8* Michigan (7:27 ET): Texas A&M has treated me incredibly well in this Tournament as I've cashed in on both of their games. First was a spot as a small favorite against a Providence team I simply didn't have a ton of respect for. After a slow start to that game, the Aggies roared back by controlling the boards and playing suffocating defense (won 73-69). It was a similar story in Rd 2 when I took them plus 6.5 points against North Carolina, a game they trailed early, but then quickly took control of and never looked back. In fact, this was a much bigger beatdown as they were up 14 at half and kept pouring it on after that, leading by 20+ for most of the second half. This is an athletic team that dominated their first two opponents on the inside, just like I thought they would. Problem is, I feel they'll meet their match in Michigan. Lay the points. 

The set up here is eerily reminiscent of that Providence-A&M matchup I spoke of at the outstet. Only this time the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot." Whereas A&M was the short favorite lacking in respect vs. Providence, here we have a situation where the majority of bettors are ON them as a short dog. Yes, they still have their "fearsome twosome" of Davis and Williams, who combined to go 10 for 12 from the floor against UNC. But what Michigan has that UNC didn't is outside shooters. The Tar Heels basically shot themselves out of that second round matchup, going 6 for 31 from three-point range. Trust me when I say that we won't be seeing that poor shooting here from the Wolverines. They shoot better than 36% for the year from 3-pt range. 

Remember; Michigan hasn't lost since February 6th. They bring an 11-game win streak into the Sweet 16 and it's actually been less about their shooters and more about defense. Did you know the Wolverines rank 3rd in the country in defensive efficiency? Only twice during the current win streak have they allowed more than 66 pts. They've held the last five opponents to 59.6 PPG on 38.6% shooting. Yes, it took a last second miracle to beat Houston in the Rd of 32. But let me let you in on a little secret - Houston is better than Texas A&M. Michigan hasn't even got much yet from leading scorer Moritz Wagner (just 17 pts in two games) in this tournament. No way A&M plays as well here as they did vs. North Carolina. Michigan is being underappreciated in this spot. 8* Michigan 

10* Loyola Chicago (7:07 ET): One of the most unlikely Sweet 16 matchups in recent memory (or ever?) takes place Thursday night in Atlanta as 7-seed Nevada meets 11-seed Loyola Chicago. As you might expect, it has not been a dominant path here for either side. Loyola, champions of the Missouri Valley, have won both games by two points or less (by nearly identical scores) and needed last second shots each time. Nevada, an at-large team that won the Mt West reg season crown (upset in conf tourney), has taken an even dicier path. They've trailed by double digits in the second half of both games - including down 22 to Cincinnati on Sunday. By rule, one of these teams is actually going to end up in the Elite 8 and I'm going to side w/ the one that has the clear edge in defensive efficiency, the metric I've been harping on all tournament long.

Defensive efficiency is the metric I leaned on heavily when it came to key second round calls such as Clemson over Auburn, Florida State over Xavier and Texas A&M over North Carolina. Now, going by that standard, Nevada should have been eliminated back in the Rd of 64. They've beaten Texas (#12 in def efficiency) and Cincinnati (#2). I laid off the Nevada-Cincinnati game though (spread too high) and it's obviously a good thing I did. But it bears mentioning that the Wolfpack - by a wide margin - have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team still left in the Tournament, They are 109th in that department. The next worst team is Florida State at #55. Six of the Sweet 16 teams are top 10 in defensive efficiency and 12 are in the top 30. Loyola Chicago, for the record, is 27th. In the regular season, they held opponents to 33.2% shooting from three-point range and turned them over only roughly 20% of all possessions. 

The Ramblers come into the Sweet 16 having won 19 of 20 games (only loss was by 2 at Bradley). I played them against Miami in the Rd of 64 and remember what I said in my analysis. This team beat Florida earlier in the year. They're not all defense either. They also rank third in the country in field goal percentage made (50.6%). They've also connected on 39% of their three-point attempts in this Tournament. Yes, both wins were close, but they never trailed in the manner Nevada did in both of its games. The Wolfpack looked like an inferior side against Texas (needed OT) and Cincy before miracle comebacks. Trailing by double digits in B2B games is not a sign of an Elite 8 team. 10* Loyola Chicago

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): For most of this season, the Lightning have been considered the best team in the league. That line of thinking is certainly justified by the fact they have the second most points (104) and best goal differential (+59). But Boston, who recently beat them, is now hot on Tampa Bay's heels and even an Atlantic Division title is not guaranteed right now. Tonight, the Lightning have a chance to increase their division lead to six points and possibly tie Nashville (top team in the Western Conference) for most points in the league. Even on the road, it looks to be a very favorable matchup on paper w/ an Islanders team that ultimately won't make the playoffs because they are dead last in the league in goals allowed. 

Since being shutout by Boston on St. Patrick's Day, the Lightning have bounced back w/ a pair of wins over Edmonton and Toronto. Both were at home and they resumed their typical level of scoring w/ a combined seven goals in the two wins. But road play has been a major reason why the Lightning have been "out in front of the pack" for so much of this season. They are 23-11-2 away from home this year and outscoring teams by almost a full goal per game at their own rinks. That's easily the best scoring margin of any team on the road this year and really only Nashville can claim a comparable record. No team can touch the Lightning's average of 3.5 goals per game on the road. They are #1 overall in the league in goals per game and as I said earlier, the Islanders are dead last in goals allowed. In other words, I expect the visitors to score early and often tonight.

While not officially eliminated from contention, the Isles have no realistic path to the playoffs at this point. They are last in the Metro, needing to jump numerous teams, and face a 10-pt deficit w/ only nine games to go. Though they did just beat the Penguins (4-1) here at home Tuesday night, the Isles have done themselves no favors w/ a 2-7-4 stretch dating back to mid-February. I simply cannot see them beating Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay consecutively. We saw what TB can do when they stormed back from a 3-1 deficit against Toronto Tuesday. The Islanders - on average - give up some of the highest shot totals in the league. This is a great matchup for TB as goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 1.73 GAA and .952 save percentage in six career regular season starts vs. NY. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Under Ducks/Flames (9:35 ET): This is an incredibly important game for both sides as they try and work their way into the top eight in the Western Conference. Anaheim currently occupies that eighth and final playoff spot, but it's a precarious hold as Dallas and St. Louis are each within three points of them. A win here though and the Ducks would move past the Kings for third place in the Pacific Division, a spot which guarantees you a playoff berth. Meanwhile, Calgary's playoff hopes are looking to be on "life support." They've fallen a bit behind the pack (trail Anaheim by six points) and are 11th in the Western Conference standings, meaning they need to jump at least three teams. Their -18 YTD goal differential does not exactly bode well for their future either.  

But I'm not making a play on the side for this one. They've lost eight of 11, including three straight, but you have to think the Flames are going to come in highly motivated tonight. After all, they were just beaten by lowly Arizona (5-2, on the road) Monday night. It was their third consecutive game allowing at least four goals and they've also allowed that many each of the last four times they have lost. A 3-14 head to head record w/ Anaheim is another reason not to like Calgary here, but you have to take into account than the Ducks are a subpar team on the road. They've won their last three games, but all three wins were at home. Over the last month, they've played only three road games and totaled just three goals in them (all losses). 

Despite an average of more than 40 shots per game, Calgary has averaged just 1.8 goals its last five contests. Many times, I might then forecast some sort of offensive explosion is forthcoming. But not here. The Flames only rank 25th in the league in goals per game to begin with and Anaheim ranks 5th in goals allowed. All three head to head meetings this season between these two have stayed Under the total. I see this one following suit as the Ducks are off B2B four-goal games, meaning they're more likely to regress than Calgary is to improve on the offensive end. The Ducks are also 23-12 Under this season, in road games, when the total is 5.5. The Under is also 14-7 in goaltender John Gibson's 21 road starts. I have to think Calgary G Mike Smith is set to perform better as well. 10* Under Ducks/Flames  

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): It seems as if the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference are set. But, I wouldn't feel too comfortable quite yet if I was Milwaukee. The Bucks do have a 5.5 game cushion over Detroit for the 8th and final playoff spot, but this is a team that has been outscored over the course of the season and has been somewhat of a disaster at the betting window of late. They're just 2-10 ATS the L12 games and I played against them Monday as a short road dog in Cleveland (they lost 124-117). Tonight, they are back home, hosting a team in a similar position. The Clippers are also 37-33 SU (same record as Bucks), but by virtue of playing in the Western Conference, they're by no means guaranteed a playoff spot (currently in 10th place). As I'll get into in a bit, the schedule is unkind to LA here. Lay the points. 

The Clips missed a chance to make up some ground in the playoff chase last night as they lost 123-109 in Minnesota. That was their fourth straight loss, all of them coming to teams in the Western Conference's top eight. The last three games have seen them allow an average of 122 PPG. HC Doc Rivers called last night's effort "the most disappointing of the season" and even removed all of his starters w/ 7:22 left in the game. Really, considering an 8-15 start to the season and the fact they dealt Blake Griffin, it's pretty shocking that the Clippers are still even in playoff contention. (Not to mention, all the injuries they have sustained). But it appears as if the "end may be near" as five of the next six games are on the road (not even counting last night). Nine of the last 12 games are also against teams fighting for a playoff spot. This is not only the second game of a back to back, but the Clippers' third game in four nights and fifth in the last seven.

Meanwhile, this will only be the Bucks' third game in the last seven days, so that's a pretty clear edge. Plus they are at home where their record for the season is 22-14 SU. Injuries at the point guard position have hurt the Bucks - literally and figuratively - over the last month, but Brandon Jennings (now working on a second 10-day contract) has begun to fill in nicely. This one ultimately boils down to the schedule though as the Clippers are just 3-9 SU playing w/o rest this season. 10* Milwaukee

8* Buffalo (7:05 ET): While roughly two-thirds of the league continues to compete either to get into or strengthen their position for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the respective fate of these two clubs has long been known and has nothing to do w/ the postseason. Buffalo and Arizona, basically all season long, have been the worst teams in their respective conferences. They both come into Wednesday night as two of the four teams in the league officially eliminated from playoff contention. Buffalo has the fewest points (58) and also the worst goal differential (-64), so you can make the case that they are the worst team in the league. But even though Arizona has played better of late (6-3-1 L10), they are only one point in front of the Sabres. The game is in Buffalo and I actually see some value here in this battle of also-rans. 

Tonight is the start of a six-game road trip for the Coyotes, who will travel through the Southeastern U.S. (Carolina, Florida, Tampa Bay) before ending up back West (LA, Vegas). Though they have played better of late, it's difficult for me to envision this trip going well. For the year, the 'Yotes are only 9-17-7 on the road and they're getting outscored by over a full goal per game. The recent stretch of games has seen them play at home quite a bit as their only three road games over the last month came at Edmonton, Vancouver and Colorado. They lost two of those, only beating the Canucks, who not coincidentally are tied w/ them for last in the Pacific Division right now. Monday's 5-2 win over Calgary (at home) looks nice on paper, but came in spite of a 44-30 deficit in shots on goal. Plus, that amt of scoring from Arizona is very atypical considering they rank 30th in the league in goals per game. They have been outshot in five of the last six games.

Meanwhile, Buffalo was shutout on Monday, here at home. But that came against a great Nashville team. Tonight marks the Sabres' fifth straight game at home, so they have an edge there. (They did beat Chicago 5-3 on Saturday). Believe it or not, but Monday was only the third time since December 1st that the Sabres had been shutout. Leading scorer Jack Eichel is back, so that's a boost. My read here boils down to this is an incredibly cheap price to go against a bad Arizona team on the road. 8* Buffalo 

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): This is a huge game for the Cavaliers, who have a chance to beat the top team in the East. Yes, there's the issue that they're still short-handed, but as long as LeBron James is out there, they have a chance to win any game. Plus, Kevin Love did return Monday when the team beat the Bucks 124-117 here at home. I can then look past some "supporting pieces" being out as the schedule is unkind to Toronto here. They are playing in the second game of a back to back (beat Orlando 93-86 last night, on the road) and their fifth game in the last seven nights. That can really take its toll on a team, even one that has won 12 of its last 13 games. This is a predictable spot for them to "slip up." Take Cleveland.

The Cavs will definitely be w/o Kyle Korver, who is back w/ his family after his brother suddenly passed away (my condolences). Tristan Thompson, Larry Nance Jr and Rodney Hood are also all listed as questionable. Of those three, Nance is the least likely to play. It's sounding like there is a chance we could see either Thompson or Hood. We will see James, who is coming off a monster game Monday night where he went for 40-12-10 while making 16 of 29 field goal attempts. He is averaging a triple double over the L18 games. Love scored 18 pts in his return and it certainly didn't appear the Cavs missed HC Tye Lue, who remains out w/ an illness. This is a huge revenge game for Cleveland, who was dealt its worst loss of the season by the Raptors, back on January 11th - up in Toronto - 133-99 as 2.5-pt favorites. As you can tell, there's been a huge shift by the oddsmakers since that time. 

Toronto seems well on its way to earning homecourt advantage in the Eastern Conference (five-game lead over Boston, 11.5 game lead over Cleveland). They have pretty clearly been the best team in the East all season long, which is confirmed by a point differential (+8.6 per game) that is a full point better than Golden State. But this game is on the road, not at home where they are 29-6 SU this season. Furthermore, as alluded to earlier, the schedule is not kind to them for this national TV showdown. Orlando to Cleveland is a worse back to back than normal and this will be a third game in four nights as well as fifth in seven. Leading scorer DeMar DeRozan has been battling a thigh bruise (sat out last night) and is not 100%. Revenge, the schedule and desperation add up to the Cavaliers being a great play tonight on ESPN. 8* Cleveland

8* Louisville (9:00 ET): You can't underestimate the importance of homecourt advantage in the NIT. Last night, I rode w/ Utah, who demolished LSU in Salt Lake City. That being said, three of the top four seeds in this tournament are OUT, one of them Baylor at the hands of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are back in action tonight, again on the road, in quarterfinal action at Louisville. Needless to say, this has been quite the tumultuous season on the L'ville campus, starting w/ Rick Pitino resigning in disgrace. But the Cardinals' players can still salvage some semblance of pride by winning the NIT and I have them advancing to the Final Four next week in MSG w/ a comfortable win tonight. Lay the points. 

Louisville, the #2 seed in Region 2, has won both of its NIT games by double digits. Their first victim was Northern Kentucky (reg season champs out of the Horizon League), 66-58 as 7.5-pt chalk. Then came an 84-68 win over Middle Tennessee (reg season champs in C-USA) as 4.5-pt chalk. Now you can make the arguement that both of those teams were battling some disappointment over getting bounced from their respective conference tourneys. But Middle Tennessee did win still win its first NIT game and I might argue that they are a better team that Mississippi State is. Something to note is Louisville easily beat Middle Tennessee despite leading scorer Deng Adel not scoring a single point - with just one shot attempt - in 21 minutes of action. The team still went on to make 11 three-pointers. 

Mississippi State beat Baylor on a last second three-pointer Sunday, after blowing all of a 14-pt halftime advantage. Three-point shooting was the real difference in that game as the Bulldogs went 13 of 22 from behind the arc while the Bears were a paltry 3 of 12. Remember though; the three-point line has been extended for NIT play (experimentation!). I'd be a little leery of MSU being able to outshoot a second straight opponent so decisively again, especially in another road game. That win over Baylor was only the third "true" road win of the season for the Bulldogs. Thus I can't see them turning the same trick twice in a three-day span. Furthermore, Louisville has covered five of its last six as a home favorite of -3.5 to -6. 8* Louisville

10* Under Clippers/T'wolves (8:05 ET): All of a sudden, this has become somewhat of a "do or die" type game in the Western Conference playoff picture. It wasn't that long ago that Minnesota making the playoffs was considered a mere formality, but it seems as if everyone else (particularly Portland and Utah) have gotten hot at the right time and that has coincided w/ a dip from the T'wolves, who are still w/o their best player, Jimmy Butler. (Butler's absence completely coincides w/ the dip). They now find themselves in 8th place in the West, only two games in front of the 9th place Clippers. So a lot is on the line here and I expect a more "playoff-like" intensity here, meaning better defense and less scoring. Take the Under. 

I fell for the Clippers on Sunday night as they were actually favored against the red-hot Blazers. That was a mistake as LA was outclassed at home and would lose by a score of 122-109. It was the team's third loss in a row, although the teams that beat them were: Houston, OKC and Portland, not exactly an easy group of teams to walk away w/ a win against. The Clips have now given up 120+ pts in B2B games and have to face a top 5 team in offensive efficiency. But Minnesota has been a little limited on that end w/o Butler, even though they did just score 120 in their own loss to Houston on Sunday (here at home). 

So the Clippers have gone Over in B2B games and Minnesota three straight. These two teams have met three times before this season and all three games have gone Over the total. But tonight's O/U line is - by far - the highest to date. The last meeting took place back in January and saw the Clippers (were at home) shoot a blistering 56 percent from the field. They still lost, mind you, 126-118 as the T'wolves attempted 39 free throws and made 33. I expect all of these numbers to come down tonight. Plus, Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague combined for 70 pts for Minnesota in that last meeting. That's unlikely to happen again either. This is a pretty high O/U line from both teams perspective as neither's games average anywhere close to what the oddsmakers' number is currently set at. 10* Under Clippers/T'wolves

8* Carolina (7:05 ET): This is a seemingly meaningless game in the grand scheme of things (neither team has much of a shot at making the playoffs), so why play? Well, I look for the home side to be motivated here as they are trying to finish the season w/ a winning record in Raleigh, plus their playoff chances are at least a little more realistic compared to tonight's visitor. Also, the situation seems to favor the Hurricanes as well w/ Edmonton having to play a third straight road game out East, in a four-day span no less. Carolina's upcoming schedule is actually somewhat favorable, so they're not necessarily dead yet. 

Both of these teams are pretty frustrating to handicap and should probably be better. Both should be considered among the league's biggest disappointments for 2017-18, Edmonton moreso. What's frustrating about Carolina is that they consistently outshoot their opponents, yet more often than not, still come out on the losing end. Take the last five games for example. The 'Canes have averaged 36.2 shots on goal while giving up only 27.4. Yet, they are only 2-3 SU during that stretch and allowing 4.2 goals per game. That just shouldn't be the case. They outshot the Islanders 39-29 on Sunday en route to picking up a 4-3 road win. Something that may work in Carolina's favor here is that Edmonton is only 23rd in the league in scoring and dead last on the power play. 

Carolina actually enjoys the largest differential in shots per game in the entire league! So it's pretty unforgiveable that they're likely not going to make the playoffs, even w/ a late-season charge. It mostly falls on their goaltending, which has posted the worst collective save percentage in the league at .892. That's very bad. But Edmonton isn't much better (.900, tied for 2nd worst), which is also the reason they haven't had the kind of success they had envisioned. That league-worst power play also betrayed them yet again in Sunday's 3-1 loss at Tampa Bay as they were 0 for 5 w/ the man advantage. They're now 0 for the last 10. Carolina won the season's first meeting in Edmonton, 5-3, ironically despite being outshot 51-21! Something I'm going to predict here is that Oilers' goalie Cam Talbot has an "off-night." Curiously, he's been a lot better of late, but I feel regression is in the cards. 8* Carolina

10* Detroit (10:05 ET): The Pistons are rapidly running out of time to make any late charge for the playoffs. With only 13 games to play, they trail 8th place Miami by 6.5 games, so the likelihood of them making it is really somewhere between "slim" and "none." It wasn't supposed to be this way, however. Not after the team went "all in" on a mid-season trade to bring in Blake Griffin. Shockingly, that is when things turned South. Now, it's not fair to place all the blame on Griffin as the injury to PG Reggie Jackson was the real killer here. But still, this team has failed terribly in the oddsmakers' eyes, going a miserable 6-20 ATS its last 26 games after a 13-point loss at Portland Saturday night. Fortunately though, tonight they'll be running into one of the worst teams in the league. I'll lay a short number, even on the road.

Give Sacramento some credit as they have gone 8-2 ATS the L10 games, even winning five of them straight up. They're probably out of the discussion for "worst team in the league" - at least for the time being - as Phoenix and Memphis are both playing so unfathomably bad right now that the dubious dishonor couldn't go to anyone else. It should be pointed out though that all five of the Kings' recent victories have been by six points or less. They still sport the league's second worst YTD point differential (ahead of only Phoenix). Saturday night they fell 103-97 in Utah, closer than expected yes, as it was the Kings' fifth game in the last seven days. They were fortunate in that the spread was huge, but that's not the case here against a team desperate for a win that won't be "taking the night off." 

Detroit won by exactly nine, 108-99, over Sacramento in the first meeting of the year. They were nine-point home favorites. Now the Pistons have been very bad on the road in 2018, losing their last 12 as well as 17 of the last 18 dating back to December 15th. The one win did come over Brooklyn and you have to think that this is at least a comparable situation to this one. Rarely do you have to lay so few points to go against Sacramento. That's what this play is all about as I believe the Pistons are going to treat this as a "must-win" game, especially after HC Stan Van Gundy was fined for ripping the officiating after the loss to Portland. Sacramento is 29th in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Ouch. 10* Detroit

8* Utah (9:00 ET): The Pac 12 had a very brief and disastrous run in the NCAA Tournament (all three teams lost 1st game, two of them in the "first four"), but the conference is well represented here in the NIT w/ five teams, all of whom WON their first round games! Now Oregon did bow out of the tournament yday, but that still leaves four schools, all of whom are in action tonight. Three are the higher seed and thus host their respective quarterfinal matchups, one of them being Utah. The Utes won their 1st rd NIT matchup, 69-59 over Cal Davis, but failed to cover the 12-pt spread. LSU won and covered its 1st round matchup, beating in-state "rival" LA Lafayette 84-76 as 3.5-pt chalk. 

The homecourt advantage is something you really have to take into account when handicapping the NIT. Now, two home teams did lose quarterfinal matchups over the weekend. But I don't see that happening here as the Utes are 14-3 SU in Salt Lake City, outscoring the opposition by 12.5 points per game. Visiting teams shoot only 38.8% here. In fact, going back to the Pac 12 Tournament, the Utes have held three straight opponents below 40% shooting. Only one of their previous 10 opponents have shot better than 43.1% from the field. I've been stressing the importance of high-level defensive play in my NCAA Tournament picks, which have obviously been quite successful, and the same applies here to the NIT. 

Interestingly, Utah's 1st round opponent (Cal Davis) is a better defensive team than LSU. That may explain why that game was a little closer than expected. There are also the rule changes to this year's NIT as the teams are playing four 10-minute quarters as opposed to two 20-minute halves. The three-point line has also been extended and the free throw lane widened. Utes HC Larry Krystowiak was also ejected from the game vs. UC Davis as his team found itself down by as many as 11 at one point. But then they held the Aggies to 1 of 11 shooting down the stretch. LSU simply overwhelmed Louisiana in its first round game Wednesday, shooting 52% from the floor, but that won't happen again tonight. The Tigers have just three "true" road wins all season, the last one coming in early January. When it comes to defending a shorter three-point distance, Utah already had a clear advantage, thus I'll lay the short number w/o hesitation. 8* Utah

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I talk it about every day (it seems!), but that's because every game really is important in the Western Conference. You've got 11 teams fighting for eight playoff spots and only three - Nashville, Winnipeg and Vegas - feel like "safe" bets to make it. Currently, Minnesota is third in the Central (meaning they'd be in) w/ 89 pts. Tonight, the Wild host the Kings, who are not playing well and have dropped to fourth in the Pacific. LA enters the day tied w/ Dallas for the second of two Wild Card spots w/ 84 points. So two points will go a long way here. I made the mistake of playing the Kings Saturday night as they were shut out, at home, 3-0 by New Jersey. While they've alternated wins and losses this entire month, I look for that pattern to end tonight as they are facing a team w/ a league-low six regulation losses at home this year. 

Minnesota is off a pair of road wins, one that was to expected and the other not so much. Beating Arizona 3-1 on Saturday night was the former while a 4-2 win in Vegas on Friday was the latter. As a result, the Wild have to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now as they return to the XL Center where they are 24-6-6 this season. One of those six regulation losses came the last time they were here, 5-1 to Colorado on March 13th. So the players should be highly motivated tonight. There is nothing phony about this team's home record either as they are outscoring visitors by over a full goal per game here. Only six teams in the entire league can claim that and the Wild have the third best home scoring differential, trailing only Winnipeg and Colorado.

Minnesota has outshot its last five opponents. The Kings happened to outshoot New Jersey Saturday night, 38-28, but it was all for naught as they couldn't score a goal. Going 0 for 6 on the power play was an absolute killer. While the team still ranks highly in fewest goals allowed (2nd) and on the penalty kill (2nd), you obviously can't win if you don't score. Bad news for Kings fans is that the team is only 4-7 SU this season after being held to 1 or 0 goals in its previous game. They are also a surprisingly bad 12-22 against teams w/ winning records. They are just 1-2 after a shutout loss w/ the one win coming against Arizona. 8* Minnesota

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): Generally speaking, there have been a lot more "fades" than "takes" on this end when it comes to LeBron James and the Cavaliers this season. The "proof is in the pudding" as this team has turned in a historically bad ATS record so far, currently sitting at 22-46-1, easily a league-worst (next worst is OKC at 30-41-1). It's not just the pointspread that's been giving Cleveland trouble, however. Since the All-Star Break, they are just 6-6 straight up and the wins have come over the likes of Memphis, Brooklyn, Detroit, Denver, Phoenix and Chicago. With the exception of Denver, all of those wins have come against teams that are blatantly tanking. LeBron really bailed out his "skeleton crew" supporting cast Saturday night as he went for 33-13-12 in another virtuoso performance. The Cavs beat the Bulls 114-109, but did not cover the 6.5-pt spread. Tonight, it's a small number at home facing Milwaukee. Can the three-time defending Eastern Conference champs finally cash in? I think "yes!"

There's no problems w/ Cleveland's offense. The team averages 110.3 points per game and ranks fifth in efficiency. However, it is the defensive end that will likely betray this team. There, they rank a shockingly bad 28th in efficiency. I'm a little surprised that this hasn't been more of an "Over team," especially here at home where they give up more PPG than they do on the road. Still though, this is LeBron James laying basically one possession at home. Earlier in the season, such a line would be reserved for only a visit from a top tier team from the West (maybe Boston?). Not the East's seventh best team.

This will be Cleveland's 1st home game since March 5th. They lost three players - Larry Nance, Jr, Cedi Osman and Rodney Hood - to injury during the two-week road trip, plus Kyle Korver to a family emergency. Plus, HC Tye Lue has been ill. Only eight or nine players were active Saturday. (Don't forget both Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are out as well). Yet, against the odds, I'll still "hitch my wagon" to LeBron here. The Bucks have covered only two of their last 11 games overall and have been outscored over the course of this season. They have a losing road record while the Cavs are 22-11 SU at Quicken Loans Arena. 8* Cleveland 

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Portland won its 12th game in a row last night (longest active win streak in the NBA), beating Detroit 100-87. Yet they come into tonight as a slight underdog. However, it's not too difficult to understand why. Last night's game was at home while tonight's is on the road. At home, the Blazers are 25-11 SU, but on the road they're just 18-15. They're also w/o rest, a scenario that has seen them be little better than a 50/50 proposition at the pay window this season (6-5 ATS). Also, might now be the time to start entertaining the notion that the Blazers are slightly overrated? In terms of point differential, they're only sixth in the West and in net efficiency, they're seventh. So I believe its fair to say that they may have peaked. Sharp money appears to have moved this number overnight and I'm inclined to agree! 

The Clippers are just trying to make the playoffs. Now, halfway through the season, that previous sentence might have been up for debate. Hit hard by injuries, the team decided to deal away Blake Griffin to Detroit and it was just widely assumed that the Clips would "phone it in" the rest of the way. That hasn't happened though. They enter Sunday trailing New Orleans by 1.5 games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Though they have dropped B2B games, those were at Houston and Oklahoma City and both were close. I thought they actually played really well vs. the Thunder Friday night, save for 23 turnovers. 

Statistically speaking, these teams are not far apart when you measure their respective seasons as a whole. Sure, Portland is the hot team right now, but this reminds me a bit of New Orleans last week, who peaked as high as fourth in the conference standings, despite an inferior point differential/net efficiency compared to many of their brethren. Sure enough, the Pelicans have since lost two in a row. We might be about to see something similar w/ Portland, who not only has this game to worry about, but lookaheads to home dates vs. Houston and Boston up next. I just feel Portland has reached its peak in terms of value (covered 9 straight times) and now its time to go against. The situation is ideal (no rest, on the road) and it should be pointed out they've been playing a lot of short-handed teams during this win streak. 10* LA Clippers

8* West Virginia (9:40 ET): I smell a rout cooking here as West Virginia should roll 13-seed Marshall. Granted, I predicted that Marshall would get blown out in its first round game against Wichita State, and not only did that not happen, the Thundering Herd obviously pulled the outright upset, 81-75 as 13.5-pt dogs. Tip your cap to Dan D'Antoni's (brother of Mike) squad though as they looked every bit the better team down the stretch. But note I made a big mistake in handicapping that game as Wichita State came in outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. All tournament long, I've been harping on that metric and for one game I downplayed it and got burned. Maybe I overlooked it because Marshall had never won a NCAA Tourney game before in its history or maybe it was because they only rank 126th themselves in that department. But now let's see how they fare against Bob Huggins and "Press Virginia." My call is that this game won't go well for the underdog. Lay the points. 

This is obviously a battle of in-state schools, so spirits should be high. But emotion alone will not be nearly enough for the Thundering Herd to pull another upset here. I'm concerned that leading scorer Jon Elmore played the full 40 minutes vs. Wichita State and now has to go up against perhaps the most frenetic pressure defense in the land (w/ just one day in between games). Also, Marshall was down seven midway through the second half on Friday and appeared headed for an exit. That is when Elmore got hot though and Wichita State simply fell apart. That won't happen w/ WVU though as the Mountaineers come into this game ranked 43rd in defensive efficiency. That's far lower than usual for a Huggins-coached team, but still much better than Wichita State. 

Odds are not in Marshall's favor here. Teams seeded 13 or lower are just 9-47 SU in the Round of 32, including Buffalo's loss to Kentucky yday (that was my *10* Game of the Week!). We know West Virginia is going to press and while Marshall was careful w/ the basketball vs. Wichita State, this is a whole different animal that they are facing here. WVU rolled Murray State in Round 1, 85-68, despite making only four three-pointers the entire game. Murray State's leading scorer Jonathan Stark went 1 for 12 from the field, an ominous sign here for Elmore. Marshall simply isn't good enough defensively to hang w/ WVU, let alone come close to pulling another upset. 8* West Virginia

8* Florida State (8:40 ET): There has yet to be any real "upset" in the West region where the #3 seed Michigan and #4 seed Gonzaga have already moved onto the Sweet 16. The lone instance of a lower-seeded team even winning a game in this region came late Friday night w/ Florida State dismantling Missouri, but even then, the ninth-seeded Seminoles went off as the betting favorite in that particular matchup. Now the Noles are in an underdog role against top seed Xavier and I see the signs of a "legit" upset being pulled here. Yes, Virginia suffered the all-time embarrassing upset on Friday, but the Musketeers came into the tournament - easily - the weakest 1-seed on paper. I don't even have them rated as a top 10 team and taking the points here seems like a no-brainer to me. 

Whomever wins this game will very likely be the lowest rated team in defensive efficiency going into the Sweet 16. The only three teams that are lower than these two in that department are: Nevada, Marshall and UMBC, all heavy underdogs to go home after Sunday. Xavier only being #60 in the country in defensive efficiency makes them appear particularly vulnerable as a #1 seed and especially laying points to a comparable foe in this area. Now the Musketeers did score over 100 pts and win by 19 on Friday over 16-seed Texas Southern. But they were also facing a team that was playing for the second time in three nights and probably just "happy to be there." This will be a big step up in class and I'm concerned this team leans far too heavily on leading scorer Trevon Blueitt. It's unlikely they get a career-high 24 pts from Kerem Kanter again like they did vs. TX Southern. I also don't see the team shooting 11 of 24 from three-point range again as they did Friday night. 

Florida State now appears likely to be w/o their leading scorer Terance Mann here after he strained his groin in the win over Missouri. That's a shame, but not something the Seminoles can't overcome. I say this because they got 42 of their 67 points from the bench in the highly impressive Round of 64 triumph. In what was supposed to be an "even battle," the Noles dominated Mizzou from the start, taking a 22-point lead into halftime and allowing just 32.7% shooting for the game. This is the ACC's third highest scoring team (81.8 PPG) and they've got legit revenge for an upset suffered in LY's Tournament when they, as a 7.5-pt favorite, fell to Xavier 91-66. Look for a much closer game this time around. 8* Florida State

8* Clemson (7:10 ET): We have a seemingly "even" 4 vs. 5 matchup here w/ the oddsmakers giving a slight lean to Auburn. However, after defeating a tough 12-seed New Mexico State (a very trendy upset pick that did NOT come to fruition) in Round 1, I believe Clemson is set to advance here. The Tigers are top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency and if you've been following my tournament selections, then you already know that's the metric I lean on the most. Note: Auburn isn't too shabby in that department either, ranking 32nd. But that's not top 10 and it's not as if "those Tigers" were overly impressive in the Rd of 64 as they beat Charleston by only four points on what was a bad shooting night. Just like on the football field, look for defense to be the difference maker in a Clemson vs. Auburn matchup. 

Conversely, Clemson shot the ball very well in a 79-68 victory Friday night. They were a blistering 55.9 percent from the field and that came against a New Mexico State team that was also top 20 in the country in defensive efficiency. The Tigers' guards routinely beat the NMSU pressure and that resulted in a double digit lead by halftime. While only 8-6 SU since the loss of Dante Grantham, perhaps that had more to do w/ the rugged ACC and less w/ the Tigers themselves. They have really feasted on non-conference competition this year, going 12-1 SU (8-2 ATS) and shot 55% or better four times. In ACC play, they topped 50% only one time. But Shelton Mitchell appears ready to "pick up the slack" as he scored a season-high 23 points on Friday.

Auburn has also had to cope w/ a key injury as they lost Anfernee McLemore midway through the season. Like Clemson w/o Grantham, they initially struggled. I worry about a team that is somewhat limited offensively to begin with (188th on 2-pt field goals for the season) now facing a much better defensive team in the second round. While they did hit multiple contested three-point shots late, Auburn was only 5 of 21 from behind the arc vs. Charleston, plus they benefited from having the wrong FT shooter (i.e. a much better one) sent to the line at a critical moment. Clemson also isn't going to turn the ball over as much as Charleston did. 8* Clemson

10* Texas A&M (5:15 ET): There has yet to be any real "upset" in the West region where the #3 seed Michigan and #4 seed Gonzaga have already moved onto the Sweet 16. The lone instance of a lower-seeded team even winning a game in this region came late Friday night w/ Florida State dismantling Missouri, but even then, the ninth-seeded Seminoles went off as the betting favorite in that particular matchup. The top two seeds in the region are back in action today and in the case of the #2 vs. #7 seed matchup, I do see plenty of upset potential as North Carolina takes on Texas A&M. The Aggies have the higher defensive efficiency rating coming into this one, as they rank 12th while UNC is just 35th. Take the points. 

A&M got off to a somewhat rough start in its first round game vs. Providence (didn't score first field goal until 7:17 into the game!), yet was able to quickly recover and take the lead by halftime. They would go up by as many as 11 pts in the 2H, including having that lead w/ just 31 seconds remaining. Providence made a couple three-pointers in the closing seconds to make the final score a bit closer, but make no mistake, the Aggies were the better team that day (I had 'em!). A big reason I had the Aggies Friday afternoon was their size advantage over the Friars. They'll enjoy a similar advantage here against the Tar Heels, believe it or not. I wasn't kidding in my analysis for Friday when I said A&M had one of the most talented frontcourts in the country. The tallest player in UNC's starting lineup is 6'8". A&M has two, often three, players taller than that on the floor at any given time. 

North Carolina beat Lipscomb 84-66 on Friday, but only outscored the Bisons by single digits in each half. It will obviously be a big step up in class here after facing a 15-seed, and one that had NEVER played a NCAA Tournament game to boot. A&M dominated Providence on the glass (outrebounded them 44-26) w/ the talented duo of Robert Williams and Tyler Davis combining for 29 of those rebounds. North Carolina is going to have problems w/ those two, mark my words. North Carolina is balanced, but unlikely to get 18 points against from Kenny Williams like they did vs. Lipscomb. With an edge in height and on defense, Texas A&M is more than capable of pulling this upset. Remember they were ranked very high at one point and beat West Virginia early in the season by 23 pts. North Carolina struggles to defend the three-point line. 10* Texas A&M

8* Colorado (3:05 ET): The Western Conference playoff race just keeps getting tighter by the day as six teams battling for the final three spots are separated by just four points entering play on Sunday. Now one of those final three spots has to go to whomever finishes in the third place in the Pacific Division. So, for Colorado, the Wild Card is looking like the only real entry poing into the playoffs. The third place team in the Central, Minnesota, has five more points than the Avs, a gap which can be made up but would be difficult. Right now, Colorado is one of four teams w/ 84 points. The two Wild Cards would be decided between them, Dallas and whoever loses the third place tiebreak in the Pacific (LA or Anaheim) as those are the teams w/ 84 pts. St. Louis and Calgary lurk close behind w/ 81 and 80 pts respectively.

This afternoon, the Avs draw Detroit at home. This is the definition of "must-win." The Red Wings aren't good as their 63 points are tied for the second fewest in the Eastern Conference. Coming into the season, I had very "low hopes" for this club seeing as they were off a second-to-last place finish in the Atlantic in 2016-17 that could have actually been a lot worse, if not for a fortunate 9-0 record in shootouts. They're actually 4-1 in shootouts this season, but it hasn't mattered as they find themselves in the same spot. They are bottom five in the league in scoring as well as bottom 10 in goals allowed, power play and penalty killing. Really, there's nothing to like about them and, oh by the way, did I mention they come into this game on a NINE-game losing streak? Today marks their third road game in four nights. 

Back in the 90's, this was actually a big rivalry game, but now the teams are in different conferences. Colorado was - by far - the worst team in the league last season, but has improved exponentially in 2017-18. Really, what has happened in Vegas has totally overshadowed this remarkable turnaround, which has been fueled by the Avs' tremendous 24-9-2 home record. While Colorado has dropped four of its last 10 games overall, three of those losses have come either in OT. The other was Friday night, here at home, vs. Nashville. Despite that loss, however, the Avs are 14-2-1 their last 17 games. 8* Colorado

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Both teams played last night, but this is a much worse spot for Dallas as not only did they blow a lead and lose in overtime, but they've got to travel back from Canada and play on the road yet again. Brooklyn lost close in Philadelphia, 120-116, covering the spread as 8.5-pt pups. But while the Mavericks left Toronto w/ the cash, they have to be incredibly disappointed they didn't win outright as they led the heavily favored Raptors (who have only lost five home games all year) before wilting late and losing in OT. Dallas has just eight road wins all year, thus it's difficult to trust them as such a short dog, even against a fellow "also-ran." Lay the points. 

Neither side has performed very well w/o rest this season. Dallas is 3-9 SU in that situation while Brooklyn is 3-10. However, the Nets are at least 9-4 ATS. Now that obviously reflects that they're typically GETTING points in this spot, not laying them as they are here. But they also rarely have drawn an opponent even more weary when in the situation. Brooklyn, like Dallas, played well last night. They led by as many as 13 pts in the first half and the game was tied w/ under three minutes remaining. The Nets are obviously more competitive at home and while it's rare that they are favored, it should speak volumes when they are. They did win in Dallas back in November, 109-104 as 5.5-pt dogs. 

Dallas got "behind the 8-ball" rather quickly this season and never recovered. They're one of four teams in the Western Conference already eliminated from playoff contention. Of those four (also includes Sacramento, Memphis and Phoenix), they are pretty clearly the "best," but that's a case of "damning w/ faint praise" as I feel the other three are probably the worst three teams in the league right now. They aren't good on the road, at all, as their 8-25 SU record clearly indicates. Also, they are just 9-16 SU and ATS when facing teams that have losing records. While both teams are in the second game of a back to back, clearly the situation favors Brooklyn being at home. Dallas' loss last night was probably the more "painful" of the two as well, considering they led by 10 w/ just eight minutes to go in regulation. 10* Brooklyn

8* Washington (7:05 ET): This is the third meeting in 2018 between these two teams and so far the road team has gone 2-0, straight up and against the spread. Back on February 5th, the Wizards went into Indiana and won as four-point favorites, 111-102. Then, just two weeks ago, they were only four-point chalk here at home and lost outright 98-95. Note that they were without John Wall for both games as they will be here for tonight's rubber match. But Indiana has its own injury issues w/ Domantas Sabonis and possibly Myles Turner out due to ankle injuries. There was a fear that Turner's injury was more serious, but it's "just" a low ankle sprain. But he's listed as questionable for tonight. Either way, I like the Wiz in this spot. 

This is a really big game for both teams. Coming into Saturday, Indiana is third in the Eastern Conference, but Cleveland, Washington and Philadelphia are all within 1.5 games of them. That quartet will likely end up matching up in two first round playoff series, so the jockeying for playoff position (and homecourt advantage) is huge. While Washington did need double overtime (and was down 20!) to a severely undermanned Celtics squad Wednesday night, I suspect they'll come out a lot more inspired tonight. As a home favorite, they've been shaky at the betting window this year, but I like the spread here. Losing twice to Indiana at home, in two weeks' time, is something I just don't see happening.

Indiana has had some issues offensively of late. They've failed to score even 100 pts in five of the past seven games, which just won't get it done in today's NBA. Washington averages 109 PPG at home. Not having Turner would leave them really thin in the frontcourt. The Pacers failed to take advantage of 20 Toronto turnovers Thursday night in a home loss where they fell apart down the stretch. It was the fourth time in the last six games they shot 43% or worse from the field. Washington didn't shoot well in the meeting two weeks ago and found itself down 10 at half. But I expect a stronger start and better result tonight. 8* Washington

10* Kentucky (5:15 ET): Well, it sure does seem if the Wildcats' half of the bracket "opened up," hasn't it? Gone is top seed Virginia thanks to a historic upset suffered last night at the hands of UMBC (first time a 16 seed ever beat a 1 seed). But prior to the Hoos bowing out in the most infamous of fashion, Coach Cal and company had to be feeling pretty good about itself. That's because the 4-seed, Arizona, also lost. So now UK is looking at a scenario where they'll only have to beat a 13-seed, then the winner of Kansas State-UMBC (9 vs. 16 seed), to get to the Elite 8. Saturday evening sees them taking on the team that took out Arizona, that being Buffalo, champions out of the MAC. I had Kentucky beating Arizona in this spot anyway and we're getting a great line here due to all the hype surrounding "Cinderella." Lay the points. 

What UMBC did to Virginia last night was an all-time shocker, but let's not forget that Buffalo beat Arizona by 21 points and looked every bit the better team Thursday night. The Bulls basically led the entire way (never trailed by more than three) and totally overwhelmed their favored counterparts w/ quickness from the guard position. Buffalo shot almost 55% for the game, taking advantage of an Arizona team that quite frankly wasn't great on the defensive end to begin with. The three-point line was also a deciding factor as Buffalo made 15 of 30 from behind the arc while Arizona went an ugly 2 of 18. But now the question comes - can Buffalo do it again? Kentucky is a lot better defensively compared to Arizona, so obviously my thinking here is a great big "no." 

Kentucky appears to be "peaking" right now as they come into the Rd of 32 having won eight of nine - both straight up and against the spread. A 5-seed, they were actually a popular pick to be upset in the first round by Davidson (Note: no 12 seeds won this year). But they overwhelmed the Wildcats, winning 78-73 in a game that wasn't necessarily as close as the final score indicates. Kentucky never trailed after the opening minutes and was up double digits going into the final minute (not to mention, at halftime as well). Davidson made a meaningless three in the closing seconds to make it a five-point game. Interesting is that Kentucky was able to win the game despite not making a single three-pointer. So while Buffalo is likely "due" to cool off here, UK is likely to be more proficient from deep. They dominated Davidson in the paint, outscoring them 36-20, and I see the same thing happening here. 10* Kentucky

8* Los Angeles (4:05 ET): It seems as if almost half the league is separated by 10 points right now w/ only a handful of teams out of playoff contention (with 12 or fewer games to go!) and even fewer having broken away from the pack. Count both the Devils and Kings among those fighting for their playoff lives right now. Los Angeles enters this Saturday afternoon tilt as one of four teams in the Western Conference tied w/ 84 points. The way things stand currently, there's only room for three of those teams to make the playoffs, but one HAS to come from the Pacific (top three in each division automatically make playoffs). So tied w/ Anaheim, the Kings REALLY need the two points today. Of course, the same could be said for New Jersey, whose 80 pts has them in eighth place in the Eastern Conference (would be 2nd Wild Card), but a win here could move them past Columbus and Philadelphia in their own division. 

The Kings have had an "up and down" March, alternating wins and losses throughout. They are off a win, 4-1 over Detroit on Thursday. To me, this is a playoff team. They have allowed the second fewest number of goals in the league and are outstanding on the penalty kill as well (3rd best). As they desperately try and find some consistency, they are fortunate in that they can lean on netminder Jonathan Quick, who comes in hot. He has a 2.14 GAA and .932 save percentage the L15 games and that's including a rare "off-night" (got pulled early) last Saturday vs. St. Louis. Quick had another off-night against these Devils back in December, allowing a season-high five goals (on just 26 shots). But the Kings are 21-9-1 SU vs. the Eastern Conference this year and I expect Quick to play much better this go around. 

While the Kings rank near the top of the league in fewest goals allowed, the Devils have been downright pedestrian in all areas this year. Now, no one expected them to be contending for a playoff spot, but everything about them has been decidedly mediocre. They are off arguably their most "impressive" win of the season, having won at Vegas by a score of 8-3. Trust me when I say they won't come anywhere close to matching that result here. Winning at both Nashville and Vegas the L2 games is pretty remarkable, but the Devils were outshot in both games, including 42-28 by Vegas. Off their best offensive game of the year, the Devils will regress here as they are facing one of the top defensive teams (and goaltenders) in the game. 8* Los Angeles

8* Alabama (12:10 ET): To most, I think Bama's 86-83 "upset" of Va Tech in Round 1 won't register as anything special. But I came away wholly impressed w/ the Crimson Tide, who were able to win a game despite allowing the Hokies to score 83 pts on 55.6% shooting. Defense is typically this team's calling card, but on Thursday night it was the offense leading the charge. The Tide shot a ridiculous 60% from the field en route to their highest scoring effort since November. However, I'm still going to lean on the fact that this team is in the top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency. They rank higher than Villanova in that area, key because I think this could end up being the ONLY time in this entire tournament that the team w/ the better defensive efficiency is getting double digits. Take the points.

Villanova obviously looked impressive Thursday night. They jumped out to a 31-8 (!) lead and it was basically over at that point. With 11:45 left in the game, and up 69-37, the top-seeded Wildcats were shooting a ridiculous 75% overall and 60% from three-point range! As impressive as all that is, remember they were facing a 16-seed (Radford) that not only had zero chance of winning, but was also playing for a second time in three nights. There's a huge jump from 16 seeds to every other team in the Tournament. So you almost have to disregard the result in a sense. (Note: That preceding sentence was obviously written before UMBC's historic upset over Virginia!). Now Villanova is obviously still very good, but I come back to the fact they rank slightly lower than 'Bama in defensive efficiency. All that win over Radford did is ensure we'd have a really nice number to grab w/ their second rd opponent.

I really came away impressed w/ the athletes on Alabama. None moreso than freshman Collin Sexton, who scored 21 of his game-high 24 pts in the second half, making six of 10 field goal attempts and 10 of 14 free throws. Might he be the best player on the floor Saturday afternoon? That's certainly something to consider. There's also Sexton's fellow freshman in the backcourt, James Petty. As a team, Alabama made 67 percent of its two-point attempts for the game. This team can both score and defend and is a huge step up from Villanova's 1st round opponent. They are certainly more than capable of keeping this game within single digits, if not pull the outright upset. 8* Alabama

8* Syracuse (9:40 ET): Similar to Nevada-Texas, this is a 1st round matchup where one side will enjoy a massive edge in defensive efficiency (I keep harping on this for good reason!). It was far from the most "aesthetically pleasing" victory for Syracuse in the "First Four," but their defense shined in a 60-56 victory where they held the Sun Devils to 40.4% shooting. Their next opponent, TCU, profiles very similar to Arizona State in that they have a rather dramatic split in offensive vs. defensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs are 8th in offensive efficiency, but only 105th on the defensive end. (Arizona State, for the record, was 19th and 125th). Syracuse is now 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency and that will again be the difference here. Take the points. 

That Syracuse defense held ASU to its lowest point total of the season - easily -as the previous low was 64. It was only the third time all year that the Sun Devils were held below 70 points. With the "vaunted" 2-3 matchup zone, I figure the Orange will give TCU similar problems. Sophomore PG Jaylen Fisher was lost for the season, remember, and the Horned Frogs are just 6-6 SU overall the L12 games w/o him. Furthermore, the Horned Frogs were just 3-10 SU vs. NCAA Tourney teams this season, including two losses each to Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas Tech. They were "one and done" in the Big 12 Tournament, getting upset by Kansas State, 66-64 as three-point favorites. In its previous two losses before that, the Frogs shot just 41 percent from the field. 

Syracuse's zone should frustrate the TCU guards. Remember that the Orange is also the tallest team in the country, not just the tournament. Conversely, the TCU defense should allow the Orange's shooters some opportunities they are usually not afforded. TCU is an atrocious 324th nationally in three-point FG% defense, allowing opponents to convert at a 38.3% clip. While Syracuse can struggle to score at times, they were able to beat a top-20 offense despite barely shooting 40% from the floor themselves and missing 10 of 23 free throw attempts. I think they'll be better offensively here. But defense tends to beat offense this time of year and experience matters too. This is TCU's 1st NCAA Tourney appearance since 1998. 8* Syracuse 

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Raptors won again last night, 106-99 at Indiana, increasing their win streak to 10 games (NOT the longest active streak in the NBA right now) and their lead over Boston to five games for the top spot in the East. To me, Toronto is CLEARLY the best team in the Eastern Conference. You have to wonder if the franchise's "checkered history" (have advanced past 1st rd only three times, two of those coming in the L2 years) still works against them. Because they actually have a better per game point differential than Golden State (+8.9 vs. +7.9) and are set to overtake Houston (+9.0) for the league lead in that department. The Raptors are 28-5 straight up at Air Canada Center (best home record in the league) where they are outscoring foes by 11.6 PPG! I'll gladly swallow the points here against a sub-par Dallas team that's simply playing out the string. 

The Mavs did win their last time out as well, beating the depleted Knicks 110-97 on Tuesday. They've had two days off in what will end up being a four-game road trip w/ these next three games all being played over the next four days. I'm actually on record as saying Dallas is better than a lot of the other bottom-feeders in the league and they've been competitive of late, winning three of four. The one loss was to Houston, but by 23 pts at home. However, to me, Toronto should be a double-digit favorite at home against an average team. Dallas remains below average, so the number looks short. The Mavs are just 8-24 SU on the road and remember that's w/ a win their last time out. Something else to keep in mind is they just lost SG Wesley Matthews for the year to a broken leg. 

Toronto did need to come from behind to win at Indiana last night as they were down eight at the half and did not take the lead unti late in the fourth quarter. However, they did dominate the Pacers on the boards and stll wound up covering the spread. I realize there is a question of fatigue here w/ this being the second game of a back to back, but this is not the most challenging of opponents. That said, the Raptors do have legit revenge for a five-point loss down in Dallas back in December. That was one of their worst offensive games of the season (shot only 33%!), something that won't happen again here. 8* Toronto

10* Dallas (7:35 ET): Simply put, this is a must win game for the Stars. They have fallen to fifth in the absolutely loaded Central Division, making them what would be the final (2nd of 2) Wild Card teams in the Western Conference. To say the West is deep and log-jammed right now would be quite the understatement. We basically have 11 teams vying for 8 playoff spots. Three teams - Nashville, Winnipeg and Vegas - look to be "sure things" for the postseason. The other five spots will go to a group of what is now eight teams currently separated by just six points. At the end of today, Dallas could be tied for the 4th most points in the conference or outside the top eight entirely. They are facing an Ottawa team that has long been out of playoff contention over in the Eastern Conference and is rated among the league's worst. I have the two points going to the Stars. 

Dallas has not been helping itself at all of late as they've dropped three in a row and five of the last six. Their last four losses have all been out on the road. The current road trip won't be getting any easier w/ future dates at Winnipeg and Washington, so I really cannot stress how imperative it is to win here tonight. Ottawa is easily the weakest opponent of the six-game trip. Now the Stars did lose in Montreal earlier in the week, but that game and the subsequent 6-5 loss to Toronto (which went to a shootout) saw them finish w/ the edge in shots. Wednesday's loss in Toronto was pretty brutal as the Stars gave up three goals in the third period after rallying back from an early 2-0 hole themselves. Dallas has been a lot better this year when it comes to not giving up goals as they rank 6th in the league in that department. Certainly, the offense should feel confident going against a Senators club that is 30th in the league in goals against. 

Now Ottawa is off B2B wins here, having beaten Florida and Tampa Bay here at home. They scored seven times in a shocking win over the league-best Lightning on Tuesday, but the likelihood of that performance being repeated ranges between "slim" and "none." After scoring four or more goals the previous game, the Sens are 7-15 SU this season. They are also 8-21 SU after allowing four or more the previous game. A big key here is Dallas has NEVER lost four in a row at any point this season, going 3-0 when on a three-game slide. 10* Dallas

8* Texas (4:30 ET): This is yet another matchup where one side has an extreme edge in defensive efficiency, this one possibly the most extreme example yet. Texas may have gone just 18-12 SU overall and 8-10 SU in conference, but they finished Top 10 in defensive efficiency nationally. Nevada, 27-7 SU overall and regular season champs in the Mountain West, ranked outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. That massive gap will prove to be the difference maker in this one. Also, it could be said the Wolfpack (tied for highest seed in program history) were somewhat exposed w/ an early exit in the conference tournament where they were beaten badly by San Diego State. Texas hails from the better conference and is being vastly underrated in this spot.

Texas has plenty of size and one of the most impressive frontcourts in the country. The good news is that stud freshman Mohamed Bamba  is set to play here. Bamba is second in the country w/ 3.8 blocks per game. He'll give the Horns a massive edge - literally and figuratively - inside. He played only 14 minutes in the team's 68-64 loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 quarterfinals. That's a good team that they were able to cover against, without their best player. The Longhorns have covered three of four down the stretch, including an impressive win over West Virginia in the regular season final. The 'Horns obviously play in a much stronger conference than Nevada, so take the respective records w/ a grain of salt. 

Nevada has only played eight games against NCAA Tournament teams and three of those were vs. San Diego State (went 1-2). Another was against 16-seed Radford. They went 0-2 SU vs. the BIg 12, losing to TCU and Texas Tech. The Wolfpack are also a banged up team right now. PG Lindsey Drew was lost to an Achilles injury back in mid-February and since then, they've lost twice. Several other players are banged up too and this is just a six-man rotation for HC Eric Musselman. If there's any kind of foul trouble, Nevada will most definitely be "up against it." The way you beat the Wolfpack is by slowing the game down and controlling the boards. Coincidentally, those are the ways Texas wins. In the MWC Semifinal loss to San Diego State, Nevada was -10 in rebounds and found themselves down by THIRTY at the half! In the L3 losses, they are -30 on the boards. The Longhorns get the first NCAA Tourney win of the Shaka Smart era! 8* Texas 

8* Butler (3:10 ET): This is another of these first round matchups where a team that is clearly better (to me) is laying a really short number. It also looks to be one of only two games (also FSU vs. Missouri) where the lower seeded team is favored. Now I will concede that Arkansas is a formidable offensive team and is coming off a nice run in the SEC Tournament. But this time of year is when I put more stock in the defensive end of the floor and there is where the Razorbacks' resume can be picked apart as they rank 103rd nationally in defensive efficiency. That's one of the lowest rankings of any team from a power conference in the tournament. Arkansas beat both South Carolina and Florida in the SEC Tourney, but was then exposed by Tennessee in an 84-66 semifinal loss. Lay the points here w/ Butler.

Over in the Big East Tournament, Butler did not have a good semifinal experience either. They lost to Villanova 87-68 as 8.5-pt dogs. That came on the heels of a buzzer beating victory over Seton Hall, a revenge game for a loss in the regular season finale. The Bulldogs did not finish the regular season particularly well, going just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS their last nine games. But seven of those games were against tourney teams, four away from home, and they still walked away w/ three victories. That may not sound all that impressive, but note the Bulldogs lost three games to teams seeded #1 in the NCAA Tourney, Villanova twice and Xavier. Butler is a respectable 31st nationally in offensive efficiency, not far behind Arkansas (#18), but as alluded to earlier, it's the other end of the floor where the clear edge comes into play. The Bulldogs rank 49th in defensive efficiency. 

But while Butler's edge might be on defense, let's not discount their offense. They scored 101 pts in a victory over Villanova on New Year's Eve (Wildcats' 1st loss of season) and average 79.1 points per game. They are also top 50 in the country in two-point FG%. They've got experience as well w/ six players having been in the Tournament before. Arkansas was already thin in the front court before dismissing Dustin Thomas (a starter!) prior to the SEC Tournament. Also, nine of the Hogs' 10 losses this season came by double digit margins. 8* Butler

analysis soon

8* Texas A&M (12:15 ET): I'm not really "getting" the love for Providence in this spot. Sure, the Friars pulled an upset of Xavier (a #1 seed) last weekend in the Big East Tournament, but they're a pretty pedestrian team from where I sit. Their 3-0 ATS performance last weekend (beat Creighton & Xavier, covered vs. Villanova) can be picked apart in the sense that all three games went into overtime, which probably works AGAINST them here. For what it's worth, Providence has the lowest BPI rating (ESPN) of any at-large team in the field. With the line having shifted, I now see some significant value on Texas A&M. Granted, the Aggies didn't exactly close strong, bowing out earlier than expected in the SEC Tournament w/ a one-point loss to Alabama. But that was a tough spot facing the Crimson Tide a second straight time (beat them in reg season finale). A&M is still #12 in the country in defensive efficiency and that carries a lot of weight w/ me. Lay the points. 

Really, I'm not sure what area Providence has in this matchup. They're also outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. That's owed in large part to a lack of three-point shooting. Only one player on the roster shoots better than 40% from three-point range and the team was second from the bottom among Big East teams from behind the arc. They do a good job defending, particularly the arc, and actually led the Big East in PPG allowed. However, that being said, A&M is still superior defensively. Also as good as the Friars may be at guarding the three-point line, they are in the bottom 100 nationally in two-point FG% at 51.7. Falling behind is never good, but especially for a team the likes of Providence that isn't really built to come from behind.

A&M has both talent and depth in its frontcourt, led by probable 1st rd NBA draft pick Robert Williams, who shot 67% on two-point attempts during the regular season. Given the info provided above on the Providence defense, I look for Williams to have a big game here and exploit the edge the Aggies have on the interior. While Providence is in the bottom 100 nationally in two-point FG defense, A&M is in the top 15. That's a massive edge. Suspensions and injuries hurt the Aggies in the early going of the SEC slate, but now they're at full strength and have six players averaging at least 9.0 PPG. A&M is the better team here and laying a short number, somewhat of a "no-brainer." 8* Texas A&M 

8* Detroit (9:05 ET): Despite trading for Blake Griffin halfway through the season, it's looking less and less likely that the Pistons will be making the playoffs, even in the watered-down Eastern Conference. Since Griffin's arrival, they've generally been a disaster at the betting window and their last time out, they took a horrendous 110-79 beatdown at the hands of Utah. That leaves them five full games back of the eight spot in the Conference and money-burning 5-19 ATS their L24 games overall. On paper, things are no easier tonight as they visit one of the teams w/ the strongest homecourt advantages in the league. But I'm not entirely sure Denver deserves to be laying this kind of weight. Take the points. 

It's not just the bad ATS stretch that has the Pistons undervalued here; it's also how badly they were beaten Tuesday in Utah. The game was never close as Detroit found itself down 21 pts at the end of the 1st quarter. They were then outscored in every subsequent quarter and never got closer than 15 pts. They shot below 40% in every quarter as well, finishing the game at 37.5% overall. Needless to say, they're "due" for a better offensive night here. A big difference is the Jazz are tied for #2 in the league in defensive efficiency while Denver is tied for 24th. That lends itself to my belief that a much better offensive performance is forthcoming. 

The Nuggets are just 5-5 SU since the All-Star Break and are in 10th place in the Western Conference. I played against them Tuesday night, as road favorites, and sure enough they lost outright to the Lakers. It was the second straight road game I played against them and got the same result. Now this is a much better team at home (26-10 straight up), however, they normally aren't being asked to lay this many points. They did cover the L2 here at home, against Sacramento and the Lakers, but this is an opponent they are less familiar with. Interestingly enough, when these teams played back in December, the Pistons were a seven-point favorite. Granted, they got blown out 103-84, but now the line has totally flipped the other way. I expect the Pistons to come out motivated here after playing one of their worst games of the season two nights ago. 8* Detroit

8* Houston (7:20 ET): This Houston team is a legit darkhorse. Ranking in the top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency, the Cougars are coming off a strong run in the American Tourney where they upset Wichita State, then took Cincinnati to the limit in the Final (lost by only 1 in a real "rock-fight," 56-55). I think they're a solid value Thursday against a San Diego State team that is only here thanks to an upset of Nevada in the Mountain West Tourney. Without that and the subsequent win over New Mexico in the conference tourney final, the Aztecs would be in the NIT, not here. To me, they are clearly the inferior squad here. Lay the short number as I expect Houston to roll in this 6 vs. 11 matchup. 

In terms of talent and the metrics, I think Houston is a lot closer to Cincinnati and Wichita State than people realize. It definitely was a "Big 3" in the American this year and I would argue that the Cougars were actually better than Wichita State! This is an excellent rebounding team, one that has a +7.7 edge in boards per game over their opponents. Then there is the defense, which gives up just 64.9 PPG. Teams shot less than 40% for the season against the Cougs. They do have an issue w/ fouling too much, but I don't think that will hurt them here. Something else that is key is they come into Thursday off a loss. Despite an 18-11 SU record, UH NEVER lost B2B games during the regular season. 

San Diego State seemed headed for a pretty pedestrian season under 1st year HC Brian Dutcher. They were 13-10 SU going into a Valentine's Day tilt w/ Wyoming, but won that game and haven't lost since. It's nine straight wins coming into the Tournament. The big one was obviously beating Nevada in the MWC semis. It was actually the second win in less than a week over the Wolfpack, a pretty good achievement. They also beat Gonzaga earlier in the year. But other than that, there really aren't any other quality wins. They finished fourth in a pretty weak conference and are a fringe top 50 team. I have Houston ranked inside my top 20. While the Aztecs are also pretty good defensively, they lack a "go-to" guy offensively and aren't very prolific from three-point range. Houston, conversely, shoots 38.7% from behind the arc. 8* Houston

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): This sets up as huge battle in the Metropolitan Division w/ the third and fifth place teams meeting. Only two points separate Philly and Columbus w/ New Jersey now in between. For most of this season, it has looked extremely likely that the Metro would be sending five teams to the playoffs, taking both "Wild Card" spots. But w/ Florida making a late charge over in the Atlantic, things no longer appear that certain (bottom three in the Metro have all dropped off). So tonight's game is definitely very important to both sides and I'm going w/ the Flyers even though they have a better record on the road than at home! The key is the Blue Jackets are nowhere near as strong on the road as they are at home.

Now this play certainly "flies in the face" of recent form as C-bus has gotten hot, rattling off five consecutive victories while Philly is trending in the wrong direction, taking a loss in six of its last seven contests. But getting back to home vs. road splits, four of those five Blue Jackets' wins have come at home where they are now 23-11-2 for the season. On the road, their record is 14-17-3. Something else worth mentioning is how the Jackets have scored at least four goals in all five of those victories. This has been - by no means - an offensive juggernaut this season as the team ranks only 25th in goals per game. Eight of their last 16 games have come from defensemen, which seems unsustainable. I realize that Petr Mrazek hasn't necessarily been "lights out" since coming over from Detroit, but I'm calling for a strong effort in goal tonight. 

The Flyers were red hot at the end of February, having gone 10-1-2 for the month and additionally, they'd won 26 of their previous 37 contests. But March is not off to a good start, primarily due to a challenging schedule that has featured more road games than not. Over the L6 games, the Flyers have had to face: Tampa Bay, Florida, Pittsburgh, Boston, Winnipeg and Vegas. The L2 were at home, and while they did lose both times, Philly outshot both opponents. Each loss was by just one goal. They outshot Vegas 40-29 on Monday. Looking at the "ebbs and flows" of this season (for both times), I'd say this is a great time to buy low on the Flyers and sell high on the Blue Jackets as the money line is offering a nice value. 10* Philadelphia

10* Seton Hall (4:30 ET): It's my belief that Seton Hall is simply a better all-around team that North Carolina State. Therefore, I have zero issue laying what is a very short number Thursday afternoon in this Round of 64 matchup. The Pirates, who are a fringe Top 25 team from where I sit, come into the Tournament highly motivated after a 1st round exit LY at the hands of Arkansas. All season long it has been the players' stated goal to win a NCAA Tournament game. Adding to the motivation is an earlier than expected exit from the Big East Tournament last week. A good Butler team beat them (by one) on a last second tip-in. That was no upset though as the Pirates were slight underdogs. They come into Thursday on a 5-0 ATS run.

NC State is wholly unimpressive and I'm not exactly sure they deserved to be among the field of 68. This is a team that trailed Pitt (who didn't win a single ACC game this year) at the half. Yes, they did beat both Duke and North Carolina, the latter coming on the road. But when you start talking about the defensive end of the floor, that is when the cracks really start to show with this team. They rank 100th nationally in defensive efficiency, a dubious distinction, as only a "handful" of power conference teams that made the Tournament rank lower in that department. They gave up 91 points to Boston College last week, making them one and done in the ACC Tourney. They shot better than 50% from three-point range and 53% overall and still lost!

That kind of leaky defense should prove problematic against a Seton Hall squad averaging 79.0 PPG. Granted, the Pirates aren't the best defensively themselves, but they are 43 spots higher in efficiency compared to NC State. This is also a team that traditionally plays well when rested. They are 11-2 ATS when taking the court w/ five or six days rest. The Pirates have been "one and done" in the Tourney each of the last two years, so will the third time "be the charm?" Yes, I think so. NC State has not been to the Tournament since 2015, which was under a previous regime. Their non-conference schedule was not good and this is a team that does not fare well under the slower pace that Tournament games tend to be played at. Seton Hall is the more experienced team here and the fact they don't turn the ball over much will spell doom for a NC State team that struggles when the other team isn't giving it away. 10* Seton Hall

8* Loyola IL (3:10 ET): Of all the first round matchups, this is the one where the lower seed is most likely to win, in my opinion. The oddsmakers certainly seem to agree, installing 6th seeded Miami as only a short favorite for this battle w/ regular season and conference tourney champ Loyola IL, out of the Missouri Valley. This Ramblers are in the Big Dance for the 1st time in 33 years, so the opportunity certainly won't be taken lightly. This is a team that can shoot the lights out (50.7 FG% for the season, third best in the country and tops among tournament teams!) and perhaps more importantly they can play defense too. This is the rare time where a team seeded 11 or lower has a markedly better defensive efficiency rating than its counterpart. Loyola is 25th nationally in defensive efficiency while Miami is 45th. It all adds up to a 1st round upset, IMO. Take the points. 

It's not as if "The U" heads into the Big Dance in fine form either. Being 4-4 SU over your last eight games is unimpressive on its own, but when you consider that those four wins came by a TOTAL of eight points, well, it's even less impressive. Furthemore, the Hurricanes will be w/o soph guard Bruce Brown, Jr, due to a left foot injury. Now Brown has been out for awhile (surgery was Feb 1), but since his departure, the team's lone DD win was against a Pitt team that went winless in ACC play. The Canes have gone just 3-10 ATS their L13 games. They have not shot the ball well this year, either from the free throw line (66.6%!) or three-point range (36.5%) and lack experience. As a favorite, their ATS record this season was only 5-10. 

Meanwhile, Loyola lost only five times all year and comes into the tourney having won 17 of 18. They have five double digit scorers and six different players shoot better than 37.5% from behind the arc. As a team, the Ramblers shoot nearly 40% from distance! They beat Florida earlier this season (in Gainesville!). Their three conference losses were by a combined 11 pts, none greater than a five-point margin. Honestly, looking at this matchup, I'm not sure how much of an "upset" it would really be as Loyola may simply be the better team overall. They are top five in the country in PPG allowed, giving up just 62.7 PPG. This was an awful draw for the 'Canes. 8* Loyola IL

8* UNC Greensboro (1:30 ET): When searching for a potential "Cinderella" in the NCAA Tournament, there are several "boxes" I like to check. First off, did the team win its regular season conference crown? In the case of UNC Greensboro, that's a check, as the Spartans won the SoCon w/ a 15-3 SU record and went 27-7 SU overall. They beat a very good East Tennessee State team in the Tournamet Final, 62-47. They can also play some defense too, ranking inside the top 30 in efficiency nationally. That's another key metric I like to look at (it certainly "foretold" South Carolina's run to the Final 4 last year). For this 1st round matchup, UNCG draws LY's national runner-up Gonzaga and I think they're getting way too many points.

Gonzaga largely sleepwalked through WCC play, something that they could get away with, considering how bad the league was this season. St. Mary's not getting into the Tournament certainly hurts the Zags' resume. This team is not as strong as last year's, which entered the Big Dance #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. This year, they dropped down to 16th. But again, you have to question the resume as the Zags haven't beaten a Tournament team going back to December 1st. That makes them no different than UNCG in that regard. Gonzaga did "turn it on" in the conference tourney, beating all three opponents by double digits. But two of those teams aren't very good (Loyola Marymount, San Francisco) and they were lucky to avoid St. Mary's in the Final, instead playing BYU. The late run has the Zags a bit overvalued here, IMO.

In my estimation, UNC Greensboro would be the 4th best team in the WCC. Really, they are pretty comparable to BYU. Now, yes, I haven't forgotten what I just typed about the WCC Final. But a big key here is how Gonzaga isn't as familiar w/ UNCG as they are BYU, who they played three times. The line here is also several pts higher than it was for that BYU game. Something to make note of is that UNC Greensboro has a lot more size than you're accustomed to seeing from a mid-major. That's a big reason why this team ranked 6th nationally in PPG allowed. The Spartans covered all six non-conference games that were lined in the regular season. Not sure they'll pull the outright upset, but expect a close game here. 8* UNC Greensboro

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors' embarrassment of riches has never been more apparent than here where I'll gladly lay the points despite them being w/o Steph Curry, Draymond Green and possibly Klay Thompson. They still have Kevin Durant remember. While Curry's ankle is keeping him out of action, it appears the former MVP's 30th birthday party is what has claimed the others on the roster. It certainly appeared to be a good time on that yacht and as a result practice was cancelled yday. Now the team has lost two straight w/o Curry, but those losses were on the road against tough opponents, Portland and Minnesota. There's no other team in the league I'd take w/ all the above factors in play, but the Dubs are obviously different.

Key to this play is that the Lakers (who I've won w/ B2B games) are in the second night of a back to back and playing their fifth game in seven nights. LA was a winner for me both Sunday vs. Cleveland and last night vs. Denver, but those were both home games. On the road this year, this team is only 13-21 SU and allowing 113.8 PPG. There's also some attrition on this end as Bradon Ingram is still out w/ a strained groin. The team was able to overcome his absence last night, but three starters logged 39 or more minutes in the win, which saw them have to rally in the fourth quarter (outscored Denver 35-21). This is a bad spot for the Lakers and one can only imagine what the line would be if the Dubs were even close to full strength here. 

Golden State does have Durant though and he's scored 79 pts total the L2 games. The Warriors are also no stranger to facing the Lakers short-handed this season. In two of the three previous meetings, Curry hasn't played. They were also w/o Green in a two-point road win (overtime) back in December. Despite beating the Lakers 15 of the last 19 meetings, one would have to go back almost a quarter century to find the last time (1994) the Warriors swept a season series from their division rival. So there's your motivation there, in addition to the B2B losses. Look, I've been on the Lakers recently as they've played well since the All-Star Break (8-2 L10). But this is a horrible spot for them and only the second time all year GSW has been off B2B losses. 10* Golden State 

8* Vegas (10:05 ET): For most of this year, the expansion Golden Knights have been THE story in NHL as it's looking more and more likely that they'll win the Pacific Division in their first year of existence. A case can me made that the team from Vegas is the best expansion team, EVER, in any sport. A large part of their success is due to what appears to be one of the strongest home ice advantages in the league. They've gone 24-7-2 in "Sin City" and whether or not that's the alleged "Vegas flu" (visiting teams having too much "fun" when they visit), or something else, the home ice edge is very real. I expect the "Vegas flu" in to inflict yet another opponent tonight, that being fellow overachiever New Jersey.

While they've been a dominant home team, let's not sell short what Vegas just did on the road. They took the final three games of a five-game trip out East (went 4-1 overall), allowing only three goals in the last three games. Now, two of the wins were against a couple of also-rans in Detrot and Buffalo. But they did just beat Philadelphia Monday night. The Flyers, like the Devils, are trying to lock down one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. The Golden Knights won despite a 40-29 deficit in shots as the power play contributed a pair of goals. Something to note is that Vegas is one of only four teams in the league right now to rank in the top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed (Boston, Nashville, Winnipeg). Not coincidentally, those are four of the top five teams in points. Vegas is 3rd in the league in scoring overall and averages 3.64 goals per game here at home.

New Jersey has arguably been the biggest surprise out East as they've missed the playoffs each of the last five years, bottoming out w/ LY's last place finish. They come into tonight well-rested and off a win as they beat Nashville in a shootout Saturday, 3-2. That was on the road too, so perhaps the Devils can win here. But I don't think they will. The club is in the thick of a brutal stretch of games as they hosted Winnipeg (lost) before beating Nashville and now head to the West Coast where they'll next face the three California teams, followed by a trip to Pittsburgh. This stretch of games could cost them a playoff berth. 8* Vegas

8* Syracuse (9:10 ET): Defensive efficiency is a key metric that I will lean on throughout the NCAA Tournament. Here, it looks to be a huge edge for Syracuse. Neither of these teams should have even gotten into the Big Dance, but now that both are here, we should probably look to exploit the situation. Jim Boeheim will COACH against Bobby Hurley here and I don't know who that should make "feel older" - me, or Boeheim. Regardless, the veteran HC brings a much better defensive team into this year's tournament compared to what Hurley has. Syracuse ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency while ASU is an unsightly 125th, the worst such ranking of any team from any "major" conference in the tournament. Based on that and the fact they're a slight dog, I'm all over the Orange here.

Both of these squads have the somewhat dubious distinction of owning losing records in conference play (both 8-10 SU). Again though, that seems like a knock against ASU given that they play in the weak Pac 12, which sent only three teams to the Tourney and two (them and UCLA) are "first four" participants. Meanwhile, I'm not going to ever give a ringing endorsement of a team that goes 8-10 SU in conference play, but at least Syracuse has the "excuse" of playing in the ACC, which sent NINE teams to the Big Dance, the most of any league in the land. The 'Cuse can at least say they have wins over the likes of Clemson and Miami, both of whom are seeded six or higher. While Arizona State started 12-0 w/ wins over Xavier and Kansas (both #1 seeds), the metrics were all in agreement that the offensive production (were averaging 91.8 PPG!) was unsustainable and that regression was forthcoming. That is exactly what transpired. 

Now Syracuse might be as inept offensively as any team in this Tournament. But again, it's the other end of the floor that will determine the outcome of this game. Against power five foes that average 70 or fewer possessions per game, ASU went just 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in the regular season. Syracuse plays slow and will obviously play a lot of zone here. Those are two things that have given the Sun Devils all sorts of trouble. Meanwhile, ASU's defense is just terrible as they rank only one spot higher in efficiency than Radford, a 16-seed that had to win a "first four game" yday. 8* Syracuse

8* Puck Line NY Rangers (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. Tremendous value here on the Rangers, who are at home and getting the goal and a half. Yes, it's largely been a disastrous second half of the season for the guys wearing the blue sweaters (they are just 6-12-2 L20 games), but they are off a 6-3 win here at MSG (over Carolina) the other night. It's become increasingly likely that NY will NOT be in the playoffs as they now face a nine-point deficit w/ just 12 games to play and they'd need to jump a lot of teams. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is looking to win the Metro. They enter Weds trailing rival Washington by just a single point. But they've been very inconsistent. 

Take for instance the last eight games, which have seen the Pens go 4-4 SU. Two of the wins were by exactly one goal. They picked up a big win the other night, 3-1 over Dallas, but that was on home ice. Out on the road, this team is just 14-18-3 this season and they are giving up 3.3 goals per game. While the Pens have had the Rangers' number of late, especially here at MSG (7-1 L8 visits), it hasn't always been easy. This is the fourth head to head matchup this season and two of the previous three were one-goal games, including the lone one in the Big Apple. Overall, 32 of the Penguins' 70 games this year (nearly half) have been one goal games. For the Rangers, that number is 30. So there's a strong likelihood this will be a one-goal game and that's a win for us remember, regardless of the actual result.

Something else to note here is that when Pittsburgh's top ranked power play is struggling, the team typically suffers as a result. The Rangers are 8th in penalty killing, so that should serve them well tonight. The PK has gone 12 of 14 this month. Pittsburgh has been very inconsistent defensively as they've allowed 1 or 0 goals nine times over the last 30 games, but also allowed 4+ nine times in that same stretch. For the Rangers, Henrik Lundqvist has been better of late w/ an outstanding .933 save percentage his L4 starts. If he doesn't go, the emerging Alexandar Georgiev has been solid as well (.930 save percentage).  Goaltending is a question mark for the Pens as Matt Murray has an .898 save percentage in road games while Tristan Jarry has been quite "leaky" of late (.899 save percentage L4 starts). 8* Puck Line NY Rangers (+1.5)

8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET) Similar setup here to my winner w/ the Lakers over Cleveland Sunday night as I believe they should be favored at home against the Nuggets. The Lakers have actually played really well since the All-Star Break, winning seven of nine, and Sunday's double digit triumph over the Cavs may have been the finest performance yet. Led by a career night from Julius Randle (36-11-7), the Lakers basically led the entire way. Now they look to avenge one of their only two losses since the Break. Friday in Denver, they fell to the Nuggets 125-116 as eight-point dogs. The Nuggets, ironically, were coming off a home win over Cleveland two days prior. Deja vu? I think so! Take the points. 

A change in venue should be a big reason for a change in result from last Friday. Denver is 26-10 SU at the Pepsi Center where they enjoy one of the stronger homecourt advantages in the entire league. But on the road, they are just 11-20 SU and give up over 110.2 PPG. Considering the way the Lakers just pushed around another bad defensive team (Cleveland), I see the same thing happening here. Also, while the Lakers are just 13-21 SU on the road, they sport a winning record here at Staples Center. Their only home loss since the start of February came against a Portland team that is the hottest in the league right now and that game was close (lost by only five). 

Obviously, Houston and Golden State are the class of the Western Conference this year. But behind them are eight teams currently separated by just four games. The Nuggets are at the bottom of the spectrum, tied w/ two other teams - Utah and San Antonio (!) - for the eighth seed. So I know this game is important to them. But the role of spoiler seems to be treating the Lakers well. Given they rank 25th in the league in defensive efficiency (Lakers are 13th), the signs are on the wall that Denver may be one one of the two teams left out of the playoffs amongst the current crop of contenders. They've played a pretty easy schedule of late, yet are only 4-4 SU the L8 games (were favored six times). The last time they hit the road, they lost outright to Dallas (I was on the Mavs!) and gave up 118 pts. Both teams coming in off a double digit win (Denver beat Sacramento 130-104 Sunday) sets up an interesting scenario. While the Nuggets are 5-12 ATS off a win by 10+ pts, the Lakers are 12-2! 10* LA Lakers

10* Calgary (9:05 ET): This edition of the "Battle of Alberta" carries added importance for the Flames, who are only two points back of the Wild Card in the Western Conference, but in 11th place as well. That means they need to jump at least three teams to make the playoffs. Two points here would potentially tie them w/ Colorado (who is at Minnesota tonight) and Anaheim (idle) for the final WC spot. Sunday's 5-2 home loss to the Islanders certainly didn't help matters and thus the Flames can ill-afford another home defeat at the hands of a non-contender. Their sub-par home record (14-16-4) is cause for some concern here, but Edmonton is a team whose struggles run far deeper. Go with the favorite here. 

The Oilers are easily on the short-list for biggest disappointment in the league this season. Their fans were thinking Stanley Cup and a return to the glory days after last season's breakthrough campaign. However, the team won't even be competing for the Cup this year as their fate has long ago been decided. Special teams have been horrible all year as they rank dead last in penalty killing and second to last on the power play. They are also 29th in goals allowed. Now, they have played better recently, winning their last three games. But it's "too little, too late" and there's been only one winning streak longer all season (right before X-Mas). It also should be pointed out that two of those three wins came in OT or a shootout, against two of the league's worst - the Islanders and Coyotes. The last two times the Oilers found themselves on a win streak of three games, they were outscored by a combined 10-2.

As disappointing as the Oilers have been, they have had the Flames' number. They're 3-0 SU head to head this season, although two of the wins were at home. Over the last two seasons, the Oilers have now taken all seven head to head meetings. Think Calgary might be "slightly" motivated here tonight? Then, you throw in the fact that the team has only TWO home victories since the All-Star Break. I don't believe in the term "must win," because any team can lose at any time, but the Flames HAVE to have this one. I see them taking advantage of the Oilers' 30th ranked .898 save percentage. 10* Calgary

8* Dallas (7:35 ET): There's 11 teams currently competing for the eight playoff spots in the Western Conference and of those 11, only three (Nashville, Winnipeg, Vegas) seem like sure bets to get to the postseason. The other eight are left to fend for the final five spots, including two Wild Cards, and are separated by all of seven points entering play on Tuesday. Dallas is 4th in the Central right now and would be a Wild Card the way things stand. However, that status can change in an instant, which is why picking up two points tonight in Montreal is so crucial. The Habs should be all too willing to lay down as they're a bad team returning home after five straight defeats on the road. At this point, it's "wait until next year" for them as the playoffs are not a realistic possibility. 

It's been a series of low-scoring affairs for Dallas recently as the last five games, two wins and three losses, have all seen five or fewer total goals scored. This is much different than Stars' teams of the past, which were near the top of the league in scoring, but near the bottom in goals allowed. This edition happens to rank 4th in goals allowed even after a 3-1 loss at Pittsburgh Sunday night (where I was on the Penguins!). They managed only 18 shots in goal in that one and have scored two goals or fewer in regulation in five straight games. Fortunately for the Stars, the offense should turn around tonight against a Canadiens' club that has allowed 19 goals in just the L4 games. 

Montreal is simply playing out the string right now in what has been a very disappointing year for them. They won the Atlantic Division LY on the back of goalie Carey Price, but both Price and the team have regressed severely in 2017-18. Price is injured now and joining him on the bench tonight will be top defenseman Shea Weber (out for year) and captain Max Pacioretty (knee). The Montreal offense ranks 29th (third worst) in goals per game and while Price wasn't exactly playing well prior to getting hurt, the team's other goaltending options aren't exactly inspiring. The fact that the Habs played last night in Columbus (lost 5-2) does them no favors here. Charlie Lindgren started last night and has been terrible, so it's likely Antti Niemi. The Habs, who have just three wins in their L15 games overall, are only 3-8 SU when playing w/o rest. 8* Dallas

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): This is a bad spot for Oklahoma City to be laying points, even if the opponent is "only" Atlanta. The Thunder didn't cover last night either as they were laying double digits at home to Sacramento. The Kings may very well be the worst team in the league (if not them, Phoenix or Memphis), yet OKC entered the fourth quarter trailing them, at home. It took Russell Westbrook's 20th triple double of the season to notch the 106-101 victory. They are now 4th in the West, one-half game ahead of New Orleans and Minnesota, but tonight happens to mark their their third game in four nights not to mention their fourth in six nights. They've gotten to play the last three all at home and faced both Phoenix and Sacramento, not to mention a decimated Spurs' squad. Over the L6 road games, the Thunder do not have a win greater than eight points. Take the points here. 

While OKC is fighting for homecourt advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs, Atlanta's fate was sealed long ago, some might say even before the season started. It's no surprise to see this team heading to the lottery, although I should mention that will snap the East's longest active playoff streak at 10 straight seasons. Though they have lost three in a row and find themselves tied at the bottom of the conference currently, the Hawks have generally been a competitive bunch here at home where their record is a respectable 15-20 SU and they're being outscored by less than three points per game. They've also done quite well against the Western Conference this year, going 16-7-1 ATS w/ a positive point differential. 

Atlanta had last night off, which was needed after losing at home to Chicago on Sunday. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, loses an hour as it has to travel East (w/o rest) and remember we're just getting used to Daylight Savings Time (this stuff has an effect!). It's not like the Thunder haven't been bankrupting their backers all season anyway; their 27-41-1 ATS mark is second worst in the league right now, ahead of only a Cleveland team that has been historically bad at the betting window. Both teams have been short-handed of late and while that might seem to hurt the Hawks more, they got 38 points from Taurean Price on Sunday and the schedule is more kind to them coming into this one. 8* Atlanta

10* Radford (6:40 ET): We've moved past questioning the existence of these first four "play in" (opening round) games, at least I think. Every year, we've seen at least one team that played either Tuesday or Wednesday advance to the Rd of 32. Of course, none of the 16 seeds have ever done that. But seeing as no 16 seed has ever beaten a 1 seed, it's kind of nice to have these games as at least there is the chance for victory. Typically, these 16 vs. 16 seed matchups feature teams that did NOT win their regular season conference crown and such is the case here. Radford hails from the Big South and they caught a break in the conference tournament as top seed UNC Asheville was eliminated in the semifinal round, then won in the final on a buzzer beater. LIU Brooklyn won the Northeast Conference by stunning top seeded Wagner themselves in the Tournament Final. 

Though Radford didn't finish first in the Big South, it's not as if they weren't close. They finished in second place, just one game behind UNC Asheville. They come into the Big Dance on a real roll, having won seven in a row. Now I will concede that they didn't play UNC Asheville (who was the last team to beat them, by two, back on 2.10)during that stretch and instead picked up a good number of wins against the bottom of the conference (including two over last place Longwood). However, they did beat #3 seed Winthrop in the semifinals and then Liberty (who ousted UNC Asheville) in the final. The Highlanders have been playing some great defense of late, holding six of the last seven opponents to 53 pts or less. They've allowed just 50.8 PPG the L5 contests on 39.2% shooting. Though it won't matter beyond tonight, playing that kind of defense is huge this time of year. Radford ranks in the top 20 nationally for scoring defense this season. 

Long Island has also turned in some solid defensive numbers of late as opponents have shot only 35.5% against them the L5 games. That percentage seems somewhat unsustainable, however. The Blackbirds stunned reg season champ Wagner in the NEC Final, 71-61 as 9.5-pt dogs, thanks in large part to Wagner shooting only 30 percent from the field. It was Wagner's only home loss of the season (what a time!) and the 1st half was the difference maker as LIU was able to go into the break w/ a shocking 34-18 edge. I just cannot see the Blackbirds coming anywhere close to duplicating that kind of performance. It's not as if they are any kind of stout defensive team. They rank 295th in defensive efficiency, which is second worst among the 68 tournament teams. (Radford is 133rd, 2nd best among the 16 seeds (Penn)). LIU was only 13-16 SU on Feb 21st and didn't beat a single team in the field of 68 all year. They are a small team that ranks in the top 17 nationally in turning the ball over. Though Radford has not been to an NCAA Tournament since '09, this is the third time in the last five seasons under HC Mike Jones that they've won 20+ games. They are the better team here and should win relatively easily. 10* Radford

10* Miami (10:35 ET): The Heat look to going into Portland short-handed Monday night, but that gives us an inflated number to exploit. Among those on the injury list tonight for the Heat are: Justise Winslow, Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside. Of the three, Winslow is the most likely to play. Wade is officially OUT and Whiteside is doubtful. Given Portland is as hot as any team in the sport right now, this seems problematic. But I believe the Blazers are going to be in full letdown mode here after just beating another injury-riddled team, Golden State, over the weekend. Whether they're at full strength or not, beating the Warriors is always a big deal, for any team. Portland's streak of six straight ATS wins comes to an end here. Take the points. 

Miami has been on a bit of a hot streak (pun intended!) of their own recently as they're 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS the last five games. The lone loss during that stretch was by four at Washington and they just avenged it Saturday night w/ a commanding 129-102 victory, at home. Let's also not discount the importance of this game for the Heat, who are currently seventh in the East. The top eight have started to pull away from the pack in the conference, meaning the likelihood of Miami making the playoffs seems secure. But they'd probably like to move up into 4th or 5th, so that they can avoid Toronto, Boston or Cleveland in a 1st round series. That's something not out of the realm of possibility. 

Portland's win over Golden State was their ninth in a row. With Houston losing Friday night, that's the longest active win streak in the league right now. They are off back to back double-digit wins and both opponents were w/o their best player. The Warriors didn't have Steph Curry and the Knicks are of course w/o Kristaps Porzingis. Miami may not have Whiteside, but keep in mind they didn't have them when they beat Washington by 27 pts the other night. The five starters combined to shoot 77 percent from the field! They won't be able to do that again tonight, but this is also a top 10 defensive team and that should be enough to keep them inside this inflated number. 10* Miami

10* Over Blues/Ducks (10:05 ET): These days, it seems as if every Western Conference matchup is vital to to the playoff race, and this one is no exception. Anaheim currently sits third in the Pacific, which would mean a guaranteed playoff spot, but they're anything but secure w/ only a one-point edge over the fourth place Kings and a two-point edge over the fifth place Flames. At the same time, the Ducks are only one win away from taking over second place from San Jose. So tonight's result is going to have huge reprucussions for them. So too will it for St. Louis, who of the 11 teams currently in the playoff hunt, is in 11th position. The Blues are three points back of the Wild Card and need to jump multiple teams.

After what the Blues did to the Kings Saturday, it certainly appears as if they're ready to break out. They scored SEVEN times in a huge win out in Staples Center, which was the same number of goals they'd scored - combined - in the previous six games (shut out three times). Let that win not make your forget that St. Louis has been ice cold of late, losing 9 of 11 games overall. To say I could see their previous result coming would be a lie as they were coming off a 2-0 loss to San Jose where they'd been outshot 36-16. But, out of nowhere, they turned around and dealt the Kings their worst loss of the season in a game that saw 83 total shots. Seven different players scored and the first three goals all came from defensemen. You have to think the offense is going to start improving down the home stretch, given how poorly they had performed on that end of the ice the last month. 

Anaheim has a pretty similar profile to St. Louis in that they are in the top seven in the league in goals allowed, but outside the top 20 in goals scored. Neither team's power play figures to set the world on fire, but both are sound on the penalty kill. That sounds like a recipe for an Under, but the Over is 3-0 this season in Ducks' home games if the O/U line is 5.0. The Over is 3-1 in Blues' road games at that number. Anaheim is off a 2-1 loss to Dallas that definitely hurt as they allowed 37 shots on goal. Both teams typically allow a high number shots per game (Ducks top five in that department), so I'm expecting this one to go Over the low number. 10* Over Blues/Ducks

8* Puck Line Ottawa (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play where I am taking the Senators +1.5. For the Sens, this season is "all over but the shouting" as there is no chance they'll be making the playoffs. They've seemed resigned to this fate for some time now and have basically been the East's second worst team (them and Buffalo) much of the way. One has to wonder though if things would be a lot different had they turned some of those overtime/shootout losses into wins. The Sens are right near the top of the league w/ 11 "loser points" and a 2-7 record in shootouts is a league-worst. Though the opponent for tonight is red-hot, I believe Ottawa will do no worse than a one-goal defeat. 

For much of this season, I've been making the case that the Atlantic Division would only be sending its top three (and it's a strong top three) to the playoffs. But Florida has made quite the late charge to get into Wild Card contention and be a possible fourth playoff team from the division. The Panthers are 15-3-1 the L19 games and enter today trailing Columbus by only two points for the final spot. They've won eight of the last nine games (only loss was to TB, in overtime), however, I will point out that six of those nine games have been decided by one goal. Such a result, either way, is all we are looking for here. Also, 32 of Florida's 66 games played (almost half) have been decided by one goal. 

Oddsmakers have definitely taken notice of the Panthers as tonight marks the third straight game they'll be north of -200 on the money line. They won the previous two, including 4-3 over the Rangers in a shootout on Saturday. However, I still remain a bit skeptical. Florida has been outshot in three of its last four games and there really was nothing to suggest this run was forthcoming. Statistically, the Panthers are a pretty average team. Meanwhile, schedulemakers have done Ottawa no favors this year as this will be the first leg of their league-high 21 back to backs this season. They're in Tampa Bay tomorrow night, so if there's a game they're going to get points, it would be more than likely this one. Incredibly, the Sens have played six consecutive one-goal games (lost four) and have played 38 for the season, which is over half of their total games. 8* Puck Line Ottawa (+1.5). 

10* LA Lakers (9:05 ET): I won't go so far as to say Cleveland is a "bad" team, but they are decidedly mediocre. The advanced metrics suggest it could be a very short playoff run for LeBron and company as they have barely outscored their opponents over the course of the season, thanks in large part to a 28th place ranking in defensive efficiency. The Cavs fell again on Friday night, 116-102, which was their 17th double digit loss this season! Following those defeats, they have not fared well their next time out, going an ugly 3-13 ATS (only 8-8 straight up). Overall, it has been a historically bad year at the betting window w/ Cleveland's ATS record now 21-43-1 ATS, easily a league-worst, and when you factor out the games they were an underdog in, that ATS record dips to an unsightly 11-38! The sharp money appears to be against them again tonight and I concur. Take the points. 

The Cavs are just 4-5 SU since the All-Star Break and those four wins have been against: Memphis, Brooklyn, Detroit and Denver. The key is that none of those four would be playoff teams as of today. Four of the five losses have come to teams that would be in the postseason if it got underway today. Now, the Lakers are definitely not going to be a playoff team this year, but they've been playing well since the Break. In fact, their second half record is better than the Cavaliers' at 6-2 SU. They just lost in Denver Friday night, a tough place to play, and lost by nine as eight-point dogs. It was the Lakers' largest margin of defeat though since a loss at New Orleans on 2.14. After scoring 115+ points, LA is 10-5 ATS this season and they do have a winning home record. 

Adding to Cleveland's ATS woes is an 0-7 mark against the Pacific Division. Overall, they have a losing record against the Western Conference this season. Already w/o Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, the Cavs lost two more regulars - Rodney Hood and Cedi Osman - to injury on Friday. Neither will play here and Kyle Korver is questionable as well! Save for some historically great LeBron James performance, I don't see how the Cavs win here. The Lakers have not been a bad team over the last three weeks. 10* LA Lakers

10* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): No one has been able to pull away in the Metro this year and for all the teams not named Pittsburgh, that could prove fatal. The two-time defending Stanley Cup Champs have generally been the division's "best" team since the All-Star Break and as a result, a slower start than normal (to the season) has largely been erased. At one point, the Pens were in first place, but entering play today, they trail the rival Caps by one point. Sunday finds them hosting a Dallas team that's also in the thick of the playoff hunt, albeit in the other conference. The Stars actually have one more point than do the Pens, but are fourth in the brutally tough Central. To me, this one comes down to Pittsburgh's strong home ice advantage. They are 25-8-1 here at the Igloo this season.

Now, the Pens will have to bounce back from a very disappointing 5-2 loss up in Toronto Saturday. The Leafs were the desperate team there, returning home after losing four in a row. They played like it, coming out w/ a greater sense of urgency and taking a 4-0 lead after two periods. It was a 3-0 game after just nine Maple Leafs' shots. However, it should be pointed out that the Pens finished w/ a pretty dramatic 40-26 edge in shots for the game. I expect Pittsburgh's offense to rebound tonight given they'd scored nine goals in the previous two games and four or more in three of their previous four. Dallas is improved defensively this year, but the Pens are 5th in goals scored per game and have the league's top power play (26%).

The Stars' last game was a memorable one for me as it was my *10* Game of the Week (I had the Under) and the end result was a 2-1 game (in their favor). The Ducks were their victim Friday, but it was by no means an easy win as they had to score twice in the third period and both goals came via the power play. It's not like Dallas is known for being particularly strong when on the man advantage. Certainly they're nowhere near as good as Pittsburgh is on the PP. For the year, the Stars are just 20th w/ the man advantage. Keep in mind that prior to beating Anaheim, they were shutout by Nashville. That was their last road game and they've actually been shutout in two of their last three on the road. A lack of offense clearly won't cut it here. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Dallas (7:05 ET): Houston saw its 17-game run come to an end Friday night in Toronto. I remember that result well, not just because a huge win streak was ended, but due to the fact I was on the Raptors, who I felt provided extraordinary value as a home dog. Now the Rockets are back on the court Sunday and laying a huge number on the road. Because of that win streak, the Rockets figure to be overvalued for awhile and that's clearly the case here. Dallas isn't a good team by any means, but they're better than their record and just won by 34 pts here at home last night. Though they're the ones playing the second night of a back to back, I'd argue the situation is still better for them as both games are at home while Houston is having to travel all the way from Canada w/ just one day in between games. This is also the Rockets' fourth road game in six nights. Take the points.

The Mavericks definitely had a scheduling advantage over last night's opponent, not that they needed it though w/ the team in question being Memphis, who have now lost 17 in a row. The Grizzlies were playing the second of back to back road games while the Mavs hadn't played since upsetting Denver on this floor back on Wednesday. I was on them in that upset as well as they won 118-107 (were +6.5) thanks to a hot shooting second half. Thanks to all the time off, I'm not really concerned at all about this being the second game of a B2B, plus it will be Dallas' fourth consecutive home game. 

Taking advantage of their massive edge in rest, the Mavs jumped out to a 31-13 lead on Memphis last night and never looked back. They allowed only 30 pts in the first half, their best defensive effort in any half this season. Meanwhile, the final score may show Houston lost by only three at Toronto Friday night, but they trailed by as many as 19 in the 1st half. James Harden scored 40 pts, but is officially listed as questionable for tonight (sore left knee), so I really can't understand why the Rockets would be favored by this many. The Mavs may have the same exact record as the Sacramento Kings, but the notion those teams are equally as bad is pretty ludicrous as Dallas' point differential is nowhere near as bad. In fact, Dallas is only being outscored by 2.2 PPG on the season. Despite a 14-21 SU record at home, they've actually outscored opponents here. With or without Harden, the Rockets won't cover tonight. 8* Dallas

8* Calgary (7:05 ET): While the Flames are still very much alive in the Western Conference playoff hunt, the Islanders appear all but done out East. The Isles were a target of a recent play by me, Thursday in Edmonton, and they went down in a shootout by a score of 2-1. I don't think this second game in Alberta will go any better for them. They've now lost eight in a row and despite the last three all coming in extra time (meaning they've still picked up a point), the gap between them and the other Wild Card contenders in the East continues to grow. The Isles are currently nine points back of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Calgary sits 10th out of the 11 teams fighting for eight playoff spots out West. But they are only two points out of playoff position. After B2B road wins, look for the Flames to hold serve on home ice. 

Even before this eight-game losing streak, there was a major reason not to like the Isles and that's they rank dead last in the league in goals allowed. They're giving up an average of 3.5 per game, thereby nullifying the fact they are top eight in the league in scoring. Considering that dichotomy, Thursday was a bitter defeat in Edmonton as they held the Oilers to only one goal after 65 minutes (regulation + OT). Even worse is that the goal they allowed came w/ only 1:50 to go in the third period. Normally, the Islanders don't get that kind of goaltending, but Christopher Gibson stopped 35 of 36 shots. It's likely that Jaroslav Halak will be the one between the pipes tonight though and his save percentage his last four times out is a rather unsightly .868.

As I mentioned above, the Flames are off B2B road wins. They beat Carolina and Ottawa, two not very good teams, by a combined score of 7-2. They've also outshot all four opponents this month, by a pretty significant margin. It's odd that Calgary has struggled this year at the Saddledome where they are only 14-15-4 for the year. But, they are a perfect 6-0 SU on Sundays, no matter where they've played. The next three games, all here at home, are huge considering the Flames will be favored to win all of them and they can't afford losses right now w/ the playoff race so log-jammed. Beating a team in terrible form like the Islanders should not prove difficult, especially considering the Flames won out in Brooklyn last month, 3-2, with a 42-25 edge in shots. 8* Calgary

10* Pennsylvania (12:00 ET): I made a bet bet against Penn Saturday afternoon, completing underestimating the power of their homecourt advantage in this Ivy League Tournament. The Quakers absolutely rolled Yale, winning 80-57 as five-point favorites (in fairness, I wasn't the only one. The line was bet down a couple points before tipoff.) Now, we get the matchup the Ivy League brass was looking for as the top two seeds, Penn and Harvard square off to determine who will move onto the NCAA Tournament. We've seen a lot of upsets in the last 48 hours w/ so-called "bid-thieves" winning their conference tourney. But w/ the Ivy, it should come as no surprise that we have the top two teams in the final. It's only a four-team tournament and one of the co-regular season champs is playing on its home floor. I underestimated that factor for Penn yday, but won't make the same mistake again today. Lay the points. 

Penn and Harvard split the two regular season matchups, each side winning at home. First, it was Harvard's turn in a 76-67 victory on February 10th. But then Penn got some revenge w/ a 74-71 win two weeks later. Note that the Quakers were four-point favorites when they hosted Harvard, so there's some value when you compare that to today's line. Penn is now 12-3 SU this season at The Palestra while outscoring its visitors by 13.7 PPG. They are 9-1 SU as a home favorite. They never trailed on Saturday, took a 19-point lead into halftime and never looked back. They held Yale to only 32.8% shooting from the field.

Likewise, Harvard had no problems beating Cornell on Saturday. The Crimson won 74-55 (as 5.5-pt chalk), but interestingly there was no massive disparity in FG% like there was in the Yale-Penn game. Harvard didn't pull away until the second half and it boiled down to them dominating the glass (leading to 11 more FGA for them) and the three-point line where Harvard had a big edge. Again, I made a bad error in judgement, underrating the Quakers' homecourt advantage yesterday. I won't make the same mistake twice as they certainly appear to be undervalued in Sunday's Final. 10* Pennsylvania

10* Orlando (10:35 ET): The Magic aren't a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but this is far too many points for the Clippers to be laying in the second night of a back to back, especially after last night being a big win over Cleveland. I can see the Clips coming out very disinterested here, which is obviously what you want from the favorite when playing on a double-digit dog. Consider that when these teams met back in December, LA was only a 1.5-pt favorite. While Blake Griffin was still on the roster back then, he didn't play. Now that was also before the "bottom dropped out" for Orlando as they were only 11-17 SU going into that game and now are 20-46 SU. Still though, this is too many points to lay in a B2B.

The Magic are also in a B2B as they were involved in one of the ugliest NBA games of the season last night, losing to sorry Sacramento 94-88. It speaks volumes that you are a dog to the Kings when they are down two starters. That said, the Magic were playing their first game w/o Evan Fournier (torn MCL) and Aaron Gordon didn't play either due to a concussion. Those are the team's top two scorers, so it's a real "rogue's gallery" that Frank Vogel is trotting onto the court these days. Still though, I see value in taking the points tonight. The Clippers are only 2-8 SU this season when playing w/o rest.

You won't find the Clippers laying double digits all that often, especially post-Griffin. In fact, they've been a double digit DOG more times this season than they have a fave (by a count of 6 to 2). The last time the latter situation occurred was back on November 1st vs. Dallas. Orlando just played here at Staples Center on Wednesday when they suffered a controversial, one-point loss to the Lakers. Later, it was determined by the league that the Magic should have gotten a "re-do" of the final play. Yes, this is a third road game out West in four nights. But the Magic only lost the previous two by a total of seven points. They are also 6-1 ATS the last seven times they've been double digit dogs! Hold your nose and take the points as the favorite is unlikely to match last night's intensity and thus comes in way overvalued. 10* Orlando

10* Under Devils/Predators (8:05 ET): Few expected the Devils to be in the position that they're currently in right now, that being a potential playoff team in the East. That said, their hold on said spot is rather precarious right now as they would be the second of two Wild Card entrants (thus drawing Tampa Bay in the 1st round) and hard-charging Florida isn't far behind (only three points). Incredibly though, the gap between New Jersey and the team below them in the Metro standings (Carolina) is almost the same as the gap between NJ and 1st place Pittsburgh! So there's a wide range of options as to where the Devils may finish at season's end. Unfortunately for them though, they are in Nashville tonight. 

The Predators are the hottest team in the league right now, having won 10 games in a row. They have blown by Vegas for the top spot in the Western Conference and are now challenging Tampa Bay (one point back) for the President's Trophy. Keep in mind that when this team made its run to the Stanley Cup Finals last year, they entered as a Wild Card. This year's team is much stronger (i.e. deeper) and ranks in the top 12 in goals scored, goals allowed, penalty killing and the power play. Penalty killing is the only area they are not top six (12th). So, in other words, good luck to Devils tonight trying to win here in Nashville where the Preds have gone 24-7-3 SU this season.

A big reason for the Preds' success is that they rank #1 in the league in goals allowed. They are allowing only 2.5 per game for the year and they've allowed just two total in the last two games, both coming in Thursday's win over Anaheim. New Jersey had no luck finding the back of the net when they hosted Nashville back in late January as they were shutout, 3-0. Pekka Rinne is making a strong case for the Vezina Trophy and has a .942 save percentage his L4 starts. The interesting thing w/ New Jersey's success this year is that its come despite them not being quite as stingy as past seasons. But I expect goaltender Corey Schnieder to play a lot better here than he did against Winnipeg on Thursday when the Devils lost 3-2 despite a 43-24 edge in shots. Six of the Devils last seven games have stayed Under the total. 10* Under Devils/Predators

10* Montana (8:00 ET): This is the Tournament Final in the Big Sky with the top seed Montana facing off w/ the "hottest" team in the conference, that being Eastern Washington. For over a decade, these have been the top two programs in the conference, so they are no strangers to one another nor meeting in this position. Eastern Washington has won eight in a row coming into tonight, covering the spread in all but one of those victories. But they got a break in the semifinals, drawing 10 seed Southern Utah, who upset the #2 seed Idaho the day before. That made for a relatively easy matchup for the Eagles, who won 82-70. Meanwhile, Montana's road here was far more precarious. They needed OT to get by Northern Colorado. But that sets up a strong value play here on the Golden Grizzlies, who also have revenge here. Lay the points. 

In the only regular season meeting between these two, Eastern Washington walked away victorious 74-65 as four-point home dogs. They shot 56.2% from the floor that day (Feb 15th). You can see the value though, as Montana is now laying fewer points at a neutral setting (Reno) than they were in Cheney. Granted, based on the earlier result, oddsmakers had to make some kind of adjustment. I just happen to feel that it is an overadjustment. Montana has been favored in every Big Sky game this season. They are clearly the best team the league has to offer.

That said, the Golden Grizzlies are lucky to be here. They trailed Northern Colorado most of the way last night and were down six w/ just over a minute to go in regulation. The problem they had in that game was the three-point line. Northern Colorado was 7 of 11 from behind the arc while Montana attempted only six three-pointers and made just one (in a game that went to OT!). Note in the regular season matchup with EWU, the Golden Grizzlies attempted 22 three-pointers (made only six). They are admittedly not a great three-pt shooting team, but they do make over 50% of their two-point attempts. Eastern Washington has won only three of the 13 games it has been an underdog this season, two of those coming during the last month. I just can't see Montana slipping up here. 10* Montana

8* Colorado (3:05 ET): This would be the definition of "must-win" for the Avs, who are hosting the worst team in the league at a time they struggling, yet still well within reach of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. While a top three finish in the Central Division is beginning to look less and less likely, the Wild Card is still a distinct possibility here as Colorado enters Saturday one point behind the Kings for the second of the two WC spots. As I I already alluded to, the Avs have not been playing well of late as they've dropped three straight, all by exactly one goal. Meanwhile, Arizona has actually gone 8-2-1 its L11 games, but still has the fewest # of points and the second worst goal differential in the league today.

Colorado has enjoyed a pretty distinct home ice advantage in recent months, going 13-1-1 its last 15 games at the Pepsi Center. One of those two losses took place on Sunday when they hosted red-hot Nashville. That was then followed w/ B2B road losses to Chicago and Columbus. Arizona did come here to Denver and win back in December, but I don't see history repeating itself here. Note that four days before suffering that home loss, the Avs won in Arizona by a score of 6-2. Another key here is the possible return of goalie Jonathan Bernier, who has missed the last 10 games due to a concussion. The team won only 4 of those 10 games, but four losses were in extra time. Bernier brings a .930 save percentage at home, but Semyon Varlamov isn't a bad option either as he's been an even stingier .935.

Colorado ranks 9th in the league in goals per game. That's a huge edge over Arizona, who is 30th (next to last) and there shouldn't be much problem here scoring for the Avs as the 'Yotes rank 26th in goals against. Playing w/ exactly two days' rest (as they are here), Arizona is a hideous 1-10 SU this season. This is the end of a three-game "Northwest" swing for the Coyotes, who played in Edmonton and Vancouver earlier this week. They actually dominated the Canucks (34-17 edge in shots), but those kind of performances have been few and far between for the club in 2017-18. Certainly, I don't expect them to play that well again. Meanwhile, after three straight OT losses, this afternoon is the Avs' time. 8* Colorado

8* Yale (3:00 ET): For the life of me, I can't understand why this line is so high. These teams just met last week, in the second-to-last regular season game for both, and it was Yale prevailing 80-79 as 2.5-pt home dogs. Again, that was clearly a bad line, so I'm not sure why the oddsmakers haven't really adjusted at all for this season's third meeting. Now Penn did win the first meeting, 59-50 as 5.5-pt home chalk, and they are the Ivy League Tournament hosts here as the smallest conference tournament in the country takes place at The Palestra this weekend. But even still, I believe the value is on the dog here in this second of two semifinals today in the Ivy League. Take the points. 

Only the top four teams in the Ivy League qualify for the postseason tournament and this is the #2 vs. #3 seed matchup. Penn tied for Harvard for the regular season crown and had the far better overall record, but is the #2 seed due to a tiebreaker that involved beating Yale. Because Harvard swept Yale and Penn split w/ them, it was Harvard that got the top spot. So, you can definitely say Yake cost Penn the top seed last week. The Bulldogs were somehow able to win despite shooting significantly worse than the Quakers, particularly from three-point range. It's actually pretty impressive that they were able to take the game considering the respective shooting percentages. Yale should shoot much better today while Penn is due for a decline from Saturday's regular season finale vs. Brown where they shot 56.1% overall and 11 of 18 from three-point range. 

Yale comes into the tournament having won and covered four straight. They ended their regular season w/ a 94-90 overtime win over Princeton on Saturday. Three of the wins during the four-game streak have come by four points or fewer. Still, you have to tip your cap to the Bulldogs this season for persevering w/o Makai Mason. They've actually won seven of eight w/ the only loss occurring at Harvard. Yes, it's a big break for Penn that this weekend's games are being contested on their home floor. But they are only 2-6 ATS this season when facing a team that has a winning record. I do not see the Quakers covering the spread in this one. 8* Yale 

10* Toledo (9:00 ET): This is yet another instance of me going w/ a team that has double revenge from the regular season. Yesterday afternoon, this worked out quite well w/ Kansas beating Oklahoma State and there have been several other successful plays earlier in the week. My latest comes from the MAC Tournament where in the second semifinal matchup, Toledo is out for revenge against Eastern Michigan. The Rockets lost both regular season matchups, by six up in Ypsilanti back in late February (85-79, +2.5) and by two in the regular season finale (71-69, -5) at home. I'm sure the players (especially the seniors) haven't forgotten about what happend last week and I'm on the avenging team. 

Toledo did not cover in yesterday's quarterfinal win over Miami (OH). In fact, they barely won. It was a 71-69 final and Miami had a shot to win at the end. However, the Rockets did lead by as many as 12 in the second half. The key was their leading scorer and MAC Player of the Year Tre'Shaun Fletcher leaving w/ a leg/knee injury. Fletcher is currently listed as probable to play tonight and given the circumstance (win or go home!), you have to assume he will be out on the floor. If for some reason he is not (again, I expect he will), we'll then get an inflated line. Note that Fletcher actually played one of his worst games of the season the last time these teams met (9 pts on 3 of 10 shooting) and Toledo still almost won. That game was decided on a three-pointer made by Eastern Michigan's Paul Jackson w/ 8.8 seconds remaining. 

Eastern Michigan would appear to be the "hotter" team coming into tonight as they've won seven in a row, covering the spread in each of the last six. Last night saw a solid defensive performance in a 67-58 win over Akron as six-point chalk. However, be aware that the Eagles trailed by nine at halftime and by as many as 14 in the 2H. They then went on a game-changing 28-4 run to beat the Zips for the first time in six tries in MAC Tourney play. Akron was held w/o a single made basket for the final 6:38 of the game. Simply put, I do not believe that scenario is repeatable here. Also, let's put these teams' respective seasons into some context. Eastern Michigan was only 5-7 SU in MAC play before their current win streak began. Toledo was right behind Buffalo for the top spot most of the season before taking three of its five league losses over the last month. They are the better team, which is not properly reflected by this line. 10* Toledo

10* Under Ducks/Stars (8:35 ET): As most are these days, this is a really key game in the Western Conference. Right now, you essentially have 11 teams competing for the eight playoff spots. The top three in each division are guaranteed entry. Anaheim is third in the Pacific, but just one point behind San Jose (who was a winner for me last night!) and only only point ahead of Los Angeles (who I believe is better than both of its California rivals). Over in the Central, Dallas is in fourth place and has the same number of points as Anaheim (80). The Stars trail third place Minnesota by three points and are ahead of fifth place Colorado by only two. So expect a "playoff-like atmosphere" in this one, which means a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

As I've discussed previously, there's been a transformation w/ the Stars this season and one for the better. In previous seasons, this was an "all offense, no defense" type team. Even when they won the Central two years ago, they still ranked 19th in goals allowed. Last year, they missed the playoffs, sinking all the way down to 29th in goals allowed. This year, they're all the way up to 4th! Unfortunately for them, however, the offense betrayed them in a shutout loss (2-0) to Nashville. It was the third straight game to go Under for the Stars and four of the last five has seen five or fewer total goals scored. That's what I like to see w/ a play like this.

Conversely, Anaheim has been at or near the top of the league in goals allowed the past two seasons. They ranked 1st in 2015-16 and 3rd last season. This year, they're "down" to 6th, but that's just fine (they're also #3 in penalty killing). Ironically, they too are off a loss at Nashville, their coming last night by a score of 4-2. That marked just the third time in the last 13 games that the Ducks allowed three or more goals in regulation. On offense, they are in the bottom 10 in goals per game, so I'll look past the recent uptick in scoring that occurred prior to the Nashville loss. The only prior meeting between these two teams this season took place last month in Anaheim and while Dallas had a 41-17 edge in shots, they were blanked 2-0. That is one of three shutouts for the Ducks in their last eight games overall. Anaheim is also 12-5 Under this year after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. 10* Under Ducks/Stars

8* Memphis (8:05 ET): Welp. There's really no way to sugarcoat how bad things are in Memphis right now where the Grizzlies have lost 15 in a row and sunk to the bottom of the Western Conference standings (18-46 SU). I don't think they are the worst team in the league necessarily (that dubious distinction goes to either Sacramento or Phoenix), even taking into account this horrid stretch of losing. Perhaps it's "grasping for straws," but each of the last five defeats have "only" been by single digits, including a two-point loss at San Antonio Monday. That was followed w/ a nine-point loss at Chicago. But now, at least the Grizz are back home where they're a more respectable 13-20 SU (-2.8 PPG) as opposed to a woeful 5-26 SU mark (-6.7 PPG). Take the points.

Truthfully, this isn't so much any kind of endorsement of the Grizzlies, but rather a repudiation of the Jazz in this price range. There is no denying Utah has been a hot team over the last month as they've won 16 of their last 18 games. But still, they're only tied for ninth in the West (w/ Denver), percentage points back of the Clippers for that coveted eighth and final playoff spot. I did take them earlier in the week, but that was at home against a bad Orlando team. That was followed up w/ a very impressive 20-pt win at Indiana. But now we've reached a point where they've become overvalued. Granted, Memphis probably isn't even as good as Orlando right now. But consider the Grizz are getting basically the same number of points here at home that the Magic were on the road Monday. That doesn't seem right.

I am a little concerned w/ how many points Memphis is going to score here as Utah has been able to five of its last six opponents to 96 pts or less. The Grizzlies are one of only two teams in the league (Sacramento is the other) NOT averaging 100 PPG (they're at 99.1). But Memphis can play defense too. They are allowing just 103.8 PPG. I think the real key here is the pace of the game, which figures to be "sloth-like" considering you've got two of the bottom four teams in adjusted tempo. That right there lends itself to taking the points. Sure enough, Utah is not a road favorite of this size very often. This will be the most points they've laid on the road all season and just the fourth time they've been a road favorite of six points or more. The previous three instances have seem them: lose outright and win the other two by only four and seven points. 8* Memphis

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): What a showdown we have here. On one side, you have the Rockets, winners of 17 in a row and the owners of the best overall record in the league (one-half game ahead of Golden State). So, laying a short number, it's hard to argue w/ them being the "public" side here. However, in "the other corner," you have a Toronto team that has won six in a row and has a very similar overall per game point differential compared to Houston (+8.9 vs. +8.6). But the key here is where the game is taking place. It's "North of the Border" and the Raptors are the best home team in the sport this season, owning a 27-5 SU record w/ a +11.8 point per game differential. This will be just the third time all season that Toronto has been a home dog. They are 2-0 ATS in the role so far. So forget about any perceived "value" on the Rockets; the true value here is on the Raptors. 

The situation also isn't great for Houston, who will be playing its third road game in four nights. Wednesday, they beat Milwaukee 110-99, which is impressive considering the Rockets were off a win in OKC the previous night. Five of their previous seven wins have been by double digits. Five of the seven wins have also come on the road. But as hot as Houston is right now (and there's no denying how well they're playing), I just don't agree w/ them being the favorite here. They are just 1-8 ATS vs. the Atlantic Division this season, including an outright loss (at home) to these Raptors, 129-113, back on November 14th. 

Houston is 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency while Toronto is 4th. But the Raptors have the edge defensively, ranking 3rd in efficiency while the Rockets are 10th. Yes, Toronto did need overtime and 42 pts from DeMar DeRozan to get by Detroit (on the road) Wednesday night. But I've been impressed w/ how the Raptors have continued to win despite being held below their scoring average in regulation each of the last four games. As an underdog, the Raptors are 8-3 ATS this season. I like them in this battle of conference leaders that is a legit potential NBA Finals preview. The homecourt edge coupled w/ Houston's schedule, and the fact the Raptors are getting points, is simply too good to pass up. 10* Toronto

8* St. Joseph's (2:30 ET): Twice these teams met in the regular season and both times George Mason pulled an upset. The first time was in Fairfax w/ the Patriots winning 81-79 as four-point pups. Then in Philly, they won 79-76 as seven-point pups. Going back to last season, they've actually now upset the Hawks three straight times as the lone meeting in 2017 saw the Patriots prevail (again in Philly), 75-67 as four-point pups. But in addition to getting some nice line value on the favorite here (especially compared to 1st meeting when St. Joe's was a four-point favorite on the road), GMU finds itself at a distinct disadvantage as the lower seed because they had to play yday while the Hawks did not. Lay the points here.

I just can't see George Mason pulling a third upset here. There really hasn't been an upset in the A-10 Tourney so far, unless you want to count 13-seed UMass beating 12-seed LaSalle in the opening round. The top eight seeds have all advanced to the quarterfinals, with the top four (St. Joe's counted among them) all getting double byes to this point. Now many of the games have been close here in D.C. Case in point, George Mason won by only five yday, although they were only 1.5-pt favorites. The keys were FT shooting and second chance points as the Patriots did not make a field goal in the game's final four minutes and were outshot, 53.2% to 35.9%. Really, it's game - that on paper - they "should have" lost. But sinking 28 of 31 free throws plus converting 20 offensive rebounds into 26 points was huge. Note that while the Patriots come into this game having won four of five, all four wins were by five points or less.

Meanwhile, St. Joe's has been off for nearly a week and ended its regular season on a three-game SU and ATS win streak. We last saw the Hawks winning at home over LaSalle, 78-70 as 3.5-pt home chalk. But, by far, the most notable thing on their resume was their 30-point beatdown of A-10 regular season champ Rhode Island (on the road!) the game before LaSalle. That right there tells me this is a team to be feared (a win here sets up another game vs. URI potentially). I think it speaks volumes GMU was only a 1.5-pt fave over the 13-seed yday. The Hawks have covered three straight times when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. 8* St. Joseph's

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): In a Western Conference playoff race that runs 11 teams deep, neither the Sharks nor the Blues can be feeling very good about themselves right now, St. Louis in particular. The Blues are sixth in the Central Division and while only two points back of the final Wild Card spot, they actually have to jump three teams. San Jose is third in the Pacific, meaning they'd be guaranteed a playoff spot, but has only a two-point edge over the Kings and the Ducks recently passed them for second place. Both teams were at one point considered very probable playoff contenders. Now both are in dire need of two points. 

Things have gone very badly for the Blues dating back to mid-February as they have lost eight of their last nine games. I have been on the correct side of each of their last three games, including the lone win during the nine-game stretch, that coming at home against Detroit on 2.28. At the time, I wrote how important that game was for them as it was their only home game from 2.24 to 3.15. They were also coming off an ugly 8-3 loss to Minnesota the previous night. As alluded to, they did beat the Red Wings, but the good times did not last as they fell in OT at Dallas on Saturday afternoon. All this time off to prepare them for the dreaded Southern California trip seems nice, but time off alone cannot cure all that ails this club. Two key players - defenseman Jay Bouwemeester and forward Scottie Upshall - were injured Saturday and will miss significant time. That's the last thing this team needed right now. Also, their one strength, goaltending, has taken a dive recently w/ both Carter Hutton and Jake Allen posting sub-.900 save percentages their last four starts each.

San Jose has the league's top penalty killing unit, so they match up well w/ a St. Louis team that is 29th on the power play. The Blues also don't score much period as they are 25th in goals per game. There have been only two times in the nine-game swoon where the Blues have scored more than two goals. One of them was against Minnesota when they also happened to give up eight! Prior to losing to Columbus at home on Sunday (so Sharks are well-rested too), the Sharks had won B2B games here, beating Edmonton and Chicago while scoring 12 goals in the process. 8* San Jose

8* Louisiana Tech (9:30 ET): I know the Bulldogs had to win last night (beat North Texas 68-62 as 3.5-pt favorites) and thus face an "uphill climb" here against second seeded Old Dominion in the C-USA tournament. However, this is a lot of points. They were only a 2.5-pt home dog to the Monarchs when they dropped the lone regular season meeting, albeit by a score of 82-69. ODU shot a pretty ridiculous 56.6% from the field that day, also knocking down 10 of the 20 three-point attempts they took. I do not anticipate that kind of offensive efficiency here. ODU is a hot team entering this tournament (won 8 of 9), but they really haven't played anyone of any real substance during that stretch. They're overvalued and I'll take the points.

Note that despite being the lower seed yday, Louisiana Tech didn't really "upset" North Texas, at least in the eyes of the oddsmakers as they were installed as favorites. The Bulldogs went into halftime w/ a four point lead and never trailed in the second half. What was the key? Nothing in particuar, honestly, although some good free throw shooting late put the game out of reach. It was also the fewest points the Bulldogs allowed in a game since a 73-60 win over UAB back on February 15th. In between those two wins, they did lose four straight, but three of those games were on the road and the other was to regular season champ Middle Tennessee. It goes w/o saying that the Bulldogs are playing w/ "house money" here. 

As for ODU, despite finishing second in the regular season, they probably need to win the tournament this weekend to have any shot at the Big Dance. Don't be shocked if they are already looking ahead to a potential semifinal matchup w/ Western Kentucky, who destroyed them late in the regular season, 88-66. This being the last quarterfinal of the day is a break for La Tech, who played yesterday. Were it an earlier game, I might be less inclined to take the points. But at the very worst, I sense the backdoor will open late in this game and don't discount that lookahead factor mentioned above. While ODU delivered multiple routs down the home stretch of the regular season, they also had four wins by exactly five points. I anticipate a close game here. 8* Louisiana Tech

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): The Oilers are arguably the league's biggest disappointment this season, but that didn't stop me from taking them Monday and they beat Arizona 4-3 in overtime. Now there really isn't anything special about beating arguably the worst team in the league, at home. However, tonight's matchup also seems ideal. They'll host the rapidly fading Islanders, who are losers of seven in a row and in last place in the Metro. Making this an even better matchup from Edmonton's perspective is the fact the Isles are one of only two teams giving up more goals per game they are! In fact, the Isles allow the most goals per game in the league! Look for the Oilers to take advantage of that and get the two points. 

Edmonton has been killed by their special teams this season as they rank last in the league both on the power play and penalty killing. They are only 20th in goals per game, but given the number of shots per game we see from them, that ranking should probably be higher. Opposing goaltenders have a .917 save percentage against them, but they shouldn't have to worry about the Islanders' defense, which gives up a ton of shots in addition to the most goals per game. Likely starting here for NY is Jaroslav Halak, whose save percentage is an ugly .868 the L4 games. In Monday's OT loss at Vancouver, Halak surrendered four goals on only 23 shots. Edmonton is near the top of the league w/ an average of 34.0 per game. The Islanders allow the most at 35.7 per game. 

Edmonton won out in Brooklyn way back in November. They've also beaten the Islanders six of the last seven times they've hosted them. While three of the games during the Isles' seven-game skid have come in extra time, they are an ideal matchup for the Oilers based not only on history, but based on the fact they are just as bad at giving up goals (actually worse) and equally as bad at penalty killing. I look for Edmonton to win a relatively high scoring affair here. 10* Edmonton

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): There has to be a real sense of urgency for the Thunder right now as they've lost B2B games to fellow Western Conference powerhouses and have fallen to 7th in the standings. There are four teams in the West that currently have win streaks of at least six games. Those are now the top four - Houston, Golden State, Portland and New Orleans. Then you have San Antonio and Minnnesota. So if the Thunder want to improve their playoff position (and I'm sure they do!), they have to turn things around in a hurry. Fortunately for this evening, they draw the lowly Suns at home. This should be the proverbial 'get well' spot for OKC. Lay the points.

Phoenix is very bad. They have the dubious distinction of owning the worst point differential in the league at -8.3 per game. Keep in mind that most teams they face aren't as good as the Thunder. Since the start of February, the Suns have dropped 13 of 14 games overall w/ the lone win coming at the expense of a Memphis team that has now lost its last 15 games. Defensively, the Suns have been a disaster. They give up the most PPG in the league (113.3) and are dead last in efficiency as well. The offensive numbers aren't that inspiring either. They average 104.7 PPG, but that's only because they play at a fast pace. They're actually 28th in offensive efficiency. Monday night saw them get buried in the second night of a back to back, losing 125-103 at Miami.

Going back to last year, the Thunder have had some curious struggles w/ the Suns. They'd actually lost three straight times to them, but that was before Saturday's 124-116 win in the desert. Note that the last four meetings have all taken place in Phoenix. Saturday saw them have to rally in the 4Q, but Russell Westbrook's 43 pts turned out to be the difference. Looking at the line from Saturday (it was OKC -7.5 on the road), it sure looks as if we're getting some value on them tonight. Yes, I know the Thunder are off B2B losses, but those were against two of the hottest teams in the league right now, Portland and Houston. This is a major drop in class and I look for OKC to be a lot better defensively tonight than they have been since the All-Star Break. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Kansas (2:30 ET): I absolutely love this matchup as the top-seeded Jayhawks come in not only w/ a case of double revenge, but also the advantage of a bye. Oklahoma State, who shockingly won both regular season matchups against the Jayhawks, had to win yday (over rival Oklahoma) just to get here. Kansas has been off since Saturday when they were humiliated down in Stillwater, losing 82-64 as 3.5-pt favorites. I can't see them losing to the Pokes for a second straight time, let alone a third time this season. Note this spread is nearly identical to what Bill Self's team was laying last weekend in Stillwater and now we're at a neutral setting. Lay the points. 

Oklahoma State is obviously fighting for its NCAA Tournament life right now. According to the "esteemed" Joe Lunardi, the Cowboys are among the "first four out" of the field of 68, but he also has Oklahoma among the last four "in." There is no denying that the Pokes are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have covered the number in five straight, winning four of the five straight up and the one loss was by a point at Texas. Last night, they led Oklahoma by as many as 16 pts despite not even shooting the ball relatively well. But this is obviously a very quick turnaround, something that puts them at a distinct disadvantage (which should be the case for the lower seed).

History is NOT on OSU's side here. Granted, they did become the first team to swep a regular season series from Kansas in the Bill Self era. But the last time the Jayhawks lost to the same opponent three times in the same season was 1983! Now KU didn't lead at all in the regular season finale and shot just 41.7% from the floor in what was their worst effort of the year. Consider that they shot 50% or better from the floor each of the L3 games, twice topping 60%. Yes, there is bad news in that they must open this Tournament w/o Udoka Azubuike, who sprained his knee in practice on Tuesday. With that news and the fact OK State swept the regular season series (and is a bubble team to boot), it's easy to understand why this spread is several points lower than it ought to be. Bottom line is there's a ton of value on Kansas though, who remember is fighting to be a #1 seed next week. 10* Kansas

8* Memphis (2:30 ET): Memphis basketball is seemingly NOT in a good place right now w/ rumors abound that Tubby Smith will be replaced as head coach in favor of famous alum Anfernee "Penny" Hardaway. Smith has hardly been a great fit here, but it is worth nothing that the Tigers are playing arguably their best basketball of the season for their embattled head coach. They closed the regular season by winning five of six and are the fifth seed in the American Conference Tournament. That's not a bad spot to be in considering there's only three NCAA Tourney teams in this league and Memphis can avoid all of them until the semifinals. This afternoon, they look to avenge that one loss over the last six games, as they face last place South Florida.

USF has won B2B games coming into this weekend's tournament in Orlando. How rare is that? Well, before the B2B wins, they stood at 1-15 SU in conference play. They snapped an eight-game losing streak when they stunned Memphis (on the road!) 75-51 as 13.5-point dogs exactly one week ago. Consider that Memphis went into that game off four consecutive outright wins as an underdog! So, what happened? Well, it was basically one big half for the Bulls (first) as they led wire to wire. Memphis turning the ball over 10 times in the 1H and shooting only 3 of 19 from three-point range certainly didn't help matters either. USF would then go on to upset slumping SMU, 65-54 as 8.5-pt dogs, on Sunday.

Needless to say, I do not see history repeating itself this week. USF simply isn't very good. They did have a three-game win streak back in December, but that was at the expense of three very bad teams, one of them a non-board team. This is the 1st time all season the Bulls have won and covered consecutive games. The two wins have seen them turn in their two best defensive efforts of the conference slate. I expect them to regress here. Yes, it's a little dangerous to endorse Memphis given the off the court turmoil, but they've scored 83 or more points in three of the last four games. They closed the regular season w/ a 90-70 thumping of East Carolina and can do the same to the only team that finished below ECU in the AAC standings. By the way, Memphis did go to South Florida and win earlier in the season, 86-74 as 8.5-pt chalk. We're laying a smaller price here at a neutral site. 8* Memphis

10* Under Pelicans/Kings (10:05 ET): Somebody break up the Pelicans! This team is on fire right now, having won nine in a row to climb up to fourth in the Western Conference (ahead of Minnesota, San Antonio and OKC!). They have an inferior YTD point differential compared to the teams they are competing w/ for seeding, but that hasn't mattered lately thanks to a string of high-scoring performances, including a 121-116 road win over the Clippers last night. Incredibly, the team has topped 120 points in all nine wins during the active streak, averaging an insane 126.1 PPG during that time. That level of scoring HAS to start coming down sooner or later and looking at tonight's dance partner, I see an Under being in the cards.

Given how much they've been scoring, it should not come as a shock to hear that NO has also gone Over in seven straight games. When it comes to scoring, they've been remarkably consistent since the All-Star Break, scoring in the 121-126 range all six games. Note, however, that two of those games did go into overtime. That would be the first two post-Break, wins over Miami and Milwaukee. Really, when you look at the schedule, it shouldn't come as a huge surprise that the Pelicans have been able to win nine in a row. They've been a dog four times, yes, but looking back those were clearly all "bad" lines. Certainly, I'm not going to argue w/ them being a road favorite tonight, given all Sacramento's woes. Furthermore, the total should be high considering the Pelicans are the ONLY team in the league to be scoring and allowing over 111 PPG this season.

But Sacramento's involvement here is what lends to a play on the Under. The Kings are 30th in the league in offensive efficiency and one of only two teams that don't average 100 PPG. Defensively, they're not good either, but even so their games average only 206.2 PPG. They've been held to 102 pts or less in four of the last five games, though they are off a rare win (beat the Knicks 102-99 on Sunday). By the way, that one game in the last five where the Kings managed to score more was an overtime game vs. Brooklyn. It was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation. So like New Orleans, recent scoring has been inflated by games going into OT. This O/U line just seems too high. 10* Under Pelicans/Kings

10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): The Canucks rarely - if ever - receive an endorsement from me, but before you go writing this play off as a byproduct of a small NHL card Wednesday, take a look at the opponents. It's that same Arizona team we played against two nights ago (in Edmonton) and came away w/ a winning ticket. Coming into this season, the Coyotes were projected to be the worst team in the league and they have not disappointed, ranking last in points and goal differential. Their eight road wins are also the fewest in the league. Vancouver isn't too far ahead of them, and certainly a bottom five team themselves, but this is one spot where they absolutely deserve to be favored and should win. 

Sure enough, the Canucks are already in off a win here as they beat the Islanders 4-3 Monday night. The win took place here on home ice and it was the seventh time in the last eight games they scored at least three goals. That kind of production sure comes in handy when facing the 30th ranked team in goals per game (out of 31). Now Vancouver is w/o leading scorer Brock Boeser for the rest of the season as the rookie sustained a pretty serious back injury in closing minutes of regulation vs. the Isles. But the team did manage to win w/o him, scoring 2:47 into overtime. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking the Canucks are a "good" home team, but they certainly are more than capable of beating Arizona on home ice.

Arizona has gone 7-2-1 its L10 games, but that recent success is what made it such an easy decision to fade them at Edmonton Monday as the likelihood of them sustaining it seemed small. Over the L5 games, they've averaged less than 2.0 goals per game and on the road this season they're being outscored by more than a full goal per game. Goaltending has never been a strong point w/ this team and their one decent one (Antti Ranta) is battling a lower-body injury. Jacob Markstrom is no "world beater" for the Canucks either, but made 41 saves in a win at Arizona two weeks ago. That result improved Vancouver to 7-3 the L10 meetings. 10* Vancouver

10* Ole Miss (9:30 ET): As a 7-seed, South Carolina made a somewhat improbable Final Four runs last year, although their defensive efficiency rating should have told you such a run was possible. This year, things aren't looking so good for Frank Martin's Gamecocks. Eight SEC teams are currently projected to be in the field of 68, yet USC isn't one of them as they finished just 7-11 SU in conference play. There has been success at the betting window (6-0 ATS L6), but much of it has come from the underdog role. Consider they lost three of those six straight games that they've covered in. In the 1st round of the SEC Tournament, the Gamecocks draw Ole Miss, who has "nothing to lose" and will have confidence from the fact they beat South Carolina in the lone regular season meeting between the two. Take the points. 

That win over South Carolina, 73-69 back on New Year's Eve, stands as one of the few highlights of the Rebels' 2018 season. They finished last in the conference (5-13 SU overall) and have dropped 10 of the last 11 overall. A majority of the recent defeats have been by double digits. However, they have beaten teams such as Missouri, Alabama and Florida, in addition to South Carolina. As bad as things have looked in Oxford, remember the Rebels finished only two games back of South Carolina in the SEC standings. Ole Miss had to endure a mid-season coaching change as well w/ Andy Kennedy stepping down and Tony Madlock taking over on an interim basis. That's never easy. Not only are the Rebels 1-10 SU their L11 games, they are also 1-10 ATS! Yet, it's curious that they'd still come in as such a short underdog. Ole Miss has won at least one SEC Tournament game five of the past seven seasons. 

I admit that the basis of this play is that both teams are unlikely to continue their respective ATS streaks moving forward. It's pretty rare that we see such polar opposite streaks coincide at the betting window. Ole Miss actually was favored, albeit at home, in that regular season meeting. Note tonight marks only the fourth time in the past 16 games that South Carolina has been favored. There will be no Final Four run this year in Columbia as the Gamecocks seem poised to suffer an embarrassing upset tonight. 10* Ole Miss

8* Florida State (12:00 ET): This is a key matchup for both teams as a loss could prove extremely detrimental to the respective NCAA Tournament cases. Louisville, which has had to endure a horrendous year off the court, comes in at 19-12 SU overall and has dropped four of five. As of yday, they were considered "the first four out" among bracketologists. Florida State is in a slightly better spot as they're a "consensus" 9-seed right now, which makes you think it would take a lot of "bid theives" to knock them from the field of 68. Still, same as Louisville, the 'Noles don't want to lose in this spot. These teams split two regular season matchups, each winning on the other's floor. So what is the key in a matchup that seems so even? Well, it's all about recent form. 

Now, FSU hasn't exactly been "firing on all cylinders" itself these past few weeks as they've dropped four of seven themselves. In their last two victories, they had to rally both times and that was against Boston College and Pitt, two of the ACC's worst teams. The Seminoles have not been strong at the betting window down the stretch as they come into the Conference Tournament on a 0-6-1 ATS run. (That push occurred in the reg season finale vs. BC). But interestingly enough, the 'Noles last cover came back when they went to Louisville and upset the Cardinals (were 3-pt underdogs), 80-76. In both matchups w/ Louisville, FSU was able to dominate the boards and that's what I anticipate happening again in this rubber match. 

Louisville had to play North Carolina, Duke and Virginia down the stretch, losing to all three, w/ the home loss to UVA being the most infamous and painful. Once upon a time, this team was sitting pretty at 10-2 SU, but they've basically been a .500 team ever since w/ no true impressive victories. Perhaps the scandal that has engulfed the program has finally gotten the players. But whatever the reason for the late season swoon, it seems irreversible at this point. They've given up an average of 77.2 PPG their L5 contests and Florida State comes in averaging 82.0 PPG itself. Note that in Louisville's win over FSU, they trailed by as many as 17 points. The Seminoles' ability to get to the FT line may ultimately end up being the difference in this one. 8* Florida State

10* Portland State (11:05 ET): Handicapping this game reminds me a bit of a matchup I had my eyes on last night (but did not play) between Ohio and Miami, out in the MAC. There the favorite was playing w/ double revenge and got the easy cover as a favorite. Now the RedHawks weren't favored by quite as much as Portland State is here, and they were playing at home w/ immediate revenge as Ohio had come in and beaten them in the reg season finale. But, nevertheless, I think the comparison stands. Portland State has double revenge here, which is something no team should really ever have against Sacramento State. I look for the Vikings to win in a rout tonight as the third time will be the charm. Lay the points. 

Sacramento State has won just ONE game away from home all season (1-17 SU overall). That was at Portland State back on January 27th as they pulled off a somewhat improbable 71-61 victory as 11.5-pt dogs. As alluded to earlier, they also beat Portland State at home, 80-75 as 8.5-pt home dogs. Given that they were getting 8.5 pts at home against this same opponent, it sure looks like there's some real value on the other side in this neutral setting (Reno). Sacramento State finished the regular season w/ another upset, this time over Northern Colorado, but the record is still only 7-24 SU overall and 4-14 SU vs. conference opponents. The Hornets have never won B2B games this season and were winless in February. The win over Northern Colorado last Saturday snapped a nine-game losing skid. 

Portland State finished sixth in the Big Sky standings, thanks to a tiebreaker over Idaho State. The Vikings aren't going to look past this opening round matchup, given what happened in the regular season. This is a high-scoring team, one that averages an impressive 86.8 PPG, third most in the entire country. Sacramento State is averaging only 67.4 PPG. Yet somehow they shot better than 60% from the floor in the first meeting w/ Portland State. Even more shocking though was PSU only shooting 34.4% in the rematch and finishing w/ only 61 pts. The Vikings were a combined 13 of 49 from three-point range in the two games, a percentage they should improve upon exponentially here. I'm expecting a rout tonight. 10* Portland State

10* Under Capitals/Ducks (10:05 ET): These two each won their respective divisions last season, but 2017-18 is proving to be a bit more challenging for both. The Caps are in first place in the Metro, mind you, but are nowhere near as dominant as they were a season ago. That said they did just beat Toronto 5-2 in an outdoor game in Annapolis, scoring all five goals in the first two periods. Anaheim is also in off B2B victories and scored a ton in their last one as well. They beat Chicago 6-3 here at The Pond back on Sunday. It's been a high-scoring homestand thus far for the Ducks, but w/ the Caps having to "readjust" after playing outdoors and these being two good teams, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair tonight. Take the Under.

Tonight wraps up a four-game homestand for the Ducks and so far all three games have gone Over. Things started w/ a 6-5 loss to Edmonton, but they've since rallied for a 4-2 win over Columbus and the aforementioned 6-3 win over Chicago. It's not like this offensive surge is commonplace for the Ducks, who rank only 22nd in the league in goals per game. Consider in the three previous games, all were shutouts, two in their favor and one not. They do rank 6th in the league in goals allowed and are 5th in penalty killing. Note that projected starting goalie John Gibson has a ridiculously good .945 save percentage his L4 starts. He's 7-1-1 since the Break, which has allowed Anaheim to crawl (skate?) back into playoff position.

Washington will play its next three game all out in California w/ stops in LA and San Jose to follow. They've had issues keeping the opponent out of the back of the net in road games this season, but Braden Holtby figures to be a lot more stout here than he was outdoors vs. Toronto. Holtby also struggled in Columbus last week, but again Anaheim is hardly prolific and biorhythms suggests both offenses are bound to cool off here. In fact, the Ducks have yet to go Over in four consecutive games at any point this season, going 3-0 Under when they are off three straight Overs, a trend that applies tonight. Washington has been held to three or fewer goals in six of its last eight games overall. 10* Under Capitals/Ducks 

8* Dallas (8:35 ET): Denver sure caught me by surprise when they went into Cleveland Saturday and came away w/ an impressive looking 126-117 victory. It's not that beating the Cavs is all that irregular these days, but the Nuggets were playing their third game in four nights and second of a back to back. They've now gotten to enjoy the last two days off (will host Cleveland tomm night), but finish up the road trip tonight in Dallas. Obviously, it's been a tumultuous time for the Mavericks. Mark Cuban advocating tanking, front office misbehavior and a 19-45 overall record are just some of the lowlights of this season. They've lost seven of eight w/ a 1-5 SU mark since the All-Star Break. But they are 3-0 ATS vs. Denver this year and I think a good value plus the points tonight. 

Denver's only previous venture into Big D this season resulted in a 17-point loss. That was all the way back in December. They twice hosted the Mavs in January and while they won both times, it was by a combined five points and they failed to cover each time. Therefore, this line looks a bit high to me and you have to figure the public is going to be all over the short road favorite. But Denver is only 4-7 ATS as road chalk this season. Offensively, they have been on fire of late, but the Mavs are known to play at one of the league's slowest paces and I believe can slow the game down enough to where taking the points is the smart option here. 

Denver has won four straight on the road coming into tonight, something they had not done since December of 2013. Two of the wins were against Phoenix and Memphis, however. Defense is another issue we should talk about as not only have the Nuggets given up an average of 115.8 points the last five games, they are giving up 109.9 PPG for the season. Given that they are being outscored by four points per game away from home and playing their fourth game in seven nights, fading makes a ton of sense. I've said this before, but Dallas has played better than its record shows as they're only being outscored by 2.9 PPG for the year. Prior to winning the last four, Denver was just 7-19 SU on the road this season. 8* Dallas 

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): In my analysis of the Ottawa-Dallas game last night, I wrote that it was a game the Stars "needed badly." But because of the money line, I opted to instead play the total (Under), which won. Good thing I did because the Stars lost to one of the five worst teams in the league, 3-2 in overtime, at home no less. That makes tonight's spot, which was going to be tough to begin with, even tougher. Dallas visits Nashville here and the Preds have won eight in a row to take control of the Central Division. Last year's Stanley Cup runner-ups are now thinking President's Trophy as they have the most points in the Western Conference and are just one point behind Tampa Bay for the overall league lead. It only seems logical to endorse them on home ice, facing an unrested foe.

The Preds' eight-game win streak has seen them outscore the opposition by more than a 2:1 margin (37-18). There have been some close calls recently, such as the 4-3 overtime win at Colorado on Sunday (I had them there!). But note that was also the team's third road game in four nights and the previous two were up in Western Canada. The trip also began w/ a 6-5 win at Winnipeg, which is very impressive. Now Nashville is back home where they've gone 22-7-3 SU this season. Really, I'm surprised that the home record isn't even better as they're outscoring visitors by a full goal per game at Bridgestone Arena. They're #6 in goals per game at home and overall this season. Combine that w/ the fact they are #3 in goals allowed and you have yourself a team that belongs on EVERYONE's short list for Stanley Cup contenders.

Losing to a bad team wasn't the only bad news to come out of last night's game for Dallas. Goalie Ben Bishop also left w/ a knee injury and will miss at least two games. He wasn't going to start tonight anyway, but it's absolutely worth noting that backup Kari Lehtonen has a poor .899 save percentage in division games. The Stars were already banged up even before the Bishop injury as three forwards will be missing this game as well. Last night's loss may prove very costly for Dallas in the big picture and it definitely hurts them tonight. 8* Nashville

8* Utah (9:05 ET): Utah went into the All-Star Break as the hottest team in the league as they had won 11 straight games. However, that win streak didn't even allow them to crack the top eight in the Western Conference! Entering tonight, they are still in 10th place, but now trail 8th place Denver by only two games. That's despite having now won 14 of the last 16 games. I had them as a big play Friday night (*10* Game of the Week) over Minnesota and they responded in kind by covering the spread. However, they failed to do so Saturday in a 98-91 win at Sacramento. It's another big number tonight, but one that's certainly justifiable as Orlando comes to town. The Magic have won B2B games for just the second time since November. Lay the points.

Orlando has beaten Detroit (in OT) and Memphis (lousy) the last two games. Both were at home. Both were close games. Obviously, the game vs. the Pistons was as it went into overtime. But note the Magic actually trailed in the game, by seven points, w/ fewer than five minutes to go in regulation. Against Memphis, the game was tied w/ 22.5 seconds remaining, so bettors should definitely have felt fortunate to walk away w/ a push there. Prior to winning the last two games, Orlando had lost seven in a row. This is a team w/ just two road wins since X-Mas and they're 7-25 SU for the year away from home and giving up over 111 PPG. When they hosted Utah back in November, it was an ugly affair w/ the Jazz coming in and winning by FORTY as six-point underdogs. Clearly, the two teams have gone off in very different directions since then. 

Utah does it w/ defense as they've held three of their previous four opponents under 100 pts. Here at home, they are allowing just 98.5 PPG for the season. In the aforementioned thrashing of Orlando that took place back in November, they held the Magic to only 85 points on 38.3% shooting. Rudy Gobert has been the key here and in the last two games he's gone for a combined 42 points, 28 rebounds and seven blocks. Orlando has shot better than 50% in both of its recent wins, but that's unlikely to happen here as I see the Jazz rolling to another easy victory. 8* Utah

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): This has been a real "downer" of a season for the Oilers, but if there's one matchup they should be able to take full advantage of, it's this one where they're hosting the lowly Coyotes. The difference between these two teams is that while Edmonton has been a giant disappointment, Arizona has been every bit as bad as expected. The 'Yotes currently rank last in the league in points (50), have the second worst goal differential (-54) and are second worst in goals scored per game (2.4). The Oilers have lost three in a row, but have legit revenge here after being shutout in the desert, 1-0, back on February 17th.

I look for 2018-19 to be a big bounce back season for Edmonton. But for now they'll just have to resign themselves to the fact this wasn't their year. Following LY's renaissance, fans were thinking the team would be a Cup contender this year. But things got off to a disastrous start and they never recovered. However, one thing the team does well is get the puck on net, especially at home. Edmonton is averaging 36.1 shots per game at home, one of the best marks in the league. They are actually seventh in the league right now in shot per game differential. One would think that would translate into more victories, but it hasn't. The problem has been lousy goaltending (team is 31st in save percentage) coupled w/ ridicuously good goaltending from the opposition. Opposing goalies have posted a .917 save percentage vs. the Oilers this season.

Arizona is not strong between the pipes however, and I look for that to be key here tonight. Antii Ranta will be the starting goalie for the 'Yotes and while he turned in a 40-save shutout the last time against the Oilers, I don't see a strong likelihood of him duplicating that performance. Arizona is tied for the fewest number of road wins in the league w/ just eight. Now I should mention they've been playing well of late, winning B2B games and seven of their last nine. But despite all that, they're still at the bottom of the league. Two points haven't come easy for the Oilers all season, but they should here. 10* Edmonton

8* Gonzaga (9:00 ET): While the 'Zags have been exerting their usual dominance over the rest of the WCC (save for St. Mary's) this season, oddsmakers have had their way w/ them. Routinely facing double-digit spreads, often north of 20 pts, Gonzaga is a money-burning 7-12 ATS in conference play. That may not sound all that bad, but consider they opened by covering four of their first five. So that means they are just 3-11 ATS since and sure enough they failed to cover the spread in their first WCC Tourney game, an 83-69 triumph over Loyola Marymount (were -19). The spread is now lower though as they face San Francisco in the semifinals (winner plays BYU-St. Mary's winner). I'm going to lay the points here. 

We are getting what looks to be some really solid value here when you consider Gonzaga was a 14.5-pt choice AT San Francisco back on January 13th. The Zags won that game by only 10 pts, 75-65, which is what actually kickstarted this ATS slide. While that spread may have been too high and - clearly - so was the 18.5-pt number when they faced the Dons at home two weeks later (won 82-73), this one is a lot more manageable. Gonzaga shot 50% or better in both games vs. USF in the regular season and comes in averaging 84.7 PPG. I find it a little odd then that they failed to reach their scoring average in both matchups. San Francisco was able to slow the games down a bit, but they didn't get to the free throw line much either time. The Dons have lost 40 of the last 45 matchups vs. Gonzaga. 

San Francisco needed overtime to get here as they beat Pacific by one point, 71-70, in the quarterfinals. Not having to play the next day is a break, but the bottom line here is that the Dons are still outclassed. Sure, Gonzaga pretty much sleepwalked through the win over Loyola Marymount. They led by only one at halftime after turning the ball over seven times in the first 13 minutes. But after the break, the offense caught fire and was shooting 80% before garbage time. That shows me that the Bulldogs can pretty much "name the score" here and the key is that this is the lowest pointspread for any Gonzaga WCC game (save for St. Mary's or BYU) all season. 8* Gonzaga 

8* Under Senators/Stars (8:35 ET): Dallas needs this game badly. They're at home and facing one of the bottom five teams in the league. Entering tonight, they have a three-point cushion on a Wild Card spot, but are also only two points back of third place Minnesota in the Central. Again, given the "lay of the land," Ottawa is a team they have to beat. The oddsmakers are all too aware of this, however, and have installed the Stars as massive money line favorites. So, for me, that's really not an option. But where I do see value is the total as Dallas' reputation for playing high-scoring games has not really played out this season. Take the Under. 

Saturday, I had the Stars as they picked up a key win over St. Louis, 3-2 in overtime. In my analysis of that matchup, I noted the transformation that has taken place here in "Big D" this season as goaltending has led the way and will be the reason this team likely makes the playoffs. The Stars are 4th right now in goals allowed, a massive jump from last year when they ranked near the bottom of the league in that department. At home, they've been even stingier, giving up an average of just 2.43 goals per game. Now there have been some recent "hiccups" in that department as the Stars have allowed five or more goals four times in the nine games. But they've allowed two or fewer in each of the other five, including two shutouts.Ben Bishop is the likely starter in goal tonight and he's been outstanding all year at home w/ a .930 save percentage. \

Ottawa stinks, no matter how you slice it. They have just one win in the last seven games and ironically it came at Vegas of all places. That was a 5-4, but other than that they haven't scored more than three goals in a game since 2.17. They are 24th in the league in scoring. (Dallas, for the record, has a "middle of the road" 15th place ranking in that department). The Sens just lost 2-1 to Arizona on Saturday as they generated only 24 shots on goal. The key here will be keeping the Dallas' offense in check, but in a battle of two teams that are either average or well below average in goal scoring, I see no reason why the O/U line should be this high. 8* Under Senators/Stars

8* Detroit (7:05 ET): No way I'd want to lay this many points w/ Cleveland right now as the fact of the matter is this just may be a mediocre team. Truthfully, were it not for LeBron James on the roster, this is a team I'd be salivating to bet against in the first round of the playoffs. They've barely outscored the opposition this year, are 28th in defensive efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento & Phoenix) and probably most damning of all is their historically bad ATS record of 19-42-1, which includes an even worse mark of 10-37 when favored. Right before the All-Star Break, the front office shook up the roster big-time and wins over Boston and OKC seemed to indicate a corner had been turned. Not so fast, however. Since the Break, the Cavs have gone just 2-4 SU w/ the wins coming over Memphis and Brooklyn. All but one of the games took place here at home as well. Now they'll be w/o Tristan Thompson for "multiple games" due to an ankle injury. No thanks, Cleveland. I'll take the points. 

Now Detroit has its own issues right now w/ a big midseason trade apparently not working out. The Pistons have basically been on the fringes of the top eight (in the East) all season. When they went out and acquired Blake Griffin, everyone assumed that would put them over the hump. However, that has NOT been the case. While the ATS record isn't nearly as bad as Cleveland's, the Pistons have been bankrupting their backers of late w/ a horrendous 4-19 ATS mark their L23 games. They've opened March w/ B2B road losses, first at Orlando (OT) and them Miami (I played against them there). A third road game in four nights seemingly does them no favors on paper, but this is a matchup where I'm inclined to take the points regardless.

My own personal power rankings indicate that this line is about three points too high. The Cavs have no height whatsoever right now w/ Thompson and Kevin Love both out of the lineup. We'll see how well Larry Nance Jr pans out in a starting role. I'd been calling for Nance to play more, but this is a tough ask going against Andre Drummond, who has turned in 19 consecutive double-doubles, matching a Pistons' franchise record. Drummond had 21 pts and 22 rebounds in a 125-114 win over the Cavs back on Jan 30th. 8* Detroit 

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): Both of these teams played last night and won. But while the Pacers picked themselves up a nice road win, beating Washington 98-95 as 4-pt pups, Milwaukee was somewhat of an improbable winner at home against Phildelphia. The Bucks became just the second team in the last decade to overcome two seperate 15-point deficits and win the game, doing so 118-110 as a 1-pt dog. As you might expect, Giannis Antetokounmpo (he's back in the lineup) led the way w/ 34 points. The Bucks trailed in the 1st half and the 2nd half by as many as 19 pts, let the Sixers shoot 55.7% from the field (for the game!) and yet still found a way to win. Crazy!

These teams are no strangers to one another as they both reside in the Central Division and just met three days, in Milwaukee. Again, the Bucks found themselves down big at home as they trailed by as many as 17 in the contest. It was their fourth straight loss (SU and ATS) at the time, so had they not made the miraculous rally to beat Philly last night, we'd be looking at a five-game losing streak here. The team is also just 2-6 ATS its last eight games. Something I've noted before is that the Bucks have been outscored over the course of this season, so the fact they're five games above .500 is somewhat misleading. (Indiana is 4th in the East in point differential, trailing only Toronto, Boston and (barely) Philadelphia).

After a four-game road trip started out w/ losses to Dallas and Atlanta, beating both Milwaukee and Washington was huge for the Pacers. Yesterday's win jumped them past the Wizards for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. They were able to hold the Wiz below 100 pts and led by as many as 17 in the third quarter. So each of these teams' final scores from yday are a bit misleading. In Friday's win at Milwaukee, the Pacers not only led big, but also held the Bucks below 40% shooting for the game. At home, Indiana is obviously a much better team as they have gone 21-11 SU at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. They are also 17-8 SU their L25 games overall. Milwaukee was very fortunate yday in that Philadelphia turned the ball over 26 times, leading to 36 points. With both teams in the second game of a B2B, I'm taking the one at home and in far better form. 8* Indiana

10* Iona (7:00 ET): I've been closely following the MAAC Tourney where things were quickly thrown into chaos as the top three seeds were all eliminated in the quarterfinal round. That left Iona as the highest remaining seed and the Gaels struggled to advance yday, just getting by 9-seed St. Peters (who had just beaten top-seeded Rider) 65-62 as five-point chalk. The Gaels needed to rally from 10 points down at halftime after missing 10 consecutive field goal attempts. But they looked every bit the better team in the 2H, scoring 45 pts over the final 20 minutes. Their opponent in this Tournament Final is six-seed Fairfield, who comes in on a seven-game win streak. But the key is that the Stags were the favorite in all seven of those games. They aren't here and I have Iona getting the MAAC's auto bid to the NCAA Tournament. 

Fairfield ousted Quinnipiac yday, 74-64 as 3.5-point favorites. They were exceptionally proficient from the free throw line and turned it on defensively down the stretch, forcing the Bobcats to miss all but one of their final 11 FG attempts. But let's note that w/ the exception of the quarterfinal "upset" of 3rd seeded Niagara, the Stags have been feasting on the dregs of the MAAC during this run. Note I had the word upset in quotation marks in the last sentence and that's because the Stags were actually favored in that game vs. Niagara, so it really wasn't an upset despite being the lower seed. Fairfield's defense has been much improved during the win streak as the last five opponents have been held to roughly 11.3 points per game less than what they usually give up. 

Iona has the offense capable of reversing that trend, even though we haven't seen it so far in this tournament. The Gaels did not shoot well against either Manhattan or St. Peter's, but still come in averaging an impressive 79.7 points per game. I'm going out on a limb and calling for a breakout performance here. There certainly appears to be some line value here when you consider the Gaels were three-point favorites at Fairfield back on January 29th. They lost that game, 103-100 (in overtime), but also crushed the Stags at home earlier in the year by 19. Remember Fairfield had to play one more tourney game to get here. 10* Iona

8* Oakland (7:30 ET): All of a sudden, the "skies have opened" for Oakland in the Horizon League Tournament. The Golden Grizzlies were considered the preseason favorite to win this league, but were a major disappointment during the regular season, finishing only fourth in the standings. But the top seed in this tournament (Northern Kentucky) was eliminated in this tournament in shocking fashion last night (by Cleveland State!) and that makes the Golden Grizzlies path to the final a lot more manageable. Sure, second seeded Wright State is still alive on the other half of the bracket, but Oakland wouldn't have to worry about them until the Finals. The Grizzlies should be totally reinvigorated by yday's results and I expect them to roll today against IUPUI. Lay the points. 

IUPUI was probably like every other Horizon League team and happy to see Northern Kentucky go. But in the case of the Jaguars, the "selfishness" was quite tangible as they were crushed (at home) by NKU in the reg season finale, 75-56 last Sunday. That win had snapped a three-game win streak, all of the victories coming from the underdog role. One was against Oakland, at home, 74-67 as 5.5-pt home dogs. IUUPI covered both regular season matchups as they only lost by eight back on February 4th (were +12.5). Certainly, I agree there needs to be some sort of adjustment from the oddsmakers for this rubber match, but I think it's gone too far and there's significant value on Oakland this time. The Golden Grizzlies couldn't buy a field goal in that last meeting as they missed 23 of 31 three-point attempts and shot just 34.8% overall. Certainly, they'll be more prolific offensively tonight (they average 79.8 PPG). 

Oakland has not been good at the betting window this year, which is a reflection of them failing to match expectations. They were just 4-14 ATS vs. the rest of the Horizon League this season and 5-16 ATS for the season as a favorite. But fortunate for them is that IUPUI won just twice away from home all season. I think it speaks volumes that Oakland was favored in all but one Horizon League game and that was when they visited Northern Kentucky, a game that they won going away, 83-70 (+6.5). Trust me when I say that Oakland is your new favorite to win the Horizon League Tourney. 8* Oakland

10* Purdue (4:30 ET): There is no denying that Michigan is the "hot" team right now in College Basketball, but beating Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive days is something that probably no team is capable of, not even one that comes into today riding an eight-game win streak. Granted, the Wolverines played Purdue tough TWICE during the regular season, losing by only 1 and 4 pts respectively. But that combined w/ yday's results have conspired to drive this down further than it ought to be. Purdue is on my short list of possible NCAA Tournament winners and I actually like the fact that they come in having struggled at the betting window the last month or so, as it means they'll be undervalued. Lay the points.

You probably know what Michigan did yday. They upset top-seeded Michigan State, 75-64 as five-point underdogs, which really suprised me. Yes, the Wolverines were coming off an impressive blowout win over Nebraska (by 19) the day before, but what about the fact they needed OT to get by lowly Iowa on Thursday? This is now the Maize and Blue's fourth game in four days and that is likely to catch up w/ them. Meanwhile, Purdue got a bye to the quarterfinals by virtue of being the #2 seed and has played only two games to get here. They did not cover against either Rutgers or Penn State, but remember those were two teams playing for their "NCAA Tournament lives" (no chance of at-large bid). 

Purdue has lost only five games all season, three of them coming in February, all of which were close. All three losses were by four points or less, by a combined margin of eight and two were in the road. Note that when the Boilermakers hosted the Wolverines back in January, they were 11-pt favorites. That spread was too high in retrospect, but even after factoring out the homecourt edge, the oddsmakers have overadjusted here IMO. Purdue is quite underrated offensively as they are #2 in the nation in efficiency (per KenPom), which has led to the third best scoring differential. You don't get a price this cheap on them too often and while they barely beat the Wolverines in both regular season meetings, I see the third time being the charm as far as ATS is concerned. 10* Purdue

10* Atlanta (3:35 ET): You won't find the Hawks favored very often and an endorsement from me in such as a situation is even more rare. But you can say that "the stars align" for Sunday afternoon's matchup w/ the lowly Suns. Here, Atlanta faces a team in even worse shape than they are in and the gap between the two is actually a lot more significant than you might think. Phoenix has been one of the worst teams in the league all season long, but ever since late January, things have gotten especially dire as they've lost 16 of the last 18 games. This isn't to say Atlanta is anything special (they're not as they've lost five of six), but you just won't find my opportunities like this one where you can lay so few points against the Suns.

Tonight will mark the end of a four-game homestand for the Hawks. They did win one of the games, beating Indiana 107-102 on Wednesday (as 4-pt dogs). They followed that up w/ a loss, but it came at the hands of the Warriors and the Hawks played them tough, losing only by five as 12.5-pt dogs. It was too bad as they shot 60% in the 1Q and made 15 three-pointers for the game. Kent Bazemore scored a season-high 29 points. But matching that production isn't necessary here as needless to say, it's a huge drop in class in terms of opponent from Friday to today. You've probably guessed that the Hawks aren't favored often and you're right as this will be just the 10th time all season. But they've been competitive at home (14-19 SU/18-15 ATS) and a shockingly good 16-6 ATS vs. the Western Conference.

Atlanta did lose out in Phoenix back in January, but only by a single point as one-point dogs. Since then, the bottom has dropped out for the Suns and it's pretty clear that it's either them or Sacramento that is the league's worst team this season. The Suns did win earlier this week, on the road no less, but that was against a Memphis team that has been every bit as bad (worse?) over the last month. This spread indicates that these teams are "even," but that is simply not the case despite them having the same # of wins (19). Phoenix has the worst point differential in the league (-8.6 PPG), which is nearly twice as bad as the Hawks' point differential. Atlanta is better on both ends of the floor and should win easily here. 10* Atlanta

10* Nashville (3:05 ET): Nobody is as hot as the Preds right now as your Central Division leaders have the longest active win streak in the NHL right now at seven games and counting. One can only imagine how fired up "SMASHVILLE" is right now considering LY's playoff run which saw the team come in as a Wild Card, not potentially the #1 seed in the Western Conference. It has been complete domination during this seven-game win streak as they've outscored the opposition 33-15. While they did need OT to get by Vancouver Friday night, the other six wins all came in regulation. No way I'm not jumping on board today at this price, even though the opponent (Colorado) is on its own mini win-streak.

Nobody, myself included, expected the Avs to be any kind of playoff contender in 2018. After all, they were the worst team in the league a season ago, by a mile. But they've already easily surpassed LY's point total (48!) and enter Sunday one point behind the final Wild Card in the Western Conference (Anaheim). They've won three in a row, all here on home ice, including a shocking 7-1 rout of Minnesota on Friday. The Avs only had 26 shots on goal for the game, but quickly knocked out Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk after scoring five times on their first 17 shots. Goals will NOT come as easy today against Pekka Rinne, who is having himself a Vezina-caliber season, including a .941 save percentage his L4 starts. Rinne's presence is a big reason why the Preds have beaten the Avs eight straight times.

Now Colorado has won 13 of its last 14 at home, but Nashville happens to be one of the league's best road teams. Tonight, the Preds look to make it a perfect 4-0 road trip. While they did need extra time to get by the Canucks on Friday, note it was a 42-27 edge in shots for Nashville. That was the second game in a row w/ 40+ shots on goal. The Preds are not only sixth in the league in scoring, but also second in goals allowed. Only Tampa Bay has more points. Simply put, you don't want to be playing against this team right now, not w/ the fact they averaged 5.0 goals and 40.4 shots the last five games. Yes, Colorado is hot too and a good home team. But the bottom line is they are not in the "Predators' league." 10* Nashville

8* Manchester United (3:00 ET): OK, this should be a walk in the park for Man U against Crystal Palace. No one is catching Man City this year (16 points up on the field), but the Red Devils are desperately trying to hold down the #2 spot in the table as both Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool are hot on their heels. Thus a visit to face the injury plagued Eagles will be welcomed. Crystal Palace is getting both Martin Kelly and Jeffrey Schlupp back in time for Monday's match, but that will make little difference for a club in poor form (zero wins in L5 matches). While Man U is second from the top in the table, Crystal Palace is second from the bottom. A total mismatch that the visitor will win w/ ease. 

Even with the returns, Crystal Palace is still missing a ton of talent and when you consider they'd stand little chance of winning at full strength, you start to see the value on Man U. Over its last five matches, Man U has conceded only two goals and I don't see them getting scored on here considering they've allowed an EPL-low (tied w/ Man City) 20 on the season. On the other side of the ledger, Crystal Palace has found the back of the net only 25 times in 28 matches. Only West Brom, Huddersfield, Swansea and Burnley have scored at a less prodigous rate this season.

Crystal Palace was dealing w/ 12 injuries going into last weekend's match w/ Tottenham. It was a brutal 1-0 loss w/ the Eagles conceding the lone goal in the 89th minute. One would have to go back to January 2nd to find the last time this club didn't score 1 or 0 goals in a match. They were beaten 4-0 at Old Trafford back on September 30th. That drops them to 0-14-3 all-time vs. Man U in EPL play and they've been held goalless in 13 of those matches. The absence of Wilfried Zaha looms large as Palace has lost all eight matches when he has not been present this season, scoring only once and conceding 18 times. 8* Manchester United

10* Miami (7:35 ET): This was not a great spot to begin w/ for Detroit, but losing in overtime last night (to Orlando, no less!) probably makes it even worse. When the Pistons made the trade for Blake Griffin, it was thought that would put them "over the top" in their quest to make the playoffs. It hasn't really played out that way, however. They come into Saturday trailing the Heat by three full games for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference. They've also been an outright disaster at the betting window, going an abhorrent 4-18 ATS their last 22 games overall. Tonight marks their third game in four nights plus fifth in the last seven. I'm going against them and laying the points. 

Miami will not be lacking for motivation here after shockingly giving up 131 points to the Lakers here at home on Thursday. That was their 9th loss in the last 12 games overall. I figured this team was due for a bit of a "market correction" as their differential between actual and expected wins (based on YTD point differential) was among the widest gaps in the entire league. Thanks to the February swoon, that gap now isn't quite as large and their record is now more indicative of their overall level of play this season. While they have been outscored by opponents, I don't see them dropping B2B home games. This year has seen the Heat go a strong 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS when off a SU loss as a favorite. They are 25-11 ATS in that role the L3 seasons. Needless to say, it was a season-high in points allowed vs. the Lakers.

Given the recent schedule demands, including the OT game last night, I'm not sure how much the Pistons have left in the tank here. Let's not sugarcoat how bad it is to lose to Orlando at this juncture of the season. The Magic came into last night on a seven-game losing streak and trailed by seven in the final five minutes of regulation. That's a scenario where the Pistons HAVE to prevail. But they didn't and now they must deal w/ the consequences. They finished last night's game by missing 16 of their final 17 field goal attempts causing HC Stan Van Gundy to remove his entire starting five. Blake Griffin is 0 for 11 on three-point attempts the L4 games. Miami is a much better defensive team than what they showed Thursday and let's not discount what a bad road team Detroit is. The home team is 3-0 in the three head to head meetings between these teams this year. 10* Miami

8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): Going into the All-Star Break, it appeared as if the Cavs might have turned a corner. They shook up their roster w/ a series of bold trades and that led to very impressive road wins over Boston and Oklahoma City. However, since the Break, they've resumed their old inconsistencies, dropping three of five and the two wins came against bottom-feeders Brooklyn and Memphis. The Cavs' ATS record is beyond hideous at this point as they're now 19-41-1, easily a league-worst. Defense continues to be a concern though Thursday vs. Philadelphia, it was a poor offensive performance in the 2H that cost them. Tonight, they are at home again, this time vs. road-weary Denver. It's a must win.

This is not a good spot for the Nuggets, who will be playing a fourth game in six nights and the second of a back to back on the road. Last night, they beat Memphis 108-102, but failed to cover as nine-point favorites. Denver turned the ball over 24 times and scored only 17 pts in the 4Q, but still it was enough to beat a team that hasn't won a game since January 29th. Tonight will obviously be a far greater challenge and it seems as if the oddsmakers are finally starting to hold Cleveland "accountable" for its ATS woes. I would have imagined this spread would be a lot higher had the Cavs not lost to Philly on Thursday. Denver is not a good road team (10-19 SU) and getting this few points in a rough scheduling spot makes for a good fade, IMO.

Cleveland should get J.R. Smith back after he was suspended for the Sixers game for throwing soup (can't make it up!) at assistant coach Damon Jones. Smith is inconsistent, but the team definitely could have used him vs. Philly. LeBron James continues to be other-worldly (averaged a triple-double in February!), buy he clearly needs help. Personally, I'd like to see HC Ty Lue play Larry Nance, Jr more. The team has played much better w/ him on the floor since his arrival from LA. I have not taken the Cavs as a favorite many times this year, and for good reason as they're 10-36 ATS in that role! But as a short home fave against a tired visitor, they're worth the shot. Denver being a bad defensive team plays to the Cavs' strengths. 8* Cleveland

8* Ga Southern (5:00 ET): Louisiana (16-1 SU) ran away w/ the Sun Belt regular season crown this year, but there's still a tight battle going on for third between Georgia Southern and UT Arlington. The former leads by a half game coming into today's reg season finale and can actually finish in a second place tie thanks in large part to their opponent, Troy. The Trojans upset Georgia State on Thursday, 83-70 as 7.5-pt dogs. No matter what, Ga Southern will do no better than the third seed in the SBC Tournament as Georgia State has the tiebreaker. The Eagles have already beaten Troy on the road, 86-80 in a game the oddsmakers had as a pick 'em. Therefore, it would appear there's substantial value on them as a short home favorite today. Lay the points. 

Ga Southern is 9-3 SU at home this year, one of the losses coming to Louisiana and the other two by a combined three points. They average a healthy 83.7 PPG and have had no problems scoring recently as they are off B2B 81-pt efforts. They didn't even shoot particularly well Thursday vs. South Alabama, yet still basically led wire to wire. Not only are the Eagles trying to finish second in the SBC, but they're trying to avoid finishing fourth as UT-Arlington is just one-half game behind them after winning at the buzzer last night. The Sun Belt always has teams playing either twice at home or twice on the road in the weekly Thursday-Saturday schedule. This obviously tends to favor the home side in the second leg and sure enough Troy has yet to win a second leg this year (0-3 w/ two double digit losses). 

In the first meeting, neither side shot particularly well yet Ga Southern was able to emerge w/ a six-point road win even after trailing at halftime. They actually enjoyed an edge in FT attempts as the road team. It was actually the conference opener for both. Though over two months, I'm not sure a ton has changed for either side. Troy is trying to finish 5th in the standings, but that distinction means little as they're playing an opening round game regardless. Really, Ga Southern finishing third is the key here as they'd avoid a matchup w/ Louisiana until the finals. Troy did pull the upset Thursday, but that was w/ an incredible second half that won't be duplicated here. I just can't see them beating two of the top three teams in the SBC, both on the road, in a three-day span. 8* Ga Southern 

8* Portland State (4:00 ET): We head out to Big Sky country for this one where the fight for seeding in the conference tournament is still ongoing. Portland State stll can finish in sixth if they were to win here and Idaho State loses to reg season champ Montana (which is a good possibility). Granted, either way, the Vikings will be playing an opening round game, but getting a bottom two team as the first tournament opponent would certainly be ideal. These teams have not met this season, but Portland State still has double revenge on its mind from LY as they lost both meetings w/ North Dakota, including one in the conference tournament. Lay the points. 

On Senior Day, Portland State will be looking to bounce back from a home defeat to Northern Colorado. It was the Vikings' first regulation loss since falling to Montana back on Feb 8th. They had no answer for Andre Speight (scored 37 points), but were within one w/ just under two minutes remaining. While not a dominant home team per se, I don't see PSU dropping B2B games here to end the regular season. It's strange because the Vikings are 10-5 SU on the road this year, but only 7-5 SU at home. This despite the fact they are averaging 92.5 PPG at home! Now that number is somewhat skewed due to three wins over non-board teams. But still, this is a team that put up 106 pts in 25-pt road win over Cal earlier this year! They also beat Stanford. They lost by only on a neutral floor to Butler. The Vikings have the potential to be a dangerous sleeper next week in the Big Sky Tournament.

While Portland State is off a home loss, North Dakota is off a road win. They beat lousy Sacramento State 90-73 on Thursday as two-point underdogs. It speaks volumes that the Fighting Hawks would be underdogs to a Sacramento State team that is just 6-24 SU overall, even on the road. It was the Fighting Hawks' third win in the last four games, but the other two were both by five points or less, one of them in overtime. The Hawks have not been good on the road this year, going just 2-12 SU in "true" roadies and they're giving up an average of 90.1 PPG. That doesn't bode well when getting set to face an opponent that is #3 in the NATION in points per game. 8* Portland State

8* Dallas (2:05 ET): St. Louis picked up a rare and much-needed two points Wednesday when they beat Detroit by a score of 2-1. That win snapped a seven-game losing streak that had the Blues slipping down the Central Division standings at a fairly rapid pace. It was also on home ice. Unfortunately for the Blues, it's back to the road as a four-game trip starts tonight. (They'll be out in California for the other three). Needless to say, this is a very big game for both teams as Dallas is currently fourth in the Central w/ 77 pts. That's three ahead of sixth place St. Louis and two back of third place Minnesota. Remember that the top three in each division are guaranteed to make the postseason. I've been saying all year long that five will get in from the Central and the Stars are going to be one of them. I like the home favorite this afternoon. 

For Dallas, today marks the fourth game of a five-game homestand, which hasn't really gotten off to a good start. Sure, there's no shame in losing to league-leading Tampa Bay (which the Stars did Thursday) nor Winnipeg (who won here on 2.24). But still, Dallas has been a good home team this season (22-10-2) and you would think they'd do a better job at protecting their own rink. Now the loss to the Lightning did see the Stars finish w/ a decided edge in shots and pick up a point as the game went into overtime. Still though, given how tightly packed the Central Division is right now, they can't afford another loss. It was just over two weeks ago when the Stars beat the Blues 2-1 here at American Airlines Center. In fact, the home team has won all four prior head to head matchups this season. 

Dallas ranking 4th in the league in goals allowed is NOT something I would have expected coming into the season. St. Louis is also top five, but the Stars have a decided edge on the offensive end where they rank 15th in goals per game while the Blues are 25th. Over the L4 games, St. Louis has been shutout twice and given up eight goals in another loss. Dallas is outscoring its visitors by nearly a full goal per game this season. Having Ben Bishop on the roster is a big reason why Dallas has been so much better between the pipes this season. Meanwhile, it sounds as if the Blues will turn to backup goalie Carter Hutton tonight. Hutton has a save percentage of .889 his L4 starts. 8* Dallas

10* Florida State (2:00 ET): The Seminoles are looking to bounce back from crushing double-digit defeats at the hands of NC State and Clemson over the last week. Those losses really put a damper on the 'Noles' NCAA Tournament hopes. If you believe those in the "Bracketology game," then FSU is still likely to make the field of 68, but a third straight loss could change that and they also have to avoid an early exit in the ACC Tournament. Today marks not on the regular season finale, but it's Senior Day in Talahassee and a revenge game to boot. Boston College upset the 'Noles, 81-75 (+3.5) up in Chesnut Hill in late January. So there's a number of things that have conspired to drive the line down further than it ought to be. Lay the points. 

FSU is actually 0-6 ATS its last six games w/ four of those also being straight up defeats (three by double digits). But only one of the losses came here at home and that was by four to a very good Virginia team. Overall, the Seminoles are 12-2 SU in Talahassee and averaging an impressive 87.6 points per game. They are typically a good rebounding squad, but were outworked on the boards by Clemson Wednesday. Getting back to the revenge angle, the 'Noles are 4-1 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a road loss. Boston College has only three victories away from home this season and just two of them came in "true" road games.

B.C. is coming off an impressive 15-pt victory over Syracuse on Wednesday, but that was at home. That snapped an overall three-game losing streak. But not all the news was good as freshman forward Steffon Mitchell left w/ a hamstring injury and was on crutches after the game. I do not expect the Eagles to go 14 of 27 from behind the arc again like they did vs. Syracuse. It is Florida State that ranks in the top 25 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). B.C. has just one ACC road win this year and it came against last place Pitt. In the first meeting between these two, the Seminoles shot just 33% from the field, including a dreadful 5 of 26 from three-point range. Obviously, they'll be much improved on Saturday afternoon. 10* Florida State 

10* Utah (10:35 ET): Yes, this spread is slightly inflated due to the fact the T'wolves are going to be w/out Jimmy Butler. But you could have said the same thing last night for their game in Portland and not only did they lose there, 108-99, they also failed to cover as 5.5-pt dogs. Tonight's spot, playing w/o rest, is obviously much worse. Especially when you factor in that the Jazz have been off the last three days. Since the All-Star Break, Utah has dropped two of three here at home, losing to Portland and Houston. Remember - they went into the Break on an 11-game win streak! I'm laying the points here as I anticipate a blowout.

Playing w/o Butler, things started well enough for Minnesota last night in Portland. They held the Blazers to 25 percent shooting in the 1st quarter and 0 for 13 from three-point range in the first half. Damian Lillard missed his first seven shots and another Blazers' starter, Maurice Harkless, left the game due to injury (did not return) Yet, the T'wolves still found a way to lose. They led going into the fourth quarter and Portland shot less than 40% for the game. But things were decided in the fourth when the Blazers outscored them 33-21. Clearly, Minny is going to miss Butler, their leading scorer, who averages 22.2 PPG. They did win the first two games w/o him, but those came against Chicago and Sacramento, two of the worst teams in the league.

Utah is 19-11 SU at home this year, holding visitors to 97.9 PPG. They're well rested and due for offensive improvement after failing to score even 100 pts in any of the last three games. The key here is Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency (24th) and Butler was their best individual defender as well. As a road dog, the T'wolves are only 4-12 SU this season, losing by an average of 7.3 PPG. Keep in mind that virtually all of those games, save for last night, are w/ Butler in the lineup. They are also 0-2 SU in the second of back to back road games (no rest in between), losing by an average of over nine points per game. 10* Utah

8* Under Devils/Hurricanes (7:35 ET): Carolina certainly got one over one me last night as they went into Philadelphia and not only snapped their own six-game losing streak, but also snapped the Flyers' six game win streak. It was an emotional 4-1 victory w/ captain Jordan Staal making a surprise return to the ice following the death of his infant daughter. The 'Canes quickly jumped out to a 3-0 advantage and never looked back, limiting Philly to just 22 shots on goal. Tonight, they get to return to Raleigh and face one of the teams they are attempting to chase down in the Metro, that being New Jersey. The Devils have been one of the biggest surprises in the legaue this year, but did lose last night, 3-2 at Florida. 

So we've got both teams playing the second game of a back to back. It's also the third game in four nights for both sides. For New Jersey, all three will have been on the road. Playing on back to back days, the Devils are 6-6 SU this year and have an O/U record of 7-5. For Carolina, they are just 5-8 SU playing w/o rest and 9-3-1 Under. These teams met twice in February w/ the Devils winning both times, 5-2 at home and 3-2 here in Raleigh. Carolina, as we often see, had more shots on goal only to come out on the losing end (both times). Last night stopped a streak of six consecutive games scoring three or fewer goals for the 'Canes. 

I think we can expect a low-scoring game tonight. The Under is 5-0-1 in New Jersey's last six games. Keith Kinkaid is the likely starter in goal for them as Corey Schneider played last night. Kinkaid made 40 saves in the last meeting w/ Carolina and has a .946 save percentage his L4 starts. Goaltending has been a concern all year for the 'Canes, but New Jersey is only 15th in goals per game while Carolina themselves ranks 26th. We don't see an O/U line of 6.0 very often w/ either of these teams. For Carolina, this will be just the fifth time and for New Jersey only the 11th. 8* Under Devils/Hurricanes

10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): The Islanders are by no means out of playoff contention as we move into March, however, they've certainly done themselves no favors of late. It's a four-game losing streak coming into tonight where they'll face the team that just beat them on Wednesday, Montreal. Only this time, the matchup will be on home ice. In Montreal, the Canadiens prevailed 3-1, which was their fifth straight game w/ at least a point. However, this is still a team "going nowhere" and w/ goaltending issues to boot, I just can't see the Habs beating the Isles twice in a row. While they have recorded a point in five straight games, the Habs have still come out on the short end in three of those.

If the Isles ultimately fail to make the postseason, it won't be any secret as to what went wrong. They currently rank dead last in the league in goals allowed, giving up an average of 3.6 per game. However, it's the offense that has burned them the L2 games, scoring just one goal each time out. This is a team that ranks 7th in the league in gpg, so we're certainly accustomed to seeing more scoring out of them. They've allowed a total of only five goals the last two games. I fully expect the offense to get back on track here as the Habs have a pretty shaky goaltending situation going on right now.

That goaltending situation involves Carey Price being out due to a concussion. Antti Niemi is the de facto #1 between the pipes right now and while he's gone 2-0-1 his L3 starts (made 27 saves Wednesday), I'm not sure I'd trust him considering he has a save percentage below .900 this season. On the road, his save percentage dips down to a really ugly .862. The Habs aren't a good road team anyway as their record away from home this year is just 8-19-2. Therefore, look for this trip (6 games in 12 days) to officially "sink their season.' 10* NY Islanders