10* Miami OH (7:00 ET): I think it would be fair to say that these teams represent the two biggest disappointments in the MAC this season. Miami actually finished tied atop the MAC East last year (w/ Ohio) and did so despite starting that season 0-6 SU (won final 6 reg season games!). Eastern Michigan ended a nearly 30-year bowl drought by going 7-6 SU itself. But in 2017, things have not according to plan either Oxford or Ypsilanti. Eastern Michigan is already eliminated from bowl contention and that can be pinned on the fact they've been quite unsuccessful in "close games." Despite having a positive scoring differential in conference play, their record is only 1-5! Six of their losses this year have come by a touchdown or less. Miami, on the other hand, still has a shot at bowl eligibility (must win final 2 games) and that's a big reason I'm on them here. 

All the signs were there for an Eastern Michigan decline this season as LY's team won five games by a TD or less and pulled four outright upsets. They really "snuck up" on the oddsmakers as well by going 10-3 ATS. Remember that this program is just two years removed from going 1-11 SU! Chris Creighton (4th year here) has them pointed in the right direction and the Eagles probably will be improved NEXT season. But 2018 seems like a long ways away for a team that had much bigger aspirations this year. I wonder about their psyche as for the first time this season, they were beaten by double digits in a MAC game, this coming last week against Central Michigan. QB Brogan Roback threw FIVE interceptions in the 42-30 loss up in Mt. Pleasant. The loss also sealed the fact that the Eagles won't be returning to the postseason this year.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Miami got its starter back LW vs. Akron and you saw the difference that made in a 24-14 win and cover over Akron. Gus Ragland was expected to lead this team to better things in 2017 and while the MAC East is no longer attainable, a bowl bid still is. Ragland has one of the top receivers, not just in the MAC but the entire country, to throw to in James Gardner (886 yds, 10 TDs). Despite a -2 TO margin, the RedHawks had no problem winning going away LW (led 24-7 entering the 4Q) w/ a 420-278 edge in total yards. Defensively, the RedHawks are pretty good at stopping the pass (have not allowed a single 300 yd game YTD) and they also registered six sacks last week vs. Akron. Miami will be heavily favored next week to beat hideous Ball State in their finale, so a win here all but assures they go 6-6 SU and become bowl eligible. They're 5-1 ATS their last six games where the line is a field goal or less (either way) and I'll be laying the short number here. 10* Miami OH

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): We've got a mismatch as big as Texas itself on the Tuesday NBA card and not even home court advantage can help the lowly Mavs against the Spurs. Dallas enters tonight's tilt tied w/ Atlanta for the worst record in the league (2-12 SU), though admittedly there are worse teams. But don't let that minor detail fool you into thinking the Mavs have a chance tonight. They failed to cash as home dogs Saturday vs. Cleveland, so a superior opponent in the same price range seems like a solid value to me. The Mavs also failed to cover on Saturday, losing 112-99 as 10-point dogs at Oklahoma City. Meanwhile, San Antonio had zero difficulty against another bottom feeder in its last game as they routed Chicago 133-94 on Saturday. Lay the points. 

It seems as if the oddsmakers have been slow to catch onto the Mavericks' decline as they stand at 3-11 ATS overall, including 1-6 at home. They're being outscored by 8.2 PPG overall and that's against opposition that is mostly inferior to the team they'll face tonight. Offensively, there are big issues in 'Big D' w/ the team ranking 26th in efficiency. They are one of five teams currently not averaging at least one point per possession. But defensively, they are actually worse as they come into this game ranked 29th in efficiency. It's a struggle to even get the 39-year Dirk Nowitzki on the court these days as Rick Carlisle now has to lean on the likes of Harrison Barnes and rookie Dennis Smith, Jr. Expect this team to have a high draft pick next summer. 

As for the Spurs, they've managed to go 8-5 SU despite being w/o Kwahi Leonard and Tony Parker. Their offense has really picked up of late w/ the third best efficiency rating in the league over the L5 games, so I expect them to slice and dice that porous Mavs defense. The Spurs defense, as per usual, ranks near the top of the league at #6 in efficiency. There was a four-game losing streak earlier in the year (included Boston and Golden State), but other than that, San Antonio has been as good as usual. Consider they were w/o roughly one-third of the roster and still beat Chicago by 39 points on Saturday. That's actually important to note as the Mavs are pretty comparable to the Bulls these days. 8* San Antonio

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I certainly view the Wild as an "early season disappointment" given this was a 106-point team last year. Granted, I did expect them to slip some, but not to the point they'd be in last place in the Central Division. However, there are signs that upward mobility is set to take hold as the club has won B2B games, including 1-0 at Philadelphia on Saturday. That was their second straight shutout on the road (beat Montreal 3-0 last Thurs) and now they get to play host to the Flyers Tuesday. Perhaps we should have expected the Flyers to lose that game to the Wild Saturday as they've won B2B games only one time thus far. It's essentially been alternating wins and losses all year (have lost B2B games twice), but that pattern won't hold tonight. 

Minnesota has essentially been a "two-man show" of late. Jason Zucker has scored the team's last six goals while Dubnyk has stopped 90 of the last 92 shots he's seen. He made a season-best 41 saves against Montreal last Thursday, then followed it up w/ 32 more against the Flyers Saturday. Now, after dropping both meeting to the Flyers last season, the Wild are in position to return the favor tonight. Dubnyk will of course be in goal again and it's best to ride a hot goalie like him. As for the offense, Zucker may be carrying things, but I expect the other players to start stepping up as well. The team should be thrilled to be back at home for the first time in 10 days.

Philly has been shut out twice in its last five games, not a good sign when facing a red-hot goaltender. They are 3-0 this season after being held to one goal or less the previous game, but this home and home is a unique situation. The Flyers have actually fallen into last place tie themselves in the Metro. It's a thin line between last and second place, but you could say the same for Minnesota in the Central as well. Both teams have outscored the opposition this season. But I don't expect the Flyers to maintain their 4th place ranking in goals allowed (Wild are 7th) moving forward and Brian Elliott has already been outdueled by Dubnyk once. It should happen again here with the scene shifting to the "Land of 10,000 Lakes." 8* Minnesota

8* Kent State (7:00 ET): I probably don't need to tell you that Kent is not a very good football team. Of course, injuries have definitely taken a toll on the Golden Flashes, which is why they come into tonight sporting only a 2-8 SU record. However, for this game, I do believe there is some value in taking them. Central Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth last week by pulling its second consecutive minor upset, this one over Eastern Michigan (42-30). So there's a natural letdown that follows for a Chippewas team that has won three straight and four of its last five overall. This being Kent State's home finale, I don't think they'll be lacking in motivation and the number is generous, about four points too many according to my own power rankings. Take the points. 

Kent's biggest issue all season has been at the quarterback position where an injury to Nick Holley has really rendered the offense pretty impotent. Out of 130 FBS teams, the Golden Flashes rank 129th in both yards and scoring. QB George Bollas has a very ugly 0-5 TD-INT ratio the L2 games, though Kent did scored 20 points in its last game, it's most against any FBS opponent all season. It should be noted that game (at Western Michigan) would have been a lot closer than the 48-20 final were it not for THREE defensive scores against the Golden Flashes. It is imperative here that Bollas take care of the football as CMU has 16 interceptions on the year, five of them coming last week! However, as I've stated so many times in the past, turnovers are such a volatile statistic. One week or season, they can totally be in your favor, while the next you're on the wrong end. I'll call for things to go MUCH better in that department this week for Kent.

Central Michigan may have a "ball-hawking" type defense, but it also gives up plenty of points. They've allowed 23 points in all but one game this season (to Ball State). To go back to my earlier point, the nine TO's they've forced the L2 games have been huge for them. I realize that the Chips still have an outside shot at winning the MAC West, but prevailing here by any kind of margin is not likely to the focus. They were virtually dead even in total yardage last week vs. Eastern Michigan, a game which was decided by those aforementioned five interceptions. CMU is only +5.3 points and +5.6 yards per game in conference play, so this is by no means a dominant team. Kent did beat them LY (as 14-pt road dogs!), 27-24, on a last second field goal. The revenge factor here will be overrated as I look for the Golden Flashes to "show some pride" in the final home game for their seniors. 8* Kent State

8* Duke (7:00 ET): Unlike football, we don't have to wait for a playoff for #1 vs. #2 in College Hoops as we're getting it here in just the second game of the season! It's Duke vs. Michigan State tonight as part of the "Champion's Classic" in Chicago The top ranked Blue Devils have actually played twice and as you'd expect, they had no difficulty in dispatching of both Utah Valley State and Elon. Michigan State has just one game under its belt and similarly had no problem, even covering a 31-point spread (barely) against North Florida (won 98-66). Sparty does have revenge here for a nine-point loss in Cameron LY (were 13-pt dogs), but the Blue Devils will be too tough yet again.

Everyone likes to say how Coach K "does things the right way," but all the young talent he's "renting" for the time being would make even Coach Cal blush. Only one Duke player - Grayson Allen - even played in LY's Michigan State game. The freshman class, led by the superb Marvin Bagley III, will carry this year's team. Thus far, Bagley has been as good as advertised, posting a double-double in each of his first two games. Bagley went for 24-10 Saturday against Utah Valley State (99-69 final), helping Coach K become the first in his profession to 1,000 career wins. Three other freshman also scored in double figures. Incredibly, Duke's first 40 points were all scored by freshman. Four start and expect there to be times when five are on the court together here. By the way, none of this should be viewed as a negative. This team is supremely talented. 

Michigan State has some key freshman as well and they'll be charged w/ helping Sparty's six-game losing skid to the Blue Devils. That includes a 2015 Final Four loss. One concern I have here for Coach Izzo's team is that they shot only 25% from three-point range in the season opener. They will NOT be able to impose their will here on the inside against a much stronger opponent. Were the spread a bit larger, I'd at least consider the underdog here, but it's basically nil and all we basically need is a straight up win from the favorite. Duke is the better team on paper and I do expect them to win. Consider that Izzo is just 5-14 SU his L19 game when listed as the dog. Look for #1 to beat #2 in this early season showdown. 8* Duke

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): This is hardly a marquee battle in the Western Conference as two teams at the bottom face off. The Lakers, playing their fourth road game in seven days, come in on a three-game losing streak. To avoid a winless trip, they'll have to beat Phoenix, which may actually be easier said than done. That's because Saturday saw the Suns pull a nice upset here at home, 118-110 over Minnesota. Widely projected to be one of the worst teams in the entire league this year, Phoenix started 0-3 and promptly fired HC Earl Watson. They are a far more respectable 5-6 SU under interim Jay Triano and the situation clearly favors them tonight as they're playing a fourth consecutive home game. Thus, I wasn't surprised to see early betting change who's favored here. 

Both Devin Booker and TJ Warren scored 35 points for the Suns Saturday night as the team shot a blistering 52.5% from the field. Minnesota is a bad defensive team, mind you, but I expect the Lakers' own defensive numbers to start plummeting as well. They come into tonight ranked 6th in defensive efficiency, which downright shocked me. When these teams played back in the second game of the season, it was a 132-130 final w/o overtime. But the Lakers' offense has been a problem recently, failing to even score 100 pts in any of the L3 games, so I seriously doubt they'll match that kind of production. They are near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency coming into tonight as #2 overall DC Lonzo Ball continues to struggle w/ his shot. 

Ball almost had a triple double in that first meeting (one assist shy), but finally became the youngest player in league history to record one as he finished w/ 19-13-12 in Saturday's 98-90 loss at Milwaukee. But, as alluded to earlier, his shooting has been way off in the early part of his pro career.  The expectation here will be this is a much "easier" game for the Lakers following three in a row against top tier teams from the Eastern Conference. But I still don't like their chances as they're just 1-5 SU on the road overall and getting outscored by 8.5 PPG overall in those contests. Keep in mind Milwaukee was playing in the second night of back to back Saturday and should have been ripe for a letdown, considering they'd just upset San Antonio. The Lakers still failed to take advantage. Meanwhile, the Suns won their last game, despite being in the 2nd game of a B2B themselves (Minnesota had been off for two days). Considering those respective results, you have to like the Suns here in what is a far more favorable situation. 10* Phoenix

10* Under Blues/Flames (9:05 ET): There aren't may teams "dominating" in the early part of this NHL season, but you can count St. Louis as one that is. The Blues lead the Central w/ 27 points (13-4-1), which are the most in the Western Conference. They are off a rare loss though, 5-2 to the Islanders on Saturday night. The good news here for Blues' fans is that the team has yet to drop B2B games this season. They'll try and keep that trend in tact Monday in Calgary against a Flames team that has won four of five, including a 6-3 win over Detroit its last time on the ice (Thursday!). I don't see the Flames being as prolific offensively here as they were in the last game, nor do I see the Blues being as generous defensively as they were in their last game. I'm on the Under.

These teams already met once this year, in St. Louis, and the Blues prevailed 5-2. The key was them going 2 for 3 when on the power play. But it's not as if this has been a dominant team w/ the man advantage as their PP ranks just 23rd in the league at 15.0 percent. So a duplication of that previous effort is unlikely here. The reason for the Blues' success so far, pretty clearly, has been their goaltending as they rank third in goals allowed (2.4 per game). Jake Allen had an uncharacteristic night between the pipes vs. the Islanders on Saturday, giving up four goals on 14 shots and was pulled in the second period. I expect a big bounce back effort from him in tonight's game, however.

Calgary comes in ranked just 25th in goals per game (2.6), so they're an opponent conducive to an Allen bounce back. Their six goals scored in the last game matched a season-high (set in 2nd game of the year vs. Winnipeg) and won't come close to being duplicated here for a number of reasons. One is I expect the players to be a bit rusty coming off a three-day layoff. Also, as I mentioned, it's not like this team is lighting the lamp w/ any great regularity this season. Their goaltender, Mike Smith, has been pretty good though as is evident by his .924 save percentage. The Flames' last three games have all gone Over the total, but they are 9-5 Under the L3 seasons when in this exact situation. They only managed 25 shots on goal in last month's game against the Blues. 10* Under Blues/Flames

10* Over Dolphins/Panthers (8:30 ET): Calling the Dolphins "the worst 4-4 team in NFL history" might sound like a meaningless distinction, but it's certainly not hyperbole. That .500 record comes in the face of an ugly -63 point differential, which ranks right near the bottom of the league. This sort of overachieving is nothing new for this franchise, at least recently. Last year, they may have qualified for the playoffs, but were a complete fraud in doing so. They were outscored again, despite going 10-6 SU in the regular season. This all may make it sound like I'm poised to play against them here, but in anticipation of some close losses forthcoming, I'll actually refrain from doing so. As you can see, the oddsmakers share my view of these Fish and it's a heavy price to pay to fade them in this spot. Therefore, we turn to the total and it's the Over I like here.

Carolina enters this game at 6-3 SU, but has hardly been impressive as they've outscored opponents by just a nine-point margin over the course of this season. They've scored just 40 pts over their L3 games and average only 18.8 PPG for the year. However, an offense which could not run the ball at all suddenly exploded last week against Atlanta for 201 yards over land. But it's been a defense that ranks near the top of the league in scoring that's really carried the team this year. They allow just 17.7 points and 274.1 yards per game, ranking in the top five in both categories. On paper, you have to like this matchup for the Carolina defense as they face a Miami offense that is - statistically speaking - the worst in football.

That dynamic would have you thinking Under, which is the way the L3 Panthers games have all gone. But prior to that they went on a 4-game Over streak. Miami's season has been just the opposite w/ them starting 5-0 Under and the L3 games all going Over. So something will have to give here. This will be the lowest O/U line for either team this year, assuming it holds (it should), and could wind up the lowest O/U line for any NFL game YTD. (The first two Texans' games both had O/U lines of 38.0). The Dolphins have been shut out twice this season, but one of those games still went Over as they allowed 40 to Baltimore, two weeks ago, also in primetime. Four of the five all-time meetings between these teams have stayed Under, but I'm going to call for Carolina to score more than expected here and Miami will score enough to help send the game Over. 10* Over Dolphins/Panthers

8* Under Cavs/Knicks (7:35 ET): When talking early season-disappointments, Cleveland certainly needs to be near the top of that last. The three-time defending Eastern Conference Champs have started 6-7 SU w/ losses to Atlanta, Brooklyn and these Knicks. They've been outscored by an average of 3.2 PPG so far and that's after beating lowly Dallas on Saturday, 111-104, as six-point road favorites. That was actually the team's first cover as chalk in NINE tries this season! So I definitely want no part of the spread here. With the total, Cleveland's #3 offensive efficiency rating coupled with being #30 (last!) on defense certainly seems conducive to an Over play, which is the way each of the L6 Cavs' games have gone! But I'm going "unconventional" here and calling for an Under. 

The Knicks got off to an ugly 0-3 start to the season, but since then have won seven of nine, bringing a sense of optimism to MSG for the first time in a LONG time. This is Kristaps Porizingis' team now as just about the only correct thing GM Phil Jackson has ever done is run Carmelo Anthony out of the Big Apple. While the split isn't quite as dramatic as Cleveland's, the Knicks are a top 10 team in offense efficiency and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. Again, that sounds like an Over play might be in the cards, but I seriously doubt New York will come close to matching it's 52.2% shooting from the last game, a 118-91 win over the odious Kings. Porzingis led the way again w/ 34 pts there as NY improved to 6-2 SU at home. 

These teams' first meeting of 2017-18 was also the last time Cleveland went Under the total. They lost 114-95 at home (as 10.5-pt favorites) in what - still - is their second lowest scoring game of the season. Interestingly, the total is significantly higher here than it was for that first meeting. The Cavs couldn't hit water from a boat in that game, making only 38.3% of their shots overall and 10 of 33 from three-point range. While they're likely to improve here, the Knicks should see a decrease in their shooting, which was at 47.2% overall and 13 of 28 from three-point range. New York has a 47-29 Under record the L3 seasons when facing a team that has a losing record. 8* Under Cavs/Knicks

8* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Last year, LaSalle and Penn played the final of the Big 5 (Philly schools) matchups. This year, they face one another almost right out of the gate. Both squads have a game under their belt w/ LaSalle winning and Penn losing. LaSalle beat St. Peter's, handily, 61-40 as 9.5-pt home chalk on Saturday. Penn, on the other hand, got off to a disappointing start by losing 80-72 at Fairfield (also on Saturday). As much as the Quakers will be looking to bounce back here, there's another factor at play that I deem more significant and that's the fact the underdog (LaSalle) comes in w/ double revenge. Penn beat them each of the last two seasons, including an upset LY in their own gym. I'll call for the Explorers to turn the table here tough and pull off their own outright victory. Take the points.

Since making the NCAA Tournament back in 2013, La Salle has experienced some lean years. Things bottomed out two years ago w/ a 9-22 (SU) campaign, but HC John Giannini got them back to respectability last season w/ a .500 finish that was actually a bit on the disappointing side as they were 11-5 SU at one point before losing 10 of their final 14 games. They were even 5-1 SU in A-10 play at one point. This year's team is being pegged for middle of the road in the conference standings, but who knows as both Dayton and VCU should be "down" in 2017-18, thus leaving the door open. I was impressed by the team's defense in the season opener as they held St. Peter's to 15 of 49 shooting (30.6%!). I'm hoping for something similar here as LY, they allowed Penn to shoot 47.5% in a game the Explorers probably should have won. 

The Ivy League contingent shot only 36.1% in its opener, including 9 of 39 from three-point range. That number of attempts marked a school record, so we know what the philosophy seems to be here. The Quakers were outscored in the paint 36-26 by the Stags, not really a good sign when you think about it as they get set to face a bigger opponent. LaSalle clearly needs to exploit the interior in this game. It's not as if Penn is some powerhouse out of the Ivy League; they're expected to finish below Princeton, Harvard and Yale. Last year, they were fortunate to hold off LaSalle, winning by just three thanks to a career-best 35 pts from AJ Brodeur. This is a pretty young roster, especially for an Ivy League team. With two games coming against ranked teams next week, it's pretty imperative that LaSalle wins this one. I think they will. 8* LaSalle

8* New England (8:30 ET): Normally, I would side w/ the home underdog in this situation, but I just don't see how an inept Denver offense - that is still, sadly, being quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler - can keep pace w/ the rested Patriots on Sunday night. The Broncos went into their (early) bye week (Week 5) at 3-1 SU, but since then, the season has taken a dramatic downturn (four straight losses). Ironically, it began w/ a loss on Sunday night - as 13.5-pt favorites - to the Giants (Giants only win of season!). Then, they had to play three in a row on the road, and lost all of them. They've been outscored 124-52 during the four-game losing streak and while they'd outgained every opponent prior to last week, it's become pretty obvious the defense no longer can carry this team to anything meaningful. Lay the points. 

New England came into the season as the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite, but two losses in their first four games quickly tempered enthusiasm. But they've since won four in a row, admittedly all against bad teams. But, thankfully, Denver qualifies as a bad team as long as either Siemien or Osweiler is under center (I know Paxton Lynch has been banged up, but how awful must he look in practice). In two games vs. NE last year, Osweiler (w/ Houston) had a 1:4 TD:INT ratio and was outscored 61-16. The Pats came here and beat a better Denver team LY, 16-3 as a field goal favorite. The Broncos defense still ranks highly, but they struggle to defend the tight end and that's a major issue when the opponent has Rob Gronkowski. 

Last week, the Broncos allowed more than 300 total yds for the first time all year (419) and were gashed by the Eagles to the tune of 51 points. Therefore, off their bye week, the Pats have to be salivating. Bill Belichick has always been particularly lethal off the bye week, owning a 6-1 SU record the last seven years and failing to cover only twice. This is still the top-ranked offenses in the game (27.0 PPG) and unless Denver can somehow summon efforts from past seasons, their inept offense simply won't be able to keep pace. 8* New England

10* Washington (7:05 ET): This is a marquee matchup for the league on a Sunday night as two teams loaded with potential meet in the Nation's capital. The Caps have won multiple Presidents Trophies (most points in regular season), but that's never helped them come playoff time as neither this or any previous incarnations have even advanced to a Stanley Cup Finals. As for the Oilers, this year's team had fans hearkening back to the glory days of the 1980's (w/ Wayne Gretzky), but so far it's been a disappointment as they only have 13 points, which is tied for third fewest in the entire league. They are last in the league in both goals scored and in penalty killing. That's not a good sign for this matchup and I'm on the home team.

It certainly doesn't help Edmonton's cause here that they're playing the second game of a back to back. Last night, they lost to the Rangers, 4-2. Sure enough, it was the Oilers "leaky" PK unit that cost them as they gave up not one, but TWO PP goals in the second period, which was the difference in the game. Granted, the Rangers have now won six straight. But Washington will come in as winners of four of five, including a 4-1 victory Friday over another marquee opponent, that being Pittsburgh. I will concede that I do eventually expect an "uptick" from Edmonton as they lead the league in shots per game despite being last in scoring. That discrepancy is obviously due to start evening out. But it won't happen against this opponent.

Because Edmonton is playing in the second game of a B2B, I expect Washington to have a major edge in between the pipes tonight. They'll almost certainly start Braden Holtby, who has a .944 save percentage in his six home starts this year. Meanwhile, the Oilers are likely to have to turn to backup Laurent Brossoit, whose save percentage is a very ugly .854 thus far. Perhaps they'll try and send Cam Talbot out on consecutive nights, but that would probably be a mistake given he's started the L11 games for the Oilers. The Caps have also won the L5 times Holtby has started. He was in goal for the team's 5-2 win in Edmonton and made 38 saves. 10* Washington

8* Houston (6:05 ET): Indiana has been able to outperform its - admittedly small - expectations in the early part of the season, going 6-7 straight up. But that should change here as they play one of the league's best teams in Houston. It should be pointed out that prior to beating lowly Chicago (105-87) on Friday, the Pacers had lost four in a row - failing to cover the spread all four times. Houston comes in having won five in a row after last night's double revenge spot where they finally beat Memphis, 111-96, as seven-point favorites. Hitting the road w/o rest should not be a problem for the Rockets, who are far more talented that their counterparts this evening. Lay the short number. 

Houston is now 10-3 SU overall, which has them tied w/ Golden State for the best record in the Western Conference. Of course, they opened the season by upsetting the Warriors, rallying back from a big second half deficit in the process. They're 9-1 SU against everyone besides Memphis thus far w/ the only loss coming at home to Philadelphia, a game in which the Sixers couldn't miss (55.0 FG%). Last night, it was James Harden leading the way w/ 38 points and the game was even more of a rout than what's let on by the final score as Houston led by 23 entering the fourth quarter. They made 16 three-pointers, the fifth straight game w/ at least that many, tying their own NBA record set just last season. This team is not known for defense, but they had 14 steals and forced 20 turnovers last night. 

Indiana actually swept Houston last season, so there is a revenge angle in play here tonight for the road faves. Houston shot shockingly poor in both games against the Pacers last season (36.4%, 41.0%) and went just 21 of 84 (25%) from three-point range. They should easily top those numbers tonight. Indiana allowed every opponent to shoot 50% or better during the four-game losing streak, before getting the benefit of facing the Bulls, who shot a woeful 39.8% from the floor. Save for games against the Bulls and Kings (league's two worst teams?), every Indiana opponent has scored at least 101 pts, save for one. Here they face a team that ranks #2 in offensive efficiency, trailing only (of course) Golden State. The only way to beat Houston is to play good defense, but the Rockets actually come into this game w/ a better defensive efficiency rating than the Pacers. 8* Houston

10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): I am - quite frankly - shocked that the Giants are getting so much love here as they've moved from a one-point dog to a 2.5/3 pt favorite. Granted, they're playing the 0-9 49ers, but in case you haven't looked at the standings in awhile, the G-Men have only one win themselves and it was over a Denver team that hasn't won in a month. Big Blue is a complete dumpster fire right now w/ the effort level and Eli Manning's future both being called into question. HC Ben McAdoo's days may be numbered here. The performance LW at home vs. the Rams was downright horrendous as they lost 51-17. There is simply no way I would want to lay points w/ this team right now, especially on the road. I'll call for San Francisco to win for the 1st time all year. Take the points. 

Now Niners' starting QB CJ Beathard has been pretty awful in his own right and it's probably only a matter of time before Jimmy Garoppolo sees action. But this team has played hard for 1st year HC Kyle Shanahan, at least they were earlier in the season when they suffered five straight defeats by a field goal or less, two of those coming in overtime. Since then, it's gotten ugly, but they did have to play both Dallas and Philadelphia in the L3 weeks. The offense has managed only 10 points each of its last three games, but a Giants defense which clearly overachieved LY won't offer much resistance here. Remember - in that lone Giants' win this season, they were outgained 412-266, but benefited from a +3 turnover margin as 13.5-pt underdogs. 

Manning's days are numbered as the Giants QB and they should be. Injuries at the receiver position have obviously taken their toll this year, but what most fail to realize is this was a terrible offense last season as well. In 10 of their last 14 games, the Giants have not scored more than 17 points. That's atrocious. They come into this game averaging only 16.1 PPG, which barely beats out the 49ers' 15.9 PPG scoring average. Factoring in the homefield advantage here I just don't understand the line move. The Giants appear to have quit on the season and a complete teardown is needed here. The 49ers will play hard for a 1st year HC, at least until they finally get into the win column. This game here, on paper, shapes up as their most "winnable" of the entire season. As a home dog of three points or less, the 49ers are 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons and those have all been "lean years" like this one. 10* San Francisco

10* Louisville (2:00 ET): To say it was a tumultuous offseason for Louisville just might be the understatement of the decade. Rick Pitino was forced to resign in disgrace amidst scandal that had engulfed the program. So too were multiple assistants. But while the coaching staff may have changed, there is still plenty of talent remaining on the court. New HC David Padgett (just the third L'ville HC since 1971!) inherits a Top 20 team with numerous returning starters back and I have no reason to believe that the Cardinals won't be very good this season. Early on, I think we'll be able to take advantage of some soft lines as the expectation is L'ville might "fall on its face." That's not going to happen though and my read for this opener is that they're severely undervalued. 

This is a deeper L'ville team compared to last year. Just how much they'll miss Pitino's coaching remains to be seen, but my guess is that it's something that's being overstated. Padgett can lean on preseason award winners Deng Adel and Quentin Snyder, both of whom averaged more than 12 PPG last season, not to mention a trio of returning starters - Ray Spalding, V.J. King and Anas Mahmoud. Furthermore, there is a trio of freshman and one key incoming transfer (Dwayne Sutton) that should bolster the depth. Again, this is a very talented team. As long as Padgett can block out the distractions, the Cardinals are going to win plenty of games this year and possibly nap second place (behind Duke) in a loaded ACC.

George Mason (forgot to mention them!) is the first opponent for Padgett and Louisville. The Patriots have already played a game, winning Friday by just two (67-65) over Lafayette. The game was won on a pair of free throws w/ just six seconds left. GMU has some quickness, but will be severely overmatched inside as L'ville has a massive size advantage w/ four players checking in at 6'6" or taller. George Mason's tallest player in the starting lineup is 6'7" (Goanar Mar) and there really isn't any other bigs to speak of beyond him. The Patriots won on Friday in large part to Lafayette shooting only 42.2% from the field. Louisville will shoot much better than that thanks to the advantage down low and that will eventually wear the underdog down. 10* Louisville

8* Under Chargers/Jaguars (1:00 ET): Is Jacksonville for real? There are a number of teams this year the public needs to take w/ a proverbial "grain of salt," this one among them (not to mention Rams, Saints, Vikings, Eagles). But there is no disputing this Jags' defense is #1 in the league in scoring (14.6 PPG allowed). The result of that is one of the top overall scoring differentials in the league (+89, tops in AFC). I find the scoring differential metric to typically be an excellent predictor of future success, so maybe the idea of printing playoff tickets in Jacksonville should be taken seriously? I certainly love this matchup for that #1 overall scoring defense and will be on the Under this week. 

Why do I love this matchup so much from the Jags defense's perspective? Well, for one, the Chargers' offense is far too predictable. Secondly, Philip Rivers is as immobile as any QB in the league. That's certainly a bad combination when facing a defense allowing a league-low 156 yards passing per game w/ 35 sacks (most in the league) to boot. Furthermore, the propensity of this Chargers' coaching staff to stubbornly run the ball on 1st down, despite a lack of success, is a concern here. LA comes in averaging only 18.8 points per game. Shockingly, that's tied for 22nd (scoring way down this year), but it's still not good. They have scored more than 21 pts only two times all season. 

Jacksonville's defense won't be the only stout one in this matchup. The Chargers have a pair of strong rushers on the edge - Melvin Booker and Joey Bosa - who have 17 sacks between them. Expect them to add to that total here w/ the Jaguars potentially being down as many as THREE starting offensive lineman. Both starting guards and RT Jeremy Parnell were limited in practice this week. Remember, this is a "fresh" Chargers' defense, one that allowed an average of just 12.3 points the L3 games before the bye. As much as Jacksonville might be "for real" in 2017, I still put little faith in QB Blake Bortles. Only two Jacksonville games all season have seen more than 44 total pts scored. In a 30-9 win earlier this year vs. Pittsburgh, it was the defense supplying two of the three touchdowns. This game will be ruled by the defenses, which are - easily - the two strongest units in the matchup. 8* Under Chargers/Jaguars

8* Green Bay (1:00 ET): The Bears are favored for the first time ALL YEAR here and for the 1st time over the Packers since 2008! The latter half of that statement would have been considered unfathomable even a month ago, but Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone changed the entire landscape in the NFC North. Plus, GB is working on a short week here (lost Monday night) while Chicago is off a bye. However, I can't agree with the degree to which the Monsters of the Midway are favored here. Again, they haven't been favored in a single game all year prior to this. The last time they were favored was Week 10 of last season when they lost outright to Tampa Bay. Even the Browns have been favored (once) during that time span. Not only did the Bears lose outright that last time they were favored, they are 0-5 ATS as chalk the last two seasons, losing all five of those games outright! The last time Chicago covered a game when favored was Wk 12 of 2014! Green Bay's stock probably couldn't be lower right now, so I'll grab them at an inflated price.

It's been pretty ugly w/ Brett Hundley under center for the Pack. Including the game where he replaced Rodgers (at Minnesota), the team has lost all three games (0-3 ATS) and has been held to 17 pts or less every time. Last week may have been the nadir of the Mike McCarthy era as off a bye, Hundley appeared ill-prepared at home vs. Detroit. He now has a 58.4 passer rating w/ a 1-4 TD-INT ratio. But, against the odds, I expect Hundley to play better this week even though he's facing a better defense. Also, it's not like Chicago's offense has shown any capability to blow teams out. They average only 16.7 PPG despite getting plenty of touchdowns from the defense. In fact, the only time they've topped 17 pts in their L5 games was an OT win over Baltimore where they got a defensive score. 

Mitchell Trubisky is the future for Chicago at the QB position, but the rookie has predictably struggled despite a 3-1 ATS mark. There was the infamous win over Carolina two weeks ago where he completed only four passes and the Bears only won because of TWO defensive scores. The Bears are 4-0 ATS at home this year, but again they were a dog in all four games. The last time they were favored by six points or more was Week 1 of the 2014 season and - you guessed it - they lost outright! This promises to be an ugly, low-scoring game where points are at a premium, thus taking the points is naturally the way to go. The Bears are not accustomed to being EXPECTED to beat Green Bay and should "struggle" in the unfamiliar role. 8* Green Bay

8* Oklahoma (8:00 ET): This has now become THE game in the Big 12 this year as the winner is likely assured of being no worse than #5 in the next CFP rankings, plus will have the conference lead all to themselves. Ironically, both Oklahoma and TCU have lost to Iowa State this year. Oklahoma lost to the Cyclones as 30-pt (!) home favorites, 38-31, back on October 7th. TCU lost to them at home, 14-7, just two weeks ago. That's the ONLY loss for both teams all season. Both have beaten Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas. OU gets the higher ranking likely due to their win at Ohio State early in the year and I don't really think there's many people right now (outside of Ft. Worth) claiming the Horned Frogs are the better team here. Throw in the fact the game takes place in Norman and I'll lay what is actually a pretty short number Saturday night.

While they did lose to Iowa State, Oklahoma is still 57-8 SU its last 65 games at Memorial Stadium. So anytime you get the opportunity to lay a TD or less w/ them here, it's probably a good idea to do so. Sure enough, there has been only one time in the previous three seasons that they've been faves of 7 pts or less here in Norman and they won easily, 44-24 over West Virginia, back in 2015. While it's true these teams have a history of playing close games (L5 all decided by 7 pts or less), my thinking is that works AGAINST TCU here. Typically, the favorite is the one undervalued in Top 25 matchups and that's what we have here. 

OU averages 45 points and 608 yards per game. They will - easily - be the top opponent TCU has taken on this season. Meanwhile, the Sooners have already gone to Ohio State and won. Last week at Oklahoma State, Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and the offense put on an unreal display w/ 62 points and 785 yards. I just don't know how you stop this offense. TCU does rank 1st nationally against the run, but it's the passing game where OU truly excels. With just 31 pts - total - scored in its last two games, I'm just not sure how the Horned Frogs can keep up. OU has a huge edge at QB in this matchup w/ Mayfield over Kenny Hill and that's going to be a big part of the difference here. Yes, TCU was able to win at Oklahoma State earlier in the year, but as we saw last week, it's the Sooners that are the stronger Bedlam rival and I just can't pick against them at home. 8* Oklahoma

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): This will be the second consecutive time where I'm playing AGAINST Minnesota. Wednesday, I went against them in Toronto and they lost 4-2. At the time, it was their third consecutive loss. Now they have won a game since, shutting out the Habs 3-0 on Thursday. But don't allow that one victory to cloud the fact that this team is still in last place in the Central Division (only 14 pts) and gave up 41 shots to Montreal. Philadelphia is off a big win Thursday vs. Chicago, here at home, and can now claim a goal differential that is better than all but four teams i the league right now! They are outshooting opponents this year while the Wild are not and I give a significant edge here to the better team on home ice.

The Flyers are getting some pretty strong goaltending from both Brian Elliott (.934 save percentage L4 starts) and Michael Neuvirth (.928 overall). It is likely to be the former starting tonight. That's a good thing considering Elliott has a 9-2 career mark vs. the Wild w/ a 2.07 goals against average and .915 save percentage. He made 38 saves to beat Chicago Thursday, further illustrating the fact that he's in fine form right now. Offensively, the Flyers have one of the best top lines in the sport. The Giroux-Couturier-Voracek line has combined for 23 goals and 60 points overall, making them the 2nd highest scoring line in the entire league right now, trailing only the superb Stamkos line in Tampa Bay. Something else to note is that Philly swept the season series against Minnesota last year, limiting them to just 52 shots total in the two games. 

The Wild got a huge effort from Devan Dubnyk (41 saves) against Montreal, but overall he's having a bit of a down year. Because of an injury to backup Alex Stalock, this will be the sixth consecutive game in which Dubnyk has started and you have to wonder if fatigue will start to be an issue for him. Offensively, Minnesota has its issues as well. One player (Jason Zucker) has accounted for the team's last five goals, including the hat trick Thursday, the entirety of which came in the third period. Furthermore, you have to wonder what the Wild's offensive numbers would look like were it not for four short-handed goals in the last eight games. That certainly cannot be counted on to continue moving forward. This is a banged up team right now that desperately misses Zach Parise, plus this will be their fourth straight road game. Not only were they swept by the Flyers last year, they are 0-4 against them the L2 seasons. 10* Philadelphia

10* New Orleans (7:05 ET): The Clippers really let me down last night, failing to even cover in Oklahoma City. They lost 120-111, dropping to 1-6 SU and ATS their last seven games, following a 4-0 SU/ATS start. They are also now 2-14 ATS the L3 seasons following three consecutive games in which they went Over the total. Last night's game went Over, so that trend is still in play tonight as they visit New Orleans. The Pelicans just concluded a 4-0 ATS road trip (against mostly bad teams), going 3-1 SU as well. They did lose the last game, by four at Toronto, but should be able to take advantage here of the Clips playing in the second night of a back to back. It may seem strange to see the Pelicans favored over LA, but I believe the line is justified. 

The Clippers defense has been very poor each of the L2 games and it doesn't appear as if that is something that can be fixed quickly. They allowed both the Spurs and Thunder to shoot better than 51% from the floor. More troubling for them is that the Pelicans have shot better than 50% each of its last two games. Paul George, who hadn't done much of anything for OKC, went off for 42 pts last night vs. LA and it was the Thunder's highest scoring game of the year. Really, it was a pretty misleading final considering the Clips trailed by as many as 20 pts in the second. This is their third road game in five nights and they're short-handed to boot. Patrick Beverly (knee), Danilo Gallinari (glute) and Milos Teodosic (plantar fascia) have all been ruled out tonight.

It's been a bit of a strange season for the Pelicans thus far as they are 5-3 SU on the road, yet only 1-3 SU on the road. They are 2-0 ATS against LY's NBA Finalists here, however, having beaten Cleveland and covered against Golden State. This team has two of the best players in the league, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, who can dominate the interior. Guard Jrue Holliday also had 32 pts and 11 assists Thursday against Toronto. I don't think New Orleans will have any issue scoring in this game. After all, despite the home record, they are averaging 110 PPG here. Assuming they can slow down and unrested and short-handed foe, it should not be an issue covering tonight. 10* New Orleans

8* USC (4:00 ET): Most would be quick to call Southern Cal's season a disappointment as the Men of Troy came in to 2017 w/ playoff aspirations. But even with the two losses, this still a team to be feared. Navigating a schedule that had ZERO bye weeks was practically insurmountable, so I'm not surprised at all to see the multiple blemishes on the resume. Plus, let's look at the two losses, shall we? One was on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game where the Trojans lost multiple OL to injury. The other was at Notre Dame, who is the third best team in the country according to the committee. The last two weeks have given us a glimpse into USC's vast potential. They've routed both Arizona State and Arizona to the tune of 97-52. I don't think they'll have much problem at all w/ Colorado, even in Boulder. 

Now Colorado has been a true disappointment this year. Last year at this time, the Buffs were on their way to being the surprise winner of the Pac 12 South and playing in the Conference Championship Game. No one expected a repeat of that, but a 5-5 SU/3-7 ATS record is definitely not what the faithful envisioned either. They actually enter this game in last place in the North Division (USC in first). While it was a 3-0 start, that included wins over Texas State and Northern Colorado. Pac 12 play has not gone well as they're just 2-5 SU and the wins were over Oregon State (by only three) and Cal, the two worst teams in the league. Last week, they were beaten 41-30 by Arizona State after giving up 24 pts in the fourth quarter and nearly 600 total yards for the game. USC had just routed that same ASU team two weeks ago and it's pretty frightening to think what Sam Darnold and the Trojan offense might do to this Buffaloes defense.

USC is also only 3-7 ATS and was actually 1-7 before covering each of the last two weeks. Their market favoribility took a major hit after the Notre Dame game, but that's fine by me as I fully expect them to win out and play Washington in the Pac 12 Title Game. Not only has it been 97 points from Darnold and company the L2 games, it's been B2B 600+ yard efforts as well. Given Colorado just allowed Arizona State to run for 381 yards last week, I'd say this is a bad matchup facing an offense that has 672 yds over land its last two games, 410 alone from Ronald Jones. The Colorado defense has given up an average of 35 PPG the L5 weeks and this will be the best offense they've faced during that time. CU has NEVER beaten USC in 11 all-time tries, not even LY when they won the Division. In fact, the fact they "only" lost 21-17 was quite misleading as the Trojans outgained them 548-371 and kneeled inside the CU five-yard line to run the clock out. I look for USC to make it three blowouts in a row. 8* USC

8* DePaul (4:00 ET): While virtually all of the South Bend faithful will be paying attention to the football team's huge Top 10 showdown w/ Miami tonight, Notre Dame's basketball team comes into the season ranked #14 in the land. It's a solid starting point, but probably a bit too high in my estimation and it's not like the Fighting Irish have ever been a particularly great road team under HC Mike Brey. Therefore, I'm making the call to take underdog DePaul and the points in this season opener. This will be one of the bigger games of the year for the Blue Demons, who are unveiling their brand new arena in Chicago. For Notre Dame, it's simply "just another game" and not one they'll have much interest in winning by any kind of significant margin. 

DePaul is off a 9-23 SU season, but they have four starters back, at least giving them some much-needed experience. They should be extremely motivated here. "We want to play well and win the game. We want to show that the change of DePaul's culture is real," said Blue Demons' junior guard Eli Cain. He added "It's not just talked about. It's not just something we can go around saying in interviews and put on social media. We want to show that that's the real deal." Furthermore, the Blue Demons haven't beaten Notre Dame in some time. They've lost nine straight times to the Irish, their longest losing skid EVER in the 105 all-time meetings and are just 1-8 ATS in those games. But it will be a stronger DePaul team than per usual taking the court Saturday, one that not only has four returning starters, but also three key transfers. 

Led by senior Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame is thinking Final Four this season. Last year's team only made it to the Round of 32 (eliminated by West Virginia), but the two years before that, they made it all the way to the Elite 8. Again, my view is the Irish are slightly overrated coming into this season. The team was picked to finish third in the rugged ACC (by the media), behind Duke and UNC, but I think it's a VERY thin line between third and seventh in the league and the Irish could finish anywhere in between. They are only 3-8 ATS the L11 times they have been a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, losing five of those games outright. They've also failed to cover in any of their last three games vs. Big East opponents. Take the points here in what should be a close game. 8* DePaul

8* Under West Virginia/Kansas State (3:30 ET): The Big XII currently has no teams in the top four in the playoff rankings, but the winner of Saturday night's game between TCU and Oklahoma (who are tied for first place in the conference) will almost certainly be ranked no lower than fifth come next Tuesday. Behind those two are a number of teams jockeying for position, including the two here, who have become almost afterthoughts. West Virginia is 6-3 w/ two of its losses coming by a touchdown. They average 40.2 PPG, but it was the defense that ruled the day in LW's 20-16 win over Iowa State in Morgantown. This week, they face Kansas State in the "Little Apple" (Manhattan), a team that is not known for scoring, but ironically is off a 42-35 win over Texas Tech last week. Oddsmakers have pretty high expectations for the amt of scoring in this game, but the fact is none of the last four meetings have been very high scoring. I'm on the Under.

WVU was actually shut out in the 2H last week, something we don't see very often. But it didn't matter as the defense held Iowa State to just 350 total yds, perhaps the Mountaineers' signature defensive effort this year. After facing a string of top-flight offenses (TCU, Tex Tech, OK State, Iowa State), perhaps Kansas State will be a reprieve. Granted, the Wildcats have scored 30 or more in all but two games this year. But the two they didn't, they were held to just single digits. Last week, KSU needed a TD + 2 pt conversion in the final minute to force OT against Texas Tech (trailed 35-27). They also needed a defensive TD (INT return). Making the rally all the more improbable is the fact it was led by a third string QB, Skylar Thompson, who will now be Bill Snyder's starter moving forward. 

Kansas State only ranks 99th nationally in passing yards per game, so with a third-stringer at the helm, I don't expect much from them through the air in this game. That could mean trouble, because LW's defensive performance from WVU included them allowing just 101 yds over land. I do expect Will Grier and the Mountaineers' offense to move the ball here, but won't be surprised if they're held to field goals by a KSU defense that ranks 2nd in the Big 12 in red zone efficiency. As mentioned before, recent meetings between these two have been lower scoring than expected. Last year, it was 17-16 WVU in Morgantown and the most points scored in any of the L4 meetings was 47. 8* Under West Virginia/Kansas State

10* Ohio State (12:00 ET): Judging by the ticket count (as of Thursday afternoon), it certainly appears as if no one wants any part of the 13th ranked Buckeyes this week, even though they're at home and HC Urban Meyer is typically outstanding when coming off a loss. The public disdain does make sense; after all, OSU was routed in Iowa last Saturday - 55-24 - yet is still laying a big number here. But at the risk of offending any readers/clients from East Lansing or those who simply may "bleed" Sparty green, Michigan State is a highly overrated outfit and very fortunate to have the record it does. Their five Big 10 victories have come by a TOTAL of 25 points and none were by more than eight! Not only is this line justified; it's actually not high enough!

Expectations were way down in East Lansing coming into the season. The Spartans were coming off a 3-9 SU year and a lot of talent elected to bolt in the Spring. Nothing that happened in the non-conference portion of the schedule seemed to indicate this team was ready for big things. There were two "ho-hum" wins over MAC schools (Bowling Green, Western Michigan), followed by a 38-18 thumping at the hands of Notre Dame. But here in Big 10 play, all they've done is win close games, save for one. Notable wins include one over Michigan where Sparty was +5 in turnover margin, thereby enabling them to win a bad weather game where they barely gained 250 total yards. The win at Minnesota, admittedly, shouldn't have been as close as it ended up considering MSU led big before getting backdoored. But the following week saw a highly misleading final in their favor, 17-9 over Indiana, where they scored two late fourth quarter TD's to not just steal the win, but the cover as well. Mark Dantonio got a dose of his "own medicine" the following week in a 3 OT loss to N'western (only Big 10 loss). Then came last week where they upset Penn State in East Lansing, yet another game that was heavily impacted by mother nature (three-hour lightning delay). Man, this team sure seems to win a lot of bad weather games. 

Two years ago, here in Columbus, the Spartans won another bad weather game. This one as 14-pt dogs, 17-14. This Saturday is expected to be chilly (high of 40 degrees), but no rain is expected. I know that NO ONE wants to hear this right now, but in my mind, Ohio State would still be a favorite over any team in the country, save for Alabama. The Buckeyes average 43 PPG. Michigan State averages only 24 PPG. I'm calling for a three TD victory for the home team here as they're stock couldn't be any lower. I just do NOT believe in Michigan State at all as I don't even believe they are a Top 25 team in the country! 10* Ohio State

8* BYU (10:30 ET): It has, quite obviously, been a terrible season in Provo, both on the field and at the betting window. Brigham Young failed to cover in any of its first seven games this season and the lone SU win during that stretch came against an FCS school, Portland State, in the opener. Once they dropped a game, 33-17 at hideous East Carolina, the Cougars' season was, in essence, done. But I've liked the way they've still competed for HC Kalani Sitake the L2 weeks, covering both games, despite nothing to play for. They even won a game, two weeks ago, 41-20 over San Jose State. Then, last week saw them stay inside the number at a much improved Fresno State team, losing "only" 20-13 as 11.5-pt dogs. This week, they're in Vegas on a Friday night against a UNLV team that hasn't been very trustworthy when laying points. I'll grab the number here w/ the short road dog. 

UNLV came into this season thinking bowl game, which would be a first under HC Tony Sanchez, a local favorite due to his ties to the high school scene. This is Sanchez's third season here and in the previous two, the Rebels have won three and four games. Going back to 2010, only UNLV team ('13) has won more than four games in a season. Four is where they're at now, meaning they'll need to win two of the final three to become bowl eligible. Rebels' fans are probably thinking this can be one of those two, but as alluded to earlier, this team is untrustworthy when favored. They're only 5-8 ATS in the role under Sanchez, including 1-2-1 ATS this year (2-2 SU). They did push LW vs. Hawaii, but also lost outright to Utah State (52-28!) the last time they were a short fave here in Sam Boyd Stadium. 

BYU was tied w/ Fresno State last week (on the road) entering the fourth quarter and still finished w/ the edge in total yardage and first downs. The week previous, they rolled up nearly 600 yds total offense and forced five turnovers in a 41-20 win and cover (1st of season) over San Jose State. Now, QB Tanner Mangum is done for the year (ACL), but this is the SIXTH time in the last eight seasons that BYU has lost its starting QB to a season-ending injury and they've persevered before. The unknown factor at QB here will make them more difficult to prepare for anyway. Speaking of QB's, UNLV's Johnny Stanton was playing linebacker just three weeks ago. He too is only in there because of injuries. The Rebels have not beaten BYU since '04 and remember this is a team that lost outright to FCS Howard (as 45-pt chalk) in the season opener. 8* BYU

10* Over Jets/Golden Knights (10:35 ET): The early season success of the expansion team in Las Vegas has been one of the big storylines this year in the NHL, but that success has begun to predictably subside as injuries at the goaltending position have begun to take their toll. Incredibly, the Knights have lost their top THREE netminders to injury so far and as a result they have to now lean on the unproven Maxime Lagace, whose .866 save percentage doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence. Tonight, the Knights return to Sin City following a somewhat disastrous 1-4-1 road trip, which was all out East. They gave up at least three goals five times. But they do rank 5th in the league in goals per game, giving them a "puncher's chance" here. I like the Over.

Another reason to expect a high-scoring affair here is that Vegas' opponent, Winnipeg, has certainly not been shy about scoring goals of late. They've won four of five, scoring a total of 22 goals in the process. They've scored at least four times in four of those five games, including three straight. Another key for the Jets has been their fourth ranked power play. Not much was expected from the contingent from Manitoba coming into this season, but they're currently in second place in the Central w/ 19 points. That's the same number of points Vegas has, so this should actually be a fun battle between second place teams. 

Winnipeg's power play may rank 4th in the league (23.9%), but they are just 26th in penalty killing (76.5%), meaning that when one team has a man advantage in their games, there's usually a goal scored. That's something to certainly keep an eye on here. I've already run through the lack of depth between the pipes for the Knights and they're certainly going to struggle to keep teams from finding the back of the net until they get some of the other goalies back. With Winnipeg, Connor Hellebuyck is certainly due to drop off after posting a .936 save percentage in his first 11 games. I say that because the Jets have actually been outshot badly of late. They're giving up 36.0 shots per game on the road as well. But any time you have a team averaging 4.4 goals on just 23.8 shots per game (what Winnipeg has done the L5 games!), you have to figure they'll get "theirs" as well. This should be a high-scoring game. 10* Over Jets/Golden Knights

8* Vanderbilt (9:30 ET): Vandy typically owns one of the more unique homecourt advantages in all of College Basketball and we should see that on display in the season opener against overmatched Austin Peay. The Commodores were a NCAA Tournament team a year ago, their first under HC Bryce Drew, and once again figure to be a factor in the SEC. Don't let the pointspread scare you here as Vandy is 6-1 ATS the last seven times it has had to lay at least 12.5 points at home while Austin Peay is 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've gotten that many. The Commies are also 25-7 SU, 18-10 ATS the L2 years here in Nashville. Austin Peay has a brand new HC (1st time since 1990) and a pretty young roster to boot. They're really "up against it" tonight.

Last year ended in heartbreak for Vandy when Matthew Fisher-Davis inexplicably fouled Northwestern's Bryant McIntosh in a tie game when there were just 14.6 seconds remaining in a 1st round NCAA Tournament matchup. Fisher-Davis was arguably the team's best player LY and he's back for 2017-18, ready to build on a 13.9 PPG scoring average. The All-SEC guard should also have some help up front w/ the triumvirate of Clevon Brown, Djery Baptiste and Ejike Obinna. If even one of those players steps up, it should be a good year for the Commies. Also, there is Jeff Roberson, who is in-arguably the team's best two-way player. 

It's a new era for Austin Peay as Dave Loos is done patrolling the sideline, which he occupied since 1990! Former South Carolina assistant Matt Figger replaces him and has a lot of work to do considering all the newcomers on the roster. Figger also will likely be implementing the defensive system learned under Frank Martin at South Carolina and that's going to take time and there will be growing pains. Especially here as Vandy has a number of holdovers that can shoot the ball, plus two impressive newcomers in Saben Lee and Max Evans. This should turn into a blowout rather quickly. 8* Vanderbilt

10* LA Clippers (9:35 ET): Oklahoma City's woes against the Western Conference continued last night w/ a 102-94 loss in Denver. Now, it's REALLY getting hard for me to justify them being close to the top of my personal power rankings as that loss drops them to 4-7 SU on the year, even though they have outscored opponents by a decent margin. But it's now four straight losses (and counting?) and their record vs. conference foes is now an ugly 0-6 SU and ATS. Tonight, they host a fellow contender (Clippers) and I want no part of laying points w/ the Thunder right now. Certainly not w/ LA on its own losing skid right now (three games), making them just as desperate. This is a matchup where you almost HAVE to take the points. I will. 

The Clippers started the year looking great. They were 4-0 SU and ATS, leaving many to ask "Who needs Chris Paul, anyway?" Well, turns out that question is as silly as it reads as ever since the Clips are just 1-5 SU/ATS, leaving them at .500 overall. The three straight losses came to Memphis, Miami and at San Antonio. I played against them in the last one, but it's interesting to note they've opened as bigger dogs here than what they closed at for that Spurs game. That doesn't make a ton of sense to me, quite frankly. Like the Thunder, LA has outscored its opponents by a decent margin this year, which means they are better than their overall record. While it was just one bad quarter vs. the Spurs that doomed them, shouting could reportedly be heard afterward in the Clippers locker room, leading me to to believe they will be an angry and motivated bunch tonight.

The Clippers fell victim to some red hot Spurs' shooting the other night (15 of 28 from three-point range), but they should count on that NOT being the case here as OKC came into last night's game shooting a dismal 42.5% from the field its L5 games. They shot right around that percentage Thursday and managed only 19 pts in the fourth quarter to lose 102-94. They've now failed to score even 100 pts in four consecutive games. This situation clearly favors the road team as OKC is playing w/o rest after dealing with the high altitude of Denver. The Clippers last played Tuesday. Both teams are a bit banged up, but the bottom line is that I expect a close game here and am not sure how the oddsmakers could favor the Thunder this significantly, given the situation. I'd take the points here no matter which team was the underdog. 10* LA Clippers

8* North Carolina (7:00 ET): Defending Nat'l Champion UNC has to start the season w/o the services of PG Joel Berry II, but still shouldn't have much difficulty here w/ Northern Iowa. Berry is certainly a key loss; he was named Most Outstanding Player in LY's Final Four and it's a completely silly reason why he is out (broke his hand punching a door after reportedly losing a video game!), but nevertheless there's still plenty of talent on hand for the ninth ranked team in the country. It was another strong recruiting class, which will be counted on to replace the top four rebounders from a year ago. Seventh Woods and Jalek Felton will be the ones charged w/ filling Berry's lost production and, if anything, because of that injury the Tar Heels are undervalued for their opener.

Now Northern Iowa is no stranger to pulling upsets. Two years ago, they even beat UNC, but that was at home. Last year was an ugly 85-42 loss in Chapel Hill and while it may not get that bad again this year, clearly the Panthers are outclassed here. Ben Jacobson's team was a disappointing 14-16 SU overall last season and thus they enter 2017-18 w/ reduced expectations compared to previous seasons. Last year's team was also a very poor 10-19-1 ATS at the betting window. While that usually results in a better mark the following year, the fact is the Panthers were just terrible as underdogs a season ago, going 3-10 SU and getting outscored by 17 pts per game. You may want to wait until MVC play begins to start betting this team. 

UNI is picked for second this season in the Missouri Valley as they have four returning starters plus an impressive freshman in Tywhon Pickford. But, still, they should be outclassed here as they'll struggled to keep pace and find success on the boards against what is certainly a taller and more athletic team. Typically, the Panthers are not very good away from Cedar Falls (9-17 SU, 10-16 ATS L2 seasons) and they really struggled to score on the road last year (59.1 PPG). Obviously, that's quite problematic when facing a foe that averaged 84.4 PPG last year, which was among the highest averages in the entire country. Last year's meeting saw UNI shoot only 33.3% from the floor and get to the FT line just eight times. 8* North Carolina

8* Over Thunder/Nuggets (10:35 ET): OKC comes into this game off a horrific loss, 94-86 at Sacramento. It was their third consecutive loss and fifth consecutive Under. Yet, I still have this team 4th in my own power rankings despite a 4-6 SU overall record. They've got the 4th best point differential in the sport and have played much better than the record shows. It's downright stunning that after taking a 25-10 lead over the Kings after 1Q, they lost going away. They'd go on to score only 64 points over the final three quarters, unfathomable considering the talent on hand here. It's a much different opponent tonight as Denver was the top Over team in the league LY and comes in averaging 107.3 PPG at home. The string of OKC Unders ends here. Take the Over. 

The Thunder are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency (1 of 3 teams allowing less than one point per possession) and allow only 96.8 PPG. Combine that with the unexpected offensive struggles and you have a team that has been a boon for Under bettors. You have to think that the their FG% from the past five games is going to go up. The rate of 42.5% is really bad and in fact there's been only one game all year where they shot 50.0% and that was almost two weeks ago. They were just 33.7% from the field against Sacramento, so improvement tonight is all but assured. They certainly can't go just 10 of 37 from three-point range again, right? Denver has been playing better defense this year compared to last, but still gives up 106.1 PPG. 

These teams are in the same division (Northwest), so they are quite familiar w/ one another, even though the names on the back of the jerseys may change from year to year. Tonight's O/U line seems very low when you put it up against ones we saw LY when oddsmakers were projecting 225 or more total points being scored. One interesting thing about the Thunder's defense is that it seems to wilt late. When the game is close (five point margin or less), they actually own the league's worst defensive rating. Denver has scored at least 108 pts in five of its last six games, so they're certainly a team that can put the ball in the bucket. Nikola Jokic had a career-high 41 pts Tuesday against Brooklyn and that's a game where the Nuggets didn't even shoot the ball well from three-point range (9 of 34), yet still got to 112 as a team. I look for a high-scoring affair tonight. 8* Over Thunder/Nuggets

8* Calgary (9:05 ET): The Red Wings plummeted to almost the bottom of the Atlantic Division last year, finishing with only 79 points (one more than Buffalo) and out of the playoffs for 1st time in 27 seasons. They were actually fairly fortunate that things weren't worse as they would have been if not for a perfect 9-0 record in shootouts, a mark that certainly seems unsustainable, even though they've won both shootouts they've been a part of this season. A bit of a bounce back for 2017-18 seemed inevitable, but I'm still not a buyer on the Red Wings, even after they've started the current Western Canada trip 2-0. They will not sweep though as I like Calgary here. 

Both teams can actually claim Vancouver as their most recent opponent. Detroit won in B.C., 3-2, scoring the game-winner w/ just 1:14 remaining in regulation after blowing a two-goal lead. The following night, Calgary shockingly lost on home ice to the Canucks, 5-3. They did so despite allowing only 21 shots to an unrested team. That was a real "kick in the pants" for Flames' fans, who have seen their team struggle to score goals this year. Calgary is currently 30th in goals per game, yet still has a winning record and had won three in a row prior to Tuesday's loss. The situation isn't great here for a Detroit team that ranks just 22nd in goals per game as it's their third road game in five nights. They've been off the L2 nights, but are just 15-26 the L3 seasons when playing w/ exactly two days' rest. I just can't see the Wings winning for a third straight time as ML underdogs. 

Detroit is also giving up a pretty high number of shots per game (34.1) so far this year. But they've been bailed out by great goaltending, whether it's Jimmy Howard or Petr Mrazek between the pipes. I'm not sure that can continue to carry them, however. A .942 save percentage from the L5 games will be difficult to maintain and Calgary's offense has started to come around w/ a total of eight goals scored the L2 games. The Flames have been victimized by some pretty strong goaltending so far, especially at home, but we should see that start to subside moving forward. At the same time, I look for goalie Mike Smith to continue his steady play (.923 save percentage). 8* Calgary

8* Seattle (8:25 ET): The Seahawks took a brutal loss last week, falling to the Redskins (17-14) despite a rather sizable edge in total yardage (437-244). It appeared as if they were going to prevail when QB Russell Wilson led one of his patented late game rallies and a TD pass to Doug Baldwin put them up 14-10 w/ only 1:34 to go. But the usually stout defense wilted and conceded a 70-yard TD drive in just 35 seconds to lose the game. Blair Walsh going 0 for 3 on FG attempts hardly helped matters. So now, no longer even in first place in the NFC West, Seattle must travel to Arizona on a short week, laying points, and they're likely w/o Earl Thomas. Still though, I see enough firepower to get by a Cardinals team that is not as good as its record. 

Arizona is somehow 4-4 SU, despite being outscored by 62 points on the season. To put that scoroing differential in its proper context, only five teams have worse ones and that includes the Giants, 49ers, Colts and Browns. Now last year, the team did have a scoring differential that was indicative of better play than the record, but w/ so many injuries this year, it's pretty surprising to see them at .500. David Johnson was lost to injury back in Week 1 and probably isn't going to return. Of course, with Adrian Peterson now in the fold, that's no longer the issue it once was. But the fact remains that three of their wins have been at the expense of the Colts and 49ers (2) and two of those were in overtime. So again, this isn't really a competitive .500 team per se. All four losses have come by double digits. 

Seattle's defense has played two bad games this year, against Tennessee and Houston. The other six have seen them allow no more than 17 points. That's significant b/c Arizona has broken the 20 pt barrier only one time since Week 1. Another key here is success in primetime games. The Seahawks are 20-3-1 SU in them since 2010 and won their TNF game each of the last two seasons. Last time they were off a loss, they played a road game in primetime and destroyed Indianapolis 46-18. Coming off a game where he had a career-high 37 carries, I don't see Peterson being as effective here against what is a far better defensive front anyway. These teams are simply not in the same class and the pointspread is too short. 8* Seattle

10* LA Lakers (7:05 ET): I've written before that teams playing the second game of a back to back are often undervalued, especially if they're playing on the road. That looks to be the case here w/ the Lakers, who lost last night in Boston. Lonzo Ball and company fell behind big early (33-16 after 1Q) last night, but was able to make a game of it due to holding the Celtics to just 38.8% shooting. They got as close as two points. Yes, the Celtics lost TWO key players to injury (Horford, Tatum), but I was nevertheless impressed by the Lakers not giving up. Here, they're facing a Wizards team that is not only 0-5 ATS at home, but also 1-6 ATS when favored at any site w/ four outright losses. I'll grab the big number as Washington appears to be overvalued. 

The Wiz are off an incredibly embarrassing defeat, here at home, Tuesday night. They lost - as 9.5 pt chalk - to the Mavs. Not only did they lose, they lost by double digits. They allowed the Mavs, who came as losers of six in a row, to shoot 52% in the first half and score 64 points. That's pretty unforgiveable. Keep in mind the Mavs came into that game ranked 28th in the league in points per game (97.9) and wound up scoring a season-high. Defense continues to be an issue for this Wizards team as they're giving up 118.2 PPG at home. Again, they have yet to cover a game at home and are just 1-6 ATS laying points. 

By the way, this is the second time these teams have met this season. The Lakers won the first meeting, outright as a home dog, back on 10.25. It was 102-99 as 5.5-pt dogs, a game which went to OT after the Wiz were outscored by 10 in the fourth quarter. It was also one of the Lakers' best defensive efforts of the season. What Luke Walton needs right now though is #2 overall DC Lonzo Ball to start shooting the ball better. He's at only 29.5% this season, which would be the second lowest FG% over a player's first 11 games (w/ a min of 100 FG attempts) - EVER! You have to expect Ball to start shooting better moving forward. Considering the Wizards allowed 122 and 130 in home losses previous to Washington, there's no doubt in my mind that the Lakers will be able to put up enough points to cover here. They showed they can play defense against the Wiz in that first meetings, thus look for another close game. 10* LA Lakers

10* Over Ball State/Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): To say that it's been a long season in Muncie would be putting it quite mildly. Ball State, by most objective measures, is one of the five worst teams in America. They are 2-7 SU and getting outscored by over 21 PPG. One of the wins was against FCS Tennessee Tech back on Sept 16th. Conference play has been horrific. They've been outscored on average 51.2 to 9.2! Four times, they've given up at least 55 points including each of the L3 games. So, what I'm saying, is Northern Illinois should be feeling pretty good about its chances in Thursday night #MACtion. The Huskies had a four-game win streak snapped their last time out (by Toledo), so they were going to be in an ornery mood to begin with. Expect plenty of points from them here. 

Playing against Ball State will require a hefty price tag the rest of the way, so IMO, the total is the way to go here. Considering how many points per game BSU is allowing on average, the Over seems like an easy call and we may not even need much help from the Cardinals. The last three weeks have not only seen them allow 515 YPG, but 56.7 PPG. That scoring average exceeds the O/U line here, so them scoring may not even be a necessity here. What's truly frightening about the defensive numbers here, at least in the last two games, is that the opponents largely took the "foot off the gas" in the fourth quarter. Toledo had 51 pts through three quarters against them while Eastern Michigan had 49.

Northern Illinois' defense was torched in the last game as well, giving up 527 total yds. They only allowed 27 points, for which they should feel fortunate. Toledo had an 89-yard drive which ended w/ a fumble, plus two other long drives that ended w/ field goals. Now, normally the Huskies are pretty stout. Certainly, on paper, this may be the weakest offense they face all year. Three times Ball State hasn't even scored 10 pts in MAC play and their high is 17 pts. But, as already discussed, NIU can carry "most of the load" here. The last five meetings between these MAC West rivals have all been relatively high scoring w/ a minimum of 56 total pts scored. That'll do the trick here as NIU should threaten their season-high in points scored here (48 vs. Bowling Green) and if they do, then this will be an easy Over. 10* Over Ball State/Northern Illinois

8* Under Heat/Suns (9:05 ET): While the respective nicknames here may reference warmth, on the court, both Miami and Phoenix are ice cold. Miami has been a bad bet from the start of the season, going only 2-6-2 ATS its first 10 games. They're off an ugly 97-80 loss to the Warriors where they were held to just 36.1% shooting. I certainly want no part of them here, considering an 0-3 ATS record as chalk. But Phoenix isn't exactly begging for an endorsement either as they've dropped three in a row and shot even worse than Miami (34.9%) in their last game, which was a 98-92 home loss to Brooklyn. Certainly, you have to expect some improvement in shooting from one or both sides tonight, but this O/U line still seems too high, thus I'm on the Under. 

The Suns became the 1st team to fire their head coach this year, 86'ing Earl Watson after an 0-3 SU/ATS start. They'd go on to cover their first five games under interim Jay Triano, even going 4-1 SU in the process. But they've since reverted back to the team we all thought they'd be w/ the three consecutive defeats. There's a lot going on here right now as the team finally found a trade partner (Milwaukee) for PG Eric Bledsoe, who infamously tweeted "I don't want to be here" after the Watson firing. On the positive side, Devin Booker became the fourth youngest player in league history to score 3,000 pts Monday against Brooklyn. (Only LeBron, Durant and Carmello did it faster). But as we saw in that game, Booker alone is not enough to carry this team offensively. Twice in the last three games, the Suns have shot 35% from the field! 

Miami has some of its own personnel issues right now, namely Hassan Whiteside's reaction to being benched Monday. They were already w/o Dion Waiters, who is out due to the birth of his child. That leaves them quite limited offensively and the result was ugly against Golden State w/ only 80 pts scored. Interesting to note here though are each team's recent defensive showings. The Heat have held three of its last four opponents to 40% or worse from the field (including B2B games). The Suns also kept Brooklyn right around 40% as well. Low scoring games are not uncommon for Miami this time of year as they are 24-8 Under in November the L3 seasons, including 3-0 this season. 8* Under Heat/Suns

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Maple Leafs got off to a great start, winning seven of their first nine games, but currently find themselves at just 9-7 SU. They did, however, win their last time out. It required a shootout, but they got by those pesky Vegas Golden Knights, 4-3, on Monday. That improved the Leafs to 3-0 in OT/shootouts so far, a well-deserved mark considering LY's unfortunate 1-8 shootout record (which was a league-worst). So don't be surprised to see the improvement continue, moving forward. Tonight, they're hosting a Minnesota club that has really disappointed so far. The Wild find themselves in last place in the Central Division w/ only 12 points and they've lost B2B games. I can't see this being the spot where they turn things around. 

No one is denying Toronto's ability to score. They rank 2nd in the league in goals per game w/ 3.8. But it's at the other end of the ice where they get themselves into trouble. They rank 29th (third worst) in goals allowed (3.6 per game) and that's a discrepancy that must be rectified if this team is to make any real noise. Now Auston Matthews has been declared out for tonight, making it the first time the Leafs' star has EVER missed a game in his young career. But, like I alluded to earlier, offense is not my concern w/ this team. They'll find ways to score with or without Matthews. It's the other end that we need to concentrate on. Fortunately, they'll be facing a Wild team that has already been shutout twice this season. 

Minnesota also has its own goaltending issues as Devan Dubnyk is struggling and had to be pulled Monday vs. Boston. It's likely we'll be seeing Alex Stalock between the pipes here tonight. For Toronto, it should be Frederik Andersen and while he's struggled at home so far, we should see his numbers start to improve. The Maple Leafs are averaging more than 35 shots per game at home while the Wild are giving up that many on the road. Even w/o Matthews, the Leafs should find a way to outscore the Wild tonight. 8* Toronto

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): On the short list of pleasant, early-season surprises, I present the Magic. They're 6-4, which is tied for the third best record in the Eastern Conference right now. That WL record was even better before they dropped B2B games (at home), to Chicago and Boston. The latter loss is certainly excusable, considering the run the Celtics are on right now, but beating the Bulls would seem to be a prerequisite for being truly taken seriously. Another surprising 6-4 team in the East is the Knicks, who invade Orlando tonight off B2B wins, the latest coming last night against Charlotte. Interestingly, the Knicks trailed by double digits entering the 4th quarter in each of their last two wins, making it quite the improbable win streak for them. I hate the situation they're in tonight and will fade accordingly.

Just to illustrate how rare an achievement the Knicks have pulled off here, this is the first time they have EVER won B2B games when trailing by DD entering the 4Q in the shot-clock era (1954-)! It's the first time they've won B2B games when trailing by 15+ (at any point) in both since '06. Last night saw them rally back from 15 down to beat Charlotte at home, led by Kristaps Porizingis' 28 pts, which has his scoring average at exactly 30.0 PPG through 10 games. No Knick has ever averaged that many through the first 10 games - ever! Three nights ago, the team rallied from 19 back to beat Indiana, also at MSG. The first of three wins, again at MSG, came at the expense of lowly Phoenix. I know Knicks fans are DYING to cheer about anything right now and it's impressive that the team has won 6 of its last 7 (started 0-3). But, I'm just not ready to buy in yet. They are still have a negative efficiency rate. 

As I said earlier, I hate the situation tonight from the Knicks' perspective. Yes, teams are often undervalued playing in the second game of a B2B. But that's not the case here. If anything, it's Orlando that's being undervalued here. Despite B2B sub-90 pt efforts, they are still averaging 109 PPG. On the defensive end, they're holding opponents to just 41.9% shooting here at home and that's a problem for a Knicks team that comes in averaging only 95.7 PPG on the road. (Again, the entirety of this Knicks' win streak has been at MSG). The Magic have also been off since Sunday. The Knicks will also not come anywhere near the 60.0 FG% we saw last night while Orlando should drastically improve upon its own 36.3 FG% from its last game. 10* Orlando

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): These are the two best teams in the MAC and a rematch is likely in the Conference Championship Game next month in Detroit. Toledo is the ONLY team in the conference w/o a loss (5-0) while Ohio (entering Tuesday) is tied w/ Akron for the lead in the East Division at 4-1 SU. Something will have to give here as Toledo is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the road favorite role while Ohio has covered 10 of its last 13 in the underdog role. Furthermore, the Bobcats are 7-2 at the betting window this year. However, this will be - BY FAR - the toughest test to date for Frank Solich's team as Toledo's only loss all year was to still unbeaten Miami. And that's Miami FL, not Miami OH. The line has come down pretty significantly since the open and, to me, that has created a situation where there's value on the Rockets. Lay the short number. 

Toledo also has revenge here for a 31-26 loss last year (as 16-point favorites!) in the Glass Bowl. That game saw both teams roll up 500+ yards of offense, but the Rockets never led. It was their first loss to the Bobcats since '88, but keep in mind these teams do not play every season. Something history buffs may find interesting is these two teams have combined for NINE MAC Title Game appearances, but have won it only twice (both times by Toledo) and not since '04. If they were to meet in Detroit next month, it would be the first time we got Ohio vs. Toledo there. The Rockets haven't even been to the MAC Title Game since '04, which is astounding when you think about it as they have 16 1st or 2nd place finishes in the West since the conference split in '96. Ohio won the East last year. 

This year should be "Toledo's year." Western Michigan is nowhere close to as good as it was last year and Northern Illinois is still rebuilding. Plus, Toledo already beat N Illinois and won't play WMU until the reg season finale when they already might have the division wrapped up. This team has covered its last four games and is outscoring MAC opponents by 20.6 PPG while outgaining them by almost 200 YPG! Ohio has scored 45 pts three consecutive weeks, but did so against lesser competition. They did lose outright - here at home - to Central Michigan as 10-pt chalk earlier in the year. Last week, despite being Miami 45-28 (and I had the Bobcats), total yardage was basically even. All but one of Toledo's conference wins have come by double digits and while this one may not follow the pattern, it doesn't have to. 8* Toledo

10* Over Thunder/Kings (10:05 ET): Oklahoma City is only 4-5 SU coming into this game, but that's highly misleading as they own the league's third best scoring differential at +7.2 per game. (Only Golden State and Boston are higher). Three of their losses have been by four points or less, including the most recent one, which was 103-99 at Portland on Sunday. That also marked their fourth consecutive Under. Now some of these early season numbers for the Thunder remain skewed due to their 101-69 beatdown of the Bulls back on 10.28. But, I expect their scoring to start going up as well as their points allowed. Tonight, they face a dreadful Sacramento team which ranks 28th in the league in defensive efficiency. Sounds like an Over to me!

The Kings have just one win to their credit thus far and it came all the way back in the second game of the season. This is, for my money, the worst team in the league right now. They are being outscored by 12.0 PPG and their net efficiency is also a league worst. It's seven straight losses and counting and just to further illustrate how bad things have gotten here, they haven't covered the spread in any of those SU losses. They did push Saturday in Detroit, losing 108-99 as nine-point pups, but that had to still be considered quite the disappointing result as they shot a season-best 52.6% from the floor and still lost by a wide margin (trailed by 11 entering the fourth quarter). I see them offering little resistance here to an OKC team that will likely be "out for blood." 

The Kings have failed to top 100 points in four consecutive games, which is downright embarrassing in today's NBA. They at least came close Saturday after failing to score more than 86 in their previous three losses. It doesn't seem to promising for them facing a Thunder team that is 2nd in defensive efficiency, not to mention holding its opponents to a 42.9 FG%. But I believe that number is due to increase substantially for OKC as there's just no way its opponents can continue to shoot that horrendously. Remember, that Chicago game (28.2 FG% allowed) still skews things heavily w/ only nine games played. I see this as being a high-scoring game, just as OKC's last four visits to California's capital city have been. All four games went Over the total including games w/ 217 and 240 total pts scored LY. 10* Over Thunder/Kings

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Early on, it appeared as if the Clippers wouldn't miss Chris Paul at all. They opened 4-0 SU, but reality has since set it w/ them losing four of five. The most recent defeat came at home Sunday afternoon, 104-101 to Miami, a game in which they trailed by as many as 25. Things get no easier for the Clips tonight as they must travel to San Antonio. The Spurs' season has followed a similar pattern to their counterparts here as they started 4-0, only to then drop four in a row. But they've bounced back w/ B2B wins over Charlotte and Phoenix here at home. They may have actually trailed the Suns at halftime (by four), but the second half was a complete rout w/ Greg Popovich's team building a lead that got as high as 27 pts. I'll lay a short number here w/ them at home.

San Antonio is uncharacteristically not near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. That has a lot to do w/ the fact Kwahi Leonard has yet to suit up this season. He's been ruled out for tonight, as has PG Tony Parker, but there is enough holdover talent here to keep winning. Remember that last Thursday, they led Golden State by 19 before letting the game slip away (lost 112-92). Despite the lack of efficiency, the Spurs are still #5 in the league in points allowed (100.0 per game). The defense was on full display Sunday vs. Phoenix when they allowed just 13 points in a critical third quarter. LaMarcus Aldridge is having a fine year here, averaging 22.4 PPG (team-high) on 48.3% shooting (also a team-high). 

The entirety of the Clippers' 1-4 stretch was at home, which is not a good sign. The lone win was against league-worst Dallas as well. In fact, the Clips have played only two road games all year and one was against the Lakers, which really shouldn't count (teams share the Staples Center). So that leaves them having played only one "true" road game and it was a one-point win over Portland. San Antonio is notoriously one of the toughest places to play in the league and all things considered this is a really short number. Note LA is 2-12 ATS after going Over in three straight games, something they have done coming into tonight. 10* San Antonio

8* Miami OH (7:30 ET): There certainly seems to be some sharp money on the RedHawks here as they've gone from laying four points at the open to almost a touchdown at all shops (as of press time). It's certainly been a disappointing season in Oxford as there was a ton of optimism following last year's finish to the regular season where the team ended on a six-game win streak. That disappointment is reflected in a 2-7 ATS record this season, which includes a 1-5 mark when favored. Yet that hasn't stopped oddsmakers (or bettors for that matter!) here as Miami's opponent this week is a major surprise being on top of the MAC East (tied w/ Ohio). I'm going to lean on what happened to Akron in Toledo two weeks ago and lay the points Tuesday.

Though 4-1 in MAC play, Akron has outscored its conference opponents by only 14 total pts. They have two one-point victories, one of those coming in their last game, which was 21-20 over Buffalo at home. The Zips were actually outgained pretty handily in that win, 459-372, and finished w/ nine fewer first downs. They won on a late TD pass (4:46 remaining), which capped a 91-yard drive. It was a similar story in a one-point win at Western Michigan where the Zips were outgained by more than a 2:1 margin yet came away ahead 14-13 in a game that had to be pushed back a day due to inclement weather. I'm just not sure how much longer "lady luck" can continue to ride on this team's shoulder. Again, I point to the fact they were blown out by Toledo, two weeks ago on the road, 48-21 w/ the defense allowing over 600 total yds. Despite the 4-1 conference record, Akron is actually being outgained by 120 YPG by its MAC opponents! They average just 17.2 PPG on the road. 

Miami lost last Tuesday to rival Ohio, 45-28, though it was basically even in total yardage (Miami actually finished ahead, 448-443). The loss dropped the RedHawks to 2-3 SU in league play, but they are actually outgaining MAC foes by about 50 YPG, essentially making them the opposite of Akron this year. While all three wins this year have been by double digits, four of Miami's six losses have come by eight points or fewer. This game strikes me as time for a "reversal of respective fortunes" and Miami really needs this game if they are to become bowl eligible. They should also be extra motivated by a four-year losing streak to the Zips (lost 35-13 LY), their longest losing skid in the history of the rivalry! I'm not too concerned by the fact Miami may again have to go w/ backup QB Billy Bahl as they have one of the top WR in the country in James Gardner (20.1 yards per reception) and are going against the conference's worst passing defense. The RedHawks also rank 15th nationally in time of possession, so expect them to play "keep away" tonight en route to a win and cover. 8* Miami OH

8* Carolina (7:05 ET): Currently, there is an amazing amount of parity in the Eastern Conference. Of the 16 teams, 11 have between 15 and 19 points. One team - Tampa Bay - has jumped out ahead of the pack. At the opposite end of the spectrum, there are four teams that are struggling. Two of them meet here w/ Carolina hosting Florida on Tuesday. Both have lost four straight games. Two of those four losses for the 'Canes have come in a shootout, including the last one, at Arizona. Considering the Coyotes had just one win previously, that's quite the embarrassing loss. But at least they get to return home Tuesday. All four losses during the Panthers' active streak came at home and they've allowed a frightening number of goals in the last three (20!). They are also just 1-4 SU on the road.

I'm a firm believer that a team's number of shots on goal vs. allowed is an important metric which can be used to predict future success. If that's true, then Carolina is in good shape here. They are averaging 36.1 shots per game while allowing only 29.2. That's the second biggest positive gap in the league w/ their own number of shots ranking third while the number allowed being second fewest! Over the L5 games, the discrepancy has actually grown (+11.0 per game), so it's pretty head-scratching to see them struggling. As for Florida, they are giving up the highest number of shots per game in the league (37.4) by a comfortable margin, which in turn has resulted in them giving up the highest number of goals per game (4.2) in the league. It also doesn't help that they're PK unit ranks 30th (out of 31 teams) at 70.6%. 

I expect the goals to start coming for Carolina and facing the league's worst defensive team seems like a good starting point. Two games ago, they held a ridiculous 60-27 edge in shots on Colorado ... and yet somehow still lost! Saturday in Arizona was already discussed and is made more disappointing by the fact the 'Canes allowed only 24 shots on goal and still lost. I just don't think this trend can continue as they've outshot all but TWO opponents this season. Better results HAVE to be on the horizon, right? As for Florida, I'm not about to endorse a team w/ such putrid defensive numbers. They also only average 2.4 goals per game on the road, which is way down from their scoring average on home ice. 8* Carolina

10* Over Heat/Warriors (10:35 ET): Three losses in 10 games is enough to proclaim "the sky is falling" for Golden State, but that speaks to how high they've "set the bar" these L3 seasons. Needless to say, any reports of this team's "demise" have been greatly exaggerated as they return home Monday, fresh off a 3-0 SU/ATS road trip where every win came by at least 19 points. That was after starting just 4-3 SU (1-6 ATS), so it's safe to say the Dubs are back on track. Tonight, they are massive favorites in what I believe is the biggest pointspread to date this NBA season. While Miami is playing the second game of a B2B, not to mention a third road game in four nights, I'm not sure this large of a spread is justified. Therefore, I was far more interested in the total for this late night matchup.

Coming into this current trip, the Heat were 0-5-2 ATS their first seven games, leaving them as the league's lone winless team ATS. That's a far cry from last year when they were one of the best bets at the window. Of course, they did get off to a pretty horrendous start last year (11-30 SU first 41 games) before turning things around rather dramatically in the second half (went 30-11!). Here, they are off B2B close games, having lost to Denver by one on Friday (covered) and then beating the Clippers by three Sunday afternoon. One could make the arguement that the Heat should have taken both games as they led Denver most of the way and they led by as many as 25 yday, before successfully holding off a late LA rally. 

Golden State may not have the league's top record (just yet), but they are the top scoring team (by a mile) at 120.7 PPG. (Brooklyn is actually #2 at 114.3 PPG!). As a result, the Over has gone 7-3 for them so far. They've shot the ball lights out the L4 games, making over 54% of their field goal attempts. They, in fact, lead the league in FG% currently at 52.6% for the year. They were also an amazing 46 of 97 from three-point range in sweeping their three-game road trip. Now this figures to be the highest O/U line Miami sees all season, but they're a disappointing 17th in defensive efficiency thus far, so Golden State should have its way. At the same time, the Warriors have been just as disappointing at the defensive end, ranking 20th in efficiency. 10* Over Heat/Warriors

8* Dallas (8:35 ET): Of the NHL's four divisions, one could make the case that the Central is the toughest. Every team, save for one, has a positive goal differential thus far and five teams are separated by just a single point. Count these two among that group. Most, myself included, were banking on the Stars rebounding this year. This team won the Central two years ago (had most points in the Western Conference!) before plummeting down to only 79 points and out of the playoffs altogether last year. They come in off a 5-1 win over Buffalo and have won three of their last four overall. Tonight, they seek to avenge the one loss during that stretch as they host a Winnipeg team that got them, 5-2, in Manitoba last week. 

The Jets followed that win by losing at home to Montreal on Saturday, 5-4 in overtime. They are an unfortunate 0-3 in OT games thus far, but one could certainly make the case that the Jets were lucky to even be in position to win against the Habs considering they were outshot 50-23. This is a team that hasn't managed more than 27 shots on goal in any of its previous four games. At the same time, they are giving up one of the highest number of shots per game in the league at 34.5. They did outshoot Dallas last week, 27-23, but perhaps the biggest key there was on special teams as Winnipeg was able to convert 2 of 3 power play chances while not taking a single penalty themselves. I can't envision that same scenario playing out tonight.

Since losing the opener to Vegas, Dallas has won five in a row on home ice and they've done it in fairly dominant fashion by allowing just 1.7 goals per game here. Now they may be a bit shorthanded up front for this game as Radek Faska and Tyler Pitlick are both listed as doubtful. However, I'm going to lean on what I feel is a strong goaltending edge in this one for the Starts as the acquisition of Ben Bishop has proven fruitful thus far as he has a .949 save percentage on home ice. Connor Hellebuyck has been similarly stingy for the Jets, but I have less faith in him maintaining the current level of play. Bishop had arguably his worst game in a Stars uniform LW vs. the Jets and I don't see history repeating itself tonight. 8* Dallas

10* Green Bay (8:30 ET): The Packers have had two full weeks to prepare to play an opponent w/o Aaron Rodgers, who in all likelihood will not be back this season (even if the team somehow manages to make the playoffs?). I though Brett Hundley played admirably two weeks ago against the Saints, a game here at home that the Pack lost 26-17. But it was close, within one score in fact, until New Orleans scored a late TD. GB's opponent this week is Detroit, who hasn't been as lucky this season as they were last, which if you follow my writing, won't come as any shock. The Lions were one of several "fraudulent" playoff teams from a year ago as their NIINE fourth quarter comebacks were a league record. They too are off a bye after losing three straight. With two teams on losing streaks, something has to give here and I believe Hundley can play well enough to lead his team to victory.

Needless to say, no one would have anticipated GB being a home dog for this matchup. But the Rodgers' injury changed everything. Hundley threw for only 79 yards last week and under his direction, the offense has scored only 27 pts in two games w/ less than 500 total yards. But Detroit's defense may be the elixir they are looking for. They've allowed two 300+ yard passing days in the L3 games and in between gave up nearly 200 yds rushing to New Orleans. So, as bleak as things may look in Green Bay right now, there is hope. I think it would be wrong to simply write them off the rest of the way. There has been only one previous instance of them being a home dog the L3 seasons and they won the game outright. 

Detroit's offense has its own issues right now. They failed to score even one touchdown in the 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago (five field goals) despite five trips into the red zone. They now rank 28th in red zone efficiency. They cannot run the ball as only one time in seven games have they gone over 100 yards. They are averaging 82 rush YPG, which shockingly is only fifth worst. This is not a team I would trust in the road favorite role and I still think more regression is set to come after overachieving so dramatically last year. 10* Green Bay

8* Over Thunder/Blazers (9:05 ET): Not that divisions really matter anymore in today's NBA, but the Northwest looks to be pretty loaded this year w/ all five teams currently sporting a .500 record or better. In my opinion, these are the two best teams right now in the NW, regardless if the standings say otherwise. Oklahoma City is 4-4 SU, but has outscored its eight opponents by an average of 8.6 PPG. Granted, that scoring differential is owed in large part to a 101-69 beatdown of lowly Chicago last weekend. The team is coming off a very disappointing result Friday as they lost at home to Boston after blowing an 18-pt lead. Portland has actually failed to cover the spread five straight times (though four of those ATS losses have come as favorites), so something will have to give here. 

To me, the total is the better play here on this matchup, more specifically the Over. Now I say that knowing full well how stingy OKC has been this season. They're #2 in defensive efficiency and are giving up only 93.7 PPG on the road. Again though, those numbers are somewhat skewed due to a small sample size that includes the aforementioned blowout of Chicago. Opponents have shot a very low percentage against them this season (39.3% L5 games!) and that undoubtedly will start to go up. (Again, Chicago shooting only 28.2% from the field in that game skews everything). Throw in the fact that Portland is due for a little "market correction" in its own right and I see the Thunder's defensive numbers taking a hit in this matchup. 

Portland is averaging an impressive 107.7 PPG this season, which becomes more impressive when you consider that they are shooting only 42.9% from the floor. This number will start to increase as they have been shockingly poor on two-point attempts. They're actually hitting almost 40% of their three-point attempts and are also an 82% team from the FT line. So when they start hitting the "easier shots" and get inside the paint, that will counteract any likely regression from behind the arc. Defensively, the Blazers have given up 112 and 110 points the L2 games and just allowed the Lakers to shoot almost 55% for the game. Given what both teams are capable of offensively (Thunder has scored 110+ in four of five before Boston loss), this O/U line seems too low. 8* Over Thunder/Blazers

8* Under Raiders/Dolphins (8:25 ET): No matter which QB they have at the helm, this Miami offense is one of the worst in the league. In fact, statistically speaking, they ARE the worst in the league as they're dead last in both yards gained and points scored. Of course, losing your starting QB in training camp will put any offense "behind the 8-ball." After Ryan Tannehill went down, the Dolphins paid Jay Cutler to come out of retirement and even though the WL record was fine (team started 4-2), the numbers remained ugly. Then Cutler suffered a rib injury, leaving Matt Moore to start last Thursday's game against Baltimore. The results there were disastrous as the 'Fins got shut out for the 2nd time the season, this one being a 40-0 loss.

Oakland is another of those teams that overachieved last year and thus I felt would be a disappointment in 2017. (That list also included Miami, the Giants, Houston and Detroit). Sure enough, when it comes to the Silver and Black, my pessimisstic outlook appears justified. The Raiders are just 3-5 SU and any goodwill earned by their 31-30 win over Kansas City two weeks ago, was instantly thrown away w/ a 34-14 loss at Buffalo last Sunday. That loss in Buffalo marked the FIFTH time in the past six games that Oakland was held to 17 points or less! It appears as if we were too quick to annoint QB Derek Carr as anything special and WR Amari Cooper (save for the KC game) is having a pretty bad year. The Marshawn Lynch signing reeked of "overrated" and it hasn't helped that the Raiders' offensive line is nowhere near as good as it was a season ago. 

Adding to Miami's offensive woes is that the front office just decided to trade away its leading rusher, Jay Ajayi. With Cutler not 100%, I'm just not sure how this team is going to find any kind of offensive success moving forward. Before giving up a combined 68 pts the L2 wks to the Jets and Ravens (includes two defensive scores by Baltimore), each of the Dolphins' first five games stayed Under the total. Oakland is averaging just 15 PPG on the road and in their last three games away from home (all losses), they've scored 10, 10 and 14 pts. They too fell victim to a defensive score (by the Bills) last week, which was one of three turnovers they had. So, like Miami, their defensive effort was not as bad as it appeared on the scoreboard. 8* Under Raiders/Dolphins

10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Second week in a row that I'm using the Hornets as my top play of the week. Last Sunday, it was a 120-113 win at the expense of overachieving Orlando, which begat a three-game win streak for them. That came to an end Friday w/ a close loss in San Antonio where they just missed out on covering as 4.5-pt pups (lost 108-101). Speaking of "just missing out on covering," the T'wolves got "backdoored" last night by Dallas as they were outscored 30-19 in the fourth quarter, resulting in "only" a 112-99 win. That was significant for me as I had the Mavericks +13.5! As good as Minnesota may have looked (for three quarters) last night, I'm willing to bank on that not being the case tonight against a better opponent. Take the points. 

I've said this many times before, but Charlotte was my pick for "Most Improved Team" coming into the year. Now, they didn't make any particularly splashy moves in the offseason, save for bringing in Dwight Howard. But the key here is they were quite unlucky last season, most notably going 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less, not to mention 0-6 in overtime games. That's just not going to repeat itself this year. They've yet to play a game decided by three points or less this year, but this game certainly profiles as being a potentially tight affair where taking the points would seem prudent. Minnesota, who is 4-0 SU in games decided by three points or less so far, dropped to 0-4 ATS in the favorite role w/ last night's non-cover.

In fact, the T'wolves have actually been outscored in spite of their 6-3 SU record. They're giving up a woeful 111.6 points per game and rank 27th in defensive efficiency, which helps explain the poor ATS record as chalk. Prior to last night, they'd yet to win a single game by more than six points this year. Charlotte ranks 6th in defensive efficiency and is a much better team when Cody Zeller is healthy (check the record!), which he is now. Also keep an eye on Jeremy Lamb, who has scored 15+ points in nine consecutive contests. One final note is that this is Minnesota's first win streak of more than three games dating back to 2012. Laying points, they're an excellent "fade" team right now. 10* Charlotte

10* Under Avalanche/Islanders (6:05 ET): Colorado turned in a historically bad season last year, finishing w/ only 48 points and a goal differential of -112 (that was twice as bad as all but two other teams). They were last in goals scored and in goals allowed. But, this year's team is off to a shocking start. In fact, they're well on their way to having half as many points as all of LY, just one month into the campaign. They arrive in Brooklyn Sunday riding a three-game win streak, having won at Philadelphia (in a shootout) last night. The 5-4 win also marked the sixth consecutive game that the Avs finished Over the total. This play is similar to last night's Under call in that I'm calling for the scoring to subside at both ends of the ice for this team (as was the case w/ Arizona Saturday). Take the Under. 

The Isles had won five of six before running into Washington on Thursday. They lost there, 4-3, but have had two full days to recover and that's part of the reason they are big ML favorites here. Their Over streak is a game longer than that of the Avs (7 straight!), so we have a situation here where the oddsmakers had no choice to bump their O/U line up to 6.0. That's a first for the Islanders this season. There's also the fact that the Over has gone 8-0-1 in the last nine meetings between these two in NY. But many of those occurred in the old Nassau Coliseum and thus I don't believe that trend is particularly relevant. Well, other than the notion that it's probably time to start betting the other way. 

The fact that Colorado has won each of its last three games is astounding when you consider they've given up a total of 139 shots on goal! I assure you that number is no misprint! That's an average of over 46 shots per game. Goalie Semyon Varlamov has been able to bail them out the last two games by stopping 90 of 97 shots, but tonight's starter (Jonathan Bernier) actually has a comparable save percentage for the year, so there should be no drop off in play between the pipes. Also a big key to this Under play is the fact that it's a road game for the Avs. Going into last night, they were averaging only 1.8 goals per game away from home and 27.0 shots per game. Bottom line is that both teams are due for lower-scoring affairs and the fact they play each other here thus makes it an easy Under call. 10* Under Avalanche/Islanders

10* Seattle (4:05 ET): This will be the second week in a row that my top NFL play for the week involves the Seahawks. Last week, I had the Over in their game w/ Houston, which turned into a wild 41-38 for them (best game in NFL this year?). While Russell Wilson and company needed almost the full 60 minutes to achieve victory, I was holding a winning ticket a lot earlier than that as the Over hit late in the third quarter. The rest of the league can now sleep easier knowing that the Seahawks will be the last team to face Texans QB DeShaun Watson as the sensational rookie tore his ACL in practice this week and is done for the year (terrible for the league). This week's opponent is Washington, who is injury-riddled and coming off a bad 33-19 loss (at home) to the division rival Cowboys. 

Despite the somewhat "conventional" handicapping wisdom that says to take a team off a bad loss, I just don't think the spread is nearly high enough here to endorse the Redskins. In fact, my own power rankings say Seattle is the one being undervalued by about a field goal. After all, this is a team that's won 16 of its last 20 home games. Washington is a team looking to pick up the pieces following B2B NFC East losses. Last week, the offense gained less than 300 total yards against a Dallas defense that quite frankly isn't all that good. Now they turn around and face Seattle, who is allowing only 18.9 points per game, good for seventh in the league and keep in mind that number was even lower before last week. The Redskins are going to have to figure out a way to move the ball w/o TE Jordan Reed, who is one of 13 players currently listed on the injury report. I don't see that happening. 

Meanwhile, Seattle had no issues moving the ball last week as QB Wilson threw for 446 yards in a very impressive display. With Philadelphia having the best record and both Minnesota and New Orleans surprising, I don't feel that enough people are paying attention to the Pacific Northwest right now as this is the one NFC division winner from last year likely to repeat. The team's lone weak spot, the offensive line, was addressed at the trade deadline as Duane Brown was brought in from Houston. Defensively, the Seahawks should look a lot better this week now that they're not facing Watson. Seattle is not a place where you want to show up playing poorly and banged up and sadly for Washington, they currently fit both of those parameters. 10* Seattle

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): There's been a change in favorite for this NFC South matchup w/ the Falcons now in the role of chalk. Though I'm on them and the play certainly still stands, I have to admit that even I was taken a bit aback by the line move. However, perhaps it has something to do w/ the Panthers' strange decision to trade away their #1 wide receiver and close friend of QB Cam Netwon, Kelvin Benjamin. It's not as if Carolina had any kind of depth at that position plus they struggle to run the ball as well. The Panthers defense has really carried the team this year. There have been four games this year when the Panthers have been held to 17 pts or less and they've actually won two of them.

Now, you may be thinking that this is not the greatest spot for Atlanta. It is their third consecutive road game and last week they struggled just to get by the Jets (they did cover for me). But also be aware that Carolina has yet to have its bye, so this is a ninth straight game for them w/ no off-weeks. They too are off B2B road games, one win and one loss, and both were 17-3 finals. The loss was very hard-luck as they held Chicago to only five first downs, but gave up a pair of defensive scores. Last week saw them turn the tables on a struggling Tampa Bay team whose QB was not 100 percent. This week sees them playing an offense that was #1 in the league by a mile last season. Granted, Matt Ryan and company have fallen off somewhat in 2017, but there's still plenty to like there. With Carolina's defense, it's worth noting that the four opponents they've held in check would all qualify as having "bad offenses" (SF, Buf, Chi, TB). Their other four opponents - New Orleans, New England, Detroit and Philadelphia - all managed at least 24 points against them.

Conditions were not favorable (rained) for the Falcons LW vs. the Jets, but the weather should be more cooperative here. QB Ryan fumbled three times last week, yet still completed 18 passes for 246 yards and even more promising was the run game going for 140 yards w/ Tevin Campbell also being a receiving threat out of the backfield. Atlanta has beaten Carolina three straight times and I just don't see the home team having enough offense to end that streak come Sunday. 8* Atlanta

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Suffice to say, back when the NFL schedule was released, no one could have envisioned a scenario where the Rams would be favored in MetLife Stadium. Yet, here we are as one of the league's biggest surprises takes on arguably it's biggest disappointment. I was bearish on these Giants coming into the season, noting last year's team that finished 11-5 SU was extremely fortunate considering that they only outscored their opposition by 26 points (over the course of the full season). They were 8-3 SU in one-score games and received a huge boost from a defense that jumped from being one of the worst units in the league to one of the best. Now that the defense has regressed and the offense still stinks, you have a 1-6 team coming out of its bye week.

The Rams are also off a bye. They were one of the league's very worst teams a year ago, but have started 5-2 SU for 1st year HC Sean McVay, who has done wonders for his second-year QB Jared Goff. It is the Rams' offense making a quantum leap forward being most responsible for the jump up in the standings. Funny, because most thought that if this team was to improve, it would be Wade Phillips' defense leading the charge (admittedly, that side of the ball has been strong in 2 of the past 3 games). But like we saw Thursday w/ Buffalo, the market is bound to catch up to some of these early season surprises and like the Bills, the Rams are favored on the road here. That has happened one time before this season and LA was infamously "back-doored" on a Thursday night by the 49ers. I just wouldn't feel comfortable yet laying points w/ the Rams on the road. 

Since the final week of the 2010 season (yes, 2010!), the Rams have been a road favorite of more than three points only THREE times. They have not only failed to cover all three times, but also lost all three games outright. The most recent instance was 2015 at San Francisco. This is also the dreaded 1 PM (ET) start for a West Coast team and it comes on a weekend where Daylight Savings Time ends, so the Rams' body clocks may be far from normal. I get that the Giants have looked lifeless and are missing key personnel (WR position really depleted). The suspension of Janoris Jenkins certainly does not help, but the bottom line is the G-men have had the lead in three games this season. We're set to see better results from them, I believe. Take the points. 8* NY Giants

8* Pittsburgh (10:05 ET): Vancouver is one of a number of early season surprises in this league as we expected them to be bad, but they're currently in the thick of the Pacific Division race w/ 14 points. But as we saw w/ another "surprise" team last night, New Jersey, it's probably only a matter of time before this group starts falling off (Vegas too). Tonight, we're able to grab a pretty cheap number all things considered as the Penguins are the defending Stanley Cup Champions. Granted, when they've lost, it's generally been by large margins. But the Pens are still the Pens and off a loss, I'm banking on them to bounce back Saturday. 

This is the final game of a 5-game trip for Pittsburgh. They've dropped three of the previous four, scoring just one goal in every loss. The latest was to Calgary, 2-1 on Thursday. That was an overtime game and the Pens had a 44-34 edge in shots. Ironically, they've outshot every opponent that beat them on this trip, but had a shot deficit in the game they won at Edmonton. They ran into a hot goalie Thursday (Mike Smith, who made 43 saves), but I don't see that being the case tonight as Vancouver goalie Jacob Markstrom has a 1-5 SU record at home. One positive for the Pens is that they still rank 2nd in the league on the power play (at 29.1%). 

The Canucks have actually been quite stingy this year, ranking 3rd in goals allowed. But they're just 26th in goals scored per game and that's hurt them the L2 games as they've managed just one goal total in losses to Dallas and New Jersey, both taking place at home. After scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game, Vancouver is just 18-32 SU the L3 seasons. They are also an ugly 24-56 when facing a team with a winning record. They've scored one goal or less in three of the past four games. I just don't see them having the firepower to stay with the defending NHL champs. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Under Hurricanes/Coyotes (9:05 ET): Arizona has plummeted to new depths here in 2017. That's really saying something considering that it took historical levels of ineptitude (Colorado) for someone to finish below them in the standings last season. This year, it appears as if the 'Yotes are "determined" to make sure no team can finish below them. They've started out a horrid 1-12-1 w/ a goal differential of -24. They are dead last in goals allowed (4.4 per game!) and 30th (2nd worst) in penalty killing (69.7%). So their primary issue is keeping the opponent out of the back of the net. As a result, the last six games have all gone Over the total. But I'll call for that streak to end tonight as they host Carolina. 

The Hurricanes were also a bad team last year, finishing second from the bottom in the Metro w/ just 87 points. Things could have been better were it not for tying a league-high w/ 15 OT or shootout losses. However, no improvement has come thus far as like Arizona, the 'Canes are a last place team currently. Only Florida and Montreal have fewer points in the Eastern Conference. The team has lost three straight, including 5-3 at Colorado on Wednesday. That loss came despite an absolutely incredible 60-27 edge in shots on goal! I can't remember the last time a team had that many shots on goal, and the 'Canes did it in regulation! 

With the number of shots on goal we just saw from Carolina and the defensive ineptitude of Arizona, one might logically conclude that it's time for another Over here. However, the oddsmakers are onto that notion, opening the O/U line at 6.0. Granted, that's not too uncommon for the 'Yotes, but for Carolina it's just the second time all season. I just think that the O/U record of Arizona is due to even out as they're currently 11-2-1, which will be difficult to maintain. Note that three of their four goals scored against Buffalo on Thursday came in the game's final eight minutes, after they were already far behind. That kind of explosion is not indicative of this team offensively. 8* Under Hurricanes/Coyotes

10* Dallas (8:05 ET): The "glory days" are most certainly over for the Mavs as what was once a playoff mainstay has declined severely and should be considered one of the worst teams in the Western Conference. Actually, in terms of WL record, there's nobody worse than the Mavericks (in either conference) as their 1-9 SU start is a league-worst. Perhaps just as embarrassing is the team's 2-8 ATS record and both covers came at the expense of Memphis in a home and home last week. They lost last night, albeit close, 99-94 to New Orleans at home as 4.5-pt dogs. Them being in the 2nd of a B2B here adds value as early in the season we often find teams in this situation getting way too many points from the oddsmakers.

Minnesota is a team that I would hesitate to lay this many points with, at least until further notice. Case in point, they've already lost outright this season - as 10-pt chalk - to Indiana here at home (gave up 130 pts). This will be an improved team this year, maybe not to the degree originially expected (48 wins seemed a bit too much in my view), but all five wins so far have been by six points or less. Five of those have been by three points or less. So when the T'wolves win, they've been winning close. They achieved their largest MOV of the season on Wednesday, beating New Orleans 104-98 as 2-pt road dogs. I'd like to point out that Minnesota is 0-3 ATS so far in the favorite role. 

Dallas has been shooting the ball horrifically to this point as they are at only 41.5% from the floor, for the entire year. But facing the T'wolves should remedy that as they are allowing better than 50% shooting for the year, including over 55% here at home! This team has been VERY slow to pick up on Tom Thibodeau's defensive philosophy. In fact, they rank 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. This is as many points as Dallas was getting for a road game against Houston a couple weeks back. Minnesota is certainly not on Houston's level currently and they haven't won four straight games since 2012. Take the points. 10* Dallas

8* Over LSU/Alabama (8:00 ET): Just a few short weeks ago, it appeared as if LSU's streak of 16 straight years being ranked for the Alabama game was in jeopardy. But an upset of Auburn (at home) followed by a win at Ole Miss have them at #19. I'm not so sure they deserve to be ranked that high, but whatever. As for Alabama, the thought of them being unranked is simply unfathomable. The Tide come in ranked for the LSU game for a 12th straight time and they've won the L6, including 10-0 in Baton Rouge last season. The oddsmakers are NOT expecting a very competitive game here in Tuscaloosa this year, installing the Tide as three-touchdown favorites. I want no part of that spread, but do like the total and that's what I'll be playing Saturday night. 

The big story w/ 'Bama is never that they're ranked, but where they are ranked. The AP and Coaches both had them #1 all year, but the CFP committee slotted them at #2 in their initial rankings, which were released Tuesday. The difference between being #1 or #2 is pretty irrelevant for Nick Saban's team as they still control their own destiny due to a potential meeting w/ #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. To me, Alabama is the best team in the country, even though their schedule has not been particularly challenging. But they're outscoring opponents by an impressive 33.2 PPG margin. Their defense is tied for #1 in yards allowed per game (236), #1 in scoring (9.8 PPG allowed) and #1 in efficiency. But don't sleep on an offense that is better now than it was w/ Lane Kiffin's playcalling. They average 43.0 PPG and have scored at least 40 pts in all but two games this season. 

So for this game to go Over, LSU is going to need to do SOMETHING offensively. They have not scored more than 17 pts in any of the L5 meetings w/ Bama and as mentioned earlier, were shutout LY. But, I'll say this. The Alabama defense hasn't exactly faced a slew of great offenses. LSU ranks 16th nationally in offensive efficiency (Alabama is 4th!) and the previous four SEC opponents that the Tide have taken on, rank 83rd (Texas A&M), 86th (Tennessee), 45th (Arkansas) and 42nd (Vandy) in that department. In fact, the best offense the Tide have faced thus far (in terms of efficiency) would be Colorado State at #35! LSU scored 40 their last time out as well, beating Ole Miss by double digits. Note though that game saw the Rebels lose starting QB Shea Patterson for the year. The Tigers have allowed at least 23 points in five of the last six games and the one time they didn't was against inept Florida. So they're going to give up plenty of points here. I already mentioned that Alabama ranks 4th nationally in offensive efficiency. The previous highest ranking for an LSU opponent was Mississippi State at 20th and they put up 37 on Ed Orgeron's defense. 8* Over LSU/Alabama

10* Stanford (3:30 ET): Despite already having two losses on its resume, Stanford still has plenty to play for, both individually and collectively. From an individual perspective, RB Bryce Love figures to be getting an invite to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation next month. Whether or not he wins it depends on him getting healthy and how well he plays moving forward. As far as the team is concerned, they find themselves in the role of spoiler w/ home games left against both Washington (next Friday) and Notre Dame (regular season finale). Both of those teams will be looking to make the CFP. Of course, the Pac 12 Championship is still on the table for the Cardinal, who got a major scare last week in Corvallis, only beating Oregon State by a score of 15-14 (were w/o Love). There's been some question as to whether Love is going to play here, but I'm banking that he will and thus Stanford is an excellent play plus the points.

Washington State is another team that probably feels it can still win the Pac 12 Championship. They too have Washington left on the schedule, though this year's Apple Cup will be waged in Seattle. (Wazzu will be off a bye). But before we can even begin to discuss the regular season finale, we need to talk about the way the Cougars have been trending. It's been two losses in the last three games for Wazzu, one being an ugly one (37-3 at Cal), then LW's debacle at Arizona (58-37). I concede to you that both of those losses ocurred on the road. But I still never took this team seriously as a legit threat to win the conference and in fact, they hardly ever cracked my Top 25, even when they were still unbeaten. Last week saw QB Luke Falk pulled, yet Mike Leake still called 84 pass plays! 

This is a big revenge game for Stanford, which lost 42-16 (at home!) LY to Wazzu. I'm sure the coaching staff and players have not forgotten. Love's health is certainly a big deal, and something I'll be monitoring throughout the week. But the bottom line here is that you have to love a player averaging more than 10 yards per carry going up against a defense that just surrendered over 300 yards rushing last week. Weather should also be a factor Saturday afternoon in Pullman. Though Stanford is a California team, they certainly are not the kind of wide-open attack that comes to mind when we think Pac 12 offenses. If the reports are true and the weather is freezing and rainy, that's an edge for the Cardinal as Wazzu's passing attack will undoubtedly be negatively affected (and they can't run the ball). Stanford is actually averaging more points per game than Wazzu this year, which is shocking, and they're the better team getting points. 10* Stanford

8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): Are the Fighting Irish ... (gasp!) underrated? It sure seems so. Well, not by the pollsters, who placed them #3 in the initial CFP rankings. But bettors have certainly been able to cash in on this team w/ great frequency as they roll into Saturday on a six-game ATS win streak. The last two weeks have seen them destroy both USC and NC State, teams that I consider to be among the top 25 in the country. Both those games took place here in South Bend w/ the Irish winning by a combined 84-28 margin. Up next is a Wake Forest team you may hear labeled as being "dangerous," but the bottom line is that the Demon Deacons are not as good as either of ND's last two opponents and coming off an upset (of Louisville), I think they'll be the ones primed for a letdown in this spot. Lay the points. 

Notre Dame has the "honor" of being called the "best 1-loss team in America." Since losing to #1 Georgia by a single point here at home, back in Week 2, no other team has come within 20 points of them. I absolutely love the way this offense runs the ball as we've now seen four consecutive games w/ at least 318 yards over land, thanks in large part to an experienced line. That's very bad news for a Wake Forest defense which can be had. Two weeks ago, they allowed 427 rushing yards to Georgia Tech and for the season they are giving up 184 rush yards per game. Last week against Louisville, the Wake offense gave up well over 500 total yards and still won, something they will assuredly NOT be able to do here. 

On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has just as big an advantage. It starts w/ their DC, Mike Elko, having previously served as the Wake Forest DC the previous three seasons. So Elko knows the Demon Deacons' offense. Even better is that he won't have to worry about defending their top WR, Greg Dortch, who is now out for the year due to an abdominal injury. Dortch had 10 catches for 167 yds last week vs. L'ville w/ four touchdowns, so he'll clearly be missed. So too will starting RB Cade Carney. I also forgot to mention Wake will be w/o a starting safety, Jessie Bates, for this game. I think people are just looking at the spot for Notre Dame, who is off B2B beatdowns of Top 25 opponents w/ Miami on deck, and thinking letdown. But it's Wake Forest that's off an upset here and they're down several key players, including their best one on offense. I just can't see them keeping pace with the ND offense, on the road. 8* Notre Dame

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): I think it's fair to ask what Indiana has left in the tank. The last three weeks have to have taken a toll as we've seen them come up brutally short in losses to Michigan and Michigan State. Then, last week they lost outright at Maryland, giving up 42 points in the process. They did outgain the Terps, 483-345, and have nearly twice as many first downs. They even jumped out to an early 14-0 lead. But none of that mattered as QB Peyton Ramsey got hurt and Maryland got a big play early in the 2Q where they returned a blocked punt for a TD. Normally, this is situation where I'd at least consider the home dog that seems "due," but I have major concerns over the Hoosiers' state of mind right now as even becoming bowl eligible will be a chore.

Wisconsin comes to Bloomington probably feeling a bit disrespected. I hate when teams play that card. But in the case of the Badgers, they are one of three Power 5 teams to be unbeaten, yet they are also ranked only 9th in the initial CFP rankings. (Interestingly, Miami is #10, but Alabama is #2). Winning out would certainly have to land the Badgers in the top four though, right? Yes, we can poke fun at their schedule thus far. But if they beat both Michigan and Ohio State, they'll be in. As for this game, they come in off a lackluster 24-10 win at Illinois where the edge in total yards was very slight. That said, they were up 24-3 for most of the fourth quarter before conceding a touchdown in the final minute. It was the third straight game that the Badgers' defense allowed 13 pts or less.

The IU QB situation being what it is, I see them struggling to score points Saturday afternoon whether it's Ramsey or Richard Laglow starting. Wisconsin is allowing only 12.9 points per game for the season and Northwestern is the only team to top 17 against them. The Badgers and Hoosiers haven't played since 2013, which is probably just fine from the IU perspective as they've dropped nine in a row to the team from Madison and done so by an average of 37 PPG! I realize that Badgers' bellcow Jonathan Taylor is currently listed as questionable for this game, but with or without him, I see the offense being able to move the ball against a suspect Indiana defense which has three times permitted 42 points or more. 8* Wisconsin

10* Miami (9:05 ET): It's always interesting, at least early in the season, when you have two non-playoff teams from a year ago facing off and both think have postseason aspirations for the current year. That's what we have in this matchup w/ Denver hosting Miami. The Nuggets know they probably don't have a chance to crack the top four in the Western Conference, but beyond the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, they have as good a shot as any team out West (of making the playoffs). Over in the East, Miami actually finished with the fifth best point differential (+1.1 per game), but ended up at only .500 due to digging themselves to big of a first half hole (went 11-30 SU first 41 games). This year, it's the pointspread giving the Heat problems as they are the ONLY team in the league yet to cover a single time (0-5-2). But I'm calling for that to change here. Take the points.

Ironically, the Heat were one of the best ATS teams in the league last season (funny how that works out!). I faded them in the season opener, which ended up being a 116-109 outright loss to Orlando. Since then, they've gone 3-3 SU, but the wins were over Indiana, Atlanta and Chicago, who you can expect to find near the bottom of the Conference by season's end. Also, all three wins were at home. In fact, the Heat haven't played a road game since the season opener in Orlando. They're set to embark on a six-game road trip, most of them out West, but one of the (literally!) big reasons I like them here is that Hassan Whiteside is back in the lineup. Making his 2017-18 season debut Wednesday, the big man had 13 pts and 14 rebounds in just 26 minutes as Miami beat Chicago 97-91. 

Denver is off an impressive win, 129-111 over Toronto, to start this season-long six-game homestand. Anything that could go right for the Nuggets there, did, and they led by 32 pts going into the fourth quarter. But I wouldn't look for such a performance to be duplicated anytime soon. I'm a little miffed at how much respect the Nuggets are commanding in the marketplace as they've been favored in every game since the season opener. They're just 3-4 ATS during the stretch w/ two of the wins coming against Sacramento and Brooklyn. The road team won both matchups between these two last season. 10* Miami

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): Expectations were "through the roof" in Alberta coming into this season. The Oilers, led by Connor McDavid, were supposed to reclaim lost glory (this was the league's premier franchise in the 1980's w/ Wayne Gretzky) and possibly contend for the Stanley Cup. However, let's never forget what they say about the best laid plans. Instead, what we've gotten from the Oilers thus far is a whole lot of disappointment as they're 3-7-2 (7 pts) and the only team below them in the Pacific Division is league-worst Arizona. Now, I was not quite as bullish on the Oilers coming into this year, but I do believe tonight is a great "buy low" opportunity as they host the surprising Devils.

New Jersey's resume reads the exact opposite of Edmonton's. Nothing was expected from the Devils in 2017-18 as they were coming off a last place finish in the Metro and were again one of the league's lowest scoring teams. But, rather shockingly, they are off to a 9-2 start and tied w/ Columbus and Pittsburgh atop the Metro. Only the three other division leaders can lay claim to having more points and what's most shocking of all is the team currently ranking third in goals per game (3.6). If these were any other two teams, I might decide the one with the better record would be an easy call, but not in this matchup as I don't think either team's start is representative of what we'll see moving forward.

Case in point: Edmonton is somehow only 2-5 SU on home ice despite averaging a monster 40.4 shots per game! Overall this season, opposing goaltenders have posted a pretty incredible .942 save percentage against them. Over the course of a season, no team will face such stingy goaltending. The Oilers lead the league in shots per game, yet somehow are LAST in goals per game! Better results will certainly be on the way, however, if they continue to pepper the net. Even more remarkable is the Oilers are top 10 in fewest shots allowed! So they're really dominating possession despite the disappointing results. As for New Jersey, they're being outshot this season and consider they're allowing the third most (shots) per game, it's remarkable they have the record that they do. Past Devils' teams could never have overcome giving up 34.5 shots per game. But the pattern so far this season has seen the Devils win three straight and lose their next time out. It's happened two times thus far. Well, Wednesday's 2-0 shutout of Vancouver made it three straight wins. Time to lose again! 10* Edmonton

8* New York (7:35 ET): The Knicks are not good, but fortunately for them, neither are the Suns and that's who they're hosting Friday night at MSG. It was exactly a week ago when I took the Knickerbockers in an almost identical situation, that being laying a short number at home against a bad team. The result was a 107-86 beatdown of the Nets, which was NY's 1st ATS win of the season (started 0-3). They quickly followed that w/ upsets of the Cavs and Nuggets, but saw the three-game win streak come to an end Wednesday when Houston showed up and blew them out. I like this spot as a bounce back as the Suns have overachieved since making an early season coaching change. They're 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) for interim HC Jay Triano. But I don't think anyone thinks this is the start of something big and thus I'll fade them here. Lay the points.

Under Triano, Phoenix has averaged 113 PPG. But they've faced some bad defensive teams during this stretch and scored 122 in B2B games. One of those was against Brooklyn. The other, which took place Wednesday, saw them battle back from a 20-point deficit to defeat Washington. That comeback was led by TJ Warren, who finished w/ a career-best 40 points. Again, not to "beat a dead horse," but I expect regression to start taking hold here. This is not a good team and it's either them or Sacramento that will finish in the basement of the Western Conference. This was a team that posted only ONE three-game win streak last season and all three games were at home. 

The Knicks are off a horrific defensive effort as they allowed Houston to sink 19 three-pointers in the 119-97 loss. The good news is that NY is 16-12 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 115+ points their previous game. Kristaps Porzingis was unable to finish the game Wednesday due to being sick and while he's currently not a lock to play, he is listed as probable. So I expect far more from him than the 19 points he scored against the Rockets. This is also a bit of a revenge spot for the Knicks, who twice lost to Phoenix last season, both times by just two points. The Knicks won't get my endorsement too often, but for the second Friday in a row, they're being undervalued (against a bad team) at home. 8* New York

analysis soon

8* Under Marshall/Fla Atlantic (6:00 ET): Conference USA has turned somewhat "upside-down" this year. Granted, this isn't all that shocking considering a number of teams (these two among them) profiled as dramatically improving here in '17. But the top three from last year - Western Kentucky, La Tech and Old Dominion - are all struggling (combined 5-8 in conf play). Middle Tennessee is battling key injuries. So that has opened the door for Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic to wrest control of the C-USA East Division at 4-0 SU w/ every win coming by two touchdowns or more. Regular clients of mine will recall me labeling this team as one of the most likely to improve from last year as Kiffin inherited the most experienced roster in the country.

Marshall had not lost a C-USA game until last week. In fact, their only loss had been to a ranked NC State team, on the road, and they covered the spread there. Like FAU, the Thundering Herd were very likely to improve coming off a 3-9 season as they'd won 10+ games each of the three previous seasons. But then last week happened and they were beaten 41-30 as 15-pt favorites by FIU in Huntington. It was a -3 turnover margin that doomed them there, thus negating a 505-401 edge in total yards. That said, they did trail 28-7 at half and 35-14 entering the 4th quarter before rallying late to make a game of it. There was a defensive score from FIU in the game plus Marshall converted a pair of two-point conversions. So scoring was a bit inflated. I bring that up because now we have the highest O/U line - by far - for any Marshall game this year. The Herd have scored 30+ three straight weeks, but still average just 28.4 PPG for the season. 

I absolutely expect a motivated Marshall team here. Their defense ranks near the top of the country in scoring, allowing just 17.6 points per game. (That's top 15). They'll need that defense to show up here against a FAU team that has scored 38 or more in every C-USA game so far. Special teams actually keyed the 42-28 win over WKU last week, a game in which the Owls actually trailed 28-20 going into the 4Q.  The week prior, they were my *10* Game of the Week and scored on each of their first 11 drives (!) in a 69-31 beatdown w/ a conference record 804 yards! So this offense has been pretty impressive, needless to say. But this will be the best defense they will have faced since Wisconsin. Marshall allowed just 16 pts total in its first three C-USA games and has held four different opponents to 10 pts or less. If FAU isn't forcing TO's here, then they will struggle to score. 8* Under Marshall/Florida Atlantic

analysis soon

10* Over Bills/Jets (8:25 ET): This is a rematch from Week 1, when the Bills opened the season w/ a 21-12 win and cover (as seven-point chalk) in Orchard Park. But even with that result, you could say BOTH teams have drastically overachieved in 2017. Vegas still doesn't respect the Bills all that much, but looking at their schedule, it seems as if there's a pretty good chance this team makes the playoffs. Keep in mind I have an outstanding ticket on this team beating its projected win total (6.5), but in making that bet, I could not have envisioned them performing so well. As for the Jets, they were universally being called the worst team in the league coming into the season. But here they are at 3-4 SU, needing only one win to exceed the number of wins that the oddsmakers projected for them. With two overachievers, I'm refraining from a play on the side, and will instead make a play on the total.

Buffalo crushed Oakland last week 34-14 as three-point favorites. That win improved them to 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS. One area of concern I have for this game is that while the Bills are a perfect 4-0 SU at home, they're just 1-2 SU on the road. However, I am pretty convinced that they should be able to move the ball against this Jets defense. In Week 1, they rolled up over 400 yds against them, including 190 on the road. An offense that led the league in rushing last year again ranks near the top w/ 124.6 YPG this year (8th). On the other hand, the Jets' defense ranks 28th in stopping the run. The Bills' passing game just got a much needed "jolt in the arm" as well w/ the trade for WR Kelvin Bejamin. Wide receiver had been a real weak spot for this offense after a number of players at that position were dealt away shortly before the season started. Buffalo has scored 30+ points in B2B games and LW's 34 was a season-high. 

The Jets have lost three straight, but all of those were by seven points or less. The 12 pts scored in the first matchup w/ Buffalo still stands as a season-low as they've scored at least 20 in five of the previous seven games. But, at the same time, they've also allowed at least 24 pts in every game during the current losing streak. This is a pretty low number, not surprising as five of the previous six meetings have stayed Under the total. A big difference between this game and Week 1 is that the Jets average 373.5 YPG at home, way more than what they average on the road. Last week's game vs. Atlanta saw 30 point scored by halftime before a low-scoring 2H. This total is just too low in my estimation. 10* Over Bills/Jets

10* Over Warriors/Spurs (8:05 ET): Last season saw the Warriors and Spurs combine for only 36 losses the entire regular season. This season may have started earlier than normal, but it is nevertheless downright shocking that the two have already combined for six losses and we just turned the calendar to November. However, after a 4-3 SU/1-6 ATS start, Golden State definitely appeared motivated Halloween Night in a 141-113 beatdown of the rival Clippers. San Antonio, meanwhile, has lost three straight. All of those losses occurred out on the road, against Eastern Conference teams. The Spurs failed to score 100 pts in any of the three losses, but this is the Warriors they're playing here and thus I see plenty more scoring taking place. I'm on the Over.

It may be a disappointing start to the season for the Dubs, yet they remain the league's highest scoring team at 121.0 PPG. Six of their eight games have gone Over the total, including three straight, all of which had O/U lines of 221 or higher. While this will be the highest O/U line for any Spurs game this season, it ranks on the lower end of the spectrum for Golden State. In fact, it's just the third time for them that the O/U line is lower than 221 pts. They couldn't miss Tuesday in LA, connecting at a 58.4% clip overall, including 14 of 29 from three-point range. Steph Curry led the way w/ 31 and the team scored at least 33 pts in every quarter. The Warriors have now scored at least 117 pts in all but two games and have shot 55% or better from the field four times in the last five games.. But if there is an issue worth monitoring right now, it is on the defensive end of the floor as they're giving up 114.1 PPG.

San Antonio has been w/o Kwahi Leonard from the start, which certainly helps explain their rough beginning to the season. Leonard is obviously one of the best two-way players in this league and his absence is being felt at both ends of the floor. The Spurs are w/o Tony Parker as well, so they're not even close to operating at "full strength" right now. Being that they are one of only two teams (Utah is the other) that is neither scoring nor allowing 100 PPG, I recognize that it is a bit risky to side w/ the Over here. However, consider the opponent and the Spurs HAVE to start shooting better as they've finished at 41% from the field or lower in all three games during the current losing streak. The Spurs are 17-6 Over as an underdog the L3 seasons. Also, all four games in LY's Western Conference Finals went Over the total. 10* Over Warriors/Spurs

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Second night in a row that I'm playing against the Flyers on the road. Last night, it was a 3-0 shutout w/ the Blackhawks and coming off that loss, I really dislike Philly's chances here against the top team from the Central Division. The Blues have opened the season by going 10-2-1 and their 21 pts are currently tied w/ Tampa Bay for most in the entire league. They are also the only team in the league yet to lose at home (5-0 at Scottrade Center). Considering the issues the Flyers continue to deal with on the back end (talked about that in yday's analysis) and the fact this situation is hardly ideal, I'll gladly back the home team here.

As discussed yday, the Flyers' blue line has been wrecked by injuries. Four of their seven active defensemen are rookies. That's starting to show in terms of the number of shots allowed as the last two games have seen them give up 34 and 35. That includes the indignity of losing to previously winless Arizona at home, back on Monday. With the inexperienced blue line, the Flyers could really use some strong play between the pipes, but they're not getting it as Brian Elliott has a save percentage of only .892 for the season and Michael Neuvirth (likely to get the nod tonight) is down at .873 on the road thus far. Of course, last night saw the offense fail score, which means it doesn't matter how good or bad the play is on the other end of the ice. The only other time the Flyers have had to play B2B nights this year was the first two games of the season and they were shutout by the Kings in the second game there. 

As for the Blues, there are far less issues going on currently. They've won four straight and are unbeaten in regulation the L7 games (6-0-1). They are off B2B four-goal efforts, which is a good sign seeing as their record this season after scoring 4+ goals in the previous game is 5-1. While the Philly blue line has been ravaged by injuries, St. Louis' defensemen have stepped up and contributed 14 goals so far. This team is rested and ready having not played since Monday. Goalie Jake Allen has played well, especially at home where his save percentage is .942. Considering the Flyers have been shutout three times in 13 games, Allen should be more than up to the task here. 8* St. Louis

10* Temple (8:00 ET): The AAC is having another strong year w/ UCF threatening to be this year's "Group of Five" team in a New Year's Six Bowl Game. But both Navy and Temple, particularly the latter, are teams that have taken respective steps back in spite of the conference's overall ascension. These two met in LY's AAC Championship Game w/ the Owls winning big, 34-10 as 2-pt dogs in Annapolis. With the HC of that team, Matt Rhule, having departed for Baylor though, there was no way the Owls were going to repeat last year's 10-4 SU (and 12-2 ATS!) records. Sure enough, they come into this week at 3-5 SU and ATS. As for Navy, they started 5-0 SU, but have since dropped B2B games. I like the way Temple matches up here (familiar w/ triple option!) and will take them as a home dog. 

Now it's essentially a entirely different coaching staff, not to mention front seven, for Temple here compared to LY's Conference Championship Game. But still, they catch a break in having additional time to prepare for this matchup, not that they needed it though as they faced Army in their last game! The Owls did allow 248 rush yards in that 31-28 loss, but that was on 50 carries. So they defended the triple option relatively well. I should also mention how three of Temple's four losses this year have been by seven points or less. Like Navy, they're far better suited as underdogs. They covered as seven-point dogs against Army, a game which went to overtime and the Owls probably should have won in regulation. Not only did they outgain the Black Knights 506-389, but they had a seven-point lead w/ 90 seconds left in regulation, only to allow the typically anemic Army passing attack to carve them up! It was a similar story two weeks ago vs. UConn where Temple held almost a 2:1 edge in total yards (28-15 in first downs), but lost by four. 

Navy's two losses this year came against the teams most likely to represent the AAC in this year's Conference Champ Game, Memphis and UCF. The loss to UCF saw QB Zach Abbey leave in the third quarter due to a concussion and the Midshipmen's 17-game home regular season win streak come to an end. Of course, they were also handled LY here in Annapolis by this Owls' defense, getting held to a season-low in total yardage. Abbey's health is certainly something to monitor here, though the coaching staff has said he will play. Still, you have to wonder about performance after being knocked out. Both of these teams have been outstanding ATS in recent years, but I gravitate towards the fact Temple is 12-3 ATS the L15 times it has gotten points. 10* Temple

10* LA Dodgers (8:15 ET): If you're like me, then you had the feeling this World Series was destined to go the distance as we have two seemingly evenly matched ballclubs that were - generally speaking - the best in their respective leagues during the regular season. The problem for Houston, however, is that the winner-take-all Game 7 is at Chavez Ravine, which is #1 for visitor run suppression this season. The pitcher-friendly environment got a hold of the Houston bats yet again last night as they were held to just one run on six hits. It was the third time in the series that the Astros were held to two runs or fewer while collecting six or less hits. For the season, visiting teams are batting just .215 in this ballpark while scoring an average of 3.3 runs per game. Houston fans will want to lean on the fact that they were the highest scoring road team in the regular season, but the loss of the DH hurts them here w/o question. I'm calling for the Dodgers to win the 2017 World Series tonight. 

For the third consecutive game, we have a starting pitching rematch from earlier in the series. In both previous instance, the starter that lost the initial meeting would win the rematch. Or at least their team did. Game 5 was a Game 1 rematch between Dallas Keuchel and Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw had outdueled Keuchel in Game 1 here at Dodger Stadium, but it was a far different result in Game 5 as the Astros won a classic, 13-12 in 10 innings (scored six runs off Kershaw). Then, last night in Game 6 marked the second time Justin Verlander and Rich Hill started against each other. Verlander and Houston had won Game 2, but last night it was Hill and the Dodgers' turn, ending Verlander's run of perfection in a Houston uniform (TSR was previously perfect). This trend certainly bodes well for Yu Darvish and the Dodgers tonight in Game 7 as Game 3 saw him chased after just 1 2/3 innings (allowed 4 runs). That made for an easy win for Lance McCullers, Jr and Houston at home. But I don't see McCullers beating Darvish twice in a row, especially now that the rematch is in LA.

There's a bad trend in play here for Houston and that's the fact they are 0-6 this season when priced as a road underdog of +125 to +175. While they are 8-1 at Minute Maid Park this postseason, on the road the Astros are just 2-6. Need I remind you that the Dodgers were the best home team in the regular season and now sport a 63-25 record at Chavez Ravine (6-1 in playoffs). Darvish had allowed 1 or 0 ER in five consecutive outings before Game 3, so I look for him to bounce back now that he's in a friendlier ballpark and doesn't have to worry about facing a designated hitter. As for McCullers, he had won just one time in the second half before Friday. It's not as if he was dominant in Game 3 either as he had more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). One final note is that the Dodgers' bullpen is in a "better place" currently compared to their Astros' counterparts. Homefield matters in Game 7 and I'll call for Dodger Blue to win its first WS since 1988! 10* LA Dodgers

8* Chicago (8:05 ET): After a fast start to the season, the Blackhawks have now dropped three in a row and find themselves closer to the bottom than the top in the logjammed Central Division. Going back a bit further, we find that they've dropped five of their last six as well w/ the only win coming against league-worst Arizona. Perhaps a return home might do them some good, however. It's not like the opponent is any "great shakes" as Philly suffered the indignity of being the first team to lose to Arizona in its last game. Overall, the Flyers have dropped three of their last four and - due to injury - are battling a number of injuries that have left them quite inexperienced on the blue line. You know the Blackhawks won't be down for long, so I'm "buying low" here.

Four of Philadelphia's active seven defensemen are rookies. It's shown w/ them allowing four or more goals in three of the past four games. We're also starting to see them allow more shots as the 34 allowed against the 'Yotes were the most given up by the Flyers in any game in nearly two weeks. With the lack of depth across the blue line, the team could really use some strong play between the pipes right now, but they're not getting it as #1 goaltender Brian Elliott comes in sporting an .884 save percentage for the season as well as a 3.23 goals against average. The fact that the team has still managed to go 5-2-1 in his 8 starts should be considered fortunate. Chicago is familiar w/ Elliott due to his time spent in St. Louis and in 18 career games against them, his save percentage is only .910.

The Blackhawks reportedly had a spirited practice session Tuesday as HC Joel Qunneville chewed them out for lack of effort and thus extended the actual practice time. I fully expect the team to respond accordingly. Goaltender Corey Crawford comes in w/ a .935 save percentage overall and .950 at home. He did not play in the team's embarrassing 6-3 loss at Colorado on Saturday. Despite losing, Chicago has dominated in terms of shots on goal each of the last two games w/ an 86-58 edge over the Preds and Avs. The problem has been a power play, which is now 1 for its last 21. But I expect that area to improve and offensively, I'm calling for a big game here from the Blackhawks. Crawford should be able to handle the rest and thus the 'Hawks will improve to 4-1 SU vs. the Eastern Conference this season. 8* Chicago

10* Western Michigan (7:05 ET): First off, the reason for the line dropping here is that WMU QB Jon Wassink is out w/ a broken collarbone. He sustained the injury in the Broncos' 20-17 OT win at rival Eastern Michigan 11 days ago and is done for the regular season. As deflating as that can be for a team, I still favor WMU by a far more significant margin than the oddsmakers are, against this latest "directional" opponent. A reason for Central Michigan getting some additional respect here in this spot is that they are coming off a 56-9 win. But I wouldn't read too much into that as the opponet was Ball State, who is not just one of the worst MAC teams, but also among the very worst teams in the entire country. I plan on taking advantage of this deflated line. You should too! 

It certainly didn't take long this season for Western Michigan to exceed their number of losses from LY, but that was to be expected after a "dream" 13-1 campaign landed former HC PJ Fleck the job at Minnesota. There was simply no way this year's team was going to match what the 2016 group did. But after opening w/ losses against USC and Michigan State (no shame there), the Broncos have played well, winning five of their last six. Their one loss came against Akron in a rescheduled affair that had to be played a day later (on a Sunday) due to flooding. I'd say that game certainly qualifies as "extraordinary circumstances." Yes, WMU has won two overtime games so far, one of them a record-setting 7 OT affair w/ Buffalo (71-68). But they're still outscoring MAC foes by two touchdowns per game while outgaining them by 78 YPG. 

Now, the Wassink injury does change things a bit. 1st year HC Tim Lester will be turning the reigns over to a freshman, Reece Goddard, who has thrown all of three passes in his college career. But having the additional time to prepare Goddard for his 1st start is huge, at least in my estimation. Central Michigan's defense is by no means great as they'd given up at least 27 points in six of their first seven contests. I expect Western Michigan to still move the ball here, thanks to RB Jarvoin Franklin, who has become his school's all-time leading rusher following three consecutive 100+ yard games. Also, it's worth noting that Goddard did led the GW drive to beat Eastern Michigan. Even though that was on a short field, he'd previously led an 11-play, 61-yard drive near the end of regulation that resulted in a missed FG. Central Michigan has lost three straight times to WMU and is only 3-7 ATS when off a MAC win. 10* Western Michigan

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Milwaukee let me down last night, big time, so I'm going after them here. Actually, that's not the sole reason as even had they beaten the Thunder at home Tuesday night, they'd still find themselves playing the 2nd game of a B2B here, on the road, against a team I feel is set to be among the most improved in the league this year. The Hornets are in off B2B wins here, first cashing as my *10* Game of the Week on Sunday (over Orlando), then upsetting Memphis (on the road) the following night. As I've written about previously, Charlotte is a much better team when Cody Zeller is in the lineup and it's no coincidence that the team has won both games since he returned from his knee injury. Now they're back at home and I'll lay the short number.

As alluded to at the top, the Bucks did not play well last night. They were soundly beaten at home, 110-91 by Oklahoma City, as 2.5-pt dogs. "The Greek Freak," Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to put up MVP-like numbers (28-8-3 last night), but the problem is that the Bucks are not a deep team. That became obvious last night when he had to go to the bench early due to foul trouble. The Bucks were just 1 of 14 from three-point range at one point and never really did get back in the game after falling behind by double digits in the 1st quarter. They trailed by 18 at the half, at home, mind you. It's not as if OKC had been overtly impressive prior to last night's game either. Milwaukee is also going to miss Greg Monroe, who is out for at least 12 days. Him not making his usual presence felt in the paint last night really hurt the Bucks - at both ends. 

This is also an early season revenge spot for the Hornets, who lost 103-94 (as 6.5-pt dogs) in Milwaukee back on 10.23. They did not have Zeller for that contest and shot just 42.3% from the field. It wasn't exactly a banner shooting night yday either, but Charlotte was able to overcome a double digits deficit and going just 41.6% from the floor to beat Memphis 104-99 Monday night. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies had not lost a home game before Monday. Kemba Walker led the way w/ 27 points after going for 34 Sunday vs. Orlando. Believe it or not, but Dwight Howard also looks revitalized here. I say that even though he's off - easily - his worst game in a Hornets' uniform. I expect him to play much better tonight, especially because he won't have to deal w/ Monroe. Charlotte is also playing excellent defense so far as opponents are shooting just 40.9% against them for the year! They are top six in defensive efficiency, which is far ahead of Milwaukee, who ranks just 19th. 10* Charlotte

10* Under Astros/Dodgers (8:15 ET): Game 5 of the 2017 World Series was one for the ages as the Astros prevailed 13-12 in 10 innings to take a 3-2 series lead. Really, it was a "must win" for the American League Champs with Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary) to be played at Dodgers Stadium. In my analysis for the 1st two games of this series, I went into great detail about the "park effect" as Chavez Ravine was #1 in MLB during the regular season for visitor run suppression. While Houston was the highest scoring road team in all of baseball, they now have to adjust to not having the DH in the lineup again. Game 1 saw them held to only three hits in a 3-1 loss while Game 2 didn't see the offense wake up until late. In fact, Game 2 was a 3-1 game (in favor of LA) going into the 8th. We've got a repeat of that starting pitching matchup for Game 6 and as long as the respective bullpens can do their job and we avoid extra innings, then I see the Under cashing here.

A total of seven home runs were hit (5 by Houston) in the 25-run Game 5 Sunday night, an offense display for the ages. Already this series has seen a record number of home runs hit (22) for a Fall Classic. But I'd like to go back to Game 2 for a moment, a contest which seemed like a sure Under until the Astros were able to tie the game (at 3-3) in the top of the ninth. Even going into extra innings, the game still had a chance to stay Under if the winning team would score just one run and the hold the opponent w/o one. Instead, what we got were more runs scored in the 10th and 11th innings combined (7) than the previous nine (6)! Tough break. The extra frames essentially negated what was another masterful performance from Astros starter Justin Verlander, not to mention the one from the Dodgers' Rich Hill.

Since coming over from Detroit, Verlander has just been ridiculous for the Astros. They've won 10 straight times when he's taken the mound. He has a 1.69 ERA and 0.771 WHIP his L7 starts. He's actually gone 12 consecutive starts w/o allowing more than 3 ER and the only time he allowed more than 2 ER was Game 2, but the 3 ER allowed came w/ allowing only two hits. So I'm pretty confident that Verlander can again hold up his end of the bargain. As for Hill, we're talking about a pitcher that has allowed 2 ER or fewer in eight consecutive outings (2.00 ERA, 0.972 WHIP L7 starts). He has a 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP at home this season. In two of the games in this World Series, Houston has been held to three hits or less. The Dodgers had collected seven or fewer hits in each of the first four games of this series. Game 5 was the outlier here w/ the ridiculous offensive explosions on both sides. I expect a good ol' fashioned pitcher's duel here in Game 6. Again, visiting teams averaged only 3.3 rpg while batting a collective .226 this year at Dodgers Stadium. In the last seven games, Houston has held the Yankees and Dodgers lineups to a minuscule .198 batting average. 10* Under Astros/Dodgers

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Two teams w/ lofty 2017-18 expectations meet in Milwaukee Tuesday as the Bucks host the Thunder. OKC is coming off a whitewashing of Chicago, 101-69 on the road, but let's keep in mind the opponent there and the fact that the Thunder are still only 3-3 SU on the young season w/ their three wins coming against three very bad Eastern Conference teams (Knicks, Pacers, Thunder). As for Milwaukee, they've lost to Cleveland and Boston, a sign that they may not be ready to leap into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference just yet. But I like the value here on them at home as this will be the 1st time since the season opener (won 108-100 over Boston) that they are NOT favored. OKC has its version of a "Big 3" this year (Westbrook, Anthony, George), but Milwaukee has the NBA's leading scorer in Giannis Antetokounmpo (34.7 PPG) and he just may be the best player on the court tonight, which is saying something. 

Coming off a lopsided result like Saturday may not bode well here for the Thunder. They are just 3-8 ATS the L3 seasons after a game where they held the opponent to 85 points or less. They may not have an opponent shoot as poorly as the Bulls (28.2%) did Saturday, the rest of the season. It's interesting that in all three wins this year, OKC's opponent has shot the ball horrendously, including a 33.7% effort from Indiana last week. Opponents will certainly not go on shooting under 42% for the year against the Thunder, so take those defensive numbers w/ a "grain of salt." Facing the league's leading scorer is bound to affect those defensive numbers. Antetokounmpo has scored 30 or more pts in five of the first six games and additionally is averaging 10.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. No player in league history had ever previously averaged 34-10-5 over his team's first six games!

Now OKC has Russell Westbrook, who already has three triple doubles in the first six games, also a first in league history. But lost in the fact that the Thunder have benefited from some truly horrific shooting performances from their opponents is the fact they haven't shot the ball all that well themselves. Only once this year have they shot 50.0% in a game. Every other game has seen them at 48% or below. Tonight, they face a team that is third in the league in both effective FG% and true shooting percentage. I'm not ready to buy into OKC as any kind of defensive stalwart yet and w/ this being their third road game in five nights, I see them struggling to stop the "Greek Freak" and company. 8* Milwaukee

8* Ohio (8:00 ET): Miami-Ohio is actually one of the MAC's top rivalries. Known as "The Battle of the Bricks," Ohio has won 10 of the previous 11 matchups and LY's 17-7 victory in Oxford was the tiebreaker that allowed Frank Solich's Bobcats advancing to the Conference Championship Game. (Both teams went 6-2 SU in conference play). Coming into this year's meeting, Ohio finds itself w/ the top overall record among MAC East teams (6-2), but they're one-half game back of Akron for the division lead. Miami has been one of the bigger disappointments in the country as they're only 3-5 SU after ending LY on a six-game win streak (excluding bowl). The RedHawks have been favored in almost all of their games (w/ Notre Dame being the only exception), but here they look to be "up against it" especially if QB Gus Ragland is again unable to play. Lay the points. 

Ohio lost an early season TV game, at Purdue, 44-21. They were actually just a short dog in that game, despite being the road team against a Big 10 opponent. Three consecutive victories followed, but then the Bobcats were upset at Central Michigan, losing 26-20 as 10-pt chalk. But now, they can again make it three straight wins following a loss as the L2 games have brought B2B 48-point efforts, including an annihilation of Kent State two Saturdays ago, 48-3. The OU defense allowed only 166 total yards in that game. The Bobcats have covered the spread in all six wins this season and gone 5-1 SU/ATS as favorites. Over the L3 seasons, they've won 17 of the 22 games in which they've been favored.

The last two years have seen the Miami offense manage a total of only 10 points against this Ohio defense. If they again have to go w/out Ragland, I don't like the underdogs chances here. But even w/ their starting QB, there's no guarantee of improved play. The team is only 2-4 SU/ATS w/ Ragland as the starter this year and that includes an awful home loss to Bowling Green, who hasn't beaten anybody else this year. I get that it's desperation time for the RedHawks, who must win three of their final four games just to be bowl eligible. But they're up against the best team in their division here, possibly w/o their starting QB, and Ohio is outscoring opponents by more than four touchdowns per game here in Athens. I'm not buying any kind of defensive resurgence for Miami here, even though they've allowed just 31 pts total the L2 games. They were fortunate to be +2 in turnover differential in the 24-14 win over Buffalo 10 days ago. It's not as if the RedHawks' schedule has been all that challenging to this point, so the fact that they're 3-6 SU is pretty ominous, especially since Ohio is the best team they will have faced since the Notre Dame game. 8* Ohio

8* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): For some time now, I've been saying that this "dream start" for the Vegas Golden Knights was bound to hit a downturn and last night we saw what may have been the start as they lost 6-3 to the Islanders. While you must tip your cap to an expansion franchise that starts its inaugural season w/ eight wins in its first nine games, note the VERY friendly scheduling they received. The team had played seven straight times in Sin City prior to last night and six of its first nine games overall were against non-playoff teams from a year ago. Two were against league-worst Arizona. Something else I made mention of in yday's analysis was that the Knights' extraordinary shooting percentage so far (15.6% L5 games!). That's bound to start coming down, plus the team's current goaltending situation is in major flux. As you can tell, I'm on the other side Tuesday. 

The other side here would be the Rangers, who are off to an ugly 3-7-2 start and in last place in the Metro. Their latest loss came Saturday, 5-4 at Montreal. Truly stunning is that the Blueshirts have played the majority of their games at home so far and yet have such a poor overall record. They're 3-4-2 at MSG, which is admittedly better than their 0-3 road record. They were badly outshot Saturday by the Habs (43-26), but I was at least impressed by the way they fought back from an early 3-0 deficit to tie the game at 4-4. One good thing is that they are 34-22 the L3 seasons following a game where they allowed 4+ goals. All three wins this year have come in this situation.

Let's be sure to remember that last season saw the Rangers finish w/ 102 points. I simply refuse to believe they've fallen as hard as it appears here in the early going. One of the big issues so far is the shockingly poor play of Henrik Lundqvist, whose save percentage (.900) and goals against average (3.11) this season are well below his career marks. But after being given the L2 games off, I expect a big bounce back performance from "Henrik The Great" between the pipes tonight. Meanwhile, Vegas is down to its FOURTH string goaltender here as Marc-Andre Fleury remains out (concussion) as is Malcolm Subban (lower-body injury). The team's third-string option, Oscar Dansk, was a recent AHL call-up, but he too suffered a lower-body injury last night. That leaves Maxime Legace as the team's only real option left and he did not look good when called into duty last night, giving up four goals on just 11 shots. Vegas has been a great story so far, but I have a feeling that reality is about to set in. 8* NY Rangers

10* Denver (8:30 ET): Was it only two weeks ago that we all considered Kansas City the best team in football? The Chiefs were unbeaten at 5-0, not only straight up, but against the spread as well. They'd won 27 of 31 regular season contests and with that Week 1 upset of the Patriots, were certainly deserving of all accolades. But two losses later and now they're looking to snap their first losing skid since a 1-5 SU start in 2015. Division rival Denver is another team whose last two weeks have not gone well. They went into their (early) bye week at 3-1, but suffered a shocking Sunday night loss to the Giants, then were shutout by the Chargers last week. So, it's two desperate teams here and with it being a division rivalry, I expect a close game. Thus, taking the points is a "no brainer." 

Kansas City's losses have come to Pittsburgh and Oakland. They were actually dominated far more than the final score (19-13) indicated against the Steelers as they were outgained 439-251 and had 11 fewer first downs. The Raiders game, on a Thursday night, saw the defense again shredded to the tune of 505 yards and 32 first downs. Now Denver's offense isn't exactly prolific. They've been held to 16 pts or fewer four straight weeks. But in that shocking loss to the Giants two weeks ago, the offense did gain 412 total yards. The problem is that they turned it over three times there and then did the same again last week. A -6 TO margin in a two-week span will leave most teams at 0-2. One thing that this Broncos offense should do is lean on running the ball. Kansas City's defense is only 28th at stopping the run.

Denver, believe it or not, has outgained all six of its opponents this season! That astounding fact has a lot to do w/ their league-leading defense, which is permitting an average of just 258.5 yards per game. That unit should certainly be able to keep them in this one. Note that while the Broncos are outgaining foes by roughly 80 YPG, the Chiefs have actually been outgained this season and are giving up nearly 400 YPG! Denver, like KC, has been an underdog in only one game all year. That was Week 2 vs. Dallas and they blew the Cowboys out 42-17. As an underdog, the Broncos are not just 9-4-1 ATS the L3 seasons, but also 9-5 straight up. They've also won three straight Monday night games as well. With this being the middle game of a three-game road trip, and Philadelphia on deck, you have to figure it will be the Broncos' best effort here. They are also 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS off a division loss. 10* Denver

10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): The T'wolves came into the season w/ a lot of hype and a projection befitting a top five team in the Western Conference. Personally, I thought those expectations were pretty lofty. Early returns haven't exactly been what management had hoped for, as the team currently sits at 3-3 SU w/ every win close (by three points or less). Two of those were at Oklahoma City's expense, including one on Friday at home. I should point out something about the team's previous two games, however, both of which were losses. Jimmy Butler missed both games and though he's new to this team, the absence was certainly felt. Against OKC, Butler played a team-high 38 minutes and scored 13 of his 25 pts in the 4Q. He was clearly the best player for the T'wolves, which is saying something considering Karl-Anthony Towns also went for 33 points and 19 rebounds.

Miami is just 2-3 SU despite playing all but one game at home. Their lone road game was the season opener, where I played against them, and they lost outright at Orlando. They quickly bounced back w/ a two-game win streak, but those wins happened to come at the expense of Indiana and Atlanta, two of the very worst teams the Eastern Conference has to offer. They've since lost to both the Spurs (by 17) and Celtics (by 6). Against the spread, the Heat are 0-4-1 ATS so far, a far cry from last year when they finished as one of the league's top teams at the betting window.

With Butler in the lineup, Minny is clearly a better team. The fact the team is 3-1 SU in the lineup definitely means something. Meanwhile, Miami is going to be w/out one of its top players Monday, that being Hassan Whiteside, who has been out since the opener. The Heat trailed by 11 going into the fourth quarter against Boston and were held below 100 pts the first time this season. Perhaps its reasonable to expect a bounce back on the offensive end here, but I see a team that lacks the firepower to compete w/ the T'wolves right now and Whiteside's absence will continue to loom large on the defensive end. Minnesota isn't even shooting the ball that well yet, and still is averaging 106.8 PPG. 10* Minnesota

10* Under Knights/Islanders (7:05 ET): The Vegas Golden Knights continue to be THE story in the league as this expansion outfit has opened 8-1 SU (16 points) while winning each of their last five games. They haven't always been dominant (three wins in OT), but they certainly were on Friday when they beat down Colorado 7-0, a performance which enabled me to cash a winning Over ticket. Now it should be pointed out that the Golden Knights have certainly benefited from a "friendly" early season schedule. Each of their last seven games were played in Sin City and six of their nine games overall have been against teams that did NOT make the playoffs a season ago. I do believe we'll start to see a "market correction" sooner rather than later, but I'm not entirely sure when that will begin.

The Islanders are the latest non-playoff team from LY on Vegas' schedule, but a big difference here is that this will be the Golden Knightss first game out East. The Knights did open the season w/ a pair of road games, but those were against Dallas and Arizona, the latter being the worst team in the league right now. Interesting to note from those two games is that both were 2-1 finals and the Knights were 0 for 11 on the power play. I don't think we'll be seeing Vegas quite as prolific offensively as they were in their last game when they scored a ridiculous seven times on just 21 shots! Here's something else to consider w/ Vegas' hot start. They have an extremely high shooting percentage these first nine games (13.1%) and that number jumps even higher during this five-game win streak (16.5%!). There is no doubt that opposing goalies are going to start playing them tougher, moving forward.

Isles' netminder Jaroslav Halak comes in w/ a solid enough .916 save percentage. Like Vegas, the Islanders come in off an outstanding offensive effort (beat Nashville 6-2 on Saturday) that is highly unlikely to be replicated. Their six goals came on just 23 shots. It was the fifth straight game to go Over for them as they've totaled 25 goals themselves during that streak. But maybe the most surprising thing from Vegas' hot start is that they rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed (2.1 per game). Their goaltending situation remains in flux due to injury, but they're off a shutout nonetheless and what I expect here is a lower-scoring game than usual (for both sides). Take the Under. 10* Under Knights/Islanders

10* Over Capitals/Flames (9:05 ET): This is a really tough spot for the Caps as they played last night in Edmonton (won 5-2) and it will be their third game in four nights out in Western Canada. They lost the first, 6-2 to Vancouver, so goals have certainly not been lacking on the current trip. In fact, the Over is now 5-2 their last seven games w/ them either scoring or allowing four goals in six of those affairs. Tonight though, they face a Calgary team that has dropped four of five. While the Flames currently rank 29th (3rd worst) in the league in goals per game (2.3), the Over is 2-0-1 this year when they're coming off a game where one or zero goals. As you can tell, I'm on the Over here as we should have another high-scoring game involving Washington. 

The Caps are just 5-5-1 through 11 games, disappointing considering where this team usually resides in the standings. They appeared to be headed for another loss last night as they fell behind the Oilers 2-0. But then they stormed back w/ five unanswered goals, three of them coming in the third period. As you might expect in a game involving the Capitals and Oilers, there were plenty of shots on goal, 78 to be exact. But I suspect that Braden Holtby may NOT be available tonight for the Caps after stopping 38 of 40 shots last night. That could be a problem as backup Philip Grabauer sports an .850 save percentage this year. Even if Holtby is put out back on the ice, his save percentage on the road is just .877.

Washington ranks a surprising 26th in goals allowed thus far, so this is a chance for Calgary to break out offensively. One area where both teams struggle is the penalty kill as the Flames rank 27th while the Caps are 28th! Therefore, don't be surprised to see a power play goal or two in this game. Especially from the Washington side as they are eighth in the league when on the man advantage at 22.9 percent. Mike Smith figures to get the start here for Calgary, between the pipes, but his save percentage here at home is only .891. The Flames' only other goaltender, Eddie Lack, sports a woeful .853 save percentage overall. This game has all the makings of a wild shootout, Sunday night in Alberta. 10* Over Capitals/Flames

8* Pittsburgh (8:25 ET): Those who follow me, know that road favorites simply are "not my thing." At least, usually. But I'll make a big exception here for a matchup where I believe the road chalk to be significantly better than the home dog and the line is basically insignifcant. Pittsburgh is a rather "quiet" 5-2 (SU) right now, but actually ranks #1 in DVOA over at FootballOutsiders, a ranking which carries a lot of weight (in my opinion). As for Detroit, this is a team whose record I haven't respected for the last two seasons. Last year's 9-7 SU finish was pretty phony based on them not beating a single playoff team along the way and needing a record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks to get there. I didn't think they had a chance to match LY's record this year, so at 3-3 SU currently, don't be surprised if they start losing more than they win the rest of the way. I'll lay the short number here.

Yes, the Lions are coming off a bye, but underdogs off a bye week tend to not perform as well as favorites. That's confirmed by a poor effort last week from Cincinnati, who faced (you guessed it!) the Steelers. Coming off a huge road win over Kansas City (handed Chiefs their 1st loss of the season), the Black & Gold beat down their division rival, winning 29-14 w/ a rather commanding 420-179 edge in total yardage. Having to constantly settle for field goals is what kept that game (and my Over bet!) more interesting than it should have been. But now they get to face a Lions team that gave up 52 pts in its last game, two weeks ago at New Orleans. To bring things "full circle" here, underdogs coming off a bye week are just 47% ATS dating back to '03. 

A reason for the Steelers' slow start offensively was that RB Le'Veon Bell was just getting back into "game shape" after holding out all preseason. But Bell has posted B2B monster games w/ 179 and 134 yards against the Chiefs and Bengals respectively. Conversely, the Lions have no run game as they average just 84 YPG over land, which ranks 26th. Pittsburgh's defense is also quietly playing very well as it is giving up only 16.6 PPG for the year, which is third fewest in the league. Additionally, they rank 2nd in total defense (yardage allowed). Keep in mind that the scoring average would be even lower were it not for TWO pick-six's returned against them in the Jacksonville game. Detroit's offense isn't averaging 300 YPG right now, an ominous sign, while Pittsburgh is outgaining its opponents by slightly more than 100 YPG, which is #1 in the entire league. 8* Pittsburgh

8* LA Dodgers (8:20 ET): What has been an outstanding World Series thus far is (potentially) about to get a whole lot better as we have the best pitcher from both sides set to face off in a critical Game 5. With the final two games (Game 7, if necessary) set to take place at Dodger Stadium, LA could take a HUGE step towards winning its first WS since 1988 w/ a win tonight. And they have just the pitcher to get them there, that of course being Clayton Kershaw, who is your likely NL Cy Young Award winner. Now, normally, in a rematch of two starters like this, I might side w/ the one who lost the last meeting. But as good as Houston's Dallas Keuchel has been at home, I'm not about to pass up Kershaw, particularly at this price. I've got the Dodgers going up 3-2.

Last night's win means the Dodgers still haven't dropped B2B games this postseason. They didn't break things open until the top of the ninth when they scored five runs to essentially put the game out of reach. But like Houston's late surge in Game 2, the Dodgers clearly were the better team in Game 4 as their pitchers combined for a two-hitter (both HR's). It's no secret now that the Astros' offense (which was ranked #1 in all key categories during the reg season) is in a major slump and that's a major problem when getting set to face Kershaw. Dating back to the start of the ALCS, Houston has scored two runs or fewer in 6 of its last 11 games. Kershaw held them to just one run on three hits (over 7 IP) w/ 11 K's (no walks) in Game 1, improving his impeccable TSR to 27-4 this season. The Dodgers have won the L6 times Kershaw has started (4-0 in playoffs) and he has a 1.99 ERA on the road this season.

Now Houston does have Keuchel going in an immediate revenge spot (lost to Kershaw in Game 1) and he's generally been pretty spectacular at home this year w/ a 2.03 ERA and 0.937 WHIP. But, his L2 starts have seen him allow a total of seven runs in 11 2/3 IP (13 hits). He also allowed 2 HR's in Game 1. I know that was in LA, but even here at home he's an underdog on the money line, something that was also the case in both of his last two starts. Kershaw is the better of the two pitchers and LA has the "momentum" (hate that word!) off the Game 4 victory. Houston will be desperate, but the Dodgers will be better. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Charlotte (6:05 ET): Are the Orlando Magic the best team in the Eastern Conference? Well, according to record and point differential they are, but it's obviously way too early to start drawing any real conclusions from that. Still, tip your cap to a franchise that has done nothing since Dwight Howard left town back in 2012. The Magic have opened 4-1 SU and are outscoring opponents by a shocking 10.8 point per game margin. That margin drastically improved w/ a somewhat shocking result Friday night, a 114-87 win over the Spurs (as 5.5-pt home dogs). They've also beaten Cleveland, by 21 point, also at home. But they've also lost a game at Brooklyn. To me, it's time to "sell high" on Magic stock as here they're facing a team I've proclaimed as one of the most likely to improve in 2017-18. 

Charlotte was an unlucky 36-46 SU last year. I say unlucky b/c they actually outscored their opponents over the course of the season, despite finishing 10 games below .500. The issue was that they were 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less and 0-6 SU in overtime games. It's interesting to note that in their 48-34 season two years ago, they went 5-0 SU in OT games. This year, largely due to multiple injuries, has gotten off to a disappointing start. Minus Nicolas Batum (out 6-8 wks), Cody Zeller, Michael Carter-Williams (also out indefinitely), Treveon Graham and Julyan Stone, the team lost Friday at home to Houston by a score of 109-93 (were 2.5-pt dogs). The Hornets that did play did not shoot well (37.5% overall) particularly in the second quarter when they missed 18 of 22 shots. Note, however, that it was still a four-point game entering the 4Q. 

Thankfully, it appears as if Zeller will return here. That's huge as the Hornets were a completely different (i.e. better) team w/ him in the lineup LY. He's missed the L4 games due to a bone bruise on his right knee. Prior to the loss Friday, the Hornets were 2-0 at home, winning both games by double digits. They are also 21-15 ATS coming off a DD loss the L3 seasons. Orlando was a stunning 57.1% from the floor against San Antonio, including 11 of 23 on three-point attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs shot just 33.7% overall and were 4 of 24 from beind the arc. There may not be a game the rest of the season where the Magic enjoy such a decided edge in shooting percentage. They are a virtual lock to decline tonight and that's a big reason while I'll lay a short number w/ the home team here. 10* Charlotte

10* Over Texans/Seahawks (4:05 ET): DeShaun Watson has stepped in and counteracted what I felt would be inevitable regression for Houston in 2017. Last year's Texans may have finished 9-7 (SU), but they were outscored by 49 points over the course of the regular season and had only one win by more than 7 points (which came in Week 1!). The quarterback position has always been the "weak link" for this franchise, even predating current HC Bill O'Brien's tenure here. So Watson's emergence has been a godsend for the team and fanbase alike. O'Brien, known for having a quick hook to begin with, mercifully pulled Tom Savage in the first game. Watson's first start resulted in an ugly 13-9 win over Cincinnati, but since then the offense has averaged a whopping 39.25 points over its L4 games.

Off a bye, Watson and the Texans face arguably their toughest test to date w/ a visit to Seattle. Now, I say that knowing full well that they've already traveled to New England and played the Patriots close, in a 36-33 loss (were 13-pt dogs). But the Patriots' defense, even though it's improved the L2 games, is nowhere near as stingy as that of the Seahawks. With the exception of one game (33-27 loss @ Tennessee), Seattle has allowed 18 pts or fewer in every other game. They were off a bye last week and despite a slow start, were easily able to dispatch of the woeful Giants, 24-7 as four-point road chalk. QB Russell Wilson was very good, completing 27 of 39 passes, three of them for touchdowns. He finished w/ 334 yards overall.

There was a early-week line move w/ this total as others seem to be thinking similar to me (that the total opened too low). Houston's defense is w/o both JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus now, so that's something they should be concerned about. It hasn't really hurt them quite yet, although in losses to New England and Kansas City, they did give up a total of 78 points. Their two most recent wins came against Cleveland (inept) and Tennessee (Marcus Mariota hurt), so you can probably just go ahead and toss those defensive performances right out the window. Consider they did allow Brady to throw for 378 yds w/ a 71% completion rate and KC was able to drive inside the 35-yard line 9 times in 10 tries against them. Both of those games came w/ Watt and Mercilus on the field! So Seattle should be able to move the ball here and I think Watson and Houston will be able to "keep up" relatively well, leading to a pretty easy Over. Seattle's defense has been pretty lucky so far in that they've faced some pretty offenses: San Francisco, Indianapolis and the Giants, to name a few. 10* Over Texans/Seahawks

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Needless to say, NO ONE expected these two teams to be sporting near-identical records entering this Week 8 matchup. Atlanta, who infamously blew a 28-3 lead in LY's Super Bowl, had aspirations of returning to that big game this year. As for the Jets, it was widely perceived that they were tanking in 2017 and would end up w/ the league's worst record. Surprise, surprise though. Both have the same number of wins (3) right now, though the Jets have played one more game. It's getting to be desperation time for the Falcons, who are in a tough division (NFC South) and can't afford to be dropping many more games if they want to even make the playoffs. Least of all this one, against a team that should not be able to compete w/ them offensively. I rarely play road favorites, but will make an exception here.

Now that Falcons offense, which led the league by a mile last year, has certainly fallen off in the first half of this season. Some of that has to do w/ the departure of OC Kyle Shanahan. But Shanahan taking his playbook to San Francisco can't solely explain Matt Ryan and company scoring all of seven points the last six quarters w/ that lone TD coming in garbage time last Sunday night vs. the Patriots. Being that they were embarrassed (again) on national TV last week, my guess is that Falcons' stock has reached its nadir & it's now time to "buy low." I should also mention that their previous two losses (also to AFC East teams), were both highly misleading. They outgained Miami 339-289, but inexplicably blew a 17-0 halftime lead at home. The week before, also at home, they outgained Buffalo 389-281. However, they were undone by a -3 turnover margin, most notably a fumble return for a touchdown. 

So while Atlanta is 3-3, they are still outgaining foes by 47.3 YPG and averaging a healthy 6.4 yards per play. To put that in proper perspective, the 3-4 Jets are -45.9 YPG. They are also off B2B crushing defeats against AFC East (their division) foes. First, they left New England feeling ripped off after a bad call denied them a chance to take New England to overtime (lost 24-17). Then last week, they blew a 2 TD lead at Miami, losing in overtime. Like we saw w/ San Francisco last week, it's difficult for a bad team to consistently "get off the mat" after suffering a series of close losses. I don't see the Jets winning here and staying within the number for a third straight time while losing seems unlikely as well. If you're looking for a specific area where the Falcons can exploit the Jets, it could be running the ball as this offense is still averaging a healthy 4.9 yards per carry. They just need to run it more often (only 19 carries LW due to being behind) in order to be more effective and set up the passing game. 8* Atlanta

8* Cleveland (9:30 AM ET): We all know the Browns are bad (just 1 win in the L2 seasons), but what's particularly jaw-dropping in their run of futility under HC Hue Jackson is that they've covered the Vegas number only five times in 23 games! That includes last week, where they took the Tennessee Titans to overtime, but (of course) lost 12-9 as 5.5-point home underdogs. Meanwhile, Minnesota is starting to emerge as one of the league's most pleasant surprises. They've lost their starting QB, RB and WR1, yet still have somehow found a way to go 5-2 SU and take the lead in the NFC North. As I said last week, they stand to be the biggest beneficiary of the Aaron Rodgers injury (out for year?) in Green Bay. But something else I said last week was that I can't believe the respect the Vikings are now getting in light of all their injuries. They got over me last week (playing at home against Baltimore), but I don't like them laying this many points away from home, even if it is London and against the Browns. Hold your nose and take the points.

Now, I'm fully aware that none of the three previous London games have been close this year. The favorite has delivered a lopsided shutout in each of the last two (Rams 33-0 last week) while Jacksonville was a 44-7 winner over Baltimore, as a small dog, in the other. Clearly, that precdent isn't good for Cleveland, but it is worth noting that despite an 0-7 SU record, the Browns have outgained their opposition this year! Their defense ranks in the Top 10 in yards allowed (304.7) and can keep them in games, especially when facing an offense as depleted as Minnesota's is right now. The Vikings come in averaging only 20.9 PPG for the year and that number drops to 14.5 away from home.

Prior to last week's win and cover over Baltimore (24-16, -5), Vikings QB Case Keenum was 1-7 ATS all-time as a favorite w/ SIX outright losses, including one at home to Detroit earlier this year. With Keenum under center, RB Dalvin Cook out for the year and WR Stefon Diggs still battling a groin injury, I just can't endorse this team in this price range. Now Cleveland is admittedly a mess and will be going back to rookie QB DeShone Kizer here as HC Jackson grows more and more desperate by the week. Also, Kizer won't have Joe Thomas protecting him anymore as Thomas is done for the year w/ a triceps injury. (Thomas had NEVER missed a snap in his career before last week!). That all being said, the Vikings aren't going to be favored by more in any game this season, not even at home, and hadn't even been asked to lay more than a field goal this year prior to last week. 8* Cleveland

8* Under San Diego State/Hawaii (11:15 ET): How the mighty have fallen in the Mountain West. Two weeks ago, San Diego State was unbeaten w/ a win over Stanford to its credit. That win over the Cardinal can't ever be erased from their resume, but the "0" that once occupied the loss column certainly has, as the Aztecs come in as losers of two straight. First they lost to Boise State, 31-14, in large part to giving up two non-offensive TDs early in the game. Then, clearly still feeling the effects of the hangover, they got boatraced last week by Fresno State, 27-3. I'm not about to lay points on the road w/ this bunch, at least right now, but what I do feel comfortable in projecting is a low-scoring game out on the Island this week, late night vs. Hawaii. Take the Under.

Hawaii is coming off a bye. They sure needed it, or at least their backers did, following five consecutive ATS defeats. Four of those were also straight up losses, but they did win the last game, 37-26 over downtrodden San Jose State. All three of the Warriors wins this year have come against either a FCS foe (Western Carolina) or a bottom 20 team in FBS. The other four games, they were held to 23 pts or fewer. I find it unlikely that they'll score even that many here against a San Diego State defense that has been very good for most of this season. The Aztecs are allowing only 21.7 PPG for the year and that number would be even lower if not for the multiple non-offensive TD's scored by Boise State two weeks ago. I'm not sure how to explain what happened LW vs. Fresno State, other than to say the offense surely didn't do its part.

With a total of just 17 pts scored the last two weeks, both of those games at home, SDSU is not exactly a prime candidate to lay points with right now, especially on the road. Hawaii does struggle to stop the run, but SDSU's offensive line is not at 100% right now, so they may not be able to take full advantage. The Under has hit in each of San Diego State's last three games, all on totals lower than this one. Last year, Hawaii did not score at all on the Aztecs' defense in an ugly 55-0 loss. It was their fifth straight year getting held to 21 points or fewer by them. 8* Under San Diego State/Hawaii

10* LA Dodgers (8:15 ET): Houston looks to take a commanding 3-1 World Series lead on Saturday night, but after "zigging" last night (cashed *10* GOW on the Astros), I'll "zag" here and take the Dodgers. Granted, in my Game 3 analysis, I spoke at length at how the "rules of engagement" have now changed in this series w/ it moving to Minute Maid Park. The DH is now in play, plus the Dodgers aren't nearly as dominant on the road as they are at Chavez Ravine where they give up fewer runs per game than any other home team in baseball. Houston has yet to lose at home this postseason, but the Dodgers have also yet to drop B2B games. So something will have to give here in Game 4 and I believe it's the former. Take the Dodgers to even this series up at two games apiece.

Houston had the #1 offense in baseball during the regular season, whether you're talking runs scored, team batting average, OBP or slugging. But a curious thing took place when you split their home and road numbers and that's they were a lot more prolific at the plate away from Minute Maid Park. They did get to Yu Darvish last night, but overall have not exactly been hitting the cover off the baseball dating back to the ALCS. The Dodgers will send lefty Alex Wood to the hill Sat night and he's been especially good on the road this year w/ a 7-2 record in 14 starts, a 2.44 ERA and 0.975 WHIP. Wood's only postseason start thus far was the team's lone pre-World Series loss, Game 4 against the Cubs in the NLCS. He did give up three homers there, which is a concern, but that was a game where the wind was blowing out at Wrigley. 

Houston counters w/ Charlie Morton, who had one successful and one not-so-successful outing opposite CC Sabathia and the Yankees in the ALCS. The first time around, he gave up seven runs in only 3 2/3 IP. The second time, which was Game 7, he came up big w/ five shutout innings of two-hit ball. But Morton has yet to go more than five innings in any of his three postseason starts thus far. With the bullpen situation the way it is for both teams (very high usage rates!), I give a big edge in starting pitching here to the Dodgers w/ Wood, who has only had to start one time this postseason as opposed to the three times for Morton. Also, Wood led all of MLB in win percentage during the regular season, going 16-3. With Morton, only 10 of his 28 starts this year have been quality ones, which is a pretty low percentage when you think about it. At 1 for 12 w/ RISP the L2 games, I have to think the Dodgers are due for some more timely hitting moving forward. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Houston (8:05 ET): I'm a little bit surprised that the Rockets are off a win here as I though last night's matchup (in Charlotte) would be conducive to defeat. But they won going away, 109-93 as three-point favorites to improve to 5-1 SU on the young season. They are w/o Chris Paul for an indefinite period of time, but remember they didn't have him last year and won 55 games. They've pulled out two come from behind victories in the early going, the first in the season opener at Golden State and then earlier this week at Philly. Early in the season, I don't think back to backs matter as much and in fact, the Rockets look to be underrated in this spot against a Memphis team that just struggled in a home and home w/ lowly Dallas (went 0-2 ATS). I think the wrong team is favored here.

The Rockets shot an ungodly 22 of 57 from three-point range in last night's win w/ James Harden going for a triple double as well (27-11-10). They beat a Charlotte team that I have a ton of respect for, even though the Hornets are dealing with multiple unfortunate injuries right now. Now will the Rockets be as prolific from behind the arc this evening? Probably not, but I'm envisioning they won't have to be. Memphis is notoriously one of the weaker three-point shooting teams in the league, even as they move towards the kind of faster pace that has engulfed the modern NBA. In two wins over the Grizzlies last year, the Rockets "doubled up" on points from behind the three-point line, outscoring them 102-51 in that department, Defensively, Houston was strong last night as well, holding Charlotte to 31.3% shooting in the first half, including 4 for 22 from the floor in quarter number two. 

Memphis, like Houston, has a win over Golden State. But they also just lost at Dallas and then failed to cover against the Mavs in the second game of a home and home Thursday (I had the Mavs plus the points Thurs). They've now failed to break 100 pts in three consecutive games (trouble when playing Houston). This is also a rematch from a 98-90 Memphis' win in Houston from earlier in the week. I cashed Memphis there, but it's important to realize they ended the game on a 20-2 run (won 98-90) after trailing by as many as 10 in the fourth quarter. They were also eight-point underdogs in the contest, so needless to say there's been a dramatic swing in price for the rematch, one that can not be simply explained away by change in venue. The Rockets are the better team here and getting points, I'm on them. 8* Houston

8* Washington (3:30 ET): This is most definitely a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for UCLA as #12 Washington is not only coming off its bye, but also an embarrassing loss (to Arizona State) the week prior. Coming into the season, I pegged the Bruins as one of the most likely improved teams in the entire country, but it's become pretty clear to me that HC Jim Mora already has "one foot out the door" in Westwood as does QB Josh Rosen, who would be the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft if he elected to come out. As for Washington, they can no longer endure any more "slip ups" after the disaster that happened at Arizona State two weeks ago. The Huskies lost that game, 13-7, not even coming close to scoring enough points to cover the 17.5-pt spread. This is an offense averaging 37.9 PPG for the year and they are set to go up against a UCLA defense which is allowing nearly 500 yards per game! Lay the points. 

UCLA hasn't been good on the road either and quite frankly that's putting things mildly. They're 0-3 SU and ATS away from the Rose Bowl and in those losses to Memphis, Stanford and Arizona, they've given up an average of 51 points per game. Getting back to the defensive woes, that unit has now surrendered 44 or more points four times. Remember that they are one miracle comeback (against Texas A&M) away from being 2-5 SU right now. The Bruins are off a win here, but it came against an Oregon team w/ a backup QB that just can't do much offensively right now. It's not like the Bruins' road woes are anything new either; dating back to last season, they've dropped seven consecutive road games, the last five all coming by double digits. Their last Pac 12 road win came in 2015. 

Washington only managing seven points against Arizona State was a real head-scratcher that I can't begin to figure out. All I can say is that Tempe is a place no Huskies team has won since 1999, so it must be something in the air there. For the reasons laid out above, I do not see them having much trouble moving the ball or putting it in the end zone here. On the defensive side of the ball, HC Chris Peterson has some injuries to deal with, but the Huskies are allowing an average of only 10.6 PPG this year and still only gave up 13 in the loss to Arizona State despite losing CB Jordan Miller in the game. Yes, Rosen will be the best QB they face all year, but I think this stop unit will be up to the task, especially with them likely "playing from ahead" for the duration of the contest. UCLA has won just one of its last nine games as an underdog and is 1-7 ATS when coming off a Pac 12 win the L3 seasons. 8* Washington

10* Ohio State (3:30 ET): While this is technically a "revenge game" for the Buckeyes, who lost 24-21 (as 19-point favorites!) in State College last year, one could make the argument that it is the Nittany Lions that come into this year's meeting w/ more of a legitimate gripe as they were the one left out of LY's playoff while Ohio State made it (despite the H2H result) only to get promptly smashed by eventual Nat'l Champ Clemson. So, to me, the revenge factor may be overstated here. However, situationally, is where I find Ohio State to have a the big edge in this Big 10 showdown. They were off last week while Penn State was busy winning a primetime showdown w/ Michigan. That win over Michigan came a lot easier than most (myself included) expected, which I feel has caused a bit of an overreaction by the marketplace. Yes, Penn State is the unbeaten team here, but I still actually have OSU rated higher in my own personal power rankings. I was hoping to get the Buckeyes laying less than a touchdown at the Horseshoe on Saturday and the oddsmakers have granted my wish!

Ohio State HC Urban Meyer is an incredible 20-1 SU in his coaching career off a bye w/ five of those victories coming against ranked foes. Keep in mind that it was Penn State off a bye last week against Michigan, so the bye week (especially this time of year) definitely can play a huge role. And yes, Meyer is also 24-10-1 ATS in his career in revenge spots including 10-0 straight up his L10 w/ the average margin of victory coming by an impressive 13 points per game. Let us not forget either that OSU led Penn State last year 12-0, but lost on a blocked FG return for touchdown. The Nittany Lions weren't even ranked at the time! The win has jumpstarted an incredible run where they've lost only one time (Rose Bowl vs. USC) and they're an utterly insane 16-1 ATS their last 17 games. That lone non-cover was the Iowa game earlier this year where they needed a last second TD, but even then they had a 579-273 edge in total yards. But isn't a 16-1 ATS run getting close to a "tipping point" where we'll start to see James Franklin's team start to give some back? I think so.

Earlier I mentioned that I still have OSU rated higher in my own power rankings, so I'm not surprised by the line here - at all - and as I alluded to, it should probably be north of a touchdown. Most will disagree w/ me, which is where the (rare) value on the Buckeyes comes into play. Since getting beaten by Oklahoma in the second game of the season, OSU has rolled to five consecutive wins by an average of 42 points per game. QB JT Barrett has certainly gotten back on track w/ a 21-1 TD-INT ratio. He has guided the Buckeyes' offense to four straight games of 54+ points and 500+ total yards. OSU also has a defense to match Penn State's and of course the homefield advantage to boot. 10* Ohio State

8* San Jose (1:05 ET): Hopefully the Sharks players have adjusted their "body clocks" as it's an early start time for them Saturday (10 AM Pacific!). Fortunately though, the opposition will be Buffalo, a team that has struggled mightily in the early part of the season. The Sabres, coming off a 5-1 loss at Columbus on Wednesday, are 3-6-2 so far and rank in the bottom six in both goals scored (27th) and against (26th). They've have had this strange dominance over the Sharks through the years (including 12-2 mark here at home!), but I'll call for that to end here as San Jose (only 8 points so far) is a team you should expect to start playing better moving forward.

The Sharks are also in off a loss, 2-1 at Boston, Thursday night. They did outshoot the Bruins (37-33), but were just 1 for 6 on the power play. That drops them to an unfortunate 1 for their last 16 w/ the man advantage. I have to think that number is going to start to improve. Even worse is that they allowed a short-handed goal against the Bruins, which was the difference in the game. That shouldn't happen again here. The other part of special teams, penalty killing, has been no issue for the Sharks as they've killed off 15 straight and rank 4th overall in the league at 89.5%. Martin Jones is a fine goaltender that comes in w/ a .968 save percentage in three road starts thus far. This is the finale of a five-game Eastern trip for San Jose after splitting the first four games. They are a perfect 2-0 this season following a game where they scored 1 goal or less (and 24-15 in that role the L3 seasons). 

Buffalo is giving up plenty of shots and plenty of goals so far. They allowed 38 shots in the loss to Columbus Wednesday, a game in which they fell behind 4-0 after two periods. Goaltending has not been a strong suit here w/ Chad Johnson posting an .879 save percentage overall. Robin Lehner is the more likely starter for tonight, but he's only at .913. While San Jose ranks in the top 10 overall in both areas of special teams, the Sabres are 26th on the power play and 15th in penalty killing. They've also given up a league-high six shorthanded goals this season. Another bad sign is that the team hasn't gotten a single goal from a defensemen yet. Here at home, they are averaging only 1.7 goals per game. 8* San Jose

8* North Carolina (12:00 ET): Let's just go-ahead and restart "The U is back!" narrative as the 'Canes have emerged as a "darkhorse" playoff contender simply by virtue of still being unbeaten in late October. But as you know, not all unbeatens are created equal and in this case, Miami is simply not at the level of an Alabama or Penn State, or even several one-loss teams (such as Ohio State or Clemson) for that matter. But tip your cap to the job Mark Richt is doing down in Coral Gables as there's a decent chance his Hurricanes will finish the regular season unbeaten thanks to avoiding Clemson, Louisville and NC State entirely, while drawing both Va Tech and Notre Dame at home. This week's game likely will NOT threaten their unblemished won-loss record, but it is a tricky spot as it comes right before those B2B home dates w/ Va Tech and Notre Dame. Can we say look ahead?

While Miami is exceeding expectations in year two under Richt, North Carolina has clearly fallen off a cliff for Larry Fedora in 2017. After winning 11 and 8 games respectively the last two seasons, the Tar Heels returned very little of the offense that drove last year's team (most notable loss was QB Mitchell Trubisky) and the result has been a rather ugly 1-7 SU and ATS start w/ the lone win and cover coming at Old Dominion's expense. The nadir of the season may have been last week as they ran into a rested Va Tech team in Blacksburg and got beat 59-7. But that creates some real value on the Tar Heels, who are back home, this week. Injuries are another reason UNC has struggled this year. But w/ little left to play for, I assume they'll treat this Homecoming affair like a bowl game and not roll over for their unbeaten visitor. 

Miami's unbeaten record is not w/o some very close calls, in fact, their previous three wins have been by a total of 13 points! Last week, they outlasted Syracuse 27-19 (were -18) down in Hard Rock Stadium where they obviously benefited from four Orange turnovers. The week prior was a 25-24 win over Georgia Tech on a last second FG, a game they trailed almost the whole way. Preceding that was another last second win, against Florida State. Following so many close calls and with two much bigger games on deck, it will be easy for "The U" to overlook this game and that could be mean trouble given that the visiting team is on a 5-12 SU run in the rivalry. Last year though, UNC won on the road, 20-13 as a six-point dog. The year before that, right here in Chapel Hill, the Hurricanes lost 59-21. I look for UNC to stay within a generous number. 8* North Carolina

10* Houston (8:20 ET): The Astros "stole one" in Game 2, rallying back to win 7-6. For me, it was a crushing beat on the Under (O/U line was 7.5) as the game was 3-1 entering the eighth inning. But Houston could certainly "care less" about that considering they've now evened up the series at a game apiece and the scene now shifts back to Minute Maid Park where the "rules of engagement" change dramatically. Sure, the Astros' offensive production actually DROPS here at home. But they will regain use of the DH here, something that was absent for the first two games. Also, perhaps they "deserved" to win Wednesday as they drastically outhit the Dodgers, 14-5. LA was nowhere near as strong on the road (47-34) as they were at home (57-24) in the regular season and has only had to play three road games thus far in the playoffs, all of them coming when they held a commanding lead in the series. Houston is a perfect 7-0 at home so far this postseason! I'm on them in Game 3.

The Astros will turn to Lance McCullers, Jr tonight. McCullers was a solid wager early in the season as he started out w/ a 12-2 TSR (through June 24th), but things have certainly "gone South" ever since as he hasn't won another decision (!) in 10 starts (1-9 TSR). Granted, injuries have played a part in that too as he missed all of August due to "arm fatigue." However, there are certainly signs that he's at least close to regaining that early season form. In two ALCS appearances, McCullers allowed only one run in 10 IP. That was one start and one relief appearance and while the team lost the former, it really wasn't his fault. 

There might be a little concern w/ this Dodgers offense right now as they only had five hits in Game 2, but were fortunate that four of them were home runs. It also seems like good fortune that the team is averaging 5.3 runs per game over its last seven contests given the team batting average is .233 during that time. Granted, they have to be feeling comfortable w/ Yu Darvish set to take the mound for Game 3 as he's now allowed 1 or 0 ER in five consecutive starts, which dates back to the regular season. The fact that the run dates back to the regular season is key because three of those starts came against the Giants, Phillies and Padres, who are quite possibly the three worst offensive teams in all of baseball. Then there is the matter of Houston being familiar w/ him due to his time spent w/ Texas in the AL West. Darvish is just 5-5 all-time vs. the Astros (14 starts) w/ a 3.44 ERA. Conversely, the Dodgers have never seen McCullers. 10* Houston

10* Under Tulane/Memphis (8:00 ET): "It was the best of times/It was the worst of times" wrote Charles Dickens back in 1859. But for 2017 Memphis football, it was not a "Tale of Two Cities," but rather a "Tale of Two Halves" last week in Houston. Trailing 17-0 at halftime, the (now) 24th ranked Tigers exploded after the break, scoring touchdowns on six consecutive drives en route to a rather stunning 42-38 road win. That put them in the driver's seat in the AAC West at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in league play. They'll be favored in all remaining regular season affairs and if they take care of business, that means a likely date w/ either UCF or USF in the Conference Championship Game where a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl Game will almost certainly be on the line.

Tulane provides Memphis' opposition this Friday night at the Liberty Bowl and they'll be looking to pick up the pieces following B2B losses for the second time this year. The Green Wave are 3-4 SU overall for 2nd year HC Willie Fritz, who has installed the option offense here. Three of Tulane's four losses came against opponents that have spent time in the Top 25 this year: Navy, Oklahoma and USF, the latter two obviously still residing there. So this will be no "walk in the park" for favored Memphis, despite what the line may say. That said, while last week saw the Green Wave cover, it only after falling behind USF 34-7 in the second half. Scoring the game's final three touchdowns made the final score a lot closer than it ought to have been and that came on the heels of the team's lone "ugly" loss this year, 23-10 at FIU, two weeks ago. 

This will be Tulane's fourth road game of the season and they have yet to break 21 points in any of the previous ones. In fact, the team's scoring drops nearly in half (15.0 PPG on the road vs. 28.4 PPG overall) and total yardage per game drops down to 264 (compared to 385.3 YPG overall). Memphis doesn't exactly have the most stout defense in the AAC, but they did face Navy less than two weeks ago, which at least familiarizes them w/ the triple option. The Memphis offense has obviously put up some big numbers thus far, but just as they won't be as bad as they were in the 1H vs. Houston last week, they also won't be as efficient as they were in the 2H. Six of the past seven meetings between these teams have stayed Under, none of them seeing more than 60 total pts scored. This will also be the highest O/U line for any of those meetings. It's also - pretty easily - the highest O/U line for any Tulane game this season. The Green Wave have not topped 14 pts against the Tigers in any of the last three years. 10* Under Tulane/Memphis

10* New York (7:05 ET): The sorry Knicks are only winless team left in the league as they've lost their first three games by an average of 15.3 points per game. They're dead last in scoring (93.3 PPG) and speculation has already begun that HC Jeff Hornacek might be fired if they lose this game. So, needless to say, there's a little bit of motivation here. Brooklyn will be welcomed into MSG tonight, fresh off a stunning upset of Cleveland Wednesday night. That marked the Nets' fourth consecutive cover, a streak the likes of which we rarely saw in last season's moribund 20-62 (SU) campaign. In fact, there were only two times all of last year that the Nets covered four consecutive times. Not once did they cover five in a row. So, now seems like a good time to fade them and coincidentally, at the same time, it's a great spot to "buy low" on the Knicks. 

These area rivals have split the eight H2H meetings the L2 seasons, including a 2-2 mark in 2016-17. The Knicks won the first two last year with the Nets then squaring things away w/ a pair of wins in March. Note that for LY's first meeting, the Nets came in riding a 3-game ATS win streak, were off an upset win (vs. Minnesota) and promptly lost by 14 here at the Garden. It's certainly a bit of a surprise to see them w/ more wins than losses currently, given they lost PG Jeremy Lin on Opening Night. This is a better team compared to LY's version (how could it not be?), but I assure you that the "L's" will begin to pile up. They are just 4-10 ATS the previous two seasons when facing a team averaging less than 98 PPG. 

The Knicks are still trying to figure things out in this post-Carmelo Anthony era. At least, there's no debate now as to whom their best player is, as Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 25.3 PPG, which is second most in the league! I expect the Knicks' offense to get going tonight as the Nets are not a good defensive team. Despite the surprising 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS start, Brooklyn has allowed at least 107 pts in all five game so far. The Knicks did manage to score exactly 107 in their only home game thus far and I'm not going to put a ton of stock into the two 21-pt road losses seeing as they came against Boston and OKC, who both project as Top 10 teams this year. Brooklyn remains a bottom 10 team and staring at an 0-4 start that would likely get their coach canned, I believe the Knicks come up big here. 10* New York

10* Over Avalanche/Knights (6:05 ET): Vegas has stunned just about everyone in the hockey community w/ a 7-1 start (won 4 straight) that has them right below the Kings in the Pacific Division. You have to remember that this expansion team appeared to not even be trying for success with its first year moves. Another early season surprise is Colorado, who has a winning record after - objectively speaking - being the worst team in the entire league last season. So what was once projected as a matchup of the two worst teams in the league is no longer that Friday night in the desert. I hesitate to endorse either side at this point, so we'll look at the total as I believe the Over is a solid play here.

Vegas has been winning thanks in large part to one of the league's better overall shooting percentages at 11.3%. That means opposing goalies are posting a .887 save percentage against them, which is obviously very bad. At home, the Knights' shooting percentage jumps even further (to 13.8%) and as a result, they're averaging a healthy 3.8 goals per game here. None of this is probably sustainable, but we'll ride it until it begins to subside. But perhaps even more crucial to the team's stunning start is the fact they rank 3rd in goals allowed thus far. That ranking will be even more difficult to maintain than the shooting percentage, especially in the short-term, due to the goaltending situation. Marc-Andre Fleury is still in the concussion protocol. Malcom Subban had been filling in nicely, but he sustained a lower-body injury and is out too. That leaves AHL call-up Oscar Dansk to carry the load. I realize Dansk turned in a stunning performance Tuesday vs. Chicago (39 saves), but do we really think that will continue? I don't. 

While Vegas is shooting to match the longest win streak EVER by an expansion team (5 games) tonight, Colorado is already at more than 20% of last year's point total (48), which was the lowest ever by a team in the salary cap era. That said, they'd already started to show signs of regression w/ a three-game losing skid, before beating Dallas 5-3 on Tuesday. They've allowed at least three goals in four consecutive games. Semyon Varlamov is hardly reliable between the pipes, so I don't see him slowing down the Vegas offensive attack here. The Knights have scored at least three goals in six consecutive contests. At the same time, the Avs have put plenty of shots on goal their last two games (74), so expect a wide-open, high-scoring affair this evening (or afternoon local time). 10* Over Avalanche/Knights

8* Stanford (9:00 ET): Following disappointing B2B losses to USC and San Diego State, Stanford was just 1-2 SU on the season and in danger of becoming irrelevant. But this remains a Top 20 team in the country, at least in my opinion, and we've started to see what they are capable of w/ a four-game win streak here in Pac 12 play. Two Saturdays ago, the Cardinal took full advantage of Oregon being depleted and won in a 49-7 rout. Now they'll face the Ducks' "Civil War" rival, who is still winless against FBS competition this year and already made a coaching change. That would be Oregon State, the perennial dreg of the conference who has lost seven straight times to Stanford. I'm usually not one to lay a lot of points on the conference road, but I'll make an exception here. 

Over the course of its four-game win streak, Stanford has outscored its opponents (all of whom are stronger than Oregon State) by an average of nearly 20 PPG. Now that number is obviously skewed by what they did against Oregon, but note the only game during the win streak that was close was the one at Utah, who was rested when the Cardinal were not. Considering Oregon State is already allowing over 200 YPG on the ground this season (and given up 18 rushing TDs) and Stanford has the nation's leading rusher (Bryce Love), this looks to be a mismatch of epic proportions. Now I'm well aware Love is listed as a game-time decision here, but the notion of him and his 10.3 YPC average going against this Beavers' defense is too enticing too pass up. He already has NINE runs of 50+ yards this season and got to rest in the 2H vs. Oregon due to the lopsided nature of the contest. QB Keller Chryst also had his best game since the opener, completing 15 of 21 pass attempts, three of them for touchdowns. 

Love or not, another reason to like Stanford here is their defense facing an OSU offense that averages almost 50 fewer YPG rushing than Love does by his lonesome! Oregon State did play inspired in its last game, a 36-33 loss to Colorado (as 9.5-pt underdogs) here in Corvallis. But that came right after the surprising resignation of HC Gary Andersen. While interim HC Corey Hall has now had more than a full week to implement his own gameplan, he simply doesn't have a whole lot to work with here. The loss to Colorado marked the first time since beating FCS Portland State that the Beavers finished within 28 points of the opposition. They opened the year 0-5 ATS and are being outscored by 22.5 PPG. Whether it's Love's questionable status or something else, we're getting about nearly a full TD of value with this line on the Cardinal, at least according to my own power rankings. 8* Stanford

8* Over Dolphins/Ravens (8:25 ET): I didn't think Miami was anywhere near as good as its 10-6 (SU) showed last season, considering they were actually outscored by 17 points. Nor do I "buy into" this year's 4-2 SU start given they are -20 in point differential! This is a team "due" to regress in a major way and quite frankly, I don't see them winning many more games the rest of the way here in 2017. This all probably leads you to believe that I'll be fading the 'Fins in this Thursday night matchup at Baltimore. But I'm a little "gun-shy" in wanting to lay points here w/ the Ravens, who have their own set of struggles. I realize that neither of these two offenses are exactly setting the world on fire right now, but it's a REALLY low total for tonight, one of the lowest I've tracked for a TNF affair in several seasons, in fact. Therefore, I'm on the Over. 

The big story here for Miami is at the QB position where Jay Cutler has cracked ribs and thus won't play. Enter career backup Matt Moore, who actually owns a lifetime 20-7 ATS record as a starter. That's another reason I didn't want to lay even a short number here and in my opinion, Moore is not much of a downgrade from Cutler, if he is even a downgrade at all. He led the comeback last week against the Jets (31-28 win) and as we saw there, he is better than Cutler at getting the ball downfield. Truthfully, when Ryan Tannehill got hurt over the summer, I thought Miami was best sticking w/ Moore and not wasting its money on coaxing Cutler out of retirement. Expect the Dolphins to run the ball plenty in this matchup w/ Jay Ajayi and for them to be successful in doing so. Baltimore's once-heralded defense is currently last in the league at stopping the run, giving up an average of 145.3 yards per game. They've allowed 166 or more four of the past five weeks, including 169 last week to a Minnesota team that was w/o its starting RB. 

The Ravens are also dealing with injuries on offense, most notably at the WR position. However, they've still managed to go Over in three straight games (4-1 L5) thanks to low O/U lines such as this one. If the current number holds, and I suspect it will, this will be the fifth time already this year that an O/U line has closed at below 40 pts for them. So far, the Over is 3-1 in such contests. Having scored only one offensive TD in the last 10 quarters, I suspect we'll see some sort of breakthrough from Joe Flacco and the Ravens tonight. They also have an outstanding kicker in Justin Turner. Looking at the number from Miami's perspective, it is the lowest of the season to date, a good sign for a team that hadn't gone Over until last week! Moore threw two TD passes in the final 12 mins of regulation and his 188 yds passing for the game easily eclipsed Cutler's numbers. 8* Over Dolphins/Ravens

10* Dallas (8:05 ET): Suffice to say, the "glory days" are officially over for Mark Cuban's Mavs. I would think that if Dirk Nowitziki and the rest of the current roster walked into the "Shark Tank" studio tomorrow, Cuban would tell them "I'm out." The team got off to a rather ugly 0-4 SU and ATS start to the season, but last night they finally did crack into the win column w/ a 103-94 upset of Memphis (were 3-pt underdogs) at home. Now comes the second game of the home and home w/ the division rival Grizzlies and I'm going to call for the Mavs to cash - as underdogs - again. Obviously, with tonight's game being in Memphis, the oddsmakers are going to be more generous. That's good, because the Grizzlies are not a team I typically like to lay points with, especially this many.

Memphis' start to the season was just the opposite of Dallas' as they opened 3-0 SU and ATS. I took them Monday in what turned out to be an upset of Houston on the road (no Chris Paul for the Rockets remember). It is worth nothing though that the Grizz trailed by as many as 10 in the fourth quarter of that game, before storming back to end the game on a 20-2 run! Yes, you have to tip your cap to David Fizdale's team for beating both Golden State and Houston thus far, but both wins came in the underdog role. Some trends that go against Memphis here are that they are 4-17 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive unders and 14-28 ATS off a division game. 

Last night, it was Dennis Smith Jr leading the way w/ 19 points and five assists for the Mavs in the 103-94 upset. Smith's team never trailed after taking a commanding 32-18 lead after the first quarter. Dallas is now 6-3 SU/ATS the L9 head to head meetings vs. Memphis and will be going for their third straight win and cover tonight. A major plus will be having Chandler Parsons back in the lineup after he was given last night off due to still not being medically cleared to play both games of a back to back. Dallas didn't have nearly the same kind of results against Golden State and Houston that Memphis did, but their other two losses both came by six points or fewer. This is some good early season value on a dog playing the second game of a home and home. 10* Dallas

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Typically, I will place more weight on a team's scoring differential than its actual won-loss record as I believe the former metric to be a far better predictor of future results than the latter. (This goes for any sport) But in the case of the Penguins, I'll make an exception. Yes. they've been outscored by eight goals this season, but that's owed to one singular loss, a stunning 10-1 loss at Chicago which is still skewing things. Needless to say, the Pens won't suffer another loss that bad all season and since then, they've managed to go 6-2, including a win over Edmonton on Tuesday. Tonight, they welcome in another Canadian opponent, that being Winnipeg, who will be remarkably rested here having not played a game since 10.20. But rest alone won't be enough to help the Jets overcome some pretty severe disadvantages in this contest.

Pittsburgh actually has two bad losses this year, as they were beaten 7-1 by Tampa Bay on Saturday. But take that and the Chicago game away, and you're left w/ a 6-1-1 team that's outscored opponents by seven goals. As they did from the Chicago loss, the Pens responded well after being beaten by Tampa Bay, outlasting Edmonton in overtime Tuesday. They outshot the Oilers 44-30 in the contest, the second time in three games they had at least that many shots. They are top five in the league currently in shots per game and beating Edmonton in low-scoring fashion was impressive given that the Oilers match up relatively well w/ them. The same cannot be said for Winnipeg though; the Jets are one of the slower paced teams in the league and rank 29th in shots per game at 29.3. Expect the Pens' speed to be a huge advantage in this contest. 

Let the rest vs. rust debate commence here as it pertains to Winnipeg. "I personally don't like having this many days between games," defenseman Tyler Myers told the team's website. "When you have this much time off, you want to keep that pace up. That's a big part of our identity with this team. We like to play fast. I think we've been doing a pretty good job of it. We have to make sure with these practice days to keep that pace up." While I don't agree w/ the second part of Myers' quote there (about the team playing fast), I found the first assessment to be telling. Also, since rejoining the league as the Atlanta Thrashers nearly two decades ago, the Jets have had little to no luck against Pittsburgh, especially on the road. They've dropped 23 of 28 visits and are just 15-43 in all matchups w/ the Pens. They're giving up a lot of shots per game too, 34.6 to be precise, which is the sixth most in the league on a per game basis right now. 8* Pittsburgh