8* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Terrible spot for the Predators tonight as they played last night at MSG (did beat the Rangers 5-2) and are up against an Islanders team that has been tremendous at home so far, especially on the goals allowed side of the ledger. Not only that, the Isles have won three in a row overall (two of the wins on the road). They've got some revenge on the mind too after losing both games to Nashville last season. The Islanders are 6-1 when playing w/ exactly two days rest.

New York is currently second in the Metropolitan, trailing only Washington. They are 13-2-1 SU at home this season. No team has given up fewer goals and it's really not even close as the next closest team has given up 12 more. They allow just 2.3 gpg and lately they've been even stingier, giving up just 1.8 gpg the last five contests. A 3-2 OT win over the Sabres on Saturday extended the Islanders' home win streak to six games. Consider that despite having played the fewest games in the league, the Islanders have the 7th most points. 

Nashville has had and up and down season to this point and currently sits in sixth place in the Central Division. They would not be in the playoffs were they to start today. The Preds are giving up 3.4 goals per game on the road, putting themselves at a big disadvantage here as the Isles are 4th in the league in goals allowed at home while that average has Nashville near the bottom on the road. Really, the Islanders couldn't ask for a better situation to pick up two points. Nashville lost the only other time this year it was in a back to back. 8* NY Islanders

10* Over Kings/Hornets (7:05 ET): This is a low total for two teams that aren't very good defensively. Granted, Sacramento did show some "defensive chops" in its 100-79 win at Golden State Sunday. But the Warriors are nothing more than a pathetic shell of their former selves at this point. In that same game, the Kings shot over 60% from the field. While it's highly unlikely they'll be able match that kind of shooting here today, that'll be offset by defensive regression. 

Charlotte has scored 85 and 83 points its last two games, yet another reason tonight's O/U is so low. The Hornets actually won one of those two games as they beat Chicago 83-73 on the road last Friday, despite it being their lowest scoring game of the year. It was also their best defensive effort as they held the Bulls to 30% shooting for the game. But that defensive effort didn't last long as the Hornets allowed 107 in a loss at Indiana on Sunday. They've allowed at least 107 in five of their last six games. 

I know both teams have been playing low scoring games of late. But this O/U still doesn't make much sense to me. When the teams met in Sacramento back on October 30th, the total was 223 and the game went Over! That was a 118-111 Hornets win as 7-point underdogs. They shot the ball well. The Kings did not. No Hornets player has scored 20 pts in the L2 games w/ the team shooting a hideous 11 of 63 from three-point range. That's got to improve moving forward. Charlotte allows 112.2 PPG at home. 10* Over Kings/Hornets

8* Over Evansville/Jacksonville St (8:30 ET): Again, I'm targeting a game where we've got one team on a pretty lengthy O/U streak and looking to buck the trend. In this case, it's Jacksonville State that has gone Under six straight times. The number isn't quite as low as I'd hoped, but it's still a lot lower than where it was when the Gamecocks faced Evansville last year. That game went way Under (final score was 55-50), but this Evansville team isn't going to have any games that low scoring this year. Take the Over. 

Evansville has five straight. Three of those wins have been by six points or less, which is why I backed off from laying points with the Purple Aces here, even though they are clearly the "bettors choice" tonight. The five-game win streak began w/ a 115-112 win over Morgan State, which went to three overtimes. While that amount of scoring certainly skews the Purple Aces' season averages, I still hang my hat on them averaging almost 80.0 PPG (79.8) while they allow 76.6. They've given up at least 71 in over half their games played while they've also scored 70 or more eight times.

Jacksonville State may be in a scoring slump, but that's because most of those games were played on the road or at neutral sites. Now their return home last week to play Troy didn't go according to plan, as they lost 60-55. But I don't see the Gamecocks shooting 34.1% at home again like they did in that game. Nor do I see Evansville shooting below 40% again like they did Saturday at WI-Green Bay. The Purple Aces were lucky that the Phoenix shot just 33.3%, the kind of percentage you rarely see from an Evansville opponent. 8* Over Evansville/Jacksonville State

10* Under Colts/Saints (8:15 ET): While New Orleans is 10-3, I've been pretty consistent this year in labeling them as a team that has been both "lucky" and "good." They've gone 7-1 SU in games decided by eight points or fewer, that lone loss coming last week to San Francisco by a score of 48-46. While it is tough to imagine the Saints dropping two straight at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, I'm not going to lay this many points w/ a team that has only three double digits wins this season, only one of those coming at home. Indianapolis, fighting for its playoff life, isn't about to simply "roll over" either. 

The Colts know a thing or two about close games. All but two of their games this season have been decided by seven points or less. One was a win, 33-13 vs. Jacksonville, and the other was a loss (31-17 vs. Tennessee). The only reason they lost that game to the Titans by more than a touchdown was an Adam Vinateri FG getting blocked and returned for a TD. 

With both teams coming off very high scoring losses (Colts lost 38-35 at TB), it's no wonder that the O/U has been bet up for Monday night. However, this Colts' offense hasn't performed up to par for three straight games now. The defense had a TD last week, something they can't continue to count on. WR TY Hilton remained limited in practice this week and will be a game-time decision. The offense just hasn't been the same without him. This could close as the 2nd highest O/U line of the year for the Colts despite them not having Hilton. 10* Under Colts/Saints

analysis soon

10* Over Cavs/Raptors (7:35 ET): I still can't believe that Toronto's last game didn't go Over as they had 65 points by halftime and also allowed 60. Going into the 4th quarter, it was a 90-83 game, meaning 46 points was all I needed in the 4th (yes, I had the Over in case you couldn't tell where this is going!). All three previous quarters saw at least 48 total pts scored. So no problem right? Wrong. The Raptors and Nets combined for only 39 pts over the last 12 minutes. 

But in Cleveland, the Raptors have an ideal opponent to end what is now a five-game Under streak. The Cavs are second worst in the league in defensive efficiency and are giving up an average of over 120 points the last five games. They just allowed 125 against Milwaukee Saturday night, a game which predictably ended in a double digit defeat. They let the Bucks shoot 54.1% from the field. While Milwaukee is the best team in the league right now, let's not sell Toronto short either. They are averaging 115.0 PPG at home this year.

With the Raptors certainly likely to "get theirs" tonight, this one may boil down to how much scoring Cleveland does. While not a good offensive team by any means, the Cavaliers have averaged over 110 PPG their last three contests. These are the kind of games Toronto usually goes Over in as they are 7-3 Over when facing a team w/ a losing record. Last season, three of the four meetings went Over including both here in Toronto. 10* Over Cavs/Raptors

10* Over Mercer/UNC-Wilmington (7:00 ET): This is exactly the kind of O/U play that I look for in College Hoops. Mercer has gone Under in five straight games. But that's resulted in their lowest O/U of the season to date. During these last five games, they've shot a paltry 39.9% from the field. That's way down from where they are normally at, which is 43.1% for the year. Facing an opponent that can definitely score, tonight's game is going to go way Over the total.

UNC-Wilmington averages 89.7 PPG at home, so they are a more than willing "dance partner" for Mercer's Over problems. Yes, that average is inflated by the fact UNCW three times scored 100+ against non-board teams. There's quite a drop in scoring when looking at D-I opponents, including the last three games, all of which have seen the Seahawks held below 60 points. But tonight should be a breakout night as Mercer is giving up 81.3 PPG on the road this season! 

It's not just the road. Mercer is allowing 76.7 PPG overall, so they are a bad defensive team. At the same time, their own offense should get cooking here as UNC-Wilmington just let Charlotte shoot a blistering 57.4% from the field two Saturdays ago. Both teams have been off for more than week, so we're getting lots of fresh legs in this one. Look for that to lead to an "offensive-minded game." These teams met last year and the final score was 77-73 in Mercer's favor. UNC Wilmington shot only 25.9% from three-point range in that game, but is hitting over 43% at home this year. 10* Over Mercer/UNC Wilmington

10* Over Bills/Steelers (8:20 ET): This game was "flexed" into the Sunday Night spot because - as of right now - these would be your two Wild Card teams in the AFC. Buffalo is 9-4, though coming off a 24-17 home loss to Baltimore. Pittsburgh has improbably continued to win and now is 8-5 following a 23-17 win over Arizona last week. Both teams are known more for their defenses, which is why we've got such a low total here. In addition, the last five Steelers games have all stayed Under (and last 3 for the Bills). But I look for this one to end that streak as it won't take much scoring. 

The Bills at one point had gone Under five straight times this season. It was back in the first five weeks of the season. I took them Over the following week, despite facing the lowest scoring team in the league (Miami) and sure enough the game went Over. You just don't see many teams go Over or Under more than five consecutive times. Even with the low amount of scoring in games involving these teams, the average number of total PPG for both just exceeds the current O/U line. Bills games average 37.4 PPG this year. Steelers games average 38.4. All we are asking for here is an "average" game. 

Devlin "Duck" Hodges is the latest player to step up for a Steelers offense that has been hit extremely hard by injuries. The offense has operated more efficiently w/ him than it did when Mason Rudolph was under center. In the three games Hodges has started this year, Pittsburgh has scored 24, 23 and 20 points. They should find success running the ball here as that's the weakness of the Bills' defense. QB Josh Allen played a terrible game last week against Baltimore, but should have a bounce back game here. The Over is 13-4 the L17 games where the Steelers were a home favorite. 10* Over Bills/Steelers

10* Minnesota (6:30 ET): #3 Ohio State is set to open conference play on Sunday with a visit to Minnesota. The Big 10 is once again absolutely loaded with three teams currently in the AP Top 5 and seven in the top 25 of the KenPom ratings. Minnesota may not be one of those teams, but they still present a formidable challenge for the unbeaten Buckeyes on Sunday. We've seen unbeatens "drop like flies" over the past week, so I'm taking the points here. 

Minnesota's Big 10 opener did not go well as they were beaten by 20 at Iowa on Monday. It was the Gophers' worst loss of the season as they shot just 36.8% from the field. Looking at the game by game shooting percentages, it's easy to identify which games the Gophers have won and which they have lost. In their four wins, they are shooting better than 50%. In the five losses, they are below 38%. Three of those five losses were on the road, however. 

Ohio State has been dominant at both ends of the floor. They just scored 106 points on Penn State last Saturday, a performance that was preceded by a 74-49 beatdown of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. While a case could be made that the Buckeyes have played better than anyone in the country so far, I think this is a spot where they can slip up. They've been off for over a week and it's just their second "true" road game. The Gophers have revenge for an ugly 20-point loss in Columbus last year (I had the Buckeyes in that one), plus can OSU really cover for an eighth straight time? 10* Minnesota

10* Winnipeg (5:05 ET): The Flyers are one of the league's most improved teams this year, but all of a sudden they've dropped three of four, which has them in the precarious fifth position in the Metro. Improved goaltending has been a big key for Allan Vigneault's team (remember the Flyers infamously used SEVEN different goaltenders last season), but numbers on the road remain suspect. Tonight the Flyers are in Winnipeg where they'll encounter an angry Jets team. 

Winnipeg is off an embarrassing defeat as they lost to the league's worst team (Detroit) on Thursday. They had just beaten the Red Wings 5-1 here on home ice two days prior, so not being able to sweep them was definitely a shock. Now the Wings did win again last night. But before that they'd lost 12 in a row including 10 straight in regulation. My guess is the Jets are going to come out angry this afternoon. Before losing in Detroit, they had gone 6-1-1 the previous eight games.

This is not a good spot for Philadelphia as they played last night in Minnesota (lost 4-1). While there's no shame in losing on the road, last night's result does unscore an issue w/ this Flyers club, that being they are simply not a very good road team. They are 7-8-1 (compared to 10-2-4 at home) and giving up 3.3 goals per game. Winnipeg has had two days off to stew over the Detroit loss where a number of "fluke plays" went against them. The Flyers had just 18 shots on goal last night and lost two forwards to injury. 10* Winnipeg

8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET): Well, we're going with some real "beauties" in this 3-pack, no? This Jags-Raiders game is as ugly as any on the slate not named "Dolphins @ Giants." While Oakland would seem to be a respectable team because of its 6-7 SU record, they have lost three straight games - all by 21 points or more. They've failed to cover four in a row. There may not be a team w/ a more misleading record in the league right now as the Silver and Black have a YTD point differential of -108, just seven points better than the 2-11 Giants. The Raiders should not be laying a touchdown to anybody right now. 

Not to be outdone, Jacksonville is on a five-game losing streak - SU and ATS - and all five losses have been by at least 17 points. It hasn't mattered whether it's been Gardner Minshew II or Nick Foles in at QB, the results have not been pretty. Last week the Jags got thoroughly outclassed at home by the Chargers, losing 45-10 in a game where they were outgained by more than a 2:1 margin. Still it's interesting to see how the market has shifted against Jacksonville for this one. It was never more than a 4.5-point underdog in any of those L5 games. 

This is likely to be the final game the Raiders ever play in Oakland. They are scheduled to move to Las Vegas for the 2020 season. While I'm sure there will be some emotion in the "Black Hole," that still doesn't justify the Raiders laying more than 3.5 points for just the second time all season. The first was here at home vs. Cincinnati (were -12.5) and they only won that game 17-10. They haven't won since. Oakland has gone off as the favorite in only three games all season! I see Jacksonville playing better than usual this week as these are two teams I have rated very evenly. 8* Jacksonville

10* Under Texans/Titans (1:00 ET): While there's far more on the line here than just Tennessee's 7-game Over streak (like first place in the AFC South), that's what will be our focus here as it's time for my biggest NFL O/U release of the season! The key to the Titants getting hot has been Ryan Tannehill of all people. Since taking over for the ineffective Marcus Mariota, Tannehill has led the team to a 6-1 SU record (5-1-1 ATS), which now has them in a first place tie w/ the Texans. During the 6-1 streak, Tennessee has averaged 31.4 PPG. The only QB w/ a better passer rating - or WL record - than Tannehill over the L7 wks is Lamar Jackson. 

Tannehill becoming the Titans' starting QB also directly coincides w/ the team's 7-0 Over streak. Now they get set to for the first of two games w/ the Texans, who were just bushwhacked by Denver last week. Houston trailed 38-3 after the first drive of the second half and needed some garbage time scores from DeShaun Watson just to make things look reasonable (ended up losing 38-24). Making that result all the more head-scratching is the fact the Texans had just beaten the Patriots the previous week. I know there's been some concerns about the defense ever since JJ Watt went down, but Romeo Crenell's group should be playing better than it has. 

While Tannehill deserves most of the credit for Tennessee catching fire, his defense and special teams have both regularly contributed to the scoring as well. There's been a non-offensive TD each of the L2 wks for the Titans. Plus, they are getting a ridiculous number of "big" plays (65+ yd TDs) as well. Eventually, that's going to dry up. They have not scored more than 24 points against Houston since 2010! As for the Titans' defense, it has allowed more than 23 pts in only two games this season. This is the Under we are looking for. 10* Under Texans/Titans

8* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Lions' season has taken a drastic downturn with six straight losses. They've lost 9 of 10 since a 2-0-1 start and what makes that all the more frustrating is they've been in a majority of these games. Last week's 20-7 loss to the Vikings was the first game all season in which the Lions never led. Incredibly, they have led or at least been tied in the 4th quarter in all but three games (two vs. Minnesota, one vs. Dallas). Injuries have certainly taken a toll, but I still don't believe they should be getting more than a field goal this week at home vs. the Buccaneers. 

Tampa Bay has fought its way back to 6-7 SU by winning three in row. They probably deserved a better fate than pushing as three-point favorites in 38-35 win last week over Indianapolis, considering they outgained the Colts 542-309. But because they turned the ball over four times (three interceptions by Jameis Winston), they actually needed to come back from a two touchdown deficit. Winston is now dealing w/ a thumb injury, which won't help his ball security issues. Note Tampa Bay has not won four in a row since 2016. This is the most points they've had to lay in any road game since the 2013 season opener (which they lost outright to the Jets). 

My own power rankings have this spread as a pick 'em. Yes, I am aware that Detroit has managed all of 17 points in the last seven quarters w/ third stringer David Blough at QB. But that doesn't change the fact TB shouldn't be laying this many points. Like the Lions, the Bucs have experienced a six-game ATS losing streak this year. They have only four wins by more than a field goal. The injured Winston won't have Mike Evans to throw to either as the Bucs top WR may be done for the season. Detroit's secondary only has five interceptions all season, but they could easily double that number here. 8* Detroit.  

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): When talking about teams whose season went south in a hurry, few can compare to the Panthers, who shockingly fired HC Ron Rivera two weeks ago. The coaching change failed to turn the tide last week in Atlanta where the Panthers lost 40-20 as 3.5-point underdogs. They've now lost five in a row - by an average of 13 points per game. But both blowouts came against Atlanta. The other three losses have all been one-score games as have been five of the team's eight total losses this season. In the first home game under interim HC Perry Fewell, I am expecting an inspired effort. 

Seattle has had just the opposite luck as Carolina this season. They entered last week's game w/ the Rams at 10-2 w/ a YTD point differential of +36. No team in NFL history had ever won 10 of its first 12 games w/ a point differential that small. Sure enough, we faded them out in LA last week and they were beaten 28-12, further exposing that point differential. I've said it before and I'll say it again here. The Seahawks have been more lucky than good this season by going a ridiculously fortunate 9-2 SU in one-score games. Their ONLY win that came by more than eight points was Week 4 at Arizona. 

I know the bloom is off the "Kyle Allen rose" and that the Panthers defense has had some real difficulties stopping teams of late. But, with "the world" figuring to be on Seattle this week, this is a great chance to step in and "buy low" on the home dog. This is a spread that should be no larger than a field goal. Seattle's rushing attack took a hit w/ Rashaad Penny tearing his ACL last week. The Panthers have also been unfortunate to be -12 in turnover margin during their 5-game losing streak. They get these issues correct this week and at least cover against a Seattle team that isn't as good as its record. This will be the Seahawks' FIFTH trip to the Eastern Time Zone. 8* Carolina

10* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): With the exodus of talent that took place in the offseason (both Russell Westbrook and Paul George leaving), most expected the Thunder's win total to take a serious nosedive in 2019-20. But they've remained competitive and actually have a positive point differential and net efficiency rating entering Saturday. Only six teams in the West have winning records right now, so the Thunder could actually end up making the playoffs if they can maintain their level of play from the first quarter of the season. I like them as an underdog tonight in Denver. 

The Nuggets won the Northwest last season w/ a 54-28 SU record. That was second best among all teams in the conference (behind only Golden State), but it came w/ a caveat, that being a 13-3 record in games decided by three points or less. So I anticipate a little regression from Denver this year. But, like the Thunder, so far they've been able to outperform expectations, largely due to giving up the fewest number of points in the league (101.6 PPG). They are 5th in the West right now, which honestly is where I expect them to finish.

Over the previous two seasons, the Thunder are 0-8 ATS vs. the Nuggets and 1-7 straight up. They've lost all four games here in Denver. But I like the number we are getting tonight. Over those last eight head to head meetings, the Nuggets have been favored just one time. OKC has covered four straight, the last three all coming on the road, and the only SU loss during that stretch was by a single point. They've held their L3 opponents all under 100 points. In what could be a low-scoring game, taking points is a premium. 10* Oklahoma City 

10* Over Nets/Raptors (7:35 ET): Despite missing Kyrie Irving, Caris LeVert and of course Kevin Durant, Brooklyn has still managed to play pretty well. Even in Wednesday's 113-108 loss to Charlotte, they led by as many as 20 points. Losing that game as a 9.5-point favorite certainly had to be disappointing, but the Nets are still 8-3 SU & ATS the L11 games heading into tonight's tilt at Toronto, a place where they have lost eight consecutive times. 

After going 8-2 without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, the Raptors have curiously nosedived since both returned to the lineup. They've lost four of five and failed to cover the spread in every game. The lone win was by a single point against Chicago. What really jumps out is they've failed to score 100 points in B2B games. That happening on the road is one thing, but the Clippers just held them to 92 on Wednesday. For the season, the Raptors are averaging 116.3 PPG at home.

Both of these teams have struggled when matched up with opponents that are .500 or better. Toronto is just 3-8 vs. such foes while Brooklyn is 3-6 and hasn't won one on the road. So the total is the focus for tonight and I like the Over. Nets' road games have averaged 228.3 PPG this season. As I mentioned earlier, Toronto's scoring average goes up considerably here at home. They also give up more PPG "North of the Border." The Over is 3-0 this year when Brooklyn is on exactly two days rest. 10* Over Nets/Raptors

10* Santa Clara (5:00 ET): Whenever I see Santa Clara, I think back to when I was a kid and they pulled that big 1st Round NCAA Tournament upset against Arizona. It was one of the first times a 15-seed ever won a 1st round Tournament game. Just to illustrate how long ago that was, Steve Nash was on that team! He's retired from the NBA now, I'm not a kid anymore and Santa Clara really hasn't done anything notable since. But I'm looking for them to make a "new memory" for me this afternoon as they host Sacramento State. 

Santa Clara has actually been pretty good this year. Their only two losses have been on the road, at Nevada and Stanford. At home, they are 9-0 SU and winning by an average margin of 21.1 PPG. True to form, the Broncos beat Cal by 19 here last Saturday. Every win this year has been by double digits. The Broncos are getting the job done at both ends of the floor, shooting over 50% at home while keeping their opponents down at 39.4%. 

Sacramento State's only loss this year came on the road to a ranked Colorado team. So the Hornets will be a real test for Santa Clara this afternoon. Sacramento State is one of only two teams left in the country w/o an ATS loss (5-0 ATS), the other being UTEP, who has played only three lined games. It was a close call last week on the road against CS-Fullerton as they pulled off a 62-59 win as 2-point favorites. I don't like the chances of a team that has topped 62 only once against a D-I opponent here. 10* Santa Clara

10* Over Tulsa/Arkansas (1:30 ET): Last Saturday, we played Arkansas Over the total and for the 1st time this season a Razorbacks game did go Over. Unfortunately for them, they also suffered their first loss, 86-79 at Western Kentucky (in overtime). This afternoon finds the Hogs matched up with a team sporting a similar O/U record, that being Tulsa, who is 9-1 Under on the year and has gone Under in five straight. It's a low total this afternoon, much lower than most O/U lines these teams have seeen. Take the Over. 

Coming off their first loss and a full week of rest, I expect Arkansas to come out strong on Saturday. Last week's loss to WKU was by far their worst defensive effort to date. While the number of points they allow here is likely to improve, look for that to be offset by an offensive attack that posted its third highest point total of the season last time out. Almost all Arkansas games would have gone Over this number, so we're getting some good value. 

As for Tulsa, they have not faced anyone as good as Arkansas yet, so today's game could be a bit of a "shock to the system." The Golden Hurricane have shot better than 50% as a team the L2 games, which is a good sign. Against WKU, Arkansas' lack of size was exposed, so look for Tulsa to go down low and try and do what the Hilltoppers did in the paint. There have simply been "too many Unders" between these teams so far for them NOT to go Over this low total. 10* Over Tulsa/Arkansas

10* Under Clippers/T'Wolves (9:35 ET): Most power rankings call the Clippers the third best team in the league right now, the obvious front-runners being Milwaukee and the Lakers. I'm going to disagree. Doc Rivers' team has won three straight, all on the road, and 12 of its last 14 overall. Wednesday saw them deliver a resounding 20-point win in Toronto as for the third time in the last five games they held their opponent under 100 points. I'm looking for another strong defensive effort tonight in Minnesota. 

The Timberwolves have gone Over in five consecutive games, all of them losses which have seen the opposition average a ghastly 130.8 PPG on 54% shooting. It's six-game losing streak overall and while I'm not going to make the case for that to come to an end this evening, I will call for a better defensive effort than what we've been seeing. Don't those awful defensive numbers have to start improving simply by default? Not surprisingly, the O/U line is high for tonight's game. 

Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone Over. But the Clippers didn't have Kawhi Leonard or Paul George for any of those. This is a better defensive team now, one that should keep Minnesota in check tonight. While they've yet to face Minnesota this season, LA is 5-0 Under against the rest of the Northwest Division. Those turning on ESPN tonight expecting lots of points will end up disappointed. 10* Under Clippers/T'Wolves

10* Over Devils/Avalanche (9:05 ET): Colorado is a team I've been wanting to speak on for awhile now. I just haven't had the right opportunity. Winners of seven of their last eight games (beat a good Flyers team 3-1 Wednesday night), the Avs now have - by far - the best goal differential in the Western Conference. It's at +29, more than double what any other team in the West has. In fact, it's the best goal differential in the entire league right now. 

Judging by the line, it should be another easy win this evening as New Jersey comes to town. The Devils have the second fewest number of points in the entire league right now, ahead of only hideous Detroit. It's a six-game losing streak for NJ, who has been outscored by 37 goals in 30 games. Only two teams - the Red Wings and Sharks - have allowed more goals this year. So, with their top line back intact, you have to think the Avs are salivating a bit at the notion of how often they should be lighting the lamp tonight. 

In the L8 games alone, Colorado has scored 33 times. The only team in the league w/ more goals on the season is Washington. They average 4.0 per game at home and are getting a lot of shots to boot. On the flip side, New Jersey gives up lots of shots and goals (3.9 per game on the road). The only concern the Avalanche should have going into this game is how rusty goaltender Philipp Grubauer might be if he does indeed make his return. If he doesn't, backup Francouz may not be able to continue his strong recent play. The Avs are also down a defenseman (Makar). The Devils' goaltending situation is dire.  10* Over Devils/Avalanche

10* Indiana (7:35 ET): The Pacers just picked up a big conference win on Wednesday, beating Boston 122-117 here at home. They came from behind, overcoming a 10-point deficit and 44 points from Kemba Walker, in doing so. Now they'll be taking on a far less formidable foe in Atlanta, a team they have beaten six straight times. While the game is on the road, the spread should be a lot higher than where it opened at. The Hawks have surrendered 130+ points in three of the last four games. Lay the points. 

I faded Atlanta in its most recent game, Wednesday in Chicago, noting what a horrible spot it was for such a bad team. Just the night before, they'd blown a six-point lead in the final minute of regulation and lost to Miami in overtime. Sure enough, the Hawks came out like a defeated team on Wednesday, allowing the Bulls to shoot an insane 57.4% from the field. It was the Bulls' best game of the season, which isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of what's going on in Atlanta right now. This is a team that's won just twice in its last 15 games. 

The Hawks are very clearly one of the worst teams in the league this year. They are being outscored by 10 points every 100 possessions and are second to last (tied w/ Cleveland) in defensive efficiency. A couple weeks ago, they were able to stay within one point of the Pacers in Indiana, but that was an off-shooting night for the Pacers. Trae Young also went for a career-high 49 points. While that game may have been close, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Indiana to win by a larger margin tonight. They just scored 122 on one of the league's better defensive teams. 10* Indiana

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): Following a five-game losing streak, the Sharks fired coach Peter DeBoer. Tonight is their first game for interim Bob Boughner. It’s also a home game. The last four were all on the road. They face a weak Rangers team. Normally, after a coaching change, we see teams respond positively. That’s what I’m banking on here.

The Sharks were outscored 15-3 the L3 games, causing DeBoer to be shown the door. Prior to the five game slide, they’d won five of six. So they are capable. This is a better team at home, as you might expect. They’re due to start scoring as well. 

The Rangers have 33 points, one more than San Jose. But they couldn’t beat the last place Kings their last time out. That was the third time in five games they were held to one goal. This boils down to the sense of urgency for the Sharks. I also noticed they’ve lost three straight times to the Rangers, something that won’t sit well with them either. Sharks are the better team here. 8* San Jose

8* Over Maple Leafs/Flames (9:05 ET): After finishing first in the West last season, Calgary started slow this year. But a coaching change seems to have done the trick as they’ve gone 7-0-1 the last eight games to get to third in the Pacific. They’ve won six straight, scoring 24 goals in the process. The last four games have all gone Over. 

Toronto has notched nine goals in its last two games, both road wins. It’s a difference of three points between 2nd and 6th place in the Atlantic right now and only the top three are guaranteed to make the playoffs. So the Leafs will have to keep it up as they play their next two games in Alberta (Edmonton Saturday).

Toronto averages 3.5 goals per game on the road. Calgary is averaging 3.4 gpg on the road. Both are solid averages. Plus both are in good form offensively of late. It all adds up to a likely Over. 8* Over Maple Leafs/Flames

10* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): Back on Sunday, Grand Canyon failed in its attempt to become the first team to knock off (still) unbeaten Liberty. They lost 70-61, but did cover for me as 9.5-point dogs. Tonight the Antelopes face another hot team, that being Northern Iowa, who just knocked off Colorado. While off to a strong 9-1 SU and 7-1 ATS start to the season, I think this is a dangerous spot for UNI to be laying points. Their last five games have either been non-lined or seen them as underdogs. 

Grand Canyon went scoreless for about 6:30 in the second half Sunday, which ended up costing them the game. Poor shooting has been a problem for Dan Majerle’s team this year, but eventually these open shots will start falling. This is a team that’s been in every game but one (at San Diego State). They are 31-8 SU L39 home games. 

Northern Iowa’s win over Colorado was their first over a ranked opponent in the last seven tries. They were red-hot from the floor, especially from three-point range where they made over 50 (14 of 26). Can’t see that kind of shooting happening again in a second straight road game. It’s also their second road game in three days, a tough spot. Four of the Panthers wins so far have been by five points or less. 10* Grand Canyon

10* NY Jets (8:20 ET): With three games left in the season, the Jets have already improved on last year's season-win total. This despite a 1-7 SU start w/ QB Darnold missing time due to mono. The Jets were a team that I predicted would improve upon LY's win total. Granted, I thought they'd win have more wins than five at this point and maybe they would had Darnold not missed those three games (all losses). Certainly no one is expecting the Flyboys to win Thursday as they visit Baltimore to face the 11-2 Ravens. But I do think they can stay within the number. Take the points. 

The Ravens emerging as the NFL's best team is NOT something I saw coming. But here we are and they have the best record, best point differential and highest scoring offense. They are 3-0 SU against the league's other 10+ win teams. But the last two games have seen John Harbaugh's team cut it a little close as they needed a last second FG to get by the 49ers here at home, then last week it was just a 7-point win at Buffalo. But the biggest concern right now is the health of QB Lamar Jackson, who is listed as questionable for this game due to a quad injury. He announced Wednesday that he would play, but the short week does him no favors.

Another reason to be concerned about Jackson this week is that his left tackle Ronnie Stanley is listed as doubtful due to a concussion. The Ravens have only been double digit favorites three times and failed to cover twice. The Jets have won four of their last five and with the exception of that ugly loss in Cincinnati, they haven't been beaten by more than 14 pts since the MNF disaster vs. the Patriots. Note the Jets defense leads the league in yards per carry allowed (3.03) which is huge when facing the Ravens. This play stands regardless if Jackson plays or not. 10* NY Jets

8* Over Oilers/Wild (8:05 ET): Edmonton has led the Pacific Division much of the season, but they’ve been far from a dominant first place team. They’ve scored only one more goal than they’ve allowed. It was not a stellar defensive effort on Tuesday when they lost 6-3 to Carolina. Scoring hasn’t been a real concern. Only two teams in the Western Conference have more goals scored this year. But only three have conceded more.

It’s not difficult to figure Minnesota out. This is not a good road team as their record outside the Twin Cities is just 7-11-2. But at home, they are 7-1-3. They are averaging 3.55 goals per game here on home ice. That’s up from 2.6 on the road. But like the Oilers, the Wild give up their fair share. They are one of the three teams in the West that have allowed more goals than Edmonton. 8* Over Oilers/Wild

10* Over San Diego/CS-Fullerton (10:00 ET): If only my recent focus on targeting the few remaining unbeatens left in College Basketball had been more widespread. The number of teams now left without a loss is down to five (w/ two of them being Duquesne and Liberty). That's down almost 75% from where we were at this time last week. I haven't always gone against the "right" unbeatens, but the mindset proved correct. So did targeting teams that had either perfect Over or Under records. That list is also dwindling. Tonight we'll look to go Over on a team that has the most Unders w/o an Over this season, that being Cal State Fullerton. 

Cal State Fullerton is 8-0-1 Under so far, but the last two games have both threatened to go Over. It was a push (121.0) in a 62-59 loss at Pacific last Wednesday. The Titans lost by that identical score at home to Sacramento State on Saturday, but the total was one-half point higher (121.5), meaning another Under. Tonight they welcome in San Diego, who's not exactly an offensive juggernaut, but they'd gone Over in four straight before holding Holy Cross to 51 on Saturday. 

You'll notice this O/U line is noticeably higher than the last two games for CS-Fullerton. That's because they're up against an opponent that is a far bigger threat to score. San Diego's last game had their highest total yet. That made sense as they were coming off four straight Overs. Now the number is back down. The Over is 4-1 this season for the Torerors when the O/U line is 135 pts or less. I've got to think CS-Fullerton's overall shooting is going to improve. 10* Over San Diego/CS-Fullerton

8* Over Grizzlies/Suns (9:05 ET): Memphis has increased its scoring the last two games, which it will need to continue to do tonight as they face Phoenix. Scoring 112 wasn't enough Saturday night in Utah as they gave up 126. But 110 was enough Monday when they faced Golden State. But the Suns are far more prolific offensively than the Warriors. (Words I did not plan on typing this season!) It's going to take another strong offensive effort from a team that doesn't play much defense to win this one. Take the Over.

With so many of the "usual contenders" in the Western Conference (like Golden State and San Antonio) having down years, the Suns are one of the teams trying to step up and fill that playoff void. They currently have the NBA's second longest active playoff drought, but right now are in the top eight w/ an 11-12 SU record. It's tenuous though. Phoenix remains shaky defensively as the last five games have seen them allow 49.0% shooting and 117.6 PPG.

The Suns can score though. Only four teams are averaging more points per game. They should have no problems here against a Memphis side giving up over 115 PPG. Good news for playing the Over in this one is that both teams are in the top 10 in pace of play. The Over is 10-3 in Suns' home games, including 4-1 when the number is 230 pts or higher. 8* Over Grizzlies/Suns

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): I would consider this line to be too low even if the Hawks weren't playing in the second night of a back to back. But they are and the situation really couldn't be much worse as the Hawks really let one slip away last night. They led Miami by six points in the final minute of regulation, prompting Trae Young to proclaim "It's Over!" to the Heat bench. Already carrying the burden of being the guy the franchise got when it traded the draft rights to Luka Doncic, it's going to be tough for Young to live last night down. To add injury to insult, the final score ended up being 135-121, the NBA's largest margin of victory in an overtime game in over a decade! 

So that's what Atlanta is up against here. For Chicago, this is a great chance to pick up a much needed win. The Bulls have won just twice in the past eight games, but they've generally been losing close. The last four losses have been by a total of 12 points. They've lost their last three games, but that includes a two-point loss to Golden State (blew 9-pt 4Q lead), their own OT loss to Miami (led by as many as 11 in that one) and then a one-point loss to Toronto (blew 8-pt 4Q lead).

The Hawks are one team the Bulls have actually had some success against these last few years. They are 6-2 SU and ATS the last eight head to head meetings, including a 20-pt win down in Atlanta last month. The Bulls are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS when on a three-game losing streak this season. With the Hawks just 3-10 SU and giving up 123.2 PPG on the road, the line should be several points higher for this one. 10* Chicago

8* Under Lakers/Magic (7:05 ET): The Lakers have not lost a game outside of Staples Center all year. Their only "road" loss was the season opener against the Clippers where they were the designated "road team." Things couldn't be going better in LeBron's second year in LA as the team has won 21 of 23 games since that Opening Night to the Clippers. They're on a 4-0 SU/ATS streak entering tonight's game in Orlando and have averaged 139 PPG in the last two.

Orlando had won four of five going into Monday. But that's where they ran into Milwaukee, which was just the start of a brutal scheduling stretch. Now they get the best team from the West, which is followed by a visit from Houston and then a four-game West Coast swing. Remember what I discussed in the analysis for Magic-Bucks. Orlando is both 28th in scoring (3rd worst) and 3rd in points allowed. I had the Under in that last game and it cashed comfortably. The Lakers are not as prolific offensively as Milwaukee, despite what they may have done the L2 games.

The Lakers are also not too far behind Orlando in the defensive rankings as they give up the 5th fewest points per game in the league. So a battle of top five defensive teams sort of lends itself to an Under, no? Orlando is playing at the second slowest pace in the league, meaning their games average the second fewest number of total possessions per game. The fewer possessions a team has, the fewer chances it has to score. It's just that logical. The Magic also are still without one of their best scorers, Nikola Vucevic. 8* Under Lakers/Magic

8* Over Knicks/Blazers (10:05 ET): Once again, we find the Knicks rated near the bottom of the league in all important metrics. They've already made a coaching change, firing David Fizdale, but if you think that's going to lead to any sort of positive turnaround, think again. Sure, "true believers" will point to the fact the Knicks lost by only one in interim Mike Miller's debut, Saturday at home vs. Indiana (lost Fizdale's last two games by a combined 81 points). But the bottom line is this group has lost nine in a row overall and isn't going to get better for a LONG time. 

While the Knicks are one of the league's worst teams, Portland has to be considered among the most disappointing. A regular playoff participant in the Western Conference, the Blazers have started just 9-15 SU. Keep in mind they finished second in the West last year. Following B2B home losses, this should be an easy one, but I'm not about to lay this many points even if the Knicks are the opponent. But what I am confident in saying is Portland will shoot better tonight than it did in its last game. 

The Blazers made just 36.0% of its field goal attempts in the 108-96 loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday. That came after they gave up 136 points to the Lakers on Friday. They did shoot 56% in a win last week vs. Sacramento, so they are capable of putting together a big night offensively. That's what they should do here as the Knicks are pretty terrible defensively. But so are the Blazers, who actually allow MORE PPG (115.4) than the Knicks. Look for a high-scoring game here. 8* Over Knicks/Blazers

8* Baylor (9:00 ET): Butler (9-0) is one of eight unbeatens still standing, but tonight the Bulldogs are facing arguably their toughest test to date. They head down to Waco to face a 7-1 Baylor team that just knocked off another previously unbeaten team (Arizona) on Saturday. For Butler, this game comes on the heels of a hard fought home win over Florida. That win extended the nation's longest non-conference home win streak to 56 games. But the Bulldogs are just 6-17 SU their L23 on the road. I'm going to lay the points here.

A number of unbeatens fell on Saturday and soon enough there will be none left. For Butler, this just seems like the spot. Baylor has lost only once (by 3 at Washington) and comes in on their own six-game win streak, which includes wins over Villanova and Arizona. The most impressive thing about this Bears team is that they are allowing just 33.2% shooting at home, including 22.1% from three-point range. So for the first time all season, you can look for Butler to struggle to score tonight. Villanova is the only Baylor opponent to top 67 pts thus far. 

Butler hasn't let any opponent score more than 67 this season. However, the three times they have played away from home, they've allowed opponents to shoot 46.7%. Baylor is one of the few teams in the country not struggling with the new three-point distance as they're currently making 37.8% from behind the arc. Over the last three seasons, Butler has never won a game in which it was a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. That won't change here. 8* Baylor

10* Washington (7:05 ET): No one is going to claim that Charlotte's 9-16 SU record is anything to "crow about," but the fact of the matter is the Hornets are lucky to have won that many games. They've got a per game point differential of -7.7, which ranks 5th worst in the league. So expect the losses to pile up as the season progresses. They've dropped four of five, including a loss to a terrible Atlanta team on Saturday where they gave up 122 points. This is a another shot where we don't have to lay many points to fade this very bad team. 

Washington is interesting because they are very good offensively (top three in PPG) but also very bad defensively (allow most PPG). So you can always expect a wild game when this team takes the court. They gave up 135 pts their last time out, but that was to the Clippers. Tonight marks the first time this season that the Wizards have been installed as road favorites, which tells you all you need to know about Charlotte. 

Recently, the Wiz have been have had to face a number of the league better teams, which helps explain why they've lost seven of nine. This is a rare game that they should win. Again, it's telling that they are favored here despite having a slightly worse WL record than Charlotte. While both teams struggle defensively, Washington's offensive prowess should be enough to get the 'W' here. Three weeks ago, they beat the Hornets 125-118 in D.C. Expect a similar result tonight. 10* Washington

8* Over Grizzlies/Warriors (10:35 ET): Two bad teams meeting here. Memphis is 26th in both net efficiency rating and point differential. Golden State is 27th in net efficiency rating and 28th in point differential. With both of the Splash Brothers (Thompson, Curry) out, the Warriors are obviously a shell of their former championship selves. Memphis was expected to be bad.

At least the Grizzlies are getting some good news as rookie Ja Morant is probable to return tonight. That should aid them in the scoring department. Then again, defense has been more of an issue with the team giving up 117 PPG. Without Morant, they did shoot 53.1% on Saturday in Utah, but they let the Jazz shoot over 56% so that led to a 126-112 loss. 

Golden State is only averaging 94.2 points its last five games, which is something I never thought I'd be writing this season. Look for them to start scoring more tonight, however. They are averaging 107.2 PPG at home. Note those L5 games were all on the road. Like Memphis though, this team struggles defensively. They are allowing opponents to shoot almost 40% from three-point range. 8* Over Grizzlies/Warriors

analysis soon

8* Under Magic/Bucks (8:05 ET): Milwaukee looks downright unstoppable right now as their only loss since November 1st came at Utah in the second game of a back to back. Since then, they've won 13 straight and are now outscoring teams by over 13 PPG for the year. This is the best team in basketball. Friday, they beat the Clippers here at home by 28 points! 

Orlando's season got off to a bit of a rocky start as they failed to score 100 points in any of the first seven games. Since then, they've gotten into somewhat of a groove as they'll bring a four game win streak into tonight. Their most recent win was an ugly 93-87 decision in Cleveland where they were 2.5-point favorites. They shot just 39% and it was the 11th time this year they were held below 100 points.

The Magic have the unique distinction of having scored the third fewest points in the league while also allowing the second fewest. It's a little surprising then that they've still gone Over in half their games. Milwaukee is no slouch defensively either as they've held three of the last four opponents below 100 points. They are actually #1 in the league in defensive efficiency by a pretty comfortable margin. So look for this one to stay Under the total. 8* Under Magic/Bucks

8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I just don't see how the Pelicans can be favored over anybody right now. They've lost eight in a row w/ three of those coming by at least 20 points. The most recent was the worst one yet as they lost by 46 in Dallas Saturday. They are 1-6-1 ATS during the eight-game SU losing streak. Incredibly, that hasn't stopped oddsmakers from favoring them for the third time in the last five games. Detroit might not be a good road team, but they are better than the Pelicans. 

The Pistons have won three of four with the only loss coming to Milwaukee. Two of the wins were blowouts (San Antonio, Cleveland), then they rallied to beat Indiana 108-101 on Friday. With games against Dallas and Houston coming up, winning here is a must. Note that despite a 9-14 SU record, the Pistons have both a positive point differential and net efficiency rating this year. 

New Orleans' YTD point differential and their net efficiency rating are both among the worst in the league. Only five teams have been outscored by a wider margin overall. They have the third worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. I've got them rated as the 7th worst team in my own personal power ratings. Injuries have been rampant. Just not a good team and they shouldn't be favored here. 8* Detroit

10* Columbia (7:00 ET): Since Saturday, the list of unbeaten teams has fallen from 16 to 8 w/ DePaul being the latest victim. Of the eight remaining unbeatens, we have Duquesne rated the weakest. The Dukes are in action Monday, hosting Columbia. The Dukes have been favored in all seven games so far, as they are tonight, but this is a team that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency. No other unbeaten ranks lower than 78th in that category.

Columbia is just 3-7. This is the second time in the last three games that they are facing an unbeaten foe. Last Monday it was Delaware. They lost by eight to the Blue Hens, who have since tasted defeat for the first time. On Friday, the Lions lost by two at Bryant as they turned it over in the final seconds, which led to the game winning basket. Incredibly, that was Columbia’s third loss by exactly two points already this year. I feel they are better than their record. 

Will the Ivy League contingent pull the outright upset here? Not sure. But it’s definitely worth a try plus the points. They’ve faced a tougher schedule than Duquesne. I mentioned earlier that the Dukes have been favored in every game. Well, they are just 3-4 ATS including 0-2 ATS when laying double digits. 10* Columbia

10* LA Rams (8:20 ET): The line move here is certainly interesting as it would seem to support my own previously stated skepticism of Seattle. The Seahawks moved up to the #1 spot in the NFC w/ Monday's 37-30 win over Minnesota. They are now 10-2 SU, but that record comes with a bit of an asterisk as they are 9-1 in one-score games. That's an awful lot of good luck as there are four NFC teams (including 6-7 Dallas) that have better YTD point differentials. Bottom line is Seattle is "due" to drop one and we don't see them sweeping the season series from the Rams, who have revenge for a 30-29 loss back in Week 5, which was also in primetime. 

The season appeared to be getting away from the Rams when they were blown out 45-6 by Baltimore in their own Monday night appearance. But they bounced back last week with one of their most complete efforts of 2019. They beat the Cardinals 34-7 w/ a 549-198 edge in total yards. A defense, which had been badly gashed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, held Arizona to just 3.2 yards per play. I just can't see the Rams losing B2B primetime home games. Nor can I see the Seahawks winning outright for a fourth time on the road as an underdog. From a scheduling perspective, the Rams have the edge as Seattle is working on a short week. 

For that Week 5 meeting, Seattle was only a 1.5-pt favorite at home. So the oddsmakers have definitely adjusted, but I think they've overreacted. Again, the Seahawks having all these close wins is simply not a sustainable blueprint for success. The Rams were a missed 44-yard FG away from taking that first meeting. They finished w/ slightly more total yards. A big difference between then and now is you can expect a bigger workload from RB Todd Gurley. The Rams defense has allowed 17 pts or less in five of the last six games, the loss to Baltimore two weeks ago being the only exception. 10* LA Rams

10* Over Sabres/Oilers (8:05 ET): Though they continue to lead the Pacific Division, Edmonton has been struggling to score recently. In a five-game stretch where they are just 2-3 (including a bad 5-2 home loss to lowly Ottawa), they have scored a total of just 10 goals. But reinforcements are on their way as the club's top line figures to be back on the ice together for the first time in four games. Also, second line center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is expected back here as well. You can look for the Oilers to get back on track tonight offensively. 

It also helps that they are facing Buffalo. The Sabres lost in overtime last night, 6-5. It was their second straight one-goal loss here in Western Canada as they fell 4-3 in Calgary on Thursday. Three of the Sabres last four road games have seen them allow at least four goals and they are giving up 3.5 gpg on the road for the year. On the bright side, they've scored 22 goals the last five games and 15 in the last three. So tonight's game has all the makings of a wild shootout. 

The Oilers won both times they played the Sabres last year. They scored 11 goals in the two games. They are averaging 3.4 gpg at home this season. With the Sabres having scored five or more goals four times in the last eight games, I am all aboard the Over tonight. 10* Over Sabres/Oilers

10* Grand Canyon (6:30 ET): What would your reaction be if I told you that Liberty is the team w/ the best SU record in the country? You'd probably be surprised, right? Well, it's the case as the Flames were the first team in the country to get to 10 wins w/o a loss. Tonight they put that unblemished mark on the line against Grand Canyon University. Yesterday saw FIVE unbeatens fall in College Hoops, leaving us w/ just nine left. My view is a couple more are likely to fall this week, this Liberty team being one of them. Take the points here. 

Looking at Liberty's 10-0 SU record, they've been favored eight times and played two non-board teams. So them being unbeaten was actually expected from the oddsmakers' perspective. The Flames have yet to play anyone of any real substance and their last two opponents - Kentucky Xian and Trinity Baptist - hardly even qualify as real College Basketball teams. While they won those two games by a combined 105 pts, not all the news was good. Guard Caleb Homesley, who is second on the team in scoring and first in assists, suffered a hamstring injury. He may not be able to go tonight. 

Grand Canyon is just 4-6, but they've stepped up and taken on some tougher teams like Illinois and San Diego State. Earlier this week, the Antelopes earned a 78-67 OT win over Mt St Mary's here at home. This is a holiday tournament w/ GCU as the host, so there's no better way to make an impact than by knocking off one of the nine unbeatens left in College Hoops. I'm just not a believer in Liberty's ability to remain unbeaten. 10* Grand Canyon

10* Miami (6:05 ET): The Heat have firmly established themselves among the top six teams in the Eastern Conference. You have to figure Milwaukee is going to finish first. But after that, the order of Miami, Boston, Toronto, Philadelphia and Indiana is anyone's guess. Something I do feel comfortable in saying is you shouldn't expect Chicago to be entering that discussion anytime soon. The Bulls foolishly thought they were playoff contenders entering this season. But it's been "same old, same ol" as they come into Sunday sporting an 8-15 SU record. Lay the points here. 

The Bulls lost outright as a favorite their last time out. It was at home to Golden State, one of the worst teams in the league (doesn't that still sound odd to say!). The Bulls let the Warriors shoot 53.5%. Prior to that loss, Chicago had actually won B2B games. But looking at the slew of recent opponents, this is a big step up in class. The Bulls last seven games have all come against losing teams. That includes TWO losses to Golden State. The last time they faced a team with a winning record was November 22nd. It was the Heat, oddly enough. The Bulls lost by eight - at home. 

At the time, that was Miami's fifth straight win. They've now won 10 of 13 overall. As a favorite, the Heat are 9-2 ATS. They are also 9-0 SU at home, 7-1-1 ATS. Boston and Philadelphia are the only other teams yet to lose at home. It would be one thing if the Heat were just winning at home. But they're outscoring opponents here by an incredible 17.1 PPG! That's several points better than the two other unbeaten teams at home. Keep in mind the Heat the entire way the last time they faced the Bulls. 10* Miami

10* Under Titans/Raiders (4:25 ET): Since taking over for the ineffective Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill has led the Titans to a 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) record and an average of almost 30 PPG. But before we go crediting this journeyman too much, let's note Tennessee's scoring average has not been all the offense's doing. Special teams and defense have both contributed to the scoring as well and that's something you cannot count on every game. Facing a Raiders team that has scored a grand total of 29 points its last three games, look for the Titans' 6-0 Over streak to end Sunday. 

So like I said, Tannehill has certainly had ample assistance since becoming the Titans' starting QB. Five weeks ago vs. Tampa Bay, the offense had two TD drives that started inside the opponents' 10-yard line. Three weeks ago, Tennessee had no business beating Kansas City, but got a defensive TD + a FG block that set up the GW score. Against Jacksonville two weeks ago, there was a six play sequence where they scored FOUR touchdowns, which is an insane occurrence. Last week's game vs. Indianapolis was tied 17-17 going into the final five minutes, but the Titans returned a blocked FG for a TD, then sent the game Over w/ a TD off a Colts turnover. The offense gained less than 300 total yards in the 31-17 victory.

Oakland has barely done any scoring of late. They rank last in the league the L3 weeks in points per drive at 0.85. This just doesn't seem like the time or place for Derek Carr and company to get back on track as they are facing the league's 7th best scoring defense (19.5 PPG allowed). Tennessee has held nine of its 12 opponents to 20 points or less this season. RB Josh Jacobs just recently revealed he's been playing with a fractured shoulder, so expect him to be less effective moving forward, especially with the right side of the Raiders' offensive line also banged up. 10* Under Titans/Raiders 

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Baltimore has established itself as the best team in the league in many people's eyes, including my own. However, there comes a time when the pointspread eventually catches up w/ you and for the Ravens, it was last week when they failed to cover in a 20-17 win over the 49ers. That snapped a 5-game ATS win streak, but didn't stop oddsmakers from asking them to lay a pretty big number on the road this week to a good Buffalo team. My own power rankings say this spread should be closer to a "pick 'em," so there's plenty of value on the dog. 

I took the Bills on Thanksgiving as they upset the Cowboys, 26-15 as a six-point road dog. In my analysis for that game, I talked about how many continue to hold Buffalo's weak scheduled against them. But the bottom line is that this team now has a top 6 point differential (+69). The defense is allowing just 15.7 PPG, fewer than Baltimore and third best in the entire league. Only once this season have the Bills allowed more than 21 pts in a game. This is a team uniquely suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense. The Bills are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season, winning three of those games outright. 

Baltimore was held to just 283 total yards last week by San Francisco and outgained substantially on a per play basis. While much will be made of the Bills defense's susceptibility to the run, they've only allowed 211 yards rushing (total!) the L3 weeks. Some of that can be attributed to being ahead and forcing the opponent to pass, but even the Cowboys' ground game could only muster 103 yards against them. Having a few extra days to prepare is also huge for this Bills defense. 8* Buffalo

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The Bucs have finally "woken up" and started to play better. They've won B2B games by double digits, beating the Falcons and Jaguars, both on the road. Now they try for that elusive cover at home. Prior to winning each of the L2 weeks, TB had failed to cover seven straight games. But as noted when I made them a *10* ULTIMATE POWER release two weeks ago, there's plenty of talent here and the team would have a better overall record had it not shot themselves in the foot on a regular basis. I think they'll continue their strong play at home this week. Lay the short number. 

Speaking of shooting itself in the foot, the Colts really let one get away last week vs. Tennessee. An Adam Vinateri FG attempt was blocked and returned for the game-winning TD. It was the Colts' fourth loss in the last five games. Vinateri won't play this week, which is probably for the best as he's been downright awful. But WR T.Y. Hilton's absence looms large. The team is 1-4 ATS w/o him as opposed to 6-1-1 ATS when he suits up. This Colts' offense hasn't done much in the way of scoring the L2 games, scoring 17 pts each time in defeat.

Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS at home this year. They are the only team in the league yet to cover a game at home. Note those records include a "home game" in London. The Bucs have performed better on a per play basis this year than have the Colts. They do deserve to be the favorite here as Colts HC Frank Reich is just 3-8-1 ATS against teams w/ losing records. Against non-division foes this year, the Colts are just 2-5 SU. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Phoenix (8:05 ET): It's okay to be skeptical of the Suns. After all, this is a team that's finished dead last in the Western Conference each of the last three seasons. But they are clearly improved now and what's most impressive about that is they're doing it without the services of the suspended Deandre Ayton, last season #1 overall draft choice. Right now, the Suns project to be a better than .500 team by season's end and have the league's 12th best point differential. If that holds, they could likely snap what is the league's 2nd longest playoff drought. 

Houston is obviously one of the "big boys" in the Western Conference and their goals are a lot different than those of tonight's opponent. After somewhat of a rough start to this season, the Rockets clearly have gotten their act together as they've won 11 of their last 15 games. James Harden and Russell Westbrook form a deadly scoring combo and the team just won in Toronto Thursday night, something that is not easy to do. But tonight marks just the 4th time this year that the Rockets have been asked to lay double digits. The previous two were against Atlanta and Golden State, the two worst teams in the league. Phoenix is a much higher class opponent. 

The Suns have not beaten the Rockets since April 2016, losing the last 11 head to head matchups. But all of those came when they were one of the league's bottom-feeders. Tonight is a chance to prove themselves as a legit playoff contender as they look to finish a four-game road trip at 3-1 SU. Not saying Phoenix will win tonight, but they should at least keep it close. This line is several points off from where own power rankings say it should be at. 8* Phoenix

8* Virginia (7:30 ET): After what they did for me last week, how could I not come back with the Hoos here? As my *10* College Football Game of the Year last Friday, they ended what had been a 15-year losing streak to rival Va Tech w/ an outright 39-30 win as 2.5-point dogs. Thus all seven teams in the ACC Coastal have now won the division in the last 7 years. Hopefully, Virginia is not just "happy to be here" as defending Nat'l Champ Clemson awaits them in the Conference Championship Game. I'm willing to bank on that NOT being the case and will grab a HUGE number.

Anyone who follows my plays knows I have no loyalty to any team. This play is clearly more about the number than what Virginia did last week. It's actually the second year in a row Clemson comes into the ACC Title Game as a four-TD favorite. They covered last year, beating Pitt 42-10, but that was an inferior foe to what they'll be facing here. Yes, the #3 ranked Tigers have destroyed everything in their path the last two months, winning seven straight by an average of more than 41 PPG. Their only ATS loss during that stretch was to FCS Wofford as they were laying 49 in a 45-point win. But Virginia is the strongest team Clemson will have faced these L2 months. 

It has not always been pretty for Virginia, but they've averaged over 41 PPG during a current four-game win streak. Their largest loss (in terms of margin) this season was 15 to Notre Dame and that was a game that they actually led at the half. They still ended up outgaining the Fighting Irish, but could not overcome five turnovers, one of which was a fumble returned for a touchdown. The other two Cavaliers' losses were by 7 and 9 points. As we saw last week, QB Bryce Perkins is a playmaker. Clemson doesn't need "style points" here. They just need to win. Look for the dog to stay within the number. 8* Virginia

10* Over Arkansas/Western Kentucky (7:30 ET): Arkansas has two perfect streaks going coming into tonight's game w/ WKU. They are 8-0 straight up and also 8-0 Under to start the season. The former streak is their best start since the 1997-98 season when they were still only a couple years removed from winning the National Championship. But the latter streak is what we're concerned with here as no team has gone Under more w/o an Over this season. After last night, there are only four teams in the country that have not gone Over or at least pushed on the total.

This will be the second time the Razorbacks have left campus this year. The first was a 62-61 win over Georgia Tech last week where they did not cover as a 2.5-point road favorite. Sound familiar? After failing to cover that game, the Hogs have gone 0-2 ATS since as they won close against both Northern Kentucky and Austin Peay in Fayatteville. While they are allowing only 61 PPG so far, that number will be severely challenged here by a Western Kentucky team that's averaging 79.6 PPG overall, including 94.0 at home. The Hilltoppers are shooting over 50% for the year. 

These teams met last season, almost one year ago to the date. WKU pulled a 78-77 upset in Fayatteville as an 11-pt dog. The game stayed Under by one-half points (total was 155.5). As you can see, there's been a noticeable drop in the O/U line for tonight's contest and that's certainly owed to how Arkansas has opened the season. After three straight games with less than stellar shooting, I think the Razorbacks are likely to get back on track offensively tonight. The only WKU games to stay Under this year all had totals higher than this one. 10* Over Arkansas/Western Kentucky

10* Georgia (4:00 ET): What separates this game from the two other Conference Championship Games involving unbeaten teams (Big 10, ACC) is that the underdog also happens to be playing for a chance to make the College Football playoff. #4 Georgia will be in the CFP w/ a win Saturday over LSU. While that's "easier said than done," I don't think the gap between these two SEC schools is as large as the oddsmakers seem to believe. I've got the line closer to a field goal than a touchdown and that's some pretty substantial value on a side that has everything to gain. Take the points.

Georgia's only loss this year was in double overtime to South Carolina. You may recall that I was on the right side of that one. However, let it be noted that the Bulldogs were -4 in turnovers in that game, negating a rather huge 468-297 edge in total yardage. So they easily could be undefeated coming into this game, just like LSU. Were that the case, this line would be a whole lot shorter. The Bulldogs' defense has a claim to be the best in the country as it gives up only 10.3 PPG (2nd best behind Clemson). It's a better defense than Alabama and the best LSU will have faced all year. Offensively, UGA is going to have to run the ball effectively here. They should considering LSU has allowed running backs to average more than 6.0 YPC the L5 games. 

There's no denying how good LSU is, but I just don't think they are a full TD better than Georgia on a neutral field. Obviously, it's pretty rare for Georgia to be an underdog. They are 3-0 ATS in that role under HC Kirby Smart. Remember that LSU's only two "comparable" opponents would be Bama and Auburn and the Tigers only won those games by a combined eight points. This is Georgia's third straight year playing for the SEC Title, which is a bit of an advantage as well. They also have big time revenge for an ugly 36-13 loss in Baton Rouge last year where they actually came in as a 7-point road favorite. Special teams edge goes to the underdog here as well. 10* Georgia

10* Florida Atlantic (1:30 ET): UAB should be commended for a remarkable "rebirth." Three years ago, there wasn't even a football program! But after two years of suspending operations, HC Bill Clark has helped lead one of the great stories in College Football. Over the last three seasons, the Blazers have won 8, 11 and 9 games. This is the second year in a row they are playing for the C-USA Championship. They won it last year, beating Middle Tennessee 27-25 as a 1-pt home dog. But this year they have to travel to face Florida Atlantic, who won this game two years ago. 

FAU had a down year in 2018, winning only five games. But Lane Kiffin has the Owls right back where they were in 2017. Well, maybe they aren't quite as good as that team, but they have blown through the conference schedule. They are 7-1 SU in C-USA play, outscoring teams by 17.3 points per game. Since losing to Marshall on 10.18, the Owls have won five straight - all by double digits. Twice in the regular season they were a big play for me, once against Charlotte and the other against Western Kentucky. Both times they were drastically undervalued, which is again the case here. 

While UAB should be lauded for what it has accomplished these last three seasons, the fact is they played arguably the weakest schedule in the entire country this year. They faced only four bowl teams (Western Kentucky, Tennessee, Southern Miss, La Tech) and the only one they beat (La Tech) was dealing w/ a bunch of suspensions. Plus that was the only one of the four games that was at home. In six road games during the regular season, the Blazers averaged only 18.2 PPG. Other than Marshall, FAU's only other losses were to Ohio St and UCF, the first two games of the season. The Owls are again the class of C-USA and will demonstrate that on Saturday. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Under CS Northridge/Portland State (10:30 ET): Cal State Northridge will be going for a 2-0 sweep in the city of Portland this week. Wednesday night, they surprised me by beating Portland U 71-64 as a five-point dog. The Matadors started the year 0-7, but have now won two straight. (Last weekend they beat Fresno State 73-72). They've ended a streak, but now it's time for Portland State to do the same. The Vikings have gone Over in every game this year. Keeping w/ the theme of this three-pack, we will go Under tonight. 

Full disclosure -- I had Portland against CS Northridge Wednesday. Turns out I had reason to be suspicious of the short line w/ the Matadors pulling the outright upset. Neither team shot well (CSN 38.7%, Portland 32.7%), but the final score was aided by a combined 37 made free throws. While the Over is 6-3 so far in Cal State Northridge games, tonight's total is the highest they will have faced. This is not a great shooting team. 

Portland State is 7-0 Over, but this total also marks a new season-high for them. Like Cal State Northridge, the hosts don't shoot well. Especially from three-point range where they are a dreadful 30.1% for the year and 18.2% at home. After allowing six of its last seven opponents to shoot at least 50% from the floor, CS-Northridge will be a welcome opponent for the Vikings tonight. 8* Under CS Northridge-Portland State

analysis soon

10* Oregon (8:00 ET): Since losing at USC on a Friday night (a result I was on the right side of!), Utah has won eight in a row - both SU and ATS - and only once during that win streak has the final margin been LESS than 25 points. But they've really not had to face many quality opponents either. Only three of the teams they played went on to become bowl eligible and none won more than seven regular season games. The one close game they did play over the L2 months was at Washington where they had to rally for a 33-28 win as three-point chalk. The Utes did not face North Division Champ Oregon in the regular season. 

Oregon actually wrapped up its division sooner than Utah, despite having the inferior overall record. Maybe that says something about the North, but it actually had more teams finish bowl eligible than the South did. The Ducks' two losses this year have been by a total of nine points and one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) saw them in the lead for 59+ minutes. There is no shame in losing to Auburn nor Arizona State, who got Oregon two weeks ago in what was my Pac 12 Game of the Year. While Utah can lay claim to having beat ASU 21-3, the Ducks can claim to have beaten USC 56-24 and that was on the road. (Utah got ASU at home). 

Utah lost the Pac 12 Championship Game last year (10-3 to Washington), so that'll serve as extra motivation. Not to mention a win here would place them in the discussion for the College Football Playoff. But you can't discount an Oregon side that has been an underdog just one time this year (the Auburn game) and gives up only 15.8 PPG. The Utes were fortunate to extend their ATS win streak last week as they scored late to cover the 29-point spot against Colorado. Oregon will easily be Utah's toughest opponent to date while the Ducks have the confidence knowing they should have beaten a comparable Auburn team (that just beat Alabama). Take the points. 10* Oregon 

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Two records that are applicable to this matchup make little sense to me. One is that the Thunder are 0-8 ATS the last 8 meetings with the T'wolves. For most of that timeframe, OKC has been the better team. It would be one thing if they were winning and not covering, but they are also 2-6 straight up in those eight games. The other record that has me "scratching my head" is Minnesota's 7-3 SU road record this year. They are only 3-7 SU at home. Normally, you would not see a home vs. road split like that. I'm laying the points here. 

My guess is you're going to start to see that home vs. road split start to "even out" for Minnesota. In fact, it's already happening as Wednesday night they lost in Dallas, 121-114, even with the Mavs being in the second night of a back to back. Two key players for Minnesota are on the injured list here - Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) and Andrew Wiggins (thumb). The status of the latter seems more questionable for tonight. Monitor the injury situations, but regardless this play stands. The T'Wolves have dropped six of nine with Towns and Wiggins in the lineup and I don't like them here getting such a short number. 

Everyone expected Oklahoma City to drop precipitously in the standings this year due to losing both Paul George and Russell Westbrook. But they've been surprisingly competitive for HC Billy Donovan. The Thunder have a nearly identical point differential compared to the T'wolves and a slightly better net efficiency rating. So I agree with them being a favorite here.  They've won 6 of the 7 times they've been a favorite this year. They are long overdue to cover a spread against Minnesota. 10* Oklahoma City

7* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The last time the Penguins took the ice, I made them my 10* Game of the Week. They made short work of the Blues, winning 3-0 and gaining a measure of revenge for a loss in St. Louis the game prior. Despite a myriad of injuries, the most notable one being to Sidney Crosby, the Pens have stayed strong. Their YTD goal differential of +18 is third best in the Eastern Conference. They are only 5th in the Metropolitan Division right now, but that goal differential is slightly better than tonight's opponent despite the Coyotes leading the Pacific. Back Pittsburgh again tonight. 

Winning in shutout fashion Wednesday was certainly a welcome reprieve for a Penguins team that had just given up 16 goals its previous three games. But the goals allowed side of the ledger has not been an issue here at the Igloo where they are only allowing 2.3 gpg. Scoring is also not an issue as they average 3.6 gpg. Only two teams in the league have a better home goal differential (Boston, Philadelphia). I also like Pittsburgh's 10-4 SU record vs. the Western Conference. 

Arizona has Darcy Keumper, who leads the league in both save percentage (.937) and goals against average (1.92). He made 28 saves in last night's 3-1 win at Philadelphia. But with this being a back to back, there's a decent chance Keumper may not be back between the pipes tonight. Regardless, the Coyotes were fortunate to win last night's game as they only managed 18 shots on goal. The 'Yotes have lost the last two times they've been in a back to back. Pittsburgh is 7-0-2 its last nine home games and has a clear edge here. 7* Pittsburgh

8* Under TN Martin/Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Tennessee-Martin has gone Over in every game this year, but you can look for that streak to come to an end tonight in Mt. Pleasant. While it's true Central Michigan is the highest scoring team in the country right now (95.1 PPG) by a pretty wide margin, their presence in the matchup obviously results in a much higher than normal O/U line for TN Martin. The O/U line for tonight is 15 pts higher than any of the Skyhawks' previous six lined games. Take the Under. 

Central Michigan comes in at 6-2 SU with all six wins coming here at home. They probably should be 7-1, but blew an 18-pt halftime lead at DePaul (who is still undefeated, mind you), a result I'm still bitter over as the Chippewas were my Game of the Month that day and wound up not even covering (lost by 13). They rebounded nicely w/ an 88-72 win over Youngstown State Saturday. That makes two games in a row that would not have gone Over tonight's total. While the Chippewas have gone over 100 pts four times, three of those were against non-board teams and the other was vs. Miss Valley State, who is the worst D-I team. 

Half of Central Michigan's games would not have gone Over tonight's total. If the number is high for them, then imagine what we're dealing w/ for TN Martin. None of the Skyhawks' last four games would have gone Over this number either. They just competed down in Cancun, losing to Gardner-Webb, but then beating Boston U. Three times this year, TN Martin has been held to 67 points or less. Defensively, they have issues, which is a concern against an opponent like CMU. But note road teams are shooting just 40.8% here in Mt Pleasant. The road team will be kept in check offensively in this one and that keeps the game Under the total. 8* Under TN Martin/Central Michigan

10* Under Cowboys/Bears (8:20 ET): Both teams are 6-6 SU, which seems crazy given the negativity surrounding the respective franchises. I faded Dallas on Thanksgiving, citing the rather toxic situation that exists between coach (Jason Garrett) and owner (Jerry Jones) right now. Sure there's plenty of talent on the field. The Cowboys also boast the league's 5th best point differential (+74). But that's largely been undone by the fact they are also 0-4 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less, a stark contrast to last season when they were a league-best 9-2 SU in that situation. 

Chicago won 12 games last season (and the division), making them one of the favorites in the NFC coming into 2019. QB Mitch Trubisky was even getting consideration as a potential MVP candidate by bettors, which is downright laughable in retrospect. But the Bears have regressed badly, which really isn't all that shocking and it's easy to pinpoint why. The offense, Trubisky in particular, have been BRUTAL. They come in averaging just 17.7 PPG, which is 27th in the league and none of the teams that rank below them have more than four wins. Luckily, they also have a defense that is allowing 17.3 PPG (4th best). 

The 24 pts scored by the Bears last week in the win over Detroit actually marked a six-week high for them. I had the Over, but the number was really low thanks to the Lions' iffy QB situation. Considering Chicago has scored more than 25 pts only only time all season - and it was Wk 3 on a terrible Washington team - I'd say they aren't much of a threat to score a ton of points Thursday night. Dallas is only allowing 19.7 PPG. As for the Cowboys' offense, despite all that talent, they've scored all of 24 pts the L2 games combined. Granted, that was facing two of the top three scoring defenses in the NFL, but as stated above, the Bears rank 4th in that department. 10* Under Cowboys/Bears 

10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Wizards have definitely had their share of struggles (especially on the defensive end) to start the year, but I don't think the Sixers should be laying this many points. They may be undefeated at home (10-0!), but Philadelphia has gone just 5-6 on the road. They have given up more points than they've scored on the road and while they'll enter tonight on a four-game winning streak, three of those four wins were by six points or less. Take the points. 

Washington obviously needs to get its act together defensively if it wants to be taken seriously. They are allowing 122.9 points per game, which is easily the most in the league. That would also be the most points allowed per game by any team since the 1980's. Incredibly, there have already been seven games this season where the Wizards scored 120+ pts and LOST! Despite this, they make for a good underdog by averaging 118.9 PPG, third most in the NBA. Bradley Beal leads the way by averaging 28.9 PPG himself. The Wiz are 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. 

Philadelphia will then obviously need to score a lot to cover the spread tonight. While Washington's defense is definitely questionable, there's been only one time all season that the 76ers have scored 120+ in a game. Over the L5 games, they are averaging just 103.2 PPG. There have been two previous times when Washington has lost three in a row. Both times they won and covered the next time out. Bottom line is they'll score enough to cover the number here. 10* Washington

8* Portland (10:00 ET): Is this line a joke? I'm being serious when asking that question. Cal State Northridge just won its first game, beating Fresno State by a single point (73-72) as seven-point home underdogs. The Matadors had opened the year 0-7 and were 0-5 ATS the first five games. Only one of those losses was by single digits. Portland isn't Gonzaga (or even San Francisco for that matter!), but the WCC contingent should win rather easily at home tonight. Lay the short number.

Portland's only loss so far was down at USC where they were a 23-point dog. Since then, they've rattled off five consecutive victories, all of them coming by fairly comfortable margins. Sunday's 65-56 triumph at the expense of Incarnate Word was the first game all year that the Pilots failed to cover. The reason for the ATS loss was a slow start as the Pilots actually trailed at halftime. But they were caught laying a bigger number than they are tonight, so a similar slow start (if that even happens) wouldn't be an issue. 

Hopefully Portland plays well from start to finish. They certainly should. CS-Northridge is allowing 88.1 PPG and is one of the worst defensive teams in the country right now. They are 321st in defensive efficiency (there are only 353 D-I schools) and only two teams are allowing more points per game. In other words, the home team should have a big offensive night. At home, the Pilots are 4-0 SU so far, shooting 50.2% themselves while allowing an opposing FG% of just 34.2. Last year, Portland was able to beat CS-Northridge on the road. They should do the same at home. 8* Portland

analysis soon

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Penguins have dropped two in a row, one of those coming to the team they're facing tonight, St. Louis. The front end of this home and home took place in St. Louis with the Blues walking away the victors by a score of 5-2. The Pens lost by that same score the night before in Columbus. But now they are back home and have the advantage of three days off while St. Louis had to play a game in Chicago Monday night. I'm calling for revenge here. 

St. Louis is hot right now. The defending Stanley Cup Champs have won four straight and continue to lead the Central Division w/ 42 points. The win streak has even opened up a 7-point gap between them and the rest of the field. A 10-2-3 SU road record is "nothing to sneeze at," especially considering some of the places they've recently won at (Tampa Bay, Dallas). But the Blues are still being outshot on the year, a troubling sign as they can't continue to convert on 11.6% of their shot attempts like they have the L5 games. 

Also, those same L5 games have seen Blues' goalies post a .949 save percentage. Compare that to the .873 posted by Pittsburgh during the same time. Over the course of the season, the Blues' save percentage on the road is identical to that of the Penguins at home. The teams also have identical YTD goal differentials (+15). There are injuries, but the last time Pittsburgh took the ice at home, they scored 8 goals. They've won three in a row at home. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Over Pacers/Thunder (8:05 ET): Indiana has cemented itself as one of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference by winning 13 of 17. After taking a rare loss on Saturday (119-116 at Philadelphia), they bounced back w/ a relatively easy 117-104 victory over a bad Memphis team. That was also their 6th win in the L7 games, a stretch that has seen them shoot the ball very well. What's remarkable about the offensive effort is that they are lacking in a "go-to" scorer. (Victor Oladipo still out). Can they hot shooting continue tonight in OKC? I think so. Take the Over.

Over those last seven games, the Pacers have scored at least 111 points six times. They are shooting above 50% in the last five. While some might be looking at tonight as the game where they finally "cool off," Oklahoma City is not all that impressive defensively. Twice in the last five games, the Thunder allowed 130 points. While they are coming off a pair of Unders against New Orleans (won both games), look for something different here. There's a notable increase in offense when OKC is at home. They average 111.7 PPG on 48.1% shooting, including 37.1% from 3-pt range. 

That uptick offense should lead to a vastly different result from what we saw in Indiana last month when these teams met. In a 111-85 Pacers' rout, the teams combined to miss 35 of 48 three-point attempts. The Thunder shot just 35.8% for the game. The increase in offense that I'm anticipating tonight may not mean a win for the Thunder, but they should at least "hold their own" when it comes to scoring. This total is a lot lower than either game vs. the Pelicans. The L6 head to head meetings have all gone Under, but this one changes that. 10* Over Pacers/Thunder

8* Purdue (7:15 ET): This is an interesting number as Purdue opened as the favorite, but the line has swung in Virginia's direction and I think there's a good shot the Hoos go off as the favorite at tipoff. Before you go chastising the oddsmakers for how they set the line, note that Purdue's 4-3 SU record is highly misleading as the three games they lost were all close. Most still consider the Boilermakers to be one of the best teams in America, most notably the KenPom rankings, which have them at 13th! I'll call for them to hand Virginia what would only its 4th loss since the start of last season! 

Virginia is 7-0 and winning games in its typical fashion. Tony Bennett's defense is allowing a minuscule 40.3 points per game so far, which is impressive even by its yearly standard. They just held Maine to 26 points (for the game!) last week. No one has scored more than 55 and the next highest point total they allowed was 46! But the competition also hasn't exactly been fierce. Note the Cavaliers are actually 0-5 ATS the L5 games because they are only averaging 55.1 PPG themselves. 

 They may not be as stout as Virginia, but Purdue is giving up just 58.4 PPG. They are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. This game figures to be a "rock fight." But don't discount the home court advantage. The Boilermakers have won 34 of their last 36 games in West Lafayette. A 63-60 loss over the weekend to Florida State may have dropped them to 1-5 SU L6 games vs. the ACC, but this is a massive revenge game for a five-point loss in LY's Elite 8 where Virginia had to make a last-second 3-pointer to force OT. This year, the Cavaliers are really struggling from behind the new 3-pt line, shooting just 25%! 8* Purdue

8* Vancouver (10:05 ET): This is almost a "must-win" for a Canucks team that seems to be "wasting away" what was a fine start to the season. After 14 games, the club was standing tall at 9-3-2. Now they are 13-11-4 after losing 10 of 14. The most recent defeat came Sunday night, here on home ice, against Edmonton. That loss cost them what would have been a home and home sweep of the first place Oilers, who are now seven points up on Vancouver in the Pacific.

Ottawa is not a good team as they have only 23 points on the season. Only two teams have less points, those being Detroit and New Jersey. The Senators have lost four in a row coming into tonight while being outscored 13-4. Its their third consecutive road game and while they've had a two-day break, they're in Edmonton tomorrow night. The road has generally been a disaster for the Sens thus far as they are 4-10-1 while getting outscored by 1.4 goals per game. 

Meanwhile, Vancouver is averaging a healthy 3.9 gpg at home this season. You'd expect them to be sporting a better home record than 5-3-3 right now. The next four games can change that as they are all here in British Columbia. The Canucks' 92 goals scored are most in the Pacific Division and well ahead of Ottawa's scoring pace (only 68 goals scored). I thought they played better than Edmonton Sunday night, but giving up two PP goals proved costly. Won't happen again tonight. 8* Vancouver

10* Rutgers (9:00 ET): Michigan-Louisville isn't the only game I'm playing in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge Tuesday night. While far from being the most marquee game on the slate, Rutgers-Pitt happens to offer the most value. Not sure the home team even deserves to be favored here. Though off to a 6-2 start this year, remember that the Pitt program had fallen on some real "hard times" recently. They were a combined 16-43 SU the previous two seasons. I remain unconvinced that they've taken any real significant steps. Take the points here. 

Pitt is playing at a very slow pace so far as only 15 teams in the country average a fewer number of possessions per game. HC Jeff Capel, now in his second season, would like to play faster. It just hasn't happened for the Panthers so far. Now they've been mostly winning, so tempo hasn't been an issue. They just held both Kansas State and Northwestern to 59 points in a Thanksgiving Weekend tournament down in Fort Myers. But if Rutgers can push the pace here and score like they have their L2 games, then Pitt is going to be in a lot of trouble here. 

Remember Pitt did lose as an 18.5-point favorite to Nicholls State here at home earlier in the year. They also lost by 15 to West Virginia, also at home. Rutgers has yet to play a "true" road game and it's only loss was to St. Bonaventure as an 8.5-point neutral court favorite. The Scarlet Knights have topped 80 pts in B2B games and also beat the same SF Austin team that beat Duke. The last game was an 82-57 blowout of UMass. I just don't think Pitt has the scoring to keep up here. 10* Rutgers

8* Dallas (7:35 ET): I'm not sure that the market has truly caught up to how good the Mavericks really are. Beating the Lakers by double digits Sunday night, on the road no less, certainly should have served notice. Yet the line for tonight's game with the middling Pelicans remains far too short. Dallas has won and covered seven of its last eight games, the only loss coming to the Clippers. They own the 2nd best point differential and net efficiency rating in the West. I have them #4 overall in my own power rankings. Lay the short number here. 

New Orleans comes in as losers of five straight, so that's another reason to be suspect of this short number. The Pelicans were just swept in a home and home by the Thunder. Both losses were close, but the Thunder came in at just 1-8 SU on the road. Dallas is 7-2 SU and ATS away from home so far. 

Defense has been a big problem so far in the Big Easy as the Pelicans are allowing 118.7 PPG, most in the Western Conference. That's going to be an even bigger problem tonight when facing the league's most efficient offensive team. The Mavericks are currently averaging more than 120 PPG on the road. They just beat a Lakers team that was on a 10-game win streak, so a Pelicans team that's on a five-game losing skid should be no match, especially w/o Zion Williamson. 8* Dallas 

8* Louisville (7:30 ET): Michigan has gone from unranked to #4 in the country. It's not just that the Wolverines were unranked to start the season - they were unranked just last week! But a stunning showing at last week's Battle 4 Atlantis, which included wins over Iowa State, North Carolina and Gonzaga, caused Juwan Howard's team to skyrocket into the Top 25. The move matches the biggest jump in the history of the poll as Kansas also went from unranked to #4 back in 1989. 

So now is probably as good a time as any to "sell high" on Michigan. While pollsters aren't always a reliable judge, the fact the Maize and Blue started unranked still means something. Sure, we are all guilty of a misread, but I still wouldn't consider the Wolverines a Top 10 team despite what they pulled off last week. Back in the 1st game of the season, I faded them as they failed to cover against Appalachian State. That's one of just two games Michigan hasn't covered this year. 

Louisville is #1 in the country, by the way! They are the fourth team to occupy the top spot in the season's first five weeks. They moved up to #1 thanks to Duke's stunning loss to Stephen F. Austin last week. Like Michigan, the Cardinals are 7-0. But the difference is that they opened the year ranked #5 in the country. This is Michigan's first "true" road game under Howard, so expect a downturn from the offensive efforts in Atlantis. L'ville is allowing just 36.3% shooting for the year. 8* Louisville

9* Under Coyotes/Blue Jackets (7:05 ET): Decent amount of juice to lay here to play the Under, but that's for good reason as neither side is known for doing a ton of scoring. Columbus is 28th in the league at 2.54 goals per game while Arizona isn't too far ahead, sitting at only 24th at 2.64. The teams played to a 3-2 final out in the desert last month with the Blue Jackets coming out ahead. The Under is now 4-0-1 in all five meetings over the last three seasons. Take the Under. 

Columbus was just shutout its last time on the ice. They were blanked 2-0 by the Islanders, making it the 7th time this year they were held to one goal or less. That's not good news when facing a Coyotes team that is among the league leaders in fewest goals allowed. The 'Yotes are giving up just 2.32 gpg on the season. Only league-leading Boston has allowed fewer. By the way, the Under is a perfect 5-0 for the Blue Jackets at home this year when the O/U line is 5.5. 

Arizona is coming off a tough loss in which it surrendered four unanswered goals. Early on it was looking good as they scored on their first two shots of the game. But that 2-0 lead was short-lived as the Sharks stormed back for four of their own and the 'Yotes never scored again. They figure to not have too many scoring opportunities tonight as C-bus is giving up only 27.2 shots per game, which is among the fewest in the league. Luckily, Arizona will have Darcy Keumper in goal. The league leader in GAA (1.97), Keumper was not in goal for the loss to San Jose. 9* Under Coyotes/Blue Jackets

10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): Endless throughout the telecast of tonight's game, you are bound to hear that Kirk Cousins is 0-7 (straight up) all-time on Monday Night Football. Were Al Michaels calling the game, you might also hear he's 0-7 ATS. But what you may not be told is that Cousins hasn't ever quarterbacked for a team this good. The Vikings are 8-3 SU and own the league's fourth best overall point differential (+84). This line implies that these teams would be considered "even" on a neutral field. That's simply not the case as the Vikings have been more impressive in my eyes. Take the points. 

Seattle has been living dangerously. Granted, they are 9-2 SU and have a chance to move up to the #1 seed in the NFC w/ a win tonight. But the vast majority of their games this year have been close. They are 7-1 SU in one-score games this season, 8-1 if you count last week's 8-point win at Philadelphia. Only New Orleans has a higher win percentage in games decided by one score this season. The Seahawks have just one win this year by greater than eight points and it came at the expense of last place Arizona.

Those who have followed my picks for any length of time know that I lean heavily on scoring differential as a reliable indicator of future outcomes. I'm just not fully buying into this Seattle team yet. Their YTD point differential is only +29, which is outside the Top 10. Teams like Tennessee (7-5) and even Dallas (6-6) have outscored their opponents by more. The Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS in their home games. The Vikings are off a bye here. Cousins is the only QB in the league w/ a higher passer rating than Russell Wilson. The Vikings also have the better defense. 10* Minnesota

10* Under Suns/Hornets (7:05 ET): My own power ratings indicate there's some value on Phoenix here, but it's hard to trust a team that's lost six of seven and laying points on the road. Especially one as "unproven" as the Suns. This team has shown definitely improvement this year as they are a respectable 8-10 SU. Remember that they have finished in the Western Conference basement each of the last three seasons. Charlotte has the same number of wins as Phoenix, but has lost 13 times and has a very poor point differential (-8.5 PPG). For the sake of comparison, the Suns have actually outscored opponents this season. 

Charlotte gave up 137 points in its last game, so they're not exactly playing well either. But that was against Milwaukee. They're not facing the Bucks again here, which is good because they allowed 30+ pts in every quarter of that game. The Bucks shot 56.2%. Expect better defense tonight from the Hornets. As for the offense, you shouldn't expect much. They are only averaging 105.5 PPG. Just four teams are scoring less than that. 

Phoenix also has struggled defensively its last two times out, giving up an average of 130 PPG. Like Charlotte, five of the Suns' last six games have gone Over the total. These teams also have a history of going Over against one another as that's the way the past NINE head to head meetings have gone. But look for this one to be a little different. Road games see the Suns both scoring and allowing fewer points per game. The Under is 3-0 for them this season when they are on the road and the total is 220+ points. 10* Under Suns/Hornets

10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): This is the second game of a home and home between two of Western Canada's teams. The first took place last night in Edmonton w/ visiting Vancouver winning 5-2. While that result showed that home ice isn't always all it's cracked up to be, I also don't see the road team winning both of these games. I've stated my issues w/ the Oilers in the past as they've been living dangerously, posting an irregularly high number of come from behind wins. Look for the Canucks to sweep this home and home. 

This is not a great bit of scheduling for the road team. Edmonton had just played five straight on the road before losing at home last night. Now it's back on the road. The Oilers have lost two straight, getting outscored 9-3 in those games. This is not a team that scores a ton on the road (just 2.8 gpg) and they continue to be outshot over the course of the whole season. 

 Vancouver just wrapped up a six-game road trip last night and will now be at home for the next five. It's a favorable stretch w/ some bad teams coming in (like Ottawa on Tuesday) and the Canucks have been a high-scoring club here in B.C. by averaging 4.1 goals per game. It's a little amazing that they are just 5-2-3 SU on home ice considering they've outscored opponents here by over a full goal per game. My view is that this is going to be a good week for Vancouver and it starts tonight with two points. 10* Vancouver

10* Toronto (6:05 ET): Despite injuries to multiple key players (Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka), the Raptors keep on winning. They're on six-game win streak entering Sunday when they'll host Utah. While the Jazz are a formidable foe, Toronto has posted the league's third best scoring differential and net efficiency rating, so I have little hesitation in laying this short number at home. Plus they could be getting both Ibaka and Lowry back tonight. 

Utah is in the midst of a tough five-game road trip, one that started w/ losses at Milwaukee and Indiana. They bounced back with a win over lowly Memphis on Friday, but this is now their 4th road game in 7 nights, which isn't exactly a great spot to be in. Especially since the Jazz are just 4-6 SU on the road and averaging 103.1 PPG. Also, Toronto hasn't lost at home this year! They are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, winning by an average of almost 15 PPG! 

Overall, the Raptors are 9-2 ATS when favored this season. They are clearly being undervalued right now because of the injuries. Norman Powell scored a career-high 33 in Friday's 90-83 win over Orlando, so they are getting contributions from a wide variety of players. Pascal Siakam has been another main contributor.  Right now, the Raptors are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Utah actually trailed Memphis by 15 at halftime Friday. This line is just too low as the reigning NBA Champs remain an elite team despite injuries and Kawhi Leonard being gone. 10* Toronto

10* Under Grizzlies/T'Wolves (3:35 ET): While these teams played a high scoring game here in the Twin Cities last month, I'm willing to bank they won't do it again. This is a really high total for Memphis, who stayed Under the only previous game where the total was 230+ points. It was against Houston and they lost 107-100. Twice in the last five games they have failed to even break 100 points. The same can also be said for Minnesota! Take the Under. 

The Grizzlies' last game was a 103-94 loss to Utah. In that game, they were held below 40% shooting and scored only 39 points in the second half. Now it should be noted the Jazz are a good defensive team. But Golden State certainly isn't and Memphis failed to score 100 against them recently. Ja Morant is going to sit this one out due to a back injury, so that's another blow to the Grizzlies' offense. Outside of Morant, there just isn't much consistent scoring for this team. 

Minnesota hasn't played since Wednesday when they won in San Antonio, 113-101. That was the fifth time in six games they went Under. The last four times they've hosted Memphis, the Under is 4-0. The T'wolves have not shot the ball well here at home, making just 42.7% of their field goals including 27.7% on three-point attempts. While they average 118.3 PPG on the road, the T'wolves average only 109.8 PPG on the road. 10* Under Grizzlies/T'wolves

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): At first blush, there's really no good reason to back the Giants here. They've lost seven straight games to fall to 2-9 SU on the season. But four of those seven losses have been one-score games. Eventually, the G-Men have got to win one, right? Green Bay was humbled last Sunday night in an ugly 38-7 loss out in San Francisco. The expectation of a bounce back has turned them into a very "public side" for this week. I think it's worth a fade. Take the points. 

I played against the Packers last week, noting they were shaping up to be a "public dog." Bettors see that 8-3 SU record and think this team is better than it actually is. Flaws were apparent last week in San Francisco, particularly along the offensive line, which is dealing with injuries. But the bottom line is that the Packers aren't as good as their record. I've talked about this for. They have been outgained this season and their defense, which was once thought to be an improved unit, is actually dead last in the league in yards per play allowed (6.4). 

I thought the Giants would be a little better in 2019. The decision to bench Eli Manning in favor of rookie Daniel Jones was the correct one. What's shocking though is how RB Saquon Barkley is struggling. He's averaged just 3.5 yards per carry the L4 weeks and has not scored a TD in three straight games. Look for him to break that streak here though against the suspect Packers' defense. The Packers' offense has been held below 200 total yards in its last two road games. Look for the home dog to keep this one close in what is a very strong "anti-public fade." 8* NY Giants

10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Two weeks ago, in a game that ended w/ a much publicized brawl, the Browns beat the Steelers. It was only their seventh win over Pittsburgh since returning to the league in 1999 and the just the second in 14 tries. Cleveland was a 3-point home favorite for that game. I realize the final score was 21-7, but why are they road favorites here? I suppose a three-game win streak and the fact Pittsburgh is starting Devlin Hodges at QB play a role in that. But, to me, the Browns are back to where they were at the start of the season - overvalued.

The last time Cleveland was favored in Pittsburgh was 30 years ago, Week 1 of the 1989 season and they won 51-0. That was Chuck Noll's final season! So it's been a long time since this situation presented itself. The Browns managed to sweep a three-game homestand to get back to 5-6, but last week's win was against the worst team in the league, Miami. History is simply not on Cleveland's side here. They have not swept a season series from the Steelers since 1988. Each of the last 8 times they've won the 1st meeting, they've gone 0-8 SU/ATS the second go around. They are 0-15 SU their L15 visits to Pittsburgh.

The move from Mason Rudolph to Hodges is probably for the best. There's minimal distraction w/ Rudolph on the sideline. Also, the Steelers' numbers in the passing game actually go up when Hodges is under center. The number of yards per play, per pass attempt and third down conversion rate are all better. Granted it's a small sample size, but I took Hodges in his 1st career start when the Steelers ended up beating the Chargers. QB's making their 1st or 2nd career start have gone 14-4 ATS this season. The Steelers, who are 5-1 SU L6 games, have the better defense here. In addition to missing Myles Garrett, the Browns are going to be w/o LT Greg Robinson and S Damarious Randall. Pittsburgh is only w/o center Pouncey. The Steelers are 9-3 ATS as underdogs L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Under Titans/Colts (1:00 ET): What an interesting season it's been with Tennesee totals. After winning the season opener 43-13 in Cleveland (easy Over), the next five games all stayed Under. I took the Over when they hosted the Chargers on Oct 20 and it cashed (barely). Since then, every game has gone Over. If you're looking for a reason for the big change, it can be tied to Ryan Tannehill of all people as the Titans offense has been much more effective w/ him as the QB as opposed to Marcus Mariota. But I like the Under this week as the Titans are matched up w/ a familiar opponent.

The Colts played the Titans in Week 2. It was a 19-17 game, won by Indianapolis. Mariota started that game for Tennessee, so this will be Indy's first look at Fitzpatrick in a Titans' uniform. In the games Tannehill has started, Tennessee is 1st in the league in red zone efficiency, scoring a TD on 13 of 14 possessions. But I'm still skeptical of Tannehill. The Colts' defense is allowing just 20.5 PPG and has allowed more than 24 in regulation just two times all year. The Titans' L2 games have seen them score their highest point totals since the season opener, but they still are averaging just 22.3 PPG on the year and 18.8 PPG on the road.

The Colts' offense likes to run the ball but RB Marlon Mack (hand) is still out. Plus, the Tennessee defense has permitted only one 100+ yard rusher all season - and it was Christian McCaffery. The Titans are allowing just 19.7 PPG on the year and 17.8 PPG on the road. So we're looking at some really low-scoring games when the Titans are the road team. Speaking of low-scoring, the Colts managed only 17 points LW in Houston. WR TY Hilton is also out here. The Titans scored 4 TDs in six offensive plays last week, which will not happen again. 10* Under Titans/Colts 

8* Army (11:59 ET): Everything about this situation screams "Army!" They have to win to get bowl eligible. They are coming off a bye. Before the bye, they had easy wins over UMass and VMI. Hawaii's situation could not be any more different. They are off a huge 14-11 win over San Diego State that guaranteed them a spot in next week's Mountain West Championship Game vs. Boise State. With that lookahead, the last thing the coaching staff wants to do is spend time preparing for the unique Army offense. Even before factoring in the obvious situational edge Army has, they should not be an underdog in this game. Take the points.

Army won 21 games the previous two seasons, so 2019 has been a bit of a disappointment. All six losses this year have been by single digits, three of them by five points or less. Disappointment aside, this is such a favorable matchup. Not only because of the extra week to prepare for the long trip to Honolulu, but also because Hawaii's defense can be quite bad at stopping the run. The Warriors are bottom 10 in the country in yards per carry allowed and figure to have face the run 60+ times in this game. Earlier in the year, Hawaii faced Air Force and gave up 353 yards rushing on almost 7.0 YPC! Yikes! That ended up being a 56-26 loss.

As if the situation couldn't be less favorable for Hawaii, the forecast is calling for high winds, which will limit their passing attack. Tip your cap to the job HC Nick Rolovich has done in his two years in Honolulu. No one expected the Warriors to make it to the Mt West Champ Game this season. But the excitement of doing so works against the team this week. Keep in mind Hawaii needed a missed FG last week to preserve the win over San Diego State. The offense has scored only 35 total pts the last two games. 8* Army

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): Things couldn't have possibly gone any better for Arizona State last week as they upset Oregon 31-28 as a 2 TD underdog. The win got the Sun Devils bowl eligible while simultaneously killing any shot Oregon had of making the CFP. But that result sets up this rare spot where ASU is unlikely to be able to have the same intensity for their rivalry game as they did last week. Arizona will treat this year's edition of the "Territorial Cup" as its "bowl game" as they come in at 4-7 SU. Last year, the Wildcats needed to beat ASU to get bowl eligible but lost. They'll certainly be hungry for some payback here. Take the points.

Failing to make a bowl in B2B seasons is hardly how the faithful in Tucson envisioned the Kevin Sumlin era starting. But that's the reality here. The Wildcats have not covered since a 35-30 win at Colorado (were +2.5) back on October 5th. Since pulling that upset, they are 0-6 SU and ATS. While an outright win here seems unlikely, if the Wildcats can't show some pride, then Sumlin's stay here could be a short one. You can't keep getting blown out, week after week. Winning this rivalry game would at least be a nice way to end a disappointing season. 

While I struggle to write anything positive about Arizona here, this is more of a fade on ASU. Not only is it a difficult spot due to being off a big-time upset, but the Sun Devils have not been good as favorites. They are 0-5 ATS as chalk for Coach Herm this season including three outright losses. The split in two years under Edwards is now pretty severe. ASU is 2-8-1 ATS when favored. Getting points, they are 9-5 ATS w/ six outright wins. This is just the 6th time under Edwards that they've been favored in a Pac 12 game and they've failed to cover the last four including three outright losses this year! The Sun Devils have only had to lay more than 7.5 pts twice in 2019 and those games resulted in ATS losses vs. Sacramento State & Kent State. 8* Arizona

8* Over BYU/San Diego State (9:00 ET): A tough spot for SDSU here. The Aztecs lost out in Hawaii last week, a game that decided the MWC West Division. The disappointment of knowing they won't be able to play for a conference championship will likely linger into this regular season finale vs. BYU. Brigham Young is an independent, thus they have no such distractions. They've won five straight, two of them against Mt West teams including the likely conference champ Boise State. They've already booked a trip to the 2019 Hawaii Bowl. I don't this game will have the same defensive intensity as it would have were it played a few weeks ago. Take the Over. 

Every San Diego State game but one has gone Under this year (10-1 Under). But coming off the close loss to Hawaii last week, I don't see the Aztecs' defense playing up to its usual standard. It was an 'ugly' 14-11 setback out on the island w/ a missed FG in the final minute being the difference. I realize the Aztecs' offense has struggled mightily throughout this 2019 season and will be w/o QB Ryan Agnew here. But if they can get close to 20 points (they average 19.5 PPG), then this should be an easy Over w/ the number being so low.

BYU is banged up in the backfield as well, but still scored 56 points last week. I know that was against a terrible UMass defense, but the Cougars have averaged almost 40 PPG during their current win streak. I know they aren't likely to approach that number this week, but even half that would likely lead to an Over. BYU has dominated San Diego State through the years, winning six straight and 9 of 10 going back to 2002. It's important to note this will be the lowest O/U for the Cougars this season. The only lower O/U for SDSU was the one time they went Over (vs. Wyoming).  This game finds a way to get Over. 8* Over BYU/San Diego St

8* Colorado (7:30 ET): Well, Arizona was unable to get the job done last week. But you can expect more motivation from Colorado here against #6 Utah. I was impressed by the effort from Mel Tucker's team in a 20-14 upset of Washington last week where they were 2 TD home underdogs. The Buffaloes do to hit the road this week and while another upset is unlikely, it would give them bowl eligibility. Because of that, I don't see this turning into another Utah blowout. The Utes are red hot, but could be looking ahead to next week's Pac 12 Championship Game vs. Oregon. They'll win, but won't cover. 

Utah technically has not qualified for the Pac 12 Championship Game yet They need to win this game. Obviously, judging by the pointspread, winning seems like a formality. The Utes have won and covered seven straight since losing at USC on a Friday night back in September. That 7-game ATS win streak is currently the longest in the country. There is no doubt that this is an impressive team that has the credentials to make the College Football Playoff were they to win out. But even though six of their last seven wins have come by at least 25 points, I see this being "closer than the experts think." It's the biggest number the Utes have had to lay to any FBS opponent all season.

Colorado dominated the line of scrimmage in last week's upset of Washington, running for 207 yds at 5.0 YPC. They held the Huskies to just 238 total yds, including only 32 on the ground. It was the second game in a row the much maligned Buffaloes defense allowed 14 pts or less. It's not going to be that easy here, but they enticement of a bowl opportunity should keep the underdog motivated throughout. The Buffs played a couple "stinkers" at Oregon and Washington State, but three of their other four losses have been by a TD or less. Utah is entering a game w/ some real pressure for the 1st time and I think they play this one pretty "close to the vest."  They've not been a 28+ pt favorite vs. a FBS foe in the L5 seasons. 8* Colorado

10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): This game will determine the winner of the Big 10 West and who goes on to face Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. The Big 10 West was thought to be pretty wide open coming into the year, so it's not that big of a surprise to see a team like Minnesota coming from "relative obscurity" to challenge for the crown. But it also should be pointed out that the Gophers have played the easiest Big 10 schedule possible by avoiding both Ohio State & Michigan. They've been favored in almost every game, save for the loss to Iowa and a game against Penn State where they gave up over 500 yards. Wisconsin is the better team here. 

The Badgers are a team I once considered to be "top 5 worthy." Their season obviously changed w/ B2B weeks where they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite and then were blown out by Ohio State. After allowing just 29 pts total the first six games (FOUR shutouts!), the Badgers have given up 21 or more to the L5 opponents. Yet all but one win this year has come by at least nine points. They have outgained opponents by 173.1 YPG this season. Not afraid to lay the short number here as Wisconsin is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite. 

This is actually the oldest rivalry in College Football as it dates back to 1890. Minnesota snapped a 15-year losing streak last year w/ a convincing 37-15 win in Madison, a game which they came in as 11-point underdogs. I'm sure the Badgers remember and revenge will be a factor. The Golden Gophers have not won "Paul Bunyan's Axe" (trophy the teams play for) B2B years since 1993-94. This boils down to the fact that I have simply been more impressed w/ Wisconsin this year. Minnesota is still a team I'm not sure deserves to be mentioned among the top 15 nationally, even w/ their WL record. There were five different games they easily could have lost this year. 10* Wisconsin

***THIS PLAY IS ACTUALLY ON THE OVER 

10* Over Wyoming/Air Force (2:00 ET): I've had lots of success betting Air Force games this season, starting w/ the Flyboys' 31-7 thrashing of Utah State in a late night home game back on October 26th. Since then, I've managed to both successfully fade them (laying 17 to Army) and cash them (at Colorado State, thanks to a late pick-six). The Falcons come into the regular season finale at 9-2 (2nd best record among Mt West teams) after clobbering New Mexico 44-22 last week, a game I did not play. Considering how much they've been scoring of late, I think Over is a more than reasonable play here, especially w/ such a low number. 

The reason for the total being so low here is Wyoming. The Cowboys have gone Under in five straight games and they've all been low-scoring affairs. QB Sean Chambers being lost for the season has played a big hand in the offense not doing much, but the Pokes do have a pretty good defense as well. Not since Missouri in the season opener has a Wyoming opponent scored more than 26 points. But I wouldn't be too convinced that the Cowboys are looking forward to facing the vaunted AFA triple option offense in this regular season finale. Other than vs. their fellow service academies (Army, Navy) and Boise State, Air Force has scored at least 30 points in every game this season.

The Falcons will certainly be motivated coming into this game. Not only can they make it a 10-win season, but they also are looking to snap a three-year losing skid to Wyoming. Two of those losses have come as favorites and they've given up at least 28 points in every game. But Wyoming has been a strong underdog this year, beating Missouri outright as a 16.5-pt dog and then only losing by a combined 15 pts the other four times they've gotten points. I get how Wyoming games have trended lately, but this O/U line is set to be the lowest for both teams this year. Even against a stout run defense, Air Force will get its ground game going. 10* Over Wyoming/Air Force

10* Utah State (11:30 ET): I'm not sure I understand this line at all. Utah State is ranked #15 and is one of 31 unbeaten teams left in the country. There really is no objective measure by which one could consider St. Mary's the better team here. The game is at St. Mary's. But last year Utah State won so convincingly on a neutral court (80-63 as 4-point underdogs), the home court advantage doesn't even matter to me. The Aggies have played a weak schedule, save for the win over LSU, but getting to 7-0 w/o stud big man Neemias Queta has to have them happy in Logan. Take the points.

I had USU when the beat LSU. Granted, the win required a shocking comeback as the Aggies trailed by as many as 19 points. But that was a quality non-conference win on a neutral court (Jamaica). This is Utah State's first "true" road game of the season. But the Jamaica trip, which also included a 68-59 win over North Texas, should have them ready. St. Mary's has already lost a home game, as 18-point favorites to Winthrop.

The Aggies have held five of their seven opponents below 60 points. St. Mary's just yielded a season-high 66 in a win over Lehigh last weekend. So in what promises to be a low-scoring game, taking the points seems optimal. Plus, in its first five games, Utah State had four different leading scorers while averaging over 80 PPG. The win over North Texas on Sunday marked the first time this season that the Aggies didn't score at least 80. I had them in a 32-point win over UTSA where they allowed just 28.6% shooting. I like this team quite a bit and feel they're being undervalued. 10* Utah State

10* Over Mavericks/Suns (9:05 ET): With some of the perennial favorites like Golden State and San Antonio declining greatly this year, some space has opened up near the top of the Western Conference pecking order. Dallas and Phoenix may not end up in the top five, but they definitely both qualify as pleasant early season surprises. The Suns more so as it's been a decade since they made the playoffs. They've finished last in the Conference three straight seasons.

Dallas finished second-to-last in 2018-19, though there was a rather sizable 14-game gap between them and Phoenix. They are the better of the two teams here, though when you factor in the home court advantage, I rate this game as a Pick 'em. But it's the total you want to play tonight as it's two of the league's top offensive teams squaring off. The Mavericks are #1 in offensive efficiency with the Suns not far behind at #6. There should be plenty of points scored here.

The crazy thing about Phoenix's improvement is that it's come without former #1 overall draft choice Deandre Ayton, who played in only one game before getting suspended for 25 (failed drug test). But the Suns are averaging 114.8 PPG and 117.3 PPG when at home. The Mavs average 117.9 PPG overall and 121.0 PPG on the road. As you'd expect, Dallas also gives up more on the road (114.3) than at home. But Phoenix allows more points at home (114.2) than on the road. The Over is 8-2 in Phoenix home games with a total of 220 or higher. The Over is 4-0 in Dallas' road games when the total is 220+.  10* Over Mavericks/Suns

8* Dallas (8:35 ET): A 3-0 loss in Chicago Tuesday night ended a very impressive 12-game run for the Stars. During that time, they went 11-0-1 and scored 47 goals. The run has them in second in the Central Division, trailing only the team they'll face Friday, the defending Stanley Cup Champion Blues. St. Louis has also been hot of late, going 10-2-3 SU its L15 overall and 6-0-2 its L8 on the road. But this game being in Dallas, where the Stars haven't lost this month, absolutely matters.

The Stars may be four points back of the Blues in the division, but I feel they are the better team. Both teams have the same number of wins and losses, the only difference is that six of St. Louis' 11 losses have come beyond regulation. But Dallas has the slightly better YTD goal differential and unlike the Blues, they're actually outshooting their opponents. The Stars also are among the league leaders in fewest goals allowed. They are allowing just 2.0 per game at home.

You have to give St. Louis credit for beating Tampa Bay twice in an eight-day span. The second win came Wednesday. But before that they'd also been swept in a home and home by slumping Nashville. The Blues have dropped five of eight overall. This is a rematch from October 5th, the second game of the season, where the Blues won 3-2 at home. That game saw St. Louis rally from a 2-1 third period deficit. This time they are at home and out for revenge. 8* Dallas 

7* Toronto (4:05 ET): A couple days ago, I wrote about what a jumbled mess the NHL's Atlantic Division seems to be. Boston has raced out in front, but after that it's "anybody's ball game." You have to expect Tampa Bay will be surging up the standings at some point and the same can probably be said for Toronto. The Maple Leafs just won their last game 6-0 (over lowly Detroit) and have now won three straight, all on the road. I like them Friday as big favorites in Buffalo.

The Sabres seem to be trending in the opposite direction. They are just 2-8-2 SU this month and have dropped 11 of 13 overall. This would be the second year in a row the Sabres are quickly fading after a strong start. Last year, they opened 17-6-2 SU only to be well out of playoff contention down the stretch. This year, the start was better and the fade faster. They just lost to a Calgary team that's having all sorts of trouble - on and off the ice - right now.

Coaching changes happen a lot more in this sport and Toronto recently made one. A six-game losing streak led to the dismissal of Mike Babcock and the Leafs haven't lost since. It's now Sheldon Keefe's team and he'll look to continue a streak set by his predecessor as the Leafs have beaten the Sabres five straight times. Goalie Frederik Andersen has been really strong of late between the pipes w/ a .956 save percentage his L3 starts. He has a 10-3 SU career record vs. Buffalo. 7* Toronto

10* Virginia (12:00 ET): While much of the College Football world will be focusing in on the big Ohio State-Michigan game this weekend and whether or not the underdog can reverse an ugly series history in that particular rivalry, the same narrative also rings true here in the Commonwealth Cup. In fact, things have been even more one-sided here, if you can believe it. Virginia has lost to Va Tech a record 15 consecutive times with many of the recent battles being close. Last year's defeat was among the most painful as UVA blew a 4Q lead and fell in OT. 

Virginia came into this season w/ its eye on winning the ACC's Coastal Division. That goal will be accomplished if they can finally beat the Hokies. Despite the dreadful series history, there is some good news here for the Cavaliers. The game is in Charlottesville where they are a perfect 6-0 SU this season, winning by an average of 20 points per game. Their offensive output jumps up to 41.2 PPG here at Scott Stadium, which is well above what the average is on the road. The Hoos have been the most consistent Coastal team in 2019 and this is the first time they have been a home dog all season.

The bad news is Virginia Tech comes in hot. The Hokies share the same records as UVA as both are 8-3 overall and 5-2 in conference. But the path Va Tech to get here is a little different. They've caught fire in the second half of the season, winning six of seven (only loss was by 1 pt @ Notre Dame) after suffering what was a humiliating 45-10 defeat to Duke in a Friday night home game. The Hokies are also on a 6-0 ATS run after starting 0-4 ATS. Because they're hot and have had Virginia's number, this number has already changed significantly from the time it opened. I keep coming back to "if not now, when?" for Virginia. My projections say they should be a 5-pt favorite here. I'll trust those numbers and the fact Va Tech has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 games w/ a line of 3 pts or less. 10* Virginia 

10* Under Toledo/Central Michigan (12:00 ET): The complexion of this game was altered dramatically by Western Michigan losing Tuesday. Now the door is wide open for Central Michigan to win the MAC West. All the Chippewas must do is win this game, which they are expected to comfortably (now a double-digit favorite). But don't expect Toledo to roll over. The Rockets are bowl eligible, but a loss here would leave them at 6-6. With more MAC teams bowl eligible than there are available bowl slots, some of the 6-win teams are inevitably going to be left out. Toledo doesn't want to see it's 9-year bowl streak come to an end. 

If you've been following either of these teams, then you know both have been going Over the total with great regularity. Toledo is 5-0 Over its last five games while CMU is 6-0 Over its last six. But if you've been following my O/U plays during this great streak that I'm on, then you already know that fading such streaks has been "the name of the game." This is a higher O/U line than either team is used to seeing. Four of the five straight Toledo games that have gone Over have seen O/U lines of 58.5 pts or lower. Their games average 59.7 PPG for the season. Central Michigan has seen totals in the high 40's during their Over streak and this will be the highest O/U line for any of their games this year. CMU games average 60.0 PPG on the nose.

Putting aside the total for a moment, the streak CMU is more concerned about ending is nine straight losses to Toledo. While four of those losses have occurred in Mt. Pleasant, getting this game at home is huge for the Chippewas as they are allowing only 19.8 PPG here (5-0 SU). Toledo's scoring average drops to 23.2 PPG on the road. CMU has not scored more than 17 pts on the Rockets' defense since 2015. While this is a better team going against an inferior Toledo product, expect the offense to not totally have its way. This is potentially a "nervous moment" for the Chippewas. 10* Under Toledo/Central Michigan

10* Under Saints/Falcons (8:20 ET): When I released Atlanta as a *10* Game of the Week selection three weeks ago in New Orleans, admittedly there wasn't much belief that the Falcons would win straight up. After all, they were two touchdown underdogs to a Saints team that hadn't lost since Week 2. But win straight up is precisely what the Dirty Birds did. The most shocking thing about it is just how dominant a SU victory it was. A previously non-existent pass rush showed up in a major way for Atlanta w/ 6 sacks and 11 QB hits and they led pretty much from start to finish in what ended up being a 26-9 final. Can the defense do it again? I think so! Take the Under here. 

The week after they stunned the Saints, the Falcons defense stepped up big again in a 29-3 win at Carolina. At that point, it certainly "felt" as though their season might be turning around as they returned home to face a fellow 3-7 team, Tampa Bay. But we faded and the Falcons lost 35-22. Not sure what happened to that defensive resurgence, but the Bucs offense had a big day. Atlanta's offense did not w/ only 13 pts through three quarters. They had a late garbage time TD that sent the game Over. That Over would not have been possible w/o a late TB defensive score as well. The Falcons only average 22.0 PPG this year.

The Saints have been one of the luckier teams this year. They were fortunate to go 5-0 SU w/ Teddy Bridgewater filling in for an injured Drew Brees. Last week, they pulled another "rabbit out of the hat" w/ a 34-31 win over Carolina, kicking a GW FG as time expired, only after Carolina missed its own FG try. Though they appeared to look "as good as ever" last week, this Saints' offense has its problems. They tend to start slow and have had four different games where they failed to score a TD in the first three quarters. They only average 24.7 PPG, but are fortunate to have a defense which allows just 20.9 PPG. 10* Under Saints/Falcons

10* Buffalo (4:30 ET): Last year saw the Cowboys win the NFC East with a 10-6 SU record (despite only a +18 point differential). This year's team is every bit as talented, if not more so given they have a full season of Amari Cooper plus the return of TE Jason Witten. America's Team has the 4th best point differential in the league right now at +85. Yet they are stuck w/ a 6-5 SU record. If you've got a keen eye, the reason for the difference in record is easy to spot. Last year's team was a league-best 9-2 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!). This year, they are 0-4 in such contests. Funny how those things work out!

Despite only losing by 4 pts last week, to one of the league's best teams (New England), owner Jerry Jones of course had to open up his big yap. Certainly I didn't need Jones to identify that Bill Belichick is a better coach than Jason Garrett. That's pretty well understood. Missing the playoffs may very well cost Garrett his job and unfortunately for him, that's how I see things ending up. I know they were facing an elite defense last week, but the Cowboys were held to just 9 points. They face another strong defensive team this week. 

Buffalo has certainly taken advantage of a weak schedule to get to 8-3 SU. But look at whom the Cowboys have beaten. Five of their six wins have been against the Giants (2), Redskins, Dolphins and Lions. Those teams are a collective 9-34-1 SU! So you can't penalize the Bills for their weak schedule in handicapping this matchup. I just cannot see Dallas blowing out a team that allows only 15.7 points per game. Buffalo dominated Denver last week, winning 20-3 while allowing less than 3.0 yards per play. There's been only one game all season where the Bills allowed more than 21 points. They are 3-1 ATS as underdogs, including their own cover at New England. This is just the 2nd time they've gotten more than 3.5 pts in a game this year (NE being 1st). I expect this to be a close game and all the outside distraction this week certainly doesn't help the favorite. 10* Buffalo

8* Over Bears/Lions (12:35 ET): Low total here as both teams have been going Under quite regularly of late, including one game where they played each other. That 20-13 Week 10 result (that went in the Bears' favor) marked the first time the Lions were forced to start Jeff Driskel in place of the injured Matt Stafford. While it may seem a little challenging to handicap this rematch in light of the Lions' QB situation (they may be down to third-stringer David Blough), I am forging ahead w/ the Over. It doesn't take all that much to send a game Over a total like this. 

Chicago has had its own QB issues, bouncing back and forth between Mitchell Trubisky and backup Chase Daniel. Given how ineffective he's been, it's stunning to think back to August when Trubisky was getting bets to win league MVP. He did lead his team to victory last Sunday, 19-14 over the Giants, and while it was ugly the Bears offense did gain 20 first downs. All 19 pts were scored in the 3rd quarter. The Lions' defense they'll be up against here is not good. It has allowed at least 23 points in all but three games this year. 

Obviously, I'm hopeful Driskel will be the starter here for the Lions. But if not, I'm still confident the offense will be able to score enough to help send this one Over. I know both offenses are short-handed, but this reminds me of a few weeks ago when I bet the Over on Jets-Redskins and won. This is the NFL and eventually an offense is going to start scoring. In this case, we have two that are long overdue to put some points on the road. Two weeks ago, with Driskel at the helm, the Lions did score 27 against the Cowboys. Last week's loss to the Redskins saw them put up a respectable 364 yards at 5.1 per play. 8* Over Bears/Lions

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): While Golden State's year-to-year decline may be unlike anything we've ever seen, there are actually TWO Western powers that have fallen off this year. San Antonio is the other and theirs is a case where the oddsmakers have been very slow to react. Betting against the Spurs is very fruitful as their 3-14-1 ATS record happens to be a league worst. Eventually though, you know there will be a point where the market begins to undervalue them. I believe that time is tonight as they are just a small favorite hosting Minnesota. Lay the number here.

Despite currently being 7th in the Western Conference, the T'wolves are a slightly below average team from where I sit. They did just clobber the Hawks down in Atlanta, 125-113, as a 4.5-point favorite. But before that they'd dropped four of five - all of those losses coming at home. They actually trailed by 10 at halftime vs. the Hawks. Like the Spurs, there are legit concerns over Minnesota's defense. They also are allowing 115 PPG, which is a high number. It's strange that the T'wolves are 6-2 SU on the road and just 3-5 SU at home. I don't see their winning ways away from home continuing, however. They are just 9-51 SU all-time here in San Antonio, including 11 straight losses. 

From 11/9 to 11/2, the Spurs were 0-8, the worst ever losing streak under Greg Popovich. They snapped that streak w/ a 111-104 win over the sorry Knicks on Saturday. But then they reverted back to their losing ways Monday against the Lakers. Still, I don't mind that loss and neither did Popovich, who seemed pleased w/ his team's effort against one of the league's best teams. "It was the first game after a long road trip, and that's always tough," said Popovich. "All in all, I was pleased with a lot of things that I saw. We're on the right track." I'll take the coach's word for it. All three Spurs' ATS wins have come as favorites. Minnesota is 0-3-1 ATS off a DD win this year. This is a revenge game for San Antonio as they lost by 15 two weeks ago up in the Twin Cities. 10* San Antonio

10* Over Maple Leafs/Red Wings (7:05 ET): Compared to the Metro, the Atlantic Division seems a lot more wide open. Well, Boston (37 points) looks to be running away w/ things and I think it's fair to say you can expect Tampa Bay to be near the top by season's end. But after that, the division is a wide open mess w/ no other team sporting a positive YTD goal differential. The only team you should "write off" at this point is Detroit, who is - objectively speaking - the worst team in the league. Their involvement in this game has me on the Over for one simple reason. They've allowed the most goals in the league.

The Red Wings also carry a six-game losing streak into tonight. During that time, they've been outscored 23-13, which actually isn't as terrible as one might think. But the number of goals they allow is a massive problem. They've allowed 13 more than every team but one (Florida). Having allowed the most goals in the league is compounded by the fact Detroit has also scored the fewest. They were shutout in their last game, a 2-0 loss to Carolina Sunday that found us on the right side. But, as I'm about to get into, they should have their chances to score tonight. 

Toronto has given up the third most goals in the league. They also are allowing plenty of shots per game (33.4), which obviously lends itself to giving up goals. That's the fifth most shots allowed in the league on a per game basis. But the Leafs did score five times in their last game and also tallied five goals the last time they faced Detroit. That 5-2 victory in the Motor City marked the fourth time in the past five meetings that the Over hit. All four Overs saw at least seven total goals scored. Should be a similar deal tonight. 10* Over Maple Leafs/Red Wings

7* Washington (7:05 ET): Florida is currently second in the Atlantic w/ 29 points, but that is not something you should put much stock into here, or moving forward. The Panthers have a -1 YTD goal differential, owed to the fact they have allowed the second most goals overall. Only the worst team in the league (Detroit) has let more in the back of the net. This would seem to be a major problem when getting ready to face a Capitals team that leads the NHL in goals scored. Expect this to be an easy two points for the home team. 

The Caps have lost two in a row for the first time in a well over a month. Before the B2B losses, they had gone 14-2-2 over an 18-game stretch. They still lead the Metro mind you w/ 37 points. While they were thoroughly outplayed in a shocking 4-1 loss to the Rangers seven days ago, the 2-1 loss to Vancouver on Saturday (went to a shootout) clearly was a game they should have won. Adding to the Caps motivation here is the fact they've lost three straight time to the Panthers at home. That's not something you'd expect. 

Florida also comes into tonight having dropped two straight. Par for the course, they allowed nine goals in losses to Carolina and Buffalo. Both teams may be in similar situation, but the favorite is clearly better positioned to bounce back. Washington also has had three days off, a situation where they are 2-0 SU this year. This is an elite offensive club facing one of the worst defensive clubs in the league. 7* Washington

10* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Central Michigan enters this game at 5-1, but hasn't yet beaten an opponent of any real substance. Three of the Chippewas' five wins came against non-board teams while the other two were at the expense of Sam Houston State and Miss Valley State. In their only loss, they were blown out at Minnesota 82-57 as 10-pt underdogs. So it easy to see why the oddsmakers would be a little skeptical of them here at DePaul Tuesday night. But my own personal power rankings indicate the spread for this game should be much lower. Take the points. 

DePaul is unbeaten at 6-0 w/ wins over Iowa (were 9.5-pt dogs) and most recently, Boston College. Both Power 5 wins came on the road. This is the Blue Demons' best start in 33 seasons. That 1986-87 team started 16-0 en route to 28-3 and a Sweet 16 appearance. Eventually the accomplishments of that season had to be vacated due to NCAA rules violations, but it was still probably the best DePaul team ever. I'm not ready to put this group on par w/ that one. 

These schools actually just met in March w/ DePaul winning a 1st round CIT matchup 100-86 as 6.5-pt favorites. That game was played right here in Chicago, so as you can see, oddsmakers have definitely boosted the Blue Demons' rating. I remain unconvinced. Central Michigan leads the country in scoring right now (99.7 PPG!) and also turns their opponents over on more than one-quarter of possessions, good for 26th. I know the Chips were held to just 57 by Minnesota, but I don't see that happening again here. They led DePaul 33-21 in the first half of that game last March. One of the Blue Demons' starting guards, Devin Gage, sprained his ankle in practice last week and his status remains in limbo. 10* Central Michigan 

10* Under Western Michigan/Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): For Western Michigan, the mission is simple here. Win and you are the MAC West Division Champs. Lose and you open the door for Central Michigan, who plays Friday (at home vs. Toledo). The Broncos come into this game at 7-4 SU and winners of three straight. They've averaged an impressive 40.3 PPG during the win streak, however, it should be pointed out that before the L2 both went Over, WMU's previous five contests were all Unders. That's the way I'm thinking here as we're "due" for a low-scoring game Tuesday night in DeKalb. 

At 4-7 SU, Northern Illinois has been reduced to the role of spoiler in this regular season finale. This is one of the weaker Huskies teams in years and it'll be just the second time in the last decade that they're NOT going bowling. A big problem has been the offense, which has been held to just 23.4 PPG this year. They scored only 17 in a blowout loss to Eastern Michigan last week. On the bright side, the defense often "shows up" here at home (not last week) where it is allowing only 20.5 PPG. Last week saw NIU give up 24 pts in the 3Q w/ 10 of those coming off two turnovers that led to short fields.

Western Michigan had to go to OT last week to pick up its first road win of the season. The Broncos beat Ohio 37-34, a game which was 10-0 in their favor at halftime. The previous week saw another high scoring 2nd half, primarily the 4Q, against Ball State. They very easily could be coming into this game on a 7-game Under streak. NIU has gone Over in six straight, a streak I can't see continuing as their defense only allows 270 YPG at home for the season. Western Michigan's offense declines greatly on the road, down to 27.6 PPG. 10* Under Western Michigan/Northern Illinois

10* Over Ravens/Rams (8:20 ET): This is a much different Rams team than we’re accustomed to seeing under HC Sean McVay, especially on the offensive side of things. McVay’s first two years here brought back memories of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” but 2019 has seen QB Jared Goff regress to a level not seen since he was a rookie operating under a different coaching staff. At least the Rams defense has held up their “end of the bargain” recently, giving up a league-low 11 PPG the last four weeks. That’s allowed for a 3-1 SU record, but Monday night they are underdogs against Baltimore team that leads the league in scoring at 34.1 PPG. With the Ravens’ offense doing most of the “heavy lifting,” look for this game to go Over.

Those last four games have seen the Rams’ defense go up against Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Chicago. Every single one of those opponents has had issues at the QB position. Baltimore has no issues w/ Lamar Jackson now the betting favorite to win league MVP. With Jackson passing and running, the Ravens have scored 30+ pts in four straight games. They scored a total of 90 in just the L2 games. Perhaps the most impressive thing of all with this Ravens’ offense is that they are averaging 38.4 PPG on the road! Remember the Rams gave up 55 at home to the 3-7 Bucs earlier this year. 

While I believe Baltimore will be playing a significant role in this game going Over, don’t discount what the Rams can do either. I know they are not what they’ve been the last two seasons, but they’ve faced two tough defenses the last two weeks. Baltimore’s D is giving up 5.8 yards per play. The Rams will get back WR Brandin Cooks this week, which should help not just Goff, but also fellow wideout Cooper Kupp. This Rams offense has had some rough days when facing some of the league’s top defenses, but they also have scored at least 27 points in half their games. I don’t consider the Ravens an elite team defensively anymore. 10* Over Ravens/Rams

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Just when you thought Vancouver's hot start to the season had been exposed, they go out and pull B2B upsets on the road. They won at both Nashville and Washington, the latter coming in a shootout. Speaking of shootouts, this is a rematch of a game that went to one as Vancouver ended up winning 3-2 back on October 12th. The Flyers have struggled all season in shootouts (league leading 8 losses in them), but at the same time they've only been beaten  in regulation one time here at home. Off a tough loss to Calgary (in a shootout, of course), I look for the Flyers to bounce back and get two points tonight. 

The Canucks were big underdogs on the ML in these last two victories. Cashing in at +145 and +160 may look nice, but both wins were somewhat fluky. Beating Nashville 6-3 on Thursday saw Vancouver tally FIVE power play goals in a game they were outshot 48-23. The 2-1 win over Washington on Saturday not only went to a shootout, it also marked the 1st time all season that the Canucks won a game in which they scored two or fewer goals. Bottom line: I don't see them pulling a 3rd straight upset on the road.

Philly has dropped five of six overall w/ three of those five losses a part of those league-leading eight in shootouts. Saturday's 3-2 setback at the hands of a Calgary team that had NOT been playing well saw the Flyers blow a late lead in regulation. They outshot the Flames 38-27. It was a game they should not have lost, plain and simple. The Flyers are averaging 3.4 goals per game at home while the Canucks only average 2.6 on the road. That's a more sizable difference than you think. 10* Philadelphia

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Certainly, the Nikola Vucevic injury matters for the Magic. He is second on the team in scoring and the leading rebounder. Any time you lose a player that averages a "double-double," it hurts - literally and figuratively. PF Aaron Gordon is also out w/ an ankle injury. so the Magic are really hurting down low. But this line seems like an overreaction. We've recently seen oddsmakers do the same thing w/ the Raptors, who are still winning despite injuries. Orlando is a better team than Detroit and I'll take the points.

With Vucevic and Gordon both out, one thing the Magic can continue to rely on is their defense. They are allowing just 102.9 points per game, the lowest average in the Eastern Conference. Some of that is owed to the fact they play at the slowest pace in the league, in terms of number of possessions per game. But that's also an excellent "underdog strategy" to adopt (playing slow, that is) and should suit them well here. The Magic have yet to win a road game this year, but you have to figure that first one is coming. They only lost by five at Indiana two nights ago. 

Detroit isn't exactly playing well right now either. They've lost six of seven w/ the only win coming against a bad Atlanta team. The Pistons were held to 90 points in a blowout loss to Milwaukee on Saturday, a game which Blake Griffin sat out for rest purposes. Griffin is expected back here, but there are other injuries the team is dealing with. At 5-11 SU, the Pistons aren't a team you can really trust as a favorite. So far, they are 2-4 SU and ATS as chalk. They have just three wins this season by more than four points. 8* Orlando 

10* Butler (7:00 ET): In an amazing coincidence, both Butler and Minnesota are coming off wins over Wofford and Morehead State by a combined 37 points. It doesn't stop there, however. Each team beat Wofford by 19 (Butler 80-61, Missouri 75-56) and Morehead State by 18 (Butler 68-50, Missouri 70-52)! Butler won its first two games by a combined 59 pts, beating IUPUI 80-47 and New Orleans 79-53. Missouri won its first two games by a combined 55 points, beating Incarnate Word 82-42 and Northern Kentucky 71-56! 

The only difference then is that Butler has a win over a major conference team, 64-56 against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite. Missouri lost by five at Xavier as a 5.5-pt underdog. Each of those games saw the ATS result decided by one-half point. So it seems like a pretty even battle tonight in Kansas City as part of the Hall of Fame Classic. But I've got Butler rated as the better team by a few points. I like them as an underdog. 

Both teams have been excellent defensively. Missouri actually ranks #6 in the country right now in defensive efficiency. No opponent has shot above 38.0% against the Tigers. But four of the five opponents were likely to anyway. Butler has the edge offensively in this matchup. They have four players averaging double figures. Missouri had only two players in double figures in their last game. Through the years, Butler has excelled in these neutral court games, going 77-43 ATS. 10* Butler