8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets finally won a game last week as they stunned the Rams 23-20 as a two-touchdown underdog on the road. While it saved them from the potential embarrassment of going 0-16, the win ultimately may prove costly as the Jets are no longer in position to pick 1st in next spring’s Draft (Jacksonville is). Of course, HC Adam Gase probably doesn’t want to get fired (I would have never hired him), so the win may have bought him some time. I think the conventional wisdom here will be that the Jets “can’t possibly win two in a row.” While that may be true, I do see a ton of value with line. 

The Browns went 0-16 a few years ago, but that’s now a distant memory with Baker Mayfield leading a renaissance in Cleveland. The Browns are now 10-4 SU and barring a complete collapse will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But this is a somewhat unprecedented spread for Cleveland. The last time they were favored by at least 9 points on the road was 1976 when they laid two touchdowns to the expansion Buccaneers. That was a long time ago! Mayfield is just 2-6 ATS in his career as a road favorite and the Browns are 3-10 ATS overall their L13 road games. You may recall that I successfully faded them a few weeks ago in Jacksonville when they were -6.5. They ended up winning that game by only two points. 

Since Week 5, the Browns have just one win by more than five points. It came last week in this stadium, against the Giants, 20-6. However, you should note the Giants failed to score on TWO drives that ended inside the 10-yard line. With half the Browns games this season being decided by one score, you really can’t justify laying this many points with them on the road. I know it’s the Jets and motivation could be an issue now that they’ve actually won, but my power ratings say this number should be under a touchdown. The Browns are only 3-6 ATS their L9 games and have failed to cover four of the six games where they’ve been favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the points. 8* NY Jets

10* Indiana State (1:00 ET): Drake is not only 9-0 straight up, they are also 7-0 against the spread to start the season (two games vs. non-board teams). But the Bulldogs haven’t really beaten anyone of note since the season opener at Kansas State. Sunday afternoon finds them traveling to Terre Haute for the MVC opener. While this is a rivalry Drake has largely dominated at the betting window (8-1 ATS L9, 6-0 L6), ISU did win the most recent meeting, 58-56 back in January, on this floor. Close games have also been common with four of the past six head to head matchups being decided by six points or fewer.

Indiana State has played just five games so far and is 3-2 SU. Both losses are quite excusable as they were on the road against Purdue and St. Louis. The Sycamores are 3-0 SU at home after their most recent game, a 72-66 win over SE Missouri State on Tuesday. While the final margin ended up being just six points, ISU started the game with a 9-0 run and never trailed. They were up double digits for most of the second half.

Every one of Drake’s wins this season has been by double digits, so give them credit. But this will be just the third “true” road game of the season and only the second in the L30 days. Again, the schedule has been weak with two non-DI opponents, not to mention the likes of South Dakota, Chicago State and North Dakota. A side note: these teams are also playing tomorrow. I absolutely think Drake’s unbeaten run ends here in Terre Haute and Larry Bird’s alma mater is worth taking the points Sunday afternoon. They are 24-6 SU L30 home games. 10* Indiana State

10* Minnesota (9:05 ET): Not sure how good the T’wolves are going to be this season, but they did start the season with a win (admittedly, it was vs. Detroit) and are getting a decent amount of points tonight in Salt Lake City. The Jazz probably couldn’t have asked for a better start to their season as they blew out Portland on the road, winning by 20 points (120-100). It won’t be that easy every night, however. Look for this to be a close game Saturday night between two Northwest Division rivals. Take the points. 

Minnesota was NOT invited to the bubble, so the win against Detroit Wednesday night was the 1st time we got a chance to see them play since March. While Karl-Anthony Towns led the way with 22 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists, it was Malik Beasley that scored a team-high 23. That the T’wolves won by 10 is a little misleading in the sense they trailed by as many as 12 in the third quarter. They actually didn’t take their first lead until there were less than four minutes remaining in the game. 

Despite that, the underdog role should suit them well tonight against a Jazz team that won’t be able to replicate its Wednesday effort. They put up 50 three-point attempts, a potential sign of things to come. Five different players drained at least three 3-pointers and the team made 19 of those 50 attempts. Defensively, they held Damian Lillard scoreless (!) in the first half. Again though, this feels like a bit of a letdown spot. I look for the T’wolves to shoot better tonight than they did vs. Detroit (43.2%) and with games against the Lakers & Clippers looming in the next three days, they should play hard in this one. 10* Minnesota

9* Under Dolphins/Raiders (8:15 ET): These teams are seemingly headed in opposite directions. I played Miami last week as they beat the Patriots 22-12, their 8th SU win in the L10 games (they’ve also gone 9-1 ATS in that stretch). Las Vegas has lost four of five, the only win coming against the then-winless Jets on a last second “Hail Mary.” I went against the Raiders last Thursday when they fell in overtime to the Chargers. Normally, I might stick with the Dolphins’ bandwagon, but this will be LV’s third straight game at home and I don’t like how the line “jumped the fence” early in the week. It’s the total that’s catching my eye now.

What’s interesting about playing this total is that each of the Raiders’ last seven games have seen at least 49 total points scored and five of those seven have seen at least 57 total points scored. But Miami has seen 33 or LESS total points scored in four of its last five games (exception was vs. KC). So something will have to give. Considering Marcus Mariota could start for Las Vegas, I think this will be more of a “Miami-type game.” Even if Derek Carr is able to play, you’d have to be concerned about his injured groin facing one of the best defenses in the league.

Over their last 10 games, Miami has allowed more than 21 points to only two opponents - the Chiefs and Cardinals. This Dolphins’ defense has hit the “trifecta,” ranking 1st in the league in scoring (18.4 PPG allowed), takeaways (26) & 3rd down percentage (32.5%). Not only do the Raiders have an injured starting QB, but RB Josh Jacobs has averaged just 3.0 YPC since Week 10. But giving the home team a sliver of hope is the fact Miami has scored 22 points or less in four of its last five games. Tua Tagovailoa is still a rookie QB playing on the road. So look for this game to snap a 6-0 Over run in head to head meetings between these teams. 9* Under Dolphins/Raiders

10* San Francisco (4:30 ET): After “striking gold” as NFC Champs a season ago, the 49ers’ fortunes quickly soured in 2020. Injuries piled up early on, leaving them depleted on both sides of the ball. The end result is a 5-9 SU record and they are down to third string QB CJ Beathard as they get ready to face the Cardinals this week (Saturday). Arizona is a place the Niners should be quite familiar with at this point; it’s where they’ve been playing their “home games” due to local COVID-19 restrictions. While they’ve yet to win here (0-2), playing in the same stadium for the third time in four weeks is a bit of a “hidden advantage.” So I’m actually taking the points here.

Both the 49ers and Cardinals scored 33 points last week and put up a ton of yards. The 49ers gained 458 against the Cowboys while the Cards finished with 526 against the Eagles. Interestingly, both also lost the turnover battle pretty badly (49ers -4, Cardinals -3). But while San Fran lost by 8, Arizona still managed to win by 7. That’s pretty much the way it’s gone for these two teams in 2020 as the Cardinals are now ascending in the NFC West. They need this game to move closer to their first playoff berth in five years. Meanwhile, there’s a very good chance the 49ers could be the only team in the division NOT to make the playoffs this year. 

While it’s “must win”, I feel Arizona is a little overvalued here. While they’ve had success against the 49ers in the past, including a 24-20 win back in Week 1, they’ve also been the underdog in each of the L5 meetings. When favored this year, the Cardinals are just 3-7 ATS with five outright losses.The 49ers really should have beaten Dallas last week (were +167 in total yards) but two early TO’s dug them into a 14-0 hole and they also allowed a kick return for TD. In relief, Beathard actually played pretty well, leading two scoring drives. Having outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis this season, the Niners are better than their record. They were actually favored each of the L3 wks, not to mention were -7 vs. Arizona in Wk 1. Good value here. 10* San Francisco.

10* Under Oakland/Detroit (4:00 ET): Both of these Horizon League squads are pretty bad defensively, but they should get a much welcome “reprieve” by facing each other. I say that because - as bad as both Oakland and Detroit may be defensively, they seem to even worse shooting the ball. Oakland, who is an ugly 0-9 SU, has shot just 35.4% from the floor so far and 29.0% from three-point range. Yet all but one of their games (the 2nd one) has gone Over the total! That streak should end Saturday afternoon. 

Detroit is no better when it comes to shooting the basketball. They are making only 38.5% of their FG attempts so far, including an unsightly 28.9% from 3-point range. The Titans just allowed an average of 89 PPG in a pair of home losses to Wright State. Both of those games went Over the total. Again though, their defense is going to get a major break here in facing one of the worst teams in the entire country. The most points Detroit has scored in a game this season is 76 and this is the highest O/U line for any game to date. 

Same for Oakland, whose previous high O/U line was 148.5 against Michigan State. They played Detroit twice last season and while both of those games went Over, the final point totals were 141 and 147, both of which would be UNDERS in this scenario. Oddsmakers have adjusted too much in the wake of all the poor defensive efforts these teams have delivered in the early part of the season. Again, neither is shooting the ball well and that means I am going Under on a very high total. 10* Under Oakland/Detroit

10* Over Chelsea/Arsenal (12:30 ET): Chelsea heads into matchweek 15 knowing that three points could get them right back in the top four of the Premier League table. The Blues actually own the EPL’s second best goal differential this season (+15) and I don’t think there’s much argument that they have been one of the better clubs. Monday’s convincing 3-0 win over West Ham put to rest a two-game losing streak and I don’t think they’re going to have much difficulty scoring here against a struggling Arsenal side. 

Having collected just 14 points from their 14 matches, Arsenal is off to its worst Premier League start in 46 years. They currently sit 15th in the table and are only four points clear of the relegation zone. Their last win came all the way back on November 1st and since then it’s been five losses and two draws on the domestic front. Not even “home cooking” has done them much good as they’ve collected just seven points from seven matches here at Emirates Stadium, the fifth worst home record of any Premier League side. 

On average, Arsenal’s matches have been the lowest-scoring in the EPL this season with just 30 combined goals scored. Only Burnley and hideous Sheffield United have notched a fewer number of goals than the Gunners’ 12. But here comes Chelsea to save the day as the Blues are #2 in the league in scoring (29 goals), trailing only Liverpool. Arsenal did just concede four times to Man City Tuesday as they exited the EFL Cup, so maybe that’s a sign of things to come. Each of the last four fixtures between these two sides have produced at least three goals. Two Chelsea defenders are doubtful. 10* Over Chelsea/Arsenal

10* Over Clippers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): Think revenge might be on the Clippers’ mind here? Back in September, they were shockingly eliminated from the Western Conference semifinals - in 7 games - by the Nuggets. That series saw the Clips blow a 3-1 series advantage. It was one of the more improbable playoff runs as Denver had also come back from a 3-1 series deficit to oust Utah in the first round. I have the Nuggets regressing (in terms of wins & losses) this season, so I was not shocked that they dropped their opening game.

I certainly considered the Clippers in this spot, given the revenge angle. But I don’t like the idea of laying points, no matter how few, in Denver. The Clippers are also coming off an emotional win over the Lakers in the opener. I took the Over in that game, which panned out, as the 116-109 final snuck Over the closing number of 219.5. It was a really strong effort from the Clips, who raced out to a 39-19 lead after the 1st quarter. As much as they’d like to “stick it” to Denver here, not sure they can replicate that first game performance - on both ends.

No game in that 7-game Western Conference semifinal series went Over. There were five Unders and two pushes. But not only did the Clippers’ 1st game go Over, so did the Nuggets’. Overtime obviously helped with the Denver game (was a 124-122 final), but it was also 112-112 at the end of regulation with Sacramento. Expect the Nuggets to shoot better from three-point range than they did vs. the Kings when they connected on only 8 of 27 attempts. Both of these teams can score in bunches and WILL on Christmas night. 10* Over Clippers/Nuggets

8* Dallas (8:05 ET): It was a poor shooting night for Dallas in the opener as they made only 42.4% of their field goal attempts and were a woeful 9 of 37 from three-point range. Yet they only lost by four on the road to the Suns. I’m pretty high on the Mavs this year, feeling that they should finish third in the West (behind the two LA teams). They really underperformed last year considering they did finish 3rd (in the West) in point differential and led the entire league in offensive efficiency. Bottom line: I expect them to win more games this season. 

The Lakers are at a severe disadvantage at the start of the season, seeing as they’ve had just 71 days off since winning the NBA Finals in October. It showed in the opener as they were blitzed out of the gate by the Clippers, falling behind 39-19 at the end of the 1st quarter. While they quickly rallied to turn it into a competitive contest, the Lakers never led and ended up losing 116-109 as a two-point favorite. Personally, I cashed the Over.

Dallas has to be getting sick of these close losses. They were a league-worst 2-11 SU in games decided by three points or less, prior to the season being suspended last year. They then suffered three more losses by 4 pts or less in the bubble. I expect some of those close losses to “become” wins this year. Throw in the fact they are likely to shoot the ball much better than they did in the opener and I see a live dog Christmas night. The Mavs should also start to improve defensively with Josh Richardson on board. They had the 4th most road wins (23) in the league last season. LeBron rolled his ankle in the opener.  Take the points. 8* Dallas

10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Though last week’s 33-27 upset loss to the Bears (at home) effectively ended any chance they have to make the playoffs, I think there’s actually quite a bit to like about this Minnesota team moving forward (expect a bounce back in 2021). Yes, I know they are 0-5 ATS their L5 games. But four of those games have been decided by 6 pts or less. The only one that wasn’t, a 26-14 loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago, saw them take an early lead. With New Orleans suddenly struggling (also off B2B losses), this feels like it will be closer than experts think. Half of the Saints’ victories this season have come by 6 pts or less. 

The Saints defense, which had a historically great 5-game stretch, has suddenly “sprung a leak.” Yes, they had to face Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City last week. But what about the week before when they got to go against a rookie QB making his 1st career start? Jalen Hurts and the Eagles not only scored 24 points in a shocking upset, but they also ran for 246 yards. In case you needed to be reminded, the Vikings have Dalvin Cook, the league’s leading rusher. The Saints’ D also allowed 179 yards rushing vs. the Chiefs. Overall, this Vikings offense averages a really solid 6.3 yards per play. They’ve scored 27+ pts five of the last seven weeks. They should put plenty of points on the board again here. 

Historically, Minnesota does well in this spot. The spot being “off B2B losses.” They are 3-0 ATS in that role this season and 6-0 ATS the L3 seasons! They’ve won five of those six games outright. Let us not forget that Minnesota came here to the Superdome in January and won outright, 26-20 with an almost identical pointspread. Drew Brees didn’t look like himself last week (returned too early?) and New Orleans is a lousy 1-5 ATS the last six times they’ve been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 pts. Take the points. 10* Minnesota

10* Marshall (2:30 ET): To quote the Hives “Hate to Say I Told You So,” (Buffalo fans). Last Friday I faded the heavily favored Bulls in the MAC Championship Game (-14 vs. Ball State), noting just how soft a schedule it had been for a team that came in at 5-0 SU. When 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I think an unbeaten record should be taken with a “grain of salt.” Sure enough, as I predicted Buffalo was not infallible. They lost outright to Ball State, 38-28, a result even better than I could have imagined. Motivation may now be an issue for the Bulls playing just one week later. 

I said the same thing about Marshall when I successfully faded them last Friday. The Thundering Herd just had their own unbeaten run (7-0) ended two weeks earlier with a shocking loss to Rice. I said that would greatly affect their motivation in the C-USA Champ Game (vs. UAB) where they were favored. They suffered the same fate as Buffalo did, losing outright. In their case, it had to do with an offense that could not get on track for a second straight game. After five turnovers led to a shutout loss to Rice (stunning!), the Herd could only manage 268 total yards against UAB. 

So after successful fades of both teams exactly one week ago, who do I go with in the Camellia Bowl? Well, this game likely comes down to Marshall’s excellent rush defense stopping Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson. Fortunately for them, Patterson suffered a knee injury LW vs. Ball State. The Bulls offense really slowed down after that injury. While “likely” to play here, he won’t be 100% effective, especially against a defense giving up only 2.7 yards per carry. A Buffalo defense that’s given up 30+ in half of its games should be the “elixir” for the Marshall offense. The Thundering Herd have had FAR more success in bowl games than Buffalo, so take the points here. 10* Marshall

10* Washington (7:35 ET): The Wizards probably shouldn’t have even been invited to the “bubble” back in July, but I suppose the NBA wanted to create the illusion of some sort of drama in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Things didn’t go well for the Wiz down in Orlando as they went a pretty miserable 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS), the lone SU win coming in a completely meaningless final game vs. Boston. On the flip side, the opportunity to play those games in the bubble did allow for Washington’s younger players to gain valuable time to develop. 

The Wizards team that will take the floor tonight won’t resemble what we saw a few months ago. Not only is Bradley Beal back (career-high 30.5 PPG LY) after he sat out the bubble, the team went out and traded for Russell Westbrook. That’s an obvious upgrade from John Wall, who they sent to Houston in the trade for Westbrook. Washington now has one of the best backcourts in the entire league, even if there’s some logistical hurdles to clear. The Wizards were not a good defensive team for much of last year, but did improve to 11th in efficiency from the time they traded away Isaiah Thomas until lockdown. 

Philadelphia was a dominant 29-2 SU on its home floor last season, but without the benefit of any home court advantage really limped to the finish after the restart. They were swept in the 1st round of the playoffs (by Boston), resulting in a coaching change (Doc Rivers now calling the shots). While this team definitely has plenty of talent, I feel they are coming into the season overvalued. Some of that is the home record from last season. Winning by what the oddsmakers are calling for here on Opening Night seems like a challenge too tall with their offensive flaws. Take the points. 10* Washington

10* Ohio State (4:30 ET): We’ve got a Top 25 matchup Wednesday afternoon in Columbus with #23 Ohio State hosting #11 Rutgers. My view is that these teams are much closer than those rankings indicate with the Buckeyes probably being better. So I see Rutgers’ (6-0) unbeaten run coming to an end here. The Scarlet Knights have managed to win two straight as underdogs, but the third time WON’T be the charm here as three consecutive SU dog wins is a difficult thing to pull off. Lay the very short number. 

Ohio State won 77-70 against UCLA its last time out. It was technically a “neutral court game,” though being in Cleveland, it was obviously an edge to the Buckeyes. Still they came in as 2-pt underdogs, so it was a nice win. It was also much-needed after a loss at Purdue last week and a less than stellar showing here at home vs. a terrible Cleveland State side 10 days ago (OSU won by only six). That being said, the Buckeyes are a top 10 team in offensive efficiency right now and 20-8 ATS their L28 home games. They’ve outscored visiting teams by 19 PPG this season in Columbus. 

Everyone’s going to lose at least one game this season and this just seems like a very logical spot for Rutgers to fall for the first time in 2020. The win over Illinois on Sunday was impressive, but also came at home. The Scarlet Knights had to overcome a DD deficit in the 1st half and 54% Illini shooting to get the 91-88 victory. I don’t think they can count on scoring that much on the road. Being able to attempt 36 free throws was also huge against Illinois and that’s something that almost certainly will NOT repeat itself Weds afternoon. Ohio State doesn’t turn the ball over much and will pick up its first Big 10 win of the season here. 10* Ohio State

8* Georgia Southern (3:00 ET): Louisiana Tech actually brings a 6-year bowl win streak into this year’s New Orleans Bowl, all those wins coming under current HC Skip Holtz. However, there is little disputing that this is one of the weaker iterations during Holtz’s tenure. As far as this year’s crop of bowl teams go, the Bulldogs are among the very worst. Of their five wins this season, three were against terrible teams and another was a FCS school. The fifth was a 2OT game where they trailed by 14 going into the 4Q. Earlier in the year, they erased a 17-point 2H deficit and won. The bottom line is that this team, which was outscored this season, ought to feel very fortunate to have a 5-4 SU record.

Georgia Southern was probably the best team in the Sun Belt this season after you get beyond the “big three” of Coastal Carolina, Louisiana and Appalachian State. To be clear, this year was the strongest the Sun Belt has been, perhaps ever. The Eagles played all three of those teams tough and its other two losses were by a combined 7 points, both on the road (including 28-27 at Army). It’s really just the opposite of La Tech, who probably should have had a worse regular season record. Ga Southern is definitely “better than 7-5 SU” in my eyes.

This is Georgia Southern’s third straight bowl appearance, so they’re no stranger to the postseason under HC Chad Lunsford. Look for the Eagles’ offense to have plenty of success running the ball in this game as La Tech’s defense has given 330+ yards rushing in two of its last three games. Ga Southern comes in averaging 262 rush yards per game on the season. Louisiana Tech’s offense is just horrible as it averages only 2.8 YPC and 325 total YPG. The Eagles have the edge defensively in this one as well as they allow only 22.3 PPG. La Tech allows 34.3. This one should quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Georgia Southern

10* Atalanta (2:45 ET): I’ll start this Serie A writeup with my semi-regular reminder that this was to be the season where Juventus’ reign of dominance (nine straight league titles) came to an end. The two sides most believed could unseat them were Inter and Atalanta. Inter’s prospects are looking quite good right about now as they stormed to second place in the table, one point behind current pace setters AC Milan. As for Atalanta, they’ve seemingly been “stuck in neutral” most of this campaign and currently sit only 7th. But a thrilling come from behind win against Roma over the weekend seems to have reinvigorated one of European football’s most “exciting” sides.

The 4-1 win over Roma on Sunday harkened back to the form of last season when Atalanta led all of Serie A (by a lot) with 98 goals scored. All four goals on Sunday came in the second half. Having successfully passed through to the Round of 16 in the Champions League, Atalanta can now put more focus on domestic success. Despite the up and down start, they are only three points back of Roma for the coveted 4th spot in the table. They are again among the league leaders in goals scored and are unbeaten in their last five across all competitions. I envision a strong 2021 for the Nerazzurri.

As for Bologna, things aren’t so hot right now. They’ve picked up just two points from the last four Serie A matches and now sit 14th in the table. Things could actually be worse when you consider they have the 4th most losses (7) in the entire league. It wasn’t that long ago they conceded five times in one half to Roma. Given what Atalanta has proven to be capable of recently - beating Liverpool at Anfield, Ajax in Amsterdam and then Roma last week - it should be a bevy of goals this week for the visitors. 10* Atalanta

10* Over Clippers/Lakers (10:05 ET): Doesn’t it feel like the NBA season just ended two months ago? Well, that’s because it DID just end two months ago, with the Lakers taking care of the Heat in the Finals. It will be VERY interesting to see how some of these teams handle the unprecedented short turnaround between seasons. The NBA Champs get the least time off as they open the season Tuesday night against a Clippers team still smarting from a shocking defeat at the hands of Denver in the Conference semis. 

The Lakers arguably got BETTER in the offseason, which sounds scary. Of course, you’ve still got LeBron James and Anthony Davis leading the way. But the big key now is the supporting cast is a whole lot better. You’ve got the likes of Marc Gasol, Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Talen Horton-Tucker backing up the two superstars now. Speaking of superstars, the Clippers return their pair - Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They lost Harrell to the Lakers, but replaced him with Serge Ibaka. The biggest change for the Clips is that Ty Lue replaced Doc Rivers as HC. They will again be a top 2-3 team in the West.

The two LA teams met four times last season and - surprisingly - all four games stayed Under the total. I’m predicting a different outcome this time as the Lakers seem poised to be a lot more dynamic this year when James and Davis exit the court. I hardly expect “lockdown defense” in the first game of the season. The Clippers averaged 116 PPG LY while the Lakers weren’t far behind at 113.3. Strangely, neither side hit their season average in any of the four meetings LY. Things will be different this time. 10* Over Clippers/Lakers

10* Under Purdue/Iowa (9:00 ET): Iowa is 7-0 Over this season and 3-0 Over its L3 games vs. Purdue. So this is most definitely a “contrarian” type play Tuesday as we look to buck those aforementioned trends. One more thing - Iowa comes in averaging an astonishing 98.7 PPG. They just suffered their 1st loss of the season, 99-88 to Gonzaga on Saturday. But in the face of all that info, I’m still going Under here in the Big 10 opener as there’s simply no way those types of numbers can be sustained. 

The 88 points scored in the Gonzaga loss were actually the FEWEST by Iowa in a game this season! But let’s keep in mind that they’ve been able to “run up the score” against some bad teams thus far. Defensively, the Hawkeyes are far from “elite,” but they are holding opponents to just 68.5 PPG on 38.9% shooting here in Iowa City. Again, they’ve hosted some weak teams, but they’re doing a solid job at defending the three-point line plus opponents are shooting just 40.8% overall for the season, even after Gonzaga went 36 of 70. 

To put Iowa’s 7-0 Over run to start the season in its proper perspective, note there are only two other teams in the country that are 5-0 Over or “better.” Purdue comes in off an 88-78 win over Notre Dame, so they’ve done some scoring too, but I just can’t see it continuing like this. The Boilermakers are 3-0 Under as road dogs of 6.5 to 9 points the previous two seasons. Iowa has some serious revenge to exact here as they’ve lost four straight times to Purdue. They’ll be looking to play some defense. 10* Under Purdue/Iowa

10* Tulane (3:30 ET): Of the 28 bowl games scheduled for 2020-21, this is the one where the line jumped out to me the most. I feel this number is WAY off as a Tulane team that my power ratings respect quite a bit should comfortably win this game by double digits. Both teams are in a bowl for the third consecutive year with Green Wave having won its prior two while Nevada lost LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 30-21 to Ohio U. My power ratings haven’t liked the Wolf Pack all season and the way they finished the regular season really seemed to confirm that skepticism. Lay the points!

Nevada started 5-0 (SU), but three of those five wins came by seven points or less. Also, they got to face three of the worst teams in the country - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - all in a row. It was when the Wolf Pack traveled to face Hawai (11/28) that I finally jumped in to fade. Sure enough, that ended up being an outright loss for Nevada (24-21 as 7.5-pt chalk) and a win for me. The following week, the Wolf Pack were very fortunate to beat Fresno State 37-26 as they gave up 600 total yards in the contest. They gave up 500 more to San Jose State the next week while the offense was shut out in the 2H. So it’s been almost a month since they played a “good game.” 

 You may recall that I played against Nevada in LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and it was one of my stronger selections of the entire bowl season. The Wolf Pack have now lost 12 consecutive games at Albertsons Stadium (0-9 vs. Boise St, 0-3 in bowls), so do not be worried about any “geographical disadvantage” here for Tulane. The Green Wave, who are looking for a third straight 7-win season under Willie Fritz, are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS as favorites this season and 17-4/14-7 in that role L3 seasons. They easily could have had a better regular season record, but lost three games in which they held a DD lead plus lost in OT to SMU. A 35-21 win over Memphis was a strong way to close the regular season. There’s tremendous depth at running back here and the defense led the AAC in sacks. 10* Tulane

10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:15 ET): Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite Monday night despite B2B losses, both of which came in primetime games. But let’s not be too quick to forget this team was 11-0 SU before having to endure three professional football games in a 12-day span. That, more than anything else, is what “caught up to them” and caused them to drop two in a row. Tonight has all the makings of a “get well” game for the Black & Gold, especially on the offensive side of the ball as the Bengals defense they face tonight just allowed a 122.6 passer rating to backup QB Andy Dalton. Dallas, a bad team, scored 30 in that game. 

Normally, I’d be “all over” a double digit dog in primetime, but the Bengals seem a bit “untouchable” right now, especially with Ryan Finley now set to start at QB. Finley is the third different starting QB for the Bengals in the last five games. Joe Burrow’s injury effectively ended this team’s season as it’s been all downhill ever since. Cincinnati has lost five in a row, a streak that started against the Steelers. Burrow was hurt the following week and the Bengals have managed only three offensive touchdowns since. The defense had been okay, but then came the aforementioned effort last week vs. Dallas, a sign this game has the potential to get pretty ugly. 

This is one of the lowest totals you’ll see the entire NFL season. When the teams met five weeks ago, the O/U line was 45 and the game went Over as Pittsburgh won 36-10. A similar final score could be on tap tonight. The Bengals’ offense actually did move the ball a bit last week, only to fumble it away on each of the opening three possessions. But tonight is all about the Steelers’ offense getting back on track. As we saw in the 1st meeting, they could possibly come close to sending this one Over themselves. Cincy will give enough help to get it past the “finish line” as both teams end 4-game Under streaks. The Over is 5-0 in the Bengals’ L5 home games vs. a team w/ a winning road record. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals

8* Under St. Josephs/Tennessee (6:00 ET): St. Joe’s has played a murderous schedule thus far and things get no easier here as they pay a visit to Knoxville to face #10 Tennessee. So far, the Hawks have faced Auburn, Kansas and Villanova. Throw in a 81-77 loss to Drexel and it’s an 0-4 SU start with every game going Over the total. They’ve given up 81 points or more in every game. Do note, however, that one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) did go to overtime.

Tennessee hasn’t given up more than 56 in any of its four games and thus it’s been a pretty easy 4-0 start for them. They’d actually gone Under in three straight to start the season before shooting a blistering 58.3% from the floor against Tennessee Tech over the weekend, including 47.4% from three-point range. Six players were in double figures as the team produced its 8th largest MOV (54 points) in program history. They scored 103 points, which is something you just don’t see much in College Hoops. Of course, you have to consider the opponent. 

With UT not having allowed more than 56 points in any game so far, I have to think this is where St. Joe’s Over streak comes to an end. Assuming we get the “usual brand” of Volunteer defense, that would require them also scoring 90+ (to send this one Over) and I just don’t see that happening. Playing a second game in four days, it’s going to be next to impossible to replicate the shooting we saw vs. Tenn Tech. None of the Vols’ first three games saw more than 121 total pts scored and this is easily the highest O/U line for any of their games to date. St. Joe’s hasn’t shot well this season and the Under is 7-1 when they face a SEC team. The Under is also on a 25-12 run here in Knoxville and the Vols are allowing just 32.9% shooting YTD. 8* Under St. Joseph’s/Tennessee

10* Minnesota (8:30 ET): There are only 11 teams in the country that have won at least six games without a loss. St. Louis is one of them and perhaps even more impressive is the fact the Billikens have covered the spread in all six games as well. They’ve got two wins against “Power 5” teams (LSU, NC State), but are about to hit the road for the first time tonight against Minnesota. I like the fact St. Louis is favored in this one as it’s a great time to fade a team I didn’t really expect to still be undefeated. Take the points. 

Minnesota also began its season 6-0 SU. But the Golden Gophers just tasted defeat for the 1st time on Tuesday, getting blown out 95-62 by #13 Illinois. I think we all know that the Illini are one of the top teams in the country, so I’m not at all discouraged by that loss from the Gophers. It was on the road (their first road game) and they shot very poorly (27.5 FG%). Back at home, I expect Minnesota to be back in the 80s-90s (in terms of points scored), like we saw in the majority of their first six games this season. 

I think it’s a little telling that St. Louis isn’t even ranked despite its perfect record. Considering they just played two games in three days, with NC State a last minute addition to the schedule, this seems like the point where the inevitability of losing a game catches up with them. They trailed NC State at the half. This will now be their third game in six days. 10* Minnesota

10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): Despite losing Monday night, the Browns remain tremendously overvalued in the marketplace. Yes, there is some uncertainty with the Giants’ QB situation as they may have to turn to Colt McCoy (a former Brown!) for this Sunday night game. But remember it was McCoy who helped engineer the shocking upset in Seattle two weeks ago. Calling the plays for the G-Men will be former Browns’ HC Freddie Kitchens. So there’s going to be PLENTY of motivation on that home sideline this week, in addition to the fact the Giants are trying to win the NFC East (currently tied for 1st w/ Washington at 5-7 SU).

Cleveland is 9-4 SU, but six of its wins have been by seven points or less and the schedule has been relatively easy. Ironically, in defeat, they probably played one of their better games on MNF. I think the consensus coming off that wild 47-42 loss to the Ravens is that the Browns are “for real.” But beware of the fact they still have a negative point differential on the season and the defense has given up a total of 82 points the L2 weeks. As a favorite this season, the Browns are 7-1 SU, but just 3-5 ATS. As favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, they are 5-0 SU, but 1-4 ATS. I just don’t this team should be this large of a road favorite.

In fact, my own power ratings call this game a pick ‘em! The Giants are 8-3 ATS (though only 3-8 SU) as underdogs this season. They were on a 4-game win streak before getting blown out by Arizona (26-7) last week. That singular result seems to have greatly affected this spread and I’m not sure why. The Browns have not won a game by more than six points since October 11th. During that 4-game win streak, the G-Men were giving up an average of just 16.5 PPG. The 26 pts they allowed last week were the most in any game since Week 5. They’ve allowed more than 26 only twice all season. Take the points. 10* NY Giants

8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The Chiefs are living dangerously. They’ve won five consecutive one score games, but have not covered the spread in any of them. This reminds me of last year’s Super Bowl run where they fell behind by double digits in every playoff game, only to come out ahead every time. Of course, the difference is that they covered the spread in all those games. Normally, I might see a 5-game ATS losing streak as a time to “buy low,” but being a road favorite against the Saints seems to be the antithesis of “buying low.” Rather it’s the other side I want to invest in as this seems to be a steal.

For the record, New Orleans was going to be an underdog in this game even before they were upset last week in Philadelphia. That shocking defeat to an Eagles team starting a rookie QB (1st career start) hasn’t seemed to affect this line much. Surprisingly, as of press time at least, nor has the impending return of Drew Brees. I just think this is an incredible value on a Saints team - with or without Brees in the lineup. They’d won nine in a row prior to last week and were widely considered to be the best team in the NFC. The Saints are 8-1 SU and ATS as underdogs since 2018 including a 38-3 win at Tampa Bay last month. That was the only time New Orleans has been a dog in 2020. 

Even with Taysom Hill as the starter, I would have loved this line. But now it’s the HOF Brees under center. We’re also getting arguably the league’s best defense. If there’s one defense I’d trust to slow down Patrick Mahomes, it would be this one as the Saints are allowing just 20.4 PPG this year. Going into last week’s game vs. Philly (where I cashed the Over), the Saints had allowed just two offensive touchdowns in their past five games. It’s almost unheard of to be getting a Brees-led Saints team as a home underdog. Take the points. 8* New Orleans

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Atlanta has been a home dog only two other times this season. I took them the first time around and that ended up being a 43-6 thrashing of Las Vegas, their best performance of the 2020 season. The Dirty Birds weren’t as fortunate the following week (+3 in a 21-16 loss), but that was against the Saints. Tampa Bay is closer to New Orleans than they are to Las Vegas in terms of talent, but still I don’t see how Tom Brady and the Bucs deserve to be favored by more in Atlanta than New Orleans was. The current line is much higher than the look ahead line was and I’m seeing value on the Falcons here. 

The Bucs got a late season bye and really needed it as they were off B2B losses heading into LW’s game vs. Minnesota. The week off seemed to do them some good as they beat the Vikings 26-14 as six-point favorites. However, they were actually outgained in the contest (335-303) and had 10 fewer first downs than Minnesota. A potential major problem for TB this week is that all three specialists (kicker, punter, long-snapper) are on the COVID-19 list. Special teams miscues often end up costing a team wins (just ask the Chargers!) and don’t be surprised if the Bucs make one on Sunday. Also, the Bucs’ starting left tackle (Donovan Smith) won’t play here and RB Ronald Jones is questionable.

A few things to keep in mind with the Falcons here. One is that despite a 4-9 SU record, they have actually outscored their opponents this season! Matt Ryan is 15-7 ATS all-time as a home dog. Interim HC Raheem Morris probably wants to keep this job on a permanent basis, so I don’t see this team quitting. They could have beaten the Chargers last week if not for TWO late Ryan interceptions. Atlanta is 4-4 SU under Morris. Take the points. 8* Atlanta

9* Miami (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. 

This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams. 

So much has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB and he’s led his team to a 4-2 WL record. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU/ATS as favorites this season and now they get to play host. The Patriots are just 2-5 SU/ATS on the road and one of those SU wins was by three against the Jets. I know all about Belchick’s record vs. rookie QBs (11-0 since 2012), but this isn’t the same NE team. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records and the Patriots are 0-3 ATS when playing with more than six days off between games. So much for rest. Miami is better and deserves to be favored. 9* Miami

8* Over Patriots/Dolphins (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. 

This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams.

A lot has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB. Belichick has won 11 straight against rookie QBs, but don’t be surprised when the Dolphins have far more success on the offensive side of the ball here than they did in that first meeting. They put up 27 points last week vs. Kansas City. Of course, they also gave up 33 (despite forcing four turnovers). The Patriots figure to run the ball a lot here as they were successful doing so (217 yards) back in Week 1. This is a really low O/U and I see the Pats’ 5-game Under run coming to an end. 8* Over Patriots/Dolphins

8* Washington (1:00 ET): So Washington is forced to start Dwayne Haskins this week as Alex Smith is injured. That’s a bit of a bummer for a team that has really come into its own of late with four consecutive wins and covers. I believe this is the team that will win the moribund NFC East. Were Smith starting here, I would make Washington the favorite here. They beat Pittsburgh (who was unbeaten at the time) on the road two weeks ago and it’s not like Seattle is immune from a shocking loss. Two weeks ago, they fell at home to the Giants, 17-12 as 12.5-point chalk. 

The Seahawks rebounded from that upset loss by smashing the Jets 40-3 last week. But that doesn’t really affect our view of Russell Wilson and company. Everybody beats the Jets. As good as Wilson and the Seahawks’ defense has looked this season, they’re up against a defense that’s allowed a total of just 57 points the last four games. That’s just over 14.0 per game as rookie Chase Young has looked phenomenal of late for the Football team. Seattle’s RT Brandon Snell has been in and out of the lineup recently, so protecting Wilson could be an issue here. 

Washington’s offense actually gained less than 200 total yards last week, but they still won 23-15 against San Francisco. While not a “true” road win (was played in Arizona), they’ll take it. Seattle is just 3-3 SU on the road this season and almost all of their games (save for LW) end up being close. Going back to the start of last season, 17 of the Seahawks’ 21 victories have been by one possession! They’ve been outgained this year. The Football Team’s defense will carry Haskins and keep this one closer than expected. The Seahawks have failed to cover four straight road games and are 0-3 ATS L3 as a road favorite. 8* Washington

10* Under Neal/Thompson (9:15 ET): The main event of this Saturday’s UFC card is a welterweight bout (170 lbs), scheduled for five rounds, between contenders Geoff Neal and Stephen Thompson. Even though Neal is lower ranked within the division (#11 as opposed to #5 for Thompson), he checks in as the slight favorite as of press time (Thursday afternoon). In taking the Under, I’m obviously calling for a finish in this fight and because it’s a five-round affair (as opposed to three), I like those odds. 

Neal is 5-0 in the UFC and 13-2 overall in his career. This main event opportunity is being viewed as a chance for him to make a “statement” at 170 lbs. He has certainly had a tough 2020 outside of the Octagon. Health issues have rendered him inactive for the entire year and even before that he had to return to his day job because of a lack of opportunities to fight. But when he’s gotten inside the cage, Neal has been magic. All but one of his five UFC wins have come via stoppage and all those ended no later than early in the second round. Going back further, Neal has had only three fights (out of 15) go to decision and two of them were before 2015. 

Thompson has been around for a while now, having made his UFC debut back in 2012. He’s even got a couple of title opportunities, though he failed both times. There have been some boring decisions on his resume for sure, and his fights have gone to the judges more often than not lately. However, with Neal’s punching power, Thompson could very well be knocked out at any point here. On the flip side, Neal’s long layoff could have him coming out rusty and cost him the fight early. Either way, I’ll take it as I look for one of these fighters to finish the other off inside of 4.5 rounds Saturday night. 10* Under Neal/Thompson

8* Florida (8:00 ET): Fading Florida proved quite fruitful for me last week as the Gators went out and lost outright (as 23.5-point favorites) to LSU. Blame the ill-timed throwing of the shoe all you want, but it was not a great all-around effort by Dan Mullen’s team and the loss definitely took some of the “shine” off the SEC Championship Game vs. Alabama. But that’s precisely how I like it! Now, no one is giving Florida a chance, despite the fact they are the #7 ranked team in the country and their two losses this year have been by a combined six points. While I don’t anticipate another outright win here, I am definitely taking the points. 

Now we ought to give Alabama their due. The top-ranked Crimson Tide mowed their way through the regular season, winning all 10 games by an average of almost 33 PPG. Lost in the middle of the pandemic is the fact this team is probably one of Nick Saban’s most dominant EVER at Tuscaloosa. But this is a LOT of points to be laying when you’re facing a good team and everybody expects you to win. Florida has been an underdog only one other time this season and it was when they annihilated Georgia (on a neutral field) 44-28. The Gators have put up at least 31 points in every game this season. 

Furthermore, Florida is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS off an SEC loss under Mullen. I mentioned a similar trend for LSU under Ed Orgeron last week. Look, there’s probably nothing I can say to convince you that the Gators have a chance of winning this game. But they certainly can keep it close. Other than Texas A&M, who they faced early in the season and at home, Bama played a fairly weak SEC schedule. After so many covers in a row (7-0 ATS L7), isn’t at least one close game in store? Both of Bama’s non-covers came away from home this year. They haven’t faced Florida since the 2016 SEC Title Game and Heisman frontrunner Kyle Trask is good enough to keep this one within striking distance. 8* Florida

10* Denver (4:30 ET): I have to concede that the Broncos are NOT one of my favorite teams this season. They are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year and they’ve got the 5th worst point differential. Only the Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars and Jets - who are a collective 7-44-1 SU - have been outscored by a larger margin this season. That being said, this would seem like a prime opportunity to “sell high” on the Bills as they are coming off a win over the Steelers and 5-0 ATS their L5 games. Despite that ATS win streak, my power rankings indicate this line should be +3.5. 

I was NOT as high on Buffalo as most were coming into this season. I’ll admit that I was wrong in that regard as this very much looks like a legit contender in the AFC right now. But in terms of point differential, the Bills remain outside the top ten (in the league) and have benefited by going 5-1 SU in one-score games. They still don’t really have the statistical profile you’d expect from a 10-3 team. What they have done is handle their business at home (5-0 SU when favored). But on the road, they are just 1-3 ATS when favored.

The Broncos are 0-6 ATS against the Bills since 2007, but this is the first time they’ll face them with Drew Lock as the starting QB. Lock is 10-5 ATS in his NFL career, leading Denver to cash in each of his L3 starts. After leading a near upset of Kansas City two weeks ago, Lock had his best game as a pro vs. Carolina last week as he had a 4-0 TD-INT ratio in the 32-27 victory. This team is simply much better with Lock under center. I know the Denver defense has some serious issues at CB right now, but they remain #1 in the league in red zone efficiency and should stymie Buffalo enough to keep this one within the number. 10* Denver

9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame (4:00 ET): These teams combined for 87 points in the first meeting and this time Clemson will have Trevor Lawrence playing QB. So everyone is going to be expecting plenty of points in the ACC Championship Game between #2 Notre Dame and #3 Clemson. But don’t discount what both defenses are capable of doing here. Interestingly, Lawrence’s presence on the field for this rematch seems to be worth only a couple points to the spread (Clemson was -5 in South Bend), but the total is NINE points higher than the closing number from last month. I see lots of value on the Under in this one.

Since Lawrence returned to the field, Clemson has rolled to victories over Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. The Clemson offense put up 97 points in those two wins, but equally impressive is the fact the defense allowed just 27 total. Though Notre Dame was able to put up 47 (in overtime, remember), the Tigers are still allowing only 18.3 PPG for the season and remain an elite unit on that side of the ball. This is also their second look at the Notre Dame offense and I believe they’ll be better prepared to stop Ian Book and company. The Tigers weren’t just missing Lawrence last month, they were w/o three top defensive players including the most important (James Skalski), all of whom are back now. 

 What Notre Dame’s defense did against North Carolina a couple weeks ago may have been among the most impressive performances I’ve seen all season. Holding the Tar Heels to just 17 points and under 300 yards really is a “Herculean achievement” if I do say so myself. The Fighting Irish defense has been even stingier than Clemson’s this season, giving up only 17.1 PPG. There have been only three games this season where ND has allowed more than 21 points. They held Clemson RB Travis Etienne to just 28 yards on 18 carries in the first meeting. Remember that OT added 21 points to that final score in South Bend. The game was “only” 33-33 at the end of regulation. 9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame

10* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): It was back on October 10th that I wrote the following: “The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward.” It was time to fade the Bulldogs that day and sure enough they lost 24-2 to Kentucky. It’s been all downhill since in Starkville with the only victory coming against perennial SEC pasty Vanderbilt (who has fired its HC). Mike Leach’s first season is guaranteed to be a losing one (2-7 SU/3-6 ATS entering Saturday), but I would caution about writing them off Saturday at home vs. Missouri. 

Missouri was actually ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings last week, which I found to be quite curious. The Tigers barely crack my own Top 50 and sure enough they went out and got whipped 49-14 by Georgia last week. Now that’s a good team Mizzou was up against, but that’s precisely the point. The Tigers’ “best” win this season was probably LSU, same as Mississippi State. They have more wins than the Bulldogs, but (like Miss St) the only dominant one was against Vandy. Three have been by seven points or less. 

Mississippi State has had all sorts of problems on offense this year, but facing a Mizzou defense that has given up 35 or more points six times this season might be “what the doctor ordered.” The last two weeks have seen the Tigers give up a total of 97 points! Up front, the Mizzou defense has been decimated by injuries.While they did win the only other time they were road favorites, that was against a South Carolina team (17-10) playing for a lame duck head coach. This is the first time in four games that the Tigers are playing away from home. They’ve yet to score more than 17 in any of their three previous road games. 10* Mississippi State

8* Washington State (1:30 ET): In any other College Football season, a matchup like this would likely go a long way in determining bowl assignments. But as you know, 2020 has been no normal year. There seems to be no shortage of “breaking news” these days in this sport, and on Friday, Utah announced that they would not be accepting any bowl bids. Washington State has already indicated the same thing. Thus, this will likely be the last time we see either of these teams this year. Utah laying double digits in a game where they may not be all that motivated seems highly questionable. I’ll take the points. 

Utah started out 0-2, but actually played pretty well in losing efforts vs. USC and Washington. They blew a 21-point lead against the latter. Turning the ball over a total of nine times in those two games also played a large role in losing. So I’m not surprised to see that the Utes have turned things around some with B2B wins, against Oregon State and Colorado. But they did get to face OSU w/o its star RB and starting QB. That seems like a pretty big advantage, yet the Utes won by only six in a game they returned a punt for a touchdown. Last week at Colorado, they trailed by 11 in the first half before turning it on after halftime for a 38-21 win and cover. 

Washington State has only gotten to take the field a total of three times this season. Last week’s game vs. Stanford was called off 90 minutes before kickoff. So the Cougars’ only game in the last month was an ugly 38-13 loss at USC, which was actually played on a Sunday. QB Jayden de Laura, who looked very sharp in the team’s first two games, did not play well against USC. I expect him to bounce back here. He’s completed 60% of his passes and the Wazzu rushing attack could be a lot better if Max Borghi is able to finally suit up. His replacement (Deon McIntosh) hasn’t been too shabby either, averaging 6.5 YPC vs. USC. 8* Washington State

8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): Texas A&M certainly has a lot at stake here. Currently #5 in the CFP rankings, the Aggies are first in line to move up if any of the top four stumble. If #2 Notre Dame were to defeat #3 Clemson later on Saturday, then the Tigers would almost certainly fall from the top four (would be their 2nd loss to ND). So the world is going to be on A&M here in Knoxville with the belief that “style points” matter. They really don’t though and a “dirty little secret” is that the Aggies have just ONE win by more than 13 points all season and that was against a South Carolina team that was eight days away from firing its HC. 

Two weeks ago, Tennessee gave me a nice win here at home vs. Florida, sliding right in through the backdoor. Though they were pretty thoroughly outplayed that day, the Volunteers hung in there with one of the better teams in the country. That coupled with last week’s 42-17 beatdown of Vanderbilt (snapped a six-game losing streak) MAY be enough to save HC Jeremy Pruitt’s job, but that’s far from certain. Pruitt definitely cannot afford a blowout loss here in the home finale. The “good news” is that the Vols’ last three losses have all come by 13 points or fewer. 

I know that A&M is perfect as a road favorite (5-0 ATS) under HC Jimbo Fisher and they’ve got something to play for here. But the number is definitely inflated and I’m taking the points. The Aggies have failed to cover all three times they’ve been double digit chalk this season and are a horrific 1-15 ATS off a bye (last week’s game vs. Ole Miss was cancelled). The Aggies’ offense has failed to impress me at times this season and the Tennessee defense has played a lot better of late, especially against the run as they’re giving up only 1.5 YPC the L2 weeks. 8* Tennessee

8* Ball State (7:30 ET): Buffalo put the finishing touches on a perfect 5-0 regular season last Saturday with a 56-7 thrashing of Akron. The Bulls had already been declared MAC East Champs prior to that game, so it’s pretty impressive that they were able to go out and still dominate by such an overwhelming margin. Of course, it helps when you’re facing Akron. That’s kind of my view on Buffalo as a whole in 2020. Their resume looks really impressive, but when you consider they’ve faced Northern Illinois, Miami OH, Bowling Green, Kent St and Akron, 5-0 comes across more as “yeah, that BETTER be their WL record.” 

Ball State has played one more game than Buffalo, but also brings a 5-game win streak into Friday’s MAC Championship Game. The Cardinals lost the season opener to Miami OH (blew a DD lead in the 2H), but has been perfect ever since. While four of those wins were by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog like they are here. Ball State’s regular season schedule was much tougher than Buffalo’s as the last three weeks have seen the Cardinals defeat Toledo, Central Michigan and Western Michigan, two of those games coming on the road. 

The MAC Title Game, as per usual, is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. The conventional wisdom here seems to be that Buffalo is - by far - the best team in the MAC. But when 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I’m not willing to co-sign that. Though Ball State will play without RB Caleb Huntley (opted out), they are more than capable of making a game of this. They have covered six straight as an underdog and I believe Buffalo is overvalued due to getting some national coverage for a 70-point game against Kent State a few weeks ago. Ball State is better than any team Buffalo has faced this season. 8* Ball State

10* UAB (7:00 ET): Though this is the Conference USA Championship Game, it’s hardly a great “spot” for favored Marshall. Two week ago, the “bubble burst” in the Thundering Herd’s unbeaten season and it happened in one of the unlikeliest of ways, a 20-0 home loss to Rice. Ending up as the top “Group of 5” team is no longer in play, so motivation may be an issue here even though it's a Conference Championship Game. UAB is in its third straight C-USA Title Game (won ‘18, lost ‘19) and is arguably the better team here. Take the points. 

 You’ve got two strong defenses here and on what’s going to be a chilly night in Huntington, points are likely to be at a premium. That makes the underdog all the more attractive in this scenario. Remember that Rice was without its starting QB when it upset Marshall. Of course, offense was the bigger issue for the Thundering Herd that day as they were shutout on the scoreboard and turned the ball over five times. It’s notable that a week later UAB beat Rice 21-16.

UAB comes in at 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS. While they’ve been poor at the betting window, there are a couple things to keep in mind. One is that they played a number of games with a backup QB. Starter Tyler Johnston III is now back. Also, two of the Blazers’ three losses this season were by four points or less. The other was at Miami FL in a Thursday night game early in the season. Since then, the defense has allowed more than 24 points in just one game and that came in an OT loss where they blew a 2 TD lead in the 4Q. Not sure home field advantage means much in 2020 and then you’ve got the fact Marshall is just 6-13 ATS its L19 home games. 10* UAB

10* LA Chargers (8:25 ET): From the oddsmakers perspective, the Chargers “should” have a better won-loss record than the Raiders this year. LA has been favored in six games while Las Vegas has been the chalk in only four. The Chargers’ main problem, which is nothing new, has been a failure to win close games. They are just 3-7 SU in games decided by 7 points or less, though they did prevail in one last week 20-17 against Atlanta. While the Bolts have yet to win as an underdog this year and last won a division game in 2018, the close win last week gives me belief they can pull through here. Take the points. 

The Raiders’ recent form has been lousy with their only win in the L4 games coming by three points against the 0-13 Jets. If you recall, I faded them in that spot. They would have lost the game outright had it not been for the ineptitude of (now fired) Jets’ DC Gregg Williams. Speaking of bad defense, the Raiders have given up an average of 37.5 PPG these L4 weeks! Sunday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 40 points and the Colts also rolled up 200+ yards rushing AND passing. The Chargers have one of the league’s better offenses as they are top 10 in total yards and #4 in passing. Unlike the Raiders, the Chargers have outgained their opponents this season. 

The first time these AFC West rivals met very much embodied the kind of season it’s been for LA. They outgained the Raiders 440-320, yet lost on the scoreboard 31-26 when the potential GW TD was overturned. QB Justin Herbert threw for over 300 yards and should do so again here. The Chargers’ YTD point differential is quite comparable to the Raiders despite the disparate records. You have to figure that “elusive” division victory is coming soon for the Chargers and I say “why not here?” as this line should be read as a huge warning signal about the Raiders, who have failed to cover the L2 times they’ve been favored. 10* LA Chargers

10* Texas Tech (7:00 ET): It’s expected to be a very competitive game in Lubbock tonight as #14 Texas Tech hosts #5 Kansas. While KU has played the more challenging schedule of the two, this will be the Jayhawks’ first “true” road game of the season. The season in Lawrence began with a loss to Gonzaga. No shame there, especially with the Jayhawks winning six in a row since that lone loss. Texas Tech is also 6-1 and their only loss was to a very good Houston team on a neutral floor.

Still doesn’t sound like much of an edge either way, right? Well, Kansas has had plenty of close calls during its six-game win streak, winning half those contests by four points or less. Wins over Kentucky, N Dakota St and Creighton have been by a total of eight points. The Jayhawks easily could have lost all three of those games as they trailed in the final minute against both N Dakota St and Creighton and then by nine at the half against a Kentucky team that has otherwise struggled in the early part of the season. 

The majority of Texas Tech’s wins so far have been blowouts as you’d expect given some of the opposition. Maybe that’s why my power rankings “like” the Red Raiders so much. I’ve got them as the higher rated team, safely in the Top 10 while Kansas is outside the Top 10. Kansas’ defense seems to have slipped this season, so I expect Texas Tech to turn around their recent shooting from 3-pt range. The Red Raiders are obviously again one of the nation’s best defensively as they already rank #1 in efficiency. 10* Texas Tech

10* Over Burnley/Aston Villa (1:00 ET): While I actually believe Aston Villa is a bit undervalued here, I prefer the Over. Let’s focus on Burnley, a side that figures to spend much of this campaign fighting off relegation. Their current position in the table is third from the bottom (18th), which would mean relegation. Make no mistake about it. Despite winning last week (1-0 against Arsenal), Burnley is very much one of the EPL’s weakest sides this season. I’m surprised they’ve only been beaten once in their last five tries.

Another interesting thing about Burnley is that their matches have produced the fewest total number of goals in the Premier League. There have been just 24 total goals scored. Some of that is the fact they’ve played only 11 times. They’ve only scored only six goals though. But what we can expect today is for them to concede multiple times. Keep in mind that while there are many sides in the EPL than have conceded more goals than Burnley this season, most of them have played two more matches.

Aston Villa seemed to be in downturn, but then they defeated the rival Wolves last week, 1-0. The West Midlands side had previously lost four of five. A concern for them is they’ve conceded a total of nine times in their last three at home. That suggests there will be some scoring opportunities for Burnley here. But of course Aston Villa will score plenty as well. Despite having played the fewest number of matches (10) in the EPL, they are actually tied for 8th in goals scored. They are averaging 2.1 per match. 10* Over Burnley/Aston Villa

10* Over Samford/Troy (7:00 ET): All of Troy’s games thus far have stayed Under the total. Note that the last game (Central Baptist) did not have a total posted, but considering the final score (61-44), it would have been an Under had a number been posted. But here, the Trojans are finally matched up against an opponent that has no problem putting the ball in the basket. Samford comes in averaging 86.0 PPG on the season and is 41-22 Over its L63 games overall. This one will be high-scoring. Take the Over.

These teams met last season and Samford won 72-60. That was NOT an Over, however Samford shot very well in the win, making over 50% of their shots from three and overall. It was a bad shooting night for Troy, who finished at 32.3% overall and 25.9% from three-point range. Poor shooting has also plagued the Trojans during this 3-3 start as they are at just 34.4% overall from the field and 23.1% from behind the arc. Those are simply hideous numbers and HAVE to improve moving forward. Good thing then that Samford is giving up an average of 78.2 PPG so far.

Samford’s last game, a 79-75 loss to Georgia, did NOT go Over the total. However, dating back to last season, their previous seven games all had. Bulldogs’ games are average 164.2 PPG this season, which is well above the total for tonight’s game. Samford has scored at least 75 in all four games and topped 95 twice. They are a top 25 team in adjusted tempo, which means plenty of possessions and more opportunities to score. Troy is 6-2 Over at home when the total is 145 to 149.5. 10* Over Samford/Troy

8* TCU (7:00 ET): Oklahoma State may have a nice, shiny 6-0 SU record, but they’ve covered the spread just twice and are unranked. That leads me to believe this isn’t a team you should place a ton of faith in moving forward. Tonight looks like a clear opportunity to fade as they open the Big 12 schedule against TCU. The Horned Frogs are now 5-2 SU on the year following an impressive 73-55 win against Texas A&M over the weekend. I would not be surprised if Jamie Dixon’s crew ended the Pokes’ unbeaten run here. Take the points. 

Oklahoma State’s last game was a close call at Wichita State where they won 67-64 as three-point road favorites. That was the Cowboys’ 4th win by eight points or less so far and second straight. They only managed to beat Oral Roberts by five last week here in Stillwater. I’m still not sure we know a ton about OK State right now, but we’re about to learn as they open the conference slate with this game, followed by trips to Texas and Texas Tech. What I can say with confidence is the Pokes won’t be unbeaten for much longer.

TCU hasn’t had much success in Stillwater of late, losing eight of the last nine visits. This is their first true road game of 2020-21. But what we can lean on here is the Horned Frogs’ defense as they’ve given up an average of just 57.3 points in three neutral site games. With this likely to be a low-scoring game and OK State just 1-4 ATS when laying more than five points at the betting window, taking the dog is the way to go here. TCU covered against Oklahoma earlier in the year. 8* TCU

8* Barcelona (3:00 ET): This is what I call a “statement” game for Barcelona, who we all know is a far better side than their current 10th place standing in the La Liga table. Not only is that statement backed up by reputation, but also the fact Barca has a +10 goal differential that’s third best in the league this season and right on par with the table leaders. I think we all feel that a move up the table is a formality and the three points here would be huge as they’d come at the expense of 1st place Real Sociedad. 

Before the season got underway, I didn’t see many prognosticators saying Real Sociedad would be finishing in the top four of the La Liga table. But along with Atletico Madrid, they’ve been one of the two “best” sides thus far. However, a couple things stand out when analyzing their season to date. One is that they have yet to beat what I’d call a “top side.” They’ve really been beating up on some of La Liga’s weaker sides to this point.  Another thing is that they have drawn six straight times across all competitions. So it looks as if that fast start to the campaign is hanging on by a bit of a thread. 

It wasn’t pretty, but Barca gladly accepted the 1-0 victory over Levante last week where Lionel Messi scored the lone goal. Especially after taking that humiliating 3-0 loss from Juventus in the UCL and being shocked here by Cadiz 2-1 two weeks ago. But before that, we saw what this decorated side is capable of as they outscored the competition 10-0 over the previous three fixtures. My view is that Barca is going to treat this fixture very seriously and walk away with the three points. 8* Barcelona

8* Over Sampdoria/Hellas Verona (2:45 ET): Last we checked in with Hellas Verona, I was speaking about just how low scoring their fixtures had been in this Serie A campaign. It was last month when I played them Over the total against Benevento, a struggling side which they took advantage of en route to a 3-1 victory. Such high-scoring fixtures, win or lose, continue to be rare for this side which is now 7th in the table but closing in on the top four. Their nine goals conceded are a Serie A low this campaign. 

With only nine goals conceded and 15 scored, Hellas Verona fixtures almost seem TOO low-scoring. I said this in the analysis for my previous Over bet and will reiterate it again now that I’m playing that way again. Like the previous Over bet, I Gialloblu are matched up with a side they should be able to score on multiple times. Sampdoria hasn’t kept a clean sheet since October and they’ve conceded exactly two goals in each of their last five Serie A matches. On the bright side, they’ve also scored at least one of their own in each of those five matches. 

But Sampdoria’s recent form isn’t good as they’ve lost four of six in the Serie A. Last time it was a 2-1 away defeat to Napoli, their sixth overall defeat this campaign. This is going to be a struggle against a side in very good form as Hellas Verona has lost just twice in 11 matches and has taken 8 of a possible 12 points against league heavyweights Juventus, AC Milan, Atalanta and Lazio. Adding to the “impressiveness” is that all four of those matches were away. I look for Verona to “pile it on here” and send this one Over. 8* Over Sampdoria/Hellas Verona

8* RB Leipzig (2:30 ET): The margin for error keeps getting thinner and thinner atop the Bundesliga table. So RB Leipzig could ill afford anything but the three points Wednesday as they travel to face struggling Hoffenheim. Leipzig currently sits in a second place tie with Bayern Munich entering Match Week 12. Unbeaten Leverkusen sits one point in front. So a win here and there’s a chance Leipzig could be out in front. What they must guard against is complacency seeing as Dortmund and Wolfsburg are both hot on their heels.

Hoffenheim is not having anywhere near the success Leipzig is, at least domestically. While they just finished first in their Europa League group for the first time in club history, the Bundesliga has been far less kind to Hoffenheim. They’ve won just once in their last nine domestic affairs and most recently were on the wrong side of a 4-1 beating from Bayern Munich. Adding insult to injury, both Florian Grillitsch and Stefan Posch were sent off in the defeat, so the club will be short-handed Wednesday.

While Leipzig has just one away victory this season in the Bundesliga, this certainly appears to be an easy three points based on the recent form of both sides. Leipzig was quite satisfied with their 3-3 draw against Bayern two weeks ago and has since beaten Manchester United in the UCL and Werder Bremen (2-0) here in the Bundesliga. Leipzig is unbeaten in the last five fixtures with Hoffenheim, winning four of them. Key is the fact they’ve conceded only nine times this campaign while Hoffenheim has conceded 21 times, among the most in the league. 8* RB Leipzig

10* Western Carolina (7:00 ET): Western Carolina has pulled off an incredible string of close victories this season in getting to 6-1. On Saturday, they downed North Carolina A&T 104-98 in overtime. However, that was a game they really “should have” finished off in regulation as they led by 13 with just over seven minutes remaining. As I already alluded to, winning close has been the norm for this WCU team as they have four wins by seven points or less. On the flip side, their only loss (to Troy) was by two.

VCU has looked a little better than expected so far. Thanks to a couple of upsets over Utah State and Memphis in the first few games, the Rams are now 5-2 SU. They come into tonight riding a three-game winning streak, one of them by 36 over the same North Carolina A&T team that just took Western Carolina into OT. On Saturday, it was a 23-point victory over old CAA rival Old Dominion on Saturday. They’ve covered five in a row and are 6-1 ATS overall. The only non-cover was a 12-pt loss at a very good West Virginia team where they were 10.5-point underdogs. 

While VCU has been impressive in victory this year (all 5 wins by double digits), I don’t think they are going to be able to keep winning in such dominant fashion. With Western Carolina having played so many close games already, I expect another one tonight. The “Havoc” defense of VCU is going to be tested here by a Western Carolina team that shoots the ball very well (58.2% last game). The Catamounts have covered the last five times they’ve been a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. 10* Western Carolina

8* Over Chelsea/Wolves (1:00 ET): We’ve got two sides that were each kept clean in their respective last matches. Wolverhampton went down 1-0 to rival Aston Villa while Chelsea fell 2-0 to Everton. That loss for Chelsea snapped a 17-game unbeaten run across all competitions, but fans of the Blues need not be concerned as their club should still be considered one of the top teams in the Premier League this season. While I do expect them to win Tuesday, I think an even better (and safer) play is on the Over. 

Wolverhampton has managed only 11 goals in 12 matches as they’ve been shut out twice in a row. Only the teams fighting off relegation have scored fewer times this season. The Wolves are now stuck down in 13th in the table. But keeping them alive is the fact they’ve conceded just 16 times. Only three EPL teams (Arsenal, Burnley and last place Sheffield United) have had fewer total goals scored in their matches this campaign. For Wolverhampton, I have the feeling that number is going to rise. I absolutely see them getting on the scoresheet today.

Chelsea slipped to 5th with the loss last week, but the good news is that if they earn the three here, then they move into a first place tie with Tottenham and Liverpool. They’ve got only two losses this season, tied for the second fewest. They certainly can be relied upon for a goal or two here as they’ve scored the second most times in the EPL with 25 goals. In this fixture last season, it was 5-2 Chelsea. 8* Over Chelsea/Wolves

10* Cleveland (8:15 ET): While I remain HIGHLY skeptical of the Browns’ long-term fortune, due to a -15 point differential and 6-0 SU record in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!), I’ve got them here as a home dog vs. the Ravens on MNF. Certainly many are going to point to the way Baltimore dismantled the Browns back in Week 1. However, that 38-6 win and cover (as 7-pt favorites) seems like “forever ago” and the Ravens simply have not been as dominant in 2020 as they were a season ago. You’ll want to take the points here.

Baltimore had lost three in a row (all by 6 points or less) before beating a Dallas team that put up little effort on Tuesday. I don’t think we should put much stock in a win over the Cowboys at this point. The Browns aren’t the Cowboys, that’s for sure. Last week saw Baker Mayfield play perhaps the best half of his NFL career, leading his team to a ridiculous 38-7 halftime advantage. The final score of 41-35 is misleading to say the least as the Titans scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes.

Mayfield had a career-high 4 TDs in the 1H last week. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Odell Beckham Jr was lost to a season-ending injury. That was six games ago and Mayfield had an 11-0 TD-INT ratio since the Beckham injury. The Browns have not trailed in three of their last four games and the one they did (Jacksonville) saw them down for only a brief time. This will be Baltimore’s third game in 12 days and second in a row on a short week. We saw how Pittsburgh looked last night in the same scenario. 10* Cleveland

10* Celta de Vigo (3:00 ET): Looking across most of the “big” European Leagues, we’re starting to see the “contenders” separate themselves from the “pretenders.” But not in La Liga where there are a number of teams currently in the top half of the table that don’t seem likely to stay there. One such club is Cadiz, who somehow managed to pull off a 2-1 win against Barcelona last weekend despite being massive underdogs. While their away form has been quite good thus far, Cadiz has scored only 11 goals while conceding 13 this term and I don’t think they are to be trusted long-term.

Oddsmakers are making a bit of a “statement” with Celta de Vigo being ML favorites here. The Sky Blues are just 17th in the table and fighting relegation. They’ve finished 17th each of the last two seasons as well, barely escaping embarrassment. But they come into Monday riding a two-game win streak, having beaten Granada and Athletic Bilbao by scores of 3-1 and 2-0. It’s worth noting Granada is currently 7th in the table, just one spot below Cadiz.

Looking at Cadiz’s surprising early season success, I think it’s important to remember this is a recently promoted side, one that was actually runners-up in the Segunda Division last year. Celta de Vigo has scored more goals this campaign than has Cadiz. Seven of Celta’s 13 goals have come since the last International Break. Their recent form is encouraging and I’m simply not a believer in Cadiz. I look forward to attacking the La Liga card in the days that follow, trying to “pick off” some of these overrated sides. 10* Celta de Vigo

9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on the Steelers. That may sound strange considering this team has lost just one time all season. But that loss occurred last Monday, the same day Buffalo ended its long MNF losing streak with a 34-24 victory against San Francisco. The Steelers have certainly underwhelmed of late, not just with loss to Washington last Monday, but also with a less than stellar showing against what amounted to the Ravens’ backups two weeks ago. But they are 11-1, have one of the best defenses in football and should NOT be an underdog here.

My power ratings were more in step with the lookahead line for this game, which had the Steelers as slight favorites. Shortly after the MNF results came in, the line quickly “jumped the fence” with the Bills now favored. I don’t buy it. Despite being 9-3, Buffalo doesn’t even have a top 10 point differential. Five of their wins have been in one-score games and remember that the 49ers team they just defeated was playing a lot of backups and the game WASN’T in San Francisco. The Bills are 1-7 ATS playing on a short week since 2016. 

Lots of other trends favor the road team here. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning record. He is on a 10-2 ATS run as an underdog of any kind with eight outright wins. Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS this season, the second best such record in the league. While Buffalo has covered four straight themselves, their pass-happy offense doesn’t figure to fare so well against what is probably the best pass defense in the entire league. The L3 weeks have seen the Steelers allow an average of just 247.7 YPG. 9* Pittsburgh

8* Portland State (5:00 ET): Washington State may be undefeated (4-0), but they have been living quite dangerously with all four wins coming by four points or fewer. All four wins have been here at the Palouse and save for a minor upset of Oregon State, the competition hasn’t exactly been fierce. The Cougars other three wins were against Texas Southern, Eastern Washington and Idaho. They went 0-3 ATS in those games. So there is hope here for a Portland State squad that may not be great, but was favored in its first road game of the season. 

Sadly for the Vikings, they lost that road game. It was the season opener vs. Portland and they fell 86-73 as 2.5-point chalk. Their only game since then was an 88-48 blowout of Northwestern College on Tuesday. Consider that to be a confidence builder as they go in to face a P5 foe on the road. Portland State held their opponent to 29.1% shooting on Tuesday, an encouraging sign seeing as Wazzu is shooting a paltry 35.9% on the season.

While the Wazzu faithful are hoping that this can be the first dominant win of the season, I see a team ripe to be upset. Considering the Cougars’ four wins this year have been by a total of 14 points, the idea of them laying double digits to anybody seems questionable. They have had to rally from a double-digit deficit in each of the last three games! So they are a REALLY shaky 4-0.  Furthermore, it looks as if they could be short-handed on Sunday. 8* Portland State

10* Over Saints/Eagles (4:25 ET): Well, isn’t this the contrarian play? Even getting more than a touchdown at home, it feels as if the Eagles are getting too MUCH respect this week as they send out Jalen Hurts to make his 1st career NFL start against what might be the league’s best defense. The QB change, precipitated by the horrendous play of Carson Wentz, was needed. It’s a tough spot for Hurts, no doubt. But here’s the thing. What if he’s good? Certainly he can be no worse than Wentz was over the last month or so.

New Orleans doesn’t have many problems these days. They are 10-2 SU and in the driver's seat to earn homefield advantage in the NFC Playoffs. Even without Drew Brees, the Saints continue to hum along as they’ve won nine in a row, the last three coming with Taysom Hill as the starting QB. Brees is reportedly close to returning, but there’s no rush considering the Saints are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS WITHOUT him in the lineup the L2 seasons. The offense should score plenty here as they’ve run for 436 yards the L2 weeks. I certainly expect the Saints to score in the neighborhood of their season average of 28.9 PPG. 

So this is the lowest total on the board Sunday, which can’t be all that surprising with a rookie QB going against a defense that has allowed just two touchdowns and 44 total points in the L5 games. Plus these teams have combined to go Under in 11 straight games. But I believe the Saints can do virtually all the “heavy lifting” here and won’t be surprised if the Eagles score more than expected. Hurts is a bit of an “X-factor.” If New Orleans allows just 20 points here - and that is their season average - we should be in really good shape. I’ve waited all week to try and hit this number at its nadir, so here we go. 10* Over Saints/Eagles

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): So the thought process here is pretty simple. Unless they’re playing the Jets, Dallas should not be a favorite against anybody, let alone on the road. America’s Team has really underperformed in Mike McCarthy’s first season, going a league-worst 2-10 ATS. Obviously, Cowboys’ fans can point a finger to the Dak Prescott injury, but the team was already struggling before the QB was lost for the season. McCarthy was a terrible hire and the Cowboys’ three wins this year have come by a combined seven points, none by more than a field goal. So yeah, take the points here.

The Bengals also lost their starting QB to a season-ending injury and it may be a long-time before we see Joe Burrow again. That’s too bad because Cincinnati was pretty competitive with Burrow under center. While the immediate future may not be looking too rosy in Cincy, the team has remained competitive even without its rookie QB. Two weeks ago, I took them and they covered in a 2-point loss to the Giants. Last week saw them hang in against the 8-4 Dolphins, even taking a 7-6 lead into halftime. The team is 6-2 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss and now they are back home where they’ve covered four in a row. 

The big story of this game will be Andy Dalton returning to Cincinnati. But for me, it’s the opportunity to play against Dallas as a favorite. The ‘Boys have been favored five times this season and are 0-5 ATS in those games, losing three of those games outright. This is the just the 2nd time they’ve been favored since the Prescott injury (lost 41-16 to Washington on Thanksgiving). The run defense (167.8 YPG allowed) is the worst the league has seen in a decade and just gave up almost 300 yards to Baltimore last week. That game was on Tuesday and the Cowboys are 3-15 ATS since 2012 when playing w/ six or fewer days' rest. The Bengals defense has held 4 of the last 5 opponents to 20 points or less and the team has three losses by a FG or less. 8* Cincinnati

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): That 5-1 start is a distant memory for the Bears, who have now lost six straight. The future of HC Matt Nagy in the Windy City is very much in doubt, even though he took this team to a division championship just two years ago. But at least he has Mitchell Trubisky! Wait, what? While Bears fans are probably still salty the team chose Trubisky instead of the opposing QB this week (DeShaun Watson), they can rest easy knowing the team has averaged a solid 25.8 PPG in Trubisky starts this season. As much as the Bears have struggled on the offensive side of the ball, they’re better with Trubisky under center and facing a terrible defense this week. 

Houston’s season has gone very differently than Chicago, though both now sport similar records. The Texans opened 0-4 with three of those losses coming to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kansas City. They’re 4-4 SU since the 0-4 start, but two of the wins were against Jacksonville. As I already mentioned, the Texans defense - even with JJ Watt - is abysmal. They are 30th in both yards allowed and efficiency. Losing a heartbreaker at home to Indianapolis last week (fumbled inside the Colts’ 5-yard line on the potential go-ahead drive) does this team no favors. 

I have these rated pretty evenly, so even with the Bears’ struggles over the last two months, I don’t think they should be an underdog at home this week. Houston isn’t just 4-8 SU, they are also 4-8 ATS. The Bears’ defense has been bad the L2 weeks, but the Texans offense just lost WR Will Fuller to a suspension and WR Brandin Cooks is questionable with foot and neck injuries. Four of the Bears’ last five games have been decided by one possession, so the fact they’ve lost all of them is a case of bad luck. This is a winnable game. 8* Chicago

8* Miami (1:00 ET): No one seems to take the Dolphins very seriously, despite their 8-4 SU record. Normally, I’d also be skeptical of a team with that record if they’ve been outgained on a per game/play basis like the ‘Fins have. But did you know that Miami has the FOURTH best point differential in the league this season (+91!)? They were my 10* NFL Game of the Year back on November 1st and that ended up being an outright 28-17 win as three-point dogs against the Rams. This spot feels eerily similar.

Kansas City is one of three teams with a better YTD point differential than the Dolphins. But they’ve been far from dominant of late. Each of their last four wins have been by six points or less and they are 0-4 ATS in those games. Those four wins have been by a total of 15 points and they’ve trailed at halftime in three of them. Last week, as a double digit home favorite, they trailed a bad Denver team for much of the first three quarters and scored just one offensive TD. 

While Miami’s offense is hardly explosive, they can lean on a defense that has produced a turnover in 18 consecutive games (longest active streak in the league) and allowed the second fewest points in the league this season. They’ve allowed just 10 total points in the L2 games and 21 or less in six of the last seven contests. They’ve covered six of those seven games and are a league-best 18-6 ATS since their Week 5 bye last season. This is a game the Dolphins very much can win and really need for their playoff hopes. Take the points. 8* Miami

8* UNLV (11:00 ET): It certainly hasn’t been a good year for UNLV. In fact, last week’s game vs. Boise State was probably for the best as the Rebels were quite likely to take a beating in that one. This is a team that’s already 0-5 SU (0-4-1 ATS) with every loss coming by at least 13 points. Because of that, you know that they’re going to be getting a ton of points every Saturday. This week though, it’s too many as the opponent just isn’t deserving of this price range. Take the points. 

Two weeks ago, I took Hawaii. It was here at home, but they were GETTING points. The opponent was Nevada, undefeated at the time, and the Warriors ended up pulling off a 24-21 outright win (were +7.5). Unfortunately, they were unable to sustain that momentum last week against San Jose State. That despite being dealt a major advantage in that the game was moved from San Jose to Honolulu (COVID). Hawaii lost 35-24 to fall to 3-4 SU on the year. They’ve been favored only twice in 2020 and failed to cover both times. One time they lost outright (at Wyoming). The other, they could only beat a winless New Mexico team by six here on the Island. 

Hawaii’s three wins this season have been by a total of 24 points. So you can see why I’d be so skeptical of laying so many points with them here. UNLV doesn’t want to finish the season winless (who would?), thus I expect a solid effort out of the underdog. The Rebels can control this game in the trenches as Hawaii is not particularly strong on either side along the offensive or defensive lines. At the very least, a Hawaii defense allowing more than 6.0 yards per play will keep the backdoor open. 8* UNLV

10* Billy Quarantillo () : This will be the third fight on the prelims as Quarantillo looks to keep his perfect UFC record (3-0) intact against Gavin Tucker, who is 12-1 overall in his career, including 3-1 in UFC. Quarantillo has a 15-2 overall record in his career. I look for him to get his hand raised yet again in this featherweight matchup.

Last time we checked in with Quarantillo was his last fight. I had the Under 2.5 rounds and was bailed out when Quarantillo delivered a knockout just seven seconds into Round 3. It was not just his third straight win to open his UFC tenure, but eighth straight win overall. Six of those eight wins have been finishes. This is a fight Quarantillo has been wanting for awhile. He was originally going to face Tucker back in April, but that got postponed due to COVID-19. Tucker has regularly been “calling him out” since then, as recently as October.

“I think it’s a really good stylistic matchup for me,” Quarantillo told MMA Junkie. “What’s really intriguing is that he’s never been finished before, so I look at that as a huge opportunity for me to go out and finish him.  The fact Tucker has never been finished isn’t really a concern on this end as he very much SHOULD HAVE been by Rick Glenn in his UFC debut back in 2017. That beating led to him taking two years off. He’s won twice upon returning to the sport, both by submission, but it’s a big step up in class facing the red hot Quarantillo, whose superior cardio will treat him well Saturday. 10* Billy Quarantillo

9* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): Last year’s “Commonwealth Cup” was a rather sizable play for me. It was the day after Thanksgiving and my 10* College Football Game of the Year. I took Virginia, who had lost the previous 15 meetings, as a 2.5-point underdog. They won outright 39-30 thanks to a thrilling 4th quarter comeback (outscored Va Tech 19-3). Coming into this year, the two rivals are in much different form. Virginia is on a 4-game win streak and 5-0 ATS L5. Va Tech is on a 4-game losing streak while also going 0-4 ATS. 

For the first time in a LONG time, it “feels” like Virginia should be favored coming into this game. But it’s telling that they are not. Obviously, some of that has to do with the fact that the game is in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers have not won here since 1998 when they were ranked #16 in the country. Also, the entirety of UVA’s 4-game win streak has come in Charlottesville. One win was against a FCS foe. Last week they did beat Boston College for the 1st time ever, but the Eagles were without starting QB Phil Jurkovic and RB David Bailey. Despite this, the Hoos’ defense still allowed 32 points and 500+ yards. 

Almost all of those 500+ yards allowed came through the air. In fact, BC finished with -7 rush yards for the game after factoring in sack yardage. But Virginia Tech’s offense is #1 in the ACC in rushing yards, led by Khalil Herbert’s 7.6 yards per carry. Hokies HC Justin Fuente may very be coaching for his job Saturday night. Three of the Hokies’ six losses this year have been by a TD or less. They actually played Clemson pretty tough (for a half) last week despite losing the turnover battle and QB Hooker (he’s fine now). Virginia has not won a road game all year. Don’t be fooled by the records, Va Tech is better. 9* Virginia Tech

10* LSU (7:00 ET): LSU is once again “making history” in 2020, only unlike last season it’s a rather DUBIOUS history. Last week saw them close as a 28.5-point underdog at home vs. Alabama. That was the largest spread ever for a defending National Champion and the Tigers promptly got blown out 55-17. This week vs. Florida makes them the first team EVER to begin a season ranked in the Top 10 and end up being a 20+ point underdog in two separate games. Needless to say, it’s been a fairly ugly “fall from grace” for HC Ed Orgeron, who rode Joe Burrow to a National Championship 11 months ago. 

While I didn’t want to jump in front of the Alabama train last weekend, I do think this spread is far too high. My own power ratings say it should be closer to a 2 TD spread. That’s a lot of value. I successfully faded Florida last Saturday as I thought they were far too big of a favorite in Knoxville. While they did outgain Tennessee pretty substantially, it ended up being a 31-19 final due to a competitive first half and late Volunteers’ touchdown. This will be the 2nd largest Florida-LSU spread ever and largest since 1994 when Florida didn’t cover. 

By beating Tennessee last weekend, Florida has clinched a spot in next week’s SEC Championship Game where they’ll get their crack at top ranked Alabama. So this is a classic lookahead spot for the Gators. Obviously, the lookahead line for this game was a lot lower, not just at the start of the season, but even just a few weeks ago. This number is a product of recency bias and I just can’t see LSU getting blown out again. They’ve got too much talent and Orgeron is still on a 6-1 SU run after an SEC loss, not to mention 6-3 ATS as a dog despite last week’s result. Take the points. 10* LSU

9* Under Boise State/Wyoming (6:00 ET): I have been waiting for quite some time to play the Under on Boise State. Unfortunately, their last two games were both called off due to COVID. One was going to be a showdown with the only other Mountain West team still unbeaten in  conference play, that being San Jose State. The other cancellation was last Friday vs. UNLV, which would have been a sure win. The reason for my desire to take the Broncos Under the total isn’t just the fact they’ve gone Over in every game. It’s HOW they’ve gone Over - so many non-offensive touchdowns being scored. That can’t continue, can it? 

Case in point; three weeks ago I went with the Under when Boise hosted Colorado State. While the final score was 52-21 (in the Broncos’ favor) and thus went Over by 11.5 points, BSU scored a ridiculous FOUR non-offensive TDs in that game. Had they “only” scored two, that game would have stayed Under. Two of the four non-offensive TDs were returns of blocked punts. They also blocked a FG and returned that for a score! (What is this, the Chargers?) Not to be outdone, the Broncos returned a kickoff for a TD the following week vs. Hawaii. So while the team is averaging 40.0 PPG this season, that comes with a bit of an asterisk. 

Wyoming, who suffered the embarrassment of losing to New Mexico last week, has the defense to keep Boise State in check. They allow just 333.5 YPG, which is top 25 in the country. The Cowboys have allowed 17 points or less three times this season and in their only home game thus far, they held Hawaii to just 7 points. I think the public is going to be VERY tempted to take the Over here with such a “low” number, but it was set that way for a reason. Wyoming could be without its star running back (Xazavian Williams) and down to its third-string QB here. Boise State’s defense has allowed under 4.7 yards per play the L2 games. 9* Under Boise State/Wyoming

8* Troy (3:00 ET): It’s not hyperbole to say last week’s 22-17 win over BYU was the biggest achievement in the history of Coastal Carolina football. The Chanticleers are now 10-0 SU and heading to the Sun Belt Championship Game (next week vs. Louisiana), not to mention maybe some place bigger if they win the next two games. That they were able to beat BYU, as a 10-pt underdog, on such short notice deserves a tip of the cap. But what about this week’s game? It sure feels like a “sandwich spot” and that’s dangerous when laying double digits on the road to a decent team. 

Troy is just 5-5 SU on the year and a money-burning 2-8 ATS. But they are off perhaps their most complete effort of the season, a 29-0 shutout of South Alabama where the defense allowed just 239 total yards. Back in the season opener, I took the Trojans when they rolled to a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. In my analysis, I stated I expected this team to improve from last season when it finished just 5-7 SU (three straight 10+ win seasons before that). That hasn’t really materialized, but there’s been some extenuating circumstances. QB Watson has missed time with a rib injury, COVID has interrupted the schedule and there have been three losses by seven points or less.

I just think it is going to be very hard for Coastal Carolina to prevail here by double digits. In addition to the letdown/lookahead nature of the spot, they were actually outgained by BYU last week, 405-366. They needed a tackle at the goal line to win the game. Remember that the Chanticleers were not just picked to finish behind Troy this season, but also LAST in the entire Sun Belt. With Watson back in the lineup last week, Troy more closely resembled the team I expected at the start of this season. This game was originally supposed to be played on November 14th. It being moved to this week is more of an advantage to the home dog. Take the points. 8* Troy

8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): I fully understand that PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers have fallen short of expectations this season. Furthermore, the team has been hit hard by COVID with 40+ players/staff testing positive and the last two games getting cancelled as a result. As if that wasn’t rough enough, WR Rashod Bateman - arguably the best player on the team - has decided to opt out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. That all being said, I just feel the number this week at Nebraska is way too high.

Nebraska has looked a lot better the last two weeks, particularly in last Saturday’s 37-27 win at Purdue. The week before, I took them and it was a pretty easy cover as double digit underdogs against Iowa. But this week will mark just the second time all season that the Cornhuskers have been favored to win a game. The first was three weeks ago vs. Illinois and they promptly lost that game - outright - as 17-point chalk. Given the ‘Huskers’ two wins this season are by a combined 17 points, and they were outgained substantially in one of those wins, this is not a good candidate to lay double digits with. 

The last four meetings of these Big 10 West rivals has seen the home team go 4-0. The last three years have all been decided victories. But Minnesota rarely gets blown out under Fleck. One of their three losses this year came by a single point. They too beat Purdue three weeks ago and save for the Iowa game, the offense has been quite productive (40+ pts in both road games). Even without Bateman, I expect the Gophers to score a decent amount here. They are 4-1 ATS L5 as a road underdog while Nebraska is just 1-5 ATS its L6 as a favorite. 8* Minnesota

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): Wake Forest boasts an impressive 6-1 ATS record and I’ve been fortunate to cash in on them multiple times. The first time was in a 37-13 LOSS to Clemson. As you probably ascertained, the line for that game (season opener) was quite high. The next time was “more like it” (especially if you’re from Winston-Salem) as the Demon Deacons pulled an outright upset over Virginia Tech, 23-16 as 10.5-point underdogs. Then I took them again vs. North Carolina, which ended up as a 59-53 loss, but they still covered +12.5. 

That North Carolina game seems like FOREVER ago, so I was surprised when I saw it’s the last game Wake Forest has played. It was nearly one month ago to the date. It’s actually the only game they’ve played since October! Despite the long layoff, I expect the team to play well here. The offense, led by QB Sam Hartman, is averaging 39.3 PPG this season. They’ve scored 40 or more four times. They led North Carolina by 21 in the second half. The only other loss besides that and Clemson was by three points to an 8-win NC State team. The Deacons could very easily be on a 6-game SU win streak heading into this game. 

Louisville has also been victimized by some close losses this season. They are 3-7 SU, but four of those losses have been by 7 points or less. Still that didn’t stop HC Scott Satterfield from exploring an offer to take the South Carolina job, which angered fans and I’m sure his players. Unlike Wake Forest, who hosts Florida State next week, this is Louisville’s final game. They are likely not going bowling and may not be too excited to play for a coach that just thought about leaving the program. All three L’ville wins this season have been against pretty bad teams. Don’t see them winning here against what I feel is one of the more underrated teams in the country. 8* Wake Forest

8* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): Grand Canyon University is off to a 3-0 start having waxed Mississippi Valley State by 39 points 10 days ago. That 88-49 win was the Antelopes’ third straight (victory) by double digits to open the 2020-21 season, though the level of competition hasn’t been particularly strong. Case in point; they were 32.5-pt favorites over MVSU. Still the fact that the Antelopes have been bet to the role of favorite tonight vs. Nevada should tell you “all you need to know” about the respect this team deserves.

Nevada is off to a 4-1 SU start, having just defeated William Jessup 86-64 on Monday. Obviously, that wasn’t much of a test. Before that easy win, the Wolf Pack suffered a horrible 25-point loss to San Francisco on December 2nd, a game where they were 2.5-point home favorites. That result carries more weight for me when handicapping tonight’s matchup. Before Monday’s game, Nevada had not shot the ball particularly well this season. 

Though it’s been against weak competition, Grand Canyon looks great so far and deserves to be favored in this matchup. The Antelopes have revenge from an 8-point loss two years ago. That game was played on a neutral floor and you can bet the upperclassmen remember it. Nevada has been held below 40% shooting in two of its games thus far. They had to replace all five starters from last year, a problem for sure, so there are going to be growing pains like we saw vs. San Francisco. With Bryce Drew on the bench, GCU is going to improve a lot on the defensive end this year and three of last year’s four leading scorers are back. 8* Grand Canyon

10* Eintracht Frankfurt (2:30 ET): Please note that this is a goal line selection where I’m taking Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25. Obviously, a win is what we’re looking for here. But by betting this way, we win even if the match is a draw. Given these two Bundesliga sides have drawn in 13 of their combined 20 league matches thus far, this seems like a savvy bet.

The Bundesliga is shaping up to be an interesting league this season. You’ve got the three expected teams at the top - Bayern, RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund - but also two unbeaten clubs, Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg.  But Die Wolf still only sits 5th in the table because they’ve won just 4 of their 10 matches. They’ve played to a draw in the other six. I thought they were a bit lucky to remain unbeaten on the campaign as last week’s saw them barely escape with the 2-2 draw against FC Koln. Twice they were down a goal. Eventually this club is going to lose. Why not today?

Eintracht Frankfurt is a side I was hoping to see improve this year and move up the table. Maybe that still happens? They are currently 9th in the table and are actually on a five-match unbeaten streak. Now all five of those matches did result in a draw. The latest was last week vs. BVB 1-1. Frankfurt’s last Bundesliga win was actually back on October 3rd vs. Hoffenheim. But they’ve only been beaten once the entire campaign and that was by Bayern Munich. Take that fixture away and Frankfurt has a positive goal differential on the year. They are desperate for the three points here. Don’t be surprised if they get them.  10* Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25

10* Over Patriots/Rams (8:20 ET): This particular play definitely flies in the face of results, both recent and long-term. The Under is 5-0 in Rams’ home games this season with their defense allowing an average of just 15.0 PPG. The Under is also 4-0 in the Patriots last four games overall. The Under is 6-2 in both teams’ last eight games. Now that we’ve got all that out of the way, let’s concentrate on the game at hand. The Rams scored 38 last week while the Patriots scored 45. Those were season-highs for both teams.

Now the Patriots definitely got a “boost” from their special teams & defense, both of which scored a TD last week vs. the Chargers. They also got a long punt return that set up a field goal. Obviously, I do not expect New England to score 45 points again this week. The key is I don’t expect their defense to play as well. The Over is 4-1 the Patriots L5 games after holding the previous opponent to 15 points or less. The Rams offense averages nearly 400 YPG and 6.0 YPP. QB Jared Goff threw for 351 on yards on Sunday, completing 37 of 47 passes. Going into last week, the Patriots defense was 31st in the league (2nd worst), allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt. I expect another big offensive game from the Rams. 

New England flat out shocked me in their dismantling of the Chargers. The offense may not have been THAT impressive, but it did go for 165 yards on the ground. The Rams’ defense has been pretty good at stopping the run lately, but hasn’t really faced an offense that runs the ball well, let alone a QB like Cam Newton. This could end up closing as the lowest O/U for a Rams game all season. The only “competition” would be games vs. the Giants and Washington (w/ Dwayne Haskins), two inept offensive teams. 10* Over Patriots/Rams

10* Oregon State (8:00 ET): Oregon State is off B2B outright losses at the hands of Wyoming and Washington State, but should get back on track tonight against a lowly in-state foe. Both OSU losses have been close. They lost by four at Wazzu, then by only three to Wyoming. That Wyoming loss really stung as the Beavers led by six with under two minutes to go. They led Washington State by double digits early in the second half of that game as well. Really, the Beavers easily could be coming into this game unbeaten at 4-0. 

Portland is 3-1 and on a three-game win streak, but two of those three wins came against non-board teams. They did just beat rival Portland State 86-73 as a 2.5-point home dog last Saturday. The fact the Pilots were home dogs to a team like Portland State should speak volumes. I’ve got Portland ranked outside my top 300. As a reminder, there are “only” 347 D-I College Hoops teams. The Pilots have never won more than 11 games in any of HC Terry Porter’s previous four seasons here and are a terrible 7-61 SU in conference play. 

Oregon State’s problems thus far have been turnovers and a bizarrely low FG% on 2-point attempts. We should see those issues rectified tonight in what shapes up to be a “get-well game” for them. Portland also has turnover issues and while they do a great job at getting to the free throw line, they are outside the top 300 in the country in offensive efficiency, which is very bad. Oregon State should have a significant edge on the boards in this matchup and will be looking for a “pound of flesh” after blowing 2H leads in the L2 games. 10* Oregon State

10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): So these ACC rivals were originally going to play last month, but that was nixed because of COVID. I was going to play the Under back then and will still do so now. Interestingly, the Panthers continue to go Over the total as the L2 weeks have seen them defeat Virginia Tech 47-14 and lose to Clemson 52-17. That makes it seven consecutive Overs for them, but I expect that streak to end Thursday mainly because of the opponent. It’s not Virginia Tech’s bad defense or Clemson’ explosive offense that they’ll be facing at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Take the Under. 

Georgia Tech is a team simply playing out the string at this point. The Yellow Jackets are 3-6 and lost last week 23-13 to NC State. I’d be thrilled with a similar final score here, obviously. Georgia Tech’s offense is going to struggle to move the ball this week as they are up against a Pitt defense that leads the ACC in rushing yards allowed. No Panthers’ opponent has gone for more than 156 YPG on the ground this season and the average is just 93.1, which not only leads the conference but is also fifth best in the nation. If that’s not bad enough, Georgia Tech QB Sims has thrown as many INTs as he has TDs and his WR corps is banged up. 

While its year two under HC Geoff Collins, transitioning away from the triple option offense was going to take time at Georgia Tech. They’re just not “there” yet in terms of running a pro-style offense and have been held to 13 pts or fewer in three of their last five games. Pay no mind to the 55 points they scored two weeks ago vs. Duke as that was a crazy, turnover filled game. What we saw last week is more emblematic of the current state of the Yellow Jackets offense and this is the best defense they will have faced in a while. Pitt leads all of FBS with 43 sacks and their offense won’t need to do much here. This was a 20-10 game last season. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech

10* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is going to look to exact some revenge here for what happened on the football field. In case you forgot, the Broncos’ football team suffered its only loss of the season at BYU earlier this year and it came in embarrassing fashion on the blue turf. The hoops team heads to Provo, looking to build off an 86-55 win over Sam Houston State that came all the way back on 11/29. The Broncos only other game this season was a 68-58 loss at Top 10 Houston.

BYU has been much busier than Boise State thus far as they come with a 5-1 SU record on the year. They’re off B2B wins (against St. John’s and Utah State), the latter coming on the road by three points. The Cougars weren’t tested during a 3-0 start and then suffered a blowout loss at the hands of USC, 79-53 as 3.5-point chalk. Tonight will be the most points they’ve had to lay since that game and my power ratings say the number is too high. I’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly and home court advantage just doesn’t mean much right now. 

Boise State has really struggled from three-point range thus far, making only 21.5% of their attempts. I expect that number to start going up immediately. The Broncos do an excellent job at crashing the glass and getting to the free throw line. They also are excellent at forcing turnovers (20th in NCAA) and defending the three-point line (22.9%). Those numbers are significant as BYU has a high turnover percentage (22.1% of its offensive possessions) and struggles at the FT line. This is a good matchup for the underdog. Take the points. 10* Boise State

8* SIU Edwardsville (7:00 ET): I don’t think Valpo should be laying double digits to anybody right now, even a “lesser” opponent like SIU Edwardsville. The Crusaders opened the season with three straight road defeats, one of them as a favorite to old Horizon League foe IL-Chicago. (The other two were at Purdue and Vanderbilt, so to be fair a strong start was unlikely). An 85-45 win over Judson College on Sunday was pretty meaningless considering that the opponent was a non-DI team. 

SIU Edwardsville started with an ugly loss at Saint Louis, but has since been a competitive squad. It’s other two losses were to LSU (easily covered that game as 30-pt underdogs) and Saturday at home vs. Omaha (by just two points). The Cougars pulled an upset in their last road game, beating Northern Illinois (by 20!) as a nine-point underdog! Having lost each of the L2 seasons to Valpo (by a total of just 18 points), the Cougars will be looking for revenge. 

Valpo has struggled from distance so far, shooting just 28% from three-point range. Even if that number is set to improve (it probably will), it’s going to be tough to cover a large spread such as this one. SIU Edwardsville has shot better than 50% in three of its five games and is much more proficient from behind the arc (including an impressive 41.8% in four games away from home). A poor 1H cost the Cougars the game against Omaha on Saturday. They’ll come out sharper here. 8* SIU Edwardsville

8* Under Borussia Monchengladbach/Real Madrid (3:00 ET): Group B is a lot more wide open heading into the final matchday of the Group Stage, at least compared with most other Groups. Borussia Monchengladbach currently is on top with 8 points as they are trying to become the 4th German Bundesliga side to make it through to the Round of 16. Real Madrid is just one point behind and could also see its way to the knockout stage, depending on what happens here and in the Inter-Shakhtar Donetsk match. 

M’gladbach is clearly in the best position, knowing that all it needs here is a draw to advance. So far, their group battles have been the highest scoring of the entire Champions League (even more than Bayern Munich!) with a total of 23 goals scored in five matches. They’ve scored 16 times themselves while conceding seven. Given the stakes involved Wednesday, I expect a conservative approach from the German side. The bevy of high-scoring results we’ve seen from them recently seems like an anomaly.

As for Real Madrid, this is pretty much do or die for the 13-time European champs. A win here would send them to the knockout stage. Anything but a win and it’s likely off to the Europa League for them. Two losses to Shakhtar Donetsk, including 2-0 last week, have been stunning results for Los Blancos. It should be noted that they did deliver a “clean sheet” victory against Sevilla (1-0) over the weekend on the domestic end. While the reverse fixture between these two ended in a 2-2 draw, note Real scored both of its goals late (87th minute and in stoppage time). Four of Real’s last five matches - across all competitions - have seen two or fewer goals scored. The one that didn’t had just three total goals scored. 8* Under Borussia Monchengladbach/Real Madrid

8* Illinois (9:30 ET): It was exactly one week ago that I took Michigan State plus the points here at Cameron Indoor and watched as the underdog pulled off the outright upset. Could Duke suffer another outright loss to a Big 10 opponent at home? Yes, I think so. I’ve got Illinois rated even higher than Michigan State, so this is a no brainer for me. I expect an outright win, but will take the points with the better team. Even after factoring in the minimal home court edge, I still think the Illini should be favored tonight. 

A young Duke team is off to an 0-3 ATS start. In addition to the outright loss to Michigan State last Tuesday, the Blue Devils did not cover against Coppin State in the opener or against Bellarmine on Friday. Now to be fair, they were favored by more than 30 in both games. But those spreads also reflect the fact Duke is overvalued right now. According to my own personal power ratings, they are not even a Top 25 team, let alone #10. Their current ranking is completely based on reputation. 

Coach K is also still trying to figure out his starting lineup. Eight different Blue Devils have found their way into the starting lineup in the first three games, which is a reflection of how young the squad is. Illinois is a veteran team looking to bounce back from a double digit loss to #2 Baylor. That was a close game for the first 30 minutes before Baylor pulled away. Note that while Duke lost by “only” 6 to Michigan State, they trailed by double digits much of the second half.  8* Illinois

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): I thought the oddsmakers made an error when they opened Detroit as the favorite for this game and it appears as if I wasn’t alone in that assessment given how the line has already moved. The Golden Flashes gave Virginia all they could handle over the weekend (in Charlottesville!), taking the Hoos into overtime and coming up only seven points short. They were 18.5-point underdogs, so they covered the spread easily. The only other game Kent State has played was a 90-41 win over Point Park.

Detroit is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS as they’ve covered the spread against Michigan State and Notre Dame. Both games have come in the last five days. The Titans were very fortunate to draw Michigan State just a few days after Sparty went to Cameron and upset Duke. The situation played out just as you might think as Detroit took advantage of MSU being in the letdown spot, staying even for most of the game before losing 83-76. On Sunday, the Titans lost by eight at Notre Dame, a game they were expected to lose by 12.

Though Detroit has played two P5 teams tough thus far, they are the ones in a bit of a letdown spot Tuesday night. The team is probably somewhat discouraged by the fact they didn’t win either game and isn’t likely to “get up” as much for an opponent like Kent State. So look for the Golden Flashes to take full advantage as they are better rested and confident after taking Virginia to OT. Had it not been for FTs, they would have won that game. Another reason they should be confident is that they beat Detroit by 35 points last season. 10* Kent State

10* Over Sevilla/Rennes (3:00 ET): As I predicted weeks ago, Sevilla has climbed up the La Liga table. They now sit a more respectable 6th in the Spanish top flight and I expect them to continue battling for a top four spot domestically. That said, they did just lose 1-0 to Real Madrid over the weekend. They were also kept clean in their last UCL fixture, a much uglier defeat, as they fell 4-0 to Chelsea. That said, I don’t think there’s a ton to worry about here as Sevilla has already booked its ticket to the knockout stage.

Rennes’ recent form has been nothing short of terrible as they are plummeting down the Ligue 1 table. They once sat at the top, but are now 9th as they’ve managed just ONE win - 2-1 against Brest - across all competitions since the beginning of October. Their fate here in the Champions League has already been settled as they will finish at the bottom of Group E. Thus far they’ve taken just one point from five matches while scoring only two goals, the fewest of any Champions League side thus campaign.

While the reverse fixture was 1-0 (in favor of Sevilla) and both sides have been blanked in their last two matches across all competitions, I feel this situation is ripe to produce an Over on Tuesday. Rennes has conceded a total of 10 times five UCL matches while Sevilla conceded four times in its ugly defeat at the hands of Chelsea last week. With no real stakes for either side, expect a wide open match here in France. Both clubs have been dealing with injured goaltenders. 10* Over Sevilla/Rennes

8* UNC Wilmington (5:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is gunning for a third consecutive upset here as they travel to face 3-0 East Carolina. The Seahawks have previously beaten UNC Asheville and Troy, games where they were six and three-point dogs, respectively. All three of their games thus far were played in Asheville (which is a lovely place to visit) as part of a tournament to open the season. They are led by Jaylen Sims, who is coming off a career-high 29 pts vs. Troy and averaging 26.7 PPG (on 63% shooting) overall. 

East Carolina might be unbeaten, but that’s a byproduct of who they’ve played. A season-opening win over Charlotte was a decent resume builder, but since then it’s been victories over NC Wesleyan (non-DI opponent) and Radford. The Pirates’ defense has been pretty good so far as they are allowing just 56.3 PPG, but I don’t expect that to continue. UNC Wilmington has scored 73 or more points in all three games and shoots very well (40%) from three-point range. The Seahawks have two other double-digit scorers besides Sims. 

While UNCW did allow 98 points to Western Carolina in the season opener, they’ve been much better defensively in the last two games, particularly vs. Troy. They held the Trojans below 30% shooting for the game and allowed only 50 points. While not expected to make a ton of noise in the Colonial this season, the Seahawks deserve more respect than they’re getting here against a team that’s overrated simply because they have a “0” in the loss column. 8* UNC Wilmington

10* California (8:00 ET): The university from Berkeley treated me so well yesterday on the football field (outright win over Oregon as my 10* NCAAF Game of the Week) that I thought I’d try the basketball team on Sunday. In all seriousness, me taking both programs on the same weekend is mere coincidence as this play is all about my skepticism over UCLA being ranked in the Top 25. I don’t see it. 

The Bruins’ season started with them losing outright (as a 3-pt favorite) to San Diego State. While it was a road game, they lost by 15 points and only managed to score 58 points on 39.5% shooting. From there, they did score 107 points the next game, but that was because of TRIPLE overtime. The Bruins were extremely fortunate to get the ATS win against Pepperdine (won 107-98) as they were NOT covering the 7-point spread for roughly 99% of the game. After a game with Long Beach State was postponed, UCLA finally got to play its home opener Thursday and it was their most complete effort to date. But that 78-52 win came against lowly Seattle, who was a 20-point underdog. 

Cal is 2-2 SU, but 0-2 in Pac 12 play. They’ve suffered losses to Oregon State and Arizona State, both coming by exactly eight points. The Bears didn’t shoot well in either game (just under 40% overall) and really struggled from 3-point range. But I didn’t exactly see great defense from UCLA in their first two games. Thus the Bears should see improved shooting tonight. The eight-point final margin against Arizona State was actually somewhat misleading as it was the largest they faced the entire game. It was a close game throughout. The same should end up being true here. Take the points. 10* California

10* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): The Chargers were “spared” what would have been yet another close loss last week as QB Justin Herbert was stuffed at the goal line on the final play. That cost me a cover though (would have been a 6-0 Sunday!). Thus it ended up being a 24-14 loss in Buffalo (I did cash the Under), dropping the Chargers to 3-8 SU on the year. They did outgain the Bills (ever so slightly), 367-332. Seven of those eight losses have been by eight points or less with four of them seeing LA blow a double digit lead! I realize you could say this most years, but the Chargers really are better than their record. 

The Patriots really had no business winning last week. The offense gained only 179 total yards at a pathetic 3.5 yards per play. This offense - with Cam Newton at the helm - just isn’t very good. Over the L8 weeks, New England has scored more than 23 points only one time and that was against the winless Jets. Though the market continues to show them respect (Belichick factor?), I think it’s important to realize the Pats are simply a below average football team right now. They’ve been outgained on the year - both per game and per play - and been outscored by 26 points. Newton has a 4-9 TD-INT ratio and will be missing his left tackle. 

Home field advantage may not mean much to the Chargers, especially this year, but they really should be at least a three-point favorite in this spot. This is a team that led the Chiefs, Bucs and Saints by double digits! The one bright spot of the season has been the play of rookie QB Justin Herbert, who is averaging over 300 YPG. RB Austin Ekler returned last week and had 129 total yards. The Patriots defense is giving up 7.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 31st. “Now or never” (for the Chargers) might seem a bit hyperbolic, but after five straight ATS losses, they really should win here. 10* LA Chargers

8* Over Eagles/Packers (4:25 ET): Seeing as how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers just put up 41 on a very good Bears defense, they should have little difficulty scoring plenty of points here against the sinking ship known as the Eagles. Philadelphia dropped to 3-7-1 SU w/ a home loss to Seattle Monday night. That 23-17 defeat saw them pull off one of the great “backdoor covers” of the season with a TD + 2 pt conversion in the closing seconds (closed +6.5). That made it three straight games where the Eagles have scored exactly 17 points. They’ve got to be due for some more scoring, right?

As it turns out, Philly’s last five games have all stayed Under. But that includes two games vs. the Giants (who are 30th in PPG), one vs. Dallas (who was starting Ben DiNucci) and lousy weather in Cleveland. I was a bit shocked to see the Eagles hold the high-scoring Seahawks to just 23 points Monday night. They were particularly stout against the run (gave up only 76 yards on the ground). But on a short week I don’t see them having much success against Rodgers, who has thrown 53 touchdown passes in his last 23 regular season games.

Rodgers and this Packers offense average 31.7 PPG and have gone over 30 in 8 of their 11 games. If they were to hit that season average (certainly plausible), then we won’t need much scoring from the struggling Carson Wentz. The only Green Bay game in the last six weeks to stay Under came against Jacksonville. When these teams played last year, the Eagles won 34-27 (at Lambeau!), led by Jordan Howard’s 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Howard was just activated from the practice squad this week. This one will sneak Over. 8* Over Eagles/Packers

9* Arizona (4:05 ET): When they were 5-2 SU, the Cardinals were looking like one of the real pleasant surprises in the league. I figured this would be an improved outfit in Kliff Kingsbury’s second season at the helm, but the last four weeks have been a bit concerning. The Cards have failed to cover four in a row and the lone SU win in that stretch came on a Hail Mary pass at home vs. Buffalo. Following a tough loss last week at New England, they return home this week and are underdogs in a key NFC West matchup.

The Rams are 7-4 SU, one game ahead of Arizona for second place in the division. They too are off a loss as they fell 23-20 at home to San Francisco. In looking at the Rams’ home vs. road splits, the one thing that becomes apparent is that their defense seems to “fail to travel.” They are giving up 23.3 PPG on the road, not a bad number, but it’s a lot more than the 15.0 PPG they’re allowing at home. As a road favorite, the Rams are just 1-2 SU/ATS this season. They are 3-5 SU/ATS L8 games as a road fave of 3 pts or less. Also, take away the four games against the sorry NFC East and the Rams are just 3-3 SU overall this year. 

Arizona should have beaten New England last week, but missed the potential game-winning FG with under two minutes to go. That allowed the Patriots to go kick the GW. The Cardinals’ defense allowed just 179 yards. While both of these offenses have had success running the football, Arizona is 1st in yards per carry while the Rams are only 18th. I vehemently disagreed with the way the line moved in LA’s favor early in the week and think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Cardinals, who will be quite eager to beat Rams HC Sean McVay for the first time in seven tries. 9* Arizona

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Yes, I’m taking the winless Jets (0-11) this week. My suspicions over Las Vegas were confirmed last week when they suffered an atrocious 43-6 loss in Atlanta. As someone who had the Falcons +3 and was quite confident about the bet, even I could not have fathomed that result. The game was never really competitive and the Raiders turning it over five times certainly didn’t help. Something I want to reiterate from last week is just how few times Las Vegas has been favored this season. This will be only the 4th time it's happened. They are lucky to be 6-5 SU considering they have a -27 pt differential. 

With so little positives emanating from the Jets’ side of things, this is obviously a clear fade on the Silver and Black. I just don’t think that the Raiders should be favored by this many points on the road, against anybody. This matchup is obviously the “litmus test” for that assessment, but it’s worth noting that my own personal power ratings say this spread should only be -2.5! This will be the first time the Raiders close as a road favorite of 7 pts or more since 2002, which was the year they went to the Super Bowl with Rich Gannon as the MVP. That was a LONG time ago. 

Let’s try and pick out SOME positives with the Jets, shall we? RB Frank Gore should have a big game this week facing a suspect Raiders’ run defense. QB Sam Darnold, who has not thrown a TD pass in his last 19 quarters of action, is due. Before losing 20-3 to Miami last week, New York had covered three of four with losses to Buffalo, New England and the Chargers all coming by 8 points or fewer. With just one home game left after this week, this may be the Jets’ best shot at avoiding a winless season. No one wants to go 0-16, so I expect effort. Take the points. 8* NY Jets

9* Under Jaguars/Vikings (1:00 ET): Last week saw Minnesota overcome an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Carolina 28-27. The game-winning TD came in the final minute as the Vikings are now 5-6 SU on the year. They also had to overcome B2B fumble return for touchdowns to get the win last week. It’s actually quite impressive to win a game when you give up multiple defensive scores. It also means that the amount of scoring from that game was a bit misleading. With the Over now 6-0 in Minnesota home games, this total is pretty high and it’s a good time to bet the Under as they’re facing an opponent that’s bottom five in scoring.

I’m actually a bit surprised to see how much scoring Jacksonville has done lately. They’ve hit 20 in four of the last five games, the lone exception being a date with Pittsburgh’s top-rated defense, who held them to three points. Mike Glennon is now the starting QB for the 1-10 Jags, losers of 10 straight.. While his 1st start since 2017 went “okay” last week, Glennon was a bit lucky to be in position to tie the Browns late in the game. The Jags scored a late TD after a pretty questionable roughing the passer call to pull within two. Obviously you know they missed the subsequent 2-point conversion attempt.

Two of Jacksonville’s scoring drives last week totaled 44 yards. So they were probably lucky to score 25 points. They probably won’t be as lucky this week facing a Vikings defense that allowed only one touchdown last week and 10 points that weren’t off turnovers. Only two of Jacksonville’s last nine games have seen more than 52 total pts scored and the Under is 2-0 for them this season when the O/U line is above 50.0. 9* Under Jaguars/Vikings

10* AS Roma (9:00 AM ET): For the second week in a row, I’ll be fading a Sassuolo side that surprisingly found its way near the top of the table in Serie A. But last week saw them suffer their first defeat of the season and it came in emphatic fashion at the hands of Internazionale, 3-0. Their opponents for this week are also off a humbling defeat, 4-0 to Napoli, but quickly bounced back with a 3-1 showing in the Europa League on Thursday. (They lead their Group in that competition). AS Roma remains a top 6 team in the table and has the same number of wins as Sassuolo. This is a good value on them at home. 

In discussing Sassuolo’s prospects moving forward, I’ve got to go back to last week’s analysis. Yes, they entered the match with Inter on their best run in five years. But I questioned whether it would last as they had yet to face any of the current top six teams in the Serie A table. Sure enough, they were humbled on the pitch last Saturday. I’d said that prior to the three straight clean sheets, they’d conceded a total of six times in the final two October matches. So I was not surprised in the least at what happened in Milan.

Roma holds a distinct head to head advantage over Sassuolo, losing only once in the last 14 matchups. That loss occurred back in February when they were down to 10 men. So there’s a bit of revenge in play here as well for the Romans. I just don’t see Sassuolo remaining near the top of the table. Other than last week’s loss to Napoli, Roma’s recent form has been quite good. That was their lone defeat going back to September, a stretch of 12 fixtures. They have 9 wins and 2 draws otherwise, one of the draws coming against table leaders AC Milan. They also have kept SIX clean sheets during that time! 10* AS Roma

7* Roman Dolidze (10:35 ET): This is a fight in the light heavyweight division (205 lbs), scheduled for three rounds, between undefeated prospect Roman Dolidze and the 13-5 John Allen. I believe the former is quite likely to get his hand raised in this one and thus remain undefeated.

Dolidze won his UFC debut back in July against Khadis Ibragimov via a spectacular kick to the head. All seven of Dolidze’s wins have been finishes, five of them coming in the first round. So you can definitely see why he’s considered such a prospect. The only knock on him is that he’s yet to prove he can go the distance, but with his opponent having not set foot inside the cage in nearly 18 months, I don’t see that being an issue. In fact, another finish for Dolidze is quite likely here.

The reason for Allen’s inactivity is due to the fact he’s coming off a drug suspension. That resulted in his win over Mike Rodriguez from July of 2019 being overturned. Prior to that, Allen had been on a bit of a roll, winning five of six fights. But none of those were here in the UFC, so he’s yet to prove he can win at this level, at least drug-free. Allen has been submitted four different times in his career, the most recent coming in 2018 as part of Dana White’s “Contenders Series.” While Dolidze may not be able to knock Allen out here, if he can get the fight to the ground, he’s got the advantage there as well. 7* Roman Dolidze

8* Under Jackson/Topuria (7:35 ET): This fight takes place in the featherweight division (145 lbs) and is scheduled for three rounds. It pits the undefeated (and heavily favored) Ilia Topuria (9-0) against veteran Damon Jackson (18-3-1). The Under is set for 2.5 rounds, so we would need this fight to be over by the midway point of Round 3 at the latest. I do not see it getting to the scorecards.

Topuria made a successful UFC debut back in October as he fought his way to a decision victory over Youssef Zalal. While the result of that fight was left up to the judges, that was a first for Topuria, whose eight finishes to start his career included seven in the first round! Almost all of them were by submission (choke), so be on the lookout for that. The bottom line for our betting purposes is that only two of Topuria’s nine career fight have gone longer than four minutes.

Jackson is in his second stint with the UFC. The first didn’t go so well as he suffered a loss, a draw and a no contest. But the second go around has started out much better as he’s off a submission victory over Mirsad Bektic back in September. Like Topuria, Jackson has a reputation as a finisher. You’d have to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time one of his fights was decided by the judges. Since then, half of his fights have ended in the first round. One of those five was a 10 second loss. Only two of the 10 made it to the third round, one of them being the UFC return in September, but even that was over within 90 seconds of Round 3 beginning. We’re getting a finish here. 8* Under Jackson/Topuria

8* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Gonna go ahead and fade Nevada in the late night spot again as the Wolf Pack showed last week they are not a good team to lay points with. They lost outright on “the Island” (Hawaii), 24-21, trailing for the entire second half. While it was their first loss of the season, three of Nevada’s five victories thus far have come in one possession games and they’ve hardly faced a daunting schedule. Despite the outright loss last week, my power ratings say the Wolf Pack remains overvalued. 

This will be Fresno State’s first game in three weeks. They come in as winners of three straight (also 3-0 ATS) as they’ve predictably bounced back a bit from LY’s disappointing 4-win campaign. (The previous two years saw the Bulldogs go 22-6 SU overall). Over the course of the current 3-game run, FSU has averaged 37.7 points and 486.7 yards. So them getting this many points seems like quite the ideal situation. They are on a 3-1 ATS run vs. Nevada and have won five of the last eight H2H meetings outright. 

Fresno has also played well on the road the last few years, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS. They are 5-2 ATS the L7 times they’ve been an underdog, picking up three outright wins. These Mountain West rivals seem pretty evenly matched to me, so taking the points is a no brainer. Only two of Nevada’s games have been decided by more than two points and those were against UNLV and Utah State, who are a combined 1-10 SU. Something from last week’s analysis I’d like to reiterate is that Nevada’s third down conversion percentage and red zone efficiency are unlikely to be maintained. Fresno State’s defense does an excellent job at getting to the QB. 8* Fresno State

9* Baylor (8:00 ET): Since suffering B2B upset losses at the hands of Kansas State and Iowa State, #11 Oklahoma has really seized control of its destiny in the Big 12. The Sooners have rattled off five consecutive victories, averaging 50.2 PPG in the process. They’ve covered the spread in all five games as well. They were scheduled to go to Morgantown (West Virginia) last weekend, but that game had to be rescheduled for December 12th due to COVID. After such an impressive stretch, I’m not surprised to see OU a bit overvalued this week and don’t be surprised if they come out rusty after the unexpected week off. 

Baylor’s season has very much been the opposite of Oklahoma’s. They’ve won just one time since opening the season with a 47-14 win against lowly Kansas. But all five losses have been relatively close (by 11 pts or fewer) and the Bears did come from behind to down Kansas State last week, 32-31, as QB Charlie Brewer completed 80% of his pass attempts for 349 yards. Brewer also ran for 56 yards and was responsible for four touchdowns. One good sign for Baylor is that they’ve yet to lose the turnover battle in a single game this season and they’ve forced a total of eight turnovers in the L3 games. 

The Bears easily could have a better record than 2-5 SU as they’ve blown leads in three of their losses. That’s a far cry from last season when they were winning all the close games en route to an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game … vs. Oklahoma. They played OU tough in both meetings last year, losing by a total of just 10 points. Last week’s comeback should give them some much needed confidence and as good as Oklahoma has looked recently, they can’t keep performing at that level every Saturday. Baylor is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games and is 11-5-1 ATS L17 games as the underdog. 9* Baylor

10* California (7:00 ET): Oregon was a big-time fade (-13.5 @ Oregon State) on this end last week. Sure enough, they lost outright in Corvallis by a score of 41-38. I think the initial belief most bettors have when looking at a line like this is “the Ducks aren’t going to lose twice in a row.” But that can be a dangerous mindset to have, especially seeing just how shaky Oregon has been to this point. California, who is 0-3, comes in desperate here. Maybe they don’t follow in Oregon State’s “footsteps” and pull off the outright upset. But they’ll keep it close and at least cover the spread. Take the points. 

Cal isn’t as bad as its record. While they were blown out by UCLA (34-10) in the season opener, go ahead and write that result off as they played that one “impromptu” with a limited roster on a Sunday morning. Since then they’ve lost close to both Oregon State and Stanford, by a combined five points. They had the total yardage edge in both games and last week’s one-point loss to Stanford was BRUTAL as the Bears had the potential game-tying extra point BLOCKED in the final minute. This is a good number to be catching seeing as how Cal is 18-8 ATS as a dog (11 outright wins) under HC Justin Wilcox including 7-3 ATS when taking double digits (four outright wins). 

To all thinking “bounce back” (for Oregon) this week, a Ducks’ defense that gave up 532 yards to Oregon State should give you pause. In their last three games, Oregon has allowed an average of 35.0 points and 471.7 yards. In last year’s 17-7 win at Berkeley, the Ducks faced a Cal team that didn’t have starting QB Chase Garbers (injured). Garbers was 7-0 SU as the starter in 2019 and should have a “big game” here against the porous Oregon defense. Cal could easily be 2-1 SU right now while Oregon is lucky it isn’t 2-2 (as they were +4 in turnovers in a 38-35 win over UCLA two weeks ago). 10* California

8* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Tennessee comes into this game really “down in the dumps” as HC Jeremy Pruitt is firmly on the hot seat in Knoxville. An upset of #6 Florida would do wonders when it comes to saving Pruitt’s job. Not saying that’s going to happen Saturday, but taking the points is the way to go in this heated SEC rivalry where you can “throw records out the window.” If the Volunteers, losers of five in a row SU & ATS, can’t keep this one close at home and off a bye, then Pruitt is likely a “goner.” 

Since suffering its lone defeat of the season, 41-38 at Texas A&M, Florida has WON five in a row. So we’re looking at the complete opposite trajectory of Tennessee. However, with the exception of the big win over Georgia, the Gators have really been beating up on the dregs of the Southeastern Conference. The other four wins have been against: Kentucky, Vandy, Arkansas and Missouri. One more win gets the Gators into their first SEC Championship Game since 2016, likely against #1 Alabama. The thing is I don’t think HC Dan Mullen is looking for any “style points” at this juncture. He just wants the win. 

Tennessee led Auburn 10-0 two weeks ago, which was the last time we saw them. The game really swung on a 100-yard ‘pick-six’ thrown by Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano. There is some speculation that Guarantano is one of the several Tennessee players in quarantine. Because of the two week layoff, many are still expected to play Saturday. Even if Guarantano doesn’t play, look out for freshman QB Harrison Bailey to possibly provide a spark. I know things aren’t looking good in Knoxville and it’s tough to make a case, but look for UT to keep this one closer than expected. Note: Florida has been favored by 17 or more just two times against Tennessee. Both were in Gainesville and they went 0-2 ATS, even losing one outright (2001). Take the points. 8* Tennessee

8* Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn was clearly outclassed last week in a 42-13 loss to Alabama. But the good news (for them) is that the “Iron Bowl” comes but only once a year. Now they are faced with yet another Top 5 opponent this week in Texas A&M. But the Aggies looked thoroughly unimpressive in a 20-7 win over LSU last weekend in College Station. Even Auburn was able to beat “those Tigers” 48-11. Key here is this game is at Jordan-Hare, which means Auburn QB Bo Nix should play well (he usually does at home). I disagree with the line move as well and think we’re now getting a real solid value on the home dog. 

Auburn has a really strong home vs. road dichotomy this season as they are 4-0 SU here at Jordan-Hare (winning by an average of 17.0 PPG), but just 1-3 SU on the road. Going back to 2016, this will be just the 7th time that the Tigers are catching points at home. They’ve gone 5-1 ATS previously with four outright wins. Despite having lost three times this season, I still consider Auburn a Top 25 team in the country and my own power ratings have this game as a near pick ‘em. Despite being ranked #5 by the committee, Texas A&M is no Alabama (remember they lost to the Crimson Tide by 28 points themselves.

A&M has been just as inconsistent as Auburn this season and it's usually because of the offense. They only barely beat Vanderbilt in the season opener and then last week could only put up 20 on an LSU defense that had REALLY been struggling. Of the two touchdowns they scored, one was by the defense. So the offensive performance was even WORSE than you think as they put up less than 300 total yards and the lone TD scored came on a big 52-yard run. Off their last 10 SEC losses, Auburn is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS, so history says they are going to play a lot better this week. Take the points. 8* Auburn

8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn should play a lot better this week as they are back home at Jordan-Hare as opposed to facing Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The difference in play from the Tigers at home vs. on the road is quite striking as they are averaging 34.3 PPG here at home and just 19.0 PPG on the road. They’ve put up at least 29 points in every home game thus far and it was just a few weeks ago they hung 48 on an LSU defense that just held Texas A&M to only 20 last week. I like the Over in this matchup.

About that A&M offensive performance last week. They were shockingly held below 300 total yards and to only offensive TD by LSU and that was in College Station. That’s a big warning sign going into this difficult road game, but I hardly expect the Aggies to be shut out Saturday afternoon. Last week was the second lowest-scoring effort of the season and could have had something to do with the unusual layoff (hadn’t played in three weeks) due to COVID. In three of the previous four games, A&M scored more than 40 points.

Therefore, even though the Under is 7-1 in all Auburn games this season (including 5-0 the L5), this number appears to be way too low. Every Texas A&M game since they faced Vanderbilt - the lowest scoring team in the SEC - has had an O/U line of at least 54 points and four of those six games have seen at least 51 total points scored. For Auburn, this is their lowest O/U line since an Arkansas game (won 30-28) that produced their lone Over of the season. Each of the L5 totals have been 51 pts or higher w/ three at 63.5 or higher. This is all about VALUE to me. 8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn

8* Kansas (12:00 ET): If you’ve been betting against Kansas this year, chances are you’ve done quite well for yourself. The Jayhawks currently check in with an 0-7-1 against the spread record and have yet to win a game straight up. The Over is 7-0-1 in their games as they’ve given up an average of 49.8 points. But a brief glimmer of hope appeared last week in the form of QB Miles Kendrick, who came in and completed 11 of 16 pass attempts for 166 yards and two touchdowns. We’d seen Kendrick previously this season, but that relief effort almost assuredly will earn him the starting gig for this Saturday’s game at Texas Tech. 

This is a dangerous number for Texas Tech to be laying this week. (Update: TT coach Matt Wells tested positive for COVID). Sure, Kansas isn’t good. But neither are the Red Raiders, who come in at 3-6 SU and ATS. They are off a narrow loss to Oklahoma State, 50-44, where they covered the 12.5-point spread due to a pair of late scores. While Kansas is universally recognized as the worst team in the Big 12, Texas Tech is definitely the second worst. Their three wins this season have come by a total of 10 points. One of them was against a FCS opponent (Houston Baptist) where they had to stop a 2-point conversion in the final minutes. This is the first time they’ve been favored since that game, which was the season opener. 

Thanks to Kendrick, KU matched its season high in scoring last week with 23 points (against TCU). This week they face a Red Raiders defense that just surrendered 50 points and 539 yards to an Oklahoma State team that was without its top two running backs. I predict the Jayhawks will achieve a new season-high in points this week as Texas Tech is giving up 39.3 points and 470.6 yards per game. As bad as Kansas has been in 2020, it seems improbable that they could go an entire season without covering a game. They allowed THREE non-offensive TDs last week, which won't happen again. Texas Tech doesn’t deserve to be favored by this many points against anybody and remember they are the last team to lose to Kansas (37-34 last season). My power rankings say this number is off by a full TD. Hold your nose and take the points! 8* Kansas

8* Louisiana (8:30 ET): Normally, with the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. unbeaten Coastal Carolina) on deck, this might be considered a “look ahead” spot for Louisiana. But not with the Ragin Cajuns’ history against Appalachian State. This is a major revenge game for the Sun Belt West Champs as they have lost eight consecutive times to App State, including twice last season. But it “feels” like this is the 1st time Louisiana (who is ranked 24th in the country) is the better team and I’m taking them plus the points Friday night. 

Appalachian State just hasn’t been quite as strong in 2020 compared to past seasons. This will be the first time since 2017 that the Mountaineers WON’T be playing for the conference title. They are just 2-7 ATS this year, though that can be pinned on the large pointspreads they face on a weekly basis. The only two SU losses for ASU this season have come against a pair of unbeaten teams, Marshall and Coastal Carolina, both by double digits. While there’s no shame in either loss (both on the road), those were the only two decent teams the Mountaineers have faced to this point. 

Louisiana also lost to Coastal Carolina, 30-27, with the game decided on a last second field goal. They’ve won five in a row since and while there have been numerous close calls all year long (four wins by 7 pts or less), last week wasn’t one of them as they put up 70 against hideous LA Monroe. Also, the Ragin Cajuns hold a 31-14 win over Iowa State (on the road), which keeps looking better and better as the Cyclones continue their ascent in the Big 12 standings. Louisiana is going to be the more motivated side Friday night. 8* Louisiana

8* UT Arlington (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is off to a 1-3 start (straight up), but that record doesn’t do justice to how competitive the Mavericks have been in those four games. Rather you should look to the fact they are a perfect 4-0 ATS. They only lost by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 5 at Louisiana Tech and by 12 at Arkansas. The Tulsa team that they are facing Friday is 0-2 SU and ATS and hasn’t done much in the way of scoring. When these teams met in Arlington last season, the Mavericks were 14 pt winners, holding Tulsa to just 59 points. This is a matchup where taking the points makes a lot of sense. 

Covering as underdogs is nothing new for UT Arlington. After all, they are a remarkable 70-38 ATS the L108 times taking points including 3-0 already this season. The fact they’ve been able to cover all of these games has been a testament to their defense as the Mavericks are shooting below 40% from the field thus far. They were able to hold Arkansas to just SIX points over the final 10 minutes on Wednesday, but it still wasn’t enough. You have to figure they’re going to start shooting better moving forward and I say that happens here.

Tulsa’s season has started with losses to TCU and South Carolina, both of which were part of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City. Despite only losing by 5 to TCU, the Golden Hurricane never led in the second half. They jumped out to an early 9-0 against sloppy South Carolina, but after that were pretty much dominated and ended up losing by 11. This is the first time Tulsa has been favored and UT Arlington is on a 14-5 ATS run vs. teams with losing records. Tulsa’s three-point shooting has been dreadful and I smell upset here. Take the points. 8* UT ARLINGTON

8* Niagara (8:00 ET): These two upstate New York teams have combined to play just ONE game thus far and it was Syracuse delivering a thoroughly unimpressive 85-84 win over Bryant. While you’ll always take a win, given the fact the Orange were favored in that game by 22 points, winning 85-84 is not what they had in mind. The fact they made only 40% of their field goal attempts against such a lesser foe is NOT a good sign moving forward and the Orange could be looking ahead to next week’s game vs. Rutgers, who is a Top 25 team. Take the points in this matchup. 

It would not be a shock to see Niagara keep this game close. After all, last year they lost by only 14 (71-57) here at the Carrier Dome and that was despite shooting just 32.4% from the field, including 6 of 27 from three-point range. You’d expect them to shoot better this time around. The 2019-20 season was not a good one for the Purple Eagles offensively, but they should be better at that end of the floor this season. They return LY’s leading scorer Marcus Hammond, who is one of the top players in the MAAC. 

The fact that Jim Boeheim’s son (Buddy) is the best player on the team is an insight into the relatively sad state of Syracuse basketball right now. No longer is this program a power on the national level. They are probably looking at a middle of the pack finish in the ACC. While they are likely to win tonight, their struggles in the season opener reiterate this is not a team you want to lay a ton of points with. Failing to cover against Bryant drops the Orange to 1-5 ATS the L6 times they’ve been a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. 8* Niagara

10* USC (7:00 ET): Two unbeaten teams here meeting in the Mohegan Sun Arena for what is a de facto home game for UConn. It seems as if it’s been FOREVER since the Huskies were relevant on the national scene, but they are 2-0 right now and averaging 85.0 points/game. Still, neither win could be considered all that impressive as one was against Central Connecticut State and the other a non-cover vs. Hartford. Tonight is the Huskies’ stiffest test to date as they face a 3-0 USC team. 

Southern Cal has shot 50% or better in all three of its games thus far and played exceptional defense in the last two. After holding Montana to just 33.3% shooting last Saturday, the Trojans were even stingier vs. BYU, limiting the Cougars to a 27.5 FG% in what was termed an “upset” two nights ago. But you wouldn’t have known USC was a 3.5-point dog by the way they played Tuesday. They won by 26 (79-53) on this same floor. Both Mobley brothers finished with double-doubles and Drew Peterson led the scoring with 19 points. 

I’ve got USC rated as the better team here. If this were just a “one-off” at the Mohegan Sun, I’d be less inclined to back them, but that’s not the case. After watching the Trojans destroy BYU here two days ago, I’m comfortable in pretty much disregarding any advantage UConn might otherwise have by playing this game within the state border. It’s not as if fans are a factor in 2020. I’ve been very impressed with the USC defense the L2 games while UConn’s scoring average is inflated by one big game against a terrible opponent. UConn had its game (vs. Vanderbilt) scheduled for Tuesday cancelled and will struggle with USC’s size. The Trojans have won six straight going back to the end of last season. 10* USC

10* North Texas (6:00 ET): This has been a College Football season like none other before it and few things embody that assessment more than the fact Louisiana Tech did not play a single game in November! The Bulldogs last played Halloween night when they “treated” backers to a 37-34 upset of UAB (in overtime) as 12.5-point home underdogs. North Texas can certainly empathize with La Tech’s recent plight as the Mean Green also went a full month without playing a game before getting to take the field each of the last two weeks. But they are the team in better “game shape” heading into this one and I’ll follow the money (line move). 

I should note that my own power ratings actually disagree with the line move here. But I’m disregarding those rankings in this instance as they are obviously unaware of the long layoff for Louisiana Tech. Also, my power rankings have overestimated the Bulldogs before. I made the mistake of taking them in an October home game vs. UTEP, which they won by only 4 points despite being a two touchdown favorite. Louisiana Tech has not outgained a single FBS opponent this season and had dropped four in a row ATS (1-3 SU) before the upset of UAB where they were outgained by 104 yards. The Bulldogs are bottom 20 in the country in total offense, which will be a welcome reprieve for a struggling North Texas defense. 

Believe it or not, but the Mean Green were considered a “sharp side” going into last Saturday’s tilt w/ UTSA, which they promptly lost 49-17 as 1-pt underdogs. Clearly taking sharp money again this week, they hope for a better result now that they’re back in Denton. Like North Texas, La Tech struggles defensively. The difference is they are going to have to contend with an offense that is top 5 in the country, averaging 536.9 YPG! The home team simply has a massive edge offensively in this one. You would not know that by watching North Texas’ last two games, but the last time I took them they put up 52 points and 768 total yards in a blowout win over Middle Tennessee. They are the right side here as LA Tech should not be favored on the road. 10* North Texas

8* Oregon State (10:00 ET): The Pac 12 has wasted little time getting conference play underway and here we have Oregon State travelling to Pullman to face Washington State. Both teams are 2-0, however Wazzu is 0-2 ATS as both wins were close. OSU is coming off a 114-point effort last Friday, albeit against a non-DI opponent (Northwest Col). But the Beavers also have already picked up a win over a conference opponent, beating Cal 71-63 in the season opener. 

Oregon State is hoping to avoid a repeat of what happened LY here in Pullan when they arrived as 3.5-point favorites and lost outright, 89-76. That was a bad shooting night for the Beavers, at least from three-point range where they finished just 2 of 13. That shouldn’t happen again here as the Beavers are deep and one of the most experienced teams in the entire country. Six players are averaging in double figures thus far, led by senior Ethan Thompson, who has started every game in his career. 

Washington State had to rally past both Texas Southern and Eastern Washington to win by four and three points, respectively. The Cougars shot poorly in the first game, then actually trailed 16-3 early against an Eastern Washington side that was down to just seven scholarship players (COVID). Looking at the injury report here, I see a lot of question marks for Wazzu and that’s not good for a team that simply isn’t very deep. They have the worst record in the Pac 12 over the past two seasons as well. 8* Oregon State

10* South Dakota State (7:00 ET): The better team is getting points here, at least in my opinion. Even if you may not agree with that assessment, there certainly is no denying that the underdog is the more “battle-tested” of the two teams. South Dakota State has already played #11 West Virginia, Utah State & St. Mary’s. The Jackrabbits have emerged from that stretch with a 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, Iowa State has played only one game (Ark-Pine Bluff) and is without starter Tre Jackson. 

All three of South Dakota State’s games were a part of the Bad Boy Mowers Classic, which was held in nearby Sioux Falls. They were actually favored to beat St. Mary’s (-3), which shows this team is already respected in the marketplace. That line was probably also based on the fact the Jackrabbits had just clobbered Utah State by 24 points the day prior. Playing their third game in three days, SDSU had an “off-shooting” night vs. SMU (36.2 FG%), which included 2 of 12 from 3-pt range. They even missed 12 of 27 FT attempts. Keep in mind that the Summit League contingent was able to outrebound West Virginia in the season opener! 

Iowa State will miss Jackson as he was one of the team’s best three-point shooters. Though they ended up winning comfortably (80-63), the Cyclones actually trailed Arkansas Pine Bluff at halftime here in Ames in the season opener. South Dakota State returns the fourth most minutes in the entire country from last season, so this is a veteran team that won’t be intimidated by playing in a Big 12 building. (Home court advantage obviously doesn’t mean much right now anyway). They’ve been off since Friday, giving them plenty of time to recoup after the Bad Boy Mowers Classic. 10* South Dakota State

10* Over Paris St Germain/Manchester United (3:00 ET): It’s approaching “must-win” territory for PSG on matchday five of the Champions League. The French side is tied with Leipzig (6 points each) for second in Group H and their chances of progressing to the knockout stage is very much in doubt right now. Leipzig will be expected to take the full three points from Istanbul earlier in the day, so there’s a chance PSG could be three points off second place heading into the final matchday. That would be considered quite the disappointment considering they were runners-up in last season’s Champions League. 

Manchester United enters Wednesday knowing it needs just one point from its final two matches to move on to the knockout stage. The Group H leaders have taken nine points from the first four matches, which includes a 2-1 win over PSG in the reverse fixture back in October. While struggling a bit in the Premier League, there’s no questioning the Red Devils’ scoring prowess here at Old Trafford in international competition. They’ve notched 24 goals while winning their last seven European home outings including nine in the two Champions League outings thus far. 

PSG’s four UCL matches have been curiously low-scoring affairs. They’ve scored only five goals while conceding four. Despite Man U not having much urgency here, I expect this to turn into another high-scoring affair at Old Trafford. PSG has found the back of the net in all four Champions League matches thus far and let’s not forget about their scoring on the domestic side as they lead Ligue 1 with 30 goals in the current campaign. But the fact they conceded twice to Bordeaux over the weekend should give you pause about taking them in this spot. Over is the call. 10* Over Paris St. Germain/Manchester United

10* Michigan State (7:00 ET): Michigan State has had a curious lack of success against Duke through the years. Their only win in the L10 tries against the Blue Devils came in the Elite Eight of the last NCAA Tournament played (2019), a 68-67 “upset” as 2.5-pt underdogs. Sparty is 0-3 SU all-time vs. Duke when matched up in the Champions Classic, plus they lost outright to them LY in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge 87-75 as 6.5-pt chalk. Things are different this year, however. I’ve got MSU rated as the better team, so this is looking like a good value. Take the points.

Michigan State is already 2-0 with wins over Eastern Michigan and Notre Dame. They defeated Eastern Michigan 83-67 as 22.5-pt favorites and then Notre Dame 80-70 as a 9.5-pt favorite. The Spartans shot better against Eastern Michigan, which is to be expected, but also played better defense vs Notre Dame. Joshua Langford is back after missing all of last season and the final 18 games of the year prior, which is a big boost. Also, don’t let that final score vs. ND fool you. Sparty led by as many as 28 in the 2H. 

After having its first game (vs. Gardner-Webb) cancelled, Duke finally opened its season on Saturday with an 81-71 win over Coppin State. They too opened a sizable lead (17 pts), but were unable to hold on to it. Still, the Blue Devils never even came close to covering the 39-point spread in that one. That was due to a combination of letting Coppin State make 10 three-pointers plus 22 turnovers. Duke is a young team and home court advantage doesn’t matter much in this scenario. MSU is 16-6 ATS after scoring 80+ points and I like them as a dog early in the season. 10* Michigan State

8* Salzburg (12:55 ET): Group A of the UEFA Champions League figured to be dominated by two European powerhouses (pun intended), Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid. Bayern, the reigning UCL Champions and best side in all of Europe, has already assured itself a spot in the knockout stage with a 4-0 start. But Atletico Madrid, who has been so dominant in La Liga this season, has struggled here on the international stage with just 5 points from their four matches. That has left the door open for the “other two sides” in the Group, Lokomotiv Moscow and Red Bull Salzburg, who meet for the second time on Tuesday. 

Lokomotiv has three draws and just one loss so far in the group stage. The loss was to Bayern and just a narrow one at that (2-1). They’ve drawn Atletico twice and the other was 2-2 with Salzburg. While that would seem to make the Russian side the favorites at home Tuesday, they are not. While they’ve fared better than expected so far in the Champions League, Lokomotiv has won just once in its last nine fixtures. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw with Akhmat Grozny over the weekend. 

Salzburg has the dubious distinction of having conceded the most goals here in the group stage (14). But that can be excused by the fact they’ve had to play Bayern twice. They also lost to Atletico 3-2. But they’re not facing either of those sides here. While the path to the knockout stage is very narrow for the Austrian outfit, they can keep their hopes alive with a win here. They are the better side and should pick up that elusive first Champions League victory. On the domestic front, Salzburg leads the Austrian Bundesliga and scored EIGHT goals in their win over the weekend. 8* Salzburg