10* Under Brazil/Belgium (2:00 ET): Belgium is obviously quite fortunate to even be here as they had to mount a furious rally (scored three times in final 25 minutes) to stun Japan 3-2 in the Round of 16. Now they're matched up w/ tournament favorite Brazil, so there will no "break" here. Unbeaten here in Russia, Selecao have not lost in their last 16 competitive matches. Belgium, ironically, has gone 22 straight matches w/o a defeat! So something will obviously have to give Friday afternoon on the pitch. Belgium has been the highest scoring team in the tournament, but something tells me we're in store for a more conservative, low-scoring affair here in the quarterfinals. Take the Under. 

While Belgium had to escape by the "skin of its teeth" vs. Japan (essentially winning on a walk-off), Brazil made it look pretty simple against Mexico, winning 2-0. That was the 19th time in the past 25 international matches they kept a clean sheet and they've allowed just one goal in the other six! So the Belgium scoring barrage likely stops here. Since drawing against Switzerland (1-1) in the opener, it's been three straight 2-0 victories for Neymar and company. I don't see them conceding more than one in 90 minutes here, so it's just a matter of Belgium holding them in relative check. 

That is possible, despite what we saw against Japan. Belgium has also kept two clean sheets in this tournament, though that was against overmatched Panama and an English side that clearly wasn't trying to win. Ironically, it was beating the Three Lions that resulted in Belgium getting this tougher quarterfinal draw while England has to be relishing its placement in the bottom half of the bracket. I look for more cautious play in this round (certainly compared to the Japan match) and thus a low-scoring 90 minutes. 10* Under Brazil/Belgium

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D'backs now welcome in the Padres after dropping five of six on the current homestand. They just lost two of three to the Cardinals (of course, winning the one where I did NOT take them!), including a frustrating 8-4 setback last night where the bullpen fell apart in the late innings (allowed 7 runs in the seventh/eighth combined). With the Dodgers now "hot on their heels" (0.5 games back in NL West), you have to think Arizona will turn things around at home sooner rather than later. A visit from the lowly Padres seems like a logical spot to start. I certainly don't need much reason to fade San Diego, but the fact they've dropped 13 of 16 and averaged just 3.0 rpg in the L10 only adds to my willingness.

What's sad about last night's result for Arizona is that they entered the game w/ the best bullpen ERA in all of MLB. I suspect what we saw vs. St. Louis was more "blip" than "trend" and the reliever will return to dominant form in this series. San Diego, as per usual, has been one of the weakest offensive teams in the league this year. They rank 26th or lower in runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging. Starting for the D'backs tonight will be Shelby Miller, who has been shaky in his first two starts since returning from the DL (11.42 ERA, 2.076 WHIP). But the "third time should be the charm" here against an opponents he's at least more familiar with.

I played against the Padres Wednesday afternoon as they dropped another one in Oakland, this time by a score of 4-2. They turn to Eric Laurer tonight, who was originally set to start yday before Luis Perdomo was called up. Though Laurer had a 2.76 ERA in six June starts, I feel that this is a case of just delaying the inevitable. He has a 5.08 ERA and 1.758 WHIP for the season (13 starts) and a 3-10 TSR. The road has been particularly unkind to him (1-6 TSR) and even with the decent numbers recently, he's still ended up w/ an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts. Though I don't think we'll be seeing Arizona get back to the level they were at during April, they should at least start to turn things around here at Chase Field. Meanwhile, San Diego is simply destined for another last place finish, so let's continue to fade them until further notice. 8* Arizona

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): Quite honestly, it's been a pretty lousy stretch of baseball recently in the Motor City. The Tigers have lost 13 of 15, including a pair in Chicago (Cubs) to start the week. They did take two in Toronto to start the month, but in terms of success, that's all they've had dating back to 6.18. But I anticipate things will be different this weekend, starting tonight, as they return home to host a last place Texas team. The Rangers also dropped a pair to start the week, at home to Houston, with last night's game going to extra innings. It's always tough to hit the road the day after an extra inning loss and I'm certainly not shy about fading a bad team in this situation. 

The Tigers have to be thrilled to be back home as they're just 15-29 on the road this year. Here at Comerica Park, they've gone a far more respectable 23-21 and that record was even better before they got swept by Oakland last week. Perhaps the Tiger most excited to be back home will be starter Matthew Boyd. Boyd hasn't exactly pitched "well" of late, turning in a 9.69 ERA and 1.923 WHIP his L3 starts (Tigers lost all three). But all of those were also road games. At home, Boyd has simply been a different pitcher this year w/ a 6-1 TSR to go along w/ a 2.61 ERA and 0.992 WHIP. He did put forth a quality outing his last time out, allowing just three runs on four hits (6 IP) vs. Toronto. He also had seven strikeouts, his most in a start since May 17th. I expect Boyd to pitch well here against a Texas lineup that hits a collective .229 on the road. 

Somehow, Rangers starter Yovani Gallardo has a 3-0 TSR despite and ERA of 6.12 and WHIP of 1.246. The key has been a ridiculous amt of run support w/ the Rangers scoring a total of 33 runs in those three games! But that's hardly a "blueprint for success" as a pitcher simply cannot count on that level of run support every time out. Tonight is the start of a 10-game road trip for the Rangers (will take them through the All-Star Break), so they better get used to playing on the road. Detroit is the more desperate side here though and w/ manager Ron Gardenhire expected back in the dugout tonight (left yday's game due to heat exhaustion), they should respond "in kind." 10* Detroit

8* Arizona (10:10 ET): A somewhat late start in the desert tonight, but the end result should be "worth the wait" for fans of the home team. The D'backs finally snapped a their losing skid here at home (at four games) last night w/ a 4-2 win last night. Both they and St. Louis came into this series having been swept over the weekend, Arizona by the Giants and St. Louis by Atlanta, both at home no less. This series is all even heading into tonight's rubber match on ESPN and I'll be siding w/ the D'backs in a game where it appears that it'll be a matchup of strong starting pitchers, but Pat Corbin has the clear edge in my eyes. 

Arizona has been very good on the run suppression side of things this season, giving up just 3.7 runs per game. That's the lowest number in the entire National League (only Houston better in all of MLB), thus offsetting the team's surprising subpar offensive numbers (29th in team batting average). But w/ Paul Goldschmidt having turned things around, the lineup should be headed for somewhat of a "midseasons renaissance." Sionce June 1st, Goldschmidt has a .390/.482/.780 slash line and has cut his number of strikeouts way down. Note that despite the low team batting average, Arizona is still 15th in MLB in runs scored. Tonight, they'll face Miles Mikolas, who is unbeaten (4-0) in eight road starts, but took a hard-luck loss (at home) his last time out. Mikolas is right w/ counterpart Corbin in terms of ERA, WHIP and WAR, but is far off the latter's pace in terms of strikeouts. Don't think that doesn't matter and, in fact, Mikolas had just ONE strikeout in 6 2/3 innings his last time out. 

Meanwhile, Corbin has allowed just 1 ER in his last 13 IP w/ a 17-1 KW ratio. He too was a victim of some "hard-luck" his last time out as he gave up only one run in 6 IP, but the D'backs still lost 2-1 to the Giants. Still, Corbin has a 3.06 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 17 starts this season and has obviously improved those numbers recently. St. Louis is surprisingly not a strong offensive club this year, ranking in the bottom third in all key categories. Corbin is "due" for some better run support moving forward and I see the D'backs winning this game rather handily. 8* Arizona 

6* LA Dodgers (7:10 ET): The Dodgers have really beat up on the Pirates this week, outscoring them 25-4 in the series so far (won 17-1 Monday), which I can't really say surprises me. Los Angeles was clearly underperforming for the first three months of the season, but now we (finally!) have signs that they're poised to take control of the NL West. They've got a +72 run differential, which is third best in the entire National League, so even though they wouldn't be a Wild Card team currently, look for the winning to continue. As for Pittsburgh, they've really fallen on hard times. Since opening the year at 23-16, they've dropped 29 of 46, including 9 of their last 13. A pitching change here (Musgrove to Holmes) means little to nothing and I'll lay the price w/o hesitation.

This Dodgers offense right now is on a ridiculous power surge. After homering a MLB-high 55 times in the month of June, they've hit 11 more HR's in the first three days of July, upping their season-leading total to 122. They homered SIX times yday, getting contributions from five different hitters, one of them Max Muncy, who had two. Muncy has transformed this lineup w/ 20 HR's and a 1.069 OPS in just 63 games (just 189 total AB's). That offensive display was obviously more than enough for Clayton Kershaw last night and anything similar should be enough for Rich Hill tonight. Hill, like the team, got off to a slow start here in 2018. But he has a 2.55 ERA and 0.962 WHIP his L3 starts, including an absolute gem LW vs. Colorado where he struck out 10 over 6 2/3 innings. Sadly, the Dodgers still lost the game (3-1), but I don't see that hard-luck following him to this easy matchup. 

Scheduled starter Joe Musgrove is headed to the DL w/ a finger infection, so the Pirates instead turn to Clay Holmes, who will be making his season debut (in a starting role) tonight. What an absolutely brutal spot for Holmes to be in, given the way the Dodgers are hitting right now. Also, the Pirates' bullpen has been overworked in this series, pitching eight of the 16 innings played (Dodgers didn't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth either game, obviously). It was just a matter of time before LA turned things around here at home and I'm "all about" jumping aboard this runaway train Wednesday night. 6* LA Dodgers

10* LA Angels (4:10 ET): I have a feeling that the Mariners and I will be "at odds" for the balance of the 2018 season, or at least until they inevitably start regressing. I'm confident in that (regressing) happening for all the reasons listed in yday's analysis. Yes, I was unsuccessful in taking the Angels last night as they fell here in Seattle, 4-1, their fourth loss in less than a month here at Safeco Field. That dates back to a sweep, which they obviously still have revenge for heading into today's game. Despite coming in on an eight-game win streak here, Seattle's 55-31 WL record is built squarely on the back of a preposterous 26-11 mark in one-run games (also 8-0 in extra innings). Those 26 one-run wins are the most by any team in the first 85 games of a season. Consider that the most one-run victories achieved by any team last season was 30! 

Despite now being 24 games over .500, the M's have only outscored opponents by 25 runs over the course of the season. Based on that run differential, you'd expect them to only have 46 wins. That's - easily - the largest gap between actual and expected wins in all of baseball. Honestly, it's pretty ridiculous that they're just one-half game back of the Astros, who have a MLB-best 172 run differential. Even after dropping 8 of their last 10 games, the Angels still have a run differential of +14, not great, but it's not that different from a Seattle team that is somehow 12 games ahead of them in the AL West standings. 

Wednesday's pitching matchup exemplifies the head-scratching positions of these two teams. Seattle starter Mike Leake comes in w/ a 13-4 team start record, but has a very similar ERA and WHIP compared to Angels counterpart Garrett Richards, despite the latter having a 5-6 TSR. Obviously, I'm looking for that to be rectified here. Seattle scored three runs in the bottom of the first yday and that held up. I don't see Richards (not announced as the starter until after the game last night) digging his team that kind of hole even though his last start was here at Safeco Field (on 6.13) and he lasted just two innings. Earlier in the season, Richards tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings and beat the Mariners. Leake having a 4.01 ERA and 1.208 WHIP is not something you'd expect from a pitcher w/ a 13-4 TSR. Seattle has won a season-high eight in a row, but seven of those came against last place teams Kansas City and Baltimore. Ohtani is back in the lineup for the Angels (went 0 for 4 yday, but I expect better today) and they should finally "get one over" on their AL West rival. 10* LA Angels

8* Oakland (4:05 ET): Though they ended up winning rather comfortably (6-2), the A's needed to rally last night against the Padres, scoring five of their runs in a decisive sixth inning. It was a game Oakland was outhit (9-8), but they still had more total bases (15-10) and improved to 3-0 this year vs. the lowly Padres. Similar to yday's winner on Milwaukee, we have a short turnaround between games here and that's usually "advantage home team," not that they even really need it against this week foe. The A's are starting to emerge as a real "surprise" in the AL West, having won 13 of 16 to get to eight games over .500. Though they've generally saved "their best work" for the road this season, they are 22-14 in day games and 6-2 vs. the National League.

For much of this season, Sean Manaea's name probably deserved to be on the list of "unluckiest" pitchers in all of baseball. But, lately, he's started to achieve the results befitting someone w/ a 0.966 WHIP in 17 starts. Getting the baseball for the A's on Wednesday, Manaea has delivered four straight quality starts and the team has won all four times. Overall, he was unbeaten in June and had 2.84 ERA, allowing only 10 runs in 31 2/3 innings. The competition hasn't always been fierce, but it won't be today either as San Diego comes in hitting just .229 on the road. The Padres are also just 2-7 vs. the American League this season, dropping them to 16-33 the L3 seasons in IL play. 

San Diego made a pitching change here, now turning to Luis Perdomo rather than Eric Lauer. Either way I was going w/ the A's here and the change is nothing more than an exercise in futility. Perdomo has an 8.36 ERA and 2.50 WHIP in four starts, terrible numbers, though he last started a game back in April. It's easy to see why the team wouldn't want to turn to him regularly as his last start saw him get hammered for nine runs in just three innings. He failed to make into the fifth inning in three of those four starts, thus was temporarily banished to Triple-A. He's pitched pretty well down on the farm, but his work at the big league level just hasn't impressed me (5.63 ERA vs. AL teams). San Diego simply is not a good team and I see the A's finishing off the season sweep. 8* Oakland

10* LA Angels (10:10 ET): Seattle is truly defying the "laws" of math this season w/ a 54-31 WL record built squarely on the back of a preposterous 26-11 mark in one-run games (also 8-0 in extra innings). That duality is often difficult, if not impossble, to sustain. To put the numbers in perspective, no team has ever produced 26 one-run victories in its first 85 games of the season. The most one-run victories any team had ALL of last season was Washington w/ 30! Despite being 23 games over .500 at this point, the Mariners have only outscored their opponents by 22 runs all season! Consider that they only trail Houston by one-half game in the AL West despite the Astros having a MLB-best +170 run differential! I've said it before & I'll reiterate it again here: Seattle is vastly overrated. The Angels have revenge for a prior sweep (suffered last month here at Safeco Field) and will exact it w/ a win in tonight's series opener. 

Now, the M's come into this series having won seven straight games. But those seven victories came at the expense of Baltimore and Kansas City, arguably the two worst teams in the entire league. This is their longest win streak of 2018 and it's opened an incredible eight-game edge (over Oakland) for the AL's second Wild Card spot. (An argument could be made that the five AL playoff teams are pretty obvious w/ half the season still remaining. But as good as M's "lot in life" currently looks, I remain highly skeptical for all the reasons listed above. The current seven-game win streak includes three one-run victories plus another that went to extras. 

Speaking of skeptical, Wade LeBlanc still being unbeaten through 11 starts certainly qualifies. Note LeBlanc is "only" 3-0, however. All three wins have come here at home, but his inability to get past the sixth inning (he's done that only once all season) is what has led to so many no-decisions for him. In the eight games where LeBlanc didn't factor into the decision, the Mariners are just 5-3 w/ four of the wins coming by ... (wait for it) ... one run. In his last two starts, LeBlanc has allowed a total of 10 runs, in just 10 2/3 IP, on 18 hits. He also has just four strikeouts. Fresh off taking two of three in Baltimore over the weekend, the Angels turn to Andrew Heaney and with their starting rotation in tatters, they could really use a strong outing from him tonight. He did not fare that well opposite LeBlanc in last month's series, but I can see this one going quite differently as three of his last five starts (one a CG one-hitter) have been very good. These teams are a lot closer in talent than the records suggest (Angels' run diff is +17!) and I'll call for the gap to be rectified some, starting tonight. 10* LA Angels

6* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): The Reds pulled another one out last night, scoring four runs in the bottom of the eighth to beat the White Sox, 5-3. It was their 12th win in the last 16 games, a nice run for a team that dug itself into a huge hole at the start of the season (opened 3-18!). But, as noted yday, the Reds (I had 'em!) have been better than a .500 team for interim manager Jim Riggleman. This recent run should continue tonight w/ another game against the lowly White Sox for many of the same reasons I specified yday. Chicago has been outscored by more than 100 runs this year (one of only four teams) and should show little life following last night's heartbreaker. Being w/o the DH does no favors to an offense already 24th in runs scored and 27th in OBP. Go w/ the Reds again.

The road has been quite unkind to the White Sox this year as they are just 13-28 outside Guaranteed Rate Field and many of the individual results have been ugly w/ them being outscored by nearly two full runs per game. Interleague play has also been unkind as they are now just 3-10 vs. the National League (Reds are 7-1 in IL play!). Having Lucas Giolito on the bump this evening does little to inspire confidence in an already bad team as well. Giolito has a 6.59 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 16 starts so far in 2018 and the team actually wasted one of his better ones last time out. He went 6 1/3 innings, giving up just one run on four hits, yet the White Sox still found a way to lose (in extra innings). Even though Giolito didn't give up many runs there, he still finished w/ a negative KW ratio of 3-4. 

It was a lucky win for the Reds last night w/ the late rally brought about by some inept Chicago fielding. But with that in the books, I look for the home team to roll tonight. Note they did lead 1-0 for the majority of the game last night. I expect Anthony DeSclafani to pitch well here as he has a 0.927 WHIP his L3 starts overall, even after allowing four runs his last time out. He's allowed just 11 hits total in those L3 starts (5 of them home runs!), but given up eight runs, which seems a little "unlucky" to me. But there are clear signs that the Reds are turning things around and I would not be the least bit surprised if this team escapes the NL Central basement (passing Pittsburgh) by season's end. 6* Cincinnati 

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yanks found themselves in a pretty tough spot last night. They were coming off a huge 11-1 win in the ESPN Sunday Nighter (over the rival Red Sox) and thus prone for a letdown. They curiously chose to make a pitching change, bumping Domingo German back a day in favor of Jonathan Loaisiga. That decision had me staying off the game entirely and sure enough, the Yanks lost 5-3 in 11 innings. Loaisiga giving up three runs in four innings certainly didn't help, though NY did rally. German will now start today and considering I was willing to back him yday, I'll be on him tonight as the Yanks look to bounce back. Atlanta has been one of the real pleasant surprises in baseball this season, but I don't see them winning B2B games at Yankee Stadium. 

German struggled his last time out, which was June 24th, giving up six runs in only three innings. (The team lost that game 7-6). But before that, he'd been outstanding, delivering in a 28-2 KW ratio in a three-start stretch that saw the Yanks go 3-0. All three starts were quality ones and while German has had a bit of an issue w/ the long-ball (you'll have that w/ the short fence in this park), I'll look for him to bounce back tonight. Him being pushed back a day had to do w/ him throwing last Wednesday (scoreless inning of relief). We know German will be backed by the best bullpen in all of baseball. I also expect him to get more run support tonight. Last night, the offense went 0 for 12 w/ RISP. That's a killer in an extra inning game. Let's not forget that the Yankees are 31-13 in the Bronx this season and averaging 5.6 rpg. 

Atlanta will send out Sean Newcomb, who is 8-2 in 16 starts this season. He's looked good of late, but that has as much to do w/ who the opponents were as anything else. Over his L3 starts, Newcomb has faced all last place teams - the Padres, Orioles and Reds. The last time he didn't face a cellar dweller was 6.10, on the road, and he allowed five runs in a loss to the Dodgers. This will be the strongest lineup he's faced all year, not to mention it has a DH. The Yankees have a massive edge in the bullpen in this matchup, which is why they were able to rally last night and that could very well prove to be the difference in this one. Consider that this team has lost only THREE series dating back to mid-April and has gone 45-19 its L64 games. They are the better team here and will bounce back from last night's tough loss. 8* NY Yankees

8* Milwaukee (4:10 ET): The Brewers dealt the Twins a terrible blow last night by rallying to win 6-5 in 10 innings (on a walk!). Minnesota led 5-1 after scoring four times in the top of the fifth. But they quickly gave up three themselves and it stayed 5-4 until the bottom of the ninth when the Brew Crew tied it up. I'm not a huge believer in "momentum" or a "carryover effect," but it's hard to ignore how challenging a spot this is going to be for the road team w/ such a quick turnaround. It'll be the Twins' eighth straight road game and as we've seen they're simply not very good away from home (15-26 overall). That includes a 3-11 mark when priced between +125 to +175 on the money line. Starter Jake Odorizzi has struggled all year as well, so I just don't see a path to victory for Minnesota in this one. 

Last time out, Odorizzi inexplicably threw six shutout innings of three-hit ball. Maybe it was because I was on him! Or, more likely, it had a lot to do w/ the opponent (White Sox) which is why I was on him and the Twins in the first place. Even with that strong outing, Odorizzi still owns a 7.10 ERA and 1.815 WHIP his L3 starts, so things have generally not been going well. Now, he did face Milwaukee earlier in the year and gave up only one run in 5+ innings, finishing w/ a season-best 10 K's. The Twins won that game, 3-1, but it's important to note that it took place at Target Field. As noted above, they have been a terrible road team as the current trip is off to a 1-6 start. They've allowed a total of 41 runs the L4 games alone. 

The Twins were just swept by the Cubs over the weekend. Milwaukee continues to lead the Cubs in the NL Central (by a single game entering Tuesday). I don't think for a second that the Brewers are a better team than the Cubs, but they're certainly "playoff worthy" at this point, confirmed by a +48 run differential (5th best in NL). While "only" 25-17 here at home this season, that includes a 9-3 mark in the -125 to -175 price range. Pitching has been a real strength for the Brew Crew in 2018, both on the front and back ends. Junior Guerra will get the nod this afternoon and he's got a 2.94 ERA and 1.184 WHIP at Miller Park this season. He's certainly deserving of better than a 4-5 record through 15 starts (8-7 TSR) as he's allowed more than 3 ER just three times. As we saw yday (five scoreless innings), the Brewers' bullpen is one of the best in baseball (top five in both ERA & opp BA). 8* Milwaukee

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): Both the Cards & D'backs come into this series having been swept over the weekend, each at home no less! St. Louis has now lost four in a row, the last three all against Atlanta, as they tumble into the realm of mediocrity in the Senior Circuit (four games back of the Wild Card teams). Arizona still leads the NL West, but by only 2.5 games over a Dodgers team that you know is going to eventually get hot. Getting to stay home I think is a huge edge for the D'backs here as I just can't see them dropping another one at Chase Field even though their record here hardly "knocks your socks off." This team is excellent though at the run suppression side of the ledger and St. Louis comes in having scored only 11 runs its last four games. 

For the year, the D'backs are allowing just 3.7 rpg. That's tops in the National League w/ only Houston (way out in front) ahead in the American League. What's really impressive about that distinction is the fact the starting rotation has largely been "in tatters" for most of this season. Robbie Ray returned last week though (after missing two months) and basically did not "skip a beat." Yes, the return outing came against sorry Miami, but Ray threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball. Remember that Ray won his final seven decisions LY and has only allowed more than 3 ER one time in '18, that being his season debut back in March. Despite just getting swept by the Giants, this Arizona team still won 19 games in June (tied for most in MLB) and has won 8 of its last 10 series. They had one bad stretch this year (lost 15 of 17 back in May), but that's basically it. 

Meanwhile, St. Louis has gone just 6-12 its last 18 games to fall to just two games above the Mendoza Line. The schedule hasn't exactly been kind either as Arizona will be the fourth straight division leader they've faced. That doesn't even include series against fellow NL playoff hopefuls, Philadelphia and Chicago. Sending Carlos Martinez to the mound has been problematic of late as Monday's starter has a 6.75 ERA in his five starts since returning from the DL. Control has been a massive issue for him w/ 43 walks in 72 2/3 IP. He pitched well his last time out, in Cleveland, but also was the beneficiary of a rare offensive explosion from his teammates, who jumped all over Corey Kluber in a performance that is looking more and more "random" by the day. I think breaking this one down is as simple as "Arizona is at home" and thus they're the side more likely to bounce back from getting swept over the weekend. 8* Arizona

8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): The Reds, if you can believe it, have been red hot of late. They came into the weekend having won 9 of 11 before dropping the first two games vs. Milwaukee, here at home. But they fought back to earn a split of that four-game series and have now won 11 of the last 15 games overall. Tonight marks the rare occasion where they are favored - significantly so - on the money line. That has as much to do w/ their recent winning ways as it does the opponent as the lowly White Sox come to town having dropped three of four. Chicago did avoid what would have been a sweep by winning Sunday in Texas, 10-5, but make no mistake about it - this is a very bad baseball team. They've been outscored by more than 100 runs so far this season and the road has been particularly unkind w/ their record being 12-27 (-2.1 rpg). I look for the Reds to keep rolling. 

There are a lot of Interleague series taking place this week. So it's best to check in with the respective records in that department and sure enough we find Cincy owning a 6-1 mark vs. the American League (surprising!) and Chicago just 3-9 vs. the National League. Remember that the White Sox lineup will be w/o the DH (NL park) the next three games, so an offense which already ranks 24th in runs scored and 27th in OBP will presumably be even weaker. That's good news here for Reds' starter Luis Castillo, who has a 2-0 TSR his L2 starts despite not really having his "best stuff." He did retire the first 11 batters that he saw last Wednesday at Atlanta (a strong offensive team) though.

Castillo will be opposed by veteran James Shields, who enjoyed somewhat of a personal "renaissance" in June. His last four starts have seen him allow just six runs total and he didn't give up any in the last one, going seven innings vs. Minnesota in what was probably his best start of the year. But, he's still only 3-8 in 17 starts this season (6-11 TSR) and has a 5.81 ERA on the road. Off a win, it's hard to trust these White Sox (10-18 in that role). Meanwhile, the Reds have actually been a .500 team (33-33) for interim skipper Jim Riggleman after starting the year at 3-15. They've obviously been playing really well of late and there's no problems w/ their offense, which has scored a total of 20 runs the L2 games. 8* Cincinnati

6* Belgium (2:00 ET): We had one shocker at the World Cup w/ hosts Russia stunning Spain (via penalty kicks). In fact, both of Sunday's games needed PK's to decide. Monday's slate figures to be more one-sided (at least according to the oddsmakers) and I have to agree. In the "nightcap" Belgium should have little difficulty beating Japan. After the Blue Samurai upended Colombia (played down a man) in the opener of the group stage, they haven't exactly looked impressive in advancing. They forced a 2-2 draw late vs. Senegal while then losing a totally uninspired effort, 1-0, to Poland (rested six of the Starting XI from Senegal match). Belgium is the clearly more talented side here and while you have to pay a price to prove that, it's worth it, IMO.

You have to remember that Japan came into the draw ranking only 61st in the world by FIFA. Only two other teams in the entire draw - Saudi Arabia (67th) and hosts Russia (70th) - came in lower. Obviously, there were many more teams NOT here in Russia ranked better. That's what made the opening match win vs. Colombia so surprising to me. Well, to be fair, you have to also note that Colombia played down a man virtually the entire game (early red card) plus top scorer James Rodriguez wasn't in the starting XI. Then came the 2-2 draw w/ Senegal where Keisuke Honda scored the equalizer in the 78th minute. The finale of the group stage was not w/o controversy as Japan essentially "conceded" the match to Poland once they fell behind. That was because Senegal (who was playing at the same time) was also down (to Colombia) and w/ the two teams having the same number of points (4), it was Japan set to advance due to "fair play," a terrible tiebreaking procedure that was just released for this WC. It boiled down to the fact that Japan had fewer yellow cards in the tournament (4) than did Senegal (6). For the final 30 minutes vs. Poland, Japan HC Nishino pulled over half his starting XI in an effort to have "fresh legs" here vs. Belgium. (They barely attacked the rest of the game) I don't think that will matter at all and it was a rather fruitless strategy.

Belgium won Group G w/ nine points, winning all three of its matches. Even if like Japan, it seemed they weren't too interested in winning the final one of the group stage. It was pretty well understood that the LOSER of that Belgium-England match was going to have a better draw in the Rd of 16 (because they'd avoid Brazil). But like Nishino's strategy vs. Poland, I think that's much ado about nothing. In the first two games, Belgium scored eight games, easily dispatching of Panama and Tunisia. With the win over England, they became the highest-scoring team in the tournament in the group stage. At least this Rd of 16 matchup is totally in their favor. Anything can happen after that. 6* Belgium

6* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): I was on Colorado Friday in the series opener (they won 3-1) and then they won again by that same score. So the Dodgers are facing the prospect of being swept at home by a division rival and that should have them quite motivated Sunday, especially given the price range. These teams met five times in June and the road team won all five (Dodgers began the month w/ a three-game sweep at Coors Field). It's interesting to note that while the teams are relatively close in the standings (LA 2.5 games up), their respective run differentials are "miles apart" w/ LA having outscored teams by 49 runs over the course of the season while Colorado is MINUS 44. That right there tells me what I already knew - the Dodgers remain the better team here.

Given that I was on them Friday, I wasn't too shocked to see the Rockies receive eight shutout innings from starter Tyler Anderson. But seeing German Marquez also go eight innings last night - and allow only two hits - was quite the stunner on this end. Marquez came into Saturday sporting a 5.53 ERA, third worst among National League qualifiers. Not too far ahead of him is Sunday's starter Chad Bettis, who has a 5.07 ERA in 16 starts, yet somehow has found a way to go 5-1 (9-7 TSR). Bettis has been particularly bad of late w/ an 8.10 ERA and 1.98 WHIP his L3 starts. Ironically, his best outing of the three was his last time out where he allowed just two runs to San Francisco. But the Rockies lost that game, 3-2. That was after he allowed eight runs vs. the Mets on 6.20, but was bailed out by the bats in a 10-8 victory. 

Colorado should feel pretty fortunate to be "sniffing" .500 given their -44 run differential. As per usual, their offense hasn't done much outside the favorable conditions of Coors Field (just 4.2 rpg) including both games of this series. I really like Ross Stripling facing them today, given the Dodgers' righty has a 1.95 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in six home starts this season (he's gone 4-0). I'm positively stunned that the team has a losing record here at Chavez Ravine this year (22-23) and overall they should be a lot better than four games above .500. The Rockies are just 10-19 in day games this season (includes the win yday), a record that is better than only a handful of teams (like Baltimore, the White Sox & Miami) in that situation. 6* LA Dodgers 

10* Cleveland (4:05 ET): The Indians are on the verge of being swept this weekend in Oakland, but are clearly the better side and should win Sunday. The Tribe are an interesting team to evaluate given the presumption that they can essentially "sleepwalk" their way to another AL Central pennant. I don't think any of the other four teams in the division are finishing w/ a winning record (certainly not the White Sox or Royals), so the path is going to be relatively easy this regular season. As uninspired as you might think they've been (just 44-37 so far), they've outscored their opponents by 54 runs thus far, which is a top eight run differential in the sport. Oakland is a surprise at 46-38 (higher win percentage than Cleveland!), and they've now won six in a row. But I look for that win streak to come to an end today. 

The current six-game run marks a season-best for the A's and they've beaten Cleveland twice thanks to allowing just three runs so far in the series. Yesterday saw Edwin Jackson earn his first victory of 2018 by pitching into the seventh inning of what ended up being a 7-2 win. Shockingly, Jackson has now won 10 straight decision vs. the Indians. It was a 2-0 game heading into the sixth inning yday and the A's didn't even have a baserunner until the fifth. The game changed dramatically in the sixth (A's scored three times), then it was put out of reach w/ four more in the home half of the eighth. It should be noted here that Oakland is still being outscored at home this season while batting a collective .223 here. Their offensive numbers are far better on the road. 

Today's pitching matchup features Mike Clevinger vs. Frankie Montas. The latter carries a 7.20 ERA his L3 starts (and 2.267 WHIP), but somehow has managed a 2-1 TSR during that stretch. He has a 5-1 TSR in six starts overall, but did allow six runs in just three innings his last time out (A's still managed to beat the lowly Tigers, 9-7). I don't see Montas holding the Indians' offense in check the same way his two predecessors did. As for Clevinger, he's been quite sharp his L4 starts, allowing a total of just six runs in 26 1/3 IP w/ 30 strikeouts. Yet, his team start record is only 2-2. Compare Clevinger's recent numbers to those of Montas, who has allowed 12 runs on 24 hits his L15 IP, and it's pretty clear which team has the edge in starting pitching this afternoon. I think it's pretty important to mention that the A's were basically just a .500 team before this win streak began. Back to .500 they'll likely go before too long. 10* Cleveland

8* Croatia (2:00 ET): This seems like an awfully low price on the favorite, given that they steamrolled their way to the top of Group D, winning all three matches and outscoring the competition 7-1. Most notably, The Blazers took down Argentina, 3-0. That was one of two clean sheets kept in the Group Stage, the other coming against Nigeria. Croatia finally conceded a goal in its last match, against Iceland, but not until the 76th minute and they answered quickly for a 2-1 victory. Their opponents in the Rd of 16 will be Denmark, who won once and drew twice in Group C. There was simply not a lot of scoring in their three matches as they found the back of the net twice and conceded only one goal. Their last match was an uninspired 0-0 draw w/ France. 

Getting the Rd of 16 was most definitely the goal for Croatia, but now that they're here (and played so well in the group stage), they have their eyes on a bigger prize. I think the bracket sets up quite well for them as the bottom half is far weaker than the top. (Remember they beat potential 2nd rd opponent Spain at Euro 2016). This is an extraordinarily talented side, particularly in the midfield (w/ Luka Modric), and the majority of the top players are used to this stage given how they play in the best leagues around the world. I think it's a very good sign that they still beat Iceland despite essentially going w/ an entirely new lineup (nine different players from the starting XI vs. Argentina). The reason they did that was they had already clinched a spot in the Rd of 16. 

Denmark has gone unbeaten in its last 18 competitive matches, but I don't like the Danes here. Personally, their route to the Round of 16 was nowhere near as impressive as Croatia's. The lone win came at the expense of Peru, 1-0. After that, came the two draws. Note that in all three matches, Denmark did NOT enjoy 50% possession of the ball. They managed just five shots against the French, only one of those actually requiring a save to be made. The streak of being unbeaten is impressive, but will come to an end here against a clearly superior side, that unlike France last week will actually be motivated. 8* Croatia

10* Under Russia/Spain (10:00 AM ET): It's been somewhat of a tumultous run for La Roja w/ the dismissal of their coach right before the World Cup began. And while the team did not lose during group play, it was hardly a dominant performance as their only win came at the expense of a somewhat impotent Iranian side, 1-0. They had to settle for draws against both Morocco (2-2) and rival Portugal (2-2) elsewhere. While Spain certainly deserves to be favored in this Round of 16 matchup w/ host Russia, I'm certainly not willing to lay the price here. 

Nor am I that enthused about a Russian side that was clearly exposed in its final match of the group stage, that being the wrong end of a 3-0 result against Uruguay. The tournament hosts certainly believed they had some "momentum" (there's that dreaded word again!) heading into that game as they were coming off blowouts of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, scoring eight goals in the process. (I did take them at 'plus money' vs. Egypt). But the step up in class proved to be too much as Uruguay asserted itself w/ the first goal 10 minutes in and never looked back in what was truly a one-sided affair. Remember that Russia came in with the lowest ranking of any side in this tournament according to FIFA (70th). Only three other sides were ranked below 50th and two have already been sent packing (one was Egypt). 

As bad as Russian form was vs. Uruguay, I at least expect them to give up fewer goals here. One of the three goals conceded was an "own-goal" and another came in the 90th minute w/ Russia down a man due to Igor Smolnikov getting two yellow cards in a 10-minute span. The first goal came on a free quick from Luis Suarez, which was a nice shot, but it should have been stopped by the goalkeeper. As for Russia's offensive attack, going from eight goals in the first two matches to nil in the final one tells you all you need to know about what happens when there's a step up in class. With adequate time to prepare, I believe Spain will tighten up on the backend here and we'll get a much more low-scoring affair than what we saw from these teams in the Group Stage. 10* Under Russia/Spain

8* Over Red Sox/Yankees (7:15 ET): As I thought they might, the Yankees' bats "woke up" last night in a return home to the Bronx. They scored eight runs in an impressive series opening win over the Red Sox, which was sorely needed after a bad road trip that saw them go 2-4 overall and get shutout multiple times. But by holding the Red Sox to just a single run, the game pushed on the O/U line of 9.0 and the Under is now an incredible 19-2-1 the Yankees' L22 games! The odds are NOT in NY's favor tonight facing Chris Sale, but I do like the Over to cash as the offense will perform better than expected, but I have my doubts over Sonny Gray.

The Yankees average 5.6 rpg at home. They may very well need to exceed that average to beat Sale and Boston tonight though as Gray has a 7.22 ERA and 1.871 WHIP here at Yankee Stadium. That's in seven starts and the Over has gone 5-2. The last time Gray started at home, he allowed four runs in five innings. He allowed four more his last time out, at Tampa Bay. The Boston offense is no "small potatoes" as they come in averaging 5.1 rpg for the season. You have to think they're likely to bounce back after being shutdown yday. Gray has not pitched well in the past vs. the Red Sox, not with the Yankees and not for his entire career, for that matter. He's 1-5 against them lifetime, including 0-3 wearing pinstripes w/ a 7.20 ERA. 

Sale is obviously a formidable challenge for the Yankees here, but note NY has the best record in all of MLB vs. left-handed starters. This series sets up well for them, being at home and facing all southpaws. Sale has pitched quite well in the past against the Yankees (1.74 ERA) and has been dominant his last four starts overall, allowing just four runs in 28 IP w/ 43 K's. But this Yankees' offense was "due" to wake up yday and I believe the resurgence will continue here, even if they don't end up winning this game. These teams are tied for the MLB lead in runs scored per game (5.1), so I don't think its unreasonable to expect a high-scoring game here. 8* Over Red Sox/Yankees

10* Cincinnati (4:10 ET): Though the NL Central finds the Brewers in first and Reds in last, it was the latter that came into this series as the hotter team (had won 9 of 10). But the Brew Crew has come to Great American Ballpark and so far has demonstrated why the teams are in their respective positions. They've won the first two games of the four game set by scores of 6-4 and 8-2, which makes it seven straight wins over Cincy overall. This afternoon, the Reds aim to snap that losing skid behind Tyler Mahle, who has pitched well of late (allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts). Milwaukee has been a losing proposition in day games while Cincinnati has basically played .500 ball under interim skipper Jim Riggleman. Go w/ the home team. 

Milwaukee's recent injury concerns were added to yesterday as Ryan Braun left the game w/ a stiff back. Fellow outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain were already out. So the team will heavily lean on Jhoulys Chacin today and that's not a likely winning proposition. I realize that another struggling starter in the rotation, Chase Anderson, was able to turn it around yday. But Chacin comes in sporting a 1.741 WHIP his L3 starts after getting knocked around for eight runs his last time out. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings vs. St. Louis and walked five. Chacin may own a 12-5 team start record, but his numbers (3.82 ERA, 1.337 WHIP) aren't really indicative of that kind of success. He's also winless in five career appearances at GAB (4.67 ERA). Earlier this year, he allowed four runs in 5 IP here.

I mentioned earlier that Reds starter Mahle has pitched well of late, allowing 3 ER or less in five consecutive starts. Well, the rookie is also unbeaten in the month of June w/ a 2.30 ERA. With the Brewers' lineup besieged by injuries, theoretically this should be a GREAT spot for Mahle. Earlier this season, he held them to just two runs in five innings. The team did lose Mahle's last start, 5-4 to Atlanta (which was their only defeat in a 10-game stretch), but before that had won his previous five starts. Take note that the Reds are a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they've dropped the first two games of a series. 10* Cincinnati

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): This seems like an awfully low price on the Cubs, no? After starting an eight-game losing skid w/ five straight losses, they've turned things around by winning three of the last four games. Yesterday afternoon marked a return to the "Friendly Confines" and they beat the Twins, 10-6. The difference was an Addison Russell grand slam in the fifth. That was one of FOUR Cubs' home runs in the game as they took full advantage of the wind blowing out at Wrigley. That's also now 21 runs they've scored total in the L2 games. Today, I look for the red hot Cubs bats to take advantage of a pitcher making his 2018 debut (Adalberto Meija) and continue their "offensive onslaught." 

The other story for the Cubs here is that Tyler Chatwood is making his return from the paternity list. Saturday's starter has not pitched since 6.19 when he limited the Dodgers to just one run in five innings. That's not a ton of time off, so I don't anticipate there being any problems. It's not like the Minnesota lineup is giving us any reason to fear it. They came into this series averaging just 2.6 runs per game over the last week while batting a collective .189. Remember, they lose the DH spot from the lineup in this series as well (NL park). I was actually a tad bit surprised to see the Twins be so competitive early on yday as it was a terrible spot playing in the afternoon and coming off a 13-inning game Thursday. Today, I simply expect them to "roll over." 

Mejia went 4-2 w/ a 2.74 ERA in 11 games (nine of those starts) for Triple-A Rochester this year. But he was 4-7 w/ a 4.50 ERA in 21 starts at the big league level LY for the Twins. This is hardly the most ideal spot to be called up. Overall, the Twins have now dropped six of eight and that's w/ six of those games coming against last place teams (Texas, White Sox). The Cubs might only be second in the NL Central, but they have the best run differential in the entire National League. They are also 12-5 vs. lefties this year and Mejia is a southpaw. Meija only a had 4.19 ERA in day games last season while Chatwood has posted a 3.19 ERA in the afternoon this season. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Run Line Colorado (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line only where I am taking the Rockies +1.5. The month of June has gone very differently for these two NL West clubs. Colorado is just 9-16 while Los Angeles is 17-7 (not to mention 27-11 since 5.17). Ironically, those disparate records began when the Dodgers swept the Rockies, at Coors Field, the first three days of the month. The Dodgers' bats took full advantage of the environment that Coors Field typically provides, scoring 33 runs in the three games. They've continued a torrid pace the rest of the month, hitting 53 home runs total. They need "just" five more in the next two days to tie a MLB-record for most HR's ever hit in a month.

Here at Chavez Ravine, I expect a much different series than what we saw earlier in the month at Coors. That said, the runs allowed side of the ledger has been a problem for these Dodgers, as we saw yday in an 11-5 loss to the Cubs. After Clayton Kershaw threw scoreless, the bullpen imploded, giving up seven runs in the seventh inning alone. With the bullpen already in tatters, there's an obvious problem here, and I don't see them getting the kind of start here from Rich Hill that they got yday from Kershaw. Hill has not pitched particularly well this season (5.30 ERA, 1.514 WHIP), particularly here at home where he has a 6.10 ERA and 1.742 WHIP (in four starts). Hill allowed four runs in five innings his last time out, though the Dodgers did beat the Mets, 8-7. Hill has never pitched well against Colorado, however, going 0-3 w/ a 7.52 ERA in four starts.

This year's Rockies have been a bit different than past editions as they've actually been a bit better on the road than at home. Tonight's starter Tyler Anderson is emblematic of this as he's unbeaten in his nine road starts (3-0) w/ a 6-3 TSR. He's delivered B2B quality starts away from home, allowing just 3 ER in 14 IP. Rockies' pitching has held opposing hitters to a .237 average outside of Coors this season. The team has some "momentum" (hate that word!) coming into this series after rallying to beat the Giants yday, 9-8, snapping a four-game losing streak in the process. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss defeat tonight and I expect victory. 8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5)

6* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Reds at +1.5. While Milwaukee is in first place in the NL Central, it was actually the last place Reds that came into this weekend series as the hotter team. Cincy had won 9 of its last 10 going into last night, but dropped the opener, 6-4, falling to 1-6 head to head w/ the Brew Crew this season. That lone win came in the season's first meeting and the last four losses have all come here at home. But buoyed by that recent stretch of winning, the Reds have been surprisingly decent under interim manager Jim Riggleman, basically playing .500 ball. They have revenge here and I don't think they'll do any worse than a one-run loss.

Milwaukee came into this series have dropped 6 of its last 10. Fortunately for them, it didn't really cost them in the division race, which they still lead by 2.5 games over the Cubs. I don't think for a second this team is better than the Cubs, though they very well could end up making the playoffs. Their road record is very good (23-16), especially here in Great American Ballpark. But, offensively, questions abound. They're just middle of the pack in most categories & are now likely to be w/o leadoff man Christian Yelich tonight, and possibly the remainder of the series. He left last night's game w/ tightness in his back. It didn't cost the team last night, but could be a significant factor the rest of the weekend. 

Both starting pitchers tonight have looked good recently. The Reds' Sal Romano (not to be confused w/ the Mad Men character of the same name) has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts w/ a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Now, he was a bit fortunate his last time out as he gave up five runs to the Cubs (in 5 IP), yet the team still won, 8-6. But there was nothing lucky about his two previous pitching performances as he gave up just one run in 15 IP, allowing just eight hits. He'll be opposed here by Chase Anderson, whose numbers over his L3 starts are also good (0.923 WHIP), but all of those were at home. Plus, one of them saw him allow six runs in a 10-9 loss to Philadelphia. He was lucky to beat the Reds back in May as he allowed four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 IP. Romano has made just one previous start against Milwaukee and allowed just two runs and four hits in 5 IP. Again, I feel the Reds win here or do no worse than a one-run loss. The run line helps nullify the fact the Brewers are 18-11 in one-run games (easily most one-run wins in NL) while the Reds are 6-14 (worst such record). 6* Run Line Cincinnati

8* LA Angels (7:05 ET): The Angels really burned me this week as I took them in all three games against the Red Sox - on the run line - and all three times they failed to come through. My rationale for staying so stubborn was that they had a prior three-game sweep (at the hands of the Red Sox) to avenge and I simply didn't think the gap between the two teams was as large as it apparently is. The Angels are now a combined 1-11 vs. the Yankees and Red Sox this season, but 40-30 against everyone else. The proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" in this next series as they visit an AL East team on the opposite end of the spectrum, that being Baltimore. The Angels swept the O's back in May, outscoring them 25-12. Normally, I might play the avenging team in this spot, but clearly that isn't always the "way to go." I feel the Angels will treat the Orioles the same way Boston treated them. 

Like the Angels, Baltimore comes into this weekend on a losing skid. The O's have lost five in a row. While the Angels have dropped six straight, the difference here is Baltimore has been bad all season. The Orioles have the worst record in all of baseball (23-57) and seem destined for a 100+ loss season. They've been outscored by 119 runs and somewhat incredibly have no wins against the rest of the American League here in June (0-12)! They were just swept by Seattle, dropping the final two games of the four-game set in extra innings. That has to be incredibly demoralizing for a team in the midst of such a lost season. I hardly think handing the baseball to David Hess tonight is likely to turn things around. He's posted an 11.25 ERA and 2.167 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in losses. The team is 0-5 his L5 starts as well.

The Angels counter w/ Felix Pena, who will be making his third big league start. He's yet to have a decision either way, posting a 4.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP. But he's allowed just 4 runs in 9 IP and has 12 strikeouts. A big key here is the price range as the Angels have gone an impressive 10-1 this season when priced as a road favorite of -125 to -175. That helps explain why they have outscored their opponents by nearly a full run per game on the road this season. 8* LA Angels

10* Over Winnipeg/Hamilton (7:00 ET): Both of these teams are coming off impressive Week 2 victories, both on the road no less. The Bombers took advantage of Montreal (many figure to do that this season), beating them 56-10 w/ a 589-168 edge in total yardage. It was a nice bounce back after dropping the opener to Edmonton, 33-30. Hamilton beat Edmonton LW, 38-21, rolling up 521 total yds in the process. That too was a bounce-back after the Ti-Cats lost in Week 1, 28-14. Obviously, neither side has much difficulty scoring, so I feel its quite reasonable to expect a high-scoring affair Friday night at Tim Horton's Field. Take the Over. 

As the final score illustrated, it was an absolute beatdown by the Blue Bombers LW at Molson. The big story of the game was the performance of rookie QB Chris Streveler, who went 18 of 22 for 196 yards and added 55 more on the ground. He had three touchdowns. By the way, those numbers were all from the FIRST HALF! It was 34-7 by halftime, effectively putting the "game to bed" after 30 minutes. Sure, they won't be as prolific in one half tonight, but I certainly believe they are capable of matching those numbers over the full course of the game. This is a team that has scored 86 pts in two games so far. Of course, they also gave up 33 in Week 1 and tonight will be a far greater test defensively than it was LW vs. the inept Als. 

Hamilton pivot Jeremiah Masoli is currently working on a streak of seven straight 300+ yard games that obviously dates back to last season. The big difference LW is that Masoli was backed by a run game that went for 196 yds. That was a huge increase over the 56 they gained on the ground vs. Calgary. Masoli should have no problems throwing the ball here against a Bombers defense that allowed 400 yds through the air to Edmonton. Running the ball might not come that easy. But in this, their home opener, the Ti-Cats should come out looking for a fast start. The road team won in a blowout in both meetings last season, 30-13 and 39-12, but here I look for a more competitive game where both sides put plenty of points on the board. 10* Over Winnipeg/Hamilton

analysis soon

8* Houston (7:10 ET): To me, there is no debate as to who is the best team in baseball. The reigning World Series Champion Astros have outscored their opponents by an incredible 174 run margin through 82 games and have been particularly devastating on the road where they've gone 29-11 and are outscoring teams by over THREE full runs per game. They come into this series in Tampa Bay having won 18 of 24 games in June as they just took two of three from Toronto (at home) to start the week. Now they face the Rays for a second time this month after taking two of three from them on the just completed 6-3 homestand. Just as was the case then, Tampa Bay is severely outclassed here. Go with the Astros. 

Now, since dropping two of three to Houston earlier in the month, the Rays have gotten hot. They come into this series as winners of five in a row, having swept both the Yankees and Nationals! They didn't allow a single run in either game against the Nats and have posted three shutouts during the win streak. In fact, they've allowed a total of seven runs across the five games, six of them coming in one game. The Rays' rotation, currently sporting a 22-inning scoreless streak, is unique in that they've been using relievers as starters (or as manager Kevin Cash calls them "openers") and asking them to go just a couple innings. The experiment has worked so far as the Rays have the lowest ERA in baseball over the last month. 

Ryne Stanek has perhaps been the most effective of these "openers" as he hasn't allowed a run in six of his seven tries. But consider he's never gone more than two innings and rarely faces an offense like the one he'll see tonight. Yes, he did hold the Astros scoreless for 1 2/3 innings in the previous series, but the Rays still lost 5-4. Houston averages more than six runs per game on the road, which should be more than enough for their traditional starter, Lance McCullers, who has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts. Consider that as a road favorite of -175 or more, the Astros are an outstanding 16-2 this season. They are also 26-9 when matched up w/ an opponent that has a losing record. 8* Houston

10* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Twins are in danger of being swept by the lowly White Sox, but fortunately for them Thursday's finale will be a day game against Lucas Giolito. That first component is key because the White Sox are a horrible 10-30 in day games this season, easily the worst such mark in either league. As for Giolito, the White Sox starter has really struggled this year, posting a 7.01 ERA and 1.596 WHIP in his 15 starts. He's been particularly bad at home where his ERA and WHIP are 9.91 and 1.872 respectively. It's not like the Twins' own starter for Thursday, Jake Odorizzi, has been much better. In fact, he has an 0-2 TSR against the White Sox already this season. But I believe the third time will be the charm today. 

Yesterday's win (6-1) got the White Sox run differential under -100, but they are still on a 100+ loss pace for the season, at least according to their run differential. Yesterday was the Sox third straight win overall, something we're unaccustomed to seeing from them. It matches a season-high, previously set at the end of April when they were playing another AL Central rival, Kansas City (who happens to be one of the few teams w/ a worse record). They have not swept a three-game series all season. Also rare is that Giolito is coming off a win in his last start. In it, he went a season-best seven innings, though he still gave up four runs. Control has been a huge issue for Giolito this season as he has nearly as many walks (47) as he does strikeouts (48). He's 1-1 against the Twins in 2018 w/ a 3.85 ERA.

While the White Sox are looking to achieve a season-best win streak, Minnesota is at its low-water mark for the season, now eight games below .500. They've dropped five of their last six overal. But in a similar position Sunday vs. Texas (looking to avoid a sweep), they won 2-0. Odorizzi may hardly seem like a "stopper," but his last start was his worst to date and I envision him bouncing back. One positive is that he does have 80 strikeouts in 79 2/3 innings. The Twins do have a poor road record, but its telling that they are still money line favorites in this spot. Over the L3 seasons, they are 11-5 when priced between -125 and -175 on the ML. 10* Minnesota

10* Tunisia (2:00 ET): Only pride is on the line in this final Group G match. Both Tunisia and Panama have been officially eliminated from going to the Round of 16, thanks to their respective losses to England and Belgium (who will duke it out for 1st place in the Group at the same time, a game neither side may want to win as it would mean a potential quarterfinal matchup w/ Brazil). But, back to these teams, the Round of 16 is now a complete afterthought and its just about one game. Note that if Tunisia did win here, it would be their first victory at the World Cup since 1978. I think they're poised to end the drought! 

Tunisia has been outscored by just four goals by England and Belgium while Panama has a -8 differential. That -8 goal diff is easily the worst in the tournament w/ no other side below -5. And keep in mind Panama has played just two games. They opened by losing 3-0 to Belgium, then 6-1 to England. Aside from the first half against Belgium, they've put up little resistance as well. In the first half vs. England, they conceded five times. It wasn't until the 78th minute of the second match, down 6-0, that Panama finally scored its first goal of this tournament. That's just embarrassing. Then again, they also failed to score in three of their final four tune-ups for Russia. So we're used to see the opponent keep a clean sheet against them.

Tunisia gave England all it could handle in its first game, eventually losing 2-1 on a stoppage time goal from Harry Kane. Prior to that, the game had been tied for 56 minutes of play. Granted, Tunisia was not nearly as competitive vs. Belgium (lost 5-2), but I think that can be chalked up to giving up a stoppage time goal right before the half that made it a 3-1 game. Something to consider is that Tunisia came into the World Cup ranked 21st in the world. Panama just seems "happy to be here" and a lousy defense will allow Tunisia to score multiple times here. 10* Tunisia

8* Japan +0 (10:00 AM ET): Note that I'm using the Asian Handicap here, meaning that in case of a draw, the result will be a 'push.' This is a nice way to "protect" ourselves in a situation where Japan, not Poland, should now be considered the favorite. Group H, already considered the most "wide open" when the draw was announced, quickly plunged into "choas" w/ the results of the first two matches here in Russia. Those results saw Japan stun Colombia and Senegal upend Poland. Japan didn't stop there though, earning itself a rather dramatic draw against Senegal and they are now the group leaders w/ four points. Poland, meanwhile, is winless and the only team in the group eliminated. So you can see how, from a motivational perspective, I'd side w/ Japan here. 

It wasn't supposed to be this way for Poland. Coming into the World Cup ranked #8 by FIFA, the Eagles were expected to advance past the Group Stage, led by Robert Lewandowski. But this isn't a deep team and that's why I played against them in the opener vs. Senegal (using the Asian Handicap). That was an ugly game and the sixth straight time Poland failed to win its first WC match. Then, a 3-0 loss to Colombia ensured a 32-year drought of not advancing past the Group Stage would continue. The lack of depth behind Lewandowski has been apparent in the first two games as they've scored just one goal (and it came late vs. Senegal and maybe shouldn't have counted) and had only six shots on goal. Having already been eliminated and off two brutal losses, I question this side's ability to find the adequate motivation on Thursday. 

Just like Poland at the bottom of Group H is a surprise, Japan at the top is equally (if not more) shocking. After stunning Colombia 2-1 in the opener, they pulled out a dramatic 2-2 draw vs. Senegal w/ Keisuke Honda coming off the bench to score in the 78th minute. All they need here is another draw and they're onto the Round of 16. But don't think for a second that the Samurai Blue will be satisfied w/ simply a draw here. This is an attacking group w/ plenty of experience. "I think we have to focus on getting three points rather than make calculations. We have four points after two games but we haven't accomplished anything yet," said captain Makoto Hasebe. They are the more motivated side here and I believe will be victorious here. 8* Japan

8* Under Colombia/Senegal (10:00 AM ET): The winner here (if there is one) is guaranteed to move onto the Round of 16 and could very well end up topping Group H. (Dependent on Japan result). If it's a draw, well, things get a bit more complicated. Senegal would advance for sure as they already have four points (tied w/ Japan) at 1-0-1. Colombia could also move on w/ a draw, if Japan were to lose to already eliminated Poland. Los Cafeteros put themselves behind the 8-ball by losing to Japan in the opener, but then had an impressive bounce back against Poland (won 3-0). My expectation here is for a low-scoring game and I'm taking the Under (which has yet to hit for either side in this World Cup). As you'll see, I think the number of goals scored & allowed for both sides is a tad bit misleading. 

Already holding a 1-0 lead in the 70th minute, Colombia struck two more times against Poland to pull away for an easy 3-0 win. That was a tough loss for me as I was on the Under 2.5 goals. Goalkeeper David Ospina was outstanding though, at one point stopping Poland star Lewandowski one on one and keeping a clean sheet for the match. As said in my analysis for that game, a big reason for Colombia conceding two goals to Japan was Carlos Sanchez drawing an automatic red card for a handball in the third minute. That caused them to play a man down almost the whole way. With a full XI on the pitch against Poland, we saw what they were capable of defensively. Top scorer James Rodriguez is also back, but at the same time midfielder Abel Aguilar has been ruled out for Thuursday w/ a left adductor injury. Not sure I see Los Cafeteros being able to score multiple times again here. 

Senegal has had a wild first two games. First, they beat Poland 2-1. Both goals though were fortunate. One was an "own-goal" courtesy of the opposition and then M'Baye Niang was able to re-enter the pitch amongst seemingly mass confusion for the second. The two goals vs. Japan were cleaner and they had far more shots on goal than they did vs. Poland. But in both games, Senegal has not had possession for 50 percent of the time. Needing just the draw to advance, don't be surprised to see them take a conservative approach here, leading to a low-scoring affair. 8* Under Colombia/Senegal

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Both the Pirates and Mets got off to strong starts this year, but in both cases that quickly dissapaited. The Buccos were 26-17 at one point, but have since lost 25 of 36 to fall five games below .500. The Mets infamously began 11-1 for 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, but have basically been a disaster ever since, losing 44 of 65 games. They snapped an ugly seven-game losing streak yday (took 10 innings) w/ a 4-3 win over Pittsburgh. While the Mets did win three in a row earlier in the month, June has been horrific with them losing 18 of 23 overall. That's very bad, but I believe they can make it two in a row tonight. They face a red hot pitcher tonight in Ivan Nova, but the Pirates' righty has been nowhere as effective on the road in 2018. 

Over his L3 starts, Nova is 2-0 w/ a 0.92 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. He threw eight shutout innings of three-hit ball his last time out, vs. Arizona. But the road has generally been unkind to Nova in 2018 as his ERA and WHIP are 5.10 and 1.488. Somehow, the team has still managed to go 5-3 in his eight road starts, but that record isn't sustainable if he continues to put up those kind of numbers. Coming into today, his ERA is below 4.00 for the first time since May 2nd, a span of nine starts. Ironically, the team did NOT win that last start against Arizona, instead losing 2-1 in extra innings. This is a team that has won only 1 of its previous 12 series, so things clearly are not going well. Over the past seven games, they are hitting just .181 and averaging 2.4 rpg 

The meaning of last night's win for the Mets goes beyond snapping a seven-game losing streak. Hours before the first pitch, they learned GM Sandy Alderson would be stepping down as his cancer has returned. It was reported as an emotional scene in the clubhouse and don't think that it didn't have an effect on the players, all of whom are on the team because of Alderson. Zach Wheeler starts tonight desperate for a turnaround. He has an 0-7 team start record at home this season and the team is 4-10 in his 14 starts overall. The team has won just one of his L10 outings, but given the recent offensive numbers from the Bucs listed above, this is a good spot for him. Note Wheeler hasn't necessarily pitched poorly during this terrible string of results. In fact, he's delivered five quality starts and only twice has he allowed more than four runs. He's almost always gone at least six innings as well. In a battle of struggling teams, I'll side w/ the one playing at home w/ more emotion. 10* NY Mets

8* Run Line LA Angels (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Angels +1.5. Simply put, the Red Sox have not been a good opponent for the Angels this season. In four games against the AL East heavyweights, the Halos have been outscored 36-4! That's an average score of 9-1, which was the final last night, ironically enough. Though the Red Sox are a very good team, I just don't believe the gap between these two teams is as sizable as what we've seen in the four head to head meetings this season. That's why I'm willing to say Los Angeles does no worse than a one-run loss here. Many are of the opinion that the five American League playoff teams could very well be set at this point (NY, Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Seattle). But if anyone is going to crash the "party," it will be the Angels.

Last night's game got off to a terrible start if you were rooting for the Angels as the first pitch from starter John Lamb was hit over the fence by Mookie Betts. It was 5-0 after the second inning and the game was basically over at that point. The Red Sox homered four times as the won for a fourth time in five games. They are 26-12 at Fenway this season. Sending Rick Porcello out to the mound tonight seems like it would keep things trending in a positive direction as he has a 0.947 WHIP his L3 starts overall. He just threw seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball his last start, which was against Minnesota. That was the fourth time in his last five starts that Porcello allowed 2 ER or less. But the nine-game winner has not pitched particularly well in the past against the Angels, going just 7-7 w/ a 5.51 ERA in 17 starts. 

Andrew Heaney will start for the Angels and I believe he'll be up for the challenge. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in 8 of his 13 starts this season, including the last one where he scattered nine hits over seven innings and gave up just one run. He started June w/ a CG one-hitter vs. Kansas City and also went eight innings (allowed just three runs) in his last road start, which came at Oakland on June 17th. Since April 27th, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of 11 starts. The Angels have been on a slide of late (lost four straight), but are due for better results and have been a better team on the road than at home. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* Switzerland (2:00 ET): Half of the round of 16 has been determined, now it's time for Group E to send two teams through. As soon as the draw was announced, Brazil was immediately annointed the favorite to win the Group. Barrring something shocking happening today (that "something" being a loss to Serbia), Selecao will be moving forward. But they are not guaranteed to win the Group as Switzerland played them to a 1-1 draw in the opener and can also finish w/ seven points if they are successful today. The Swiss will face a Costa Rica side that is 0-2 here in Russia and has not scored a goal. This should be an easy win for "La Nati" and goal differential matters here as it could ultimately determine who wins the Group, them or Brazil. 

After drawing w/ Brazil, it was an emotionally charged 2-1 win over favored Serbia for Switzerland. Two of the team's Albanian players made appeared to make gestures intimating the eagle on the flag of Albania, a country not officially recognized by Serbia. Now the only challenge is avoiding any kind of letdown against a side that should not present anywhere near the same challenge as the first two opponents. FIFA fined three Swiss players for making the gestures, but thankfully no suspensions were handed down. Having any points, let alone four, is a surprise coming into this final Group game where they now control their own destiny. I can't see them letting this golden opportunity slip away. 

Costa Rica was expected to place last in Group E and that is where they will presumably finish. As mentioned above, they have yet to even score, losing to Serbia 1-0 and Brazil 2-0. Incredibly, they played Brazil even for 90 minutes on Friday before giving up two stoppage goals. I think it will be incredibly difficult to "get over" that result. Other than pride, there is nothing left to play for now. And while it was 0-0 after 90 minutes vs. Brazil, Costa Rica was badly outshot in the game (23-4), including 9-0 on goal. Recent form has not been good for La Sele as they have five losses in their last six matches, four times being held w/o a goal. This team came to Russia w/ some of the longest odds in the entire tournament and I've seen nothing to make me think they can win here. 8* Switzerland

8* Atlanta (12:10 ET): After winning w/ them both Sunday (against Baltimore) and Monday (against Cincinnati), the Braves failed me last night by losing 5-3 to the Reds. It was a fairly even games. but the Reds were able to put a run on the board in five of the final six innings and that proved to be enough. Going a pitiful 1 for 10 w/ RISP did the Braves no favors and the Reds have now - surprisingly - won 8 of 9, the lone loss coming here on Monday. But in this Getaway Day matchup, I see the home team prevailing behind Sean Newcomb, who has been very effective this season, especially of late.

\Newcomb's 9-6 team start record won't "knock your socks off," but he's personally gone 8-2 w/ a 2.59 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in those 15 starts. As I just mentioned, he's been particularly effective of late, posting three very impressive starts here in June. Granted, two were against San Diego and the other Baltimore, but still, allowing just ONE in 19 IP (which is what he did in those three starts) is impressive, no matter who the opponent is. Last time out, he was the victim of a bad bullpen performance as he exited after seven innings having given up just one run on five hits. Unfortunately, at that point, the Braves still had not scored. But they did put three on the board (total) in the seventh/eighth innings, only for the bullpen to then implode and give up six in the top of the ninth. Atlanta actually responded w/ four of their own in the bottom half of the ninth, but would go onto lose 10-7 in 15 innings. A key stat here is that Newcomb is a perfect 6-0 this year when the team is off a loss! 

The Reds have basically been a .500 team under interim manager Jim Riggleman (30-31 overall) after a disastrous start under Bryan Pryce. But they haven't been great of late when Luis Castillo is on the mound. Wednesday's starter has a 1-4 TSR his L5 outings and has allowed 20 runs in 26 1/3 IP. He has a 6.50 ERA and 1.511 WHIP on the road this season w/ the team going 3-6 in 9 starts. Despite the loss yday, Atlanta remains a strong home team w/ a 23-16 record here at SunTrust Park. 8* Atlanta

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): In terms of wins and losses, these are actually two of the most underachieving teams in all of baseball. The Cubs and Dodgers have the best and third best run differentials in the entire National League, but - despite that - haven't won at the corresponding rate you'd expect. Both are in second place in the respective divisions, the Cubs trail Milwaukee by 2.5 games in the Central while the Dodgers are 1.5 gms back of Arizona in the West. However, as of this moment, they are trending in very different directions. LA took the series opener last night, 2-1, for their fourth straight win. At the same time, it was the Cubs' fifth consecutive setback. I look for those streak to continue tonight as I'll call for the Dodgers to win again. 

After a somewhat disastrous start to the season (they were dead last in net units), the Dodgers have really turned things around this month. Not only have they won five in a row, but they are 16-5 overall in June. Going back to May 17th, they've won 26 of 35 games. The home run ball has been a key weapon for them of late w/ 11 hit in the L4 games alone, increasing their total for the month to 47. The Cubs have the best record in all of baseball since the start of the 2015 season, but during that time they've gone just 2-8 here at Chavez Ravine. Their bullpen has been in poor form lately and the offense isn't exactly "getting it done" either. Over the L9 games, the Cubs have topped four runs only once. They've scored just 23 runs total. That certainly makes the margin of error quite slim for starter Jon Lester tonight. 

Now Lester has been sensational of late. He hasn't given up a single run in three of his previous four starts, the last one coming against these Dodgers. He tossed seven scoreless innings at Wrigley last Wednesday, but did so while striking out only one batter and walking three. I feel this Dodgers' lineup is poised to get to him this second go around. Note that all of the Dodgers' home runs the L2 games have come w/ the bases empty. They are due to start scoring more! Once again, Lester will be opposed by Ross Stripling, same as last Wednesday. Stripling certainly didn't pitch poorly last Wednesday as he gave up just three runs in six innings. He also had a 7-0 KW ratio. He's unbeaten (4-0) in five home starts this year w/ a 1.97 ERA and 0.812 WHIP. Plus, he'll be backed up by a red hot closer in Kenley Jansen, who has converted 18 straight save opportunities. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): It's Matt Harvey Da....oh wait, that's not a thing anymore. After basically being run out of New York (refused to accept a relief role), Harvey was welcomed in by a Cincinnati team desperate for arms. Harvey's 1st start w/ the Reds went well enough (four scoreless innings), but since then, it's been a series of middling results. He has a 4.79 ERA in 41 1/3 IP and only two of the eight starts have been quality. Now the Reds have actually played much better overall since Harvey's arrival, but a seven-game win streak (longest in six years!) was snapped yday as the Braves won 5-4, in 11 innings. I was on Atlanta, noting it was probably the right time to "sell high" on Cincy. The walkoff win last night did noting to change my mindset. Go w/ Atlanta again. 

This will actually be third straight day that I'm on the Braves. They beat Baltimore on Sunday, avoiding what would have been an embarrassing sweep, then came the win over the Reds last night. As noted in yday's analysis, this is a good home team. Their record is 23-14 at SunTrust Park. One player that has REALLY performed well here is tonight's starter Anibal Sanchez. He has a 3-0 TSR w/ a 2.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP. His last home start saw him toss seven scoreless innings against San Diego. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his seven starts overall this year. The Reds aren't a good road team (15-23 record) and their bats are due to cool off after the win streak was snapped. This is a good spot for Sanchez, IMO. 

Harvey has faced the Braves many times dating back to his time w/ the Mets. Typically, these experiences have NOT gone well. He has a 3-7 record in 13 starts w/ a 5.27 ERA. He faced them earlier this year (when he was still w/ the Mets) and allowed six runs in six innings. Even if the Braves don't take full advantage of facing Harvey as per usual, if this game is close in the late innings, it's to their advantage. Cincy ranks near the top of the league in blown leads while Atlanta's 141 runs scored in the seventh inning or later leads the National League. But given the fact Harvey is winless on the road in 2018 (0-4 in seven starts) w/ a 6.29 ERA and 1.486 WHIP, I expect the Braves to score early and often in this one. 8* Atlanta

10* Run Line LA Angels (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Angels +1.5. Now, admittedly, this is not the greatest of spots for the Halos. They had to play a make-up game yday ... and lost to the lowly Royals, 2-0. But they should certainly be motivated by that humiliating defeat, not to mention revenge as they look to exact it against a Red Sox team that swept them back in April. That series was not a good one for LA as they lost all three games - by a combined score of 27-3. Boston is riding high right now after taking two of three from LA's division rival Seattle over the weekend. But they are overpriced here, opening up some real value w/ the RL. The road team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Angels will have to face David Price tonight. But that sounds more dubious than it actually is. Price does own a 10-5 team start record, but his ERA (3.81) and WHIP (1.214) are positively mediocre. Those numbers were even worse prior to the last month or so. Last time out, Price gave up two home runs as the Red Sox lost 4-1 in Minnesota. That was the team's first loss w/ him on the bump since early May. Don't be surprised if they drop two in a row though as Price is just 6-7 lifetime vs. the Angels w/ 3.45 ERA. He also has a 4.01 ERA and 1.307 WHIP at home this year. That's not exactly awe-inspiring.

Because of injury, the Angels starting rotation is somewhat in shambles. So they have to call upon John Lamb for a third time. Lamb hasn't exactly lasted long in either of his first two starts (just 8 1/3 IP), but he's allowed only five runs. The Red Sox have never faced him, so that's an advantage for the pitcher. As good as Boston has been at home this year, the Angels have been equally as impressive on the road. Don't be fooled that the road record is "just" 21-17; the Angels are outscoring opponents by 1.4 rpg away from home this year. Only AL West rival Houston (who has been ridiculous on the road) has a better scoring differential on the road this season. Mike Trout loves to play here at Fenway as he's hit .371 in 16 career games here. Note that if you take out day games (where they're a MLB-best 20-5), the Red Sox record drops to "just" 32-22. 10* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* Argentina (2:00 ET): This is it. Do or die for La Albiceleste. As disappointing as the World Cup has been so far for mighty Argentina, there's still a pretty clear path out of the Group Stage and onto the Round of 16. Win here and have Croatia beat Iceland. That will give Messi and company four points, good enough for second place in Group D aka the so-called "Group of Death." Off the humiliating 3-0 loss to Croatia in their last match, I expect Argentina to be more motivated and more focused than they have been at any point in this visit to Russia. They have to. There's no other choice at this point.

Nigeria is off a surprising 2-0 win over Iceland, the same side Argentina drew 1-1. After an ugly showing in the opener vs. Croatia, the Super Eagles responded with the win thanks to the foot of Ahmed Musa, who scored both goals. Both Musa goals came in the 2H, ending a 100+ minute scoring drought for the African side. I still have my doubts though. You'll recall the goaltending issues I detailed in my play against them (and on Croatia) earlier. Recent form had not been good w/ zero wins in the previous five matches (before upsetting Iceland) and they were held w/o a goal three times. The final game of the Group Stage has not been kind to Nigeria in the past as they have just one win in their last five tries and that came all the way back in 1994.

Then there is the total and complete lack of success for the Super Eagles against South American sides. They have achieved zero points the L5 World Cup meetings w/ a South American side. Argentina has beaten them a total of four times in WC play. This has been a miserable experience for Messi, arguably the top player in the world, but he can re-write the narrative in the 90 minutes today. With their collective backs firmly against the wall, I expect Argentina to respond w/ a win today. 8* Argentina

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Cincinnati arrives in Atlanta fresh off a surprising four-game sweep of the Cubs. Yes, you read that correctly. It was their 1st four-game sweep of the Cubs since 1983! A seven-run seventh is what keyed Sunday's victory as the Reds were able to battle back from five down against the beleaguered Cubs' bullpen. The club has now won seven in a row overall, its longest win streak since 2012 (when they ripped off TEN in a row). Unfortunately for them though, I see said win streak coming to an end tonight. The Braves needed a win yday (I had 'em!) just to avoid a sweep at the hands of lowly Baltimore. But they've been a really good home team for most of this season, going 22-14 here. They are also #1 in net units (+15.6) overall, making them the best bet in the league. I'll take 'em again tonight!

Starting for the Reds tonight will be Tyler Mahle, who is unbeaten (3-0) w/ a 1.61 ERA in the month of June. The team has won his L5 starts. However, a 1.574 WHIP on the road "sticks out like a sore thumb" to me. Mahle has faced an incredibly weak stretch of opponents recently, including Detroit (who was w/o a DH), Kansas City, San Diego and Colorado twice. Earlier this season, he did have a season-high 11 K's against Atlanta, but that was at home. Out of 15 starts this season, only six have been quality ones. Note that the Reds last six games all were at home. I'm interested to see if they can keep it going on the road where they're just 15-22 this season. My guess is they won't. 

The Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz for this series opener, activating him off the 10-day disabled list. Foltynewicz had been pitching very well prior to the stint on the DL, posting a 0.95 ERA and 0.684 WHIP his L3 starts. Note he only missed one turn in the rotation as he last pitched on 6.12 vs. the Mets, whom he held scoreless for five innings. That made it seven straight starts allowing 2 ER or less for him as his ERA and WHIP over that stretch are a ridiculous 0.86 and 0.952. He's allowed just four runs total in 42 IP w/ 51 strikeouts. He did pitch in Cincinnati earlier in the year and while he lasted only 4 2/3 innings there, he allowed just two runs on three hits (did have four walks). The Reds won't stay hot for long and my view is Foltynewicz is the one that cools them off. 10* Atlanta 

8* Under Blue Jays/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston is #1 - by far - on the runs allowed side of the ledger this season. That helps explain why they are so far in front of the rest of the pack in run differential. They've outscored opponents by a whopping 169 runs to this point. Consider that only two other teams are above +100 and the next best is Boston at +112. They allow just 3.0 rpg for the season and it's difficult to see that number going up after tonight when Justin Verlander is on the mound. Verlander has arguably been the best pitcher in all of baseball this season, leading the American League in ERA, WHIP (0.78), opponents' batting average (.164) and OPS (.506). He has 130 strikeouts in 107 innings pitched. 

The last time Verlander pitched was last Tuesday and you shouldn't blame him for the Astros losing the game. Verlander certainly did his job, allowing just one run in 6 2/3 innings, but the team lost anyway, 2-1. Still, Verlander has not allowed more than three runs in any of his 16 starts this year and there's been only one time he failed to go at least six innings (that was his 2nd start of the year!). So we're looking at a streak of 14 straight quality starts right now. Here, he'll be facing a Toronto team that scored seven times yday in a win over the Angels, but they only average 4.3 rpg for the season on the road while batting a collective .229.

Giving the Blue Jays some hope here is the fact they'll be sending out their best pitcher, that being J.A. Happ. Over his L7 starts, Happ has a 2.35 ERA and 0.804 WHIP. He hasn't lost a decision durin that time and has 46 strikeouts in 46 innings pitched. He did allow four runs his last time out (allowed 2 HR's), but also went eight-plus innings, enabling his team to pull out the victory. Houston curiously averages FEWER runs per game at home than on the road and the drop off is shockingly significant. Whereas they average 6.2 rpg away from Minute Maid Park (by far the highest road average in all of MLB), they average only 4.2 rpg at home! A full two run per game drop off is eye-opening and certainly helps explain why the Under has cashed in over 60% of their home games. Really, given the pitching staff, you'd think that number would be even higher. With Verlander on the bump tonight, this will be a good old fashioned pitchers' duel. 8* Under Blue Jays/Astros

8* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers had a seven-game win streak snapped yday (were underdogs in Minnesota), but I'm still surprised to see the ML coming DOWN here as they host San Diego in the opener of a three-game set Monday. The Padres are not a team deserving of your respect. While there are worse teams out there, this one is simply not scoring many runs of late. They lost 3-2 yday (in 11 innings) to the Giants, which was their seventh loss in the last eight games. In those seven losses, they've scored all of 12 runs. They've scored just 18 total over the eight games. Year after year, the Padres are always one of the weakest offensive teams in the league & so far 2018 has been no different. They are 29th in slugging and 28th in OBP and even w/ a DH added to the lineup (AL park), I don't see them taking advantage. 

The Padres will also have to deal w/ Cole Hamels in this spot, making matters even more difficult. While his TSR is just 5-10 for the season (1-6 at home!), Hamels is still a very respectable starter. Over his L2 starts, he's allowed only three runs total and two were unearned. That's in 13 IP while allowing just nine hits. He leads the staff in all major categories and has a 2.81 ERA his L10 starts w/ 92 K's in 64 IP. He's gone at least six innings in eight straight starts. From his time spent in the National League, Hamels has faced San Diego many times and has usually dominated them. His career record against this opponent is 9-2 (w/ a 2.25 ERA) in 17 starts. That should continue here, given the Padres' offensive woes detailed above. 

San Diego will look to counter Hamels w/ Joey Lucchesi. Good luck w/ that. Lucchesi returned from a month-long stint on the DL to allow four runs last Wednesday, in only 1 2/3 innings. He hasn't started on the road since 4.22 in Arizona where he gave up four runs in five innings. He's allowed at least one home run in six straight starts, giving up nine total. The Padres have not fared well in Interleague Play recently, going 15-30 overall since the start of the 2016 season. That includes a 1-4 mark this year as they just dropped a pair of home games to Oakland last week. While the Rangers have struggled at home this year, they are 3-1 in the -125 to -175 price range. 8* Texas

10* Under Egypt/Saudi Arabia (10:00 AM ET): Only pride is on the line is this final Group A matchup as both Egypt and Saudi Arabia are looking to leave Russia w/ at least a win under their respective belt. Both sides have officially been eliminated from advancing to the Round of 16 w/ losses to Uruguay and Russia. Quite frankly, this World Cup hasn't been a real positive experience for either. Saudi Arabia has yet to score a goal (lost 5-0 to Russia & 1-0 to Uruguay) while Egypt lost to Uruguay by that same 1-0 score (giving up the goal in the 89th minute) before getting clobbered 3-1 Russia. Things are only getting worse now for the Pharaohs as star striker Mohamed Salah is reportedly considering quitting the team. 

Egypt's first World Cup appearance since 1990 will be a brief one and if the rumors are true concerning Salah, it may be a long time until we see them on this stage again. Salah was responsible for 71 percent of his team's goals during qualifying and has their only goal here in Russia. But despite scoring against the tournament hosts, he appeared bothered by the lingering shoulder issues that kept him out of the opener against Uruguay. He's still expected to play Monday, but if he didn't, I'd feel even stronger. Still, even w/ him, I'm confident as you have a star player injured - both mentally and physically. As I said in past analysis (played against Egypt in both previous matches), no one else on this squad is a legit threat to score. 

Of course, Salah's contribution to this tournament is more than any striker on KSA has given. They are one of four teams w/o a goal, the others being Morocco, Peru and Costa Rica. Not sure I see them breaking through here either as they've had very few chances in either game. With that Russia result, the wheels came off late for KSA when they conceded two goals in extra time. Yes, they still gave up three otherwise, but they were obviously more stout against Uruguay. This should be a pretty ugly game as neither side has nothing to play for and neither was very good to begin with. 10* Under Egypt/Saudi Arabia

There's been a pitching change here w/ Oakland now turning to Edwin Jackson, rather than Blackburn. Play is still valid! 

8* Under A's/White Sox (2:10 ET): Welp. This is it. The final meeting of the season between Oakland and Chicago, thus making it the final chance we have to see them produce an Under. Six times previous to this they've met and all six games have gone Over the total. In fact, going back to last season, it's been NINE consecutive Overs. I'll call for that streak to end today, however, as the White Sox are not to be feared offensively (just 2.9 rpg scored over the last week w/ a .213 average). Meanwhile, Oakland's hot hitting on the road I believe is due to subside moving forward. Take the Under. 

Over the past week, the A's are averaging 7.1 runs per game. For the season, they average 5.6 on the road! That's all pretty impressive, but I don't see it continuing. They've largely been powered by the home run ball of late (19 in last 10 games!), but the pitcher they'll faced today (Carlos Rodon) isn't known for giving up many. This will be just the 4th start of the season for Rodon, who is off his weakest effort to date. But he was also facing Cleveland for a second straight time when he gave up four runs (did not allow a HR though). The White Sox are 0-3 in Rodon's three starts, but that's more emblematic of what a bad team they are, not the individual. Over its L7 games, Chicago has been held to three runs or fewer five times. 

Oakland will be Jackson's 13th team, tying a MLB record. He was originally set to start tomorrow in Detroit, but obviously "plans change." After spending time in Washington's farm system to start the year, Jackson opted out and joined Oakland's. He spent time at Triple-A Nashville, making three starts there and averaged more than a strikeout per inning. With the rotation is injury-riddled, Oakland's bullpen has no issues right now as closer Blake Treinen has converted 14 straight save opportunities and has a 0.73 ERA his L21 appearances. It's highly unlikely that Chicago will get off to such a fast start again today (scored only one run over the final eight innings yday, after the five-run 1st), so expect this to be a low-scoring game. 8* Under A's/White Sox

10* Under Colombia/Poland (2:00 ET): Group H was certainly not supposed to play out like this. When the draw was revealed, most banked on both Colombia and Poland coming into this second match sporting 1-0 records and looking to seize control of the table. But what's that the say about the "best laid plans?" Instead, both dropped their first game and now will be fighting for their respective lives come Sunday afternoon. Colombia, battling a ton of turmoil, lost 2-1 to Japan. Poland lost to Senegal 2-1 w/ the difference there being a controversial goal that HC Adam Nawalka called "kind of curious" as Senegal's M'Baye Niang was able to re-enter the pitch amongst seemingly mass confusion. Both teams will be tight here (neither can afford another loss). Thus, I'm on the Under. 

This is the sixth straight World Cup where Poland failed to win its first match. This one, however, had to be the most painful for a side that came in ranked #8 in the world. Really, all three goals in the Senegal match were clouded in a bit of controversy. The first was an "own-goal" that simply should not have happened. Poland defender Thiago Cionek stuck out a leg and deflected what was an errant shot into his own net in the 37th minute. It certainly didn't help that goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny played the ball so recklessly as well. Then came the aforementioned second Senegal goal, which was the source of so much confusion and choas. Poland's only goal didn't come until the 86th minute and was a strange situation as well as didn't seem like Senegal was ready. Truthfully, it was a terrible match (at least I had Senegal!) w/ little action, few chances and there definitely should have been fewer goals scored

While Poland was left to rue the few chances its top scorer Robert Lewandowski got against Senegal, Colombia's best player (James Rodriguez) didn't even get on the pitch until the 59th minute against Japan as a late substitute. Questions remain over Rodriguez's fitness (muscle fatigue) and that's a big blow for this side considering what he did four years ago in Brasil (led all players w/ six goals in five games) and qualifying leading up to Russia (scored six more goals). In addition to being w/o Rodriguez, Colombia found itself even more behind the proverbial "8-ball" vs. Japan when Carlos Sanchez received a red card in the opening three minutes and they had to play down a man the rest of the way. (Sadly, Sanchez has received death threats over this). With a full XI on the pitch here, Colombia won't be giving up multiple goals again, I presume. 10* Under Colombia/Poland 

10* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): The host Pirates are on the verge of suffering the indignity of being swept in a four-game series in their own park, but I feel they've got enough going for them today to avoid that fate. Four-game sweeps are quite rare (if you're the home team), so the Pirates should be supremely motivated heading into Sunday. Clearly, the first three games of the series have not gone well w/ the Bucs losing by scores of 9-3, 2-1 (extra innings) and 7-2. It will certainly take more runs than that here, but I'm pretty confident that's what we'll get. Two rain delays did the Bucs no favors yday (after falling behind 5-0) nor did facing Zack Greinke, who kept them in check. Somewhat surprisingly though is the fact the Pirates came into this series as the slightly better offensive ballclub. 

Starting Sunday for Pittsburgh will be Trevor Williams. He's off one of his better starts of the season as last Monday saw him pitch seven innings of scoreless ball. He allowed only ONE hit while also tying a season-high w/ seven strikeouts. Note that was the last time the Pirates won. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Williams that day is how small his margin for error was (Pirates won only 1-0) and he got the job done. He should do well here facing a lineup that is dead last in all of MLB in batting average (.227). Given that average, it's a real wonder that Arizona has been able to average 4.5 runs per game (13th in MLB). Williams is a righty too, and the D'backs have a lower team BA vs. righties than they do lefties. 

Arizona will turn to Clay Buchholz here. The good news is that Buchholz has pitched VERY well on the road this season. In three starts, he's posted a 2.12 ERA and 0.765 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .180 average. The bad news is that those efforts have been wasted as the team has gone 0-3 in those three starts. His last time out was at home, but a similar story as he allowed just 1 run in 5 2/3 IP and left w/ a 3-1 lead, only for the bullpen to blow the game. That made it three straight no-decisions for the right-hander, one of them coming agianst these Pirates when he allowed six runs (four unearned) - yet the D'backs still won. He started opposite Williams that day, but this time Buchholz won't be as lucky. I think wasting those previous efforts will come back to haunt Arizona as I don't anticipate Buchholz being that sharp moving forward. The Pirates offense has gotten a bit of a boost from rookie Austin Meadows (5 for 13 in this series) and that should start to translate to some better results. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Atlanta (1:35 ET): I think it's fair to say that the Braves currently qualify as the National League's biggest surprise for 2018. But, surprisingly a weekend series at home w/ lowly Baltimore has not gone well. The Braves have dropped the first two games, by scores of 10-7 and 7-5. I feel that both results are a little misleading in the sense that a first inning grand slam sealed their fate yesterday in a game where they actually outhit the O's 12-7. Friday's game was a 15-inning affair that saw the Braves bullpen allow six runs in the top of the ninth (did answer w/ four of their own to force extras). I just can't see them getting swept at home by a bad Baltimore team, thus the decision to lay the price is a relatively easy one on this end. 

The Orioles are one of four teams in baseball that may very well end up losing 100+ games. Even w/ the two wins in Atlanta, they are 23-52 for the season (.307), just one-half game ahead of KC for the worst record in all of baseball. The numbers have been pretty frightening on the road where they're being outscored by 1.8 rpg. Going into yday, they were just 6-15 off a win this season. Not surprisingly, they are just 2-7 as a road underdog of +175 or higher on the money line. (This is the highest they've been on the ML in this series, if the line holds). Having David Hess start this game probably won't help, at least based on recent efforts, as he has a 7.07 ERA and 1.714 WHIP over his last three starts. He's allowed five runs in B2B efforts, lasting only eight innings total. An offense that ranks 27th or lower in runs scored, batting average, slugging and OBP should (theoretically) be facing an even larger handicap than usual here as they are w/o the DH (NL park). Baltimore's pitching has been just as bad as the hitting this year as the staff is 30th (ie last) in WHIP and opponents' batting average. 

The Braves had been a good home team coming into this series (21-12 overall), making the results of the last two days all the more confounding. They are 17-8 in day games this season (while Baltimore is just 9-20), so perhaps that helps make the difference here. Veteran Brandon McCarthy will toe the rubber for the home team today, hoping to reverse his own individual results of late. He has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, but also a 1.163 WHIP during that time, so he hasn't pitched that poorly. McCarthy allowed just two runs his last time out (in 5 2/3 IP), but that wasn't enough in yet another instance of the bullpen melting down. Despite now referencing two bad performances over the last week, the Braves' pen has typically performed okay this season at SunTrust Park w/ a 3.85 ERA. The number of blown saves (6) here has been an issue, but not today. Baltimore has not swept a series all season. 8* Atlanta

9* Over Yankees/Rays (4:10 ET): Wouldn't you know, the Yankees and Rays played ANOTHER low-scoring game last night (Rays won 2-1). That's been pretty "par for the course" for both AL East sides of late. Tampa Bay is 9-1 Under its L10 games while the Yankees have been even more profitable to bet that way, going 16-1 Under their L17 games! The teams are also 5-0 Under against each other this month. I think we're due for a "market correction" when it comes to that trend as certainly, we should expect more offense from the Yankees lineup this afternoon. This is a team still averaging about 5.0 rpg for the season. The Rays have been scuffling at the plate of late, but should likewise improve offensively as they too will be facing a significantly weaker pitcher compared to last night. Take the Over. 

Tampa Bay had 10 hits yday, but could only score two runs due in large part to Kevin Kiermaier going 0 for 4. Kiermaier is 0 for 13 since his return from the DL, but it's only a matter of time. All told, the Rays left 11 runners on base last night as they ent 2 for 9 w/ RISP. As stated above, they should find greater success at the plate today as they face Sonny Gray. While Gray has been a much better pitcher in the month of June, he also had a 6.67 ERA and 5.16 ERA in May. So it's likely only a matter of time before he regresses. Gray has a 4.89 ERA and 1.48 WHIP for the season (14 starts) and while he's generally been much better on the road, Tampa Bay is a team that has given him trouble recently. In four starts against them last season, Gray's ERA was 4.32. 

Rays' "starter" Wilmer Font has seen his season trajectory closely mirror that of Gray as he's seen a big improvement this month. But note how the word starter was in quotation marks. This is yet another instance of TB skipper Kevin Cash electing to go w/ what he calls an "opener," that being a reliever to start the game and go only a few innings. This approach worked yday as six Rays' pitchers limited the Yankees to just five hits. But I don't see it working agian today. The Yanks just saw him for 4+ innings on Sunday, so now they're more familiar. Font had a 11.68 ERA in April and 10.80 ERA in May before drastically reducing that number here in June. But like Gray, he's due to regress in a major way. At the same time, both offenses are ready to explode one of these days. Why not today? 9* Over Yankees/Rays

10* Under A's/White Sox (2:10 ET): Including both games of yday's doubleheader (which the teams split), the A's and White Sox have now gone Over all five times they've played this season. Going back to last year, the Over has cashed in eight straight head to head meetings. I'll call for that streak to come to an end this afternoon, however, as we've got two starters likely to bounce back from rough outings and take advantage of fatigued lineups. The good news for a Chicago team that hasn't had much of it in 2018 is that they not only won a game on Friday (snapped seven-game losing skid), but also finally held Oakland to fewer than eight runs for the first time. This will be a lower-scoring game than expected. Take the Under. 

Oakland's starter for Saturday, Daniel Mengden, has been absolutely atrocious of late. He's given up eight home runs his L3 starts, a stretch that has seen him produce an unsightly 10.05 ERA. However, be aware that before this rough stretch, he had won four straight outings while delivering a 1.20 ERA. Not sure we'll see him regain that same form necessarily, but facing the White Sox certainly helps. Chicago scored all of 16 runs during its seven-game slide going into yday and in the first game they scored only two runs. The Game 2 victory marked the 1st time since June 5th (!) that the White Sox topped five runs in a game. Over their L18 games, Chicago has been held to three runs or fewer 13 times. This is an offense that ranks in the bottom four in all of baseball in both runs scored and on base percentage. It wouldn't be the first time Mengden has held the White Sox in check this season, if he does so today. Back in April, he limited them to one run on six hits in eight innings of work. That was the beginning of a nine-start stretch for Mengden where he allowed 3 ER or fewer eight times! His WHIP is still 1.14 for the season, despite the rough June.

Dylan Covey starts here for the home side. He has the lowest ERA - by far - in the White Sox starting rotation at 2.23. He did not perform well in Cleveland Monday, but that was after allowing only three runs total (one unearned) in his previous three outings. This will be Covey's eighth start of the season and his last time out was the 1st time he allowed more than two earned runs. Unearned runs (he's been charged w/ EIGHT!) have been a problem for Covey this season, but even so, he's still 4-0 Under in the month of June. Here at Guaranteed Rate Field, Covey is a perfect 3-0 in three starts w/ a 1.42 ERA. 10* Under A's/White Sox

6* Germany (2:00 ET): There have been many shockers so far at this year's World Cup, but perhaps all pale in comparison to Germany dropping its first match, 1-0 to Mexico. Now there's a real sense of urgency for Die Mannschaft, the reigning World Cup champs, who are desperate for a win Saturday against Sweden. Given the stakes and the gap in talent here, I was positively stunned that the favorites were available at such an affordable price here. Go with Germany in a must win! 

It has been 80 years since a German team failed to make it through the Group Stage at a World Cup. So history certainly favors the favorite here. While you can certainly say Mexico outclassed and outhustled them Sunday, Joachim Loew's side had significant edges both in possession and shots on goal. Let's also be sure to recall that when it came to World Cup qualifying, Low's side was impeccable as they won all 10 matches, conceding only four goals in the process. Let us also not forget they won the Confederations Cup last year (arguably w/ a "B-squad").

Sweden won its first match, but they were also fortunate to be taking on a rather anemic South Korean side that could muster little, if anything. Truthfully, South Korea's only real chance to score came in the 92nd minute. They managed just five shots for the game, none on goal. This will be a huge step up in class for The Blue-Yellow, who are still searching for the replacement to the retired Zlatan Ibrahimovic among other departed veterans. Unlike the first match, Sweden's top-end talent will be severely outclassed here. I'm all in on the favorites in this one. 6* Germany

10* Mexico (11:00 ET): Through the first round of group play, it would be difficult to argue that any side had a more impressive performance than the one put forth by Mexico. El Tri stunned heavily favored Germany (making me look foolish in the process!), 1-0, in a real gutty performance. Now comes having to avoid the obvious letdown spot against South Korea. That shouldn't be a problem though as South Korea was blanked 1-0 in its own opening match (by Sweden) and is a team w/ minimal experience at the highest level. Most of the individual players don't play abroad. Yes, the country has qualified for every WC since 1986. But they are outgunned here as was evident by a 4-0 loss the last time these sides took the field against one another (back in '14). Back Mexico. 

Germany wasn't only the favorite to take Group F. The defending WC champs were favored to repeat here in Russia. So beating them was no small accomplishment for El Tri. To me, the only possible enemy would be themselves as they have to avoid that letdown. They were outshot 2:1 by Germany and had possession of the ball less than 40 percent of the time. But those issues should not persist against this particular opponent. In its opening game, South Korea didn't have many chances and had only five shots, none requiring a save by the goaltender! The only real scoring chance they had came in added time, in the 92nd minute.

South Korea is winless in six straight WC matches, a streak that dates back to 2010. Recent form is hardly impressive either as they are 1-3-1 their L5 matches having been held w/o a goal in the last two. They hardly impresed during Asian qualifying, basically getting here due to the process of elimination. Despite conceding just the one goal to Sweden, there are major issues defensively for the Taeguk Warriors and expect Mexico to have a field day w/ set pieces Saturday. El Tri is sound defensively (as we saw vs. Germany) and by winning that opening match, they now seem to have a clear path to the Round of 16. 10* Mexico 

6* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The first place Indians are finally starting to pick up some steam, opening up a five-game lead in the AL Central. Of course, it certainly helps when you play the White Sox, whom they just swept - in a three-game series - to start the week (outscoring them 24-5 in the process!). I've said it before and I'll reiterate it again here: The Tribe is definitely going to win the division. It's only a matter of how hard they want to make it on themselves. I don't think any of the other four teams are going to finish w/ a winning record. The Indians' closest competition is Detroit (five games back) and that's who they'll welcome in this weekend. They're already 7-3 head to head w/ the Tigers in '18 and 20-9 the L29 meetings as well. Add another win after tonight. 

Detroit's lone visit to Progressive Field this year didn't exactly go well as they were swept in a four-game series. The team is now 0-6 in the state of Ohio this season after dropping a pair down I-71 in Cincinnati to start the week. (I had the Reds both games!). That's certainly not what the Tigers were hoping for, after coming into the week just 2.5 gms back of the Indians. They have been outscored by 29 runs this year, so the losing record doesn't surprise me and they've been particularly bad on the road (13-22 record). Had they not swept the White Sox last weekend (in Chicago), that road record would look even worse. As I said in my analysis for the series w/ the Reds, the Tigers only average 3.6 rpg away from home. That simply won't cut it against a Cleveland team averaging an impressive 5.8 rpg at home this season (#1 in all of MLB!). 

Tonight's pitching matchup features a starter that has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts (Detroit's Michael Fiers) against one making just his third start of the season (Cleveland's Shane Bieber). That said, Fiers still has a 4.83 ERA on the road and likely won't find things as easy this time against Cleveland as they were back on June 9th when he allowed only one run in seven innings of work (that was in Detroit). As for Bieber, this will be his first start against someone other than Minnesota. While it wasn't necessarily "pretty" his last time out (10 hits), he got away w/ allowing just one run and had seven strikeouts. Bieber is known as a high-strikeout pitcher from his time in the minors where he delivered a phenomenal 234-16 KW ratio dating back to last year (in 249 IP). Detroit is not only 1-8 as a road 'dog of +175 or higher this season; they're 8-21 in that price range the L3 seasons. 6* Cleveland 

8* Over Marlins/Rockies (8:40 ET): The two franchises that came into existence in 1993 (only D'backs and Rays "younger") start a three-game series tonight at Coors Field and for several reasons - some more obvious than others, I expect things to go a lot differently here than they did in a late April series in Miami. That previous series saw the Marlins take two of three w/ all three games going Under. Scoring is destined to increase here simply by virtue of the venue change, plus we have two shaky starters on the mound. After dropping eight in a row here at home, the Rockies have now won three straight (all against the Mets) as they scored 26 runs in the process. Miami is the worst team in the National League and gives up 5.7 runs per game on the road. Take the Over. 

As per usual, Coors Field has been the ballpark w/ the most runs scored on a per game basis this year. Coming into today, it has seen 11.9 rpg scored. The Rockies aren't the highest scoring home team in baseball (they're 4th), but they still average 5.2 rpg here on their own. The larger problem is obvious and that's they're dead last in baseball in terms of runs allowed per game at home, giving up a ghastly 6.7. Only five teams allow at least 5.0 and only one other (Texas) is giving up at least 6.0. So Miami should definitely score more than they're accustomed to here, especially facing Jon Gray, who has a 6.21 ERA and 1.593 WHIP at Coors Field this season (seven starts). Gray has allowed at least four runs in seven straight starts (despite never going more than six innings) and the Over has cashed in all of the previous four. Note the Rockies' L7 games have seen an average of 15.2 rpg! Wow. 

Miami certainly gives up its fair share of runs, which has played a large role in them having - by far - the worst scoring differential in the entire National League at -112 (basically twice as bad as the next worst team!). They are tied w/ Cincinnati for the most runs allowed in the Senior Circuit and having Wei-Yin Chen on the mound tonight will only add to that number - likely by a lot. Chen has a terrible 8.88 ERA and 1.932 WHIP in six road starts already this season and that's pitching in places not as difficult as this one. He already has a 7.07 career ERA vs. the Rockies and this will be his first time pitching at Coors Field. Miami has gone Over in four straight games while the Over is 17-3 in the Rockies' L20 games! 8* Over Marlins/Rockies

analysis soon

9* Under D'backs/Pirates (7:05 ET): Well, playing this matchup this way yesterday did not work out as Arizona exploded for eight runs early (in the first three innings), knocking Pittsburgh starter Kuhl out of the game pretty quickly. That essentially left us w/ no margin for error when it came to the total and sure enough when the Pirates inevitably put a few runs of their own on the board, it was Over (literally!). Tonight though, I fully anticipate this to be a lower-scoring game. I mentioned yday that these teams went Over in every game in a three-game series played at Chase Field just 10 days ago. But Chase Field is known for being "hitter-friendly," yet despite that the D'backs come in sporting the lowest team batting average in the National League (.227). Going w/ the Under again here. 

Obviously, I was pretty shocked to see the D'backs get off to such a hot start last night. They were facing a starter that had allowed 3 ER or fewer in seven of his last eight outings. But they hit that number in just one inning as it was pretty obvious Kuhl was adversely affected by his start being pushed back a day (due to rainout Weds). Don't look for the D'backs to have the same kind of success tonight against Ivan Nova, however. Nova has a 1.097 WHIP in five home starts this season and has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts overall. Last Saturday, one solo home run was all he allowed against Cincinnati as he scattered five hits over 6 IP. Those two starts have come since he was activated off the DL w/ a finger sprain. It's only logical that a healthy pitcher is a better pitcher, so I expect more of the same from Nova this evening.

While I have my suspicions over the Arizona offense, their pitching continues to be a real strength. They're allowing just 3.8 rpg for the year, which is top six in all of baseball. Pat Corbin will toe the rubber tonight, looking to regain the form he had when he was 4-0 w/ a 2.12 ERA back in early May. Corbin has allowed 5 ER in B2B starts, but both were at home. His last two road starts have seen him go six-plus innings while allowing just one run on four hits both times. He also finished w/ a 14-3 KW ratio. His ERA is 2.78 away from home for the season and he hasn't dropped a decision in six tires. This will be a low-scoring game. 9* Under D'backs/Pirates

10* Washington (7:10 ET): The standings may say these division rivals are just one-half game apart, but the reality is the gap is much larger than that. The Nationals have outscored their opposition by 47 runs this season while the Phillies' differential currently sits at just +7. That being said, the Nats come into this weekend series not exactly in their finest form. A nine-game stretch against American League teams produced a record of just 3-6, and that includes taking two of three from lowly Baltimore. Overall, the team is below .500 for the month of June, but it's not like the Phillies have been any better. The road team comes into this one w/ the same record for the month (8-10), despite just taking two of three (at home) from St. Louis. But, outside of the City of Brotherly Love, this team simply isn't the same as they currently hold a 15-20 road record (compared to just 24-13 at home). I'm on Washington in the series opener. 

Philadelphia might be only 8-10 in June, but they're 3-0 in Zach Eflin starts. Eflin is on the bump tonight, carrying in a 1.93 ERA and 0.911 WHIP those L3 starts. While he doesn't necessarily share in his team's struggles away from home (3.29 ERA, 1.097 WHIP), the Phillies record in his five road starts is only 3-2. Eflin hasn't exactly been consistent this year either; prior to this three-start stretch, he'd allowed 11 runs (in just 8 2/3 IP) in B2B shaky showings. It should be noted that Philly is being outscored by nearly a full run per game on the road and batting just .222. That's the lowest team batting average away from home in the entire National League! So Eflin probably shouldn't bank on getting a ton of run support tonight. 

Washington will counter w/ Tanner Roark, who hasn't enjoyed a ton of success recently. He wasn't bad against the Phillies earlier in the year, however, giving up just three runs in 6 1/3 innings and finishing w/ a season-best nine strikeouts. Whether its Roark or anybody else, the Nats typically don't give up a lot of runs per game (only 3.6) here at home and they're holding opposing hitters to a .216 average (#1 in National League!). As for the Nats' offense, there's been plenty of hand-wringing recently, but Bryce Harper is back in the leadoff spot and the team is 9-1 w/ him in that position this season (including 4-2 win yday). 10* Washington 

8* Under D'Backs/Pirates (7:05 ET): Pittsburgh has made a pitching change here as it was originally supposed to be Ivan Nova starting, but instead it will be Chad Kuhl. That's just fine by me, considering the way I'm playing this one, as Kuhl has actually been the slightly better pitcher of the two. The Pirates and D'backs played a series earlier in the year and all three games went Over the total. But that was at Chase Field, a hitter friendly environment. I'm expecting a far lower-scoring game tonight at PNC Park. Did you know that - despite playing its home games in that hitter friendly environment - Arizona actually ranks dead last in all of MLB when it comes to team batting average (.227)? Quite frankly, they're fortunate to also be 14th in runs scored. That low batting average will help contribute to the Under tonight. 

Kuhl was actually set to start yesterday, but the Pirates' finale w/ Milwaukee was rained out. They'd split the first two games of that series, scoring only three runs in the process while at the same time giving up just three. Truthfully, we catch a bit of a break w/ the rainout (was going to play the Under either way, though) as Kuhl has been sharp of late. It's been five consecutive starts allowing 3 ER or less w/ him allowing just nine total in 29 1/3 IP. What makes that stretch even more impressive is that it came exclusively at the expense of division rivals i.e. teams that are quite familiar w/ him. 

Like Pittsburgh, Arizona was off yday, although their off-day was planned. They just split a pair of games out in LA (Angels) before making the trip East. In the series vs. Pittsburgh earlier this month, they were able to take two of three games thanks to scoring 26 runs (on 28 hits). However, this team's true "calling card" has actually been its pitching, which is allowing an average of just 3.8 rpg for the year, 7th best in all of baseball. Zack Godley will take the mound tonight, looking to build upon B2B strong efforts where he allowed just 2 ER on 5 hits both times (total of 12 1/3 IP). Godley, like Kuhl, did not pitch in the last series between these teams. I already mentioned how Arizona's team batting average is the lowest in all of MLB; that should go a long way in helping this be a low-scoring game. 8* Under D'backs/Pirates

10* Argentina (2:00 PM ET): A disappointing showing in the opener (drew Iceland 1-1) coupled w/ Croatia's very impressive 2-0 win over Nigeria has the price on Argentina far too low here and I'll take advantage. While the starting XI may not be up to the usual standard we're seeing from La Albiceleste, certainly there is a reason this team entered the draw as the Group D favorite. That (primary) reason would be Lionel Messi, who is coming off quite the disappointing showing vs. Iceland where he missed on a penalty kick. But I fully expect Messi and La Albiceleste to bounce back w/ a spirited effort on Thursday. They are my pick to win and seize control of the group. 

I was on Croatia Saturday as they blanked Nigeria. As is the case w/ Argentina here, I though the price was far too low on Vatreni that day. Nigeria was the lowest rated team in the group according to FIFA (#48), so this is a rather massive step up in class to the #5 ranked team in the world. (For the record, Croatia ranks #20). Let us not forget something I wrote in my analysis of that Croatia-Nigeria matchup - that since becoming an independent nation Croatia has NEVER qualified for the Round of 16 in World Cup play. Coming off an easier than expected win over Nigeria, might they actually be too overconfident heading into their toughest matchup of the groups stage?

Remember that Nigeria had a suspect goaltending situation as well. Even with that, Croatia's 2-0 victory was somewhat misleading. They scored on an own goal and a penalty. Other than those two decisive plays, the teams looked pretty even as Croatia struggled to penetrate the Nigerian defense and was often off-target w/ its shot attempts. In fact, possession was basically even in the contest and the Super Eagles finished w/ more shots on goal. Another developing story here is that Croatia has sent home striker Nikola Kalinic after he refused to come in as a late substitution. Note Argentina outshot Iceland 26-9 in the opening contest and controlled the ball 73% of the time. Messi will be better here and Argentina gets the three points. 10* Argentina 

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): I think I've made my suspiscion of these Mariners well-known by this point. Their 46-27 record has largely been "built on the back" of a 23-10 mark in one-run games, which includes a perfect 6-0 in extra innings. As I've made clear through the years, a team's record in "close games" should be close to .500. If it skews heavily one way or the other, a team should consider itself either very fortunate or unfortunate. Something else I've made clear is that scoring differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. In this regard, Seattle fails to impress as well as they are only +17 in runs scored compared to their opponents this season. I wasn't the least bit surprised then to see them get outclassed by the Yankees last night (lost 7-2) as the AL East leaders have a run differential of +103 on the season. More of the same tonight as the Yanks reaffirm the oddsmakers stance on this matchup.

The Yankees hit four home runs last night; that was two more hits than Seattle had for the entire game! Furthermore, one of those two Mariners' hits leadoff the game as Dee Gordon doubled and later scored after two fielder's choices. From there, the next 19 Mariners were retired in order by Domingo German until a "meaningless" Nelson Cruz' HR in the seventh. It's another young starter going for NY tonight as Jonathan Loaisiga gets the baseball. Loaisiga made his big league debut on Friday and threw five shutout innings against the Rays. I suspect that the underdog might be popular here given the price and the pitching matchup, but that would be a mistake as the Yankees remain one of the best home teams in baseball w/ a 27-11 record. They are also one of only three teams averaging at least 5.5 rpg at home this season. 

Felix Hernandez toes the rubber for the Mariners. This won't be his "first rodeo" against the Yankees, in fact, he's 7-2 w/ a 2.00 ERA in 11 career starts against them. But this isn't also the same "King Felix" from the past. Hernandez is only 6-6 this season in 15 starts (8-7 TSR) w/ a 5.44 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Despite the team winning fairly regularly during the time period, they've lost four of Hernandez's last five starts and he's given up at least four runs in three of those four losses. He was good his last time out vs. Boston, but that game marked the very rare one-run defeat for the M's (at the hands of the Red Sox). Most disappointing of all for Hernandez is that - with the exception of Boston - he's generally faced some of the weaker teams in MLB and still has the subpar numbers. This will arguably be his most difficult start to date in '18 and it's one I don't think he nor the team is ready for. New York is 15-4 its last 19 games overall and is also 8-2 its L10 head to head meetings w/ Seattle. 8* NY Yankees

8* Cincinnati (12:35 ET): I was on the Reds last night and they wasted little time in "putting the boots" to Detroit, at one point leading by as much as 9-0 before eventually winning 9-5. It was a Joey Votto grand slam in the bottom of the third that got things going and it's worth noting that all five Tigers' runs came in the top of the ninth, when the game was already well out of reach. It's a quick turnaround for the two teams here on Wedneday and I think that spells "advantage home team" as the result should be quite similar. Even off a weekend sweep (of the lowly White Sox), I wasn't buying the Tigers on the road, not w/ a 13-21 YTD record there. Not like Cincinnati is a whole lot better, but they've actually won five of seven themselves. I'm on them again this afternoon! 

Sal Romano gave the Reds seven strong innings last night, allowing only four hits and no runs. Now they send arguably their top starter, Tyler Mahle, to the bump on Wednesday afternoon. The team has won all of Mahle's last four starts w/ him allowing zero runs in two of the last three (1.10 ERA in June). Last time out, he faced another American League lineup (in an AL park) and shut Kansas City out for six innings, allowing only three hits. Now that was the Royals, but here Mahle catches a break in that he's pitching in his own park where Detroit won't have the DH in its lineup. We talked about yday how the Tigers were already w/o Miguel Cabrera for the rest of the season. This is an offense averaging just 3.6 rpg on the road this season, which is bottom five in all of baseball. Mahle has allowed just 2 ER total in his last 16 1/3 IP and only 14 hits as well. 

While Mahle is his team's leader in net units earned, Detroit starter Michael Fulmer is last for his club in that department. Fulmer comes into Wednesday w/ a 5-9 TSR even though he's off B2B quality outings. Both times he went seven innings and allowed one run on five hits. But both of those starts came at home. In fact, it's been nearly a full month since Fulmer started on the road. He has a 4.22 ERA there for the season. As a team, the Tigers are just 19-39 their L58 road games (dates back to LY's horrendous campaign) and they're also just 1-6 vs. NL teams in 2018. Meanwhile, the Reds are a surprising 5-1 in IL play this season. 8* Cincinnati

8* Morocco +1 (8:00 AM ET): Please note that I'm using the Asian Handicap here where all we need is a draw. Morocco got the proverbial "raw deal" in its opening match, losing on an "own goal" (in the 95th minute!) to Iran, 1-0. I had the Under in that game, an easy winner. I did not have a play in Portugal's opener where they drew Iberian rival Spain, 3-3, as all three of their goals came off the foot of the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo. Prevailing wisdom here is that a mentally beaten Morocco will be no match for Ronaldo and company. But I contest that theory. What If Ronaldo isn't at the same level we saw him at against Spain? The Atlas Lions can certainly earn a draw here. 

Realistically, Morocco probably needs a win here to have any chance of advancing past the group stage. Therefore, look for them to be a lot more aggressive than they were against Iran. That said, this is still a team that "should have" played to a scoreless draw vs. Iran. Had they done so, they would have added to their already impressive total of recent "clean sheets." As I said in my analysis for the matchup w/ the Iranians, Morocco went unbeaten in CAF qualifying and didn't concede a single goal in six matches. That's really impressive. It should also be stated that while they lost to Iran, the Atlas Lions truly did outplay Team Melli. They had 13 shots on goal (to Iran's 8) and also had possession of the ball 63% of the time. 

The reigning Euro Champs would seem to have a clear path to advancing to the Round of 16. Beating Morocco and Iran would get them there and Selecao has lost just two competitive matches since the '14 World Cup. Both times Ronaldo was injured and did not play. However, it needs to be reiterated how this isn't the deepest of teams. Other than Ronaldo, who can score? No one did vs. Spain and they also conceded three goals. Considering the "stinginess" of the Moroccan side, Portugal won't be scoring as many times here as they did in the opener. Count on that. A goal from the Atlas Lions all but assures us this won't be a losing bet. 8* Morocco +1

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The Giants lost (again) to the Marlins last night, this time in just about the most excruciatingly way possible. That being blowing a 4-0 lead and giving up two runs in the top of the ninth to fall 5-4. I was on them (San Fran, that is) and if you read my analysis yday, then you know that the Giants also dropped three of four in Miami last week. The Marlins are NOT a good team (at all), so this really shouldn't be happening. Not that SF is a top tier team themselves, but Miami has the worst run differential in the National Leaue right now (-108), thus the fact they are even within 15 games of .500 seems rather fortunate. I'll back the Giants again on Tuesday. 

Just like last night, tonight's pitching matchup is a rematch of the previous series between the two teams. You have to feel sorry for SF starter Suarez last night as it was the second straight time he outpitched Caleb Smith, only to not come away w/ the victory. Tonight, the situation is a little different in that it was the Giants' starter, Dereck Rodriguez that came away w/ the victory in the last meeting, at the expense of Miami's Dan Straily. Rodriguez, making just his third start of the season, pitched better than Straily as he lasted 6 2/3 innings and gave up just two runs. The Giants won the game, 6-3, scoring three runs off Straily in five innings and that proved to be the difference. 

Rodriguez has looked good in two of his three starts so far while Straily has struggled lately, posting a 5.54 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in his L3 starts (all Marlins' losses). In fact, Straily's team start record his L4 starts is 0-4, all of those losses coming to NL West teams (two to San Diego!). Something else I talked about in yday's writeup was that the Giants are a pretty good home team (19-12 overall). Last night's loss was just their second in the last nine games here. Usually, it's Miami's bullpen that's pretty bad (6.05 ERA on the road), not the Giants'. Truthfully, it's pretty shocking to see the Marlins having won six of their last eight games, but half of those wins came by only one run, two come from behind efforts against the Giants. I still feel revenge is in the air at AT&T Park. 8* San Francisco

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Last night, I played the Mets and that worked out quite nicely as they won 12-2, thus avenging a prior sweep they suffered at the hands of the Rockies (at Citi Field last month). On the flip side, Colorado has now dropped EIGHT in a row at home. But after being a dog last night on the ML, they are favored here and it's easy to understand why. They won't be facing Jacob deGrom this time and as I went through in yday's analysis, he was long overdue for a victory (which he got). Instead, they'll be up against Jason Vargas, who hasn't been anywhere near as effective as deGrom in 2018. At long last, Colorado snaps its long home losing streak here! 

The Rockies do not have a good run differential (-54), so they should probably feel fortunate to even be within four games of .500 right now. They'd certainly been overachieving even more though prior to dropping 13 of their last 17 games. So let's call this what it is, a "market correction." But the woes here at Coors Field are due to end sooner rather than later, IMO. Facing Vargas will definitely benefit the offense, which usually doesn't need much assistance at home. Vargas has a 9.14 ERA and 1.838 WHIP on the road this season, resulting in a 1-4 team start record. His overall numbers aren't much better, though he's surrendered only five runs total in his last three starts, each of them spanning exactly five innings.

Look no further than last night for evidence that the "Coors effect" can have on an offense, even one that had previously been as anemic as the Mets. The 12 runs they scored last night were more than they'd scored in deGrom's previous eight starts - combined. During a disastrous 1-12 stretch that preceded the current three-game win streak, they totaled only 21 runs. I recognize Rockies starter German Marquez has hardly set the world on fire in 2018, but he did beat the Mets earlier in the season by holding them to two runs over six innings, finishing w/ 8 K's and 0 walks. The home run ball has given him trouble recently, but twice in his last three starts he's equaled that season high of eight strikeouts. Bottom line is that the Rockies are due to win one at home and they'll get the job done here. 8* Colorado

10* Texas (8:15 ET): The Rangers came to Kansas City and beat up on the lowly Royals, taking the season opener by a score of 6-3. Starter Bartolo Colon earned his 244th career win in the process, passing the legendary Juan Marichel for the most ever by a Dominican-born pitcher. Tonight should prove even easier w/ Cole Hamels on the bump. In what has certainly been a disappointing season so far for the Rangers, the Royals are a welcome matchup as KC has the worst run differential in all of baseball (-139) and dropped seven in a row. Texas should roll tonight behind Hamels as the Royals' woes continue. 

With last night's loss, the Royals are now a woeful 10-27 at home this season. They've lost 14 of 16 overall here in June, including the seven straight, so this is clearly a team you don't want to be caught playing right now. They've been outscored by a stunning 2.3 rpg here at Kauffman Stadium so far w/ opposing hitters batting .285. During the losing streak, their own offense is averaging just 2.1 rpg and batting a collective .183. They've been outscored 45-15 during the losing streak as well. None of this is likely to reverse course w/ Jason Hammel on the mound either. Tuesday's starter has a 4-10 TSR this season and a 5.00 ERA. Granted, he hasn't pitched that poorly of late, but he's winless in his last eight home starts (0-4 this year) and has a 4.07 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Rangers. Furthermore, there is the issue of who will be the closer for this team moving forward. Kelvin Herrera was just dealt yday to Washington and was 14 of 16 in save situations. 

Hamels actually lost to Hammel and the Royals last month, giving up five runs in the process. His team start record for the season is the same as Hammel (4-10), but has generally pitched better on the road where he has a 2.40 ERA and 1.161 WHIP. This will most definitely be a drop in class for Hamels after facing the Astros and Dodgers in his last two starts. Last time out (against the Dodgers), he allowed just two runs (one unearned) in 6 IP. Texas is going for a season-best fourth straight win tonight and will do so w/ Elvis Andrus now back in the lineup. He returned last night after missing 59 games and scored a run. This is the rare situation where the Rangers absolutely deserve to be favored on the road. 10* Texas

8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Detroit arrives in Cincy riding a five-game win streak. They swept the division rival White Sox over the weekend, on the road. Note that before that series commenced, the Tigers were just 10-20 away from home this season. They lose the DH from the lineup in this Interleague series (played at a NL park) and that will certainly affect an offense that isn't very potent to begin with. The Tigers only average 3.6 rpg on the road and remember they're already w/o the services of Miguel Cabrera the rest of the way. The Reds aren't the stiffest of competition, but I like them here as they've won four of six themselves and starter Sal Romano has pitched well of late. He has a 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts overall. 

Interleague play has gone very differently for these two teams this season. The Reds are 4-1 while the Tigers are 1-5. Cincy just took a pair of games in Kansas City last week. All of Detroit's IL games came against Pittsburgh, early in the season. Cincy just dropped two of three in the Steel City themselves (over the weekend), but did take the finale, 8-6. Anything close to that kind of offensive production should be enough for Romano, who threw eight strong innings his last time out, allowing just one run (a solo HR) on four hits. That was most definitely his most effective start in awhile, but note Romano typically doesn't allow many baserunners. Facing a weakened Tigers lineup (no DH) here certainly works in his favor and as I already mentioned, Detroit typically doesn't score much on the road.

Matt Boyd starts here for Detroit and the team has won his last four starts. Only one was quality, however, which is telling. All four wins came as a ML underdog as well. Can he really put together five straight wins as a dog? The fact that the Reds are ML favorites is telling. Boyd has won just one decision (in six tries) on the road this season and has a 2-4 team start record. Let's also note that the Tigers are just 14-22 in road games this season. 8* Cincinnati

8* Russia (2:00 ET): I'm kind of shocked that the host nation is available at plus odds here against an Egyptian side that has to feel extremely devastated after losing 1-0 to Uruguay on Friday, as they conceded the lone goal in the 90th minute. Meanwhile, I know Saudi Arabia was the opposition, but no team won its first match by a wider margin than the Russians, who prevailed 5-0 in the opener of the entire Tournament. Let's not discount the slight edge Russia gains here by having an extra day to prepare for Game #2, not to mention the massive advantage that comes along w/ being the host nation. Great value on a Russian side that so far has had a very fortuitous draw. 

Egypt elected not to use its best player, Mohammed Salah, in the opener vs. Uruguay and that may have cost them dearly. I know I was happy as I was on Uruguay. While the Egyptians certainly played their hearts out in that match and probably feel they should have come away w/ a draw, the fact is they were outplayed for 90 minutes. While possession numbers weren't too lopsided, Uruguay had far more shots on goal and better chances. Watching the game, I had been very frustrated w/ Uruguay's inability to score before they finally broke through late. Victory obviously won't come as easily for the Russians here as it did vs. Saudi Arabia, but they'll still have plenty of chances to find the back of the net. 

I said Egypt wouldn't score if Salah didn't play and that's precisely what happened. They are entirely too dependent on him as he accounted for 71% of his team's goals scored during qualifying. Russia seems confident they can neutralize him and the fact he's not 100 percent is a huge help as well. The Pharohs are winless in their L5 matches (0-3-2) and have been held w/o a goal three times. With their top player not fit and playing the host country, this is not an ideal draw for them. Remember, this is their first WC appearance since 1990 and they are also one of the lower ranked teams in the entire draw (according to FIFA). 8* Russia

8* Senegal +0.5 (11:00 AM ET): Please note that I'm using the "Asian Handicap" for this play, which means we win if the game is a draw OR (obviously) if our side prevails outright. I like Senegal getting a half-goal in this situation as I believe them to be every bit as talented as their favored counterparts in Poland, if not more. Group H is perceived to be the most "wide-open" of the entire draw and if there is to be an "upset," I believe it would be here and that could have major ramifications for the rest of the group and possibly have Senegal advance to the round of 16 alongside group favorite Colombia. The +0.5 is a nice luxury to have here. 

Qualifying for this year's WC came fairly easy for Senegal. The Lions of Teranga took 14 points in their six matches (four wins) and scored 10 goals in the process. They didn't lose and one of the two draws saw them give up the lead in the 88th minute. It's a talented group, led by Sadio Mane, who was Liverpool's second best player this past Premier League campaign, behind only Mohamed Salah. It's the first World Cup appearance since that miraculous run to the quarterfinal round in 2002 (which included an opening rd win over France) and while no African side has ever won a WC, I believe this one can certainly make some noise in the group stage.

Poland comes in at 8th in the FIFA rankings, but I have to wonder if that's too high. The team is highly dependent on Robert Lewandowski, whose 16 goals were tops in UEFA qualifying. However, some of the other key players simply did not have impressive seasons w/ their respective clubs. Quite frankly, I don't think it's a stretch to say Senegal is the deeper side here. This will be Poland's first WC appearance since '06 and they haven't made it out of the group stage since 1986. They are likely going to be w/o defender Kamil Glik on Tuesday, which would be a key absence. I see a draw being a likely scenario here (which would be potentially huge for Senegal) and that's all we need. 8* Senegal +0.5 

10* Colombia (8:00 AM ET): Already in the first "round" of group play, we've seen a number of the favorites struggle or out-and-out disappoint. Brazil and Argentina had to settle for draws in their respective first matches while over in Group F, Germany was beaten by Mexico. Uruguay and France needed late scores in their games to come away w/ three points, leaving only Belgium (beat Panama 3-0 Monday) as the lone group fave who really performed as you might expect (even then, the Belgians were tied 0-0 at half). That brings us to Group H, which ironically enough was perceived to be the most "wide open" in the draw. Colombia is the betting favorite to win, but still at plus odds. However, I believe Los Cafeteros to be priced far too low for this opening match against group long shot Japan. This looks like a real value play to me.

Now there is a reason for the value and an "elephant in the room" that certainly needs addressing. Colombia is expected to be w/o its best player, James Rodriguez, on Tuesday. Considered to be one of the best players in the entire world, Rodriguez missed a training session on Friday due to muscle fatigue as his left calf had been bothering him. On the short list to win the "Golden Boot" (tournament's best player) here is Russia, Rodriguez won that very honor four years ago in Brazil by scoring six goals (led all players) in five matches. He found the back of the net six times during qualifying for Russia. As big a loss as Rodriguez would be, there are a number of players that could step up and collectively fill the void.

It also helps to be playing a team you beat 4-1 four years ago in Brazil. Japan has its own issues coming into Russia as just two months ago, they sacked manager Vahid Halilhodzic, leaving replacement Akira Nishino ill-prepared for the biggest event in the sport. The Japanese team is comprised of a lot of veteran players, but only two teams in the entire draw are ranked lower in the FIFA rankings (Saudi Arabia and Russia). It's the top tier teams that usually give Colombia trouble and the Blue Samurais simply are not in that class. Rodriguez or no Rodriguez, I believe Los Cafeteros will roll in their WC opener. 10* Colombia 

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The Giants return home with some revenge on their minds after dropping three of four in Miami last week. That should be viewed as a total embarrassment by the team, but note they are off a win yday having beat the Dodgers Sunday by a score of 4-3. For a second straight series, they avoided a sweep by winning the final game, but this is one where I believe they'll get off to a much better start. Miami, despite five wins in its last seven games, should still be viewed as the worst team in the National League (in my eyes) as they've been outscored by 109 runs this season, the third worst differential in the entire sport (Royals, Orioles). I successfully played against them yday (they lost 10-4 in Baltimore) and this line is low, IMO, to go against such a bad team. 

Today's pitching matchup is a rematch from last Wednesday as Caleb Smith (Miami) takes on Andrew Suarez (SF). The former got the better of the latter the last time out even though it was Suarez that allowed fewer runs. But Suarez (allowed 2 runs) lasted only five innings and Miami was able to score twice late in the game to "steal" the victory. Smith went 6+ innings and allowed three runs, but did not factor into the decision either. Pitching in San Francisco, I expect things to go differently as Smith has a 4.41 ERA and 1.183 WHIP on the road while Suarez sports an outstanding 0.829 WHIP at home. Only one of Suarez's last five starts has taken place here at AT&T Park and in that lone appearance, he delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. In contrast, Smith's last road start saw him allow five runs in only four innings.

The Marlins are just 14-23 overall on the road this year and being outscored by more than two full runs per game. Needless to say, that's very bad. Their bullpen has done them no favors either w/ a 6.28 ERA and 1.630 WHIP away from home. Meanwhile, the Giants have been a pretty sound home team this year, scoring 5.0 rpg en route to a 19-11 record. They've won seven of their last eight here as well and their bullpen numbers have been quite good. In the aforementioned meeting last Wednesday, the Giants blew leads of 2-0, 3-2 and 4-3. Revenge will be sweet tonight. 8* San Francisco

10* NY Mets (8:40 ET): After an absolutely dreadful stretch where they dropped 12 of 13 games, never scoring more than four runs in the process, the Mets finally "turned things around" w/ a pair of victories over the weekend (even scoring FIVE times in both games!) against Arizona. Now they head to a place likely to reverse their offensive woes, that being Coors Field, which as per usual is playing as the highest scoring venue in all of baseball. The host Rockies are giving up 6.5 rpg here for the season, easily the highest average for any team in baseball, which certainly helps explain their poor 11-19 home record. This is a revenge spot for the Mets as well as they were swept by Colorado (at Citi Field) last month. With Jacob deGrom on the mound for the series opener, I like the road team's chances in this one. 

In DeGrom's last 10 starts, he has given up 1 or 0 ER NINE times. Seven of those nine times, he's pitched at least seven innings. Note that one time in the L10 starts that deGrom allowed more than 1 ER, he gave up only three and one was unearned. Despite this, the Mets' record in those 10 starts is somehow just 2-8! To say deGrom has been the victim of some poor luck would be a mild understatement as the Mets' offense has failed to score more than three runs in any deGrom start since April. Coors Field should change all that, however. That 2-8 TSR is mind-blowing when you consider deGrom actually has the lowest ERA in all of baseball (1.55) and it's 0.87 during that time! In five career starts vs. the Rockies, deGrom is 3-0 w/ a 0.99 ERA. Obviously, Coors can effect him too, but the fact he's the first pitcher since '99 (Randy Johnson) to have five consecutive starts of seven innings or more with two or fewer runs allowed without his team coming away with a win, tells me he's in line for the victory Monday.

Colorado has been every bit as bad as the Mets recently as they've dropped 12 of their past 16 games and seven straight here at home. Bad luck has plagued them as well as their 21 blown leads this season are the most in baseball and they added to the total yday w/ a 13-12 loss at Texas. The bullpen ERA of 5.49 is the highest in the National League, which is a big problem obviously. Starting opposite deGrom will by Tyler Anderson and Coors Field has been no friend of his as he has a 5.14 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in five starts here this season. The team has gone 1-4 in those five starts as well. deGrom is long overdue for a victory here and I look for the Mets to gain a measure of revenge for that previous sweep at the hands of the Rockies. 10* NY Mets

8* Over White Sox/Indians (7:10 ET): These two AL Central foes just met last week, in Chicago, and ended up splitting a four-game set. Given the respective "lays of the land" for both clubs, that had to feel extremely disappointing for Cleveland. So too then was the Tribe dropping two of three at home over the weekend to another division rival, Minnesota. Still though, Cleveland should easily end up finishing in first here as none of the other four teams are likely to finish w/ a winning record. The White Sox just got swept at home by Detroit and are now 24-46 for the year. They deserve to be on everyone's shortlist for worst teams in all of baseball, which was to be expected. Obviously, the price is too high on Cleveland to make any kind of wager on them Monday, but with the last series against Chicago featuring four Unders, I like this one to go Over the total.  

In that last series, none of the four games saw more than seven total runs scored. One of them featured tonight's pitching matchup of Dylan Covey vs. Trevor Bauer. Both pitched well as Covey allowed just two runs in seven innings while Bauer gave up just three in 7 2/3 IP. The White Sox won 3-2, making this a revenge spot for Bauer individually. Interestingly, Covey was able to "get away" w/ allowing only two runs, despite 10 hits last Wednesday. That sounds pretty lucky to me. Another reason I expect Cleveland to score more here is the fact they average 5.6 rpg here at Progressive Field. That places them as the second highest scoring team at home in all of baseball, trailing only Boston by 0.1 rpg. Chicago gives up 5.3 rpg on the road as well, a full half run more than what they allow at home. 

Both starters have seen the Under cash in each of their last three starts, so that coupled w/ how the last series played out has the "just due" factor pretty high here for an Over. Bauer has had some really impressive strikeout totals recently (48 total in L4 starts, that's over 28 2/3 IP!), but he's only three starts removed from allowing seven runs in a loss to the Twins. The Indians are allowing 5.0 rpg at home this season and a key to their struggles here in 2018 is that the bullpen has gone from 1st in ERA (last year) to 30th this year. So don't discount the likelihood of Chicago putting some runs on the board late in this one. At 10.6 rpg, Progressive Field is playing as the third highest scoring park in all of MLB, trailing of course Coors Field and also the ballpark in Arlington, which is inhabited by a terrible Rangers' pitching staff. The Over is 22-11-1 here for the season, #1 in all of baseball. 8* Over White Sox/Indians

8* Over Cubs/Cardinals (8:05 ET): The Cubs now have a chance to turn the tables on the rival Cardinals. When they visited Busch Stadium last month, they were swept, losing two of the three games by one run. But that didn't change my view of the teams as Chicago carried the NL's best run differential into the rematch this weekend and sure enough, they've now taken the first two games and done so in extremely impressive fashion. They were my 10* Game of the Week on Friday and routed the Redbirds, 13-5. It was then a 6-3 victory last night as the Cubbies are now just one-half game back of an inferior Milwaukee team for first place in the Central Division. I'm not totally confident Chicago finishes off the sweep here, but I do believe they'll continue to score in bunches and that has me on the Over tonight on ESPN.

The Cubs have been one of baseball's best road teams this season. In any other year, them outscoring opponents by nearly two full runs per game away from home would easily be the best such mark in either league. But the Astros are a ridiculous +3.1 rpg on the road currently. Still, other than Houston, no team allows a fewer number of runs per game on the road than the Cubs (3.1). At the same time though, they are one of only six teams to be averaging 5.0 rpg or more themselves on the road (1 of only 2 NL clubs). They've put 19 runs on the board so far in this series and I believe are poised to add to that total in a significant way tonight against Jack Flaherty. I say that knowing full well that Flaherty is off one of his better starts of the season. But it also came against San Diego. Prior to that, he allowed six runs in bad home loss to a lousy Marlins team. Flaherty has also allowed a HR in five straight outings. The Cubs have already homered five times in this series.

Jose Quintana gets the starting nod opposite Flaherty and while he's pitched well recently, note his ERA and WHIP are still 4.09 and 1.337 respectively, for the season. Though he didn't allow any runs last month here in St. Louis, Quintana was limited to just four innings as he also walked four batters and was already at 88 pitches. You'd have to go back to the first two starts of the season to find the last time Quintana completed six innings in consecutive outings. He did allow two solo home runs his last time out. Note that last night's game easily could have seen more scoring, but the teams went a combined 4 for 21 w/ RISP, leaving 21 men on base. More timely hitting will lead to an Over tonight. 8* Over Cubs/Cardinals

8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): I know that it seems very difficult to back the Orioles right now. An already disastrous season is approaching its nadir (already there?) as the team has now dropped nine in a row to land at 19-50 for the season, which is the worst record in all of baseball. They're on the verge of being swept - at home, no less (!) - by the worst team from the National League. Miami has come in this weekend and taken the first two games - by scores of 2-0 and 5-4 - each time holding off a late rally attempt by the home team. But despite all that, I believe the "third time will be the charm" here today for the Orioles as Dylan Bundy is on the mound and he's at least been the club's most reliable starter in 2018. 

Bundy has been particularly sharp in day games this season, with a 4-2 TSR and 1.08 ERA. He also has a 2.39 career ERA in Interleague play. Coming into this game w/ a streak of four straight quality outings, Bundy has not even allowed a single run in the last two. He comes into Sunday riding a 15-inning scoreless streak, having allowed a total of just six hits during that time. Last time out, he was facing Boston, and sadly that ended up being one of the worst "beats" Bundy will have to deal w/ in his career. He threw eight scoreless innings against one of the best teams in baseball, but received no support (literally!) and the Red Sox ended up winning 2-0 in 12 innings. That was the fourth time this year Bundy hasn't allowed a single earned run and the team's record is 3-1 in those starts. Nine of his 14 starts so far have been quality ones and the current four start stretch includes a complete game against the White Sox where Bundy finished w/ 14 K's. 

Baltimore has now lost 11 straight at Camden Yards, matching a franchise record set back in '07. This is also the franchise's worst 69-game start since that infamous 1988 team opened w/ 21 straight losses. I'm not saying "the worm is going to turn" completely here (missing closer Zach Britton to start the year definitely hurt), but this is a game they "should" win. Miami has the third worst run differential in all of baseball and while they've won five of six, they're a team that's still been outscored by roughly 2.0 rpg on the road this season. Trevor Richards is the starter Sunday and he's yet to taste victory away from home w/ an 0-2 record (four starts) to go along w/ a 5.71 ERA and 1.788 WHIP. Facing an American League lineup (DH) is something he hasn't done since his 1st start of the season when he went up against Boston and gave up five runs in 4 1/3 IP. And that was in a NL park where the opposing pitcher had to come up to bat. In fact, last time out marked Richards' first career victory. If the O's don't win Sunday, then when? 8* Baltimore

6* Germany (11:00 AM ET): No country has repeated as WC Champs since Brazil in 1962 (the days of Pele!). But that won't stop the Germans from trying to do the honors here in Russia. The 2014 champs come in as a decided Group F favorite w/ an experienced group guided by Joachim Low. Note the difference in odds between them and Mexico, the perceived "second choice" to make it through Group E. Based on that and the German talent on hand, I'm more than willing to lay the price here in what should be an easy victory for the favorites on Sunday.

Recent form has been far from impressive (just one win in the last six International affairs!), but I have little concern over the top ranked team according to the FIFA World Rankings. When it came to World Cup qualifying, Low's side was impeccable as they won all 10 matches, conceding only four goals in the process. Let us also not forget they won the Confederations Cup last year (arguably w/ a "B-squad"), routing Mexico 4-1 along the way. Going all the way back to 1985, Die Mannschaft has lost only one time to the Mexicans. Lackadaisical starts plagued them in those recent friendlies plagued them, but given the stage, I would not expect that to be an issue here. Germany scored 43 times during qualifying (again, conceded only four goals), which was tied for the highest total among all European nations. In the last World Cup, they scored more times from set pieces (5x) than any other team. Not only are they the defending champs, they've made the Final 4 each of the last three WC's.

While Germany has been extremely successful in recent World Cups, the same cannot be said for El Tri, who has been eliminated in the Rd of 16 six straight times. In terms of depth, there is simply no comparison between the two sides here. I would not be shocked at all if this one is decided by multiple goals, so at less than a 2:1 favorite, Germany looks like a true bargain for this opening match. While Mexico isn't bad on the back end, they struggled to gain possession in the midfield and that will cost them severely against an opponent this talented. 6* Germany

analysis soon

6* Cleveland (4:10 ET): The Indians lost as big favorites (w/ Corey Kluber on the mound) last night, 6-3 to the Twins, but I fully anticipate them bouncing back w/ a win this afternoon. The truth of the matter is that the Tribe can virtually "sleepwalk" its way to another AL Central crown this year as none of the other four teams in their division profile as any better than .500. In fact, I'm not sure there's another team from that quartet that will end up w/ more than 75 wins by season's end! The Twins might be the second best team in the division, but that's "faint praise" and they were an obvious candidate for regression this year after making the Wild Card game LY. Winning B2B games in Cleveland as a big ML dog seems like an order too tall to climb.

It'll be Carlos Carrasco pitching today for Cleveland, looking to make it three straight dominant starts. Against Chicago (White Sox) and Milwaukee, Carrasco fanned 21 hitters in 14 IP and allowed just one run. He's no stranger to the Twins as today is the third time he's faced them in 2018. Both of the previous two took place in the Twin Cities. The last one was not good (allowed six runs), but the first one was as he delivered seven shutout innings. Obviously, I feel a repeat of the first is far more likely here. Minnesota came into this series batting just .220 as a team the L7 days. They shockingly got to Kluber last night, but I view that as a total aberration. 

Minnesota will go w/ rookie Fernando Romero and he's been shaky of late. In his L5 starts, his ERA is 6.20 and the last three, it's 8.52 (not to mention, a 1.894 WHIP as well). Now a lot of those poor numbers has to do w/ one poor start he had at Kansas City. But the fact he struggled against arguably the worst team in the sport doesn't exactly bode well either. Cleveland came into this series averaging 5.8 rpg at Progressive Field and is 11-3 here vs. AL Central foes. Simply feasting on their division rivals seems like a viable track to 90 wins for the Tribe this season and though they're now just 2-5 vs. the Twins this season, I see that record getting "squared away" sooner rather than later. I'll be in attendance at this game, by the way, and expect to be celebrating the victory in person. 6* Cleveland

10* Croatia (3:00 ET): Behind favorite Argentina, the race for second place in Group D is a little wide open. Croatia is the team getting the nod from the oddsmakers to make it through the group stage and I fully expect The Blazers to advance. This first match, against Nigeria, will likely set the tone in the group. To me, Group D has only been dubbed "the Group of Death" because one group has to get that designation. The top two are pretty clear cut to me here, moreso than some other groups in this year's draw. I'm on Croatia to win big here. 

Granted, Nigeria has plenty of potential. But there are also plenty of reasons to expect the Super Eagles to fall short of that potential here in Russia. First off, they have not exactly been in top form of late. Their last four International Friendlies produced zero victories and - according to FIFA - they are actually the lowest rated team in the group at #48 in the world. Then, you have the issue of Coach Gernot Rohr and the controversy he created with his own country's media, accusing them of accepting bribes for favorable player coverage. That seems like it would serve as a distraction heading into the team's biggest game in four years. 

Since becoming an independent nation, Croatia has never advanced past the group stage. That could change this year however as the team definitely has the potential - and favorable draw - to do so. What Vatreni must do here though is take advantage of Nigeria's suspect goaltending situation. There are no real viable options for Rohr to turn to here and his preferred option - 19 year old Francis Uzoho - has only 180 minutes of La Liga experience under his belt and is likely to be exposed. Croatia had its issues in qualifying in UEFA Group I, finishing behind Iceland (who ironically has longer odds to make it through the group stage), but this team also sports one of the most talented midfields in the draw - specifically Luka Modric. I see a motivated Croatian side coming up big Saturday afternoon as this - to me - is their best shot at three points in the group stage. 10* Croatia

8* Over Australia/France (6:00 AM ET): Prior to the complete of Spain-Portugal, every match (all 3 of them!) in this year's World Cup ended w/ a clean sheet. I don't expect that here and if it does, then it probably means it was a "long" 90 minutes for the Australians. France, the prohibitive Group C favorite, is expected to win its first match w/ relative ease. Their strength is on the offensive end, so one should reasonably expect a multi-goal effort here against an Australian side that should be completely overmatched on the back end. But, at the same, time Les Blues' own back end looked pretty shaky in its final WC warmup against the United States last week, despite conceding just the one goal. Over is the play here in the opener of Group C action.

France has a legit shot at winning the whole thing this year, but will have to guard against overconfidence in the group stage. This team boasts incredible depth and should - theoretically - overwhelm the Australians rather easily. An early goal is not out of the question and from there, look for a wide open game. Again, a suspect defense from the French could - and probably will - lead to them giving up a goal here. Shaky depth on the backend has been exacerbated by the likely absence of Djibril Sidibe here. His likely replacement (Benjamin Pavard) is making his WC debut Saturday morning. Hugo Lloris is far from my favorite goalkeeper in this event. He allowed more goals (1) than he had saves against a subpar American team in the Friendly last week. 

Australia is inexperienced, has a new coach and as a result, the Socceroos are considered the longshot in Group C. Qualifying for this World Cup did not come easy as it required two-legged playoffs against Syria and Honduras. Expect an "underdog strategy" to be employed here, however, meaning an all-out assault on the offensive end. That's what worked for them during qualifying and I don't see new HC Bert van Marwijk changing much w/ such limited time to prepare with this team. 8* Over Australia/France 

10* Chi Cubs (8:15 ET): The last time the Cubs came calling to the Gateway City, the Cardinals swept them right out of town. This time should go much differently. I say that knowing full well the Cubs were shut out in their last two games, both against Milwaukee. But St. Louis last two games were no better as they dropped a pair - at home - to the lowly Padres. The revenge angle is something I believe in (see Arizona last night) as it's tough to sweep the same opponent twice in a row, especially if it's a division rival. The Cubs' +89 run differential is the NL's best currently and indicates to me that they are set to make a run to the top of the Central Division. I really like them on Friday.

We have - on paper - what appears to be a strong pitching matchup in this series opener. Let's start w/ the Cubs' Jon Lester, who is 3-0 w/ a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed 1 ER or less in five of his last six starts and comes into tonight working on a 14 inning scoreless streak. Furthermore, he's allowed all of three hits in his last two starts! He has a 1.63 ERA his L8 starts and won't have to worry about facing the Cardinals' top hitter - Jose Martinez - who is back in his native Venezuela on paternity leave.

In each of their last three series, the Cardinals were up against a last place team. Sadly, they were able to go just 4-5 overall and two of the series were here at home. That doesn't bode well when stepping up in class to face what I still consider the Senior Circuit's best team. Michael Wacha is set to face Lester again and while he has been just as sharp of late (1.33 ERA, 0.787 WHIP L3 starts) and unbeaten at home (7-1 TSR), I don't think we'll be seeing a repeat of May 6th when he was able to outduel Lester for a 4-3 win. Yes, Wacha has allowed 2 ER or fewer in an amazing 10 straight starts, but I'll call for that streak to come to a halt tonight as he's up against a lineup averaging an impressive 5.0 rpg on the road this season. In fact, the Cubs "should" be a lot better than only 19-14 away from Wrigley as they're outscoring opponents by two full runs per game while holding them to a .204 average. Lester should handle the heavy lifting here while Anthony Rizzo (18 for 40 lifetime vs. Wacha) and company should give him the requisite amt of support. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): With a terrible run differential (currently -116) and the fewest number of wins in all of MLB (19), it's tough to offer up an endorsement of the Orioles, especially right now as they've lost seven in a row. But they come in laying juice on Friday and that must mean they are in a good spot. They welcome in a Miami team that happens to be the National League's worst. The Marlins did just take three of four (at home) from the Giants to start the week, but they've still been outscored by 106 runs. Playing yesterday while Baltimore had off puts the visitors at a pretty distinct disadvantage here and it should be noted that the O's aren't quite as terrible here at Camden Yards. A "rousing endorsement" I know, but after an off day, they should be able to beat the Marlins at home.

Facing Jose Urena also helps Baltimore's cause Friday. Urena has been one of the best pitchers to bet against this season as his team start record is a horrifc 1-13. He actually hasn't pitched quite as poorly as you might think given that record, but facing an American League lineup w/ the DH won't help matters. Ironically, Urena's one win this season came in a game where he allowed a season-worst 10 hits in 5 IP. That was two starts ago vs. St. Louis. Last time out, he allowed three runs in 6 IP, but Miami still lost 3-1 to San Diego. Coming off a five-hour marathon game vs. the Giants yday (went 16 innings) does this young team no favors today, especially considering a 12-22 road record (-2.2 runs per game!).

Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman has not exactly been Cy Young lately w/ a 9.20 ERA and 1.772 WHIP his L3 starts. But he's had his moments in 2018. He threw a complete game shutout at Oakland earlier in the year and again didn't allow a run over six innings vs. Chicago late last month. He's got a nice KW ratio of late (38-5 L5 starts), which is a good omen. When you're losing more than you're winning, a great closer doesn't matter a whole lot, but it's definitely worth pointing out that closer Zach Britton is back. His absence definitely has a lot to do with this poor start to the season. Him being back isn't likely to change the Orioles' fortune that much (they should probably deal him at the deadline) the rest of the way, but this is the rare series where the team should take care of business. 8* Baltimore

8* Washington (7:05 ET): Both of these teams have been struggling at the plate recently. The Nationals were shut out in both the final game of a series w/ the Giants over the weekend and then the opener of a brief two-game set in New York Tuesday. But at least they were able to then bounce back and earn a split vs. the Yankees by winning 5-4 on Wednesday. Toronto just got swept down in Tampa Bay, scoring all of one run in the last two games. Though it wasn't necessarily a huge help in the two games at Yankee Stadium, I suspect the use of the designated hitter will benefit the Nats this weekend where they will face a much weaker pitching staff, particularly in the back end. Look for the road team to come in and roll tonight. 

 The National League has been a lot better in IL play this season, compared to past years. They haven't won the season series from the AL since '03, but that appears poised to change now w/ the Senior Circuit currently holding a 55-42 advantage. Really, two NL teams in particular have done the most damage and the Nats happen to be one of them (the Pirates, curiously, are the other at 10-2). Washington is 6-1 vs. the American League so far in '18, the only loss coming Tuesday to a good Yankees team. Toronto is an opponent that has been struggling for awhile. Not only were they just swept in the last series, but they are just 17-32 the L49 games. Washington is also one of the better road teams in baseball. Their record is 22-12 and they're outscoring teams by nearly a full run per game. Toronto, meanwhile, continues to be a losing proposition at home (16-19, -5.6 units).

Gio Gonzalez gets the baseball here for the Nats. The team has won his last four starts, even the last one where he clearly was not at his best. Gonzalez lasted only 3 1/3 innings while giving up a season-high four runs. Yet that doesn't change the fact he's been an effective starter for this team. He has a 2.65 ERA and 1.31 WHIP w/ a 75-32 KW ratio in 74 innings of work. He'd gone 7+ innings in each of his three starts prior and allowed just seven runs total his previous six outings. Toronto's offense scored only five runs on 18 hits the last series. They'll counter Gonzalez w/ Aaron Sanchez, who - quite frankly - has not been that effective of late. He has a 5.19 ERA and 1.443 WHIP his L3 starts and has been walking a lot of batters recently (7 in L2 starts). At home, he has yet to win a decision this year in seven tries and it's easy to see why w/ a 1.526 WHIP. Washington is simply the much better team here. 8* Washington

10* Under Iran/Morocco (11:00 AM ET): With all the turmoil surrounding La Roja (Spain), all of a sudden, Group B is a bit of a wide open affair. The two Iberian rivals (Spain and Portugal) were the two presumed favorites to advance to the Round of 16, but w/ Spain firing HC Julen Lopetegui two days before the event was set to begin, Iran and Morocco have been given "new life." If one side were to pick up three points here, it has the potential to be huge. But what I see is an incredibly low-scoring affair, one with possibly no goals scored at all! Certainly, recent form from both sides indicates goal scoring will be difficult to come by in this one. Take the Under.

Morocco overcame being grouped w/ the 2015 African Champs (Ivory Coast) to go undefeated in CAF qualifying and didn't concede a single goal in six matches! That's pretty remarkable. On the back end, they are led by Mehdi Benatia, who has an arguement to be included among the top defenders in this entire tournament. But, as you might have guessed, goal scoring has been a bit of an issue for the Atlas Lions. Three of their first four matches in qualifying were 0-0 draws. Virtually all of their goals in qualifying came in two matches against two completely overmatched sides.

Iran was similarly stingy in qualifying. They allowed just two goals in 10 matches and both game in the final one, once they knew they'd already qualified for the WC. Needless to say, nine straight clean sheets is really impressive and Team Melli can match Morocco in terms of pressing in the midfield. So this figures to be a pretty "ugly" match where neither side will have many scoring opportunities. Also, might the Moroccan players be a little "down" here after it was announced the country lost its bid to host the 2026 WC? Something to consider. 10* Under Iran/Morocco

8* Uruguay (8:00 AM ET): Given what a prohibitive favorite Uruguay is in Group A (which also includes tournament host Russia), I'm a bit surprised to see them priced so low for this opening match. They start w/ an Egypt side that is one of two widely expected NOT to advance past the group stage (Saudi Arabia being the other). Compounding the Egyptians problems Friday is the health of Mohammed Salah, who suffered a shoulder injury in the Champions League final playing for Liverpool. I feel the favorite rolls in this one.

Uruguay has a nice combo of experience and youth that make them the clear favorite in Group A. Consider that La Celeste finished second in the CONMEBOL qualfying despite their two best players - Luis Suarez (four games) and Edinson Cavani (two games) - missing time. Cavani led all South American players w/ 10 goals during WC qualifying. Up the middle, the starting XI has been revamped w/ an infusion of youth. Suarez led his country to a semi-final berth back in 2010 and this year's group certainly appears to be stronger on paper.

With the Egyptian side, all the talk centers around Salah, whose status likely won't be determined until a few hours before kickoff. Salah accounted for 71% of his team's goals during WC qualifying, so his absence would be an incredible blow and I can't see the Pharohs finding the back of the net w/o him. Even if he does make it on the pitch, he's just one player and clearly not healthy. Presence isn't nearly enough to beat a far more talented opponent. Note this is Egypt's 1st WC appearance since 1990 and they come in at #45 in the FIFA rankings. Only a handful of teams in this tournament place lower. Goalkeeper Essam El-Hadary is a nice story, but he's 45 years old. He would be the oldest player to take the pitch in WC history. The current price does not reflect what a mismatch this truly is. 8* Uruguay

Note: the Mets made a pitching change to Jason Vargas, but this play still stands! 

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Diamondbacks had their five-game win streak (scored 51 runs during it!) snapped yday afternoon w/ a 5-4 loss to Pittsburgh. But I expect them to recover quickly in what is an obvious revenge spot against the slumping Mets. Since starting 11-1 for 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, the Mets have gone 17-35, one of the worst records in all of MLB during that time. The team was shutout yday afternoon, 2-0 by the Braves, and that's not a good sign considering an 0-5 record following a shutout loss this season. Overall, the Mets have now lost 10 of their last 11 games. Really, their lone "highlight" since that 11-1 start was sweeping Arizona at home last month. This is the D'backs chance for revenge though and I believe they'll exact it.

Offensively, the Mets have been a disaster this month. Yesterday was the third time they've been shutout in June alone and they've gone 12 consecutive games w/o scoring more than four runs. Incredibly, they've scored only 19 runs - total - in those 12 games. In addition to being shutout three times, they've also been held to just one run in four other games during that stretch. This all has to be "music to the ears" of today's starter for the D'backs, Matt Koch, who tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball in his last home start. He did not face the Mets in the previous series. 

Arizona has some work to do at the plate as well (they rank 30th in MLB in team batting average), but we've already started to see them improve that number by scoring all those runs this week. The increase in offensive production not coincidentally coincides w/ the return of John Jay to the lineup as the leadoff man. The D'backs have been a strong home team this year, thanks in large part to allowing just 3.6 rpg here. They'll now face Jason Vargas, not Steven Matz, and Vargas has generally been pretty bad this year as is evident by his 7.71 ERA and 1.747 WHIP. He's even worse on the road w/ those numbers climbing to 10.34 and 1.978 respectively. He's yet to last more than five innings in any start this season and this is a hitter-friendly ballpark, generally speaking. The D'backs also have the far better bullpen of the two teams here. 10* Arizona 

8* Run Line Oakland (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the A's +1.5. Perhaps I'm being too stubborn here. But my belief in a simple revenge system has me on Oakland again here. Since beating Houston 8-1, back on April 27th, the A's have had no luck against this division rival - at all. Last night marked their seventh consecutive loss to the Astros, and generally speaking, most of the games haven't been close. Last night wasn't (13-5 final) and the A's have now been outscored 62-17 during that seven-game losing streak. This afternoon finds them facing the prospect of being swept for a second straight time - at home, again, no less - by Houston. That just doesn't happen often. I'll say Oakland does no worse than 1-run loss here. 

Now it definitely won't be easy as the A's must face Justin Verlander. This comes on the heels of facing Gerrit Cole yday. Talk about a tall order. Of course, it really didn't matter what pitcher they were facing last night given their own starter (Paul Blackburn) gave up eight runs while getting only four outs. It was 10-0 by the end of the second inning and, at that point, any comeback attempts is rather futile. The story was somewhat similar on Tuesday where the Astros jumped out to a 3-0 lead after the first inning and didn't need to worry about "looking back." Obviously, I'm hopeful that we get a better start today from Frankie Montas and he can mitigate or out & out prevent early damage from taking place. Montas is 3-0 this season, with a 1.25 ERA and 0.877 WHIP. So it's not like he hasn't pitched well previously. 

Now, Houston is a definite step up in class from the teams Montas has faced previously. His last two starts have both been against Kansas City. The margin for error here against Verlander, who leads MLB in both ERA and WHIP, is slim. But Montas seems "up" for the challenge as he's allowed just three runs in 21 2/3 innings. As good as Houston has looked in the first two games of this series, eventually the odds have to catch up w/ them (right?) and they're due to drop a game to their AL West rival. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Run Line Oakland (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the A's at +1.5. Ever since taking the first head to head meeting of the season (8-1 on April 27th), the A's have had no luck at all against the mighty Astros, losing six straight times to them and getting outscored 49-12 (!) in the process. The last four losses have all come here at home, including 6-3 last night as scoring the game's first run didn't even matter (Houston responded w/ a four-run 2nd inning). Tonight, the Astros figure to be a VERY public side considering Gerrit Cole is pitching. While it's tough to argue that Cole and the Astros shouldn't be heavily favored here, the revenge angle has me believing Oakland will do no worse than a one-run loss in this spot. Take the run line (+1.5). 

Paul Blackburn being on the mound here definitely gives the home team a lift. While it came against the lowly Royals, Blackburn's first start of '18 probably could not have gone any better. He went six innings and allowed just one run (on a solo HR) and three hits. Oakland won the game 4-1 and would go onto give up just seven runs total in that four-game series. Houston is obviously a major step up in class from KC (in fact, I'd argue there isn't a larger step up in class from one series to the next in all of MLB!), but this A's team is better than you probably think. Plus, since coming over from Seattle last year, Blackburn has never lost at home in six tries. The A's have dropped B2B games just once this month and are allowing just 3.7 rpg at home for the year. Seems like the +1.5 is nice luxury to have. 

I won't go through a complete run down of Cole's expolits, lest I want to dissuade you from fading them in this spot. He has been the best starter in a rotation that has been the best in all of MLB so far. Houston is - incredibly - outscoring its opposition by a 2:1 margin on the road this season. The team is actually underperforming, in terms of wins and losses, when measured by run differential. Having outscored opponents by a MLB-best 130 runs, they've played to the level of a 49-win team (current record is 43-25). The issue has been them going 6-12 in one-run games, the WORST such record in all of baseball. My "gut" (which isn't getting any smaller, by the way!) tells me that the 'Stros are due to start winning their fair share of one-run decisions moving forward. This game very well could be the start of such a run. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Minnesota (7:10 ET): I had the Over in last night's series opener between the Twins and Tigers, which thankfully cashed due to a flurry of runs scored in the late innings. The final score was 6-4 in favor of Minnesota Tuesday and I expect them to win again here on Wednesday. A two-run home loss wasn't the only bad news for Detroit as the team lost Miguel Cabrera for the remainder of the season as the slugger ruptured a biceps tendon on a swing last night. While Cabrera's production had certainly "fallen off" in recent seasons, manager Ron Gardenhire called the injury "a big blow for our ball club." He's right and now Gardenhire is poised to lose to the team he once managed yet again. It's not like the Tigers had been performing well at the plate w/ Cabrera in the lineup anyway. Going into last night, the team was batting a collective .202 its last seven games, scoring two runs or less four times in that stretch. 

Without the former batting champ, the home team's offensive struggles figure to continue tonight against Jose Berrios. Berrios has pitched very well this season and his 8-5 TSR isn't really indicative of his overall performance. He brings a 0.92 WHIP into Wednesday after throwing a complete game last week vs. the White Sox, which came w/ 10 strikeouts. It was the fourth time the Twins have won in his last five starts w/ Berrios going at least 7 1/3 innings and giving up two runs or fewer four times during that stretch. One of those came at the expense of the Tigers as on 5.21, he went eight innings and allowed just two runs on three hits. The Twins won 4-2. Safe to say, with a 44-5 KW ratio in those L5 starts, Berrios has emerged as the clear ace of the Minnesota starting rotation.

Matthew Boyd, arguably Detroit's best starter this year, will get the nod opposite Berrios tonight. The Tigers are 3-0 in Boyd's last three starts and he has a 0.991 WHIP at home this season (six starts). But look for him to struggle early here as Twins leadoff man Brian Dozier has hit Boyd well in the past (.406 career average!) and that inevitably will lead to more trouble for the Tigers. Including last night, Minnesota has now scored six or more runs in each of the last four games played here at Comerica Park. They're also 10-2 head to head w/ the Tigers the L12 meetings overall. 8* Minnesota 

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies held off the Rockies last night for a 5-4 win in a battle of struggling ballclubs. The Phils had lost four in a row prior to beating Milwaukee (here at home) on Sunday while the Rockies' losing streak has now hit five in a row (they were swept at home by Arizona over the weekend). Tonight, we have a battle of struggling starters (both 0-3 TSR L3 starts), but I'll side w/ the home team as I don't see Colorado's woes being permanently cured anytime soon. While the pitching improves rather dramatically outside the confines of hitter-friendly Coors Field, just as predictable is the decline on the other side of the ledger, that being the number of runs they score. Homefield advantage means a lot to these teams as Philly is now 21-11 at Citizens Bank Park this season. Go w/ them.

Nick Pivetta gets the nod here for the Phils and despite him having no success recently, he's pitched well here at home throughout the course of the season. We're talking a 2.20 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in seven starts. Five of those have resulted in team victories. His last two starts were both on the road, so that partly explains the lack of success. But, more than anything, it's been a lack of run support that's doomed Pivetta. His last home start saw him give up just two runs and the team still lost (5-3 to Toronto). There's been only one start at home all year that saw Pivetta allow more than two runs. Three times, he hasn't allowed any! Going up against a Colorado lineup that is averaging just 3.9 rpg away from home (and batting a collective .222) seems pretty ideal.

It was pretty interesting to see the Phillies come away w/ the 5-4 victory last night despite getting outhit 11-4. But they were never really in danger until the ninth inning, which is when the Rockies scored three of their runs. Starter Aaron Nola was dominant yet again. That's just the way things have gone for the Rockies of late as they've dropped 9 of 11 and been outscored 41-24 during their five-game losing streak. Note they've now been outscored by 43 runs over the course of the season, meaning they should feel fortunate to even be within two games of .500. Starter Tyler Anderson, despite being off a solid outing, has not won a decision in almost a month and has a 5.27 ERA his L7 starts overall. The Phillies are simply the better team here. 10* Philadelphia

8* Run Line Oakland (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the A's at +1.5. Oakland has legit revenge here as they were swept by Houston, back in early May, here at home. After taking the first head to head matchup of the year, 8-1, they've lost five straight to the 'Stros while getting outscored 43-9 in the process! But for tonight, I think they'll do no worse than a one-run loss. Yes, Houston comes in riding a five-game win streak and has the best run differential in all of baseball (+127). But they've curiously struggled in one run games to this point (just 6-12). Meanwhile, Oakland has outperformed its (admittedly low) expectations so far as they come into this series sporting both a winning record and positive run differential.

Aiding the A's case here tonight is the fact they'll have Daniel Mengden on the bump. Mengden, despite an 0-2 TSR vs. Houston this year and coming off a rough outing, is probably the "right man for the job" in ended this head to head losing streak. Even after giving up six runs last Wednesday vs. Texas (allowed 4 HR's!), he still sports a 2.54 ERA and 0.854 WHIP his L7 starts. At home, his ERA and WHIP are 2.67 and 0.87, so I fully anticipate he'll keep his team in the game tonight. The last time he faced the Astros, two solo home runs were the only mistakes he made in a 4-1 loss. This A's team just took three of four from the lowly Royals over the weekend, so they'll enter the series w/ some confidence, especially with their top starter on the mound for the opener. 

Statistically, Houston has been the top road team in all of baseball this season, outscoring opponents by a 2:1 margin. But that success has little to do w/ tonight's starter, Lance McCullers Jr, who carries a 5.55 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in seven road starts into this contest. True to form, McCullers only previous start in Oakland was not one of his finest. He also hasn't been particularly great his L3 starts overall. While facing a trio of first place teams, McCullers turned in a 6.61 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in that trifecta of outings. His last road start saw him allow seven runs in Cleveland and three home runs. He allowed two more HR's in his last start. I can see the A's "stealing one here." 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the White Sox +1.5. Perhaps, in retrospect, it was unwise for me to play Chicago last night, even w/ the benefit of them getting the additional 1.5 runs at a great price. There was no answer for Indians' starter Carlos Carrasco, who shut them out over seven innings w/ 11 strikeouts. The White Sox had just two hits for the game and have won just one time against Cleveland - in 11 tries - dating back to last September. They're 0-4 against them here in 2018 (outscored 29-10), but with the revenge angle still in play - and being 5-0 off their L5 losses - I believe the White Sox +1.5 is still the way to go here as Tuesday is the game where they'll have the "easiest" pitching matchup. 

Now Indians starter Adam Plutko does come in w/ a 3-0 TSR for the year. His last start came in the previous series vs. the White Sox and Cleveland won that game, 9-6. But that was no thanks to Plutko as he gave up five runs in five innings, not to mention two home runs. He's allowed a total of 5 HR's in his three starts. After starting against the White Sox, Plutko was sent back down to Triple-A where he tossed a no-hitter on June 2nd (was perfect through eight innings). But this is the big league level now. I also still have legit concerns over a Cleveland bullpen that currently ranks 30th (i.e. last) in ERA. The Tribe are just 2-3 following a shutout victory this season and 3-8 when priced between -125 and -175 as the road team. The money line today, when compared to last night, makes it appear as if this is the game in the series where they are most vulnerable. 

Veteran James Shields will toe the rubber for the White Sox in this one. While he was roughed up to the tune of seven runs in his last outing, Shields deserves better than just one win in 13 tries this season. That one win came on Opening Day too, but was the first of seven quality starts from the 37-year old. It should be noted that White Sox pitching has limited the opposition to four runs or less in eight of the last nine games and just 10 runs total the L4 games combined. Cleveland comes in batting only .225 on the road this season and has topped five runs only one time in its last nine games. On paper, the White Sox seem overmatched in this one, but I feel they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

10* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): The Brewers got a "taste of their own medicine" last night and now are no longer in first place in the NL Central. What I mean by that - is a team that had been feasting on winning close games - dropped one in 11 innings last night - 7-2 to the Cubs. Now that final score is misleading when you consider the Cubs scored five runs in the deciding 11th frame (helped me cash the Over!) and Milwaukee led 2-1 going into the eighth. In fact, twice the Cubs rallied from one-run deficits before finally putting things away in the 11th. Given the respective run differentials here, it was only a matter of time before the Cubs (1st in NL in run diff) passed the Brew Crew, but w/ the home team still having revenge for a prior sweep (took place in Wrigley back in April), I'm on them again Tuesday. 

Milwaukee is now 23-14 since going 1-7 against the Cubs back in April. You can now make it 1-8 following last night and that probably could go a long way in determining the NL Central. Incredibly, the Brew Crew have scored more than two runs in only one of the nine head to head meetings w/ the Cubs this season, that being (not ironically) their lone win, which was a 5-4 decision here at Miller Park back on April 6th. The team is better than what it's shown vs. the Cubs, that's for sure, and can still claim to be 17-9 off a loss this season. What transpired last night was quite rare in that the Brewers' bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season (tops in NL in ERA) and the reliever that gave up the key hit in the eighth - Josh Hader - had previously allowed only two hits in 36 at bats vs. left-handed hitters (Jason Heyward got him).

The offensive woes that have plagued Milwaukee against the Cubs so far this season should take a turn for the better Tuesday. That's because they'll be up against Tyler Chatwood, who is probably the weak link of the Cubs' starting rotation. He has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts and a 3.86 ERA for the year, but what sticks out like a "sore thumb" is his 1.783 WHIP. He's had major control issues, especially of late, with a stunning 22 walks in his L4 starts (which have spanned just 14 1/3 innings). Those 22 walks have come against just 13 strikeouts as well, obviously a terrible ratio for any pitcher. Chatwood has been extremely fortunate of late to still be successful, but I look for that to run out tonight. He has a stunning 56 walks in 58 1/3 IP this season and has walked at least five batters in 8 of his 12 starts. The Brewers counter w/ Chase Anderson, who has a 2.79 ERA his L3 starts vs. the Cubs. Sadly, the offense failed to score for him in any of those three contests (two of them coming this year), but that will change here. 10* Milwaukee

8* Over Twins/Tigers (7:10 ET): The American League Central has the potential to be historically bad this season as I don't see anyone outside of Cleveland finishing north of .500 in this division at at season's end. Of the remaining quartet of teams, these two are the more competitive as both Chicago and Kansas City seem destined for 90+ loss (maybe 100+ loss?) seasons. Speaking of the Indians, the Tigers just played them over the weekend and dropped two of three here at home. Overall, it's not been a great stretch of baseball in the Motor City, particularly for the offense which is batting a collective .202 the L7 games while averaging just 2.9 runs. Starting Tuesday, they welcome in a Minnesota club that hasn't been a whole lot better. When these teams faced off in the Twin Cities late last month, all three games went Under (Twins won 2 of 3). I envision a higher scoring game taking place tonight at Comerica Park. Take the Over.

Facing Jake Odorizzi should help the home team break out of its offensive slump here. Odorizzi has not pitched well of late for the Twins w/ an 8.36 ERA and 1.714 WHIP his L3 starts. Not surprisingly, with those numbers, the team lost all three games. He's also allowed four home runs during that stretch. Odorizzi hasn't gone particularly deep into his starts either as he's gone a full six innings only once in his last seven appearances. That's not great news when you consider the Twins' bullpen is still in the bottom 10 in ERA. In fact, both bullpens are in the bottom 10 here. 

I should mention that prior to being off yday, the Tigers had played 18 games in 17 days and gone 10-8 overall during that stretch. This despite the L3 series coming against the Yankees, Red Sox and Indians, all likely playoff teams. But it certainly appeared as if they ran out of gas in the Cleveland series and against a strong starting rotation, they had little answer at the plate. At home, they do average a solid 4.7 rpg though. Starting for them tonight will be converted reliever Blaine Hardy. He struggled his last time out, giving up five runs, albeit to a strong offensive team in Boston. Still not sure we can trust Hardy, however. He did pitch the opener of the last series between these teams and allowed only two runs in five innings. But we shall see how the Twins do now that they get to face him for a second time. While all three games went Under in Minnesota last month, the Over is 7-0-1 the L8 meetings here in Detroit. 8* Over Twins/Tigers

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the White Sox +1.5. Like Milwaukee, the White Sox have revenge here as they were swept in three-game set in Cleveland late last month. Another similarity to that Cubs-Brewers matchup is that this one too has been quite one-sided w/ 9 of the past 10 matchups going the Indians' way. Unlike Milwaukee though, Chicago is a decided underdog here and probably deserves to be. After all, they are a bottom five team in all of baseball in both number of wins and run differential. But that's where the RL comes in as I don't see the Sox doing any worse here than a one-run loss. It's really difficult to sweep the same opponent twice, especially a division foe. Being able to get the +1.5 at this kind of price is pretty remarkable.

Chicago has won four of its last six games, including two of three in Boston over the weekend. Obviously, they were sizable underdogs on the ML in both wins. They cashed in at +255 in Friday's opener (won 1-0) and then north of +200 again yday in the 5-2 victory. While they have yet to win this year as a ML home dog of +175 or higher (0-3), Cleveland is just 3-2 when priced north of -175 on the road. All three of those games for the White Sox came against Houston, who is in a different class than the Indians. Again, Chicago has been playing better baseball this month, turning in a 6-4 record despite facing two first place teams. That record has netted quite the ROI as they've been a sizable ML dog in every game. 

Cleveland just took two of three in Detroit and has won four of its last five overall. They lead what is shaping up to be a historically weak AL Central by five games now and its a lead they probably know they can maintain "no matter what" throughout the course of this season. I suspect the Indians will win nowhere near the number of games they did last year, but then again, all that's important for them is the playoffs (early exit last year despite homefield advantage). Carlos Carrasco gets the starting nod Monday and while he's off a dominant effort his last time out, it's difficult to trust a pitcher that allowed a total of 11 runs in his two starts prior. A big difference between the 2018 Indians and last year is that this groups ranks dead last in bullpen ERA (by a wide margin) after ranking first in that category in '17. So don't rule out a late Chicago rally in this one either. The White Sox send Lucas Giolito to the mound here and while his numbers might seem to indicate that it's been a rough year, he's actually given up 3 ER or fewer in five of his last eight starts. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox

8* Run Line Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Brewers +1.5. The last time the Brew Crew met the Cubs, it was not a pleasant experience. At least for them, it wasn't. They were swept in a four-game set at Wrigley and shut out in three of the games! In fact, they scored a total of just two runs for the entire series. But that was Wrigley and this is Miller Park. Milwaukee is 18-11 at home this season and despite being 1-7 head to head w/ the Cubs in 2018 (did lose 3 of 4 to them here in early April), they still have a half-game lead in the division. Run differential suggests that the Cubs are the better side here, and over the long-term they might be. But my "gut" says the Brewers do no worse here than a one-run loss. 

Both of the previous series between the teams took place all the way back in April. Since that time, the Brewers have gone 23-13 overall and basically led the NL Central during that entire timeframe. They enter this series having just taken two of three at Philadelphia (the only loss coming yday, by one run), totaling 24 runs in the pair of wins (scored 12 in each game). Getting back to yday's one-run defeat, the Brewers have been involved in quite the number of one-run affairs this season. Their 22 such games are most in the National League and they've gone 15-7 in those contests. Even if you feel they are "due" to lose one, that result would be just fine here given how we're playing Monday's matchup. Milwaukee is also 26-13 in night games this season. They were #1 in all of MLB in net units going into yday at +15.2 for the season. 

The Cubs have won 8 of 10, but lost yday, 7-1 to the Pirates. That loss cost them what would have been a sweep, not to mention first place in the division. Tonight, they'll send out Jose Quintana to the mound. He's off a season-best 10 K's in his last outing, but still has only a 4.20 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in 12 starts overall. Brewers starter Junior Guerra has been better of late (0.944 WHIP L3 starts) too. These two faced off in the last series between the teams and while Quintana got the better of Guerra, the latter gave up only one run on three hits (in 6 IP). The revenge angle is strong here and three of the previous eight matchups have been one-run games. 8* Run Line Milwaukee (+1.5)

8* Over Cubs/Brewers (8:10 ET): Additionally, I like the Over in this matchup. With the Brewers getting shutout in three of the four games the last series these teams played (scored only two runs total), it should come as little shock to hear that all four games stayed Under the total. Just like the Cubs are 7-1 head to head against the Brewers in '18, the Under is also 7-1 in those eight matchups. Interestingly enough, the one Over took place in Milwaukee's lone victory in the season series, a 5-4 final. Other than that, they have failed to score more than two runs in any one game vs. the Cubs. Incredibly, they've been shutout FIVE times and scored just nine runs in the eight games! But I believe they'll "get" to Jose Quintana tonight, helping this game finish Over the total.

Now history says Quintana will pitch well here. He's owned Milwaukee since coming over from the other side of Chicago (played for White Sox), going 4-1 w/ a 0.63 ERA in six outings. He's faced them twice this season and not allowed a single run in 13 IP! But, as mentioned in the analysis above, his overall numbers remain fairly mediocre for the season (4.20 ERA, 1.368 WHIP). In the first two games of the last series, the Brewers certainly seemed to "rediscover" their offense, scoring 24 times in a pair of wins at Philadelphia (12 each game). Quintana has pitched past the sixth inning in just two of his 12 starts this season and gone less than five in one-third of them. 

I mentioned in the above analysis that Guerra had been better than Quintana recently and that's definitely true as not only does he own a 0.944 WHIP his last three starts, but also a 2.54 ERA his last five. In four career starts vs. the Cubs, his ERA is 1.61. I do suspect he'll outpitch Quintana in this spot, but he'll also be facing a Cubs lineup that is averaging more than 5.0 rpg on the road. The Cubs are seventh in all of MLB in runs scored this year as well as second in team batting average, first in on base percentage and sixth in slugging. It's going to take some runs for the Brewers to beat them (and I believe they'll score enough here to do no worse than a one-run loss). They certainly should score more here than what we've previously seen from them against the Cubs. 8* Over Cubs/Brewers

8* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): After taking Friday's series opener in relatively convincing fashion (won 7-3), the Dodgers lost to the Braves last night by a score of 5-3. I continue to maintain that the Dodgers are far better than their .500 record would seem to indicate as they have a run differential of +43 that is actually tops in their division. While both the Rockies and Giants are also 32-32 on the year (same record as LA), those teams have respective run differentials of -37 and -29. The one team ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West, Arizona, had their number early in the season. But despite the injuries and heavy losses at the pay window, I'm nowhere near ready to sell on Dodger Blue. Take them Sunday.

While the Dodgers have underperformed to this point, the Braves have been one of baseball's most pleasant surprises. They are 37-27 and have their division's best run differential (+64) as well. Their 21-15 road record has been huge as has been the pitching of today's starter Sean Newcomb. But realize that a lot of Newcomb's success has been predicated on run support as the team has scored a total of 59 runs in his 12 starts. Now, Newcomb has largely held up his end of the bargain as well by turning in a 2.49 ERA and 1.194 WHIP. But it's also easy to win when the offense scores 14 times as it did in his last outing. Newcomb's recent strikeout numbers are hardly impressive either; he has almost the same number of walks (11) as he does K's (14) over his L4 starts.

The Dodgers send Ross Stripling to the mound Sunday and he's been even more impressive than Newcomb this season, especially of late. Over his L3 starts, Stripling is 3-0 w/ a 0.48 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. He's allowed just five runs total his last five starts and one of them was unearned. Last time out, he tossed five shutout innings of four-hit ball at Pittsburgh w/ seven strikeouts. His KW ratio is far better than Newcomb's as it's 42-2 those L5 starts. Atlanta has not won a series at Dodgers Stadium dating back to 2012 and home is where the Dodgers are likely to improve the most moving forward. Go w/ them here. 8* LA Dodgers

analysis soon

8* Run Line Cincinnati (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Reds at +1.5. It was NOT "lucky #13" for the Reds yday as they lost for an unconscionable 13th straight time to the division rival Cardinals. That "baker's dozen" of defeats includes an 0-9 mark this season and on Sunday they'll be looking to avoid what would be their THIRD sweep at the hands of the Cards already. Note I did cash Cincinnati +1.5 in the opener of this three-game set as they took the Redbirds into extra innings (lost 7-6). That's what I'll do again here today as you just don't see one team sweep another twice very often, let alone three times (especially when it's division rivals). 

It has obviously not been a good season in Cincinnati as the team is now 22-43 overall (season worse 21 games below .500), its worst 65-game start since 1934. Of course, they opened 2018 by losing 18 of their first 21 games (which included both prior sweeps at the hands of the Cardinals) and fired manager Bryan Price quickly. Under interim Jim Riggleman, things have been better as the team had basically been playing at a .500 level prior to this series. Incredibly, the Reds have lost to the Cardinals 11 straight times at home now. That has to be "due" to change, right? Maybe Anthony DeScalafani being back in the rotation is what the team needs. In his first start back from Tommy John surgery, DeSclafani wasn't exactly great five days ago against Colorado (allowed 4 runs in 5 IP). But he's maybe the only pitcher on staff w/ a history of success against the Cardinals. Though he's not faced them since 2016, his career record is 4-1 vs. St. Louis (w/ a 2.13 ERA).

The Redbirds won six straight Carlos Martinez's starts earlier this season, but he got hurt and missed almost a month of action. Like DeSclafani, he made his return to the rotation last Tuesday to less than stellar results. Martinez made it through only four innings and issued five walks while admitting to throwing the ball rather tentatively as he was afraid of reinjuring his arm. Velocity was way down. On the back end, the Cardinals are still w/o closer Bud Norris, which could conceivably open things up for a late Reds' rally, if need be. That's what happened Friday, leading to the winning RL ticket. The home team does no worse than a one-run loss Sunday. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Cincinnati (4:10 ET): Fortunately, I had the Reds on the run line (+1.5) last night, which allowed me to cash them in a one-run loss in extra innings (fell 7-6 in 10). They rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game, so truthfully I was fortunate to cash as the Reds never led. Losing to the Cardinals has become an all-too "familiar script" in Cincinnati as head to head they're now 0-8 this season vs. their NL Central rival. Certainly, this can't go on forever right? Note while they never led last night, they did outhit the Redbirds, 13-8. Facing Michael Wacha today will be a challenge, but I feel that this time the Reds break through w/ that elusive victory over St. Louis. 

It's obviously not been a good season in the Queen City thus far. The Reds were the first team to fire its manager, doing so after only 18 games. At the time, the club was off to a franchise worst 3-15 start. Ironically, the first series under interim manager Jim Riggleman was a sweep at the hands of the Cardinals, the second time that happened in 2018. But since that disastrous 3-18 opening to the campaign, the Reds are at least a more respectable 19-24 overall. Today, they'll send Luis Castillo to the bump. They've gone 6-7 in his 13 starts, though they've dropped the last two. But both were on the road and prior to, Castillo had allowed 2 ER or fewer in five consecutive outings and turned in a 4-1 team start record. He did face St. Louis earlier this year and gave up only three runs in 5 IP.

This losing streak to the Cardinals extends beyond this season. It's now 12 straight losses to their division rival for the Reds, which is almost unconscionable. Wacha has certainly had their number. He's 10-1 all-time against them, including 9-0 his L12 starts (12-0 TSR!). His last loss to the Reds came all the way back in 2014! Last time out, Wacha took a no-hitter into the ninth inning (vs. Pittsburgh), continuing what has been a strong stretch for him. But, as far as the team is concerned, today marks the first time in over a month that St. Louis is in off B2B wins. I just have to believe the Reds are "due" to win here. 8* Cincinnati

10* Tampa Bay (4:10 ET): Today "has" to be the day for Tampa Bay, right? Seattle beat them by one-run (again) last night as both wins in this series have come by that exact margin. The Rays are now 0-5 head to head w/ the Mariners this season, four of those losses being of the "dreaded" one-run variety. Quite frankly, Seattle has lived off one-run wins this season. They're won a MLB-high 20 such games and have also been involved in the most such decisions (29). They're also 6-0 in extra inning games. That certainly helps explain how they're in front of a Houston team that Pythagorean win expectations says should be THIRTEEN games ahead! I'm willing to "stick to my guns" here and reiterate how I'm just not a believer in what has been a very lucky M's team. 

Unlike the last two games, the Rays will go w/ an actual starter on Saturday. Manager Kevin Cash elected to go the "opener" route both Thursday and Friday, but to no avail. By "opener," I mean that Cash used a reliever to start the game, but only for a couple of innings before turning to the bullpen. Such is life w/ a Rays' rotation that is somewhat in shambles due to injuries. But here, they'll turn to their most effective starter of the 2018 campaign, that being Blake Snell, who owns a 7-3 record to go along w/ a 2.36 ERA and 0.943 WHIP. Opposing teams are batting only .220 at Tropicana Field this season and Snell has certainly played a key role in that as he has a ridiculous 0.86 ERA and 0.83 WHIP at home this season (five starts). Over his L3 starts, Snell has allowed just one run (and it was unearned) in 17 2/3 innings of work. 

In his last start, Snell faced off against the same pitcher he'll go up against today. That would be Felix Hernandez. Seattle won the game, 2-1 (by one run, of course!), but that doesn't tell the "true" story. Snell tossed six scoreless innings of two-hit ball w/ 12 strikeouts before the bullpen blew the game in the bottom of the eighth. Hernandez obviously pitched well too; he went eight innings and gave up just one run on five hits. But this is not the "King Felix" of old, I assure you. He'd allowed 4 ER or more in each of his five starts previous and has a 5.33 ERA (and 1.332 WHIP) for the year. The numbers on the road are even worse (7.03 ERA, 1.531 WHIP), so the fact Hernandez has a better TSR (8-5 compared to 7-6) than Snell is highly misleading. I really can't overstate how fortunate Seattle has been to this point as their 20 one-run victories are the most in MLB HISTORY through the first 63 games of any season. Snell has a 0.55 career ERA vs. them, so for the first time in June and the first time this year vs. the Mariners, the Rays will win in what shapes up as a massive revenge spot. 10* Tampa Bay