10* Seattle (4:10 ET): Surprise, surprise. I have been intensly critical of Seattle over the last month and feel I was "early" on the bandwagon pointing out that a massive decline was due to set in. The Mariners won 13 of their first 15 games, but since that time are just 9-24. They massively overachieved last year in getting to just 89 wins, so for me, a sub-.500 finish this year was all but assured. They're now well on their way to that, but I feel we can now grab them at a great "buy low" spot as yesterday may have been their nadir of the season. Look for the M's to avoid the four-game sweep at home.

This series has been as one-sided as it gets w/ the Twins outscoring the Mariners 36-11. They've won every game by at least five runs and yesterday was a beatdown of epic proportions as the final score was 18-4. Minnesota homered six times in the game, the fifth time they've hit 5+ HR in a game this year, which is the first time a team has ever done that before June. Having homered in 13 straight games, the Twins are now tied for the MLB lead in home runs, ironically w/ Seattle. I'm 2-0 in this series by the way, having cashed the Over Thursday and the Under Friday.

But as bad as things have gone the L3 days for Seattle, I think they're a great value today. Rarely do home teams get swept in a four-game series.  They send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound this afternoon and he has a 2.18 ERA and 0.726 WHIP his L3 starts. That's even after allowing three solo home runs in his last time out. I still have my suspicions about Twins starter Kyle Gibson, despite a good start to the season, record-wise. Gibson may have a 6-2 TSR, but he has an ERA north of 4.00.  10* Seattle

10* Over Blues/Sharks (3:05 ET): I'm 2-1 in this series and quite frankly should be 3-0. Were it not for the Blues getting jobbed in overtime in Game 3, the record would be perfect. I came back w/ the Blues in Game 4 and they delivered a 2-1 win to tie the series up at 2-2. Of course, the easier winner was Game 1 where I had the Over and that was a winner midway through the second period as San Jose was able to take advantage of numerous defensive lapses by St. Louis and wound up winning 6-3. Game 4 is the only game in this series not to go Over so far. 

The first three games of the series saw 9, 6 and 9 total goals scored. I can't say that I'm surprised that the first two games went Over as San Jose home games have a habit of doing that. They are 31-18-2 Over this season, including 13-3 the L16. A big key in that is that the Sharks' scoring goes up dramatically at home to 3.7 goals per game. That's something we've noted numerous times throughout the playoffs whether playing on them or the Over here at home. 

Maybe Blues goalie Jordan Binnington has hit a rookie wall as his save percentage has dropped to .884 in this series. San Jose's Martin Jones is right around that number as well at .882. Jones had a sub-.900 save percentage in the regular season anyway. San Jose is going to be tough to stop here at home, but I also feel St. Louis is going to score a few goals as well. The Over is 4-0-1 the Blues' last five games as an underdog. 10* Over Blues/Sharks

8* Over Rockies/Phillies (1:05 ET): These teams failed to go Over for me yesterday, but I'll try again today, noting recent form for both starters isn't exactly inspiring stuff. Kyle Freeland of Colorado has a 7.41 ERA and 1.588 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have gone Over. He's also been tagged for at least five runs in four of nine starts this year. He'll be opposed by Jerad Eickhoff, who has seen all five starts this year stay Under, but the last one saw him give up five runs in only four innings. Take the Over. 

Colorado now has lost three straight one-run games. They haven't managed much at the plate in this series, scoring only five runs on 14 hits in the two games. Prior to this visit to the City of Brotherly Love, the Rockies had seen the Over go 11-1 their L12 games. Now that comes w/ a bit of a caveat as all 12 games were either played w/ a DH or in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Still, they managed to score 10+ runs five times. They are more than capable of producing a big day at the plate on Sunday. 

The Phillies haven't had much offense in this series, but they haven't needed it either. I think they're in for a big day today against Freeland, who has had major problems with the long ball recently. He allowed three solo HR's in his last outing, upping the total # of HR's allowed to nine over the previous four starts. Eickhoff had been pitching well previous to the last outing, but he also has a 7.50 ERA in five previous games against the Rockies. 8* Over Rockies/Phillies

6* Megan Anderson (10:00 ET): When discussing the UFC's deepest divisions, Women's Featherweight (145 lbs) isn't likely to come up, nor should it. The division nearly became extinct when Bantamweight Champ Amanda Nunes stepped up a weight class and destroyed Cris Cyborg late last year. Nunes is a double champ now (holds title in two divisions) and w/ her next fight scheduled at 135 lbs vs. Holly Holm on July 6, featherweight almost became an afterthought. Enter Megan Anderson. 

Now it's not as if Anderson is some prized prospect nor is she immune from defeat. But w/ Cyborg out of the picture, she was the one "true" featherweight left on the roster, until some recent signings. The major weakness in her game, takedown defense, was exposed badly by Holm in a loss last summer. Then she got a little lucky to be awarded a TKO victory over Cat Zigano (eye injury) in December (same card Nunes KO's Cyborg). But by being a true featherweight, she's going to have a pretty significant edge over most opponents moving forward, including this one. 

Felicia Spencer is unbeaten at 6-0, but her getting this opportunity speaks to the dearth of talent in this division. This will be her UFC debut after, ironically enough, succeeding Anderson as Invicta's Featherweight Champ. While her last fight did show she's willing to go to the ground, I think it's going to be harder to do that here than she realizes, even w/ takedown defense admittedly being a weak spot in Anderson's game. I think there's a good chance Spencer gets caught here and this fight ends rather quickly. Anderson has three first round TKO's in her career in addition to a massive edge in height and reach. 6* Megan Anderson

10* Portland (9:05 ET): Needless to say, the Blazers have to have this game. They blew a "golden" (pun intended!) opportunity to steal one on the road, losing Game 2 114-111 after leading almost the whole way. It was in many ways reminiscent of what happened to Toronto in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Now we know how the follow-up for the Raptors went (they were blown out), but I think it'll be different for Portland as they are at home for Game 3 and in a virtual "must-win" situation. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS following a SU loss in the playoffs, including covering Game 2. Lay the short number here.

Portland was up 15 at halftime in Game 2 and looked well on their way to pulling the outright upset. Even w/ just over four minutes to go in the game, they were up eight and that was after the Warriors came back to tie things up after three quarters. But that's when the wheels came off as Golden State ended the game on a 14-3 run. As disappointing a loss as it was, I fully expect the Blazers to play better here at home. They didn't really shoot the ball well in either of the first two games w/ Damian Lillard being the biggest offender at just 10 of 28 overall from the field. At home, the Blazers average 118.1 PPG, which is well up from the 109.9 PPG they average on the road.

When Kevin Durant was lost to injury, I said you should expect Steph Curry to pick up the scoring load for the Warriors. That's exactly what has happened w/ the former league MVP scoring 30+ points in each of the L3 games. But now that they're playing on the road, don't be surprised to see Golden State struggle a bit more to score. By the way, Portland has not lost three straight games since early December. Since that time, they are 6-0 SU off B2B losses, covering the spread five times. Lillard is going to play better here and the Blazers will win.  10* Portland

8* Over Cubs/Nationals (7:15 ET): The Cubs came out and crushed the Nationals last night, winning by a score of 14-6. They jumped on the home team early, scoring three runs in the first two innings, then poured it on late w/ 11 runs over the final three frames to put the game away for good. In a rare ocurrence, Kris Bryant became just the 12th player in MLB history to homer in three consecutive innings. Obviously, we don't need nearly that many runs to be scored for an Over. With both teams having suspect bullpens, this total looks very low. Take the Over.

The Cubs needed a game like yday after they'd lost each of the previous two days to the (underrated) Reds. Tonight they send Jon Lester to the mound and he's admittedly been red hot of late w/ a 0.00 ERA and 1.017 WHIP his L3 starts. He's working on a 19 2/3 scoreless inning streak, but has given up 18 hits during that time. So I think some regression may be in store for Mr. Lester Saturday night. Then there is the Cubs' bullpen, which has a 5.74 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP on the road. Speaking of the road, Cubs' away games this year have been very high scoring (Over is 14-6). They are averaging 6.6 rpg (#1 in MLB) while giving up 5.2. This is a stark contrast to the games at Wrigley where they are allowing the FEWEST runs per game in all of baseball. 

Speaking of bad bullpens, it doesn't get any worse than the Nationals, whose relivers have posted a gaudy 7.48 ERA and 1.80 WHIP at home this season. Last night was a bad effort even by this pen's low standard. The Cubs homered six times yesterday off Nationals' pitching. Stephen Strasburg will be leaned on heavily here and he's just hoping his teammates can score some runs, something that hasn't happened in his last two outings (both 6-0 losses). I think Strasburg will get some run support this time around, but like Lester, look for him to also struggle more than usual here. 8* Over Cubs/Nationals

10* Over Rockies/Phillies (4:05 ET): This series opened w/ the Phillies winning 5-4 yesterday, a nice reprieve for them as they'd just dropped three in a row here at home to Milwaukee. Colorado had the benefit of an off-day going into yday, but showed little life w/ only five hits, so in some ways they were fortunate to score four runs. Last night was the first time in over two weeks that the Rockies didn't get to enjoy the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field or the use of the DH (played two games in Boston). But note their previous two road games in a NL park (Milwaukee) yielded an impressive 22 runs scored. They've scored 10 or more runs five times in the L13 games overall. 

We've got two struggling starters on the bump for Saturday. Colorado's Antonio Senzatela has posted a 7.04 ERA and 1.434 WHIP his L3 starts, upping those numbers to 5.34 and 1.395 respectively for the season. Obviously, he's got to deal w/ the Coors effect too (works both ways for the Rockies!), but lately it hasn't mattered where Senzatela has pitched, the game has ended up high scoring. The last five Senzatela starts have all gone Over w/ a average of 15 total runs scored per game. This is right line w/ recent team results as the Over is 11-1-1 the L13 times the Rockies have take the field. 

The Phillies counter w/ Aaron Nola, who is somehow unbeaten (3-0) in his nine starts (5-4 TSR) despite a 5.34 ERA and 1.395 WHIP. Like Senzatela, we've gotten mostly Overs out of Nola starts. The Over is 8-1 in his nine starts, including 3-0 the L3. Nola lasted only three innings his last time out. The Over has gone 8-2-1 the L11 times these teams have met at Citizens Bank Park (last night was the push). All signs point to this being a high-scoring game. 10* Over Rockies/Phillies

8* Genoa FC (12:00 ET): With two matches left, Genoa is hoping to avoid relegation. They're one point clear currently and do not exactly have the most challenging remaining schedule. But in order to feel better about their chances of survival, they'll need to do something they have not done since March 17th and that's win. They are 0-5-3 the L8 matches, including a 2-1 loss last week to an Atalanta side that was hungry for securing a Champions League spot. I feel this play sets up very similar to our play in the Bundesliga two weeks ago (on Bayer Leverkusen) in that we will have the far more motivated side. 

Currently 12th in the table, Cagliari has essentially nothing to play for these next two weeks, which is a dangerous place to be in. Recently, they were in the news for all the wrong reasons as their fans were caught making racist chants at several Juventus players. This is not exactly a side in fine form either as they've won just twice in their last seven matches, including three consecutive losses. With no fear of relegation and no hope of Champions League qualification, I see no reason to expect much from Cagliari on Saturday. 

Adding to the motivation on the Genoa side is that they'll be taking the pitch w/ some revenge on their mind for a 1-0 defeat back on December 26th. The lone goal was scored in stoppage time, right before halftime. I mentioned earlier that Genoa has not won since March 17th. Well, the side they beat that day was Juventus, who happens to be atop the Serie A table. Since then, there's been some bad luck, such as missing a stoppage time PK two weeks ago vs. AS Roma. But the bottom line here is Genoa has a very similar goal differential to Cagliari, so don't be fooled by the respective positions in the table. 8* Genoa FC

8* Under Twins/Mariners (10:10 ET): Yesterday, it was the Over that brought home the cash for me on this matchup. Today, it's time to look to go Under. Yes, in yesterday's analysis, I did write extensively about how the Mariners' offensive decline had been "offset" by them giving up runs in bunches recently. Sure enough, Thursday was a fine example of that. They lost 11-6 to the Twins and were down 9-1 by the fourth inning (which is when the Over hit). But a big difference here is the starting pitching, which should be a lot more solid than it looked on paper yday. Take the Under. 

Michael Pineda starting for the Twins yday was a big reason I had the Over. He actually wound up pitching relatively well, going seven innings while allowing only three runs. That's a good sign moving forward for a Minnesota team that has gotten some shockingly good starting pitching thus far (big reason why they lead the AL Central at 28-15). Tonight's starter is Martin Perez and he's 4-1 in six starts w/ a 2.13 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He's been even better of late w/ a 1.35 ERA and 0.80 WHIP his L3 starts. I see the trend continuing against a Seattle lineup that is hitting a collective .186 over the past week. 

Again, I'm not surprised to see the Mariners regressing so dramatically after a shocking 13-2 start to the season. I had them as one of the biggest regression teams in all of baseball coming into the year. While they have been giving up a ton of runs of late, Marco Gonzales should be a welcome sight on the mound as he sports a 2.93 home ERA. He has also not allowed more than 3 ER in any start this season. The Under is 5-1 this season when Gonzales starts on normal rest. The Under is also 4-0 in Perez's last four starts overall. 8* Under Twins/Mariners

10* Over Royals/Angels (10:07 ET): Neither team comes into this series in exactly "fine form." Kansas City really took one on the chin yday at home, losing 16-1 to Texas. They've lost four of five to stay in the AL Central basement and in all four losses, they've been held to 1 or 0 runs. Interestingly enough though, they scored 11 in the lone victory. They've also given up at least five runs in all five games. Now they'll head out on the road to face an Angels team that has also dropped two straight, although they had Thursday off. Take the Over in this one. 

The Angels played three one-run games in Minnesota to start the week, winning one and losing twice. Down four runs entering the ninth on Wednesday, a rally ultimately fell short. Still, the Halos have to be feeling good about their chances here considering not only KC's poor 5-14 road record, but also their own scoring average here at home, which currently sits at 5.8 runs per game. Over the L7 games, LA is averaging 6.3 rpg while batting a collective .335, so they can score. 

Neither starting pitcher inspires a lot of confidence here either. The Royals turn to Brad Keller, who has a 7.05 ERA and 1.892 WHIP his L3 starts. He's given up at least five runs in three of his last four starts. Last time out, he was charged w/ only five, but gave up six (one unearned) in a 7-0 loss to the Phillies. In three of his last five starts, Keller has had more walks that strikeouts, which is a bad sign. He leads the American League in walks w/ 32. As for the Angels, Matt Harvey has not been good, especially here at home where he sports a 10.05 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. Harvey has lasted less than five innings in five of his past seven starts. The Over is 9-1-1 in the Angels' last 11 games following a loss. 10* Over Royals/Angels 

10* Toronto (8:35 ET): Each of the last two nights in the NBA playoffs, we've seen the underdog lose (straight up) in the most painful way possible, that being giving away the lead late after losing most of the game. Portland was up by 15 at halftime last night, but at least they still ended up covering (+7.5). Toronto couldn't even do that, even after leading almost the entirety of Game 1 here in Milwaukee. The Raptors, specifically Kawhi Leonard, wilted late and didn't score a single basket over the final four minutes. The end result was them losing 108-100 as a 6.5-pt underdog. 

As the final seconds of Game 1 ticked away, the announcers were not shy about "shoveling some dirt" on the Raptors' proverbial grave. "This is like losing two games," they exclaimed. Reggie Miller and Chris Webber are of course both pretty bad and I think the demise of Toronto has been greatly exaggerated here. Again, the did lead almost the entire way in Game 1. We're not necessarily asking them to win tonight, they only need to cover. Given how good they have been defensively in the playoffs (only 96.9 PPG allowed), covering the spread is more than reasonable here. 

What makes the Game 1 result all the more infuriating for the Raptors is that Kyle Lowry played very well, scoring 30 points on 10 of 15 shooting (made seven three-pointers). But Leonard faded badly down the stretch (fatigue?) w/ only two points in the fourth quarter (still ended up w/ a team-high 31). Pascal Siakam (15 pts) was the only other Raptor in double figures, so it'll need to be more of a "team effort" this time around. Again, definitely possible and make note of the fact Toronto is 10-1 ATS this season when coming off 3 or more ATS losses. They have not lost B2B games SU since late March. 10* Toronto

9* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The curious case of the Blues losing at home in the postseason continued on Wednesday in the most excruciating way possible as they lost in overtime to the Sharks, 5-4. It was bad enough that the Blues gave up the game-tying goal w/ just over a minute left in regulation. But then in OT they were hosed by the officials, who missed a hand pass that set up the winning goals for San Jose. Now St. Louis did trail early, 3-1, before storming back to score three straight goals. But I don't see them falling into any kind of similar hole for Game 4. In fact, I think it will be quite the opposite as they come out as the hungrier and more motivated team.

The Blues are now just 3-5 SU on home ice in these playoffs, which I find it hard to wrap my head around. They ended the regular season on a 14-2 SU run here at the Enterprise Center. But I just can't see them losing again here, not w/ their season basically "hanging in the balance." Were they to fall down 3-1 in the series, which heads back to San Jose for Game 5, that would be big-time trouble. I talked about this in my Game 3 analysis, but the Sharks are not nearly as potent offensively on the road compared to at home (where they average 3.7 gpg for the year). Going into Game 3, San Jose was just 2-4 SU in playoff road games and had been outscored 21-12. 

So I was definitely surprised to see them strike early and often Wednesday night w/ three goals less than two minutes into the second period. In two of their four playoff losses on the road, the Sharks had been shutout. It was just the second time scoring more than three goals. Note that the first was Game 3 of the Colorado series and then they were shutout in the next game. Blues' goaltender Jordan Binnington led the league in GAA (1.89) in the regular season and bounces back here. 9* St. Louis

10* Over Twins/Mariners (10:10 ET): This shapes up to be a pretty interesting weekend series in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle was the "toast of the town" early in the season as they started out 13-2. But I never bought in, noting not only the unsustainable number of home runs they were hitting, but also the "built-in" regression set to take hold from last year's overachievement. The Mariners may wish to share an "enjoy it while it lasts" w/ the visitors here as it's now the Twins that have taken the American League by storm w/ a 27-15 mark that leads the Central Division. 

Although their offense has slowed down greatly over the last month or so, Seattle is still among the top teams in the league in runs scored. Their games have continued to go Over at an incredible pace (31-11-3 Over in all games) as they're now giving up runs in bunches as well. They've even managed to surpass the hideous Baltimore staff as having given up the most runs in all of MLB. Tonight's starter is Erik Swanson and he knows as thing or two about giving up runs. He has a 6.15 ERA on the season and it's only gotten worse w/ him allowing seven runs in his last start (in just 4 2/3 innings), an ugly 14-1 loss to Boston. It was the second 14-1 loss for Seattle in Swanson's last three trips to the mound! 

Minnesota has gotten shockingly good pitching from some of its starters this year, but Michael Pineda hasn't really been one of them. He has a 5.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in his eight starts. Like Swanson, he's trending in the wrong direction as those numbers have only gotten worse w/ recent efforts. Pineda allowed 3 HR's in his last start and was quite fortunate they were all of the solo variety. The Twins still lost, 5-3 to the Tigers, mind you. They won yday, holding off the Angels 8-7 at home. The road is where this offense has done its most damage though, averaging 6.0 rpg. 10* Over Twins/Mariners 

10* Over Blazers/Warriors (9:05 ET): I don't think there's any denying that Portland played a poor Game 1, especially on the offensive end of the floor. Perhaps it had something to do w/ the fact they were basically 48 hours removed from winning a Game 7 on the road. They came back from 17 points down to win in Denver on Sunday, a 100-96 upset as 5.5-point dogs. I had the Under in that one, which was a winner, but the Over was NOT a winner here for me in Game 1 of the WCF. Golden State certainly did its part though, scoring 116 pts (even w/o Kevin Durant) and I think the Blazers should have a bounce back game offensively tonight. Thus, I'm on the Over yet again! 

As Portland's C.J. McCollum was leading the way w/ 37 points in that Game 7 victory in Denver, LeBron James wasn't afraid to voice his approval (via Twitter) for McCollum's preference for "mid-range jumpers." Perhaps it was another case of "too much bubbly" for the King though in his mini anti-analytics rant. Yes, McCollum was quite successful in that game, but the bottom line is Portland has been in a shooting slump as a team of late. The last two games have seen them go a disastrous 11 of 54 from three-point range. Unlike James, I would advise the Blazers to keep shooting though. They are above 35% for the year from behind the arc and the three-point shot is their best weapon in trying to keep pace w/ the Warriors. Look for them to shoot their way out of the slump starting tonight. 

Golden State is NOT in any kind of slump as they've scored 118 and 116 points in the two games w/o Durant. They shot 50% in Game 1 and as expected Steph Curry picked up the slack in Durant's absence. Curry went 9 of 15 from three-point range and scored 36 points. I expect him to continue to have a big series. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, oddsmakers have set a low O/U line here. None of the four regular season matchups between the Warriors & Blazers saw fewer than 219 total pts scored. For the final regular season meeting, the O/U line was set at 235.5 points and the game still went Over! 10* Over Blazers/Warriors

8* Oakland (1:10 ET): As we reach the quarter pole of this MLB season, I've been hard at work identifying teams that I feel have either over or underperformed. For the basis of this decision, I lean heavily on a team's run differential, which I have always felt is a much better predictor of future outcomes than say a team's actual won-loss record. One team that I feel is set to really hit the skids is Detroit. Sure, things haven't been that rosy already w/ them coming into today's game at 18-23 overall. But considering the Tigers have been outscored by 67 runs so far (3rd worst in MLB), they should probably be even worse. 

Detroit has a difference of +5 when it comes to actual vs. expected win total. Being outscored by 67 runs puts them at the "expectancy" of a 13-win club. To put things in their proper perspective, Kansas City (the one team the Tigers are ahead of in the AL Central) has a 15-28 WL record. But they've only been outscored by 19 runs. The team right ahead of the Tigers (the White Sox) has a YTD run differential of -31 and that's w/ just a one game gap in the standings. Detroit has been blown out numerous times this season, many of them coming recently during a 2-6 slide. They've been outscored 57-19 during that time.

The Tigers were just swept here at home by Houston to start the week. Similarly, Thursday's opponent (Oakland) also comes in on a three-game skid. But the A's got yday off after dropping two in Seattle. Another edge Oakland has coming into this game is they have absolutely owned the Tigers, going 12-1 against them the previous two seasons, including a perfect 7-0 in 2018. Starter Chris Bassitt is deserving of far better than a 1-3 TSR as he's allowed only seven runs in 24 2/3 IP. He's got a 0.973 WHIP. Detroit goes w/ Spencer Turnbull, who has a 4-0 TSR his L4 starts, but his ERA and WHIP are both higher than Bassitt's. 8* Oakland 

8* NY Mets (1:05 ET): Few, if any, teams have disappointed me more this season than have the Nationals. They are a team I had earmarked for some serious improvement this year, despite the loss of Bryce Harper. But injuries have definitely taken their toll so far as the Nats are eight games under .500 despite beating the Mets 5-1 yday. This would be the rubber match between the NL East rivals as the Mets took the opener on Tuesday by score of 6-2. The oddsmakers have definitely taken a position on this game as have the sharp bettors and I'm w/ them. Take the Mets. 

It would certainly appear to be a rather large pitching mismatch (in favor of NY) here today. The Mets send Zack Wheeler to the bump for this series finale. While Wheeler's career numbers against Washington aren't great, his recent overall numbers are pretty impressive. Five of Wheeler's last six starts have been of the quality variety w/ the last two each seeing him go 7 innings while allowing just 2 ER. He also has 21 strikeouts in those two starts. Three times in the last four starts, he's struck out 10+ batters. It also helps that he'll be facing a lineup that is batting a collective .175 over the past 7 games. Another positive is that the Mets are 29-14 their L43 times off a loss. 

Injuries haven't been the only concern for Washington thus far. The backend of the starting rotation has been a disaster as Jeremy Hellickson and Anibal Sanchez have a combined 5-10 team start record. Sanchez goes today and he's 0-6 (2-6 TSR) having logged just 41 IP in his eight starts to go along w/ a 5.27 ERA and 1.683 WHIP. Sanchez is seeking to avoid being the 2nd Nationals starter in team history (doesn't include the Expos) to start a year 0-7. He allowed 2 HRs in his last start and the Nats have lost his L5 turns overall. The Nats are also 0-6 the L6 times they've been off a game where they scored 5+ runs. 8* NY Mets

8* Over Brewers/Phillies (1:05 ET): We'll certainly be looking to "buck" the trends on this play as Milwaukee starter Zach Davies has seen the Under come in for all eight of his starts this season. That's no coincidence either seeing as Davies has a 1.54 ERA in those eight starts, although his WHIP (1.221) is a little bit higher than you might expect. (He's had a couple of starts w/ more walks than strikeouts). Speaking of trends, the two previous games in this series have stayed Under w/ the Brew Crew winning 5-2 and 6-1. But don't be surprised if the Phillies' bats wake up Thursday afternoon. Take the Over. 

The Phillies are now 6-1 Under the L7 games. All six Unders have been games w/ seven or less total runs scored. The exception was the opener of this four-game series, which Philly won 7-4. They've managed only three runs in two games since and yday saw them held to one run over the final eight innings. While none of this information lends itself to an Over play, note Davies has a 7.15 ERA in two previous starts vs. the Phils. Both his ERA and WHIP do go (noticeably) up when he pitches on the road. The Over is 9-1-1 in Milwaukee's last 11 finales of a four-game series. 

Philadelphia will be sending out its own strong starter named "Zach." That being Zach Eflin, who has two complete games in his last three starts and a 0.72 ERA/0.68 WHIP during that time. All three starts have stayed Under and the Under is also 3-0 in Eflin home starts. So again, we're "defying convention" here. Eflin faces a Brew Crew team that is 5-1 Under its last six games. Life just has a funny way of working itself out sometimes and Eflin is not immune to a poor starts. Back on April 13th, he gave up six runs to a Miami team that is dead last in MLB in scoring. 8* Over Brewers/Phillies  

10* Toronto (8:35 ET): This will be just the second time this postseason that the Raptors have been underdogs. Given the kind of defense we've seen from them in the first two rounds, this would seem to be a nice value. The only previous time they were getting points in these playoffs was Game 4 of the Philadelphia series (+2), a contest they actually opened as the slight favorite and wound up winning outright, 101-96. I had them there. While I won't guarantee an outright victory this time around, taking the points is definitely the way to go in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. 

As stated above, the defense we're seeing from the Raptors in the playoffs has been pretty remarkable. They are giving up just 96 PPG on 41.3% shooting. Now they will be facing the top scoring team in the league now, but I think Toronto will be up to the challenge. Just twice in the last 11 games have the Raptors given up over 100 points. While both exceptions came on the road (at Philadelphia), don't think for a second that Toronto won't be able to score here as well. They average 113.1 PPG and while they hit that average only once in the Philly series, don't be surprised at a breakout offensive performance tonight.

Milwaukee had a much easier time than expected w/ Boston in Round 2. That has them as the overwhelming favorite to win this series. But, make no mistake, the Raptors are a better team than the dysfunctional Celtics. The Bucks also lost Game 1 to Boston on this court. That's their only loss of the postseason, but still. There is a question of "rest vs. rust" here w/ Milwaukee having been off for so long (last played exactly one week ago). And the Bucks' track record is not good in this spot as they are just 5-14-1 ATS the L20 times they've played on three or more days rest. 10* Toronto

10* Under Rangers/Royals (8:15 ET): Yesterday just seemed like a rare spot where KC was likely to come through, and they did, beating Texas by a score of 11-5. The Royals have actually played better than their record, which is second worst in the entire American League. But consider despite being 15-27 on the year, the Royals have only been outscored by 14 runs. For the sake of comparison, Baltimore is 14-27, but has been outscored by more than FIVE times that amount. However, I will say that it's going to be tougher to win today w/ Jorge Lopez on the hill. 

The biggest problem for the Rangers right now is that they are giving up way too many runs. In just the last three games, they've allowed 37! Seven of their last nine games have gone Over and they've lost five in a row as they were swept over the weekend in Houston. But look for Wednesday starter Mike Minor to mitigate the damage. Minor has been the top starter in the Texas rotation, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in eight starts. He's gone at least six innings in six of his last seven starts while allowing more than 2 ER just twice during that span. Three times, he hasn't allowed any runs. The Under is 4-1 the L5 times he's taken the mound.

Texas is a poor road team (5-15 WL record) and may have to go w/o SS Elvis Andrus tonight. That'll make it even harder to score runs, a nice break for the struggling Lopez. But while Lopez has struggled, four of his last five starts have been on the road. It's not like he is incapable of pitching well. He had a quality start back on April 11th against a Seattle team that was hitting the cover off the ball at the time. Also, last September, he took a perfect game all the way into the ninth inning. Something to note here is that the Under is 20-5-2 the L27 times these teams have met here at Kauffman Stadium. 10* Under Rangers/Royals

analysis soon

8* Over Cardinals/Braves (7:20 ET): The ESPN cameras head to SunTrust Park in Atlanta for Wednesday Night Baseball where the home team will look to fare better than they did last night when they took a 14-3 loss courtesy of St. Louis. The Cardinals hit 4 HR's, which accounted for most of the runs scored, and were up 11-0 before the Braves did any damage offensively. Now the Redbirds were facing a struggling starter last night in Mike Foltynewicz. Tonight they go against Mike Soroka, who has allowed just 4 ER in 5 starts this season. But you have to figure Atlanta is going to do more at the plate tonight as well. Take the Over. 

Soroka hasn't given up any home runs yet, so St. Louis may need to find another method of scoring here. Perhaps easier said than done against Soroka, though he has clearly benefited from facing some of the weaker offensive teams in the National League so far. Plus, St. Louis is now 6-1 all-time in this park and 9-1 its L10 visits to Atlanta overall. The last six times these teams have played, the game has gone Over, as have 9 of the last 10 meetings. In just its last four games here in Atlanta, the Cardinals have scored a total of 36 runs. They are averaging a healthy 5.2 per game this season. 

You have figure the Braves will fare better at the plate tonight than they did yday when they managed only three hits. They'll also be facing a starter in Michael Wacha who has a very misleading 3-0 WL record. Wacha has a 5.35 ERA And 1.648 WHIP in seven starts and has struggled recently by giving up nine runs in his last 10 2/3 IP. Wacha has never beaten Atlanta in five career tries (4.12 ERA). The Over is 32-15-4 in his L51 road starts. Last time he started, the Cardinals scored 17 runs as the Over is now 5-1-1 in all starts this season. Five of the Cards' last nine games have seen the winning side score 10+ runs. 8* Over Cardinals/Braves 

10* Over Blazers/Warriors (9:05 ET): Congrats go out to Portland, who on Sunday became the rare road team to win a Game 7. They did so against a Denver team I've long thought was suspect due to what was a very fortunate record in close games. But all that's earned the Blazers is a date w/ Golden State, who is making its fifth consecutive appearance in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors will play Game 1 w/o Kevin Durant (injured), but as we saw in the close out game vs. Houston, they still have more than enough "horses" to get the job done. Take the Over here in Game 1. 

Portland did win twice in Denver in the last series and both times it was a result of holding the Nuggets under 100 points. Good luck to doing that against Golden State, however, even w/ no Durant. The Warriors scored 118 w/o Durant against Houston on Friday, shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor. I had the Over in that game, which cashed pretty easily as the oddsmakers clearly overreacted to the Durant injury (set low O/U line). Sure enough, the total here looks low as well. None of the four regular season matchups between the Warriors & Blazers saw fewer than 219 total pts scored. The last time they met, the O/U line was set at 235.5 points and the game still went Over!

There's shockingly little difference in either points scored or allowed for Golden State when it comes to home vs. road games. But home games are a little higher scoring w/ an average of 229.6 total PPG scored. Portland averages fewer PPG on the road than at home, but still scores 110.3 PPG. They give up around the same number. In the playoffs, the Blazers' total PPG average has stayed relatively consistent to what we saw in the regular season. Golden State games have averaged a slightly higher number of PPG. 10* Over Blazers/Warriors

8* Portland (9:05 ET): Considering the Blazers were able to win twice in Denver (who had the league's best home record), there's no reason to doubt they can't win a game at Golden State. Plus the Warriors are playing without their best player Kevin Durant. Now we certainly can't discount the embarrassment of riches the Dubs enjoy, talent-wise. They still have Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. But this was a team that was certainly susceptible to losing at home in the regular season and they lost twice here in the 1st round to the Clippers. They are only 18-28-1 ATS in all home games for the year. Take the points in Game 1.

Golden State won all three home games in the Houston series, but those three victories were by a total of 15 points and none by greater than six.  When they went into Game 6 at Houston w/o Durant, there was a pretty clear overadjustment by the oddsmakers in terms of both the side and total. It was the most points the Warriors were getting for any playoff game under HC Steve Kerr and they took advantage by pulling an outright upset. But, here, it appears as if they (meaning the oddsmakers) have overcompensated the "other way" in that there seems as if there's been NO adjustment for Durant's absence. 

Portland did win here once in the regular season, right after Christmas, 110-109 as nine-point underdogs (in OT). Overall, they split the four regular season meetings. The Warriors were at "full strength" in all four of those games as well. Both losses found Golden State coming in extra motivated. They were on a four-game losing streak (longest of the Kerr-era) heading into the season's first meeting and then it was the second game of a home and home (Portland won the first) the other time they beat the Blazers. No such additional motivation is present here. If anything, I expect Portland to be the more motivated side. 8* Portland

10* Carolina (8:05 ET): The Hurricanes find themselves down in an 0-2 hole in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it's not as if they haven't been here before. Back in Round 1, they dropped Games 1 and 2 at Washington before storming to take back that series in seven games. They came into the ECF having won 8 of 9 overall. They allowed just five total goals in sweeping the Islanders in the last round, so the fact they have allowed *11* in two games to the Bruins is definitely downright shocking. Throughout the playoffs, I've leaned on Carolina's Corsi For % (best in the league during the regular season) and I won't deviate from that script here. Take them in Gm 3.

I though the final score of Game 1 (5-2 Bruins) was pretty misleading. Carolina led going into the third period, but Boston scored four times in the final 20 minutes to take the 1-0 series lead. Two of those four goals came on the power play, just 28 seconds apart, and another was on an empty net. Game 2 was far more decisive w/ the Bruins scoring the game's first six goals (two per period) before the 'Canes struck for two late meaningless ones. The good news though is that Carolina is now back home where they have yet to taste defeat in these playoffs (5-0). They're also favored on the moneyline, another good sign here considering they are 23-5 the L28 times they've taken the ice as a ML fave.

Carolina had only 23 shots on goal in Game 2, which is a very low number for them. They led the league in the regular season w/ an average of 34.4 shots per game. In Game 1, they actually outshot Boston. To go back to Corsi For %, it is a measure of how much time a team possesses the puck relative to its opponents. The Hurricanes also led the league in this department during the regular season. Because of that, I very much bought into this club as a "darkhorse" coming into the playoffs. Again, I'm not about to "abandon ship" now. 10* Carolina

10* Under Rays/Marlins (7:10 ET): Tampa Bay has shot to the top of the AL East standings on the basis of their tremendous pitching. The Rays have - by far - allowed the fewest runs in all of baseball to this point. In 39 games, they've allowed the opponent to score only 123 times. That's 30 fewer runs allowed than every other American League team. The weekend brought some bad news - not just w/ the Tyler Glasnow injury (out 4-6 weeks), but the team also dropped two of three at home to the Yankees. Thus a trip to face lowly Miami will be quite welcome at this point of the schedule. 

The Marlins are atrocious. I have them rated as the worst team in the entire sport and don't figure there will be much argument with that. They have a 10-29 record and have been outscored by 91 runs thus far. Both the record and run differential are MLB worsts. Considering the Rays' pitching prowess, this looks to be a particularly bad matchup for Miami, who happens to rank dead last in the league in runs scored. They've scored just 105 runs in 39 games. To put that in perspective, the team w/ the next lowest number of runs scored in the NL is Pittsburgh w/ 141 and they've played one less game. So far, the Marlins are averaging just 2.3 runs per game in May and half of the everyday lineup has accounted for just ONE extra base hit! 

On the bright side, Tampa Bay will be w/o the DH in this series, thus affecting their own offense. Miami has its best starting pitcher going Tuesday, that being Caleb Smith, who is top five in the NL in both ERA (2.11) and K's per nine innings (11.8). He has yet to lose a decision in seven starts. Tampa Bay comes in having been held to three runs or fewer in 6 of its last 10 games. So Smith should pitch well here today. So should Rays' starter Charlie Morton. Not only is Morton facing the worst offense in the game (feel free to re-read the numbers above), but he also comes in w/ a 1.61 ERA in four road starts (4-0 TSR). Morton has allowed more than 2 ER in only one of his eight starts this year. 10* Under Rays/Marlins 

8* Over Cubs/Reds (6:40 ET): I think Cincinnati is a lot better than its record. While the Reds are 18-23 and currently in last place in the NL Central, they have a +30 run differential, which is certainly indicative of a team that should have a winning record. Only three teams in the entire Senior Circuit have better run differentials and those three happen to be the division leaders! Unfortunately though (perhaps?) for the Reds, they'll be taking on one of those division leaders for the next three games, that being the first place team in their own division, the Cubs. 

Now it should be pointed out that the Reds have put together a few "big" games this year, which is why they have such a positive run differential in spite of the losing record. There have been two wins by a total of 25 runs. Take those away and you're still looking at what should be closer to a .500 team. The Reds were very close to sweeping the Giants over the weekend, but lost the final game (Sunday), 5-4. The good news for this series is they are back at home where they average a healthy 5.4 runs per game. That's a drastic improvement from the 3.5 rpg they average on the road. The Cubs come into this series riding a 5-game Under streak, but all those games were played at Wrigley. Looking at only home games, the Cubs staff is #1 in all of baseball right now in terms of ERA, runs allowed and opponents batting average. Curiously, their offense also improves rather dramatically on the road, jumping up to 6.7 rpg. 

One player on the Cubs' roster that really feels the home vs. road split is today's starter Kyle Hendricks. His last two starts have seen him allow just one (unearned) run in 17 IP. But both were at home and the last one was against light-hitting Miami. On the road, Hendricks is 0-3 and has an 8.78 ERA/2.476 WHIP. For the Reds, Tanner Roark is coming off his best start of 2019 as he tossed six shutout innings of three-hit ball in Oakland. I would expect him to regress some. This game taking place at Great American Ballpark is huge for the total, given how the Cubs offense performs on the road, how the Reds offense performs at home (relative to the road) and Hendricks' home vs. road splits. 8* Over Cubs/Reds

10* Cleveland (8:10 ET): The Indians are above .500, but have a negative run differential after some inconsistent play of late. They dropped two of three in Oakland over the weekend, but both losses came in the final at-bat. A sweep was avoided Sunday w/ a 5-3 win. The series before that saw the Tribe split four games w/ these very same White Sox. They dropped the first two games before coming back to even things up, including an abbreviated series finale (game called after five innings). This time, I see Cleveland starting the series w/ a win behind Shane Bieber, who was successful against Chicago in his previous outing. 

Bieber last started for the Indians when they were off B2B losses to the White Sox. He went 6 1/3 innings and gave up just three runs, allowing his team to get the 5-3 win. It was Bieber's sixth quality start in seven tries overall (lone exception was vs. an NL team). and he is unbeaten on the road this year (1.89 ERA, 0.947 WHIP). He has walked two or fewer batters in five of his seven starts. Also note that Bieber threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball the last time he pitched here on the Southside of Chicago, back in September. This is a very good starter. 

The White Sox will go w/ Reynaldo Lopez, who has struggled. He started opposite Bieber last Wednesday as well and while he didn't pitch poorly, only two strikeouts in six innings isn't a great sign. Lopez has already had three starts this year where he failed to get past the fifth inning while allowing 6+ runs. He has a 6.38 ERA and 1.748 WHIP in his eight starts overall and the White Sox are giving up a ton of runs at home this year. They allow 6.8 per game to be exact, which is third most in all of baseball. Only Colorado (Coors Field) and Baltimore (hideous) have allowed more. Cleveland's offense gets on track here. 10* Cleveland

8* Houston (7:10 ET): At first glance, my thought was the Tigers might be able to keep this a low-scoring affair due to Matt Boyd being on the hill. That may still be the case. Boyd has a 2.86 ERA and 0.934 WHIP after eight starts. But the bottom line is that Detroit also simply lacks the firepower to stay competitive w/ the mighty Astros. The Tigers come in averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is dead last among American League teams. The surging Astros, winners of 8 of their last 9, are now #3 in all of MLB in runs scored and are 1st overall in OPS. They've scored 10 or more runs in four of those last eight wins, including 26 total (15 yday) the L2 days.

Now there is a good chance the Houston lineup is somewhat slowed down today by Boyd, who has delivered seven straight quality outings. Last time out, here at home, Boyd tossed six innings of three-hit ball and allowed just one run. But he's yet to face a lineup as potent as what the Astros send to the plate. In three career starts vs. Houston, Boyd has an ERA of 5.71. Plus, the Tigers have a bad bullpen whose numbers are actually worse at home than on the road. The Tigers are giving up 5.2 rpg here at Comerica Park. This is a team that now ranks second-to-last (Baltimore) in run differential in the American League.

Detroit did manage to take 2 of 3 from 1st place Minnesota Saturday & Sunday (Saturday was a doubleheader). But they've still scored more than five runs in a game just one time since April 26th. Houston put 15 on the board yday alone, even w/ Jose Altuve out of the lineup. Leadoff man George Springer is on fire right now, including a 5 for 5 day at the plate yday. Monday's starter Brad Peacock tossed seven shutout innings his last time out (w/ 12 Ks) and he has a 2.38 ERA in five career appearances vs. Detroit. The Astros took five of six from the Tigers LY and this should be another successful series for them, starting today. 8* Houston

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): If you're a little surprised that I'd be taking the 76ers in this winner take all situation, well, join the club. Given how I'd played this series so far (only taking Toronto when playing the side), I wouldn't have thought I'd be on the underdog in Game 7 either. But over the course of the series, it's become pretty clear to me that these teams are more evenly matched than I thought, even though Philly was destroyed here (by 36 pts!) in Game 5. They responded by taking Game 6 (at home), 112-101. Only two of the six games so far have been decided by single digits, but I think this one will be. Take the points. 

I've talked about the Raptors' defense being exceptional in previous analysis. But Philadelphia has managed to shoot well against them in two of the past four games. Granted, both were at home where they average a far higher number of points per game. But I think a big key here is going to be Joel Embiid's health. He definitely appeared over his illness in Game 6 where he scored 17 points and grabbed 12 rebounds. Jimmy Butler led all Sixers' scorers w/ 25 points and also had eight rebounds and six assists. 

While Toronto's Kawhi Leonard has been the best player in the series - for either team - his teammates have not always been there to support him. In Game 6, Pascal Siakam was the only other Raptor w/ more than 13 points. The starting five combined to go 7 of 28 from three-point range. While it certainly can be argued that we'll see improvement from the "supporting cast" here at home in Game 7, I don't think it'll be enough to cover the generous pointspread. Philly has its "demons" here in Toronto (lost 15 of last 16 visits), but I believe can keep this one close, if not pull the outright upset. 10* Philadelphia

8* Over 76ers/Raptors (7:05 ET): This would be a new series low in terms of the O/U line, which means value from where I sit. Consider that the O/U line for Game 1 closed at 223 points, a double digit difference from where we are now for Game 7. It's pretty rare to see something like that take place. Now the first four games of the series did all stay Under, hence the drop from the oddsmakers. But the last two games did (just barely) squeak Over and those were several points higher than this one. Philadelphia may be a better offensive team at home, but this number is too low. Take the Over. 

You have to figure we'll see better shooting from Toronto here than what we saw in Game 6 in Philly. As has been the case in every Raptors loss in the series, Kawhi Leonard got little help from his teammates Thursday night. Only Pascal Siakam had more than 13 points (with the exception of Leonard). The team shot 43.2% overall and just 25% from three-point range. At home, they are averaging 114.3 PPG on the year w/ much better shooting numbers. The last time here in Toronto, the Raptors dropped 125 points, a series high. Philadelphia allows 114.2 PPG for the season on the road. 

I think a big key to this Game 7 will be the fact that Sixers' big man Joel Embiid appears to be healthy again. He had 17 points and 12 rebounds in the team's Game 6 victory. Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler led the way w/ 25 points, eight rebounds and six assists. The Sixers didn't shoot all that well in the 112-101 victory. But we know they'll be a lot better here than they were in Game 5. This is poised to be the lowest total for any 76ers game all season. Their games average more than 226 PPG overall while Toronto's aren't too far behind at 220.3. 8* Over 76ers/Raptors

10* Under Angels/Orioles (1:05 ET): It may seem a bit odd to go w/ the Under on an Orioles game. After all, they've given up - by far - the highest number of runs in all of baseball. However, today is the rare time that they'll send a competent starter to the hill. That would be John Means, who easily has the best overall numbers in the Baltimore rotation. Means has pitched five times thus far and has a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. No other rotation regular has an ERA lower than 4.25 or a WHIP lower than 1.30. So you could say we've got the "means" for a Baltimore Under here.

It's not like the Baltimore bats have done much recently either. They've scored three runs or fewer in five of the last seven games, including both so far in this series. They lost 8-3 on Friday and then 7-2 Saturday. Their only runs yesterday came in the first inning. At least they had more hits (9) than nearly the previous two days combined (10). But they figure to struggle again today facing Griffin Canning, an Angels rookie that's looked good in two previous turns. Canning earned his first big league victory his last time out, going 5 1/3 innings and allowing just two runs on four hits. He has 13 strikeouts in his two starts and the first saw him give up only three runs.

Means is also a rookie. He's allowed exactly one run in four of his five starts. The lone exception came when he faced the White Sox for a second straight time. But Means is off his best performance yet as he held Boston to one run on three hits, across seven innings, and the Orioles actually got the win, 4-1. The last four times Means has taken the mound, the Under has hit. Baltimore has yet to score more than four runs in any of his starts. They don't project to here as Angels' pitching has allowed three runs or less in four of the last five games. The Under is 34-16-3 the L53 times LA has faced a southpaw starter, including 10-3 L13 on the road. 10* Under Angels/Orioles

10* Under Blazers/Nuggets (3:30 ET): It's all come down to this for Portland and Denver, a Game 7. For the Nuggets this is their second Game 7 of the playoffs. They won in the 1st round, also here at home, beating San Antonio by a score of 90-86. While I was quite content to cash my Under bet in that game, the final score was very misleading as the Nuggets were up big most of the way (led by as many as 17) and never trailed. Things figure to be a bit more challenging here, even though the core of this Portland team has never been in a Game 7 before. Once again though, I'll be on the Under as the Nuggets host a Game 7.

Now, I do realize that I'm bucking a pretty substantial season-long trend here. Unlike w/ the Spurs, the Over has hit almost every time Denver has played Portland this season. In 10 meetings, the Over has gone 9-1. That includes 5-1 in this series, the lone exception being Game 2 here in Denver, which went way Under as the Blazers pulled a 97-90 upset as four-point underdogs. I believe we'll see a game like that on Sunday, given the stakes. It is a little surprising to see the oddsmaker stay so consistent w/ what appears to be low O/U lines in this series. But the Nuggets are 27th in pace of play.

We also know that the Nuggets play much better defense here at home than on the road. In four of the last five home games, they've held the opponent - either San Antonio or Portland - under 100 points. That includes a 124-98 victory in Game 5. Only one time in the playoffs, Game 1 of this series, have they allowed more than 105 pts at home. For the season, they allow only 102.9 PPG at home, a far cry from the 111.0 PPG they allow on the road. As for Portland, they allow only 1 more PPG on the road compared to at home while their own scoring average drops 7.6 PPG. 10* Under Blazers/Nuggets

6* Puck Line Carolina (3:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Hurricanes +1.5. Carolina is a team that has been kind to me in the past in these playoffs and if there's one key indicator of their "surprising" success, it would be Corsi For %, a metric that takes into account how much time a team is possessing the puck compared to its opponent. The Hurricanes were #1 in the league in this department during the regular season. Game 1 got away from them late here in Boston. I say they'll do no worse than a one-goal loss here. 

Game 1 was a 5-2 loss for the 'Canes, but note they actually led going into the third period, 2-1. The Bruins struck for four goals in the third period, a shocking output considering they allowed all of five goals total in the Islanders series (a 4-game sweep). The loss also snapped a 6-game win streak for Carolina, a streak which had seen them give up only nine goals total. After falling down 0-2 in the 1st round series to Washington, Carolina has won 8 of 10 and only once allowed more than three goals in a game before Game 1 of this series. They have gone a perfect 4-0 after the L4 times they allowed 5+ goals in a game. 

Boston has now won four straight and seven of its last nine games. Note that Game 1 turned w/ the Bruins scoring on back to back power plays, just 28 seconds apart. Note the Bruins' 4th goal came on an empty net. Petr Mrazek was back in goal for Carolina and made 23 saves and I don't think showed any ill-effects from the injury suffered in Game 2 against the Islanders. The Hurricanes outshot the Bruins in Game 1, nothing new for them as they led the league in shot per game differential in the regular season. Take the +1.5. 6* Puck Line Carolina (+1.5)

10* Over Blues/Sharks (8:05 ET): Home ice advantage figures to be vital in this year's Western Conference Finals between St. Louis and San Jose. After all, the home team has won the last five times these teams have played. Both teams also just won Game 7's at their respective rinks. I won with both in those winner take all spots, but now it's a new series where we are starting from scratch. Something I've stressed in previous analysis - as it pertains to the Sharks' home ice advantage - is how their goals per game average rises pretty dramatically when at home. Because of that, I'm on the Over in Game 1.

For the record, San Jose averages 3.7 goals per game at home. The Over is 29-18-2 in all Sharks' home games and overall they were one of the top Over teams during the regular season. So even though the stakes are now as high as they've been all year - and St. Louis can be an excellent defensive team - an Game 1 going Over would be far from "out of the ordinary." Now, all three regular season meetings w/ the Blues did stay Under. The teams exchanged 4-0 shutouts, each winning on home ice, and then San Jose won the rubber match - in overtime - 3-2 on March 9th. But those first two games showed both teams are more than capable of scoring on the other.

You'd actually have to go all the way back to the last time these teams met in the playoffs - May of '16 - to find the last matchup that produced an Over. Since then, it's been six Unders and three pushes in nine overall meetings. That said, the Over remains 10-2 in the Sharks' last 12 home games and those two Unders came in the last two games in the last series w/ Colorado. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Blues' last five road games. 10* Over Blues/Sharks

8* Luana Carolina (6:00 ET): This is a three round women's fight at flyweight (125 lbs). The fight takes place as part of the "early prelims," available only on UFC's Fight Pass. Whether or not you are able to watch this one, rest assured it's a solid investment. While still somewhat untested, Carolina has drawn an easy foe here, one whose aggressive nature often makes for an entertaining fight, but also more often than not ends in defeat. Look for Carolina to take advantage and improve to 6-1 in her MMA career.

Priscila Cachoeira, like Carolina, is Brazilian born. So there will be no "home field advantage" here. However, in terms of the question of "momentum" (still a word I hate!), there's no denying which woman has it coming into this fight. Cachoeira is off B2B losses, one of them a terrible matchup w/ Valentina Shevchenko that ended in submission. The last time we saw her was March when she dropped a decision to Molly McCann. That was an exciting fight, but Cachoeira's poor defense is what cost her in the eyes of the judges. That should be a problem again here.

Carolina is stepping up to the "big time" here, fighting in front of a pay per view audience for the very first time. Her only previous fight under the UFC banner came as part of Dana White's Brazilian Contender Series back in August of last year. She won a unanimous decision for a fifth straight win. Her only career loss came via split decision in her very first professional fight. This is a total mismatch in my eyes with the up and coming Carolina looking to make a statement. 8* Luana Carolina

8* Toronto (3:07 ET): The Blue Jays got a much neeeded win Friday, beating the White Sox 4-3. That snapped a five-game losing streak, although this offense still has some issues it needs to figure out. They'd been held to just one run total in three games by Minnesota and have scored just 18 runs in May (9 games). But off the win yday, they've got a great shot at having a big game at the plate Saturday as they'll face Ivan Nova, who has been struggling badly of late and all season. Nova has a 7.04 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in seven starts, including a 8.10 ERA and 2.040 WHIP his L3. 

The White Sox have given up the third most runs in the American League w/ only horrendous Baltimore and slumping Seattle having given up more. But Seattle has also played four more games. The 5.6 rpg allowed by Chicago is second most in all of MLB (Baltimore). That Toronto only needed four runs to win yday is a good sign. I look for Marcus Stroman to pitch well today for the Jays as his 2-6 TSR is very misleading as it comes in spite of a 2.96 ERA on the year. He has a 2.22 ERA at home. He'll be facing a White Sox lineup that has been held to three runs or fewer in seven of its last eight games. 

I already ran through the ugly numbers for Nova, which were actually even worse before he turned in a shockingly good outing vs. Cleveland on Monday. He allowed just one run (scattering eight hits) in 7 IP. That was actually the third time this season Nova allowed only one run in a start. But the previous two follow-ups have not been good. They've seen him allow 13 runs in a total of just 8 2/3 innings. Take away two starts vs. Cleveland and Nova's numbers look real dire. The White Sox are just 5-15 in day games as well. 8* Toronto 

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Time for a little redemption for the Cubbies, who got embarrassed in a 7-0 loss to Milwaukee on Friday afternoon. It was just their 6th loss at Wrigley all season and came on the heels of an easy sweep over the lowly Marlins. Not just that; the Cubs had won 10 of 11 going into yday. So perhaps they were due for an "off-game," but it should be pointed out that it was a 1-0 game heading into the 7th yday, which is when Milwaukee began to exploit the Cubs' bullpen. The Brew Crew have now won 7 straight themselves, so this is a matchup of hot teams, but I'm siding with the home team today. 

Yesterday's result pulled the Brewers into a first place tie w/ the Cubs atop the NL Central. The Cubs are still percentage points up as they've actually played four fewer games. But despite the "tie," I don't think there's any denying as to which team has played "better" thus far. The Cubs have a +50 run differential on the year, tied for tops in the Senior Circuiit, while Milwaukee is only +9. To put the Brewers' run differential into perspective, it's just the fourth best in their own division w/ both St. Louis and Cincinnati (who is only 17-22!) better. No team has been any stingier on the runs allowed side of the ledger than the Cubs, who going into yday were allowing just 2.8 rpg and a .213 opponents batting average here at Wrigley. Both numbers are MLB bests. 

We've got two undefeated pitchers on the mound Saturday, so something will have to give. Cole Hamels is 3-0 in his seven starts for the Cubs w/ a 3.38 ERA and 1.102 WHIP. For Milwaukee, Zach Davies is 4-0 in his seven starts w/ a 1.56 ERA and 1.239 WHIP. While there looks to be no obvious discernible advantage in this matchup, Davies does have a 2-8 TSR his L10 vs. teams with a winning record. Coming off a bad loss is a good time to play these Cubs, who are 7-1 off their previous eight defeats. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Minnesota (2:10 ET): I'm playing the 1st game of this day-night doubleheader. The Twins, yes the Twins, have the best record in all of MLB at 24-12. They have won four straight, including a 6-0 shutout of the Tigers last night. This club very much looks "for real" as they've outscored their opponents by 50 runs this season, right on par w/ the other division leaders in the A.L. (Rays, Astros). They should have little difficulty continuing to win in this series against the hapless Tigers, who are 2nd worst in the American League w/ a -48 run differential due to an offense that not only did next to nothing yday, but is last in the league in runs scored. Detroit has been outscored 19-0 in its last two games. 

Minnesota is near the top of the A.L. in runs scored, but what's also surprising is they've given up the second fewest runs (only to Tampa Bay). Friday saw Jake Odorizzi extend his scoreless innings streak to 20 by going seven innings and giving up just one hit. For Game 1 today, it's Michael Pineda, who has definitely been the "weak link" (6.09 ERA, 1.529 WHIP) of the starting rotation thus far. But a matchup w/ a Tigers lineup that has been shutout an AL-high five times, including B2B games, is an ideal matchup. The Twins staff - get this - has pitched three shutouts in the last four games and allowed just one run in the previous series (swept Toronto).

The Twins' offense is also doing its job as they are 4th in MLB in HR's and well on their way to breaking the franchise record in that department. In Game 1, they'll face Spencer Turnbull, who has been a real nice surprise for the Detroit starting rotation. The Tigers are 3-0 in Turnbull's last three starts w/ him allowing just 2 ER in 18 IP. But, if I were him, I'd be worried about getting any support today. Detroit is averaging only 3.2 rpg on the road this season while visitors here at Target Field are averaging just 3.1 rpg. It won't take much to beat the Tigers here and the Twins are already 12-4 in day games. 8* Minnesota 

10* Cincinnati (10:15 ET): Last weekend saw these teams play four games in Cincinnati (series actually ended Monday). They split, each team winning twice, but it very easily could have been a sweep by the Reds. In their two losses, they blew big leads and saw the eventual game-winning runs scored in the final inning. One of them, they blew an eight-run advantage and lost 12-11 in 11 innings. The other, they blew a four-run 1st inning lead. The two victories, however, saw the Reds outscore the Giants 21-6. This weekend is a chance at redemption and I love Cincy in this spot. 

The Giants very nearly did it again yday as they erased a 7-0 deficit against the Rockies (on the road) and actually took the lead (8-7) going into the bottom half of the sixth. But it was not to be as this time they came out on the wrong end of a 12-11 decision. That was the fifth time the Giants have allowed 10 or more runs in the L10 games. I don't like tonight's starter very much either as Dereck Rodriguez has been pretty awful of late w/ a 9.22 ERA and 1.975 WHIP his L3 starts. The last one was against Cincinnati and he gave up 4 HR's and eight runs total in a 9-2 loss. 

The Reds look to have a sizable edge in starting pitching tonight as Luis Castillo goes for them. Castillo has a 1.97 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in his eight starts this season. His last one, which was against the Giants, was the first time all year he allowed more than 2 ER. I expect him to be better the second time around. Cincinnati won in shutout fashion yday in Oakland (3-0) and this is a much better team than the overall record (16-22) indicates as they've actually outscored opponents by 23 runs over the course of the season, the 5th best differential in the National League. The Giants have a -29 run differential despite having one less loss than the Reds! (Same number of wins). The Reds are the much better team here. 10* Cincinnati

8* Over Braves/D'backs (9:40 ET): Last night's series opener was a low-scoring affair w/ Arizona prevailing 3-2. The game went 10 innings w/ the home team walking off on a Ketel Marte single. Quite honestly, the D'backs were pretty fortunate to even be in that position as they'd tied the game w/ a two-out HR in the bottom of the ninth. As low scoring as Thursday's game was, I expect plenty of fireworks tonight at Chase Field. Arizona does have Zack Greinke on the mound while Atlanta goes w/ Julio Teheran, but this total is too low. Take the Over. 

After a rough initial outing, Greinke has really turned things around. He is 3-0 w/ a 1.35 ERA in his last four starts and has allowed 3 ER or fewer his last seven times out. He gave up three runs (in six innings) to Colorado last weekend, but the team still ended up losing that game 8-7. That snapped a three-game Under run in Greinke starts, but note that the first four of 2019 all went Over thanks to the bullpen giving up additional runs. The Over is 5-1 in Greinke's last six home starts. It's also 6-2 the last eight times he's started w/ exactly four days rest. 

Speaking of bullpen, Arizona has had its way w/ Atlanta's so far this year in taking all four head to head matchups. It was a 3-0 sweep out in Atlanta last month as that series saw the D'backs score 11 runs against Braves relievers in just 10 innings. They also pounded out 14 hits. Starting tonight for Atlanta will be Julio Teheran, who leads the staff w/ 20 walks. Teheran hasn't pitched all that well this season and has a 5.74 ERA and 1.387 WHIP on the road. Keep in mind that includes him throwing six shutout innings at Miami (worst team in baseball) his last time out. So the numbers away from home were obviously much worse before then. The Over is 4-0 the L4 times Atlanta has been off a game where it scored two runs or less. 8* Over Braves/D'backs

10* Over Warriors/Rockets (9:05 ET): In the wake of the Kevin Durant injury, oddsmakers set a very low total for Game 6 and I think it's pretty obvious that the number was set too low. Compared to previous O/U lines, we're looking at anywhere from a five to double digit point drop. That's a bigger adjustment than what we've seen w/ the game line as Houston is now prohibitively favored to make this a seven game series. Let's not forget about all the other options Golden State has offensively as well as how much Houston is capable of scoring. I see a ton of value in the Over tonight. 

Durant was leading the league in points per game (34.2) in the playoffs, so he'll definitely be missed. (If the Warriors do end up advancing, the team sounds fairly confident about an eventual Durant return). But with him out for at least the next two games, I expect everyone else on the roster to step up. Remember this is a team that won 72 regular season games and a NBA title (not the same seasons) w/o Durant. Steph Curry is a former league MVP and despite a low field goal percentage, still scored 25 points in the last game. Klay Thompson had 27. As per usual, the Dubs were #1 in the league in offensive efficiency in the regular season. They average 117.7 PPG for the year. They'll find ways to score here. 

Houston has seen its games be lower scoring than usual in the playoffs, but remember they played Utah in the first round. This series has seen an average of 219.6 total points per game scored. The Rockets were held under 100 (99) in Game 5, but average 116.7 PPG for the year at home. They shot only 41.8% on Wednesday and we should see dramatic improvement in that department tonight. In the two previous home games in the series, they scored 126 and 112 points. Remember that the Warriors really fell off defensively this season, ranking only 10th in efficiency. The Rockets were right behind them in offensive efficiency in the regular season, finishing 2nd. 10* Over Warriors/Rockets 

7* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies blew all of a seven-run lead Thursday afternoon, but still found a way to come back and beat the Giants 12-11. In my opinion, that sets them up well for tonight's opener w/ the Padres. Granted, giving up 25 runs in two games to the Giants wasn't a good sign. But the offense has also turned it around, scoring at least eight runs in five of the last seven games. They'll have German Marquez on the hill tonight and they are 6-2 in his starts so far. Colorado is 2-0 against San Diego in 2019, having easily taken a pair of games at Petco Park last month. 

Though like most pitchers he's struggled here at Coors Field, Marquez still has solid numbers in his eight starts this season. I already mentioned that six of them have resulted in Rockies' victories. Neither of the last two have been great, but I had him his last time out and that was an 8-7 win over Arizona where Marquez matched a season-high w/ nine strikeouts. Remember that last season saw Marquez set a team record w/ 230 K's. He has a 1.077 WHIP and has been durable, going 6+ innings in all but two starts. In two career home starts vs. San Diego, he's allowed a total of just three runs. 

Surprising is that the Rockies have a losing record at home so far (7-10). Equally as surprising is the Padres' winning road record (11-6). But I expect neither to last. The Padres just took two of three from the Mets, at home, but this series promises to be a lot more challenging. Starter Eric Lauer has been somewhat inconsistent and has only made it through a full six innings twice (never gone more than 6 IP in any start). Lauer's only previous start here at Coors Field was his big league debut (April of last year) and it didn't go well as he allowed seven runs in just three innings. With a 5.40 road ERA, he's up against it here against the surging Rockies lineup. 7* Colorado

6* Boston (7:05 ET): I certainly don't need much "pushing" to fade a Seattle team that I believe will continue to regress severely over the final three-quarters of the season. But the oddsmakers are all but telling you that this is an ideal spot to fade. The Mariners have won just seven times in their last 25 games as the regression I expected has already begun to take hold. Simply put, this team was a complete fraud last year in winning 89 games. They were actually outscored by 34 runs, a scoring differential more indicative of a 77-win team. No team overperformed more (in terms of run differential) last season. So you can imagine my shock when they began 2019 at 13-2. 

The key for Seattle these last two years has been a ridiculously fortunate 17-1 record in games decided in extra innings. But that can only help them so much and over time that record will regress back to .500. The Mariners' offense started the year like gangbusters, but like the team has begun to fade. They scored only one run in yday's loss to the Yankees, which was the 6th time in the last 14 games they've been held to 1 or 0 runs. Another disadvantage they face coming into this game is that they had to play yesterday. Boston had Thursday off as they visited the White House (to celebrate LY's World Series win).

The Red Sox are starting to look like the Red Sox again w/ wins in 13 of the last 19 games. They are back at .500 and poised to make it a three-team race (w/ the Rays & Yankees) in the AL East. I know Eduardo Rodriguez's overall numbers are not that impressive, but Friday's starter for Boston has pitched very well this season at Fenway Park where he has a 3-0 TSR and 0.98 WHIP. Seattle is just 3-7 this season vs. left-handed starters. They'll go w/ righty Erik Swanson tonight. Swanson has had two good starts (both vs. Cleveland), but the other two have not gone well. This series is going to go a lot differently than when the Red Sox dropped three of four to open the year in Seattle. The price is high, but I love the home team here. 6* Boston

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): I played the Over in last night's Dodgers game and (as projected) they went Over the number themselves by hanging nine runs on the board for a second consecutive game. In the analysis, I spoke of just how dominant Dodger Blue has been here at Chavez Ravine this season. They are outscoring their visitors by nearly a 2:1 margin, averaging 6.3 rpg themselves while allowing only 3.6. Last night's 9-4 win over the Braves made it three straight sweeps here at home for the Dodgers and 10 straight home victories overall. The last time they lost a home game was April 14th! Add another win to the pile tonight.

As impressed as I am w/ the Dodgers so far this season, I'm equally as disappointed w/ the Nationals. They've lost four in a row overall and just got swept in Milwaukee. Maybe they are going to miss Bryce Harper after all as they've been held to three runs or fewer in 9 of the last 10 games. They've scored only seven runs total during the four-game losing streak. The Nats are now eight games under .500 overall and are dead last in baseball in net units at -14.3.

The Dodgers also look to have a significant edge on the mound tonight as Rich Hill goes against Pat Corbin. The Dodgers have won both Hill starts, even though he's allowed 2 HR's in both. Still he has a better ERA and WHIP than Corbin, who has struggled some recently. Injuries have really decimated this Nationals lineup, resulting in them losing six consecutive series. This one doesn't figure to go any better for them. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Raptors completely annihilated the 76ers in Game 5, winning by 36 points, thus setting up a situation where they need just one more win to advance. I took Toronto in both Games 4 and 5, feeling they were pretty clearly the better team here, and will take them again here to finish off Philadelphia's season. While the Sixers are obviously a stronger team here at home, the spread is now basically a non-factor w/ Toronto being on the road. Also, the Raptors have really owned this Atlantic Division rivalry through the years, winning 24 of the last 29 meetings. Lay the short number here. 

Fortunately, to make up for Philadelphia's likely large increase in offense from the last game, Toronto can score too. Especially when the ball is in Kawhi Leonard's hands. In this series, Leonard is averaging 34.6 points to go along w/ 9.8 rebounds per game. He's shooting at an incredible 58.3% clip. Keep in mind that Game 5 was the first time in the series Leonard did NOT score at least 33 points. He didn't have to though as his teammates shot 50% from the field. Remember that the Raptors are a top six team in offensive efficiency and average 113.4 PPG. 

The defense Toronto has played, not just in this series, but the entire playoffs has been pretty remarkable. They are giving up just 95.0 PPG and have allowed fewer than 100 pts in all but two games. One of the two where they failed to hold the opponent under 100 was Game 3 here in Philly, their worst defensive effort of the entire postseason. But other than that one game, the highest field goal percentage allowed was 42.0! Opponents are barely shooting 40% against them in the playoffs. I thought Philly was a pretty weak 3-seed coming into the playoffs (were actually 5th in point differential in the East) and the Raptors are just better. The series ends tonight. 8* Toronto

10* Over Raptors/76ers (8:05 ET): These teams finally went Over in Game 5, the first Over of the series. Game 5 was also a complete and utter beatdown by the Raptors, who won by 36 points to put the Sixers on the brink of elimination. While Toronto has defended exceptionally well in the postseason (only 95 PPG allowed), stopping Philadelphia in this game will likely prove a little more difficult given it's in the City of Brotherly Love where the Sixers average a healthy 118.0 PPG. Back in Game 3, they scored 116 pts and shot 51.2% from the field, which is the only time in the playoffs a Toronto opponent shot better than 42.0 percent. Take the Over here.

Fortunately, to make up for Philadelphia's likely large increase in offense from the last game, Toronto can score too. Especially when the ball is in Kawhi Leonard's hands. In this series, Leonard is averaging 34.6 points to go along w/ 9.8 rebounds per game. He's shooting at an incredible 58.3% clip. Keep in mind that Game 5 was the first time in the series Leonard did NOT score at least 33 points. He didn't have to though as his teammates shot 50% from the field. Remember that the Raptors are a top six team in offensive efficiency and average 113.4 PPG.

Philadelphia was right behind Toronto in offensive efficiency in the regular season, ranking 7th overall. The large jump we see from them in terms of scoring at home is the key here. While they have been held below their season average in four of the five games overall in the series, they scored only 95, 94 and 89 in Toronto. For the year, they average just 111.3 PPG on the road. As stated above, that number jumps all the way to 118.0 at home. There's no way we won't see drastic offensive improvement from the last game where the starting five combined for only 60 points. The Over is 6-2 in the 76ers' last eight games following a SU loss and 9-3 the last 12 times they have been off an ATS loss. 10* Over Raptors/76ers

10* Under Hurricanes/Bruins (8:05 ET): Given the importance I place on Corsi For %, it's no shock to me that Carolina has made the Conference Finals as they rank #1 in that key metric, which is a measure of puck possession. The 'Canes had a huge advantage in Corsi For % over their last opponent, the Islanders, so (again) it wasn't all that surprising to see them sweep that second round series. Since falling down 0-2 in Rd 1 to Washington, the Hurricanes have won 8 of 9 overall (including 6 straight). But the Bruins should prove to be their toughest opponent yet and I'm not yet willing to back Carolina on the road. 

Boston went the full seven games in Round 1 in order to oust Toronto. They needed only six to eliminate Columbus in Round 2. The Bruins are 6th in Corsi For %. They come into the Conference Finals on a three-game win streak. It was a 3-0 shutout in the series clincher (Monday) as they've done an outstanding job this postseason at stopping their opponents from scoring. Since losing 4-1 in Game 1 of the Toronto series, the Bruins have given up more than three goals only one time in the last 12 games. Goaltender Tuukka Rask has been playing out of his mind w/ a .955 even strength save percentage the L4 games.

That's really not new for Rask and Boston as they were tied for 3rd in the regular season in fewest goals allowed. As for Carolina, they allowed just five goals - total - in the entire series w/ the Islanders. Something to monitor here is the only "rest vs. rust" debate as the Hurricanes have not played in almost a week. My view is that time off is more likely to adversely effect their play at the offensive end. There's some debate as to whom will start between the pipes here, but both Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney have proven to be fine goaltenders. Both teams are top six in the league in fewest shots allowed. 10* Under Hurricanes/Bruins

10* Over Braves/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers went Over the total all by themselves last night, beating the Braves 9-0. Perhaps it will have to be more of the same this evening with Clayton Kershaw pitching. The Dodgers certainly have the offense to do so, as they showed last night, and they now average a healthy 6.3 runs per game here at Chavez Ravine. That's the highest average in the entire National League. They really are dominating here at home, outscoring opponents by almost three full runs per game. But, for what it's worth, Atlanta is also averaging 5.1 rpg on the road. Take the Over.

Kershaw has allowed at least one HR in three of his four starts this season. He gave up two his last time out, but only three runs total as the Dodgers beat the Padres 4-3. But the number of home runs allowed is something worth monitoring. The Braves did homer here twice on Monday and had hit six in their four games previous to being shutout yday. Last night was their first time being shutout all year and while they've managed only nine hits total in the two games in this series, I do expect them to find some offense tonight. 

The Braves are likely to give up their fair share of runs here as well. In addition to scoring 5.1 rpg on the road this season, they are giving up that same number. So is it any wonder that the Over is now 10-5-1 when they take the field away from home. Mike Foltynewicz will make his third start after his season debut was delayed due to injury. The team has lost both times he's taken the mound so far and Foltynewicz has allowed 10 runs in 10 2/3 IP. Last time out, he gave up six. Four were unearned, but the Braves still lost 11-2 to the Padres. Given what the home team has been able to do offensively here at Dodgers Stadium, expect a somewhat similar score tonight. 10* Over Braves/Dodgers 

10* San Jose (9:05 ET): It wasn't until Game 5 of this series that I made a play on either side (did win w/ the Under in Game 4). I took San Jose, here at home, and they came through for me then as last week's top moneyline selection in NHL. I then called for them to close out the series in Game 6 Monday, but that proved to be a mistake as they lost in overtime, thus keeping alive the pattern that has seen the team alternate wins throughout the first six games. San Jose won a Game 7 in the first round, beating Vegas, and my view that the Sharks are the better team here hasn't changed. 

That previous Game 7 victory (over Vegas) was here at home and in my analysis for Game 5, I spoke of how important home ice advantage has been to the Sharks this season. The most obvious benefit has come in scoring as they average 3.7 goals per game at home. Now it was a low-scoring Game 5 (won 2-1), but the bottom line is that in seven home games this postseason, the Sharks have tallied 28 goals. Compare that to the six road games where they have managed only 12 goals (and been shutout twice). For the year, San Jose is 30-13-5 SU at home. Colorado has a losing road record (20-27 overall). 

Just like I have throughout the playoffs, I'll continue to cite Corsi For % as a key metric. It's a measure of how often a team controls the puck and in this regard, the Sharks are a far superior team to the Avs. They rank 3rd in the league in that metric while Colorado is only 17th, the only team remaining in the playoffs outside the top 10. The Avs are pretty fortunate to be 3-0 in overtime games this postseason. But I don't see them getting the job done here as they are averaging just 27 shots per game in the series. 10* San Jose

8* Boston (8:05 ET): What a disastrous three-game stretch this has been for the Celtics, particularly Kyrie Irving. Over those L3 games, Irving has shot the ball at a disastrous 31% clip (19 of 62). Those 43 misses are his most over a three-game stretch in the playoffs in Irving's entire career. Not surprisingly then, Boston has lost all three games. He's also seemingly alienating teammates in the process. I think most are of the opinion that the Celtics' season is all but over, but I'm seeing a lot of value in this pointspread. Remember that Boston won Game 1 here in Milwaukee. Take the points. 

It hasn't been only Irving struggling to make shots from the Boston side. His teammates have provided little in the way in relief. Game 4 saw the Celtics shoot 37.8% overall, including 9 of 41 from three-point range. On uncontested jumpers alone, the team shot 14 of 39. I refuse to believe that this team got this bad "overnight." Granted Milwaukee led the league in scoring during the regular season and was also #1 in defensive efficiency. But Boston was able to "expose" their flaws back in the 112-90, Game 1 win. There's no reason to believe they can't keep this one close. 

I have to admit that part of me was wanting to take the Celtics on the 1st Half line only. They actually led at halftime in both Games 3 and 4. All throughout the series, the 3rd quarter has been the deciding factor w/ the last three games seeing the Bucks +40 in that quarter. Maybe a road trip is what the Celtics need. They've covered six of their last seven road games. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS the L4 times they have been off a double digit home loss. There have been only two times all season that the Celtics have dropped four straight games. Again, I think they keep this one close. 8* Boston

10* Under Celtics/Bucks (8:05 ET): I had the Under in Game 1 and that was an easy winner (by 20 points). The next two games both went Over, but then it was back to the Under for Game 4 as the Bucks won 113-101. That result has the Celtics on the verge of elimination as Kyrie Irving and company continue to struggle to shoot the ball. Irving, in particular, has been pretty brutal the L3 games. It's been the worst three-game stretch for him in his playoff career as he's shot just 19 of 62 from the field. As a team, Boston has shot 37.8%, 43.2% and 39.5% the L3 games.

Milwaukee led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season, which is something I don't think a) they get enough credit for and b) most are even aware. So perhaps it shouldn't be too surprising that Boston has struggled offensively. But the bigger surprise has been Boston's defensive struggles. I know the Bucks led the league in scoring during the regular season, but the Celtics were also a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. The Bucks have averaged almost 120 PPG in taking the L3 games after being held to only 90 in the Game 1 loss. 

Expect Milwaukee's scoring to go down here in Game 5. If Boston has any hope of staying alive, the defense must improve. The first five playoff games saw them allow fewer than 100 pts four times. Granted, Indiana is not Milwaukee, but the Bucks have managed to shoot better than 44% in only one game in the series. I do expect Boston's shooting to improve some here, but Game 1 was their best shooting effort and that game stayed well Under the total. 10* Under Celtics/Bucks

8* St. Louis (1:10 ET): The Cardinals took a beating yday at the hands of the Phillies, losing 11-1. But this is a good spot for them to bounce back after that humiliation. Granted, things haven't been going too well for the Redbirds recently as they've dropped five of six and were swept over the weekend by the rival Cubs. But they also shut the Phillies out here on Monday, winning 6-0. The club remains 13-5 here at Busch Stadium and today's starter (Jack Flaherty) has been exceptional in his four home starts. I'm going w/ the home team to bounce back in a major way today!

Not that the Cardinals did much at the plate, but it was really one big inning from the Phillies that did them in last night. It was a six-run second inning, which St. Louis manager Mike Shildt called his team's "worst inning of the season." It included a grand slam from Bryce Harper, who is still only hitting .226. Don't expect anything like that to happen today against Flaherty, who is 3-0 in home starts w/ a 1.87 ERA and 0.833 WHIP. The Phillies will always hold a special place in Flaherty's heart as he beat them LY for his very 1st big league victory. He had 13 strikeouts in a 5-1 win. 

Homefield advantage can often be overrated, but not when these teams are involved. They sport the two largest gaps between home and road win percentages in all of baseball (w/ St. Louis 1st). Last night marked just the third win for the Phillies in their last nine tries here at Busch Stadium. Wednesday's starter Jerad Eickhoff has pitched only one time on the road in 2019 and it didn't go well w/ him allowing four runs in six innings. Granted, that was at Coors Field in Colorado, but Eickhoff didn't fare much better in his only career start here at Busch. The Phils are just 8-11 off a win this season. 8* St. Louis

8* Under Blazers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): These second round series have been far more competitive than what we saw in the first round w/ three of the four tied at 2-2. Count Portland-Denver among the three as the Nuggets turned in a "gutsy" Game 4 performance in Portland to even the series up. They made some key shots down the stretch for the 116-112 upset as three-point underdogs. Now we return to Denver and if history is any indication, the game is going to be close yet again. These teams have played eight times this season and none of the games have been decided by double digits. Half (four) of them have been decided by four points or less. 

Another trend is that the Over is 7-1. But that one Under occurred in the last game here in Denver, which Portland won 97-90 as four-point underdogs. I had the Under. The Blazers held the Nuggets to a 34.7 FG% in that game. Usually though, it's Denver that you can count on to play excellent defense at home. Their PPG allowed drops to 103.0 here at the Pepsi Center, which is well below what they are giving up on the road (110.8 PPG). What's interesting about Portland is their defensive numbers are basically identical on the road compared to at home. But they do score significantly less, averaging only 110.8 PPG on the road, compared to 118.1 PPG at home. 

Both teams shot really well in Game 1, but that hasn't been the case ever since, save for the closing minutes of Game 4. Denver has allowed fewer than 100 points in three of its last four home games. The defensive improvement we see w/ them at home can't be discounted here nor can the offensive decline on the road we see w/ Portland. Normally, that might lead one to play the Nuggets in this spot, but I'm leery of them, not just because of some mediocre regular season numbers, but also due to the fact they've shot poorly in two of the last three games and lack a true "go to" scorer. 8* Under Blazers/Nuggets

10* NY Mets (10:10 ET): I had the Under in last night's game, which was an easy call w/ a pitching matchup of deGrom vs. Paddack. Both starters delivered, especially Paddack, who had a career high 11 K's over 7 1/3 scoreless innings. The Mets were shutout, losing 4-0, and it was the sixth straight game scoring three runs or fewer. In those six games, they have scored just seven runs total, which is absolutely putrid. But the good news is they shouldn't need to put many on the board tonight as they have Noah Syndergaard starting. I'll go w/ the Mets to bounce back here. 

It's not like San Diego has a tremendous offense either. As I pointed out in yday's analysis, they are averaging just 3.3 runs per game at home. They got a dominant start from their best pitcher on Monday, but I wouldn't go expecting the same from Cal Quantrill on Tuesday, even though he gets to face the same Mets lineup. Quantrill is making just his second start of the season here. His first was OK, but far from overwhelming and the Padres lost the game 5-1. The Padres still have a losing record at home (9-10) and they are just 6-13 the L3 seasons when coming off a win via shutout. 

Syndergaard should be the difference in this one as the Mets aim to snap a four-game losing streak. It's hard to be any better than Syndergaard was his last time out as he went the distance in a CG shutout w/ 10K's and the Mets beat the Reds 1-0. In an added twist, Syndergaard provided the game's only run w/ a solo home run! Syndegaard had been struggling prior to that outing, but got to face a weak-hitting lineup as is the case tonight. I can't see the Padres beating both deGrom and Syndergaard in B2B days as top hitter Fernando Tatis Jr is still out of the lineup. 10* NY Mets

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues were the hottest team in the league during the second half of the season. It was a remarkable turnaround for a team that actually had the fewest number of points (in the entire league!) on January 2nd. But, spurred on by a coaching change and a rookie goaltender, they've gone 31-15 SU the L46 games. The rookie goaltender (Jordan Binnington) led the league in goals against average (1.89) during the regular season. One thing that has surprised me though in these playoffs is that St. Louis has lost four times on home ice. But they closed out the Winnipeg series here at the Enterprise Center and now have a chance to do the same against Dallas here in Game 7 of Round 2. History will repeat itself here. Take the Blues. 

While they have lost four times here at home in the playoffs, the Blues have been proverbial road warriors, going 5-1 SU away from home. That includes a Game 6 victory in Dallas that kept them alive. They didn't just win Sunday afternoon either, they dominated. It was 4-1 final. What makes the home ice thing perplexing is that the Blues were a very good home team in the regular season, winning 14 of their last 16 times here heading into the playoffs. Dallas has managed to win 4 of 6 games on the road this postseason, including the last two here in the Gateway City, but they had a losing road record in the regular season and were outscored in the process. 

I continue to cite Corsi For % as a key metric this time of year. For those unaware, it is a measure of how long a team possesses the puck compared to its opponent. The Blues rank 9th in Corsi For % while the Stars are just 24th, which is the lowest among all remaining playoff teams. Then there is the matter of scoring. Dallas was only 28th in the league in goals per game during the regular season and only averaged 2.24 goals per game on the road, one of only three teams below 2.4 gpg. The Blues are 6-1 SU after scoring 2 goals or less their previous game. 10* St. Louis 

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Raptors were able to seize the home court advantage back w/ a 101-96 win in Game 4, covering as a 2-point underdog. I was on them there, feeling this is the better team in the series. Obviously, I still feel that way and will now lay the points w/ them back at home. While Philadelphia did win Game 2, they had previously dropped 14 straight here "North of the Border" and are only 5-23 SU vs. Toronto since the start of the 2013-14 season. Back home, the Raptors should reassert themselves as they are 35-11 SU in all home games this season. 

Toronto has done a marvelous job defensively in the playoffs, allowing an average of just 95.7 points per game on 40.5% shooting. Only once have they given up more than 104 points or allowed better than 42.0% shooting and that was Game 3 in Philadelphia. Take that away and the defensive numbers from Toronto get even more impressive. Game 4 marked the third time in the series that they held the Sixers below 100 points. Kawhi Leonard is having a series for the ages here, averaging 38 points and nine rebounds per game. He is easily the best player on either team right now. 

Toronto getting back the homecourt advantage was huge. Philadelphia is just 23-22 SU on the road this year while being outscored in the process. I expect Leonard to get more "help" from his supporting cast here at home, including Kyle Lowry, who has struggled at times here in the postseason. Prior to winning Game 2, the Sixers had failed to cover five times in a row here in Toronto. They don't have the depth the Raptors do, which we saw in Game 4 w/ Joel Embiid playing sick. On the road, I expect the depth issue to be an even bigger factor. 10* Toronto

10* Under Mets/Padres (10:10 ET): Could it actually be possible that Jacob deGrom is NOT the better starter here? San Diego's Chris Paddack has been as good as advertised, leading the Padres to a 5-1 record in his six starts. Along the way, Paddack has posted a 1.91 ERA and 0.697 WHIP. He has allowed 1 or 0 runs in four of those starts w/ three being the most allowed in any of the six. Opponents are hitting just .126 against him. Incredibly, Mother Nature could intervene here, something that does not happen often in San Diego where there have been just three rainouts in 15 years. But rain is in the forecast Monday. I'll cross my fingers that we get this one in because I absolutely love the Under here. 

For a second straight season, deGrom has again been snakebit. True to form, he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball his last time out, but the Mets lost 1-0 to the Reds. In half of his six starts this season, deGrom has not allowed a single earned run. Now the other three haven't gone particularly well. But provided we get the game in, this one should go well. In six career starts vs. the Padres, deGrom has dominated w/ a 1.66 ERA. 

The Mets' offense hasn't only been putrid for deGrom. They've scored a total of just seven runs in the last five games. They come into this series riding a six-game Under streak. San Diego's offense is rarely good and they are averaging just 3.3 rpg at home this season. Their lineup won't include rookie slugger Fernando Tatis Jr tonight as he's still on the 10-day DL. The Mets have scored three runs or less in four of deGrom's six starts, including each of the last three. 10* Under Mets/Padres

10* San Jose (10:05 ET): I'm calling for the Sharks to end this series and move on to the Western Conference Finals where they'll await the winner of tomorrow night's Game 7 between Dallas and St. Louis. The Sharks delivered for me in Game 5 at home, beating the Avs 2-1 in a come from behind effort. They are now 6-2 SU vs. Colorado this season. Neither team has been able to win consecutive games in this series yet, but that changes here as the better team asserts itself. Though they did give up the game's first goal on Saturday, San Jose really dominated, outshooting the Avalanche 39-22. 

In my Game 5 analysis, I cited home ice advantage as a key reason to play San Jose. Game 6 is in Denver, but Corsi For % is a metric I like to focus on and in this key area, San Jose still has the advantage over Colorado. Corsi for % is a measure of how much time a team possesses the puck compared to its opponent and San Jose comes in ranked 3rd in the league. If you are skeptical of the metric, be aware that it foretold Columbus' history-making upset over Tampa Bay in Round 1 and Carolina ranks #1 in the league and we see how well they are doing right now. For the record, Colorado is just 17th in Corsi For %, which is third worst among the eight conference semifinalists.

San Jose lost all 20 games it failed to score more than two goals in the regular season. But the good news for them is that here in the playoffs, they've already won two such games. They've done a good job defensively in the series, holding Colorado to an average of 2.4 goals and 27.4 shots per game. They've outshot them in four straight games. The really good news is that the Sharks have won four straight times after being held to two games or less the previous game. The Avs have actually lost five of the last seven times they've been a ML home favorite of -150 or less. 10* San Jose 

10* Golden State (9:35 ET): All three games in this series have been decided by six points or less and Houston's 126-121 win in Game 3 went to overtime. I'm anticipating another close one tonight, but getting the Warriors off a loss and NOT having to lay points seems like quite the ideal combination. The Dubs are 8-1 ATS L9 on the road when seeking revenge. They are also 21-6 SU off a SU loss this season (4-0 ATS L4), winning by an average of 8.4 points per game. You have to figure Steph Curry will break out of his shooting slump sooner rather than later and tonight sounds like as good a time as any. Take the short number. 

Curry has not been good in this series so far, shooting just 18 of 52 overall and 8 of 32 from three-point range. He was just 7 of 23 in Game 3 and had an all-time low point when he missed a breakaway dunk w/ just 19.2 seconds left in overtime. But in spite of Curry's shooting woes (not to mention Klay Thompson's as well), Golden State still leads the best of seven series 2-1. That should have Houston quite scared. Of course, when you are as talent rich as the Warriors are, a Curry slump isn't necessarily a backbreaker. Kevin Durant continues to dominate this postseason, averaging 35.6 PPG on better than 51% overall shooting. 

 Houston obviously has James Harden, who had 41 points in Game 3. But unlike the Warriors, I'm not sure the Rockets can reliably count on multiple scoring options. They did get 30 points in Game 3 from Eric Gordon, his career playoff high. But I wouldn't go expecting a repeat of that tonight. Chris Paul hasn't had a great series by any means as he's yet to score 20 pts in any game. I expect Curry or Thompson (possibly both?!) to have a big Game 4 and for the Warriors to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Houston is 17-37-1 ATS after scoring 125+ pts their last game. 10* Golden State 

10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (7:05 ET): Though I like both totals quite a bit on Sunday, this is my "preferred" one, hence the 10* rating. Game 3 saw Denver get a taste of its own medicine, that being dealt a close loss. I've previously written at great length about the Nuggets extremely good fortune in close games this year. The regular season saw them go a perfect 7-0 SU in games decided by three points or less, which played a major role in them finishing 2nd in the Western Conference despite three teams below them having better YTD point differentials and four having better net efficiency ratings. Count Portland as one of the teams in that group.

It was a wild Game 3 that went 4 OT's. Because of that, the Over was forgone conclusion. But neither team shot the ball very well in the 140-137 final. In fact, it was the second straight game the Blazers shot below 43% from the field. They made just 12 of 42 three-pointers in the contest. Denver, who shot horribly in Game 2 (34.7 FG%) wasn't a whole lot better. The game was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation, so that was a bad break for Under bettors. Remember I had the Under in Game 2 and that was a 30+ pt winner as Portland won 97-90. 

Could the Blazers shoot significantly better tonight? It's certainly a possibility. But Damian Lillard has been pretty bad the last two games, making only three of 16 attempts from three-point range. That 4 OT game took out a lot of both teams, including Denver's best player (Nikola Jokic), who played 65 minutes. (Portland's leading scorer C.J. McCollum played 60). This game might not end up as low-scoring as Game 2, but the Blazers are 7-2-1 the L10 games after giving up 125+ pts the previous game. Denver is 4-0 Under the L4 times it has been coming off a 125+ pt game. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers 

6* Houston (4:10 ET): As the money line suggests, this should be another easy win for the Astros, who beat the Angels yday by a score of 14-2. The reason for this only being a two-game series is that it is taking place down in Mexico. At least the Angels didn't draw Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, but they do have to face the former on Sunday. Verlander, not surprisingly, has very good number as his ERA is 2.45 and his WHIP is 0.864 in six starts. Lately, he's been even better than usual as he's given up exactly one run in four consecutive outings. 

I have Houston finishing at the top of the American League this year and they're well on their way to doing that. They enter Sunday sporting a 19-14 record and +40 run differential. Only the Rays and Cubs (NL) have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this season. Now the offense has largely been "feast or famine" the the L5 games w/ 25 runs scored in the two wins and just four scored in the three losses. The Astros got shutout in Verlander's last start, a hard luck 1-0 decision to the Twins. But I see them as more likely to "feast" today facing Matt Harvey. 

The Angels came into this series off a three-game sweep of Toronto, but they are just 4-10 outside of LA this season and getting this series down in Mexico does them no favors at all. Over the L3 seasons, the team has gone 5-14 after allowing 10 or more runs the previous game. Away from home, the offense is averaging just 3.3 runs per game. They figure to struggle against Verlander, who they've fared poorly against in the past. Verlander has a 3.01 ERA w/ two shutouts in 25 career appearances vs. the Halos. Mike Trout is hitting just .139 against him. Harvey has been a bit better of late, but still has a 6.54 ERA in six starts. Houston wins big again in Monterrey. 6* Houston

8* Toronto (3:30 ET): Put up or shut up time here for the Raptors, who have lost two straight to the 76ers, including an embarrassing 116-95 loss here in Philly on Thursday. After allowing fewer than 100 pts in six straight games, Toronto was torched for 116 in Game 3. Not only was that the first time a Raptors' opponent shot better than 50% in these playoffs, it was the first time any opponent shot 42%! They should shore up the defensive issues here while at the same time improving their own offense rather dramatically. I'm laying the short number w/ what I still view as the better team.

The Raptors have scored only 89 and 95 pts the last two games, shooting 39% from the field. Kyle Lowry's already checkered postseason past is again coming into question as he was held to only 7 points (on 2 of 10 shooting) in Game 3. But as we've seen time after time, Lowry typically follows a poor playoff performance w/ a decent to good one. He was held to nine points in Game 1 (ironically, a Toronto win) and then scored 20 in Game 2 (ironically, a loss). So I expect Lowry to "help out" Kawhi Leonard a little more Sunday afternoon. Leonard has had a great series (37.6 PPG). So has Pascal Siakam (23.3 PPG). It's on Lowry to pull his weight too.

One would have to go back to March 22-24 to find the last time the Raptors lost B2B games. They have not been on a three-game losing streak since November and that was their lone losing streak of that length all season. Since then, they're 5-0 in this situation (off B2B losses). I felt the Raptors were the much better team in the regular season as Philly's YTD point differential (+2.9 per game) was pretty weak for a 3-seed. Toronto has a sizable edge defensively according to the numbers. You have to keep in mind that Thursday was the Raptors' 1st loss by more than seven points since March 11th. Since we flipped the calendar to 2019, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS off a DD loss. 8* Toronto

8* Over Raptors/Sixers (3:35 ET): Toronto has now seen 7 of its 8 playoff games go Under the total, including all three in this series. But Game 3 certainly seemed to be on an "Over trajectory" most of the way. But it wound up falling just a few points short due to a woeful 4th quarter effort from the Raptors where they scored just 14 points. Because of that, they ended up losing by 21 points and are now down 2-1 in the best of seven series. To get the home court advantage back, they'll need to win Game 4, which I like them to do. But I also like the game to go Over as well. 

This comes straight from the writeup on the side - "The Raptors have scored only 89 and 95 pts the last two games, shooting 39% from the field. Kyle Lowry's already checkered postseason past is again coming into question as he was held to only 7 points (on 2 of 10 shooting) in Game 3. But as we've seen time after time, Lowry typically follows a poor playoff performance w/ a decent to good one. He was held to nine points in Game 1 (ironically, a Toronto win) and then scored 20 in Game 2 (ironically, a loss). So I expect Lowry to "help out" Kawhi Leonard a little more Sunday afternoon. Leonard has had a great series (37.6 PPG). So has Pascal Siakam (23.3 PPG). It's on Lowry to pull his weight too." 

So I fully anticipate Toronto scoring more today. In fact, I'll project a series high in points scored here. Philadelphia still gives up 111.9 PPG for the year and was only 14th in efficiency during the regular season. At the same time, the Sixers were not only the first team to shoot above 50% against Toronto in these playoffs, they were the first team to shoot above 42% against them. They do average an impressive 118.5 PPG at home this season, so it's going to take a lot of points from the Raptors to beat them. Both teams are top 7 in offensive efficiency. The Over is still 7-3 the last 10 meetings here in the City of Brotherly Love. 8* Over Raptors/Sixers

10* St. Louis (3:05 ET): I had the Blues as the better team coming into the series, but after losing Game 5 at home, they are facing elimination on Sunday, down 3 games to 2. Making the challenge even more difficult is the fact they now have to win Game 6 in Dallas. But winning on the road has not been a problem for the Blues this postseason as the took all three games in Winnipeg back in Round 1, then split w/ the Stars here in Games 3 and 4. I haven't given up faith yet and will take the Blues to stay alive.

I'll continue to cite Corsi For % as the basis for me thinking St. Louis is the better team here. In this key metric, the Blues rank 9th in the league, which is vastly superior to Dallas, who are just 24th. For those unfamiliar, Corsi For % is a measure of how often a team possesses the puck compared to its opponent. The Stars were also just 28th in the league in scoring during the regular season, so I'm surprised to see that they have scored 15 times in the five games vs. St. Louis. They were the lowest scoring team among all playoff entrants. Yes, the Stars were 2nd in the regular season in goals allowed, but the Blues weren't far behind at 5th. 

Over the second half of the season, St. Louis was arguably the hottest team in the league. So I don't think they're ready to bow out just yet. Even after losing Games 4 & 5, they are still 30-15 SU in their last 45 games. Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington led the league in goals against average (1.89) during the regular season and was arguably the key reason the team was able to go from having the fewest # of points in the league on January 2nd to making the playoffs. The Blues are 6-1 the L7 times they've been priced as the underdog, so I'll take them again here. 10* St. Louis

10* Colorado (3:10 ET): Arizona continues to surprise as they've put 19 runs on the board in two games here at Coors Field and won both. Now 20-13 overall, the D'backs are one of four NL teams playing .600 ball w/ a YTD run differential of +30 or better. They go for the sweep of the Rockies Sunday afternoon and will have Zack Greinke on the bump, so the visitors are likely feeling pretty good about themselves right about now. But I wouldn't make the mistake of discounting Colorado in this spot, coming off a bad home loss. In fact, I think the moneyline speaks volumes here.

German Marquez will toe the rubber for the home team in this one. He's been a little shaky at Coors Field so far, but still has a 2.93 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in his seven starts this season. Those are actually better overall numbers than what Greinke brings to the table! Marquez also has a 5-2 TSR. Though the Rockies only managed two runs on five hits yday, I wouldn't make the mistake of second-guessing this lineup. The previous three games had seen them score 31 runs on 34 hits. They do need to do a better job of limiting their opponents' scoring here at home and I think Marquez will get the job done today.

Greinke started 2019 w/ a terrible effort against the Dodgers, but the team has won the last six times he's started. He's been especially dominant in the last four, all quality efforts, but this is Coors Field he's pitching at Sunday. Greinke only had to pitch once here LY and gave up multiple home runs. It's pretty common knowledge at this point that Greinke has always pitched better at home, no matter what jersey he's been wearing. The last three times he's pitched here in Denver, he's faced off w/ Marquez every time. Arizona has won 2 of the 3, but this time it's the Rockies' turn as they are going to be highly motivated here not to get swept by a division rival at home. 10* Colorado

8* Bayer Leverkusen (12:00 ET): This sets up as a key game as far as finishing in the top four goes. Eintracht Frankfurt currently holds the fourth position in the table w/ 54 points, but Bayer Leverkusen is right behind in 6th w/ 51 points. The top three teams have really separated themselves. Despite being two spots lower in the table, Bayer Leverkusen actually has one more win than Eintracht Frankfurt (16 to 15). They just happen to have five more losses (also have fewest # of draws). At home, I like Bayer to make a statement Sunday. 

The fact Frankfurt is in the position it's in is a story unto itself. There was a time where this club seemed more likely to be destined for relegation than the Europa League Final. Speaking of the Europa League, this match comes smack dab in the middle of Frankfurt's two semifinal legs vs. Chelsea, so Bundesliga play (against a hungry team) really couldn't come at a worse time for them right now. They just drew Chelsea 1-1 on Thursday, giving the opposition a leg up because it managed to score an away goal. Now its back to league play where they've collected only two points in the L3 fixtures. 

There are no such distractions here for Bayer Leverkusen, only three league matches left to try and get into the top four or preserve their current status in the top six. Die Werkself is in fine form right now having won its last three matches while conceding only once. They found the back of the net four times against FC Augsburg on April 26th and have been off since, so they're definitely fresher coming into Sunday. This is just a terrible spot for Eintracht being sandwiched in between the two matches w/ Chelsea that will determine one of the Europa League finalists. For Bayer Leverkusen, the total focus is on the table and being victorious on Sunday. They'll do so. 8* Bayer Leverkusen

10* San Jose (10:05 ET): Similar to the St. Louis-Dallas series, I view one of the teams (San Jose) as vastly superior in this series. But after mainly concentrating on the Under here (cashed it in Game 4), I'm finally ready to play on the Sharks. The series is now tied at two games apiece after the Avs won Game 4 by a score of 3-0. But if the regular season and playoffs have taught us anything, it's that we should expect more scoring from the Sharks here in San Jose. They average 3.7 goals per game on home ice and given they are still 5-2 this season vs. the Avs, I like them in this spot quite a bit. 

Corsi For % is a metric I like to focus on and in this key area, San Jose has the advantage over Colorado. Corsi for % is a measure of how much time a team possesses the puck compared to its opponent and San Jose comes in ranked 3rd in the league. If you are skeptical of the metric, be aware that it foretold Columbus' history-making upset over Tampa Bay in Round 1 and Carolina ranks #1 in the league and we see how well they are doing right now. For the record, Colorado is just 17th in Corsi For %, which is third worst among the eight conference semifinalists. 

Home ice advantage is also crucial here w/ the Sharks getting two of the next three (if necessary) games here in San Jose. While the Sharks are a strong home team, Colorado has a losing road record. Another key trend is that San Jose is 38-18 SU following a loss by 3+ goals. While they have scored just nine goals in five road games so far in the playoffs (shut out twice), the Sharks have scored 26 goals in the six home games. In goal, I feel Martin Jones has outplayed Philip Grubauer in this series. That's backed up by the former having a slightly higher save percentage. Sharks win this critical Game 5. 10* San Jose

6* Merab Dvalishavili (10:05 ET): This is a three round fight at bantamweight (135 lbs). After suffering B2B losses to open his UFC career, Dvalishavili finally broke through w/ a win his last time out. It came via unanimous decision over Terrion Ware back in September. Quite frankly, his 1-2 UFC mark (8-4 overall) is a little misleading in the sense that he easily could be 3-0. One of the losses was by split decision. The other was a highly questionable submission call by the referee as the final gun sounded. 

Brad Katona is unbeaten (8-0) and won "The Ultimate Fighter" (Season 27), which wasn't exactly the strongest season of the reality show. Give him credit though as he deserved to win. He followed that up by winning another unanimous decision victory over Matthew Lopez in December. But with only eight professional fights under his belt and only three wins by stoppage (just one coming in the L6 fights), question marks still abound concerning "Superman." 

Look for Dvalishavili to control the pace of this fight. Katona's last opponent did an okay job of that at the outset, before eventually gassing. That won't happen w/ Dvalishavili. Katona's wrestling will not be enough by itself to defeat this particular opponent. Look for him to lose for the very first time as Dvalishavili's luck continues to turn for the better. 6* Merab Dvalishavili

10* Under Warriors/Rockets (8:35 ET): It's been two close games in this Western Conference Semifinal (both decided by 6 pts), but the bottom line is that Houston is still looking for its first win of the series. In addition they must deal w/ the fallout of James Harden's vision issues. Five minutes into Game 2, Harden was "inadvertantly" hit in the face by Draymond Green. It caused contusions in both eyes and a laceration on the inside of the left eyelid. Though he said he could "barely see" during Game 2, Harden still scored 29 pts on his best shooting night of the playoffs (9 of 19). He has said he's good to go for Game 3.

The Rockets were held to an average of 104.5 points in the two games in Oakland. Quite frankly, something has been "up" w/ their offense going back to the Utah series. The last five games have seen them average just 100.8 PPG on 41.3% shooting. That hardly sounds like "Rockets basketball." But on the bright side, their defense has also improved. They are allowing just 101.1 PPG in the playoffs and have held the Warriors under their season average in both games. Not only is the Under 19-7-1 in Houston's last 27 games overall, it is a perfect 7-0 when they are off an ATS loss. For the record, they failed to cover Game 2 (were 5.5-point underdogs).

Golden State has allowed more than 110 pts just twice in these playoffs. With the series moving to Houston, it is absolutely worth mentioning that Warriors' road games - on average - are lower scoring than their home games. Both their own scoring average and opponents' scoring average drops about a point. It's pretty rare to see a team give up fewer points on the road than at home. The Under is 10-3 in their last 13 games following an ATS win. The Under is also 9-2 the L11 meetings between these teams, surprising for sure, but it makes sense as most of those have been playoff games where the stakes are higher. 10* Under Warriors/Rockets 

6* Andrew Sanchez (9:05 ET): This is a three-round fight at 185 lbs (middleweight). Sanchez, the winner of "The Ultimate Fighter" Season 23, has a lot to prove here. When he won the show (at 205 lbs), "El Dirte" looked like a top prospect. But stamina has been an issue for him. 2017 saw him "gas" late in a pair of losses to Anthony Smith and Ryan Janes, both coming via third round stoppage.

The loss to Smith now looks excusable, but the one to Janes was a downright embarrassing effort for a once-hyped prospect. Fortunately, Sanchez did bounce back in his lone fight of 2018, a decision win over Markus Perez. At middleweight, Sanchez's cardio should be less of an issue and I see him grinding out a victory here.

Barriault is from Canada (Quebec), so he'll likely have the crowd on his side here. But he'll need it as this is his UFC debut. He fought well at a lower level, going 11-1 w/ the lone loss coming via split decision. He's on an eight fight win streak. but this is a big step in class for Barriault. It's also not a great matchup. When Sanchez is at his best, he's controlling his opponent w/ wrestling. Barriault's weakness happens to be defending wrestling. 6* Andrew Sanchez

10* Under Blue Jays/Rangers (8:05 ET): You can't get any lower scoring than Friday's series opener was here in Arlington. The Blue Jays won 1-0 and more impressive is that the game went 12 innings and the only run scored was unearned as it came on a throwing error. For the Rangers, it was the third time in five games, they held the opponent to just one run. But it was a far cry from the two times they did it to Seattle as they scored a combined 29 runs themselves in those games. There's a (very) good chance that this game won't be quite as low-scoring as last night, but I still have it going Under. 

Both starting pitchers were outstanding in last night's game. Toronto's Trent Thornton gave up only one hit in 7 IP. The Rangers' Mike Minor threw eight shutout innings while scattering seven hits. Really, the Blue Jays should have won by a lot more considering they had 11 hits to just four for Texas. But they were just 1 for 11 w/ RISP and left 12 men on base. That shouldn't come as a total shock considering the Jays are only hitting .228 as a team for the year. But they've been helped by the fact they are only allowing 3.8 runs per game w/ opponents' batting just .214 (tied for 2nd best in MLB).

Rangers' games - on average - are far more high scoring than those for the Blue Jays. Tonight's starting pitching matchup looks like it would be more of a "Texas style game," but the bottom line is that Toronto has scored only nine runs total in its last four games. Rangers' starter Lance Lynn has allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of his past five starts, including a gem his last time out where he held Seattle to one run in 7 IP (w/ 9 Ks). Toronto's Thomas Pannone has made only one previous start and while it was not good overall (allowed 4 runs in 2 2/3 IP), he did exit w/ six strikeouts. 10* Under Blue Jays/Rangers 

6* Cleveland (4:10 ET): The Indians would appear to have the Mariners' number this year as they're now a perfect 4-0 against them following last night's walkoff win. Seattle is in a terrible way right now having scored just eight runs during a five-game losing skid and five of those eight runs came in one game. Of course, I had been adamant that the Mariners were headed for a downfall following what I dubbed "an unsustainable start" (to the season). That downfall continues Saturday as they are big underdogs to Carlos Carrasco and the Indians. 

Coming into the season, Seattle was a team I'd earmarked for some serious regression. Last year's 89-win team was a total fraud as they were actually outscored by 34 runs, giving them a win expectancy of 77. No team had a larger gap between actual and expected wins in 2018. The key for them was not only a MLB-high 36 one-run victories, but going a ridiculous 14-1 in extra-inning games. That's luck, not skill. So you can imagine my shock when the Mariners raced out to a 13-2 start and homered in their first 25 games (MLB record). But, sure enough, they have started to regress. They're just 5-14 in the L19 games and have suffered three losses by 11+ runs in the last five games! The other two losses, including last night's, were by 1 run. So they are regressing in that department as well. Home runs have slowed WAY down w/ just five in the last nine games. 

Carrasco has a somewhat misleading ERA/WHIP as he's been very good at home. He's also gotten little in the way of run support w/ the Tribe scoring exactly one run in each of his L4 trips to the mound. He's only had one strong start on the road and it happened to come against Seattle, whom he shutout for seven innings (just three hits) w/ 12 K's. At home, Carrasco has a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The M's counter w/ Mike Leake, who was on the wrong end of a 15-1 decision his last time out. He gave up nine runs (five earned) in five innings. Leake's L2 starts have seen him allow 13 runs (in 11 IP) and 5 HR's.  6* Cleveland

10* St. Louis (9:35 ET): I came into this series believing that St. Louis was the better team. I had them in Game 3 - a wild 4-3 win at Dallas - that had them take a 2-1 series lead. But now things are tied up a two games apiece after Game 4, which was won by the Stars 4-2 on Wednesday. It may sound a little bit odd to think the Blues are definitely the better team here. After all, they have a losing record (3-5 SU) vs. Dallas this season. But I'll continue to cite their Corsi For %, which is vastly superior to Dallas. The Blues rank 9th in that key metric while the Stars are just 24th. 

St. Louis entered the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the Western Conference. Even after losing Game 4, they are still 30-14 SU in their last 44 games. Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington led the league in goals against average (1.89) during the regular season and was arguably the key reason the team was able to go from having the fewest # of points in the league on January 2nd to making the playoffs. Binnington hasn't exactly been at his best the L3 games, but the Blues have still won 75% of the time (30-10) when he's between the pipes, including a 16-5 SU mark at home. 

Dallas ranked just 28th in the league in goals per game during the regular season, so I'm definitely surprised that they've been able to find the back of the net 11 times in the last three games. They were the lowest scoring team entering the playoffs. While #2 in goals allowed, the Blues weren't far behind at #5. The Stars are just 19-39 SU their L58 games as a ML road underdog of +150 or less. I think this is a good price to fade them in what shapes up as the key game of this series. The Blues have won four straight times after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Seeing as I think they're the better team, I almost have to take them here. 10* St. Louis

8* Boston (8:05 ET): After a very impressive showing in Game 1 and a good start in Game 2, the Celtics pretty much "fell apart" in the second half Tuesday night in Milwaukee. They were outscored 39-18 in the third quarter and that was the difference in the game as they lost by 21, 123-102, as 7-pt underdogs. Fortunately for them, they already did what they needed to do and that was win one in Milwaukee. Now they return to Boston where they've gone 12-1 ATS their L13 playoffs games. This includes a 2-0 mark vs. Indiana in Round 1 where they allowed just 74 and 91 points.

Game 2 was easily Boston's worst defensive effort of these playoffs as they gave up 123 points. Before that, they hadn't allowed more than 106 in any playoff game and had allowed 96 pts or less in four of the five games. It was also a bad shooting night for the Celtics as they made only 39.5% of their field goal attempts. Given how well the "zig zag theory" (play on previous game's ATS loser) has worked out so far in the NBA playoffs, one should reasonably expect the Celtics to bounce back at home Friday night.

The Bucks are just 1-6 ATS their last seven trips to Boston. That includes 0-4 in LY's 1st round playoff series where the home team won every game straight up. Don't discount the experience factor (on Boston's side) that I spoke of previously. Aside from the third quarter of Game 2, the Celtics have largely outplayed the Bucks so far. I seriously doubt we'll see a repeat here of the Bucks' three-point shooting from Game 2 where they went 20 of 47 w/ Khris Middleton's 7 of 10 leading the charge. Middleton has 44 pts so far in the series, but on the road I expect him to struggle to find his shot. Lay the points. 8* Boston  

10* Under Twins/Yankees (7:10 ET): Right now, these are looking like two of the better teams in the American League. Minnesota has raced out to a 19-10 record and leads the Central by three games over reigning champ Cleveland. Despite injuries, the Yankees have been able to shake off some early season blues to go 17-13 and they actually have a better YTD run differential than the Twins (+34 vs. +29). Both have done a fairly decent job at limiting opponents' scoring and for tonight's series opener, we've got two starters in fine form. Take the Under here. 

Now Minnesota road games have been pretty high scoring to this point. They average 12.4 runs per game, which has them tied w/ Seattle for the highest average rpg on the road in all of baseball. But you have to figure that number is going to start to come down and facing the Yanks' James Paxton is probably a good place for that to start. Paxton has been downright filthy for NY this season, especially here at Yankee Stadium where he has a 0.46 ERA and 0.61 WHIP in three starts. In his last two outings here at home, he's pitched 14 scoreless innings w/ 24 Ks and just five hits allowed. Paxton has a 2.51 ERA in five career starts vs. the Twins. 

The Yankees' lineup couldn't do much in two games at Arizona, scoring a total of just three runs. That came on the heels of six straight Overs. But as already alluded to, this lineup has been besieged by injuries to key players such as Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. I'm not convinced that Luke Voit will be able to continue to carry the load. Twins' starter Kyle Gibson has a 0.818 WHIP his L3 starts, including seven strong innings his last time out where he allowed just one run on three hits. Granted, it was against lowly Baltimore, but the Yankees are only averaging 4.5 rpg at home this season. The Under is 4-1 the last five times Gibson has started w/ at least four days rest. 10* Under Twins/Yankees

10* Under Avalanche/Sharks (10:05 ET): Each of the last two games in this series, I've felt "ripped off" on an Under play. Game 2 was ridiculous. Four goals were scored in the final 10 minutes, the last two coming in the final 62 seconds of regulation. Then in Game 3, the "knife" was again stuck in late w/ San Jose tacking on an "insurance" goal w/ just 30 seconds left to make it a 4-2 win. Again, three goals were scored in the final 10 minutes of regulation. The Over has now hit in all six meetings between the teams this season. Enough is enough already. I'm playing the Under again.

In what has turned into a wide open Stanley Cup Playoffs (all 4 division champs from reg season eliminated in 1st round), the Sharks are now the betting favorite to hoist the Cup according to the oddsmakers. They're not an overwhelming favorite by any means, but being up 2-1 in this series definitely helps. They are now 5-1 vs. Colorado this season. While it may feel like "beating my head against the wall" when it comes to playing the Under here, it should be noted that the Under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. In three games in Vegas in Round 1, they were held to only five goals total. They don't score nearly as many goals per game on the road as they do at home.

The Avs have been held to just two goals in each loss so far in the series. Despite what happened in Game 3, the Under is still 4-1-1 the L6 times they have been favored to win on home ice. In Game 2, they certainly showed they are capable of slowing the Sharks down as they held them to just 1 goal for almost 55 minutes. In Game 3, they held them to two goals for nearly 52 minutes. Remember that in the Game 7 vs. Vegas, the Sharks were able to take advantage of a controversial power play (5 min major) by scoring four times. In baseball, we'd call this cluster luck. Whatever you want to call it, I feel that this game stays Under. 10* Under Avalanche/Sharks

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Toronto was definitely feeling pretty good about itself coming into this series as they'd just swept Oakland for a second time this season. But it's been a "step back" w/ consecutive losses to an Angels team that has won five out of its last six. This is the Halos' best stretch since a six-game win streak in early April that included a sweep of Milwaukee. Tonight, they go for just their second sweep of the season and I like their chances w/ Tyler Skaggs on the bump. Lay the price. 

Toronto has struggled this season at the plate. They are hitting just .219 in games against left-handed starters. Skaggs is a southpaw and brings in a 3.15 ERA after four previous starts. The only previous time Skaggs got to start at home was vs. Texas on 4.6. He allowed just one run and five hits in 6 1/3 IP. He was even stingier his last time out w/ five shutout innings of three-hit ball. Of course, when betting on or against the Angels, one must consider the prowess of perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout. So far, Trout has reached base safely in every game this season!

The Blue Jays hope they have the "next Trout" on their hands w/ Vlad Guerrero Jr. He's now been in the big leagues for almost a week and while there's no doubt he is a future superstar, Guerrero has struggled in this series. He's hitless in six at bats and has struck out three times. Pitching tonight for Toronto will be Aaron Sanchez, who continues to deal w/ recurring blister and figernail issues. This oddity has really stunted his growth as a starter as he often can not make his regular turn in the rotation. He was pulled early from his last start after breaking a fingernail. Another issues has been control. Sanchez has issued 15 walks in his L4 starts against only 16 K's. Trout and the rest of the Angels lineup will take advantage of that tonight. 8* LA Angels

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): I had the Raptors in Game 1. That was a good play. They won 108-95 as six-point chalk. I had the Over in Game 2. That was not a good play. It was a 94-89 final w/ the Sixers winning and thus "stealing" the home court advantage. I came into this series believing Toronto was decidedly the better team. But I laid off Monday (Game 2), thinking Philadelphia would be eager to rebound and end a 14-game losing streak "North of the Border." They did just that, led by Jimmy Butler's 30 points. But, off a loss, I love the Raptors in this price range. Take the visitors. 

Unlike the first two games, we no longer have to really worry about "laying points" w/ Toronto. A SU win basically equals an ATS win here. I'll go back to something I said in my Game 1 analysis and that's Philly profiles as a pretty weak 3-seed. They had a regular season point differential of just +2.9 PPG. That was only fifth in the Conference. Also, despite winning Game 2, history has not been on the Sixers side vs. the Raptors. Not only are they just 1-13 their L14 visits to Canada, they are 4-22 SU against them since the start of the 2013-14 season. Their only win in four regular season meetings this year came when Toronto was w/o Kawhi Leonard. 

Toronto's defense in the 1st round vs. Orlando really impressed me. They have kept it up in this series and have now allowed fewer than 100 pts in six straight games. They're giving up an average of just 92.7 PPG in the playoffs (on 39.0% shooting). There is a big gap between these teams defensively. Toronto's scoring drops very little on the road as they still average 113.2 PPG. They are 4-0 ATS off their previous four ATS losses. Look for the Raptors to regain control of this series. 10* Toronto

8* Over Raptors/Sixers: Toronto has now allowed 96 pts or fewer in six straight games and is giving up just 92.7 PPG (on 39.0 FG%) for the entire playoffs. But despite another sub-100 pt effort on the defensive end, there was a big difference between the last game and the previous five. The Raptors lost. They went down 94-89 as a 7.5-point home favorite and thus lost their home court edge in the series. Obviously, with all the outstanding efforts at the defensive end, it shouldn't be a surprise that the Under is now 6-1 in all of their playoff games. But whether or not they can continue to defend well, I see Game 3 going Over the total.

Philadelphia has scored just 95 and 94 points in the first two games of this series. This after averaging 127.5 PPG in their four wins over Brooklyn. Obviously, Toronto is alot better than the Nets, but that still shouldn't account for such a precipitous drop in scoring. Whatever the reason, the Sixers should be more difficult to defend tonight. They average 118.6 PPG at home, which is well up from their scoring average on the road. I know Toronto is allowing a field goal percentage of only 39.0 in the playoffs, but I have to believe Philly will shoot better than that tonight.

The Raptors were also pretty dreadful at the offensive end in Game 2. They shot 36.3% from the field. They had only 38 pts at halftime. Both of these are top seven teams in offensive efficiency. The Over is 6-2 in the Sixers' last eight home games and 7-2 the L9 meetings w/ Toronto here in Philly. Obviously, Game 2 went way Under, but that was w/ both teams shooting below 40%. Again, can't imagine that'll be the case here. Expect a dramatic increase in scoring for Game 3. In particular, I expect to see an increase in Toronto's three-point shooting percentage after they were just 10 of 37 on Monday. 8* Over Raptors/Sixers

8* Under Rockies/Brewers (1:10 ET): Colorado was able to break through w/ a win last night here in Milwaukee. They did so in emphatic fashion, prevailing by a score of 11-4. Beating the Brew Crew had been a real problem for the Rockies previously. They are just 3-10 vs. Milwaukee since the start of last year, most notably getting swept in LY's NLDS. (They were also 0-2 previously in this series). Scoring as many runs as they did yday on Milwaukee is even rarer. The Rocks scored just four runs the previous two games and had not topped five runs against the Brewers in their L11 tries! Remember, Dorothy, we're not in Coors Field anymore. Take the Under this afternoon. 

The Under has gone 9-3-1 those L13 meetings and is 13-5-2 the L20. As I just said, the first two games of this series (5-1 and 4-3 wins by Milwaukee) both stayed Under. Colorado is seeing its usual dip on the road offensively this season as they are hitting a collective .210. That's the 4th lowest team batting average on the road in all of baseball. In the first two games of the series, the Rockies had just eight hits. For yday, please note the Brewers had to make a late change w/ reliever Jacob Barnes starting in place of Chase Anderson, who was scratched due to a callus on his right middle finger. 

The Brew Crew may not be too confident in today's starter, Freddy Peralta, as his numbers this season are less than ideal. But was that because of injury? He's been on the DL since April 16th with a shoulder. Colorado may be the ideal opponent for Peralta to face right now as he's 2-0 w/ a 1.54 ERA against them. Earlier this year, Peralta did have an 11 strikeout game vs. the Reds where he gave up no runs (just two hits) in 8 IP. The Rockies go w/ Jon Gray here. Gray has been solid (as per usual) and won't have to deal w/ Christian Yelich, who is set to miss a 4th straight game due to a back injury. Before getting roughed up some in Atlanta last week, Gray had allowed 1 ER or less in three consecutive outings. 8* Under Rockies/Brewers

10* Portland (9:05 ET): I was a perfect 5-0 in Denver's 1st round series, but never once took the Nuggets. Now that perfect record did include three totals plays. But I also did fade the Nuggets twice, noting they didn't fit the typical profile of a #2 seed. Their regular season point differential was just 5th best in the Western Conference and their net efficiency rating was 6th. One of the teams with better numbers than them is Portland. Now, Game 1 obviously belonged to Denver, who won 121-113 as 4-point favorites. That was particularly impressive when you consider the Nuggets were 48 hrs removed from playing a Game 7. Portland had a five-day break.    

The Trail Blazers actually had a better overall FG% in Game 1 (51.9 to 50.6) and Damian Lillard led all players in scoring w/ 39 pts. But it was points off turnovers that were likely the biggest determining factor and Lillard was upstaged by Denver's Nikola Jokic as the game's most impactful player. Now back to the turnovers and the points scored off them. Whereas Portland was only able to convert 12 Denver turnovers into six points, Denver converted 18 Portland TO's into 23 points. That was the difference in the ballgame. 

While Denver is now 4-1 SU head to head vs. Portland in 2018-19, virtually all of the games have been close and were decided by single digits. In the regular season, they only outscored the Blazers by six points. Two of the wins were by three points or fewer. Winning close games have somewhat been the Nuggets' forte this season as they were a perfect 7-0 SU in the regular season in games decided by three points or less. Winning close games at that kind of rate is no skill, but rather good fortune. With Portland at 11-5 ATS off a SU loss and 14-6-1 ATS off an ATS loss, I'll back them to bounce back in Game 2. Take the points. 10* Portland

8* Under Blazers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): It was a misfire w/ the Under in Game 1, but I'll come back w/ it here for Game 2. Because Game 1 did go Over, we're getting a few extra points here Wednesday night, some nice added value. As I pointed out in my Game 1 analysis, all four regular season meetings between these teams did go Over. But now it's time for an Under as I don't see either team matching its field goal percentage from Game 1. The Under is also still 13-4 in Denver's last 17 home games.

The Trail Blazers actually had a better overall FG% in Game 1 (51.9 to 50.6) and Damian Lillard led all players in scoring w/ 39 pts. But points off turnovers played a key role in the Nuggets prevailing 121-113 as four-point chalk. They scored 23 points off 18 Portland TO's while the Blazers were only able to manage six points off 12 Denver TO's. While Portland should have done better in that department, a combined 24 pts off turnovers is still a lot and I don't expect this game to be nearly as sloppy. For Portland, it may have been a case of "rust" as they had a five-day break in between series while Denver was just 48 hrs removed from a Game 7 victory over San Antonio. 

Something else I stated in the Game 1 analysis is how the Nuggets play a lot better defense at home. You'll recall I had the Under in home victories over the Spurs in both Games 5 and 7 of the last series. They allowed just 90 and 86 in those two games. Now they did allow 113 to Portland here in Game 1, which is well above their season average of 103.1 PPG allowed at the Pepsi Center. It was even above the 110.1 PPG average they allow on the road. So I do expect better defense from Denver tonight. I also expect MUCH better defense from Portland, who held Oklahoma City under 100 pts three different times in Round 1. 8* Under Blazers/Nuggets

8* Over Astros/Twins (8:05 ET): This is the ESPN game for Wednesday night. I had Houston last night as they rolled to an easy 11-0 win behind Gerrit Cole, who allowed just one hit over seven innings. Meanwhile, Houston's offense gave Cole more than enough support, including three home runs. To have any chance at winning tonight's rubber match, the Twins must "up" the offense here as they've managed just 1 run in two games vs. Astros pitching. Fortunately for them, they won't have to deal with either Cole or Justin Verlander anymore. Take the Over in this one. 

Minnesota had won four straight going into yday. They were lucky to beat Houston 1-0 on Monday, thanks to a marvelous outing from Jake Odorizzi, who outdueled Verlander. But offense has been a problem in the series as the Twins have not only scored just the one run, but they've managed only six hits! But like I already said, they're done facing the top two pitchers in the Houston rotation. Tonight, they'll face Collin McHugh, who has a 7.20 ERA his L3 starts. Now, as was the case w/ Cole yday, McHugh's ERA is inflated by one terrible start in the Texas series. He gave up 10 runs in 3 1/3 innings in Arlington, but has been pretty good otherwise. Still, he's no Verlander or Cole. 

McHugh has pitched well in the past vs. Minnesota (2.86 ERA in 7 career appearances), but this Twins team still averages 5.2 rpg. McHugh did allow three solo home runs in his last start, the only runs he gave up, so he's not entirely "out of the woods" yet. Minnesota will counter here w/ Martin Perez, who has won B2B starts, but those were both against lowly Baltimore. Perez doesn't exactly have impressive strikeout numbers and this will easily be the strongest lineup he's faced so far this season. 8* Over Astros/Twins 

8* Over A's/Red Sox (1:05 ET): It's been a dramatic turnaround for Boston in this series as they've outscored Oakland 14-5 over the last two days. Now they go for the sweep Wednesday afternoon and they have to like their chances facing a struggling Michael Fiers, who has an 8.22 ERA his L3 starts for the Athletics. Now Fiers started the season well, including a six shutout innings effort against these Red Sox back on April 2nd. He also pitched well his last time out, giving up just two runs in 7 IP vs. Toronto. But in between those two outings, Fiers allowed 6 ER in three consecutive appearances. I don't think he'll have the same amount of success in Fenway Park as he did at home vs. Boston. 

The Red Sox will send Hector Velazquez to the mound for this matinee. Velazquez has actually already pitched in this series, having worked in relief on Monday. It didn't go particularly well as he walked two batters and gave up a hit while recording just one out. Velazquez doesn't have particularly great career numbers vs. Oakland (5.91 ERA in four career appearances) and he's only getting the starting nod in this spot due to an injury to Nathan Eovaldi. In two previous starts at Fenway this season, Velazquez has a 5.69 ERA and 1.738 WHIP. Boston lost both games. 

Though the rotation has been better of late, especially in this series, the Red Sox have still given up the third most runs in all of baseball. Only Baltimore and Miami, i.e. the two worst teams, have allowed more. On the bright side, the offense is starting to come around as they now average about 5.0 rpg at home. Oakland's road games have been especially high scoring this year w/ them averaging 5.5 and giving up 6.2 rpg (going into yday's game). The Over is 6-0 the L6 times Fiers has started off a team loss. 8* Over A's/Red Sox

10* Under Avalanche/Sharks (10:05 ET): Sunday night, I appeared all set to finish off a perfect 8-0 weekend w/ the Under on Game 2 of Avs-Sharks. It was a 2-1 game w/ less than 10 minutes left in regulation and the total (for most) was 6.0. (I'd personally bet it at 6.5). Imagine my surprise then when I clicked over after watching "Game of Thrones" and saw the final score was 4-3! That's a really bad break, especially considering each team scored in the final minute and the final goal came w/ just 11 seconds left. I'll stick w/ the Under for Game 3 as it should more closely resemble what we saw for the first 2 1/2 periods on Sunday.

The Over is now 5-0 in head to head meetings between these teams this season. There has been at least seven goals scored in every game. But there's a "first time for everything," just like there was for the Avs finally beating the Sharks on Sunday. Prior to that, they were 0-4 vs. San Jose this season. So now it's the Under's "turn" to deliver as we should see the game "tighten up" as the stakes get higher. The next two games are in Colorado where the Avalanche allowed just two goals in each game in the first round series vs. Calgary. Overall, San Jose has been one of the top Over teams in the league this year (53-35-3 all games), but they don't score as much on the road.

In the three first round games at Vegas, the Sharks scored all of five goals and were shut out once. Prior to Game 2, they had scored exactly five goals in three straight home games. I think the offense is about to start to subside. The same holds true for Colorado. Going back to last season, the Over is 8-1 the L9 head to head meetings, but look for this one to be different as we've already seen the matchup being capable of producing a low-scoring game (just look at those first 2 1/2 periods in Game 2). 10* Under Avalanche/Sharks

analysis soon

8* Over Pirates/Rangers (8:05 ET): What do the Bucs have to do to score some runs? Well, adding the designated hitter to the lineup for the next two games should (theoretically) help as should a couple games against the Rangers' pitching staff. Unlike Pittsburgh, Texas has been a clear Over team of late. Five of their last eight games have ended up w/ the winning team scoring at least 11 runs. That includes them putting a combined 29 on the board at the Mariners' expense on Saturday & Sunday. Those games were on the road, but Arlington has seen its fair share of high scoring games. This will be another. Take the Over. 

Now while they were busy scoring 29 runs those L2 games, the Rangers only gave up two. Those back to back bludgeonings were something the Mariners had coming in what had been an unsustainable start to the season (I'm not a buyer on them at all). Texas may not score as many tonight, but they certainly figure to give up their "fair share" given who is on the mound. In two starts, Adrian Sampson has been dreadful, giving up nine runs in 8 1/3 innings. Both were at home. Now seven of them came in his first start, but allowing 18 baserunners across the two starts and three home runs is not a good sign at all.

The Pirates have scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball so far w/ only Miami having crossed the plate less. So you may be shocked to see such a high total here. But don't be. I've already run through the "Texas quotient" and made mention of the fact the Pirates offense should benefit here from the pitcher not having to come up to bat. Two previous games in an AL park saw the Bucs score a total of eight runs, which isn't great, but they were also facing a good Tigers' pitching staff. The Rangers have a weak starter and a bad bullpen. Jordan Lyles has pitched well for the Bucs in his four starts, but may be "up against it" here, pitching against a team that he has a 8.15 ERA against in nine career appearances. Last time out, Lyles allowed five runs. Rangers' home games so far are averaging 12.4 rpg. The Pirates may get CF Sterling Marte back in the lineup as well today. 8* Over Pirates/Rangers

10* Boston (8:05 ET): The Celtics aren't your typical 4-seed and in fact many feel they are the favorite in this series, even though the Bucks had the league's best regular season record. Game 1 certainly was a wake up call for Bucks fans, who watched their team get trounced 112-90. A team that was #1 in points per game got held to only 90 points on 34.8% shooting. Milwaukee now finds itself in almost "must win" territory heading into Game 2 tonight, but this looks to be a series that the oddsmakers have mispriced as I'm not convinced Boston isn't the better team based on its Game 1 showing or at least every bit Milwaukee's equal. Take the points. 

There's no denying that Boston underachieved in the regular season. Though they finished 4th in the East, they actually had the league's 6th best point differential and 5th best net efficiency rating. So they aren't exactly an ideal second round draw for Milwaukee here in Round 2. Remember that while this same Celtics squad made a run to the Eastern Conference Finals last year (lost to LeBron James and Cleveland), Milwaukee just won its first playoff series as a group. It was the first series win for any Bucks team going back to the group that got jobbed by the officiating in the 2001 Eastern Conference Finals (vs. the Iverson' 76ers)

The Celtics are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS their last six games and they too swept their 1st round series. Only they swept Indiana. Milwaukee was not tested by a Detroit side that appeared as ill-prepared for the playoffs as any team in recent memory. The ease w/ which the Bucks won that series may have done them no favors here. Boston is a perfect 6-0 ATS its last 6 road games and 10-3 ATS its L13 visits to Milwaukee. They are playing tremendous defense right now (allowing just 91.4 PPG in the playoffs!) and that makes them a great play as the underdog for Game 2. 10* Boston

8* Houston (7:40 ET): Coming off the Sunday night game, the Astros got blanked Monday in Minnesota, losing 1-0. That was definitely surprising, but it was a game that certainly could have gone either way. Houston had more hits (5 to 3), but ultimately things were decided w/ one swing of the bat, that being Ehire Adrianza's third inning home run. Justin Verlander may have been outdueled by Jake Odorizzi, but the same won't happen here w/ Gerrit Cole, who will be opposed by the struggling Michael Pineda. Look for the road team to get back into the win column here.

Looking at the overall numbers from his six starts, you might think that Cole has not been his usual dominant self this season. He's posted a 4.71 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. But that's misleading. He had one terrible outing, at Texas on 4/20, where he surrendered nine runs (eight earned). Other than that, he's gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or fewer every time out. Last Thursday, he did get outdueled by Cleveland's Trevor Bauer in a 2-1 loss. But Cole allowed only three hits in seven innings. The problem was that two of those three hits were home runs. Ten strikeouts is definitely what you like to see though and over his L3 starts, Cole has 29 K's. 

The Astros may have been shutout yday, but the good news is that they are 13-5 the L3 seasons when coming off a shutout loss. That includes a win back on April 5th over Oakland. The offense should wake up today against Pineda, who has a 7.80 ERA and 1.733 WHIP his L3 outings. The last two have seen him allow 10 runs in nine innings. In eight career starts vs. Houston, Pineda's ERA is 4.66. The Twins have won four in a row, but three of those were against a terrible Baltimore club. The win streak ends today as Cole gets "back on track" and the Astros aren't in as tough a situation (i.e. not coming off Sunday night game). 8* Houston

8* Under Blazers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): It may have taken the Nuggets the full seven games to eliminate the Spurs, but for me it was a perfect 5-0 series. Ironically enough, I never played Denver once! I had San Antonio in both Games 1 and 6 while also being on the right side of the total three times. Game 2 it was the Over, but Games 5 and 7 it was the Under. It's a pretty quick turnaround (basically 48 hrs) for the start of this second round matchup w/ Portland, who has been sitting idly by since impressively dispatching of the Thunder in just five games. The Over cashed in all four regular season matchups between these teams. That opens up some value to go the other way here. Take the Under.

There wasn't much that surprised me in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs. Utah flaming out so quickly against Houston was a moderate surprise. But the way Portland dominated Oklahoma City was definitely a "shock to the system." Despite being the lower seed, the Thunder were actually favored to win that series. Instead, they were done in just five games. Blazers' leading scorer Damian Lillard ended the series in the most dramatic way possible, nailing the winning three-pointer (from 37 feet!), which gave him 50 points for the game.

While all four regular season meetings went Over, none did so by a substantial margin. The teams did meet twice in April, in a home & home, and those games saw 229 and 223 total pts scored. Something I need to reiterate from my Game 7 analysis of Nuggets-Spurs is how Denver is a much better defensive team at home where they give up just 102.9 PPG (held the Spurs to 86 pts in Gm 7 after holding them to 90 in Gm 5). Portland's offensive numbers also predictably decline when they are the road team. The Under is 13-3 in Denver's L16 home games and 7-3-1 in Portland's L11 road games. 8* Under Blazers/Nuggets

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): After sitting out the first two games, I'll finally make the jump into this series. (I've played at least one game of each of the other three second round series). Spoiler alert: I like the Blues in this series, but wanted to sit back and wait for the best spot to grab them. That time appears to be now. While Game 3 is in Dallas and the Stars are 4-1 this year vs. the Blues, St. Louis still grades out as the better team in my eyes, especially in the key metric of Corsi For % where they rank a strong 9th overall. Dallas is only 24th, second worst among playoff teams (Islanders).

St. Louis certainly had no issue winning on the road in Round 1. They went 3-0 at Winnipeg, which is a tough place to play. The Jets were 25-12-4 SU at home in the regular season. Of course, the Blues have done plenty of winning over the last several months as they entered the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the Western Conference. Even after losing Game 2, they are still 29-13 SU in their last 42 games.

Whereas Dallas ranked 2nd in the league in goals allowed during the regular season, St. Louis wasn't far behind, tied for 5th. In the playoffs, the Blues have given up 22 goals in eight games. The Stars have given up just 17 in the same number of games. But despite this, I think it's still worth mentioning that Dallas was only 28th in goals per game in the regular season. So after allowing four goals in Game 2, expect Blues goalie Jordan Bennington to have a bounce back game here. He led the league in goals against average (GAA) at 1.89 and remember that him taking over between the pipes was a real catalyst for the total team turnaround. The Blues have won five straight as underdogs. 10* St. Louis

10* Over Sixers/Raptors (8:05 ET): I had Toronto in Game 1 and that proved to be the correct call as they rolled to a 108-95 win and cover as 6-pt chalk. While my view that the Raptors are the superior team here has not changed, I also expect Philadelphia to come back stronger in Game 2. They only shot 39.3% from the field Saturday and what was most odd about that is how poorly they shot on their two-point attempts. Going 11 for 32 from three-point range is by no means great, but it's pretty close to average. Going 24 of 57 from two-point range (42%) is pretty low. It also didn't help that the Sixers missed one-third of their free throw attempts (14 of 21). 

Toronto has been playing outstanding defense in the playoffs. They're allowing an average of just 92.5 PPG on 38.9% shooting. They've gone five straight games w/o giving up 100 pts. Those are really impressive numbers. They're also likely unsustainable. The Sixers are typically a pretty strong offensive team, averaging 115.4 PPG for the year. They scored 122 or more three times in the first round vs. Brooklyn. Granted, the Nets are pretty bad defensively. But Philly should definitely top its offensive outut from Game 1 here. The Over is 5-1 the L6 times they've been off a SU/ATS loss. 

Predictably, the Game 2 total opened a little lower and that gives us some value right off the bat. I should probably spend some time talking about the Toronto offense. This is a team that has shot well in the playoffs (48.5%) and they average 114.6 PPG at home. Kawhi Leonard dropped 45 pts Saturday, but perhaps more impressive Pascal Siakam adding 29. While neither player may match their respective Game 1 totals, I expect the rest of the team to contribute more than a combined 34 points (possibly double that here?). Philly is not a great defensive team, by any means. 10* Over Sixers/Raptors

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets have been outscored by 19 runs so far this season, which is the fourth worst run differential in the entire National League. But give them some credit, they have managed to go 14-13, including a 5-2 win Sunday over the Brewers. That kept them from being swept here at Citi Field and they're just 1.5 games back of the Phillies in the NL East. Normally, with a run differential like that, you'd find me looking to fade, but that's not the case here. Not even w/ the Reds having the opposite profile (i.e. losing record, but positive run differential).

Cincinnati has had two really big wins this year. Back on April 9th, they beat Miami 14-0 and would go onto sweep that series. (Note: I had them in that 14-0 win). They also just beat St. Louis 12-1 on Friday. Take away those two games and the numbers get pretty dire, especially at the plate. This is one of baseball's worst offenses as they'll come into Monday ranked dead last in team batting average (.208) and 29th in on base percentage (.280). They were held to just two runs on Sunday (both coming in the top of the ninth) in a loss Sunday at St. Louis. Other than the two aforementioned games, there's only been one other time all season that the Reds have scored more than five runs in a game, which is crazy. They've been held to three or fewer in just over half their total games.

So Monday's starter for the Mets, Zach Wheeler, shouldn't have much trouble shutting down this lineup. Wheeler has a 4.85 ERA, but he's pitched better recently w/ a 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP his L3 starts (all three quality). Last time out, he threw seven shutout innings vs. Philadelphia and had 11 strikeouts (and no walks). Give him the edge over Reds starter Tanner Roark, who has a misleading 3.25 ERA seeing as his WHIP is 1.601. That means Roark has giving up more baserunners than you typically like to see and eventually that'll catch up w/ a starting pitcher. How about here? 10* NY Mets

10* Under Avs/Sharks (7:05 ET): Game 1 of this series saw San Jose storm back from an early 2-1 deficit to win 5-2. The game clearly swung in the second period when the Sharks scored three straight times after killing off a four-minute penalty. They added an empty-netter for the final margin and the Over. There were not a ton of shots on goal in Game 1, so while seven of the previous eight meetings between these teams have gone Over the total (including five straight), I think we're in for a lower scoring Game 2. Take the Under here.

San Jose has beaten Colorado all four times they've played this season. In all four wins, the Sharks have scored at least four goals, three times scoring five. That's not a recipe for success if you're the Avalanche, so they'll definitely have to "tighten up" if they want to take this series. Do I think the Avs are going to win this series? Not really, but I wouldn't want to fade them in this spot, especially at the "going rate." Remember, after losing Game 1 to Calgary in Round 1, the Avs would take four straight and hold the Flames to just seven total goals. The Flames were one of the highest scoring teams in the league. 

San Jose averages 3.7 goals per game on home, so they will be difficult to stop. But Calgary averaged more than 4.0 gpg on home ice, so the Avs have "been here before." As for their own scoring here, I'm not expecting them to have two goals on the board by early in the second period again. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times the Avs have been off a loss by 3+ goals, including Game 2 of the Calgary series. Since falling down 3-1 in their first round series w/ Vegas, the Sharks have been on fire. But remember that if it wasn't for that gift penalty in Game 7, they probably wouldn't be here at all. Look for them to start to cool down offensively. 10* Under Avs/Sharks

10* NY Yankees (4:05 ET): The Yankees might be missing some key pieces from their lineup right now, but they've been able to piece enough together to easily beat the Giants in the first two games of this Interleage series. Now they go for the sweep Sunday and I'm not anticipating much trouble for the team wearing pinstripes. The outlook for San Francisco is obviously very bleak as they are going to be one of the worst teams in the National League. They just can't score as only two teams (Miami, Pittsburgh) have put fewer runs on the board. They are also 29th in team batting average and 30th (i.e. last) in OPS. Time to break out the brooms. 

Based on what we've seen so far from starter Domingo German, this appears to be a shockingly low price on the road team. After a slow start to the season (again, injuries), the Yanks have really turned it around, winning eight of the last nine ballgames. Granted, they're not exactly beating the best teams (KC, Angels, Giants), but you can only play who is on the schedule. Despite all of the injuries, NY is still 5th in all of MLB in runs scored, which is really impressive when you think about it. They've scored 13 so far in this series (two games) and that's w/ the pitcher having to come up to bat! 

Speaking of pitchers, German has been solid so far w/ a 1.90 ERA and 0.887 WHIP in four starts. Last time out, he went 6 2/3 innings and only allowed one unearned run. It was his third consecutive quality outing. The Giants lineup, also besieged by injuries, is obviously unfamiliar w/ German. Even if they were familiar, it's not as if this is a strong lineup - even when at full strength. Dereck Rodriguez has pitched pretty well for the Giants in four starts, but this is a total fade against his team, which continues to do little offensively. The Yankees have gone 28-14 against the National League the L3 seasons. 10* NY Yankees 

8* Under Orioles/Twins (2:10 ET): Baltimore can't seem to beat Minnesota as the Birds are 0-5 so far in 2019 against the Twins. That doesn't figure to change Sunday and what would be nice about the home team winning here is that it would likely mean NOT playing the bottom of the ninth and that's always a nice advantage when playing the Under. But regardless of whether not the Twins win here, I like the game to stay Under. Yes, neither starting pitcher for Sunday has been impressive. But don't be surprised when this ends up being a relatively low-scoring game.

Baltimore took a 9-2 loss yesterday (lost 6-1 Friday) as they continue to pace all of MLB in a dubious category, that being the most runs allowed. They've allowed 180 runs in 28 games and that's 22 more than any other team. Remember that this was a historically bad team in 2018 (115 losses!) and things don't figure to go much better this season. Four of the last six games have seen the O's get held to three runs or less. One positive is that they are giving up a lot less runs per game on the road (4.9) compared to at home (8.2!). Dylan Bundy (winless in 5 starts) will get the baseball today. Though only one start has gone longer than five innings (it was his last one), Bundy has surrendered 3 ER or less in 4 of those 5 starts.

Minnesota counters w/ Kyle Gibson. He too is off his best outing of the year. It just so happens those respective starts came against each other! Bundy went six innings and while he was charged w/ four runs, two were unearned. Gibson was better, allowing just two runs on five hits, also over six innings. He finished w/ 6 K's and no walks. The Twins have obviously not allowed many runs to Baltimore so far in the series (just three) and in the five wins against them this year, they've allowed just 18 total. Visitors are averaging just 3.1 rpg at Target Field this season. 8* Under Orioles/Twins

10* Under Celtics/Bucks (1:05 ET): Both teams swept their way right into Round 2. Milwaukee was less surprising as it was clear from the outset that their Rd 1 opponent (Detroit) was ill-prepared for playoff basketball. The Bucks won the four games by an average of 23.7 points per game and the closest the Pistons got in any game was 16 pts. Boston had an easier time than expected w/ Indiana as the Pacers clearly missed leading scorer Victor Oladipo. That series was very low scoring w/ neither team even averaging 100 PPG. I believe Game 1 of this series is set to be low-scoring as well (comparatively speaking, at least). Take the Under. 

These teams met in the playoffs last year as well. The series, which took place in Round 1 and went the full seven games, saw the Celtics advance. So revenge will be a motivating factor here for the top-seeded Bucks, who have the home court advantage this time around. The O/U line here - while in line w/ the three regular season meetings - is MUCH higher than it was for any of the games in LY's 1st round series. Five of those seven games went Over, but what is interesting about that is only ONE of them would have gone Over this number. The last time the teams played was Feb 21st, right after the All-Star Break, and the Bucks won 98-97 at home. 

We know Milwaukee is prolific at the offensive end as they led the league in scoring. But they also led the league in defensive efficiency. Detroit was held to 98.0 PPG on 38.8% shooting in that first round series. That could mean trouble for a Boston team that averaged only 99.2 PPG against an Indiana team that was #3 in the league in defensive efficiency. Of course, Boston is no slouch itself at the defensive end (#6 in efficiency) as they held the Pacers to 91.7 PPG on 40.1% shooting. The Under is 4-0 the L3 times the Bucks have played on 3+ days rest while the Celtics are 6-2 Under in that same scenario. 10* Under Celtics/Bucks

8* Under Spurs/Nuggets (10:05 ET): Not to "toot my own horn," but "toot, toot!" I've gone a perfect 4-0 w/ plays in this series, starting w/ San Antonio's outright upset in Game 1. That game went Under the total, but we didn't see another Under until Game 5. That Game 5 Under was another winner for me. I also won with the Over in Game 2. Game 6 was another easy call on the Spurs as they rolled to a 120-103 win and cover as three-point favorites. Game 7 is in Denver, giving what appears to be a decided edge to the Nuggets, but my view coming into the series is that these teams were pretty even and tonight's spread looks too high. 

Oddsmakers have been pretty consistent w/ their O/U lines in this series as they've all ranged from 207 to 210.5. Something I do NOT expect to happen here is the Spurs' matching their overall shooting % from the last game. Game 6 saw them sink an incredible 57.1% of their shot attempts, including 10 of 24 from three-point range. That was easily their best FG% of any game in the series (only time over 50%). It's only predictable that they'll decline out on the road. In the three games so far at Denver, the Spurs have scored 101, 105 and 90 points, an average of just 98.7 per game. 

For the year, all San Antonio's offensive numbers decline pretty substantially on the road, especially three-point shooting. While they are #1 overall in the league in 3-pt FG%, that's largely because they shoot a lights out 41.9% at home. On the road, that shooting clip dips to 36.5%. Denver defends a lot better at home too, giving up only 103.3 PPG (as opposed to 110.1 PPG on the road). What's notable about that is visitors are shooting just 32.2% from behind the arc here at the Pepsi Center. The Under is 14-4 the L18 times Denver has been off an ATS loss. The Under is also 9-3 in San Antonio's last 12 road games. 8* Under Spurs/Nuggets

8* Augusto Sakai (8:00 ET): I'm going w/ Sakai to win this three-round right as Andrei Arlovski's best days are obviously well behind him. The former UFC Heavyweight Champ is just 2-7-1 his L10 fights and you'd have to go all the way back to him defeating Travis Browne in May of 2015 (TKO) to find the last time he stopped anybody. Really, the opportunity to simply fade Arlovski at this point of his career is enough justification for a play here. But I also happen to like Sakai a lot as well! 

Sakai is 27 years old (13 years younger than Arlovski) and is 12-1-1 w/ that lone loss coming via split decision to Cheick Kongo in Bellator. Sakai's UFC debut, which was September of last year, was quite impressive as he stopped Chase Sherman via Rd 3 TKO in a fight he was already dominating. That makes it three straight TKO victories for the Challenger Series alum. Ten of his 12 victories have come by TKO.

I seriously doubt this one will get to the cards either, which should be a theme throughout UFC Fight Night 150 here on ESPN. Sakai is just going to be too strong for Arlovski to overcome in any kind of wrestling or clinch situations and Arlovski simply doesn't have the ability to finish fights anymore. This is a really low price on a superior, up and coming fighter. 8* August Sakai

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Raptors' misfortune in Game 1's is well-known. I wrote about in the opener of their 1st round series (where I won w/ the Under) and said an outright upset was a "distinct possibility." Sure enough, they did lose outright to Orlando, by a score of 104-101 (were -9.5). But then the Raptors really poured it on over the next four games, holding the Magic to an average of 89 PPG while winning all four. I do think that this Game 1 is going to be different for Toronto as I have my suspicions about Philadelphia going forward and think they're outclassed here. Lay the points.

For the record, the Raptors are 2-14 SU all-time in Game 1's. That includes a 1-10 record in Round 1. What's really head-scratching is that a lot of these losses have occurred at home. Each of the last two years, they've been swept in Round 2, but that was against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. This time, there will be no King James and they do enter as the better team. There's also some positive history on their side. They've defeated Philadelphia 13 straight times here at home and are 21-3 SU against them since the start of the 2013-14 regular season. The Sixers did win one of the four matchups this year, but that was when the Raptors were w/o Kawhi Leonard. 

Toronto's defense against Orlando really impressed me. Of course, they are a pretty strong offensive team as well, averaging 114.0 PPG while ranking sixth in efficiency. Philadelphia actually averages slightly more PPG (one spot behind in efficiency), but there is a gap at the defensive end. In the first round vs. Brooklyn, the Sixers followed a similar trajectory by losing Game 1, then winning four straight. But they also gave up an average of 111.4 PPG. Remember that the Sixers had a pretty week YTD point differential (+2.9 PPG) for a 3-seed. 10* Toronto