10* Over Capitals/Islanders (7:05 ET): The Islanders were kind to me on Friday, which was the last day games were played in the NHL. They blew out Buffalo, 5-1, for their second straight win. Washington is also off a four-goal win on Friday, theirs coming by a 4-0 score over Tampa Bay. The Caps were not quite as kind to me when I last played them, as they came up short in a shootout at Philadelphia. But overall, there can be no denying as to which is the hotter team in this division battle as Washington has won seven of nine while the Isles have lost five of seven. A giant chasm exists between the top five and the rest of the Metro. Yet, all that being said, I'm a bit leery of laying the price on the road, so instead I turn to the total.

Surprisingly, the Capitals are just 15th in goals per game. Yet, they've scored four goals in five of their previous six victories. They should not find much difficulty scoring here against the team that is 27th in goals allowed. The Over is 6-1 in the Islanders' last seven games and they've allowed four goals at least four times during that stretch. One area where the Isles struggle big time is in the # of shots allowed. Friday's win snapped a stretch of six straight games allowing more than 30 shots. They allowed 29. In what ended up being a victory last Tuesday, they allowed 50 shots on goal to Boston. Only Arizona is currently allowing more shots per game for the year. Washington comes in averaging just over 30 shots per game.

These teams have faced off twice this year w/ the Caps putting 38 shots on goal both times. Somewhat shockingly, they were shutout in the first meeting (3-0), but then returned the favor here in Brooklyn w/ a 4-2 victory. Both games took place earlier this month and both saw Jaroslav Halak in goal for the Isles. But in his last four games, Halak has posted an .892 save percentage. Whether it's him or Thomas Greiss between the pipes here, I think it will be trouble. Obviously, the trick here then becomes New York scoring a couple times on Braden Holtby, but considering they've found the back of the net nine times in the L2 games, maybe that's not as difficult as it sounds. The Over is 4-1 in Islanders' home games this season if the total is 5.0. 10* Over Capitals/Islanders

10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): In the rugged ACC, Syracuse is on the verge of becoming somewhat irrelevant. Perhaps that's an overreaction. After all, the program was just in the Final Four (as a 10-seed) last season. But it does appear as if another mediocre regular season is in the cards, judging by recent results. The Orange are nowhere close to the level of North Carolina, Duke, Virginia and Louisville. That become patently obvious when they lost outright, by 33, to former Big East foe St. John's here at home, six days ago. They were 14-point favorites in that game. It was the Orange's second home loss in three games and the worst ever at the Carrier Dome. But there is a precedent for a bounce back and keep in mind this team used to never lose non-conference home games. I'll still lay the points here. 

Syracuse was simply atrocious from the field against St. John's, which partly explains the shocking result. They were just 32.8% overall, including 4 of 24 from three-point range. This is the first time in Jim Boeheim's coaching career that he's lost five times in the non-conference portion of the schedule. St. John's has generally been awful under Chris Mullin, so I really can't state how shocking a loss, particularly the margin it came by, was. But, as I said earlier, there is precedent for a bounce back here. After losing to Georgetown on 12.17, two days later the Orange blew out Eastern Michigan here at the Dome, 105-57. I expect something similar, maybe not quite as severe, here. The team is 5-2 ATS when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. 

Cornell is the opponent Monday and they are a regular on the Syracuse schedule. Not surprisingly, the head to head matchups have been lopsided in favor of the Orange. It was a 21-point win last year. Cornell is not as strong this season as they have only three wins, one of them coming their last time out against SE Missouri State. The 78-62 win there represents their largest margin of victory - easily - all season. Away from home, where the Big Red has played most of its games, they are giving up over 80 points per game. Offensively, they have only three players averaging more than six points per game. 10* Syracuse

8* Detroit (8:30 ET): My own power rankings suggest that this spread should be over a touchdown, but there are special circumstances in play Monday night. With the Giants losing outright on Thursday, Dallas not only has the NFC East sewn up, but homefield advantage throughout the playoffs as well. That makes the L2 weeks of the regular season pretty irrelevant from their perspective. For Detroit, however, much is still to be gained. We already know that the NFC North will be decided next week when they host Green Bay. However, a win tonight would at least clinch them a spot in the playoffs. Given the circumstances at play here, I'll be taking the points and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Lions won SU.

Detroit has enjoyed a fortuitous season to this point as they have managed to go 8-4 SU in one-score games. The only time all year that they have NOT trailed in the fourth quarter was a 28-13 win at New Orleans three weeks ago. However, I will give them credit in that LW's loss at the Giants marked their first loss all season by more than a touchdown. I know it sounds crazy, but QB Matt Stafford seems to have benefitted from the retirement of WR Calvin Johnson as no longer is he locked into one receiver. Defensively, the team is in the top 10 in yards per game allowed. What's really impressive is that only four opponents have been able to score more than 20 pts against this Lions defense. None of those games have taken place in the last eight weeks. Given what you've just read, it should not come as shock to find that this team is 5-3 ATS as a dog this year.

After that 9-0-1 ATS start, the Cowboys have failed to cover four in a row. They were "back doored" B2B weeks by Washington and Minnesota, then "Odell Beckham'd" by the Giants. Last week, they were back and forth w/ Tampa Bay and needed four turnovers to pull out a 26-20 win. While a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog, Dallas is just 5-5 laying points at the betting window. They are saying they won't be resting starters, but I imagine they will. There's no reason to increase RB Ezekial Elliott's workload before the playoffs and I imagine we'll see Tony Romo come in for Dak Prescott at some point. The Lions are going to be highly motivated coming off last week's loss and that's the difference here. 8* Detroit

8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I pounced on this line the second I saw it as I believe there's a good chance Cleveland will be resting stars following it's thrilling 109-108 victory over Golden State on Christmas Day. Regardless of who does or does not rest for the Cavs and what the line ends up being, this play stands. Detroit did not play Christmas Day and is a desperate team right now. They've lost five in a row now after falling here at home to Golden State on Friday. They did cover there (barely!), however, and this is somewhat of a "lucky" scheduling quirk in that they draw the Warriors and Cavs sandwiched around their big NBA Finals rematch.

The defending NBA Champs are now 22-6 and have won 10 of their last 11 games, the lone loss being a situation where they rested LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (at Memphis on December 14th). That trio combined for an incredible 76 points, 25 rebounds, 17 assists and 10 steals yday. You have to wonder what any of them would have left in the tank for tonight. Two of the Cavs' six losses this year have been w/ James out of the lineup. They also haven't had to play much on the road lately. They did trail the Warriors by 14 early in the fourth quarter yday and I'm still a bit concerned about the team's defense, which still only ranks 13th in efficiency. That will have to improve if they are to repeat as World Champs.

Detroit is a good defensive team (7th in efficiency). They've slipped some in that department of late, but again, this is a desperate team entering the final week of 2016. Despite the recent struggles though, the Pistons are one of just seven teams in the East to have outscored opponents this year. They are allowing only 94.0 PPG at home. They are 3-1 ATS as home dogs factoring in the Warriors game. Again, I expect Cleveland to rest at least one (likely two?) of its superstar trio. As of press time, both LeBron and Kyrie's statuses are questionable. Again, regardless if they play not, this play stands. With the injury to JR Smith, the Cavs are a depth-shy team. They used only eight players Sunday and one of them (DeAndre Liggins) was held scoreless. 8* Detroit

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): What an odd scheduling stretch it's been for the Bucks. Tonight's battle in the Nation's Capital will complete their third consecutive home and home series w/ an Eastern Conference opponent. The first, with Chicago, saw them take both games in impressive fashion. The second, with Cleveland, brought two tough losses (one in overtime). This one, with Washington, started out by them winning 123-96 as three-point favorites on Friday. Therefore, given that result and what we've seen from the two teams over the course of the season, I don't really understand this line. The Bucks have been the better team all year long and while the Wizards have had a profitable December, Friday's result illustrated that they still have a long way to go. Take the points. 

Though currently only .500, Milwaukee has the look of a playoff team to me. Over the L4 seasons, they have alternated playoff and non-playoff years, so that pattern works now works in their favor for 2016-17 after dipping down to 33 wins LY. They are one of only five Eastern Conference squads to be currently outscoring opponent by 2.0 points per game and I like the young talent on hand here. Particularly Giannis Antetokounmpo, who scored a career-high 39 points on Friday. If this man is not an All-Star, there should be a federal investigation. The team scored 73 pts in the first half and shot 56.3% for the game against the Wizards. While those marks will prove difficult to match tonight, especially on the road, note Washington is 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency. The Bucks were able to score 66 pts in the paint against them on Friday.

Coming into the year, many (myself included) had thought the Wizards might be the young team ready to step up in the East. Thus far, that obviously has not happened. They have been a better team at home and like I said earlier; they've been better in December (7-2 ATS L9 games). But, to show how the market regards them, this will be the first time in the last seven games they have been favored. They were favored at home vs. Milwaukee (-4.5) back on December 10th and wound up covering by half a point. They won't be as fortunate this time around. 10* Milwaukee

10* Over LA Clippers/LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Even after factoring in the alleged home court advantage for the Lakers here (both teams play their home games at Staples Center), this line seems way too low. Then again, considering the Clippers could be w/o both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, maybe the oddsmakers do have it right. We know Griffin is out and Paul is currently listed as questionable due to a hamstring issue. Playing without either on Friday night, the team turned in a real dud, losing at home to lowly Dallas by a score of 90-88. That game obviously stayed well Under the total. So did the Lakers' game Friday night, a 109-90 loss at Orlando. But given what we've come to expect from the two teams over the course of the season and the fact the rivalry is long overdue for an Over, I'm going w/ the Over here. 

The Clippers have not gone Under in consecutive games for some time now. In fact, the last time it happened was November 7th & 9th. It's been 23 games w/o it happening again. Obviously, not having Paul or Griffin would be a big blow to the offense. But on Friday, the bench actually scored 52 points while Jamal Crawford had a team-high 26. The Lakers are an awful team defensively as they rank 29th in efficiency, allowing 1.1 points per possession. They allow more than 110 points per game and have allowed at least 100 in 12 of the past 13 games, their lone win (over Philly) being the exception. The Clippers are 14-3 Over when facing a team w/ a losing record and if Paul does play, it will simply be an added bonus!

Defensively, the Clippers started the year at an incredible pace. They have since fallen off, somewhat dramatically. They still rank fifth overall in efficiency, but considering they were 1st less than a month ago and on an almost historic pace, that's a pretty severe drop. The team they last played (Dallas) ranks near the bottom of the league offensively, so I consider that a one night reprieve for the Clips. The Lakers can score as they average 109.8 PPG here at Staples Center. They did not shoot well in the Orlando game (35.6 FG%), but should certainly improve upon that here and the team is also getting Julius Randle back in the lineup. 10* Over Clippers/Lakers

8* Pittsburgh (4:30 ET): This is a critical game if the AFC North. The first place Steelers can put the division "to bed" w/ a win. But a Ravens victory would dramatically alter things as it would give them a season-sweep and put them in driver's seat. But, there's a small problem for Baltimore here and that's this is a road game. The only two places they've won this year (besides Baltimore) are Cleveland and Jacksonville. Having to win their final two games, both of which are on the division road (next week at Cincinnati), thus puts them behind the 8-ball. Making matters more problematic is the fact that Pittsburgh is rolling; the Black and Gold have won and covered each of their last five games. Lay the points here.

The Steelers were not at their best either of the last two weeks, yet were able to win a pair of tough road games over the Bills and Bengals. Two weeks ago in Buffalo, they turned it over three times, yet were still able to win 27-20 thanks to a dominating performance from RB Le'Veon Bell (200+ yards). Last week, they fell behind Cincinnati early. It was a 20-9 game at halftime and they didn't take the lead until just over seven minutes were left in the game. But it's not as if the offense didn't move the ball. They gained 382 yards and the only reason they fell behind was settling for field goals. There were six of them from Chris Boswell, meaning the offense actually scored seven of the nine times they have the ball. One of the times they didn't was the final drive of the game when they moved the ball 75 yards on 13 plays and ended the game by kneeling the ball inside the Bengals' 10-yd line. Despite the close nature of the game, they actually outgained Cincinnati 382-222.

Baltimore was a bit of a fortunate winner last week. Sure, they led the Eagles early, but Philly elected to go for a 2-pt conversion and the win on the final play. It was the second straight non-cover for them after losing to the Patriots the previous Monday. We know that the Ravens have a strong defense, but they could be w/o CB Jimmy Smith here and that potentially means there's a major issue when trying to cover Steelers WR Antonio Brown. Bell did not have a good game in the first meeting this year (only 32 yards), but I'll guarantee he plays better here. Also, that first meeting was Ben Roethlisberger's first game back after suffering an injury and he did not play well. Shockingly, the Steelers have lost four straight times to the Ravens. That streak comes to an end on Christmas Day. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Boston (12:05 ET): Taking a look at the current Eastern Conference landscape, it becomes quite clear that there are two teams - Cleveland and Toronto - well ahead of the pack. There are also three teams - Miami, Brooklyn and Philadelphia (especially the latter two) - that have already fallen off the playoff pace. Everyone else (10 teams) is bunched up, seperated by no more than four games. Of those 10 teams, the Knicks belong near the bottom. Granted, record-wise, they're not just middle of the pack, but actually near the top. But this is a team that's been outscored by about 2.2 pts per game (similar differential to Miami) and is a lousy 3-9 SU vs. teams w/ a winning record. They also rank 25th in defensive efficiency.

Coming into MSG on Christmas Day will be the Knicks' division rival, Boston. The Celtics were expected to be the top contender to Cleveland in the East this year, but so far that has NOT been the case as it's Toronto instead. But Boston certainly is in discussion for the third best team in the conference. Coming off an outright loss (at home) to Oklahoma City on Friday night, motivation should not be an issue for the road team here. Nor is the price range judging from the fact that this season has seen the C's go a perfect 6-0 against the spread as a road favorite of three points or less. Overall, they are 12-5 ATS on the road, one of the best marks in the league. 

Ironically, the Knicks have the best ATS home record in the league (11-4). But, again, that's largely a byproduct of being undervalued against bad teams. Case in point; they're off B2B wins and covers over Indiana and Orlando. It appears as if the media will be infatuated with Kristaps Porzingis' status here. But I believe that Celtics PG Isaiah Thomas is the player to watch in this game. He scored 29 points in the 115-87 win over the Knicks last month while Porizingis played one of his worst games of the season, missing 10 of 15 shots. Thomas almost led the team to victory Friday by scoring 15 consecutive pts in the 4Q, but ultimately it was not enough. But the Knicks are a weaker opponent than the Thunder. Being a top 10 team in offensive efficiency, the Celtics should be able to score plenty here. 8* Boston

10* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Though it's the Dolphins and not the Bills still in playoff contention, to me, the latter is still the better team. Yes, this is a game that Miami "has to have" and their playoff odds figure to take a massive hit if they were to lose here. But just because they "must win" doesn't mean they "will win." This is the dreaded second of back to back road games for the 'Fins, both in divisional play no less. Sure they clobbered the Jets last Saturday, 34-13 as slight 2.5-pt favorites. But that game was somewhat "gifted" to them via four New York turnovers as total yardage was 360-303, not in Miami's favor. That's pretty par for the course for this team in 2016 as they actually rank a woeful 28th in YPG differential. Also, Buffalo has a YTD point differential of +44 (Miami is +1 & that's after LW's blowout) despite being two games below Miami in the AFC East standings. Lay the points.

The Bills were fortunate enough to draw the winless Browns last week and that led to their most complete game in sometime. The final score was 33-13 w/ a 451-269 edge in total yards. Still their playoff chances are on life support as is HC Rex Ryan's tenure here. But I anticipate a strong close to the season nontheless. This is a revenge spot for Buffalo, who blew an 11-point lead down in Miami earlier in the year. That loss snapped what was at the time a four-game win streak for the Bills. Previously, they had beaten Miami five out of the last six times they had played (also 5-1 ATS) including a season sweep last year. 

Let's not forget one of the key storylines here and that's Miami is still sending out a backup QB, Matt Moore. Moore was sufficient enough against the downtrodden Jets LW, but I can't possibly see him throwing for another 236 yds on just 12 completions again. RB Jay Ajayi literally and figuratively carried the load in that 1st meeting of the year w/ Buffalo, but he's slowed down in recent weeks. In fact, the Dolphins have failed to run for 100 yds as a team five straight weeks. Even after beating the Jets, Miami is just 2-10 ATS its L12 December games. Normally, I might be scared off by having to lay "the hook," but this spread should be closer to a touchdown anyway. 10* Buffalo

10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): There are two ways to view LW's disastrous Jaguars' loss, which resulted in the firing of now former HC Gus Bradley. One way would be to take a look at the fact team threw for all of 83 yards and somehow still led the Texans 20-8. The other way would be to simply chalk it up as another brutal result that ultimately led to Bradley's dismissal. Whatever way you choose, I'm still taking the Jags and the points this week. This has been a far more competitive team than their 2-12 SU record might indicate. Also, you have Tennessee in a spot where they are ripe to be upset. They pulled out a somewhat miraculous rally last week in Kansas City. While much improved, the road favorite role is certainly new to the young Titans. I can't remember the last time they were getting this level of public support. Again, fade 'em and take the points.

Tennessee comes in riding a three-game win streak that has them tied w/ Houston (Indy one-game back) atop the AFC South. But all three wins were by six points or less and they've been outgained over the course of them. On the road this year, the Titans are averaging the same number of points (23.4 PPG) that they are allowing. This will be the sixth time this year that they've been favored and while they're 4-1 SU in the previous five, they're also only 2-3 ATS. They've been road chalk just one time and failed to cover there (at Chicago). As a favorite of more than a field goal, they are 0-3 ATS. They were somehow able to beat BOTH Denver and Kansas City even though Marcus Mariota did not throw a single TD pass. Going from road dog to road favorite in a week's time is a pretty massive swing, regardless of opponent. 

Jacksonville is 0-6 SU at home. No team wants to go winless in front of its fans over the course of a season. Having given away one home game to London means this is the home finale. Adding to the motivation here is the coaching change. Players should certainly be out to impress whomever ends up leading the new regime. Again, the Jaguars have played a lot better this year than the record shows. Again, they led Houston 20-8 last week, on the road. It was their fifth loss by five points or less. It's also easy to forget that Tennessee trailed KC 17-6 last week. I just feel taking the points is the way to go here. 10* Jacksonville

9* Under Kings/Stars (8:35 ET): The Kings burned me last night by going into Nashville and shutting out the Preds 4-0. That was also the fourth consecutive time we've seen their final result stay Under the total. Tonight they are in Dallas to play a Stars team who is riding a three-game Under streak. I'll play accordingly as prior to last night the Kings hadn't been doing much scoring. However, I must now concede that Peter Budaj has proven himself to be an adequate substitute for the injured Jonathan Quick.

Over his L4 starts, Budaj has posted an other-worldly .976 save percentage, allowing just three goals on 124 shot attempts. During this span, he's posted two shutouts. All of these are road games, keep in mind. The first was a 1-0 overtime win at Pittsburgh, which all things considered is a very impressive performance. The other was obviously last night. Note last night was a 1-0 game heading into the third period as well. Prior to a third period explosion, the Kings had scored all of three goals in regulation the last four games.

Over its last five games, Dallas has scored all of 12 goals. Six of them came in a win over Anaheim on 12.13. Since then, they've been held to five goals in three games, all of them here on home ice. I like that Antii Niemi is projected to get the start tonight as he too has been sharp of late w/ a .941 save percentage his L4 turns between the pipes. He's been especially good at home throughout the year, turning in a .938 save percentage. The Under is 8-3 when he starts at home. 9* Under Kings/Stars

10* Over Ohio/Troy (8:00 ET): This is a very low total for a bowl game. Coming into this year, bowl games had seen an average of 58.7 PPG scored dating back to 2011. Each of the first six bowls games went Under before Memphis & Western Kentucky provided the requisite fireworks we're used to seeing this time of year. Of course, a big reason for this total being so low is the fact Ohio was the top Under team in the country at 11-1-1. But rarely did Frank Solich's Bobcats face a total this low. The final score was 29-23 when they lost the MAC Championship Game to Western Michigan. The opponent here in the Dollar General Bowl (played in Mobile, AL) is Troy, themselves a bit of an Under squad. But in a game like this, where the opponents are unfamiliar, I'm willing to wager this game will be higher scoring than expected. Take the Over.

Though a regular participant in these bowl games, Ohio has never had much success. They've won only two of nine and LY's was definitely "one to forget" as they blew a lead against Appalachian State and lost 31-29 (Camellia Bowl). Looking back, we can see the majority of their bowl appearances have resulted in high scoring games. This year's squad has been carried by the defense, which permits just 22.2 points per game. That said, they typically allowed more than that average when facing a bowl eligible opponent. In fact, five of six bowl teams that they faced during the regular season scored at least 27 points against the Bobcats. Only one reg season O/U line was below 50 pts and that was against offensively inept Kent State. The vast majority of their games fell just shy of the individual totals. 

For all the talk surrounding Ohio's defense coming into this matchup, Troy's defense was slightly better on a points per game basis (22.0 allowed). But the key will be the Trojans offense, which led the Sun Belt in scoring, passing and total yardage. They come in averaging a healthy 34.2 PPG and that number would be even higher were in not for the "egg" they laid at home to Arkansas State on November 17th (lost 35-3). This team should be extra motivated by how their reg season ended, another outright loss, this one as seven point favorites at Georgia Southern. I remember that game because I was on Georgia Southern! At one point though, this team was ranked as they were 8-1 SU w/ the lone loss to Clemson. This is their first bowl since 2010. As is the case w/ Ohio, there's a chance this will close as the lowest total for any Troy game this season. 10* Over Ohio/Troy

10* Over Warriors/Pistons (7:35 ET): The Warriors went Under again last night (ninth straight time!) and I'm sad to report that I was caught holding an Over ticket on that one. Though I'd like to point out that at the outset, it certainly did appear as if the game w/ the Nets would be quite the high-scoring affair. It was 34-33 (Nets!) after the first quarter, but from there every quarter would see one of the two teams score less than 20 points. Two of those belonged to Brooklyn, who was held to just 36 pts in the second half! As I mentioned in yday's analysis, Golden State not only ranks #2 in offensive efficiency, they are also #2 in defensive efficiency. But in the second night of a back to back and w/ Cleveland on deck (X-Mas day game!), I expect that defensive efficiency NOT to be on full display here. Take the Over.

The Pistons are in a terrible way right now as they've gone 0-4 SU, ATS their L4 games, all of them double digit losses. HC Stan Van Gundy ripped the team earlier this week, but it seemed to have no effect as they lost 98-86 to Memphis here at home on Wednesday. It was the third consecutive game scoring 90 or fewer points and fifth time in the last six getting held to 95 or fewer. That and the fact the L4 head to head meetings between these two squads have all stayed Under certainly appears to set a somewhat "dangerous" precedent for this play. But ... note that Detroit is 13-3 Over the L3 seasons following three consecutive Unders. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark this season!

We need not worry about Golden State's offense most likely; they come in averaging a league-leading 117.4 points per game (4.4 more than every other team) and their games, on average, are also the highest scoring in the league. Save for games against Utah and Memphis, both of whom are top three in defensive efficiency, this will be the lowest O/U line set for any of the nine straight games that have gone Under. Detroit is not a top three team in defensive efficiency, but they are seventh. Still, they've also faced off w/ some pretty weak offensive opponents of late. In a game I think will be "closer than the experts think," I look for an Over. 10* Over Warriors/Pistons

8* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): This battle of Eastern Conference bottom feeders is unlikely to attract much attention, but there is value on the home side, at least in my opinion. The Islanders snapped a long losing skid (five games) the last time they hit the ice, winning at Boston 4-2. Goal scoring has not really been a problem, however, it's goal prevention that has given this team fits. Fortunately for tonight, they'll be hosting the team that has scored the second fewest number of goals in the entire league. 

It's easy to forget that the Isles were a playoff team each of the L2 seasons. This year, little has gone right, but their woes haven't really extended to home ice. While sporting an awful 3-7-2 road record, they are also 9-7-4 here in Brooklyn. There have been a number of games where they've blown leads in the third period, so really the overall record should be better. One of those came last week in Buffalo where they led by one goal at the end of both the first and second periods, only to lose in OT. So this is a revenge spot to boot. 

The Sabres have not won since beating the Islanders. It's three straight losses and counting following last night's 3-1 home loss to Carolina. Playing w/o rest doesn't seem like a good spot for a team that has fallen behind in each of its last six games. Both of these teams typically allow a ton of shots. That would seem to favor the one that tends to score more (funny how that works!) as the Isles were even able to win at Boston despite allowing 50 shots on goal. 8* NY Islanders

8* Navy (4:30 ET): It was only three weeks ago that Navy stood tall at 9-2 SU and was heading into the AAC Championship Game as a home favorite over Temple. But, on a fateful play where both QB Will Worth and slotback Toneo Gulley, their fortunes quickly sank (pun intended). First, they lost the AAC Champ Game to Temple 34-10. Then, a week later we saw their historic 14-game win streak over rival Army come to an end. This is is the first time since 2014 that the Middies have experienced B2B losses and because of that and the injuries, we've seen the biggest line move for any bowl game take place here. I'm in "buy low" mode with the Middies here as they face Louisiana Tech in the Armed Forces Bowl. Take the points.

Louisiana Tech also enters in off B2B losses. If you're a regular subscriber, you may recall me playing against the Bulldogs in the C-USA Title Game and it paid off. It appeared as if defense was a foreign concept to the contingent from Ruston as they were shredded for 58 points in a loss to Western Kentucky. The week prior, as 15.5-pt road favorites, they lost 39-24 at Southern Miss. So they too arrive in poor form. Again, the defense was just horrific against WKU as they allowed a ghastly 656 yards and the final score would have been even more lopsided had it not been for three Hilltoppers' turnovers. Given the 235 rushing yards La Tech allowed there, one must wonder how they will handle the top rushing attack in the nation (310.9 YPG). My guess is "not well." This will be the first time that the Bulldogs have seen the vaunted triple option.

To say these teams have different offensive philosophies would be putting it mildly. Navy will run almost exclusively while La Tech has accounted for all of 13 - yes 13 - rush yards the L2 weeks. They did throw for 500+ against WKU, but I don't think QB Ryan Higgins will find that same success here against the Navy defense. Meanwhile, Navy backup Zach Abbey should improve dramatically from his performance against Army. He's had an extra week to prepare here and will be facing a defense that doesn't face the triple option in practice every day. The line move has begat a ton of value and it's absolutely worth pointing out that Navy has been a consistent money-maker taking points through the years. They've also won their bowl game each of the L3 years, including this one in 2015. 8* Navy

10* West Virginia (4:00 ET): I've seen terms like "upstart" thrown around when referring to Northern Kentucky, who comes to us by way of the Horizon League. And perhaps that's true; the Norse are 9-3 straight up in this still young season, having already pulled off three outright upsets. Overall, they are 7-1 ATS at the betting window, including a perfect 4-0 when getting points. But, needless to say, it's a big step up in class from their previous opponent (NAIA school Brescia) to West Virginia, who almost everyone considers one of the seven best teams in the country. Well, except the pollsters, but what to do they know? Bob Huggins' Mountaineers are 8-0 SU in Morgantown w/ an avg MOV of 41 points per game! So, yeah, don't be afraid to lay this number, which should be several points higher.

WVU is a deep team. Huggins has elected to go w/ a 13 man rotation at times. Given the defensive pressure we see from them, that's probably a wise move at this juncture of the season. Currently, the Mountaineers lead the country in forcing turnovers at a whopping 26.3 per game. They are a top four team in terms of defensive efficiency and also top 15 on the offensive end. The lone loss came at a neutral setting against Temple (by four) and since then the Mounties have won six in a row, five of those coming by at least 27 points. The one exception, ironically, was perhaps the most impressive in the streak: a 66-57 win at Virginia. Despite beating Radford 84-57 three days ago, Huggins was sure to label his team's second half performance as "really lethargic," so expect this to be a motivated favorite this afternoon. For the record, while WVU was outscored in the second half by Radford (35-31), they also entered halftime w/ a 53-22 advantage.

Maybe Northern Kentucky is an "upstart." But here they're simply "overmatched." Norse HC John Brannen wasn't exactly pleased w/ his team's last performance, despite it also being a 20+ pt win. But the difference between NKU and WVU is that the former is in no position to "name the score" here. Picking to finish seventh in the 10-team Horizon League, the Norse have taken advantage of some generous lines thus far. Remember, their last two opponents were Eastern Washington (maybe the biggest overachiever in terms of wins & losses in the country) and a NAIA school. They have lost to Austin Peay, NC Central and Illinois by 15. Without question, this will be the toughest opponent they face all year. 10* West Virginia

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): I get that the Clippers have regressed some since a very hot start to the year and that the Spurs are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in their last five games. But I still believe that at home, the Clips deserve to be favored in this spot. Consider that earlier in the season, during that hot start, the Clips went to San Antonio and whipped the Spurs 116-92 as 4.5-pt dogs. While this game be that lopsided? Probably not. But after watching what Los Angeles did for me on Tuesday night vs. Denver (I laid the points), I'm confident that they can win this game.

This is the Spurs' second tough road game in the L3 nights. Tuesday saw them go into Houston and snap the Rockets' 10-game win streak. But they had to pull off a desperate rally, culminating w/ a Patty Mills' three-pointer w/ 12.9 seconds remaining, to earn that 102-100 victory. They also benefited from some uncharacteristic poor Houston shooting. The Rockets made only 38% of their total FG attempts and missed 32 of 38 three-pointers. The other teams, save for Boston, that San Antonio has beaten during this win streak of theirs quite frankly haven't been very good. The list includes Brooklyn, New Orleans and Phoenix. Overall, they've shot 10 full percentage points better than their opponents the L5 games. That is a difficult differential to maintain.

In terms of efficiency, the Clippers are 5th on offense while San Antonio is 6th. On defense, the Spurs are 4th and the Clippers are 5th. So that seems like a pretty even matchup to me. The Clippers' only loss over the L6 games was one of those dreaded Sunday afternoon affairs, in Washington, at the end of a three-game Southeast trip. They returned home to blow out Denver on Tuesday, shooting 54.7% from the floor. They did so w/o the services of Blake Griffin and it is his continued absence that can be the only justification for the current number on this game. I think it's an overreaction. The Spurs will be resting Manu Ginobili tonight, by the way. As a road fave of three points or less, the Spurs are a surprisingly poor 4-9 SU and ATS the L3 seasons. This is just the fourth time all year that the Clippers will be an underdog. They are 2-1 SU/ATS previously. 8* LA Clippers

9* Under Maple Leafs/Avalanche (9:05 ET): The season is still young, but already it would be fair to label both of these teams as non-playoff contenders, especially Colorado. It will be a battle of last place teams tonight when the Maple Leafs visit Denver and somewhat surprisingly, I don't think there will be that many goals scored. In fact, the Under has been a pretty safe bet for both of these clubs of late. It is been perfect for Toronto this month (their L9 games have all stayed Under) while its cashed three straight times for Colorado. Gonna stick with the trend here as both teams are having trouble scoring. Take the Under.

How bad is Colorado? Well, they are last in the league in goals scored and goals allowed per game. Thus, it should not be a shock to find that they also have the fewest number of points - 23- by a pretty safe margin. Arizona is the only other team in the league to have fewer than 30 points right now. Goaltending obviously hasn't been good for the Avs, but at least it's Semyon Varlamov likely to be between the pipes tonight. The Under is 11-6 in his 20 starts so far. But also, the Avs can't seem to score. They were shutout in their last game and have found the back of the net just two times in the last three games overall.

Toronto, meanwhile, has scored exactly two goals in four consecutive games. Again, the Under has cashed in the team's last nine games. None of those have seen more than five total goals scored. I see this being a 3-2 final at most. Leafs netminder Frederik Andersen has been really good of late w/ a .940 save percentage his L4 starts. Note that three of those last four games have gone past regulation, so Anderson has allowed only seven goals in regulation. Note Colorado has been already been shutout six times this season and in Tuesday's 2-0 loss to Minnesota, they managed only 18 total shots. 9* Under Maple Leafs/Avalanche

10* Philadelphia (8:25 ET): Despite the disparate records, I still feel the Eagles should be favored here. The Giants come into the City of Brotherly Love riding a wave of positive headlines. It is their defense that is drawing the most accolades after holding the Cowboys and Lions to a total of 13 points the L2 weeks. Yet, ironically, Philly's defense is giving up fewer points per game, at least here at home (15.3 PPG allowed). If the Giants were a stock, my guess is that most analysts would be yelling "sell high" right about now. Quietly, the offense has been held to 17 pts or fewer each of the L3 games. That hardly makes them an ideal candidate to be laying points on the divisional road. Going back to the respective records, the G-Men are 10-4 w/ a point differential of +22. The Eagles are 5-9 SU, but actually have a point differential of +17. I smell what will be dubbed an "upset" here. Take the points.

Being that these are divisional rivals, they have met one time before this season. Ironically, I was on the G-Men when they hosted the Eagles on November 6th. Philadelphia gave that game away w/ two early Carson Wentz INT's putting them into a 14-0 hole. But the Eagles still finished w/ a 443-302 edge in total yds in what ended up being a narrow 28-23 loss. The problem from the Eagles perspective was that three times they failed to convert on fourth down, the final time coming on the NY 17 yard line w/ under two minutes to go. Close losses have been the story of the Eagles' season as they have six of them by seven points or less. They have zero wins within that margin. All five Eagles victories have come by at least nine points. Isn't it time they won a close one?

The Eagles are coming off B2B close losses, first to the Redskins and then LW at Baltimore when they went for a two-point conversion and the win, down 27-26, on the final play. Had they converted that play, everyone would probably view them a lot differently right now. Something else to consider here is how much better the Eagles are at home where they are 4-2 SU (1-7 SU on the road). I mentioned earlier that they only give up 15.3 PPG here. Despite how these teams have been trending of late, the Giants remain a poor 27th in YPG differential. Before the Week 9 matchup, the Eagles had won and covered four straight over the Giants. Carson Wentz set his career his passing yards (347) in that 1st meeting while Eli Manning has lost to the Eagles more times than any opponent in his career. 10* Philadelphia

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): If this game were being played late in the season, it would carry great importance. That's because entering today, the Kings and Predators are tied for the "coveted" eighth spot in the Western Conference w/ 35 games apiece. Both have played 32 games. But the Preds are the ones trending in the more positive direction right now as they've won B2B games while LA has lost two straight. The Preds are also typically a reliable team to take on home ice and while they're "only" 10-3-3 this year, note they are averaging 3.4 goals per game and outscoring opponents by more than a full goal per game. Los Angeles, still obviously missing goaltender Jonathan Quick, is just 6-9-2 on the road.

The Kings, as per usual, are doing a stupendous job of limiting the number of shot opportunities by the opponent. They come into tonight's game ranked #1 in that department, allowing just 25.8 per game. The problem is that w/o Quick, they're allowing too many in. The team's overall save percentage of .905 is in the bottom third of the league and obviously well below what Quick would post. Again, this is problematic when facing a team that's averaging 3.4 gpg at home. Peter Budaj has played better of late, but the team still lost to red hot Columbus on Tuesday (in a shootout) despite a 46-27 edge in shots. The Kings offense, ranked just 21st in goals per game, has scored only four times in the L3 games.

Nashville has also been doing a great job at limiting shots lately. Juuse Saros stepped in between the pipes and turned in another strong effort Tuesday in New Jersey, but it was Pekka Rinne that led the 2-1 victory at Philadelphia the previous night. That win now looks more impressive in retrospect given that the Flyers have now won 11 of 13 overall. Rinne is looking like the more likely starter tonight, but regardless, the Preds have allowed all of four goals the L3 games. This is a revenge spot for them as well as very early in the year, they lost 3-2 out in LA due to a massive discrepancy in shots on goal. I do not believe such a discrepancy will exist this time around, at least not for the Kings. 10* Nashville

10* Over Warriors/Nets (7:35 ET): Believe it or not, Golden State has now gone Under in eight straight games. While, historically speaking, the team may be the greatest ever in terms of offensive efficiency over a two-year span, they are quite underrated defensively as well. This year finds them currently ranked #2 in defensive efficiency w/ only Memphis ahead of them. In the last game, they held Utah to only 74 points on 35.5% shooting. It was the third consecutive game where the Warriors allowed 90 points or less. But here, they should have a "willing dance partner" in terms of an Over as Brooklyn is pretty horrific at the defensive end (28th in efficiency) and I see the Dubs scoring a lot more here than they did vs. Utah on Tuesday. Take the Over.

Brooklyn is actually fairly competitive at home (6-7 SU) as opposed to the road where they are an awful 1-13 SU. Surprisingly, they are averaging 106.6 points per game this year. However, that scoring average has largely been rendered irrelevant due to a non-existent defense that is permitting an ugly 114.4 PPG. That's the most allowed per game in the league right now, which quite obviously can be problematic when facing the Warriors. Last Saturday, Golden State faced one of the two teams that rank below the Nets in defensive efficiency (Portland) and ended up scoring 135 pts. Thus, they can essentially "name" their point total here. I certainly expect them to top their YTD average of 117.4 PPG (1st in the league) in this one. Since November 14th, the Nets have allowed at least 122 points eight times.

With the highest scoring offense facing off with the worst defense (in terms of PPG allowed), half of the equation here is more than taken care of. But what about the other end of the floor? Well, despite the Warriors' defensive exploits mentioned above, I think it may prove difficult for them to hold a third consecutive opponent below 40% shooting. Brooklyn is due for an uptick in its own shooting percentage as they were held below 40% in their last game, a 116-104 loss at Toronto. This may be one of the highest totals we've seen all year, but these are the two teams whose games average the most total PPG in the league. Brooklyn is also playing at the fastest pace in the league while Golden State is third. That means plenty of possessions. The Nets are 11-1 Over this year vs. the Western Conference. 10* Over Warriors/Nets

8* Idaho (7:00 ET): Idaho is probably one of the weakest teams in the entire bowl field, but this is still far too many points that they are getting. I can't see Colorado State being that enthused about this bowl assignment. Boise is a place they regularly travel to because of the Mountain West schedule and sure enough one of their five losses this year took place on this field. They did cover against Boise State, losing only 28-23 as huge 28-pt dogs. Starting with that game, they actually closed the regular season w/ seven-game ATS win streak. Things really ended on a high note as they thrashed both New Mexico and San Diego State. But, again, I seriously doubt the Rams will be able to match that intensity in this "ho-hum" matchup, even though they are searching for their first bowl win since '13. Take the points. 

Believe it or not, Idaho is 2-0 SU/ATS all-time in bowl appearances. Both were on this field in what was then known as the Humanitarian Bowl. The last was in 2009. So the Vandals should be absolutely thrilled to be here, especially since it will be the program's last bowl game. Wait, what? Yes, the school was booted from the Sun Belt and thus has made the logical decision to drop down to the FCS level. Despite knowing this coming into the year, the team performed very well for 4th year HC Paul Petrino, particularly down the stretch. Like Colo State, they also come in riding a seven-game ATS win streak! All of those games came against SBC foes, but the lone SU loss was on the road to Applachian State. Thus, I'll reiterate that this sure does seem like a lot of points.

All the talk here seems to be centered on QB Nick Stevens and the Colorado State offense, but what about an Idaho defense that allowed 14 pts or less in three of its final four reg season games? The Vandals' overall defensive numbers are a bit skewed due to early season games vs. Washington and Washington State. (Remember that Colorado State was also crushed by Colorado in it season opener). Both teams are a lot different now than they were back in September, but a real key in handicapping this matchup is that this will be just the second time that CSU is favored by double digits in FBS play this year. In fact, they were the betting favorite in only 4 of 11 FBS games! 8* Idaho

10* Air Force (4:00 ET): This will be the second time this week that I'm taking the Flyboys here in Colorado Springs. Monday, I backed them getting points against Colorado. Though Colorado somewhat gifted us the cover w/ some bad FT shooting down the stretch, note that it was also a tie game w/ just under 10 minutes remaining. Air Force outrebounded the Buffs, but all of those achievements are nothing more than Pyrrhic considering it was the Falcons' second straight loss at home and sixth in the last seven games overall. But, I feel the third time will be the charm Thursday in Colorado Springs. What is it with these bad Big West teams? Yesterday's 10* College Hoops play saw me fade Cal State Northridge and today I'll do the same w/ Cal Davis. Lay the points.

Cal Davis snapped its own four-game losing skid last Saturday, but that came at the expense of William Jessup. The Aggies actually burned me by covering last week at North Dakota State, a game where they were getting 10 points. I'm not so sure that the difference between N Dakota State and Air Force is as great as the oddsmakers are making it out to be here. Note that the entirety of Cal Davis' losing streak came away from home, either in a neutral site game (1) or "true" road games (3). I did successfully play against them in a 25-point loss at Cal on December 10th. Save for Cal, it's been a pretty weak schedule for the Aggies to this point. 

These teams have exchanged upset victories each of the last two seasons. In 2014, it was Cal Davis coming here to Colorado Springs and winning outright as 6.5-point pups, 81-75.  The AFA returned the favor last season by winning 67-60 as 4.5-point pups. This year, I say it's time for the favorite to hold serve. Air Force is most certainly the better team here and they're at home. Despite the losing streak, they've arguably been competitive in every game as all but one loss was by single digits. As I continue to harp on, the bottom of the Big West seems to be really bad this year and Air Force is 6-2 ATS its last eight games vs. this conference. I just can't see the Falcons losing a third consecutive home game and the number is small. 10* Air Force

10* BYU (9:00 ET): Wyoming is in a bowl for the first time in the Craig Bohl era (last appearance was 2011 New Mexico Bowl), which admittedly only began three years ago. However, credit the job done by Bohl here as LY's team went just 2-10 straight up. This marks only the fourth time since the '93 Copper Bowl that the Cowboys are playing in a postseason game. They went 8-5 SU this year and made a first-ever appearance in the Mt. West Championship Game, losing it (at home) to San Diego State 27-24 as seven-point dogs. However, the issue I see here is that when you take the Pokes out of Laramie, they simply are not as good. Coming into 2016, they had dropped 16 of 18 games away from home and even w/ this season' resurgence, they went just 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS. Perhaps you're surprised by how big the number is here, but I say "lay it."

In fact, I would have the number closer to two touchdowns here, which is why this grades out as such a strong play. BYU certainly will want to atone for LY's dreadful Las Vegas Bowl performance against rival Utah where they fell way behind early and lost 35-28. While this program regularly participates in bowl games, they haven't won since appearing in this very one (Poinsettia) back in 2012 against San Diego State. Kalani Sitake replaced Bronco Mendenhall (left for Virginia) at the helm this year and led the Cougars to an 8-4 SU record where all four losses were by a FG or less. Three of those losses came in September, to Utah, UCLA and West Virginia, but after that the team rallied for a 7-1 SU finish w/ the one loss coming at Boise State by a single points. This is a team that beat Toledo, Michigan State and Mississippi State. They also closed the regular season strong w/ four consecutive wins by 17 points or more.

Tanner Mangum will be starting at QB here for BYU as Taysom Hill injured his elbow in the reg season finale. No worries; Mangum has started multiple times in his career here, including a few memorable victories last season. You really have to worry about a leaky Wyoming defense, which permits 34.8 PPG and that number jumps to 42.5 PPG away from home! Their last two away games, the Cowboys have allowed 56 and 69 points and they were actually favored in both instances. I project a big game here for BYU RB Jamaal Williams, who ran for nearly 1200 yds in the reg season despite missing three games. The Cougars also have a big edge on defense and on special teams in this matchup. Look for them to beat an old conference foe soundly in this one. 10* BYU

8* Utah (9:05 ET): These teams experienced very different results last night. The Jazz were completely humbled in a 104-74 loss to Golden State. The Kings, paced by 55 points from the enigmatic Boogie Cousins, won a wild one over Portland, 126-121. But let's not allow one night's results to cloud the overall picture of these respective teams. Utah has lost only three times in its last 14 games. Two of those were to Golden State, the other by a single point to Miami. Sacramento, who has yet to post B2B wins this month, is a below average team w/ massive chemistry issues. The Kings have lost SU and failed to cover off their previous six SU wins. The Jazz are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS off a double digit loss this season. Lay the points.

It hardly mattered in the end, but the Jazz did themselves no favors last night by shooting just 35.5% from the floor. Despite coming out of the gate ice cold, they were actually able to hang with the Warriors for a bit, trailing only 19-15 at the end of the first quarter. Utah remains one of the premier defensive teams in the league, especially at home where they give up an average of just 93.5 points per game. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency. Just 11 days ago, they beat Sacramento by 20 here, 104-84 as six-point chalk, limiting them to only 37.8% shooting. My projections say this should be a double-digit line.

Looking at how each team has performed in the second of back to back games also is telling. Sacramento is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the spot while Utah is 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS. The Kings are annually one of the worst defensive teams in the league and a far cry from the Jazz on that end of the floor. To quantify, they rank 24th in efficiency and give up an average of 104.6 PPG. It's safe to say that Cousins won't be scoring 55 points again tonight. The only time in the L13 games that he failed to score at least 20 points was that loss here in Utah 11 days ago. Keep in mind that game saw the Jazz turn the ball over 22 times, leading to 36 Sacramento points, and they still won by 20. Off a season-low in points scored, I expect a major bounce back here from the Jazz at home. 8* Utah

10* Boise State (9:00 ET): This time of year, the faithful on the Boise State campus are typically more concerned with the school's upcoming bowl game. This year, the Broncos' football team will be facing Baylor, next Tuesday, in the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl. But there's also a basketball game taking place on campus tonight and that's against a struggling Cal State Northridge team that is ripe to be routed. I've successfully targeted many of these Big West bottom feeders during this incredible College Hoops run I'm on and one could make the argument that the Matadors are the worst that conference has to offer. They come into tonight only 3-8 SU/2-7 ATS on the season and they've yet to win on the road. Lay the points.

A 100-95 loss to Bethesda on Friday was certainly not a "good look" for Northridge. That's a NCCAA (National Christian College Athletic Association) school for those keeping track. Thus, one could say the Matadors don't have a "prayer" here (heyyyyyy-o!). By the way, that game did not got into overtime. CSN actually allowed 100 pts in regulation to a non D-I school, at home! Bethesda led the entire second half and by as many as 10 at one point. It would be one thing if the Matadors had been playing well previously, but they had not. Two of their three wins this year came in games where they were favored and those wins were both by three points or less. (The other was against a non DI school). So calling for a "bounce back" in this situation seems fruitless. 

Boise State made a strong accounting for itself its last time out, waxing Idaho State 82-59 as 15.5-pt chalk. Ironically, Idaho State is also one of the three teams that Cal State Northridge beat this year. But the Matadors won by only three over the Bengals. Boise State has beaten SMU, a good team, on this floor. They've also gone to Oregon, a top 20 team, and lost by only five. In eight of their 10 games, the Broncos have had the lead at halftime. This is a strong home team as well w/ a 41-1 SU run vs. non-conference foes. Overall, they are 59-8 SU L67 home games. Three-point defense is huge for the Broncos as opponents are only making 4.5 per game against them at a 29% clip. In other words, this is a total mismatch and I look for BSU to end its non-conference slate on a high note. Cal State Northridge may also again be w/o Aaron Parks (undisclosed), who is one of their four double digits scorers. That would really hurt a team w/ little depth. 10* Boise State

10* Washington (8:05 ET): As stated here before many times, the Metropolitan is shaping up to be one of the fiercest division battles we have seen in some time. Five teams are separated by only six points, but not only that; those five teams are among the top 10 point totals in the entire league. Surprisingly, Washington (last year's President's Trophy winner) is the team that finds itself in fifth. Two of the teams ahead of them, Pittsburgh and Columbus, haven't been beaten in regulation in their L10 games apiece. The Rangers have been arguably the most consistently good team all year. Then, you have Philadelphia, who at one point was riding a 10-game win streak of its own, but has since dropped two straight. The difference between the Caps and Flyers is just a point and I'm predicting after tonight it will be the former ahead in the standings.

Not to be outdone, Washington had won six straight before losing at home to Montreal on Saturday, 2-1. There is no denying, however, that this remains one of the top teams in the league. They have a better YTD goal differential than does Philly and the primary reason they currently have one fewer points is that they've played four fewer games. Goaltending is solid here w/ Braden Holtby checking in w/ a .930 save percentage this season on the road. So too is the power play, which has registered a goal in 11 of the past 15 games w/ at least nine different players scoring. At the same time, we've seen a decline in the Flyers' power play, which has gone 0 for its last 11.

Holtby is a major reason why the Caps rank 3rd in the league in goals allowed. Meanwhile, the Flyers are just 23rd in that department despite not allowing a ton of shots on a per game basis. Likely starter Steve Mason has an .864 save percentage in three division contests so far, not a good sign. This will be the first meeting of these two teams since LY's playoffs when Washington ousted Philly in six games. They are still the better team and will show it tonight. They come in on extended rest and the Flyers have scored just one goal in three of their last four games. 10* Washington

8* Oregon (11:00 ET): Oregon, now ranked #20 in the polls (fair ranking), has lost only two times all year. One of those came in their lone "true" road game, at Baylor, all the way back on November 15th. The other came six days later vs. Georgetown in Maui, a game they fell way behind early, only to have a furious second half rally come up just shy. There should be no need for a rally Tuesday evening in Eugene as Fresno State comes to campus. Given what we've seen from the Ducks thus far, I have every reason to believe that this will end up being another blowout adding to their already impressive average margin of victory (+24.6 PPG) here at home. Fresno State, playing its second road game in four days, is off a tough two-point win over Pacific. I question what the Bulldogs have left in the tank here. Lay the points.

Having covered that last game (barely) as 1.5-point favorites, FSU is now 4-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS overall. But the competition hasn't been all that impressive and they've actually lost a pair of non-lined games to Prairie View A&M and Cal State Bakersfield. Prairie View A&M is among the worst teams in the entire country and the CS-Bakersfield game was on the road. Since then the Bulldogs have won six of seven, the only loss coming by three at Marquette, but this will be their toughest foe yet. That game on Saturday vs. Pacific saw the Bulldogs nail a pair of free throws in the closing seconds as they erased what had been a five-point deficit w/ just 1:15 to go.

Oregon comes into tonight riding a 32-game home win streak, which is third longest in the nation. They are currently w/o leading scorer Chris Boucher, but Jordan Bell more than picked up the slack w/ 16 pts and 12 rebounds in the 20-point win over UNLV (which took place in Portland) Saturday night. Remember, this Ducks team not only won the Pac 12 last year, they reached the Elite 8. Fresno State has NEVER won in Eugene and has not beaten a Top 25 squad since 2002. Should be an easy one for the Ducks. 8* Oregon

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers lost on Sunday afternoon, at Washington, 117-110 as a 5.5-point favorite. I've said it many times before, but those random non-nationally televised Sunday afternoon games sure seem to always favor the home team, don't they. For the Clips, that outright loss capped an 0-3 ATS trek through the Southeast. Previously, they had failed to cover in wins over Orlando and Miami. The fact that it was their third road game in five nights also helps explain why the team lost outright in D.C. But Tuesday night, they're back home and playing a team that is w/o rest, that being Denver. I see this as being a "get well game" for Los Angeles, who should roll to victory despite not having Blake Griffin. Lay the points.

Denver got me last night, beating Dallas 117-107 and just covering the 8.5-point spread. It was a game they trailed early, by as many as 12. I still stand behind the play, but let's remember that Dallas is among the worst teams in the league. The Clippers are among the very best. The entirety of the Nuggets' current three-game win streak came at home against below average opponents. Their last road trip not only saw them lose at Dallas, but go 2-4 SU overall w/ one of the wins coming at Philadelphia's expense. This is a very bad team defensively (26th in efficiency) and they are not going to shoot 57% from the floor again, like they did last night vs. Dallas.

The Clippers started the season on an other-worldly pace in defensive efficiency, but have since regressed some to 5th place overall. Still, that's a good ranking to have. They also rank fifth in offensive efficiency, making them the only team besides Golden State to rank in the top five at both ends of the floor. Here at home, they are outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game. I would certainly have them as a double-digit fave for this one. Anything less is a bargain in my estimation as the Nuggets are bound to give up a ton of points in this one. 10* LA Clippers

8* Over Nuggets/Clippers (10:35 ET): Recent Denver games have not lacked for scoring. In fact, each of the last three (they've won all of them) have seen a MINIMUM of 224 total points scored. The lowest scoring one was last night's 117-107 victory over Dallas where they shot a blistering 57% from the floor, but also allowed 53.1% shooting by the Mavericks. I don't think for a second that Denver will be able to match last night's offensive output, but from a totals perspective, that will be counteracted by the fact they figure to give up far more points tonight to the Clippers. Remember that Dallas is near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency. The Clippers are top five. Therefore, I expect them to shred an unrested Nuggets defense and score a boatload of points in the process. That will lead to this game going Over the total.

Like the Nuggets, the Clippers have seen an abundance of high scoring affairs recently as well. Sunday's loss to the Wizards was a 117-110 final. There has been only one game all month where they failed to score at least 100 points and that was a loss to Golden State where they finished w/ 98. Over the last five games, they are averaging 115.8 PPG on nearly 50% shooting from the floor. There's no Blake Griffin for the time being, but I still anticipate the points to keep coming. Defensively though, there is a concern as they just allowed the Wizards to shoot 80% percent (!) from the floor in the fourth quarter on Sunday. There has definitely been some "slippage" at the end of the floor since starting the year #1 in defensive efficiency.

Six of the last seven times these teams have met, the Under has cashed (includes one push). But none of those meetings took place this season. Note that Denver did not shoot the ball well in any of the three head to head meetings last year, making less than 40% of their field goal attempts every time. They were particularly brutal from three-point range. Also, free throw shooting numbers were pretty ugly for both sides in those three meetings. We should see better percentages tonight and an Over to boot. Over is 13-2 when Clips are facing a team w/ a losing record & 8-1 when Nuggets are facing a team w/ a winning record. 8* Over Nuggets/Clippers

8* Florida (7:35 ET): Last year, the Panthers won the Atlantic Division w/ 103 points. It was just their second playoff appearance since 2000. Yet for some ungodly reason, a decision was made to shake up the organization as both the coach and GM from last season are no longer around. Since Tom Rowe took over behind the bench on 11.27, it's hard to say things have gotten much better. The team has lost 8 of 11 overall, though they are off a win at Colorado all the way back on Friday. There are reasons for the Panthers' struggles thus far, namely injuries and the fact they've played a league-high 19 road games. Tonight, they're back at home and facing another lowly foe, that being Buffalo, who is lower in the Atlantic Division standings than Florida.

While they've lost 13 of those 19 road games so far, the Panthers are a solid 8-5 SU on home ice. The last time here, they beat Vancouver, 4-2. So, a pattern is emerging in that we find Florida routinely beating the "bad" teams on the schedule. I also like the amount of rest that the Panthers have gotten to enjoy coming into this game. This will be just the second time all season that they've had at least three days off between games. They won the first, beating a very good Columbus team (here at home) in a shootout. Having all that time off was necessary after completing a three-game trip out West. In fact, 9 of the Panthers' last 11 games have been on the road.

Buffalo, on the other hand, has played the majority of its games at home this month. In fact this will be just the third road game in December. They've lost the previous two, including 2-1 at Carolina on Saturday. This is a team that ranks 28th in goals scored per game and 30th (i.e. last) in penalty killing. So they definitely have their issues. Furthermore, they are giving up the fifth highest number of shots per game in the league. Florida comes in averaging 33.5 shots per game at home and ironically had outshot their previous three opponents before the Colorado game, twice putting 40+ on net. I'll still put my faith in Panthers' goalie Roberto Luongo, who has a .928 save percentage at home this year. 8* Florida

10* Under Islanders/Bruins (7:05 ET): The Metropolitan is shaping up as the toughest division in the sport this season and somewhat surprisingly, the Islanders are not a contributing factor in that. In fact, the Isles are currently in LAST place w/ only 28 points, which is an Eastern Conference low. Remember, this was a playoff team each of the last two years. They'll arrive in Boston tonight on a five-game losing streak, having given up a TON of goals in the process (24!). But Bruins goaltender Tuukka Rask should help ensure that they don't score many in this contest and I also can't fathom the goaltending continuing to be as bad on the Isles' side of things either. Therefore, I'm taking the Under.

This is the first meeting of these two teams in 2016-17, but Boston has taken five of six the previous two seasons. The B's had been experiencing their own goaltending issues of late, especially in a 1-3-2 stretch where they allowed four goals in all five losses. But the defense stepped up big time in Sunday's 1-0 win over the Kings, allowing only 18 shots, and Rask provided a shutout. This group has the makeup of an Under team as they are 27th in goals scored, but 8th in goals allowed. Even special teams reflect that nature as they're 28th on the power play, but 3rd in penalty killing. Therefore, it should not come as any surprise to find that the Under has gone 17-12-4 in all Bruins' games this season. Rask has a .932 save percentage this season, which is sixth best in the league. 

Boston typically does a good job at limiting shot attempts, allowing just 27.1 per game for the year. The same cannot be said for the Islanders, but as I just mentioned, the Bruins are offensively challenged. The B's are also currently playing w/o leading scorer David Pastrnak, making matters even more difficult. Also, in two-thirds of their games (22 of 33), the Bruins have scored two or fewer goals. Those factors should result in a strong night for whomever is in goal for the Islanders here. For the record, it appears as if it will be Thomas Greiss, who has been their strongest option so far. Both teams' power plays are really bad as the Isles are 1 for their last 12. The Bruins are 10-2 Under vs. teams w/ losing records. 10* Under Islanders/Bruins

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): Very little has gone right for James Madison so far this season. Case in point, they couldn't even manage a cover (as underdogs) against Appalachian State on Saturday despite the game going into OT. The Dukes were outscored 14-2 in the extra period, thereby ensuring they would NOT cover the 3.5-point spread. While close throughout, JMU led at the half and was up three w/ just six seconds remaining in regulation. So they were actually outscored 17-2 over the final 5:06. The loss leaves the Dukes at a rather ugly 1-9 SU this season as well as 1-7 ATS. The lone cover came at old CAA rival George Mason back on 11.26 while the lone SU win came at the expense of non-board team Longwood on 12.3

That all being said, I see some value on the Dukes in this spot as they get set to host Richmond. Obviously, they should feel somewhat "robbed" of the cover their last time out. Not only that, but this team has lost four other games by seven points or less, so it's not as if they're being routinely blown out. They also get to return home for the 1st time since 11.23. That's nearly a full month, if you're keeping score at home. This team has played just three home games thus far and while I faded them in an ugly loss to Rice early in the year, we've now come full circle. They're now hosting a team that they've beaten outright each of the last two seasons!

I'm not sure that Richmond deserves to be favored on the road, even against a 1-9 opponent. The Spiders are also in off a loss, theirs coming at home to Texas Tech. That will be a tough loss to get over as TT is a good team and Richmond had the lead at half. But they were down by as many as 17 in the second half before rallying. Also, there was a scary situation with freshman Grant Golden collapsing on the bench. Now playing as a road favorite for the 1st time in 2016, this is a tough spot for the Spiders. They are just 1-2 ATS as favorites so far this season, including an outright loss to another old CAA rival of JMU's, that being Old Dominion. The Spiders are just 2-11 ATS in the month of December the L2 years and have lost outright three of the past four times they've been road chalk of 3.5 to 6 pts. 10* James Madison

8* Dallas (9:05 ET): For the most part, it has been a miserable season thus far for the once proud Mavericks. Perhaps Mark Cuban is spending too much time worrying about "Shark Tank," because the roster of his basketball team is the weakest its been since buying the organization. However, while the team is still tied (w/ Philadelphia) for the worst overall record in the league at 7-20 straight up, there have been some positive developments of late. Such as blowing out Sacramento last night, 99-79, for their third win in the last six games. They are 4-2 ATS over that span, including a close loss to Utah in a national TV game Friday night. Here, they drop in class to take on a Denver team that I simply don't believe is worthy of laying this much weight. Take the points.

Since returning home from a six-game trip out East, the Nuggets have responded w/ B2B double digit victories over Portland and New York. Those teams are among the very worst defensively in the entire league. Dallas' issue is on the offensive end where they rank 27th in the league in efficiency. Sure enough, they've held three of the last four opponents to 95 points or less. Denver, meanwhile, is 25th in defensive efficiency and was fortunate that those last two opponents are among the select group below them in that department. In each of the last four games, the Nuggets have given up at least 112 points. None of those games went to overtime. Again, those are not the kind of defensive numbers you'd want to see when laying points in this price range.

One of those four games was a 112-92 loss at Dallas. One could make the argument that it was the Nuggets' worst game of the season. Whatever happened there, I certainly think that the oddsmakers have failed to adjust for this rematch as they basically are saying both teams are the same since then. I believe the Mavs have steadily improved as is evident by last night's performance. Six players scored in double figures and defensively it was season-best effort in terms of points allowed. The Mavs never trailed in the game. I can only assume that like the Wizards, we are seeing a team undervalued due to being in the second of B2B games. 8* Dallas

8* Calgary (9:05 ET): No Canadian teams made the Stanley Cup Playoffs last year, which was quite the embarrassment "North of the Border." Other than Montreal, I cannot guarantee any other will be in the 16-team tournament this year, but Calgary is a team that would like to be in that discussion. It wasn't that long ago that the Flames were actually on top of the Pacific, in fact they were in first place on 12.10 after beating Winnipeg 6-2, a game they got my endorsement (played them). But B2B losses now have them fifth in a division that's all of a sudden pretty tough. Fortunately tonight, they'll play an Arizona team that is in consideration to be called the league's worst.

Whether you call them "Phoenix" or "Arizona," the Coyotes simply are not very good. They fell 4-1 at Minnesota on Saturday afternoon, a game the oddsmakers had them priced as nearly as a 2:1 dog. Interestingly, they came into that game off B2B wins, over Detroit and Toronto. But let's give a proper lay of the land in the desert, shall we? The 'Yotes are dead last in the league in goals per game and 28th (out of 30) in goals allowed. Their power play is 27th and penalty killing is 20th. So there's really nothing this club does well. A big problem here is that no team is allowing more shots per game. After allowing a frightening average of 38.6 the L5 games, they are giving up 35.6 per game for the year!

Calgary has earned a pair of 2-1 victories over Arizona so far this year, one at home and one on the road. Overall, they've taken 8 of the past 12 head to head meetings including four of six here at Gila River Arena. Note that prior to those B2B wins, Arizona had lost seven of eight. Meanwhile, the Flames had won six in a row prior to these B2B losses, which came at the hands of Tampa Bay and Columbus (two good teams), mind you. I expect that the road team will be the one to bounce back Monday night. 8* Calgary

10* Air Force (9:00 ET): These are in-state foes, remember. Colorado has won and covered its last three visits here to Colorado Springs and also beat the AFA last season in Boulder, 81-70, albeit they failed to cash as 15-pt chalk. For this year's matchup, I do not like the setup for the Buffaloes perspective. This will be their second game in three days and while the last one was a "cupcake," only beating Fort Hayes State by 10 points is a bit of a troubling sight. Meanwhile, the Flyboys have been off since December 10th when they lost here at home to Denver. That was their first home loss of the year after starting 6-0 SU, so grabbing the points seems ideal and a nice value. Air Force has lost five of six, but most of the losses have been close.

The AFA has run into some red-hot shooting opponents of late, most notably Denver, who finished the game at a blistering 56.9% from the field.The Pioneers got a career-best effort from Daniel Amigo, who finished w/ 33 points. It was a similar story on 12.7 at Army as the Cadets shot better than 50 percent. But the time off should help shore up the defense and quite frankly Colorado isn't a good shooting team anyway. The Buffs are barely above 40% from the field the L5 games, which cost them games vs. Colorado State and BYU. Earlier, I spoke of the fact that the AFA has played well at home this year. They are averaging 85.6 PPG here and outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game. They are also 8-2 ATS the L10 times taking the court w/ at least seven days rest.

Colorado HC Tad Davis did not mince words concerning his team's performance Saturday, the second half in particular, despite coming out on the winning end. "This team has two things going for it right now," Boyle said. "Number one, they own the most-disappointing loss in that seven-year span, the Colorado State game a few weeks ago. And now they also can add to that, that they own the most-disappointing win." Beating a D-II school by only 10 pts at home, following a long break, is certainly not a "good look." Yes, CU led by as many as 21 in the first half. But they barely outrebounded Fort Hayes State and allowed a player (Rob Davis) to score 29 pts after halftime.  The Buffs are just 7-19 SU in "true" road games the L3 seasons. 10* Air Force

10* Under Panthers/Redskins (8:30 ET): Washington, thanks to an efficient offense and somewhat leaky defense, has turned into one of the most reliable teams for Over bettors in the entire league. Sure enough, dating back to LY's stretch run when they won four straight to win the NFC East, the Over is now a ridiculous 16-2 the L18 games! That includes an 11-2 mark this season with each of the last six games going that way! So, it would seem only natural to play this Monday night matchup with Carolina accordingly, right? Not so fast. This will be only the third time this year that the O/U line has cracked the 50-point barrier for the 'Skins and one of the previous two saw an Under cash. The Under would have been 2 for 2 on 50+ pt totals, but the team scored a late TD in garbage time against Dallas on Thanksgiving.

Carolina was an obvious call to regress in 2016, but the regression that has taken hold has been far more severe than even the greatest pessimist could have anticipated. Last year's NFC Champs currently sit at 5-8 and let's face it; the playoffs are only a pipe dream. One thing that I always found interesting about LY's team is that while it ranked #1 in the league in scoring (31.3 points per game), they were just outside the top 10 (11th) in yards per game. When a team rates so highly in # of yards per point (and Panthers were #1 in that dept LY), regression is all but inevitable the following year. Sure enough, Cam Newton and company have dipped down to a scoring average of 23.9 PPG this year. Last week was more reminiscent of 2015 as they scored 28 points despite gaining only 272 total yards. That was thanks to five Chargers turnovers.

Of course, the week prior was a disaster for Carolina as they were held to seven points on a near identical yardage total (271!) in a humiliating primetime loss at Seattle. Washington's defense may not be anywhere near as good as Seattle's, but they have allowed fewer than 300 total yds in B2B weeks. As for the Panthers defense, it would definitely be better if LB Luke Keuchly takes the field for the first time in four games. It's unclear if he will as of press time, but regardless, I expect Carolina not to "roll over" here. With temperatures expected to be chilly, expect the scoring to be lower than expected. 10* Under Panthers/Redskins

8* Detroit (8:05 ET): Something I failed to mention in the Washington-Indiana analysis is just how log-jammed the Eastern Conference is at the present time. After Cleveland and Toronto, there are nine teams separated by just 2.5 games in the standings, all but one (15-12 Boston) within two games over .500 either way. Like Washington & Indiana, count Detroit & Chicago among that group. The two Central Division rivals meet Monday night in the Second City and despite the fact both teams appear to be on a downward trajectory, I favor the Pistons in this one. They have lost B2B games as favorites, ironically to Washington and Indiana, but have typically shown a strong propensity to bounce back from such defeats, going 24-9 ATS when off an outright loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. The Bulls have lost three in a row straight up and are just 1-7 ATS the L8 games. Take the points.

I have to admit that Chicago's strong play at the outset of the season really surprised me. I did not like the offseason that they had and though the Dwyane Wade signing was completely overrated as it did not really "fit" the roster. Early on, offensive efficiency was shockingly good, but the team has since regressed in that department, hitting a new low in Friday's 95-69 home loss to Milwaukee. In that game, the team shot a dismal 30.4% from the floor. Obviously, it is highly unlikely that they'll be that bad again, but to what degree do they improve? There are major questions surrounding HC Fred Hoiberg's tenure here as it's looking more and more like he was a lousy choice to succeed Tom Thibodeau.

Meanwhile, I have far more faith in Pistons' HC Stan Van Gundy to right his ship. Remember, I had this team in a road win over Dallas last Wednesday. Since then, they've lost B2B games by double digits. That prompted the dreaded "players only meeting," but unlike in Chicago, I do not feel there is any kind of serious disconnect between the players and the coach. Detroit beat Chicago earlier this year, 102-91 (at home) as 5.5-pt favorites. Not sure why there would be any kind of positive adjustment by the linesmakers for the Bulls here, given that they are playing worse now. 8* Detroit

8* Washington (7:05 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, the Wizards were my pick to win the Southeast Division prior to the start of the year (expected a tight battle between them and Charlotte). But the season got off to an awful start for the Wiz, leaving myself (and many others I'm sure!) to re-evaluate just where this team stood. Well, all of a sudden, they're starting to play well as is evident by three consecutive SU wins, all as underdogs. Yesterday, they beat the Clippers at home, 117-110, not needing the +5.5 the linesmakers were giving them. They are now 5-1 SU/ATS L6 and I can only assume it is the fact they are playing the second of back to back games that they are getting this many points against the Pacers. Because I have the Wizards rated as the better team here. Take the points.

Indiana is also off an upset win, theirs coming back on Saturday when they went to Detroit and beat the Pistons, 105-90 as 4.5-pt dogs. That win enabled them to avoid what would have been a winless road trip as they'd previously dropped games at Miami and New Orleans. Indiana is another team I'd classify as an "early season disappointment," far more so than Washington at this point. One thing I'd like to point out is that the Pacers shouldn't go into this game thinking they'll be dealing w/ another cold-shooting opponent. The Pistons shot just 38.1% against them on Saturday, but the Wizards have shot better than 50% in every game during the three-game win streak. Bradley Beal scored 41 points yesterday. 

In evaluating these teams, they grade out as remarkably similar w/ the Wiz just slightly better. So, again, I think the road team is being undervalued due to being in the second of B2B road games. Admittedly, it's a role that hasn't treated them well thus far in 2016, but note that Indiana is 0-4 both SU and ATS coming off a SU dog win this season. It would seem that the game taking place at Bankers Life Fieldhouse would favor the Pacers given that they are 10-4 SU at home and the Wizards are 2-8 SU on the road. But the road team won all three head to head meetings last year. In a battle this even, taking the points is the way to go, especially w/ the hotter team. 8* Washington

8* Central Michigan (2:30 ET): Central Michigan has not won a Bowl Game since 2012, the Little Caesar's over Western Kentucky, 24-21 as six-point underdogs. Two years later, they had a rematch in the Bahamas w/ WKU, which featured one of the wildest finishes in bowl history, and lost 49-48 as three-point dogs. Last year, they drew a tough assignment in the Quick Lane Bowl against Minnesota and lost 21-14, failing to cover as four-point dogs. That, coupled w/ the fact this team did not end the regular season well, should have them supremely motivated here in the Miami Beach Bowl vs. Tulsa. Sure, the Golden Hurricane are looking for their first bowl win since 2012 as well. But, it's difficult to like them as DD favorites in this spot. Take the points.

It's easy to forget now, but at one point Central Michigan stood at 3-0 SU (w/ a win at Oklahoma State) and found itself favored playing on the road against a Power 5 school (Virginia). From that point on, the Chippewas finished just 2-7 ATS at the pay window and lost a couple of "toss up" games outright. The most embarrassing was a 27-21 defeat in Mt. Pleasant at the hands of Kent State, who came in as a 12-pt dog. There were also two times that the Chips closed as one-point road favorites (at Miami, E Michigan) only to lose. Both of those teams seemed to have a bit of "lady luck" riding on their shoulders though. Yes, I know the early season win over Oklahoma State was controversial, but regardless that's still a Top 25 team they were competitive against. This is a senior-laden team that will have a bad taste in its mouth from the way the reg season ended. "We want to win, get a bowl ring, hold a trophy -- something we haven't been able to do," senior quarterback Cooper Rush said. "It's definitely on our mind." The only game CMU was getting more points than they are here was the Oklahoma State game.

Both head coaches here are in the second year w/ their respective programs. For Philip Montgomery and Tulsa, there was major improvement this season. Last year, they were double digit underdogs against a clearly overvalued Va Tech side that was playing in Frank Beamer's swan song. It was a wild 55-52 loss in the Independence Bowl and that surprisingly strong showing bled over into a 9-3 SU campaign in 2016. The Golden Hurricane do have the #6 offense nationally in terms of yardage and have a chance to finish w/ a 3,000 yd QB, two 1,000 yd RBs and two 1,000 yd WR's. But I suspect those gaudy stats are what have led them to be the overvalued side in this year's bowl. Sure, the Golden Hurricane's only three losses came to Ohio State, Houston and Navy. But they didn't really beat anyone of substance either. They were just 3-3 SU on the road (as opposed to 6-0 SU at home). Honestly, I see a Central Michigan outright win as a more likely result than a Tulsa blowout win. 8* Central Michigan

6* NY Rangers (7:35 ET): The Metro is absolutely stacked right now with five teams separated by just four points at the top. One of those five is NOT the Devils, however, as they instead reside next to the basement w/ only 30 points. It figures to be some tough sledding tonight in MSG as they face the Rangers, who happen to be my top ranked team in the league. Making matters worse for New Jersey is they arrive in poor form w/ five straight losses. Only four teams have fewer points and there's a definite reason why the ML is so high here. Don't be afraid to lay the juice.

The Devils are just 26th in the league in scoring and figure to have their hands full w/ whomever they face in goal tonight. Obviously, from our perspective, it would be ideal to have Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes. He turned in another patented performance last night w/ 30 saves in a victory over Nashville that went to a shootout. The game before that, it was a 27 save shutout against the Dallas Stars. But the three games before that, it was backup Antti Raanta allowing just two goals total w/ a pair of shutouts. So with only four goals allowed in the last six games and ranking third for the year in goals allowed, the Rangers figure to be quite stingy again here.

The Devils also played last night, only they lost, 3-1 at Ottawa. It was their fifth consecutive defeat and they've been outscored 22-6. Even the usually reliable Corey Schnieder has not been immune from poor play. His save percentage over the L4 starts is just .881 and he's in danger of dropping below .900 for the year. He's at .897 for the year on the road. On the road this season, the team is being outscored by 1.7 goals per game and has lost 15 of 19. By the way, the Rangers are a perfect 5-0 SU in the second game of a back to back this year and just beat the Devils here last Sunday, 5-0 w/ a 31-19 edge in shots on goal. This is a complete mismatch. 6* NY Rangers

10* Denver (4:25 ET): For the third time in the last two seasons, New England will visit Mile High as a favorite. They lost outright both times in 2015, the most notable being the AFC Championship Game. Given the current respective trajectories, however, it would appear as if only the Pats have a realistic shot at getting back to that game. The Broncos come in off their second loss by a field goal in the last three weeks and are fighting for their playoff lives. New England, on the other hand, seems likely to once again be the top seed heading into the postseason. This is a short week for Brady, Belichick and company, so considering that and the sense of desperation that exists here for Denver, I'll take the points.

The Broncos were carried by their defense en route to last year's Super Bowl win and that unit has essentially remained just as strong in 2016. Particularly against the pass, where they are #1 in the league, allowing less than 200 YPG. Last week, they held Marcus Mariota below 100 yds through the air, but still lost due to their own offensive ineptitude. Incredibly, they ran for 18 yards on only nine carries. But the bulk of the criticism still falls on QB Trevor Siemian, who has failed to even live up to the low standard set by Peyton Manning last year. Given the fact that New England ranks #3 in scoring defense (17.6 PPG allowed), you might conclude that Siemian is likely to struggle again, but that number of points allowed is somewhat misleading considering the Patriots are 10th in yardage allowed. They've benefited from facing a number of terrible QB's this year, but Joe Flacco threw for 300+ yds against the Monday night.

Given their strength resides in defending the pass, rather than the run, I feel the Broncos defense matches up pretty well w/ the Patriots offense. The majority of the games where New England has put up substantial rushing totals, it's been due to building a big lead. I certainly do not envision that scenario playing out this week. Also important to note is that under HC Gary Kubiak, the Broncos are 8-2-1 ATS as dogs w/ eight outright wins. That includes a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home. Tom Brady is just 2-7 SU/ATS all-time here in Denver. 10* Denver

10* San Diego (4:25 ET): Oakland has undergone quite the transformation this year as they are most definitely a "public" team, never more so than this week where we find them laying a short number on the road against San Diego. But despite what the records say here, these teams are pretty even w/ the home dog actually the better team in some respects! The reason for the gap between the Raiders and Chargers in the AFC West standings has as much to do w/ luck as anything else as the former has had it in spades throughout 2016 while the latter has had basically none. With the expectation that Oakland, off a 10-day break, is likely to simply "bounce back" from only it's third loss of the season, I'll fade the public and take the points.

In addition to leading the league in turnover margin (+15), Oakland has enjoyed a tremendous amount of "luck" in close games w/ a 7-2 record in one-score games (decided by 8 pts or less). One of those losses occurred last Thursday night when for a second time this year, they fell to the Chiefs, this time 21-13. Besides Kansas City, the only other team to beat the Raiders this year is Atlanta and that came all the way back in Week 2. As impressive as that may sound, the Silver and Black are just 20th in the league in yards per game differential, having actually been outgained over the course of the season. That ranking is actually below San Diego, who has outgained its opponents. Though the franchise has clearly taken a step in the right direction under HC Jack Del Rio, seeing them as a road favorite is still pretty rare. 

Meanwhile, San Diego has the most one-score losses of any team in the league over the last two seasons (9). One of those took place in Oakland back in Week 5 when they blew a second half lead and lost 34-31. I was fortunate enough to have the Chargers +3.5, but a botched FG attempt at the end of the game essentially set the tone for this very disappointing season, which has seen almost unprecedented injury misfortune and many games where the team has blown a lead in the second half. Last week at Carolina actually marked the first game all year where SD did not hold a lead at any point in the game! Not only that, they've had a second half lead in every one of those games before LW. The underdog in this AFC West rivalry is an incredible 14-1 ATS the L15 meetings! 10* San Diego

10* Tennessee (4:00 ET): It's no secret that I've been targeting the rapidly dwindling number of unbeaten teams left in the country. That number is still six after Saturday, though the weakest of the bunch (USC) got a major scare from 22-point underdog Troy (who I was on) as did UCLA and Creighton. Aside from defending National Champion Villanova, I don't believe any of the other unbeatens are among the very best in the nation, though everyone except USC belongs in the top 25. One of those teams is Gonzaga, who takes the court for the first time in eight days. The Zags have yet to play a "true" road game and while this one isn't on Tennessee's campus, you still have to figure it will be quite the partisan crowd in Nashville at the Bridgestone Arena (home of the NHL's Predators). I'm taking the points. 

Though Gonzaga arrives here at 10-0 SU and off three consecutive covers, they have had some close calls thus far. Three times they've won by seven points or less, against Iowa State, Florida and Arizona. Those games were all contested at far more "neutral" sites than this one. Last time we saw them, they drubbed poor Akron 61-43, a game where the Zips shot a miserable 26.7% from the field. It was a similar story for Gonzaga's previous opponent, Washington, who was held to 30.4%. Fortunately for our sake, Tennessee comes in shooting 46.9% for the year. They've been above 45% in each of the L6 games, four times making more than they missed.

At the same time, the Vols have done an excellent job defending, the three-point line in particular. None of their L5 opponents have shot 45% from the field and for the year teams are shooting below 30% from behind the arc against them. Tennessee is no stranger to playing elite teams this year as this will be the fourth Top 20 foe that they've faced. They're a perfect 3-0 ATS against Oregon, Wisconsin and North Carolina and actually led the Tar Heels for much of the second half, in Chapel Hill, last Saturday. While Gonzaga's been off, the Vols have played twice this week, blowing out both Tennessee Tech and Lipscomb. This is a revenge spot as well from an eight-point loss in Seattle last year. 10* Tennessee

10* Chicago (1:00 ET): Expect the public to be back on the Packers' bandwagon here after GB thrashed Seattle LW, 38-10, a rare instance of Aaron Rodgers being a home dog. It was the Pack's third consecutive win and cover as they're now back in the playoff hunt at 7-6 overall. But as impressive as that final score may have looked last week, Rodgers and company were clearly aided by a +6 turnover margin as they were actually slightly outgained (354-330) in the contest. Weather is expected to be a major factor in NFL Wk 15, nowhere more so than here in Chicago where temperatures are expected to be below zero. That's not good news for the calf injury Rodgers is currently dealing with and I look for the Packers to struggle here. Take the points.

Chicago is 3-10 SU and starting Matt Barkley at QB. Yet, this is by no means a terrible team. In fact, I'm going on the record right now and guaranteeing they will be one of the most improved teams in 2017. As for what they've done so far this season, note they are actually outgaining opponents by an average of 17.7 YPG, which is the 10th best such differential in the league. It's actually better than Green Bay, who is "only" +10.2. In terms of yards per play differential, the Bears are actually fifth in the league, a far cry from GB's #21 ranking. Barkley has actually done a pretty remarkable job in relief of the injured Jay Cutler and will be getting All-Pro WR Alshon Jeffery back from a four-game suspension this week. If anything, Barkley's numbers should be better as he's gotten burned by multiple dropped passes. The defense is now #7 in the league in yards per game allowed. Overall, the team is on a four-game ATS win streak. 

Recent history has seen the Packers dominate this long-standing division rivalry w/ wins in 13 of the past 16 games including six straight here at Soldier Field. But the Bears have been better at home this year (2-0 vs. NFC North) and Green Bay is only 2-4 SU on the road. Rodgers has reportedly missed practice time due to the calf injury. Historically, he has not performed as well in cold conditions and this may be the coldest game in his career. Typically, the adverse conditions should enable the underdog to keep the game close. Note that when these teams met at Lambeau Field back in October, the line was only Pack -7. It appears as if there's been an overadjustment due to Green Bay's recent form, last week specifically. 10* Chicago

8* Troy (10:30 ET): With two weeks to go in the calendar year, six unbeaten teams remain in College Basketball. One of them, USC, is significantly worse than the rest. (Admittedly, Villanova is also appreciably better than the other four). Therefore, I'll fade the Trojans here against an opponent of their same namesake. Though part of the Las Vegas Classic, note this is still a home game for USC, who has now cracked the top 25 in the AP Poll. But they still haven't cracked my own top 25, nor are they that close to doing so. (Top 35 is more appropriate). Despite missing Bennie Boatright, they still haven't been tested recently, but I'll call for that to change in this late Saturday night start. Charles Buggs is also listed as questionable here w/ a hamstring injury.

Troy has taken advantage of a pretty light schedule here in December in rolling to three consecutive victories over non-lined foes. Last time out, these Trojans blew out Point University 114-52, the second time they've topped 100 pts against a non-DI foe this year. Scoring has dipped rather dramatically when they take their act out on the road, but this is still a big pointspread for a team that has lost by more than 12 pts only one time this year. A 1-5 ATS record has just as much to do w/ this spread as does USC's surprising start and as we so often see, this confluence has led to an overreaction by the marketplace. In my estimation, this spread should be several points lower.

Boatright was considered to be one of the best power forwards in the nation, so his loss is significant. Buggs is not really a major contributor, but his potential absence still thins the roster. Granted, USC had no trouble w/ Pepperdine on Sunday (won 93-67), their only game in the last two weeks. But I can't see a duplication of their red-hot shooting from that game (56.6%!), nor is Troy likely to shoot the ball as poorly as Pepper

8* Southern Miss (9:00 ET): The prevailing storyline here is likely to be LA Lafayette's 4-0 SU and ATS record in New Orleans Bowls, having previously appeared in this game every year from 2011-14. After a one-year hiatus (went 4-8 SU LY and thus were not bowl eligible), the Ragin Cajuns will again conclude their season in the Superdome. The opponent this time is an old foe, Southern Miss, who holds a 38-11-1 all-time record in head-to-head matchups. That includes an eight-game win streak from 1993 to 2008 (last meeting). While I'm sure the Ragin Cajuns are happy to be back in a bowl game, I like Southern Miss here as they're drawing a much easier assignment compared to LY's bowl matchup where they had to face Washington in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. The Golden Eagles will be motivated to earn their first bowl victory since 2011. Lay the points.

Southern Miss did not have a particularly strong finish to the regular season, at one point failing to cover seven consecutive games. But they gained bowl eligibility w/ a 39-24 upset of C-USA West Champ La Tech (as 15.5-pt dogs!) in the reg season finale. The key to that win and the play here is the presence of QB Nick Mullins, who 1st year HC Jay Hopson called "100 percent" for this game. Despite missing significant time, first w/ a broken thumb and then a concussion, Mullins still threw for 22 TD passes and nearly 3,000 yards. In helping engineer the upset of Louisiana Tech, he threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns. After jumping from three wins in 2014 to nine last year, regression (in terms of record) was inevitable for the Golden Eagles, especially w/ a 1st time HC (Hopson) taking over for Todd Monken (now on Tampa Bay Bucs' staff). But something that absolutely must be considered here is this team outgained every opponent it played this year, save for one (LSU!) and also won at Kentucky 44-35. With Mullins back, this is a totally different team.

Meanwhile, La Lafayette needed a strong close to become bowl eligible and that's what they got w/ three wins in the last four games (4-0 ATS), punctuated by a blowout of rival LA Monroe, 30-3, in the finale. But their only two wins against bowl teams were South Alabama and Arkansas State, both at home by five points. I say USM has a huge edge at QB here w/ Mullins vs. ULL's Anthony Jennings. Over the course of the season, ULL was outscored. Though this game is being played in the state of Louisiana, Southern Miss figures to still have plenty of crowd support present. 8* Southern Miss

10* NY Jets (8:25 ET): To me, this game has "upset" written all over it. Yes, I know the last time they played at home, the Jets completely embarrassed themselves in a 41-10 loss to the Colts. But they bounced back nicely w/ a come from behind win LW, though admittedly it was against the 49ers. I'll still maintain the Jets are better than their record, something I cannot say for Miami, who is only 24th in my own personal power rankings. Last week's 26-23 win over Arizona did not come w/o casualty for the Dolphins as they lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill and are now down to career backup Matt Moore for this all-important encounter. Even worse for the 'Fins is that the weather conditions are expected to be unfavorable Sat night and this is a team that's gone just 1-9 SU on turf the L3 seasons including 0-3 in 2016. Take the points.

What was so odd about that Jets "no-show" two weeks back on MNF is they've largely been a competitive football team this year. They were coming off a near upset of the Patriots at home the week prior and the two weeks before that saw them lose by only four points or less. One was at Miami, 27-23. That was a game they outgained the opposition 331-274, but succumbed to a -2 turnover differential and the GW score was a 96-yard kickoff return w/ just 5:15 remaining, right after the Jets had taken their first lead since the 1st quarter. Typically, the Jets have found success vs. Miami through the years, going 36-16-3 ATS the past 55 meetings!  Something else to consider is that the Dolphins have not swept the season series against the Jets - either SU or ATS - since 2009. New York has covered five of its last six AFC East home games.

The other big thing to consider here is the dropoff from Tannehill to Moore. There's a reason that no team comes knocking on Moore's door to be their starting QB and that's because he's not very good. This will be his first start in five years, the last one ironically coming against the Jets. Yes, Bryce Petty is the starting QB for the Jets, but he appears to have at least developed a rapport w/ rookie Robby Anderson. Despite the very different won-loss records here, the Jets actually own the better differential in terms of yards per game (Miami is an ugly 28th). With subpar metrics and a backup QB, I don't like the idea of Miami laying points on the road at all. That's a role they are not only 0-4 ATS in the last four tries, but 0-4 straight up as well. 10* NY Jets

10* Under Rockets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): This Houston team is red hot right now. They have yet to lose in the month of December, winning nine straight, a streak which began w/ a win over the Warriors. Predictably, the offense has been very efficient under HC Mike D'Antoni as they rank third in the league plus are averaging 122.8 points per game. They just set an NBA record w/ 24 made three-pointers in a 122-100 rout of the Pelicans last night, so Minnesota better be ready to play some defense. The T'wolves are in off a rare win, having upset Chicago 99-94 (rallied from 21 down) in a national TV game earlier in the week. They've had three days off, rare in today's NBA, so they should indeed be ready. I'm thinking Under in this matchup as the total seems too high despite the Rockets exploits.

Minnesota has plenty of young talent, but it has yet to translate into wins, especially here at home where they're only 3-9 SU. They'd lost eight of nine overall before beating the Bulls Tuesday, a game where they allowed only 94 points (fewest in any game this month). It's not like the T'wolves aren't used to facing some of the top offenses in the game, in fact, they've recently taken on the two teams that rank higher the Houston in efficiency, Toronto and Golden State. They did allow an average of 120 PPG in those contests (both losses), but I like the idea that they're more rested coming into this game while the opponent is not. On offense, the team is averaging only 99.6 points its last five games. The two times we've seen a O/U line of 220+ for this team (both times against Golden State), the Under is 2-0.

These teams have met seven times the last two seasons and the Over is a perfect 7-0. But, it's "high time" for things to go the other way. This will likely close as the highest total for any of those past matchups. Houston, playing the second game of a back to back, isn't likely to come anywhere close to last night's awesome three-point production (they attempted 61!). By the way, the Under did cash in last night's game as they held the Pelicans to just 100 points. That was the fifth time in the last six games, the Rockets held their opponent to 100 pts or less. 10* Under Rockets/T'wolves

10* California (8:00 ET): Last Saturday, Cal was my 10* Game of the Week and the Bears treated me well w/ a 86-61 win over UC Irvine. They haven't played since and a week later we find them drawing another overmatched Big West opponent. That would be Cal Poly, who has said "goodbye" to home for the remainder of 2016 as the Mustangs are embarking on a six-game trip which will lead into the start of conference play. Granted, this isn't a long trip, but it's a daunting one given that Cal is now at full strength and looking good. Cal Poly has already lost to one Pac 12 team, Arizona State, by 22 earlier in the year. Cal is a significantly better team than ASU, so lay the points here.

Cal Poly, like Cal, was off all week due to exams. Unlike the Bears, they lost their last game. It was a double-digit defeat at the hands of Fresno State to start this six-game trip. Again, that's a much inferior squad compared to what they'll face here. The Mustangs trailed by as many as 20 points last Saturday and matched their lowest offensive output of the season (59 points) due to some pretty dreadful shooting (19 of 51 from the field). It was the second time in three games that they scored only 59 pts, which is not a good sign here against a Cal team playing excellent defense. Extended rest has never helped the Mustangs in the past as they're just 1-6 ATS the last seven tries taking the court w/ at least five or six days rest. They had been off a whole week prior to playing Fresno State as well.

Cal has allowed more than 65 points in a game just once all season. Here in Berkeley, where they are undefeated (7-0, winning by an avg of 17 PPG), they are holding teams to 59 PPG on 36.7% shooting. So it promises to be a long night for Cal Poly on the offensive end here. This is a big game as Cal can set a new school record w/ a 27th consecutive victory at home!  As I mentioned in my writeup last week, the Bears are now healthier than they've been all season. Having Ivan Raab also helps as the preseason All-American is averaging 14.9 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. But it is freshman Charlie Moore now leading the way w/ 17.6 PPG. The Bears have three double-digit scorers and are a top 16 team nationally in rebounding and points allowed. This shapes up as another mismatch for them at Haas Pavillion. This team will be a threat in the Pac 12 this year. 10* California

8* Washington (7:05 ET): This is a battle of two of the premier teams in the Eastern Conference. Montreal leads the Atlantic w/ 42 points, but has dropped B2B games and is playing on the road, in the second game of a back to back. Washington may only be fourth in the stacked Metropolitan, but they have 41 points and have won six straight. Incredibly, the Metro is home to three teams currently on win streaks of at least six games. Yes, the Caps also played last night, but things (obviously) went better for them as they prevailed in a shootout against Carolina. They've got the home ice advantage here and I'm going to ride the proverbial "hot hand." 

With both teams in the top six in goals allowed, goaltending could very well decide this game. Montreal of course has Carey Price, but he was actually pulled from last night's game after allowing four goals on just 18 shots. It marked the first time that Price had been pulled from a game in over two years! So, he'll probably get the nod again here, but last night's performance is concerning. So too are his career marks vs. the Capitals, which include a 5-9-4 record, 3.08 goals against average and .898 save percentage. Meanwhile, I have little concern here w/ Washington's Braden Holtby, who was given last night off. Holtby's career record vs. the Habs is 8-0-2 w/ an outstanding save percentage of .944 and GAA of 1.60.

One player always worth keeping an eye on is Alex Ovechkin, who has certainly had the Habs number through the years w/ 22 goals and 18 assists in 39 career matchups. Ovechkin scored on the power play last night in Carolina, marking the 13th time in the last 14 games that Washington has scored when having the man advantage. As an aside, the Canadiens' penalty kill only ranks 18th overall and they gave up two PP goals last night. It's tough to score on the Caps here in D.C. (they allow just 1.9 gpg here), primarily b/c they allow only 25.5 shots per game. Montreal gives up a surprising 3.1 gpg on the road where they have a losing record. 8* Washington

10* Under UTSA/New Mexico (2:00 ET): How appropriate that for the second year in a row and fourth time since '07 that the University of New Mexico will take part in the New Mexico Bowl? This year's edition of Lobos football was the strongest yet in HC Bob Davie's five-year tenure, at least record-wise, as they went 8-4 straight up, including a 56-35 thrashing of a good Wyoming team (that admittedly had nothing to play for) in the regular season finale. The opponent here will be 1st time bowler UTSA, a school that has only been full-time at the FBS level for four years. I had success both playing on (at Arizona State) and against (at Rice) the Roadrunners this year as they finished off a 6-6 SU campaign w/ a 33-14 win over Charlotte. Though I think the underdog will be competitive here, I do not believe they will win their 1st ever bowl in what amounts to a "true" road game. Thus, we turn to the total instead.

Perhaps the key record in handicapping this game is that New Mexico went 10-2 Over during the regular season, including a perfect 6-0 in Albuquerque. In fact, the Over cashed in each of the team's first seven games this year. Most of the totals were in this same neighborhood, but even though bowls tend to be high-scoring, I'm going the other way in this one. The key obviously will be how well can UTSA defend the New Mexico' rushing attack, which led the nation at 361 YPG. My guess is "a lot better than Wyoming" as the Pokes simply allowed themselves to be run over to the tune of 568 yds! In the regular season, UTSA wasn't that bad against the run, giving up "only" 158 yards at 4.4 YPC. They are used to seeing run-heavy offenses at this point. The New Mexico offense is not much of a threat to pass.

UTSA's own offensive production dips rather dramatically on the road, down to 22.8 PPG. That's about two touchdowns per game less than what they average at home. As a first time bowler, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Roadrunners start slow here. Getting back to the defense, a big help for the Roadrunners is that they have had a few weeks to prepare for the UNM triple option. Both of these teams like to predominantly run the ball, so as long as the defenses are providing some resistance, then that should lead to the clock continuing to roll and a quicker ballgame. These teams actually met in both 2013 and 2014 and the Under cashed both times. In each instance, the winning side scored just 21 points! I'm not saying this game will be that low-scoring, but the O/U line is still too high. 10* Under UTSA/New Mexico

8* Under Mavericks/Jazz (10:35 ET): When one of the least efficient offenses meets one of the slowest paced teams, the elements for a successful Under bet are definitely present. That's precisely what we have here as Dallas (29th in off efficiency) meets Utah (29th in pace) Friday night in ESPN. Oh by the way, the Mavericks are the one team in the league playing at a slower pace than Utah, so we actually have the two slowest paced teams in the league facing off here! Thus, the number of possessions should be severely limited. The Jazz have also gone Under in three consecutive games thanks to some pretty fantastic defense. Take the Under here.

This Jazz team is quite good. They've won 9 of 11 overall. One of the two losses was to Golden State while the other came by a single point (vs. Miami). They are off B2B 20-pt victories coming into tonight, both of those taking place at home. The first was Sacramento, then Oklahoma City. Those two opponents were limited to 84 and 89 points respectively on 37% shooting. Though tonight's total is lower than either of those games, I can safely project that Utah will not match its shooting from Wednesday night where they blitzed the Thunder to the tune of 58.3% from the floor. I see them having little difficulty keeping the Mavs in check here, considering they already did it earlier in the year (more on that in a bit).

Dallas is not a good team, particularly on the road. I played against the Wednesday as they lost at home to Detroit, 95-85. It was their fifth time being held under 90 points in the last nine games. On the road this year, things have grown real dire as in a 1-11 SU record w/ just 91.1 PPG scored. Utah is allowing just 93.0 PPG at home this year, so again, they'll have little trouble containing the Dallas offense. Overall, Utah ranks #3 in defensive efficiency. As briefly touched upon above, these teams did meet here in Salt Lake earlier this year and the final result was 97-81 Jazz w/ the Mavs shooting a woeful 42.9% from the floor, including 7 of 26 from three-point land. 8* Under Mavericks/Jazz

10* Tampa Bay (10:05 ET): In the Atlantic Division, there's somewhat of a void behind first place Montreal. I expect Tampa Bay to be the team to fill it. Remember three teams from the division will make the playoffs. Through three points back of both Ottawa and Boston currently and still getting over the loss of Steven Stamkos, the Lightning are the only team in the Atlantic besides Montreal to be sporting a positive goal differential (+3). That because they won Wednesday in Calgary (over a red-hot Flames team, pun intended), 6-3. Meanwhile, a positive scoring differential is not a realistic achievement right now for Vancouver, who I rate among the worst teams in the entire league. This is a mismatch.

The Canucks have lost three in a row to fall into last place in the Pacific. This is not all that shocking; prior to the start of the season, most had this pegged to be one of the very worst teams in the league. Only Colorado has fewer points right now and in the last game, the Canucks gave up EIGHT goals to Carolina. That was one of the easiest winning Over bets in recent NHL history as the final score was 8-6. While Vancouver is unlikely to be that leaky defensively again, the likelihood is just as strong (if not stronger) that they'll decline offensively as well. Consider that in the previous loss, they had been shutout 3-0 by Washington. For the year, the Canucks are 28th in the league in goals allowed. 

Consider that Vancouver actually led Carolina 5-2 in the third period before completely melting down. The prospect of them now facing a team that just scored six times in its last game should be pretty frightening if you're a Canucks fan. Obviously, Tampa Bay is going to enjoy a massive edge between the pipes here due to Ben Bishop, whose 9-10-1 record is totally misleading as he's still among the league's best w/ a .924 save percentage and 2.87 goals against average. If the Lightning can be anywhere close to as strong offensive as they were in Calgary, this one - a revenge spot to boot - should be in the bag. Yes, Vancouver's last win (Dec 8) did come at Tampa Bay. But including that result, home ice advantage has meant little when these two teams hook up. The road team has won four straight times. Make it five. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The Eastern Conference pecking order has two clear top teams (Cleveland and Toronto) and a large grouping of contenders below them. These two are part of that large grouping. Currently, Charlotte is in third place despite having lost their last three games. Right behind them (as in one-half game) is Boston, who likewise is on a three-game losing streak. So something will have to give here and while Kemba Walker is injured and unlikely to play, I still see the Hornets staying within the number. This is a revenge spot for the road team, who lost to the Celtics at home early in the year. The road team has enjoyed an unusual amount of success when these teams meet, as in four consecutive SU victories. Thus, I'll take the points.

Charlotte figured to lose the first-game of this current five-game trek as they were in Cleveland. Sure enough, lose they did, 116-105 as eight-point underdogs. But they were favored at both Indiana and Washington, games they also lost SU. As a team, they shot the ball well at Washington (51.4%), but unfortunately the Wizards did the same and there were also an uncharacteristic 18 turnovers from the Hornets. Note that Walker did play in that game, so that was not the reason for the turnovers. Walker is missing this game for a "personal reason" and Ramon Sessions will start in his place. Even w/o Walker, I expect the good shooting from the Washington game to carryover here as the team is still only at 42.2% the L5 games, which is well below their season average.

It's pretty remarkable how even these teams seem to be on paper. Both average exactly 104.3 PPG. Charlotte allows the same number of PPG on the road as Boston does at home (103.7). However, overall, the Hornets are allowing 0.7 PPG less for the year. They also average exactly one point per game more on the road compared to the Celtics at home. Thus, I am left to assume that tonight's larger than expected spread is a byproduct of Walker's absence and Walker's absence alone. It is an overreaction in my estimation and I question what Boston may have left in the tank here after such a difficult stretch of games. 10* Charlotte

10* Miami (FL): These two Floridian schools are both coming off long breaks (exams) and big wins. The last time we saw Miami FL, they were drubbing a clearly overmatched South Carolina State squad, 82-46 (non-lined game). That same day (December 6th), Florida Atlantic pulled of a major upset in beating Ohio State, in Columbus, as 20-pt underdogs. While the Owls have been competitive this year (three losses by four points or less), I feel the upset of OSU has created a situation where they're getting far too much respect from the market here. Miami is a better team than the Buckeyes and thus deserving of a higher price range. Yes, some adjustment must be made for FAU's win, but this would be a classic overadjustment. Lay the points.

Florida Atlantic has played three "true" road games to this point and all have been decided by two points or less! That's two losses (Hawaii & UT Martin) plus the stunner in Columbus. How did the Owls upset the Buckeyes, you ask? Well, first let's point out the game went into overtime. FAU had to rally back from an 11-point second half deficit just to get the extra five minutes of game time and they were clearly aided by a bevy of Buckeyes' turnovers and missed three-pointers. The key to the upset, as it often is in this sport, was beyond the three-point arc where FAU went 10 of 25 and Ohio State was just 4 of 20. Perhaps the long break between games somewhat mitigates the concept of a "letdown" taking place here, but I still think the Owls are drastically overmatched heading into Coral Gables.

The U is not ranked currently, but to me they are on the fringes of the Top 25. (For the record, they are in the "others receiving votes" category). Their only two losses this year have been to Iowa State and Florida, both on a neutral court. Those are both Top 20 teams, IMO, and they were actually favored over ISU (small dog vs. Florida). Those two losses begat a four-game ATS slide, so many may be wary of laying this kind of weight, but note that the 'Canes just missed out on covering similar DD spreads vs. Wofford and Rutgers. Teams are shooting just 36.2% against The U for the season. Meanwhile, The U is shooting 47%. FAU can enjoy the hiring of Lane Kiffin because this game will not go well. 10* Miami FL

10* Under Blazers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): These teams have met twice previously this season w/ the Over cashing both times. But from the Under's "perspective," I believe the third time will be the charm as this is (predictably) the highest O/U line yet. Portland, while there still is much work to be done, seems to have gotten its defense under some control. They just held Oklahoma City to 95 points in a much needed win Tuesday night, at home, on ESPN. As for Denver, they are returning home from a six-game trip that had them out East and lethargy could certainly be a factor in their first game back in the thin air. They scored only 92 pts in an embarrassing loss at Dallas the last time we saw them. Take the Under here.

Though the Over cashed in the November 13th meeting, it's not like either of these two sides shot the ball well when they faced off last. Both were sub 40% from the field, but through sheer volume (58 total attempts), the three-ball was a factor. So too were free throws as they combined for 48 makes from the line. I envision we'll see a decrease there. In Denver's last game, they made only 15 FT's. Portland shot 53.8% from the floor against OKC, but I can't see them matching that percentage here now that they're out on the road. These are two of the top Over teams in the league right now, but this is also among the highest totals either has seen all season.

Denver may have been a disaster defensively in its last game, giving up 65 first half points to Dallas, but there is no way they'll be that bad again here, I guarantee you. There is reportedly a "pretty good" chance that guard Gary Harris will return tonight after missing the last 16 games. Portland will also again be w/o forward Al Farouq-Aminu, who was a late scratch vs. OKC. Something else I'd like to point out is that while the first meeting of the year, played on 10.29 here in Denver, went Over, that was only because of overtime. It was a 104-104 game at the end of regulation. The Under has cashed three of the four times Portland has been off a DD win this season. 10* Under Blazers/Nuggets

9* Under Panthers/Jets (8:05 ET): Florida seems to have taken a significant step back from LY's Atlantic Division winning campaign, not that wasn't to be expected. But even w/ the Division being so weak this year, they're only tied for fifth place w/ 30 points. A big reason for that is they are 26th in the league in goals scored. Having the league's worst ranked power play hasn't helped that figure either. They were held to just one goal by the Wild on Tuesday in the first of this three-game trip out West. Roberto Luongo again struggled in goal, but that's been fairly uncommon for the Panthers' netminder as he still checks in w/ a solid save percentage for the year. This team is #5 on the penalty kill, but despite all these rankings, the Over has somehow found a way to go 13-10-7 in all Florida games. Not tonight though. Take the Under.

Winnipeg didn't not have an enjoyable experience in the province to the West as they came up short against both Calgary and Edmonton over the weekend. I played against them both times. An own-goal cost them Sunday vs. the Oilers in a 3-2 decision. They were just flat out dominated by Calgary the previous night, losing 6-2. Overall, the team has now dropped four in a row and what was supposed to be a breakout year for this team has gone sour in a hurry. Across the board, all ranking are bad, especially coming in at 25th in goals allowed and 26th on the penalty kill. Connor Hellebuyck looks to get the starting nod for a second straight game and at least he has a better save percentage (.922) here compared to Michael Hutchinson.

The Jets don't score much either as is evident by their current ranking in both goals scored (20th) and the power play (24th). Given Florida's rankings discussed that were discussed above, I wouldn't expect much from Winnipeg offensively in this one. At the same time, the Jets' Achilles heel that is the penalty kill isn't likely to be tested by the league's worst power play. Over it's last 11 games, the Panthers have been held to two goals or fewer nine times. The Jets have scored just five times in their last three games and the Under hit the only other time this season they came in w/ at least three days' rest. 9* Under Panthers/Jets

10* Murray State (8:00 ET): We have a relatively "short" number that a SEC school is laying against a so-called "mid-major." It's for good reason. The fact that Ole Miss checked in at #26 in the RPI heading into their last game (80-75 loss at Va Tech) shows just how flawed that particular metric is. The far more reliable KenPom ratings have them 93rd, which is about where Vegas has them as well. That game at Virginia Tech, the Rebels' first "true" road date of the season, saw them trail the entire second half and fall behind by as many as 14. Defensively, there are major issues in Oxford and I think those will cost them tonight laying this number against an always dangerous Murray State squad. 

This may not be the finest edition of Murray State basketball that we've seen through the years, but the Racers are deadly in this spot nonetheless. Yes, they've failed to cover their last five lined games, losing outright twice as a favorite. But they were at least able to build some confidence by blowing out NAIA school Bethel, 103-65 on Monday. While the Racers have yet to win B2B games this season, this will be the most points they've been catching so far. They covered as 9-point pups in the second game of the year, at Middle Tennessee, who is a better team that Ole Miss. Don't believe me? The Blue Raiders beat the Rebels 77-62 in Oxford on November 30th! That loss to Middle Tennessee is one of three for Murray State this year to come by six points or less (11 pts total).

In nine games this season, Ole Miss has allowed at least eight made three-pointers eight times. Overall, they are giving up over 80 PPG. There's been only one game all year where they didn't allow at least 77 points. That's good for the underdog here as the Racers come in averaging 80 PPG and that's even after the dreadful shooting performance last week at Evansville. Ole Miss allowed Va Tech to sink 10 three-pointers on Sunday. Note that Murray State's Ohio Valley Conference rival UT Martin came here to Oxford and nearly won outright (as 17-pt dogs), losing by just three. That's one of three wins by five points or less so far for the Rebels. Murray State, while yet to play a Power 5 team, has scored at least 73 points in every game but one, that being the disaster that occurred vs. Evansville. Ole Miss has covered only four times this season, twice in losses where they were the underdogs and twice as a fave of 4.5 pts or less. The number is too high here. 10* Murray State

8* Puck Line Arizona (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Coyotes +1.5. Going against the Maple Leafs w/ an additional 1.5 goals "in our pocket" is not w/o precedent, but the chance to do so at this price has been fairly rare given the franchise's struggles the last several seasons. But with rookie Auston Matthews now in the fold, perception is that this team is improved. Maybe that's true, but the results say "not by much" as the Leafs' 28 points are more than only four other teams league-wide. Exactly half of the team's games this year (14 of 28) have been decided by one goal (lost 11 of those 14 games!), one of them coming here at home against San Jose (3-2 in a shootout) Tuesday. Considering the number of one-goal games and the fact the team is off a tough loss, I'd say they make for prime fade material tonight via the PL.

Now to get the PL at this price, our 'play on' team can hardly be a "world-beater." Sure enough, Arizona is one of those four teams w/ fewer points than the Leafs right now. But the difference (three) is somewhat negligible. The 'Yotes are 29th in my own power rankings (ahead of only the Avs), yet are off a 4-1 win over Detroit on Tuesday. Those were a much needed two points after suffering the embarrassment of falling 7-0 at Pittsburgh the previous night. But being on the wrong end of a rout such as that has been fairly uncommon for this team. Of their 19 losses this season, 11 have been by the one-goal margin. In fact, the 'Yotes have played more one-goal games (18) than Toronto has. 

I think coming in w/ an added day of rest is going to be big for the visitors here. As mentioned above, Toronto had to go to a shootout vs. San Jose in their last game (blew 2-goal lead in third period) and lost. That can be deflating, especially to a young team like the Leafs that has now dropped five of its last six games overall. Furthermore, Arizona has swept the season series each of the last two years, including a pair of one-goal victories in 2015. 'Yotes goaltender Mike Smith has been sharp of late w/ a .943 save percentage his L4 starts. The team hasn't won B2B games since sweeping a home and home from Edmonton on Thanksgiving Weekend, but they'll do no worse here than a one goal loss. 8* Arizona +1.5

8* UC Santa Barbara (10:30 ET): On paper, this shapes up as a colossal mismatch and there's no way I can stump for UCSB to win this game straight up. But at some point, the market has to run some "interference" and that's what I believe will take place here as the Gauchos' 0-5 ATS record should be remedied by what will certainly be the largest spread they'll face all season. Of course, there's a reason for this spread and the reason happens to be UCLA is unbeaten and rolling. The Bruins are 10-0 SU, ranked #2 in the country and have covered the spread in each of their last seven games. But they're due for a bit of an "off night" at least once, right? After high-profile games against Kentucky and Michigan, I'l call for that "off night" to take place here.

Note that in three of UCSB's five lined games, they have been the betting favorite. That includes Sunday's 77-68 loss to San Diego where they were 2.5-pt chalk on the road. Missing on 18 of 23 three-point attempts, plus going just 9 of 17 from the FT line did the Gauchos no favors in that one, especially w/ the Toreros making 12 three-point FG's and making over 90% of their own FT attempts. Going from a road favorite to near 30-pt underdog is quite the swing here for UCSB and while this is a really tough opponent, it's not like they haven't faced some strong competition. Already this season, they have played at both SMU and USC, the latter of whom is also still undefeated (though not nearly as strong as UCLA). Yes, UCSB's lone win thus far came against a non-DI school. But I believe they'll compete here.

At some point, UCLA HAS to cool off from three-point range. Right now, they are shooting an unsustainable 47.1% from behind the arc and Saturday vs. Michigan saw them go 15 of 24 from there and shoot 67.2% overall from the field!! In seven of 10 games, this team has now scored at least 97 points. Again, this cannot possibly continue. One thing I would worry about if I were a Bruins fan is defense as opponents are also shooting 40% from 3-pt range against them here at Pauley Pavillion. It was a 50-50 game (literally, that was the score) at halftime Saturday vs. Michigan. Hold your nose and take the boatload of points here. 8* UC Santa Barbara

8* Detroit (8:35 ET): Off an embarrassing loss (to Philadelphia!), I expect the Pistons to bounce back in a major way this evening as they face the team w/ the worst record in the league. That would be Dallas, whose fall from grace has been swift and harsh in 2016. The days of Dirk Nowitzki leading an efficient offense here are long gone and in fact Nowitzki isn't even playing these days. The Mavs have won their last two home games, both as small underdogs, but those came against subpar foes. One was Indiana, a situation where I actually was ON Dallas. The other was their last time out, arguably the best performance of the season when they blew out Denver 112-92. A repeat of the last game - for either team here - is unlikely.

For awhile, the Mavs had the least efficient offense in the entire league. They've worked their way up to 27th, but Monday's effort was definitely a surprise as six players scored in double figures en route to the team posting a season-high for most points in a half (65). But I am not buying that performance as the start of anything permanent. Not only is this team last in points per game (93.5), they're also last in rebounds and 29th in assists. So, yeah, they're really bad. An undrafted rookie, Dorian-Finney Smith, is seeing time as a starter currently. Again, we've seen a couple upsets from this team lately, but those came against teams worse than the Pistons. Dallas is also 0-4 SU/ATS this season after scoring 105+ points the previous game.

Detroit is a team better than its record. I say that because they're an unfortunate 0-3 SU in games decided by three points or less this year. That's tied for the most losses w/o a win in that situation in the entire league. Now it wasn't a close game at all when they lost to the Sixers 97-79 on Sunday (as 12-pt road favorites), but that was one of those dreaded early Sunday start times that always seem to favor the home side. As I said earlier, coming off such an embarrassing defeat, I expect SVG to have his team ready to go in this one. I just can't see the Pistons losing to two of the worst teams in the league, back to back, even on the road. They are 23-8 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. 8 * Detroit

10* North Dakota State (8:00 ET): North Dakota State is a university known for football and this Saturday will see the Bison square off w/ James Madison in the FCS semifinals. But it's the school's basketball team that I'm interested in tonight as they're at home, off a home loss. The 74-56 home loss to in-state rival North Dakota exactly one week ago dropped the Bison to 0-5 at the betting window on the still young season and was the second time they lost outright as favorites. But tonight in Fargo, I see them bouncing back in a major way against poor Cal Davis, who was the victim of my 10* Game of the Week selection on Saturday when they lost at Cal 86-61, the third consecutive time they've tasted defeat. Lay the points here.

It's hard to envision what Cal Davis might have left in the tank here. This is their third straight road game to start December and, in fact, 10 of their 11 games this season have been played on the road or at neutral sites! In my analysis Saturday, I spoke of the Aggies' propensity to turn the ball over too much and how they were subpar at both ends of the court. Nothing I saw in Berkeley changed my mind. They turned it over a season-high 21 times against Cal and shot a woeful 17 of 42 on two-point attempts. Going into halftime, it was a 39-18 game and whether or not Cal would cover the 17-pt spot was the only question. Did I mention the Aggies also allowed the Bears to shoot 56.5% from the field?

NDSU has dropped three of four and this will be the final non-conference home game before Summit League play begins. With a three-game road trip looming, which includes a game at Arkansas, it's really critical for the Bison to win here to build some "momentum." (hate that word!). Fortunately, UC Davis should be a willing "dance partner." These teams met in LY's season opener and it was NDSU winning on the road, 79-71, as three-point chalk (actually trailed by six at halftime). I think the combination of a week off + looking to atone for a home loss has the Bison ready to go here. They are giving up just 63.8 PPG this season and have covered three of the last four times they've played w/ five plus days rest. 10* North Dakota State

8* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): There isn't a more competitive division in the sport than the Metro right now where we find the Penguins sitting atop the heap. Four of my top six teams in my power rankings call the Metro home and a fifth (Philadelphia) happens to be the hottest team in the league. So, kudos must be extended to the Pens for leading this group as they've won six straight entering play tonight. They'll host Boston and are 12-2-1 on home ice so far. The Bruins, tied for second in the much weaker Atlantic Division, snapped a three-goal losing skid w/ an OT win at 1st place Montreal on Monday. But I simply do not like their chances of beating both Eastern Conference division leaders, on the road, in three days' time.

I won't run or hide. Rather, I'll come out an say that I played against the Bruins Monday night. They had simply not had much success in recent years playing at Montreal and goaltending had been an issue during the losing streak. For the year, the team is also just 25th in goals scored and 27th on the power play. Going 5 for 5 on the penalty kill was huge vs. the Habs, who outshot them, 31-29. Goaltender Tuukka Rask came up big as well after struggling his recent outings. His save percentage over his L4 games is still only .890 though and you have to wonder how he'll hold up facing the top goal scoring team in the entire league. During the six-game win streak, the Pens have scored an amazing 35 times.

The last time we saw the Pens hit the ice, they won 7-0 over lowly Arizona. That was the third time scoring at least six goals during the current win streak. They'll be out for revenge here as they were swept by the Bruins (0-3) in the season series last year and are just 1-5 L6 head to head overall, including 0-3 at home. But, that's the past and right now all of Pittsburgh's big names are playing well. That includes goaltender Matt Murray, who has a .951 save percentage his L4 games! This is nothing new from Murray either, his save percentage for the year is .936 and at home it's .944. By the way, the Pens have allowed only 14 goals during this win streak. They are averaging 36.6 shots the L5 games. This is a terrible spot for Boston as who would want to step in front of this Pittsburgh team right now? Not I! 8* Pittsburgh

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): Two of the league's most pleasant surprises tango in Alberta on Tuesday. Stepping in front on this Columbus team might seem dangerous seeing as they've won six in a row, but I just won w/ Edmonton here on home ice Sunday and will come back with them again tonight. Typically, I will lean heavily on goal differential as a means for determining a team's chances at future success and while the Blue Jackets are #2 in the league (trailing only the Rangers) in that department, I see them slipping up in this spot. They've played a bevy of weak opponents recently and while the goal differential may be vastly inferior to C-Bus, the Oilers are in the same neighborhood as far as points are concerned.

Prior to beating the Jets Sunday night, Edmonton had lost four in a row and seven of its last nine. However, in my analysis for that matchup, I cited a return home as justification for a play on the Oilers. Sure enough, it worked out and while we needed an "own goal" from Winnipeg, I thought Edmonton largely was in control of that game. Also, it should be pointed out that it wasn't like the Oilers were being blown out in that four-game losing streak. Every loss had been by one goal and three came in extra time. This team is top seven in both areas of special teams (power play, penalty kill) and is also sixth in goals per game. Likely starter Cam Talbot has been performing a lot better in goal of late as well.

Columbus has been dominating teams during its win streak, but again, some of those opponents happen to rank at the very bottom of the league. We're talking Colorado, Arizona (twice!), Detroit and the Islanders. Three of those teams are currently in last place in their respective divisions and none have more than 30 points. So truth be told, the Blue Jackets SHOULD be on a six-game win streak right now. They are not the money line favorite here, however, and are just 6-20 SU all-time at Edmonton. 10* Edmonton

10* Morehead State (9:05 ET): My, oh my, what a curious line this is. We have the home team (Eastern Washington), winners of six straight, laying just the "token" three points to our side, which has lost six straight. If you think something is "rotten in Denmark" here, you're not alone. A clear trap has been set here by the oddsmakers and it's one that I, personally, will not be falling for. Note that while EWU has won its last six games, two of those (against the same opponent!) have come in double overtime, another in just single OT plus and two more were decided by six points or less. Save for the last game, a 103-76 win over non-lined Great Falls, this has been one of the least dominant six-game win streaks that I can recall. Take the points.

The team that Eastern Washington beat twice in double overtime, in a 12-day span mind you, is Seattle. The first occasion took place on 11.22. The game saw EWU tie the game up on a three-pointer w/ less than six seconds to go in both regulation and the 1st OT. The second time around, this time at Seattle (on 12.4), saw them have to rally back from a 14-pt deficit in the second half. The Eagles also had to rally from a halftime deficit to defeat Denver in OT here at home on 11.27. "Way back" on 11.21, they benefited from 34 FT attempts and a career game from Bogdan Bliznyuk to beat Bryant by only four. Free throws were again key in a six-point win over San Francisco on 11.27 as the Eagles were 23 of 26 from the charity stripe while the Dons were just 14 of 22. That game also saw EWU have to rally from a seven-point halftime deficit. So, what I'm saying is that this team is extraordinarily lucky to be 7-2 SU right now. 

Morehead State would obviously "kill" to have that record, but I see more positive things on the horizon for these Eagles tonight. There's a bit of controversy here as HC Sean Woods (former player at Kentucky) is still suspended as an investigation takes place over his treatment of players. But the real issue for Morehead State has been their opponents simply can't miss from three-point range. Their last two opponents, Purdue and Lipscomb, have combined to 30 of 55 (54.5%) from behind the arc! That's insane. (Note the Eagles had beaten Lipscomb earlier in the year). That doesn't even include ridiculously hot shooting games from Pitt and Evansville either. This can't all be blamed on the Morehead State defense either as they are quite good at forcing steals (8.8 per game, which is 24th in the country) and have a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio, which leads their conference (OVC). This was pegged to be one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley this season and I see them going to Cheney and picking up a road win. 10* Morehead State

10* Under Sharks/Maple Leafs (7:35 ET): San Jose has won 7 of its last 10 games, but has fallen to fourth in the all of a sudden competitive Pacific Divison. I view this division as the weakest in the sport, but perhaps that's about to change w/ five teams separated by only five points. As a matter of fact, were the playoffs to start today, BOTH Wild Cards would come from the Pacific, a major departure from LY in the Western Conference where both came from the far more heralded Central. The resurgence of both the Oilers and Flames have a lot to do w/ this, but don't discount the Sharks, who have given up the fourth fewest number of goals in the league so far. My only problem w/ them, however, is that only three teams have SCORED fewer goals. As a result, the Under is 17-4-7 for them this season. With an advantageous number here, I feel the trend continues. Play this one Under the total. 

Now whomever is in goal for the Sharks tonight (likely Martin Jones) is going to be tested by a Toronto team that is averaging a whopping 37.6 shots its last five games. But it turns out San Jose is pretty good at shot suppression; in fact they are #2 in the league in this department. Trailing only the Kings, who annually lead the league, the Sharks are allowing just 26.3 shots per game for the season. Now, uncharacteristically, they've allowed 32+ in three of the last four games. But Jones has a solid .925 save percentage his last four starts. With Aaron Dell starting last game, it was a high scoring 4-3 win over Carolina. But the good news is that the Sharks are a perfect 5-0 Under this season after scoring 4+ goals the previous game. They are also a perfect 6-0 Under on the road if the total is set at 5.5 goals.  

The Maple Leafs have stayed Under the total in five straight games and they've actually gotten pretty good at shot suppression as well. They've allowed an average of just 27.3 the L4 games. Incredibly, they put 52 shots on goal their last game, against a team (Colorado) that had just given up 10 goals, and came away w/ just a single goal. I can assure you that shot total will come WAY down tonight. The game before saw the Leafs manage only 20 shots on goal. They also won't be giving up seven goals like they did the last time they faced San Jose as they can now lean on Frederik Andersen between the pipes. Andersen has a .925 save percentage his L4 starts.10* Under Sharks/Maple Leafs

8* Under Grizzlies/Cavs (7:05 ET): While I see the Cavs winning this one in blowout fashion, it won't be in their usual high-scoring mode. That's because they are facing a Memphis team that not only has gone Under in four consecutive contests, but also plays at the third slowest pace in the entire league. Earlier in the year, Cleveland did score 128 pts on the team that plays at the slowest pace in the league (Dallas), but the Mavs are terrible. The Grizzlies can certainly be more stout defensively as they showed Saturday when they held Golden State (#1 in offensive efficiency) to a shockingly low 89 points. The game before they held Portland to only 86 points on 30.5% shooting. Take the Under here (and the number is dropping!).

Cleveland has scored at least 100 pts in all but three games this year and two were losses, one w/o LeBron James. So it's clear that we'll need Memphis to struggle offensively in this one and fortunately that's what I'm projecting. Yes, the Cavs have been a bit disappointing at the defensive end of the floor this year, but that's due in part to building large leads after the first quarter. That's not how I see this particular game unfolding. Memphis plays at too slow a pace for that to happen. But that being said, they also are shooting a pretty woeful 42% from the floor for the season and just 40.9% in the L5 games. I should also point out that Memphis games are currently the lowest scoring in the league at 195.6 PPG.

The fact that the Grizzlies have also held their last five opponents to an average of 94.8 PPG on 39.2% shooting also bodes well here. Cleveland cannot possibly maintain its ridiculously hot shooting from the L2 games as it shot 55.4% against Miami and then 57.5% against Charlotte. LeBron James, as per usual, was just sensational vs. the Hornets w/ a 44-9-10 statline and he did so on 17 of 24 shooting. But as phenomenal a performer as he is, he likely won't be duplicating that here. Also encouraging is that the Cavs have held their last five opponents to 42.6% shooting from the field. 8* Under Grizzlies/Cavs

8* Over Ravens/Patriots (8:30 ET): I am quite astonished that New England isn't getting its "usual amount of respect" for a home game here. Granted, they are w/o Rob Gronkowski and the Ravens have the top run defense in the NFL. But I still think the Pats can put quite a few points on the board Monday night as long as Tom Brady is the quarterback. This Baltimore defense, while stout against the run, still allows 4.9 yards per play as they've been quite susceptible through the air. Granted, they weren't last week against Miami, but that was due to them jumping all over the Dolphins early and thus the defense was able to play in a position of strength the rest of the way. Weather impacted a number of games Sunday, but it does not look as if it will play a role here. Take the Over.

Baltimore's offense had largely not been doing its part most of this season, but that changed in a major way w/ a 36-point effort LW vs. Miami. QB Joe Flacco threw for a season-best 386 yards in that victory and while you may be tempted to say "good luck" to him in his attempt to match that number against Bill Belichick, note New England has really benefited from facing a string of lousy QB's this year. The last three games alone they've faced Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick and Jared Goff. No wonder they've allowed 17 pts or less in three straight games! Flacco and the Ravens certainly present a greater challenge here. Flacco has posted a 16-8 TD-INT ratio vs. the Patriots in his career and Baltimore has scored at least 20 points in eight of those nine games.

Of course, then we have Brady, who since returning from his four-game suspension has completed nearly 69 percent of his pass attempts w/ an incredible 19-1 TD-INT ratio. In the eight games w/ Brady at the helm, the offense has averaged 29.75 PPG. Sure, most of the defenses faced during that time are not as good as Baltimore's is, but as I said before the Ravens can be had through the air. Opposing QB's are completing over 64% of their pass attempts against their secondary and they, like New England, have hardly faced a litany of great offenses. 8* Over Ravens/Patriots

10* Under Nets/Rockets (8:05 ET): I fully understand that the matchup of Brooklyn's awful defense against Houston's efficient offense could be problematic when playing the Under, but the fact remains this is one of the highest totals we've seen all year in the NBA. Neither team's games are within 10 points of where this number might close at, so the value is on the Under here. Granted, Brooklyn has been a bit of an "Over machine" lately, going that way in each of the last four games and the last one saw them give up 130 to San Antonio. That makes them 10-0 Over this year vs. Western Conference foes! But this is set to be the highest O/U line for any Nets game all season and it will be close for the Rockets as well (only a game vs. GSW currently higher). Again, the value here is on the Under.

Entering tonight's action, the Nets are allowing a league-high 114.9 points per game. That number jumps to 118.2 on the road and what's really frightening is that they've allowed at least 111 in 13 consecutive games. But it still takes "two to tango" and even if the Nets' defensive ineptitude continues, I do not believe it will be enough to send this game Over. I say that because all of a sudden Houston has held three consecutive opponents under 100 points and that includes Oklahoma City. The Under has actually cashed more times this season for the Rockets than has the Over. It's been over a year since these teams have played, but note that the totals for last year's two meetings were both sub-210.

Fast starts to games have become commonplace for the Rockets, including a 36-point first quarter effort vs. Dallas on Saturday. But note that for the rest of the game, the team scored "only" 73 points. They went 19 of 37 from three-point range, a number of makes and percentage that I do not believe they'll be able to equal here. I also can't see the Nets being as porous as they were Saturday when they let the Spurs shoot 53.2% from the floor. Over the L5 games, Brooklyn is shooting just 42.7% from the field itself, so again, it's them failing to do "their part" that should cost Over bettors here. The number is just too high. 10* Under Nets/Rockets

8* Montreal (7:35 ET): The Habs continue to stake their claim as one of the top teams in the league. They have started the current four-game homestand by absolutely taking it to both New Jersey and Colorado. The latter they just beat 10-1 on Saturday. Yes, you read that score correctly: 10-1. Ironically, in addition to matching the league-high for goals scored in a game w/ 10, the Habs also allowed 10 goals in a loss earlier this year (to Columbus). Funny how that evens out. Regardless, there is no debate that this team looks to be running away w/ the Atlantic, a division which includes rival Boston, a team the Canadiens have beaten 9 of the last 11 times they've faced off. That includes a 3-2 win here at the Molson Centre last month and a 4-2 win in Beantown to start the season. Make it another.

While the Habs are flying high right now, the Bruins are not displaying top form. They've lost three in a row coming into tonight, giving up four goals in each loss. At the same time, they've seen their own goal total decrease from 3 to 2 to 1 during the course of the losing streak. Such a pattern does not look good for tonight when they have to go up against Carey Price, who is number four in the league in save percentage (.940) and goals against average (1.79). Boston did put forth 43 shots on goal the last time they faced Price, but it wasn't enough to win. While they've posted 30+ shots in the L9 games overall, they've only managed to score 3+ goals twice in the L7 games.The power play is 1 for 15 in December and for the year, this team ranks 26th w/ the man advantage. They are also just 24th in goals per game. None of these numbers figure to improve when facing Price.

Meanwhile, not only does Montreal rank 4th in goals allowed, they are 4th in goals scored. Their last three wins have all seen them score at least five times. They scored six times in the first period alone Saturday. Granted, that was against a somewhat hideous Avalanche club, but for the year the team is averaging almost 4.0 gpg here at the Molson Centre where they're outscoring the opposition by over 2.0 gpg! Boston's Tuukka Rask isn't far behind Price in terms of save percentage and GAA, but he's definitely been slipping of late w/ a .895 save percentage the L4 games. 8* Montreal

10* Maryland (7:00 ET): To me at least, this is a shockingly low number for a team that still has only 1 loss to be laying against such an inferior foe. I actually played against Maryland in their lone loss of the season, which came back on November 29th, to Pitt, 73-59 (were 4.5-pt favorites). In my analysis for that game, I did mention how the Terps' unbeaten run was somewhat living on "borrowed time" considering they'd posted several close wins to start the year, two of them by exactly one point. Immediately after the Pitt loss, they posted another (71-70 over Oklahoma State), which ironically I was on. Since then, they've won by double digits over both Howard and St. Peter's. I see that being the case here again tonight vs. overmatched Jacksonville State. Lay the points.

Whomever handles Jacksonville State's schedule must be part sadist. Either that, or the school is simply trying to rack up frequent flyer miles. This will be the Gamecocks' 11th game of the season and 10th away from home! Furthermore, they'll be playing nothing but "true" road games from now until the end of the calendar year. The current trek began w/ a three-point win over Alabama State on 11.29 (same day Maryland suffered its only loss). Since then, they've lost at Samford and LA Monroe, both times by five points or less. While those were close games, the step up in class here is rather immense. Shockingly, this spread is almost identical to the one JSU faced when taking on Tulsa, a team I rate seven points worse than Maryland! Yes, the Gamecocks won that first game outright, but again, this will - easily - be their toughest opponent to date.

Fatigue could certainly be a factor for the Gamecocks here as well. The loss at LA Monroe took place Saturday and that game went into overtime. Maryland also played Saturday, but that was at home and they were not tested (never trailed!). Yes, center Damonte Dodd is out here w/ a knee injury, but that should not affect this game. Leading scorer Melo Trimble has found support in the form of a pair of freshman - Justin Jackson and Kevin Huerter. Keep in mind that the Terps led by as many as 25 in the second half Saturday before clearly taking their foot off the proverbial gas pedal.  10* Maryland

8* Pepperdine (10:00 ET): Entering play on Sunday, there are seven teams in the country still undefeated. KenPom, a far more reliable ranking system than the pollsters, has five of them in the top 20 (only Villanova cracks the Top 10!). The other two are South Carolina and USC, who are tied for the fewest number of wins among the unbeatens (8) and no one is really taking seriously. While USC is unlikely to fall at home Sunday night, their unbeaten record sure does have them overvalued as they host Pepperdine. This is a bit of a tricky spot for the Trojans as they've been off for the last week (last game was on 12.3) and won't play again until 12.17. Seems like a good time to step in and fade them. Take the points.

Pepperdine isn't likely to scare anyone being that they're currently riding a four-game losing streak, but the Waves can be competitive. They've proven that by cashing all four times they've been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the previous two seasons. They are about to enter a very tough stretch of games as Wednesday's loss at Long Beach State marked the beginning of a six-game road trip that will take them to the end of the year. Aside from a somewhat embarrassing loss to Portland State (at home) earlier this month, it's not like the Waves have been drastically underperforming expectations. This marks the sixth game in a row that they will be an underdog. They do hold a neutral site win over Ark-Little Rock back on 11.22.

The last time we saw USC, they beat BYU 91-84 at Staples Center. The game marked their first w/o starting forward Bennie Boatright, who will miss the next six weeks due to a knee injury. Boatright is a key loss as he averages 10.8 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. It should be pointed out that the Trojans lost the rebounding battle vs. BYU. Though BYU missed 18 of its 23 three-point attempts, they were still able to score 84 points, including 52 in the second half. So Pepperdine should have no issues scoring here and given the large pointspread, that's a winning combination as far as the betting window is concerned. The Waves are dealing w/ injuries as well, but have a 22 PPG scorer in Lamond Murray Jr. The team is shooting better than 40% from three-point range as well. 8* Pepperdine

7* Edmonton (9:35 ET): Considering the success I had going against Winnipeg last night, I might as well do it again as it's a two-night stop in Alberta for the team from two provinces over. In the analysis for yday's game, I cited the fact that Calgary was a hot team looking to earn its way into first place in the Pacific as rationale to play. Lo and behold, the Flames are now atop the division. But, truth be told, Edmonton is a better team than Calgary, at least using goal differential as a metric. But the difference is that the Oilers have been trending in an opposite direction of late w/ four consecutive losses. However, the last three losses have all come on the road. Back at home and facing a wounded opponent, I like Edmonton to bounce back here and reclaim at least a share of the Pacific Division lead.

It wound up being a pretty ugly loss for the Jets last night as they had their doors blown off in the second period and eventually fell by a score of 6-2. Things were scoreless until nearly halfway through the second period, but then the dam broke and Calgary scored a total of four times over a 10-minute stretch. In my analysis, I had mentioned that goaltending has been a real concern for Winnipeg this season. They rank near the bottom of the league in save percentage and once again it looks as if we'll get to go against the struggling Connor Hellebuyck (.868 L4 games). He only came on in relief last night after Michael Hutchinson had the disastrous second period. Hellebuyck allowed two of the six shots he saw in the third period to find the back of the net. As a reminder, Winnipeg's special teams are lousy as they rank 24th and 26th on the power play and penalty kill, respectively.

Edmonton, on the other hand, has excellent special teams as they are top 10 in both areas. Led by Connor McDavid, the team is also 7th in goals per game, so look for them to exploit the Jets' goaltending problems. This is a team that does a good job at getting the puck on goal as they average 32.2 shots per game at home. All we need is a decent night in goal from Cam Talbot and things should be just fine. Talbot and the Oilers should be aided by the fact Winnipeg averages only 24.2 shots per game on the road. 7* Edmonton

10* New Orleans (8:35 ET): The Pelicans were somewhat humiliated last night, losing to the Clippers 133-105. It was a close game, at least for a half (NO trailed only 61-55 heading into the break), but Chris Paul's virtuoso performance of 20 pts, 20 assists and zero turnovers proved to be too much. It should also be pointed out that Anthony Davis, who is averaging a league-high 38.1 minutes per game, was rested.  It was the team's fifth consecutive loss (also 0-5 ATS) and seventh in the last eight games. This stretch is reminiscent to the start of the season when they began 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS. In between, however, they were 6-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. With Davis expected back in the lineup Sunday, I like the team to at least cover, if not snap the losing streak outright. 

Not sure Phoenix should be favored here. Yes, they did just win out in LA (over the Lakers) Friday night in a nationally televised affair. But I suspect that rather high profile 119-115 victory is the cause for this line, something I would dub an "overreaction." It should be pointed out that not only are the Suns 0-4 ATS this season when favored, they have lost all four games outright! They are still w/o TJ Warren (concussion). Coming off a SU win as a dog this year, the team is 1-5 SU and ATS. Three different bench players scored in double figures against the Lakers, something that simply cannot be counted on a game by game basis. According to my own power rankings, the Suns remain one of the worst teams in the league as they are 22nd in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency. They give up 113 PPG, most in the Western Conference. 

Though beaten badly last night, it stands to reason that the Pelicans should bounce back w/ Davis returning to the lineup. Again, despite being severely short-handed, they hung tough w/ the talented Clippers for a half. The 133 pts allowed last night were a season-high and can directly be tied to Davis' absence as the team actually ranks a respectable 13th in defensive efficiency overall. Also possibly rejoining the lineup tonight are Jrue Holliday and E'Twaun Moore. Having actually dropped three in a row to the Suns, one of those earlier this year, this is a bit of a revenge game for the Pelicans as well. 10* New Orleans

10* Over Jets/49ers (4:05 ET): For a second consecutive week, the Niners are favored. The role certainly didn't suit them well last week as they were humiliated 26-6 in Chicago. That outright defeat dropped them to 0-7 ATS in the favorite role their last seven chances. Incredibly, despite using two different QB's, San Fran managed just SIX passing yards last week. Not to be outdone, the Jets may have put forth an even more putrid performance LW as they basically no-showed in a 41-10 home loss to the Colts Monday night. Thus this shapes up as the ugliest matchup on the Week 14 card w/ virtually everyone looking to go Under the total. But, rarely do we find the percentage of total tickets so high on the Under. I'm going contrarian here and taking the Over as there's no way either offense will be as bad as they were last week.

The Jets are finally moving past QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who never should have been re-signed in the first place. Starting for the first time in his career will be Bryce Petty of Baylor fame. This may not sound inspiring to you, but making Petty's life easier is the fact that the 49ers defense is worst in the league against the run and it's not even close. San Fran allows a ghastly 169.3 YPG over land at 4.9 yards per pop. While the Jets have managed a total of only 100 rush yards (combined!) the L2 games, note the previous four weeks saw them gain 139+ every time out. For the year, the 49ers give up over 400 YPG and 30.8 PPG. Both of those averages rank dead last in the league.

Colin Kaepernick will again get the start despite LW's putrid performance. As bad as things have gone for Kaepernick this year, his TD-INT ratio and yards per pass attempt are both at their highest levels since the Super Bowl season of 2012. The Jets defense is nowhere near as good as it was in Todd Bowles' first year and is giving up 28.2 points per game on the road. The secondary was shredded last week by Andrew Luck and while there's a drop in class in terms of the opposing QB they will face here, I'm not positive that a short week will allow for the Jets secondary to cure all that ails them. For the year, they're giving up over a 65% completion rate. Weather should not be an issue in this game. 10* Over Jets/49ers

10* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): The Eagles' surprise 3-0 SU and ATS start is now a distant memory as they've gone just 2-7 SU and ATS since their Week 4 bye. They've lost three consecutive games, all by 11 pts or more, and failed to score more than 15 pts in any of them. So, you might already be wondering why I'd be willing to endorse them in this spot. Well, for starters, they are at home. Prior to the Monday night game against the Packers, Philly was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS here at Lincoln Financial Field. This is also a play AGAINST Washington, whom I still do not believe in. This is the third consecutive road game for the 'Skins and seeing as I was right to fade them LW (lost 31-23 at Arizona), I'll do so again here.

Last week marked the Eagles worst loss of the year as they were soundly beaten in Cincinnati, 32-14. They fell behind 29-0 in the third quarter and only scored in "garbage time." 1st year HC Doug Pederson ripped his team's performance (rightly so) saying "not everyone" played hard. I realize there are some legit concerns w/ rookie QB Carson Wentz and this offense right now, but going up against a Redskins defense which has permitted three or more scores in six consecutive games, they should find their way. It will certainly help to get WR Jordan Matthews back. Last week was the first game Matthews missed in his career. It showed. At home, this offense averages 24.2 points and 358 yards per game at home. More importantly though, the defense (still one of the best in the league) allows only 13.0 PPG. 

Something else to consider here is the fact that when these teams met back in Week 6, the Eagles were actually favored in D.C.. Granted, they lost 27-20 and failed to record an offensive touchdown, but going from road favorite to home dog for the rematch comes across as a classic overadjustment to me. Washington's offense may again be missing TE Jordan Reed. While QB Kirk Cousins has proven himself to be more than serviceable, I still don't trust him in these situations. The Redskins have only been a road fave once this year (-1 at Detroit) and lost that game straight up. Philly is due to reverse a 0-4 SU/0-5 ATS slide in this NFC East rivalry. Note that this is the first time in seven tries that the 'Skins are favored over the Eagles. The Eagles still have a better YTD point differential. 10* Philadelphia

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): For 2.5 quarters last week, everything was going perfectly for the Bills as they led the Raiders, in Oakland, 24-9. But then, improbably, everything went awry. From that point on, they were outscored 29-0. It was a killer loss too as Buffalo fell to 6-6 SU, two games back of the final Wild Card. But they do have a favorable schedule on the horizon w/ Cleveland, Miami and the Jets to close the season, only the Jets game being on the road. If they can win this first of three home games, this week vs. Pittsburgh, I'd give the Bills a very good chance at winning out and qualifying for the "tournament." While the Steelers might seem too formidable, note the three-game win streak they come in on has been the byproduct of largely weak competition. With the homefield advantage, I believe the Bills should be favored here.

Predictably, the public is loading up on the Steelers here, making them one of the most popular choices of this week. But as I said a moment ago, this three game win streak of the Steelers' has been the byproduct of some fairly week competition. They've beaten Cleveland (worst team in the league), Indianapolis (w/ Scott Tolzien) and the Giants (overrated). This marks their third road game in four weeks, so there could be some weariness involved even though the travel has not been far.

Something else worth nothing is each of those last three opponents rank 26th or lower in rush offense. Buffalo leads the league in rushing at a monster 161.9 YPG. The Steelers may rank 6th in the league against the run, but they are 0-4 SU and ATS when facing a top 10 rush offense. Again, there is no better offense at running the football than the one they'll face here. Making matters more difficult is that DT Javon Hargrave (concussion) may not play here. Buffalo has run for 150+ yards in five straight games. The passing attack has been much maligned, but this could be the first time since Week 2 that QB Tyrod Tayor has both WR's Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods available at his disposal. The Steelers offense, as lauded as it may be, has scored more than 28 pts just one time in the L7 games. The Bills actually average more points per game! 8* Buffalo

10* Arizona (1:00 ET): Previous ventures out East have not gone well for the Cardinals this year. (see losses at Buffalo, Carolina and Atlanta). But awaiting them in Miami might be their weakest Eastern Time Zone foe yet and I was shocked that Arizona opened as the dog here. Yes, the Dolphins are the team that finds itself in more realistic playoff contention, but Ryan Tannehill and company were badly exposed in LW's one-sided beatdown at the hands of Baltimore. As I noted in LW's play on Arizona, this team still has one of the best defenses in the league as that unit still ranks #2 in yards allowed on both a per game and per play basis. Believe it or not, but the Cardinals are #1 in the league in YPG differential!

Before running into the Ravens last week, Miami had won six in a row. But half of those wins had come against the Jets, Rams and 49ers. They were fortunate to beat both Buffalo and San Diego. I'll give them credit for the win over Pittsburgh, but that was almost two months ago. Last week saw the offense get held to just 277 total yards in Baltimore and what's notable about that is Arizona's defense rates fairly comparably to that of the Ravens. In fact, Miami now finds itself in the unenviable situation of having to face the top two defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed in consecutive weeks. Remember what I said about Arizona ranking #1 in the league in YPG differential? Well, Miami is 29th in that department (-45.3)! 

It was nice to see the Arizona offense get back on track last week w/ 31 points vs. Washington. They needed it as the usually stout defense actually had an off-game. But it's a much weaker offense that they'll be going up against here. Speaking of offense, Arizona's David Johnson is having himself a MVP-caliber season. He leads the league in yards from scrimmage w/ 100+ in every game thus far. Miami's defense ranks only 29th against the run and only one team (awful San Francisco) is giving up more yards per carry. So look for Johnson to have a big game here. Including last week's loss, Miami is an awful 0-10 ATS in the month of December the L3 seasons. 10* Arizona

10* California (10:30 ET): Since winning and covering their season opener, Cal has has its issues at the betting window. But help comes tonight in the form of UC Davis, a team outside the top 250 in the country. While Cal has struggled to cover games (2-7 ATS), they are 7-2 straight up, including a perfect 6-0 here in Berkeley. Off a loss to Seton Hall Wednesday (in Hawaii), I anticipate they'll be looking to blow the doors off UC Davis here and the Aggies should be pretty compliant given a 1-33 SU mark as a road underdog of more than 12.5 points. 

Cal did lead Seton Hall at the half Wednesday (34-31), but overall it was a poor shooting night, especially from three-point range where they were just 3 of 16. Cuonzo Martin's team entered the break having shot 52.4% overall from the field, so it was clearly the second half that cost them. Back at home, I imagine we'll see better shooting tonight. One thing that we can count on w/ the Bears is their defense, which is permitting just 60.0 PPG. Only one opponent, San Diego State, has topped 65 points against them this season. That's pretty impressive and thus you would expect that they would have covered more games. They did beat Princeton in the Pearl Harbor Invitational, holding them to only 51 points. This remains a top 50 team nationally.

UC Davis has been off for a week, but this will be their second consecutive road game. They lost at Idaho, 68-66 as 6.5-point dogs, last Saturday as that game was decided at the buzzer. They did win their only other road game to date, outright, as they upset Santa Clara 63-58 as 5.5-pt dogs back on November 12th. But this shapes up as the Aggies' most difficult game to date. Cal is very good at forcing teams to take tough two-point shots and UC Davis is shooting only 46.4% on two-point attempts this year, which ranks 250th nationally. The Aggies are below par on both ends of the floor compared to the national average an also have a propensity to turn the ball over way too much. Led by preseason All-American Ivan Rabb, Cal simply has too much height for this overmatched opponent and don't forget 7' junior center Kingsley Okorah. The Bears have been dealing w/ numerous injuries so far, which explains them falling short of the oddsmakers expectations, but head into this contests as healthy as they've been all season. For UC Davis, who has played 10 games total, this is their ninth on the road. 10* California

10* Calgary (10:05 ET): Last year, not one Canadian team qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, an all-time first. Two teams trying their best to ensure history does not repeat itself this year meet here in Calgary Saturday night. Both the Flames and Jets have been outscored by nine goals this season, but the deciding factor here is that the former is hotter, pun intended. Calgary has won five straight to move into third place in the Pacific and they're actually only one point behind the co-division leaders, Anaheim and Edmonton. Both of those teams are idle tonight, so there's a chance when we wake up in the morning the Flames will be by themselves in first place. On Sunday morning, I see expect to see them atop the Pacific Division heap.

Winnipeg has dropped B2B games, both at home. Ironically, last weekend saw them go on the road and beat the top two teams in their own division, Chicago and St. Louis. But that's not par for the course as the team is just 5-10 SU away from home this year and averaging only 24.1 shots per game in those contests. That kind of average simply will not get it done. The team's previous road trip saw them lose all five games and score only six goals in the process. At home, they managed only 18 shots against the Rangers on Thursday and gave up the GW goal w/ just one a minute to go in regulation. That GW goal saw the Rangers on the power play, which brings up the fact that the Jets' special teams have been quite lousy. They rank just 23rd on the power play and 25th on the penalty kill.

Calgary has had a lot of success in the past when hosting Winnipeg. They've taken 9 of 11 from them at the Saddledome including three straight. It was a pair of 4-1 wins here last season. Their own special teams aren't much better than Winnipeg's, but they have scored at least one time in each of the last four games when on the man advantage. The PK is 13 of 14 during the five-game win streak. They've also given up just seven goals total. Free agent acquisition Brian Elliott has been a bust, but fortunately Chad Johnson has emerged w/ a .932 save percentage. Meanwhile, the Jets are bottom five in the league in save percentage and the likely starter for tonight (Connor Hellebuyck) is at .889 on the road. 10* Calgary

8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): This total is too low for a Warriors game. The best team in the league sees an average of 225 total points scored in their game (league-high) due to an other-worldly offense that is easily the league's best. They average 119.3 points per game and 1.15 points per possession. Ironically, tonight brings a date w/ a team whose games - on average - are among the lowest scoring in the entire league (only Detroit & Orlando lower). I feel this total is so low, not because of the Grizzlies' season-long averages, but due to the last game w/ Portland, which was an 88-86 final. Like Golden State, the Blazers are typically involved in high-scoring affairs, but the difference is Memphis won't be holding the Warriors to 88 points. Take the Over.

I admit that Memphis' home games do tend to be really low scoring. They average just 189.2 points per game, which again ranks among the lowest averages in the entire league. The game w/ Portland Thursday was even lower scoring than that average, but note that both sides were just dreadful shooting the ball. The Grizzlies finished at just 35.6% while the Blazers were a heinous 30.5%! In fact, each of Memphis' last three opponents have shot below 40%. Good luck holding the Warriors anywhere close to that percentage. The two-time defending Western Conference Champs are above 50% for the year. Since starting the year 0-3 ATS, GSW has been held under 115 points only four times.

One of those four times was Thursday as they faced a stout Jazz team. But that was a game they scored 65 first half points and somewhat coasted from there. The 41 point second half was among their lowest scoring halves in any game this season. While the Under is 5-3 in the Dubs' last eight games, four of those Under came in games where the total was 217.5 points or higher. As it stands now, this would be the third lowest total for any Golden State game this season. It'll be the highest for Memphis, but considering these teams went Over a total of 213 in the final meeting last season, it's not high enough. 8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

10* Miami (8:05 ET): The Heat were blown out last night in Cleveland, but I see them bouncing back tonight in Chicago and earning themselves at least a cover. The Bulls are in prime letdown mode here as they're fresh off an upset of San Antonio on TNT Thursday night. They were three-point underdogs there, but have now shifted to large favorites at the betting window, a role that I do not believe suits them well. As a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, they are just 6-12 ATS the L3 seasons. When these teams met in Miami exactly one month ago, the line was a pick 'em. Though Chicago won that game by three, I do not believe the large shift in the spread is justified for this rematch. Take the points.

Miami has actually won and covered each of its last three visits to the Windy City. Obviously, this is a rebuilding year on South Beach, something that was readily apparent by looking at the lineup Coach "Spo" trotted out last night in Cleveland. But not every opponent is going to be as strong as the Cavaliers, who had way too much firepower. It also didn't help that the Heat shot a season-worst 34.8 percent from the floor. Their best player, Hassan Whiteside, was held to just eight points on 4 of 10 shooting and wound up getting benched. At the same time, the Cavs gashed them for 55.4 percent shooting. I expect the shooting percentages to be far closer tonight. Since the start of November, Chicago has shot better than 50% from the floor in only one game. That was against the defensively inept Lakers.

Chicago has beaten both Cleveland and San Antonio in the last eight days, but lost three straight times in between, including a blowout at the hands of the team w/ the worst record in the league (Dallas). They've been a very inconsistent team. Given that both of these squads rank in the bottom third in pace of play, we shouldn't expect a ton of possessions tonight and thus the likelihood of a blowout decreases. Over the L30 days, the Bulls have posted just two double digit victories and one was against Philadelphia. There's also the matter of their 9-20 ATS record (L3 seasons) when coming off a SU win as a dog. 10* Miami

8* Michigan (8:00 ET): UCLA is one of eight remaining unbeaten teams in the country. Ironically, I don't think any of them, save for #1 Villanova, belong in the top 10! UCLA is currently ranked #2 by the pollsters, but I don't know of anyone besides them who thinks this is the second best team in the country. This will be the Bruins' first game since their upset of then-#1 Kentucky last Saturday and while a week can be a long time, I still view this as a letdown spot in Pauley Pavilion. Michigan has lost twice, but both times were as favorites and one of them was by just three points. The other was their first "true" road game (at South Carolina), but I believe John Beilein will have his Wolverines "ready to go" Saturday night in primetime.

Michigan is coming off a 53-50 win over Texas in Ann Arbor on Tuesday. They were 10-pt faves there, which shows how much the market was respecting them. Curiously, this Wolverines team is nowhere near as sharp-shooting as past Beilein editions. I can assure you this is not a misprint, but the Maize and Blue were an all-time horrific 19.2% from the floor against South Carolina, which explains that loss. They shot only 41.2% against Texas, which was their next lowest shooting percentage to date. The team is shooting just 34.9% from three-point range, which would be the lowest percentage for any Wolverines team since 2009-10. I expect these shooting numbers to drastically improve moving forward as almost 45% of their total attempts from the field are from behind the arc. Sooner rather than later, those shots will start to go down. 

Meanwhile, UCLA is due to regress as they're currently hitting an unsustainable 45.4% from three-point range. The win over Kentucky was not w/o some ugliness as Lonzo Ball was just 2 of 8 from behind the arc and committed five turnovers in the first half. With six straight covers, the last one being an outright win as 10.5-point pups, it's only natural for the oddsmakers to have the Bruins overvalued coming into this tilt. Michigan is dangerous as a dog, a role they have yet to find themselves this season, until now. 8* Michigan

10* Georgetown (2:00 ET): This game is being contested in Miami, FL as part of the Hoophall Invitational. For LaSalle, it's their second straight Big East opponent. In non-tourney action, they took on city (Philly) rival Villanova Tuesday and actually played the #1 team in the nation pretty tough, losing only 89-79 as 17.5-pt dogs. Coming off a high-profile game such as that, Georgetown may not have the Explorers' full attention and that could prove problematic. With a shaky ATS mark already, the Hoyas barely escaped Elon (won by 3) their last game. But that was on Sunday and I figure JTIII will have his team very focused for this neutral site affair. Lay the short number here.

Thus far, G'town has covered only one game, a 65-61 upset of Oregon (were +9) on 11.21. They've been big money-burners when favored, going 0-4 ATS including early season losses at home to both Maryland and Arkansas State. At one point, they stood at only 2-4 SU, but the team has since rattled off three consecutive victories. The disappointing records - SU and ATS - have led to a bit of a reevaluation in the marketplace and right now I believe it to be a great time to "buy low" on them. One thing that the Hoyas do well is defend the three-point line as opponents are shooting only 30.6% from distance against them this year. That's key facing a LaSalle squad that's currently making an unsustainable 41.6% from behind the arc.

LaSalle played Villanova very tough on Tuesday and you have to wonder what they'll have left in the tank here. A flurry of late three-pointers had them down only four, which was also the halftime deficit, late in the game. But the Explorers eventually wilted and lost by 10. While this team can certainly score, I'd be concerned about a defense which is permitting 80.4 PPG on 48.7% shooting. Opponents are making almost 40% of their three-point tries against LaSalle. Georgetown unexpectedly struggled in its last game on the glass, but w/ Isaac Copeland now back in the fold, I see them dominating that department here against the Explorers. The five days off should do the Hoyas some good and I'll point out that they've gone 31-2 straight up under Thompson vs. opponents giving up 77+ points per game. 10* Georgetown

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Mavs fall from grace has been rather precipitous, but I'm not sure they should be catching this many points at home against a subpar foe like Indiana. Yes, Dallas has the worst record in the league (4-17 SU) and are 29th in offensive efficiency. But they've at least been competitive here at home, losing by an average of just 5.4 PPG thus far. As you might have guessed though, this is more a play AGAINST the Pacers, who are just 3-7 SU and ATS on the road and not really worthy of being favored. Sure, Indiana is coming off a blowout win at Phoenix Wednesday night, but this will be their fifth straight road game and fourth in six nights. Dallas, theoretically, should be highly motivated after being humiliated here at home by Sacramento on Wednesday. Take the points.

Making this line all the more curious is the fact that Indiana was favored by only 5.5 earlier in the year over the Mavs and that was at home. Granted, they won and Dallas has fallen harder and faster than even the biggest pessimist would have thought. But still, this looks like an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. That first meeting was actually the season opener for both teams and it went to overtime. Dallas put up an unconscionable 48 three-pointers in the contest, but Indiana was far more efficient from behind the arc, hitting 10 of 18. I do not envision the Pacers matching that kind of shooting as they were also better than 50% overall from the field. For the year, they are shooting just 45.5% from the field and 34.4% from three-point range. The Pacers, like the Mavs, are in the bottom third in the league in offensive efficiency.

The Pacers poor defense will also serve to help Dallas here. On the road, the Pacers are giving up a horrible 115.7 PPG. Some of that was them getting torched for 142 by Golden State on Monday. But they also allowed 131 to Portland last week. While this is the Pacers' fifth consecutive road game, it is the Mavs' fourth consecutive home game. So the situation definitely favors them. Again, this team was embarrassed here two night ago and I can only assume they'll be eager to atone for it. 10* Dallas

10* Over Blue Jackets/Red Wings (7:30 ET): Last year was a bit of a disaster in C-bus, but the team has bounced back nicely so far in 2016 as they have 34 points, which is three off the pace in the very competitive Metropolitan Division. They've gone 7-1-2 the L10 games, including four consecutive victories, and have the second best goal differential (+24) in the league, trailing only the Rangers. A clear cut case could be made that they are tad bit undervalued for this road date w/ Detroit, but I feel the better bet is on the Over as both teams have been scoring in abundance of late.

Columbus comes in having scored 15 goals during their four-game win streak. They've scored at least three in every game. Admittedly, the competition was less than stellar the L3 games as they've gotten to play Colorado and then Arizona twice. But given the number of shots we've seen from this team all season long (31.0 per game), particularly of late (41.2 L5 games!), it's safe to say Detroit goaltender Petr Mrazek is likely to be under siege, especially w/ the Red Wings giving up an average of 34.0 shots the L5 games. Mrazek has looked good of late (.933 save percentage L4 starts), but that's also well above his season average (.908). So, I'd expect him to start regressing back to his average sooner rather than later. The Over is 10-4 in all Mrazek starts this season.

Not to be outdone, the Red Wings have scored four times each in B2B wins over Pittsburgh and Winnipeg. They've scored 11 goals in the L3 games, all Overs. While they may not average the same # of shots Columbus does, they have been at 30 or more each of those L3 games. Mrazek was also in goal for each of the last two games and allowed three goals both times. Both were 4-3 games that went into extra time. Not only is Columbus third in the league in goals per game; they have the top ranked power play (24.6 percent). So don't be surprised if special teams aid in this one going Over the total. 10* Over Blue Jackets/Red Wings

8* Longwood (7:30 ET): Sure, Longwood is not even one of the top 325 teams in America? Do you even know what conference they hail from? (Answer: Big South). Do you even know their nickname>? (Answer: Lancers). The answers to those questions are actually quite irrelevant because this is just a horrible spot for still unbeaten Creighton. The Blue Jays are just two days removed from an in-state tussle w/ Nebraska where they clearly brought their 'A-Game.' Of course, Nebraska really did not as the 'Huskers shot just 32.4% from the floor in the 77-62 final (Creighton was favored by four). Will Longwood win this game? Obviously not. But this is an absolute boatload of points to take going against what should be a very disinterested favorite.

Longwood rarely plays a lined game, but they have one under their belt in 2016. As 18-point underdogs, they ended up covering @ SF Austin, losing by only six. Obviously this is a big step up in class here, but the Lancers have generally been competitive. Their only "bad" loss came by 22 at home to Maine, which was the season opener. They are coming off a loss to a previously winless James Madison team last Saturday, but I imagine the players will be very excited to take on this challenge. This is their first time playing a ranked opponent since Georgetown in 2012. They have three double-digit scorers, led by Darrion Allen (15.7 PPG). No matter how "outgunned" you may think Longwood is here, I guarantee they shoot the ball better than Nebraska did on Wednesday. The Cornhuskers missed 19 of 22 three-point attempts, for crying out loud!

Creighton has an eight-day break after this game, so don't be shocked if they're already peeking ahead to that. There has been only one time in the L3 seasons that the Blue Jays have been asked to lay more than 30 points at the betting window and not surprisingly, they failed to cover the spot. This is just an insane spread, regardless of matchup, and I keep coming back to the fact this is their second game in three days and clearly the less interesting of the two. Total letdown game for Creighton, who will not be interested in winning by the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for. 8* Longwood

9* Washington (7:05 ET): The Capitals won the President's Trophy last season (120 points) by a comfortable margin. But this year, they currently rank only fifth in their own division as the Metro is proving to be quite competitive. It is home to my top two ranked teams in the league, the Rangers and Columbus, not to mention LY's Stanley Cup Champions (Pittsburgh) plus the current hottest team in the league (Philadelphia). So, what I'm saying here is that the Caps can't afford to be dropping games, especially ones like tonight when they are facing a lowly foe like the Sabres. Buffalo, for all its supposed improvement, still is ranked last by me in the Eastern Conference pecking order. With them off a win, it's a good time to fade.

This will actually be the second meeting this week between these two. The first took place on Monday in the Nation's Capital w/ the Caps prevailing 3-2. It was an overtime game that saw the home team tie things up late in regulation. It was their second win over Buffalo this season as the Caps are now 6-2 SU head to head over the L3 seasons. Both teams followed that game up w/ 4-3 wins, Washington over Boston and Buffalo over Edmonton. The Caps actually led the Bruins 3-0, but needed extra time to get the two points. The Sabres also needed OT to get by the Oilers in what was a much hyped affair w/ Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel grabbing the headlines. Already just 1-3 SU after scoring 4+ goals in their previous game, I'd worry about how the Sabres are likely to perform coming off such a high-profile win.

I give Washington a big edge between the pipes here. They rank 5th in goals against in the league w/ Braden Holtby owning a .923 save percentage and 2.18 goals against average. He made 31 saves in the win Monday over the Sabres. Holtby has actually been a little sharper on the road (.930) this year. Buffalo, keep in mind is dead last in the league in scoring (2.1 goals per game) and having the 29th ranked penalty kill (75.6%) certainly won't help their cause. I'm banking on the Caps' power play breaking through here. 9* Washington

10* UT-Arlington (10:00 ET): The number of unbeatens in College Basketball was reduced to nine last night w/ both Butler & TCU losing. Of the nine remaining, #1 Villanova (defending Nat'l Champs) is clearly the strongest. After the Wildcats, we find a group of teams that likely fall between the 10th and 20th best teams in the country right now. One of them is St. Mary's. Unbeaten starts are nothing new for the Gaels; last year the team also started 6-0 SU. But then they lost their next game at Cal. For the record, it should be pointed out that SMU has played the fewest # of games of any remaining unbeaten. Tonight, they host a worthy adversary in UT-Arlington, who happens to be one of the top mid-majors in the country. Take the points.

The Mavericks of UT-Arlington are a formidable foe here as they have already won outright at Texas, as 7.5-pt underdogs, back on 11.29. The preseason choice to win the Sun Belt, UT Arlington has thrived in the underdog role through the years, going 44-22 ATS including 16-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Already they're 3-1 ATS this year w/ not only the outright win at Texas, but also at Fordham as well. They also covered a game at Arkansas. So don't look for the team to be intimidated at all by playing the #12 ranked team in the country. This is already the Mavs' seventh road game and the start of their third three-game trip. So they're battle tested. Be on the lookout for SBC Player of the Year Kevin Hervey, who is averaging 13.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.

While UT Arlington just played two nights ago and St. Mary's has been off since 11.30, I do not see that being a significant edge for the favorite here. It's not as if UT Arlington was tested on Tuesday; they won by 50 over a D-III school (Texas-Dallas). Also, don't be surprised if St. Mary's is perhaps a bit rusty coming off the week-plus break. This is just the second time in the last three seasons that they've had 7+ days off between games and they failed to cover in the only previous instance. While the Gaels have already beaten the likes of Dayton and Stanford, a case can be made that UT Arlington is on par w/ those teams. Yet they're getting a far more generous spread. 10* UT Arlington

10* Portland (8:05 ET): The Blazers have been a massive disappointment this season, particularly on the defensive end. They currently rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up almost 1.1 points per possession. Last night saw their 3-0 SU/ATS win streak halted as they allowed 115 points in Milwaukee. But tonight, they take on a Grizzlies team that's not known for scoring in bunches and is playing w/o Mike Conley. While the Grizz have yet to lose since their starting PG went down, they've been fortunate to draw some pretty weak opponents. Orlando, the Lakers, New Orleans and Philadelphia were the last four opponents and all four wins have been by five points or less. I like Portland here.

"We're not a very good team right now" is what HC Terry Stotts had to say about the Blazers following last night's loss in Milwaukee. Things really came apart in the second half as they allowed the Bucks to score 64 points. For the game, Milwaukee shot nearly 52% from the floor and was 10 of 24 from three-point range. That performance came on the heels of some improved defensive efforts against Indiana, Miami and Chicago. Fortunately for Portland here, Memphis is short-handed and I believe simply lacks the capability to exploit the defensive shortcomings. In addition to being w/o Conley, the Grizzlies don't have Chandler Parsons, James Ennis, Vince Carter and Brandan Wright. Zach Randolph is set to return tonight, but that's still a lot of missing pieces for one team to deal with.

Portland has already beat Memphis once this year, here at the FedEx Forum, and that was when Conley was playing. What I want to specifically point to there is that it was one of the Blazers' best defensive efforts of the season. They won 100-94 by holding the Grizzlies to just 38.3% shooting overall including 6 of 26 from three-point range. If they can beat Memphis at full strength, then they should be able to beat them here. I believe that the Grizz simply lacks the firepower to keep up w/ Portland right now. They are averaging only 95.5 PPG at home this season. 10* Portland

10* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): The Penguins have surged into first place in the very competitive Metro thanks to three consecutive victories, the last one being an 8-5 destruction of Ottawa. Currently #2 in goals scored per game, the Pens have had no issue finding the back of the net during the win streak, tallying 19 goals total. Tonight, they face a wounded Florida team that has lost three in a row and five of its last six. All six of those games took place on the road, but I don't think a return home will do the Panthers much good against this caliber of opponent. Over its last five games, Pittsburgh is averaging an incredible 41 shots per game. Regardless of whom is in goal, this shapes up as another win for the Pens.

This will be the first home game for new Panthers HC Tom Rowe. Since taking over, the team has won only once in five tries, though they have grabbed the ol "loser's point" in three of the four losses. That includes Tuesday's painful setback where the Flyers got the GW goal w/ just 8.6 seconds remaining in regulation. Honestly, I'm a little unclear on what this organization is doing. Last year, the Panthers set a franchise record for wins and points. But they've changed both the GM and coach from that team. The result has been a pretty pedestrian start that has the team outside the top eight. They are 26th in goals scored per game and 29th on the power play, so it's going to be difficult here to keep up w/ the high-flying Penguins. Right winger Jonanthan Marchessault is also out.

The Pens already beat the Panthers once this year, at home, 3-2. They did so w/ both teams managing only 22 shots. I expect Florida goaltender Roberto Luongo to be under siege a lot more here considering the frequency with which we've seen Pittsburgh put the puck on net lately. They had 46 shots on goal in the 8-5 win over Ottawa on Monday, the second time in the L3 games that they topped 40. In fact, they've registered 40+ shots on goal seven different times this year, six of those coming in the last month. There have been only two times all season that the Pens have taken the ice w/ more than two days rest and they won both times. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Under Nuggets/Wizards (7:05 ET): I think that by any objective measure, you would have to qualify both of these teams as being major disappointments this season. Denver, in the middle of a six-game road trip, just lost at lowly Brooklyn last night. They are just 8-14 on the season while being outscored by 4.2 points per 100 possessions, which would place them at 25th in the rankings. Not far ahead would be Washington, who lost here at home to Orlando two nights ago, despite John Wall scoring 52 points. I had the Over in that game and Over it went (by 40 points!), but tonight I'm going the other way as I feel the Nuggets could be tired and the Wizards should see decreases in scoring - on both ends - from their last game. This number just seems too high. Take the Under.

The last four times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. But the number here is several points higher than it was for either of LY's meetings. Washington has also gone Over in four straight, but this qualifies as one of their highest O/U lines of the year. I found only two that were higher (vs. Houston, Phoenix) and both of those stayed Under. As for Denver, last night's loss to the Nets was a 116-111 final, so clearly that had an impact on the number here as well. Interestingly enough, the Nuggets shot only 40% from the field in Brooklyn. They did make 11 three-pointers, however. There was also a combined 41 free throws made in the contest between the two teams. While an optimist would like to call for better shooting from the Nuggets tonight, the fact is they are shooting only 42.5% from the field away from home for the season.

Wall is clearly unlikely to match his offensive production from the last game. Outside of Wall, the rest of the Wizards didn't do much Tuesday as they combined for just 64 total points on 26 of 62 shooting (42%). Meanwhile, I can't imagine the defense being as horrendous here as it was vs. Orlando where they allowed the Magic to score a season-high in points (124) on better than 51% shooting. Both coaches, I expect, will place an emphasis on the defensive end of the floor for this matchup. The Under is 4-0 this season in Washington home games when the total is 210 or higher. 8* Under Nuggets/Wizards

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): While the season is still relatively young, the Oilers have undoubtedly been one of the real "positive" stories. A franchise that hasn't done anything in decades finds itself atop the admittedly pretty pedestrian Pacific Division w/ 32 points. But just to illustrate how weak the Pacific is, tonight's opponent (Philadelphia) has 33 points and that has them only tied for fourth in the far more competitive Metro. Since starting the season 7-1, the Oilers are just 7-9-4 since and that includes B2B OT losses to Minnesota and Buffalo coming into tonight. Meanwhile, the Flyers happen to be the hottest team in the league right now w/ six straight victories. They're on home ice tonight and I like them to keep it going.

The Flyers are known for offense, but during this six-game win streak we've seen some pretty outstanding goaltending. Almost all the credit goes to Steve Mason, who has been in goal each of the L5 games and allowed an average of just 1.8 gpg. His save percentage in the last four outings is .944. He made 42 saves in Tuesday's OT win over Florida. This is a pretty remarkable turnaround for a team that ranks 26th in goals allowed for the year, but truth be told, much of that blame can be placed on Michael Neuvirth, who hasn't seen the ice in over a month. Offensively, the Flyers are 4th in goals per game and 2nd on the power play. So no issues there. This is also a double revenge spot as they lost to the Oilers in both meetings last year. 

Edmonton lost the much-hyped battle of McDavid vs. Eichel on Tuesday, falling 4-3 in Buffalo. They gave up the lead late in regulation and then lost in OT short-handed. As stated earlier, it was their second straight loss, not to mention fifth in the last seven games. Cam Talbot is your likely starter in goal tonight and he's been a disaster recently w/ an .867 save percentage his L4 games. Not only that, but he's struggled against Eastern Conference competition all year w/ only an .885 save percentage. Generally speaking, the few road wins that the Oilers have over the last few weeks have all been against some of the worst teams in the league. That's not Philly. 8* Philadelphia

8* Anaheim (10:35 ET): Carolina managed to win its last time out, 1-0 over Tampa Bay, but that was on home ice. They hit the West Coast tonight having dropped five of seven overall and are tied for the fewest number of points in the Metro (25). The Canes have hardly been "road warriors" this year; they've dropped 12 of 15 away games overall and while five of those losses have occurred in extra time, the fact remains this team has won just once on the road (at Toronto) in the last month. Meanwhile, playing in the far weaker Pacific Division, Anaheim is in far better standing as they are tied for fourth and just three points back of first place. They've already beaten Carolina once this year, on the road, and will do so again tonight.

The Ducks should obviously be eager to atone for their awful performance the last time we saw them. Sunday in Calgary, they lost 8-3, in what will undoubtedly go down as their worst effort of the season. Note that it was the second game of a back to back as they had dropped a tough one in Edmonton (in OT) the night prior. Backup goaltender Jonathan Bernier had a disastrous night vs. the Flames, allowing all eight goals on just 25 shots. Fortunately for us, John Gibson is expected back between the pipes tonight. Gibson sports a .936 save percentage his L4 starts and only missed Sunday's game due to the flu. If for some reason he doesn't go tonight, note that Bernier had been playing quite well this year, prior to Sunday. Bottom line is that with two days off, I expect a very strong effort from the Ducks here.

Carolina is still without Jordan Staal (concussion) and this is an offense that is really struggling. The 'Canes have scored a total of just seven goals in their last five road games and are second from the bottom in goals per game in the entire Eastern Conference. That has to music to the ears of the Anaheim goaltenders. Furthermore, Carolina is 0 for 9 this season in road games when the total is 5.0. Speaking of goaltending, the 'Canes still rank pretty low in save percentage, despite the surprising shutout of Tampa Bay on Sunday. Cam Ward is their best option, but even he allowed three goals on just 26 shots in the season's first meeting. 8* Anaheim

8* Nebraska (9:00 ET): In-state bragging rights are on the line here and it's the bigger state school that finds itself in the role of home underdog for this one. While one could argue that this game "means more" to unbeaten Creighton, don't discount Nebraska's motivation in this one. Sure, the folks in Lincoln may still be more concerned with the Music City Bowl vs. Tennessee later this month. But for those inside Pinnacle Bank Arena tonight, this game looms large. Creighton is #10 in the nation and as I said earlier, still unbeaten (one of 11 remaining unbeatens in the country). The Blue Jays have had the Cornhuskers' number through the years, going 15-5 ATS, including B2B double digit wins. But I'm calling for a different end to the story tonight. Take the points. 

This will be Creighton's first "true" road game of the season. Granted, they don't have to go far, but it's still a hostile environment. I cannot possibly see the Bluejays' hot shooting continuing, at least at the current clip. They've shot 50% or better in every game so far and average 90.2 PPG. But the first true road game seems like a good spot for that average to dip and Nebraska is allowing only 62.5 PPG thus far, on 39.3 percent shooting. Here at home, the scoring average dips down to 53.5 PPG. Last year in Omaha, Creighton attempted 21 more free throws while the 'Huskers shot just 4 of 21 from downtown (three-point range) and that was the difference.

Nebraska has definitely challenged itself this year as they played UCLA, the current #2 team in the land, and Virginia Tech. Not to mention, they had to go to Clemson as a part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge and came up just two points short there. That's three top 40 opponents away from home thus far. Creighton did beat Wisconsin early in the year, but that's their only top 60 opponent to date. Shockingly, the Bluejays are only 7-18 SU in "true" road games the previous two seasons. 8* Nebraska

8* Over Cavaliers/Knicks (8:05 ET): After playing the Knicks Over last night (and winning), I'll do the same here as they face a Cleveland team that should easily exploit their defensive shortcomings. New York's already woeful defensive efficiency rating (1.07 pts per possession) certainly didn't improve after last night's showing, where they allowed 103 pts to a Miami team not exactly known for lighting up the scoreboard. The Cavs come in sporting the 4th most efficient offensive in the game and are averaging 110.3 points per game this year. They should have no problems scoring here and even better is the fact that Cavs' defensive numbers have been far from impressive this year. That makes this an easy Over call.

The Cavs won't have JR Smith tonight or for the foreseeable future, but I don't see the team having much difficulty scoring here w/ LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love leading the way. High totals have not bothered the World Champs as the Over is 6-2 this season for them when the O/U is 210+. With three consecutive losses, there was a little bit of panic going on in Cleveland, but the team turned in a strong effort Monday night in Toronto, scoring 116 pts in a key road win. James scored a season-high w/ 34 pts, Love had his 13th double double (28-14) and for a 10th straight game, Irving scored at least 20. Again, the Cavs should have no problems at all scoring on a Knicks team that is 27th in defensive efficiency. 

I'd be inclined to call for a Cleveland rout here, but their lack of defense has been troubling. Over the L5 games, they've allowed an average of 112.4 PPG. The Knicks may give up plenty of points, but they can score as well as is evident by the fact they've topped 100 pts in 11 consecutive games now. Only once during those 11 games have they NOT allowed more than 100 as well. I cashed the Over (barely) when these teams met on Opening Night, the result of which was a 117-88 Cleveland win and cover. I'll call for the Knicks to score a lot more tonight. Prior to Opening Night, the Under had cashed seven straight times between these two, so it's "high time" we see a reversal of that trend. 8* Over Cavaliers/Knicks

10* SMU (8:00 ET): There are still 11 unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball and four of them are in action tonight. Perhaps the weakest of those 11 is TCU, who is actually an underdog this evening at in-state rival SMU. Despite a 16-5 ATS record vs. the Ponies, the underdog distinction is absolutely justified here for the Horned Frogs. This is a team that hardly cracks the top 50 in most rating systems, including my own. They'll be playing a "true" road game for only the second time all year (won close over UNLV back on 11.25). SMU has won 37 of its past 40 home games overall and has taken on the far more challenging schedule to date compared to their Texas brethren. Lay the points in this one as TCU will be handed its first loss of the season.

SMU has started December w/ a pair of cupcake games, beating CS-Bakersfield and Delaware State here in Dallas. Against the former, they did not shoot the ball well at all, in fact they finished the game at just 31.8% from the field. But they allowed only 43 points on 29.8% shooting, then had far less difficulty w/ Delaware State on Sunday. This will obviously be a stiffer test tonight, but getting the game here at Moody Coliseum is huge. They've won 19 straight here over non-conference competition. Four different Mustangs are averaging double figures in scoring and this team also boasts the 6th best rebounding margin in the country. They did beat TCU LY in Ft. Worth, 75-70, albeit failing to cover as 6.5-pt chalk. But a shorter number at home seems like a real bargain to me.

I'm just not a buyer on this TCU team as they've yet to play anyone of real substance. Sure, they did beat Washington twice, but the Huskies hardly crack the top 90 teams nationally. Their toughest opponent to date may very well have been Illinois State. Meanwhile, SMU has taken on the likes of Pitt, Michigan, USC and Boise State, all away from home. Even w/ the win at UNLV, the Horned Frogs are still a lousy 3-18 SU last 21 "true" road games. We've seen similar starts from this program before, only for things to unravel once the conference portion of the schedule hits. Once again, TCU's weak non-conference slate isn't fooling me. 10* SMU

10* Under Avalanche/Predators (8:05 ET): The Avs come into this game as losers of five in a row and have given up a ton of goals in the process. It's 20 to be exact, an average of 4.0 per game. Obviously, a team won't be very successful allowing that number. Truth be told, Semyon Varlamov hasn't been as good as backup Calvin Pickard between the pipes. But Varlamov does have a .921 save percentage his L4 starts and if he can continue to improve, his team will have a shot tonight in Nashville. Although, that being said, the Preds have dominated teams at Bridgestone Arena this year, outscoring visitors by 1.5 goals per game. They allow just 1.9 gpg here, so the nine they've allowed the L2 games is definitely a major surprise. I'll call for things to "return to normal" here, however. Take the Under.

Colorado comes into tonight having scored the fewest number of goals in the league. This is clearly a problem for them. They were shutout in the last game, 3-0, by a Dallas team that ranks dead last in goals allowed per game and 29th in save percentage. That's not good. In two games this year vs. Nashville, both at home, they have scored a total of four goals. The Under is 6-1 for them this year in road games where the total is 5.5.

Both prior meetings this year went Over the total w/ Nashville scoring five times in both wins. Both Varlamov and Pickard started for Colorado. Averaging 38 shots really aided the Preds in winning those two games. But as long as the Avs can limit the Preds here, I have no doubt that the Under can come in. Pekka Rinne is starting in goal tonight for Nashville and he has a .939 save percentage at home. Given Colorado's trouble scoring goals this year, Rinne should shut them down quite easily. Thus, it's up to Varlamov to handle his "end of the bargain."  The Preds' defensive numbers here at home were even better prior to the third period against the Devils on Saturday where they allowed three third period goals and lost in OT. Prior to that, they'd allowed just 14 goals in 10 home games and the penalty kill had been perfect. 10* Under Avalanche/Predators

10* Over Knicks/Heat (7:35 ET): The Knicks are clear overachievers in my book as they are two games above .500 despite being outscored by 2.7 pts per 100 possessions. Their record is owed to a 6-1 mark vs. teams below .500 and a 3-0 mark in games decided by three points or less. So regression should be in the cards, sooner or later. However, I'm not sure about tonight as they are facing a Heat team that's below .500 and really struggling. What I am sure about, however, is the fact the Knicks stink defensively. They are 27th in efficiency, giving up 1.07 points per possession. Meanwhile, Miami is also slipping on that end of the court as they've allowed 110 or more points three times in the last five games. Take the Over here. 

Totals for recent Heat games have been all over the map, largely dependent on the opponent that they have played. Last time out, they ended up playing a low-scoring game w/ Portland, a game that had a very high total. While it's a bit concerning they were only able to score 92 points against the worst defensive team in the league, the opposite could be said for the team's previous game where they scored 111 against a very good Utah defense. That game sailed Over a low total. This one is in the middle and I think it's safe to say the Knicks should shoot better than Portland did on Saturday. The Blazers, despite winning, shot only 40.4% from the floor. Meanwhile, the Heat will shoot better than the Knicks previous opponent (Sacramento) did. The Kings finished a horrific 32.3% from the field.

Though the Knicks limited Sacramento to only 32.3% shooting, note that DeMarcus Cousins still had a big game w/ 36 points and 12 rebounds. That followed Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns going for 47 points and 18 rebounds against them. Miami has a strong post player in Hassan Whiteside, who averages 17.8 points, 14.9 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game, so look for a big night from him. The Under was 4-0 in the four meetings last year between these old rivals, but those were two very different teams. Miami isn't nearly as strong defensively. The Knicks have scored 100+ points in ten consecutive games and w/ their own defensive ineptitude, this one should sail Over the number. 10* Over Knicks/Heat