8* Detroit (5:30 ET): Some major revenge here from the Titans persepective as they were humiliated in their home finale last Saturday, losing to Green Bay by a score of 107-97. They trailed 61-36 at halftime before making things look slightly more respectable by the final buzzer. Full disclosure - I was on Detroit last Saturday. I'm going to come back w/ them today in this 1st rd Horizon League Tourney matchup as the spot is good as is the price. Earlier in the week, my 1st Conf Tourney play was on a Robert Morris team playing w/ double revenge from the regular season and they won the rubber match outright (as a dog). I expect the same result here. Take the points.

Green Bay shot 56% from the floor last Saturday and made 13 three-pointers. At one point, they led by as many as 29 points. That's quite the embarrassing way to end the regular season if you're Detroit, especially considering they'd just lost by 23 (at home) in their previous game. At some point, pride has to kick in, no? The likelihood of Green Bay playing as well here as they did Saturday seems unlikely. While this is technically considered a "neutral site game," note the tournament is being played in Detroit (at Little Ceasar's Arena, home of the NBA's Pistons), so you do have to give the Titans a bit of a home court edge in handicapping this matchup. Green Bay had zero road wins before the final week of the regular season when they upset not only Detroit, but Oakland as well.

  Therefore, it's difficult to imagine the Phoenix winning three in a row away from home, right? Tonight marks just the fourth time all season that GB has won B2B games. They have gone 0-3 SU the next time out after the previous three times, meaning there's never been a single three-game win streak for them. Tonight marks just the SIXTH time all season that the Phoenix will be favored. Now, it's clear that Detroit has its own issues, but the Titans have to come in motivated here. They are the de facto host of this event, so that's something. Also, despite the last place finish in the regular season, I do NOT believe the Titans are the worst team in the Horizon League. (That dubious distinction will go to the loser of tonight's Cleveland St-Youngstown St matchup). 8* Detroit

8* UAB (8:00 ET): Here we find two teams jockeying for position in the upcoming Conference USA Tournament. Marshall is guaranteed a top five spot right now, but they'd obviously like to move up a spot considering the top four get 1st round byes. Right now, they are in fourth place (one game ahead of UTSA), so they'd obviously like to win out to preserve their current standing. Problem is the Thundering Herd's last two games are on the road where they are just 5-7 straight up and giving up 83.9 PPG. Tonight finds them at UAB, who is 12-3 SU at home where they outscore opponents by 14.4 PPG. Marshall is off a big win while UAB is off a big loss, which is what has created the value here in laying the points. I'm on the Blazers. 

Marshall pummelled Charlotte on Saturday, winning 103-75, but that's the last place team in the conference they were facing there. The Herd is closing the reg season strong w/ wins in six of the last seven contests, the lone loss coming at Old Dominion, which will prevent them from finishing any higher than fourth in the C-USA standings. Note that Marshall has done a great job at beating the teams that they "should" (15-2 SU as a favorite). But when not expected to prevail, the results aren't very good. They're just 2-7 SU as a dog. Something else that caught my eye when handicapping this game is the line from the first meeting. Marshall was only a one-point favoite when they beat UAB 86-78 back on January 20th. It stands to reason then that the line should be higher for tonight's rematch. (It opened low and we've already seen it get bet up). 

In that first meeting, it was the free throw line that burned UAB. Marshall went 18 for 18 at the charity stripe while UAB was a head-scratching 5 of 13! It's not as if the Blazers are a poor FT shooting team. For the year, they make a solid 74.8%. So I'm not sure what was going on that night. Also, the three-point line was huge in that outcome as Marshall went 14 of 37 from behind the arc while UAB was 7 of 23. Consider that the Thundering Herd were only 13 of 35, almost 33.3% on two-point attempts and still won the game! That won't happen again here, especially because the Blazers are allowing opponents to shoot only 40.3% overall this season and allowing just 63.0 PPG at home. Offensively, UAB had a horrendous shooting night at Middle Tennessee on Saturday. It was the third time in the last five games they shot below 36.5% from the field. But they came back and won after the previous two and will do that again here. 8* UAB

10* Under Lakers/Heat (7:35 ET): Whereas many of the league's bottom-feeders had terrible months, the Lakers had themselves a pretty nice February, going 7-3 straight up and 8-2 against the spread! They've won and covered three in a row, the last two coming as road favorites (although the opponents were Sacramento and Atlanta). Prior to January 5th, the team didn't have a single three-game win streak to its name this season, but they've done it four times since then. Overall, they're 15-7 SU the L22 games and tonight they go for their fourth four-game wins streak during that time. They'll be in Miami, facing a Heat team that pulled off a miracle on Tuesday, beating Philadelphia at the buzzer. While they failed to cover, the Heat had previously covered five in a row. Four of their last five games have been decided by three points or less.

When it comes to tonight's total, something had to give as you have a Lakers team that's been scoring a lot recently against a Heat team whose games are typically low scoring. The result is an O/U line somewhere "in the middle" of where we usually see Lakers and Heat totals. Now the Lakers have gone Over in six straight, which inflates a line that is already high from Miami's perspective. Over those L6 games, LA has averaged 118.5 PPG, well above their season average of 107.9 PPG. At the same time, they're also giving up an average of that is far higher than usual. The L6 games have seen them allow 117 PPG. While not a great defensive team, the Lakers are "only" allowing 109.9 PPG for the season. Sooner rather than later, these numbers are going to move back to season-long norms.

Miami has also been scoring and allowing more points per game than usual, of late. They only average 101.1 PPG for the year, but have been at 110.8 the L5 games. They only give up 101.6 PPG for the year, but have been at 106.6 the L5 games. Now those recent averages have been skewed by an overtime game against New Orleans on 2.23. Since then, they've played two games where 203 and 204 total pts were scored. The final game before the All-Star Break saw 206. The Heat are 7th in defensive efficiency and the Lakers are a surprising 11th, so look for this game to be lower scoring than expected. 10* Under Lakers/Heat

10* Charlotte U (7:30 ET): Let's get something out of the way, right off the bat. Charlotte is not a good team. All it takes to confirm that is quick perusal of the C-USA standings where you'll find the 49ers smack-dab at the bottom w/ a 1-15 SU record vs. league foes. They're also a pretty sad 5-22 SU overall. Their one C-USA win came all the way back on January 4th when a last second layup allowed them to defeat North Texas, 70-68 as 7.5-pt home underdogs. Since then, it's been 14 consecutive losses and counting. If they are to win another one, tonight looks to be the night as they are hosting a FIU team that isn't particularly good, yet is coming in off B2B victories (by a combined four points). This is a great spot to fade the road chalk.

Generally speaking, most of FIU's recent games have been close affairs. Only two of the last eight have been decided by more than six points and both were losses. Each of their last three wins have all come by three points or less and all three took place at home. The Panthers' last road win came all the way back on January 11th at UTSA and you guessed it, it was a three-point margin of victory. It's a little stunning to see this team as a road favorite, even as bad as Charlotte has been for much of 2018. The Panthers were road favorites one time previous to this and lost outright to Rice, who is 3-13 SU in C-USA play. They are only 2-8 SU in "true" road games all season. Only one time this year has FIU won three in a row and that streak included a win over a non-board team back in December. 

Charlotte was not competitive - at all - in a pair of losses last week as they lost by 38 and 28 to Marshall and Western Kentucky respectively. But at some point, pride has to kick in. This isn't the final home game (Saturday vs. FAU is), but I still expected a motivated home dog here. Note FIU did trail at the half in each of the last two wins. Charlotte's defense has been shredded by some of the top teams in C-USA recently, but I can't see FIU doing the same as they are a dreadful three-point shooting team (29.0% on the road!) and might be the worst FT shooting team in the entire country as well (59.3% for the year!). I look for the 49ers to "show up" this week, starting tonight. 10* Charlotte

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): I played the Flyers back on 2.20 when they were able to rally for a 3-2 overtime win over Montreal. It's a shame that I haven't played them more recently as this is a hot team right now. They've won six in a row and 10 of the last 11 to move into second place in the Metro and now only trail first place Washington (idle tonight) by a single point. Going back even further, we find them at 26-8-3 since December 4th. Really, were it not for a 10-game losing streak (five of those coming in OT/shootout) in late November, this would likely be considered one of the top teams in the league. On the other end of the spectrum, you have Carolina, losers of six straight and playing a third consecutive road game. This price is way too low considering the current states of the respective teams.

While Philly's aformentioned long losing streak in November saw a lot of bad luck, the current win streak has predictably seen a lot of good fortune. Five of their last 10 wins have come in extra time, including Monday's 1-0 win over Montreal, which went to a shootout. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this isn't a great team. They haven't been beaten in regulation since Feb 1. Goaltending was the only concern I had w/ this club and that was addressed with the acquisition of Peter Mrazek at the deadline. Mrazek has started the L3 games and has a 1.30 GAA and .947 save percentage. He's a good bet to start tonight considering a 6-1 lifetime record vs. Carolina that comes w/ a 1.71 GAA and .951 save percentage. 

Meanwhile, as good as things are going in the City of Brotherly Love right now, it's just as bad down in Carolina. The Hurricanes finally managed to score some goals Tuesday vs. Boston (three), yet still lost in overtime. While the team continues to outshoot its opponents by a solid margin, it's simply not translating into victories right now. The 'Canes will also be w/o captain Jordan Staal this evening, which is obviously a major loss. While Philly addressed its goaltending problems, Carolina's still persist as they rank 30th in overall save percentage at .896. Neither Scott Darling nor Cam Ward has been in decent form lately, so there's no real good option here. The 'Canes are just 12-23 SU this year when facing a team w/ a winning record. 8* Philadelphia

8* Under Thunder/Mavs (8:35 ET): After a brief stop home (where they beat Orlando) Monday night, the Thunder are set to hit the road again for three more games, starting tonight w/ this stop in Dallas. OKC badly needed that win over the Magic as they were coming off a humbling 32-point defeat at the hands of Golden State. That was the end of another three-game trip, though it began before the All-Star Break. This is probably another "must win" as the Thunder currently are tied for sixth in the Western Conference, which is disappointing considering they have three All-Star caliber players on the roster. But this team has not been good at the pay window this year, thus I'll avoid laying the points. I like the Under instead. 

Dallas is not in a good place right now as owner Mark Cuban has been fined for admitting to tanking and the entire front office is trying to move past an ugly scandal rife w/ inappropriate behavor. Somehow the team did manage to beat Indiana here at home on Monday, 109-103, as 2.5-pt home underdogs. That snapped a four-game losing streak and was just the team's third win this month. But I wouldn't expect the good times to last very long here, even if you can proclaim the Mavs the best of the West's "bad teams." This isn't a very good offensive team, by the way, as they average only 102 PPG (27th in the league). But on the other end of the floor, I expect improvement tonight. The L5 games have seen them allow an average of 108.4 PPG. At home, at least they've been pretty solid defensively this year, giving up only 102.7 PPG. 

OKC will also play better defensively here than they did Monday. Orlando actually shot 56% in the 1H and went into the break w/ 62 points! But from there, the Thunder shut them down and was able to win 112-105. This is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and typically they allow fewer points than what they've given up recently. The L2 meetings between these teams have gone very differently w/ one being high scoring and the other low scoring. Both were won by Dallas! Regardless, the totals for both of those games were substantially lower. The Mavs are 32-13 Under the L3 seasons coming off a SU win as a dog and have gone 9-3 Under their L12 games against teams w/ winning records. 8* Under Thunder/Mavs

10* Washington (8:05 ET): Given the circumstance (1st of B2B road games), the Wizards should be thrilled that they were able to go into Milwaukee last night and come away w/ a 107-104 win as three-point dogs. However, given how well they started that game, it almost feels like they lost Tuesday night. Before you knew it, the Wiz were up 40-22 at the end of the 1st quarter. But they had to hold on as on five different occasions, the Bucks cut the lead to one. But Washington never once conceded the lead and picked up a key Eastern Conference win, just two days after ending Philadelphia's seven-game win streak. Tonight is a much greater challenge, but getting this many points at home, the Wizards are the play here.

Golden State has won six of seven, including all three games since the All-Star Break. They were a double digit favorite in all three games. After not covering against the Clippers (won 134-127), they humbled the Thunder 112-80 on Saturday night before winning at New York, 125-111, Monday. Still the Dubs are facing a very legitimate challenge from the Rockets for the top spot in the West this year as they actually enter tonight one-game back. Favored in every game this season, Golden State doesn't have much of a dropoff when they hit the road, though their average margin of victory does fall slightly (by about three points) even w/ the WL record being nearly identical to what it is at home. Let's also not discount the potential "distraction" visiting the Nation's capital may have caused here as this was supposed to be the time when the Warriors visited the White House (elected not to, but did visit w/ several area childen instead). 

Washington is no pushover at home. They average 110.0 PPG at the Verizon Center and while they're a lousy 7-17 ATS when favored here, they are 4-1 SU/ATS as a home dog. Overall, they are 16-7 ATS when getting points this season. This is a team that's gone 8-3 SU and ATS in the month of February despite being w/o John Wall. The only reason that we are able to get this many points is because of the B2B situation and I don't think that's as big a deal as it normally might be considering how they were up big early last night and clearly took their "foot off the gas." If anything, they should be motivated by almost letting the game slip away. 10* Washington

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues lost their seventh straight game last night and it was in ugly fashion, 8-3 at Minnesota. I was on the Wild and that wasn't the first time I played against the ice cold Blues during this losing streak. But as "un-complimentary" as I've been towards them recently (justifiably so!), I'm jumping on board tonight! They're back home and facing a Detroit team I don't have much respect for. Consider that when these two old Norris Division rivals met in December, not only did St. Louis win 6-1 in the Motor City, but they were -150 on the money line. By comparison, we're getting tremendous value on the Blues at home tonight. The long losing streak finally ends tonight. 

After losing three straight home games by identical 3-2 scores, the Red Wings have bounced back w/ consecutive victories. The last one, in Madison Square Garden, required overtime to defeat the Rangers 3-2. The Rangers, like St. Louis here, have been a cold team. They too have lost seven in a row and are 3-13-1 L17 overall. But despite this, I don't see Detroit winning B2B road games. This trip, which will continue w/ visits to Boston, Minnesota and Winnipeg, could likely sink the Wings' season. They're only hope of making the playoffs is the Wild Card and it's quite the gap to make up w/ a ton of teams to jump. This team is 27th in the league in goals per game and only 11-17 SU when facing an opponent that has a winning record. 

There's no sugarcoating the Blues' last three results. We're talking the wrong end of two 4-0 shutouts, then they lost 8-3 last night. Tonight will be their only home game over a 19-day stretch. Next time they'll play at the Scottrade Center is March 15th vs. Colorado. So I fully expect tonight's game to be treated w/ the utmost importance. This string of recent results is very unlike St. Louis, who still ranks 8th in the league in goals allowed. The offense went an incredible 150:23 w/o a goal before Vladimir Tarasenko found the back of the net in the 2nd perod. It's unclear who will be in goal tonight (both Jake Allen and Carter Hutton saw ice time last night), but regardless, I give the Blues the edge between the pipes in this matchup. With Peter Mrazek dealt, Detroit is basically left w/ only Jimmy Howard, who only has an .899 save percentage vs. non-conference foes. 10* St. Louis

8* Under Raptors/Magic (7:05 ET): Helping drive this O/U line up is the fact Toronto is 5-0 Over its L5 games, averaging over 120 PPG. This is a high-scoring team, but they've been at or above their season average for seven consecutive games now and eventually that streak has to come to an end. Tonight brings a seemingly "easy" matchup w/ the Magic, who have lost six in a row, but they've been competitive in those losses. These teams have not met previously this season, so there will be a small sense of unfamiliarity here. Orlando's last six games have all season both they and the opponent top 100+ pts. That's another streak likely to end sooner than later, so I'm taking the Under tonight.

Toronto has shot the ball extremely well since the All-Star Break. They made 52.5% of their FG attempts against Detroit the other night in a 123-94 beatdown. But that was also at home where they are averaging 113.3 PPG for the year. In fact, the Raptors have the best home point differential in the league this year. This is a road game and I don't expect the shots to fall w/ that kind of regularity. Yes, they have scored 100 or more in 12 straight games and Monday was the 19th time they went overe 120 this season. But keep in mind that in their first game back from the All-Star Break, they missed 25 of 34 attempts in a 122-119 loss to Milwaukee. The amount of scoring in that game is skewed because it went into overtime. 

Orlando is no offensive juggernaut, though they are averaging over 105 PPG for the year. Lost in the conversation about Toronto's offense is that they've also been defending well of late. Five of their last eight opponents have failed to reach 100 pts. Only two of the last eight opponents have shot better than 43% or better from the field. So, I wouldn't expect a banner offensive day here from Magic. A bad sign here for Orlando is they shot 56% from the field in the 1H vs. OKC on Monday (scored 62 pts) and still lost. There's no way they'll be that prolific again here. 8* Under Raptors/Magic

10* Robert Morris (7:00 ET): This is a 1st round matchup in the Northeast Conference (#2 vs. #7 seed) w/ RMU going for revenge as they lost here only six days ago, by the lopsided score of 72-53. In fact, the Colonials have double revenge as they were also blown out at home by MSM, 67-42, back on Feb 1st. My intuition tells me the third time may very well be the charm for Robert Morris and at the very least this game is going to be a lot closer. Granted, RMU didn't exactly have a sterling end to the regular season as they've dropped three in a row. Meanwhile, Mt. St. Mary's has won three straight. But the head to head results from the reg season aren't indicative of the true gap between these teams, which is a lot smaller than you think. Take the points. 

It's been awhile since Robert Morris beat their NEC rivals. They've lost all seven matchups the L3 seasons, including the two blowouts this year. But even after dropping seven of their last night, I can make the case that the Colonials are the best of the bottom four in the NEC. They've been outscored by less than two points per game on the year and are a respectable 9-10 SU away from home. They were outscored by just over a point in conference play. Tiebreakers are what made this the 2 vs.7 (seed) matchup in the quarterfinals as RMU actually finished tied for the fourth best overall SU record among NEC teams. Meanwhile, Mt. St. Mary's was third, just three games better than the Colonials.

RMU did not shoot the ball well - at all - when they hosted MSM in the regular season. We're talking a 29.8 FG% including a horrendous 3 of 21 from three-point range. They were better in the rematch, but so was MSM. The Mountaineers do have the NEC Player of the Year on their roster, Junior Robinson, but I'm going to question how they'll respond after a huge win over top seed Wagner in the reg season finale. Yes, MSM has lost only two of its last 10 games and those losses were by a combined three points. But it's very hard to beat the same team three times in the same season, let alone a month, so taking the points is the way to go in this winner take all matchup. 10* Robert Morris

8* Under Clippers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): This is a big game, worthy of national TV coverage (it's on TNT). Denver currently leads the Clippers by one game, an advantage that would obviously go away w/ a loss here, for eighth place in the Western Conference. As we know, it's the top eight that make the playoffs. I've been impressed w/ how the Clippers have played since trading Blake Griffin to Detroit, especially on this road trip which ends tonight. The trip, which began before the All-Star Break (on 2.9), has seen them go 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS w/ the only losses coming at Philadelphia (who has been hot) and Golden State (no explanation needed). Though a seventh straight road game sounds really brutal (especially in high elevation), the Clips have had the last three days off, not to mention the All-Star Break mixed in. 

Denver is playing its third straight home game. Coming out of the Break, they've split against the Spurs and Rockets, which is fine when you consider that level of opposition. They did allow 119 pts in both games, which is not good, but my guess is we'll start to see some defensive improvement tonight. In the last six games, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 118.8 PPG. All six games have gone Over the total and the team is 10-1 Over its L11 games. But, at home, the Nuggets allow only 104.9 PPG for the season. So the likelihood of regression to the mean seems strong here. Same thing w/ the Nuggets offense, which has been scoring more than usual of late. Overall, their games are averaging just over 215 PPG for the season. This will be just the fourth game w/ an OU line of 230+ for them in 2017-18. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers have scored 129,127 and 128 points their last three games! How likely is that to continue? Not very, in my opinion. Those were three easy Overs obviously, but since the Break they faced Golden State (top offensive team) and Phoenix (worst defensive team). Consider that when these teams met last month, the total was nearly 15 pts lower and still stayed Under. That means we've got some serious value here as both teams are due to return to their "normal" levels of scoring. 8* Under Clippers/Nuggets

10* Over Oilers/Sharks (10:35 ET): This is a big game for the Sharks, who have lost three in a row. Their most recent defeat was rough as they blew a two-goal lead in Minnesota on Sunday and lost in overtime. (I had the Wild!). They're still in second place in the Pacific mind you (75 points), but the fifth place team has 73 points, so one more loss could be extremely detrimental. As much as I want to "pull the trigger" here and take them against Edmonton, I just can't. The Oilers, who are this season's biggest disappointment, have won three in a row and are playing much better right now. What I can predict, however, is this will be a high-scoring game. Take the Over.

Edmonton's three-game win streak has seen them score a total of 13 goals. They outlasted Anaheim Sunday night, winning 6-5 in a shootout. Really, goal scoring should never have been an issue for the Oilers this year. They are near the top of the league in shots per game (34.0), but seem to be snake-bitten as opposing goaltenders have posted a somewhat stunning .916 save percentage against them. That's among the highest marks in the league. Of course, that can be overcome, but not when you're own goaltending is lousy and such is the case w/ the Oilers, who have seen their netminders post a collective .896 save percentage this year. That's the worst mark in the league and a big reason why they allow the third most goals per game. Also, they are dead last in penalty killing. 

San Jose looks to have a massive edge on special teams here as they are #1 in the league in penalty killing and sixth on the power play. I do look for the Sharks' offensive numbers to start improving on this homestand, which will take them through the middle of March. When it comes to the number of shots and goals per game, both numbers are up significantly when they play at "The Tank." They also just added Evander Kane (20 goals/20 assists) at the trade deadline.  At the same time though, I am concerned w/ the number of shots they've been allowing of late. That number is 36.5 per game over the L5 contests. It's very likely Edmonton is going to get a lot of scoring chances here and I'm just not very confident in either Sharks' goaltender right now. 10* Over Oilers/Sharks

8* Creighton (9:00 ET): The only reason I can think of as to why this line opened so low is that the oddsmakers are expecting some sort of letdown from Creighton after they upset Villanova on Saturday. But a letdown is something the Blue Jays simply cannot afford right now going into the BIg East Tournament. Obviously, 'Nova and Xavier are the two teams to beat in this league (both ranked in the top four nationally). However, Creighton probably has as legit a claim as anybody to being the third best Big East team.  That being said, they enter Tuesday in a four-way tie for third (w/ Seton Hall, Butler and Providence) at 9-7 SU in conference play. Winning out would thus be a very big deal for the Bluejays.

On the other hand, DePaul, will be one of the bottom four teams forced to play an Opening Rd game next week in NYC. The Blue Demons are 4-12 SU in Big East play, one game ahead of last place St. John's. Considering they have this game, followed by Xavier, the chances of them losing out seem pretty high. Now, like Creighton, DePaul is off a SU win as a home dog. They beat Marquette Saturday, 70-62 (were getting 3 pts). There were two huge factors in the Blue Demons pulling off that upset. One was rebounding as a 49-30 advantage on the boards led to a 15-4 edge in second chance points. The other was free throw shooting. While Marquette attempted only nine free throws the entire game, DePaul had 32. I don't see either edge being present tonight. 

Creighton isn't ranked in the AP Poll (#24 in Coaches), but I have them among my Top 25 teams in the country. They had lost two in a row and four of six heading into Saturday, but beating Villanova all but clinches their spot in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, they needed overtime on Saturday after trailing by eight w/ only 4:30 to go. But consider they had learned earlier in the day that starting forward Ronnie Harrell, Jr would be out w/ a foot infection. (He could return here). The Bluejays shot the ball much better than did Villanova as well, which is impressive when you consider how efficient Nova's offense has been. But, maybe we shouldn't have been surprised as Creighton averages over 90 PPG at home (shooting 52.9%). I know it was only a one-point win over DePaul the first time (which came directly after a 20-pt LOSS to 'Nova), but consider the line value we're getting. The Bluejays were seven-point favorites on the ROAD that game. Lay it! 8* Creighton

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Something I've harped on throughout this NHL season is that in each conference, one division is far superior to the other. In the Western Conference, the Central Division has better of the two and thus will likely produce five playoff teams (get both Wild Cards) as opposed to the likely three from the Pacific. While it's either Winnipeg or Nashville that will win the Central, Minnesota is also making a "hard charge" up the standings as they are currently in third place w/ 77 points and on a four-game win streak. Trending in the opposite direction is tonight's opponent, St. Louis, who has lost six in a row to fall into fifth and for right now, on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the playoff picture.

It's been division games that have really hurt the Blues during this losing streak w/ four of the six games coming against Central foes. Really, this game sets up no differently than when I played against them Sunday afternoon in Nashville. The result there for St. Louis was a second straight 4-0 shutout loss as Winnipeg did the same thing to them on Friday (at home). Finding the back of the net has been a real problem for the Blues this year as they rank 22nd in the league in goals per game, not to mention 28th on the power play. Getting outscored 8-0 the L2 games may be a low-point for the season, but they've also topped two goals only one time during this losing streak. Quite simply, they're a team I want no part of right now. 

Minnesota, on the other hand, treated me well Sunday. They rallied back from a two-goal deficit (here at home) to defeat San Jose in overtime, 3-2. It was their fourth consecutive win and they've scored at least three goals in all four victories. So this really is a matchup of two teams trending in very different directions. Recent form isn't the only reason this is a terrible matchup for St. Louis, however. As stated in my analysis for Sunday's game, the Wild lead the league in fewest number of goals allowed at home (2.2 per game). So, the Blues' offensive struggles are very likely to continue tonight. Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk has a .931 save percentage here at the XCel Center. The Wild won in St. Louis (6-2!) earlier this month and don't discount the motivation from behind the bench as HC Mike Yeo was fired by the Blues last season. 8* Minnesota

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): The Golden Flashes play their final home game tonight and have legit revenge for an 11-point loss down in Oxford in January. That 1st meeting w/ Miami saw the RedHawks shoot nearly 52% from the field, including 10 of 25 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Kent State could only manage to shoot 5 for 18 from "downtown." A change in venue should lead to a change in result however, and it certainly helps that we're getting some added value on the home team tonight. That can be attributed to the fact that Miami is off B2B upsets, the last one coming at Akron on Saturday. I can't see the RedHawks winning B2B road games, even though they are a somewhat shocking 10-4 ATS on the road this season. Lay the points.

Kent State has been favored only seven times this season, but has won six of those games straight up. They did just fail to cover Saturday, hosting Bowling Green, as that was a 64-63 final w/ a 4.5-pt spread. That game certainly could have gone either way as there were five lead changes in the final minute alone as the Golden Flashes needed two free throws in the final four seconds to secure the win. However, I was impressed by the Flashes winning in spite of some poor shooting. Interestingly enough, their two lowest scoring efforts of February both came against Bowling Green. They're only 2-5 SU and ATS this month overall, but their home record is still 11-3 SU for the season. On Senior Night, I expected a highly motivated performance.

There's a good chance that the winner of this game will be finishing in 2nd place in the MAC East. If Miami wins, that is guaranteed. There is a chance (for both teams) that a 2nd place finish would give them a bye into the quarterfinals of the MAC Tourney in Cleveland next week. Kent State knows it can play better than it did the first time vs. Miami when they trailed by 23 pts at halftime. Defense was huge against Bowling Green Saturday as they held the Falcons to a 33.8 FG% (lowest this year vs. any D-I opponent) and set a program record w/ 11 blocked shots. I think defense will be big again here. Miami is only shooting 40.8% from the field its last five games. Their win Saturday over Akron required OT and was 51-51 at the end of regulation (they trailed 31-17 at halftime!). That was also the RedHawks' second OT game in the L10 days. They may be "out of gas" here. 10* Kent State

8* Colorado (9:05 ET): An Avalanche team desperate for two points gets a break Monday in that they get to host lowly Vancouver. These teams just faced off last week and the Avs won 5-4, in overtime. Why is this game so important to the Avs? Well, they're starting to fall behind the pack when it comes to the playoff chase. They are four points back of the final Wild Card, but are looking at having to jump several teams. A return home to face a weak opponent should do the trick. The Avs are 20-8-1 on home ice. The Canucks have just two wins in the last 10 games (entering Sunday) and have given up 11 goals in the last two. 

No one expected the Avs to be a playoff contender this year. After all, they were the worst team in the league last season by a wide margin. But they have surprised and then some. They already have 21 more points than all of last season. Injuries along the blue line have started to slow them down over the last week. But it's been the #10 offense in goals per game that has mostly carried them. They outshot the Canucks last week, 34-28, and I imagine they'll do the same again here.

There's a chance Vancover comes into this game on a three-game losing streak, although they play at Arizona Sunday night and if there's one team (on paper) that they should beat, it's the 'Yotes. Regardless of what happens there, I'm definitely playing against the Canucks. They've been outscored by 36 goals this season (as of press time) and will be playing the second game of a back to back. It will also be a third road game in four nights. If they win Sunday, it makes sense to fade them as this isn't a team that wins B2B games very often. A loss and they'll all the more demoralized. Their goaltending situation is not good, which makes them an even better fade in this situation. 8* Colorado

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Wow. The Lakers are road favorites for a second straight time here. What is the world coming to? They won and covered Saturday in Sacramento, 113-108, laying a point and a half. They are actually 2-0 SU/ATS since the All-Star Break having also downed Dallas at home on Friday. Overall, they'll be looking to make it 7 wins in the last 10 games as they visit another 18-win team Monday, that being Atlanta. The Hawks are playing their first home game in two weeks here as they are coming off a winless three-game road trip that was wrapped around the Break. Not surprisingly, they are a lot more competitive here at Phillips Arena.

The Hawks are the league's youngest team w/ nine players on the roster in their first or second season. So growing pains were clearly expected in 2018 and sure enough they haven't "disappointed." I will say that they are not demonstrably worse than the other three bottom teams in the East. On the road, they are dreadful (5-25 SU), but like I said earlier, they are competitive at home w/ a 13-17 SU record and only being outscored by 2.5 points per game. In their first game back from the All-Star Break, the Hawks lost to the Pacers by 23 points. So they should be motivated here. Further adding to the motivation is them looking to avenge a 19-point loss out in LA last month.

The Lakers are playing better now, but this is still a 10-20 SU team on the road and I don't like laying points (no matter how many minimal) with that resume. They didn't exactly blowout Sacramento either. It was a 113-108 final after they trailed at the half. They also needed a career-best 34 points from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, half of those coming in a decisive third quarter. This is a team that still gives up 113.8 points per game on the road. Atlanta is a curiously outstanding 15-5 ATS in Western Conference games this season. It all adds up to this being a pretty solid price on the Hawks here. They were only 3.5-pt dogs when they visited Staples Center last month. That game saw the Lakers shoot better than 55% from the field, which will not happen here. The Hawks are also 10-4 ATS this season when on a losing sreak of three games or more. 10* Atlanta 

8* Virginia Tech (7:00 ET): In the final home game of the year, Va Tech will host Duke. The Blue Devils will almost certainly improve upon their #5 ranking when the new poll comes out later in the day. That's because not only did #3 Villanova lose Saturday, but Coach K's team has won and covered five straight. They're certainly in play for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they were to win the final two regular season games and the ACC Tournament. As per usual, Duke will close its regular season vs. North Carolina. (That game will be in Cameron). Virginia Tech's status is a lot more precarious after they lost here in Blacksburg to Louisville on Saturday. The Hokies could really use a marquee win and I'll take the points. 

It actually wasn't long ago that these squads last met. It was Valentine's Day in Cameron and needless to say, Duke wasn't in a very "loving mood" as they waxed the Hokies 74-52 as 10.5-pt chalk. But this is obviously a road game and four of the Blue Devils' five losses this season have come on the road. A big part of that is the fact they give up 79.6 PPG away from home. Now Marvin Bagley III is set to return Monday. But it's not as if the Blue Devils appeared to miss the ACC's leading scorer/rebounder. Might his return actually have a short-term adverse effect on the team as they work to integrate him back into the offense? It's certainly possible. 

Va Tech is a strong 6-1 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss of 20+ points. That includes a 2-0 mark this season. Furthermore, they attempted only four free throws in the first meeting. Duke went zone for the entire duration of that first meeting, something that caught the Hokies' coaching staff off-guard. It also didn't help that leading scorer Justin Robinson battled foul trouble much of the contest. The Hokies are a strong home team (13-4 SU overall, outscoring teams by about 15 PPG). Last week saw them beat a top 15 team (Clemson) here. Yes, they lost to Louisville, but the three-point line was a big difference in that one to a degree I don't believe will be present here. The Hokies actually shoot the ball better than Duke, both from two-point and three-point range. At home, they're shooting an incredible 52.2 percent. 8* Virginia Tech 

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Right now, they are basically 11 viable contenders for the eight playoff spots in the Western Conference. These two are counted among them. Both are in the top three in their respective divisions, but those positions are tenuous to say the least. San Jose is second in the Pacific w/ 74 points and isn't likely to be catching 1st place Vegas. The Sharks' greater concern should revolve around who may catch them as three teams in the Pacific are within three points of them. Back to back losses in Nashville and Chicago certainly weren't encouraging either. Now they head to the Twin Cities to face a Wild team coming off a highly successful 3-0 East Coast swing. Home ice should provide the neccessary advantage in this one though.

Like San Jose in the Pacific, upward mobility for Minnesota in the Central is somewhat limited. They are unlikely to catch the two teams ahead of them, Winnipeg and Nashville, as there's an eight point gap right now. As is the case w/ the Sharks, it's staying in front of who's behind them that's more important right now. Dallas is only one point back of Minnesota while struggling St. Louis is only three points back. Again though, you have to be impressed w/ how the Wild dominated their recent road trip and scored 13 times in beating the Rangers, Islanders and Devils. Yet they're also certainly happy to be back home where their record somewhat underlies how well they've played here. The team has more OT/shootout losses (6) at home than regulation losses (5). They have 20 wins and are outscoring teams by a full goal per game. No team allows fewer goals per game at home than the Wild (2.16). 

San Jose is near the bottom of the league in goals scored on the road and we've seen that play out the L2 games as they scored just one time against both Nashville and Chicago. Special teams have been huge for the Sharks this year, but they've also been giving up a ton of shots recently. Martin Jones, who has an unsustainable .950 save percentage his L4 starts, cannot continue to bail his team out at that rate. I mentioned earlier that the Wild give up the fewest number of goals per game in the league at home. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk has a .931 save percentage at the XCel Center this season. 8* Minnesota

10* Connecticut (4:00 ET): Both of these once-proud programs have fallen on hard times. So it will be little on the line with the exception of pride Sunday afternoon. Pride is something that seems to be severely lacking in Storrs right now where UConn is coming off a 25-point loss at Cincinnati earlier in the week. But that was hardly a great spot for the Huskies as not only were they facing a legit Top 10 team on the road, but the Bearcats were also angry, off a loss. UConn has just two wins in its last eight games and those have come by a total of seven points over South Florida and East Carolina. But this is a huge revenge spot for them as they were humiliated down in Memphis back in January, losing 73-49 as three-point dogs. Lay the points.

That same night (Thursday) that UConn was being blown out in Cincy, Memphis was recording perhaps its most impressive victory of the season as they beat Houston 91-85 as six-point home dogs. It was the Tigers' third consecutive victory, all of those coming as underdogs. The other two were at SMU and Tulane. Note, however, that all three wins were by six points or less. Beating a ranked squad like Houston is nice, but note the Tigers did trail by as many as 13 in the contest. A lot of that can be attributed to the fact Houston shot only 32.3% from the field in the second half. Meanwhile, Memphis shot 61% in the 2H. Also, the Tigers were quite fortunate in that UH (one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country) went just 11 of 29 from behind the arc.

However, and this is a really big deal, not all the news for Memphis was good coming out of the Houston game. Starting point guard Jeremiah Martin broke his left foot, which will require surgery, so he's done for the season. That's a huge loss as the team was just starting to build some momentum. Martin was leading the AAC in both points (18.9) and steals (2.3) per game. As for UConn, a five-game ATS skid is due to end. They get back their leading scorer, Jalen Adams, who missed the Cincinnati game due to the flu. Without him, the Huskies simply never got going against a superior opponent and it didn't help that they got only five points total from the bench. This game takes place in Gampel Pavillion where UConn is 6-1 SU this season. 10* Connecticut

10* New Orleans (3:05 ET): Two teams fighting for playoff position in their respective conferences meet Sunday afternoon in Milwaukee. The Bucks' second half of the season got off to a nice start as they went to Toronto Friday and upset the Raptors, 122-119 in overtime (were 7-pt dogs). Winning "North of the Border" is not easy to do (Toronto's home record is a league best 24-5 SU) plus the Raptors were coming out of the All-Star Break on a seven-game win streak. But, I have my doubts as to how well the Bucks will play, post-upset. New Orleans comes in hot (won four straight) and this is a spot Milwaukee has NOT fared well in all season. Off a SU win as a dog, they've gone just 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS. Take the points.

New Orleans' is also off an overtime win, theirs coming at home vs. Miami on Friday. Anthony Davis played another ridiculous game, finishing w/ 45 points, 17 rebounds, five blocks and five steals. Not long ago, Davis infamously said the Pelicans would be a "Finals team" if not for the Boogie Cousins injury. I wouldn't go that far, but this is a team that's certainly had little difficulty scoring of late. Granted, two of the four wins during the current streak were OT affairs, but they've still totaled at least 118 pts in every game. This is a team that already ranks 4th in the league in points per game. Milwaukee had recently shown some defensive improvement (after firing HC Jason Kidd), but that's largely been "out the window" these L2 games.

The Bucks are only 10-16-3 ATS at home this season. They are trying to reach nine games above .500 for the first time in nearly EIGHT years today. While Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to draw league MVP consideration, that has somewhat inflated the overall outlook on the team. This is a pretty mediocre lot when you break it down as they've scored and allowed roughly the same number of points per game on the year. You can say the same for New Orleans, but they play in the tougher conference and are the team getting points today. Though Milwaukee has won 10 of its last 13 games, that's mainly come at the expense of a pretty weak schedule. They lost down in the Big Easy, 115-108, back in December and the bottom line is I believe the Pelicans are still the better team. 10* New Orleans

8* Nashville (12:05 ET): In some analysis written earlier this week, I'd written that I wasn't sure who would end up winning the Central Division, but it would "probably be Nashville or Winnipeg." Those two teams enter Sunday deadlocked at the top w/ 83 points apiece. I had the Predators in their last game, which ended up being a 7-1 romp over San Jose, the team's third consecutive win overall. The Preds are clearly one of the top teams in the sport this season and it's difficult not to like them in this early start time, on home ice, against the struggling Blues. St. Louis has now lost five in a row after being shutout (at home) by Winnipeg on Friday. As a result, their playoff chances have grown more precarious by the day.

Among the Blues' five straight losses was a visit here to Music City. They fell 4-3 to the Preds, a game that went into overtime. At the time, it was the fifth consecutive game for Nashville that went into extra time. They'd go onto lose their next two, but have since won three straight, scoring 15 total goals in the process. When they beat the Blues, there was definitely some good fortune involved. Not only did they rally from a three-goal deficit in the third period, but the game winner in OT was scored on a penalty shot. Still, it's been more of a case of skill than luck when it comes to the Preds' success in 2018.

Goaltender Pekka Rinne has been the driving force behind Nashville ranked #2 in goals allowed in the league. Rinner has also beaten St. Louis seven of the last nine times he's faced them and given up just four goals total in three games against them this season, three of them coming in that last meeting. Facing the Blues at a time when they've scored only seven times over a five-game span seems advantageous. Here at home, Nashville is outscoring opponents by nearly a full goal per game to begin with and is likely to facing a struggling goaltender today as Carter Hutton sports a poor .875 percentage his L4 starts. The Blues aren't a terribly dynamic offensive team to begin with and I don't think this early start time on the road does them any favors, quite frankly. 8* Nashville

10* Florida (8:30 ET): The Gators have now lost three in a row and its getting harder and harder for me to justify calling this a top 25 team. Now, it should be pointed out that all three losses have been by five points or less. Wednesday, it was a poor shooting night at Tennessee (35.0%) that cost them in a 62-57 loss. Things get no easier tonight as they face the SEC's other "surprise" team, that being Auburn, who leads the conference w/ a 12-3 SU record. The Tigers are 24-4 SU overall and coming off a dominant 90-71 win over rival Alabama. That was a nice bounce back from a loss in their last road game, at South Carolina. I know it seems as if these teams are trending in opposite directions, but I'm on Florida here.

Auburn has certainly had little to no success vs. Florida through the years, particularly in Gainesville. They are 3-23 SU the L26 head to head matchups, including an 0-11 SU mark in Gainesville. So that's a lot of history going against them. Now there's no denying the job Bruce Pearl has done here and that this isn't your typical Auburn squad. Picked to finish 9th in the SEC back in the preseason, the Tigers instead can now clinch at least a share of the regular season crown w/ one more victory. The fact they have pulled this off despite losing two contributors that were projected to be key (before the season even started) is stunning. But now we're starting to see even more attrition. Only eight players suited up against 'Bama as Anfernee McLemore was lost for the season (ankle) in the South Carolina game and Mustapha Heron (second leading scorer) is battling the flu (questionable for tonight). It's obviously difficult to win on the road w/ such a short rotation. 

For Florida, it's all about tonight as they are desperate for a win. They have shockingly dropped three of their last five home games, all as favorites of nine points or greater. The last two losses came on the road, however. They led Vandy at the half, but came out very slow at Tennessee. Something to keep in mind though is that this is the same team that went to South Carolina two weeks ago and won by 24. That's the same South Carolina team that upset Auburn last Saturday. I believe tonight is a breakout game for the Gators. 10* Florida

10* Memphis (7:35 ET): Things are obviously not going very well in Memphis right now where I've seen the Grizzlies referred to as a "dumpster fire" recently, amongst other unkind words. For the record, the team has dropped eight in a row and last night's home game vs. Cleveland completely unraveled after a somewhat promising start. The Grizz actually led by seven after the 1st quarter, but from there were outscored 92-62 in what ended up being a 112-89 loss (as five-point dogs). Tonight they hit the road to face a fellow unrested team, that being Miami. The Heat also lost last night, 124-123 in New Orleans, in overtime. Given the respective ways the two teams lost Friday, I think the Heat are actually in the worse situation here and asking them to lay points is something I'd want no part of.

To me, Miami has been an overachiever this season. That might sound odd considering they're only in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, but consider they were higher in the standings before some predictable regression started to take hold. This is a team that's been outscored this season and has consistently been "in the red" when it comes to an efficieny rating. Both Detroit and Charlotte (two teams behind them in standings) have better YTD point differentials. While it's true the Heat have covered four in a row, they are just 2-8 SU their L10 games and aren't a favorite as much as you might think. Going back to Jan 15th, tonight marks only the sixth time they've been favored. They've lost three of those previous five outright and are only 8-16 ATS overall at home this season, regardless if they're favored or not. 

Tonight also marks the ninth consecutive game that the Grizzlies have been an underdog. They have not been good on the road this year, which is actually an understatement when you consider their 5-21 SU road record is second worst in the league (only Atlanta is worse). But as ugly as things were before the All-Star Break and over the final three quarters last night, I don't see the Grizz getting blown out here. Both teams play at very deliberate paces, which lends itself to taking the points in what promises to be a low-scoring game. 10* Memphis

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): I've talked about this many times previously, but it bears repeating. It didn't take long this season for the Atlantic Division to divide itself into the have's and have not's. The division is comprised of three of the top six teams in the sport (in terms of goal differential), but the other five are also-rans at best w/ a few contending for worst team in the league. Here, from the first group we have Tampa Bay, who has led the division the whole way and is the current clubhouse leader for the President's Trophy (most points in the league). On other side, there's Montreal, a team that has fallen off badly this season (won division LY!) and had lost six in a row prior to Thursday's win over the equally cold Rangers.

This is Tampa's third road game in five nights. They won the first two, winning at Washington and Ottawa, scoring four goals in both games. The top scoring team in the league has now scored at least three goals in eight consecutive games. Now they were outshot, pretty severely, by both the Caps and Sens. But that's not part for the course, obviously. No team is even close to the Lightning's 21 road wins and they've outscored opponents by 0.8 gpg at their own rinks! They did lose here in Montreal back in January, but had a 45-38 edge in shots. It was a red hot Carey Price in goal that night for the Habs, but the former Vezina winner hasn't been that caliber a netminder for much of this season. Case in point; his save percentage in his L4 starts is .886. 

Price's decline has been a major part of the overall team decline this year in Montreal. Then again, they also rank 28th in goals scored per game, so it's been a real "all around" effort here. I give a big edge to the Lightning between the pipes in this one as they elected to rest Andrei Vasilevskiy against Ottawa, meaning he'll be extra fresh for tonight. Vasilevskiy has won 8 of his previous 11 starts and given up two goals or fewer in 28 of 49 starts this season. His seven shutouts lead the league and he has a save percentage of .937 on the road. As mentioned before, Montreal is off a win, but prior to that they'd dropped six in a row and allowed five or more goals in three of those defeats. They're only 8-19 SU this year against teams w/ a winning record. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Oklahoma (6:15 ET): Given that it was a little over a month ago that the Sooners came in FAVORED at Kansas State, this line sure looks a "steal," doesn't it? Now, I fully recognize there are substantial reasons that the oddsmakers have adjusted so dramatically for the rematch. One is that Kansas State won that 1st meeting by 18 points. The other is that OU has essentially gone down the tubes ever since. Their losing streak reached six games on Monday w/ a humiliating 30-pt setback in Lawrence (to Kansas) that leaves them at only 16-11 SU for the year. Their status as a NCAA Tournament team seems secure, but losing 9 of 12 overall certainly is not a good look. Monday aside, many of those losses have been close.

Kansas State has won and covered three in a row and is 9-4 ATS its L13 games overall. The Wildcats beat Texas on Wednesday, in Manhattan, 58-48 as the Longhorns shot a woeful 28.6% from the field, including 2 of 18 from three-point range. What's interesting about the Wildcats' three game win streak is the last two games were both at home and they were tied at the half. So it's not exactly been a dominant streak we're talking about here. They are only 1-5 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or fewer the previous game. I see the chances for defensive regression being high as they've held the L5 opponents to 40.3% shooting, but for the year, that number jumps substantially away from home as do the number of pts allowed.

You have to remember that there was a time where OU was the talk of College Basketball w/ freshman Trae Young drawing Steph Curry comparisons. I always thought that was a case of putting the cart before the horse and truthfully I'm not shocked the Sooners have regressed (many projection models did not like them even when they were winning). But we've now reached a point where their value could not possibly be lower. What happened Monday (on national TV) was downright humiliating and they've had two more days to prepare than Kansas State did here. The Sooners are still 11-2 SU here in Norman where they average a whopping 93.2 points per game. This has to turn around, right? 8* Oklahoma 

8* Detroit (2:00 ET): This is a regular season finale out in the Horizon League and most likely Detroit's last shot at achieving something meaningful in 2018. The Titans enter Saturday's game w/ an 8-22 SU overall record and are off an ugly 72-49 loss to Milwaukee on Thursday, which took place here at home. A 4-13 conference record has them in last place in the Horizon, but today they honor the seniors in this the final home game. Catching Green Bay just two days after they upended Oakland (as 11.5-pt road dogs) seems advantageous as there's no doubt in my mind which will be the more motivated side here. Lay the points.

The first matchup between these two this season took place all the way back on 12.28. Green Bay won 95-83, but I think it's worth noting they were only 3.5-pt favorites at home. So there has been somewhat of an adjustment from the linesmakers here. The difference in that first meeting was simply the Phoenix taking and making more shots. The number of three-pointers made and FT's attempted were actually identical. But GB had 12 more shot attempts overall and made five more. They also had only nine turnovers compared to 15 for Detroit. None of these things necessarily are likely to repeat themselves, especially w/ the Phoenix now out on the road where they are 1-13 SU this season, allowing 82.1 points per game.

This being the Titans' final home game, there should obviously be some level of motivation present in the locker room. Especially after being blown out here two nights ago. It was a terrible second half, one which they were outscored 40-24. Shooting only 28.6% from the field, over the course of a full game, is hard to do. But the Titans did it Thursday. This is a team that averages over 80 PPG at home, so I expect a massive increase in offensive production this afternoon. This is a team w/ four double digits scorers, mind you. As for Green Bay, they upset Oakland on Thursday due in large part to a career-high 36 pts from Sandy Cohen III. That won't happen again. Nor will the team be able to shoot a collective 57% from the floor again. Something to note from that game is the Phoenix trailed by seven w/ just over four minutes remaining. The win snapped a four-game losing streak as well. 8* Detroit

8* Under Mavs/Lakers (10:35 ET): It was certainly an "interesting" All-Star Break for the Mavs considering their non-descript 1st half to the season would make you think they were one of the least likely candidates to "make noise" during the week off. Of course, said "noise" was not positive as scandal has rocked the front office and owner Mark Cuban has admitted to actively promoting tanking. The Mavs are currently one of four teams in the Western Conference to be tied w/ only 18 wins and while the metrics may suggest they are the "best" of the lot (faint praise, I know!), I'm somewhat afraid the darkest days have yet to hit in "Big D." They open here against a Lakers team that's kind of in a "no-man's land" as the playoffs are not a real possibility, but they're also clearly better than the four 18-win teams.

Two weeks ago these two played and it was a 130-123 win for Dallas. The Mavs' scored at least 30 pts in all four quarters and the Lakers weren't too far behind, scoring 28+. Dirk Nowitzki scored a season-high 22 points in the win. Both teams shot about 54% from the floor and there were 28 total three-pointers made. I would not look for a repeat of that here. Dallas plays at one of the five slowest paces in the league and the Lakers are bottom five in offensive efficiency. When they met in January, the game stayed Under even w/ OT. The totals for those last two matchups were both 213.5. As you can see, the number is substantially higher here.

The Lakers are inconsistent on the defensive end, but still rank in the top half of the league in efficiency. Aside from what happened in the last meeting, Dallas is not a great offensive team. That was obvious in the two games that followed, which saw them score only 97 and 109 pts in losses to Houston and Sacramento. On the road, they barely average over 100 PPG. There could be issues w/ the Lakers offensively as well as Isaiah Thomas is still working his way into the offense and Lonzo Ball may return tonight as well. Those are two players who need the ball in their hands, so it could have an adverse effect on the rest of the team. 8* Under Mavs/Lakers

8* Under Clippers/Suns (9:05 ET): Last night's result has certainly encouraged Over betting for tonight's Clippers tilt. Thursday saw them allow 134 in a loss to the Warriors, but it won't be the two-time champs they're facing tonight, rather it's an opponent at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Prior to the All-Star Break, Phoenix was making its "case" to be considered the worst team in the sport as they've lost seven in a row and 12 of the last 13. The last five games have seen them outscored by an average of 26.6 points per game. That's landed them at the bottom of my own personal power rankings, but for tonight I'm more interested in the total. This number (which was too high to begin with) has been bet up far too much. Take the Over.

Five times during the seven-game losing streak, the Suns have not even broken 100 pts. On offense, they are 29th in efficiency for the season, so this is a major drop in class for the Clippers' defense, which simply had no answer for the Warriors last night. Steph Curry had 44 pts as the Dubs shot 62.7% as a team and made 14 of 25 three-point attempts. There were also a combined 68 free throws attempted in the game (34 for each side). Most, if not all, of those elements are "non-repeatable" tonight. Phoenix lacks a player like Curry that can "go off" (ok, maybe Devin Booker) and they are shooting just over 40 percent from the field the L5 games. The last time they faced the Clippers, they scored only 95 points on 36.1% shooting.

That last meeting, which took place in December, saw a total of 215. That's substantially lower than what we're getting here. Both meetings this season between these two have stayed Under. Those were both in LA. The L4 meetings in Phoenix have all gone Over, but I expect something different here as the Clips are likely "bushed" after last night's game. I still expect defensive improvement, simply based on the change in opponent, but the offense should decline as well. The Clips have shot 50% or better from the floor each of the last three games and simply are "due" for an off-shooting night. The team is just 1-7 SU in the second night of a back to back this season, averaging only 101.6 points per game. 8* Under Clippers/Suns

8* Iona (9:00 ET): Iona has lost B2B games, both as favorites, and this is their final one at home this season. Therefore, I expect a pretty motivated side here tonight. The line is certainly "curious" here when you consider the Gaels beat Manhattan on a neutral floor back in January and did so, 78-65 as seven-point favorites. Now we're getting the same line at home? Sign me up! Iona can sew up a top four finish in the MAAC w/ a win tonight and third place (one-half game back) is certainly within reach. Finishing top three has its advantages for the postseason tournament as you not only draw a bye (top five teams do), but you also get to face an opponent that had to play a 1st rd game two days earlier. I'll lay the points here.

Manhattan is off a win here, 82-72 over Niagara, but this situation has NOT treated them well most of this season. The Jaspers season has been every bit as mediocre as their record indicates (13-15 SU overall, 8-8 MAAC) as they've only posted B2B wins three times and never won three in a row. Granted, their last three losses have all come by four points or less and they haven't lost a conference game by double digits since 1.5 at Monmouth. But I would not look for a repeat of what the Jaspers were able to do offensively to Niagara on Sunday. While team's last two home games have produced their highest two point totals in conference play, Manhattan still only averages 68.6 PPG for the season and 65.8 PPG on the road.

Iona is a high scoring team that averages 79.5 PPG. Their B2B losses have been by a combined five points. They lost by one to Niagara on Friday despite the Purple Eagles losing second leading scorer Mike Scott to injury. Two days later, Manhattan did not have to worry about defending Scott as he was out. There's a bit of a "hidden edge" for Iona here as they've had two extra days to prepare. Not sure they even need it though as the Gaels were able to down the Jaspers by 13 out in Long Island last month. Iona shot very well in that game (54.5 FG%) and that was before Manhattan lost a key rotational player, Aaron Walker Jr, who has since quit the team. Iona has owned Manhattan the L3 seasons, winning and covering all five meetings. They're better rested and more motivated and this line looks like a steal. 8* Iona 

10* Over Sharks/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): Chicago is desperately trying to right the ship here as they are stuck in last place in the Central w/ a lot of ground to make up and many teams to jump, if they are to make the playoffs for a 10th consecutive year. Last Saturday saw them snap an eight-game losing streak w/ a 7-1 win over Washington, looking like the "Blackhawks of old." However, they went right back to their losing ways on Monday as they fell at home to the Kings, 3-1. Wednesday, it was back into the win column w/ a 3-2 win over Ottawa. Tonight's opponent (San Jose) had been playing well. The keyword there though is "had." Last night, they were torched in Nashville, giving up seven goals in an ugly loss (I had the Preds!).

Prior to last night's 7-1 loss, the Sharks had won B2B games as well as five of their last six. Tonight marks their third road game in four nights, which is obviously not a great spot. I'm a little bit concerned over the goaltending right now. Aaron Dell's struggles continued last night as despite making 39 saves, he was responsible for all seven goals allowed. Martin Jones figures to be an obvious choice to start tonight, but I don't see him being able to maintain his save percentage (.947!) from the last four starts either. The Sharks obviously gave up a lot of shots last night (46) and figure to be under siege again here as the Blackhawks average a strong number of shots per game here at the United Center (36.1).

Chicago has its own issues between the pipes right now, namely the ongoing injury situation w/ Corey Crawford, whose absence has coincided w/ the team's tailspin. This is the first game of a back to back for the 'Hawks and HC Joel Quenneville has said he'll be using both Anton Forsberg and Jean-Francois Berube. Truthfully, neither is a great option right now. Forsberg certainly is the more experienced of the two, but the team has gone only 7-15 SU in his 22 starts. Berube has never started, only once coming on in relief and he gave up two goals on 14 shots. San Jose is long overdue to score on the power play as they are 0 for 18 w/ the man advantage the L7 games. This is a team that has the fifth ranked power play in the league this season (22.0%). They'd also scored a total of 12 goals in three games before last night's debacle. 10* Over Sharks/Blackhawks

10* Under T'wolves/Rockets (8:05 ET): There's a lot going on here. Houston went into the Break red hot having won 10 in a row. Even w/ Golden State winning last night, the Rockets remain percentage points ahead of the Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference. They have a slightly better point differential for the year, thus there needs to be a very real conversation over Houston's chances of making it to the NBA Finals. Tonight, they'll host a good Minnesota team that is currently tied for 3rd (w/ San Antonio). Not only have the T'wolves met their lofty preseason expectations, they've arguably exceeded them. Clearly, the elements for a high-scoring affair are present in this one. But I look at that total and to me, the number screams "too high." Take the Under. 

Prior to the Break, Minnesota's last six games all went Over the total. That, along w/ the opponent, explains why the O/U line is so high tonight. Minnesota's last five games have seen an average of 238 total points per game scored, but that includes a wild OT affair w/ Cleveland that they lost 140-138. For the season, the average number of PPG scored when the T'wolves are involved is closer to 215. Now, up in Minnesota two weeks ago, these teams met and Houston won 126-108. The O/U line for that game wasn't quite as high as it is here. Both teams shot well in that game w/ Houston making 22 of its 47 three-point attempts to boot. I can't see that happening again, especially in the first game back from a long layoff. 

Over its last five games, Houston has allowed an average of just 100.2 PPG. That's better than usual, but not dramatically so. Even for them, this is a pretty high total. Note that in that last meeting, 10 of those 22 three-pointers made came in the 4Q. That's a performance that is unlikely to be repeated. Like the T'wolves, the Rockets' average number of total PPG comes up short of the number tonight. Their games average 219.5 PPG. One thing working in our favor here is Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league in three-pointers made. They made only six the last game vs. Houston and that's not too much below the season average. Assuming Houston cools off from downtown, this will be a lower scoring game than two weeks ago. 10* Under T'wolves/Rockets

8* Under Clippers/Warriors (10:35 ET): It sure is nice to have the NBA back. Right out the box, we get a TNT doubleheader, the second game featuring the Clippers and Warriors. This had been a big rivalry the last few seasons, but it's taken a considerable hit due to the Dubs' clear superiority. The Clippers looking poised for a rebuild (traded Blake Griffin to Detroit) doesn't help matters either. But I'm not interested in laying double digits w/ anyone in the first game back after such a long break. Nor am I interested in calling for a game to be as high scoring as the oddsmakers are thinking here. Last time these teams met (in January), the O/U line was 218.5. So there's been a sizable adjustment since. Take the Under.

Now there is a good reason for said adjustment and that's the last six meetings between these two have all gone Over. But a 125-106 surprise win by the Clippers on 1.18 would not have gone Over tonight's total. That game saw both teams shoot pretty well, though Golden State did not hit their season-long average of 115.8 points per game. Still, even w/ their games being the highest scoring on average in the league, we're talking about 223.5 PPG, which is well below what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. At home, it's a slightly less number of points per game, thanks to the defensive end. Golden State never gets enough credit for their work on the defensive end of the floor, by the way. They are #5 currently in defensive efficiency.

Before the All-Star Break, eight of the Clippers' last nine games stayed Under. The lone exception came in the final game where they scored 129 pts on Boston of all opponents. The Celtics are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, but were definitely having their problems going into the Break. I don't see any such problems for the Warriors here. The Clips are 8-3 Under this season w/ a total north of 220 points and the only game w/ a total of 230+ was against Houston and also stayed Under. After such a long break, don't be surprised if both offenses come out a bit rusty. Granted, several Warriors participated in the All-Star Game, but there's a big difference between that and "real" live NBA competition. Golden State has had "1st Quarter issues" this season in that they've actually fallen behind in 17 of the last 30 games. 8* Under Clippers/Warriors

10* St. Mary's (10:00 ET): Pepperdine has had some success recently, at the pay window only, cashing two in a row as double digit dogs. But the fact remains this is a very bad basketball team, one w/ a 4-24 overall SU record that has yet to win a single time away from home (0-13 SU) and is just 1-15 SU in conference play. Tonight, the Waves find themselves in the unenviable position of having to fact St. Mary's, after just playing at Gonzaga last weekend. Full disclosure, I laid the big number w/ Gonzaga on Saturday and they never really came close to covering the 25-pt spread. However, we're getting some additional value on St. Mary's b/c of that and once again, I'll call for a bad team to get blown out. Lay it!

St. Mary's has seemingly yet to recover from losing to Gonzaga (here at home) earlier this month. The Gaels entered that game w/ an unbeaten home record and unbeaten conference record. Both were blemished by a Zags team that I was on, in a 78-65 "upset." St. Mary's would then go out and lose its next game (at San Francisco), 70-63 as nine-point favorites. They finally got back in the win column last Saturday, winning at Portland by 12 points, but again failed to cover. Starting guard Emmett Naar also left the game because of an ankle injury and did not return. But he's listed as probable to play tonight and I'm not sure the Gaels would even need him given the opposition. 

Pepperdine's lone WCC win came by a single point over ninth place Loyola Marymount (this is a 10-team league). They are very bad defensively, giving up over 80 PPG on the season. As I mentioned in the analysis for the Gonzaga game, they are playing for a lame duck head coach as it's already been announced Marty Wilson will not return next year. Since that announcement, the team has played tough, covering not only against Gonzaga, but also taking BYU into overtime. But playing the top three teams in the league, all in a row, is certainly not desirable. St. Mary's is already outscoring visitors by 16.5 PPG and virtually all of those opponents are better than this one. The Gaels already beat Pepperdine once this year, by 17 on the road, and there's no reason NOT to believe it won't be a larger MOV at home. 10* St. Mary's

8* Stanford (9:00 ET): According to bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Washington is currently among the first four out in the latest projections. That's a precarious place to be, but in my estimation, the Huskies should feel fortunate to even be in that spot as in my own personal power rankings, they're just outside the top 100. That's a few slots behind tonight's opponent, Stanford, who isn't even under any legit NCAA Tournament consideration. This weekend marks the final home games in Palo Alto this season w/ the Cardinal hosting the two Washington schools. A strong finish to the regular season could definitely improve their standing in the upcoming Pac 12 Tourney as a fourth place finish is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. I'll lay the points w/ the better team playing at home here. 

Both teams split their pair of games last week. But the difference is Washington played twice at home while Stanford was on the road for both games. The Huskies lost to Utah last Thursday, 70-58, but then bounced back w/ a big 82-59 win over Colorado. Stanford lost at Colorado on Thursday, but was able to bounce back by beating Cal 77-73 as five-point chalk. Curiously, given Cal's last place standing in the conference, the smart money moved against the Cardinal in that one and proved to be correct for doing so. Stanford is on a three-game ATS losing skid overall, but all three games were on the road. At home, they're 11-5 straight up. 

Adding to the case for Stanford here is the fact they already beat UW up in Seattle last month. It was a 73-64 final where the Cardinal came in as a 4.5-pt underdog. Washington did not shoot well in that game, connecting on only 37.5% overall, including 5 of 22 from three-point range. Normally, there might be an expectation of an improved offensive performance in the rematch, but not on the road. The Huskies' last two road games resulted in a 25-pt loss to Oregon and a loss (in double overtime) to Oregon State. The Oregon loss saw them score only 40 pts in a truly putrid performance. As for Stanford, the last time they were at home, they beat Oregon by 35 points! So homecourt advantage definitely plays a significant role in handicapping this matchup. Stanford has lost only two Pac 12 home games (one vs. Arizona) and those two losses were by a combined five points. 8* Stanford

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): I'm not sure which team is going to end up winning the Central, but the "smart money" is probably on either Nashville or Winnipeg. The Predators are currently ahead (by only two points) as they've won B2B games. Them being in first place is also owed to the fact they're the one team in the division w/ a decent road record (only 7 regulation losses). Tonight, the Preds are at home though, hosting San Jose. For the Sharks, winning a division is probably out of the question as they trail Vegas by 10 points in the Pacific. Still, finishing second would be huge as that means they could have home ice advantage in a 1st round playoff series (likely against Anaheim or LA). So a lot is on the line here tonight.

The Sharks have won three straight, beating Vancouver, Dallas and St. Louis. That last one came on the road as all five goals were scored in the second period (was a 3-2 final). This is going to be a tough road trip though as not only do the Sharks have to play here, but they're in Chicago tomorrow night, then Minnesota on Sunday. It is interesting that San Jose's only loss in the L6 games came at home to lowly Arizona. But they've had little luck here in Music City in the past, losing 9 of the last 10 visits. Despite being a solid team most of this season, the Sharks have only one win streak of more than three games and that took place all the way back in late October/early November. Since then, they're 0-3 SU when on a 3-game win streak, getting outscored 16-5 in those games.

Nashville should have a rested Pekka Rinne in goal for this one as he sat out Tuesday's 3-2 win at Detroit. Juuse Suaros turned in a solid effort in his place, stopping 34 shots there. Rinne is 30-9-4 SU on the season w/ a 2.35 GAA and .926 save percentage. That latter number is top five in the league. The Preds are 20-7-3 SU at home this year and no slouch offensively as they average 3.5 goals per game here. They'll be tested here, but they're also the better team playing on home ice and have their #1 goalie rested and ready to go. I see the Predators holding serve in this key Western Conference battle. 8* Nashville

10* Over Blue Jackets/Flyers (7:05 ET): This is a rematch from last week when Philly went into Columbus and won in overtime, by a score of 2-1. That served as a continuation of a trend (that's since held) which has the two teams heading in very opposite directions. In the midst of the muddled Metropolitan Division, the Flyers are strengthening their position of late by winning 7 of 8. I had them Tuesday as they again won in overtime, this time 3-2 over Montreal. They're also now 23-8-3 since December 4th and haven't lost a game in regulation since the 1st of the month at New Jersey. The Flyers' 72 pts have them sitting in a nice spot (third in the division) while the Blue Jackets have dropped 8 of 11 (3-6-2) and are in 5th in the Metro. But a gap is forming between the top four and the bottom four in the division.

Expect a higher scoring game this time around. Last week's 2-1 win in Columbus saw the Flyers give up 36 shots, so they were a bit lucky to win there. They've now gone into extra time six of the last nine games. Their number of "loser points" (OT/SO losses) are tied for second most in the league w/ 10, so this is a team that's gone beyond regulation often. Recently though, they've been coming out ahead more often than not. However, there are two concerns I have moving forward. One is the penalty killing. The Flyers have gotten away w/ having zero players in the box the L3 games. They are only 28th on the PK (75.0%), so if/when they do take a penalty (tonight?), look for them to potentially give up a goal there. Also, there's the goaltending situation. Petr Mrazek was brought over from Detroit, almost out of necessity, and likely makes his 1st start here tonight. The team's top two goalies - Brian Elliott and Michael Neuvirth - are both on IR. Expected regression from the PK unit (simply by being out there!) and question marks between the pipes should be conducive to more Overs.

At the least the Flyers are sixth on the power play, while Columbus is 27th on the PK. So, Philly has that going for itself. With two teams so bad down a man, I expect multiple PP goals in this one. I also should mention that the Flyers have scored 4+ goals in five of the last seven contests. Meanwhile, Columbus is due to start scoring more given the number of shots the L6 games. Ironically, they beat Montreal Tuesday (2-1) despite only 19 shots on goal. But in the five games prior, they got off 50, 51, 57, 36 and 37 shots. That's a ton! The Blue Jackets are also 6-2 Over when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Over Flyers/Blue Jackets

8* Over Flames/Golden Knights (10:35 ET): Vegas suffered a RARE home defeat on Monday, and a shutout at that, losing 2-0 to Anaheim. Not to worry though, the Pacific Division leaders still own a 22-5-2 won-loss record in Sin City where they average a very healthy 3.6 goals per game. Only three teams in the league score more at home, and one of them (Winnipeg) was part of a successful Over play I had last night (the Jets lost to the Kings 4-3). I also won an Over play w/ the Golden Knights their game before the Anaheim loss, that being a 6-3 win over Montreal. A bounce back offensively has to be expected here, but at the same time I question the goaltending (of Vegas). Take the Over.

As you know, eight teams make the playoffs in each conference. The top three in the two divisions (per conference) are guaranteed six of those spots and then there are two Wild Cards, which can come from either division. Taking inventory right now, I see seven playoff probables in the Western Conference: Nashville, Winnipeg, Dallas, St. Louis, Vegas, San Jose and Los Angeles. Calgary is one of three teams I see as an option for the second of the two WC spots, along w/ Minnesota and Anaheim. Currently, the Flames are two points behind those two, so you can see just how important a win would be here. Easier said than done, but they are in the top 10 in goals per game scored on the road this season. 

Like the Golden Knights, the Flames are off a low-scoring loss, theirs coming at home to Boston by a 2-1 count (game went to overtime). But this was on the heels of three straight Overs w/ them scoring seven times in the two games prior. All three games saw at least seven total goals scored. This has actually been a better team on the road this year (17-7-5). A concern I do have w/ Calgary here though is David Rittich starting between the pipes. His last four starts have brought a save percentage of .890. Vegas remains non-committal between the pipes, but I've long been suspicious of their success in that area. They are 5-1 Over this season though after being held to 1 or 0 goals the previous game. Five of the last six games have seen the Knights finish w/ 33+ shots on goal. 8* Over Flames/Golden Knights

8* Nevada (10:00 ET): The class of the Mountain West, Nevada, can pretty much "name its score" here as they host the last place team in the conference, that being San Jose State. The Wolfpack have climbed into the the Top 25 (currently #20) thanks to three straights wins and covers. The most recent was Saturday when they won at Utah State, 93-87, shooting 59.3% from the field. I may be a little more skeptical of their chances for success next month, but there are computer systems (such as KenPom) that essentially agree w/ the pollsters. Where there is no debate is the fact they are head and shoulders above the rest of the Mt West. They are 12-2 SU in conference play, outscoring opponents by a healthy margin. Lay the big number here. 

San Jose State, meanwhile, has yet to even win a single conference game this season. They are 0-14 straight up, losing by an average of 14.6 points per game. Keep in mind that the majority of teams in the Mt. West are nowhere near as good as Nevada. In the first meeting of the season, Nevada beat SJSU by 17, 71-54, and that was on the road. The Spartans weren't actually as fortunate to cover as you might think as they even led at the half! However, that game marked (at the time) season lows for Nevada in point scored (24), field goals made (8) and shooting percentage (26.7%) in a half (all in the 1st). There is no basis to claim SJSU is capable of holding Nevada "in check" like that again. Note only one of the Spartans' losses on the conference road this year did not come by double digits. That loss was by nine points at UNLV. 

Nevada is 12-1 SU in Reno this season, its only loss coming at the hands of TCU, who was ranked #20 at the time. Over the last week, they recorded a pair of road wins (over Boise State and Utah State) and both are tough places to play (hence the relatively small MOV). Ranked #11 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom), the Wolfpack average 85.3 points per game at home. San Jose State is already giving up more than 80 PPG in conference play coming into tonight. So I expect the Wolfpack to "blow by" the 71 pts they scored in the first meeting. San Jose State is 1-12 SU on the road this year (-13.5 PPG). Nevada has covered 28 of its last 42 home games. 8* Nevada

10* Pittsburgh (9:00 ET): This season has been a complete disaster for once powerful Pitt. Not only are they 8-20 SU overall, but they're also winless in ACC play (0-15 SU!). Things have gotten really dire recently w/ six consecutive double digits losses, four of those coming by at least 23 points. Tonight, they host the second worst team in the conference in what is their last realistic shot at achieving a conference victory in 2018. Now, we do know the Panthers are significantly worse than the field in the ACC. But are they this much worse than Wake Forest? I don't think so. The Demon Deacons, just 2-7 SU in "true" road games this year, being favored by this many away from home is pretty much unprecedented. Take the points.

Wake has won only three ACC games this season and all were in Winston-Salem. The most recent came last week, 79-62 over Georgia Tech, who is third from the bottom in the league. The Demon Deacons then resumed their losing ways on Saturday as they fell to NC State (as a favorite?!), 90-84, and trailed by double digits for much of the second half. Given the line (-2.5), obviously it was a home game. The road, particularly the conference road, has been quite unkind this season. They are 0-7 SU in ACC road games and while only two of those losses have come by double digits (Duke, Louisville), it's a whole different dynamic w/ the Demon Deacons being favored here. This is a team being outscored by almost six points per game in conference play and they're favored on the road, prohibitively so. Not sure I've ever seen such a thing.

Now obviously, there's not a whole lot of positive spin for Pitt here. Their last win occurred all the way back on 12.22 against Towson. However, I will point out they are at least a respectable 7-9 SU at home, which is where all but one of their wins this season have come. Defensively, they've been a lot better here. The Panthers showed some fight over the weekend against Florida State, even leading at the half (on the road!). But they couldn't overcome a foul trouble and a corresponding disparity at the FT line where the Seminoles had 18 more attempts. Make no mistake about it - this is a play AGAINST WF, who simply should not be favored by this many on the road, no matter the opponent. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Over Kings/Jets (8:05 ET): The Kings failed to deliver me an Over bet last night, but I'm sure that was the last thing on their mind as they beat the Blackhawks 3-1. That much needed win pulled them into a fourth place tie w/ Calgary in the Pacific as well as kept them on pace in the playoff hunt. There's two ways the Kings can get into the playoffs. Finishing in the top three in the division would guarantee them a spot (they're currently two points back of Anaheim) or there's the Wild Card (they're currently two points back of Minnesota). They have a better goal differential than both of those teams, not to mention all but three teams in the entire Western Conference. Problem is, they'll be facing one of those three tonight, on the road no less.

Winnipeg is not an easy place to win at. The Jets have the league's best home record (23-5-2) and have won three in a row here, all in dominant fashion. They've outscored Washington, Colorado and Florida by a combined score 17-6 over the last week and it's certainly important to note that this will be their sixth straight home game overall while LA is playing its seventh straight on the road. This is the last game of the respective homestand/road trip for each. So it's easy to see why the Jets come in as such prohibitive favorites. But the price does seem a bit inflated, so I won't be taking them either.

Rather, it's back to Over w/ the Kings tonight. Typically a "third period team," the Kings scored all three of their goals last night in the first two periods and held on for a 3-1 victory. They now rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed per game (2.5) and have the third best penalty killing unit (83.5%). But here they'll be facing a team that is not only #3 in goals scored per game overall (3.3), but also first at home (3.83 gpg). We've seen what they can do the L3 games. The Kings have been giving up more shots than usual lately and Jonathan Quick has been a bit inconsistent this month. On the flip side, the Kings have scored at least three goals in seven of their last eight games. They had 39 shots on goal in a 2-1 home loss to the Jets back in November. Were they to get off a similar number tonight, I suspect we'd see a lot more goals scored. 10* Over Kings/Jets

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Stop me if you've heard this before ... the Metropolitan Division is logjammed and every game matters. It's a virtual lock that five teams from the Metro will make the playoffs, but outside of Washington and Pittsburgh, it's unclear just who will comprise the quintet. All eight teams in the division are definitely alive, but we're starting to (finally) just now see some separation. The Flyers are one of two teams (also the Devils) that happen to be closing in on the top two (Caps and Pens) in the division. Remember finishing third is huge as it guarantees a playoff berth. The Flyers enter today tied w/ the Devils for third at 70 points each. Tonight, they face a team trending in the opposite direction. 

That would be Montreal, losers of five in a row. The Habs are in a terrible spot here as they just played three straight out West (Colorado, Arizona, Vegas) in a four-day span. I had the Over in their 6-3 loss to Vegas. Antti Niemi got the start between the pipes and was a disaster, giving up three goals on the first six shots. He was quickly replaced by Carey Price, but as I've discussed previously the former Vezina winner is not having himself a good season either. Price's save percentage his L4 games is a hideous .870 and for the year, he's below .900 on the road. Throw in the fact that Montreal also ranks 29th in goals scored per game and there's just not a lot to like about this club right now. It's easy to see why they are one of the worst in the Eastern Conference.

This will be the Habs' second visit to the City of Brotherly Love this month. The five-game losing streak started here on Feb 8th w/ a 5-3 setback. I'm not sure there's a case to be made as to why tonight will turn out any differently. The Flyers have won seven of eight, a streak which got going w/ the return of goaltender Brian Elliott, but has continued despite uncertainly between the pipes. Elliott is injured again as is backup Michael Neuvirth (questionable for tonight). But Alex Lyon certainly got all the help he needed Sunday afternoon when the team scored seven goals in a rout of the Rangers at MSG. That marked the fifth time in the last six games that the Flyers scored at least four goals. The team did just acquire Petr Mrazek in a deadline deal w/ Detroit. But the bottom line is that this team is 22-8-3 since 12.4 w/ no regulation losses the L8 games. It's a terrible spot for Montreal, who has already lost all four visits here the last three seasons. 8* Philadelphia

8* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Going into Friday, Rhode Island had the nation's longest win streak and was one of two teams in the country that could still claim to having a perfect (SU) conference record. Well, both of those things are no more after losing to St. Bonaventure, 77-74 as two-point favorites. Tonight is a tricky spot as they're a road fave for a second straight game and laying a pretty big number to boot. LaSalle has certainly had its fair share of struggles at the pay window this season (8-16-2 ATS overall), particularly of late as they've failed to cover 11 of their previous 12 games. But there's no denying the Explorers will be "up" for their biggest A-10 home game of the season. I'm taking the points as URI is primed for a letdown.

Before facing the Bonnies, Rhode Island had won 16 in a row. They remain ranked this week, at #18, but I think that's far too high as this isn't even one of the top 25 teams in the country (my opinion). They lost to St. Bonaventure despite holding them to 38.1% shooting. The A-10 is very weak this year as the only way it gets multiple bids in the NCAA Tournament is if someone besides URI wins the conference tourney. The Rams did beat LaSalle last month, but pushed as 12-pt favorites (won 74-62). Looking at that line for the first matchup, it's clear that the oddsmakers have adjusted. But why? It's not as if LaSalle was blown out the first time. I can only suspect that it's because the Rams are off a loss, and thus there's an anticipation of a "bounce back." But that's no guarantee.

There's also a key factor worth noting from that first matchup. LaSalle was w/o the A-10's leading scorer B.J. Johnson. He's been back for the L10 games and averaged 18.9 PPG. He's been in double figures all 10 games. For the year, Johnson averages 20.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. So his absence was definitely key to the Explorers losing by 12 in that first meeting. Since his return, the team is 4-1 SU at home. All four Rhode Island losses this season have come out on the road. Though they did not cover Saturday, LaSalle did win SU on Saturday, 69-62 over George Mason. They did have to rally from a 13-pt halftime deficit as GMU shot better than 60% in the 1H. Still, being able to win (by seven!) despite all that is impressive. 8* LaSalle.

10* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): There's definitely been a bit of a "fall from grace" for A&M since SEC play began as the team is just 6-8 SU in games played in 2018. They are coming off B2B losses, both on the road, as short dogs to Missouri and Arkansas. Yet, they are still considered as a "safe bet" for the Big Dance next month and digging through the numbers, it's easy to see why. First off, they remain in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. That's something that can carry a team a long way in March. Secondly, there's a good chance they could be favored in each of their four remaining games. So even though they are an ugly NINTH in the SEC right now, look for that to improve by the end of the regular season. Lay the points here.

On Tuesday, it will be Mississippi State that comes calling to College Station. The Bulldogs just whacked rival Ole Miss on Saturday, 79-62 as 7.5-pt favorites, for their seventh consecutive cover. However, it hasn't exactly been the most challenging SEC gauntlet for them. They've avoided Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky and Arkansas, who collectively I believe are the top five teams in the conference. A&M would be 6th for me. Note that just one game separates third from eighth place in this league right now. Note that the win over Ole Miss did not come w/o some attrition. Aric Holman, one of the Bulldogs' three double digit scorers, injured his leg and is questionable to play tonight. His absence here would be significant.

Given A&M's defensive prowess, don't look for MSU to come anywhere close to shooting 56.4% like it did vs. Ole Miss. Visitors to College Station are shooting only 38.0% from the field this season. While they're 17-1 SU in Starkville, Mississippi State is only 2-7 SU otherwise (road/neutral site games) w/ one of those two wins coming at a neutral setting. A&M is outscoring opponents by 13.8 PPG at home so far. Saturday's loss at Arkansas was arguably the worst showing by the Aggies all season and something they'll be eager to bounce back from. Something else to note about A&M is that they are third in the country (1st in SEC) in rebounding margin. This is a team that won at Auburn less than two weeks ago and also beat Kentucky by 11 on this floor. They're simply a much better team than MSU. 10* Texas A&M

8* Akron (7:00 ET): We haven't checked in on the MAC much this season, but a quick glance at the standings reveals both divisions are essentially "sewn up" w/ Buffalo taking the East and Toledo likely to do the same in the West. Only one other team is above .500 in conference play and that's Ball State. So for Akron and Bowling Green, the only goal at this point is to win next month's conference tournament in Cleveland. Akron would also like a repeat of what they did to BG back on January 13th at the James A. Rhodes Arena and that's win. It was an 80-78 victory as 3.5-pt favorites. Curious that despite the non-cover, we've seen the line adjusted so much. As I'll get into, that has a lot to do w/ recent ATS performance, which we can exploit here. Take the points. 

Akron has won just one of its last seven games. They're also 1-5 ATS L6. But they also came into that 1st matchup w/ Bowling Green on a three-game losing streak. Overall, the Zips have really had the Falcons number, taking 26 of the last 28 meetings. This is considered a real "down year" in LeBron's hometown as this team is used to competing for MAC Championships. Saturday's 78-68 loss to rival Kent State was perhaps the most disappointing result of the year as the Zips shot just 39.1% from the floor and lost to a team that had dropped its four previous games. Incredibly, Akron has not won a single time away from home this season (0-12!), including 0-9 in "true" road games. But tonight they'll be facing a team that gives up plenty of points and is unaccustomed to the role of favorite. 

Bowling Green enters this game on a six-game ATS win streak. But they did lose Saturday, 95-82 to Buffalo (covered as 14-pt dogs). They trailed by as many as 17 in the 1H and had no answer for the Bulls defensively. Buffalo shot 60 percent from three-point range (12 of 20), essentially giving the Falcons little chance to catch up. Bowling Green is giving up 77.4 points per game this year, which is a lot (221st in points allowed), and it's worth noting that the only time they were favored in this 6-0 ATS stretch saw them -1 against Kent State. Overall, this will be just the fourth time that they are favored in MAC play this season and sixth time overall. After scoring 80+ pts the previous game, they are 1-4 ATS this season. 8* Akron

8* Oklahoma (9:00 ET): I think many of us knew that regression was coming for Oklahoma, we just didn't think it would be quite this severe. The Sooners lost their fifth consecutive game on Saturday, falling in Norman to rival Texas by a score of 77-66. It was their third time losing as a favorite during the streak. Even worse is OU has now failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games and is also 1-10 ATS its L11! All this sounds very bad as they head to Allen Fieldhouse on Monday, a place where they have not won at since 1993 when both schools were still apart of the Big 8 conference. The losing streak currently stands at 16 and counting. Not sure if OU can "right the ship" and win straight up here, but I do like them plus the points. 

One reason to like OU plus the points here is they already beat Kansas this year. Just last month, it was 85-80 in their favor down in Norman. Led by sensational freshman Trae Young's 26 points, they were able to rally back for the victory (trailed by as many as eight in the 2H). But there was also a strategy employed by HC Lon Krueger, reminiscent of the "hack a (insert poor free throw shooter's name here)" that we sometimes see in the NBA. It was done to Kansas' Udoka Azubuike, who ended up missing 7 of 8 FT's. Azubuike was much better from the charity stripe Saturday vs. WVU (also led the team w/ 21 pts), so it will be interesting to see how Krueger handles him tonight. One thing is for sure though and that's Young needs to get back on track. While he still leads the nation in scoring (29.1 PPG) and assists (9.3 per game), he's gone just 10 of 51 from three-point range the L5 games. I "smell" a bounce back. 

Kansas was very fortunate to get by West Virginia here on Saturday. The Jayhawks benefited from an almost unheard of 35-2 advantage in free throw attempts in an eight-point win. Unlike years' past, the Jayhawks have not been infallable here in Lawrence, already losing three times, including once to Oklahoma State. It's been almost exactly one month since KU won three in a row and they are 2-7 ATS this year off a Big 12 victory. The FT disparity they enjoyed vs. WVU was their largest EVER in a Big 12 game. They trailed that game by as many as 12 in the 2H and did not pull ahead by enough to cover (which they ended up doing) until the final minute of the game. 8* Oklahoma

10* Over Kings/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): Back in 2014, the Kings and Blackhawks met in the Western Conference Finals w/ the former advancing in a seven game series. Fast forward four years to the present and both are now struggling just to make the playoffs. I was on the Kings Saturday as they picked up what I called in my analysis a "must win" at Buffalo (won 4-2). However, they are still two points back of the final spot in the Western Conference playoff picture and have two more games to go on this seven-game road trip. Things are looking far more dire in the Windy City though. Chicago is in last place in the Central Division and just picked up its first win of February on Saturday (albeit in very impressive fashion). 

It had been eight straight defeats for the Blakhawks before the beat Washington 7-1 here on Saturday. Few could have seen that coming considering how the club had been playing previously. Looking at the gap they face to make the playoffs and how many teams they have to jump, I think we're looking at the first non-playoff year in Chicago since 2007-08. However, there's no denying that you have to like what you saw from the offense against the Capitals. Seven different players scored and they got off 44 shots on goal. Getting off shots has not been an issue for the Blackhawks, even during the losing streak. Three times in the last five games, they've had exactly 44 shots on goal. They've averaged 40.2 per game overall during that span.

The Kings generally win w/ defense as they are #2 in the league in goals allowed and have the third best penalty killing unit. However, they've also scored three or more goals in six of the last seven games. Based on the number of goals vs. shots we've seen recently, they too are due for an increase in scoring moving forward. At the same time, they're also allowing more shots per game than we're used to seeing. They've allowed 35 or more shots in four of the last five games and Jonathan Quick has been a little bit suspect in goal lately. Of course, Chicago has bigger goaltending issues w/ Corey Crawford still out. Anton Forsberg is your likely starter here and he's got an .894 save percentage his L4 starts. 10* Over Kings/Blackhawks

10* Northern Kentucky (7:30 ET): Northern Kentucky figures to be in an ornery mood tonight when they hit the court for their final home game of the regular season. That's because the Norse, 19-8 SU on the season and co-leaders in the Horizon League, are off a two-point loss at Wright State on Friday. That result is what has those two teams tied atop the Horizon, each 12-3 SU in league play. Tonight's opponent - Youngstown State - is NOT in the mix for the regular season crown, in fact the Penguins are just 6-10 SU in league play and 8-21 SU overall. These teams met on the first of the month and while NKU won 95-85, they actually failed to cover as 11-pt road chalk. Still, that line suggests the number for tonight's home date should be a lot higher. Lay the points.

Northern Kentucky had won five in a row heading into the Wright State game. The final result is made even more disappointing by the fact Wright State also won the first meeting here in Highland Heights. For the season, that's one of only two home losses for the Norse, who now must deal w/ the fact they lose the tiebreak to Wright State. They are outscoring teams by an impressive 21.4 PPG here at home and when you couple that w/ Youngstown State's poor road mark, then the potential for a blowout is obviously there. YSU gives up a frightening number of points per game on the road (86.7!) w/ opponents shooting 52.4% against them. I see this as a clear "get well" spot for the home side. 

Playing its final home game when off a loss should be all the motivation the Norse need this evening. Then you throw in the fact the opponent is not a good team and that's why I'm willing to lay the big number here. Youngstown State is just 2-16 SU away from home this year while being outscored by roughly 16 PPG. That's against mostly inferior competition than what they'll face tonight. Friday saw the Penguins lose by 10 at home to Detroit, the last place team in the Horizon League. That snapped a two-game win streak, however, the Penguins have still allowed 80+ pts in six of the last seven games w/ three teams going over 90. Northern Kentucky holds teams to 38.1% shooting here at home. 10* Northern Kentucky

10* Purdue (8:00 ET): What on Earth has happened to the Boilermakers? It seems as if it wasn't even two weeks ago that they were considered among the consensus top three teams in America (alongside Villanova and Virginia) and poised to - easily - earn a top seed in next month's NCAA Tournament. But, suddenly and shockingly, they've dropped three in a row. Last week, they lost to Ohio State and Michigan State (the other top of the top three in the Big 10) by a combined four points. That was somewhat excusable even though the loss to OSU was at home and saw the Boilers blow a 14-pt second half advantage. But I was shocked to see them lose at Wisconsin on Thursday as 11-pt favorites. After all, this is the same team that had won 19 in a row prior to the current three-game skid. I'm still willing to lay the points in this spot.

While Purdue is looking to rebound tonight, Penn State is going to be avoiding any kind of letdown following a shockingly brilliant performance at home Thursday against Ohio State. The beat the Buckeyes 79-56 (were -1.5), completing a season sweep, and keep in mind those are the Buckeyes' only two Big 10 losses this season. Overall, the Nittany Lions have now won four in a row as they try and make their case that they belong among the field of 68 next month. As of right now, they still are not considered a safe bet to make it. A win here over Purdue would certainly go along way in changing that, but easier said than done. Ohio State is the lone ranked team PSU has defeated this season (non-conf schedule was weak) and Purdue is 14-1 SU at home, winning by an average margin of almost 25 PPG. 

I simply can't see Purdue losing a fourth straight game, nor at home again. This is clearly still a Top 5 team in America and I think they are #2 (behind only Villanova). They and Michigan State are the only two teams in the country to rank in the top 10 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). In fact, Gonzaga is the only other team to rank in the top 20 in both. Penn State has not won a game here in West Lafayette since 2006. Once again on Thursday, the Boilermakers blew a 2H lead (led Wisconsin by 7). They easily could have won all three games during the losing streak. They take their frustrations out here on the Nittany Lions. 10* Purdue

8* Illinois (3:30 ET): Back on January 15th, Illinois lost a one-point game in Lincoln, NE (64-63), but still managed to cover the spread as four-point dogs. Fast forward to the present and Nebraska has covered in every game since, going an impressive 8-0 ATS. In fact, the Cornhuskers have one of the best ATS records in the country right now as they are 20-6 overall at the pay window, including covers in 16 of their last 17 lined contests. Still though, they are NOT considered a NCAA Tournament team. By Big 10 standards, they've faced a relatively lackluster schedule w/ a 20-pt home win over Michigan being the exception to the rule. They are 0-4 SU against Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State, all of those losses coming on the road. 

Now Illinois most definitely is nowhere close to the upper echelon of the Big 10. As a matter of fact, they're in last place w/ a 2-12 SU conference record. Wednesday saw them suffer a fourth consecutive loss, 78-68 at Indiana, as the Hoosiers shot a ridiculous 59.1% from the floor. Poor three-point shooting certainly didn't help as the Illini went 1 for 12 from behind the arc. Also, they were just 20 of 30 from the free throw line. The 25 pts scored in the 1st half were a season-low, but the key number here is 75 as Illinois has not won a game all season when giving up that many points. Fortunate for them, Nebraska averages "only" 68.9 PPG on the road where they've been outscored for the season. The Illini are a somewhat surprising 11-5 SU at home and average 81.2 PPG here. 

In that first meeting, Illinois again shot poorly, making only 39.0% of its total shots, including 3 of 18 from three-point range. Yet they still only lost by one on the road. Seven of Nebraska's previous 11 games have been decided by six points or fewer, with five of those being wins, so the record really could look a lot different coming into this one. I happen to agree w/ the "experts" that this is NOT a Tourney team and its worth noting that more often than not, the Cornhuskers have been an underdog in Big 10 play. The current six-game win streak is their longest of the season and I see the "bubble bursting" (not necessarily permanently) today in what looks to be a tricky spot. This is Illinois' second to last home game and their best shot at a win (Purdue is final home game). 8* Illinois 

8* Over Oilers/Avalanche (3:05 ET): Look for the scoreboard to be plenty busy in this Western Conference matchup Sunday. Few, if any, could have predicted that Colorado would have more points than Edmonton at this point in the season. But the former has certainly been one of the more "pleasant" surprises of this NHL season, going from worst team in the league (by a mile) last year to potential playoff entrant. Edmonton, on the other hand, is arguably this year's biggest disappointment. The fanbase believe the team was ready to challenge for a Stanley Cup, but instead they won't even be making the playoffs.

The disappointment continued for the Oilers yday as they were shutout in Arizona, 1-0. That's the worst team in the league they were shutout by, mind you. It's not like Edmonton didn't have its fair share of chances though; they had 40 shots on goal for the game. It had to very disappointing to lose in that fashion considering the previous three games (all losses) saw the Oilers allow a total of 17 goals. The team has now dropped six in a row and ranks 29th in the league in goals allowed. Their special teams are absolutely horrific as they rank dead last on the power play and in penalty killing. In the first five games of the current losing streak, they allowed three or more goals every time. That doesn't even include a 4-3 home loss to Colorado on Feb 1, an easy Over. 

Colorado didn't fare well its last time out either as they lost 6-1 at Winnipeg. It was their second 6-1 loss in the last five games as the Blues got them by that same score back on Feb 8th. Goal scoring has become an issue recently for the Avs as they've been held to two or fewer in four of the previous five games. But this matchup should change that. Leading scorer Nathan MacKinnon is back and the team's offensive dip can directly be tied to his absence. MacKinnon was 2nd in the league in goals scored when he injured his left shoulder Jan 30th in Vancouver. The Avs have won 10 in a row on home ice w/ the last loss here at the Pepsi Center coming all the way back on December 27th! They've scored a total of 38 goals in those 10 wins. Both teams' goaltending situations are suspect here. Edmonton may have to turn to Laurent Brossoit as Cam Talbot was between the pipes last night and regular backup Al Montoya took a puck to the face in practice Friday. Brossoit has an .886 save percentage for the year. Colorado's Semyon Varlamov is coming off a 44-save shutout Wednesday vs. Montreal, but shouldn't be expected to repeat that kind of performance. 8* Over Oilers/Avalanche

8* Tulsa (3:00 ET): Something that we need to get "out on the table" right away here is that USF is not a good team. The Bulls have dropped six straight and 13 of 14 overall here in conference play. That obviously has them in last place in the American and really there's no "light at the end of the tunnel" here. Back on Wednesday, they lost by 15 at UCF as the numbers continue to get uglier and uglier. This afternoon, they visit a Tulsa team that already beat them once this year - by nine points - despite shooting only 29.1% for the game! I can't remember the last time I saw a team shoot below 30% from the field and win. The Golden Hurricane not only won that Feb 4th meeting, they also covered as 7.5-pt road chalk. Now that they're the home team, I'm not sure as to why they're not favored by more. Lay the points.

There's a clear top three in the American (Cincinnati, Wichita St, Houston) and really a top two (sans Houston), if you want to be frank about it. But Tulsa is streaking its way into the fourth position thanks to a four-game win streak. That includes the win in Tampa two weeks ago, which has been followed up w/ a pair of two-point victories. Thursday, they upset UConn - in Storrs - as three-point road underdogs. That game saw the Golden Hurricane hit 11 three-pointers and shoot 55.3% overall from the field. Sterling Taplin led the way w/ a career-best 30 points. Despite not winning the rebounding battle against UConn (surprising), Tulsa is still +11.3 rebounds/game compared to its last three opponents. They were able to rally back from a nine-point halftime deficit as they swept UConn for the 1st time ever.

Now USF must contend w/ the fact Tulsa is a very good home team. The Golden Hurricane have covered 25 of their last 36 here at the Donald W. Reynolds Center and are 10-2 SU here this season, averaging 81.2 PPG. Meanwhile, USF is bad no matter where they play. They are being outscored by roughly 17 PPG by conference opponents and the road has been particularly unkind this year w/ a 2-9 SU record that has seen them get outscored by 17.3 PPG. This spread being several points under that average makes little sense to me as the Bulls are being outshot this season by an incredible margin and I project that to continue here. 8* Tulsa

8* Gonzaga (8:00 ET): Laying a number this large can potentially be pretty dangerous especially when you consider Gonzaga has NOT been very good at the pay window of late. To be fair though, a lot of that has to do w/ the fact that the WCC schedule - more often than not - isn't going to inspire them to the degree that the oddsmakers are calling for. At one point, they failed to cover eight consecutive games (but lost only one of them). However, I took them last Saturday in what was the biggest game of the year, a revenge spot at St. Mary's. They won there, 78-65, then followed that up w/ a 30-pt win Thursday vs. Loyola Marymount. I'm looking for them to make it B2B 30-pt wins now as Pepperdine is just terrible. Lay the points. 

Obviously, Gonzaga and St. Mary's are the class of the WCC. BYU has been a solid addition to the conference as well. After that, well, Gonzaga really doesn't lose to anybody else. Pepperdine is in last place in the WCC w/ a 1-14 SU record. The Waves come in at just 4-23 SU overall. The first time these teams met this year saw Gonzaga win by 30 on the road and they were "only" 24-pt favorites in that one. Using that as our baseline, this spread should pretty clearly be north of 30 pts. Over the previous 44 meetings, Gonzaga is 40-4 SU vs. Pepperdine, also going 30-12-2 ATS. That includes a 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS record at home. Each of the last three meetings have been decided by at least 30 points. 

Making matters more challenging for Pepperdine is that they are playing for a lame-duck head coach. It's already been announced Marty Wilson will not return next season, so I don't exactly see a lot of effort forthcoming. Yes, the team did play inspired at home against BYU on Thursday. Their last three losses have all been by six points or less. But once the inspiration runs out, there's little left here. The Waves' lone WCC win came by a single point. They shot a respectable 44.8% the first time against Gonzaga and still lost by 30. Gonzaga has held its last five opponents to 58.2 points per game on 37.5% shooting. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead on Loyola Marymount Thursday w/ all five starters scoring before any LMU player scored. This is a complete mismatch in every sense of the word. 8* Gonzaga 

10* Over Canadiens/Golden Knights (7:05 ET): What's going on in Vegas has certainly been the story of this NHL season as the expansion Golden Knights continye to lead the Pacific Division (80 pts) and would be the top seed in the Western Conference were the playoffs to begin today. They say "what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas," but in the case of the hockey team, they've traveled relatively well this season, even though the road record (17-11-2) is nowhere near as good as their home record (21-4-2). Tonight, the Knights are again on home ice where they've scored nine goals the last two games in beating Edmonton and Chicago. There's no reason to believe they won't win again here, but the asking price (money line) is astronomical, so I'll be staying away from that.

Montreal was a division winner itself last season, taking the Atlantic w/ 103 points. But they were ousted in the 1st rd of the playoffs (six games) by the Rangers and there has been a carryover to this year as the Habs have been one of the league's biggest disappointments. They currently are in sixth in the Atlantic and well off the playoff pace. A big reason for the dropoff has been the decline of Carey Price, who carried the club last season from between the pipes. We've seen this before w/ Price and the Canadiens. In 2014-15, he won the Vezina, leading to a division title. The following season he suffered a knee injury and played in only 12 games. The result was a 28-point decline and the team missing the playoffs. With Price healthy, the Habs predictably bounce back and won the division again last season. But now the regression bug has bit them yet again. 

Unlike the injury plagued season of two years ago, this season Price simply hasn't been very good. His overall save percentage is barely above .900 and in his last start, he allowed five goals on just 21 shots - to the Coyotes! It was Price's eighth consecutive loss on the road. Now we do have to be concerned w/ a Montreal offense which ranks 29th in goals per game and has scored 1 or 0 goals in 8 of the last 11 games. But Vegas can clearly do the heavy lifting here as they average 3.6 goals per game at home. They are 2nd overall in goals per game and the Over is 8-2 at home this season when the total is 5.5. 10* Over Canadiens/Golden Knights

8* Hofstra (4:00 ET): We head down to the Colonial here, a conference which has lost much of its luster since the halcyon days of George Mason and VCU (both of whom bolted for the greener pastures of the Atlantic 10). Right now, it looks to be a two-team race between Charleston and Northeastern for the regular season crown, but don't count out a Hofstra squad that is lurking in the shadows and only a few games back. The Pride pulled into a third place tie w/ William & Mary by virtue of beating the Tribe on Thursday and scored 90 pts in the process. While they "only" won by six (were -4.5), Hofstra led by as many as 17 in the 1st half. It was the 2nd time in February that Hofstra scored at least 90 pts in a game. Lay the points.

Hofstra has shown they can beat teams in a variety of ways as not only have they twice scored 90 this month, but there's also been two recent wins where they held the opposition under 60 points. Given Drexel's defensive liabilities, I figure the Hofstra offense will again carry the load here. The Pride have a variety of scoring options as leading scorer Justin Wright-Foreman (24.3 PPG) owns the nation's fourth longest streak of finishing w/ 10 or more points (49 straight games), but he was one of only three players to finish in double figures vs. W&M. Rokas Gustys going for 22 points and 21 rebounds, his 12th double double of the season and 46th of his career, I haven't even mentioned Eli Pemberton yet. He went for 17 pts against W&M and averages 16.1 per game, second most on the team.

The recent schedule has been unkind to Drexel as the Dragons have had to play at both Northeastern and Charleston in the last seven days. This game makes it three straight on the road against the top teams in the CAA. I mentioned earlier that Drexel is not very good defensively. They allow 78.9 PPG for the year and in conference play that number has jumped to an unsightly 83.3 PPG. Not good news considering Hofstra averages 85.0 PPG at home. The Dragons even shot the ball well Thursday against Northeastern (52.9%) and still lost. Not a good sign here. They lost the first meeting (at home) to Hofstra as 2.5-pt home dogs, giving up 91 pts in the process. Not only is this their third road game in a week, but the game prior to that was an OT affair. Look for the tired Dragons to get blown out. 8* Hofstra

8* Florida Atlantic (2:00 ET): With Lane Kiffin on board, FAU is most definitely a "football school" for the forseeable future, but the Owls' hoops team has a big game today against rival FIU. These teams opened the Sun Belt campaign against one another (back on 12.30) and it was Florida International emerging victorious, by a single point, 58-57. But FAU escaped w/ the cover as 1.5-pt dogs. There were more lead changes than one could count over the course of the game and it easily could have gone either way. Interestingly, at the time, FAU had lost three in a row and would go on to lose six straight. They come into today's game on a four-game losing streak. But I still like them to exact revenge as a short home favorite. 

Interesting to note that these two rivals have played the same eight opponents over their last eight respective games. FAU has gone 2-6 SU and ATS while FIU is 3-5 SU, but 6-1-1 ATS. That would seem to favor taking the Panthers, who are also already 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 22-9 ATS their L31 road games. They've had a full week to prepare here, but this will also be their third consecutive road game after losing at both Marshall and Western Kentucky last week. Note though that WKU was w/o its star center Dwight Coleby most of the way, which was not the case when the Hilltoppers downed FAU earlier in the week. FIU has only two "true" road wins in nine tries this year. A big reason for the positive ATS record is they are almost always getting more than 4.5 points.

Neither of the teams shoot the ball particularly well, but at least the Owls jump up over 45% from the field here in Boca Raton. As a result, their scoring average increases to a reasonable 73.8 PPG, up from 65.0 PPG on the road. They shot only 34% against Marshall last Saturday, yet still were tied 55-55 midway through the second half. Like FIU, the Owls have had a full week to prepare here. I simply happen to believe FAU is the better team here, before even factoring in the home court edge, and that makes them a bit of a bargain at the current price. 8* Florida Atlantic

8* Los Angeles (1:05 ET): The Kings HAVE to have this one as they've not only lost three in a row (all on the road), but the losing streak now has them on the "outside looking in" when it comes to playoff picture in the Western Conference. They are currently fifth in the Pacific Division despite having a YTD goal differential (+20) better than every team besides 1st place Vegas. To me, this is a playoff team, but they're three points back of where they need to be. The current road trip (seven games) won't get any easier after this as they travel to Chicago (struggling I know, but always a tough place to play) and Winnipeg. So a visit to last place Buffalo becomes the very definition of a "must-win" to me. I think they get it done. 

The Sabres had actually won three of four prior to losing in overtime to Ottawa Thursday night. Twice the Sabres had a one-goal lead in the third period and both times (obviously) they gave it away. Perhaps the Senators' comeback was inevitable considering they outshot the Sabres 22-12 in the first two periods and 36-22 for the game. It should be noted that Buffalo did recently beat both Tampa Bay and Boston, who are arguably the two top teams in the league right now. But that success simply isn't likely to last. They did win their final three games before the All-Star Break, but other than that you'd have to go all the way back to October to find the only other time all season that they even won three times in a six-game stretch. 

What makes this such an ideal matchup for the Kings is that Buffalo ranks dead last in the league in goals per game. Now having the fewest number of points and worst goal differential in the Eastern Conference makes them an ideal opponent for pretty much anyone. But especially for the Kings, who rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed. They are also 5th best in penalty killing. I suspect that following an admittedly "rough patch," goalie Jonathan Quick is going to turn things around. Also, Ottawa may have dealt Buffalo another blow in addition to the result Thursday night. The Senators and Kings made a trade at the deadline w/ defenseman Dion Phaneuf coming to the City of Angels. Phaneuf's impact was immediately felt vs. Pittsburgh (scored team's lone goal) and that should carry over to today. 8* Los Angeles

10* Miami FL (12:00 ET): Other than the B2B losses, I have no idea why the Hurricanes would be getting "little more" than the token number for homecourt advantage in this ACC matchup. They are clearly superior to Syracuse in my eyes as right now they "should" be a top six or seven seed in the NCAA Tournament while the Orange are on the fringes of the cut. Syracuse is off a loss as well, 74-70 to NC State, as six-point favorites in the Carrier Dome. As much as they "need" this game, it's not as if Miami couldn't stand to build its resume as well. Playing in Coral Gables and coming off B2B defeats will have the Hurricanes quite motivated Saturday afternoon and I'll lay the short number here as I worry about Syracuse offensively.

Miami lost last Saturday to Boston College, by two points, on the road. That's certainly not a "good" loss, but take note they did lead by seven late in the 2H before missing their final nine shots. They also played the game w/o HC Jim Larranaga (sick), which I'm sure had an effect on their late-game execution. The poor shooting then carried over into Tuesday's home date w/ Virginia as they never led and made only 38.3% of their field goals in a 59-50 loss. But given the opponent, that isn't a total shock. Here, they face a Syracuse that is also in the top 13 in defensive efficiency (Virginia #1), but note the 'Canes aren't chopped liver on that end of the floor either as they rank 20th in defensive efficiency (per KenPom). They held Virginia to 59 pts and are 8-2 SU this season after allowing 60 pts or less their previous game. They are also a perfect 4-0 SU after scoring 60 or less.

Syracuse is notorious for not playing any "true" road games in the non-conference under Jim Boeheim. (They did travel to face old Big East foe Georgetown this year). They've gone just 2-4 SU on the ACC road so far this season and while all of those games have been close, recent performances suggest they simply aren't going to be able to stay within the number here. For starters, they lost at home to Virginia by 15 pts. Also, last time out (vs. NC State) was just the third all season that they shot better than 50 percent from the floor, and they still lost. Miami allows just 63.4 PPG at home where they've lost only twice and that was to two top five teams (Duke, Virginia). 10* Miami FL 

10* Georgia State (9:00 ET): Tonight, it's the "Battle of Georgia" down in the "Fun Belt" where everyone is chasing 1st place Louisiana. The only team within realistic striking distance of the Ragin Cajuns would be Georgia State, who is 10-3 SU in league play (and two games back). Everyone else has seven or fewer wins w/ Georgia Southern being one of the many in a logjam of 7-6 and 7-7 squads. The Eagles host tonight, looking to avenge a 17-pt loss to the Panthers that they suffered last month. For that initial meeting, Georgia State was a 6.5-pt favorite and used a big 2nd half run for the win and cover. They shot better than 50% in Atlanta while Ga Southern shot only 33.8%. Will it be that easy in the second go-around? Probably not. But Georgia State is the better team and I'm taking them. 

Now perhaps Georgia State got caught "looking ahead" to this rivalry game as last Saturday saw them get upset (as 13.5-pt chalk) by Louisiana Monroe, 90-82. Or perhaps it was a letdown considering the Panthers were less than 48 hours removed from handing Louisiana its first and only conference loss of the season. Incredibly, the Panthers scored 106 (in regulation!) in the upset of the Rajun Cajuns. Not a ton of defense is played in the Sun Belt, but note it was an OVERTIME loss to La Monroe on Saturday. It was certainly a disappointing loss for Georgia State's perspective as not only did it snap a 10-game win streak, but they had battled back from a 16-pt second half deficit as well. While defense is sometimes optional in this conference, note Georgia State is pretty good at it (putting aside the L2 games), even on the road. They are giving up only 63.5 PPG away from home, which has translated into a 10-3 ATS record.

Georgia Southern comes in off three consecutive losses, so they're not in good form right now. Their latest loss came Saturday as they were in the unfortunate spot of having to face Louisiana right after Georgia State beat them. Still, giving up 100+ pts on your home floor is not a "good look." Overall, the Eagles have now dropped five of seven, beginning w/ the loss to Georgia State. Though they are 0-5 SU and ATS their last five visits into Statesboro, I like GSU to get the job done tonight. They simply can't afford another loss if they want to keep pace w/ Louisiana. Every other Sun Belt squad, Georgia Southern included, just needs to be thinking about the conference tournament at this point. 10* Georgia State

8* Carolina (7:35 ET): I'll continue to ride this "Carolina train" as there's that one key metric which indicates this team is more than capable of making a strong second half run. The metric I speak of is shot differential as the 'Canes are tops in the league in this department at +5.1 per game. No other team is higher than +3.3 and only nine others are above +2. Why I believe this metric to be key is pretty simple. When you're consistently outshooting your opponent, theoretically, you should be outscoring them as well. That scenario certainly didn't play out last night in a 5-2 loss to the Devils, whom they outshot 29-22. But the three previous games (all wins), it did and those were all home games. Carolina is back on home ice tonight and I'll take them.

Speaking of statistics, the team that the Hurricanes will face tonight has one of the more interesting "splits" in the entire league. No one denies the Islanders' ability to score goals as they average 3.3 per game (4th most), but they are also dead last in the league in goals allowed at 3.6 per game. Giving up the most goals in the league isn't exactly conducive to making the postseason. I feel like I've "beaten a dead horse" when it comes to how tight a race it is in the Metropolitan Division right now. Five of the eight times will likely make the playoffs, but beyond Washington and Pittsburgh, it's anyone's guess as to who the other three will be. When you start breaking down individual teams' resumes, it becomes apparent that there's a case to be made for upward trajectory for the Canes, while the opposite is true for the Isles. 

I was on Carolina last Friday and Saturday as they beat Colorado and Vancouver here at home. They added another win Tuesday, blowing out the Kings 7-3. Last night, goaltending was the issue w/ Scott Darling allowing five goals on just 22 shots. Thankfully, it will be Cam Ward between the pipes tonight. Ward has been the much better of the two Carolina goalies this season and has a .922 save percentage his L4 starts. I should probably mention that the Islanders also played last night and it was a RARE shutout victory for them, 3-0 over the Rangers. It was their 1st shutout win of the season! However, that shutout came in spite of FIFTY shots allowed! What could Jaroslav Halak possibly have left in the tank should he go again tonight? Backup Thomas Greiss has an .885 save percentage for the year. Prior to winning last night, the Isles had lost six of eight. 8* Carolina

8* Under Lakers/T'wolves (9:05 ET): A high total was to be expected here considering Minnesota has gone Over in five straight while the Lakers have been gashed for 130+ pts in each of the last two games (obviously both Overs as well). But we've now reached a point where I believe there's value to be had on the Under in this final game before the All-Star Break. Yes, Minnesota's offensive/defensive splits have led them to going Over more than Under this season. But before the current streak began, that record was essentially dead even. Their games, while typically high scoring, average "only" 216.3 total points per game. Same for the Lakers, whose total PPG average is 217.3. Take the Under. 

Defensively, the Lakers were a disaster last season (worst efficiency in the league). At times, that's reared its ugly head again this year, particularly in the losses. However, generally speaking, Luke Walton has them playing better at that end of the floor this year. They rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency even after what's happened the last two games. Both New Orleans and Dallas shot better than 53% from the floor and combined to make 26 three-pointers. But that came on the heels of two stellar defensive efforts, one against Phoenix and the other against OKC. In those games, the Lakers allowed FG%'s below 39.0 and neither opponent shot well from three-point range. One good thing here is Minnesota is second to last in the league in three-pointers made on a per gaem basis w/ 7.9. The Lakers aren't world-beaters in that department either, ranking 23rd. 

Incredibly, the Over has gone 23-5 in the T'wolves last 28 February games. They are coming off a matchup w/ the Rockets (lost 126-108), so no surprise that was a high-scoring game. Giving up 42 fourth quarter points is what killed the T'wolves there. But that won't be an issue here. The last five games have also seen Minnesota average over 117 PPG. They average 109.6 PPG for the year. They've also given up an average of 118.6, which is well above their season average and especially what they give up per game at home (104.2). Despite recent form, I look for this game to be lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Lakers/T'wolves

10* Arizona (9:00 ET): I'd like to think that I was pretty early on the "sell Arizona State train." Numerous metrics suggested that regression was on the horizon for the Sun Devils when they started the year 12-0 straight up (10-1-1 ATS). Sure enough, that regression has taken hold as they team has gone just 7-6 SU since, all of those conference games. But the Pac 12 isn't a particularly deep league this season, which has allowed ASU to stay in the thick of things. As of today, they are still considered a NCAA Tournament team, but that's "faint praise" for a squad that once found itself listed as a potential top seed (ridiculous!). Tonight brings a matchup w/ the best team in the conference, Arizona, and that means another loss for the Sun Devils. 

These rivals have met once before this season, the conference opener in fact, and Arizona won 84-78 (-6) handing ASU its very first loss of the season. The Sun Devils come into the rematch on a three-game win streak, the last two coming here in Tempe. But last week was the first time the Sun Devils swept their schedule since conference play began and they hadn't even won B2B Pac 12 games before the current streak began. They have lost five in a row to Arizona, going 0-4-1 ATS as well. Ranking 14th nationally in offensive efficiency is nice, but it largely won't matter when paired w/ a #97 ranking on the other end of the floor. Arizona State shot only 37.9% from the floor in the first meeting, thanks in large part to Deandre Ayton, who is in the running to be the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft in June. 

Arizona had dropped B2B games (Washington, UCLA) before beating USC at home on Saturday. They opened conference play at 9-1 SU, so I'll chalk the losses up to a little "mid-season blues." The Wildcats shot 56.1% against USC as they too can light it up (rank 8th in offensive efficiency). Truth be told, I'm not going to be a big believer in either of the teams come March, but as far as the Pac 12 is considered, Arizona is still king, Something else to consider is that they have been a favorite in every game this year dating back to December 5th's victory vs. Texas A&M. So this is a really good price as well. Arizona State is 4-15 ATS off its previous 19 conference wins. 10* Arizona

8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): The 8th ranked Buckeyes (#9 in Coaches Poll) have definitely made the Big 10 more than just a two-team race between Purdue and Michigan State. In fact, they come into tonight leading the conference at 13-1 SU! That one loss is what they'll be looking to avenge this evening as they visit Penn State. The loss occurred in Columbus, ironically enough, 82-79 back on January 25th. OSU was 10-pt favorites for that game, so there's definitely been an adjustment by the linesmakers. But should there be? That game was decided at the buzzer and saw Penn State shoot preposterously well for the game. We're talking 58.3 percent overall from the field, including 11 of 14 from three-point range. That won't be happening again.

Going back to the win over Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have now won five of six w/ the lone loss coming at Michigan State. Still though, they are NOT considered a NCAA Tournament team as the win over the Buckeyes should be considered a "season highlight." They're only 3-5 SU in Big 10 play otherwise including losses to Minnesota and Northwestern. Recent wins have largely come at the expense of the bottom of the league, most recently a 74-52 win over a terrible Illinois team on Sunday. They outscored the Illini 37-16 in the 2nd half on another hot shooting night (54.5 FG%).

Not sure homecourt advantage can save the Nittany Lions here as Ohio State has won all five "true" road games this season, doing so by an impressive average of 13.0 PPG. They even won at Purdue in a very impressive comeback. They're 5-0 ATS in those games as well. Revenge can be often overrated, but not here when you're talking about avenging your lone conference defeat. The Buckeyes rank 12th in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and are clearly a "legit" squad. I was certainly not in universal agreement w/ the committee's top 16 teams (revealed Sunday), but Ohio State was an obvious inclusion that everyone would have to agree with. Kam Williams will also be back in the lineup here after being suspended the L3 games. Not that the team needed him in those three games as they won all of them. 8* Ohio State

10* Over Red Wings/Lightning (7:35 ET): The asking price is borderline astronomical here, as it should be, considering the league-best Lightning are returning home off rare B2B losses (both on the road). But I won't be laying the juice even though I have little to no belief in the visiting Red Wings, who have lost 10 straight regular season meetings to Tampa Bay (and 14 of the past 15 overall, including one playoff series, in 2016). Instead, I believe the better bet to be to follow another streak, that being one that has seen the Lightning go Over the total in seven consecutive games (all w/ at least six total goals scored). TB not only leads the league in goal scoring, they have five individual players w/ at least 19 goals. Take the Over.

Goal scoring wasn't the problem on the just completed 0-2 road trip. Rather, TB gave up nine goals themselves. Now, a 4-3 loss to Toronto was certainly excusable, given the Maple Leafs are a good team. But losing the next night in Buffalo was far less "forgivable," even if they were w/o rest. The Sabres rank 30th in the league in goals per game yet hit up the Lightning for five, matching their season-high. That wasn't the first time the Lightning surrendered that many goals to a "bad team" this month either. Earlier, they'd allowed six in a loss to Edmonton. Should we be concerned about goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, whose save percentage in his L4 starts is .896 (Over is 4-0). For the season, the Over is 15-7 when Vasilevskiy starts at home. 

One thing we need not be concerned over is the Lightning offense, which not only leads the league in scoring, but also averages 3.8 goals per game on home ice. Detroit's last two road games have seen them surrendered a total of 11 goals (that number sound familiar?) and Tuesday's 2-1 win over Anaheim (at home) marked the first time in the L5 games that they allowed fewer than three. Likely to start between the pipes here is Jimmy Howard and his save percentage his L4 starts is .890. The Over is 3-1 for the Red Wings this season, in road games, if the total is 6.0. At home for the Lightning, the Over is 8-5 w/ a total of 6.0. So no need to worry about the high O/U line tonight. Something else to consider is that Tampa Bay has allowed 10 PP goals in its last 10 games. 10* Over Red Wings/Lightning

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Things were looking quite shaky for the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champion Penguins. Coming into the New Year, they'd lost more games than they'd won (19-18-3). But over the last month, they've certainly turned things around, going 13-4-1 the L18 games. They're now in second place in the crowded Metro w/ 68 pts and look like a safe playoff bet. The offense has certainly regained its "lost" form, scoring 4+ goals in six of the last eight games (all wins). But even w/ the recent surge, the Pens can't afford to let their guard down. Not w/ the other six teams (save for 1st place Washington) in the division currently within nine points of them. Fortunate for them is tonight they'll be facing a team that just gave up seven goals in its previous game. 

Out West, the Kings are similarly fighting for their playoff lives. The difference between them and the Pens is that LA finds itself currently on the "outside logging in." Considering the logjam that exists for the two Wild Card spots, finishing in the top three in the Pacific would certainly be in the Kings' best interest. Right now, they are one point behind Calgary for that coveted third place position. So this game definitely means a lot to them as well. Only problem is they arrive in the Steel City in poor form. I alluded to them giving up seven goals in the previous game; that was against a Carolina team hardly known for goal scoring. Even worse is that it was Jonathan Quick starting in goal for them that game. (He was chased after allowing four goals on 20 shots). Quick's save percentage his L4 starts is now .894, a troubling sign considering the team just allowed 41 shots to the Hurricanes. 

While this is an interesting battle of the league's top power play against one of the top penalty killing units, home ice provides a distinct advantage here for the Penguins. They have won nine in a row here at PPG Paints Arena, outscoring the opposition 47-25. That's an average of more than five goals per game! The Kings have allowed 11 goals the L2 games and this is their 4th straight on the road of what will be a seven-game trip. They are only 7-17 SU when facing teams w/ a winning record this year and that includes a 3-1 loss (at home) to Pittsburgh last month. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Boise State (11:00 ET): I'll use a seemingly unrelated result to open the discussion of this Wednesday night Mountain West matchup and that's UNC Greensboro's 74-56 win over East Tennessee State on Monday. That matchup saw a conference (Southern) favorite actually come in as a slight dog despite an unbeaten SoCon record (not to mention the nation's longest active win streak). Well, it's something similar here as Nevada (10-2 in Mt West play) is an underdog for the first time all year to a conference opponent, that being Boise State. While not unbeaten in conference play like ETSU was, the Wolfpack are the perceived "best team by a mile" here in the MWC. But the oddsmakers obviously think otherwise. 

In fact, despite perception, at the end of the day today Boise State may very well find itself in first place in the MWC. They are a half game back w/ a 10-3 SU conference record (compared to Nevada's 10-2). Boise State is 20-5 SU overall. Nevada is 21-5 SU overall. This is a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost by six down in Reno last month. That game saw them go a miserable 3 for 21 from the three-point line. Perhaps they got caught looking ahead to this game b/c on Saturday they lost at Utah State, 71-65 as three-point chalk. They were outscored 44-31 in the second half. Pretty incredible is the fact that 9 out of Boise State's last 10 games were decided by six points or fewer.

The big key here though is where this game is being played. Boise State is 13-0 SU at home this season and averaging 85.5 PPG here. Their average margin of victory is 19 PPG. They've never been a home dog all year and even w/ all the close games, they've yet to drop B2B games at any point this season. Being at home and off a loss, facing the top team in the conference, I expect the Broncos to come up huge here. 10* Boise State

10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): You won't find the Canucks favored on the money line all that often, especially w/ the backing of what appears to be "sharp money." But such is the case Wednesday as they welcome Florida to B.C.. I do believe that this is the longest road trip in the league - for any team - though I suppose the Panthers have the "benefit" of having played in Edmonton Monday night. They won there 7-5, their fifth win in the past six games. However, as you can tell from the score, it was a wild one. The Panthers scored three times on the power play, odd seeing as that group is ranked #22 in the league, and goalie James Reimer wasn't exactly "lights out" in his return from injury. This has been a below average team for much of the season, so I expect them to start regressing soon. As in tonight. 

Vancouver is also off a high-scoring victory. The difference here through is they didn't give up any goals Sunday in an impressive 6-0 shutout at Dallas. The fact they did that on the road makes the win all the more impressive. Now those six goals are equal to the number they'd scored during the entirety of a four-game losing streak that preceded the win. They too have been below average much of the year, but I suspect Sunday's win is going to give the team some confidence moving forward. The call-up of Reid Boucher is something to monitor as he scored twice against Dallas. When playing w/ exactly two days of rest this season, Vancouver is 6-3 SU.

Now these two teams did just meet last week in Miami and it was the Panthers prevailing 3-1. They did so w/ a 40-27 edge in shots, but it was rookie Harri Sateri in goal that night and he's since been displaced by Reimer and the soon to be returning Roberto Luongo. A problem Florida has dealt w/ all season is that they simply give up too many shots on goal. Only the Islanders allow more per game. That will catch up w/ you. Lately, they've kept the number down, but be wary of that 7-5 win they are coming off of as this season has seen them go just 3-9 SU if they won their previous game by two or more goals. 10* Vancouver

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Magic were certainly kind to me last week as they hosted (what was at the time) a decaying Cleveland team and took the game outright by 18 points (were 7-pt home dogs). Given the respect LeBron carries in the marketplace, it sure seems odd to see Charlotte near the same price range as they enter Orlando tonight. This Magic team, while still a work in progress, has covered 12 of its past 15 games, showing it is undervalued. The Hornets on the other hand, have failed to cover five straight, the last four of those coming as underdogs. So, again, they sure make for a curious road favorite. They're a team I've tried to stump for in the past, but no more and definitely not here as they are 8-18 SU/8-15-3 ATS on the road this season. Take the points. 

Charlotte's biggest problem has been an inability to win close games. This isn't the first time I've talked about this and the issue dates back to last season. They're now 0-14 SU since the start of last season in games decided by three points or less. This hardly makes them an ideal candidate for the role of road favorite. Even the confines of their own homecourt couldn't help them on Sunday as they were blown out by Toronto, 123-103. It is not w/o precedent that the Hornets would be favored on the road. Just 10 days ago, they started a four-game West Coast swing w/ a stop in Phoenix and they were asked to lay 6.5. They won 115-110. Another issue here is their defense, or rather lack of it. They've allowed 113.8 PPG during the ATS losing skid while opponents have shot 52.8%. 

Charlotte has had Orlando's number in the past, beating their division rival nine straight times (8-1 ATS), including a pair of wins early this season. But the Magic have been competitive of late, going 6-7 SU the L13 games and only one of those seven losses has been by double digits. They fought their way back from an 18-pt deficit to almost beat Chicago (lost by four) on Monday. I've been impressed by the improved efforts on the defensive end and right now they're simply playing better than Charlotte. To me, this is a pick 'em type game, so taking the points is a "no brainer." 8* Orlando

8* Davidson (7:00 ET): The A-10 "ain't what it used to be" w/ everyone chasing Rhode Island (who is unbeaten in conference play) and likely needing to win the Conference Tourney just to get into the Big Dance. Here's two teams that have made "NCAA Tourney noise" in the past, albeit some of it when hailing from another league. But this year, both VCU and Davidson are simply fighting to stay relevant. Davidson has a game in hand and can move into a second place tie (w/ St Bonaventure) w/ a win here tonight. They just lost at Rhode Island on Friday, 72-59, but at least had an additional day to prepare here, plus VCU had to go into overtime Saturday to beat Dayton. I'll lay the points. 

Prior to losing to URI on Friday, Davidson had been gaining steam. They'd won three straight games - all by double digits - and two of those wins came by 29 points! Unfortunately, that made them a bit overvalued (even as a road dog) against the Rams. After making 20 three-pointers last Tuesday vs. St. Joe's, the Wildcats were held to just 4 of 17 from behind the arc by the Rams. In retrospect, the closing line for the game seems a bit ridiculous given the gap between Rhode Island and the rest of the A-10. But it also speaks volumes that they come into this game laying points. I expect the offense to bounce back after Friday's terrible performance.

VCU needed a career-high 37 points from Justin Tillman, as well as an extra five minutes of action to get by Dayton on Saturday. That was a home game and they did shoot 53.7% from the floor. I don't expect them to shoot that well as a team here, nor do I expect Tillman (19.2 PPG average) to come anywhere close to that career-high performance. VCU has not fared well as the underdog this year, going 2-7 straight up and 3-6 against the spread in this role. They are giving up an average of 76.6 PPG in conference play. Compare that to Davidson, who is allowing only 60.8 PPG in conference play. 8* Davidson

8* Miami FL (9:00 ET): With Virginia off a loss, it's 1st in ACC play all season, conventional wisdom will have the Hoos bouncing back. After all, they are still ranked #1 in all of the land. But laying points on the road isn't always the best situation for a "bounce back." Miami is 9-1 SU here in Coral Gables, the only loss coming to Duke. Plus, the 'Canes are off a close loss themselves. So they won't be lacking for motivation either. Then there's the fact that the "The U' hasn't lost by more than two points in regulation in almost a month. Take the points here as Virginia should certainly be on "upset alert."

Virginia's loss to Virginia Tech was an overtime affair, a 61-60 final where they were playing from behind most of the way and shot only 34.4% overall. Obviously, there's nothing wrong with a defense that allows only 61 pts in an overtime game. Sure enough, the Cavaliers have the second best defensive efficiency rating by any team over the last 10 years. So this is a team that should certainly be taken very seriously. They'd won 15 in a row before Saturday. There's two interesting things about their ascension to #1. One, obviously, is that they did so despite losing. Well, that's because each of the top three teams in America lost last week. The second is that this is the first time since 1982 (the Ralph Sampson days!) that a Virginia team has been ranked #1 in the country. Remember - they came into this season UNRANKED. I'm intrigued as to how they'll handle the target being on their back.

Miami allowed the last nine points of the game Saturday at BC to lose 72-70 as 1.5-pt favorites. As if they needed any extra motivation (they don't!), what better than getting to host the #1 team in the country on national television? The Hurricanes are 9-1 SU at home, winning by an average of 15.2 PPG. Visitors shoot less than 40 percent here. That will come in handy against a defensive-minded team like Virginia. With point potentially at a premium, taking the points seems like a natural move. Note Miami won in Charlottesville LY (were +7.5), 54-48. This will be the most points that "The U" have gotten in any game all season. 8* Miami FL

10* Under Rockets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Certainly the potential for a high-scoring affair is there w/ the second and third most efficient offenses in the game matching up. But oddsmakers are keen to this as well and have opened the O/U line very high for this matchup. The average Houston game nor the average Minnesota game averages the number of points per game in question here. Furthemore, a meeting between these two teams last month (won by the Rockets, in Houston) saw "only" 214 total pts scored (116-98 final score). I don't see an Over here either in what should be a "playoff-like atmosphere." Take the Under. 

Houston has won eight in a row and now trails Golden State by just one game in the race for the top spot in the Western Conference. They have both a slightly better YTD point differential and offensive efficiency rating than the Warriors, both the best such marks in the league. They are also a surprising 8th in defensive efficiency. Clearly, they have emerged as the top threat to the Dubs. They lead the league in number of three-pointers made per game, but were a surprising 13 of 45 in the win over Dallas on Sunday. That game, a 104-97 final, saw their defense lead the way by holding the Mavericks to 40.9% shooting. The Rockets haven't let a single opponent shoot 50% in a game this month.

Minnnesota will likely head into the All-Star Break as a top four team in the Western Conference. They are currently fourth, but only one-half game behind San Antonio. The upside here looks tremendous w/ the offense ranking third in efficiency despite ranking near the bottom of the league in three-pointers made. Defensively, there is some work that needs to be done. The T'wolves' last four games have all gone Over, but before that it was four straight Unders. Before that was another four-game Over streak. So if the pattern holds, an Under will be in store tonight. It's not just that, however. Defensively, the team allows only 103.5 PPG at home, which is alot more respective than what we've seen recently as they've allowed an average of 111.2 points the last four games. But that number is heavily skewed by the overtime game against Cleveland, which was a 140-138 loss. 10* Under Rockets/T'wolves

8* Over Hawks/Bucks (8:05 ET): "At long last," we finally saw Milwaukee's long Under streak come to an end Saturday (at nine games) when they downed Orlando 111-105. I had the Over there and as I said in my analysis, the defensive improvement we've seen from the Bucks post-Jason Kidd firing was bound not to last. Before the win over Orlando, the team had held seven of its previous eight opponents under 100 pts, which is extremely rare in this league. Over the past five games, their opponents have shot just 40.8% from the field and averaged 93.6 points per game. Orlando, who is not a good team, was above those numbers on Saturday, so there's no reason the Hawks can't do the same. Take the Over.

Atlanta is actually off a win here as they beat Detroit 118-115 on Sunday, at home. Going 32 of 37 from the free throw line certainly helped. However, that was also the fifth time in the last seven games that the Hawks scored at least 107 pts. This is not a good road team (5-22 straight up!), but that has a lot to do w/ the defense. For the year, they give up 109.3 PPG away from home, which actually isn't that much higher than what they give up overall (108.1 PPG). They rank 26th in defensive efficiency. Four times in those last seven games, they've allowed 115 or more points. They've given up 123 and 115 in the last two, respectively.

These teams have not met since the end of October. It was in Atlanta and Milwaukee won 117-106 . They shredded the Hawks' defense to the tune of 54.5% shooting, including 13 of 26 from three-point range. One thing you usually can count on is the Bucks' offense as they are shooting 47.8 percent overall, including 48.6 percent here at home. Their own scoring has been down recently, coinciding w/ the defensive surge. Again, just like defensive regression, I expect the offensive numbers to start going up. Jabari Parker is expected back in the lineup tonight after sitting out Saturday. He's played four games since returning from an ACL injury and averaged a solid 9.3 points per game. Note Atlanta is 10-5 this season after allowing 115+ points and 4-2 Over after scoring 115+ points. 8* Over Hawks/Bucks

10* Over Capitals/Jets (8:05 ET): Here's a battle of two of the top teams in the league. Washington leads the Metro w/ 70 points, ironic b/c tonight's opponent Winnipeg is a second place team (in the Central) despite 73 points! This game being in Manitoba is a big edge for the Jets considering a 20-5-2 mark here at Bell MTS Place. However, two of those losses have come in the last week. One was to St. Louis on Friday, then they lost to the Rangers on Sunday. They allowed eight goals in the two losses. This season-long 10-game homestand is quickly winding down and so far they're surprisingly only 3-3. So I'm not about to endorse them here in this spot. What I will endorse, however, is the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Washington is also off a loss here as they fell 5-4, in overtime, to Detroit. They've lost three of five. So neither club is exactly in "fine form" coming into tonight. But what we do have here is a matchup of two of the top eight teams in goals per game. The Caps average 3.1 gpg while the Jets average 3.2. Washington has actually scoring plenty of late, despite getting off fewer shots per game. Their last five contests have seen them average only 25 shots per game, but also 3.6 goals. Now imagine if they start getting more chances! Prior to losing to the Red Wings, they beat Columbus 4-2 despite only 17 shots on goal. At the same time though, they've allowed a total of 20 goals the L5 games. Goalie Braden Holtby has struggled on the road all season long w/ an .894 save percentage. 

I had the Under (a 10* winner!) in Winnipeg's last game, that being the 3-1 loss to the Rangers. However, the fact remains this team averages 3.7 goals per game at home, tied for the second highest average in the league. They've exceeded that average only once on this current homestand. So, it's only a matter of time before we start to see them find the back of the net w/ great regularity again. As for Washington, they are 14-6 Over in road games when the total is 5.5. They are also 19-9 Over when facing a team w/ a winning record. 10* Over Capitals/Jets

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Stop me when you've heard me say this before - the Metro is the deeper of the two divisions in the Eastern Conference and will send five teams to the playoffs. We just don't know which five. Right now, both Washington and Pittsburgh look like solid bets. But that still leaves six teams and just three spots. Philadelphia is emerging as a possible third "lock," thanks to a four-game win streak that has them w/ 65 points. Behind the Flyers, the other five teams are separated by just three points. New Jersey has fallen "back to the pack" by virtue of a four-game losing streak. So we have two teams trending in very different directions tonight. I'll stick w/ the hot one that's on home ice.

Before the current respective streaks began, the Devils beat the Flyers, 4-3, back on Feb 1st. But that was in New Jersey and they were obviously playing much better at the time. The Devils would win their next game as well, 3-1 over Pittsburgh, again at home. But ever since, they've gone into freefall mode, dropping four in a row and giving up 19 goals in the process. That's their most goals allowed during any four game stretch of the season. This is no coincidence as Corey Schneider is out w/ a groin injury. Keith Kinkaid has since spent the majority of time between the pipes and has a poor .874 save percentage his L4 starts. The last time he was in goal, he faced 50 shots in a 6-1 loss at Columbus. While you'd like to think Kinkaid will improve, the truth is his save percentage for the year is only .891 (20 starts). Eddie Lack was no better on Sunday in his 1st start w/ the team, allowing five goals on 27 shots in a home loss to the Bruins.

Meanwhile, the Flyers are off a very impressive win as they went to Vegas and came out ahead 4-1. That was only the fourth regulation loss at home for the Golden Knights this season. Going back to December 4th, Philly is now 20-8-2 its L30 games. Interesting is that they too are dealing w/ an injury in goal as Brian Elliott has been out w/ a lower body injury. But the difference between them and the Devils is that backup Michael Neuvirth has been able to come in and get the job done. He stopped 38 of 39 shots in Vegas and it should be noted the Flyers won that game despite just 18 shots on goal. 8* Philadelphia

10* Oklahoma (7:00 ET): Led by Trae Young, Oklahoma got off to an incredible 14-2 start. But many of the advanced metrics raised some "red flags" and sure enough those red flags have came to fruition as the team has lost six of its last eight games. Now the majority of those losses have been close, including one by two points last week at home to West Virginia. Saturday saw them again lose as a favorite (-6), this time on the road to Iowa State. But that didn't stop the NCAA Tournament committee from pronouncing this as one of the top 16 teams. The pollsters aren't quite as high as the Sooners check in at #23 in the latest Top 25 poll. Things get no easier tonight w/ a visit to Lubbock to face #7 Texas Tech.

The seventh-ranked Red Raiders are trending in a much different direction that OU right now. They've won six straight, the last three all coming by double digits (3-0 ATS). This is the #3 team nationally in defensive efficiency (trailing only Virginia & Cincinnati) and they are holding opponents to only 58.9 points per game here at home where they have yet to lose a single time this season (15-0 straight up). Yet, this line seems inflated due to recent results. When they met last month in Norman, not only did Oklahoma win 75-65, they did so as 2.5-pt chalk. Given that result, it sure seems like the number has swung too far in the other direction for the rematch. Again, I suspct this has to do w/ recent results. But that's a small sample size, remember.

After losing B2B games as a favorite, Oklahoma is coming into this game highly motivated. Young has struggled in the previous two road games, at Texas & Iowa State, going just 14 for 43 overall from the field, including 3 for 22 from three-point range. I suspect he's going to have a big, bounce-back type game here, in spite of the Red Raiders' defensive numbers. In the first meeting, Young went for 27 pts (w/ 10 assists) and that was despite not shooting all that well. This is a player that has scored 43 or more points in four different games (he's the nation's leading scorer). By Big 12 standards, Texas Tech's recent slate of games hasn't been all that challenging. I expect nothing worse than a close loss from OU here. 10* Oklahoma

10* Over Blackhawks/Coyotes (9:05 ET): Even though Arizona is involved, few could have anticipated this being a "battle of last place teams" on Monday. Perennial power Chicago is struggling as five straight losses have kept them in the Central basement and they're now looking at an eight-point gap between them and the rest of the field. Time really is running out on them to make a push for the playoffs. As for the 'Yotes, the playoffs were never a realistic possibility entering this season as most felt they would be the worst team in the league. They've certainly lived up to advanced billing as their number of points (36) and goal differential (-64) both are league worsts. Something has to give here and I'm not about to lay the price w/ the Blackhawks. That means it's a totals play and I'm looking at the Over. 

The last five games have seen Chicago "doubled up" in scoring as they've lost by a combined score of 18-9. They were shutout (3-0) at Minnesota on Saturday, despite a massive 44-19 edge in shots. That might be their most frustrating loss of the year. It was only fifth time this season the 'Hawks have been shutout. Goaltending has obviously become an issue here w/ Corey Crawford still out. Jeff Glass could make only 16 saves on Saturdaay and the team has allowed the 6th most goals in the league since the Crawford injury. Though the power play still ranks 29th, I think the offense will be fine. The L3 games have seen Chicago put 36, 39 and 44 shots on goal. They should find the back of the net plenty here facing the 30th ranked team in goals allowed.

Now scoring has also been an issue all season long for the Coyotes, who rank dead last in the league in goals per game. But they did score three goals in their last game, a shootout loss to Philadelphia. The shootout went seven rounds and saw them fail to beat a backup goaltender that came in cold during the five minute overtime period. That being said, the 'Yotes have scored a total of 10 goals the last three games and have posted four straight Overs. On the other side of the ledger, they allow 3.5 gpg for the season as none of the four netminders used have been reliable. Over the last five games, the team has allowed 4.2 goals per. That's 21 goals total. 10* Over Blackhawks/Coyotes

8* Baylor (9:00 ET): The back half of the Big Monday doubleheader sees Texas hosting Baylor in an important games for both sides. As of today, it would appear as if both teams are right near the "cut line" for the NCAA Tournament. Baylor looks to be on the wrong side ("out") though they did just deliver their most impressive win of the year Saturday, beating Kansas 80-64 in Waco as three-point underdogs. That was the Bears' third consecutive win and cover. Texas, if you believe the "Bracketologists" would be in the field of 68 (anywhere between a 10-12 seed), even though they sport the very same 15-10 SU record as Baylor and have lost B2B games. I have the underdog rated as the better team here and given their lot, I think they're the more "desperate" side here. Take the points. 

Full disclosure - I did play against Baylor on Saturday. That was a mistake as the Bears put together one hell of an effort. In the first half, Kansas had more turnovers (9) than field goals made (7)! Now, I did say in my analysis that in my own personal power rankings, Baylor was ahead of not one, but two Big 12 teams that were thought to be "in" the Big Dance. Those being Kansas State ... and Texas. Baylor won the first meeting w/ the Longhorns this season, 69-60 as 2.5-pt chalk. They did so despite going 3 of 12 from three-point range. The key to victory was defense as Texas shot only 34.3% overall and attempted only five free throws. It will be hard to duplicate those kind of numbers, but it's not like the Longhorns have improved much offensively over the last month. 

Now Baylor has shot the ball extremely well during its three-game win streak, hitting 50% or better from the field in every game. They shot 56.6% from the floor against Kansas! Texas, known for its defensive efficiency (8th nationally), has allowed three straight opponents to shoot 51.6% or better from the field. TCU shot 54.8% against them in an 87-71 loss (for Texas) Saturday. Both of these teams have experienced their "fair share" of close losses in conference play, but Texas is the only one that's really been blown out. Not only was there the TCU game, but they also lost by 35 @ WVU. Baylor is 5-7 SU in conference play, but four of those losses have come by three points or less. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS off a conference win this year. 8* Baylor

10* Over Magic/Bulls (8:05 ET): Call it the "gambler's fallacy," but this play boils down to the fact Orlando and Chicago have a long (bizarre?) history of going Under against one another and that's bound to end at some point. Nine straight meetings between the two sides have stayed Under, which has to be one of the longest active, head to head streaks in the league. However, it's more than just the "just due" factor that leads me to believe we'll be seeing an Over here. For the season, Orlando's defense tends to be very bad (111.8 PPG allowed) on the road and their recent defensive efforts (which have been good) were due not to last. That's why I played (and won w/) the Over in their last game, a 111-104 loss to Milwaukee.

For me, Chicago has been a bottom rung team all season long. But this current stretch ranks right up there w/ their very worst. They've dropped eight of nine coming into tonight w/ the only win coming by a single point (over Minnesota). Even that win saw them fall behind by as many as 17 points. The Bulls latest "effort" was one of the worst of the entire losing skid as they fell 101-90 to Washington, here at home. They shot only 42.5% in the loss and the game easily stayed Under. It was the latest in a long-line of poor shooting efforts from Chicago, but perhaps a visit from Orlando will be what cures them (see defensive numbers above) as the Magic are allowing opponents to shoot right around 48% YTD. 

Chicago is no "great shakes" defensively either. In fact, both teams allow more than 109 PPG in all games this season. It's a little strange that Orlando's Over record isn't a little "better" away from home, given they both score and allow more points per game here than at home. The average Magic road game sees 218.4 points scored. In terms of points allowed, both teams rank in the bottom seven in the league. So again, despite the head to head history here, calling for a high-scoring game here is not w/o logic. The Magic also average 106.6 PPG on the road. At one point Saturday vs. Milwaukee, they missed 14 straight three-pointers. That won't happen again here. Nor will Chicago endure another 0 for 7 stretch to close the game like they did against the Wizards. 10* Over Magic/Bulls

8* New York (7:05 ET): Sure, the Knicks season is "all over but the shouting" now as Kristaps Porzingis was lost to a season-ending ACL tear. But the remaining players were game enough to stick w/ Indiana last night, for three quarters at least, in a 121-113 defeat. ATS results will vary there as there, as it could have been a win (Knicks opened +9.5), loss (closed +7.5) or even a push, depending when one bet the game. Even though this is the second game of a back to back and the team has now dropped six straight, I feel this line is way too high. The overreaction by the oddsmakers is obviously a result of the spot on the schedule and the loss of Porzingis. But at least last night the Knicks offense was able to show some life, for the first time w/o its All-Star. Take the points.

Another reason we are able to grab an inflated number here has to do w/ the recent play of the 76ers. They've won and covered three straight, all as favorites. Overall, this team has played pretty well, going back to late December. There was a stretch where they'd won seven of eight, but I'd argue that the current win streak is as good as they've looked all season. Yet, this is a pretty uncharted number for the young Sixers. It will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any game all season. The only other time they were a double digit favorite in 2017-18 (12.4 vs. Phoenix), they ended up losing that game outright. I simply cannot see a fourth consecutive double-digit win here, even given the respective state of the two teams involved here. 

As I mentioned earlier, the Knicks (finally) showed some life offensively last night. That would be the first time since Porzingis went down as they scored 113 pts against Indiana. In their five previous games (all losses), they had averaged only 87.2 PPG. Not saying they'll score 113 again here, but it was only a matter of time before the remaining players began to score more. Though their play on the defensive end has been better recently, Philadelphia still is giving up 105.8 PPG for the year. In division games, that number rises to 107.3. Emmanuel Mudiay, acquired in a trade w/ Denver, should continue to give the Knicks plenty of production (scored 17 pts in team debut yday). I simply don't trust "The Process" in this price range. 8* New York

10* UCF (4:00 ET): This is one of those challenging games to handicap due to key absences on both sides. But I have UCF rated as the better team, even after factoring in homecourt, thus they're a play for me on Sunday. Back on January 3rd, they proved they are a better team than Memphis, beating the Tigers 65-56 as eight-point home chalk. The line appears to have now swung far too much in the other direction, especially given the result of the 1st matchup. Granted, the Golden Knights just got their doors blown off by Cincinnati (lost by 37!) on Tuesday. B.J. Taylor reinjured his ankle in the loss after missing all five shots and is questionable to play today. But with or without him, UCF can lean on the fact there is simply no way they can be as bad from three-point range here as they were vs. Cincinnati (0 for 14!) and they remain one of the top defensive teams in the country. Take the points.

Memphis is also coming off a blowout loss. There's was suffered at the hands of Wichita State, the other "power" in the AAC. It was a 20-pt home loss and the Tigers' fourth setback in the past five games. As I've stated before, this is not your "older brother's Memphis' team." It certainly appears as if the players have tuned out HC Tubby Smith. Malik Rhodes was recently suspended for his public gripes over playing time. Keep in mind last Saturday, the Tigers lost to a terrible East Carolina team, 88-85. It wasn't just that they lost either; East Carolina came in as the nation's WORST three-point shootingt team and yet went 11 of 24 from behind the arc. That is one of just three AAC wins for ECU on the season and it clearly illustrates there's hope for the UCF offense here, regardless if Taylor plays or not.

I mentioned earlier that UCF is one of the top defensive teams in the country. This is true. Per KenPom, they rank fourth nationally in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 61.3 PPG w/ opponents shooting less than 39% for the season. Really, it's a shock that they are only 14-9 SU. That record has more to do w/ injuries than performance, however, and coming off a humiliating defeat I'd expect a motivated team today. As for Memphis, they are a terrible three-point shooting team (28.8% for the year!) and have allowed 80+ pts in B2B games. 10* UCF

8* Boston (3:35 ET): In spite of an incredible roster overhaul, I remain highly skeptical of Cleveland. Granted, such an overhaul NEEDED to take place considering the current team (outside of LeBron) simply wasn't very good. Despite being 10 games over .500, the Cavs have been outscored over the course of the season. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency and are giving up the most points in the Eastern Conference. Sure, they've won B2B games. But the first came against a Minnesota team (3rd offensive/24th defensive efficiency) they match up well with, considering the similar split in offensive/defensive efficiency (Cavs 5th on offense). Then, after all the trades went down, it was the lowly Hawks that they beat. No reason to be impressed there. Today, it's the Celtics and this spread is too low. Lay the number.

While Cleveland has languished near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency all season long, Boston has been the top team in this department. They rank #1, just barely allowing over one point per possession (Cleveland allows almost 1.1). Spread those efficiencies out over the course of a full 48 minutes and the gap is tremendous. The Celtics are currently the only team in the league besides San Antonio to be allowing fewer than 100 PPG. However, they do have their own issues to sort out right now. They've lost two of three and the one win required a bit of a miracle to beat Washington in overtime. They very easily could be coming into this game on a three-game losing skid. Offensively, they've been held under 100 pts in three of the last four games. Getting blown out Tuesday in Toronto, then losing at home to Indiana on Friday has them percentage points BEHIND the Raptors for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. 

I can't see Boston losing B2B home games though, something they have done only one other time all season (last month). In fact, following a SU loss, their record is 11-5 SU and 10-5-1 ATS. Cleveland has been all-time bad at the betting window this season, going 16-37-1 ATS and while they're the underdog here, I still suspect it's going to take time for the new roster to gel. Also, their ATS record off a double digit win this season is just 1-7. They lost here in Boston by 14 pts last month. Today is also a special day in Beantown as Paul Pierce's number is going to be retired. 8* Boston

10* Under Rangers/Jets (3:00 ET): A fairly early start time in Manitoba today w/ the Jets hosting the Rangers (did you know: those are two of the six "shared" nicknames, across pro sports?). Winnipeg had been in first place in the Central for awhile, but has dropped to second after taking a tough 5-2 loss here at home on Friday (at the hands of third place St. Louis). Their division figures to be a dogfight the rest of the way w/ the top four now separated by all of five points. The Rangers also find themselves in a dogfight, but they're just trying to get into the playoff picture. A recent brutal stretch (lost 7 of 9) has them in last in the equally tough Metro as they're 4 pts back of the final playoff spot. In what I think will "feel" like a playoff game, I'm taking the under this afternoon.

Winnipeg has been a GREAT team for much of the year. There was the loss Friday, but prior to that they'd gone 20-3-2 here at Bell MTS Place. What's interesting to note though is there number of shots forced/allowed don't necessarily change here, compared to the overall landscape. But scoring does, in positive directions, both when it comes to goals scored and allowed. The Jets average 3.8 goals per game here while allowing only 2.4. Connor Hellebuyck has started virtually every home game this year (save for three) and has a .928 save percentage here. It was a clear "off night" vs. the Blues Friday as he gave up four goals on just 26 shots (StL also added an empty-netter). But I would naturally expect a bounce-back today. Before scoring four goals in their last game, the Rangers had scored just four times total in their previous four contests. 

As a matter of fact, opposing goalies have posted a .942 save percentage against the Rangers the L5 games. Friday, it appeared as if the Blueshirts were headed for another defeat, but they scored twice in the third period including once on the power play. Note there were a total of three PP goals scored in that game between the two sides. It's not as if the Rangers have an exceptionally good power play (rank 15th). At the same time, Henrik Lundqvist has to start playing better, right? He has a .920 save percentage on the road this season, which I'll lean on more than his .894 save percentage the L4 games overall. 10* Under Rangers/Jets

10* Gonzaga (10:00 ET): This is the game Gonzaga has been waiting for as they seek to avenge their lone conference loss of the season and one of just four losses this season, period. They have lost since falling at home to St. Mary's, 74-71, as 7.5-pt chalk back on January 18th. Interestingly enough though, they have not covered a single spread since then either. The Zags are now on an eight-game ATS losing streak, which goes back to the game before losing to St. Mary's. Their YTD margin of victory, whether you're talking overall (+17.4 PPG) or in WCC play (+19.4) remains impressive. However, it's definitely taken a "hit" recently. None of the L4 wins have come by more than 10 points. This one doesn't have to be though, and that's key as I'll take the points.

Computers and power rankings seem to like these two more than the pollsters, which is nothing new. I believe Gonzaga to be the better team and one of the 10 best in the country for that matter. St. Mary's wouldn't be too far behind, but Top 20 is a better designation for them. The issue of homecourt advantage then comes into play here. The Gaels have won all 14 home games this season, by an average of nearly 19 points per game. Of course, homecourt advantage certainly didn't matter the first time these teams met when SMU pulled the upset (Gonzaga's lone home loss of the year). The line has swung about 10 points for this rematch, which seems like (to me) an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. Take note that both teams played Thursday and St. Mary's is just 2-8 ATS this season when playing w/ one or no days' rest.

The Gaels last loss occurred on November 26th, in overtime, at a neutral site against Georgia. That particular holiday tournament (Wooden Classic in Fullerton) is responsible for both losses this season as the game prior saw them lose to Washington State. Outside of Gonzaga, St. Mary's has not faced another ranked team all season. So the schedule can definitely be called into question. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has faced a schedule that includes games vs. Ohio State, Florida, Creighton and Villanova. Any of those four teams would be SMU's hardest or second-hardest game to date. St. Mary's was ridiculous from the field in that first meeting, shooting 56.6% overall and 8 of 13 from three-point range. Don't look for those numbers to be duplicated tonight. 10* Gonzaga

8* Carolina (8:05 ET): The Hurricanes came through for me last night and I'll go w/ them again here, even in the second night of a back to back. Both games at home obviously makes this a slightly more favorable situation as do the opponents. Last night was a visit from lowly Vancouver, who put up little fight in a 4-1 final. It was a 3-0 game at the end of the 1st period and the 'Canes limited their opponent to just 22 shots for the game. Tonight, they face a Colorado club that was the league's worst last season, only to have a surprising resurgence in 2017-18. But the Avs are starting to show signs of regression, namely a 6-1 loss at St. Louis Thursday, which was their fifth loss in the last seven games. 

The large edge in shots on goal last night is nothing new for Carolina. I wrote about this in yday's analysis, but will reiterate that they lead the league in shot per game differential, which I believe to be a key metric. That league-leading number is now +4.9 per game. The next best team is Pittsburgh (+3.6) and only six other teams are +2.0 or better. It's been shaky goaltending that has betrayed this team this season (also wrote about this in yday's analysis), but last night saw HC Bill Peters "roll the dice" w/ backup Scott Darling and it paid off. Now, the team is likely to go w/ #1 goalie Cam Ward, who has a .947 save percentage his L4 starts. This is the second-to-last game of a season-high eight-game homestand for the 'Canes and somewhat of a "must win" considering their current position in the Eastern Conference (one point back of 2nd Wild Card) and the fact they lost the first five games of the homestand.

Colorado has not been able to muster much offense recently, which probably can be tied to the loss of center Nathan MacKinnon. The Avs are a pretty banged up team right now. They too are sitting just one win outside the playoff picture in the Western Conference. The road has not always been kind to the Avs this year as they are 10-13-3 overall and have just one regulation win since 1.14. They allow 3.4 goals per game away from home. Now let's talk about the first meeting of the year between these teams, which somehow Carolina lost 5-3 despite a 60-27 (!) edge in shots on goal. That is not a misprint. 'Canes get their revenge. 8* Carolina

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Milwaukee's recent surge (following the firing of Jason Kidd) ended w/ a THUD last night as they lost 91-85 down in Miami. Tonight is the second of back to back games in Florida and they get the lesser of two teams in Orlando. Any realistic chance of the Magic competing for a playoff spot went out the window long ago, but right now they are playing their best basketball since November. It's been three consecutive upset wins (over Miami, Cleveland and Atlanta) and they're 4-1 SU their five games as well. Those four wins equal the number they had over their previous 24 games! Yet, the Bucks are the team I feel is more likely to "come back down to Earth" tonight. Take the points.

Milwaukee has performed surprisingly well in the second half of a back to back this season, going 8-3 SU and 7-2-2 ATS. But it's not too often that they are favored on the road in this situation. As a matter of fact, tonight will make just the eighth time all season that the Bucks are favored on the road. The numbers suggest this is a pretty mediocre outfit as they've scored and allowed the same number of points per game (104.4) this season. Recently, their defense had improved somewhat dramatically (since firing Kidd), but while last night marked the fourth straight time they allowed fewer than 100 pts (also 7th time in last 8 games), the offensive numbers were ugly. They scored only 85 pts, their second fewest in a game all season. The only time they scored fewer (79) was January 14th, also against Miami! So it must be something about the Heat.

The last time they faced Orlando was last month (in Milwaukee) and that was a 110-103 final, won by the Bucks as 10.5-pt favorites. Milwaukee went 41 of 62 on two-point attempts in that game. Orlando is obviously playing better now, both offensively and defensively, then they were then. In fact, the last 11 games have seen them average 107.6 PPG, up from 102.7 the previous 27. They are also allowing "only" 105.4 the L11 games after allowing 112.6 PPG those previous 27. The fact they've been able to make this run w/o leading scorer Aaron Gordon is impressive. The team is now 6-2 SU w/ DJ Augustin as the starting point guard. All season, Orlando has been competitive at home, going 11-14 SU and only being outscored by an average of three points per game. 8* Orlando

10* Over Bucks/Magic (8:05 ET): It's been a rather significant defensive resurgence post-Jason Kidd firing as they've now held seven of their last eight opponents, including the last four, below 100 pts. However, last night saw the offensive betray them in an ugly 91-85 loss to Miami. It was the third quarter in particular that cost them as they were outscored 30-9. They also missed 14 of 20 three-pointers for the game. They've now gone Under in nine consecutive games as well as 14 of the past 16. I cannot see this continuing. The last five games have seen them allow an average of only 94.4 PPG, which is rougly 10 PPG below their season average. At the same time, they're also scoring about 10 PPG less than their season average those L5 games. Take the Over here as the number is more than 10 pts lower than what it was when these teams faced off last month.

Tonight sees the Magic gunning for their first four-game win streak since late 2015! They've pulled three consecutive upsets, beating Miami, Cleveland and Atlanta. They've also won four of five, averaging 110.4 PPG in the process. But offense has never really been an issue here, even w/ leading scorer Aaron Gordon currently out of the lineup. The team averages 105.7 PPG for the year and has been at 107.6 PPG the L11 games. Defensively, however, there are issues. They rank 27th in efficiency. They have allowed fewer than 100 pts in B2B games, but allowed 98 both times. This is only the second time all season we've seen the Magic do this and the first saw them allow 99 in both games. A team giving up 109.9 PPG for the season should give up its "fair share" tonight. 

When these teams met last month, it was a 111-103 final, won by Milwaukee. The Bucks shot an outrageous 41 of 62 from two-point range, but what's interesting is that neither team shot well from three-point range. They combined to go 12 for 48, exactly 25%. Orlando only shot 43.3% for the game and should easily improve upon that here, Milwaukee's recent defensive showings be damned. The Bucks also missed a lot of free throws in that last matchup, which cost Over bettors. With a far lower O/U line this time around and Milwaukee destined to see its performance move closer to season-long averages, Over is the call here. 10* Over Bucks/Magic

9* Over Purdue/Michigan State (4:00 ET): Maybe they were caught looking ahead to this game, but Purdue blew a 14-point second half lead Thursday against Ohio State and saw it's 19-game winning streak come to an end. It was also the 5th consecutive game they failed to cover. The other half of the equation in this Big 10 showdown is Michigan State and the Spartans have struggled at the betting window of late as well, going 0-4-1 ATS their L5 games. Somebody "has" to cover today obviously (or maybe it will be a push?), but my interest is w/ the total. I had the Over in the aformentioned Purdue-Ohio State game and while that came up short, I don't see that being the case here in a battle of two teams both averaging 80+ PPG.

This is also just the 2nd time all season that Purdue checks in as an underdog. The first took place all the way back on 11.24 vs. Arizona, who at the time was ranked #2 in the country. That game took place in Atlantis and it's crazy that those two teams were playing for 7th place in the tournament. Were they to play again today, Purdue would clearly be favored. It's also interesting to note that at the time the Boilermakers were off B2B losses. Beating Arizona is what started the 19-game win streak as they scored 89 points on 57.4% shooting. Wednesday's loss to Ohio State saw the Boilers shoot only 42.6% overall and it was their lowest scoring game of the year (63 points). Pretty clearly, you should expect a bounce back offensively here. We've seen 9 of their last 11 games stay Under, so we're also "due" for an Over.

East Lansing has seen its fair share of high-scoring games this season as the Over is 9-3 in all Spartans' home games. Sparty is also off a high-scoring win on the road and, really, that's putting things mildly. They won 96-93 at Iowa on Wednesday and, no, there was no overtime there. MSU scored 48 pts in each half and shot 56.1% for the game. While those numbers may be hard (if not impossible) to duplicate here, note that Purdue has allowed a shooting percentage of nearly 50 percent its last five games. Michigan State also is averaging a stunning 90 PPG here at the Breslin Center. Purdue averages a not too shabby 83.2 PPG overall and both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency nationally. 9* Over Purdue/Michigan St

8* Kansas (2:00 ET): #10 Kansas finds itself in a dogfight as it looks to win an unprecedented 14th consecutive Big 12 regular season title. The Jayhawks enter the weekend tied for 1st w/ #7 Texas Tech at 8-3 SU in conference play. After suffering a somewhat shocking home defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State last Saturday, Bill Self's squad quickly bounced back by defeating TCU 71-64 as seven-point chalk. Today, they'll hit the road to face Baylor. The Bears, who played KU tough last month (lost by only three in Lawrence) are off B2B victories, though they'd also lost four in a row before that. That loss to the Jayhawks last month was particularly painful as the Bears still have NEVER won in Allen Fieldhouse. They led by six w/ just over two minutes remaining. I expect a similar result this afternoon in Waco. 

Baylor is just 4-7 SU in Big 12 play and 14-10 SU overall. Right now, they are NOT considered a NCAA Tournament team, the only Big 12 team besides Oklahoma State and Iowa State with that distinction. Quite frankly, it would take one heck of a close to the regular season or more likely winning the conference tournament just to get to the Big Dance. To illustrate how strong this league is, I have the Bears ranked 32nd in the country, which would be sixth best in the 12-team Big 10 (ahead of both Texas and Kansas State). While there have been some close calls in this rivalry recently (last five meetings all decided by six points or less!), all of them have gone Kansas' way. The Jayhawks have even found plenty of ATS success here in Waco, covering in 10 of the previous 13 visits. 

Baylor has won consecutive games by double digits, but those came against the two weakest teams in the league, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Needless to say, the defensive effort put forth in Tuesday's "upset" (were +2) in Stillwater likely won't be repeated here as they held OK State to 37.3% shooting for the game. Kansas comes in ranked in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and that's something that only a handful of teams in the county can lay claim to (only 5 to be exact: Purdue, Mich St, Gonzaga & WVU being the others). I just can't see the Jayhawks losing here, so that combined w/ a low spread has me laying the points. 8* Kansas

8* Oklahoma State (12:00 ET): The Big 12 likes to fancy itself as the best - and deepest - conference in America. Yet, there is a good chance that we'll be seeing the same end result we always do come the end of the regular season, that being Kansas on top. #19 West Virginia would certainly like to change that though. But even after B2B wins have gotten the Mountaineers within one game of the conference lead, there's still plenty of work to be done in Morgantown, especially considering the team had dropped five of six prior to the B2B victories. I have them rated as better than #19, but also can't see them winning by more than the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here against a game OK State squad. Take the points.

The Pokes are near the bottom of the Big 12 and have the league's worst RPI (outdated metric). However, that doesn't mean they haven't been competitive. Last Saturday, they went to Kansas and won - as 12-pt underdogs - 84-79. It's a little interesting to see them getting an almost identical number now against a slight inferior team. This underdog has generally been quite competitive on the road this season, leading Texas Tech, Kansas State and Arkansas in the second half. They ended up losing to those three teams by a combined 10 points. Then there was the first meeting w/ WVU, who they led by as many as 13 (w/ only seven minutes remaining!) before faltering late and losing the game 85-79. OK State didn't even end up covering as they were three-point dogs.

Using the the line for the first matchup as a baseline and the line for LW's Kansas game, it sure does seem as if there's some value on the underdog in this early Saturday tip. Keep in mind WVU is off a two-point victory (75-73) over Oklahoma as three-point underdogs. Also, Oklahoma State came here and won outright last season, 82-75 as 10-pt dogs. The road team has actually won each of the L4 meetings! Even against a great defensive team like WVU, I have to imagine the Cowboys will shoot better here than they did Tuesday vs. Baylor (37.3%) when they lost 67-56. Only one time, that being 1/3 at Oklahoma, have the Pokes been blown out in conference play. 8* Oklahoma State

8* Detroit (9:00 ET): The Horizon League lost Valparaiso (to the Missouri Valley) before this season, opening up a void that needed to be filled atop the conference. Currently, three teams are separated by just one game and are at least three games ahead of the rest of the field. Neither of these two teams are among that power trio (which is Wright State, Northern Kentucky and UIC). Yet there will still be a sense of pride on the line Friday night as in-state rivals Oakland and Detroit meet. Especially because this is a rare national TV game (on ESPN2). The first matchup of the year produced a 92-86 Oakland win, although they failed to cover as nine-point road favorites (thanks to a big Detroit 2H rally). I'll be taking the points here.

A couple things to consider here before we break down the actual matchup on the court. One is that an official statement has been released that this game WILL be played tonight, regardless if Oakland is forced to "shut down" the campus due to inclement weather in the area. Obviously, given the weather situation, I expect crowd support to be low and thus decrease the value of "homecourt advantage" in this one. Two, a lot of names (on both sides) won't be playing. Just SIX scholarship players suited up for Oakland in Sunday's 82-74 win over IUPUI. That's because THREE players were injured in last Friday's 79-73 loss to UIC, one of them a season-ender (ACL) to starting PG Brailen Neely. Detroit's depth is also being tested as three players were already out due to suspension (undisclosed or academic) and now three more are either injured or battling the flu. Good grief! 

WIth both teams possibly running "skeleton crews" on the floor Friday night, taking the points only seems logical, especially w/ this being a rivalry game. The first meeting saw Oakland jump out to a 50-29 halftime lead before winning by only six. I can't see Detroit digging themselves such a hole this time around. I also have to question the psyche of an Oakland team that was the preseason favorite in the Horizon League and has massively underachieved (just 4-11 ATS as a favorite). Meanwhile, Detroit (currently in 10th place) can still improve its position for the conference tournament as they are only two games back of fifth place Milwaukee in the loss column. 8* Detroit

10* Over Bucks/Heat (8:05 ET): The Bucks' Under streak hit EIGHT in a row Tuesday as they held the Knicks (lost Kristaps Porzingis to season-ending injury during the course of the game) to just 89 points on 41.6% shooting. Apparently, Jason Kidd wasn't preaching defense because since his firing Milwaukee has transformed somewhat dramatically on that end of the floor. They've allowed 96 pts or fewer six times in the last seven games. Not coincidentally, those six times all resulted in wins and the one exception was a loss (108-89 loss to Minnesota). Speaking of streaks, tonight's opponent (Miami) has lost its last five games. This is a low total (for both teams) and I'm going Over.

While the Bucks' play on the defensive end seems to be rapidly improving, it's been just the opposite for the Heat, who have allowed 111, 111 and 109 pts respectively the L3 games. Before you ask, none of the games went to overtime either. While they did just hold Houston slightly below its scoring average of 114.0 PPG (lost 109-101), they still let the Rockets shoot 51% from the field. That was two games after letting the Pistons (not a great offensive team) shoot 52.4% from the field. For the year, teams are actually shooting a pretty healthy 46.5% against the Heat here in Miami. At the same time, the Heat have now topped 100 pts in three straight games after failing to do so six straight times. 

To me, the key here is Milwaukee's recent defensive showing is due to regress to the mean. The last five games have seen them allow only 95.2 PPG, which is well below their norm for the season, especially on the road where they are still giving up 105.8 PPG. The average number of points per game Milwaukee scores + allows is 209.2 (they both score/allow 104.6), which is well above the O/U line for tonight. The same holds true for Miami's season average, albeit to a lesser degree. You would have to go all the way back to 12.9 to find the last Bucks' game that had an O/U line below 200 pts and that game (117-110 win over Utah) easily went Over. In fact, the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 Over this season when the O/U line is below 200 points! Miami is 3-1 Over the L4 times w/ a total this low. 10* Over Bucks/Heat

10* Under Kings/Panthers (7:35 ET): In each of the Kings' last three games, either they or the opponent has scored five or more goals. Interesting though is the fact that two of those games were also shutouts, one in their favor (6-0 over Arizona) and one not (5-0 loss at Nashville). Wednesday's win over Edmonton made it 11 goals for LA alone in the L2 games, but prior to that six of their last eight games had stayed Under the total. Tonight, they embark on a critical seven-game road trip w/ the majority of games taking place out East. There's plenty to like about this team moving forward (#2 in goals allowed/#1 in penalty killing) and they seem to have "righted the ship" (won 5 of 7) after a January swoon. However, they are facing a pretty hot team in its own right. Give me the Under in this non-conference matchup. 

 The Panthers have won four in a row, giving up only six goals in the process. They are riding the very unlikely success story of Harri Sateri, a 28-year old rookie, in goal. Sateri has posted a stunning .950 save percentage while starting every game during the team's active win streak. Tuesday vs. Vancouver, he stopped 26 of 27 shots. Having had the last two days off is nice because right now Sateri is basically the team's lone option between the pipes as Roberto Luongo is still injured and James Reimer is just getting cleared Friday. Since Jan 21st, Sateri has the second most saves of any goaltender in the league. However, something he and the rest of the Panthers will have to deal w/ here is the Kings are a team that likes to dominate possession of the puck.

Of course, all teams "like" to dominate possession; the Kings just happen to do it better than most. Thus, I see Florida's streak of scoring three or more goals being snapped here at four games. It's not like the Panthers are a dominant offensive team. For the season, they rank only 19th in goals per game. The Kings aren't much better at 17th. Something else to like here, as it pertains to the Under, is that we're going to get Jonathan Quick in goal for LA. Quick, who has not played the L2 games, had actually struggled of late. But following some time off, I expect him to regain previous form. His save percentage against Eastern Conference teams this year is .931. 10* Under Kings/Panthers 

8* Carolina (7:35 ET): Given the current "lay of the land" in the Eastern Conference, this is a virtual "must win" for the Hurricanes, who are only one point back of the final Wild Card spot. Five teams from the Metro figure to make the playoffs (top three are guaranteed), but w/ all eight teams more than alive, losing streaks need to be avoided. The 'Canes come into Friday having dropped three in a row. Fortunately for them, two other teams in the division (Blue Jackets, Islanders) have lost four in a row. A visit from lowly Vancouver should cure what ails the 'Canes as the Canucks have also lost three straight, but the difference here is that the visitors have been "down for the count" this entire season. Give me the home team. 

There is at least one key metric that suggests Carolina could make a late season run. They continue to post the league's best shot per game differential at +4.8. The next closest team is Pittsburgh (+3.6) and there are only four others above +2.0. Ironically enough, they did NOT outshoot their previous opponent, that being Philadelphia, who beat them 2-1 in overtime on Tuesday. But that brings up an issue the Hurricanes have had all season and that's losing in extra time. Their nine OT/shootout losses are tied for second most in the league. Turn some of those into wins and all of a sudden this is probably a playoff team, easy. Something else to consider is the goaltending. Hurricanes' goalies have combined for an .898 save percentage, which is 4th lowest in the league. Vancouver isn't much better though and I'm hoping a visit from the 26th ranked team in goals per game scored would also be a welcome reprieve.

Vancouver had to play last night, and lost, 5-2 in Tampa Bay. So in addition to being a lousy team, the situation tonight is not great. Anders Nilsson started in goal last night, so that likely means it will be Jacob Markstrom tonight. Carolina is due for an offensive breakout after being held to two goals or fewer each of the L5 games. During that time, opposing goaltenders have posted a somewhat ridiculous .957 save percentage against them. It's especially ridiculous when you consider all five games have been played here in Raleigh! For the season, Markstrom's save percentage is only .908. 8* Carolina

8* Washington (8:05 ET): With Cleveland declining and skepticism of Toronto, the NBA's Eastern Conference seems far more wide open in 2018 than past years. Most consider Boston the favorite now, but they just got clobbered up in Toronto (lost by 20) two nights ago. Granted, they had won four in a row prior to the loss, but they're still only 5-6 SU the L11 games overall. Tonight, the Celtics visit the Nation's capital to take on a Wizards team also looking to rebound from a bad loss suffered on Tuesday. Playing on the second night of a back to back (and w/o John Wall), the Wiz lost in Philly 115-102, a game which they never led. Tonight marks their ONLY home game from February 3rd-22nd and I expect an all-out effort.

You may have noticed this line "flipped" overnight w/ the Wizards now favored. Boston is 11-2 ATS as an underdog while Washington is just 11-23 ATS as a favorite. So the "reversed roles" may not seem all that promising. However, note that the Wiz are 5-1 ATS off a double digit loss this season, plus 17-9 SU at home where they average an impressive 110.5 PPG. Now they still don't have Wall, but they do have Bradley Beal, who is having a career year. Some (not me) have even speculated that the team plays better without Wall. They'd won five in a row prior to the Philly loss and that included wins here at home over Oklahoma City and Toronto, both as underdogs. This is just the 2nd meeting of the year w/ Boston; Washington won the first, on the road, X-Mas Day as four-point dogs (111-103) despite being outshot severely from three-point range. 

That X-Mas Day matchup saw Boston go 14 of 29 from three-point range while Washington was only 6 for 26. I don't see a repeat of those numbers tonight. The Celtics trailed Toronto by as many as 29 on Tuesday as Kyrie Irving returned from his own injury. That was just the fourth double digit loss of the season and they've responded from each of the previous three by winning the next time out. But you can look for tonight to be a bit different as the Wizards should be treating this game w/ the utmost importance. Meanwhile, Boston has to think about returning home to face Indiana tomorrow night, followed by another home game vs. Cleveland on Sunday. 8* Washington

analysis soon

10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Playing against lowly Buffalo at home will generally give you a decent price and that's the case here w/ the Islanders, who are in desperate need of two points considering the current lay of the land in the Metro. As we've been saying for month now, the Metro is more than likely to send five teams to the playoffs this season due to getting both Wild Cards. Entering play today, the Islanders are tied w/ Columbus for the final WC spot at 58 pts. A win here could move them into the top WC spot, depending on what happens w/ Philadelphia. Buffalo is one of the few teams in the Eastern Conference where the playoffs aren't a realistic possibility. They are last in points, goal differential and have lost four in a row. Playing against them at this price seems like a "no brainer." 

The Islanders have won only three times in the last nine games. They've now had two days off since losing to Nashville, 5-4, in overtime. Though they were outshot pretty severely (47-28!), the Isles were in position to win the game w/ a minute to go in regulation. That kind of high score has become all too common for the Isles as they are 3rd in the league in goals per game, but dead last (31st) in goals allowed. Fortunately for them, tonight presents an ideal matchup. The Sabres also rank near the bottom of the league in goals allowed per game (28th), but are also dead last in scoring themselves. Simply put, this is a game where the Isles' offense can carry them.

New York has scored four times in B2B games. As for Buffalo, they have scored just six goals total during a four-game losing streak. After being shutout by St. Louis, 1-0 on Saturday, they lost 4-3 here at home to Anaheim on Tuesday. Three goals is more than what we usually see from this team and home ice advantage has been virtually non-existent. Not only are the Sabres just 6-15-4 at the KeyBank Center; they're being outscored here by an average of 1.2 goals per game! The entirety of the current four-game losing streak has come here at home. They did at least earn a "losers point" (lost in OT) vs. the Ducks, but it was also the 1st time on this homestand they scored more than two goals. This should be a rewarding trip upstate for the Islanders, who are 8-4 SU this season when playing w/ two days recent. They're also 2-0 YTD vs. the Sabres. 10* NY Islanders

10* Delaware (7:00 ET): Tonight, we head to the CAA, a league that is nowhere near what it once was during they "heyday" of George Mason and VCU. Both those schools left for the "greener pastures" of the Atlantic 10, leaving behind a field that is generally competitive, albeit no longer than dangerous come March. Northeastern is one of the teams currently competing for the top spot as they enter the day just one game back of 1st place Charleston. The Huskies snapped a two-game losing streak by beating UNC Wilmington 107-100 on Saturday, but as you can tell from that score, it was an overtime affair. Tonight, they hit the road for what "looks" to be a winnable game, but it's always dangerous laying points in this situation and I'll fade. 

Delaware is your host tonight and things have not been going well for the Blue Hens of late. They're on a six-game losing streak, three of those coming at home. But, as you might expect, the losses at home have generally been closer calls than those that took place on the road. They covered here against both Towson and Hofstra, losing those games by only a combined nine points. Tonight marks a revenge spot for the Blue Hens, who lost up in Northeastern last month by a score of 76-64. Interestingly, they were "only" 10-pt dogs in that contest, so by comparison, tonight's line looks like it has some substantial value. Delaware actually led the 1st meeting at the half, 31-28.

Now not having leading scorer Ryan Daly is something Delaware must overcome here. He injured his ankle against Charleston back on Jan 25 and hasn't played in any of the three games since. However, even w/o him, the Blue Hens were competitive in two home games. Tonight's spread appears to be an overreaction to the injury. Even in Saturday's 13-pt loss to Elon, offense really wasn't an issue as the Blue Hens scored 76 pts despite going only 6 of 25 from three-point range. Northeastern isn't a great defensive team by any means and their offensive numbers are obviously "skewed" by the last game. As a nine-point underdog LY, the Blue Hens upset the Huskies here at home. I think they are capable of doing it again. 10* Delaware.

10* Over Ohio State/Purdue (8:30 ET): This sets up as a GREAT matchups as these two teams have gone a combined 23-1 SU vs. the rest of the Big 10 w/ that one loss belonging to the Buckeyes (at home to Penn State). Purdue is one of the consensus top three teams in the country right now (along w/ Villanova and Virginia) and I could make a case that there's NO team better than Boilermakers, who have outscored their opponents by 19.8 points per game over the course of the season. However, they are off a close call at Rutgers (won by only 2) on Saturday and have failed to cover four in a row. This spread MIGHT be too low, but I'm more comfortable wagering on the total tonight, which I'm confident is too low. Take the Over.

While Purdue had to thwart a comeback effort Saturday vs. Rutgers (led virtually the entire game), Ohio State required a comeback to get by its lowly Big 10 opponent (Ilinois) on Sunday. The Buckeyes trailed by as many as 11 in the first half before taking control by halftime and leading the rest of the way. Something I noticed right away here is that despite both teams basically shooting 50% from the field in conference play, we've seen a rash of Unders from both sides. Ohio State has averaged 75 points its last three games and the two that went Under did so because of the opposition. Six of the Buckeyes' last seven games have stayed Under as they're now 17-6 Under for the season. But this team isn't very accustomed to playing out on the road (just four "true" road games!) and I'm wondering how and if their defense "travels." 

Purdue has uncharacteristically been struggling on the defensive end of late. Their last five opponents have shot 49.7% against them, though that clip is largely owed to Michigan's stunning 60% effort back on 1.25. Still all five teams shot at least 44.1% from the field. Not enough people talk about the Boilermakers' offense, which is third in the nation in efficiency and averages 87.4 PPG here in West Lafayette. They are shooting better than 50% for the year (all games), including a ridiculous 42.7% from three-point range. That helps explain why they've won 19 in a row (nation's longest win streak) and in the L17 games, they've scored no fewer than 70 every time. 10* Over Ohio State/Purdue

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Similar to last night's OUTRIGHT winner on Orlando, we have a home team getting far too many points here. The situations aren't quite the same, however. Last night, I spoke (at great length!) about how bad Cleveland is right now and how they shouldn't be laying that many points - to any team - right now, even an opponent as lowly as Orlando. Despite the Cavs' (many!) shortcomings, they're still being valued at a price reflective of past year's performance, not the current season. Here w/ Utah, we have a team that has been playing WAY above its head recently. They've not only won and covered six straight, but five of those victories have come on the road (and in the one home game, they beat the Warriors by 30!). 

While it may seem ultra-dangerous to fade a team whose last four victories include THREE by 24+ pts, let's have some perspective, shall we? Prior to the current streak, the Jazz were an awful 5-19 straight up on the road. I have no unearthly idea where this offense has come from as the L4 games have seen them average an astounding 127.75 PPG! In the three games prior, they failed to even break 100! They've shot 56.5% or better in all four games, which I'm not sure I've EVER seen before, and just achieved a season-high in points scored w/ 133 on Monday in New Orleans. Obviously, the current level of play can't be sustained. It should be noted that this is the Jazz's fourth road game in six nights. That's a scheduling spot that often has an adverse effect on performance.

Why do I think Memphis, a team that just lost by 26 in Atlanta last night, is the one to stop this Utah streak? Well, for starters, their recent shooting has been just the opposite of the Jazz's. In each of the L3 games, the Grizzlies have been below 43% from the floor. All three games took place on the road, mind you. At home, the Grizz are a far more respectable outfit. It's also worth noting that they play at a very slow tempo. Their style of play, last night aside, is conducive to at least keeping games close. In fact, in terms of number of possessions per game, both of these teams are in the bottom six. I see this as a pretty low-scoring game and considering Utah has only been a road fave of this season ONCE all season (and lost outright at Phoenix back in October), this spread should be a lot smaller. Take the points. 10* Memphis

9* NY Rangers (8:05 ET): For most of this season, Tampa Bay has been considered the top team. Vegas has clearly been the best "story." But Boston is also making a case that it too deserves to be mentioned among the NHL's elite. Only three teams (TB, Vegas, Winnipeg) have more points and only the Lightning have a better goal differential. The Bruins come into tonight riding a three-game win streak and are 8-1 the last nine games. All eight wins have come in regulation w/ the lone setback coming in the first game back after the All-Star Break. Many of the wins, including last night (3-2 at Detroit) have come on the road. But very few of those have been against quality opponents.

The Rangers have been trending in the exact opposite direction of the Bruins. They've lost three straight as well as six of their last seven. As a result, they have fallen to the bottom of the Metro. But all hope is not lost here in MSG. The Blueshirts might be in last in their division, but they are only three points out of the final playoff spot. The Metropolitan has been uber tough this season and we've seen teams rise and fall all season long. Also, only one of those six losses has come at home where the Rangers are still 17-9-3 for the year. Tonight marks a great "buy low" opportunity, in my opinion. 

 I can't imagine the recent play of veteran Henrik Lundqvist isn't going to improve - drastically - moving forward. The longtime Rangers' netminder has an .852 save percentage his L4 starts. Henrik the Great is 27-12-2 all-time in 41 career starts vs. Boston and the Rangers have won seven of the last eight head to head meetings overall (including all four here in MSG). This being the second night of a back to back for the Bruins gives the Rangers a huge break as they are likely to avoid Tuukka Rask, who has a .944 save percentage in his L4 outings. Boston is only 3-5 SU in the second game of a back to back to begin with, so it's a spot where they usually struggle. Interestingly enough, they have NOT had to play on consecutive days at any point during the current 8-1 surge. Meanwhile, over the last three seasons, the Rangers are 10-2 SU when coming into a game on a losing streak of three or more games. 9* NY Rangers