8* Duke (12:00 ET):  Can Va Tech make it back to back upsets in one week? Highly unlikely. After besting #4 Virginia on Monday, 70-68 as 12.5-pt dogs, the Hokies now visit Cameron Indoor to play Duke. That upset of Virginia came at home, which is obviously significant, not only because Va Tech has played just one "true" road game to this point (at Radford!), but also due to the fact Duke is so good on their own floor. Coach K's team is 9-0 SU this year here, averaging a whopping 94.8 PPG, and today marks the ACC home opener. The Blue Devils are coming off B2B lopsided road wins over Boston College and Wake Forest to start conference play and their last nine wins have all come by at least 16 points. Lay the number here.

Go ahead and "tip your cap" to the job Buzz Williams is doing in Blacksburg, but while Duke has been dominant so far in ACC play, Williams' Hokies are a little fortunate to be 2-0 SU. They opened w/ a 73-68 overtime win against NC State, a game where they erased a 16-point second half deficit. Then somehow they managed to defeat Virginia despite the Hoos shooting 49 percent from the field (NC State shot only 32.3 percent). A major key to those two victories was the fact the Hokies turned the ball over a total of only 12 times. That's after turning it over 22 times in a loss New Year's Eve to West Virginia. Also, if they thought Virginia was tough to defend, Duke is even more lethal. The Blue Devils have shot better than 50 percent in four straight games and in seven of their last eight wins.

Consider that Va Tech had only two wins all of last year in ACC play, so this start is definitely surprising (dog both games). What Duke is doing is not that surprising though, even w/o Amile Jefferson, which has left Coach K with a somewhat short rotation. At some point, that may catch up w/ the Blue Devils, but not here.  In four of the last six games, they have topped 90 points. Va Tech simply doesn't have the kind of firepower needed to "keep up." After scoring 80+ pts in the previous game, Duke is an impressive 28-14 against the spread the L3 seasons. If ranking #1 in the country in offensive efficiency wasn't enough, they have also made more free throws than their opponents have attempted this season. 8* Duke

10* Phoenix (9:35 ET):  Things had been going quite horribly for the Suns before they beat Charlotte, 111-102 here at home Wednesday night. The nadir for them was most certainly an awful 97-77 loss to the Lakers the game prior, but as the win over the Hornets demonstrated, this is probably a good time to "buy low" on Phoenix after they'd lost nine in a row at one point. Here at home, Jeff Hornacek's team has been far more respectable, going 9-10 straight up (as opposed to 4-15 SU away).  Tonight's opponent, Miami, hasn't played many road games this season (league-low 12!) and they're only 6-6 SU so far. While the majority of the betting public will look at this line and likely only see a short number w/ the better team, don't make that same mistake. There's some really good value on Phoenix here and I'm taking the points.

I actually just played against the Heat in their last game when they were beaten at home by the Knicks (on ESPN), 98-90 as eight-point favorites. That loss came on the heels of three straight wins, but as I went on in my analysis for Knicks-Heat, Miami was fortunate to beat Indiana on Monday as they rallied back from an 18-point deficit at home and won in overtime. Somehow they got away w/ playing only five road games in the month of December and while their first of January went quite well (97-75 win over Washington, fact is that they average just 93.0 points per game away from home. While the Heat have been solid on the defensive end of the floor much of the season, they should have some difficulty containing a Phoenix side that averages 105.4 PPG here at home.

Somewhat incredibly, the Suns have lost to Miami ten straight times. This will be the first meeting this year after going 0-4 ATS the previous two seasons. Phoenix connected on 19 three-pointers in their win over Charlotte two nights ago while Miami allowed the Knicks to shoot better than 55 percent overall from the field. Again, I look for the hosts to score more than enough to stay within this number. My own personal power rankings say this line is about right, but again, the Suns seem to be at their "lowest point" and that's often the best time to take a team. 10* Phoenix

9* Under Lightning/Oilers (9:05 ET): Both of these teams have certainly had ample time to prepare for this one. Tampa Bay, who has been a big disappointment so far, hasn't taken the ice since Tuesday when they opened this three-game trip through Western Canada w/ a 3-1 loss at Calgary. Edmonton hasn't played since Monday when they won 1-0 (in overtime) over Carolina. I had the Under in that one (doesn't get any easier than that!) and seeing as that was the second time in their last three games that the Oilers played to a 1-0 final, I have zero issue coming back w/ the Under yet again here. Playing w/ extended rest hasn't treated Edmonton well in recent seasons as they're 2-9 SU with 3+ days rest (0-2 SU this year) and the Under is 8-3 in those games as well.

I mentioned that Tampa Bay has been a disappointment this year and much of that resides on the offensive end of the ice where they rank just 21st in the league in goals per game (2.5). If you recall, last year they ranked 1st. They're currently sixth in the Atlantic, which would of course mean no playoffs, but what's kept them afloat is that they rank 6th in goals allowed. Between the pipes, Ben Bishop has been as solid as ever w/ a .924 save percentage for the season. The Under is 10-4 this season in Lightning non-conference games and 4-1 when they're on the road and the number is 5.5. Penalty killing has been a real strength for this team as that unit is a perfect 18 for 18 the L7 games.

Edmonton struggles w/ the man advantage (1 for 19 L8 games), so don't look for them to crack the Tampa Bay PK. Over those last eight games, factoring out extra time, the Oilers have totaled just 14 goals. Again, in two of the last three games, they have failed to score in regulation. Not a big surprise there as they are 23rd for the season (below the Lightning) in goals per game. While 27th in goals allowed, I already discussed how TB has disappointed on that end of the ice and the fact is Edmonton goalie Cam Talbot has been hot w/ a 1.79 goals against average. His save percentage vs. Eastern Conference opponents this year (five starts) is .935.  Take the Under here. 9* Under Lightning/Oilers

8* Utah (9:00 ET): What has happened to the Utes? After starting the season strong (11-2 SU first 13 games), they've dropped their first two in conference play, both on the road. Clients/regular readers may recall that exactly one week ago I went against them as they lost the first of those two games, 70-68 (as five-point favorites) at Stanford.  Two days later, in a tough spot, they fell 71-58 at California. The Pac 12 schedule-makers certainly did Utah no favors by giving them three straight road games to open league play, but with several days to prepare, I feel they'll be ready for Colorado here.  The Buffaloes had dropped B2B games themselves (including one at Cal) before winning at Stanford Sunday, 56-55. I think the better team is getting points here.

Three of Utah's losses this season have been by double digits, but keep in mind this is a team that's also beaten Duke, San Diego State, Texas Tech and BYU (who they won't be playing again anytime soon, apparently). They have center Jakob Poeltl, a potential NBA lottery pick, who is averaging 17.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. He'll be the best player on the floor tonight. Being that they are coming off B2B losses, look for the Utes to be highly motivated from the start. They destroyed Colorado not once, but twice, last season as they prevailed by margins of 25 and 28 points. While they are third in the conference in scoring (81.9 PPG), the Utes issue has been defending the three-point line. Opponents are making 39.7 percent of 3-pt attempts against them, which is a very high number that I'd say is due to start coming down. 

Colorado may be unbeaten at home (8-0 SU), but they have turnover issues w/ the second worst margin in the conference. Though they've played the same conference slate Utah has, the Buffs were not tested as much earlier in the year during the non-conference portion of the schedule.  They live and die w/ the three-point shot, which is nice when they're going in, but tonight (despite Utah's issues guarding said shot) I wouldn't be surprised if they are line for an "off-night." CU nearly blew a 16-pt lead at Stanford Sunday night and won't enjoy the same rebounding edge they had there in this game. 8* Utah

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Well, I'm coming back with the T'Wolves again. That's somewhat scary given just how bad they've been at the Target Center this season (3-15-1 ATS!), but if you'll recall my analysis from the other night, I did say that the inevitable progression to the mean will likely come when the team starts getting big points here at home. Well, they are tonight as LeBron James and Cleveland come calling and Minnesota should be fired up for this one as the game will be on ESPN. The T'Wolves were favored Wednesday vs. Denver and came up short (losing 78-74), but that was one of five home losses this year by six points or less. Surprisingly, they've actually been favored in half of their home games this season. The market has now shifted against them and it's time to take advantage by grabbing the points.

Clearly, on paper, this looks like a mismatch. The Cavs come in having won five straight and 11 of their last 13. Fully healthy now (Kyrie Irving back), they have established themselves as the team to beat in the East (what we all expected). But their defense, which had been much improved over the L3 weeks, has fallen off the past two games. Both Washington & Toronto were able to score 100+ against them and they allowed the Wizards to shoot better than 55% for the game Weds night including 14 of 24 from three-point range (the last one resulting in a "backdoor" cover). Cleveland has played a lot of close games so far this year as over half (17 of 33) have been decided by six points or less. With a couple of weak opponents on the horizon (T'wolves & Sixers), it would be only natural to see the Cavs "let up" a bit on what will be a six-game road trip.

Minnesota, meanwhile, cannot possibly be any worse offensively than they were in the fourth quarter Weds vs. Denver. There, they scored only 9 points (2 for 20 from the field!) in the 78-74 setback. The YTD trends may not like them here, but again, what's surprising is that they've actually been favored in four of their past five games. Another surprise is that there has been only a handful of games this year where the T'wolves have been getting big points like they are here. Eight of Cleveland's nine losses this year have come on the road where they are just 9-8 SU overall. 10* Minnesota

10* Under Red Wings/Sharks (10:35 ET):  Detroit has scored exactly one goal in three of its last five games. What is the commonality of those three games? All were on the road.  That includes a 1-0 win over New Jersey their last time out and that score shouldn't have been too big of a surprise considering the total was 4.5 and those two teams both rank in the bottom eight in the league in # of shots per game (Devils are last). So, I certainly think there's some good value here in taking the Under (especially at 5.5) as they visit the Shark Tank to take on a team that also scored only one goal in its last game. But for San Jose, they lost (4-1) at home to Winnipeg as for whatever reason they've really struggled to score here all season.  

San Jose's overall offensive numbers don't look so bad as they actually rank 11th in the league in goals per game. However, for whatever reason, they can't seem to find the back of the net w/ any regularity here at the Shark Tank. They average just 2.3 goals per game on home ice and that's even after scoring seven times in a split with Colorado and Philadelphia.  I'm actually quite stunned that the Over is 10-5 in all Sharks' home games as what's kept them afloat is allowing just 26.1 shots per game here, an outstanding number. For the season, San Jose is top five in fewest shots allowed. The goaltending hasn't been solid, which is a concern, but again Martin Jones isn't likely to face many shots here from a Red Wings side that averages only 26.6 per game on the road.

Detroit is likely to counter w/ Petr Mrazek, who has been solid all year and particularly of late. He has a .933 save percentage on the road this season and over his last five starts a 1.96 goals against average. San Jose had been involved in a lot of high scoring games previous to their last one (six staight Overs), but tonight should be a low-scoring game on both sides as the Red Wings are just 20th in goals per game and have averaged only 1.8 over their last five. It's rare to see a Detroit game w/ a total of 5.5 (only happened twice in the last 11 games), so take advantage. 10* Under Red Wings/Sharks

8* Loyola Marymount (10:00 ET): St. Mary's is an incredible 11-0 against the spread this season and while I might be guilty of "chasing," suffice to say we all know that the Gaels won't be covering every game this seaosn. They have opened WCC play w/ four dominant, double-digit wins, the latest coming Saturday at home as they rolled over San Diego by a score of 79-46.  But now they're being asked to hit the road for only the third time all season and I think a battle-tested Loyola Marymount team (only five home games) is going to give them all they can handle. The Gaels only loss this year did come on the road, at Cal, and that was one where if you took the opening number (as I did), you actually would have covered going against them. I like the home dog in this one. Take the points.

Loyola Marymount was done no favors by the WCC schedule-makers as they had to open conference play with three consecutive road games. They dropped all three, but did at least cover their last time out, losing by only three at Pepperdine as eight-point dogs. As mentioned earlier, the Lions haven't gotten many chances to play at home this season, but when they do they're undefeated at 5-0 SU. The teams that have come here are a real "rogue's gallery," but the good news is that LMU has averaged over 80.0 PPG in those victories. Now the Lions have come up empty the last few seasons against St. Mary's, but this team is "due" having come up just short in OT vs. Pepperdine on Saturday. I figure that they are certainly due to improve upon their woeful 37.6 percent shooting from their first three conference games.

St. Mary's was not expected to be this good this season. They rolled in their last game, 79-46 over San Diego, their third 20+ pt victory in four WCC games. But their insanely hot shooting this year (54.3%!) is due to regress. They've been even more ridiculous in conference play (56.7% from the field!) and even less "fair" is that their opponents have shot just 38.4% for the season. I realize that this is the hallmark of a good team, but that kind of discrepancy is also totally unsustainable. Consider that three of their last six opponents have been below 30 percent shooting!  I look for LMU to shoot well enough to stay inside the number in this one. 8* Loyola Marymount

10* Utah (8:05 ET): On paper, the Jazz would seem to be in some trouble here. This is the second game of a home and home w/ Houston, but in between they had to play a game in San Antonio (last night) where they predictably lost big, 123-98. The team has really struggled ever since losing Rudy Gobert to injury. Even worse is that Derrick Favors is now hurt (missed yday's game) as well. But as rough as things may look here, Houston has been a disaster at the betting window this year (league worst 13-23-3 ATS) including five straight non-covers. Utah covered Monday's game, losing by only two, and should have likely won outright as they held a 15-point lead in the second half. The oddsmakers are being quite generous here. Take the points.

Win or lose, Utah has typically been strong on the defensive end of the floor this season (97.6 PPG allowed). This was not the case last night, however, as the league-best Spurs torched them for 123 points on better than 60 percent shooting. That was a season-worst effort on the defensive end for the Jazz. Houston might be strong offensively, but Utah held them to only 93 points Monday and outside of James Harden (30 points) no other player contributed much of anything. Of course, we know that the Rockets are not sound defensively and them holding the Jazz to 91 points (on 40% shooting) was an atypical performance. For the season, Houston is allowing a ghastly 105.8 PPG and the four opponents before Utah all topped that average.

While the Jazz haven't found much success against the Rockets, particularly here in Houston, they are 10-3 ATS this season playing w/ revenge including 6-1 if said loss occurred at home.  As mentioned previously, Houston has been awful at the betting window this year after being the league's best ATS team last year. Laying this many points while being so bad defensively is not a sound combination.  As a home favorite, they are a lousy 4-11 against the spread and actually have a losing straight up record in those games (7-8). Incredibly, they have not covered a spread higher than -4 all year w/ the exception of two games against the lousy Lakers. 10* Utah

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  Yes, Philadelphia treated me nicely w/ a 4-3 win over Montreal Tuesday, but as yday's play ON the Habs illustrated, I'm not afraid to zig and zag in the NHL. Even after that win two nights ago (were favored), the Flyers are still tied for 6th in the Metro w/ only 39 points and they have the second worst goal differential in the Eastern Conference (-22). They are only 7-10-3 on the road and tonight travel to face a Minnesota team that is strong on its home ice (14-5-1) and 5th in the league in goals allowed. The Wild are off a 4-2 win in Columbus Tuesday night, which concluded a four-game road trip that saw them put a lot of shots on net, win or lose. Tonight, it'll be the former in their return home.

Offensively, the Wild have been somewhat limited this year. But they are coming off their highest-scoring effort in recent memory w/ the four goals against the Blue Jackets. Also, as I said, they were putting plenty of shots on goal during the recently completed road trip as they averaged 33.5 in the four games, peaking w/ 40 in a tough 2-1 loss to red-hot Florida over the weekend. So I expect the puck to start "finding the back of the net" at a higher rate for them. As for the defensive end of the ice, there are few problems. Like I said, they rank 5th in the league in goals allowed and have allowed just 12 goals in the last seven games. Since December 1st, no Western Conference team has allowed fewer goals than Minnesota's 1.76 per game. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk will likely be between the pipes tonight and over the L5 games he's posted outstanding numbers (1.59 goals against average and .948 save percentage). 

Considering Philadelphia's recent play on the road, this would seem to be an ideal matchup for the Wild. Over their last five away games, the Flyers have scored only eight times and that includes a winless West Coast trip last week where they were held to just five goals total in three games. Scoring has been an issue for Philly all season as they are just 29th overall in goals per game. At the same time, they give up far too many shots (32.4 per game, 2nd most in the league). This shapes up as a great matchup for the Wild. 8* Minnesota

10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): SMU is one of two unbeatens left in College Hoops (South Carolina), but despite that distinction, I'm actually pretty shocked they are favored in this spot here, despite being at home. ICYMI, the Mustangs lost a key contributor mid-week, Keith Frazier, who decided to quit the team. Frazier was part of the academic cheating scandal that landed the program on probation (ineligible for NCAA Tournament) and was one of five double digit scorers (11.9 PPG). Maybe that doesn't sound like a significant loss, but it is. This is a team whose regular rotation only runs eight deep. Tonight sees SMU taking on its toughest test to date, that being Cincinnati, who I give a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points.

Cincy is 11-4 straight up and coming off dominant home win (76-57) over Tulsa that was much needed. Previously, the Bearcats had actually dropped B2B games, both at home. The first was to Iowa State, somewhat understandable, but a 77-70 defeat at the hands of 11.5-pt dog Temple was clearly their worst loss of the season. Their only other losses this year have come at the hands of Butler (at the buzzer) and Xavier (unbeaten at the time). Interestingly, three of those four losses came at home. They are 4-1 SU in road/neutral site games, holding teams to just 59 points per game. Note that they are one of just three visiting teams to win here at Moody Coliseum the L3 years, having beaten the Mustangs 62-54 (as 6.5-pt dogs) last season.

The Bearcats' defense will be the key to this game. Last year, they held SMU to just 36.5% shooting overall, including 3 for 14 from three-point range in the upset here in Dallas. They actually swept the Mustangs, also winning 56-50 at home and SMU wasn't much better from three-point range in that one, making just 3 of 11. Playing w/o Frazier for the first time, SMU struggled shooting the ball against South Florida on Saturday (season-low 41.1 percent), again particularly from three-point range (6 of 23). After HC Mick Cronin somewhat ripped his team for the B2B losses, the Bearcats responded by holding Tulsa to 33.3 percent shooting (4 of 21 from 3-pt range). I "smell" a potential upset here. 10* Cincinnati

10* Over Hurricanes/Canucks (10:05 ET): I suppose that one could make a fairly compelling case that both of these two teams are better than their respective records. I've written about this before, but Carolina continues to rank near the very top of the league in advanced metrics (2nd in Corsi, 3rd in Fenwick), meaning they possess the puck more often than not and typically outshoot their opponents. But some suspect goaltending has really cost them, even though their most recent loss was a hard-luck 1-0 decision (in overtime) at Edmonton (I had the Under!). Vancouver, meanwhile, has taken more OT losses than any other team in the league (9).  Rather than make an attempt at playing the side in this tricky matchup, I'm "all about" the total here as I see two teams struggling at the offensive end being able to remedy those issues against one another tonight. Take the Over.

So Carolina was shutout in their last game. That came on the heels of a 2-1 OT loss to Nashville. Scoring only one goal over a two-game span w/ extra time added is clearly not a "good look." But remember New Year's Eve, when I took them, and they rewarded me w/ a 4-2 victory over a Washington team (that had previously won nine in a row)?  The Under is 7-1-1 their last nine games, which is what you might expect from a team that allows the fewest number of shots per game in the league. But goaltending has really let the team down as Eddie Lack and Cam Ward have a combined save percentage below .900. Granted both have been better lately, but the 'Canes are still bottom 10 in the league in goals allowed.

Vancouver's goaltending has been no better, Ryan Miller especially. Over his L4 starts, his save percentage is a woeful .881. However, an injury to Miller's groin makes it more likely that we'll again be seeing Jakob Markstrom between the pipes here. Markstrom has started the L2 games for the Canucks and Monday vs. Arizona saw him allow three goals on 29 shots.  The Canucks are 4-0-1 Under their L5 games, but again I expect things to turn the other way here. Over a quarter of Carolina's games this season have pushed on a 5-goal total (11 of 40) and I look for this one to "get over the hump." 10* Over Hurricanes/Canucks

8* California (9:00 ET): Normally, when a team is off a SU loss as a favorite (such as Oregon is here), I might look to play ON them. But this isn't the first time I've gone against Oregon, nor is it likely to be the last. The Ducks are coming off a 70-57 loss, as 2.5-pt chalk, to rival Oregon State over the weekend and return home to face a Cal team that is just plain better than they are right now. The Ducks are only being "propped up" by the fact that they have won 16 straight here in Eugene, but all good streaks must come to an end and in the case of this one, I wouldn't be surprised if "tonight's the night." Take the points w/ a Cal team whose only loss over its L9 games came by a single point (in overtime) at Virginia.

The visiting Bears are off an impressive win on Sunday as they beat ranked Utah, 71-58, in Berkeley. It was their fifth consecutive game covering the spread and they now have the best overall record among Pac 12 teams at 12-3 SU. Cuonzo Martin's team will absolutely be tested on this three-game road trip, but I see them as being up to the challenge. Remember that this team came into the season ranked 14th in the country. That was probably a case of putting "the cart before the horse," but w/ a veteran team back, plus the additions of two top 10 freshman in the country - Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb - this is going to be a dangerous team come March. The two freshman have gotten their respective offensive games going and I think Oregon is going to be in big trouble tonight.

Even w/ multiple players in foul trouble on Sunday, Cal was never really in danger of losing to Utah, whom they led by double digits for a good portion of the game. Defensively, this team has really turned a corner as they're allowing only 60.0 PPG their last seven contests and Utah scored only 22 first half points against them. Coming off a 57-point effort (on just 35.8% shooting) against Oregon State, I expect Oregon to have similar difficulties here.  Even though OSU's leading scorer Gary Payton, Jr didn't score in the 1st half Sunday, the Ducks found themselves trailing 34-19 going into the break (not a good sign!) and they couldn't come back despite the Beavers attempting only TWO three-pointers the entire 2H!  The better team is getting points in this one. 8* California

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  Well, I'm going back to well w/ Minnesota, at home, again and at this point it's definitely fair to say that I'm "chasing."  The T'wolves are an abysmal 3-14-1 against the spread on their own floor this year, most recently suffering a 10-point setback here to Milwaukee.  Even more embarrassing though was another outright loss, this one on the road, to Philadelphia Monday night. They became just the second team to lose by double digits to the now 4-33 Sixers and overall it was Minny's seventh loss in its last eight games. I know they've let us down before here at the Target Center, but tonight they get a chance to host a team that is in even worse shape than they are, that being Denver, losers of six straight (and 9 of 10). Lay the points.

These teams met not that long ago, here in Minneapolis, and the Nuggets came out on top 112-100 as 6.5-pt dogs. So you can see right away that there's a little bit of value in the shorter line this evening. Since that win, the bottom has dropped out for Denver (has a lot to due w/ injuries) as they've won just the one time in their L10 games. They've given up 110+ points in three straight games and while one of those was an OT loss at Golden State, they were also swept in a home and home by Portland. PG Emmnauel Mudiay is expected back here after missing the L12 games, but I don't think his presence will be enough to lift a Denver team that is allowing 104.2 points per game on the road this season.

Minnesota's awful home record is obviously due to regress back to the mean and while normally that might come about as a result of larger spreads in the underdog role, I anticipate perhaps their biggest margin of victory at home all season tonight. They too should be getting back a key contributor, Nikola Pekovic, who hasn't played at all this season following offseason surgeries. The T'wolves have lost to Denver twice this season, but I feel that the third time will be the charm as they are 7-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss, plus the Nuggets are only 4-10 ATS coming off a game where they scored 105 or more points. 8* Minnesota

8* Montreal (7:05 ET): Yep. One day after making a compelling case to go AGAINST the Canadiens, I'll come back with them tonight. I was obviously correct in fading the Habs last night as they went to Philadelphia and lost 4-3 to the Flyers. That concluded a pretty awful 2-6 SU road trip where their only win in regulation came New Year's Day in the Winter Classic vs. Boston (whom they always seem to beat). Overall, the Habs are just 4-12-1 their L17 games and considering that I was harping on the continued absence of goalie Carey Price in yday's analysis, taking them in the second game of a back to back seems like the LEAST likely situation you'd want to back them in. But, thankfully, the offensively inept Devils are crossing the border tonight and I feel that this is an ideal matchup for Montreal to get back on track.

These teams have met twice before this season and exchanged road victories by matching scores of 3-2.  New Jersey did not face Price either time. But again, I think the key here is that the Devils do a very poor job at getting the puck on net. They rank very low in both Corsi (29th) and Fenwick (27th) and are dead last in the league in # of shots w/ only 24.9 per game. Hard as it is to fathom, but that number has gotten even lower over the L5 games (23.4) as the last time we saw them, they were shutout (1-0) at home by Detroit.  They are 27th in the league in goals per game (2.3) and totally reliant on goaltender Corey Schneider. Honestly, I am stunned that they currently hold one of the two Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference as they have 45 points, just two fewer than Montreal! 

The Habs have not played a home game in over two weeks, so perhaps being back at the Bell Centre will help turn things around. They are 11-6-2 here this season and despite the recent slide remain in the top three in goal differential in the entire Eastern Conference. Clearly, they miss Price, but Mike Condon actually has a save percentage of .927 his L4 outings and isn't likely to be as tested here for the reasons stated above. They've allowed an average of 32.2 shots the past five games, but New Jersey won't come close to that as the Habs also allow only 25.5 per game here at home. 8* Montreal

10* New York (7:05 ET): The Knicks won last night, 107-101 in Atlanta, but by being in the second game of a back to back come in undervalued for tonight's nationally televised showdown in Miami. By sweeping a home and home w/ the Hawks, New York has already exceeded LY's win total, which is pretty impressive, although it also illustrates just how bad they were in 2014-15. While I don't think this is a playoff team yet, they have gone 9-4 against the spread dating back to December 10th and in what likely should be a fairly low-scoring affair tonight, getting all these points from the linesmakers is a nice luxury to have. Over the L3 seasons, the Knicks are just 1-8 SU/ATS vs. the Heat, including 0-4 SU/ATS here in Miami, but I'll call for them to at least cover here. Take the points. 

The Knicks played very well in the two games against Atlanta, averaging 109 points. Last night, on the road, they led by as many as 16 in the second half before things got tight late. But never surrendering that lead is definitely a positive sign. So is Aaron Afflalo having scored a combined 61 pts the L2 games as it's not only Carmelo Anthony and rookie Kristaps Porzingis carrying the scoring burden. The team did control the paint and outrebounded Atlanta as well. Getting points has served the Knicks well this season (14-9 ATS) and they haven't been too bothered by playing w/o rest, going 4-3 vs. the number in the second game of a B2B. 

Now things are likely to be tougher here against a Miami team that is surrendering only 94.6 PPG for the season. But the Heat are actually slightly WORSE defensively here at home and were fortunate to record a 103-100 overtime win against Indiana on Monday as Dwyane Wade made a driving layup to tie the game at the end of regulation. They trailed the Pacers by as many as 18 in that game and while it was their third straight win and cover, the team hasn't fared nearly as well when laying a bigger number. In fact, they are just 1-5 ATS as favorites of eight points or more w/ three outright losses. They are also 0-3 SU/ATS this season following three consecutive victories. This all makes sense as the Heat typically don't score a ton (97.4 PPG), so points are likely to be at a premium here. 10* New York

10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET):  Villanova, not surprisingly, has established itself as one of the premier teams in the country. I took them on New Year's Eve as they absolutely destroyed Xavier, 95-64, handing the Musketeers their first loss of the entire season. 'Nova followed that up w/ another easy win, 85-71 at Creighton (were 8 pt favorites) and their three-year ATS record now stands at a remarkable 55-24, including 29-8 here at home. Early in the year, I was playing against them (to mixed results), noting this phenomenal run against the pointspread had to start regressing sooner or later. Well, it hasn't yet, but tonight I'll call for the Wildcats to struggle a bit more than expected as they host another 12-2 team, Seton Hall. Take the points.

I also took Seton Hall in its Big East opener. Once again, I was rewarded as the Pirates went into Marquette and dominated, winning 83-63 as 3-pt dogs. Two days later, they hosted DePaul and while they did win for a seventh consecutive time, they failed to cover the 10-point spread (won 78-74). Perhaps they were looking forward to this game as they haven't beaten Villanova in Philly in their L14 tries. However, they have taken two of the last three meetings overall, including a five-point win at home last season (were +7). They are also 2-1 SU in "true" road games so far and their only two losses have both been by single digits. This looks to be a classic over-inflated number due to Villanova's recent form.

Five of the seven wins during Seton Hall's current win streak have come by double digits. They also hold victories over Ole Miss (neutral floor) and Wichita State. The last team they lost to was George Washington, who beat Virginia. As I wrote about in the Marquette analysis, the Pirates are led by Isaiah Whitehead, who is now up to 15.1 points and 4.6 assists per game. Angel Delgado continues to pace the Big East w/ an average of 10.3 rebounds per game as he and Khadeen Carrington are the reason why this team does so well in points in the paint, especially second chance opportunities. The Pirates get to the free throw line often as well (73.6% from the charity stripe), but most important here is the fact they allow only 63.9 PPG. I see this being a tight, relatively low-scoring game throughout, which means grabbing the points is the way to go here. 10* Seton Hall

10* Nebraska (9:00 ET): Coming off a tremendous week that saw them "upset" both Michigan State (were actually favored against the Spartans) and Purdue, it's probably a good idea to "sell high" right now on Iowa as they are laying a big number against a Nebraska team that will arrive in Iowa City likely to give the Hawkeyes its best shot.  The Cornhuskers also remember LY's matchup w/ the Hawkeyes as they got drubbed 74-46 in Lincoln as only a one-point home dog. They could not "hit water from a boat" in that one as they trailed 42-16 at half and for the game made only 32.7% of their shots, including 2 of 18 three-point attempts. Things haven't gone particularly well recently for Nebraska either, but I expect a close game nonetheless. Take the points.

The effort Iowa turned in exactly seven days ago vs. Michigan State may have been their finest to date under HC Fran McCaffery (I was on them!). But remember that MSU was w/o Denzel Valentine there and HC Tom Izzo was dealing with his father having passed away 24 hours earlier.  So, needless to say, I was an advantageous spot for the Hawkeyes there. Then, four days later they went to West Lafayette and upset Purdue, 70-63 as nine-point pups. But as impressive as that seems, be aware that they actually trailed the Boilermakers by as many as 19 points before scoring 50 in the second half. But it was the defense, which held the Boilermakers to just eight second half field goals that won them that game.  Tip your cap to that 2H performance, but it will be extremely hard to duplicate moving forward. 

This isn't a great spot for Iowa by any means. They have an eight-day break following this game, followed by the rematch w/ Michigan State. So there could be a bit of a "look ahead" factor in play tonight.  Also, while in retrospect, it seems pretty ridiculous that the Hawkeyes weren't ranked, now they seem a little overvalued. Remember that this has been quite the inconsistent bunch under McCaffery.  While they made the huge rally against Purdue, they also blew a big lead and lost at Iowa State. Nebraska is not on that level, but since losing at Villanova on November 17th, they've lost only two times by more than 10 points. 10* Nebraska

10* Over Kings/Mavericks (8:35 ET):  I caught a bit of a bad break last night as Kevin Durant's injured toe kept him out of his team's game vs. Sacramento and thus laying points ended up being a bad idea as the Kings upset the Thunder 116-104, continuing their recent resurgence (8-5 SU L13 games). However, beware that this team is 0-6 ATS this season when coming off a SU win as a dog as well as 9-26 ATS their L35 times in this spot. But rather than get caught laying points again (there is no denying that George Karl has his team playing better), I'm instead turning to the total. Even not having to face Durant, I was stunned to see Sacramento hold OKC to only 104 pts last night as for the season they are giving up over 110 PPG on the road.  We know Dallas can score.  Take the Over.

We know the Mavs can score, but they have struggled offensively the L2 games, first scoring only 82 @ Miami and then 96 vs. New Orleans, both losses. But a date with the Kings might be just what the doctor ordered. I say this despite the fact they scored only 98 points against the Kings in a loss earlier this year. But that game took place in Sacramento and as we know the Kings are typically much worse defensively when they take their act out on the road where they are now just 5-11 straight up.  Dallas had previously topped 100 pts every time during a four-game win streak, including a huge win over the Warriors w/o Steph Curry. They are 12-4 Over when favored this season (interesting b/c the Under is 12-4 in all home games) and a perfect 3-0 Over when they are off a SU loss as a favorite.

It was of course only two games ago that Sacramento dropped 142 points on lowly Phoenix, shooting better than 60 percent for the game.  So they'll likely "get theirs" as well tonight.  On the defensive end, Dallas is allowing 101.1 PPG and while they're significantly better at home, they did allow the Pelicans to score 105 here on Saturday and the day after X-Mas, Chicago (not an efficient offensive team) came to town and scored 111 in a high-scoring affair (Mavs won). On the other end of the floor, after making only 17 of 56 three-point attempts the L2 games, I expect the Mavs to be better tonight. 10* Over Kings/Mavericks

10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET):  You might be surprised to find the Flyers favored on the money line here against Eastern Conference heavyweight Montreal, but don't be. Outside of their performance in the Winter Classic (against an opponent they always seem to dominate, that being rival Boston), the Habs have been struggling of late.  They'd dropped 9 of 11 prior to the win on New Year's Day and this regression can largely be pinned on the fact they are still without Carey Price in goal. Florida has even passed them for the top spot in the Atlantic Division and the team has fallen to 12th in goals allowed per game.  It'll be the recently acquired Ben Scrivens between the pipes tonight and after he lost his first start (3-1 to the Panthers), I expect more of the same here tonight in Philly.

The Flyers will certainly be happy to be back in the City of Brotherly Love following an 0-3 trip through Southern California that concluded w/ a 2-1 loss to Los Angeles on Saturday. It was the fifth time in the last six games they'd scored two goals or fewer and considering they conceded four in losses to both Anaheim and San Jose, things are not necessarily "looking up" right now for Dave Hakstol's team.  But there's going to be some line tinkering here and the team's top three point scorers figure to all be out on the ice at the same time now. That should lead to an increase in offensive production while between the pipes we have Steve Mason, who has turned in a 1.63 goals against average his L3 starts vs. Montreal. Averaging 33.1 shots per game at home, the Flyers should be scoring more than 2.1 goals per game.

If you think that the extended rest that the Canadiens have had here will help, then think again. They are 0-3 SU this season when taking the ice w/ three or more days rest. The last time it happened, the day after X-Mas, they fell at Washington 3-1. Now, Philadelphia isn't Washington, but note that the Habs are just 11-9-1 on the road this season. They are also now w/o forward Dale Weise just as Brendan Gallagher returned, so injuries remain a concern. Revenge will be a motivating factor here for the Flyers, who were swept 3-0 in LY's season series. 10* Philadelphia

10* Under Capitals/Bruins (7:05 ET):  East-leading Washington had won nine in a row when I played against them on New Year's Eve. I got a nice win w/ Carolina that day (+128 on the money line!) and then the Caps followed that up w/ an even more surprising loss, that being 5-4 at Columbus Saturday. So they are now 0-2 on the current five-game road trip w/ the next stop being tonight in Boston. The Bruins, losers of four of their last five, have not played since dropping the Winter Classic 5-1 to rival Montreal.  Both of these teams have experienced some really high-scoring results of late, which is somewhat atypical. Therefore, I'll call for some "order" to be restored here as this one should stay Under the total.

The Capitals have now allowed nine goals in B2B losses after giving up only 13 during the entirety of the nine-game win streak. What's been the culprit? Well, Braden Holtby's absence can be "blamed" for the 4-2 loss to Carolina (was the 2nd game of a B2B). But their #1 goaltender was back on the ice Saturday in Columbus and shockingly gave up a pair of third period goals, which allowed the game to go into extra time. Previously, he had gone 16-0-1 in 17 starts and not only is he second in the league in goals against average (1.93), but he's also third in save percentage (.932). He'd gone 22 straight starts w/o allowing 4+ goals. Washington gives up the second fewest number of goals per game of any team, so I would expect things to tighten up at that end of the ice moving forward. In the last four matchups vs. Boston, they've allowed only ONE goal w/ Holtby posting three shutouts.

The fact that these teams rank 1-2 (Boston-Washington) on the power play will be nullified by the fact that each is outstanding on the penalty kill as well.  The Capitals are 5th in the league on the PK (84.5%) while the Bruins have killed off 30 of 31 power plays. Similar to Holtby's last outing, I've been surprised to see Boston netminder Tuukka Rask struggle so much recently. But I'll chalk up the performance at the Winter Classic to the unfamiliar surroundings and note he was NOT between the pipes in the team's 6-3 loss to Buffalo the previous Saturday. On offense, it's largely been "feast or famine" for these Bruins as they've been held to three goals or fewer in five of their last six. These teams have a history of going Under (50 of last 76 meetings!) including a 27 of the L38 here in Beantown. The Under is 3-0-1 the L4 overall w/ a matchup earlier this season pushing. But we've got the extra half-goal to work w/ here and that can make all the difference in the world.  10* Under Capitals/Bruins

8* Auburn (7:00 ET): With Oklahoma losing last night (what a game!), there are only two unbeaten teams left in all of College Basketball. Interestingly, I don't think that anyone would consider either to be among the nation's true elite. One, SMU, is actually ineligible for the postseason due to sanctions. The other is South Carolina, who I'll be playing against here. The Gamecocks are 13-0 SU (8-1-1 ATS) and coming off an 86-76 win over Memphis this past weekend. HC Frank Martin has done a tremendous job in building up this program, but as they get set to open SEC play tonight, I feel they are ripe to be upset. This is just their second "true" road game of the year and the first outside of the state of South Carolina. Take the points.

Tonight's opponent, Auburn, has already begun conference play w/ an 83-77 win here at home over Tennessee. The Tigers have their own high-profile coach, Bruce Pearl, and  on Saturday they beat his former school thanks to some red-hot second half shooting (59 percent!). The team had previously dropped three of four, including two straight, before that win. They can absolutely score here at home (88.5 PPG!) and have won the L3 regular season meetings vs. South Carolina.  That includes a 71-68 win (+2.5) last season despite shooting only 36.5% from the field. While Pearl is dealing w/ some injuries this season, Marshall transfer Kareem Canty has picked up the slack, leading the team in scoring w/ 19.3 PPG.

South Carolina had a lot of help from the opposition on Saturday as Memphis sent them to the free throw line an astounding 63 times, a school record. That was what aided them the most in pulling away late as the game was actually tied w/ nine minutes to go. Not to accuse the referees of anything, but it would seem highly unlikely that the Gamecocks will benefit from such an abundance of FT attempts here.  A total of five Memphis players fouled out. South Carolina is being asked to lay more points here than they were at Clemson when they ended up prevailing by only six points. They were 3-0 at the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands, but beating DePaul, Hofstra and Tulsa isn't that impressive. This will be their toughest test to date. 8* Auburn

8* Charlotte (10:35 ET): I haven't been afraid to "step out" against Golden State recently, first doing so X-Mas Day when they hosted Cleveland and then again at Dallas (w/o Steph Currey) when they were crushed 114-91.  Curry may not play again tonight and I'll take the chance that he won't (though this play IS still valid even if he does) as the Warriors host the MVP's hometown team, Charlotte. Truth be told, if my new power rankings came out today, the defending champs would no longer be #1 (San Antonio would). I now rate the Spurs as being a full-point better on a neutral floor. Regression was somewhat inevitable for the Warriors after that ridiculous start and after watching them struggle to get by lowly Denver the other night (needed OT), I'm going to grab the points here.

Charlotte is a team in desperate need of a win, or at least a strong performance. Banged up, the team has lost three in a row and six of its last eight to fall out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. They've been a little fortunate in the sense that they've played 20 of their 33 games so far at home. But the home court edge certainly didn't help them on Saturday when they were held to only 90 points (on 34.5% shooting) in a 19-point loss to Oklahoma City. Still, the Hornets are 5-1 ATS this season when coming off a double-digit loss and stand to shoot better here than they did the other night. With Curry mostly on the sidelines, the Warriors have struggled a bit defensively, giving up 114, 110 and 108 points their last three games.

After missing two games, the loss to Dallas and a win over Houston, Curry returned to the lineup Saturday vs. Denver, but reinjured his calf after just 14 minutes of play and thus is listed as questionable for tonight.  I know that this being his hometown team, he'll want to play (his dad, Dell, will be in the building as he is a Hornets color commentator). But I wouldn't risk it, especially w/ a three-game road trip beginning tomorrow night. Again, even if Curry does play, go against the Warriors here as the line will certainly be bet up (so you may want to wait a little before placing your actual bet here). The Hornets have revenge here for a 17-point home loss last month.  8* Charlotte

8* Oklahoma (9:00 ET):  This could actually end up being a battle of #1 vs. #1 as Oklahoma is #2 in the Coaches Poll and Kansas #2 in the AP. With Michigan State losing last week, it stands to reason that both would ascend to the top spot in respective polls when they come out later today.  Regardless, this is an outstanding matchup. While Kansas is currently perceived to be the top team in the country, Oklahoma is still unbeaten and all things considered, I believe this line to be too high. Yes, the game takes place in Lawrence where OU has not won in over a decade. Also, as you know, I've been playing AGAINST those few remaining unbeatens over the last month w/ great success (like the aforementioned Mich State against Iowa LW). But the bottom line is this game rates as a toss-up to me, so taking the points is the way to go.

Recent results, on the both sides, have helped to drive this number up.  Oklahoma is off a close call on Saturday where they beat Iowa State 87-83 as a 6.5-point choice themselves. But I think playing a tough opponent like that will actually serve them well here. The Sooners did trail for much of the second half, but then won the game despite ISU shooting the ball at a ridiculous 56.2% clip over the final 20 minutes.  That's pretty impressive. Yet the market has turned on them, likely due to three consecutive ATS defeats, including another close call at Hawaii right before X-Mas.  But considering the Sooners' experience and the fact they are averaging 87.0 points per game getting points seems like a nice luxury to have.

Kansas, meanwhile, destroyed Baylor 102-74 on Saturday for their fifth consecutive ATS win. So, their stock is really high in the public's eyes right now. However, since losing to Michigan State on November 17th (by six), the Jayhawks haven't really been tested. They are 8-2 ATS when favored this season and averaging slightly more points per game than OU. But I can't help but think this is an overlay.  The Jayhawks' last four opponents have all shot 39.0 percent or worse from the field, which I don't envision the Sooners doing here. OU will have the best player on the floor Monday night (Buddy Hield) and remember they destroyed Villanova on a neutral court earlier this year. 8* Oklahoma

10* Under Hurricanes/Oilers (9:05 ET):  I've previously written about how Carolina has played much better than its record. I took them as an underdog (on home ice) New Year's Eve against Washington (who had won 7 straight at the time) and was richly rewarded w/ a 4-2 victory. Unfortunately, the team that ranks 2nd in Corsi and 3rd in Fenwick was unable to follow up on that big victory as they fell to Nashville, 2-1 in overtime, two days later. Then again, given how well the Predators rate in those two categories, perhaps that was just a bad matchup for the 'Canes. Here, they play an Edmonton team whose possession numbers cannot compare and the result of that will be a low-scoring affair. I'm on the Under in this one.

The Oilers snapped a four-game losing streak their last time out w/ a 4-3 win over Arizona. But that's also a Coyotes team that ranks dead last in the league in goals allowed. Carolina ranks a disappointing 22nd in that department, but should be better given how few shots they give up. Opponents average only 26.1 shot attempts per game vs. the Canes, so Edmonton's number of scoring chances here should be few and far between. As alluded to earlier, the Oilers had really been struggling before beating the 'Yotes, losing the previous four and seven of eight.  They were shut out twice during that span and earlier this year they managed only a single goal in a lopsided loss to Carolina.

That first meeting saw a total of only 5.0, so the game (4-1 Carolina win) ended up pushing. But here we're getting a good value w/ the extra one-half goal.  Carolina's fourth goal in that previous win came on an empty-netter in the last minute. Edmonton's lone goal came on the power play.  I'd be surprised if the Hurricanes scored as many as they did last time this go around as they rank only 25th in goals per game league-wide and are 11-8 Under on the road this season. At the same time, they've allowed two or less goals in seven of the last eight games.  10* Under Hurricanes/Oilers

8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): I like this matchup a lot for the Thunder. Sure, it's a big number and they're up against a team that just scored 142 points in its last game. But after witnessing what happened to Phoenix last night, any result involving them should certainly be taken w/ a "grain of salt" at this point. Thus, expect a sharp decline from Sacramento on the offensive end here after shooting a preposterous 60.9 percent from the field Saturday against the Suns. This is also a road game for the Kings and that means trouble as they are an awful 4-11 SU away from home while giving up a whopping 110.6 points per game. Defense figures to be an issue for them in this one as OKC is second in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. Lay the points.

Over its L5 games, the Thunder are averaging 113.1 PPG and here they should have no trouble scoring against a Sacramento side that has allowed 110+ in three consecutive contests.  Only Golden State tops OKC's average of 1.10 points per possession.  This is a big number and I understand that the Thunder have failed to deliver each of the last four times they've been double digit chalk. But they did just come through w/ an impressive road win over a pretty good Charlotte team on Saturday.  There, they proved they could play some defense as well, limiting the Hornets to only 90 points on 34.5 percent shooting, including 6 of 22 from three-point range.  They are 16-4 SU at home this season and Sacramento hasn't won here in their last 14 tries. 

Now these two teams did play a close game earlier this season here in OKC w/ the Thunder escaping w/ a 98-95 win as 11.5-pt chalk. But, as you can probably ascertain, the Thunder shot the ball unusually poorly in that one at just 40.7 percent overall including 6 for 22 from three-point range.  The Kings are unlikely to "get away" with that again, given what we are accustomed to seeing from them defensively. Note that during the 14-game losing streak here, the average margin of defeat has been by 12.3 points per game and last time they did trail by as many as 17 before rallying to make it close. The Thunder, unlike the Kings, can play some defense and they will help here in what should be a blowout victory. 8* Oklahoma City

6* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Both of these teams are struggling right now. Ottawa has dropped five of six, including three straight ugly decisions where they've been outscored 13-3. They've been shutout in the last two, the more recent being in Chicago last night.  So this is hardly an ideal spot having to come back w/o rest to play what is likely to be a highly motivated St. Louis club tonight. The Blues have dropped B2B games themselves, 3-1 here at home to Minnesota and then 4-1 at Toronto. But they had Sunday off and should be the more "ready to roll" side here. Plus, they are 7-1 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. The Senators, meanwhile, are a woeful 1-5 SU in the 2nd game of a back to back.

I'm not really sold on Ottawa, who has slid to sixth in the very competitive Atlantic Division. For much of the season, goaltending was the primary concern as this is a team that ranks 26th in the league in goals allowed per game (2.9) and that has a lot to do w/ the fact no team allows more shots per game (33.7), which is always problematic. On the road this season, they are being outshot, on average, by eight attempts per game.  Not surprisingly, they've now lost seven in a row away from home. But lately, lack of offense has been the culprit as they've gone B2B games w/o scoring. Facing a Blues team that is top 10 in goals allowed (just 2.2 goals per game allowed at home) isn't likely to bring any kind of resurgence on that end of the ice.

With St. Louis, their only goals scored in the L2 games both came on the power play. But special teams could be a huge advantage for them in this matchup considering they rank 6th on the power play (21.4 percent) and 2nd in penalty killing (86.3 percent) while the Sens are just 21st and 28th respectively in those two key categories. Somehow, Ottawa has managed to win 8 of its previous 11 visits to the Gateway City. But I look for that to change tonight as the situation is quite favorable for St. Louis, who was still able to register a total of 74 shots in the L2 games. That sounds promising going up against this leaky Ottawa defense. 6* St. Louis

10* TCU (7:00 ET):  TCU obviously treated me very well over the weekend w/ the football team providing a thrilling, *10* Game of the Year winner over Oregon in the Alamo Bowl. Now, let's see what the basketball program can do. The Horned Frogs are catching West Virginia playing a third consecutive road game (in less than a week) and I feel the 19th ranked (will move up when new rankings come out later today) Mountaineers are ripe to be upset in this spot. They were lucky to escape Manhattan with a win Saturday, needing double overtime to beat Kansas State, 87-83.  WVU still only has the one loss (neutral court vs. Virginia), but as I've written about previously I'm concerned over their field goal defense as their opponents' shooting percentages are unsustainable. Take the points.

TCU is off a pretty ugly loss to Oklahoma State (on the road) by 21 points. For the second straight road game, the Horned Frogs shot the ball terribly. They finished the game vs. OSU at only 30 percent overall, including a horrible 1 for 17 from three-point range. That sounds a lot like previous West Virginia opponents as the Mounties still sport the top 3-pt FG% defense in the country (23.7%!) and overall teams are shooting just 41.5% against them. This sounds like a "perfect storm" for the favorite, but I go back to the concept of "unsustainability."  TCU is highly unlikely to shoot the ball as poorly here (back at home) while moving forward I'm sure we're going to see teams make more shots against WVU, particularly from three-point range.

Note that TCU actually only trailed by two at halftime against Oklahoma State. Their starting five combined to score only 20 points, so again, improvement is "in the cards" tonight. The Horned Frogs play much better defense at home (63.9 PPG allowed) and were able to stay within five points of (still) unbeaten SMU here in Ft. Worth.  Meanwhile, WVU didn't do its usual good job on the boards or forcing turnovers Saturday at Kansas State, a game they trailed much of the way. Their own three-point shooting has been pretty atrocious (22.1% outside of Morgantown) and this will probably end up as a fairly low-scoring affair where points are at a premium. That makes taking the 'dog the way to go. 10* TCU

10* Phoenix (9:35 ET):  The Suns have become somewhat of an embarrassment, losing eight straight, including 142-119 yday in Sacramento. HC Jeff Hornacek's job appears to be in major jeopardy right now at a time the team isn't necessarily healthy (PG Eric Bledsoe out for season). But most embarrassing of all is the fact they check in as a virtual "Pick em" against the lousy Lakers Sunday night. Going by my own power ratings, there's only one team in the league that the Lakers should be favored against and that's the one they played their last time out, Philadelphia.  I feel that the line for this game is a massive overreaction to recent events and that the embattled Suns are actually a solid value in this spot.  Take them. 

After beating the Sixers 93-84 Friday night, the Lakers have now won consecutive games for the first time all season (beat Boston as 14-pt dogs on NYE). What are the chances they make it three in a row? Not good, in my opinion. Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable (shoulder) here after missing the Sixers game. Without Kobe, the Lakers turned in arguably their finest effort on the defensive end of the floor all season against Philly, holding them to just 36.9 percent shooting. But take that number w/ a grain of salt as we know that the Sixers are dead last in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS L3 seasons after allowing 85 pts or less.   Phoenix, for all their issues, can still score as they average a solid 102.1 PPG. They whipped LA, 120-101, in the season's first meeting, improving them to 8-1 SU (6-2-1 ATS) their last nine games vs. the Lakers.

Now, it is obvious that the Suns need to start showing some pride on the defensive end of the floor. Yesterday was a disaster in every sense of the word as they allowed the most points in a non-overtime game since 1990. Sacramento shot better than 60 percent (!) for the game. But Tyson Chandler (best defensive player) getting ejected in the third quarter had something to do w/ that as the Kings would go on to score an astounding 83 points in the second half. After suffering such an embarrassing loss, I believe that Phoenix will show a little bit of pride here and they are undervalued being that they are in the second night of a B2B (played early yday though).  10* Phoenix

8* Anaheim (9:05 ET): Every time you think that the Ducks are about to "get going," they drop a game unexpectedly. Case in point, they arrived in Vancouver two nights ago having won three in a row, but failed to make it a clean sweep through Western Canada (previously won at both Calgary and Edmonton) as they dropped a game to the struggling Canucks, 2-1 in a shootout. Scoring remains an issue "on the pond" as the Ducks rank dead last in the league in goals per game (1.8) and they've totaled just three in their last three games (two shutout victories). But I still like their chances tonight, back at home, against last place Winnipeg. The Jets are caught playing in the second game of a back to back (beat San Jose 4-1 last night) and their third road game in four nights. 

Playing w/o rest has not treated the Jets well this season as they are 2-6 SU in that situation. Nor have they fared well in the past against Anaheim, dropping nine of the last 10 overall meetings, including a four-game sweep in the playoffs last year. This also hasn't been a good road team either as Saturday's win snapped a six-game losing skid away from home. The back to back situation really hurts them between the pipes as well w/ the struggling Michael Hutchinson likely having to be called back into duty. He has a 3.79 goals against average his last seven starts, all losses, and an .897 save percentage on the road for the season. Recently, he had given way to Connor Hellebuyck, who had been playing much better. 

Meanwhile, there seems to be no such issue on goal for Anaheim, who will turn to John Gibson here. Because they were in the second game of a back to back New Year's night, Gibson was given the night off in the Ducks' eventual 2-1 loss to Vancouver. But they'll be thrilled to have him back on the ice as since being called up from the AHL, Gibson has turned in a 1.68 GAA in 14 starts (league best during that time!) w/ four shutouts.  Besides goaltending, another edge for the Ducks tonight resides w/ the respective penalty killing units. Anaheim is #1 in the league in that department (88.3 percent) while Winnipeg is just 25th (71.8 percent L10 games). The Jets' power play also ranks 29th and is just 1 for its last 21 on the road. So, all around it's massive edges in special teams and in goal for the home team here. 8* Anaheim

8* 1st Half Green Bay (8:30 ET):  Please note that this is a first half play only.  In handicapping the NFL, many times you have to take advantage of what the public saw the previous week and use it "against them."  Such is the case Sunday night when the NFC North champion will be decided at Lambeau Field as Minnesota takes on Green Bay.  The Vikings are coming off a high-profile, national TV win (played last Sunday night) over the Giants, whom they destroyed in grand fashion, 49-17 (as seven-point favorites). The Packers, on the other hand, were mauled by Arizona 38-8. The end result of those two very different games is that Green Bay is now available much cheaper than they would have been otherwise. Remember that they did beat the Vikings, in Minnesota, 30-13 last month. The line for that game was around a Pick 'Em, so judging by that standard laying anything less than a touchdown here seems like a bargain by comparison. 

Again, just to be clear, this is a first half play only. Green Bay clearly does have some offensive issues right now, but remember that going into the first game vs. Minnesota, they'd lost three in a row, including the previous week as double-digit home favorites to Detroit. Given what happened to the Packers last week, I expect them to come out strong on their home field tonight. For the season, these teams are eerily similar in scoring averages. Both average 10.3 points per game in the 1H. But here at home, the Packers' scoring average jumps to 14.0 PPG in the 1H.  Their defense has been surprisingly strong this year at Lambeau (16.7 PPG), particularly so in the 1st Half where they allow only 6.7 PPG. Back in that first meeting of the season, the Packers led 16-6 at halftime. 

In the cases of both of these teams last week, the games really didn't get out of hand until the second half. Minnesota, in fact, hardly even outgained the Giants for the game (were +3 in turnovers). The one knock against the Vikings is that they don't beat the good teams as they are just 1-4 SU against those who will be in the playoffs. QB Teddy Bridgewater, who threw for only 168 yds LW, has NEVER beaten a team w/ a winning record on the road. The Vikings offense is still somewhat one-dimensional and in that first meeting, the Packers did a great job at stopping Adrian Peterson, holding him to a season-low 45 yards. Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SU all-time vs. the Vikings and I'm calling for he and the Packers to get out to a strong start in this one. 8* 1st Half Green Bay

8* Louisville (8:00 ET):  There's a couple of reasons why this number has been bet down ever so slightly. One is that Louisville's Trey Lewis (transfer from Cleveland State) is expected to miss tonight's game. Lewis, the team's second leading scorer, will be missed but it is not as if his absence cannot be overcome.  The other factor that has some leaning towards the dog here is that Wake Forest is coming off an outright upset of Ben Simmons and LSU, 77-71 as seven-point dogs. They also played Xavier (at the time still unbeaten) very tough the game before that. But despite all that, I'm still expecting the Cardinals and their embattled head coach Rick Pitino to pull out a double-digit win in this spot. Lay the points.

We haven't seen Louisville since the day after Christmas when they played rival Kentucky. That final score of 75-73 really burned me as I was on UK laying 2.5 points.  The Cardinals trailed by as many as 16 points in the second half before making a furious rally. While I was critical of Louisville's early season schedule in my analysis of that game, the fact is their only two losses this season have come against Michigan State and Kentucky and were by a combined six points. They have had a ton of time to get over the loss to Kentucky here (full week off!). This team ranks #1 in the country in scoring differential (+27.7 points per game) thanks to a defense that is allowing just 57.4 PPG (2nd best in the country). They are also #1 in rebounding differential (+14.5 per game) and have already shot better than 50 percent in nine different games, which is one more time than they did all of last season.

Wake Forest, while much improved last year, is simply not in the same class as the teams that beat Louisville.  Danny Manning's Demon Deacons have also been a little fortunate in that they are 7-0 SU in games decided by six points or less. Last year saw them lose by 11 (as 12.5-pt dogs) at home to Louisville. Even factoring in Wake's improvement, this line should be several points higher given the change in venue. The Deacons are allowing a pretty woeful 78.1 PPG and haven't given up fewer than 70 in any game all season. I look for them to struggle offensively here and that will allow the home favorite to pull away late. 8* Louisville

10* Seattle (4:25 ET):  Count me among those on the Arizona Super Bowl bandwagon after they absolutely destroyed Green Bay last week, 38-8 here at home.  This is a team that now owns a point differential north of +200, which is quite the rarefied air. Only two teams this century have outscored their opponents by more than 200 points over the course of a single season and ironically, those two - the '01 Rams and '07 Patriots - both LOST in the Super Bowl. Speaking of Super Bowl losers, last year's is the opponent for the Cardinals this week and as impressive as Carson Palmer and company looked last week, I believe this line is inflated. Seattle should want to win this game as being the #5 seed means they would play Washington in the Wild Card Round next week and not the NFC North winner.  Take the points.

We saw this spread "shoot up" during the course of the week, not only as a result of Arizona's big win last week, but also Seattle losing outright to St. Louis. Furthermore, Carolina lost last week too, which gives the Cardinals an outside shot at earning home field advantage for the entire playoffs. But that "dream" scenario is just that and would require not only a win here by the Cards, but also a loss by the Panthers (at home) to Tampa Bay. I think there's a good chance that Arizona HC Bruce Arians looks up at the scoreboard on Sunday, sees Carolina ahead of Tampa Bay and then decides to rest his own starters. Just to get an idea of the kind of line value that's in play here, the advanced line for this game actually Arizona +2.5! 

Five of Seattle's six losses this year have come by seven points or fewer.  I know the tendency will be to knock them for losing last week at home to the Rams, but for whatever reason, Jeff Fisher just seems to have their number. Now, Arizona did go to Seattle and win 39-32 earlier this year. But still, I feel this line has been overadjusted for the rematch.  The Seahawks were a perfect 5-0 SU in revenge spots the L3 seasons (4-1 ATS) prior to last week's loss, which by the way is the ONLY game this season where the Seahawks never led.  They are not an underdog often and I feel it is appropriate here to take advantage as there's a good chance (that despite what they're saying) the Cardinals could be resting starters, Palmer especially, by the fourth quarter.  I say let's use last week's results to our advantage and grab a generous number. 10* Seattle

8* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET):  This is yet another game where we have a double digit favorite needing to win.  The chances of that result are likely, but the pointspread is again the "great equalizer" and in this instance it's yet another inflated number. Carolina suffered its first loss of the season last week (I went against them!) and now must avoid another here in order to preserve homefield advantage in the NFC.  The way I anticipate this game going is the Panthers getting out to a lead and then resting starters late. Of course, there is the fact that the previous five teams to all suffer their first loss of the season all lost their next game SU as well! Most recently, it was New England (as a DD fave) suffering a shocking loss at the hands of Philadelphia.  Take the points here.

I'm a little disappointed in Tampa Bay this season. Sure, they have improved dramatically from LY's disastrous 2-win campaign, but w/ the #1 overall draft pick (QB Jameis Winston), a natural improvement was to be expected. This team was 6-6 SU at one point, but they've since dropped three straight games, all of them close. Last week, it was a 26-21 loss (at home) to Chicago, leaving them needing this game to go Over their season win total (6.0), a bet I am on.  It should be noted that despite losing, the Bucs have outgained their previous two opponents and have now finished with the edge in total yardage in 11 of 15 games this season! Only two teams (Carolina being one of them) have outgained 12 opponents this year. Two weeks ago, this Bucs offense put up over 500 total yards in a 31-23 road loss to St. Louis. Last week, they put up 389, but were -3 in turnovers. Winston is going to finish with the third-most passing yards ever by a rookie and the team has suffered only two double digit losses (neither by more than 14 pts) since the first weekend of October.

These teams first met back in Week 4 and it was the Panthers prevailing by a score of 37-23. But that was yet another misleading final for the Buccaneers as they actually finished the game w/ a somewhat pronounced 411-244 edge in total yards (but were -4 in turnovers).  Winston is obviously more polished now than he was back then and it was two defensive TD's that accounted for the final margin back in Wk 4.  As I've mentioned previously, Carolina might have entered last week unbeaten, but they have surprisingly few blowout wins on their resume. Only three times this season have they prevailed by more than two touchdowns and we've started to see signs of their defensive regressing as well. The offense also misses RB Jonathan Stewart, who is out again this week. This will mark the ONLY time this season that they will be a double digit favorite. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Miami (1:00 ET):  The Dolphins figure to draw little in the way of support here as New England needs this game to clinch homefield advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs. But as a double-digit home dog, they do present some value as this line is clearly inflated due to the situation. Keep in mind that the Patriots could have clinched the #1 seed last week, but lost outright to the Jets. Now the Jets had something to play for themselves, which is not the case here w/ Miami, losers of six in a row ATS. But DD home dogs have been extraordinarily profitable through the years and as we saw w/ the Ravens last week, anything is possible. Since Week 16 of the 2012 season, the Patriots are just 1-6 ATS laying more than a touchdown on the road. That includes non-covers vs. the Colts and Giants earlier this year. Take the points.

Though Miami has pretty much been a disaster this year, they have a couple things going for them here. One is that this is the last chance for interim HC Dan Campbell (4-7 SU) to make an impression on ownership. Personally, I wouldn't hire him on a permanent basis, but you never know w/ this organization.  Two is that Miami always seems to play New England tough at home. In fact, they've beaten them outright each of the last two seasons here. This is actually the first time all season that the 'Fins are getting more than a touchdown from the oddsmakers, let alone double digits. Last week's 18-12 loss to Indianapolis was a tad bit misleading as the offense had three possessions inside the 10-yard line that did not result in a touchdown. For the game, they outgained the Colts, 361-268.   

New England is still a beat up football team. It has already been announced that Tom Brady's favorite target (besides Rob Gronkowski) Julian Edelman won't play again this week.  Of course, Edelman won't be the only key contributor missing. The team is down to its fourth string running back and OT Sebastian Vollmer is out as well. It's no wonder that the offense has failed to score 30 points seven of the last eight games.  On the defensive side of the ball, two linebackers (Dont'a Hightower & Jonathan Freeny) are out as is DE Chandler Jones, who leads the team in sacks w/ 12.5.  New England will still find a way to win here, but even if they do build any kind of lead, the back door will almost certainly be open for the Dolphins. 8* Miami

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET):  This play is a "cousin" to the one on New England-Miami.  Once again, we have a double digit home dog due to the other side needing to win here for playoff purposes. In this case, Pittsburgh not only needs to beat Cleveland to make the playoffs, but also have the Jets lose to the Bills. They find themselves in this situation due to suffering one of the most unfathomable losses of the entire NFL season last week, a 20-17 loss in Baltimore as a double-digit favorite. Those of you who may be thinking lightning can't possibly "strike twice," take note of the Steelers' horrific 0-9 ATS record (since 2008) when asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road. Going back even further (to '93), they are 0-7 ATS as a DD road favorite. Again, while you are always taking an unpopular team (like the Browns here), historically DD home dogs have been very profitable.  Take the points.

This will actually be the third consecutive week that Cleveland checks in as a double digit dogs. Such an occurrence is really rare.  They cashed for me last week in Kansas City, who along w/ Pittsburgh, was considered one of the two hottest teams in the entire AFC.  Really, the Browns probably should have beaten the Chiefs.  They outgained them (368-258) in the 17-13 loss and allowed just one offensive touchdown. Now, they won't have Johnny Manziel in the lineup this week, but will his 136 passing yards (13 of 32!) really be missed? I realize that Austin Davis was a disaster in his one start (37-3 loss to Cincinnati), but I don't think that he'll be that bad again here. Also, HC Mike Pettine is likely coaching for his job here and cannot lose in blowout fashion.

If the Steelers do not end up making the playoffs, they only have themselves to blame for last week's dismal showing in Baltimore. There was really nothing phony about it either. They were outgained 386-308 (were -3 in turnovers) and Ben Roethlisberger was only 3 of 11 for 60 yards (w/ 2 INT's) on passes that went longer than 15 yards.  Yes, it's easy to say Pittsburgh will bounce back, but what if they look at the scoreboard and see the Jets winning big in Buffalo?  Their motivation then takes a giant hit as they don't control their own destiny and as is the case w/ Miami, at the very worst the backdoor is likely to be open here. The Browns would love to spoil their rival's playoff hopes. 8* Cleveland

10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Despite having started FOUR different quarterbacks this year, Houston is a virtual lock to win the AFC South. It would take an incredible confluence of events for them NOT to end up in first place in the division and it helps that the team chasing them (Indianapolis) appears likely to fire its head coach Sunday. So what I'm saying here is that the Texans' motivation might not be as high as is assumed in this spot. They are starting Brian Hoyer, fresh off a concussion.  Meanwhile, QB is not an issue for their division rival and opponent this week. Jacksonville's Blake Bortles has thrown 35 touchdown passes this year (franchise record) and is closing in on another franchise record for most passing yards in a single season. Despite just five wins this season (their most since 2011), the Jaguars are better than you think (outgained 8 of 15 opponents) and are worthy of taking the points.

As is the case w/ every game on the Week 17 slate, this is a divisional rematch. Early in the season, Houston beat Jacksonville at home, 31-20. But the Jags were -3 in turnovers in that matchup and actually had a 14-10 lead entering the fourth quarter. It was yet another game where they held the edge in total yards yet lost. At the time, the team stood at 1-5 SU and HC Gus Bradley's (already assured of coming back next year) future seemed to be in doubt. But they would go on to win three of their next four (4-0 ATS).  They've since dropped four of five (did beat Indianapolis 51-17), but other than LW's poor defensive showing vs. New Orleans, every other Jacksonville loss since the first Houston game has been by six points or less.

Unlike the Saints, the Texans do not have an offense or specifically a quarterback to put up a lot of points. I think that Hoyer is a huge question mark coming into this game.  Surprising is the fact the Texans are 4-1 ATS as a favorites this year, but they've also never been asked to lay more than six points.  A dominating 34-6 win over the sorry Titans (worst record in the league), along with the perceived "must win" spot, have conspired to inflate this number a bit.  Jacksonville has the edge offensively here and I look for them to bounce back from a couple of disappointing showings the L2 weeks w/ a strong effort here. The Texans are a team that have outscored opponents by only two points all year and that's after LW's rout. They are almost certainly in the playoffs, win or lose here, which will hurt their motivation. 10* Jacksonville

8* Over 1.5 Rounds Tumenov vs. Larkin (11:00 ET):  This is a Welterweight fight (170lbs) where Albert Tumenov, a Russian boxer, is a 2:1 favorite. However, I look for tonight to be a little tougher than expected as underdog Lorenz Larkin will be willing to stand with him and is adept at avoiding takedowns.  Because he can avoid being taken down and at the same time isn't very good on the ground himself, Larkin is an opponent that can take Tumenov the distance, which is something we don't see too often. Only two of Tumenov's last 10 fights have gone to the cards, but five of those were pre-UFC and early in his career, the majority of his fights went the distance. Note that we only need this fight to last two rounds to punch a winning ticket and I don't think that's asking too much.  Take the Over (1.5 rounds) here.

Tumenov is on a four-fight win streak and has finished three of those opponents in the first round. We last saw him in October where he made short work of Alan Jouban, overwhelming him from the start with punches.  But don't expect Larkin to take that kind of punishment here. In fact, this will be more of a "defensive fight" where both competitors will be leery of the other's striking ability. I do not anticipate things going to the ground much, if at all. Larkin is clearly more adept than Jouban at avoiding getting hit and he won't be taken down easily either.

Larkin is a fighter that likes to rely on a "home run shot," which is somewhat of a low percentage strategy.  A former light heavyweight (dropped two weight classes), he has retained much of his power at 170, but I wonder if he'll get much of a chance to use it here. He likes to employ a lot of leg kicks, an attack that I always approve of, but Tumenov is skilled enough to avoid those. Again, this is a fight that will be largely contested standing and I don't see either fighter connecting as much as they'd like. Before picking up B2B TKO wins over John Howard and Santiago Ponzinibbio last year, we saw five of Larkin's previous six fights go the distance.  He has been stopped only one time in the Octagon, by Costas Philippou, back in May of 2014.  The likelihood of this fight going at least two rounds and possibly the distance is pretty strong.  8* Over 1.5 Rounds Tumenov vs. Larkin

8* San Diego (10:00 ET):  Needless to say, St. Mary's has been a major surprise so far this year. Not just because the Gaels are a perfect 10-0 against the spread (NCAA best), but that they've been winning so comfortably despite losing LY's best player, Brad Waldow, who was thought to be somewhat irreplaceable. Still though, I am expecting this run of theirs to "flatline" a little bit and after picking up a big home win over BYU on New Year's Eve (got me), I see SMC struggling to cover what is a huge number against San Diego. The underdog Toreros are off loss (by two at Pacific), which dropped them to 5-7 SU on the season, but typically play the Gaels tough and I expect this to be another hard-fought WCC matchup.  Take the points.

The Gaels are the only team in the country to have played more than four lined games and not suffer a single ATS defeat. The only teams close to them in the overall ATS standings are IUPUI-Ft Wayne (9-1) and Purdue (8-2).  History and common sense are both against St. Mary's now as there is simply no way they will continue to cover every game. The spreads will only continue to increase and in fact what we have here is the largest opening spread for any SMC game all season.  New Year's Eve against BYU saw the Gaels catch a break, at least early, as the Cougars opened the game a woeful 2 for 14 from the field. At halftime, they were at only 28 percent. Yet, it took St. Mary's own 56.4% shooting and a late run to cover the spread.

The Gaels have also been fortunate that most of their recent opponents have shot the ball exceedingly bad.  Even before BYU, three of the last four teams they faced were below 29 percent for the game! At the same time, they themselves have been at 56 percent or better in four of the last six games.  This insane discrepancy has to stop! Of course, San Diego only shot 34.4% from the field in its last game, while allowing Pacific to shoot 54.9 percent, but again they lost by only two (scored 50 pts in the second half!). Overall, the Toreros have covered the spread in four of their last five games, including an outright upset of San Diego State as 16.5-pt dogs on December 6th. Their head coach, Lamont Smith, is a former assistant here at SMC, so you know that this game will mean a lot to him and thus his players as well. 8* San Diego

10* LSU (9:00 ET):  One of College Basketball's biggest disappointments thus far has to reside in Baton Rouge where despite having the most "pro-ready" talent in the country, LSU is only 3-7 against the spread and an even more perplexing 7-5 straight up. Ben Simmons' (aka the "next LeBron") talents are being wasted right now as the team is off an outright loss at home (as 7-pt favorites) to Wake Forest earlier in the week and right now it is far from guaranteed that the Tigers would even make the NCAA Tournament. What a shame that would be. However, what "catches my eye" here is that tonight marks the first real time the Bayou Bengals are clearly the underdogs going into a game this season. I think that that also means for the first time, they are a good value. I'm taking the points in this SEC opener.

Vanderbilt had dropped four of six games prior to an easy win over Western Michigan here at home on Tuesday.  Those losses were all against good teams, including Kansas and Purdue, and for the most part were close. But still, I don't think the Commies deserve to be laying this many points.  They did lose outright as nine-point home favorites to Dayton last month and while they're 6-0 SU/ATS otherwise in the chalk role, many of the other teams that have come calling to Nashville were clearly overmatched. LSU won't be and in fact the Tigers have beaten Vandy three straight times, the last two coming here at Memorial Gym.  Those wins were both close and now w/ Simmons in the fold, another close game is what I expect in this spot. 

Simmons took only eight shots in the loss to Wake Forest, which is ridiculous. He still scored 21 points mind you and is averaging 19.3 points as well as 13 rebounds per game. I'd actually like to see him start to become a little more "selfish" moving forward while still maintaining his current average of 5.5 assists per game. Leading his team in virtually every offensive category, it's obvious who will be the best player on the court Saturday night.  The key here will be LSU getting their defense (allowing 76.2 PPG) on track. But at the same time, Vandy has enjoyed far too good of fortune when it comes to three-point shooting this year as they are making 40.2 percent of their attempts while opponents are at only 27.1 percent. That large discrepancy is due to start regressing to the mean. 10* LSU

8* Over Pelicans/Mavericks (8:35 ET):  Obviously, I've had a pretty good "pulse" on this Dallas team of late. I jumped all over them when they got to host Golden State (who was w/o Steph Curry) and the end result there was a very impressive 114-91 win and cover. But last night saw them make the trip down to South Beach and I was all over the Heat, who prevailed 106-82 as a short-favorite. I anticipate everyone will be calling for the Mavs to bounce back tonight as they host lowly New Orleans, but I believe the better play is on the total. Surprisingly, these have been two Under teams, at least when the Pelicans are on the road and the Mavs at home. But considering the way the last matchup went (120-105 final score...in favor of New Orleans!), the elements are present here for another Over to cash. 

The Pelicans' 15-3 Under record really surprises me. By any metric, this has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league all season. They give up 106.6 points per game (tied for 29th) and are also 29th in efficiency (only Lakers are worse). They'll likely struggle here to slow down a Dallas offense that averages 102.1 PPG at home and is due to improve from last night's dismal showing in Miami where they shot just 36.4 percent. In two previous meetings this season, the Mavs have averaged 106 PPG against the Pelicans. Of particular interest to me is that tonight's total is several points lower than what it was for those first two matchups, despite the last one seeing 235 combined points.

New Orleans has been held under 90 points in three of its last four games.  That might sound bad when you consider Dallas is allowing only 91.7 PPG here at home where the Under is 11-4, but the Pelicans did put up 120 points the last time these two met. That's actually been "par for the course" for them as they average 106.2 PPG in division games (give up 105.2). Somehow they lost to the Clippers their last time out (I did go against them!) despite allowing just 38.9 percent shooting. They probably aren't going to be that fortunate again here. At the same time, Dallas allowed 56.1 percent shooting to Miami last night, so I see some all around improvement offensively in this one. 8* Over Pelicans/Mavericks

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  The T'wolves have been just horrible at home this season, winning only 5 of 17 games and the results at the betting window have been even worse w/ a 3-13-1 ATS mark. But they did win their last time here, 94-80 over a pretty decent Utah squad (as four-point chalk) and curiously the asking price isn't nearly as high tonight as they welcome in a Milwaukee team that's been bad all season away from home (4-15 SU), even though they did win at Indiana (as six-point pups) New Year's Eve. Now Minnesota did lose on NYE (115-90 at Detroit), but that doesn't justify this line IMO as the T'wolves look like an excellent value going up against a team that allows 106.3 points per game away from home. Lay the number.

The Bucks couldn't miss two nights ago in Indiana, finishing the game w/ a 58.4% overall shooting percentage. The last time they shot that well actually wasn't that long ago as on December 23rd, they shot 60%, albeit against Philadelphia. But of note here is the fact the following game saw Milwaukee shoot only 42 percent in a blowout (111-90) loss to Toronto. The team would go on to lose its next two games as well, both on the road, before beating the Pacers. That win over Indiana was rare not just because it was on the road, but because it was the first time in nine games this season that they won despite allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or better. They caught the Pacers off an overtime loss the night prior and 20 turnovers turned into 35 Bucks' points. All five Milwaukee starters scored in double figures and totaled 95 points. I would not expect a repeat performance here.

Despite winning their last game, the Bucks are still one of the worst teams in the league. Only three teams (Brooklyn, Lakers, Philadelphia) have a worse scoring differential and the team ranks 28th in terms of defensive efficiency. They still allowed 116 points to the Pacers and that was just their third win in 20 games this season when allowing 100+ points. Minnesota does average triple digits (100.1 PPG) even though they have failed to top 100 in six consecutive games. With double revenge from LY and a disappointing home record thus far, it's "just due" time tonight for the T'wolves, who should be favored by more here. 8* Minnesota

10* Orlando (7:35 ET):  I often state that teams playing in the second of back to back games are undervalued, especially when playing on the road. Such is the case here w/ Orlando, who is coming off a disappointing 103-91 loss yday in Washington. But the Magic remain the most profitable team to bet on in the Eastern Conference (at 65.6%, 21-11-1 ATS for the year) and are a good value tonight getting this many points against a Cleveland team still trying to integrate Kyrie Irving back into the lineup. The Cavs have not been a good team to bet on this year as they are only 12-17-1 at the betting window. When these teams first met this season, Orlando was in a bad spot as they had just returned home after a five-game West Coast swing. Now, the proverbial shoe is "on the other foot."  Take the points.

I haven't played on or against Cleveland since X-Mas Day when they opened a tough four-game in five-day stretch w/ a 89-83 loss (+7) at Golden State. Had they not shot the ball so poorly (31.6% overall!), they could have won the NBA Finals rematch. After getting routed in a bad spot (the next night) in Portland, the Cavs concluded their road trip w/ B2B wins over Denver and Phoenix, but neither win was particular impressive (both by 6 pts or less) as those are two bad teams. Defense is bailing out LeBron and company right now as they are actually one of the bottom two teams in the league in points scored per game since December 13th! That's played a significant role in the team going just 9-16 ATS when favored this season, including 1-4 at home when laying between 6.5 and 9 points. Returning home after a long trip, particularly one that coincided w/ the holidays, is always a tough spot and I expect Cleveland to struggle here.

Incredibly, the Cavs are 9-0 SU and ATS the L9 meetings with Orlando (2-0 this year). In both meetings this season, Cleveland has shot the ball remarkably well. In fact the last time saw them shoot a season-best 56.9 percent from the floor in a 111-76 rout. The Magic's two worst defensive performances of the season (in terms of field goal percentage allowed) have come against the Cavs, but despite that and that they failed to snap a long losing streak (10 games) to another foe last night (Washington), I expect them to break through w/ at least a cover tonight. It was a tie game w/ the Wizards last night entering the 4th quarter, so the fact they ended up losing by 12 points is a tad bit misleading. The Magic are 4-1 ATS playing in the second of B2B games and only once this season have they gone three or more consecutive games w/o covering (off B2B ATS losses here). 10* Orlando

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  The Lightning have been a massive disappointment so far, particularly here on home ice where they are only 9-8-2. Tonight marks the end of what should have been a profitable six-game homestand for the club, yet instead we find TB having lost three of its last four, including two straight. The Rangers beat them 5-2 on Wednesday, thanks to a 3-0 edge in goals in the third period. While there is some question over whether or not Ben Bishop will be between the pipes here, I like Tampa Bay regardless to get back on track. This team has far too much talent to continue losing like this and I think this is a great price to "get down" on as Minnesota is not a great road team.

We already know that the Wild are forced to continue leaning on Devan Dubnyk as Darcy Keumper remains out indefinitely. Dubnyk led the way in Minnesota's 1-0 win (at home) over Tampa Bay last month, making 31 saves in the shutout.  But the Wild should have felt lucky to win that game as they were outshot.  Also, home ice has been a huge determining factor in the past when these two teams meet as hosts have won the last six meetings. Minnesota has lost 10 of its 16 road games this year even after winning in St. Louis on New Year's Eve. That's significantly worse than the team's 14-5-1 home record, so once again the home-road dichotomy should come into play here. Note that the Wild have not won B2B road games all season.

Minnesota was outshot Wednesday in St. Louis, 34-29, yet still pulled out the victory despite not having LW Zach Parise (could return tonight). Note that the third goal they scored came on an empty net, so the final score is a tad bit misleading as well.  As for TB, I imagine that they are likely to improve upon their total of only 22 shots in the last game as this team simply has too much offensive talent to be floundering on the fringes of playoff contention like they are. One big edge for them tonight could reside on the power play where they've gone 9 for their last 29. Minnesota ranks a very poor 27th in the league in penalty killing (77.3 percent).  8* Tampa Bay

10* TCU (6:45 ET):  Obviously, I was not happy to wake up Thursday morning to find that Horned Frogs' quarterback Trevone Boykin had been arrested and now won't play in the Alamo Bowl against Oregon.  However, despite the disconcerting news, this IS still a play for me and I'm sticking with TCU.  The coaching edge that resides on the Horned Frogs' sideline becomes even more important now and I expect HC Gary Patterson to "rally the troops" around this latest adversity. That adversity obviously had an immediate impact on this line and I would say that the oddsmakers moving it by a full touchdown is a classic overadjustment (and it's likely to be bet up even higher).  Take advantage by taking the points in this one as it's a game I still feel TCU can win outright.

If you need your faith restored here, there are two recent happenings that should have you still believing in the Horned Frogs' chances.  One is their own near upset of Oklahoma (in Norman) late in the regular season.  TCU didn't have Boykin in that game and was a huge 17.5-point dog, yet they were a failed two-point conversion away from winning outright despite turning the ball over five times. Remember that they didn't even need to go for two in that situation (XP would have forced OT), but Patterson figured his team had a better shot to win the game there then in OT. The only other loss TCU experienced this year was to Oklahoma State, a game they had a 663-456 edge in total yards (but were a killer -4 in turnovers). This is a good, well-coached football team. By the way, the second recent happening that I referenced earlier in the paragraph was Baylor's 49-38 win over North Carolina in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Playing even more shorthanded than TCU will be here, the Bears (TCU's biggest rival) ran wild in that game, gaining nearly 800 total yards.

TCU can still have a big offensive day here thanks to what is a very leaky Oregon defense, one that permits 36.7 points and 480 yards per game. While the Ducks arrive at the Alamo having won six in a row, they allowed 42 points in the regular season finale to Oregon State, as a 34.5-point favorite. Somehow this team was able to win three games this year while allowing 500 or more yards (including 742 in a 61-55 win over Arizona State!). Much has been made of how "well" this team has performed since QB Vernon Adams Jr returned, and while that's true for the offense, the defense remains awful. Meanwhile, I think TCU's defense got better as the season went on and I will again point to the huge coaching edge the Horned Frogs have here w/ Patterson (7-0 ATS off a bye!) over Mark Helfrich, who has the unenviable task of now having to deal with a possibly overconfident team.  The special teams edge also goes to the Horned Frogs here. 10* TCU

8* Penn State (12:00 ET):  I realize that the old Big 10 vs. SEC narrative is likely to start "rearing its ugly head" again in the wake of Michigan State and Northwestern getting throttled by Alabama and Tennessee respectively. (You also had another Big 10 team, Iowa, get humiliated in the Rose Bowl).  But, at the same time, let us not forget that the Michigan pulled its own weight in a 41-7 whitewashing of Florida, plus Ohio State won yday as well. The SEC is favored in this one, but given the current state of the Georgia program, I'm not sure the 'Dawgs to deserve to be. As you know, long-time HC Mark Richt is gone (fired), but so too are both the offensive and defensive coordinators. I'm not convinced that an interim staff is going to be very motivated in what has to be viewed by the UGA players as a disappointing place to end their season.  Take the points.

Georgia's next head coach will be Kirby Smart, who is currently busy being the defensive coordinator at Alabama and preparing for next week's National Championship Game. Receivers coach Bryan McClendon has the unenviable task of being the interim HC for this game, getting the gig practically by default. Even the linebackers coach is gone. McClendon has no idea if he'll even be retained by the incoming staff! Of course, it's not like many were stepping up to coach this underachieving bunch Saturday in Tampa. This is a team w/ just one win by greater than seven points since September. They very nearly lost outright to Georgia Southern late in the year as 13-pt favorites. Wins over Georgia Tech, Auburn and Missouri, two of which weren't even bowl teams, were similarly ugly. In half of the team's previous eight games, the offense scored 13 pts or less. 

Meanwhile, I anticipate Penn State will be highly motivated for this matchup as James Franklin wraps up his second season in Happy Valley. His QB Christian Hackenberg will be looking to make a strong impression on NFL scouts in this game as he's likely headed for the Draft. In a game where points figure to be at a premium, taking the team getting points w/ the better QB seems like a 'no-brainer.' Also, the Nittany Lions will be looking to erase an ugly three-game losing streak at the end of the regular season. Note they fall into a pretty simple system that says bowlers on a losing streak of 3+ games are 27-15 against the spread.  I realize that favorites had their day to open 2016, but this is an underdog w/ a very good chance of pulling an outright upset. 8* Penn State

10* Over Ducks/Canucks (10:05 ET):  Anaheim, a disappointment for much of the season, looks to make it a 3-0 sweep through Western Canada tonight in Vancouver. The Ducks are off B2B 1-0 wins over Calgary and Edmonton, the latter coming last night, where they somehow allowed just 35 shots total in the two games! That's huge for a team that ranks 30th in the league in scoring at 1.9 goals per game. The emergence of goaltender John Gibson has been huge as well, though let's note that this is the first time in franchise history where the Ducks have posted consecutive shutouts on the road. Therefore, despite this looking like a pretty favorable matchup against the similarly punchless Canucks, don't be surprised when more goals are scored here than expected.  Take the Over.

Vancouver was shut out in its last game, which took place all the way back on Monday in Los Angeles. The result there was 5-0, so they are not getting the same kind of goaltending Anaheim is right now, although the Canucks were coming off B2B 2-1 victories going into that last game. But they are just 22nd in the league in goals allowed per game as Ryan Miller had been especially bad his L4 starts w/ an .881 save percentage. But he's been hurt, so it looks like it might be Jacob Markstrom between the pipes again tonight. That's just fine as he has a similarly bad .887 save percentage here at home this season. Anaheim has had no problem scoring in recent visits to Vancouver, averaging 3.8 goals per game their L10 games here.

The red-hot Gibson, because this is the second game of a back to back, isn't likely to be the one in goal for the Ducks. Chalk that up as a break for the home team in this one. Gibson has been outstanding ever since getting called up from the AHL as he's turned in a 1.67 goals against average since November 24th (1st in the league during that time). Instead, Frederik Andersen will probably be between the pipes and over his L4 starts he's been downright hideous w/ an awful .841 save percentage.  Needless to say, that's a significant downgrade. The Over is 4-1 this season in Vancouver home games when the total is 5.0.  10* Over Ducks/Canucks

8* Stanford (9:00 ET): We're into conference play now in College Hoops and in the Pac 12 we have just two teams ranked in both Top 25 polls. One is obviously conference favorite Arizona, who is in the top 10, and the other is Utah. But despite having a win over Duke (on a neutral floor), I'm not entirely sold on the Runnin' Utes ranking in the polls (21st AP, 22nd Coaches). That win over the Blue Devils was the first game Coach K's team played w/o Amile Jefferson and the game still went to overtime despite Duke shooting only 29.9 percent from the field. The Utes have been blown out twice this year, first by Miami and then by Wichita State and tonight marks their first "true" road game of the season. Take the points.

Stanford is only 7-4 SU coming into tonight, but the teams they've lost to are all very good. An early season three-game losing streak came at the hands of SMU, St. Mary's and Villanova. They also lost by only two to Texas here in Palo Alto on December 19th. Since that time, they've bounced back w/ B2B lopsided wins against overmatched foes.  While perhaps not even considered a "second-tier" Pac 12 team entering conference play, I anticipate the Cardinal giving the Utes plenty of problems in tonight's matchup. They average 78.1 PPG at home and are led by sophomore Dorian Pickens, who is averaging 19.5 PPG the L4 games thanks to a 15 of 28 mark from behind the arc. This is also a double revenge spot for Stanford, who didn't get to host Utah LY, losing to them on the road and at a neutral setting (Pac 12 Tournament) by a combined 40 points. 

Recent history shows that Utah typically struggles on the road. They did go 5-4 SU away from home last season in conference play, which is by far their best effort in four seasons as the previous three saw them go a combined 3-24! Again, this is the team's first "true" road game of the year, though they did play Wichita State in the Shockers' own holiday tournament and the result there was a 17-point loss. The Utes also struggled their last time out, despite facing a NAIA opponent (College of Idaho), as they actually trailed 16-2 right out of the gate. They have NEVER won here in Palo Alto since joining the conference.  8* Stanford

10* Oklahoma State (8:00 ET):  The Sugar Bowl, which is the SEC's "tie-in" for the New Year's Six has not treated the conference well in recent times as members have gone 0-4 SU the last five years. That includes back to back losses by Alabama. Now Ole Miss should be thrilled be to here, but there is the fact that the Rebels were destroyed by a Big 12 team last year (42-3 by TCU) in the Peach Bowl.  With so many players likely to be drafted early by the NFL next spring, I'm not sure winning this game is going to be priority #1 for many of the players (we already know that one won't even be playing!). Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is going to be angry here as they ended their regular season w/ B2B losses following 10-0 SU start.  I like the Pokes plus the points New Year's night and would not be surprised if they pulled off an outright upset.

Ole Miss is the one team that beat Alabama. But they also suffered outright defeats at the hands of Florida, Memphis and Arkansas.  All three of those games saw the Rebels favored by at least a touchdown. It should be noted that in the upset win over Bama, the Rebels were the beneficiaries of a +5 turnover margin and the defense actually gave up over 500 total yards. It was a similar situation in a late season win over LSU as the defense again allowed 500+ yards, but the turnover margin was "in the black."  Simply put, if Oklahoma State's offense, which averages 41.2 points and 489 yards per game, holds onto the football, they should have no problem moving the ball and scoring here.

One of the Rebels' marquee players will not be joining them in the New Orleans and that's Robert Nkemdiche, who happens to be their best defensive player. A projected high draft pick, Nkemdiche was charged with marijuana possession earlier this month and in this case the Rebels loss will be the Cowboys gain. I already talked about OSU's impressive numbers. Though everyone remembers them getting blown out by Oklahoma in the regular season finale, total yardage for that game was surprisingly even. I anticipate the Pokes being the more motivated side here in their first major bowl game since 2011. I also think it's a big disadvantage that Ole Miss has to prepare for two quarterbacks.  10* Oklahoma State

10* Miami (7:30 ET): The Heat ended 2015 on a bit of a downer as they lost B2B games, outright, to Brooklyn and Memphis.  The latter came in overtime and saw the team still only score 90 points for the game, despite a 30-point 1st quarter! It was also just their second loss to a Western Conference foe this season (9-2 SU) as I'll once again mention the shift in the balance of power that's going on between the NBA's two conferences, at least in terms of depth. Back at home on New Year's Day, I look for Miami to bounce back and I like them laying only a short number against a Dallas club that's probably feeling pretty good about itself after routing Golden State (no Steph Curry) two nights ago. I'm on the favorite here.

The Mavs arrive in South Beach having won four straight, but the last three have all come at home. I was on them Wednesday as they took advantage of the Curry-less Warriors, winning 114-91.  It all went right for Dallas there and needless to say I think that Golden State was a little "shell-shocked" over not having the MVP.  The Mavs are one of just five Western Conference teams to have a positive point differential this season, but on the road they struggle, giving up 103.9 points per game. Their last three road games have resulted in two losses to Eastern Conference teams comparable to Miami, those being Indiana & Toronto, plus only a one-point win (OT) over lowly Brooklyn.  This shapes us as a proverbial letdown spot.

One clear advantage that Miami has coming into this matchup is on the defensive end of the floor. They allow only 95.5 PPG, which is the third best average in the league, trailing only San Antonio and Cleveland.  Therefore, I expect an across the board decline for the Mavericks here from their last game when they shot better than 51% overall, including 14 for 27 from three-point range.  Dallas has been scoring well above their season average the L4 games, so they are due for a little "market correction" regardless.  Lost during this win streak of theirs is the fact PG Deron Williams remains out.  JJ Barea cannot possibly continue shooting the ball as well as he has (63% from 3-pt range) these L4 games. The Heat have lost three straight games only one time all season. 10* Miami

8* Florida (1:00 ET): The Citrus Bowl seems destined to be a pretty even, low-scoring matchup to me, so naturally taking the points would be the way to go.  Michigan REALLY let me down in its regular season finale, experiencing a horrible 42-13 loss to rival Ohio State. I think that even w/ all the time off, it will be difficult to overcome the disappointment of that loss. Meanwhile, Florida cashed for me in its last game, that being the SEC Championship against Alabama. Points will be hard to come by in this one as both defenses are allowing fewer than 17.5 points per game. However, a key might be that Michigan lost its defensive coordinator, D.J. Durkin, to the head coaching job at Maryland.  Take the points.

Florida isn't getting much respect at all from bettors in this one.  Yet, the line really hasn't moved, so that should tell you something right there. Michigan lost to the three best teams on its schedule - Utah, Michigan State & Ohio State - remember.  The Maize and Blue do own two wins over teams that were ranked at the time, but it turns out that both BYU and Northwestern are overrated. The defense also regressed some down the stretch, giving up 40+ points in two of the last three games.  Florida never even came close to giving up that much, outside of a 35-28 loss to LSU. No other team topped 30 points against them and they held 8 of 12 opponents to 14 points or less. Coming off at least of week of rest, the Gators are 5-1 SU/ATS the L3 seasons while Michigan is 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS. 

The key here, as it was for the SEC Championship Game, is Florida's offense. A special teams TD was huge against Alabama. What the Gators need to do here is borrow a page from the Indiana and Ohio State playbook and run the ball a lot.  Michigan gave up 300+ rushing yards (!) to those two opponents, which is just horrible. In Kelvin Taylor, Florida has a solid running back to turn to as he gained nearly 1,000 yards during the regular season w/ 13 TDs.  I just can't see either team creating any separation here and Michigan is just 4-4 SU/ATS its last eight times as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  8* Florida

10* Tennessee (12:00 ET): I feel this shapes up as one of the bigger mismatches of the entire bowl season. It's yet another instance of misleading records as 8-4 Tennessee is a Top 20 team by most metrics while 10-2 Northwestern, ranked 13th in the country, is one of the most overrated teams in the entire country. This disparate records have everything to do with results in "close games" (defined as those decided by eight points or less) as Tennessee was just 2-4 SU in them (three losses by a combined 10 pts), including heartbreakers against the two best teams in the country, Oklahoma and Alabama. Northwestern won all of its close games (5-0 SU) while getting blown out badly twice. Incredibly, the Wildcats own just one win by more than 10 pts against a FBS foe all season. Lay the points in this one.

I realize that we've all grown tired of waiting for UT "to arrive" under HC Butch Jones. But this is a team poised to be the favorite next year in the SEC East. Remember that last year they destroyed another Big 10 team (Iowa) in the bowl game, winning 45-28. Similar to last season, they are closing strong. They come into the Outback Bowl on a five-game win streak (four double digit wins) and scored 53 points against what had been a very good Vanderbilt defense in the regular season finale. Again, probably no team has "better" losses this year than the Vols. They led Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama late in the fourth quarter. They are the ONLY team that stayed within single digits of Bama this year.

Northwestern wasn't asked to step up in class too often this season, but when they did, they got destroyed. Iowa and Michigan beat them by a combined 78-10. Note that they avoided both Ohio State and Michigan State. Wildcat fans will point to the season opening win over Stanford, which I was on the right side of, but the Cardinal weren't the same team at that point.  This will easily be the best offense that N'western will have seen this year as Tennessee comes in averaging 34.3 points per game. Northwestern also hasn't had much success in bowl games, going just 1-4 SU under Pat Fitzgerald w/ the one win coming back in 2012, their last bowl appearance. 10* Tennessee

8* BYU (11:00 ET): St. Mary's (9-0 ATS) remains unbeaten at the betting window, though in their lone SU loss of the season (at Cal), the final score did end up falling close to the number. Regardless, I'm targeting the Gaels for an ATS setback, and potential outright loss, as they host BYU here. This is the conference opener for underdog BYU, who has not played since a Holiday Tournament in Hawaii that concluded on X-Mas Day. After opening w/ a tough, three-point loss to Harvard out on the Island, the Cougars responded w/ strong B2B wins and covers over New Mexico and Northern Iowa. While 0-3 SU in "true" road games to this point, none of BYU's losses this season have been blowouts and I see them as being poised for an upset here. Take the points. 

St. Mary's has already played two WCC games and blew out both San Francisco and Santa Clara.  However, an out of conference matchup w/ Utah Valley State (non-board team) I don't think did them any favors coming into tonight's showdown.  That game took place just three days ago and the Gaels won by only 15, so had it been lined, the result would have been an ATS loss. The team shot only 42.4 percent from the field, which actually matched a season-low (tying their percentage from the loss to Cal), but they were bailed out yet again by another opponent shooting horrifically as in this case Utah Valley State was just 27.4 percent from the floor. That was actually the third time in the last four games that SMC's opponent was below 29 percent shooting overall!  BYU comes in shooting 47.7% for the season (50%+ each of the L4 games), so I'd say the Gaels are in for a rude awakening tonight. 

BYU's shooting isn't likely to go down as long as the ball finds its way into the hands of Chase Fischer, who scored 41 points in the win over New Mexico and then 26 more the following night vs. Northern Iowa.  While St. Mary's does appear to have a pretty significant edge defensively tonight, you do have to adjust for the quality of opposition each team has faced.  The Gaels ridiculous 53.8% shooting is unlikely to continue moving forward and note that there have been only two games all season where BYU failed to scored 75 points. That makes the Cougars a great underdog play IMO and note they beat Utah Valley State by significantly more (31 points) in their season opener. 8* BYU

10* Michigan State (8:00 ET):  Normally, I have a lot of respect for the so-called "smart money" in betting and in this year's Cotton Bowl, it certainly seems to like favored Alabama. (In fact, both of this year's CFP semifinals are unique in that the "smart money" seems to be on the favorites). However, I don't think there's a program that has thrived more in recent seasons than has Michigan State. Mark Dantonio is a phenomenal 11-1-1 ATS since 2011 when taking points and that includes four consecutive outright wins in bowl games. This line reminds me of their upsets of both Michigan and Ohio State earlier this year, games where the "smart money" foolishly lined up against the Spartans while the public was willing to back the dog. While an outright win here would surprise me, I'm taking the points in what promises to be a close game.

Sparty certainly had some good fortune go its way throughout the course of the regular season, most notably a certain punt in Ann Arbor. It's hard to believe, but at that time MSU was 0-6 ATS before pulling out the "Miracle at Michigan."  Overall, the team went 6-1 SU in close games (defined as those decided by 8 pts or less), so they are probably due to drop such a game here. But the points remain very attractive in the sense that team definitely seems to be peaking at the right time. This is a defense that held defending Nat'l Champion Ohio State to five first downs and 132 total yards (in Columbus w/o QB Connor Cook!). The offense then pulled its weight in the regular season finale, a 55-16 beatdown of Penn State. Things were tougher than expected in the BIg 10 Championship vs. Iowa, but the bottom line is that this team is 36-4 SU its L40 games and is deserving of more respect.

Alabama appears to be viewed as the #1 team in College Football and for good reason. Only one of their wins this year (Tennessee) came by single digits.  Had it not been for a ton of turnovers against Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide would likely be undefeated. Of course, you could also say the same thing about Michigan State's loss to Nebraska and the officiating. I don't think that the SEC is necessarily owed the respect they've been afforded in previous years and remember that 'Bama lost outright (in SEC country) to Ohio State LY in a similar price range. Again, I don't think they'll suffer the same fate here, but I question RB Derek Henry's usage (40+ carries L2 games) and their ability to create the necessary separation in what shapes up as a defensive struggle.  The Spartans' defense has allowed just 50 total points its last four games. They allow just 113 rush yards per game for the season. 10* Michigan State

10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): The Clippers look to complete a perfect 5-0 road trip tonight w/ a visit to the Big Easy and given that they were able to dispatch of a good Hornets team last night, I don't see them struggling against a significantly worse Pelicans squad. Again, we can take advantage of some pretty significant line value here due to a team playing in the second game of a back to back. It's pretty ridiculous that we are able to even get points in this matchup considering how awful New Orleans has been this season. They are arguably the worst defensive team in the league to this point (inexcusable w/ Anthony Davis on the roster) and are being outscored by roughly five points per game. Take the points.

The Clippers did not cover the first game on this road trip, but that was due to laying a big number (on X-Mas night) against the Lakers (still won by 10). Since then, it's been three straight wins and covers. Last night, and this is w/o Blake Griffin mind you, they were able to put up 122 points against a Charlotte team that is no slouch defensively. LA never trailed and got 26 points from Austin Rivers of all people. They shouldn't expect that kind of contribution here, but nevertheless scoring shouldn't be a concern against a Pelicans side that is giving up an average of 109 points per game here at home. Earlier this season, the Clips torched the Pelicans for 111 pts in a 21-point victory at home. It probably won't be that easy this time around, but then again it doesn't need to be.

New Orleans would seem to have an advantage considering they haven't played in two days, but when you take their season into account, it becomes rather obvious that it would be foolish to lay points in this spot.  They lost 104-89 in Orlando their last time out and are just 2-7 ATS following a double digit loss. The Pelicans have been more respectable at home (7-6 SU), at least on the offensive end, but w/ Davis getting so little help this season, it's difficult to like this team.  Especially considering a 4-10 SU record vs. winning teams. 10* LA Clippers

8* Indiana (6:05 ET): When it comes to home vs. road, these teams have experienced very different results in this price range and it certainly applies here. Milwaukee has gone just 1-5 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points while Indiana is 6-1 ATS at home in the same range. The Bucks are in fact just 3-15 SU overall on the road, so this line definitely looks low to me even though the Pacers are coming off a tough overtime loss last night, 102-100 to Chicago.  But they did cover in the Windy City, improving their ATS record to 6-1 vs. division opponents. That includes a 123-86 whitewashing of Milwaukee last month here in the Hoosier State. Defensively, the Pacers are better at home and the Bucks worse on the road. Lay the points.

December hasn't gone nearly as well as November did for Indiana, but then again the team went 11-2 SU/ATS last month and that record was going to be very hard to duplicate. They have covered the spread each of their last three times out, including a 93-87 win over what has been a pretty hot Atlanta team here at home. Last night, the team did not shoot well (38.1 FG%) and fell into a 10-pt halftime hole. Yet, they were still able to rally and force OT, only losing due to a last-second Jimmy Butler tip-in. I often make the case that teams playing in the second game of a back to back are undervalued due to the perceived disadvantage and that is the case here. 

Milwaukee is really bad on the road and really bad defensively.  That makes tonight a tough spot for them. This is a team that is allowing 105.8 PPG on the road and is dead last (among Eastern Conference teams) in terms of efficiency on that end of the floor. If that's not bad enough, the Bucks are awful at guarding the three-point line w/ opponents hitting better than 40 percent against them from distance. In the previous meeting between these two, the Pacers made 15 three-pointers and that's no surprise as they are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league this year. Overall, their shooting numbers have been down in recent games (Paul George in particular), so a visit from the Bucks seems to be just what "the doctor ordered."  8* Indiana

9* Carolina (6:05 ET):  As we prepare to turn the calendar to a new year, it is clear that Washington has emerged as the team to beat this year in the NHL. The Capitals have 58 points entering play Thursday; that's the most in the league. Plus they have the best goal differential (+41). They've won nine straight coming into tonight and their 26 regulation wins are by far and away the most in the Eastern Conference. But this is a tricky spot for them. While the Caps are every bit as good as their record, their opponent here is significantly better than theirs. Carolina may only have 35 points (second fewest in the Metro), but they are top three in the league in both Fenwick and Corsi. I'll step in front of the "Washington train" and call for an upset here.

Carolina does have a winning record here in December (7-6) and an overall 7-8-3 mark at home should be much better given that they are allowing an average of just 25.2 shots per game here. This team is no stranger to upsets as they pulled off a big one earlier this week (as +175 underdogs on the ML) in Chicago, beating the Blackhawks 2-1. Unfortunately, they followed that up by losing in New Jersey Tuesday (I correctly went AGAINST them!). Note that seven of the 'Canes last eight games have been decided by exactly one goal. In four of their last six games, they have allowed 24 or fewer shots, which is outstanding. The goaltending has improved dramatically over the L5 games w/ a .942 save percentage. Simply put, this is a club that should be winning more games.

Washington is dealing with a number of key injuries going into this game. They are also playing in the second game of a back to back (beat Buffalo 5-2 last night), so it is unlikely that Braden Holtby will be back between the pipes, a huge break for Carolina. Both center Jay Beagle and center Nicklas Backstrom left last night's game and Beagle is definitely out tonight as is top defensemen John Carlson. Something else to keep in mind is that the Caps are coming off a game where they scored four unanswered goals in the third period. What will they have left in the tank tonight? This is just not a good spot for them. 9* Carolina

8* Oklahoma (4:00 ET):  Obviously, what jumps out at you right away here is that the #1 team in the rankings, Clemson, is the underdog here.  This reminds me a bit of last season when another unbeaten ACC champ (Florida State) came in as an even more decided underdog (were +9.5 vs. Oregon) and got housed, 59-20.  I'm not saying things will be as one-sided in the Orange Bowl on New Year's Eve, but while Clemson may be the top choice of the committee, Oklahoma is the toast of both Vegas and the computers and I give that far more credence. After losing their only game of the season (vs. Texas), the Sooners destroyed everything in their path, winning their final seven games by an average of 32.6 points per game. They also have revenge here for a humiliating 40-6 loss to Clemson in LY's Russell Athletic Bowl. Lay the points.

Some may be surprised by Bob Stoops getting his team here, but not I.  I got down on OU at +800 to make the CFP prior to the start of the season. This is a team that grossly underachieved last season, getting upset five times as a favorite, including the bowl loss to Clemson.  Just how much respect do the Sooners carry in the marketplace? Over the last two seasons, they have been an underdog just one time and that was +1.5 at Baylor on November 14th, a game they won easily, 44-34.  Baylor was one of one two teams that opened the season 8-0 SU or better that OU beat down the stretch. The other was "Bedlam" rival Oklahoma State, whom the Sooners thrashed 58-23 (led 41-17 in the first half!). Both Baylor and OSU were revenge spots for Stoops' team as were Kansas State and TCU. They won three of the four by double digits, by an average of more than 25 PPG.

I actually went against OU when they lost to Texas (were 16-pt favorites). However, the fact that they lost that game outright (scored season-low 17 points) got more shocking by the week. I expect Baker Mayfield and this Sooners offense to have a big night here.  They averaged 45.8 PPG (3rd in FBS) and Mayfield finished as hot as any QB in the country w/ a 35-5 TD-INT ratio, 68.6 completion percentage and almost 3,400 yards. The Clemson defense has not faced an offense like this all season and gave up 30+ points in their last two games. Though unbeaten, the Tigers had a number of close calls during the year. Three wins were by five points or less and that doesn't even include the Florida State game (tied entering 4th quarter) or the ACC Championship Game. I can say w/ complete certainly that Oklahoma will be the best team Clemson has seen all season. I'm not sure that's the case the other way around. Don't discount Clemson's poor coverage units on special teams either. The Sooners are the only team in the country to rank in the top 10 in both offensive & defensive efficiency.  Clemson is far too dependent on one player (QB DeShaun Watson).  8* Oklahoma

8* Villanova (12:00 ET):  While College Football obviously is in the headlines New Year's Eve, this is an outstanding matchup on the hardcourt with the (perceived) two top teams from the Big East matched up. Both Xavier (currently) and Villanova have also been ranked in the top ten nationally. I know that early in the season I was playing against Jay Wright's Wildcats with some regularity (as their 53-24 three-year ATS record is certainly due to regress). But after Nova dropped a couple of games, I'm off that bandwagon and instead focused on the fact this is a team that's due to start shooting better from three-point range. At home, in a big game, I look for the Wildcats to come alive from three-point range this afternoon. Lay the points.

Xavier is on fire right now as they are one of just four remaining unbeaten teams in the country. They have covered eight straight games, most recently beating Wake Forest on the road, 78-70 as seven-point chalk. However, that score is a little bit misleading. Note that the Musketeers actually trailed by as many as 18 points in the first half in that one (by 15 at the half) before ridiculously hot-shooting in the second half (59 percent!) propelled them to victory. While some in the Xavier camp might write that off as a "wake up call," I feel it's more "warning sign."  Plus, Villanova is an opponent they have historically struggled against. Xavier is 0-5 SU/ATS the L2 seasons vs. them, losing all three meetings last year by double digits.  

You might question me raising an eyebrow over Villanova's shooting as they are actually hitting 60% percent on two-point field goal attempts, which would seem to indicate regression, not improvement, is forthcoming.  But at the same time, the Wildcats are connecting on only 31% from three-point range and infamously went 4 for 32 in their first loss of the season (vs. Oklahoma). The good news though is that their opponents are shooting below 30 percent from three-point range against them here at home, where they are 7-0 straight up.  Over the last three seasons, 'Nova is a sterling 28-8 ATS on their home floor. As long as they don't killed on the boards, they'll end Xavier's unbeaten run. 8* Villanova

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Right now, we don't know if Steph Curry is playing or not.  But regardless, I'm going against Golden State here as they are going to be asked to lay a fairly big number here in Dallas. Obviously, if Curry doesn't play, it would be a huge plus.  He is still being bothered by a calf injury which limited him X-Mas Day against Cleveland, a game the Warriors probably should have lost.  The fact that interim HC Luke Walton has come out and stated that Curry may not play tomorrow either (team is in Houston) has me thinking that things don't look too good here. Curry made five of his team's 20 (!) three-pointers and had a triple double in Monday's 19-point home victory over Sacramento. I shouldn't have to tell you that potentially not having the reigning MVP would be a major loss. Again though, I'm taking the points either way.

With or without Curry, the Mavericks can be a challenging matchup for the Warriors. Dallas is actually averaging more three point attempts per game this month than is Golden State and they're making them to boot. In fact, their average of 12.1 makes per game (since December 6th) leads the league during that time and they are shooting at a near 40 percent clip as well. The Mavs are averaging a healthy 113.3 PPG during a three-game win streak and this will be just the second time this season that the oddsmakers will be affording them more than five points at home.  The first came last month (against the Clippers) and they won that game outright, 118-108. As an underdog this year, Dallas is 9-7 ATS w/ six outright victories.

Though you may not be able to tell from the final score, Golden State really struggled defensively against Sacramento.  They allowed 61 points in the first half as the Kings were 13 of 31 from three-point range (for the game) and don't think for a second that the Mavs won't be using a similar "blueprint" here.  Eventually, this team (meaning the Warriors) is going to start slipping up.  It just seems unreasonable that they can continue to cover at around a 65% ATS clip given the pointspreads they consistently face on a nightly basis.  In fact, they are just 3-2 ATS this year as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. They are allowing 106.9 PPG on the road this season. 10* Dallas

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): After letting one "get away" from them two nights ago in Chicago, I expect a strong effort out of the Raptors tonight at home. Once again, they'll be facing a team that had their number last season. As you know, Washington surprisingly swept Toronto right out of the playoffs last season. The Raptors did gain a small measure of revenge w/ an 84-82 win in D.C. last month, but failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites. However, using that line as a barometer, it is a bit surprising to see Toronto favored by so little here at home. The Wizards have clearly regressed this season, particularly on the defensive end of the floor (where they give up 104.8 points per game).  Lay the points.

Washington also lost its last home, 108-91 at home to the Clippers. That loss may not sound that bad until you realize the Clippers were w/o Blake Griffin. Yes, the Wiz are dealing w/ injuries of their own right now, most notably SG Bradley Beal's leg. But you shouldn't be losing by 17 points at home, depleted or not.  Beal's absence will certainly be felt in this game as he averaged 20.8 PPG in LY's playoff series. The team is also w/o reserves Nene, Drew Gooden and Gary Neal. But the main problem is still defense and the faster pace the team has played at this year has failed to produce positive results. Currently, the Wizards are being outscored by 5.1 PPG on the road despite actually being 7-7 straight up. But this is a team that's lost ten times by double digits already this season.

Toronto had been sound defensively until giving up 104 points to the Bulls Monday night. That was a game where they wasted a 32-23 lead after one quarter, allowing Chicago to score 55 points after halftime. But, they are still allowing only 96.6 PPG for the season, giving them a big edge on that end of the floor over Washington.  Offensively, the Raptors are tied for fourth in the league in offensive efficiency.  Most important of all though is that the team is now fully healthy w/ Jonas Valanciunas back in the lineup. Both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have played very well of late and I feel that this line simply isn't high enough given the respective health of the two teams coming into tonight.  8* Toronto

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Penguins have been one of the biggest disappointments in the Eastern Conference thus far as their 37 points have them just fifth in the Metro and well off the playoff pace (five points out). However, they've had two days off to "get over" being shut out in Winnipeg (lost 1-0) and I think that a return home will breed a different result. Paying a visit will be Toronto, the last place team in the Atlantic. While this year's Maple Leafs may not be as bad as the team we saw last year, they still give up far too many goals. They lost last night, 6-3 to the Islanders, so the schedule is not kind here. When playing on back to back days this season, Toronto is a horrible 0-8 and I see them losing yet again tonight. 

Pittsburgh has already beaten Toronto twice this year w/ both games taking place early on in the season (in October). If you want some evidence of line value for tonight, consider that the Pens closed at -250 on the money line when beat the Leafs here at home (2-1) on October 17th. Two weeks later, it was a 4-0 shutout victory in Toronto that improved Pittsburgh to 7-1 SU the last eight meetings between these two teams. Clearly, the Penguins ranking 28th in the league in scoring (also 28th on the power play) goes beyond just "disappointing," but this is an ideal matchup as Toronto has allowed 4+ goals in four of their last seven games. Last night was a real disaster as the Islanders scored all of their six goals in the first two periods (on only 15 shots!), chasing Jonathan Bernier early.

When looking at Pittsburgh's recent skid (lost 8 of last 11 games), it would be easy to pin things on not having Marc-Andre Fleury in net. But his replacements, whether it's Jeff Zatkoff or rookie Matt Murray, have actually been solid. That duo has combined to allow just six goals in the team's last four games, including one each in the last two. It's stunning that the Pens are only 9-7-2 on home ice this year (lost 4 of 5), but I don't see that lasting and with the time off, plus Toronto playing w/o rest, the schedule sets up well here. Pittsburgh is averaging 34.9 shots per game here at home as well. Note that Toronto is 2-7 SU when coming off a loss by two or more goals this season. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Seton Hall (7:00 ET):  Big East play gets underway here as we have two, under-the-radar teams squaring off in the conference opener. Both Seton Hall and Marquette check in w/ 10-2 SU records and neither is phony as the former has wins over Ole Miss (neutral site) and Wichita State while the latter won at Wisconsin earlier this month. In fact, after starting 1-2 SU, Marquette has now won nine in a row, though save for that road win over Wisconsin, the competition hasn't been all that stellar. The Golden Eagles did leave their home state one time, going to New York, where they picked up wins over LSU and Arizona State. But that was just prior to Thanksgiving and since then, they haven't played anyone of substance. I look for them to be dealt a rude awakening here.  Take the points.

Seton Hall's last loss came on December 2nd at George Washington (who beat Virginia remember) by eight points. Since then, they've won five straight, four of those victories coming by double digits. The Pirates are led by Isaiah Whitehead, who is tops on the team in both scoring (14.8 PPG) and assists (4.1 APG). He had 10 assists in the team's 66-49 win over South Florida last Tuesday, a game in which they never trailed. There is also Angel Delgado, who leads all Big East players w/ 10.1 rebounds per game. He and Khadeen Carrington are the big reasons why this team gets so many points in the paint (36.8 per game) and SH also has posted double-digit second chance points in 10 consecutive games. Speaking of high percentage, the Pirates do an excellent job at getting to the free throw line as they've made nearly the same number of FT's that their opponents have attempted! Defensively, this team is solid as well (63.1 PPG allowed). 

Marquette has generally owned this Big East rivalry through the years (15-2 SU L17 meetings), but this is clearly one of the better Seton Hall teams that they will have faced during that time. The Pirates did come in and pick up a road win last year (w/o Whitehead), 80-70 as 3.5-pt dogs, but then lost to the Golden Eagles at home and then again in the Big East tournament. So, there's still a bit of revenge in play here for the underdog and note Marquette is just 12-26 ATS its last 38 lined home games. Seton Hall is 21-14 ATS the L3 seasons as an underdog.  8* Seton Hall

10* Under NC State/Mississippi State (3:30 ET):  Despite the strong quarterback play on both sides here, I'm on the Under in the Belk Bowl. It seems as if the public, predictably, is firmly in the Miss St-Over parlay camp here. But, at least as the total concerned, the number has been bet up far too much. Now, we have seen a good number of high scoring bowl games recently. But those mostly involved two teams with bad defenses. That isn't the case here. Even when factoring in a wild 51-50 win over Arkansas, MSU still allowed only 22.8 points per game for the year and only three other teams scored more than 21 against them. Three were ranked 18th or higher at the time (one was Alabama). Meanwhile, NC State actually allowed fewer points per game on the road, giving up just 19.0.  Take the Under.

Jacoby Brissett is the player to watch for North Carolina State. The Wolfpack QB is less heralded than his Bulldog counterpart, Dak Prescott, but honestly is just as good.  The issue here, on both sides. is that when you factor out the lesser opponents on the respective schedules, the offensive numbers begin to look a lot less impressive. NC State destroyed its four weak non-conference opponents, scoring 35 or more each time. But they scored that many in only half of their ACC games. The same holds true for Mississippi State, who was held under 20 points in half of its SEC games. 

NC State's defense allowed 30+ points only three times during the regular season. Those games came against Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina. Every other opponent, but one (Virginia Tech) was held to under 21 points and 310 total yards! That's impressive. As is the Wolfpack's pass rush. DE Mike Rose was 8th in the country w/ 10.5 sacks and three defensive lineman had 10+ tackles for loss. The defense also finished w/ 12 interceptions. In terms of value, NC State played only three games in the regular season where the closing total was 60 pts or higher. Mississippi State did so only five times and three of those stayed Under.  One that did not was a game against overmatched Northwestern State where the Bulldogs scored 62 pts themselves. This number is just too high. 10* Under NC State/Mississippi State

10* Virginia Tech (12:00 ET):  West Virginia is drawing a lot of attention w/ a 10-1 (SU) start that has them ranked 19th in the country.  Their only loss is to another 10-1 team, that being #5 Virginia, back on December 8th (70-54 as 5.5-pt dogs). However, as impressive as Bob Huggins' team has been, particularly on the defensive end, I see some regression in the cards. This is their first "true" road game of the season and the Mountaineers will also be opening Big 12 play w/ B2B roadies. Also, with the defense, they cannot possibly continue to sustain their current percentages.  Opponents are making only 40.7% of all field goal attempts against WVU this season, including 22.4% from three-point range (lowest percentage in nation). I'll look for Virginia Tech to shoot well enough Wednesday afternoon to stay within the number. Take the points.

Va Tech, like WVU, has not played in over a week. But the Hokies are off a loss here, 79-62 as a 3.5-pt dog on a neutral floor to St. Joe's.  That was just their fourth loss, however, and two of the previous three were by three points or less.  While they've yet to beat any opponent of substance, I anticipate they'll be "dialed in" for this one. I say that because it's a revenge spot for a 31-point loss last season in Morgantown. That was a game that really got away from the Hokies in the second half as it was only a 33-30 game at halftime.  Making only four three-pointers and seven free throws simply wasn't going to get it done for the Hokies there. But sophomore guard Justin Bibbs could be the answer this year. He's among the nation's best from behind the arc at 61.5 percent, including a 7 of 10 effort in the team's last home game. 

Another key here is that Virginia Tech can defend as well w/ opponents shooting only 39.8 percent against them this season (better FG% defense than WVU!) and 30.3 percent from three-point range here in Blacksburg. Yes, I said that WVU's percentages are due to regress and while the same may hold true for the Hokies, my point here is that with points likely at a premium, taking the dog is the right thing to do in this instance. West Virginia has lost each of its last two visits to Blacksburg. 10* Virginia Tech

8* Texas Tech (9:00 ET):  To me, this matchup comes down to a question of motivation. There's really no debating as to whom the better team (on paper) is here. LSU is favored for a good reason, but I'm not convinced that the Bayou Bengals are likely to live up to expectations in this spot as they play a hungry underdog in its home state that's happy to be in any bowl after a one-year hiatus. Furthermore, Texas Tech can score a ton of points (46.6 per game!). Spotting them an additional touchdown here thus seems like a bad idea (Tech is 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog of +3.5 to +10), especially given the way LSU finished its own regular season offensively (16.5 PPG L4 games). Having secured Les Miles' future at the school in the finale (19-7 win over Texas A&M), I'm not sure the Tigers can match that emotion here. Take the points.

These teams played one common opponent and that was Arkansas. Early in the season, Texas Tech went to Fayatteville and beat the Razorbacks, 35-24 as 10-pt underdogs. That was no fluke either as the Red Raiders never trailed and racked up nearly 500 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, LSU lost its game to the Hogs (at home!), late in the season by a score of 31-14 (were 6.5-pt favorites). They were able to gain only 330 yds of total offense & that was one of three consecutive double-digit losses.  The Big 12 always seems to "get up" when facing the SEC and I expect that to be the case again here. Texas Tech should clearly have the edge in crowd support here w/ the game taking place in Houston.

Obviously, the Red Raiders awful run defense (126th in FBS!) having to stop LSU's sensational freshman Leonard Fournette is a concern.  But Texas Tech HC Kliff Kingsbury has made changes to his staff since the end of the regular season and I expect that to have a positive effect here. Plus, as bad as Tech may be defensively, they are just as good offensively, ranking second in the nation in efficiency and averaging almost 600 total yds per game! Compare that to LSU, which couldn't even break 20 points in any of its last four games. The Tigers have their own defensive issues as well (allowed 27.7 PPG on the road) as this is not the typically strong stop unit we're used to seeing out of Baton Rouge. Though firing Miles would have been the dumbest thing imaginable for LSU, I'll give the coaching edge to Texas Tech here. After not having a week off until before the regular season finale (where they won at Texas, 48-45), all this time to prepare is going to be huge for Kingsbury and his staff (5-1 ATS off a bye). The Red Raiders have played only one game since November 14th and have won their last four bowl games (9-2 SU L11).  LSU has dropped three of its last four bowl games and hasn't covered one as a favorite since 2010. 8* Texas Tech

10* Under Blackhawks/Coyotes (9:05 ET):  I've won each of the last two times I've played a game involving Arizona.  I took them here at home last Wednesday as they downed Toronto 3-2. Then, coming out of the Holiday break, they hosted LA and I was on the Over.  The end result there was a 4-3 OT loss (but an easy winner for me).  They then rebounded the following night w/ a 2-1 win at Colorado (another overtime game) despite being outshot 39-28. Ranking 8th in the league in goals per game and 28th in goals allowed hardly gives the impression of the 'Yotes being an "Under team," but three of their last four games have ended up going that way (I was on the one Over!) and tonight should be another low-scoring affair as Chicago comes calling.

The Stanley Cup champs arrive in the desert off back to back losses, the last one being a real surprise as they were -210 on the money line in a 2-1 loss to Carolina. The game previous saw them get shut out by Dallas (4-0). Overall, this team is 6-1-1 Under its last eight games.  They are also 12-3-2 Under when taking on a team w/ a losing record.  Coming off a game where they scored one or zero goals, they are 6-3 Under.  Their one goal vs. Carolina came with just three seconds remaining, so they are essentially coming off B2B games where they were shutout.  HC Joel Quenneville, true to form, is shaking up his lines, but the fact is beyond Patrick Kane, this team lacks a consistent goal scorer.

It's pretty uncharacteristic to find the 'Hawks giving up an average of 3.3 goals per game on the road and I would expect that number to start coming down immediately.  Corey Crawford remains a solid option in goal and has a .925 save percentage overall, not to mention a 2.18 goals against average his last four outings against the Coyotes.  Arizona scored just five goals in three games last year vs. Chicago w/ Crawford starting only one of them. Overall, the 'Yotes have scored just nine goals their last four games.  At the same time, the Coyotes have gotten improved goaltending of late from both Anders Lindback and Louis Dominigue. Linback made 38 saves Sunday and appears more likely to get the start here. Even so, Dominigue has a .925 save percentage in his four starts. 10* Under Blackhawks/Coyotes

10* Iowa (9:00 ET):  This is a tough spot for Michigan State as HC Tom Izzo is dealing with the passing of his father (happened yesterday) and the team is without its best player Denzel Valentine.  Still the top ranked team and one of only five remaining unbeatens left in the country, Sparty definitely showed some cracks its last time out (1st game w/o Valentine), a 99-93 win over Oakland that required overtime and saw the team down 13 at halftime. Tonight is their toughest test to date. Iowa can certainly be maddening at times (see blown lead vs. Iowa State), but I look for the Hawkeyes to make good on the fact they are favored in this spot as they are 6-0 SU so far in Iowa City w/ an average margin of victory of 21.8 points per game.

As alluded to above, this is not the first time that Iowa has been matched up against a high-profile unbeaten foe. On December 6th, in Ames, they led Iowa State by 14 in the second half. But then the wheels came off and they ended up losing 83-82. Fortunately, they and I were still able to cover as 7.5-point underdogs.  The oddsmakers are not affording that kind of cushion here, but then again this is at home. I am well aware of Michigan State's past success here and against the Hawkeyes overall (nine straight wins), plus the fact Izzo is 18-4 ATS his L22 road games.  But this year's Iowa team, the Iowa State result aside, has a "different feel" and they are experienced (start four seniors and a junior). They looked very good in last week's 85-63 win over outmanned Tennessee Tech.

Michigan State was lucky to beat Oakland last week. They needed every bit of Bryn Forbes' career high 32 points and Eron Harris scored a season-high 27, which was more than double his previous high.  Asking either to duplicate those respective performances would be asking too much.  This is only MSU's second "true" road game of the season, the first was against a slightly overrated Northeastern squad, who they did beat by 20.  But that was w/ Valentine. As an underdog, Izzo's teams are a surprising 4-9 straight up the last three seasons and this is obviously their first time in that role this season. There's no more excuses for Iowa; it's time for them to win a big game. 10* Iowa

10* Atlanta (8:05 ET):  The Hawks are off a 93-87 loss last night in Indiana, but if you're a regular reader/client, then you know I often feel that teams (particularly road teams) are undervalued in the second game of a back to back.  Such is the case here. Atlanta had won six in a row going into yday and had covered the spread in all but one of those victories. The exception came when they were laying double digits to Portland and got "backdoored" (led by as many as 21 in the fourth quarter). Tonight marks the first time they've been an underdog in B2B games since playing both Oklahoma City and San Antonio in a three-day span. After shooting the ball poorly last night, the team should regain its touch here against a disappointing Rockets squad that remains inept defensively.  Take the points.

Houston actually led the NBA in the ATS standings last season (over 59%), but this year has been a different story as they are just 13-19 ATS overall. They too come in off a loss, theirs coming at New Orleans by a score of 110-108, a game in which they were favored by 1.5 points.  Rockets' fans will want to point out that was a tough spot, coming a day after upsetting an X-Mas upset of San Antonio and that the team had gone 4-1 SU/ATS in its last five games. But there's simply been too many poor efforts from this team all season, particularly on the defensive end. They allow 105.0 points per game, which is bottom five in the league.  Their record off a SU loss as a favorite is not good (1-8 ATS) and as I've talked about before, there's been somewhat of a shift in the balance of power between the NBA's two conferences. The Rockets have certainly felt it as they're 3-9 ATS vs. the East so far this year.

Everyone had Atlanta regressing from last year's shocking 60-win campaign. Yet, even after yday's loss, they are still above .600 and second in the Eastern Conference.  They are one of just five teams to have won 20 games to this point. Before getting held to only 87 points last night in Indiana (where they shot only 41.3 percent and committed 22 turnovers), the Hawks had topped 100 every time out during their six-game win streak (averaged 111.5 PPG on 51.2 percent shooting) and that's something that they should certainly be able to do here. Against teams that allow 99+ PPG, the Hawks are 13-3 SU/11-5 ATS this year. They swept the Rockets last season, including a seven-point win here in Houston. 10* Atlanta

10* Colorado State (7:30 ET):  Those who make the arguement that there's "too many bowl games" (not me!) may have a point as it pertains to this year's Arizona Bowl.  The Mountain West was not thrilled at all to see two of its members - Colorado State and Nevada - matched up here, even though the two did not meet during the regular season. Still, the sense of familiarity makes this bowl a unique one to handicap and I'll side w/ the team that has owned the rivalry (11-2 SU L13) including wins in both games since both joined the MWC. CSU has won as a favorite each of the L2 seasons against Nevada, first 38-17 (-8) in Fort Collins, then LY 31-24 (-2) in Reno. So they certainly appear to be undervalued in this one.  Lay the points.

The Rams were expected to take a step back in HC Mike Bobo's first year on the job (replaced Jim McElwain, who went to Florida). They went 10-3 SU in 2014, their most wins in any season since '02, and predictably got off to a slow 2-4 SU start this year. But two of those losses were by a field goal to Power 5 schools (Colorado and Minnesota) and from there they took off, winning five of their last six games including each of the last four. Further making the case that they are undervalued in this spot, CSU is 6-0 SU as a favorite this season (20-3 SU laying points the L3 seasons!). That reminds me of the San Jose State team (also Mountain West) I cashed in on in the Cure Bowl. They were favored in each of the L4 games, winning all four by a TD or more. Three of those were on the road and what really caught my attention was the way they were able to run the ball (258.8 YPG!). They also have WR Rashard Higgins (194 yds LY vs. Nevada), who led the country in receiving yards last season.  Something else to consider is that the players will want to atone for LY's ugly 45-10 loss to Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl (under an interim HC). 

Meanwhile, I'm not so sure about the trajectory of the Nevada program under third year HC Brian Polian (Bill's son). This is a team that lost to both UNLV and Wyoming this year and ended its regular season w/ B2B losses (to Utah State and San Diego State). It is now well-known that the team would have preferred to play in the Cure Bowl (in Orlando) as opposed to this game, so motivation could be an issue. So too is a defense that allows over 200 rushing YPG outside of Reno. I find it interesting that CSU was -11 at Fresno State in the season finale while Nevada was only -4 when they visited FSU just a couple of weeks earlier, so this line should be closer to a touchdown going by that standard. Provided the Rams can slow down the Wolfpack's rushing attack, they should win this game with ease.  10* Colorado State

8* New Jersey (7:05 ET): Little was expected from either of these teams coming into the season, but I feel that both have somewhat exceeded expectations. Carolina has been a bit unlucky in the sense that they rank 2nd in Corsi and 3rd in Fenwick, yet despite those impressive numbers (and B2B wins) they are still second from the bottom in the Metropolitan w/ only 35 points and a -18 goal differential. New Jersey is 4th in the Metro, despite losing four of its last five, most recently falling to these Hurricanes (3-1 in Raleigh) on Saturday. Back at home, they should be "amped" for the rematch while the 'Canes look to be in a bit of a letdown as they pulled a big upset at Chicago (were +175 on the money line) Sunday. I look for the Devils to gain revenge in this favorable situation.

These are two of the better teams in the league when it comes to shots allowed.  Carolina actually gives up the fewest per game (26.1) in the entire league while New Jersey isn't far behind at 28.5. It was a 25-20 edge in shots for the Hurricanes on Saturday, but the game was tied 1-1 until 8:17 into the third period. Note that the Devils did win the season's first matchup, 5-1 in Raleigh. So, they certainly know they can beat this opponent. Having not played since Saturday while Carolina had to go to Chicago is a big advantage. Especially because the 'Canes are off such an improbable win. Carolina has won three straight just one time this season and that came back at the end of October. There have been two times where they've been off B2B wins this month and they've conceded 5.0 goals per game in those contests.

While both teams struggle offensively, New Jersey should have a big edge in goal w/ Corey Schneider. The league leader in starts had a 1.65 goals against average in six outings vs. Carolina prior to Saturday and checks in w/ a .924 save percentage this season. He's the primary reason why the Devils allow the seventh fewest goals per game in the league. Carolina is 24th in that department and was actually second to last in the Eastern Conference before the L5 games. Both Eddie Lack and Cam Ward have had their struggles all season and the 'Canes special teams have done them no favors either, particularly a penalty kill which ranks 28th (77.4 percent).  8* New Jersey

8* Tulsa (5:00 ET): We're down to only five unbeatens left in College Basketball and certainly the least motivated of the bunch has to be SMU, a team that is ineligible for the postseason due to NCAA sanctions. Really, it's pretty impressive that the Mustangs have been able to keep it together like this, especially with their head coach (Larry Brown) suspended until the L2 games. Then again, the schedule hasn't been particularly daunting w/ only a pair of "true" road games and four non-board opponents. Their "best" win came at Michigan, who we've come to find out is a disappointment. This shapes up as SMU's toughest test to date as host Tulsa has double revenge from a season sweep last year. Take the points.

Tulsa may have four losses on its resume, but three of those were by five points or less. They rebounded from a 76-71 loss to Oregon State (where they led the entire first half) by blowing out Northern Arizona 90-55 last Tuesday. Six Golden Hurricane players ended up scoring in double figures in that easy win as the team jumped out to an early 19-0 lead and never looked back.  In fact, the didn't allow a point for the first 7:30 of the game! Unlike many of SMU's previous opponents, the Golden Hurricane can definitely score.  They average 80.5 PPG here at home and are 7-1 ATS after topping 80 pts in their previous game (3-0 ATS this season). This is a team that's beaten Wichita State and won at Oklahoma State. They've scored exactly 90 points in B2B home games.

Tulsa didn't shoot the ball well in either meeting with SMU last season (31.6% from the floor). Considering they are at 48.8% at home this season, I would expect a dramatic improvement tonight.  Both games LY were decided by single digits. SMU is also off a close call last week (Brown's 2nd game back) against Colorado where they won 70-66 as 6.5-point chalk. They've enjoyed hot shooting for the most part this season, but didn't make a single three-pointer against the Buffaloes in Las Vegas.  They also lost the rebounding battle.  In lined games, the Mustangs are only 3-4 ATS and three of their (SU) wins have been by five points or less. Tulsa has covered two of the three games in which they've been an underdog, both times taking the game outright. 8* Tulsa

10* Over Bengals/Broncos (8:25 ET): This is one of the lowest NFL totals I've seen all season. I suppose that this should not be all that surprising. We have two of the best defenses in the league here and a matchup that will likely determine who gets a 1st round bye in the AFC Playoffs (and who doesn't), thus it should be a playoff-like atmosphere in cold Denver Monday night.  But, in the modern NFL, a number like this is just far too low. Yes, neither defense allows 20 points per game and in the case of each offense, it is a "backup" QB at the helm. But both offenses are more than capable of helping send this one Over the total. Take the Over. These teams played to a 38-27 final (won by Cincinnati) last season on Monday Night Football, the third straight Over in series history. 

For Denver, Brock Osweiler is a "backup" in name only. He's clearly been a better option than the embattled Peyton Manning this season and he proved that by directing a 27-point first half last week in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately though, the Broncos failed to score after halftime. Incredibly, that was the offense's third consecutive game doing so! Troubling for sure, but that first half showed me what Osweiler can do. He'll be going against a Bengals defense that allows just 17.4 points per game (1st in the league), but I think the Broncos can easily top that number as Cincy has been a little fortunate to allow 19.4 yards per point this season.  Opposing QB's are completing 65% of their passes against this defense and two games ago, they gave up 33 points to Pittsburgh.  The thing to consider w/ Cincinnati is that they've been facing a lot of bad offenses lately (Houston, Cleveland twice, St. Louis and San Francisco). 

The Bengals offense averages 29 PPG on the road and had scored 30+ in three consecutive contests before Andy Dalton got hurt. Still though, with AJ McCarron at the helm, they scored 24 points LW against what is a pretty good 49ers defense (don't laugh!). They did struggle to run the ball, but McCarron showed me an ability to throw the ball downfield. Denver's defense has given up 24 or more points in four of the last seven games and again, the exceptions have come against the "lesser" offenses they have faced. There's no reason to believe that this can't be a 24-17 game, which of course means the Over would be a winner. 10* Over Bengals/Broncos

10* Toronto (8:05 ET):  I'm just not sold on the Bulls under Fred Hoiberg. They picked a convenient time (X-Mas Day) to be "at their best" as they never trailed at Oklahoma City and won the game 105-96 as 10-point underdogs. But the following night in Dallas, they quickly reverted back to their mediocre ways w/ a 118-111 loss (were 2.5-pt dogs). That dropped them to 1-4 SU/ATS their last five games overall.  They are barely outscoring their opponents this season, so I do not believe they are even owed the courtesy of being favored in this spot against a Toronto team that comes in at a lethal 9-2 ATS when taking points. The Raptors were a nice winner for me Saturday night (111-90 at Milwaukee) and I'll back them again here.

Though 11-5 SU at home, Chicago is just 5-11 ATS.  Thus, it shouldn't be too surprising to find this underachieving bunch at a money-burning 6-13 vs. the number when favored this season.  Only the Lakers, who are 11-20 ATS overall, have been worse at the betting window.  Defensively, this team is just not very good right now and the loss of Joakim Noah (out for at least another week) will continue to be felt on that end of the floor. Four of their last five opponents have topped 100 points and it's not even as if Dallas shot the ball lights out on Saturday (46.0 percent from the field).  The Bulls got lucky X-Mas Day in that Oklahoma City had its worst offensive showing of the season. Speaking of offense, the Bulls wasted a 53.8% shooting night against Dallas. Considering that matched a season-best (only third time above 50%!), I expect a decline in production there tonight.  After all, the Bulls rank 27th in the league in terms of offensive efficiency, one of only four teams to average under one point per possession. (The others are Brooklyn, the Lakers and Philadelphia. Not good company).

Toronto had been short-handed for awhile, but tonight looks like the first time we'll see them at full strength in quite some time as Jonas Valanciunas (having a career year) appears likely to return to the lineup. A broken hand kept him out for over a month and during that time both DeMarre Carroll and James Johnson also missed time. In addition to the outstanding record as an underdog, this is a revenge game for the Raptors, who were swept 4-0 in LY's season series with the Bulls. It seems odd that one side would dominate like that when you have two fairly evenly matched teams, so I look for tonight to be Toronto's night.  10* Toronto

9* Under Rangers/Predators (8:05 ET): Remember that fast start the Rangers got off to? Well, things have gone south in December and the team is just 4-8-2 in its last 14 games overall. The primary reason for the decline is a fairly dramatic increase in the number of goals allowed as they've dropped from #2 ranking in that department to a pedestrian 14th. Even the mighty Henrik Lundqvist has not been infallible w/ an .862 save percentage his L4 starts, including a disastrous outing last Sunday vs. Washington when he was pulled after allowing five goals on just 24 shots. He did improve though on Tuesday (stopped 17 of 19 shots) in a 3-2 OT win vs. Anaheim. Facing a Predators team that he shut out last month, I'm calling for a low-scoring game here. Take the Under.

I'll stop short of calling for a Rangers victory here as the Preds have not allowed more than three goals in any of their previous seven games. Pekka Rinne will likely get the call here and he's turned in a .930 save percentage his L4 starts and a 2.01 goals against average his last five. This is the first game of a back to back for Nashville (play at St. Louis) tomorrow night, but even so, backup Carter Hutton checks in w/ respectable numbers as well.  Unlike the Rangers, the Preds have played since the X-Mas break and the result was a 3-2 loss to Detroit.  Aside from a poor penalty killing unit (29th in the league), this team is just fine though as they are allowing only 26.7 shots per game this season, one of the best marks in the entire league (2nd fewest). That will serve them well here against a Rangers club that is bottom four in the league in shots per game.

Advanced stats somewhat predicted this Rangers decline as even before the losing streak begun as they've been at the bottom of the league in both Corsi and Fenwick for much of the year, which means they don't possess the puck nearly enough. Nashville, ironically, is 1st in the league in Fenwick and 4th in Corsi, so it is unlikely that the Rangers will have their sticks on the puck the majority of the time. That places a greater burden on Lundqvist, but I feel he'll be up to the challenge as he did turn in a 31-save shutout last month against this team. At the same time, the Rangers did allow only 19 shots on goal their previous game, so scoring should be hard to come by all-around in this one. 9* Under Rangers/Predators

10* Duke (8:00 ET):  You'd probably have to be a regular reader/client to remember this, but I did play this matchup last season, only that time I took a much bigger number with underdog Elon (+32.5) and covered easily as the final score was only 75-62. It was the third straight time that the Phoenix had covered here at Cameron Indoor, but the circumstances are a little different this year as Duke has had a lot of time off and promises to be in a surly mood after losing in their previous game, 77-75 to Utah (in overtime) as seven-point favorites. Elon has played a good number of "true" road games thus far, but nothing to prepare them for this giant step up in class.  I say lay the big number.

Duke was also coming off a long break when they faced Elon last year (12 days), but the circumstances were different as they were still unbeaten and coming off an impressive upset of Wisconsin, in Madison.  This time around, there's no threat of a letdown.  I do understand that being w/o Amile Jefferson is cause for concern, however, I don't think his absence was solely to blame for the loss to Utah. The team shot a woeful 29.9 percent from the field, easily their worst game of the season, and still nearly won on a neutral floor. I really think that result should be taken as somewhat of a positive, all things considered.  This is not a deep Blue Devils team, but that's less of an issue here having had more than a full week off. Also, at home, Duke is a perfect 7-0 SU and outscoring opponents by 26.5 points per game.

Elon shoots a lot of three-pointers, but doesn't necessarily make them (31.0 percent on the road).  They were blown out by Michigan earlier in the season (lost by 22) and this is clearly a much tougher opponent, even w/o Jefferson. Last week, the Phoenix pulled out a win at UNC-Asheville, 86-81, but the bad news there is that they are just 2-12 ATS after giving up 80+ points their previous game.  Coach K shouldn't have to worry about foul trouble from Marshall Plumlee (missed most of second half vs. Utah) here and leading scorer Grayson Allen is certainly likely to improve upon his 3 for 18 shooting performance against the Utes. With Elon allowing 77.5 PPG on the road this season, the Blue Devils' offense should have a nice bounce-back performance and the team should win handily.  10* Duke

8* Pittsburgh (2:30 ET):  Situationally, I give Pitt a big edge over Navy in this year's Military Bowl, even though it's a "true" road game. First off, the Panthers have been off for a month. Meanwhile, Navy had to play Army 16 days ago and didn't look very good in an ugly 21-17 win over their main rival. In fact, the Midshipmen haven't looked good in B2B games as they also were blown out by Houston, 52-31, in a game that decided the AAC West Division. I feel that 1st year HC Pat Narduzzi has Pitt trending in the right direction.  Three of his team's four losses during the regular season were by seven points or less and three came at the expense of Iowa, Notre Dame and North Carolina, all of whom had a chance to make the CFP. Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo was courted heavily by BYU during the last two weeks and I think that could serve as a distraction as well (though he ultimately decided to stay). Take the points.

This is Pitt's second straight year playing in the Military Bowl. Last year, they lost (as 3-pt favorites) to Houston by a score of 35-34.  I believe that they will be highly motivated to avenge that loss. They also will want to atone for a poor performance in the regular season finale, a 29-24 home loss to Miami (were 7-pt favorites there).  What I find interesting about this team is that often they were at their best on the road. They went 5-1 SU/ATS away from home this season while allowing just 18.0 points per game. That one loss came by a field goal, at Iowa.  Navy was 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) at home during the regular season, but my goodness did they get an easy slate. South Florida and Air Force were the only bowl teams that came calling to Annapolis and those games took place back in October.  

I think that Pitt's defense may be uniquely suited to slow down Keenan Reynolds and the Navy triple-option offense. First off, they've had plenty of time to prepare for it, which is always optimal. Secondly, they already faced Georgia Tech. While the numbers weren't great against the Yellow Jackets, the Panthers did win the game and that was just w/ the standard week of preparation. Against the run, this defense is #20 in FBS, allowing just 126.1 yards per game. They also get after the QB well.  Taking points, Pitt is 4-2 ATS this season. While it was a different coaching staff, this is a legit revenge spot for Pitt as well as they lost here in Annapolis two seasons ago, 24-21, as five-point chalk.  8* Pittsburgh

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET):  The Giants come in off a crushing defeat last week at home at the hands of the unbeaten Panthers, a game you could argue that they had no business even being in with or without Odell Beckham Jr.  OBJ got himself suspended for his actions during the course of that contest and with the G-Men's playoff hopes now on life support, I can't imagine that many will be interested in backing "Big Blue" this week in Minnesota. But I am as this spot offers another one of those "buy low" spots as I don't think the Vikings should be laying more than a field goal here, even though they are now a NFC-best 11-3 against the spread. I'd say that record is due to regress, don't you?  Take the points here.

I was on the Giants last week and was thrilled to see them "slip in through the back door" against Carolina. The offense topped 30 points for the second straight week, but I'll have to admit right off the bat that doing so here w/o the services of OBJ is going to be hard to accomplish. Doing so even w/ Beckham would have been tough against this Vikings defense, which is allowing just 19.4 points per game.  But as you often hear, the pointspread can be the "great equalizer" in situations such as these and wouldn't you know that this will be the most points Minnesota has had to lay in any game all season! That's thanks to last week's number vs. Chicago (won 38-17) actually being bet down. But due to the general inconsistency of second-year QB Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson not being 100 percent, I don't expect a repeat of that offensive performance here.

There's also the issue of Minnesota "knowing" it is in the playoff field as it would take an extraordinary set of events for them not to make it. Next week's game at Green Bay could be "for all the marbles" in the NFC North and I wouldn't be shocked if the players were already pointing towards that game and looking past this one. Meanwhile, New York MUST win here in order to stay alive and I look for the team to be out to prove a point that they can win w/o OBJ in the lineup. I don't know if they can, but certainly the points are generous in this Sunday night matchup.  8* NY Giants

10* Over Nuggets/Thunder (7:05 ET): The Oklahoma City "Under train" continued X-Mas Day as for the first time all season they failed to hold a lead at any point in the game, losing 105=96 at home to Chicago. They shot just 38.5% in the loss, one of their worst efforts on the offensive end of the floor all year. It was the first time in two weeks that they failed to break triple digits (100 points), a span of seven games.  Tonight, I expect improvement as they take on a downtrodden Denver team that likely will provide little resistance at the defensive end. The Nuggets played last night, scoring only 86 points themselves, but that was against the best defensive team in the league (San Antonio). This should be a high scoring game. Take the Over.

When these teams met earlier this year, the end result was a 117-93 win and cover (-12.5) for the Thunder. The game stayed Under the total, but that's a bit misleading here as the O/U line was all the way up at 113.5, significantly higher than where the number opened up for tonight's rematch.  OKC shot 52.3 percent overall in that first game, including 13 of 25 from three-point range and they didn't miss any free throws either. I should point out that Friday's game vs. Chicago was seemingly on pace to go Over the entire time. That was until the final five minutes when the scoring came to a screeching halt. Non Westbrook/Durant starters were a woeful 5 of 22 from the field. Take Enes Kanter (only other player in double figures) out of the equation and the rest of the team was a horrific 11 of 40 from the field.  The supporting cast is likely to improve tonight. 

Offensive improvement from the Thunder is likely here because the Nuggets are awful defensively.  They allow 103.3 points per game.  OKC is second in the league in terms of offensive efficiency, averaging 108 points per 100 possessions. Denver is 27th in defensive efficiency.  The last four meetings between these two Northwest Division rivals have all seen at least 207 total points scored.  The key here will be short-handed Denver scoring enough to "help" send this one Over. Short-handed as they may be, they should shoot better than the last time they faced OKC (38.5 percent).  10* Over Nuggets/Thunder

10* Under Maple Leafs/Islanders (6:05 ET):  This will be the first time the Islanders have taken the ice in six days. The last time we saw them, they had broken out of a recent scoring slump w/ a 5-2 win over Anaheim. Take note that in their three previous contests, they had totaled only two goals and lost all three times. Make no mistake about it; this has been an Under team this season at 12-20-3 and that's the way I see this evening's game going as they get a visit from Toronto. The Leafs had been involved in a number of high-scoring affairs prior to the X-Mas break, that was until their last game when they fell at Arizona, 3-2 (I had the 'Yotes!). With this being the first game for both teams after such a long break, I think rust will be a factor.  Take the Under.

The Isles rank number three in the league in fewest goals allowed (2.3 per game) and have the third-ranked penalty kill as well. They've done a good job at minimizing the number of shots they've faced recently, holding their last five opponents to an average of only 26.2 per game.  As of press, it is not known who will be between the pipes tonight, but it hardly matters as both Thomas Greiss (.933 save percentage) and Jaroslav Halak (.923) have been really solid.  Both have been even better of late. In five of the team's last six games, the duo has allowed two goals or less. Overall, the Under is 7-3 in their 10 December games.

One area of concern for New York, however, is on the power play. They are just 1 for their last 19 there and it's a big reason why they rank a pedestrian 12th in the league in goals per game. As I said before, they scored just two goals during a three-game losing streak prior to beating Anaheim last week.  Of course, Toronto is just 20th in the league in goals per game and the Under has gone 7-3 for them this season, on the road, when the total is 5.5.  10* Under Maple Leafs/Islanders

8* Miami (1:00 ET): Remember a couple of weeks ago when I said the Dolphins would be a good matchup for the Giants (and the G-Men ended up delivering a 31-24 win)? Well, I feel the same holds true for the Fish this week against the Colts. When it comes to winning the total yardage battle, these are the two worst teams in the entire league. Miami has now been outgained in 12 of its 14 games this season (442-231 by San Diego last week), but Indianapolis has been even worse, getting outgained in 13 of 14 games after putting up a paltry 160 yds in LW's devastating 16-10 home loss to division rival Houston. The ridiculous notion that there was little drop off from Andrew Luck to Matthew Hasselbeck has thankfully been dispelled and the bottom line here is that the Colts are simply an awful football team right now. Lay the points.

Dolphins' interim head coach Dan Campbell, flawed as he may be, probably still thinks he can earn himself the gig on a permanent basis with a strong finish to the season. I would definitely advise the front office AGAINST that, even if the team was to win its last two games (New England could rest starters next week).  Campbell promised to re-emphasize Lamar Miller and the running game, but that simply hasn't happened. Granted, the game "got away" from Miami rather quickly last week, but that's no excuse for Miller to have only 11 touches, especially since the week prior he had only 12 carries and had gained 7.4 yards per carry.  There is talent at the skill positions on this Miami offense and they should be able to exploit an Indianapolis defense which ranks 25th against the run and 29th against the pass.

This is more of a play against the Colts, than "on" the Dolphins.  Chuck Pagano, just one year removed from the AFC Championship Game, is a lame-duck coach in my mind as it's very likely he's getting fired at the end of the year. Thanks to last week's loss, the team's chances of even getting to the playoffs is now incredibly slim and they know it. Hasselbeck, a 40-year old QB nearing retirement, is really "beaten up" right now by his own admission. Don't be surprised to see third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst (aka "Clipboard Jesus") on the field before this one is over.  The Colts are a team that really benefited from a lot of luck (not just Andrew) the L3 seasons, particularly in close games. This year, they have been outscored by 87 points (3rd worst in the league) and have managed just 36 points total the L3 games. They are 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS vs. the AFC East the L3 seasons. 8* Miami

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): I would reckon that few will be interested in laying points with the Bills right now as they are out of playoff contention following B2B losses to teams from the NFC East. But I feel that a visit from a Dallas team that's down to its fourth different starting QB this year will bring a temporary reprieve for Rex Ryan's team this week. The Bills have actually lost all three of their non-conference games thus far, including 35-25 to Washington last week, a game that saw them display no sense of urgency whatsoever (fell behind 21-0 by halftime). But they did end up gaining 450 yards in the loss and after a fairly challenging schedule the last several weeks (5 of last 6 games were on the road!), I see them dominating in this drop in class. Lay the points.

The quarterback that Dallas must turn to here is Kellen Moore, who you may remember from being College Football's all-time winningest QB at Boise State. Needless to say, I don't expect Mr. Moore to have the same kind of success here at the pro level.  Last week, when facing a similar Jets defense, did not go well as he tossed three interceptions despite not even playing the entire game. He also completed only one pass longer than 15 yards, which has been a major issue for this Cowboys' offense w/o Tony Romo. While a surprisingly good defense has been keeping them in games for the most part (I cashed them in the 1st Half last wk), the Dallas offense has been held under 20 points in four consecutive games. As much as the Bills defense has surprisingly struggled under Ryan, I anticipate them having a "field day" here against a QB making his first career start.

Over the last three seasons, there have been eight times where Buffalo has lost B2B games straight up. They have responded by going 7-1 SU/ATS their next time out, including a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS this season under Ryan. The one time they did get to play at home since Thanksgiving saw them beat Houston 30-21 as three-point favorites, a win that now looks a little better in retrospect. The Bills still have managed to maintain a positive scoring differential for the year (ever so slightly) while the Cowboys are being outscored by 5.5 points per game. At home, the Buffalo offense (#1 in the league in rushing!) should have a big day, especially if TE Charles Clay is back. 8* Buffalo

10* Under Patriots/Jets (1:00 ET): If you're a regular reader/client of mine, then you know that I'm a firm believer that when you have two division rivals playing for a second time, fewer points should be expected. I expect that to be the case here in a critical game for both the Patriots and Jets, which should have a "playoff-like" vibe to it. New England has regained control of homefield advantage in the AFC and can clinch the #1 overall seed w/ a win here. The Jets, who could finish 11-5 SU and still MISS the playoffs, desperately needs to keep winning and hope either Kansas City or Pittsburgh slips up once in these last two weeks (not likely). The first meeting of the year (where I cashed the Jets +9) was surprisingly high-scoring (Patriots won 30-23) even though neither team really put up a ton of yards. I expect a much lower scoring game this week. Take the Under.

In that Week 7 win over the Jets, New England almost exclusively went to the pass as they gained just 16 yards rushing - for the entire game! Few teams have had success running the ball this year against the Jets, who are #2 in the league in that department (just 82.8 YPG allowed).  The issue here is that Tom Brady won't likely have the same success passing the ball like in the first matchup as his receivers have been "dropping like flies" (injuries) throughout the season. The Pats did manage to score 30+ points for the first time in seven weeks last Sunday, but consider that a) they were playing the Titans and b) one of their three touchdowns came from the defense.

The Jets are top five in the league in total defense and top eight in scoring (just 19.4 PPG allowed). Besides the first meeting with the Patriots, there has been only one other game where they allowed more than 24 points and it too came on the road (at Oakland). The team's last three games have all stayed Under and five of the last six have seen 43 or fewer total points scored. However, what surprised me the most when handicapping this rematch is the fact New England actually allows fewer points per game than the Jets (19.2). Take away the three non-offensive TD's Philadelphia scored against them a few weeks back and this unit's recent string of performances look all the more impressive. 10* Under Patriots/Jets

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET):  I can make a pretty compelling case that the Falcons, who won for the first time since October last week, are being undervalued here. Consider that when they visited Carolina just two weeks ago, they were 8.5-point dogs. Now, at home, the line is nearly the same. I realize that the Panthers (still unbeaten!) won that first matchup 38-0, but Atlanta was really sloppy there, turning the ball over four times and honestly had the look of a team that gave up early. Revenge for that, plus trying to be the team to end Carolina's unbeaten season should have them motivated for this week's rematch and I'm taking the points.

Nine of Atlanta's 14 games this season have been decided by one score, so as an underdog they do seem like a really nice value. In fact, this will be the be just the second time all season that Matt Ryan and company have been asked to take more than a field goal from the linesmakers.  They are 4-2 ATS as underdogs so far this season w/ four outright wins, including last week's 23-17 "upset" of the Jaguars, which I was on.  The turnover bug really sunk this team's fortunes after a 5-0 SU start, but hopefully that problem can be rectified here (they only had one TO last wk).  Also, this has been a good home team all throughout the "Ryan era," so taking points should be viewed almost as a premium. The Falcons are 10-5 ATS as home dogs since 2008 (year Ryan was drafted) including 6-1 ATS their last seven.

Carolina's last two games on the road have seen their defense turn in less than stellar performances.  First, they gave up 38 points to New Orleans and then last week saw them allow the Giants to get back in the game in what was arguably the closest call of their so-far perfect season (won 38-35). Some might think that "close call" (got backdoored) might serve as somewhat of a "wake-up call," but I think that as the pressure mounts, it's going to be difficult for these Panthers to continue to cover spreads as they are always going to get every team's "best shot." They certainly didn't get Atlanta's "best shot" the first go-around, but will here and consider that half of Carolina's victories this season have been one-score games. 10* Atlanta

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): Well, I'll go back to the well with the Browns (fourth straight week I'm playing them!), who to this point have certainly given me some "mixed results."  They did pick up a rare SU win when I took them (as a favorite) two weeks ago at home against San Francisco.  That was Johnny Manziel's first game back as the starter and though the 49ers are admittedly awful, he did appear to give the offense a bit of a "spark" (481 total yards). Then last week in Seattle, Manziel led an 80-yard touchdown drive on the first possession of the game. From there though, things quickly went south as Cleveland gained only 150 yards the rest of the way and ended up losing 30-13 (as 16-pt dogs). It should be pointed out, however, that the Browns were in position to cover until a late field goal was kicked by the Seahawks.

This is the second straight time that Kansas City is facing an opponent that just played Seattle the previous week.  Last week, it was injury-riddled Baltimore, whom they thrashed 34-14 for their eighth consecutive win.  With only home games left against Cleveland and Oakland, Chiefs fans can go ahead and start making their playoff plans.  But laying this big of a number could be problematic for an offense that too often bogs down in the red zone and settles for field goals. That was the mentality that I espoused when I went against them two weeks ago vs. similarly downtrodden San Diego and it "played to perfection" as KC won by a score of 10-3 (were favored to win by double digits). That game still stands as the only time all season that KC has closed as chalk of more than a TD - until now. Last week's 34-point output against the Ravens saw them benefit from not one, but two defensive scores.

Over the last 12 seasons, teams that are getting double digits for a second consecutive week (like the Browns are here) are cashing at nearly a 67% rate. That makes sense as it's usually a team the public has no affinity for and thus is likely to burn them. Chances are that the underdog in this situation is coming off a blowout loss (like the Browns are here) and it thus presents an opportunity to "buy low." At the same time, I'll "sell high" on the Chiefs. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Kings/Coyotes (9:05 ET): Uncharacteristically, Los Angeles has given up five goals in three of its last four games. Remember that this is team ranks second in the league in fewest goals allowed. One of those three games came w/ Jonathan Quick (who will be starting tonight) not in goal. But Quick's performance in the last game would certainly qualify as shocking as he gave up four goals on only 22 shots (San Jose scored one empty-netter). Obviously, you'd expect him to improve moving forward, but even so I think we have a recipe for an Over in tonight's game at Arizona. Even after B2B wins, the Coyotes still rank 29th in the league in goals allowed, so I look for this one to be high-scoring. Take the Over.

As of press time, it is unknown as to just who will be between the pipes for the 'Yotes. From their perspective, it would be preferable if it was Louis Domingue, who has turned in a 1.62 goals against average in three starts since being called up. However, with the team playing B2B nights (today and tomorrow), they may have to call on Anders Linback here. Lindback has struggled all season (.831 save percentage L4 games!) and has a 4.20 career goals against average against the Kings. Even if Dominigue does play, I'm not convinced he can maintain his recent level of play.  Remember that when he was first called into duty this year (in a relief effort), he gave up four goals on only 10 shots against Columbus.

Another reason not to trust Quick in this spot is that he was the one in goal for both games this year against Arizona and he's been scored on seven times (facing just 47 shots) and the Kings lost both times. Though the Coyotes are off B2B low-scoring wins, remember that this is a team that had seen 21 total goals scored in its two games prior and they'd also given up at least four goals in seven of eight games. The Kings did have 36 shots on goal their last game, so they should have scored more, and they've actually averaged 38 per game in the two losses to Arizona.  On the road this year, LA averages over 32 shots per game while giving up over 31. The Over is 4-1 in Coyotes' home games this year when the total is 5.0. 10* Over Kings/Coyotes

10* Nebraska (9:15 ET):  Nebraska is the second (but not the last) 5-7 SU team we've encountered this bowl season. The first was San Jose State (last Saturday) and I took them. The reward there was a 27-16 win and cover for a team that actually was still favored (against Georgia State), though the money had steadily been pouring in AGAINST them all week. Here, we find our 5-7 SU team in a more logical role of underdog, but the value is just as good as I expect the Cornhuskers to play with a mighty chip on their collective shoulder here in the Foster Farms Bowl against a UCLA team that could very well be disinterested. The Bruins limped to an 8-4 SU finish to the season and certainly had bigger aspirations than playing in this game at the end of the season. Take the points.

Recall that Nebraska is the ONLY team this year to defeat Michigan State, who is in the College Football Playoff. I took the points with them that night and while it was a lucky win (blown call by the officials), remember what I said in my analysis for that game. Arguably, the 'Huskers have been the "unluckiest" team in College Football this season. Six of their seven losses have come by eight points or less, four of them by a field goal margin or less and another was on a last second hail mary. I was happy for the team to get into a bowl as they are actually much better than their SU record indicates and likely due to have a breakout season next year in what will be Mike Riley's second season. I look for this to be a very motivated underdog Saturday night and note Nebraska is 3-1 ATS this season when taking points.

  UCLA was a team that thrived in close games last season, going 6-1 SU in those that were decided by one score. It was then a bit surprising to see them go 3-1 in such games this year. But they were beaten by double digits three times (USC, Arizona State, Stanford) and failed to live up to the hype of having all those returning starters + highly touted freshman QB Josh Rosen. Though many of the players have changed, Nebraska does have double revenge here for a pair of losses to UCLA in 2012 and 2013.  Note that even in defeat, the Cornhuskers outgained Iowa in their regular season finale, 433-250.  I believe an outright upset here is certainly possible. 10* Nebraska

10* Under Redskins/Eagles (8:25 ET):  This one falls under the domain of a divisional rematch, which usually end up being lower scoring than the "original." Such was the case Thursday w/ Chargers-Raiders. I made a bad decision in that one, electing to only go with the 1st Half Under as it was the second half where the scoring screeched to a grinding halt. Here, we have a matchup of two teams that played to a 23-20 final the first go around and curiously the total is higher for the rematch. Perhaps that has to do w/ both teams more recent outputs, but I expect this game to have a more "playoff-like" mentality as there's a chance (if Washington wins) the NFC East could actually be decided here.  Take the Under.

When handicapping the Redskins, one must obviously consider the strong home-road dichotomy that is in play. Prior to winning in Chicago two weeks ago, this is a team that didn't have a road win to its name all season. It's not even really QB Kirk Cousins to blame for the decline in offensive production when the Redskins take their act on the road, but rather an anemic rushing attack which averages a paltry 54 yards per game outside of D.C. Overall, the offense averages just 18.3 points per game on the road, well under its overall season average. The 24 points they scored two weeks ago against the Bears was their highest scoring game on the road all season. 

Washington is 4-2 Over on the road because of a defense that has surrendered over 30 PPG in those contests, but I'm not sure Philadelphia has the offense to take appropriate advantage of this. Take out the three non-offensive TD's they scored against the Patriots a few weeks ago and over the last six games, the team has scored just 104 points total or an average of 17.3 per game. Now, they did gain over 400+ total yards LW vs. Arizona and they will be able to move the ball against this Washington defense. But I don't see this turning into any kind of shootout w/ the Eagles averaging just 21.7 PPG at home this year. Consider that when these teams met earlier in the year, Philadelphia was shutout in the first half.  10* Under Redskins/Eagles

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): After recording a rare (and do I mean RARE) win eight days ago here at home and then winning at Brooklyn, the T'wolves resumed their losing ways, falling to Boston and San Antonio by double digits. The loss to the Spurs dropped them to a miserable 2-13 ATS at home this season and they've won just four times straight up!  This is a team that's gone just 2-10 ATS at the betting window in the month of December, but they've remained competitive (well until the L2 games) as five of those losses have come by six points or fewer. A surprisingly decent start to the season had them somewhat overvalued in the early part of the month, but now more adequately priced, I believe them to be a great value tonight vs. Indiana.  Take the points.

Last month, these teams played and it ended up being a four-point game in Indiana.  That's notable because it was one of the few times Indiana failed to cover in November (went 11-2 ATS) and the line there was -7.5, meaning the number here definitely looks to be inflated. That's somewhat due to Minnesota's struggles here at home. But, for the Pacers, December has not gone as well as November did. They're just 4-8 ATS this month, including four consecutive non-covers and they've lost three in a row in straight up fashion. Though there's certainly been a significant shift in the balance of power between East and West, it's interesting to note that the Pacers are just 2-10 ATS in non-conference games this year (4-8 SU). 

Another fortunate thing for Minnesota here is that Indiana has dropped five in a row on the road. Four of those have come against Western Conference teams and all but one was decided by double digits. They've also allowed a lot of points in those games, giving up 106+ four times. That's more good news for the T'wolves, who are coming off one of their worst offensive showings of the season (scored season-low 83 points), but that is somewhat excusable as it came against the best defensive team in the league, San Antonio.  For Indiana, Paul George has not been feeling well and his game has suffered w/ a 31.6 shooting percentage the L7 games. 8* Minnesota

10* Toronto (5:05 ET): Neither of these teams had to play on X-Mas, so in that regard it's somewhat of a "fair fight." However, there can be no denying as to who has had the better season to this point between the Raptors & Bucks and thus I'll gladly lay the short number, even on the road. Toronto has already beaten Milwaukee twice this season, both times at home, by scores of 106-87 and 90-83. Since then, the Bucks' offensive numbers have gone up, particularly during a three-game ATS win streak. But consider their wins have come at the expense of Philadelphia and Phoenix, neither of whom is very good (particularly the former). The Raptors also last played on Tuesday, giving them a full extra day to prepare here.

After suffering a surprise loss at home to Sacramento on Sunday (were 5.5-pt chalk), Toronto rebounded w/ a win over Dallas, but again failed to cover the spread, this time by just half a point. While the final margin ended up being rather close, take note that the Raptors led that one by as many as 16 at the end of the first quarter.  After shooting 37 percent or worse from the field three times in the previous four games, the offensive production they got against the Mavs was certainly a welcome sight. I expect we'll continue to see an uptick in their overall shooting moving forward. DeMar DeRozan has averaged 27.1 PPG his last eight games and it looks like the team will be healthier than it's been in awhile here after only nine players dressed for the Dallas game thanks to this being the most rest they've had between games all season.

Milwaukee has been arguably the biggest disappointment in the Eastern Conference to this point as they are six games below .500 and being outscored by over five points per game. They were a playoff team last year, but in "name only" as they still finished w/ a sub-.500 record. Therefore, the fact that so many teams in the Eastern Conference are improved this season has really hurt them. So too has a lack of defense as they're giving up 102 PPG. They are also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Not only are the Bucks 1-8 SU their L9 vs. the Raptors, but they have dropped three in a row to them here at home. 10* Toronto

8* Kentucky (12:00 ET):  Ever since John Calipari came to Lexington, UK has owned this high-profile, often-intense, in-state rivalry. Coach Cal's Wildcats are 7-1 SU vs. Louisville, including two wins in the NCAA Tournament. They also won LY's meeting 58-50, on the road, as five-point favorites. Yet, coming into this year, it is UK that desperately needs this game. By their own lofty standards, this has been a "down year" in Lexington as Kentucky has opened 9-2 SU w/ losses in two of the last four games. That includes a seven-point loss to Ohio State (as 10-pt favorites) exactly one week ago. But they haven't lost at Rupp Arena and that's where this game is taking place, so I'll gladly lay the short number in a game UK "has to have."

L'ville has played just one "true" road game to this point and it resulted in a loss to #1 Michigan State (71-67 as 5.5-pt dogs). No shame there. However, the rest of the Cardinals' schedule to this point has been somewhat shameful, so take their +22.0 point per game scoring differential w/ a grain of salt. Since losing to Sparty, Rick Pitino's team has hosted the following opponents: Grand Canyon, Eastern Michigan, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Missouri-KC and Utah Valley State. Kentucky has at least played Duke, UCLA and Ohio State. I feel they're more battle-tested to this point and also fresher as L'ville last played on Wednesday.

Getting Kentucky in this price range, at home, has been rare to say the least. They are 10-3 ATS as home favorites of three points or less, but only one of those instances occurred in the L3 seasons. Still, you get an idea for the kind of value we're getting here. Consider that under Coach Cal, the Wildcats are 61-1 SU at home against non-conference competition! They've also covered all three times they've played Louisville the L3 years. These teams have experienced very different results at the betting window thus far in 2015 (L'ville 6-2 ATS, UK 3-8), but those respective records are certainly due to start evening out. Though "down" from last season, Kentucky's offensive rebounding and defensive numbers remain strong. Opponents are shooting just 43.2% on two-point attempts against them. At the same time, their own 24.3 shooting percentage on three-pointers at home is due to increase. 8* Kentucky

8* Connecticut (11:00 AM ET):  While Bob Diaco's UConn team certainly seems to bring in one of the "lower profiles" of any bowl team, the fact is no bowler played a less challenging schedule than their opponent, Marshall. This edition of the Thundering Herd is nowhere near as good as last year's, so I'd say don't be fooled by their 9-3 SU record or the fact they are favored here.  From a strength of schedule perspective, this is one of the biggest mismatches of the entire bowl season as Marshall had perhaps the easiest schedule of any FBS team this season. Also, UConn's defense (19.7 PPG allowed) will easily be the best they've faced this season.  In what shapes up to be a pretty low-scoring game, I'm taking the points here.

Because of that defense, UConn is the top Under team among bowlers w/ 10 of their 12 regular season games going that way. They had won three straight to become bowl eligible before getting drubbed in the regular season finale, 27-3 by Temple (Owls were playing for a spot in AAC Champ Game). It was also a challenging spot for the Huskies as they had not only become bowl eligible (1st time since 2010!) the week prior, but were off a massive upset of previously unbeaten Houston.  This defense allows just 187 passing yards per game and held over half of their opponents to 17 points or less (7 of 12). Now, the offense is going to have to score some and that burden likely falls on do-everything RB Arkeel Newsome, who is 18th in the country w/ 1,621 total yards. I believe this team is going to be very "fired up" to play in its first bowl in six seasons.

You may notice that Marshall actually allows fewer points per game than UConn. But, again, that's misleading due to the "cupcake" schedule that the Thundering Herd faced.  While UConn might be just 1-5 SU/ATS vs. fellow bowlers, at least they own the distinction of handing Houston its only loss. Marshall went 1-3 SU/ATS against the four bowl teams it faced, twice losing by double digits. One of those games was the regular season finale against Western Kentucky, which resulted in a 49-28 loss. All of their strong defensive efforts came against the worst teams on the schedule. I believe that points will be at a premium here and thus backing the underdog is the way to go. 8* Connecticut

10* Over Spurs/Rockets (8:05 ET):  While Golden State continues to "hog" all the national headlines, San Antonio has impressively been able to keep up a historic pace itself. They now own the best per game point differential through 30 games in league history (+13.6). That's after winning their last seven games, six of those victories coming by at least 14 points. There's a lot of reasons for their success, but one of the primary ones has to do w/ the defensive end of the floor, where they are - by far - the best team in the league. Incredibly, they are allowing just 88.8 points per game this year, which is 6 PPG fewer than the second best team. But X-Mas Day brings an excellent opportunity to play the Over as they hit the road to play defensively inept Houston.

The Rockets have been one of the league's bigger disappointments through 30 games. They've fought their way back to .500, but clearly that's not the record most expected coming on the heels of LY's run to the Western Conference Finals. Kevin McHale was made the early season scapegoat and things have turned around since his firing as the team is now 10-5 SU since November 27th. But they did lose Wednesday night in Orlando, 104-101, a result that means they've now gone Under in five straight games. That's obviously surprising because their games are, on average, among the highest scoring in the league (avg of 209.7 PPG).  But tonight's O/U line is way below what they're used to. Back at the end of November, right after the coaching change was made, there was a six-game stretch where every total was 202 pts or lower. Houston went 4-2 Over in those games.

This will be the first matchup of these Southwest Division rivals this season, but note that the last three of the 2014-15 season all went Over the total.  As stated earlier, Houston is among the worst defensive teams in the league, giving up 105.6 PPG. San Antonio scored 110, 110 and 104 in its last three games vs. Houston, so what we'll need from the Rockets is for them to come close to their YTD scoring average of 104.1 PPG.  They did in two of those last three matchups with the Spurs, who are shooting 52.3% from the floor their L5 games. 8* Over Spurs/Rockets

10* Cleveland (5:00 ET): This will be the first meeting between these two since last year's NBA Finals, which were of course won by Golden State in six games (after trailing 2-1 in the series). But the Cavaliers team the Warriors will see here is going to be demonstrably different than the one they faced in June. For starters, both Kyrie Irving AND Kevin Love will be on the court. Irving was lost in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and Love didn't play at all. No matter how invincible the Warriors are perceived to be, that's a big deal when examining the previous meeting. Also, in addition to being much better defensively this season, you get the feeling that the Cavs have been pointing to this game all season long. Meanwhile, Golden State has had to deal w/ basically taking every team's best shot, night in and night out. Take the points.

Cleveland comes into this game having won six straight. Wednesday's win over the Knicks was less than enthralling, but ended up being the latest in a string of strong defensive efforts. They've held four of the last five opponents below 90 points, certainly an unfair benchmark to expect here, but this simply reinforces my earlier statement that the Cavs are a much improved team defensively this season. Last year, they entered the playoffs ranked 18th in terms of defensive efficiency, essentially disqualifying them from the profile of a typical NBA Champion. So far this year, they rank a far more impressive sixth. While you do have to adjust for pace of play, it is worth noting that Cleveland is giving up 6.8 points per game fewer than Golden State. 

Being an underdog of this magnitude is almost unprecedented for a LeBron James team. Taking points this year, the Cavs are 2-1 ATS this year, but the one non-cover came w/ LeBron out of the lineup (at Miami). Note that this is a larger spread than all but one of the games from the Finals and that's w/ Irving and Love back in the lineup. That one game was Game 2, the first after the Irving injury, and Cleveland of course won that game outright. This shapes up as Golden State's toughest test of the season so far and eventually their 67 percent ATS record is due to regress. 10* Cleveland

10* Over Bulls/Thunder (2:30 ET): Oklahoma City's string of Unders continues to astound me (14-1 Under L15 games). This is a team that ranks second in the league in terms of offensive efficiency (trailing obviously Golden State). They average 108.5 points per 100 possessions and lately that number has actually gone up, not down. They, in fact, have averaged 108.8 points per game their L5 after a 120-point effort against the Lakers Tuesday night. However, the real key when it comes to the O/U results of late is that their opponents haven't been holding up their "end of the bargain." Obviously, give some credit to the Thunder defense, but there's been some bad teams in the mix there, most notably the Lakers twice as they've scored just 78 and 85 points in those two games. Chicago will be a different challenge defensively. Take the Over.

The Bulls have gone Over in three straight games. The numbers are clearly going to be skewed because of the quadruple overtime game vs. Detroit. But even that was a 105-105 game at the end of regulation, which would have meant the Over had already cashed before extra time.  They followed that up w/ only a 91-point effort against the Knicks (allowed 107), but then two days later scored 102 (but still lost by three points to Brooklyn). While Chicago's offensive efficiency numbers may not be ideal, they still come in averaging over 100 PPG. However, the real difference between this team under Fred Hoiberg and previous editions under Tom Thibodeau is on the defensive end. On the road, they are allowing 102.3 PPG. That number does not include the Detroit game as it was at home.

These teams already played once this year (November 5th) and it went down as a 104-98 final in favor of the Bulls. That was an Under, but the total was several points higher than it is here. Both teams shot the ball relatively well from three-point range and especially from the free throw line.  It was a 57-50 game (again, in favor of Chicago) at halftime. So, it was odd that the game stayed Under by double digits. The "issue" ended up being the third quarter, particularly the last three minutes which saw only seven total points scored. From the time that there was three minutes left in the quarter to the one minute mark, just a single point was scored. This will be a different story as it's a great value on both sides - but particularly with OKC who has been involved in only one game w/ a closing total below 200 points and just five under 204.  10* Over Bulls/Thunder

8* Miami (12:00 ET):  For two teams that certainly wouldn't classify one another as "rivals," the history of Pelicans vs. Heat is certainly quite fascinating, at least to me. Believe it or not, New Orleans is an eye-popping 39-17 ATS vs. Miami, including a 2-0 sweep last year (Heat were banged up & not as good, Pelicans were seemingly a team "on the rise"). At one point (from 2005-2010), the Pelicans covered an amazing 11 straight times against the Heat! What followed was a 5-0 SU/ATS run by Miami. But that came to a halt in the final year of LeBron being on South Beach and then came LY's sweep. However, as is now quite clear, New Orleans is having a really down year while Miami is in the midst of a resurgence. I'm laying the points here.

When it comes to "Christmas Day experience," the Heat are not lacking. They've played almost every year on the Holiday since the NBA first instituted these games, including an upset of Cleveland last year here at home. In fact, that was the franchise's sixth consecutive win on Christmas Day. Meanwhile, one would have to go all the way back to 2008 to find the last time the Pelicans won on XMas day (back in the Chris Paul era). Another key edge for Miami in this one is on the defensive end of the floor. New Orleans currently ranks second to last in the league (only Lakers are worse) in terms of defensive efficiency, giving up 108.3 points per 100 possessions. Miami is top five, giving up nearly 10 points per 100 possessions fewer. They give up nearly 13 points fewer per game than the Pelicans.

The Heat are off a home loss Tuesday night, 93-92 to Detroit (as 2.5-pt favorites). That was a game where they led by 16 points after the first quarter. Three pointers decided that game as the Pistons were 15 of 29 from three-point range while the Heat were only 4 of 18. I anticipate a bounce back here. New Orleans is off B2B wins, but those were over injury-riddled Denver and Portland teams. The season-best defensive effort against Portland needs to be taken with a "grain of salt" as the Blazers were w/o Damian Lillard. The Pelicans are 3-13 SU on the road (-8.1 PPG) and 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) vs. the Eastern Conference. I've previously discussed how the East is now the deeper of the two conferences, so it shouldn't be all that surprising to find the Heat 8-1 SU vs. the West. 8* Miami

8* Cincinnati (8:00 ET):  The respective records of the teams involved here would seem to indicate that there's some value with the favorite, but as you (hopefully) know by now, handicapping these bowl games solely by record is a big mistake. In fact, Cincinnati actually opened as the slight one-point favorite here in the Hawaii Bowl against 10-3 San Diego State. The reason records can be so misleading this time of year is that you obviously must account for the strength of conference and with San Diego State, they simply did not perform well outside of the Mountain West this year. In fact, they were 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS after the non-conference portion of the schedule concluded w/ the only win coming at the expense of FCS school San Diego. I went against the Aztecs in the MWC Championship Game and will do so again here. Take the points.

Cincinnati, on the other hand, is a much better team than their 7-5 SU record indicates. Defensively, they did have their issues late in the year, particularly in an embarrassing loss to South Florida. But they ended the regular season w/ a 19-16 win at East Carolina and the fact is that the American was much better than the Mountain West this year.  Three of the Bearcats' losses came at the hands of Memphis, Temple and Houston, all of whom won at least 10 games. They did beat a couple of bowl teams, Miami and UConn.  Regardless of whom is in at quarterback, Gunner Kiel or Hayden Moore, expect this offense to put up big numbers here. The Bearcats rank 5th in the nation in yards per game (560.4) and average 36.1 points per game. Both Kiel and Moore have 500+ yard passing days to their credit this season.

San Diego State is a team that benefited tremendously from ideal field position in conference play.  Unlike Cincinnati, this is a team that does not pass much, so if they get behind that could mean big trouble.  In fact, that was the case in all three of their losses this year.  In an interesting twist, QB Maxwell Smith is going to try and play here despite a torn ACL suffered in the regular season finale. I find it difficult to trust a team that passes only 18 times per game facing a high-octane offense like Cincy's and I question the line move as well.  After poor bowl performances each of the L2 years, the Bearcats show up ready to roll here. 8* Cincinnati

8* Santa Clara (11:00 ET):  Conference play has already begun out on the West Coast and for St. Mary's, Monday's result at the betting window was the same as it was for every non-conference game. (Note: By betting against the Gaels early, I was able to get a favorable line in their game at Cal. More on that later). That result was a cover as they downed San Francisco by a score of 74-52 as 17.5-point chalk, improving their ATS record to a perfect 8-0 this season.  That's the best such mark in the country right now, but one that's certainly due to regress. Consider that currently there's no other team that has played more than three lined games w/o failing to cover. With this being the only the second "true" road game for the Gaels, the first resulting in their only loss this season (at Cal), I view this as a potential slip up. Take the points.

The opponent here is Santa Clara, who beat St. Mary's on this floor last season, 71-70 as seven-point dogs. This year, they're getting even more points to "work with," thanks to what's been a very bizarre up and down season for them.  The Broncos have not had much luck in close games so far, going 1-6 SU when the final margin is six points or less.  That includes B2B losses by a combined four points. Both were on the road and Monday's 73-72 loss at Pacific (WCC opener) was tough as it came in overtime. While the Broncos did cover (were 4.5-pt dogs), they were obviously hoping for "more," especially considering they held a six-point halftime lead.  This is a team that's due to start shooting the ball better as a 40.5 percent YTD field goal percentage is really low. Yes, I'm aware that the Broncos opened the season with seven straight losses, but again many were close games, including a two-point loss to Arizona on a neutral floor.

It's easy to identify St. Mary's worst game of the season as it's the only one they lost.  They scored just 59 points at Cal and I went against them in that spot and because I got down early, I actually got a win. Here, I anticipate the ATS result will be less in doubt as the Gaels are now being asked to lay double digits. That's always a tough ask on the conference road, especially for a team that's just 13-11 SU in "true" road games the L3 seasons. While Santa Clara's offense needs some work, their defense has been outstanding, holding opponents to just 39.1 percent shooting here at home. In what shapes up as a potentially low-scoring affair, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Santa Clara

8* Over Thunder/Lakers (10:35 ET):  For the life of me, I can't understand how Oklahoma City has been consistently staying Under the total on a nightly basis (13-1 Under L14 games!). This is a team that obviously has two of the top scorers in the league (Durant and Westbrook) and averages an impressive 107.4 PPG. Only Golden State is more efficient on that end of the floor. At the same time, the Thunder haven't been too "defensive-minded" when taking their act out on the road this season, giving up an average of 103.8 PPG.  The "culprit" for all these Unders has been high totals, which I guess shouldn't be all that surprising, but what is surprising is tonight's O/U line being so low for a matchup with one of the worst defensive teams in the league, the Lakers. This is a good value play.  Take the Over.

The Lakers allow 107.2 points per game. That's the second highest number in the league, trailing only New Orleans. It's also how many they gave up last night (107) in last night's game against Denver, the result of which was a rare win! Kobe Bryant scored a season-high 31 points Tuesday, a number that's highly unlikely to be duplicated here. Nor will the team likely match its overall 111 point output.  But going against OKC, they won't have to. Nuggets' starters accounted for only 49 points last night, a number that the Thunder will easily top. When playing w/o rest this season, things have not gone well for Los Angeles as they are 1-5 SU while allowing 110 PPG.  They give up an average of 112.9 PPG to conference foes.

These teams actually just played on Saturday. The result was an easy 118-78 Thunder win and cover. So, obviously it has been established that OKC is likely to torch the Lakers for a lot of points. They shot almost 55 percent from the field in the previous win. The key then will be the Lakers improving offensively and that shouldn't be hard.  Yes, Bryant isn't likely to score 31 pts for a second straight night, but I can guarantee you that he'll score more tonight than he did Saturday. That's because he didn't play the first time against the Thunder. The rest of the Lakers would go on to shoot a woeful 34.8 percent, which is hard to do. Bottom line is that I expect a lot of points to be scored here.  8* Over Thunder/Lakers

10* Over Ga Southern/Bowling Green (8:00 ET):  It's a bit of a unique circumstance in this year's GoDaddy Bowl as we have two teams that lost their respective head coaches to other jobs. Bowling Green's Dino Babers bolted for Syracuse and coaching here will be Brian Ward (interim), even though a permanent successor has already been hired (former Tex Tech RB coach Mike Jinks).  Georgia Southern also goes w/ an interim HC here (Dell McGee) after Willie Fritz took the Tulane job. It was just three days ago that they hired his permanent successor, former Colorado State defensive coordinator Tyson Summers. With hardly anyone on the sidelines Wednesday sticking around for the long haul and both offenses more than capable of putting up big numbers, I'm on the Over in this one.

Bowling Green has one of the most prolific offenses in the entire country (5th in FBS in total yards) and will not miss Babers here. That's because they have a senior QB (Matt Johnson), who threw for 4700 yards w/ an incredible 43-8 TD-INT ratio.  He leads an offense that averaged 43.4 points and 561 yards per game during the regular season. Only once did the Falcons fail to go over 500 yards in a game (loss to Toledo). Armed w/ all that info, you might be surprised to learn that BGSU actually finished the regular season by going Under in its last four games. But three of those totals were north of 70 pts and all were higher than this one. The Falcons should have no problem moving the ball in this game against a Georgia Southern defense that in four games contested on turf allowed nearly six yards per play.

Georgia Southern can also put up a ton of points and yards, albeit in a totally different manner than Bowling Green. While the Falcons will throw more often than not, the underdogs will almost exclusively run the ball. In fact, no team gained fewer yards via the pass during the regular season than did GSU (just 742!).  But that didn't stop them from averaging 417 YPG, 356 of its coming on the ground at 6.5 yards per clip.  Bowling Green gives up 162 rushing yards per game. Georgia Southern topped 40 points in over half their games (seven times) during the regular season. This will be one of those bowl games that's all offense & no defense. 10* Over Ga Southern/Bowling Green

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): I don't like the Kings chances here at all as tonight marks the end of a four-game trip and is their third game in four nights. Monday night saw them get blown out in Washington, a 113-99 loss to a Wizards team that quite frankly hasn't been very good this season.  Therefore, I do not anticipate being them prepared for this step up in class where they'll take on a Pacers team angry over B2B losses, both of which came on the road to superior opponents compared to what they'll face here. Indiana has been strong at home this season, going 10-3 SU while outscoring teams by 7.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Sacramento has been horrible on the road for years and 2015 has been no different.  This line should be double digits. Lay the points.

The Kings primary issue on the road is easy to identify.  They simply don't play any defense. Ranking 25th in terms of defensive efficiency is really bad, but giving up 110.1 points per game on the road is downright unforgivable. Indiana plays at a pace similar to Washington (though not quite as fast), so I expect Sacramento to have the same issues here as they did in their last game when they allowed 50.6% shooting. Defense, or in the case of the Kings lack of it, is what will determine the final margin of this game.  The Pacers are allowing only 95.5 PPG at home this season, so again the numbers expect this one to be decided by double digits (my own personal power ratings agree).

In road losses to San Antonio and Memphis, the Pacers were held to an average of just 88 PPG. But that was on the heels of three straight home wins where they topped 100 pts every time. In 12 of their last 16 games, the Pacers have been in triple digits and three of the four times they were not came on the road.  They certainly should have little difficulty scoring here against the defensively inept Kings. I was surprised to learn that Indiana is just 2-9 ATS vs. the Western Conference this year, given how we're seeing a shift in the NBA power structure (10 of top 16 teams in the league are from the East).  But it's also explainable by the fact the Pacers have already played Golden State, San Antonio and the Clippers. Paul George was an awful 1 for 14 from the floor Monday in San Antonio, which won't happen again here. 10* Indiana