8* Buffalo (7:05 ET): While the postseason was long ago rendered a pipe dream for Arizona, Buffalo still has an outside shot at grabbing one of the final spots in the Eastern Conference. Finishing in the top three of the Atlantic seems tough, but only six points back of the second Wild Card should give them hope. That all being said, the Sabres certainly aren't playing like a team that wants to compete for Lord Stanley's Cup. They come into tonight on a four-game losing streak, one of the setbacks coming at the hands of these very Coyotes. Tuesday was even more disappointing as they blew a 4-2 lead here at home to Nashville and fell in overtime. But considering how bad the 'Yotes are, I can't see the Sabres losing to them twice within a week.

Arizona is clearly the second worst team in the league, better than only Colorado (another team that beat Buffalo recently). They have the second fewest points and the second worst goal differential. They are 27th in goals scored and 29th in goals allowed. Special teams are no help as they rank 27th on the power play and 25th on the penalty kill. After beating Buffalo on Sunday, they dropped a game in Boston by a score of 4-1 on Tuesday. That latest loss saw Alexander Burmistrov stretchered off after a brutal hit from the Bruins' Colin Miller. Goaltender Mike Smith continued his miserable season by allowing four goals on 14 shots and was yanked. His save percentage his L4 starts is now .856 and he's likely to be in net again here. Arizona has the worst shot differential in the league and because they allow so many, Smith rarely has a "fighting chance." The Coyotes were sellers at the trade deadline, so they're an even weaker team now.

Not only did the Sabres blow a two-goal advantage (twice!) against Nashville Tuesday, the same held true Sunday at Arizona. That and the loss that preceded it (at Colorado) were very damaging for a team on the fringes of playoff contention. That's what makes tonight so important. Goaltending woes have been a concern recently, but at least Robin Lehner has a .925 save percentage at home. Arizona has been a dreadful road team as well, getting outscored by a frightening 1.3 goal per game margin, which has translated into an 8-19-4 record. One key edge for the Sabres in this game is that their power play ranks fourth in the league. Having gone just 2 for their last 17 when on the man advantage, don't be surprised if they notch one or two here. 8* Buffalo

8* UNLV (11:00 ET): The two Mountain West teams in question here experienced VERY different results in their respective last games. Of course, that means we can use those to our advantage as the team that experienced the much more unpleasant result (that would be UNLV) is now available at a far more affordable price than they ought to be. The Runnin' Rebels were run right off the court Saturday by Nevada, losing 94-58 here in Las Vegas. It was the Rebels' NINTH straight loss as clearly this program has fallen on hard times. As for Utah State, they are off an 89-58 drubbing of Air Force. Tonight marks the Aggies' regular season finale while UNLV still has one game left, at Fresno State, on Saturday. As bad as things have gotten for the Rebels, it is pretty shocking to see USU in the road favorite role. I'll take the points.

Utah State has nothing to play for here. The Aggies have won their last two games, which has created some distance between themselves and the bottom two in the MWC, San Jose State and UNLV. After a 2-6 SU start in conf play, USU has won five of nine. As I just stated, they've won two straight. One would have to go back to the non-conference portion of the schedule (when they were facing a series of non-board teams) to find the last time the Aggies won three in a row (Dec 6-19). This is just the second time they've been able to pull off B2B conference wins. After winning at San Jose State last Wednesday, the Aggies played by far their most complete game in MWC play, crushing Air Force by 31 in Logan. They shot nearly 60 percent from the field in that game, a far cry from what we've seen most of this season, especially on the road. For the record, the Aggies shoot just 43% from the field away from home and are 3-10 SU in those games. Tonight marks the first (and only) time this year that they will be a road fave.

Like Utah State on Saturday, I'm hoping Senior Night motivates UNLV to their strongest showing of the year. Clearly, it can't get any worse than what happened here on Saturday. Four of the Rebels' last five losses have now come by double digits. They haven't been a good shooting team this year, but recent opponents haven't been missing either. I know it was a 79-63 final when these teams met in Logan two months ago, but will Utah State really make 13 three-pointers again tonight? I think not. I also think that the Aggies may not be fully invested in this game being that it is their reg season finale. 8* UNLV

8* Boston (8:05 ET): This is a very important game for the Celtics as far as establishing themselves in the Eastern Conference hierarchy. They've already gotten a break w/ Toronto losing Kyle Lowry for the remainder of the regular season. One would now think the Celtics are a lock for the #2 seed in the East, though Washington may have something to say about that. Still, the team Boston is more concerned with is Cleveland, whom they trail by four games entering tonight's showdown. The Cavs had a great February, losing only two of 11 games and LeBron James didn't play in one of the losses. But it was also somewhat of an easy schedule and they haven't been on the road since the All-Star Break. They are 0-6 ATS this season coming off three or more consecutive home games.

Boston did itself no favors on Monday, losing here at home to Atlanta by a score of 114-98. They were 4.5-pt favorites. While the loss looks bad, note it was the second game of a back to back. They'd won in Detroit the previous night. Truth be told, neither of those L2 games were good shooting nights for the Celtics. Critical to Monday's loss was Isaiah Thomas going just 4 of 21 from the field. I expect both him and the team to improve tonight against a Cleveland defense that is nothing more than middle of the road. In fact, the defending World Champs come into this game ranked a pretty ugly 20th in defensive efficiency. Boston averages a strong 109.5 points per game at home for the year. Though it hasn't been enough, in two games vs. Cleveland this year, they've averaged 120 PPG.

Both Cavs wins over the Celtics this season saw strong efforts from Kevin Love, who is not in the lineup right now. The Champs have bolstered their roster in recent days, but it may take a bit for the new pieces (Deron Williams, etc) to gel. The Cavs have actually been outscored on the road this year (give up 108.4 PPG!), so I'm not sure they should be favored here. The two earlier season meetings w/ Boston were both played in Cleveland. The Celtics are 5-2 ATS following a double digit loss this year and considering they're off a home loss and have a five-game West Coast swing looming, motivation should be high for the home team in this nationally televised affair. 8* Boston

10* Over Mavericks/Hawks (7:35 ET): This is a VERY low total by 2017 NBA standards. In the entire month of February, there were only FOUR games to close w/ a total of 199 pts or less. The last three all went Over the total (more on those in second). In fact, going back to January 20th, seven of the eight times we've seen a total close at 199 pts or less, the game has gone Over. The last two times this situation presented itself, these two teams happened to be involved. In each case, the opponent for Atlanta and Dallas was Utah. On Feb 6, Atlanta was blitzed by Utah 120-95 (here at home), so that was an easy Over. Three days later, Dallas hosted the Jazz and it was a 112-105 game (in their favor). There has not been a total of 199 pts or less since, a span of almost three weeks! Despite recent results on both sides, I'm on the Over here.

Both teams, as you might expect, come into this game riding long Under streaks. Hence, the low total. Dallas has actually gone Under six straight times. They've failed to break 100 pts in the last five games, something that is exceedingly rare in today's NBA. They still rank near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency, but their numbers are actually up significantly after a terrible start to the year. The team's total points per game average still exceeds tonight's O/U line. The last four times the Mavs have seen an O/U line lower than 199 points, the Over has cashed. While they scored only 82 pts in a meeting earlier this season vs. Atlanta, it was a poor shooting night all-around and they didn't have Seth Curry in the lineup.

The Hawks have gone Under five straight times.  But consider that their home games this year have averaged right around 210 PPG! These last five games have seen the Hawks average only 96.6 PPG, which is well below their season average of 103.4 PPG. They've shot just 41% those L5 games, a number which should drastically improve tonight due to Dallas' defensive numbers on the road (48.6% FG against including 41.2% from three-point range). Atlanta has gone Over its last three times when the total is below 200 pts. They scored 114 points in an upset of Boston Monday night. The total here is far lower than what we usually see for a Hawks game. In fact, the last three times we've seen an O/U line below 200 pts with them involved, the Over has cashed. 10* Over Mavericks/Hawks

10* St. Joseph's (7:00 ET): It has been an absolutely miserable season for St. Joe's, one that has seen them lose numerous players to injury. It's a sharp contrast to last year when they were one of the top ATS teams in the entire country. Entering tonight's home finale, the Hawks have lost eight in a row. Saturday's 61-60 loss at St. Louis (were favored by 4.5) was probably the most embarrassing setback of them all. Rather than attempt to tie the game (were down three w/ only seconds remaining), James Demery elected to make a simple layup, leaving his team w/ a one-point loss. The result also leaves St. Joe's tied w/ Duquesne for the bottom spot in the Atlantic 10 Conference. But if there's anything that could provide a little boost to this downtrodden program right now, it's Senior Night. I'll take the points.

Rhode Island provides the opposition for St. Joe's tonight. While they destroyed the Hawks 88-58 in the first meeting (back on 1.3), this is obviously a road game. The Rams have won their L4 A-10 roadies plus are coming off a big 69-59 home victory over VCU on Saturday. They are trying to lock down the #3 seed for the upcoming conference tourney. But might they be coming into this game a little overconfident? Neither they nor their opponents have shot the ball well these L5 games. Remember that this is a team that lost 53-43, at home, to Fordham not that long ago. URI couldn't miss the first time they played St. Joe's, hitting an incredible 16 of 30 three-point attempts. For the year, they average just six makes per game from behind the arc. They'll score a lot less in tonight's rematch. 

While St. Joe's has not won since late January, they've generally been competitive. Four of the previous seven losses have been by seven points or fewer. As bad as things have gotten, this is just the fourth time we find the Hawks getting points at home this year. Not only that, but it will be the MOST points that they've gotten in any home game so far. Rhode Island's win over VCU coupled with their "bubble" status has them overvalued in this situation. 10* St. Joe's

10* Under Hurricanes/Lightning (7:05 ET): Tampa Bay treated me quite well in their last game, which was a 5-1 win here on home ice over Calgary. They again appear to be a sharp side tonight, but I feel the more prudent play is on the Under as Carolina comes calling. Yes, the Hurricanes have had their problems between the pipes all season. But what they do bring to the table is the league's top ranked penalty kill (86 percent). The power play was critical to the Lightning's success Monday night (3 for 3!) and they are actually second best in the league when on the man advantage this season. I look for Carolina to neutralize that strength here tonight and it's not like the 'Canes offense (23rd in goals per game) is to be feared. Therefore, I am on the Under.

While TB is off a win, Carolina is off a loss. They fell 3-2 at Florida last night, a game that went to a shootout. Despite the extended play, the 'Canes finished the game w/ only 25 shots on goal. Aside from a 3-0 shutout of Ottawa back on 2.24, recent times have been unkind to this team. They've scored two goals or fewer in seven of the last eight games, twice being shutout. On the bright side, only one of those last eight games has seen more than eight total goals scored. The goaltending has been better overall of late, whether it's been Cam Ward or Eddie Lack starting. Shot suppression has never been an issue for this team as they are actually tied for fourth in the league in that department, allowing only 27.9 per game. The Under is 7-2 this season when the Canes are playing in the second of back to back games. 

Tampa Bay just traded away its long-time goaltender Ben Bishop. But as I stated in my analysis for the Ottawa game, expect things to be just fine between the pipes here. The franchise can still call upon Andrei Vasilevskiy, who showed what he is capable of by making 39 saves Monday night. Vasilevskiy was the one in goal when these teams faced off back on New Year's Eve, a 3-1 win for the Lightning where he made 26 saves. The only other time these teams met this season was earlier in December and that was a 1-0 Carolina win.  Again, don't look for that Lightning power play to be as prolific tonight facing the top PK unit in the league. The Lightning have scored just three even strength goals the L2 games. They have just one in the two matchups with Carolina this season. 10* Under Hurricanes/Lightning

10* Los Angeles (9:05 ET): This shapes up as a near desperation spot for the Kings, who lost in overtime last night. Either them or Calgary likely makes the playoffs (maybe both?), but the way things stand right now, LA would not be in the top eight. Last night's 5-4 loss at Minnesota leaves them five points back of the Flames and also two points back of the Blues for the final Wild Card spot. There's no shame in leaving w/ a "loser's point" when playing the Wild, but the reality is the Kings need to start winning games. Tonight is a big game, not only for playoff implications, but also because it marks the debut of the recently acquired Ben Bishop in goal. I'm backing the Kings.

From Los Angeles' perspective, Calgary is in an eviable position. The Flames have won four straight and hold the top Wild Card spot w/ 70 points. However, they've still been outscored over the course of the season and statistically aren't that impressive. They were actually outshot badly in each of the L2 games, wins over Florida and Carolina. Getting the puck on net w/ any kind of regularity is always a chore against the Kings, who again lead the league in fewest shots allowed per game. Against Carolina Sunday, the Flames were outshot 35-24 even though they won 3-1. Shockingly, they went 4-0-1 on the recently completed road trip, but this recent scoring surge is something I don't see continuing. 

The Kings have given up more shots than usual the L2 games. However, their shot differential per game is still #2 in the entire league. Jonathan Quick was the one in goal those last two games and while he was sharp in his return (after a four-month absence) against Anaheim on Saturday, he was less than stellar last night. That paves the way for Bishop to make his Kings debut tonight. Acquired from the Lightning, Bishop is by no means having a career year, but ironically, he had been playing better than ever right before getting dealt (.953 save percentage in Feb). The Kings have dominated their division rival the L2 seasons, taking all five meetings, including a 5-0 shutout back in November. 10* Los Angeles

8* Providence (8:30 ET):  Major revenge spot here for the Friars, who lost 64-63 to DePaul earlier in the year, on a last second three-point play. Up until last week, that was the Blue Demons' lone win in Big East play! (They beat Georgetown two points Wednesday). Both teams have been hot at the betting window, Providence especially, but considering the revenge angle and their "bubble status," I expect a rout from the home team here. This is the final home game and Senior Night for Providence, so clearly all the motivational factors you look for, are present here. Lay the points. 

Admittedly, Providence has done most of its damage at the betting window as an underdog. It's not often we find them favored and this will easily be the most points they've been asked to lay to any Big East opponent. But that makes sense given that they are hosting the last place team. They are just 2-2 SU/ATS as a fave in conf play, but did cover the last time in the role, which was a 75-63 home win over Xavier. In that first meeting w/ the Blue Demons, they led by nine at halftime, but were ultimately undone by 20 turnovers. They haven't turned it over that many times in a game since. In Saturday's 73-69 win over Marquette, they rallied from a double digit deficit, a huge win. Seeking revenge for a road loss, the Friars are now 6-1 ATS this season. They have also covered their last seven games overall! 

So DePaul's two conference wins have come by a total of three points. They are being outscored by 11.5 points per game in Big East play and average only 62.7 PPG on the road. Look for them to struggle again offensively tonight as Providence is giving up only 63.8 PPG at home this year. After being competitive in both games last week (lost by only three at home to Seton Hall on Saturday), look for the Blue Demons to revert back to past form. They'd lost five straight by double digits before the win over Georgetown. While a perfect 4-0 ATS the L4 games, two of those saw them come in as large underdogs. Providence knows they let one "slip away" the first time these met and isn't about to let that happen again. 8* Providence

8* Creighton (8:00 ET): It is not a good scene right now in Omaha. Creighton's starting point guard Maurice Watson has been arrested for alleged sexual assault and less important is that the team is on a two-game losing streak. This is the backdrop for the home finale tonight against St. John's. Clearly, it would be easy to dismiss the Blue Jays as double digit favorites here, but the contrarian in me sees an opportunity to "buy low." The Blue Jays remain one of the most efficient offenses in the game and note that Watson had actually been out dating back to Feb 6 due to a season-ending knee injury. So while the latest news is very serious, the team had already been w/o him for several games. St. John's does not scare me, particularly on the road. Lay the points.

Now there are signs that missing Watson was significantly hurting Creighton. They've lost five of nine overall, including three of five since his knee injury. But several of those losses were close, most notably a 68-66 loss to Providence last Wednesday, which was the last time the Blue Jays played a home game. Few teams are going to win at Villanova, which is where they played over the weekend. That 79-63 loss is a little misleading in the sense that it was actually a tie game at halftime. The only other time this season that Creighton found itself coming off B2B losses was on January 28th when they routed DePaul. They have covered 14 of their last 18 games against teams w/ a losing record. They come in averaging 84.3 PPG at home and already beat St. John's earlier in the year, 85-72 as seven-point road favorites. 

The road has generally been unkind to the Johnnies. Six of their seven Big East road games have resulted in double digit losses. They are off a win over Georgetown, but that was at home. They can thank 22 Hoyas' turnovers for that one, not to mention the fact they were able to shoot 7 of 13 from three-point range. I would not expect to see a repeat of either of those numbers here tonight against a desperate and motivated Creighton side. In that first meeting, Creighton really dominated and led by 18 at the half. Chris Mullin's bench could be a little thinner than normal here as Darien Williams is questionable w/ an ankle injury. 8* Creighton

10* Utah (8:05 ET): Incredibly, I still think most bettors are severely underrating the Jazz. I took them Sunday and "all they did" there was hand Washington its first regulation loss at home in over two months! Impressively, it was a game Utah dominated throughout. They led by as many as 24 in the second half. They destroyed the Wizards on the glass and got to the free throw line far more frequently. Gordon Hayward led the way w/ 30 pts, but let's not "sell short" Rudy Gobert's performance as the Frechman had 15 pts, 20 rebounds and four blocks, a very nice statline. The Jazz have not only posted three straight double digts wins, but they continue to lead the league in points allowed (95.4) and I think are a great bet tonight in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder also come into tonight riding a three-game win streak. But their 118-110 win over New Orleans Sunday was a little tougher than the final score seems to indicate. Russell Westbrook did have 41 points and another triple double, but that final margin represented the most points OKC led by the entire game. It wasn't until the final minutes that they started to pull away. In fact, it was no more than a two possession game (w/ the Pelicans leading) most of the game. As I've mentioned many times before, the Thunder's offensive efficiency has gone down the toilet w/o Kevin Durant. The team ranks a shocking 20th in that category and is actually being outscored on a per possession basis over the course of the season. Tonight marks a big step up in class from the three previous opponents: New York, the Lakers and New Orleans. 

Utah has revenge here for a two-point home loss last month. They are 70-42 ATS in all revenge situations the L3 seasons, including 36-11 if the loss was at home. Rodney Hood did not play for the Jazz in that last meeting. Utah is a solid road team (17-11 straight up!) and they are 2-0 SU/ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. I just don't like this Thunder team beyond Westbrook and Victor Oladipo remains unavailable. Look for OKC to struggle offensively in this matchup. 10* Utah

10* Over Heat/Mavericks (8:35 ET): Both of these proud franchises (met in the 2011 NBA Finals) appeared on their way to massive rebuilding seasons early on. The famed "Big 3" of Miami (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) are all long. But after an 11-30 start to the season, the Heat shockingly ripped off 13 consecutive wins and covers to get back into the playoff race. They did lose to both Philadelphia and Orlando before the All-Star Break, but then upset Houston as 10-point dogs. They've continued to surge w/ wins over both Atlanta and Indiana in convincing fashion to start the second half. Dallas probably dug itself far too great a hole to get back in the Western Conference race, but similar to Miami, they've been a lot better over the last month or so. Since starting 10-24, they've gone a respectable 13-11 in the New Year. 

By 2017 standards, tonight's game has a very low total. The average total for a Miami game this year has been 203.8 while it's been right at 200.0 for Dallas. So from these teams perspective, it's not that low. Both are in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency, though the Mavericks have actually risen up significantly after that awful start. Dallas also ranks near the bottom of pace of play. Their last five games have all stayed Under w/ neither they or the opponent scoring 100 pts in each of the last three. They beat New Orleans 96-83 on Saturday as the Pelicans got next to nothing outside of its top two superstars. Thus the total here is low. It also helps that the last five meetings between these two have all stayed Under.

Part of Miami's incredible 13-game run was a 99-95 home win over Dallas back on January 19th. That also marks the last time the Heat have failed to score at least 100 pts in a game. It's been a total turnaound the past month or so and they are averaging over 110 PPG their last five contest. It should be noted that it's been almost three weeks since we've seen a NBA game w/ any total this low. Most have involved Utah, but the Mavs have been involved in four such games w/ a total of 200 pts or less, two of them vs. the Jazz. The Over is 7-1 the L8x we've seen a NBA Total at 200 pts or less going back to January 20th. I anticipate both defenses will regress coming off strong performances. 10* Over Heat/Mavericks

10* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): The Atlantic Division is nowhere near as strong as its counterpart in the Eastern Conference, the Metro. This is a point I've harped on all season long. The four top teams in the Conference all reside in the Metro and quite frankly they may be the top four teams in the entire NHL. Over in the Atlantic, Montreal has led most of the way, but Ottawa is now "hot on their heels," just two points back. The Senators won last night, in Florida, by a score of 2-1. While this marks the second night of a back to back for them, the Lightning have patiently been waiting in the wings ever since Thursday's 3-2 home loss to Calgary. With the last three days off, that's a big advantage and I see TB exacting revenge for a 5-2 home loss to Ottawa last month.

The Senators are not particularly dominant in any one area. They've actually been outshot in each of the previous three games, so winning twice should be considered at least a little bit fortunate. They've scored only four times in the three games as well, so credit the goaltending, specifically Craig Anderson, who has been the one between the pipes for all three games. But with this being the second game of a back to back and the team's fourth road game in the last six days, expect Mike Condon to be the one in net tonight. Condon is pretty average and lost his last start (2/19 vs. Winnipeg) when he was able to stop only 17 of 20  shots. He did beat the Lightning earlier this month, but only faced 21 shots there.

Tonight's game is the start of a new era for Tampa Bay as longtime goaltender Ben Bishop was dealt to the Kings at the deadline. That makes Andrei Vasilevsky the new unquestioned #1. Many may read this as a sign of "waving the proverbial white flag," but as I've said before Bishop's overall level of play had fallen this year. While the team's record w/ Vasilevsky in net could definitely be better, the #19 pick in the 2012 Draft certainly offers a lot of promise. Ottawa has won only one time this year after playing three consecutive road games and it came early on (November 1st), at home, against Carolina. Tonight matches their longest road trip of the year. The first time they wrapped up a four-game swing was on the West Coast vs. Anaheim, back on Dec 11. They lost that game 5-1. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Virginia (7:00 ET): North Carolina is as hot as any team in the country currently. They should find themselves in the Top 5 when the new poll is released later today. It's been four straight wins and covers for the Tar Heels, one of them being a 65-41 destruction of Virginia in Chapel Hill. Tonight is the rematch at John Paul Jones Arena. The Hoos picked up a much needed win Saturday, turning in one of their better offensive efforts in some time at the expense of hapless NC State. I also happen to fell that Tony Bennett's team is underrated as I still consider them among the top 20 in the country. The revenge angle is strong here and as I suspected might happen UNC comes in as an underserved favorite. Virginia is still the top defensive team in the country. Take the points. 

When these teams met nine days ago in Chapel Hill, it was all Tar Heels. Virginia had an atrocious shooting night, making only 27.8% of their overall field goal attempts, including 2 of 10 from three point range. It was a 65-41 final, a game where UNC was a six-point home favorite. The Virginia offense would again be held below 50 pts in a home loss to Miami last Monday (overtime game!), but then bounced back w/ what was definitely one of the better efforts in sometime. Saturday at NC State saw the Hoos shoot 48.9% overall including a blistering 11 of 16 from three-point range. The team was due to start shooting better and I think Saturday will be a big confidence boost. Defensively, there are no issues here. HC Bennett's "pack line" defense gives up the fewest number of points per game in the country at 55.8. That numbers dips down to 51.1 in home games w/ their oppnents shooting just 36.7%. 

North Carolina followed its win over Virginia by beating Louisville pretty handily last Wednesday. The L'ville game was also at home. Then they went to Pitt on Saturday and won 85-67 as eight-point chalk. Clearly, HC Roy Williams has his team playing well at the right time, but tonight marks the 1st time they've had to play B2B road games in a three day span since ACC play began. Not surprisingly, this will be the 1st time that Virginia has been a home dog all season. In fact, it's been a very long time since they've been a dog to anyone in Charlottesville. Over the L3 seasons, they are 6-3 ATS taking points, all of those being road games. This game means more to Virginia than it does North Carolina, who hosts Duke in the reg season finale on Saturday. 10* Virginia

10* Charlotte (9:35 ET): The Hornets (finally!) won a game yday, beating the depleted Kings 99-85 in Sacramento (closed as 4-pt favorites). I think they're being severely undervalued here in the second game of the back to back against the Clippers. Of course, losing 12 of your previous 13 games straight up while going 2-10-1 ATS will do that. But I made the case yday and will continue to do so today, that right now Charlotte is a great "buy low" team. Some might want to say the same about the Clippers, who are off B2B losses (Golden State and San Antonio), the latest coming in Chris Paul's return to the floor. But Paul being back has driven the price up way too high in my estimation. A SU win, but non-cover for LA is your most likely result here. Take the points.

"Chris hadn't played and you could see that. We played on one side of the floor for most of the night (Friday). It felt like the same way when Blake (Griffin) came back the first game. We were moving, but we just weren't in sync." Those words come by way of Clippers HC Doc Rivers. I agree w/ the notion that it will take some time for Paul to fully integrate himself back into the lineup. He scored 17 points to go along with six rebounds and five assists vs. San Antonio. The 105-97 loss snapped the team's 5-game ATS win streak. This will obviously be the first time laying this many points in awhile. The last two times they were asked to lay 10 or more was against the likes of Orlando and the Lakers. While Paul being back certainly accounts for "something," Charlotte is definitely a higher caliber opponent than those previously mentioned foes. 

The Hornets won Saturday despite shooting only 40% from the floor. They actually led by 21 going into the fourth quarter. That makes it three consecutive games they've taken a double digit lead into the 4Q and all of those games were on the road. They blew the first two, at Toronto and Detroit. However, the vast majority of their losses during the recent skid you'll notice were close games. This team still ranks fifth in the East in point differential and net efficiency rating. While they've had little to no success against the Clippers in recent years, the last meeting was decided by only five points in Charlotte and the Hornets actually checked in as the slight favorite. Good value on the road dog here. 10* Charlotte

8* Utah (5:05 ET):  Washington was perhaps the hottest team in the league going into the All-Star Break. They'd won 18 of 21. So that made Friday's 120-112 loss at Philadelphia somewhat surprising. John Wall turned in his 18th 20-10 (pts-assists) game of the year while Bradley Beal scored a game-high 40 pts. But the rest of the team contributed very little and the Wizards actually trailed by double digits going into the fourth quarter. While Washington is third in the East, tonight's opponent (Utah) is fourth in the stronger West. I don't think that the Jazz get nearly the credit they deserve as they are absolutely a top five team in the entire league, by my ratings. Their second half started w/ a takedown of Milwaukee on the road and this is absolutely an instance of the better team getting points.

Washington has suffered just ONE home loss since December 6th. It came in overtime against Cleveland on Feb 6, a game which saw LeBron James make an insane buzzer beater (falling out of bounds, banked in) at the end of regulation. So it's easy to understand why they are favored here. Utah is surprisingly just 3-11 ATS when priced as an underdog this season as they've averaged only 94.6 PPG in those contests. Their defense also gets significantly worse as they allow 101.7 PPG as opposed to just 93.4 PPG when favored. That being said, it certainly does appear as if the sharp money has spoken on this game w/ the majority of tickets coming in on the Wizards, but the line dropping anyway. To me, it's a pick 'em matchup, even factoring in the home court. While the difference between the teams' offensive efficiencies is somewhat neglibile, the Jazz have a major edge on the defensive end where they rank third in the league in efficiency. 

No team allows fewer points per game than the Jazz. They held Milwaukee to 95 Friday night, the third straight game holding a foe below 100. The only teams in the league giving up fewer points per possession are San Antonio and Golden State and the difference is close. After Utah, there's a pretty large drop off in points per possession. Offensively, they shot 50% against the Bucks and the game was never really in doubt following an 18-2 first quarter run. Washington giving up 120 pts to the 30th ranked team in offensive efficiency (Philly) was not a good look and I'll point out that the Wiz's winning run was built up by playing a LOT of bad teams. 8* Utah

10* Nashville (5:05 ET): Two teams in the Western Conference trying to solidify their standings meet Sunday in the Music City. Edmonton comes in tied for second place in the Pacific Division (74 points) and has a realistic shot at catching first place San Jose. Meanwhile, Nashville is on a bit of shakier ground w/ no realistic shot at moving up from third place in the Central (69 points) and they have St. Louis hot on their heels. So getting the two points here at home shapes up as really critical from the Preds' perspective. While this is the second game of a back to back for them, it's also the Oilers' fifth straight road game over a nine-day span. Interestingly, both teams played Washington their last time out. Edmonton lost 2-1 Friday, but then Nashville won 5-2 last night!

Only two teams in the league can claim fewer home loss in regulation than can the Predators w/ 7. The last two games have been a real contrast in terms of class of opponent. First they hosted lowly Colorado (worst team in the league) and beat them 4-2. Then it was a game vs. the best team in the league (Washington) and they beat them 5-2. Scoring has not been an issue of late as the team's last nine games have all gone Over. Nashville has scored four or more goals themselves in seven of those games! What's really impressive about last night is that they were able to score five times on only 26 shot attempts. That was the sixth straight home game w/ 4+ goals. Granted, they didn't have to face Braden Holtby (Edmonton did Friday). But right now, the Preds have a couple players that are on fire at the offensive end. First and foremost is Filip Forsberg, who has seven goals in three games this week. Following a similar path is Roman Josi, who leads all defensemen in the league w/ six goals and six assists since Feb 4. 

Nashville has already beaten Edmonton twice this season. That extends their head to head win streak to eight straight over the Oilers the L3 seasons. In both wins this season, the Preds' unusual second period dominance (league best +31 goal diff) was the key. Both times saw Pekka Rinne defeat Cam Talbot and that's the goaltending matchup again here. Rinne is due to improve from some lackluster showings, in my opinion, while Talbot is due to regress. The Oilers do have 18 road wins this year, but you have to wonder how much this trip has taken out of them. This is their fourth straight game in the Southeast (long way away from home!) in the last six days. 10* Nashville

10* UAB (1:00 ET): Middle Tennessee is the top dog in Conference USA and truth be told, one of the few mid-majors capable of winning a NCAA Tournament game this year. But this is going to be a tough spot for them visiting UAB. While they've been off since last Saturday, this will be the Blue Raiders' third consecutive road contest. UAB has also been off for a week and the Blazers will undoubtedly treat this as their biggest game of the year. Not just because it's a visit from MTSU, but also because they're desperate to end a season-worst three game losing streak. Prior to a 60-49 loss on New Year's Day, UAB had covered four straight head to head w/ the Blue Raiders. They were 8.5-pt road dogs in that game, so when you factor in the change in venue, this appears to be a really solid value. Take the points.

Middle Tennessee has lost only one conference game and four games total this season. Three of those losses took place before X-Mas, so overall they've won 14 of 15 w/ the only loss coming by three at insanely hot UTEP. They are coming off a 97-point effort vs. Marshall, which was their highest scoring effort against any D-I opponent all season. However, concerning is that they also allowed the Thundering Herd to score 60 pts - in the second half! That win clinched the #1 seed for the upcoming conference tourney, so the Blue Raiders don't have much to play for here down the stretch. That makes them a shaky bet laying points, particularly on the road. Not only is MTSU 0-2 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts, they are 1-4 ATS after scoring 80+ pts. Conference USA has a lot of bad teams, so some of their margins of victory this season aren't really as impressive as you might think.

UAB is just 1-5 SU/ATS in the month of February and they were actually favored in FOUR of those games. So they've certainly been falling short of the oddsmakers' expectations. That's also the case when priced as a dog as their record in that role this season is just 1-6 ATS. But this will be the FIRST time they've gotten points at home all year. They are 10-3 SU here w/ an avg MOV of 13.2 points per game, which is obviously impressive. I view this as an excellent "buy low" opportunity w/ the team shockingly off three straight DD losses. The last two were on the road. Before losing here to Old Dominion on 2.11, the Blazers had won 26 straight C-USA home games! 10* UAB

8* UC Irvine (10:30 ET): I think most people would consider UC Irvine the class of a weak Big West Conference. However, the Anteaters now find themselves in a first place tie w/ UC Davis (both 9-5 SU) after dropping a game on the road Thursday (as 5.5-pt favorites) to Cal State Fullerton, 56-54. It was a game they led by six midway through the second half. Given that they held CS Fullerton to 31.4% from the field for the game, including 4 of 21 from three-point range, it's a game the Anteaters probably feel they "should" have won. An interesting thing I found in breaking down that box score is that while CS Fullerton shot slightly worse than did UC Irvine, they also had 21 more attempts from the field (offensive rebounding!). Rarely do you see a discrepancy like that.

With the Anteaters somewhat desperate to bounce back, the line for tonight's matchup against Cal State Northridge looks far too low to me. Let's start w/ the fact that UC Irvine won the season's first meeting 105-73, on the road! While topping the century mark obviously grabbed the headlines there (season high in points scored), it was also another in a long line of solid efforts on the defensive floor for the Anteaters as well. They held Northridge to just 30.3% shooting for the game. Ranking 37th nationally in points per game allowed (65.1), they allow only 60.6 PPG at home. In terms of field goal percentage defense, the numbers get even more impressive as opponents are shooting only 38.3% against HC Turner's outfit. Meanwhile, CS Northridge's defensive numbers look somewhat horrific in comparison as they allow 81.3 PPG.

Making life even more challenging for the underdog here is that they are now w/o starter Rakim Lubin, who was lost for the season due to an Achilles tear. This will also be the Matadors' second road game in three nights. Thursday, their lousy defense again cost them as they gave up 96 points in an ugly loss at UC Davis. The two road games in three nights scenario tends to be a killer on most College teams more often than not, but having to do so against the top two teams in your league is particularly brutal. Throw in the fact that it's Homecoming tonight on campus and UC Irvine should be extra motivated. It just looks like the oddsmakers were "asleep" in setting a low line for this one. 8* UC Irvine

10* Under T'wolves/Rockets (9:05 ET): Playing the Under when Houston is involved can certainly be tricky. I was happy to see them score a ton Thursday night as they spoiled the debut of DeMarcus Cousins in New Orleans w/ a 129-99 thumping of the Pelicans. I guessed, correctly so, that NO would be overvalued in the wake of the Cousins trade. Of course, let's not sell the Rockets short either; they are - by most objective measures - the third best team in the league right now, behind only Golden State and San Antonio. Much of their success is owed to the James Harden-led offense, which is second in the league in both points per game and efficiency (trailing only GSW in both areas). But, the O/U Line for tonight's game vs. Minnesota looks a bit high to me. Take the Under. 

The T'Wolves, like the Rockets, started their second half w/ a win. Their assignment was far easier though as they hosted Dallas last night. The 95-84 win saw them completely overwhelm the undersized and undermanned Mavs in the paint. It also matched the second fewest pts given up in a game by Minnesota all season. Clearly, we shouldn't expect the defensive numbers to look so rosy here, but it is worth noting that after holding only five of their first 53 opponents below 90 pts, the T'wolbes have now done just that twice in the past five games! Maybe Tom Thibodeau's approach is starting to take hold on this young team, which by the way is better than it's record shows.

Speaking to what looks like an inflated O/U line, the last time these teams met (Jan 11th), the O/U line for that game was "only" 218 pts. It did sneak Over as Minnesota pulled off a surprising 119-105 win at home. It was the eighth time in the past nine head to head meetings that the Over cashed. But the T'wolves scoring dips noticeably on the road and the shift in the total is significant because the Under is 5-1 for them this year when the O/U line is 220 pts or higher. After starting February by going Over in eight straight times, the Under has cashed in B2B T'wolves games. When you add up what both teams score and allow per game, neither total average exceeds what the O/U line is here. 10* Under T'wolves/Rockets

10* Elon (7:00 ET): Today marks the end of the regular season in the Colonial, so all the home teams should be fairly "fired up" on their respective Senior Days. But none more so than Elon, who is trying to solidify its place among the top four in the upcoming CAA Tournament. The Phoenix are off a heartbreaker Thursday night as they fell here at home in double overtime, 105-104, to Northeastern. They fell prey to a freshman, Bolden Brace, hitting 10 three-pointers in a stunning display that led to a career-high 40 points. Losing at home when you score 81 points in regulation and turn the ball over just three times is pretty frustrating. Luckily, Elon will have Delaware to kick around tonight. The Blue Hens are playing their second road game in three days, having just lost at College of Charleston Thursday. It was their second straight double digit defeat. Lay the points. 

Delaware has just five conference wins, putting them in second to last place, ahead of only Drexel. Three of the wins came in a row earlier this month and one of them came at Elon's expense. It was another OT loss for Elon, this one coming by a score of 76-74 as seven-point chalk. That was also the first of three straight wins that all came by two points or less for Delaware. As alluded to above, they have since regressed w/ B2B double digit losses to William & Mary and Charleston. The road has generally been unkind to the Blue Hens this season as they are just 3-13 SU away from home and getting outscored by about 14 PPG. Looking at the line for the first matchup between these teams and then factoring in the change in venue, this looks to be a really solid value on Elon.

Senior Night should obviously have the home team highly motivated here as should Thursday's loss. In the first go around w/ Delaware, the Phoenix shot only 40.7% from the field. We should see a stark rise in offensive production here as they are averaging 82.3 PPG at home this season. But it's largely been the defensive end of the floor where Elon has been excelled this year, at least in CAA play. They are tops in the conference, holding opponents to just 42.3% from the field. Thursday's game vs. Northeastern marked an "off night" as they allowed the Huskies to shoot 50%, the highest percentage by an opponent during the conf schedule. Previously, they'd held 10 of 11 opponents below 45% from the field. They are 9-1 SU this year when holding the opponent below 40%, not a surprising record, but what is key is that Delaware shoots just 39.9% on the road. Elon is also the top defensive rebounding team in the conference. They are 6-1 ATS this season after allowing 80+ points the previous game, so again, this looks like a clear bounce back spot for them. 10* Elon

10* Charlotte (5:05 ET): It appears as if the Hornets are falling apart. I took them on Thursday, getting 4.5 points at Detroit. They led the Pistons by as many 18, but ended up not even covering despite the game going into overtime. This was the second consecutive game where they blew a double digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost. The other was at Toronto right before the Break. As a result, Charlotte now finds itself nine games below .500 and 3.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the East. So, it's now or never. I continue to lean on the fact that they still sport the East's fifth best point differential and sixth best net efficiency rating. Having covered only TWO of their previous 14 games, isn't it about time that the Hornets are just due? Lay the points.

Sacramento surprised everyone on Thursday, winning the 1st game of the post Boogie Cousins era. They were seven-point dogs here at home against Denver. Honestly, I was not all that shocked as you knew they were likely to be written off by the public and oddsmakers in the wake of the debacle that was the Cousins trade. GM Vlade Divac appears to be not very good at his job. Now it's time for reality to set in for the Kings, who aren't likely to be a very competitive team down the stretch. Off a double digit win this year, the team's record is just 1-5 SU and ATS. I don't see them shooting as well as they did Thursday night (52.3%), not w/ the likes of Buddy Hield, Tyreke Evans and Darren Collison being heavily relied upon. It was a break facing Denver, who ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. The Kings rank 24th in that category.

Charlotte has shown that they can play well. At least for three quarters, they looked quite good against both Toronto and Detroit, taking double digit leads into the fourth quarter. Both games were on the road. In my analysis for the Detroit game, I did note the Hornets' awful record when priced as an underdog this year (now 1-16 SU!). Well, they're favored today, so we don't have to worry about that. I continue to believe that the time is right to "buy low" on this team. This is also a revenge spot from a 109-106 home loss last month as seven-point favorites. 10* Charlotte

8* Columbus (5:05 ET): The Blue Jackets were one of the big stories of the 1st half of the season, particularly back in December when they didn't lose a single game. It wound up being a 15-game win streak, but unfortunately they've managed to go just 10-11-1 since. In the brutally tough Metro, they now actually find themselves in fourth place, which is pretty amazing when you think about it. Most NHL observers, myself included, would call this one of the top five teams in the league. Unfortunately though, so are the other top three teams in the Division. In fifth place resides the Islanders, today's opponent for C-Bus. The Isles are desperately trying to make a run for the second Wild Card in the Eastern Conference. They've won three straight, but the gap between them and the Blue Jackets remains quite significant. I feel that the money line here does not properly account for said gap. Take the home team. 

A big edge for the Blue Jackets here is that they have been off since Sunday. That last game saw them lose 4-3 (here at home) to Nashville after rallying back from an early two goal deficit. As disappointing as that loss was, it should have the Jackets motivated here. As you might guess, the long layoff is key to my choice on this matchup. Columbus is a perfect 6-0 this season when taking the ice w/ at least three days rest. They continue to do a good job of getting the puck on the net as well. It's been six straight games w/ at least 32 shots on goal. So, theoretically, they should be winning more. Prior to the Nashville, goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky had pretty much been lights out. He still has a .931 save percentage at home this year. This is also a revenge game for the Blue Jackets as they lost 4-2 up in Brooklyn last month. 

While Columbus has enjoyed plenty of time off leading into this game, the Isles will be playing their third road game in five days. So far, they've won at Detroit and Montreal thanks to giving up just one goal total. But can goaltender Thomas Greiss continue this hot streak of his? I'm not so sure about that. More importantly, it will be difficult for the Isles to score moving forward if the continue to put the puck on net so few times. They've averaged just 23 the L2 games. Note there has previously been four times this season where New York has been on a three-game win streak. They have lost the next time out every time. Columbus is basically a better team in every regard, so while they didn't need the added advantage of all this time off, it definitely helps! 8* Columbus

8* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Raptors were limping (badly) before the All-Star Break, but picked up what I feel was a huge win in their last game, beating Charlotte 90-85. Maybe that doesn't sound all that impressive to you, but consider Toronto was down by 17 entering the fourth quarter and on a three-game losing streak. Tonight's nationally televised contests shapes up as a huge showdown in the Atlantic Division. The public perception is that Boston has surpassed Toronto as the top challenger to Cleveland in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics, in fact, do have a four-game lead in the standings. But the Raptors' net efficiency rating and point differential is better, which indicates this race is nowhere near over. Toronto is also 10-2 SU/ATS vs. division foes including a 2-1 mark vs. Boston. Lay the short number w/ the home team. 

In the month leading up to Break, Toronto went just 5-11 straight up. But they took an abnormal number of close losses. Six were by five pts or less and four were by two points or less! That's what made the rally against Charlotte so important. The Raptors are still 19-10 SU at home this year and outscoring their visitors by a healthy average of 8.5 points per game. One of the most efficient offenses in the league, they average 111.6 PPG at home this year. They also are averaging 113.1 PPG in division contests. This is a revenge spot as they lost in Boston on the 1st of February, 109-104. Previously though, they'd beaten them twice. Overall, they are 8-3 ATS their L11 games vs. the Celtics including 4-1 at home. 

Avery Bradley is still expected to be M.I.A. for Boston, which is a big deal. Yes, they won 11 of 13 going into the Break and last Thursday's loss to Chicago was highly controversial. But their SU record as an underdog is only 6-11 SU and this number is short enough that it probably won't factor in. While Boston stood pat at the trade deadline Toronto added a couple of key pieces in PJ Tucker and Serge Ibaka. They, not the Celtics, are the second best team in the East and I believe they'll use tonight's national showcase to reaffirm that. 8* Toronto

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): Only the atrocious Nets were colder going into the All-Star Break than were the Pacers. Indiana has lost six straight, but still remains in sixth place in the wide open East. Yet, with uncertainly and unhappiness now abound, it is clearly in the team's best interest to end this skid ASAP. Especially considering the number of teams within striking distance. I think the time off will prove to be good for them. While four of the six losses did come here at home, note the Pacers' record here is still an impressive 20-10 SU. They also had to play a pretty hard schedule before the break w/ two games against Cleveland, two against Washington (hottest team in the league) and another vs. San Antonio. With the team's next five game all on the road, I'm figuring the coaching staff has this one labeled as a "must win."

Memphis lost its final game before the All-Star Break, as eight-point favorites, to New Orleans. They too are in sixth place in their conference, although the West is better and so is the Grizzlies' record compared to that of the Pacers. The Grizz figure to battle w/ OKC the rest of the way for the six seed. While I think that the time off for the Pacers was probably for the best, the same cannot be said for Memphis, who has failed to cover both times this year they've played w/ three or more days rest. In fact, they are just 2-8 ATS this year when playing w/ two or more days rest. They're also 3-6 ATS coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Another surprise is that they have a losing record (10-11 SU) vs. the Eastern Conference. Again, not sure Memphis should be getting such respect from the linesmakers here, especially w/ an offense that ranks just 19th in efficiency.

Indiana's recent problems can be tied to a lack of defense. They've given up an average of 116 points per game during the losing streak w/ all six opponents scoring 110 or more. But again, they had to face some of the top offenses in the league during this time. I like the Pacers' chances even more tonight if they get Thaddeus Young back in the lineup. Reportedly, Young went through 5 on 5 drills yesterday and seems ready to go. It's not as if the Pacers have been dominated during the losing streak and it should be pointed out they'd won seven in a row previous to it. I put a lot of stock in that 20-10 SU home record and expect the losing streak to end tonight. 10* Indiana

8* Puck Line Edmonton (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am backing the Oilers at +1.5. Edmonton has improved a lot this year, so it's rare to be able to play them on the PL this way, at least at a reasonable price. Of course, the opponent has something to do with this as Washington comes in - pretty clearly - as the best team in the league. But while the Caps may be 7-1-1 this month and have only five regulation losses at home all year, there's been some good fortune along the way. Approximately half of their games (26 of 59) have been decided by one goal w/ most of those seeing them come out on the winning end. Such a result would be just fine were it to occur again tonight, but I also think the underdog Oilers could win here as well. 

Edmonton has won four of five overall and now finds itself tied for second place in the Pacific Division. It has been an impressive leap up the standings this year for a team that finished w/ only 70 points last year. They've already surpassed that number in 2016-17 and we still have more than a month to go in the regular season. Key to their success has been one of the top road records in the league at 18-10-5. They just won at red hot Florida two nights ago, 4-3. They put 35 shots on goal in the win. This team also recently won at Chicago, so it's not as if they haven't proven they can beat the top teams on the road. Furthermore, the Oilers' record after scoring 4+ goals in their previous game is 11-5 this year. Very early in the season, they beat Washington 4-1 at home. 

Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby has actually struggled some of late w/ a poor .896 save percentage his L4 starts. The teams still won all four times, largely because of an offense which was able to tally 21 goals. I don't see that kind of production being matched tonight as the Oilers' Cam Talbot has been pretty hot of late w/ a .933 save percentage his L4 starts. The Oilers are a surprising 7th in goals allowed. The 4-3 win over Florida on Wednesday marked the 27th time this year that an Edmonton game was decided by just one goal. Their eight shootouts are tied for second most in the league. 8* Puck Line Edmonton (+1.5)

10* Cornell (7:00 ET): Penn should probably not be laying points on the road, against anyone. Granted, the Quakers did just win a pair of road games last week, one of them as a favorite (at Brown). But following what is now a four-game SU/ATS win streak, they certainly seem to be a bit overvalued for this trip to Cornell. Tonight marks the first home game for the Big Red in nearly three weeks. They went just 1-3 SU on the road over the L2 weeks, which included an 82-63 loss at Penn, who were 6.5-pt favorites. That certainly makes this line curious by comparison. It was the Quakers fifth straight win and cover in this Ivy League rivalry, so while history may not be on Cornell's side Friday, the law of averages certainly is. Take the points.

Penn was just 7-12 SU overall before this win streak started two weeks ago. Admittedly, it has been a pretty dominant four-game run. After beating Columbia 70-62 at home exactly two weeks ago, the Quakers have rattled off three straight wins by 16 or more points. Against Cornell, they shot 54.7% from the field (Big Red shot 38.9%). Incredibly, the Quakers 42-14 going into halftime. Needless to say, that kind of advantage happens maybe once or twice all season. The sharpshooting continued last week at both Brown and Yale as Penn finished above 50% from the field in both games, including 57.6% against Brown. To call this stretch of hot shooting "surprising" would be an understatement. For the year, the team is just 284th nationally, averaging only 68.7 points per game. Of course, Yale shooting only 32.8% from the floor on Saturday helped as well. 

This year will see the 1st ever conference tournament in the Ivy League. Only the top four teams make it. Right now, Princeton, Harvard and Yale all appear to be sitting pretty. The fourth spot is absolutely still up for grabs. Thanks to the four-game win streak, Penn is now in position to qualify. But lest we forget, a 4-6 SU record in conference play means that the Quakers started 0-6! Cornell is just one game back at 3-7 SU. I expect the Big Red to play a lot better at home where they average 77.9 PPG for the year. Meanwhile, I expect all these road game to start catching up w/ Penn. 10* Cornell

10* Under Nuggets/Kings (10:35 ET): Sacramento is the butt of all NBA jokes right now for the manner in which it basically "gave away" its lone superstar, DeMarcus Cousins. It certainly does appear as if the old Lakers-Kings rivalry is being renewed in the sense that GM's Phil Jackson (now w/ the Knicks) and Vlade Divac seem intent on outdoing one another in terms of incompetent dealings. But in all seriousness, the Kings are going to be very bad the rest of the way. Their scoring was already declining before trading away Cousins. They failed to break the 100-pt barrier in the final two games before the All-Star Break and have gone Under three straight games overall. They come into tonight averaging "only" 103.0 PPG.

Denver reigns supreme as the top Over team in the league, but this is still a pretty high number, all things considered. Their opponents are a perfect 4-0 Under this season when the O/U line exceeds 220 points. The Nuggets are an incredible 16-5 Over in the same circumstance, which seems unsustainable to me. Note that the previous two seasons saw only TWO Denver games w/ OU lines of 220+! They are last in the league in defensive efficiency, but w/ Cousins gone, Sacramento's leading scorer is Darren Collison at 13.7 PPG! Yikes. So this should be one of the easier defensive assignments of the year, especially now that the Nuggets are back at full health.

Tonight's O/U line is also a sharp increase over the number that linesmakers hung for the previous meeting between these teams. A 120-114 Denver win marked the EIGHTH straight time these teams have conspired to go Over the total, which may explain in part the increase in the total for tonight. But who knows who will be in uniform for the Kings or how they are likely to perform? My guess is "not very well" and in the first game coming out of the All-Star Break, I wouldn't be shocked to see both teams a bit rusty on the offensive end. They can't all go Over for Denver, can they? 10* Under Nuggets/Kings

8* Weber State (9:05 ET): This is a big game in Big Sky country. Weber State once the conference, but has suffered two of its three losses over the past four games. The one that really hurt came last Saturday at home to North Dakota. That allowed the Fighting Hawks to take over first place. Weber State trails by just one-half game, so a win here and they are tied, although UND swept the season series. Not far behind is also Eastern Washington, who is 10-4 SU in Big Sky contests, which puts them one game back of Weber State. When these teams met the first time, Weber State was a NINE-point favorite and I just don't think enough has changed since that time to justify the rather massive swing we're seeing here from the oddsmakers. I'll take the points.

Not only has Weber State suffered a pair of SU losses recently; they've also failed to cover the spread in six straight games. This will be just the second time in conference play that they have been an underdog. The first was all the way back on New Year's Eve when they went to Montana (were +2.5) and won 84-81. Remember that these Wildcats opened Big Sky play 4-0 and 9-1. There have been a number of close calls recently, but I just don't see the justification in making this team a dog in this spot, even on the road. There are no significant injuries to speak of. It's not often that I go w/ the road team in College Hoops, but I'll make an exception here as the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS taking points this year. They were 5.5-pt favorites against North Dakota last Saturday. 

By the metrics, Eastern Washington has been one of the luckier teams in the entire country this season. They are an amazing 5-1 SU in overtime games including three wins in games that went to double or triple overtime! Their only loss over the last five games also came at North Dakota. They've since responded w/ a couple blowout wins over a couple of bad teams, Northern Colorado and Idaho. Even there, the Eagles experienced a bit of "luck" as those two teams combined to shoot below 35% from the field. Don't count on that kind of fortune here as Weber State comes in shooting at a 49.5% clip for the year including a lights out 41.9% from three-point range. It took a big second half rally to beat EWU the first time, but still I really disagree w/ this pointspread. 8* Weber State

8* Houston (8:05 ET): As I'd anticipated, New Orleans is being overvalued in the wake of the Boogie Cousins trade. Despite that, the Pelicans could very well still make a run at the 8-seed in the Western Conference. But here, they'll be facing one of the league's top teams and the number is just far too short. Houston is a top five ATS team in the league and has gone 20-8 ATS against foes w/ a losing record. New Orleans, remember, is only 23-34 SU. In the only prior meeting this year, the Rockets won 122-100 as they actually led by that same 22-point margin after one half of play. They were big 12-point home favorites in that game as well. It's going to take time for Cousins and Anthony Davis to gel. Lay the short number w/ the road team here. 

Even before the Cousins trade, New Orleans had created some momentum for itself. They went 3-1 SU/ATS on a four-game road trip, losing only (ironically enough) to Cousins and his old team, Sacramento. They pulled outright upsets over Minnesota, Phoenix and Memphis. But the fact they were a dog against those first two speaks volumes about what the marketplace thought of them. Remember that Cousins has never been part of a winning team. Even Davis, as outstanding as he is, hasn't had a ton of success so far in his NBA career. The team also lost some depth in dealing for Cousins. It's not like they were deep to begin with. Even w/ Davis' presence, the Pelicans' ranked just 27th in the league in offensive efficiency. Davis didn't really get any kind of break over the weekend as he was the MVP of the All-Star Game.

Houston lost its last game - as a 10-pt favorite - to Miami last Wednesday. I chalk that up to the team looking forward to the All-Star Break. They'd been off the three days prior and were on a four-game win streak. Moving forward, I see no reason to not expect this team to solidify its place as one of the three best teams in the West. With James Harden running the show, they obviously can score in bunches. Currently, they are second (only trailing Golden State) in the league, averaging 114.4 PPG. They are fully healthy coming out of the Break w/ Patrick Beverley back and Lou Williams being brought into the fold. At 19-11 ATS, this is one of the top two road teams at the betting windown in the entire league. 8* Houston

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): It sure is nice to have the NBA back, isn't it? Charlotte was a team that did not end the 1st half well. They went into the All-Star Break on a real tailspin. They've covered only two of their last 13 games overall and are just 3-10 SU over that same span. Their final game before the Break was perhaps the most painful result yet as they blew a huge lead in Toronto (outscored 32-10 in 4Q!) and lost 90-85 as six-point pups. Hey, at least they covered! I expect this to be one of the more motivated teams coming out of the Break. Note they still own the East's sixth best net efficiency rating and point differential. That's more than you can say for Detroit, who is 2.5 games up on Charlotte, but also an inferior team according to the numbers. Take the points.

The Pistons had their own struggles in the 1st half, but went into the Break on a 6-3 SU/ATS run. They are clearly a much better team at home (17-11 SU), but they've still been outscored overall over the course of the season. Shooting remains an issue. They are 28th in the league in "true" shooting. They've failed to score 100 pts in three of the last four games. Something to keep in mind is that the team's longest win streak all year is only three games, so sustained success is not something we're seeing in the Motor City. The majority of their recent wins have come against the dregs of the league, such as Philadelphia, the Lakers and Dallas. There was also a miracle one-point win at Toronto. Simply put, even after factorinig in home court advantage, I do not believe the Pistons should be favored to this degree. 

Charlotte is clearly in "do or die" mode to start the second half. Their next six games will all be on the road, the next five out West. They do get a break in that they avoid most of the top Western Conference teams on the trip. It is shocking to see the team's record as an underdog is 1-15 straight up. But, again, I expect that to turn around. They have lost two of three to the Pistons this season, but the last meeting (which took place here in Detroit) was a one-point game. A buzzer-beater from Marco Belinelli was disallowed as it came a split second too late. Had it counted, it would have been the punctuation mark on a 47-30 run to close the game. I'm sure the Hornets players will be eager for revenge. They turned it over only five times in that game. 10* Charlotte

10* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): Here we have a team that treated me well earlier in the well against a team that did not. I'll stick w/ the one I like, that being Tampa Bay. It's been a tough season overall for the Lightning (injuries!), but they did win Sunday at Colorado 3-2 in overtime. That was when I took them. They followed that up w/ an even more impressive win on Tuesday, 4-1 over Edmonton here at home. Tonight, it's the other Alberta team invading. Calgary got one over on me Tuesday, beating Nashville 6-5 in overtime. A quick start there was huge for the Flames as they actually blew a 4-1 lead. This being their third straight road game could catch up w/ them, especially considering the L2 both went to overtime. I like the Lightning here. 

Despite all the injuries and struggles, Tampa Bay is only four points out of playoff position. They've gone 5-0-2 the last 7 games as the offense has come alive since the All-Star Break. They've scored three or more goals in every game but one during the 5-0-2 surge. But the play of goaltender Ben Bishop has been just as critical, if not moreso. He has won his L5 starts and has an eye-popping .964 save percentage in the last four. It's also nice to see the Lightning limiting the number of shots from their opponents recently. They held the Oilers to only 21 shots on goal Tuesday, the third straight game where they outshot their opponent. Back in a December meeting w/ the Flames (in Calgary), they allowed only 22 shots. They won that game 6-3 w/ Bishop in goal.

The Flames have been outscored over the course of the season, which is not indicative of a team that should make the playoffs. They currently occupy the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, but it's a tenuous lead over the Kings and Jets (just two points). There's really not any one area that Calgary excels in. Their overall save percentage of .900 ranks near the bottom of the league. That's largely due to Brian Elliott, who has been a major free agent disappointment. Elliott, who is expected to be in goal tonight, has a save percentage of .883 on the road this year. The team has a losing record when he is between the pipes while conversely, Tampa Bay is 9-5 when Bishop is the starter at home. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Florida Atlantic (7:00 ET): The rise of UTEP is one of the most "under the radar" stunning things of this entire College Basketball season. Basically "left for dead" at 2-13 SU, the Miners have inexplicably won 9 of 11 and covered 10 consecutive games! I suppose this is somewhat comparable to what the Heat did in the NBA. But like the Heat, the idea of UTEP being a legit threat in Conference USA seems a bit far-fetched. Tonight, they are at Florida Atlantic. It was a one-point game (66-65 UTEP) when these teams met earlier in this season and that was the last time the Miners did NOT cover (were -1). This ATS streak is bound to end and considering the team has lost straight up each of the previous two times it has been on a three-game win streak, tonight looks like the night! 

FAU stopped a three-game losing streak w/ a 94-82 win at lowly Southern Miss Saturday. It was the Owls' highest scoring game of the year against a D-I opponent. They shot 61.2% from the field and made 15 three-pointers. Will they be able to match those numbers tonight? Probably not. But let's give this team some credit. Save for games against the top two teams in their league (Middle Tenn, LA Tech), they have been competitive virtually every time out. Five of their C-USA losses have come by six pts or fewer, two of them in overtime. Earlier in the year though, the Owls went to Ohio State and won in OT! While just 4-8 SU at home this year, the Owls have only been outscored here by an average of 1.2 PPG. They are better than their record shows. 

There's been a stark contrast w/ UTEP when it comes to close games. The Miners' stunning surge has largely been a byproduct of winning a lot of close ones. Of their nine conference victories, five have been by six points or less and three were decided in overtime. Two were one-point games, one of those the win over FAU, a game which did to go OT. That game was decided on a buzzer-beater and was actually the Miners' second straight one-point win in OT at the time. There have been four wins by four points or less for UTEP during the 9-2 SU run. So what I'm saying is that they're due to lose a close one. There's definitely some value here on FAU considering the change in venue as it was a 1-pt spread in El Paso. Again, UTEP has failed to win both times they've been on a three-game win streak this season. 10* Florida Atlantic

9* Under Bruins/Ducks (10:35 ET): Anaheim is where Boston wants to be right now. That is, safely in playoff position. While the Ducks are top three in the Pacific, the Bruins are fighting their way to get there in the Atlantic. Currently, they have 66 points, which has them tied for fourth in the division and for the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. They arrive in Anaheim on a four-game win streak. This was a team I tabbed as a potential breakout in the second half, so I'm not surprised. That said, a 2-1 win at San Jose on Sunday is pretty impressive. I feel that I can't back them to win a second straight game on the West Coast, but I do like the Under against a Ducks team that has scored only five times in its last four games. 

Boston came out of the All-Star Break and went on a scoring binge. They scored 4+ goals six straight times (still lost twice). But in the last two games, goaltending has been the story. Tuukka Rask first shut out Montreal on Feb 12 and then after an unusual amount of prep time, came back and beat San Jose 2-1 (overtime) this past Sunday. The team having a full week off partly explains the ability to go into San Jose and win. That said, I see no reason to doubt Rask in this spot either. He's actually been better on the road this season and also sports a .936 save percentage in 13 starts vs. Western Conference foes. But the Bruins biggest strength remains the penalty kill. They rank 1st in the league having killed off 86.4% of all PP opportunities this season. Also, they allow the second fewest number of shots per game (26.7) in the league, trailing only perennial league-leader Los Angeles. 

As mentioned earlier, Anaheim has had trouble scoring of late. That cost them in a bad 3-2 loss at Arizona Monday. The Ducks should have felt fortunate to have won two of its previous three games as both wins were 1-0 finals. In between, they dropped a game (here at home) to Florida by a score of 4-1. So, overall, that's four straight games w/ five or less total goals scored. Like Boston w/ Rask, Anaheim has a goaltender they can count on, that being John Gibson. Gibson has a ridiculous .971 save percentage in his L4 games and is at .930 at home for the year. The Ducks also rank in the top 10 in terms of fewest shots allowed per game. They are 7th on the penalty kill and sixth in goals against. The Under is 15-5-3 their L23 games overall. Offensively, they will miss center Antoine Vernette, who was so key at winning faceoffs. 9* Under Bruins/Ducks

8* Creighton (9:00 ET): Creighton is off big 87-70 win over Georgetown (shot 53.1%) Sunday, which improved the Blue Jays' record to 22-5 SU on the season. Unfortunately, all five of those losses have come in Big East play and as a result they are still looking up at both Villanova and Butler in the conference standings. Four of the five losses have come over the last month and they are at Nova on Saturday. So, winning tonight is imperative. The Jays host a Providence team which has covered five in a row and eight of its last nine. The Friars are 11-3 ATS as underdogs this season. But this number looks too low to me and as a result, I'm laying the points. Creighton already beat Providence - by 14 - on the road earlier in the season. 

Though Providence has found success at the betting window, road games haven't gone all that well for them. They have the ignominious distinction of being the ONLY Big East team to lose to DePaul this season. They've won just one road game over the last month and that was by one point at Marquette. Having a full week to prepare here may seem like an advantage to some. But I sense the time off is a contributing factor to this line being so low. Remember last Wednesday's 75-63 win over Xavier isn't as impressive as it may seem considering the Musketeers were w/o their two top scorers. At home, the Friars were actually down at the half before pulling away late.

In the first meeting, Creighton's efficient offense was on full display as they shot a blistering 56% from the field. This is one of the nation's top shooting teams, in fact, only UCLA is shooting at a better percentage for the year. They are better than 50% for the year in Big East play, which would be the highest percentage by a conference member since Syracuse in the late 1980's. The sharp shooting is nothing new as in the six years under HC Greg McDermott, the Blue Jays are top five in the nation in both overall and three-point shooting percentage. They're averaging 85.5 points per game this year. Providence, like G'town on Sunday, will have no answer defensively. 8* Creighton

10* Georgetown (7:00 ET): On the surface, DePaul has been competitive - at least by its woeful standards - the L2 games. Though they still lost by an average of 14.5 PPG, the Blue Demons managed to cover against both Villanova and DePaul. But the fact remains this team has just ONE win in Big East play this season (an upset of Providence back on January 10th) and is 0-11 SU away from home. They've been outscored by an average of 13 PPG by conference foes, which has to be a sweet sound for tonight's opponent, Georgetown. The Hoyas are still licking their wounds a bit after being taken behind the proverbial woodshed at Creighton Sunday. But this is a big drop in class for them and one they should handle w/ ease considering they've already beaten DePaul on the road this season. Lay the points.

John Thompson III's bench might be a little shorter tonight w/ two reserves - Bradley Hayes & Tre Campbell - both listed as questionable due to foot and knee injuries, respectively. But it's no matter against this weak opponent that they've beaten six times over the L3 seasons. It's been more than 20 years since DePaul won here. About three weeks ago, the Hoyas won at DePaul. It was only by a three-point margin, but that sets us up well here w/ some good value. G'town was eight-point favorites for that first meeting, so w/ the switch in home court, it certainly appears to be some decent value. Again, DePaul has not won a single game away from home this year. They've been outscored - on average - by 14.8 PPG in those 11 contests. 

If you happened to have DePaul on Sunday, god bless you. A half court heave at the buzzer gave them the cover at Butler. The final score was 82-66 and DePaul was 17.5-point underdogs. They closed the game on an 11-0 run over the final two minutes after trailing by as many as 27. That was thanks to some sloppy play from Butler (turnovers!) and more free throw attempts than they should have been getting. It was a similar story earlier in the week vs. Villanova as the Demons trailed that game 39-18 at the half and again fell behind by as many as 27 in the second. This second road game in four days is the culmination of a brutal stretch for the worst team in the Big East as they just had to play the top three teams, all in a row. G'town had no answers for Creighton's efficient offense on Sunday, but this will be a far easier task, obviously. It should be noted that the Hoyas project to shoot much better tonight from 3-pt range than they did Sunday when they were a woeful 3 of 22. 10* Georgetown

8* Temple (7:00 ET): Temple has lost B2B games as a favorite. Perhaps they were looking forward to this revenge spot against UCF, who beat them by 24 back on New Year's Eve in Orlando. The first of those two outright losses was pretty embarrassing as they fell to lowly East Carolina 78-64 as 6.5-pt chalk. How did that happen? Well, the Owls went ice cold in the second half as they went from a halftime lead (by 1) to a 17-point deficit pretty quickly. Sunday, here at home against UConn, it was a much tighter affair. Again, the Owls blew a halftime lead, this one was six points. They lost on a last second layup (just 2.9 seconds remaining). It was a game they led almost the whole way and by as many as 10 pts in the second half. I look for them to take out their frustrations on UCF tonight. Lay the short number. 

The loss to UConn was actually the second time this season that Temple lost a home game in the closing seconds. The other was against Tulsa back on 1.14. They are already guaranteed just their third losing record in conference play over the L34 seasons because of those two defeats. Injuries also have taken a toll, but here they may actually be the beneficiary of a key absence on the other side. UCF's fourth leading scorer Tanksley Efianayi is listed as questionable due to a knee injury. After missing last Tuesday's game vs. Tulsa entirely, Efianayi played only four minutes at ECU Sunday, a game the Golden Knights won by only three. That game required UCF closing on an 11-2 run just to pull out the SU victory. So they too very easily could have lost to the Pirates.

When these teams met on New Year's Eve, Temple couldn't hit water from the boat. They finished at just 31.2% from the field including an ugly 5 of 25 from three-point range. Aside from a game against a very good SMU team, that is their lowest scoring effort against any American Conference opponent. They were also -20 in FT attempts, not that it mattered in a 77-53 loss. But this time around, it's UCF's shooting I'd be concerned with. The Knights average just 63.9 PPG away from home. They have lost the last five times they've been a road dog of three points or less, covering only once. Meanwhile, Temple is 18-6 ATS the L24 times it has been asked to lay three or less at home. 8* Temple

10* New Mexico (10:00 ET): Colorado State visits the famed "Pit" in Albuquerque for a very important Mountain West matchup. The Rams are one of three teams currently tied atop the MWC at 10-4 SU in league play. New Mexico isn't far behind, just 1.5 games off the pace at 9-6 SU. But if they are to catch the top three, winning tonight is probably a neccessity. The homecourt edge may not be what it once was for the Lobos, but it is still strong as is evident by their 10-3 SU record at "The Pit" this season. They are only 3-7 ATS in those games, however, which reflects inflated lines based on their past strong history here at home. But the number is short tonight, probably due to the fact Colorado State is 9-1 ATS in "true" road games. I'm laying the points as the Lobos already beat CSU in Fort Collins earlier this season. 

When New Mexico arrived in Fort Collins for that earlier meeting, they were struggling. They'd lost three in a row. But they responded w/ an outright 84-71 win as four-point underdogs as they shot 55% from the floor. But that game was more notable for the fracas that took place afterwards between a UNM assistant CSU forward Emmanuel Omogbo. So clearly, emotions will be high for this rematch. But the problem from Colorado State's perspective is that there's turmoil from within right now as a report came out three days ago alleging their own HC (Larry Eustachy) berated and intimidated players, creating a "culture of abuse." There have been calls for Eustachy's job, something that is likely to create major distractions moving forward. 

The Rams have won and covered four straight entering tonight, but all of those wins came before the report on Eustachy was released. Normally, having a week off (as CSU has had here) would be a good thing. But this being the 1st time the Rams have taken the court since the report came out may work against them. They do host San Diego State on Saturday, so this may be a bit of a lookahead spot as well. Not so for New Mexico, who is off a loss at Fresno State Saturday. But that was just their third loss in the last nine games. Curiously, two of those losses were to bottom tier MWC teams, but the Lobos also hold road wins over three of the top teams in the league as well. They also average 78.4 PPG here at home. 10* New Mexico

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): If the playoffs started today (they don't!), then the Predators would be in as a Wild Card. But it's a pretty precarious lead over a crowded field and the club would probably feel a whole lot better if they could move up to third place in the Central Division, a spot they currently trail St. Louis by three points. The Preds have outscored opponents this season and are coming off a huge 4-3 win at Columbus on Sunday. There is some concern here as it's been almost a month since they've posted B2B wins. But they're on home ice tonight, a place where their record is 16-7-6 while holding opponents to just 2.4 goals per game. Calgary invades tonight and the Flames would be the other Wild Card team if the playoffs started today. But while Nashville has outscored opponents this year, Calgary has not w/ a -14 goal differential. As you can probably tell, I'm on the home team here.

Calgary has suffered a couple of bad losses recently. One was an awful 5-0 setback at home against Arizona. The other came Saturday at Vancouver by a score of 2-1. The Flames next four games will all be on the road, in the Southeast. That could be a problem as they come in averaging only 2.1 goals per game away from home this year. They are only scoring on 7.3% of shot attempts on the road. At the same time, their own save percentage is near the bottom of the league. Brian Elliott was supposed to be a savior this year, but instead he's got a save percentage below .900. Chad Johnson is the other option and he's been even worse of late (.825 L4 starts!). 

Pekka Rinne has experienced similar struggles of late for Nashville, but his season-long numbers indicate a bounce back is likely. He has a .921 save percentage for the year at home. Meanwhile, all indicators show the Preds' offense is officially clicking. It's been seven straight games w/ at least 30 shots on goal and they've scored 22 times in the last six games. Calgary has scored only 10 goals in its last five games. Their power play is also 0 for its last 16. 8* Nashville

8* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): The MAC West remains one of the most wide-open races in any conference in all of College Basketball. Currently, five of the six teams are separated by just two games. However, of late, it appears as if both Northern Illinois and Central Michigan are determined to play their respective ways out of the race. Northern Illinois has lost four straight, the last two at home and those were killers considering they came against Toledo and Ball State. Not to be outdone, Central Michigan has lost three in a row, the last two also coming at home. Playing one more time in Mt. Pleasant, I can't see the Chippewas losing another home game, thus I'll gladly lay the points in this revenge spot.

You can always expect plenty of points when Central Michigan takes the court. Case in point; they've scored a total of 193 points the L2 games and lost both. Saturday was a painful overtime loss to Ball State, the current MAC West leader, by a score of 109-100. The Chips were a small 2.5-pt favorite for that game. They lost despite Marcus Keene scoring 40 pts for the sixth time in a game this season. He is the nation's leading scorer at 29.8 PPG and as a result CMU is third nationally in points per game at 89.9. They average 95.2 at home. Prior to losing to Buffalo and Ball State over the L7 days, the Chips were 10-1 SU on their home floor. I find it very difficult to believe that a Northern Illinois squad that's averaging only 64.2 PPG on the road can keep pace here.

Back on January 7th, Northern Illinois did beat Central Michigan 87-83 in DeKalb. They did so despite making nine fewer three-pointers than the Chippewas, who also got to the FT line 44x. Shockingly, NIU controlled most of the game. Given the statistical profile, that almost seems impossible. At the time, that was the start of a four-game MAC win streak for the Huskies. But they're only 2-7 SU since w/ one of the wins coming by just a bucket. This is not a good shooting team - at all. They are just 38.7% from the field on the road, including 26.8% from three-point range. They've lost 16 of the past 19 visits to Mt. Pleasant and I can't see them winning this one either. 8* Central Michigan

10* Toledo (7:00 ET): The MAC West is very wide open right now w/ every team besides Eastern Michigan separated by just two games. The two teams in question here are both tied at 7-7 SU in conference play, which is one game behind division leader Ball State. Northern Illinois, Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan have all been fading of late, so this is a very important game as both Toledo and Western Michigan will still get to host Ball State later this month. Toledo is the home team here as well and I love the set up from their perspective. Not only is it a revenge game (lost 90-74 in Kalamazoo last month), but WMU is just awful away from home. The Broncos are 1-13 SU when they're not the home team, which includes four neutral site losses than came by an average of more than 16 PPG. I say lay the number here.

The aforementiond 90-74 loss to WMU stands as Toledo's worst conference loss of the season. Four of the other six have been by six points or less w/ three of those coming by four points or less. The Rockets were actually 4.5-pt favorites when they visited Kalamazoo, so by comparison, this line looks like a steal after factoring in the change in venue. Especially w/ how bad of a road team Western Michigan has been. Toledo comes into tonight having covered four straight w/ the only SU loss during that stretch coming at Akron. They beat Northern Illnois by eight, on the road, Saturday in overtime. However, while they may have needed an extra five minutes to put away the Huskies there, note that the Rockets actually led by as many as 15 in the second half. They shot 54.5% from the field for the game. 

In the first meeting between these teams, Western Michigan shot an insane 70% from the field, also matching that number from three-point range (7 of 10). I assure you that's not a misprint and also they will not be matching that performance here tonight. The Broncos' road woes are actually more attributable to the defensive end, however, as they give up over 80 PPG on better than 50 percent shooting. That's trouble against a Toledo side which is one of the better shooting teams in the entire country and is at 54% overall the L5 games. At home, the Rockets average 82.3 points per game. Toledo's only two home losses this year have come by a TOTAL of three points. I look for the Rockets to be the ones to keep pace tonight in the MAC West. 10* Toledo

8* West Virginia (9:00 ET): Well, Bob Huggins team finally won an overtime game. They entered Saturday 0-3 in OT contests, which accounted for half of their losses this season. It took TWO OT's to dispatch of Texas Tech and while they failed to cover the spread (my ONLY NCAAB loss this weekend), they actually came pretty close, winning the game 83-74. (The closing line was -10). Some may attempt to make the case that this would be a bad spot to lay points w/ the Mountaineers given that they they are only two days removed from a marathon win. But, it's a big drop in class from Texas Tech to Texas and that isn't being properly accounted for by the linesmakers. When WVU went to Austin earlier this year, they were an 11.5-pt choice. Thus, it looks as if we have plenty of value for tonight's rematch when factoring in the change in venue.

I have not attempted to hide my affinity for WVU this season. I think this is one of the top teams in the country and a squad that can make a LOT of noise come Tournament time. They are certainly better than their record. Even at #9 in the country (new poll comes out later today), I feel they are ranked too low. Remember last Monday, they had Kansas "dead to rites" - in Lawrence. At home this season, they are 14-2 SU and outscoring opponents by 24 points per game. It was not easy Saturday vs. Texas Tech, but they outrebounded the Red Raiders, forced 20 turnovers and were able to overcome the opponent shooting a blistering 58% from the field in regulation (held them to 13% in the two overtime periods). I will again mention how big turnovers are for this team; they lead the country in the number forced and differential. 

Texas is highly unlikely to shoot 58% from the floor in this game. Not just because WVU had held its three previous opponents all below 35%, but also due to the fact the Longhorns are a dreadful three-point shooting team. We're talking 30.3% overall from behind the arc (27.1% on the road) for the season. The Longhorns have not won a SINGLE game away from home this year (0-12 SU!) and in doing so, average only 63.8 points per game. They are 330th nationally in three-point shooting and 311th in foul shooting. They played surprisingly well in Austin against the Mountaineers, but that won't be the case here. 8* West Virginia

PLAY IS SUPPOSED TO BE BLUES UNDER!

10* Under Panthers/Blues (8:05 ET): I, for one, am totally confounded by Florida's recent scoring surge. This is a team that ranks 22nd in goals per game, not to mention 27th on the power play. But those rankings haven't detered them from scoring a total of 20 times during a somewhat shocking four-game win streak. All four wins have come on the road, the latest in LA as they beat the Kings 3-2. If the Kings and their solid puck possession numbers couldn't stop the Panthers (did outshoot them 35-25), then you probably figure that the Blues and their 28th place save percentage won't either. But the issues that we've seen in St. Louis between the pipes have somewhat dissipated of late. I'm going to call for this game to finish Under the total. 

The Blues actually just had a six-game win streak snapped in Buffalo Saturday night. But thanks to the win streak, they now occupy the coveted third place position in their division. It's only a three-point lead over Nashville though, so they can't afford to let up. As I just mentioned, the goaltending has gotten a LOT better recently as is evident by the fact the Blues posted three shutouts during the six-game win streak. Jake Allen, who was expected to carry the team this year, had allowed two goals or fewer in four straight starts before allowing a total of six in the last two games. Still, Pittsburgh is the only team to score more than three times in a game vs. St. Louis this month. Florida is not Pittsburgh on offense. The Blues have also held their previous three opponents all to 28 shots or fewer.

Note that Florida has been outshot in each of its last three games, so they most definitely are overacheiving right now. The offensive numbers, I maintain, are set to decline. Over the L5 games, they are a full two goals above their season long scoring average. Opposing goalies have posted a really bad .851 save percentage against them those last five games, which cannot be expected to continue. I will say that the strength of this Panthers team is the penalty kill, which ranks third in the league. Goaltender Roberto Luongo was sharp against the Kings, turning away 33 of 35 shots. In the last 25 meetings between these two clubs, the Under has cashed 18 times. 10* Under Panthers/Blues

10* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): The sadists that run the Sun Belt have done it again as all four road teams Monday are playing away from home for the second time in three days. The only one of the four being asked to lay points is TX-Arlington, who not coincidentally is also the only one of the four that won Saturday. The Mavericks should probably be considered the SBC's best team at this point, though by no means is that a definitive distinction. Tonight they face one of the two teams that's just one-half game off the lead, that being Ga Southern. TX-Arlington was a very fortunate winner Saturday at Georgia State, so they could easily be coming into this game - perhaps the biggest in the remainder of the SBC reg season - off a loss. I'll take the points w/ the home dog.

TX-Arlington won Saturday by hitting a 35-foot shot w/ just two seconds left. The final score was 68-67 at Georgia State and as I said, they should feel very fortunate to have won that game. Not only because of the last second shot from Eric Neal, but also because - as a team - they shot just 35.5% from the field. Sure, we should probably expect that number to improve here. But, by how much? For the year, the Mavericks are shooting a woeful 30.8% from three-point range when away from home. All six of their losses have been "true" road games this year. Half of those have been as favorites vs. conference foes. Here they'll have to deal w/ an offense which averages a very impressive 85.5 PPG on its home floor. The result of that average is Georgia Southern is 10-1 SU in Statesboro. 

Georgia Southern also won a close one Saturday, beating Texas State 70-67. Though they did not hit their season average in points per game, they did shoot the ball well. I talked about the likelihood of TX Arlington shooting better tonight than they did in the last game. Well, similarly, we should probably expect an increase in point production from the home side as well. A big difference in the last games from these respective teams was game control. Aside from the final score, TX Arlington never led in the second half. Georgia Southern led Texas State the whole way, by as many as 17. The Bulldogs' lone home loss of the season came all the way back on Dec 4, by three, against Florida Gulf Coast. By the way, this is also Senior Night on campus as it's the final reg season home game for GSU (next three all on the road). Expect a very motivated team and a raucous crowd. 10* Georgia Southern

8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): Every single objective measure points to Colorado being the worst team in the league. They have the fewest points, by far (34). They are last in the league in both goals scored and allowed, leading to a horrendous -76 goal differential for the year. Consider that there is only ONE other team (Arizona) that's been outscored by more than 30 goals this year. Only seven teams have a differential below -17! However, tonight, we do find the Avs off a rare win. They won at Carolina Friday, 2-1. Given the unique circumstance of the Avs being off a win here, I feel it's an appropriate time to fade. Being that they are the home team tonight, the money line is more than reasonable. Even on home ice, the Avs are just 7-19-1 SU this year. 

Tampa Bay has been hit hard by injury this year and as a result finds themselves in second to last place in the Atlantic w/ only 58 points. But the playoffs are no pipe dream as they are actually only six points back of third place, not to mention the second Wild Card. The team did play last night - and lost 4-3 at Dallas in overtime. But they had won three of four previously w/ the lone loss coming at Minnesota (top team in the West). The offense has come alive a bit recently w/ seven goals scored in the L2 games. The Lightning did outshoot the Stars last night, 37-28. Ben Bishop was NOT in goal Saturday, but is likely to be tonight and that's a big boost considering his pedigree and .937 save percentage his L4 starts. The team has won three straight times w/ Bishop between the pipes. 

Colorado really doesn't do much right and had lost five in a row before Friday's overtime win. Their last regulation victory came all the way back on Feb 7. Their five-game losing streak saw them get outscored 18-6. Predictably, they give up a lot of shots per game (32.2) and none of the goaltending options are particularly attractive. Calvin Pickard is the most likely option tonight as he's the only regular w/ a YTD save percentage above .900 (.902). Special teams also aren't very good for the Avs. There have been only three instances this year where the Avs have won B2B games. One of them was when they opened the season 2-0. This is also a revenge game for the Lightning as they were shutout 4-0 (at home!) very early in the season by the Avs. Since then, Colorado has lost 39 of 52 games overall. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Wisconsin (1:00 ET): Count me among the group that is not a strong believer in Maryland. Yes, the Terps are an impressive 22-4 SU overall, including 10-3 SU in Big 10 play. But they've had a tremendous amount of good fortune along the way, namely a 9-3 SU record in games decided by six points or less. The majority of those close wins came early in the season, thus we've already started to see some regression to the mean in this department, including a pair of losses to open February. They did just win at Northwestern (as 2.5-pt pups) on Wednesday, improving to an unfathomable 10-0-1 ATS as an underdog this year (10-1 straight up!). But this stands as their toughest test to date as they face one of the two teams in their league that I have rated as clearly better. I'll call for Maryland's incredible streak as an underdog to come to an end here. Lay the points.

Wisconsin is currently tied w/ Maryland at 10-3 SU in Big 10 play, so the winner here will move into a first place tie w/ Purdue, who won Saturday. To me, Purdue and Wisconsin are the class of this league and there's a gap between them and the field. They are the only teams worthy of the Top 25 in the Big 10 in my estimation. However, the Badgers are coming into this big game a little wounded, both literally and figuratively. Literally in the sense that Bronson Koenig is still battling a lower leg strain that caused him to miss the Michigan game on Thursday. Figuratively in that the team has now dropped B2B games w/ a pair of sub-60 pt performances. They fell here in Madison (rare home loss!) to Northwestern last Sunday, then w/o Koenig fell at Michigan.

Thursday marked the first time in his career Koenig missed a game. Reports are that he practiced Friday. His status is still listed as questionable for today. But regardless if he suits up or not here, I'm on the Badgers. Though a senior and an important cog on the team, Koenig is NOT Wisconsin's best player. They'd actually been winning despite some subpar individual performances from him prior to the injury sidelined him. The Michigan game was neck and neck w/o him throughout and that was on the road. This is the first time all season that the Badgers have dropped B2B games. I should point out that the N'western game marked their 1st and only home loss of the season. They are 13-1 SU at the Kohl Center, outscoring foes on average by 21.8 points per game! I'll bank on that defense that is holding foes to just 55.8 PPG here to "rule the day." After he scored a career-high 32 points in the last game, Maryland start Melo Trimble should come back down to Earth here. 10* Wisconsin

10* UCLA (10:00 ET): While I admittedly have some concerns about UCLA (specifically, their poor defense) come NCAA Tournament time, I have far more concerns regarding their rival, USC. This may seem like a lot of points to lay in a rivalry game, but it's telling that USC remains unranked despite just five losses this season and playing in a Power 5 Conference. I actually do not consider them one of the top 50 teams in the country, let alone the top 25. Therefore, I've got no issue laying this number w/ a Bruins team that is among the best in the country offensively and well rested, playing its third straight home game.

I should bring up that this is a revenge spot for UCLA. One of their three losses this season came on January 25th at USC, 84-76 as seven-point chalk. At that time, they were coming off a loss to Arizona, which remains the only time they've dropped a home game all year. They actually shot much better overall than the Trojans in the first meeting, but the difference was USC making 14 three-pointers compared to just six for the Bruins. That +24 margin from behind the arc is what enabled the Trojans to pull the upset. That was a season-high for them. UCLA also committed 17 turnovers (a season worst for them) and the 76 points still stands as the fewest they've scored in any Pac 12 game this season. This is a team that averages 91.9 points per game, which is the most in the country, and that average jumps to 94.6 PPG at home!

This spread looks like a great value considering what UCLA was asked to lay in the first meeting, on the road. Their average margin of victory here at home is 20.1 PPG. Since losing to USC, they've won four straight, three of those by 16 points or more. The latest came Sunday vs. Oregon State, 78-60. Lonzo Ball again led the way in that one w/ 22 pts and nine assists. The Bruins were actually held to just 32 points in the first half, a season-low, but still won comfortably. Having not played since Sunday, they should be rested and ready for tonight. USC has been off since last Saturday when they lost at Oregon, 81-70. It's easy to see this team's 9-2 SU record away from home this season and think the points are a bargain, but the Trojans have been quite fortunate throughout the year. UCLA gets its revenge in a major way. 10* UCLA

10* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): The Kings find themselves in a bit a precarious position right now. Obviously, that has a lot to do w/ the fact they've been w/o goaltender extraordinaire Jonathan Quick this season. But the bottom line is they are currently 10 points back of the top three in the Pacific Division, which means we're talking Wild Card if they want to make the postseason. As it stands today, it looks like it will be a three-team race for the two WC spots in the Western Conference. One will be whomever doesn't finish in third in the Central - St. Louis or Nashville. The other two are the Kings and Calgary. Tonight, LA hosts a Florida team that has gone on an inexplicable scoring binge recently. It's a virtual "must win" and I'll side with them.

The Panthers have been on an inexplicable scoring binge recently. Over the L3 games, all wins, the team has totaled 17 goals. They've won six of seven overall, scoring 30 goals, but also giving up 23. This is a team that still ranks 22nd in the league in goals per game, mind you, not to mention also has a -15 goal differential for the year. Last night, they got one over on me by downing Anaheim 4-1. I certainly did not see that coming, especially after a 6-5 OT win at San Jose where they'd been outshot 36-22. Once again the Panthers allowed 36 shots to the Ducks. I believe the fact they are playing in the second game of a back to back (on the West Coast, no less) catches up with them here, however. This will be the 1st time in over a month they've had to take the ice w/o rest. They're just 1-3 SU the last four times in this situation. 

Even w/o Quick, the Kings have managed to stay afloat thanks in large part to their always outstanding puck possession numbers. Once again, they lead the league in fewest shots allowed at 25.7 per game. Here at home, that number dips to 24.0. Over the L5 games, they're allowing just 23.8. Therefore, it's certainly disappointing to see they've lost three of four overall. But guess who that one win came against? Florida, by a score of 6-3. That game saw them chase James Reimer from the game in the first period after scoring three times on their first eight shots. They could face Reimer again tonight or more likely Roberto Luongo, who has an ugly .855 save percentage his L4 starts. (Reimer started last night). With the Kings not allowing many shots, their own goalie (Peter Budaj) should start to resume the kind of competent play we've seen from him much oft he season. 10* Los Angeles

8* Oregon (3:00 ET): The seventh ranked Ducks have lost only two Pac 12 games all season. One was at UCLA last week, a game where they blew a double digit halftime lead. The other, also on the road, came against Colorado. They'll look to avenge that one this afternoon and with the national TV cameras present here in Eugene, I expect a highly motivated favorite. Oregon has been unbeatable here at home this season - literally - as in they're 16-0 SU w/ an average margin of victory of 21.1 points per game. This being the second road game in three days (dreaded spot for Pac 12 teams) does Colorado no favors here. Lay the points. 

Oregon was a 6.5-point favorite when they ventured into Boulder last month. While oddsmakers certainly have to account for the result of that game, it still appears (to me) that the Ducks are a bargain here at this price. As you probably know, the effect of home court advantage is quite drastic in college basketball. I already meNtioned Oregon's perfect home record. Well, Colorado is just 4-7 SU in "true" road games. One of those wins came Thursday at Oregon State, who is winless in conference play. I played against the Buffs in that game and it was tooth and nail most of the way. They even trailed at halftime. In my analysis, I called it a "sandwich spot" as CU was off a blowout win Sunday over Washington State (81-49) and had this higher profile game on deck. I think I was proven right.

The first meeting between these teams marked Oregon's worst offensive effort to date in conference play. It also tied their lowest scoring game of the season. It's one of just three games they failed to score at least 70 points. Here in Eugene, they average 82.8 points per game. Aside from one bad half against UCLA, the Ducks have been pretty close to perfect the L4 games. They absolutely destroyed Arizona on this floor, 85-58, two weeks ago. Thursday, it was a 79-61 win over Utah. They shot 53.4% for the game and led by 16 at halftime. Oh by the way, it's not just this season that Oregon is dominating at home. They've won 41 STRAIGHT TIMES here, which is the nation's longest home win streak! The two teams they've beaten over the L7 days (USC, Utah) are both better than Colorado, a team that lost its first seven Pac 12 games. 8* Oregon

8* Ohio (2:00 ET): One might make the argument here that Ohio is in store for a letdown after pulling B2B upsets on the road. But not I. Really, it's been pretty remarkable what the Bobcats have been able to do since losing leading scorer Antonio Campbell for the year. I had them when they hosted MAC leader Akron two weeks ago. They won that game convincingly, 85-70, handing the Zips their first conference loss of the season. After that was a letdown here in Athens w/ OU losing (as nine-point chalk) to Central Michigan. But since then, they've won twice on the road - both times as dogs - beating Ball State and Eastern Michigan. Both wins were relatively close, but one that was not came back on January 28th when they destroyed today's opponent, Bowling Green, 96-72. That was w/o Campbell and as seven-point chalk. Thus, the Bobcats look like a bit of bargain here. 

Bowling Green, as you might surmise, is not a good team. They've lost both games over the past week, both by double digits. The latest came at Western Michigan by a score of 89-79. The Falcons were seven point underdogs in Kalamazoo, but even the oddsmakers can't help when you continue to play poor defense. BGSU has now allowed six of its last seven opponents to score at least 82 points while only one of the last six hasn't shot 51.9% from the floor or better. For the season, the team is allowing over 80 PPG away from home and that's a big reason they are just 2-9 SU in such games. Last Saturday, they allowed Buffalo (who is not a great team) to shoot 63.5% from the floor! If the Falcons shoot anywhere close to what they did in the first meeting w/ Ohio, then they are in major trouble yet again.

In that first meeting, Ohio held BGSU to just 33.3% from the floor including 7 of 34 from three-point range. Consider that Ohio made only TWO free throws the entire game (went to the line just 7 times!) and still won by 24 on the road. Of course, it helped that they shot 53.5% from the floor including 18 of 35 from three-point range. Bowling Green's track record indicates that the Bobcats may be able to match those numbers here this afternoon. Again, that win came w/o Campbell in the lineup. Ohio is 5-1 ATS its last six times laying between 9.5 and 12 points in Athens, including a perfect 2-0 this season. This line should be higher. 8* Ohio

10* West Virginia (2:00 ET): This matchup has many elements you look for in handicapping College Basketball. First off, WVU is going to be in an ornery mood in its return to Morgantown after blowing a huge lead late at Kansas Monday. They lost in overtime (still covered), a game they will certainly rue for some time. But I anticipate HC Bob Huggins channelling what happened in a positive direction. This is also a revenge spot for the Mountaineers, who lost by one down in Lubbock earlier this season. At home, WVU has destroyed opponents to the tune of a 25.0 PPG margin. For this afternoon's rematch, they are catching the Red Raiders right after an upset of Baylor on Monday. The revenge angle is strong here and I anticipate a blowout. Lay the points. 

With less than three minutes to go, West Virginia led Kansas by 14 points Monday. Again, that was in Lawrence. They held the Jayhawks to 34.4% shooting for the game. It is almost inexplicable that they ended up losing. Still, as disappointing a result as that may be, I still view this team as one of the very best in the country. Defensively, we all know about the press that forces opponents into turning the ball over at a high rate. But the Mountaineers have also held four of their last five opponents below 50% shooting including the last three all under 35%! Texas Tech has done a good job of not turning the ball over lately, but I question that ability in this environment. Their road record is just 1-6 SU and a big reason for that is their overall shooting numbers drop dramatically.

The Red Raiders upset Baylor Monday thanks to some strong shooting (51%). But I don't see them being that sharp here having to deal with the West Virginia press. Remember that the 1st meeting went to overtime w/ the score tied 67-67 at the end of regulation. Again, while Texas Tech has been careful w/ the ball lately, they are facing a deep team that leads the country in turnovers forced and turnover margin. It will be a whole different animal facing the Mountaineers in Morgantown where as mentioned earlier, the home team is bludgeoning opponents, outscoring them on average 90.9 to 65.9. Also consider that three of West Virginia's losses this year have come in overtime. They are better than the overall record and still a top 5 team in my estimation. 10* West Virginia

8* Wichita State (12:00 ET): Northern Iowa got off to an uncharacteristically terrible start in Missouri Valley play, losing its first five conference games. Needless to say, the faithful are not used to seeing those kind of results. However, there has been somewhat of an incredible turnaround in Cedar Falls w/ the Panthers winning 9 of their last 10, the only loss coming on the road to second place Illinois State. UNI is seeking to become the 1st team in MVC history to start conference play 0-5 SU or worse and still finish above .500. They may very well achieve that, but this afternoon is a tall order as they visit the top team in the league, Wichita State. The Shockers have lost only one MVC game all year, also at Illinois State, and they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.8 PPG. Northern Iowa has been hot, but lay the points here.

It's pretty ridiculous that Wichita State is not ranked in the Top 25. The Shockers are 24-4 SU overall and two of those losses, to Michigan State and Louisville, took place back in November. Last time I played them was the revenge spot against Illinois State and they destroyed the Redbirds 86-45 here at home. Since then, they've continued to roll, posting three more double digit victories. The latest came Wednesday at Southern Illinois where they won 87-68, covering the 13.5-pt spread. They shot 55.6% from the floor, which will be a difficult number to duplicate here, but then again the Shockers are one of the top shooting teams in the country and above 50% at home where they are destroying opponents by an average of 27.3 points per game. I just don't see how this team isn't considered among the 15 best in the country right now.

When Northern Iowa opened conference play 0-5 SU, one of those losses came at the hands of Wichita State. It was an 80-66 loss as 10.5-pt home underdogs. Using that line and result as a baseline, the favorite sure looks undervalued here, don't they? I realize that the Panthers have seemingly turned their season around, but the majority of the wins have come at the expense of the bottom of the league, which is very weak. When facing a team that averages at least 77 PPG (WSU averaging 81.8), UNI is 0-9 ATS this season. A big reason for that record is that they are averaging only 63.3 PPG for the year and an ugly 59.8 PPG on the road. Incredibly, during Wichita State's current nine-game win streak, only one of the wins haven't been by at least 15 points! 8* Wichita State

8* Anaheim (10:05 ET): As we typically see, Florida has gone on a bit of a mini-surge since making a change behind the bench. They are 10-6-2 the L18 games. But the fact remains that this is not a very good team and certainly a bit of an overachiever, both this year and last. Clearly, they have declined from last year's Atlantic Division winning pace. But even at just 25-20-10 (tied for most non-regulation losses), it's fair to label this team as an overachiever yet again. Even after scoring a total of 13 goals the L2 games, they still have a YTD goal differential of -18. That offensive production we've seen the L2 games is certainly atypical as the Panthers rank only 24th in the league in goals per game (28th on the power play). I expect them to struggle on the remainder of this West Coast trip, starting tonight in Anaheim.

The Ducks have lost four of six, but remain in second place in the Pacific, four points back of struggling San Jose. It also looks like it could be a struggle to hold off third place Edmonton, who I won with last night and is now tied w/ the Ducks w/ 70 points. A very impressive shutout of an excellent Minnesota team on Tuesday certainly helped. Anaheim got a superb effort between the pipes from John Gibson, who turned away all 37 Wild shots. Gibson is expected to be back in goal tonight. He has a .928 save percentage at home this season and as a result the team is 14-8 SU in those games. Gibson stopped 35 of 37 shots in a matchup at Florida two weeks ago, but it was not enough as the Ducks fell 2-1. So, they'll be hungry for revenge here.

As I mentioned earlier, Florida has scored plenty of late, yet their YTD goal differential remains pretty poor. That obviously has a lot to do w/ the poor play they've gotten between the pipes. In the L3 games alone, they've conceded a total of 15 goals. That's pretty awful. In his last four starts, Roberto Luongo has essentially been a disaster. His save percentage is an almost unconscionable .855. It was actually James Reimer in goal when the Panthers beat the Ducks at home on Feb 3. That is the only time in the L5 games that Florida has allowed fewer than four goals. Prior to beating San Jose 6-5 in overtime Wednesday, the Panthers were just 2-8 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals their previous game. 8* Anaheim

8* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider's record (14-13 SU overall, 7-9 in MAAC) won't cause you to do cartwheels, but the Broncs most definitely have been competitive of late. Therefore, at home tonight, I anticipate them beating a Canisius team they already took care of on the road earlier in the year. Rider has covered three straight and in both SU losses, they lost the lead in the final two minutes. They led Fairfield on the road Monday night, but could not hold on as they went cold down the stretch. They still covered though, as four-point dogs, losing only 69-67. That came after an insane 112-107 win last Saturday over Quinnipiac here at home. No, there was no overtime. Also, last week saw the Broncs play Monmouth (MAAC's top team) tough, losing by only five. Take the points as I believe the home team will finish off a season sweep here.

Canisius comes off an 89-83 home win over Iona where they were slight one-point favorites. They are now two games up on Rider in the conference standings. The game w/ Iona was tied in the late stages before the Golden Griffins closed on a 6-0 run. However, I remain concerned about this team's defense, or rather lack of it. Somehow they have managed to go 9-6 SU, 10-4-1 ATS on the road despite allowing an average 83.7 points per game! Each of their last five opponents - and seven of the last eight - have shot 50% or better from the field. Rider may be w/o assist leader Stevie Jordan, but they still have four other double digit scorers on the roster. Twice the Golden Griffins have been road chalk in MAAC play and both times they lost the game outright. Those were against bottom tier teams Niagara and Quinnipiac, both of whom are looking up at Rider in the MAAC standings. 

When Rider won at Canisius earlier in the year, they shot exactly 50% from the floor in a 72-66 upset as 6.5-pt dogs. Using that number as our baseline and factoring in the switch in home court advantage, you'd certainly think the Broncs would deserve to be a slight home favorite for the rematch, especially considering they won SU the first go around. Something to note is that they pulled that upset despite making only two three-pointers the entire game! They are now 4-1 SU/ATS the L5 meetings vs. Canisius and 16-3 SU the L19 times hosting them. Rider sees its scoring average jump all the way up to 80.4 PPG here at home, so I see another strong offensive showing tonight. 8* Rider

10* St. Mary's (11:00 ET): Wrong place, wrong time for Loyola Marymount here. They are venturing into St. Mary's right after the Gaels lost for the just the second time in conference play. That loss did take place here at home, against rival Gonzaga on Saturday. The Gaels played the Zags tough, but ultimately came up short (by 10 points) on the scoreboard. Both WCC losses so far have come to Gonzaga. Otherwise, St. Mary's has taken care of business in conference play w/ 11 of its 12 wins coming by double digits. One of those came all the way back on December 29th as they beat Loyola Marymount on the road, 72-60 as 11.5-pt chalk. I suppose you could make the case that this is a big number to lay after suffering a disappointing loss, but SMC has had adequate time to get over what happened on Saturday. Lay the points.

Loyola Marymount had the misfortune of playing Gonzaga two days before St. Mary's did. They lost by 30, at home. If you're going to make the case that the Lions might take advantage of a letdown here from the Gaels, then you probably would have also argued that they should have taken advantage of a lookahead spot last week. That clearly didn't happen. Loyola did win its next game, 66-60 over Portland on Saturday, but the Pilots are a very bad basketball team. I mean really bad. As in their last win was December 31st. St. Mary's beat them 74-33 here at home. Note Loyola is also 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or less their last game. Also troubling for the Lions is that they've shot worse than 40% from the field in three consecutive games. As I'm about to get into, St. Mary's can be a very staunch team defensively. 

There was a game two weeks ago where St. Mary's allowed just 27 points. Not in a half, but in a GAME. That was at San Diego on Feb 4. For the year, the team is giving up just 56.6 PPG, which is second best in the nation, trailing only Virginia. Besides Gonzaga, only one WCC team has been able to score 70 against the Gaels and that was Pacific, who hit it right on the nose. St. Mary's average margin of victory here at McKeon Pavillion is 15.8 points per game. Against a below average foe like Loyola Marymount, they should be able to top that. The only team besides Gonzaga that came in here and won this season was TX-Arlington. That was all the way back in the second game of the season. After a couple of bad shooting performances last week, the Gaels should rebound here against a team which allows its opponents to make 48.8% of its field goal attempts (38.6% from 3-pt range) on the road. 10* St. Mary's

8* Oregon State (9:00 ET): There's no sugarcoating the fact that this has been an awful season up in Corvallis. Not only has Oregon State yet to win a single conference game (0-13 SU!), but they have been w/o their best player, Tres Tinkle (coach's son), ever since January 7th due to a wrist injury. The result has been them getting outscored by an average of 16.7 PPG by Pac 12 foes. Most of the games, as you can tell, have not been close. But one that was took place at the end of January at Colorado. There, the Beavers were able to stay within the generous 18-pt spot, losing only 85-78. The rematch is tonight and it seems as if the oddsmakers still haven't learned their lesson as, now on the road, CU is still laying too many points given that they are a below average Pac 12 team. Furthermore, this is hardly a great spot for the Buffs. They're in off a blowout win on Sunday and have a far "bigger" game on deck, at Oregon, later this week. Take the points. 

Oregon State actually has a history of playing Colorado tough, at least here in Corvallis. They've both won and covered the spread in five of the past six meetings here, including LY's 60-56 win as three-point favorites. There haven't been many Pac 12 wins since, but at least the Beavers can enter w/ some confidence knowing they've been able to at least hang w/ the Buffs recently. They were also able to hang w/ UCLA, at least most of the way, on Sunday. Taking on one of the league's top teams, OSU actually led late in the first half and held the Bruins to a season-low 32 1H pts. The 78-60 final is a bit misleading, although UCLA pulled away halfway through the second half. But still, OSU stayed within the number (+25.5) the whole game. 

Colorado dominated Washington State on Sunday, winning 81-49 as 12.5-pt home favorites. It was their second straight game scoring 81 pts on better than 50% shooting. But both of those games took place in Boulder. The Buffaloes have just one Pac 12 road win this season and it came at Stanford back on 2.2. They are 0-6 SU otherwise. One key reserve, Deleon Brown, may be out tonight as he sustained a concussion Sunday. CU is only 5-10 ATS this year when laying points. As mentioned above, they'll be at Oregon this weekend, a date that they players and coaching staff are probably pointing to alot more than this one. The Buffs are also 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or less in the previous game. Coming off a blowout like that has inflated this line. 8* Oregon State

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET): This is not a good spot for a Flyers team I don't care for much to begin with. Back when it was a "five-team race" in the Metropolitan, I was making the case that Philadelphia was the "odd team out" and overrated. That's since been confirmed by the fact they're just 8-13-4 their last 25 games after a random 10-game win streak in early December. Their YTD goal differential of -23 does not indicate positive results are forthcoming. That's actually the third worst goal differential in the entire Eastern Conference. Having fallen completely off the pace set by the top four in the division, I now believe we're set to see the Flyers not even make the postseason. In addition to the poor goal differential, the other (and more obvious) reason I don't like Philly here is that they just played last night (and lost) in Calgary. Things will be no easier tonight in Alberta against the province's better team. In fact, they'll likely get worse. 

Edmonton is enjoying its best season in years. Led by Conor McDavid, all the young talent has gelled and the result is a current third place standing in the Pacific Division. After totaling just five goals in five games (went 1-4), the Oilers busted loose for five in one game Tuesday as they blew out the sorry Coyotes here at home. That was the sixth straight game that the Oilers outshot their opponent and what I'm really impressed by is just how few shots the team is allowing per game. The number is down to an average of 24.4 over the L5 games, which certainly makes life easier for whomever is between the pipes. Tonight, that's likely to be Cam Talbot, who has a solid .920 save percentage in all games this season. Lucky for Talbot is that the Flyers have scored just four goals in the L5 games.

Philadelphia has had some of the worst goaltending in the league this year as their overall save percentage is below .900. It's tough to win w/ a percentage like that. Likely starting tonight will be Steve Mason (.891 on the road), who has started only two of the team's past eight games and last won all the way back on January 25th. Yes, the Flyers did outshoot Calgary last night, but they still came up short on the scoreboard (3-1) and they're unlikely to get as many chances tonight against Edmonton. The offense has been held to three goals or fewer in 13 consecutive contests. 8* Edmonton

10* Under Wizards/Pacers (8:05 ET): Three times these teams have met this season and the Over has cashed in all three. The last meeting took place less than a week ago, in the Nation's capital, with the Wizards prevailing 112-107. As is the case here, Indiana was coming off a loss to the Cavs. Only tonight the spot is a bit more difficult from the Pacers' perspective as they were in Cleveland last night. For a fifth consecutive game, Indiana gave up at least 110 pts (113 to be exact) as they fell pray to a barrage of three pointers from the World Champs. Washington is in the top five in three-point FG%, but their overall scoring is due to come to down as is the number of points allowed by Indiana. Look for the Under to hit in this one.

Washington has won 17 of its last 20 games to move into third place in the Eastern Conference. Their last win was quite impressive as they blew out Oklahoma City 120-98 at home. But there is no denying the fact that the Wiz are a much better team at home. In fact, something to note here is the fact they've played far more games at home (31) and than on the road (23) so far. Their road record is just 9-14 SU w/ the scoring average declining to 104.5 points per game. They've played all of one road game in February so far and fortunately for them, it came at Brooklyn. They still needed OT to prevail there. As alluded to earlier, the Wizards' scoring average from the L5 games is set to decline. The fact they have averaged 117.2 PPG over that timeframe is a bit misleading as that includes TWO overtime contests.

Indiana has lost five in a row, yet they are still sixth in the Eastern Conference. But a bit of a divide is starting to form between them and the top five. Having faced Cleveland twice in the L5 games hasn't helped. Last night, the Cavs made 18 three-pointers as Kyle Korver caught fire in the second half. I don't look for anyone on the Wizards to duplicate Korver's performance tonight. For the year, the Pacers allow just 103.2 PPG at home. The Under did still cash last night, mind you, ending a four-game Over streak and before that the Under had cashed in five straight Pacers games. Without rest, Indiana is just 3-8 SU this year, averaging 103 PPG. Don't be surprised to see BOTH teams' shooting a bit off in the final game before the All-Star Break. 10* Under Wizards/Pacers

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers are still w/o Chris Paul and facing a formidable schedule, but don't count this team out yet. They just concluded a grinding, five-game road trip w/ three consecutive wins, the last two both coming in the underdog role. The more impressive of those two came last time out as they beat Utah 88-72, a throwback defensive performance to the early portion of the season when they led the league in efficiency. Now they actually get to play a home game! Their only other time over the last 11 games that they got to play at Staples Center was unfortunately against the Warriors (on 2.2) and you get one guess as to how that went. Tonight, they host an Atlanta team I happen to feel is quite overrated. Lay the short number. 

The Hawks are now fourth in the Eastern Conference at 32-23 straight up. That SU record comes w/ a big caveat though as they've actually been outscored over the course of the year.This will be their third straight games out West. After losing by a single point at Sacramento, they topped Portland 109-104 as 2-pt dogs Monday night. Don't let that score fool you though as the game went to overtime and it was a bad shooting night for both teams. The Hawks shot only 38.6% from the floor, but were fortunate that Portland finished at 35.9%. One area that Atlanta was dominated was on the glass. Portland grabbed 78 rebounds for the game. That's a lot and the Blazers are hardly a great rebounding team. Atlanta was pretty fortunate to even make it to OT Monday as they needed a Paul Milsap buzzer beater at the end of regulation to get there. They also trailed by seven in the extra frame before closing them on 12-0 run. 

There's no Paul, but Blake Griffin is picking up the slack for the Clips by averaging 25.4 points, 9.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists the L5 games. While the team may not match its defensive performance from the last game, I expect improvement on the offensive end. They'd scored at least 100 pts in six straight games prior to Monday. Note that it was only three weeks ago that the Clippers went down to Atlanta and won outright as seven-point dogs. That was not only w/o Paul, but w/o Griffin as well. One player I expect to regress on the Atlanta side is Tim Hardaway Jr, who has scored in double figures 10 straight games. That's easily a career best stretch for him and should come to an end shortly. 8* LA Clippers

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): The Pacific Division leading Sharks seemingly got back on track w/ a 4-1 win at New Jersey. That performance came as a bit of surprise to me, not because the Devils are any good (they're not!), but it was not a great situation from San Jose's perspective. It was an early start time out East following a tough 2-1 loss at Philadelphia the previous day. They'd actually dropped four in a row before winning in East Rutherford. Now they return home to face a Panthers team off a somewhat stunning offensive performance of their own Sunday, that being a 7-4 win at Nashville. But Florida's goal differential still gives me pause and they've allowed four or more in three of the past four games. Go w/ the home team here.

Taking a page out of the rival Kings playbook, San Jose has been a great puck possession team this year. They are allowing just 27.5 shots per game, the third fewest in the league. At home, the number dips to 25.9. As a result, their record at The Tank is 18-7-2. Martin Jones hasn't exactly been great of late, but is probably in line for a bounce back performance here. His save percentage at home this year is .921. The Sharks are #3 in the league in goals allowed. 

Florida is just 2-8 SU this season after scoring four or more goals their previous game. Having scored seven in Nashville, I'd say they are due for a massive decrease tonight. Note that they are in the bottom third of the league in goals per game on the road at just 2.41. They also give up a ton more shots per game than San Jose. Roberto Luongo hasn't played well between the pipes either of late (.880 save percentage L4 starts) and unlike Jones, I don't see a turnaround happening anytime soon. 8* San Jose

10* Indiana (9:00 ET): The Hoosiers are in a bad way right now. Some of that had to do w/ losing leading scorer James Blackmon. But Blackmon was back on the court Sunday when the team lost 75-63 to Michigan at Assembly Hall. It was their fifth loss in the last six games and the one win during that stretch was against Penn State and required three overtimes. So you would actually have to go all the way back to a January 21st home victory over Michigan State to find the last time this squad won a game in regulation. That sounds bad and I realize the road record isn't good (1-5 SU/ATS), but let us not forget this is a team that beat BOTH Kansas and North Carolina this year. Time to get back on track tonight. Take the points.

Minnesota is one of a handful of Big 10 teams I believe to be highly overrated (Maryland and Northwestern are the others). The Gophers actually ended January on a five-game losing streak. While they've certainly turned things around here in February (won three in a row), the competition has been weaker. Saturday saw them go to last place Rutgers and prevail 72-63. The Scarlet Knights shot the ball terribly and didn't rebound as well as they normally do. That was the Gophers second straight Big 10 road win, but they've come at the expense of the bottom two teams. The other was 68-59 at Illinois back on Feb 4, another game where they benefited from poor opponent shooting (38.1%). In between, there was a VERY fortuitous cover here at home against Iowa. That game, which went to double overtime, actually saw the Gophers cover as seven-point favorites, 101-89.

Minnesota is just 6-6 SU in league play and will have trouble containing this offense. Indiana comes in averaging over 80 PPG and is also a top 36 team nationally in rebounding. Lately, the offense has struggled, but that's had a lot to do w/ Blackmon. He's gone just 5 of 21 from the field in two games since returning to the lineup. That's gotta improve, right? With everyone starting to write off the Hoosiers, I feel now is the perfect opportunity to jump on board? I can see an outright upset here as these teams would be rated relatively even on a neutral floor. Even with the homecourt edge, Minnesota is favored by too much. 10* Indiana

8* Butler (8:30 ET): St. John's has covered five straight games, the latest being a minor upset of Seton Hall (at home) on Saturday. Meanwhile, Butler is off an outright loss at Providence (were three-point favorites). That and the fact that the Johnnie's upset the Bulldogs in the first meeting of the year have created some much needed value on the favorite tonight. Consider that Butler was an eight-point favorite in NYC when they lost to the Red Storm, 76-73, back on December 29th. That game saw St. John's shoot 54% from the floor, their best mark to date in conference play and well above their season-long average of 43.8%. HC Chris Mullin has - somewhat shockingly - turned things around here, but his team is due to get blown out. Lay the points.

Butler is considered to be a NCAA Tournament team right now, but losing at Providence Saturday certainly won't help their cause. The team is still ranked in the Top 25 mind you (#24), even though they've lost three of four. That was after an 18-3 start though that included an 11-0 SU mark at home. The Bulldogs have actually lost B2B home games - to Georgetown and Creighton - as they allowed both of those teams to shoot the lights out. But usually it's Butler that has no issue scoring here in Hinkle Fieldhouse. They average 79.8 PPG on 50.0% shooting here. I expect the team's leading scorer Kelan Martin (15.4 PPG) to have a bounce back effort tonight after totaling only 20 pts in the L3 games. Notable is the Bulldogs' 3-1 SU/ATS record this year off a Big East loss.

St. John's had a full week off prior to winning Saturday. Their opponents (Seton Hall) were coming off a pair of overtime wins, so certainly it was an ideal spot for the Red Storm. Another key in winning that game was turnover margin. They forced 18 and converted those into 30 points. Meanwhile, they turned it over only eight times themselves. Maybe they've simply been undervalued, but the bottom line is that the only two times St. John's has been favored in league play this year came against last place DePaul. The market catches up with them tonight.  8* Butler

10* Boston (7:35 ET): Yes, there is no denying that Philadelphia is much improved this year. That's obvious by the fact they are 12-9 straight up since January 8th. They've also covered 16 of their last 22 games as well, including three consecutive upsets coming into tonight. They swept their way through the Southeast, beating Orlando, Miami and Charlotte, all games where they were an underdog. But let's keep a few things in perspective, okay? Most notably, even with all the improvement, this is still one of the five worst teams in basketball. They have also NEVER had a win streak of four games over the last three seasons. In fact, their only two three-game win streaks both came last month and in each instance, they failed to cover the next time out. Both of those were double-digit road losses, at Washington and at Atlanta. History repeats itself tonight. 

Boston has also won its last three games, two of them as road underdogs. Last time out, they finished off their Western Conference swing w/ a 111-98 win as 1.5-pt chalk at Dallas. This is a very hot team right now; their only loss in the last 11 games came at Sacramento (!) on Feb 8. Right now, the Celtics have a golden opportunity in front of them. They are #2 in the East, only 2.5 games back of Cleveland and the Cavs are now going to be w/o Kevin Love for the next six weeks. They can pick up as many as 1.5 games before the All-Star Break as they have not only this game, but Chicago tomorrow night. Meanwhile, Cleveland hosts Indiana in the second game of a back to back tonight. There will be a lot of chatter during the Break about whether or not Boston can overtake the defending World Champs. 

One thing is for certain and that's the Celtics have had no problem beating the 76ers the last few years. They've won all 10 matchups the L3 seasons, though they are 0-2 ATS against them this year. Both wins were by four points or less. But Philly will again be w/o the service of Joel Embiid tonight. The Celtics won at both Portland and Utah despite being down two starters and now have Jae Crowder back. Avery Bradley is still out, but that shouldn't matter as the 76ers allow over 108 PPG on the road. The Sixers also remain the least efficient offense in the league. Isaiah Thomas continues to lead the way for Boston w/ three straight 20+ pt games. He should have another big one here. 10* Boston

8* East Carolina (7:00 ET): This is most definitely a tricky spot for the road favorite, Temple. Not only are the Owls playing the second of B2B road games, they pulled an upset in the first leg, beating Temple 74-62 as six-point dogs Sunday. It's a shorter turnaround compared to their opponent as East Carolina last played Saturday. Admittedly, ECU isn't exactly in the finest form right now (lost 9 of 11). But the Pirates are 10-4 SU at home where they hold their opponents to just 58.4 points per game. Furthermore, there's a little value on them for this rematch as in the 1st meeting w/ Temple, they were nine-point road underdogs. Yes, there had to be adjustment after losing the game 81-62, but the market has swung too far against ECU here. Take the points. 

Even after beating Memphis, Temple is still near the bottom of the American, just one place ahead of East Carolina. The Owls entered Sunday at just 4-8 SU in conference play, so I question how worthy they are of laying points on the road. This will be just the second time as road chalk this year in conf play. They pushed the 1st time, winning 79-71 at Tulane, who is worse than East Carolina. Sunday in Memphis, the Owls won due a strong close to the first half. They actually trailed 23-14 early before going on an 18-0 run over an 8:42 span. That run essentially decided the game. Like I said earlier though, this is not your typically strong Temple squad. They've been outscored by about four points per game in conference play and particularly concerning here is that they are 0-4 ATS off an conference win this year. 

East Carolina did not shoot the ball well in the first meeting with Temple (3 of 14 from three-point range). The Pirates aren't a great shooting team to begin with, so that's hardly a surprise. Still, we should see improvement at home tonight. But the real improvement should come on the defensive end. That's a really impressive number that they're holding visitors to here at home. Note they held Cincinnati to just 55 pts in their visit last month. The Pirates have covered five of the last seven games overall. A big key here is that leading scorer BJ Tyson, who has been out w/ a knee injury, could be back on the floor for the first time since Jan 11. He was in uniform (but did not play) for Saturday's disappointing road loss to USF (ECU were 2-pt favorites). ECU did beat Temple here in Greenville last season in a near identical price range. 8* East Carolina

8* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): Fordham, like the team we played against yday (Marist), is not a good team. Thus I can't see why anyone would endorse them, even in this price range. The Rams may not be the worst team in the Atlantic 10 this year, but as per usual they're near the bottom of the league. Their only win over the L5 games was a double OT affair at St. Joe's. Tonight, they'll travel to Rhode Island to face another group of Rams, this one better and likely more angry. The Rhodies lost here at home their last time out, 75-74 to Dayton, a result which knocked them 2.5 games behind the conference leaders. The Rams are most certainly a "bubble team" right now in the eyes of the selection committee and really could use a blowout win in this spot. They'll get it. 

Any time a team loses by a single point at home, there's going to be a feeling of disappointment. But for Rhode Island last Friday, they REALLY had to be kicking themselves. They led a good Dayton team 73-69 w/ just 24 seconds left, but let it slip away despite holding the Flyers to 41.1% shooting for the game. That's a scenario where you HAVE to close. Two losses to the Flyers (by a combined five points) may ultimately sink URI's postseason hopes, but the bottom line is this team had won and covered four in a row prior to Friday's setback. Those four wins all came by a remarkably consistent 8 to 12 pt margin against the "middle class" of the A-10. This is a matchup w/ a bottom tier team that the should win by a larger margin. Friday was just the second home loss of the year for the Rams, who are outscoring visitors by 12.2 PPG to begin with this year. 

Fordham only averages 62.5 PPG on the road, so they'll have trouble keeping pace tonight. This will be their only meeting w/ Rhode Island this season, but the Rams should take it very seriously considering they actually lost at Fordham last year. But at home, URI won by 16. Both games saw Rhode Island shoot better than 50% from the floor. Given that scoring average, it should be no surprise that Fordham doesn't shoot the ball away from home. They're at 39.6% for the year. They also can't stop their opponents, particularly from three-point range. The fact they let home teams shoot 43.1% from behind the arc is really alarming. Rhode Island may just be 2-8 SU against the top 100 of the RPI, but they are 14-0 SU against everyone else. 8* Rhode Island

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): I find it very odd that the Bulls are a perfect 9-0 - both straight up and against the spread - the past nine meetings with the Raptors. During this time, Toronto has been the better overall team, without question. Right now they may be slipping (lost 10 of 14), but I think a case can be made that Toronto is still a top two or three team in the East. (Their net efficiency rating is still the best!). Fortunately, Chicago is not playing well either of late as they've lost three straight, all in embarrassing fashion. Both teams are looking to atone for miserable performances Sunday as Toronto blew a double digit lead at home to Detroit. The price tag might seem high, but that's because the Bulls are going to be w/o both Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler again. Lay the points.

Chicago just wrapped up a 2-4 SU road trip (all non-conference games) w/ three consecutive double digit losses. One was to Phoenix. The latest came Sunday at Minnesota and there we saw how dire things can get w/o Wade and Butler. By early in the second quarter, the Bulls were behind 45-19 and the game was basically decided. I see no reason to expect any kind of marked improvement tonight from a very short-handed squad. Paul Zipser and Nikola Mirotic are also likely out here. Many times, the first home game back after a long road trip is a really tough spot. While the Bulls are 5-0 SU/ATS off three consecutive losses this year, right now they just don't have the horses to compete. I said it many times earlier in the season, but I was surprised when things got off to seemingly a good start for this roster. I never viewed this as a playoff team. 

Toronto still doesn't have Patrick Patterson, but they are far healthier than Chicago. They also let a 16-point lead get away Sunday at home against the Pistons. That can't happen. I envision the team coming into this game highly motivated, especially after PG Kyle Lowry ripped their recent play. Offense is no issue for the Raptors as they are tied for second in the league in efficiency (w/ Houston), trailing only the obvious #1 (Golden State). The defense has been an issue, but as I said in Sunday's analysis, Chicago is not a good offensive team. I played the Under in the Bulls' loss to the T'wolves, which cashed. To rehash the facts, Chicago is the worst three-point shooting team in the league, both in terms of percentage and number made. That's including all the games that both Butler and Wade played in. Without that duo, plus two key reserves, they're going to have a REAL struggle to keep pace here. 10* Toronto

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Even with the Blackhawks hot on their heels, the Wild remain the class of the Western Conference from where I sit. Their YTD goal differential of +58 is more than double every other team in the conference (Chicago only +19) and is second best in the entire league, trailing only Washington. Tonight, they host a likely playoff team, that being Anaheim. But to illustrate my earlier point re: goal differential, the Ducks have outscored opponent by only four goals over the course of the season. No team has more non-regulation road losses than Anaheim's 7 and the result of that is a 12-19 SU record away from home. Minnesota doesn't lose at home often and is already 2-0 vs. the Ducks this year. I'm on them. 

The Wild scored six times on 30 shots Sunday in Detroit. That wound up being a pretty easy win after playing extra time in the previous two games. No team is better at home on the power play than Minnesota, who is converting at a 30% rate here. They were 3 for 4 w/ the man advantage Sunday. Something else to note about the Wild on home ice is how they allow far fewer shots per game. The number they allow overall (30.8 per game) is a little troubling, but at home it dips down to 26.8, which is very good. In fact, that would be the fifth best number in the league. Of course, it also helps when you have the NHL's leader in save percentage and goals against average as well. Devan Dubnyk probably has a Vezina Trophy coming his way.

Anaheim is in a tough spot here. Not only are they facing the best team in the Conference, but they are doing so at the end of a six-game road trip that has had them out East since the start of the month. They've lost four of the five game so far, the one win coming at Buffalo. This game comes after facing the best team in the league, Washington, and they gave up six goals there. It was the Ducks' fifth straight loss to a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Wild have only four regulation losses in the last 33 games, a remarkable achievement. 8* Minnesota

10* St. Peter's (7:30 ET): Marist is a very bad basketball team. They have just three conference wins this season, the last one coming all the way back on January 16th against Niagara. Since then, it's been seven straight MAAC losses, five of them by coming by double digits. One of those five was to tonight's opponent, St. Peter's, an 81-65 loss that took place at home. Tonight, they head to Jersey City as decided underdogs and I don't see this game going well for them. St. Peter's, playing a pretty road-heavy schedule of late, has covered six of its last seven games and were it not for an an abundance of close losses, they'd be right there w/ Monmouth, challenging for the MAAC regular season title. I see them "putting the boots" to the underdog in this one. Lay the points.

Incredibly, five of St. Peter's six conference losses have been by three points or less. While five of their last six games overall have taken place on the road, ironically it was the one home game that that accounts for their lone ATS loss during that stretch. They fell at the buzzer, 72-70 to Canisius, as three-point favorites. That and a two-point home loss to Niagara last month really sting. The Peacocks have also recently lost by just a single point at Monmouth in overtime. That was after beating the MAAC leaders here at home, 71-61, earlier in the year. But let's talk about what the Peacocks do well, shall we? Last week, they went 2-0 SU/ATS on the road, crushing both Quinnipiac and Manhattan by a combined 48 points. Sunday in Manhattan, they shot 56% from the floor and never trailed. This is also a very good defensive team. They allow just 62.6 PPG, which is 14th best in the country. 

While SPU went 2-0 on the road last week, Marist was 0-2 at home. The Red Foxes lost by 20 to Fairfield and then by seven to Siena. Unlike tonight's opponent, they do not defend well. On the road, Marist gives up an alarming average of 80.1 points per game. They've also shot just 37.2% from the floor over the last five games. On the road, they are just 2-12. Here they'll have to contend with the fact that St. Peter's is 12-4 ATS in conference play and 6-1 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 60 pts or less. I think a decent case could be made that St. Peter's is a major darkhorse come conference tourney time. These teams are in completely different classes right now. 10* St. Peter's

8* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): On Friday, Eastern Michigan failed to do what Ohio did the week prior. That's beat Akron at home. The Eagles fell for a fourth consecutive time as the Zips shot a blistering 52.9% from the floor. That 87-76 final was EMU's sixth loss in the last seven games and after leading the MAC East at one point, the Eagles are now just 13-12 SU on the season. Meanwhile, Ohio has had an interesting L4 games, alternating a pair of upsets w/ SU losses as a favorite. After being Akron two Saturdays ago, the Bobcats fell at home (as 9-pt favorites) to Central Michigan. They responded by pulling a minor upset at Ball State on Friday, 79-77 as 1.5-pt dogs. I just can't envision Eastern Michigan losing again here, especially considering they're at home, so I'll lay the very short number. 

Though I was on Ohio when they beat Akron (Zips' 1st MAC loss of the season), I warned that this was not the same team we saw at the start of the season. That's because they lost leading scorer Antonio Campbell for the year (knee injury) back on January 20th. Again, the team has alternated wins and losses in the six games w/o him, three times losing SU as a favorite. Another of their three remaining double digit scorers, Kenny Kaminski, was injured in the last game. However, he may still play here. But what Bobcats' backers need to be concerned about here is their team gives up 76.8 PPG on the road. Also, it was an awful shooting night the first time they faced EMU this season. In an ugly 53-49 loss, Ohio shot just 30% from the floor. That was at home w/ Campbell in the lineup, mind you. Another troubling sign is Ohio's propensity to blow big leads. Twice in the L4 games, they've lost a lead of at least 18 points. They actually blew all of a 25-pt lead Friday at Ball State before pulling out the two-point victory. 

Eastern Michigan also needs to be concerned about its defense. They've allowed two straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor and on Friday, Akron hit 18 three-pointers against them. Ohio can be a deadly three-point shooting team as well, but we've already see the Eagles put the clamps down on them once. What EMU need not worry about here is their offense, which averages 87.0 PPG here in Ypsilanti. Note Ohio actually led EMU 26-19 at the half in the 1st meeting, so that's another blown lead. Having lost four in a row, Eastern Michigan is a desperate team here. I see them picking up their first home win since 1.17 tonight. 8* Eastern Michigan

8* Under Warriors/Nuggets (9:05 ET): This is the highest O/U line for any NBA game to date this season. If there were any two teams capable of going Over, it would probably be the Warriors and Nuggets, but I shouldn't have to explain to you the confluence of events required for a game to go Over an O/U line this high. The previous high O/U line for a game this season was 238.0 for Warriors-Rockets on Jan 20th. That game stayed Under, albeit barely, with Golden State winning 125-108. Note that was also the highest O/U line for any NBA game in almost SEVEN years! Golden State is #2 in the league in defensive efficiency (something that's rarely talked about). The Under is 19-9 in their road games including a perfect 8-0 when favored between -9.5 and -12 points. Take the Under here. 

Denver is the top Over team in the league. They are 37-16 Over in all games including a remarkable 30-9 when the total is 210 points or higher. Their last two games both went Over as they allowed 123 points to the Knicks and 125 points to the Warriors. But both of those games were on the road. Certainly, Golden State will "get theirs" tonight, but it's worth noting that the Nuggets allowed only 87 points (to Dallas) in their last home game. Shifting to the offensive end of the floor, Denver is likely to struggle to score tonight considering they could be w/o a number of key players. We know that leading scorer Danillo Gallinari is out indefinitely due to a groin injury. Kenneth Faried, Emmanuel Mudiay, Darrell Arthur and the recently acquired Mason Plumlee also may all not be uniform here!

I had the Over in Golden State's Saturday night showdown in Oklahoma City (Kevin Durant's return to OKC). The Dubs did not disappoint me, scoring 130 points in rout. It was their third straight game scoring 120+ and this is easily the top team in the league in offensive efficiency. But coming off a high profile win such as that, I think there could be a bit of a letdown tonight and lack of offensive efficiency. They are 4-1 Under their last five games against teams w/ losing records. Eight of the past nine meetings w/ Denver have gone Over, including a 127-119 win back on January 2nd. But this is obviously a higher total than any of those nine previous matchups and over the L2 seasons only that last one would have gone Over this total. I anticipate a Golden State blowout here w/ them taking their foot "off the gas" late, leading to a low-scoring 4Q and an Under. 8* Under Warriors/Nuggets

8* LA Lafayette (8:00 ET): Maybe more than any other conference in America, the Sun Belt seems to take perverse enjoyment in making its members play two road games over the span of three days. (Note: The Pac 12 typically does this a lot too, only Thurs-Sat). Tonight, South Alabama is forced to do the deed after pulling out a three-point win at LA Monroe on Saturday. This will actually be the Jaguars' third consecutive road game, they won the 1st too (at Troy, 76-71, as six-point underdogs), so this is an attempt at a somewhat improbable sweep. Prior to the trip starting, the team was just 2-7 SU in "true" road games this year. They'll be visiting LA Lafayette, who just lost their fourth game in a row Saturday, at home, to Troy. Given situation and circumstance, I'll back the Ragin Cajuns here. Lay the points. 

LA Lafayette is just 4-8 SU in conference play, but the majority of losses have been close. Four have come by five points or less. Now they did just give up 100+ pts for a second time. Troy hit the century mark on the nose thanks to a career-high 31 pts from Jordan Varnado. The 100-88 final was a tad bit misleading in the sense that it was a six-point game in the final 30 seconds. (Troy made 12 of 14 FT's in the final 1:19). Defensive ineptitude aside, the Ragin Cajuns can score, especially here at home. They average 87.4 PPG here at the Cajundome, so it's actually pretty head-scratching that they've lost four times here. Prior to the loss to Troy, the team had lost B2B road games - both by four points or less.

South Alabama has covered four in a row, their only loss during that time coming by just three points at Georgia State. So it would appear to the "naked eye" that these are two teams trending in opposite directions. However, considering that the Jaguars average only 69.8 PPG on the road, it's right to question just how they'll be able to keep pace here. The team's overall field goal percentage has also been up of late and is thus likely to start regressing back to the mean (42% for the year) sooner rather than later. Both recent road wins were close for USA; on Saturday they faced the last place team in the conference and won by only three. That snapped a seven-game losing streak to Monroe, so there could be a bit of a letdown here in what shapes up as a tough spot anyway. 8* LA Lafayette

full analysis soon

10* Over Rangers/Blue Jackets (7:35 ET): This is a matchup of two of the four teams that make up what has been a heated (and top-heavy) race in the Metropolitan Division all season long. Right now, first place Washington is starting to put some distance between itself and the three other teams. The Rangers and Blue Jackets, along with Pittsburgh, are all separated by just two points. Two of the three will meet in the first round of the playoffs, the other is likely to be a Wild Card and face the Atlantic Division winner (likely Montreal). But only one of the three will have home ice advantage, so this is an important race. Note that all four of the top teams in the Metro rank in the top five in the league in goals per games. Thus, there should be an expectation for a high-scoring game here. I agree w/ that expectation. Take the Over. 

The Rangers are third in the league in goals per game at 3.4. Columbus is fifth at 3.2. New York comes into tonight having won five in a row and has scored four times in each of the last four wins. Four is a good number to remember here because it's taken that many goals to win each of the last four meetings between these two sides. The Over has cashed in 9 of the Rangers' last 13 games overall and it is 15-4 their L19 games vs. teams with a winning record. But one issue I see for them tonight is that over the last five games they are giving up an average of 36.8 shots per game. That will make life difficult for Antti Raanta, who starts tonight in place of Henrik Lundqvist. Raanta has a save percentage of only .883 his L4 starts. The Rangers have been outshot in each of the last three games.

Columbus has won only three of its past eight games. At one point, they experienced a tough six-game stretch where they gave up 27 goals. Things have settle down a bit since then, but that probably has something to do w/ playing Detroit twice and Vancouver over the L3 games. All three meetings with the Rangers this year have seen at least six total goals scored w/ the last two seeing 9 and 10. Overall, 9 of the last 11 meetings have gone Over the total including five of the past six in Ohio's state capital. Admittedly, the Rangers did not have to face Sergei Bobrovsky in either of those last two meetings. But with scoring on the rise across the league, Bobrovsky alone cannot keep this one Under the total. 10* Over Rangers/Blue Jackets

9* Montreal (7:35 ET): The Canadiens are a better team than Boston and have had little difficulty winning here in Beantown the L3 seasons (5-0!), thus they look to be a great value at an underdog price. Even though they've lost five of six, the Habs continue to lead the Atlantic Division by a comfortable margin as their 70 points currently have them w/ a six-point cushion. Boston finds itself in the all-important third place position in the Division, but three points separate second from fourth and they are by no means a lock for the postseason. They also sport a YTD goal differential that's slightly "in the red" (negative). Not only is Montreal 5-0 SU its last five trips here, they've beaten the Bruins 9 of the last 12 times they've faced them including 2 of 3 this season, one of those here in Boston.

I believe the Bruins absolutely are in play to get one of the final playoff spots in the East. They surprisingly sport the league's top shot differential on a per game basis. But goaltending continues to be an issue as they have an overall save percentage below .900. In his L4 starts, Tuukka Rask has an unfathomably bad .819 save percentage. He's been curiously subpar at home (.896) and even as the B's have been winning recently, they've done so despite allowing plenty of goals. In fact, in five games since the All-Star Break, they've allowed an average of 4.0 gpg despite allowing just 25.4 shots per game. That's a horrible save percentage and something that could certainly bite them here as Montreal ranks 8th in the league in goals per game. Something else working against the Bruins here is that they played last night (beat Vancouver 4-3). They are just 1-8 SU in the second game of a back to back this season.

Montreal also played last night. They lost 4-2 at home to St. Louis. It was their fifth loss in the last six games and third straight game giving up at least four goals. But overall numbers suggest they're more likely than Boston to start improving on the goals allowed sidge of the ledger. First off, they have Carey Price between the pipes. He did not play last night in preparation for this far more important divisional contest. Price has a .933 save percentage in division games this year and is the driving force behind the Habs' sixth place ranking in both save percentage and goals allowed this year. Look for Price to be the difference here as he is 24-8-4 all-time vs. the Bruins w/ a 2.33 GAA and .924 save percentage. Boston got its expected bump from making a coaching change, but they're due to come back down to Earth. 9* Montreal

8* Virginia (6:30 ET): In past analysis, I have not hid my affection for HC Tony Bennett and his Virginia Cavaliers. The Hoos are off perhaps their finest win of the year here having downed Louisville 71-55 on Monday. That was in Charlottesville and a much needed performance after dropping two of their previous three (both losses by 4 pts or less). Here, they'll hit the road to face a team they recently destroyed in Charlottesville, that being Va Tech, who found itself on the wrong end of a 71-48 beatdown back on Feb 1. As a result, the number for tonight's rematch is obviously a bit inflated, but in my opinion it is still not high enough. The Hokies are simply nowhere near UVA's class and the Cavaliers will take this game seriously considering they lost LY's visit to Blacksburg. Lay the points. 

Virginia continues to lead the nation in points allowed, giving up just 54.0 per game. As mentioned earlier, they held Va Tech to only 48 in the first meeting. The Hokies shot a woeful 35.7% from the floor in that game (including 3 of 20 from 3-pt range!) in what ended up being the most lopsided margin of victory in this in-state rivalry over the last 25 years. Even with the scene shifting to Blacksburg, I can't really see much justification for Va Tech keeping this one close. The Hokies are 12-1 SU at Cassell Coliseum this season, averaging over 85 PPG, but Virginia has won 23 of its last 33 ACC road games. While 3-3 SU over its last six games, two of Va Tech's wins were by a single point. They lost again (at Miami) on Wednesday.

Virginia has had an extra two days to prepare here, which should be considered an advantage they probably did not need. If there is one area that the Cavs do need work on it's limiting turnovers. They have given it away 29 times the L2 games after averaging just nine per game previously. Fortunately, Va Tech does not force many TO's. Again, Virginia is not bothered by playing on the road where they've gone 7-2 against the spread. On Monday, they looked as good as any team in the country (in the 2nd half at least), outscoring Louisville 39-21. Remember the Cardinals came into that game as hot as any team in the country. I believe Virginia is a top 5 team nationally and should be pretty close to that ranking after a win tonight. 8* Virginia

10* SMU (4:00 ET): Cincinnati is one of the few remaining teams in the country w/o a conference loss. The others are: Vermont (America East), Princeton (Ivy) and Gonzaga (WCC). However, a case could certainly be made that the Bearcats are NOT the clear-cut best team in the American. Today they'll face what will be their toughest conference game of the season, a trip to SMU. Not only are the Mustangs perfect at Moody Coliseum this season (8-1 ATS too!), they're 46-3 SU here the L3 seasons. They have also won seven straight, six of those by double digits, since losing the first meeting w/ Cincinnati by just two points. That 66-64 loss (as 4.5 pt dogs) on Jan 12 is the Mustangs ONLY loss dating back to November! Last Saturday, we saw three teams w/o a conference loss get priced as underdogs. All three lost, so I'll lay the points in this situation.

SMU comes in averaging a very impressive 1.18 points per possession in conference play. That's quite the efficient offense there. At the same time, they also are giving up only 58.6 points per game, which is fewest in the country and third fewest in the country. They are led by Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye, who is one of only two players in the conference averaging both 17 pts and 5 rebounds per game. He dropped a career-high 30 points (also had 10 boards) in Thursday's 66-50 win over Temple. Scary is the fact the team didn't shoot particularly well (37.9 FG%) and still won comfortably, on the road no less. They completely dominated Temple on the glass, outrebounding them 49-32. They also outrebounded Cincy in the first meeting. The fact that SMU just cracked the Top 25 is a bit preposterous. I've had them safely ranked in my Top 20 for some time.

Cincinnati was able to build a lead as big as 15 pts in that first meeting as they shot the ball much better than SMU, particularly from three-point range. But good luck w/ repeating that feat considering SMU outscores its visitors by 22 PPG at home. Both Bearcats losses this year took place out on the road. Granted the last one took place all the way back on Dec 10 at Butler. Like SMU, Cincy shot the ball poorly in its last game, yet still won by double digits. That should tell you right there that these are easily the two best teams in the American. But the key today will be the homecourt advantage plus the fact the Bearcats are just 1-5 ATS this season vs. teams allowing fewer than 64 PPG. 10* SMU

10* Under Bulls/T'wolves (3:35 ET): Minnesota has now gone Over the total in eight straight games. The last one was quite the high scoring affair as they lost 122-106 here at home to New Orleans. The team's defense continues to be a concern as they've now allowed an average of 113.8 points the last five games. Opponents are shooting above 50% against them during this time! With Tom Thibodeau in place as head coach for the foreseeable future, one has to think that this issue will eventually be remedied. One issue that won't be remedied this year, however, is the health of Zach LaVine. One of the team's three top scorers, LaVine has been lost for the year to an ACL tear. Other than Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, no other player on the team now averages more than 11 PPG.

Minnesota's opponent Sunday afternoon is Chicago. The Bulls have dropped their last two games as today will be the finale of a six-game West Coast swing. Wednesday's loss, while by 31 points, was at least understandable as it came against Golden State. However, there's simply no sugarcoating how bad Friday's 115-97 loss to Phoenix looks. They even got both Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade back in the lineup for that game. Butler, who will be a starter in next weekend's All-Star Game, may not play here as his heel continues to give him trouble. Again, the Bulls are coming off B2B sub-100 pt games and the Under is 18-9-1 in their road games. On the bright side, like Minnesota, their defense should improve as they've given up far more PPG than usual of late. Playing Golden State clearly skews their recent numbers.

Starting in place of LaVine is Brandon Rush, who averages all of 4.8 points per game. When these teams met earlier in the season, with both Butler and LaVine in the lineups, the final score was 99-94 in favor of Minnesota. Despite that, the O/U line remains basically identical for today's rematch. Note both teams rank in the bottom eight in the league in pace of play. In terms of "true shooting," which weighs both FT and 3-pt percentage, the Bulls are next to last in the league. That's due to their last place ranking in 3-pt percentage (.314). In terms of three-point FG's made per game, these teams rank 28th (Minnesota) and 30th (Chicago). They were a combined 10 of 36 from behind the arc in the first meeting. All of the above factors have me on the Under in this one. 10* Under Bulls/T'wolves

10* Over Warriors/Thunder (8:35 ET): Golden State is playing the second of B2B road games while OKC last played Thursday against a Cleveland team that decided to rest starters. But the Warriors should not struggle to score tonight in Kevin Durant's return to Oklahoma City. I say that not only because the Dubs just scored 122 points on a very good Memphis defense last night. But also because the Thunder have allowed 121 and 122 points in their two meeetings with Golden State this year. Thus, the key for tonight's game on ABC will be the Thunder offense, which does average 109.7 PPG at home despite a paltry 21st ranking in offensive efficiency this season. I expect this game to be played at a fast pace. Take the Over. 

At this point, I probably do not have to run through the accolades of the Golden State offense. They are #1 in efficiency - by a wide margin - as they were last year. They also again are pacing the league in points per game at 118.3. They've been above the average in four of the past five games. Last night they scored 122 on 50% shooting against one of the top defenses in the league. They did so w/ Steph Curry scoring only 18 points. Draymond Green had only four, but actually registered a triple double w/ 10 steals. Kevin Durant scored only 24, but you know he'll be highly motivated here. In the two previous games vs. the Thunder this year (both in Oakland), Durant has averaged 39.5 points per game.

Oklahoma City should be able to keep relative pace here. Speaking of pace, both teams are top seven in the league in that department, so this should be a fast paced game. Because they are #2 in pace, the Warriors are allowing over 105 PPG, same as the Thunder. The previous two games this season both stayed Under as OKC didn't shoot well either time, but at home I expect their offensive numbers to improve. 10* Over Warriors/Thunder

10* Iowa State (6:00 ET): All the goodwill that came with last Saturday's upset of Kansas (in Lawrence!) was quickly swept away as Iowa State was upset by Texas on Tuesday. Given it was the second of back to back road games and what the Cyclones did against the Jayhawks, maybe such a result was inevitable. They came out of the gate ice cold, making only 2 of their first 17 shots from the floor. They were down 30-13 to start the game. They eventually fought back, tying the game in the final minute, but lost on a pair of free throws in the closing seconds. While the Cyclones have now dropped three of four overall, I like their chances of bouncing back tonight against an Oklahoma team that is not playing well. ISU is 6-1 ATS the L7 games in the series, including a five-point win in Norman earlier this year. 

OU was actually a two-point favorite in that first meeting, but that was before we knew how bad this season would be for the Sooners. They've now lost six in a row and are coming off a tough result Wednesday vs WVU as they scored only 50 points at home. That was a bitter pill to swallow considering they led for much of the first half. But their shooting never got on track (33% for the game) and they struggled badly against the Mountaineers' press. This is clearly the worst team in the Big 12 this year as they're just 2-9 SU in conference play. They've failed to top 70 pts in any of the L4 games and probably won't here considering ISU allows only 63.9 PPG at home. 

While the loss to Texas was disappointing, last Saturday's win at Kansas shows Iowa State can play w/ anyone. With the exception of a loss to Iowa, there hasn't been a single game this year they haven't been in. They lead the conference in transition points (20.5 per game) and PG Monte Morris is a player to keep an eye out for. His assist to turnover ratio (4.59) is currently on pace to be the best in league history and the best by any player in the country in the L20 years. I already mentioned how the Iowa defense performs at home, well, the offense is pretty good too. It averages 82.3 PPG, so it's an avg MOV of 18.4 PPG here in Ames. I think the Cyclones are a lot better than their given credit for; I'd certainly consider them "top 25 worthy" in fact. They'll show that here. 10* Iowa State

8* Charlotte (5:05 ET): The Clippers are in the midst of a pretty tough stretch and the fact they are w/o their leader (Chris Paul) has made things all the more brutal. Going back to January 21st, they've had to play 9 of their last 10 games on the road. The lone home game was against Golden State. This will be their fourth straight game out East and the trip will finally end in Utah Monday. They are off a win, but that came at the expense of the dysfunctional Knicks. Prior to that, they'd dropped seven of nine and three straight. Meanwhile, injuries are also a legitimate reason to cite for Charlotte's current slide, although they are healthier now. Still they have just one win in the last nine games and it was a close one against Brooklyn. This is a game they NEED to win. Lay the points. 

Thursday night saw the Hornets fall here at home to the Rockets, 107-95 as 2.5-pt dogs. A poor third quarter (outscored 36-22) and turnovers (season-high 22) were to blame for that one. Houston is no stalwart defensively, so it was definitely disappointing to see Charlotte score only 95 points. They average more than 105 PPG for the year. But the team has not shot the ball well recently. That should change here facing a Clippers defense which has fallen off a cliff. Los Angeles now allows 109.6 PPG on the road this season and just gave up 115 to the Knicks. That was after allowing 118 against Toronto.

Lost in the all the drama surrounding Carmelo Anthony and Charles Oakley Wednesday night is the fact the Clips actually trailed the Knicks by 10 points in the fourth quarter. Blake Griffin is starting to play well again after returning from his own injury, but w/o Paul this is clearly a much worse team. It took a unique set of circumstances to come back and beat the Knicks, which is pretty embarrassing. I look at a Hornets team that has covered only one of its last 10 games (last Saturday at Utah) and seen an opportunity to "buy low." 8* Charlotte

8* Oklahoma State (4:00 ET): Oklahoma State lost outright as a favorite its last game while Texas won straight up as a dog. That typically creates a situation where there's value on the home side and this afternoon in Stillwater is no different. Beating Iowa State (at home) and having a 6-1 ATS road record may look impressive. But note that the Longhorns are an ugly 0-10 SU outside of Austin this season! Oklahoma State, whose games typically don't lack for scoring, averages an impressive 93.5 PPG in Stillwater. So I'll call for the Pokes to bounce back from Wednesday's disappointing result where they scored only 69 pts here and lost to Baylor by three points. They were actually 1.5-pt chalk for that matchup, notable because Baylor has lost only two games all year. That should tell you right there about how the marketplace views the Cowboys. Lay the points here.

The discrepancy between what Oklahoma State averages at home and Texas averages on the road is quite significant. The 'Horns average just 61.9 PPG on the road, so as you can see it will take quite the yeoman's effort on the defensive end to keep pace today. I'm not sure they have it in them. They did pull off an 82-79 win over OK State, in Austin, back on January 4th. That still stands as UT's highest scoring game - by a wide margin - in Big 12 play. They were down at the half, however, and were aided by an edge in FT attempts, an area where they typically do not convert. Note that wasn't a good spot for OSU as it was a "sandwich game" between West Virginia and Baylor. Tevin Mack had a career-high 27 pts for Texas, but is of course now out indefinitely due to a suspension. Given Mack's absence, it was pretty shocking to see the Horns upset Iowa State earlier in the week. Again, that game was shockingly decided at the FT line, which is not Texas' strong suit. Iowa State also shot the ball terribly early on. Perhaps that had something to do w/ the letdown spot they were in, coming off their own upset of Kansas.

OSU had a five-game win streak snapped w/ the loss to Baylor. Again, the idea of a letdown spot was in play as the Cowboys were off an impressive upset of West Virginia, in Morgantown no less! Playing two top 10 teams in a row is a tough spot. This will be a clear drop in class. Texas won't shoot the ball as well as Baylor did Wednesday as the loss of Mack clearly should catch up w/ them. OSU did hold Baylor w/o a field goal over the final four minutes of the game, so they can play some defense too. 8* Oklahoma State

10* North Dakota State (3:00 ET): North Dakota State currently leads the Summit League, but two teams are within one game of them. They faced one of the two today, at home, as Denver comes calling. This will be a revenge spot for the Bison, who suffered one of their three league losses this year at Denver, nearly one month ago. They were embarrassed actually, losing 79-55 as a two-point favorite. Given what the spread was there and what it is now, it sure looks as if there's some substantial value on the favorite for this rematch. They are off a blowout of South Dakota State on Thursday, which thankfully snapped a two-game losing streak. Denver is off B2B wins, one a blowout of Oral Roberts (as an underdog) and then a close call at home vs. Ft. Wayne last Saturday. 

The fact that Denver has been off for a week may have influenced this line as well. But I'm highly skeptical of this team being able to replicate recent performances. Back on Jan 31, they shot a ridiculous 72 percent in the second half against Oral Roberts, which led to a 93-69 win as three-point dogs. The Pioneers are a good shooting team (50% in conf play!), but that's taking things to an unsustainable level. Sure enough, their next time out they declined to 41.7%, but still managed to beat Ft Wayne thanks to C.J. Bobbitt's buzzer beater in overtime, which gave the team a 76-73 win as 2.5-pt home favorites. While having only played twice in the past 11 days seems like a nice luxury, it could lead to some rust and certainly NDSU will not be lacking for motivation here.

The Bison experienced a dreadful shooting night in the 1st meeting vs. Denver as they finished a lousy 31.7% from the floor (19 of 60!). That is easily their worst offensive showing of conference play. After losing as favorites to both IUPUI and South Dakota last week, NDSU bounced back by making over 51% of its shots in an 82-65 rout of South Dakota State on Wednesday. Note that the Bison have been a favorite in every Summit League game thus far. At home, their record is 9-2 SU and their scoring average jumps to 79.5 PPG. They have hit 80 pts in 7 of 10 Summit League games thus far. This is a pretty deep team w/ seven different players scoring at least 18 pts in one game this season. 10* North Dakota State

8* Nashville (2:05 ET): One should probably assume that both Minnesota (who I won with last night) and Chicago (who I won w/ Weds night) are both going to make the playoffs. That leaves one more guaranteed spot for the Central Division and right now it's looking like a dog fight between St. Louis and Nashville for third. The Blues have won three straight to take a one-point advantage, but it's the Predators w/ the better YTD goal differential. Looking to bounce back from a road loss to the Rangers, the Preds return to home ice Saturday for a game they simply have to take advantage of. They host Florida, a team that has regressed badly from LY's Atlantic Division winning campaign. The Panthers gave up six goals in their last game and have one of the worst goal differentials in the Eastern Conference. 

When handicapping NHL contests, something I always look for is how many shots is a team putting on net. After all, you can't score if you aren't getting shots! Well, Nashville has been putting plenty of shots on goal of late and doing it consistently. Over the L9 games, they've posted at least 32 shots eight times. They even outshot the Rangers 37-30 on Thursday. That game saw the Preds blow an early 2-0 lead w/ backup Juuse Saros between the pipes. Tonight, it will be back to Pekka Rinne, who checks in w/ an excellent .942 save percentage his L4 starts. Rinne also did not start when the team lost to the Panthers, in Miami, last month. I think he can be a real difference maker in today's rematch. Nashville is top 10 in goals allowed and on the penalty kill for the season. 

Florida may only be four points out of eighth place in the East, but they have not been playing playoff caliber hockey. There has been some curious organizational decisions as the GM was fired despite LY's surprise run. Coach Gerard Gallant was also shown the door and replaced w/ the new GM. While the team has gone 12-10-9 under Tom Rowe, they were beaten badly by the Kings Thursday. Things were even more lopsided than the 6-3 final score shows as the Panthers trailed 6-1 before a pair of garbage time goals. Compared to counterpart Rinne, Roberto Luongo's recent play in goal has not been good at all. His save percentage over his L4 starts is just .898, which is not good at all. This should be an easy one for the home team. 8* Nashville

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): I certainly am not averse to buying low on bad news. In this instance, the "bad news" for the Bucks is that for a second time in three years Jabari Parker has suffered a season-ending knee injury. Parker's permanent departure from the lineup comes at a time when Kris Middleton had finally rejoined it. Compounding matters is that Milwaukee is ice cold right now. After looking like a legit player in the Eastern Conference for much of the first half, they've dropped 11 of 13 - both SU and ATS. But help arrives tonight in the form of a visit from the lowly Lakers. Sure, Los Angeles has covered six of seven, but they just got blown out in Detroit and this will be the finale of a five-game Eastern trip. You have to wonder what they have left in the tank. Lay the points.

Even w/o Parker, I believe this line should be close to double digits. Parker, who started at power forward, was second on the team in scoring. But Giannis Antekounmpo is still here and Middleton is now back. I think there's been a clear overreaction to the Parker injury by the marketplace. Even as the losses have started to pile up, the Bucks still sport a positive net efficiency rating. I used the phrase "buy low" in the first sentence of this analysis and it's something I say often. Milwaukee is not as bad as they've looked lately, particularly in the Heat game Wednesday. Strangely, that loss to Miami dropped them to 0-7 SU/ATS when playing with three or more days rest. They're .500 in all other games and have a positive point differential.

This is a really low number to lay to the Lakers on the road. Luke Walton's team is just 6-24 SU on the road, giving up over 112 points per game. This is the worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. Walton has been trying out some different lineups of late, which while smart for the long-term, will also lead to short-term struggles. When priced as a road underdog (as they are here), the Lakers are being outscored by an awful 12.8 points per game. Milwaukee's scoring increases rather dramatically at home anyway, so even w/o Parker, I expect plenty of points from them tonight in what virtually shapes up as "must-win" for them. 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Pelicans/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Minnesota comes into this game on a seven-game Over streak. The Over has also hit the L5 times they've played New Orleans. But, for several reasons, I think we'll be seeing less points scored than expected tonight. First off, both teams' defenses are due to improve. Minnesota is giving up an average of 114.4 points its last five games. That's well above their season average of 105.6 PPG and 10 PPG more than what they allow at home this year. Having faced two of the most efficient offenses in the league during that time (Cleveland, Toronto) didn't help matters. New Orleans is also due to start giving up less. They were torched for 127 pts by Utah on Wednesday, one of their highest totals allowed all season. Finally, the Pelicans scoring average dips rather dramatically on the road. Therefore, I'm on the Under.

Minnesota did beat Toronto Wednesday, 112-109 as three-point dogs. That win snapped a four-game losing streak. That said, the T'wolves allowed the Raptors to shoot 53.2% from the floor, something HC Tom Thibodeau relentlessly harped on afterwards. So I expect the defensive end to be a real point of emphasis tonight. Toronto also made 11 of 24 three-pointers in that game, something I don't think New Orleans is capable of doing. Speaking of three-point shooting, Minnesota's isn't very good either. They are just 28th in the league in 3PM per game. They're also a surprising 25th in pace of play. Remember that they just lost one of their three top players - Zach LaVine - to a season-ending injury as well. This is not a deep team. Other than LaVine, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, no other player averages more than 10.5 PPG. 

New Orleans also allowed a high shooting percentage in its last game. Utah made over 54% of its FGA in a 127-94 rout Wednesday and that game was played in the Big Easy. One has to assume the Pelicans defense can only improve after that poor effort. However, I'm not so sure about the offense. This team averages only 98.8 PPG on the road. That's the third lowest average in the league. While Anthony Davis likely improves on his poor performance vs. the Jazz (scored only 12 pts), he probably won't come close to matching the 45 he scored against the T'wolves the last time these teams met, which was a home game. Because of the low PPG, the Under is 15-9 in Pelicans' road games this season. The Under is actually now 64-39-3 the L106 road games, so this is a long-term trend. 10* Under Pelicans/T'wolves

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Wild were in a tough spot Wednesday, which is why I played against them! They fought valiantly, but ultimately came up short against a well-rested and motivated Chicago side that's looking to catch them in the Central Division. Even after conceding those two points, the Wild still lead the Blackhawks by five points and more telling is their YTD goal differential is significantly better (+54 to +12). What made the spot so tough for Minnesota on Wednesday is they were coming off a tough four-game trip through Western Canada. After a day of rest, the task now becomes far less difficult as they host a Tampa Bay team that has dropped 8 of its last 10 visits to the Twin Cities. I'm on the Wild this time. 

The Lightning have battled injuries all season long. The most notable is knee injury that's had Steven Stamkos on the shelf for months. As a result, the club currently finds itself out of playoff position. Granted, only six points back, they're still in contention. But they'll have to jump a number of teams. Back to back wins, the latest an impressive 5-0 shutout of the Kings, have brought some optimism. But both wins were at home against West Coast teams. Believe it or not, but Tuesday was just the third time all year Tampa Bay has posted a shutout win. They are just 5-11 SU this year off a win by 2+ goals. Goalie Ben Bishop has just had an off year and in his L4 starts his save percentage is a woeful .885.

Minnesota doesn't lose at home often, so the chances of it happening twice in a row seem minimal. Their home record is 17-6-1 and most encouraging is that the number of shots they allow per game drops significantly down to 26.6. They did outshoot Chicago on Wednesday, 38-32. Even though I was obviously rooting against them, I was still impressed by the way they rallied back from an early 2-0 hole to force OT. Another big reason I played against the Wild vs. Chicago was that Devan Dubnyk was NOT in goal. He will be tonight. Dubnyk is #2 in the league in goals against average (1.99) and #1 in save percentage (.933). The team is 29-12 w/ him between the pipes this season. The Wild offense has scored 13 goals in the L3 games. 8* Minnesota

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): We have two teams trending in totally opposite directions here. Miami has, improbably, won 12 in a row and covered the spread in all 12 games. Brooklyn has lost 11 straight and is a hideous 1-22 SU its L23 games. The Nets' current 13-game home losing streak is the longest to ever begin a calendar year! But I'm going to buck the trends and back the underdog Friday night at the Barclays Center. Why would I do such a thing? Well, in addition to the simple laws of regression, the Nets have certainly been more competitive of late. They just took Washington to overtime Wednesday night, which made it B2B covers as their six losses have all been by single digits. Consider this number is nearly identical to what the Heat were asked to lay - in Miami - just 12 days ago! Take the points.

Miami's current win streak may be the biggest shocker of the NBA season so far. It has more than doubled their total number of wins for the season as they were 11-30 SU before it began. Interestingly though, they have been favored in just four of the 12 games. While they've obviously covered all four spots, note over half of the wins during the streak have been by eight points or less. I'd still be leery of laying this many points w/ them, especially on the road. Sure they are 7-3 ATS as a favorite so far in 2016-17, but this will be only the third such time on the road and by far the most points they've been asked to lay in any road game this season. Even after factoring in the current win streak, Miami's road record is still only 10-17 SU and they're being outscored by 4.3 points per game. 

It's not like Brooklyn is great anywhere, but at least seven of their nine wins this year have come at home. The last one was January 2nd, but as I said earlier, they've been more competitive of late. This will be their third time facing Miami during the Heat's current win streak and both times the Nets have played them tough. The first meeting, which took place here in Brooklyn on 1.25 saw them blow an 18-point lead entering the fourth quarter. Five days later down in Miami was another close one as the Nets only lost by eight despite a massive discrepancy from behind the three-point line (outscored 33-12). I simply believe that both team's disparate streaks are due to end some time and why not simultaneously? A couple of weeks ago, it would have been considered insane to see Miami in this price range on the road. 8* Brooklyn

10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): On Saturday, I played against Akron and they promptly dropped their first MAC game of the season, 85-70 at Ohio. In my analysis for that game, I'd brought up how the Zips should be considered one of the luckiest teams in the entire country as they could boast six wins by five points or less. Well, you can now make that number SEVEN (wins by 5 pts or less) as they rebounded from the loss to OU by beating Ball State 65-63 on Tuesday. They were nine-point favorites though, so they failed to cover for a fourth consecutive game. Tonight finds the Zips playing at Eastern Michigan. EMU was leading the MAC West for much of the season, that was until this current three-game losing streak that they're on. But I have them bouncing back here in Ypsilanti.

Akron does hold a 70-63 win over Eastern Michigan, back on January 20th. But remember they'd also beaten Ohio at home too. That loss by Eastern Michigan was what started the current slide as they've not only lost three straight, but also five of six overall. Two of those have come at home as favorites. They are still more than alive in the division, however, as all but one team in the MAC West is separated by just one game in the standings. Meanwhile, still w/ a sizable lead in the East, might we start to see some complacency set in w/ Akron? Note that the Zips' last three wins have all been by three points or less and by a total of six points. While they are a dominant home team (won 29 straight!), results on the road have been so-so as Akron is just 3-5 SU in "true" road games this year and 13-19 SU the L3 seasons. 

Eastern Michigan averages an impressive 88.0 PPG at home. Two Saturdays ago, they were a play for me as they went to Miami and recorded their 1st win in Oxford in over 20 years and did so in pretty dominant fashion. Since that time though, they've dropped three straight. In all three games, free throw shooting was an issue for the Eagles. Against both Kent State and Northern Illinois, they watched as opponents got to the charity stripe w/ tremendous regularity. Tuesday in Toledo saw them get to the line only EIGHT times themselves while the Rockets shot a blistering 53% for the game including 10 made three-pointers. But with an avg MOV of 19.5 PPG at home, I can't help but think EMU is a tremendous value, especially in such a desperation spot. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Montreal (9:05 ET): This shapes up to be a big-time mismatch with the top team in the Atlantic (Montreal) facing the last place team in the Pacific (Arizona). Even though they've lost four in a row, the Canadiens still have a comfortable lead in their division and a visit to the desert is probably just what the doctor ordered. Save for Colorado, there isn't a team in the league worse than the Coyotes, who are actually off a rare win. It was a 3-2 victory at San Jose Saturday. Even with the long break in between games, I feel tonight will be the inevitable letdown for the 'Yotes. The Habs just lost to Colorado Tuesday (shutout!), so they'll certainly be eager to atone for that embarrassment. This is their longest losing streak of the season and it comes to an end tonight! 

Thanks to the return of a healthy Carey Price, the Habs have enjoyed a nice bounce back after last season's disappointment. But having Price between the pipes is irrelevant when the team can't score. They've been shutout in B2B games, first by Edmonton (1-0) and then by Colorado (4-0). The loss to the Avs becomes all the more shocking when you consider the Habs beat them 10-1 earlier this season. Montreal has totaled just three goals during this four-game losing streak after scoring five times in its first game back from the Break, which was a win over Buffalo. Fortunately, Arizona comes in ranked 28th in the league in goals allowed (3.1 per game) and also allows one of the highest per game shot totals (33.5) in the league. When these teams faced off early in the season, Montreal scored five times on 43 shots and won easily.

The 'Yotes have now won four of six, but I'm still not a believer. In addition to ranking 28th in goals allowed, they are 29th in goals scored per game. They are 25th on the power play and 26th in penalty killing. Even in the win at San Jose (which came via shootout), Arizona gave up 40 shots on goal. That's too many to get away with and win consistently. Montreal is 6-2 SU this year following a loss by 2+ goals, so they have a history of bouncing back in this spot. They are also 16-9 SU against teams w/ losing records. Arizona has won only five times all year against teams w/ a winning record. 8* Montreal

8* Louisiana Tech (9:00 ET): La Tech is 16-8 SU overall and currently in second place in Conference USA. They trail Middle Tennessee by only two games. A one-point loss way back on January 7th to UTSA (were 16.5-pt favorites) still looms large. But I believe the Bulldogs can certainly still end up finishing in first place, although it will be tough considering they've already lost to MTSU. For this game, I feel they're drastically undervalued. Part of it is a four-game ATS losing streak. The other half of the equation is UTEP has pulled not one, not two, but THREE consecutive upsets. They were underdogs of seven points or more all three times. The latest saw the Miners beat Middle Tennessee at home Saturday, 57-54 as 11-point dogs. They can't do it again, can they? I'll lay the points.

These two met back on January 5th and it was all La Tech in 20-point (64-44) win in Ruston. Neither team shot well (both below 40%), but a key difference was La Tech making 10 three-pointers while UTEP only made two. The Bulldogs offense was again on full display Saturday night w/ a 94-point effort Saturday against Marshall. Granted, the defense wasn't very good (gave up 90 pts), but I don't think UTEP is capable of that kind of point production. Even with the recent resurgence, UTEP has scored more than 66 points only twice in its last 10 games! 

Prior to winning six of their last seven, UTEP was just 2-13 SU on the year. So color me skeptical of them. Teams have not shot the ball well against the Miners recently as Middle Tennessee was actually the first in the L6 games to be above 40%. You have to tip your cap to UTEP for handing MTSU its first league loss of the year. But they actually trailed 27-16 at the half and didn't take their first lead until there were less than three minutes left in the game. It was a similar story last week against UAB as the Miners trailed that game 28-19 at halftime before rallying to win 63-59 as seven-point dogs. As impressive a run as this has been, eventually the Miners will revert back to the team we saw earlier in the year. 8* Louisiana Tech

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Both of these teams won as large favorites on Tuesday. However, while Houston covered, Charlotte did not. The Hornets at least snapped their long losing streak (seven games!) by beating Brooklyn 111-107. However, it should be pointed out that the Hornets held a 17-point halftime lead and controlled the game despite a pretty poor shooting performance. Houston, on the other hand, pulled away late from Orlando in a 128-104 win and cover. They too had a big halftime edge, but also had to outscore the lowly Magic 34-20 in the fourth quarter to grab the cash. Charlotte's recent struggles have had more to do w/ injuries than anything else and now they're healthier. Houston hasn't exactly been tearing it up at the betting window either. Take the points w/ the home dog.

Even after losing seven in a row and falling to ninth place in the Eastern Conference, the Hornets still sport the East's fifth best point differential and net efficiency rating (those two things are tied together). The recent schedule hasn't been all that kind as they had to play the Warriors twice, not to mention the Wizards and Jazz, who are two of the hottest teams in the league. I mentioned they didn't shoot well Tuesday vs. Brooklyn. They finished the game at 39.2% including 7 of 26 from three-point range. They should shoot much better tonight. Houston is not known for its defense and gives up 110.8 PPG on the road. Cody Zeller might finally return to the lineup tonight, but regardless, seven Hornets scored in double figures vs. the Nets. This team is 16-10 SU at home this year and this will be just the FOURTH time they've gotten points here.

Houston is only 4-4 SU its last eight games and an even worse 2-6 against the spread. Though they did defeat Charlotte 121-114 at home last month (led by 20 at half), I don't think they should be laying this many points on the road. While the Rockets have one of the league's best ATS road records (18-11), that's because they are 7-1 as dogs. I simply believe Charlotte is due to turn it around, both in the standings and at the pay window. They are a great value as a home dog in this spot. 10* Charlotte

10* Florida International (7:00 ET): According to KenPom, FIU has been one of the unluckiest teams in the entire country. That's confirmed by six losses by five points or less while they have no such victories. Of course, the Panthers have won only five games all season and just one of their last 10! They are coming off a 15-point loss at Charlotte Saturday, which dropped them to 0-10 SU in "true" road games. But here at home, they've been far more competitve (outscoring opponents!) and I like the spot hosting a Rice team that will be laying points for a second straight road game. The favored Owls did cover Saturday as they won 95-80 (sound familiar), but that was against North Texas, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country!  Take the points. 

As you might guess, FIU shoots the ball a lot better at home. They are at 48.9% overall from the field including 38.1% from three-point range. Then again, offense certainly wasn't the issue Saturday against Charlotte, who shot a blistering 59.6% from the field against the Panthers. Expect the defense to be better tonight simply because it can't be any worse than it was there. Now Rice is a top 25 offense in terms of points per game, but they've also been able to take advantage of what has been a really weak recent schedule. You would not expect a team like Rice to be 3-0 SU as road favorites, but they are. However, covering in that spot twice in a row is unfamiliar territory. 

Rice's defense also gets significantly worse away from home. They allow opponents to shoot 46.7% from the field in road games. Curiously, the Owls are 0-9 ATS their L9 Thursday games. The last one, they lost to Old Dominion, outright, as 4-point favorites. Something else that should be noted here is Rice had been off for a full week heading into the North Texas game. This week, they play not only here at FIU, but at FAU on Saturday. The home team has won each of the last two meetings between these schools. Look for this one to be closer than expected w/ an outright upset a distinct possibility. 10* Florida International

8* Under Clippers/Knicks (8:05 ET): This is not a very attractive TV matchup as the Clippers are still w/o Chris Paul and the Knicks are still w/o any hope or sensible direction. We knew that Paul's absence would be detrimental to the Clips' fortunes; the only question was just how much. Well, the team has lost seven of its last nine and has quite the challenging schedule this month. This game would certainly appear to be the most "winnable" of the next six, that's for certain. As for the Knicks, they just lost outright at home to the Lakers. So there's not really an edge when it comes to playing the side here, however, the total does appear to be inflated due to the rash of points allowed by both teams of later. Therefore, I'm going to play the Under here.

Twice in the last five games, the Clippers had to play Golden State. As a result, we've seen them give up an average of 123.2 PPG during that time. That number almost certainly will start to come down. They did just give up 118 in their last game, a loss at Toronto, but the Raptors are another of the league's top offensive teams. So too is Boston, who the Clips played Sunday. I actually had the Under there and the final score was 107-102, a pretty easy win and the only time the Under has cashed for LA over its last seven games. But the team they take on tonight ranks just 18th in offensive efficiency, so this is a major reprieve after facing three of the top seven plus a Phoenix team that plays at a top three pace. 

The Knicks recent defensive numbers are also inflated. Although in their case, that's due to one game in particular and not playing Golden State twice. Back on January 29th, they played a four overtime game against Atlanta and lost 142-139. That obviously skews all recent averages. So the fact they have given up about 10 PPG more over the L5 games compared to season long averages should soon be rectified. The Knicks are not good defensively, but facing the Clippers w/o Paul is clearly advantageous. Note that the Under is 5-1 when the Knicks are off a SU loss as a favorite (as they are here). Offensively, the Knicks do not shoot the ball well. Want proof? They have shot 50% or better from the field just TWICE in their last 47 games! 8* Under Clippers/Knicks

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The two top teams in the Central Division clash tonight. While I've been fairly adamant that the Wild are the better team compared to the Blackhawks this season and the game is in Minnesota, I'll be siding with the more "battle tested" team here. That's largely because this is not a great spot for the home team. The Wild are off a the always tough trek through Western Canada and are playing w/o rest tonight. They won in Winnipeg last night to cap the four-game, seven-day trip that took them through the three Western provinces (well, no Saskatchewan as there's no team there!). Chicago, meanwhile, is well-rested. They've been off since Saturday when they downed Dallas, 5-3. 

This is just the second meeting of the year between these teams. (The Wild one the first, 3-2, in the Windy City). It's a very important game from the Blackhawks' perspective. Despite B2B wins, they still trail the Wild by six points for the division lead. They also have now lost to the Wild the last six times they've played. They got swept in the season series last year, losing all five times! So revenge will certainly be on the minds of the players tonight. Again, given the situation, Chicago has to take advantage. They have been off for three days while Minnesota is playing for a second straight night. The Wild are just 4-4 SU when playing w/o rest this season.

Minnesota's only loss on the recently completed trip came to a Calgary team that strangely has had their number. They too have won B2B games, totaling 10 goals in the process. However, the number of shots they allowed during the four game trip is certainly concerning. They allowed 40 last night to Winnipeg, making it 146 in the L4 games overall. There is some uncertainly over whether or not Devan Dubnyk will be in goal tonight after his 38-save performance last night. There's a clear dropoff when backup Darcy Keumper is between the pipes. The team is just 6-5 SU in his starts this season. The Blackhawks' Patrick Kane has called this the teams "biggest game of the season" and I think they'll respond in kind. 10* Chicago

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For a second straight game, the defending NBA Champs will pay visit to a red-hot team. Monday saw them go to D.C. to take on a Wizards team that had won 17 straight at home and 11 of 12 overall. It took overtime - and a miraculous shot by LeBron James at the end of regulation - but the Cavs did emerge victorious by a score of 140-135. Now they take on an Indiana team has won seven straight games. While it may seem like a tough spot for LeBron and company, I think all the chatter about "what's wrong" with this team has galvanized them and we're about to see them go on a bit of a run. I'm actually disregarding my own numbers on this one as I feel the Cavs' net efficiency is a bit misleading due to James missing a few games. One of those was against Indiana on November 16th. Cleveland gets revenge here. Lay the points. 

Indiana is actually 8-1 ATS its last nine games vs. Cleveland, but they've benefited from James sitting out multiple times during that streak. Back in November, it was a 103-93 win here at home over the Cavs. Incredibly, that was the fourth time in the past two years that the Pacers got to play Cleveland at home with James resting. But let's be clear, LeBron is playing tonight and coming off an outstanding performance against the Wizards where he went for 32 points and 17 assists. Something to keep in mind is that James fouled out in overtime and the Cavs still won, thanks to Kyrie Irving scoring 11 of his 23 points in overtime. Kevin Love, the subject of trade rumors, scored 39 points and had 12 rebounds. Love might very well be in store for another big game tonight as he went for 27-16 in that November meeting. Indiana could be w/o Thaddeus Young here, which would make defending Love all the more difficult. 

Indiana's defense has been a lot better of late with them holding four straight opponents below 100 ptsa and three of them to 90 or less. But none of those teams were Cleveland, who ranks fifth in the league in offensive efficiency and makes 39% of its three-point attempts. In fact, the Pacers' last four opponents all rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency and yes that includes Oklahoma City. While the Pacers have been tough at home all season, I view this as another statement game for Cleveland, who has quietly covered its last three games. 10* Cleveland

8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): Like Xavier-DePaul, this is another game where the home team should roll. UConn is looking to bounce back from an 82-68 loss at Cincinnati (the top team in the American) on Saturday and has the perfect opponent to do just that. South Florida has yet to win a game in conference play and I don't see them starting tonight. UConn already beat USF once this year, by 21 down in Tampa, and were 7.5-point favorites when they did so. Using that number as our baseline, it would seem as if tonight's line should be several points higher. Lay the points.

I will concede right off the bat that this is not your typical strong UConn team. Barring some miraculous late season run or winning the AAC Tournament, they will not even make the field of 68. They trailed the whole way Saturday against Cincinnati, but again that's a very good team they were facing. Because of injuries, they've been down to as few as six scholarship players at times this year, but it appears as if both Juwan Durham and Steven Enonch will be back tonight from their respective foot injuries. Prior to losing to Cincy, the Huskies were on a season-best three-game win streak. They've won four in a row here at home. I suspect we'll see a lot better defense from Kevin Ollie's team tonight after they gave up 82 points to Cincinnati. That was the most allowed in any conference game this season.

Also helping the UConn defense in this one is the fact South Florida comes in averaging only 62.4 PPG in conference play. They have lost all 11 American games by an average of 16.4 points. Their last win came all the way back on 12.22 vs. Delaware. They only time they won a road game this year came back on 12.1 at Troy. What's real concerning here for the Bulls is they just shot better than 50% in B2B games and still lost - comfortably - both times. I would expect a sharp decline in the team's overall shooting tonight as UConn holds its visitors to just 61.2 PPG at home. Don't be too fooled by the final score from Saturday (83-74) as the Bulls actually trailed Temple by 23 at the half and only shortened the margin once the game was well in hand. The first time these teams met, USF allowed UConn to make 12 three-pointers. 8* Connecticut

8* IPFW (7:00 ET): Among schools whose games were regularly lined, Fort Wayne was the top ATS team in the country last year at 21-8 (72.4%). Despite the predictable regression in that department this year (they're just 7-11 ATS) and the fact they are just 5-5 SU in conference play, I still view this as the best team in the Summit League. One thing is for sure and that's the Mastadons take care of business at home where they are 11-1 SU and averaging a whopping 95.9 PPG. Tonight, they look to rebound from a tough road loss at Denver as they host South Dakota in what is a revenge spot. I look for the Mastadons to win big in this one. Lay the points.

IPFW lost to Denver at the buzzer - in overtime - on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in the last six games, a far cry from last season when they lost only four conference games all season and were the top seed entering the Summit League Tournament (were upset in the semfinals). But again, I feel that the homecourt edge tonight will be the difference maker. The Mastadons have not only covered 19 of their last 27 games played on this floor, but they've topped 100 pts in three of the last four home games! It's been a road-heavy schedule that's contributed to the downturn of late. This will be just the second home game for the Mastadons in the last month. The first saw them beat rival IUPUI by 30 on January 25th.

South Dakota pulled an upset over IPFW at home on January 14th. It was an ugly 66-63 game where neither side shot well. Unfortunately for the Coyotes, they won't be able to count on Ft. Wayne shooting that poorly again. Especially considering they give up 78.7 PPG away from home to begin with. South Dakota pulled an upset Saturday, beating the first place team in the Summit (North Dakota State), 76-66 as six-point underdogs. But this will now be their third consecutive road game. They've shot above 50% from the floor in the first two, but I do not see that trend continuing this evening. Note IPFW is a strong 9-1 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss. 8* IPFW

8* Xavier (6:30 ET): The Musketeers just upset Creighton, 82-80 as five-point dogs on Saturday, and did so w/o the services of Edmond Sumner. Sumner (knee) was lost for the year in late January and remember that Myles Davis has also left the team. So there's plenty of attrition going on here, but it didn't stop the team from recording its first win over an RPI Top 25 opponent on Saturday. If the Musketeers were able to down a team like Creighton, then certainly they should have little difficulty here against Big East lightweight DePaul, right? The Blue Demons enter this contest having lost all but one league game and they are 0-9 SU on the road as well. Let's continue to take advantage of Xavier still being undervalued in the wake of some personnel looses. Lay the points.

How did Xavier upset Creighton? Well, let's start by pointing out that they shot better than 50 percent from the field and got really hot late. Five three-pointers were the key during a 19-7 second half run which essentially decided the game. It also helped that Creighton missed free throws. Now starting in place of Sumner, Quentin Goodin scored 15 points. It was the Musketeers third straight win, so they've yet to lose since the Sumner injury. All three wins have been close, but tonight marks - by far - their easiest league game of the season. Xavier is 11-1 SU at home this year, outscoring visitors by 14.8 points per game. They've beaten DePaul by double digits three straight times, including twice last season. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as home favorites of 12.5 or more points.

Saying DePaul is "not good" would be putting it mildly. Their only Big East win of the season came by a single point, at home, vs. Providence. True road games have been a complete disaster as they've lost all six (also 0-3 at neutral sites) by an average margin of 17.1 points per game. They come into tonight off a 13-point loss to Marquette, at home. They gave up 92 points there and that's not a good sign when you only average 62.0 per game on the road. Incredibly, the Blue Demons are shooting just 35.7% from the field this season when away from home. That includes an atrocious 24.9% from three-point range! At the same time, they allow opponents to make 48.7% of their FG attempts and 38.2% from three-point range when they are the road team. This should be a blowout. 8* Xavier

10* Michigan (9:00 ET): When these teams met nine days ago in East Lansing, Michigan State was a desperate team. They entered the game on a three-game losing streak. However, they were able to defeat the rival Wolverines 70-62 as slight three-point favorites even though the sharper dollars appeared to be on the other side. Now it's Michigan that's desperate. They lost here in Ann Arbor to Ohio State over the weekend, 70-66 as four-point chalk, dropping them to just 4-6 straight up in Big 10 play. However, I don't see them dropping B2B home games. After all, they are 12-3 SU this year in Ann Arbor, holding opponents to just 62.0 points per game. Therefore, I'll lay the short number. 

Michigan State was a play for me last Thursday as they went to Nebraska and won 72-61 as a short road favorite. So it's now B2B wins for Sparty and they were off this weekend. But this team simply isn't as strong an outfit as we're used to seeing under HC Tom Izzo. Thursday marked just their second "true" road win of the year and when they're not a home favorite, the team's record is just 5-8 SU this season. They did shoot a blistering 63 percent from the field in the second half against Nebraska, but that's unlikely to be matched here due to the Michigan defense not to mention the simple laws of regression. They also made 11 of 17 three-point field goals in that game, which is well above their norm.

Michigan is better at home primarily because the defensive numbers improve so much, but they also shoot the ball slightly better. They did not shoot the ball well at all in the first meeting w/ MSU, finishing that game at just 33.9% from the field including 7 of 26 from three-point range. Note that prior to suffering that loss in East Lansing, the Wolverines had just blown out Indiana by 30 (here at home) the game previous. While MSU is considered "safely" in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) right now, Michigan is right on the bubble. They BADLY need to win this game and I think they will as the hot shooting we're used to seeing from John Beilein teams should return. They were only 37.3% from the field against Ohio State Saturday, which was pretty shocking. 10* Michigan

8* Puck Line Vancouver (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I'm taking the Canucks +1.5. I just played against Vancouver Saturday. It was an easy 6-3 win for me (and Minnesota). It was the Canucks' third straight loss, the last two coming since the All-Star Break. They've been outscored 13-4 during that time. As ugly as that sounds, getting an additional 1.5 from the oddsmakers here is a solid value against a mediocre outfit like Nashville. Sure enough, these two faced off twice in January and both times the game was decided by one goal. Only four goals total were scored in the two games combined. The Predators are off a shutout loss, 1-0 at home to Detroit on Saturday, which is hardly inspiring. Vancouver does no worse than a one-goal loss here.

While in third place in the Central Division, it's a distant third for the Preds. It's also a precarious one-point lead they have over the Blues, who won last night. I will concede that despite losing 1-0 to the Red Wings on Saturday, the Preds somewhat dominated. They finished w/ a 42-19 edge in shots. Recently, the team has done well in getting the puck on net. It was the third time in the last five games w/ at least 39 shots. But it also marked the first time in five games they didn't give up at least 30. The team has also played its fair share of one goal games recently. To be exact, they've been involved in 11 since the New Year. That's out of a possible 16 games. They've played 22 one-goal games overall this season.

Vancouver's road record, third worst in the league at 6-15-3, certainly won't inspire much confidence. But again, that's where the puck line comes in. Four of their last six road games have been decided by one goal. Overall, the Canucks have played even more one goal games than the Preds (25 total). Also note that Nashville has dropped three straight games to teams w/ losing records. Can a desperate Vancouver team at least end up tied at the end of regulation here? I think they can. Not only that, they could very well pull the outright upset. 8* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5)