10* Over Marlins/Phillies (6:05 ET): There isn't much that the Marlins are very good at, but scoring runs is perhaps their weakest area. Through 25 games, they have scored a grand total of 68 runs. That's easily the fewest in all of baseball. Things have gotten especially dire of late with them being held to three runs or fewer 9 times in the last 10 games. Take out a 9-run effort vs. Washington on 4/20 and they've been held to 13 runs - total (!) - in the other nine games. They've been shutout FIVE times in that stretch, including last night, 4-0 by Philadelphia. 

Going against Jake Arrieta tonight, the Miami hiitters probably aren't feeling too good about their collective or individual prospects. Arrieta is back to pitching at an All-Star Level in 2019, posting a 2.65 ERA and 1.147 WHIP. He's been quite consistent too; though last time out saw him allow a season-high four runs (three earned) in six innings against the Mets. Now that was the Mets' second time seeing him. But tonight will also be the second time Miami has faced Arrieta this year. The first, as you may have guessed, did not go well. Arrieta allowed just one run over 7 IP w/ 8 K's. The Phillies won the game 9-1. 

That game showed the Phillies can send a game Over the total w/o much, if any, help from the Marlins. I'm banking on that being the case again here. The Over is 7-3 the L10 times Miami has faced a starter w/ a WHIP below 1.15. Now the Phillies' offense has been pretty dormant of late too; scoring 1 or 0 runs in four of the last six games. But expect them to wake up today against embattled Miami starter Trevor Richards. Now Richards hasn't pitched poorly per se. But he has an 0-5 TSR and has definitely been shaky his L2 times out. After allowing a season-worst five runs to the Cubs on April 15th, he gave up two HR's to Washington his last time out. The Over is 6-0-2 the L8 times Richards has started against a team w/ a winning record. 10* Over Marlins/Phillies

10* Under Warriors/Clippers (10:05 ET): Only two 1st round series are still going and who would have thought the Warriors would be in one of them. The three-time NBA champs came into this series w/ the Clippers as overwhelming favorites. In fact, the Clips were the biggest 1st round underdogs (in terms of odds) that we'd ever tracked. But they've managed to win twice at Golden State, including a shockingly great performance in Game 5 where they won 129-121 as 14.5-pt underdogs. The Over is now 12-4 the L16 meetings, but not this one. Take the Under.

The Clippers shot 54.1% from the field in Game 5, just the second time they've been above 50% in the series. The other was Game 2, their other win (not coincidentally), and they followed up that performance by shooting a series worst 37.2% in Game 3. (Funny how that works). Actually, the Clippers have shot 42.5% or worse from the field in all three losses in the series. The Under is 11-4 the last 15 times Golden State has allowed 125+ pts in the last game and they are 24-9-1 off their previous 34 straight up losses (17-9 this season). 

Even though they're now heading home, the Clippers figure to see an offensive decline in this game (compared to Game 5). Golden State, not surprisingly averages slightly fewer PPG on the road than at home. But what is surprising is that they also give up fewer PPG on the road. The first two games of the series here in LA saw them yield just 105 pts (both games). I expect a much better defensive performance in this game from the Warriors. Their three wins in the series have seen them allow 105, 105 and 104 points. While three of the five games have gone Over, this total is too high. 10* Under Warriors/Clippers 

analysis soon

10* Carolina (7:08 ET): I'm going to be putting "my foot down" (so to speak) in this series as I firmly believe Carolina is the better team here. Yes, they come in off a grueling 7-game series w/ Washington while the Islanders had a shockingly easy go of it in the 1st round, sweeping Pittsburgh. But that same "situational disadvantage" had little impact on the Bruins last night, though they were skating at home. Still, I lean on the fact the Hurricanes lead the league in Corsi For %, while the Isles rank a poor 27th in that key metric. Just like they did vs. the Capitals, I expect Carolina to control the puck in this series. I'm calling for a Game 1 "upset." 

The Islanders' transformation under HC Barry Trotz (who led Washington to the Stanley Cup LY) has been stunning. Last year's team gave up the most goals in league history over an 82-game season. This year's team allowed the fewest number of goals in the entire league! Goalie Robin Lehner held the Penguins to just six goals in four games. But I expect puck possession to play a vital role in this series. The bottom line is that no team is better in that department than Carolina. Lehner is going to face more shots than usual in this series. Carolina led the league in both shots per game and shot differential in the regular season. 

While there is some concern about the Hurricanes being only 48 hrs removed from a Game 7 (on the road) that required double overtime, the old issue of "rust" may very well apply here to the Islanders. They haven't played in 10 days. The Isles are just 2-5 SU this season when taking the ice on 3+ days rest. Despite more than doubling up Pittsburgh in goals scored in Round 1, the Islanders were outshot in the series. That catches up with them in Round 2 in what is a bad matchup (for them). Carolina has now won 34 of its last 51 games. 10* Carolina

10* Under Padres/Nationals (7:05 ET): I expected more from the ballclub out of D.C. at the start of the season. Right now, the Nats are a game below .500 and in 4th place in the NL East. The good news though is that no one in the division is pulling away. I think this series is going to go well for them, however. However, for tonight's opener, I'm a little leery about laying the juice, even w/ Max Scherzer on the bump. That's because San Diego's starter Matt Strahm also happens to have strong numbers in spite of a losing record. Thus, Under is the call for Friday as runs should be few and far between in this matchup. 

Scherzer has a 4.45 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in five starts. Those numbers are higher than what we're used to seeing from him. But at home, Scherzer has a 2.61 ERA and 1.016 WHIP. That's more like it. Yet the Nats have somehow managed to go 0-3 w/ him on the mound at home. If you think this has to be due to a lack of offense, well, you'd be correct. The Nats have scored just five runs in those three Scherzer starts. They've scored three runs or fewer for him in all but one start this year. It was a rough outing last time out in Miami, but Scherzer still has a 44-5 KW ratio this year and a 2.34 career ERA vs. San Diego w/ 85 strikeouts in 57 2/3 IP.

The Nationals are missing some key pieces from their lineup, so that makes the job easier for Padres starter Strahm. Based on how he pitched his last time out, Strahm may not even need the help. He went eight innings vs. Cincinnati and gave up just one run on two hits. That followed a strong effort of five scoreless innings vs. Arizona. Since struggling in his first start Stahm has a 1.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP his last three. Five of San Diego's last six games have stayed Under the total. It would be nice if Washington could have the lead heading into the ninth here as we could then avoid needing the final three outs (not play the bottom of the 9th). That certainly could be the case. 10* Under Padres/Nationals

10* San Antonio (8:05 ET): I am 3-0 in this series and have won three different ways. In Game 5, it was the Under. Game 2, it was the Over and going all the way back to Game 1, I was on the Spurs. Since pulling the outright upset in Game 1, San Antonio has lost three of four and that's too bad considering they probably should have been up three games to none going into Game 4. But they will likely end up "ruing the day" they blew a double digit 4th quarter lead in Game 2. That cost them the chance of taking the first two games in Denver and a shot at advancing here.

I still think the Spurs were clearly the better team in the first four games, however. They held a double digit lead in all four games. They were clearly NOT the better team in Game 5 though as they got blown out by the Nuggets, 108-90, in Denver. But again, that was on the road. Coming into this series, home court advantage figured to play a significant role. Denver is now 36-8 SU in all home games this season while San Antonio is 33-10 SU. Both teams have losing records on the road. In the regular season, no team had a wider split between home and road victories than these two. The Spurs were #1 w/ 16 more wins at home than on the road while the Nuggets weren't far behind (+14). 

Game 6 is in San Antonio, so you can probably guess where I'm heading here. To go back to my analysis from Game 1, I think the Nuggets are a pretty shaky #2 seed. They were definitely aided by a lucky 7-0 SU mark in games decided by three points or less during the regular season. Also, their YTD point differential was just 5th best in the Western Conference. Net efficiency rating was just 6th and only slightly better than the Spurs, who won six less games. I say we're heading back to Denver for a Game 7. The Spurs are 10-1 ATS this season in home games when playing w/ revenge for a double digit loss on the road. 10* San Antonio

10* Under Blue Jackets/Bruins (7:05 ET): Columbus shocked the world in Round 1 by sweeping the 62-win Lightning. It wasn't just that the Blue Jackets advanced though; it was how. A 4-game sweep of a team that had outscored them 17-3 in the regular season and set various records in the process. Meanwhile, the Bruins had a much more challenging path to the second round as they were taken a full seven games by the Maple Leafs. But the bottom line is that Boston is one of only two higher seeds that won its first round series (San Jose being the other). 

These teams went almost a full calendary year w/o facing one another. But then they faced off three times in the final month of the regular season w/ the Bruins winning twice, including an overtime game in Columbus. The two games decided in regulation were both blowouts w/ the winning side scoring at least six goals. Nine of the last 10 meetings have gone Over the total, which is a bit of a surprise considering neither team is generally regarded as an "Over squad." In fact, both teams have seen far more Unders than Overs this season. 

Boston scored 4+ goals in all four victories in the 1st round series w/ Toronto. But in the three losses, they were held to two goals or fewer (just 4 goals total). This is a tough spot for the B's w/ them coming off a 7-game series while C-bus is off a 4-game sweep. Perhaps it's a question of "rest vs. rust," but the bottom line is that I do NOT see Boston winning a high-scoring game tonight. Fortunately, they were #3 in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. The Blue Jackets somehow held the Lightning (top scoring team in the L20 years!) to just eight goals in four games. The Under is 4-0 for Boston the L4 times they've faced an opponent that scored 5+ goals in its last game. In the close out game vs. TB, the Blue Jackets won 7-3. 10* Under Blue Jackets/Bruins

10* Pittsburgh (12:15 ET): This play is very similar to Sunday's winner on the Padres in the sense that the Pirates, the home team in the series, is facing the prospect of a four-game sweep. Rarely do you see a home team get swept in a four-game series. Taking San Diego in that spot Sunday worked out for us, so I'll back the Bucs as well. It's not just the scenario though. One would have expected more from the Pirates coming into this series, given their (still) impressive pitching numbers. One of their better pitchers will be on the mound this afternoon. 

Arizona has now won 9 straight games here at PNC Park. That's pretty surprising. They've come in and outscored the Pirates 25-7 in the first three games of this series, including an 11-2 win last night. Ketel Marte homered twice, but the real key was three straight doubles (all w/ 2 outs) in the top of the 7th. This is the D'backs longest win streak in a park other than their own in franchise history. Coming into the year, I was a definite "seller" on this ballclub (as were many), thinking they'd surely regress due to an offseason that saw them say goodbye to more talent (Paul Goldschmidt) than they brought in. I still feel they are going to be a losing team here in 2019. 

The D'backs will have Zack Greinke on the bump here and he's gone 3-0 his L4 starts overall. But he still has a 5.74 ERA on the road, mostly due to a poor 1st start to the season. Pittsburgh counters w/ Jameson Taillon, who also had a less than stellar 2019 debut. But since then, he's been pretty much lights out. The Pirates have won the last two times he's pitched. In his last start, Taillon allowed just one run on four hits in five innings. That actually ended up being a "complete game" due to rain. So Taillon is also a little more "rested" than usual here. Each of those L2 starts also came on five days rest. 10* Pittsburgh

analysis soon

10* Under Jazz/Rockets (8:05 ET): Utah did its job defensively in Games 3 and 4. They held the Rockets to 61 of 165 shooting from the field, or just under 37% overall. James Harden had a terrible Game 3 (missed first 15 shots) and the entire Houston team couldn't make a three-pointer in Game 4 (missed final 13 attempts). Unfortunately for the Jazz though, they were able to win only one of the two games. Their own poor shooting has really hurt them in this series as they're making just over 40% of their total attempts. They failed to score 100 pts in either of the first two games in Houston. 

With the Rockets back at home, the conventional wisdom is going to be that they will rediscover their lost shooting touch. I'm not so sure about that. While they did score 118 and 122 points in the first two games of the series, Utah has been an elite defensive team all season. They ranked second in the league in efficiency during the regular season and were 4th in points allowed. Both Games 1 and 2 fell right on the number, so depending on your closing O/U lines, there really hasn't been a "true" Over in the series. Houston is a surprising 11-4-3 Under its L18 games.

The Under is 5-1-2 in the eight meetings this season between these teams (that's counting Games 1 and 2 as 'pushes.') Even going back to the regular season, the oddsmakers have been pretty consistent w/ their OU lines. The one exception, ironically, was the lone Over where the total was higher than normal (222.0) and the Over cashed by a single point (125-98 Rockets' win). Meanwhile, four of the five Unders have cashed by double digits. The Under is also 6-0-1 in Houston's last seven games following a SU loss. 10* Under Jazz/Rockets 

9* Carolina (7:35 ET): While there's been a very real home ice advantage so far in this series (home team is 6-0), I'm going to call for the road team to prevail here. Even though the teams have scored the same number of goals, my view is that Carolina has played better. They've outshot Washington 192-153, which is pretty substantial over a six-game sample size. 

I'm also going to again lean on the fact that the Canes are #1 in the league in Corsi For %, a key metric that actually foretold the Blue Jackets stunning 1st round upset of the Lightning. Carolina's defense has certainly frustrated the Capitals throughout the series and the 'Canes ability to get the puck on net has been a strength all season long. They were #1 in shots per game in the regular season as well as shot differential. 

An "X-factor" here is Carolina captain Justin Williams, who has an incredible history in Game 7's. He has 14 career points in Game 7's, an NHL record, with seven goals and seven assists. None of that has come w/ Carolina, but he brings not just Game 7 experience, but success, to the table. Washington goaltender Braden Holtby has a 3-4 SU career record in Game 7s. It would be easy to look at the home team being 6-0 in this series and go w/ the Caps, but my feeling is Carolina has been the better team and they steal Game 7. No repeat in the Nation's capital. 9* Carolina

10* Under Mariners/Padres (3:40 ET): Last night, I took the Padres as I said I was "unsold" on Seattle's shockingly good start to the season. The Padres won 6-3, holding the Mariners w/o a HR, which is no small feat. It was just the second game ALL YEAR that a Seattle hitter failed to hit one out of the park as they have recorded a record-setting 56 HR's in 26 games. But remember, this is a NL park, which means the loss of the designated hitter. Thus, the M's lineup is not at full strength here. Offensive regression was inevitable anyway moving forward, so Under is the call today.

Though they scored six times for me last night, it's not as if San Diego is some kind of offensive powerhouse. They came into yday averaging just 2.8 rpg at home w/ a team batting average of .220. As per usual, you can find the Padres near the bottom of the league in most major offensive categories. But on the opposite front, they have to be encouraged from what they've seen from Wednesday's starter, Chris Paddack. He has a 2.25 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in four starts. While Paddack has yet to win a decision (0-1), the team has gone 3-1 w/ him on the mound. 

There are so many signs that Seattle is going to regress that I could probably publish an e-book on it! Honestly, the regression has already started w/ them dropping 7 of the last 10 games. As I wrote yday, "This is a team I earmarked for regression in 2019 as LY's 89-win campaign was a total mirage considering the M's were actually outscored by 34 runs." The offensive numbers, particularly the # of home runs, almost HAVE to start going down. Petco Park should help take care of that. As for starter Felix Hernandez, while he's no longer "King Felix" anymore, he does have a 5-1 career record when pitching in San Diego. His ERA/WHIP are 1.63/0.775 w/ an opponents batting average of .170. This will be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Mariners/Padres

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): This is an annual Interleague rivalry, but something is different about it this year and that's both teams actually come in sporting winning records. When was the last time that happened? The Padres, who started 11-5, got back over .500 w/ a win on Sunday over Cincinnati. While that was going on, the Mariners were losing to the Angels. What's unique is that the two teams were in very different positions Sunday. The Padres were looking to avoid getting swept in a four-game series at home, and they did (I was on them!) while the Mariners were looking to finish off a four-game sweep on the road (which they failed to do). 

San Diego had lost six in a row before winning Sunday. But it also wasn't that long ago that Seattle had lost six in a row. The entirety of that losing streak came at home and I faded them a number of times during it. I am not a buyer on the Mariners' hot start. This is a team I earmarked for regression in 2019 as LY's 89-win campaign was a total mirage considering the M's were actually outscored by 34 runs. I don't think we should expect the current club's 11-2 record away from home (includes two games in Japan) to be maintained either. 

We have two rookie pitchers starting in Tuesday's opener. For Seattle, it will be Erik Swanson, who has just one start under his belt. In it, he allowed just one run and two hits in six innings (vs. Cleveland). Impressive, but not a large sample size to draw any real conclusions from. San Diego will go w/ Nick Margevicius, who has made four starts so far and the first three all saw him allow just 1 run (3 ER total allowed in 16 IP). He struggled his last time out (vs. Colorado) and while facing the power of this Mariners lineup (56 HR's in 25 games) is a little bit worrisome, don't be surprised if the Seattle offense struggles in this series (no DH). 8* San Diego

8* Under Spurs/Nuggets (9:35 ET): Of the eight 1st round series in the NBA Playoffs, this seems to be the only one where the winner is in doubt. The Spurs and Nuggets have split the first four games, putting us right back to where we started, that being Denver possessing the home court advantage. Perhaps the Nuggets should feel a little fortunate to be tied at this juncture, considering they have been down by double digits in every game. It was an early 12-point deficit that they faced in Game 4, which was erased after halftime, and they went on to cruise to a 117-103 victory in San Antonio.

But the Spurs probably should have won each of the first three games. They blew a late lead in Game 2 (here in Denver) that ultimately may prove costly. Both of these teams were much better at home compared to the road in the regular season, so Denver has to be feeling pretty good about itself right now, all things considered. They are 35-8 SU at home this year (best home record in the league) while San Antonio is just 17-26 SU on the road (worst road record of any playoff teams besides the Pistons). The Spurs are 33-10 SU at home while Denver is 21-22 SU on the road. 

The last three games in the series have all gone Over the total (Game 1 stayed Under). The Game 2 Over was my top NBA O/U play for last week. In the analysis, I'd noted all four regular season matchups between these teams were Unders. The Nuggets do play significantly better defense at home, giving up just 103.6 PPG. In this series, the Spurs have topped 105 pts just one time. Neither team is known for playing at a fast pace, so the fact we've seen three straight Overs is a little bit surprising. Call it a bit of a "market correction" from the O/U results from the regular season. The bottom line is the Under is still 11-3 in Denver's last 14 home games. The Spurs are 5-1 Under their L6 times playing on exactly two days rest. 8* Under Spurs/Nuggets

8* Brooklyn (8:05 ET): Since taking Game 1, the Nets have had a tough time in this series, especially on the defensive end. Not that they were noted as a great defensive team or anything, but they have allowed 145, 131 and 112 points the L3 games and now face elimination Tuesday night in Philadelphia. The good news is that Brooklyn is an outstanding 13-1 ATS since the start of last season if they allowed 110+ points in three straight games. Despite two double digit losses in the series, the Nets have played the Sixers tougher than you might think and I'll take the points here. 

The Nets led Game 4 at the half, 63-57. They were down only six at the half in Game 3 (lost by 16) and down just one in Game 2 (despite losing by 22). Of course, they won Game 1 outright here in Philly, 111-102 as eight-point dogs. So far in the series, they have averaged 62 PPG in the first half. So scoring has not been an issue for them, at least in the first half. The second half has been a somewhat different story, but the fact is they still are averaging 114.2 PPG for the series. Getting as many points as they are here, a similar scoring output should yield an easy ATS victory in Game 5.

I took Brooklyn in that Game 1 upset as I said I wasn't really sold on the 76ers. For a 3-seed, they have a weak YTD point differential (+2.9 per game). Joel Embiid is back and he led the way w/ 31 pts and 14 rebounds in Game 4. But the Sixers should feel a little fortunate to be up 3-1 in the series. Maybe they do end up closing things out Monday, but still take the points as I anticipate this game coming down to the wire and being much closer than anticipated. 8* Brooklyn

10* Under Giants/Blue Jays (7:05 ET): This is a National League team playing in an American League park, so the designated hitter is in play. But I'm not sure how much that helps the Giants, who are one of the weakest hitting teams in the sport and the Blue Jays aren't much better. San Francisco comes in having scored only 67 runs, the third fewest in either league. They average less than 3.0 runs/game for the year and have been held to three runs or less in four straight games and 7 out of the last 10. Toronto is hitting just .209 at home so far. Take the Under.

The Blue Jays' starting rotation appears to be in massive trouble now that Matt Shoemaker is done for the year w/ a torn ACL. The injury took place on Saturday as Shoemaker led his team to another victory. Toronto is 5-0 w/ Shoemaker on the hill this year and just 6-12 otherwise. That includes an 0-4 record w/ tonight's starter Trent Thornton pitching as he has a 5.40 ERA and 1.418 WHIP. Yet the Under is still 3-1 in those four starts, revealing how anemic the Jays' offense has been at times. They've scored three runs or less in three of Thornton's four starts. Note that Thornton had allowed just 2 runs and 5 hits in his first 10+ innings of work this season. That was against two bad offenses (Detroit, Cleveland), so I'm sure he's capable of rebounding here. San Francisco is also next to last in the NL in on base percentage. 

 The Giants have gone Under in four straight and are 14-7-2 Under on the year. Helping keep them in games is the fact they are giving up only 3.5 rpg. Their games are consistently among the lowest scoring in all of baseball. Jeff Samardzija has surprisingly given them a strong four efforts, well, with the exception of the last one (against Washington). But the first three saw Samardzija allowed just 3 ER total. Toronto comes in hot, having just swept Oakland while scoring 20 runs in three games. But they'll cool off here. 10* Under Giants/Blue Jays

10* Over Magic/Raptors (7:05 ET): This is the lone series w/o an Over so far, in fact, it's the only series where the O/U result has been the same for every game. I had the Under for both Games 1 and 3, but tried w/ the Over in Game 4 as the number was the lowest it had been for any game in the series. It looked like it would be close going into the 4th quarter, but the Magic completely fell apart down the stretch, scoring only 15 pts in the game's final 12 minutes. Toronto has held them to an average of just 91 PPG in the series, on < 40% shooting. 

Predictably then, the O/U line for Game 5 (which looks like it will be Orlando's last game of the season) is the new low for the series. I saw value in the Game 4 number, so I definitely see value here. Believe it or not, but the Magic actually shot better overall in Game 4 than they had in any of the three previous games. This despite scoring their lowest point total of the series. The problem was they were just 7 of 33 from three-point range. I'm certainly a bit surprised that Orlando has been unable to hit its season scoring average of 106.5 PPG (pretty modest number) in any game yet. But perhaps that time might be Game 5 as they have to start shooting better from three-point range. They certainly can't get any worse. 

Toronto is top tier offensive team. They average over 114 PPG. They also have not hit their YTD scoring average for any game in the series. This is a really low total for a Raptors' game. Unless it gets bet up several points, it stands to be the lowest O/U for ANY Raptors' game all season! That some serious value and while there's no denying it's been an ugly offensive series all around, these two teams are more than capable of each scoring 105 pts in the same game. The Over is 7-3 the L10 times Toronto has been off a double digit win. 10* Over Magic/Raptors 

10* Over Rockets/Jazz (10:35 ET): On a night that James Harden missed his first 15 field goal attempts, Houston still found a way to win Game 3 (104-101 as 2-pt underdogs) and put Utah on the brink of elimination. Harden scored 14 of his 22 points in a decisive fourth quarter Saturday and you have to figure he'll shoot better tonight. At the same time, Utah has only shot 40.1% as a team in the series. They're averaging just 96.3 points per game. I'm not convinced that the Jazz can stay alive, but this game will go Over the total. 

Houston is off its lowest scoring game in the series, which is primarily tied to Harden's individual effort. The Rockets average 113.9 PPG for the year and are above that number in the playoffs. With Harden a virtual lock to score more in Game 4, you can look up for the Rockets' point total to go up as well. Harden dragged down the overall shooting percentage last time out (38.4%), which was the Rockets' worst shooting game in almost a month. The last time they shot below 40% in a game, they came back and scored 112 pts the next time out.

It would appear that I had a gross misread on this series. I came in thinking Utah could compete and possibly take the series. After all, the Jazz did have the league's 4th best net efficiency rating and point differential in the regular season. But that all appears for naught now. Still, I don't anticipate the Jazz simply "rolling over" in this one. Not on their home floor, where they average a solid 112.4 PPG. Each of the first two games fell very close to the closing number, but in what very well might be the final game of the series, I'm calling for the highest scoring game of the series as well. 10* Over Rockets/Jazz 

10* Nashville (8:35 ET): It's not just shocking that the Predators dropped Game 5, it's how. For the second game in a row, they allowed five goals. This was the #3 team in goals allowed during the regular season. Game 5 saw them allow five goals on just 26 shots, the second straight shaky performance from goalie Pekka Rinne. The Preds are now in danger of being the third division champ to get bounced from these playoffs and fifth higher seed to lose. I don't see that happening though, at least not yet. I like the Preds at 'plus money' in Game 6. 

I admit that I took Nashville in Game 5. I believe them to be the better team here as they rank significantly higher than Dallas in Corsi For %. Simply put, they do a better job at possessing the puck. They've outshot the Stars in all but one game in the series. But the last two games have not gone well w/ them losing 5-1 and 5-3. In the case of Game 4, that could be chalked up to a Dallas' power play scoring three times in the first period. But there were no PP goals allowed in Game 5, yet the Stars were still able to put together a three goal period. 

Why will it be different this time around for Nashville? Well, for starters, Dallas was just 9-26 SU after scoring 5+ goals prior to the previous game. Remember that during the regular season the Stars ranked just 28th in the league in goals per game, easily the lowest among all 16 playoff teams. Thus it's been pretty shocking to see them score 10 times in the L2 games, especially against a team like Nashville. My read is that the Predators are the better team in this series. They still have time to prove that. 10* Nashville

10* Chi White Sox (7:05 ET): Something will have to give when two pretty lousy teams meet Monday at Camden Yards. I see the White Sox having a pretty decided edge here as they get to go up against the struggling David Hess, who was tagged for six runs in his last outing, which lasted all of two innings. Plus, the Orioles are just 1-9 at home after getting swept by the Twins over the weekend. Chicago dropped 2 of 3 in Detroit, including a one-run decision on Sunday. But they benefit from the fact Saturday's game got rained out while Baltimore has had to play three games in the last two days. 

Hess has has lost his three starts, posting a 9.23 ERA and 1.657 WHIP. It was Tampa Bay that shelled him his last time out and a really troubling sign for the right-hander is that he's given up a total of 7 HR's his L3 starts. His teammates didn't do much better over the weekend, getting swept in a doubleheader on Saturday and then losing again on Sunday. They were outscored 26-15 in the three games. Since the start of last season, Baltimore is down almost 50 net units. They project to lose another 100 games this season. Betting against them at this price seems like a good idea.

Chicago will turn to Manny Banuelos in this spot. He hasn't started at the big league level since 2015. He has worked four times in relief this season, the longest of those stints going 3 1/3 innings. His last 9+ innings of work, Banuelos has allowed just two runs on five hits. It was a tough loss yday for the White Sox as they couldn't score until the 8th inning, wasting a strong start from Reynaldo Lopez. But scoring shouldn't be an issue against Hess. The Orioles have lost 18 of Hess' last 22 starts and are 0-6 their L6 times facing a southpaw starter (Banuelos is a lefty). They also have lost 41 of their last 51 series openers. 10* Chi White Sox

10* Under Sharks/Knights (7:05 ET): Four 1st round playoff series are now complete and in all four the lower seeded team has advanced. That's pretty crazy. The most notable upsets have obviously been the top seed in each conference bowing out, including the shocking sweep of Tampa Bay by Columbus. Vegas looks to keep the trend of lower-seeded teams advancing Sunday night in Sin City. While the Golden Knights didn't have the home ice advantage coming into the series, they were able to take Game 2 in San Jose. Then came a pair of wins here at home where of course they have been magical since coming into existence.

The Golden Knights have already failed in their first shot in closing out the series as they lost Game 5 in San Jose by a score of 5-2. Facing elimination, the Sharks got off to a fast start, scoring just 76 seconds into the game. They never trailed and spent most of the game enjoying a multi-goal advantage. However, here at T-Mobile Arena, the Golden Knights have to like their chances. They are 62-25-7 SU the L2 years at home, including 9-3 in playoff games. They won Game 3 by a score of 6-3 and Game 4 by a score of 5-0. 

The winning team of every game in this series has scored a minimum of five goals. The only game to stay Under thus far was the Game 4 shutout here in Vegas. I expect the Knights not to give up many again tonight as they were third best in the league in the regular season when it came to # of goals allowed at home. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 games in Vegas. 10* Under Sharks/Knights 

8* Over Raptors/Magic (7:05 ET): This is the other series (besides Celtics-Pacers) where there has yet to be an Over. Toronto now leads 2-1 after taking Game 3, 98-93. Unfortunately for Raptors' backers, unless they bet early, it was an ATS loss as the line closed -5.5. But the team will take it. Since losing Game 1 at home, 104-101 as 9.5-pt chalk, Toronto has held Orlando to just 175 total pts in a pair of victories. The Magic have shot pretty horribly for the series (37.8 FG%) and really need a win here or the series is all but over. Speaking of Over, that's what I'll call for Game 4 to do! 

Playing the Over is a departure for me in the series as I won w/ the Under in both Games 1 and 3. In my Game 1 analysis, I wrote "an outright upset is definitely in the realm of possibility here" (due to the Raptors' poor history in Game 1's.) That's exactly what happened. I also wrote that "the Magic posted the league's top defensive efficiency rating in the second half of the regular season." Thus I thought it was a bit odd to see them come into the playoffs on a 7-game Over streak. I thought there was definitely value w/ the Under early in the series and was right. 

But now the oddsmakers have been forced to adjust and we have our lowest O/U line for any game in the series. You have to figure that Orlando will start to shoot the ball better. While not a great offensive team on the road, at home the Magic average 109.6 points per game. Toronto is obviously one of the league's better offensive teams, averaging 114.0 PPG. It should be noted that this is the lowest O/U line for any Raptors game in some time. Their last game w/ a sub-210 pt total was New Year's Day vs. Utah. The Under might be 7-0 the L7 meetings here in Orlando, but the Over is 7-0 the L7 times Orlando has played on exactly one days' rest. 8* Over Raptors/Magic

8* San Diego (4:10 ET): The Reds came into this series having not won a single road game all season. (Well, except for one in Mexico). Now, they've won three in row. That dramatic turnaround lends itself to a play on host San Diego today as the four-game sweep remains pretty rare these days when you're the home team. The Padres know this all too well as last Sunday they lost in Arizona after taking the first three games of that series. That begat a six-game losing streak for the team, the last five of which have all come here at home. The streak ends Sunday. 

San Diego hasn't had much offense during the losing streak, scoring just 13 runs. They've been held to two or fewer in five straight. The good news though is they many not need much offense today w/ Joey Lucchesi on the mound. Lucchesi has pitched very well in his three starts at Petco Park, posting a 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP. Those numbers were even better before he ran into Colorado here on Monday. His first two starts saw him toss 10+ scoreless innings w/ 13 strikeouts. This is Lucchesi's second season in the bigs and he also pitched well here at home in his rookie campaign. All told, he has 105 strikeouts in 96 1/3 IP at Petco.

Cincinnati's Tyler Mahle comes in on a similar trajectory as Lucchesi: two strong starts followed by a rough one. Last Tuesday, Mahle allowed 4 runs and 11 hits against the Dodgers. The Reds also haven't done much scoring for Mahle this year, totaling just three runs in his three starts! Remember that the Reds had been swept in three of their first six series. Their offense remains as bad as any in all of MLB w/ a .195 team batting average for the year. That's dead last and it drops to .179 on the road. The Padres should avoid the sweep here. 8* San Diego

10* NY Mets (2:15 ET): The Mets were forced to call up Chris Flexen for yesterday's game in St. Louis to replace the injured Jacob deGrom. That went about as well as expected w/ Flexen allowing six runs in his first big league start since last July. The Mets lost 10-2 and just to rub salt into the wounds, Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas not only dominated them from the mound (allowed just four hits in 8 IP), but also at the plate w/ a pair of hits of his own. But the Mets are in luck today as they'll have Noah Syndergaard starting. I look for them to bounce back. 

The Mets are now 11-9, but have been outscored by 17 runs. That's not a great sign for the future, but Syndergaard makes the present appear strong. Now it's hardly been a dominant start to the year for Syndergaard. In fact, he has a 5.62 ERA after four starts. He's allowed four runs or more three times. But the Mets are 3-1 when Syndergaard takes the mound. He also has a 3.08 ERA in four career starts vs. St. Louis. With the deGrom injury, the club is now counting on Syndergaard to lead the rotation for the time being. I'm betting on him stepping up big in this spot.

St. Louis will go w/ Dakota Hudson, a converted reliever that was shelled his last time out. Hudson allowed six runs and eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings vs. Milwaukee, a 10-7 loss for the team. Hudson has yet to go a full five innings in any start this season and now has a 6.39 ERA and 2.368 WHIP. Chances of him outdueling Syndergaard here seem small. Making matters tougher is that the Cards are 0-4 the last 4 times they've been coming off a game where they scored 5+ runs. The Mets are 21-8 the L29 times Syndergaard has started and they scored two runs or fewer the previous day. 10* NY Mets

10* Over Celtics/Pacers (1:05 ET): This is one of two series yet to see an Over (Raptors-Magic is the other). The first two games in Boston were obviously really low scoring w/ the Celtics winning 84-74 and 99-91. Each of those two games saw the Pacers experience a significant scoring drought. In Game 1, it was a dreadful eight-point third quarter that turned a halftime advantage into a large deficit. Game 2, the collapse happened later w/ a 12-point fourth quarter and no field goals over the final minute. Obviously, both Games 1 and 2 stayed well Under the total.

Game 3 looked to be a little different. At least for a half it did. Indiana went into the break w/ a two-point lead, but it was how many points that had been scored in the first half that made things quite different. It was a 61-59 game and we looked to be heading towards our first Over of the series. But things came to a grinding halt after the halftime w/ the Pacers again turning in a dreadful half offensively. They scored only 12 points in the third quarter, which was the 4th time in the series they scored 17 or less in a quarter. They wound up w/ only 35 pts in the half and the results ended up being the same: Celtics win/cover & Under.

In this series, the Pacers are a stunning 12 of 40 on uncontested three-point attempts. That seems unfathomable. Whether or not they are able to stay alive to fight another day, I do see an Over Sunday afternoon. I realize that Indiana is w/o Victor Oladipo, but them averaging just 87 PPG on 39.8% shooting vs. Boston is kind of stunning. Remember they've been w/o Oladpio for awhile now and still averaged 107.3 PPG on 47.2% shooting for the regular season. Boston averages 111.8 PPG too. The first half of Game 3 showed me these teams are capable of putting together a high scoring game when facing each other. 10* Over Celtics/Pacers

10* Under Astros/Rangers (8:05 ET): Houston dropped three of four to Tampa Bay in its first series of the season. Little did we know how good the Rays would be looking at this point. But the Astros have Walso certainly gotten on track, winning 12 of their last 15. Two of their three losses came against the Rangers. But that was before they ripped off 10 straight wins. That win streak ended w/ a 2-1 loss in Oakland Wednesday, but the 'Stros got back on track last night and gained a measure of revenge by beating the Rangers 7-2. With the Under now 10-3 in their 13 road games, that's the way I'll play this one.

Texas has not had much offense the last three games, but last night was particularly anemic. They finished w/ two runs on four hits, the third straight game w/ five or fewer runs and nine or fewer hits. Both runs scored last night came from solo home runs and one wasn't until the ninth inning. I don't see them doing much tonight against Astros starter Gerrit Cole, who has pitched at least six innings in all four starts. He's given up three runs or less in each of the last three, one of which was against these Rangers. That start saw Cole betrayed by his offense, which did not score. Last time out, Cole finished w/ 11 K's in a win over Seattle. He has a 0.92 WHIP and all three road starts have stayed Under. 

The Rangers counter w/ Adrian Sampson, whose only prior start did not go well. He lasted just four innings and gave up seven runs. I expect better here as Houston is only averaging 3.7 rpg on the road. (Fortunate for them, they're only giving up 2.8 rpg). Sampson has faced the Astros in relief this season, going six innings on April 1st and he held them to one run on four hits. It's the only time he's ever faced them. Given how good Astros' pitching has been so far and that Cole has a 2.61 ERA in six career starts vs. Texas, you have to figure the Rangers won't do much at the plate and I don't think Houston will be as prolific as they were yday either. 10* Under Astros/Rangers

10* St. Louis (7:05 ET): Enough is enough already! The road team has won all five games in this series, but what transpired in Game 5 may have set the stage for the home team to finally break through and thus end the series. Now it certainly looked as if Winnipeg was poised to win Game 5 at home. They took an early 2-0 lead (scored first goal just 12 seconds in) and carried that into the third period. But then the Blues stunned the Manitoba faithful by scoring three times in the final period, including the game-winner w/ just 15 seconds left in regulation. The series ends Saturday. 

My view was always that the Blues were the better team here. They have the higher Corsi For %, ranking 9th in the league in that key metric. (Winnipeg is 21st, third worst among playoff teams). For those unaware, Corsi For % is a measure of puck possession time. Obviously, the more a team controls the puck, the more likely they are to win the game. The Jets have allowed far too many shots on goals all season. In fact, in the regular season, they allowed an average of 33.7 shots per game. That's the most among the 16 playoff teams. (St. Louis allowed the 4th fewest at 28.6 per game). 

Another key coming into this series was play in the third period. Yes, that's obviously key in any game, but especially w/ these teams. In the regular season, Winnipeg had the lowest win percentage in games they led after two periods among the 16 playoff teams (.743) while St. Louis was 2nd worst in the entire league (.065) when trailing after two periods. The fact that the Blues have "stolen" two games (Gms 1, 5) in this series where they trailed entering the third period is huge and will end up being the difference. Also remember that the Jets are a sub-.500 team over the last two months. The Blues closed the regular season on a 24-6-4 SU tear and won 14 of their last 16 home games. The home team is "due" and the Blues close it out. 10* St. Louis

8* Nashville (3:05 ET): We're all even at two games apiece in this best of seven series, but the Predators still have the home ice advantage as two of the (if necessary) remaining three plays would be played at their rink. After dropping Game 1 here in Music City (3-2), the Preds were able to avoid what would have been a terrible 0-2 hole by taking Game 2 in overtime. In fact, the first three games of this series were all decided by one goal. But Game 4 was all Dallas as they scored four times in the first period en route to a comfortable 5-1 win. Now it's Nashville's time to respond. 

The Preds went 25-14-2 SU at home in the regular season, so home ice advantage does matter here. (Dallas is below .500 on the road this year). They see an uptick in shots, but more importantly is the decrease in goals allowed. Needless to say, we won't see anything resembling the first period the Stars put together in Game 4. Something key to note is that three of those four 1st period goals Dallas scored in Game 4 came via the power play. Before that, they were just 1 of 13 w/ the man advantage in this series. The Preds are 14-2 SU the L16 times they have been off a loss by 3+ goals. 

The Stars are not a prolific offensive team. In the regular season, they ranked 28th in the league in goals per game. That's easily the lowest ranking of all 16 playoff teams. In fact, the only other playoff team in the bottom 10 in scoring is the Islanders. Now both teams are quite stingy in the goals allowed department, each ranking in the top three in the league. But even though their power play is virtually non-existent, I've always felt the Preds' offensive edge would be the difference maker here. Also key is the fact they rank 7th in the league in Corsi For % while Dallas is just 24th. 8* Nashville 

10* Under Sixers/Nets (3:05 ET): The big story here is that Philadelphia likely will be w/o Joe Embiid. But they didn't have Embiid for Game 3 either and still won 131-115 here in Brooklyn. It was their second straight 130+ point game against the Nets, but this time they didn't shoot nearly as well as they did for Game 2 in Phillly (56.1%). That wasn't surprising, but the game still easily went Over the total. As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to up their O/U line for Game 4. I see some value here w/ the Under as Philly should start to cool off offensively.

Brooklyn attempted 39 three-pointers in Game 3, a playoff record. Problem is they made only eight. While that percentage may very well improve Saturday afternoon, the real issue for the Nets lies on the defensive end. When they pulled their Game 1 upset, they did so by holding the Sixers to just 102 points. While not necessarily noted as a defensive team, Brooklyn did at least show they are capable of defending the Sixers well once. Now there's no Embiid and at home the task should (theoretically) be easier. Despite Game 3, the Under is still on a 7-3 run when the Nets are off an ATS loss.

Philadelphia has seen the Over go 7-2 their last nine games, but this is a higher total than usual for them. The last two games have seen them shoot better than 40% from three-point range. They figure to "cool off" moving forward as they weren't exactly a great three-point shooting team in the regular season. Their scoring drops off by about 6 PPG on the road compared to at home. Following a SU win by 10 or more points, the Under is on a 6-2 run in 76ers' games. They scored at least 30 in every quarter of Game 3. That won't happen again here. 10* Under Sixers/Nets

7* Calgary (10:05 ET): Pardon the pun, but we're one game away from BOTH of the top seeds in the NHL playoffs going down in "flames." Tampa Bay is out after a historically great regular season (62 wins!) and now - out West - Calgary faces the same fate if they don't win their next three games. For Flames' fans, this feeling has to be all too familiar. The last three times Calgary has won a division title, they've gone out in the first round. Then again, this is their first time as the top seed in the Western Conference since the 1988-89 season, the last time they won the Stanley Cup. 

But history doesn't matter to the Flames right about now, only the present does. They're down 3-1 to an Avalanche team they went 3-0 against in the regular season. Perhaps I'm biased, but outside of Game 3 (where they lost 6-2), I feel that Calgary has been the better team in this series. Twice they've lost in overtime, including Game 4 where they blew a two goal lead. (Unfortunately, I was on them). Game 2 saw them minutes away from taking a commanding 2-0 series lead only to give up a game-tying goal late in regulation. The Flames could easily be the ones up 3-1 in this series. 

Now they are back home. If you recall, I had them in Game 1 when they won here by a score of 4-0. A big problem for the Flames in the two games in Colorado was that they gave up a TON of shots. The number was 108 to be exact w/ the Avs posting 50+ in both games. That makes a goaltenders life very difficult. Fortunately, now that they're back home, I expect Calgary's offense to pick back up. They had the highest goals per game average at home of any team in the league in the regular season. I don't see them losing this series on home ice. 7* Calgary

10* Indiana (8:35 ET): The Pacers lost a couple of low scoring games in Boston, 84-74 and 99-91. Game 1 saw them fall apart in the third quarter when they scored all of eight points. In Game 2, the collapse happened later. They were outscored 31-12 in the fourth quarter this time as Boston outscored them 10-0 over the final five minutes. Indiana desperately needs to find some offense as they've been held 100 points the last three times they've played the Celtics. Game 1 was their lowest scoring game of the year (same as the Celtics). At home, I think Indiana finds the missing offense and delivers in a virtual "must-win" spot. Lay the short number.

Boston hasn't exactly been shooting the lights out either. They shot just 36.4% in Game 1 and 47.6% in Game 2. Kyrie Irving had 37 points in Game 2, but outside of Jayson Tatum (26 pts), he didn't have much help. Only one other Celtic had more than six points. Remember that Jaylen Brown is now starting in place of the injured Marcus Smart. I expect Smart's absence to be felt more on the road. The Celtics were only mediocre on the road in the regular season, going 21-20 overall and they had a losing record as an underdog.

Meanwhile, Indiana is an outstanding 29-12 SU at home. Key for them is defense. The fact that they've held the Celtics under 100 in both games should not come as a shock considering the Pacers were #1 in the league in scoring defense. They allow just 101 PPG at home, so expect the defensive prowess to continue as they find their offensive touch. The Pacers won 24 of their 33 games as a home favorite in the regular season, outscoring opponents by almost eight points per game. Yes, there's been a big swing in the line from Games 1 & 2. However, Indiana is significantly better here and they are also a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off a road trip of at least seven days. 10* Indiana

10* Under Mets/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Everyone but Miami has their eyes on the pennant in the NL East this year. Of the four viable teams, the Mets are the only ones to be outscored this season. They're sitting at 10-8 overall, but have a -10 run differential, which is not great for predicting future outcomes. It's still early obviously, but the fact they have allowed a NL-high 113 runs so far is an ominous sign. Keep in mind this is a pitching staff anchored by the likes of Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. The Over is 13-4-1 in all Mets' games so far this season. But I think this series opener in St. Louis is set to go a bit differently. 

St. Louis has the same 10-8 record as the Mets, but they have a +12 run differential, which says they've played the better baseball. They've certainly played better recently, winning 7 of the last 10 games, although they needed a 6-3 win Wednesday in Milwaukee to avoid a sweep in that series. It's been almost a full calendar year since the Cardinals took the field against the Mets as all six meetings last year took place before the end of April. They split the six meetings the Over going 4-1-1. Again though, I look for a different result here. 

Two of the oldest starting pitchers in all of baseball will face off here. For the Cardinals, Adam Wainwright appears to be beating Father Time. He has a 3.94 ERA and 1.125 WHIP and is off B2B quality starts. He's allowed just 10 baserunners in his last 12 IP. Last time out, he didn't give up a hit until there was one out in the sixth. Granted, that was the Reds he was facing, but it was a similar story the start before that (against San Diego) where he allowed only 1 run in six innings w/ a 9-0 KW rate. Jason Vargas has admittedly NOT pitched well so far for the Mets, but he can only improve compared to past outings (lasted only 1/3 of an inning last time out!). The Under is 3-0-1 the L4 times Vargas went 4 innings or less in his last start. 10* Under Mets/Cardinals

8* Under Magic/Raptors (7:05 ET): I had the Under in Game 1 of this series. In my analysis, I stated that "an outright upset is definitely in the realm of possibility here" due to the Raptors' poor history in Game 1's. That's exactly what happened as the Magic won outright 104-101 as 9.5-pt dogs. Of course, I'd also noted the Magic posted the league's top defensive efficiency rating in the second half of the regular season and won 22 of their final 31 games. Given Orlando's defensive prowess, I certainly thought it odd that they came into the playoffs riding a 7-game Over streak. 

Game 1 went Under and so did Game 2. I thought Toronto might underestimate their opponent for Game 1, but that was definitely not the case in Game 2 as they came out and won 111-82. The Magic didn't shoot well in either game (40% and 37%). We figure to see improvement in that department for Game 3, now that they're at home. But at the same time, Toronto is no slouch defensively itself. The Raptors have not allowed any opponent to shoot 50% since the All-Star Break. Incredibly, they've allowed only three opponents to shoot 50% or better since January 1st.

  But let's go back to the fact Orlando has posted the defensive efficiency rating in the league since the Break. Toronto came into the playoffs having scored 110 or more points in nine consecutive games. I said that streak would end in Game 1 and it did. They scored 111 in Game 2, but again I'm calling for less than 110 pts here. Neither Kawhi Leonard nor Kyle Lowry should shoot as well as they did in Game 2. When Orlando is off an ATS loss, the Under has gone 24-11 this season. The Under is also 6-0 their last six times hosting Toronto. 8* Under Magic/Raptors

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The "world" figured to be on the Warriors here after they blew a 31-point lead and lost to the Clippers in Game 2. Sure enough, that is the case and while Golden State certainly ought to be respected, they are laying far too many points in this spot. I though the lines for both Game 1 and 2 were inflated. Now it looked as if "the joke was on me" midway through the third quarter of Game 2. Having already lost Game 1 by 17 points, they were down by 31 and things were looking bleak. But that's when the greatest comeback in NBA Playoff history took place.

The Clippers are now back at home where they went 26-15 SU during the regular season. They shot 56.5% from the floor in Game 2, a number they likely will be unable to match tonight, but nevertheless this remains a prolific offensive team. They average 117.9 PPG at home and as previously noted, Golden State isn't as good defensively this season as in years' past. Obviously, it is rare to find the Clips getting this many points at home. They split two regular season home games w/ the Warriors and neither time were they getting this many points. 

As critical as I'd been of DeMarcus Cousins and his adverse effect on the Warriors' offense, the team will miss him as they simply don't have much depth. Now when you're as "top heavy" talent wise as the Warriors are, depth really isn't that great of a concern. But it can be in the playoffs, especially on the road as you get deeper into a series. Remember that the Clippers are among the deepest teams in the league as they are #1 in bench scoring. Golden State simply has not been a good team to bet on this season as their ATS record was third worst in the league during the regular season. Take the points. 8* LA Clippers 

10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): These teams have similar records, but delving into the box scores reveals that the Dodgers have played significantly better than have the Brew Crew. While the 12-8 Dodgers happen to have a NL-best +29 run differential, Milwaukee (12-7) has actually been outscored on the year (by two runs). These clubs met not long ago, in LA, and going into the series finale the Dodgers were on a six-game losing skid. They haven't lost since, having beaten Milwaukee 7-1 on Sunday, then sweeping the Reds. It's time to show "who's boss" in the Senior Circuit.

Thursday's starter for the Dodgers is Julio Urias. He also started the opener of the last series vs. Milwaukee. He lost the game, giving up five runs in five innings, to stay winless on the season. That made it B2B suspect starts for Urias after he didn't last long in Colorado either. He did open the year w/ a strong effort though; five shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Giants (7-0 KW rate), so he's certainly capable of pitching well. Something else to consider here is the Dodgers' offense. They lead the National League in runs scored, batting average and OPS. 

That's all trouble for Brewers' starter Zach Davies, though he admittedly tamed the Dodgers bats when he faced them five days ago. He allowed just one run in seven innings, scattering eight hits. The Brewers are now 3-0 in Davies' starts this season. That was one of only two games so far that LA was held to 1 or 0 runs. So while it's a "feather in the cap" of Davies, I seriously doubt he can turn the same trick twice. Also, the Brewers' top hitter Christian Yelich was just 2 for 12 in the last series vs. LA. The Dodgers are the better team here and I expect them to show that tonight (and the rest of the weekend for that matter). 10* LA Dodgers 

10* Brooklyn (8:05 ET): This was a specific game I had targeted when they playoff seedings were first announced. Philadelphia is a pretty pedestrian road team, having gone just 20-21 SU in the regular season. Brooklyn, as they showed in Game 1 of this series, is better than you think. They took the series opener, leading almost wire to wire, 111-102 as an eight-point underdog. I had them. Sensing some potential retribution from the Philly side, I laid off Game 2. That was wise as the Sixers shot 56% from the field en route to a 145-123 win and cover. Looking at the lines for Game 1 & 2, the Sixers seems to be a bit overvalued here as the series moves to the Barclays Center. Maybe that shouldn't be a surprise considering the nature of the Game 2 victory. But my own personal power ratings have this game as a pick 'em. Take the points. 

Brooklyn went 23-5 SU as a favorite in the regular season. Honestly, I thought the likelihood of them being favored in this spot was greater than them ending up as a dog. But then Game 2 happened. It's not that the Nets didn't shoot the ball well, quite the contrary. They were 47.9% from the field, including 15 of 36 from three-point range. The problem was they gave up 51 pts in the third quarter. Yes, 51 points. Philadelphia shot 18 of 25 in the quarter and was 11 for 11 from the free throw line.

That quarter was (obviously) the difference in the game. It went from a 1-pt deficit at halftime to 29 pts for the Nets. They ended up losing by 22. But note Philadelphia is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 125+ pts the previous time out. They are also 1-5 ATS off the L6 double digit wins. The Nets are 13-6 ATS off an ATS defeat and 9-3 ATS following a DD loss. There won't be any 51 pt quarters this time as I expect a much better effort on the defensive end from Brooklyn at home. Remember what I said about the Sixers in my Game 1 analysis. For a 3 seed, a YTD point differential of less than +3.0 per game is kind of weak. 10* Brooklyn

8* Over Blue Jays/Twins (1:10 ET): The two starters for this series finale come in w/ a combined 4-0 TSR this year, but quite frankly I'm not sure either can be counted on for any kind of consistent basis. For Toronto, Clay Buchholz is making just his second start of 2019. The first couldn't have gone much better as he allowed just one run while scattering six hits over six innings and the Blue Jays stunned the Rays w/ a 9th inning rally to win 3-1 as +190 dogs on the ML. Minnesota's Michael Pineda has a 3-0 TSR, but is averaging just 5 innings per start and it's not like the Twins' bullpen isn't suspect (see Monday's game). I see this one goinig Over the total. 

Now Toronto's offense has been pretty poor so far. They are in the bottom 10 in runs scored, batting average and OPS. But there's been a recent uptick w/ them averaging 4.6 runs over the past seven games. Before getting held to just the one run yday, they'd scored at least four times in six of their previous seven contests. I believe they'll be able to get to Pineda, who has given up a HR each of his L2 starts. Remember that Pineda sat out all of last year due to Tommy John surgery. While his pitch count has increased w/ every start, it's still a relatively "short leash" and he probably won't go deep into this game. 

Buchholz has also battled injuries and his best days are clearly behind him. Velocity on his fastball was way down (89.6 MPH average) vs. Tampa Bay and he managed just two strikeouts. The Twins have averaged 6.0 runs their last seven games, which is an impressive number. Also, the Over is on a 13-6 run (dating back to last year) coming off a game where they allowed 2 runs or fewer. Though the home team is expected to take care of business here (and thus we may not play the bottom of the ninth), the O/U line is still below the key number of 9.0. 8* Over Blue Jays/Twins

10* Calgary (10:05 ET): The top-seeded Flames were minutes away from taking a commanding 2-0 series lead over Colorado. Instead, they now find themselves trailing 2-1 in the best of seven series. Back in Game 2, they gave up a game-tying goal w/ just under three minutes left in regulation and then lost in OT. Then they got flat out embarrassed in Game 3, losing 6-2 in Denver as they fell behind 3-0 after one period. Remember what I said in my Game 1 analysis - "It's been exactly 20 years since the Flames entered the playoffs as a top seed. The last time it happened (1988-89), they won the Stanley Cup. Since that time, they've won only three division titles. In what they hope is not an ominous precedent, they were out in the first round of the playoffs each of those three years." 

But in taking the Flames in Game 1, I said that this year's team looked to be different. They won Game 1, 4-0, and I haven't done anything in the series since. I'm stepping back in for Game 4 as I see the clearly better team trailing in the series and likely to even things up. This group was #4 in the league in Corsi For % and #2 in goal differential. Consider that they were north of -200 on the money line for Game 2. Now they're having to play on the road, but getting them at essentially "even money" looks to be a real value here.

I spoke of Colorado's lack of depth previously. After their tremendous top line, there just isn't scoring much. In a move to address that concern, they called up rookie Cale Makar before Game 3. His impact was immediately felt w/ a goal scored in his first professional game. That said, I'm still a believer in Calgary. Only four times all season have they lost three or more games in a row. I consider the six goals allowed in Game 3 to be a total aberration considering they were #1 in the league during the regular season in goals allowed in road games. 10* Calgary

8* Utah (9:35 ET): Admittedly, my play on the Jazz for Game 1 did not go well. They lost by 32 points. But that final score of 122-90 is a little misleading when you consider how things really got out of hand late. Houston outscored them 39-19 in the fourth quarter to take a game that already wasn't very competitive and turn it into a full fledged rout. But - believe it or not - as I come back with a play on Utah for Game 2, much of the rationale will stay the same. The number, which I thought was too high for Game 1, has stayed relatively unchanged here. Take the points.

Directly taken from my Game 1 analysis - "The Jazz are a better team than their seed indicates. As a matter of fact, in my own personal power rankings I have them one spot above Houston. I have them #4 overall, 2nd best among Western Conference teams (trailing only Golden State obviously). Only three teams - the Bucks, Warriors and Raptors had better net efficiency ratings and point differentials. Were it not for an "unlucky" 0-7 SU record this year in games decided by three points or less, Utah definitely would have finished higher." One bad game is not going to change my view of them. 

The Jazz shot just 39 percent in Game 1 and were 7 of 27 from three-point range. That's not a winning formula and their trademark defense wasn't present either. I expect them to play much better on BOTH ends of the floor Wednesday. Coming off a SU loss, they are on a 20-6-1 ATS run this season. They did lose the meaningless regular season finale (to the Clippers), so Game 1 was a rare instance of them failing to cover in that spot. But the last time Utah lost three games in a row straight up was mid-November (note: they've never lost four in a row). I took the Clippers off a double digit loss on Monday (and won) and will do the same thing here. 8* Utah

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Arizona took the series opener 9-6, but look for the Braves to bounce back at home. As "advertised," they look to have a significant edge in the starting pitching department tonight. Kevin Gausman has a 2.84 ERA and 0.868 WHIP after two starts while Arizona's Zack Godley has been battered around in three starts, leaving him w/ a 7.41 ERA and 1.471. Godley's lone road start to date was a complete disaster w/ him allowing eight runs at Chavez Ravine. He's also allowed multiple HR's in two of his three outings. I like Atlanta in this spot quite a bit. 

The Braves had a 5-2 lead last night going into the 7th inning. But the bullpen gave it away. First, it was allowing four runs in the 7th. The offense was able to tie it back up in the bottom half of the inning, but then the D'backs got a HR from Christian Walker to lead off the ninth and that was all she wrote. They even tacked on a couple more runs for good measure. The Braves' bullpen performance highlights the need for Gausman to "step up" and fortunately he should be able to do just that. He has a 6-1 TSR his last seven starts at home dating back to last season. 

As bad as Atlanta's bullpen has been this season, Arizona's has actually been worse w/ a 6.03 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. So, even with what unfolded yday, I'm not concerned w/ the late innings. Especially considering that I expect the Braves again to have the lead early here. Godley has pitched a lot on the road the L2 seasons and has won plenty of games, but his career ERA on the road (4.54) leaves a lot to be desired. As I already mentioned, he was knocked around in LA earlier this year. Since the start of last season, he has an ERA approaching 6.00 away from home. In three career starts vs. the Braves, his ERA is 7.40.  10* Atlanta

10* Over Pacers/Celtics (7:05 ET): My hats off to anyone who had the Under in Game 1 of this series as it was a FIFTY point winner! As a result, the O/U line has come WAY down for Game 2. The Under was a perfect 8-0 in Game 1's across the playoffs, so that was something else for the oddsmakers to consider. Monday featured a pair of high-scoring Game 2's though, showing we should be careful about putting "too much stock" into one result. Note that the previous three times the Pacers and Celtics had met, they had combined to score 214 or more points. Take the Over here as there's some serious value.

The trend stretches back awhile, but Indiana is 14-3 Over the L17 times it was held to 75 pts or less in its previous game. Despite being one of the top Under teams in the regular season, the fewest number of points they scored in a regular season game was 89, done a few times. They average 107.6 PPG. Game 1 swung entirely on a dreadful 8-point third quarter. For the game, the Pacers shot just 33.3% overall and were 6 of 27 from three-point range. They had just 29 pts in the second half. Obviously, we'll see much better shooting from them in Game 2. As for the defensive end, while they led the league in PPG allowed in the regular season, they still gave up 107.7 per game away from home. 

Boston averages 112.0 PPG for the year. They shot just 36.7% from the floor in Game 1 and turned the ball over 20 times. Yet they still won comfortably, thanks to the Pacers' own ineptitude and that decisive third quarter. That many turnovers should (theoretically) lead to more points from the opponent. But Indiana converted those 20 TO's into only NINE points. That's remarkably bad. This will be the lowest total for any Pacers-Celtics matchup this season and seven points lower than the O/U line for Game 1. Can we say "value?" 10* Over Pacers/Celtics

8* Under Royals/White Sox (2:10 ET): Coming into the season, I wasn't expecting much from either of these two ballclubs and the first 15 (or so) games haven't affected my view one iota. The White Sox have won three in a row, including the first two games of this series as they've held the Royals to 1 and 4 runs. With KC now averaging just 2.8 rpg, I'm not expecting much from them offensively today. But Chicago isn't exactly a "murderer's row" at the plate either. In 9 of the past 10 games, they've been held to five runs or fewer. The last four have all gone Under. Take the Under in this matinee. 

Lucas Giolito gets the baseball this afternoon for the White Sox. It's certainly been a less than stellar start for him individually as he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his three starts. But the team has gone 2-1 w/ him on the mound. Given that information, it should not be shocking to learn that the Over is a perfect 3-0 in Giolito starts. But the Royals appear to be the ideal opponent for a turnaround. Giolito is unbeaten (4-0) in seven career outings vs. KC w/ a 2.40 ERA. That includes earlier this year where he held them to just two runs and three hits (6 2/3 IP) for his only quality start of 2019. He had eight strikeouts as well. 

Brad Keller will the starter for Kansas City. He has pitched quite well this season. He's 4 for 4 in terms of quality starts and comes off what was perhaps his best effort EVER as he had a career high 10 K's vs. Cleveland. He limited the Indians to one run on three hits. Earlier in the year, Keller faced the White Sox and threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. In between that start and the last one, he tossed a pair of six inning efforts while giving up just three runs both times. Overall, Keller has allowed only seven runs in 25 2/3 IP. Believe it or not, no pitcher in all of baseball has a higher number of consecutive starts going at least six innings than Keller, who has done in 10 straight times (dating back to LY). 8* Under Royals/White Sox

8* Over Thunder/Blazers (10:35 ET): It was kind of an ugly Game 1, but Portland held serve on its home court, winning 104-99 and covering as 3.5-pt chalk. In case you missed it, the Blazers are the only team w/ home court advantage in the 1st round NOT to be favored. A large part of that was due to the fact the Thunder swept the regular season series, SU and ATS. Also, Portland had lost 10 consecutive playoff games entering Saturday. They are without one of their best players too (Jusuf Nurkic), but that hardly mattered in Gm 1 w/ OKC shooting so poorly and Damian Lillard scoring 30 points. 

Neither team shot the ball well in Game 1 as the Blazers were 41.9% from the field and the Thunder an even worse 39.8%. OKC really struggled from three-point range, going 5 of 33. I suspect we'll see drastic improvement in that department here on Tuesday. For the season, the Thunder are averaging 114.3 PPG on more than respectable shooting - both overall and from behind the arc. Paul George (8 of 24) really struggled from the floor in Game 1 and should be better here. Portland's starting backcourt (Lillard and McCollum) were a combined 18 of 45 and also should see collective improvement. 

As of this writing (Monday afternoon). the Under has gone a perfect 8-0 in the NBA Playoffs! That's right, every Game 1 stayed Under. I expect at least one game will probably go Over Monday night (didn't play either total) and eventually that trend will start to even out. The Over remains 15-5-1 in Portland's last 20 home games where they average 117.9 PPG, a nice jump (about 3 PPG) from the overall average. Also, the Over is 20-5-1 the L26 times the Blazers have take the court on exactly one days rest. Portland is not as good defensively as they showed Saturday, but they are a top five team in offensive efficiency. 8* Over Thunder/Blazers 

10* Under Reds/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers have done plenty of scoring so far this season. Their 113 runs lead the National League and are 2nd most in all of baseball, trailing only Seattle (130), who gets to use the DH. But they were held to just four runs last night by the Reds, a team that gave the Dodgers plenty of trouble last season. Dodger Blue still won the game mind you, 4-3, in walk-off fashion. But in between the 1st and 9th innings, there was just one run scored in the game. I believe LA's offense will continue to "cool off" while their pitching holds the Reds in check. Take the Under. 

Kenta Maeda gets to follow Clayton Kershaw in the rotation. Last night saw Kershaw make a successful return, throwing 57 of 84 pitches for strikes. He allowed just two runs on five hits over 7 IP and had a 6-0 KW rate. Maeda should also have little difficulty shutting down a Reds lineup that has struggled the first month of the season. The Reds have been held to just 55 runs in 15 games, but even that's a little misleading as they scored 14 in one game. Take that away and they are averaging less than 3.0 rpg over the other 14 contests. They're batting just .210 overall and are near the bottom of the league in every major offensive category. 

But if the Reds are to have a fighting chance Tuesday, it will be because of starter Tyler Mahle. In two starts, Mahle has a 0.82 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He's allowed just one run in 11 IP and it was a solo HR. Other than that, he's given up just six other hits. Both starts were very low-scoring games as the Reds lost 2-0 to the Pirates and beat the Marlins 2-1. Cincy is 11-4 Under in all games so far. The Dodgers have gone Under in three straight (after starting 11-4 Over) and while the Over is 3-0 in Maeda starts, that's due to an overwhelming amount of run support, the likes of which will start to subside. Maeda has always been a better pitcher at home as evident by the fact he went 8-1 here two years ago w/ a 2.87 ERA and 1.005 WHIP. 10* Under Reds/Dodgers

8* Houston (10:07 ET): The Astros are the hottest team in baseball right now as they've won nine straight games. I took them in all three wins they had over the weekend in Seattle, citing numerous factors, mainly on the Seattle side as that was a team due to regress (following an extraordinary start). Another team I have earmarked for regression in the AL West this season is Oakland. They stunned everyone by making the playoffs last year (as a Wild Card), but they did so by going a MLB-best 31-14 in one-run games. They weren't as fraudulent as Seattle was LY, but the A's won't be winning 90+ games again, that's for sure. Keep riding Houston. 

It was a strong statement made by the Astros over the weekend as they took all three games up in Seattle. None of the wins came easy, but the bottom line is this team hasn't lost a game since April 3rd in Texas. The win streak began w/ a three-game sweep of these A's, at home. (In between sweeping the division rivals, they also swept the Yankees). Collin McHugh will look to keep things going Tuesday and he figures to pitch well in this spot, considering he held the A's to one run on three hits (6 IP) when he faced them earlier in the month. He followed that up by holding the Yankees to two runs on four hits, also over six innings. McHugh has a 2.65 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his three starts this season. He is 9-1 w/ a 2.78 ERA lifetime vs. Oakland. Another key is McHugh will be backed by what has been the AL's best bullpen so far (2.70 ERA). 

Oakland's bullpen (4.39 ERA) is clearly inferior to that of the Astros and starter Marco Estrada doesn't match up well w/ McHugh either. Estrada hasn't pitched poorly per se, but his team start record (TSR) is 0-4 this year. He did not face Houston in the previous series, but he did just allow six runs (in 4 IP) in an ugly loss to Baltimore last Monday. He's already given up five HR's this season and has only 10 K's in just over 20 IP. Not sure having seven days off will matter for Estrada as McHugh is also pitching on five days rest and he's got a 14-3 TSR in that situation. The Astros have taken 40 of the last 58 games vs. Oakland. 8* Houston

10* St. Louis (9:35 ET): The home team has yet to win a game in this series as the Blues took both games up in Manitoba while the Jets stayed viable in the series w/ a 6-3 win here in St. Louis in Game 3. Giving up six goals is NOT something we're accustomed to seeing w/ this Blues team that ranked in the top five in the league in goals allowed. I think we'll see the home side finally break through here in Game #4 Tuesday as they are still 14-3 their last 17 games here and have suffered just two losing streaks since the All-Star Break (which was at the end of January).

The Blues, as you may know, were a solid home team in the regular season. As I already pointed out, they've won 14 of their last 16 regular season games here at the Enterprise Center to finish 24-15-2. It's not like the Jets are a great road team either (23-18-1). Overall, the Blues were the much better team down the stretch as they went 24-6-4 their last 34 regular season games. Meanwhile, Winnipeg stumbled badly, playing sub-.500 hockey over the last two months. They haven't even won B2B games since a four-game streak from March 14th-20th. 

A key in determining how this series ends up is the third period (I know, what a shock!). Winnipeg had the lowest win percentage in games they led after two periods among the 16 playoff teams (.743) while St. Louis was 2nd worst in the entire league (.065) when trailing after two periods. The Blues thus really "stole one" in Game 1 when they came back to score twice in the final 20 minutes. They have the higher Corsi For % (key metric) this season, which means they typically control the puck more than Winnipeg does. The Jets were actually 21st in Corsi For % (3rd lowest among playoff teams) and give up 33.4 shots per game (highest among playoff teams). St. Louis is better and the home team is due to breakthrough in the series. 10* St. Louis

10* Over Spurs/Nuggets (9:05 ET): We cashed the Spurs in Game 1 as they turned in a truly masterful performance by holding Denver to just 96 points in what was an outright upset as 6-pt underdogs. Taking both games at the Pepsi Center isn't something many, if any, thought the Spurs could do. But now they have a chance. We do respect Denver enough to hold off on taking the points again, but don't discount what we taked about in our Game 1 analysis either. San Antonio has been "sneaky good" on offense this season, ranking fifth in efficiency and 1st in 3-pt shooting %. Take the Over for Game 2 (as the number is several points lower than it was for Game 1). 

As of this writing (Monday afternoon), the Under has gone a perfect 8-0 in the NBA Playoffs! That's right, every Game 1 stayed Under. I expect at least one game will probably go Over Monday night (didn't play either total) and eventually that trend will start to even out. Now, speaking of trends, the Under has hit in all five Spurs-Nuggets matchups this season. After a March meeting (in San Antonio) peaked w/ an OU line of 230 (!), predictably we are now at the lowest number yet. The Spurs are 6-1 Under their last seven games overall as well. 

But I simply can't see the Nuggets shooting the ball so poorly yet again. They finished at just 42.0% from the field in Game 1, including 6 of 24 on three-pointers. It also didn't help that they missed 8 of 24 free throw attempts. The Spurs, as usual, were pretty efficient from three-point range as they made 7 of 15 attempts. Note that it was a 30-point third quarter (17-13 in favor of Denver) that really sealed the Under Saturday night. I don't see such a quarter taking place again here. For the season, the Nuggets average 113.7 PPG at home while the Spurs give up roughly the same number on the road. With the oddsmakers having dropped the total for Game 2, I see value. 10* Over Spurs/Nuggets

7* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): Truthfully, I have not had the best record in this series, whiffing on every game thus far (0-3!). Twice, I've taken the Penguins to no avail and in Game 2 I lost w/ the Under. The fact the Pens currently trail the series 3-0 is downright shocking, at least to me, considering their own relative playoff resume and the inexperience of the Islanders. Plus, the Isles just scream "overachiver" to me, not just based on the fact they are last among playoff teams in Corsi For %, but also this stunning transformation that has taken place on the defensive end. It's probably too late for Pittsburgh to get back in the series, but certainly they can salvage a game on home ice. 

Pitttsburgh came in having won 9 of its last 10 playoff series (won Stanley Cup in 2016 and '17) while the Islanders have advanced past the first round of the playoffs just once since 1993. The Pens had not trailed 0-2 in any playoff series under HC Mike Sullivan until this one. But none of that matters now as the Islanders have led for all but four minutes of the last three games. That's pretty incredible when you think of all the offensive firepower that Pittsburgh possesses. But they've been held to just two goals in the last two games. On the bright side, they have not been beaten three straight times in regulation since November. I have to think there's some fight left. 

Somehow, the Pens have to find a way to solve Robin Lehner, who has a .951 save percentage in the series and a .931 save percentage for the season. Easier said than done, but it's doable. They did beat him three times in Game 1 (on 44 shots). Getting the power play going would also be huge. They are just 1 for 8 w/ the man advantage to this point in the series. I just don't think the Islanders can keep playing above their heads like this. 7* Pittsburgh

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers came into this series as the biggest underdogs EVER in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs. So no one is giving them much of a chance. On a Saturday where the other three underdogs all won outright, the Clips lost Game 1 by 17 points, but that's really not horrible considering they closed as 13.5-pt underdogs. There's been no real change in the line for Game 2 and I do see some value w/ the underdog. They are 8-1 ATS on the road, off a road loss, this season. Steph Curry probably isn't making eight three-pointers again here either. Take the points. 

Despite Curry going 8 of 12 from three-point range for the game and the Clippers making only 2 of their first 10 three-point attempts, the game stayed relatively close for most of the first half. It was just a two-point game w/ slightly over two minutes to go before halftime. That's when the Warriors made a big run and never looked back (Clips never got closer than six points). Curry has killed LA all season, but containing him would go a long way. Easier said than done obviously, but the rest of the Warriors really weren't that impressive in Game 1. The Clippers were only 27 of 64 on 2-pt attempts Saturday (42%), a number which should go up substantially here. 

DeMarcus Cousins only played 21 minutes in Game 1 for Golden State. That's something to keep an eye on as the Dubs are a substantially WORSE offensive team when Boogie is on the court. Obviously then, it would be wise for HC Steve Kerr to minimize his minutes, but is that really possible over the course of a series? Only six Warriors played more than 20 minutes in Game 1. They are obviously lighter on "star power," but the Clippers are a significantly "deeper" team than the Warriors and had the most bench scoring in the league. They will keep this one close! 10* LA Clippers

10* Over Cardinals/Brewers (7:40 ET): St. Louis is coming off a two-game split w/ Cincinnati, a series which took place down in Mexico. Yesterday saw them score nine runs in two big innings, most of it due to the bat of Marcell Ozuna, who homered twice. His three-run shot in the top of the 1st got things goings and then a solo shot in the 7th pretty much put things away in what ended up being a five-run frame. Milwaukee missed out on a chance to sweep the Dodgers yday, losing 7-1, but Miller Park has seen its fair share of scoring so far this season. I'm on the Over here. 

We have two starters here that haven't pitched very well in 2019. St. Louis may not get the "cluster luck" it enjoyed in yday's game vs. the Reds, but they should certainly be able to get to Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta both early and often. Peralta has toed the rubber three times so far and those three starts have produced a 6.91 ERA and 1.396 WHIP. His one start here at Miller Park was real bad and it happened to come against the Cardinals. Peralta allowed four runs and was gone after just three innings. Milwaukee ended up losing 9-5, the only game they dropped in that series.

Milwaukee is allowing more than six runs per game at home so far, but the good news is they're also scoring more than six per game. That prior series here vs. the Cardinals saw them average just under 5.0 per game. Moving from pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine to back home should wake up an offense that was held to one run on four hits yday. Also beneficial will be facing Dakota Hudson. This will be the Brew Crew's second time seeing Hudson as they faced him in the prior series and got to him for four runs in 4 1/3 innings. They homered three times off him. The Over is 7-0-1 following the last eight times Milwaukee was held to two runs or less in its last game. The Over is also 9-2 in the Cardinals' last 11 series openers. 10* Over Cardinals/Brewers 

10* Carolina (7:05 ET): The Hurricanes first playoff appearance in a decade figures to be a short one if they don't win here. But down 0-2 to the Capitals, the Canes return home to Raleigh for Game 3 Monday to play in front of what figures to be a pretty raucous crowd. The team went 24-13-4 SU on home ice during the regular season. While Washington has had Carolina's number in this series, and all season for that matter, you have to remember there wasn't much of a difference in the standings (just 5 points) or in YTD goal differential (+26 vs. +22). I'm siding w/ the home team in this virtual "do or die" scenario.

Carolina was #1 in the league in Corsi For % during the regular season (54.9%). This means they were the best at controlling the puck, which is obviously vital to winning hockey games. Correspondingly, no team outshot its opponents on a per game basis by a wider margin. The Canes were #1 in the league w/ 34.4 shots per game and #3 in fewest shots allowed at 28.6 per game. In Game 1, they badly outshot the Capitals (29-18) while Game 2 was an overtime loss. Of course, none of the possession stats matter if they can't eventually outscore the Caps in a game. I think Monday is that time. 

This season has seen Carolina go 0-6 SU vs. Washington. The problem in the first two games of this series has been falling into early holes. The Hurricanes have been outscored 5-1 in the first period and that's pretty much put them "behind the 8-ball." But I'm thinking the home ice advantage for Game 3 is a "difference maker" as this is the first playoff game in Raleigh since 2009. These fans and this team didn't suffer through the longest postseason drought in the league to lose its first time at home. The Canes are 6-2 SU their last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 while Washington is 6-13 SU its last 19 games as a playoff underdog. 10* Carolina

10* Utah (9:35 ET): The Jazz are a better team than their seed indicates. As a matter of fact, in my own personal power rankings I have them one spot above Houston. I have them #4 overall, 2nd best among Western Conference teams (trailing only Golden State obviously). Only three teams - the Bucks, Warriors and Raptors had better net efficiency ratings and point differentials. Were it not for an "unlucky" 0-7 SU record this year in games decided by three points or less, Utah definitely would have finished higher. This is way too many points to pass up for Game 1. 

Houston losing to Oklahoma City in the final game of the regular season proved costly. It was a game that they led by as many as 14 pts in the fourth quarter (lost 112-111 as 3-pt chalk). Now if "all" that did was simply end Houston's prior six-game SU/ATS win streak, it wouldn't be that big a deal. But that result, coupled w/ Portland winning on the final day of the regular season, dropped the Rockets down a spot and into this unfortunate matchup w/ the Jazz. The teams split four regular season meetings and again, by the numbers, Utah was better in the regular season.

The Rockets actually had a decent defense last year. That was how they were able to win 65 regular season games and come within an eyelash of the NBA Finals. But this year, their defensive efficiency rating dropped down to 16th in the league. The Jazz were #2 in that department. Now, Utah will be tested defensively by a Houston team that has James Harden and Chris Paul. But I think they'll be up to the task and Donovan Mitchell should hit some key shots for them on the other end. Utah did drop its final regular season game (in OT to the Clippers), but it meant nothing and it was by six points or less (6 exactly). The Jazz are 10-2 ATS this season off a loss by 6 pts or less. Houston will "rue the day" it lost its own regular season finale. 10* Utah

8* Over Mets/Braves (7:05 ET): The Mets are in first place in the National League East, but are just 3-3 their last 6 games. They were denied the chance to go for what could have been a four-game sweep here in Atlanta as they lost yday by a count of 11-7. Nevertheless, the Mets lineup is humming along quite nicely. They have scored six or more runs in seven straight games, averaging 7.3 per game to be exact. They've got to be feeling good about their chances going into Sunday night as Jacob deGrom is the starter. But deGrom did allow six runs - and three homers - his last time out. I'm going w/ the Over tonight. 

Atlanta should probably be taking a step back this year after winning the division in 2018. Yesterday's game was their best offensive performance of the season, but it's not as if they've struggled to score runs. They're averaging a healthy 5.4 rpg so far. While it's been the Mets that have been an Over team (10-3-1 in all games), the Braves are 3-0 Over in starts made by Julio Teheran, thanks in large part to Teheran being charged with 10 runs. Six of those came in his last start (at Colorado), but the Braves still won. 

So both starters here allowed six runs in their last start. Now deGrom didn't give up ANY in either of his first two outings and is obviously one of the best pitchers in all of baseball (maybe THE best?). But that last one showed he's not immune to giving up some runs. With the Mets' last seven games averaging nearly 15.0 runs per, I expect this one to go Over what is a low total. 8* Over Mets/Braves

analysis soon

6* Philadelphia (1:10 ET): The Phillies were embarrassed Saturday as they fell behind Miami 10-0 and didn't score until the 9th inning. I expect them to bounce back though on Sunday as the Marlins figure to be the proverbial "punching bag" in the NL East this season. The other four teams in the division, Philadelphia included, all have their eyes on the postseason. Miami projects to be a 100-loss team. The win yday was just the 4th of the year for the Fish, who have won B2B games only one time and are 2-9 here in April. Their starter for Sunday doesn't exactly inspire confidence. 

The Phils go w/ Vince Velasquez today. He's started only one game so far, but aside from allowing a HR, he looked very good. He allowed just four hits in five innings of work and didn't walk anybody. The team desperately needs a strong effort out of Velasquez here as pitching staff has given up 10+ runs in three of its last four games. But two of those were against Washington. I look for this to be along the lines of Friday's 9-1 victory as Velasquez has a 3.18 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Miami. Before yday, the Marlins had scored a grand total of just two runs in its last four games. Yesterday was a season-high in runs and hits (18), but they still average only 3.0 rpg for the year. 

There simply isn't much good to report with Jose Urena, who will be getting the baseball for a 4th time here in 2019. Miami's starter has produced some ugly numbers thus far (8.56 ERA, 2.121 WHIP) and even worse is the fact he has NEVER won a decision in March or April. Talk about a slow starter; Urena is 0-7 in 18 appearances (9 starts) in March or April w/ a 5.97 ERA. He also has a 4.92 ERA in 14 appearances (10 starts) against Philadelphia. The Phillies are still averaging 5.8 rpg this year and they're 3-1 off a loss. It seems like a smart bet to expect them to bounce back. 6* Philadelphia 

6* Pittsburgh (12:05 ET): The Penguins find themselves in an 0-2 series hole right now, but the series w/ the Islanders now shifts back home. After outshooting the Isles in Game 1 (44-33), shots were pretty much even for Game 2, but NY scored twice in the third period. Up until that point, it had been a pretty even series w/ Game 1 going to OT. I just can't see the Pens going down 0-3, so while we have to lay some juice to do so, playing the home team looks to be the smart play for Game 3. I still have some doubts about the Islanders' long-term viability.

The Islanders have been a somewhat remarkable story this season, their first under HC Barry Trotz, who led the Capitals to the Stanley Cup last season. Last year, the Isles set a record for most goals allowed in an 82-game season. This year, they allowed the fewest number of goals in the league. But they did so despite a 47.9 Corsi For percentage, which was not just the lowest among all playoff teams, but also sixth lowest in the entire league. When they take their act on the road, they are averaging just 27.5 shots per game, a very low number, so it's a wonder how they have a winning road record.

Pittsburgh obviously has its collective back against the wall here and I expect them to play accordingly. That means an aggressive style. Sidney Crosby has zero points in this series and just three shots on goal. This is the first time they've been down 0-2 in a series under HC Sullivan. Remember that this is a team that's won 9 out of its last 10 playoff series as they won the Stanley Cup in both 2016 & '17. Playing short-handed too often has really hurt the Penguins in this series so far, but I expect them to play "cleaner," more mistake-free hockey in what is easily their biggest game of the season. 6* Pittsburgh

6* Max Holloway (11:59 ET): This is a five-round fight for the interim lightweight title (155 lbs). It should be an easy win for the favorite, Max Holloway, who is looking to avenge a loss in his first UFC fight ever. But, seven years later, it's pretty clear that he's the superior fighter now compared to Dustin Poirier. Holloway should win easy and a stoppage is quite likely. 

Back in Feb 2012 (UFC 143), Poirier was able to defeat Holloway by dominating on the ground. But this is a much different Holloway as his takedown defense has improved exponentially. After losing to Conor McGregor in August of 2013, Holloway was just 3-3 in six UFC fights. But he hasn't lost since and brings a 13-fight win streak into tonight. All but three of those victories have come via stoppage and the last four have all been by TKO. He is the featherweight champion (145 lbs), so he's moving up a weight class here to compete for an interim title, but I feel it will be a seamless transition. 

Poirier's best days are behind him. He too spent plenty of time fighting at featherweight, but has been competing at 155 since 2015. The irony of the win over Holloway back in 2012 is that Poirier demonstrated a kind of discipline you rarely see from him these days. With Holloway having much better takedown defense now, expect Poirier to get frustrated here, which will lead to mistakes. Standing, Holloway has a massive edge in this fight and that is where the majority of it will take place. 6* Max Holloway

8* San Antonio (10:35 ET): This season has to be considered a massive success in Denver, regardless of what happens here in the playoffs. However, not to be the "bearer of bad tidings," but the Nuggets were a bit fortunate in finishing the regular season w/ a 54-28 SU record. They went an extremely fortunate 13-3 in games decided by three points or less. That was the most wins by any team in games of that nature and easily the best win percentage. The Nuggets are one of two playoff teams in the West that didn't have a winning record. First round opponent San Antonio happened to be the other, but this is too many points to lay for Game 1.

These teams essentially finished the regular season w/ matching net efficiency ratings. Denver was +3.0 while San Antonio was +2.8. This was far from Greg Popovich's best defensive team, but they did improve on that end of the floor - significantly - over the second half of the season. The Spurs did end up beating projections for this season and a major reason for that was the offensive end. They were fifth in offensive efficiency and led the league in three-point shooting percentage. With both teams ranking near the bottom of the league in pace of play, possessions will be vital here. I think it's going to be difficult for Denver to create any separation.

In the past, home court advantage has been pretty critical when these teams meet. The home team has won 10 straight meetings, including four this season. Denver had the best home record in the league (34-7 SU), but I still have my doubts about a team that lack a true "go to" superstar and is making its first foray into the postseason as a group. Meanwhile, this will be the 22nd straight year in the playoffs for San Antonio, and while the names on the back of the jerseys have changed, the coach has not. I'm not a huge "buyer" in this Nuggets team and like the points! The Spurs have gone 19-2 ATS avenging a loss this season if the opponent scored 110+ pts in the previous matchup. 8* San Antonio

6* Houston (9:10 ET): I loved the Astros last night and while it was "dicey" early on, they ended up pulling out a 10-6 victory thanks to TWO grand slams. I'll come right back with them again for many of the same reasons I stipulated in yday's analysis. Seattle's 13-2 start was downright shocking to me, considering I had them earmarked for some serious regression in 2019. Last year's 89-73 WL record was a total fraud as the team was outscored by 34 runs, giving them an "expected" win total of 77. No team in all of MLB had a bigger gap between actual and expected wins LY, positive or negative. 

Houston is no stranger to winning as they've now come out ahead in seven straight games. They'll send Justin Verlander to the bump Saturday. Verlander has had two quality starts out of three, beating the Rays and Yankees. I really like what manager A.J. Hinch did yesterday, using two starters. Right now, Hinch is going with just a four-man rotation due to a favorable upcoming schedule that has more off days than normal. This will allow for the Astros to have their best pitchers on the mound more often. They are 19-4 in Verlander's last 23 road starts.

Seattle was able to get to 89 wins LY by going 14-1 in extra inning games and 36-21 in games decided by one run. They've already won five one-run games this season and are 2-0 in extra innings. But again, I feel their luck is about to run out. There's just no way they can maintain the offensive pace they set to start the season. Starters are still 9-0 this season, but Felix Hernandez isn't the same old "King Felix" anymore. He left his last start after just one inning due to flu-like symptoms and had already given up two runs on three hits. Hernandez has a 1.58 WHIP so far. Houston is the far better team here and the pricing speaks volumes. 6* Houston

8* LA Clippers (8:00 ET): The Warriors weren't the Warriors this year. Sure, they won 57 games and actually posted the highest scoring average (117.7 PPG) under HC Steve Kerr. But their vaunted reputation clearly preceded itself as they were a bust at the betting window, posting a 35-46-1 ATS record, the third worst mark in the entire league. Only the disappointing Lakers and hideous Knicks were worse to bet on in the regular season. It's an old rival that Golden State draws in the opening round of the playoffs, the Clippers, and not surprisingly the line is big for Game 1. I'm taking the points. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers were one of the best teams to bet on this season, going 45-36-1 ATS. That was the third BEST ATS mark in the league (only Milwaukee & Dallas were better). Doc Rivers did arguably his best coaching job this season, especially considering the front office trading away Tobias Harris was supposed to signal the end of any kind of playoff run. But it didn't. Danilo Gallinari posted career bests in points per game, field goal percentage and three-point percentage. While they might lack a "true" superstar, the Clippers are among the deepest teams in the league as they led the league in bench points (53.2 PPG) by a wide margin.

Golden State took three of the four regular season meetings, the last two both coming by convincing margins (18 and 27 pts). The Clippers did cover the first two though and were 11-5 SU/ATS in all division games. They've also covered 13 out of the last 16 division road games. The Warriors actually lost straight up 11 times in the regular season and were just 16-24-1 ATS at Oracle Arena. The spread here is larger than it was for either regular season matchup here in Oakland.  The Clippers were also a top five team in scoring this year. One thing worth monitoring with the Warriors is that they were a far worse offensive team w/ DeMarcus Cousins on the court. They also slipped defensively as well. Too many points here. 8* LA Clippers 

10* Over Cardinals/Reds (7:10 ET): Friday was an off-day for both the Cards and Reds as this abbreviated two-game series will be played down in Monterrey, Mexico. Travelling outside the country might not be what either team had in mind right now, considering how the respective last series went. St. Louis is coming off a very impressive four-game sweep of the Dodgers and has won five in a row overall. Cincinnati got off to a terrible 1-8 start, but it turns out that hosting Miami was as easy as it looked on paper. The Reds swept that three-game series, holding the Marlins to a total of ONE run. Things figure to be a lot different against the Redbirds, however, as they have done plenty of scoring in recent days. Take the Over here.

St. Louis had scored exactly four runs in four straight games, including the first two vs. the Dodgers, before exploding for 7 and 11 the last two days. You would have made a nice profit betting on the Cardinals in that last series as - despite playing at home - they were ML underdogs in all four games. I expect the offensive surge to continue tonight against the Reds' Tanner Roark, who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.929 WHIP after two starts. Roark failed to go more than five frames in either start. He has a 6.58 ERA in seven career appearances vs. St. Louis. 

Perhaps no remaining series will go as easy for the Reds as the last one did. They outscored Miami 19-1. It was much needed given how the season started. They had failed to top five runs in any of their first nine games and were shutout four times. Even after the series vs. Miami, they've still scored more than five runs in only one game, but I like their chances here against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is 37 years old and not off to the best of starts to 2019. While he looked good at home vs. San Diego, he struggled on the road vs. Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, Wainwright's career ERA vs. the Reds is 5.09 in 29 appearances. The ball will travel in this stadium the next two days. 10* Over Cardinals/Reds 

10* Under Magic/Raptors (5:05 ET): You shouldn't go underestimating the Magic in this series. They have won 22 of their last 31 games and since the All-Star Break the only team in the East w/ more victories is top-seeded Milwaukee. The Magic have played exceptionally well on the defensive end in the second half, posting the league's top efficiency rating since the Break! With Toronto's poor playoff history, particularly in Game 1's, an outright upset is definitely in the realm of possibility here. But I feel that the Under is the best play in Game 1 of this series. 

Now the Raptors did close the regular season by scoring 110+ points in nine straight games. That's a franchise record and they've gone 7-1 SU/ATS the L8 games w/ the only loss coming by two to a desperate Charlotte team. A number of franchise records (on offense) were set in the regular season, but this is now the playoffs and we know how Toronto struggles when we get to this point. Incredibly, they are 2-12 all-time in Game 1's, which includes a 1-9 mark in the first round. That lone victory came last year against Washington. I don't think we'll see the same level of offensive prowess from the Raptors here that we did in the regular season.

Like Toronto, the Magic seemingly closed the regular season w/ an offensive barrage. Their last seven games have all gone Over the total. But that, and what Toronto did over roughly the same timeframe, set us up to go the opposite way here. On April 1st, the Raptors did beat the Magic 121-109 here at Air Canada Centre. But the season's first three matchups all went Under and saw Orlando cover (including two outright upsets). The Magic only average 104.9 PPG on the road, so Under is the way to go here. 10* Under Magic/Raptors 

Note: this play stands regardless of Joel Embiid's status! Obviously, we'd feel even stronger about Brooklyn were Embiid not to suit up for the 76ers.

8* Brooklyn (2:30 ET): The Nets made the playoffs for the 1st time since 2014-15, but aren't really getting much of any respect as oddsmakers view them as the weakest team in the entire field. I don't necessarily agree w/ the sentiment (I think Detroit is worse) and think we can use the opinion to our benefit here in Game 1 against Philadelphia. While neither playing on the road nor the underdog role suited Brooklyn particularly well in the regular season, this is too many points to pass up given they split four matchups with the Sixers and were 3-1 ATS. Take the points. 

It turns out that trusting the famed "process" in Philadelphia has paid dividends as for the second straight year the Sixers won 50+ games. Last year's team did make the second round of the playoffs, so the expectation coming into this season was for them to take "the next step." But I'm not sure that's going to happen. Part of the reason I say that has to do w/ the fact the Sixers' point differential was only fifth best in the East this year, so a third place finish should be considered a little fortuitous. Over the course of the year, the Sixers outscored teams by less than three points per game. 

As I said earlier, these teams split four regular season matchups, but Brooklyn was 3-1 ATS. They covered both times at home (won by 25, lost by 2), then later pulled an upset here as 5.5-pt road underdogs. All three of those games were played before X-Mas and the Sixers did take the final game, handily, by a score of 123-110. That was just over two weeks ago and Philly shot the ball very well. Brooklyn has been in "playoff mode" for some time now (just to ensure they got here) while Philadelphia largely got to coast over the last month. That, to me, signals the favorite could get caught "flat footed" here for Game 1. 8* Brooklyn

9* Houston (10:10 ET): I've been waiting for a matchup like this where I could begin to fade Seattle, who is off to a shocking 13-2 start. I say "shocking" because they are one of the teams I had earmarked for regression in 2019. Last year's 89-73 WL record was a total fraud as the team was outscored by 34 runs, giving them an "expected" win total of 77. No team in all of MLB had a bigger gap between actual and expected wins LY, positive or negative. The Mariners were able to get to that record by going an unfathomable 14-1 in extra inning games, not to mention 36-21 in games decided by one run. Starting today though, their "luck" is about to run out. 

Like Seattle, Houston has won six straight coming into this series. The Astros haven't been quite as dominant as the Mariners so far, who have scored the most runs in all of baseball and thus have a +42 run differential through 15 games. But again, Seattle has still been fortunate to win five one-run games (tied for most) and they are one of three teams to be 2-0 in extra inning games. So that's now a 41-22 mark in one-run games since the start of last season & 16-1 mark in extra innings! Ridiculous! Now, their rally yday (won 7-6 in 10 innings) brought me good fortune as I had the Over against KC. But now it's time to fade.

Houston just completed a perfect 6-0 homestand, sweeping the A's and Yankees, two playoff teams from a year ago. Unlike Seattle, they had Thursday off, which is a nice advantage coming into this weekend series. The Astros will send out Wade Miley, a former Mariner, who has a 2.89 ERA against his former team. Miley faces an offense that's on a record-setting pace, but at the same time it has to eventually slow down. The Mariners starting rotation is a perfect 9-0 so far, including Wade LeBlanc's 2-0. But LeBlanc hasn't exactly pitched "well" w/ a 4.77 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in those starts. He has a 5.65 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. the Astros. 9* Houston 

8* Under Blues/Jets (9:35 ET): Anyone thinking it would be an easy "course correction" for Winnipeg following a poor finish to the regular season obviously better think again. The Jets dropped Game 1 to the Blues, at home, by a score of 2-1. The Jets have now six of eight going back to the end of March and most troubling of all is that includes four losses on home ice. The Game 1 loss was the most "back breaking" type possible as they'd scored first, only to give up two third period goals, including the game winner w/ just over two minutes left in regulation. 

I don't have enough confidence to back the Jets in this critical contest, but I do see another low scoring battle on tap for Game 2. Neither team got a ton of shots off in Game 1. Obviously, it was a 1-0 game heading into the third period. The two power plays combined to go 0 for 4, which continues a trend we saw in the regular season meetings. In five games vs. the Blues this season, Winnipeg is just 3 for 19 w/ the man advantage. St. Louis is 3 for 16. 

Winnipeg actually has the lowest win percentage among the 16 playoff teams when leading after two periods (.743). So Game 1 was not anything new. But it was for St. Louis, who had the second WORST win percentage in the league when trailing after two periods (2-29, .065). The number of shots allowed by the Jets could be a problem moving forward, but the Blues are stingy, ranking in the top five in goals allowed and top 10 in penalty killing.They were a strong Under team all year and are 43-19-4 Under their L66 games as a road underdog. They are also 4-0 Under the L4x being a playoff underdog. The Under is 5-0-1 the L6x times Winnipeg has been a playoff favorite. 8* Under Blues/Jets

10* Under Indians/Royals (8:15 ET): Kansas City has been a clear 'Over' team so far this season w/ a 9-2-1 record that way. Their first game of the season went Under too, so that's a 9-1-1 Over mark the L11 games. In fact, I just played the Over in their game yday vs. Seattle, which saw them blow a 6-3 lead and lose 7-6 (total was 10.0). It was also the Royals' 10th consecutive loss after 2-0 start. Cleveland's start to the season has gone in a much different direction. They've won 6 of 7 and most of their games have been low-scoring. Look for this to be an "Indians type game" and for the Under to come in. 

Cleveland is averaging just 3.6 runs per game w/ a team batting average of .198. Only two teams in all of baseball are hitting for a lower average and, ironically, it's the two teams they just faced - Toronto and Detroit. Not surprisingly, the Under was 5-2 in those two series. With a struggling offense, the Tribe has been fortunate that it's pitching staff is getting the job done. Opponents are scoring just 2.9 rpg for the year and they held the Blue Jays & Tigers to an average of 1.7 rpg. After struggling in his first start of 2019, Carlos Carrasco was pretty dominant vs. Toronto, striking out 12 in five innings while allowing only two runs. He gets the baseball tonight. Cleveland has given up just 35 runs in 12 games, the 2nd fewest in all of MLB, and five of those runs were unearned.

This will be a much different series for Kansas City, at least in terms of the opponent. The results may very well be the same as they were against Seattle, who swept them in four games here at Kauffman Stadium. They allowed 32 runs in four games to the highest scoring team in all of baseball. Again, that's almost the same number of runs Cleveland has allowed all season! But as noted above, the Indians have a much weaker offense than the Mariners, one that Royals' pitching should be able to "control." Through three outings, Friday starter Brad Keller has a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. Both KC Unders this season have come w/ him on the bump. Going back to the end of last season, Keller has not allowed a HR in seven consecutive starts. 10* Under Indians/Royals

10* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): When it comes to teams without home ice advantage being favored to win in Round 1, the Penguins were probably the pick of most. But they dropped Game 1 here in New York, in overtime, by a score of 4-3. It was a game the Pens never led as every time they tied it up, the Islanders would re-take the lead. The pattern throughout the game was the Isles go up by a goal, then the Pens tie it up. Pittsburgh now faces the possibility of an 0-2 deficit, which is not overwhelming, but something they'd certainly hope to avoid. I'm coming back w/ them in Game 2. 

The Penguins did have the edge in shots on goal, 44-33, in Game 1. Getting off that many shots and scoring three times is actually an encouraging sign against a team like the Islanders, who were #1 in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. For whatever reasons, Pittsburgh has not fared well in close games this season, posting a .452 win percentage in one-goal affairs and they win only 59.6% of the team when scoring first. But I don't think any serious conclusions can be drawn after just one game. I still consider Pittsburgh to be the betting favorite for Game 2 (as do the oddsmakers). 

I think it is important to note what a surprise the Isles were this season. They went from giving up the most goals in an 82-game season in HISTORY to #1 in the league in goals allowed. That's a remarkable transformation under HC Barry Trotz. But no playoff team had a worse Corsi For percentage in the regular season (47.9) and that number was actually sixth worst in the entire league! Come playoff time, controlling the puck is critical. The Islanders got away w/ not doing so in Game 1, just like they have most of this year. But can it continue? My guess is "no." Only 47.7% of the Isles' even strength shifts start in the offensive zone, which is a bad number. 10* Pittsburgh

6* Calgary (10:05 ET): It's been exactly 20 years since the Flames entered the playoffs as a top seed. The last time it happened (1988-89), they won the Stanley Cup. Since that time, they've won only three division titles. In what they hope is not an ominous precident, they were out in the first round of the playoffs each of those three years. But this time should clearly be different. The Flames were pretty easily the best team in the West this season, outscoring opponents by 62 goals. No other team in the Conference had a goal differential better than +28. It should be an easy win for the home team here in Game 1.

Having the home ice advantage is pretty big for Calgary. They averaged 4.05 goals per game at home during the regular season. Consider that the Lightning had the highest goals per game average we've seen in the league in 20+ years and the Flames outscored them when it came to home games. (When they eventually have to go to Colorado, Calgary will be in good shape too. They were tied for fewest goals allowed on the road this season). Colorado is not a great road team as is evident by the fact they went 17-16-8 in the regular season.

The Flames won all three regular season meetings against the Avalanche, including one where they were outshot 35-16. Sure enough, the two games here in Calgary saw them score a total of 11 goals. The Avs did a nice job of getting here. While they may boast the top line in the sport, Mikko Rantanen has not played in a game since March 21st. Arguably, the Avs have the worst depth of any playoff team. After taking their foot "off the gas" a little bit down the stretch, the Flames will start this series w/ a big win in front of what should be a very fired up crowd. 6* Calgary

6* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox are off to a shockingly poor 3-9 start, not even resembling the club that completely dominated MLB is 2018. On their way to a fourth World Series crown this century, the Red Sox won 108 regular season games and finished up a stunning 42.5 units overall. Now, they're in the hole a league worst -11.1 units after losing to Toronto (7-5) on Tuesday. But I expect them to bounce back tonight at Fenway Park as this team is too talented to keep losing this many games.

Aside from the seven runs they scored on Tuesday, the Blue Jays have not exactly been hitting the cover off the ball to start the season. Tuesday's game did mark a new season-high in runs scored for any game. In 8 of 12 games, they've been held to three runs or fewer. Collectively, they are batting a putrid .193. While 3-0 in starts made by Matt Shoemaker, they're 1-8 w/ any other starter on the mound. Tonight, it'll be Aaron Sanchez getting the baseball. While he has a 1.64 ERA and 1.182 WHIP after two starts, Sanchez has a 4.06 ERA in 19 career games vs. Boston. 

The Red Sox offense is performing nowhere near LY's level, having been held to 1 run or less in three games and shutout twice. But lack of scoring is a secondary concern to the number of runs they're giving up right now. Only Baltimore has allowed more runs so far this season. Nathan Eovaldi will try to put a halt to that tonight as he looks to improve his team start record to 3-0 this year. Eovaldi has faced Toronto four times in his career and no Blue Jays hitter has more than five hits against him. Dustin Pedroia is now back in the Boston lineup, which should help the offense. Furthermore, Boston is 27-10 its last 37 games vs. Toronto, including 10-2 the L12 at Fenway. 6* Boston

8* Over Mariners/Royals (1:15 ET): Seattle has absolutely shocked me w/ this start to the season. Not only are they 12-2, but they've put 110 runs on the board in 14 games for a MLB-leading average of 7.9 rpg. So even though they put six more on the board in last night's win (also KC's 9th straight loss), the M's scoring average actually went DOWN. But the game still went Over (6-5 final), something that all but three Seattle games have done this season (11-1-2). I'll call for that Over streak to continue this afternoon. 

Seattle has scored 6 or more runs in all but two games this season. That is pretty incredible. They are the only team besides the 2002 Indians to homer at least once in each of the first 14 games, dating back to 1908. Their 34 total HRs tie the 2000 St. Louis Cardinals for the most EVER through 14 games. It's impressive to match those marks as the 2002 Indians and 2000 Cards were part of an "enhanced era." The pitcher they'll face today, at least initially, gave up two home runs in his first start. That would be Jorge Lopez, who hasn't been terrible for the Royals, but he hasn't exactly been great either (4.09 ERA, 1.364 WHIP). Both starts went Over. 

A problem for Lopez in both starts was a lack of run support. He was on the wrong side of a no-hit bid that went into the 7th inning in his first start. His second was a no-decision. I should mention that the Royals' bullpen has been pretty bad so far w/ a 7.04 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. But I expect the Royals offense to perform well against Mike Leake, whose 2.92 ERA is a little misleading considering his WHIP is 1.46. Leake has allowed plenty of baserunners in his two starts (18) plus he gave up two home runs his last time out. The Over is also 2 for 2 w/ him on the mound. 8* Over Mariners/Royals

analysis soon

analysis soon

10* Under Penguins/Islanders (7:30 ET): I think that given how surprising the Islanders' success was this season, a lot of folks are going to be taking the Penguins to win this series. But be careful about that. The Isles ranked 1st in the league in goals allowed, giving up just 2.33 goals per game. All but three other teams gave up at least 25 more goals over the 82-game regular season schedule. Despite being division rivals, these teams have not met since December. Five of the last six meetings here in New York have stayed Under the total, including both this season. I'm on the Under for Game 1. 

Pittsburgh, as per usual, ranked near the top of the league in goals scored (6th). But roughly 21% of their goals came from the power play. In the playoffs, they figure to have far less chances w/ a man advantage. In the two regular season visits to Brooklyn this year, the Pens were held to 2 goals each time and that was while going 2 for 6 on the PP. We shouldn't have to worry at all about the Islanders' PP as it ranked 29th in the regular season, converting at just 14.5%. The Under went 50-27-5 in all Isles games this year, including 25-8-2 when facing an opponent w/ a winning record. 

The Islanders should have a clear edge between the pipes in this series as they have two strong netminders. Robin Lehner had a .934 even strength save percentage in the regular season while Thomas Greiss was slightly better (.937), albeit w/ a slightly lighter workload. Lehner is getting the Game 1 start. In two starts vs. Pittsburgh this year, he stopped 46 of 49 shots. Down the stretch, Pittsburgh was an Under team as 8 of their last 10 games have ended that way. I have faith goalie Matt Murray will be better tonight than he was for most of the regular season. 10* Under Penguins/Islanders

analysis soon

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): With two games remaining, there's only one spot left in the Eastern Conference playoffs and it will go to one of three teams: Detroit, Miami or Charlotte. The Pistons are in "pole position" right now, one game ahead of the other two teams. Charlotte has won three straight, including a key win over Detroit on Sunday that enabled them to stay alive. The Hornets basically have to win out and tonight's game against sorry Cleveland looks to be an easy one. Overall, the Hornets are 8-2 ATS the L10 games. The Cavs have dropped nine in a row straight up and tonight is their final game of the year. Expect little effort from them. Lay the points. 

Believe it or not, the Cavs may end up slightly worse this season than they did the season after LeBron James first left town (2010-11). At 19-62 SU, they may not have the worst record in the league (the Knicks do), but they have the worst point differential in the league at -9.4 per game. A loss here would mean they'd finish w/ the same record as that 2010-11 team, which was outscored by 9.0 PPG. The Cavs showed little fight on Sunday when they lost here at home to San Antonio, 112-90 as 8.5-pt dogs. There's a good chance Kevin Love won't play tonight. 

The number here is obviously inflated due to Charlotte's need to win, but it's still justified in my eyes. Note the Hornets were favored by a similar number (actually more!) the first time they visited this season. Granted, they lost that game outright, but that was also back in November. The stakes are far higher now and there won't be any kind of letdown. They did beat the Cavs twice - by 32 and 11 points - at home. The Cavs' home arena (currently Quicken Loans Arena) will be renamed Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse for next season. Call it whatever you want, the team is very bad and ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Charlotte

7* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): Really like the Reds today. Yes, what was supposed to be a breakout season for them has started poorly. They have lost eight in a row since winning on Opening Day. There are multiple reasons for this, but a key one seems to be "bad luck." Only one time have the Reds lost a game by more than two runs this year. Half of their losses have come by exactly 1 run. I believe this series is where they get back on track as they'll host the lowly Marlins for three games. Miami was projected to be the worst team in the NL this year and I've seen nothing so far to dissuade me from that projection ringing true.

The Reds have already been shut out four times this year, three of those by Pittsburgh. But getting to face the struggling Jose Urena may be the cure for what ails this line. In two starts, Urena has a 9.34 ERA and 2.076 WHIP. Both starts were at home and saw him allow a total of 11 runs (2 unearned) in just 8 2/3 IP. He's been knocked around for 16 hits. Not surprisingly, the Marlins lost both games. Despite the home team's offensive struggles here, Great American Ballpark is known to favor the hitters, so I wouldn't expect a strong showing for Urena here.

Pitching has not been a problem for Cincinnati, especially when Luis Castillo is on the bump. While he's yet to record a victory, he owns a 1.42 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in his two starts. He was the starter on Opening Day, the lone game the Reds have won this year. Castillo was then a hard luck loser here at home against Milwaukee last Wednesday as he allowed just one run in 7 IP (1-0 final). He's due to get a win and a Marlins team that is just 3-7 is the right opponent for that to happen. Miami is only hitting .197 on the road. 7* Cincinnati

10* Virginia (9:20 ET): Those who follow my NCAA Tournament picks regularly know that I constantly tout the importance of defense, particularly efficiency, this time of year. If you were still on the fence about believing me, then look no further than this National Championship matchup which pits the #1 team in scoring defense (Virginia) against the #1 team in defensive efficiency (Texas Tech). For the record, Virginia is 5th in efficiency while Texas Tech is third in points allowed. Points definitely figure to be at a premium Monday night, but ultimately (pun intended!) I feel that it will be Virginia cutting down the nets. They have been the more consistent team all season and were my pick to win it all before this Tournament started. 

It's not just Virginia's entire body of work that has me on them here. The Hoos have been very good in this Tournament as well. As per usual, we start w/ defense. They are giving up only 55.5 PPG for the season, 58.6 PPG in the Tournament. Remember though, they were taken to overtime by Purdue. Yes, the last three victories have all been by five points or less. But we are getting what I feel is an extremely good value here as this line would have been much higher had these teams played a couple weeks ago. Also, the Cavaliers are a perfect 11-0 ATS the L2 seasons when on the road and coming off a SU win where they did not cover. That's the situation they're in here. 

Tip your cap to Texas Tech, who has been very kind to me in this Tournament. They were a *10* ULTIMATE POWER release when they upset Gonzaga in the Elite 8, then my *10* Game of the Year when they upset Michigan State. They're a perfect 5-0 ATS now in the Big Dance w/ all but one win (Gonzaga) coming by double digits. They are giving up fewer PPG (55.8) in the Tournament than Virginia. But, the irony here is that with the defensive numbers basically being a draw, it could come down to the fact Virginia is #2 in the country in offensive efficiency (Tex Tech just 28th). Virginia has been the better team all year and getting them as basically a "pick 'em" is a big deal. 10* Virginia

10* Under Dodgers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): The Dodgers pulled off a Sunday night by besting Colorado 12-6. The Rockies are certainly an opponent they have manhandled through the years and a part of that is taking advantage of the opportunities Coors Field provides for opposing hitters. The Dodgers scored 29 runs in the three games there and now average 8.2 rpg for the season, which is #1 in baseball. They'll face a starter in Miles Mikolas who has not exactly been dominant in his two starts for St. Louis. But you can't help but think there will some offensive decline moving forward for Dodger Blue. Take the Under here. 

While the Dodgers have won five straight and are off to an 8-2 start, the Cardinals are scuffling a bit at 4-5. They did down San Diego yday by a score of 4-1. That result halted an Over streak of four straight games for the Redbirds, who are now 6-2-1 to the Over this season. Both teams are among the leaders in going Over this season w/ the Dodgers 8-2. But, again, I can't help but think BOTH offenses are due to cool off a bit shortly. Remember that Dodgers' pitching also stands to benefit from leaving the confines of Coors Field. 

I mentioned earlier that the start for St. Louis, Mikolas, isn't exactly off to the best start here in 2019. But the same cannot be said for Dodgers' starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-0 w/ a 2.08 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Ryu has looked good in both starts, giving up a total of just three runs in 13 IP and he has 13 strikeouts against zero walks. He did allow a HR both times out. But the Cardinals are batting just .227 as a team so far. Incredibly, the Dodgers have scored 10 or more runs in game four times already this season, but they've "got" to cool off. Let it be known that both of Mikolas' starts were on the road. The Under is 5-2 his L7 home starts against teams w/ winning records and he posted a 2.17 ERA/0.974 WHIP here at Busch Stadium last year. 10* Under Dodgers/Cardinals

10* Over Nets/Pacers (5:05 ET): Brooklyn recorded perhaps its biggest win of the season yday, beating Milwaukee 133-128 on the road. The win brought them back to .500 (40-40 SU) on the year and more importantly back into a sixth place tie w/ Orlando. There are still five teams vying for the final three available spots in the Eastern Conference, but the Nets would seem to have a nice cushion given they're 1.5 games ahead of ninth place Miami (who they play in the regular season finale). But still a win here in Indiana would be huge. But the Pacers won't make it easy on 'em. 

Indiana is off a bad loss to Boston, who will likely be their first round opponent in the playoffs. Right now the Pacers are 5th in the East, significantly ahead of the Nets, by 7 games. But what they are playing for right now is home court advantage in the first round against the Celtics. Losing 117-97 (here at home) Friday did the no favors as it put them a game behind Boston in the standings. So motivation won't be lacking on either side Sunday. You have to expect the Pacers will shoot a lot better here than they did vs. Boston, who held them to a 41.3 FG% for the game. 

Indiana played good defense in a home and home sweep of the Pistons earlier in the week, but other than that - in the last five games - they've allowed other three opponents to all shoot above 50%. Brooklyn obviously had no difficulty scoring yday, putting up 133 pts on the team that leads the league in defensive efficiency. It was the 8th time in the last 9 games that the Nets scored at least 110 points. At the same time, they often struggle defensively, which is evident by the fact they've given up at least 115 pts in seven of those last nine games. The Over is 5-1 in their last six road games while the Over is 4-0 in Indiana's last four home games. 10* Over Nets/Pacers

8* Oklahoma City (3:30 ET): The Thunder will definitely NOT have the home court advantage in the first round of the NBA playoffs, but that doesn't mean there's nothing left to play for in these last three games. Mostly, it's what they are trying to AVOID. That would be finishing in eighth place and having to play Golden State in the first round. Right now, they are in seventh, but just one-half game ahead of the Spurs, who are in Cleveland today for a game against the lowly Cavaliers. So winning should be a huge priority here for OKC and I think they come through by delivering a big win on national TV Sunday. Lay the points. 

Eliminated from playoff contention, Minnesota is reduced to a "spoiler role" and it's something that they have embraced. They upset Miami on Friday, winning 111-109 as three-point home dogs. That put a severe damper on the Heat's playoff hopes. The T'wolves also recently beat Golden State (as 10-pt dogs) here at home, which was a *10* Game of the Week selection for me. So I do respect them. But I don't expect motivation to be as high here as it was for Golden State or even Miami two nights ago. Yes, it's a national TV game. But let's not forget that the T'wolves have covered only 6 of their last 19 games. They are 0-3 vs. the Thunder this season. 

Oklahoma City has won two straight by double digits, including a 123-110 win over Detroit on Friday. That came on the heels of a 119-103 win over the Lakers where Russell Westbrook had 20 pts, 20 rebounds and 21 assists, making him just the 2nd player in league history to have a 20-20-20 game. This is the third season in a row that Westbrook will average a triple double, which is incredible. But the Thunder are more than just Westbrook as it was Paul George leading the way w/ 30 pts vs. the Pistons. The Thunder also have a massive edge defensively in this matchup as they rank 4th in the league in efficiency while the T'wolves are 22nd. 8* Oklahoma City

10* Houston (2:10 ET): The Astros came into this series at just 2-5 on the year while Oakland had won five of six, including an impressive series vs. the Red Sox (took 3 of 4 games). But it's been Houston flexing its muscles this weekend, taking the first two games by scores of 3-2 and 6-0. It's important to note that the 'Stros hadn't played a home game before this weekend while the A's had gotten hot at home and hadn't played on the road since opening the year with two games in Japan. I see Houston finishing off the three-game sweep here as starter Brad Peacock was dominant his first time out. 

Peacock threw 6 2/3 innings last Monday and allowed just one run on two hits. Houston won the game 2-1 in Arlington. Despite getting off to the fast start, Oakland's lineup has not been scoring a ton. After being shutout yday, that's four of the last five games they've failed to score more than three runs. There have only been three games so far where they've score more than four runs and one was the season opener. So Peacock should be in good shape here. Note Houston pitching has allowed more than four runs only one time this year. 

The A's will go w/ Michael Fiers, who is off B2B dominant starts at home. He's thrown 12 scoreless innings while allowing just six hits. But to say Fiers has been "overpowering" during this time would be a misnomer. In fact, he has only five strikeouts against three walks. It should also be pointed out that Fiers struggled when he pitched over in Japan against Seattle, allowing five runs in three innings. The homefield edge has definitely proven to be significant for Houston in this series and I look for them to improve to 40-18 the L58 head to head matchups vs. Oakland. 10* Houston 

8* Under Twins/Phillies (1:05 ET): The loss of the DH is an obvious disadvantage for the American League team anytime they have to go to a NL park for Interleague play. But the Twins didn't have any problems at the plate yday as they rolled the Phillies 6-2. For the Phillies, it was just their second loss of the year as well as the first time they'd been held under five runs. I don't expect Minnesota to score as many today, but Philly should be held in check as well. I base this off the starting pitching matchup as we have Jose Berrios taking on Zach Eflin. Take the Under here.

Berrios has already started two games for the Twins and both went well. The first was more impressive as he struck out 10 on Opening Day vs. Cleveland across 7 2/3 scoreless innings (allowed only 2 hits). But it was another quality start on Tuesday, this time on the road, as he held the Royals to three runs in seven innings. Theoretically, Berrios should benefit here from facing a NL lineup that sends the pitcher to bat. Even though the Phillies are strong 1 through 8 in the order, I feel Berrios is up to the challenge. The Under is 7-3-1 in his L11 Interleague starts. 

Philadelphia will go w/ Eflin in this spot as he's looking to build off the five shutout innings he delivered against Washington on Tuesday. He struck out nine and walked only one batter as the Phils rolled to an 8-2 victory that day. Eflin allowed just three hits as well. He was a much better starter at home than on the road last season, so this is a good spot for him. As I mention in my analysis for Friday's game (had the Phillies), the Twins struggled mightily on the road last year, going just 29-52 while averaging 4.1 rpg. The Under is 5-1 the last six times Eflin has started on exactly four days' rest. 8* Under Twins/Phillies

10* Texas Tech (8:49 ET): The Red Raiders were a signature *10* ULTIMATE POWER release for me in the Elite 8 when they upset top seeded Gonzaga. They remain a live dog moving forward, thanks to #1 ranking in defensive efficiency. This is the key metric that I've leaned on in past tournaments and Texas Tech beating Gonzaga (who was #1 in the country in offensive efficiency) was the latest example of it working out. As soon as the Red Raiders moved on Saturday night, I knew I was going take them again here, regardless of the Duke-Michigan State winner. The fact Michigan State won I believe is a better deal for the Red Raiders as they don't have the offensive weapons that Duke does. Take the points. 

Since a poor 1st half in the first round game against Bradley, Michigan State has been very good, outscoring its opponents by 50 points. They outlasted Duke 68-67, sparked by Cassius Winston's 20 points. But Sparty is not a deep team. Only seven players saw action against Duke w/ one of them (Gabe Brown) playing just three minutes. Had Xavier Tillman not gotten into early foul trouble, it's likely Brown wouldn't have even seen the floor. All other MSU starters played at least 38 minutes w/ Winston playing the whole 40. I realize the Spartans have won 14 out of their last 15 games (only loss by 1 pt!) w/ three wins over Michigan. But Texas Tech, save for Duke, will be their toughest opponent to date. 

Remember that Texas Tech had no problem beating Michigan in the Sweet 16 themselves. They crushed the Wolverines, holding them to 1 of 19 shooting from three-point range, in a 63-44 final. Michigan State's three wins over Michigan were by a combined 24 points. The Red Raiders have held their four tournament opponents to an average of 57 PPG and the last three have all been against top 25 offenses. They just held the #1 offense in the country (Gonzaga) to 69 pts on 42.4% shooting. I don't see Michigan State topping those numbers, so I'm clearly siding w/ the underdog in this one. 10* Texas Tech

10* Over Hurricanes/Flyers (7:05 ET): Carolina nabbed its first playoff berth since '09 by beating New Jersey 3-1 on Thursday. They'll likely end up as a Wild Card, though they could move up to third place in the Metro by winning tonight and the Penguins losing (in regulation) to the Rangers (unlikely). Look for the Canes to bring the offense tonight in Philadelphia, who has given up a total of 13 goals its last two games, both of them bad losses. Inconsistent goaltending has plagued the Flyers all season and is a significant reason why this is their last game of the season.

I'm not convinced that Carolina will last very long in the playoffs, but one thing to like about this club is that they average a league-high 34.5 shots per game. Moreover, they have the best shot differential in the league. The Under has gone 6-1 in their last seven games, but the one exception was a home game against these Flyers, which they won 5-2. The Canes have totaled seven goals in their last two games as well, so the number of goals is finally matching the number of shots, which was NOT the case early in the season. The Over has cashed in five of their last six visits to Philly. 

The Flyers were flat out embarrassed their last game. They gave up five first period goals to St. Louis on Thursday, the first time the franchise has done that since 1997. They lost 7-3 and that was on the heels of a 6-2 loss in Dallas. I do expect better effort in this final game of the year as it's at home and the players openly talked about being embarrassed about the effort in St. Louis. The Over is 4-1 the Flyers' last five games w/ them allowing 25 goals and at least three in every game. They are 0-3 vs. Carolina this season, allowing 13 goals. So we know Philly is likely to give up their "fair share" here. After all, they are 29th in the league in goals allowed. But expect them to score a few of their own as well. 10* Over Hurricanes/Flyers

7* Cleveland (4:10 ET): We're looking to make it 3 for 3 in this series w/ the Indians. Thursday, it was Trevor Bauer taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning in what ended up being a 4-1. Friday was a 3-2 win, in walk-off fashion, with Carlos Santana delivering the game-winning HR. While Cleveland's offense has been fairly anemic to this point, they did hit two HR's yday, doubling their previous total from the first six games. As I've detailed each of the last two days, Toronto is - in many ways - the perfect opponent for Cleveland right now as they have been every bit as anemic at the plate to start the year.

Carlos Carrasco was abysmal in his first start, giving up six runs and 10 hits in just 4 1/3 innings. The Indians lost that game 9-3 to Minnesota, but starting pitching has been outstanding so far in this series w/ Bauer and Shane Bieber limiting the Jays to three hits total in the two games w/ 17 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Carrasco should bounce back here against a Blue Jays lineup that is hitting a collective .190 so far this season, including 3 for 30 in the 1st innings w/ 12 strikeouts. Yesterday marked the sixth time they've been held to three runs or fewer in eight games. There have been four games where they entered the sixth w/ no hits! So, like I said earlier, Carrasco should bounce back here. 

 Toronto has not been a good road team the last several seasons, going 67-97 overall, including 2-6 here at Progressive Field. Saturday starter Thomas Pannone doesn't seem likely to reverse that trend as he's only in the rotation due to a demotion (Sean Reid-Foley). Pannone had been working out of the bullpen and had one shaky and one effective appearance. He may not go long and that's a problem considering his departure weakens an already suspect Blue Jays bullpen that had not been carrying its weight compared to the starting rotation. The Indians have cleaned up in day games the L3 seasons, going 77-46. 7* Cleveland 

10* LA Angels (4:05 ET): The Halos snapped a five-game losing skid last night, beating Texas 3-1. Mike Trout hit a pair of homers to lead his team to victory and now for the first time all year they'll try and win two straight. I like their chances. While the offense simply hasn't been "there" for the Angels so far, they should break out today against Rangers starter Drew Smyly, who allowed six baserunners and a homer in just three innings Monday. That was his first start since the end of the 2016 season and it required 58 pitches to get through the first two innings. It's a little surprising that Texas "only" lost that game, 2-1. 

Both Saturday starters would seem to be question marks heading into the game. The Angels' Tyler Skaggs only lasted 4 2/3 innings in his first start of '19. There are concerns of "forearm fatigue" w/ Skaggs, though he looked good early against Oakland on Sunday, retiring the first eight batters he saw in order. But after that, things got a little more dicey as he needed 33 pitches to get through the third inning and was pulled after just 86 pitches total. Like Smyly, Skaggs allowed a HR and his team lost the game 2-1. But I thought Skaggs looked the better of the two and he has the advantage of having dominated Texas twice last season.

In two starts vs. the Rangers last year, Skaggs went 2-0 w/ a 0.82 ERA. He had 13 strikeouts in 11 IP and tossed six shutout innings when he faced them here at home. Obviously, he's going to need some run support, but against Smyly, Trout and the Angels lineup should deliver. The Rangers were not projected to do well this season, so a 5-2 start should be taken w/ the proverbial "grain of salt." The Angels have taken 14 of the last 21 head to head meetings and 6-1 the last seven times they've played host. Texas did come in and win the first game on Thursday, but it's difficult for me to see them winning the series. 10* LA Angels

8* Over Heat/T'wolves (8:05 ET): As badly as Miami needs this game, I'm not convinced they deserve to be favored in Minneapolis. But if they are going to win, it likely would be as a result of some poor T'wolves defense. The T'wolves did just hold Dallas to 108 pts in a two-point road win Wednesday night. However, in the four games prior, they allowed 122, 130, 118 and 132. This is a team giving up 113.9 PPG for the year and the Heat probably are set to improve (offensively) after five straight games of scoring 105 pts or less. Take the Over in this one. 

The Heat just got swept in a home and home by Boston and that really has hurt them in the playoff race. Of the four teams battling for the final three spots in the Eastern Conference (all separated by one game), they are the ones on the "outside looking in" right now. They allowed 110 and 112 pts to the Celtics, which may not seem like a lot, but it's also a number Minnesota can easily reach (they average 114.8 PPG at home). Before losing to the Celtics by 10 (112-102) at home Wednesday night, the Heat had been playing good defense, holding five straight opponents below a 43.0 FG%. But they're still just 3-3 SU over the L6 games. 

Bottom line is I expect Miami to both score and allow more here than what we've been seeing from them recently. The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings vs. Minnesota, including a 113-104 LOSS back in December. Now the number is noticeably higher for the rematch. But the Over has also cashed in six of Miami's previous seven non-conference games. Conversely, the Over is 16-5 in Minnesota's last 21 non-conference games. Given those numbers, it should come as no shock to learn that BOTH teams' number of points given up AND scored rises against non-conference competition. 8* Over Heat/T'wolves 

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This package has a National League matchup, an Interleague matchup and we conclude w/ an American League matchup. I took the Indians yday in what looked like a real "buy low" scenario w/ a bonafide Cy Young contender on the mound. Boy, did Trevor Bauer come through as he tossed seven no-hit innings against Toronto, leading the Tribe to a 4-1 victory. The home team should win again Friday as their offense has to eventually come around. Even if it doesn't, the Blue Jays are only hitting .190 themselves, so a few runs is all Cleveland starter Shane (don't call me Justin) Bieber should need here. 

This will be Bieber's first start of the season, but he did make a brief relief appearance on Sunday vs. Minnesota. A case could be made that Bieber would have been the Opening Day starter for any other team in the AL Central. Last year was his rookie season and he went 11-5 overall, including a win at Toronto. As touched on already, the Blue Jays are not hitting much so far in 2019. They're averaging just 3.0 rpg and yday was the third time they were held to 1 or less. Incredibly, last night was the fourth time this season they entered the sixth inning w/o any hits! 

Toronto, like Cleveland, seems to have some strong starting pitching on hand. Only once in eight games has the starter given up more than 2 ER. That includes a nice big league debut from tonight's starter Trent Thornton, who threw five shutout innings of two-hit ball vs. Detroit on Sunday. Thornton has an unusual delivery and was held to just 75 pitches in that first start. Working on a pitch count is beneficial for his future, but the team may suffer in the interim if the bullpen can't produce. Honestly, the Blue Jays' bullpen may not even matter given how bad the offense has been. The L3 seasons have seen Toronto go just 67-96 in the U.S, including 2-5 at Progressive Field. 8* Cleveland

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): For most NBA teams, simply making the NBA playoffs doesn't mean much. The majority of teams in this league either have championship aspirations or are deliberately tanking. But the Magic don't fit into either of those categories. Having not made the playoffs since Dwight Howard left town in 2012, an appearance of any kind (even if it meant being swept by Milwaukee) would be welcomed. Lately, Orlando has been playing very well. They've won 8 of 10 and as a result are currently tied w/ Brooklyn for 7th in the Eastern Conference w/ just three regular season games to play. 

The Magic obviously can't afford any kind of slip up as Miami is breathing right down their neck. The ninth place Heat are only one-half game back. There are four teams - all separated by a game - battling for the final three spots and obviously one is going to be left out. Believe it or not, but the key numbers - whether it be point differential or net efficiency rating - say the Magic are the best team out of that quartet. Tonight is the final home game of the regular season, so expect them to be extra motivated. They are 22-16 at home for the season and have not lost here since right after the All-Star Break. They've won eight straight at home and 12 out of the last 13, including a 14-pt win over the Knicks on Wednesday. 

Drawing Atlanta is obviously of great help to the Magic here as well. The Hawks came into the year as non-contenders and have certainly "lived up" to that advanced billing. While far from the worst team in the league, the Hawks are definitely in the bottom five. I say that knowing full well they've gone 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS their last seven. They've recently upset both Philadelphia and Milwaukee, but both of those games were at home and the opponents came in disinterested. They won't be facing a disinterested opponent here on the road. The Hawks are dead last in the league in points allowed (118.8 per game) and are giving up even more than usual the L5 games. Meanwhile, the Magic have been among the best defensive teams in the league since the Break. They've also posted three double digit victories against Atlanta since the New Year. 10* Orlando

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): I had my doubts that the Phillies could live up to lofty expectations that were set after bringing in Bryce Harper late in the Spring. But so far, so good as they have started the season 4-1 and outscored opponents by 17 runs. The only loss suffered came two days ago, to Harper's former team (the Nationals), by a single run (9-8). A wild, back & forth game saw the Phils take an 8-6 lead into the bottom of the eighth, only for some sloppy play to cost them the game. But, at home, I like them to bounce back against a Minnesota club that will obviously be at a disadvantage playing in a NL park (no DH).

The Twins are also 4-1 w/ their only loss coming by one run. They have won three in a row, though the last two games were played against the lowly Royals. In a weak AL Central, Minnesota is right to believe they have a chance to challenge Cleveland for division supremacy, but (as always) pitching remains a question mark. Jake Odorizzi gets the baseball here and he did look good in his first start, giving up only a solo HR in six strong innings vs. the Indians last Saturday. He also finished w/ 11 strikeouts, tying a career-high. But I don't expect him to be as effective here. Even w/ the pitcher coming up to bat, the Phillies are a stronger offensive team than the Indians as they are averaging 7.8 runs per game. Odorizzi, like most American League pitchers, is also a massive liability at the plate. 

Philly will counter w/ Nick Pivetta, who was admittedly not that effective against Atlanta on Saturday. But his team still got the win, 8-4. The Phillies' bullpen seems to be a question mark right now, but I imagine that and the fielding woes will work themselves out. The Phillies have won all three home games this season and the Twins were not good on the road last year, posting a 29-52 record. 8* Philadelphia

8* St. Louis (4:15 ET): Today is a make up game for yday's rainout. It's the Cardinals' home opener and I believe itll be worth the wait for Redbirds' fans as I expect their team to get the job done Friday afternoon. No game was originally scheduled for today (in anticipation of Thursday possibly raining out), so it's the same pitching matchup that was set for yday. St. Louis had delivered B2B come from behind wins (both against Pittsburgh) prior to this series while San Diego is off to a better than usual 4-3 start, though all seven games were played at Petco Park. 

Starting here for the Cardinals will be Jack Flaherty, who finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year balloting last year. His first start of '19 did not go particularly well as he gave up four runs on seven hits in just 4 1/3 IP. But two prior starts against San Diego have gone well w/ him allowing just two runs on six hits across 11 1/3 IP. The Padres hit just .154 off him and lost both games. I expect Flaherty to bounce back from the subpar 1st outing of the season as he posted a 2.93 ERA and 1.035 WHIP at home last season. Helping him will be the bat of Paul Goldschmidt, who has already homered four times in his first six games wearing a St. Louis uniform. 

At the plate, Goldschmidt and the rest of the Cards will be getting their 1st look at Padres' rookie Nick Margevicius, who had an impressive big league debut last week w/ five shutout innings before giving up a run in the sixth. He had 5 K's and zero walks. Unfortunately for Margevicius, the Padres would go on to lose that game, 3-2 to the Giants. Despite now fielding an allegedly better lineup than years' past, San Diego has yet to score more than five runs in a game this season and has been held to three or fewer four times. I'm not yet sold enough on Margevicius to believe he can overcome a lack of run support. 8* St. Louis

10* Under Cavs/Kings (10:05 ET): Despite these teams both being among the very worst in the league defensively (in terms of points allowed), I see this game still staying Under. Yes, Cleveland has gone Over in five straight while giving up an average of an average of 122.6 PPG and its opponents are shooting a lights-out 55.1% during that time. The Cavs are allowing 113.9 PPG for the season, which 23rd in the league, and they are dead last in efficiency. But despite everything you just read, I believe we are in store for an Under tonight in Sacramento. The number is just too high.

Sacramento is no better than Cleveland on the defensive end. Well, in terms of efficiency, they are 18th. That's not terrible. But they also give up 114.9 PPG, which is 26th. They just gave up 130 points in their last game. But that was against the Rockets and this is against Cleveland. The Cavs rank near the bottom of the league in scoring (29th) at 104.6 PPG. While the Kings play at one of the league's fastest tempos (3rd), the Cavs play slow (29th in pace of play). In spite of the bad defensive numbers from both sides, Cleveland's offense may very well be what keeps this game from going Over the total. 

Kevin Love won't be playing in this game either. Such was the case when the teams first met back in December. Now that game did go Over with both teams shooting lights out. I don't see that kind of shooting being replicated here, however. Cleveland obviously averages less PPG on the road than they do at home. They can't possibly continue to allow the shooting percentages we've seen recently. The Kings were held to 105 pts here at home by Houston. They too are in line to see defensive improvement in this game. The Under is 8-1 following the Kings' previous nine double digit losses at home.  10* Under Cavs/Kings

10* Washington (7:05 ET): Montreal is just trying to get into the playoffs as right now they are tied w/ Columbus (94 pts each) for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The team holding the top WC spot, Carolina, has 95 pts. So obviously there's a lot of shuffling that can still take place after these next two games. The Habs definitely have a tall order in front of them though as they must play Washington tonight followed by a home game against Toronto. Then again, they did just beat Tampa Bay and Winnipeg, two other division leaders, so if the Habs were to make the playoffs, they'd have some confidence even as a Wild Card.

But this is a tough one as it's on the road. The Caps, unlike Tampa Bay Tuesday, still have something to play for. They're trying to lock down 1st place in the Metro, which they would do w/ a win tonight. Now they already blew a first opportunity to do so by losing at Florida Monday night. That loss snapped a four-game losing streak and was on the heels of their own win over the league-leading Lightning. It was also a third road game in five nights. The Caps certainly came out like a team that was fatigued, considering they fell behind 4-0 before a third period rally made it close. 

These teams haven't met since November when they split a pair of high-scoring games w/ the home team winning each time. Washington has lost only 10 times in regulation at home all season. Only three teams can say they've lost fewer. Meanwhile, Montreal remains a losing proposition on the road despite a 6-1-1 run overall. Something to keep in mind moving forward is that the Habs convert at a league-worst 12.5% on the power play. Montreal has been a nice surprise this season, but Washington is the better team here and is a good value on the ML. 10* Washington

6* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Despite a less than inspiring off-season, the Indians came into the year once again favored to win the (weak) AL Central. They seemingly own a very significant edge in starting pitching over the rest of their division rivals, but so far that's been of little consequence due to an anemic offense that's w/o both Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. The Tribe have scored of a total of 13 runs in five games so far and are just 2-3 overall after dropping a game to the White Sox yday by a score of 8-3. Outside of Monday's 5-3 win in the home opener, this team has not scored more than three runs in any other game. 

But fortunately for today, they do have (perhaps) their best pitcher on the mound. That would be Trevor Bauer, who many feel is set to supplant Corey Kluber as the ace of this rotation. Bauer was as good as advertised in his first start of '19 where he held Minnesota to just one run on one hit over seven strong innings. The Indians actually won that game, 2-1. You have to remember that Bauer was dominant before getting hurt last season as he posted a 2.31 ERA (third lowest) and 1.103 WHIP. His career numbers against today's opponent are not great, but he's a much better pitcher today compared to the past. 

Toronto was able to avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep (at home, no less) by beating Baltimore yday 5-3. Their own starting pitching has been pretty great this year, at one point posting 24 straight scoreless innings. Five of those came from Thursday's starter Marco Estrada, who held Detroit to just three hits in the third game of the season. But Bauer is the better pitcher here and Estrada's ERA in three career starts vs. Cleveland is 5.06. The Jays are only batting .202 in the early going themselves. This is a good matchup for the Indians. 6* Cleveland 

8* Under Red Sox/A's (3:35 ET): I won w/ Boston yday as they finally got on track. Things did not look good early when they were down 3-0. But they were able to tie things up w/ a run in the fifth and two more in the six, then won it w/ a three-run ninth. That 6-3 win snapped a four-game losing streak for the World Champs. I mentioned in yday's analysis that at no point during last season did the Red Sox lose four in a row. They finished +42.5 units for the season and Oakland was right behind at +35.0. So combined they made +77.5 units and were 1-2 overall at the betting window. It will be interesting to see how much of a chunk, if any, comes out of those respective profits this season. 

Oakland had won four in a row going into last night, including two straight shutouts of Boston. Considering what the Red Sox accomplished at the plate last season, that's mighty impressive. Wins were by 7-0 and 1-0 margins and it appeared (for awhile at least) that a third straight shutout might be in the cards as Wednesday's starter Marco Estrada was sharp early. While the Red Sox were then able to score six runs in the final five innings, I wouldn't look for that to carry over to tonight. Speaking of scoreless streaks, Oakland's starter for tonight (Brett Anderson) is working on a 34 1/3 inning scoreless streak going back to last season. His first start of '19 saw him toss six shutout innings against the Angels.

No one in the Red Sox lineup has ever homered off Anderson, who is 6-4 lifetime vs. Boston w/ a 3.48 ERA. He'll be opposed here by Eduardo Rodriguez, who coincidentally has had the A's number through the years. Four career starts against Oakland have produced a 2.33 ERA, including 1.69 in two on the road. Rodriguez did get roughed up in his season debut, but should bounce back tonight as the A's have scored more than four runs only once all season. They've been held to three runs or less three times in the L4 games, including a 1-0 victory Tuesday. 8* Under Red Sox/A's

7* Calgary (10:35 ET): The Flames have locked up not only the Pacific Division, but also the best record in the Western Conference. They will be a top seed for the 1st time since 1989 when they last won the Stanley Cup. Note they have won the Pacific three times since then and every time were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Despite having little to play for in these final two regular season games, I like the Flames quite a bit here as they try and build more momentum for the playoffs and also reverse an "ugly" history here in Anaheim. The better team is being severely undervalued in this spot. 

Anaheim has had a terrible year. It actually started well w/ a 5-1-1 record the first seven games. They were even a respectable 19-11-5 at the 35-game mark. Since then, the bottom has dropped out w/ a 14-26-5 mark. Really, things have been even worse than that record indicates. Due in large part to having scored the fewest number of goals in the league (191 in 80 games), they have the second worst goal differential (-57), trailing only division mate Los Angeles. The Ducks are off a rare win, 5-1 over Edmonton, on Saturday. While they have been more competitive down the stretch, the bottom line is that they have won B2B games just two times since the All-Star Break. 

Calgary has lost 32 of its last 42 visits to The Pond, but for most of them, they were the inferior team. Not anymore. They last visited here back in November, which is before the Ducks tanked. Since then, the teams have met twice in Calgary w/ the Flames winning both times. The latest meeting just took place Friday and Calgary romped to a 6-1 victory. While the Flames might be the highest scoring team in the league at home, they are tied for giving up the fewest on the road. Also, they are still one of just nine teams averaging at least 3.0 gpg away from home. 7* Calgary

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Houston certainly proved me wrong last night by going on the road and delivering a resounding statement in Sacramento. The Rockets won 130-105, easily covering the 5.5-pt spot. It was their 50th win of the year along w/ the third straight win and cover. As a result, they've moved into third place in the West and are only 1.5 games back of Denver (3.5 games behind Golden State). But this is a tough spot playing a Clippers team who is also looking to improve its own playoff position. The situation tremendously favors LA here, who is playing at home. 

The Clippers are currently sixth in the West, one-half game back of Utah. Obviously, getting into the top four (2.5 games back) and garnering home court advantage for the first round playoff series should be the goal. The Clips are 25-13 SU at home this season, averaging 117.7 PPG. The team has done its best to shoot up the standings and had itself a tremendous March, going 13-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS. Not only is Houston playing the second game of a back to back here, the Clippers have been off for two days. They last played Sunday and blew out Memphis 113-96 as 10-pt chalk. 

The Rockets have performed poorly when playing on the road w/o rest. They've gone 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in the situation, including 1-4 ATS when both games took place on the road. Meanwhile, give the Clippers any rest at all (meaning they're not playing in the second game of a B2B) and their SU record is 40-24. They have already beaten Houston twice this season, once by three here at home and by 20 on the road. While Houston has the stars, the Clippers are the deeper team. 10* LA Clippers 

10* Boston (10:07 ET): It's difficult to feel bad for a team like the Red Sox, who had virtually everything go their way last year en route to a fourth World Series title in the L15 years. They won 108 games, making an astounding 42.5 units for the season. So the rest of the league certainly isn't "crying" over the fact they've started 1-5 in 2019. But after giving up 41 runs in the first five games, they allowed just one yesterday and still lost (shutout for the 2nd straight day here in Oakland). I think it's time for the World Series Champs to win one tonight. 

Since dropping two games to the Mariners over in Japan to start the year, Oakland's pitching has been lights out. Starters have allowed just one run in the last 36 innings of work and Boston has yet to be able to score a single run in this series. Marco Estrada will start for a third time tonight and while he's yet to win a decision, he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. He threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Angels last Friday. But don't expect Estrada to find that kind of success here. He has a 4.68 ERA in 17 career outings against the Red Sox and is 4-8. He'll face a motivated Boston lineup that didn't lose four in a row at any point in 2018. Now they've done it in the first six games of 2019. 

For the Red Sox to get the win here, they'll need a better effort from starter Nathan Eovaldi than the one they got Friday. Granted, that was also the only game Boston has won all year. But Eovaldi allowed three HR's and six runs total. This is a pitcher that was very effective last year though, so expect a bounce back performance. Over his L7 starts of '18, Eovaldi posted a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Boston is too good and too talented to continue losing. Oakland is a team I had regressing this year and I think we'll see a major reversal of fortunes tonight. 10* Boston

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays won yday, 4-0, and now are 5-1 on the young season. They've won five straight since an Opening Day loss to the Astros, where I played against them. Now we circle back and things are obviously looking "up." Not only are the Rays off to a hot start, but their main competition in the AL East - the Red Sox & Yankees - are both struggling. Since it's very likely both of those teams will eventually turn things around, it would be a good idea for Tampa Bay to keep racking up the early season wins. I think they stay hot Wednesday afternoon and win again. 

Colorado is trending in a different direction right now w/ four straight losses. They come into 2019 still looking for the franchise's first ever NL West pennant. Even the Rays, who came into existence five years after the Rockies, have won the division at least once. But a history lesson isn't what the Rockies need right now. Rather, it's some offense. During the four game slide, they've been shutout twice and scored only four runs total. Tropicana Field doesn't seem like a likely place for them to turn things around, however. No team allowed fewer runs per game at home last year than the Rays and in six games this year, they've allowed a total of just TEN runs! Even w/ the DH, I expect the Rockies' struggles at the plate to continue here. 

Starting here for the Rays will be Charlie Morton. An All-Star LY w/ Houston, Morton went 15-3 in 2018. He helped his new team pick up its 1st win of this season, ironically against the Astros, with a strong effort where he allowed just two runs and three hits (w/ 8 K's) in five innings. Coming off a shutout win, the Rays have gone 16-6 the L3 seasons. Colorado has scored just one run here the L2 days. German Marquez gets the start for them today, but even though he pitched well vs. Miami last week, it won't be enough here. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Over Red Sox/A's (10:07 ET): The performance of Boston's starting pitchers has been nowhere close to last year and, quite frankly, it's been quite lousy. They've now gone a full turn through the rotation and the results have been ugly w/ 32 runs allowed in 21 IP and 11 HR's allowed. Last night saw David Price serve up three home runs in a 7-0 loss here in Oakland. That was actually the first time all year a Red Sox game didn't go Over and obviously the culprit was their offense getting shutout, which is rare. The offense should bounce back tonight, but the pitching remains a question mark. Take the Over.

There's been a lot of handwringing over the small workload these Boston starters had in Spring Training and whether or not that's led to the poor performances so far. Whatever the reason, Chris Sale was terrible in his 2019 debut as he allowed seven runs in three innings. The Red Sox lost that game 12-4 w/ Sale allowing 3 HR's. That's three times in five games the Boston starter has allowed 3 HR's. Over last year's full 162 game schedule, such an occurrence happened just seven times. While Sale has an outstanding resume, I still see him giving up at least a few runs here. Going back to the end of last season, the Over is 6-0-2 the L8 times Sale has taken the mound. 

Oakland's last five games have all been Unders w/ them winning four of them. Two have been shutouts and they've allowed just nine runs total. Michael Fiers has already started two games this year and while he was great his time out (six shutout innings of one-hit ball), he wasn't the first time (allowed five runs in 3 IP). Fiers has as many walks (5) as strikeouts and it's hard to keep this Red Sox lineup in check two days in a row. I expect Boston to definitely rediscover its offense after being shutout yday. While Fiers did have a 21-9 TSR last season, only have of his starts were technically quality ones. 10* Over Red Sox/A's