8* Tennessee (1:00 ET):  The Titans may not be a very good team, but the numbers indicate that they are also an unlucky bunch.  While just 2-9 SU overall, they are 1-5 in one-score games and that includes another heartbreaker last week as they lost to Oakland, 24-21, here at home. The Raiders scored the game winning touchdown with only 1:21 to go, capping a 90-yard drive, after Tennessee had rallied back from an early 17-6 hole.  The loss leaves the Titans 0-6 at home this year, the league's only team yet to have won a single time at home. In fact, they are just 2-18 SU their previous 20 home games, which is just beyond bad. But if there was ever a time for that to turn around, it would be this week, laying a short number against division rival Jacksonville. Lay the points.

Another Tennessee heartbreaker occurred two weeks ago, on a Thursday night in Jacksonville, as they again blew a late lead. This time it was a 13-9 advantage w/ just under four minutes remaining and they didn't even end up covering as three-point dogs. First came a long punt return for the Jaguars, setting them up for the go-ahead TD. Then, on the ensuing drive, came a Titans fumble and that allowed the Jags to kick a field goal to extend the lead to what ended up being the final margin of six points. It should be noted that Tennessee outgained Jacksonville, ever so slightly, 316-308 and also had a 22-18 edge in first downs.  I feel they were the better team that day and my own power rankings say they remain the better team overall this season despite an inferior record!

Jacksonville actually found itself favored in consecutive games for the first time under HC Gus Bradley last week vs. San Diego. But they lost, 31-25, as their red zone issues continued. Only two teams have converted red zone appearances into touchdowns at a fewer rate than have the Jags this season and they've actually been significantly worse the past four games (26.7 percent). So missing starting WR Allen Hurns (concussion) this week does them no favors.  Meanwhile a defense that is 29th in points allowed is giving up the highest TD percentage in the red zone in the entire league. Tennessee's last home win came against Jacksonville last year, by a three-point margin, and I think it's "deja vu all over again" for a Titans team due to pick up a much needed victory. 8* Tennessee

10* Under Cardinals/Rams (1:00 ET):  Divisional rematches, often times, end up lower-scoring than the original.  I realize that I somewhat "violated" this axiom by getting down on the Over Monday night (which did cash, mind you!). However, for what it's worth, Ravens-Browns 2 did actually feature fewer points than the first time they played and if you subtract the THREE non-offensive TD's that were scored in that game (though I didn't mind them at the time!), then it would have been significantly lower-scoring. This week, I'm taking this idea into account for a Cardinals-Rams, a matchup that saw St. Louis actually win the first go-around, 24-22, even though Arizona had a 2:1 edge in first downs (-3 in turnovers). While calling for the Cardinals to exact revenge might seem appropriate to some here, I like the Under more.

Arizona has been one of the best team's in the league all season, but last week saw them resemble last year's more fortunate bunch as they clearly "played down" to the level of competition in San Francisco, escaping w/ only a 20-13 victory. I covered w/ the home dog there and once again the Cardinals will be facing a stingy defense as the Rams permit just 18.4 points per game.  The Cards were able to gain 447 total yards in that first meeting, but I don't see them coming close to matching that output here, not w/ the running game that's currently in bad shape.  Both Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington are out and the former is a significant loss as he was fourth in the league in rushing. This leaves rookie David Johnson as the primary, and possibly only, ball carrier and he has been plagued by fumbling issues. The Rams defense allows just 92 YPG on the ground at home, so a potentially one-dimensional Arizona offense should struggle to move the ball Sunday.

A play on St. Louis this week would require quite the leap of faith as their offense is in shambles right now. They don't have a competent QB on the roster (as much as they "ripped off" Washington in the RG3 trade, it's not like it's translated into any real success) as Case Keenum is two weeks removed from a concussion and Nick Foles has just been awful all year. The offense has failed to gain 300 yards each of the last three games, averaging just 11.0 PPG and there have been seven times this season where they've failed to break 20 pts.  Rookie Todd Gurley had a strong effort in the first meeting w/ Arizona (140+ yds rushing), but he won't come close to matching that here as his numbers are down in recent weeks (54.8 YPG L4 wks) & Arizona is allowing just 91 rushing YPG on the season. St. Louis' passing game is virtually non-existent, a major reason the team has gone Under in six of its last seven games. 10* Under Cardinals/Rams

10* Over Lightning/Sharks (10:35 ET):  Prior to last night's 1-0 loss in Anaheim, San Jose had gone Over in four straight games w/ either they or the opponent scoring exactly five goals every time out. Tonight, they are back at home and welcome in Tampa Bay, who has been a disappointment to this point (currently sixth in the Atlantic), particularly on the offensive end.  The Lightning were the top offensive team in the league last year (in terms of goals per game), but so far are only 25th (2.3 gpg) this season.  What's kept them afloat is their fourth place ranking in goals allowed. This is definitely not what we were expecting from the Lightning and a 15-7 Under mark is due to start moving to the middle.  Take the Over.

While San Jose is off a loss in Anaheim, Tampa Bay beat the Ducks its last time out, with the game also taking place at The Pond. Interestingly, the Lightning were able to win despite only 22 shots on goal.  Netminder Ben Bishop has been keeping them in games w/ a 1.19 goals against average his L5 starts as TB has allowed an average of 32 shots on goal (.944 save percentage). However, I'm not sure if Bishop will be able to "save" the team here as he has a career 3.22 GAA vs. San Jose.  Offensively though, I see a breakout looming offensively as the Lightning have scored exactly two goals in four straight games.  Only once over the L7 games have they notched more than two goals.  But 9 of their last 11 visits here to the Shark Tank have gone Over the total.

San Jose has had some issues in goal w/ Martin Jones turning in a .896 save percentage his L4 starts. The less used Alex Stalock has an .896 save percentage overall this season (w/ all four starts going Over).  When playing in the second of back to back games, the Sharks are 3-1 Over this season. The Over is also 21-13 the L3 seasons in Sharks' home games when the total is 5.0 or less.  Back to the goaltending issues, they have allowed an average of 3.2 goals per game their last five despite facing just 27.8 shots per game.  Penalty killing has been really strong of late (21 of 23 since Nov 19th), but you'd have to figure that's due to regress. At the same time, a YTD 7.2 shot percentage here at home is due to improve.  10* Over Lightning/Sharks

8* Michigan State (8:15 ET):  Rarely, do I side with a favorite drawing such heavy one-sided public action as Michigan State is here. But, again, at the risk of potentially alienating any/all client base in Iowa City, I simply cannot make any case for the underdog here. Iowa is unbeaten, but they should be as they were favored in all but one game during the regular season, the exception being a Wisconsin team that was overrated from the start.  This particular Conference Championship Game is being billed as a battle of top five teams (in the eyes of the CFP committee), but the reality of the matter is the Hawkeyes are barely one of the top 25 teams in the country and I just cannot not see them staying within such a short number, let alone taking the game outright.

Mark Dantonio has his team peaking at the right time. Sparty certainly could be accused of "playing down" to the competition early in the season as they failed to cover each of the first six games. Then came "The Miracle at Michigan," a game they certainly should have lost (but didn't) and following that there was a misleading 52-26 win over Indiana and their lone loss (to Nebraska) which came about due some questionable officiating. But the last three weeks have seen them in peak form. They crushed Maryland 24-7, went into Columbus w/ a backup QB and beat Ohio State as 13.5-pt dogs, 17-14 (allowed just 132 total yds & 5 first downs!), then turned in easily their best effort of the season w/ a 55-16 thrashing of Penn State last week. The defense has turned it around big-time and if Iowa can't run the ball here, they have little chance. MSU has not lost a game the L2 seasons when allowing fewer than 150 rush yards. They are allowing just 119 per game (3.6 YPC) for the season.

Who is the best team Iowa has played this season?  Wisconsin? Pittsburgh? The Big 10 schedule makers were kind as they avoided the top four teams from the East Division (Michigan St, Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St). Only two of the L26 FBS teams to start a season 12-0 have a worse scoring differential than do the Hawkeyes this year (neither won the National Championship). While you have to give them credit for being the ONLY team in the country not to trail at any point in the fourth quarter (haven't trailed in the 2H since playing Iowa St on Sept 12th), they have been outgained three times including B2B weeks. Nebraska outgained them significantly last week, 433-250 (!), with the difference there being a +3 turnover margin. The Hawkeyes have feasted off TO's this year (17 INT's), but that's where the experience of MSU QB Connor Cook comes in as he has the best TD-INT ratio the Big 10 has seen since Russell Wilson's one year at Wisconsin. The dog has covered all four Big 10 Championship Games (won L3 OUTRIGHT!) and won outright in the L2 meetings (2012, 2013) between these two. Time for that to change. Michigan State is simply in a higher class than Iowa.  8* Michigan State

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): How interesting that the one favorite I'm going w/ in this 3-game report is Minnesota and it qualifies as the highest rated play of the trio! You want to talk interesting dichotomies?  Well, so far this season, the T'wolves are a perfect 9-0 ATS on the road (6-3 straight up), but only 1-8 ATS (2-7 SU) at home. That's due to even out.  Remember that they finished w/ the worst record in the entire league last year, so it's surprising that tonight will mark the fourth time they've been favored to win this season. The previous three have all been here at home and they've failed to cover all three, but they're undervalued tonight in a rematch of one of the teams that got them, Portland.  Lay the small number.

When Portland came to the Twin Cities back on November 2nd, the T'wolves were actually 2-0 SU/ATS having opened the season w/ B2B road wins over the lowly Lakers and Nuggets. So they were a little bit vulnerable laying points for the first time all season.  It was a close game, 106-101 in favor of the Blazers, and in fact Minnesota actually led the game 34-21 after the first quarter! What you may have forgotten is that was a very emotional game for the T'wolves players as they honored the late Flip Saunders prior to the game. That emotion eventually wore off and Portland took control.  But given the way that game started, Minnesota certainly is capable of beating Portland, who is just 2-7 SU on the road otherwise.

The next time Minnesota was favored to win here at home came against (at the time) winless Philadelphia and a seven-point spot proved to be a little too much in a 100-95 victory. From there, the T'wolves weren't favored again until their last time out when they lost here to Orlando, 96-93 as small 1.5-pt chalk.  There they turned in their worst shooting percentage of the season against an opponent that wasn't Miami (37.7 percent). I'll call for a bounce back here (have had three days off!) and at the same time Portland is due to regress after a surprising 123-111 win over Indiana Thursday night.  They shot 51.8 percent in that game, which was the first time in nearly a month they were over 50%.  It's time for the T'wolves to start winning at home. 10* Minnesota

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET):  When evaluating the Cavaliers, it's important to remember that they remain short-handed w/o Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert.  Yet they are still only percentage points out of first place in the Eastern Conference, a spot they had actually held for much of this season before last night's disappointing overtime loss in New Orleans. After falling behind the Pelicans by as many as 13 in the fourth quarter, Cleveland went on a furious rally. Actually, scratch that. LeBron James went on a furious rally, scoring 21 of his team's 24 points to give them a three-point lead before New Orleans was able to force OT on a last second three-pointer. While "conventional wisdom" will say its tough for the Cavs to "get off the mat" after such a defeat, teams playing in the second of B2B road games are often undervalued and that's what we have here. Take the points.

The Cavs already beat the Heat once this season, in Cleveland, 102-92 as 4.5-pt chalk. At the time, LeBron and company were 3-0 ATS. Now they stand at just 7-12 at the betting window. However, scoring 100+ points against Miami is no small feat. Defensively, the Heat are one of the top teams in the league and only four times since has an opponent topped the century mark against them. Not surprisingly, they've lost three of those, including 105-95 to Boston here at home Monday. They responded by pulling a minor upset of Oklahoma City on national TV Thursday, which I believe has only further served to inflate this line.  Cleveland is right behind OKC in terms of offensive efficiency and I don't think is prone to the same kind of late game breakdowns we saw from the Thunder on Thursday.

Miami, meanwhile, has offensive issues as they've topped 100 pts only two times since doing so twice in the first three games. Those two instances came against the Lakers and Kings, two of the worst defensive teams in the entire league.  Following the high-profile win over the Thunder, I feel a letdown is inevitable for the Heat in this spot as not only are they 3-15 ATS following a SU win as a dog the L3 seasons, but also 0-6 ATS this year following a game vs. a non-conference opponents. The Cavs are 2-0 ATS as underdogs, a role they simply aren't in very often.  Take advantage. 8* Cleveland

8* USC (7:45 ET):  My, oh my, what a change we have in public perception here as Southern Cal was a 9.5-point favorite when Stanford rolled into the Coliseum and pulled off a season-changing 41-31 upset of the Trojans. That game now seems like eons ago as Steve Sarkisian was still the USC head coach (could have been drunk for all we know!) and the Trojans were the ones being talked about as the Pac 12 favorite back then. Had it not been for a loss to Oregon a few weeks back, one would think that the Cardinal would be an even bigger favorite here, but nevertheless this remains a solid value on the underdog, who is in a revenge spot to boot. I have these teams rated fairly evenly, so taking this points is an easy call.

I have to admit that USC taking the interim label off Clay Helton does worry me a bit in terms of motivation as no longer is he coaching for his job. While popular w/ the players, this may not have been the right hire long-term, nevertheless, Helton has the more talented team on paper here and motivation shouldn't be that much of an issue given a Pac 12 title (and Rose Bowl berth) is on the line.  At one point, USC was only 3-3 SU after losing Helton's sideline debut, 41-31 to Notre Dame. But the Trojans actually had a 590-476 edge in total yards in that game (best anyone has played against the Irish this year) and since then have lost only once, at Oregon. They looked great in dismantling cross-town rival UCLA last week, 40-21, as this offense has really gotten into a groove since Helton took over. Their fewest points scored in a game since the coaching change has been 27 and in the seven games under Helton, their scoring average has been 33.3 PPG.

Since losing at home to Oregon (USC lost to the Ducks on the road), Stanford has actually been outgained in a couple of wins over Cal and Notre Dame.  They were very fortunate to beat the Irish last week as they were outgained 533-422. They needed a miracle field goal on the final play, which only came about due to a foolish facemask penalty that went against Notre Dame earlier in the drive.  I think a huge key to this game is time of possession. Stanford leads the country in that department and really took control of the ball in the 2H of that first meeting back in September. But USC has rediscovered its ground game under Helton and now are outrushing opponents by over a 2:1 margin this season! The regular season matchup was closer than the final score indicated and I can absolutely see the dog winning outright for a fifth straight time in this Pac 12 rivalry. 8* USC

8* Air Force (7:30 ET): Admittedly, this was not the first Conference Championship matchup to "catch my eye" this weekend. But, I believe we have an excellent value here on underdog Air Force as San Diego State will have to play this one w/o starting QB Maxwell Smith (torn ACL). Yes, I realize Smith wasn't asked to do a ton for the Aztecs (averaged just 14.2 pass attempts per game in the seven MWC games he completed!), but then again he didn't have to given the relatively weak conference slate the team was given this year.  The MWC was down significantly this season (four 10+ win teams LY!) and the AFA will be the best team SDSU (who I pegged to win the division from the start) has faced since its non-conference slate.  Take the points.

Smith did not even attempt 20 passes in a single conference game this season. San Diego State actually averaged one less passing yard per game than did Air Force, who almost never passes (just 12 attempts per game), for the season! So obviously, it's the respective run games we need to pay attention to here and for San Diego State that means RBs Donnel Pumphrey and Chase Price, who paced an attack that averaged 235 YPG this season. Given that Air Force's defense just got run over by New Mexico last week (377 rush yds allowed!), you might think that things don't look too good for the Falcons here.  But I'm willing to write that off as a one-game aberration. Previously the AFA's defense had done a very good job at stopping the run. As run oriented as the SDSU offense may be, being w/o your starting QB at this stage of the game is a tough blow.

Smith isn't the only key injury the Aztecs are dealing with here. DT Christian Heyward tore both his ACL & MCL in last week's 31-14 win over Nevada and that's a big blow to the run defense which needed to be at its best against the triple option attack of Air Force, which has gone over 200 yds rushing in every game but one (196 vs. Army).  This will easily be the best rushing attack that San Diego State has seen all season. Again, I thought San Diego State played a really weak conference schedule as they avoided the top three teams from the Mountain Division (AFA, Boise State, New Mexico), so that's why their numbers look so impressive (7-0-1 ATS). Air Force went to Boise and won two weeks ago to secure its place here and you can essentially disregard LW's result vs. New Mexico as it had no meaning to the Falcons whatsoever.  The offensive game plan is reportedly going to be "very conservative" for SDSU here and the defense has only had one week to prepare for the triple option. That makes taking the points here a "no brainer" in my book, especially w/ the underdog looking to erase an 0-5 SU/ATS slide in this conference rivalry.  8* Air Force

8* Toronto (5:05 ET):  Yep, I'm going to do it. "It" being step in front of the Golden State train. As you undoubtedly know, the Warriors come into Saturday a perfect 20-0 straight up (14-6 ATS) and they've made it look easy by outscoring foes by more than 17 points per 100 possessions!  But looking at this seven-game road trip of theirs, you have to look for a potential slip-up as no team in NBA history has ever swept a trip of this length.  Toronto isn't far behind Golden State at 12-7-1 against the spread and despite my personal power ratings saying that GSW should essentially be a double digit favorite in virtually every game, this spot looks to have the most potential for a slip up as it's an unusual 2:05 start time locally for the NBA champs.  Take the points.

Something you may not have noticed is there's a shift taking place in the NBA. No longer is the Western Conference vastly superior to the East. Maybe that's because of what the Warriors are doing to the rest of their brethren, but currently I would rate only three teams from the West in the top ten in the league. Toronto, who stayed within five points in the first meeting back on November 17th, is one of the best opponents GSW has faced all season and curiously the number here is almost as high as it was in Oakland when the Raptors covered (+9.5) in the 115-110 loss. Including that ATS win, the Raptors are a money-making 6-1 vs. the number in the underdog role this season and even more impressive is their perfect 6-0 ATS mark when taking on a team w/ a winning record.  

Now there is the matter of the Raptors being off an ugly outright loss here at home to Denver Thursday night. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this matchup, but the Nuggets (who were +10) came in and pulled a 106-105 upset. As embarrassing as it might have been to lose to a team that came in riding an eight-game losing streak, the key was Denver getting off to a fast start (made 7 of first 9 shots) en route to a 15-4 advantage they'd never relinquish (Toronto did make a furious 4Q rally) and them going a perfect 18 for 18 from the free throw line. I'm not going to even bother running through the Warriors' exploits, because we all know they're impressive, but eventually they have to slip up and I think the likelihood of them doing so here is greater than at any other time so far this season. 8* Toronto

10* Florida (4:00 ET):  For a second consecutive year, Alabama comes into the SEC Championship Game heavily favored and deservedly so. Last year, they came in laying 14.5 to Missouri and the result was a 42-13 smackdown of the Tigers here in Atlanta.  This year, Bama is better but their surprising opponent is too. Florida is certainly a more worthy challenger than Mizzou was yet the Gators are getting more points here from the oddsmakers, thanks in large part to early betting taking this number up significantly. Having now crossed the two-touchdown threshold, I feel the Gators are a solid value as they have an excellent defense, one that allows just 15.5 points per game (5th best in the country).  Take the points.

Now we are obviously going to need Florida to score some points here, something they essentially failed to do last wk vs. Florida State, if they are to stay inside the number.  The Gators lone score against the Seminoles came on a safety and that was a home game. But I feel the 27-2 final was somewhat misleading in the sense that the 'Noles scored two late TD's, one of them w/ no time remaining, to "pad" the victory. Consider that before the final drive, Florida had actually outgained FSU! The offense did move the ball some, but missed two field goals (FSU made two long attempts of their own) and turned the ball over twice on downs inside the red zone. Top WR Demarcus Robinson will be back here after being suspended last week. Few, if any, projected 1st year HC Jim McElwain to get his team to this point and I think last week was a bit of a flat spot (Gators wrapped up the SEC East a month ago!). I know the offense has struggled going back several games, but the defense allowed only two of eight SEC opponents to top 14 points! Four were held to single digits. Remember also that the Gators whipped the only team (Ole Miss) to beat Bama, 38-10. 

McElwain is a former assistant under Nick Saban (Lane Kiffin's predecessor as OC), which will get a lot of play in the hype for this game, but look for the impending departure of yet another Saban disciple (DC Kirby Smart) to have an even bigger effect. Smart is heading to Georgia next year (to become HC) and don't think for a second that won't be talked about if the Crimson Tide falter down the stretch. (Saban already has gotten annoyed w/ reporters asking him about it).  The Tide stung Vegas big time LW w/ a late score against Auburn (covering the 15.5-pt spread), but note that was actually a one score game entering the 4th quarter. Running back Derek Henry (Heisman favorite) carried the ball an insane 46 times last week and that could have a carryover effect here when facing a much better defense.  In a game w/ two top tier defenses, a double digit pointspread doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  10* Florida

8* South Florida (4:00 ET):  There's somewhat of an interesting coaching connection here as South Florida's Orlando Antigua and South Carolina's Frank Martin are both of Hispanic origin and it was reported that only one time previous in the history of College Basketball has there been an instance of two such coaches matching wits.  Clearly, as of right now, it is Martin who has his team in better shape.  The Gamecocks come into Saturday's home game perfect, both straight up and against the spread.  Meanwhile, USF is a disappointing 2-6 SU (2-2 ATS), but that's where the pointspread comes in and it is generous Saturday afternoon w/ the Bulls taking a ton of points. While Antigua's team has some bad losses on its resume already, the only team to beat them by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here is Kentucky. So they are battle-tested and won't be intimidated by having to play in an SEC gym. Take the points.

Antigua should be very familiar w/ the South Carolina program as he previously served as an assistant under Coach Cal at Kentucky.  So far, it's been a bit of a rocky start in Tampa and the team is off a road loss Thursday to Delaware.  Poor shooting hurt them there, but on the bright side they did show some defensive prowess in holding the Blue Hens to just 30.9 percent from the floor. That was actually the third time in the last four games (UK being the exception) where they held their opponent below 37% for the game. Doing so again here, against what is admittedly a superior opponent, will be critical. Consider that against Kentucky, the Bulls were 22-pt dogs (covered!), so by comparison this number looks inflated.

South Carolina has won every game by double digits so far while typically dominating the boards and playing good defense, which is what you expect from a Frank Martin coached outfit.  But the competition hasn't exactly been stiff.  One could make a pretty compelling argument that the Gamecocks were pretty severely undervalued coming into the Paradise Jam Tournament, which they won, with three consecutive wins as single-digit chalk over Depaul, Hofstra and Tulsa. As a result, the market has now swung too far in the other direction as Monday, they were asked to lay only 18 to Western Carolina. Again, by comparison, this number looks to be inflated. 8* South Florida

10* Wyoming (3:00 ET):  This is a dangerous spot on the road for Cal, as they head to the high elevation of Laramie for what amounts to a Noon PT start time. It's also the Bears' first "true" road game of the season and keep in mind that both of their losses came in the only two games they had to leave campus.  They were favored in each instance as well, just is the case here, losing as 4.5-point chalk to San Diego State and laying six to Richmond in Vegas. Meanwhile, the host Pokes have won all four home games so far (lost twice on the road) and are off their first road victory, beating Denver 68-52 as five-point dogs Wednesday. This is a revenge spot for them as LY they dropped an ugly 45-42 decision (were +4!) in Berkeley. Take the points.

Including this season's results, Wyoming is 47-27 SU since the start of the 2013-14 season. They are 13-21 SU on the road, but an awesome 34-6 SU here at home, which is a pretty strong dichotomy.  Interesting is that never during that time have they been in the +6.5 to +9 range here at the Arena-Auditorium. So either they've fallen off from LY's 25-10 campaign (made the NCAA Tournament) further than I think (not likely) or Cal is being drastically overrated by the oddsmakers here. I'm banking on the latter being true as Cal was ranked as high as 14th before they dropped B2B games. Wyoming dropped only two home games all of last season, both by single digits margins. They are 25-7 SU in the month of December under HC Larry Shyatt.

Cal had defensive issues when they took their act to Vegas and that could be a major problem here today. I say that because Wyoming is averaging  83.5 PPG here in Laramie and has shot better than 50 percent from the floor in four of their first seven games.  The Bears defense was a lot better Tuesday vs. Seattle, but still they failed to cover (as hefty 22.5-pt chalk) in a 66-52 win.  Speaking of low-scoring victories, there was last year's meeting between these two where neither was able to even shoot 37% from the floor (was 16-15 at half!). The Cowboys' defense hasn't been quite as good so far this season, but it should be good enough here. That and the big-time home court edge keep them in this one to the finish.  10* Wyoming

8* UNLV (11:00 ET):  Oregon is the unbeaten team here, but as you know that means it's only a "matter of time" before they get handed their first loss as the number of teams w/o a blemish on their resume continues to dwindle (down to 18 after Kentucky lost last night). The Ducks have yet to leave the friendly confines of Eugene, but that all changes tonight w/ a visit to Vegas to play a UNLV team that finds itself in a number of favorable situations. The Rebels have lost just one time themselves, by two to UCLA in Maui, so it's been an impressive start for them as well, most notably an upset of Indiana (as eight-point dogs) before they left the Island.  While this game doesn't take place in their home arena, that doesn't really take away any value of them still being on The Strip.  Take the points.

I thought that Dave Rice might have his best team in a while this season.  That's why I took UNLV in its season opener and while that didn't pan out (won by only two over Cal Poly), they've looked extremely good ever since. They did cash for me (as 4-pt dogs) in the loss to UCLA and after the upset of Indiana, returned home to blow out Prarie View A&M by a score of 80-62. Four Rebels are scoring in double figures so far and while there were some injury concerns this week, having almost a full week to prepare for this game and get healthy is huge. Ben Carter (Oregon transfer) and Stephen Zimmerman Jr (NBA prospect) now both appear to be fine and even better is the fact that the team is a perfect 6-0 ATS when taking the floor on five or six days' rest the past two seasons. They are also an impressive 13-1 ATS after scoring 80+ points their last game!

Oregon, while unbeaten, has its issues. Namely they turn the ball over roughly 17 times per game, which is one of the highest averages in the entire country. They've also been outrebounded each of the last two games.  Twice in the last three games they've won close as a favorite, home games against Valparaiso and Fresno State. I would argue that tonight is their toughest test of the season, even more so than Baylor, as that game took place in Eugene.  UNLV has topped 80 pts in four games this season as their offense has become far more efficient compared to 2014-15.  They are also more efficient defensively and are forcing turnovers at a very high rate, which is huge here given Oregon's own TO problems. 8* UNLV

10* Over Stars/Oilers (9:05 ET):  Something has to give here as Dallas (#1 in the league in goals per game) has gone Over in three straight while Edmonton has gone Under in each of its last three games. Since prized rookie Connor McDavid went down, the Oilers have somewhat predictably gone in the tank as they are 4-7-2 w/o him and while they clearly miss his scoring, a bigger problem is the fact they rank 28th in the league in goals allowed. That, on top of the fact they rarely beat the Stars anyway, makes this a pretty horrible matchup on paper for the home team.  Dallas is a virtual lock to tally its fair share of goals in this spot, but surprisingly I think Edmonton will find the back of the net a few times as well.  Take the Over.

The Oilers returned home after a 1-3-1 road trip to face Boston Wednesday night and they lost a wide open game, 3-2 in a shootout.  The teams combined for 76 shots, which is not even the most we've seen in an Oilers' game this season. In fact, there were 77 combined shots in their 3-2 win at Pittsburgh last week, which is another game that went to a shootout. But the pace setter for most shots we've seen in a game involving Edmonton this season is a game that did not go past regulation and that was when they traveled to Dallas early in the season and were outshot 52-28 in a 4-2 loss. I'm expecting a high volume of shots here as well and w/ the embattled Cam Talbot (looking like a bad FA signing) looking like he'll be between the pipes for the Oilers tonight, that means trouble for them.  Talbot has a terrible save percentage this season (.889) and he's allowed at least four goals (on 32 shots or less) each of the L4 times we've seen him.

As for Dallas, like I said earlier, you can expect them to score several times tonight.  They come in averaging a league-best 3.5 goals per game and have gone 10 straight games scoring at least three times!  They won 4-2 last night in Vancouver thanks in large part to a massive 34-16 edge in shots.  As much as Edmonton may have struggled on the offensive end the last several games, I see them easily surpassing 16 shots tonight. Stars' goalie Antti Niemi has an .882 save percentage his L4 starts, so it shapes up as battle of struggling netminders here in what promises to be another "up and down" game. 10* Over Stars/Oilers

8* Northern Illinois (8:00 ET): As you already know, this is the rubber match between NIU and Bowling Green when it comes to MAC Championship Games as the two have met here in Detroit each of the last two seasons.  Two years ago, it was Bowling Green (as a 3-pt underdog) pulling off a somewhat shocking 47-27 upset of the Huskies, who came in unbeaten and with aspirations of playing in a major bowl game. Last year, NIU returned the favor as they waxed the Falcons, 51-17 as five-point favorites. After cashing BG and the Over the L2 years, this time I'm on Northern Illinois, who has not been this large of an underdog in conference play in some time. Both teams pretty much "cleaned up" at the betting window this year, so the points look to be a premium.

Looking back all the way to the 2010 season, Northern Illinois has gotten a touchdown or more from the oddsmakers only three times in MAC play. All three times, including at Toledo earlier this season, they took the game outright! Last year, it was a 31-21 win as 8.5-point pups at Western Michigan and then back in 2011, they were +9.5 in a wild 63-60 victory over Toledo.  Tonight's game marks the most points they have EVER gotten in conference play & while I somewhat understand the notion of it being "Bowling Green's year," the spread is simply too high. The Huskies largest loss this season was 10 points and that was a game where they turned the ball over four times. This team went into Columbus and lost by only seven points against Ohio State!

If you're wondering why NIU isn't getting their usual respect from the oddsmakers here, that has to do w/ the fact the team is turning to its third starting QB of the season, freshman Tommy Fiedler. Having to go to him in an emergency situation (backup Drew Hare injured his leg) against Ohio resulted in the team's first loss in over a month, 26-21 as 11.5-pt chalk. But with over a full week to prepare for this game, I expect Fieldler to play much better. Don't discount just how poor Bowling Green's defense has been this year (allows 422 YPG). After the pointspread was a non-factor each of the L2 years, I think it comes into play tonight. 8* Northern Illinois

10* Missouri (8:00 ET): We're down to 18 teams w/o a loss in College Hoops and undoubtedly one of the weakest is this Northern Illinois team that arrives in Columbia Friday night to take on Mizzou.  With the school's football team competing for a conference championship tonight, NIU hoops figures to have little support here, at the venue or at the betting window. They have played a really weak schedule to this point, including three non-lined opponents in its last four games. So, I would be careful about putting any stock into their numbers so far, particularly a scoring differential of +19.1 points per game. Honestly, I'm surprised the Huskies have even able to navigate such a weak schedule as they are still w/o starting PG Darrell Bowie.  Missouri is more "battle-tested" and I look for them to hand NIU its first loss of the season. Lay the points.

Mizzou is only 3-3 straight up, but has had to step up in competition several times already and that's responsible for those losses (dog in all three). A return home earlier this week led to a much needed 88-78 win over Arkansas State as Kim Anderson's team remained perfect on the season here in Columbia.  The Tigers led the Red Wolves by as many as 24 early in the second half, so that 10-point final margin is even a little bit misleading as it really was a dominant performance from start to finish (13-0 run to open the game). Yes, its a young Tigers team (freshmen responsible for roughly 50% of scoring!), but that's the case w/ the Huskies as well who aren't far behind that number (41.8 percent).

Despite being so young, Missouri is actually improved offensively compared to last season when they didn't even top 80 points once (already done it twice this year). That improvement will come in handy here against a Northern Illinois squad w/ misleading defensive numbers thanks to the aforementioned weak slate of previous opponents. The idea that teams will continue to shoot at only a 36.6 percent clip against NIU seems pretty far fetched to me. Mizzou has shot 49.4% in three home games so far, including 42.6% from three-point range (they also do a good job at getting to the FT line), so I look for them to run the visitors out of the gym here. 10* Missouri

10* New York (7:05 ET):  In this battle for "city supremacy," I feel that one side is being drastically undervalued & that would be the Knicks, who are at home and laying only the standard three. One can only surmise that the reason for that is the Nets' recent surge at the betting window (10-1 ATS L11!), but what's not being taken into account (in my opinion) is their awful road play (1-10 SU).  The Knicks might not be the playoff team that Charles Barkley claimed they'll be, but they are certainly an improved bunch from last year (how could they not be?) and own a far better YTD scoring margin than their counterparts from Brooklyn. This is also a massive revenge spot as they dropped all four meetings LY to the Nets. Lay the points.

The Knicks cashed for me Wednesday night by blowing out a Sixers team that was coming off its first win of the season the night prior. Granted, Philly was w/o the suspended Jahlil Okafor there, but I don't think that mattered much as New York never trailed in the game and entered the fourth quarter w/ a massive 23-point advantage (which is what I expected). It was arguably the Knicks' finest effort since a 122-97 win over Milwaukee in the season opener (another time I was on them!) and also much needed as the team had previously dropped four in a row, SU and ATS.  This Kristaps Porzingis (#4 overall DC) continues to impress as he just turned in his ninth double-double of the season Weds night. Arguably, he's already usurped Carmelo Anthony as the Knicks best player.

As stated before, Brooklyn is just awful out on the road. They are 1-10 SU (but 7-4 ATS) away from the Barclays Center w/ an average scoring differential of -9.5 points per game. The oddsmakers had gotten appropriately generous w/ them following a dreadful 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS start, however, that's clearly not the case here. It would be somewhat unfair to compare the Nets to the Sixers, but Brooklyn still has a bottom five scoring differential in the league and has been favored only one time all season (lost to the Lakers).  They've lost six in a row away from home while allowing 109 PPG, so any past Knicks' offensive issues here at MSG should be rectified. 10* New York

10* Indiana (10:05 ET):  Currently, I have the Pacers rated as the top team in the Eastern Conference (don't think that will last though) as they are coming off a phenomenal November. December got off to a pretty nice start as well as they went into LA and beat the Clippers (who were admittedly w/o Chris Paul) 103-91 as two-point favorites. That puts Indiana at 12-2 SU/ATS since the start of last month and shockingly tonight's opponent (Portland) is getting the same amount of respect a better Clippers team did last night. The only two times Indiana has failed to cover during this streak came when laying big numbers, the two biggest lines they've faced all season in fact. That's not a concern here. 

While Indiana has been surging, Portland has been fading. The Blazers have dropped 10 of 13 overall and I went against them Tuesday night as they blew a second half lead and lost in overtime (here at home) to Dallas as a small favorite. I've previously spoken at length regarding the amount of talent this team lost from last year (four starters!), most notably LaMarcus Aldridge. That puts an undue burden on lone returning starter Damian Lillard as well as the reserves to contribute. Well, Lillard scored 25 points to go along w/ 10 assists and eight rebounds against the Mavs while the bench contributed a season-high 73 points and that still wasn't enough. What now? The pressure placed on Lillard has been felt most at "crunch time" as he is shooting a woeful 26 percent from the floor in the fourth quarter this season. 

After missing the playoffs entirely last season, the Pacers came into 2015-16 w/ high hopes and Paul George (missed almost all of LY due to injury) back in the fold. Things got off to a rocky 0-3 SU/ATS start, but since that time they have posted a per game scoring differential of +10.6, which is second in the league only to (obviously) Golden State. If you're a regular client of mine, then you know I believe teams playing in the second of B2B road games are often undervalued and that is the case here as there can be no doubt as to who the better team is in this particular matchup. Lay the short number. 10* Indiana

8* Green Bay (8:25 ET):  This is a rare instance where I will side w/ the public, who once again is unafraid of "getting down" (in droves) on the Packers off a loss. Overall, Green Bay has dropped four of five and there is clearly IS a problem in the "Land of Cheese."  The team just lost at home, as eight-point favorites, Thanksgiving night to Chicago.  They now face a fate of being swept by the Lions, which I just cannot see happening. As you've already read, I was on Detroit when they traveled to Lambeau three weeks ago and pulled off an improbable 18-16 upset as DD dogs. Honestly, I did not believe the Lions could win that game straight up, but the points were plentiful enough for me to still side w/ them.  That's not the case here, so I'll lay the short number in what is basically a "must-win" spot for the Pack.

The Lions also played on Thanksgiving Day and their result was far different than that of Green Bay's. They destroyed Philadelphia, 45-14, in what was their best offensive output of 2015.  While it marked the team's third consecutive win following a horrid 1-7 SU/ATS start (changed playcallers), it was also just the second time all season that the offense scored more than 20 pts in a game!  A steep decline should be expected tonight on that side of the ball as they won't have the luxury of going up against an Eagles defense that appeared to have zero interest in playing football last Thursday.  While Green Bay's offense has had its issues recently, the defense has been surprisingly strong all year, allowing just 19.5 points per game. They've allowed just 16 PPG the L3 wks, yet lost twice, which is downright shocking when you consider they have Aaron Rodgers.

Detroit has not swept a season series from Green Bay since 1991. I know they just snapped a two-plus decade long losing skid at Lambeau Field, but overall this is still a bad team. Three of their four wins have come by five points or less.  I'm calling for a Packers' turnaround here as they actually outgained the Lions back in Wk 10 (372-287). They also outgained the Bears last week (365-290).  Yes, the Pack did lose LY here in Detroit, which was the game that prompted Rodgers to utter those famous five letters "R-E-L-A-X" and that what I'll say to Pack backers here as well. 8* Green Bay

10* Under Blackhawks/Senators (7:35 ET):  Both of these teams come into Thursday w/ 29 points on the year. For Ottawa, that's landed them in third place in the Atlantic Division (huge gap between 1st place Montreal and everyone else), but they are off consecutive losses (at Arizona, vs. Philadelphia) where goaltending was an issue. Chicago is in fourth place in the always loaded Central and also enters in off B2B losses, the latest coming two nights ago in Minnesota by a score of 2-1. It's a tough call on the side here, but I have a strong opinion on the total, that being we're headed for a low-scoring game here . Take the Under.

Now, I am well aware that Ottawa's last four games have all gone Over the total. They have allowed 15 goals during that span, three times giving up four goals. That's clearly not good and it is concerning to see the team allowing an average of 34.1 shots per game, easily the highest number in the entire league.  Last time out on the ice, they faced Philadelphia, who allows the second most shots per game, so it shouldn't be too much of a surprise that one went Over the 5-goal total (4-2 Flyers' win).  Chicago is a bit more sound defensively (17th in shots allowed) and they'll have Corey Crawford between the pipes here as well. Crawford carries a .914 save percentage and 2.52 goals against average. He made 34 saves Tuesday in a losing effort against the Wild. 

Ottawa's shooting percentage, which is 14.7 its last five games, is certainly due to regress. In retrospect, it was nothing short of amazing that they were able to score SEVEN goals on just 20 shots in a stunning win over Dallas back on November 24th.  Note that the Under is 7-3 this season in Senators' home games when the total is 5.5.  Also, prior to this four-game Over run of theirs, the Sens had posted B2B shutout victories. They rate very low in both Corsi (28th) and Fenwick (29th), meaning that they don't possess the puck very often and that means fewer scoring opportunities. The key here will be keeping the Blackhawks out of the net and fortunately the defending Cup champions' scoring average dips out on the road. Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson has a .922 save percentage here at home. 10* Under Blackhawks/Senators

8* Over Capitals/Canadiens (7:35 ET):  Despite still not having Carey Price in the lineup, Montreal continues to roll as they have a league-best 41 points and +33 goal differential entering Thursday. They've won five of six, all against teams from the Metro, but tonight they welcome in the team that I feel is the best in that particular division, Washington. The Caps are on fire right now having won five straight and in the process, they've tallied 21 goals. This clearly will be Mike Condon's toughest test since assuming the netminding duties for the injuried Price and I believe he will struggle. At the same though, Washington has allowed multiple goals in five of its last six contests, so I'm on the Over in this one.

There's been a little dropoff from Price to Condon between the pipes for the Habs, but shockingly it hasn't been much. Condon has a .935 save percentage his L4 starts after stopping 22 of 23 shots in a 2-1 win over Columbus on Tuesday.  However, look for him to be tested far more by a Caps offense that is firing on all cylinders right now. Washington is averaging nearly 3.3 goals per game this season, good for 3rd in the entire league. As stated earlier, they've been even higher than that lately and even better news is that they have had little difficulty winning here in Montreal in the past. They're 9-0-2 the L11 visits here and that includes a 5-4 win here back in April where they dominated Price (who never has fared well against Washington).

Both of these teams rank in the top five in both goals scored and allowed, which is really impressive and makes this one of the better matchups we'll see all week. Montreal can score too; their 90 goals actually lead the league. So, with two of the top three offenses in the sport here, we certainly have the capability for an Over on paper.  All we need is the goaltenders to "cooperate."  I already went into how the Habs' backup is likely to regress, well, so should Washington's Braden Holtby, who has a .945 save percentage his L4 starts.  The Over is 14-8-4 in all Montreal games this season and with Washington's last three games all going that way, I look for this game to soar past the total.  8* Over Capitals/Canadiens

8* Over Thunder/Heat (7:05 ET):  This is a bit of an interesting call for me as it's certainly not based on recent or YTD results.  Miami has actually been the top Under team in the league to this point (3-13-1), though they did actually go Over their last time out (in a 105-95 home loss to Boston). With so few Overs on their resume, however, there hasn't been a single time that the Heat have gone Over in B2B games. This is somewhat of a "high" total for them, although the last time we saw a 200+ pt total for them (vs. Sacramento), the game did fly Over. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has gone Under in each of its last four games. Both meetings between these two last season stayed Under as well, but I'll call for a different result tonight. Take the Over.

While this total might be considered "high" for Miami, it's actually pretty low for OKC.  In fact, it's currently the second lowest total for any Thunder game all season. Yes, they have gone Under in four straight games, but they have scored 100+ all four times and only a blowout victory over Detroit (103-87) would have stayed Under this number. Over the L5 games, the Thunder have averaged 108.2 PPG.  They average a whopping 113.1 PPG on the road and remember that this is the second most efficient offense in the league right now (behind Golden State, obviously) averaging 107.3 points per 100 possessions. There have been just two games all season where the Thunder haven't scored at least 98 points. That's even including all the time Kevin Durant missed. 

Miami is obviously one of the top defensive teams in the league. They have topped 100 pts just twice since the 1st of November, not a good sign here, but relief comes in the form of the fact the Thunder are allowing 109.7 PPG on the road this season!  Thus far, the Heat haven't taken on many teams like OKC, who are prolific offensively, but struggle defensively.  The most efficient offense they've faced this season was Cleveland (#3) and they gave up 102 points in that game. Also, the team's defense has been slipping of late w/ 100+ pts allowed in two of the last three games as well as four of the last seven. Incredibly, the Thunder attempted only 23 free throws TOTAL in the two games vs. Miami last season.  That number will go up here as should bench scoring (season-low 19 pts Monday).  8* Over Thunder/Heat

10* James Madison (7:00 ET):  Western Michigan is the underdog here and all things considered they've been doing a pretty decent job of competing throughout the early part of the schedule. The Broncos lost projected leading scorer Connar Tava, a senior, to a broken foot right before the season began. Not only did Tava lead the team in scoring last year, he led in rebounding and assists.  So, he's a critical loss.  The Broncos have managed to "tread water," going 3-4 SU overall by alternating wins and losses (or rather, losses & wins). They are off a three-point loss Sunday (to Mercer) in a neutral site affair where they allowed 52.2 percent shooting. While WMU has yet to drop B2B games this season, I believe that comes to an end tonight as they visit a James Madison squad that's overdue for a big night at home.

The favored Dukes come in off B2B road wins over Marshall and Radford.  They are now a perfect 3-0 SU in "true" road games, having opened the season w/ an 87-75 outright win (as 9-pt pups) at Richmond.  However, "life on the homefront" hasn't gone nearly as well. All three lined home games have resulted in non-covers, dropping them to 5-18 ATS the L3 seasons here at the Convocation Center. Two of those non-covers this season have actually been outright losses, to Oral Roberts and Tenn Martin, as seven and 11 pt favorites respectively. However, they have a great opportunity to rectify that poor record as their next seven games are all at home.  While it ended up being a close call Monday vs. Radford, note that JMU actually led by as many as 21 points in the second half.  That followed a similarly dominant performance on the road as the Dukes dominated Marshall, leading by 23 at halftime.

Can that level of play continue here at home? Of course, it can. The Dukes have had no problem scoring this year (78.5 PPG), but the key moving forward lies on the defensive end of the floor, particularly guarding the three-point line. In four home games, opponents have shot 43.5% from behind the arc against JMU, which seems like an unsustainable percentage. Just about every Western Michigan game has been close this year, but they are 0-2 SU in "true" road games and I believe "due" to get blown out.  The loss of Tava will eventually catch up w/ the Broncos, who have a negative assist to turnover ratio this season and trailed the entire way vs. Mercer after falling into an early 24-9 hole.  10* James Madison

8* Gonzaga (11:00 ET):  You'll have to stay up late to watch this one, but I'm confident that tonight will see Washington State lose for the first time. Only 24 teams in the country are still w/o a loss as Wazzu is likely one of the weakest as the Cougars have played just four games, none of which have come against any team of consequence. Now, in comes #13 Gonzaga, who is coming off B2B tough games against ranked opponents. They split the pair, losing to Texas A&M (by one point) and then beating UConn (by three) in the Bahamas. This is a drop in class for the Bulldogs, who are surprisingly just 4-13 ATS in head to head meetings w/ Wash St, including 1-7 here in Pullman. But that's because they've previously faced spreads much larger than this one.  With the SU result a mere formality in my book, I'll lay the points.

As is always the case, many are calling this one of Mark Few's "best teams ever" in Spokane. I'm not sure about that, but the Zags did hold an impressive 16-point lead at halftime against UConn (led by as many as 21 in the second half) before foul trouble took Domantas Sabonis out of the game and allowed UConn to stage a late rally. Foul trouble was again an issue for Sabonis (eventually fouled out) in the loss to A&M, a game Gonzaga still led much of the way. That game was largely determined at the free throw line w/ the Aggies making 11 of 14 and the 'Zags only 4 of 11.  Even w/ this being the first "true" road game of the season, I expect the foul issue to be less of a factor tonight.

To this point, Washington State has taken on: Northern Arizona, Idaho State, CS-Los Angeles and Texas Southern.  So, yes, I'd say this is a large step up in class for them. CS-Los Angeles is a Division II team while the other three are a combined 5-12 straight up this year. Taking on Top 25 opponents did not go well for the Cougs last season as they lost all four games by an average of nearly 18 points per game. That includes a loss to Gonzaga, 81-66 in Spokane as lofty 22.5 pt dogs.   Though 2-0 ATS against Few's team the L2 seasons, Wazzu has actually lost those games by a combined 31 points!  It should be more of the same this year.  8* Gonzaga

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET):  Like the Sixers in another game in this report, the Spurs find themselves in a somewhat unique situation. Only in their case, it's off a loss as they surprisingly fell at Chicago on Monday, 92-89 as four-point favorites. It was the first time all season that Greg Popovich's team lost a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 points. The problem was that they shot only 41.1 percent from the field themselves, one of their lowest percentages in a game all season.  Fortunately, however, tonight they welcome in a Milwaukee team that is one of the worst in the league defensively. The Bucks are 28th in defensive efficiency and allow 105.7 PPG. That simply won't cut it against the best defensive team in the league. Lay the big number.

Here at home, San Antonio is allowing just 85.2 points per game, which is just tremendous. Again, only three teams have scored more than 100 against them this year and all of those games resulted in losses and came on the road.  The 92 points allowed in Chicago Monday night was actually the most they've given up over the L6 games!  Losses have been few and far between for the Spurs this season, but when they're off one, you want to back them the next time out. I say that because they've gone 3-0 SU/ATS in that role w/ every single victory coming by double digits. I was on them the last time when they beat Memphis 92-82.  Their average margin of victory here at home is 14.4 PPG, quite impressive, and they haven't lost a regular season game here since falling to Cleveland last March. Milwaukee has not won a visit to the Alamo since 2008.

While the Spurs are off a rare loss, the Bucks are actually off a win, but the L3 times they've found themselves in this role, they've gotten destroyed. They've lost SU/ATS all three times, all by double digits and by an average of nearly 19 PPG!  While off - easily - their best defensive effort of the year, a 92-74 home win over Denver, the Bucks simply aren't too likely to match that performance on that end of the floor tonight. Over the L3 seasons, the team is 4-17 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less in its previous game.  8* San Antonio

8* Over Rangers/Islanders (8:05 ET):   Though the Rangers continue to pace the Metro w/ a division leading 36 points, advanced stats are not kind to this team.  They rank 30th (i.e. LAST) in both Corsi and Fenwick, indicating that they really struggle to possess the puck and are far too reliant on the goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist. Sure enough, Lundqvist is second in the league in save percentage at .935, trailing only Philadelphia's Michal Neuvirth, who has made significantly fewer starts. A hot goalie certainly can carry a team (especially in the playoffs), but over the long haul that is the NHL's regular season, there can be "slip-ups" and I see one of those occurring tonight in Brooklyn against an Islanders team averaging 3.2 goals per game at home.  Take the Over.

The reason I say take the Over and not the Isles in this spot is because the home team has given up multiple goals in five of its last six contests. They are off a high-scoring affair Monday, a 5-3 home win over Colorado.  They scored five times on just 28 shots and actually their number of shots has been down over the last three games. But I anticipate an increase tonight as the Rangers allow a frightening number of shots per game (34.1!) when taking their act out on the road.  Lundqvist doesn't struggle against many teams, but he certainly has had his issues in the past against the Isles w/ a 4.88 goals against average the L3 meetings. Again, Lundqvist is unlikely to maintain his current season averages in terms of save percentage and GAA. In fact, he's down to a .904 save percentage in his L4 starts overall.

Again though, the Isles are far from a "safe bet" here. Despite being outshot 36-22 on Monday, the Rangers beat Carolina, 4-3.  The Over might be just 1-7 when they are coming off a game where they scored 4+ goals, but again, tonight's opponent has struggled a little bit at preventing goals. Netminder Jaroslav Halak has only needed to make 42 saves his L2 starts after being pulled in a 5-3 loss to Montreal on November 20th.   Over the L3 seasons, the Islanders are 37-21 Over following a game where they scored 4+ goals. Both sides rank in the top eight in the league in number of goals per game. 8* Over Rangers/Islanders

8* New York (7:35 ET):  Philadelphia finds itself in an unusual spot this evening as they are actually coming off a SU win! Last night, at home, saw them defeat the Lakers 103-91 as two-point favorites for their first win of the season. That's right, an 0-18 SU team was actually favored to win, which should tell you all you need to know about the sorry state of the Lakers right now.  Believe it or not, but the Sixers have actually been quite competitive of late, holding a fourth quarter lead in five of the last six games while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread. They are on the road, without rest, which usually signals some value but tonight I do not believe they'll be able to sustain success against a rested and improved Knicks squad.

New York is trending in the wrong direction right now w/ four consecutive SU and ATS losses. Their last came Sunday, here at home vs. Houston, 116-111 in overtime as four-point dogs. Note that Carmelo Anthony missed that game due to a strep throat and is listed as questionable for tonight.  I'm taking a flier here that he will play (pick still stands even if he doesn't!), which would be awesome as he leads the team in scoring w/ a 22.1 PPG average. (Latest reports are that Anthony IS expected to play). But of course, there is the league's top rookie, Kristaps Porzingis, who has eight double-doubles already this season and comes in averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds his L5 games. It's surprising to me that the Knicks are only 3-6 SU/ATS at home this season as they are definitely much improved from last year's disastrous campaign. 

Even off a win and factoring in recent "competitiveness," the Sixers should still be a double digit dog here in my estimation.  Need I remind you that this team is still last in the league in offensive efficiency (by 5 PPG per 100 possessions!) and overall scoring differential (-10.8 points per game). On a recently completed six-game road swing, they were a DD dog five times. I just think that for a young team such as this, there's going to be an inevitable letdown following a win. The team went just 7-11 ATS last season off a SU win and won B2B games just four times. Lay the points.  8* New York

10* Phoenix (7:35 ET):  This is a situation we've been cleaning up in all season, that being a team getting points in the second of B2B road games. Monday, it was Boston cashing for us and last night saw Dallas do the same. Tonight, it's Phoenix, off a narrow (three-point) loss in Brooklyn last night and taking points in Detroit.  The Suns have been setting lately w/ a 1-5 SU/ATS record their L6 games, including some losses on the road to bad teams. But they did win at Toronto Sunday and I think a bounce back is in the cards tonight. Detroit, off just its second win in its last six games, isn't a great candidate to be laying points as they're only 3-5 SU/ATS in that role this season and 29-40 ATS as chalk the L3 seasons. Take the points.

Phoenix, meanwhile, has been a GREAT road team through the years. They are 55-32 ATS away from home the L3 seasons despite last night's loss. Note that after trailing the Nets by double digits in the first half, the Suns actually rallied back to take the lead themselves in the fourth quarter, holding a nine-point advantage at one time!  This is actually a revenge spot for them as they lost outright to the Pistons as four-point chalk back on November 6th, but at the time Detroit was playing much better. In fact, after following that win up w/ another (over Portland) in their next game, the Pistons have gone just 4-8 SU/ATS. In that first meeting, the Suns shot only 40.2 percent from the field, a number which they almost certainly will improve upon this evening. 

Detroit, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of the league in shooting percentage (41.5%) and offensive efficiency. So, I wouldn't put a ton of stock into the fact they just scored 116 points on a season-best 52.9 percent shooting Sunday against the Rockets, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the league.  In three of its previous four games, Detroit failed to score even 90 points. Those offensive woes have obviously contributed to their issues when favored and I think it's more of the same here against an undervalued opponent.  10* Phoenix

10* Butler (7:00 ET):  It's time to start targeting some of these remaining unbeatens in College Basketball as there's only 24 left after three teams that entered last night w/o a blemish on their respective resumes went down. Tonight, I'm looking at Cincinnati, who I think finds itself in a less favorable spot compared to visiting Butler despite this being the latter's first "true" road game this season. I say that because the Bulldogs have had to play only once (Saturday) since suffering their first & only loss (to Miami) on November 22nd. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are coming off three games in four days (last one Saturday) as they won the Barclays Center Classic. I have these teams rated basically even, so even after factoring in home court, the value is still on the dog.  Take the points.

Cincinnati is 7-0 SU, but each of its last two wins, over Nebraska and George Washington, were close. Saturday saw them rally back from a halftime deficit to defeat GW.  Incredibly, the Colonials attempted only FOUR free throws for the entire game! Granted, hot three-point shooting (in the first half) was what kept them in the game. But it was similarly close win for Cincy the previous day against Nebraska (65-61 as 12.5-pt chalk).  Defensively, the Bearcats are 4th nationally in PPG allowed (54.6), but I worry about their offense, which has failed to top 65 pts in three consecutive games, especially w/ Octavius Ellis battling back issues.  That makes taking the points all the more attractive here in what shapes up as the Bearcats' toughest test to date.

Butler has not had many offensive issues this year as they come in ranked 4th nationally in points per game at 95.0. Granted, that has a lot to do w/ a monster 144-point effort against The Citadel in the season opener.  But they shot 56.6 percent from the floor in Saturday's win over SIU-Edwardsville and the fewest points they've scored in any game this season is 74. A real key for the Bulldogs is that they take great care of the basketball, averaging just 9.8 turnovers per game.  Keep an eye on Kellen Dunham, who projects to be one of the best players in the Big East this season. Butler is 7-3 ATS its L10 road games vs. a team w/ a winning record. 10* Butler

10* Over Penguins/Sharks (10:35 ET):  I'm not sure that I'm a real "buyer" on Pittsburgh as of yet as they've been outscored this season (despite a winning record). What's been the biggest surprise this season is how much of an "Under" team they've been, going 6-14-3. They are a somewhat shocking 26th in goals scored per game (2.2), but what has saved them (literally!) is being 6th in goals allowed (2.3 per game).  Their last two games, both losses, saw them fall 2-1 and 3-2 respectively to Columbus and Edmonton.  Those are bad losses and tonight they head to the Shark Tank where they've come up short 11 of their previous 13 visits. Yet, I'm going to call for a higher scoring contest than you might expect.  Take the Over.  

San Jose is off a five goal effort (2nd in last 3 games), against Calgary, who is allowing the most goals per game in the entire league. The other 5-goal effort came at the expense of Columbus, who isn't much better in that department. It will be a tougher chore solving Marc-Andre Fleury and the Pens tonight, but San Jose is averaging a healthy 32.6 shots per game here at home.  While the Sharks have had success in the past here at home vs. the Penguins, their success this season on home ice has been somewhat limited.  They have a losing record here due to a very poor save percentage (.898) and while Pittsburgh has struggled to score goals this season, I think they're due to break out offensively considering their own average of 33.8 shots the L5 games. 

Special teams are likely to play a role in this game going Over the total.  Pittsburgh has scored a power play goal in six consecutive contests, but at the same time has given up at least one when short-handed nine of the L10 games. Meanwhile, San Jose has scored 7 of the last 29 times they've had the man advantage.  Fleury's save percentage (.940!) on the road is unsustainable as is the Pens' 8-1 Under record on the road (just 1.8 gpg).  The Over is 6-3 here in San Jose home games and that's despite a relatively poor 7.7 shooting percentage from the Sharks. Ten days ago in Pittsburgh, San Jose got off 39 shots against the Penguins and if they do that again, this likely turns into a high-scoring affair. 10* Over Penguins/Sharks

8* Dallas (10:05 ET): We're likely to get a change of favorite here despite the fact that the Mavericks lost last night in Sacramento (really let me down!). Perhaps bettors are catching on to "my" strategy of teams playing the second of B2B road games consistently being undervalued (won w/ Boston in that spot last night).  Despite last night's loss, that appears to be the case again tonight as Portland just isn't very good (had to replace FOUR starters from LY's team, including LaMarcus Aldridge). The Blazers also played last night, and lost, 102-87 at the Clippers as seven-point dogs. While the home team captured all four meetings between these two last season, this is a much different Portland team and I'm on the visitors here.

Prior to last night's 15-point loss, Portland had won three of five straight up while going 4-1 ATS.  But two of the wins and covers came the expense of the sorry Lakers. Before that "mini-streak," the team had dropped seven in a row.  Like I said earlier, it's going to be a clear step back for this team this season due to the large turnover in personnel. Tonight, things go from "bad to worse" as their lone returning starter from LY (Damian Lillard) is likely to miss this game due to an undisclosed illness. He left last night's game w/ an upset stomach relatively early (played just 17 minutes) and from that point it was all Clippers, who outscored the Blazers by 15 in the second half - identical to the final margin. Things could have been even worse for Portland last night had DeAndre Jordan not missed 22 of 34 free throws!

Dallas was actually up at the half last night in Sacramento (58-54).  But when they returned from the break, things began to fall apart, especially in the third quarter when they were held to just 13 points. That was a far cry from the third quarter in their previous game when they held Denver to just five points! Giving up 36 pts in the fourth quarter to the Kings certainly didn't help matters either.  The team was just 9 for 37 from three-point range last night w/ Dirk Nowitzki going 0 for 4 and Wes Matthews going 2 for 8.  So far, Dallas is 3-1 straight up in the second night of back to backs while Portland is 1-3 SU/ATS.  8* Dallas

8* North Carolina (9:30 ET):  There's only 27 remaining unbeatens in College Hoops following Fresno State's loss last night.  One of them is Maryland, who embarks on - by far - its toughest test to date tonight at North Carolina as a part of the annual Big 10/ACC Challenge. These two programs are obviously no strangers to one another as they are former conference rivals (Maryland in the ACC).  Believe it or not, but the Big 10 has owned this event recently as the ACC has not won it since 2008 after previously never losing one! Because they are undefeated, I feel the underdog Terps come in overvalued as I don't see the Tar Heels losing in Chapel Hill.  This is Maryland's first "true" road game of the season. Lay the points.

UNC already has played a "true" road game and that accounted for the team's only loss, 71-67 at Northern Iowa where they were 6.5-point favorites.  Overall, the Tar Heels have failed to cover four straight, which has clearly contributed to them being undervalued tonight. They are off B2B double digit wins (by 11 and 10 pts), however, over Northwestern and Kansas State in Kansas City as part of the CBE Hall of Fame Classic. Remember that this was the preseason #1 team in the country as they returned nine of their top 10 scorers from a year ago. One of those is senior guard Marcus Paige, projected to be the team's leading scorer. Due to a broken hand, Paige has yet to play this season, but good news Tar Heels fans (and readers here!) - Paige is making his season debut tonight & will start.

Maryland has experienced a great deal of good fortune since making the jump to the Big 10 last season. Most notably, they have gone 13-1 SU in games decided by five points or less.  That includes a 75-71 win over Georgetown earlier this season. Like UNC, the Terrapins have had their issues covering the spread (1-4 ATS L5), including their last time out as they failed as 22-point chalk against a bad Cleveland State team, winning only 80-63. The Terps led by only four at the break in that one. They have not won in Chapel Hill since 2008, including a 12-pt loss here their last year in the ACC, which dropped them to 4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS their previous 15 visits. This is one of the cheapest prices we will get on UNC at home all year. 8* North Carolina

9* Under Stars/Flames (9:05 ET):  This would certainly qualify as a bit of a "contrarian" play as we have the league's highest scoring team (3.5 goals per game) facing off against the team giving up the highest number of goals per game (3.6/game). That would be Calgary, who considering a paltry scoring average on the offensive end are "up against" it here. It certainly seems the Stars are being undervalued in this spot, but instead I'll turn to the Under as it's cashed in five of Dallas' last seven games anyway and I don't see the Flames scoring many goals, if any, this evening. The main issue for the Stars here is that #1 netminder Kari Lehtonen (6-0-0 this year) is unavailable (head injury), however, backup Antti Niemi should be able to fill in just fine here.  Take the Under.

Calgary returns home from a winless road trip that saw them allow five goals in two of the three games. That includes the last as they were beaten by San Jose, 5-2.  However, one thing I've noticed w/ the Flames (who are LAST in my own personal power ratings, by the way) lately is that they've been doing a pretty good job at limiting the number of opponents' shots on goal. They were outshot 29-27 by the Sharks on Saturday, but in three of their previous four games had allowed 21 or fewer shots, which is a very good thing. Six of the team's last eight games have actually seen five or fewer total goals scored. Part of the reason this team has been so bad has been their woeful special teams; they are 29th on the power play (1 for last 21) and 30th on the penalty kill. The unit more likely to progress is the latter as in two of the previous three games, the PK went 0 for 2. That's abnormally bad. 

Dallas can obviously put the puck in the net w/ great regularity and they had 44 shots on goal in Saturday's 4-3 OT win at division rival Minnesota. So the pressure is obviously on Calgary netminder Karri Ramo, who has been his team's best option between the pipes w/ a 1.49 goals against average the L4 home games.  He was not in goal Saturday, but was Friday in Arizona when he allowed only one goal in regulation. The Stars were actually scoreless entering the third period on Saturday, so the final score there was actually a bit misleading.  9* Under Stars/Flames

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET):  Home teams cleaned up last night in NBA, going 6-1 against the spread and here we have the Cavs, who are unbeaten this season at Quicken Loans Arena (9-0 SU w/ avg MOV by 8.5 PPG).  LeBron and company will have to top that average margin of victory tonight as they welcome in Washington, but fortunately for both their & our cause here, the Wizards have routinely been getting blown out when leaving D.C.  The Wiz have dropped four of their previous five road games w/ every loss coming by double digits. Overall, they've lost four in a row. Cleveland has lost only four times this season and while it was a bit of a rough November at the betting window, they should have no problem winning by double digits here.  Lay the points. 

As I've stated previously, Washington came into the season promising to push the pace. They have, but the change in strategy has not let to better results.  The team is currently two games below .500 and being outscored by nearly six points per game, one of the worst scoring differentials in the entire league. They'd lost three in a row by an average of 21 PPG, all against lesser competition than what they'll face here, before dropping a game to Toronto by a deuce on Saturday. Defensively, they've been a disaster, giving up an Eastern Conference high 105.1 PPG. Offensively, things have been no better as the team has shot below 36% in three consecutive games (< 33% L2 games!). Right now, I'm not sure this is even a playoff team in an improved East.

Meanwhile, to no one's surprise, Cleveland is pacing the Eastern Conference w/ a 13-4 SU record. They did have more trouble than expected here at home vs. Brooklyn Saturday night, winning only 90-88 as LeBron won the game on a hook shot in the final seconds, but it was their second straight strong performance on the defensive end and offensively they are top three in the league in terms of efficiency. Washington has been held to an average of 82.3 PPG its last three contests and is unlikely to keep pace w/ a Cavaliers squad averaging 106.2 PPG here at home.  10* Cleveland

10* St. Joseph's (7:00 ET): With Fresno State losing last night, that leaves only 27 teams w/o a loss this season.  One of them is Villanova, who as previously noted I've targeted as a 'play against' team this season. Not that I don't have respect for Jay Wright's Wildcats, who went 33-3 straight up a year ago and really dominated the Big East.  But, my "issue" with them is an ATS record that has reached an unsustainable level (51-21 L2 seasons!). I've lost a couple of times going against them this season as they were able to rattle off runs of 22-0 and 24-0 in the first halves. But on Thanksgiving, I notched a nice cover at their expense, taking the points w/ Stanford. Now we're getting 'Nova playing their first "true" road game of the season & I'll take the points here w/ cross-town rival St. Joe's.

After failing to cover on Turkey Day vs. Stanford, Villanova (who won the game 59-45) went on to win the NIT Championship by blowing out Georgia Tech, 69-52 as 11-point chalk. The Wildcats have now won every game by double digits, the closest margin being 14 points. But during the course of the NIT, we did see their scoring average dip down to 64 points per game (in the two neutral site games), which will make it more difficult to consistently cover spreads such as this one. A major key for them so far has been their opponents shooting very poorly from three-point range. Stanford and Georgia Tech combined to shoot only 17.4 percent from behind the arc, which is obviously just awful. Yes, we need to credit the Nova defense, but at the same time, teams should be shooting better than that even against a good defense.

St. Joe's should be rested and ready for this all-Philly matchup as they haven't taken the court in over a week (November 22nd). They won their last game, 66-64 over Old Dominion, as a 1-point dog in a Holiday Tournament of their own (Naismith Classic). That was a nice bounce back from their first loss of the year, 74-63 to Florida the previous day. The underdog Hawks match up nicely here as they too have been outstanding at guarding the three-point line and have some nice size as well (10 blocks last game!). After losing to Villanova the L2 years (by an average of 29 PPG!), this is a massive revenge spot. 10* St. Josephs

8* Dallas (10:05 ET): The Mavericks got back on track Saturday night w/ a 92-81 win in Denver and given that they've now covered eight of their last 10 games overall, this seems like a really low number to be laying against a bad Sacramento team that very well could be w/o its best player (DeMarcus Cousins) yet again tonight. The Mavs took all three matchups with the Kings last season, two of them here in California's capital city. Surprisingly, Sacramento had been 5-0-1 ATS since the start of the 2013-14 season vs. Dallas, but that was before they got hammered here at Sleep Train Arena, 101-78 as three-point dogs, back in February. Off B2B double digit losses, I don't see the Kings getting back on track here.

Defensively, Sacramento has major issues (why I also like the Over here!). They've allowed 118+ points in three of their last four games and while the last one came against unbeaten Golden State, the other two were games vs. Charlotte and Milwaukee.  They also lost by 10 to Minnesota (as three-point chalk) here at home on Friday. Despite the reasonable amount of ATS success vs. the Mavs the previous two seasons, that has not translated into wins for the Kings as they have lost six straight times to them as well as 21 of the last 23 meetings. With the line so low for tonight, you have to assume that SU winner = ATS winner. 

As I said at the open, the Mavs snapped a three-game losing streak (played Memphis, OKC and San Antonio) w/ a 92-81 win over Denver on Saturday.  It was the defense stepping up there (will talk more about that in the analysis for the Over), but tonight I feel its the offense "due to break out" as this is the first time all season that they've gone three straight games w/o scoring 100 points.  It's been established just how poor Sacramento is defensively (allow a league-high 109.1 PPG!), so I look for that little streak to come to an end here. Pertinent is the fact that Dallas is 9-2-1 against the spread the L3 seasons as a road favorite of three points or less, winning all but one of those games outright. Again, it's highly unlikely that the pointspread comes into play here, so all we need is a SU win. 8* Dallas

8* Over Mavericks/Kings (10:05 ET): Given that I've already talked about this matchup rather extensively, I'll keep this portion of the analysis relatively "short and sweet" as I also like this game to go Over the total.  Dallas' last two games were very low-scoring, so you might be surprised to see an O/U line this high. Don't be.  Those last two games saw them play San Antonio (top defensive team in the league) and then Denver, who scored only five (!) points in a decisive third quarter Saturday night. Sacramento has been the worst defensive team in the league this year (allow 109.1 PPG), so this number isn't very high for them at all as their average O/U line is 210 points anyway.  Note that Dallas did allow more than 50+ points in the first half to the Nuggets before the record-setting third quarter.  While the status of Boogie Cousins (27.9 points per game) is irrelevant to my play on the side (Kings are 1-7 SU w/o him this year), it would help the Over's cause if he were to be on the floor tonight. Regardless, Sacramento won't be as bad offensively as Denver was Saturday in Dallas and they are due to improve upon their lousy 39.0% overall shooting from the Golden State game Saturday night. 8* Over Mavericks/Kings

10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): For a second straight season, the Pacific Division looks relatively weak.  Yes, Anaheim won it last year, tied for a Conference-leading 109 points. But there was certainly a lot of "smoke and mirrors" involved there, namely "puck luck" and a ridiculous record in one-goal games. (They actually had the worst goal differential of any playoff team!). So, the Ducks' regression this season has not surprised me at all as they are 8-11-5 w/ a goal differential of -18 that ranks among the worst in the entire league.  Even at The Pond as a small favorite, I don't see much value in this club right now; in fact the value is on the other side here w/ a Vancouver team due to break through after dropping six of its previous eight games (and 9 of its last 12).

Advanced stats kind of like this Canucks club as they rank in the top nine in both Corsi and Fenwick. (Anaheim is just outside the Top 10 in both).  Though they haven't had much success out on the ice lately, there have been three losses beyond regulation since November 8th, including their last time out (at Central-leading Dallas). In addition, they have lost four more times by exactly one goal in regulation during this skid. In many of these recent losses, they've actually had a large edge in shots, Friday included as they were 36-25 in that department against a Dallas team known for its offense. While top in goals per game and on the power play, penalty killing has been the main issue in Vancouver as they have allowed a PP goal on 14 of the L44 chances. They shouldn't have to worry much about giving up goals here, however, as Anaheim is 29th in the league in goals per game.

It's interesting to see how this year, luck has gone against the Ducks. They have lost five of the six games they've been in that went past regulation, including Friday at home to Chicago where they gave up two goals in the final two minutes and then the GW in OT. Vancouver has already come to Anaheim and won this season, 2-1 back on October 12th.  The Ducks -19 goal differential at even strength is the league's worst this season, so provided the Canucks rectify their PK issues, they should pick up a valuable two points on the road here. 10* Vancouver

10* Over Ravens/Browns (8:25 ET): Much will be made here of who ISN'T on the field for the respective offenses. What had already been a nightmare season for Baltimore somehow took a further turn for the worse (even in victory) last week as both QB Joe Flacco (ACL/MCL) and RB Justin Forsett (broken arm) were lost for the season! That leaves journeyman Matt Schaub under center and keep in mind that both of the team's projected starting receivers are out for the year as well! As for Cleveland, you know they upset the execs at ESPN when the decision was made to bench Johnny Manziel for this game due to the "same old" off-field antics we've come to expect. Despite all the absences, I'm still anticipating a relatively high scoring affair here or enough to go Over what is a very low total by today's NFL standards. Take the Over.

These teams already played once this season and the result of that first meeting was a 33-30 OT win for the Browns, who haven't won since.  It's been five straight losses in Cleveland and in the last four games, they've averaged a pathetic 11.25 points and less than 300 yds per game. For as much talk about how Manziel can be a more "dynamic" element for this offense, it was veteran Josh McCown that had a career day vs. Baltimore last month, throwing for a career-best 457 yards. That was easily Cleveland's best offensive day of the season and it's not difficult to see why. The Ravens' defense has fallen off a cliff this year, yielding 5.7 yards per play and almost 25 points per game. Another season-ending injury, one to top pass-rusher Terrelle Suggs, has been a contributing factor there. But, there's also as little talent on that side of the ball as we've even seen in Baltimore.  I see no reason why McCown can't have another big day here.

Nationally, this is obviously a very unappealing matchup. But because both teams are out of it, we could very well see another shootout. Cleveland's defense is one of the worst in the league statistically as they allow 27.7 PPG and Baltimore should absolutely be able to run the ball effectively here as the Browns yield 139 rushing YPG, most in the league. All four Browns' home games to this point have gone Over the total as they've scored at least 20 points every time out. Both teams should be able to get to that benchmark tonight in what could end up being an entertaining, albeit totally meaningless, game.  10* Over Ravens/Browns

10* San Antonio (8:05 ET):  Even though they're the road team here, I don't think that the Spurs are getting nearly enough respect tonight in Chicago. This is a squad that's lost just three times all season, all on the road, but otherwise they've allowed 100+ in just one other game. The results is that Greg Popovich's team is the best defensively in the entire league, giving up just 89.7 points per game, and that should serve them well here against a Bulls team that ranks near the bottom of the barrel in terms of offensive efficiency. The change at head coach from Tom Thibodeau to Fred Hoiberg was supposed to lead to an "uptick" in offense in the Windy City, but they average only 97.3 points per 100 possessions and it's an ugly list looking at those below them.  Lay the points here.

Since their last loss (in New Orleans on November 20th), the Spurs have won five in a row (granted, four at home) and allowed a minuscule average of just 83.4 PPG in the process!  The consistency has been remarkable as no opponent during that time has topped 90 points!  Points should again be at a premium here w/ the Under being a perfect 6 for 6 this season in Bulls' home games.  Typically, you'd think that would favor the team getting points, but Chicago is just 1-5 ATS at the United Center and I wonder where their points will even come from. This is the first game back following a four-game road trip that ended w/ a 104-92 loss in Indiana on Friday as the Bulls shot below 40 percent for a third consecutive contest. Normally, I might call for some "good ol'" progression to the mean, but this is not the opponent for that. 

San Antonio has held six of its last nine opponents to 84 pts or less, which is downright incredible.  That makes them a tough matchup for anyone (even Golden State!), but particularly the Bulls, who were an atrocious 21 of 66 on two-point field goal attempts Friday.  Keep mind that that the Spurs just held Atlanta, a team that came in averaging 106.4 points its previous five games, to only 88.  That improved them to 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference this season and the bottom line is that the Bulls are a pretty mediocre bunch right now.  10* San Antonio

8* North Texas (8:00 ET): One of the worst football seasons in school history was just completed at North Texas, but for the Denton faithful, at least there's hoops. Monday sees the Mean Green traveling to Cedar Falls to take on a Northern Iowa team that IMO is going to be overvalued for a while due to an upset of then #1 North Carolina back on November 21st as 6.5 pt home pups (won 71-67). Since that time, the Panthers have won twice, 83-63 over Dubuque (who?) and 97-51 (7th largest margin of victory in program history) at North Dakota. But the UNT team they welcome in Monday will be one in a surly mood considering it just suffered three painful home losses in three days last week.  Take the points in this one.

Yes, you read that correctly. In a three-day span, North Texas lost three times on its home floor, in an event that was dubbed "The Mean Green Challenge."  While it ended up being not much of a "challenge" for opponents, note that two of the losses suffered came by exactly two points and the third saw Troy get ridiculously hot from the field in the second half as in 55 points while making 17 of their final 25 shots.  Even w/ the step up in class here, North Texas should not expect to be victimized by such red-hot shooting. They actually led that game at the half Wednesday and in the previous two games they had a potential GW three-pointer waved off (too late) and another go against them.  I fully expect we'll get this team's best shot on the road Monday and they are 16-8 ATS L24 away games, including 6-2 ATS when taking 12.5 or more points.

Northern Iowa played over the weekend while North Texas did not, so that's an edge for the underdog right there.  While the Panthers need to get their "just due" for what they did against North Carolina, the two games before that are more pertinent than the last two, IMO.  Those first two contests of the season saw them lose outright (as 7.5-pt chalk) to Colorado State and then beat Stephen F. Austin by only 10.  The Panthers shot the ball at over a 58% clip their last two games and that number almost certainly comes down tonight. I also can't see UNT shooting only 29.7 percent from the floor like North Dakota did on Saturday. Laying this many points while playing for a second time in three days catches up with the big favorite.  8* North Texas

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  I like to make the case that NBA teams playing the second of back to back games are often undervalued, especially when out on the road. That's the case here and w/ Boston we're getting a few extra points "thanks" to the fact that they lost yday in Orlando, 110-91.  Keep in mind though that when this team wins, it usually does so in blowout fashion as all but one of the Celtics' nine victories this season have been by 13 or more points! (Ironically, the exception came against winless Philadelphia!) While I'm not going so far as to call for an outright victory here, the points do seem generous in a matchup of two teams I have rated as essentially even.  Take the points.

Points are likely to be at a premium in this one as Miami has gone Under in 13 of its last 14 games. In two of the last three games, they've given up only 78 points, but take note that both of those were against the Knicks. The Heat's own offense has had its issues this season as they come in averaging just 96.3 points per game, so they're hardly a great candidate to be laying points right now. As chalk, they're only 6-6 ATS this season w/ three outright losses. They've shot just 42.6% from the field the L5 games and Boston will be the best offensive foe they've taken on in some time. Over the last eight games, the Heat have played just one opponent ranked in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency and that game was against Sacramento, the lone Over for them since the season opener. 

There was some surliness and general discontent from Celtics' players (Jae Crowder in particular) following yday's loss to Orlando.  Look for this bit of news to drive the line up even further.  The key for Boston here is to hold Miami under 100 points as they have yet to win a single game (0-7 SU) when allowing triple digits.  That shouldn't be too much a problem here as the Heat come in averaging just 96.3 PPG. Also, the Celtics should see a reasonable improvement in their overall shooting from Sunday, particularly from distance as they were just 5 for 27 versus the Magic. Also, when you talk defense, be sure to take note that the C's force 19.5 turnovers per game, most in the league. 8* Boston

8* Denver (8:30 ET):  The last time the Broncos came in as a home dog for a Sunday night game, I was all over them, despite the fact their unbeaten record was being discredited at the time. We all remember what happened there as they destroyed Green Bay in a battle of 6-0 teams, 29-10, holding Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to just 140 total yards in one of the most impressive defensive efforts of this entire season. In three weeks, much has changed and I'm not just talking about the fact Denver has since suffered two losses of its own. No, the big difference is that Peyton Manning is out of the lineup and in his place is Brock Osweiler.  But the situation as another unbeaten, that being 10-0 New England, comes to town remains the same. Denver is a home dog and I'll take the points.

In Osweiler's first career start, Denver won 17-15 over Chicago, on the road. Under his direction, the offense rolled to 389 total yards and 21 first downs.  Osweiler threw a pair of TD passes, but more importantly, he didn't turn the ball over. That was the problem w/ Manning under center (or in the shotgun/pistol for that matter) as the team was -7 in turnover margin in its two losses. Against Chicago, the defense even forced a pair of TO's after not forcing any the previous three games. As blasphemous as it may sound, Gary Kubiak's offense is likely to be run more efficiently w/ Osweiler at QB.  Osweiler is also likely to have a full compliment of receivers here w/ Emmanuel Sanders slated to return. Again though, just like last week, the key for the Broncos is their defense, which is second in the league in points (18.3 per game) and first in yards (284.3 per game) allowed. 

This is actually a matchup of the #1 and #2 teams in PPG allowed.  New England is your surprising league leader at one-tenth of a point per game better than Denver. However, they are allowing almost 60 more YPG, illustrating a more "bend but don't break" mentality.  While the Broncos being w/o both Manning and DeMarcus Ware has grabbed headlines, the Patriots' supporting cast has been hit hard by injuries, leaving Tom Brady w/ a fairly "bare cupboard" to work with outside of TE Rob Gronkowski. Something else to consider is that this is just the second road game for the Pats since mid-October. They were fortunate to win their last one, 27-26 over the Giants. New England has to lose sooner or later and this appears to be the most likely spot. 8* Denver

10* Over Patriots/Broncos (8:30 ET): This is actually a matchup of the top two scoring defenses in the league, which is not what you expect when analyzing Patriots-Broncos as it's normally the offense grabbing the headlines. That fact, combined with some expected chilly weather conditions, have led to the O/U line being bet down significantly and I feel it's now an opportune time to take advantage of an overreaction and to play the Over. Remember that I played the Under Monday night w/ the Patriots as they won an ugly one over the Bills, 20-13. This will easily be the lowest O/U for any game this year involving New England, a team that comes in averaging 32.3 points per game.  Take the Over.

The Patriots' defense may be #1 in scoring, but they allow roughly 60 yards per game more than the Broncos. That has them at 14th in total defense, indicating they've been fortunate to give up as few points as they have. They also haven't faced very many good offenses throughout the year. They allow 18.7 yards per point, which is extremely fortunate.  Only Pittsburgh has been more "bend but don't break" league-wide at 19.4 yards per point allowed.  I've made the case previously that the Denver offense is likely to be more efficient w/ Brock Osweiler under center as opposed to Peyton Manning and I mean it as he's more likely to run the kind of attack HC Gary Kubiak wants. Remember that this Broncos' offense is loaded w/ weapons at the skill positions and gets WR Emmanuel Sanders back here.  They gained almost 400 yards in last week's win over the Bears.

New England's offense is rapidly losing playmakers, but there hasn't been a game all year that they haven't scored at least 20 points.  Last week marked the season-low as Buffalo was able to pressure Tom Brady, but will Denver be able to do the same w/o DeMarcus Ware?  I do expect the Broncos defense to have success in this game, but only to a degree.  Again, with this being such a low total for the Patriots, we don't even need either team to hit its season average in points per game. Note that five of the past six meetings between these two have gone Over and in five of those games the O/U line was greater than 50 points.  10* Over Patriots/Broncos

10* UT Arlington (6:00 ET):  What do the Mavericks have to do to get some respect around here?  After beating BOTH Ohio State and Memphis outright, on the road, they destroyed Grambling 73-40 on Wednesday. For those "keeping score at home," that's a 33-point win (no line) after covering the spread by a combined 39 points the previous two games.  The opponent here, Rice, is stronger than Grambling (few aren't!), but a definite huge drop in class from Memphis and Ohio State.  This isn't the first time I've stepped out against Rice; I did so back on November 16th when they got blown out 80-54 at San Francisco. They've won B2B games after an 0-4 start, but still give up 83.5 PPG and are w/o projected leading scorer Marcus Jackson.

Neither upset from UT Arlington was fluky in the least.  Against Ohio State, they took the lead for good early in the second half and went up by as many as nine. They were even more impressive at Memphis, jumping out to a double-digit lead at halftime. While they did relinquish the lead momentarily in the 2H, it was impressive that they were able to go up by that much despite shooting just 33.3% for the game. In fact, the Mavericks have been below 38 percent from the field for four straight games. The fact that they have been so successful during that time, while shooting that poorly, is pretty impressive. The key, as you might expect, has been their defense. Neither Memphis nor Grambling has been able to shoot better than 30 percent against them.  

Rice has not been nearly as stout defensively.  In fact, their first four opponents all shot better than 50 percent from the field. The fewest points they've allowed in a game this season is 77 and keep in mind that the Owls have played a schedule far weaker to date than has UT Arlington. Injuries have taken an early season toll as two projected starters were not in the lineup at the start of the season. The most notable was the one to Jackson, a junior that started all but one game last season.  UT-Arlington is 19-13 ATS on the road the L3 seasons and giving up almost 20 PPG fewer.  10* UT Arlington

10* Arizona (5:00 ET):  I realize that the 11th ranked Wildcats are off a loss here (to Providence), but this looks like a very short number for them to lay here against a team they've already beaten this year. Granted, the first meeting vs. Boise State came in Tucson and they may be w/o Kaleb Tarczewski here in Anaheim, but they should still have enough horses to get by the Broncos yet again.  They were in position to beat Providence on Friday, but allowed the Friars to go on a 10-2 run to close the game, resulting in a 69-65 final. Because they were playing on B2B days, Tarczewski could not play on an ankle he injured in Thursday's OT win over Santa Clara. Having had Saturday off, there's a greater chance he'll play here, but with or without him, they are the play here.

It's a little rare to see two teams play each other twice this early in the campaign, but not unprecedented. While Boise State did cover back on November 19th, it was by just one-half point as 12.5-pt dogs. The linesmakers aren't being nearly as generous here, obviously, on a neutral court.  That first meting saw Arizona shoot 54.2 percent from the field, a number they have been unable to match in any of the L3 games. It was a close game for much of the second half, until 'Zona went on a run late. It also helped that BSU only shot 35.7% from the field after halftime. Neither team's leading scorer shot well and I expect the Wildcats' Ryan Anderson to bounce back Sunday as he's coming off a game where he had 27 points and 12 rebounds. 

Even w/o Tarczweski, the Wildcats still had the rebouding edge Friday, by a wide margin (43-22), but w/ the exception of second chance points, they struggled to score in the paint.  The team has failed to cover four in a row, so that's played a major role in this line being smaller than what it should be. Meanwhile, Boise State has covered its last four games, but is off a loss as well as Michigan State beat them 77-67 on Friday.  Again, that was a half-point cover for the Broncos, who struggled to rebound in the contest.  Arizona has won 36 of its last 40 non-conference games, so the bounce back is likely here. 10* Arizona

10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET):  Though Seattle's home field edge is well-known, the fact is they've already lost twice here at Century Link Field this season and this is a classic case of the better team getting points. Arguably the best team in football over the L3 years, the Seahawks have taken a step backwards in 2015.  In fact, they have yet to beat a single good team on their schedule.  Their five wins so far have come at the expense of San Francisco (two), Dallas (no Romo), Chicago (no Cutler) and Detroit when there was a major gaffe by the officials. In other words, all they've done is beat arguably the four worst teams in the NFC. Pittsburgh arrives in the Pacific Northwest at 6-4 (despite missing Ben Roethlisberger for three games) and is off a bye.  Take the points.

We know that Seattle has blown a fourth quarter lead in all five of its losses, so you can certainly make the argument that they are better than their record, but at the same time their defense is not as good as its reputation. That's bad news when getting set to face a Pittsburgh offense that can certainly put plenty of points on the board. Despite almost never having their famed "triplets" (Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell) on the field all at the same time, the Steelers still are scoring 23.6 PPG and while that doesn't sound nor look that impressive, remember that includes multiple awful performances w/ Mike Vick at the helm. They've averaged 34 PPG in B2B wins over Oakland and Cleveland, averaging an awesome 528 yards per game. 

On defense, the Steelers have held four of their previous six opponents under 80 yards rushing.  That's huge when getting set to face a rather one-dimensional Seattle offense that is rapidly losing its identity w/o RB Marshawn Lynch.  Yes, rookie Thomas Rawls is off a strong 209 yard effort LW, but that came against the lowly 49ers.  The trade that brought over TE Jimmy Graham has been an unmitigated disaster and only served to make an already suspect Seahawks offensive line all the more suspect. So far, Pittsburgh is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against the NFC West and a good ol' fashioned "Blitzburgh" game plan would serve them well here. Again, they are off a late season bye here. 10* Pittsburgh

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET):  I realize that Arizona won the first meeting handily, 47-7, back in Week 3. But this rematch has all the makings of massive letdown spot for the NFC West leaders following big wins in primetime over Seattle and Cincinnati the L2 weeks. Furthermore, take note that the line for that first matchup had Arizona favored by only seven and that was at home.  Typically, division dogs of a TD or more are a pretty good value (see Chicago Thurs night) and it's pretty rare to find one getting this many at home. With three of their previous four wins coming by eight points or less, the Cardinals look like prime fade material in this spot, especially w/ a revenge game on deck next week at St. Louis.

The 49ers rank 32nd, which is obviously last, in my own power ratings. So this play does require a bit of leap of faith.  Things have clearly been trending down ever since the foolish decision to sever ties w/ Jim Harbaugh, but here at home the team has been more competitive. It's where all three of their victories have occurred, including upsets of Minnesota and Atlanta.  Defensively, they've actually been great here at Levi's Stadium, holding opponents to just 15.2 points per game!  Offensively, it's now Blaine Gabbert the rest of the way at QB as Colin Kaepernick's season is over due to injury.  That sounds scary, but Gabbert probably can't play any worse that Kaepernick did in the first meeting w/ Arizona when he had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in the first five minutes.

The Cardinals have not won here in San Francisco since 2008. The likelihood of them ending that streak here is pretty strong, but the margin of victory the linesmakers are calling for is a tough ask.  Under HC Bruce Arians, the Cards have been "printing money" at the betting window (27-15 ATS overall), but this will be just the second time during this three-year tenure that they've been asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road!  Keeping QB Carson Palmer healthy now becomes the primary concern for this team moving forward, so I don't expect them to take the same "blood is in the water" approach they've had against other lesser opponents, here. 8* San Francisco

8* Charlotte (2:05 ET): There isn't too much turnover on a year-to-year basis when it comes to NBA playoff teams, but it certainly appears as if we may be "swapping out" Milwaukee for Charlotte in the Eastern Conference this season. These teams appear to be trending in very different directions so far as the Bucks have been one of the league's real disappointments at 6-10 SU while being outscored by a ghastly 8.2 points per game. Only two teams in the league have a worse YTD point differential on a per game basis and Bucks' fans will be unhappy to learn that those two are the Lakers & 76ers. This is a clear, but somewhat predictable, step back for a team that improved its win total by 26 games the year prior and covered over 55% of its games.

Meanwhile, Charlotte seems to be trending in the other direction. Though off a hard-fought loss to Cleveland, the Hornets had won four in a row prior to that and this will be their sixth straight time playing at home, so the schedule sets up well for them. (That is, until they have to host Golden State this week).  But what really makes this a bad matchup for Milwaukee is the fact the Hornets are the fifth most efficient offense in the league right now, averaging 104.5 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks, defensively, are the least efficient team in the league as they allow 109.5 points per 100 possessions. That's a full point per 100 possessions more than the next worst team and what's really frightening is that it's nearly six points more than what winless Philadelphia allows. 

Charlotte can still hold its head high even after a 95-90 loss to Cleveland Friday where they faltered down the stretch. The team scored 14 points in the fourth quarter (fewest in any 4Q this season) and shot just 5 for 25 from three-point range for the game, also a season worst. They should bounce back offensively here against a Bucks team that in its last four road games has allowed 119.2 PPG on 54 percent shooting overall, including 47.6 percent from three-point range. The Bucks have been blown out w/ tremendous regularity this season; their last five losses have all come by double digits, including a 24-pt loss at Orlando on Friday.  8* Charlotte

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET):  The Falcons had absolutely no business losing last week here at home against the Colts. They led 14-0 early and it should have been more as they failed to capitalize on two Colts turnovers. Nevertheless, they still led 21-7 late in the third quarter, but that was when their own turnover bug came back to bite them.  Matt Ryan threw two fourth quarter interceptions, one of them returned for the game-tying score, and Atlanta ended up losing 24-21 despite a 375-276 edge in total yards. Ryan and the Falcons really ought to be ashamed of themselves for a three-game losing skid to the Bucs, 49ers and Colts that has taken them back down to the edge of the NFC playoff race. They've actually now failed to cover six straight games, but I see that streak coming to an end here against an overrated Minnesota team.

Despite recent struggles, Atlanta still finds itself tied w/ the 10th best point differential in the league.  They've outscored teams by 36 points this year.  For the sake of comparison, Minnesota is +27 despite being one game better in the standings. It's easy to forget now, but the Falcons were once 5-0 SU and looked to be in a neck and neck race w/ Carolina for the NFC South title. The reason for the decline is pretty obvious and that's a complete failure to take care of the football by Ryan. In their first loss of the year (at New Orleans), Atlanta was -3 in TO margin. Against Tampa Bay, they were -4.  Last week brought four more turnovers.  As frustrating as that can be, it's an issue that can be corrected. Ryan is actually having a really good year statistically, averaging almost 300 passing YPG while completing over 65 percent of his passes.  That should be enough to overcome the loss of RB Devontae Freeman (concussion). In three of their four losses this year, the Falcons have outgained their opponents.

Minnesota has not been a good road team in recent years. They are just 5-15 SU the L3 seasons and that includes three straight wins, over Detroit, Chicago and Oakland, all teams w/ losing records.  The Vikings have also had some good fortune go their way this year as they are 3-1 SU in games decided by six points or fewer. I'm still not sold on the offense and I question how the team will respond after being beaten 30-13 at home by Green Bay last week. Over those same L3 seasons, they are 1-7 SU off a division loss, so history is not on their side. While the Vikings defense is noted for allowing just 18.4 PPG, the Falcons allow only 21.4 and have held six of their last seven opponents to 21 pts or less. Atlanta's last three losses have been by a combined seven points and I see them getting back on track here.  10* Atlanta

10* California (10:00 ET):  I can't understand why a superior Cal team isn't laying more points to a disappointing Arizona State squad (that just became bowl eligible LW w/ a win in Territorial Cup), but I'll gladly take advantage by laying the short number here.  ASU was destined for a fall this season after overachieving each of the L2 years under HC Todd Graham. They needed wins the L2 weeks, at home over Washington and Arizona, just to get to the coveted six and now that they're bowl eligible, I don't see much of an effort coming here after laying it all on the line in LW's rivalry game. Cal, who was stuck on 5 wins seemingly forever, got to 6 two weeks ago (beat Oregon St 54-24) and then last week actually outgained rival Stanford, 495-356, in a 35-22 road loss. I'll call for them to win big in what will be QB Jared Goff's final home game.

Arizona State is somewhat fortunate that they don't need to win this game for bowl eligibility.  Two weeks ago vs. Washington, they found themselves down 17-0 early, but came back to win 27-17 despite being -150 in total yards, thanks primarily to a +4 turnover margin.  Last week's 52-37 win was a little misleading in the sense that they returned TWO interceptions for touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Also, Arizona was w/o its starting QB and the Sun Devils' maligned defense still allowed 449 total yards.  It's odd that the Territorial Cup wasn't the regular season finale; the last time that happened was 2011 when the Sun Devils lost at home - to Cal - 47-38 as six-point favorites. Overall, the Sun Devils are just 2-8 SU the L10 meetings w/ the Bears. 

These teams haven't met since 2012, but this will be the best Cal team that ASU has faced in awhile.  The Bears, bowl eligible for the 1st time since 2011, have taken care of business when favored, winning all five of those games straight up. Their losses have been to Utah, UCLA, USC, Oregon and Stanford and four of those games were on the road.  Goff threw for nearly 400 yards LW vs. a good Stanford defense, so look for him to torch Arizona State here. The Sun Devils are just 1-4 SU/ATS as underdogs this year.  10* California

10* New Orleans (9:05 ET): Frequently, I mention how teams that find themselves playing in the second night of a back to back can be undervalued, particularly when they're the road team. We have an instance of that tonight in Utah as New Orleans, who was blown out last night by the Clippers, comes to town. Of interest to me is that this line opened at -6, but due to the Pelicans' Anthony Davis suffering an injury, it has moved nearly a full three points as of this morning.  While the loss of Davis is potentially huge for the Pelicans moving forward, I feel that the oddmakers have overreacted in this instance as the Jazz are a low-scoring team that probably shouldn't be laying this big of a number.  Take the points.

This has been a very disappointing season to say the least for New Orleans.  Last night's loss dropped them to 4-12 SU on the year and even w/ the Western Conference as a whole not being as strong this year, it's going to take one hell of a run for them to get back into playoff contention.  Defensively is where they've really struggled, giving up an average of 109.4 points per game, most in the league. Last night marked the third straight game giving up more than that average, something they were able to get away with when they had Davis and were able to sweep a home and home vs. Phoenix. But possibly playing w/o their superstar, defense will need to become a priority. Note that New Orleans had covered four in a row prior to last night's loss.

Utah got off to a pretty solid start this season, but their issue lies on the offensive end where they average only 95.1 PPG, which has them ahead of only winless Philadelphia league-wide. Therefore, they are not a good candidate to lay this many points with, even though defensively they allow just 93.6 PPG, good for third in the league.  They've scored 100+ pts in only two games all season.  There are injuries on the Jazz front as well as neither Rodney Hood nor Trey Burke are 100 percent. Before beating the Clippers on Wednesday, the Jazz had dropped five of seven.  I expect the Pelicans to hang around here, even w/o Davis, and to cover the number. 10* New Orleans

8* Over Vanderbilt/Tennessee (4:00 ET):  Obviously, the "big story" here is that Vandy has yet to go Over the total in a single game this year (0-10-1). In the last 12 seasons, there has not been a single FBS team not to go Over at least once in the regular season. The one push for the Commodores came against a FCS opponent, Austin Peay, which resulted in a 47-7 win. Other than that, they have not scored more than 21 points in any game this season. Last week saw them get shut out (25-0 by Texas A&M) for the second time in four games, but more crippling than the fact it was A&M's first shutout since '04 is that the loss cost the Commies any shot at bowl eligibility. Therefore, a defense that has kept them in so many games this year may not be at its best and that spells trouble against a Tennessee offense that can send this game Over the total by itself.  Take the Over.

Last week marked just the FOURTH time all season that the Vandy defense allowed more than 20 points.  That's really impressive, but what hasn't been impressive is the list of offenses they've faced this season.  The four best offenses they've faced (Georgia, Ole Miss, Houston and A&M) were the ones to all cross the 20-pt threshold and they averaged nearly 27 points per game.  Tennessee brings in an offense ranked 28th nationally in terms of efficiency, higher than all of those other teams, except Ole Miss (12th). The Vols average 32.6 points per game and I expect them to match that number here today. Note that two weeks ago, Vandy was fortunate to get away w/ allowing only 17 points to Kentucky as there were two goal-line stands. 

We will need probably 10+ points from Vandy here, which under any typical circumstance would be a "normal ask" for a team. But 10 PPG is how much they've average in road games this year and the win over Kentucky is the only time they've scored more than that average the L6 games! But while Tennessee has allowed just eight points total its last two games, that's not indicative of a defense that has allowed an average of 22.1 PPG in conference play. What we do know is that the Vols' offense has gone over 50 points three times this season. Also, let's not forget about special teams. UT has the best kick returner in the country, Evan Berry, who has scored three touchdowns and averages almost 40 yards per return. A score from him would be huge, though not necessarily "required" as I expect this one to sneak Over the total.  8* Over Vanderbilt/Tennessee

8* NC State (3:30 ET):  This is an interesting matchup. North Carolina, who is headed for the ACC Championship Game, clearly is capable of giving #1 Clemson a scare there. But up first is this road game w/ dangerous North Carolina State, a team that waxed them LY, 35-7 as six-point dogs in Chapel Hill. Betting for this rivalry matchup is what caught my eye as despite the vast majority of wagers coming in on UNC, the line has actually dropped. That's an indicator of some so-called "smart money" being on the dog and I can clearly see why. Not only did the Wolfpack whip the Tar Heels last year, this is such an obvious look ahead for UNC. I'm taking the points.

Coming off an 8-win campaign LY, this was expected to be HC Dave Doeren's best team in his three years here in Raleigh.  The season got off to a great 4-0 SU start (albeit at the expense of some pretty weak competition), but they've gone just 3-4 SU in ACC play and the wins and losses have followed a pretty predictable pattern as they've lost as underdogs to Va Tech, Clemson and Florida State. They did lose the conference opener as a 2.5-pt home favorite to Louisville (I had L'ville there!), but have won the other three games in which they were chalk. What LW's 42-29 final score against Syracuse won't tell you is that the Wolfpack led 42-16 late into the fourth quarter before a couple of late Orange scores (one by the defense!) resulted in a backdoor cover for the underdog. NC State finished w/ a decisive 511-292 edge in total yards for the game though and this is an offense that scored 41 pts against Clemson, plus 24 against a very good Boston College defense. Led by senior QB Jacoby Brissett, the Wolfpack are built to trade scores with UNC.

This will be the second straight week I'm taking the points against the Tar Heels. Last week, they held off an emotional Virginia Tech team (Frank Beamer's final home game), winning 30-27 in overtime, but did not cover. The win gave them the ACC Coastal as they remain unbeaten in conference play, however, all three road games have been decided by seven points or less. Also, as I mentioned in last week's analysis, this Tar Heel defense has largely been "bend, but don't break" under 1st year coordinator Gene Chizik. They've allowed an average of 24 first downs and over 400 yards per game on the road this season. It's obvious why UNC is favored, but they have lost six of the last eight meetings vs. the Wolfpack, so laying the points is a bad idea. 8* NC State

8* Minnesota (3:30 ET): During Jerry Kill's tenure (which came to an abrupt end mid-season for health reasons), there was only one Big 10 West team that his Golden Gophers never beat.  That was Wisconsin, who for 11 consecutive years has held "Paul Bunyan's axe." In fact, the Badgers have lost only twice in this rivalry game the L20 years, but both defeats did come here in Minnesota. Laying a short number w/ Wisky might seem tempting here, especially after they had THREE touchdowns called back in LW's painful 13-7 loss to Northwestern (as 12.5-pt home favorites) where they were -5 in turnover differential. But Minnesota is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season, including covers against Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa, all of whom are much better than the Badgers.  This is a real 'down year' in Madison and that combined w/ Minnesota needing a win for bowl eligibility have me taking the points.

As a favorite last week, the Gophers pulled out a late cover against Illinois w/ a late 75-yard TD run, giving them a somewhat misleading 32-23 victory over the Illini. But given how they'd just got done playing Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa in successive weeks, the win came across as pretty impressive to me. Consider that they got BOTH Michigan and Ohio State off byes and they had to travel to both Columbus and Iowa City. Yes, they were outgained (by 90 yds) by the Illini. But they'd outgained Michigan (461-296) only to be denied at the goal line on the final play and then were within one score in the final two minutes against Ohio State and Iowa. I'd say this team is better than its record and it would be a shame if they missed the postseason. Most impressive of all is an 11-0 ATS record in November the L3 seasons.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin has yet to really impress me this season.  Yes, until last week, their only two losses came at the hands of Alabama and Iowa, who have just one loss between them. But they were somewhat fortunate to win at both Nebraska and Maryland, both of whom have losing records. In fact, Paul Chryst's team has not beaten a single opponent w/ a winning record all year. The Badgers' offense has really struggled, especially when it comes to running the ball. The last two games have seen a wide receiver and a linebacker lead the team in rushing. Last week vs. Northwestern, the once vaunted rushing attack was held to -26 yards, a stunning figure, so let's be careful about labeling that result as a "bad beat." RB Corey Clement has been a massive disappointment, both on and off the field, and could be held out here for disciplinary reasons. This figures to be a low-scoring affair where points are at a premium. 8* Minnesota

8* Illinois (3:30 ET):  I talked about what happened last week with both Illinois and Northwestern a little bit in the Minnesota-Wisconsin writeup. To rehash, Fighting Illini backers suffered a pretty tough beat when Minnesota scored a 75-yard TD in the final minutes, giving the Gophers a 32-23 win and cover as 4.5-pt chalk.  Of note is that Illinois finished the game w/ pretty significant edges in both yards (433-343) and first downs (28-16). Meanwhile, Northwestern is off a little bit of a misleading 13-7 win over Wisconsin (as 12.5 pt dogs) as they were +5 in turnover margin and THREE potential Badgers' touchdowns were called back due to either review or penalty. While I stuck w/ Minnesota in the other game in spite of those results, I'll call for the Illini to upset N'western for a second straight year here as interim HC Bill Cubit likely gets the job on a permanent basis w/ a win here, which would also give his team bowl eligibility.  Take the points. 

Three weeks ago, the Fighting Illini stood at 4-4 SU and I took them as a small favorite at Purdue, calling it a "must win" if they wanted to become bowl eligible. They were unlikely to beat Ohio State (wound up playing them tough though!) and had to travel to Minnesota (already discussed).  Cubit's team ended up rewarding me w/ arguably their most complete effort of the season in West Lafayette, crushing the Boilermakers 48-14 w/ a 595-263 edge in total yards. They are now left w/ just one shot at gaining that elusive sixth win. As mentioned earlier, they did upset Northwestern LY, 47-33 as eight-point road dogs. There, BOTH teams were 5-6 SU and trying to become bowl eligible. This year, it's just Illinois and the game is at a neutral site (Soldier Field).  Just to touch on LW's game vs. Minnesota one more time, the Illini were actually +167 in total yards before giving up the big run at the end. I think their defense is better than the overall numbers show.

On the other hand, I'm not convinced that Northwestern is as good as its record or its lofty ranking.  Offensively, they average just 15.5 PPG outside of Evanston and while they've won four in a row, every win has been by seven points or less, two by only two points each. Five times this year, they've been held under 20 points.  Just 4-11 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons, the Wildcats are 4-8 ATS when off consecutive victories. There's also a decisive edge on special teams for Illinois here as N'western is one of the worst teams in the country in the "third phase of the game."  What N'western's defense did to Wisconsin's rushing attack LW was impressive, but note this week's opponent actually has a stronger ground game w/ Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Josh Ferguson. The underdog needs this one more and that trumps the revenge angle.  8* Illinois

10* Michigan (12:00 ET):  Much is being made over the fact that early money came in and moved Michigan to the role of favoritism for this matchup. The obvious comparison is to the Michigan State game earlier this year where the Wolverines (who I went *AGAINST* in that spot) lost outright (clearly "should have" won) but weren't going to cover. Normally, when a team was +13.5 on the "lookahead" line in the preseason and now essentially a pick 'em, it would send off alarm bells for me. But the fact is Michigan has been better than we thought they'd be while Ohio State, despite just the one loss, has clearly fallen short of expectations (they're 4-7 ATS).  I also find it interesting that while the Wolverines were being asked to lay nearly a full touchdown against Michigan State (stunning in retrospect!), they're only a pick 'em against the team Sparty just beat.  Even the opening number shows me that the books were scared to death of "Michigan money" coming in for this huge rivalry matchup and I have no problem taking the Maize and Blue in this price range as I was of the opinion "this was their year" to beat the Buckeyes anyway. 

This is a terrible spot for Ohio State. Last year's National Champs almost certainly will not get a shot to defend their title following last week's ugly 17-14 home loss to Sparty.  As painful as Michigan's loss was to MSU, Ohio State's performance against them was much worse. Michigan State was w/o starting QB Connor Cook last week in Columbus and still won the game.  Yes, like the Wolverines, the Buckeyes never trailed the Spartans until the final play was over.  But it basically took a "miracle" for Sparty to beat Michigan, even though they did have the edge in total yards. Ohio State was lucky to even be in the game last week. Their two scoring drives totaled all of 38 yards and both came about following a MSU turnover.  They had nine other drives in the game, which totaled fewer than 100 yards and just three first downs! It was arguably the most pathetic offensive showing from a supposed title contender in recent years. Six times they went three and out. Announcing that they'll "recommit" to RB Ezekiel Elliot sounds nice, but is just lip service. The fact is this offense has struggled all season and now is getting set to face the best defense it will have seen all year.

The two defenses here actually rate fairly comparably. But what comes as a surprise is that Michigan's offense is nine spots higher in terms of efficiency and has really come on in late, QB Jake Rudock in particular. The team's defensive exploits are well-known.  They rank 6th in the country in scoring (14.9 PPG allowed) and are second in total defense (263 yards per game allowed). Their two "bad" defensive efforts both came on the road; at home they are allowing just 9.5 PPG.  They are the better team here and probably deserve to be favored even more.  For 1st year HC Jim Harbaugh this is a chance to atone for the debacle at the end of the Michigan State game and no first year Michigan coach has lost to Ohio State w/ the exception of Rich Rodriguez.  Rivalries are cyclical and after Michigan dominated from the late 80's through the 90's, things have gone Ohio State's way this century (10-1 SU L11).  With Harbaugh in the fold, things will likely start to "even out" in the years that come and here I'll call for the Wolverines to hand the Buckeyes their worst loss ever under Urban Meyer.  10* Michigan

8* Kentucky (12:00 ET):  This is a game where the (home) underdog is seeking bowl eligibility and for me, that's a near automatic lean to taking the points. Once upon a time, things were looking pretty promising for Mark Stoops and Kentucky. Following a closer than expected 34-27 win over Eastern Kentucky on October 3rd, the Wildcats were 4-1 straight up and their lone loss came by just five points to Florida, a game many were calling for them to pull the upset. Given how the Gators have taken off this year, there's no shame in that defeat at all. Unfortunately though, with those first four victories all coming by eight points or less, there were warning signs that things might "go South" once UK hit the "teeth" of the SEC schedule. That, in fact, has happened as LW's 58-10 non-conference win over Charlotte snapped a five-game losing streak.  What that win did though was not only keep them bowl eligible, but give them the confidence needed to beat in-state rival Louisville here at home this week. Take the points.

Louisville really has nothing to play for here, save for "The Governor's Cup," which goes to the winner of this annual rivalry matchup. The Cardinals currently hold it and have held it for four consecutive seasons. But last year, in Papa John's Stadium, it was just a four-point game (44-40 final) and the lead changed hands four times in the fourth quarter alone. That was a similar situation w/ Kentucky needing a win to become bowl eligible, but while they lost, they did cover and at worst I see them doing the same again this year. Last year's L'ville team had Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, remember. This year's installment is not nearly as good and has nothing to play for after becoming bowl eligible two weeks ago.

  Last week saw the Cardinals lose a road game to Pitt, 45-34. They trailed by as many as 25 (in the first half) and were held to -1 rushing yards!  I think that latter number is significant because last year, L'ville was held to just 83 rush yds by this Kentucky defense. The Wildcats haven't been as stout this season, but then again neither has the L'ville defense, which gave up nearly 500 total yards last week and touchdowns on five consecutive 1H drives.  Bobby Petrino's QB situation remains in flux (no starter named) and when favored this season, his Cardinals are just 2-5 ATS (0-2 ATS on the road). Two weeks ago, UK outgained Vandy (on the road) in a four-point loss that saw two drives end on the goal line.  They atone for that here. 8* Kentucky

8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET):  The Thunder came up just a bucket shy of covering the number for me Wednesday night against the Nets (won by 11, laying -12.5), dropping to 1-6 ATS overall the L7 games.  But, for tonight, the number is more manageable and I'll call for them to blow out Detroit.  As you know, Kevin Durant is back in the fold and that makes OKC one of the very best teams in the league. Offensively, only the Warriors can claim to be better than the Thunder, who come into tonight averaging a whopping 109.8 points per game and they are 2nd in the league in efficiency. Detroit, off a rare 100+ point outburst in its last game, simply cannot match that kind of production w/ its roster, so I'll lay the points here.

The Pistons had dropped six of eight overall before pulling off a surprise upset of Miami Wednesday night. I know that the oddsmakers had them favored, but to me that was a surprise, especially the margin they won by.  Two nights after being blown out in Milwaukee, Detroit responded by beating the Heat 104-81, just the second time since November 8th that they topped 100 pts in a game.  However, I'm anticipating a massive dropoff in offensive production tonight.  The Pistons were 16 of 31 from three-point range against the Heat, a real shocker considering Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the league, but for the season they are just 31.1 percent from behind the arc.  Stan Van Gundy also gets the fewest points per game in the league from his bench. Wednesday also marked a season-best effort on the defensive end in terms of points allowed. Here, they are facing a far more offensively prolific foe.

Oklahoma City has scored 110+ points ten times this season. They are 7-3 SU w/ Durant in the lineup (3-3 w/o him) and despite them having struggled against the Eastern Conference (0-4 ATS) thus far, I see this shaping up to be an easy win.  They have won B2B games by double digits, including a blowout of a pretty good Utah team (111-89), on the road. That was Durant's return and in the two games since he's been back, he's averaged 28.5 PPG. My own power ratings say the spread here should be double digits. 8* Oklahoma City

8* Ohio State (7:30 ET):  Perhaps, before the game, these two coaching staffs can exchange thoughts on what it was like to be upset by TX-Arlington. The Mavericks first got Ohio State, in Columbus, exactly one week ago in 73-68 victory as 18.5-point dogs. Then, on Monday, they went to Memphis and beat the Tigers outright, 68-64 as 12.5-pt dogs (I was on that one!). Now, as we move to a neutral site (Miami, FL) both teams are desperate for a win in this Hall of Fame Challenge. Both squads check in at a disappointing 2-2 SU as Ohio State lost again Tuesday at home to Louisiana Tech. Memphis had lost earlier in the year, at home, to Oklahoma.  As I discussed in my analysis of TX-Arlington-Memphis, however, I'm really down on the Tigers under HC Josh Pastner and the immediate future is not looking good. Take OSU.

It hasn't been the best week in Columbus as both the football and basketball programs likely envisioned themselves being undefeated on Thanksgiving Day. In the case of Thad Matta's troops, they are young (seven freshmen!). But that still doesn't excuse B2B non-conference home losses, especially considering the Buckeyes had previously won 151 straight non-conference home games!  They actually never even led Louisiana Tech on Tuesday. The issue was guarding the three-point line as the Bulldogs went 10 of 25 from behind the arc. But the good news here is that Ohio State probably doesn't have to worry about a performance like that from Memphis, who so far is shooting a woeful 21.4% from three-point range.

Free-throw shooting, of all things, played a decisive role in OSU's loss to UT-Arlington. The Buckeyes were an awful 48 percent (13 for 27) from the charity stripe in that game while the Mavericks were an uncharacteristic 19 of 22 (68 percent first two games). As for Memphis, they were just flat out beaten up by the Mavs, who only shot 33% from the floor, yet still led comfortably the entire game (by 10 at half)! That's not a good sign for the Tigers and in my previous analysis I'd mentioned how Pastner has already had seven players transfer out of the program during his watch. I believe the Buckeyes are better suited to bounce back in this spot. Lay the short number. 8* Ohio State

10* Under Jets/Wild (4:05 ET): When it comes to giving up goals, Winnipeg has been one of the biggest offenders this season. Only their "neighbor" to the West, Calgary, is allowing more scoring on a per game basis.  I went against this team on Wednesday and they gave up five in a loss to a very good Capitals team. It was the fourth time in the last eight games that they allowed that many goals. However, what's surprising here is that result also snapped a four-game Under streak for the club. Here they travel across the border to Minnesota, whose had some issues keeping the puck out of their own net as well. Two early season matchups between these two flew Over the total, but not this one.  Take the Under.

Each of those first two meetings this year saw the losing team pull its starting goaltender. While we expected some regression from Wild goaltender Devan Dubnyk (career year last season), he's remained solid here on home ice w/ a .924 save percentage.  Getting to face a Winnipeg team averaging just 24.4 shots per game their L5 is good news. What the Wild need to shore up is their penalty kill, which ranks 29th overall in the league. Again, thankfully for the Wild, Winnipeg's power play ranks 27th.  When the total is 5.5 in Minnesota home games, the Under is 10-6 the L3 seasons including 1-0 this year. 

Michael Hutchinson looks like the likely netminder here for Winnipeg. He too will be facing an offense that hasn't been doing a great job at getting the puck on net this season (27.4 shots per game).  That average ranks third from the bottom in the league, ahead of only Detroit & New Jersey (Winnipeg ranks 23rd).  10* Under Jets/Wild

8* Oregon State (3:30 ET):  I'll start by coming out and freely admitting that perhaps no team in the country has been worse at covering spreads the L2 years than has Oregon State. They are an atrocious 4-19 ATS during that time, last year under Mike Riley and this year under Gary Andersen. But they are getting more than five touchdowns here, in a rivalry game, so I'll next tell you to "hold your nose" for this one and take the points. Yes, Oregon has been revitalized ever since the return of QB Vernon Adams Jr. They've won and covered five straight, but note they were either a dog or a favorite of three points or less every game during this time. As double-digit chalk, they are 0-4 ATS this season w/ two outright losses. This line has become inflated.

Again, I realize that the results for OSU have been downright ugly of late. They are coming off a 52-7 loss to Washington last week at home.  The week before that saw them get torched for 54 points in a 30-pt loss at Cal.  The team hasn't won since welcoming in San Jose State all the way back on September 19th.  The poor season has clearly not been lost on bettors, who have taken this number way up from the opening line of -30. That's a significant move as we've now crossed the five-touchdown threshold, which is a lot of points to be getting in a conference game, let alone in a rivalry matchup. Note that two years ago, as 23-point dogs, the Beavers took the Ducks down to the wire, losing only 36-35. Last year, Oregon had a lot to play for (playoff berth), which is not the case this year as they've been eliminated from Pac 12 North contention.

The issue with Oregon laying this many points is their leaky defense, which is permitting 37.2 points and 496 yards per game in conference play. Even after the 5-game SU/ATS win streak, the team is still just +29 YPG in Pac 12 play and +2.3 points per game!  There have been multiple games where they've won in spite of being outgained, one of them coming at Arizona State. That was a multi-OT affair where they allowed a ghastly 742 total yards.  Again, they have not covered this year as a DD favorite, losing outright to Utah and Washington State.  Oregon State is admittedly not a threat to win this game, but the points are too generous to pass up.  8* Oregon State

10* San Jose State (3:30 ET):  First off, congrats to all who purchased my NCAAF win total package (five teams) before the start of the season. Four of the five have already gone Over their projected win total & the fifth has a chance to do the same Saturday. San Jose State now can claim to be one of the four that already has thanks to last week's 42-23 beatdown of Hawaii. Now 5-6 SU for the season, the Spartans are in position to take the next leap in HC Ron Caragher's third season here, that being becoming bowl eligible. While not favored to do so here, the linesmakers certainly seem to be in a generous mood given the situation, especially since Boise State has absolutely nothing to play for here and should be in full letdown mode after having their MWC Championship Game dreams dashed last week w/ a second straight home loss to Air Force.  Take the points.

When I saw that SJSU was projected for only four wins this season, I immediately pounced all over the Over. Caragher's team was much better last year than its 3-9 SU record showed as they were actually third in the conference in terms of yards per game differential!  With 16 starters returning, 10 on offense, improvement seemed imminent. The key has been taking care of business when favored. With one exception (San Diego St), the Spartans have won and covered every time as chalk. That's not the role they are in here, granted, but that's okay as I feel they could very well be poised to beat Boise State for the first time - ever! Last week's game at Hawaii was even more of a blowout than the final score shows as SJSU led 42-7 with five minutes to go in the third quarter! From there, it was strictly "garbage time" scoring. That might adversely affect the Spartans' defensive numbers, but I'll point out that they still have one of the best pass defenses in the entire country (seriously!) in terms of yards per attempt. Even more promising is an offense that has really started to get going (500+ yds LW) behind QB Kenny Potter (5 TD's last week) and RB Tyler Ervin (over 1700 total yds & 15 TD's YTD). Don't discount the impact of special teams either; SJSU punter Michael Carrizosa is a Ruy Guy Finalist.

As for Boise State, they will not win the Mountain Division thanks to B2B outright losses on the blue turf to New Mexico and Air Force.  The New Mexico loss (were 31-pt favorites!) was stunning, but the Broncos really let me down last Friday w/ the 37-30 loss to the AFA where they were outgained 607-348 and lost despite a +4 edge in turnovers. That's not a good sign at all. Already bowl eligible and w/ nothing to play for here, I'll flat out question the motivation level for BSU in this spot.  They are just 1-4 ATS the L5 games, all as favorites, and their defense has gotten torched time after time for big plays the L2 games.  I swear this is not a misprint; those L2 games have seen the Broncos allow 24.2 and 31.0 yards per pass attempt!  An outright upset is a real possibility here and SJSU's last two losses have come by a total of four points, both games decided on the final play.  10* San Jose State

10* Nebraska (3:30 ET):  There will obviously be SOME who are a tad bit perplexed over this line as you have Iowa, unbeaten and in the top five of the CFP rankings, essentially as a pick 'em w/ 5-6 Nebraska. I, however, am not one of those people. In fact, and this won't make me many friends in Iowa City certainly, I'm not convinced that the Hawkeyes are even one of the Top 25 teams in America, let alone Top 5. To this point, they've played a very lackluster Big 10 schedule, avoiding all of the top four teams out of the stronger East Division.  Not to mention there have been several close calls along the way; namely five single-digit victories, three of those coming by five points or less. One could easily make the argument that this is their toughest game of the year (I'm about to!) as Nebraska is much better than its record shows. Take the points.

While Iowa has had nothing but good fortune go their way this season, Nebraska's luck has largely fallen on the opposite end of the spectrum. 1st year HC Mike Riley's tenure here in Lincoln got off to an inauspicious start as in the season opener, the Cornhuskers lost on a Hail Mary to BYU.  From there, it only got worse. There were four more losses by a FG or less endured. Those five losses in one score games are the most of any team in the entire country and in four of them they had a 4th quarter lead. Critics will obviously point towards the win over Michigan State (I had Nebraska there!) where the refs seemingly "gave them the game." But, nevertheless, the fact they were even able to hang w/ Sparty shows me they can certainly take care of business here against an inferior foe (when compared to MSU). Just last year, in Iowa City, they beat the Hawkeyes 37-34 as one-point dogs.  That was the third time in four years that this rivalry went "Big Red's" way.

Of course, Nebraska is not w/o motivation here. It's "Senior Day," yes, but even more importantly the team needs to win to become bowl eligible.  Since 1962, there have been only two Cornhuskers teams to finish a season w/ a losing record. Really, this is the first time all season that "the pressure is on" for Iowa as they have largely avoided the national spotlight until now. It's also just their second road game since Oct 24th. I think that a real key to this game is Nebraska's stout run defense, which allows just 109.8 YPG, top 10 in the country.  Iowa's offense is reliant on the run game and if it fails to get going, they will sputter here. Note that the Hawkeyes were actually (slightly) outgained LW (405-387) by Purdue despite winning the game 40-20.  Nebraska has excelled as an underdog the L3 seasons, going 9-3 ATS w/ SIX outright upsets. I haven't even mentioned yet how the 'Huskers are off a late season bye (only a handful of teams didn't play last week), which is huge. 10* Nebraska

10* Washington (3:30 ET):  This is another one of those lines that may "surprise some" as it's a 5-6 (straight up) squad favored over an 8-3 counterpart.  But advanced metrics illustrate that this line is more than justified and that the former has arguably been the stronger team this season despite its inferior record. Plus you have the fact that Washington is at home and going for bowl eligibility while Washington State's starting QB Luke Falk is dealing w/ a concussion and may not even play here.  That would be a tough blow for an offense that's almost entirely predicated on the pass (1st in FBS w/ 406.9 YPG, 127th in rushing).  The Apple Cup has gone the Huskies' way five of the last six years and Wazzu has not won here in Seattle since '07.  Lay the points. 

Whether it is Falk or backup QB Peyton Bender going for Mike Leach's Cougars, what they will have to deal with is the Pac 12's leading defense in terms of scoring, yards allowed (per game & per play) & in the red zone.  Here at home, UW is outscoring teams by over two touchdowns per game, yet somehow has gone just 3-3 SU. That is owed to two blowouts, one over a FCS opponent, but the other was a 49-3 win over Arizona.  Remember that this team went to LA and beat USC 17-12.  They have three losses by six points or less, however, plus they outgained Utah here and blew an early 17-point at Arizona State (ended up -4 in turnovers). Clearly, Chris Petersen's team is better than its record and I think we'll see that on Friday.  Not making a bowl in Petersen's second year here would be a pretty big embarrassment and a step back, even though I think the future is pretty bright here.

Obviously, what grabs your attention right off the bat w/ Washington State is the fact they come in on an 8-game ATS win streak, which I believe is the longest active streak in the nation. I also took them all the way back in Week 2, when they were off an embarrassing loss to FCS school Portland State (how shocking in retrospect!) and they went across the country to beat Rutgers.  You may even recall from my Pac 12 season preview that I tabbed the Cougs as a 'play on' team this year given they were coming off a 4-8 ATS campaign LY. But, the situation is not kind to them here, given their QB predicament and what their rival has hanging in the balance.  Their own defense is giving up 35 points and 488 yards per game on the road this season. Washington just put up 52 points last week in a dominating performance over Oregon State.  In their last road game, Wash St was outgained 554-426 in a shocking come from behind victory over UCLA. They easily could have lost two of their last three road games, all decided by seven points or less.  10* Washington

9* NY Rangers (1:05 ET):  I really missed hockey on Thanksgiving as I've been having a great season. So too are the Rangers, who at 16-4-2 find themselves atop the Metro & only Montreal (the Atlantic Division leader), who got off to such a great start, has a better goal differential.  But the Blueshirts are off a rare loss here, to Montreal ironically, but what they have going for them here is the fact they have not dropped B2B games since a three-game losing skid back in mid-October. Since that time, they have gone 13-2-1. While this is a road game and the host Bruins have won four straight, the home ice advantage doesn't seem particularly strong as Boston is just 4-6-1 at TD North Bank Garden this year.

This shapes up as a "strength on strength" type matchup as the Bruins rank third in the league in goals scored per game while the Rangers are 1st in goals allowed.  Boston is #1 on the power play, but the Rangers are #3 on the penalty kill.  However, going the other way on the ice is where the Rangers seem to have the edges.  They too can score, ranking 6th overall in goals per game and a respectable 14th w/ the man advantage.  Meanwhile, the Bruins are 24th in gpg allowed and a disastrous 27th on the penalty kill.  This is the first matchup of the season between these two.  While the home team won all three times last year, this time things are a bit more one-sided.

Boston has been beating some bad teams of late, namely Toronto (twice) and Detroit. So, let's pump the brakes a bit on this win streak of theirs.  The last two, while on the road, were both decided beyond regulation (one in OT and one in a shootout) and saw them get severely outshot. Atypically, their PK unit saved them against Toronto (6 for 6!) as they were outshot in that game, 42-29.  Last time on the ice, they were outshot 34-22 by Detroit and were less than two minutes away from losing until tying up the game.  Scoring three times on 22 shots is pretty hard to do and not a sustainable blueprint for success.  I look for Rangers' goaltender Henrik Lundqvist (.941 save percentage on the road!) to be the difference maker in this one.  9* NY Rangers

10* Over Bears/Packers (8:30 ET):  The last four times these long-standing rivals have met have all seen the combo of Green Bay & Over cash. All the way back in Week 1, the Packers struggled far more w/ the underdog Bears then you may remember.  It was a 31-23 final where they were outgained by Chicago (402-322) and actually trailed going into halftime. But that was in the Windy City and not Lambeau Field. So, despite division dogs of a TD or more often being a solid value, I'll resist the urge to take the points in this situation, especially because it's going to be an emotional night w/ Brett Favre's number being retired.  Typically, the Packers have been dominant here at home and considering what happened the last time they played here (outright loss to Detroit!), they should be in "full force" Thanksgiving night. Therefore, we turn to the total where both teams have been surprisingly rewarding Under bettors of late. But I look for that to change here. Take the Over.

Green Bay got back on track LW in Minnesota w/ a critical 30-13 victory that reclaimed first place in the NFC North. It was the offense's highest scoring output since a 38-28 win over Kansas City, which was all the way back in Wk 3, also a night game (Monday).  Yes, the receiving corps is depleted for Aaron Rodgers.  But that didn't stop him from throwing for 300+ yards in the two games prior to last week.  The Vikings defense that held him to 212 yds passing is a much stronger unit than the one he'll face here.  Chicago's defense has gradually improved under John Fox, but still allows 25.1 points per game. The fact remains this Packers offense has always been better at home, particularly in this primetime affairs. Incredibly, they have averaged 41 PPG their L5 night games here at Lambeau w/ Rodgers turning in a 19-0 TD-INT ratio! 

Chicago's offense, meanwhile, is better than you think.  Sure they were held to just 15 points last week, but they too faced a better defense (Denver) than what they'll see here. The week previous, on the road, saw the Bears explode for a season-high 37 points against a pretty good Rams defense. Had this team not had to turn to the now-released Jimmy Clausen early in the season (shutout in Seattle), the overall offensive numbers would look better. Matt Forte is coming back this week and he and Jeremy Langford are an excellent tandem out of the backfield.  Even better is that it's looking like WR Alshon Jeffery will be back as well. A depleted receiving corps really hurt Cutler LW vs. the Broncos.  I look for a high scoring game Thanksgiving night.  10* Over Bears/Packers

8* Central Florida (7:30 ET): Suffice to say, back in September I don't think ANYBODY (including those within the program) could have imagined that USF would be laying more than three touchdowns to any opponent this season. Really, as recently as early October, it looked to be just another long year in Tampa as Willie Taggart's team struggled out of the game, opening 1-3 SU w/ the usual offensive woes that had plagued the first two years of his tenure here. The Bulls scored 17 pts or less in each of their first three losses, at the time making it 21 out of 25 games (excluding games vs. FCS competition) that they'd been held to 20 points or less. But a change at quarterback has led to a dramatic change in offense and USF is now on a 6-1 SU/ATS run, scoring 22 or more in every victory.  While they did cover a 12-point spot (at home) vs. SMU earlier this season, this spread is a "whole different ballgame" and I'm taking the points.

No team wants to finish a season winless. That's what UCF is faced w/ here, however, as the Knights come in at 0-11 SU, 2-9 ATS. This disastrous campaign led to the mid-season retirement of long-time HC George O'Leary (12 years here), who had been coming off B2B conference titles and was two years removed from a Fiesta Bowl win over Baylor (team w/ Blake Bortles).  How the once mighty have fallen!  There were clear signs 'pointing down' before the season started, namely only nine returning starters, but still this team should have been more competitive throughout the year. After suffering two one-point losses in the first three games, the closest they have finished against any opponent is 14 pts.  Still though, this is a larger spread than what they faced against either Temple or Stanford and those games were on the road! I anticipate we'll get an inspired effort out of the underdog here, given that it's the final home game and they don't want to finish the year w/o a win.  QB Justin Holman is expected to play tonight.

Again, laying this kind of weight is "foreign territory" to USF as they've been favored only five times against an FBS opponent under Taggart and never by anything close to this number. As a matter of fact, never have the Bulls been asked to lay even two touchdowns, let alone more than three, to a FBS opponent under Taggart. Coming into the year, one would have though UCF would likely be the FAVORITE for this game, so there's been a massive shift in public perception. Rightly so, but I believe the adjustment has gone way too far. Both of USF's road wins this year have been by single digits.  I'm not buying this "bullish" of a market.  8* Central Florida

10* Dallas (4:30 ET): I'm going to take the bait here. Truth be told, my plan all along was to take the Cowboys in this spot. Obviously, my hope was that they'd be taking more points here at "Jerry World." But even though they're not, I'm of the opinion that "America's Team" is likely to win this one outright.  With QB Tony Romo back at the helm last week, they looked even better than I expected in a 24-10 pasting of the Dolphins. Remember, the Cowboys are unbeaten w/ Romo as the starter this season (3-0 SU!), so at this point you basically have to disregard that ugly seven-game losing streak w/o him. Five of those seven losses came by a TD or less, by the way, so it's not exactly like the team was terrible without him. Only the Patriots blew them out and in no other game were they a dog of more than 4 points. Therefore, with Romo, this line shouldn't be that shocking. Take the points.

Carolina is obviously still unbeaten (10-0 SU) and starting to garner attention as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Especially after they just destroyed Washington last week, 44-16 as 7.5-pt home chalk. But, for whatever reason, the Redskins are really awful on the road. So I will resist the temptation to put too much stock into that margin of victory. Interestingly, the Panthers' two biggest margins of victory this season have come in the last two games. In the first eight wins, they prevailed by eight points or less five times. So there's been some decent fortune go their way, as you might expect. That clearly can't be said for Dallas, who is 1-5 SU in such affairs. Those things have a funny way of "evening out" though and so it's long overdue for the Cowboys to pick up a "close victory." I see it being this game. 

The Dallas' defense has played shockingly well of late, holding three of the last four opponents to 14 points or less.  Now, with Romo back, the team can put together a strong finish to the season. They outgained Miami last week, 386-210, with a massive 22-9 edge in first downs.  Romo was not only sharp late in the game when his team needed him, but also in going deep as he went 5 for 9 w/ 2 TD's on passes of 15+ yards.  The key here will be not turning the ball over. Carolina has forced 13 TO's the L4 games and was +5 in turnover margin last week alone.  Since '03, unbeaten teams are just 16-24-1 ATS from Week 10 on. Also, remember that HC Jason Garrett has actually been one of the best underdog coaches in the league during his tenure, at least w/ Romo. Garrett is 13-7 ATS in that role the L3 years alone and that includes a 1-4 ATS mark w/o Romo this year. I'll call for the Cowboys to hand the Panthers their first loss of the season. 10* Dallas

8* Stanford (4:30 ET):  Well, I'm stepping out against Villanova yet again. Jay Wright's Wildcats are now an astounding 50-20 ATS since the start of the 2013-14 season and my feeling is that astounding record of success at the betting window HAS to start regressing sooner rather than later, right?  Twice previously I've stepped out against this team and paid for it. One was w/ Nebraska (+18), who lost 87-63. The next time was w/ a high-scoring East Tennessee State squad, who was getting 24.5 from the oddsmakers, but even that wasn't enough as they fell 86-51. In both instances, 'Nova was able to go on a massive first half run, 22-0 and 24-0, that essentially put the game out of reach before halftime.  But here, we're getting the Wildcats outside of Philly for the first time and that makes taking the points attractive.

Underdog Stanford is 2-2 SU, but 0-3 ATS and off B2B SU losses.  After B2B 93-pt efforts to open the season (against WI-Green Bay & Charleston Southern), the Cardinal fell at home to SMU (ranked team) by 15 (as 5.5-pt dogs).  Last time out wasn't any better as they lost by 17 at St. Mary's as a 3.5-pt dog.  This is a program that has won the NIT twice in the L4 years, plus made a run to the Sweet 16 in 2014, but they did lose three starters from LY that combined to average nearly 50 points per game. Defense, or rather lack of it, has been the issue during the two-game losing streak as their last two opponents have combined to shoot a ridiculous 56 percent from the field against them.  HC Johnny Dawkins called Sunday's loss to St. Mary's (where the team was outscored 45-24 after halftime) "as bad as I've ever seen us defensively." Improvement HAS to be expected. Note this game is at MSG, where Stanford has captured its two NIT Championships.

While Stanford's defense can only get better, Villanova probably can't get any better - on either end of the court! So far, they've outscored their four opponents by an average of 28.7 PPG, holding them to just 33.1 percent shooting overall! Stanford, for as much trouble as they've had the L2 games on the defensive end, is shooting above 50% for the year. Villanova too endured heavy losses from LY's team (three starters) and again, no team can continue to cover games at the rate they've been. I could keep going on, but really this is all about one team's ATS record being due to regress to the mean.  8* Stanford

8* Philadelphia (12:30 ET):  This is a golden opportunity to "buy low" on the 4-6 Eagles, who are off B2B embarrassing losses, first to Miami and then last week to Tampa Bay. Both came at home. Really, this is the first time the heat has been turned up on Eagles' HC Chip Kelly, whose offense is sputtering and personnel decisions being questioned. With a road game looming next week at New England, Philly is staring down a real possibility of being 4-8 and out of playoff contention, even in the relatively weak NFC East.  But fortunately, all that's being asked of them here is to win a game against the lowly Lions.  Detroit's last two games have been the exact opposite of Philadelphia, in the sense that they have won outright as an underdog both times. But let us not forget just how bad things had been here before the bye week and just how many Thanksgiving dinners this team has ruined. I'm on the Eagles here.

Factoring out defensive touchdowns, the Lions have scored more than 19 points in only one game all season! They are 25th in total offense and 29th in scoring (18.5 points per game). Even while taking them, I was shocked they were able to pull off the upset of Green Bay in Lambeau, an 18-16 final where the Lions were actually outgained 372-287. They had the edge in total yards on Sunday, 375-214, but still only 18 points in a win over the Raiders. I was shocked at what a good job the defense did at shutting down WR Amari Cooper. Still though, the offense scored only a single TD and the running game remains particularly pathetic. No team averages fewer yards per game on the ground (71.1 YPG). Last week marked just the second time this season that they went over 100 yds as a team. I don't see this team winning a third straight year on Thanksgiving as unlike the last two years, they're not in playoff contention.

Two weeks ago, the Eagles suffered one of the more preposterous losses of the entire season as they outgained Miami 436-289 (29-15 edge in first downs), but a confluence of events transpired to go against them. However, there were few excuses as to why the team played so poorly Sunday in a humiliating 45-17 loss to Tampa Bay, the nadir of the Kelly era. Mark Sanchez started and the offense turned it over four times, but that can be corrected.  Not just the turnovers, but it may be Sam Bradford under center on Turkey Day and not Sanchez. (Either way, this play stands!) But the real key is a surprisingly strong Philly defense which is allowing just 22.9 PPG despite last week's disaster. Again, the Eagles' season is hanging in the balance here; another loss and the calls for Kelly to get fired will only get louder. Detroit, despite the B2B wins, is already done for the year. 8* Philadelphia

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  Monday saw the T'wolves avoid the embarrassment of becoming the first team to lose to Philadelphia this season as a late fourth quarter rally gave them a 100-95 win here at home.  Unfortunately for myself and anyone else who might have had Minny, they didn't cover and that dropped them to 0-7 against the spread so far this season at the Target Center.  But it's "high time" that this team, who is much improved from last year, punches a winning ticket in the Twin Cities and I say tonight against unrested Atlanta is the spot. Normally, a team might be slightly undervalued playing in the 2nd night of a back to back, but not the Hawks here as they are off a 121-97 beatdown of Boston last night.  Take the points.

Minnesota actually hadn't even won a game straight up on its home floor this season until it beat the 76ers Monday. But they are a relatively surprising 6-8 SU for the year (16-66 SU last year) due to strong play on the road. It's quite odd to see a team w/ the kind of home-road dichotomy, especially one this young. A quick check of the stats reveals that defense has been the primary issue at home as the T'wolves are giving up an average of 105.7 points per game here. They could probably use an improvement in three-point shooting (30.7% overall) as well.  The good news is that when on a one-game winning streak, the team is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year! That includes an outright win at Atlanta (where they led by as many as 30 points!), so the underdog should not be intimidated here.

Atlanta comes into this game banged up as Kent Bazemore is still out and center Tiago Splitter may not play either.  Of course, PG Jeff Teague has been in and out of the lineup recently as well. Prior to last night's big win at home, the Hawks had failed to cover six of their previous seven contests. Duplicating Tuesday's ridiculously hot shooting (56.2% overall) is highly unlikely here, out on the road.  Minnesota's defense has gotten better its last two games (95.5 PPG allowed) and my own personal power ratings have this game as a pick 'em, indicating that taking any points is a luxury.  10* Minnesota

8* Oklahoma City (8:35 ET):  Kevin Durant is back and so too are the Thunder, who blew out a good Utah team on the road in KD's return Monday night, 111-89 as 2.5-pt dogs. Things should be considerably easier for OKC this evening as they welcome in a terrible Brooklyn team that rates as the third worst in the entire league despite a recent stretch where they've covered six of seven games. The Nets might be 3-1 ATS as double digit dogs so far this season, including taking Golden State to overtime, but they've also been beaten by double digits five different times this season and four of those have been out on the road.  Oklahoma City had failed to cover five in a row before Durant's return, but should cover easily here w/ him back tonight.

What made Monday's offensive output all the more impressive for OKC is that it came against a foe that was among the league-leaders, allowing only 92.3 PPG.  Brooklyn is not noted for any kind of defensive prowess; in fact they allow 105.6 PPG on the road and are 25th in terms of efficiency. It took their best shooting performance of the season (50.6 percent) to upend Boston (second game of a home & home) Sunday and in the two games prior, the Nets allowed an average of 118 PPG.  The Celtics shot 58.6% against them in the first game of the home and home.  Considering that the Thunder average an impressive 109.8 PPG (2nd most in the league, trailing only Golden State), I see them having no trouble scoring tonight.

The offensive numbers get even more impressive w/ Durant in the lineup as the team is averaging 114.3 PPG, which is right on par w/ the Warriors. They are #2 in offensive efficiency (again GSW #1) league-wide. Durant is shooting a career best 52.4 percent from the floor this season en route to a 28.0 PPG scoring average. With both he and Russell Westbrook on the floor, the team averages a phenomenal 117.5 points per 100 possessions.  Brooklyn had not won a game when allowing 100+ prior to Sunday and considering what they're likely to give up here, I see this one ending in a massive blowout for the home team. My own power ratings indicate that this number should be closer to -18! 8* Oklahoma City

10* Under Flyers/Islanders (7:35 ET):  The Isles have been somewhat of a disappointment this season, owning just a 10-8-3 record, but a +6 goal differential indicates that they should probably be a little better in terms of wins and losses. They just dropped two in a row, but both came against league-best Montreal in a home and home. The Habs scored nine goals against them in the two games, but a return home to Brooklyn should signal a return to form and as "easy" as it might seem to call for an Islanders win here, I instead have a stronger feeling on the Under as this should be a low-scoring game vs. the Flyers, who had been shut out in B2B games before beating Carolina (3-2) on Tuesday.

No team is averaging fewer goals per game than is Philadelphia at 1.8.  They've been shutout or held to one goal 10 times this season and that's despite nine of their games going past regulation including four of the last five and none of those have seen more than five total goals scored!  In fact, just five Flyers games this season have seen more than five total goals scored! As a result, the Under is 11-5-5 in all of their games this season.  Therefore, I'd recommend getting the number at 5.5 while "the getting's good" even though the juice is high (deservingly so!).  Philly has been doing a great job at putting the puck on net its L4 games (36.0 shots per game!), but 34 goals in 20 games tells the story and I don't see them solving Isles' goaltender Jaroslav Halak, who has a ridiculous .962 save percentage in three division games this year. 

New York's result vs. Montreal Sunday was a little misleading in the sense that it was a 2-2 game very late in the third period.  They didn't give up a single goal at even strength in the entire contest as three of the four allowed came from the Montreal power play (including one w/ just nine seconds remaining) and the other when the Canadiens were actually short-handed (should never happen!). There were just 50 total shots in the game. One area that the Isles have been struggling is on their own power play (1 for 20 L5 games) and Philadelphia has killed off 12 straight PP's. At the same time, I would expect a return to form from the Isles' own PK unit here.  10* Under Flyers/Islanders

5* Washington (7:05 ET): As I've written before, the Capitals are a top five team in the league right now. The only three teams w/ better YTD goal differentials are all in first place in their respective divisions; the Caps only "issue" is that they are in the Metro w/ the red hot Rangers (who I won w/ on Monday btw).  As for the Caps, they too won for me on Monday, but in a different manner as I had the Under in their 1-0 shutout of the Oilers here at home. We should expect more scoring from them tonight, however, considering they'd scored seven goals the previous game and are facing a Winnipeg club allowing an average of 3.4 goals per game on the road. Overall, the Jets rank 28th in the league in goals allowed. It's not that often that I lay this kind of juice, but doing so here is justifiable.

A big key to Washington's success is that they allow, on average, the second fewest number of shots per game in the entire league (25.9).  (Trailing Carolina, of all teams!). This obviously makes goalie Braden Holtby's job rather easy and he's responded w/ a .943 save percentage his L4 starts. He stopped all 33 shots he saw against Edmonton, a high number, including one incredible glove save. It was actually Holtby's first shutout of the season, but he does have a 1.42 goals against average his L7 starts, reflecting the kind of consistency he brings to the table. Holtby will be back between the pipes tonight against a Winnipeg team that has not played well on the road this season, including getting outscored 24-10 their last three away from home.

The Jets really let one get away from them on Monday, losing 4-1 to Colorado at home after giving up three third period goals. Keep in mind that's the same Avs club Washington just beat 7-3 here at home. Overall, Winnipeg has dropped seven of nine and they've been really roughed up a couple of times during that stretch, most notably a 7-0 loss at Nashville and 6-3 loss at Dallas.  That's the kind of caliber opponent they face here and the result could very well end up being similar. The Caps have taken care of business against teams w/ a losing record this season, winning eight of nine. 5* Washington

10* Duke (7:00 ET): Coach K & the Blue Devils return to Cameron Indoor tonight w/ little money in their pockets. Well, Coach K's wallet is probably "fat enough," but this isn't intended to be a critique of the NCAA. Rather, my intention is to point out how Duke has yet to cover a single spread this season. They did just win the 2K Classic in Madison Square Garden, beating VCU and Georgetown, but those victories came by a combined 10 points and they faced a five-point deficit at halftime vs. the Hoyas on Sunday. Still though, the B2B wins were a nice way to bounce back from last Tuesday's loss to Kentucky and now the Devils return home where they consistently win in blowout fashion. It's shocking to me that Yale is getting this much respect from the oddsmakers.  Lay the points.

Duke won its first two games of the season here at home by a total of 56 points over Siena and Bryant.  Obviously, the level of competition can be called into question there, but what can't is the program's 25-1 SU record as a home favorite of 12.5+ points the L3 seasons. In the -12.5 to -15 point range, they are on a 40-2 SU run here at home, going 25-16-1 ATS in those games (4-1 ATS L5). In all due respect to Yale, this is a pretty extreme drop in class from last week's slate of opponents as well. The win over G'town was actually more impressive than the final score shows as the Hoyas shot nearly 55 percent from the field and dominated in points in the paint. I wouldn't count on Yale owning such edges here. Duke has won 118 straight non-conference games at home, by the way.

Now, Yale did just take SMU (a ranked team) down to the wire, losing only 71-69 as 13.5-pt dogs. But as noted before, this is still a step up in class and thus despite the ATS win, the Bulldogs should not be getting the same amount of respect from the oddsmakers here. They are now just 4-45 SU as a road dog of 12.5 pts or more and playing their third consecutive road game in less than a week has to be taxing, even this early in the season. I imagine Duke scoring early and often in this one as SMU was able to shoot 50 percent against Yale on Sunday. The Blue Devils are 7-2 ATS after allowing 80+ points the previous game. 10* Duke

8* Golden State (10:35 ET):  This sets up to be the blowout of the year so far in NBA as you have the #1 ranked team in offensive efficiency against the team ranked 28th in defensive efficiency. I should not have to clarify "which is which." The Warriors, going for a NBA record 16-0 start to the season, should obviously be highly motivated tonight. They are already outscoring foes by 14.4 points per game this year and tonight face an opponent that is being outscored by 7.2 PPG (Western Conference worst). Not only are the Lakers awful defensively, but because of Kobe Bryant's woeful shooting, they are just as awful offensively. As a team, they are shooting 41.6 percent from the floor. I don't recommend laying a number this big very often (if ever!), but this should be a huge blowout.

Though that per game point differential is quite impressive for the Warriors (was +10.1 PPG last year), I was kind of shocked to learn that they have just TWO wins by 20 or more points all year. One was against Houston in the second game, the other was a 50-point blowout of Memphis that can obviously severely skew numbers w/ the sample size still being relatively small. However, as alluded to earlier, this will arguably their weakest opponent to date. They did host Brooklyn  10 days ago and were taken into overtime, but that was a Sunday evening affair that likely did not have their attention. With the national spotlight on here (TNT game) and a record at stake, we should be getting Golden State at its collective best and that's a level that no other team in the league can come close to matching right now. 

At the other end of the spectrum is the 2-11 Lakers.  They are 1-21 SU "all-time" (meaning as far as my database goes back!) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points, so let's concede the straight up result here right off the bat. LA has been a double-digit dog twice this year, to Miami and Phoenix, and failed to cover both times. They've lost three in a row, all by double digits, the last coming by 14 at home to a subpar Portland team that is dealing w/ replacing four starters from LY's squad.  This team is going nowhere fast as long as Kobe and his 33.3 shooting percentage continue to dominate the basketball.  8* Golden State

10* Over Ohio/Northern Illinois (7:30 ET):  In a College Football season where oddsmakers have not been shy about posting totals in the 60's and 70's (with good reason!), the O/U line here seems rather low, no?  We have seen this Ohio defense get routinely gashed throughout the season by the top teams in the MAC.  Heck, they even gave up 31 pts last week to a struggling Ball State team, not to mention over 400 total yards. That didn't matter though in terms of the final result as Frank Solich's Bobcats ended up rolling for 48 points and 607 total yards themselves! This week brings a far stiffer test though as they travel to DeKalb to face a Northern Illinois team trying to lock down yet another MAC Championship Game berth. I'm envisioning a shootout here as the Huskies can certainly move the ball, yet also haven't been shy about giving up points and yards themselves.  Take the Over.

Last week saw Northern Illinois win a big game over Western Michigan, 27-19 as three-point home chalk. That was the first Huskies' home game to stay Under the total all season (O/U = 59.5). What was strange though is that both teams seemingly moved the ball at will. NIU gained 447 total yards in the contest, but ended up w/ their 2nd lowest scoring output in a conference game all season (now 38.9 PPG & 489.9 YPG). What was strangest of all, however, is that the Huskies "got away" with allowing only 19 points despite the Broncos outgaining them w/ 492 total yards of offense.  They forced WMU to punt only twice in the entire game. There were six Broncos' drives of 11 or more plays; the "problem" was that two ended on downs, two resulted in only a field goal and on another they still had to punt. As mentioned above, this Ohio team can move the ball. They've averaged 532.3 YPG their last three contests and are averaging 432.6 YPG vs. MAC opponents.

The Over is 4-1 in Bobcats' road games this season as the team is allowing 34.0 PPG and 426.4 YPG in such affairs (6.1 yards per play!). That does not bode well here against a Northern Illinois offense that comes in averaging a whopping 46 PPG here in DeKalb, not to mention 572 yards per game! Since losing to Central Michigan, 29-19 on October 3rd, the Huskies have topped 40 points four times during a six-game win streak.  Ohio's defense was torched during a three-game losing streak to Western Michigan, Buffalo and Bowling Green, giving up 152 points.  If both teams hit their season averages in points, then this game will fly Over the total. What will keep Ohio in this contest is a Northern Illinois defense that is surprisingly giving up 447.4 YPG here at home. 10* Over Ohio/Northern Illinois

10* Under Pacers/Wizards (7:05 ET):  Owed in large part to playing at a much faster pace, Washington is the top Over team in the league this season at 7-2-1. However, their last game (97-95 at Detroit) stayed Under the total and the good news here is that their defense, which was nothing short of atrocious in the early going, has improved somewhat dramatically the L3 games. They held only one opponent below 99 points in their first seven games (Orlando to 87 in the season opener), but have now done so in B2B games including a season-best effort last Wednesday vs. Milwaukee (86 pts allowed). Now, in comes Indiana, who has allowed 85.5 PPG in its last two contests including their own blowout of the Bucks. The total seems too high here, particularly from the Pacers' perspective. Take the Under.

While Washington plays at the fastest pace among all Eastern Conference teams (101.9 possessions per game), Indiana is somewhat middle of the road. Their key to success lies on the defensive end as they currently rank third (only Miami and San Antonio better) in the entire league in terms of efficiency, holding opponents to just 95.7 points per 100 possessions. After opening the year a disappointing 0-3 straight up, the Pacers have allowed 100+ pts in a game only twice and the most they've given up is 103. The end result has been a 9-1 ATS run (8-2 SU) where in half the games, the opponent has been held under 90 points. The O/U line for tonight looks like it will close as the 2nd highest for any Indiana game this season, the highest being a matchup w/ Boston (207.0) on November 4th that ended up staying Under rather easily (100-98 final).

At the same time, Indiana has exploded for 235 combined pts its last two games. Look for that kind of production to curtail rather dramatically moving forward. The two teams the Pacers just blew out - Philadelphia & Milwaukee - rank 24th and 29th in defensive efficiency, respectively.  Washington may not be dramatically better (19th), but as mentioned above, there has been tremendous improvement on that end of the floor recently.  Both teams' benches have also been contributing a lot of late and I would expect that production to decrease in the short-term as well. While all four matchups between these two last year went Over, the highest O/U for any of those matchups was 193 pts. 10* Under Pacers/Wizards

8* Rhode Island (6:00 ET): The season got off to a somewhat inauspicious start for URI when projected leading scorer E.C. Matthews suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first half of the season opener. Playing w/o him for the first time, the Rams lost by three at home (as 1.5 pt favorites) to a pretty good Valparaiso team. It's not as if they played poorly though; they led at the half and it was a one-point game in the final 20 seconds. Missed free throws (correctable!) were actually the story as the Rams were 13 of 24 from the line while the Crusaders were 11 of 13. There was also an uncharacteristically poor defense effort from Rhode Island in the second half as they allowed Valpo to score 40 pts. That's almost the number they've allowed in their other two games!

The good news here is that URI bounced back Saturday w/ a dominating effort as they trounced Cleveland State 73-45 as 13-point chalk.  Now, the team moves on to Cancun to play TCU, a team coming off a 76-67 loss to South Dakota State - at home! As just referenced above, the Rams' defense has been mostly incredible this season.  They held Cleveland State (admittedly not a very good team) to just 27.3% shooting for the game (while shooting 63.4% themselves!). It was a wire to wire win w/ a 20-point halftime lead. In three of six halves this season, the Rams have given up fewer than 20 points. Opponents are shooting just 34.2 percent against them through three games, including 19.6% from three-point range. Turning up the defense is a great way to nullify the loss of your leading scorer. 

As for TCU, they did score 90 pts in B2B wins to open the season, but both games were against grossly overmatched foes. Saturday vs. South Dakota State (first D-I opponent), they shot only 33.3 percent from the floor and trailed by as many as 22 on their home floor. After falling behind 12-11 roughly seven minutes into the game, the Horned Frogs would never taste the lead again. Yes, they'd previously won 20 straight non-conference games, but the list of opponents there is not strong. Also, TCU is also down a couple of key players, including projected leading rebounder Kenrich Williams (for the season). Forward Chris Washburn is also out 2-4 wks w/ a finger injury.  I look for the favorite to roll in this one, thanks to its tremendous defense. 8* Rhode Island

8* UNLV (11:30 ET):  The Runnin' Rebels are unbeaten (3-0) and taking points Monday vs. UCLA (neutral site game), which is curious as I have them rated as the better team. The favored Bruins' season got off to quite the ominous start w/ an 84-81 home loss to Monmouth (as 15-point chalk).  This game takes place out on the Island, as part of the annual Maui Invitational and I expect the dog to be the far more inspired side as its a chance from the team from the Mountain West to knock off a team from the more heralded Pac 12. After surviving a scare from Cal Poly in the season opener (won 74-72 after leading by as many as 13), UNLV blew out B2B overmatched opponents in Vegas and should be ready to roll here. Take the points.

After scoring 80 points or more in their previous game, the Rebels are 11-1 against the spread the previous three seasons. That record improved w/ an 84-64 win over Southern Utah last week, which followed a 107-45 cakewalk over New Mexico Highlands (who?!) two days prior. After making 13 three-pointers against that cupcake, the Rebs were just 5 of 20 from distance against SUU, but better than 50 percent on two-point field goals. Patrick McCaw continues to carry the offensive load w/ 50 points in three games (24 vs. Southern Utah) and just wait until this Stephen Zimmerman, Jr (NBA prospect!) comes around.  The 7' freshman was a Top 50 recruit and now a projected lottery pick. He too has scored in double figures every game and more importantly is averaging 9.7 rebounds per game.

Meanwhile, the UCLA program is trending down. They too barely got by Cal Poly (despite shooting 50 percent from the field) and then turned in their best effort of the season, Thursday vs. Pepperdine, in a 81-67 win and cover. But that loss to Monmouth is indicative of where this team is at right now. Yes, the Bruins have held double digit leads in the second half of every game. But they don't play very good defense and you really don't hear about Steve Alford's team being a contender in the Pac 12 Conference. 8* UNLV

10* Phoenix (8:35 ET): I often argue that teams playing in the second night of a back to back, on the road, are typically undervalued.  Such is the case here w/ a Suns team that will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing performance last night in New Orleans where they lost 122-116 to the now 3-11 Pelicans. They'll certainly need a better defensive performance than that tonight as the visit a San Antonio team that leads the entire NBA in terms of defensive efficiency.  I was on the Spurs Saturday night in their 10-point victory over struggling Memphis, but I have the Suns currently rated higher than the Grizzlies and think this is an excellent opportunity to take the points. 

Lost in all the talk of Golden State's near record setting start is the fact that only five Western Conference teams currently find themselves above .500!  One is obviously San Antonio, but another is Phoenix, who is outscoring opponents by nearly four points per game this season, good for the fourth best per game differential in the Conference, trailing only the three "heavyweights" (Warriors, Spurs, Thunder). Since I successfully played against the Suns in their season opener (lost 111-95 at home to Dallas), they've been blown out only one time the rest of the season and that was in Oklahoma City back on November 8th.  That loss also marked the only time this season that the Suns have dropped B2B games.  

San Antonio also lost to New Orleans recently (Friday), but I came back w/ them the following night here at home and they took care of business against Memphis. While the Spurs' defensive numbers are very impressive (just 85.3 PPG allowed at home!), those will be put to the test tonight by a Phoenix offense that has now scored 230 points its last two games and plays at league's fastest pace (yes, even faster than Golden State).  LaMarcus Aldridge is currently listed as questionable for tonight's game (keep an eye on status) and despite being unbeaten at home, the best team that the Spurs have beaten here, by record, is 7-6 Charlotte. Phoenix has consistently been undervalued as an underdog (46-32 ATS) and on the road (54-30 ATS) the L3 seasons.  10* Phoenix

8* Under Bills/Patriots (8:25 ET):  The first matchup of the season between these two was quite the high-scoring affair as New England (as a pick 'em or underdog, depending on your line) went into Buffalo and prevailed 40-32. But that final score was somewhat misleading in the sense that the Pats led 37-13 heading into the fourth quarter. That loss dropped the Bills to 3-27 SU their L30 games vs. New England. They (Buffalo) were clearly overvalued heading into that Week 2 tilt and one could argue that they still are here, but rather than lay the points w/ an unbeaten team (risky!), I'm more interested in tonight's total. I don't think we'll see nearly the same amount of scoring as we did the first go around.  Take the Under.

Going w/ the Under is a little risky here in the sense that New England has scored at least 27 points in every game this season. They'd scored 30 or more six straight weeks before landing on exactly 27 each of the L2 games. However, remember that this is a banged up offense right now that's down several key weapons, most notably RB Dion Lewis (done for the year) and WR Julian Edelman (Brady's favorite target).  The offensive line is also not healthy. Last week's game vs. the Giants was fortunate to go Over the total as Tom Brady should have been intercepted on the final drive (dropped), which ultimately resulted in a GW FG.  The Bills defense, despite inferior numbers under Rex Ryan compared to last season, remains a formidable unit. They've allowed just 17 pts B2B weeks and have given up fewer than that three other times this season. 

New England is actually only 5-4 Over in all games this season and the key to the Under has been their defense. In three of the four games that stayed Under, they held their opponents to 10 points or less! Surprisingly, Belichick's defense is allowing only 18.8 points per game this season, fourth best in the entire league. While the Over is 7-2 the L9 meetings between these two, tonight's number is higher than any of the previous four. The Bills offense does not scare me at all; in fact they gained less than 300 total yds LW vs. the Jets and scored only one touchdown. I am expecting tonight to be one of their lowest scoring outputs of the entire year. 8* Under Bills/Patriots

10* UT-Arlington (8:30 ET): The underdog Mavericks certainly won't be intimidated tonight at the FedEx Forum in Memphis considering they are coming off a 73-68 upset of Ohio State (what an awful week in Columbus!). This team is a lethal 37-19 ATS as an underdog, including 20-11 ATS the L3 seasons. It wasn't exactly a "lucky" win Friday in Columbus either; UT-Arlington took the lead early in the second half and never gave it back, going up by as many as nine points.  While some might want to point toward the inevitable "letdown" spot here, I'm not buying it as this is a national TV game as well. I also place a tremendous importance on that Ohio State result as I have the Buckeyes rated as a significantly better squad compared to tonight's opponent, Memphis.  Take the points.

Both of Memphis' lined games thus far have seen the ATS result come down to the wire. They missed out on the cover by a single point in the opener, a 67-49 victory over Southern Miss.  Then, the Tigers failed as four-point home dogs to Oklahoma, losing 84-78. Two days later, they bounced back w/ an easy 83-65 win over Grambling (no line), but I think there are clear signs that this program is regressing under Josh Pastner, who had the unenviable task of following the legendary John Calipari here. Pastner has been unable to reel in the kind of talent that Coach Cal could with ease and the most damning number for him is "7" as is the number of players that have transferred out under his watch. 

Note that Memphis led Grambling by only four points at the half on Thursday.  The Tigers ended up shooting 48.1 percent for the game, easily their season-high, but that was to be expected against such a weak opponent. In their first two games, they were below 40 percent and that's troubling when being asked to lay this kind of weight.  They are a disastrous 22.2 percent from three-point range through three games. UT-Arlington has also struggled to shoot the ball this year (37.4 percent overall), but it didn't cost them in one hostile environment and any kind of improvement tonight should lead them to easily stay within the generous number.  10* TX-Arlington

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Laying this many points w/ the young T'wolves might seem a bit "dicey," not to mention "pricey," especially considering a poor 0-6 ATS home record to this point (7-0 ATS on the road!). But, the opponent is Philadelphia, who is now 0-14 SU and coming off a crushing loss Saturday in Miami where they blew a double digit lead. Any time you can get away w/ laying single digits against the Sixers, you ought to probably go for it as they are being outscored by a whopping 14.1 points per game.  Minnesota has slowed down dramatically (lost 6 of 7) after a surprisingly strong start, but should get back on track here.

Philadelphia won only 18 games last season. Two of them were at the expense of the Timberwolves and that ended up being the difference between these two in the standings as it was Minnesota finishing w/ the league's worst record (16-66 SU).  However, with B2B #1 overall draft picks on their roster (Andrew Wiggins, Karl Anthony-Towns), there is no denying that the T'wolves are improved this year. Yes, it's just the second time they've been favored this season and likely the most points they'll be asked to lay in a game all season. But this is a team that has managed to beat Chicago, Atlanta and Miami, all on the road, by nine or more points. After scoring only 86 points in a loss to Detroit on Friday, I anticipate a bounce back offensively for the T'wolves tonight. 

That bounce back starts w/ Kevin Martin now in the starting lineup.  A more natural boost should be expected here as well considering the team missed 10 of 13 three-point attempts vs. Detroit and was only 17 of 25 from the free throw line. Defensive improvement should also be expected as Philly is - by far - the worst offensive team in the league, averaging only 90.1 points per game on 41 percent shooting. Saturday's 91-point effort was actually the Sixers' highest output in the L6 games and it came on just 37.5% shooting.  I don't see them responding well to blowing what was, easily, their best opportunity to pick up a win all season and consider that there have been only three times this season that they have finished the game inside a 7-pt margin! Lay the points. 8* Minnesota

8* Miami (7:35 ET):  The Knicks are a surprising 8-6 SU and have covered 7 in a row (!) after Saturday's road win at Houston, 107-102.  Though the Rockets are probably the biggest disappointment in the league thus far, it was an impressive win nonetheless considering the fact the Knicks were playing the second game of a back to back, on the road. They are now a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games this season, including an outright win at Oklahoma City (no Durant) to start the current trip. But this is now their third road game in four nights and the toughest test to date as the Heat are playing for the seventh consecutive time at home and should be more than ready. Miami is 6-1 ATS the L7 meetings w/ New York. Lay the points.

I anticipate the Heat to come out strong here as we saw them fall behind winless Philadelphia their last time out and it took a huge finish to the game to avoid what would have been a very embarrassing loss.  They actually trailed Philly by as many 17 in the first half, which would be the Sixers' biggest lead in any game all season, and were still down by double digits midway through the fourth quarter. Then, their Eastern Conference leading defense (92.9 PPG allowed) kicked in and allowed just four points over the games' final seven minutes.  Defensively, it was a nice return to form after allowing 100+ pts in B2B games, something they'd previously done just one time all season. I see Miami limiting New York's three-point shooting, something that has been preposterously good (55.3 percent!), tonight. 

The Knicks' surprising amount of success in the early part of the season has obviously influenced this line and the result is an undervalued favorite.  My own personal power ratings suggest this line should be closer to -7. Again, the Knicks have covered seven straight overall and are 7-0 ATS on the road, streaks that are "due" to be broken.  With Miami 0-4 ATS its L4 overall, it does appear that we have reached the proverbial "tipping point" with these two teams. I keep coming back to the Heat's defense because it is #2 in the league in terms of efficiency (94.8 points per 100 possessions), about six points per game fewer than the Knicks. 8* Miami

9* NY Rangers (7:05 ET):  This is a really cheap price on the Rangers, at home. They've won 10 of 11 overall and last time out bounced back from their only loss during that span w/ a 5-4 OT win over the Florida Panthers. That was just the second time during the win streak that they were taken beyond regulation and while they were outshot drastically (43-31), it was the sixth time they'd scored 4+ goals. I'm not sure why the ML would be so low in this instance as it's not like Nashville comes in playing well. The Preds have been shut out in B2B games, both times in 4-0 fashion, first by Columbus, then Minnesota.  This would be their third road game in four nights, a terrible spot, and I cannot see them turning things around tonight at MSG.

The Rangers have lost just twice on home ice this year, and are a perfect 8-0 SU their L8 here at the Garden where they're now outscoring foes by roughly two goals per game. This is a team that ranks in the top five in both goals scored and allowed for the season, ranking #1 in the latter department at just 1.9 gpg.  The driving force behind that is obviously Lundqvist, who has turned in a remarkable .943 save percentage (tops in the league) thus far this season.  The former Vezina winner really "saved" the day on Saturday w/ 39 saves and two of the goals he gave up came when the team was down a man. But I wouldn't worry too much about that as the Rangers' penalty kill currently rates as the third best in the entire league (85.1 percent) and it was just the second time all season that they allowed that many goals in a game. 

Speaking of penalties, Nashville has taken their fair share recently, leaving them short-handed a remarkable 29 times the L8 games. They are 11-5-3 this season, but overall rate as a pretty mediocre club, especially on the road where they are allowing 3.0 goals per game. Again, they have been outscored 8-0 the L2 games.  They had a huge edge in shots on goal vs. Columbus Friday (39-18!), but then could manage only 23 Saturday in Minnesota.  They've allowed exactly four goals in four of their last five road games. Pekka Rinne has a poor .891 save percentage on the road and could give way to Carter Hutton tonight. Whomever is between the pipes, the result is likely to be the same. 9* NY Rangers

10* Under Oilers/Capitals (7:35 ET):  These teams already met once this season and the result was a 7-4 final (in Washington's favor) despite only 49 total shots on goal. Edmonton has been quite the Over team so far this season, 13-6-2 Over in all games to be exact, including a rare five-goal outburst their last time out. Washington hasn't exactly been shy about scoring goals either this season; they scored seven for a second time in a game this season Saturday here at home vs. Colorado.  But all this talk of goals surprisingly has me looking at the Under for Monday's rematch as I don't think it's possible for either side to duplicate its shooting percentage from the last meeting or its last game for that matter. Take the Under.

Edmonton has gone Over in five of its last six games. They are 28th in the league in goals allowed (3.2 per game), troubling I know, but have actually been a lot sounder defensively of late.  Over the L4 games, the Oilers are allowing an average of just 24 shots per game and just held New Jersey to 20 Friday night in a 5-1 win where I did cash the Over. But delving inside the boxscore reveals that was somewhat of a fortunate ticket to punch as the Oilers scored three times in the third period, the final time coming w/ just 2:30 remaining.  They generated only 27 shots on goal themselves, and you have to remember that they are still w/o Connor McDavid, likely their best offensive player.

Washington scored six times on just 17 shots against Edmonton goalie Anders Nilsson, which is hard to do, so mark them down for an automatic decrease in offensive production tonight.  I also find it hard to believe they will get the kind of offensive production we saw from the Caps' blue line Saturday as it contributed four of the team's seven goals.  In the previous 18 games, Washington had gotten just seven goals from its defensemen.  They of course still have Braden Holtby to lean on in net and he'll play better than he did the last time vs. Edmonton considering a .930 save percentage his L4 games. The Under is 4-1 this season in Capitals' home games when the total is set at 5.5.  10* Under Oilers/Capitals

9* New Jersey (10:05 ET): After Chicago tied the game 3-3 in the third period last night (thus ensuring me a winning Over bet), I stopped paying attention to Vancouver last night. So, imagine my surprise when I checked back and saw the Canucks ended up prevailing 6-3! Their final three goals all came in the final nine minutes and incredibly they were able to score six times despite only 20 shots for the entire game! Let us not forget that the Canucks had just gone 1-4-2 on a seven-game road trip and have just five wins total their last 17 games. Thus, I'm not entirely sure that the correct team is favored on the money line here and I cay w/ certainly that the visiting Devils are a great value.

Though at home, this is a tough spot for the Canucks having to play a second game in as many days.  They are just 13-18 SU in that role the last two-plus seasons, but more pertinent is that they are 0-5 this season when coming off a win by two more goals.  They have also dropped six of eight when taking on teams w/ winning records. New Jersey comes in at 10-8-1, which is surprising, as many projected them to finish near the bottom of the league in terms of points. The Devils are 0-2 so far in this trek through Western Canada, but fortunate for them is these games have been spread out. They had a day off to recover from a 5-1 loss to Edmonton (another game where I cashed the Over) and unlike many teams who have to do this trip in four days, New Jersey has had six to complete theirs.

The Devils do rank near the bottom of the league in number of shots per game, but they are top 10 in both penalty killing and goals allowed and have Corey Schneider back in net tonight.  The very subpar Keith Kincaid was between the pipes Friday and you saw the end result there.  Schneider has a .935 save percentage his L4 starts. Assuming New Jersey can do better than 20 shots here (how many they had vs. both Calgary and Edmonton), they should be just fine.  The Canucks are allowing an average of 32.8 shots per game their L5 and they can't be relying on the Sedins to register nine points like they had last night. The Devils beat Vancouver 4-3 earlier this month, by the way. 9* New Jersey

8* Arizona (8:30 ET):  You had to figure that following Cincinnati's shocking loss to Houston Monday night (I had the Texans!) that this line was going to start moving, which it has, but I still feel it is not nearly high enough.  While this is a matchup of my #2 and #3 ranked teams in the league right now, there is a sizable gap there.  Arizona, despite having lost one more game than Cincy, is definitely having the better season as they come into Sunday night w/ a +117 point differential and are an incredible +105 in yards per game compared to their opponents.  The Bengals, by comparison, are "just" +83 and +37.5 in those two metrics. The linesmakers have consistently been underrating Bruce Arians as in his three-year tenure as HC, he's gone 27-14 ATS here and that doesn't even include the ridiculous record when he served as the interim for Indianapolis in Andrew Luck's rookie season. Lay the points.

This will be the Cardinals' second straight week playing on Sunday Night Football and they'd obviously love a repeat of LW's result where they went into Seattle and beat their division nemesis 39-32 in a game that shouldn't have even been that close. Arizona jumped out to a shocking 19-0 advantage early, only to relinquish the lead, albeit temporarily. But still, they outgained the Seahawks 451-343 and had it not been for a defensive touchdown by Seattle, the game wouldn't have been in doubt at all.  This is a team that had large edges in total yards in both of their losses this season, one of those an early start in Pittsburgh. Take away that 25-13 loss (yes, I know it happened) and the Cards are averaging 36.1 points in their other eight games, going for 39 or more in half of them!  Maybe it is a "better" Andy Dalton this year for Cincinnati, but he surely didn't demonstrate that on MNF and the Bengals certainly don't possess the kind of firepower Arizona does.

"Same old Bengals" will be the narrative coming into this one after the team laid an egg against the Texans, losing 10-6.  That's a Houston team that has twice trailed by 40 points this year! All Cincy could manage against them was a pair of field goals and 256 total yards. They are 4-0 SU on the road, but have faced two backup QB's in those games and the other two were wins by six points or less. As I stated in my analysis last week, the Bengals have had some good fortune go their way these last two seasons as prior to the loss, they were 7-0-1 SU in one-score games. A 7-1-1 ATS record (that's after losing outright to Houston) is due to regress as well. 8* Arizona

10* Butler (7:30 ET): This is the Championship Game in the Puerto Rico tip-off. One thing these teams have in common is an ability to score.  Since opening their season by "doubling up" The Citadel, 144-71, Butler has beaten both Missouri State (93-59) and Temple (74-69) to get here.  Miami FL has gone over 90 points in three consecutive contests, including wins over Mississippi State (105-79) and Utah (90-66) here in Puerto Rico.  The Hurricanes were only a 1.5-pt favorite in their blowout win Frday (24 point margin!), so the market is high on them right now while at the same time possibly underrating the underdog Bulldogs, who failed to cover the number in the win over Temple. That makes this an excellent situation to take the points, in my opinion, and that's what I'm doing.

Butler actually trailed Temple by as many as 10 points Friday and shot a season-worst 36.4 percent from the field, including 5 of 21 from three-point range.  But four players still scored in double figures, including both members of the starting backcourt, and the team's defense ended up being the story. They held the Owls to just 38 percent and Chris Holtmann's team turned the ball over just five times. I fully anticipate the shooting to improve here, not just because of the fact the Bulldogs shot 62.2 percent from the field in their first two games, but also due to the fact Miami actually allowed Utah to shoot 50 percent its last time out.  Due in large part to those two great NCAA Tournament runs, Butler is 64-31 ATS at a neutral court setting.

Defense will also be a major story in determining the victor here and in that department, I give a big edge to Butler. Yes, Miami has been impressive offensively these first four games, but Butler is holding teams to just 32.8% overall shooting (22.8 percent from three-point range). I'm surprised that for a second straight game "The U" is a slight favorite to defeat a ranked opponent.  Through 3-0 ATS laying points this season, the Canes are just 16-22 ATS in that role the last two-plus seasons.  Butler has the third best assist to turnover ratio in the entire country. The better team is the one getting points here. 10* Butler

8* Boston (6:05 ET):  The Celtics are tied w/ Cleveland for the best point differential in the Eastern Conference right now at +7.2 per game, but unlike LeBron and the Cavaliers, Boston is typically not asked to lay a big number at the betting window. That consistently makes them a pretty solid value and sure enough they've covered six of their last eight, including a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road. All seven of the Celtics' wins this season have been by 13 points or greater, including Friday's beatdown of Brooklyn (120-95), which I was on, and now for the second game of the home and home set, the favorite again comes in being underrated. Six of the Nets losses this season have come by double digits.  Lay the points.

Friday's win by Boston saw them outscore Brooklyn 43-23 in the second quarter and for all intents and purposes, the game was over at that point. The Celtics shot a blistering 58.6 percent from the field, obviously a season-high for a game this season, compared to just 39.3 percent for the Nets. Anyone banking on the "revenge angle" needs to know that Boston has been a fantastic team on the road the L3 seasons (53-35 ATS) including an average margin of victory of 13.2 PPG this year.  This team has scored 100+ in each of its last five games. Brooklyn, meanwhile, has hit triple digits only four times all season.  There won't be any Marcus Smart tonight for the Celtics (bruised right knee), but Boston is deep enough and Brooklyn a weak enough opponent, for that not to really matter.  

So much of what I said in Friday's analysis still applies here.  The fast pace at which the Celtics play should continue to give the Nets all sorts of trouble. Boston forced 20 turnovers Friday and scored 20 points in transition. They continue to be near the top of the league in both categories. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Celtics are third in the league, giving up exactly 11 points fewer per 100 possessions compared to Brooklyn, who ranks 27th. This isn't nearly enough points for the underdog Nets, who have just two wins to their credit and they came at the expense of Houston (already fired its coach) and Atlanta (by two points). The Celtics have taken four of five meetings from the Nets since the start of last season, three of those wins coming by double digits. 8* Boston

10* Over Packers/Vikings (4:25 ET):  This is an honest-to-god, big-time showdown in the NFC North, a division you can no longer simply "concede" to Green Bay.  The Pack have lost three straight, their longest losing streak w/ Aaron Rodgers at the helm since his 1st year as a starter (2008).  Minnesota now finds itself in first place at 7-2, thanks to a five-game SU win streak, and they also have the distinction of being the league's best ATS team as well, at 8-1 (8-0 ATS L8!). They also are the league's top Under team (7-1-1, counting LW's game at Oakland as a 'push') and surprisingly not far behind them in that category is Green Bay, who has gone Under in six of its nine games. But all this talk of Unders has made this total much lower than it should be.  Take the Over.

Though you wouldn't know it by watching them recently, the Packers still have an explosive offense as long as Rodgers is at the helm. They average 24.3 PPG even after last week's 'dud' performance at home against Detroit (I was on the Lions!) where they gained much of their 372 total yards late in the game, after falling behind.  That's been the pattern the L2 wks, nevermind the disaster at Denver, but I just find it too hard to believe that this unit can play this poorly for any extended period of time. They are still averaging 5.7 yards per play for the season. It appears as if this O/U line will close as the lowest for any GB game so far this season. That's notable. The last two times a Green Bay O/U line closed below 45 pts, the Over went 2-0 & it hasn't happened since 2013. One of those two games was against the Vikings.

Honestly, if not for a leaky Packers run defense, I would consider taking them in this game. But because they are 24th in the league against the rush (116.2 YPG) while giving up 31 running plays of 10+ yards, it does not look like a favorable matchup w/ Adrian Peterson here.  The Vikings offense is coming off its second best game of the season, in terms of points (30) and they gained their most total yards in four weeks.  Peterson ran wild LW against the Raiders for 203 yards and is averaging 143.7 the L3 games. Yes, Minnesota's defense leads the league in scoring (17.1 PPG), but it's been a long time since they faced a QB that you would even consider Top 15 in the league, let alone in the top two like Rodgers is.  10* Over Packers/Vikings

8* San Diego (4:05 ET):  Kansas City is off a big win for me as my *10* Game of the Week as they went into Denver and destroyed Peyton Manning and the Broncos, winning 29-13 (led 29-0!) as seven-point underdogs.  But so much went right for them there (more on that in a second) and the result was so one-sided (I said in my analysis that an outright win was a strong possibility, but I even was stunned at how easy it came) that I can't help but think it has had too drastic of an impact on this week's line for a matchup w/ rested San Diego. In fact, the "look ahead" line (posted back in April) for this game had the Chargers favored by 2.5 points.  Going from a touchdown underdog to a road favorite in one week is a pretty big swing for the Chiefs, even when factoring in the opponents. Take the points here.

When making up a list of the league's unluckiest teams of 2015, make sure you have the Chargers written down. Philip Rivers and company are just 2-7 SU, but all but one of those losses (Minnesota in Wk 3) have come in one score games, including five straight entering their bye.  It's become almost painful to watch Rivers operate behind such a decimated offensive line, yet the Lightning Bolts still rank 4th in the league in total offense (413.9 YPG!).  They have actually outgained seven of nine opponents this season, one of only four teams in the league that can lay claim to such a distinction. The other three are a combined 21-6 straight up, including 9-0 Carolina and 7-2 Arizona.  Clearly, San Diego is much better than its record shows.  Note that during the current five-game losing skid, they have had the lead or been tied in the second half four times.  I think a bye week is just what this team needed and they should be ready to go for a divisional matchup where they have double revenge (lost both meetings w/ KC last year). 

Had it not been for Peyton Manning, you have to wonder how last week's game would have gone for the Chiefs.  The all-time great played arguably the worst game of his entire career and for Kansas City, the result was some incredible field position throughout the game.  Their average starting position for a drive was Denver's 48-yard line!  Talk of field position has to make the Chargers feel sick as they have had four punts downed inside their own five-yard line the L5 games alone!  What that field position did for the Chiefs last week was make it very simple to score. Considering how many field goals they wound up kicking (five), Alex Smith and the offense shouldn't be commended that much as they gained just over 300 total yards and 80 of those came on one touchdown play.  The better offensive team is getting points at home here and due to "break out."  8* San Diego

8* Baltimore (1:00 ET):  I think a pretty clear case could be laid out that the Ravens have been the "unluckiest" team in the league this year. They've already lost arguably their top play maker on both the offensive (WR Steve Smith) and defensive (DE Terrell Suggs) sides of the ball, for the rest of the season. More painful, however, has been a 2-7 SU record in one-score games. That's right, EVERY Ravens' game this season has been decided by eight points or fewer, the first time in NFL history a team has opened a season w/ nine consecutive games within that margin and Baltimore has won only two of them. Last week, probably, was the hardest one to swallow as an ill-timed facemask penalty led to an untimed down for Jacksonville, which resulted in a game winning field goal for the Jags. It was a game that Baltimore finished w/ a 397-258 edge in total yards, the fourth time in 2015 that they've outgained an opponent only to ultimately come up short on the scoreboard.

I believe it's "high time" for some breaks to start going the Ravens' way. As a virtual pick 'em this week at home vs. St. Louis, they seem like a great value. For almost the entirety of John Harbaugh's tenure here, this team has been great at M&T Bank Stadium. They're just 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) at home this year, but prior to that were a remarkable 47-11 SU.  Going back to the end of LY, the team is actually 0-7 ATS its L7 home games. Again, the worm is "due" to turn here, in my opinion. At 1-7-1, Baltimore has the league's worst overall ATS record. They've clearly taken a step back in 2015, but I do not believe they have fallen to the point where they shouldn't be conceding at least a field goal to a sub-.500 opponent, at home.  Some turnovers would be nice as well; since Wk 4 the defense has forced only one - last week! 

All that discussion was not intended to cast the Ravens in a negative light. Rather, it was to illustrate just how unlucky they have been. Fortunate for this week is they have an opponent that - I think - is conducive to a turnaround taking place.  That would be struggling St. Louis, who has made a change at QB from Nick Foles to Case Keenum. As ineffective as Foles was, I've never been able to make a "case" for Mr. Keenum, pardon the lousy pun. Keenum has just 10 career starts to his name, all w/ Houston, including an eight-game losing streak in 2013.  Don't expect much from him here. What the Rams will likely do is continue to lean heavily on rookie RB Todd Gurley, but he's slowed down the L2 games w/ only 136 yards on 34 carries (4.0 YPC) and the Rams' run-heavy approach actually plays right into the Ravens' only real defensive strength, that being stopping the run, where they are one of 10 teams currently allowing fewer than 100 YPG.  This Rams offense has gone just 6 for 30 on third down those L2 games and was dominated LW, at home, by Chicago in a 37-13 loss.  On the road, St. Louis is averaging only 15.5 points per game.  8* Baltimore

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET):  Despite five consecutive ATS losses, I still have the Falcons rated fairly high in my power rankings as they do own the 7th best point differential in the league.  I seem to be somewhat "alone" though in ranking them so highly as they are drawing very little support this week, despite being at home and facing a team w/ a backup QB that's not very good to begin with. Atlanta, like Indianapolis, is off a bye here and that should have given them ample time to regroup following B2B embarrassing outright loss to Tampa Bay and San Francisco.  While the dog has won outright the previous two times (DEN over GB, ARI over SEA) we've had two rested teams face off this NFL season, I think that in retrospect the wrong team was favored both times.  That's certainly not the case here. Lay the points. 

The Colts are simply not a very good team. Prior to upsetting Denver two weeks ago, a game I did take Indy mind you, they had not beaten a single foe outside of their very weak division.  They've been outscored by roughly three touchdowns this season, are giving up roughly 400 yards per game, and now are w/o their best player, QB Andrew Luck. Veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck is once again being called into duty and while some will want to point to his 2-0 SU record as a starter this year, be aware that those wins came against Houston and Jacksonville, by a combined 10 points, one of them (JAX) in OT.  Indianapolis was also outgained in both games, averaging just 324.5 YPG, or about 30 below their season average. I've said it many times before; outside of Luck, this Colts' roster is just not very impressive. 

Atlanta is 3-1 SU at home this season, outscoring teams by exactly eight points per game. I think it's a real "steal" to be getting them under a touchdown in this instance. The one home loss came three weeks ago against Tampa Bay, but the Falcons had a 496-290 edge in total yards in that game, only to be undone by a -4 turnover margin. Turnovers have plagued Matt Ryan and this offense during the five-game ATS slide, but I can only assume that was a real "point of emphasis" during the bye week. Ryan should have a big day throwing the ball, as the Indy defense is 5th worst in the league against the pass, plus I look for RB Devonta Freeman to get back on track here as well.  Coming off their bye, Atlanta has won and covered each of the past two seasons.  10* Atlanta

10* Philadelphia (1:00 ET):  Despite a 4-5 SU record and being w/o their starting QB, I believe the Eagles to still be a playoff contender, at least in the wide open NFC East. They have outscored their opponents by 28 points this season, the best margin in the division and 12th in the league overall.  Last week saw they suffer a truly awful result as they lost to Miami despite being +147 in total yards, not to mention nearly doubling up the Dolphins in the number of first downs. They led 16-3 after the first quarter and 16-13 when Sam Bradford got hurt & had to leave the game. From that point on, virtually nothing went right from Philadelphia's perspective, most notably Miami's GW TD pass which was deflected high in the air off defender Connor Barwin's helmet, only to somehow fall into the hands of WR Jarvis Landry.  Backup Mark Sanchez had a chance to win the game for the Eagles, but threw an INT in the end zone. 

Sanchez is the starter this week as Philly looks to avoid losing B2B games for the first time since opening the year 0-2. They are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS off their last three losses, albeit all of those coming w/ Bradford at the helm.   But they are at home here, against a relatively weak opponent, Tampa Bay. Sanchez, as long as he isn't turning the ball over, really is not any kind of significant downgrade from Bradford.  Remember that last season he came on for an injured Nick Foles and led the Eagles to a 5-4 SU record while completing 64.1 percent of his passes.  Chip Kelly can also rely on his defense, something we're not used to saying, as that unit is surrendering just 16.0 PPG here at home. 

The Bucs, a 10-6 winner for me last week over Dallas, have not posted B2B victories under Lovie Smith.  I actually had high hopes for this team coming into the year, but those pretty much went out the window when they dumped the season opener 42-14 to Tennessee, at home. Since then, things have gotten better, although it should be pointed out the offense scored only three points in 59 minutes against a subpar Dallas defense last week. They've scored just 28 points - total - the last two games, both of those against the NFC East.  The defense is allowing almost 400 YPG on the road this season.  Sanchez was put in a tough spot LW, getting "thrown into the fire" so to speak. A full week of preparation to be the starter makes all the difference in the world and I say lay the points w/ the Eagles.  10* Philadelphia

8* Over Blackhawks/Canucks (10:05 ET): Chicago started the season being very streaky w/ totals.  The opened by going Under in six of their first nine games w/ three pushes. They followed that w/ five consecutive Overs. Since then though, things have somewhat been "up and down" w/ 2-2-1 O/U mark the L5 games. They are coming off a somewhat shocking 2-1 loss at Calgary last night.  That snapped a three-game win streak where they had scored exactly four goals in every game. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them bounce back tonight against a Vancouver team that has lost four straight, not to mention seven of eight, giving up at least three goals in all of those games. Granted, all but one came out on the road, but that can't change the fact they've given up 12 goals total the L3 games.  Take the Over.

The Canucks certainly haven't had much difficulty generating scoring chances their last five games. They're averaging 33.2 shots per game their last five. The problem though has been that over the same stretch they're giving up 36.0!  That's a really high number.  Twice, they've allowed 40+. You would have to go back a long time to find the last Vancouver game that didn't feature at least five total goals. The date was October 18th to be exact. It's one of just three instances of a sub-5.0 goal game for the Canucks. The current streak is 14 straight games of at least 5.0 goals per game, making this O/U line a great value. I'm surprised to see that the Over is only 9-7 in Vancouver games this season, but that's because the majority of O/U lines for their games have been set at 5.5.

Similarly, Chicago hadn't seen a game w/ less than five total goals scored all month, until last night. There, they finished w/ a season-low 19 shots on goal in Calgary. It was their second straight OT game and in both they've given up 37 shots. Playing for the third time in four nights in Western Canada, tired legs could be an issue. Goaltender Corey Crawford has seen has save percentage take a hit over his L4 starts. Vancouver, who obviously has major goaltending issues right now, is 5-0 Over this season when facing a team w/ a winning record.  8* Over Blackhawks/Canucks

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Both the Spurs and Grizzlies played last night. San Antonio lost, 104-90 in a real shocker to New Orleans. Memphis won, in blowout fashion, over Houston. What those results have done for tonight, however, is cause the line to be significantly lower than it should be. Prior to last night, the Spurs had lost just one time since Opening Night and that came at the buzzer in Washington. Off their previous two losses this year, they have won by an average margin of 23.5 points per game (27 and 20 pts). The Grizzlies, while they have won four straight, still have a bad point differential (-5.0 PPG) despite now having a winning overall record. They've been blown out numerous times already (five double digit losses). Lay the points.

In all three of its losses this year, San Antonio has allowed 100+ points. They've allowed 100+ in only one of their wins. So, that's probably the key right there. Fortunately, Memphis comes in averaging just 95.8 PPG. They've been better of late (103.4 L5 games), but don't expect that here against a Spurs' defense which is permitting just 86 PPG here at home. All of San Antonio's losses this year have also come out on the road. Here at home, they are outscoring opponents, on average, by 16 points per game. It is a little concerning that LaMarcus Aldridge may not play here, but then again Memphis could be w/o Zach Randolph, so that would be a wash.  The Grizz are just 8-36 SU all-time here in the Alamo, including 1-3 both SU/ATS their last four visits.

Breaking down Memphis' current four-game win streak, they've found themselves in some pretty advantageous spots.  Last night's opponent, Houston, is a total mess. They also beat Oklahoma City w/o Kevin Durant. Portland and Minnesota aren't exactly contenders right now. As I've said before this year, it's a bit concerning that in three games this year against Cleveland and Golden State, the Grizz have lost by a combined 96 points. Mario Chalmers' arrival has coincided w/ the Grizzlies turnaround, but I don't see that lasting. Not only is San Antonio 24-14 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite, but they are 25-15 ATS in the second of back to backs. 8* San Antonio

10* SMU (8:00 ET):  Why in the world would anyone want to play this matchup? I'll tell you why. Poor SMU, who has failed to cover six of its last seven games (all SU losses), is playing its final home game and w/ next week's season finale coming at Memphis, this is the Mustangs' only legit shot left at a win. Note that that they are favored, something that has not been the case since a disastrous 48-45 loss to FCS James Madison back at the end of September, which begat this long losing skid. I know its become cliche, but SMU really is better than this 1-9 record of theirs. This week, in comes Tulane, a 3-7 SU team off a rare win.  The Green Wave have covered four straight, but two of those were as sizable underdogs. That streak comes to an end here.

Tulane's victory last week came at the expense of awful Army, 34-31 as three-point road underdogs.  The win came on a field goal w/ no time remaining after the Green Wave had blown a 28-7 first half lead.  One of their touchdowns came from the defense (fumble return), which leads us to a discussion of a very subpar offense, one that is averaging less than 300 yards per game and only 18.1 points. In seven of their 10 games, Tulane has scored 14 points or fewer.  The 34 pts scored against Army nearly matched what they had scored in the previous four games (37) - combined. On the road this season, the Green Wave are being outscored by an average of 27.2 points per game. Despite LW's result, this is not a team fit to cover as a short road underdog.  Off a win and with next week's finale at home, I wouldn't be surprised if motivation was somewhat lacking here.

SMU has a terrible defense (46.4 PPG allowed!) to match the Tulane offense, so that matchup will likely determine the outcome of this game. However, SMU can score, especially here at home where they average 31.8 points per game. They've taken on some of the big boys nationally, including both Baylor and TCU, and were relatively competitive. They also scored just 40 points against a good Temple defense two weeks ago, a game that was much closer than the final score indicates. The Ponies certainly don't want their season to end on an 11-game losing streak, so I expect a highly motivated effort in a Saturday night home game that honors the seniors. 10* SMU