10* Under Jets/Flames (9:05 ET):  As I expected, Winnipeg didn't put up much of a fight last night in Edmonton, dropping the game 3-1.  I was on the Oilers there and in my analysis for the game, I was sure to point out that the Jets have been pretty dreadful on the road this season, particularly in the goals allowed department.  Of course, no team in the league is worse when it comes to allowing goals than is Calgary, who gives up 3.4 per game. Yet, I'm on the Under in this matchup of Western Canadian also-rans as this is a battle of the two worst power plays in the entire league. So we shouldn't have to worry about two of the worst penalty killing units the NHL has to offer. In fact, the two teams combined to go 0 for 6 w/ the man advantage in the season's first meeting, a 3-1 Winnipeg win that stayed Under the total. This one will too. Take the Under.

The Jets have had three big offensive games over their last eight contests overall and all three came at home. They've totaled just seven goals in the other five games and were held to only one in last night's loss in Edmonton.  They did have 45 shots on goal, a positive sign, but that's a number I simply don't see them repeating here. Yes, they've been at 36 or higher each of the last three games, but for the season they average just 29.0 per game.  Meanwhile, the club's horrid goaltending has to start improving right?  They allowed only 21 shots last night, yet three went in for the Oilers. The team's save percentage this season is a woeful .886, which is near the bottom of the league right with Calgary.  The likely starter here is Michael Hutchinson and he did come in and stop all seven shots he saw in the third period last night.

Calgary will likely turn to Kari Ramo, their best option between the pipes, and lately he's been hot w/ a .930 save percentage his L4 starts. At home, he's won seven straight times thanks in part to a solid 2.10 goals against average.  The Flames are a much better team at home than on the road, but I'm calling for a low-scoring game all around here as the Under is 5-2 this season when Winnipeg is playing the second of B2B games.  10* Under Jets/Flames

9* Arizona (9:05 ET): On paper, this is hardly an attractive matchup as two of the league's perennial "bad" teams square off. However, Toronto is definitely better than they were last year and Arizona is actually in playoff contention by virtue of being in the horrible Pacific Division.  Incredibly, the Coyotes are one point out of a playoff spot right now and I expect this to keep them highly motivated moving forward.  Meanwhile, motivation may start to become an issue for the Maple Leafs, who are buried at the bottom of the Atlantic, despite having just one point fewer than the 'Yotes. Go w/ the home team in this one.

All of a sudden, the Leafs can't stop scoring.  They are off a pair of shocking wins, 5-0 over Los Angeles (at home) and then last night, 7-4 at Colorado.  But can you really see them making it three consecutive wins as an underdog on the money line? I can't. Especially because this is the second game of a back to back, a situation the team has REALLY struggled in all season. They are 0-7 SU in that role, including a shutout loss to Minnesota their last time in it. But the offensive numbers are almost certain to go down (they average just 2.2 gpg on the road) as is the team tonight.

Arizona can score too; they had nine goals in two games, but lost them both due to shoddy goaltending. That was before a 1-0 win over the Islanders on Saturday though, which really impressed me.  Also impressive is the team's 6-1-1 run here at home.  Louis Dominigue offers some promise in goal (25 saves Saturday) and if it's not him, then it will be Anders Lindback, who has a 2.08 career GAA vs. the Maple Leafs. Arizona is obviously rested here and that could be the difference in this one, plus they did go to Toronto and win earlier this season, 4-3, despite getting only 24 shots on goal.  9* Arizona

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  Rarely do my personal power ratings suggest the 76ers are a good value play, but they do here as a Memphis team that has simply underperformed all year comes to town. The Grizzlies have a disappointing record to begin with, just 15-14 straight up, but their YTD point differential suggests that they should actually feel fortunate to even be above .500.  They've been outscored by 4.3 points per game this season, ending up on the wrong side of routs far too often. While it's highly unlikely that they'll get routed here, or even lose for that matter, the fact remains that no team in the league has a larger discrepancy when it comes to actual vs. expected wins. They have no business laying double digits on the road, even to the Sixers.  Take the points.

Memphis is off a minor upset as they beat Indiana 96-84 as a one-point dog Friday. That win came on the heels of them dropping four of their previous five contests.  The news Grizzlies fans don't want to hear is that their favorite team is 0-3 ATS this season coming off a SU win as a dog. Also, that win against Indiana came at home.  On the road, the Grizz are averaging just 94.6 PPG, proof that they don't belong in this price range, and in fact they have only one double digit road win to their credit. That came at Sacramento in the fifth game of the season. Since then, they are just 4-8 SU away from home.  Making this line all the more curious is the fact they only beat Philly by eight last month at home, failing to cover as 13.5-point chalk. 

At 1-28 straight up, the Sixers are obviously a disaster.  Perhaps even more embarrassing is the fact they haven't covered a single spread since picking up their only SU win of the season, 103-91 over the Lakers back on December 1st (0-9-1 ATS since)!  But they did lead the Grizzlies late in the game back on November 29th, which was the game right before they beat the Lakers.  While Memphis has dominated them head to head, most of the matchups have been close, including four of the last five here in the City of Brotherly Love being decided by five points or less.  Look for the Sixers to play the Grizzlies tough for a second time this season. 10* Philadelphia

8* Toledo (7:00 ET):  Betting on the MAC in bowl season has historically not been a profitable venture, but I think Toledo is a great value here in a matchup of two teams that less than a month ago certainly had higher aspirations than the Boca Raton Bowl. Both Toledo and Temple were in play for the "Group of 5" New Year's Six bowl spot, but late season collapses sunk the fortunes of each. For Toledo, who was favored to win the MAC, they suffered another loss to Northern Illinois (came in unbeaten at 7-0) mid-season, but were still in play to win the Conference going into the regular season finale. All they had to do was beat Western Michigan at home, but they didn't, instead losing outright 35-30.  Temple dropped three of its last six, including a loss in the AAC Championship Game (at Houston). Despite playing w/ a new HC at the helm, I expect the dog to be the more motivated side here and betting has been far too one-sided on this matchup. Take the points.

I get the feeling that (former Toledo HC) Matt Campbell's departure for Iowa State coupled with the fact Temple is ranked (#22) is what has the public on Temple in such one-sided fashion here. Interestingly, however, the line really hasn't moved much at all.  It makes little sense to me that one side is so preferred in the seemingly even matchup. Both teams bring in quality defenses.  Temple's seems to be getting more credit nationally, but their numbers go way up away from home. Case in point, the Owls allowed 40+ points to SMU and South Florida in B2B road games, giving up 556 total yards to the latter. Toledo's defense isn't far behind the Owls in terms of efficiency (19 vs. 31) and is great at stopping the run (86 YPG allowed on the road!). The Rockets held Arkansas to only 103 yards rushing in a big upset win and gives up just 3.4 yards per carry for the season. They also allowed just 15 TD passes the entire regular season.

To me, this one hinges on Toledo's superior offense. The Rockets gain 214 yards per game over land and in its last two games away from home, Temple allowed a ghastly 559 yards rushing (to USF and Houston). Interestingly, both of Toledo's losses came at home this year. Two of Temple's three losses were on the road. Both times the Rockets were an underdog during the regular season (at Arkansas, at Bowling Green), they took the game outright.  Jason Candle is making his head coaching debut on the sidelines here, but as the former offensive coordinator and the permanent choice to succeed Campbell, I don't see much of a dropoff here. He certainly won't want to lose his first game as HC.  The Rockets, playing in their fifth straight bowl, put up 63 points LY vs. Arkansas State in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. They won't score nearly enough this time around, but they'll score enough to cover. 8* Toledo

10* Utah State (3:30 ET):  The two teams playing in this year's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl definitely ended their respective regular seasons in different fashion. Akron, a disappointment for much of the year, was able to win its final four games and get bowl eligible for the first time since '05. Utah State, a perennial bowler, failed to cover its final four regular season games (losing three of them outright). But none of that really means anything now as the two teams will be on the same field come Tuesday. The MAC is typically (but not always) pretty awful in bowl games, going 4-13 straight up the L3 seasons (and they've struggled for a lot longer than that). While one might feel Akron is going to have motivation on its side from this being their first bowl game in a decade, it's a long cross-country trip into territory that's quite familiar to their opponent. This line is just too low. Lay the points.

Let's examine that four-game win streak of Akron's, shall we? Terry Bowden's Zips really beat up on the bottom-feeders of their conference. In fact, the four teams they beat were the quartet of non-bowl teams from their division (MAC East): UMass, Miami, Buffalo and Kent State, who were a combined 14-34 SU. They had two other less than impressive wins, earlier in the regular season, as well: one over a 1-11 Eastern Michigan team and another against a FCS foe, Savannah State. The seventh and final win was at the expense of LA Lafayette, another non-bowl team (finished 4-8 SU). So, this is a team w/o a single win over a bowl-eligible opponent. Offensively, the Zips have issues. In half of their games, they scored 17 points or less. QB Thomas Woodson completed only 53.2 percent of his passes during the regular season. That's bad news going against a USU defense that ranked 14th nationally against the pass (180.4 YPG).  Thus, Akron is likely to become one-dimensional offensively and that's certainly not a good thing.

Utah State is a program w/ a winning tradition. They entered the season having won 30 games (including three bowl games) the L3 seasons, one of only four schools in the entire country that can make that claim. Two of the others are playing in this year's College Football Playoff (Mich St, Clemson), the other played for the National Championship last year (Oregon).  The Aggies have played in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl twice before, once beating Toledo (41-15 in '12) and are 9-2 SU all-time vs. the MAC, including a bowl victory over Northern Illinois in 2013. Something to consider is that QB Chuckie Keeton should finally be 100% here, even though he may actually share time w/ Kent Myers.  When healthy, Keeton can be a big-time difference maker and the threat of two QB's playing will make it difficult on Akron's defense to prepare. Also back on the field will be WR Hunter Sharp, who missed the final two regular season games due to a suspension. He still led the team in receptions (by 36!) despite missing those final two games! So this will be a rare instance of the USU offense at full strength. This is a team that beat Boise State this year (at home), 52-26, and plays in this stadium every other season.  My final tidbit is that the Aggies are a perfect 6-0 ATS the L3 seasons when having more than a full week to prepare for a game.  10* Utah State

8* Texas Tech (3:00 ET):  We're down to six unbeatens left in College Hoops (for those "keeping score at home") and certainly the "least known" of the bunch resides in Arkansas Little-Rock where the 10-0 Trojans are also a perfect 6-0 against the spread. They've made me look foolish a couple of times recently, first by thrashing DePaul on the road (66-44 as 4-pt dogs) and then blowing out overmatched Northern Arizona (84-57 as 16.5-pt dogs) Sunday. If you're a regular reader/client of mine, however, then you know I've had a great deal of success targeting the dwindling list of unbeatens this month as sooner rather than later, everybody's going to drop a game. For Arkansas Little-Rock, I do believe today is finally "the day" as they visit Lubbock to play their toughest game to date, against 8-1 Texas Tech. Lay the points.

This is a "true" road game, something that certainly hasn't bothered ALR to date as they've won five such contests, including at San Diego State & Tulsa as double-digit dogs. Clearly, they were not priced properly in either of those instances, but now things have swung too far "in the other direction."  Curiously, the Trojans have found all this success despite averaging just 62.3 points per game away from home.  They are shooting just 40.8 percent from the floor in those games (30% from three-point range).  That just won't cut it here against a Red Raiders offense that's averaging 78.5 PPG here at home, outscoring opponents by 16.3 points per game. ALR did shoot 50% (tied for season-best) against Northern Arizona Sunday w/ four reserves scoring in double figures, something I do not anticipating happening here.

Texas Tech is 6-0 SU at home this season and the Red Raiders only loss this year came on a neutral floor to Utah (who just beat Duke). They are off a 40-point win over another Arkansas school, albeit a much weaker one (non-board Ark Pine-Bluff).  Now Arkansas Little Rock is the top defensive team in the country, in terms of points allowed, so this one likely hinges on how well Texas Tech shoots the ball here. But the good news is that they play a similar defensive style to ALR and should know what they're up against. The Red Raiders aren't too shabby at the defensive end either; they're holding opponents under 38 percent for the year.  8* Texas Tech

8* San Francisco (11:00 ET):  Conference play in the WCC gets underway tonight w/ a full slate of games and here's one where I think the line is far too high.  Of course, this spread has everything to do with favored St. Mary's being unbeaten (for most) at the betting window (I did cash going against them at Cal - bet early) and the fact they are coming off a 92-36 beatdown of Southern Utah in their last game. They commence conference play with a home game against San Francisco, whom they defeated both times last year, further inflating this number. The underdog Dons come into tonight off B2B wins, however, and scored 96 points their last time out. So I'll gladly grab the number here.

With St. Mary's success, the pointspreads will only continue to rise and I think we have a "tipping point" of sorts here as this will be the second highest spread of the season, trailing only the last game against that horrible Southern Utah team. That game saw the Gaels shoot 62.5 percent from the field, including 14 of 26 from three-point range. Curiously, they shot just 57.1 percent from the free throw line.  For the year, they are just 67% from the FT line and those kind of woes will eventually cost you some covers, if not games, trust me.  Even more eye-opening, however, is the fact that Gaels' opponents are shooting just 60% from the charity stripe this season! That's an insane amount of good fortune, especially since those same opponents are getting to the FT line more than the Gaels are.

USF was also "lights out" from the field in their last game (55.0 percent) as they beat Coppin State 96-93 in overtime.  I realize that Coppin State is not a very impressive opponent, but the Dons will take a win any way they can get it. It should be pointed out that of their four losses, three have been by seven points or less. An ugly showing at Montana stands out as an outlier as they shot just 30.9 percent from the field. Remember that St. Mary's did lose all five starters from last season, so this hot start of theirs has come as a bit of a surprise. Look for this game to be closer than expected.  8* San Francisco

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET):  The Oilers of course remain w/o Connor McDavid, but for awhile were faring just fine as at one point they'd actually won six in a row. Unfortunately, a four-game road trip did not end well (three straight losses) as they were outscored 13-3 by the Rangers, Blackhawks and Avs. But tonight they're back on home ice where they haven't dropped a game since an overtime loss to Chicago all the way back on November 18th! Paying a visit Monday will be Winnipeg, who is allowing a woeful 3.4 goals per game on the road this season.  With the Jets having won all three matchups last season, revenge will be in the air here at Rexall Place and I'm backing Edmonton.

Though they lost 5-1 at Colorado on Saturday, it wasn't as if the Oilers played as poorly as the final score indicates. They actually outshot the Avalanche 40-29.  Furthermore, it should be noted that the Oilers were substantial underdogs on the money line in all four games of the recently completed road trip (did upset Boston), so it's not as if the recent results should be all that surprising. They are a strong 4-1 this season when coming off three consecutive losses, so this does shape up as the proverbial bounce back spot and I think they're being drastically undervalued on the money line.

The home ice advantage really is big here. Not just because Edmonton is 9-5-1 here (as opposed to 5-13-1 on the road), but also Winnipeg has a similar home/road dichotomy.  The Jets are also 9-5-1 at home, but 6-10-1 on the road and in the last 10 away games they are being outscored by nearly a 2:1 margin while going 1-8-1.  Winnipeg's special teams have been downright awful (29th on power play, 27th penalty killing) which could be the difference in this one.  I'm not sure I would trust the relatively inexperienced Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes either.  10* Edmonton

10* Over Hornets/Rockets (8:05 ET):  Houston has gone Under in each of its last three games.  This seems odd given how inept they are defensively (looking at you James Harden!), but tonight we can take advantage of a relatively low total (by Rockets standards). Now, recent matchups with Charlotte have mostly resulted in the Under cashing, including both last season, but it is highly unlikely that the Hornets, struggling as they may be, will shoot as poorly here as they did in the two 2014-15 meetings.  Also, for Charlotte, their last three games have all gone Over the total.  The two on the road have seen them yield an average of 111 PPG.  Go with the Over here.

In the two games vs. Houston last season, the Hornets went a combined 12 of 53 from three-point range.  Unless it's you and I out there, it stands to reason that there will be an improvement from behind the arc this evening. Offensively, Charlotte has been much better than you think this season as they rank in the top five in offensive efficiency and come in averaging an impressive 102.7 PPG.  On the other hand, this team's defensive numbers are really starting to slip, especially on the road where they're allowing 102.3 points per game. A big problem for the Hornets right now is the suspension of Al Jefferson (drug policy violation). Washington shot better than 50 percent against them in Saturday's 109-101 final. 

Houston is a horrible defensive team, but somehow has allowed just 92 PPG in B2B victories. Of course, one of those was against the Lakers, who are dismal and then the Clippers had an "off-night" Saturday (just 39.5% from the field).  This is the first time all season that the Rockets have held B2B opponents below 100 points! In fact, only five times this season have they allowed fewer than 100 pts and only once (Lakers) have they allowed fewer than 96.  On the offensive end, James Harden didn't particularly shoot well in the two wins over the LA teams, so it's reasonable to assume he'll improve here. It's also a positive sign that Dwight Howard is beginning to come around.  The bottom line is that this is a team that averages 104.3 PPG and allows 106.0.  10* Over Hornets/Rockets

10* St. Louis (8:00 ET): What has happened to the once proud Billikens? Losers of five of their last six, the team's lone win during that span came at the expense of non-board team Alabama A&M.  They're off B2B losses since, both here at home. Even worse is that they were favored to win both, against Tennessee-Martin and Indiana State, and wound up coming up 27 points short of the oddsmakers projections in those two games. The good news here, of course, is that those results have created a ton of value as SLU now comes in as a slight home dog to a Southern Illinois team they beat here last season (but didn't cover) as 6.5-pt chalk. I foresee the Billikens snapping their losing streak tonight.

These two programs are no strangers to one another as they play virtually every year. Predictably, most of the games have gone the home team's way, especially here in Saint Louis where the Billikens have won seven of eight matchups.  Neither team shot well last year, but the difference was St. Louis made twice as many three-pointers.  Three-point shooting has been basically even heading into this year's matchup.  However, overall, Southern Illinois has been red hot from the floor, averaging 83.0 points per game on the road on 51.8% shooting. They were at 53.8% in Friday's upset (2.5 pt dogs) at Murray State and I just don't think those kind of numbers are sustainable, especially away from home.

Though they enter tonight's game w/ a 10-2 SU record, it should be mentioned that the Salukis do have one ugly loss on their resume, that coming two games ago against SIU-Edwardsville (were 14.5-pt favorites at home in that one).  It also should be pointed out that St. Louis beat SIU Edwardsville earlier in the season, here at home, by 10 points.  While "Team A beat Team B" and "Team B beat Team C" does not necessarily mean "Team A will beat Team C," the value being afforded the home team here is rather curious. Note that St. Louis was victimized by a 22-2 Indiana State run in the second half on Saturday (led at the half).  This is a team w/ four players averaging double figures in scoring. Honestly, I'm pretty shocked at Southern Illinois' start given they were projected to finish ninth in the 10-team Missouri Valley Conference and coming off a 12-21 SU season. 10* St. Louis

8* UC Santa Barbara (3:00 ET): UCSB is known for putting together a daunting early season schedule, year in & year out, in the hopes that it will serve them well once Big West play commences. This year, however, the Gauchos seem to really have their work cut out for them as they've opened 2-6 SU following B2B road losses to South Dakota State and Vermont. They'll now spend some time in Vegas before Christmas as part of the South Point Holiday Hoops Classic. Up first is a game w/ Akron, winners of four straight games, but all against less than stellar competition. I look for the Gauchos to start their annual turnaround here as they are a solid value in the underdog role. Take the points.

The big story for this Monday afternoon matchup is that Akron's leading scorer, Pat Forsythe, is questionable due to an ankle injury suffered in the team's 81-60 win over Bethune-Cookman last Saturday. The fact that the Zips have had so much time off and Forsythe is still being listed as questionable is not a good sign. Forsythe is both the team's leading scorer and rebounder, so it would be a huge loss if he could not go here.  Note that this is play stands regardless of Forsythe's status as his game would obviously be impacted by the ankle injury even if he is able to play. As a team, Akron has not shot the ball very well of late. They've actually been below 42% from the field in each of their last six contests.

UCSB was victimized by the hot shooting of South Dakota State, who is great at home, last week. Three days later in Vermont, it may simply have been a case of too many "true" road games in a short span of time. Out of their eight games played so far, the Gauchos have been the visitors six times and I find it interesting that not one time all year have they been favored. Free throw shooting played a major role in the loss to Vermont as the host Catamounts went to the line 36 times, while the Gauchos were just 11 for 19.  I believe that this team is overdue for a turnaround and it starts today in Vegas as hopefully Forsythe can't go.  8* UC Santa Barbara

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET):  I have to start out by saying that I'm going against my own power ratings here as the Pelicans actually rate WORSE than the Nuggets currently and by being the road team, that means they shouldn't be favored. But "looking at the broader picture," I'd say only one of these two is due to improve and that would indeed be the Pelicans. Denver is in the midst of a massive rebuild and likely will not be relevant for some time. New Orleans, with Anthony Davis drawing MVP consideration that is no longer there, was expected to be a playoff team this year. The fact that they're not, even in the weakened West, has been a real disappointment. But, nevertheless, I see them responding well to what's a huge revenge spot.

This will be the Pelicans' fifth straight road game and so far they are just 1-3 SU/ATS on the trip, which ends here. They are coming off a very embarrassing result, a 104-88 loss in Phoenix (as only three-point dogs), which should have them "fired up" and ready to go here. Note that they had actually swept the Suns in a home and home last month, so the proverbial "revenge shoe" was on the other foot in that one. Here, the Pelicans have revenge for an ugly 115-98 early season loss at home. They shot just 36.6 percent from the field Friday night, one of their worst efforts of the entire season, so I'd expect some improvement there. Additionally, they committed 21 turnovers and were 4 of 22 from three-point range in Phoenix. HC Alvin Gentry ripped them "a new one" after the loss, so again, this is the usual bounce back spot for a struggling NBA squad. 

Denver, like New Orleans, isn't very good on the defensive end. They allow 102.4 PPG. However, it was the offense that was the problem in Friday's 97-88 loss at Utah.  For what it's worth, the Jazz are the one team the Pelicans beat on this current road trip.  The Nuggets had actually won five of six before that, so I'd say they are due to regress.  For evidence of this, look no further than the fact they had previously dropped eight in a row. When these teams last played, Davis had to exit after just six minutes due to injury. It will be a different Pelicans team tonight.  8* New Orleans

10* Under Senators/Lightning (5:05 ET):  This sets up as a fairly important middle of the season battle in the Atlantic where two of the teams scrambling for a top three spot in the division match up. Ottawa, currently tied for 3rd w/ 39 points, has been treading water of late with a .500 record since Thanksgiving. Tampa Bay, one of the bigger disappointments in the league so far, has only 35 points and has also been a seemingly mediocre bunch of late. One difference is that the Senators were a winner in their last game, 4-2 over San Jose, while the Lightning lost their last time out, 5-3 at Washington. I anticipate we'll see a lower scoring game than what's being expected as this should have almost a "playoff-like" feel to it. Take the Under.

Ottawa's main issue is that they give up way too many shots. In fact, no team in the league is currently giving up more per game (33.7).  Yet the goaltending has been pretty solid, particularly when Andrew Hammond is the one between the pipes. It doesn't seem as if "The Hamburgler" is going to get the call Sunday however, but that's okay as Craig Anderson has been very good as well this year, turning in a .918 save percentage and 2.81 goals against average. Offensively, the Sens are 4th in the league in goals per game (3.0), but they've been held to exactly one goal in four of their last five road games, one of them coming here in Tampa Bay. An 11.0 shot percentage for the year is due to come down.

In their 4-1 win over Ottawa ten days ago, Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop made 30 saves. That's nothing new as he's now 7-0-3 w/ a 2.13 GAA in his career against the Senators. Bishop is having another strong season (.929 save percentage at home), but his penalty killing unit has done him no favors.  That issue reared its ugly head, big-time, Friday night in Washington as the Caps scored three times w/ the man advantage in the third period alone, erasing what had been a 3-0 Tampa Bay lead.  But despite ranking 29th on the PK, the Lightning are still fifth in fewest number of goals allowed. Their issue lies on the offensive end where they are a disappointing 23rd in goals per game. The Under is 6-1 at home this season when the total is 5.5.  10* Under Senators/Lightning

10* Denver (4:25 ET):  This line, to me, is a classic overreaction the previous week's results. As you know, last week I went against the Broncos as my *10* Game of the Week was on Oakland, who won outright as an 8.5-point dog.  But a closer inspection of the box score reveals that was a pretty lucky win for myself as Denver actually outgained the Raiders significantly, 310-126 (20-8 edge in first downs), making that final score one of the "phoniest" of the entire season.  Meanwhile, the final score read: "Steelers 33 Bengals 20" last week in Cincinnati, but that too was a bit misleading as the total yardage was basically dead even and the game swung on a pick-six thrown by Bengals backup QB AJ McCarrron, who was forced into relief duty for an injured Andy Dalton. I'm not saying that Denver shouldn't be an underdog in this spot, but getting nearly a full touchdown is pretty ridiculous. Take the points.

There have been three times that the oddsmakers have doubted the Broncos this season (i.e. made them underdogs) and all three times they have "answered the bell," by not only covering, but also taking the game outright!  The first was a little fortunate as Kansas City shot itself in the foot back in Week 2. But there were also games against Green Bay and New England, granted both at home, where they took care of business. The commonality of those three games is the defense, which has carried the team all season. By most measures, the Broncos have the best defense in the league right now as they allow the fewest yards per game - by a wide margin - as their 272.5 YPG average is 35.3 YPG better than the #2 team. Defending the pass is really where this group stands out (188.2 YPG allowed) and oh by the way, they are also #1 in scoring defense, yielding just 17.3 points per game.

HC Gary Kubiak will need that defense to travel here against a Steelers' offense that is firing on all cylinders currently. Pittsburgh has scored 30 or more points in five consecutive games, but you'll note that the Broncos haven't surrendered that many in a game all season. Even in defeat last week, the Denver D turned in one of its finest performances all season. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Steelers are just 2-5 ATS the L3 seasons.  They are totally overvalued in this spot as this game means just as much to the Broncos, who are trying to hold off the hard-charging Chiefs in the AFC West. Look for this game to come down to the wire.  10* Denver

10* Over Dolphins/Chargers (4:25 ET):  In an atypically busy 4 PM slate of games, this matchup of AFC also-rans isn't likely to attract much, if any, attention. But when it comes to the total at least, there's some pretty good value here.  Sure, San Diego has been horrible offensively of late (though they did cash as double digit dogs for me last week!), scoring exactly three points in three of the last four games. But this one falls into the concept of two bad teams playing late in the season and that means little defense is likely to be played. Miami certainly didn't put up much of a defensive effort Monday night in a 31-24 loss to the Giants (where I cashed BOTH side & total!) and working on a short week after going cross-country isn't likely to inspire any kind of improved effort.  Take the Over. 

I wrote fairly extensively last week about the Dolphins' defensive ineptitude. I'll reiterate how this unit now ranks 28th in yards allowed and 26th in points. Monday night marked the fourth time in the last seven games that they allowed more than 30 points.  This has to be "music to the ears" to Chargers' QB Philip Rivers, who is in line for a big game. Particularly so, if he gets something from the dormant rushing attack, which will be going against Miami's 30th ranked rush defense. Last week saw Rivers and company have to deal with a driving rainstorm and an excellent Cheifs defense, two things that will not be present in sunny San Diego on Sunday afternoon. The Chargers did actually move the ball some last week vs. the Chiefs w/ four drives of six or more plays resulting in zero points, including the final one, which lasted 17 plays and 74 yards, but ended with an incompletion in the end zone on the game's final play.

Miami was able to stay in the game Monday night because they were facing a suspect Giants defense and this week they'll be going up against a similarly bad defense.  San Diego has allowed 26.9 PPG at home this season and allowed opposing QB's to complete over 69 percent of their pass attempts! So, Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill could be in line for a much-needed big game as well. The offense was at about 60 yards above their season average vs. the Giants last week and had 17 pts in the first half alone.  They also need to start giving RB Lamar Miller more carries (over 7.0 YPC Monday night).  San Diego's run defense (127 YPG allowed) is also one of the worst in football (27th).  In what could be the final NFL game ever at Qualcomm Stadium, expect a shootout. 10* Over Dolphins/Chargers

8* Cleveland (4:05 ET):  While the idea of Johnny Football going up against a veteran Seahawks secondary, in Seattle no less, should rightly score you, this is a lot of points the oddsmakers are offering up.  There can also be no denying that Manziel provided a little bit of a "spark" to the Browns in his return to the starting role last week. While most will simply write that performance off as a case of "facing the lowly 49ers," I was on Cleveland in that spot (most weren't) and they actually dominated the game by more than the final score of 24-10 even indicates. They outgained San Francisco 481-221 and won comfortably despite a -2 turnover margin. Protect the ball here and I have no doubt they can stay within this generous number, especially against a team due to have an "off-game" in the light of a key injury.

Seattle has turned in four consecutive impressive performances, winning and covering every time. The most impressive one was a 38-7 beatdown of Minnesota, on the road, where the defense didn't even allow the lone Vikings touchdown (special teams did). They didn't allow a touchdown again last week in a 35-6 dismantling of injury-riddled Baltimore. As much as Manziel has struggled, I absolutely believe that based on what I saw last week, he's a much more dynamic threat than Jimmy Clausen, who quarterbacked for the Ravens.  Lost in this impressive run for the Seahawks is the fact they lost another running back as Thomas Rawls, who had filled in more than admirably for the injured Marshawn Lynch, is now out for the season.  As good as QB Russell Wilson has looked recently, he's simply not going to throw for five touchdowns every game.

What really helped Manziel last week was the fact Cleveland actually got its moribund running game going w/ Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson. That will be tougher to do this week against a tremendous Seahawks run defense, but taking this many points all the Browns need here is to make a few big plays and they should be in good shape. We've seen Seattle struggle to defend the tight end position at times this year & Cleveland TE Gary Barnidge has actually been one of the better ones this season (really!). At worst, the proverbial backdoor should be open at the end of the game.  Seattle is only 3-3 ATS at home this year, twice losing outright.  With two division games where the revenge factor will be in play (St. Louis & Arizona) on deck, I look for the Seahawks to overlook their Week 15 opponent.  8* Cleveland

10* Northern Arizona (2:00 ET): We're down to only six unbeaten teams left in the entire country after Purdue and Iowa State went down Saturday. I was on the other side of both (Butler, Northern Iowa) yday and while we may not be getting the same exact result (i.e. SU dog win) here, I do think the points are plentiful as Northern Arizona hits the road to take on the least known/likely of the remaining unbeatens, that being Arkansas Little-Rock.  The Trojans, now 9-0 SU and 5-0 ATS on the season, sure did make me look foolish last Saturday by going to DePaul and destroying the Blue Demons by a score of 66-44 as four-point dogs. Wednesday saw them make it five "true" road wins already this year w/ another rout, this time beating Central Arkansas (non-board team that they were playing for a second time) 77-54. But, they've got to fall sooner or later, or in this case simply fail to cover.  Take the points. 

The role Arkansas Little-Rock finds itself in this afternoon is unfamiliar.  That would be the role of prohibitive favorite, something they have not been in any lined game all season. Three of their five lined games so far have seen them come as the dog, two of those (San Diego St, Tulsa) they were actually catching double digits! I already referenced another outright win, last Saturday vs. DePaul, and there have been two games in which they were slight favorites. They were laying 3.5 to East Carolina in a 54-46 win and five to Idaho in a 64-54 win. Five of their nine wins this year have come by 10 pts or less. I don't think teams will continue to shoot as poorly as they have thus far against the Trojans (36.5%!), who may get caught looking ahead here to a road game w/ Texas Tech on Tuesday.

As for Northern Arizona, all I can say is that there's no way they can be any worse than they were their last time out when they were simply bludgeoned by Arizona, 92-37 as 27.5-pt dogs. That result obviously has a massive bearing on the line here. Granted, it was also the Lumberjacks' fourth straight loss (2-8 SU overall) and they have failed to cover all four lined games this season. But they've also played two Pac 12 teams as well as Gonzaga on the road. Having shot a dismal 28 of 112 from the field the L2 games, there's only one way for NAU to go here and it's up. 10* Northern Arizona

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET):  Unbeaten Carolina, now 13-0 SU (10-3 ATS), has only three games standing between itself and a perfect regular season. I think that most would agree that this week's matchup w/ the NFC East leading Giants shapes up as the toughest. Yes, the Panthers completely dominated last week in a 38-0 win over Atlanta. But that was at home and there was the matter of the Falcons giving them plenty of help (as in four turnovers). Maybe the G-Men are just fortunate to play in the worst division in the NFC (tied for 1st place at 6-7). But they have also held a lead at one point in all but one game this season. They also came through for me Monday night, looking as good as they have at any point all season, in a 31-24 road win over Miami. Tom Coughlin is always dangerous as a dog (3-1 ATS this year), so I'll take the points.

Predictably, the majority of the public is on the Panthers. But the line is coming down and that's a strong indicator that the so-called "smart money" is on the home dog in this matchup. Again, while the Giants have been outgained in 10 of 13 games this year, they have blown FOUR fourth quarter leads. Thus, they probably are better than their overall record. While only 3-3 SU at home, those three losses have come by a total of eight points and the largest margin of defeat was only four. Remember that they very nearly upset the then-unbeaten Patriots last month in a similar price range. (I had the Giants in that one!). While Miami's defense isn't even close to as good as Carolina's, it should be noted that on Monday night Eli Manning looked as strong as he has all season.  He threw 4 TD passes and was an amazing 15 of 15 on first down attempts. Odell Beckham Jr continued his torrid pace w/ his sixth career multi-TD game.

Obviously, the Panthers have a great record in close games.  They are 6-0 in games decided by eight points or less this season. That's a far cry from the Giants' 3-6 SU mark in such contests.  In the Panthers' previous road game, they won by only three at New Orleans while giving up 38 points. The Giants' offense will present similar problems here, especially w/ the injuries in the secondary.  Injuries are becoming an even greater concern on the other side of the ball, however, with Jonathan Stewart (NFL's third leading rusher) already ruled out for Sunday and Cam Newton's favorite target (TE Greg Olsen) dealing w/ a knee injury.  I've previously talked about how late in the season teams w/ the best records are generally fade material and compounding matters is the fact the Eli Manning has one of the best December/January ATS records in the league (40-23 ATS). Carolina might be unbeaten, but the Giants need this one more. 8* NY Giants

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET):  The Falcons just can't get out of their own way. Granted, they weren't going to win regardless, but a -4 turnover margin last week at Carolina did them no favors. Make no mistake about it, not taking care of the football has been the primary issue for this team during what has been an unfathomable nine-game ATS slide. It almost seems like it was a different season, but Atlanta was once 5-0. Since then, they've dropped eight of nine w/ the only win coming by a 10-7 score over Tennessee. The team's TO margin is -11 during that time as they've committed at least one in every game but one and last week was the third time they gave it away four times! Despite this series of disappointing showings, the Dirty Birds remain a solid value this week at Jacksonville, where they are actually catching points. Hopefully, they won't continue their turnover woes.  Take the points.

First year Atlanta HC Dan Quinn was brought in to improve what had been a woeful Falcons defense and so far he's done a reasonably good job.  Before last week's debacle, the most points they'd allowed in any game since Week 3 was 24.  Therefore, the real problem lies with Matt Ryan and the offense, which is surprising.  There's the obvious issue of turnovers (hate to keep harping on that), but WR Julio Jones has now gone five games w/o scoring a touchdown. That's odd, considering he leads the league in both receptions and receiving yards. As a matter of fact, the Falcons are 8th in the league in total offense (374.6 YPG), but 21st in scoring.  Those turnovers as well as red zone issues, sometimes the two coinciding, have just killed them. RB Devonta Freeman has gone six games w/o a touchdown as well.  This offense is too talented to have this continue and fortunate for them the Jaguars' defense remains pretty suspect. Two weeks ago, the Jags gave up 42 points to Tennessee and for the year, they allow 27.5 points per game.

The reason Jacksonville is favored this week by the oddsmakers and public alike is they are coming off a 51-16 thrashing of Indianapolis, easily their most impressive win of not only this season, but the last several seasons. You have to think that a few weeks ago, the Falcons would have been favored in this spot. When you have one team coming off a blowout win and the other off a blowout loss, it's often a good idea to back the latter as it's usually a "buy low" situation where plenty of value is present.  That's certainly the case here.  Jacksonville's offensive numbers from the L2 games look great, but note there were two non-offensive TD's scored last week and QB Blake Bortles actually didn't play all that well.  RB TJ Yeldon is also out this week.  8* Atlanta

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET):  While the Patriots and Titans may find themselves at opposite ends of the spectrum, laying two touchdowns in today's NFL is a "big ask," and I happen to think that Tennessee isn't quite as bad as the oddsmakers seem to believe they are. Sure, they looked pretty terrible in last week's 30-8 loss to the Jets. But that came on the heels of a rare win and shaped up as a flat spot. I'll concede that there isn't much motivation coming out of Nashville right now considering the team is in line to land the #1 overall draft pick next Spring. But there does have to be a sense of pride here and a desire not to be humiliated. For the record, they are only being outscored by 5.6 points per game this year and they have five losses by six points or less (four by three points or less).  Take the points here against a banged up Patriots team.

New England picked up a much needed win last Sunday night in Houston, prevailing 27-6 in relatively dominant fashion. But the causalities continue to pile up as LeGarrette Blount is now out after Dion Lewis has already been lost for the season, meaning the team is down to its third string running back.  There have been injuries along the offensive line and at receiver all year long as well and as of press time, word came down that Tom Brady isn't feeling well and missed practice on Friday. This offense has now gone six games w/o scoring 30 points, which never used to be the case, and simply put they are not in a position to be covering spreads this large right now. Sure, they handled Houston last week, but that was the defense mostly taking care of business against a Texans offense that came in w/ a poor gameplan.

Two weeks ago, Tennessee scored 42 points in its third win of the season.  Last week, they were back down to eight. This team still has a long way to go as far as contending for a playoff spot goes, but you have to think that some of these poor trends of theirs are due to start improving (like an 0-8 ATS December slide). This will actually be the first time all season that they are catching double digits.  New England has covered both times this season it has been chalk of 10 points or more, but right now I think they're just trying to get to the playoffs as healthy as possible. Covering this spread will not be a priority. As long as the Titans take care of the ball and can score touchdowns, not field goals, they should stay within the generous spread. 8* Tennessee

7* Donald Cerrone (9:30 ET):  This is for the Lightweight (155 lbs) Title and a rematch of a fight won by current champion Rafael Dos Anjos back in August of 2013 (via unanimous decision). A major point I harped on in last week's selection on Luke Rockhold was the fairly recent IV ban, which drastically affects weight cutting. Now former Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman was known for drastic weight cutting and the IV ban resulted in him coming in a lot smaller for the fight than per usual. The same holds true here for Dos Anjos, whose appearance at Friday's weigh-ins was considered eye-popping.  The challenger Cerrone is a better fighter now than he was 28 months ago and quite frankly this is an incredible price in what amounts to a toss-up fight.  I'm calling for the second UFC Title change in as many weeks (third if you consider McGregor over Aldo a title change).

Cerrone is 15-3 in the UFC and comes into tonight riding an eight fight win streak. After winning three straight via decision, his win in May over John Makdessi came via second round stoppage (TKO) on a vicious head kick. Cerrone, a former kickboxer, is obviously outstanding w/ his leg strikes. But he's also a great wrestler too, meaning that this is a unique situation where the underdog may have the advantage either standing or on the ground. Dos Anjos did take him down several times in that first fight, but a key difference here is that this fight is scheduled for five rounds, not three. Late in that first fight, it did appear as if Cerrone was getting stronger (won Rd 3) as the fight wore on while the opposite held true for Dos Anjos. The former simply ran out of time in the three round format.

It will be interesting to see how the champion's stamina holds up given the obvious difference in his physical appearance coming into tonight's rematch. If this fight does indeed make it to the "championship rounds" (ie Rds 4 & 5), then that's when I expect Cerrone to take full advantage.  He's also more likely to win this fight via stoppage. While Dos Anjos did win all five rounds in his title win over Anthony Pettis in May, it was a case of one dominant round (the 1st) in the first fight w/ Cerrone. At the time, the knock against Cerrone was that he struggled vs. lefties, but he's since beaten four southpaws. New champion here. 7* Donald Cerrone

8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET):  What a brutal loss (and non-cover) last night for the Clippers.  Of course, it was a GREAT win for me as I had San Antonio -7.5 and the Spurs, who trailed entering the fourth quarter, made two free throws w/ only two seconds left on the clock to "grab the money."  While I may not have liked the Clips last night, that had just as much, if not more, to do with their opponent. It's a significant drop in class for Saturday as they head to Houston to play a Rockets team that's been a massive disappointment on the court and at the betting window all season. As you know (I've been harping on this), teams playing in the second of B2B games are typically undervalued and that's the case here as my own personal power ratings indicate that LA should not be an underdog in this matchup.

Not only will there be motivation from last night's loss, but the revenge angle is present here as well.  Los Angeles likely still hasn't forgotten being ousted in the second round of LY's playoffs, a series that they likely should have won (led big at home in Game 6).  They failed at their first attempt at gaining a measure of revenge, losing outright (109-105) as 5.5-point favorites at the Staples Center back on November 7th.  But that result simply is not indicative of the kind of season Houston is having. They are below .500 in the standings and are just 10-17 ATS, one year removed from being the most profitable team in the league to bet on. Things have turned around somewhat for the Rockets in December, but I put little stock in Thursday's 20-point victory as it came at the expense of the lowly Lakers. They are still just 6-12 ATS as favorites.

Dwight Howard is being shopped around as trade bait and James Harden is dating Khloe Kardashian. I'm not sure either is to blame for the Rockets' poor start to the season, but neither situation is a positive.  Meanwhile, even though they lost last night, I think there were some positive takeaways for the Clippers. Namely, they scored 88 points in three quarters against a team that came in allowing just 88.2 points per game. The intentional fouling of DeAndre Jordan clearly disrupted the flow of the game and negatively affected the Clips. Here, that can work both ways (Howard).  Houston is also w/o backup point guard Ty Lawson (suspended) here.  Both teams here have experienced disappointing starts, but the Clippers have been more consistent and generally played better. 8* LA Clippers

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): The Central Division is the toughest in the sport and is very likely to produce both Wild Cards in the Western Conference as the Pacific is really weak this year (besides the Kings). Currently, Minnesota should feel safe as it is tied for third in the Central w/ 40 points, thanks to a three-game win streak. Nashville's position (fifth) is a little more precarious right now as they have dropped three in a row. But a return home should bring a change in results tonight for the Predators, who have lost all three of those games by exactly a one-goal margin, one of them in overtime. Advanced stats say the Preds should be better, much better in fact, as they rank #3 in Corsi and #1 in Fenwick!  I'm on them here.

Those excellent possession numbers speak well to the brand of hockey Nashville is playing. Since being outshot in four of their first five games this season, that's happened only nine times in the L27 games. They were outshot (33-28) in St. Louis Thursday, but they actually led that game 1-0 heading into the third period.  Only one other time this season have the Preds dropped three in a row (and in that instance they were shut out all three times!) and they followed it up w/ a 3-2 win over Buffalo.  The opponent is certainly tougher here, but after the road team won six consecutive Minnesota-Nashville matchups, I say it's time for a return to "normalcy" in this division rivalry.

The Wild did win in shutout fashion (4-0) at home against the Predators last month (after losing the season's first meeting, also in the Twin Cities).  But tonight marks the fourth time they've attempted to win four straight games and the three previous times have all seen them fail.  High-scoring wins the L2 games will likely attract bettors' attention, but beware that both of those games came at home. (I was on one of them, the 6-2 win over Vancouver).  But while Nashville is outshooting opponents this season (31.3 shots per game), Minnesota is basically dead even in that department despite recent strong figures. They have lost 9 of 14 road games this year and remember that the Predators are typically very strong at Bridgestone Arena. Pekka Rinne's .923 save percentage at home carries his team to victory here. 10* Nashville

8* Northern Iowa (7:00 ET):  The underdog Panthers have already pulled one major upset this season, knocking off then #1 North Carolina in Cedar Falls, so they certainly won't be intimidated here in a neutral setting against another Top 5 foe, that being in-state rival Iowa State, who is unbeaten (one of eight left) and ranked #5 in the country. If you're a client/regular reader, then you already know that I've been targeting the dwindling list of unbeaten teams left as sooner rather than later, everyone is going to lose.  You may recall that I played against the unbeaten Cyclones as recently as nine days ago when they likely "should have" lost to another in-state foe, Iowa. But, in addition to not covering the spread there, they also suffered another loss, that being an injury to star guard Naz Mitrou-Long. I'll take the points here.

In that 83-82 win over Iowa, ISU actually trailed by as many as 20 in the second half.  So chalk that result up to some good fortune. Turnovers have been a problem for the Cyclones this season, particularly in the first halves of games. They gave it away 10 times in the first 16 minutes alone vs. the Hawkeyes, whose size also gave them problems.  This will also be ISU's first test w/o Long. His replacement scored 17 pts in an easy win over Arkansas Pine-Bluff (non-board team) last Saturday, but that clearly was an overmatched opponent. Of the six unbeatens left in the Top 25, I'd say that Iowa State is the most vulnerable right now. I'll reiterate the fact that they have a first year head coach as well, who is replacing the high-profile Fred Hoiberg.

I'm going to chalk up Northern Iowa's 76-57 loss at New Mexico last Saturday as a case of "looking ahead." It was also the Panthers' third straight road game in an eight-day span and they shot a season-worst 6 of 25 from three-point range.  Having had a full week off and returning to the Hawkeye state should be a big boost.  They are 10-3 ATS L13 neutral site games and have revenge for a 91-82 loss to Iowa State in the last meeting (did cover as 10-pt dogs). That was just UNI's second loss in the last seven meetings vs. ISU.  This spread is just too high.  8* Northern Iowa

8* San Jose State (7:00 ET):  In the interest of full disclosure, I may be a little bit biased in taking SJSU in the Cure Bowl (takes place in Orlando) as they were kind to me during the regular season. Not only did I cash them multiple times on a game by game basis, but they also went Over their projected win total of 4.0 for me as well.  Now, things almost ended in cruel fashion as they couldn't hold off Boise State in the regular season finale and ended up w/ only five wins. Normally, a team needs six to become bowl eligible, but because there is now so many bowl games, the Spartans were granted a "second life." Even better is the fact that they draw Georgia State, a first time bowler that likely rates as the worst team in any of the 40 postseason games we have on tap.  Lay the short number in this one.

If one would have predicted that this Georgia State team would be in a bowl prior to the start of the season, then that person very well could have been institutionalized. This is a program that had been at the FBS level for just two years and had won all of ONE game during that time, which was against Abeliene Christian, a FCS school! "True to form," the Panthers opened this season 2-6 w/ outright losses (meaning they were favored) to Charlotte, a 1st year FBS program, and FCS Liberty.  But then, something downright shocking occurred and that was the team rattling off four consecutive wins to end the regular season, including a 34-7 win (as 20.5-pt underdogs) over "rival" Georgia Southern in the finale!  Tip your cap to the job done by HC Trent Miles in his third season in Atlanta, but I think this team is in "way over its head" in a bowl environment.

A major key here is that San Jose State is favored. The number has actually come down by several points from where it opened and in doing so, bettors are going against recent history.  You see if there's one pattern that has emerged the L2 seasons under Ron Caragher for SJSU, it's that they win when favored and lose as an underdog. They went 5-1 SU/ATS as chalk this season after going 3-1 SU/ATS in that role last year. As a dog, they are 0-14 straight up during that same time!  On offense, look for a steady dose of RB Tyler Ervin, who ran for nearly 1500 yards during the regular season. The Georgia State defense allows 182 yards rushing per game.  But the "key of keys" here will be San Jose State's excellent pass defense (ranked #2 in all of FBS!) negating the GSU passing attack. This is a really favorable matchup for a Spartans team that will be eager to prove it belongs in a bowl despite the losing record.  8* San Jose State

10* Butler (5:00 ET):  Right now, it seems as if Purdue (not Maryland!) has emerged as the top contender to Michigan State in the Big 10.  The Boilermakers are 11-0 straight up (one of eight remaining unbeatens left) with every win coming by at least 12 points. But the schedule has been rather soft to this point and if you're a client/regular reader, then you already know that I've been targeting the dwindling list of unbeaten teams left as sooner rather than later, everyone is going to lose. This evening, Matt Painter's team faces its toughest test to date in the form of Butler, who is 8-1 SU w/ a "true" road win at Cincinnati. The Bulldogs have routinely topped 90 points (four times) this season including each of the L2 games. They can absolutely win this neutral site matchup of in-state rivals.  Take the points.

This will be a case of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.  Butler comes in averaging 91.7 points per game (4th in terms of off. efficiency) while Purdue is allowing just 57.5 (1st in terms of def. efficiency).  In each case, it will be the toughest opponent faced all season. Teams are shooting just 33.3 percent for the year against the Boilermakers, which seems unsustainable.  Likewise, Butler's offensive numbers are due to drop but a team that's made 20 three-pointers its last two games, getting this many points, is dangerous in the underdog role.  They are also 10-5 ATS in a neutral court setting the L3 seasons (64-32 ATS L96!).

Purdue has simply not had much success in this all-Indiana event. They've lost four straight times to Butler, including the last meeting (in 2013), 76-70 as 2.5-pt pups. I readily concede that this is the best Boilermakers squad that the Bulldogs will have faced during that time. But, once again I'll reiterate that Butler is the best team Purdue has faced so far. Not only do we have a sharp-shooting underdog on our hands, but underrated may be the facts that the Bulldogs are 13th nationally in fewest turnovers per game (just 10.1) and 27th in free throw percentage (74.9%).  The fewest points Butler has scored in a game all season is 74 and taking this number, I think there's a very good chance they stay within the money. 10* Butler

10* BYU (3:30 ET):  This sets up as the most interesting matchup of the first day of bowl games as it's an "unscheduled" installment of the Holy War, a rivalry that was to be put on hold both last and this year, but as you can see there's been a change of plans. When it comes to handicapping the bowls, so much of its comes down to motivation, particularly in these early games.  Here, I don't think there can be any disputing who the more motivated side is likely to be and it's BYU, who not only will looking to end an ugly four-game losing skid in the rivalry, but also will want to send departing HC Bronco Mendenhall (going to Virginia) out w/ a win. Mendenhall was adamant about coaching this game and a win here would be the punctuation mark on what was a successful 11-year tenure.  For Utah, who seems to be drawing all the public money, Las Vegas is not where they wanted to end up following a 6-0 SU start.  Take the points.

It's easy to forget now, but once upon a time Mendenhall and BYU were the talk of College Football.  Led by QB Tanner Mangum, they opened the year w/ B2B miracle wins over Nebraska (Hail Mary) and Boise State. But then they ran into UCLA and Michigan and those losses (particularly the latter) quickly dropped them off the national radar. Since that time, however, the Cougars have lost just one time and it came at Missouri in a highly emotional environment as Mizzou was dealing with all the controversy on campus. Still, it was just a four-point game. After that loss, the offense closed the regular season w/ B2B 50+ point performances against Fresno State and Utah State. The team finished 8-4 ATS including 3-1 ATS as dogs.

Not only does Utah have to deal w/ the disappointment of getting stuck in the Pac 12's sixth bowl slot (second straight year in Las Vegas Bowl and third time since 2010) again, but there's the major issue of them taking the field w/o their best player, RB Devontae Booker.  This is as big a personnel loss as any team faces this entire bowl season.  It's not hyperbole to say Booker was the entire Utes' offense.  In the two games without him, they scored just 29 points and were held to an average of 315.5 yards per game. QB Travis Wilson really struggled vs. UCLA and Colorado, completing less than 50 percent of his pass attempts w/ only two completions longer than 20 yards.  Three of the last four "Holy Wars" were one-score games and this is a major payback game from BYU's perspective.  10* BYU

8* New Mexico (2:00 ET):  The good news coming out of Tucson is that Rich Rodriguez has decided to remain the head football coach at Arizona. But the bad news is that his Wildcats now must regroup from their HC's near departure and play what amounts to a "true" road game in the New Mexico Bowl against Bob Davie and New Mexico. The underdog Lobos won't be lacking motivation for this bowl game; it's the program's first since '07 (also New Mexico Bowl) and first under Davie. Rich Rod has never been particularly strong in the bowls, in fact he's an awful 2-7 ATS all-time in them, including an outright loss to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl last year. For what it's worth, New Mexico went to Boise this season and stunned the Broncos (as 30-pt underdogs!), 31-24.  Take the points here.

Basically, this game is a very disappointing end to what's been a disappointing season for Arizona. This was a team that had hoped to repeat as Pac 12 South champs coming into the year, but instead finished just 6-6 SU.  They played a very weak non-conference slate (including a game vs. an FCS opponent), which accounts for half of those six wins. The defense, which was hit very hard by injuries, was routinely torched in Pac 12 play. Five times they allowed 45 or more points and they ended the regular season by dropping four of five games. There was an upset of Utah mixed in there, but that represents just one of two victories over a bowl team all season. Just when the injury bug seemed to be subsiding, now word comes down that the team's leading rusher (Nic Wilson) has been ruled out for Saturday's game.

Arizona is somehow 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS in the road favorite role the L3 seasons, but being favored by this many in that role for a bowl game is a different challenge altogether.  Especially considering how "fired up" New Mexico should be for this game. The Lobos had really fallen on "hard times" prior to Davie's arrival and now the coach is gunning for his first ever bowl win. The Lobos triple option offense (248 rush yds/game) demonstrated a real "big play capability" down the stretch in wins over Boise State and Air Force. Against the latter, they had four plays of 40+ yards, three of them going for touchdowns. So they should be able to take advantage of the injury-riddled Arizona defense. UNM went 5-2 SU at home this season, averaging 33.2 points per game, so they most certainly are a live dog against an Arizona team whose coaching staff is already pointing towards next season.  8* New Mexico

8* San Antonio (8:05 ET):  Don't tell the Spurs that Golden State is "lapping" the rest of the league as they have a nearly identical per game point differential (+13.4 vs. +13.5) and come into tonight at 22-5 SU, which includes a perfect 14-0 at home.  That makes them a bargain as a single-digit favorite, at least in my opinion, against just about any opponent. That includes the Clippers, who have turned it around somewhat, but are still only +2.1 in per game point differential and a 6-1 SU stretch has come mostly at the expense of inferior opponents (favored in every game). As the underdog, it's been a different story for Doc Rivers' bunch as they are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in that role and really there's no question who the better defensive team is here. Lay the points.

San Antonio is destroying teams at home this year, outscoring opponents by 16.8 points per game.  The main reason for that is a defense that is allowing just 86.1 PPG.  This is the #1 team in the league - by a mile - in terms of defensive efficiency. Per 100 possessions, they are allowing 4.2 points less than the #2 team (Chicago), which is a wider gap than the difference between #2 and #12!  On the other hand, the Clippers are allowing 103.2 PPG on the road. They've been fortunate in that their last few opponents have all shot relatively poorly from the floor. Unfortunately for the Clips, San Antonio is shooting better than 48% overall this season, including 37% from three-point range.  They are also 14-5 ATS this season vs. opponents allowing 99+ PPG. 

This is also a major revenge spot for the Spurs.  It's the first time they've faced off w/ LA since being ousted in seven games in LY's first round playoff series. That series saw the Clips win twice in San Antonio, something that I'm sure Greg Popovich will remind his team of, plus there's the fact that the Clippers also won by 20 here in the Alamo during LY's regular season.  Following a double-digit win (beat the Bucks 103-90 on Tuesday), the Clippers are 0-5 against the spread this season. Meanwhile, the Spurs have posted four consecutive victories, all by 19 points or more and 14 of their 22 wins this season have come by a double digit margin. 8* San Antonio

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  Yes, I'm doing "this" again, this being taking the T'wolves at home despite a woeful 3-10 SU/1-12 ATS record here.  Not surprisingly, that is easily a league-worst and it includes a recent 0-4 homestand + a double-digit loss to Denver earlier in the week. A quick visit to New York failed to yield any better results as the team fell to the Knicks, 107-102 on Wednesday, but in this spot they are simply being way undervalued. I know I've said this before, but tonight marks the strongest case yet as Sacramento comes in as a road favorite (!), a role you just don't find them in very often. In fact, the Kings haven't been road chalk even one time this season and are 1-6 ATS laying three or less away from home the L3 seasons.  They lost, at home, to Minnesota (as three-point favorites) last month, so take the points.

That last meeting took place on November 27th and saw the T'wolves not just prevail, but win by double digits, 101-91.  Kings fans will point to the fact they were w/o their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, and that Rudy Gay played his worst game of the season (1 for 13 FG attempts). They are also likely to point to the team's current three-game win streak that's seen them also cover as favorites every time.  But all of those games came at home. This has been a terrible road team for years and so far this season has been no different as they've gone 2-8 SU while allowing a horrifying 112.5 points per game! My own personal power ratings indicate that Sacramento should not even be favored in this game and instead should be around a five-point dog. 

Minnesota is hardly "sound" defensively itself as they've given up 107 or more points in seven straight contests, none of which have seen them cover the spread. But this shapes up as a good matchup and not just because they've already beaten the Kings once this season. They've averaged 106.1 PPG those last seven contests as well, so I'd look for them to win a high-scoring affair here. Also of note is the fact that Sacramento turned the ball over a mind-numbing 29 times their last game (granted, no Rondo). The bottom line is that the Timberwolves HAVE to turn things around at home. 10* Minnesota

9* Over Canucks/Red Wings (7:35 ET):  Vancouver's scoring woes continued in a 2-0 loss last night at Philadelphia. Incredibly, that marked the fourth time the Canucks have been shut out in their last nine games, a stretch that goes back to November 30th. Overall, it has just been a miserable stretch of hockey for the contingent from British Columbia as they've gone 2-6-2 the L10 games overall and while the Under predictably has gone 7-3 during that same stretch, it's not like the Canucks have been immune to giving up a ton of goals. Case in point; Tuesday's 6-2 loss in Minnesota (I was on the Wild!). That was the 5th time in 9 games that they've allowed four or more goals, so I'm on the Over here as they visit Detroit.

After three straight games w/ exactly five goals to start the month, the Red Wings' offense has struggled a bit in recent games, totaling just eight goals in the L4 games. However, the last one, which was a 2-1 home loss to lowly Buffalo, marked the only time there weren't at least five total goals scored.  Earlier in the year, I mentioned how Detroit had been struggling to get the puck on net. That hasn't been the case lately, however, as they've averaged 30 shots per game over their last five (they had 33 vs. the Sabres). This is also a team that's been going into extra time - A LOT - lately.  Eight of their last 12 games have gone to overtime, or a shootout, and that can obviously been an Over player's "best friend."  Hopefully, we don't need extra time tonight, but I'll certainly take it, if need be!

Detroit has also been giving up a lot of shots lately (33.0 per game L5). That's gotta be music to the ears of Canucks fans, who have seen their team shoot a pathetic 5.6 percent the L5 games.  But after some real paltry numbers earlier this month (just 49 total shots in one three-game stretch), Vancouver has improved to 30.0 per game their L5 and that includes 36 in last night's shutout loss, so they ran into a hot goaltender. Jimmy Howard has been great for Detroit, but his numbers are due to slip a little. Meanwhile, Vancouver's Ryan Miller has a 3.53 GAA lifetime vs. the Wings and the Canucks have also allowed 33.0 shots/game their last five.  The last three matchups between these two have all seen at least five total goals scored. 9* Over Canucks/Red Wings

10* Clemson (7:00 ET):  South Carolina is one of the eight remaining unbeatens left in College Hoops. They've covered all but one lined game this season, an 81-63 win over South Florida where they were 19-point home favorites. I successfully went against the Gamecocks there and will do so again here, this time the result will likely end up being their first SU loss of the season.  Yes, they looked as dominant as ever earlier this week in a 79-54 beatdown of Drexel. But this will be South Carolina's first "true" road game of the season and it comes against a hungry in-state rival seeking revenge for an embarrassing 23-point loss in Columbia last year. Clemson comes into Friday having won three of four, the lone loss coming by a single point.

If a team shoots worse than 30 percent, chances are they won't win the game.  Clemson found that out the hard way, losing 68-45 last season at South Carolina as seven-point dogs.  In the loss, the Tigers shot a woeful 29.8% overall (17 of 57!) including 4 of 18 from three-point range. That was one of their worst losses of last season w/ only losses to Virginia and North Carolina meeting or exceeding that final margin. Eight of their 15 losses in 2014-15 were by six points or less, so you could make a case the team should have finished w/ a better record than 16-15 SU. This year, they've opened 7-3 SU following a 69-41 rout of Presbyterian on Tuesday. That was their fourth straight game holding an opponent to 56 pts or less (and 7th time in 10 games) as opponents are shooting just 37.9% against them for the year.

Even better is that Clemson comes in averaging a solid 71.3 points per game itself.  They'll need to bring their offense here as South Carolina averages 83.2 PPG. But that's come at the expense of a fairly light schedule. You'll note that the Gamecocks aren't even ranked in the AP Poll (#25 in Coach's), so they're not really impressing the pollsters either.  Also note that while this game isn't actually being played on Clemson's campus (it's taking place in nearby Greenville), it is still a road game for USC, who the L2 seasons have gone 4-18 straight up as the visitor. Rebounding likely decides this game as the Gamecocks are +10.3 per game in that department, but Clemson has won the battle of the boards in all seven of its victories.  10* Clemson

10* Over Buccaneers/Rams (8:25 ET): Part of me has a slight lean towards Tampa Bay in this matchup. They are off a very disappointing loss last week, at home, to New Orleans. That loss not only prevented them from topping their season win total, but also pretty much killed off whatever small chance they had at making the playoffs. Meanwhile, St. Louis was a winner for me on Sunday, beating Detroit w/ a defensive touchdown being the difference in the game. That win and cover snapped a 5-game ATS slide for the Rams.  However, I'm far more locked into the total now for this Thursday night matchup (rematch of 1999 NFC Championship Game!). While neither offense was impressive LW, this total is low and I anticipate more points being score than expected. Take the Over. 

Now, I am aware that the Rams have gone Under the total in four straight games, not to mention seven of their last eight. Take away last week's defensive score and the team has not scored 20 points in six consecutive contests. But this Bucs defense isn't to be feared, particularly on the road where they allow opposing QB's to complete nearly 70 percent (!) of their pass attempts (69.4%) and 384 total yards per game. They were right at that average LW at home vs. the Saints, giving up 388 yds in the 24-17 loss and Drew Brees completed 31 passes.  St. Louis clearly will try and run the ball more as we saw them run for a season-best 203 yds LW.  Re-establishing Todd Gurley went a long way against the Lions and though the Bucs' have actually done an outstanding job at stopping the run recently, they haven't faced a back as dangerous as Gurley during that time.

St. Louis has actually beaten Tampa Bay each of the last three seasons and all three times the game stayed Under. But the Bucs now have Jameis Winston at QB and while he may have had a disappointing day vs. what had been an awful Saints' defense, I expect him to bounce back tonight. Yes, four of the last six games have seen the Bucs fail to score 20 points. But when you have two bad teams likes this, late in the season, defense often becomes optional. Quietly, Tampa Bay has the fourth best rushing offense in the NFL (141.2 YPG), so they should be able to move the ball in this one. In the end, this is a really low total by today's NFL standards and for the Bucs, they are 4-1 Over this season when the O/U line is between 40 and 42 points w/ all four Overs seeing at least 56 total pts scored! 10* Over Bucs/Rams

6* Chicago (8:35 ET):  It's not very often that I would lay this kind of juice on the money line, but in this case it is warranted as the defending Stanley Cup Champions, coming off a shutout loss to Colorado, welcome in an Edmonton club that's due to start regressing.  The Oilers, surprisingly, have won six of their last seven w/ the lone loss coming their last time out (4-2 to the Rangers).  But this will be their third road game in four nights and that's a tough spot for them considering a pretty woeful 5-12 SU mark in away games this season.  The Blackhawks are 12-5 at home and won't take too kindly to being shut out for only the second time all season. Prior to that, they had shut out their previous two opponents, here at home.

With the Blackhawks being shutout in their last game, obviously Patrick Kane saw his 26-game point streak come to an end. Again, it was just the second time they've been shutout all season. It is certainly reasonable to expect a strong bounce back in this situation. Especially given that, predictably, Chicago has dominated Edmonton through the years. They have taken seven of the last eight matchups, including all four here in the Windy City. Goalie Corey Crawford, who started this homestand w/ B2B shutouts, is 6-0 his L6 starts vs. the Oilers with a 1.97 goals against average.  Over his L4 games, Crawford has posted a marvelous .975 save percentage. There have been six home games this season for Chicago where the total has been 5.5.  They have won all six.

As stated before, Edmonton just isn't a very good road team.  They did stun Boston to start this four-game trip, but then came back down to Earth, losing to a Rangers team they had just beaten 7-5 at home four days prior.  They beat Boston despite a 49-24 deficit in shots and then goalie Anders Nilsson came in and allowed four goals on just 21 shots to the Rangers. The Oilers had just 20 shots themselves Tuesday, the third time in the last four games they finished w/ 24 or fewer. That's not going to win you many games in this league. Nor is the team's goaltending duo of Nilsson and Cam Talbot, who combined rank 25th in the league in goals allowed per game. Both have save percentages below .900 their last four starts as well.  6* Chicago

10* Under Flames/Stars (8:35 ET):  This is a very unique matchup as we have the league's highest scoring team (Dallas) against the team that gives up the most goals per game (Calgary). Though that potentially indicates a lopsided affair, note that the Flames actually stunned the Stars back on December 1st, winning 4-3 as +145 ML underdogs. But that game did come on home ice and looking at the ML here, it is difficult to like their chances of pulling the upset again. I do, however, feel confident in predicting another change from that last meeting, that being that we'll see far fewer goals scored, especially from the Calgary side of things.  Take the Under.

The juice was very high on the Under for the Flames' last game, which ended up being a 2-1 win over Nashville in overtime.  That was actually their first road win since all the way back on November 13th!  They average only 2.2 goals per game on the road, so the real shocker on Tuesday was the goaltending.  Kari Ramo has probably been the Flames' best option between the pipes this season and that's pretty sad when you consider he has a save percentage of only .908.  Of course, it helped him immensely that he had to face only 22 shots the entire game vs. Nashville. He's certainly likely to be under fire more here against Dallas, who is averaging 33.4 shots per game their L5, but I'll say this - Ramo has been improving and the team has won each of his L4 starts.

At the same time, Calgary had only 21 shots on goal themselves vs. Nashville and a team shooting percentage of 13.3 is likely due to start coming down sooner rather than later. The Flames had seen six straight Overs cash prior to beating the Preds, so they were "due" (for an Under) and I think the same holds true here as six of the last seven meetings w/ the Stars have now gone Over. As much damage as Dallas can do offensively, I look for them to hold Calgary to one goal or less here, something they have done in each of their past two home victories. The Stars do a pretty good job at limiting shots (just 27.0 allowed per game L5) and that will make things easier on either Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi. The Under is 9-4 in Calgary road games this season when the total is 5.5.  10* Under Flames/Stars

10* Over Thunder/Cavaliers (8:05 ET):  This shapes up as a battle to see just who the third best team in the NBA is right now.  (Obviously, Golden State and San Antonio are 1-2). Kyrie Irving will NOT make his season debut for Cleveland here, but the Cavs are still favored as they are at home and coming off back to back impressive wins over the Magic and Celtics (allowed just 76.5 PPG!).  However, this is a big step up from those two opponents and quite obviously OKC is a much better offensive team than what Cleveland has been facing recently. In fact, both of these teams rate in the top four in the league in terms of offensive efficiency (OKC #2, CLE #4), so I anticipate there will be plenty of scoring tonight in this high-profile TNT matchup. Take the Over.

You can't get any more dominant than Cleveland was defensively in its last two games as they held Orlando to just 76 and Boston 77 points.  Of course, they had a lot of help from the opponents themselves, who combined to shoot a woeful 56 of 159 from the floor (35.2 percent!). You'll note that in their two games prior to that, Cleveland's two opponents (Miami & Portland) both shot 50% or better, so I'm not too convinced that the L2 games are part of some long-term trend. In fact, the Over had been 12-6 in the games in which they were favored this season. Oklahoma City also got a break from an opponent shooting the ball poorly last night as Portland connected on only 34.8% percent of its shot attempts in a 106-90 win and cover for the Thunder. That makes it an incredible 10-1 Under streak for OKC, a trend certainly due to "reverse itself" given the team's usual offensive output.

With bad shooting opponents out of the way, I feel these teams are likely to engage in a shootout here. Both are on the fringes of the top 10 in terms of defensive efficiency, but again recent opponents have not been strong on the offensive end of the floor.  Both of these teams are. Oklahoma City comes in averaging a whopping 110.6 points per game on the road! At the same time, they give up 104.3 PPG.  Cleveland is averaging 104.2 PPG at home. Provided each team gets close to 100 possessions, this one should fly Over the number.  10* Over Thunder/Cavs

10* Over Sixers/Hawks (8:05 ET):  It's a "tipping point" situation of sorts here as Atlanta has gone Under in seven consecutive games. They also went Under in all four matchups vs. Philadelphia last season.  However, coming off games against San Antonio & Miami (#1 and #2 teams in defensive efficiency), the Hawks offense is bound to be better for this matchup, which I have going Over the total.  They averaged just 83 PPG in losses to the Spurs and Heat, but this is a team that is top five in the league in "true" shooting percentage and averages 99.7 PPG.  We'll need Philadelphia to pull its own weight for the Over to cash here as well, but fortunately the Hawks have allowed 100+ in three consecutive contests.

As ugly as Atlanta's offensive numbers have been recently, the Sixers have been even worse at that end of the floor.  They come in averaging just 85.2 PPG their last five, but that number is skewed by a horrid 68-point effort against San Antonio. Yes, the Sixers are the worst offensive team in the league by just about any measure. But, every once in a while, a team is at least "due" to break out and with Philly below 45% shooting in each of those L5 games (under 40% three times!), tonight is their night. It's really hard to continuously shoot that poorly.  Also, defensively, they have allowed 100+ pts in five of their last six games.

A decline in three-point shooting has really hurt the Hawks this year.  Only Golden State was better from beyond the arc last season, but this season has seen Atlanta drop to 18th (34.1 percent).  They were just 8 for 33 vs. Miami and 39.3 percent overall. Again though, tonight sees them in a favorable matchup that they should take advantage of.  Kyle Korver is due to get going while Jeff Teague is a virtual lock to improve upon his woeful 2 of 17 shooting the L2 games.  Again, the key here is can Philadelphia approaching 100 points? They scored 96 their last time out, including a 37-point second quarter (most in any quarter all season!), so they are capable.  Look for this one to sneak Over the total.  10* Over Sixers/Hawks

10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): The Jackrabbits of South Dakota State are not a team to be taken lightly. They are 9-1 straight up (lost to Missouri-KC, a non-board team) and covered all seven lined games.  This includes B2B impressive performances. First they went to Minnesota and came away w/ a 14-point victory as 2.5 dogs. Then, I made the mistake of doubting their ability to cover a fairly large spread Sunday vs. UC Santa Barbara as they prevailed 86-68.  It was their third consecutive game scoring 80+, in fact.  However, I'm going to go against them again here as this time they have to hit the road to play a team that hasn't played in a week. Clearly, the oddsmakers have taken notice of SDSU and this line is simply way too short.

Texas Tech has lost only one time themselves, back in the second game of the year, which was on a neutral court against Utah.  Since then, they've won five in a row, including 68-49 over Tennessee Martin last Wednesday.  Having a full week off should have them ready to go for this one, their toughest test since their own win over Minnesota back on November 22nd. The Red Raiders average 73.7 points per game and attempted only 12 free throws in their last game. So, I expect a strong showing at the offensive end here. Against UT Martin, they jumped out to a 39-16 halftime advantage as a number of players turned in strong performances. With the time off, there's no reason to project any decline here. Playing w/ five or six days rest, the Red Raiders have gone 6-1 against the spread the L3 seasons. 

Remember Tubby Smith? He's the coach here in Lubbock.  He has never lost to South Dakota State in eight career matchups.  His team is playing solid defense (63 PPG allowed here at home).  I look for the Red Raiders to hold the Jackrabbits in relative check tonight. Certainly, it will be very difficult for South Dakota State to come close to matching its scorching 58.3 percent shooting from the UCSB game. The Jackrabbits have now won 21 straight home games. But they have a losing record on the road the L3 seasons (despite a 3-1 mark this year), including their one loss so far, again, to a non-board team. 10* Texas Tech

8* Under Celtics/Pistons (7:35 ET):  Things did not go well for the Celtics last night as they dropped a home game to Cleveland, 89-77 as two-point dogs. Still a top 10 team in the league, Boston shot a woeful 32.2 percent overall (9 for 32 from 3-pt range) yday. Naturally, you'd expect some improvement for tonight's visit to Detroit, but we also have a "tipping point" situation of sorts here as six of the last seven meetings with the Pistons have gone Over the total (including all three last season), plus the last three Detroit games have all gone Over as well.  That, combined w/ the fact that the Pistons are one of the worst shooting teams in the entire league, have me on the Under in this one.

The Pistons have topped 100 points in six of their last eight contests.  However, as I already mentioned, this team typically does not shoot the basketball well. Their "true" shooting percentage, which takes free throw attempts into account, is just 50.1, ahead of only Philadelphia. They are bottom 10 in terms of pace of play as well, so if they aren't making shots, that's trouble because they typically don't have a lot of opportunities. The team shoots just 42.3 percent from the field and has been at 50 percent or better in only three games all season. Surprisingly, the Over has cashed at a fairly high rate in their home games the L3 seasons, but that's due to change here as you should take note their last game (a 105-103 loss to the Clippers) went to overtime, so that final score is a little misleading. It was a 94-94 game at the end of regulation.

Defensively, Detroit is much improved this year, ranking in the top 10 in points allowed. They allow only 96.8 PPG at home.  Boston could manage only 31 second points yday and keep in mind that was at home. They did not score more than 25 pts in any quarter vs. the Cavaliers.  All-around, shooting has typically not been very good in Celtics' games this season. They are bottom six in the league themselves at 43.0 percent overall while opponents shoot only 43.3 percent, which is top 10.  Look for a low-scoring game in the Motor City tonight.  8* Under Celtics/Pistons

8* Houston (10:05 ET):  The Rockets are experiencing a very different season this year compared to last as they've gone from the best ATS team in the league to one of the worst. Kevin McHale was the early season scapegoat and while the team recently was able to win five of six, they lost again last night, 114-108 in Denver.  The team is now 9-16 at the betting window this season, but the good news for tonight is that they find themselves undervalued in Sacramento.  Though I got burned last night, twice, teams playing the second of B2B road games typically are undervalued as Houston is here. The Rockets are at least a respectable 4-4 SU/ATS as dogs this year and Sacramento typically isn't a team you want to lay points with.

If anything, the Kings probably "deserve" to lose here. They will be w/o Rajon Rondo due to some shameful remarks he made to a referee.  Rondo was actually having a resurgence this year, after LY's "lost" season in Dallas.  This is not a deep team and they were already w/o rookie Willie Cauley-Stein to begin with.  Rondo's absence places a huge burden on Boogie Cousins to carry the team. Rondo total 33 points, 25 rebounds and 16 assists in Sacramento's wins over Utah and the Knicks the L2 games and I don't know where HC George Karl turns to fill that lost production.  Shooting has dictated their last two results as the Kings shot 55% from the field themselves against the Jazz and then held the Knicks to 39%. A repeat of either performance is unlikely here. 

Meanwhile, this is a good matchup for Houston and not just because they've gone 16-4 SU the L20 meetings w/ Sacramento, including eight straight wins.  Like the Rockets, the Kings struggle defensively and they are one of the few teams in the league to allow more points per game than Houston does.  That means this one likely comes down to the respective offenses and right now the Rockets simply have more firepower.  It appears as if Dwight Howard is actually going to play in this second game of a back to back, which is rare.   8* Houston

10* Stanford (10:00 ET):  DePaul was a major letdown for me Saturday night as they got blown out (at home!) by unbeaten Arkansas Little-Rock 66-44.  The Blue Demons were actually favored in that contest, so in retrospect that looks like a case of "bad read" by me (does happen from time to time!). Coming off a SU loss as a favorite, one might be inclined to call for some sort of bounce back, but the underdog role has not served this team very well as they are 0-3 ATS in it, including double digit losses to South Carolina and Florida State. Tonight, they take on a Stanford team that's better than its 4-3 SU record, which includes games against SMU, St. Mary's and Villanova, all of whom were unbeaten going into last week. I'll lay the points in this one.

Since losing to three in a row, Stanford has responded w/ back to back wins over Arkansas and Dartmouth.  The latter came after a two-week break for finals and the Cardinal responded as you might expect; by quickly opening up a double-digit lead and never trailing.  That was actually just the second time they were favored this year; the first being the season opener when they failed to cover an eight-point spot here at home against WI-Green Bay.  But they've gotten much stronger defensively since that time, allowing an average of just 58.3 points per game during a 3-0 ATS streak, which includes a game vs. Villanova (neutral site). Facing an opponent that just scored only 44 points on its home floor seems like an ideal matchup to me.

This is also a massive revenge spot for Stanford, who lost outright as eight-point favorites LY in Chicago, 87-72.  DePaul shot the ball very well in that game (54.4 percent overall) while Stanford did not, at least from three-point range where they went a dismal 4 for 19.  They also attempted 13 less free throws.  Going back to Saturday, consider that the Blue Demons' opponent shot just 40.7% from the field and still was able to win on the road by 22 points. Not a good sign at all. Stanford just doesn't lose at home very often (31-8 SU L39 games at Maples Pavillion), so I have little issue with the pointspread in this one. 10* Stanford

8* Puck Line Columbus (8:35 ET):  Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Blue Jackets +1.5.   Dallas may have emerged as the favorite in the Western Conference w/ a league-leading 46 points, but they are likely due to start regressing a bit and are off a 3-0 loss in St. Louis Saturday. Not surprisingly, they have fared well to this point in one-goal games, going 8-3 straight up. Columbus may be right next to Dallas in the NHL's alphabetical order, but otherwise these two clubs haven't been close all season as the Blue Jackets come in w/ the fewest points in the league (25). But since that ugly 0-8 start, they've actually gone a respectable 11-10-3 and five of their last six losses have been of the one-goal variety.  Time for some luck to start going Columbus' way.  Take the +1.5.

Now, you'll recall that I did just play against the Blue Jackets on Saturday (my 10* Game of the Week!) as they ended up falling to the Islanders, 3-2.  However, I had to sweat that one out more than anticipated as the game went into overtime. It was yet another painful one-goal defeat for the Jackets last night, 2-1 to Tampa Bay.  A major problem for this team right now, as discussed in Saturday's analysis, is the loss of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky.  Last night, they actually had to turn to a 21-year old rookie, Joonas Korpisalo, between the pipes. It's back to Curtis McElhinney tonight and while he's struggled for much of the year, one positive sign is that the team did outshoot the Islanders 30-19 w/ him in net on Saturday. A better performance from him and the team likely would have "stolen" that game. 

The world will likely be on Dallas here considering they haven't lost B2B games at any point this season and are off their first shutout loss.  They lead the league in scoring (3.4 goals per game).  But their goaltending, which was the one concern coming into the year, has started to slip.  Likely starting tonight is Kari Lehtonen and he has just an .881 save percentage his L4 starts overall. At home this year, the save percentage is identical. The Stars have been quite fortunate to this point and I see them doing no better than a one-goal victory here. 8* Puck Line Columbus (+1.5)

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I'm going back to this well again as the T'wolves' awful 3-9 SU/1-11 ATS home record is now REALLY "due" to improve, right?  As previously discussed, Minnesota has one of the most unusual home-road dichotomies going on in recent memory. While the young team has struggled to win at home, they are 6-5 SU/9-2 ATS on the road. My theory is that dichotomy is likely to start evening out over the long-term, and sure enough over the weekend we saw the T'wolves drop B2B road games in Denver & Phoenix. Tonight marks a chance to avenge one of those defeats, as the Nuggets come to town, and because of the past struggles it does appear that the home side is undervalued in this one. Lay the points. 

Denver had to play last night. They won for a second consecutive time, despite giving up 108 points. While it was a 111-108 final score against Minnesota on Friday, they won 114-108 over Houston on Monday.  A fast start (shot 68.2 percent in the 1st quarter and scored 36 points) was the key last night as the Nuggets were able to absorb the Rockets "answering the bell" w/ a 36-18 edge in the second quarter. Also key for Denver was the way they dominated the interior.  I don't see that happening here against a Minnesota team that more often than not wins the rebounding battle.  The offense has been way above average for the Nuggets of late, so I project a decline starting tonight. The team is just 2-7 ATS after scoring 105+ points its previous game. 

Though they've been scoring more than usual of late, Denver still only ranks 26th in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. They also rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, so this clearly is still a team that's a work in progress.  So too is Minnesota, but I believe the T'wolves will come in as the more "desperate" side here as they look to snap an ugly 1-6 SU slide.  Denver is just 1-4 ATS coming off a SU win as a dog and is 1-4 SU playing in the second game of a back to back. It looks as if Nuggets PG Emmanuel Mudiay is going to be out again, which hurts in the second night of a B2B.  Minnesota blew a 15-point halftime lead when these teams met Friday and won by 17 in Denver earlier this year, so they know this is an opponent they can dominate. For the 1st time this year, the T'wolves will cover as a favorite. 10* Minnesota

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): These two teams appear to be trending in very different directions. The Wild, playing on home ice here, have won four of six including a 2-0 shutout at San Jose on Saturday. Meanwhile, visiting Vancouver has dropped six of eight, most recently getting shut out in their own right, 4-0 in Chicago on Sunday.  All of a sudden, goal scoring has become a major concern for the Canucks as not only have their last two losses been of the shutout variety, but more often than not they are failing to even get many scoring chances. They opened December w/ three consecutive games of 17 or fewer shots, which is just awful, and now get set to take on a Minnesota club that has allowed all of five goals its L6 games. Bad matchup for the road team here.

The Wild's only two losses over their L6 games both came in OT.  Amazingly, they were able to turn in yet another shutout on Saturday, despite losing the services of Devan Dubnyk, who has a .960 save percentage his L4 starts. It was Darcy Keumper between the pipes against the Sharks and he responded w/ 25 saves in what was his fourth consecutive start, two of those resulting in shutout victories. Keumper deserves a better record as he has yet to taste defeat in regulation all season and has a .920 save percentage. The Wild lead the league w/ seven shutout victories, so goaltending clearly is no issue right now in the Twin Cities. Provided they get the requisite amount of offense tonight, they should be just fine. Here at home, they are limiting opponents to just 1.9 goals per game for the year!

Vancouver has not fared well this season when stepping up in competition, going just 4-12 vs. teams with a winning record. They have a YTD goal differential of -7 while Minnesota is +7.  In addition to goaltending, it looks like Minnesota has two other key advantages in this one.  One is that they have had an additional day off between games.  Two is the benefit of home ice. The Wild have emerged victorious in 10 of 14 games at the XCel Center this season while the Canucks have lost four straight decisions on the road since actually winning here back on November 25th. So, there's a revenge angle present here as well. 8* Minnesota

8* Utah (8:35 ET):  The Jazz are off a brutal loss on Sunday, falling 104-98 to the Thunder in overtime. They blew a double-digit halftime lead and despite scoring only two points in OT, OKC did enough for me to just barely send the game Over the total (I do realize that the number closed higher for some). There's no time for Utah to "cry over spilled milk," however, as tonight they are in San Antonio to play a Spurs team that has stayed under the radar due to Golden State's historic start.  That's just the way Greg Popovich likes it though as his team is 20-5 straight up (12-0 here at home) and outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per game. That being said, this is a really big number to lay in a game where so few points are expected (O/U line is 185.5!). I'm on the dog here.

Take nothing away from San Antonio, but to this point they have played the easiest schedule in the entire league, at least according to opponents' current win percentage.   Helping to inflate this line is the fact that the Spurs just destroyed the Hawks, in Atlanta, Saturday night. The final score there was 103-78 in a game they were only 2.5-point favorites.  Again, take your hat off for them, but it is highly unlikely that the Jazz will shoot as poorly here as the Hawks did in that game (just 37.5% overall).  Of course, we are also getting a good value here due to the fact Utah had to play on the road last night. Regular readers/clients of mine know I highly value this spot as the line is often shaded too high in favor of the rested home team (why I'm playing Philadelphia as well tonight). I've been making a veritable killing playing said spot this season.

Utah may only be 12-27 ATS its L39 trips to San Antonio, but this is a much better Jazz team than those past editions. The Spurs are #1 (by a mile) in the league right now in terms of defensive efficiency (allow just 91.9 points per 100 possessions, which is nearly five points fewer than the #2 team!). But the Jazz also rank near the top of the league in fewest points allowed, giving up just 96.5 PPG on the season.  They are also 8-2 ATS as underdogs this season, so expect this one to go down to the wire, despite the fact that the Jazz are playing w/o rest. They are 3-1 SU/ATS playing in the second night of a back to back this season.  8* Utah

10* NY Giants (8:30 ET):  Talk about a "must-win" situation for the Giants. Granted, that doesn't necessarily mean they WILL win, and certainly the G-Men have been a difficult team to figure out this year. They've been outgained in 10 of 12 games so far (not good!), but had the lead in all but one. Four times they have blown a fourth quarter lead, last week included, so despite what the total yardage says, they probably should have a better record. They enter Monday night one-half game back of Washington & Philadelphia (both won yday) in the weak NFC East and considering the next two games are against Carolina and Minnesota, winning here truly is a "must." Miami has the same 5-7 SU record, but is essentially out of contention in the stronger AFC. Lay the points.

The Dolphins have also been outgained in 10 of their 12 games this year, so this is a good matchup for the Giants. While the teams may have the same record and have been equally poor at winning the total yardage battle, YTD point differential tells a different story and explains why the road team is favored in this spot. Miami has been outscored by 60 points this season while the Giants have actually scored 11 more points than their opponents.  So, I don't think that the road team is favored by nearly enough in this one. Yes, favorites have done a terrible job on Monday nights this year, going 2-11-1 ATS, and you'd have to all the way back to Week 6 to find the last time one covered. Ironically, it was the Eagles against these Giants 27-7 (as 3.5 pt chalk) getting it done in that spot. But, despite an 0-4 SU/ATS road record on MNF, Eli Manning & the Giants are "due" here.

The Giants come in on a three-game losing streak, but those three losses have come by a combined 10 points.  Meanwhile, Miami has routinely been blown out this year and its last four losses have ALL come by double digits while its last two wins have been by a total of three points. The 'Fins were outgained 375-219 last week by Baltimore, at home, and had only EIGHT first downs. A scoreless tie quickly became a 15-0 lead after two TD's in a 20 second span in the second quarter. One of the touchdowns came from the defense though and that cannot be counted on in a week to week basis.  Miami is 0-3 ATS its L3 appearances on Monday Night Football and is not ready for "primetime."  10* NY Giants

10* Over Giants/Dolphins (8:30 ET):  Both of these teams come in at 5-7 SU and have been outgained in 10 of their 12 games. So, from that perspective, they appear to be evenly matched.  Also, neither has a very good defense (Miami 27th, Giants 31st) in terms of yards allowed.  While I absolutely prefer one side in this matchup (don't miss my *10* SUPER POWER), I love the total even more. Considering how bad the respective defenses have been, I'm on the Over in this one.  Yes, Under players had a big day Sunday and Miami is off an awful offensive performance in its last game. But, those factors have helped keep this number lower than what it should be.  Take the Over.

There have been just two games all season where the Giants have failed to score 20 points.  Both came against division opponents. The most recent being a rematch w/ Washington (typically divisional rematches lower scoring than the original).  Including that game, the G-Men are off their lowest scoring two-game stretch of the season as LW saw them get held to only 20 points in a loss to the Jets. They would have scored more, and possibly won, had it not been for a failed fourth down attempt inside the 5-yard line.  The Redskins & Jets also have solid defenses.  The Dolphins do not.  They allow 25 points and 390 yards per game and have given up 33+ in three of their last six games.  Eli Manning has averaged 300+ yards passing the L3 weeks and had averaged over 40 attempts per game over a four-game stretch prior to LW.

While the Giants offense should have a big night, it would be wrong to expect their defense to pitch a shutout.  They are dead last in the league, allowing 424 YPG (6.2 yard per play!), so expect Miami to do better than the paltry 15 points and 219 yards they put up last week vs. Baltimore.  QB Ryan Tannehill should fare well against the league's worst pass defense, but the real key here is probably the Giants' own rushing attack going up against a Dolphins' run defense that allows 134.8 yards per game.  I look for this one to turn into a shootout. 10* Over Giants/Dolphins

8* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): We have a team playing the second of back to back road games here and while "it's the Sixers," there's still value to be had in this spot. I've written before about how I don't think this Chicago team is living up to its vaunted reputation as they are outscoring opponents by only a meager 0.4 points per 100 possessions, so they are hardly an outstanding candidate to be laying double digits to anyone at this juncture, even the lowly 76ers.  Philly is a solid 4-2 ATS when taking 12.5 or more points this year and this will likely be the most weight Chicago lays in a game all season.  Take the points.

Overall, the Bulls have gone just 1-5 at the betting window here in December and while they've won B2B games SU, those victories have come by a collective seven points. Both were here at home. You'd have to go back quite a long way to find this team's last double-digit victory. It did come in Philadelphia, back on November 9th, 111-88 as 10.5-pt chalk. But that win also represents their ONLY win by 10 or more points all season!  A 10-4 SU record in games decided by six points or less is what's kept them afloat. Sometimes, it is better to be "lucky than good" and make no mistake about it, a record such as that one represents good "luck."  It's no surprise to me to find Chicago at just 4-11 ATS when favored considering they are 28th in the league in offensive efficiency.  Only the Lakers and 76ers are worse.

Philadelphia lost by 20 last night in Toronto as they fell to a horrid 1-24 straight up this season.  However, for much of the game, it was a lot closer. It was actually a six-point game midway through the fourth quarter! Had they shot better (33 percent overall!) or scored more than 32 points in the second half, the margin wouldn't have been as great.  Really, it's that simple. Also, turning the ball over 22 times did the Sixers no favors.  Points off turnovers have just killed them all season as no team in the league has allowed more.  But in what shapes up as a low-scoring affair, taking the points is the way to go.  8* Philadelphia

10* Over Heat/Hawks (8:05 ET):  Though last night's game, a 100-97 come from behind win over Memphis, managed to go Over the total, the fact remains that Miami has been an Under bettor's "best friend" in the early part of the season.  The Under is now 17-5 in all of their games this season, including a perfect 7-0 on the road.  But don't think for a second that the oddsmakers are unaware of this little trend as tonight we have a really low total for the Heat's matchup with the Hawks.  Now, similarly, Atlanta has gone Under the total in six straight games.  But all this talk of Unders leads me to believe that we've reached a "tipping point" of sorts and it's time to go Over the total instead.  Yes, take the Over here.

Miami certainly hasn't had much luck against their Southeast Division rival the L3 seasons, going just 1-7 SU/ATS against them, including 0-4 SU/ATS here in Atlanta.  Earlier this year, it was a 98-92 Hawks' win on South Beach as the Heat shot a woeful 5 for 28 from three-point range, just 17.8%.  Needless to say, I would expect a higher shooting percentage this evening. Of particular interest to me here is the fact that tonight's total is nearly seven full points lower than what it was for that first matchup. So, clearly the oddsmakers have taken notice of what the Heat have been doing.  It's times like this that I like to take advantage of such a "market shift."  The Hawks are 12-4 Over their L16 home games when the O/U line falls into the 190 to 194.5 point range.

Now, Atlanta is coming off an ugly performance its last time out, a 103-78 loss to the Spurs.  That was here at home and it ended up being the Hawks' lowest scoring game of the season to date.  But considering the O/U line was 200 points or higher four of their previous five games, I'd say there's some pretty significant value to be had here.  As is the case w/ Miami from the last meeting, Atlanta should see its own shooting improve from the game against San Antonio where they finished just 37.5 percent from the field, including an awful 5 of 24 from three-point range.  They certainly should do better than 25 points in the first half, which is what they had vs. the Spurs, here. That's for certain. 10* Over Heat/Hawks

9* Under Kings/Senators (7:35 ET): The Kings are in the midst of a six-game swing out East and off their first loss in seven games as, surprisingly, they fell 2-1 at lowly Buffalo.  So, this could be a bit of a letdown spot as the head "North of the border" for a date w/ Ottawa. Meanwhile, the Sens are returning home after their own four-game trip, one that did not end well as they were held to just one goal three times, including in B2B losses to Tampa Bay and Montreal. Going up against Jonathan Quick certainly isn't likely to alleviate those offensive issues as LA's goalie brings in a superb .937 save percentage in 11 non-conference starts this year. At the same time, Ottawa's Craig Anderson has a .923 save percentage at home.  Take the Under.

Los Angeles, as per usual, is doing an excellent job at controlling the puck. They are averaging 34.0 shots per game on the road this season, but managed only 21 in the loss to Buffalo Saturday.  That was the team's third straight game going past regulation, so considering the road trip, tired legs could be an issue tonight. Note that none of those last three games have seen more than five total goals scored, despite extra time.  Of course, the Kings lead the league in fewest goals allowed per game at just 2.1.  Quick is the driving force behind that and is back in net tonight after having Saturday off. He made 40 saves the last time we saw him, a shootout win in Pittsburgh Friday night.  He'll bring a 1.57 goals against average his L8 starts and 2.01 career GAA vs. Ottawa into tonight's contest.

Anderson is listed as the probable starter for the Senators here, but if he can't go, it's most likely the recently recalled Andrew Hammond (remember him?) between the pipes.  Either way, I like the team's chances at keeping the Kings from lighting the lamp.  The "Hamburgler" has a .930 save percentage in his four starts this year. Offensively though, the Senators have finished w/ 26 shots or fewer in three of their past four games and are unlikely to solve Quick.  Talk about value; this will be the first Kings' road game all season where the total is 5.5. The Under is 8-4 this season in Ottawa home games when the total is 5.5.  9* Under Kings/Senators

8* Houston (8:30 ET):  This game was "flexed" into the Sunday Night spot to save us from watching a potential massacre of the Ravens by Seattle. Ironically, it wasn't that long ago that you wouldn't have thought this particular matchup would be very competitive either. But, despite a loss last week in Buffalo, the Texans have really improved while at the same time, New England has suddenly dropped B2B games after a 10-0 start (I correctly went against them both times!). There will be a general aversion to going against Brady & Belichick here due to the duo's scarcity of three-game losing streaks together, but I don't think the small sample size really justifies the trend, plus it's not like the public has stopped backing the Patriots as a small road favorite here either.  Still depleted, the Patriots remain fade material (at least for the time being). Take the points.

Houston had won and covered four straight before losing 30-21 to Buffalo last week. But don't be "fooled" by the final score there as it was actually a tie game with just two minutes remaining. The Texans rolled up 400 yards of offense and had more first downs (21-15) than the Bills, but ultimately were undone by a late Brian Hoyer interception.  But Hoyer (a much better option at QB than the failed experiment known as Ryan Mallet) has generally taken good care of the football this season, particularly when in the red zone, where he hasn't thrown a single INT all season. So, I'm willing to write off LW's pick as a matter of late-game desperation. Of course, the strength of this Texans teams is the defense, led by the incomparable JJ Watt.  During the four-game win streak, they allowed just 35 pts total (only 2 TD's, one in garbage time) and remember this team beat then-unbeaten Cincinnati on the road, so an upset here would not be w/o precedent.

There definitely was a confluence of events that conspired to beat the Patriots last week, namely three non-offensive touchdowns by the Eagles. But it should be pointed out that the offense was largely held in check after getting out to an early 14-0 lead and that obviously can be pinned on the fact that TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Julian Edelman, Brady's top two targets, were out of action. Neither will be in action Sunday night. This is just a beat up team right now and the idea that, at any point this season, they were comparable to the '07 team that went into the Super Bowl unbeaten was laughable. New England is a surprisingly bad 2-5 SU/ATS as a road favorite of three points or less the last three seasons. 8* Houston

10* Over Jazz/Thunder (7:05 ET):  This is the second game of a home and home between these two Northwest Division rivals. Friday, it was Oklahoma City winning by four (as four-point favorites) in Utah. But, for our purposes here, the focus is on that it was such a low-scoring game (94-90), staying WAY under the total.  Dating back to right before Thanksgiving, the Thunder have been an Under team. They are 8-1 Under their L9 games; this despite being second in the league (behind Golden State obviously) in terms of offensive efficiency. High totals are responsible for the Under streak, though that really hasn't been the determining factor that the Under is a perfect 6-0 the L6 meetings with the Jazz. That being said, I like the Over here.

Neither of these teams shot the ball particularly well Friday. Oklahoma City was at 46.8 percent, Utah was at 42.3 percent. The Jazz really struggled from three-point range, going 8 for 28, and I'd expect them to improve in that department Sunday. I say that because they remain one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league this season at 36.6 percent.  At the same time, Utah has begun to slip a bit defensively, allowing 100+ points in four of the last six games. Not having Rudy Gobert in the middle hurts. Note that the first time these teams played this season, OKC scored 111 points.  The Thunder's YTD offensive numbers would look even better had Kevin Durant not missed several games.

The key for this Over bet is Utah also improving on the offensive end. I already spoke about the three-point shooting and that's going to be huge as in five of the last six meetings w/ OKC, they've been below 29 percent from behind the arc. They have not won here in OKC in eight tries, never scoring more than 96 points. I'd say they are due to break through that benchmark. The Thunder have been surprisingly good on the defensive end recently, allowing fewer than 100 pts in nine of the last 11 games, including an average of 89.5 in the two wins over the Jazz.  But the Over is on a 10-4 run in Thunder home games when the total falls into the 200 to 204.5 point range. 10* Over Jazz/Thunder

10* Over Canucks/Blackhawks (7:05 ET): In past analysis, I've gone over Chicago's tendency to put significantly more shots on goal when at home compared to on the road. That dichotomy has played out again this season (though not nearly as striking as LY) as they are averaging 31.1 shots per game at the "Madhouse on Madison," roughly one more per game than they average in road games.  However, it was goaltending that brought home the victory Friday here against Winnipeg, a 2-0 final. It was the fifth time in the last six games that they finished w/ 31 or more shots though and I simply cannot see this 8-3 Under run in their home games continuing. When they played Vancouver earlier this year, the final score was 6-3 (in the Canucks' favor) despite just 49 total shots.  Take the Over.

Vancouver actually needed only 20 shots to score those six goals, which is downright shocking.  They too are off a low-scoring result, but they'll take it as it was a 2-1 win over the Rangers. That followed a five-goal effort in a win over Buffalo as the Canucks try and turn things around after a five-game slide where they were shut out twice. Unlike Chicago, they have NOT been doing a good job at getting the puck on net (just 21.0 shots per game L5), but they've been much better the last two (56 total) after registering just 49 total the previous three (very low!). 

Corey Crawford is expected to be back in net for the 'Hawks after sitting out the win against Nashville (rest). I've said it before, but I think the team is leaning far too much on him.  It will be almost impossible for him to maintain a .950 save percentage from his L4 starts, so again, it is very important that Vancouver gets a good number of shots on goal here.  Chicago's penalty killing was awful in the first meeting vs. the Canucks, giving up three goals in four chances. Vancouver gets pretty mediocre goaltending and has pretty mediocre special teams as well.  Look for this one to "sneak" Over the total.  10* Over Canucks/Blackhawks

10* Oakland (4:05 ET):  It wasn't that long ago that the Raiders were riding high and many were calling them one of the "most improved" teams in the league. However, going into a game at Pittsburgh (on November 8th), I proclaimed the Silver & Black's "stock" to be at an all-time high and going forward, it would probably be a good idea to "sell."  While I ended up w/ a losing ticket on the Steelers in that Week 9 matchup, sure enough I was right in the long-term as Oakland has won only one of its last five games and now finds itself on the fringes of playoff contention in the AFC.  At 5-7 SU overall, one more loss essentially eliminates them, so I expect a strong effort from Jack Del Rio's team this week in Denver, an opponent that has admittedly not been kind to them through the years.  But take the points as this is another division dog w/ plenty of bite this week.

Even before Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, the Broncos had enjoyed a long history of dominating the Raiders.  In fact, a 16-10 road win back in Week 5 made it eight consecutive wins and covers for Denver in this AFC West rivalry. As we all know, it's no longer Manning under center for the Broncos, now it's Brock Osweiler. Since the change was made (out of necessity), Denver has gone a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS, including an upset of the then-unbeaten Patriots at home.  But let's be clear, like the Raiders one month ago, Osweiler's own personal stock has now gotten a little too high as far as I'm concerned. The offense has twice, in three games, failed to top 17 points and against New England, they had just seven entering the fourth quarter. So Osweiler laying his first big number as a starter may not be such a great idea here. Especially w/ the Raiders being a 5-3 ATS as underdogs this year (four SU wins).

There have been two keys for Denver since the change from Manning to Osweiler was made. One is a resurgent running game that has averaged 161 yards per game. The Oakland defense, save for one bad day against Adrian Peterson, has done a good job stopping the run this year (107 YPG allowed). So, I look for them to limit the Broncos' production on the ground.  Also, the Broncos have been turning in over far less the L3 games than they were w/ the error-prone Manning.  Turnovers were the downfall of the Raiders last week at home vs. Kansas City as Derek Carr tossed three interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. The Raiders actually outgained a good Chiefs team for the game, 361-233, and had 12 more first downs.  This could very well end up being a low-scoring game, which means taking the points is the way to go. 10* Oakland

8* UC Santa Barbara (3:00 ET): Looking at UCSB's non-conference slate thus far, one takeaway I have is that it's a good thing the Gauchos aren't in the Pac 12.  Some VERY aggressive early  season scheduling has had them play FOUR Pac 12 team thus far, all resulting in losses. So, I don't put a ton of stock into this 2-4 SU record of theirs considering that they've actually been an underdog in every game. That role doesn't change Sunday afternoon as they play ANOTHER "true" road game (5th already!) at South Dakota State, who is 8-1 straight up and a perfect 6-0 against the spread.  The Jackrabbits have taken their own act out on the road several times as well and are off a surprising win at Minnesota Tuesday. But, to me, the key here is that UCSB has had plenty of time to prepare as their last game took place all the way back on December 3rd.  Take the points.

In addition to winning at Minnesota earlier this week, SDSU has also gone to both Illinois State and TCU and pulled off outright upsets (each time as a very small dog) on the road.  Interestingly enough, their one loss came at the hands of the one non-board team they faced on the road, Missouri-KC.  That game saw them shoot a season-worst 39.7 percent from the field.  But the Jackrabbits were impressive before and ever since, particularly against Minnesota, whom they led from start to finish (including a 23-pt advantage at the half!). This is the favorite in the Summit League this season (made the NCAA Tournament in 2012, 2013, then won 24 games LY). However, I think that the fast start has them overvalued here against an opponent that will be rested and ready.

SDSU hasn't lost a home game since January, but UCSB is no stranger to the road.  The Gauchos are 17-12 ATS out on the road the L3 seasons, including a 3-1 mark this year. Having already gone into a variety of hostile environments this season, they won't be intimidated in the least by today's venue. Note that two of their losses have been by a combined three points.  Ten days ago against USC, they trailed by only three at the half and it was a two point game inside of six minutes to go. Late free throws were responsible for the final margin.  I just think that South Dakota State's stock is a little too high right now.  8* UC Santa Barbara

10* Under Steelers/Bengals (1:00 ET):  If you were on board last week, then perhaps you'll recall how I laid out a theory behind divisional rematches, generally, ending up lower scoring than the original. Things played out just the way I'd hoped with Arizona-St. Louis as the two combined for only 30 points, which 16 points fewer than they combined for in the first meeting and more importantly 13 fewer than the posted total. It's a bit of a different situation this week with Pittsburgh at Cincinnati as we will have two offenses to worry about, not one (St. Louis was a virtual non-factor in LW's play), and while these two AFC North rivals played to a 16-10 final the first go-around, it's not likely we will be getting a lower-scoring rematch here. But, then again, it doesn't have to be. The oddsmakers have been "kind enough" to give us plenty of points to work with; even though the first meeting stayed way Under the total. This one will too. Take the Under.

Cincinnati destroyed Cleveland last week in what was a rare bad call by me and one of only two losses I took in Week 13 (went 7-2 overall). But while that particular matchup ended up being completely lopsided (37-3), total yardage was actually fairly even until late in the third quarter when two late Bengals' drives accounted for 60 yards. It should also be noted that 23 of the Bengals' 37 points came after the Browns turned it over via a fumble/INT/downs or a missed field goal. Pittsburgh's defense, which allows just 20.0 points per game, will clearly offer greater resistance. Of course, you can't sleep on this Bengals' defense either as it is #1 in the league in points allowed and gives up only 15.2 PPG at home, and is the driving force behind the fact the team has gone Under in five of its last six games. During that time, they've allowed 10 pts or fewer five times!

Pittsburgh's offense exploded for a season-high 45 points last week in their own beatdown (of Indianapolis), a  Sunday night game where I cashed them in the 1st half. That made it four consecutive games of 30+ points for the Steelers, but I seriously doubt they'll even approach that threshold here. I was surprised to find that the Black & Gold average only 20 PPG on the road and remember that Ben Roethlisberger was the QB when they were held to a season-low 10 points in the first meeting w/ the Bengals.  Not only that, but Big Ben was held to a season low in yards per pass attempt (5.8).  Cincinnati's offense was held to just six points until the final three minutes of that game! Again, I'm not sure this will be a lower-scoring game than the first matchup (probably won't), but it doesn't have to be and I love the fact that the number was bet up during the course of the week. 10* Under Steelers/Bengals

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET):  This is, perhaps, a matchup of the two worst teams in the league. Actually, I would take the "perhaps" out of my previous statement as I do indeed have the 49ers ranked 31st in my own power ratings while the Browns now come in at 32nd ie. dead last. As awful as Cleveland may have looked last week w/ journeyman Austin Davis at QB (and they certainly did look awful in a 37-3 home loss to the Bengals), they do deserve to be a slight favorite here at home.  What is the likelihood of San Francisco, who is being outscored by 16.5 points per game on the road, picking up B2B wins out East in consecutive games? I say "not high" and the Browns' move to Johnny Manziel at quarterback should (in theory) lead to a temporary spark.  Lay the short number in this "battle of bad." 

The 49ers won for a fourth time, last week in Chicago.  But it was largely a "phony" victory, one that came in overtime and had the Bears outgaining them 364-291. A badly missed field goal (was very makeable) by Bears K Robbie Gould is what gave San Fran "second life" and the opportunity to win in OT.  Simply put, the 49ers have not been able to maintain any kind of success this season as following their three previous wins, they've proceeded to go 0-3 SU/ATS the following week, losing by an average of more than 19 PPG!  Granted, they twice had to face Seattle, plus Pittsburgh.  But last week also marked the team's first road win of the season.  I'm not putting much stock into this "new and improved Blaine Gabbert" concept. Before throwing the game winning TD pass against the Bears, he was 0 for 4 for the game on attempts of 10+ yards downfield. The Niners' offense has also been fortunate not to turn the ball over in five of their last seven games. Gabbert has NEVER won B2B starts in his career, going 0 for 6 in that role. 

Yes, two weeks ago saw San Francisco put a scare into Arizona and I was on them. But that game was at home. As I stated earlier, this team has been downright awful on the road, getting outscored by 16.5 PPG.  The issues has been the defense, which allows double the amount of points per game on the road as it does at home. It's not like this is an explosive offense either; last week marked just the third time all season (1st under Gabbert) that they topped 20 points.   I realize that Cleveland gives us very little to "hang our hat" on here, but having failed to cover six straight games, I get the feeling that they are due for one more win this season (still likely to get #1 overall draft pick).  Telling here is that despite the majority of bets coming in on the Niners here, the line has moved in the Browns' direction, a potential indicator of "smart money" being on the home side. That makes me feel good as does the fact that the advanced line for this game (set last week) was Browns -3.  8* Cleveland

8* San Diego (1:00 ET):  I'll be the first to admit that my own personal power ratings suggest that there may not be too much value on the dog in this one.  The Chargers are in the midst of what I'd dub a "lost" season as a number of key injuries have taken their toll and the results have been ugly: 3-9 straight up & 4-8 against the spread.  Last week, at home vs. Denver, saw the offense get held to only three points for the second time in three weeks (in between was a win at Jacksonville). The other occasion came in the first meeting w/ the Chiefs, this week's opponent, who are a red-hot 6-0 SU/ATS their L6 games. When it comes to performance in division games this season, you won't find two teams any further apart than these two, yet I've always been a big believer in division dogs getting more than a touchdown. I'll stick to my principles here and take the points.

Kansas City has been playing as well as anybody over the L2 months.  Last week, despite not having their best player on EITHER side of the ball (remember that Jamaal Charles is out for the year), they still beat the Raiders 34-20. But that final margin was a little misleading when you consider that the Chiefs actually trailed (20-14) going into the fourth quarter and it was a one-score game before a late INT was returned for a touchdown. KC was actually outgained in the contest, 361-232, and Oakland had almost double the number of first downs (27-15).  What caught my interest here is that this is the most points the Chiefs will have had to lay in any game this season. The previous high was a nine-point spread and they lost that game outright, here at home, to Chicago (game where Charles was injured). During this six-game win streak of theirs, Kansas City has only once had to lay more than a field goal (4.5 to Buffalo).  Despite a recent scoring surge, which has actually been a byproduct of a +15 turnover margin above all else, this is NOT an offense built to cover spreads this large. Too many times I've seen the Chiefs bog down in the red zone and settle for field goals this year.

You have to feel somewhat for Philip Rivers and the Chargers.  Injuries and a lack of homefield advantage have really killed morale "in the building."  There have also been a number of close losses suffered, six by eight points or less in fact, that helped sink their season.  Given the mood around San Diego right now (franchise could be moving), it actually might be nice for the team to play a game on the road here. Public betting, surprisingly enough, has been fairly split on this contest, possibly due to the fact that more people are aware that double digit dogs in division games have cashed 57.7% ATS the L13 seasons.  This is just too many points to lay for a Chiefs team that is only outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per game.  8* San Diego

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET):  Carolina very nearly suffered their first loss of the season last week, in New Orleans, but ended up outlasting the Saints by a score of 41-38.  But they didn't cover as 7.5-pt chalk and that was good enough for me to cash my 10* NFL Game of the Week! You have to think that they would have gone down had they been facing any other defense besides the Saints' woeful 32nd ranked unit, which gave up almost 500 yards in the loss as well as 33 first downs. Still, that hasn't stopped the public from "getting down" again on the now 12-0 Panthers this week as they host a desperate Atlanta team. As I said last week, betting against unbeaten teams this time of year is typically a good idea as the odds are against them running the table. Sure enough, we've seen once 10-0 New England drop consecutive contests and Carolina, while 9-3 ATS overall, is due to regress. Take the points.

You may have forgotten, but both of these teams started the season 5-0 SU. Since then, they've clearly headed in opposite directions w/ Atlanta winning only one more game and actually failing to cover the last eight! This is the longest ATS skid I've seen in a while and it's not hyperbole to say this week's game is likely determines the Falcons' season. At 6-6, another loss would put them two games back of Minnesota, who has already beaten them. Winning this game straight up, on the road, may be too tall an order, but thankfully the oddsmakers have been kind enough to give us more than a touchdown to work with here. Atlanta, who went off as the favorite in most places last week, has not been an underdog since Week 3. At that point, they had been a dog in all three games and wouldn't you know it, the result was a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record. This is easily the most points that Matt Ryan and company have taken in any game all season (previous high +3 vs. Philadelphia in Wk 1).

Though they've lost five in a row straight up, it's not like the Falcons have been getting routinely routed. In fact, four of those losses have been by four points or less, last week included.  There, they blew a late lead in Tampa Bay, allowing Bucs' QB Jameis Winston to convert a 3rd and 19 on a scramble (that can't happen!) on a drive that resulted in the go-ahead score. From there, Ryan threw another back-breaking interception, which has been this team's Achilles' heel during the losing streak.  Atlanta is -8 in turnover margin its last eight games. During that same timeframe, Carolina is +6 and for the year they lead the league in TO margin. While the Falcons have been losing a lot of close games recently, the Panthers are 6-0 SU in one-score games this season.  Look for these numbers to even out on Sunday and, again, don't discount the impact the return of RB Devonta Freeman has on the Falcons' offense. 8* Atlanta

8* St. Louis (1:00 ET):  It's a "buy low" theme in this week's 3-game report and certainly it's hard to get any lower right now than the Rams, who have been crushed in B2B games, scoring only 10 points in the process. The team's offensive woes extend far beyond the previous two games, however, as they have averaged less than 11 points per game during a five-game losing streak (0-5 ATS as well) thanks to some sub-replacement level QB play from both Nick Foles and Case Keenum.  HC Jeff Fisher most certainly now finds himself on the hot seat and if the team can't finish the season reasonably strong, I'd say it's time for he and the franchise to part ways. Predictably, St. Louis is drawing little to no support at the betting window here, which is just fine by me, as I question the morale of a Detroit team coming in off a crushing loss.

By now, you've all seen the replay (at least 100 times, I suspect!) of what happened to the Lions last Thursday against Green Bay as they fell victim to an Aaron Rodgers' hail mary pass w/ no time remaining (2nd time this season a game has been won on an untimed down!). For a team w/ little to play for the rest of the way, it is fair to question what Detroit will have "left in the tank" for this one. Yes, the offense has been much better since Jim Bob Cooter was elevated to the offensive coordinator.  But there have still been only two times all season where the team has scored more than 23 points. Last week, after racing to an early 17-0 lead over the Packers (thanks in part to a rare Aaron Rodgers' interception), things really bogged down w/ only a pair of field goals the rest of the way. The Rams may not bring much to the table these days, but they do have a defense which allows just 19.8 PPG here at home and that will serve them well Sunday.

The key to this play will be the St. Louis' offense doing something, dare I say anything against the Detroit defense.  After three straight surprisingly strong efforts, the Lions were back to their "old ways," allowing 27 points last week and they only have themselves to blame on that Hail Mary pass as it was defended very poorly.  The Rams made their own change at offensive coordinator this week and hopefully that leads to a resurgence for rookie RB Todd Gurley, who has been held in check the last few games. Keenum will be back under center and honestly, I feel he's a better option at this point than Foles. I'll close by mentioning that a team as bad as the Lions should not be a road favorite. 8* St. Louis

10* Luke Rockhold (11:30 ET):  This fight is for the UFC Middleweight Championship (185 lbs) and most fight fans and insiders alike are calling the matchup a "toss-up," so in my estimation that makes the challenger Rockhold an excellent value as the underdog.  Pretty much the only reason champion Chris Weidman checks in as the slight favorite is the fact he is the champion and most probably recall his two wins over Anderson Silva, the once "pound for pound king."  But this certainly shapes up as Weidman's toughest test to date as Rockhold has better striking and stamina.  I see a new champion being crowned Saturday night in Vegas!

Much is being made these days in UFC circles about the IV ban, which will have a drastic effect on a fighter's ability to cut a large amount of weight in a short time prior to a fight.  I think that Weidman will be one of the fighters most affected by the ban as he typically would cut a lot of weight right before having to weigh in. Reportedly, he looked to be about 189 lbs earlier this week, decidedly smaller than we've seen him in the past at this point before a fight (typically 205-210).  I'm very interested to see what the numbers are at the weigh-in, but I do know that Rockhold never has an issue cutting weight naturally and more than likely will come into the Octagon as the bigger fighter here.  That could play a significant role.

Rockhold has the longer reach and is the better striker here as well.  He's lost just one time in his last 14 fights and that came against Vitor Belfort (in Brazil), who needless to say should not have been able to pass any kind of drug test going into that fight.  Before that loss, Rockhold finished off six straight opponents in the first round at one point and also handed top contender Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (who is fighting on the undercard of this show) a decision loss as well.  Rockhold earned this title shot by destroying Lyoto Machida in April, making it four straight finishes in the first or second round for him.  However, I'd say the longer this fight goes, the more it favors the challenger as Weidman has only had to go to the cards once in his last eight fights and looked pretty gassed in doing so. 10* Luke Rockhold

10* DePaul (10:00 ET):  If you're a regular reader/subscriber, then you already know that I've been strategically targeting the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, which is now down to 10 teams. Three of them are underdogs Saturday, one of them being possibly the least known of the lot, Arkansas Little-Rock.  The Trojans come in at 7-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, but let's face the fact that we still know very little about this team despite a pair of upsets (on the road!) over San Diego State and Tulsa. They just got done playing the slowest game of the week (credit KenPom), a 64-54 win over Idaho, their second opponent this year that rates outside the top 250. They've also played three non-lined (meaning non D-I) opponents.  I look for Depaul to hand them their first loss of the season. Lay the points.

The Blue Demons seem to be over an early season three-game slide as they've won four straight, three of those coming by double digits. They too are off a road win, 74-71 at Drake on Wednesday, a game where their early season shooting success continued. They finished at 57.1% from the field for the game, the third time in the last four games they were at 54 percent or better.  Facing an opponent that is allowing just 54.6 PPG on 35.7% shooting will undoubtedly be a challenge, but one the Blue Demons should be up for.  Four players finished in double figures against Drake and there have been three times this season the team has scored 80+.  Depaul is 4-0 SU as a favorite this season and 14-5 SU in that role the past three seasons.

As for ALR, they are off an extended break and history says that will not be kind to them.  The Trojans are just 1-7 ATS the L3 seasons when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest and that amount of time off can really break a team's "momentum" (granted, I hate that word), especially one that is off to the best start in program history.  Tip your cap to the Trojans for being tied for the most "true" road wins in the country (3), but their unbeaten run ends tonight in what is an unusually late start time (favors the home side) on national TV.  I just don't think the Trojans have the horses to keep pace in what likely ends up as their highest scoring game to date.  10* DePaul

10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET):  Subscribers/regular readers might find this selection a tad bit "unusual" considering just last night I went AGAINST these sorry Lakers and came away w/ a relatively easy win and cover on the Spurs, who were laying double digits and without Tony Parker (rest). However, as ridiculously low as that line may have been (in my analysis, I talked about how my own ratings said the number should have been at least -20!), tonight's number seems equally as unfair, only this time to the Lakers' opponent! You're telling me that Houston should only be laying three points less than San Antonio to the same opponent? Have you seen the Rockets play this year? My theory that teams playing in the second of B2B road games are often undervalued has treated me extremely well all season and I'll go back to it again here tonight. Take the points.

The Lakers are now a horrible 3-20 straight up this season and have just one win in their last 13 games. But that one win did come early in this road trip, when playing w/o rest, at Washington. I also took them when they traveled to Toronto, the night after losing by 20 in Detroit.  So, despite this being the finale of an eight-game, 12-day trip, the situation is not as bad for LA as it may look.   Thankfully, Kobe Bryant has ceded some control of the offense to #2 overall DC D'Angelo Russell, who has led the team in scoring each of the L2 games.  Though the final score ended up being one-sided last night, it was only an eight-point game heading into the fourth quarter.  The Lakers are 4-1 ATS playing the second game of a back to back this season.

Houston has been one of the league's biggest disappointments this season.  They made Kevin McHale the early season scapegoat, but even after his firing, the team has continued to struggle. Yes, they have seemingly turned things around recently w/ SU wins in six of their last eight, but they've played a lot of bad teams during that stretch and there hasn't been a single double-digit victory to speak of. In fact, their largest margin of victory ALL SEASON has been seven points! They had the best ATS record in the league a year ago, but now find themselves near the bottom of those standings this year (funny how that works out!), including a 3-10 ATS mark at home.  10* LA Lakers

10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET):   Columbus is a team that never even really "got out of the gate" as they dropped their first eight games, resulting in a coaching change, and have found themselves buried at the bottom of the Metro all season long. Under John Tortorella, they've been able to at least stay competitive, but the bottom line is that they come into Saturday having dropped five of their last six and they now have a major problem between the pipes as Sergei Bobrovsky is out 4-6 weeks due to a groin injury.  That's not good news when getting set to face a top tier team like the Islanders and considering the way the Blue Jackets' first game w/o "Bob" went (allowed six goals), I'd say they're in major trouble here.

The Isles have surged near the top of the Metro thanks to a 6-2-2 run their L10 games, including a 4-3 win at Philadelphia back on Tuesday. Having three days off between road games is a pretty nice luxury to have and I expect the club to take full advantage. Now they were outshot 46-26 by the Flyers their last time out and needed a shootout to get the two points (third straight SO win). But, I'm confident that we'll start seeing more "complete" efforts from this group moving forward as they still rank in the top eight in both goals scored and allowed.  The goaltending has been lights out recently, whether it's Thomas Greiss or Jaroslav Halak between the pipes, and earlier this year Halak shut out the Jackets in a 4-0 win.  New York has also had tremendous long-term success in division games. Against the rest of the Metro, they are 26-6-5 SU since the start of last season. 

As for Columbus, things have taken an ominous turn since the Bobrovsky injury.  They led the Kings 2-1 in the third period Tuesday when he had to leave and ended up losing that game in overtime.  Curtis McElhinney was then not sharp to say the least two nights ago, allowing three goals on the first five shots he saw vs. Winnipeg in an eventual 6-4 defeat. In eight appearances this season, McElhinney has a save percentage of .896, so the future looks bleak in Ohio's capital, especially if the team continues to allow as many shots as they have in the L2 games (76 total).  The Blue Jackets are bottom eight in the league in both goals scored/allowed, a stark contrast to tonight's opponent.  10* NY Islanders

8* Cincinnati (5:30 ET):  This annual cross-town rivalry is being brought to you by Skyline Chilli this year and I'd like to take just a moment to "put over" how much I like Skyline Chilli.  Also appetizing are the points underdog Cincinnati is receiving on Saturday as they look to snap a two-year losing streak to Xavier. The favored Musketeers come in as just one of 10 unbeaten teams left in the country and as you know, I've been targeting that dwindling list for the last week or so. Xavier is getting plenty of "run" lately, due to the impressive 9-0 SU start and is 6-3 ATS at the betting window as well. But Cincy is a formidable challenger given that their lone loss this season came on a buzzer-beater. Last year's meeting was also decided by a margin of two, so take the points. 

Both teams come into this game ranked for the first time in 22 years.  I admit that to this point Xavier has been very impressive.  They went to Ann Arbor and destroyed Michigan by 16, their one "true" road game thus far. A 35-point beatdown of Wright State on Tuesday marked the Musketeers fifth consecutive win while covering the spread (were -23.5).  There's been just one time all season that they've won by a single digit margin and it wasn't against Alabama, USC or Dayton (it was the opener vs. Miami (OH)).  But you have to wonder what happens when Xavier gets "hit in the mouth" for the first time. This easily projects to be their toughest game of the season to date and while the advanced stats love the Musketeers, I actually believe Cincinnati is the better team here.

The key today will be the Bearcats' defense. The last two years have seen them allow their highest shooting percentage of the season to Xavier. Last year, three-point shooting was the difference.  The Musketeers were 58.8 percent from behind the arc; Cincy was just 4 for 16 (25%). I don't see that discrepancy taking place again today as the Bearcats are better offensively this year w/ eight players averaging at least 7.3 points per game. Also, they allow the third-lowest field goal percentage in the country on two-point attempts (36.5%) while blocking a lot of shots and not fouling. The revenge factor is huge as well. Don't discount that Cincy beat George Washington, the team that beat Virginia, either. 8* Cincinnati

10* California (3:30 ET):  What a difference a week makes. Last Saturday, I went AGAINST Cal, as they played their first "true" road game of the season in Laramie, Wyoming. As you saw, that is no easy place to play and the Bears needed overtime to get by the underdog Cowboys, 78-72, but they failed to cover as 7.5-pt chalk. After following up that close call w/ a "ho-hum" win over Incarnate Word, Cal now is set to take on its strongest foe of the season to date, that being unbeaten St. Mary's.  The Gaels come into this one a perfect 6-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread, but are the underdogs and for good reason. This is their first "true" road game of the campaign and thus I'll back the Bears, who are 6-0 SU in Berkeley, as a slight fave.

St. Mary's, out of the WCC, already has one win over a Pac 12 team this season, that being Stanford back on November 22nd (78-61, -3.5).  But honestly, the Cardinal fall outside the top 100 in most rating systems (Vegas, KenPom, etc) while Cal is formerly ranked in the Top 25.  The other competition the Gaels have taken on thus far leaves a lot to be desired and note that despite red-hot 61.5% shooting in the first half of their last game (vs. UC Irvine), they couldn't really shake their opponents, leading by only three at halftime. The likelihood of a similar shooting performance this afternoon is pretty low, I'd say.  Not only is this SMC's 1st true road game, but it is the first time they've been an underdog this season. That's a role that has not treated them well the past two seasons as they're just 3-9 SU/4-8 ATS when taking points.

This is a 12:30 PM local start for the two teams, which is pretty early. I'd say that greatly favors the home side. Yes, Cal was a big "sluggish" on Wednesday and seemed to struggle against a zone defense.   But this is a team that's really had only one poor offensive showing all season, that coming against San Diego State.  St. Mary's is due to have its own shooting decline and speaking of "due," a five-game ATS losing skid for the home team is due to turn around as well.   Remember that SMC lost all five starters from LY and that Cal was projected to contend for a Pac 12 Conference Title. The Bears have too much talent, most notably potential lottery pick Jaylen Brown, to lose here. 10* California

8* Army (3:00 ET): I just think it's amazing that Army has lost 13 straight times to Navy, by an average of 21.2 points per game (though "only" outgained by an average of 92 yards/game). It's easily the longest losing streak either side has endured in this long and storied rivalry, but if there was ever a time for the Black Knights to prepare an "ambush" it would be this edition as the schedule has set up decidedly in their favor. They have had three full weeks to prepare for the 116th meeting thanks to Navy becoming conference affiliated for the 1st time in its history this season. Furthermore, the Midshipmen just had their hopes of an American Conference Championship (and possible "New Year's Six" bowl berth) snatched away by Houston two weeks ago and have a bowl game on deck (in 16 days) vs. Pittsburgh. So, you can excuse them if this matchup in Philadelphia doesn't have their full attention. I think this is a great spot to take the points.

Three of the past four years, this game has been close. In fact, Army has had a chance to win in each of those three games, losing by six, four and seven points (lost 34-7 in 2013).  They were 15-point dogs last year and I'm not sure I recall another time they were getting near this many points from the oddsmakers. Maybe the gap is widening.  But eventually, the streak must come to an end.  Over the last 10 years, there have been only two times that Navy has taken the game by more than 20 points, so the line here looks inflated. With the familiarity the teams have with each other's offensive system, there figures to be little in the way of "big plays" here. Also, I'd seriously doubt Navy would go out of its way to win in a blowout.

For Army, this game is their entire season. The Black Knights come in at just 2-9 SU, but I find it interesting that they're being outscored by only six points per game.  They have six losses by seven points or fewer this season, yet somehow are only 4-6-1 ATS (were actually favored four times this year).  Again, I think Navy is going to have a hard time getting over the loss to Houston two weeks ago (gave up 555 yards) and might be thinking about the bowl game. They are just 2-4 ATS the L6 times they've been asked to lay more than three touchdowns including a non-cover vs. Tulane earlier this season.  8* Army

10* Over Hurricanes/Ducks (10:05 ET):  Carolina is a team to keep at least one eye on moving forward. Sure, their 10-14-4 SU record (24 points) doesn't look very good and in fact, they're ahead of only one team (Columbus) in the Metro.  The team's -23 goal differential is the worst in the entire Eastern Conference. However, be aware that the advanced stats (Corsi & Fenwick) actually like this team very much as the 'Canes rank 2nd and 3rd respectively. Given those strong puck possession numbers, you'd expect this team to have a better overall record. As for Anaheim, the steep regression they've experienced this season has been all too predictable as advanced stats didn't like them at all last year as they were quite fortunate en route to 109 points (had worst goal differential among playoff teams). 

I'm not making a play on the side in this one, but the total looks very appealing.  The Hurricanes' primary issue this season has been poor goaltending as both Cam Ward and Eddie Lack have save percentages below .900, which is just unacceptable. Consider that they are facing an average of only 25.5 shots per game (fewest in the league!), so if the Ducks are able to put a reasonable number of shots on goal here, then they should be in good shape.  The Ducks are averaging a solid 30.8 shots per game at home this year, a good number, but unfortunately that hasn't really translated into the requisite number of goals.  The team's last four games have all gone Under w/ them totaling just four goals the L3 games.  But their season-long shooting percentage of 6.7% is very low and due to rise. A matchup with Carolina's woeful goaltending (.878 save percentage) should be the "perfect storm" they are looking for. 

It's tough to get any higher scoring than Carolina's last game, a 6-5 loss to Dallas.  It was the team's second straight game scoring five goals, but obviously the second time wasn't as good as the first (5-4 win over Arizona).  Anaheim goaltending has a pretty ridiculous .952 save percentage the L4 games, so something will have to give here. I say it's the Ducks goaltending as likely starter Frederik Andersen has an .849 save percentage his L4 outings. Consider that these teams combined for five goals (4-1 Ducks' win) on just 45 shots in the season's first meeting.  There should be more shots & more goals tonight. 10* Over Hurricanes/Ducks

8* San Antonio (9:35 ET):  This is a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for the Lakers, who are sorry enough to begin with, but a trip to San Antonio when the Spurs are off a rare defeat  should not go well at all. Wednesday night saw Greg Popovich's team lose for just the fifth time all season (all on the road), 97-94 as six-point favorites in Toronto. It's how they've responded to those previous four defeats that has caught my eye, however, as they've outscored opponents by an impressive 20.5 points per game (all double digit wins) while going a perfect 4-0 against the spread. At home, the Spurs are a perfect 11-0 SU, holding teams to an average of just 85.6 PPG, so I'm not joking when I say this line should be higher than -20.  Lay the big number here.

This isn't the first time I've laid a big number against the Lakers this season.  Perhaps you'll recall the night the Warriors set a NBA record for most consecutive wins to start a season, they were 17.5-point chalk against the Lakers. I laid the number and the result was a 111-77 massacre. The Spurs have the capability to do the same thing tonight.  I talked about the outstanding defensive numbers already and the result of that is they outscore teams, on average, by about 14.3 PPG here at home. Factoring in the fact the Lakers (who allow 106.3 PPG) are getting outscored by double digits on the road, you can see how I come to the conclusion that this line should certainly exceed -20.

Do you think Kobe Bryant might struggle shooting the ball against this Spurs' defense? Bryant, easily the league's worst jump shooter right now, goes up against a team that's held its previous opponents to a collective 42.1 field goal percentage this season. Kobe finds himself well below that threshold as he's at 30.9% for the season and an even worse 28.6% the L10 games. Yet, he'll continue to shoot far too much and that's just fine by me.   The Spurs lead the league in terms of defensive efficiency, are clearly the second best team in the league and taking on a foe that is a horrific 3-19 SU overall (just one win in L12 games). Were in not for Golden State and Philadelphia, these teams would be at complete opposite ends of the NBA spectrum. 8* San Antonio

10* Charlotte (8:05 ET):  This is one of those games where my own personal power ratings are in significant disagreement w/ the oddsmakers. While Memphis comes in as the favorite, my rankings say they shouldn't be. This team has been too prone to getting blown out, here at home in particular, as Tuesday's 125-88 loss to the Thunder marked the fourth time this season that the Grizzlies lost to a top 10 team by at least 20 points. They followed that up with a miraculous 93-92 win in Detroit Wednesday (Matt Barnes' half-court heave), but you might be shocked to learn that Charlotte is another top 10 foe that the Grizz should struggle against. The fact the Hornets are an impressive 18-5 ATS (3-0 ATS this year!) as a road underdog of +3.5 to +6 may not even matter as they outscore teams by 5.2 points per 100 possessions, a rate which trails only the "big 3" in the West (Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City)! Take the points.

Over its L10 games, the Hornets have lost only two times - to Cleveland and Golden State.  They come into tonight on an impressive three-game win streak as they've won at Chicago, then blown out both Detroit & Miami (by a combined 38 pts) at home. A big reason for their success is that they've gotten back to playing that great defense they were known for two seasons ago (when they made the playoffs), holding four of their last seven opponents under 88 points. But they also join the Warriors and Spurs as the only three teams in the league to currently rate in the top seven in both offensive and defensive efficiency. No team in the league turns it over fewer times per game than do the Hornets (just 11.3).

Memphis, meanwhile, has issues. They are averaging only 95.8 PPG for the year and while they've gone nearly a month w/o dropping B2B games straight up, they're only 3-9 ATS at home. Again, it was a fortunate win on Wednesday as not only did they trail by seven entering the fourth quarter, but Barnes' half-court shot was ill-conceived as it came w/ 1.1 seconds still on the clock. In terms of actual vs. expected wins (based on YTD point differential), no team is more "off" than the Grizzlies, who according to their -4.5 per game point differential should have a losing record. 10* Charlotte

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  Well, here it is.  If Golden State (now 23-0 SU) is to drop a game on this seven-game trip, this is the more likely spot (finale at Milwaukee tomorrow). As a reminder, no team in NBA history has EVER swept a road trip of seven or more games.  So far, they are 3-2 ATS on this trip w/ Utah and Toronto coming close to upsetting them (both three point games). I took the points w/ the Raptors last Saturday, a winner, then actually laid the big number w/ the Warriors the following day as they blew out Brooklyn. However, my "luck" ran out on Tuesday as six points wasn't quite enough for Indiana in a wild 131-123 game. However, the big story coming out of that contest was the ankle injury to Klay Thompson, the first sign that the Warriors may not be infallible after all. Thompson is currently listed as questionable for tonight, but either way, I'll take the points.

Boston will be the best team that Golden State has played this season. You read that correctly.  A pretty compelling case can be made that the Celtics have been the East's best team to this point as they currently lead the Conference in per game point differential (+5.4) and have the second most double digit victories (trailing only Golden St) in the league.  In fact, only two of their 13 victories this season have come by LESS than a 13-pt margin! One of those was their last time out, 105-100 over Chicago. But they still covered there (were only -3.5), improving to 5-0 ATS L5. A real key here is that Boston actually ranks above Golden State in terms of defensive efficiency. Prior to tonight, the Warriors have not faced any of the four teams ahead of them in that particular category.

Though their defensive efficiency is good (98.2 points allowed per 100 possessions), the Warriors are allowing 105.8 PPG on the road. Some of that is owed to the pace at which they play (league's third fastest), but the fact they've gotten away with allowing 116+ points four times this season (all on the road) and still covered every time seems pretty preposterous.  I'm not sure that the Celtics win here, but I love them plus the points as they are 5-2 ATS already as underdogs and come in averaging 108.0 points their L5 games. 8* Boston

10* New York (10:35 ET):  Needless to say, we may want to "pump the brakes" a little bit on this Knicks' "resurgence" as last night saw them get absolutely humiliated in Utah. The 105-86 final score doesn't even begin to tell the "whole story" as the Jazz quickly jumped out to a 29-11 lead after one quarter and the advantage grew to as many as 33 points (70-37!) midway through the third quarter.  As bad of a game as that was for New York, I feel that it offers us an excellent opportunity to "buy low" here as my own personal power ratings suggest that Sacramento shouldn't be favored by more than a basket here. Also, as I mentioned in the other two game analysis in this report, teams playing in the second of B2B road games are generally undervalued to begin with. Take the points here.

When Boogie Cousins is happy and in the lineup, the Kings are a much better team. Here at home, they beat Utah Tuesday night, 114-106 and they actually closed as a three-point favorite for that contest.  They got out to a sizable early lead that they would never relinquish thanks to red-hot 55.6 percent shooting, not their best for the season, but pretty close.  On the defensive end, where typically this team is not very good at all (29th in points allowed), they somehow got away w/ allowing the Jazz to connect on 15 of 36 three-point attempts. In a weird twist, Utah was only 23 of 56 (41 percent) from two-point range. That's simply not indicative of the poor defense we generally see from the Kings on a game by game basis. Cousins continues to battle through back and ankle injuries and that could very well limit his usage here, which would be a huge hit to Sacramento's chances of winning, let alone covering.

The Knicks are just 2-7 SU/ATS their L9 games with the two wins coming over Brooklyn and Philadelphia. That's played a significant role in this line being inflated.  But I like them very much in this price range due to the fact the team is a solid 8-2 against the spread taking 4.5 or more points from the oddsmakers this season. I'm willing to write off last night as simply being "one of those nights" as it's highly unlikely that Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis combine to shoot 5 of 19 from the field (like they did last night) again.  Sacramento has been favored by this many points only one other time all season and the result ended up being a two-point win over Brooklyn here at home.  10* New York

8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET):  I've written before that the early returns on Fred Hoiberg's Bulls haven't been all that impressive despite a somewhat successful WL record. However, now the team is just 11-8 SU and in eighth place in a much improved East and you might be surprised to learn that a number of key metrics say that position is pretty much indicative of where they "are at" right now. Following a loss in a Boston last night, 105-100 as 3.5-point pups, Chicago finds itself essentially dead even in points allowed vs. scored per 100 possessions and their record would be a lot worse if not for an 8-4 SU record in games decided by six points or less. Only Brooklyn and Philadelphia have been worse in terms of offensive efficiency this season and the Bulls are only 2-8 ATS at home.

The Clippers also played Wednesday night, however, their result was far more to their liking as they went to Milwaukee and easily handled the Bucks.  The 109-95 win and cover gives Doc Rivers' team a three-game win streak and overall they've won six of seven. Quite simply, these are two teams trending in opposite directions right now.  Chicago has dropped three in a row (four straight ATS) and while they've all been close games, the results have been somewhat predictable given their "lucky" 8-1 (SU) start to the season in games decided by six points or less.  Hoiberg replacing a proven commodity in Tom Thibodeau was supposed to make the Bulls a better offensive team this year, but somehow they've managed to actually regress at that end of the floor. Hoiberg is already tinkering (unsuccessfully) w/ lineups and appears to be somewhat "in over his head" at this point.

If you're a regular client of mine, then you know I've been making a veritable "killing" taking teams playing the second of back to back road games this season. That's the situation the Clips find themselves in here and will be the underlying theme of this entire three-game report.  Being on the road shouldn't bother LA much tonight as they are a fantastic 12-4 ATS their past 16 visits to the Windy City. The bottom line here is that the Bulls are just an average team right now. 8* LA Clippers

8* Puck Line Philadelphia (8:05 ET):  Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Flyers +1.5.  A rare loss in NHL occurred for me on Tuesday when I grabbed the Coyotes on the PL here in St. Louis. Note, however, that was a 2-1 game entering the third period and even though the final margin was 4-1, it would be tough to call it a "dominating" type performance by the Blues.  They had only 22 shots on goal for the game as they produced just their second multi-goal win since November 14th.  Tonight, they welcome in a Philadelphia club that's off B2B losses, including 4-3 at home to the Islanders Tuesday. But before that, the Flyers had won five of six overall and I like them to at least keep this one close, doing no worse than a one-goal loss.  Take the +1.5.

St. Louis has not won B2B games in over a month.  Their +4 YTD goal differential leaves a lot to be desired as well.  They'd dropped three straight before beating Arizona on Tuesday and offensively they are struggling this season as they rank just 17th in goals per game and 25th on the power play where they are 0 for their last 10.   Having gone just 8-4-2 here on home ice is "nothing to write home about" nor is the fact they've dropped nine of 14 games this season against Eastern Conference opponents.  In goal, they turn to Brian Elliot this evening and while his .957 save percentage his L4 games looks really impressive, be aware that two of those appearances came in a non-start situation.

Philly will go w/ Steve Mason between the pipes here and that's certainly a good thing considering his 0.62 goals against average his L5 starts against St. Louis.  Like the Blues, the Flyers have struggled to score goals this season (29th overall), but they've scored at least three in five of the last six games, so we're beginning to see signs of improvement there.  It's also certainly worth noting that they outshot the Islanders, 46-26, their last time out.  For the most part, they've also done a pretty good job at limiting the number of shot attempts from their opponents recently as four of the previous five opponents have been at 26 or fewer for the game. 8* Puck Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

8* Atlanta (8:05 ET):  Here we go again w/ another team playing the second of back to back road games. This time it's the Hawks, who last night went into Dallas and pulled out an impressive 98-95 win as slight two-point favorites. One might think that result makes them prone for a letdown here, but I'll disagree and given how generous the oddsmakers are being, it's an appropriate time to take advantage. The Hawks beat Oklahoma City, in Atlanta, 106-100 as a three-point dog just ten days ago, so this line definitely looks inflated. The Thunder have covered just three of their last 12 games overall.  Take the points.

At this point in the season, it's difficult to make "heads or tails" with the Hawks.  It's a much improved Eastern Conference and coming into the season, I think everybody (myself included) felt regression was somewhat inevitable following LY's stunning 60-win campaign. But I don't see any reason this team can't still finish second in the Conference behind Cleveland.  Defense was the key last night as they held the Mavericks to just 36% shooting, the lowest percentage all season by an opponent. That being said, in each of their last three victories, the opposition has been below 40 percent overall.  You don't find this Atlanta team as an underdog all that often, especially in this price range, so I say let's take advantage.

Meanwhile, I think it's become quite clear where the Thunder fit in the Western Conference pecking order.  Clearly, they are not as good as the Warriors or Spurs, but it's a weakened West this year and I'd be stunned if the Thunder didn't finish in third place overall. Still though, the jury is still out on the Billy Donovan hire as many of the same issues exist (offensively) that were there under Scott Brooks. The Thunder did roll into Memphis and destroy the Grizzlies Tuesday night, 125-88, but that particular opponent has been strangely prone to getting blown out all season. It's unlikely that OKC will duplicate it's 56 percent (season-high!) shooting from that game here and defensively this is a squad that still gives up 101.6 points per game. They are just 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS vs. teams w/ a winning record this season. 8* Atlanta

8* Detroit (7:35 ET):  This is a matchup of the two top teams in the Atlantic and while a bit of a chasm still exists in terms of points (41 to 35) and goal differential (+29 to +1) with Montreal and Detroit, I see signs that the Red Wings will be soon closing those respective gaps. Admittedly, I was pretty lukewarm on the Wings at the start of the season due to relatively subpar possession numbers as well as a low number of shots on goal. But both seem to be on the rise of late as they have not lost in regulation over the L10 games (6-0-4).  Meanwhile, the Canadiens are in the midst of their first slide of the year (three straight losses), which should not be that surprising as they are still w/o reigning Vezina Trophy winner Carey Price.

The fact that the Habs were able to keep winning w/o Price between the pipes was pretty shocking as there's no sugarcoating what a huge loss it is having him out of the lineup for this long. But backup netminder Mike Condon has predictably come back "down to Earth" w/ an .894 save percentage his L4 starts and tonight gives way to Dustin Tokarski, who has just one appearance (not a start) to his name this year and in came in relief of Condon in what ended up being a 6-1 home loss to Colorado last month. At the same time their goaltending has predictably regressed, Montreal's offense is also struggling as well. They've totaled just nine goals in the last five games, including only one in last night's home loss to Boston where Condon gave up three goals in the third period.

Meanwhile, Detroit is also off a loss, but it came in a shootout against a very good Washington club Tuesday night and it was a road game.  Earlier, I talked about the improvement in getting shots on goal and over the L5 games Detroit is averaging 35.6.  Despite going past regulation against the Caps, they finished w/ only 23, but that came after three consecutive games where they scored five goals each time out while at the same totaling 126 shots. Goaltender Jimmy Howard has been outstanding between the pipes of late w/ a .927 save percentage his L4 starts and is most likely to get the call here. With seven straight losses to the Habs, this shapes up as a major statement/revenge game for the home team. 8* Detroit

8* Iowa (7:30 ET):  While the Hawkeyes' football team just had its hope of an unbeaten season wrecked by Michigan State in the Big 10 Championship Game, the school's basketball team can now play the role of "spoiler" itself as they get set to face unbeaten in-state rival Iowa State.  Iowa isn't too shabby itself, however, coming in at 7-2 SU w/ the only two losses coming in Florida to Notre Dame and Dayton and both were close. This will not be their first "true" road game of the season as already Fran McCaffery's team has gone to Marquette and won by 28 (as just four-point favorites).  This will obviously be a much tougher challenge, but note I went against ISU earlier in the week, taking Buffalo +22, and came away w/ the ATS win.   Take the points again here.

Iowa has not won in Ames in six years and last year lost to the Cyclones at home, 90-75, as 5.5-point favorites.  That loss snapped a 31-game home win streak for the Hawkeyes over non-conference competition, so this is a big revenge spot for them.  They shot the ball very poorly in LY's meeting, just 39.4 percent overall from the floor, while ISU was at 53.1 percent (including 12-27 from 3-pt range). Even factoring in the change of venue, I wouldn't expect the respective shooting percentages to be that far apart tonight. Iowa has averaged 86.9 PPG during its four-game win streak, admittedly against lesser competition, but there's been only one game all season that they didn't top 75 points (loss to Notre Dame), so they do have the firepower to stick w/ the favored Cyclones here.

This will also certainly be the toughest test of the season so far for Iowa State, a team that had to replace a high-profile HC in the offseason (Fred Hoiberg) that went to the NBA (Bulls).  Two games ago, against North Dakota State, they led by only two w/ 12 minutes remaining. So, a 20-point final margin of victory was a tad bit misleading.  So too was the 84-63 win over Buffalo Monday as the Cyclones led by just one w/ just over 13 minutes remaining. They will not be able to be so "casual" w/ tonight's opponent, who is 3-0 ATS the L3 times it has been a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points.  As mentioned in Monday's analysis, ISU doesn't get to the FT line enough and I'm projecting Iowa to have a big advantage in rebounding here. Also, the fact the Hawkeyes are allowing just 28.9 % shooting from 3-pt range should serve them well. 8* Iowa

10* Over Penguins/Avalanche (10:05 ET):   Like last night's Over play on San Jose-Calgary, this is another matchup where the high juice caught my eye.  If last night (2-2 after one period!) was any indication, then this should be another easy one.  Now, as previously discussed (in past analysis), Pittsburgh has been a surprising Under team for the balance of the year, going 15-8-3 Under in all games including 9-3-1 on the road. But they've been allowing a lot of shots lately (35.0 per game L5) and moving forward, I simply cannot see Marc-Andre Fleury maintaining his .936 save percentage on the road.  Colorado is a team that's gone Under in four straight due to some pitiful offensive production. That too is due to correct itself.  Take the Over.

The Avalanche's last four games have all seen just three total goals scored.  The last was a win, 2-1 in overtime over the Wild, where each side had only 20 shots apiece.  It's actually been three straight games w/ 20 shots or fewer for the Avs, which is mind-numbingly low.  They'd actually been shutout in Minnesota their previous game, but allowed 44 shots in the 3-0 loss. Oddsmakers dropping the O/U line to 5.0 is huge here as the Over is 12-6 in Avs' home games at that number. In goal, there are issues as well and that will aid us in getting more than five goals here.  It appears as if HC Patrick Roy will be turning to backup Reto Berra between the pipes here and that could mean trouble given his woeful .878 save percentage his L4 starts.

Pittsburgh has just 44 shots on goal its last two games, but we should start to see that number go up. Honestly, I'm stunned to see a team w/ this much offensive talent rank only 26th in the league in goals per game as well as 26th on the power play. Before losing 2-1 in Anaheim on Sunday, the Pens' previous two games saw them score five goals (in a win over San Jose) and allow five (in a loss to the Kings).   Again, this team has been giving up a lot of shots lately.  They allowed just 25 against the Ducks, but before that it was four straight giving up 34 or more (37.5 per game).  The Over is 2-0 this season for the Pens when taking the ice w/ exactly two days rest. 10* Over Penguins/Avalanche

8* Orlando (9:05 ET): Again, it's back to the well w/ a team playing in the second of B2B road games. This time, it's the Magic, who are coming off an impressive 85-74 win in Denver last night. No team has been better than Orlando at the betting window this season, not even Golden State. The Magic are now 14-6-1 ATS overall and that includes a sterling 10-3 mark as an underdog w/ six outright wins. Getting points here makes them a great value in my estimation as the struggling Suns return home having dropped eight of their L10 games. They won both the first and last game of a six-game swing out East, the latter coming at the buzzer in Chicago, 103-101 as six-point pups. I don't see them being as lucky here as teams returning home after such a long trip typically struggle their first game back at home. Take the points.

Orlando, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction as they have won six of seven (6-0-1 ATS!) and their only loss during that time came by two points Saturday against the Clippers (pushed as two-point dogs).  Whether folks simply aren't paying attention or it's simply the stink of the post-Dwight Howard years, this is a very good under the radar team right now.  Sure, it will be difficult to duplicate last night's season best effort on the defensive end as they held the Nuggets to just 74 points on 33.3% shooting. But, at the same time, you can expect improvement offensively as the Magic were just 1 of 16 from three-point range vs. the Nuggets.  The discrepancy from last night in terms of offensive production (compared to YTD averages) was far greater than any discrepancy in defensive numbers as opponents are shooting just 41.8 percent for the season against Orlando.  The Magic are also unlikely to turn the ball over 20 times again like they did last night as well.

Phoenix, meanwhile, has major issues on the defensive end as they give up 105.2 PPG, one of the worst averages in the entire league (only four teams worse).  They've played nothing but close games of late, in fact, each of their last six contests have been decided by five points or fewer.  So, there's no real reason to want to lay points w/ this bunch right now, especially w/ the defensive issues. The Magic are simply the better team right now. 8* Orlando

10* Wichita State (9:00 ET):  Do not make the mistake of judging Wichita State by its disappointing record. Instead, remember that this was a Final Four team three years ago and and one that has gone 62-4 SU in the regular season the last two years. Injuries have played a significant role in this season's disappointing start.  Most notably, senior Fred VanVleet missed all three games of the Advocare Invitational (in Florida) and the result was the team dropping all three games. But VanVleet returned to the lineup Saturday as WSU picked up a big-time road win over an always gritty St. Louis team, 68-53 as 6.5-pt chalk.  With VanVleet back, I think this team is ready to roll, starting w/ a visit from UNLV Wednesday. Lay the points.

This will be UNLV's first "true" road game of the season, although technically they did play D-II Chaminade in the Maui Invitational. The Rebels cashed for me last Friday as they handed Oregon its first loss of the season, in Vegas.  That was an impressive win as they led the Ducks by double digits most of the way (biggest lead = 20 points) and were actually a slight dog. They shot 43.5 percent from three-point range, which was huge. It also helped that Oregon shot just 32.4% themselves and didn't score a single point over the game's final 3:30.  While it was the Rebels' second upset victory over a ranked opponent in the L3 games, this shapes up as their toughest test to date. Over the L3 seasons, Dave Rice's team is just 7-23 SU as a dog, by the way.

Sure, I was pretty complimentary of Rice's Rebels when I took them against Oregon, plus they cashed for me in Maui, taking points, against UCLA.  But, when healthy, I like this Wichita State team a lot more than all previous UNLV opponents.  Yes, transfer Anton Grady is still out with a concussion.  But, at the risk of beating a dead horse, VanVleet is the key cog here.  Also, there is a rumor that Connor Frankamp, who has been ineligible due to grades, surprisingly could make his season debut here.  That would be a huge plus.  This is a team that was preseason Top 10, has only played two home games and had to battle through injuries.  They are undervalued in this spot.  10* Wichita State

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Tonight, HAS to be the night, right? The T'wolves are now an unfathomably bad 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS at home following another close loss on Monday, 110-106 to the Clippers.  They are now in danger of a winless homestand (tonight is fourth game) and the previous three were all decided by six points or less.  They've blown back to back second half leads, the first coming against Portland (led by 17 in the third quarter) and then a three point lead in the final minute to the Clippers (gave up 39 pts in the fourth quarter). All things considered, you might be surprised to find the T'wolves favored and even more surprised that I'm willing to lay the number here, but the Lakers are the "gift that keeps on giving," and, in fact, the T'wolves have already beaten them once this season.

My strategy of taking teams playing the second of B2B road games has been fairly "foolproof" this season, so much so that even the Lakers cashed in the role Monday night in Toronto. Catching a generous 13.5 points, they lost 103-92, but that's where the positivism ends with this awful team. They are 3-17 SU for the year and have dropped 10 of 11 overall. All but one of those L10 losses have come by double digits! Kobe Bryant's shooting has descended into the abyss, to the point where it's absolutely fair to call him the worst shooter in the entire NBA.  He's shooting just 31 percent overall the L5 games, almost identical to his overall season average (30.6%!), which is beyond atrocious. Speaking of atrocious, there's the Lakers on the defensive end as they've allowed 100+ points in 11 straight games.

These two faced off in the season opener and it was Minnesota coming away with a 112-111 win as three-point dogs.  However, close games generally haven't gone the T'wolves way this season as they have only two other wins by five points or less all season (both at home).  Their last four losses have come by a total of 21 points.  But we shouldn't have to worry about any of that here as the Lakers are being outscored by 11 PPG on the road this season. Lay the points. 8* Minnesota

8* Houston (7:05 ET):  We're going back to the well this evening w/ two more teams playing in the second of B2B road games that are being undervalued. (Portland was the latest winner in this role last night).  First up, we have the Rockets, who just last year had the top ATS mark (59.2%) in the league. That certainly isn't the case this year as they are down to 31.8% (worst in the league!) after a SU/ATS loss last night in Brooklyn. They had won and covered three straight prior, but that was also after closing November in disastrous fashion (1-10 ATS). Tonight, they find themselves in the Nation's Capital to face off w/ another disappointing team, the Wizards, who are equally awful defensively. This is a good matchup for Houston.  Take the points.

The Rockets clearly entered this season overvalued based on last year's run to the Western Conference Finals.  More often than not, they've been favored and the result there has been a 4-11 mark at the betting window in that role.  But, in the more uncommon role of underdog, they are 3-4 - both SU and ATS, which isn't terrible.  The last time we found them taking points was last Friday in Dallas and they pulled the outright upset there, 100-96 as five-point pups. They followed that up w/ a 120-113 win (-3) over Sacramento.  But last night, many of their "old" problems resurfaced, namely James Harden turning the ball over too much (while scoring a season-low 10 pts) and just plain bad defense. As a team, Houston gave it away 24 times and they allowed the Nets to shoot 55.6% from the floor. That simply should not happen and I'll look for improvement across the board tonight.

This game has the chance to be one of the highest scoring NBA games of the year.  Just like the Rockets, the Wizards have been terrible defensively, giving up 106.3 PPG here at home. Interestingly, despite the faster pace of play, Washington ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in terms of offensive efficiency as well.  Two nights ago, the team did go into Miami and pull off a surprising 114-103 upset (despite allowing 59% shooting). That was just the third time all year that the Wiz shot 50% (or better) in a game, however, and they are 0-3 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog (no B2B wins in three weeks!). Houston is 0-7 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite themselves, so something has to give. I say it's the Rockets that cover here. 8* Houston

8* Over Sharks/Flames (9:05 ET): This is one of the higher juice totals I can remember and I would obviously recommend getting down at 5.0 (but play still stands at 5.5).  Calgary has given up the most goals in the league by a wide margin (3.6 per game), so we know they should "comply" as should San Jose, who has gone Over in five of its last six games. I cashed the Sharks Over as my *10* NHL Game of the Week on Saturday as they welcomed in Tampa Bay and lost 4-3.  That was on the heels of a rare shutout defeat (1-0) at Anaheim, but the previous four Sharks' games had all gone Over, including one vs. these Flames, a 5-2 victory that stands out as San Jose's lone win in its last five games.  Take the Over.

Let me start out by prefacing that Calgary's special teams are absolutely atrocious. When was the last time you saw a team rank dead last in BOTH penalty killing and on the power play? Regression has bit this team hard following a rare playoff appearance last season, although they are off B2B shocking wins here at home over Dallas and Boston.  In those two games, both of which went past regulation, they tallied nine goals.  Obviously you can subtract the two game winners out, but that's still 3.5 gpg and that should serve them well here considering some of San Jose's recent poor efforts on the defensive end. In three of its past five games, the Sharks have surrendered at least four goals and unlike Calgary, they have no extra time to use as an excuse. Whether it's Martin Jones or Alex Stalock between the pipes tonight for San Jose, I wouldn't be too confident if I were HC Peter DeBoer.

Of course, we can count on the Flames to give up their "fair share" of goals here as well. They've gone Over in three straight and in doing so have allowed 12 goals, all in regulation. A San Jose power play that is surging (29.6 percent L6 games) should take full advantage of a Calgary PK unit that is allowing opponents to score 27.9 percent of the time for the season. Incredibly, the Flames goaltenders have a cumulative save percentage of just .879 for the year! None of their available options are very good right now.  8* Over Sharks/Flames

8* Arizona Puck Line (8:05 ET):  Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Coyotes +1.5. Few will give the 'Yotes a shot here as they visit the Scottrade Center, but both of these teams enter in on losing streaks.  Arizona has lost its last four, but St. Louis has dropped three in a row as well and in doing so has scored just one goal in every loss, two of them coming here on home ice.  Arizona, looking to avoid a winless road trip, is off a one-goal loss (at Carolina) Sunday and obviously needs to get its goaltending in check to have any kind of chance here. I say they will and at the same time, their offense looks to be ready to break out of its recent doldrums as well (scored four goals last game). Take the +1.5.

It has been downright ugly in the desert as they've lost four straight games, all in regulation, while giving up 20 goals (exactly 5 in every game). They are off one of the more curious high-scoring games in recent NHL history as they fell to Carolina, 5-4, despite their being only 41 shots on goal - total - between the two sides! The Coyotes managed only 23 themselves, a pathetic number obviously, and the team has been at that number or less in four of its past five contests. But, on the bright side, limiting a strong puck possession team like the 'Canes (2nd in Corsi, 3rd in Fenwick!) to only 18 shots is encouraging, even if the goaltending was most certainly not. Please, Anders Linback or Mike Smith, do something here!

That loss to Carolina on Sunday saw Arizona give up the game tying and winning goals in the final four minutes of regulation, the latter coming in the final 17 seconds when the team was short-handed. St. Louis wasn't nearly as competitive in its 4-1 home loss Saturday to the Maple Leafs, which dropped them to 7-4-2 at the Scottrade Center this season.  Goaltending has also been a concern for the Blues, particularly w/ Jake Allen between the pipes (.882 save percentage L4 starts). So too has goal scoring as the Blues have tallied all of three goals in three games and this is a team that has just four wins in its L12 games overall. Three of those have been of the one-goal variety as well, so the PL presents a nice value here. 8* Arizona (+1.5)

8* Indiana (7:05 ET):  As I've mentioned in previous writeups, no team in NBA history has ever swept a road trip of at least seven games. But for 22-0 Golden State, it's "four down, three more to go" as they continue this incredible, record-setting start to the season. You'll recall that I went against them Saturday when they were laying seven points in Toronto and the margin was never greater than three (either way) over the final nine minutes of the fourth quarter there.  The following day (Sunday) I was correct in calling the Warriors "undervalued" (in the second game of a B2B) at Brooklyn and after a slow start, they ended up blowing the Nets out, 114-98 as 10-pt chalk.  I think tonight's game at Indiana shapes up a lot like the one in Toronto and I'm taking the points.

The pressure is starting to mount for Golden State and I expect a lot of people to wisely start fading them until they finally lose a game (which obviously will happen). Going back to November 19th, they are 8-2 against the spread and their YTD +14.9 per game point differential is the best in league history through 22 games. While there's been only one stretch all season where they played three straight "close games" (meaning decided by single digits), over the L4, they've alternated close and blowout wins. Two of those last four (Utah, Toronto) were decided by just three points each. If there's one hole to poke in the Warriors' impressive resume, it's that they are allowing 104.4 PPG on the road.

Indiana will be the best team Golden State has faced so far this season. Remember that the Western Conference has taken a collective step back this year, in spite of the Warriors (and Spurs) dominance. I have the Pacers rated ahead of Toronto (from a power ratings perspective), who gave the Warriors two of their toughest games of the season. Indiana has been covering spreads too; they went 11-1 ATS in November. But after opening December w/ an impressive road win over the Clippers, they've now dropped B2B games (SU/ATS) at Portland/Utah.  So there's plenty of motivation here, not just to knock off the unbeaten Warriors, but to bounce back as well.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS this season when playing on exactly two days rest and 7-0 ATS when taking on teams w/ a wining SU record. They are one of the few teams that can keep pace w/ the Warriors' scoring as they've averaged 112.8 points their L8 games.  8* Indiana

10* Portland (7:05 ET):  This is a classic spot where I feel the majority of bettors will be going one way and I'll be going in the opposite direction.  Cleveland is back at home after losing three straight (two on the road), the latest defeat coming Saturday in Miami when LeBron James decided to rest (was the 2nd game of a B2B). This is their longest losing streak of the year and in comes a Portland team that lost last night in Milwaukee. Most will call for the bounce back here, but I think the number is inflated due to the fact the visitors are w/o rest. If you've been a regular client of mine, then you I've really been "raking in the dough" with this strategy all season long, even cashing the Lakers last night.  Take the points.

Remember that Cleveland is short-handed.  It's not as bad as LY's NBA Finals when they were w/o BOTH Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, but the latter still hasn't played a game this season, nor has fellow backcourt mate Iman Shumpert.  The lack of depth is starting to show as LeBron is having to carry the team to no avail. He bailed them out w/ a game winner vs. Brooklyn, here at home, back on November 28th and then almost single-handedly led a rally last Friday against a bad New Orleans team. Overall, the Cavs have lost four in a row ATS and are just 7-13 at the betting window for the season (5-12 when favored). Their early season schedule was REALLY weak as they played teams like Philadelphia, New York and Milwaukee multiple times. At one point, they failed to cover eight straight games. I realize they're 9-1 SU at home, but even so, their scoring average is just +6.5 PPG here. They are 0-5 ATS when playing w/ exactly two days rest. 

Portland lost by only two at Milwaukee last night as they fell apart late. The loss dropped them to 0-7 SU this season when failing to score 100 points, so we clearly know the threshold that we'll need tonight. Cleveland has actually been pretty solid of late defensively, but is tied for 12th in terms of efficiency and had real problems w/ the pace of Washington last week.  I'm actually going to be at this game and while it's never fun having to root for the road team, I see the Blazers staying within the number. 10* Portland

8* Virginia (7:00 ET):  We continue to target the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens in the country (now down to 12 after Villanova lost yday) w/ a play here on the first game of the Jimmy V Classic (takes place at Madison Square Garden). If you haven't been paying attention much this season, then you might be surprised to learn that it is West Virginia, not their counterparts to the East, who comes in w/ the unblemished mark. WVU is both unbeaten straight up (7-0) and against the pointspread (4-0), but tonight marks - by far - their toughest test to date as #10 Virginia has been on a roll ever since suffering their lone defeat, 73-68 at George Washington back on November 16th.  Lay the points in this one.

This shapes up as a fascinating matchup, but it's a bad one for the unbeaten Mountaineers, who feast off turnovers. No team forces more per game (23.4) than WVU, but the problem here is that no team in the country turns it over less than does Virginia (7.4).  I look for the methodical pace at which Tony Bennett's Cavaliers play at to give the Mounties fits all game long.  WVU will not like the pace at which this game is likely to be played.   Note that Virginia is also outstanding at forcing turnovers (21% of opponents' possessions!) and because of the slower pace they operate at, that number might be more impressive than WVU's 31% turnover rate. Bob Huggins' crew has not played a ranked opponent yet, nor have they played a "true" road game.

One thing that present and future Virginia opponents will not want to hear is that the Cavs appear to be much improved on the offensive end of the floor this year. They are averaging 77.1 points per game so far.  Four players are shooting better than 40 percent from three-point range and that may determine the outcome of this game as WVU is allowing just 22 percent shooting from behind the arc so far. Meanwhile, WVU shoots only 28.5% from three-point range itself and that's going to be a major issue here because few, if any, teams in the country defend on the interior quite like Virginia does.  Against teams averaging 77+ PPG, the Cavs are 12-3 SU, 10-4-1 ATS the L3 seasons.  8* Virginia

10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET):  The Rhodies are off a tough, two-point loss to in-state rival Providence their last time out, which was actually one of the better College Basketball games of the season. The game was decided at the buzzer and while the Rams lost, I was still impressed at how they performed in light of the fact that this is a team that lost its best player (E.C. Matthews) for the remainder of the season. Both of the Rams' losses this season have come to ranked opponents (also Maryland). Tonight, they play their third straight home game against a team that comes in unbeaten, but is nowhere close to even being ranked, that being Houston. My strategy of late has been to target this dwindling list of remaining unbeatens (just 12 left after Villanova lost yday) in College Hoops, so lay the points here.

Don't be too impressed by Houston's 5-0 record. They've yet to even leave campus and only two of the opponents were of the lined variety. Six days ago, they beat Murray State by 15 (were -7.5 at the betting window).  It was a pretty ridiculous shooting display from the Cougars as they connected on 64% of their overall attempts (10 for 15 from 3-pt range) en route to 93 points (had 51 by halftime).  Needless to say, I would expect a dropoff tonight.  Again, this is a team that's yet to leave campus this season.  The previous two seasons have seen them go a pathetic 5-18 SU in road/neutral site games.  Besides Murray State, the only other lined opponent the Cougars have faced is Louisiana Monroe.

Meanwhile, Rhode Island has definitely stepped up in class a few times this season and while some of those haven't worked out, I've been impressed nonetheless.  They are allowing just 59.7 PPG and two of their three losses have been by three points or less (both of those at home).  They are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range, so I like the way they've been priced here.  All but one of the Rams' victories this season has been by double digits. With a home game on deck vs. Ben Simmons and LSU, the road team may actually be looking past tonight's opponent, which obviously would be a huge mistake. 10* Rhode Island

6* Vancouver (10:05 ET):  This is just an awful spot for visiting Buffalo, who allowed four goals in a loss to Edmonton last night (I won w/ the Over!). Unlike in the NBA, where there's a pointspread, there's no such thing to take advantage of here w/ the Sabres, so I can't make any kind of case that they're "undervalued" as they continue their trek through Western Canada. Their recent scoring surge is likely to starting "coming down" as they continue to average a less than impressive number of shots per game (did have 34 last night though) as their shooting percentage of 13.7 percent the L5 games is going to be extremely difficult to maintain. Meanwhile, these are two points the Canucks must have after dropping five in a row, the latest in shutout fashion.  Go w/ the home team.

Overall, Vancouver has dropped 10 of 12, but recently they've had to take on some real quality opponents. They've played Dallas twice in the last 10 days and had to travel to Los Angeles as well.  That's both division leaders in the Western Conference. Saturday saw them get shutout here on home ice, 4-0 by the Bruins, who are 7-1-2 their L10 games.  What's really bad for the Canucks, however, is that was the third consecutive game where they finished w/ fewer than 20 shots on goal. That simply cannot happen if you want to win in today's NHL.  Things won't be getting any easier for these Canucks as the Rangers are the next team to come to town and that's followed by a six-game trip out East. So, simply put, they must take advantage of this drop in class in terms of opponent.

While the recent shot totals are a bit concerning, one thing I noticed w/ this Vancouver team is they've definitely a little bit "unlucky."  They have eight losses beyond regulation this year, which is easily the most in the entire league. In fact, no other team has more than five!  Perhaps, they can take advantage of the fact that the Sabres rank 29th in the league on the penalty kill (74.6 percent), especially due to the fact Buffalo is unrested here.  The goaltending edge goes to the home team here as they turn to Ryan Miller while the visitors likely go w/ Linus Ullmark, who has not won in his L5 starts. 6* Vancouver

10* Buffalo (9:00 ET):  Only 13 unbeaten teams are left in the country (I'm proud to say that I went against Davidson yday and came away w/ an easy win & cover!) and that list is guaranteed to drop by at least one tonight because Oklahoma plays Villanova. I'm staying away from that one, but will continue to target the remaining list as Iowa State is laying a big number to a battle-tested Buffalo team here. While an outright win here is extremely unlikely (Cyclones are 33-2 SU L35 home games), I feel the number is inflated due to ISU's unblemished mark. Note that Buffalo just went into Duke two days ago and (just barely) grabbed the cash as 24.5-pt underdogs. There's been virtually no adjustment by the oddsmakers here, so go ahead and take the points yet again!

Iowa State really hasn't been tested this year.  They've played a few neutral site affairs, but never against an opponent you'd think would give them any kind of real trouble.  They had to scrape by Colorado in the opener, winning only 68-62 as 10.5-pt chalk, but since then have covered all four lined games.  They are off a 20-point win over North Dakota State here in Ames last Tuesday, meaning they've had a lot of time off between games and with a big game on deck (vs. Iowa) three days from now, tonight's game sets up as a proverbial "look ahead." Remember that this is a team that lost it's very good head coach (Fred Hoiberg) to the NBA in the offseason.  There are issues both getting to the free throw line (averaging only 15 attempts per game) and in rebounding (only 8 offensive RPG). Also, the team's best player (Georges Niang) suffered a thigh injury in the last game and won't be 100% tonight.

Something else to keep in mind here is that the final result (83-63) over North Dakota State (NCAA Tournament team LY) was not as lopsided as it may appear. It was only a two-point game w/ 12 minutes to go in the game.  So, while, this isn't the friendliest spot for the underdog by any means, they certainly have great chance at keeping this one close. They too had to replace a high-profile HC in the offseason (Bobby Hurley) after going to the NCAA Tournament. But while they've lost all three road games by double digits, they are 3-0 ATS L3 times taking 12.5 or more points from the oddsmakers and are 5-1 ATS L6 when playing on exactly one day's rest.  10* Buffalo

8* Dallas (8:30 ET):  The Cowboys' Thanksgiving could not have gone any worse as they were blown out, at home, by Carolina and in the process lost QB Tony Romo for the rest of the season. Team morale and stock is likely down to an all-time low for 2015, but if "you know me," then you probably could have guessed that I would be on them in this spot. Yes, it was really frustrating to see "America's Team" get blown out 33-14 on national TV (my NFL Game of the Month). I wasn't happy about it, needless to say. But going "inside the boxscore" reveals that it wasn't necessarily as bad of a blowout as you think as Dallas was outgained "only" 294-210 (18-14 in first downs). The issue was three Romo interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Take the points here, though we may not need them! 

The surprising Redskins are in first place in the weak NFC East, but my thinking with this team continues to be that you need to fade QB Kirk Cousins when he's coming off a good game.  Last week against the Giants, he threw for 300 yards and more importantly didn't have an INT. Cousins' performances in wins/losses this year have a real stark contrast and it's all about him either protecting or failing to protect the football. All 10 of his interceptions have come in the team's losses and interestingly enough, he hasn't gone B2B games w/o throwing a pick all season, which obviously means the team hasn't had a single win streak!  Yes, Washington has been a much better team at home this year (5-1 straight up) and this is the first time this season that they get to play B2B home games. But they are 1-3 ATS off their first four victories, getting outscored by a total 45 points.

This Cowboys' defense, which has been much maligned through the years, has actually been pretty good in 2015. Subtracting the two pick-six's from last week, that unit has allowed fewer than 20 points in four of the previous five games. Somehow, they've managed to lose twice during that time while surrendering 13 or fewer points. Both games came w/o Romo. Yes, the Cowboys have been mostly a disaster at the betting window (3-8 ATS) and haven't won a single time this season when their starting QB isn't in the lineup. But tonight marks only the second time Washington has been favored all season and they didn't cover the first (beat Tampa Bay by only 1 pt after trailing big most of the way).  8* Dallas

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  The T'wolves atypical home-road dichotomy continued with Saturday's painful 109-103 loss to Portland. I say "painful" because this young team blew a 17-pt third quarter lead and quite frankly it was a game they "should" have had. (In the interest of full disclosure, I was on them.) But the fourth quarter was "all Blazers" as they shot 67 percent compared to just 32 percent for Minnesota.  While still a perfect 9-0 ATS on the road this season, the T'wolves are a horrible 1-9 ATS at home (2-8 straight up!) and that discrepancy is about to start rectifying itself. Right? Here, we find the team essentially as a Pick 'Em against a Clippers team that is w/o Chris Paul (maybe JJ Redick too) and I'm going to back them. 

These teams already faced off once this year and because the game took place in Los Angeles, we know that Minnesota covered. They lost 107-99, but were getting 10 points from the oddsmakers in that one.  That was the start of the current three-game losing streak for the T'wolves (every loss by single digits).  Not only did Blake Griffin score 26 points for the Clippers in the win, but Paul contributed an additional 20 and Redick had 18. If the latter two don't play, the Clips need to find a way to replace that lost production and I'm not sure how they do that. Nor do I feel that we'll see a repeat of their 52% overall shooting from that game. Meanwhile, Minnesota played that first meeting w/o the services of PG Ricky Rubio. "Any time a starter is out, it's difficult to win," said T'wolves HC Sam Mitchell. Agreed. Starting in Rubio's place was Zach LaVine and he promptly missed his first six shots. 

Incredibly, the Clippers have now beaten the Timberwolves 14 straight times. That's the longest current head to head win streak in the league, save for Atlanta's 15-game run at the expense of Sacramento. Eventually, all streaks must end and in the case of the T'wolves, they have a chance to put that AND their poor record at home "to bed."  Note that the Clippers have played only six road games this season (fewest among Western Conference teams) and won only two of them. They're giving up 108 PPG away from home thus far. 10* Minnesota

8* LA Lakers (7:35 ET):  Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are just terrible. I watched PTI the other day and following Bryant's 31-point effort in Washington (a rare LA win!), they had an honest-to-god debate on whether or not he should actually reconsider his decision to retire. What? This Lakers team is 3-17 straight up and headed "nowhere fast" w/ Bryant shooting a horrific 2 for 15 in last night's blowout (111-91) loss to the Pistons.  Now that I've got that rant out of the way, I'm actually still going to make an argument to take the points w/ the Lakers tonight. First off, it's a big number and a common theme for me is that teams playing the second of B2B road games are typically being undervalued (like Golden State yday!). Secondly, it's unlikely that the Lakers will play THAT poorly again. Thirdly, Toronto is in a letdown spot after coming up short at home against the Warriors Saturday. Take the points.

I was on the Raptors two days ago as they gave the Warriors arguably their biggest scare of the entire season.  After Toronto took the outright lead w/ just over nine minutes to go, the "diff" was never more than three points the rest of the way in an excellent game. Kyle Lowry scored his career-high (41 points) there, but it was not enough.  In my analysis for that game, I mentioned just how prolific the Raptors have been as underdogs this season (now 7-1 ATS), but guess what? That also means they're just 6-6 ATS when favored (7-5 straight up!) and tonight is their "biggest ask" from the oddsmakers, meaning the most points they've had to lay in a game all season. Shockingly, the Raptors are just 4-4 SU at home this season.

As for the Lakers, obviously they're not good. But pride has to kick in at some point and I just don't see them getting blown out in B2B games. These teams did meet earlier this season, in LA, and Toronto won by 11.  So, on the surface, it doesn't look like the Lakers are being tremendously undervalued here, but they are 3-1 ATS playing in the second of B2B's, including an outright win in Washington last Wednesday.  Earlier in the year, they almost beat Orlando (lost by 2) in the exact same situation. 8* LA Lakers

9* Over Sabres/Oilers (8:05 ET):  These were the two worst teams in the league last season. That led each to draft a potentially franchise-changing player, Connor McDavid for Edmonton and Jack Eichel for Buffalo. Unfortunately, because of the injury to McDavid, we are denied of their first matchup. But that doesn't mean this one isn't worth playing as I'm looking at the total.  The Oilers currently rank 26th in the league in # of goals allowed per game (3.0), so it's only a matter of time before this little Under streak of theirs (currently at four games) comes to an end. The Sabres are coming off a five-goal effort Friday over Arizona, their fourth consecutive game scoring four or more goals!  Take the Over. 

Anders Nilsson has been incredible between the pipes for Edmonton, turning in a .953 save percentage his last four starts.  That's due to come down. He's had to make 80 saves the last two games, an incredibly high number.  In fact, in three of its last four games, the Oilers have allowed 40 or more shots. You're not going to win many games allowing that many shots, so I would call it "pretty shocking" that Edmonton has been able to win all three instances, giving up just five goals total. An opponents' shot percentage of only 6.6 the L5 games is downright unsustainable.  The Over has gone 7-4-1 at home this season for the Oilers w/ an average of 6.0 goals per game being scored. That includes 3-0 when the number is 5.0.

Meanwhile, the Under is 3-0 (w/ four pushes) in Buffalo road games when the total is 5.0. As stated earlier, this is a team that has had little difficulty scoring of late w/ 17 goals the L4 games. Granted, they've managed to do that on a rather pedestrian number of shot attempts (less than 27 per game!), but if they can get to the number that Edmonton has been allowing recently, then they should be in great shape here. Something to pay attention to as well is the Sabres' awful penalty killing unit, which ranks 28th in the league currently at 75.8 percent.  Between the pipes, they likely turn to Chad Johnson, who like his counterpart Nilsson is due to regress. 9* Over Sabres/Oilers

10* Golden State (6:05 ET):  The Warriors improved to 21-0 SU w/ yday's 112-109 win in Toronto, tied for their "closest call" of the season, a game I went against them and easily covered the +7.5 point spread. But while history says they are likely to lose on this seven-game road trip (no team in NBA history has ever swept a road trip of 7+ games), it won't be here. If you're a regular client of mine, then you already know I believe teams playing the second of B2B road games are typically underrated by the oddsmakers and that's what we have here as my own personal power ratings say Golden State should be about a 19.5-pt favorite, despite being on the road, so I'm laying the number here.

Now, Brooklyn did give Golden State a bit of a scare back on November 14th, exactly three weeks ago.  They took them to overtime (only time Warriors have been taken past regulation) and that was in Oakland.  That, along w/ this being the second of B2B road games, has conspired to keep this line much lower than it should be, IMO.  I just went against the Nets Friday night and that was an easy winner as they were blown out by the Knicks, 108-91 as 3.5-point dogs.  They trailed 42-21 after just one quarter, so it was never even really a game. Despite Brooklyn coming in at 10-1 ATS their previous 11, that was what I expected as they are still one of the league's worst teams.  Their -6.8 per game point differential is tied for the third worst in all of basketball (only 76ers and Lakers worse) and quite simply I can't see them playing Golden State tough for a second time.

Of the Warriors' 21 victories, 14 have come by a double digit margin.  Their average per game point differential is a whopping +14.8 and there have been only two instances all year where they won consecutive games by single digits.  Toronto is a very good team (why I took them!). Unlike that spot, where there was a ton of value on the Raptors (were +7.5 vs. +9.5 in Oakland), such value simply does not exist here as Brooklyn was +16.5 for the first matchup.  Golden State is 4-1 ATS playing in the second of back to backs this year & it should be "business as usual" this evening. 10* Golden State

8* North Carolina (6:00 ET):  We're down to only 14 remaining unbeatens in College Basketball and we'll continue to target this dwindling list of teams moving forward. One of the two in action Sunday is Davidson (other is St. Mary's), but Steph Curry's alma mater is a huge underdog as they travel to Chapel Hill to take on a North Carolina team that is now at full strength and that means trouble for the opposition. The Tar Heels treated me well earlier this week in a big-time win over another foe that came in unbeaten, Maryland, winning 89-81. That game marked the return of Marcus Paige, who wound up leading them w/ 20 points. Davidson has not performed well in the past vs. Top 25 opponents, losing 22 of 24 such situations.  Lay the points.

Paige, the co-preseason Player of the Year in the ACC, clearly makes UNC significantly better.  That's a scary thought for the rest of the nation as the Tar Heels opened 5-1 SU w/o him, every win coming by double digits.  Remember that this was the preseason #1 team in the country.  Speaking of double-digit victories, that's the margin Roy Williams' team has won by over Davidson each of the L2 years.  It was an 18-point victory at a neutral site last year and a 12-point win here in Chapel Hill back in 2013. This is the best Tar Heels team the Wildcats will have faced over that span. UNC has topped 80 pts in five of its seven games and their average margin of victory here at home is +18.3 points per game. 

Davidson is coming off a 100+ pt effort against Charlotte in its last game, so they certainly are going to catch a lot of respect from the oddsmakers and bettors alike. However, today represents a huge step up in class from previous opponents.  I understand that the Wildcats are a preposterously good 22-5 ATS their L27 road games, but they are also 3-32 straight up their L35 vs. ACC opponents, including 0-6 the L3 seasons.  While coming in at 5-0 SU, Davidson's first three wins all came by six points or less over the likes of UCF, College of Charleston and Mercer.  Bob McKillop's team isn't very good defensively (174th in efficiency) and Steph Curry will not be walking through that door.  8* North Carolina

8* Philadelphia (4:25 ET):  This is one of those "hold your nose" situations as the Eagles could not possibly have looked any worse for me on Thanksgiving Day as they got embarrassed by the Lions of all teams, 45-17.  It was the second straight game the defense gave up 45 points and it now appears as if HC Chip Kelly is not long for the City of Brotherly Love, which is too bad.  Kelly's Eagles won 10 games each of his first two seasons here, remember, and were 4-4 just three weeks ago after a big Sunday night victory in Dallas. I often harp on the idea of "buying low" and in this instance the stock of the guys in green could not be any lower. Recent form has led to this line being inflated and I'll gladly take the points.

New England is off its first loss of the season as last Sunday night saw them blow a 21-7 lead in Denver and lose in overtime, 30-24 as 2.5-pt favorites. Normally, you would not want to step in front of the Patriots off a loss, but this is a depleted team right now.  Tom Brady will have virtually NO ONE to throw the ball to this week as TE Rob Gronkowski is out as is Brady's favorite weapon, Julian Edelman.  Remember how we had those six unbeaten teams at 5-0 at one point?  Well, the previous four to drop a game all have struggled mightily following their first loss.  Atlanta hasn't covered a game since (0-7 ATS), Green Bay has lost four of six (including miracle win Thurs night), Denver dropped two games in a row as did Cincinnati. I'm not saying New England will lose SU here, but it won't be the same "blood is in the water" approach we're used to seeing from them.  Rather, I think they're main focus is just to get through this game in one piece. 

The Eagles have been battling some injuries of late too. Their biggest one came at QB as Mark Sanchez was largely a disaster in relief of Sam Bradford. But Bradford is expected to be back on the field Sunday and that's a huge boost for the offense, which couldn't do much w/ Sanchize at the helm. The team was up on Miami when Bradford got hurt three weeks ago and has been outscored 107-34 ever since. As much as I don't buy Bradford as any kind of long-term option as a franchise QB, at least he brings stability to the offense.  The beleaguered defense gets a break w/ the Patriots own offensive issues and if Philly has any pride whatsoever, then they'll be in this one until the very wend. Just to show how much respect they've gotten from the oddsmakers this season, this will be the first time that the Eagles are dogs of more than a field goal! 8* Philadelphia

10* New Orleans (4:25 ET):  Carolina sure did make a lot of people look foolish Thanksgiving Day (including myself) as they went into Dallas and absolutely destroyed the Cowboys, 33-14, in a game where they actually opened as the underdog despite their 10-0 (now 11-0) SU record. However, as was the case w/ New England last week (who I went against and won), I don't buy any team running the table this regular season.  The last five teams to lose their first game of the season (Atlanta, Green Bay, Denver, Cincinnati, NE), I've been on the right side EVERY time and honestly I can see this week being "that time" for the Panthers, who were actually not as dominant last week as the final score indicated.  Take the points here.

As we go "inside the box score" a little further, it is revealed that Carolina had a lot of help in achieving last week's blowout victory, mostly from the other side!  Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw three terrible interceptions, two of which were returned for Panthers' touchdowns and at that point, the game was basically over.  Carolina outgained Dallas by "only" an 84-yard margin and you have to remember that half of their first 10 victories came by seven points or less. That includes a 27-22 win over these Saints, at home, back in Week 3 when New Orleans was playing w/o QB Drew Brees.  I gave out the Saints in that spot as my *10* Game of the Week and if Luke McCown can almost beat the Panthers on the road, then so too can Drew Brees taking all these points at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. In fact, New Orleans is taking only two points less here at home than they were out on the road back in Week 3!

The Saints are not a good team this year and honestly, the future looks fairly grim once the Brees/Payton era officially comes to an end. But this is still a game at the Superdome where the offense typically performs well. The team's scoring average actually DOUBLES at home compared to on the road. Last week's 24-6 loss at Houston actually marked the first time since 2005 that they didn't score an offensive TD in a game.  The defense has only one way to go (and that's up).  This will be the most points the Saints have EVER taken at home w/ Brees as the QB.  10* New Orleans

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET):  I know what you're saying here. "Not the Browns!"  I realize they let a lot of people down Monday night (I easily won w/ the Over), losing on a "kick six" to the Ravens and now are turning to journeyman Austin Davis at QB (man, Mike Pettine must REALLY hate Johnny Manziel).  But, like the 49ers last week (covered for us at home vs. Arizona), a double digit home dog in a division matchup will always "catch my eye."  Like Arizona-San Francisco, these two AFC North teams are at opposite ends of the league's spectrum. But beware that Cleveland has lost four times this year by seven points or less while Cincinnati has played five games decided within that margin.  Take the points.

This is what I would term a classic "buy low" opportunity on the home dog. The Browns are 0-5-1 ATS their last six games and just 3-7-1 ATS for the season. The Bengals, on the other hand, are near the top of the ATS standings (9-1-1 overall) including a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road. But I believe a little "market correction" is in store this week as rarely do we find a matchup of teams w/ such disparate records at the betting window. Davis can't be viewed as any kind of significant downgrade from Josh McCown as he's got eight starts under his belt last year w/ the Rams. One of those saw him lead an upset over the Seahawks. He came in last week and threw the game-tying 41 yd TD pass and then put his team in field goal position w/ a chance to win. Back in Wk 9, the Browns played the Bengals tough for three quarters, in Cincinnati. That was w/ Johnny Football starting.

In that Week 9 victory (Thursday night game), Bengals TE Tyler Eifert caught three TD passes. It appears however, that QB Andy Dalton's favorite target is unlikely to play this week (neck injury), which is a huge break for Cleveland's defense.  Coming off a blowout victory (at home) over Davis' former team, the Rams, has only served to overvalue the Bengals this week as I believe this will be the most points they've ever had to lay on the road w/ Dalton at the helm.  With a much bigger game on deck (home vs. Pittsburgh next week), this shapes up as the classic lookahead for Cincinnati as well. The Browns played Denver tough here at home (game went to OT) and I expect the same from them this week. 8* Cleveland

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET):  The Falcons, who have burned me each of the last two weeks, have officially put themselves "behind the 8-ball."  Not only have they now failed to cover seven straight games, the longest ATS losing skid I've seen in some time, but they've lost five of six straight up after opening the season 5-0.  Some of the opponents they've lost to, whether it be New Orleans, San Francisco or Indianapolis, have been underwhelming to say the least. They also lost, at home, to Tampa Bay.  They get a shot at redemption for that loss this week and I'm going to the well yet again as Atlanta must have this game as they now find themselves on "the outside looking in" when it comes to the NFC playoff picture. Take the points. 

The original line for this game had the Falcons favored. But because of recent results, including that first meeting between these two, the Buccaneers now find themselves in the unusual role of chalk. Sure, the Bucs have proven themselves worthy as underdogs this season, going 5-4 ATS, but as chalk the results are mixed (3-6 SU/ATS L3 seasons).  They did beat Jacksonville 38-31, in a back and forth affair back in early October, but remember they were also blown out by Tennessee here at home back in Week 1. Never have they closed as a fave of even a field goal this season. Three of the last four games, Tampa Bay has failed to top 20 points. That includes last week's 25-12 loss in Indianapolis. Of interest to me is that the Falcons outgained the Bucs significantly in the earlier 23-20 loss, by over 200 yards, but were undone by a -4 turnover differential.

It is imperative here that Atlanta, particularly QB Matt Ryan, takes better care of the football.  Turnovers have been their downfall during this losing streak as they are -9 in TO differential the L7 games.  Ryan has thrown interceptions at the most inopportune times, last week he tossed one in the end zone when the offense was driving for the go-ahead score. That was the fourth time this season that Ryan has thrown an INT in the end zone, easily the most of any QB this season. Ryan's job does get easier here with the return of RB Devonta Freeman, who leads the league w/ nine rushing TD's. Meanwhile, TB could be w/o one of its top defensive players (Gerald McCoy). The most penalized team in the league, the Bucs are 1-4 SU in games where QB Jameis Winston throws an interception, so again turnovers likely determine the outcome of this one. The Falcons are due to win that battle and they are 3-0 SU/ATS as dogs already this season.  8* Atlanta