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8* Chicago (1:00 ET):  Here's one that few will see coming.  Predictably, the Packers are receiving the vast majority of public support for this Week 1 matchup, but a spread this high for the first game? Remember that Green Bay is already w/o its top wide receiver Jordy Nelson (out for year) and Randall Cobb is less than 100 percent as well. The Bears have a new head coach (John Fox) and following the disastrous two-year tenure of Marc Trestman, he's not about to get blown out in his very first home game. I'm sure he's well aware of the fact that Green Bay has owned this rivalry (the NFL's oldest), including an 8-1 SU/ATS mark the past nine meetings. Unlike most, I do give Chicago a chance of pulling the upset here. Take the points.

With a full season of QB Aaron Rodgers under center, Green Bay predictably bounced back strong last year, going 12-4 and making it all the way to the NFC Championship Game, where they would suffer a crushing loss to Seattle. They enter 2015 probably as the co-favorites w/ the Seahawks to make the Super Bowl out of the NFC. While that's deserved, I think they will lose more games than is expected in the regular season. Last year, the team enjoyed a lot of good fortune, namely a 6-1 SU record (includes playoffs) in games decided by seven points or less & they were a league best +14 in the turnover department. It will be difficult to duplicate either mark here in '15. We've already seen them bit by the injury bug during the preseason. Might more "bad luck" be headed their way?

The Bears were huge disappointments last season, finishing 5-11 SU, including 2-6 at Soldier Field.  Fox has a history of turning defenses around his first year on the job (see Carolina, Denver) & LY's Bears were really bad on that side of the ball, so improvement is to be expected. The same can be said on offense where I expect new coordinator Adam Gase to get more out of QB Jay Cutler than Trestman did. If losing five straight times to the Packers here at home wasn't motivation enough, Packers HC McCarthy threw more "wood on the fire" when he basically guaranteed a blowout here. Sorry coach, your team still has a losing (SU) road record the L2 years and this is simply too many points to be laying in Week 1.  8* Chicago

8* San Jose State (10:15 ET): I absolutely love this one as I think we have two Mountain West programs moving in opposite directions for 2015.  I have a play on San Jose State Over 4.0 wins this year, so I was very happy to see them take care of business in their opener, a 43-13 beatdown of New Hampshire. While, typically, little can be derived from a big win over a FCS opponent, take note that New Hampshire is no slouch; the Wildcats were 12-2 SU last year and made it to the FCS semifinals. As I stated in the win total writeup for SJSU, many factors are pointing up in Ron Caragher's third year on the job, and I believe this team will be back in a bowl game. Take the points here and I give the underdog a great shot at the outright upset.

Air Force, meanwhile, was flying high last year w/ a 10-3 SU record that included a win over Boise State. But what's interesting to note is that while the Falcons were actually outgained in conference play (-20.1 YPG), San Jose State was +82.8 in yards per game, trailing only Boise State and San Diego State.  Thus, most signs are pointing down for the AFA in 2015. They started their season last week w/ a 63-7 win over Morgan State, who is not the same caliber of FCS foe that San Jose State faced. (It's sad when we have to make distinctions like that). There could also be a lookahead factor for Air Force here as they have a road game at Michigan State on deck. That won't be the case for San Jose State, who is seeking the program's first 2-0 start since 1987. No other FBS team that's been around that long can lay claim to such a distinction. 

SJSU has a league-high 16 returning starters, 10 of them on offense.  They finished w/ an incredible 707-186 edge in total yards LW vs. New Hampshire.  The defense allowed just 10 first downs for the game while the offense rolled up 285 yds rushing (5.4 YPC) and 422 yards passing (14.1 yards per attempt).  The team has an edge here in that they played last Thursday, giving them an extra two days to prepare as Air Force is playing w/ a "normal" week's rest. The Spartans haven't gotten many breaks the last two seasons, but are "due" for an upset or two this year and this could be the first. 8* San Jose State

10* Edmonton (9:30 ET):  They say "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."  Well, I consider myself to be a pretty sane person, but for the second week in a row I'm taking the Eskimos to snap their long losing streak to the rival Stampeders. Last week's 16-7 loss in Calgary (+4) marked the team's 12th consecutive loss in the rivalry, including LY's Western Division Final. I think if anyone is going insane in this situation, it has to be the Eskimos themselves. Well, now they're at home (where they're 4-1 and outscoring teams by an average of 15.4 points per game) and of importance is the fact they haven't dropped B2B games this season, going a perfect 3-0 ATS off their previous three losses.  They'll be supremely motivated here.

The Calgary defense was the story last week, holding Edmonton to only seven points and 203 total yards.  Both were season lows for the Eskimos. Meanwhile, for the Stamps, it was the third time in the last four games they held their opponent under 10 pts.  After an 0-6 ATS start, the reigning Grey Cup Champs have begun to resemble the previous year's form.  But it remains to be seen if they can turn in a similar performance on the road. They're allowing a full 4.5 more PPG on the road compared to at home and are just 2-2 straight up.  Eventually, this run has to end for Calgary over Edmonton and I think Saturday night at Commonwealth Stadium is the time and place. I have the two teams rated fairly evenly and cannot fathom how one-sided the rivalry has been.

Things will also be different this go-around for the Eskimos in terms of personnel.  Most notably, Mike Reilly is back at the pivot position after coming on in relief last week. Reilly is a major upgrade over James Franklin, who could not move the ball against the tough Stamps defense.  I look for him to be the difference maker here.  In front of Reilly will be a re-tooled offensive line, one that now has Chris Greaves, who was acquired in a trade w/ Winnipeg this week.  This is the week for the Eskimos. 10* Edmonton

9* Run Line Oakland (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Athletics +1.5.  Losing one run games has been the A's problem this year. It is why that they are 21 games below .500 (easily AL-worst) despite their run differential just going "into the red" earlier this week.  Their record in one-run games is a woeful is a MLB-worst 16-31, thus the RL seems like a solid value in this instance.  Texas won in shutout fashion last night, 4-0, with starter Colby Lewis taking a perfect game into the eighth inning. But tonight marks the highest they've been on the money line for a game all season. Good value going against the Rangers as they've actually been outscored by 33 runs this season!

Texas tacked on a pretty meaningless run in the seventh last night to complete the scoring and make it a 4-0 game. But what's interesting about that run is that going into the frame, the offense had failed to score in 23 of 24 innings, going back two games. A three-run first was all they needed Friday. But they can't count on pitching performances like the one Lewis gave them last night, especially from the inconsistent Yovani Gallardo.  Last time out marked the fourth time in six starts that Gallardo didn't allow a single run. But he still has a relatively high WHIP here at home and don't forget he came out of the All-Star Break by allowing 5 ER in three consecutive starts. The Rangers' offense is batting a collective .164 the last seven games.

Oakland took two of three from first place Houston, here at home, in its last series. But they've now lost B2B games and seven of their last nine. Still though, they can enter tonight's game w/ confidence knowing that Texas is just one game above .500 here at home, where it's been outscored for the season.  I'm just not a real believer in these Rangers, who have enjoyed the luck that the A's haven't had this year. Gallardo is 0-3 w/ a 5.32 ERA in four career starts vs. Oakland and hasn't lasted longer than six innings in any of his L9 starts. A's starter Sean Nolin looked good for four innings in his 2015 debut and was unlucky to give up three runs on only five hits. The A's do no worse than a one-run loss here. 9* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

10* Indiana (8:00 ET):  Sometimes, a coach finds himself in a "make or break year." Such is the case in Kevin Wilson's fifth year in Bloomington.  His Indiana teams have yet to make a bowl and the clock is certainly ticking on his tenure. Looking at this year's schedule, six wins could be hard to come by. The Hoosiers are in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State and Michigan. They do host Rutgers, but the bottom line is that a 4-0 sweep of the non-conference slate is probably a necessity. Things got off to a somewhat ominous start w/ a 48-47 win over FCS Southern Illinois last week. A loss there would have been nothing short of disastrous. But I have them bouncing back this week against a team off a much different kind of one-point victory, that being FIU.  Lay the points. 

Like I said, Florida International is off a much different kind of one-point victory last week. They came back to upset Central Florida on the road, 15-14 as 11-pt dogs.  While the result was impressive, I believe it will be difficult to duplicate two weeks in a row. They needed to block a 47-yard field goal attempt on the final play to preserve the win vs. UCF and were fortunate that the kick had to even be made from that distance, thanks to a Knights' penalty. FIU is off a 4-8 SU season where they were an underdog to every FBS opponent and going back further, they're just 1-20 SU vs. Power 5 schools on the road while getting outscored by an average of 30 points per game. Last week was just their 6th win in the L23 games.

Indiana, I feel, is going to simply have too much offense for the Golden Panthers this week. They put up nearly 600 yards of total offense in the opener. Sure, they let a FCS school put up 659 and needed to stop a 2-pt conversion on the final play, but I just don't think that FIU is capable of those kind of numbers. I like this Hoosiers' offense a lot coming into the year as they have QB Nate Sudfeld back after he missed the last six games of 2014 due to injury.  Also, they added RB Jordan Howard (a UAB transfer), who had almost 1600 yds rushing a year ago and looked solid in his IU debut w/ 145 yds on 20 carries.  Indiana had nine players suspended last week; eight will be back here.  Don't forget this team upset Missouri, on the road, last season! 10* Indiana

10* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET):  Minnesota went .500 in the month of August. They only month they were better than that was May (went 20-7).  Yet, here we are in September & the Twins  are in the thick of playoff contention, just one game back of Texas for the second Wild Card. They won last night, 6-2 over the White Sox, to improve their September record to 6-4. But I expect the home team to bounce back Saturday behind Jose Quintana, who turned in seven scoreless innings his last time out, at Kansas City. It was a 2-2 game heading into the eighth inning last night and Minnesota is just .500 off a win this season. They're also only 31-41 on the road and have been favored on the money line all of 23 times all year!

Twins starter Tommy Milone has certainly had Chicago's number this year, going 3-0 w/ a 0.87 ERA against them in 2015. But that doesn't mean the White Sox can't beat him.  Consider that Quintana, the White Sox starter, had posted a 1.81 ERA across seven starts vs. Minnesota before getting hammered for seven runs back on May 24th.  Milone has been sharp of late, going seven innings in B2B outings (both wins). That includes allowing no runs and only three hits vs. the White Sox (7-0 KW ratio) on September 2nd. But that was at Target Field. As I said earlier, the team is ten games below .500 on the road.  Coming into this series, the Twins were 9-2 vs. Chicago at home and just 3-3 against them on the road.

Since sweeping the Royals, in Kansas City, the White Sox have dropped three of four.  But the offense is still averaging 5.7 runs per game over its L7.  Meanwhile, Minnesota's lineup is batting a paltry .228 its last seven contests.  The White Sox have actually improved pretty dramatically in the second half of the season, going from the worst run differential in the American League to third worst, well clear of both Detroit & Seattle. They're roughly +30 in run differential since the All-Star Break. Minnesota, despite its winning record, has been outscored this year. Quintana has a 4-0 team start record his L4 starts. 10* Chi White Sox

8* East Carolina (7:00 ET):  Like SDSU-Cal, this is a game that's seen a major line move, in this case a dog of just over two touchdowns is nearly getting a full three. East Carolina, though off a lethargic 28-20 showing over FCS Towson, is no slouch. The Pirates not only whipped North Carolina last year (70-41), but went to Virginia Tech and won outright and nearly did the same to South Carolina. So they will not be intimidated having to go into "The Swamp" despite having lost key personnel from that 2014 squad (QB, top WR and offensive coordinator). This is now a lot of points for Florida to be laying and the Gators haven't exactly been beating up on a lot of opponents in recent years. A 61-13 win over lowly New Mexico State in the season opener meant next to nothing, especially now that Will Grier makes his 1st career start at QB. Take the points.

Note that this is actually a rematch from last year's Birmingham Bowl. On a neutral field, Florida could only win by eight and that was w/ an INT in the end zone w/ just over a minute to go in the game. East Carolina severely outgained the Gators in the game, 536-339.  While Florida's offense looked a lot better last week than it did under Will Muschamp, that was against a really bad opponent and mistakes were still apparent.  It remains to be seen how Grier performs in the starting position after splitting time LW w/ Treon Harris. The two are again expected to share snaps this week, which I never like as it disrupts the flow of the offense.  HC Jim McElwain did a fine job rebuilding Colorado State, but had a shaky debut here in Gainesville as he foolishly declined a penalty he should have accepted and the end result was NMSU converting on a fourth down.

East Carolina's "Air Raid" style offense is basically a "plug in and play" at the QB spot, so just like I wasn't worried w/ any kind of dropoff from Shane Cardin (all-time passing leader) to Kurt Benkert, I'm even less concerned now that Benkert is OFY (knee) and in steps Blake Kemp, who came off the bench to complete 29 of 37 pass attempts for 230 yards last week. Even more encouraging was the play of RB Chris Hairston, who gained a career-high 154 yds over land and scored all four of the team's touchdowns. The Pirates will move the ball in this game (440 yds LW) and score enough to stay well within the number. I think, again, people are putting the "cart before the horse" w/ Florida.  8* East Carolina

10* Oklahoma (6:00 ET):  If you're a regular subscriber, then you already know I've placed a bet on Oklahoma to make it to the second-ever College Football Playoff. Given TCU and Baylor's somewhat lethargic efforts in Week 1, I'm feeling even better about the Sooners' prospects in the Big 12, now all they have to do is win here and they'll very likely be 9-0 heading into Waco on November 14th. This is one of three battles of ranked teams on the Saturday slate and in this case, there was certainly no semblance of a letdown on either side in the respective openers. Oklahoma blew out Akron 41-3, and Tennessee handed me my only loss of the day as they poured it on late against Bowling Green in a 59-30 (-22) victory. I concede that the Vols definitely looked improved (at least on offense), but even at home, they'd need to be getting far more points for me to consider them here. The program is just 1-27 SU its L28 games vs. ranked foes.

There is definitely a lot of excitement coming out of Knoxville for the 2015 season, but just to rehash what I said last week, I don't think one dominant bowl win over Iowa should have resulted in this much optimism.  The offensive line still has a long way to go after allowing a SEC-high 43 sacks and is already down one starter. But the bigger concern has to be a defensive backfield that not only lost two starters in the last couple weeks, but also yielded a frightening 424 yards passing last week vs. Bowling Green. Therefore, I think it's certainly reasonable to expect a big night here from Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, who himself threw for 388 yards last week. Something to keep in mind is that LW the Sooners never even really got RB Samaje Perine going (Akron has a surprisingly good run defense). Here, I expect them to move the ball at will against a suspect Tennessee defense.

These teams met LY in Norman and it was OU coming out on top 34-10 as 20-pt favorites. I really don't think THAT much has changed in the last year, so the Vols definitely appear overvalued in the pick 'em range. Granted, last year's game came before the emergence of QB Joshua Dobbs, but I don't think that's enough to make up the discrepancy. Also, Perine had only nine carries himself in the 2014 meeting. Yes, I know Oklahoma has struggled against ranked teams in recent years. But those five losses last season were a bit misleading and facing a team from the SEC, I expect HC Bob Stoops to have his team ready. The Sooners are 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS last 9 non-conf games.  10* Oklahoma

8* Akron (6:00 ET):  Terry Bowden's Zips got blasted last week by Oklahoma, losing 41-3, but I expect them to be far more competitive this week in the home opener.  For starters, they beat Pittsburgh outright last year, on the road, 21-10 as a three-touchdown underdog! So, naturally, because of the revenge angle, we have an inflated line.  If that was Pitt's only issue here, then maybe I'd look past, but the reality of the matter is that the Panthers also lost their best player (RB James Conner) for the season to a knee injury in last week's closer than expected, 45-37 victory over Youngstown State. Giving up that many points to an FCS opponent is never a good sign and I see the team struggling w/o Conner. Take the points.

When Pat Narduzzi (former Michigan State DC) was hired on as the new head coach at Pitt, the idea would be that he would fix a broken Panthers defense (26.3 PPG allowed LY). Clearly, after watching last week, it's going to be a long process. They allowed YSU to gain over six yards per play on offense, forced zero turnovers and the 37 points allowed would have been the fourth most in any game last year. If you're a Pitt fan, obviously you point to the revenge angle here.  But Conner was bottled up in that game, the offense scored a season-low 10 points and he won't even be on the field. Backup Qadree Ollison, a freshman, turned heads in relief last week (207 yards), but the loss of Conner cannot be understated. He was the ACC's Offensive Player of the Year last year w/ 1800 yds rushing + 26 TD's. Those thinking that the Panthers can just plug any running back in and succeed need to take note that Akron held them to just 3.2 yards per carry in LY's upset.

Akron went just 3-10 ATS last year, so after failing to cover again last week, one would have to think we'll see them start to regress to the mean. This is a really big game for the program, which ranked dead last a year ago in home attendance. It is the first time since '09 hosting a Power 5 Conference opponent.  There really was nothing fluky about LY's upset as they outgained Pitt and really controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  Pitt is just 5-12 ATS the L3 seasons as a favorite, including 1-4 on the road.  8* Akron

8* San Diego State (5:00 ET): This is a game where the line has moved significantly. San Diego State has gone from roughly a one to two touchdown underdog and this is for two reasons. One, despite the lopsided final score of 37-3, they were not that impressive in a season opening win over FCS San Diego (just 305 total yards) as they needed three non-offensive scores to do so (2 def/1 ST).  Two, and I suspect this is the main reason, is a trendy Cal team putting up 73 points (against Grambling) in its season opener. When I see a line move such as this, my natural reaction is to think "overreaction" and that's the case here as SDSU is by no means a bad team (favorites to win MWC West Division) while I'm not entirely sold on Cal. Take the points.

Cal has not had a winning season since 2011, including a miserable 1-11 SU campaign in Sonny Dykes' first year here in Berkeley, two years ago. They jumped to 5-7 last season and w/ 17 returning starters back, most notably QB Jared Goff, expectations are fairly high entering 2015. But this is still a team that has not beaten an FBS foe by more than seven points since 2012 and was still pretty much dominated by the big boys of the Pac 12 last year, with the exception of an upset over lame duck Oregon State late last year. The win over Grambling means little to me. The previous two seasons saw the Bears go just 3-10 ATS here at home. Keep in mind that Goff will be facing a secondary here that had 5 INT's last week and allowed less than 200 total yards.  Goff will still put up nice numbers, but nowhere close to last week, and my bigger concern w/ Cal resides on the other side of the ball.

The Golden Bears' defense has given up an average of over 40 points per game the previous two seasons under Dykes.  That's atrocious. Even in their two Pac 12 victories LY, they gave up 56 and 59 pts.  The only other time the team was asked to lay double digits under Dykes to a FBS opponent was LY vs. Colorado and they needed double OT to pull out a three-point win. Like SDSU last week, the Bears also scored multiple defensive touchdowns.  The underdog Aztecs are a better team than you think; I expect junior RB Donnel Pumphrey (1898 yds, 20 TDs LY) to have a much better game this week. Cal is only 3-7 ATS the L10 times it has been favored, last week included.  8* San Diego State

8* Washington State (3:30 ET): Right now, I'm kind of ashamed to admit it, but I had Wazzu improving greatly in year four under HC Mike Leach.  So you can imagine my shock last Saturday when I saw that they lost outright to Portland State, an FCS school, 24-17 as 31-pt home favorites! In the days that followed, we've heard phrases thrown out around such as "most unlikely upset in years," and the result of that is many are going to abandon ship in Pullman after just one game. But I believe that to be a mistake. It's telling here that WSU is only a slight dog, on the road, even in the fact of overwhelming public support for Rutgers. There were some mitigating circumstances last week (more on that in a bit) that undid the Cougars & you can't forget that the Scarlet Knights have issues of their own that they're dealing with.  Take the points.

Following the loss to Portland State, many in the media have gone on the attack against Leach, saying "he throws too much."  This may be true, but clearly such a statement shows those people did not watch last Saturday's game. Mother nature played a major role in the 2H last week as WSU wound up throwing the ball on only 60 percent of its plays due to heavy rain. That was their second lowest percentage in a game during Leach's tenure and roughly 19 percent lower than their average.  Wazzu still finished w/ a significant edge in total yards mind you, 411-294, and led 10-0 at halftime (274-66 in yards). They also had a short field goal blocked after a 90+ yard drive. As embarrassing a defeat as that was, it is not unprecedented. Pac 12 rival Oregon State lost its 2013 season opener to Eastern Washington and bounced back the following week w/ a 33-14 over Hawaii. The same scenario held true for Kansas State that year as well.

Rutgers is not w/o its issues coming into the second game of the year.  Five arrested players were booted from the team shortly before the season opener and HC Kyle Flood is part of an ongoing academic investigation. Though they still beat Norfolk State 63-13, it was a 21-13 game at the half.  This secondary, which allowed 11 yards per attempt last week, can be had by a Washington State offense that will look to pass the ball at will. The Scarlet Knights' QB situation is also unsettled.  I realize that LW was a much different game once five players suspended for the 1H (not the same booted from the team) returned after halftime, but still, I expect this team to take a step back in 2015.  Last week aside, I feel Washington State is better this year, and oh by the way, this is a revenge spot for them after a 41-38 loss (in Seattle) as 8-pt favorites in LY's season opener. 8* Washington State

10* Houston (10:05 ET):  The first place Astros are in a little bit of trouble right now. Their lead in the American League West has been reduced to just 2.5 games & that's after they got a break yday w/ Texas losing 5-0 to Seattle.  A team they temporarily fell behind in the standings back in July is their next opponent, that being the Angels, who now reside in third place following a pretty miserable August (went 10-19 overall) and pedestrian (4-3) start to September.  This is arguably both teams' most important series of the season to date, so fortunately for Houston they have their #1 pitcher going in the opener, Dallas Keuchel, who is 4-0 his L5 starts vs. LA (3.24 ERA) and should again be able to take advantage of a weak lineup.

When I say that the Angels lineup is "weak," that might surprise you considering some of the names in that middle of that order. But despite the presence of both Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, the Halos rank 24th in all of MLB in runs scored and there are three other hitters all batting below .200. Even Trout, the reigning MVP, has not been immune as since the beginning of August he is batting a weak .225 w/ only 2 HR's and 41 strikeouts. Pujols is having a pretty unlucky season himself.  Note that tonight will be the third time in the last four games that the Angels are facing a possible Cy Young winner and they lost to both Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw as you'd expect. I don't expect them to fare any better vs. Keuchel.

Keuchel did allow 3 HR's in his last start, equaling the number he'd allowed in his previous 12 starts combined. But the team still got the win, 8-5 over Minnesota, as all three home runs were solo shots and that's all Keuchel gave up while at the same time striking out 12 batters over 8 IP.  He has allowed 3 ER or less and gone at least seven innings in six consecutive starts and has a 0.773 WHIP his last three. Only the Cubs' Jake Arrieta has more wins. While Keuchel should be sharper here compared to his last time out, I don't feel the same way about the Angels' Jered Weaver, who had allowed a total of 14 runs in B2B poor outings prior to a hard luck loss to Texas on Saturday. The Angels are 3-9 this year as a home underdog of +100 to +150.  10* Houston

8* Miami FL (8:00 ET):  Florida Atlantic, who saw the opening number greatly reduced before kickoff, took a brutal loss in its opener, losing to Tulsa 47-44 in OT despite a +4 turnover edge and 563 total yards of offense. They still covered (closed +4.5), but it's a game the Owls probably feel they should have won, considering a 10-point lead entering the 4th quarter. Now, they take a giant step up in class to face in-state foe Miami, who has no such problems in its season opener vs. Bethune-Cookman, a shameful bit of scheduling. It was a 45-0 win for "The U" and even on the road, I'm willing to call for another blowout here as they're without question far more talented and I think FAU is going to have a tough time picking itself up after LW's tough loss.

Miami's defense allowed all of 79 total yards last week and recorded its first shutout of the Al Golden era. The game was over by halftime when the Hurricanes were up 31-0. Obviously, this week will be tougher, but FAU is still a "bottom of the barrell" FBS team, probably in the bottom 20 according to most power ratings.  I like Miami to improve this year even w/ only 11 starters back as Golden's job is probably hanging in the balance. With Va Tech losing its starting QB, the door is now wide open in the ACC Coastal. They themselves have an experienced QB, Brad Kaaya, who threw for 173 yds and 2 TD's LW before leaving the game (blowout) in the 3rd quarter.  He's now thrown a TD pass in all 14 games in his career, a streak that is third best in the country right now.

I expect the 'Canes to move the ball at will in this game, against a FAU defense that yielded a ghastly 618 total yards of offense last week. Note that teams scoring 44 or more points LW went 45-1 SU, the Owls were "the one." Losing a game where you're up 10 entering the 4Q and have such a severe edge in turnovers can be pretty crushing & have a "carryover" effect. That's what I anticipate here.  The Miami offense scored 41 or more four times last year, including against its two weakest opponents. The FAU offense, meanwhile, won't come close to last week's production.  8* Miami FL

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET):  The Rays aren't quite dead yet when it comes to the Wild Card, but as I stated in Wednesday's analysis (I had them in their 8-0 win at Detroit!), they certainly seem to be on "life support." They're still three games below .500, but sending out ace Chris Archer tonight certainly seems to be a positive as does a visit from the last place Red Sox.  Boston has been playing better of late (won 5 of 6), but all those games were at home, including three vs. MLB-worst Philadelphia.  The Rays are off a nine-game road trip (went just 4-5), and know that winning this series is a must to keep their fleeting postseason dreams alive.  I like them to take Friday's series opener. 

Facing Wade Miley should be a good thing for the host team tonight.  As I also said Wednesday, the Rays have accounted quite well for themselves in 2015 in games vs. LH starters, now w/ a 25-16 record in such affairs.  Miley is having a subpar season, particularly on the road where his WHIP is 1.602.  He comes off a complete game victory vs. the Phillies, his first of 2015.  Considering he threw 110 pitches in that CG (up from 83 his prev start), fatigue could be a factor in tonight's start. Miley has faced Tampa Bay three times this season and never made it through seven innings. The Red Sox are 1-2 in those games as well.  Also consider that in his two previous starts to Saturday, Miley had allowed nine runs and 22 hits in just 12 2/3 IP. His TSR over his L11 starts is just 3-8.

Meanwhile, Archer deserves better than a 16-13 TSR this year as he owns a 2.93 ERA & 1.057 WHIP. Admittedly, three of his last five starts have been bad, but the other two both saw him allow zero runs.  In 15 of his 29 starts this season, Archer has allowed 1 or 0 ER and rarely does he go fewer than six innings.  Remember that Tampa Bay has given up the third fewest number of runs in the entire American League this year, trailing only division leaders Kansas City and Houston. Things would be looking a lot better for them if not for a woeful 2-12 record in extra inning games. The bottom line is Archer has a much better KW ratio (228-49) than does Miley (129-54) and he should lead his team to victory tonight. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Under Steelers/Patriots (8:30 ET): Finally, this game has arrived and we can stop talking about deflated footballs (though I'm sure you can expect to hear plenty of that during the course of the game from the commentators).  Looking at the actual matchup, we have two playoff teams from a year ago, one of them the defending Super Bowl champion, both w/ prolific offenses.  But these season openers tend not to be all that high-scoring and given Tom Brady's in flux status throughout the preseason, plus the fact the Steelers will be w/o bellcow RB Le'veon Bell, I don't see this game being as high scoring as expected. Note that none of the L10 meetings between these two teams had seen an O/U line higher than this one. Take the Under.

If you were smart enough to be the Patriots when Brady's status was in doubt (line was -2.5), then allow me to "tip my cap" in your direction. But as much as the public expectation is for New England "to roll" here, I'm not quite as convinced. Brady spent about as much time in the courtroom as he did the practice field over the course of the summer and I would expect his rhythm to be off somewhat entering the season. Much will be made of Brady's dominance of the Steelers here in Foxborough, but I remain unconvinced that we'll see the same dominant Patriots offense that we're accustomed to seeing here. Brady is on the downside of his career and will be w/o at least one key weapon, that being WR Brandon LaFell, not to mention I'm not sure who the starting RB on this team will be. Like the Steelers, they will be w/o their starting center as well.

Speaking of being w/o key personnel, that is the story here for the Steelers, who won't have Bell, WR Martavis Bryant or C Maurkice Pouncey. Thus, an offense that was #2 in the league last year won't be operating anywhere near full strength tonight. Quietly, New England's defense allowed an average of just 17.2 points per game last season here at home.  Interestingly, the three games Pittsburgh played on turf last season were all pretty low scoring (42.6 PPG), particularly in the first half (19 PPG). I look for a relatively low scoring season opener. 8* Under Steelers/Patriots

10* Western Kentucky (8:00 ET):  A number of factors have conspired to "flip the line" here as WKU is now a home dog for the Conference USA opener against Louisiana Tech. One is, obviously, the respective performances of the two teams last week. While the Hilltoppers were quite sluggish and fortunate to come away w/ a 14-12 win at Vandy (outgained 393-247), Louisiana Tech rolled to a 62-15 win over a FCS opponent, Southern. Also, WKU suffered its worst loss last year at the hands of La Tech w/ the Bulldogs winning 59-10 in Ruston, holding the Hilltoppers to their lowest scoring output of 2014. However, all that being said, I'm going to disagree w/ the line move here as I feel we now have a great value on the home team.

I think that most would consider these teams to be #2 and #3 in the C-USA pecking order, behind only league favorite Marshall. Western Kentucky, of course, actually beat the Thundering Herd last season (only team to do so) in a wild 67-66 affair in Huntington. The following week (C-USA Champ Game), it should be pointed out that La Tech lost by a field goal there. WKU is the first team in major college football history to return both a 4,500+ yard passer (Brandon Doughty) and a 1,500+ yd rusher (Leon Allen). So last week's minimal offensive output was surprising (team averaged 44.4 PPG LY) and I think it's interesting that we're now poking holes in a road win over a SEC opponent, even if that opponent was Vandy.

WKU has not lost since LY's matchup w/ La Tech (six straight wins). They are 16-3 SU in home openers and went 5-1 SU at Smith Stadium in 2014, losing only to UAB of all teams. While the Hilltoppers will be motivated by revenge, might the Bulldogs be looking past this game towards a big showdown against a Power 5 school next week (Kansas State)?  I feel that little, if anything, can be derived from last week's win against overmatched Southern. What I do know is La Tech has lost 16 of its last 18 road openers and they're playing on a short week. The Hilltoppers' defense certainly looks to be improved from a season ago and I highly doubt we'll see an offense as prolific as this one get shutout for 44 minutes again. 10* Western Kentucky

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  The National League Central is very likely to send three teams to the playoffs this year. But, surprisingly, it's been "the other two" that have given the 83-55 Pirates the most trouble this season. Were it not for a somewhat perplexing 12-19 combined record vs. Cincinnati and Milwaukee, you'd have to think that the Bucs would be in a virtual dead heat w/ St. Louis for first place. On the bright side, they did just take two of three from the Reds in Cincy to start the week, so now maybe is the time when they exorcise some of the past demons against the Brewers, who actually swept them earlier this month at Miller Park. I believe revenge will be Pittsburgh's tonight though as they continue their playoff push.

The Pirates struggles w/ the Brew Crew are really pretty inexplicable when you think about it. Miwaukee is not a good team at all, as is evident by the fact they just dropped two of three in Miami. They're currently 22.5 games back of the Pirates in the standings as well.  Yet, they somehow have swept them twice this year and beaten them six straight times. But all of those games took place at Miller Park. They have a losing record here at PNC Park (2-4) and have generally been a pretty bad road team most of the season (28-39 overall). The offense didn't do much of anything yday, managing only two runs and four hits. Interestingly, this will be the first time starter Wily Peralta has even faced the Pirates in 2015.

Pittsburgh will hand the baseball to AJ Burnett, who is making his first start in six weeks. Elbow inflammation really seemed to bother him at the end of July, but overall his numbers remain pretty solid, most notably a 2.11 ERA in ten home starts. While winless in his L6 starts vs. Milwaukee, Burnett's ERA is 3.10 and he allowed just one run in seven innings against them back in June for a hard-luck loss. Like his team, he's due for a win against this particular opponent.  This just seems like a really cheap price on a team that's won over two-thirds of its home games this season, so I say take advantage now before we potentially start seeing higher lines later on in the series.  8* Pittsburgh

8* San Diego (3:40 ET):  It's a quick turnaround from last night & it's "Getaway Day" for Colorado, who was beaten 11-4  on Wednesday. I believe this is actually a make-up game, given the rotation numbers.  Regardless, it's a bad spot for the road team & the Padres have had little trouble w/ the woeful Rockies this season, taking 11 of the 15 head-to-head matchups, including two of three this week. Colorado is now just 4-17 its L21 games at Petco Park and I seriously doubt that motivation will high this afternoon given the kind of season the club has had to endure. Meanwhile, San Diego has a chance to get back to .500, a place they haven't been in a very long time (June 13th to be exact).

It probably would be incorrect to say that the Padres have been playing "well" of late, but yday was their second highest hit total of 2015 (18). Like I said earlier, their one constant has been beating up on division rival Colorado, as they've outscored them by 35 runs in winning 11 of the 15 games. That includes seven of eight here at Petco Park.  Success against the Rockies is something that's shared by today's starter Tyson Ross, who is 2-1 (TSR) against them in 2015, including a win at Coors Field last month where he allowed just 2 ER on six hits over six innings of work. Ross, whose ERA is as low as its been in some time, has been pretty sharp of late. Saturday vs. the Dodgers, he allowed only one run and five hits in 6 IP. That followed seven innings of shutout, three-hit ball against Texas. Overall, the team has won 7 of his L10 starts. Ross hasn't allowed more than four runs in any start this season & has been at 3 ER or less 26 times!

Colorado is not having a good season obviously. Their woeful run differential (-107) is matched only by the Braves and Phillies. They are just 5-10 this season after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Their 732 runs allowed are the most in the majors.  Starter Jorge De La Rosa has actually been a bright spot in the rotation, but he has an 0-3 TSR this year vs. the Padres and hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any of those three starts. 8* San Diego

10* Toronto (7:10 ET):  I had no problem backing the Blue Jays Tuesday and have even less of an issue coming back w/ them again here as they look to finish off the last place Red Sox. Yesterday's results have Toronto now 1.5 games up on the second place Yankees in the AL East, but make no mistake about it sports fans, this is easily the best team in the American League.  If you don't believe me, just take a look at the column which reads "run differential" as next to Toronto, the number now reads +196, nearly double of every other AL team. Consider that last year, no team in baseball finished w/ higher than a +157 run differential. The Jays' hitting is just too good on a daily basis and now they're getting good pitching as well.

Actually, the offense was relatively quiet last night in a game that was tied 1-1 after nine innings.  But then, in the top of the 10th, Toronto broke through for four runs and that was "all she wrote."  We already know that this team averages way more runs than everybody else, so after being relatively quiet the last two days, I wouldn't be surprised to see a big day at the plate here, at the expense of Red Sox starter Joe Kelly. Yes, Kelly has a 7-0 TSR his last 7 starts.  But despite five consecutive quality outings, his overall numbers (4.84 ERA, 1.425 WHIP) remain pretty poor.  At one point, his ERA was 6.11 for the year. Kelly has not fared well vs. the Blue Jays this year, going winless in three starts and he's allowed 15 ER in 17 2/3 IP while walking 12 batters.

Twice Kelly has started opposite Drew Hutchison this year and both times the Red Sox lost, 7-1 and 13-10. Hutchison has had quite the fortunate campaign, thanks in large part to some other worldly run support. So critics will decry comeuppance in his last start, where he allowed six runs in five innings to Baltimore. But consider that he was coming off three straight quality starts. Somehow, this is only his second start on the road since the All-Star Break. His numbers on the road aren't inspiring, but what is inspiring is the fact the Blue Jays have won 29 of 37 games since July 29th, including 13 of the last 17.  They are the team to beat in the American League. 10* Toronto

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET):  This is the rubber match in the battle for last place, not just in the National League East, but in all of MLB.  The Braves and Phillies are clearly the two worst teams in the sport right now (and it should be pointed out, were expected to be) and have split the first two games of this three-game set here in the City of Brotherly Love. Maybe that was to be expected too as the clubs own virtually identical run differentials and both came into this series in horrible form.  Atlanta actually snapped a 12-game losing skid Monday w/ a 7-2 win, but it was the Phillies striking back yday w/ a 5-0 shutout after they themselves had dropped 10 of 13. But the Braves are favored Wednesday and I'm siding w/ them.

A big reason why the Braves are favored tonight, not surprisingly, is the pitching matchup. They have Julio Teheran on the bump and he's gone 2-0 w/ a 1.59 ERA in two starts vs. Philadelphia this season. The last one came in early August, here at Citizens Bank Park, and Teheran allowed just 2 ER in 7 IP, finishing w/ a 7-0 KW ratio.  Since that time, save for one very poor outing, it's been all quality starts for him. Last time out, he allowed just 1 ER on five hits, but sadly that wasn't enough against Washington. It would likely be enough against the Phils, who are 39-68 against right-handers & off just their fifth shutout win of the season. Note that Teheran is the lone Braves starter w/ a winning TSR on the season (15-13).

Meanwhile, it will be David Buchanan toeing the rubber for the home team in this one.  It was originally going to be Adam Morgan and there's no way to sugarcoat this, but the change shapes up to be a disaster for the Phils, because 2015 has basically been a disaster throughout for Buchanan. This will be the first time we've seen him since he allowed a ghastly 11 runs in just 1 2/3 innings of work back on August 11th.  After that performance, he was immediately demoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but I see no reason to expect much better tonight. In his last three starts at the big league level, Buchanan has a 14.54 ERA and 2.462 WHIP. For the season, those numbers are 9.00 and 1.959.  10* Atlanta

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  I'd say that the Rays' playoff chances are officially on life support following last night's 13-inning loss here in Detroit.  The 8-7 setback, their third in a row, first saw them blow a four-run lead only to rally for the tying run in the top of the ninth. Overall, they've lost five of six and are now four games below .500, 6.5 games back of the Wild Card. However, with the teams basically emptying out their respective benches yday as well as using 16 pitchers, I'd say Wednesday's game comes down to the starting pitching matchup. In that regard, Tampa Bay has the edge w/ Jake Odorizzi getting the baseball. Detroit's Kyle Lobstein has yet to really be effective over the course of his nine starts.

The Tigers waved the proverbial "white flag" long ago on 2015 and actually own the worst run differential in the entire American League (-94).  They have a losing home record are basically "bleeding money" in all situations this season, with the exception of day games and when they face LH starters. Neither of those conditions are present here. Lobstein certainly doesn't give them much of a chance either as he, a southpaw himself, has a 5.02 ERA and 1.519 WHIP in his nine starts and has been slightly worse over the course of his last four, all of which have resulted in losses for the team. Last time out saw him give up 6 ER in just 4 1/3 innings, which was his first start at the big league level in almost four months (DL).  Opponents are batting .358 against him those L4 starts and compounding matters is the fact TB is a solid 22-14 vs. LH starters this year.  A taxed Tigers' bullpen figures to offer little assistance.

Now, obviously, Odorizzi has endured his own struggles for Tampa Bay.  He didn't win at all in August, but that wasn't necessarily his fault as he allowed 2 ER or less in three of his five starts. Last time out saw him allow five runs, but only three hits, all of which were home runs. That's certainly an odd occurrence and one I don't think will be repeating itself. Odorizzi's last win was actually against Detroit, back on July 29th, when he allowed only one run over 6 IP. The Tigers had David Price pitching for them that day. Tonight, they have Lobstein. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Los Angeles (7:05 ET):  With Washington winning last night (in overtime), Atlanta was officially eliminated from playoff contention. Their home finale is two days from now, against Indiana, so motivation could be low Wednesday night.  Of course, Los Angeles (locked into the 4-seed in the Western Conference) has nothing to play for either. But the Sparks certainly look the part of the better team right now.  They have won three straight and six of seven as it's been a "tale of two seasons," one w/o Candace Parker and one with her.  A 3-14 start is a distant memory in LA as the team has since won 11 of 14 games and as they continue to prepare for the playoffs, I see them continuing to roll here.

When these teams met back on July 16th, it was the Dream coming out ahead 76-72 as the road team. But that was back when the Sparks were struggling without Parker.  They were actually led in scoring by Jantel Lavender, who had 20 pts.  So much from this team's first half of the season basically needs to be disregarded as now they're a completely different team. For instance, at one point they were 0-8 SU on the road, but have since won five of seven away games.  They're off B2B 90+ point efforts, including a very impressive win Sunday (that I was on) as they blew out Tulsa by 19 pts thanks to shooting better than 60 percent from the floor. Parker scored her season-high 33 pts in that game. 

Atlanta has gone on somewhat of a second-half surge of its own, but it was too little, too late, in a tougher Eastern Conference. The Dream are actually off one of their better defensive efforts of the season, holding Washington to 67 points Sunday, but let us not forget that this team is last in the league in points allowed (80.7) and had previously allowed 80+ in three straight games. This line is basically a pick 'em. While I would have loved to see the Sparks as an underdog (4-1 SU/ATS L5 when taking points) here, it's still a good value as they are the better team and have the added motivation of preparing for the playoffs.  While 8-2 ATS L10 games, the Dream were a dog of seven or more points in half of those games.  8* Los Angeles

10* Texas (10:10 ET):  The Rangers won here yday, 3-0, to maintain their 1.5 game lead over the Twins for the final Wild Card berth in the American League. The Rangers have been a real mystery to me this year as it seems inconceivable that a team outscored by 29 runs could be in position to make the playoffs.  But much of that is owed to their outstanding 40-32 road record (AL's best!).  They also have Cole Hamels on the mound Tuesday and thus I like their chances to keep it going against a Seattle club that is simply playing out the season. The Mariners have been a colossal disappointment this season and when neither Felix Hernandez nor Hisashi Iwakuma is on the hill, their record is 40-56. Go w/ the road team again tonight.

Hamels wasn't as good as I was hoping for his last time out (I took him), but he was good enough as he limited San Diego to just three runs over the course of seven innings and the Rangers were able to win 4-3.  It was the fourth straight Hamels start that the team was victorious (2.89 ERA) and as I said in my analysis for that last start, it does seem as if he's really settled into pitching in the American League. This will now be his third time facing the Mariners since coming over from Philadelphia. The first time saw him give up three home runs in a 4-3 loss, but then it was a better showing at home the next time out where he allowed three runs in seven innings. He continued to improve the next two starts, holding Detroit and Baltimore to just three runs and 10 hits combined in 14 IP.

With Hamels at the forefront, Texas clearly has a better rotation right now than they've had for most of the season. For Seattle, Taijuan Walker has been the only reliable option beyond Hernandez and Iwakuma, but he's somewhat fortunate to have a 16-11 TSR given a 4.51 ERA. He pitched against Hamels on August 17th and while the M's got the win, Walker allowed 10 hits in six innings. Remember that Seattle's offense did nothing yday. Given an 18-28 record vs. LH starters, they should struggle against the southpaw Hamels here. Having gone 25-12 since 7.29, the Rangers are now the second best bet in all of MLB this year at +24.77 units (only trailing St. Louis).  10* Texas

8* Kansas City (8:10 ET): While it's by no means "time to panic," things certainly aren't trending well right now for the Royals, who have lost four in a row after dropping Monday's series opener to Minnesota, 6-2.  The reigning AL pennant holders were also swept over the weekend by the lowly White Sox. This (hopefully) temporary nosedive has coincided w/ two key players - Alex Rios and Kelvin Herrera - contracting chicken pox. The current losing streak matches the Royals' longest of the entire season and while winning the AL Central is all but assured, homefield advantage is not, so the club needs to turn things around quickly. I'm no fan of these Twins (one winning month all season) & see KC bouncing back Tuesday.

Outside of a 20-7 month of May, Minnesota is eight games below .500 the rest of the year and I'm not sure how they've been able to keep pace in the Wild Card chase. Of course, the team they are currently 1.5 games behind, Texas, actually has a worse YTD run differential (-29 vs. -10).  The gap between the Twins and Royals though remains huge (11 games) and for good reason.  Sure they're only 8-6 head to head vs. Minnesota, but KC has a great homefield advantage (47-26 at Kauffman Stadium) & is one of only five AL teams to have a winning road record. The Twins are 42-26 at home, but only 29-40 on the road. Did you know that the Twins have been favored on the money line only 23 times ALL SEASON? Them still being in contention is something I cannot explain.

As of August 19th, Minnesota actually had the fewest road wins of any AL team. But they've since won 8 of 11 away from home. However, that success has not been shared by tonight's starter Kyle Gibson, who has turned in a horrible 9.30 ERA his L4 road starts. For the year, he's just 3-5 on the road (5-7 TSR) w/ a 5.02 ERA and 1.409 WHIP. Overall, Gibson has been a little more effective of late, but he also has lasted more than six innings just one time in nine starts since the Break. Meanwhile, Edinson Volquez has been more lucky than good lately for the Royals w/ a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts despite a 7.16 ERA and 1.591 WHIP, but overall his TSR is 20-8 this year. While Herrera being out has really hurt the KC bullpen, remember that the Twins are also still w/o closer Glen Perkins and that's a bigger loss because they don't have the same bullpen depth. 8* Kansas City

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Down the home stretch, the first place Lynx still have something to play for, namely the top overall seed in the Western Conference. With two games to play, they currently have a two-game lead over second place Phoenix, but would lose any kind of tiebreaker due to dropping three of five regular season matchups against the Mercury. They've had no such issue w/ Seattle however, as they've taken all three regular season matchups from the Storm and thankfully (for their sake) will close the season w/ a home & home against them. Needing just one win to gain the coveted home court edge in the playoffs, tonight at home, the percentage of the Lynx winning is obviously much higher, so I'll lay the points.

Seattle will not be going to the playoffs. Officially eliminated w/ a 9-22 SU record, they're almost certainly going to finish w/ a worse record compared to LY when they were 12-22.  For some reason, the Storm really had Los Angeles' number and beat them all four meetings this year.  You can do the math and thus see what their record against the rest of the league is. I already mentioned that they're 0-3 SU vs. Minnesota and while they did manage to play them tough at home (lost 76-73), they were blown out both times they were the road team, losing 94-70 and 82-57.  Though we're being asked to lay double digits tonight, it still seems as if we're getting a pretty nice value considering the lines were even higher the first two times Minnesota hosted and they were also -10.5 at Seattle on June 25th!

Furthermore, Seattle seems to have "thrown in the towel" as they've been blown out in B2B games, losing to Tulsa and Chicago, both by 28 points.  Just 2-14 SU on the road this season, the Storm are being outscored by an average of 11.7 points per game and that's factoring in lesser opponents than the one they'll be facing here. Meanwhile, off an outright loss at home to East-leading New York (which may cost them the #1 overall seed in the league), the Lynx should come out fired up for this one and considering they hold teams to just 68.9 PPG at home, plus Seattle hasn't broken 70 in three consecutive games, you have to like their chances here. 10* Minnesota

8* Toronto (7:10 ET):  The Blue Jays suffered a rare loss on Monday, dropping the series opener here at Fenway Park by a score of 11-4.  Despite having, by far, MLB's best run differential (+192), the team cannot afford any kind of letdown as their lead over the Yankees in the AL East is just one-half game. Making the playoffs is all but assured, but winning the division would obviously be far more ideal than the Wild Card. I really like their chances of bouncing back Tuesday seeing as they haven't dropped B2B games since mid-August. In fact, consecutive losses have happened just two times since the All-Star Break. Having knuckleballer RA Dickey (9-0 TSR L9 starts) on the mound makes me like them even more.

As we all know, the strength of Toronto is its MLB-best offense, which is averaging 5.5 runs per game, a full half run more than any other team.  I was surprised that they couldn't do more damage yday against Rick Porcello, but tonight should see them "tee off" against Henry Owens, who in six starts has a 5.87 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In his last start, which came against the league's second best offense (Yankees), Owens lasted only 1 2/3 innings and gave up six runs on seven hits.  That doesn't bode well here as the Blue Jays have scored 90 runs in 14 games this season vs. Red Sox pitching (despite only being 7-7 in those games). Here at home is where Owens has really struggled, giving up 6 HR's in three starts and his ERA is 8.62.

Pitching failed the Jays Monday, but w/ Dickey on the mound tonight, that shouldn't be a problem. Since the All-Star Break, he has gone 7-0 in his 10 starts w/ a 2.78 ERA. Of course, he has received the requisite amount of run support in the process (nearly 8.0 rpg L8 starts), but little in the way of run support was needed his last time out as Dickey went the distance against Cleveland, giving up just one run on four hits (6-0 KW ratio). Dickey has not faced Boston since the 1st half of the season and while its scary to see that he's 0-3 w/ a 5.76 ERA against them in 2015, note that he also was 4-0 w/ a 2.23 ERA against them last season. After allowing 10+ runs, the Blue Jays are 5-2 this season. Look for them to bounce back. 8* Toronto

8* LA Dodgers (9:05 ET):  You're probably not ever going to get Zack Greinke at a cheaper price than this, so my recommendation is to take him!  You probably don't need me to tell you how good of a season Greinke is having as he's certainly worthy of the Cy Young due to his remarkable numbers (1.64 ERA, 0.852 WHIP in 27 starts).  That ERA and WHIP are both MLB's best, thus it should not be a big surprise to find that Greinke has lost only one decision since mid-June.  As the season wears on, it actually appears he's getting stronger as in his last five starts, he's allowed five runs - total.  The Dodgers, who I won w/ yday, are a hot team right now (won 11 of 13 overall) and they're 6-0 L6 meetings vs. the cross-town rival Angels.

This would appear to be an even bigger pitching mismatch than normal w/ Greinke on the hill as the Angels will send out Nick Tropeano, who has been shelled for 10 runs in his last two starts (10 1/3 IP), both of which came here at home.  This is only his fourth start of 2015 as he's been used only as a spot starter w/ his last outing coming over two weeks ago. His other two starts came in April and July. He's only starting here b/c of a forearm injury to Matt Shoemaker, which is a huge net loss for the Halos as Shoemaker had been pitching really well of late.  Note that Tropeano has been worse w/ each passing start, not a good sign at all. The Angels are coming off a big win (won 7-0 Sunday) and a big series (took two of three from Texas), but this is a huge step up in class and keep in mind that this club is about 10 games below .500 since the end of July. There's really not much more I can say here other than Greinke's great, we all know that, and he should lead the Dodgers to another victory.  8* LA Dodgers

10* Under Ohio St/Virginia Tech (8:00 ET):  So, here is what the Buckeyes have been waiting a full year for: a chance to avenge their lone loss from LY's National Championship campaign. At the time, losing by two touchdowns as a 10-point favorite looked really ugly and it was thought it was a setback OSU could not recover from. But they wouldn't lose again and capped things off w/ three consecutive upsets w/ third-string Cardale Jones at QB. The big story out of Columbus this year is who will start start under center. Braxton Miller, considered the team's best player going into 2014 isn't even in the discussion anymore (now a WR), leaving the decision down to Jones vs. JT Barrett. Both are likely to see time Monday night and I think this could be a bit of an issue moving forward for the Bucks as the two QB system could very well disrupt the flow of the offense. I like this year's game to be far lower scoring than last year. Take the Under.

Last year, Ohio State averaged an incredible 44.8 points per game despite having only four returning starters and using two quarterbacks w/ no prior starting experience. I understand that expectations are "through the roof" for this year's team, but I keep going back to HC Urban Meyer's indecisiveness between Barrett and Jones. Understandably, it is a very tough call. But until Meyer goes w/ one of them, I don't think the offense reaches its full potential.  Against this tough Va Tech defense last year, OSU averaged just 4.7 yards per play. Granted, that was Barrett's first start and he threw 3 INTs, one of which was returned for a touchdown.  Take that defensive score away & we have a final score Under the oddsmakers' projected total here. Also, this Hokies defense figures to be very good this year w/ a set of cornerbacks as good as any in the country + the team is an incredible 12-deep along the defensive line!

Virginia Tech's offense only gained 324 yards in last year's meeting on 4.2 yards per play. For the season, the Hokies averaged just 24.1 PPG, thanks to some dreadful efforts against Miami (FL) (lost 30-6 at home) and Wake Forest (lost 6-3 - in 2OT's!). Their strong defense will keep them in this game, however. Whether or not, they are able to cover against a Buckeyes team that comes in a 10-0 SU in revenge situations w/ an avg MOV of two touchdowns remains to be seen.  Watch for Hokies' DC Bud Foster to bring plenty of pressure, similar to last year's meeting, as that gave the Ohio State offensive line all sorts of trouble.  10* Under Ohio State/Virginia Tech

10* Edmonton (4:35 ET):  The respective teams in this provincial rivalry never need an excuse to get up for this game, but the 2015 Labour Day Weekend meeting carries an even added importance as the Eskimos and Stampeders are separated by just one game in the standings. Calgary, winners of four straight and the defending Grey Cup Champs, are in the lead, but I feel Edmonton has actually been the better team this season as they still have a slightly better YTD point differential even though the Stamps have romped to victory over two lesser opponents (Ottawa & Winnipeg) in the L3 weeks. But, to me, this one all comes down to revenge as the Esks lost all five meetings w/ Calgary in 2014, including the Western Division Final.  This is their "Game of the Year" and I'll take the points.

Close games have somewhat ruled the day this season in CFL as almost half of the 42 regular season games played (18) have been decided by four points or less.  Calgary certainly has played its fair share of close contests six of nine games have been decided by three points or less. Hence, they're only 2-7 at the betting window and not really a great candidate to be laying points right now. They did just crush the Blue Bombers last week, but as I said yday, Winnipeg may be the worst team in the league. Meanwhile, Edmonton bounced back from an ugly 29-point home loss to Hamilton by blasting Toronto 38-15 in the first career start of pivot man James Franklin, who threw for an impressive 316 yards.  But more impressive to me is still the Eskimos defense, which has allowed 17 pts or fewer in six of the last eight games. They are #1 in the league at just 18.4 PPG allowed.

But the big story here is obviously the long losing streak, which actually goes beyond last year's 0-5 SU record vs. the Stamps (also 0-5 ATS). Incredibly, they have not beaten Calgary in four years, losing 11 straight times overall in the regular season. They are 0-9 ATS the L9 Labour Day matchups, but I think that is due to turn around w/ this year's team, which I feel is superior to last year even w/o QB Mike Reilly. Again, I'm taking the points here, but do not be surprised if it's an outright win. 10* Edmonton

8* Houston (4:05 ET): I'm going to go against Oakland again here as its clear they've thrown in the towel on 2015.  It's five straight losses and counting for the A's, all at home, and they were just swept here by Seattle over the weekend. I was on the Mariners in two of those games, Friday's opener and Sunday's finale and see no reason to discontinue going against the last place club now that they have the division leaders coming to town. Sure, the 'Stros are just .500 over their L12 games and lost three of four in Oakland last month. But they just took two of three from Minnesota and cannot afford to slow down w/ their lead in the division down to three games. At -28.9 units, the A's have been the worst team to bet on in all of MLB this year.

Many times, when a pitcher is coming off a no-hitter in his previous start, he regresses his next time out.  Someone forgot to tell that to Houston's Michael Fiers. After tossing his no-no on 8.21 vs. the Dodgers, Fiers came back to throw six strong innings at Minnesota eight days later, allowing just one run and three hits. Not much was made of Fiers coming over from Milwaukee at the end of July, but he's certainly been at excellent acquisition as in four starts his ERA is 0.67 as he's allowed all of 2 ER in 27 innings of work. His WHIP over his L3 starts is 0.787 in spite of eight walks, which right there should tell you that he hasn't allowed many hits.  His first start in a Houston uniform came against these A's and he held them to only one run and five hits.

Overall, the A's have lost 17 of 24 and there's really no signs of hope down the stretch.  As I said in yday's analysis, a home run streak which has now reached 12 games has done the club little good as they've won only three times during that span. Sunday saw the lineup get held to just two runs and Fiers hasn't allowed any HR's in his L3 starts.  Pitching for the home team today is Felix Doubront, who has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts despite a 1.571 WHIP.  The offense has scored 11 runs in each of his last two outings, and they needed to his last time out as he allowed four runs in six innings w/ seven hits and four walks. Oakland, 15-31 in one-run games, is not only bad, but unlucky as well. 8* Houston

10* Miami (1:10 ET):  I can't imagine the handle being too large on this game at the various sportsbooks, but regardless I see a good value in going against a Milwaukee club that had a six-game win streak snapped yday in Cincinnati.  The Marlins, surprisingly enough, have won five of six themselves and while it's taken a monumental freefall by the Braves, they've now made good on my mid-season prediction that they'd take over third place in the woeful NL East. Yes, the the Fish are still 23 games under .500, but based on their run differential they have a win expectancy of a 61-win team. They've also proven themselves to be competent at home where they're 32-37 for the year. Milwaukee is a terrible 19-28 in day games.

The Marlins just took two of three from the first place Mets here at home, which is pretty impressive.  Both wins were in walkoff fashion, but consider that in the previous series (on the road) they outscored Atlanta 18-4.  As a team, they're batting .310 the last seven games and remember that's w/o Giancarlo Stanton. These two teams have met only one time all season and that was last month in Milwaukee where the Marlins were able to take two of three. Thus, the price seems pretty cheap on them for today's series opener. 

Handicapping this matchup may seem difficult due to the unknown commodities in the pitching department, but I'm obviously giving an edge to Miami's Justin Nicolino over Milwaukee's Zach Davies. Nicolino has already beaten the Brewers once this year, holding them to just two runs on six hits in 6 2/3 IP on August 17th.  There, he beat a far more established pitcher, Matt Garza. Nicolino has a 1.74 ERA & 1.161 WHIP his L3 starts overall and last time out threw seven shutout innings of six-hit ball.  Of his seven starts this season, five have been quality, including each of the last four.  That sounds a lot better than what Davies has done for the Brew Crew, which is just one start (last Wednesday) where he gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings + he also walked three batters. The team won anyway, 9-4, but that seems like a fortunate result to me and his 2nd big league start won't go as well. 10* Miami

8* Hamilton (1:05 ET):  Well, it was bound to happen sooner rather than later. I just didn't think it would be last week.  For the first time since it opened LY, the Ti-Cats lost at Tim Hortons Stadium, falling outright to Montreal, 26-23 as 11-pt chalk.  The issue I saw was their usually sound defense allowing 130 yards rushing. This week is a shot at redemption for Hamilton, who hosts a Toronto team they've already beaten here at home this season, by a score of 34-18. Predictably, the line is noticeably higher for the rematch of co-Eastern Division leaders, but it should be as the Ti-Cats are clearly the better squad. Not only have they outscored opponents by a league-high 133 points this year, but despite their own 6-3 SU record, the Argos are actually -7 in point differential. Lay the points.

I always think that the sign of a good team is that they have many blowout wins. Hamilton certainly fits that bill. Not only have they already beaten rival Toronto by 16, but they then followed that up w/ B2B 30-pt victories over Winnipeg & BC, followed by a very impressive 29-pt win at Edmonton. I have the Ti-Cats rated as the #1 team in the league by a fairly comfortable margin right now. Meanwhile, Toronto has been fortunate to win a series of close calls this year. Five of their six wins have been by less than a TD & the majority of them required come from behind efforts. So, I wasn't surprised at all to see them go down last week at Edmonton, 38-15, in what was my top CFL play for Week 10. The Argos were outgained 403-226 in the contest (season low on offense) and it was the fourth time in five games they failed to cover. Like Hamilton, they never led last week. 

In the last meeting between these two rivals, Toronto actually had a significant edge in total yards, but it didn't matter.  The bottom line here is that w/ the game taking place at the "Donut Box," the Ti-Cats have a huge edge due to a 10-1 SU all-time record here. As I said in last week's analysis, Toronto has actually trailed at the half in all six of their wins this year, four times they were behind going into the final quarter. Don't forget about a Ti-Cats' defense that is on pace to set a record for touchdowns scored in a season either. 8* Hamilton

10* Over Liberty/Lynx (7:05 ET):  This is a matchup of the two conference leaders (potential Finals preview?) and while the East-leading Liberty can clinch homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs w/ a win here and also lead the league in fewest points allowed, I see a ton of value on the Over in this one.  Due to a recent rash of Unders from both squads, we have a really low total Sunday night in Minnesota, one that's significantly lower than both are accustomed to seeing.  In fact, I have it as the lowest O/U for either team in any game this entire season!  It's significantly lower than what we saw for the respective teams' last games and "total" (pardon the pun) over-adjustment by the linesmakers, IMO.  Take the Over.

  New York was surprisingly blown out, at home, in its last game as they surrendered 82 points to Chicago. That final score would have fallen just short of tonight's total, but you have to expect improvement on the offensive end after they shot just 34.8 percent from the floor Thursday. Also note that the Liberty's two previous games, both of which stayed Under, would have actually gone Over tonight's total.  The team's scoring had been remarkably consistent prior to Thursday w/ them scoring between 77 and 81 pts nine times in 11 games. The two outliers were 73-pt and 90-pt performances. So, again, all we are asking for here is an "average" offensive performance by the Liberty. Though Minnesota tends to be much stingier on the defensive end here at home (68.5 PPG allowed), it's been their last two games that have severely affected that average.

The Lynx allowed an average of just 63 PPG in B2B double digit victories over Phoenix and Indiana.  But note that Friday's win over the Fever would have also gone Over tonight's total.  There, the team broke out of a shooting slump by connecting on 53.1% of their FG attempts en route to 81 points, their most in a game since mid-August.  But that shouldn't have been too surprising considering that they average a solid 78.1 PPG here at home.  Again, all we're asking for is an "average" offensive performances. If both sides do that, then this one will fly Over the number. 10* Over Liberty/Lynx

8* Los Angeles (5:05 ET):  Barring any kind of epic collapse, the Sparks will be joining Tulsa, Minnesota and Phoenix as the four Western Conference playoff teams.  The fact that the two teams here could both make the playoffs w/ "plenty of room to spare" despite each enduring very long losing streaks during the regular season, speaks volumes. There is no doubt that after struggling initially in the wake of the Skylar Diggins injury, the Shock have turned things around. They come into Sunday on a six-game win streak (also 6-0 ATS), but I see that coming to an end this afternoon as LA not only has revenge for a 10-point road loss suffered last weekend, but also can clinch that elusive playoff berth w/ a win here.

Since losing to the Shock, the Sparks have rebounded w/ B2B wins here at home, beating San Antonio and Washington, but covered in neither. Yet, overall the team has won 10 of its last 14 games and you pretty much have to disregard the overall record because they started 3-14 SU due to not having Candace Parker in the lineup. Since returning, Parker has posted a double-double in 12 of the L13 games. Also back is Nneke Ogwumike, who contributed 24 pts & 10 rebounds in Thursday's two-point win over the Mystics. Ogwumike missed the last matchup w/ Tulsa, but averaged 22.3 PPG in the previous three, including 26 in a 84-57 blowout win one month ago.

Tulsa has been pretty dominant during its win streak, not only upsetting the league-best Liberty on the road, but then winning its last five games by an average of 13 PPG. Thus, it would seem strange to see them as this prohibitive of an underdog. But I think the line speaks volumes about where Los Angeles is at right now. This is not the same Sparks team that Tulsa has played in the past, and again it is notable that the only time LA had both Parker and Ogwumike in the lineup against the Shock, they won by 27.  The home team is 4-0 SU in the past four matchups this season.  Tulsa is just 6-9 SU on the road due to giving up an average of 78.7 PPG and after a string of surprisingly good defensive performances, I have them regressing here. The Shock have simply been too streaky this year to trust. 8* Los Angeles

10* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): This looks like an incredibly cheap price on the first place Dodgers, who are gunning for a three-game sweep of the division rival Padres Sunday. Given the price, you obviously know that neither Clayton Kershaw nor Zack Greinke will be on the hill, but the team hasn't needed them in either of the first two games, most notably yday when starter Alex Wood led the way w/ seven shutout innings en route to a 2-0 victory. Today's starter, Brett Anderson, has probably been the club's best non-Kershaw/non-Greinke option throughout the regular season (his 14 wins are 3rd most on the team) and this will be the first time San Diego has seen the lefty all season. The Dodgers are 10-5 vs. San Diego in 2015.

Anderson has allowed 3 ER or less in four straight starts as well as 13 of his L14 starts, dating all the way back to mid-June. While that's a little misleading in the sense that he hasn't always been efficient or gone deep into games, he has gone 6+ innings in five of his last seven starts. Last time out, he only made it through five, giving up six hits, but the team won anyway, 5-4 over the Giants.  There's two things that really stand out to me when it comes to Anderson. One, is obviously the fact he leads all of MLB in groundball percentage at 67.1. Two, his ERA on the road is 2.67.  Here, he'll be facing a Padres lineup that has been shut out 17 times this season, the most times of any team. Last season saw SD get blanked a MLB-high 19 times.

Andrew Cashner's season has been quite frustrating for the Padres and I see no reason why he'd be likely to turn things around here. He hasn't beaten the Dodgers in three tries so far this season, which included him getting roughed up the first go around. He was much sharper the next two times, but those performances were essentially "wasted" by going up against Greinke.  Cashner has failed to make it through six innings in three of his last four starts overall and allowed 4 ER his last time out (in 5 IP) in an 8-6 loss to the Rangers (who were w/o the DH) here at home. Adrian Gonzalez, in particular, has had a ton of success in the past against Cashner (.367 w/ 4 HR's in 30 AB).  10* LA Dodgers

8* Seattle (4:05 ET):  The Mariners are going for a sweep here and w/ Hisashi Iwakuma on the hill, I'd rate their chances of pulling off the feat as being pretty high.  The team has won four in a row and what's been most surprising is that it's been the offense carrying the load w/ 34 runs scored in those games. I took them in Friday's opener, as they erased an early 5-0 hole, coming from behind to win 11-8. Then last night saw Felix Hernandez deliver eight strong innings, picking up his 16th win in the process, with nine strikeouts and he allowed just 3 ER. This has just been a miserable season for the A's, meanwhile, as they're now 20 games below .500 and have lost four in a row. Two teams trending in opposite directions here.

Iwakuma had a bit of a rough start to 2015, including a long stint on the DL, but has turned things around by allowing 3 ER or less in eight of his L10 starts, including a no-hitter on 8.12 vs. Baltimore. He was roughed up when he faced on Oakland at home on 8.24, but bounced back to allow only 2 ER in a win over the White Sox last Saturday. As you can see, he's working on extended rest here, so I expect him to pitch well. Over his L5 road starts, he's gone 3-0 w/ a 2.38 ERA.  Before getting roughed up by them last month, Iwakuma was 4-2 his L6 starts vs. Oakland w/ a 3.54 ERA. While the A's have homered in 11 consecutive games, it hasn't done them much good as they've dropped seven of those games, four of them coming against these Mariners!

Starting today for Oakland is Sean Nolin, who came over from Toronto in the Josh Donaldson trade. This is the time of year we see these kind of call-ups from non-contenders as what else are they really playing for, but the future?  Nolin missed much of the year because of injuries and while his numbers from Triple-A Nashville look okay, he was roughed up in his lone start at the big league level, which came all the way back in 2013. He lasted only 1 1/3 innings and allowed six runs on seven hits. As mentioned before, this Seattle lineup has done well for itself in recent days (despite no Nelson Cruz). In winning 7 of 10, they've scored 6 or more runs a total of seven times. 8* Seattle

10* Saskatchewan (4:05 ET): I think that the Rough Riders burned a lot of people last week, myself among them, as many were calling for them to pick up their first win of the season (at Ottawa), but what happened instead was an ugly 35-13 loss as 3.5-point dogs. In retrospect, perhaps that was too "obvious" of a call. But after getting burned last week, I'm coming right back w/ the league's only winless team in Week 11 as not only are they favored to win this time, but they're taking on arguably the league's second worst team at home. In fact, the Blue Bombers have scored the fewest points in the entire league this season, and like Saskatchewan, are dealing w/ a major injury at the pivot position.

The big news coming out of Saskatoon this week is a coaching change. Bob Dyce will now lead the team for the rest of 2015, replacing Corey Chamblin. Obviously, when the team is 0-9 SU, something has to happen and at least in the short-term, a coaching change can have a positive effect.  Dyce has already promised that "good things will happen" & for what it's worth, a coaching change back on Labour Day of 2011 brought positive results for the Riders. This is a rivalry game too, so you know the crowd at Mosiac Stadium will be fired up. Saskatchewan has beaten Winnipeg on Labour Day Weekend 10 straight years, so this looks like the turnaround spot the team has been yearning for. Note that the majority of the team's losses this season have been close (six of them by four pts or less!) including a 30-26 loss here to the Bombers back in Wk 1.

As bad as things have been for the Rough Riders this season, the Blue Bombers haven't been much better, especially of late. Last week saw them lose for the fifth time in six games as not even a bye week could correct their many issues in what ended up being a 36-8 loss at home to Calgary. That was the third time in five games they were held to single digits.  They obviously badly miss QB Drew Willy. Without him, they have really struggled to win games the last two seasons. Offensively, they are averaging less than 300 YPG (almost 100 per game less than Saskatchewan). 10* Saskatchewan

5* Boston (1:35 ET):  I don't need to tell you that the Phillies are awful. The line here should have let you on to that, not to mention a full season's body of work that is downright ugly.  A 9-2 loss Saturday kept them one-half game "ahead" of division mate Atlanta for the worst record in baseball (30 games below .500) and the teams' respective run differentials are equally pathetic (Phillies -172). Where Philly is at its worst is clearly on the road where they've gone a hideous 23-48 this season while getting outscored by roughly two full runs per game. It's a lot of juice to swallow here, but I'll make an exception as it's worth going against the Phils one more time in what's been a lost season from the start. The Red Sox have arguably their best pitcher going Sunday.

That would be Eduardo Rodriguez, whose turned in a 1.89 ERA his L3 starts, all of those coming here at Fenway. Opponents have surprisingly hit him fairly well (.274) during that time, but he's allowed just 4 ER. Rodriguez has made four bad starts this year, but at the same time he's also allowed 2 ER or less in 12 of 17 outings. Offensive support should not be an issue for Rodriguez here as the Boston bats have produced 16 runs and 24 hits in this series so far. For the season, they're averaging a very healthy 5.3 runs per game here at home w/ an outstanding .293 team batting average.

Quietly, the Red Sox are a pretty strong 11-6 since August 18th and they are 27-12 head to head vs. the Phillies since '04. They also won both times they've been chalk of -200 or higher.  Philadelphia's pitching has been atrocious of late w/ starters going 0-5 w/ an 8.46 ERA the L6 games. Sadly, that earned run average is pretty similar when you stretch it out over a 15-game sample size. For the year, the current rotation has combined to go 16-39 w/ a 6.23 ERA. Jerad Eickhoff, acquired in the Cole Hamels deal, gets the pill on Sunday.  He's actually pitched relatively well in his three starts, but has allowed 3 ER each of his L2 times out. I just can find no reason to endorse the huge underdog in this situation. 5* Boston

8* Over 4.5 Rounds Johnson/Dodson (11:59 ET):  I'm calling for this Flyweight Title match to go to the scorecards (w/ the champ most likely retaining). Johnson, the champ, is set to tie the record for most consecutive title defenses at any weight class (Jose Aldo) w/ another win here. "Mighty Mouse" has been the promotion's only champion ever at 125 lbs, winning a tournament back in September of 2012 over Joseph Benavidez. Since then, he's made six successful title defenses w/ only two going to the cards. But that should probably have been four out of six, as in his last fight, he pulled off the latest submission in UFC history (at 4:59 of Round 5) against Kyoji Horiguch, his second 5th rd sub as champ.

This is a rematch from Johnson's 1st ever title defense, a fight where he was actually knocked down twice and found himself in real trouble. That fight, which took place back in January of 2013, did to the cards and saw Johnson win via unanimous decision. Because of the two knockdowns in that fight, expect Johnson to be more cautious in the rematch. He can simply concentrate on scoring via takedowns. After all, he is the only UFC fighter in history to have 10+ takedowns in three fights. Dodson though does have a pretty good takedown defense (89%) and has shown an ability to recover.  I just don't see him (Dodson) being able to deliver on his knockout power, which really is his only chance of victory here. If Johnson can get this fight to the ground, then he'll win it fairly easily in the eyes of the judges.

Dodson has fought only three times since the loss to Johnson, all wins, but it was the close call in the first fight that's landed him the rematch as this division has a dearth of contenders. His last fight, a unanimous decision over Zach Makovsky, went to the cards. Being the challenger, Dodson is less used to the five round format in play for title fights and thus I expect him to wear down late.  Sadly for fight fans, I see the rematch being a whole lot less exciting compared to the first go-around as Johnson will be content to score points and let the judges give him the win. 8* Over 4.5 rounds Johnson/Dodson

10* LA Angels (9:05 ET):  This is a really critical series for the Angels, arguably their most important of the entire season, so it was huge for them to take last night's series opener, 5-2, from Texas. That closed the gap in the Wild Card chase to just 2.5 games entering play tonight & considering some of the Rangers' obvious flaws, I see the home team continuing its success in this series. When I speak of "flaws," I'm referring to the fact that Texas has greatly outperformed its win expectation, by about six games, in terms of run differential (they're -23). This team has given up the fourth most runs in the entire American League this season and considering where the three teams above them are in the standings, that's just not a good sign moving forward.

Rangers' "killer" CJ Cron knocked in all five runs yday as he was a home run away from hitting for the cycle.  The win snapped a four-game home losing streak for the Angels, who are still 40-27 in Anaheim for the season. More importantly, it was their third win in a row overall and I think they are a steal at this price on the money line. Yes, Texas has one of MLB's best road records. But I happen to think that's very fluky considering they've actually been outscored in those contests. Starting tonight for the Halos is Jered Weaver, whose recent numbers look pretty ugly, but he's also been unlucky in the sense that all but five of the 21 baserunners he's allowed in his L2 starts have scored. Weaver, who somehow has yet to face Texas in 2015, has owned them here at home w/ a 10-0 record and 2.30 ERA in 16 career starts. He's also 3-1 w/ a 2.44 ERA his L7 home starts overall.

The Angels have really dominated Texas the last couple seasons, going 23-9 against them, including a 9-4 mark in '15.  The Rangers are only 20-30 vs. the rest of the division this season. Derek Holland gets the start Saturday night after he delivered a three-hit, CG shutout w/ 11 K's his last time out. But this is his very first road start of the season as he missed all of May, June and July while recovering from knee surgery. I don't think that there's anything to suggest that we'll be seeing a repeat of Holland's last performance this time out.  10* LA Angels

8* Florida State (8:00 ET):  This is a big favorite for me, but the Seminoles aren't laying nearly what they were at the open (-36!) and thus there is some value here, especially considering the 1st Half line is still at -17. Certainly, you know the 'Noles story by this point.  One year removed from winning the final BCS Championship, FSU was a disaster at the betting window in 2014, going 3-11 ATS and after numerous close calls (7-0 SU in games decided by seven pts or less), they were drubbed by Oregon (59-20) in the first ever CFP.  I think the conventional wisdom is that they take a step back in 2015, but w/ the significant addition of QB Everett Golson, it won't be a big step back. There certainly won't be any stepping back here against an overmatched Texas State squad. Lay the points. 

Texas State has actually been bowl eligible each of the last two seasons for HC Dennis Franchione (formerly Alabama & Texas A&M), but were not invited either time. That will have them motivated moving forward, but for now this is just a paycheck game for the Bobcats, who have never taken on an opponent of this caliber. They've played only two ranked opponents since making the move to FBS and one was Louisiana Tech. In 2013, they lost at Texas Tech 33-7.  It will be tough for them to duplicate LY's outstanding ball protection (only 12 turnovers). TSU played a lot of close games last year, as did Florida State, but this won't be one of them for either. I expect the underdog to wilt in the second half.

Golson's arrival in Tallahassee is huge. Yes, he was turnover prone at Notre Dame, but he has a much more talented offense here.  RB Dalvin Cook was cleared off some off-field issues and will play the whole way Saturday night. Coming off a 1,000+ yd season, his presence will really help Golson's transition.  I also happen to think the Seminoles' defense will be much better this year.  The bottom line is that this is a team that has not lost a regular season game in two seasons, and will come into the year motivated after underachieving in 2014.  Look out Texas State, you've been warned. 8* Florida State

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (7:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the White Sox +1.5. After getting humiliated in last night's series opener (lost 12-1), the expectation for first place Kansas City will be to bounce back here. But I feel this is a bit of a dangerous time for these Royals. They're comfortably out in front in not only their division (13 games), but the rest of the entire AL as well (six games), so it would not be unreasonable to expect them to get complacent down the stretch. Further complicating matters is the case of a chicken pox outbreak affecting the team as both reliever Kelvin Herrera and LF Alex Rios, two key cogs, are out of the lineup as is 3B Mike Moustakis still (hamstring).

The White Sox have little to play for, other than pride, at this point, but that didn't stop them from demolishing KC yday, 12-1. Starter John Danks went the distance and it was the fifth time in the last six games that the offense scored at least six runs. Now, expecting tonight's starter Jose Quintana to duplicate what Danks was able to do may seem foolish given his four no-decisions and 5.63 ERA vs. KC this year. But coming off his second shortest outing of the season, I expect him to bounce back. Last Sunday marked the 1st time since late June that Quintana allowed multiple HR's in a start, plus it was the only time he failed to go six innings since the All-Star Break. The team is 3-0 in his last three starts, regardless. 

It's not as if Kansas City's Danny Duffy should strike fear into the hearts of the White Sox lineup either. Over his L3 starts, he has a 4.59 ERA and 1.595 WHIP & he's made it through six innings just once in his last five starts. With the Royals' bullpen weakened, this presents a problem.  Duffy should feel pretty fortunate to have a 9-2 TSR here at home as he himself is just 4-2.  Remember that after his first 10 starts of the season, Duffy had an ERA of 5.44. In two meetings here in Kauffman Stadium vs. the White Sox, his ERA is a woeful 8.64. I look for the visitors to do no worse than a one-run loss Saturday night. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

10* Texas A&M (7:00 ET):  I think that a lot of people are going to take a look at this line and be confused. How is it that an unranked team, on a neutral field, is favored over a top 15 opponent? To me though, the number is correct and speaks volumes. Admittedly, I have not been on the Arizona State bandwagon either of the past two seasons, both of which have seen Todd Graham's Sun Devils win 10 games.  Two years ago, this team made it all the way to the Pac 12 Title Game (lost at home to Stanford) while LY's bunch had another successful year (despite only eight returning starters). So, with 16 starters back from 2014, it's easy to understand why there's a great deal of fanfare coming out of Tempe this season. It's just that, once again, I'm not buying it.

You can poke some holes in LY's 10-3 record by the Sun Devils as not only were they an extremely fortunate +15 in the turnover department, but they were also actually outgained by about 15 yards per game in conference play. They've gone 6-1 SU the last two years in games decided by seven points or less and that's not easy to do. So I'm calling for some good old fashioned regression in Graham's fourth year here.  Against SEC opponents, the Sun Devils have dropped 9 of 12, most recently a road loss to Missouri back in 2012 and they are 0-6 SU when opening on the road against a Power 5 opponent.  Turnovers have been huge for ASU recently, as mentioned above, and they've scored 184 pts off them the last two seasons. What happens when they're not getting those TO's?  Also, it should be pointed out that on a neutral field, ASU is 0-3 ATS the L2 seasons. They failed to cover both bowl games and lost outright at Cowboys Stadium to Notre Dame.

Texas A&M figures to have a big edge in fan support w/ this game taking place in Houston. Defense has obviously been an issue in College Station the past couple of seasons, but w/ former LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis coming over to serve in the same role under Kevin Sumlin, I expect that unit to improve.  Offense will obviously not be a problem and I expect the numbers to return to "Johnny Football levels" as QB Kyle Allen got better as 2014 went along. Arizona State's defense likes to blitz, but Allen showed me he could handle the pressure LY.  This is a big one for the SEC as it's a game vs. the Pac 12 South, which some are starting to talk about as if it is the top division in the sport. By the way, A&M has not lost a non-conference game since joining the SEC. 10* Texas A&M

8* Bowling Green (4:00 ET):  Tennessee is another SEC team getting a lot of hype. Yes, the Vols are coming off their first winning season since '09 (destroyed Iowa in the bowl game) and are among the national leaders in returning starters. But I'm not sure they deserve to be ranked to open the season or deserve to be in the discussion for a SEC Championship. This season opener is a tricky spot, not just because they're dealing w/ some suspensions and injuries and have an obvious look ahead to Oklahoma next week. Bowling Green is a feisty underdog that averaged 30 PPG last year despite losing its starting QB in the season opener. That starting QB (Matt Johnson) is now back, as is every other offensive starter for the Falcons. They'll give Tennessee all they can handle.  Take the points.

Bowling Green's 8-6 SU record from last year is a little misleading in the sense that they actually wrapped up the MAC East pretty early in the season and elected to rest starters in their final two regular season games. Sadly, it did them no good as they got hammered by Northern Illinois, 51-17, in the Conference Championship Game. A bowl win over South Alabama was a nice way to end the season though and HC Dino Babers has a good team back. Keep in mind this is NOT a "true" road game for the Falcons (it's being played in Nashville, home of the NFL's Titans). While that might seem like semantics, it's always nice not to have to play on your opponent's campus.

BGSU's defense isn't great (hence the total being bet up so much), but I do feel the offense will be able to keep pace w/ Tennessee. Johnson threw for nearly 3500 yards and 25 TD's in 2013.  At his disposal this season are six pass catchers that had at least 27 receptions last year. Even w/o Johnson, the Falcons averaged 432.9 YPG last year and they work at a fast pace. The offense figures to improve upon those numbers this season.  Meanwhile, UT has some major issues in the trenches, along both lines.  The offensive line allowed 43 sacks in 2014 and has already lost starting guard Marcus Jackson for the season. A starting center has not been named either.  Two starters in the defensive backfield were lost to injury in the last couple weeks. WR Pig Howard has been suspended for this game. We also don't know who will be starting at either defensive tackle position!  8* Bowling Green

10* Eastern Michigan (3:30 ET):  A program that's won all of four games the last two seasons sure seems to be getting a lot of respect from the linesmakers, don't they? Right away, that set off alarm bells for me, especially w/ the bulk of the bets going on the road favorite (Old Dominion) here, yet the line is coming DOWN!  Eastern Michigan has a real chance at pulling the upset here, at least in my eyes, as HC Chris Crieghton has 13 starters back including eight of them on the defensive side of the ball. Last year, while scoring only three points, they were still able to stay within a generous 19-point number playing on the road against ODU, so in Ypsilanti I'd like their chances even more.  Take the points here.

If not for five fumbles (two lost) by EMU, last year's matchup could perhaps have been even closer. Old Dominion was held to its second lowest scoring output of the season and had only 187 yards passing despite the presence of senior QB Taylor Heinicke.  Heinicke departed in the offseason and in his wake a redshirt freshman will be starting. Something else to keep in mind is that other than EMU, the Monarchs did not beat a single FBS opponent by more than a field goal.  Thus, laying points w/ them on the road seems dicey. As a favorite, ODU is just 1-4 ATS the previous two seasons.  Last year's game was only 10-3 before a Monarchs' punt return w/ 7:43 left in the game. Since moving up to the FBS-level, ODU is just 4-8 SU on the road.

While a perennial doormat in the MAC, Eastern Michigan does have some signs pointing up this year and while they won't even finish .500, they should have their most wins since 2011's 6-6 campaign. For starters, it will be tough to duplicate last year's awful -18 turnover margin, which was second worst in the entire country. QB Reggie Bell is also now a junior and has a full season's worth of experience under his belt.  The Eagles were in the midst of four consecutive road games when they played ODU last season, this being the season opener, at home no less, the spot is much better for them.  Looking at their entire schedule, this appears to be one of the more "winnable" games. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Louisville (3:30 ET):  Auburn comes into the year ranked #3 in the entire country. Needless to say, I think that's a case of "putting the cart before the horse" as I have them finishing third in their own division (behind 'Bama and LSU). The offense will again be great (despite only four returning starters), but I question just how much this defense can improve in one year under new DC Will Muschamp (allowed 410 YPG L2 yrs) and this is a very tough challenge against a Bobby Petrino-coached offense. Remember that the Tigers lost FIVE games in 2014, three of them by double digits and they were only 3-7 ATS as favorites. I am not nearly as high on this team as the rest of the country seems to be.  Take the points w/ Louisville.

Bobby Petrino doesn't have a ton of returning starters back (only 9), but L'ville still is a contender in a wide open ACC.  Remember that Petrino formerly coached at Arkansas and knows the SEC well.  Granted, things didn't go so well in the bowl game vs. Georgia at the end of last year, but that should only serve to motivate them further. Petrino and Malzahn never got to match wits, but in the former's last meeting vs. Auburn, who was ranked #15 at the time, he beat them 38-14. Petrino has not elected to name a starting QB yet, but has three options and may turn to all three in this game.  That will keep a questionable Auburn defense guessing. Going back to '09, the Tigers' D has allowed a horrible average of 5.6 yards per play, which is 50th among the 65 Power 5 Conference teams.

Though they only have four returning starters, I expect the Cardinals' defense to be very good in the second year in coordinator Todd Grantham's system.  Remember that w/ only four returning starters last year, the team allowed only 21.8 PPG & that was w/ a brand new coordinator. Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson is getting a lot of hype based off a relatively small sample size. I'm just not sold on this Tigers team being as good as it's being made out to be.  Petrino is 10-0 SU/6-2 ATS in season openers and will be a tough out. Over the past two seasons, L'ville is 21-5 SU and two of last year's losses were by 6 pts or less. Another was a huge blown lead vs. Florida State. They won't be intimidated.  8* Louisville

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): It's a quick turnaround for the Rays and Yankees Saturday afternoon & with these two trending in different directions as of late, I'm favoring the home team. New York took last night's series opener by a score of 5-2, to pull within one-half game of AL East-leading Toronto. The Yanks had only four hits for the game, but three of them were home runs, and Luis Severino took care of the rest on the mound. Overall, the guys in Pinstripes have won six of seven, including three straight. The Rays, meanwhile, have now dropped B2B games as well as 7 of their last 11.  Tonight's starting pitching matchup is even less in their favor and it's unlikely that the Yankees' offense is held in check for a second straight night.

Yanks starter Nathan Eovaldi is proving that sometimes its better to be lucky than good. The owner of MLB's longest win streak of the season (9-0 in L13 starts), his numbers indicate that he's having a pretty fortunate season in terms of won-loss record. His ERA and WHIP are 4.17 and 1.443 respectively & his last time out saw him allow 5 ER in 5 IP against Atlanta. But, of course, that didn't matter as the offense scored TWENTY times! While it may sound as if I'm skeptical of Eovaldi, the fact remains that he's unbeaten this season in the Bronx (5-0 in 12 starts), where he's put up better than his overall numbers and his last time here saw him throw eight innings of scoreless, four-hit ball against the Astros. Also, with the offense still averaging 8.9 runs its last seven games, you have to figure that Eovaldi's league-best run support is going to continue.

The Rays counter w/ Matt Moore, who is making his return to the big leagues after a demotion to Triple-A.  That followed a season-long stint on the DL (Tommy John surgery) as it's certainly been a tough year for Moore and this is a tough spot. Truth be told, he didn't look very good after returning w/ a 10.66 ERA his L3 starts at the big league level. In his six starts overall, he never once made it past the fifth inning and only one time did he allow fewer than four runs.  Tampa Bay is 18-23 in day games while the Yankees are 24-18.  8* NY Yankees

8* Northwestern (12:00 ET):  For the record, I'm pretty high on Stanford this season.  But, nevertheless, this remains a tricky spot for the Cardinal, who find themselves laying double digits out of their own time zone. If you don't think that matters, let's take a look at recent Big 10-Pac 12 matchups, shall we? On opening night, Michigan not only lost, but failed to cover at Utah. Last year saw Michigan State lose at Oregon. Illinois lost at Washington. Rutgers was able to upset Washington State, but that's been the exception to the rule. Even the Big 10 team in question here, Northwestern, lost at Cal.  Of course, this works "the other way" as well. Pac 12 teams traveling East have had their fair share of trouble. Like USC, who was beaten outright LY at Boston College, or UCLA failing to cover at Virginia. Heck, Colorado couldn't even cover against UMass.  I just think this is too many points for the favorite to be laying in a cross-country road trip.

Stanford lost a ton of close games in 2014 (three by a field goal), so don't be surprised to see a few nail-biters go their way this season. Might the first Saturday of the year be one of those? Twice in the last four years the Cardinal have played their first road game outside of the Pac 12.  In 2011, they drubbed Duke 44-14, but had a QB named Andrew Luck.  In 2013, they failed to cover as 20-pt favorites at Army. I do believe that the 11 AM local start time is going to be a problem for the road chalk in this one and while they have 13 returning starters, only four are on the defensive side of the ball.  By the way, as a road favorite, Stanford is just 4-4 straight up the last two seasons, not to mention 2-6 ATS.

N'western has gone an almost equally lousy 8-16 ATS overall the L2 seasons & lost some real heartbreakers in the process (vs. Ohio St, 2 yrs ago anyone?). But following LY's disappointing 5-7 SU campaign, Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats should be much improved in 2015. They have 14 returning starters (6 off, 8 def) and the added motivation of trying avoid a second consecutive season opening loss to a Pac 12 team. Previously, the team was unbeaten in season openers under Fitzgerald. I look for the Wildcats to be able to move the ball in this game as Stanford is looking to replace its entire D-line and secondary from last season. 8* Northwestern

10* Seattle (10:05 ET):  Little, if anything, is on the line this weekend in this battle of division also-rans. However, at least the Mariners have a little bit of "momentum" coming off surprising B2B wins over first place Houston.  That series win came w/o a start from either Felix Hernandez or Hisashi Iwakuma, which for Seattle, has to be taken as a major positive. The A's, meanwhile, are 0-2 in September after B2B losses to another AL West foe, the Angels. Trusting them at this point seems unwise considering a 58-76 record that includes a heinous 15-30 mark in one-run games. Seattle took two of three from them last week at Safeco Field & is 9-4 head to head this year vs. Oakland.

Starting this series opener for the M's will be Edgar Olmos, whose big league debut didn't go all that well Sunday as he yielded three runs in five innings. His biggest problem was five walks. Still though, Seattle was in position to win that game before ultimately losing in 11 innings to the White Sox.  Fortunately for Olmos, his offense has really been producing of late to the tune of a .293 average w/ 19 home runs the L11 games. They've averaged 5.5 rpg while going 7-4.  Oakland, just 7-14 its 21 overall, just allowed 20 runs and 33 hits in its last series and tonight's starter Aaron Brooks doesn't look like much of an answer.  He started four times in August and while three of those were quality (was shelled by Toronto), the team is just 2-2 w/ him on the mound.

Usually, the home team has somewhat of an advantage, but not with these two as Oakland has the worst home record in the entire American League, save for Seattle.  The A's have been the biggest money-burners in all of baseball this season (-25.5 units) w/ the bulk of that damage coming here at home.  They are essentially "in the red" in all situations this season, especially against lefties where they are just 13-25.  The Mariners are above .500 when taking on teams w/ a losing record and are 7-5 when taking the field w/ a day off. 10* Seattle

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): While the Indians are by no means "out of it" just yet, the Tribe certainly is "up against it" considering a six-game deficit in the Wild Card chase that also requires them to jump five other teams. So a sweep of long-time nemesis Detroit is almost imperative this weekend. Whether or not they pull that feat off is up for debate, but I do like Cleveland in tonight's series opener behind ace Corey Kluber. As has been discussed many times, this has been quite the "hard-luck" season for the Kluber, last year's Cy Young Award winner, as he owns a 10-18 team start record despite numbers not all that different from 2014 (3.41 ERA, 1.033 WHIP). But he won his last time out, and fortunately the Tigers are not playing well at all right now, plus they'll be sending Kyle Lobstein out to the bump.

Kluber's ERA & WHIP tell somewhat different stories about his last three starts. The former is a pedestrian-looking 4.12, the latter an excellent 0.966. What is the reason for such a discrepancy? Well, three starts ago, Kluber allowed six runs on six hits in 6 IP (despite a 9-1 KW ratio). Since then, he's allowed just four runs (three earned) on nine hits in 13 2/3 IP in a pair of quality starts. He took a perfect game into the sixth inning two starts ago vs. the Cubs, and then last time out won (in spite of allowing 2 HR's) against the Angels.  Also encouraging is the fact that the Cleveland bullpen has posted a 1.19 ERA the L7 games. The team had won six straight, including a big upset of David Price & Toronto on Monday, before dropping B2B games to the Blue Jays. This series represents a drop in class as the Tigers are out of contention.

Detroit has lost 11 of its last 13 games and quite frankly the results have been ugly. They've been outscored 94-42 during that stretch, including by an average of more than six runs per game their last seven w/ opponents averaging 9.0 rpg while batting a preposterous .359.  Friday starter Kyle Lobstein isn't likely to change those numbers, considering a woeful 7.36 ERA and 1.722 WHIP his L3 starts (0-3).  Surprisingly, Cleveland has a winning road record while Detroit has a losing one here at home. 8* Cleveland

8* Oakland (10:00 ET):  I went against the Raiders at home Sunday night and came out on top w/ a 30-23 win on Arizona. However, like the Cardinals did the week prior, I feel that the Oakland defense wasn't exactly giving 100 percent on the final drive, which resulted in an Arizona touchdown.  The Silver and Black led that game, 15-3 at halftime, and have outgained all three opponents this preseason.  Meanwhile, Seattle has played in three games decided by a total of four points, so I wouldn't want to be laying points w/ them, especially in a game like this where the result is so meaningless.  The underdog has more to prove in this one as the Raiders are a young team w/ players fighting for roster spots.  The Seahawks know their roster and just want to avoid injury. 

Now there is a rumor that QB Russell Wilson and the first team offense could be on the field, albeit for a very limited time, tonight.  But even if they do play, it won't be for long enough to have a lasting impact on the final result.  Seattle's offense hasn't looked very good this preseason anyway.  The defending NFC Champs have actually been outgained in each of their three games, including last week (386-222) in a 16-15 win at San Diego.  They've failed to cover both times as a favorite.  Note they'd be 0-3 if not for a somewhat miraculous Steven Hauschka 60-yard field goal at the end of the game last week.  Furthermore, their one touchdown came on a 67-yard punt return, an occurrence that cannot be counted on week to week. The fact that Tyler Lockett also had a kickoff return for a TD in the opener makes the Seahawks' 49 total pts scored in three games look even worse. In fact, the only other TD scored by Seattle came from the defense via an INT return. So, yes, the Seattle offense has yet to scored a touchdown this preseason.

Oakland, led by then-rookie QB Derek Carr, put up 41 points on a Seattle defense playing most of its regulars in last year's preseason finale.  These teams always meet in the fourth and final preseason game (L13 yrs) and usually it has been Seattle coming out on top (9-4 SU), but considering where the two teams are at on the NFL's pecking order right now, the end result figures to mean more to the Raiders.  QB's Christian Ponder and Matt McGloin are competing for a roster spot (Oakland keeping only 2 QB's), so I expect focused play from under center throughout the game.  8* Oakland

10* Idaho (9:00 ET):  In my conference previews, I listed BOTH Ohio and Idaho as potential "play on" teams for 2015, but only one can cover here and I happen to think this is a horrible spot for Ohio to be caught laying this many points.  Frank Solich's team has a lot of returning starters back, but has never been able to perform that well on the road and here will be facing an opponent they failed to cover against last year at home (won 36-23, -13).  The Bobcats' only two road wins last season were both by a field goal and came at the expense of MAC also-rans Kent State and Miami (OH).  Idaho was a misleading 1-10 SU in 2014 as they actually finished the season w/ more first downs than their opponents. Take the points here.

Idaho has actually won all of five games the past four seasons. All but one were here at home. I'm not saying the Vandals pull the outright upset here, but it should be pointed out that LY in Athens, they trailed by only five w/ just under seven minutes to go. Sure enough, they had the first down edge in the game, 23-19.  Turnovers were a big story in the game as Idaho QB Matt Linehan threw three costly interceptions, one of which was returned to the team's own five-yard line.  I expect Linehan, who worked with Tony Romo in the offseason, to improve upon an uneven freshman campaign. He looked very good in the team's spring game, for whatever that's worth. The Kibbie Dome is unique and I expect the Vandals to play better here in 2015.

Ohio is just 4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS its L11 road games. They also have a much bigger game on deck, the home opener vs. Marshall, which is a revenge game for them, so the dreaded "look ahead" could be in play here as well.  The Bobcats did not beat a single team w/ a winning record last year and I think it's very dangerous for them to be laying this many points on the road. Yes, it's a more veteran team than a season ago, but that team did lose five times by 18 or more points.  They are not built to win big on the road, so I'll fade them against what should be a very fired up home dog.  10* Idaho

8* Michigan (8:30 ET):  While the reaction to the hiring of Jim Harbaugh at Michigan has been predictable, it should not be understated. This is clearly the best coaching move by any major College Football program since Urban Meyer was hired by rival Ohio State. And considering Meyer's predecessor Jim Tressel (nevermind the forgettable season w/ interim lame duck Luke Fickell) actually won a National Championship in Columbus, bringing Harbaugh to Ann Arbor could be considered the biggest coaching upgrade since Nick Saban at Alabama. I bring the names of Meyer and Saban up because Harbaugh's belongs with them as the best in the sport. He'll have Michigan ready to go in the season opener & I'm taking the points.

Some may point to Harbaugh's arrival being overhyped and that he has a lot of work to do here still.  That may be true but the cupboard is not bare in Ann Arbor by any means. While Brady Hoke was clearly not the "(Michigan) man for the job" he did recruit well.  The Wolverines' win total declined all four years under Hoke, but quietly LY's defense ranked seventh in the country in yards allowed. While the starting QB has not been named publicly, the team itself knows, so that is no concern.  The team also figures to greatly improve upon LY's dreadful -16 turnover margin. That included a -3 in a 26-10 home loss to Utah last year. So this is a revenge game to boot, right off the bat for Harbaugh, whose Stanford teams were always known for upsets. By the way, Michigan is a horrible 1-8 SU as an underdog the L3 years, but also 5-4 ATS. They're due for some upsets to go their way this year (lost outright three times as chalk last year). Harbaugh covered over 58% of all games as head coach of Stanford and the 49ers in the NFL.

Utah is no slouch, I grant you that. The Utes not only beat Michigan in "The Big House" last season, but also finished 9-4 SU. A case could certainly be made that this is Kyle Whittingham's best team since the move to the Pac 12. But be aware that the 2014 squad was somewhat lucky to go 5-2 SU in games decided by six points or less, not to mention they were actually dead last in the Pac 12 in yards per game differential (-84.2).  They definitely won some games they "shouldn't have."  Their best offensive player, RB Devontae Booker, ran for only 34 yards last year against this Michigan defense & as a team the Utes averaged only 2.2 yards per carry.  Honestly, I think a Michigan upset is more likely than a blowout loss here.  8* Michigan

10* Under Braves/Nationals (7:05 ET):  Washington was kind to me last night, coming through as an underdog (I bet them early, before the StL pitching change) against St. Louis in a 4-3 road win. But w/ the money line so high here, I have to stay away from the Nats tonight, especially considering the heavy losses they've endured at the betting window throughout the regular season. But that's fine, as I really like the total anyway as they host a terrible Atlanta ballclub that has averaged just 2.6 runs per game its last seven (all losses). I'll call for Washington to surprisingly struggle to score runs as well, thus I'm looking at the Under here, which has cashed in five of the past six meetings between the two NL East rivals.

None of those last six meetings have seen more than seven total runs scored in any game.  In all six, the losing team has scored one run or been shutout.  The one Over was a 6-1 Washington victory when the total was low (6.5). Here, we're getting a more advantageous number, due in large part to the Braves' recent pitching woes.  But over their last 17 games, Atlanta has been held to three runs or fewer 12 times.  In the last series (vs. Miami), they were held to four runs in three games. They've been held to all of 19 runs during their eight-game losing streak. The one break Atlanta is getting here is that Washington will likely be w/o its best hitter, Bryce Harper, who was pulled from last night's game due to a glute injury.

Harper is having a career year, batting .331 w/ 31 HR's and 78 RBI's.  In the 11 games vs. the Braves, that line is .372/3/10.  So his absence clearly makes Matt Wisler's job a lot easier.  Atlanta's starter certainly has been embattled of late, but the last time he faced Washington, he blanked them over 5 1/3 innings.  The Braves also cannot continue to give up runs at the pace they have been recently.  Washington, one of the top Over teams this year, has seen the Over go 7-1-2 L10 games, but I was on that one Under and this seems like a similar situation to "strike." Jordan Zimmerman has a 2.58 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 15 home starts this season. He threw 7 2/3 scoreless innings the last time he faced the Braves. 10* Under Braves/Nationals

10* Philadelphia (7:00 ET): It's clear that there's one team trying more than the rest this preseason and the team in question is Chip Kelly's Eagles, who are 3-0 SU/ATS having outscored opponents by 62 points. The offense has yet to take its "foot off the gas pedal," scoring 36, 40 and 39 points.  They came into camp w/ four QB's, all of them well known, those being Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley and Tim Tebow, a quartet that might otherwise be better known as "peaked in College Rob Lowe."  But there's no doubt that, save for Barkley, they've been successful here in August. Bradford and Sanchez are locks for the roster, so tonight it will be Barkley and Tebow auditioning for that final spot.

The Eagles scored in each of the first 10 quarters of preseason.  They had 39 pts at halftime last week in Green Bay w/ Bradford & Sanchez directing five scoring drives between them. However, they've also done plenty of scoring when their top two QB's aren't in the game. Consider that in the first two preseason games, they outscored foes 76-27 and that was w/ Bradford playing only one series.  Clearly, when you average 38.3 points and 430 yards per game, and doing so w/ tremendous consistency, you care about winning. Motivation is at its nadir in Week 4 of the preseason, but I expect Chip Kelly to be one of the few coaches who cares about the final result. The battle for the third QB spot on the roster will be the driving force.

As for the Jets, they've won two straight since dropping their opener, 23-3 @ Detroit.  It was 28-18 over the rival Giants last week.  But, they've lost three of the last four years to the Eagles in the preseason finale, including 37-10 in 2014.  The Jets' QB situation, one of the worst in the league to begin with, is even less attractive here w/ journeyman Matt Flynn (signed Aug 19th) expected to start and his backup is Josh Johnson was brought into camp even later (Aug 29th).   The only other option is rookie Bryce Petty, who is also not ready.  The Jets are -72.4 yards per game in the preseason.  Over the last three seasons, the Eagles are 7-2 ATS as preseason favorites. They'll want this meaningless game more. 10* Philadelphia

8* New York (7:05 ET):  The Liberty are still hunting down the top overall seed, not just in the Eastern Conference, but in the entire league. They enter this game at 21-8 SU/21-7-1 ATS, both currently the best records of any team.  Consider that only two other teams, Tulsa and Atlanta, are above 51.7% ATS.  New York is 3.5 games up on the rest of the pack in the Eastern Conference and 1.5 games of West-leading Minnesota for the top overall spot. They are two wins away from clinching the #1 seed in the East. Said Tina Charles, "It's definitely in our minds that we want to get the No. 1 seed." I don't think that the linesmakers have the Liberty favored by nearly enough over a Sky team that is likely to be w/o its two top scorers.

Part of the reason New York is sitting pretty in the catbird's seat is a 3-0 SU/ATS head to head record vs. second place Chicago.  The last time these teams met was here in MSG & the Liberty came out on top by 21.  Despite that result, there's been little to no adjustment in the line. They also won by eight and 14 points margins in the Windy City.  The league's top defensive team (70.2 points per game allowed), they held the Sky (league's highest scoring team at 82.5 PPG) to just 63 pts in each of the last two meetings.  Since the start of August, NY has won 9 of 11 overall, both SU and ATS, most recently prevailing over Atlanta in OT, one of the two games they failed to cover. Only once all season, all the way back in early June, has the Liberty failed to cover in B2B games.

When New York beat Chicago here at MSG, 84-63, back on August 11th, the Sky were playing w/o leading scorer Elena Delle Donne. That is likely to be the case again here as Delle Donne has been held out each of the L2 games due to a foot injury.  With a playoff spot already clinched, there's no reason to risk her health. Also potentially out here for the Sky is second leading scorer Cappie Pondexter, who also missed Sunday's game, a four-point loss to Connecticut.  That's 38.9 points per game potentially missing from the Chicago lineup. Both Delle Donne and Pondexter are currently listed as questionable. The Sky's last four games have been an outright loss (as 9-pt home chalk) to Connecticut and three 2-pt victories. So they haven't been dominant of late. 8* New York

10* South Carolina (6:00 ET):  Ah yes, our first College Football pick of the year! South Carolina surely remembers its opener from last season as they came into 2014 w/ high hopes, only to get humiliated at home by Texas A&M (who wound up having a disappointing season in its own right), 52-28 as 10-pt home favorites.  This year, there's not nearly the same amount of fanfare coming out of Columbia, nor will the Gamecocks be opening at home against a SEC foe. Rather, we have a neutral site game (Charlotte) against neighboring North Carolina out of the ACC.  This time around, I think USC is an incredible bargain as they are only two years removed from an 11-win season that started w/ a 27-10 beatdown of these Tar Heels. Lay the points.

Defense was a major disappointment in both Carolinas last year, but particularly in the North.  UNC allowed a ghastly 39 points and 497 yards per game a season ago, which is why former Auburn coach Gene Chizik was brought on as the new DC.  While there's only "one way to go" here, improvement will take time. The Tar Heels allowed 27+ points in ALL but one game last season, including 40 to Rutgers in a bowl loss. That was the sixth time they allowed 40 or more pts, which is horrifying.  It also doesn't help their cause that this game is being played away from home. In three years under HC Larry Fedora, UNC has just seven road/neutral site victories. The program is also 2-10 SU since '03 in road/neutral site openers, including 0-3 SU/ATS under Fedora (beaten 70-41 by East Carolina last year).

I typically like to "buy" when expectations are low for a traditional power and that is the case here w/ Steve Spurrier and South Carolina. The "Ol' Ball Coach" should get more out of this team than the 2014 squad, even though he has only 12 returning starters. Eight of them are on the defensive side of the ball, however, and their D wasn't nearly as bad as UNC's was LY. Spurrier is 4-1 SU/ATS when the line is three points or less (either way) the L3 seasons + the Gamecocks have won 9 of their L10 non-conference games, including a bowl win over Miami at the end of last season. That same Miami team beat North Carolina by 27 in the regular season. 10* South Carolina

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (1:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the White Sox +1.5.   Minnesota will be going for a sweep Thursday afternoon after shutting out Chicago last night, 3-0.  Rookie Miguel Sano homered again, plus starter Tommy Milone turned in seven strong innings.  The White Sox finished the game w/ only three hits. While I'll concede that the Twins are the one in playoff contention and the White Sox are out of it, today's result is not as formulamatic as some might think.  I still have my doubts about this Twins club, starter Kyle Gibson among them, and how long can Jeff Samardzija's losing go on for? I see the visitors doing no worse than a one-run loss here.

The White Sox have lost the last six times Samardzija has taken the hill. Five of those have seen him pitch poorly.  Similarly, the team has not found much success this season at Target Field, going 1-8 w/ a scoring differential of -40. But wouldn't you know it; their lone victory here came w/ Samardzija on the bump.  That day, back in late June, saw the former Notre Dame wideout deliver seven strong innings while allowing just two runs and striking out seven. He's now 2-0 w/ a 3.27 ERA in three starts vs. the Twins this season. August clearly wasn't his month, but in the past he's proven himself to be a more than capable starter.  I think Samardzija will find more offensive support than what Carlos Rodon received last night as the White Sox had scored six runs in three straight games prior to Wednesday.

Similar to Samardzija, Twins' starter Gibson has had his fair share of recent issues. While he didn't allow any runs his last time out, he needed 111 pitches just to make it through 5 2/3 innings and walked three batters.  Previously, he'd gone 0-3 in his last seven starts and that was w/ a 7.22 ERA.  Take note that four of those games were decided by exactly one run.  Though Minnesota has won 10 of its last 12 games, they STILL are "in the red" when it comes to run differential for the season.   8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

10* Texas (10:10 ET):  I admit that the Rangers have given me a lot of problems over the last two weeks or so, but the bottom line is that they have emerged as a clear-cut contender in the wide open AL Wild Card race and actually are in playoff position right now (one game ahead of Minnesota) after winning 14 of their last 19 games.  Something else that's undeniable right now is that Cole Hamels seems to be getting used to his Rangers' uniform. This will be his sixth start since being traded from Philadelphia and incredibly he's reduced his runs allowed by exactly one w/ each passing turn in the rotation. This culminated in his finest effort w/ Texas to date, a 4-1 win over Baltimore last Friday, where he allowed only two hits over eight innings in a CG effort. Might a shutout be in the cards tonight? Possibly.

The Rangers themselves were shut out on Monday, losing 7-0 in San Diego, but bounced back w/ an 8-6 win last night.  Though outhit in the game (14-12), things weren't as close as they seem as the Padres scored two runs on two hits in the bottom of the ninth.  San Diego has been trending in the opposite direction lately w/ six losses in its last nine games.  They are just 3-10 this season as a home underdog of +100 to +125. I think one could best sum up the recent fortunes of these two clubs by pointing towards Elvis Andrus' steal of home last night. Texas has been one of MLB's most profitable clubs all season, currently +23.7 units, which is third, trailing only Kansas City and St. Louis.

Not only is Hamels' continued improvement a positive sign, but so too is the fact he's now back facing a familiar National League opponent that he's absolutely dominated through the years.  As a member of the Phillies, Hamels went 6-0 w/ a 1.24 ERA his L8 starts vs. San Diego and is 5-0 w/ a 1.47 ERA his L6 starts here at Petco Park. September also seems to be Hamels' "time of year" as he is 21-12 all-time (2.93 ERA) in 47 career starts this month, including a 1.96 ERA in six 2014 outings. Ian Kennedy looks like a formidable foe, but is 0-2 w/ a 8.10 ERA lifetime vs. the Rangers. All his recent success has done here is keep the line down, which is good. 10* Texas

10* Washington (8:15 ET):  Can you believe the Nationals aren't going to make the playoffs? No postseason in the Nation's Capital is looking more and more realistic w/ each passing loss the club suffers. Last night's 8-5 loss came in the final at-bat and was pretty indicative of this very disappointing season for the Nats. But I'm not yet ready to "throw in the towel" on them, at least in this series, as they'll send Max Scherzer out to the mound for the ESPN cameras. Despite ranking third among qualifiers in WHIP (0.927), Scherzer somehow is stuck w/ a very unlucky 13-13 team start record (0-4 L4!). I say he's due to turn it around, even though his recent performances have been less than inspiring.

ICYMI, Washington had a 4-0 lead last night, but were unable to hold it and lost the game on a Brandon Moss' 3-run, walkoff home run.  St. Louis scored a total of five runs over the last two innings to beat the Nats for a ninth straight time here at home.  Washington had the edge in hits Tuesday, 12-8, but starter Joe Ross didn't help matters by allowing three runs in the bottom of the third and then the team failed in the field by making two critical errors in the bottom of the eighth. That allowed the Cardinals to score twice in the inning despite managing just one hit. Note that on Monday, Washington also blew a late 5-3 lead en route to an 8-5 loss.  There, the Cards scored five times in the bottom of the seventh w/ two outs.  One could certainly argue that the Nats should have taken at least one, if not both, of the games in this series so far.

Scherzer has never dropped four consecutive starts, something he's hoping to avoid tonight. Remember that this is a former Cy Young winner that prior to the All-Star Break went 8+ innings four times in a five-start stretch, including a no-hitter!  The second half has been less kind (despite a series of inferior opponents) and he's been a huge money loser for bettors, including his last time out when he & the team were -275 money line favorites against Miami and lost 4-3. But this is really good value on him, a "buy low" situation if you will & I see him reverting back to "old form" tonight. 8* Washington

9* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET):  Minnesota won a back & forth series opener last night, 8-6, thanks to scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth. Of course, they had a little bit of help too, namely a pair of Chicago errors in that frame. Having gotten by Chris Sale, the Twins have to be feeling pretty good about themselves, but I don't think they're "out of the woods" by any means yet in this series. Only one game out of the Wild Card, this club continues to be pretty fortunate to be in contention as they've had only one winning month all season (were 14-14 in August) and they've been outscored on the season. Their home record is impressive, but Wednesday starter Tommy Milone (3.90 ERA, 1.289 WHIP) is not & I think the Sox "steal one" here.

I concede that the White Sox have struggled this season at Target Field, going 1-7.  But the Twins have yet to face hard-throwing lefty Carlos Rodon this year and the southpaw comes into tonight off four consecutive quality starts. Even better is his 0.98 ERA his L4 road starts. Last time out, at home, he allowed just two runs and three hits in 4-2 win over Seattle. Rodon walks a few too many batters for my liking, but has mitigated that by allowing just 17 hits in his last 28 IP.  The team has gone 12-7 in his 19 starts this season, a good sign, plus Minnesota has had its fair share of struggles against LH starters, averaging just 4.1 runs per game.  The White Sox offense has scored six runs in three straight games.

Did you know Minnesota has been a ML favorite in only 21 games ALL SEASON? That has led them to becoming one of baseball's most profitable teams (+19.1 units), but they are a slight favorite here, which means there's value in going against them. Milone was hit hard his last time out, giving up five runs in 5 1/3 IP, marking the fourth time in six starts that the team lost w/ him on the mound.  While he's got solid career marks vs. Chicago, he was lucky to get away w/ allowing only two runs the last time he faced them considering he also gave up 10 hits.  Milone has somehow managed to go 5-2 here at home in spite of a 4.08 ERA and 1.425 WHIP. Eventually, the Twins luck has to run out.  9* Chi White Sox

8* Over Mystics/Mercury (3:35 ET): Due to recent results (from both sides), we have a very low total here.  In fact, in doing research on both teams' respective seasons, it is the lowest O/U line for any Phoenix game  while Washington had just one lower, all the way back on June 23rd and that game proceeded to go Over the total by more than 25 points! I think we have something similar on tap Wednesday afternoon as a little "market correction" is in order. Both teams have been scoring well under their season averages of late, including in a 71-63 Mystics win over the Mercury on August 28th. If even one of them gets "back to normal" for today's rematch, then this game is going to go Over the total. 

Phoenix is clearly not the same dominant team they were last season.  They've dropped two straight and five of seven coming into today.  In all five losses during that stretch, they've been held under 70 points. This is a team that still averages 74.8 points per game this season though, 78.1 at home.  Yet, with the decline in scoring, the team is 7-1-2 Under its last 10 games.  But consider that the average total for those games is significantly higher than what the number is here. When playing at Washington last week, the Mercury missed their final six shots and turned the ball over 20 times. It was low-scoring second half for them as well (26 pts), which was also the case Sunday in Minnesota when they were even worse (22 pts).  The key here is they're back at home where their scoring average rises significantly.

Washington is also off a dreadful shooting night, one that saw them make just 36.4% of their FG attempts in a 69-59 loss to non-contender Seattle.  The Under is now 6-1 their seven games overall and 10-3 in all road games this season. But their average score for the season is 73.6-70.8, which would work out to an Over here.  They scored only 20 pts in the second half in Sunday's loss, which would be nearly impossible to duplicate. Again, this number I feel is an overreaction to recent results. Each team's full body of work through the course of the season suggests this game could easily fly Over the total.  The Over is 6-1 in Phoenix's last seven games vs. a team w/ a winning record. 8* Over Mystics/Mercury

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET):  The Halos lost ANOTHER road game last night (now 3-17 L20 away from home!) as their fall from grace continues.  The A's beat them 11-5 Monday, LA's ninth loss in its L11 games overall. Los Angeles has been as bad any club in the league over the last month or so, going from 12 games over .500 and first place in the division to below .500 and in third presently.  Their 10-23 record since July 28th is in fact MLB's worst. Yet, despite ALL of that, they are still in contention for a Wild Card in the wide open American League, still only 3.5 games out. You have to figure they'll turn it around shortly and w/ Oakland making a pitching change here, they have such an opportunity. 

The last time the Angels won a game was Thursday when they had Matt Shoemaker on the mound. Shoemaker will get the call again this evening.  He was brilliant against the Tigers, delivering 7 1/3 scoreless innings of one-hit ball.  Granted, he'd been awful in two start before that.  But consider that at one point he was working on a 20+ inning scoreless streak across three starts immediately following the All-Star Break.  While widely inconsistent, Shoemaker has allowed 2 ER in 11 of his last 16 outings. Five times during that stretch he's gone at least six innings w/o allowing a single run.  In four starts against Oakland this year, he hasn't exactly been at his best. But consider the last two times he faced them, Sonny Gray was pitching for the A's.

Instead of Chris Bassitt, it will now be Cody Martin going for Oakland as this will be his big league debut. In Triple-A Nashville, Martin was hardly impressive, posting a 5.33 ERA in 10 starts. Even skipper Bob Melvin said "not sure what to expect" in regards to him.  The A's have won three straight, but given that you'd have to go back to the end of June to find their last win streak of four or more games, it's tough to see the trend of them winning continuing. In fact, they have only two win streaks of longer than three games ALL SEASON and both came in June. They've been extraordinarily unlucky in 2015, which makes it difficult to trust them moving forward. At -23.2 units, they're MLB's biggest money losers at the betting window. 10* LA Angels

8* Pittsburgh (8:10 ET):  This one looks to be a steal w/ Gerrit Cole pitching for the visitors against a Milwaukee team that's 0 for 9 this season as a home underdog in the +125 to +150 range on the money line.   The Pirates, off a rare loss, had previously won seven of eight as they continue their push to host the NL Wild Card Game for a third consecutive year. Currently, 29 games above .500, they're sitting pretty in spite of Sunday's shutout loss. Shockingly, they were swept in their last visit here to Miller Park, but I like the sense of urgency in moving their ace up a day. Cole did not pitch in that last series vs. Milwaukee, a team that's well out of contention and has nothing to play for.

After a couple of subpar outings, Cole has rebounded over his last two to allow only one earned run in 14 1/3 innings. His 2.13 road ERA places him in the top five in all of baseball.  Last time out, he dominated Miami for seven innings, giving up only five hits. It was smart to bump him up a day as not only will he now pitch Sunday night vs. St. Louis, but he'll avoid the one team that has given him problems all year (Cincinnati), next Monday.  In six career starts, Cole has a 3.00 ERA vs. Milwaukee.  Behind him is one of baseball's best bullpens, one that has the third best ERA (trailing only St. Louis & KC) and the most saves + holds (128) this season. Additionally, Pirates' relievers lead the league w/ an 83 percent strand rate on inherited runners.

So, the Brew Crew should definitely struggle to score in this one, we know that.  But what about the fact that their starter Jimmy Nelson has actually performed quite well against the Pirates in four starts this season, going 3-1 w/ a 1.85 ERA?  Well, turning to Cole on the mound will obviously somewhat counteract Nelson, plus the Brewers' starter is coming off a terrible outing where he allowed five runs in just 3 1/3 innings at Cleveland and walked eight batters. Nelson has yet to go up against Cole in any of his four previous starts vs. the Bucs.  Additionally, Milwaukee is an opponent that Pittsburgh needs to take care of. Having been swept in the previous series, revenge will be theirs Tuesday night. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Under Sun/Fever (7:05 ET):  We're coming down the "home stretch" of the WNBA regular season and neither of these teams have been playing well of late.  For Indiana, despite an ill-timed three-game losing streak, they should be fine as they're still in third place in the Eastern Conference, 4.5 games clear of fifth place Connecticut, whom they host tonight (top four in each conference make the playoffs). The Sun, who just snapped a seven-game losing streak, are in far more dire straits as they are one loss or one Washington win away from being eliminated from playoff contention altogether. With both teams struggling, I'm going to abstain from playing the side and instead look at the total.  Take the Under.

Connecticut took advantage of a Chicago team that had just clinched a playoff spot the night before and was playing w/o Elena Delle Donna Sunday as they pulled off a 72-68 upset as nine-point dogs.  Note, however, that the Sun trailed in that game by eight points through three quarters and had just 47 pts.   Twice in their previous three games, they were held below their season average of 75.9 PPG, including a dreadful 57-point effort on the road at Atlanta.  This team is still w/o its co-leading scorer, Alex Bentley (14.7 PPG), and while Kelsey Bone has been able to pick up the slack the L2 games w/ 47 points, I do not believe that to be sustainable. The team has scored just 70 and 73 pts the last two meetings vs. the Fever.

Indiana is looking to sweep the season series here and in terms of the Under, the key is obviously Connecticut holding up defensively.  Fortunately, Indiana shot just 38.6% from the floor its last time out (lost 76-70 at Tulsa) and the offensive numbers would have been a whole lot worse had Tamika Catchings not gone for 22 pts on 7 of 10 shooting. The other four starters combined to miss 28 of 41 FG attempts. Also, their opponents made 17 of 19 free throws, something we should not have to worry about w/ the Sun, who are dead last in the league in terms of free throw percentage (73.8%). While the Over is 12-3 in Indiana home games this year (6-0 L6), I see this one staying Under. 10* Under Sun/Fever

8* Run Line Colorado (3:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rockies +1.5.  The home team pulled off a stunning rally last night, scoring four runs in the bottom of the ninth, for a 5-4 victory.  I look for that to have a carryover effect of sorts into Tuesday's day-night doubleheader.  It's not like Colorado didn't have its fair share of chances earlier in the game; entering the final frame they had previously gone 0 for 15 w/ RISP. Remember, at Coors Field, the Rockies are a far more respectable ballclub, at least offensively where they average 5.4 runs per game.  Giving them an additional 1.5 to work with seems like a nice luxury to have and we only have to lay minimal juice.

Colorado, mired in last place in the division, has actually won two straight and four of its last six. One of their two losses during that time was by one run. In what's been an awful season, they've taken 20 such defeats (one-run); only three teams in the entire National League have more. Ironically, one of those is Arizona, who has a league-high 22.  Game 1 starter Yohan Flande should keep his team in this one as he's 2-0 in six starts since joining the rotation w/ a 4-2 team start record and one of the losses came by one run. Flande's two longest outings of the year both came here at home and the last time he started at Coors brought about his best start of the year where he allowed just two runs and three hits over seven innings in a huge 3-2 upset of the Nationals (+180 on the money line). 

Arizona was looking like a fringe playoff contender for awhile, but has dropped seven of its last eight to fall five games below .500 and into fourth place in the division.  Last night's loss I feel will be difficult to overcome. Pat Corbin gets the baseball here in Game 1 and while he has pitched relatively well in the past vs. Colorado, this will be his first time starting in Coors Field since 2013.  Corbin's last road start saw him last all of two innings, bringing his ERA and WHIP in five road starts to 5.14 and 1.524 WHIP respectively.  No worse than one-run loss for the home team here. 8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5)

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET):  This shapes up as the biggest series of the season in the National League West as the first place Dodgers (3.5 games up) host the second place Giants. Some might say that this is a pretty rough spot for LA as they not only had to play Sunday night, but were no-hit to boot, for the second time in their last nine games. It is worrisome that the Dodgers have struggled against other top teams this season (2-8 vs. StL/PIT), including a bad 3-9 record vs. the rival Giants. But considering the team had won five in a row going into last night & is 6-3 this season following a shutout loss, I like their chances of bouncing back at home where they've gone a very strong 44-21 this season. 

Most of the Dodgers starting rotation, save for likely Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, is in the red this season.  Brett Anderson is one of those, but still sports a winning team start record overall at 13-12.  This team probably has more losses as a favorite of -200 or higher (7) than any other in baseball, but that's also because no team finds itself in that price range more often.  Consider that despite being 72-57 on the year, the Dodgers are -11.8 units at the betting window. But they're certainly not overvalued here, in fact, I'd say they are undervalued. Some of that has to do w/ this year's struggles vs. the Giants, but note that in his last start vs. the World Series champs, Anderson allowed just one run on five hits and that was in this park. 

After being on the wrong end of a no-hitter ten days ago, Anderson allowed only three runs (all unearned) on five hits in a 7-4 win at Cincinnati.  That was his third straight quality outing. The Giants' lineup isn't exactly in top form right now as they've scored more than five runs just two times in the L14 games. San Fran is off B2B home losses to St. Louis as well, including one shutout.  They'll give the baseball to Jake Peavy, who has both a 5.50 ERA and 1.555 WHIP his L3 starts.  What makes tonight's game so critical for Dodger Blue is that Tuesday they will have to go up against Madison Bumgarner. Beating Peavy tonight is a necessity in terms of preserving their division lead. 8* LA Dodgers

9* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): One of these teams is in playoff contention and the other is the Red Sox. Though we're in Fenway, I'm shocked that we can grab the Yankees at this price, especially since the Bronx Bombers are one day removed from putting a 20-spot on the board as they finished off a sweep of lowly Atlanta, on the road.  That marked the second time in three games that the Pinstripes scored at least 15 runs!  Sunday's victory kept the Yanks 1.5 games back of red-hot Toronto in the AL East, but equally important is that they remain securely in the lead for the Wild Card. Boston, on the other hand, has been in last place for much of the season and fell 5-4 yday to the Mets. The Yanks are 8-4 vs. the Sox this year, including a sweep here at Fenway back in May. Go w/ them in the series opener.

While the offense was hitting the cover off the ball over the weekend, Ivan Nova was on the wrong end of a decision where one team scored 15 runs his last time out. He gave up seven in an eventual 15-1 loss to Houston last Tuesday. But seeing as that was his worst outing since rejoining the rotation back in late-June, I expect him to bounce back tonight. Nova also should get plenty of help from his offense, which like I said was on fire over the weekend and should be getting Alex Rodriguez back in the lineup tonight. Four times this season, the Yankees have scored eight or more against Red Sox pitching. They clearly are the better of the two teams this season.

Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched relatively well at home of late, but his team simply isn't very good. Now, Rodriguez did come out on top of Nova here at Fenway back on July 11th. Then, he was outdueled by CC Sabathia earlier this month. But did you know Boston is now just 11-20 vs. New York over the L3 seasons?  With the reshuffling of the front office, this is clearly a team w/ its collective eye on 2016 while the Yankees are in the midst of a pennant race right now. The Sox are among the bottom seven in all of baseball in net units (-13.63) while the Yankees, not as overvalued as they've been in past seasons, have turned a slight profit. The better team is way undervalued here. 9* NY Yankees

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): The race for the American League's second Wild Card spot remains WIDE open w/ six teams separated by 5.5 games. Among them are these two, the Rays & Orioles, despite the fact that both have been struggling of late.  Tampa Bay (lost 5 of 7) won Sunday, 3-2 over Kansas City, pulling themselves one-half game ahead of Baltimore, who is in much worse shape right now w/ a 1-10 record its L11 games. A return to Camden Yards would seem to be beneficial to the O's in their attempt to "right the ship," but the key to this series opener is that the Rays will have their ace, Chris Archer, on the hill.  Maybe Baltimore turns things around later in the series, but considering their recent struggles, it's highly unlikely they'd turn things around against Archer.

Archer has been very impressive in seven of his last eight outings. His final numbers from last Wednesday's start in Minnesota somewhat undersell what a good job he did as he struck out 12 batters over six innings. Though charged w/ four runs allowed, Archer was not in the game when the Twins scored the go-ahead runs. It was also the third time in his last four trips to the mound that he registered 10 or more K's. Of his 105 pitches, 66 went for strikes including 15 of 29 on the first pitch he threw to hitters. He now has a massive 217-43 KW ratio for the season and in nearly half of his starts (13 of 27), he's allowed 1 or 0 ER.  This is a very good pitcher, deserving of a far better record. There are only 12 starters in all of MLB w/ 20+ starts and an ERA below 3.00 and WHIP below 1.100. Archer is among them.

If Archer does have to depart early again, I also feel more confident in a Rays' bullpen that shutout the Royals for three innings in yday's win. Furthermore, Baltimore has really been struggling at the plate as of late, averaging just 2.7 runs their L11 games while batting a collective .216.  Against Rays pitching this year, they're averaging 3.2 rpg w/ a team batting average of .208.  Starter Wei-Yen Chen, who allowed 10 hits in his most recent start, may struggle here against a Tampa Bay lineup that is now 23-14 vs. LH starters after Sunday's victory. Despite being 4-0 his L7 starts, Chen has a 4.08 ERA during that time.  10* Tampa Bay

8* Arizona (8:00 ET):  We all know that this is "dress rehearsal week," meaning that the starters will see their most playing time of the entire preseason. Similar to a play I made on Friday w/ Detroit over Jacksonville, we have a more talented team in a price range they'd never find themselves in if this were the regular season. Granted, that can be said for many of these games throughout the preseason, but this week it's a big deal because this is as close to the regular season as we're getting this month.  The Cardinals, who are 0-2 this preseason and off a last second loss at home to San Diego last week, should come in pretty hungry for a win and that'll be enough against a Raiders team that still has plenty of holes to fill.

Oakland has been a part of two pretty pedestrian games thus far, first winning 1st year HC Jack Del Rio's home debut, 18-3 over St. Louis, which is when I took them, only to come back and lose last week, 20-12 at Minnesota.  It seems no matter who is the coach, the Silver and Black always find a way to lead the league in penalties and last week was no different as the team was flagged 13 times for 106 yards, which is a bad sign moving forward. I still am not sold on second year QB Derek Carr. While it's nice to know a team's starters could play beyond halftime, the fact is the Raiders are still one of the two or three least talented teams in the entire league. It doesn't really help when the other team is doing the same thing and has more talent than you.

Arizona ran into a hot backup QB in its opener, Kansas City's Chase Daniel, who threw for three touchdowns in a 34-19 come from behind victory. Note that the Cardinals actually led that game 10-0 after one quarter as Carson Palmer was 4 of 4 for 77 yards on a touchdown drive. The Cards won't have to worry about any kind of backup QB getting hot here as behind Carr is Vikings washout Christian Ponder.  Last week brought another strong start (led San Diego 6-0 after one quarter) and if it wasn't for a missed XP, they would have won the game. Palmer again threw a TD pass in limited action. You get the feeling that after tying the game last week, 19-19, neither team wanted OT, so the Cardinals may have "let" (gasp) the Chargers get into position for the GW field goal.  They'll finish the deal this week. 8* Arizona

8* Indiana (4:35 ET):  It has been quite the roller coaster season for Tulsa to this point. The franchise, which will be relocating to Dallas next season, opened a "Shocking" (pardon the pun) 8-1, but a season-ending injury to Skylar Diggins really turned things for the worse as the team would go on to drop 13 of its next 15 games! But out of nowhere, they've come back to win four straight, three of those as dogs, including wins over the Eastern Conference leading Liberty and defending league champ Mercury. But I'm not buying them as being able to sustain this current run. Today, they host Indiana, who's off B2B narrow losses after winning six straight (and 9 of 10) themselves. This is a really great value (on the Fever), I think.

Tulsa is fortunate to play in the horrible Western Conference where currently only two teams are above .500. Even after going 2-13 SU over a 15-game stretch, the Shock never found themselves in danger of dropping out of playoff contention. In fact, they've incredibly never dropped below third place and entering Sunday have a very comfortable six-game lead over fifth place Seattle.  A 76-66 home win over fourth place Los Angeles really helped their cause Friday night, though it should be pointed out that it was the second consecutive win where their opponent shot better than they did.  Remember that this is a franchise that has not had a winning season since '09.  This win streak has led to too much respect from the linesmakers here, in my opinion.

Indiana is also likely to make the playoffs over in the Eastern Conference, though they're in danger of dropping into fourth place following the back to back losses. They blew leads in both games; a 12-pt advantage Wednesday against Los Angeles and then a six-point lead going into the fourth quarter Friday vs. Atlanta.  The fact that both games were at home really hurts. But there's no reason to believe they can't turn it around as previously they'd won 9 of 10 w/ seven of those victories coming by double digits.  I expect the Fever to win their fifth straight on the road this afternoon. 8* Indiana

8* Run Line Oakland (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Athletics +1.5.  These poor A's.  Were it not for the Blue Jays (who, according to run differential, should have an even better record), it would be a second straight season in Oakland that the team would be the biggest underachiever in terms of Pythagorean expectation. Last year's team was still able to sneak into the playoffs, but that's simply not going to happen this year despite being one of only six American League teams to have outscored its opponents over the course of this season. The good news here is that they did win yday, 3-2 over Arizona, and w/ Jesse Chavez on the hill have a good shot at making it two straight.

How can a team w/ a positive run differential possibly be 18 games below .500 at the same time?  In the case of the A's, that answer is easy. They've gone a horrifying 15-30 in one-run games this season and remember that includes a win last night.  That's the worst win percentage in one run games in either league as well as the most losses. So right away, you can see the value the run line presents in this situation.  Last night saw the A's blow an early 2-0 lead before winning the game on a Stephen Vogt home run in the top of the eighth. The previous night also saw them blow an early 2-0 lead.  So that's why I'm going w/ the run line here; it's difficult to trust the A's, although I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them pick up the "W" here.

Embodying Oakland's unlucky season is the plight of starter Jesse Chavez. Sandwiched in between Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber (think about that company) for most net units lost among all starters this season, Chavez (-10.6) has pitched much better than his record indicates.  Case in point, he has a 1.071 WHIP his L3 starts even after allowing six runs his last time out. However, I expect him to bounce back here against an Arizona lineup which has averaged only 2.7 runs per game in dropping five of its last six.  The D'backs have made a pitching change for this game, going from Robbie Ray to Alan Webster, which is like "six to one, half a dozen to the other" in my eyes as neither starter is very good. Webster has a 7.11 ERA in four starts this season. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

10* Saskatchewan (4:00 ET):  I'm just not a believer in this Ottawa team. Similar to last year, it appears as if a surprisingly good (or should I say "competitive") start has led them to being overvalued in the marketplace. Granted, they certainly have improved from LY's expansion campaign, however the Redblacks still have been outscored by 70 pts despite a .500 (4-4 SU) record and come into this week off B2B losses.  This will be the first time they've been favored at the betting window all season and I believe the first time since the re-entered the league last year. Of course, Saskatchewan arrives at the Nation's capital as the league's lone winless team, but the Rough Riders have been far more competitive than their overall record indicates. An outright win here is likely, but take the points.

Incredibly, six of Saskatchewan's eight losses have been by four points or less. Talk about bad luck. Yet, somehow they are still 2-5-1 ATS as unlike Ottawa, they've actually been favored a few times. Last week, coming off a bye week, was brutal as the Rough Riders allowed a hail mary at the end of the first half and a 10-9 deficit quickly became 18-9. They'd go on to lose 34-31 at home to Calgary.  The only two teams to defeat the Riders by more than four points are Hamilton & Edmonton, who I have ranked 1-2 in the entire league right now.  I just can't imagine a team going winless throughout an entire season and this shapes up as one of Saskatchewan's best chances at a victory. It's been a miserable season (lost top two QB's), but they've remained competitive nonetheless.

On the flip side of the Riders' close losses is the fact that Ottawa's only two wins over the last six games have both been by three points.  They were annihilated two weeks ago at Calgary, losing 48-3 (I was on that one!) and then followed it up w/ a 30-24 loss at Toronto.  I do not think that QB Henry Burris wil be able to duplicate his numbers from the last game when he completed 32 of 36 passes for 426 yards (but no touchdowns).  Surprisingly, the Riders lead the league in yards per carry (6.9), so they'll be able to move the ball here and I feel it's very likely that they pick up their first win of the season here. 10* Saskatchewan

8* Run Line Cincinnati (2:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5. Cincy finally snapped a 5-game losing streak to the Brewers last night w/ a wild, back & forth 12-9 victory here at Miller Park.  The teams are now an even 6-6 in 12 head to head matchups this season, which is what you'd expect from two clubs currently separated by just one-half game in the standings. The Reds actually have the slightly better run differential, but considering the heavy number of one-run losses they've taken this season (26), I feel they're a much safer bet on the run line. No other team in the National League has lost more than 21 games by a one-run margin. It's worth laying the juice here.

Consider that heading into the top of the ninth last night, the Reds trailed 9-8.  That was after staking to an early 6-1 lead.  Just 2-13 their last 15 games overall, Cincy clearly is due for a little bit of "market correction," but I don't trust them enough just yet.  Thus, you can see how the run line comes in handy, especially since they've lost four times by exactly one run over the last two weeks. After being shut out in B2B games, scoring 12 runs last night has to be taken as a positive sign.  Also consider that the Brewers have now dropped five of six and have just two wins by more than a one-run margin over the last two weeks.

John Lamb, acquired from KC in the Johnny Cueto deal, has yet to deliver a quality outing and is winless in three starts for the Reds.  His strikeout total (21 K's in 17 1/3 IP) is impressive though.  Clearly, there's room for improvement here.  Meanwhile, Brew Crew starter Wily Peralta certainly seems to be regressing as time goes on as he's posted a 5.52 ERA in six starts since coming off the disabled list and has allowed 10 runs w/ five walks in the last two while lasting a combined 7 2/3 innings.  Last time out, in an 11-6 loss in Cleveland, was his shortest outing of the entire year and his velocity was way down.  If that's all not bad enough, Peralta allowed six runs earlier this season in a loss to the Reds.  8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* San Diego (1:35 ET):  The Padres have yet to defeat the Phillies this season in five tries. That's just embarrassing when you consider not only the Phils' overall record, but also the fact that no other team (save for the Cubs, ironically enough) can say that. Yesterday brought a 4-3 loss, though they did outhit Philly, 8-6.  However, I feel that Sunday's pitching matchup is too one-sided to ignore as San Diego sends the proven commodity James Shields to the mound while Philly counters w/ Alec Asher, who came over in the Cole Hamels trade and is making his big league debut. Remember that this Phillies team has been outscored by 157 runs this season, more than any other team. 

Shields, like his team, has had a very disappointing 2015 season. He's coming off a rough outing at Washington where he allowed five runs in just 5 2/3 innings, plus he walked four batters. But in his start previous to that one, he did deliver six scoreless innings of five-hit ball.  It was another quality outing in another one-run loss vs. these Phillies earlier this month as well. In fact, he was 4 for 5 in terms of quality starts before the poor outing in D.C.. Against Atlanta on August 18th, he drew 16 swinging strikes on only 95 pitches.  It's not as if he's facing a strong lineup here; the Phillies are 38-63 vs. right-handed starters this year and averaging only 3.8 runs per game. I just think that Shields is too good to drop yet another decision (1-6 TSR L7).

Philadelphia has played far better baseball since the All-Star Break and is a far more respectable club at home than on the road.  Yet, any kind of sustained win streak has been the exception and not the rule. The last two days saw them send their only two profitable starters to the hill; today we don't know what we're getting.  Asher is one the organization's most highly touted prospects, but I keep coming back to the fact that this is a really bad team. They're only 46-70 as an underdog on the money line and have 32 losses by four or more runs.  Look for the Padres to avoid the sweep here.  8* San Diego

10* St. Louis (8:00 ET):   We have two 0-2 teams here, but I'll give a big edge to the Rams seeing as they're a) at home and b) the Colts haven't taken the preseason seriously in over a decade.  This will actually be the first time Jeff Fisher's team has been at home and following uninspiring losses to both Oakland and Tennessee, I expect he'll have his team gunning for a win.  Indianapolis, whose eye is on not just the regular season, but also winning a Super Bowl, is unlikely to have any such interest in winning this game.  Therefore, I have no problem laying the short number in this one, even though we'll see more of Andrew Luck as well. But Luck himself won't be enough and in the 2nd half, I expect St. Louis will the lone party interested in winning the game.

One thing that the Colts have to be very careful about in this game is protecting Luck.  The offensive line did a terrible job last week, giving up three sacks, and that was against a bad Chicago defense.  This Rams' front four rates as the best in the entire league and is loaded w/ talent.  If they can get to Luck early, than his day could be cut short for fear of injury.  Indianapolis has now lost seven straight preseason games and so far has tallied only 21 points in two games.  This is a depth-shy team that has scored all of seven points in the second half. With so many veterans on the roster, I don't think we'll see players such as Frank Gore and Andre Johnson out on the field for as long as we're accustomed to seeing other teams' starters.

After an uninspired showing at Oakland in the first preseason game (lost 18-3), the Rams were at least a little better last week as they actually outgained the Titans, 403-380, in a 27-14 loss.  I say that even though they were down 20-0 at halftime.  Given the high hopes they have this year, I assume the coaching staff is going to want to see improvement across the board here tonight.  Provided they don't get blown out again in the first half like last week, the Rams' reserves will be put in a position to win the game.  Playing at home for the first time should be a big lift. 10* St. Louis

10* Under Marlins/Nationals (7:05 ET):  Barring something unforeseen, Washington is not going to make the playoffs. They trail the Mets by 6.5 games in the NL East and have little, if any, chance of catching the Cubs for the Wild Card (nine games back).  This is shocking as going into the All-Star Break, I thought taking this division would be a mere formality. Their misery continued Friday w/ a shocking 4-3 loss to Miami as massive -275 money line favorites. No way, I'm touching the ML today, but I do like the total. I won w/ the Under Thursday when the Nats beat the Padres 4-2 and unlike last night, we're getting an additional half-run to work with, which is key. Theoretically, the Nats should win here & thus not have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. As we know, 7 is a key number in betting MLB totals.

Washington had greatly been outperforming its overall numbers in recent days, but has come back down to Earth w/ just seven runs scored in the last two games. Consider that in the three games before that, they'd scored 22 runs on 26 hits, a pace that is almost impossible to maintain.  They'll be facing Tom Koehler tonight and while they tagged him for five runs in six innings last month, again that came on just six hits. For the record, this is called "cluster luck."  Koehler did walk four batters in his last start, but still gave up only two runs in a 5-2 loss to Pittsburgh. You'd figure his control will be better tonight. While his overall body of work is not great, expect Koehler to keep Washington in check tonight.

Washington's Jordan Zimmerman opened the year by posting a 3.04 ERA his first 17 starts, with just six home runs allowed. He's since regressed badly, but I can see him turning things around tonight here at home where he still owns a 2.68 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 15 starts. Plus, he's unbeaten in six career starts vs. the Marlins at home, posting a 2.39 ERA. When he faced them in Miami last month, he allowed just three runs in six innings, though the team still lost 4-1.  The Marlins have scored just 17 runs total their L8 games while batting below .200. They've finished w/ eight or fewer hits six times during this span.  10* Under Marlins/Nationals

8* Miami (7:00 ET):  The Dolphins are 0-2 so far this preseason, but will be playing at home for the first time tonight as they host Atlanta. The fact the Fish are winless is a little misleading in the sense they've played relatively well, the first team offense in particular. A trendy pick to make the playoffs this year, Miami has been favored - by exactly one point - on the road in each of their first two games, so they seem like a pretty good bargain here against a Falcons team I played against last week. Atlanta lost 30-22 as one-point dogs up in New York, turning the ball over three times. They were also able to run the ball for only 31 yds on 21 carries, which is troubling. I look for the home team to take care of business in this one.

Miami lost its preseason opener, 27-10 to Chicago, a result that I'm proud to say that I was on the right side of.  But that final score was a little misleading in the sense that the Bears scored 24 of those 27 points in the second half when the reserves were in the game.  They also greatly benefited from four Dolphins' turnovers.  For Miami, the big takeaway so far is that QB Ryan Tannehill has looked good. He directed a touchdown drive in that first game, his only series, and then last week completed 12 of his 15 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. Again, the team blew a fourth quarter lead, losing 31-30 to Carolina. But, even w/ a banged up offensive line, Tannehill will see his most action of the preseason this week, which makes what he's done over the first two games very pertinent. I'm not worried at all that the Miami backups have been unable to hold leads in the first two games.

While Atlanta similarly went up 14-0 last week on the Jets, only to similarly give the game away, 1st year HC Dan Quinn still has a lot of work to do in rebuilding a defense that ranked among the league's worst in 2014. The fact two potential starters, one of them being talented CB Desmond Trufant, remain out w/ injuries makes that task all the more challenging.  In the two games so far, the Falcons have surrendered 54 points and I expect them to struggle here against Tannehill and the rest of the Dolphins' first-team offense. When Tannehill has left the game the last two weeks, Miami was up 10-3 and 14-0, and last week it should have been 21-0 if not for a poor challenge from HC Joe Philbin. Had Philbin not challenged, Tannehill would have led his fourth touchdown drive in as many chances this preseason. Miami's first team defense didn't allow any points last week, forcing two three and outs.  8* Miami

10* Over Vikings/Cowboys (7:00 ET):  We all know these preseason results are to be taken w/ a grain of salt, but Dallas' first two games have been particularly yawn-inspiring. With QB Tony Romo playing all of one series to this point, the offense has scored a total of just 13 points. Meanwhile, the defense has somehow gotten away w/ allowing only 114 yards passing - total!  Both games stayed well Under the total, but with starters playing more in this "dress rehearsal" game, I see an increase in scoring across the board here. With the benefit of an extra game (played in the HOF Game), Minnesota seems to be in fine form already and should have no problem scoring on this banged up Dallas' defense.  Take the Over.

While the Cowboys have yielded a minuscule number of passing yards to this point, opponents have had no problem running the ball on them. So far, they've allowed 290 yds rushing.  Minnesota, who has been very good in the preseason in two years under Mike Zimmer (perfect 7-0 SU!), should have no problem moving the ball in this game. Expect the Cowboys' passing yardage allowed to more than double after this game, in the wake of a season-ending injury to CB Orlando Scandrick.  Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater has looked very sharp in three games so far (22-28 for 219 yards) and should be able to pick this defense apart.  Remember that two weeks ago Minnesota scored 23 pts in the first half alone. 

Dallas will also need to do its part here as 13 points in two games, preseason or not, is pretty unacceptable. Tony Romo has played just the one series so far and it was a three and out.  The three running backs expected to fill the void left by DeMarco Murray's departure had only 13 combined touches last week against San Francisco.  While Minnesota's defense has allowed just 31 pts total in three games, it should be noted that they faced a Pittsburgh offense that did not have QB Ben Roethlisberger (backup Landry Jones was awful), Jameis Winston making his first career start for Tampa Bay and a talent-bereft Oakland team. This will be their toughest test yet.  10* Over Vikings/Cowboys

8* Chicago (7:05 ET):  Typically, I don't like to lay points w/ the road team (in any sport), but I'll make a very big exception here as this seems like a tailor-made situation for the Sky to come in and dominate as they're catching the Dream w/o rest and off an outright win in Indiana last night.  Atlanta has now won four of five, including three straight, but it's important to note that before last night's upset, they'd beaten the same team (Connecticut) three times during that span.  This team still sports a losing record, so despite signs of being more competitive of late (6-1 ATS L7), I'll go against them here as its a clear letdown spot after pulling off a rather shocking upset Friday.  Meanwhile, Chicago hasn't played since Sunday! Lay the points.

The Sky continue to lead the league in scoring (82.5 PPG) and that's problematic for an Atlanta team which ranks 12th (ie last) defensively at 80.8 PPG allowed.  Chicago is off a home and home sweep of Washington, both wins coming by just two points, but I was impressed that they were able to win on the road Sunday despite scoring only 66 pts.  Elena Delle Donne is having a MVP season as she leads the league in scoring (23.9 PPG) and rebounding (8.8) and earlier this year she tallied a career high 45 pts in an overtime win over the Dream. The Sky can not only clinch a playoff berth w/ a win tonight, but they can also move into sole possession of second place in the Eastern Conference thanks to Atlanta beating Indiana last night.

These teams have played three close games this season, all decided by five points or less. But the Dream's chances of keeping pace tonight are weakened by the fact they're playing in the second night of back to backs. After trailing by 10 after the first quarter last night in Indiana, the team made an impressive come back, outscoring the Fever by 12 over the final 10 minutes.  But that has to take something out of a team, plus there's the fact that the last two times they've faced Chicago, the Dream has allowed a total of 197 points.  I expect the rested Sky to come out firing in this one and the tired hosts having little in the tank to keep pace. Over the last month, Atlanta is 0-3 SU after scoring 90+ pts their previous game. 8* Chicago

10* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET):  The Royals continue to roll. They're now 30 games over .500, 13 games clear of everybody else in the division and are on the verge of topping their projected win total from the start of the season before September. They came into Tampa Bay and won yday, 3-2, but for tonight I see them being at a disadvantage w/ Kris Medlen on the mound. Sure, Medlen turned in a quality outing Monday, his first start since the 2013 playoffs. But I'm not convinced he can be counted on each time through the rotation. The Rays, now 3.5 games back in the Wild Card chase, are a desperate team here & w/ Jake Odorizzi on the hill, I give them a big edge on mound + they're eager to end a long losing streak to Kansas City.

Odorizzi, who has not earned a decision in five starts, comes off B2B quality outings on the road. He's allowed just three runs and nine hits over 12 innings and while the team ultimately came up short both times, you can't really pin that on the starter. Odorizzi has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts and 8 of 10 since rejoining the rotation. Generally speaking, his best work has come here at home where he has a 2.20 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in nine starts. His KW ratio over his last six starts is an outstanding 38-6 and while you'd like to see him record more outs via ground balls as opposed to fly balls, this is clearly a pitcher deserving of a better team start record than 10-11 this year. It's not like the Royals offense did much yday

The bottom line here is that Kansas City is now 5-0 this season vs. Tampa Bay and going back further, 15-3 the last 18 meetings.  In many ways, they've usurped the Rays as the well-built, scrappy team of the American League. But I also think that head to head record is far too one-sided given the Rays overall talent level.  Only the Royals and Houston have given up fewer runs this season than has Tampa Bay among AL clubs.  If the Rays' offense can get going against Medlen, and I think they will, then I see no reason why they won't break through against the AL Central leaders Saturday.  10* Tampa Bay

8* Seattle (10:05 ET):  This is a matchup of the league's two worst teams. Even in a very weak Western Conference, neither Seattle nor San Antonio have much of a shot at making the playoffs even though fourth place Los Angeles is still currently six games below .500.  The key here, however, is the Silver Stars' 0-13 road record. Though 7-5-1 ATS, they've been outscored by a double digit margin in those games and the oddsmakers aren't being too kind here, installing them as a small dog despite a nine-point loss here just 12 days ago. Since then, they've lost three more times, all at home, by 28, 17 and 31 points.  That's an average of more than 25 PPG! There's simply no way I can endorse them getting so few points here.

Seattle hasn't played in a full week, which is another advantage coming into this home tilt. They lost here at home last Friday to red-hot Indiana, 75-63, but tonight's opponent is clearly at the opposite end of the spectrum.  The Storm actually did lead the Fever by six points at halftime, not to mention outshot and outrebounded them for the game. Meanwhile, there were almost no positive takeaways from the Stars' 90-59 home loss to Los Angeles Sunday as they shot just 26.8 percent from the field. Over their last three games, they are a horrific 60 for 205 shooting and haven't topped 40 percent even once during their five-game losing streak. They shot just 37.3% here in Seattle earlier this month. 

San Antonio has played three times since losing here at Key Arena back on August 16th while Seattle has played just the one time.  The home team has obviously won all three meetings this season. Tonight's loser will be all but eliminated from playoff contention.  With five of their final seven contests at home, the Storm have a much better shot at staying in contention.  It starts here by beating the one team in the league worse than them on paper.  Lay the points. 8* Seattle

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET):  The Eskimos are off their worst loss of the season as last week saw them go down at home to Hamilton by a score of 49-20 as two-point dogs. I expect a strong bounce back Friday night.  Consider for a moment that their defense had allowed only seven touchdowns all season before giving up six to the Ti-Cats. Despite the rough performance, Edmonton still can lay claim to having the top stop unit in the league as they allow just 18.7 PPG overall and 285 yards per game. Turnovers destroyed the Esks last week (-4 differential) in what was their first home loss since last season & their fourth worst (in terms of margin) in the last 32 years. They'd previously won seven in a row here, all by at least 17 points.

Toronto comes into Week 10 w/ a better record, but Edmonton is the better team, at least IMO. The Argos have been both lucky and good of late w/ three straight victories all coming by seven points or less.  In fact, their one win by more than seven points this season came all the way back in Wk 1, against Edmonton, a game that was tied at the half. Incredibly, the Argos have trailed in all six of their wins this season, including four times heading into the final quarter. The Eskimos, meanwhile, responded from that 26-11 setback by winning five of their next six w/ the lone loss coming by only three points. In all five wins, they allowed 17 pts or less. Turnovers will be key here as the Argos have yet to win when losing the TO battle. Edmonton is -9 in that department the L2 games after positing a positive differential prior to that. Toronto also has not won four straight games since 2013.

While the Eskimos will be breaking in a new starting pivot in this game (James Franklin), they can still lean on a defense which is #1 in the league by a fairly significant margin. In addition to having the most sacks (27), they've also allowed the fewest passing yards, first downs and lowest pass efficiency rating.  This is a team that's outscored opponents by 50 pts this year; Toronto has only outscored its opponents by 16 total pts despite their 6-2 record.  The Argos have led at halftime only once all season and I say their luck runs out here.  Lay the points. 10* Edmonton

9* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): I like this spot a lot as we have two starting pitchers squaring off for the second time in as many starts.  Note the same situation was to present itself last night, but Seattle made a pitching change from Vidal Nuno to Roenis Elias and perhaps it cost them. Nuno had gotten the short end of the stick on Saturday as the Mariners lost 6-3 despite him allowing just one run and five hits over six-plus innings. Elias wasn't nearly as effective last night as he allowed three runs and nine hits in a 4-2 loss to Carlos Rodon & the White Sox. Now John Danks gets his crack at revenge against Taijuan Walker for the only game Chicago lost up in Seattle last weekend. As much as I'm leery on the Sox overall, rarely do you see one pitcher beat another B2B times. 

Neither Walker nor Danks pitched very well Sunday as the former got the win in spite of allowing five runs in 5 2/3 IP.  Walker had been solid in four consecutive starts before that, but overall his numbers remain unimpressive as he carries a 4.99 ERA and 1.412 WHIP on the road this season.  Danks, looking to bounce back, has an 8-4 TSR at home this season.  The last time he pitched at US Cellular Field was on August 12th and he allowed just one run over 7 1/3 innings. In fact, he's allowed 1 or 0 ER in each of his L4 home starts.  The Mariners have a poor record (15-26) vs. southpaw starters and honestly I'm pretty surprised that they come in as the favorite on the money line for this one. 

What's interesting here is that despite both teams spending much of this season below .500, the numbers suggest both have overachieved just to get where they're at now, Seattle moreso.  The Mariners, shutout yday for six innings, have a -93 run differential this season that is - by far - the worst in the entire American League. The White Sox are actually second worst at -56. But one big edge Chicago seems to have in this matchup is that they have dominated AL West teams all season long to the tune of an 18-8 record including 9-1 here at home (six straight wins). At home and off a win, plus the situation w/ the starting pitching matchup (immediate revenge for Danks), the White Sox look like a real bargain tonight. 9* Chi White Sox

10* Houston (8:10 ET):  Minnesota's win streak finally came to an end last night w/ a 5-4 loss at Tampa Bay and despite a return home this weekend, I see them being at a major disadvantage going into tonight's series opener.  Houston had Thursday off after dominating the Yankees in B2B games, outscoring them 21-3!  This Astros' pitching staff has been remarkable of late, holding opponents to two runs or fewer in nine consecutive contests. Starting tonight will be lefty Scott Kazmir, who has pitched much better than his record shows, whether it was in Oakland or here w/ his new team. I took Kazmir in my Interleague Game of the Month last Saturday and all he did was outpitch Zack Greinke in a 3-1 win. I'll come back w/ him again tonight.

The Twins are a team that has enjoyed some good fortune this season and that has kept them in the playoff race. Consider they have just one winning month all season (a 20-7 May) and have been outscored on the season.  They came from behind three straight times to win in Baltimore last weekend, then took the first two of a three-game set in Tampa Bay.  That string of good fortune came at time when they were w/o All-Star closer Glen Perkins (back spasms). But that luck ran out last night as they couldn't score against the Rays' bullpen. I certainly haven't liked what I've seen from tonight's starter Kyle Gibson, who in winless since the All-Star Break w/ a 7.22 ERA in seven starts. Four times he's allowed at least 6 ER (while going less than 5 2/3 innings).

Houston's feast or famine lineup (leads AL in both home runs and K's) should be able to do plenty of damage against Gibson, but the real key here is a pitching staff that leads the league in ERA (3.30) and is at 2.06 since August 4th. Over the L9 games, they've been even more impressive, holding opponents to just 12 runs total and a batting average just below .200.  Their only two losses in that stretch both were 1-0 finals.  Kazmir, who has a 2.41 ERA in six starts since coming over, shut down the Twins last month in his final start for Oakland, giving up just one run in 8 1/3 IP. The Astros are 22-8 L30 games against teams w/ a winning record. 10* Houston

8* Run Line Baltimore (8:05 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Orioles +1.5.  Baltimore is in real trouble right now. They've lost seven of eight to fall a game below .500 and now have to leapfrog three teams for the second Wild Card berth in the American League. One of those just so happens to be Texas, who they visit this weekend.  Despite the recent bad fortune, all hope is not lost for the O's, in my opinion as they have the distinction of being one of the few teams in the AL to have outscored its opponents for the year (+49 run differential). Contrast that w/ the Rangers, who are four games above .500, yet -29 in run differential. Baltimore's dropped a number of one-run games during this losing streak, so laying the juice for the added insurance is worth it here. 

Texas picked up a surprise win Thursday afternoon, beating Toronto 4-1, after losing the first two games of that series here at home. They're only 29-32 for the year in Arlington thanks to allowing 5.2 runs per game. The Rangers have been a fairly lucky team this season & got another break yday when Blue Jays' RF Bautista let what should have been a routine single roll under his glove, leading to a three-run inside the park home run, which turned out to be the difference in the game.  Cole Hamels has steadily improved over his four starts since coming over from Philadelphia, but even after B2B quality outings, the lefty still has a 4.73 ERA since the big trade. Him having only two strikeouts his last time out is a tad bit concerning.  Also, Baltimore does have a winning record (18-14) vs. southpaw starters this year.

Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman has pitched well for the Orioles of late, despite having little to show for it. The right-hander has a 0.900 WHIP his L3 starts (all quality), but Baltimore has lost every game, including the last one by a one-run margin.  Gausman pitched very well vs. Minnesota on Sunday, going seven strong innings and allowing just two runs on three hits (1 HR) w/ a 8-0 KW ratio. While he's struggled on the road this year, I feel that if you give the better offense an additional 1.5 runs to work with, then we're in safe territory. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

8* Detroit (8:00 ET):  Home teams have gone 11-5 each of the first two weeks of preseason, but with this being the most important week ("dress rehearsal"), I think you'll start to see a better effort from some of the visiting teams.  Here, you have a Lions team that would certainly be favored over the Jaguars in the regular season, even if the game were played here in Jacksonville.  Therefore, with starters seeing extended time, I'll go ahead and grab the points with the better team.  Both are off losses and 1-1 SU so far in preseason play, but I'd argue the Lions have looked more impressive overall as they had a lead going into the fourth quarter last week in Washington after thumping the Jets 23-3 in the first game. 

On the surface, neither team's total yardage from last week is particularly impressive. However, consider that Detroit ran only 49 plays en route to 241 total yards (4.9 YPP) while Jacksonville had 67 snaps and gained just 244 total yards, meaning they were at a full yard per play (3.6) less than the Lions were.  I saw a headline which read "Bortles and Jags' offense looks ready" and quickly realized how low the bar must be for this Jacksonville offense this season as they scored only 12 pts last week, all on field goals. Bortles completed just 50 percent of his passes and I remain unsold on him as a long-term, viable starter in this league. Of note is that three of the Jags' four field goals were 49 yards or longer, meaning that they weren't exactly getting deep into Giants' territory.

Though this is the game where we see starters the most, Jacksonville is electing to rest 12 of its players due to various injuries. One of them is RB Toby Gerhart, so rookie TJ Yeldon (who has yet to play) will be left to carry the load.  The Jags barely squeaked out a victory (beat Pittsburgh 23-21) in their first preseason game, so again, laying points w/ them seems dicey.  Expect Bortles to be pressured here and you saw what the Lions' defensive front was able to do to RGIII and Washington last week. Lions' rookie running back Ameer Abdullah was curiously quiet last week after a breakout game in the opener (67 yards) and I'd expect to see him featured tonight.  QB Matt Stafford has already directed two scoring drives in very limited action and don't forget this offense gained well over 400 yards in its first game.  Backup Dan Orlovsky, believe it or not, played very well behind Stafford last week (13-17, 118 yds + 2 TDs).  8* Detroit

10* New York (7:35 ET):  This is a big-time matchup & a potential WNBA Finals preview w/ the league's two first place teams squaring off.  Both are off losses; though there's really no denying that the Liberty have been playing better of late, in terms of both straight up and against the spread results. They did cover (as 2.5-pt pups) in Sunday's 80-79 loss at Indiana, giving them a 7-1 ATS mark the last eight games overall. They'd also won six of their past seven SU.  As for the Lynx, they lost by 12 in Phoenix as one-point faves to fall to 2-7 ATS their last nine, a stretch that's seen them play below .500 at 4-5 SU.  This is a big game for New York to show that they are an elite team & I think they take care of business here at home.

After finishing below .500 each of the past three seasons, the Liberty have broken out in 2015 thanks in large part to a defense that leads the league in points allowed at 70.3 PPG. The team also ranks #1 league-wide in terms of rebounding at 37.1 per game. The key for them seems to be holding the opponent to less than 80 pts. Going all the way back to June 26th, they've lost only four times and each game saw them allow that many. For the year, they're 17-3 SU when allowing less than 80.  Minnesota comes in having been held under 70 in three of its past four games, shooting below 40% each time. Here at home, the Liberty have been a tad bit stingier defensively, holding teams to an average of just 69.2 PPG.  

A terrible first half defensively probably doomed the Liberty on Sunday as they allowed the Fever to score 55 pts on 56 percent shooting! Yet still, they had a chance to win that game. Going back to mid-June, New York has lost just once at home and that came on the second night of back to backs after playing on the road the previous night.  The Lynx are playing their 10th game in 23 days here and likely doing so w/o the services of Seimone Augustus, who is battling both knee and foot issues.  Six of Minnesota's nine losses this year have come out on the road and they're only 6-9 ATS.  A win here would clinch a playoff spot for the Liberty, so they certainly won't be lacking for motivation. Lay the small number.   10* New York

8* Hamilton (7:35 ET): It was a few weeks ago that I proclaimed the Ti-Cats as the best team in the league and boy have they made me look smart ever since. With five straight double digit wins (all covers), they have become the class of the league at 6-2 SU and what they did last week may have been their most impressive performance all season as they went to Edmonton and rolled to a 49-20 victory.  That's now 101 pts scored the last two games and their average margin of victory the L3 wks is basically 30 points per game! Montreal was kind to me last week in upsetting BC on the road, but this is a tall order for them having to go to a place where no road team has ever won.  Lay the points.

Hamilton had to wait until game #5 to play here at Tim Horton's Field.  It's been worth the wait.  First, they beat Toronto here on August 3rd, 34-18 as shockingly low 3.5-point favorites. They were favored by 7 in 38-8 drubbing of Winnipeg the following week and then crushed BC 52-22 after that. Including last season's East Final, they are now 10-0 SU in their new home and just to illustrate how dominant they've been here, in seven of the nine regular season wins they haven't trailed at any point. The offense, led by QB Zach Collaros, is rolling having scored 30+ in five straight games. Collaros leads the CFL right now in passing yardage w/ 2,339 and the team is #1 in points per possession and yards per drive.  Consider that last week they scored 6 TD's against a Edmonton D (which still leads the league in YPG allowed) that previously had allowed only 7 TD's all season!

I made the case that Montreal was certainly better than their 2-5 record indicated going into last week.  They proved me right w/ arguably their best game of the season, a 23-13 win over BC.  It was the fourth time this season that the Als defense held an opponent to 15 points or fewer.  Shockingly, one of those four came against Hamilton earlier in the season, a 17-13 upset as 2.5-pt dogs.  But that game took place in Montreal obviously and the Ti-Cats haven't lost since. A -4 turnover differential killed Hamilton in that one, but lately it's been they creating all the TO's as they have forced nine in the last two games and their defense has scored eight touchdowns already this season.  The Als ran the ball incredibly well last week (39 carries for 251 yds), but I can't see anything close to a repeat performance of that here as the Ti-Cats allow just 75 YPG over land. 8* Hamilton

10* Under Padres/Nationals (7:05 ET):  These have been two of the top Over teams in baseball all season long and San Diego is in fact, by far and away, #1 overall, now at 74-49-3 Over in all games.  True to form, the first two games of this three-game set have gone Over the total. Last night was a surprise 6-5 San Diego win as Washington's nightmare freefall out of playoff contention continues.  However, for tonight's finale, I'll call for the "script to be flipped" as you can expect fewer runs to be scored than expected. I love the number as we get an extra-half run to work with and seeing as the home team is a rather significant ML favorite, there's a good chance we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth. Take the Under.

Over the last week, both offenses have been scoring at a rate that's significantly higher than their overall season average.  Over its last seven games, San Diego is averaging 5.9 runs per game while batting .308.  That's impressive, but also well above their YTD averages of 4.1 rpg and a .245 team BA.  The Over has cashed in five straight games for them, not to mention 11 of the last 13, so you have to figure things are due to go the other way. As for the Nationals, they are averaging 5.3 rpg their last seven, but batting only .248.  That team batting average is right in line with their overall YTD numbers, but they've still managed to score a full run per game more. They have 26 hits the L3 games and have scored 22 runs, a pace that will be difficult to maintain.

Andrew Cashner will get the baseball tonight for the Padres as he looks to win consecutive starts for the 1st time in 2015.  The Over has cashed more often that not in his 24 starts this season (15-8-1), including 10 of the last 14. But he allowed only an unearned run over 6 IP his last time out, a 9-3 win over St. Louis.  Here, Cashner will be opposed by Joe Ross (brother of San Diego's Tyson), who has done his best work here at home w/ a 2.27 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in five starts. He too allowed just one run his last time out. Interestingly that 6-1 win over Milwaukee marked just the second time in seven starts that the team scored more than two runs for him. 10* Under Padres/Nationals

8* Connecticut (7:05 ET):  Two desperate teams will meet Thursday night at the Mohegan Sun. The visiting Mercury picked up a big win their last time out, 79-67 at home over league-leading Minnesota.  But picking up both a win and cover has not been easy for this Phoenix team that we saw dominate the league so handily last season.  In 2015, they are a league worst 9-17 against the spread and prior to upsetting the Lynx, they'd failed at the betting window three straight times (also going 0-3 SU) and in 9 of their past 12 games as well. Things are even more dire right now for Connecticut, who is 0-5 SU and ATS its last five and trails fourth place Washington by 3.5 games now for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. I'll go w/ the more desperate team, at home, taking points.

In three of its past four games, Connecticut has lost to the same team, that being last place Atlanta. Clearly those results could come back to haunt the Sun if they do in fact fail to make the playoffs. Tuesday's defeat may have been the most embarrassing of the lot as they scored only 57 points on 30.2 percent shooting.  Of course, they also gave up 100+ points two days earlier, here at home, in another loss to the Dream.  Injuries have really taken their toll on this team, but I still think the line is inflated here, especially considering they won at Phoenix (in double OT) earlier this season. Granted, Brittney Griner was not in the Mercury lineup for that one, but even w/ her back, results have been mixed. Not only has there been a surprising lack of blowouts since Griner's return, the team has been fortunate to go 3-0 in overtime games.

Then you have the fact that the Mercury have a losing road record, which makes laying this many points certainly appear to be a dicey proposition at best. With Griner, they've been beaten by double digits in each of their last two away games, one of those against banged up Tulsa.  SInce Griner's been back, the team is just 4-4 SU on the road w/ two of the wins coming by just three points each.  The Sun are respectable here at home (average 78 PPG) and I cannot see them getting blown out in this spot. 8* Connecticut

6* San Francisco (3:45 ET):  After ending the Cubs' six-game win streak last night, you have to like the Giants this afternoon w/ their ace Madison Bumgarner on the hill. It's a really quick turnaround here w/ only about 14 hours between games and this being Getaway Day, that would certainly seem to favor the home team. As I've gone over in recent days, despite the gap between these two teams in the standings, other numbers suggest they are far more even and in some cases San Francisco is better.  With Bumgarner pitching, the linesmakers certainly agree, installing the home team as sizable favorites on the money line. It's justified considering the reigning World Series Champs are now 14-3 their last 17 at home as well.

Bumgarner's credentials are certainly well known. But lately, he's been particularly special. I took him his last time out and honestly he wasn't even at his best in a quality start that led to a 6-4 victory over Pittsburgh. He allowed 3 ER over 6 1/3 IP, which was more runs allowed than in his previous three starts combined, a stretch that included two complete games and a ridiculous 35-1 KW ratio. In five of seven starts since the All-Star Break, Bumgarner has allowed 1 or 0 ER and all year he's been dominant at home, posting a 2.05 ERA and 0.989 WHIP By the way, he's 2-0 w/ a 0.75 ERA his last four starts against the Cubs. It's an obvious pitching advantage for the Giants w/ him on the mound almost every time out, but especially today vs. Dan Haren, who leads all NL starters in home runs allowed (28) including seven in his first four starts for the Cubs. 

In yday's analysis, I made a pretty clear case that the Cubs, a franchise typically not associated w/ good fortune, have been a pretty lucky bunch in 2015. Despite having a comfortable lead over the Giants in the standings, they entered this series w/ an inferior run differential. No team has more victories by one-run, in extra innings or in walk-off fashion than do the Cubbies this season. The fact they were 5-0 head to head w/ the Giants going into last night really made little sense. They avoided Bumgarner in the previous series, but aren't so lucky here.  6* San Francisco

8* Toronto (2:05 ET):  I see no reason why the Blue Jays don't finish off the sweep here. I had them Tuesday (as a 10* release) as they pulled out a wild (and some would say "somewhat fortunate") 6-5 victory by scoring two runs w/ two outs in the top of the ninth. Then again, one could make the point that kind of good fortune was due to start going Toronto's way given a very "unlucky" 13-24 record in one-run games this year. That's all that's held this team back this year though as they now own a massive +173 run differential (easily MLB's best) following last night's 12-5 victory, their fifth in a row.  Their offense has been otherworldly all season really, but even more so since acquiring Troy Tulowitzki. They win again today.

The Rangers came into this series off three consecutive victories, but those were against a weak opponent, that being Detroit.  As expected, the step up in class here has not treated them well.  I should reiterate something I mentioned in Tuesday's analysis, that being that Texas has been a pretty lucky team this year considering they are only one-half game out of the second Wild Card in the American League despite a -30 run differential, obviously a far cry from where Toronto is currently at.  Thursday's starter Yovani Gallardo appears to have pitched well his L3 starts if you look solely at ERA (1.59), but upon digging deeper his WHIP (1.529) is nearly identical & that's not a good sign. Six walks are to blame for the high WHIP and he also needed 98 pitches to get through six innings in his last start. 

There's really no stopping Toronto right now as the AL East leaders have won 21 of 25 and during the five-game win streak they lead all A.L. teams in runs scored (54), batting average (.347), home runs (11) and slugging.  That's of course pretty "par for the course" for this lineup, which is #1 in all of MLB in most "traditional" categories. They average a full run per game more than every other team in baseball after scoring 12 runs three times in the last four games! Making the Rangers' task even taller this afternoon is the Jays having Marco Estrada on the bump as he's won 10 of his L15 starts and over the last five opponents are batting just .155 against him. 8* Toronto

10* San Francisco (10:15 ET):   In yesterday's analysis, I mentioned how the Giants were a desperate team coming into this series.  Well, after an 8-5 loss Tuesday, that sense of desperation has grown. The reigning World Series champs now trail the Cubs by 7.5 games for the Wild Card, a number that might be too large to even overcome at this point, leaving the division (NL West) as their only option for even making the postseason. With the first place Dodgers winning last night, the gap between they and San Francisco has reached 2.5 games and considering LA is playing a bad Cincinnati team right now, the pressure is definitely on the Giants to start picking up some wins. I think they'll get one Weds night on ESPN.

While the Cubs do have a big lead on the Giants for the Wild Card, there's a lot to suggest these teams are far more even than the respective records show. For starters, San Francisco has a +59 run differential this season compared to "just" +43 for the Cubs.  Yes, the Northsiders have been incredibly hot of late, winning a ridiculous 21 of their last 25 games overall.  But as I've said before, a franchise not used to good fortune has had plenty of it in 2015. In one-run games, they are 28-17, not to mention they've gone 11-5 in extra inning games. No team has more wins in either category, not a surprise considering the Cubs also lead MLB in wins in their final at-bat. So, it really makes no sense that the Cubs are 5-0 head to head vs. the Giants this year. The home team is due to win, right?

Sticking w/ our them of the Cubs' "good fortune," we have the case of tonight's starter Kyle Hendricks, who has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts in spite of terrible numbers, namely a 7.25 ERA and 1.903 WHIP.  That includes a start against these Giants, back on August 8th, where he allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings.  Hendricks' team start record his last five starts is 5-0 despite opponents scoring five or more runs in three of those contests.  Now, San Francisco's Jake Peavy hasn't been much better of late, but he did allow only two runs and four hits in 5 IP vs. the Cubs earlier this month and had posted a 1.59 ERA his previous three starts against them. The Giants are 13-3 L16 at home and don't forget the Cubs had played 19 straight games in Chicago before yday.  10* San Francisco

10* Arizona (9:40 ET):  The Diamondbacks opened up as favorites on the money line for this one, which may surprise some considering an 0-5 head to head record vs. the Cardinals this season, not to mention the fact St. Louis just won its MLB-leading 80th game last night in dominating 9-1 fashion.  But don't expect these D'backs to go down in this series w/o a fight as they've still got a +30 run differential, so they should be better than a game below .500. They have a lefty starter on the hill Wednesday, Pat Corbin, and southpaws have given the Cards issues in the past. They're just 18-15 against them this season and 64-62 the L3 seasons. As impressive as St. Louis has been, I'll call for them to drop one Wednesday night.

Additionally, Arizona is catching St. Louis w/ one of its weakest pitchers on the mound. John Lackey has really struggled out on the road this season w/ a 4.40 ERA and 1.298 WHIP in 12 starts and the Redbirds are just 3-9 in those games. Lackey allowed five runs in his last start, a 9-3 loss at San Diego. What's interesting is that the team actually gives Lackey better run support on the road compared to at home, so it really is "all on him."  The Cards have lost the last four times he's started on the road, the last three all coming to non-playoff teams: Cincinnati, Milwaukee and San Diego.  Much more beatable on the road (34-26 overall), St. Louis is only 11-10 this season in road games where the ML is -100 to -125.

Corbin certainly did last long his last time out as he gave up four runs in just two innings of work. But having thrown only 47 pitches, he should be well-rested here, and note that was his worst outing all season.  He was coming off 6 2/3 scoreless innings of three-hit ball his previous start.  He's been slightly better at home this season and I'll look for the D'backs offense to "come alive" tonight.   They played well enough to win Monday, but left too many runners on base.   St. Louis can't win every night, can they?  10* Arizona

8* Atlanta (7:10 ET):  I cashed the Braves as a 10* release Monday, but things didn't go so well for them last night here at Turner Field as they fell 5-1 to the Rockies. It should be pointed out, however, that four of Colorado's runs were unearned and Atlanta finished the game w/ a 7-6 edge in hits. Quite frankly, neither of these clubs are going anywhere.  Colorado has lost 12 of 15 while Atlanta just 1-8 its last nine games. But, last night aside, I do think that the home field advantage matters in this series as the Braves do own a strong 33-25 record here at Turner Field while the Rockies are among the very worst teams on the road w/ a 23-38 record there and remember they started the season 6-0 away from home. Braves win.

Shelby Miller has arguably been the most hard luck pitcher in all of baseball this season. The Braves' right-hander has a 5-10 record in 25 starts despite a 2.50 ERA and 1.175 WHIP. He's actually winless going all the way back to May 17th (0-9 in 17 starts), but that doesn't tell the whole story as he's allowed 3 ER or less in 13 of those 17 starts and has a 3.11 ERA. The problem has been the offense has barely averaged two runs per game, scoring just 35 times. However, the Rockies' horrible pitching should allow Miller more run support than he's accustomed to here. Here at home, Miller has a 2.01 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 12 starts. As mentioned Monday, Colorado's offense sputters on the road w/ numbers dropping down to 3.5 rpg w/ a .234 team batting average. 

Atlanta was sloppy in the field last night, making three errors, which led to the four unearned runs being scored. But the Rockies simply cannot count on that good fortune on a nightly basis.  In their previous five road games, they were hitting just .158 w/ only eight runs scored.  They've found little success in the past against Miller here in Atlanta w/ the righty going 2-0 w/ a 0.60 ERA.  Colorado counters w/ a former Brave, Yohan Flande, who has been surprisingly effective in five starts. But the bottom line is that the Rockies have won B2B games only one time since the All-Star Break, so things don't look so good for them tonight.  8* Atlanta

6* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET):  Needless to say, the Minnesota Twins have not been kind to me in recent days. I've gone against them each of their last five games and come out on the wrong end every time.  This win streak is head-scratching to say the least when you consider they'd previously dropped 21 of 30 and their overall record is more "smoke and mirrors" than indicative of overall level of play. There's been only one month (went 20-7 in May) all season that the club has produced a winning record and that includes August as despite a five-game win streak, they're only 11-12 this month. Tampa Bay, also in Wild Card contention, has its top pitcher on the mound Wednesday and that should result in them evening this series up.

On August 15th, Chris Archer was hammered for eight runs (seven earned) in just 5 1/3 innings by Texas. That represents the only non-quality start for the Rays' ace over his last seven outings.  He rebounded w/ a CG shutout Thursday in Houston where he allowed just one hit and finished w/ an 11-1 KW ratio.  It took just 98 pitches to go the distance and even more impressive is the fact he drew 19 swinging strikes.  Here at home, Archer has a 2.63 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 13 starts despite a 3-5 record, so you would expect the results to start going his way. Especially here because in four career starts vs. the Twins, he is a perfect 4-0 w/ a 0.74 ERA. Archer has allowed 3 ER or less in 20 of 26 starts, including 16 of the last 19.

So, it goes w/o saying that the Rays should have the pitching edge here as Archer opposes Tyler Duffy, who got away w/ allowing only two runs despite giving up 10 hits his last time out. His only other road start saw him allow six runs in 2 IP.  Of course, it appeared that Tampa Bay had the pitching edge on paper last night as well.  But shockingly, the Twins homered three times and were able to chase Nate Karns after just three innings en route to the 11-7 victory. They needed that kind of offensive output as they were actually outhit for the game. Archer has allowed just 14 HR's this season and opponents are batting just .208 off him. Tampa Bay is 5-1 this year after allowing 10+ runs. Minnesota, who has been outscored this year, is 0-5 as a road underdog of +175 or higher. 6* Tampa Bay

8* Detroit (7:08 ET):  The Angels caught the Tigers in a bad spot Tuesday as Detroit was coming off a brutal loss Monday in a make-up game in Cincinnati.  A 5-0 lead over the Reds disappeared quickly via a 10-run inning and following yday's 8-7 loss, the club has now dropped five in a row.  Meanwhile, Los Angeles needed the off-day Monday as they'd just been swept at home by Toronto and entered this series on their own four-game skid. The Halos haven't played well in some time. They were in first place in the A.L. West on July 22nd, 14 games above .500 at the time, but since then have gone just 10-21 for one of the worst records in baseball during that stretch. So their chances of making it two straight are slim.

There used to be a time when the Tigers having Justin Verlander on the mound would put them in a price range unattractive to most bettors.  But that time has passed thanks in large part to Verlander's awful 2-10 team start record in 2015.  However, after a rough June, the former Cy Young winner has actually rounded back into form. He's allowed 1 ER or less in five of his past six starts and over the last three has a 0.45 ERA & 0.850 WHIP.  Three of the four runs he's allowed during that time have been unearned, which has cost him, but the bottom line is that it's encouraging to see him pitch so well. Last time out, he allowed just two runs (one earned) on four hits (7 IP), but unfortunately his offense "forgot to score."

Detroit's offense was just fine last night however, and it should have been, considering Angels' starter Jered Weaver's fastball topped out at just over 83 MPH.  Unfortunately, Alfredo Simon couldn't hold up his "end of bargain" as he allowed eight runs on nine hits and had massive control issues w/ four walks and three wild pitches.  Verlander should be much better tonight and the fact he has an 0-7 TSR at home has kept the price down. He should get the requisite amount of run support here considering the recent struggles of Angels' starter Hector Santiago, who is 0-3 w/ a 5.06 ERA his L6 starts.  The Angels are not a good road team, just 25-34 overall w/ losses in 12 of their last 14. This is still a revenge spot for the Tigers, who were swept in LA back in May.  8* Detroit

8* Los Angeles (7:05 ET):  Both teams here have been playing well of late.  Indiana has won six in a row and now trails New York by just one-half game for first place in the Eastern Conference after beating the Liberty (here at home) by a single point Sunday as 2.5-pt favorite. That was just their second non-cover in the L10 games, a stretch that did see them defeat tonight's opponent, on the road, 79-68 as four-point dogs.  For tonight's rematch, the Fever are again in the role of favorite, deservedly so, but the Sparks are a live dog here considering they're off B2B impressive wins themselves, including a 31-point blowout on Sunday. They've won 7 of 10 overall and are 5-1 ATS the last six times taking points, including four outright wins.

Los Angeles is 2-0 SU/ATS on its current road trip w/ wins over Phoenix and San Antonio.  As mentioned earlier, they destroyed the woeful Stars Sunday, 90-51 as five-point chalk.  They shot 54.4% from the floor, compared to only 26.8% for their opponents, and while that discrepancy will be almost impossible to duplicate here, they did actually outshoot the Fever overall in last week's meeting.  But the issue was three-point shooting.  Indiana went 10 for 19 from three-point range while LA was just 1 for 13. Sadly, that's pretty much "par for the course" as the Fever lead the league in three-point shooting and the Sparks are dead last. But it can't be ignored that Indiana was just 15 for 49 from two-point range in that last meeting. You're not going to win many games shooting like that.

This game be may a bit of a "letdown spot" for the favored Fever after beating the one team ahead of them in the standings.  Consider that despite winning eight in a row at home, they have a losing ATS record here for the season (5-7) due in large part to the fact they allow 76.1 points per game.  Los Angeles has overcome a rough start to the season (where they were plagued by injuries) to climb back into fourth place in a dreadful Western Conference and has won four of five on the road, straight up. For the year, they're being outscored by only 2.4 PPG on the road.   Take the points here.  8* Los Angeles