10* Under Miami/Cincinnati (7:30 ET):  With all the scoring we've seen this year in College Football, high totals are becoming more and more commonplace. At some point this week, you may have read that the Over is 17-4 this season in games where the closing total was 70 pts or higher!  One such game took place last Thursday on ESPN as Cincinnati traveled to Memphis and the end result was a wild shootout that saw the Bearcats come out on the losing end, 53-46 (but I was still able to cash them plus the points!). Predictably then, we have a high total this week (that's already been bet up several points) as Cincy hosts a rested Miami team. With the expectation of a shootout, I'm seeing some value on the Under in this one as I seriously doubt the Bearcats will be able to replicate last week's incredible offensive performance.

Even after losing their starting QB (Gunner Kiel) early, Cincinnati was able to roll up a ridiculous 38 first downs and 752 total yards of offense! Backup Hayden Moore came in and not only threw for a Cincinnati record, but an AAC record 557 yards passing, and the team set several school records! Needless to say, they won't be duplicating that kind of production here, even though the Miami secondary is down two safeties for the first half (targeting penalties).  One key here is that Cincy has already turned the ball over 10 times (most in FBS) while the Miami defense has nine takeaways (2nd most), led by CB Artie Burns, who has gone on record saying he's picked up on a few of Moore's tendencies. The bottom line is that turnovers are drive killers and lead to an obvious reduction in scoring.  That is how this Hurricanes' defense can keep the Bearcats out of the end zone. 

"The U" comes in at 3-0 and off its bye week. They survived a nail biter their last time out, a 36-33 victory over Nebraska that required overtime after the 'Canes blew a huge fourth quarter lead. The defense, for 3.5 quarters, held Nebraska to only 10 points. The offense did score 40+ in its first two games, but that was against lackluster competition. This will be their highest total to date. Three times on the road last season, they were held to 17 points or less. To me, this is all about inflated expectations on how much scoring will take place. I look for a lower-scoring game than anticipated. 10* Under Miami/Cincinnati

10* Over Marlins/Rays (7:10 ET): These teams combined for 10 runs yday (Rays won 6-4), but w/ a pitching matchup of Jose Fernandez vs. Jake Odorizzi, it's a low total tonight. Still though, I'm thinking Over as Fernandez is not the same pitcher on the road, plus given the amount of scoring we saw last night, the adjustment on the total is too much. Miami has gone Over in four of its last five games and in the last series (vs. Atlanta) averaged nine runs per game. Tampa Bay has scored at least four runs in 9 of its last 10 games. 

Fernandez is unbeaten in 10 starts this year (6-0), but technically his team start record is 7-3 w/ all those losses taking place out on the road (1-3 TSR).  The Over is a perfect 4-0 in those road starts and it really helps that no Fernandez start has seen a total of higher than 7.0 runs this season. As you know, 7.0 is a key number in betting baseball totals.  So the half run we have to play w/ here is potentially huge, but then again that may not even matter given the way Fernandez looked his last time out. Against the Braves last Friday, he gave up six runs in just five innings, his worst outing of the season.  Overall, the Over is 7-3 in Fernandez's 10 starts including 4-1 the previous five.  In his only previous start here at Tropicana Field, he gave up seven runs in three innings back in 2013.

Odorizzi is just 8-9 despite a fairly solid 3.49 ERA and 1.164 WHIP this season, but recently he has regressed and now has a 5.29 ERA his last six outings. He's allowed four runs in B2B outings and here at home has been where he's surprisingly struggled the most w/ a 6.85 ERA his L4 starts here. This is a lower total than what we're used to seeing for an Odorizzi start and take note that each of his last seven outings have seen a total of at least seven runs scored. Both offenses have averaged over 5.0 runs per game the last week and during that time Miami is hitting a collective .310.  For the season, the Over is 39-32-6 here at Tropicana Field and the Rays are 11-6-2 Over in Interleague Play themselves.  10* Over Marlins/Rays

9* San Diego (6:40 ET):  This is the Padres final home game of the year. In what has been a terribly disappointing season at Petco Park, they certainly don't want to go out getting swept by the lowly Brewers. Last night saw Milwaukee deliver a shutout, 5-0, making it three straight wins for them. But as I went over in my analysis yday, win streaks of three games or more have been a real rarity for the Brew Crew as this is just the eighth time its happened all season. Not only is Milwaukee only 34-46 on the road this year, they are 1-5 coming off a shutout win. The team has only been in position to sweep three road series this season and while they pulled it off twice (both times before the All-Star Break), they failed to do so earlier this month in Cincinnati.  I look for San Diego to win its final home game of 2015.

To get the win, the Padres will certainly need Ian Kennedy to pitch better than he has of late. Over his L3 starts, he has an 8.04 ERA and 1.914 WHIP and he's actually lost four in a row.  But prior to that stretch, there were five consecutive outings where he allowed 2 ER or less. Home runs have been an issue for Kennedy throughout the year, but the good news here is that Milwaukee has homered just one time or less in eight of their last 10 games. Also, the Brew Crew scored all of their runs in just one inning last night.  I haven't been too impressed by their offense and this season has seen them go just 49-70 vs. right-handed starters.

Of course, San Diego will also need to score some runs here to avoid the sweep.  Fortunately, they too are facing a struggling pitcher. Rookie Taylor Jungmann started off just fine, but appears to have hit a wall as his ERA/WHIP in his L3 starts is 8.44/1.562 (similar numbers to Kennedy).  He's allowed six runs in B2B starts, lasting only five innings both times. He did outpitch Kennedy in an earlier meeting this season (back in August), but that was at home. On the road, Jungmann has a 4.83 ERA.  San Diego is 10-8 after being shut out in their previous game this season and is a surprising 15-8 as a ML favorite of -125 to -150 (40-26 L3 seasons).  9* San Diego

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): Milwaukee took last night's series opener here at Petco Park, but given their overall resume, expecting B2B road wins would be expecting too much.  The Brew Crew are a 90-loss team and have been equally as bad on the road as they've been at home.  This would be the first time in a long time that they are coming off B2B wins (did win in St. Louis on Sunday); in fact they hadn't accomplished the feat since opening September w/ five straight wins. A winning streak of three or more games has happened only seven times all season for them, so the odds are definitely against them on Wednesday. Though it's been a very disappointing season in San Diego, the Padres would like to at least take these final two home games.

San Diego was able to erase an early 2-0 deficit last night and take a 3-2 lead going into the sixth inning. Unfortunately, that was when Jean Segura hit a two-run homer for the Brewers that held up as the game winner. The Padres did finish the game w/ more hits (9-7) and that was their most in a game since 9.23 when they beat San Francisco.  You have to figure this offense will get something going against Zach Davies, who pitched well his last time out, but still has a 5.17 ERA and 1.468 WHIP his L3 starts. It's an all-rookie rotation right now for the Brew Crew, so you can expect plenty of inconsistency in the final week. 

At the plate, Milwaukee hitters have uncharacteristically drawn nine walks the L2 games, a big reason both resulted in wins.  For the year, this teams ranks near the bottom of MLB in walk rate.  They are also 48-70 vs. RH starters, so Andrew Cashner should have a nice outing for the Padres here. Cashner deserves far better than his 12-18 team start record and is coming off B2B quality outings against division rivals San Francisco and Arizona. Last time out, he overcame five walks by allowing only two hits to the Giants in a 5-4 victory.  He last faced Milwaukee back in August, on the road, and despite allowing only two runs, the team still found a way to lose.  Three of his last four starts have been quality, however, and I see him leading his team to a victory tonight.  8* San Diego

8* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Marlins +1.5. Neither Florida team has much, if anything, to play for at this point. Tuesday, it was Tampa Bay taking the series opener by a score of 4-2, thanks to a tie-breaking 2-run HR by Asdrubal Cabrera in the bottom of the eighth.  Miami actually had more hits in the game (9 to 6) though and despite their poor overall record, they're a good value with the +1.5 tonight. The Rays have a losing record at home this year (38-41) as they are one of only five American League teams that can claim that. They are also a disastrous 2-13 in extra inning games, a record that's pretty much "sunk their season."  The Fish do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Pitching tonight for the Marlins will be Jarred Cosart. That's a good thing when you consider his previous success against the Rays.  In four career starts, Cosart is 3-1 w/ a 1.24 ERA vs. TB. That lone loss did come earlier this year (all the way back in April), but can hardly be blamed on the pitcher as he delivered six strong innings of four-hit ball, allowing only one run. Unfortunately for he and Miami, Chris Archer was going for the Rays and he pitched a shutout. Cosart basically missed the entire summer due to injury, but since returning has been effective despite some inefficiency. His ERA in four September starts is 1.37 as he's allowed 2 ER or less every time out. His last start was cut short due to taking a line drive to the forearm, but he had thrown four scoreless innings up until that point.

Similar to Cosart, Tampa Bay's Drew Smyly has suffered through an injury-plagued campaign. Unlike Cosart, however, Smyly hasn't been very consistent in September. In fact, since rejoining the rotation in mid-August, he's alternated between good and bad over an eight-start stretch. He's off one of the "good" outings, so if the pattern holds true, then you can expect him to allow at least 4 ER here.  Over its last seven games, Miami is averaging 5.1 runs per game while batting a collective .310.  With the Rays being so offensively challenged, the +1.5 is huge in this matchup. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

8* Washington (7:10 ET):  It's no secret that Atlanta is a very bad baseball team. But the reality is that they're pretty lucky to even be 63-94 as their MLB worst (yes, even worse than the Phillies) run differential of -198 says they should already have 100 losses "to their credit."  Of course, they did beat Washington last night as the Nats probably can't wait to wrap up their own miserable season. But there is no denying who the better team is tonight at Turner Field and it's the Nationals, who remain 13-4 head to head with their NL East rivals this season. Despite all their struggles, Washington is 18-12 as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 price range.  I'll call for them to bounce back Wednesday evening.

Though it's "no consolation," many of the numbers suggest that the Nats rank right up there w/ the five playoff teams in the National League. They have the same run differential as the Cubs, for instance, and have given up the sixth fewest runs (you can probably guess the five above them).  Though they dropped one last night, one-run games haven't been an issue (22-21) and they're also 9-2 in extra inning affairs. They simply appear to be a snake-bit club that's being poorly managed. Last night saw them finish w/ an edge in hits as starter Tanner Roark dominated eight of the nine spots in the Braves' lineup. The exception was AJ Pierzynski, who hit two solo home runs and that was the difference in the game. Other than that, Atlanta had only three hits for the game.

So despite a couple of recent rough outings (against Philadelphia!), I expect tonight's starter Jordan Zimmerman to get the job done for the Nationals.  The last time he faced Atlanta, the end result was a 15-1 win for Washington as Zimmerman allowed only one run and two hits in 6 IP.  In fact, Zimmerman has a 4-0 TSR vs. the Braves in 2015, having allowed 3 ER or less in every start.  Twice he didn't allow even a single run while going at least 7 2/3 innings.  Overall, the team is 19-13 w/ Zimmerman on the mound this year.  Meanwhile, Braves' starter Williams Perez has a 1.648 WHIP here at home (nine starts). The team should feel very fortunate to have won 20 straight one-run games at home. Like I said at the outset, they are probably the worst team in all of baseball. 8* Washington

8* Houston (10:05 ET):  The Astros picked up a critical win here in Seattle Monday night, beating the Mariners 3-2 to pull within two games of first place Texas (lost yday) in the American League West. Unfortunately for Houston, both Minnesota and the Angels also won last night, meaning both are still within 1.5 games of the 'Stros for the Wild Card. So the club cannot afford any kind of slip up this week in Safeco Field, especially since they get the huge break of not having to face any of Seattle's talent trio of righties - Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma & Taijuan Walker (who has been shut down for the season). The M's, who have lost six in a row overall, are a woeful 27-51 this season when no member of that aforementioned trio is on the hill.

Houston will turn to Michael Fiers, who has a 0.966 WHIP his L3 starts despite three no-decisions. Since throwing a no-hitter last month, Fiers has generally been pretty outstanding w/ four more quality starts in his last five outings. Since coming from Milwaukee, he has a 3.18 ERA in nine games. He's never faced Seattle previously, but the lineup he'll see here had only four hits Monda and is in the bottom third in runs scored, batting average and OBP in all of baseball. The Mariners have averaged less than three runs per game during the current losing streak while batting only .206. With none of their top of the rotation pitchers going in this series, Seattle instead turns to spot starter Vidal Nuno on Tuesday and he's working on short rest (three days) after B2B outings where he allowed five runs in just 7 2/3 innings. Nuno was also tagged for five runs last month by Houston.

Since the start of last season, Nuno is a horrific 3-16 in 36 starts and has lost 12 of his previous 13 decisions.  He doesn't figure to last long here against an Astros lineup which has the second most home runs in all of baseball after hitting 20 in the L9 games.  Meanwhile, as specified above, Seattle should struggle w/ Fiers, who has limited batters to a .177 BA as a starter for Houston. The Astros struggle on the road, but Seattle has one of the worst home records in baseball. In terms of run differential, Houston (+94) is clearly the best team in the division and has shown that w/ an 11-6 head to head record vs. the Mariners.  8* Houston

8* NY Mets (7:05 ET):  The NL East champion Mets are not w/o motivation down the home stretch as they can lock down home field advantage for the LDS, where they will almost certainly be matched up against the Dodgers.  Having the home field edge would be potentially huge in that series considering the Dodgers' respective records at home (52-26) and on the road (35-43). After sweeping the Reds, in Cincinnati, over the weekend, the Mets' path to earning home field continues to look pretty easy as they now draw a Phillies club that is not only the worst in all of baseball, but one that they have gone 14-2 against this season w/ wins in nine of the last 10 matchups.  Look for them to roll in the series opener.

For much of the season, New York struggled on the road, but that ill has since been cured.  The team now stands at 41-37 away from Citi Field and while they may not sound all that impressive, note that's one of only nine winning road records in all of baseball (6-1 here in Philly) and they've won 11 straight, not to mention 24 of their last 29!  A big reason for that has been the coinciding offensive turnaround; the Mets have scored at least three runs in 31 straight away games (1st NL team in modern era to do so). With the addition of Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets lineup has risen to middle of the pack in runs scored, slugging and OBP. Again, that may not sound all that impressive, but they were near the bottom in all three categories at the midway point of the season.

Looking at tonight's pitching matchup, we have Bartolo Colon going for the Mets and he has really had the Phillies' number this season. He has a 4-0 TSR against them in 2015, including B2B shutouts last month where he allowed only nine hits in 15 innings. Colon has a 1.65 ERA his L6 starts overall and here at Citzens Bank Park he is 7-1 w/ a 2.78 ERA the L2 years.  Let us also not forget just how truly horrible these Phillies are; they have a -190 run differential that's 2nd worst in all of baseball. Starting David Buchanan here doesn't give them much of a shot as he has a 7.96 ERA and 1.942 WHIP in 13 starts this season (2-11 TSR). The Mets are a perfect 4-0 as road favorites of -175 or higher on the money line this season.  8* NY Mets

8* Indiana (7:05 ET):  The home team has taken the first two games of this series, but for tonight's winner take all Game 3, I'm siding with the visiting Fever, who I believe to be the better overall team. Yes, they failed to take advantage of a great spot situationally in Game 1 last week as they lost to the Liberty, who were playing w/o rest after winning a Game 3 (here at home) the previous night.  But Indiana bounced back to take Game 2, 70-64 as 3.5-pt home favorites, improving their YTD record vs. New York to 5-2 straight up. While they failed to cover in two of the wins, they were favored both of those times. I say to take the points here.

Some will say that it was adrenaline that carried the top-seeded Liberty to an 84-67 victory in Game 1.  I would point towards the ridiculous 56.1 percent shooting from that game, which is even more ridiculous when you consider New York was over 57% from behind the three-point line!  Both percentages were easily season bests for the Liberty, who then predictably dropped down to 38.1 percent overall for Game 2.  It was actually the more rested Fever faltering late in that Game 1 loss (they scored just 25 pts in the 2H), but it was a much different story Sunday at home for Game 2 as they outscored the Liberty 41-20 in the second half, erasing what was a 15-point halftime deficit.  It was the first time all season that New York failed to cover as an underdog!

Now just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall, the Liberty are 12-1-1 ATS when taking points this season, but just a "coinflip proposition" in the chalk role (13-12 ATS) including 9-9 ATS at home.  Remember that Indiana is the more battle tested team here; I had them in a Game 3 win (on the road) against Chicago in the first round. This group has been to the WNBA Finals before, as recently as 2012, while New York is neophytes in this position.  Again, the Fever also have the upper hand head to head this season and while the home team has lost only once, the pointspread has still come into play multiple times.  I believe the better team is getting points in this one.  8* Indiana

10* Kansas City (8:30 ET):  I think that, for many, the main concern here w/ the Chiefs is how they will respond from last Thursday's heartbreaking loss to Denver. Blowing a 14-0 lead at home to Peyton Manning isn't unprecedented by any means, but it was the manner in which it happened that had KC fans/backers (me being among the latter) scratching their heads. By now, you've all seen it. After allowing Manning to drive down the field and tie the game 24-24, a Jamaal Charles fumble (in the final seconds!) was scooped up and returned for a TD. As bad a loss as it was, going from Thursday to Monday is almost like a "mini-bye" and should give the Chiefs adequate time to recover. I'd actually be more concerned w/ a Green Bay hangover here as the Packers are coming off a high-profile, revenge spot against the Seahawks.  Take the points.  

The record shows that teams tend to struggle the week after playing Seattle. Look at St. Louis, who beat them in Week 1, only to come back and lose at Washington the following week.  Going back to last year, that now makes it ELEVEN straight losses for teams the week after playing the Seahawks! The theory behind this is similar to the Steelers teams of old as Seattle is a physical team that definitely "takes something out of an opponent." As I stated earlier, throw in the fact that for the Packers, last week was a huge revenge game (for LY's NFC Championship) and tonight's spot is even more troubling. The bodies are also starting to pile up for Green Bay. You already know that WR Jordy Nelson is out for the year. Top offensive lineman Brian Bulaga is out 4-6 weeks. Two key players in the secondary (Morgan Burnett & Sam Shields) may not play tonight.  Neither RB Eddie Lacy nor WR Davante Adams is 100 percent.

That Bulaga injury is especially key here when considering the Chiefs' outstanding pass rush.  Through two games, they have eight sacks. Kansas City held Denver to only 299 total yards last week and only two touchdowns before the final minute.  Despite five turnovers by the offense, two of them deep in Broncos' territory, they still had a very reasonable shot at taking the game.  Including a Week 1 win at Houston, the Chiefs are now 12-6 ATS their last 18 road games.  10* Kansas City

8* Under Chiefs/Packers (8:30 ET): Green Bay isn't shy about scoring at home.  They scored at least 30 points at Lambeau Field in seven of eight regular season games last year, four times topping 40 pts. For the year, they averaged a whopping 39.75 points per game at home.  Now that we've got that out of the way, it's time to make the case for the Under. This sure seems like a classic letdown spot for the Packers as they are coming off a high-profile, revenge spot last Sunday night over the Seahawks.  They scored "only" 27 points in that win. While clearly a case could be made that "it's the Seahawks," note they were w/o safety Kam Chancellor and the Rams scored more against them the previous week. Kansas City has a strong enough defense to keep this game close - and low-scoring. Take the Under.

Both of the Chiefs' games so far have gone Over, but last week was clearly a "bad beat" for Under bettors. With under a minute remaining and a 24-17 lead on Denver (at home), the Under was still in play. But then they gave up a game-tying touchdown and then lost the game on a horrific Jamaal Charles fumble. There were actually two defensive scores in that game, one by the Chiefs, something that certainly cannot be counted on every game. Save for that last drive, the KC defense did its job last week as they held the Broncos to only 299 total yards. Opponents are struggling to run the ball thus far against the Chiefs (just 159 yds total), whose pass rush is also making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks.

Kansas City was kind to Under bettors in 2014, going 11-5.  The pass rush I just spoke of (eight sacks already) should have another big game tonight going against a Green Bay offensive line that's without its best player, Brian Bulaga. For the Packers, QB Aaron Rodgers is currently surrounded by a lot of skill position players that aren't 100 percent.  The one real negative w/ this Chiefs team is that on offense they lack a certain explosive capability in the passing game. QB Alex Smith is simply subpar at throwing the ball downfield. Unless Charles is ripping off long runs, it will take long, sustained drives for the team to put points on the board. 8* Under Chiefs/Packers

10* Kansas City (8:05 ET): This is a bad spot for the Cubs, that being the old "off the Sunday night game" scenario. While they get to stay home after beating the Pirates 4-0 last night (behind another gem from Jake Arrieta), the opponent is the Royals, who treated me kindly Sunday (shut out win themselves) and are still chasing down homefield advantage in the American League.  I think this is a really solid value on the visiting team as despite losing the DH spot from their lineup (NL park), they won't be facing one of the Cubs' best pitchers.  Chicago also has a losing record in Interleague Play and had lost three in a row before Sunday. I would give the pitching edge to the Royals tonight, in fact.

I didn't even need the benefit of the run line yday as the Royals rolled to a 3-0 win over the Indians. Like the Cubs, they avoided what would have been a sweep at home w/ Sunday's victory. This is one of the few teams in baseball to sport a winning record on the road (always a good sign) and they are 13-6 vs. the National League this season (split a pair of games w/ the Cubs back in May). Tonight's starter Yordano Ventura was actually on the hill for a 2-1 loss to the Northsiders, but pitched well, giving up just one run and four hits.  The Cubs lineup has been scuffling a bit in recent days (.225 BA L7 games) w/ just 11 runs scored in the last five games, but has been fortunate that the pitching has been good. That won't be the case here.

The Royals have actually won eight of Ventura's last nine starts and he's allowed 4 ER or less in all of them. Meanwhile, the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks has a 5.74 ERA his L3 starts and hasn't exactly been going deep into games ever since the All-Star Break.  While the Royals are 5-2 off a shutout win this season, the Cubs are just 8-10.  This is a make-up game by the way and while that usually hurts the road team in the scenario, here it will be the Cubs rueing how they now have to play the day after a big Sunday night win.  10* Kansas City

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET):  Yes, I'm well aware of the pitching change for Boston and this play still stands.  Rather than Rick Porcello, it will be Eduardo Rodriguez going for the Red Sox and while that can be categorized as an "upgrade," it won't be nearly enough to overcome a Yankees team looking to lock down a Wild Card spot. While Rodriguez has pitched well in each of his three starts against the Pinstripes this year, he hasn't fared nearly as well out on the road going all the way back to the All-Star Break. He's 0-4 w/ an 8.54 ERA away from Fenway Park in the second half, twice allowing 7+ ER.  As I said earlier, the Yankees are trying to lock down a playoff spot and currently have a magic number of three.  They are a much better team that their rival right now.

Starting for the Yanks in tonight's series opener will be Ivan Nova. Recent results haven't been good for the right-hander (1-5 TSR last six starts), but to be fair he's coming off B2B starts against Toronto. In the second of the pair, Nova allowed just one run on four hits in 5 2/3 innings, which is encouraging.  Overall, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in five of his lat seven outings.  While he's lost both starts against Boston this year, ironically both coming against Rodriguez, he really didn't pitch poorly either time. While he has an ugly 3-7 team start record as an underdog this year, Nova has a 3-2 TSR when favored on the money line.

As for the respective teams, the Yankees have dominated the season series, going 10-5 head to head w/ the Red Sox.  They also have a winning record both at home (44-33) and against left-handed starters following a successful weekend series against the White Sox where they took three of four. The offense finally got back on track Sunday w/ six runs scored.  Boston is off a surprising sweep of Baltimore (at home) where they didn't allow a single run in the series, but they previously were just 3-5 when coming off a shutout victory and are also 3-9 this year when on a three-game win streak.  8* NY Yankees

10* Miami (4:25 ET):  It's been awhile since these two long-time AFC East rivals played a meaningful game. Though it's still only Week 3, this one has a pretty important, make or break type feel to it. Both the Dolphins and Bills lost last week and it both instances, the setbacks had to be considered disappointing.  Miami, who wasn't all that impressive in a Week 1 win at Washington, lost to lowly Jacksonville.  Buffalo, off a very impressive Wk 1 victory at home over the Colts, seemed to treat last week's matchup w/ New England as almost a "Super Bowl type affair."  Unfortunately for them, like those Bills teams of old who played in actual Super Bowls, the end result was a loss. Before the year, I felt Miami was a better team than Buffalo, so I feel they are a bargain here laying the short number.

Though the final score said 40-32 last week for the Bills against the Patriots, that's a bit misleading in the sense that they weren't really that competitive. After scoring a touchdown on its opening drive, Buffalo would be dominated for the balance of the first three quarters, getting outscored 37-6.   A late flurry got Bills fans hopes back up, but it was not to be. I think that will be a difficult loss to overcome, especially now that they're playing on the road. Remember that this will be QB Tyrod Taylor's first road start.  The defense didn't look nearly as good last week either, giving up an insane 466 yards passing to Tom Brady.  Penalties also continue to be an issue as through two games the Bills have committed 25 of them for 253 yards.

Honestly, splitting a pair of road games isn't the end of the world for the Dolphins. QB Ryan Tannehill could be better, but hasn't thrown an interception in his last 150 pass attempts and is more than capable of having a big game here. Remember that the Bills were +3 in turnovers in their one win this year and that was against a Colts team that may not be as good as we all thought.   A 22-9 win over the Bills last year at home actually snapped a three-game series losing streak for Miami.  But, including that, the home team has covered six of the last seven matchups and going "hand in hand" w/ that is the fact the home team is on a 5-1 ATS run in the rivalry.  I also expect this Dolphins' defense, led by Ndamukong Suh, to start playing better.  Buffalo's offensive line, I thought, was a huge question mark coming into the season, so I'm surprised they've been able to run the ball so effectively in the first two games.  The Dolphins "hold serve" at home.  10* Miami

8* San Diego (4:10 ET):  There doesn't seem to be much on the line in this battle of NL West also-rans Sunday, but coming off a shutout victory yday, the Padres look like a good bet today w/ James Shields on the bump. After a bit of a rough summer, Shield's last three starts could not have possibly gone any better as San Diego has outscored foes 31-11 and that includes a 10-3 win over the D'backs, on the road.  The Padres took two of three in Arizona earlier this month, so there's no reason why they can't do the same here at Petco Park. Zack Godley is the opposition here for Shields and given his road marks, I wouldn't like the D'backs chances.

Arizona was four-hit yesterday and their first one didn't come until the sixth inning. That was actually their first hit off Padres pitching since the 2nd inning Friday, so they'd gone more than 12 frames w/o a hit.  So, I wouldn't put a ton of stock into a 6-3 win in the series opener. Godley, who has started all of five games in 2015, did look good his last time out. But that was at home. In three road starts, he has a 5.17 ERA and 1.595 WHIP.  Since his last start (on 9.9), he has faced the Padres once, in relief, and allowed a run in 1 1/3 IP.  Arizona is 3-4 after being shut out this season and is only 17-25 in day games.  Their struggling offense has scored just 10 runs in the L4 games.

As for Shields, he's obviously gotten a ton of run support lately, but that hasn't stopped him from holding opposing hitters to a .196 batting average those L3 starts. Last time out, he allowed four runs (on only two hits) over 6 2/3 innings in a win at Colorado.  Before that, he held the D'backs to just one run and four hits over seven innings and again that was on the road. Here at home, Shields is 6-2 in 15 starts.  This is the third time in four years that San Diego has won the season series against Arizona and I just don't see motivation levels being very high among the D'backs players Sunday afternoon. 8* San Diego

8* Run Line Kansas City (2:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Royals +1.5.  Perhaps a post-division clinching hangover, Kansas City is on the verge of being swept here at home by AL Central rival Cleveland (who is still fighting for a Wild Card). After being shutout on Friday, they fell 9-5 yday and are now just 9-15 overall in September. The Indians, meanwhile, are above .500 for the first time since opening the season 2-1! Considering the money line for this matchup, I think getting KC plus the 1.5 is a really nice value. Not only do they have one of the best home records in baseball, but they've gone 26-16 this year in day games as well. I think it's unlikely that they get swept and even less likely that they lose this game by more than one run.

The Royals are not w/o motivation themselves down the stretch.  They've fallen into a tie for home field advantage in the American League (w/ Toronto) and would lose a tiebreak. Given their own success at home, not to mention Toronto's, I think it would be imperative for Ned Yost's club to want to finish w/ the AL's best overall record.  Starter Kris Medlen failed to get the job done Saturday and today Yost turns to Chris Young, who will be making his first start in two months.  He's been operating out of the bullpen since that time, but someone had to step up and fill the void in the rotation left by the struggling Jeremy Guthrie. Ironically, Young's last start came against Cleveland and he allowed just one run and five hits in 4 2/3 innings of work.  I expect him to pitch well enough today to give the Royals a chance to win.

There's two ways to look at Danny Salazar's last four starts vs. Kansas City.  One is an incredible strikeout rate (30 in 24 2/3 innings). The other is a 5.11 ERA.  Sometimes, I might give more credence to the former, but not here. Why? Well, one troubling sign w/ Salazar is that lately he's been record more outs via fly balls than ground balls and that, often times, can be an ominous sign. Over his L2 starts, it's been roughly a 2:1 ratio in "favor" of fly balls, which honestly, is terrible. When Salazar isn't striking people out, he struggles. He's also walked eight batters his L3 starts. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET):  I think that if you asked around, most bettors would think that this is not the time or the matchup to be jumping on the Eagles. They're 0-2 and looked positively inept last week at home vs. Dallas, losing 20-10 while gaining just 226 total yards of offense. Only seven of those yards came on the ground, which is downright embarrassing when you consider the money they are currently paying to running backs. But I happen to believe that this is an excellent "buy low" opportunity on Chip Kelly's team, which can't possibly play any worse. We've already seen a massive swing in the line for this game as the Eagles opened as the favorite on the road. There have been two previous instances this year where we witnessed a swing like this (MIN-SF Wk 1, TEN-CLE Wk 2) and both times saw the team the linesmakers initially had favored take care of business.

The Jets are off a high profile win Monday night over the Colts that has only further served to overvalue them in the marketplace. Keep in mind that I was on the Jets (in the first half) and even I was shocked how thoroughly they dominated one of the perceived AFC favorites.  But this is a short week and I'm guessing there could be a letdown. Over the L3 seasons, the Jets are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS the week after playing on Monday Night Football.  Turnovers have been positively huge for Gang Green to this point as they've forced 10 of them, including a preposterous 8 for 8 on fumble recoveries! That kind of luck simply cannot continue, at least to that degree.  The Jets are also dealing w/ a ton of injuries coming out of the Monday night game and WR Eric Decker, RB Chris Ivory and CB Darrelle Revis all may not play Sunday (check status).

For Philadelphia, RB DeMarco Murray will play and that's certainly a good thing in spite of last week's pitiful performance.  Keep in mind that this team was a missed field goal away from pulling off a huge second half comeback at Atlanta in Week 1.  The defense allowed only one touchdown last week and it wasn't until late in the fourth quarter. In what could very well end up being a low-scoring game, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Philadelphia

10* New Orleans (1:00 ET):  While I'm obviously disappointed by the news that Drew Brees will not be starting for the Saints Sunday, the line here now accounts for that and as bad as things may look, I think they stay inside the number in this critical division matchup. Carolina has hardly been the league's most dominant 2-0 team as Jacksonville and Houston are the two teams they've beaten.  Getting to face Luke McCown this week likely has the Panthers defense salivating, but remember they are w/o their best player as well, LB Luke Keuchly. The natural reaction of bettors/linesmakers is to overreact to a significant injury and that's what they've done here with Brees being out.  Take the points.

Another reason people are selling on the Saints right now is that they lost at home last week (as 10.5-pt favorites) to Tampa Bay.  I was a little surprised by the straight up result, but remember that I had the Bucs plus the points.  There's a ton of value in taking them now as they're a desperate 0-2 team w/o its starting QB.  While all of these games came w/ Brees, the Saints are 3-1 SU/ATS when coming off B2B SU losses the last two seasons.  It will be interesting to not see him under center (1st time in 10 years in NO), but expect a more run-oriented approach from Sean Payton.  The argument could be made that Brees' shoulder was holding the offense back last week.  McCown, while not even close to the same caliber of QB that Brees is, can at least make the claim of being healthy. 

Carolina is not w/o its own key injuries. I already mentioned Keuchly.  Before the season, they lost their top WR Kelvin Bejamin to an ACL. In two games, the offense has averaged just 22 points per game. While 2-0 ATS as favorites, I don't think that the Panthers are built to cover spreads of this magnitude.  In Week 1, they gained just 263 total yards against the Jaguars.  Remember that last year's team also started 2-0 and then went 1-8-1 its next ten games.   QB Cam Newton has to carry the offensive load too often.  He actually led the team in rushing last week. McCown may not be ideal, but he looked decent enough in the preseason (24 of 35 for 323 yds w/ 3-0 TD-INT ratio) and that was with mostly the first string offense, and should have RB CJ Spiller back in the lineup. I see the Saints covering this game. 10* New Orleans

10* San Jose State (10:30 ET):  We're back to the well w/ SJSU after they let us down two weeks ago at Air Force.  That game wasn't nearly as one-sided as the 37-16 indicates, however, as the Spartans trailed by just one point entering the fourth quarter. The same holds true for last week's 35-21 setback at Oregon State, which they led by a touchdown at the half. Coming off a 3-9 campaign in 2014, I really like this team to take a leap in year three under HC Ron Caragher as they weren't nearly as bad as that record showed last year. That especially goes for conference play as they actually outgained Mountain West foes by an average of 82.8 yards per game, trailing only Boise State and San Diego State. Some will be surprised that they are favored here, but they beat Fresno State last time here at home and all three wins in 2014 came as favorites. Lay the points.  

That upset of Fresno State two years ago was a big one as the Bulldogs came in unbeaten and favored by eight, only to give up 62 points!  Last year saw them gain a measure of revenge w/ a 38-24 win (-2), but that game swung on a series of three big plays late in the second quarter, all of them going FSU's way, leading to three scoring drives (all TD's) that totaled only 48 yards.  For the game, total yardage was nearly identical.  This year's Fresno State team is not as strong and comes in off B2B blowout losses to Ole Miss and Utah.  While no shame there, the fact they allowed 118 points in those games is not good.  They trailed by as many as 28 last week at home to the Utes.   

Meanwhile, SJSU was actually tied in the second half, on the road, against a Pac 12 foe last week.  Now getting gashed for 303 yards on the ground is not good.   However, if there is one thing I can unequivocally state about these Spartans is that they're due to start covering some games.  After going a disappointing 3-9 ATS last year at the betting window (0-8 ATS as dogs), they've started 2015 1-2 vs. the number. But as mentioned above, they did generally take care of business as favorites last year, going 3-1 SU/ATS. While the San Jose State QB situation is a bit murky, Fresno State's could be worse w/ starter Zack Greenlee having been arrested. His status is unknown for this game. Freshman Chason Virgil is already out for the season, so if Greenlee didn't play, it could be a bad scene.  A starting linebacker was also arrested as well.  10* San Jose State

10* Arkansas (7:00 ET):  Who in the world set this line? Kliff Kingsbury?  I realize that right now is a fashionable time to bash the Razorbacks and HC Brett Bielema, but at the start of the season this line would have basically been a pick 'em, right? Now the Hogs are getting a full score against what I still consider to be a "second tier" SEC team. Yes, I had Texas A&M in their season opening win over Arizona State, but that had just as much to do with the other side. I would still rank the Aggies below Ole Miss, Georgia, LSU and yes even Alabama in the SEC pecking order.  This line reeks of a classic overreaction to recent results as I believe Arkansas can bounce back, even on a neutral field, in what is a "must win" for them. Take the points.

What makes this one all the more important for Bielema is that his teams have yet to win a single SEC game outside of Fayatteville, save for a win over FCS Sanford in Little Rock in the second game of 2013. Overall, they've dropped 10 straight SEC road/neutral site games. That includes a loss here in Arlington last year to A&M where they led 28-14 in the fourth quarter before giving up two long TD passes and then losing the game in OT.  I at least had them +9, so it was still a win for me. But what a swing in the line in a year's time, which of course reflects the public's current distaste for Arkansas.  Incredibly, the Razorbacks are 0-8 SU in games decided by single digits under Bielema and last week was an 11-pt loss.  On the bright side, the Hogs did run for 228 yards LW vs. Texas Tech. A&M has given up nearly 400 yards rushing the L2 games to Ball State and Nevada. I believe Arkansas will be able to move the ball in this game, easily.

Now Bielema will have to sort out some issues defensively as that unit didn't force a single punt last week.  But the first two games, they allowed just over 300 YPG to UTEP and Toledo, two very good offensive teams. Granted, neither is at the level of A&M.  But I'm still not sold on QB Kyle Allen, who is averaging a SEC-low 3.3 yards per pass attempt on third down.  Last week's game vs. Nevada was a little closer than expected for the Aggies, who are just 4-12 ATS in SEC play the last two seasons. 10* Arkansas

8* NY Mets (4:10 ET): I tried my hand w/ the Reds (on the run line) in the series opener Thursday, but to no avail as they lost 6-4 (for the record was a 3-3 game heading into the seventh).  Things clearly went a lot worse for them last night as they ended up on the wrong end of a 12-5 beatdown here at Great American Ballpark (trailed 12-0 at one point).  It was the Mets' ninth straight win on the road and they're 28-11 in all away games since July 1. Furthermore, they have the best all-time win percentage of any visitor here at GAB (24-15). I know I questioned the Mets' potential level of motivation coming into the series, but that won't be an issue here as they have a chance to clinch the NL East w/ a win.

Yes, it will be Matt Harvey starting (possibly for the final time in the regular season, if all goes well) and we all know how things ended up in his most recent outing. For five dominant innings, Harvey looked great against the Yankees, pitching a shutout and allowing only one hit. But a Scott Boras-led edict had to be followed (innings limit) and it backfired on manager Terry Collins as his bullpen imploded immediately after Harvey's departure.  For how much ever time he is in there this afternoon, I have every reason to believe Harvey will be effective yet again as he has a career 2.25 ERA vs. Cincinnati (three starts). The bullpen may not be an issue either if the offense performs at anywhere near the level they did Friday.  It's also nice knowing that the Mets are an outstanding 29-15 in day games this season.

Cincinnati is going w/ an all-rookie rotation and up next is John Lamb.  In four home starts so far, Lamb has a 5.14 ERA and 1.762 WHIP.  Starting in St. Louis his last time out, he didn't allow a single run, but the team still lost the game.  The Reds are just in a very bad way right now as last night marked their sixth straight loss and this is now a 90+ loss season for them. During the losing streak, they've been outscored 41-17.  The Reds are just 16-31 in day games this season. 8* NY Mets

8* Run Line White Sox (4:05 ET):  Chicago prevailed last night, after losing the series opener Thursday, 5-2 here in the Bronx.  Let's be honest here; the Yankees are going to be a Wild Card and they know it. That means motivation could be somewhat low in this final week.  Case in point, Adam Warren takes another turn in the rotation Saturday afternoon, only due to the injury to Masahiro Tanaka.  Warren is working on a pitch limit, which didn't serve him well his last start as he got into trouble early and lasted only 3 1/3 innings against the Blue Jays, giving up three runs in a 4-2 loss.  Off the win Friday, I don't see the White Sox doing any worse than a one-run loss here.

Veteran southpaw John Danks will toe the rubber for the White Sox in this one.  While his YTD numbers on the road are less than desirable, Danks did open September w/ a complete game effort in Kansas City where he allowed just one run. Last time out, he gave up just three runs, albeit in five innings against Cleveland. Still though, it was his fourth consecutive start allowing 3 ER or fewer.  As touched upon yday, this Yankees lineup is really scuffling right now.  Much to my chagrin (I had the Over), they hit into four double plays Friday and scored only two runs. Note they came into the game batting a collective .227 their previous seven games.  Over their L10 games, the Yanks have scored more than three runs only three times. 

The Yankees are only 12-11 as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range on the money line.  Meanwhile, the White Sox have played in a MLB-high 56 one-run games this season.  Overall, the Yankees have lost 10 of 17 and their last win, the series opener, was by exactly one run. After being held hitless for the first three innings last night, New York finished w/ just six for the game. Meanwhile, the White Sox last two losses were each by exactly one run.  8* Run Line White Sox (+1.5)

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET):  I'm "zigging and zagging" in this series as last night it was the A's coming through for me (behind seven strong innings from Sonny Gray) in a 5-4 win. Ironically, one-run games have been the issue all year for Oakland (now just 18-32), but it's San Francisco that is now 1-15 their L16 in them. Even more depressing for the Giants is that they are now out of the Wild Card race. But, in a game where emotions should be high in the Bay because of the pitching matchup, I'm still willing to throw my support behind last year's World Series Champs.  Oakland had lost five straight prior to yday while the Giants actually still have a better run differential than all but five teams in all of baseball.

Barry Zito, of all people, will be pitching tonight for the A's.  He will face former teammate Tim Hudson in a battle of 40+ year olds that were a core part of the Oakland rotation during the height of the "Moneyball" era.  Zito also spent time w/ the Giants and was a key piece during the '12 World Series run.  In 2015, however, he has spent the entire year at Triple-A and this is basically just the franchise making a nice gesture to a player nearing retirement.  I would not expect very much from him in this spot.  Nor would I expect much from the team, who is just 24-33 in day games this season. Before yday, the A's had been hitting just .226 the past seven games while getting outscored by an average of three runs per game.

San Francisco's Hudson has actually been in peak form lately.  Over his last three starts, he has a 1.10 ERA and 1.041 WHIP. Last time out, against Arizona, he delivered six scoreless innings of four-hit ball.  Unlike Zito, who may be limited to as few as 50 pitches here, Hudson is capable of going at least six innings on a regular basis. He's thrown at least 70 pitches in each of his L3 starts. Hudson also pitched his team to victory in the previous series vs. the A's, allowing just three runs in five innings.  The Giants have a winning record in day games to boot.  8* San Francisco

8* Tennessee (3:30 ET):  It has not surprised me to see Tennessee bet to the role of favorite in this one, nor would it surprise me to see them stay there. What did surprise me is Florida being favored at the open. I realize that the Gators were probably being undersold last week going into Kentucky, when I saw several TV pundits pick against them as 3.5-pt road favorites (won 14-9).  That win extended a series win streak to 29 games over the Wildcats. This week, another win streak, albeit one not nearly as long, is put to the test.  The Gators have beaten the Vols ten straight times, by an average of 14 points per game. But coming into the year, I feel that this was the time everyone would call for UT to end the streak. I think they in fact will.

Maybe it's because Tennessee let so many backers down against Oklahoma that this line opened the way it did.  But remember, I was on the Sooners in that one as they pulled out a somewhat fortunate win/cover in double OT. Otherwise, the Volunteers have looked pretty good this season.  They've rolled to 55+ points in their two wins and Florida doesn't have nearly enough firepower to keep up with that pace. The Vols had 600+ yds total offense in the opener against Bowling Green. The Gators barely have that many in their last two games - combined!  Now Florida does have a good defense and that is why they were able to pull off a 10-9 win last year in Knoxville. But as good as that defense may be, this is a better Vols' offense this year and I just don't think Florida is going to be able to score enough points.

It cannot be understated just how big of a game this is to Tennessee HC Butch Jones in his third season on the job. He brings an experienced team into Gainesville where as Florida should be a in transition year under 1st year HC Jim McElwain. SImply put, Jones must win this game. Fortunately, the Vols are catching a huge break here in that Florida has decided to suspend QB Treon Harris as well as standout CB Jalen Tabor.  While Harris was no longer the starter, his absence now puts a lot of pressure on redshirt freshman Will Grier and this struggling Florida offense, which had only six plays of 10+ yards LW vs. Kentucky.  Having taken on Oklahoma already, Tennessee is more battle-tested. While, like Florida last year, they blew that game late, it will be a different story here. 8* Tennessee

8* Minnesota (3:30 ET):  While I didn't think Minnesota would cover a lofty 24-point spread last week vs. Kent State, I was surprised to the degree that the Gophers actually struggled here at home.  They won only 10-7 over a team that their Big 10 brethren (Illinois) beat 52-3 just two weeks earlier.  What that result has done for us here, however, is create plenty of line value against yet another MAC opponent, that being Ohio.  The 3-0 Bobcats, coached by Frank Solich, haven't really been tested so far (save for a 21-10 win at home over Marshall) and this line looks awfully short for having to hit the road against a Big 10 opponent. I'll lay the points on Homecoming Weekend at TCF Bank Stadium as the Gophers roll.

It's been three close games to this point for Minnesota. First, it was a loss to TCU, but no shame there as they were 16-pt dogs to the #3 team in the country. Then they had to go to Colorado State, where they pulled out a 23-20 win in overtime. Keep in mind that Fort Collins is never an easy place for the visitor to win at (CSU 6-0 at home last year) and the Gophers were actually +99 in total yardage as well as +9 in first downs. Last week's snoozer against Kent State saw the defense allow just 142 yards TOTAL, but three turnovers from the offense kept things closer than they should have been. QB Mitch Leidner clearly has to play better for the Gophers, but according to HC Jerry Kill, the offense's struggles are more about the line. The bottom line though is that there's nothing wrong w/ the defense, which didn't give up a touchdown last week and is allowing just 150 passing yards per game.

So this will clearly be the best defense Ohio has faced all season.  While they beat Marshall outright in Week 2 as a 3-pt dog, that was in Athens. Previously, the team had been just 3-9 SU/ATS as a dog.  They are also on a 1-6 SU/ATS run vs teams sporting a winning record. Little can be derived from the Bobcats' other two wins, the opener against Idaho and last week vs. FCS SE Louisiana.  Having forced a total of nine turnovers in three games has really helped Solich's team as well. If Minnesota gets its ground game going again and protects the ball, they should have no trouble here. 8* Minnesota

8* Baylor (3:00 ET):  Normally, I would not look to lay this many points, especially given the way not only Baylor, but several other top teams, have looked against seemingly inferior competition. But given the circumstances, I think a blowout is in the cards Saturday afternoon in Waco. The fifth ranked Bears are off a bye and through two games are averaging a whopping 61 PPG. With Alabama going down last weekend, it is Baylor that now owns the nation's longest home win streak at 17 straight games. Furthermore, they have been an average of almost 33 points per game. While 0-2 ATS this year, the Bears were previously 6-1 ATS when favored by 31+ points. They roll here.

Rice has quietly amassed one of the best spread records in the nation since the start of last season. They've gone 12-4 ATS for HC David Baliff during that time and that includes 3-0 ATS this year. But the perfect mark in 2015 is not w/o some good fortune.  Two weeks ago, the Owls pulled out the ultimate backdoor cover at Texas, scoring two late TD's to just get under the 14.5-point spread. Last week, in a game I went against them, they were the beneficiaries of three North Texas turnovers in a 38-24 win. While they rolled up over 550 yards of total offense in that game, that's nothing compared to Baylor's average of 769.5 YPG (#1 in FBS by a mile). Also troubling for Rice is that they allowed 478 yards LW and don't forget last year's regular season finale where they allowed 76 points to Louisiana Tech!  They came into 2015 inexperienced on that side of the ball to boot.

Baylor returned more starters this year than any other team in the top 10. The one "wild card" was thought to be QB Seth Russell, but Art Briles' offense is the definition of "plug in and play" and so far Russell has thrown for 300+ yards in both games and has nine TD passes.  Two weeks ago, against overmatched Lamar, two Baylor receivers went over 100 yards and three running backs gained over 100 yds on the ground. I realize that game, as well as the opener vs. SMU, were closer than expected, but I think both instances were cases where Baylor was "playing down" to its level of competition. Off an early bye week, they'll be focused here and poised to blow Rice out of the water. 8* Baylor

8* Michigan (12:00 ET): An argument could be made that because of Jim Harbaugh, Michigan came into the year overrated.  However, they were actually underdogs in the season opener at Utah, and while they lost that game, they played the Utes very tough (had slight edge in total yards) and very well could have won the game if not for a -2 differential in turnovers. What has followed is B2B dominant wins at home where they've held opponents to an average of just 7 points and 186.5 yards per game. While it's a step up in class this week in hosting a third straight "Western" team for a Noon ET kickoff, I think there's a better argument to be made that BYU, an underdog for a 4th straight week, could have little left in the tank.  I say lay the points.

In retrospect, it was unwise to lay so many points against this BYU team last week w/ UCLA starting a freshman at QB.  This week, however, the oddsmakers aren't being nearly as kind. That freshman QB, Josh Rosen, made plenty of costly errors last week that allowed the Cougars to hang around.  There were three interceptions, two of which came in the end zone after long drives by the Bruins and another which set up BYU for an easy field goal. This time, however, it was the Cougars that faded late and blew a lead, a stark contrast to their first two games. I think it's now reasonable to ask what BYU may have left in the tank after taking on arguably the hardest schedule in the country to this point w/ this being their third road game vs. a Power 5 school already! Having to head East for an early start time this week does Bronco Mendenhall's team absolutely no favors either.

This Michigan defense doesn't get nearly the credit it deserves. Last year's unit ranked 7th in the country in yards per game allowed and this year the Wolverines rank 7th in terms of yards per play allowed (3.84). Thus, I expect BYU quarterback Mangum to struggle here. On offense, Michigan has really gotten its ground game going the L2 wks (479 yards!) and against UCLA, BYU just gave up almost 300 yards rushing. If Wolverines QB Jake Rudock protects the ball, then I see the Maize and Blue "taking care of business" at the Big House.  Last week against UNLV was a little more one-sided than the final score shows as the Wolverines went up 28-0 early in the 4Q and then took their "foot off the gas." 8* Michigan

10* Oakland (10:05 ET):  In case it wasn't obvious already, the Giants season is over following B2B losses in San Diego, both coming in the final at-bat.  Last night's was particularly painful (I was on them) as they had Madison Bumgarner starting and outhit the Padres 13-6.  After this weekend, the reigning World Series Champs will officially be eliminated and the five-team playoff field set in the National League. That seems to make them particularly susceptible in this Interleague series w/ Oakland as there's nothing left to play for and tonight they go up against Sonny Gray, the A's ace. Granted, this has been a disastrous season for the Athletics, who have lost five in a row coming in, but Gray definitely gives them the edge here.

Now Gray has struggled mightily of late. He's allowed 6+ ER in three of his last four starts, but the exception was seven shutout innings of five-hit ball here at home. Remember that coming into September, he was actually leading the American League in earned run average at 2.18. He'd allowed 5+ ER in only two of his first 26 starts, so this just seems like a rough patch that he's likely to work through.  He's faced San Francisco only once, last year, and allowed just one run over seven innings in a 6-1 A's win and that was against Bumgarner. Here, he'll be facing off against a much weaker starter, that being Mike Leake, who has not produced for the Giants as they'd expected when they made the trade w/ the Reds to bring him in.

Leake has a 7.36 ERA and 1.977 WHIP his L3 starts overall and lasted only three innings his last time out, which would be his shortest outing of the last two seasons.  The team has lost three of the last four times he's been on the mound, including 6-0 to Arizona last Saturday. Rumors of "arm tightness" don't sound very good if you're a Giants fan.  Oakland, whose season would look so much better were it not for a hideous 17-32 record in one-run games, is playing w/ revenge for a three-game sweep suffered in San Francisco back in July. They have won five straight over the Giants here at home, however.  10* Oakland

8* Oregon State (10:00 ET): Already a pretty difficult spot to begin with (traveling to Corvalis on a short week), things will be even worse for Stanford here if they are w/o starting QB Kevin Hogan. As you know, the Cardinal are off a big win Saturday night in the Coliseum as they beat USC outright, 41-31 as 10-point underdogs. For them, it was a potential season changer as they'd already suffered a bad loss in the season opener, 16-6 at Northwestern. I said I was "high" on this Cardinal team coming into the season, but also played against them in that game and was sure to note their poor history as a road favorite (now just 4-5 SU/2-7 ATS L3 years) in my analysis. It's "more of the same" here as they face a more familiar foe.

After a horrible showing the week prior at Michigan (early start time!), Oregon State bounced back w/ a much needed 35-21 win over San Jose State at home last Saturday night. They produced a whopping 303 yards rushing in the win, which was also just their third cover in the last 13 games dating back to the start of last season. Corvallis used to be a place where other teams dreaded visiting, but the last two years have seen the Beavers post losing SU (5-8) and ATS (3-10) records at Reser Stadium.  The result of that is positive (at least here) though as we're able to grab some pretty substantial line value. Note that while OSU has lost five straight years to Stanford, the home team is actually 6-2 SU the last eight meetings. Head coach Gary Andersen did not inherit much in his first year on the job (just 10 returning starters), but he's also now 37-10 SU his L47 games dating back to his time w/ Utah State and Wisconsin.

The Beavers were +10 in first downs and outgained San Jose State 438-253 last week. That makes me feel good about them facing a Stanford defense that gave up over 400 yards last week. Meanwhile, the OSU defense pitched a 2H shutout.  It would be great if they didn't have to go up against QB Hogan, who will not practice all week & is a gametime decision, as neither Cardinal backup has any game experience. But, regardless, OSU is the play here as Stanford is in a major letdown spot.  8* Oregon State

8* Calgary (8:30 ET):  The first time these two Western Division rivals met, it was actually a close game as the Stampeders survived in a 26-25 victory where they did not cover the seven-point spread. But here in Winnipeg, four weeks ago, the rematch was far more lopsided. It again went the way of the Stamps as they rolled to an easy 36-8 win and cover despite the fact that the Blue Bombers were off a bye that week.  Since opening the year 0-6 against the spread (five games decided by five pts or less), the reigning Grey Cup Champions have finally begun to resemble "old form" w/ wins in six of their last seven contests (only loss at Edmonton) including last week, 35-23 over B.C. as DD home favorites. I'm laying the points here.

Winnipeg, as I've said before, is probably the worst team in the league right now and, yes, I'm not forgetting 1-10 Saskatchewan (whose only win is at the Bombers' expense). You'll recall that I went against them last week as they played at rested Montreal, who proceeded to hand them a lopsided 35-14 defeat. The loss dropped the Bombers to 1-5 SU/ATS their last six overall and where things get really ugly is when you look at the fact they've now been outscored by 129 points in 12 games, easily the worst differential in the league. The offense could not find the end zone last week until the fourth quarter. Remember, they're still w/o QB Drew Willy and Matt Nichols is the franchise's ninth QB in just the last four seasons. This is also a team that's used a total of 42 different starters this season. Something else that I think matters here is Winnipeg is on a short week; they last played Sunday while Calgary last played Friday.

Meanwhile, a big key for the Stampeders has been the health of their QB, Bo Levi Mitchell, now 24-5 SU all-time as a starter.  They are just one of two teams (Ottawa) in the entire league this season to not have endured an injury at the pivot position.  On defense, they're really starting to come around and last week vs. BC didn't give up a single touchdown (both Lions TD's came via special teams). That same defense held Winnipeg to just 136 yds of total offense in the last meeting, which was their sixth straight win here in Manitoba and 12th in the L13 meetings overall vs. the Bombers. By the way, RB Jon Cornish ran for a season-high 120 yds in the first meeting as well. Look out for the second quarter where the Stampeders have a +83 scoring differential for the year.  8* Calgary

10* Houston (8:10 ET):  This shapes up as the most important series of the year in the American League West, especially on the Houston side of things.  The Astros were of course swept in Arlington earlier this month and that greatly turned the tide in the division race as its the Rangers currently holding a 3.5-game lead in the standings after they won yday in Oakland, 8-1. Texas has been the hot team down the stretch, going 40-20 overall their L60 games including a perfect 7-0 mark against Houston. But I think this series, tonight's opener in particular, sets up well for the Astros at home as not only do they have the revenge angle to play off of, but they were off Thursday. The last two series vs. the Rangers were both played in Arlington and significant is the fact Houston is 51-27 at home (and just 29-46 on the road).

  Not only are the Astros no longer in first place in the AL West, but after dropping 7 of their last 10 overall, they now have two teams (Twins, Angels) within two games of them for the final Wild Card.  While a young team like this in a pennant race is no safe bet, the home record does speak for itself, plus they'll have veteran lefty Scott Kazmir on the mound Friday. Kazmir has pitched far better than his 12-17 TSR indicates as he has a 2.73 ERA and 1.149 WHIP. While he hasn't necessarily been as good for Houston as he was in Oakland before the trade, he does boast a 1.60 ERA in five starts against Texas w/ both teams.  Earlier this month, he allowed just three runs (two earned) and five hits to them in 7 IP. Against them in August, he allowed just one run on six hits. Kazmir has also been a better pitcher at home this season than on the road.

The Rangers' Yovani Gallardo has enjoyed a great deal of success vs. Houston in his career, dating back to the time when he was with Milwaukee and the Astros were a National League team. But lately, he's struggled a bit w/ a 4.91 ERA and 1.774 WHIP his L3 starts. It's been a while since we've seen Gallardo make it through a full six innings (August 22nd was the last time); in fact that's happened just three times since the start of July!  I feel the Astros are really due to breakthough tonight, at home, in their most important game of the year. 10* Houston

10* Over White Sox/Yankees (7:05 ET):  It was just a 3-2 final in Thursday's series opener, which went the Yankees' way despite the White Sox actually outhitting them, 11-7. Tonight, despite the fact that both starters have seemingly pitched well of late, I'm anticipating a lot more scoring.  Though it's a distant second to Toronto, New York is second nonetheless in runs scored in all of MLB and is averaging 4.8 rpg.  Lately though, they've struggled to put runs on the board w/ nine straight games of four or less. I look for that to change Friday as the Over cashed in all three games of the only previous series the teams played in 2015. There were at least 10 runs scored in all three of those games. So, take the Over.

The Yankees will start CC Sabathia in this game. He has a 1.04 ERA his L3 starts, but a 1.153 WHIP and when the WHIP is higher than the ERA, that's a somewhat troubling sign.  It means that he's getting away w/ allowing a significant number of baserunners (who in turn aren't scoring), which usually is not sustainable practice. He has issued 15 walks his L5 starts.  Here at home, the hefty lefty does not have very good numbers at all w/ a 5.75 ERA and 1.492 WHIP in 12 starts.  The Over is 7-5.  This White Sox lineup that he'll be facing here is not the most formidable, but they are actually better on the road than at home. Plus, they're averaging 4.1 runs per game vs. lefties.

Carlos Rodon is the southpaw going for Chicago in this one and he's been sharp of late, though his WHIP is still 1.402 for the season.  Since August 11th, he's 7 for 7 in quality starts, allowing 2 ER or less every time out. But he's also benefited from facing the same opponent in B2B starts three times during that span.  Rodon wasn't even close to being effective in his start vs. the Yankees this year as he gave up eight runs in only three innings.  After allowing just 1 HR in his first eight starts, Rodon hasn't allowed one in B2B starts for the first time since then.  Last time out marked just the second time he's gone longer than seven full innings.  Late in the year, fatigue could be a factor for the young pitcher. 10* Over White Sox/Yankees

8* San Francisco (9:10 ET): Having Madison Bumgarner on the hill usually translates into an automatic victory. Over the big lefty's last 13 starts, the team has gone 10-3. They lost his last time out, but that was certainly no fault of Bumgarner as he allowed just two runs - only one of them earned - over eight innings. Unfortunately, his offense failed to score and had just two hits in a 2-0 loss to Arizona as Giants' backers suffered a terrible loss as the team was -225 on the money line. However, I don't anticipate any problems tonight as Bumgarner faces a Padres lineup he nearly no-hit less than two weeks ago. In his last three starts vs. San Diego, last year's World Series MVP has posted a spectacular 0.76 ERA. 

The "odd year curse" has struck the Giants yet again as it's a virtual lock at this point that they won't be going to the playoffs (won World Series in 2010, '12 and '14). But that doesn't mean that they haven't had a strong season nonetheless. They have a better run differential than all National League teams, save for St. Louis and Pittsburgh, the two that have already clinched playoff berths. They're almost certain to finish w/ a winning record. Bumgarner has been pretty ridiculous all season and will be going for his 19th win tonight. He's allowed 3 ER or less in 23 of his last 27 starts and has a 0.838 WHIP his L3.  Against the Padres on Sept 12, he didn't allow a single baserunner until there were two outs in the eighth inning. He finished w/ 9 K's in the CG effort. He's gone at least seven innings 18 times this year and w/ a 2.84 ERA and 1.01 WHIP is set to finish strong. His KW ratio for the year is 219-35.

San Diego counters w/ Ian Kennedy, who actually opposed Bumgarner 12 days ago.  That game didn't go nearly as well for Kennedy as he allowed seven runs in only 4 2/3 IP and he had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2).  Kennedy now has an 8.04 ERA and 1.595 WHIP his last three starts, all losses.  Overall, the team has lost the five times he's taken the hill.  The Padres did win last night, 5-4 in walk-off fashion, but this is a group that has sustained heavy losses at the betting window throughout the season (-14.1 units) and hasn't won B2B games in over two weeks. 8* San Francisco

8* NY Giants (8:25 ET): As you may have read elsewhere, the Giants are the first team in league history to open the season 0-2 SU while holding double digit leads in the fourth quarter of both games. We all saw the debacle that unfolded in Week 1 at Dallas (still ended up being a wire-to-wire cover for me as my 10* Sunday Night Game of the Month!). Then, last week, saw them up 20-10 on Atlanta heading into the fourth quarter, only to allow a pair of touchdowns, the last one coming w/ only 1:14 remaining. Still though, they had a chance to win the game and were it not for the game's lone turnover, they could have actually put the Falcons away before what ended up being the GW drive.  Lay the points here.

I realize that a lot of people are writing the Giants off right now, but really, they could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. Losses in close games killed this team last year (0-4 SU in games decided by 8 pts or less), so their misfortune really is "due" to turnaround.  While there are injuries on both sides of the ball to deal with on a short week, at least they draw an opponent (Washington) that they've swept three years in a row (6-0 SU) including a 4-0 ATS mark the past two seasons.  Both of LY's victories came by double digits, one of them on a Thursday night and that was a 45-14 win in D.C.!  Home teams typically do have a big advantage in these Thursday night games and sure enough, the Redskins are a woeful 2-14 SU/5-11 ATS on the road the past two seasons. They're also 4-23 SU as an underdog, including 0-8 on the road in the +3.5 to +7 range.

Washington lost its first game to Miami, 17-10, w/ the difference being a punt return for TD by the Dolphins. But they were able to bounce back last week w/ a 24-10 win over the Rams.  Still though, I like the idea of betting against Kirk Cousins off a win as I'm not sold on his abilities to be a consistent NFL starter. In last year's Thursday night matchup vs. the Giants, Cousins was downright awful as he turned the ball over five times. (Eli Manning, meanwhile, threw for 5 TDs). Last week was just his 2nd start w/o a turnover. The run game was the real story for the 'Skins against the Rams, but the Giants' defense is actually allowing the third fewest yards on the ground.  8* NY Giants

10* Over Redskins/Giants (8:25 ET):  Washington has played a couple of low-scoring games to this point (L 17-10, W 24-10) while for all intents and purposes, the Giants should be 2-0 Under as well (opener vs. Dallas went Over on GW drive). Despite this, and the fact that the Under has cashed in six of the past seven matchups between these two, I like the Over Thursday night.  This is a low total by today's NFL standards, especially when you consider the O/U line for both of the Giants' first two games closed at 50+ points. It's also relatively low when you look at the past history between these division rivals as every O/U line for those past seven matchups closed higher than what we currently have here. Take the Over.

I feel that the Giants are due to break out offensively. They gained almost 400 total yards in last week's 24-20 loss to Atlanta.  Odell Beckham Jr had seven catches for 146 yards, including a long touchdown, but was curiously silent down the stretch. Remember that in his one game vs. the Redskins defense last year, he had a monster performance w/ 12 catches and 143 yards w/ three touchdowns.  When the Giants were w/o him in the earlier season meeting, they still scored 45 points as Eli Manning threw five touchdown passes.  So this offense has certainly found success against this Washington defense in the past and I see no reason why it shouldn't happen again Thursday.

Now, the one concern for the Giants this week lies in the secondary where they could be short-handed. Top cornerback Dominique Rogers-Cromartie has a concussion and its unlikely he'd be cleared on a short week. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has yet to throw for more than 210 yards this season, but should pass that benchmark here. We may not end up needing many points from the Redskins offense anyway, if this game goes as I anticipate.  Also, the Over is a perfect 5-0 the L5 times Washington has been off an ATS win and 9-4 following a game where they allowed 15 points or fewer.  The Over is also 5-2 the L7 times the Giants have been off an ATS loss. 10* Over Redskins/Giants

8* Kansas City (8:10 ET): Clearly, this is not what the Royals envisioned when they made the deal to bring in Johnny Cueto from the Reds at the trade deadline.  After a pretty strong start to his KC career, Cueto now has an 0-6 TSR his L6 starts and up until his last time out had been hit hard in every one of them. But, off a come from behind win last night (that I was on), I see the Royals taking care of business for Cueto tonight. After trailing 3-1, the reigning AL Champs came back to take the game in extra innings Wednesday and now can actually clinch the AL Central (would be 1st division title since '85) tonight if all goes right. I think it will for Cueto and company.

I mentioned earlier that Cueto had been struggling prior to his last time out.  Well, last Friday did see him go seven strong innings and he allowed just two runs. Unfortunately, the bullpen could not get the job done and the team lost 5-4 to Detroit. Justin Verlander was equally sharp that day for the Tigers, but I wouldn't expect the same tonight out of Seattle's James Paxton.  Over his L3 starts, Paxton has a woeful 2.00 WHIP and hasn't lasted a full five innings even once. He's allowed a total of 24 baserunners in just 12 innings. So, Kansas City should certainly have its fair share of opportunities to support Cueto in this one. The offense has collected a total of 38 hits its last three games while also drawing 13 walks. 

The Mariners, as I said in yday's analysis, simply aren't a very good team. Their roster is deeply flawed w/ a "stars and scrubs" approach that simply does not work in today's game.  Last night's loss dropped them to 27-48 this season when they don't have any of their three prized righties - Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma or Taijuan Walker - on the bump.  Kansas City is averaging 4.8 runs per game vs. LH starters this season. The Royals also have one of the top homefield advantages in the sport as they are 49-28 at Kauffman Stadium this year.  The bullpen issues that plagued them have been addressed and Cueto's issues (which were reportedly w/ catcher Salvador Perez) seem to have been straightened out as well.  Needing both a win and Twins' loss tonight to clinch the division, KC will at least do its part. 8* Kansas City

10* Cincinnati (7:30 ET):  This is similar to last week's Thursday night matchup (Clemson-L'ville) in that the public has flocked to the favorite, betting the line up pretty dramatically, in the wake of a couple uninspired performances from the other side. In this case though, the line move has been even more dramatic as we can now grab a full TD more w/ the underdog than we could have originally.  I think it's important to point out that Cincinnati was the preseason choice of many to win the American Conference (now two divisions), so writing them off based on a loss to Temple and close call vs. Miami (OH) might be premature. They're 0-3 ATS, yes, but were favored in every game. The line value here is just too good to pass up. Take the points.

Memphis is in the AAC's West Division and coming off a 10-3 season in 2014 has opened 3-0 SU.  Like Cincinnati, they opened against a FCS opponent. The Tigers followed that w/ a 32-pt road win over Kansas, maybe the worst team from any of the Power 5 conferences. Last week, they held off Bowling Green in a wild 44-41 final that saw four lead changes and Memphis' rally back from a 10-point halftime deficit on he road. They were outgained 579-541, in victory, and obviously that's a lot of yardage to be giving up.  Believe it or not, including a wild bowl win over BYU, this team has now won 10 straight games dating back to the end of last year. I'm not buying into the streak, however, as the majority of wins came against bad teams. I'm not surprised that they've given up a lot of points the L2 games as they brought only three defensive starters back from LY's team.

This is a huge revenge game for Cincinnati, who was handed its worst home loss in a decade last year, 41-14 (-3), by the Tigers. With future weekday games coming up against Miami (FL) and BYU, the Bearcats are staring down a real possibility of opening 2-4 SU, so I'm confident we will be getting their best shot here.  Memphis is just 1-4 ATS the past two seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points w/ two outright losses.  The line move in this case was just too severe. I know Cincy will likely be w/o starting QB Gunner Kiel. But if called into duty, freshman Hayden Moore led the GW drive last week.  Above everything else, nine turnovers are what's hurt the Bearcats the L2 games. Presuming they clean that up, they certainly should be able to keep this one close throughout.  This offense gained a 545 total yards itself last week.  10* Cincinnati

10* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5.  The Mets have dropped six of eight and just dropped back to back games at home to lowly Atlanta. One of those (Tuesday) saw me on the Braves +1.5. I take a similar approach here as I'll continue to maintain this is a precarious time for the Metropolitans seeing as they clearly are going to make the playoffs and have nothing to really play for while attempting to rest their starting rotation. Cincinnati may have lost four in a row (all on the road), but they are far more formidable here at Great American Ballpark where their record is 34-40. They have revenge here for a three-game sweep suffered up in Queens back in June where two of the losses were by one run. They do no worse than a one-run loss here.

If there's one thing you have to be concerned about w/ the Mets, it's their road record. While now 37-37 for the year away from home, that record was a lot worse early on in the season.  After I won going against them Tuesday, last night was a real shocker for the team as the Braves scored all six of their runs over the final three innings, including the GW three-run homer (by Freddie Freeman) in the top half of the ninth. That kind of loss can certainly have a "carryover" type effect the following day. For just the sixth time this year, the Mets will turn to Steven Matz on Thursday. He's allowed 2 ER or less in each of his first five outings, one of them against the Reds, but his KW ratio hasn't been that impressive of late and I'm interested to see how he performs now that he's taking regular turns in the rotation. 

The Mets' offense was actually the primary reason the team took off here in the second half, but lately the lineup hasn't been hitting (.222 BA last 7 games) and they've scored a grand total of 11 runs the L5 games.  Meanwhile, I'm not going to fault the Reds for getting swept in St. Louis to start the week as that's probably the result you would have expected.  The club's all-rookie rotation continues w/ Josh Smith on Thursday and last time out saw the team win for the first time w/ him on the mound.  10* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* Phoenix (8:05 ET):  The defending WNBA champion Mercury, I think, caught a big break in Round 1 as they drew Tulsa. The result was an easy 2-0 sweep (only team to sweep their series) with wins coming by 33 and 24 points. Meanwhile, top-seeded Minnesota was taken to three games by Los Angeles and Tuesday night's Game 3 victory was a lot closer than the 91-80 final score indicated. This is the Western Conference Final we all anticipated at the start of the season and it's a rematch from last year when Phoenix had the home court edge and won in three games. I think that the reigning champs come into this year's rematch undervalued as they won three of five regular season matchups vs. the Lynx. Take the points.

Yes, Minnesota has an outstanding home court advantage. All-time, in the playoffs, they are 18-2 SU at the Target Center. But no team has had better success against them than have the Mercury, who have gone 8-4 SU head to head including LY's Western Conference Final. While lack of rest certainly didn't hurt the top seed in last night's Eastern Conference Final, I do believe it is significant that Phoenix was able to wrap up its first round series on Saturday while Minnesota was taken to the limit by Los Angeles. The Mercury have won five of their last six games overall, only dropping the meaningless regular season finale by four points.

I wasn't surprised to see Phoenix post the league's worst ATS record during the regular season as often times the champ comes in overvalued. Remember they were also w/o Brittney Griner for the first seven games of the season. Minnesota hasn't been much better at the betting window themselves, going just 16-21 ATS overall. I realize that the Mercury are 0-6 SU in the road underdog role this season, but it's not often they are getting this many points.  They've actually outscored opponents on the road this year (despite an 8-10 SU record).  The Lynx have really struggled to cover games down the home stretch (just 4-9 ATS L13 games overall), plus they were blown out in their lone loss in Round 1 (trailed by as many as 18 points).  This will be a back and forth game throughout.  10* Phoenix

10* Cleveland (8:10 ET): The Indians just can't seem to get over .500, can they?  The last time it happened, they were 2-1! Last night saw the Tribe suffer a crushing (3-1) loss to the Twins that kept them 4.5 games back of the Wild Card w/ three teams to jump over. They're currently six games back of Houston in the win column. But the good news for tonight is the Corey Kluber will be on the mound. Granted, his return Thursday (following a three-week absence) didn't go as well as had been hoped for as he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs (two earned) in an 8-4 loss to the Royals. But this is still a pitcher that I believe in and the Twins are a team I don't believe in. So, I look for Kluber to take care of business tonight.

Kluber, last year's AL Cy Young winner, has had a most unlucky season. As I've discussed before, most of his numbers have remained the same. The one notable difference, and it's an obvious one, comes in the won-loss record.  His TSR of 10-19 has resulted in him being the top pitcher to bet AGAINST in 2015 MLB as he's -15.7 units, four worse than any other starter in baseball. That's hardly a good introduction to a pitcher I'm supporting in this spot, but again it's been more poor luck (which can be rectified) than poor performance. Like last week, Kluber will likely again be on a pitch count. But I'm confident that whatever we get from him, will have the team in position to win. This is a pitcher w/ a 224-38 KW ratio this year & a 1.04 WHIP.

Another positive here is that Kluber has dominated the Twins in the past.  He faced them twice last month and held them to just two runs and four hits in B2B complete game efforts (17-2 KW).  Overall, he's 4-0 w/ a 1.70 ERA his L5 starts against them. Minnesota is a club that has defied the odds for most of the season. They are inferior to Cleveland in terms of run differential, plus they've had just one winning month all season (May)! They turn to Phil Hughes Wednesday night, not by choice, but out of necessity as Tommy Milone is out w/ a "tired shoulder."  Hughes has a 10.03 ERA and 2.057 WHIP his L3 starts, all losses, and his worst start of the season came against the Indians back on August 9th (7 runs allowed in three innings).  10* Cleveland

8* Kansas City (8:10 ET): Without question, the Royals have take a step backwards in September. Whether it's complacency or something else, the end result has been a 7-13 record this month, including an ugly-looking 11-2 loss yday to Seattle here at home. KC does avoid Felix Hernandez in this series though, so even though the Mariners have gone a surprising 13-6 in September (AL's best record), the home team can still come back to take this series. It starts tonight w/ Yordano Ventura, who has allowed 2 ER or fewer in six of his last eight starts, a stretch where his team start record is 7-1. Assuming the Royals have cured their bullpen woes, they should bounce back tonight w/ a win.

Seattle, despite this relatively strong stretch, has endured a really disappointing 2015.  The problem is roster construction as this is most certainly an example of "stars and scrubs," meaning you have a few big-time players, but they are complimented by sub-replacement level talent. There's also something interesting to note w/ the starting rotation. The three righties - Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma (pitched last night) and Taijuan Walker have a combined TSR of 47-30. When anyone else is on the hill, the team's record is a woeful 27-47.  Tonight, it will be Roenis Elias, who was actually effective his last time out, allowing two runs but only giving up one hit (three walks). But he has a 6.46 ERA in three career starts vs. the Royals, one of which was earlier this season and saw him get hammered for seven runs in just 3 2/3 innings.

The big news w/ Kansas City is that they will be changing closers as the embattled Greg Holland is out and Wade Davis is in.  The bullpen was one of the real driving forces behind LY's World Series Run.  Of course, for any of that to matter, they'll need a solid outing from Ventura, who given recent results should deliver. He also has a 2.84 ERA in three career starts vs. Seattle. Davis is a good choice to be the new closer as he's converted 13 of 14 save opportunities this year and is 7-1 w/ a 0.88 ERA.  The Royals remain one of the best home teams in baseball (48-28 record) and the Mariners are a pretty pathetic 27-46 off a win.  8* Kansas City

8* Houston (2:10 ET):  I'm 2-0 in this series thus far. Monday, it was the Astros in a relatively easy 6-3 victory (led 4-0 after three innings) behind Dallas Keuchel, who never loses at home. Tuesday, I played the Angels on the run line and truth be told, I should have taken them on the money line as they came through w/ an "outright" 4-3 victory (led throughout). So this is where we stand after two games. Houston still has a 2.5 game lead over the Angels in the Wild Card chase, but Minnesota now is just two games back (they won yday). For Wednesday afternoon's series finale, I'm back on the home team as not only is their advantage (yday notwithstanding) very real here at Minute Maid Park, but they're better in day games.

Rookie Lance McCullers gave up two home runs in the first inning yday, back to back to Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, which gave the Halos a quick lead they would never relinquish. The pitching matchup has been a major determining factor in my plays in this series and today I'm backing Michael Fiers for Houston, who of course threw a no-hitter earlier this year. Like many of the Astros' other starters, Fiers has been markedly better here at home. He's posted a 0.89 ERA in three starts here at Minute Maid Park, including the no-no, since coming over from Milwaukee. Of course, the team still owns the American League's best home record (51-26) despite last night's setback. Against the Angels on Sept 13, Fiers was very good, allowing just three runs in 7 IP (8-0 KW ratio) and that was on the road.

He'll be opposed this afternoon by Nick Tropeano, who hasn't been very good this season, especially of late. Over the L3 starts, his ERA is 7.25 and his WHIP, 1.830.  That's not good, nor is the fact he's failed to go longer than five innings in any of those starts. His only quality start came all the way back in April.  Also cause for concern is the Angels' road record, which is a very poor 33-43 this season. I was willing to look past that Tuesday, but not here.  I mentioned earlier that the Astros have been better in day games this year and they have, 26-21 vs. 17-21. They are also 6-2 this year vs. the Angels at home.  8* Houston

8* Run Line LA Angels (8:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Angels +1.5.  Last night, I cashed the Astros in an easy 6-3 victory, but that was w/ ace Dallas Keuchel on the mound. Keuchel is unbeaten at home this year, so it was a relatively easy call, but the prognosis for Houston in this series is a little murkier moving forward. Despite three straight victories coming into tonight, there can be no denying that the young Astros have faded somewhat down the stretch as they no longer lead the AL West and there are three teams within 4.5 games of them for the final Wild Card spot, the Angels among them. Many numbers suggest Houston should be in a better position, but they're only 19-27 in one-run games this season and I don't see the road team doing any worse than a one-run loss here.

With Keuchel out of the way, the Angels can easily still take this series. Granted, they have been a terrible road team since the All-Star Break and are 1-12 as a road dog of +125 to +150 on the money line this year.  But all this talent should be translating into more victories, no?  While Houston is among MLB's most formidable home teams, they are only 27-29 vs. lefties this season and tonight sees the Halos send southpaw Hector Santiago to the mound.  Santiago accounted quite well for himself against the Astros on September 12th, allowing just two runs and five hits in seven solid innings. The Angels wound up winning that game 3-2 as +115 ML dogs at home. Despite three no decisions, Santiago has posted a 1.40 ERA vs. Houston this year as he's allowed just eight hits in 19 1/3 IP!  Through 18 starts this year, Santiago actually had a 2.30 ERA, so he's certainly capable of pitching well in this spot. 

Santiago opposed Lance McCullers on 9.12 and the two will face off again here. McCullers, like Keuchel, is much stronger at home, but lately hasn't gotten much run support and that's resulted in an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. Typically, I might make the argument that McCullers' peripherals indicate a turnaround is near, but his walk rate (11 BB's in L24 IP) has become cause for concern. Good value w/ the run line tonight. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

9* Run Line Atlanta (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5.  I tried playing this particular matchup the same way Monday, but unfortunately for me Atlanta "forgot to score" as Shelby Miller's miserable and unfortunate 2015 campaign continued. Really, on paper, it was a great spot to ambush the Mets as they were coming off a horrible loss Sunday night to the Yankees. Nevertheless, I'll come back w/ the Braves on the RL tonight as this time it's Matt Wisler's (0-7 TSR L7 starts) to try and snap a long losing skid. Again, prior to a Mets' sweep in the last series between these two clubs, they'd split the first 12 head to head matchups of the season. I don't see the road team doing any worse than a one-run loss here.

Wisler has not exactly pitched well of late and troubling is his last two starts on the road. But he did look good, even in defeat, against these Mets back on September 11th where he allowed just two runs in six innings of work. As mentioned earlier, the Braves have lost each of Wisler's last seven starts. But I think his performances this year against the Mets overrides that. In addition to the quality outing earlier this month, Wisler won his big league debut at the expense of the Mets, back on June 19th as he allowed just one run in eight innings.  It's easy to forget now, but after seven starts Wisler was 5-1.  His ERA in the two starts vs. New York is 1.93.

With a sizable lead in the division, I think the Mets could be prone to some letdowns down the stretch. This could very well be one of those spots. Because of all the controversy surrounding innings limits with a young rotation, Logan Verrett will be making a spot start Tuesday in place of Jacob de Grom's turn. Verrett's made two such appearances previously and both went quite well actually, however, they came against Miami and Colorado. I suppose you could point out that Atlanta is the weakest opponent of the three, and maybe you'd be right. But the Mets' offense has begun to show signs of slipping in recent days (2.6 rpg w/ .217 BA L7 games) and they are just 5-7 this season coming off a shutout win. 9* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

10* Detroit (7:08 ET):  The Tigers suffered the embarrassment of being swept in a day-night doubleheader Monday, at home no less, but I have them bouncing back Tuesday against a White Sox club that is hardly world-beating. Only seven runs total were scored in yday's twinbill, five of them from the Chicago side as they prevailed 2-0 and 3-2. Detroit's lineup has largely been "feast or famine" throughout 2015 while the White Sox has been just plain bad and lately the Southsiders have batted a collective .218 at the plate (last 7 games). I don't see any reason why the White Sox, unless Chris Sale is pitching, should be a money line favorite on the road at this point, so go w/ the undervalued team at home.

Tigers' starter Daniel Norris has a 4.40 ERA his L3 starts, which on the surface doesn't look too good, but as a 1.047 WHIP over that same timeframe shows, there's some bad fortune in that.  Last Wednesday marked the southpaw's first start in nearly a month and he gave up just one hit, a solo home run, in 3 2/3 IP.  He struck out four and didn't walk anybody in what turned out to be a 7-4 win at Minnesota.  In fact, the team has won each of those L3 starts, all as underdogs on the money line of +145 or higher. Overall, his TSR is 4-1 since coming over from Toronto in the David Price trade. Yes, he'll be working on the dreaded pitch count Tuesday, but he should still be able to put his team in a position to win here.

Obviously, Detroit's offense will need to be better than it was Monday when they managed only seven hits total in the two games. But thankfully, the White Sox weren't much better (only 13 hits) and they have a losing record this season off a win. Lack of run support has plagued starter Jose Quintana all year and that's a major reason why his team start record is only 14-16 for the year. However, lack of run support hasn't been the issue when facing the Tigers as Quintana is 0-2 against them in 2015 w/ a 6.95 ERA in four outings. Early in the year, here at Comerica Park, he allowed nine runs on 10 hits in just four innings of work. The Tigers are a solid 20-15 vs LH starters this year, including 3-1 vs. Quintana. 10* Detroit

8* Over Sparks/Lynx (9:05 ET):  I successfully played LA in Game 2 as they took care of business at home, winning 81-71 as a slight favorite. In the analysis, I made my case why I think the Sparks are a much better team than their record (were w/o Candace Parker first half of season) and could possibly be undervalued in the series. However, for tonight's deciding Game 3, I'll be forsaking the side and instead making a play on the total. Prior to Game 2, four of the five matchups (Game 1 included) between these two had stayed Under the total.  But the teams combined for 152 points on Sunday, despite average shooting on both sides, so I'm pretty confident that we'll be seeing another Over Tuesday night.

The key to Minnesota's home success (14-4 SU) has been the fact they allow just 68.6 points per game.  They were even below that in the Game 1 victory (67-65) and it is troubling that Los Angeles has been held to 66 pts or fewer in each of its last four road games. But, for the season, they do average 71.7 PPG away from home. Tonight's total would be on the low end of the spectrum for them as looking at all games YTD, there's been only one O/U line since July 1st that's been lower and that was a September 3rd matchup w/ Washington that flew past the number by more than 40 points! Early in the season, back in June, scoring league-wide was down. So there were actually six O/U lines lower than this one that month, but the Sparks went 4-2 Over in those games.

This total is also on the low end of the spectrum for the Lynx.  In fact, depending on your closing O/U lines, there really isn't one any lower all season.  They average 76.8 PPG at home and should be able to take advantage of a Sparks' defense which is allowing 75.9 PPG on the road.  When looking at season averages, whether overall, or the Lynx at home and the Sparks on the road, they all add up to (slightly) going Over this total.  The potential loss of Nneka Ogwumike will hurt the Sparks, but w/ Parker (20.5 PPG in the series) leading the way, they'll still score their "fair share."  On the Minnesota end, Maya Moore has been fantastic (50% shooting) and should get more help from her supporting cast tonight. 8* Over Sparks/Lynx

10* Under Jets/Colts (8:30 ET): The Colts were held to only 14 points (shut out 1st half) in a surprising loss to the Bills this week and I think this matchup w/ the Jets presents a lot of the same problems for them. They will be going up against yet another stout front seven, so while the expectation will be for Andrew Luck (14-1 SU/ATS off a loss in his career) to bounce back, I think Indy could struggle yet again offensively.  As for the Jets, I wouldn't look for them to come close to matching the 31 points they scored last week against the Browns as that was somewhat of a byproduct of five Cleveland turnovers. What I look for instead is a pretty low-scoring, defensive-minded, matchup on Monday night.  Take the Under.

This would be a pretty high total for the Jets.  The highest closing total for any of their games in 2014 was 47, which happened a total of three times. The Under was 2-1 in those three games w/ the Jets averaging only 17.6 points per game.  In Week 1, three of the Jets' four TD drives were 30 yards or less, thanks to being set up by multiple Browns' turnovers.  It's unlikely that the enjoy such great fortune in B2B weeks. If they do find offensive success, it will come via running the ball (179 yds LW), but that likely means less explosive plays and the clock will be running.  From the Jets perspective, I think this total represents an overadjustment by the oddsmakers following a surprising Over in Week 1.

As for the Colts offense, they will likely struggle to run the ball again against a Jets' defensive front that is as good as any in the league.  Against Buffalo, Indy ran for just 64 yards and while some of that was falling behind, they averaged less than four yards per carry. The new acquisitions, WR Andre Johnson and RB Frank Gore, did next to nothing last week for the Colts, who were held scoreless in the first half. Turnovers were a problem as well with three. Seeing as the Jets forced five TO's last week, this doesn't exactly seem like an ideal matchup for the Colts' offense to get back on track.  The Jets held Cleveland to just 104 yds on the ground and that number is somewhat misleading in the sense that the Browns' leading rusher was actually QB Johnny Manziel w/ 35 yds.   10* Under Jets/Colts

6* Houston (8:10 ET):  The young Astros have faded badly down the stretch, giving up first place to the Rangers in the AL West. But they rebounded w/ B2B wins against Oakland over the weekend and now return home where they'll send ace Dallas Keuchel to the mound. Keuchel at home has been as automatic a bet as there is in MLB this year as he is a ridiculous 13-0 here (14-2 TSR) at Minute Maid Park w/ a 1.49 ERA and 0.907 WHIP. Coming off a disastrous outing LW vs. Texas (easily his worst of the season), Keuchel will bounce back here against an Angels team he's pitched well against in all three starts this season. Los Angeles, still in Wild Card contention (2.5 games back of Houston), is off an 8-1 loss Sunday.

Houston should be in a much safer position than it is when it comes to the playoffs. They have, by far, the division's best run differential (+92) and in fact are the only team "in the black" in that department. Among all AL teams, only Toronto has outscored its foes by a wider margin.  The road has been unkind to the Astros this year (just 29-46), but they are an AL-best 50-25 at home, a record which Keuchel has a lot to do with.  His last two starts have both come on the road, including one vs. these Angels where three unearned runs doomed him and the team in a 3-2 loss. Prior to the disaster Wednesday in Texas, Keuchel had allowed 3 ER or fewer in eight straight starts. All but one of his home starts this season have been quality.

Homefield advantage is huge here, not just because of the Astros and Keuchel's track record, but also due to the fact that Angels' starter Jered Weaver has a 6.21 ERA in his 13 road starts this year, including a 1-6 mark w/ a 7.40 ERA his L7.  The Angels are 1-5 this year here in Houston after being swept in their last visit, back in late July.  The Halos aren't a good road team to begin with (32-42), so look for Keuchel to bounce back as the Astros continue their attempt to chase down the Rangers in the division.  I believe far more in Houston than I do LA for this stretch run.  6* Houston

8* Indiana (8:05 ET): The Fever finally got their long-awaited win over the Sky on Saturday, winning 89-82 as 3.5-pt favorites, forcing this winner-take-all Game 3 in Chicago. As a five-point dog (I had them), they pushed in Game 1 here in the Windy City, but actually led that game outright in the fourth quarter after falling behind by as many as nine points in the first half. This all sets up a huge revenge spot for Indiana, not just because of the 0-4  SU regular season record vs. Chicago, but also because of LY Eastern Conference Final where the Sky won a deciding Game 3 in Indiana by 13 points. The Fever, the top seed at the time, I'm sure haven't forgotten and I expect a very close game throughout tonight. Take the points.

The big story in this series is that league MVP and leading scorer Elena Delle Donne has been held in check. After averaging 23.4 points per game during the regular season, she has TOTALED only 25 in the two games in the series on 8 of 24 shooting. She scored only two points in the first half of Game 1 and then Sunday, she finished w/ only 11 points (none in fourth quarter). Despite that, the Sky still somehow managed to score 82 pts in Game 2.  But offense has never really been an issue for this team all year. However, defense is another story. Their 78.8 points per game allowed ranked 11th during the regular season and is the driving force behind them being only 16-19 ATS for the year (8-9 ATS at home). Playing on just one day's rest, they are 5-11 ATS this year.

Indiana shot almost 60 percent from the floor in the second half of Game 2.  While they're unlikely to match that tonight, on the road, note Game 1 was only a one-point game w/ under three minutes to go when they didn't shoot nearly as well.  The Fever have been the better team in this series, in my opinion, and were in not for the regular season struggles against the Sky, would be getting more respect from the linesmakers. One area you can expect the Fever to improve in for Game 3 is three-point shooting.  They led the league in that department during the regular season, but were a woeful 1 for 16 from behind the arc (still won!) in Game 2.  8* Indiana

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET):  The Rays treated me well yday, coming from behind to defeat the Orioles 7-6, so I'll come right back w/ them here against an inferior opponent as they send ace Chris Archer to the hill.  As I discussed in yesterday's analysis, Tampa Bay probably should have a better record. They are #2 (Houston) in the American League in run prevention and have a respectable road record.  That should serve them well tonight against a Red Sox team that's simply playing out the string. I suppose you could point toward the fact there's just a half game difference between these two clubs (similar run differentials as well), but Boston has been in last place all year and they lost to Archer earlier this month.

Archer is off a hard-luck loss his last time out as he gave up only two runs and four hits against the Yankees, but the offense didn't do much & the end result was a 3-1 defeat.  Archer did walk four batters, but the good news is that the team hasn't dropped B2B Archer starts in the second half.  Of course, that's because they've actually alternated wins and losses his last eight trips to the mound. But w/ a 3.00 ERA and 1.74 WHIP, he deserves far better than a 17-14 TSR this year. He's allowed 1 ER or less in 15 of his 31 starts, including two of this last three on the road.  Against the Red Sox on Sept 11, Archer allowed only three runs on five hits (5 IP) in an 8-4 Rays win. Wins over Boston have been hard to come by for him throughout his career, but he's too good of a pitcher for that to continue.

Boston counters w/ Eduardo Rodriguez. If you look solely at ERA, then you'd conclude Rodriguez has had an impressive last three starts (1.56), but his WHIP is nearly identical (1.558), which is not a good sign at all.  Getting away w/ allowing only four runs during that time is pretty remarkable considering the # of baserunners (27).  Rodriguez did not pitch in the last series vs. Tampa Bay and the lineup he'll face here is coming off a game where they had 14 hits and 33 total the L3 games.  Boston, off B2B surprising wins over first place Toronto on the road, is just 29-41 off a win this year. The Rays are 26-19 vs. LH starters in 2015.  10* Tampa Bay

9* Run Line Atlanta (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5.  This is not a good spot for the Mets. They lost Sunday night, 11-2 to the Yankees, but one must dig deeper to uncover the magnitude of that loss. They led 1-0 after five innings, which is when Matt Harvey was pulled. From there, the bullpen completely imploded, giving up all 11 runs in a spectacularly bad performance (Mets fans have to be thinking "thanks Scott Boras!").  Harvey had allowed just one hit, an infield one, and had a 7-1 KW ratio w/ only 77 pitches thrown. But the "plan was the plan" and it backfired. I think this issue is going to be a major distraction down the stretch for this club & they are ripe to be upset Monday night.

Atlanta is not a good team; they are probably the second worst in all of baseball. But they just swept the presumed worst (Philadelphia) at home over the weekend, winning every game 2-1.  The offense has not done much the last six games (just 10 runs scored), but that's where the run line comes in handy. Also, the Braves did pull an upset of the Blue Jays (won by 1 run), in the opener of that series last week. Pitching tonight will be Shelby Miller, one of the most hard-luck pitchers in recent history.  An All-Star, Miller hasn't won in 22 consecutive starts, which is beyond unfathomable, especially considering a 3.05 ERA that was even lower before he got roughed up by the Blue Jays (MLB's best offense) his last time out. Perhaps the winless streak is getting to him, but the bottom line is I expect Miller to pitch well tonight. He's allowed just 3 ER in both starts vs. the Mets this season, including a 5-3 win here at Citi Field back in June.

This is also a revenge spot for the Braves, who were swept at home by the Mets earlier in this month. My view is that it's very hard to continue beating the same opponent, game after game.  Sure enough, the teams head to head record was an even 6-6 this season before that sweep transpired.  Jon Niese, likely the "odd man out" in the Mets' playoff rotation, will pitch on six days rest here. That sounds good in theory, but he has struggled of late w/ 5+ ER allowed in four consecutive starts before a win over the Braves his last time out. Miller is long overdue for a win and this is a bad spot for the Mets.  Atlanta does no worse than a one-run loss here. 9* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

8* NY Mets (8:05 ET):  Matt Harvey Day has taken on even more significance down this stretch run as the Mets are closely monitoring his innings pitched.  Despite this, I really like his chances tonight, pitching at home against the Yankees.  This will be his first start in exactly two weeks. Perhaps he needed that time off, given the controversy surrounding his playoff status and the fact he was hit hard his last time out, giving up seven runs in a game where the Mets ended up making a miracle comeback against the Nationals.  At this price, Harvey seems like a real bargain as he's been a ML favorite of -165 or higher each of his previous six outings. He's been great at Citi Field all year w/ a 2.56 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in 15 starts (11-4 TSR).

Meanwhile, despite some recent positive returns, I still wouldn't trust Yankees starter CC Sabathia.  He has a WHIP that's nearly as high as his ERA the L3 starts and that's never a good sign.  Allowing four hits or less in each of those starts is a good sign, but he's also issued a total of nine walks and those 20 baserunners allowed becomes a lot less impressive when you realize it's come over a total of only 14 innings.  For the season, the hefty lefty's numbers remain subpar.  Early in the year, starting opposite Harvey, Sabathia allowed 7 ER in just five innings and that was at home.  The Mets are 19-14 vs. LH starters this year.  We spoke of Harvey's home dominance earlier, well, the team is also 47-27 for the year at Citi Field. That includes an excellent 10-4 mark as a ML favorite in the -150 to -175 range.

The Yankees pulled off a shutout yday, winning 5-0, surprisingly only the third time they've blanked an opponent all season. They'd dropped 7 of 10 previously and have not beaten the same opponent consecutively since B2B wins over last place Boston at the start of September. Harvey came just an out shy of a complete game victory his first start against the Yankees this year and remember that the Mets offense is a lot better now than it was back in April.   Also, the team has won 9 of 12 overall.  They've suffered B2B losses just one time (earlier this week vs. Miami) in September and are a ridiculous 69-26 as a favorite this year. 8* NY Mets

10* Pittsburgh (4:05 ET): The Pirates picked up a crucial win last night here in LA, doing so as big +170 underdogs at the expense of Clayton Kershaw. What made the win even more important than usual is that the Cubs won (again) earlier in the day and would have pulled into a tie w/ the Bucs as the two battle for homefield advantage in a likely NL Wild Card matchup.  Now that they got the win, in low-scoring fashion no less, I think they're in good shape for Sunday's finale as they send their best pitcher to the hill, that being Gerrit Cole. Earning a split against Kershaw and Zack Greinke is about as good as a team can hope for right now. The Dodgers actually have a losing record this year when they don't have one of those two Cy Young candidates on the mound. 

Cole likely won't get much, if any, Cy Young consideration. But that doesn't mean he's not having an outstanding year. He comes into today sporting a 20-9 team start record w/ a 2.65 ERA and 1.118 WHIP.  He's allowed just one home run in his last nine starts, a span of 54+ innings, and just two over his L95+ IP on the road.  The last time he faced the Dodgers, he was going opposite Kershaw and came away the 5-4 victor despite not necessarily having his best stuff.  With manager Clint Hurdle managing his starting rotation a little differently down the stretch, this will be only Cole's second start in the last 14 days. Last time out, he finished w/ an 8-0 KW ratio and the team beat the Cubs, which is no small order these days. In his start previous to that, at St. Louis, Cole was even better w/ seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball. In the month of September, Cole is now 9-2 all-time w/ a 3.05 ERA. 

Pittsburgh has taken four of five from the Dodgers this year, losing on Friday to Greinke.  They are 9-3 against them since the start of 2014.  With Greinke and Kershaw's turns in the rotation having passed, it will be Mike Bolsinger getting the baseball on Sunday. While he's unbeaten since rejoining the rotation earlier this month, that's misleading as his ERA in those two starts is 6.23.  He lasted all of 3 2/3 innings last Saturday at Arizona.  He has a 1.902 WHIP his L3 starts overall.  10* Pittsburgh

8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET):  This will be the first, but probably not the last, time I ask you to "hold your nose" and take the Jaguars plus the points this season.  Granted, the returns have been pretty dreadful the last two seasons (not necessarily me playing them, but rather in general). But here we have a good value on the Jags, who are at home, facing a Dolphins team that the public is backing significantly for a second week in a row despite a somewhat undeserved cover in Week 1. It took a special teams (punt return) touchdown for Miami to beat Washington last week, 17-10 as four-point favorites, and that kind of play simply cannot be counted on week to week. With the line being bet up, I say take the points.

There was not a ton of offense in either teams' game last week. Jacksonville gained just 265 total yards, but actually finished with the slightest of edges against Carolina, who gained 263. Miami had even fewer total yards than Jacksonville (256) and was outgained rather significantly by Washington (allowed 349).  In both cases, the game swung on a non-offensive TD.  I already mentioned the punt return that won the game for the Dolphins, but unfortunately for the Jaguars in their game, it was a Blake Bortles' pick-six that sunk their fortunes. One thing that should be pointed out is that prior to last week, Miami had been a road favorite of more than a field goal just two times in the last two seasons. So there is some substantial value in playing against the line move here.

There's really not a ton more to say here.  Bortles just has to be better for the Jags to stay in this game. These teams met last year and two Bortles' pick-sixes were the difference in a 27-13 Miami win.  Jacksonville was coming off its first win of the season in that game and at one point actually had a 199-4 edge in total yards! You read that correctly. Perhaps an unusually late kickoff at home could help Bortles? There were more mistakes last week by Jacksonville, including a fumble in the red zone (not by Bortles), several drops and going 3 for 12 on third down.  The good news is those types of things can be corrected.  Look for the Jags to sneak within the number in this one. 8* Jacksonville

8* Los Angeles (3:05 ET):  The underdog Sparks came up just short in their Game 1 upset bit, losing 67-65, but covering the 5.5-pt spread. Back at home and facing elimination, they now a slight favorite for Game 2. While this may surprise you a bit, given the opponent, remember LA has been a much better team in the second half of the season since the return of Candace Parker. They opened the year 3-14 SU, but have since gone 11-7 SU L18 and that actually includes three straight losses coming into today. They dropped their final two (meaningless) regular season games, both on the road, but have won three straight at home including two games where they topped 90 pts & another where they allowed just 52. Lay the points.

Minnesota may be the top seed, but they have struggled mightily at the betting window, covering just three of their last 13 games overall.  That includes a 1-5 ATS record on the road and they won just two of those games straight up, one of them by two points.  In Minnesota, the Sparks led Game 1 at the half.  It took all 33 points from Maya Moore, a career playoff high for her, for the Lynx to come back. Meanwhile, Parker scored only 16 points for LA, on 5 of 16 shooting.  You have to expect that Moore won't be quite as good here Sunday while Parker's play is destined to improve. Something I do need to mention is that this game is actually taking place at Long Beach State, and not the Staples Center, due to the Emmy Awards. The Sparks have played here before however; it shouldn't be any less of an advantage.

These teams have now met five times this season w/ the Lynx winning four. But two of those came early in the campaign when LA was w/o Parker. Here in Los Angeles, the Sparks did defeat them by 22, the only time they got to play host with a fully healthy roster. Minnesota is being outscored on a per game basis this season on the road, so the Sparks should at least be laying the token three points from homecourt advantage.  The Lynx are not as dominant this year as they've been in past seasons, which should be obvious by their poor ATS record. If you were wondering, they were blown out (lost by double digits) the only time they were a dog in the regular season. 8* Los Angeles

10* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): It was a low-scoring game at the Trop Saturday afternoon w/ Baltimore prevailing 2-1. Each team scored once in the first inning; the difference wound up being the O's stringing together a couple hits in the top of the sixth.  Both of these teams came into this series w/ fleeting playoff hopes and as it stands right now, the Orioles have been the ones improving their chances by taking two of three.  But the Rays will send out Jake Odorizzi for Sunday's finale.  He has a 0.964 WHIP his L3 starts and is deserving of far better than a 12-13 team start record for the year. Meanwhile, counterpart Kevin Gausman has not gotten the job done on the road, going 0-5 in seven starts w/ a 6.23 ERA & 1.461 WHIP. 

Tampa Bay is a team that probably should have a better record. They're second among American League teams in run prevention, trailing only Houston. Odorizzi has had a big hand in that, though you wouldn't know it simply by looking at record.  His last time out resulted in a win, however, 6-3 over the Yankees as he allowed three runs (on just three hits). While he did walk three batters and give up two home runs, both were unusually high marks for him. Two starts ago, Odorizzi threw six scoreless innings in an 8-0 win at Detroit. He's certainly handled his business against Baltimore this year as well; going 2-0 in two starts w/ a 2.84 ERA. In the lone home start, he threw 6 2/3 innings of scoreless, two-hit ball.

Baltimore is probably also deserving of a better record, given a positive run differential. But they've faltered down the stretch and only one team can win here. Starting Gausman on the road, if history is any indication, certainly doesn't give the O's much of a shot.  His last start against Tampa Bay (at home) didn't go much better w/ him lasting all of 2 1/3 innings and allowing four runs and eight hits, two of them home runs. Since then, Gausman has delivered B2B quality outings against division opponents, but one warning sign is that he issued four walks his last tine out.  While Tampa Bay may have a losing record, Baltimore is just 29-45 on the road. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Montreal (1:00 ET):  The Als are off a bye here and couldn't have asked for a better opponent to welcome in as Winnipeg just might be the worst team in the league. (Yes, I'm even including 1-10 Saskatchewan in that discussion). Both teams here have just four wins to their credit, but the respective point differentials illustrate just how phony a team's won-loss record can be as 4-6 Montreal has actually outscored its opponents (by 11 pts) this year while the Bombers are a woeful -108 in terms of points scored vs. allowed (league worst). Montreal actually has a couple of great wins to its credit, beating Calgary here at home and Hamilton on the road. But they did lose to the Bombers (in Winnipeg), making this a revenge spot. I'll lay the points.

When Montreal won at Tim Horton's Stadium on August 27th, they became the first road team to beat Hamilton there - ever! (Stadium opened last year).  Unfortunately, the Als then followed that up w/ a 23-13 outright loss at home to B.C. (six turnovers), a team they'd just beaten on the road two weeks prior. Teams off the bye week have performed quite well, however. Last week, it was Ottawa (as a 3-pt dog) winning at B.C. That improved the record of teams coming off a bye week to 8-3 ATS this year.  When the Als were off their first bye of the season, they failed to win straight up, but still left Calgary w/ the cash, covering as five-point dogs in a three-point loss.  This time, they are at home and facing a bad team, one that is off a rare win and 1-4 SU on the road, getting outscored by 14.8 points per game.

  In the CFL's "crossover" era, the East Division rarely sweeps both spots (top two finishers in each division guaranteed playoff spot, followed by next two best records, regardless of division).  Don't rule that out happening this year. That will keep Montreal motivated down the stretch and in fact the winner of this game will be in position to capture that second "crossover" spot. Home teams are winning at a higher rate than usual in the CFL this year, a kind of success that has eluded the Als so far (just 2-3 SU at home) despite holding opponents to just 16.8 PPG here at Molson.  The best news of all for Montreal in this game is that they will be getting their starting QB, Jonathan Crompton, back (out since Wk 1).  Meanwhile, Winnipeg is still w/o its starting QB (Drew Willy) and its top receiver. 10* Montreal

10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): While I'm a bit leery that I'm overreacting to the Titans' shocking Week 1 performance here, this play is more about the Browns and how awful they are. I'm not just talking about the ugly new uniforms either. My top 'Under' bet coming into the year was Cleveland Under 6.5 wins and I truly believe that this has the chance to be the worst outfit in football, in more ways that one.  The "Josh McCown era," a bad idea to begin with, didn't even last a quarter as he got injured, leaving the woefully unprepared Johnny Manziel to come on in relief. To the shock of no one, Johnny Football turned the ball over three times in an eventual 31-10 loss to the Jets. Cleveland has won only one season opener since returning to the league in '99.

Now, not getting points anymore w/ Tennessee may be a bit troublesome on the value side of things, but the bottom line is that I didn't expect to need them anyway.  Besides, the Browns are a pretty woeful 4-9 SU/4-8-1 ATS the last three years in games where the line is a field goal or less, anyway.  The reviews are all positive on Titans' QB Marcus Mariota after Week 1 as he clearly outplayed rookie counterpart Jameis Winston in a 42-14 road win over the Bucs. Having lost 14 of their final 15 games a year ago, some positive things are due to start going Tennessee's way.  Mariota completed 13 of 16 passes, four of them going for touchdowns, last week. This week, I expect RB Bishop Sankey to have a big day against a porous Cleveland run defense that gave up 154 yards to the Jets in Week 1.

Manziel, himself a former 1st round pick, has been nothing short of disastrous in his limited regular season appearances. Incredibly, he failed to complete 8 of 11 passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage last week. It was not a good sign that he was the team's leading rusher either (just 35 yards). In two starts last year, he completed only 50 percent of his 26 pass attempts. The Browns are as bereft of playmakers as any team in this league and the coaching staff, for whatever reason, seems unwilling to "open the playbook" for Manziel.  Perhaps, it's because they know he's terrible.  This is also a revenge spot for the Titans, who shockingly blew a 28-3 lead at home to the Browns last year (lost 29-28). 10* Tennessee

8* Chicago (1:00 ET):  New Bears HC John Fox lost his home debut last week, but there is no shame in that as the opponent was Green Bay and his team showed a lot of fight, particularly in jumping out to a 13-10 halftime lead (Forte = 105 yds rushing). Now I did have Chicago plus the points in that one and while they failed to cover, they missed the spread by only one point and that was facing Aaron Rodgers. It's a pretty significant drop in class for their next home game to Arizona, who has the added disadvantage of an early start time. While the Bears actually had the edge in total yardage in defeat (402-322) in Week 1, the Cardinals only had a slight edge (427-408) in their 31-19 victory over the Saints. Take the points here.

Arizona benefited from New Orleans failing to score in three of four red zone opportunities a week ago.  I don't think I'm alone in thinking this team will regress from LY's 11-5 finish. Cardinals' fans will argue that QB Carson Palmer being back makes them a stronger team, but as we saw in Week 1, the defense may end up really missing Todd Bowles. Plus, RB Andre Ellington is out for Week 2.  It was a closer game than the final score indicated vs. the Saints as a late TD made it a two-score game. I really have to wonder how much longer this Cardinals' "magic" can continue as since the start of the 2013 season, they are a ridiculous 22-11 at the betting window, including 11-3 ATS in games where the line is a field goal or less.

Fox is likely to improve the Bears this year as they can't really be any worse than they were a year ago, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. I though that unit did as good as job as could have been reasonably expected LW vs. Green Bay, holding that offense under 325 total yards.   I know that WR Alshon Jeffrey did not practice Friday and that would be a big blow to the offense.  But I like the idea of feeding Forte better anyway as that will limit the number of times QB Jay Cutler can make a mistake. The Bears have been a big disappointment at home for two years now (4-12-1 ATS) and in many ways, they're the opposite of Arizona as in "due" for better luck. 8* Chicago

10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Honestly, I cannot believe that this line is still under a touchdown, given the Steelers need to bounce back as well how bad we all thought San Francisco would be prior to the start of the season.  Sure, I had San Francisco last week. But that was at home, in a unique time slot, against an opponent that came in clearly overvalued by much of the public. We were also able to take advantage of a giant line swing in the Niners' favor in Week 1.  Here, I think we have a clear overreaction to a nationally televised win that was a surprise to most.  We also have an early start time (10 AM local) for the West Coast visitors. Though they needed a late score just to 'push' vs. NE in the season opener, Pittsburgh had no problem moving the ball in that game.  I have them winning big here. Lay the points.

Versus the Patriots last Thursday, the Steelers finished w/ a pretty big edge in total yardage (464-361) and that wasn't all a byproduct of garbage time either. Their first six drives all consisted of six plays or longer, yet the end result was only 14 points.  There were four drives of seven plays of longer resulting in just a FG attempt and two were missed. The absence of Le'veon Bell was not felt as his replacement, DeAngelo Williams, ran for 127 yards on nine carries. WR Antonio Brown has nine catches for 133 yards. I don't anticipate the Steelers' offense having any issue moving the ball in this game either; remember that they were one of the best offenses in football a year ago.

It's a short week for San Francisco, made worse by this early start time. Last year, the team ventured into the Eastern Time Zone only once and it was a game (against the Giants) where they were fortunate to finish +4 in turnovers in a 16-10. The 49ers defense stonewalled the Vikings into just 248 total yds, but this is a much more dynamic offense that they'll be facing here and San Francisco is not a team that's built to come from behind. Keep in mind that QB Colin Kaepernick has not thrown a fourth quarter TD pass in 21 games! The team will also be w/o Reggie Bush. Not only is this a short week for the Niners, but it's a long one w/ extra prep time for the home team, which is a huge advantage. HC Mike Tomlin has gone 8-1 SU in home openers. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Over Patriots/Bills (1:00 ET):  Since the start of last season, Buffalo has been the top Under team in the entire NFL, going 3-14 O/U in their 17 games. On the surface, that makes perfect sense as it's a team w/ a great defense and, at least on paper, an anemic offense. They just got done holding Andrew Luck and the Colts to all of 14 points in a shocking opening week win here at home, but now comes an even bigger test, that being Super Bowl Champion New England. While new Bills HC Rex Ryan has had some previous success vs. the Patriots, the bottom line is that since his first season w/ the Jets, the Over has cashed in 9 of 11 games where a Ryan defense has faced a Patriots offense. For New England, this is a very low total.  I'm on the Over.

After a slow start in the season opener, the Pats had no problem moving the ball against Pittsburgh, particularly when targeting matchup nightmare Rob Gronkowski. They made 26 first downs for the game and excluding an end of half situation scored a touchdown on four of six drives at one point before simply choosing to protect a two score lead. Looking at last season, there were only four instances of a Patriots' total being 46 pts or less.  Three of them went Over; the other was the meaningless regular season finale against these Bills (rested starters) where they were "held" to a season-low nine points. I'd pretty much disregard that result right there. In the first matchup w/ Buffalo, the Pats racked up 37 points and nearly 400 yards total offense. This is a team that scored 30+ points in half of its games last season.

This will be a much tougher challenge for Buffalo than Indianapolis was in Week 1, at least defensively.  Gronkowski didn't suit up against them in the second game last year, but still has 9 TD's in seven career matchups. On offense, I think QB Tyrod Taylor surprised a lot of pundits (myself among them) w/ a 14 of 19 day for 195 yards, including a long touchdown pass.  New England's secondary is not close to being what it was a year ago and will be more susceptible to giving up yards in 2015.  Also, the Bills' O/U record is due to start "evening out." The Over is 6-2 the L8 meetings between these two. 10* Over Patriots/Bills

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET):  Well, week one of the Jameis Winston era hardly went "according to script" as the Bucs #1 overall draft choice threw a pick six on his first pass attempt and the team trailed 21-0 almost right out of the gate, at home, to a team that also finished 2-14 last season (Titans). Therefore, it would be easy to write Tampa Bay off here as big dogs going into New Orleans, but this is a division game and points can often be at a premium. Last season, the Bucs covered the spread in both losses to the Saints, falling by only three at home and six here on the road (in overtime).  New Orleans' once invincible home field aura mysteriously went away in 2014 as they lost their last five games here at the Superdome. Take the points.

If you're Tampa Bay, you simply have to "throw out" the Week 1 result and treat this game almost as if it was the season opener. Remember, there are signs pointing up for this team. Winston is an upgrade over what they had at QB last season and a league-worst 1-8 SU record in close games in 2014 (those decided by 7 pts or less) almost certainly is due to progress to the mean. Also remember that last year, the team was off a 42-point loss to Atlanta and came back the following week to stun Pittsburgh on the road. It will certainly help Winston if WR Mike Evans is on the field Sunday. Unlike last week, Evans has been practicing this week. The Bucs' full compliment of receivers is not a bad group. Also, not falling into a huge early hole would also allow RB Doug Martin to get going, something that didn't happen for obvious reasons vs. Tennessee. 

The Saints didn't show me much in Week 1, losing at Arizona by a score of 31-19 as 2.5-pt dogs. Sure, they moved the ball, but that really didn't translate into points as they were just 1 for 4 in the red zone, which to me immediately triggered just how much the offense is going to miss TE Jimmy Graham. Over the last two seasons, New Orleans has gone just 4-8 ATS in division games.  This is a team in transition, one that had to make several difficult personnel choices in the offseason due to the salary cap and they are no longer what they once were.  8* Tampa Bay.

10* UCLA (10:30 ET):  BYU is about as "public" an underdog (something you don't see very often) as it gets this week, following B2B upsets of Nebraska and Boise State, both of which required late-game heroics.  At this point, there can't be a single person that hasn't seen the Hail Mary from backup QB Tanner Mangum to beat Nebraska in the opener. Last week's 35-24 win over Boise State in the home opener was a misleading final as Mangum again connected on a desperation heave (a 35-yd TD pass on 4th down w/ less than 40 seconds remaining) and then a Boise INT was returned for a 50-yard score on the ensuing drive. I hope the Cougars enjoyed those two wins because this week they are in for a reality check against #10 UCLA.

There has been no such drama involved w/ the Bruins' results as they have rolled to 34-16 and 37-0 wins over Virginia and UNLV, respectively.  It does appear as if true freshman QB Josh Rosen is going to be the "real deal" and the defense has been equally impressive in allowing just 1 TD in 27 drives.  Remember that Rosen is one of only THREE new starters on the entire UCLA team, which is expected to be a CFP contender this year. He has done a great job at avoiding sacks, something which plagued predecessor Brett Hundley. I'm sure that the alumni has reminded HC Jim Mora about what happened the last time they faced BYU; that being a 59-0 loss back in 2008.  Needless to say, I expect the "script to be flipped" this time around.  

Let us not forget that BYU QB Mangum is a backup and that starter Taysom Hill was considered to be the most irreplaceable player on the entire roster.  Also, the Cougars are w/o projected starter RB Jamaal Williams, who withdrew from school less than a month before the season got underway. Needless to say, his absence was felt last week as the team ran for a measly 88 yards on 33 carries, a big reason why they found themselves trailing (by 10) entering the fourth quarter. Remember, as "nice" of a story as BYU is right now, they easily could be 0-2 coming into a hostile environment and if that were the case, no one would be giving them a chance.  The odds tell the story in this one. 10* UCLA

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I backed the White Sox yday, thinking that Chris Sale would bounce back from a recent rough stretch and lead his team to victory. That did not happen and the end result was a 12-1 Indians' win. Cleveland still has a legit shot of making the playoffs (just 3 games back in the Wild Card) and I'm "jumping ship" Saturday as they look to continue their postseason push. The Tribe has played somewhat middling baseball of late (just 6-4 L10) and still has a losing home record, mind you, but they are clearly the better ballclub right now and have the added benefit of motivation. I give them the slight pitching edge tonight as well.

Overall, Cleveland has won 15 of its last 22 games, which has them back at .500.  This is a plateau they've hit a few times during the streak, but never been able to get over. Tonight is the time, however. Carlos Carrasco has really struggled against the White Sox this season, including lasting just 2 2/3 innings earlier this month (allowed 4 ER) in his first start back after a trip to the DL.  But he bounced back his last time out, allowing just one run and five hits in six strong innings as they team beat first place Kansas City, 8-3.  Over his L7 starts, Carrasco has allowed 2 ER or fewer six times, the one against the White Sox obviously being the lone exception. He's gone at least six innings in all six of those "good" starts, twice in fact going the distance. 

Carlos Rodon got the win opposite Carrasco back on Sept 8 and will face him again here. Rodon's season is in many ways the opposite of Carrasco's as he's been pretty good against Cleveland, but subpar vs. most everyone else.  He has not pitched in the 10 days since the start vs. the Indians and I wonder if that will affect his performance. He's already reached a career-high in innings pitched for a single season (all previous seasons in minors) while Carrasco should be relatively fresh having thrown just 140 total pitches his L2 starts. Tonight is Cleveland's time to finally climb over the Mendoza Line.  8* Cleveland

6* Run Line Arizona (4:05 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Diamondbacks +1.5.  Yesterday, the visitors needed no help from the RL whatsoever as they shut out the reigning World Series Champs, who its looking increasingly unlikely that they will have a chance to defend their title. San Francisco is 8.5 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West and even further behind the Cubs for the Wild Card.  Therefore, I think they're susceptible to being overvalued down the stretch. They certainly were yday when they attracted more early action than any other team on the board. One player that won't be in the lineup Saturday is 1B Brandon Belt, who w/ a jammed neck.

With the win last night, the D'backs are now 10-7 head to head w/ the Giants. Three of those losses have been by one run and incredibly Arizona is 6-1 this season at AT&T Park. Yesterday, they won as giant +205 underdogs against Madison Bumgarner. That should give them a ton of confidence for the rest of the series. To be able to win on the road, in a game where you have only five hits, is huge.  Today it is the D'backs w/ the pitching edge as they send Pat Corbin out to the hill. Corbin has a 1.96 ERA his L3 starts and that includes delivering six shutout innings vs. these Giants.  His only loss during that stretch was his last time out, by just one run (take note!), and that was opposite Zack Greinke.  Corbin hasn't issued a single walk in those L3 starts.

The Giants counter w/ Mike Leake, who has a 5.30 ERA his L3 starts and that includes a really bad outing opposite Corbin and Arizona on Sept 7. There, he allowed six runs and 11 hits.  I just don't like his chances in this rematch. Also, prior to that start, Leake had been involved in four consecutive games that were all decided by one run. Last time out, he was better, but that was against San Diego.  This price range may also make the RL irrelevant as San Francisco is only 12-14 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 while Arizona is a strong 18-6 as a road dog of +100 to +125.  The visitors do no worse than a one run loss here. 6* Run Line Arizona (+1.5)

8* Indiana (4:00 ET):  It took a little bit of good fortune (as in a late 96-yard INT return), but the Hoosiers were able to escape w/ the win and cover for me last week vs. FIU.  Laying 7.5 points and facing the possibility of a tie game, that INT return was a dramatic swing that capped a tremendous come from behind effort.  Given a missed PAT in the third quarter, it would have been a pretty brutal beat if not for the interception. Remember what I said in last week's analysis regarding IU and how HC Kevin Wilson is in a real "make or break" year in his 5th season in Bloomington. A 4-0 start is probably a necessity in order to grab the first bowl berth of his tenure, so even though WKU also treated me well last week (beat La Tech 41-38), I'm going w/ the Hoosiers again as they seem like a great value at home.

Western Kentucky has now won a pair of close games, starting w/ a 14-12 win at Vanderbilt where they were actually outgained 393-247.  Because of that, I thought they were way undervalued last Thursday at home vs. C-USA rival Louisiana Tech in what was a big revenge spot. Sure enough, the Hilltoppers came through w/ nearly 600 yards of total offense, but on the negative side, they allowed almost 600 as well.  Most concerning about the victory however was the loss of RB Leon Allen, who last season gained 1580 yards.  His absence (out for season) turns WKU into a potentially one-dimensional offense and as good as QB Brandon Doughty may be, he isn't likely to be able to carry his team to a victory on the road over a Power 5 Conference team all by himself.

Again, Wilson is probably out as head coach if Indiana doesn't get to its first bowl game since '07 (only one since '93!).  That means the Hoosiers must win the games they are favored to, plus probably pull an upset or two in Big 10 play.  WKU is just 4-8 ATS the last three seasons on the road and that's crediting them w/ a generous cover in the opener at Vandy.  IU's offense, which has rolled up impressive numbers in each of the first two games (42 points and 517 yards per game) should have no problem moving the ball in this one.  The defense gets a huge break not having to face Allen and that alone could be the difference in this one.  8* Indiana

10* Notre Dame (3:30 ET):  I suppose its easy to understand why a large number of bettors will be fading the Fighting Irish this week as they lost QB Malik Zaire for the season in last week's closer than expected 34-27 win at Virginia.  But that was a game where as per tradition, Notre Dame was overvalued as a favorite, especially coming off such an impressive win over Texas in the opener. But with everyone seemingly "lining up" to go against the Irish this week in South Bend as they host Georgia Tech, I'm going to throw my support behind them as not only are they unfairly priced as a home dog, but I don't share the same respect for Georgia Tech that everyone else seems to have.  Take the points.

Much is being made of Notre Dame's past struggles defending the triple option of Navy, which is of course the same offense Georgia Tech runs. Yellow Jackets HC Paul Johnson did in fact previously serve the same post in Annapolis.  But after having to hear all offseason about how they can't "defend the run," expect the Irish defense to be ready for this test. They weren't healthy LY when facing Navy and this year's squad has nine returning starters back on that side of the ball.  While Texas has its fair share of issues, don't forget that the Notre Dame defense held them to just 163 total yards in the opener and I don't care who the opponent is, anytime you do that versus a Power 5 opponent, it's impressive. Speaking of impressive, Georgia Tech has covered nine straight games dating back to last season. But I'm one of the few that have them regressing this season as last year's team was extraordinarily fortunate on third downs plus there are only five returning offensive starters back for 2015.

In place of the injured Zaire steps DeShone Kizer, who of course threw the game winning TD pass a week ago vs. Virginia. I'm actually not overly concerned w/ any kind of dropoff at the position as Brian Kelly typically does a great job w/ quarterbacks, save for Everett Golson and maybe it says something that Kelly basically let him walk to Tallahassee. Also, RB C.J. Prosise has averaged an impressive 6.3 yards per carry in the two games so far this season.  I'm not putting any stock into GT's two wins thus far as they were two cupcake games, something that just doesn't exist on the Notre Dame schedule.  I think the home team can easily keep pace and possibly even pull the outright upset here. 10* Notre Dame

10* North Texas (2:30 ET):  Here's a conference matchup where the home team isn't getting nearly enough credit.  Perhaps it's because the Mean Green of UNT went just 4-8 at the betting window a season ago (after going 10-3 ATS in '13). But the bottom line is that Dan McCarney's teams have combined to an impressive 16-7 SU at Apogee Stadium his four years here, never once having a losing campaign.  Rice, off the ultimate "backdoor" cover last week at Texas (covered by half point after two late TD's) is ripe to be upset here as I was shocked to learn that they've won 16 of the last 17 times (straight up) they've been favored (including all six times on the road)!  This is a revenge spot for North Texas as well after they blew a halftime lead on the road last year. Take the points.

Now the Mean Green have played only once this year and that was last week when they promptly lost to SMU, 31-13 as six-point underdogs. But as you might have guessed, that was a road game.  Also, if there's one thing I learned by watching SMU against Baylor, it's that the Mustangs are going to be much improved under Chad Morris.  Also, four turnovers did North Texas no favors last Saturday in a game they actually led going into the fourth quarter.  This is a much different team on the road as under McCarney they have won just 5 of 21 away games and three of those wins came in the 2013 breakout season.  Rice had a similar breakout that year, going 10-3 overall, but with just nine returning starters this season, I expect the Owls' win total to decrease for a second consecutive season.  

Earlier I mentioned Rice's shocking results as a favorite, something you wouldn't really expect from a "low-profile" program such as this. The bottom line is that there are some real bottom feeders in Conference USA and the Owls have taken advantage. They also got a number of easy opponents on the road last year.  Last week's final score against Texas (lost 42-28) was a total mirage as they trailed by 28 going into the 4Q.  This is the ultimate "sandwich spot" for them as not only do they come off the high-profile game vs. Texas last week, but they have Baylor on deck.  They are down a key defensive end for this matchup (torn ACL) and McCarney always has his teams ready to play in Denton. 10* North Texas

10* NY Mets (1:05 ET):  Both of these teams are virtual locks to make the playoffs at this point, the Mets moreso. With just 15 games to play, they have an eight game lead in the division after winning last night here, 5-1. Over in the American League, the Yankees are more likely to be resigned to the Wild Card, even though currently they are just 4.5 games back of Toronto, but the problem there is that the Blue Jays just don't lose very often. So, situationally, there aren't too many edges to speak of in this edition of the Subway Series, well, except for the fact the Mets are at home (where they're 47-26 for the season) and that means no DH for the Yankees. The visitors failed to score after the 1st inning yday and I see them getting shut down again Saturday.

Charged w/ shutting the Pinstripes down here will be Mets starter Noah Syndergaard, who should be up for the challenge given a 7-1 record in 10 starts at Citi Field and a 2.15 ERA + 0.831 WHIP. Lately, he has been pretty much lights out.  He dominated Atlanta, on the road, his last time out.  He went seven innings and allowed just one run on two hits over seven innings. He's allowed just 16 baserunners total in his L3 starts, all team wins, and here at home the team has won his last seven starts w/ Syndergaard personally going 5-0.  The Yankees lineup he'll be facing tonight has been scuffling somewhat w/ a .223 batting average in the seven games prior to this series.

The loss of the DH hurts the Yankees more than most teams because their designated hitter is Alex Rodriguez and he really can't play in the field at this stage of his career (only 3 games in 2015).  Also not of assistance lately has been the pitching of Michael Pineda. Since returning from the DL, Pineda has a 5.82 ERA in four starts and has allowed 4+ ER three times while failing to last longer than six innings. He actually pitched very well vs. the Mets earlier in the year, but that was all the way back in April and the offense he faces here is dramatically different. The acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes has helped the Mets go from one of MLB's worst offense to one of its best.  The Mets are also 29-14 in day games this season. 10* NY Mets

8* Maryland (12:00 ET):  The Terps come into this one off a humiliating loss to Bowling Green last week, here in College Park. The final score there was 48-27 and the game was every bit as lopsided as the final score indicates as Maryland was outgained 692-341 and -19 in first downs! However, that BG offense is incredibly prolific.  That was a big reason I took the Falcons in Week 1 vs. Tennessee and though they failed to cover for me (faded down the stretch), maybe it was a more impressive performance than they were given credit for given that UT then held Oklahoma w/o a touchdown until the second half last Saturday. We've also seen teams bounce back from embarrassing losses like that through the years (like Wash St LW), and I have confidence in Maryland doing that this week.  Lay the points.

Suffice to say, South Florida does not have the same offensive capabilities that Bowling Green possesses. The Bulls have averaged below 18 PPG each of the L2 seasons and little stock can be placed into a 51-point effort in the opener as the opponent was a FCS opponent, Florida A&M.  Last week, USF was held to only 14 points and 274 total yards in a loss to Florida State, where they did cover, but never really threatened. Though the defense allowed just six yards passing in the first half, they also gave up 266 yards rushing for the game to Dalvin Cook alone. Last year, the offense scored more than 20 pts only one time against a FBS opponent (Tulsa). This is a team that has lost straight up 17 of the last 19 times it has been an underdog, including a 1-5 SU/ATS mark as a dog of +3.5 to +10 points. Furthermore, they have struggled on the road, losing 13 of 16 and the three wins came by a total of 12 points against opponents that were a combined 1-17 SU at the time! 

So Maryland's defense should have a much easier time here not having to deal w/ the kind of prolific passing attack that they faced last week.  Also, it should be pointed out that it was a 20-20 game vs. Bowling Green heading into the fourth quarter and 27-27 w/ ten minutes left in the game.  The Terps had the lead for most of the first half as well.  A -3 turnover differential did the team no favors whatsoever, but the good news is that can easily be rectified.   The Maryland offense has scored 77 points in two games and averaged 28.5 PPG a year ago.  8* Maryland

8* Connecticut (12:00 ET):  Admittedly, on paper, this does not look like an ideal matchup for the underdog Huskies. They were one of the worst offenses, in terms of points per game, in the entire FBS last year (15.5 PPG) and here they are facing one of the top four defenses in the country in terms of yards per play allowed this year.  But favored Mizzou (3.0 YPP allowed) hasn't exactly been taking on world-beaters to this point as neither SE Missouri State (FCS) or Arkansas State could hardly be classified as "competition."  Laying three scores isn't exactly the Tigers "bag" either; as it stands now this is the most points they've had to lay against a FBS opponent in three seasons w/ the exception of Vanderbilt last year. Take the points.

Missouri has clearly been undervalued since joining the SEC, so it should come as no surprise to see that they posted a 20-8 overall ATS mark in 2013-14.  But they've failed to cover each of their first two games in 2015, including a somewhat lethargic effort LW vs. Arkansas State, which ended up being a 27-20 win.  But they actually trailed in the contest, 17-10 at the half, and were fortunate that their defense was able to bail them out as the offense gained only 282 yards total and 19 first downs. The rushing attack has been fairly anemic to this point as starting RB Russell Hansbrough has been banged up (won't play here), resulting in only 88 yards on 33 carries in the opener. Last week's 134 yds gained on the ground is somewhat misleading as over half the yardage (75) was gained by QB Maty Mauk. At the same time, Mauk's passing numbers have been subpar (48.3 completion percentage). For the sake of reference, Arkansas State lost its first game, 55-6 to USC.

While Mizzou has taken advantage of being undervalued en route to a solid ATS record, UConn is coming off a 2-10 disaster at the betting window in 2014.  Simple regression theory says they should be better this year and now they're really due after getting "backdoored" LW at home by Army. Up 22-10 late and laying 6.5 points, the Huskies allowed a 71-yd TD pass to a team that attempted only eight passes for the game w/ three completions and the other two went for only a combined 14 yards! UConn finished the game w/ big edges in both total yards (415-265) and first downs (23-9). This is the program's first 2-0 start since '08 and they'll be really fired up for this game while Mizzou could be looking ahead to next week's SEC opener. 8* Connecticut

8* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET):  Cleveland has been able to maintain the faintest of playoff hopes, but being four games back and needing to jump three teams is hardly an ideal scenario. The team lost yday at home, 8-4 to the Royals, to fall back under .500. They have a losing record for the season at Progressive Field (33-37) and here we are able to get a relatively cheap price on White Sox starter Chris Sale due to him having an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. Only one of those has really been bad, however, that being the last one where he allowed six runs in just three innings vs. Minnesota. But against the Tribe on Sept 7, he allowed only three runs (all on solo home runs) in seven innings. I look for Sale to bounce back and lead his team to victory.

I actually went against the White Sox yday, on the run line, and came away w/ 4-2 "outright" victory on the A's.  It was a brutal loss for Chicago as closer David Robertson suffered a seventh blown save in 36 tries, giving up a three-run homer in the top of the ninth. (Note: I was in position to win even prior to the HR as Oakland trailed by only one run). I don't think the bullpen will be an issue tonight however, as off his shortest outing of the season, Sale should bounce back and take care of business. For whatever reason, Minnesota has had his number all season, yet the fact remains Sale has the lowest FIP (2.53) among all American League starters w/ only Arrieta & Kershaw from the NL better. He's also top among AL starters w/ 250 K's.  Like I said earlier, this is a pretty cheap price on him.

Meanwhile, I'm not sure I'm a buyer yet on Indians starter Cody Anderson, certainly not for tonight.  Anderson has a 4.96 ERA at home this season and while he's allowed 2 ER or less in four consecutive starts, two of those saw him fail to complete six innings.  Sticking w/ the theme of Cleveland's home woes, they are just 1-5 vs. the White Sox at Progressive Field this season. Anderson allowed seven hits his last time out, equaling the number he'd allowed in his previous three combined.  I just don't see him matching up to Sale and one final note is that Cleveland is just 21-30 this year vs. LH starters. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Run Line Miami (7:05 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Marlins +1.5.  As noted previously, these are tough times for the Nationals, who have shockingly fallen out of contention and into lame-duck status. I believe it's going to be hard for them to finish the season strong, given the lofty preseason predictions they failed to live up to. Coming off a sweep of lowly Philadelphia, they fell here in Miami last night, 6-4 as they were held to only six hits. That made it three losses in four games w/ the Marlins this month and while that one win came w/ Max Scherzer (starting tonight), runs figure to be hard to come by Friday as he'll be opposed by Jose Fernandez. Thus, the RL could come in handy.

With no pressure whatsoever, Miami is having a surprisingly good September, having won 11 of 15. That includes a 2-0 win over these Nationals the last time Fernandez stepped on the mound.  He allowed just two hits in five scoreless frames, thus improving to 5-0 in his eight starts this season where his ERA is 2.06 and his WHIP, 0.979. Though clearly a better pitcher at home, Fernandez has really had the Nats' number through the years, going 3-0 w/ a 0.58 ERA in five starts against them. That includes an earlier start this season where he allowed only one run on four hits in six innings of work. Fernandez has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his eight starts in 2015. He threw only 69 pitches last Saturday in the win.

Like his team, Scherzer has been a major disappointment at the betting window for Nats' backers.  His team start record is only 15-14, which means heavy losses due to the money line (-8.1 units) and he's been a worse pitcher at home where his TSR is 5-8 and he's down 9.7 units.  He has a 6.16 ERA his L3 home starts, while allowing eight home runs, and overall the team has dropped five of the last six games he's started here in D.C. In two home starts this year vs. Miami, Scherzer has allowed a total of nine runs and 16 hits. He was excellent against them on Sunday, but again he nor his team can be trusted at this point. Since July 1st, half (7 of 14) of his starts have been one-run games. The Marlins do no worse here than a one-run loss. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

10* Washington (7:05 ET): Both home teams won and covered on the Opening Night of WNBA playoff action, but here I think the top seeded Liberty need to be on "upset alert" facing an underdog Mystics squad that came here to Madison Square Garden not that long ago and prevailed 82-55 as 4.5-pt dogs. Sure, Washington somewhat stumbled down the stretch, losing 7 of its last 10 regular season games.  But they have played New York very tough throughout the year, beating them a total of three times in four matchups, including both here in MSG (by double digits each time), with the lone loss coming by just three points in overtime.  Take the points.

The Liberty had an outstanding regular season, going 23-11 SU and 23-10-1 ATS, both records being league bests.  But it was also a big jump from last year when they finished 15-19 SU and out of the playoffs.  This is Washington's third straight trip to the postseason. I'm interested to see how New York performs considering they are the favorite. Curiously, the line is several points higher here than it was for the last regular season meeting and that's despite as 27-point win by the Mystics.  Overall, I just think that this is a bad matchup for NY.  Washington nearly matches them in terms of points per game allowed (71.1 to 71.2, which ranked 1-2 in the league) and it was the Mystics playing better defense in the head to head matchups, allowing an average of just 63.8 PPG.

In any sport, when a team finishes the regular season w/ as good an ATS record as the Liberty have, it usually means they were a surprise and came into the season undervalued.  That is the case here w/ the Liberty. They were favorites of more than five points just nine times during the regular season and it's interesting to note that in the season's first meeting it was they who checked in as seven-point dogs.  Something else to keep in mind is that while the Liberty are a ridiculous 12-0-1 ATS as an underdog this year, that means they are just 11-10 ATS when favored, including 8-7 at home, making them basically a "coin-flip" proposition. I think New York would have much rather faced Indiana in the first round. 10* Washington

10* St. Louis (2:20 ET):  The 85-61 Cubs just took care of one potential playoff opponent, taking three of four in Pittsburgh to pull within two games of the Pirates for home field advantage in a potential Wild Card matchup. But it's obvious that this team has even higher aspirations and they'll get a chance this weekend to help achieve them as they welcome in first place St. Louis to the Friendly Confines. As hot as the Cubbies have been though, I'm siding w/ the Redbirds in this one, despite the home field edge.  The Cards just swept a road series in Milwaukee and have had baseball's best record for the majority of the season. They are also 10-6 vs. the Cubs in 2015.

It would require a near miracle for the Cubs to catch the Cardinals; they still trail them by a full seven games. Despite all those day games that they play, Chicago has actually lost money in the afternoon (-3.6) units despite a 34-28 record. Contrast that w/ St. Louis, who is a money-making 28-15 in day games this season.  Today's pitching matchup will actually be a rematch from Sept 7, a 9-0 Cubs win, where Cardinals' starter Lance Lynn got roughed up for six runs in just 2 1/3 innings, dropping him to 0-3 this year vs. Chicago.  But Lynn's got a proven track record and solid overall numbers this year.  He allowed only three runs and four hits in his last start, though St. Louis still lost again. But note that at no point during this season have the Cards lost three consecutive Lynn starts.

For the Cubs, it will be Dan Haren going again and while he looked good starting opposite Lynn the last time, that was pretty much the only time he's looked good since joining the team.  It was his only quality start out of eight in a Cubs' uniform and last time out, he lasted just three innings and gave up four runs, seven hits and three walks. He has a 5.31 ERA as a Cub. Remember that the Cardinals are #1 in all of baseball in run prevention, by a pretty wide margin. The Cubs are actually 7th in runs allowed, but have given up 104 more runs in 146 games, just to give you an idea how significant the gap is.  The Cards have allowed 55 less runs than every other team in baseball. 10* St. Louis

10* Kansas City (8:30 ET):  When the advance line was posted for this AFC West matchup, it was Denver coming in as a slight (-1.5 point) road favorite. But due to growing concerns over Peyton Manning and this Broncos' offense, not to mention the Chiefs' impressive Week 1 win, there's been a fairly dramatic shift and the home team is now getting credit for the game taking place at their stadium. That makes sense as ver since the NFL instituted these Thursday night matchups, we've seen the road teams struggle to win. I think that will be the case again here as there is no denying KC is off the more impressive win last week, as they led big early on the road, while Denver needed two key interceptions to preserve a narrow 19-14 win at home. Lay the points.

Watching all the games in the 1:00 ET window on Sunday, the Chiefs were the first team I marked as a winner. They led 27-6 in the first half before a late Houston "comeback" made the game appear closer than it actually was.  Sure, the Texans finished w/ a 396-330 edge in total yards, but that was a byproduct of a lot of meaningless yardage in the second half.  Kansas City's primary concern coming into the season was the passing game, but QB Alex Smith threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns. Newly acquired WR Jeremy Maclin had 52 of those yards. The defense did its job as well, which should come as no surprise because in 2014, they held opponents to 20 pts or less 11 times.  Yes, the Broncos marked two of those exceptions, but as noted earlier, this is not the same Denver offense we've been accustomed to seeing the L3 years. 

KC has not beaten Denver (0-6 SU) in the three years since Peyton Manning has been there.  But there are now clear signs that the Broncos are trending downward, namely the fact they did not score a single offensive TD last week. This after a somewhat dramatic dropoff in offensive production during the second half of last season. Incredibly, they gained only 219 total yds LW vs. the Ravens w/ Manning failing to throw for 200 yds for the third time in his last six regular seasons games and averaging just 4.4 yards per pass attempt. Even more concerning is that the Broncos' offensive line allowed four sacks, the most times Manning had gone down in nearly two years, and the Chiefs have one of the top pass rushes in the entire league. Thursday will be the Chiefs' night.  10* Kansas City

8* Indiana (8:05 ET):  Compared to previous seasons, the WNBA playoff picture is a lot more wide open in 2015. This is most apparent in the Eastern Conference where the four playoff participants finished the regular season separated by just five games. What's interesting here though, in the Indiana-Chicago series, is that the Sky swept the regular season series, winning all four matchups by an average of nearly 20 PPG w/ three of the wins coming by 23 or more. But I caution you in that three of those games were also played prior to July 1st, which was a LONG time ago. Also, it doesn't make a lot of sense that two teams that appear to be so even would have such one-sided results. I'm taking the points w/ the Fever in this one.

The main storyline heading into the series is this being a rematch of LY's Eastern Conference Final, which was surprisingly won by the underdog Sky in three games.  However, there was a great deal of good fortune in Chicago's run to the WNBA finals a year ago as three of their four wins came by three points or less, including a double OT win at home over Indiana.  So the Fever, the underdog this time around, certainly shouldn't be lacking in motivation, especially considering the way the regular season matchup went.

Also contributing to the Fever being undervalued in this one is the fact they closed the regular season on a 2-7 ATS run. But they were actually favored in over half of those games and all but one of the losses (at Minnesota) was a close game. They beat the top seed, New York, twice down the stretch, including in the regular season finale. They also finished the regular season with a winning road record.  Chicago, while 13-4 SU at home, was just 8-9 against the spread.  My biggest concern w/ them is the fact they give up an average of 78.8 points per game, which somewhat nullifies any advantage they have of being the league's top scoring team.  Things will not be as easy here in the playoffs as they were in the regular season vs. the Fever and I'm anticipating a tough series. 8* Indiana

10* Louisville (7:30 ET): What a difference a couple of games make! A week ago, this line almost certainly would have been close to a pick 'em, but with L'ville opening the season w/ B2B close losses and Clemson looking impressive in a pair of victories, the Tigers are now big favorites on the road. They are of course the pick of many to win the entire ACC as well. But for this conference opener, I think we'll be getting a desperate home team playing at its best as Bobby Petrino's Cardinals probably couldn't have fathomed an 0-3 start prior to the season beginning. Both of their losses have been close (by a total of 10 pts) to good teams (Auburn, Houston).  Clemson, on the other hand, has yet to be tested and comes in overvalued. Take the points.

To me, this is a clear case of overreacting to the respective records. Though it was a "backdoor cover" in Week 1 vs. Auburn, Louisville had the edge in total yards 405-327. They nearly put up another 400 total yds of offense last week at home vs. Houston. The problem, and it is a big one, has been six turnovers in the two games. That must be cleaned up. After a strong finish to the Houston game, Kyle Bolin will get the starting nod at QB and the Clemson defense he'll face here is dramatically different than the one the Cardinals faced last year. Only three starters are back on that side of the ball this year for the Tigers and that's one of the reasons I'm at little leery of them here, in their first real test of the season. Clemson won LY's game only by a score of 23-17 and that was in Death Valley as nine-point favorites. It certainly appears that there's a lot of value on the home dog in this one.

Clemson has played Wofford (FCS) and Appalachian State in its first two games, so the impressive numbers have to be taken w/ a grain of salt.  With an open date followed by big home games against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech coming up, don't be surprised if the Tigers get caught peeking ahead past this one. Louisville, in search of its first win, certainly will not. Petrino is 27-2 SU as the HC at Louisville, plus 53-9 SU in all stops as the host in his coaching career. So, it's pretty stunning to see him as a dog of this magnitude. Before losing to Houston last week, he was 9-1 SU off a SU loss as HC at L'ville. The team is 6-2 SU in non-Saturday games the past two years. On the road, they outgained Clemson (264-299) in LY's meeting. 10* Louisville

10* Baltimore (7:10 ET):  The Orioles are coming off a successful series, one where they were in a position to sweep the Red Sox at home, before losing yday by a score of 10-1.  Tampa Bay happened to let me down Wednesday, falling at home to the Yankees, 3-1. They've now lost four of five (and 7 of 10) and like Baltimore it's becoming increasingly unlikely that they'll be headed to the postseason. The O's haven't exactly been a strong road team in 2015, but the Rays also happen to have one of the weaker home records in all of baseball as there simply aren't many teams worse than four games below .500 in their own park. Tonight's series opener is also a battle of struggling starters, so I'll side w/ the better offense in this one.

Over the L2 seasons, Baltimore has actually found a great deal of success against Tampa Bay, going 20-14, including a 4-2 mark this year at Tropicana Field.  This team probably should be in a better position right now, considering a +25 run differential which is actually significantly better than all of the teams they are attempting to chase down in the Wild Card race.  Tampa Bay has been outscored by 15 runs this season and the major difference between them and the Orioles is that Baltimore has scored nearly 100 more runs this season. That should serve the visitors well here against embattled starter Matt Moore, who has simply not gotten the job done in his eight starts since returning from a long stint on the DL.  He has an 8.42 ERA and 1.926 WHIP w/ the team going 2-6 when he's on the mound. Last time out was his worst start yet as he yielded eight runs in just five innings of a 10-4 home loss to Boston.

Admittedly, Chris Tillman hasn't been much better for the Orioles of late. A poor four-start stretch includes him getting roughed up by these Rays back on September 1st at home. But in his last start here at the Trop, he went seven innings and allowed only one run on two hits! I'll look for "that Tillman" to show up on the mound tonight and it helps that the Rays' offense has been held to 1 or 0 runs in three of the last four games while striking out an unbelievable 49 times.  The Orioles, without question, have been the better team of late. 10* Baltimore

8* Run Line Oakland (2:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the A's +1.5.  Oakland and one-run games simply haven't mixed this season as the club is an awful 16-32 in them, including a loss here in the series opener. They bounced back w/ 17 runs on Tuesday, which is indicative of the kind of win we're used to seeing from them as they have nearly as many wins this year by 4+ runs (30) as they do by three or less (32).  The A's did lose again last night, 9-4, here in Chicago, but w/ the benefit of the run line I think they're a safe bet Thursday afternoon as it helps to nullify not only their own bad luck, but some of the surprising good fortune that has gone the White Sox way in 2015. 

Chicago doesn't have a winning record in one-run games either, but they are 13-3 in extra innings this year, easily the best such record in baseball. They've actually been outscored at home this season, by a half run per game margin, which is pretty severe. Last night's game saw the two teams finish w/ an identical number of hits (8) and it was just one big inning that brought the White Sox to the pay window.  These two also have identical 23-31 records in day games this year, so there's no discernible edge there either. Yesterday marked just the second time in the last seven games that the Sox pitching staff didn't allow at least six runs. I just don't see Oakland doing any worse than a one-run loss here.

Starter Sean Nolin has progressively gotten better w/ each passing outing for the A's and last time out he allowed just one run and five hits in 5 1/3 innings, good enough for his first career victory at the big league level. He'll be opposed by Jose Quintana, who despite a winless August personally has seen the team win each of his L5 starts. That streak likely ends today as two of those wins were of the one-run variety and historically Quintana has been a victim of terrible run support.  That's gotten better lately, but what hasn't is a WHIP that's 1.500 his L3 starts.  He's allowed at least seven baserunners in all of his starts since the All-Star Break while only one time finishing the seventh inning.  8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

10* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET):  It's a very quick turnaround from last night when the Cubs prevailed 3-2 in 12 innings.  I happened to be on the Northsiders, but this is a matchup I called "pretty even" in my analysis and only backed the road team in large part because of Jake Arrieta being on the hill.  Arrieta certainly got the job done as I'd expected, save for one bad throw to first base, as he allowed just two runs on six hits (all singles) in eight innings. But he can't be on the hill every day for Chicago and today it's Kyle Hendricks, who isn't nearly as accomplished and has a 5.63 ERA in three starts vs the Pirates. The Bucs counter w/ Charlie Morton, who has been more than just solid at home this year.

Even after the loss Wednesday, Pittsburgh remains tied w/ St. Louis for the best record in baseball at 50-24.  That's a pretty strong advantage and they also happen to be 26-15 in day games. After dropping the game last night, the Pirates are now just three games up on the Cubs and they certainly can't afford to "give away" home field advantage for the potential Wild Card matchup.  Thankfully, Morton happens to have a 6-2 record (8-2 TSR) w/ a 3.00 ERA here at PNC Park this season. His ERA in his last three starts overall is identical and he's been able to last at least six innings all three times. Opponents are batting just .218 against Morton his L6 starts. The Cubs have yet to face him in 2015.

Meanwhile, Hendricks has had some issues, mainly w/ control lately. His walk rate has more than doubled since the All-Star Break as his ERA over his L11 starts is up to 4.95 while he's allowed an OBP of .329.  He has struggled against Pittsburgh this year w/ a 5.63 ERA in three starts. The last time he faced them, which was back in May, saw him allow five runs in 5 2/3 IP.  The two games the Pirates have lost in this series have come against the Cubs' two best pitchers (Arrieta, Jon Lester). Free from the burden of facing either this afternoon, I look for them to earn a split as Getaway Day often greatly favors the home team and this is a strong home team to begin with. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Houston (8:05 ET):  The Astros are now in second place in the American League West, for the first time since June, thanks to losing last night's game to the Rangers, 6-5. It was their second straight loss to open this series and overall they've dropped 7 of their last 10 games. The Rangers, who actually have a terrible record in division games, have somehow managed to win 10 of 14 against Houston and that could end up being the difference in this race. But for tonight, the difference is that the Astros have ace Dallas Keuchel on the hill. I mentioned that Houston has only four wins vs. Texas all year, and not surprisingly the last one came w/ Keuchel on the hill. They've since gone 0-5 since August against them as he hasn't started any of those games. He'll get his team back on track Wednesday.

Texas is one of those teams that looks like they will simply defy the odds. They have a poor YTD run differential (-24); consider that every other division leader is at least +74.  In fact, every team in the AL East has a better run differential than do the Rangers, who are actually fourth worst in the entire American League in that department. They have a pedestrian 36-33 home record and have actually been outscored this year in Arlington. Last night was a one-run win, their 26th such victory this season, via a sac fly.  I'm just not buying this ballclub.  First year manager Jeff Banister was aggressive w/ his starting rotation in the first two games of the series, sending out Cole Hamels and Derek Holland, but that leaves him w/ Martin Perez for tonight.  Perez has a 5.43 ERA and 1.500 WHIP and allowed five runs in just five innings his last time out.

Clearly, Perez can't match up to Keuchel, who is having an unbelievable year. He has a WHIP below 1.00 (0.997) and the team has won 20 of his 29 starts.  Last time out, all three runs allowed were unearned.  But he didn't give up anything the last time he faced the Rangers as back on July 19th, he delivered seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball. The Astros won the game 10-0.  That also dropped Keuchel's ERA to 1.23 vs. the Rangers this season, allowing three runs in 22 innings. All but five of Keuchel's 29 starts have been quality. 8* Houston

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET):  For all intents and purposes, the Rays' playoff chances are done. They're 6.5 back of the Wild Card and well off the pace in the AL East. Losing six of eight pretty much sunk them, but they did bounce back Tuesday (won 6-3) against the equally struggling Yankees.  Now, for Wednesday, they can turn to Chris Archer, who is not only their top pitcher, but also 5-1 all-time vs. the Yanks.  While a losing record at home is one of the main culprits in Tampa Bay's disappointing record (also 2-13 in one-run games), Archer should prove to be the difference maker in this one. I said earlier that the Yankees had been struggling themselves; last night was their sixth loss in the last eight games.

Archer clearly deserves better than 12-11 WL record (17-13 TSR) seeing as he has a 2.99 ERA and 1.066 WHIP.  He hasn't necessarily been "at his best" the last two starts, but we've seen him bounce back in similar situations to throw a gem, all year long.  Archer actually just faced the Yankees on Sept 6 and was given a 3-0 lead entering the sixth inning, but he and the bullpen couldn't hold w/ him allowing B2B home runs & the 'pen allowing two more runs. I'd expect a bounce back type performance here given Archer had previously won five of six starts vs. New York thanks to a 1.93 ERA. He shut them out over 6 2/3 innings in the Bronx back on July 3rd. That was one of nine starts this season where he went at least six innings w/o allowing a single run.

The Yankees counter w/ Luis Severino, the most touted arm in the organization. But for the first time in his big league career, Severino will be coming off a rough outing, one that saw him give up six runs in just 2 2/3 innings Friday to Toronto.  Granted, that's the best offense in MLB & he'd previously delivered his best outing of the year against these Rays, whose offense is nowhere near the Jays.  But I think the home team is more likely to win a pitcher's duel tonight as remember they are #2 in the entire American League in run prevention. The Yankees came into yday hitting a collective .221 the L7 games and finished Tuesday's game w/ only five hits. I look for Archer to lead the way here. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET):  So the way things stand now, the Cubs trail the Pirates by four games after the two split a doubleheader yesterday. This is your likely Wild Card matchup in the N.L., so basically the teams are just playing for homefield advantage at this point. Both games were decided by one run yday & the Cubs still hold a 7-5 edge head to head vs. the Bucs this season while also having the slightly better September record (9-5 vs. 8-7). So, on paper, this potential Wild Card matchup looks pretty even, no?  Not tonight, however, as Chicago sends its ace, Jake Arrieta, to the hill. He has been nothing short of remarkable during the second half of the season and gives his team a big edge tonight on ESPN.

Arrieta has replaced Jon Lester as the Cubs' ace. Keep in mind that Game 2 yday saw Lester go the distance, holding Pittsburgh to just one run on five hits.  Arrieta is a ridiculous 13-1 w/ a 1.00 ERA since June 21st (115 K's in 117 IP!), including a perfect 8-0 his L8 w/ a minuscule 0.46 ERA! Lately, the numbers are even more other-worldly. Over his L3 starts, Arrieta has a 0.36 ERA and 0.520 WHIP. After not allowing a single earned run in five consecutive starts, Arrieta finally yielded one in Friday's start at Philadelphia (was a -340 ML favorite!), on a solo home run, but that was all he allowed in eight innings. It was just his second home run allowed since July 1st!

All things considered, this is a remarkably cheap price on Arrieta, whose current trajectory may land him the NL Cy Young over Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers' two studs. Arrieta would obviously start the Wild Card Game vs. Pittsburgh and the Cubs should clearly feel confident giving the ball to him, especially because the last time he faced the Pirates, he allowed just two hits in seven scoreless innings and that was here at PNC Park. Overall, he has 19 K's in 21 IP (three starts) vs. this year vs. Pittsburgh.  The fact the Pirates are countering w/ AJ Burnett leaves a lot to be desired seeing as this is just his second start since coming back from the DL.  The Cubs are now tied for the most road wins in the National League, which obviously serves them well. So too does having Arrieta on the bump. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Houston (8:05 ET):  Perhaps sensing "the kill," Texas has decided to make a pitching change for this game, turning to Derek Holland instead of Martin Perez. Monday's 5-3 win leaves the Rangers just one-half game back of the Astros in the American League West and one game up on Minnesota for the second Wild Card.  The move to Holland makes sense in a vacuum as since rejoining the rotation in late August, his ERA is 2.97 in seven starts. But he was roughed up a bit his last time out and I remain skeptical of this ballclub on a macro level as their YTD run differential remains -25, indicating they are a big overachiever in terms of won-loss record.  For the sake of comparison, Houston is +103 in run differential (3rd best in MLB) this year.

The Astros have a pretty good pitcher going tonight as well. Colin McHugh, like his counterpart Holland, was roughed up a bit his last time out, but prior to that he'd allowed 2 ER or less in six consecutive starts.   His first start after the All-Star Break was against these Rangers and he allowed only 1 run in 6 IP (despite giving up 11 hits). Since that time, he's gone 7-2 w/ a 2.80 ERA in 10 starts. While a good amount of run support has played a significant role in that record, the fact remains McHugh is 3-0 vs. Texas this year w/ a 1.89 ERA.  Meanwhile, I just don't know how trustworthy Holland is going to be down the stretch. He gave up five runs and nine hits, both season highs, his last time out. 

This remains a big revenge spot for Houston, who not only lost last night, but were also swept here in Arlington last month. I still believe them to be the better team, despite the division race tightening over the last month. The Astros do have pretty dramatic home/road splits, but the line between winning and losing has been rather thin for them of late. Not only was last night's game decided on a 2-run Prince Fielder HR in the bottom of the eighth, but four of the Astros' previous five losses had been by just a single run. Before exploding for 12 runs Sunday, the Rangers' offense had been very quiet over the last week and over the L7 games, the team batting average is a pretty woeful .217.  10* Houston

10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Another slow start to the season may very well again cost the Indians a playoff spot, but there is no denying the Tribe is playing well right now. They beat first place Kansas City here at home in last night's series opener, 8-3, to make it 13 wins in their last 18 games overall. That includes a 7-3 run here in division play going back to Sept 4 (4th straight series vs. AL Central foe).  Meanwhile, Kansas City is mired in its worst 10-game stretch of the season (2-8) currently as there could be a case of complacency w/ the division well in hand.  With the red-hot Josh Tomlin on the bump this evening, I'm coming back w/ Cleveland tonight as they make it two in a row over the Royals.

The Indians had a bad April (7-14), but since then are seven games over .500 and I believe them to be a better team than both Texas and Minnesota, whom they are attempting to chase down in the Wild Card race.  A poor home record (32-35) is something else that may end up costing the team, but before splitting a doubleheader w/ Detroit on Sunday, they'd won 12 of 13 here at Progressive Field. So, that's still a 14-2 run here at home (for those keeping score) and tonight they can turn to Tomlin, who has won his L5 starts and now has a 2.85 ERA and remarkable 0.732 WHIP. His KW ratio is an outstanding 33-3 during the win streak. Last time out, he did give up three home runs, all solo shots, but otherwise allowed just two more hits in 5 2/3 IP.

For the Tribe, this is a chance to move over .500 for the first time since taking two of three from Houston in the very first series of the year! So, it's a very big game for them. On the other hand, there's a real lack of urgency for these Royals right now and it's showing. Tomlin's issue w/ giving up home runs should not be factor here as Kansas City has hit just 119 HR's all year, which is near the bottom of baseball. Starter Kris Medlen has struggled of late and has lost as a big favorite in B2B outings. Taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning wasn't enough for him Wednesday as the team still lost 3-2 to the Twins in 12 innings. The time before that he was tagged for seven runs and 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings. 10* Cleveland

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET):  It may be a case of "too little, too late," but after a dreadful end to August, the Orioles have somewhat turned things around here in September by winning five of their last six. That includes a 2-0 shutout of the Red Sox last night here at Camden Yards. These teams are only separated by two games in the standings, but Baltimore has been a much better team overall this season and has the superior run differential to show for it (+33 vs. -20).  They are also strong home team (41-28) while the Red Sox have really struggled on the road (29-40), including a 9-20 mark at +125 or less on the money line. Therefore, considering Boston's 1-7 record coming off a shutout loss this season, I'm on the other side.

Red Sox starter Joe Kelly has won an incredible eight straight starts. Yet, for the season his ERA & WHIP remain at 4.70 and 1.424 WHIP respectively. Kelly has been solid during the win streak, but the majority of those starts have been against bad teams. Last time out, he squared off w/ an equally fortunate pitcher, Toronto's Drew Hutchison, and came out on top thanks to allowing just one run on six hits in 5 2/3 IP. It also helped that his offense happened to supply him w/ 10 runs. The last time he went up against Baltimore, things did not go so well as Kelly allowed five runs and eight hits in just 3 2/3 IP. Keep in mind that this is a pitcher that was DEMOTED as recently as July. Boston is just 4-10 vs. Baltimore this season. 

Kelly shouldn't expect much in the way of run support this evening, at least based on last night's performance where the Red Sox lineup finished the game w/ only three hits. Also, the O's will counter w/ Ubaldo Jimenez, who has won as an underdog his L2 times out. Jimenez was able to overcome control issues (six walks!) on Sept 4 at Toronto (10-2 win) and then was much better Wednesday at Yankee Stadium, allowing just four hits in seven innings of work (8-0 KW ratio).  Earlier I mentioned Baltimore's strong play at home this season and that has certainly been the case when welcoming in the Red Sox as they are 6-1 at Camden Yards against their division rival in 2015. The offense scored 28 runs in the last series. 8* Baltimore

10* San Francisco (10:20 ET):  Let's talk about this line move, shall we? Over the summer, the 49ers originally opened as 4.5-point chalk. They're now getting almost a field goal at most shops, which is quite the move. This has a lot to do w/ not much being expected this year from the Niners, a former NFC powerhouse under Jim Harbaugh. But Harbaugh is gone and reports aren't too high on new HC Jim Tomsula. But though I think this will easily be the Niners' worst year since before Harbaugh, I'm not really sold on the trendy Vikings, who are the "other" part of this equation. They have RB Adrian Peterson back and what is considered an up and coming roster have many thinking Minnesota will be in the playoffs. I do not share in that thought process. Take the points.

The Vikings went 7-9 SU last year. They did not beat a single team that finished w/ a winning record.  They had four wins by four points or less, two of them in OT, and those wins came at the expense of the Bucs, Redskins, Jets and Bears. This was the only team in the league last year to win multiple overtime games. For as much praise that's been heaped on QB Teddy Bridgewater, the offense was very conservative last year as his average yards per pass attempt were quite low. The Vikings averaged only 20.3 points per game in 2014.  They were favored in only five games all of last season, just three times closing higher than -1.  It's an expression I use often, but for good reason, as "the cart is being placed in front of the horse" as far as Minnesota is concerned.  I don't see them improving this year the way others do.

San Francisco lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. But I don't think the Minnesota offensive is explosive enough to take advantage. Meanwhile, the Niners' offense might very well be improved thanks to the addition of WR Torrey Smith, who is the best in the league at drawing DPI, something that cannot be discounted.  The Niners should also be able to run the ball in this game as Minnesota was just 25th against the run, allowing nearly 2,000 yards, last year. MNF history suggests SF is the play here as they are on a 9-1 ATS run while the Vikings are 0-6 ATS L6 MNF games.  Don't forget that Minnesota will be w/o its starting center for the first eight weeks. 10* San Francisco

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET):  While the NFL's 49ers will be opening their season Monday night, elsewhere in the Bay we find MLB's Giants desperately trying to stay alive in the National League playoff race. It's not looking good right now for the reigning World Series Champs as they're currently 7.5 games back in both the division and Wild Card.  But they did turn things around over the weekend w/ a dominant three-game sweep of the Padres here at home. They outscored San Diego 27-4 in the three games & now are 41-27 as the home team this season. Speaking of home field advantage, the Reds are an awful road team, 26-42 for the year. Coming off a competitive series at home vs. St. Louis, I expect them to struggle here.

Keyvius Sampson will be toeing the rubber here for the Reds and he has not looked good of late, or really all season. He has a 7.13 ERA and 1.868 WHIP in eight starts in 2015 and over his last three, he's been even worse at 9.75 and 2.083. Last time out, he gave up five runs in just 5 1/3 IP.  Again, this is a Giants' lineup that really came around over the weekend.  They should really "tee off" tonight against Sampson, who is issuing 5.59 walks per nine innings his L5 starts, a stretch where opponents are batting nearly .400 (.393) against him!  In the only previous series between these teams this year, San Francisco totaled 30 runs in three wins.

Just like the hitting, Giants pitching has come around as of late w/ opponents averaging just 2.6 runs the L7 games and batting a collective .198.   It was Tim Hudson beginning a five-game stretch that has seen the staff allow just 22 hits. Hudson made his first start in over a month last Tuesday and went six strong innings, allowing just one run on four hits. He's gone at least seven innings his last four starts against the Reds. I look for the better team to assert itself in Monday's series opener. 8* San Francisco

10* Oakland (8:10 ET):  Because his team has been so bad, A's starter Sonny Gray is typically available at a cheaper price than he should and such is the case tonight as Oakland opens up a four-game set in Chicago.  Note that I went against the Athletics yday afternoon, and won, as they fell in Texas, 12-4.  That was after I won w/ them Saturday. So I feel that I've got a pretty good pulse on this club right now and, of course, I should point out the team's YTD run differential (-11), which is far better than what you'd expect from a team that's currently 21 games below .500. It's a better run differential than that of the White Sox, who should feel very fortunate to be 12-3 in extra inning games. For a change, the luck will be on Oakland's side here.

Gray clearly deserves better than 16-12 team start record given a 2.28 ERA and 1.002 WHIP.  On the road, he's actually been slightly better w/ a 1.72 ERA and a 9-5 TSR. Last time out, Gray tossed seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball, the fifth time in his L8 starts that he allowed 1 ER or less.  That road ERA is tied w/ the Cubs' Jake Arrieta for the lowest in all of MLB and overall his ERA is second lowest in the American League. The lineup Gray will face here is not strong as the White Sox were shut out Sunday and held to only five hits. For the year, Chicago is 27th in runs scored, 26th in OBP and 28th in slugging. Gray did not face the Sox back in May when the A's were swept at home.

Meanwhile, John Danks is coming off perhaps his finest outing of 2015 for the White Sox.  He went the distance in a win at Kansas City, allowing seven hits, but I wonder if that was a bit foolish to let him go that long as the final score ended up being 12-1 and Danks needed to throw 121 pitches (a season-high) to finish the deal. Now, he was rightly given extra rest (10 days), but consider this hasn't exactly been the best year for Danks, who has a 4.48 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in 26 starts and the team's record is just 12-14 in those games.  Before the CG shutout, Danks had been winless over his previous three starts and posted a 6.50 ERA.  Look for Gray to lead his team to victory tonight. 10* Oakland

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET):  Though in the thick of the wide open Wild Card race in the American League, I'm not entirely sold on the Twins' chances for postseason success. Yet, here they will be drawing a division foe in much worse shape, that being once-mighty Detroit, who had to play a doubleheader Sunday and will be turning to embattled starter Kyle Lobstein tonight. Since waving the proverbial "white flag" at the trade deadline, the Tigers have been a very bad ballclub (20-33 L53 games) and now own the worst run differential in the entire American League (-102). Only Colorado, Atlanta and Philadelphia are worse from the NL.  Quite simply, this is a series Minnesota must take advantage of and I'll take them in tonight's opener.

Detroit is allowing a ton of runs this season, the most in the entire AL in fact, and tonight's starter Kyle Lobstein has played a significant role in that.  Over his L3 starts, Lobstein is 0-3 w/ an 8.04 ERA and 1.851 WHIP.  He's given up 14 runs in just 15 2/3 innings during that time.  Starting against Minnesota earlier in the year, back in May, he allowed six runs in his shortest outing of the season, one where he lasted just 2 1/3 innings.  Overall, there's been just one start for Lobstein this year where he didn't allow 3+ ER.  In two career starts vs. the Twins, Lobstein is 0-2 w/ a 15.43 ERA. 

Situationally, this is a good spot for Minnesota as not only is the series taking place at Target Field (where they've gone 42-26 as opposed to 32-42 on the road), plus all three games in this series will be at night.  The Tigers have a winning record in day games this season, but are a woeful 36-52 (-14.8 units) at night.  While the Twins have lost 8 of 13 matchups w/ Detroit this season, they did take three of four from them in the most recent series, here in Minnesota, scoring 24 runs on 35 hits.  Starter Tyler Duffey has a 2.53 ERA at home and looked sharp his last time out in giving up just 2 ER and 6 hits over 6 2/3 innings at Houston. Sure, the team lost the game, but they were also facing Dallas Keuchel (hasn't lost at home all season) as a huge underdog.  Previously, the Twins had gone 4-0 in Duffey's last four starts.  8* Minnesota

8* Atlanta (7:10 ET):  I think the wrong team is favored here.  I have the Falcons as being much improved for 2015 while the Eagles, who undertook a massive roster turnover, figure to take a step back.  This will also be new Atlanta HC Dan Quinn's home debut, so the team and fans should be quite fired up. Even during the failed Mike Smith era, the Falcons were a pretty dominant home team, going 39-15 SU w/ Matt Ryan as their quarterback. Therefore, the idea that they would be a dog in a matchup of two pretty even looking teams seems curious to me. While Philadelphia looked pretty impressive in the first three preseason games, remember that was preseason. Take the points here.

In the first two weeks of the season, the Falcons are 15-5 ATS at home. All the talk coming into this matchup seems to be about Chip Kelly's offense, but Atlanta averaged 23.8 points per game themselves last year and was fifth in passing. QB Ryan should be able to take advantage of a highly questionable Eagles secondary. He has thrown for seven TD passes his last two games against Philly, who allowed more passing yards than all but one team (Atlanta!) last year. That includes 72 pass plays of 20+ yards, which was the most in the entire league.  New Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has succeeded w/ far less than he has here, so I expect this to be a strong offensive unit in 2015. 

The Eagles offense will have five new starters coming into the year and I'm still skeptical of Sam Bradford's ability to both stay healthy and produce. The new QB threw only 15 passes in the preseason. The offensive line, which was a major strength under Kelly the L2 years, has been rebuilt.  TE Zach Ertz will miss this game. With Quinn at the helm, I feel that the Falcons defense stands to improve more than the Eagles. I loved the Vic Beasley draft pick as it will help a moribund pass rush.  I just keep coming back to the home field advantage though; Atlanta was a home dog just three times last year and won two of those games outright. They'd actually covered five straight in that role before a Week 15 loss to the Steelers last year. 8* Atlanta

10* NY Giants (8:30 ET):  In the interest of full disclosure, I'm pretty high on the Giants this year. So high in fact, that I have them winning the division. Thus, it stands to reason that I would certainly be in favor of taking the points here in a big NFC East matchup w/ the Cowboys. This sure seems like a lot of points for Dallas to be laying, no?  For years, under HC Jason Garrett, America's team has struggled when favored, yet excelled as a dog. That continued in 2014 as they were 5-1 ATS taking points (four outright upsets), but just 6-6 ATS as chalk.  That brings Garrett's five-year run as head coach to 15-27-1 ATS when favored and 21-8 ATS as an underdog.  Giants' HC Tom Coughlin has similar success in the dog role & I see the potential for an upset here. Take the points.

The Giants were a team victimized by close losses a year ago.  They went 0-4 SU in games decided by seven points or less, which not coincidentally was also how many games they finished below .500.  Only outscored by 20 pts last season, the G-Men should have finished closer to 8-8.  Thus, they are prime candidates to have a breakthrough season in my book.  QB Eli Manning, I think, is poised for a big year once he gets his full compliment of receivers back.  Yes, it's looking like Victor Cruz will not play Sunday night, but Odell Beckham will and I'm willing to bet on him scoring a touchdown or two.  This is also a big revenge spot for New York as they lost both games to Dallas last year. In fact, they've been swept each of the last two years.

Dallas rode the league's best offensive line and an opportunistic defense to the division title in 2014, but they're unlikely to repeat for a number of reasons.  The offensive line remains intact, but who will be running the ball now that DeMarco Murray has moved on to Philadelphia?  The defense will almost certainly regress.  Non-playoff division road dogs are on a 6-0 ATS run at +3.5 or less in Wk 1, if their rival made the playoffs the previous season.  This is just too many points to be laying the first week of the season as the Giants will be better this year and the Cowboys will be worse (compared to 2014, at least).  10* NY Giants

10* Under Giants/Cowboys (8:30 ET):  The expectation here is a shootout.  I have actually gone on record and said that I expect the NFC East to feature a series of shootouts in 2015. With the exception of Washington, every team has an offense that is much further along compared to the defense. But this is also a high total for the 1st game. Granted, each of the last five Giants-Cowboys meetings have gone Over as have the last six here in Dallas.  But aren't all trends meant to be broken?  It helps that this total is higher than any of the previous five meetings.  Therefore, I'm on the Under Sunday night. 

No team ran the ball better than Dallas in 2014.  Much of that was owed to the league's best offensive line. But there's an issue with the running game entering 2015, that being who will actually be running with the ball. DeMarco Murray is gone to Philadelphia and left in his wake is a committee approach. It remains to be seen if that will be effective.  Last year, the Cowboys averaged 137.5 yards per game rushing against the Giants.  I do not believe they will approach that number Sunday night.   

  Eli Manning is poised to have a big year for the Giants. It's his second year in OC Ben McAdoo's system.  But he does not yet have a full compliment of receivers as it's looking more and more that Victor Cruz will miss this game. Expect Odell Beckham to still make a few big plays, but the onus will now be on Manning to force the ball to him. That likely leads to less consistency moving the ball.  Perhaps, the G-Men will turn to a more "ground and pound" approach themselves, which of course chews up clock and means less time of possession for the opponent.   The Under is 4-0-1 in Dallas' last five home games, by the way.  10* UNder Giants/Cowboys

8* Over Titans/Buccaneers (4:25 ET): This is a battle of the #1 and #2 overall picks from May's draft, both QB's, Jameis Winston for Tampa Bay and Marcus Mariota for Tennessee. I suppose the expectation is for each to struggle as they obviously went to teams that were really bad in 2014.  But w/ neither team's defense being particularly great either, don't be surprised if this game turns into a little bit of a shootout.  Because Tampa Bay was 11-5 Under a year ago (7-1 at home) and Tennessee 10-6, we're able to take advantage of a pretty low O/U line, in fact, it's currently tied for second lowest on the entire Week 1 board, just a half-point ahead of Seattle-St. Louis. All we need are six touchdowns in four quarters of play! Take the Over.

Tampa Bay had the worst offense in the league a year ago.  A major reason for that was the play at QB, from both Josh McCown and Mike Glennon.  Enter Winston, who is an immediate upgrade at the position.  While offensive line remains a question mark (starting two rookies), Winston does have some good talent to work w/ at the skill positions. His job will be much easier if RB Doug Martin gets back to the level he was at a few years ago. One player that I expect to have a big game Sunday is WR Vincent Jackson, especially if Mike Evans doesn't go. However, with a rookie QB, mistakes are going to be made. Of course, that applies to both sides in this game. I can imagine there being some turnovers in this game, which in turn leads to easy points for the other team.

Tennessee's offense was also terrible last year as they averaged only 15.9 points per game, fewest in the league.  But they too are set to improve on that side of the ball, if for only the fact it can't possibly get any worse.  Defensively though, the issues remain.  The Titans allowed nearly 30 PPG on the road last season. Both teams, in fact, allowed more than 25 PPG overall.  I just don't see this being the "snoozefest" that others might be projecting and Mariota & Winston will both play well enough to help push this one past the total.  8* Over Titans/Buccaneers

8* Oakland (4:25 ET):  Don't sleep on the Raiders this season. Sure, the Silver and Black still have a ways to go to being considered true contenders, but I think they'll be a tough out in 2015. They've drafted well (on both sides of the ball) the last two years and the result will be improved play on the field.  They start the year w/ three consecutive games against the AFC North, two at home (this one & vs. Baltimore), then the dreaded (for them) 1:00 ET start time at Cleveland. You have to figure they won't lose all three, and honestly I feel this Week 1 contest might just be their best shot at victory. I have Cincinnati taking a step back this season as they seem to have plateaued following four consecutive one-and-done playoff appearances.  Take the points, but you may not actually need them!

It is said that "good teams know how to win close games."  I don't really agree w/ that. Often times, winning close games gives you a good record. For the 2014 Bengals, that was certainly the case as they finished 10-6-1 (including playoffs) despite being dead even in scoring differential. Sure enough, they went 3-0-1 in games decided by seven points or less. As I continuously harp on, that kind of success in close games is very difficult to sustain, year to year.  Andy Dalton is still the quarterback in Cincinnati and the reality of the matter is there's no better option. The last four seasons, the rest of the team has been good enough to often carry "the Red Rifle," but is that the case any longer? By the way, the Bengals are 1-3 SU/ATS as road favorites of 3 pts or less the past two seasons.

Oakland has some nice building blocks on this roster. While not fully sold on QB Derek Carr, he was a much better value in terms of where he was taken in the draft compared to Blake Bortles or Johnny Manziel and there is promise there. He now actually has a real NFL-quality receiver to throw to in rookie Amari Cooper. On the other side of the ball, I absolutely love Khalil Mack, who I expect to have a big jump in # of sacks this season. The Raiders were on the flip side of the Bengals last year as they lost a lot of close games (five by 7 pts or less) and I think some of those will turn into 'W's' this year. This is also new head coach Jack Del Rio's home debut, by the way. 8* Oakland

8* San Diego (4:05 ET):  Here's a game where I feel the favorite isn't receiving nearly enough respect.  Granted, Detroit made the playoffs last year and San Diego did not, but that margin can often times be razor thin.  Last year's Lions were a pretty fortunate bunch in my estimation as they were 6-2 SU in games decided by seven points or less & had the Pythagorean Win Expectation of basically a 9-win team.  I have them regressing pretty severely in 2015 as the defense took a major hit in the offseason, losing not only Ndamukong Suh, but Nick Fairley as well.  The Chargers can't possibly be as banged up as they were last year and recall that QB Philip Rivers, when healthy, led the team to a strong 5-1 start (6-0 ATS). 

Rivers enters the regular season healthy and just as importantly, so too does his offensive line, which went through an insane FIVE centers a year ago. The running back position was upgraded in the offseason w/ the drafting of Melvin Gordon and bringing in Danny Woodhead for a change of pace. There were four receivers w/ 750+ yards last year, though one of them (TE Antonio Gates) will miss the first four games due to suspension. Still, a healthy Rivers w/ plenty of weapons should lead to good things. Especially facing a Lions' D that can't possibly be as good as last year.  The fact that Detrot was #1 against the run last year is basically rendered meaningless w/ Suh's departure. San Diego is 7-0 ATS in the month of September the L2 years.

Remember that this is a West Coast game for the Lions, which isn't always easy. They don't often play here & in fact prior to a Christmas Eve meeting (in Detroit) back in 2011, they last beat the Chargers all the way back in 1978! They have NEVER won in San Diego. With all due respect to Haloti Ngata, he is not an adequate replacement for Suh along the defensive line.  The offense, despite some of the big names, was shockingly average last year. The team was able to win five times when scoring 20 pts or less, which doesn't happen very often in today's NFL. They won't be able to get away w/ that here and I'll lay the points as the Chargers open the season w/ a big win.  8* San Diego

8* Texas (3:05 ET):  I was on Oakland yday as they knocked off the Rangers 5-3. Thankfully for Texas, all the other teams behind them (save for the Angels) didn't win either.  Despite some real "warning signs" (as in a -35 run differential), the Rangers would be the second Wild Card in the American League if the playoffs began today. I made note in yday's analysis of my leeriness of this team, but I'll somewhat surprisingly "veer courses" for Sunday as it's not like the Athletics can exactly be trusted either. They're just 3-7 in September and continue to be MLB's biggest money loser (-27.00 units) at the betting window for the season. The home team badly needs this one and I think A's starter Felix Doubront is due to lose.

In each of his last three starts, Doubront has watched the offense score at least 10 runs. That kind of production simply cannot be counted on for a start by start basis, so w/ him having allowed 4 ER in each of his last two, I'd say things are due to start going against him. Consider that before busting loose for five runs in fifth inning Saturday (only time they scored), the A's had been held scoreless by Rangers pitching for 16 consecutive innings. That's now 20 of the last 21 frames.  It's rare to see a pitcher w/ a 1.714 WHIP unbeaten over a three-start stretch, but that's what Doubront is. In eight starts this year, Doubront has yet to last seven innings. 

Oakland is 10-5 head to head vs. Texas this season, which actually makes sense when you consider the respective run differentials. Starter Chi-Chi Gonzalez hardly gives reason for optimism here if you're a Rangers fan, at least if you're looking at his numbers, but he is off a quality start opposite Hisashi Iwakuma his last time starting, which was back on August 18th.  Earlier I mentioned how Oakland was last in the league in net units, well, Texas is first (+23.00 units)! That's a huge swing and the key here as the home team picks up a much needed win. 8* Texas

9* Run Line Miami (1:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Marlins +1.5.  Washington finds itself in a very difficult position down the stretch run. Now 9.5 games back in the NL East, they no longer have a realistic chance of winning the division, especially after being swept the first place Mets earlier in the week.  More concerning, however, is that Matt Williams' (he's gone) club has continued to lose this weekend here in Miami, including a 2-0 shutout Saturday. Yes, I'm well aware that Max Scherzer is pitching today for the Nationals, but some good he's done as his team start record this year is just 14-14 & he's -9.1 units.  Of course, that's what the run line is for as well. Look for Miami to do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Nats' losing streak has now reached five straight and they're in danger of dropping to .500, which before the season seemed inconceivable. The fact is this team is an overhyped, overpriced mess.  At the plate, they had no answer yday for Jose Fernandez, managing only three hits for the game.  They have scored only one run in the two games here this weekend. Even Scherzer has not been immune to the team's woes; he's 0-3 his L7 starts w/ a 6.08 ERA and has allowed 3+ ER in all but one of them. Even the one time he didn't and the team won, he still allowed 11 hits in six innings. If the Nats' present situation wasn't bad enough already, now word comes in that closer Drew Storen is out for the year due to losing his temper w/ his locker.

Miami has a winning record head to head w/ Washington this year, going 8-6. Because they've usually been the underdog (weren't Saturday), they've made 4.8 units. The Nationals are now among the league's biggest money burners overall at -16.75 units.  Only Oakland, Cincinnati and Atlanta, all of whom are at least 20 games below .500 are worse.  Meanwhile, the Marlins, as I had anticipated at the All-Star Break, have moved into third place in the division and are quietly 8-2 in September. Today's starter Brad Hand is a bit of an issue, given his poor overall numbers, but considering the way the Nats are playing right now, all bets are off w/ them. 9* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

8* Run Line Cincinnati (1:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play where I'm taking the Reds +1.5.  Like Miami, here we have a home team in the underdog role (money line) that is gunning for a sweep. In this instance, the Reds actually picked up a pair of wins Saturday as Friday's suspended game (was tied 2-2 in the 8th) was completed (w/ Cincinnati winning 4-2) and then they came back to beat St. Louis again, by a score of 4-2. Throw in a shocking 11-0 result in Thursday's opener that went their way and this has been quite the series for Cincy. Perhaps some of the good fortune that all seemed to be going the Cardinals' way early in the season has turned on them as certainly they were not going to be able to maintain the ridiculous level of pitching they were getting.

Even before yday, St. Louis had been struggling. They've now dropped 8 of 10 overall & failed to score more than five runs in any of those contests. Obviously, that doesn't sound promising when being asked to lay the 1.5 runs. Again, entering yday, their own lineup was hitting a collective .197 over its L7 games while their opponents were at .317.  The Reds have scored 20 runs in three games against them and the Redbirds have hurt themselves w/ five errors. Starter Michael Wacha, who has been among the best pitchers to bet on in all of MLB this season, is off a poor showing where he matched a career-high by allowing six runs and did so in just four innings.  Wacha may have an outstanding 19-7 TSR (+9.4 units), but five of the wins have been of the one-run variety.

The Reds' rotation is going to set a record for innings from rookies and they'll add to that total w/ Raisel Iglesias toeing the rubber Sunday.  Admittedly, he struggled his last time out, giving up five runs in just three innings of work, his shortest outing to date. But that short outing could be a benefit (threw only 61 pitches). Keep in mind that in his three previous starts, Iglesias totaled a ridiculous 33 K's in 21 IP! Unfortunately, there were two times the offense failed to deliver any run support. But the offense has turned it around since that time and I'll throw out there the fact that no team has played more one-run games this season than has St. Louis (50).  8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)