8* Arizona (10:30): As noted in the Stanford-Cal writeup, things have not gone well for Arizona in 2016. The bloom is definitely off Rich Rodriguez's rose here in Tucson as his Wildcats are a horrendous 1-9 at the betting window and only 2-8 straight up. Their season is all but officially over. They have not won since beating Hawaii back on Septmber 17th. Since then, it's been a 0-7 mark against the Pac 12 w/ all but one loss (ironically to Washington) coming by double digits! Why then an endorsement in this spot? Well, how about the fact that Oregon State is favored. The Beavers, who are 2-8 SU themselves, but 7-3 ATS, were last favored against a FBS foe last October (as in 2015) vs. Colorado (-1), a game they lost outright here in Corvallis.

Admittedly, it's pretty hard to state a case for the underdog in this one, though I will point out that despite a 3:1 ticket count on OSU at most shops, the line has come down. So I'm not the only one thinking this way. So let's make a case AGAINST Oregon State shall we? Not only will this be the first time they've been favored over a FBS opponent this year, it will be just the second time they have NOT been a double digit dog! The Beavers have just one Pac 12 win (and I was on it!) in Gary Andersen's two years here, that being a 47-44 overtime win over Cal last month. They are also dealing with the news of WR Seth Collins, who earlier this week was admitted to the hospital with an "illness" and listed in critical condition (now in "good" condition). That will be difficult for the players to overcome. Collins was second on the team in receiving yards.

Arizona beat Oregon State last year, 44-7 as 10-point favorites in Tucson. So a lot has changed in the last 365+ days. There are many reasons that the Wildcats have faded in 2016, but chief among them has been the injury to QB Anu Solomon. I'd also like to point out that the Wildcats have had to play arguably the seven best teams in the conference consecutively. I'd argue that there's not much of a difference between these teams, only the ATS records, which again reflect perception from the start of the year. No way OSU should be favored by more than the standard three points here. 8* Arizona

10* Oklahoma (8:00 ET): Perhaps we were too quick to write off the Big 12? With all of last week's chaos, a second life has been breathed into the conference's CFP aspirations, though it will still take a lot more chaos for the eventual champ to still get in. The two most likely reps are Oklahoma and West Virginia, who meet Saturday night in Morgantown. Anyone who follows my picks on a regular basis should know that I naturally gravitate toward home underdogs in situations such as these. But not here. Much has been made of the fact that WVU brings in the Big 12's best defense. But guess what? Here they'll be facing the league's best offense. This is not necessarily strength on strength though; OU is +17.6 PPG and +152 YPG in Big 12 play while WVU is only +11.6 PPG and +95 YPG.

West Virginia beat Oklahoma all the way back in the '08 Orange Bowl, 48-28, as 10.5 pt underdogs. That outright win gave (at the time) interim HC Bill Stewart a job he did not deserve. But, the fairytale did not last long w/ Stewart getting dismissed after only three seasons (despite going 9-4 SU each year) and just as the school was set to join the Big 12. Why do I bring any of this "ancient history" up? Well, because, I find it somewhat ironic that Stewart's successor (Dana Holgorsen) has had no such luck beating OU despite now taking them on an annual basis. Since joining the Big 12, the Mountaineers are 0-4 SU vs. the Sooners. Furthermore, the MOV has gotten larger w/ each passing year: 1, 9, 12 and 20 have been the final margins. Last year, in Norman, OU won 44-24 as six-point favorites thanks to a dominant fourth quarter.

So why does WVU think it will be different this time? Well, it probably has something to do w/ their unique 3-3-5 defense which is holding Big 12 foes to an average of just 20.2 points per game. I concede to the Morgantown faithful that holding Texas Tech and TCU to 27 pts total is really impressive. But this here will be the best offense they've seen so far. Oklahoma comes in averaging a whopping 44.2 PPG led by the awesome backfield tandem of Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. Lost in the Sooner resurgence is the fact the defense is giving up an average of only 321 yards the L3 games. I don't think WVU QB Skylar Howard, who threw three picks last week, will necessarily "take advantage" of the - at times - soft OU pass coverage. The Mountaineers were actually outgained by Texas - by 153 yards - last week. Meanwhile, OU rolled up 566 yds in a three touchdown blowout of Baylor. Of the five meetings as conference rivals, this is the shortest spread the Sooners will have faced. I think it's telling they're favored here and it's for good reason. 10* Oklahoma

8* Montreal (7:05 ET): By any objective measure, the Habs have been one of the best teams in the league thus far. The return of a healthy Carey Price has obviously been pivotal. He has a .948 save percentage and the team is 10-1 in his starts. But with backup Al Montoya between the pipes in two of the last three games, we find the team entering Saturday on a three-game losing streak. The game Price lost was an overtime affair to Florida where they outshot the Panthers 37-24. The game winner was a bizarre shot off a shattered stick. It was also Montreal's first home loss of the season. Yesterday, they lost again by one goal (3-2 at Carolina) despite another massive edge in shots (33-18). Tonight, I'm calling for a bounce back against a Toronto team they've beaten nine straight times. 

The Maple Leafs have won six of eight and scored six goals in each of the last four wins. But, as any regular of mine can attest, I view teams as stocks and this is a clear case of "sell high" (w/ Toronto) and "buy low" (w/ Montreal). Earlier in the season, Montreal beat Toronto 2-1. While the Habs have the league's second best goal differential, the Maple Leafs have still been outscored by two goals this season (despite the recent scoring surge). Not only are the Canadiens 10-1 at home so far, they're outscoring teams by two goals per game here.

Earlier I mentioned that Montreal has outshot its previous two opponents, despite losing both times. Well, Toronto has been consistently outshot despite recently winning. This seems like an unsustainable practice. They'd actually been outshot in four straight games before the 6-1 win over Florida Thursday. Over the L5 games, they're giving up an average of 37.2 shots per game. Four times in November, they've given up at least 43 shots in a game. For the season, the Leafs are giving up 33.9 shots per game, the highest average in the league. They are also 1-7 SU on the road, allowing 3.7 gpg. While this may be the second game of a back to back, Montreal has Price in goal and I repeat; this is a tremendous buy low/sell high spot w/ these two Atlantic Division rivals. 8* Montreal

8* California (5:30 ET): It's been awhile since Cal won "The Big Game." To be exact, it's been six straight years losing to rival Stanford and only one of those games ('11) hasn't been decided by double digits. They couldn't beat the Cardinal any of Jared Goff's three years as the starter here in Berkeley, so why now? Well, this is certainly the most "down" David Shaw's team has been in his time in Palo Alto. Stanford has fallen way short of preseason expectations (were top 10) and this will be just the third double digit spread they've seen all year. The first two were both at home and they didn't cover either time. Furthermore, against Arizona (worst team in the conference) three weeks ago, they were only asked to lay 3.5! Take the points.

One might take a look at recent form, on both sides, and conclude that this line is justified. But let's take a look at who each team has played, shall we? Stanford has won three in a row, but played Arizona, Oregon State and Oregon, arguably the three worst teams in the Pac 12. Cal has lost three in a row, all by three touchdowns or greater, but they've had to face USC, Washington and Washington State. Those are arguably the three BEST teams in the Pac 12. Those respective streaks have had a massive influence on this line and like I said earlier, Stanford failed to cover as DD chalk against Kansas State and Oregon State, at home. Cal has been a home dog four times this year and three times won outright, beating Texas, Utah and Oregon! A win here and bowl eligibility is still a possibility for the Bears.

Stanford, prior to LW against Oregon, had some real problems scoring. In fact, they've topped 27 points only twice all year and that was against Arizona and Oregon. Had it not been for that miraculous defensive TD at the end of the game vs. UCLA back on 9.24, then the team would have gone five consecutive games w/o topping 17 points. This three game win streak has changed perception, but again, they faced the three weakest teams in the league. Cal has proven to be far more dangerous at home this season, averaging 39.2 points per game. The underdog will most definitely be up for this rivalry game. 8* California

8* East Carolina (4:00 ET): Some of my biggest disappointments in all of College Football this year reside in the AAC. East Carolina is one (Cincinnati definitely another) as the Pirates are 3-7 both SU and ATS following last week's 55-31 home loss (as 6.5-point favorites!) to SMU (were -3 in TO's). ECU has covered just one of its last seven games, that being a 41-3 decision over lowly UConn here in Greenville. With no chance of bowling, you may wonder why I'd choose now to back Scottie Montgomery's team. Well, for one, I think there's a ton of value here as this marks just the fifth time since 2012 that an ECU team has been an underdog at home. They are 4-0 ATS previously, including a SU win over NC State earlier this year. Also, this is more of a play AGAINST Navy, who is off two somewhat miraculous wins the L2 weeks. Take the points. 

With only one returning starter on offense, I have to say that I thought Navy would take a step back this year. But Ken Niumatalolo is doing a great job here (9th season in Annapolis) as he has his Midshipmen at 7-2 (SU) and in position to win the AAC West Division. That being said, give the nod to Niumatalolo, but this team has had some good fortune in 2016. Like when I took them last month against Houston and they were outgained 481-382, yet still came away w/ a relatively easy 46-40 victory due to three Cougars turnovers. Then we move to the L2 weeks. They somehow beat Notre Dame, 28-27 as seven-point dogs, despite allowing the Fighting Irish to score on every single drive except one. Last week against Tulsa, they were outgained 576-501, but managed to hold on for a 42-40 despite it appearing they fumbled w/ under two minutes to go and that should have given Tulsa the ball. (Refs didn't see it that way).

Navy has been a solid money-maker the last several seasons under Niumatalolo, but this will be the most points they've laid to a FBS opponent all year. As I said before, East Carolina is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog the L5 seasons and not only did they upset NC State back in September (33-30, +6.5), they upset Va Tech last year. In fact, three of those four games have seen the Pirates prevail outright! Navy does not have a great pass defense and despite it's 7-2 SU record has actually been outgained this year! By the way, this is a make-up game as it was originally to be played on 10.13 but was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew. It's also a revenge spot for ECU as they lost 45-21 in Annapolis LY as only five-point dogs. 8* East Carolina

*10* TCU (12:00 ET): I absoutely love this spot for the Horned Frogs, who are an unranked team favored over the #13 team in the country. I don't have the exact record in front of me, but it's always a trap when the unranked team is favored against a Top 25 opponent as in the public will tend to bite on the ranked dog, often to no avail.  Furthermore, TCU is off their second bye in four weeks. While they did not fare well the last time off the bye (lost 34-10), that was a trip into Morgantown. After following w/ another disappointing overtime loss (as 10-pt favorites) at home to Texas Tech, Gary Patterson's team picked up - by far - its most impressive win to date as it thrashed Baylor in Waco, 62-22 as seven-point dogs (I was on them) two weeks ago. While they're now rested, OSU is off a tough 45-44 home win over Texas Tech LW that came down to a missed XP and they gave up 500+ yards. This is also their fifth game in as many weeks. Lay the points.

Situationally, I love the Horned Frogs here and it's a revenge spot to boot. Last year, in what was a battle of unbeatens (both 8-0 SU), they lost outright in Stillwater 49-29. TCU was #5 in the country then and OSU was #12. Fast forward to this year and because of that result plus the Horned Frogs' disappointing record, we are able to now get a cheaper price in Ft. Worth. Homefield has proven vital in past meetings between these two as the host is 9-1-1 SU all-time. Shockingly, TCU has lost three home games this year - two in overtime - after losing none (13-0 SU) the previous two seasons. The three losses, to Arkansas, Oklahoma & Texas Tech, have come by a combined 12 points. By the way, despite losing LY's game to the Pokes by 20, the Horned Frogs actually outgained them 663-456 (were -4 in TO's)!

As maligned as QB Kenny Hill has been this year by the TCU faithful, he is on pace to break the single season passing record at the school. This offense also ran for 431 yards two weeks ago in Waco. Oklahoma State is by no means as dominant as their 8-2 SU record shows. While the manner in which they lost to Central Michigan was ridiculous, they also did lose to Baylor by 11. A five-game win streak has followed, but three of those wins have come by seven points or less. OK State is 6-1 in Big 12 play, but just +32 yards per game. Meanwhile, TCU is 3-3 SU in Big 12 play, but +43.2 YPG. Yes, the better team is favored. 10* TCU

full analysis soon

8* Chicago (9:05 ET): On Tuesday, the Blackhawks were shut out for the first time this season. The loss, while their second in the last three games, was also just the second in the last 10 games. They've had two days off to stew over it and I can see the rest of this Western Canada trek going quite well. Particularly tonight's date w/ the Flames, who they'll be meeting for a third time already this season. Though Calgary has gotten surprisingly good goaltending each of the L2 games, wins over Minnesota and Arizona, their overall save percentage still ranks 29th (out of 30) at .884. This has been their best two-game stretch in goal all year. I expect Chicago to break out offensively here. They're moderately priced, so I'll take 'em.

In all due respect, the Flames aren't very good at anything. They rank 26th in both goals scored and allowed. Their power play is dead last in the league (9.7%) and their penalty kill is 28th (75.0%). Thus, it shouldn't surprise you to learn that I, personally, have them rated among the worst teams in the entire NHL (only Vancouver worse right now). They have a -18 goal differential on the year and are only 3-6 SU in home games. While goaltending has been the primary concern this year, the Flames have also only scored seven times in the last six games. They've been fortunate that Chad Johnson has turned in B2B solid efforts between the pipes, but again one was against fellow bottom-feeder Arizona. Also, it looks like it will be Brian Elliott starting tonight. Calgary's big FA acquisition in the offseason, Elliott has been a disaster thus far, turning in a .853 save percentage his L4 starts. Oh, by the way, the Flames' best player Johnny Gaudreau is also out w/ a broken finger. The team managed to beat Arizona w/o him, but Chicago is on a whole different level.

The 'Hawks check in on top of the Central Division w/ 24 points. That's the most points of any team in the Western Conference. Only the Rangers and Habs have more. So this shapes up as a real mismatch (I have Chicago 6th in my own power rankings). The Flames give up 3.6 goals per game at home. Look for the Blackhawks to take advantage of that. 8* Chicago

8* Loyola Chicago (12:30 ET): I'm looking to go against St. Joe's here simply because the Hawks owe the books some money. What do I mean by that? Well, last year saw them finish w/ one of the best ATS records in the country (24-11). In fact, no team covered MORE games. Earlier this week, recall we faded another team that was quite profitable last year (IPFW) and they were blown out. Here we can grab points at a neutral location (Virgin Islands) w/ a team that has already won three times this year. That would be Loyola Chicago, who has predictably dominated three overmatched foes by an average of 37.4 points per game. Meanwhile, St. Joe's was lucky to escape Toledo in the opener before a hot shooting night enabled them to get by Columbia.

There hasn't been a game yet where Loyola has failed to shoot better than 50% from the floor while holding the opponent under 37%. Of course, Alcorn State, Indiana-Northwest and Eurkea is a real "rogue's gallery."  But dominating those teams is what was expected from the Ramblers and exactly what they delivered. In the past, this team has taken advantage of getting the points as in a 22-12 ATS record the L2 seasons as an underdog. While picked to finish near the bottom of the Missouri Valley, this is already the best start for the program since '97.  The three big wins have given this team some confidence. Remember they nearly upset Wichita State in the MWC Tourney last year. Milton Doyle (16.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is a great player and a couple of key transfers have made this roster much better than we've seen in past years.

As for St. Joe's, they are by no means as strong as last year's 28-8 SU squad. Their two best players - DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles - both departed. One returning player (Pierfrancesco Oliva) is already out for the year and another - James Demery - is dealing with a foot injury and listed as questionable here. We saw the Hawks struggle in the opener - at home - against Toledo. That was a game they trailed most of the first half and never led by more than four points. They won't shoot as well here in the Virgin Islands as they did vs. Columbia. 8* Loyola Chicago

8* Anaheim (10:05 ET): The Ducks, while probably not at where they'd like to be, have certainly been kind to me over the past week or so. Most recently, they delivered a 4-1 win for me over Edmonton on Tuesday. The Oilers are a team that I said might possibly have peaked and the same holds true for tonight's opponent, New Jersey. The Devils come in riding a five-game winning streak. They won in overtime Tuesday, 2-1 over the Dallas Stars. Not to take anything away from the team's win streak, one of their longest in recent years, but it is a little misleading. Consider they swept a pair of home and home's with Carolina and Buffalo, who are two of the worst teams in the league. A key absence will hurt the Devils here too. I'm on Anaheim again.

The Devils have actually played seven overtime games already, which is pretty crazy. Through strong defensively, particularly between the pipes w/ Corey Schneider, you have to wonder how long they can keep it up. Especially now that they are going to be w/o Taylor Hall, who was tied for the team lead in goals (5) and points (12). Hall's absence could be felt most on a power play that is already 0 for its last 21. As good as Schneider has been, it seems unlikely that he can keep bailing the team out to this degree.

For Anaheim, this is a revenge spot as they dropped an early season game in East Rutherford, 2-1. That was not an OT win, but it should be pointed out that three of the past four Devils wins have been in games that went past regulation. So NJ has definitely had some luck go their way. Anaheim I believe will battle all season long w/ San Jose for the top spot in the Pacific. Here at home, they've been pretty dominant, outscoring opponents by 1.3 goals per game. They also give up fewer shots per game than do the Devils. John Gibson is likely to get the starting nod in goal and he has a better save percentage at home than on the road. The Ducks also have a massive edge on "special teams" (power play and penalty killing) in this matchup.  8* Anaheim

10* Carolina (8:25 ET): Both of these teams are off brutal losses last week. Fortunately, I can say I went AGAINST the Saints as they lost in one of the wildest ways I've ever seen, a blocked XP returned for a GW two-point conversion. They had just tied Denver 23-23 when the deciding play took place. Either way, I was not in danger as I had the Broncos +3. But, still, it's always nice to see one of those plays go your way. New Orleans, in my mind, has greatly exceeded expectations this year. They are 4-5 SU SU, but it wasn't that long ago that they were 0-3 SU and most (myself included) were writing the epitaph for the Drew Brees-Sean Payton era. I think that despite the Panthers' problems, the road team is way overvalued in this one and I'll be laying the points.

Carolina has probably been the league's biggest disappointment to this juncture. No matter how you sliced it, regression was going to be a reality for this team coming off LY's 15-1 SU campaign. It should be pointed out however that no team that has won 15 or more games in a regular season has won fewer than 10 the subsequent season. At 3-6 SU right now, the Panthers are definitely threatening to become the first. But despite this poor record, they haven't played that poorly. It's just that many of the bounces that went their way in 2015 have gone against them here in 2016. They led the league in turnover margin LY (+20). This year, they are 29th (-7). Four of their six losses have been by three points or less. They outgained Kansas City last week, 341-256, but shockingly blew a 17-0 lead. The Chiefs never led until the final play.

This is also a revenge spot for the Panthers, who lost 41-38 in New Orleans back in Week 6. Their secondary was torched by Brees (400+ yds) in that game, but it was obviously played in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. It's no secret that when you take the Saints outdoors, their offensive production tends to go down significantly. That's what I expect here. Carolina's defense has looked a lot better since the bye, admittedly facing some weak offensive opponents. But they didn't give up a touchdown last week and are allowing just 311.7 YPG the L3 weeks. As a home favorite of three points or less, the Panthers are 7-2 SU/ATS L3 years. Thursday night games tend to favor the superior team, especially when they're at home, and despite what the records say, Carolina is the superior team here. Consider that the lookahead line for this game (posted in the summer) was Carolina -10. This is a really great value play. 10* Carolina

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Though they let me down in the last game, I'm coming back with the T'wolves here. Despite a poor 3-7 SU/ATS record, they have actually outscored opponents this season by 1.8 PPG. Only ten teams have a better point differential. They rank third in the league in offensive efficiency, behind only Golden State and Toronto. How is it that they have all these impressive stats, but an unimpressive record? Well, the "issue" is that all three of their wins have been lopsided blowouts. Those wins came at the expense of Memphis, Orlando and the Lakers, two of them here at home. Here, the opponent can't be any worse as it's Philadelphia and this is a rare spot to actually fade the 76ers off a win! Lay the points.

When I first checked the score Tuesday night, I was happy w/ what I saw. Minnesota led a tough Charlotte team by double digits at the break (were +2) and seemed well on their way to snapping an 0-14 SU skid when off a double digit win (they had blown out the Lakers by 26 Sunday night, my 10* Game of the Week). Unfortunately, what followed was a dreadful third quarter that saw them get outscored 36-17. This was not the first time the T'wolves have blown a double digit lead this season. In fact, it was the sixth time! In eight of the team's 10 games this year, they have led by double digits at some point in the first half. The third quarter has been a killer all year long and defensively the team needs work (28th in efficiency). Fortunately for tonight, they face the worst offensive team in the sport. 

Philadelphia averages a woeful .947 points per possession, last in the league. Only four other teams are under 1.00 PPP. Per 100 possessions, the Sixers are being outscored by 12 points, which is also (easily) the worst mark in the league. They did beat Washington last night, 109-102, as seven-point dogs. But frankly, the Wizards aren't very good. Note this is a virtually identical setup to the last time Philly was off a win. After upsetting Indiana at home, they had to go on the road the following night and w/o rest got blown out by Atlanta, 117-96. They've failed to cover both game this year when unrested, losing by an average of 17.5 PPG. 10* Minnesota

 10* Under Jets/Flyers (7:05 ET): Winnipeg was a team that was stumped for by many reputable sources as a potential breakthrough team this season. Now we're starting to see the Jets take flight with four wins in the last five games and they currently occupy second place in the Central Division. The streak was jumpstarted by an 8-2 demolition of Dallas up in Manitoba and since then they've scored at least three times in every subsequent win. This would seem to be a pretty advantageous matchup here w/ a Flyers team that's dropped four of five and twice allowed 5+ goals in doing so. But, I'll be staying away from the side here and instead play the total where believe it or not, I feel the Under is a strong value.

Winnipeg may be averaging 4.0 goals over its last five games, but that number is heavily skewed by the one eight-goal explosion over Dallas. They have also managed to post that average while at the same time averaging only 25.8 shots per game! That's a ridiculous .845 save percentage posted by opposing goalies during that time, which is beyond putrid. Simply put, the Jets cannot continue scoring at this rate. On the positive front, they did just shut out Chicago their last time out, which is not easy to do. That result bodes well for a number of reasons, most notably the Jets are 6-0 Under this year when coming off a division game. They are also 8-1 Under the L3 seasons coming off a shutout win!  Oh by the way, despite all the scoring they've done of late, the Under has cashed in each of the Jets' last four games! 

I mentioned earlier that the Flyers have given up 5+ goals in two of their last five games. Well, fortunately for our cause here, both of those games took place on the road. Each of their last three games have seen exactly five total goals scored, all 3-2 finals one way or another. The Jets are averaging, for the year, only 24.6 shots per game on the road. That's very low. Over the L5 games, Philadelphia is giving up just 25.6 shots per game. That's strong. So, I anticipate they'll limit the Jets' scoring opportunities here. The goaltending numbers have been ugly, but if anything, they have to improve simply b/c they can't get any worse. 10* Under Jets/Flyers

10* Elon (7:00 ET): This line has skyrocketed, but may have reached it apex. Regardless, I would bet ASAP. To the casual observer, this seems like a curious game to experience such a significant line move. However, USF is still w/o Jahmal McMurray, who is expected to be suspended for the first six games of the year for an "undisclosed violation." This is a significant loss for the Bulls. McMurray was their top returning scorer from a year ago (15.2 PPG). At times, he was the only reliable offensive option for a team that would finish 8-25 SU overall. An 84-73 win over non-lined Florida A&M does little to dissuade me that USF is going to be in a lot of trouble w/o their best player. Lay the points here.

Elon College, who comes by way of the Colonial, and is off a wild 100-95 loss to Charlotte Monday where they were 4.5-pt home favorites. No the game did not into overtime. While overall shooting was actually in favor of the Phoenix, what ultimately undid them was the three-point line. Charlotte shot a preposterous 10 of 14 from three-point range. Elon took nearly twice as many three-point shots (26), but made one less. I can't stress enough how rare it is to see a team go 10 of 14 from three-point range. South Florida certainly won't, that's for sure. Furthermore, the FT line hurt Elon on Monday as well. They were only 18 of 26 from the charity stripe while Charlotte went 22 of 26. Considering they scored 100 pts in their season opener (vs. lightly regarded William Peace), I don't think the Phoenix will have much trouble scoring here. 

These schools have never met before. Look for Elon's Steven Santa Ana to be the difference maker here. He went for 32 points in the last game and made five three-pointers. As far as the price range goes, Elon is 10-3 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points, including 2-0 the L3 seasons. USF is 6-18 ATS as a home dog in that same range, including 0-4 the L3 seasons. Bottom line is that the oddsmakers made this line way too low and will pay for it. 10* Elon

10* Over Spurs/Kings (10:35 ET): With the Warriors naturally receiving so much attention and the Clippers off to an incredible start, some will want to make the case that the Spurs are "down" right now. How soon we forget that this team thrashed the Warriors, in Golden State, on Opening Night! Including that 129-100 win, Greg Popovich's team is 5-0 SU and ATS on the road, so I wouldn't be panicking too much about the fact they have two losses at home. Defensively, this was the top team in the league last year (easily), but this year has seen them drop to sixth in efficiency. Offensively, they rank in the top 10. While the Under is 4-0 their past four games, I'm on the Over here as they face an opponent known for its lack of defense. 

Sacramento has not played since losing 122-120 in overtime at Portland Friday night. I'm proud to say I was on the Over in that game. The game-tying bucket by the Kings at the end of regulation ensured I would have a winning ticket. There's been only three games this season where the Kings have not given up 100+ pts in regulation. Two of those were against Phoenix and New Orleans, both of whom are among the worst teams in the league. Under Dave Joeger, there has been a concerted effort to slow down the pace, which is a bit concerning given how the Spurs also play at a slow pace, but the bottom line here is that the total is simply way too low. There have been just a dozen or so Kings' home games the L3 seasons where the total has been less than 200 pts.

The Under is 4-0 the last four times these teams have played. Earlier this year, these teams matched up here in Sacramento and it ended up being 102-94 in favor of San Antonio. But the total there was 203, which is significantly higher than tonight's O/U line. Neither team shot particularly well on Oct 27, most notably Sacramento as they were just 40% from the field and 6 of 20 from three-point range. San Antonio was coming off the big win over Golden State there. I'll call for this to be the Spurs' best offensive game since the season opener and the Kings should score enough to do their part. 10* Over Spurs/Kings

9* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): This is always one of the marquee matchups in the NHL due to the Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin factor. Tonight should be no different as both teams have looked good in the early part of the season, though the Capitals have dropped B2B games. Though they're on home ice, I'll call for that streak to reach three straight. Those were "bad losses" they suffered to Carolina and Columbus and to think they'll simply be able to "turn it on" here against a superior opponent seems like "fool's gold." The Pens not only eliminated the Caps from LY's postseason, they beat them earlier this year (3-2) despite being -11 in shots. Good value on the road team here.

Pittsburgh is 10-3-2 w/ nine of those wins coming in regulation. Last time out, they dominated Toronto 4-1, putting an incredible 49 shots on goal. It was their second straight game w/ 40+ and now they have 90 total in B2B games. As expected, the offense is humming along. It ranks 8th in the league in goals per game and 3rd on the power play. Crosby has played in only nine games, but scored seven goals! The goaltending situation is also good w/ both Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray turning in solid performances on a consistent basis. It's more likely to be Fleury tonight. The Pens have had three full days to prepare for this game. The only other time they've had that much time to prepare for an opponent this year resulted in a 5-1 win (at Anaheim).

Washington has scored only five goals in its last four games and none of those have come from Ovechkin. Yes, they did win at Chicago in the last week, but immediately after they lost to a bad Carolina team. The team probably deserves better given how few shots they tend to give up, especially here at home, but if they couldn't beat Pittsburgh with 41 shots on goal (how many they had last time), then there may be no hope. With the Pens having so much rest and the Caps playing in the second game of a back to back, that's a major advantage for the road team, especially seeing as what a heartbreaker it was last night in Columbus for the Caps (potential GW goal was disallowed).  9* Pittsburgh

8* Ball State (7:00 ET): This is not a good spot for Toledo to be laying nearly three touchdowns. First off, they are fresh off erasing the ghosts of many years' past by beating rival Northern Illinois last week, 31-24 as seven-point chalk, on the road. That win snapped a six-game losing streak to the Huskies. Next week, the Rockets have a huge showdown w/ unbeaten Western Michigan, which likely will determine the MAC West. So to say 4-6 Ball State won't have UT's full attention might be a mild understatement. I'm taking the boatload of points w/ the underdog in this one.

Ball State comes in having failed to cover four in a row. But it should be noted that they were favored in three of those contests. Twice they lost outright, including the last game (vs. Eastern Michigan), so the oddsmakers were off in their view of this team. But, as we so often see, there's now been an overreaction in the marketplace. Earlier in the year, the team had no issues covering a 12.5-pt spot at Central Michigan. That's their lone cover in the L6 games, but not coincidentally the only time the oddsmakers had been more than generous. Believe it or not, the Cardinals have been favored in six of their last eight games. They are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this season and only been outscored by an average of less than two points per game!

After posting B2B victories over Toledo in 2012 and '13 (both winning years for the program), BSU has lost each of the last two seasons. Last year was a 24-10 defeat in Muncie (as 5-pt dogs), a game that really wasn't very competitive. But the Cardinals are definitely better this year under Mike Neu and I'm not convinced Toledo is as strong. To me, anything above 17 points is a bargain here. Keep in mind that last week BSU led Eastern Michigan 21-0 before imploding. They were still ahead 41-40 w/ 1:35 remaining, however (lost 47-41). A -9 TO margin has done them no favors this season (had five LW). Toledo, meanwhile, trailed NIU by double digits in the second half before rallying for the SU victory. They were slightly outgained for the contest. Though possibly w/o their star RB James Gilbert (now listed as probable though!), the Cardinals have enough weapons on offense (525 yds LW) to keep it close thanks to a leaky Toledo defense. 8* Ball State

8* Illinois State (7:00 ET): Unless you're a real college basketball die-hard (like me!), then you are probably unaware that IPFW was one of the best ATS teams in the nation last year. The Mastadons were an impressive 21-8 at the betting window, the best such record for any team that played more than seven lined games. True to form, they covered in this year's season opener at Arkansas. As 15-pt road underdogs, they lost 92-83. They've since played another game, which was not lined, and beat Kenyon College 117-60. That's a meaningless result. Tonight, they visit Normal, IL and I feel the result will be "anything but normal" for IPFW, at least as far as the pointspread is concerned as the number is way too small. Lay the points.

Illinois State dropped its season opener, as a two-point road favorite at Murray State. It was a back and forth game throughout w/ things not decided until a GW three-pointer was made w/ 1.5 seconds remaining. Note that the biggest lead in the game - eight points - was held by ISU. The Redbirds also led by seven w/ 3:23 remaining. So it was a tough loss. A big problem is that while they shot at roughly the same percentage as Murray State from three-point range, the Racers made twice as many. That's an 18-point edge right there, which is tough to overcome on the road. Murray State is also a good team, certainly better than IPFW. It speaks volumes that ISU was favored on the road against them. 

IPFW will not shoot better than 60% again like they did vs. Kenyon. Note they shot just 36.2% against Arkansas. Illinois State is 24-8 SU its L32 home games. They have also won 28 of the last 37 times (straight up) they have been favored. With the number so short here, I like the Redbirds to win and cover. 8* Illinois State

8* Anaheim (10:05 ET): To say that the "vultures are circling" in Edmonton would be grossly unfair. But there can be no doubt that the young team is coming back down to Earth following a surprise start. This will be the second straight game that I go against them. Sunday, I backed the Rangers, who in retrospect were ridiculously priced. At almost plus money, I was able to grab the best team in the sport right now (my opinion) and they rewarded me with a relatively easy 3-1 victory. The Oilers have now dropped six of eight and as I mentioned in my analysis for Sunday, their hot start was a byproduct of playing a lot of bad teams. Anaheim is not a bad team, despite what may have happened to them last time out.

The Pacific Division is the weakest in the sport. With the injury to Kings' goalie Jonathan Quick, things are really wide open right now and credit Edmonton for taking advantage early on. But I expect this race to come down to the Sharks and the Ducks. On the road, Anaheim has had some tough luck, losing three games in extra time. Last time out, they were straight blanked by Nashville, but I'll write that one off. Since starting 0-3-1 (all road games), the Ducks have gone 7-3-2 overall. Though John Gibson struggled against the Preds on Saturday, I still believe him to be a fine option between the pipes and Jonathan Bernier is proving himself to be a quality backup. Over the L5 games, Anaheim is allowing only 24.6 shots per game.

Oilers' netminder Cam Talbot is trending in a bad direction right now w/ a .893 save percentage his L4 starts. His team is also giving up plenty of shots per game (30.5).  The Ducks have really had the Oilers number the last few seasons, winning eight of the past nine matchups, including the final four of last year. 8* Anaheim

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I'm bucking some pretty serious history w/ this play. Over the past three seasons, the T'wolves are 0-14 straight up (3-11 ATS) when coming off a double digit win. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark already this season. But, despite what you've just read, I'll be taking them at home tonight against Charlotte. This is a much better Minnesota than in years' past and while they are only 3-6 SU so far, their three double digit wins have resulted in a positive point differential for the season (+4.0 per 100 possessions). They are #2 in offensive efficiency, trailing only annual leader Golden State. Charlotte has been impressive in its own right so far, but I expect them to start coming back down to Earth. Take the points.

While their three wins have come by a total of 78 points, the T'wolves' six losses have been by a total of only 53 points. Two of the losses were to OKC and the Clippers. The other four were all single digit defeats, three of them by four points or less. Typically, and this goes for all sports, point differential and the ability to win by large margins are better predictors of future success (or lack of it) than a team's actual record. In the case of Minnesota, I like what I've seen and right now would consider them to be the leading contender to nab the 8-seed in the Western Conference. My *10* Game of the Week Sunday was on them as they destroyed the Lakers 125-99, paced by a career-high 47 points from Andrew Wiggins. I actually like Karl-Anthony Towns even more, so there's a real solid foundation for 1st year HC Tom Thibodeau.

This is a tough spot for Charlotte following B2B close losses to Toronto and Cleveland. Expect this team to still finish in the top 4-5 of the Eastern Conference as their strong second half LY went largely unnoticed. But, as I just said, I just don't like the spot. Yes, they are 5-1 ATS laying points thus far and surprisingly that includes three road games. But this is only the Hornets' fifth road game overall and the previous three teams they were favored against - Milwaukee, Miami and Brooklyn - should all be considered inferior to this opponent. Jeremy Lamb is still out for the visitors as well. 8* Minnesota

8* LSU (8:00 ET): This will be my second time going w/ LSU in this young season. Given my record, you should already have concluded that the first went well. It did as they beat up on Wofford, 91-69 as only a seven-point choice. Now, they face another team off a high scoring Opening Night win, that being Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles come off a 101-96 victory, but that was with double overtime and against a team named "Tougaloo," a NAIA school. Win or not, that result is certainly not a good sign when stepping up in class from a NAIA opponent to one from the SEC. Meanwhile, this is probably a DROP in class for LSU. Lay the points.

Little defense was played in that USM-Tougaloo matchup. How do I know? Well, look no further than the box score which reveals that the Golden Eagles shot 56.7% from the floor, including 7 of 14 from three-point range. I don't see a duplication of those numbers tonight, in fact, I see a massive dropoff. Unfortunately, that coincides with a worrisome USM defense which permitted a NAIA school to shoot better than 50% - on the road. Speaking of the road, it has not been kind to USM in recent years, particularly in this price game. The team is just 3-25 SU in true road games the L3 seasons not to mention 0 for its last 42 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points.

LSU, on the other hand, is 26-7 SU its L33 home games including nine straight victories as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. They are 47-2 L49 at -12.5 or higher in Baton Rouge. Two years ago, they downed Southern Miss by 20 here (were 17-point favorites). Just to rehash from my analysis Friday: though it is by no means "addition by subtraction," I think this team will be better off this year w/o Ben Simmons, who often struggled to integrate himself into the flow of the offense. Another positive in that the Tigers won't be consistently overvalued. Remember, at one point last season, they were 9-3 SU in SEC play!  8* LSU

9* Under Sharks/Hurricanes (7:05 ET): Typically, I don't look to go Under 5-goal totals, but San Jose leaves me no choice. The Under is 12-2-1 in all Sharks' games this year as the team ranks 5th in goals allowed (2.3 per game) to this points. If the total were to move to 5.5, all the better. Not only are the Sharks top five in goals allowed league-wide, they are top three in penalty killing (89.2%). Meanwhile, they rank in the bottom third in the league in goals scored per game. Thus far, as you might guess from the O/U record, there are only two Sharks' games all season that exceeded the five-goal total. Take the Under here.

Martin Jones is a hot goalie right now. The San Jose netminder has turned in a .959 save percentage the L3 games, all wins for the team. Remember that it was this time last year that the Sharks reeled off six straight wins on an East Coast trip. They're now halfway there in 2016. The opponent here, Carolina, is certainly a drop in class from the previous three - Washington, Florida and Tampa Bay, all top teams from a year ago. The Sharks held that aforementioned trio to just three goals total and shut out the Caps. It should be pointed out that the last time San Jose lost, they were shutout. Over the last 5 games, they are averaging only 26.4 shots per game. But that's been mitigated by allowing only 24.2/game. All year long, they've made things easy on Jones by allowing just 25.2. That's tops in the league!

As stated earlier, Carolina is pretty awful, but they actually rank top five in shots permitted (27.9) and that number dips down to 25.4 at home. They are in off a shocking 5-1 win over Washington, their highest scoring effort of the year. They held the Caps to only 21 shots, a phenomenal effort. Believe it or not, but the Hurricanes' PK actually ranks higher than that of the Sharks. They are second in the league when down a man. With two of the top three PK's in the league and both teams in the top five in shots allowed, I anticipate a low-scoring game here. Likely Canes starter Cam Ward has a .930 save percentage his L4 starts. 9* Under Sharks/Hurricanes

10* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Similar to yday's play on Nevada, we will use fairly "worthless" results to our advantage in handicapping this game. Delaware is 2-0 SU, but one of those wins came at the expense of something called "Goldey-Beacom." The Blue Hens did, and I give them credit here, upset Bradley their last time out as eight-point underdogs. Yet they're even more significant dogs for tonight's trip to Philly as they take on LaSalle. This despite the host Explorers being off an outright loss (were -2.5) at cross-town rival Temple Friday. That was an overtime game for the record. Given Temple just lost last night at home to New Hampshire, one might seek to conclude that this seems like a "real steal" to take the points. But the oddsmakers clearly aren't buying it and nor am I.

Had the results discussed above not unfolded they way they did, one has to wonder what this line would have been. I think LaSalle should be commended for still getting to 92 points despite shooting only 42.3% against Temple, including 9 of 28 from three-point range. I think that it's more than reasonable to expect the Explorers to shoot better tonight in their own gym. Yes, overtime aided them in getting to 92 points, but scoring 81 in regulation is "nothing to sneeze at." This is a relatively deep team now, with two freshman starting. Ten different players saw action Friday and all of them have started at one point or another in their careers.

Though they're 2-0, I see Delaware really struggling to keep pace in this one. They've scored just 64 and 63 points in their two wins and beat a D-II school by just eight points. They've shot no better than LaSalle to this point and have actually been worse from three-point range (27.6%). So you can see that one team obviously plays at a much faster pace. A key to the Blue Hens success so far has been atrocious shooting from their opponents. Both Goldey-Beacom and Bradley shot 32% from the field. Sure, the Delaware defense needs to be credited there, but only to a point. LaSalle will shoot better, play faster and is simply the Blue Hens' most talented opponent yet. I expect a blowout here, so lay the points. 10* LaSalle

10* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Ohio finds itself in strong shape to win the MAC East (they have the tiebreak over Miami b/c of head to head). All they have to do is win one of these final two games, this one vs. Central Michigan or the home finale vs. Akron, and they'll get a chance to possibly face Western Michigan and cost the conference millions of dollars. (W Michigan is unbeaten and if they win out will go to a New Year's Six Bowl Game). Unfortunately for Frank Solich and his Bobcats, I believe the division clinching win won't come until next week. Yes, it appears as if they and Central Michigan are heading in opposite directions, but the Chippewas get this one at home and still are looking to become bowl eligible. I'm going with them Tuesday night.

Bowl eligibility looked like a mere formality after CMU started the season 3-0 SU and found itself favored to beat a Power 5 school (Virginia) on the road back on September 24th. But the Chippewas lost that game to Virginia, 49-35, and have been in free fall mode ever since. They are just 2-5 SU the L7 games overall and have lost B2B games outright as the favorite. First, as 12-pt chalk here in Mt. Pleasant, they lost 27-24 to Kent State. Then, two Fridays ago, they were humbled by resurgent Miami 37-17 in Oxford. Because they are 1-6 ATS these L7 games, now they're not even favored to win on Senior Day. The players do not want to leave their bowl fate up to next week's road date w/ Eastern Michigan. Besides, a 6-6 SU MAC team is by no means guaranteed a bowl. It would behoove CMU to win out.

Motivation aside, I think the situation and matchup is favorable to the home team here as well. This is Ohio's third time playing on the road in the last four games. While they're perfect 5-0 ATS away from Athens this year, the Bobcats have been held under 20 points in three of those games. While they beat Buffalo 34-10 their last time out (Nov 3), it was a 413-392 total yardage disadvantage for Solich's team. It was a 27-10 game at halftime due to a bevy of Buffalo miscues, two of which resulted in Ohio scoring drives that totaled ONE yard (two FG's)! Central Michigan once explosive offense will get things going against an Ohio pass defense which has given up 741 passing yds the L2 games. Chips QB Cooper Rush, a three-year starter, still has an outside shot at becoming his school's all-time passing leader w/ a strong finish. 10* Central Michigan

8* Over Nets/Clippers (10:35 ET): Let's take a moment to "tip our cap" to this start to the season the Clippers are having. Through 10 games, they are 9-1 SU and outscoring foes by an almost otherworldly 14.8 pts per 100 possessions. To put that number into some perspective, the Warriors finished +11.6 pts per 100 possessions in LY's record-breaking 73-9 SU finish. Granted, it's still a relatively small sample size thus far for LA, but clearly they are in a "good place" right now. Particularly on the defensive end where they are only allowing .927 points per possession. Again, to put the number into some perspective, San Antonio led the league LY by allowing only .966 pts per possession. Only one other team (Atlanta) allowed fewer than one point per possession last season.

That all being said, I think that it's safe to say the Clips won't be able to maintain their current pace, particularly at the defensive end. Right now, they are only giving up an average of 84.0 PPG at home, which I have to believe would be a NBA record. For the year, teams are barely shooting 40% from the floor against them. We have already started to see a bit of regressions as their last two opponents - Oklahoma City & Minnesota - both topped 100 points. Granted, those were road games, but still my points stands. They're going to start giving up more points - both per possession and per game - moving forward. Offensively, I think they are just fine. An average of 107 PPG is impressive, but by no means unsustainable.

A key here w/ tonight's opponent, which is Brooklyn, is that they are currently playing at the second fastest pace in the league, trailing only Phoenix. The Nets have been suprisingly competitive this year and are right behind the Clips at the betting window w/ a 7-2 ATS mark (LA is 8-2). But they still give up 107.6 PPG (22nd in league) while scoring 106.3 PPG themselves. On the road, those numbers get even higher to 111.5 and 110.7 respectively. To give you an idea about the effect their pace of play is having, last time out they faced Phoenix, who shot only 37.4% but still scored 104 points. The Nets also turn the ball over a lot (17.1 per game) and that should lead to a lot of additional scoring opportunities for LA here.  Take the Over. 8* Over Nets/Clippers

8* Nevada (10:00 ET): Both teams here already have a game played under their respective belts. Given the pointspread for tonight's matchup, you might be surprised to learn how those first games each went. Then again, considering Loyola Marymount's opponent was something named "Vanguard University" (NAIA school), I think it goes w/o saying that a win there was all but assured. But just to show how little that result meant, the Lions are still sizable underdogs to Nevada here despite the Wolfpack taking it on the chin in their opener (at St. Mary's). We'll use these results to our advantage here as I believe the home team to be significantly undervalued as a result. Lay the points.

There are some wild shooting numbers to report on from each team's game on Friday. LMU saw Vanguard University shoot a preposterously low 23.2% from the floor (16-69) including 1 of 18 from three-point range. Those Lions (also Vanguard's nickname) had no "roar" whatsoever as they shot an unconscionable 5 of 35 after halftime and finished w/ only 17 pts in the second half! Needless to say, when LMU jumped out to a 20-2 lead, the game was basically over. But let's not make any conclusions that LMU is significantly better than we thought because of that result, which was a glorified exhibition game. This team is being picked to finish near the bottom of the West Coast Conference and is outside the Top 200 in most reputable power rankings systems.

Nevada ran into one of the top WCC teams Friday night, that being St. Mary's, who shot 60 percent from the floor en route to an 81-63 victory. I don't know what it is about the Gaels and early season home games, but they always seem to shoot ridiculously well in them. Keep in mind that St. Mary's opened the year ranked #17 in the country, so this is a massive drop in class for the Wolfpack. I have seen this team projected for as high as a third place finish in the Mountain West this year. Loyola Marymount was very bad defensively last year (allowed 74.8 PPG) and beat only ONE top 150 RPI team all year, that being Pepperdine in double OT.  Home team rolls in this one. 8* Nevada

10* Cincinnati (8:25 ET): A significant line move took place during the week on this Monday Night matchup w/ the Bengals going from a small dog to either a pick or small favorite. This might seem curious to you as the Giants have been an ever so slightly better team in the first half of the season and are at home. But Cincy is in off its bye and should be in position to turn in one of their best performances to date. The last time we saw them, they tied another NFC East team (Washington). When you look at who they've lost to this year (Steelers, Broncos, Cowboys, Patriots) there's certainly no shame there. The Giants were kind to me last week as I had them in a win and cover over the Eagles. But they were outgained there and pretty fortunate to win thanks to two early Carson Wentz interceptions. I'm on the Bengals here.

The Bengals posted one of the best ATS records in the league last season as they finished 12-3-2. That typically leads to an overrating in the marketplace the following year, so I'm not surprised to see them currently standing at just 2-5 ATS. Still though, despite the perception that this team has taken a massive step back, offensively at least, it really hasn't. QB Andy Dalton is third in the league in yards per attempt (8.16). WR AJ Green is #1 in the league in receptions and #2 in receiving yards. This passing attack should find success against a Giants defense that is ranked 25th against the pass and is dead last in the league in sacks w/ 11. Though outgained somewhat significantly by the Redskins in London, it should be pointed out Cincy led that game by double digits in the third quarter. Given how top heavy the AFC has become, it is almost imperative that the Bengals win tonight or their playoff chances get even slimmer.

The Giants have won and covered three straight games to get back in the thick of a tight NFC East race. While they never trailed the Eagles last week, they were essentially gifted a 14-0 lead and had to hold on from there. They barely gained over 300 yds in the contest while at the same time giving up 443. This offense simply cannot run the ball effectively as they are dead last in the league, averaging just 68.3 YPG! Over the L10 NFL seasons, home teams averaging less than 70 YPG rushing are 7-23 ATS when failing to run for 100 in any of the L3 games. To me, this one boils down to the fact the Bengals are a little better than their overall record shows while the G-Men are a little worse. 10* Cincinnati

10* Under Lightning/Islanders (7:05 ET): The oddsmakers were forced to move the the total from 5 to 5.5 here and because of the change, I now feel there's some value on the Under. Under is how I played the last matchup between these two and it was a winning ticket w/ Tampa Bay winning 4-1 (number was 5.5). Going back to last year's playoffs, the Lightning have not been a favorable matchup for the Isles as they've now lost to them six straight times, including twice already this season. TB has scored four or more times in five of the wins, but overall the offense has largely been feast or famine this season. I'll go w/ the latter here and take advantage of a significant line move.

Tampa Bay's last three games have all gone Under. That includes the one at home vs. NY. But that performance was bookended by a pair of losses where the team scored only one goal. Saturday saw them lose at home, 3-1 to San Jose. That game had all the elements of an Under as the Lightning forced only 26 shots and allowed only 20. It was a rare "off night" for goaltender Ben Bishop, who still sports a .940 save percentage his L4 games. Bishop was not between the pipes vs. the Islanders on Thursday, but he was back on November 1st and stopped 26 of 27 shots there.

The Islanders seem to be regressing this year. Their 5-7-3 record is a bit unfair when you consider that they've either been tied or ahead in the third period in seven of the 10 losses. Saturday was another painful one as they allowed the game-tying goal w/ just 13.6 seconds remaining in regulation and then lost in OT to Florida, 3-2. It was their seventh loss in the past nine games overall. I do think Jaroslav Halak is the right choice in goal here as his save percentage at home is .915. Over the L5 games, the Isles have averaged just 2.4 goals per game. I would not be the least bit surprised to see exactly five total goals scored in this one again (just like last time), but "an Under is an Under" and that's what I'll call for tonight. 10* Under Lightning/Islanders

8* NY Rangers (9:35 ET): This is a tremendous price on the better team. The Rangers are tied for the most points in the league right (22) and I, in fact, have them rated as the best team the NHL has to offer right now. That's reflected in a +27 goal differential, which is easily a league best. There's only one other team better than +14 and it's Montreal. Meanwhile, Edmonton is showing signs of slipping w/ B2B losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas. The Oilers may be in first place, but that's the weak Pacific Division and they've outscored their opponents by only seven goals this year.

All of the Rangers' 11 wins this year have come in regulation and they are averaging a league best 4.1 goals per game. At the same time, they are #4 in goals allowed, giving up just 2.4 per game. Critics may want to point to a home heavy schedule to this point (10 of 15 games played at MSG), but they have zero difficult winning at Calgary last night, 4-1. Though they were outshot for the game, 36-28, it was 4-0 in the Rangers' favor entering the third period last night. They have scored an incredible 33 goals the last seven games. With this being the second game of a back to back, we won't have Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes, but Antti Raanta has been just as effective. Raanta sports a .926 save percentage in his four outings.

Cam Talbot is the goalie for Edmonton and of course he used to back up Lundqvist until being dealt here before last season. It was a strong start to the season for Talbot, but he's regressed of late w/ an .887 save percentage his L4 starts. That includes him allowing four goals on 30 shots in a loss to the Rangers back on November 3rd. Since starting 7-1, the Oilers have dropped five of seven. It should be pointed out that the list of opponents early one were really weak as the list includes Calgary (twice), Buffalo, Carolina and Vancouver. I just don't see Connor McDavid and company ready for this giant step up in class. 8* NY Rangers

10* Seattle (8:25 ET): I respect New England and like everyone else have them as my #1 rated team in the league right now. But the idea of Seattle getting this many points is too good to pass up. Since 2012, the year Russell Wilson became the team's QB, there has been only one occasion where the Seahawks have been getting a touchdown or more. It was in that 2012 season and as eight-point dogs they covered in San Francisco (Thurs night game), a 13-6 loss. Yes, it's a short week for the 'Hawks and the Pats are off a bye. But Seattle just doesn't get blown out as both losses this year have come by six points or less. Just twice since '12 have they lost a game by more than a TD. Those losses came by 9 and 10 points respectively and both were one-score games entering the fourth quarter. Take the points.

This is of course a rematch from the Super Bowl two years ago and that will dominate the headlines. The Patriots won that day, 28-24, but as well all know it should have been Seattle repeating as SB champs as Wilson was interecepted at the goal line on a foolish play call. That game, obviously, at a neutral field, was a pick em. I don't think enough has changed since that time to justify this line, even w/ the Patriots being at home. Tom Brady has been terrific, but lost in the numbers is the fact he's faced some really weak teams. Remember that the Pats got a major break facing Pittsburgh w/o Roethlisberger. At home this year, New England has actually been outgained.

The Seattle defense has been a bit shaky in recent weeks, but gets safety Kam Chancellor back tonight, which is critical. The defense is still allowing only 16.7 PPG for the year and allows fewer YPG than does the Patriots. In what projects as a low-scoring affair (yes!), taking the points is the way to go. I look for the Seahawks to feel disrespected by the line here and come out w/ a chip on their shoulder. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Seattle play its best game since the bye week. They covered the only other time they were a dog this year, which was the tie at Arizona. Remember about the edge West Coast teams usually have in primetime games (look up 'Circadian Advantage'). 10* Seattle

10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): The T'wolves let me down last night, losing to the Clippers 119-105. While there's no shame in losing to the best team in the league right now, I had thought Minny could at least take advantage of a generous spread at home w/ LA coming in off a hard fought victory (at OKC) the night before. The problem was they fell behind early and could never really recover. That's a rarity as the T'wolves entered last night as the highest scoring first quarter team in the league. They've blown multiple double digit leads already and I feel they're far better than the 2-6 SU record as they are still own a positive point differential for the season!

Meanwhile, it's probably about that time to start fading the Lakers. They've won five of six, including a 126-99 beatdown of New Orleans last night, on the road no less. For those struggling to explain the Lakers' surprising succes this year, it's actually pretty easy. They removed the biggest ballhog in league history from their lineup (you know who) and the offense has improved dramatically. But that offense still hasn't been as efficient as Minnesota's has been. I take a look at this line and can't help but feel its decreased far too much from what it would have been just a few days ago. I give the Lakers credit, but they are clearly playing "above themselves right now" and it's only a matter of time before they begin to regress, in my view.

Playing in the second game of a back to back has not been kind to the Lakers in the past; they are just 5-30 SU in that spot the L3 seasons! Yes, they did beat Atlanta earlier in the year w/o rest. Double digits wins like last night have been rare for this team in recent years and they are just 3-9 SU/4-8 ATS off a DD win of any kind the L3 seasons. Last night saw the team shoot better than 55% from the floor (!) and that can't possibly carry over to tonight's game. If anything, LA is due for an off-shooting night. Again, in terms of efficiency, the T'wolves have been the better offensive team this year. To sum it all up, what we have here is one team that's been overperforming its expectations by a wide margin and another that's undeperforming. I look for a return to normalcy tonight. 10* Minnesota

10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): In a season bereft of compelling storylines, I gotta ask - "How 'bout them Cowboys!?" Dallas is 7-1 SU, which is the best record in the NFC, and for our purposes they come in w/ the best overall spread record in the league (7-0-1 ATS). Since pushing against the Giants in Week 1 (only SU loss), they have covered seven consecutive games. They've been the underdog in three of them, but not the last two when they took on Philadelphia and Cleveland. A 35-10 win over the moribund Browns needs no investigation, but it should be pointed out they needed OT to get by the Eagles. While I tip my cap to the job done being done by HC Jason Garrett and certainly QB Dak Prescott, I'll argue that the Steelers are the Cowboys toughest opponent to date. In a must win for the Black & Gold, I'll lay the points.

Now may not seem like the proper time to stump for Pittsburgh. They've lost three in a row, including 21-14 at Baltimore last week. That marked Ben Roethlisberger's return from injury, but he and the offense simply didn't look the same. Some of that, however, has to do with facing one of the league's top defenses. In fact, the Ravens are giving up the fewest yards per game in the league right now (281.6) and only 17.8 PPG (6th). Dallas is actually fourth in points allowed (17.5), but 10th in yards, so there's some bend but don't break there. They've also been lucky to face some pretty weak offenses. I anticipate a big bounce back from the Steelers offense here. In three home games w/ Big Ben at the helm, this offense has averaged 32.6 PPG w/ the QB posting a 12-2 TD-INT ratio. Roethlisberger was actually a lot better in the second half after the slow start LW. 

Historically, there is a lot of value in taking the Steelers as a home favorite of three points or less. They are 6-1 SU/ATS the L3 seasons in that price range. The three-game losing streak is also key as it's very rare to find Mike Tomlin's team on this kind of slide. This is just the third time in his tenure that they've lost this many in a row. Coming off a division loss, they are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS the L3 seasons. Dallas is due to drop one. 10* Pittsburgh

10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): This is a time to "hold your nose" and take the points. There's no doubt that Cleveland is the worst team in the league this season, but there's also no doubt that San Francisco is 31st. They come into Week 10 at 1-7 SU and ATS. That lone win and cover came all the way back in Week 1 when they beat the Rams 28-0. Since then, it's been seven straight ATS losses where every defeat has come by at least a touchdown. Five have been by at least 17 points. None of that can make this play sound even the least bit appealing, but this is one of the biggest spreads of the year so far this NFL season and in a division game, it's an automatic take for me.

Arizona is off its bye and there's a case that they're much better than their 3-4-1 SU record. They have a +39 point differential for the year, which is largely owed to a pair of blowout, one over Tampa Bay, the other against the Jets. But also recall, I played against this team two weeks ago (was my *10* Game of the Week) when they lost out in Carolina, 30-20. The game was not as close as the final score indicated as they were down 24-0 late in the first half. This is quite the banged up team right now w/ 10 players currently on season-ending IR. The loss of LT Jared Veldheer looms large for an offensive line that was already struggling to protect Carson Palmer. By the way, this offense has seen its production go way down from last year. They've been held to 21 pts or less in five of eight games.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Cards will be w/o Tyrann Mathieu here and that is another huge loss. Mathieu is the key player for Bruce Arians' defense. Note that this is the second meeting of the year between these two. The first saw Arizona win 33-21, but total yardage was basically a wash (228-286) and the 49ers had more first downs (25-17). That was w/ Blaine Gabbert as QB as well for the Niners. Colin Kaepernick is an upgrade at the position and in the loss LW to the Saints, threw for nearly 400 yards. The Cardinals should feel lucky that they scored 33 pts despite < 300 yards and seven-game ATS losing streaks in this league are rare. Look for the dog to find a way to stay within this number. 10* San Francisco

8* Rice (2:00 ET): This little school in Dallas, TX was quite kind to me on Saturday as the football team (had just 1 game all season) went to Charlotte as 10.5-pt underdogs and won outright, a ~SIGNATURE~ 10* ULTIMATE POWER release! Now, I'll look to back the school's basketball program as they look to erase the memory of a bankroll busting campaign last season. The Owls finished 2015-16 at 7-18-2 ATS, which was the worst pointspread record in the country of any team that played at least 10 games. But they were only outscored by an average of 4.7 PPG. I'll make the case that it will be a nice little bounce back season for Mike Rhoades' team. Take the points.

James Madison is the opponent for Rice on Sunday and the Dukes have already played a game. They lost it, 62-55, at Old Dominion. JMU did not shoot the ball well from any range, going just 39.6% overall, including 6 for 30 from three-point range. They also didn't help themselves the few times they got to the free throw line, going only 7 of 13 there. JMU actually led (by one) at the half, but allowed the first basket of the second half and trailed the rest of the way. Looking at the preseason CAA projections, the Dukes are a team expected to finish in the middle of the pack and remember that league isn't as strong as it once was. You may recall they went 21-11 SU a year ago, good for third in the league. But they were one and done in the conference tournament. Playing for a second time in three days, though it's early in the season, I don't think does this team any favors.

Like JMU, Rice returns four starters from LY. Most notable is Marcus Evans, who led all freshman last year by averaging 21.4 points per game! Evans will be the best player on the floor Sunday afternoon. Not much is expected from the Owls this year (picked for 9th in C-USA), but I think they will exceed those low expectations. The problem for them last season was on the defensive end as they gave up 80.5 PPG, one of the worst marks in the entire country. There's just no way they don't see a decrease in that average. As we saw in their opener, JMU isn't a strong offensive team and they're just 13-27-1 ATS L41 home games. 8* Rice

10* Under Packers/Titans (1:00 ET): Green Bay has clearly been underachieving as they've been favored in all but one of their eight games, yet are just 4-4 SU. I went against them last week, at home vs. Indianapolis, expecting a close game. What I got was an outright win on the Colts, 31-26. The Pack did outgain the Colts mind you, but that's only a pyrrhic victory in what was the team's third loss by five points or less this season. Meanwhile, Tennessee has improved this year as they already have one more win than they did all of last season. But, it was a 43-35 loss LW at San Diego. GB looks tempting as this short of a road favorite, but their offense just isn't what it used to be. So let's go with the Under instead.

The Titans have gone Over in six straight games. As a result, we now have the highest total for any of their games this season. I was a bit 'snakebitten' in taking the Under LW in San Diego as that game as twice the Chargers scored a defensive TD. Granted, that wasn't enough to explain the discrepancy, but a few other factors are working in our favor here. One is Tennessee's defense shouldn't be as bad this week now that they're back at home. Two, I don't see their offense being very successful running the ball this week. They gained only 80 yards LW on 19 carries, but the Packers defense has excelled defending the run this year, allowing just 3.35 yards per carry (#1 in the league). Contrary to the way the rest of this league is going, Tennessee is a team that prefers to grind it out with the running game. That may not work here.

Sometimes you have to be a contrarian (I often am) and this figures to be one of the most popular Over choices of the week. This will be right with Atl-Phi and Mia-SD as one of the top choices of Over bettors. But, because of that, we can take advantage of a number that's been bet up. As I said before, the Packers' offense isn't humming like we're used to seeing. Shockingly, they are bottom 10 in the league in yards per play (5.3). On the road, that number dips to 5.1 and they are averaging less than 300 YPG. 10* Under Packers/Titans

8* Denver (1:00 ET): Quite frankly, I'm pretty shocked at this line. Denver has been a dog only three other times this season. Once was at home, on Opening Night, vs. Carolina. That was clearly a mistake as they won that Super Bowl rematch. They also won at Cincinnati outright, getting 3.5. Last week, closing lines may vary, but I'm using a one-point line and there the Broncos failed to cover, instead losing to Oakland 30-20. Still, that was their first ever ATS loss as a dog under HC Gary Kubiak (7-1-1 all-time) and I love them taking pts here against a Saints team which is back to the role of favoritism after spending much of the year as a dog. Despite a pair of close wins over Carolina and Seattle, New Orleans' homefield advantage isn't what it once was. Take the points. 

The Saints opened the year 0-3 SU, losing on the final play to both the Raiders and Giants. The last time they were favored here at home was Week 3 and they were blitzed by division rival Atlanta, losing that game 45-32. From that point on, they were a dog in four straight games, including the home dates vs. Carolina and Seattle which they won by a combined eight points. Their other win during that stretch was a gift courtesy of San Diego, who literally fumbled away that game. Last week brought arguably their most "complete" game of the season (won 41-23), but it was against San Francisco, who turned the ball over four times. Even with that cover, it should be pointed out that NO is only 7-16-1 ATS the L24 times it has been favored, not to mention 10-14 straight up! 

The Broncos not only have the better record, but the better point differential here as well (+48 vs. +4). In fact, only three other teams - Patriots, Cowboys, Eagles - have a better YTD point differential than Denver. Yes, it stinks they will be w/o both CB Aqib Talib and DE Derek Wolfe Sunday. But if there's a defense here that you'd want to worry about, it's still the Saints, who allow 29.7 points an 400+ yards per game. Those numbers both get worse here at home. Denver is still #1 in the league against the pass (183.3 YPG), so look for them to keep Drew Brees in relative check. Meanwhile, the Saints' defense ranks dead last in the league against the pass! 8* Denver

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Interestingly enough, my own personal power rankings indicate that the Clippers should be favored by MORE in this contest. But two things need to be taken into account here. One is that the Clips are playing in the second game of a back to back. Often times, we find teams undervalued in this role, but note here as they will have been favored (on the road) both times. Secondly, as good as LA has been to this point of the season (8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS), it is highly doubtful that they'll be able to maintain their current pace where they've been outscoring opponents by an incredible 14.9 points per 100 possessions! Off the tough game last night at OKC, the Clips are ripe to be upset. Take the points.

Minnesota might be 2-5 SU, but they are better than their record. Believe it or not, they are outscoring their opponents by almost four points per 100 possessions. They are 4th in offensive efficiency. Both of their wins have been blowouts. The last one, three nights ago, saw them go to Orlando and prevail 123-107 as 2.5-point pups. In retrospect, that was an awful line. Three of the T'wolves losses this year have been by four points or less and they blew double digits leads in all of them. There is a chance PG Ricky Rubio could return tonight, which would be a big boost. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Wiggins form a strong young core. I do believe that 1st year HC Tom Thibodeau will improve the defense. Right now, I'm leaning towards this team being the #8 seed in the Western Conference.

The Clips played their worst defensive game of the season last night against OKC, giving up 108 points. That may not seem that shocking to you, but consider that the Thunder rank in the bottom six in the league in offensive efficiency. To reiterate, Minnesota is fourth in that department. The Clips still are giving up only .92 points per possession. There is simply no way they will be able to maintain that average. The Clips have looked good in the back end of both back to backs this year, but eventually the roll has to slow down. It was a two-point game last night in OKC (won 110-108) and it was essentially close throughout. Can this resurgent LA bench really continue to be trusted? 10* Minnesota

full analysis soon

10* Iowa (8:00 ET): There is a massive discrepancy between the spread here and what it was back in the summer. The lookahead line was Michigan laying only 4.5, but due to a combination of the Wolverines still being unbeaten (9-0 SU) and Iowa a major disappointment, we have seen a shift to more than three touchdowns. I believe this to be a very tricky spot for Jim Harbaugh's team. The spotlight is now on them more than ever as they fight to stay in the top four and laying this many points on the road against a desperate team may not be as easy as you think. Following LW's embarrassing 41-14 loss at Penn State. I expect some Hawkeye pride to kick in here, and in a "buy low" situation, I'll take the points.

As impressive as the numbers have been for Michigan thus far, the schedule really hasn't been. Sure, wins over Colorado, Penn State and Wisconsin look impressive in retrospect, but all of those games were in Ann Arbor. Penn State was really banged up when Michigan played them. The Maize and Blue have played just two "true" road games all season long and one was against Rutgers. We all rememeber how that went. But the other was two weeks ago at Michigan State, a situation strikingly similar to this. Even more so than Iowa, Sparty has been a massive disappointment this year, but still was able to stay within a three TD spread throughout, losing only 32-23. I'd like to take this time to point out that MIchigan's last four opponents are a combined 4-20 SU in Big 10 play.

Iowa entered LY's Big 10 Champ Game unbeaten (12-0) and would go on to lose to Michigan State 16-13. They were then destroyed in the Rose Bowl by Stanford, 45-16. This year, they have already lost four times, but before LW, none of those had been by more than eight points. A defense that's allowing only 21.3 PPG, essentially the spread for this game, should absolutely keep them in this thing throughout. One would have to go back a long way to find the last time Kirk Ferentz was this sizable of an underdog. The last time they were getting at least 17 was 2013 at Ohio State and they covered that game, losing only 34-24. As a home dog of any size, Ferentz is 6-2-1 ATS. 10* Iowa

10* Over LSU/Arkansas (7:00 ET): LSU is of course the ONLY team in the country yet to have gone Over in a single game this year. I tried teasing last week, but not even dropping an already low total seven points lower worked out vs. Alabama. Reminiscent of the dying days of the Les Miles' administration, the Bayou Bengals were shut out by Bama in a somewhat humiliating 10-0 loss where the offense gained all of 124 total yards! (I'd like to point out though that the other half of my teaser equation, LSU +15, did work out). Thankfully, the Tigers won't be facing Nick Saban again this season and it's worth noting that in the previous three games, they averaged 41.7 PPG. I like the Over Saturday night vs. Arkansas.

Arkansas can also score. They scored 31 last week in an impressive win over Florida here in Fayatteville. They gained 465 total yards on a defense that allows only 14.1 points and 268 yards per game. Of course, this offense has had no problems rolling at home this season as they average 35 PPG here and 448 yards. They've scored at least 30 in each of the last four home games. While the defense also showed up LW vs. the Gators, note Florida is a weak offensive foe. The Gators have gained less than 250 yards in three of their last four games. It is difficult to forget how this Arkansas defense was run over three weeks ago, to the tune of 546 rush yards, by Auburn in a humiliating 56-3 defeat. In case you forgot, LSU has a guy named Leonard Fournette in its offensive backfield.

A little surprising is that this is a double revenge spot for LSU. They have not lost three straight times to Arkansas since the 1920's. Les Miles' much maligned offense could only put up a total of 14 pts the L2 years vs. the Hogs, but I think there's far more hope w/ Ed Orgeron running the show. Again, things had really picked up the previous three games, including two 500+ yard efforts in SEC play. While Bama is by far #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, Arkansas is 57th. The Razorbacks are 4-2 Over in games that they are an underdog this season. This is the lowest total for any LSU game this season, including last week. 10* Over LSU/Arkansas

8* UNLV (3:30 ET): Wyoming got me last week, beating Utah State 52-28 as four-point chalk. In my defense, I was quite complimentary of the job Craig Bohl is doing here in Laramie and how could I not be? Last week's win improved them to 5-0 SU in Mountain West play and 7-2 SU overall. But, as is the case with every other team I'm fading in this three-pack, I remain leery of them in the chalk role, especially when on the road laying a big number. With the Pokes, LW's win and cover snapped a six-game ATS losing skid as a favorite that went back three years. Take note the game was also at home. While 5-0 SU in Laramie this year, they are just 2-2 SU on the road (1-2 ATS). That split is consistent w/ what we've seen from this program in recent seasons. Coming into this year, they'd dropped 16 of 18 road games.

Wyoming has enjoyed some good fortune in this resurgent year such as three wins by eight points or less and a +6 turnover ratio. Really, they've been winning in spite of a defense that is pretty lousy. The Cowboys give up 32.5 PPG and 6.44 yards per play away from home. They allowed 500 yards in an outright road loss (were -6) at Eastern Michigan back on September 23rd. Since then, they've gone 4-0-1 ATS vs. the closing line. But they have a huge lookahead to fellow MWC unbeaten San Diego State next week, whom they'll host. Meanwhile, the Pokes figure to have the full attention of UNLV, who is off its bye and outright loss at San Jose State (as three-point favorites) the week before that.

The Rebels are just 2-8 SU L10 vs. Wyoming, including three straight losses since 2011. But the last two were both decided by seven points or less and last year's game in Laramie was decided on a 62-yard TD pass w/ 2:28 remaining. That was the regular season finale and UNLV was actually a two-point favorite there! While Tony Sanchez's team has not won since 10/15, like I said they'll be quite eager to take the field here following a bye and B2B outright losses. This team was a short favorite against both Colorado State and San Jose State. But the last time they were a dog, they won outright at Hawaii. Sanchez is 0-4 ATS all-time as a home dog, but I look for the home team to do no worse than a cover Saturday afternoon in Vegas. The bye is huge for them as is the lookahead for Wyoming. 8* UNLV

8* Missouri (3:30 ET): The betting patterns for this SEC tussle are by no means unprecedented, but they certainly qualify as unique. All week long, over 80% of the tickets written have been on the dog, Vanderbilt. But the line has gone UP and Missouri is now favored by more than they were at the open. That might seem a little curious given how Mizzou comes in on a 0-5 SU/ATS streak. Here at home, they've lost twice outright as a favorite - to Middle Tennessee and Kentucky - but Vandy is the weakest opponent they will have faced in some time. This is also a revenge spot for the Tigers, who lost an ugly 10-3 game LY in Nashville. I cannot see Mizzou, who I thought would be much better this year, continuing to slide. Lay the points.

A big issue that I see for Vandy here is that it will be very hard for them to "get off the mat" following LW's close call vs. Auburn. This is the Commodores second straight road game, which is always a tough spot for any team. Last week, they were a little fortunate in that Auburn starting QB Sean White did not play in the first half (injury), thereby ensuring it would be a close game throughout. White came into the game w/ his team down 13-10. Of course, the Commies' own offense did little to help its own cause from that point on. They scored just three points after halftime, part of a continuing issue for Derek Mason. In conference play this year, Vandy is averaging a woeful 12.4 PPG! That's not going to cut it. The L4 times Vandy has covered, they have been a dog of 8.5 or more points every time out.

Last week, I bought "low" on Ohio State, who was an undervalued favorite in their game vs. Nebraska. I by no means anticipate another 62-3 final here, but what I do expect is Missouri's best game of 2016 against a FBS foe. The offensive numbers here at home are somewhat skewed due to a 79-0 win over Delaware State. But they did score 45 against Middle Tennessee a few weeks later. Defensively, this was a strong team last year (16.2 PPG allowed) and it's been a major disappointment to see them regress in 2016 (allow 30.4 PPG). Last week, they faced South Carolina and the key was a -3 turnover margin for Mizzou as they outgained the Gamecocks (465-428). Vandy has won just 3 of its last 21 SEC games and is 4-20 SU L24 times as an underdog. 8* Missouri

10* Rice (2:00 ET): Shame on me, but I thought Rice was in a position to improve this season. They dropped to 5-7 SU LY, David Baliff's ninth season at the school. Instead, they've gone in the wrong direction and are currently in position to finish w/ the worst record in the Baliff era. The Owls have just one win and it came three weeks ago, at home vs. FCS opponent Prairie View, 65-44. But I happened to have cashed this team once this year and that was in a one-point loss to UTSA the week prior to their only win to date. The defense has been a disaster the L2 games, allowing over 100 pts and 1300 yards to La Tech and Fla Atlantic. But as I'm about to show, I don't think Charlotte's offense will be able to take advantage. Take the points.

To say Charlotte's recent string of performances have come out of nowhere would be a mild understatement. The 49ers have won three of four, covering the spread every time out. This is just the program's fourth year of existence and second at the FBS level! The three wins over the last four weeks match their number of victories from the previous 17 games. This will be now be their first time EVER favored over a FBS foe and they're laying double digits. This is a clear overreaction by the marketplace after winning road games over FAU, Marshall and Southern Miss as 13, 8 and 17 point underdogs respectively. Last week, they beat Southern Miss 38-27 despite allowing 498 total yds. The key was the 49ers were +3 in turnovers.

Consider that when these teams met in LY regular season finale, Rice was an 11-pt favorite and won 27-7. So there's been a massive swing in one year's time. Again, a lot of that does have to do w/ the decline of the Owls and admittedly, they aren't giving us much to work with here. But I keep coming back to the somewhat head-scratching proposition that Charlotte is favored. The 49ers' three wins over the last four weeks have come by a total of 19 points and two were by five points or less. This line certainly appears to be a case of putting "the cart before the horse." In my own personal power rankings, I would have this as a four-point spread, making this the biggest discrepancy of the week. 10* Rice

8* LSU (2:00 ET): Last year, LSU was a massive bust at the betting window. Among teams that played more than seven lined games, they had one of the worst ATS records in the country at 11-20-1. That included a poor start to the year w/ an 0-5 (ATS) November. The issue was that they were overvalued because of Ben Simmons, who has now moved on to the NBA. Granted, the Tigers were not a bad team; they finished 19-14 SU and at one point were 9-3 SU in SEC play. But a bad finish, which culminated in an embarrassing 71-38 loss to Texas A&M in the conference tourney was "all she wrote." The team may not be better per se this year, but there is definitely more value in taking them at the window. Lay the points here.

Wofford, who we've seen in the NCAA Tournament before, also comes in off a down year. They went 15-17 SU overall and finished 4-10 SU in non-conference play. This year, the Terriers are projected to finish third (I've seen as low as fifth) in the Southern Conference where everyone is chasing incumbent Chattanooga. Last year's leading scorer, Spencer Collins, graduated and that leaves some big shoes to fill. This will a young team this year w/ as many as six freshman possibly being asked to contribute. We saw last night w/ our play against Harvard what relying on so many young players can look like this early in the season.

Call me crazy, but I think LSU may come together better than expected w/o Simmons. At times last year, it appeared as if the team did not understand how to utilize its superstar properly. Either they were too reliant, or didn't go to him nearly enough. I think that the coaching staff will have a real emphasis on starting the season strong consider the hole that was dug last year. Antonio Blakeney will be one of the top players in the SEC this year. Wofford is only 11-19 ATS in road games the last two seasons and as an underdog they are 7-13 SU/3-17 ATS. 8* LSU

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Teams unfamiliar w/ laying this kind of weight will be the prevailing theme in this three-pack. Here, we have Miami (OH) laying points on the road for the first time since 2011. Not only that, but they are double digit road chalk for the first time since 2005, when they were still in the shadow of the Big Ben era. After losing to Akron, 35-13, on October 8th this was a program that had dropped a somewhat unfathomable 40 of 45 games dating back to 2012. However, something shocking occurred last month and that's the Redhawks have produced a four-game win streak, every single time winning outright as a small dog. But now the role has changed and the value lies in fading them.

Miami hosted Buffalo last year and was a seven-point dog. While they covered, they still lost the game, 29-24. Now, because of this four-game win streak, there has been a shocking change in the marketplace w/ them now laying more points on the road than they were getting at home LY. I have a ton of respect for the turnaround HC Chuck Martin has engineered in his three years here in Oxford and in fact I took the RedHawks just two weeks ago when they went to Ypsilanti and beat Eastern Michigan as seven-point dogs. They followed that up w/ arguably their most impressive performance to date, a 37-17 win over Central Michigan at home. But I can't disregard the fact this team was 0-6 SU at one point this season! Them being double digit road chalk is somewhat unfathomable. They have not been asked to lay DD chalk, home or road, since that 2011 season.

Now, for Miami to be laying this many points on the road, the opponent obviously has to be struggling. Buffalo comes in at 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS for the year. They lost LW, 34-10 on the road, to MAC East leader Ohio. But that was a clear letdown spot after they upset another conference foe unworthy of laying heavy weight on the road, that being Akron. As 19.5 pt home dogs, I took them against the Zips and the result was a 41-20 win! While 0-4 SU on the road, the Bulls are 2-3 SU at home and getting outscored by only 3.2 PPG here at UB Stadium. They have beaten Miami six of eight times, including four straight. 8* Buffalo

8* Purdue (12:00 ET): Coming off hard-fought losses against Big 10 heavyweights Ohio State and Wisconsin, I view this as a tricky spot for N'western laying so many points, on the road. Curiously, the Wildcats have performed better away from Evanston this year as in 3-0 ATS. But .. this is the first time they will have been a favorite off campus. Purdue, in a transition year that's already seen a coaching change, has lost four in a row. But this is a team that's been besieged by poor fortune as much as anything else. They rate a horrendous -14 in turnover differential, which is 127th out of 128 teams nationally. I've cashed this team before in West Lafayette (vs. Nevada) and like them here again in this spot. Take the points.

One week removed from taking Ohio State down to the wire, Northwestern was a popular upset call LW hosting Wisconsin. It didn't work out that way however as they were beaten 21-7 by the Badgers. They had virtually no success running the ball, gaining only 39 yards on 19 attempts. The Wildcats' lone score came right before the half. Aside from that drive, the offense gained only 229 total yards. Having been held to 24 or less points in all but two games this season, this is hardly the ideal team to be caught laying this number away from home. In fact, this is the first time Pat Fitzgerald's team has been a road favorite in the L3 seasons. Being a DD road fave in Big 10 play is almost unprecedented.

These teams met last year in Evanston and Northwestern was "only" a 14-pt favorite at home. The final score there was only 21-14. That was a much better Wildcats team, for the record. As alluded to above, turnovers have been the bugaboo for the Boilermakers as they've won that battle just once in the last eight games. Darrell Hazell was dismissed after a 49-35 loss to Iowa on October 15th. They've subsequently lost three straight for interim HC Gerad Parker. But they've been competitive twice. Last week, they led a good Minnesota team at the half 28-23, but three turnovers cost them. Here at home, the offense averages an impressive 465 YPG and while there's nothing to play for but pride here, I see a competitive game the whole way. 8* Purdue

8* Stanford (11:00 ET): The Cardinal have moved on from Johnny Dawkins. Last year's 15-15 SU (11-15-1 ATS) finish was the "straw that broke the camel's back." In steps former UAB head man Jerod Haase, who helped that program improve its win total each of the four years he was there. By no means is the cupboard bare here in Palo Alto for Haase. He'll inherit four returning starters from LY's team as well as 10 of the top 11 scorers. So there is no reason to believe this team won't improve here in 2016.

This game, it should be noted, takes place in China. Harvard has brought in a strong recruiting class and figures to be the favorite in the Ivy League under HC Tommy Amaker. However, the Crimson have largely been a bust when priced as the underdog. Over the last two seasons, they've won just 4 of 17 games in that role. The line is really short here, it should be pointed out. Stanford is 29-8 SU as a favorite the L3 seasons. Theyve also won 21 of the last 28 non-conference games.

Robert Cartwright is a name to pay attention to here. The Stanford PG missed all of last season due to a fractured right arm. Him handling the ball should be a big difference maker. Also, remember that this team won the NIT two years ago. It's not that they were a bad team last year; they simply undeperformed under Dawkins. I have them undervalued coming into this year and will gladly lay the points in this opener. 8* Stanford

10* Over Kings/Blazers (10:05 ET): Things started quite well for Sacramento last night at home vs. the Lakers. In a nationally televised contest, they jumped out to a 30-16 lead after the first quarter and wound up leading by as many as 19. But the wheels came off in the second half, particularly in the fourth quarter where they were outscored 31-18. Overall, it was a 56-36 edge for the Lakers in the second half. The game, it should be pointed out, came nowhere close to the total of 211 as the final score was 101-91, meaning the Under won by 20 points. However, I highly doubt we'll be getting another 36 point half from the Kings in this one, especially facing a Blazers squad, who started the year with five straight Overs. Take the Over here.

Portland was off yday, which was probably for the best, as they got clobbered 111-80 by the ridiculously hot Clippers Wednesday night. Again, like the Kings, we should clearly anticipate a rise in scoring from the Blazers here compared to the last game. They were an awful 35.2% from the floor vs. the Clips, including 6 of 30 (20%) from three-point range. It should be pointed out that the Clippers lead the league in defensive efficiency right now in almost other-worldly fashion. Sacramento ranks 23rd, which is actually two spots ahead of Portland. So, we have two offenses that would almost certainly bounce back, regardless of the opponent, but the bounce back here should be greater considering both are bottom eight in defensive efficiency.

As I said earlier, the Blazers' first five games all went Over the total. The Clippers' game marked the first time all year that they failed to score at least 100 points in a game. They are averaging 106.9 PPG overall, but allowing 110.8. Their home games, all four of which have gone Over, have seen a combined average of 228.2 PPG. In six of nine games, they've allowed at least 110 points this year. Sacramento, fresh off matching its lowest scoring output of the year, hasn't been quite as bad defensively, but the Over is 17-8 for them L3 seasons when off a SU loss as a favorite. All four meetings between these two stayed Under last year, but this total is now lower than any of those four matchups. 10* Over Kings/Blazers

10* Under Jets/Avalanche (9:05 ET): All the promise we had heard about Winnipeg has somewhat come to fruition the L2 games as they rolled Dallas (8-2!), then beat Arizona 3-2 last night. However, for the season, they continue to rate as a very average team. Not only are they 7-7-1 (15 points), but they have given up the same exact number of goals that they have scored (45). The are 4-4 at home and 3-3-1 on the road. Tonight though, they do play a Colorado team that is in last place in the Central. The Avs' 10 points is tied for a league low right now as they have lost six of eight overall, scoring more than two goals in only one of those contest. Neither side enthuses me here, but I do like the Under.

For the year, Colorado is averaging only 2.0 goals per game. That ranks 28th in the league. Their shooting percentage is really low (6.9%) and incredibly that number drops in half over the L5 games to 3.4%. That's some ridiculous goaltending they've been facing. Winnipeg's Michael Hutchinson may not have the YTD numbers to suggest he is in line for such a strong performance. But, he did turn in a 37-save shutout against these Avs back on October 28th. In the last five games, Colorado has scored a total of just five goals.

It should also be pointed out that half (five) of Colorado's last 10 games, either they or the opponent has been shut out. I mentioned before that the Jets scored eight times in a recent win over Dallas. Well, I don't anticipate that happening again anytime soon. First off, the eight goal outburst came at home. On the road this year, the team is averaging only 25.2 shots per game. That's a really low number. You wonder what they'll have left in the tank following the road win last night. The Under is 12-8 the L3 seasons for them when they play in the second of back to back games. Again, the last time these teams met it was a 1-0 final and the Jets were in on no rest there as well. 10* Under Jets/Avalanche

10* Chicago (8:35 ET): This is most certainly a marquee matchup on the Friday slate. The Blackhawks, thanks to seven straight wins, are back on top of not just the Central Division, but the entire Western Conference w/ 21 points. A lot of that has to do w/ a 7-1-1 record on home ice (just 3-2 on the road). "The Madhouse of Madison" is where they'll be tonight as Washington comes calling. The Caps, LY's President's Trophy winner, had won five in a row before being shutout Tuesday at home by San Jose. Save for one game, they've been -135 or higher on the money line every time out this year. So this might look like a good value on them, but it is not as the 'Hawks are the better team

Over their L5 games, Chicago is dominating teams to the tune of an average margin of victory of 2.2 goals per game. Make no mistake about it, this is a very explosive offense that comes in averaging the second most goals per game in the league (3.5) right now. At home, that average jumps to an incredible 4.1 and during the seven-game win streak, they've scored at least three times in every game but one - the last time out when they beat St. Louis, 2-1 in overtime. Of course, it also helps to have superb goaltending. Corey Crawford comes in rocking a superb .939 save percentage in all games this year and the number is even higher at home where he's allowed just 10 goals on 194 shot attempts!

Washington, as I said earlier, was shut out in the last game. Typically, they bounce back from such a performance, but rarely are they facing an opponent as tough as this one. They rank only 13th in goals per game this year and the power play is just 24th. That's way down from last year. In fact, they are just 1 for the last 15 w/ the man advantage. Shockingly, the Blackhawks rank last in the league on the penalty kill, but the numbers have gone up significantly during this win streak. With a goals against average of 1.91, Crawford should be the difference maker here. 10* Chicago

8* Under Boston College/Florida State (7:30 ET): Florida State has three losses. One, their first, was a 63-20 massacre at the hands of Louisville. The other two were by three points or less and by a total of five points (Clemson, UNC). While the pollsters have this team ranked #18, my view is that they are one of the top 10 teams in the country. So, I'm not about to fade them here, even though they have not won and covered a game as a favorite since 9.24 (vs. South Florida). Here, they'll be hosting a Boston College team w/ a fairly anemic offensive attack (avg 19.4 PPG), particularly on the road (15.2 PPG). These teams have combined to go Under in each of the L2 meetings. I see that trend continuing here. Take the Under.

Though I have them in my own Top 10, FSU is off a bit of shaky performance at NC State. They won, 24-20, but failed to cover as six-point chalk and were outgained 469-393. In three of last four games, the Seminoles have scored 24 pts or less. This offense is led by RB Dalvin Cook, but in the past BC has proven to be a difficult matchup for him. In 2015, the Eagles' defense held Cook to just 54 yds rushing, his season-low. In the 2014 game, it was only a 76-yard effort from Cook. While BC's defense has had some bad days this year, like LW vs. Louisville, they still are allowing only 107 YPG rushing. It should be pointed out that the Under is 22-9 in all BC games the L3 seasons, including 13-2 if they are off a conference loss.

Florida State's defense sorely misses standout safety Derwin James, but against weaker offensive opponents, they've been fine. BC certainly qualifies as a "weak offensive opponent," ranking 126th nationally in yards per game. To be clear, there are only 128 FBS teams. This is nothing new either; last year the Eagles averaged only 17.2 points and 276 yards per game. Last year, in Chesnut Hill, they were shutout by the 'Noles defense (14-0 final). Two years ago, the final score was 20-17. Overall, FSU is 8-1 Under in the month of November the last few seasons. I just don't see Boston College scoring much here and their defense should keep Florida State relatively in check. Therefore, I'm on the Under. 8* Under Boston College/Florida State

10* Arizona State (9:30 ET): For a second consecutive season, I'm not a huge buyer on fast start from Utah. The Utes opened the year 7-1, but ran into Washington two Saturdays ago and lost 31-24 up in Seattle. Granted, there's no shame in that effort, but a number of the team's wins so far have been close and I don't believe for a second that they're as good as their #15 rating. Playing on the road for a third time in four games may very well "catch up" w/ Kyle Whittingham's team. This is a revenge game for an Arizona State team that is getting a healthy Manny Wilkins back under center. Wilkins should be a big boon for the Sun Devils offense and the team should be quite fired up about a Thursday night home game. Take the points.

When these teams met LY in Salt Lake City, it was ASU that entered the fourth quarter w/ an 18-14 lead. From there, however, it was all Utes as they scored the game's final 20 points and covered the five-point spread w/ "room to spare." Still, that's a bit of a misleading final considering the game had five lead changes and the dog led outright going into the final quarter. The scene shifting to Tempe this year is significant as the Sun Devils are a strong 4-1 SU (5-0 ATS!) here this season and 20-10 SU L30 vs. Pac 12 home games. With Wilkins throwing for 290 yards (21 of 30 passing), ASU hung 51 here on a Cal team that happened to hand Utah its first loss of the season. Overall, the Sun Devils are averaging 43.6 PPG at home this season w/ the only loss coming by five to a Washington State team I have rated higher - somewhat significantly - compared to Utah.

The Utes may be 7-2 straight up right now, but let's not fail to mention that four of those victories have been by seven points or less. Two of the three that weren't came against Southern Utah (FCS) and San Jose State. They also waxed a downtrodden Arizona team by 13, but that was at home. As a seven-point road favorite at Oregon State last month, they struggled in a 19-14 win and this is a stronger foe than the Beavers. I anticipate the Utes defense struggling against a Sun Devils offense which has gone for 51 and 66 points in home wins w/ Wilkins as the QB. Let's not discount some of the good fortune Utah has enjoyed either this year (+9 in TO's) or the fact they have failed to cover each of the L3 times they have been road chalk of 3.5 to 7 pts. 10* Arizona State

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): The Pelicans have yet to win a game. The only other team that can claim that dubious distinction is Philadelphia over in the Eastern Conference and that was probably to be expected. Though dealing with numerous absences, there's no excuse for the Pelicans, who have one of the best players in the league in Anthony Davis. Though the team is on the road tonight, I can see them breaking through for that elusive first win. Milwaukee is a team that surprises me in that they rate a lot higher than I expected in my own personal power rankings. But after three straight high scoring wins and covers (one at New Orleans' expense), they managed only 75 points in a dreadful overtime loss at Dallas Sunday.

When these teams met back on November 1st, it was a high scoring affair w/ the Bucks coming from behind to win 117-113 as 3.5-pt dogs. Despite a 35-point effort from Davis, the Pelicans were outscored in the pain and outrebounded somewhat significantly as the Bucks got a variety of stunning contributions. Greg Monroe, coming off the bench, even grabbed 11 rebounds. Another problem for New Orleans was that they finished the game by missing 18 of their final 22 three-point attempts. I do not expect these kind of numbers to appear in the box score in tonight's game. What I do expect is another standout performance from Davis, who averages 30.9 PPG and also is among the league leaders in rebounds, steals and blocks.

The Bucks just lost to another team that was winless, Dallas, on Sunday. That was with the Mavs missing two starters as well, so there's hope for New Orleans yet. Milwaukee was just dreadful on on the offensive end in the loss, scoring only 48 points after the first quarter! My god. They were outscored 12-1 in the OT period and 27 turnovers for the game certainly didn't help. Losing a game when your opponent shoots 9 of 38 from three-point range is not a good sign at all. This is also just the third time this year that the Bucks will have been favored. They are 1-1 ATS thus far, failing to cover as eight-point chalk over Brooklyn. The Pelicans are still 58-46 ATS as a dog the L3 seasons. 10* New Orleans

10* Under Islanders/Lightning (7:35 ET): Tampa Bay has certainly enjoyed playing the Islanders of late. Not only did they beat them earlier this year, 6-1, but remember they eliminated them from LY's playoffs in five games. Scoring has not been an issue for the Lightning in those wins. In a now five-game win streak over the Isles, they have scored four or more goals four times. But here, they are off a 3-1 loss to Florida, which was the fourth time in the last seven games that they scored only one time. Both teams have generally been winning for Over bettors of late (Isles are 5-1 Over L6 games), but here I like the Under. 

To get our Under here, both sides will need to work on a reduction in shots allowed. Both are allowing 33+ over the L5 games respectively. In fact, we've seen an average of over 66 shots on goal total in the Lightning's last five. They put up 36 in the win over the Islanders on the first of the month. However, looking at the O/U line for tonight's matchup, at least one key trend indicates things will go our way. That's the fact that Under is now 30-19 the L49 Tampa Bay home games where the total is 5.5. Goaltender Ben Bishop has a .925 save percentage his L4 starts & a TB penalty kill which ranks seventh in the league (88%) should not be threatened by an Islanders' penalty kill that is only 26th for the year (4 for 37!).

Also, this being a road game for the Isles does not bode well for them or the offense in particular. They have yet to win away from Brooklyn this year and are averaging only 2.0 gpg in the three losses. Note that the Isles are 26-16 Under when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. What we've seen recently from goaltender Jaroslav Halak is encouraging enough (.918 save percentage L4 starts). Last time out (vs. a sorry Vancouver team) was the first time in four games that the Isles topped three goals in regulation. 10* Under Islanders/Lightning

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): As good as the Rangers have looked so far this year, the Penguins are currently tied w/ them for first place in the Metro (20 pts each). The Pens have not only won B2B games, but also 7 of the last 8 and have been beaten in regulation only twice all year. Meanwhile, we have the visiting Wild, who have just 13 points but also one of the better goal differentials in the league right now (+11). However, they've dropped B2B games (to Colorado and Buffalo) and come in as sizable underdogs on the ML here. Minny certainly hasn't had much luck here in the Steel City, losing each of their last four visits. Make it five.

Pittsburgh is sixth in the league in goals per game (3.1) and has scored a total of nine times the last two games. In each of their last five wins, the team has scored at least four goals. They are both 6-0-1 at home this year and the last seven games overall. Sidney Crosby has been downright incredible so far as he'd registered a point in every single game prior to being held pointless in the last one. Between the pipes, both Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray have proven to be reliable options. It appears as if it will be the former in goal tonight after a two-game absence. That's just fine by me as Fleury has a .930 save percentage in six home games this year.

The Wild had been rolling as in three consecutive shutout wins to end October and w/ Devan Dubnyk in goal, they've continued to be stingy here in November. The problem has been the offense drying up. Perhaps that should have been anticipated when you look at the fact they managed only 37 total shots against in wins over Buffalo and Dallas. I seriously doubt that moving forward, Dubnyk or whomever is in goal will be able to maintain the extraordinary .980 save percentage we've seen the L5 games. This will be the strongest opponent that the Wild will have faced in a while, possibly all season, on the offensive end. Having not played since Saturday, Minnesota is well rested, but that's a long time off between road games and they are just 9-14 SU L3 seasons when taking the ice w/ at least three days' rest. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Akron (7:30 ET): This is a virtual must-win for the Zips, who need one more to become officially bowl eligible. They wrap up their regular season on 11.22 in Athens (at Ohio). That will be a tough one as not only is it on the road, but Ohio may very well be looking to clinch the MAC East. This is an opponent at the other end of the divisional spectrum as Bowling Green has yet to win a conference game is only 1-8 SU overall. That one win was over a FCS foe, North Dakota. Since then, they've lost four of seven games by double digits. One of them was 77-3 to Memphis. I look for Akron to win its final home game - big.

Bowling Green's defense is very, very bad. They allow 45.1 PPG for the season and have given up 40+ each of the last three games. They come in off a 45-20 loss at Northern Illinois where they were outgained 481-314. You can really run the ball on this team. They allow 226 YPG in that department for the year. Now Akron is also in off B2B losses and has a leaky defense in its own right. But they can certainly put points up more consistently than the Falcons. The Zips average 29.8 PPG compared to just 21.2 for BGSU and that second number drops to 18.2 when they are on the road.

We don't find Akron is this price range often, but they are 2-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points the L3 seasons. Those games, both home finales, saw them win by a combined 50-6 margin! In fact, they are 5-2 SU their L7 home finales including three consecutive wins by 15+ points. There's plenty of revenge the Zips would like to exact on this Falcons team as they have lost four years in a row to BG and are just 2-10 ATS the L12 meetings overall. Last year, it was 59-10. But there is no denying which side is stronger in 2016.  8* Akron

10* Over Bulls/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta is off a huge win here as they went to Cleveland last night and handed the Cavs their first loss of the season. Therefore, it's fair to question what they'll have left in the tank for this second of back to back games, at home against the Bulls. It has been a really impressive start to the season for the Hawks though, as they are 5-2 SU w/ the best point differential in the Eastern Conference (+9.6 PPG). They rank #7 in offensive efficiency and #4 in defensive efficiency. It's the latter I'd be more concerned about them maintaining here as Chicago comes in averaging more than 1.1 points per possession, third best in the league. They did just allow 106 pts to the #2 team in offensive efficiency (Cavs) last night. Take the Over here.

Save for a 111-94 loss to Indiana on Saturday, the Bulls have hit 100+ points in every game this year. Save for the last one, a 112-80 beatdown of the Magic, every total has been higher than this one. The 112 pts scored against Orlando was not a season-high, but rather pretty "par for the course." The Bulls come in averaging 107.3 PPG thus far, a big reason why they are off to a winning start. Of course, they also lost three in a row at one point due to giving up an average of just under 112 PPG. It's a little bit surprising that only two Chicago games thus far have gone Over the total. By the way, the Over is 13-9 in Bulls' road games the L3 season if the total is between 200 and 204.5.

The Hawks may rank highly in defensive efficiency, but they have still been giving up plenty of points, including 103.5 PPG at home. Over the L5 games, they have allowed 103.2 PPG. Now that's largely due to one really poor effort out in LA against the Lakers, who rang up 123 pts on them. A big key is the Hawks are playing fast as in the seventh fastest pace of play per game in the league. By the way, the Over is also 25-15 in the second game of back to backs for them. So far, they are shooting 47.4% for the season on all FG attempts, but also 38.9% from three-point range at home. Look for a pretty high-scoring game here. 10* Over Bulls/Hawks

8* Under Rockets/Spurs (9:35 ET): San Antonio is 5-2 SU, but both losses have been bad and in each instance I'm proud to say I happened to be against them. Those losses were 106-91 at home to Utah (were -10.5) and then Saturday, 116-92 at home to the Clippers (-4.5). But that being said, this still remains as one of the top three teams in the league. Tonight, they will host a Houston team that is playing its fifth consecutive road game. Recent trips to the Alamo haven't gone well for the Rockets as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L4 and all of those games have also gone Over the total. But for this venture, they arrive having gone Under each of the L3 games. This is a high total by San Antonio standards (admittedly not by Houston's though). Take the Under.

The Spurs have actually gone Over in each of the last four games. But those totals were obviously all lower than this one. Their leading scorer Kawhi Leonard finished w/ only 14 points last game, not scoring at all after halftime. We'll likely see an increase in his individual offensive production here, but the team defense is what's set to improve the most from the last game. The Clippers torched the Spurs for 39 points in the first quarter and 73 in the first half. Despite that, this remains a Top 10 team in the league in defensive efficiency. They allow only 93.7 PPG at home.

Houston has actually now stayed Under in five of seven games overall.  That includes a 3-0 mark after allowing 105+ points last game, which they did here.  They are also 4-0 Under after scoring 105+ points the last game. While this is a low total for them, lowest of the season in fact, it's also the staunchest defensive opponent they've faced so far. 8* Under Rockets/Spurs

    

9* Over Ducks/Blue Jackets (7:05 ET): Last Friday night, Columbus put forth what will end up being one of the (if not THE) most confounding results of this or an NHL season. They beat Montreal, a team that hadn't lost in regulation all year, 10-0! Predictably, they came back down to Earth the following night, losing 2-1 at St. Louis. Meanwhile, Anaheim is off B2B big wins and I'm proud to say I cashed both times. First, it was a 5-1 win over Arizona (I was on them). Second, it was a 4-1 win over Calgary where I cashed the Under. Nine goals across two games is impressive as is the fact the Ducks have scored 4+ goals in four of their last six games overall. As we saw Friday, C-bus is more than capable of scoring in its own right. Take the Over.

These non-conference foes have already met once this year and it was the Jackets coming out on top 4-0. The teams combined for 72 shots, but were also 1 for 9 on the power play. The idea that the Jackets can shut the Ducks out again seems far-fetched to me. Something that I find interesting is that Columbus is allowing an average of just 1.4 goals its L5 games, but while allowing an average of 32.4 shots. That's a pretty unsustainable save percentage (.957) put forth by both Sergei Bobrovsky and Curtis McElhinney. Something they'll have to contend with is that Anaheim ranks third in the league on the power play (27.9 percent). Thus, another 0 for 4 performance w/ the man advantage (what the did last time these teams played) seems unlikely. Back to the high number of shot attempts the Blue Jackets are allowing; for the year it's 33.3 per game, the fourth highest average in the league.

Columbus' offense ranks fifth in the league in goals per game and second on the power play. They are also 9-5 Over when taking the ice w/ at least three days of rest the previous three seasons. While they tend to give up a lot of shots, they also force their fair share, especially here at home (31.0 per game). They also score a lot here at home, averaging a whopping 4.2 goals per game! But they are w/o a key defensemen here (Seth Jones) that leads the team in ice time. 9* Over Ducks/Blue Jackets

10* Under Coyotes/Avalanche (9:05 ET): Neither of these two clubs is off to a rousing start this season. In fact, Arizona's eight points are the fewest in the league right now. They've gone 1-6 on the road and I went against them Saturday when they were beaten severely, 5-1 by Anaheim. Colorado isn't much better as they too are off a 5-1 loss (at St. Louis) and have only 10 points. They've been outscored by the same number of goals as have the 'Yotes (11). That's tied for the third worst goal differential in the league right now, ahead of only Calgary and Vancouver. In this battle of Western Conference also-rans, I don't see much of an advantage for either side, but I am playing the game Under the total.

The Avs have played 11 games and scored only 22 goals. That 2.0 gpg scoring average ranks 29th, ahead of only Vancouver, the team I successfully played against last night. In fact, over the last four games, Colorado has scored a total of just three times. That's three games w/ only one goal and one shutout loss. They have been shutout a total of three times already, but also have two shutout wins. So in roughly have their games, one side has not scored. Not surprisingly then, we find the Under at 6-3 their last nine games overall. They went Over in their last game due to allowing five goals, but have not gone Over in B2B games since the first two of the season. A 3-2 win over this very opponent on October 29th stayed Under the total.

Arizona had gone Under in three straight prior to Saturday's 5-1 loss. We've seen a bit more Overs from them so far this season, but note that over the L5 games they have averaged only 26.2 shots per game. You won't score much with that kind of consistent lack of production. Both of these teams, in fact, rank in the bottom third of the league in shots per game. Both could use some better goaltending, but thankfully the projected starting netminders for tonight have each been sharper as of late. Colorado's Calvin Pickard has a .946 save percentage this year and has been a far better option that Semyon Varlamov thus far. Arizona's Luis Dominigue is up to .925 his L4 starts. The 'Yotes power play also ranks 29th, so we shouldn't have to worry about that either. 10* Under Coyotes/Avalanche

10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): The T'wolves have just one win this year, but it came by 36 points (over Memphis). That's a greater margin than their four losses combine to equal (30 points) even after factoring in their first "bad" game of the year, a 112-92 loss at Oklahoma City Saturday night. Prior to that, Minny had actually led by 15+ points in each of their first three defeats. So, we're coming off the first time all year that the T'wolves didn't lead their opponent by double digits. Much improvement was expected from this team in 2016-17 and I believe they are a lot better than the overall record. Lay the points.

Brooklyn, on the other hand, was projected by most to be one of (if not THE) worst teams in the league. Because of that, they have been able to take advantage of some large spreads and start the season 5-1 ATS. They are 2-4 SU, but three of the losses have been by five points or less. While they've performed better than I projected them to (so far), I still have little regard for this Nets squad and I expect them to get run out of the gym here. A number of key players are out for them, most notably PG Jeremy Lin. Randy Foye and Greivis Vasquez are also battling injuries. Foye is listed as probable but Vasquez is not expected to play tonight.

Ricky Rubio's absence has affected Minnesota at the point guard position, but they'll have the best player on the floor Tuesday in the form of Karl-Anthony Towns, who is off B2B 30+ pt games. This is not just the best player in this game, but one of the best young players in the league. Something else that's interesting is the fact that the T'wolves rank in the Top 10 in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency! The Nets haven't played since Friday and this is their fourth consecutive home game. But that second half of the equation may not be a good things considering their awful 4-16 ATS record when taking the court after playing three in a row here at the Barclays Center. 10* Minnesota

8* Kent State (7:30 ET): The underdog Golden Flashes figured to be already "up against it" here facing unbeaten Western Michigan (avg MOV = 25.9 PPG), but were just dealt a bit of terrible news when it was announced that leading tackler Nate Holley was suspended for this game and the foreseeable future. Holley has been arrested on kidnapping charges (can't make this stuff up!) and while I wasn't happy to see that, the fact that the line has shifted so severely seems like an overreaction to me. The pressure is now on WMU, who only needs to win to earn the "Group of Five" spot, not win by any kind of significant margin. The Broncos did clobber Ball State last Tuesday, but I envision a closer game this week. Take the points.

Kent State has had a little more lead time into this game, which can be viewed as a minor advantage. They last played October 29th and won on the road, 27-24, over Central Michigan as 12-point underdogs. While forcing four turnovers there was definitely key to the Golden Flashes' cause, note CMU also benefited from a safety and defensive TD themselves. So Kent's defense, which has really come on strong of late, actually only gave up 14 points. That makes it four straight games allowing 20 pts or less. Now the loss of Holley is big, but I think this group can withstand it. It also should be pointed out that the Flashes' four losses to non Power 5 foes (they had to play both Alabama and Penn State, two top 12 teams) have all come by four points or less (15 pts total). 

Because these teams are in opposite divisions, they don't meet every year. That being said, it is worth nothing that Western Michigan has dropped its last two trips to Dix Stadium, including 41-24 back in '12 when Kent State made it all the way to the MAC Title Game. Clearly, the Golden Flashes aren't anywhere near as strong this year but w/ the defense not having even allowed the number of points that the oddsmakers are calling for them to lose by here, they look like a solid value as a home dog. Expect this to be the biggest game of the year for KSU as its a rare nationally televised home game. WMU has covered all five road games this year, but this is the first time they've had to play back to back. 8* Kent State

10* New Jersey (7:05 ET): These two both finished outside the playoff picture last year. In fact, only Columbus finished below them in the Metro. So far this year, things have improved slightly for the Devils, who have a respectable 13 points. They are unbeaten at home (4-0-1) and that's where they are tonight, hosting Carolina. Meanwhile, things have not gotten much better for the Hurricanes, whose nine points are currently an Eastern Conference low. This is the second game of a home and home that's already seen NJ win in Raleigh, 4-1. I expect them to win just as easily in East Rutherford.

Sunday's win at Carolina was the Devils' first road win in regulation all year. They were led by Michael Cammalleri's hat trick and backup goalie Keith Kincaid made 33 saves. Yes, New Jersey was outshot badly in the game, 34-21. But if the 'Canes can't win under such circumstances, then it's exceedingly difficult to like them here on the road. It's highly unlikely that they'll enjoy such a pronounced edge in shots on goal again. Also, they likely will face Corey Schneider, who has a .927 save percentage in all games, not to mention .949 at home (stopped 111 of 117 shots faced). 

Carolina's goaltending situation has been a disaster thus far w/ a cumulative save percentage of .874. That's 29th in the league, ahead of only Philadelphia. Whether it's Eddie Lack (.856) or Cam Ward (.888) between the pipes here, they likely won't have top defensemen Justin Faulk in front of them. That's because Faulk left Sunday's game with an undisclosed injury. With four power play opportunities in the last game (didn't convert on any) and a sizable edge in shots, the 'Canes really wasted a winnable opportunity. I don't see the elements being as favorable tonight, thus it should be a home and home sweep for the Devils. 10* New Jersey

10* Under Bills/Seahawks (8:30 ET): Both teams' stock is relatively low right now. Buffalo started the season 0-2 SU/ATS and fired its offensive coordinator following a Thursday night loss to the Jets. What followed was a four-game win streak that included a shutout of the Patriots (no Brady). But they've since dropped B2B games, including LW's rematch to the Pats and thus we find them basically where we thought they'd be at this point of the season - .500. Seattle hasn't won in three weeks following a tie w/ Arizona and a surprising loss at New Orleans. They stand at 4-2-1 SU, but one has to figure homefield advantage will account for something tonight. Still, the number is a bit too high for my liking and I'm looking at the total instead.

These teams only meet once every four years, so the fact that every Bills-Seahawks game since 1989 has gone Over the total should be taken w/ a little grain of salt. Still, that's eight straight meetings though. The last time these teams played was 2012 in Toronto (remember that gimmick?) and Seattle won 50-17, basically kickstarting their ascension towards the top of the league. I wouldn't be looking for the Seahawks to score 50 pts again tonight, however. This offense can't run the ball at all. They average just 3.6 yards per carry, which ranks 27th, plus no team in the league has fewer runs of 15+ yards this year than does this one (3). The much maligned Seattle offensive line figures to have all sorts of trouble protecting QB Russell Wilson here as Buffalo ranks 1st in the league w/ 26 sacks. Wilson's health has been an issue and the 'Hawks have scored a grand total of 19 pts the L2 games. Particularly concerning was LW's 20-pt effort against an awful Saints defense.

While Seattle can't run, Buffalo often struggles to throw as they rank 31st in the league in passing. The Bills' own running game could be hampered if LeSean McCoy can't go. Of the team's five lowest scoring games this season, four took place on the road where they are now averaging just 18.7 points per game. As an underdog, Buffalo is 15-6 Under the L3 seasons. That includes 6-1 as a road dog of +3.5 to +7. 10* Under Bills/Seahawks

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Yesterday's win by Dallas (I was on 'em!) leaves only two teams winless across the league. They are New Orleans (many injuries) and "old reliable" Philadelphia. There hasn't been a lack of trying w/ these young Sixers, however. Saturday night saw them rally back from a double digit deficit here at home against Cleveland to lose by only a single point. Thus, they easily covered the spread there. Utah appears to be getting a bit too much respect by comparison and this is the second game of a back to back for them. Yesterday, in an early start time, the Jazz beat the Knicks by five (114-109), the return of Gordon Heyward to the lineup. But winning by any kind of margin here will prove difficult. Take the points.

Saturday night actually saw the Sixers come all the way back to take the lead on Cleveland before the incomparable LeBron James worked his magic and found an open Channing Frye for the GW three-pointer. Still, even though it was their 42nd consecutive loss in October/November, Philly should hold its head high. Joel Embid scored 22 points and was a perfect 4 for 4 from behind the three-point line. He currently leads the team, averaging 18.5 PPG. Three of the Sixers' losses this year have come by six points or less, two of them by two points or less! Other than the game vs. Atlanta, they've generally been pretty competitive.

As for Utah, we're all thinking this is their year to breakthrough into maybe the Top 5 in the Western Conference. It certainly was an encouraging sign to see Hayward score 28 points in his return Sunday afternoon. But the B2B scenario should catch up w/ the Jazz here. Laying points on the road is still fairly a new concept for this team. Note they trailed for the majority of the first three quarters yday, even by double digits in the first half. I don't see them shooting better than 50 percent for a second consecutive game. While Hayward is back, Alec Burks and Boris Diaw remain out, leaving them a bit short-handed and that can come back to bite a team when its playing w/o rest. 10* Philadelphia

6* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Coming into this season, four of the five Metro teams that made the playoffs LY - Rangers, Penguins, Caps, Islanders - were favored to get back there. However, the Isles are currently struggling (three straight losses) and only Carolina is keeping them out of the division basement. But a visit from lowly Vancouver should be "just what the doctor ordered" on Monday. Losers of eight straight, the Canucks are just awful and it wouldn't surprise me if they finished w/ the fewest number of points in the league this year.

Vancouver has played 12 games. They have scored only 20 goals. That's just heinous. Obviously, that average (1.6 per game) is last in the league and correspondingly they are 30th (last) on the power play as well (7.7 percent). They are off a 6-3 loss to the Maple Leafs on Saturday. The good news is that after being shutout four times in the previous five games, they scored three goals. The bad news is they allowed six on 42 shot attempts. The loss dropped them to 0-5 on the road this season and they're being outscored by two goals per game in such affairs.

Most disappointing for the Isles is that the entirety of their three-game losing streak has occurred here on home ice. But note that the last two games, against Philadelphia and Edmonton, both went to shootouts. They did outshoot the Oilers Saturday, 33-23, but it still wasn't enough. Still, I really like this team's chances of turning things around tonight. The previous two seasons have seen them go 8-3 SU when on a losing streak of three or more games.  6* NY Islanders

10* Under Flames/Ducks (9:35 ET): Other than the surprise start by Edmonton, there simply isn't anything impressive to report out of the Pacific Division right now. No other team is above .500 and 12 points is enough right now for three teams to be tied for second place. One of them is Anaheim, who I rode to an easy 5-1 victory two nights ago, here at home over Arizona. They play another division also-ran Sunday, Calgary, who just got shutout last night (5-0) in Los Angeles. This doesn't appear to be a particularly good spot for the Flames as it's the end of a brutal four games in six nights road trip and the oddsmakers have the Ducks north of -200 on the money line. It's the total I'm interested in though as you should go w/ the Under in this one.

So we know that Calgary was just shutout. It marked the third time in the last four games that they were held to one goal or less. They were outshot 39-24 and at the other end of the ice, goaltending has become a massive concern for this team. They rank 28th in goals allowed (3.5 per game) and the team's collective save percentage is an awful .879. Only Philadelphia ranks lower, so clearly this is what we have to be concerned about w/ a play on the Under. Thankfully though, the Under is 14-8 when the Flames are playing the second game of a back to back + we're getting a good number. It also figures to be Chad Johnson between the pipes here and he's been a lot steadier so far compared to Brian Elliott.

Anaheim's last four games have been an interesting case study in symmetry as they've exchanged final scores of 4-0 and 5-1. They lost by the 4-0 score to Columbus, then beat Los Angeles 4-0. Then it was a 5-1 loss to Pittsburgh and a 5-1 win oevr Arizona. John Gibson should be in goal here and he's been really solid vs. division foes w/ a .958 save percentage. The Ducks are 8th in goals allowed per game, which is good, and so is them ranking only 18th in goals scored per game. Only one time all year have they scored 3+ goals in back to back games. 10* Under Flames/Ducks

8* Dallas (7:05 ET): The decline of the Mavericks is something we all expected this year, but so far the decline has been more severe than initially thought. They enter Sunday as one of only three winless teams in the league. The other two are New Orleans (very injured) and Philadelphia (always terrible). In fact, the Mavs actually own the worst per game scoring differential in the Western Conference right now (-8.8). But they are favored tonight, at home, against an opponent playing w/o rest. Milwaukee won big on their home floor last night, 117-91 over Sacramento, and might be a bit too overvalued here as a result. I'm calling for Dallas to get its first SU win of the year. Lay the short number. 

Since scoring 121 pts in in an overtime loss to Indiana (season opener), the Mavs haven't hit 100 points again. After two of their first three losses either came in OT or by one point, it's been B2B double digit losses to Utah and Portland. But I'll make the argument that this is their weakest opponent yet. They have dominated Milwaukee through the years, winning 11 of the past 13 meetings including three straight here at home. Yes, I'm well aware there will be no Dirk Nowitzki tonight (or for the foreseeable future), but I think that the remaining pieces can get the job done. Thus far, the team is shooting just 41.8% from the floor. That number can only go up, right?

To my earlier point about the Bucks possibly being overvalued here, note that over the L3 seasons they are just 2-10 against the spread when on a three-game win streak. Going back more than a decade, they're 48-87 ATS in the role. They've beaten New Orleans, Indiana and Sacramento, but needed OT to get by the Pelicans and their only other road game so far resulted in a double digit loss to the Pistons. I don't think playing in the second night of a back to back does them any favors here either. Over the L3 seasons, they are just 15-27 SU when playing w/o rest and that includes the double digit loss to the Pistons I just spoke about.  8* Dallas

8* Indianapolis (4:25 ET): Using preseason "lookahead" lines, Green Bay was "supposed to be" a favorite in every game this year. But they ended up being a dog LW at Atlanta (+3), and while they covered, they also lost the game straight up 33-32. That SU drops the Pack to a surprising 4-3 on the year and I'm banking on "the world" being on them here. But the Colts are also off a loss (30-14 at home to Kansas City) and in danger of seeing their season slip away. We know we have two of the most talented QB's in the game on hand here, but it's likely to be some other contributor that proves to be the difference maker in this one. I'm going to take the points as it's rare to get this many w/ Andrew Luck.

If you've been following the Colts at all in recent years, then you know that they've been fortunate to experience a lot of luck, both with a capital and small "L." QB Andrew has certainly carried a deeply flawed roster (thanks Ryan Grigson!) as far as he can, but there's also been a great deal of good fortune along the way. Since Luck (the QB) was drafted, this team has gone a somewhat preposterous 30-11 SU in games decided by eight points or less. Ironically, the likely regression they are likely to experience in this department is what has me on them here. I feel the most likely result of this game is a close Indianapolis loss.

The Packers, like the Colts, are dealing with a ton of injuries right now. Their only win over the L3 weeks came at the expense of a Chicago team that was forced to turn to its third string QB for the majority of the game. That win is their only one of more than a touchdown all year. Meanwhile, three of the Colts' five losses have been by four points or less. So that regression I spoke of above is already starting to take hold. Many are now touting Rodgers' completion percentage over the L3 games, but note that LW vs. a suspect Falcons defense, he averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt. That won't get it done when trying to win by any kind of margin. While the fact the Colts are only 3-10 SU/5-8 ATS as a dog of 7 or more since '12 worries me, some of those games were w/o Luck, Andrew that is. 8* Indianapolis

10* Under Titans/Chargers (4:25 ET): Though they lost LW at Denver (27-19), I still feel confident in asserting that San Diego is the "best 3-5 team in the league." The Lightning Bolts haven't lost a game by more than eight points all season and while some fans may be disappointed by the current record, note that the team has been favored only twice this season. This will be third time, even though Tennessee comes in on extended rest, fresh off an impressive 36-22 Thursday night win last week. But the Titans haven't played on the road in awhile. Then again, this team doesn't mind playing away from home as that's where two of their three wins have come this year. I'm staying away from the side here (SD has been kind to me as a dog, but don't like them as much when favored) and looking at the total.

Tennessee comes into this game having gone Over in each of its last five games. They are off a season high in points scored (36) and total yardage (494). Thus, I feel comfortable in calling for a decrease in production this week. Now after averaging just 15.5 PPG the first four weeks, the Titans are up to 30 PPG the L4 wks. But they've been fortunate to face some pretty weak defenses of late, such as the Colts and Browns. Here they'll go up against a fairly underrated Chargers defense that just held Denver to only 324 yards and 15 first downs last week. Also note that one of the TD's allowed by San Diego LW came on a INT return. This is also a much higher O/U line than usual for Tennessee.

Philip Rivers' weapons have dropped like flies this year. He lost top wideout Keenan Allen in the first game and has been making chicken soup out of you know what w/ an unheralded corps. This offense has put up some nice point totals (avg 28.1 PPG), but the unit is a bit overrated considering they rank outside the Top 10 in yards per game. Back to the defense, they are allowing only 20 PPG here a home. Last week's game at Denver did go Over, but only b/c there were two defensive TD's in that game, one per side. The Chargers' offense actually had only two scoring drives in that game. Observing the line movement, it appears as if sharp money is on the Under here. So am I. 10* Under Titans/Chargers

10* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Are the 49ers worth a regular endorsement? No. But, coming off six straight ATS losses (longest active streak in the league) and a bye, they are most certainly worth a look here in a situation that appears to be most favorable. Not only are they off their bye week, but they happen to be catching New Orleans off a game against Seattle. I've regularly discussed the "car crash" type effect playing the Seahawks can have on a team the following week. In fact, my *10* Game of the Week selection for Week 8 was against the Cardinals, who were coming off the now-infamous 6-6 tie the week prior vs. Russell Wilson and company. So last week's surprise 25-20 win over Seattle somewhat works AGAINST the Saints here. It may not be quite the horrible situation that Arizona found itself in LW, but it's certainly worth fading New Orleans here.

I think that most folks, myself included, came into this NFL season thinking that the Saints' best years were behind them. Sure enough, they opened 0-3 SU and things were looking very bad w/ a leaky defense that was the worst in the entire league in 2015. But there's been a bit of a stunning turnaround over the last month w/ the team winning three of four. However, those three wins all have been by five points or less and by a grand total of nine points! Two of them were also at the Mercedes Benz Superdome, where they are always much better, and as dogs. The third SU win also saw them catching points, at San Diego, and that was quite the fortunate victory. The offense gained only 275 yds total in the contest and the team trailed by double digits w/ less than five minutes to play. However, TWO late fumbles by the Chargers basically gifted the Saints the win there. 

New Orleans can be a great value as a home dog, but not as a road favorite. Since 201o, they are just 10-19 ATS in the latter role, including 2-8 L10. The last time was Week 10 of LY and they were destroyed in Washington, 47-14. I know the 49ers don't offer much on paper, but a trip out to the West Coast can always be trouble. Don't believe me? Well, how about the fact New Orleans has lost EIGHT straight road games vs. the NFC West, going 1-7 ATS! Four of those games saw them actually favored. I still believe Colin Kaepernick to be Chip Kelly's best option under center. The bye week has allowed for RB Carlos Hyde to return to the lineup. Take the points. 10* San Francisco

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): I've heard a lot of crowing this week about how "the Eagles can't possibly drop to 0-3 (SU) in the division, can they?" Sure they can. After all, let us not forget that this team was projected to finish last in the NFC East coming into the year. They are now 4-3 SU, which quite frankly is as many wins as I thought they'd have all season. The stunning 3-0 SU start altered the collective viewpoint of Carson Wentz and company quite drastically. But a quick check back of that early season win streak reveals two of their victims were Cleveland and Chicago, the former being the clear cut choice for worst team in the league. (Bears are w/o a doubt bottom five). Since that 3-0 SU start, the Eagles are just 1-3 SU. Recall that I had them in that one win, but that was against a Minnesota team when the market had clearly shifted too far against the Eagles (they were +3 in the 21-10 upset). Here, they are in off an OT loss to Dallas (Sunday Night Game) and playing on the road against a rested, division foe. I believe them to be ripe to get blown out. Lay the short number here.

The Giants, as just mentioned, are off their bye week. They'd won B2B games prior, beating Baltimore and Los Angeles (in London), both by relatively close margins. Whereas sometimes we see the bye halt a team's momentum, I do not believe that will be the case w/ the G-Men here. This team has won six of the last eight years coming off its bye and I like 1st year HC Ben McAdoo to continue the trend here. While the rushing attack has been anemic to say the least, I still love the passing game w/ Eli Manning throwing to a bevy of quality receivers, Odell Beckham Jr chief among them. The Giants defense is much improved this season as it has allowed more than 24 points only one time. It's pretty shocking to see that this team has zero wins by more than seven points this year, but I'm calling for this to be their largest MOV to date. 

This is also a big revenge spot for the G-Men as the Eagles have swept them each of the last two seasons. But that was w/ a different coach and different personnel. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has shown major signs of regression over the last month as he's averaging a paltry 6.69 yards per pass attempt. The loss of WR Josh Huff certainly won't help the passing game and it also hurts the Eagles' special teams as he was their kick returner. This offense has averaged only 256 YPG the L3 weeks. Though their defense has kept them afloat, the Eagles are still being outgained for the year. 8* NY Giants

10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): I readily admit that it appears as if these are two teams headed in very opposite directions. But I'm serious when I say that you should not be surprised if, at the end of the day, the Jags pull the outright upset here. I'm expecting a supreme effort here as HC Gus Bradley is now officially on the hot seat after his team was drubbed last Thursday by Tennessee, 36-22. The reality is that the game was not as close as the final score indicates as Jacksonville trailed 27-0 at halftime and 36-8 early in the fourth quarter. The loss resulted in a change at offensive coordinator w/ Nathanial Hackett replacing Greg Olson. The bottom line is something had to be done w/ the team averaging only 19.9 PPG to this point. Take the points in this one.

Kansas City has won three straight since the bye, all by relatively comfortable margins. But there's some attrition going on here w/ starting QB Alex Smith and RB Spencer Ware both out for this game. There hasn't been much adjustment by the oddsmakers in the wake of those injuries, which is surprising to me. Granted, neither is a star player, but a team being w/o its starting QB and RB is pretty big time. I think too much stock is being put into Nick Foles, whom I've never had much regard for. Foles is familiar with Andy Reid (played for him in Philly) and looked good enough last week, but that was against an awful Colts defense. By the way, the Chiefs also just put RB Jamaal Charles on IR, so that means Charcandrick West will carry the load in the backfield. West has NEVER been an every down back in this league before.

I think that the extra time to prepare is going to be huge for Jacksonville here. When they were blown out by Tennessee, it was a bad spot as it was short week and they were off a tough loss to the Raiders. In many ways, this reminds me of the Bills in Week 3 (whom I played) as they had just made a change at OC after a Thurs night loss. The Bills wound up upsetting the Cardinals the following week, jumpstarting a nice run for them. The Jags' defense is pretty good actually (13th in yards per game allowed) and facing a short-handed KC offense, they'll keep the team in the game. This is the most points the Chiefs have been asked to lay at the betting window to date and they are already 0-2 ATS when laying six or more. 10* Jacksonville

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): I'd say we are getting fairly close to the "Dallas' bubble" bursting here. That's not to say the Cowboys are going to fall apart down the stretch, miss the playoffs or even fail to win their division. But the team has now covered six in a row following LW's overtime decision over Philadelphia. That was a game where they were hardly ever covering the five-point spread (there was an 11-minute stretch in the 2Q when they led by a touchdown) until the GW TD was scored in OT. Yes, they did outgain the Eagles by a ton (460-291), but that discrepancy certainly widened after the one drive in OT. (Also, that total yardage discrepancy could be used as further proof to play against the Eagles this week - see elsewhere in this three-pack). Of note to me is that Dallas has only twice been favored by more than a single points this season. Other than last week, Chicago was the other instance. Both times were at home. Here, they are decisive road favorite and getting the vast majority of public support. This smells like a "trap game" to me. Take the points.

Now, I can understand any potential unwillingness to support Cleveland, the league's lone winless team. The odds will say the Browns are going to finish this season winless (they'll be a dog in every game), a dubious distinction only "achieved" by the '08 Lions in a 16-game slate. But the Browns have at least been competitive this year. Half of their eight losses have come by six points or less. Last week, they led the Jets 20-7 at half, only to lose 31-28. They actually didn't cover there (closed +2.5), nor did they cover in games they led outright earlier in the season vs. Baltimore and Washington. But neither of those numbers were as large as this one is.

Injuries on both sides of the ball (secondary and offensive line) for the Cowboys threaten to keep this game closer than it "ought to be." Both Barry Church and Mo Claiborne are out in the defensive backfield for this one. As of press time, it remains unsettled as to whom will be under center for the Browns, but the reality is it's an irrelevant call as it won't affect my play whatsoever. Whether it's rookie Cody Kessler or veteran Josh McCown, either will have WR Corey Coleman to throw the ball to. Coleman has 173 receiving yards in the two games that he's played in. This is the first time that Dallas will be asked to lay at least a TD on the road since the 2011 season. 8* Cleveland

8* Nevada (10:15 ET): How about this Mountain West? While Boise State is still considered the team to beat in the Mountain Division, the Broncos no longer control their own destiny thanks to last week's loss to Wyoming. Also threatening to crash the party is New Mexico. Bob Davie's Lobos have won three in a row (since losing to Boise State) and two of those came as underdogs. Last week, they went out to the Island and "upset" Hawaii 28-21 as 2.5-point pups. The week after playing out in Honolulu is notorious for hangovers for College Football teams and in this case it's certainly newsworthy to see the Lobos laying this many points. So far, they have been DD chalk three times this season. Twice they failed to cover and once they lost outright (to New Mex State). They did beat LA Monroe 59-17 two weeks ago, as 15.5-pt chalk, but the Warhawks are a very bad team. Take the points here.

While New Mexico was out on the Island LW, Nevada had the week off. That's an edge worth noting for a Wolfpack team having an uncharacteristically "down year." They're not used to losing seasons in Reno, but currently Brian Polian's team is just 3-5 SU after a home loss to Wyoming two weeks ago. Things have gone even worse at the betting window w/ the team just 1-6-1 ATS. But I should point out that they have been the favorite in half of their games and a dog of eight points or less in three more. The only team they were DD dogs to was Notre Dame. This line looks like a real steal compared to the kinds of teams UNM has been asked to lay 10 or more to previously and that Nevada is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine times as a DD dog!

New Mexico has not beaten Nevada since 1941! They have lost three straight as conference rivals, including 35-17 LY in Reno. To show how far the market has shiften in the last year, the Lobos were four-point underdogs for the 2015 meeting. Note that Nevada is a perfect 5-0 SU the L3 seasons when coming off B2B SU losses. Their only ATS loss in those five games came four weeks ago against Fresno State, a game they won 27-22, but they were favored by seven in that spot. This a tricky spot for New Mexico, off a SU dog win at Hawaii, and the fact Nevada is rested is a big deal. 8* Nevada

10* Utah State (10:15 ET): HC Craig Bohl has engineered quite the turnaround in Laramie as Wyoming is your shocking leader in the MWC's Mountain Division on the heels of their somewhat shocking upset of Boise State last week. Such a result obviously is prone to make the following week the ultimate letdown and in this case we find the Pokes in the still somewhat irregular role of favorite. This will be just the third time all year that they've been favored to beat an FBS foe and one of the two previous accounts for one of their two SU losses. They lost at Eastern Michigan 27-24 as six-point chalk back on 9.23. A much shorter and recent trip to Nevada brought about a push using the closing line (42-34, -8), but that's not enough to convince me that laying the points here would be wise.

While Wyoming is exceeding expectations, Utah State is currently falling short of them. A perennial power in the Mountain West, the Aggies stand at just 3-5 SU overall, including 1-4 in conference play. They were humbled LW at home, 40-13 by San Diego State, a game they gave up a ghastly 400 yards rushing. But that was the first time that Matt Wells' team had failed to be competitive in league play ths year. They have also had Wyoming's number through the years, winning four straight all by double digits. Last year, it was 58-27 in Logan and they were 26-point favorites. That's a 30+ point swing in just one year's time! Clearly, the tables have turned, but few could have projected - even a few weeks ago - that USU would come in here at the underdog. Let's not discount the fact that the Aggies have also had one extra day to prepare here. That could come in handy.

Wyoming absolutely should be commended for the win over Boise State last week, but note they actually won the game on a late safety, that came w/ just over a minute remaining. They trailed by eight halfway through the fourth quarter and were it not for a two-point conversion and safety, they probably lose. It was the third upset in the last four weeks and first win over a ranked opponent since '02. So, yes, I'd say the letdown is in full effect here. The Cowboys have not covered as a favorite against a FBS foe since beating Air Force in the fourth week of the 2013 season! Since then, they are 0-7-1 ATS including four outright losses. This is just the third time they've been favored to beat a FBS foe in the L19 games. Take the points. 10* Utah State

10* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): Both of these Western Conference powers won last night, on the road. The Clippers went to Memphis and won 99-88 and really things were in line to be a bit more lopsided (Grizzlies outscored them 31-23 in the fourth quarter). LA led by as many as 21 in the contest and what should be real scary for San Antonio here is the fact the Clips were able to win so comfortably despite shooting only 37.6% from the floor. The Spurs, meanwhile, gained a measure of revenge for their only loss of the season Friday night. They beat Utah 100-86 as a short favorite, payback for a 106-91 home loss that took place earlier in the week (Jazz were my *10* Game of the Week in that first meeting). In this battle of heavyweights, I'll take the points.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. It's the familiar names on top of the Western Conference standings right now and the Clippers are right in the thick of things w/ a 4-1 SU and ATS record. Their only loss so far came by two points, at home, to fellow one loss team Oklahoma City (were seven-point favorites there). Considering last night and that the loss to OKC came by a score of 89-87, it shouldn't surprise you to learn that it's now been B2B poor shooting efforts from Chris Paul and company. But what should surprise you is the fact this team is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency - by a wide margin. They are giving up just 0.89 points per possession, a remarkable achievement when you consider San Antonio led the league LY at 0.96. Obviously, keeping that pace up will be difficult for Doc Rivers' team, but if they can stay near the top of the league, they'll have no trouble at all finishing at least third in the West this year.

We know how Greg Popovich sometimes treats these back to back efforts, so there is always the chance some key Spurs could be rested. They are already w/o their starting backcourt of Danny Green and Tony Parker. Therefore, I highly recommend betting this one now as we've already seen the number start to come down. Note: this play still stands regardless of line movement. Note that the Clips are a strong 29-12 SU in the second game of a back to back the L3 seasons, including an 18-pt win over Phoenix earlier this year. This projects to be a low-scoring game, so taking the points is the way to go. 10* LA Clippers

8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Eyes tend to open when we have spreads such as this for a battle of teams ranked in the Top 10. But the often laughable CFP committee's rankings is not something I'd put a ton of stock in. Sure, they tend to get the teams at the top right, but after that, it's a total "crapshoot." Truth be told, only one of the teams involved here is a legit top 10 squad and I'll give you a hint ... it's not Nebraska. Sure, Ohio State has looked shaky in recent weeks, failing to cover four in a row. But they're at home here and catching the Cornhuskers at a most opportune time, that being the second of B2B road games. That's the precise spot that gave the Buckeyes their only loss in 2016. In Nebraska's case, last week was their first SU loss of the season and it came in overtime at Wisconsin. Lay the points.

Prior to the ATS losing streak, right-minded people were questioning if OSU might be on par w/ top ranked Alabama. Clearly, that was a case of "putting the cart before the horse," but this remains one of the most talented teams in all the land under HC Urban Meyer. In five years in Columbus, Meyer has gone 57-5 straight up. But clearly w/ a line such as this, a SU win is something we're taking for granted. As for the margin of victory, how soon we forget this Buckeyes team went to Norman, Oklahoma in September and won easily, 45-24. They are outscoring foes by 27.5 PPG for the year. In that loss to Penn State, they still outgained the Nittany Lions 413-276. Last week, they ran and passed for 200+ in a closer than it should have been 24-20 win over Northwestern.

Last week was clearly Nebraska's toughest test to date and they scored only 17 pts and gained 305 total yards in Madison. This is a bigger step up in class and it's the second straight road game. Teams coming off their first loss tend to struggle the week after the "bubble is burst" and that's what I'm banking on here. It's a much different offense that the Cornhuskers' defense will face here compared to last week. I think it speaks volumes that despite catching roughly only 20 percent of all wagers for this matchup, Ohio State has seen the line increase rather dramatically. Yes, about 80% of the public is fading the Buckeyes, which is almost unheard of. Yet, the so-called "sharp money" has spoken and it's saying "O-H-I-O."  8* Ohio State

8* Montreal (7:05 ET): Wait. What happened last night? The Canadiens lost 10-0 to Columbus? I had to hit refresh on my internet browser a few times when I saw that score, because I simply could not believe it. But it's true. But there is one major caveat that needs to be pointed out from last night. Carey Price did not play for the Habs. Rather, it was Al Montoya turning in one of the most disastrous performances between the pipes in recent memory. It should be pointed out that four of the eight goals allowed in the first two periods, the Habs were short-handed. That's no excuse for the final score, mind you. But w/ Price back tonight, I look for this team to be very angry and eager to bounce back. Roll w/ them here.

Consider that even after last night Montreal still ranks #1 in the league in goals allowed per game! That's how dominant they'd been. Yesterday marked their first loss in regulation following a 9-0-1 start. They were on an eight-game win streak heading into Columbus. It certainly didn't take a "brain surgeon" to predict improvement out of the Habs this year w/ the return of a healthy Price. Last year, this team got off to a great start, but once Price was lost the team went in the tank. It is troubling to see something like last night after LY's awful finish. But the bottom line is we have Price, at home, tonight. In six games this year, Price has a .964 save percentage as he's allowed just seven goals on 193 shots! The team has not lost a game that Price has started this year. In their first 10 games, this team had allowed just 14 goals total.

Considering the way the word "embarrassing" is being thrown around the Habs' locker room (in reference to last night's loss), it may be a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for Philadelphia here. Yes, the Flyers come in riding a three-game win streak, but the last two came beyond regulation, so those could have gone either way. These teams have already met once this year at the Bell Centre w/ the Canadiens prevailing 3-1 thanks to 31 saves from Price. It was the Flyers' fourth straight loss here in the province of Quebec. Over the L3 seasons, Philly is 3-10 SU when riding a three-game win streak. 8* Montreal

10* Missouri (4:00 ET): Like TCU, Mizzou let me down last week but I'll keep the faith. For a second straight week, the Tigers lost outright. This time, it was to Kentucky, 35-21 laying seven points. The previous week saw them lose 51-45 to Middle Tennessee on Homecoming Weekend (were favored by 8.5 there). Now 2-6 SU, they're back to being underdog, which should suit them better. I especially like this line because the opponent, South Carolina, is not a side you want to be caught laying points with. Not only because they are averaging only 17.7 PPG for the year, but they are also 0-5 against the spread AND straight up when laying 3.5 to 10 pts the L3 seasons. Furthermore, the Gamecocks should be prone to a letdown coming off a somewhat shocking win over Tennessee last week, 24-21 as 15-pt home dogs. Take the points.

The last two weeks have seen South Carolina score 34 and 24 points. Prior to that, they had not scored more than 20 in any game. So, again, you can see why fading this team as chalk might be a prudent maneuver. They've been a favorite just twice all year and once they were only caught laying 1.5 pts to East Carolina (won 20-15). The other time was two weeks ago and as 20-pt favorites, they only managed to beat UMass 34-28. That UMass game marked the debut of freshman QB Jake Bentley in the starting lineup. Before Bentley, this offense had only two TD passes in in six games. Bentley has thrown four the past two games. But still, a six-point win over UMass proves little to me. Last week's upset of Tennessee saw the Gamecocks benefit tremendously from a +3 turnover margin. One also has to question what the Vols had left in the tank following a difficult scheduling gauntlet. 

I mentioned South Carolina's horrible mark as a favorite earlier. Well, on the other side of the ledger, Missouri happens to be a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the road underdog role when priced between 3.5 and 7 points. Four consecutive ATS losses seems like a streak due to come to and end. Since beating South Carolina last year, 24-10 as three-point favorites, the Tigers have lost 10 straight SEC games. Another streak that seems like it "has to end." This is a good "buy low" spot for a team that will be desperate to hold onto bowl eligibility. 10* Missouri

10* Arizona (4:00 ET): The Pac 12 has been turned upside down this year. Washington is the clear class of the league and while perennial power USC is also involved in conference championship chatter, the rest of the contenders are unfamiliar names. Teams like Oregon, Stanford and UCLA have been replaced in the pecking order by the likes of Colorado and Washington State. The latter is actually tied w/ rival Washington atop the North Division currently (both 5-0 SU in league play). Meanwhile, there's only one team w/o a win in league play and that would be Arizona. It's certainly been a trying year in Tucson for Rich Rod, but despite the disparate records, I feel his side is the one with the value here. Take the points.

Predictably, Arizona has been a disaster at the betting window this season (more on that later). But, over the last three weeks, Wazzu is 0-3 ATS itself. What's notable about that is the Cougs were favored in every game. While they've still managed to win all three straight up, each win came by six points or less and just 15 total. The only other times they've been favored this year was against Idaho (terrible) and Eastern Washington (FCS). They actually lost to the latter outright in the season opener. This now looks to be the most points they will have laid to a conference foe in many, many years. Yes, it's even more than they laid last wee against Oregon State, a program that has just one Pac 12 win the L2 seasons. Mike Leach has his team ranked and that can certainly create an overvaluation in the marketplace. Remember; they trailed OSU last week, 24-6 at the half. The last time that WSU laid 17 or more points to a Pac 12 foe was 2012 vs. Colorado (were -20). They lost that game outright.

Arizona, admittedly, has not been competitive since taking Washington to overtime back on September 24th. Last week, I expected more as they were off a bye week hosting Stanford. Instead, they lost 34-10. Rich Rod is dealing w/ a lot of attrition this year, most notably at the QB position w/ injuries. But I'll call for better play at that position this week, no matter whom is under center. Also, this is a revenge spot for the Wildcats, who lost 45-42 LY in Tucson as seven-point favorites. 10* Arizona

10* TCU (3:30 ET): Neither team had a good Saturday last week and in the case of TCU, they helped spoil mine. I laid the points w/ the Horned Frogs and expected a massive offensive day facing a suspect (to say the least!) Texas Tech defense. What I got instead was an outright loss as 9.5-point favorites, 27-24, in double overtime. At no point in the game was TCU covering. It's been quite the disappointing campaign thus far in Ft. Worth w/ Gary Patterson's team now a revolting 1-7 at the betting windown (only 4-4 SU). Meanwhile, Baylor's last game went no better for them as they suffered their first loss, 35-35 at Texas, and did so off a bye. Things have gotten ugly in Waco as well, although mainly for off the field reasons as the Bears are still trying to recover from the untimely departure of former HC Art Briles. 

Three of TCU's four losses this year have come by six points or less, so this number looks like a bargain. The first of those three losses came to Arkansas, 41-38, in double overtime. So including last week, that's two 2OT losses for the Horned Frogs this year. The other close loss they suffered came to Oklahoma, 52-46. This line here stands to be the most points that TCU gets in any game all regular season long. This is a team that had gone 5-0 ATS as an underdog the L2 seasons. It is quite rare to find them getting more than a touchdown from the oddsmakers. It happened three times when the team finished 4-8 SU in 2013. They went 3-0 ATS in those games, including a cover at Baylor's expense in the reg season finale. 

Baylor has hardly been a juggernaut at the pay windown this year, covering only two of seven games. They'd played a very week schedule prior to running into Texas. Their non-conference opponents were Northwestern State, SMU and Rice. Since the start of Big 12 play, we've seen the defense give up an average of 431 YPG. These schools have developed quite the rivalry in recent years w/ each of the L3 meetings decided by seven points or less. That includes the infamous 2014 meeting here in Waco where TCU blew a 3 TD lead (lost 61-58), ultimately costing themselves a shot at the first College Football Playoff. Whereas TCU's issues are correctable, I feel Baylor is a program in total disarray due to all the off the field scandal. I'll take the points. 10* TCU

8* Over San Jose State/Boise State (10:15 ET): Like Central Michigan-Miami, this is a matchup where the underdog won and the favorite lost in those respective roles last week. Boise State's 30-28 loss at Wyoming (were 14.5-pt favorites) could prove quite costly, literally, as it puts the Broncos behind Western Michigan in the race for the top "Group of Five" team, a spot which gets honored with a placement in a "New Year's Day Bowl." I certainly do expect the Broncos to bounce back from their first loss of the season, but this price range is a little rich for my tastes, even though San Jose State is unlikely to match what we saw LW vs. UNLV, a game they led wire to wire and won 30-24. Instead, let's look at the total. Take the Over.

Both teams have been staying Under recently, so that means we should probably be prepared for some scoring breakthroughs. I say that knowing full well that SJSU had scored only 34 points total in the three games prior to LW's upset. Against UNLV, both WR's - Tre Hartley and Tim Crawley - posted career highs in receiving yardage. So, it's a lot to ask of this offense to come close to repeating what we saw last week. Fortunately though, Boise State figures to do most of the "heavy lifting" at the expense of a SJSU defense which has already given up 40 or more points four times this year. Furthermore, there have been only two games this season where they didn't give up at least 34. They allow nearly 500 YPG on the road. Last year, at home, they gave up 40 points in a loss to Boise State.

Things have not gone well for the Spartans here on the blue turf as they've lost all six previous visits by an average of 36 points per game! Boise State clearly will be in an ornery mood after LW's loss and this is an offense averaging just over 500 yards per game the L3 weeks. Yet, they've scored exactly 28 points in each of those three contests, which seems low. When they beat BYU two weeks ago, five turnovers prevented them from scoring more. Here, I expect the Broncos to top the 35.1 PPG that San Jose State allows. Also, Boise State is allowing 26.7 PPG the L3 weeks. The Over is 10-5 in SJSU's previous 15 road games. 8* Over San Jose St/Boise St

6* Anaheim (10:05 ET): Only one team has fewer points than Arizona (8) right now, but the 'Yotes do enter in tonight off B2B wins. But both were at home. They are currently giving up the most goals per game in the league right now (3.7) and their special teams are lousy (28th ranked power play, 24th on the penalty kill). Despite winning those last two games, the team was outshot severely in both, including 37-28 by Nashville last night, which went to a shootout.

Playing in the second game of a back to back, on the road, I don't like Arizona's chances here. Not w/ the Ducks looking to rebound from a 5-1 loss here the other night (to Pittsburgh). Though the difference on the scoreboard was pretty sizable vs. the Pens, the difference in shots (-1) was not. Note that off their previous home loss, which was a 4-0 shutout vs. Columbus, the Ducks bounced back to shutout Los Angeles (also 4-0) and that was on the road. That win improved this team to 27-16 after scoring 1 goal or less the previous game.

Remember how I mentioned Arizona is giving up the most goals per game in the league right now? Well, on the road, the numbers are disastrous. They allow 4.5 per game. That helps explain why they've lost five of six away from home. Also, no team is allowing more shots per game (35.1) than this one. Those are some scary numbers and I really like Anaheim to bounce back here given that this is only their fifth home game of the season. While these two teams might be next to each other in the alphabet, they are miles apart on the ice. 6* Anaheim.

10* Washington (7:05 ET): At 0-3 SU and ATS, the Wizards are one of just four teams w/o a SU win so far. They are the ONLY team that has not covered. I look for that to come to an end after tonight when they host the team that beat them in the series opener, that being Atlanta. The Wizards have played the fewest number of games in the league to this point, so they still should be fresh. I readily admit to playing the Wiz in the aforementioned season opener and though they lost by 15, it was a one-point game entering the 4th quarter. They also blew a lead on the road, at Memphis, the following game. Wednesday night in the home opener, one would have hoped that things would turn around (I know I hoped they would!), but instead they lost to Toronto 113-103 - despite shooting 58.3% from the floor!

The Hawks had the best point differential in the league (+19.3) through the first week, but suffice to say that was going to last. I played against them Wednesday when they lost outright, at home, to the Lakers. The final score there was 123-116 and the Hawks came in favored by 12. They allowed LA to shoot 53.9% overall and score 72 points after halftime. With the losses of Jeff Teague and Al Horford in the offseason, questions are abound re: this team. Defensively, they had been able to maintain last year's standard. That was before facing LA though.

Scoring has not been an issue for Washington, who has been in every game. They just need to learn how to finish and not turn the ball over. It's not like this is a young team; they have a talented backcourt. They were my pick to win the Southeast and while early returns have not been good, I'm not giving up. Look for this to be their first win of the year. 10* Washington

8* UConn (7:00 ET): Temple was a major breakout team last year as they opened 7-0 SU (ranked #22) before losing a nationally televised home game to Notre Dame. From that point on, it was a bit of a limp to the finish as they lost four of their final seven games, including the Boca Raton Bowl to Toledo. I think that everybody (myself included) figured regression would be in the cards for HC Matt Rhule in 2016 and that premonition looked accurate in the early going w/ the Owls starting just 3-3 SU. But not only has the team won its last three games, they've been a covering machine all season. After dropping the season opener at home to Army (28-13, were 14-pt favorites), the Owls have covered eight in a row, most recently a 34-13 win nine-point chalk LW vs. Cincinnati. But this week marks the first time all year that we find them in the role of road favorite. Take the points here.

UConn's season has not gone particularly well, whether you're talking on the field or at the betting window. The Huskies enter this game at 3-6 SU/2-7 ATS and have just one win since mid-September. Last week was perhaps the nadir as they got clobbered at East Carolina, losing 41-3 as seven-point underdogs. There, they were coming off a loss in their "big rivalry game" to UCF, so it wasn't the most ideal of spots. Still though, it was an awful loss and one that clearly affected this line. But the overadjustment is something we must take advantage of here. More often than not, the Huskies' defense shows up, particularly in Storrs. Last year, UConn allowed fewer than 20 points per game for the season. They've maintained that average this year, at least at home, where they give up only 19.0 PPG. 

Though 41-3 is very ugly, UConn did itself no favors LW by committing three turnovers. The Huskies have generally saved all their worst performances for the road where they are not only winless, but have lost three times (in four chances) by double digits. But at home, they have not lost by more than eight points. That loss came to UCF, who they still outgained and actually led 13-0 early in the game. Remember, UConn beat Houston here at home last season. They then had to go to Temple the following week and predictably got whacked, but the line here isn't much different from what it was LY in Philly and that's something worth noting. Temple ran 79 plays LW (compared to only 49 for Cincinnati). Bottom line is that I cannot see their ATS win streak (now the longest in the country!) continuing. 8* UConn

8* Central Michigan (6:00 ET): Here we have the somewhat "classic" situation of a favorite off an outright loss (in the chalk role) taking on an underdog that won SU (as a dog) the previous week. It's actually one of two such games on Friday's card (also San Jose St @ Boise St). Spoiler alert: there's also one such game on Saturday - stay tuned. Often times, I like to exploit this situation because the respective teams become over and undervalued for the following game. Getting back to the task at hand, the team here off a SU dog win last week should be familiar to those that are regular clients. I had Miami +7 last week and all they did was go to Ypsilanti and defeat Eastern Michigan by a score of 28-15. They never even trailed. But even though they're returning to Oxford this week, they're still an underdog and I believe this line to be way too short. Lay the points.

All things considered, Central Michigan had a massively successful season in 2015. Despite abruptly losing their previous head coach in January, the Chippewas managed to go 6-2 SU in MAC play and tie for 1st place in the West Division. They outgained conference foes by an impressive 83.8 YPG. Current HC John Bonamego figured to be in a much better spot entering year #2 w/ 16 returning starters including senior QB Cooper Rush. Sure enough, the Chips opened this year at 3-0 SU. But they have since dropped four of five SU. Last week saw their 11-game win streak against the MAC East come to an end in shocking fashion as the fell 27-24 (as 12-pt favorites) to lowly Kent State, in Mt Pleasant no less. They did outgain the Golden Flashes ever so slightly (349-340) and led by as many as two touchdowns midway through the third quarter. But they were undone by four turnovers and lost on a GW FG w/ no time remaining.

For evidence of value on CMU in this week's matchup, look no further than last month when they were actually a similar sized favorite at Virginia, a Power 5 school! The Chippewas also won at Oklahoma State earlier this year, albeit in controversial fashion. They have won five of the last six matchups with Miami. The RedHawks have won three in a row, but were 0-6 SU to open the season remember. Two of their wins were against Kent State and Bowling Green. As much as liked them last week, that was because they were getting more points against an inferior squad (compared to CMU). I look for the Chippewas to get back on track. 8* Central Michigan

10* UCLA (9:00 ET): A season that they'd hope would "turn up roses" (i.e. Rose Bowl appearance) has instead turned into an unmitigated disaster for UCLA. The Bruins were my call to win the Pac 12 South this year, but here we find them w/ five losses already heading into November. Difficult as it is to imagine, the news just keeps getting worse as star QB Josh Rosen (missed L2 games) is now expected to be out for the remainder of the season w/ a shoulder injury. UCLA comes into tonight having dropped three in a row, all by seven pts or less, and will again turn to Mike Fafaul as their starter under center. At 2-6 ATS for the season, I feel the Bruins come in greatly undervalued for this contest as this line would have been considered unfathomable two months ago. Take the points.

Colorado, meanwhile, is your surprise leader in the Pac 12 South (6-2 overall, 4-1 conference). The Buffs are the ONLY team in the country w/o an ATS blemish on the resume as they come in at a perfect 8-0 at the pay window. Their only two SU losses came at the hands of Michigan and USC. They are coming off a 10-5 win over Stanford where they clearly benefited from a +4 turnover margin. So there's been some good fortune along the way and you have to wonder how long that will last. Even in their only Pac 12 loss (at USC), they were fortunate to cover considering they were outgained 539-371, but again forced four TO's to keep it close (lost 21-17 as 5-pt pups). There was also the matter of USC taking a knee inside the 5-yd line to run the time out. I have a lot of respect for what HC Mike MacIntyre has done in Boulder, but we've gotten to a point where his team is overvalued, I think.

To me, the big stories are that CU is still unbeaten ATS and that over the summer, they probably would have been considered underdogs in this matchup. As Pac 12 rivals, UCLA is 5-0 SU. The last two years have seen them prevail by just three and four points, but still that doesn't mean they deserve to be getting this many points. Fafaul now has plenty of game experience and completed 40 out of a mind-numbing 70 pass attempts vs. Utah. The Bruins' five losses this season have come by a total of 32 points, or less than 7 PPG. This will easily be the most points that they have gotten from the oddsmakers in any game this season. 10* UCLA

8* Chicago (8:35 ET): The city of Chicago has to be on "cloud nine" right now after the Cubs won the World Series last night. But let us not be quick to forget the number of championships the Blackhawks have given the city in recent times. Three times Stanley Cup Winners since 2010 (last won in '15), the 'Hawks are flying pretty high right now as three straight wins have them tied for 1st place in the always tough Central Division. They and Minnesota both have 13 points, which is five more than today's opponent, Colorado. I expect the home team to dominate at the "Madhouse on Madison."

The Avs come in having dropped three of four. In eight games, they've scored only 20 goals, which is tied for the third fewest in the league right now. That lack of offensive production will sting you when visiting the "Madhouse on Madison" where the home team happens to be averaging a whopping 4.1 goals per game this year. In fact, only two teams have scored more goals this season than has Chicago. Making matters worse for Colorado is that they come in averaging only 25.4 shots per game on the road, a very low number.

Blackhawks goalie Corey Crawford has played very well of late w/ a .961 save percentage his L4 starts. He was dominant Wednesday night vs. Calgary, stopping 32 of 33 shots in a 5-1 win. Meanwhile, Colorado was on the wrong side of that exact same score at home against Nashville. It's likely to be Semyon Varlamov back between the pipes tonight and his save percentage is dipping close to below .900 for the season. That's not good. Nor is the fact Chicago took three of four against Colorado last year, putting a ton of shots on goal in this process. This is a very good matchup for the home side. 8* Chicago

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Anyone thinking there might a "championship hangover" with the Cavaliers best think again as they are off to a 4-0 start, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game. Certainly, it will be a bit of a somber mood tonight in Cleveland after the Indians dropped Game 7 of the World Series across the plaza last night. But that's nothing that LeBron and company can't rectify. This is a big Eastern Conference matchup on TNT considering much has been made of Boston being the Cavs top contender this season. But as you can see, the oddsmakers still believe there to be quite a gap at the top of the pecking order. I agree and will lay the points here as the Celtics are in the second game of a back to back.

The Celtics did win last night, 107-100 at home against Chicago, placing them as one of a number of teams in the East at 3-1 SU, one game behind the Cavs. But Boston is only +3.0 in per game point differential, which shows they've hardly been dominant. In fact, every one of their games have been decided by seven points. Under Brad Stevens, they have been an outstanding bet in the second game of a back to back, going 25-12 ATS (league-best during that time). But this is quite the challenge as they could be w/o both Al Horford and Jae Crowder due to injury. Horford is in the league's concussion protocol after leaving last night's game. Crowder sprained his ankle. The team was fortunate to be picked up by Amir Johnson, whose 23-point effort included four three-pointers. Don't expect a repeat of that here.

Cleveland was not at its best defensively (far from it) Tuesday night against Houston, but that can be excused given the Rockets forced the pace of play. The #1 team in offensive efficiency thus far, the Cavs scored 128 points for the game, which was moved up to a 6:05 ET start to accommodate the World Series. Even after allowing 120 pts to the Rockets, the Cavs are still top nine in defensive efficiency in the early going. They held both New York and Toronto to under 39% from the field. With Boston having struggled defensively against some subpar offensive opponents thus far, I expect James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love to all have big games here in what should turn into a somewhat surprising blowout. 8* Cleveland

8* Over Buffalo/Ohio (6:05 ET): Both teams here are coming off massive upsets last week. I was on Buffalo last Thursday as they crushed Akron, as 17-pt home dogs, 41-20. Ohio, meanwhile, went to Toledo (were 15-pt dogs) and prevailed 31-26 (1st win in Toledo since '67!). That was the far more impressive win of the two, which is why we find Frank Solich's Bobcats as such prohibitive favorites for this Thursday night tilt in Athens. I have zero interest in playing the side in this one, but the total most definitely has caught my eye due to the rash of Unders we've seen from both teams. After going way over in its season opener (56-54 loss to Texas St in 3 OTs), Ohio is 7-0-1 Under its last eight games. Buffalo has gone Under in three straight and six of eight overall this season. Because of this, we have a pretty low total here. I say it's "high time" to take advantage and play these teams Over the total.

Right now, Ohio is in the driver's seat in the MAC East (1st place) and in line to take on conference heavyweight Western Michigan in the MAC Championship Game. They will be favored in two of their remaining three games, all of which will be played on weekdays. This is actually a big revenge game for the Bobcats as they lost LY in Buffalo - as two-point favorites - 41-17. Four of the last five meetings vs. the Bulls, including last year's, have gone Over the total. Buffalo, who snapped a four-game losing streak LW w/ its highest scoring game of the season, is just 2-6 SU this year. They are a perfect 6-0 Over the L3 seasons, on the road, when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points. 

This projects to be one of the lowest totals for either team this season. Though they scored a season high in points LW, Buffalo still stayed Under (barely) as the total closed at 62 points. The number was the same the prev week in a 44-7 loss at Northern Illinois. While it certainly is difficult to call for the Bulls to match LW's offensive production (they ran for 378 yards!), note that their leaky defense should rectify any regression in that department. Two of the previous three games saw them ALLOW 40+ points. For the year, they allow 31.7 PPG. Meanwhile, the rash of Unders for Ohio has not come w/o strong offensive efforts. Last week, they gained 500+ yards against Toledo. They average 35.2 PPG for the year here at Peden Stadium. Averaging 423 YPG for the year (all games) is nothing to "sneeze at" either. Save for a game against lowly Kent State, this will be the lowest total for any Bobcats game so far this season. 8* Over Buffalo/Ohio

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): I'm about to make a very dangerous pivot in this year's World Series. After saying all year that the Cubs would win, I'm going against them in this deciding Game 7 as I think there's simply too much value on the Indians to pass up. Corey Kluber is the key to this one as he should be the best player on the field. While this will be his second consecutive start on three days' rest, note that if needed the Cleveland bullpen (including Andrew Miller) is rested and ready. Meanwhile, I thought Cubs' manager Joe Maddon errored badly in his use of Aroldis Chapman in Game 6. Last night's game basically swung on two key plays; an Indians fielding error in the first and an Addison Russell grand slam. Home teams tend to exhibit better win probabilities when off a loss of the kind of margin we saw Cleveland on the wrong side of yday. I'm calling for the Indians to win the World Series.

Before yday's game (where they were clear favorites), the Cubs were essentially a 2:1 proposition to win the WS. Now, we can get the Indians at essentially even money w/ Kluber on the hill. That's a bargain. Kluber has been remarkable in the playoffs, going 5 for 5 in terms of quality starts and allowing just 3 ER in 30 1/3 IP. Yes, all three runs allowed came in the games he was working on three days rest. But those were both still quality outings by any objective measure. Over his L7 starts, Kluber has a 6-1 TSR w/ a 1.55 ERA. The team has won 14 of his 19 starts here at Progressive Field this season. Manager Terry Francona (who has been excellent throughout this postseason) figures to have a "quick hook" if Kluber does show signs of faltering as all the key cogs in the bullpen are ready to go.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are going w/ Kyle Hendricks tonight. Take him out of the Friendly Confines and he's not as effective. His ERA more than doubles. Granted that number is only 2.95, but still. The Cubs' bullpen is a far more shaky proposition right now w/ Chapman's usage. He's thrown 62 pitches the L2 games as Maddon seems afraid to turn to any other reliever. Yes, Jon Lester is an option in this one, but he'd be operating only on three days rest himself. This game is likely decided by who scores first and the fact that Hendricks has gone longer than 5 1/3 only once in four postseason starts is an issue. When I took the Cubs in Game 5, I made mention that they had not lost three straight games since the All-Star Break. Well, that's happened only three times to the Indians! 10* Cleveland

8* New York (7:35 ET): I don't have much affinity for the present construction of this Knicks squad (imagine trying to run the triangle offense in 2016 w/ Derrick Rose no less!), but this is a really favorable spot for them as they catch Houston off a big game in Cleveland. In a game where the start time was moved up to accommodate the World Series, the Rockets came up short, 128-120 against the World Champion Cavaliers. My gosh, this is a bad defensive team. Thus far, they are giving up an alarming 1.13 points per possession, the worst such mark in the league. Consider that the Lakers were last a year ago, allowing 1.09. That gap is far more significant that you might think. It's absolutely ludicrous that the Knicks were attracting so much action before the season to win the NBA Finals, but for one night they'll look good.

Of course, the Knicks also played last night and lost. Defense wasn't necessarily their problem; rather they shot only 40.7% in a 102-89 loss. Both road games have resulted in less than desirable performances thus far as they also scored only 88 pts in a loss at Cleveland Opening Night. But the Knicks' one previous home game saw them score 111 pts in a win over Memphis. I'm calling for something along those lines here against the defensively inept Rockets. On the positive side, Rose at least contributed a season-high 19 points last night. For Houston, James Harden had a legendary game (41-15-7) last night in Cleveland, but it still wasn't enough. Harden is highly unlikely to match those kind of numbers again tonight; thus it's pretty tough to make a case for the Rockets winning. It's a heavy burden on Harden right now as starting PG Patrick Beverly remains out.

Dating back to January of 2010, these teams have played a total of 13 games. The Knicks have won only once straight up (3-10 ATS), but that one win did come last year. Keep in mind they have fielded some pretty bad teams through the years. Also, all three ATS wins have come in the L5 meetings. I just think that the burden on Harden is too great in this second game of a back to back. Adding to the problem is that Trevor Ariza sustained a head injury last night and is listed as questionable here. 8* New York

8* LA Lakers (7:35 ET): Through the first week of the season, it is Atlanta that owns the league's best per game point differential at +19.3. Don't expect them to keep that up, however, as this certainly does not grade out as one of the league's better teams. (I had them rated eighth in the East coming into the year). So, even hosting the Lakers, I look for that lofty point differential to start coming down. Be aware that the Hawks led the Wizards by only one point entering the fourth quarter in their season opener. It was a similar situation Monday hosting Sacramento as they trailed entering the 4Q of that one, before outscoring the Kings 27-14 over the final 12 minutes. This impressive point differential of theirs is basically owed to one game, that being a 104-72 road rout of lowly Philadelphia Sunday afternoon. I'm taking the points here.

This is the Lakers' fourth consecutive road game and second of a back to back. That helps to explain why tonight's line is a bit inflated. Since surprising Houston, 120-114 (as six-point dogs) in the season opener (at home), it's been three straight losses for Los Angeles. But they've covered in two of the three, at Utah and last night at Indiana. Yet, we still find them getting the most points they've gotten in any game on the trip here tonight. I patently disagree with the idea of Atlanta laying more points to an opponent than Oklahoma City, the one team the Lakers have failed to cover against on this trip. Even that was a relatively competitive game for Luke Walton's team as they trailed by only four w/ just under five minutes remaining. Last night, they were more than competitive w/ the Pacers, rallying back from a 16-pt deficit to take the lead for a brief time in the fourth quarter.

With Kobe Bryant out of the picture, the Lakers can now actually focus on getting better as a team. Last year was a disgrace that stunted the growth of the young players, who had to sit idly by and watch Kobe jack up an inordinate number of shots. We've already seen a modicum of improvement in the early going under Walton. I simply cannot support Atlanta in this price range. 8* LA Lakers

10* Over Canucks/Canadiens (7:35 ET): Montreal would seem to have a significant advantage heading into this game as these are two teams trending in opposite directions and I'm not referring to their location across Canada. The Habs have won seven straight and sit a top the Atlantic Division standings w/ 17 points. They have yet to drop a game in regulation. No other team can claim that. (Lone loss was 4-3 at Ottawa). Meanwhile, Vancouver has lost five in a row and despite a relatively "home heavy" schedule, they're currently sitting w/ only nine points. But the price is too high for me to get involved here, therefore we turn to the total where I feel Over is the way to go.

With Carey Price back between the pipes, the Canadiens figured to be an improved club this year and that is exactly how things have played out. In five games, Price has posted a superb .954 save percentage. But shocking is that backup Al Montoya has been equally as good (.955). Price is expected to go tonight and while that's clearly bad news for a Vancouver side that has been shutout twice in the L3 games, don't be surprised if they find the back of the net once or twice in this matchup. Montreal has given up a high number of shots per game overall (31.6) and especially here at home (33.2).

The Canucks goaltending has been lousy to this point. They were hit w/ five goals by Washington on Saturday, which is the last time they took the ice. It was the third time in five games that they allowed at least four goals. Montreal comes in ranked 4th in goals per game (3.4), so expect them to score early and often in this one. Note that the Over is 25-15 the L3 seasons in Vancouver road games when the total is 5. 10* Over Canucks/Canadiens

10* Washington (7:05 ET): It's been a relatively "light" schedule to this point for the Raptors and Wizards, both of whom are playoff hopefuls here in 2016. Actually, that moniker largely undersells what Toronto hopes to accomplish this season; they were in the Conference Finals a year ago and hope to at least make it back there. Then again, they have already failed their first test, that being a nationally televised home date vs. Cleveland. The result there was a 94-91 loss (they basically trailed wire to wire). Since then, they have bounced back w/ a three-point win over Denver. This will be the first road game for the Canadian contingent and ironically it's in our Nation's capital, a place the host Wizards have yet to play this season.

Washington is 0-2 SU/ATS having dropped road games to Atlanta and Memphis. This is a non-playoff team from last year that I have ascending into the top eight in the East. The Southeast Division is clearly wide open and someone must fill the void left by the disintegration of the Heat. With one of the best backcourts in the league (John Wall and Bradley Beal), I believe the Wiz will be that team. You would have hoped they would at least split the first two games, but oh well. Against Atlanta, it was actually a one-point game entering the 4th quarter before things fell apart. The final score against Memphis was also a bit misleading in that the game went to OT, only after Marc Gasol hit a three-pointer in the final seconds of regulation. That was a brutal situation as Gasol made 4 three-pointers in that game; which is one more than he made all of last season.

Last year, Toronto owned Washington head to head as they took all four matchups. Two were decided by three points or less, however. This being the Wizards' home opener and them being well rested is a significant advantage, I think. Over the L3 seasons, Toronto is just 31-46 ATS following a game where they scored 105+ points (They beat Denver 105-102). Opponents will NOT continue to shoot 47% from three-point range against Washington. I point to what Minnesota (a team that blew leads in its first two games) did last night as evidence the Wizards are in line for a strong performance tonight. 10* Washington

10* Utah (8:35 ET): This game sets up rather perfectly from where I sit. The demise of the Spurs has certainly been greatly exaggerated as Gregg Popovich's bunch is off to a 4-0 start - both SU and ATS. Most notably, they crushed Golden State on Opening Night, 129-100, and remember that was a road game! Since then, they've beaten three sub-par foes - Sacramento, New Orleans and Miami - all by comfortable margins. But what this run has done is greatly inflate the line for what projects as a tough, low-scoring matchup w/ the improved Jazz. Considering how the low the total is for this matchup, unless the Spurs turn in some sort of remarkable defensive effort, I don't see how they are able to cover this number. Take the points.

Utah is the chic pick in the Western Conference this year. While they did not make the playoffs last year (finished 40-42), they had a per game point differential (+1.2) that was better than four teams that qualified. (Only the heavyweights - GSW, SA, OKC and LAC - were better!). But, so far, this year has been a bit of a disappointment. They stand at only 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS following an embarrassing 88-75 loss to the Clippers on Sunday. Seeing that point total, I shouldn't have to tell you that it was a pretty horrendous shooting night for the team as they connected on only 39.7% of their FG attempts and the four starters other than George Hill combined to score only 20 points. Even facing a top tier foe like San Antonio, improvement is all but guaranteed tonight.

The Jazz definitely miss Gordon Hayward (out first 20 games), but there is still plenty of talent on hand here. Hill led the way w/ 18 pts Sunday afternoon and backup PG Dante Exum was also in double figures. The quartet of Boris Diaw, Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood and Joe Johnson combined to go a miserable 8 of 25 vs. LA and that will be improved upon here. Clearly, all the preseason praise led to an overvaluation in the market, but now the team is back to being properly rated, if not undervalued. They have had their struggles in the last few seasons in San Antonio, but this is the best they've brought here in a while. Again, taking the points in a game projected to be as low scoring as this one is typically a good idea, particularly if its a conference game. 10* Utah

10* Over Cubs/Indians (8:05 ET): Without a shadow of a doubt, Under has been the way to go in the MLB postseason, particularly when Cleveland has been involved. The Under is now 11-2 in all Tribe playoff games so far with the one of the two Overs coming in Game 1 of the LDS vs. Boston. The other was in Game 4 of this World Series when they scored seven runs, more than enough for Corey Kluber, who will get the nod if this thing goes seven. That all being said, I like the chances of seeing an Over come through tonight at Progressive Field. The wind is expected to be blowing out tonight in Cleveland and this park was a haven for Overs in the regular season (47-31-3). Plus, we have the return of the DH to both teams' lineups tonight. Take the Over.

In the regular season, Cleveland averaged the third highest number of runs per game at home in the league. Only park-aided Colorado and Boston (MLB's #1 offense) ranked higher). Even factoring in the playoffs, they still are averaging a healthy 5.4 rpg here for the entire year. Their lineup is back at "full strength" here and the pitcher will no longer have to come up to bat. Of course, they'll need a far better performance here than what they did against Jake Arrieta in Game 2. However, note that despite no-hitting the Indians for six innings, Arrieta was only in the strike zone a season-low 40 percent of the time in his last start! The Over is 12-3 in all of Arrieta's road starts this season!

Cleveland's depth-shy rotation sends Josh Tomlin to the mound for Game 6. He was one of the architects for the stunning Game 3 win (as +190 dogs on the ML!), but only lasted 4 2/3 IP. Yes, he gave up only two hits. But, for the second time in his career, he's being called upon to start on just three days' rest and the fact that his YTD ERA and WHIP are 4.36 and 1.216 WHIP should "count for something." We're likely to hear Joe Buck talk a lot about Kyle Schwarber in this game and this time rightly so as the Cubs' slugger will be back in the lineup in the DH role. Even though neither offense has hit well recently, I certainly think they are capable of combining to go Over this low number. 10* Over Cubs/Indians

8* Under Grizzlies/T'wolves (8:05 ET): This is an early season rematch from a 102-98 Memphis win (at home) last Wednesday. It was the fifth consecutive time these two teams have conspired to go Over the total against one another. However, you should note that last week's meeting went Over by the slimmest of margins as the total was 199. The oddsmakers' projection is basically the same for tonight's tilt and with the Over now having gone a combined 5-0 in these teams games this season, I say we're about "due" for an Under to come through.

Minnesota has been an early season disappointment. They're 0-2, but those losses have been by a combined seven points and both were on the road. This young team was projected for one of the biggest leaps in the standings this year and should compete for what will be a wide open race for the 8 seed in the Western Conference. I thought the projection of 40+ wins was a bit too high, personally, and am not surprised at the 0-2 start. Losing at Sacramento on Saturday had to be disappointing given they shot 51.4% from the floor. Even more concerning is that the team has led by at least 17 in both games. Free throw shooting has cost them as they're just 70% so far from the charity stripe. With Tom Thibodeau as the head coach, it stands to reason that the team's current 28th place ranking in defensive efficiency will improve moving forward.

Memphis has yet to shoot better than 45% in any game, yet they are averaging a healthy 106.0 PPG. What makes that discrepancy all the more shocking is they currently rank 28th in pace of play. By the way, do you know one of the two teams currenty playing slower than the Grizzlies? That would be Minnesota! (Utah is the other). Of course, it doesn't take much digging to understand the Grizz's offensive numbers. Last time out, they went to overtime and beat Washington 112-103. That game saw Marc Gasol make a career-high four three-pointers, which is more than he even attempted all of last season! One came w/ just 15.7 seconds remaining in regulation, forcing OT.  With two of the three slowest paced teams in the league facing off here, I smell an Under. 8* Under Grizzlies/T'wolves

8* Ball State (8:00 ET): Headed into Saturday, we still had nine unbeaten teams across the nation. Seven of the nine (Alabama & Western Michigan both off) found themselves playing on the road and four (WVU, Baylor, Nebraska, Boise State) lost outright. After having the weekend off, Western Michigan now tries to avoid that same fate as it travels to Muncie, IN to face Ball State. While the Cardinals are somewhat predictably 0-7 SU as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 pts the L3 seasons, they've managed to cover five of those games and not once this season have they lost by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here tonight. Of course, Western Michigan is easily the best team in the MAC, but the pressure is now on the Broncos as they play for the "Group of Five" spot in a New Year's Day Bowl Game. Take the points.

HC PJ Fleck has simply done a phenomenal job here in Kalamazoo. His first year here (2013)saw the team go just 1-11 SU, but they jumped up to eight wins the following year and then repeated that feat last season. This year, they're off to the 8-0 SU start and have two wins against Big 10 teams (Illinois, Northwestern). All four MAC wins have come by at least two touchdowns and like I said before; there's no denying that this is the best team this conference has to offer. But this is some heavy weight that the Broncos are laying here. This is more points than they laid against Akron, who is probably an inferior foe compared to BSU. Only once during Fleck's tenure here has WMU been asked to lay more points on the MAC road and that was LY against an Eastern Michigan squad that finished 1-11 SU. It seems like there's plenty of value on the home dog tonight.

Revenge is also a motivating factor here as certainly the Ball State players remember the way they were thrashed LY in Kalamazoo. The final score read 54-7 in favor of WMU, the largest margin of victory ever in this series. But this is a better Cardinals' team as they've already topped LY's three-win total and haven't dropped a game by more than 10 points. They did lose their last time out, outright here at home to Akron (25-35, -3.5), but are a perfect 3-0 ATS as dogs this season, including an outright win at Georgia State. This will be the first time they're getting points at home under 1st year HC Mike Neu, whose team has scored at least 20 points in all eight games this year. The offense has the MAC's leading rusher in RB James Gilbert (987 yds, 11 TDs) and this team is the third least penalized in the country! It was only a four point game in WMU's last visit here, two years ago. 8* Ball State