10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Coming into the year, the Suns were projected to be at the very bottom of the league and sure enough, there's already been plenty of turmoil in the first two weeks. HC Earl Watson was fired after the team started 0-3, prompting PG Eric Bledsoe to (now infamously) tweet "I don't want to be here anymore." Bledsoe told management that the tweet had nothing to do w/ the team, but rather him being at a hair salon w/ his girlfriend at the time! (Can't make this stuff up). That equivalent of "the dog ate my homework" didn't fool management, who immediately sent him home and it's now likely Bledsoe has played his last game w/ the team. We saw a positive response from those Bledsoe has left behind as Monday brought a 117-115 victory for the Suns (over the Kings). What the ongoing controversy has done here is create a little bit of value on this team. I'm taking the points tonight as they are facing a tired opponent. 

The opponent in question here is Utah, who started its season 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU). But the Jazz ran into the Clippers Tuesday night and were soundly beaten, 102-84 as five-point road underdogs. A lot of times, at least early in the season, we'll find teams that are undervalued in the second game of a back to back. That's not the case here though w/ Utah favored. The Jazz have not been able to top 100 pts since the season opener and the second of B2B road games isn't a likely spot for them to erase that trend. The current average of 95.8 PPG is second lowest in the league, ahead of only the Knicks. While some came into this year thinking the Jazz could still make the playoffs (8 seed?) despite an exodus of talent, I just don't see it as their division (Northwest) is tough w/ the other four teams all thinking playoffs as well. In addition to Gordon Hayward leaving for Boston, PG Dante Exum is out indefinitely and George Hill also missed last night's game and is listed as questionable for tonight. 

Give credit to the Suns for the way the played Monday. Yes, they may have won by only two points, but they came out clearly inspired after the coaching change and led by as many as 22 in the first quarter. We see this constantly in the NBA where teams tend to perform a bit better post-HC change as the players are motivated to either improve or maintain their current standing within the organization. Though 0-7 (SU) vs. Utah the previous two seasons, Phoenix has played them tough during this time, particularly last year when they covered all three games. None of the losses came by more than seven points and w/ Utah being both unrested and unable to blow the opposition out, they are prime fade material here. 10* Phoenix

10* Under Astros/Dodgers (8:05 ET): In my Game 1 analysis, I laid out how Houston appeared to be at a pretty severe disadvantage for the first two games (both here in LA) of this year's World Series. They came into the Fall Classic in a pretty major offensive slump as they hit a collective .187 in the ALCS and averaged only 2.9 runs per game. Dodger Stadium is one of, if not THE, unlikeliest of places for them to turn that around as this park ranked #1 in the regular season in visitor run suppression. Throw in the fact that Clayton Kershaw was pitching in the series opener for LA and I thought taking the home team was a "no-brainer" last night, especially when you factor in that the Astros lose the DH for these first two games. Sure enough, the game went "according to script" w/ the Dodgers prevailing by a final score of 3-1.

All the same disadvantages that existed for the Astros in Game 1 are present again here in Game 2. However, they don't have to face Kershaw, which should give them a "fighting shot." They'll also be sending Justin Verlander to the bump and he, their key midseason acquisition, has a 9-0 TSR his L9 outings. Verlanders' three postseason starts have been masterful w/ him turning in a 1.23 ERA and 0.909 WHIP. He's allowed just 3 ER in 22 IP w/ a 24-4 KW ratio. After going the distance (complete game) his 1st start against the Yankees in the ALCS, he shut them out for seven innings in Game 6. He's now allowed 2 ER or fewer in 11 consecutive outings and has a 1.08 ERA and 0.70 WHIP his L7! American League pitchers theoretically benefit from pitching in National League parks too, so I expect Verlander to continue his dominance here tonight. The only question is: will it be enough? Perhaps. When he was still w/ the Tigers, Verlander faced this Dodgers lineup back in August and held them to one run and two hits in eight innings of work. That was in Comerica Park where he didn't even get to face the pitcher.

The issue for the Astros, however, remains on the other side of the ledger. The Dodgers have been incredibly stingy this postseason, giving up an average of just 1.4 runs the L7 games w/ opponents hitting a collective .141. For the year, opponents have averaged just 3.5 rpg here at Chavez Ravine while hitting .225. Rich Hill gets the baseball in Game 2 for LA and he checks in w/ a 1.69 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in his L3 starts. Once again, there doesn't figure to be much scoring tonight. As we've seen all postseason, once you get to this Dodgers' bullpen, it's "lights out" for the opponent. That group can also prevent us from having to play the bottom of the ninth, always a key when playing the Under.  10* Under Astros/Dodgers

10* Over Sabres/Blue Jackets (8:05 ET): It was an ugly start to the season in Buffalo where the Sabres dropped seven of their first eight games. But they've since bounced back, at least a little bit, thanks to back to back victories against Boston and Detroit. This is considered a real "make or break" campaign for this team as while it's still a young group, there needs to be at least SOME improvement. As for Columbus, their season has basically been the opposite of tonight's opponent. They started out strong by winning five of their first six games, but the current homestand has gotten off to an 0-2 start w/ losses to the Lightning and Kings (two first place teams). Tonight, they're a massive favorite on the money line, which I'll be staying away from and instead looking at what I think is the best bet here, the Over. 

Buffalo won last night in Detroit, 1-0. Obviously, you can't get any lower scoring than that, so we're requiring a bit of a "leap of faith" for the Over to hit here. However, note that the Sabres' previous win came by a score of 5-4, in overtime over Boston. That game, also on the road, saw them put 42 shots on goal. They had 32 more last night, but could only beat Jimmy Howard once (which was enough). Fortunately, Robin Lehner made 32 saves himself for the Sabres. Unfortunately though, I'd expect Chad Johnson to get the start in goal tonight and his save percentage is a weak .881 thus far. One positive here is I do expect the Sabres' power play to get going. It has to, right? Six of the last seven games it has failed to notch a single goal, but in the one game it did, it was 3 for 5.

Columbus gave up six goals in its most recent game, so that's more hope for Buffalo here. The Blue Jackets did get shutout by the Lightning to open this homestand (2-0), but have scored at least four times in three of the last four games overall. HC John Tortorella is reportedly looking at "shaking up" his top two lines for tonight's game w/ Nick Foligno and Artemi Panarin swapping spots. Like Buffalo, we should start to see improvement on the power play here. Currently, the Jackets rank 29th w/ the man advantage, which is second worst in the league. But they scored a PP goal in the last game, their first since the season opener and I can't see this dry spell going on for much longer. Nor can I see the team continuing to rank 30th (dead last) in faceoffs won. The Blue Jackets are averaging a very healthy 36.6 shots per game for the year (39.7 at home!), so it's only a matter of time before they start breaking out offensively. 10* Over Sabres/Blue Jackets

8* Over Nuggets/Hornets (7:05 ET): The two teams involved here have, thus far, conspired to go a perfect 6-0 Under against the total. That's 3-0 each. Their respective points scored + allowed on a per game basis are remarkably similar w/ Denver games averaging 196.7 PPG and Charlotte's averaging 196.4. For the Nuggets, such low scoring affairs are a radical departure from what we saw last season when they were the top Over team in the league (50-31-1 all games) and nearly 223 total PPG were being scored. So something tells me that this string of low-scoring games is about to end soon. Sure enough, the previous two seasons have seen them go 6-3 Over when coming off three or more consecutive Unders. This game will go Over the total. 

Charlotte is a team that, before the season, I tabbed to be as improved as any in the league. Unfortunately though, they've yet to shoot the ball well in any game, particularly the two on the road. They lost up in Milwaukee Monday night, 103-94, shooting just 42.3% from the floor. The season opener, also on the road, saw them shoot below 40% in a 102-90 loss at Detroit. However, in their lone home game so far, they did score 109 in a win over the Atlanta Hawks. Home is where tonight's game is and I'll call for the best shooting night of the season for the Hornets. An issue this team has faced in the early going is lack of depth. Four key players were out for the Milwaukee game, yet the bench still outscored its Bucks' counterparts 42-30. Frank Kaminsky is averaging 14.3 PPG "off the pine" so far. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is expected back tonight after missing Monday due to the death of his grandmother.

Denver, like Charlotte in the East, expects to be a "player" in the Western Conference this season. Most believe this will be a playoff team and I've seen them pegged as high as fifth in the pecking order. But something else they share in common w/ Charlotte is a 1-2 start. That one win also came at home against a bad team, Sacramento, 96-79 on Saturday. They've since dropped a game to Washington (also at home) despite the best efforts of Nikola Jokic, who scored 29 pts in a losing effort. Also worth noting is that in their lone road game so far, the Nuggets did allow the opposition (Utah) to shoot better than 50% from the floor. Both of these up and coming teams are in line for an improved effort on the offensive end tonight and that's what I believe will lead to an Over cashing for the first time on each side. 8* Over Nuggets/Hornets

8* Chicago (10:05 ET): The expansion team in Vegas is shocking the world early on w/ a 6-1 start to the season. They've won their last three games, all here in "Sin City." But, as easy as it may be to get wrapped up in this "feel good" story, let's take a look at the Golden Knights schedule thus far. It's been quite favorable. The last five games have all taken place at home. They've played mostly non-playoff teams (from last year) including Arizona twice (the Coyotes are the league's only winless team). It's not like many teams have a better goal differential, but at +6, the Knights aren't exactly blowing teams out. Four of the six wins have been of the one goal variety. 

Now Chicago comes to town. They have the second best goal differential in the Western Conference at +10 (Only the Kings are better at +12). Admittedly, they've played nine games (two more than Vegas) and won the opener, 10-1 over Pittsburgh, which is largely responsible for that goal differential. But they still rank in the top seven in both the goals scored and allowed sides of the ledger. They also seem to have the edge in special teams in this matchup as they rank higher on the power play and penalty kill. Both teams are giving up more shots per game than you'd like to see ideally, but at 3.6 goals per game, the Blackhawks just seem better offensively. I'll take their goaltender Corey Crawford (.945 save percentage) over what Vegas has in between the pipes as well.

What Vegas has between the pipes is a big question mark right now. Marc-Andre Fleury is in concussion protocol and his backup Malcom Subban will now be out for at least a month w/ a lower-body injury. This leaves either Oscar Dansk or Maxime Lagace, a recent AHL call-up, as the only netminders. Both are obviously unproven. Three of the Golden Knights' victories have come in overtime. So let's not annoint this team anything special just yet. We know who the Blackhawks are, and that's the better team here. 8* Chicago

8* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): Big bets have reportedly been laid down on Dodger Blue for Game 1 of the Fall Classic and I'll be making one myself. That's in large part because Clayton Kershaw gets the starting nod of the series opener and the game is being played at Chavez Ravine. Kershaw, your likely NL Cy Young winner, comes in w/ a 26-4 TSR this season. He has a 2.43 ERA and 0.952 WHIP. That includes a 14-2 TSR at home where the Dodgers are 61-24 overall. Furthermore, LA has dominated American League foes this season, going 16-4 overall. Throw in the fact that the Astros have gone 0-5 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range and this seems like a slame dunk. 

The Dodgers are 7-1 in the postseason, losing only Game 4 of the NLCS. We all thought this team was vulnerable when they lost 16 of 17 games back in late August/early September, but it turns out that was just a minor "market correction" for a team that otherwise went 110-42 in all other games. Over the L6 games, they have allowed three runs or less every time. Getting the home field edge in this series is huge as Dodger Stadium is #1 in MLB for visitor run suppression at 3.3 runs per game. They have possibly the best pitcher in the game going tonight and remember that Houston did not swing the bats well in the ALCS, finishing that series w/ a .187 team batting average and average of 2.9 rpg.

Houston's hitting woes aren't likely to be rectified in the first two games of the World Series as they lose the DH from the lineup. Now they do have Dallas Keuchel starting tonight, but on the road his numbers do jump to a 3.77 ERA and 1.309 WHIP. Compare that to his home numnbers, which are 2.03 (ERA) and 0.937 (WHIP). The Dodgers, over the L7 games, have held opponents to a .157 team batting average and 2.0 runs per game. The Dodgers are also significantly better in 2017 when facing left-handed starters, going 37-15 in those games while outscoring the opposition by a full run per game.  8* LA Dodgers

8* New York (7:35 ET): I cashed a live dog last night (Memphis) and some of the same aspects from that selection are in play here. Boston was a team that made "My Most Overrated List" coming into the year. Yes, the team that finished #1 in the Eastern Conference LY added Kyrie Irving. But they also lost a lot in the offseason and I do not believe the team is better off here in 2017-18. I certainly don't buy them as being better than Cleveland, who they lost to on Opening Night. That loss was made even worse by the horrific injury suffered by Gordon Hayward, who is done for the year. The following night, the Celtics lost in Milwaukee. They did then win for the 1st time, beating Philadelphia (as a dog!) on Friday. But back to the role of favorite tonight, I have little interest in backing them here. 

Now, it figures to be a long year for the Knicks. They've started 0-2, losing to Oklahoma City and Detroit. The loss to the Pistons, at home, took place Saturday. So, like the Celtics, they're well rested here. Something odd that took place between these Atlantic Division rivals last year is the road team won outright in three of the four meetings.One positive I see for the Knicks this year is that the Carmelo Anthony drama is now over (traded him to OKC), opening the door for Kristaps Porzingis to lead the team. Porzingis has scored 30+ pts in both games so far. No Knick has done that to start a season since Patrick Ewing almost a quarter century ago. Also, note the Knicks jumped out to a 21-pt lead over Detroit Saturday night. Enes Kanter is another player to watch here as he has averaged 13.4 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in his career against Boston.

The Celtics have not shot the ball well so far (41.8% overall). Irving has really struggled the L2 games, going 14 for 42 overall including 3 of 12 from three-point range. Marcus Smart missed the Philly game w/ an ankle injury. While he is listed as probable to return here, we know Marcus Morris remains out. With only FOUR players back from LY's team, we knew there would be growing pains in Beantown. The Hayward injury has only exacerbated that and right now I want zero part of laying this many points with them. 8* New York

10* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The Eagles have made a case that they are the best team in the NFC having started 5-1 (SU) including a nice road win over Carolina last Thursday. The extra prep time here is significant, giving them an advantage they probably didn't need to overcome division rival Washington, a team they defeated back in Week 1, 30-17 on the road. I was on the Eagles there and it's certainly worth noting that they closed as two-point road favorites for that season opening contest. That makes the spread for this rematch certainly look too low given the change in venue. I'll gladly lay the points as Washington struggled to get by a winless San Francisco team last week. 

This is Washington's second Monday night game in three weeks. The last one, against the Chiefs, ended w/ one of the worst beats in recent memory as what was a tie game in the final minute ended up 29-20 when the Chiefs scored a garbage defensive touchdown in the final seconds. Needless to say, I don't want to rehash that anymore given I was on the Redskins. Philadelphia's only loss this year was to the Chiefs, back in Week 2. While Washington probably deserved better against KC, they were thoroughly outgained by the Eagles back in Week 1, 356-264 and turned the ball over four times.

  The Redskins are missing two key pieces on defense coming into this rematch, Jonathen Allen on the line and Josh Norman in the secondary. That could mean plenty of trouble against an Eagles offense that is averaging a very healthy 6.1 yards per play its last three games. Philadelphia is also getting back its best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson. Washington also had to sign a new kicker this week after Dustin Hopkins was placed on IR. The Redskins are 0-4 SU and ATS their last four appearances on Monday Night Football. 10* Philadelphia

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Houston is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) and most impressive of all is they won the last two games w/o the services of Chris Paul. That's after beating the Warriors on opening night. So this is a team certainly coming into Monday w/ a lot of confidence. But tonight they'll be hosting a team that also holds a win over the Warriors, 111-101 as 8.5-pt dogs, that being Memphis. The Grizzlies only have two games under their belt so far, both wins, as they opened w/ a double digit win over New Orleans. This is a team that I expected to regress a bit in 2017, but as an underdog (like they are here), there's probably some value. They've split eight games w/ the Rockets the last two years and I see tonight's Southwest Division matchup being a close one. Take the points.

Center Marc Gasol led the way against the Dubs w/ 34 points Saturday. Seven other players also scored in double figures. One of them, Mike Conley, only shot 3 of 14 from the floor. I'd certainly expect him to improve on the offensive end tonight. It was impressive that they held Golden State under 40 percent shooting and even more impressive that they led by as many as 19 points in the third quarter.

Houston is w/o Paul (knee) indefinitely and that's eventually got to catch up with them. While they did win big Saturday here at home over Dallas (107-91), their first two wins were both by five points or less. The oddsmakers set lofty expectations for this team (55.5 wins) and even w/ a healthy Paul, I didn't think they'd live up to them. Yes, the components of last year's team are still here - most notably James Harden - and the defense seems to be much improved. They beat Golden State thanks to a rare Warriors' fourth quarter cold streak and the other two wins were against Dallas and Sacramento, two of the very worst teams in the West. I just think this spread is too high.  10* Memphis

10* Over Sharks/Rangers (7:05 ET):  It has been a pretty ugly start to the season for the Rangers, a playoff team from a year ago. Their six points (2-5-2) are third fewest in the entire league right now. That second win came Saturday afternoon, 4-2, at home over Nashville. Prior to that, they'd dropped five in a row and given up at least three goals in every one of those losses. Tonight, they welcome in a San Jose team that gave up plenty of goals in its last game, which was a 5-3 to the Islanders. The Sharks also only have six points on the young year (3-4), but in the weaker Pacific Division, they're are actually two teams below them (including league-worst Arizona). I see this game finishing Over the total as both teams rank in the bottom half (of the league in goals allowed).

The Rangers didn't put many shots on goal Saturday (just 15 total!), but they connected on an extraordinarily high percentage of them. While they almost certainly won't be able to manage that shot percentage here tonight, they could also easily be doubling the overall number of shot attempts. Consider that the previous game (a 4-3 shutout loss to the Islanders), they had 41 shots on goal. In fact, the Rangers ranked right near the top of the league in shots per game prior to Saturday. Even after, they still are averaging a healthy 32.1. They've had 31 or more in seven of nine games. The L3 games have all gone Over the total. The team is 19-11 Over the L3 seasons following three consecutive games went they went Over the total.

The Rangers problem is that they are giving up 3.6 goals per game. San Jose does come in ranked in the bottom third in goals per game. However, they could break through here as Henrik Lundqvist is struggling w/ a lousy .907 save percentage for the season. At the same time, this is also their third road game in four nights (all out East), so defense could be an issue from their perspective at all. 10* Over Sharks/Rangers

8* Over Seahawks/Giants (4:25 ET): The Giants pulled one out of their collective (you know where!) last week, somehow beating the Broncos 23-10 as 13.5-pt underdogs. It had been a long time since we'd seen an underdog of that size win a game straight up in the NFL (several seasons), but it actually happened TWICE last week (also Miami over Atlanta). How the Giants did it was forcing three turnovers and Denver missing multiple field goals. That's how you pull an upset of that magnitude while still being outgained 412-266. Needless to say, it was as stunning a result as we'll probably see all season. Of course, as you know, the Giants entered that game winless (0-5) and were w/o their top FOUR wide receivers. Now they have to take on the famed "Legion of Boom!"

Seattle is off its bye week here. Prior to it, they recorded their own somewhat fortuitious victory, 16-10 over the Rams despite being outgained 375-241. Like the Giants last week, the turnover margin was a huge benefit to the Seahawks in that game as they took the ball away from the Rams FIVE times. While Russell Wilson and the Seahawks' offense has struggled at times this season (scored 16 pts or less three times), they also scored 73 pts in the other two games. The Giants' defense, which carried the team to the playoffs a season ago, has really fallen off a cliff here in 2017. They've allowed an average of over 400 yards per game the last three weeks, so I expect the Seahawks to move the ball and score in this one. The Giants' defense had given up 24 points or more each of its four games previous to last week. 

Eli Manning only dropped back to pass 19 times last week, which was probably for the best given the lack of weaponry at his disposal now. One positive here though is that WR Sterling Shepard may return in time for Sunday. The Giants also need to continue to run the ball as they've gone over 100 yards on the ground B2B weeks for the first time this season. Obviously, we have a low total to work with here, and as we've seen so many times before, all it takes sometimes is for a defensive score to cash in. With the often turnover-prone Manning facing the vaunted Seattle defense, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a 'pick-six' (or two!) in this game. 8* Over Seahawks/Giants

10* Over Bengals/Steelers (4:25 ET): Despite possessing what - at least on paper - looked to be one the strongest sets of skill position players in the league, Pittsburgh has seen the Under cash in all six of its games so far. It hasn't really hurt them per se, as they come into this divisional matchup w/ Cincinnati at 4-2 SU and in first place in the AFC North. Last week, they became the first team to beat the Chiefs this season, doing so on the road and in 19-13 fashion (held them to just 251 yards total). As for the Bengals, they're off bye. Prior to it, they won for me as a short home favorite, beating Buffalo 20-16. The Under is 4-1 in their games, but after infamously failing to score a TD in their first two home games, they've averaged a healthy 25 PPG over the last three weeks under new OC Bill Lazor. I feel there are enough "ingredients" in place here to send this game Over a low total.

The Steelers have averaged nearly 400 YPG over the L3 weeks. The matched a season-high w/ 26 pts in a beatdown of Baltimore in their last AFC North game. The following week saw them bit by the turnover bug (career-high 5 INT's from Roethlisberger) and they lost 30-9 at home to Jacksonville. But then came the big bounce back last week in Kansas City. Though they managed only 19 points, suffice to say it may have been the first game that the entire "Big 3" (Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown) all played well. Bell, who has gotten off to a slow start due to an offseason hold out, ran for 179 yards. Brown was his usual awesome self w/ eight catches for 155 yards. I believe it's only a matter of time before this offense regains "old form" and starts putting more points on the board.

I already mentioned the difference in Cincinnati's offense since the coordinator change. Not only have they averaged 25 PPG since Lazor took over playcalling duties, but they're also averaging 346.3 YPG. Now before we go complimenting either defense too much, be aware that both teams have faced a pretty weak slate of opposing offenses. Both have faced Cleveland, which is always a walk in the park. Both have also faced Baltimore. The Steelers got to face the Vikings w/ Case Keenum and the Bears w/ Mike Glennon. The run defense only ranks 23rd in the league currently (allowing 118.5 YPG). Historically, they've also struggled to defend Bengals WR AJ Green, who has four career 100+ yard days vs. the Steelers. Of course, the only WR in the league w/ more yardage receving this year would be Brown. Note that the totals for both meetings last year were significantly higher.  10* Over Bengals/Steelers

8* Under Panthers/Bears (1:00 ET): Carolina has to be itching to return to the field after losing what was billed as a battle of two NFC heavyweights last Thursday, at home, to Philadelphia. The extra time they get to prepare here should help, but they're on the road taking on a Bears team that is starting to find success at Soldier Field. Not only are the "Monsters of the Midway" 3-0 ATS at home this season w/ two outright upsets (nearly three!), but they're 7-2 ATS the last nine times taking points here. So I'm not about to lay points on the road. Instead, I'll look at the total, which is low but probably not low enough. We've got two surprisingly strong defenses and as I'm about to get into, the fact each team went Over (the total) last week is a tad bit misleading. I'm on the Under.

Chicago upset Baltimore last week, 27-24, as six-point road underdogs in overtime. The 24 pts they scored in regulation matched a season high. But that also comes w/ a caveat in that they scored on a 90-yard INT return. In fact, that game featured more non-offensive scores (3) than actual offensive TD's (2) as the Ravens scored both via special teams and defense (when was the last time you saw that?). So the Bears defense actually didn't give up a single touchdown in the win! This group is very underrated as they've held each of the last four opponents to 300 total yards or less. I'm hardly surprised that HC John Fox, who has a history of turning around defenses at every stop, has this one playing much better in 2017. As for the Bears offense, well, it remains a "work in progress." I know there's a sense of optimism surrounding rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky now starting, but the bottom line is the Bears' receivers are terrible and no QB, let alone a rookie, figures to thrive here. 

While Chicago is holding opponents to roughly 52 YPG below their season averages, Carolina has been even stingier, holding its opponents to 77 YPG below their season averages. That's a league-best number. I know that ace linebacker Luke Keuchly won't play here, but still, points should be hard to come by for both teams on Sunday. On offense, Carolina's run game has been terrible the past two weeks w/ running backs gaining just 32 yards on 33 carries (that is not a misprint!). Last week, their leading rusher was Cam Newton, who had 71 yards on 11 carries. That was a 10-10 game at halftime, but an early second half turnover by Newton, plus the loss of Keuchly really put the Panthers' defense behind the proverbial 8-ball. Fortunately here, they've had time to prepare to play w/o their star LB and they won't be facing the Eagles' offense, they'll be facing that of the Bears. 8* Under Panthers/Bears

8* Under Saints/Packers (1:00 ET): The last eight times the Saints and Packers have played, the Over has cashed. That streak actually dates back all the way to 1995. But there's a big caveat this time around and it has to do w/ who will be under center for Green Bay. Or rather who WON'T be. It won't be Aaron Rodgers (or even Brett Favre), instead it will be Brett Hundley as Rodgers is done for the year w/ a broken collarbone. Needless to say, this is a crippling injury - both literally and figuratively - for the Pack. Granted, he was thrown somewhat "into the fire" last week, but Hundley did not have much success w/ the offense scoring just 10 points under his direction and none after halftime. Green Bay's offense finished the game w/ just 227 yards total in a 23-10 loss. Right now, it's pretty difficult to be optimistic about the Packers.

One thing that may help GB here is the environment. We all know that, traditionally, the Saints' offense is never as prolific outdoors. Sunday's forecast at Lambeau calls for unfavorable conditions as well w/ a decent amount of wind and a good chance of rain. If the forecast holds, Drew Brees and company should stay relatively grounded. Even if the conditions are better than expected, I still don't envision a big offensive day from New Orleans as they've played only one "true" road game outdoors thus far. Ironically, it was their highest scoring game to date (34 points) before last week, but I still don't see that as a harbinger of things to come. 

Now the Saints are off a wild, 52-38 victory over the Lions at home last week. But while 90 total pts were scored in that game, there were a total of FOUR touchdowns scored by the two defenses. Three of them came from the Saints' side! That certainly isn't likely to repeat itself this week. Speaking of the Saints' defense, a funny thing happened in their last two games away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and that's they've allowed just 13 points total. There was the 34-13 win at Carolina, then they shut out the Dolphins in London. This group definitely seems to be improved (how could they not after the last couple years?) and I don't think they should have much trouble w/ Hundley, who doesn't have much of a run game to lean on (Pack averaging only 88 YPG rushing) and his starting center (Corey Linsely) is likely out as well! If Rodgers were playing here, I would forecast the Packers to win in a shootout, but he's not, so expect a lower-scoring type affair. 8* Under Saints/Panthers

8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Imagine this: Minnesota is playing w/o its starting QB, top RB (done for the year), top WR and possibly two starting offensive linemen, yet is favored prohibitively this week. That speaks volumes about the current state of the Ravens, who as noted last week, have the most players on injured reserve in the entire league. That caused me to play against Baltimore in Week 6 as they were laying a significant amt of points (at home) to a seemingly overmatched foe (Chicago). Sure enough, despite two non-offensive scores, they dropped the game outright (in overtime). Now though, the proverbial "shoe" is on the other foot. The Vikings stand to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Aaron Rodgers injury as not only were they the team facing the Packers last week (won 23-10), but they're in the same division and all of a sudden the NFC North doesn't look so tough.

It's funny that it was just one week ago that Minnesota appeared to be helpless, even at home, facing Rodgers and Green Bay. As noted above they were w/o their starting QB (Sam Bradford), RB (Dalvin Cook out for year) and top WR (Stefon Diggs). But, my, how things can change in an instant. Anthony Barr's (dirty?) hit on Rodgers broke the former MVP's collarbone and the Vikings would go on to pull the "upset" (were 3-pt home dogs), 23-10. The Pack were helpless w/o Rodgers, failing to score after halftime. For what it's worth, Minnesota only kicked three field goals (no TD's) in the second half. But they're feeling pretty good about the position that they are in at 4-2 straight up. This despite that Bradford, Cook and Diggs all being out again, plus there's a good chance that the left side of the O-line - guard Nick Easton and tackle Riley Reiff - will miss this game. Ask yourself, given the above information, does this sound like a team you'd want to lay points with? 

Baltimore has its own offensive issues right now, but there's a lot to like about the defense, especially since it looks like DT Brandon Williams is set to return. When the offense isn't turning the ball over and putting the defense in bad positions (like vs. Jacksonville), the Ravens typically don't give up many points. In each of the three wins, they've allowed 17 pts or fewer. I don't think they should be too scared by Vikings QB Case Keenum here. Remember that the first two games saw them force as many turnovers (10) as points allowed! Under John Harbaugh, this is a team that rarely gets blown out (I know they have twice this year) and they're a solid 2-1 ATS as underdogs this season. This figures to be a low-scoring game where you want to take the points. 8* Baltimore

8* Colorado (10:45 ET): It's "Pac 12 after dark" and neither of these teams come in playing as well as they'd hoped. Washington State is of course off a horrific 37-3 loss at Cal last Friday, a game which saw them turn the ball over SEVEN times and get dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten. Fact is, I was never really that high on Mike Leach's team anyway. Now the same could be said for Colorado coming into this year as I always viewed LY's run to the Conference Championship Game as a bit fraudulent. The Buffs were able to take advantage of a "down year" in the Pac 12 South and just about everyone had them regressing in 2017. Sure enough, seven games into the season and they've already equaled the number of regular season losses (3) from last year. They've even been a big disappointment at the betting window, covering just one time since a season-opening 17-3 win over in-state rival Colorado State. 

Disappointing as the season has been so far in Boulder, I see some pretty significant value here w/ the Buffs. As discussed in the analysis last week for plays against Michigan and Auburn, there always seems to be some value in targeting Top 25 teams off a SU loss as the majority of bettors are all too eager to call for the proverbial "bounce back." But in the case of Wazzu, I see not much reason to expect any kind of significant bounce back this week. While they did open the season 6-0 SU, that included close wins here in Pullman over Boise State (trailed by 21 in the fourth quarter and won in 3 OT's!) and USC (who was down three starting offensive lineman). The rest of the schedule has been quite soft to say the least and they got to play Oregon when the Ducks were really banged up. Last year in Boulder, the Cougars fell 38-24 to the Buffaloes as five-point underdogs. I know Colorado isn't as good this year, but I'm not sure I can get on board w/ the pretty massive swing we've seen w/ the line in less than 12 months time.

CU's last three games, two of them losses, have all been decided by four points or less. Yes, they did give up 33 points to an inspired Oregon State team (playing for interim HC) last week, but the defense still ranks fifth in the Pac 12 both against the pass and the run. Cal was able to hold Wazzu to just 365 total yards last week w/ an inferior defense. The only team to blow out Colorado thus far was Washington State's Apple Cup rival Washington, who is a much better team. It also should be noted that the Buffs have been favored in all but two of their games thus far, which partly explains some of the ATS struggles to this point. While they didn't cover at home against Washington, they did cover on the road vs. UCLA. Before last year, the visitor had taken four of the five previous meetings in this conference rivalry. CU is on a 9-4 ATS run as the road team while Wazzu is just 1-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts. 8* Colorado

10* Portland (8:35 ET): Coming into the year, there were seven teams that I considered "locks" for the playoffs in the Western Conference: Golden St (obviously), Houston, San Antonio, OKC, Minnesota, Denver and the Clippers. Maybe I should start thinking about making it eight and completing the field as Portland is 2-0 SU w/ a pair of double digit road wins. Now critics can point to who those wins came against, that being Phoenix and Indiana, two of the worst teams in the league. But still, blowing them out by a combined 66 points is quite impressive. Remember the Blazers were the 8-seed last year (lost in 1st round to GSW) and the 5th seed the year before that. I like their chances of making it a perfect 3-0 SU road trip to start the year, as they draw Milwaukee in an ideal spot. 

Both teams are in the second game of a back to back here. Portland won 114-96 in Indiana Friday while the Bucks lost 116-97 here at home to Cleveland. That Milwaukee loss is likely to have a carryover effect as Bucks fans are thinking their team can be the Cavs' top challenger in the East this season, but last night's game said otherwise. Watching that game, it was pretty clear to me that the Bucks are not a deep team and lean too heavily on Giannis Antetokounmpo. "The Greek Freak" accounted for over one-third of his team's points last night, shooting 15 of 22 from the floor. Everybody else combined to go a woeful 23 of 60 (38.3%). The Bucks are 6-14 ATS the previous two seasons when off a SU loss as a favorite. Their first game saw them be the beneficiary of the opponent (Boston) being off a demoralizing loss, ironically also to Cleveland. 

Portland opened its year w/ the biggest Opening Night blowout in league history, beating Phoenix by 48 points. Then last night, they again dominated from start to finish, building an 18-point lead after three quarters and then coasting from there. In order to complete the perfect road trip, the Blazers will have to reverse a bit of recent history as they've not won here in Milwaukee since 2013 and were swept in the season series last year. But the two games last year were only decided by a combined 11 pts. Neither time did Portland shoot well, although they actually blew a 58-51 halftime lead in the visit here to the Bradley Center. I believe they will reverse the recent trend and pick up a win. Take the points. 10* Portland

8* Baylor (8:00 ET): For most of the Big 12's existence, Baylor has been a bottom-feeder, not unlike Kansas. From the birth of the conference until 2007, they were an awful 11-85 SU vs. league opponents. But then came Art Briles and Robert Griffin III and from 2010-15, the program experienced virtually unprecedented success including FOUR 10+ win seasons. But that regime ended last year in utter disgrace due to a variety of severe misdeeds by players and coaches alike. Thus, Matt Rhule (came over from Temple) was stepping into a rather unfortunate situation, even though LY's team clearly underachieved. It's been even tougher than expected so far for Rhule as his Bears have yet to win a game and enter this week at 0-6 SU w/ just two covers to their credit. Only one time in conference play have they been able to stay within single digits of their opponent, ironically against Oklahoma.

But I believe the Bears have some fight left in them and will give #23 West Virginia all it can handle Saturday night in Waco. The Bears' three home losses have come by a total of 18 points. Yes, one of them was to Liberty, a FCS program. They also lost to UTSA, a game where they failed to score enough to even cover how much they were favored by (lost 17-10, were -11). But, as mentioned above, they did play Oklahome tough here, losing only 49-41 as 28-pt underdogs. I was impressed there by the fact they rallied back to take a second half lead after initially trailing 14-0 early in the game. Baylor is now a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog going back to 2011 and Rhule is 23-9 ATS all-time in his coaching career when priced as a dog w/ 11 outright victories. Watch the number as he's 11-3 ATS as a double-digit dog. 

Helping Baylor here is the fact that I absolutely hate this spot for WVU, laying points on the road. They are off a wild, come from behind win last week over Texas Tech in Morgantown. They fell behind by as many as 18 early in the second half before storming back to score the game's final 29 points! They were outgained by the Red Raiders, 513-396. Oklahoma State is on deck next week in a huge home game and the players may be looking ahead to that game. That same Oklahoma State team just whipped Baylor last week, 59-16, but I'm willing to foresake that result as the game was in Stillwater and the Pokes were off a bye (admittedly Baylor was too). Somewhat shockingly, the WVU offense only ran for 44 yards last week on a Texas Tech defense that no one will confuse w/ Alabama. Last year in Morgantown, with nothing to play for, Baylor easily covered the 17-spread, losing only 24-21 in a game they initially led 14-3. Since WVU joined the Big 12, the home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up in their meetings w/ Baylor. 8* Baylor

8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): Georgia Tech enters the week as one of only a handful of teams that has covered the spread in all of its games this season. They're 5-0 ATS to be exact, but in a pretty awful spot this week and thus I see them failing to cover for the first time. Last Saturday saw them suffer a tough 25-24 loss down in Miami, a game that was played two days later than was originally planned due to Hurricane Irma shuffling around "The U's" schedule. It was the Yellow Jackets' second one-point loss of the season, the other coming to Tennessee (doesn't that look bad now?) in the season opener. Now they must turn around and host rested Wake Forest, a team whose defense will certainly keep this one close. Take the points and do so quickly as the line continues to drop. 

Last week was certainly an advantageous spot for the Yellow Jackets, as they were coming off a bye while Miami was coming off an emotional last second win over rival Florida State. While they blew a 24-13 second half lead, note the Jackets were outgained pretty severely by the 'Canes, (481-281), so the final result was probably deserved. Now it is they (Ga Tech) who must deal with a rested opponent. The bye week is huge for the underdog Demon Deacons here as it allows for extra preparation for the Yellow Jackets' triple-option. Plus, bye or not, they probably already had the necessary defensive personnel to stop the Ga Tech offensive attack. The Deacons rank 16th nationally in rush defense EPA and while they haven't faced the Yellow Jackets since 2010 (really!), they have gone up against similar offenses in Tulane and Army the past several seasons and done well at stopping them.

Wake may be 1-2 SU in ACC play, but that's due to the fact they had to play Florida State and Clemson the L2 games. They played the Seminoles very tough in Winston-Salem, even outgaining them 367-270, and had a chance to send the game into overtime on the final play (lost 26-19). Against Clemson, it was back door cover (trailed 28-0), but I though the Deacons played the defending Nat'l Champs closer than the score suggested in Death Valley. Again, Dave Clawson's team has a Top 20 defense nationally in terms of efficency. As a road dog, Clawson has gone a pretty outstanding 9-3 ATS the L3 seasons including an outright win at B.C. (34-10!) back in Week 2. This truly is a wretched spot for Ga Tech, who is not only off its second one-point loss of the year, but also has a date at Clemson next week. Wake Forest will be ready to go and an outright upset is a strong possibility Saturday night in Atlanta. 8* Wake Forest

8* Mississippi (7:15 ET): LSU was a nice winner for me last Saturday, but let's not lose sight of the fact that they trailed Auburn 20-0 (at home) before storming back to take the game outright (as 7.5-pt dogs) 26-23. Or the fact they lost at home to Troy. Last week was the first cover for the Bayou Bengals (who wouldn't be denied w/ former HC Les Miles in the house) since the opener against BYU (who still hasn't covered a game this year!). In two "true" road games, they've won by one (17-16 over Florida) and gotten trounced by Mississippi State. I faded them in Starkville (Miss St) and am not about to endorse them as similar road chalk based off one come from behind victory. Take the points here. 

Like LSU, it was a rare cover for Ole Miss last week as they routed Vanderbilt 57-35 in Oxford. Depending on your result from the previous Saturday (against Auburn), it was either the first or second cover of the season for the Rebels. Regardless, it snapped a three-game losing streak (all on the road). There is no denying the talent on hand here, but the issue was going to be motivation after an ugly divorce from Hugh Freeze right before the season. The word "prostitutes" is never something school officials want to see next to their name! All jokes aside, last week may have seen the Rebels turn a corner. That was (supposedly) a very good Vandy defense that they shredded to the tune of 600 total yards and 57 points last week, led by QB Shea Patterson. The Rebels now actually lead the SEC in passing offense 357.2 YPG by a wide margin. That could spell trouble for an LSU defense that has not seen this amount of talent at the skill positions this season.

With four of their next five games here in Oxford (only road game at Kentucky), I can see Ole Miss going on a bit of a late season run. Granted, it wouldn't net them a bowl appearance (ineligible due to Freeze shenanigans), but it would still be a nice way to go out for the seniors who have stuck through and those looking to rebuild the program. Interim HC Matt Luke is still auditioning for a job. As for LSU, I hate this spot as they have a bye week on deck and then the showdown vs. #1 Alabama after that, so the players could be caught looking ahead. HC Ed Orgeron (former HC at Ole Miss) inserted his foot into his mouth earlier this week when he said this game didn't mean much “because the truth is the whole time I was there I was wishing I were here.” It's not like the home dog needed any more motivation after suffering a 38-21 loss (as seven-point dogs) in Baton Rouge last season. That marked the fifth consecutive time in this SEC West rivalry that the home team won, so again, I'm in no rush to lay points w/ the road team here, especially w/ LSU just 2-7 ATS its last nine "true" road games (2-5 as favorite). It's come full circle for them going from decided road favorite (Miss St) to decided home dog (Auburn) and now back again. Meanwhile, Ole Miss seems to be just now hitting its stride w/ Patterson completing 66% of his pass attempts.  8* Mississippi 

8* Under Kings/Blue Jackets (7:35 ET): Columbus has largely been feast or famine this season offensively, scoring five goals in three of their five victories while scoring one or fewer in both losses. Win or lose, it's more than likely to be more of the latter tonight as the host a Kings team that is #1 in the league in goals allowed and on the penalty kill. I've talked about it before, but LA seems a bit "under the radar" this season. That probably has to do w/ them missing the playoffs two of the previous three seasons, including last year, but they've raced out to a 5-0-1 start thanks in large part to having a healthy Jonathan Quick, something that was NOT the case at this point last year (injured first game). I expect a low-scoring battle between two good teams here. Take the Under.

The Blue Jackets were shut out their last game, by Tampa Bay no less, losing 2-0. It was a disheartening result to say the least, considering they outshot the Lightning by a 2:1 count (41-23). Putting shots on goal has NOT been an issue for this team in the early going as they've finished w/ 33 or more in all but one contest so far. Their average of 36.7 shots per game, believe it or not, only ranks fourth in the league right now. Pittsburgh led the league last year at 33.6, so for Columbus, the number will start to come down. Here is a good place for that to start as you must keep in mind the Kings' style of play, which usually leads to them - and not the opponent - dominating the puck. Sure enough, the Kings are giving up the fewest number of shot attempts per game in the league at 25.9.

The Kings are off a 5-1 win over Montreal, at home, which marked their highest scoring effort of the season. Save for the one loss, to Calgary in overtime back on 10.11, they've allowed two or fewer goals in every game! For what it's worth, the Under is on an 11-5 run for them the L3 seasons when coming in on a win streak of 3+ games. Quick has been outstanding this year, turning away 151 of the 159 shots he's faced, good for a .950 save percentage. Of course, Columbus has a former Vezina winner of their own in Sergei Bobrovsky, who comes in w/ a .946 save percentage. These two happen to rank 2nd and 4th respectively in that key category. A big problem for the Blue Jackets is that their power play ranks 29th (out of 31) and is 0 for its last 18. To reiterate, the Kings have the top PK in the league right now. Both meetings between these teams LY were 3-2 finals, the home team winning each time. The Under is a perfect 3-0 thus far in Blue Jackets' home games, if the total is 5.5. 8* Under Kings/Blue Jackets

10* Florida Atlantic (5:00 ET): At the start of the season, I said Lane Kiffin was stepping into a good situation here in Boca Raton as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Granted, things didn't start out all that well on the scoreboard, but that was to be expected w/ the first two games at Navy and Wisconsin, two teams that right now are a combined 11-1 straight up. Since then, however, the Owls have gone 3-1 w/ the lone loss coming by three points at Buffalo. I cashed them three weeks ago at home against Middle Tennessee where they were in a price range similar to the one here and they won 38-20. That was followed up by a 30-point road win at Old Dominion and then they were off last week, which allows them ample time to prepare for a North Texas team already off B2B upsets. I see the Kiffin renaissance continuing this week. Lay the short number. 

The last two weeks have seen North Texas upset both Southern Miss and UTSA. They were 7.5-pt dogs at Southern Miss, a game in which they won 43-28, so it could certainly be called an "impressive" victory even though the Mean Green initially trailed 14-0. But last week's 29-26 win over UTSA certainly deserved to be filed in the "improbable" folder. This time, they actually got off to a strong start (led 16-7 after one quarter), but were down 26-22 w/ just over one minute left in the game and 98 yards away from their end zone. What happened next was just incredible. The Mean Grean marched down the field in seven plays, the last of which was a 22-yard TD w/ just 10 seconds remaining. Needless to say, it was one of the most stunning wins of the entire College Football weekend.

Despite their 4-2 SU record, North Texas is hardly outscoring foes (4.5 PPG) while FAU - at 3-3 SU - is actually +8.4 PPG. Off a bye, the situation is ideal for the home team while I just don't see how the road dog can summon up the energy again after last week's improbable result. Before the win at Southern Miss, North Texas had lost its first two road games by a total of 39 points. This is a team that had just seven road wins total the previous six seasons, three of those coming in the 9-4 SU season in 2013. FAU is rested and ready to go here and armed w/ some revenge after losing both previous visits from the Mean Green (four straight losses to UNT overall). This offense is good as it has topped 30 pts in three consecutive games and averaging 430 YPG for the season. I feel this line is off by a touchdown. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Indiana (3:30 ET): Michigan State is 3-0 SU in Big 10 play, but all three wins have come by seven points or less. Now I know the Sparty faithful are going to be quick to point out last week's "backdoor" situation against Minnesota when they were up 30-13 in the 4Q, only to give up two late touchdowns and lose the cover (were four-point favorites on the road). But what about the week prior when they stunned Michigan (again!) at The Big House, winning 14-10 courtesy of a +5 turnover margin, which in turn nullified them gaining only 252 yards on offense? Meanwhile, Indiana covered for me last week (had them +7.5), but for the vast majority of bettors, they fell short (again) against Michigan, losing in overtime. An 0-3 ATS record vs. Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan is downright criminal considering how well IU played those teams (well, at least 2 of the 3) and it's about time they finish one of these games proper. This could very well be an upset, but I'll take the points.

Like many of the other top teams in the Big 10, Michigan State has been played tough by Indiana. But the Hoosiers have not beaten the Spartans in B2B seasons since '93-'94, which was the ONLY time they've done it since 1969! They'll be going for history Saturday as last year, they did pull the upset (in a similar price range), 24-21 in overtime (I was on them). At no point in that game was IU not covering. Their last visit to East Lansing resulted in a highly misleading final of 52-26 as it was only a two-point game in the 4Q before an insane confluence of events conspired against them. From '93 to '14, Indiana appeared in only one bowl game ('07), but now the program is on a better trajectory as they're looking to make it three straight postseasons. Holding onto the "Ol' Brass Spittoon" would be a nice trophy en route. 

Entering this game at 3-3 SU, Indiana might very well have to pull an upset as the majority of their remaining "winnable" games are on the road. Rutgers at home is probably a lock. So they probably have to split the four road games against Mich St, Maryland, Illinois and Purdue. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 5-1 SU, but could easily be 3-3 SU. It will be interesting to see how Mark Dantonio's young roster responds to being in the favorite role moving forward. Prior to last week, the Spartans had not scored more than 18 points in over a month, which obviously makes it difficult to like them as chalk, no matter how good the defense is. Indiana's offense (redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey now starting) will be the best that they've faced since Notre Dame (only loss) and their defense comes in a little underrated (seventh overall in Big 10, fourth against the pass). With three conference wins by a total of 14 pts and a suspect offense, Michigan State is prime fade material here. 8* Indiana

8* Texas (12:00 ET): The Tom Herman era in Austin started not w/ a bang, but rather a whimper as his Longhorns were stunned in the season opener, losing 51-41 to Maryland (trailed 30-14 at half, but finished w/ 26-18 edge in FD's). But it turns out that result was the exception and not the rule as the Longhorns have covered every game since! Now they're just 3-3 SU overall having also lost to USC and Oklahoma. But both of those games were close and could have gone either way against favored and highly ranked opponents. Oklahoma State obviously presents a challenge, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but Herman has the Texas defense playing at a high level and I think they'll be up for it. I'm taking the points and won't be surprised if it ends up as an outright upset!

Oklahoma State comes in ranked #1 in the country in total offense at 610.7 YPG and #2 in scoring at 48.8 points per game. Their top two receivers - James Washington and Marcell Ateman - have both posted four straight 100 yard games, becoming the first duo to do so since 1996! Last week, the Pokes whitewashed Baylor 59-16, which was not much of a surprise considering they were off a bye and the game was in Stillwater. Shockingly, OSU has won each of its last four trips into Austin, the longest such streak by any visitor in the HISTORY of Texas football! But the Longhorns' defense just fared pretty well against an Oklahoma offense which came into the game ranked ahead of OSU in total offense. They held the Sooners to just nine points after halftime in what was a failed come from behind attempt.

Coming into this season, I viewed these teams as likely to trend in opposite directions compared to 2016. Texas was a lock to improve under Herman following LY's disappointing 5-7 SU finish under Charlie Strong. There were 17 starters back, 10 on defense, and the team actually played much better than that 5-7 record indicates. They lost five games by a TD or less, three of them when favored. Also, they actually outgained Big 12 opponents despite a 3-6 conference record! Earlier, I mentioned that Texas has covered every game since the opener (5-0 ATS) and Herman is now 7-0 ATS his L7 times as a dog w/ five outright wins! The Longhorns led both USC and Oklahoma in the fourth quarter and it's about "high time" that they win one of these close ones. I know everyone loves this OK State offense, but they were held in check by a TCU defense (at home) that isn't as good as the one they'll face Saturday. It's easy when you can throw the ball all over the field against inferior opposition, but that will not be the case here. 8* Texas

10* Under Yankees/Astros (8:05 ET): The Yankees have done it yet again, rallying back from an 0-2 series hole by winning three straight. But unlike the LDS vs. Cleveland, this series is not over nor have they won a game on the road. The first two games here in Houston were both low-scoring affairs w/ the Astros winning 2-1 each time. Unfortunately for the Astros though, they have "picked" the worst possible time for their bats to go silent (more on that in a moment). While the series returning to Minute Maid Park seems like an advantage (road team has yet to win in this series), the Astros' offensive producton actually DECREASES at home! Thankfully for them, so too does the Yankees' on the road. We've got what looks like a strong starting pitching matchup on paper (Game 2 rematch), so I like the Under tonight. 

Of all the starters in the rotation, Justin Verlander certainly would seem to give Houston it's best chance of winning right now (and, no, I haven't forgotten about Dallas Keuchel). Verlander has an 8-0 TSR his L8 starts and went the distance in Game 2, allowing just one run on five hits w/ a 13-1 KW ratio. He has allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of those last eight starts w/ a 61-9 KW ratio and his ERA/WHIP are 1.29/0.735. That's the good news for the Astros here. The bad news is, and pardon the lazy headline, "Houston we have a problem" and that problem is the offense. They've scored all of nine runs in the series, four of them coming in one game (Game 4). This is a pretty stunning decline, given they ranked #1 in all key statistical categories during the regular season. As mentioned earlier, they actually average fewer runs per game at home (4.9) compared to the road (6.0). That difference of more than a full run per game is pretty significant.

The Yankees see their own offensive production dip from 5.6 at home (tops among American League teams) to 4.9 on the road. If i can levy one criticism against their offense, and I do believe it is a valid one, it's that they are entirely too reliant on the home run ball. They've struck out at least 11 times in 8 of 10 playoff games so far. As previously mentioned, all they managed was a pair of runs in the first two games here in Houston. Four times this postseason, they've been held to 1 or 0 runs. So it will likely be up to Luis Severino to keep them in this one. Severino gave up only one run and two hits in Game 2, starting opposite Verlander, though he did only last four innings. But I'm not really concerned with the fact he's failed to make it past the fourth in two of his three postseason starts due to the strength of the Yankees' bullpen. Severino does have better numbers this year on the road (2.24 ERA, 1.037 WHIP) compared to at home. 10* Under Yankees/Astros

10* Over Hawks/Hornets (7:05 ET): These two division rivals are expected to trend in very opposite directions in 2017-18. You don't have to dig very deep to understand why. Atlanta has dismantled its roster after years of mediocrity and early playoff exits. Believe it or not, the Hawks own the East's longest active playoff streak at 10 consecutive seasons, but that will almost assuredly end this year as oddsmakers aren't even forecasting them for 30 wins this year. Let's also throw in the fact that despite finishing 43-39 SU LY, the Hawks were actually outscored over the course of the season and benefited from an extremely fortunate 5-0 SU record in OT games. The Hornets were just the opposite as they went 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less (were 0-6 in OT!), thus nullifying the fact they actually outscored their opponents! Thus it should not be surprising to you that I have them right at the top of my "Most Improved" list for this season.

However, the script that I am writing for the respective seasons did not play out in each team's opener. Atlanta went to Dallas and won outright 117-111, shooting 51.1% from the floor, including 9 of 18 from three-point range. They were led by Dennis Schroeder's 28 points and also got a huge lift off the bench from Marco Belinelli, who scored 20. As for Charlotte, they suffered a rather ugly 102-90 defeat at the hands of Detroit Wednesday night. They shot only 39.7% from the floor, including 9 of 30 from three-point range. Take out Kemba Walker's 24 points and the shooting numbers begin to get really ugly. HC Steve Clifford has indicated that he may start tinkering w/ his starting lineup. I have no unearthly idea why Cody Zeller did not start the first game.

These division rivals have met eight times the previous two seasons. All eight games have stayed Under, which is quite the trend. Given how well Atlanta shot the ball in Dallas, you might be surprised to learn that I'm not projecting much decline tonight. That's because outside of Schroeder, none of the other four starters topped 10 points against the Mavs. Collectively, we're likely to get more production from that quartet tonight, which will counteract any decline from Schroeder and/or Belinelli. Charlotte is all but a lock to shoot better tonight (at home) compared to their season opener. Save for an ugly loss in Atlanta late in the year, the Hornets scored at least 100 pts in all other meetings w/ the Hawks last year. This isn't a very high total - at least by modern NBA standards - and I'm calling for the game to go Over. 10* Over Hawks/Hornets

8* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres are struggling - mightily - to start this season, but I think a visit from a Vancouver team caught in the second game of a back to back should cure what ails them. Buffalo's 1-4-2 start has included five road games, the last four of which all took place out West. While they finally got off the proverbial "schnide" at Anaheim, an OT loss at Vegas was certainly not the way they hoped to end the trip. Still, I was impressed w/ the way they rallied back from a 4-1 deficit in that game and they did outshoot the Golden Knights 34-31. The team has dropped both of its home games thus far, but like I said earlier Vancouver is not a good road team as their 12-26-3 mark last year was second worst in the entire league. The Canucks did begin this Eastern trek of theirs w/ a 3-0 shutout of Ottawa, but lost last night in Boston, 6-3.

Last night's game in Beantown was never really competitive as the Canucks fell behind 4-1 after one period, giving up the four goals in a seven minute span (three on the power play). It was the team's fourth loss in five games and they have yet to score more than three goals in any game this year (rank 26th in goals per game). This projected to be one of the worst teams in the league coming into the year and a big reason for that was the lack of firepower as LY they ranked 29th in goals per game. They lean far too heavily on the Sedin twins. Not to mention, they were also 24th in goals allowed last year. With this being the second game of a B2B, it's unclear who will be in goal - Jacob Markstrom or Anders Nilsson - as the latter was pulled early last night. Truth be told, neither is a particularly appetizing option as Markstrom has an .887 save percentage his L4 appearances.

It's very early in the season, but this one is almost a "must win" for the home team as it's a quick turnaround to play at Boston tomorrow night. It terms of the oddsmakers, this game marks the most prohibitive of a favorite the Sabres have been installed as to date. Defensively, they have struggled, but as discussed earlier, Vancouver is a weak offensive team. If the Sabres are unable to beat a bad, unrested team at home, the outlook could begin to get REALLY bleak in a hurry here in upstate New York. This is a franchise desperate for some modicum of success, so I believe they'll target this game as a "golden" opportunity to try and turn things around. Yes, it's a pretty high price range for a team that's dropped six of seven to open the year, but my own power rankings suggest that they should be even higher on the money line! Vancouver is a woeful 21-45 the L3 seasons coming off a non-conference game. 8* Buffalo

10* Over Marshall/Middle Tennessee (7:00 ET): Middle Tennessee enters the week as one of five FBS teams to be perfect either Over or Under. The Blue Raiders have yet to go Over the oddsmakers total in a single game this season (though there was a close call two wks ago vs. FIU), joining Houston (plays Thursday), Troy and Akron w/ that unique distinction (LA Monroe is the only team to have gone Over in every game this season). The reason for the Under trend is pretty clear and that's QB Brent Stockstill (son of HC Rick) has been injured most of the year. This was a team that averaged 39.7 points and over 500 yards a year ago, so needless to say, Stockstill's absence has had a profound impact on things down in Murfreesboro. But this week, we get the lowest O/U line to date and I say it's "high time" we get an Over.

Marshall is a team I was sure to put on my "Most Improved List" for 2017 (played them successfully in Week 1) and the Thundering Herd has not disappointed w/ their lone loss so far coming to a very good NC State team, on the road. That was Week 2 and they've won four straight (all by double digits) since. The last two weeks, facing Charlotte and Old Dominion (two poor teams), they've allowed only six points total and no touchdowns. Earlier in the year, the defense pitched a shutout against old MAC rival Kent State, so you can see why this total is so low. But at the same time, the Thundering Herd probably haven't faced anything resembling a coherent offense in over a month. MTSU still won't have Stockstill Friday, but they've at least scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even in defeat LW at UAB, they gained nearly 400 total yds.

That game LW vs. UAB was on pace to be a high scoring affair at halftime as UAB led 22-20. But from there, the teams would only manage to exchange field goals in the 2H. I really have no way of explaining that dropoff in scoring from the first to second half. As I mentioned earlier, the week prior was the Blue Raiders' highest scoring game of the year as they beat FIU 37-17 (depending on your closing total, you may have that one counted as an Over). That is one of three MTSU games this year that would have gone Over the O/U for this week. In fact, against FAU (lost 38-20) and Syracuse (won 30-23), we had O/U lines of 60 and 72.5 respectively! While Stockstill remains out, the good news is that WR Richie James is back (returned last week). James' absence for three games is also a major reason for the Blue Raiders' offensive decline in 2017. All James has done in his career is lead all active FBS receivers in receptions (239) while placing 2nd in yards (3224)! I'm confident that backup John Uruza will be able to get him the ball. Marshall's offense, led by QB Chase Litton, is averaging 26.5 PPG. Litton has thrown 13 TD passes and RB Davis is averaging 5.0 YPC. Expect this game to go Over the total. 10* Over Marshall/Middle Tennessee

8* Old Dominion (6:00 ET): Old Dominion has "accomplished" something that's hard to do and that's lost four straight games by 30 or more points. The scores have been 53-23 (North Carolina), 38-0 (Va Tech), 58-28 (Fla Atlantic) and last week, 35-3 (Marshall). Now we all expected (at least I did) some regression from the Monarchs this season considering they aren't as experienced and were unlikely to have the same turnover margin as last year (+13). But, remember, this team won TEN games in 2016. So, it's definitely "hard times" down in Norfolk and things get no easier this week w/ a visit from the presumed C-USA East favorite Western Kentucky. For ODU, this is a revenge shot from their lone league last year, which came by 35 points in Bowling Green. They were only 13-pt dogs on the road there, so you can see how perception has swung in a year's time. As ugly as ODU's recent performances have been, I'll take the points here. 

Up until last week, Western Kentucky had not covered a spread this season (favored in every game so far). But they rolled up over 600 yds total offense on Charlotte (one of the worst teams in the entire country) in a 45-14 win as 17.5-pt chalk. The schedule has not been challenging to this point as the Hilltoppers have faced only one opponent ranked higher than 100 in my own personal power rankings (LA Tech) and they lost to them, by one, at home. They also lost at Illinois, which you normally wouldn't penalize them for, but the Fighting Illini are the worst Power 5 team in the country, and the Hilltoppers were favored there. Despite the weak schedule, WKU is only outgaining its opponents by 30 YPG this season.

WKU has won all three meetings vs. ODU, most of them high-scoring. In fact, the lowest scoring Hilltopper effort of the three was 55 points! But the offense isn't as prolific this year w/ former HC Jeff Brohm having gone to Purdue. They're averaging only 25.5 PPG through six games and the two road games (Illinois, UTEP) have seem them scored just 22 TOTAL! Old Dominion is hardly an offensive juggernaut, but a front seven that was thought to be the strength of the team coming into the year, has underachieved drastically. Note that last week, the Monarchs trailed Marshall only 14-3 entering the fourth quarter. They are on an 8-3 SU in conference home games, including 4-0 last season. It hasn't helped that they've yet to win the turnover battle in any of their games this season. RB Ray Lawly will return to the Monarchs' lineup this week and that will surely help the offense. 8* Old Dominion

10* Oakland (8:25 ET): Coming into the year, this was certainly a game the Raiders had "circled" on their schedule. There were two deciding factors in the Chiefs winning the AFC West and not the Silver and Black last season, despite both finishing w/ identical 12-4 SU records. One was Raiders QB Derek Carr getting hurt before the final game. The second was Kansas City sweeping the season series. Overall, KC has now won five straight over Oakland and will be favored to make it six in a row Thursday night. As much as they were probably looking forward to this game, the Raiders will take a win over anybody right now as they've dropped four in a row, failing to cover the spread every time. So this game now has an even greater importance for them. The Chiefs are also off a loss here, their first of 2017, as they were beaten at home by Pittsburgh last week. I'm going to take the points here. 

Oakland came into this season on the short list of teams expected to challenge New England for AFC supremacy. I didn't buy it as this team was extraordinarily fortunate in 2016 by going 8-1 SU in one-score games and finishing tied (w/ the Chiefs!) for the league's best turnover differential. Also, their regular season point differential of +31 was the lowest EVER for a team finishing w/ 12 or more wins. But, circling back to this game, I would not have thought (coming into the year) that the Raiders would be a home dog in this spot. Part of it is the Chiefs' hot start and part of it is obviously their own four-game slide. But there is no denying this team is much better w/ Carr in the lineup and while he's missed only one game due to a back injury, his absence at least partly explains why the team is currently on a four-game losing streak. Note that the last time the Raiders lost four in a row (2014), they responded w/ a Thurs night home win over these Chiefs! 

KC hasn't lost many AFC West games since that Thursday night affair three years ago. In fact, they won 12 straight division games, going 9-3 ATS in the process. They entered last week almost universally hailed as the best team in the league, but as mentioned before, were beaten at home by the Steelers 19-13. They were pretty thoroughly dominated as well, getting outgained 439-251. The 28 yards rushing on only 15 carries was a real "eye-opener." This game may very well come down to turnovers. The Chiefs lead the league in TO margin the L3 seasons and haven't given the ball away since their first offensive play from scrimmage this season! Alex Smith has gone 202 attempts w/o throwing an INT. Meanwhile, the Raiders are just the third team in NFL history not to record a single INT in the first six games! Something has to give here, right? I know the success road teams are having this season (5-1 SU on Thurs nights too), but this is a desperate home dog playing for its season. Kansas City may be down two starting offensive linemen here. 10* Oakland

8* New York (8:05 ET): In an attempt to compete w/ the historically great Warriors, OKC has elected to join the "super team" fad, adding both Paul George and Carmelo Anthony in the offseason. Alongside Russell Westbrook, that triumverate will be among the most talented "Big 3" any team has outside of Oakland. But the negative of that is you're going to see inflated lines such as this one. Thus, there will often be value in FADING the Thunder, especially early on when all the new pieces are learning to gel. The Knicks being the opponent in tonight's season opener works two ways. Yes, no one is expecting anything from the Knicks this year. But because of that the line is even more inflated than I thought it would be and I'll gladly grab a double digit spread in Game 1.

The Knicks have been a complete disaster even before Phil Jackson was foolish handed the keys to the organization. They are coming off B2B 50+ loss seasons and bordering on being irrelevant. However, with Anthony now gone, maybe they can now perhaps concentrate on moving forward? It was a winless preseason, but that hardly matters. Kristaps Porzingis was the Knicks' best player last year and w/ Anthony gone, he has an even better chance of individual success due to losing a ball-dominant teammate. The Anthony trade netted Enes Kanter, who is another good player. Again, I'm not so crazy to think NY can win this game outright, but the points are plentiful, particularly for a first game. 

For OKC, I like the George addition, but Anthony and Westbrook playing together will certainly be interesting. Both are ball dominant players and "this just in" ... there's only one ball. Westbrook carried the Thunder to 47 wins last season, so I do understand the projection of 54.5 for this season. But not sure they'll quite get there. It's a tough Northwest Division that they play in, plus I have them ranked as only the fourth best team in the West, behind Golden State, Houston and San Antonio. Depth is still a bit of a concern. The team had a (ever so slightly) negative efficiency rating last year (allowed more points per 100 possessions than they scored) and ranked only 17th offensively despite all of Westbrook's individual accolades. Going from one player (Westbrook) "carrying the load" to sharing the burden w/ two other former All-Stars is going to be a transition for the mercurial Westbrook and I just do not expect the Thunder to be a "well oiled machine" this early in the season. Anthony may try and "press" (to the detriment of the team) given that he's facing his former team here. 8* New York

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The World Series Champs stayed alive last night w/ a 3-2 win in Game 4, thus snapping a six-game losing streak to the Dodgers and handing LA its first loss this postseason. But most will feel it was just "delaying the inevitable" as tonight finds Dodger Blue a decided favorite w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound. However, this isn't Chavez Ravine and this isn't the regular season, meaning the NL's likely Cy Young winner could be had here. Neither of Kershaw's playoff starts thus far have been quality, which is the continuation of a somewhat disturbing trend that has seen him pitch decidedly subpar come playoff time (throughout his career). Since rejoining the rotation in September (missed all of August due to injury), Kershaw has been mediocre at best w/ a 4.38 ERA and 1.333 WHIP his last seven starts.

The Cubs' offense has not shown much in this series as all seven runs have come off six home runs (one was a 2-run shot). They are batting just .172 in the playoffs. That's not good. But what is good news is the fact the Kershaw has been susceptible to the long ball of late. He allowed FOUR solo home runs in his LDS start vs. Arizona and has given up at least one HR in seven consecutive outings. Opposing hitters are batting an incredible .538 on Kershaw's first pitch and four of those hits have been HR's. So, I expect the Cubs' hitters to be aggressive in this game. The "added insurance" that the RL provides is another nice luxury. Remember that the Cubs did beat Kershaw right here in Wrigley in Game 6 of LY's NLCS, which allowed them to advance to the World Series. 

Pitching for the Cubs tonight will be Jose Quintana, a lefty like Kershaw, who has been his team's most profitable starter in 2017. He lost opposite Kershaw in Game 1, but before that the team had won his previous seven starts. He still sports a 2.30 ERA and 0.884 WHIP his L7 starts, better numbers than Kershaw over that same span. Consider he was a +165 ML dog for that Game 1 matchup, so there seems to be some value here for the rematch at home. The Cubs caught some bad breaks in Games 2 and 3 and really weren't dominated to the degree that it's been made out to be. I absolutely can see them winning this game and forcing the series to go back to LA. But the safer call is to say they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5)

8* Houston (8:00 ET): Houston is still "picking up the pieces" from an embarrassing 45-17 loss at Tulsa on Saturday (were 14-pt favorites). I was on the Golden Hurricane in that game, and while I believed an outright upset was a distinct possibility, that final score took even me aback. It was a close game most of the way (total yardage virtually even) and UH even led 10-7 at the half! But Tulsa was not to be denied in the second half, scoring on each of its six drives! Two turnovers, one a fumble that was returned for a TD very late in the game, made the final score far more lopsided than it "should" have been. Of course, one of the reasons I played against the Cougs there is I thought they might be looking ahead to this game, an AAC West showdown w/ #25 Memphis.

Memphis comes in as one of THREE AAC teams currently ranked in the top 25 (UCF, USF). However, they are the "dreaded" ranked underdog against an unranked foe here. The Tigers come in averaging just over 40 PPG and can claim victories over UCLA and Navy. Their only loss was a rescheduled affair at UCF when they were blown out on the road, 40-13. Their only other road game so far came the following week at hideous UConn. So that's something to make a note of. I figured this team would compete for the AAC West crown as they came into the year as the most experienced group in the entire conference. However, they've been a little bit fortunate w/ three wins by eight points or less, two of them by a field goal (UCLA, Navy), Last week's win over the Midshipmen was greatly aided by forcing FIVE turnovers. The final one (an INT) preserved the 30-27 victory as Navy was driving for the potential game-tying (or winning) score. Given they forced five turnovers, you would think the Tigers would have won by a more comfortable margin. Bad news for them here is the fact they are 3-9 ATS when off B2B SU wins and 3-10 ATS when facing an opponent that has a winning record.

This is a big revenge spot for UH as they lost last year up in the Liberty Bowl, 48-44 as six-point favorites. They actually trailed by 17 at halftime before storming back and taking their first lead (37-34) w/ just over seven minutes left. The teams then exchanged touchdowns, again leaving the Cougars up three, this time w/ just 89 seconds remaining. But, they then gave up a 5-play, 72-yard drive, which ended in a touchdown for Memphis w/ just 19 seconds left. The previous year, Houston had to pull off a 20-point comeback here at home just to win 35-34 as five-point favorites (both teams were ranked). I don't see Major Applewhite's team falling into such a big hole this time around. Take away sack yardage and the Memphis defense is currently surrendering 242 yards per game on the ground. That ranks 114th nationally and every FBS opponent has gained at least 150 (over land) against them. So Houston should be able to move the ball effectively here (plus Memphis just had to dismiss a DL due to rape charges) and a Thursday night home game w/ revenge is motivation enough to put them over the top (UH is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS L5 Thursday games) 8* Houston

full analysis soon

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): It appears as if the "demise" of the Blackhawks has been greatly exaggerated. Coming into the season, questions were being raised about whether or not the "aging" core of this team was getting too old to compete at a high level. So much for that line of thinking. Through six games, they have the best goal differential in the league (+12) and are on top of the Central Division. St. Louis started fast, by winning their first four games, but a trip through Florida quickly put a halt to that. The Blues fell in both Florida and Tampa Bay, managing only three goals in the process. I feel as if the wrong team is favored on the money line here.

Both sides are certainly well-rested coming into this important early season divisional matchup. Neither has played since Saturday. That's when the Blues lost to the Lightning (2-1) and the Blackhawks beat the Preds by the same score. So far, Chicago is top three in both goals scored and allowed. They aren't even getting much help from a power play which ranks 23rd and should start to improve now that Nick Schmaltz is set to return. Even though it required OT, beating the Preds was huge for Chicago after being swept by them in LY's playoffs. Doing it in low-scoring fashion was also a good sign as they won a game in which they'd been shutout until late in the third period. Goalie Corey Crawford has been outstanding in the early going w/ a .960 save percentage and while that figures to go down, so too does the number of shot attempts he'll face. 

St. Louis has played only one home game thus far, which makes their strong start all the more impressive. But they've played only one Western Conference team to this point and are being outshot on a per game basis. In fact, their lone home game thus far - a 4-2 win over Dallas - saw them get outshot on nearly a 2:1 basis (40-21). Goaltender Jake Allen has already twice allowed 4+ goals in a game this season. Meanwhile, Chicago has allowed exactly one goal in all four of its victories. The Blues are only 18th in goals scored and 10th in goals allowed. To me, they're a pretty mediocre team. With two more games coming up out West after this one, I'm not sure the rest will be of much benefit, especially if Alexander Steen remains out. 10* Chicago

8* Washington (7:05 ET): Philadelphia, believe it or not, was the top ATS team in the league a year ago as they finished 49-33 at the betting window. That and all the young talent they've accumulated during this rebuilding process have them as a VERY trendy playoff pick for this season, which would be quite the remarkable achievement given they have not won more than 30 games any of the previous four campaigns. To me, their ceiling is the 8-seed, which only speaks to the lack of depth in the Eastern Conference. One of them teams that will assuredly finish above them is LY's Southeast Division Champs, the Wizards, who went 49-33 in the regular season before bowing out to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Wiz did lose outright twice to Philly last year, but both of those games were on the road. Here at home, they beat them by 16 pts.

With Cleveland and Boston both radically remaking their respective rosters and Toronto seemingly past its peak, Wizards' fans are thinking this is the year the can finish closer to the top of the East. The core of the team that won 49 games a year ago is all back, led by the outstanding starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. If I do have one concern w/ this group, it's the bench. Markieff Morris (sports hernia surgery) will be out the first month of the season. But I don't think that hurts them here. This team went 30-11 SU at home a year ago by scoring 110.3 points per game. Defense was not a strong suit for the young Sixers last season (110.3 PPG ALLOWED on the road where they went 11-30 SU) and I don't think it will be this season either.

The Sixers have won just 56 games the past three seasons w/ half of those coming in 2016-17. They do add the last two #1 overall draft choices to their lineup - Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz - with the former having missed all of LY due to injury. Expectations should be tempered in the early going for Fultz as he'll be coming off the bench. Speaking of injury, Joel Embiid will again be on a minutes restriction and is already battling an ankle injury. The plan for tonight is to play him only 16 minutes. When I look at the Sixers, I see a team that is being overvalued in the marketplace based on potential and not results. They will NOT match LY's ATS record and I don't see Opening Night going well for them against a proven commodity. The fact that they're the dreaded "public dog" in this game only confirms my suspicion. 8* Washington

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): I'm a bit surprised that - in some circles - the Magic are being discussed as a potential playoff darkhorse (for the 8-seed only). But that only speaks to the current state of the Eastern Conference. There certainly does seem like a logical argument for them to finish in the top eight as there are only seven teams likely to finish w/ winning records and this will be the first time in a LONG time the Magic aren't projected to be a last place team. (That dubious distinction belongs to Atlanta this season). I don't think they'll make it, mind you, but for tonight's season opener, there is plenty of value to be had w/ them as a home dog to rival Miami. The Magic have actually played the Heat tough the L2 seasons, splitting eight games, including taking three of four last year. Take the points here.

Miami is one of the seven teams you have to think will make the playoffs in the East. Last year, they finished tied for the 8th spot (at 41-41) and had the 5th best point differential in the conference at +1.1 PPG. But they lost a tiebreaker to the Bulls and did not make the "tournament." This is now a "new era" on South Beach as Dwyane Wade joined his buddy LeBron James in Cleveland. The issue last season was that the Heat dug themselves too big of an early season hole. They did beat Orlando on Opening Night, 108-96 (as a three-point road dog), but would proceed to drop 30 of the next 40 games. Even a 13-game SU/ATS win streak that took place right before the All-Star Break was for naught. 

Looking at the actual matchup, Orlando has to be better defensively than they were a year ago. Defense was HC Frank Vogel's calling card in Indiana, so I do expect them to improve on that end of the floor. This was the league's worst ATS team a year ago, odd because it's not as if they're favored much. But I look for a far better performance at the pay window this year. I find it interesting that despite being a better team this year, they've gone from a three-point home favorite to a three-point home dog against the same opponent in consecutive season openers. Thanks to that 13-game win streak, Miami finished near the top of the league's ATS standings, but if you take that one run out, they were basically an average team at the betting window and very subpar overall. They were a road favorite only seven times in 2016-17. Look for the Magic to surprise here. 10* Orlando

8* Run Line NY Yankees (5:00 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Yankees at +1.5. Could the Bronx Bombers possibly pull off the same "trick" twice in row? It sure looks like it. For the second consecutive series, the Yanks have rallied back from an 0-2 hole to tie things up. But whereas that put them in position to "only" have to take a winner take all contest in Cleveland in the LDS, here it's down to best two out of three vs. Houston. For the record, New York did finish w/ a better regular season run differential than the Astros (+198 to +196) and despite losing 7 of 11 head to head matchups to them this season, it's been the team wearing pinstripes that actually has the edge in runs scored (57-52). Game 5 features a rematch of Game 1's starting pitching battle between Keuchel and Tanaka. While the former came out on top the first go-around, the latter is better suited for success in his own park this time.

The Astros' offense (#1 in MLB during the reg season) has gone curiously quiet in this series, scoring just nine runs in four games. Last night's loss dropped them to 0-6 this season when priced as a road dog of +125 to +175. Thus, a matchup w/ the red-hot Masahiro Tanaka seems ill-timed right now. Tanaka has turned in three consecutive quality starts, two of them here in the postseason. During that time, he's allowed just two runs on 10 hits in 20 IP. He has a 25-2 KW rate. Houston was baseball's road team in the regular season, but w/ the way they're (not) hitting right now, I'm not sure if that's relevant to the discussion at hand. Even though four of their nine runs scored in the series came yday, they were -9 in total bases (15 to 6) and have yet to win a game by more than one run in this ALCS. Tanaka has a sterling 0.980 WHIP at home this season (and an 11-5 TSR). 

Keuchel was dominant in Game 1 of this series, but that was also at Minute Maid Park where he sports a 2.03 ERA and 0.937 WHIP. On the road, both his ERA & WHIP jump considerably. Both of his playoff starts so far have come at home and the last time he started on the road against a non-division opponent was 8.8! I find it interesting that Keuchel's TSR outside of the AL West is only 7-5 this year. He did win here at Yankee Stadium back in May, giving up only an unearned run in 6 IP, but it was of the one-run variety and that's a result we can take tonight. Given the way "momentum" has shifted in this series, getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with seems like a real "steal." 8* Run Line NY Yankees (+1.5)

10* Buffalo (10:05 ET): Let's tip our collective "caps" to the job done by the expansion team in Vegas so far. The Golden Knights are 4-1 and near the top of the Pacific Division, ahead of such preseason favorites as Anaheim and Edmonton. There's also the situation going on in the community in the aftermath of the tragic shooting that took place a few weeks ago. But I don't think anyone expects this fast start to last, as after all, this is an expansion team. Tonight, they are at home (for a fourth straight game) hosting a Buffalo team that has underachieved in the early part of the season. But after picking up their 1st win (in Anaheim) on Sunday, I expect the Sabres to finish off this road trip w/ two more points at the Golden Knight's expense.

Sooner or later, the Sabres have to make a leap up the Atlantic Division pecking order. It's a relatively wide open division and adding "insult to injury" is that Toronto is making that leap right now. Like the Maple Leafs, the Sabres are a team that has struggled for years, but has gotten an infusion of young talent. Unlike the Leafs though, that young talent has yet to take shape here. But the 3-1 win in Anaheim was perhaps a nice start. Goalie Chad Johnson stopped 25 shots and the penalty kill was a perfect 4 for 4. Helping "explain" the Sabres' poor start is the fact they've allowed FIVE short-handed goals, a league-high, thus far. That can't happen and fortunately isn't likely to continue. Jack Eichel is of course a solid foundation here to build around. 

There could be an issue for Vegas in goal here as Marc-Andre Fleury is still battling concussion issues and thus could miss this game. P.K. Subban started in his place Sunday vs. Boston and performed admirably, stopping 21 of 22 shots. But considering he has just three career starts under his belt, I'm not sure he can be counted on a regular basis. Even if Fleury does go here, he only posted a .867 save percentage in his first two home starts (ugly!) and was the one who gave up six goals in the team's only loss so far (to Detroit). The bottom line is I just don't expect the Golden Knights to continue winning at the current rate, while the Sabres should get better. That's reflected in the ML here, which I happen to think isn't nearly high enough. 10* Buffalo

full analysis soon

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Batten down the hatches here as we have a rematch of LY's Eastern Conference Finals w/ Kyrie Irving having "switched sides" from Cleveland to Boston. Needless to say, emotions will be running high at the Quicken Loans Arena Tuesday night. My play on the Cavs does come w/ a rather giant caveat, that being if LeBron James doesn't suit up, the play is off. So, please, be sure to pay attention to the news throughout the day and as soon as I hear something definitive, I'll try and provide an update. But assuming King James does play, then I feel the emotion of opening the season at home against a hated rival will carry his team to the SU win and cover. Lay the short number (again, provided James plays). 

It's not just Irving, but Boston has a LOT of new faces this year. It's quite rare to see a team that finished #1 in its conference totally remake its roster, but that's precisely what GM Danny Ainge did here. He shipped his best player (Isaiah Thomas) to Cleveland in order to get Irving. That deal also saw the Celtics have to part ways w/ Jae Crowder, a key interior presence and defender. It's now the Cavs that will benefit from his services. Ainge also signed Gordon Hayward, off a career-year in Utah (21.9 PPG), to a big deal. Having a lot of "shiny" new pieces always seems fun on paper, but don't be surprised if the Celtics underachieve in 2017-18. I say that knowing full well that LY's team ranked only 3rd in net efficiency in the East, behind Cleveland and Toronto. Last year's group was built to overachieve. To me, this year's group will be just the opposite. They have just FOUR returning players from 2016-17. They're going to miss Avery Bradley for sure. Certainly, I don't see this team matching LY's league-best 29-18-2 ATS record on the road. 

Cleveland also has a lot of new faces. In addition to getting Thomas and Crowder in the Irving trade, they signed Dwyane Wade (LeBron's best buddy) and Derrick Rose. Both those players are probably "over the hill" and won't mean much to the pointspread, but at least Wade will keep James happy. The starting lineup will also be different w/ both Tristan Thompson and JR Smith relegated to bench roles. Neither may be happy about it, but the team is better served this way. (Wade, likely at James' behest, took over Smith's starting role at SG). Kevin Love now plays center, meaning it's a smaller lineup, but that's when the Cavs are at their best. They shredded Boston in LY's ECF to the tune of 120.4 PPG. Again, provided LeBron plays, I'm "all in" on the Cavaliers here. For the record, J.R. Smith is on record as saying James is "gonna go." 8* Cleveland

6* Ottawa (7:35 ET): The Senators have not only yet to drop a game in regulation this year, but they also own the Eastern Conference's best goal differential at +10. They just swept a three-game trek through the Western provinces, the first time they've done that in franchise history! It was a dominant two-game performance in Alberta as they outscored Edmonton and Calgary by a combined 12-1 margin (won 6-1 and 6-0 respectively). But the trip also started w/ a 3-2 win (shootout) in Vancouver. Now it's time to take care of business against the Canucks at home. That game in Vancouver saw the Sens hold a decided edge in shots (42-28), something that was the case for them in each of the first four games. Not only leading the league in goals allowed per game (1.6), Ottawa is also #1 in penalty killing (100%!). They should dominate this lesser foe on home ice.

Vancouver came into the season projected to be one of the worst teams in the entire league. They did pull a big surprise on Opening Night, upsetting Edmonton 3-2, but that was at home as have been each of the team's first four contests. The Canucks were a dreadful team on the road last year (12-26-3) w/ only the league-worst Avs able to claim a worse record. It is a virtual lock that they will finish either in last or second to last in the Pacific this year (should be a "battle" w/ Arizona). In addition to losing to them at home last week, the Canucks were also swept by the Senators last season, failing to score a single goal in either game. Given how stingy Ottawa has been in the early going this season, it figures to again be a struggle for the Canucks to find the back of the net tonight.

The Sens opened the season w/ B2B home games (against Washington & Detroit). Like the win at Vancouver, both went to shootouts. But the difference was they lost the two at home. Call it the "just due" factor, but I can't see them opening the season by losing their first three home games. Especially now that Erik Karlsson, the two-time Norris Trophy winner, is set to finally hit the ice for the 1st time this season. The fact Ottawa performed as well as they did w/o Karlsson is pretty remarkable as his head coach (Guy Boucher) went so far as to call him "the best player in the world." Vancouver's power play is only 2 for 23 this year, so it figured to struggle anyway in this game. Consider that in Saturday's 5-2 loss to the Flames, they had five 1st period PP chances and not only came up empty, but were actually outscored 1-0 even though one of those PP's was 5 on 3!  Compared to the Sens, the Canucks aren't nearly as healthy w/ defenseman Alex Edler and winger Lou Eriksson both out here. 6* Ottawa

10* Tennessee (8:25 ET): This AFC South has been incredibly one-sided dating back to when Peyton Manning still played for the Colts. The Titans have lost 11 in a row to Indy, the last win coming back in 2011, which was the year before the Colts drafted Andrew Luck (Manning injured). Going back further, Tennessee is just 1-16 SU the last 17 meetings! They are only 2-9 ATS during the 11-game losing streak. But, 2017 just "feels" like the time for the Titans to start turning this division rivalry around. As we know, it won't be Manning or Luck under center Monday night for the Colts, rather it will be Jacoby Brissett. As for Tennessee, they thankfully get Marcus Mariota back after basically a two-game absence (inj early in Houston game) that went very poorly for the team to say the least. While both teams come in at 2-3 SU, the Titans' scoring differential is much better and that's with the 57-14 loss to the Texans two weeks ago! Lay the points. 

The Colts went out and acquired Brissett immediately after a disastrous 46-9 loss to the Rams in Week 1. He's led them to a 2-2 SU record, but let's put that record in its proper perspective. The wins came against Cleveland and San Francisco, who are a combined 0-12 SU and both came by just a field goal (49ers win required OT) at home. So this team is a lot closer to being winless than they are a viable contender in the division. They're being outgained by a NFL-worst 95.4 yards per game w/ their two previous road games being absolutely atrocious as they were outscored by a combined 92-27. The offensive line struggles to protect Brissett (sacked 14x) and the defense just isn't very good. Really, we're learning just how valuable Andrew Luck has been to this team the last few years as this is a really poor roster overall. 

Tennessee came into this season thinking playoffs, but the Mariota injury has really dampened things. Remember though, with him in the lineup, this team did whip an improved Jacksonville team on the road and beat the Seahawks here at home. Note that if Mariota is unable to go, this play still stands as you'll be able to get a significantly better number. The Titans' defense allowed only 178 yards last week (yet the team still lost!) and I don't see them giving up much here to a Brissett-led offense. The last two games w/ Mariota in at QB, the Titans topped 30 pts both times. This game is a really huge deal for Tennessee as it's not only a rare MNF appearance, but also a very opportune time to snap their long losing streak against a hated divisional foe. 10* Tennessee

8* Run Line Houston (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Astros at +1.5. Even at "juiced up" odds, the RL feels like a "safe" value here w/ what is - clearly - the better of the two teams. I say that with all the respect in the world for what the Yankees have done this year as they actually underachieved in the regular season (had 2nd best run differential) and rallied back from a similar 0-2 deficit in the LDS against Cleveland. But, to me, the Astros just seem better in all facets of the game. Behind Dallas Keuchel, they dominated Game 1 (even though the final score was only 2-1) and then won Game 2 by the same score in walkoff fashion. Off B2B one-run wins, Houston will do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Take the +1.5.

Houston is now 7-2 this year vs. the Yankees this season, although the number of runs scored are basically even at 47-43 (Houston's favor). Tonight is obviously a "must win" for the team wearing pinstripes, but as we all know, that doesn't mean they "will" win. Returning to the Bronx would normally be a big advantage for the Yankees as they happen to own baseball's best home run differential at +1.8 rpg. But, unfortunately for them, Houston happens to own the best road run differential in the sport and it's not even close at +1.4 rpg. (only one other team, Cleveland, was above 1.0). The Astros offense even averages more rpg on the road (6.1) than the Yankees do here at home (5.8). As has been been given much attention, the Yankees are striking out A LOT this postseason, including 27x already in this series. Rookie phenom Aaron Judge continues to be the biggest offender w/ 19 in 31 AB's! Meanwhile, Houston's top hitter (the likely MVP Jose Altuve) is batting .565 so far in the postseason. 

CC Sabathia pitched pretty well in both of his LDS starts, but he also can't go deep into games anymore. Just once since the All-Star Break has he made it past the sixth. His 9-0 KW rate in Game 5 vs. Cleveland was tremendous, but it's something that I don't feel is repeatable, especially here against MLB's top lineup. Remember Houston finished the reg season ranked #1 in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. Sabathia should feel fortunate to have a 10-3 TSR this year at Yankee Stadium as his ERA/WHIP are 4.20/1.227. The Astros counter w/ Charlie Morton, who may share Sabathia's penchant for abbreviated starts, but he also has a 3.11 ERA his L7 starts, never once allowing more than 3 ER in any start during that span. Sorry Yankees fans, I just don't see any significant edge your team has over the Astros that would justify taking them in this spot. 8* Run Line Houston (+1.5)

10* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): The Red Wings finished in last place in the Atlantic Division last season (79 points) and really, it could have been a lot uglier if not for an almost unfathomable 9-0 record in shootouts! But coming off their first non-playoff season in a quarter century, you had to figure they'd improve some and they've started out 4-1 w/ three of the wins coming on the road. But it's not exactly been the most daunting schedule thus far as the last three opponents were all non-playoff teams from a year ago and that included visits to Arizona and Vegas. Though they've had the last two days off, I think their could be a residual effect coming off that long road trip (which took them from Ottawa to Dallas to the desert) and it's a significant step up in class tonight.

Tampa Bay is also 4-1, though most of their games have been at home. That being said, they already own victories against Washington, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Saturday's win over the Blues might have been the first time this high-scoring outfit failed to reach four goals in a game this year, but beating a team that had started 4-0 is nice any way you can get it. Remember that the Lightning are also due for a bounce back up in the Atlantic Division standings after they failed to make the playoffs last season. But that was due to injury as opposed to lack of talent. I would not be surprised - at all - to see the Lightning win the division this year. Meanwhile, the Red Wings would be lucky to even make the playoffs. TB has dominated Detroit the previous two seasons, winning 11 of 14 matchups.

Nikita Kucherov is the player to watch right now for the Lightning as he's scored in all five games. No player has started a season like that since the Sharks' Patrick Marleau five years ago. Andrei Vasilevskiy is firmly entrenched as the starting goalie here (started all five games) and has a solid .911 save percentage. As for Detroit, they've bounced back between Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek. The latter isn't very good and as for the former, I just don't think he'll be able to maintain his current .955 save percentage for much longer. It's interesting that BOTH teams are giving up plenty of shots in the early going. A wide-open game would certainly favor the Lightning, in my estimation. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Cubs +1.5. I laid off Game 1, in part, because the defending World Series Champs were facing Clayton Kershaw on the road. However, that turned out to NOT be the problem. Albert Almora, Jr hit a 2-run HR off Kershaw, giving the Cubs an early, but temporary, 2-0 lead. The Dodgers would then tie the game in the bottom of the fifth and subsequently take a 3-2 lead after six. The game then swung in the seventh where a controversial call at home plate (Catcher Contreras called for blocking) opened the door for two more Dodgers' runs. The Cubs are now 0-4 here in Chavez Ravine this season, but I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss here. Take the +1.5.

With some question over the state of the bullpen, Chicago needs a quality start here from Jon Lester. Fortunately, that's exactly what they got from him in the LDS, though they would go on to lose that game to the Nats, 6-3. But don't pin that on Lester as he allowed just one run on two hits in six innings of work. He did work Game 4 of the LDS as well, throwing 51 pitches, which means he's working here on only three days' rest. But his L3 starts have all been superb as he's given up just 2 ER (both on solo HR's!) in 17 IP. He's allowed all of 11 hits during that span as well. In last year's NLCS, Lester posted a 2-0 team start record against the Dodgers, a series that the Cubs won in six games. Remember, it's VERY rare for the Cubs to be ML underdogs. Yesterday marked just the 25th time (in 167 games) that it happened all season! So there's value to be had here.

The Dodgers turn to Rich Hill, who was waiting in the wings LY to pitch a Game 7 that never happened. That's because the Cubs beat Kershaw in Game 6 and advanced to the World Series. Hill has pitched well at home most of the season, not surprising seeing as Dodgers Stadium is #1 for visitor run suppression this season. But in his LDS start, he lasted only four innings. Sure he gave up only two runs on three hits, but three walks and a home run allowed were among the concerning things I saw there. Hill did not face the Cubs in the regular season. After that somewhat rocky finish to the regular season, the Dodgers have yet to lose here in the playoffs (won 6 in a row overall). But despite their home dominance in the regular season, they are just 13-11 as a ML favorite of -125 to -175. That's the range they find themselves tonight and in a game that qualifies as a "toss-up" to me, I'm grabbing the added insurance that the run line provides. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs

10* Arizona (4:05 ET): The David Johnson-less Cardinals have been a disappointment so far (yet to win a game in regulation!), particularly at the betting window where they are 0-5 ATS (league's only winless team ATS). But here they draw a Tampa Bay team that I was never as high on as everyone else seemed to be, and are getting points to boot, at home. Last week's 34-7 loss to Philadelphia was undoubtedly ugly, but it was also on the road against a very good team. Tampa Bay came into 2017 overrated, at least in my opinion, as they were outscored (-15 pt diff) despite a 9-7 SU record and were a league-high +6 in net upsets (were only favored three times all season!). This year, the burden of expectations may have caught them as they're only 1-3 at the pay window. I'm taking the points here and expect Arizona to win. 

Even this year, at only 2-2 SU, the Bucs seem to be overachieving. They're being outgained by 22 yards per game. Looking at their two wins, one was a turnover-fueled situation against Chicago and the other came on a last second FG against the winless Giants. The defense made Case Keenum look like a viable NFL starter back in Week 2, allowing him to complete 25 of 33 pass attempts in a 34-17 loss to the Vikings. Last week, despite a season-high in total yardage, I was disappointed (but not surprised) that the offense managed only 14 pts against a New England defense that had really been struggling. Yes, I know the kicking game was a MAJOR issue in that Thursday night affair, but that's nothing new and special teams are a legit concern here. There were also six drives of four plays or less for the Bucs' offense. The Bucs' defense is far from healthy right now as four starters are less than 100 percent. 

Arizona is outgaining its foes by 15 YPG and thus due for better results, especially considering they actually LED THE LEAGUE in YPG differential last year (+61.6). In fact, that 7-8-1 SU record from 2016 could qualify as totally misleading seeing as the Cards also outscored opponents by 56 points, which was more than all but SIX teams in the entire league! Now, it's pretty apparant that QB Carson Palmer is at "14:59" of his career and ultimately, the Adrian Peterson trade won't mean much. But I'm staunchly of the opinion that the Cardinals are better than their results over the L21 games while TB isn't as good as it's been made out to be. The Arizona offensive line is also getting healthy, which is key. This team isn't a home dog often and presents a pretty substantial value play here considering they crushed the Bucs LY, 40-7, on this field. 10* Arizona

8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET): This is a really interesting matchup between surprisingly good teams. When I started to handicap it, I figured I'd come out leaning towards the Rams as they outgained Seattle in a close loss last week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's 30-9 win over Pittsburgh may not have been as impressive as it looked considering basically three plays decided that game, two of them being pick six's that went their way (Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 INT's overall). However, when I ran my power rankings, it turns out that Jacksonville is actually being underpriced here. They lead the NFL in point differential (stunning!) and should be closer to a touchdown favorite, in my opinion. Don't discount the impact playing Seattle still has on a team the following week. Lay the short number. 

Most will call Jacksonville's 3-2 start "surprising" and while I'm inclined to agree, prior to the season starting, the majority of metrics did indicated that there would be improvement here. For starters, the turnover battle was "due" to start going their way. In 16 games LY, they produced only 13 takeaways and had a TO margin of -16 (2nd worst). In just five games so far this year, they've already forced 15 TO's (scored 74 pts off them) and lead the league in differential! Funny how that works! The Jags former HC, Gus Bradley, never could put together a winning season here. But he did leave behind a defense that was poised to be excellent and that's come to fruition as they're allowing just 16.6 PPG and three times have held the opponent to nine points or less! Sure, they've yet to string together B2B victories. But this is also only the second time they've been favored. They've overachieved in the early going, which will serve them well moving forward as they look to take a very winnable AFC South.

The Rams' defense was thought to be a strength coming into the year, but instead it has been the offense as this team looks totally different under HC Sean McVay compared to the odious Jeff Fisher. They scored 35 pts or more in three of the first four games before getting held to only 10 in LW's home loss to the Seahawks. I faded them in that spot LW as I just didn't think they were worthy favorites against the team that has been the class of their division for the last five years. I still think the Rams are getting a bit too much "residual" credit from that 46-9 beatdown of the Colts back in Week 1. While you could say the same for the Jags and their 37-point win (44-7) over the Ravens, the fact is that in the other four games, Jacksonville has outscored its opponents while the Rams have not. The Jags are the better team here (especially on defense, which is a surprise) and should be getting more credit here for playing at home. The Rams could be looking ahead to next week's trip to London (teams just 12-25-1 ATS in that spot). 8* Jacksonville

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): You'll get no argument from me that the Browns are a bad football team. Since Hue Jackson took over (before last season), they are now a mind-numbing 1-20 straight up. Perhaps equally as embarrassing is their 5-16 ATS mark. (So much for the pointspread being the "great equalizer!"). They are one of three winless teams (49ers, Giants) entering Week 6 where they are (not surprisingly) getting big points on the road. But you may be shocked to learn that despite a -44 point differential, the Browns are outgaining foes this year on a per game basis and are basically even in yards per play! Therefore, I'm going to "roll the dice" here as yet another QB (Kevin Hogan) tries to jumpstart this moribund franchise. Houston is a team I was NOT high on entering the year and they just lost JJ Watt for the season. Take the points in what has the potential to be a stunning upset Sunday.

Last week's loss to the Jets was horrific even by Browns' standards. At home, they outgained the Flyboys by a nearly 2:1 margin, yet still came up three points short on the scoreboard (17-14). Making that final score all the more painful is the fact that THREE times Cleveland had the ball inside the Jets' 10-yard line and came away w/ ZERO points! Watching the game, I felt the blame lied at the feet of HC Jackson and not rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who was not put into the most ideal situations. That said, I think the move to start Hogan here is the correct one as Kizer clearly is NOT ready for the NFL level yet, particularly with such a lack of weapons around him. Hogan won't be bringing back the "glory days" in Cleveland, but he's more mobile than you think and directed both of the team's TD drives last week. 

The Texans were able to rank near the top of the league in yards allowed LY despite being w/o Watt most of the way. But expecting them to do so again seems foolish. Also, that side of the ball has been further negatively impacted by the loss of Whitney Mercilus. So that's the top two defensive players that the Texans will be without. Even though they lost last week (at home to Kansas City), I feel this is a unique situation where a team is overvalued after a LOSS. That was a national TV game against the Chiefs and QB DeShaun Watson continued to look good. But consider that w/ one exception - a ridiculous 57-14 win over Tennessee two weeks ago - the Texans have not produced a single double-digit victory the last two years! It is Cleveland that surprisingly comes into this game w/ the better defensive numbers as they rank in the Top 5, giving up just 304.8 YPG. 8* Cleveland

8* New Orleans (1:00 ET): Bye weeks started last week, thus four teams come into Week 6 w/ some early season rest. All four play at home and three of them are being asked to lay double-digits. Interestingly, the one that is NOT is New Orleans, a team typically known for a strong homefield advantage at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. Now it's been a "high level of mediocrity" in the Big Easy these last several seasons (three straight 7-9 SU finishes), which is what happens when you consistently field a top five offense, but also a bottom five defense. This season saw the Saints start 0-2 w/ losses to the Vikings and Patriots (underdogs in both games). But "true to form," they bounced back w/ B2B wins before the bye, beating Carolina and Miami by a combined 54-13 margin.

Coming into the year, I felt "regression" was the operative word for a Lions team that somewhat fraudulently made the playoffs a season ago. They didn't beat a single playoff team en route to LY's 9-7 SU regular season record, which required an NFL-high EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks. The Lions were actually outscored over the course of last year, even before getting blown out by Seattle in the Wild Card Game. So when I saw this team sitting at 3-1 SU going into last week, I just had to fade them. Sure enough, they lost 27-24 to Carolina and the game wasn't really that close as they were outgained by 120 yards and trailed by as many as 17 at home. As I projected, close games have started to go AGAINST the Lions. They also lost to Atlanta, 30-26, after being stopped at the goal line on the final play. (It should also be pointed out that they were outgained pretty severely by the Falcons & only in the game due to a +3 turnover margin). 

A strange thing has keyed the Saints resurgence the L2 games and that's their defense has actually played well! In addition to allowing just 13 pts in the pair of victories, they've given up an average of only 237 yards per game! Yes, playing Miami (in London) certainly helped, but note Detroit is averaging only 288 YPG offensively. It's also worth pointing out that the Saints whipped the Panthers in Carolina while Detroit lost to them at home. QB Matt Stafford is not 100% right now either. There's even more significant attrition on the defensive side of the ball w/ Haloti Ngata possibly done for the year. As for New Orleans, theybye obviously allows them to come in healthy as LT Terron Armstead is set to make his 2017 debut after offseason shoulder surgery as will WR Willie Snead (suspended first four games). Dumping Adrian Peterson before he became a distraction was a wise move. The Lions' defense allowed a very high completion percentage LY and that seems problematic against Drew Brees, who is averaging almost a full yard more per attempt compared to his counterpart Stafford. 8* New Orleans

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): The Bears have not won a road game since 2015. They share that ignominious distinction w/ only the Browns. But we're in the "Mitchell Trubisky era" now. The rookie signal-caller made his pro debut last week (Monday night) and while his play was "so-so" (at best), there's no denying the team at least played hard. In fact, they led most of the way against Minnesota, only ceding the lead late after a bad Trubisky interception. This week brings what looks to be a greater challenge, at Baltimore, but the Ravens are banged up team right now and a money-burning 0-5 ATS their last five times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This looks like your classic overlay as I don't think Chicago is as bad as the oddsmakers seem to. Take the points.

Partly responsible for this line is the fact Baltimore went into Oakland last week and came away w/ a fairly convincing 30-17 (were three-point dogs). However, that was not a Raiders team at full strength as they were without QB Derek Carr. Furthermore, the Silver and Black are overrated to begin with. Let's also not forget what happened to the Ravens the previous two weeks; they were beaten down by both Jacksonville (in London) and Pittsburgh (at home), getting outscored 70-16. You may be surprised to learn that this team is -40.2 YPG compared to their opponents. Also remember that they benefited from TEN turnovers in their first two wins, one of which was against the Browns. Earlier I mentioned that the Ravens are "banged up" right now. Really, that's putting things mildly as they have a NFL-high 16 players currently on IR! The most significant of those injuries are all along the offensive line where the team is already down to its third different right tackle!

Chicago may be -9.2 in point per game differential, but they're roughly even in total yardage, only being outgained by just over five yards per game. Even w/ four games of Mike Glennon, the Bears' offense is averaging more YPG than is the Ravens. Even though they lost both games, they outgained both the Packers and Vikings the L2 wks, a positive sign if you're Chicago. While Baltimore benefited from forcing 10 TO's in pair of wins, the Bears have suffered two losses where they gave away the ball eight times. These teams are a little more even than you think (remember Chicago upset Pittsburgh!) and the Bears are a perfect 8-0 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the total is 42 pts or less. Bottom line is that in a game where I don't expect a ton of scoring, taking points is the way to go. 8* Chicago

10* Over Sabres/Kings (10:35 ET): Buffalo has had a tough start to the season as they're 0-3-1 SU and given up 18 goals in the process. Twice, they've been touched up for six (goals), definitely not a good sign, especially when one of the teams that did it was New Jersey (worst offensive team in the league last year). Things don't figure to get on track here in the City of Angels where they've dropped 11 of 13 visits. The Kings are well rested (off L2 days) and looking to bounce back from a disappointing 4-3 home loss to Calgary on Wednesday. They'd started 2-0 and as I said in my analysis for Weds' game, it seems as if LA is floating "under the radar" this season. The Sabres are desperate, so I'll shy away from the money line here, but I do like the game to finish Over the total.

Puck possession is typicall the Kings' forte, although in two home games thus far, they've given up an average of 36.0 shots. It was a wild game on Wednesday w/ them picking up a point in a 4-3 overtime loss to the division rival Flames. That game saw the Kings not only put 45 shots on goal, but also allow 37. Those are high numbers compared to what we've seen from this team through the years. Also, all but one of the seven goals scored in that game came at even strength while the respective power plays combined to go just 1 for 11. So, really, there could have and probably should have been even more scoring. The Kings have really struggled thus far when on the man advantage, which is putting it mildly, as they're 0 for 16 to start the season. They're one of only four teams in the league to still be w/o a PP goal. Bottom line is I expect that to change sooner rather than later.

Kings' goalie Jonathan Quick has dominated the Sabres in his career, posting a 1.22 GAA (his lowest against any opponent) and in the last three meetings has stopped 70 of 71 shots. But that goals against average should come w/ a minor caveat, that being he's only faced them six times. For the majority of the time, Buffalo has been terrible. An 0-3-1 start to this season might not sway you, but the Sabres SHOULD improve moving forward, at least at the offensive end where there's plenty of talent on hand here (Jack Eichel). However, winning will continue to be a problem if they continue to lead the league in short-handed goals allowed (4). Neither goaltending option here is particularly tasty and tonight it's expected to be Robin Lehner, who in two road starts has a .833 save percentage. It's not like Chad Johnson (.816 save percentage) is any better. 10* Over Sabres/Kings

8* USC (8:00 ET): This is one of those rare instances where the public is likely going to be backing the underdog. After all, at worst, Utah has gone 4-0-1 ATS for bettors (5-0 for some), depending on your line for LW's tilt vs. Stanford where the Utes lost 23-30. Meanwhile, USC is a disappointing 1-5 ATS, ironically the lone cover coming against Stanford. But the pointspread is more than justified here, at least in my opinion, as Utah was a fraudulent 4-0 going into last week and nowhere near worthy of Top 25 status. USC, despite losing at Washington State (when down three offensive lineman), remains one of the most talented teams in the entire country. This is a revenge spot for the Men of Troy as they lost LY in Salt Lake after blowing a double-digit 4Q lead. 

Prior to the game at Wazzu, Southern Cal had not lost since last year in Salt Lake. Even in defeat, I thought they outplayed the Utes LY and I'm not just saying that because I had them. They outgained them, but were -2 in turnovers. It was a Friday night game and both of Utah's final two touchdowns came on long drives, the final one going 93 yards and ending w/ just 16 seconds left on the clock (gave Utah a 31-27 lead). Again, while the majority of results for USC have been closer than expected this year, I don't think it's right to bury them. They did lose three O-lineman at Wazzu (another Fri night game!), yet were still tied late in the fourth quarter against maybe the toughest opponent they'll see all year (Notre Dame?). Last week, I faded them, but that came as large favorites (33-pt spread) and though I ended up covering rather easily (38-10 final), USC really dominated the game from the outset. It was 28-3 at the end of three quarters and the Trojans still finished w/ a rather significant 512-319 edge in total yds. 

Utah has two road wins thus far, but both were by only six points, and they were quite fortunate to overcome Arizona a couple weeks ago. That game saw them outgained 448-341 only to benefit from FIVE turnovers, the last of which came at their own 20-yd line w/ the game hanging in the balance. Even worse, QB Tyler Huntley was injured in that game, necessitating a move back to 2016 starter Trevor Williams. Williams struggled against Stanford, barely completing 50% of his pass attempts. The Utes have been tremendous as an underdog the last several seasons, but this reminds me a bit of their last visit to the Coliseum, two years ago, where they were ranked #3 in the country (unbeaten at the time!), yet underdogs and lost 42-24. In my opinion, Southern Cal remains the class of the Pac 12 South. 8* USC

8* Tulsa (4:00 ET): I can't say that Tulsa's 2017 regression comes as any surprise, given that I had them earmarked to take a step back following LY's somewhat stunning 10-3 (SU) campaign. After all, they lost their starting QB, a 1,600 yd rusher and TWO 1,000+ yd receivers from that team, not to mention three of the top four tacklers on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, I did not envision the Golden Hurricane coming into this key AAC West matchup at 1-5 straight up. They've lost four in a row, three of them close before last week's absolutely wretched deal at Tulane where a decision to move up kickoff was made very late (due to Hurricane Nate). It seems as if the Tulsa players didn't get that memo, however, as Tulane scored on each of its SEVEN first half possessions and went into the break up 48-7. The final score ended up being 62-28.  Back home this week, and getting lots of points, I expect a much more focused group. Take the points.

Houston came into the year as the favorite to win the division, just like last year when they underperformed (were considered New Year's Six contender) and finished only 9-4 SU in Tom Herman's final year. Major Applewhite was the OC under Herman, so there's not been much of a learning curve. That said, I feel the Cougars are a bit lucky to be 4-1 SU night. They've played nothing but close games (save for horrible Rice) and generally had the ball bounce their way. The season opener at Arizona (won 19-16) could have gone either way. They lost outright at home to Texas Tech, 24-17 as seven-point favorites, giving up over 500 yards of total offense (also turned the ball over five times). A 20-13 win at Temple (who has also taken a major step back this year) saw them benefit from turnovers, but the big story there was Ed Oliver suffering a knee injury. He did play last week against SMU, but as I'm about to get into, that was a pretty lucky cover for the Cougs.

You can probably file that Houston-SMU game last Saturday right at the top of the "bad beats" pile. Yeah, SMU was probably in line for a non-cover anyway based on a 5-0 ATS start. But as 10-pt underdogs, they didn't trail by double digits until early fourth quarter. Trailing 35-22, the Mustangs' next three drives all reached the Houston side of the field, but NONE of them resulted in points. Houston was outgained by 81 yds in the contest and if you take away that game against Rice, then the overall numbers look really subpar. Granted, Tulsa has work to do as well, but two of their losses were by a field goal, one as a 7.5-pt home favorite against New Mexico. Last week's performance is no way indicative of what Philip Montgomery's team can bring to the table. Looking to avoid what would be a third straight loss at home (and fifth in a row overall), I expect a strong effort from the home dog Saturday. Meanwhile, UH seems to be in an awful spot given the lucky cover last week, the fact they have a QB controversy brewing (haven't even mentioned that!) and are looking at a short week coming up w/ Memphis on deck (at home) Thursday. 8* Tulsa

8* LSU (3:30 ET): It is quite amazing to see the shift in the market and public perception for this SEC West matchup. The look ahead line over the summer had LSU as the 7-point favorite. Now the Bayou Bengals' disappointing play thus far certainly justifies a move in the market, but I have to now wonder if that move is too much, plus the public is ALL over Auburn here. Such lopsided endorsement of the road team, as a favorite no less, seems somewhat foolish as the home team is on a 15-2 SU run in this rivalry. Yes, LSU has failed to cover its last five times as an underdog. But three of those games came against Alabama. Auburn might be feeling a bit too good about itself coming into Death Valley this year, strange because they have not won here since 1999! Take the points. 

LSU opened its season w/ a 27-0 shutout of BYU in what looked to be an impressive performance. We now know that BYU's offense is terrible and the Tigers haven't covered since. They were actually 8.5-pt favorites AT Mississippi State, a game that seems like it was played eons ago, and that 37-7 loss is what really began the downturn. Note I played AGAINST LSU in that game. I also played against them vs. Syracuse when they never came close to covering (still won 35-26). But, without question, the nadir of the season came w/ the 24-21 loss to Troy two weeks ago. LSU had the edge in total yds there, but was undone by four turnovers. With their stock seemingly at an all-time low and fans openly questioning the Ed Orgeron hire, the team responded with a win at Florida, which tells me they're not going to roll over. The defense held the Gators to only 302 total yds and will now be stronger w/ the returns of Rashard Lawrence and Frank Herron on the edge. On offense, RB Derrius Guice missed the Troy game and has not gone over 100 yds since the 2nd game of season. But according to Orgeron, he's had a strong week of practice and is ready to go here. Remember that Guice ran for almost 1400 yds and had 15 TD's last year as a backup. 

Auburn's three-game SEC win streak has come at the expense of teams that are a combined 1-7 SU in the league w/ Ole Miss and Mizzou arguably being the weakest teams overall. They did dominate the same Mississippi State team that dominated LSU, but the winners of both those games were the home teams. Something else certainly worth noting is that LSU was the road favorite for this matchup last year and lost outright 18-13 (laying three). So it's a revenge game for them. Here, I do not expect Auburn's offense to come anywhere close to the production we've seen so far in SEC play. Rather, it should be a lower scoring type affair conducive to taking the points. Yes it was Clemson they were playing, but Auburn's offense managed just over 100 total yards in an earlier road game. The only other road game they've played was at Missouri, who is awful to begin with and turned the ball over four times. 8* LSU

8* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): Plenty of points are expected in this Big 12 matchup (total is 75!), but I'm far more intrigued by the side in what looks like a trap spot for the short home chalk. Sure enough, the sharp dollars quickly flowed in AGAINST WVU here taking them from a TD favorite to nearly a field goal. What makes this a trap spot for the Mountaineers is that they are coming off a tough loss LW at TCU (both teams were off byes), 31-24, as 12.5-pt underdogs. It was a game WVU finished w/ the edge in total yards (508-406) and first downs (28-16), but two turnovers cost them and they gave up the GW TD w/ just under three minutes remaining. Texas Tech is a live dog here as not only did they go for 600+ total yds LW, but they also are 19-9-2 ATS overall their L30 games. Take the points (even though you may not end up needing them). 

The majority of signs were pointing down coming into the year in Morgantown. This is far from HC Dana Holgorsen's most experienced team as he had only eight starters back from last year's squad that finished 10-3 SU. Of course, that 10-3 SU record included a rather fortuitous 4-0 mark in games decided by four points or less. (BYU, Kansas St, Texas and Baylor were the teams they beat close). Ironically, one of LY's biggest wins in conference play came against Texas Tech, 48-17 (-2) in Lubbock. But that was actually the 'Neers' first cover against the Red Raiders since joining the Big 12. They were 0-4 ATS previously even though they've now won the L3 meetings (straight up). In their first game of '17, WVU was go-against team in my 10* Game of the Week and they lost to Va Tech. I wasn't all too impressed by a subsequent three-game win streak as the teams they beat included East Carolina (terrible), Delaware State (FCS) and Kansas (worst team in Big 12). That lack of impressiveness there is somewhat confirmed by them failing to cover twice. Last week's loss in Ft. Worth does not set them up well here as they are 1-6 ATS L3 seasons off a conference loss.

Texas Tech's only loss came two weeks ago to Oklahoma State, a game which really wasn't as close as the 31-24 final indicates. But they do have wins over both Arizona State and at Houston. Last week was not close as it was their turn to blow out Kansas, 65-19 as 14.5-pt chalk. It's worth noting they dominated Kansas far more than WVU did. We know this team can move the ball as they come in averaging 549.8 YPG. Last week marked the 3rd time they broke the 600-yard threshold. Now WVU does average roughly 30 more YPG, but you might be surprised to learn that the Texas Tech defense is better overall and on a yards per play basis (5.5 to 6.1). While I'm a bit surprised to see the Red Raiders ranked in the AP Poll (#24) (they replaced WVU!), I feel this game sets up well for them as it's a triple revenge spot and WVU has lost nine straight to ranked opponents. The Red Raiders can also run the ball, something that has NOT been the case in past seasons. 8* Texas Tech

10* Army (12:00 ET): Burdened w/ expectations for the 1st time in the Jeff Monken era (4th year here at West Point), the Cadets are having a little bit of an issue covering spreads. They've actually been favored four times previous to here and gone just 2-2 ATS. However, it's interesting to note that all four times saw them asked to lay double digits, which is NOT the case this week as they welcome Eastern Michigan to campus. EMU achieved its greatest success in years last season (1st bowl appearance since '87!), but was expected to regress here in '17 and has responded in kind. They've dropped three in a row, albeit all by a TD or less. I don't like this spot for the visiting Eagles - at all - as not only is it a third consecutive road game, but stepping outside of MAC play right now probably isn't for the best. Lay the points.

Army did cover as a favorite LW, routing RIce by a final score of 49-12 (-12), on the road no less, their first win in Houston since '58. Now Rice is undoubtedly one of the worst teams in the country and they turned the ball over SIX times. But building a 35-0 by halftime was impressive for the Black Knights. Not exactly known for forcing TO's, Army forced one on each of Rice's first four possessions and scored a TD off every one! Their forte is of course running the football and they went for 418 yds over land, their most since the opener. They figure to have success here against an Eastern Michigan defense that has struggled against the run in four of its five games this season. Speaking of defense, Army has been pretty impressive on that side of the ball thus far. Only Ohio State has topped 21 points against them and Eastern Michigan isn't likely to, given they come in averaging only 19.0 PPG. 

This will be the third meeting in five years between these two schools as they've alternated every season. Army has won both prior meetings, scoring 50 or more each time. They are 6-1 SU all-time against the Eagles. Off three consecutive tough losses, it's going to be tough for Eastern Michigan to "get off the mat" here. Against Ohio U, they fell in double OT at home. Then came perhaps the toughest loss of the bunch, at Kentucky, where despite an edge in total yds they lost 24-20. Last week in Toledo, QB Brogan Roback threw an INT at the Toledo 31 yard line w/ just over a minute to go in a 20-15 loss. Given the turnover issues that have plagued EMU and what Army did to Rice last week, TO's again figure to be a deciding factor in this one. We know Army can run the ball, but Eastern Michigan cannot as during the three-game losing streak, they've averaged only 43.7 yards per game. 10* Army

8* Indiana (12:00 ET): Home dogs off a bye haven't performed as well as you might think ATS, but here Indiana happens to be catching Michigan at a most opportune time. Yes, you can dissect the Wolverines' horrid 14-10 home loss to Michigan State last week (were off a bye themselves) any way you'd like. They outgained Sparty (slightly) only to be undone by an ugly -5 turnover differential. But the Maize and Blue happen to be in real trouble right now as they're down several key players on the offensive side of the ball and backup QB John O'Korn did not look good at all last Saturday night. Furthermore, ranked teams off a loss have not fared well in the past, cashing in around just 45% when favored or on the road. Michigan happens to both this week and a popular choice among the public as well. Take the points. 

The fact that Indiana went 0 for 2 ATS against Ohio State and Penn State is misleading at best and criminal at worst. They played both Big 10 heavyweights tough. The season opener here in Bloomington saw IU "tooth and nail" w/ Ohio State for almost three quarters (led 21-20 w/ 4:56 left in 3Q!) only to wilt late due to an inability to stop Buckeyes' RB JK Dobbins. Michigan does not have a back anywhere near as dynamic as Dobbins. The Penn State game might have looked ugly on the scoreboard (lost 45-14 as 20-pt dogs), but note the Hoosiers turned it over four times in that game, two of which were INT's returned for touchdowns. I thought their defense held up really well against a potent Nittany Lions offense, holding them to just 370 total yds and Heisman front-runner Saquon Barkley to 56 yds on 26 carries. Again, the offense they'll face this week is nowhere near as good as Ohio State or Penn State's. Michigan is averaging barely 4.0 yards per rush and has a backup in at quarterback. Michigan's defense might be #1 in the country and forcing three and outs, but Indiana's is actually #2!

Now the Wolverines do have one of the better defenses in the entire country. But they've also yet to face an offense as good as what Indiana brings to the table. The Hoosiers' 34-17 win over Virginia (on the road!) keeps looking better and better given how the Hoos have subsequently performed. Furthermore, Indiana will keep the Michigan defense "on its toes" as they are likely to rotate QB's w/ senior Richard Lagow and freshman Peyton Ramsey (made 1st career start last week). No matter who is in at QB, they will have a talented set of receivers to throw the ball to. The Indiana defense has seen O'Korn before as he started against them LY due to a different Wilton Speight injury. That game saw the Hoosiers EASILY cover as 24-point underdogs in "The Big House." The last meeting here in Bloomington was also an easy cover as it went to double OT. While IU has not beaten Michigan since 1987 (lost 21 straight!), on paper, this year sets up as their best shot at an outright win. 8* Indiana

8* BYU (12:00 ET): Yes, Mississippi State is off a bye here and looking to get back on track after B2B embarrassing defeats at the hands of Auburn and Georgia (two admittedly very good teams). And they probably couldn't have asked for a better opponent as BYU rolls into Starkville for this early kick. BYU has lost five straight since a season opening win over FCS Portland State and has yet to cover a single pointspread here in 2017. Their 0-6 ATS record is in fact the worst in the entire country. But as bleak as things look right now in Provo, I believe this line has moved enough (hit the key number of 24!) to make taking the underdog worth the shot. As I've written about extensively before, teams getting three touchdowns or more this season have been KILLING it, going 82-47 ATS including 6-2 last week! Take the points.

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I did think last week was an opportune time to back BYU as well. They jumped out to a 7-0 lead on Boise State, but would not score again and lost 24-7 as 7-pt underdogs. Certainly, we are not used to seeing BYU football play this poorly. I will point out that the lone FBS team they were favored against was Utah State and the money moved in sharply against them there (I actually had USU). That game saw BYU again take an early lead, only to be foiled by SEVEN turnovers, which negated an edge in total yards. While this team isn't good, I still think they're better than how they've looked so far. Before the current 0-4 ATS mark this year, this team had covered 8 of 10 in the underdog role. 

I think MSU is still getting "residual credit" for its 37-7 beatdown of LSU last month, which given the Tigers' subsequent struggles, no longer looks as impressive as it once did. All that goodwill earned for HC Dan Mullen there was quickly undone w/ the pair of losses to Auburn and Georgia, who outscored them 80-13 w/ significant yardage advantages. QB Nick Fitzgerald, who was made to look like a Heisman candidate by BYU, struggled badly in both losses. Stepping outside the SEC schedule here, off a bye no less, may not exactly be the most inspiring spot for the Bulldogs, especially given the state of the opponent. Be aware that last season saw BYU upset Mississippi State, in Provo, 28-21 (+7) in double overtime. Yes, that means the "revenge angle" is technically in play, but I'm not sure that will mean much to the Bulldogs' players here. Certainly not enough to actively seek out winning by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for. That game LY saw MSU never trail in regulation, but they failed to put the game away. This is BYU's longest losing streak since 1970 (!), so I feel they will actually be the more motivated side Sat afternoon. 8* BYU

10* Under Yankees/Astros (8:05 ET): Perhaps we shouldn't have been as "caught off guard" by the Yankees upsetting the Indians in the LDS. After all, when you look at the discrepancy based on actual vs. expected wins, the latter based off YTD run differential, the team wearing pinstripes was the regular season's biggest underachiever. Simply put, this was a 102-60 team (+178 run diff) dressed in a 91-71 record. Throw in the fact the team they just eliminated was a similar "underachiever" (the 102-60 Indians had the run diff of a 110-win team!) and they had to come back from a 2-0 series deficit, the Yanks' 1st rd achievement becomes all the more impressive. Now though, they draw what I believe is - top to bottom - the most talented team in baseball. So I'll be shying away from the side in Game 1 of the ALCS and instead look at the total.

These teams played seven times during the regular season. Houston won five of those matchups and the three played here at Minute Maid Park all went Over the total. In fact, the last five meetings all saw Over tickets cash. But, the stakes are obviously higher now than they were back in the summer. I'm pretty sure we can count on ace Dallas Keuchel delivering a quality showing for the Astros seeing as this game is at home. Keuchel has long dominated here at home and 2017 was no different w/ a 2.21 ERA and 0.957 WHIP here. The Yankees faced Keuchel only one time in the regular season, at home, and he shut them down to the tune of six scoreless innings back in May. The Yanks managed just five hits in a 3-2 loss. I look for something similar tonight. Then there was the 2015 Wild Card Game when Keuchel completely dominated the Yankees lineup, albeit a much different one. Remember that the Yankees' best hitter, Aaron Judge, is off a dreadful LDS where he struck out 16 times in 20 AB's. 

Houston has the best offense in baseball, but the Yankees seem uniquely suited to slowing them down. With the Indians out, New York can claim to have the best bullpen of the four remaining teams. They also have Masahiro Tanaka starting Game 1 and he's off B2B dominant outings where he didn't allow a single run in 14 IP (22-1 KW rate!). He three-hit the Indians in a must win Game 3, a 1-0 win for NY. Note that the Yankees' pitching staff allowed 40 fewer runs this year compared to their Astros' counterparts. Impressive is that the Yanks are allowing only 4.3 rpg on the road this season. Over the L7 games, they are holding opposing hitters to a minuscule .173 batting average, but also hitting only .206 themselves. This series opener has all the makings of a pitcher's duel. 10* Under Yankees/Astros

8* Under Rangers/Blue Jackets (7:05 ET): These two comprised half of the top-heavy Metro last year where the top four teams all finished w/ more than 100 points, well ahead of the rest of the field. Columbus was the better team overall and took three of five overall against the Rangers. But the road team had a lot of success in those five meetings, winning all but one time. Also, the Over hit on four of five occasions. I've got no read at all on who's winning here, but I do believe it will be a lower scoring game than expected. The Blue Jackets turned in a shutout (5-0 over the Islanders) in their lone home game thus far and are also off a 2-1 win at Carolina Tuesday. That result sets them up well here as the Under is 25-13 the L2 seasons when C-bus is playing w/ exactly two days' rest. 

The Rangers have started a disappointing 1-3 SU, all three losses coming in regulation. In the first two games, they had major issues stopping the opponent from scoring as they gave up four goals to Colorado and EIGHT to Toronto. In the last two games, however, they simply struggled to score. While they shutout Montreal 2-0 on Sunday, it was a 3-1 LOSS at home to St. Louis Tuesday in what seemed like an ideal situation for the Blueshirts (Blues came in w/o rest). One area that I see improving is the penalty kill as right now they rank dead last at a dreadful 68.8%. They simply faced too many chances in those first two games (11). I also expect better play from Henrik Lundqvist moving forward. This may not be his favorite opponent, but we're still talking about a veteran netminder who possesses incredible skills.

As for the Blue Jackets, there appears to be no issues between the pipes whatsoever. Coming off his 2nd Vezina win, Sergei Bobrovsky is off to a strong start to the season as he's stopped 66 of 67 shots for a .985 save percentage. The one goal allowed came in his last start, but the end result was still a 2-1 win over Carolina in OT. His other start resulted in a 5-0 shutout of the Islanders. So I wouldn't put much stock into that 5-1 loss C-bus suffered in Chicago seeing as a) Bobrovsky didn't play and b) the 'Hawks are off to as good a start as any team in the league right now. 8* Under Rangers/Blue Jackets

10* Syracuse (8:00 ET): There are 13 remaining unbeatens in College Football and #2 Clemson is probably among the least surprising of them. The defending Nat'l Champs have not played an easy schedule by any means, holding wins over three Top 15 teams (at the time) - Auburn, Louisville & Virginia Tech. More impressive is that both ACC wins came on the road, though in retrospect those two wins may not have been as impressive as originally thought. At 6-0 SU, Tigers' fans are likely pointing to the B2B games in November against NC State and Florida State as the most likely stumbling blocks. But w/ an open date looming next week, they shouldn't sleep on this weeknight matchup at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse is an improved team this year and can certainly score.

The Tigers appeared to the be on their way to an easy cover LW in Death Valley against Wake Forest. They led 28-0 in fourth quarter (laying 21), but then gave up a pair of late TD's to allow the Demon Deacon in through the proverbial "back door." More critical, however, was the injury to QB Kelly Bryant (left w/ ankle injury). Bryant has surprised everyone so far in how well he's filled in for DeShaun Watson. But, at less than 100 percent, I'm interested to see how he performs. HC Dabo Swinney is on the record as saying he believes Bryant will play, but if he doesn't, it will be either a redshirt freshman or true freshman starting instead. That could be problematic on the road. Impressive as they've looked so far, coming into the year I had Clemson slipping record-wise as it was unlikely they'd be able to match LY's 7-1 record in games decided by seven points or less. They were 3-1 SU in such games the year prior. Don't forget though; last year they were upset by Pitt (as 21-point favorites) - at home.

Syracuse is an experienced team as they brought a FBS-high 19 returning starters back for HC Dino Babers, now in his second year here. Babers, who came over from Bowling Green (boy have they gone in the toilet since he left), was expected to immediately improve the offense and that's exactly what's transpired as the Orange come in averaging 32.0 PPG this year. They're only 3-3 SU mind you, but all three losses were by single digits and two were on the road against LSU and NC State. Last week, they overcame an early deficit to beat Pittsburgh 27-24 as three-point chalk. While it ended up being a close game (Pitt scored late TD), Syracuse put up 500 yards of total offense and had 10 more first downs. At 3-3 SU right now and with games left against Miami, Florida St and Louisville (all on the road), the Orange are going to have to pull at least one upset in order to make a bowl game. I'm not saying they'll pull that necessary upset, but this is obviously the biggest home game of the year and I expect them to play well. 10* Syracuse

10* Carolina (8:25 ET): This just might be the best matchup on the NFL Week 6 slate. I'm not convinced that Philadelphia or Carolina is the "team to beat" in the NFC right now, but both are primed to finish near the top of the standings. We've got a pair of 4-1 starts here and each is off an impressive Week 5 victory. The only difference is that Carolina (on the road) had to withstand a late, but ultimately fruitless, comeback attempt by Detroit. But they still won 27-24 for me as a slight underdog (were +120 in total yds). Meanwhile, there were no issues for Philadelphia in its 34-7 win over Arizona as 6.5-point favorites. That said, an underdog off a win by 21 or more points is typically not a good bet. Teams in that position have covered at just a 43.2% ATS rate since '05. Early betting had more tickets on the Eagles, but more money on the Panthers.

Cam Newton may have had a rough week off the field last week, but he looked great w/ the helmet and pads on in Detroit. So far, he's completing 63% of his pass attempts of 15+ yards, which would be a career-best. Remember this was the MVP two seasons ago. He was 6 of 7 on passes of 15+ yards w/ a TD pass LW vs. Detroit. The loss of TE Greg Olsen hasn't seemed to matter as Ed Dickson hauled in five passes for 175 yds a week ago. Overall, Newton is completing over 68% of his passes this year, which would also be a career best (credit Christian McCaffrey). This is an offense that just averaged 30 PPG in a pair of road wins, one of them at Foxboro. The defense is allowing an average of just 18.8 points and 274 yards per game, both of which have them in the top nine in the league. This is a really good team and as I'd expected, they're a lock to improve upon LY's disappointing 6-9-1 SU finish. 

Philadelphia is another team I expected to improve its record this year. They have a better scoring differential than the Panthers, but their YPG differential is roughly identical. Something that probably won't be talked about enough in the build to this one is the Eagles potentially being w/o stud O-lineman Lane Johnson. Carson Wentz had a career day LW vs. Arizona, but w/o Johnson (concussion), he's likely to decline - severely. Wentz's numbers and the Eagles' won-loss record for that matter are significantly worse when Johnson is not in the lineup (remember he was suspended for 10 games last year). They are 9-2 SU when Johnson plays and 2-8 when he does not and Wentz's TD-INT ratio takes a predictable hit in the games where Johnson doesn't play. Carolina's defense ranks third in the league w/ 17 sacks. The Eagles' defense may be allowing only 19.8 points per game, but they're 22nd in yards allowed (346). They could be w/o DT Fletcher Cox again (missed L2 games) and remember that on the back end, they still don't have CB Ronald Darby. 10* Carolina

8* Under Eagles/Panthers (8:25 ET): Carolina is coming off a pair of road wins where they scored a total of 60 points against a pair of playoff teams from last year, one of them being the Patriots. But they also have a defense that ranks in the top 10 in both scoring (18.8 PPG) and yards (274.0 per game). They just held Detroit to 242 yards last week. On paper, this looks like an even matchup w/ the Eagles, who are also 4-1 SU and off a dominant win. They routed the Cardinals last week, 34-7, albeit at home. But I don't see the Eagles' offense being as successful this week w/ stud O-lineman Lane Johnson likely out (concussion). The Eagles' defense should also be able to hold its own here as it is allowing only 19.8 points per game. Take the Under here in a battle of two likely playoff teams. 

I do not expect either team to run the ball w/ much success in this one. Save for their lone loss to the Saints, Carolina has yet to allow any opponent to rush for more than 80 yards this season. Philadelphia isn't allowing anyone to run on them right now as the L3 games have seen them give up an average of just 46 rushing yards per game! Only Kansas City (lone loss) has gone for more than 64 yds over land against them. Last week saw the Panthers average a "whopping" one yard per attempt rushing the ball as they gained just 28 yards on 28 carries and that was against the Lions. Philadelphia's run game and probably the whole offense will be adversely affected by Johnson's absence. RB Wendell Smallwood is likely out as well. The short week here isn't going to help either offense. 

Let's talk more about Lane Johnson. Over the L2 seasons, the Eagles are 9-2 SU when Johnson plays and 2-8 when he does not. Wentz's TD-INT ratio takes a predictable hit in the games where Johnson doesn't play. Carolina's defense ranks third in the league w/ 17 sacks, so pass protection could be another issue for the Eagles here. Meanwhile, after going Over in three straight games and scoring 60 pts total the L2 weeks, I don't see the Panthers coming close to their recent offensive efficiency here. In two home games so far, they've scored only 22 points total! However, their defense allowed only six points - total - the first two games of the season, remember. 8* Under Eagles/Panthers

10* Florida (7:30 ET): Tip your cap to St. Louis, who has started the season 4-0 w/ three wins on the road. But their goal differential is only +6, so they've hardly been dominant. For the sake of comparison, division rival Chicago (who is 3-0-1) has a goal differential of +14. Furthermore, they are still unbeaten despite being outshot significantly. They are giving up 37.0 shots per game, a really high number that ranks them in the top five. At the same time, the number of shots they are getting off on a per game basis (28.2) is relatively low. So, only Washington and Vancouver are being outshot more on a per game basis. If this continues, it is NOT a recipe for success. 

On the other hand, you have Florida, whose shot per game differential is the BEST in the league right now (+14.5). They're allowing only 27.5, third fewest in the league, while averaging 42.0 per game. Now this comes w/ a caveat in that it's a small sample size (two games) and they've played the same opponent twice. But being the better rested of the two teams here is only more ammunition to like the home side here. This is their first game since Saturday when they beat in-state rival Tampa Bay, 5-4, in the second leg of a home and home. This is a young team that made a lot of changes in the offseason, but there is potential there and one thing that indicates improvement for 2017-18 is the fact that they fell by 22 points in the standings LY. They'll likely finish somewhere in the middle of 2015-16 and 2016-17's point total and challenge for a Wild Card. 

Making St. Louis' start all the more surprising is they are w/o four key contributors on the offensive end of the ice. All four players are going to be out the rest of the month at least and three will be out until December. One (Robby Fabbri) is done for the year. Zach Sanford and Patrik Berglund will both likely be out until December. So a short-handed team continuing to stay unbeaten seems unlikely. Jake Allen has posted a 2.50 GAA in his three starts, but I don't seem him maintaining that. Counterpart Roberto Luongo did not fare as his well in his lone start so far, but at home I expect him to bounce back w/ a solid start here. The last two seasons have seen the Panthers go 10-6 SU when playing w/ at least three days' rest. 10* Florida

8* Los Angeles (10:35 ET): Compared to past years, the Kings came into the 2017-18 season a bit under the radar. That has to do w/ them missing the playoffs twice in the last three seasons, including last year, but the way this team plays hockey (puck possession!) will always be conducive to success. They've started the year w/ a pair of wins, a shut out of the Flyers here at home (I was on them there) and a 4-1 win at rival San Jose. They're well-rested coming into tonight having not played since Saturday. Meanwhile, their opponents find themselves playing on the road for a third time in four games and in the second leg of the "dreaded" California road trip. Interestingly, the Flames WON'T play San Jose, but did upset Anaheim (2-0) on Monday. Calgary was a playoff team last season, but I'm not very high on them this year. In fact, I could see LA replacing them in the playoff field.

Calgary improved from 77 to 94 points last year, so there should be some built in regression here. I was a bit surprised to see their point total at 95.5 a month ago and I'm firmly on the 'Under' in this one. The last two times the Flames have made the postseason, they've looked severly outgunned by the opposition. Now they're banking on the goaltending and blue line to carry them this year, which I suppose isn't a terrible strategy. This franchise has not had consistent, strong play between the pipes for some time now. So I understand the optimism surrounding Mike Smith being brought into the fold. In three starts thus far, Smith has posted a superb .957 save percentage, stopping 110 of 115 shots. But that's a lot of shots he's been facing (avg of 38.7 per game!). They were outshot 43-29 in Anaheim Monday, so that certainly qualifies as a fortunate two points there.

The Kings were outshot here at home by the Flyers in the season opener (still won 2-0), but then came back to keep the Sharks in check (38-25 edge in shots) in the 4-1 victory there. Having allowed just one goal in two games, it looks as if the "old" Jonathan Quick is back between the pipes here. Remember, he missed significant time due to injury last year (played in only 17 games) and that had a huge negative effect on the team's season. Take note that Calgary allowed a total of six goals in its first two games. That win in Anaheim could also lend itself to a letdown as it marked the 1ST time in the last 25 reg season visits that they won there! Playing at home when the O/U line is 5.5 doesn't happen very often for the Kings, but when it does, they're a deadly 9-1 the L3 seasons. 8* Los Angeles

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): It's a winner take all Game 5 in Cleveland tonight as the Indians' 2-0 series lead has evaporated thanks to them losing both games in the Bronx. But this is where them finishing w/ the AL's best record comes in "handy" as they're now back at home w/ the probable Cy Young winner Corey Kluber on the hill. Granted, the last time this situation presented itself (Game 2), things got a bit dicey w/ the Yankees knocking out Kluber early (after just 2 2/3 IP!). But, as you know, the Tribe came back to win that game, 9-8, in 13 innings. Had it not been for that rally, the team that won an AL-record 22 straight games would already be done. But fortunately for them, the likelihood of Kluber struggling again is small and the numbers back that assertion up.

Not including Game 2, there have been four other instances of Kluber allowing 4+ runs in a start this season. Three of them occurred back in April/May before he spent almost a month on the DL. All four times have seen him bounce back w/ a quality outing where he allowed 2 ER or less. The last three times in the scenario, he's allowed only 1 ER in a total of 24 IP w/ TWO complete games and his KW ratio was 30-4. Ironically, the last time he was coming off a poor outing, he happened to face the Yankees (here at Progressive Field) and tossed a CG three-hitter (allowed 1 ER). This is a pitcher w/ a 0.897 WHIP for the year and backed by one of the game's top bullpens. If you're manager Terry Francona and you need to win a game, Kluber is clearly who you want pitching.

The Yankees have a losing road record on the year. Over the L7 games, their vaunted offense is batting a collective .206. They woke up in Game 4, but that was at home. I maintain that this offense is too reliant on the long ball and if they're not hitting home runs, they simply don't score much. CC Sabathia (former Indian!) will oppose Kluber here, just like he did in Game 2. I was surprised that the hefty lefty was able to pitch as well as he did last Friday, but even then he did allow four runs (two unearned) and issue three walks. While Sabathia has a team start record (19-9) similar to Kluber's (21-9), his ERA is a over a full point higher and his WHIP is 1.266, compared to Kluber's league-leading number (see above). Again, this is the AL's top pitcher on the mound as a big home favorite. In his final 15 reg season starts, Kluber posted a 1.79 ERA and a 142-12 KW rate. Edwin Encarnacion could be back tonight for Cleveland, which would be a nice lift. 8* Cleveland

8* South Alabama (8:00 ET): These teams had very different results their respective last times out, which was two Saturdays ago. Of course, Troy stunned the College Football universe by going into LSU and upsetting the heavily favored Bayou Bengals, 24-21 as 20.5-pt underdogs. Though the Trojans should be given plenty of credit for the biggest win in program history, they were outgained and the beneficiaries of four LSU turnovers. South Alabama, on the other hand, was on the wrong end of a bad beat at Louisiana Tech that same evening. Getting double digits, the Jaguars were down only one point entering the fourth quarter. Sadly, they were outscored 17-0 the rest of the way w/ the final TD allowed coming after they'd turned the ball over deep in their own territory, late. This is an in-state rivalry that USA, being the neophyte program, wants to make more relevant. I'll be taking the points here. 

South Alabama had a very interesting season last year. They beat both Mississippi State (on the road!) and San Diego State (who was ranked #19 at the time). However, they still finished only 6-7 SU after a loss in the Arizona Bowl to Air Force. Also, besides the two upsets, they covered only other game (finished 3-10 ATS). Right now, they have a long way to go before they can start thinking bowl game. The lone SU win this year came at the expense of a FCS program (Alabama A&M). Now, to be fair, the season opened w/ games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. But it's been the last two results that have proven to be less kind. Not only did they fall apart at La Tech, but in the Sun Belt opener, they fell (at home) to Idaho in double overtime, 29-23, giving up the game-tying TD w/ less than a minute to go in regulation.

Since South Alabama made the move from the FCS level in 2012, these teams have met four times. The underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS w/ three of the games decided by seven points or less. That's what I'm looking for here. Troy clearly comes in a bit overvalued due to the historic upset of LSU. Coming off a 10-3 SU season, the Trojans are now 4-1 w/ four straight victories (lost opener at Boise State), but the last three have all been by five points or less. They are a team that I projected to regress in '17 and truthfully, an outright upset would not shock me this evening. Troy is just 4-9 ATS its L13 home games and 0-5 ATS off its previous five bye weeks. 8* South Alabama

6* Dallas (8:35 ET): Though it's still (really) early, I'm quite surprised how both of these teams have started the season. Sure, coming off their worst campaign in ages, one could make a case for the Red Wings to improve in 2017. But the fact remains that they should have been even WORSE last year. Had it not been for a somewhat miraculous 9-0 record in shootouts, they would have undoubtedly finished in last place in the Atlantic. As for Dallas, they too are due for turnaround as last season saw them fall from the top of the Central (were the West's #1 seed in 2015-16) to 79 points (same as Red Wings!) and out of the playoffs a year ago. I'm a bigger believer in Dallas bouncing back this year, so considering the respective starts, I'm on them here.

Detroit is 2-0, having beaten the Wild and Senators. They were ML dogs for both contests and outshot in both contests (giving up an average of 38.5 shots per game). Of course, the win in Ottawa came via a shootout (is there any other way for this team?). Something to keep in mind from that game is the Senators were w/o captain Erik Karlsson and that had a definite impact on their power play, which went a wretched 0 for 7 including 0 for 4 in the 1st period alone where they managed just six shots. Goalie Jimmy Howard has been bailing the Wings out so far, but he can only carry this team so far as they lack depth and made little improvement in the offseason.

Dallas is 0-2, which is unfortunate considering they've dramatically outshot both opponents. The season started w/ a brutal 2-1 loss in Vegas, despite the PK going 7 for 7. Nothing like starting the year w/ a loss to an expansion team. Then, the following night, they had to go to St. Louis and lost 4-2 despite nearly a 2:1 edge in shots on goal. Having averaged 43 shots per game so far, I have to imagine the goals will start coming as scoring has never been an issue for this team. Opposing goaltenders posting a .965 save percentage against them is simply not sustainable. As for goaltending, that has long been an issue for the Stars, but they brought in Ben Bishop this offseason and that should lead to better play there. Note Bishop was not between the pipes against St. Louis as it was the 2nd game of a back to back and he left the opener w/ a concussion. His leaving the game vs. Vegas is what made the final result so brutal there as he had stopped all 19 shots he saw before leaving. Cleared to return, he'll lead the Stars to their first victory of the season here. 6* Dallas

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): The Predators obviously came into 2017-18 w/ plenty of hype based on LY's run to the Stanley Cup Finals. Unfortunately, they've opened 0-2 w/ losses to Boston and Pittsburgh, the latter a Stanley Cup rematch that didn't go the Preds' way - at all (lost 4-0). But tonight marks the home opener as they will raise the Western Conference Championship banner. While the Preds were actually a sub-.500 team on the road last year in the regular season, they were much better at home and went 9-2 SU at Bridgestone Arena during the postseason run. So, expect them to handle Philadelphia, a non-playoff team from last year that is off to a somewhat surprising 2-1 SU start. This will be the Flyers' fourth consecutive road game to open the year. 

Furthermore, Philly is coming off the dreaded "California trip" which saw them play the Sharks, Kings and Ducks all in a four-day span. They pulled out surprising wins in both San Jose and Anaheim, but if you recall, I faded them in LA and the result there was a shutout by the Kings. So once again, I'll fade them off a win. They did outshoot Anaheim 37-23 on Saturday, but needed OT to pull out the 3-2 win. After scoring three power play goals in the season opener, the Flyers are now 0 for 10 the last two games. I'm just not sold on this team for this season. They allowed the 4th most goals in the East a season ago and I'm not entirely sure Brian Elliot represents any kind of upgrade between the pipes. Though they rolled out four lines against Anaheim, depth isn't a strong suit here.

As for Nashville, I fully expect them to turn things around and compete for the Central Division title. They opener their season w/ a pair of tough road games, so really it's not a shock that they're 0-2. The Stanley Cup rematch in Pittsburgh obviously did not go well, but keep in mind they started Juuse Saros in that one, not Pekka Rinne (who is winless in six career starts in Pittsburgh w/ an .822 save percentage). Rinne will be back between the pipes tonight. He posted a 1.96 GAA and .930 save percentage in leading his team to the Cup Finals last Spring and like his team, is always a bit sharper on home ice. The Preds are 26-17 the L2 seasons after scoring 1 goal or less the previous game. As for the Flyers, they are 7-13 SU after playing three straight road games. 8* Nashville

10* Over Vikings/Bears (8:25 ET): You may need a scorecard here just to keep track of who is in and who's out for this game. Tonight marks the much ballyhooed debut of Bears rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky, the #2 overall draft choice. He takes over for the ineffective (imagine that!) Mike Glennon, who directed the team to an average of just 15.2 points through the first four games. As for Minnesota, they are now w/o BOTH their starting QB (Sam Bradford) and RB (Dalvin Cook), however (as of press time), it is beginning to look more and more likely that the former (Bradford) WILL play. That would be a huge boost to our call, which is the Over on a very low total. 

Vikings HC Mike Zimmer reportedly told ESPN's MNF production crew that he expects Bradford to start here. That's huge. Bradford's lone start thus far resulted in a 29-19 win over the Saints (on MNF no less). They've since alternated bad and good offensive performances w/ Case Keenum at the helm. In the two losses (to Pittsburgh and Detroit), they scored 16 points TOTAL, but they also scored 34 in a win over Tampa Bay. Last season saw Bradford set the NFL's all-time completion percentage record. While the distinction was relatively meaningless, I do think that w/ Bradford in, the offense can move the ball. They showed that in the opener where WR Adam Theilein hauled in nine passes for 157 yards. Bradford completed 27 of 32 pass attempts for 346 yds and three touchdowns. The Vikings offense finished w/ 470 total yards in that game. Yes, it was against the Saints, but it's not as if the Bears' defense is anything special at this point. (Note: If Bradford does NOT play tonight, this play IS still valid). 

The move to Trubisky from Glennon is the right one, even though the Bears' weak receiving corps remains a concern either way. That said, Trubisky did look impressive in the preseason and clearly has the more upside of the two quarterbacks. The Bears' Week 4 loss at Green Bay (Thursday night game) was a little misleading in the sense that the Bears actually outgained the Packers 308-260, only to be undone by an ugly -4 turnover margin. The offense did not break 23 points under Glennon and went Under each of the first three games. The defense has allowed 23 or more points three times. To me, this is a very low total by modern NFL standards and it doesn't take much for an Over to cash here (six touchdowns). The Vikings offense has averaged 6.1 yards per play even w/ Bradford missing three games. 10* Over Vikings/Bears

10* Over Devils/Sabres (3:05 ET): Both of these teams have been giving up a lot of shots so far, so you can expect a higher scoring game than usual here. New Jersey, who finished dead last in the top-heavy Metro a season ago and were one of the bottom teams in scoring. Their first game of this year, however, was quite the fortunate draw as they got to host Colorado, who was off a big upset. The Devils won 4-1, but also allowed 41 shots (had 39 of their own). Buffalo is 0-2, losing to Montreal and the Islanders thanks in large part to giving up nine goals (six against the Isles Satutrday). They've allowed an average of 36.5 shots per game so far while at the same time getting off 37.0 per game of their own. There were 85 shots total in their home opener against the Habs. Take the Over.

The Sabres were a last place team as well last season, finishing at the bottom of the Atlantic w/ only 78 points. Seeing as a similar infusion of younger talent has lifted division-mate Toronto, there's a bit of pressure in upstate New York for this team to improve. An 0-2 start is obviously NOT what the faithful had in mind.They and the Islanders combined to go 0 for 7 on the power play Saturday, but there was still plenty of goal scoring during that time as each team scored TWICE when short-handed! All four short-handed goals were scored in the 2nd period. That's three short-handed goals now allowed by the Sabres in two games, nullifying their own 100% PK unit. I expect plenty of high-scoring games from this team throughout the season as they are trying a more up-tempo approach this year while at the same time breaking in three new players along the blue line. Any team w/ Evander Kane and Jack Eichel should be able to score.

The Devils are known for always playing at a slow pace, but their 1st game saw a total of 80 shots on goal. Corey Schnieder stepped up an made 40 saves against Colorado, but that sort of performance cannot be counted on nightly. Buffalo, whose shooting percentage right now is just 6.8%, should start to see that number go up. The Devils scored three times on the power play Saturday, which is a good sign. Their other goal was short-handed! Normally, I might be looking at even strength scoring, but it's still early in the season and that will come for both sides here. Schneider, remember, is coming off his worst season as a pro as 2016-17 saw him post career-lows in save percentage (.908) and goals against average (2.82).  10* Over Devils/Sabres

8* Under Astros/Red Sox (1:05 ET): Houston missed out on a chance to sweep Boston Sunday, losing Game 3 by a score of 10-3. The home team is now 3-0 in the series as is the Over. Though I'm still firmly "in the camp" of those who believe the Astros ultimately prevail in this series, the Under seems like the better call to me this afternoon. The O/U line has steadily climbed from 7.0 in Gm 1 to 8.5 in Game 2 to 9.5 in Game 3. To me, this is its apex. Houston may have scored eight times in both Games 1 and 2 while Boston crossed the plate TEN times yday. But today, I'll call for more of a "pitcher's duel" even w/ a far less marquee starting pitching matchup than we've had any of the three previous games in this series. Note it was a 4-3 game yday before Boston broke things open w/ a six-run seventh inning.

There were plenty of hits, from both sides yday, and Houston started the scoring w/ a three-run 1st inning. From there, however, (despite 13 hits) they would not score again as Boston used David Price in relief and he pitched four scorless innings. Red Sox starters have NOT gotten the job done in this series so far, but I'll call for Rick Porcello to surprise in this spot. Last year's Cy Young campaign was clearly a fluke, but Porcello did win his final three regular season starts. Boston pitching was typically more stingy in the daytime this year as going into yday, they'd held opponents to just 3.8 rpg w/ a .239 batting average in afternoon games. The Under is 29-17-2. Yes, I'm well aware that Houston is the highest scoring road team in baseball, but for eight innings yday, they didn't score a single run.

As mentioned before, Boston did the majority of its offensive damage yday in one big inning. Their offense is highly overrated as they rank only 26th in slugging and 27th in home runs. Both marks are easily the worst among playoff teams. They'd been averaging fewer than four runs per game for a full week going into yday while batting a collective .239. Astros' Game 4 starter Charlie Morton has quietly had a really solid year w/ a 3.34 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 25 starts. He allowed 2 ER or fewer in all five September starts. That includes a strong showing here in Fenway Park where he allowed just two runs on four hits w/ no walks (4 K's) in 5 1/3 IP. The Astros won that game 3-2 and Morton is now 2-0 w/ a 1.74 ERA in two career starts vs. Boston. Hoping Mother Nature cooperates today and lets us get this game in! 8* Under Astros/Red Sox

6* Boston (1:05 ET): While the Red Sox will be fighting to keep their season alive over at Fenway Park this afternoon, the Bruins' season is just getting started here at TD North Bank Garden. Actually, they already won their home opener, 4-3 over Nashville on Thursday, an impressive win considering how far the Preds made it in LY's Playoffs (lost to Pittsburgh in Stanley Cup Finals). I like this spot even more for them. It may be early in the season still, but this is not a great situation for Colorado, who is playing its third straight game out East in just a five-day span. While the Avs did surprise in their season opener (beat the Rangers 4-2), they lost Sat afternoon in New Jersey by a score of 4-1. By every objective measure, the Avs were the worst team in the league a year ago.

There's only one way to go and that's "up" for Colorado ins 2017-18. They finished last in the league goals scored, last in goals allowed and had the fewest points in the league (48) w/ a -112 goal differential. Note that was 20 pts fewer than the second worst team in league (Arizona), a shocking margin when you consider the difference between the Yotes' and those teams that just missed making the playoffs was roughly the same. The Avs' goal differential was nearly twice as bad as every other team. So while they can only go "up" this season, keep in mind that's a relative term as the oddsmakers had them pegged for only 69.5 points, which is right where Arizona was at last year. Bottom line is that I don't see the Avs winning twice on this early East Coast swing. 

I thought Boston should have finished w/ a better record last season as they - rather easily - led the league in shots per game differential at +6.4. Only the Kings (who ironically didn't even make the playoffs) even finished close to that number as only one of the other 28 teams was above +3.0 per game. Back on Thursday, they outshot Nashville 32-29 and didn't even allow a shot on goal until the 7:35 mark of the first period. With a couple of key contributors out, the Bruins' younger talent stepped up to handle the goal-scoring load, a great sign moving forward. Something that I find shocking is that Colorado has won 10 of its last 11 visits to Beantown, including a 4-2 win last year (were outshot 31-22). That streak comes to a definitive end today, however. The Avs have allowed 39 shots in both games so far and Tuukka Rask provides a clear edge in goal for the home team. 6* Boston

10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): It is "all over but the shouting," in my opinon, for the New York Yankees. If they couldn't win Game 2, a scenario that saw them knock probable Cy Young winner Corey Kluber out of the game early and take an 8-3 lead, then just how are they going to beat these Indians? I find it highly unlikely that they'll be able to "knock around" Cleveland's Game 3 starter, Carlos Carrasco, who comes in w/ a stupendous 24-8 team start record, including 7-0 his L7. Sure the scene now shifts to Yankee Stadium, but Carrasco is 11-2 on the road this year (13-4 TSR) w/ a 2.65 ERA and 0.997 WHIP, better numbers than he has in his home park. Teams that are off B2B losses in the MLB Playoffs and are a ML dog have only managed to go 13-28 in the next game since '05. I look for the Tribe to complete the sweep here and advance to the ALCS (where they'll likely be matched up against Houston). 

Let us not forget that Cleveland has won 43 of its last 50 games! That includes the 7-0 mark when Carrasco pitches and he's been downright filthy during that time. We're talking a 1.27 ERA and 0.966 WHIP as he's allowed 1 or 0 ER six times. He did lose his lone regular season start against the Yankees, giving up five runs in 5 2/3 IP, but that was at Progressive Field which is where his only non-quality start out of the last seven also took place. The Yankees a formidable offensive team here in the Bronx, averaging 5.6 rpg. But I don't see them "getting off" like they did against Kluber in Game 2. This lineup is a little "too dependent" on the home run in my opinion and it should be a performance somewhere in between the levels of Game 1 and 2 here. It just won't be enough.

Masahiro Tanaka will start for the Yanks. Like Carrasco, he was brilliant in his final regular season start, allowing no runs on three hits in seven innings and striking out 15. (Carrasco came within one out of a CG shutout and had 14 K's vs. Minnesota). But the difference between the two starters here is that Carrasco is more consistent. Case in point, the start before last saw Tanaka give up eight runs. That's more than Carrasco has allowed in his L7 starts combined! Tanaka also allowed seven runs in his first start in September. Granted, both bad efforts came on the road. But there's a lot of pressure here on Tanaka, not just due to the gravity of the situation (season on the line), but also because the Yankees bullpen has been severely taxed twice this week (Wild Card Game and Game 2). By the way, the Cleveland offense averages 5.1 rpg on the road this year, second most in all of baseball. They and the Astros were by far the league's two best road teams. How appropos then that they might meet in the ALCS? 10* Cleveland

8* Seattle (4:05 ET): While there's no debating that the team is much improved, I continue to be surprised by just how much the market has reacted to the Rams' surprising 3-1 (SU) start. This was a team, that when "look ahead lines" came out over the summer, was not supposed to be favored in any of its first 16 games! An injury to Colts QB Andrew Luck resulted in the line flipping for Week 1, however, and the Rams delivered a thunderous 46-9 beatdown in that game to kick off the Sean McVay era. Then, the Rams were favored in their next two games! They lost outright (here at home) to the Redskins in Week 2 though and then were "back doored" as a road favorite in a Thursday night game at San Francisco. An underdog for the first time LW, I took them and they delivered for me w/ an outright win at Dallas. Now they're back to being a favorite and against Seattle no less!

The Seahawks are 2-2 SU, having won both home games and lost both road games. While this is a road game (duh!), note the previous two were both "out East," to Green Bay and Tennessee. At least for this one, they get to stay in the Pacific Time Zone. Last week, it was "Seattle's turn" to blowout the Colts, winning 46-18 on Sunday Night Football. The 46 points scored nearly matched the team's point total from the first three games - combined. They outgained the Colts 477-237, largely on the back of a dominant second half where the defense gave up only a FG (and scored a TD itself) while Russell Wilson accounted for three touchdowns on offense. I hate to "overreact" to one result, but the bottom line here is that - coming into the season - I would never have expected Seattle to be a dog in this game, even though it's on the road. 

Remember that last season saw the Rams start 3-1, only to win just one more game the rest of the way. They're clearly poised for a better finish here in 2017, but I'm unconvinced they can step up in this - arguably their first "high profile" spot of the McVay regime. This is the first time the Rams are favored over the Seahawks since 2011, so while Seattle is 0-5 ATS its last five road games in the rivalry (four of those in St. Louis), that was the Rams "sneaking up on them" as underdogs. They won't be sneaking up here however as I look for the Seattle defensive line to really overwhelm the Rams' offensive line, affecting both the passing and running game. QB Jared Goff is shockingly completing 56% of his throws of 20+ yards, something I do NOT see continuing here against the "Legion of Boom." Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams were only known for a random upset of Seattle every once in a while, but nothing more. He was thankfully disposed and McVay clearly has the team trending in the right direction. But he won't be able to bring the surprise Fisher was known for during his tenure here, at least today. 8* Seattle

10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): It's admittedly a risk to make the worst team in the league your top pick for the week. But as ridiculous as it was for the Browns to be favored two weeks ago on the road at Indianpolis (lost 31-28), it's almost as ridiculous here to find the Jets as a pick 'em or favorite. It was the Jets, not the Browns, that came into the 2017 season as the biggest Super Bowl longshot. Shockingly, however, they have won two straight. First, it was a whitewashing of the Dolphins as 6-pt home underdogs (I took them there!). Then last week brought an overtime win (also at home) over the Jaguars, who were in the unusual spot of having no bye after playing in London (and the Jags were probably feeling a bit "too good" about themselves after a 44-7 win over the Ravens). 

That all being said, I'd still make Cleveland the favorite here. Yes, the team has just one win since the start of last season (1-19 SU overall!). They are only 5-15 ATS during that time as well. Eventually though, things have to turn. I will point out that - so far - the Browns have had to face three of the top 10 pass rushes in the league (all division foes). That's done rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who like most rookies holds onto the ball too long, no favors. But the Jets' pass rush has been virtually non-existent (2nd worst so far) and a run defense that was such a strength last year has allowed 175+ yards in three of four games this year. So don't be surprised to see the Browns have their best rushing day to date here and for Kizer to have his best game as a pro. Defensively, #1 overall draft choice Myles Garrett is set to finally debut. That should provide a big lift to that unit.

Coming into the year, you wouldn't have figured the Jets would be favored in any game, let alone one on the road. This line is currently hovering around a Pick 'em and could conceivably close with Cleveland as a favorite, but my point still stands. The Jets are getting too much respect from the market here, based on their B2B wins and Cleveland being 0-4 SU. The Jets have yet to top 20 points in regulation this season. I don't see them coming close to last week's stunning 256 yards from the run game. Matt Forte won't play again and on the other side of the ball, Kony Ealy is out as well. The Jets did win here last year for their fourth straight win and cover over Cleveland, but I don't see them making it two years in a row. The notion that the Jets are a "public side" in the year 2017 seems quite foolish. 10* Cleveland

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Maybe what the Bengals needed was to just get out of Cincinnati. Or perhaps it was the change at offensive coordinator. Then again, playing the Browns will almost always make you look good. Regardless of what you want to say, the Bengals at least seem to be in better shape now than they were following B2B home losses to start the year where they failed to score a single TD (1st time since '39 that a team started the year w/ B2B home games and failed to score a TD). Bill Lazor, a Chip Kelly disciple, was made the new OC shortly thereafter and the team responded w/ a wire to wire cover at Green Bay (I had 'em!), though they did lose in overtime. Then came the first win of the year, 31-7 at Cleveland last week. Now they return to the "scene of the crime," looking to not only win for the 1st time at home this year, but score their 1st TD here. 

For the record, Buffalo was a team I was higher on than most coming into the season. I have an outstanding ticket on them to finish Over 6.5 wins and w/ them starting 3-1, that ticket is looking pretty good right now. The Bills are one of two teams (Chiefs) to be 4-0 ATS as they've pulled B2B upsets of Denver and Atlanta the last two weeks. But, go inside the boxscore from last week and you'll quickly find out they were quite fortunate to go in and beat the reigning NFC Champs on the road. They were outgained by 110 yards (-10 in first downs) and ran the ball at only 3.3 yards per carry. What won them the game was a +3 turnover margin, one of them (a fumble return) being directly converted into a touchdown. There were also two long (55+ yard!) Steven Hauschka field goals, a byproduct of playing indoors. 

Buffalo may be 3-1 SU, but they've been outgained by 22 yards per game. Compare that to Cincinnati, who is 1-3 SU, but +19 YPG. Going back to last season, the Bills' offense has typically struggled away from home, averaging only 17.9 PPG, which is way down from their 29.3 PPG average at home during the same time. Let's not be quick to forget their 9-3 loss at Carolina in Week 2. The Bengals' offense has scored 55 pts the L2 games and I just can't see them starting the year 0-3 at home. They, like the Bills, were a team that I earmarked for improvement this season as they were far better in 2016 than their 6-9-1 SU record showed. QB Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his pass attempts since Lazor became the OC at 8.7 YPA w/ a 6-0 TD-INT ratio. 8* Cincinnati

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): I thought the Lions were very fortunate to make the playoffs last year as they required EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks and didn't beat a single team w/ a winning record. Now in 2017, they've again produced a winning record via "smoke and mirrors." Sure, they are one play away from being 4-0 straight up, but note that they've beaten the 0-4 Giants and also a Vikings team that was w/o its starting QB and then lost its starting RB to injury. In Week 1, they were also trailing Arizona, who lost stud RB David Johnson to injury! They've faced one of the easier slates of defenses thus far and lead the league in turnover margin (+9) including +6 alone the last two games. The opponent this week (Carolina) is on a 6-2 ATS run as a dog after LW's impressive upset of the Patriots in Foxboro. I expect an outright win here by the Panthers.

The Lions' defense did next to nothing LW, gaining just 251 yards on 62 plays. But, fortunate for them, the Vikings turned it over three times and were not only w/o starting QB Sam Bradford, but RB Dalvin Cook went down with an in-game ACL injury. Note that Cook was the one who scored the Vikings' lone TD in the 14-7 final. The week prior, yes, they came within a yard of beating Atlanta. But they were severly outgained in that game, 428-324. Now, the injury bug has taken a big bite out of them. As many as seven starters are expected out for this game, three of them offensive lineman.  The other four are in the front seven on defense. That's in addition to WR Kenny Golladay and RB Dwayne Washington both already being ruled out. So, needless to say, this is not a healthy team coming into this Week 5 matchup. 

Carolina seemed to be trending down following an ugly 9-3 win over Buffalo and a home loss to New Orleans. But then they shocked everyone by going into Foxboro last week and beating the Patriots 33-30 on field goal as time expired. There was nothing phony about that win either as they outgained the Pats 444-373. They even managed to overcome a -2 turnover margin. Even after allowing 30 pts, the Panthers' defense still leads the NFC in scoring. Unlike Detroit, this team is relatively healthy right now (save for TE Greg Olsen being out). QB Cam Newton made some foolish remarks mid-week, but I don't think they'll be a distraction. The Lions have been outgained this season and following a season in which they were +3 in net upsets, I see the Panthers giving them a dose of their own medicine. Detroit can't run the ball (three games w/ < 100 yds rushing) while Carolina has held three of its four opponents below 80 yds over land. 8* Carolina

8* UNLV (10:45 ET): In last week's analysis on UNLV, I said that this was an undervalued team based on that embarrassing loss to Howard in the season opener. That loss, to a FCS opponent, set a new standard for upsets in College Football as the Rebels were 45-point favorites in the contest. Since then, however, the Rebs have gone 3-0 ATS. They've blown out both Idaho and San Jose State here in the desert and stayed within the number at Ohio State. Saturday night's game will carry a very special meaning at Sam Boyd Stadium considering the tragic events that took place in Las Vegas just last weekend. I expect a very inspired effort here from the home dog and an outright win is NOT out of the realm of possibility. Take the points. 

Looking at the opponent, San Diego State looks to be in a pretty tough spot. They are in off a pretty fortunate 34-28 win over Northern Illinois where they were outgained by nearly 200 yards. They were able to pull out the win, at home mind you, thanks to forcing four turnovers and scoring two non-offensive touchdowns. While this is the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams here, I think it's fair to say that the Aztecs could be inclined to look past UNLV and towards next week's home date w/ MWC standard-bearer Boise State. Even though the Broncos aren't what they "once were," that's a big game for SDSU as they try and claim conference supremacy. For them, this game might just be a look ahead and that makes them very vulnerable as a road favorite.

Last year's meeting w/ SD State did not go well for UNLV as they were held to season lows in points (7), total yards (122) and first downs (9). They lost 26-7 as 15.5-pt road dogs. This year's team has a far more explosive offense (nine starters returned) as they've now hit 40+ points three times (Ohio State game the only exception). Last week, they went for 548 total yards in the 41-13 thrashing of San Jose State that I was on. It was also their third game going for at least that many yards (again OSU the exception). There is good skill position talent here w/ Lexington Thomas at RB and Devonte Boyd at WR. The past three seasons have seen the Rebels go 4-2 - both straight up and against the spread - as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 pts. That includes an outright win at Idaho back in Week 2. 8* UNLV

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): Arizona basically gave a game away to Utah two weeks ago as they outgained the Utes 448-341, but turned the ball over FIVE times, the last one being the most costly. Trailing by six w/ less than three minutes to go, the Wildcats had the ball at the Utah 20-yard line only for QB Brandon Dawkins to fumble the ball away. It was a real "blown opportunity" considering Utah's starting QB left the game in the second quarter due to injury. Under normal circumstances, I might question how the Wildcats respond their next time out, but fortunately here they've had more than a full week off to recover and prepare for Colorado. Rich Rod's team was not particularly good against the spread (2-10) last year, so to me, there's some inevitable progression set to take place. Take the points here.

Colorado was in the Pac 12 Championship Game a year ago, but calls for them to regress in 2017 were almost universal. Sure enough, they've opened conference play 0-2 SU w/ losses to Washington and UCLA. The Pac 12 Title Game rematch vs. UW went worse than expected w/ the Buffs losing 37-10 as 10-pt home dogs. Colorado did score first (first quarter TD), but after that it was all Huskies (37-3). As disappointing a result as that was, last week against UCLA was probably worse. The Bruins came in a tattered bunch, off B2B losses where they'd surrended over 100 points. But even though they moved the ball, the Buffs could never get the lead in the second half and fell 27-23 as touchdown underdogs. 

Last year, Arizona dropped a game in Tucson, 49-24 to Colorado as 16-point dogs. That may seem like a pretty lopsided affair, but Arizona actually had the edge in total yards only to have to constantly settle for field goals, three of which were missed. Note that the Wildcats had won the four prior meetings. What do I feel will be different from last year? How about the Wildcats' defense, which held both Houston and Utah in relative check? After allowing 38.3 points and 469 yards per game last season, those numbers are down to 22.2 and 376 so far this season.  The Colorado offense is in the bottom half of the league offensively in scoring, passing, rushing and total yardage. Arizona has shown it can run the ball this year (200 yards vs. Utah), so look for them to put points on the board here against a Colorado defense that was gashed by the run against Washington and the pass by UCLA. 10* Arizona

    

8* Boston College (7:15 ET): There are a number of games this week where the driving force behind my play is that I don't like the situation at all from the opponent's perspective. Such is the case here w/ Va Tech, who was crushed last week (at home) by Clemson and has an open date on deck. After suffering their first loss of the season in such a high-profile spot, I think it's right to question how the Hokies will respond. Typically, they do respond well (6-1 SU off an ACC loss L3 seasons), but the only other "true" road game they've had to play prior to this was at lowly East Carolina. This is the first time they've had to leave the region and B.C. has the edge of having played an easy game last week (beat Central Mich 28-8) after their own loss to Clemson. I'll take the points here.

Boston College has played a very challenging schedule to this point. They opened w/ a road win over Northern Illinois, which now looks a lot more impressive than it did back then. (NIU won at Nebraska). The next three games were against Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Clemson, all losses, but I though the Eagles competed a lot harder in all three games than the final score indicates. Four turnovers killed them against Wake Forest, turning what was basically an evenly played game into a lopsided final. Then the Clemson game was actually tied 7-7 (on the road!) going into the fourth quarter. So don't let that 34-7 final fool you either. Last week saw B.C. finally get back into the win column w/ a commanding 28-8 win over Central Michigan here in Chesnut Hill. Special teams played a big factor in the win, but they also ran for a season-best 224 yards. Fortunately, freshman A.J. Dillon is fine (left LW's game) and will play here after his first 100-yard game.

While B.C. was able to enter the fourth quarter tied at Clemson before eventually wilting, Va Tech couldn't get within two TD's of the defending National Champs in the second half, even at home. The fact that the Hokies outgained the Tigers is a little misleading even in the face of a -3 turnover margin. They actually trailed by THREE touchdowns for a majority of the second half. I really can't understate what a discouraging loss that had to be for the Hokies as they went in thinking upset w/ the ESPN Gameday cameras present. Now that they've been humbled and have an open date to look forward to, I see them failing to separate here against a team that typically is strong on the defensive side of the ball. 8* Boston College

6* Run Line Chi Cubs (5:30 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Cubs at +1.5. I did the same yday and it turned out the World Series Champs didn't even need the "additional help" that the RL provides as they took Game 1 in shutout fashion, 3-0. Needless to say, dropping that game w/ Stephen Strasburg on the hill and Max Scherzer not pitching until Game 3 in an ominous sign for a franchise that has NEVER advanced past the LDS stage in its history. Even worse, Strasburg was brilliant last night as he recorded 10 K's and allowed only three hits in 7 IP (none until the sixth). But the offense was non-existent as what I predicted - the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks would be able to stand "toe to toe" w/ Strasburg - came to fruition. 

Washington had arguably the National League's best offense for most of the year, but it's production waned as the season wore on, which you could possibly link to the absence of Bryce Harper from the lineup. As mentioned in yday's analysis, Harper got in only 18 AB's since returning from injury. Again, does anyone trust manager Dusty Baker in this spot? The Cubs will now look to take a decided 2-0 edge in the series w/ Jon Lester on the mound Saturday night. Lester, a playoff veteran, closed the regular season w/ B2B strong outings as he allowed just one run in 11 IP. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of his last five starts. While never factoring into either decision (1-1 TSR), Lester posted a 2.79 ERA in his two reg season starts vs. the Nationals. He allowed just four runs on nine hits in 12 2/3 IP overall. Whereas yday was more of a "toss-up," I give the Cubs a pretty clear edge in starting pitching for Game 2. 

Gio Gonzalez gets the call here for Washington. While he posted better numbers than Lester in the reg season, he didn't close as well, giving up nine runs over 9 1/3 innings his last two starts. He also issued eight walks during that time. Three times in his L7 starts, he's allowed at least five runs. While the narrative is that the Cubs aren't as good this year, note that the second half saw them post NL bests in run differential (+127), won-loss record (49-25), runs per game (5.7) and starting pitcher ERA (3.36). They are the better team here. 6* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5)

8* UAB (4:00 ET): Returning from a two-year hiatus, UAB football has struggled early on in 2017, just as you might have expected. Well, they're actually 2-2 SU, but it's been a pretty weak schedule to this point. Two weeks ago, they lost a wild 46-43 game at North Texas as 10.5-pt underdogs. Twice they rallied back from down two scores (30-14 and then 43-29) only to lose "at the gun" on a last-second field goal. After tying the game 43-43, the Blazers allowed UNT return man Evan Johnson to take the ball to nearly midfield, setting up a relatively easy game-winning drive. But they've had a week to recover (off last week) and it's Homecoming at Legion Field this week. This will be a motivated dog. Take the points.

Louisiana Tech has burned me a couple of times this year, last week in particular. Laying almost two touchdowns, they led South Alabama by just a single point going into the fourth quarter. But they would go on to outscore the Jaguars 17-0 in the final 12:17 to "steal" the cover. The final score came w/ 3:17 to go and was a 27-yd TD run, a one-play drive set up by USA turning it over on downs. I'll go ahead and tip my cap to you if you were a La Tech backer in that one, but I'll also question what the Bulldogs may have left here after the late surge vs. South Alabama and the two preceding games both being decided by one point (one win, one loss). Last week was the 1st time they were asked to lay points to a FBS foe this year and this will be the first time they've been asked to do so on the road. There's a much-needed open date next week, which the players may already be looking forward to. 

To clarify something I said at the top, yes, UAB didn't even have a team in 2015 or '16. But they did hold scrimmages last year and Bill Clark, who took over before 2014 (led team to a 6-6 record), remained w/ the program. After opening w/ a 38-7 win over Alabama A&M, they were "blown out" at Ball State (lost 51-31), but actually had the edge in total yds in that game, 504-377. It was a close game that was broken open late due to a kickoff return for a TD and some untimely turnovers. Then came a nice win here at home over Coastal Carolina where the Blazers led the whole way. So this team has really played pretty well, all things considered, in the four games so far. As for La Tech, after three straight tight games and a visit to Mississippi State, I just have to wonder what's "left in the tank." Not enough to cover a double digit spread on the road, in my estimation. 8* UAB

8* Oregon State (4:00 ET): Attrition (no bye weeks) was the most predominantly cited factor for USC inevitably coming up short in its bid for the College Football Playoff, but little did we know it would begin to take hold so early in the season. The "Men of Troy" finally came up short on the scoreboard last Friday, losing up in Pullman to Washington State by a score of 30-27 as five-point favorites. While it may have been their first SU loss of the season, it was by no means the first time they'd struggled and that's reflected in the team's 1-4 mark at the pay window. Really, the only game where they looked "good" was against Stanford. They struggled to get by Western Michigan, Cal and Texas, not pulling away until late against the first two and needing multiple OT's to get by the latter. This looks to be a terrible spot for Clay Helton's team as they are laying a massive number to desperate and winless Oregon State. I'll take the points.

Now Oregon State is 0-5 ATS, tied w/ BYU for the worst such mark nationally. They were blown out last week at home, losing 42-7 to unbeaten Washington. It was their fourth 30+ point loss of the season, which is terrible considering Beavers fans were thinking bowl game coming into the season. Now they'll just take a win. Unfortunately, I don't see them being favored in any game the rest of the way. So the fans will have to settle for a cover here. Sure, they've lost 23 straight visits to the Coliseum and 15 straight on the road overall. But as a dog of more than three touchdowns, they are 3-0 ATS the L3 seasons. Nationwide, teams are 76-45 ATS when getting three touchdowns or more this season. 

USC was down three offensive linemen in last week's loss to Wazzu, so they have an excuse for losing. But I can see the players not taking this game very seriously as there's a much bigger home game on deck against Utah, who may come in undefeated. Two of the three offensive lineman that were out against Washington State may again be out here. We know starting guard Viane Talamaivo won't play as he's done for the year w/ a torn pec. Right tackle Chuma Edoga hasn't practiced all week. Getting back to the pointspread, this will be - easily - the most points they've had to lay in any game in the Clay Helton era. While the players will be justifiably angry after losing last week, I don't think that anger carries over into a blowout here. Not w/ a bigger game looming. Also, Oregon State has to eventually cover, right? 8* Oregon State

8* Appalachian State (3:30 ET): New Mexico State is currently tied w/ SMU for the best ATS record in the nation (5-0) and one of only eight teams left that has covered the pointspread in all of its games (six others all either 4-0 or 3-0 ATS). They call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for a reason and in the case of NMSU, it's certainly helped, as they're only 2-3 SU. Last week, they just barely snuck inside the number against Arkansas, losing 42-24 as 18.5-pt chalk. (Ironically, the Hogs are still an "0-fer" against the number). Admittedly, that was the first time all year that the Aggies were "blown out," but I don't like their chances here against a rested Appalachian State team that came into the season favored to win the Sun Belt. Consider that in LY's reg season finale, App State beat NMSU 37-7 as 19-pt ROAD favorites. Not enough has changed in 10 months time to justify this price swing. Lay the points. 

App State has lost twice already, but both times were to Power 5 foes. They were a trendy underdog call in the season opener at Georgia, but lost there 31-10. That loss was followed by a pair of expected wins over Savannah State and Texas State. Then came a rare home game vs. a P5 foe, Wake Forest, and the game was close. Unfortunately though, despite a 494-344 edge in total yards, the Mountaineers came out on the wrong end of a 20-19 final (did cover as 5.5-pt dogs, however). They had a 27-18 first down edge as well, but what would have been a game-winning field goal (w/ five seconds left) was blocked. I have to think the players have been "chomping at the bit" (to get back on the field) following such a close call and to me, NMSU is in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Appalachian State was playing for a share of the regular season SBC Title in last year's meeting and took no prisoners, scoring the game's first 17 and final 20 points. They outgained the Aggies 604-240! Most of the key contributors from that blowout victory returned for this season. Granted, New Mexico State is much improved this season and close losses to Arizona State and Troy now look even better considering those teams have gone on to beat Oregon and LSU, respectively. But the bye week was big for App State as they can prepare for the NMSU offense, which is almost entirely reliant on the pass. From a scheduling standpoint, this is not a great spot for the underdog as it's their second straight road game and fourth in six games. Meanwhile, it's Homecoming in Boone and I think the alumni are rewarded w/ a big win and cover Sat afternoon. 8* Appalachian State

8* Kent State (3:30 ET): I absolutely hate this spot for Northern Illinois. Yes, they did outgain San Diego State last week (417-263), but a -4 turnover margin ultimately doomed them to a 34-28 loss. SDSU had TWO non-offensive TD's, one an INT return, the other a kickoff return to start the game. NIU did at least leave w/ the cash though, covering as 9.5-pt underdogs. That improves them to 4-0 ATS and the week prior they went to Nebraska and won straight up, 21-17 despite a rather significant DISadvantage in total yds. Three of their four games thus far have been decided by six points or fewer and they've been a dog all three times against FBS competition. That's what makes this line "look a little large" from my perspective. Off B2B wild non-conference road games, I'm not sure this MAC opener will have their full attention, even on Homecoming weekend. Kent State may not be good, but they're at least battle-tested (played at both Clemson & Louisville already!) and that should have them prepared to stay within the number. Take the points.

While NIU has played mostly close games, Kent has mostly been on the WRONG end of some blowouts. They lost to Clemson & L'ville by a combined score of 98-6, though they did actually cover against the latter thanks to a 42-point spread! They've also been shutout by a much improved Marshall team, 21-0. I should point out, however, that all three teams that blew out the Golden Flashes are all higher ranked (in my own power ratings) compared to Northern Illinois. Last week, Kent lost 27-13 at Buffalo and like NIU, they outgained the opposition 444-377. It was a game that saw only ONE TD scored in the second half (by Buffalo) and the Bulls also benefited in the 1st half by getting to start a drive inside the Kent 10-yd line.

These teams met in LY's regular season finale w/ NIU winning 31-21 as a six-point road favorite. As you can see, it's been a pretty significant swing in the market to now have them favored by over three touchdowns, even after factoring in the change in venue. Over the L3 seasons, Kent St has covered both times it has been a road dog of +21.5 to +31. Furthermore, nationwide, we've seen teams getting at least 21 points go 76-45 ATS this season. It's not as if Northern Illinois' possesses a dominant offense. They are averaging only 26.7 PPG and 5.1 yards per play w/ opponents topping both of those averages. Three years ago, which is the last time Kent State came to DeKalb, they easily covered a similar spread as they lost only 17-14. 8* Kent State

6* LA Dodgers (10:35 ET): It seems as if Arizona is a VERY trendy underdog coming into this LDS matchup with the Dodgers. And why wouldn't they be? After all, they've swept the Dodgers the last two times they faced them and LA really stumbled down the stretch, losing 22 of its last 35 games. However, clearly, this Dodgers team is nowhere near as bad as they played during that infamous 1-15 stretch, just like they probably weren't as good as their 91-36 start to the season. It was a simple "market correction" that occurred in late August, nothing more. An extraordinarily high Game 1 price isn't about to scare me away though as tonight's pitching matchup is every bit the mismatch the oddsmakers are making it out to be. Look for the home team to take Game 1.

Arizona may have won six straight times over Dodger Blue, but there are numerous concerns for Game 1. For starters (pun intended!), Taijuan Walker hasn't been very good of late as his ERA and WHIP over his L3 starts are 5.27 and 1.683 respectively. When you combine that with the fact that the D'backs are one of baseball's lightest hitting road teams, it's definitely not good. Arizona ranked 28th in the regular season in team batting average (.235) away from home, just ahead of San Diego and Texas. They were 24th in OBP and 23rd in slugging. Thus, the fact they ranked 16th in runs scored on the road should be considered somewhat fortunate. As you may know, Dodgers Stadium was #1 in MLB all year long in run suppression w/ visitors averaging only 3.3 rpg here. Walker does have a 3-0 TSR against the Dodgers in 2017, but still, I think the team would rather have Zack Greinke (pitched Wild Card Game) or "Dodgers-killer" Robbie Ray (had to come on in relief in WC Game) starting in this spot.

Kershaw turned in another Cy Young caliber season w/ a 2.31 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in 27 starts. The team went 23-4 in those 27 starts, so this is definitely the guy they want on the mound in this spot. Note that when Arizona swept the Dodgers twice in 10 days back in late August/early September, they did not face Kershaw, who was 2-0 against them in the regular season (allowed 1 run on 6 hits in 15 1/3 IP w/ 19-3 KW rate). The Dodgers finished the regular season w/ the best home record in all of baseball (57-24) and that includes a 13-2 record when priced above -250 on the money line. They are 27-5 in that range the L3 seasons, the majority of those games coming when Kershaw starts. As for Arizona, they were just 1-3 as a road dog of +175 to +250 in the reg season and 7-21 in that range the L3 seasons. I'm not ready to call this series for the Dodgers, but w/ the best pitcher in the National League going at home, they'll take Game 1 and avenge those two sweeps. 6* LA Dodgers

8* Under D'backs/Dodgers (10:35 ET): The combination of Kershaw, Dodger Stadium being #1 in MLB for visitor run suppression, Arizona's rather dramatic dropoff offensively on the road and the O/U itself also have me on the Under in this Game 1 matchup. As discussed in the Dodgers' writeup, Kershaw is a pitcher that needs no introduction. He was 2-0 w/ a 0.59 ERA in two starts vs. the D'backs this year and has a 2.55 ERA in 26 career starts against them. He led the National League in wins and ERA while ranking 2nd in WHIP. He was eighth in strikeouts, but also threw basically 30 fewer innings than the majority of those above him. Dodger Stadium saw an average of only 8.2 rpg scored (total) during the regular season w/ visitors averaging a MLB low 3.3 rpg. Ten times in 14 home starts, Kershaw allowed 2 ER or fewer this season. 

I picked Arizona over Colorado in the NL Wild Card Game largely due to the fact the game was in Arizona and both of those teams have dramatic home vs. road splits. Well, now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" for the D'backs as they hit the road. Only Colorado w/ its greatly park-aided effect averaged more runs per game at home this year than did the D'backs. But on the road, Arizona drops from 5.7 rpg to 4.4 rpg, and really they are fortunate to even average that. They ranked 28th in the regular season in team batting average (.235) away from home, just ahead of San Diego and Texas. They were 24th in OBP and 23rd in slugging. Thus, the fact they ranked 16th in runs scored on the road should be considered somewhat fortunate. If there is one "silver lining" for them here, however, it is that they allowed only 3.9 rpg as the road team this year. That was tied w/ the Dodgers for best in the National League. 

The number here is also key w/ 7 being a key number and we have an extra half-run to play with. If this game goes as I believe it will, with Kershaw dealing and the Dodgers winning, then there's a very good chance they won't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Not having to play that last half-inning can often been the difference between a game staying Under or going Over. Bottom line is I expect the Dodgers, led by Kershaw, to win a low-scoring game here. 8* Under D'backs/Dodgers

8* BYU (10:15 ET): You may recall that I opened my analysis of last week's BYU game with the simple statement "BYU stinks." Early on, it appeared as if I might have to eat my words as the Cougars jumped out to a 21-7 lead on Utah State. But they quickly conceded it and ended up losing 40-24 despite substantial edges in both total yardage (396-288) and first downs (20-14). The problem was SEVEN turnovers, two of them interceptions that were returned for touchdowns (basically the difference in the game). Shockingly, BYU is now 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS and that one SU win came against a FCS school (Portland State). But at least the offense finally showed signs of life last week. The result of the poor start is they are now sizable home underdogs for the annual tussle w/ Boise State. I like the points here as BYU can't be as bad as they've looked previously. 

Boise State also isn't up to par compared to past editions. They come in at 2-2 SU and off a bye week. Last we saw them, they were hammered (on the blue turf!) by Virginia, losing 42-23 as 2 TD favorites. It was their worst home loss since '01! Really, the turning point in this season came in the second game when they blew a 3 TD lead in the 4Q at Washington State and ended up losing in triple overtime. In between the two losses, they failed to cover at home against New Mexico. QB Brett Rypien still doesn't look right after getting injured in that loss to Wazzu. He's completing only 60 percent of his passes and has ZERO touchdown passes. Keep in mind that last year he threw for 3,646 yards w/ a 24-8 TD-INT ratio. He hasn't had much help mind you, whether it be a weaker than normal rushing attack, a suspect offensive line or drops from the receivers. Of the 27 first down plays, Boise State ran against Virginia, they gained two or fewer yards on over half of them. 

BYU has been a dog in all four losses, so maybe it's a bit premature to "ring the alarm" in Provo. Still, the lack of offense was concerning against LSU, Utah and Wisconsin. But then, as mentioned above, there were signs against Utah State. The Boise State defense has already surrendered 40+ points twice this year. These teams have met every year since 2012 w/ the home team going 5-0 SU. But two of Boise's wins, including the one last year, were by a single point. The Broncos may be coming off a bye, but they have a big game w/ San Diego State on deck, so perhaps this one won't have their full attention. It will for BYU though as they've got a date at Mississippi State coming up next, so a loss here and a six-game losing streak is a real possibility. Them being a home dog of this size is very rare and the bye hasn't helped Boise State in the past as they're just 1-3 ATS the last four times playing w/ two or more weeks rest. 8* BYU

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Cubs at +1.5. An injury to a pitcher the caliber of Max Scherzer would cripple most teams, but for the Nats, having Stephen Strasburg is a nice "fall back." Scherzer was originally slated to start the opener of the LDS, but a hamstring injury suffered in his last reg season start paved the way for Strasburg to get the honors instead. Again, this is a nice luxury to have considering, they are 7-0 in Strasburg's previous seven starts w/ the pitcher turning in a 0.76 and 0.797 WHIP. But this is the Cubs that they're facing in what I feel is the most evenly matched of the four LDS. Note four of those seven wins w/ Strasburg on the hill came by exactly one run. I'll say the Cubs do no worse than one-run loss here. 

The Game 1 starter for the Cubs, Kyle Hendricks, is no slouch in his own right. He posted a 0.96 ERA his L3 starts and over his L7, he has a 2.00 ERA and 1.022 WHIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of his 11 starts since returning from injury just after the All-Star Break. What's even more impressive is that he's allowed 0 or 1 ER in eight of those 11 outings! In five career starts vs. Washington, Hendricks has a 2.67 ERA. He faced them once this year and allowed only three runs on five hits, in seven innings of work. His final regular season outing came in St. Louis and there he tossed five shutout innings of four-hit ball. Even more encouraging is that his nine strikeouts were a season-best. Nine of Hendricks' 24 starts this year have ended up as one-run games, a result we'll take either way here. Furthermore, he's been a better pitcher on the road this year w/ a 2.83 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 11 starts. 

The Cubs aren't underdogs often; in fact, it happened just 21 times in the regular season. Four of those came in their lone visit to the Nation's Capital, a series that took place back in late June. They wound up splitting the four games. The Cubs are an excellent road team as they outscored opponents by 0.8 rpg as the visitors. Very quietly, this team finished the regular season on a 23-10 tear, making them arguably the hottest team on the National League side of the draw. There's a lot of pressure here on the Nats, who have NEVER advanced past the LDS in franchise history. Not only is Scherzer's health a big question mark, but Bryce Harper has had only 18 at-bats since returning from his own long injury absence. I don't need to tell Cubs' fans that trusting Dusty Baker this time of year can be wishful thinking. To me, Strasburg is "due" to lose one and this Game 1 matchup is a lot more even than it's been priced by the oddsmakers. 8* Run Chi Cubs (+1.5)

10* Connecticut (7:00 ET): UConn has the dishonorable distinction of being the worst ATS team in the country over the last 3+ seasons. They were a terrible 10-26-1 vs. the number in the Bob Diaco era, which - mercifully - lasted only three seasons. This year, Randy Edsall's return to Storrs was met w/ optimism. After all, it was Edsall that led the Huskies to a Fiesta Bowl appearance back in 2010 (before departing for his own unsuccessful tenure at Maryland). Unfortunately for Edsall, it's been more of the same as UConn has started this season 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) including an incredibly bad beat LW at SMU. Early in the 4th quarter, they were tied w/ the 19-point favorite Mustangs, only to allow three touchdowns in a 7:22 span. Even worse is how those 3 TD's were allowed. They came after a blocked punt, turning the ball over on downs deep in their own territory and then a fumbled kick return. If I sound bitter, well, it's because I had the Huskies.

Memphis is off its own disheartening loss. The Tigers played a rescheduled date w/ UCF last week and were buried 40-13 as short road underdogs. It was a game Memphis desperately wanted to win (have now lost 10 straight to the Golden Knights), but instead were beaten soundly thanks to turning the ball over four times and giving up 600+ total yards. Considering it was the second time the Tigers flew into Orlando (game was originally postponed due to Hurricane Irma), the result was especially disheartening. 

So, the big question is who is more likely to be affected by last week's result? Well, I know that I wouldn't want to be the team laying two touchdowns on the road, that's for sure. Memphis might be 17-3 SU as a favorite the L3 seasons, but they are only 8-11-1 ATS. They've followed that pattern this season by failing to cover both games in which they were favored, against LA Monroe and S Illinois. Admittedly, those were large spreads. But so is this one and rarely are the Tigers asked to lay this many points away from the Liberty Bowl. They were DD chalk on the road just one time last year (Tulane) and failed to cover. These teams have met only twice before and each time the home side won in a blowout. I just have to think that after all this time, UConn is due for a cover as Edsall is desperate to breath life back into this program. 10* Connecticut.

8* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): Tough early season spot for the Flyers here as they are playing in the second of B2B road games, out on the West Coast. They did win last night, 5-3 in San Jose, but two straight upsets seems unlikely. After all, this was not a playoff team a year ago as they finished fifth in the Metro, well behind the top four. There were struggles on both ends of the ice w/ the team ranking fifth from the bottom in save percentage (.901). Brian Elliott 32 saves in his debut last night, but it was a hat trick from Wayne Simmonds that was the real key to victory. Don't look for Simmonds to go off again here however and I'm not sure Elliott can be as stout for a second straight game. This is the Kings' season opener and I feel they come into 2017-18 somewhat undervalued.

LA didn't make the playoffs either last season, turning in one of their worst campaigns in some time. It was actually the second time in three seasons that they failed to make the playoffs and they ranked second to last in the West w/ only 127 even-strength goals. Both Anaheim and Edmonton have clearly passed them in the Pacific pecking order and offense again figures to be somewhat of a concern this year. But the team is always one of the league-leaders in puck possession and we should see far better goaltening this year w/ a full season of Jonathan Quick. Remember that this club is just three years removed from winning its second Stanley Cup in three years. Nine players remain from those two championship teams. Both Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty should enjoy bounce back years.

The Flyers were not a good road team last season, losing 27 of 41 games and getting outscored by nearly a full goal per game. So the likelihood of them winning two straight to start the season seems small, especially out on the West Coast. The team's record is a losing one when playing w/out rest the L2 seasons. They are also just 16-24 SU coming off a win by 2+ goals. Note that three of their five goals last night, including two from Simmonds, came via the power play. I feel this team lacks depth at the forward position and Claude Giroux is coming off the worst statistical season of his career (career-lows in both goals and points). Whomever ends up in goal for the Flyers here (Elliott or Michael Neuvirth) won't be as good as Quick, who still posted a .922 save percentage at home LY in what was considered a "down year." 8* Los Angeles

10* Under Patriots/Buccaneers (8:25 ET): The "sky is falling" in Foxboro as the Super Bowl Champs are 2-2 SU w/ the worst defense in the league. Consider that they are averaging 32.2 PPG, yet have those two losses to their credit. Matt Patricia's defense has been every bit as bad as it's been made out to be, giving up 33 or more points three times and an average of 424 yards per game. Ironically, the one time they did hold an opponent under 33 pts was on the road against New Orleans (won 36-20). All four Patriots games have gone Over the total and as a result, this is the highest O/U line to date for one of their games. The Bucs have gone Over in B2B games as well, but none of their first three games (bye Week 1) would have gone Over this number. I'm on the Under here as this is the highest O/U line for any NFL game this season.

New England's early season "struggles" haven't gone unnoticed by the oddsmakers in Vegas as for the first time in a long time, they are no longer listed as the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl. Even though this is a short week, I expect the pride of the defense to kick in and the level of play to improve. Tampa Bay averages just 84.7 rush yards per game (26th overall) and even though RB Doug Martin is expected back Thursday, look for Bill Belichick to force the TB offense into being rather one-dimensional. Note that the Bucs' offense isn't really as good as it may appear. The Week 1 win over Chicago was greatly aided by turnovers as all three TD drives were 35 yards or less.

Tampa Bay's defense could be "up against it" w/o two starting linebackers, one of them Lavonte David. Without both, they still managed to win last week, but that was against an inept Giants team and it took a field goal on the final play. They had just 16 points midway through the fourth quarter. As I'd anticipated, WR Desean Jackson has been an overrated acquisition w/ just nine catches in three games. Defenses should thus still be able to double team Mike Evans. I just feel that with so much discussion on the Patriots defense going into this game, they will "rise up" with their best performance to date. Many times, we see the offenses struggle in these Thursday night affairs. While the Patriots will still manage to score plenty, it won't be enough to push the final score Over this lofty total. 10* Under Patriots/Buccaneers

8* NC State (8:00 ET): With this game taking place in Raleigh and NC State's homefield advantage factored in, I have the two teams basically rated even. Thus, there's some real value in taking the home dog. Louisville comes in ranked #17 overall as they are 4-1 SU w/ the lone loss coming to defending champ Clemson. They had a monster 676-80 edge in total yards last week vs. overmatched Murray State and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson. But they're only 1-4 ATS as they were 40+ point favorites the L2 weeks. NC State is also 1-4 ATS, but has the most impressive win of these two teams, having beaten Florida State on the road, 27-21 as 11-point dogs. Last week, they were backdoored by Syracuse, giving up a late TD. But all that did is make the game seem closer than it really was and that helps to explain the value here. Take the points. 

NC State came into this season with lofty expectations, expecting to challenge the "big 3" in the ACC Atlantic: Clemson, Florida State and L'ville. They've already passed one major test, that being Florida State on the road. Granted, the Seminoles are not as strong as their preseason projection (due to injury to their starting QB). But that shouldn't hurt the Wolfpack's standing. Their loss took place in the season opener, against South Carolina, but that game saw them finish w/ a 504-236 edge in total yards (29-12 edge in first downs). They got back on track w/ a 37-20 win over a much improved Marshall team and haven't looked back since. In a clear "sandwich" spot LW, I was impressed w/ how they jumped all over Syracuse (led 26-7 at half). They scored on each of their first five possessions and for a fourth consecutive game didn't turn the ball over. The loss of RB Dakwa Nelson for the season hurts, but I expect this offense to still be able to move the ball.

A big reason why I expect this offense to continue to roll is QB Ryan Finley (a senior), who has yet to throw an INT this season and is completing 72.1% of his attempts (ranks 7th nationally). Defensively, this team has an excellent front seven, led by Bradley Chubb's 12 tackles for loss. The back end gets strengthened by the return of Dexter Wright. NC State is 4-3 SU all-time when facing a ranked foe at home on a Thursday night. This is a huge revenge spot as they lost at Louisville last year, 54-13, as 19-pt dogs. They trailed 44-0 at halftime, but it was also a horrible spot for the 'Pack as they were playing the 2nd of B2B road games and had just lost a heartbreaker to Clemson in overtime. This is a much better team this year (17 returning starters) and they're at home for a 2nd straight week. Since LY's fast start, the L'ville offense has failed to produce when stepping up in competition (scored only 21 pts vs. Clemson). 8* NC State

10* Under Yankees/Indians (7:35 ET): This LDS matches up the top two teams in run differential from the regular season. Cleveland is the current betting favorite to win the World Series, thanks to a starting rotation that ranks among the greatest EVER (30.0 WAR!). They closed the regular season on an insane 41-7 run, at one point winning 22 games in a row (AL record). Thanks in large part to that all-time great starting rotation, the Tribe gave up the fewest runs in baseball this year - 564 - with only one other team (Dodgers) even within 100 of that number! Not surprisingly then, the Under cashed plenty for this team (94-61-7) including a 48-31-2 mark here at Progressive Field where they allow just 3.5 rpg. No team went Under more in the regular season, both overall and at home. Trevor Bauer may be a "surprising" Game 1 starter to some, but over the last two months he's allowed 2 ER or fewer in 8 of 11 starts.

The Yankees fell behind 3-0 in the first inning of the Wild Card Game against Minnesota w/ starter Luis Severino recording all of ONE out! But thanks to the bullpen, they were able to rally and win rather easily, 8-4. Thus, I'm not really concerned about Sonny Gray's somewhat shaky Yankees' tenure. Note he still posted a 3.55 ERA in the regular season. Manager Joe Girardi has no reason NOT to go to the bullpen early if necessary and has already shown he has a "quick hook." As for the Yanks' vaunted offense, it was held to two runs or less in five of seven regular season meetings w/ Cleveland this year.

We're dealing with arguably the top two bullpens in the game here. That's huge. As long as neither starter "blows up" and has a bad inning, I just can't see either team scoring a lot of runs here in Game 1 or the series as a whole. As far as a bad inning goes, both managers aren't likely to allow such a thing to occur given the bullpens at their disposal. We saw what the Yankees' bullpen is capable of in the Wild Card game, holding the Twins to just one run while recording 26 outs. Opposing hitters went just 3 for 39 against Aroldis Chapman in September w/ no runs scored and 17 strikeouts. Cleveland's bullpen was slightly better in the regular season (2.58 ERA, 1.010 WHIP at home) and now gets even stronger w/ the additions of Danny Salazar and Mike Clevinger. Over the L7 games, the Indians held opponents to a .221 batting average and 2.6 rpg. The Yankees' have been just as stingy though (also 2.6 rpg allowed) and opponents have an even lower batting average of .188! Bauer was 2-0 vs. the Yankees this year w/ a 1.38 ERA. 10* Under Yankees/Indians

8* Arizona (8:05 ET): Compared to the AL Wild Card matchup, the perception here is a far more "even" battle is set to take place. But with the game at Chase Field and Zack Greinke pitching, it's a massive edge to the D'backs, which is not properly reflected in the pricing. Consider that Arizona outscored its visitors by the widest margin of all home teams in the National League. The big key here is that unlike Coors Field in Colorado, visiting teams do not typically get to share in the offensive outbursts regularly seen from the home team at Chase Field. That's not good news for a Colorado offense which has always had its fair share of problems away from the high altitude of Denver and only averaged 4.1 rpg on the road in the regular season. Now they must deal w/ Greinke, who has always been an outstanding home pitcher throughout his career.

Though he was a little shaky at the end, particularly the 9.22 outing vs. Miami where he allowed eight runs, 2017 marked another strong regular season from Greinke. He finished in the top six in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP among all NL starters. I mentioned earlier that he's always been a dominant pitcher at home, whether we're talking previous stints in KC, Milwaukee and Los Angeles, or the current one here. At Chase Field this season, he posted a 13-1 WL record w/ a 2.87 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 18 starts (15-3 TSR). He was a major reason why the D'backs allowed 231 runs LESS than LY's 93-loss team! In fact, the D'backs quietly allowed a fewer number of runs this year than everybody but the Indians and Dodgers. The rotation's WAR led the NL and Greinke is the best of the lost. Assuming he gets the requisite amt of run support here, Greinke should notch yet another home victory.

Colorado allowed almost 100 runs more than Arizona in the regular season and easily the most among the 10 playoff teams. A lot of that can be attributed to the "Coors Effect," but the most suspect of the 10 starting rotations left can't really be trusted right now either. Jon Gray is the choice for Wednesday and while his numbers may look decent, his ERA & WHIP are only 4.06 and 1.352 on the road. Over the next 48 hours, you may hear a lot about how he did win twice here at Chase Field during the reg season, but neither of those starts came opposite Greinke, who makes the margin for error so slim. These teams finished w/ identical road records (41-40), but the difference was Arizona going 52-29 at home. That's why this game is being played at Chase Field and not Coors. Only the Dodgers won more games at home than the D'backs this year. This will be Greinke's SIXTH time facing the Rockies' lineup this year, so he should know the individual hitters well. With a significant edge in starting pitching and a dominant homefield edge, I see no reason to go against the D'backs in this spot. 8* Arizona

10* Ga Southern (8:00 ET): You can say that - in just a year's time - perception has swung radically in the Sun Belt as LY saw Georgia Southern check in as an eight-point ROAD FAVORITE against Arkansas State. They lost that game outright, 28-27, and would go on to finish only 4-4 SU in SBC play while getting outgained by 64.1 YPG. Arkansas State, who at the time of LY's matchup was 0-4 SU and coming off a loss to FCS school Central Arkansas, rallied to win eight of its final nine games (including bowl) and shared the league crown w/ Appalachian State. Needless to say, it appears that we now have just as much value on the dog as we did last year. Though 19-4 SU in Sun Belt road games the L6 seasons, this will mark only the third time that ASU has been favored (on the road) the L3 seasons. Take the points.

Last year's game saw Georgia Southern lead for all but 2:14 of actual game time. They blew a 26-17, giving up the GW TD pass w/ just nine seconds remaining. While 2nd year HC Tyson Summers has just 10 starters back from that team, certainly those that were involved will remember the game and be out for revenge. The Eagles are 9-3 SU in conf home games since joining the Sun Belt. After somewhat veering away from the option last season (which I thought was a mistake), they are more invested in it this season and following B2B games w/ 233+ rush yards, I expect them to find success running the ball in this matchup. Arkansas State's run defense was just gashed for 314 yards by SMU in their last game. It was the second time this year they allowed at least 225 yds on the ground.

Both teams have dropped a pair of road games to Power 5 opponents. Arkansas State opened by losing at Nebraska, 43-36, a game they never trailed by more than the pointspread of 14.5 (I had 'em!). Two Saturdays ago, they were beaten 44-21 by SMU, allowing nearly 600 total yards of offense. In between was a 48-3 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff w/ a +5 turnover margin. Georgia Southern has lost at both Auburn (cashed them there!) and Indiana, however, also lost to FCS New Hampshire. So they're 0-3 SU and desperate here. This team got only five home LY, which helps explain the decline, and this will be only the fourth time in three years that they've been getting points in Statesboro. They ended last season on a high note by upsetting Troy in the regular season finale. The only other time they were a home dog LY was against App State, who clearly was the best team in the Sun Belt. Consider that ASU QB Justice Hansen is not 100% right now (back) and the Red Wolves' run game ranks only 10th in the SBC at 120.7 YPG.  10* Georgia Southern

8* Under Maple Leafs/Jets (7:05 ET): These teams have combined to go Over the total in TEN straight matchups w/ half of those going into extra time. But don't look for these two Canadian foes to "go North" of the total this time around. Toronto comes into this season with as much optimism as the franchise has seen in many, many years. On the back of young stars such as Auston Matthews, they jumped from 69 to 95 points last season and even made the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Considering they should improve upon LY's dreadful 1-8 record in shootouts, this team has a legit shot of winning the Atlantic. As for Winnipeg, they are in a tough division, but hope that finishing LY on a seven-game win streak will carry over into this season. Take the Under. 

It's not surprising to me that the Jets were an Over team last season (43-34-5 overall) as they ranked 7th in goals scored, but 27th in goals allowed. I expect those two averages to even out some in 2017-18. With the goals allowed side of the ledger, a better backup goalie (Steve Mason) was brought into the fold and defenseman Dmitry Kulikov was signed to bolster depth. Tonight, however, it will be Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes. Hellebuyck made just one start vs. Toronto last year and struggled, stopping only 32 of 37 shots. Yet, still, he finished w/ a 2.89 GAA for the year. I expect the Jets' overall team save percentage (only .899!) to improve this year. On offense, there is plenty of talent on hand, but it's an inconsistent bunch. 

Toronto must now deal w/ the weight of expectations for the 1st time in a long time. It's a talented team offensively, but I have to wonder if they will plateau here in 2017-18. Last season, they scored 49 more even strength goals compared to the previous campaign, thus making it difficult to produce another year to year increase. The team continues to give up its fair share of shots, but fortunately Frederik Andersen had a .921 save percentage in non-conference games last year. Only once in the previous two seasons did oddsmakers hang a 6.0 for the O/U line in a Maple Leafs road game. That number also only appeared six times in Jets' home games during the same timeframe. It's too early in the season to expect a high-scoring affair. 8* Under Maple Leafs/Jets

10* Run Line Minnesota (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Twins at +1.5. Of the 10 playoff entrants, Minnesota is certainly the least likely. This was a 100+ loss team a year ago, but thanks to better defense and "front-end" starters, they saw their win total increase by an astronomical 26 games in 2017. No one is going to give them much of a chance Tuesday though and the fact that they're matched up w/ the popular Yankees means they're not going to be given much of a chance, let alone an endorsement. Then you have the fact that when they visited Yankees Stadium last month, they were swept. But the size of the money line has created a scenario where the run line is a very viable option here. The Twins were a great road team during the regular season (44-37) and have their top pitcher going Tuesday. 

Ervin Santana went 16-8 in 33 starts during the regular season (19-14 TSR) and was actually more effective on the road. He has a 2.71 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 17 road starts w/ a won-loss record of 10-3 (11-6 TSR). He closed the regular season w/ four consecutive starts of allowing 3 ER or fewer, one of them here at Yankee Stadium where he was a hard-luck 2-1 loser. (I'll take that result this go around!). He even held the red-hot Indians scoreless for five innings his last time out, though the Twins' bullpen eventually wilted. Since the start of August, Santana has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 10 of 12 starts. (He's also taken the loss just ONCE during this time). So he should take care of his part of the equation. As for the Twins offense, well, they average 4.9 rpg on the road.

The Yankees led baseball's power renaissance this season w/ 241 HR's. (Interestingly though, seven of the top 10 teams in HR's hit in the reg season DIDN'T make the playoffs). They were an admittedly dominant home team, scoring 5.6 rpg at Yankee Stadium and outscoring foes by 1.7 rpg! Based on run differential, they actually underperformed in terms of wins by about 11 wins. That "underperformance" was owed to an 18-26 record in one-run games. To me, a one-run game is the most likely occurrence here. Starter Luis Severino might have been the best American League pitcher not named "Sale" or "Kluber" down the stretch as the team has won each of his previous five starts. Interestingly though, he lasted only three innings when he faced the Twins last month and gave up three runs, all of them in the third, which took him 46 pitches to get out of. That's definitely worth noting. This will be his 1st postseason start (third for Santana) and don't forget this is pitcher just one year removed from an 0-8 season. Counting on Aaron Judge slugging home runs doesn't sound like a recipe for success this time of year. The Twins were tied for 2nd in net units (+15.3) during the regular season. 10* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)