8* Buffalo (3:30 ET): Historically speaking, this is not a great spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are just 4-11 ATS as a home favorite going back to 2017 and they are only 2-7 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit favorite against a FBS opponent. They’ve lost five of the last seven times they’ve been favored, including the opener against Illinois, a game they were favored to win by more than a TD yet trailed by as many as 21. Scott Frost’s team did bounce back with a 52-7 win last week, but that was against FCS Fordham. That didn’t convince me they should be laying DD to a very live dog this week. 

Meanwhile, Buffalo has traditionally thrived in this situation. They are on a 9-2-1 ATS run as underdogs, which is the second best cover percentage taking points in the FBS going back to 2017. They are 4-0-1 ATS when getting double digits. Typically one of the best MAC teams (won the East Division last year), the Bulls are expected to take a step back in 2021 due to a late coaching change (Lance Leipold took the Kansas job in April) and a bevy of transfers that followed. But everything looked good last week when they completely overwhelmed FCS Wagner 69-7 in the opener. The offense gained 569 yards in the win. 

Nebraska just can’t be trusted under Frost as they’ve gone just 13-21 straight up during his tenure and never finished a season above .500. The program’s incredible streak of selling out home games has reached 376, but that’s because donors are now buying and distributing tickets. Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine games vs Big 10 teams and won’t be intimidated going into Lincoln. There are upcoming road games at Oklahoma and Michigan State that may be on the Nebraska coaching staff’s minds. But they figure to have Buffalo’s full attention Saturday and I’m taking the points. In their L18 games vs. FBS teams, Nebraska has just ONE win by more than seven points. 8* Buffalo

10* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): No La Liga side was able to take the full nine points the first three weeks of the season. However, two of the eight that have yet to taste defeat will meet Saturday afternoon. Mallorca, a newly promoted side, has won two straight after their return to the Spanish top flight began with a 1-1 draw against Real Betis. But those wins came against Alaves (who sits at the bottom of the table) and Espanyol (another recently promoted side). I can’t see them making it four in a row without a defeat, so I’ll go with Athletic Bilbao to get the full three points in this one. 

Athletic Bilbao has one win and two draws to its name so far. A scoreless draw with Elche is not how they were hoping to open this campaign, but a 1-1 draw with Barcelona was more impressive and then they finally broke through with a win two weeks ago, 1-0 at Celta Vigo. Remember that Athletic Club finished in the top half of the table a season ago and would have ended up higher than 10th had they not dropped their final three matches. 

I know that goal scoring can be an issue for Bilbao, but they had the sixth best defensive record in La Liga last season. They’ve conceded only one time so far in three matches and that was against Barca. This is a team that played in both Copa del Rey Finals in 2020 and also won the Super Cup. They are the more proven side at this level compared to Mallorca, who have done surprisingly well for a recently promoted side. When you look across La Liga, the EPL and Bundesliga, Mallorca is the only freshly promoted side to have won twice in their first three fixtures. They are due for a loss. 10* Athletic Bilbao

10* Northern Illinois (1:30 ET): This could be a bit of a “sleepy” start for Wyoming as kickoff takes place at 12:30 local time in DeKalb. I can’t say that the Cowboys were all that impressive last week as they barely snuck by FCS Montana State, winning by a score of 19-16 as 19-point favorites after scoring a touchdown in the final minute. They led for just over five minutes of actual game time and were only +26 in total yards while gaining the same # of first downs as Montana State (17). Now they hit the road where they’ve lost seven of nine the previous two years. Take the points in this one. 

Northern Illinois definitely turned in one of the more surprising results of the opening weekend, beating Georgia Tech 22-19 as 19-point underdogs. Now, it would be a mistake to overreact to just one game, especially considering the Huskies were outgained in Atlanta by 128 yards and had 10 fewer first downs. But they also led most of the way and allowed just one touchdown through three quarters. It was a gutsy decision by HC Thomas Hammock that decided the game as he decided to go for two and the win after scoring a TD in the final minute. That should give his players plenty of confidence heading into the home opener. 

Northern Illinois went 0-6 SU last year, but figures to be much improved in 2021 as QB Rocky Lombardi transferred into the program after starting six games for Michigan State last year. Lombardi threw two touchdown passes in the opener and is joined by 19 returning starters. Wyoming won just two games last year and couldn’t score a TD until the 4Q last week vs. a FCS foe. Now they are laying points on the road? Seems questionable. My power rankings have this line as basically a pick ‘em, so I’ll grab the points with a team hungry for its first home win since the 2019 finale. 10* Northern Illinois

8* Army (11:30 AM ET): The Black Knights marched right over Georgia State in Week 1, winning 43-10 as 2.5-point underdogs. A 67-4 run to pass ratio wasn’t a problem considering the Cadets jumped out to a quick 21-0, scoring touchdowns on each of their first three drives. The defense allowed just 177 total yards, most of that coming on Georgia State’s two scoring drives. Now it’s back to West Point for the home opener where they’ll host a Western Kentucky team that could be looking ahead to next week. That’s a problem when facing the triple option. Lay the points in this one. 

The reason WKU could be looking ahead is because next week they’ll be hosting Indiana. There was no “lookahead” to this game as the Hilltoppers crushed Tennessee Martin last week 59-10. But that’s a FCS team and little can be taken from that game. I know that HC Tyson Helton has been great as an underdog and his team should improve upon LY’s 5-7 mark, but the offense averaged just 19.0 PPG in 2020 and you have to be concerned with the fact the defense just allowed 201 yards rushing on 34 carries last week. Needless to say, the triple option is a lot tougher to stop than the UT Martin ground game. 

Army has never beaten WKU in three all-time tries. The most recent meeting took place in 2019 and was a 17-8 loss as five-point road favorites in Bowling Green. The upperclassmen still remember that defeat and it’s not like the Black Knights aren’t already motivated to play their home opener on September 11th. A win here and a 4-0 start is a real possibility with home games vs. UConn and Miami OH on deck. I also think the early start time favors the home team in this one. Army is 8-2 ATS its L10 games as a favorite and feels undervalued here. I like that the line has come down a bit. 8* Army

8* Wolfsburg (9:30 AM ET): It hasn’t been the most impressive 3-0 start ever, but Wolfsburg sits alone atop the Bundesliga table after three weeks as the only side to have taken the full nine points. This was a team that finished fourth last season, guaranteeing them a spot in the Champions League, which begins in the next few days. But this weekend all eyes are on the domestic front as they travel to face what looks like maybe the worst side in the entire Bundesliga. I can’t see anything but Wolfsburg taking the full three here. 

Quite frankly, I am shocked that the line isn’t higher here based on how Greuther Furth has looked in its first three matches. The recently promoted side has captured just one point thus far and it came against another bottom of the table side (Arminia Bielefeld) in a 1-1 draw. Even then, they were fortunate to get the point as Bielefeld was down to 10 men over the last 20 minutes of the match. I had no hesitation in fading Furth their last time out as they lost 3-0 to Mainz. They looked positively horrid in that fixture. It figures to be a very long season for Furth, who is competing in the German top flight for only the second time in its history. The first came back in 2013 when they finished last. I would be shocked if they weren’t relegated back to the 2 for 2021/22. 

Two weeks ago, Wolfsburg picked up its most impressive win to date when they defeated RB Leipzig (LY’s 2nd place finisher) 1-0. The Wolves have conceded only one time in three matches. I know their first two fixtures (Bochum, Hertha Berlin) were both favorable, but they handled their business just as they should here. The way they were eliminated from the DFB-Pokal (for an illegal substitution) will ensure first year manager Mark van Bommell keeps his charges on their toes. As humiliating a scenario as that was, at least it wasn’t as bad as Furth losing to an amateur side in that particular tournament. Since earning their promotion from the Bundesliga 2 back in may, Furth has yet to win a single time across all competitions. 8* Wolfsburg

7* Oakland (9:40 ET): Texas has matched a season-high with four straight wins - all of them coming on the road. Prior to the current streak, they’d never won more than three in a row away from home at any point this season. There had only been a pair of three-game road win streaks and both took place before Memorial Day, one in early May against Minnesota and one in April at Tampa Bay. After beating the Angels twice, the Rangers then swept a pair of games at Arizona (who has the worst record in all of baseball). However, I just can’t see this streak continuing as Texas is still 20-51 on the road in 2021. 

Now Oakland has had its share of problems with Texas this season. The A’s are just 9-7 in the head to head series, but they did sweep a three-game series the last time the Rangers visited. Given where Oakland is in the standings, you’d think they would have had more success against the last place team in their division. But that’s all “water under the bridge” now. Trailing by two games in the Wild Card race, the A’s need more wins in a hurry. I think this weekend offers up an excellent opportunity to make up ground. They are already coming off B2B wins, here at home, over the White Sox. 

Having a day off has been no advantage for the Rangers as they are just 4-16 in that situation this season. Oakland is 9-3 as a home favorite of -175 to -250, so this really is a game they should win. The L2 days really were a step in the right direction as they held the White Sox to two runs. I like Paul Blackburn being the one to toe the rubber tonight as he’s allowed just two runs in 10 ⅔ IP in two home starts. It’s also a small sample size with Rangers’ starter Glenn Otto, who will be making just his third start of 2021. In the end, I just can’t see a Texas team that ranks 28th or lower in batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS winning a fifth straight road game. 7* Oakland

8* Kansas (7:30 ET): Yes, the Jayhawks are still reeling from the mess left by the Les Miles’ regime and their 17-14 opening week victory over FCS South Dakota was certainly less than inspiring. The Jackrabbits even outgained them (slightly). But don’t tell that to the fanbase, who stormed the field after a 13-game SU losing skid ended last Friday in Lawrence. It took a late TD pass (with just 1:12 remaining) to get the win, but an outright win this week is not a concern of mine. All we need Lance Leipold’s team to do here is stay within three touchdowns + a field goal. I think they can do that. Take the points Friday night. 

Now Coastal Carolina is ranked #17 in the country, so this will not be easy for Kansas by any means. The Chanticleers rolled in their opening game (also against a FCS team), winning 52-14 as a 34-point favorite. They rolled up over 600 total yards on The Citadel. But even with this being a nationally televised game in Conway, it has the feel of a “letdown spot” for Coastal. Unlike the last two seasons, they have nothing to prove against Kansas, a P5 team they’ve previously beaten twice on the road. Those two wins in Lawrence were both by 15 points or less and Coastal was also an underdog in both games! It’s a totally different dynamic this time around. 

Coastal Carolina was Kansas’ only non-conference opponent in 2020. That was obviously a loss, but the previous two years did see the Jayhawks win both non-conf road games on the schedule. Each win - at Central Michigan in ‘18 and at Boston College in ‘19 - was by 24 points! It is crazy to think back and realize that KU was favored over CC last year. After all, they finished the season 0-9 while the Chanticleers had a 10-0 regular season record (lost in the bowl). Now CC goes from the “hunter” to “the hunted” and I wonder how they adjust. They were not favored by more than 17 in any game last season and were actually DOGS in 5 of their 12 games. 8* Kansas

10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Minnesota has clearly been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season. That’s verified by the fact they are -23.4 units, making them one of the top four money-burning teams. But this series has gone well for the Twins. They’ve come in and won the first three games in Cleveland, the last two being a pair of 3-0 shutouts. It’s the first time in over two years that the team has won B2B games in shutout fashion. They’ve also matched a season-high with four straight road wins. But sweeping a four-game series on the road is hard to do and I don’t see that happening here. 

Prior to being shutout each of the last two days, Cleveland had homered in 20 consecutive games, which was the longest such streak in franchise history. Losing five of their last six games has effectively ended whatever faint playoff hopes the Indians still had left. But I’m a big believer today because of Cal Quantrill, who has pitched much better than his 6-12 team start record would seem to indicate. His last time out was the first time he dropped a decision going back to June 6th. He’d previously gone 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA over a 15-start stretch where he’d allowed 3 ER or less 13 times. Seven of Quantrill’s eight quality starts have come here at Progressive Field. 

Twins’ starter Randy Dobnak has had the Indians’ number in the past. His best start of 2021 came against them back on May 21st. But that’s also his ONLY win of the season! Following a near three-month absence (due to a finger injury), Dobnak returned to the mound last week and gave up five runs in a loss at Tampa Bay. He has a 6.29 ERA in six starts. Quantrill, unbeaten in 11 home starts with a 2.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, is the better pitcher in this matchup and I believe all signs point to Cleveland avoiding the sweep. 10* Cleveland

10* Oakland (9:40 ET): When the A’s faced the White Sox last month, they lost the first three games of the series before avoiding a sweep with a 5-4 win in the series finale. That was in Chicago. They hope it doesn’t get to that point again here at home. It was a 6-3 loss yesterday to Chicago in the opener of a three-game set. The A’s have now lost four in a row (were swept in Toronto over the weekend) and have fallen 3.5 games back of the Wild Card. But with what looks to be a tremendous advantage in today’s starting pitching matchup, I’ll say Oakland won’t have to wait until the final game of this series to defeat the White Sox. 

The White Sox do lead their division by 11 games, matching the biggest edge for any first place team in the sport. But they are just a .500 proposition on the road (34-34) including 1-4 as a ML dog of +125 to +175. Note that they were NOT in that same price range for Tuesday’s game. A shockingly solid effort on the mound from rookie Jimmy Lambert is what keyed yesterday’s win. But it’s tough to imagine Chicago will get the same kind of pitching performance here from Dallas Keuchel, who has been just brutal of late. Over his last three starts, Keuchel has a 16.00 ERA and 3.111 WHIP. He’s allowed five or more runs in each of those three starts. 

The A’s will counter with Frankie Montas as they desperately look for a win this evening. Montas is working on extended rest here as he couldn’t pitch in the Toronto series due to visa issues. Considering how Montas has been pitching, the team has to be thrilled to have him on the mound Wednesday. They were 8-6 winners over Detroit the last time he pitched with Montas allowing just three runs and five hits in 6 ⅔ IP. Prior to that, he’d not given up a single run in 14 IP. There’s been only one start since the beginning of June where Montas allowed more than 3 ER. It’s a major edge with him opposing Keuchel. 10* Oakland

8* Arizona (3:40 ET): There’s an inherent risk when playing a bad team and that came back to bite me yesterday when I lost with the D’backs. However, I still strongly believe in everything I said in that analysis and will come back with the home team again today. Hosting Texas is one of the few times one can call a matchup “favorable” for Arizona. While the Rangers have matched a season-high with three consecutive road wins, they are just 19-51 away from home for the season. An offense that ranks 28th or lower in batting average, OBP, slugging & OPS now loses the DH and thus becomes even weaker. 

The Rangers only scored three runs last night, so my comments regarding the disadvantage they face in a NL park ring true. They got all three runs in one inning. Besides that one inning, they had just one hit the entire game. The key to the win were shocking efforts on the mound from Spencer Howard (who opened) and then Jordan Lyles, who came in having allowed the most hits and home runs of any American League pitcher this season. I just can’t envision a similar effort from today’s starter Kohei Arihara, who returned from injury last week. In each of his final three starts before getting hurt, Arihara allowed 5+ runs. 

Arizona starter Luke Weaver also made a return from injury last week. Unlike Arihara, he was victorious. He allowed just one run and four hits in six innings as the D’backs beat the Padres 8-3. In five starts at home this year, Weaver has a 1.32 ERA and 0.805 WHIP. He’s allowed a combined one run and nine hits the last three times he’s pitched. As mentioned above, Texas has not won more than three straight on the road all season. A four-game win streak, which is what they are going for this afternoon, would match a season-high. They are 1-6 when off three straight wins (of any kind) in 2021. 8* Arizona

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): Endorsements of the D’backs have obviously been few and far between in 2021. But facing the Rangers at home is one of the few times they actually have a distinct advantage. Texas is every bit as bad as Arizona is, when it comes to playing on the road. There are three teams in MLB that have hideous road records and these are definitely two of them (Colorado is the other). The Rangers are 18-51 away from home while the D’backs are 17-52. This game is in Arizona, which also means that an already weak-hitting Texas lineup loses its designated hitter. Yes, Arizona is the right side here. 

Here’s another edge for the D’backs today: they were off Monday. Now, after dropping eight of their last nine, they needed the off day. Especially on the heels of three very tough losses to Seattle here at home, two of which were decided in extra innings. Zac Gallen, who has a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 ERA his L3 starts, will toe the rubber on Tuesday. He’s allowed just five runs, two unearned, and 11 hits in 18 IP. As alluded to earlier, the Rangers are very weak offensively. They rank 28th (third worst) or lower in team batting average, OBP, slugging percentage and OPS. Now you take away the DH from the already weak lineup. 

Texas was a winner yesterday, 4-0, as they ended up earning a split of a four-game series in Los Angeles. Prior to winning each of the last two days, the Rangers had even fewer road wins than the D’backs this season. I just can’t see a third straight win away from home. This is the first time since early May that Texas can say it’s won back to back road games. There have been only a pair of three-game win streaks on the road for them this season. Both times, all three wins came against the same opponent. Tonight’s starter Spencer Howard is still winless this season and has been terrible in the last three with a 9.82 ERA and 1.774 WHIP. 8* Arizona

10* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): What was supposed to be a pitchers duel between Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff instead turned into a one-sided massacre as the Phillies crushed the Brewers 12-0 Monday afternoon. That was the Brew Crew’s fifth loss against the Phils in 2021 and they have zero wins against them. Certainly there’s no reason to panic in Milwaukee as the team still holds an 11-game lead in the NL Central. That’s the largest division lead in all of MLB. But they’d certainly love a win over the Phillies. I think they’re gonna get it tonight!

Philadelphia came into this series having dropped two of three in Miami over the weekend. They remain firmly in the races for the NL East (1.5 games back) and Wild Card (2 games back). But a losing record on the road and a negative YTD run differential have me skeptical of their future. They hit SIX home runs yesterday, including a grand slam in the 8th inning that broke the game open. All but one of their 12 runs was via the HR. I don’t think that the long ball is going to be as big of a factor today as Brewers’ starter Eric Lauer has not given up a HR at American Family Field since June 1st. He’s coming off an impressive effort last Thursday in San Francisco where he allowed only one run and three hits in seven innings. 

Phillies’ starter Aaron Nola has never lost to the Brewers in seven career starts. That includes a win back in May. But there’s a first time for everything and Nola is off a terrible start in which he allowed six runs to the Washington Nationals last week. He also owns a 5.37 ERA in 12 September starts going back to 2019. I realize Milwaukee doesn’t have the best record coming off a shutout loss this season and they have more wins on the road than at home. But there’s a sense of pride that kicks in after a loss like yesterday’s. Look for a strong answer from the Brew Crew on Tuesday. 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss (8:00 ET): Well, the big news here is that Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin will NOT be on the sidelines due to testing positive for COVID-19. This is certainly not a position the Rebels expected to be in after Kiffin had announced, just earlier this month, that the program had achieved a 100% vaccination rate. In the wake of this shocking news, I’m really surprised that we’ve seen little movement with either the side or the total. You have to think Kiffin’s absence on the sideline will loom large. The total has remained extremely high and thus I’m going with the Under Monday night. 

The Ole Miss offense was very good last year and figures to be again in 2021. But not having Kiffin will impact this side of the ball more than it will to the defense. It was only about four months ago that the O-Line coach was fired after the Spring Game. As of press time, it is not even known who will be serving as Ole Miss HC for this game. What is known is they are facing a Louisville defense that ranked fourth in the ACC in yards allowed last year. Seven starters are back from that group, which should be strong yet again. The Ole Miss defense also figures to be better than it was in 2020, if only because it can’t be any worse. 

The Rebels had the lowest ranked defense in the SEC a season ago. While there are definitely some great defenses in that conference, Ole Miss definitely struggled. With an offense that was excellent and a defense that was terrible, Rebels’ games averaged 77.5 PPG last season. I don’t think we’re getting to that number Monday night. Through Saturday’s games, the Under is 47-26-1 this CFB season. Even if Kiffin were coaching, this number seems like a “tough ask” in the opening game. 10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss

8* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): I’m travelling this weekend and will actually be at this game. On paper, it looks like a tantalizing matchup of starting pitchers with Zack Wheeler set to oppose Brandon Woodruff. But I am favoring Woodruff and the Brew Crew on Monday for several reasons. First off, they have revenge. Milwaukee got swept by Philadelphia back in early May. The Brewers were a much different team then. They are 30 games over .500 since Memorial Day Weekend and are poised to easily win the NL Central.

Secondly, Woodruff has simply been better than Wheeler, especially of late. The Phillies’ starter has a 6.53 ERA his L3 starts. He’s given up a total of 21 runs the L4 starts. Wheeler was bailed out by his offense his last time out in a win over the last place Nationals. But he can’t count on a ton of run support tonight as Woodruff owns a 2.08 ERA at home. In 26 starts this season, he has a 2.35 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. The fact he’s not even the top pitcher in starting rotation (Burnes is) speaks volumes. 

The Brewers have also been awesome in day games this season, going 38-18. The Phillies are below .500 on the road after dropping two of three at Miami over the weekend. Milwaukee comes in hot as well. They’ve won six of eight including each of the last two days. They are the superior ballclub compared to Philly, so I just can’t see them losing to them again. Woodruff is working on five days rest here, a situation where he’s been at his best, not just in 2021 but throughout his career. 8* Milwaukee

10* Run Line Toronto (1:05 ET): First off, this is a run line where I am backing the Blue Jays at +1.5. My view of this team has been pretty well-documented at this point. Considering they have outscored their opponents by 128 runs this season (6th best differential in MLB!), it’s very fair to say the team is better than its 73-62 record. They are coming off a three-game sweep of Oakland over the weekend (I had them both Friday and Saturday) but still four games back of the Wild Card and need to pass two teams.

One of the teams ahead of the Jays in the WC race is the Yankees. The Pinstripes currently hold the 1st WC spot, so the Jays don’t necessarily have to pass them. But winning this series is pretty imperative when it comes to narrowing the gap between them and the Red Sox. Also, a Seattle team that has totally overachieved in 2021 is playing Houston this week and will be a big dog in every game. So a successful series here would likely allow Toronto to catch, or even pass, the Mariners. The Blue Jays have legit revenge coming into Monday as they were swept by the Yanks the last time they faced them (back in June). 

I love the idea of getting an additional run and a half with Toronto. This team is rarely a ML dog. It’s happened only ONCE since the start of August! They’ll send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound Monday. He has a 2.50 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Yankees this season and this is only the second time all year Ryu is off B2B losses. The Blue Jays scored 29 runs in the last three games, so I look for another big day at the plate here against Jameson Taillon, who has allowed a total of 11 ER his L2 starts. The Jays do no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* Florida State (7:30 ET): Notre Dame is coming off another run to the College Football Playoff. As per usual, they ended up being embarrassed, albeit not as bad as usual. The Fighting Irish’s season ended with a 31-14 loss to Alabama on New Year’s Day, their second straight loss after a 10-0 start. Brian Kelly’s team opens this season ranked in the top 10, but my guess is that the Irish aren’t going to be nearly as good in 2021 as they have a very inexperienced offense and most factors are pointing down. 

Last season was not normal for any team, but COVID-19 really hit Florida State’s ranks hard and the end result was a very disappointing first year under Mike Norvell. The Seminoles finished just 3-6 and had nearly a month with no games due to COVID. Their only wins over FBS opponents came against North Carolina (by three) and Duke (season finale). But with a full offseason to properly prepare, Norvell should have the ‘Noles back to respectability in 2021. I think tonight’s opener is a classic case of an unranked home team being undervalued against a Top 25 opponent. 

All eyes will be on the QB position in this game. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan is set to start for ND. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line with four new starters though, so expect some growing pains. Florida State has not yet announced who its starting QB will be, but it could be McKenzie Milton, a former UCF standout who suffered a terrible injury back in 2018. If not, it will be Jordan Travis. Either way, I look for FSU to put some points on the board in this matchup. Offense was Norvell’s “bread and butter” at previous stops. The defense can only get better as well. Look for the underdog to surprise here. Take the points. 8* Florida State

10* Run Line Atlanta (3:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Braves -1.5. Yes, I know that the first three games of this series have all been decided by one run and Colorado has won two of them. Plus, the Rockies are a lot tougher at home (45-23) than they are on the road (18-50). But this Braves team is poised to win the NL East for the fourth year in a row in my eyes. They are the lone team in their division with a positive run differential (+87). But having lost two in a row, their lead is still just two games over the Phillies (who have also lost B2B games). A win Sunday would be huge and I think they prevail by at least two runs. 

Charlie Morton will get the starting nod today for Atlanta. He’s been very good of late, in particular his last time out when he held the Dodgers to one run and three hits over six innings. Sadly, the Braves didn’t get the win in that one (they lost 3-2), but it was the 9th time in his L10 starts that Morton allowed 3 ER or less. He’s gone at least six innings while allowing two runs or fewer in five of his last six outings. Morton is a veteran so I don’t see him being fazed by the unique elements of Coors Field. He’s pitched here many times before. 

Colorado made a pitching change for today, because of injury, going with Ryan Feltner instead of Austin Gomber. This will be Feltner’s big league debut, so it’s the home pitcher that will be at a bigger disadvantage today with Coors Field. A Rockies’ bullpen that has an ERA over 5.00 will likely be pressed into duty, which isn’t good for them. I know Atlanta has played five straight one-run games, but today will break the trend as they pick up a much-needed win. 10* Run Line Atlanta (-1.5)

8* Washington State (11:00 ET): Utah State had an uncharacteristically poor 2020 season. The Aggies sank to a 1-5 record and fired HC Gary Anderson after an 0-3 start. It wasn't just a bad record though. USU was just plain BAD as all five losses were by 19 points or greater. In the COVID shortened season, oddsmakers struggled to adjust to just how bad the Aggies had become. They also finished 1-5 ATS. Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas State to try and right the ship in Logan. But I still think the Aggies are pretty bad. Lay the points in this one. 

Washington State played only four games in 2020 and finished just 1-3. Running back Max Borghi, who was a preseason nominee for the Doak Walker Award (best RB), played in only one game. The Cougars’ three losses were to Oregon, USC and Utah, obviously three of the Pac 12’s better teams. They’ve got 15 returning starters and should be improved. I’ve got them finishing third in the Pac 12 North behind Washington and Oregon.

Both coaches are being coy about their starting quarterbacks for the opener. For Wazzu it will be either incumbent Jayden de Laura or Tennessee transfer Jarrett Guarantano. For Utah State, it will be either Andrew Peasley or Logan Bonner. What we do know is that the home team’s offense will be better. It’s all about the defense hopefully being better, especially against the pass. This one being in Pullman definitely helps Wazzu. Utah State is just 3-8 ATS as an underdog the previous two seasons. 8* Washington State

8* UCLA (8:30 ET): The Bruins treated me so well last week that I had to come crawling back to Chip Kelly again. Now LSU is obviously not going to be a pushover like Hawaii was. The Bruins raced out a huge 24-3 lead after the 1Q and never had to look back against the Warriors. RB Zach Charbonnet ran for three touchdowns in the win, which saw Kelly take his foot off the pedal in the second half. But if you recall, LSU’s run defense was quite bad a year ago during a very disappointing 5-5 SU season.

The fact that the Bruins so thoroughly dominated Hawaii, despite not getting a great game from QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, I think is a good sign. Crazy as it may sound, I expect DTR to have a much better game against LSU. I think it’s a big advantage that UCLA has played a game while LSU hasn’t. LSU is breaking in new coordinators for both sides of the ball. The Bruins’ offense averaged 35 PPG in 2020 with DTR at the helm. I wouldn’t be at all worried about last week’s 50% completion rate.

In last week’s analysis I talked about how UCLA’s four losses last year came by a total of 15 points. They were certainly better than their WL record. Most starters are back. The defense looks improved, which is all that is needed after the team was somehow 0-4 SU LY in games where the offense scored 34 or more points. Kelly’s offense went three-and-out at the 18th lowest rate in the country last season. We all know it was a down year for LSU, but they were lucky to even go 5-5 SU as they won their final two games despite QB Max Johnson completing only 55% of his passes vs. Ole Miss and Florida. The Tigers were 3-1 SU in one-score games as well. Their practice week was disrupted by Hurricane Irma, forcing them to practice in Houston before heading to the West Coast. I’m taking the points. 8* UCLA

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): The post-Frank Solich era begins in Athens Saturday night as the Bobcats host Syracuse of the ACC. It’ll be the first ACC school to ever visit Peden Stadium. So this is a big opportunity right out of the gate for new HC Tim Albin, who takes over from Solich after serving as his OC the L16 seasons. It was a very abbreviated final season for Solich as OU played only three games. They won twice and suffered a three-point loss at Central Michigan. Again, expect them to be one of the better MAC teams in 2021, despite the abrupt coaching change. 

Syracuse is not one of the better ACC teams, obviously. They were 1-10 SU a year ago, the lone win coming against Georgia Tech. Eight of their losses were by double digits. So it immediately caught my eye to see a team like this favored on the road, even if it’s ever so slightly. In my view, oddsmakers are overrating the coaching change at Ohio. I’d have them favored on a neutral field over Syracuse. So getting them at home, where they will be more of an advantage compared to last year, makes the Bobcats a must play. 

Ohio has been pretty strong at home the last few seasons. In Solich’s first ever home game, they beat Pitt, the program’s last win over an ACC opponent (2005). What a story if Albin replicates the achievement. Both teams plan to play multiple QBs Saturday night, but I like Ohio’s options better. Syracuse had terrible QB play a season ago and it’s the same arms that they are relying on this season. The Orange defense allowed 30+ points eight times in 2020 as they struggled to learn a new alignment. I just don’t think there’s much reason to expect Syracuse to be that improved for Dino Babers. 10* Ohio

8* Under Alabama/Miami FL (3:30 ET): We all know about Alabama. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are off another championship season and will be favored for the 81st straight time this week as they open the 2021 season against #14 Miami. It speaks volumes that the Tide are this large of a favorite against a top 15 team at a neutral setting. But then again, they are 11-2 ATS in season openers under Saban. When faced with a ranked opponent in the first game, ‘Bama is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS with every win coming by double digits. In fact those six wins were by an average of almost 24 PPG! Atlanta has been kind to Saban through the years. 

So this is probably not the appropriate time to make the annual declaration that “The U is back!” Miami is just 3-10 ATS vs. teams ranked #1 or #2 going back to ‘93. But I do think that the Hurricanes’ defense can keep the team in it and thus ensure a pretty low-scoring game. This Alabama offense is YOUNG. There are 15 first or second year players on the two-deep with that unit, including QB Bryce Young, three offensive linemen and four wide receivers. Plus you’ve got a new playcaller in Bill O’ Brien. Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is a lot more experienced than it was a year ago. 

Of course Alabama’s defense will be pretty good too! They had 21 sacks over the final five games last year. They too are experienced with seven starters back. It is thought there are four future NFL starters among the linebacking group. Miami QB D’Eriq King is very good, but this one will be one of the best defenses he’s ever faced. He’s also coming off knee surgery. The Canes won’t score much. 8* Under Alabama/MIami

9* Toronto (3:07 ET): I’m going to continue to ride the Blue Jays. If they end up making a run to the playoffs, then circle last night’s win as the potential catalyst. They came from behind three different times to defeat the A’s 11-10. Marcus Semien won the game in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run HR. While Toronto is still five games back of the Wild Card and needs to pass three teams, they have a run differential of +118 that is vastly superior to the other clubs they are competing against for the WC. 

While I was repulsed by Seattle again winning by one run last night, it was quite refreshing to see Toronto do the same. The Blue Jays have struggled in close games this season, which is why they are a game back of a Mariners team that has a -55 run differential. But the worm has started to turn a bit when it comes to the Jays and close games. Four of their last five wins have been by one run margins. I take this as a sign of positive regression and reason NOT to give up on their playoff chances. 

I look forward to a big Toronto win this afternoon. They enter Saturday now two games back of Oakland. This weekend is huge for the Jays’ playoff prospects. They’ll send Jose Berrios to the bump this afternoon as he looks to replicate his most recent outing where he held the Tigers to just one unearned run over seven innings. Berrios had 11 strikeouts, his most since his first start of the season, in the win. After scoring nine runs in the final two innings last night, the Jays have to be “flying high.” They’ll do damage against A’s starter Paul Blackburn. 9* Toronto

8* Marc-Andre Barriault (2:05 ET): This will be the second fight on the prelims of UFC Fight Night 191 this Saturday. It is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). We’ve got Barriault, who is 12-4 overall but just 1-3 in the UFC, taking on Dalcha Lungiambula (11-2 overall, 2-1 UFC). I like the favorite (Barriault) to get his hand raised in this one as he’s got far better stamina and has proven he can absorb damage. Expect him to win this one late, either via stoppage or by decision. 

Barriault’s 1-3 UFC record is a little misleading in the sense that he had a win over Oskar Piechota overturned by the NSAC due to a positive drug test. He knocked out Piechota in the second round. Now we can all debate whether or not that was because of nefarious means. But there was nothing nefarious about his third round stoppage of Abu Azaitar back in March. Barriault did lose his first three UFC fights - all by decision - but he’s never been stopped in his mixed martial arts career. Having knocked out his two previous opponents, this is the first time he’s had some real “momentum” since joining the UFC. 

Lungiambula is an interesting fighter at 185 lbs. He’d previously fought at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs) and Heavyweight prior to coming to the UFC. So it’s a challenge just to make weight in the MW division. In his last fight, it was clear that he was running out of gas late, but held on for a decision win over Markus Perez. That was back in January. Lugiambula had been KO’d in his previous fight, by Magomed Ankalaev, back in November of 2019. I just don’t see him being able to hold on at the end of this fight like he did against Perez. He’s not been in good shape heading into the final round either of those last two fights. 8* Marc-Andre Barriault

8* Fresno State (2:00 ET): I think this is going to be a really challenging spot for #11 Oregon. This is the Ducks’ first game and they’ve got #4 Ohio State on deck. Fresno State already has a game under its belt, that being a 45-0 shutout of sorry UConn last week. They only have a game with FCS Cal Poly to “worry about” next week. The Bulldogs certainly took no mercy on their hapless opponent last week, outgaining them 538-107 in a game that was 31-0 by halftime. Definitely take the points in this one. 

Since current HC Kaylen DeBoer came to the program in 2017 (as the offensive coordinator), FSU has been an excellent bet, going 24-9-2 ATS overall. That record includes a 12-4 ATS mark as an underdog. Certainly facing a “big name” Pac 12 school will have the Bulldogs motivated. In particular QB Jake Haener, who transferred out of Washington to be here. Haener threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns in the opener while completing 20 of 26 attempts. He didn’t even finish the third quarter. RB Ronnie Rivers now has the most rushing TDs in the history of the program with 45. 

Mario Cristobal is only 5-11-1 ATS all-time as a favorite of two touchdowns or greater. That includes a 3-8-1 ATS mark with Oregon. This is an early start time at Autzen, which could in turn lead to a bit of a “sleepy start” for the home team. I think it’s fair to say that the atmosphere in Eugene is a lot different at 11 AM local time as opposed to in primetime. No matter the score in the 4Q, I don’t think the Ducks are going to want to “expose the whole playbook” with Ohio State on deck. A classic lookahead spot for the favorite. 8* Fresno State

9* Under Rangers/Angels (9:40 ET): On paper, this is a game the Angels SHOULD win. They have Shohei Ohtani on the mound. They are facing a Rangers team that is an atrocious 16-49 on the road, including 5-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250. Conversely, the Angels are 9-1 as home favorites this year in the -175 to -250 price range. The Halos also just took two of three from a Yankees team that had been as hot as any team in baseball. But I’m not confident in the home team scoring many runs in this game. Thus, Under is the right play in this series opener. 

The Angels currently sit two games below .500 and are fourth in the AL West. There’s really no realistic path towards the playoffs. But at least they can relish the fact they have Ohtani on their roster. The two-way star did surprisingly struggle his last time out, giving up three homers and four runs in a loss to Baltimore. But prior to that one bad outing, he’d gone 5-0 his previous six starts, allowing only seven runs in 40 IP. Texas is the lowest scoring team in the American League and Ohtani is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA against them. There have been only four times this season where Ohtani allowed more than 2 ER. None of them came consecutively. So he’ll bounce back tonight. 

 The Angels are hitting only .214 the last seven games, so they have their issues at the plate as well. Tonight they’ll be facing Glenn Otto, who in his big league debut last Friday held Houston (highest scoring team in baseball) to just two hits in five innings. Otto didn’t allow a run or walk and had seven strikeouts. Unfortunately, the Rangers ended up losing 5-4, but for Otto it was a very strong effort. When these teams met in Arlington last month, three of the four games saw five or fewer total runs scored. 9* Under Rangers/Angels

10* Under Braves/Rockies (8:40 ET): These teams opened up a four-game series last night. Early on, it looked to be the typical high-scoring game at Coors Field. After the top of the fifth, the Braves led 6-5. But then the scoring halted and 6-5 was how the game ended. It was a critical win for Atlanta, whose lead in the NL East is down to two games over the surging Phillies. While the Rockies are terrible on the road (18-50 record), they are a team to be taken seriously at home where they’ve gone 43-23 this year. So I’m not going to make a play on the ML here. I think another (relatively) low-scoring game is on tap. Take the Under. 

I do think the Braves will end up winning their division. My confidence stems from the fact they are currently the only team in the NL East with a positive YTD run differential. It’s not like they are barely “in the black” either. They have scored 89 more runs than they’ve allowed. They give up only 3.8 runs per game on the road and have to feel pretty good about their chances here due to a 17-5 record this season as a road favorite of -125 to -175 (42-14 L3 seasons). Plus they have Huascar Ynoa on the bump and he’s got a 2.06 ERA and 0.866 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which stayed Under. 

Ynoa has allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts. But what has me on the Under rather than the Braves here is the fact Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela has also been pitching lights out of late. He has a 1.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts after an incredible outing on Sunday where he tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Dodgers. He retired the first 12 batters he faced.  It was the fourth straight quality start for Senzatela, who has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. None of Atlanta’s last 12 games have seen more than 11 total runs scored (Under is 9-1-2). The Rockies are 6-1 Under their L7 games. 10* Under Braves/Rockies

8* Toronto (7:07 ET): I’m sticking with the Blue Jays as they begin a critical three-game series with the A’s on Friday. As we’ve been through numerous times before, Toronto has drastically underperformed in terms of wins when you look at their +117 run differential (7th best in MLB). Based on that run differential, they’d be expected to have 79 wins on the season and be firmly in control of the AL Wild Card race. But they only have 70 wins and would need to pass three teams to get into the postseason. One of the three is Oakland, who did win yesterday afternoon (8-6 at Detroit) but is just 6-11 in its last 17 games. 

When measuring actual vs. expected win total, no team has underperformed more than Toronto this season. But this series opener looks to be a favorable matchup. Not only did Oakland play yesterday (while Toronto had the day off), the A’s were forced to call upon the bullpen more than they would have liked. Things were looking good with an early 8-0 lead, but then things got dicey as the Tigers got within two runs. Starting tonight for the A’s will be Sean Manaea, who has an 0-3 TSR and 9.00 ERA his L3 starts. Manaea has allowed seven home runs during that time. 

So I think Toronto’s offense, which has been less productive in recent weeks, is set to get back on track. Let’s not forget that after a nomadic season that saw them play most of their “home games” in either Dunedin, FL or Buffalo, NY, the Jays are now back in Toronto. Rookie Alek Manoah has a 5-1 TSR in home starts this season with 1.84 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Last time here, he held the White Sox to one run over six innings, a game the Jays won 2-1. Manoah followed that by holding Detroit to two runs on four hits in 6+ IP, another win for the team. C’mon Toronto, I’m not ready to give up on you yet! 8* Toronto

8* Charlotte (7:00 ET): These teams met last season and Duke delivered a 53-19 beatdown. But that was in Durham and in no way indicative of how the Blue Devils’ season went. David Cutcliffe’s team finished 2020 at 2-9 SU. Their only win besides the Halloween night thumping of Charlotte came three weeks earlier at Syracuse. They ended the season on 0-4 SU/ATS run where they gave up an average of 54 points per game (not a misprint!) and lost every time by no fewer than three touchdowns. Cutcliffe, who has given up playcalling duties, really has his work cut out with this Duke team entering 2021. 

Charlotte also won just two games last season. But they only played six times. Following the loss to Duke, the 49ers would get only one more game in - a 37-19 loss to Western Kentucky. So neither of these two teams has won since last Halloween. This will be the first time in school history that Charlotte has ever hosted a team from a Power 5 conference. So it’s a big deal. Last year’s matchup got out of hand quickly (Charlotte trailed 24-0 early in the 2Q), but again that was an outlier performance by Duke. An interesting note is that Charlotte actually had more first downs than Duke, 22-16! 

This is an experienced 49ers team that Duke will be facing this year. It starts at the QB position with redshirt senior Chris Reynolds, who has started 24 of the team’s last 25 games and thrown for over 5,000 yards in his career. The Duke secondary was like a sieve last season and they lost five of the top tacklers. Mark my words that the Blue Devils are going to struggle to keep Charlotte from scoring in this game and that’s a problem when you’re laying points on the road. Keep an eye on 49ers WR Victor Tucker, who might be the best player on the field Friday night. Charlotte is 3-0 SU/ATS the L3 times it’s been a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* Charlotte

10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee (8:00 ET): It’s been a LONG time since Bowling Green last tasted victory. You’d have to go all the way back to November 2nd, 2019 when they defeated Akron 35-6. The MAC was the last conference to commence play in 2020 so the Falcons played just five games last season. Not only did they lose all five, but the closest the Falcons got to anybody was 25 points. They were outscored 225-57! It’s an eight-game losing streak that they’re on entering 2021. They are 3-14 SU the L2 seasons, both wins coming when favored. They are 0-9 SU/ATS on the road during that time.

Meanwhile, Tennessee is starting over...again. Josh Heupel will be the once proud program’s fifth coach since the dismissal of Phil Fulmer back in 2008. He inherits a team that went 3-7 SU in 2020 and lost seven of its last eight games. While nowhere close to the doldrums that Scot Loeffler finds himself in at BGSU, Heupel really has his work cut out for him in the rugged SEC. But for now, all he needs to do is beat up on a clearly overmatched opponent in the season opener. The Vols are massive favorites Thursday night in Knoxville with the line quickly approaching five touchdowns.

Tennessee didn’t do a lot of scoring last year. But I expect Heupel to look to put a lot of points on the board here. It’s an easy opportunity to impress the fanbase in the first game. Bowling Green’s defense allowed more than 300 yards per game rushing in 2020. So the Volunteers should be able to move the ball at will. Heupel is going with Michigan transfer Joe Milton III as his starting QB, ahead of Va Tech transfer Hendon Hooker and holdover Harrison Bailey. Bowling Green returns its starting QB from LY, Matt McDonald, and I expect his completion percentage to improve. The Falcons will score enough on a Vols defense that gave up 30.1 PPG LY to help send this one Over. 10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee

8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota (8:00 ET): After losing to Alabama in the National Championship Game last January, Ohio State opens the new season ranked #4 in the country. They look to continue their Big 10 dominance on Thursday when they travel to face Minnesota. HC Ryan Day has done a tremendous job in Columbus and the 2020 squad was among the most explosive in the history of the program. But the Buckeyes have a new man under center, redshirt freshman CJ Stroud, who takes over for Justin Fields. With the new starting QB, I don’t think OSU is going to put a ton of points on the board … yet.

Minnesota was a disappointing 3-4 SU for PJ Fleck in 2020. That was a big drop off after going 11-2 SU in 2019. The Golden Gophers return most of their starters on offense, including QB Tanner Morgan. But Morgan’s top target, WR Chris Autman-Bell, suffered a leg injury in practice two weeks ago and is listed as a “game-time” decision for Thursday. I know that Mohamed Ibrahim, voted the Big 10’s best running back last year, is ready to go. But if the Gophers think this Ohio State defense is going to be as susceptible to the big play as it was last year, then they are in for a rude awakening.

This is a high total, likely based on how explosive the Ohio State offense was LAST season. But Fields is now in the NFL. I think there will be some early growing pains with Stroud. But the saving grace will be the improvement on the defensive end. There’s just no way the Buckeyes will rank 122nd in pass defense again. Morgan will struggle if Autman-Bell is out. His other primary target from last year, Rashod Bateman, is gone. Minnesota’s defense also figures to be better after allowing 40+ in the first two games of 2020. None of the last three meetings between these teams have seen more than 55 total pts scored. 8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota

10* San Francisco (3:45 ET): Things have taken a drastic turn in the NL West. After leading the division for all of June, July & August, the Giants have slipped to second place, thanks to matching their longest losing streak of the season (four games). The last three losses have all come here at home to Milwaukee, a team that is definitely going to win its division (NL Central) and could be a potential playoff opponent. But I just can’t see the Giants being swept in a four-game series at home and apparently neither can bettors as this line has been bet up rather swiftly. Thursday’s starter looks like the right guy for the job. 

That starter is Logan Webb. Not only has Webb not dropped a decision since losing May 5th at Coors Field, he has a perfect 8-0 team start record at home this season. Over his last 13 starts, Webb is 7-0 with a 1.47 ERA. He has allowed 2 ER or less in each of those L13 starts. He last pitched on Saturday and threw seven shutout innings of five-hit ball in Atlanta. That happens to be the Giants’ lone win in their L6 games. When he faced Milwaukee on the road last month, Webb allowed just one run and three in six innings. He has 1.75 ERA at home for the year. 

There’s no denying that Milwaukee is also an excellent team, particularly on the road. But remember that they did just drop two of three in Minnesota over the weekend. Sweeping a four-game series on the road is pretty tough to do, especially when the opponent is as good as the Giants. Eric Lauer, a southpaw with plenty of experience pitching here in San Francisco, will start today for the Brew Crew. The problem with the former Padre is that he hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in any of his L5 starts. That’s an even bigger problem now with Milwaukee having to use six relievers yesterday because of an injury to starter Brett Anderson. 10* San Francisco

8* Kansas City (8:10 ET): The Royals, like the Nationals, are another team hoping to avenge a prior sweep. They lost all three games in Cleveland back in early July. Their first attempt at revenge was unsuccessful as they went down 7-2 last night here at home. It was actually the Royals’ ninth straight time losing to the Tribe, a streak that goes all the way back to April. The Royals came into this series pretty hot, having won 10 of 14, while Cleveland was a real lucky winner on Sunday. Time for revenge to be exacted. 

The difference last night was Cleveland’s Amed Rosario becoming the first player in MLB history to go 5 for 5 with five RBIs while hitting an inside the park and traditional home run. That incredible individual effort came on the heels of a miraculous team rally on Sunday where the Indians, down 5-0 entering the sixth inning, ended up beating the Red Sox 7-5. They didn’t even have a hit in that game until the sixth. There is a chance the Indians may have to use a catcher from single-A for this game. 

Both teams have been toying around with their rotations. Logan Allen, who is having a terrible year, will start tonight for Cleveland. Allen has not recorded a win since April and the team is 1-7 when he starts. He’s made only three starts since April and the Indians have lost all of them. Kansas City has recalled Jackson Kowar from Triple-A Omaha to start here. This is only his third big league start. Despite the inexperience on the mound, the Royals still should win this game as they are certainly overdue to beat the Indians. Over the last month, they have been the better team. Salvador Perez had homered in five straight games going into yesterday. 8* Kansas City

8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Blue Jays -1.5. From Toronto’s perspective, last night’s 4-2 loss to the Orioles is completely unacceptable. They are in the midst of a five-team race for the Wild Card and need to make up 4.5 games while passing at least three teams. I continue to believe the Jays are so much better than their record. They have the 7th best run differential in the sport, a far more impressive number than the teams they are competing against for the Wild Card. They simply cannot afford a second straight loss to the team with the worst record in all of baseball. 

Baltimore is 3-4 over its last seven games. That’s after losing 19 in a row where all but one of the defeats came by multiple runs. We’ve got a real mismatch with the two starting pitchers today. Matt Harvey has lost four straight starts for the Orioles and has a 6.18 ERA for the year. Toronto’s Steven Matz has a 1.06 ERA and 0.882 WHIP his L3 starts, sadly two of which Toronto has lost. But Matz shouldn’t have any issues today facing a lineup that hits just .223 at home. Like his team, he’s certainly due for a big win on Wednesday. 

The Blue Jays have the run differential of a 78-win team. They should be leading the Wild Card race. Instead, they are only 69-62 with the ignominious distinction of being baseball’s biggest underachiever (in terms of actual vs. expected wins). But they still have eight games left vs. the Orioles (including tonight), which should give them an opportunity to make up ground in the WC hunt. They average 1.6 rpg more than Baltimore while also allowing 1.1 rpg less. Matz is due for a win and the Blue Jays should easily win this game. 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* Houston (4:10 ET): As I’ve said numerous times before, Seattle is a team totally undeserving of its record. They have been outscored by 57 runs this season, which makes their 71-62 record pretty hard to fathom. Based on their run differential, the Mariners would have an “expected” win total of 60, an 11-game difference from their actual win total. No other team in MLB has exceeded their expected win total by more than five games. The Mariners beat the Astros 4-0 last night, thanks to an eighth inning grand slam from Abraham Toro. Par for the course for a team that has 27 one-run wins and is 11-5 in games decided in extra innings. 

I didn’t fade the Mariners last night. But I did Monday when they lost 4-3 and got a taste of their own medicine. In that game, Houston rallied late for two runs in the eighth. This Astros team is the best in the American League in my eyes. They’ve got a +173 YTD run differential and have won five of their last seven games. They’ve got a history of bouncing back from shutout losses. Yesterday was just the fifth time it's happened in 2021. They are 3-1 off their previous four and 10-4 in this situation the L3 seasons. A 37-18 record vs. the rest of the division tells me a bounce back is quite likely this afternoon. 

Seattle has a losing record this year when off a shutout victory. Logan Gilbert, their starter for today, has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts. Over the last three, Gilbert has posted a 13.50 ERA and 2.131 WHIP. He was rocked by the Astros for nine runs in 4 ⅔ IP when he faced them on August 21st. That ended up being a 15-1 final. Jake Odorizzi started that game for Houston and will again oppose Gilbert today. Odorizzi is now looking for a third straight win after holding Texas to two runs in a 5-4 win last Friday. Houston is SO MUCH better than Seattle and this line is LOW. 10* Houston

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): The Twins played yesterday, in Detroit, and won 3-2. It was a make-up game and I thought it was a pretty favorable matchup for the road team, which is why I took them. As I predicted, Minnesota got a great outing from Bailey Ober. Now starting a new series right after a make-up game may seem like a difficult situation. But the Twins are back at home and set to play the moribund Cubs, who have lost 24 of their last 31 games. The last time we saw the Cubs, they lost 13-1 to the White Sox on Sunday. That was the eighth time this month - and third time in the last four games - that they allowed double digit runs. 

Now they are in an American League park where the pitching staff must deal with a DH. Of course, that was also the case over the weekend when they faced their cross-town rivals. In the two losses to the White Sox, Cubs pitching surrendered 30 runs. That’s just hideous. I expect tonight’s starter Zach Davies to struggle considering he has a 5.00 ERA and 1.485 WHIP this season. The team is 4-8 in Davies’ 12 road starts. They are also 4-16 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. 

While the Twins are a last place team, it’s important to note that they’ve been priced as a 71-win team (that’s how many games they’ve been favored in). The two-time defending AL Central Champs have definitely been one of the bigger disappointments in baseball this year, but that doesn’t mean they can’t finish strong. Over the last month, they’ve won series against Houston, the White Sox, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. All of those teams are current division leaders! Tuesday starter John Gant is familiar with the Cubs from his time in St. Louis. Look for him to earn his first ‘W’ in nearly three months. 8* Minnesota

9* Washington (7:05 ET): So my play on the Nationals +1.5 didn’t work out last night. They dug themselves too deep of an early hole. It was 3-0 after the top of the 1st. The Nats were able to climb back within a run after the 2nd, but another three-run from the Phillies (top of the 3rd) pretty much sealed the game. It was a poor effort from starter Josiah Gray, who saw a streak of three consecutive quality starts snapped. But Washington should get a better outing from Patrick Corbin tonight. I know that Corbin has struggled for much of 2021, but I think he and his team are due. The Nats have lost five straight home games to the Phillies. That can't continue. 

As I discussed in yesterday’s analysis, the Phillies aren’t exactly a good road team. They are below .500 for the year away from home (28-36). Yesterday, I took a chance in a game where they were heavily favored. It was their first win as a road favorite of -175 or higher in the last three seasons. Now there have only been five occasions in the L3 seasons where they’ve been favored by that much. But they were previously 0-2 in that role in 2021. Notable is that they aren’t getting that same kind of respect from the oddsmakers tonight. 

That probably has to do with Matt Moore being on the mound. The Phillies’ southpaw hasn’t been great this year. Somehow he does have a 5-0 TSR on the road despite not factoring into the decisions. He has a 4.37 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in those five road starts, so he’s certainly not deserving of his record. Moore also has an 8.00 ERA in three previous starts vs. Washington this season. The last time Moore pitched, the Phillies lost at home to Arizona. Like the Cardinals (another team I’m fading today), the Phillies have a negative YTD run differential despite a winning record. 9* Washington

8* Houston (10:10 ET): A quick glance at the AL West standings reveals that the Astros have a comfortable 7.5 game lead over the Mariners. But that lead should be so much greater. I say that based on the fact Houston has outscored its opponents by 176 runs this season, the second best differential in all of MLB. Meanwhile, Seattle has actually been outscored by 60 runs. Based on the respective run differentials of the teams, you’d expect Houston to have a 24.5 game lead! I think they work on rectifying this massive discrepancy with a win on Monday. 

Despite losing 13-2 at Texas yesterday, the Astros are well on their way to another playoff berth. I’ve got them rated as the second best team in baseball right now. They’d won four straight before yesterday’s debacle and are the highest scoring team in the league on the road at 5.5 runs per game. They should do damage here against Mariners’ starter Chris Flexen, who is 0-3 all-time vs. the Astros with a 9.64 ERA. Flexen allowed seven runs the last time he faced them. 

The last game between these teams took place on August 22nd and saw Seattle win 6-3 in extra innings. Typical win for the Mariners, who have lived off one-run and extra inning victories all season long. But prior to that win, Houston had scored eight or more runs in five consecutive games vs. Mariners pitching, including wins of 12-3 and 15-1 in the last series. Luis Garcia has a 4-0 TSR in his last four starts for the Astros while allowing just 5 runs in 22 ⅔ IP. The Astros are simply the better team here. 8* Houston

8* Run Line Washington (7:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Nationals +1.5. Back at the start of the month, the Phillies came here to the Nation’s Capital and took all four games from the Nats. At that time, the Phillies were the hottest team in all of baseball. They’d end up winning eight in a row and were briefly in first place in the NL East. But this team is not that good and has long since ceded control of the division to Atlanta. It was a successful weekend in Philly (took three of four from the lousy D’backs), but they are 0-2 this season as a road favorite of -175 or higher (0-4 L3 seasons). I look for the home team to do no worse than a one-run loss in this one. 

In that last series between Philadelphia & Washington, two of the four games were decided by one run. Another of the games saw the Nationals give up five runs in the ninth and lose by two. So it was a competitive series. I know this is a bit of a “lost season” for the Nats, but there is reason for optimism as three players acquired in the Max Scherzer trade will make their big league debuts today. Starter Josiah Gray also came over in that trade and he’s had a solid August which includes three straight quality starts. 

Zach Wheeler has struggled recently for the Phillies, posting a 6.53 ERA in his L3 starts. He’s lost all three as a favorite. His last road start came against lowly Arizona and he allowed six runs. Wheeler has given up four runs or more in six of his previous nine outings. The Nationals should certainly be familiar with him by this point as this will be their sixth time facing him in 2021. Wheeler’s ERA in the previous five starts is 4.11 and he’s just 7-14 all-time vs. Washington (4.53 ERA). The Phillies are only 27-36 on the road this year, so being able to get an extra 1.5 runs and fade them, at this price, is a good deal. 8* Run Line Washington

10* Minnesota (2:10 ET): These AL Central rivals got real familiar with each other in July. They played 10 times last month. Minnesota got things going with a four-game sweep at home, right before the All-Star Break. But then right after the Break, Detroit returned the favor by sweeping three games in the Motor City. The Tigers then took two of three in the Twin Cities, including a wild 17-14 win, the last time they played. Although they both lost on Sunday, the Tigers and Twins have put together winning records in August. This is a make-up game and I think the road team is likely to take it. 

Taking two of three from Milwaukee over the weekend was impressive for the Twins. I faded them yesterday, a good call, but that had to do with the fact I simply could not see them sweeping the Brew Crew. Beating the Tigers sounds a lot simpler, especially with Bailey Ober on the mound. Ober has been really solid of late, allowing only three runs (one of them unearned) in his last three starts. I know that it hasn’t translated into many wins, but Ober has definitely pitched better than his WL record indicates. The Tigers’ offense has scored just seven runs in its last four games. 

The Tigers played three low-scoring games with the Blue Jays over the weekend and lost two of them. Incredibly, the team’s last eight games have all stayed Under. In 8 of their last 12 games, the Tigers have not scored more than two runs. That puts incredible pressure on starter Casey Mize here. Mize did win his last time out, but has a 6.89 ERA in four career starts vs. Minnesota. He’s also allowed 22 home runs this season. The Twins are 9-3 off their previous 12 losses. It’s telling that they’ve been bet to the role of favorite here. 10* Minnesota

10* NY Giants (6:00 ET): We’ve yet to see the Giants’ starters in the preseason, but that will change Sunday against the Patriots. HC Joe Judge has said the first team will play a “minimum” of one half today. That includes QB Daniel Jones. The Giants have yet to win in this preseason, they’ve lost 12-7 to the Jets and 17-13 to the Browns. No team wants to go winless, even if it is “only” preseason. I’ll take the points. 

The big story in New England is the QB battle between rookie Mac Jones and incumbent Cam Newton. Newton was the Week 1 starter last year, but never seemed comfortable with his new team. It doesn’t help that Newton missed multiple days of practice this week, not for a violation of team rules, but over what has been called a COVID-19 protocol “misunderstanding.” Jones has yet to throw a TD pass. 

I know Newton and Jones will be “pushing” one another here and that the Patriots won 35-0 last week. But that was a fortuitous situation where Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts was a late scratch. The fact that the Giants are playing starters here tells me they are making this their “dress rehearsal” and will be a bit more motivated than usual. The Giants’ defense has been good in the first two games. They’ve beaten the Patriots “when it matters most” (two Super Bowls) and can beat them when it matters least. Take the points. 10* NY Giants

7* AS Roma (2:45 ET): Roma treated us kindly in matchweek one of the Serie A season. They ran past Fiorentina 3-1. The winning didn’t stop there for new manager Jose Mourinho, however. Roma then rolled in the Europa League Conference Playoff on Thursday. So after two wins in five days, the Giallorossi now hit the road to face recently promoted Salernitana. This is Salernitana’s first time back in Serie A in 22 seasons. Their return to the Italian top flight began with a 3-2 loss to Bologna. 

Roma was not on par with the top five in Serie A last season. But it was still a solid top seven finish. Europa League qualifying is obviously going well. I think Mourinho was a strong hire to guide the ship. As I mentioned in last week’s analysis, Mourinho has had success in this league before. His career 2.18 points per match ranks second best this century in Serie A. The next challenge is to reverse Roma’s seven match winless streak on the road, which includes five losses. Seeing as how the current streak is the longest of its kind for the club since 2000, it’s only a matter of time. Roma certainly has an ideal opponent Sunday to reverse the streak. 

Salernitana is going to struggle at this level. I expect them to be trying to stave off relegation. Last week’s 3-2 loss may not look that bad on the surface, but when you consider Salernitana completed 50% fewer passes than every other Serie A side last week, you can see why there’s reason for concern. They twice blew a lead against Bologna and they were fortunate to get a penalty. Even more damning is that by the end of the match Bologna had two players sent off. The key trend here is that Roma is unbeaten in its last 36 matches against newly promoted sides. 7* AS Roma

10* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): For the first time since the All-Star Break, the Brewers have lost three in a row. The last two losses have come here in Minnesota. The Twins are not a team that the Brew Crew should be losing to, as few teams have disappointed more in 2021. At the betting window, Minnesota is down 24.5 units. Only Arizona and Baltimore, the teams with the worst records in each league, have been bigger money-burners. The Twins are last in the AL Central and have not swept a series since before the Break. 

Milwaukee looks to avoid the sweep today behind Aaron Ashby. This will be just the fourth career start for Ashby and his first in more than two weeks. While his ERA and WHIP in the previous three are 5.40/1.799, the Brewers have managed to go a perfect 3-0 when he’s on the bump. The poor numbers are all because his first start saw him give up seven runs - three of them unearned - to the Cubs in two-thirds of an inning. That was back in June. Ashby hasn’t allowed any runs in two August starts, though admittedly those spanned only six innings. 

While Ashby may have struggled in his big league debut, he wasn’t as bad as Griffin Jax was his last time out for the Twins. Jax allowed three homers and nine runs in Boston on Tuesday. That raised his ERA to 5.75 in nine starts. Milwaukee has the best road record in all of baseball (42-23) and I just cannot see them getting swept this weekend. Their offense usually improves on the road (5.0 rpg) and here they get to use a DH. The Brewers’ 36-18 record in day games is also among MLB’s best. They’ve had only two losing streaks of longer than three games all year, a five-game skid in June and six-game skid in May. A good bet to bounce back Sunday. 10* Milwaukee

8* Boston (1:10 ET): The Red Sox look to make it a three-game sweep here in Cleveland. The first two games have been close, both of them decided by three-run homers from different Red Sox hitters. Jonathan Arauz was the hero in Friday’s 4-3 win, a game where Boston had only one hit through seven innings. Yesterday’s game went 10 innings and saw J.D. Martinez win the game. Boston can’t afford to let up; not with a slim 3.5 game advantage in the Wild Card race. These are the games Cleveland typically loses; they are 3-12 this season as home underdog of +125 to +175. 

The Indians are back below .500, which is not a surprise as they made their future intentions clear at the trade deadline. The inconsistent Eli Morgan will start Sunday’s game for them. Morgan has not fared well so far at Progressive Field where his ERA is 7.67 and WHIP is 1.61. He’s 1-5 here in seven starts. Last time out, Morgan only made it through 4 ⅓ innings and he gave up four runs. That was against a terrible Texas team that is last in the AL in runs scored. Boston is 4th overall in MLB in runs scored. 

Tanner Houck may still have yet to record a win for the Red Sox, but he seems to have solidified his spot in the starting rotation. He has a very impressive 47-7 KW ratio as he’s struck out six or more hitters in five of his last six starts. 8* Boston

10* Under Gillmore/Petroski (10:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). Both Micheal Gillmore and Andre Petroski are making their UFC debuts here. Gillmore brings in a 5-3 career mark while Petroski is 5-1. The latter is a massive favorite here and likely to end this one rather quickly. But rather than take a chance with those massive odds, I’ll bet the Under as we’re then covered in case Petroski were to get caught with a big shot. All we need is this fight to be over by the halfway point of the second round. 

All five of Petroski’s wins have come via stoppage, three of which were in the first round. But he is off a loss in October to Aaron Jeffery where he was stopped in the second round. Then came a stint on “The Ultimate Fighter” show. Fights from that show don’t count in the overall record, but it’s worth mentioning neither went past round two for Petroski. He submitted Aaron Phillips, but then was eliminated himself via submission at the hands of Bryan Battle. Based on Petroski’s resume, there’s just no reason to expect this fight to last very long. 

Gillmore was a castmate of Petroski on “The Ultimate Fighter.” He was actually an alternate for the show and his stay was a short one. He lost his first fight, getting stopped by Gilbert Urbina. Prior to that, there were lots of stoppages on Gillmore’s career resume, win or lose. Every loss in his career has come by submission. Four of his official eight fights have ended in the first round. I just can’t see this fight lasting long with Petroski very likely to assert control early and get the finish. 10* Under Gillmore/Petroski

8* Over Stewart/Jacoby (8:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Division (205 lbs). We’ve got Darren Stewart, who is 12-7 overall but has a losing record (5-6) in the UFC. Dustin Jacoby is 14-5-1 overall in his career with a 2-2-1 record in the UFC. My viewpoint is that this fight is very likely to go to the scorecards, so I’ll bet the Over 2.5 rounds. We just need this one to make it to the halfway point of round three to cash. 

Jacoby is actually in his second stint with the UFC. The first didn’t go well as he lost both fights and was then let go. That was all the way back in 2012. He definitely seems like a better fighter now as he’s unbeaten in his last five fights, the last of which was a draw against Ion Cutelaba in May. Three of the previous four, all victories, went to the scorecards. Being the larger of the two fighters here, Jacoby may very well “scare off” a usually aggressive Stewart and that likely leads to a pretty methodical and quite frankly boring fight. 

Stewart hasn’t done much winning of late as he’s gotten his hand raised just once in his last five fights. That includes a no contest against Eryk Anders in March due to Anders landing an illegal knee. Stewart lost the rematch with Anders in June, but that was by decision. Even in the midst of a rough stretch, Stewart has proven difficult to beat. He hasn’t been stopped since 2017 and six of his last eight fights have gone to the scorecards. 8* Over Stewart/Jacoby

10* Miami (6:10 ET): The Marlins have not beaten the Reds this season. They are 0-5 against them, losing 6-0 last night and were swept in Cincinnati last week. They are 1-11 head to head with the Reds since the start of the 2019 season. So it’s not been a favorable matchup for the Fish. But with Sandy Alcantara on the bump Saturday, I think they’re about to turn the tide. While Alacantara’s won-loss record won’t scare anybody, he has a 2.43 ERA and 0.927 WHIP at home. He’s pitched much better than his record this year.

Cincinnati is trying to hold on to the second Wild Card in the National League. They’ve won six of eight, five of those victories coming against the Marlins obviously. I’m not convinced that the Reds are going to be able to finish in front of the Padres, the team they are competing with for that second Wild Card. I say that because of a pitching staff that has given up the fifth most runs in the Senior Circuit. It will be Vladimir Gutierrez starting on Saturday. He’s been good, but he’s a rookie and it’s getting late in the year. Innings have been piling up. 

Gutierrez and Alcantara opposed each other last Sunday and we obviously know who got the better of it. But Alcantara pitched well, save for the two solo homers he gave up. Those were his only runs allowed over seven innings and he gave up just two other hits. He also had a season-high 11 strikeouts.Over his L3 starts, Alcantara has a 1.23 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. He really deserves a win this evening as does a Miami team that’s played better than its record in 2021. They are due to beat the Reds. 10* Miami

8* Under Royals/Mariners (4:10 ET): Kansas City has hit a grand slam in three consecutive games. It’s only the fifth time since 1895 that a team has done that and last year’s Padres are the only team in MLB history to do it four straight games. As small as the odds were that the Royals would do it again yesterday, they are even smaller now. The last two grand slams have come from catcher Salvador Perez and under normal circumstances he might not even play today (day game after a night game). He’ll likely lobby to get in the lineup, but don’t expect another grand slam. I’m taking the Under today.

If you’ve been following my analysis this season, then you know it pleased me some to see the Mariners lose by one run in extra innings last night. This is a team that’s grossly overachieved this season. They are 69-60, but have a -59 run differential. A team with that run differential you’d expect to have a 58-71 record.The key has been a 26-15 record in one-run games and an 11-5 record in extra innings. But they got a “taste of their own medicine” last night with an 8-7 defeat in a game that went 12 innings. 

It was supposed to be Carlos Hernandez starting for the Royals on Saturday, but he was called upon last night when Kris Bubic couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning. Hernandez did an excellent job keeping his team in the game, retiring 14 batters in a row. Seattle hits just .210 at home and has the worst overall team batting average in baseball. They are also bottom five in OBP, slugging and OPS. Daniel Lynch will now get the starting call for KC, keeping this a battle of lefties. He’s allowed just two runs in his last 12 IP. He’ll be opposed by Tyler Anderson, who has allowed 3 ER or less in nine consecutive starts. Despite all the grand slams, the Royals still only average 3.7 rpg on the road this season. 8* Under Royals/Mariners

10* UCLA (3:30 ET): It is clearly a make or break year for Chip Kelly at UCLA. He’s gone 10-21 SU in his first three years here (3-9, 4-8 and 3-4). Typically it’s year three when a coach truly puts his imprint on a program. But 2020 clearly was a season like none other before it. It was also a season in which the Bruins’ four losses came by a total of 15 points. Somehow they were 0-4 SU in games where they scored 35 or more points. That should never happen. But the good news is that - with most of last year’s starters returning and factors pointing up - this should be the season Kelly’s team is a contender in the Pac 12 South.

Hawaii looks to be pretty bad in 2021. They were 5-4 SU in 2020, but outscored. That’s the opposite of UCLA, who had a positive point differential last season despite the losing overall record. The Warriors’ season ended with a New Mexico Bowl victory over Houston. But that was one of only four times they had to leave the Island last year. Two of the four were losses by 24 points. Not only does QB Chevan Cordeiro lose three of his top receivers from last year, but HC Todd Graham had to replace two offensive coaches including the coordinator. 

UCLA has 10 starters back on defense including the top three tacklers. So look for that unit to be improved this season. The offense did improve last year, scoring 34+ points in five of seven games and committing three-and-outs at the 18th lowest rate in the country. Like the defense, most of LY’s starters are back. This is a very early start time for the Hawaii players and the last time the Warriors visited the Rose Bowl, the end result was a 33-point defeat. The Hawaii run defense was a major problem LY, giving up 212 YPG. 10* UCLA

10* Real Sociedad (1:30 ET): Real Sociedad figures to be a player in La Liga this season. I figure they are still being undervalued though, thanks to an opening match loss to Barca two weeks ago. There was absolutely no shame in that though and Sociedad quickly bounced back with a clean sheet against recently promoted Rayo Vallecano, 1-0 last week. Let us not forget they finished fifth in the table last season and also won the delayed Copa del Rey Final over Athletic Bilbao. I like them big here.

Levante has drawn each of its first two matches and in both instances they were probably disappointed to share the points. They didn’t concede until the 7th minute of stoppage time against Cadiz and they were actually ahead of Real Madrid at the hour mark last week. That they could only manage two points there will likely haunt them as they look to improve upon last season’s 14th place finish. They went back up 3-2 on Real Madrid in the 79th minute last week only to give up the equalizer in the 85th minute. 

Facing a second straight top five opponent from last season might be a little “too much” for Levante. I know that La Real has taken just one of the last five head to head meetings, the most recent, which was a 1-0 win last March. But they are definitely the better side here. Levante hasn’t won in La Liga since April, which is quite the drought. There have been plenty of draws, but eventually that comes back to bite you. They were actually dominated in terms of possession last week by Real Madrid. 10* Real Sociedad

7* West Ham United (10:00 AM ET): Through two weeks, there are five Premier League sides that have taken full points. One of them is West Ham, who have impressed as much as anybody with eight goals already scored. It was 4-2 over Newcastle United and then 4-1 over Leicester City. The latter was a surprise, but I didn’t care who won as long as the match went Over. (It clearly did). Now the Hammers look to stay perfect with a visit from Crystal Palace, who should be a bottom of the table team. 

I expect Crystal Palace to have to fend off relegation all season. They did finish 14th in 2020/21, but they were also third worst in expected points. They’ve yet to score through two weeks, losing 3-0 to Chelsea and then playing a scoreless draw against Brentford last time out. Given how prolific at goal scoring West Ham has been thus far, this looks to be a very difficult matchup for the visitors. The Eagles also failed to score in a loss to Watford midweek in EFL Cup action. So they are really struggling to find the back of the net right now. 

Given that CP has not exactly been an in-form side the last couple seasons, it’s surprising that West Ham has failed to win four of the last five EPL meetings. They actually haven’t defeated the Eagles on home soil since 2018. To me, they are due. Recall that West Ham were sixth place finishers in the table last season. It might be a short week, but they are simply the better side here. Expect them to nab the full three points. 7* West Ham United

8* Mainz (9:30 AM ET): For only the second time in club history, Greuther Furth is in the German top flight. Their only prior experience in the Bundesliga was a brief one as they were “one and done” in 2013. Certainly, if current form holds, then this stay will be brief as well. It started with an ominous preseason where they failed to win a single friendly. They’ve already been ousted from the DFB-Pokal, losing to amateur side SV Babelsberg. The first two weeks of the Bundesliga campaign have been just as unkind. After losing the opener 5-1 to Stuttgart, Greuther Fruth could only manage a 1-1 draw against Arminia Bielefeld, who was down to 10 men by the end of the match. 

Mainz also figures to finish in the bottom half of the table this year. However, you wouldn’t have known that by their Week 1 upset of RB Leipzig. That result made last week’s 2-0 loss to VfL Bochum all the more frustrating. Bochum, like Greuther Furth, is a recently promoted side. Mainz certainly doesn’t want to drop points two weeks ago to opponents of this caliber. 

Under the direction of manager Bo Svensson, Mainz has improved. Since January, the side has gone 10-6-6 over 22 Bundesliga fixtures. A strong finish last year had them 12th in the table after fighting off relegation much of the way. You’ve got to remember how they’d taken just seven total points from the first 17 matches. Svensson will be welcoming more players back from COVID this week and that gives his club an even greater edge over an opponent that did not fare well in the transfer window and is very likely to finish last in the league. 8* Mainz

8* Bayer Leverkusen (9:30 AM ET): Augsburg is not only winless through two matches, they are still goalless as well. At least last week’s 0-0 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt represents “improvement” after a 4-0 schellacking at the hands of Hoffenheim on matchday one. The bottom of the Bundesliga table may be a crowded place in 2021/22. Expect Augsburg, who finished 13th last season, to be down there. In terms of expected points last year, Augsburg was 15th, or right above the relegation playoff. I expect their struggles to continue this week. 

Bayer Leverkusen is off to an unbeaten start and has the best goal differential in the Bundesliga entering Saturday. That’s all owed to a 4-0 win over Gladbach last week. The first week saw last year’s sixth place finishers end in a 1-1 draw with Union Berlin. It’s very much “Champions League or bust” for Leverkusen this season. The race for the fourth spot should be wide open and they have as good a chance as any. 

Leverkusen has owned this particular fixture, winning five of the last six. Augsburg has failed to win any of the last 20. It was very much a fortunate 0-0 draw last week for Augsburg as they really were dominated in terms of possession and shots on goal. You have to figure Augsburg will score a goal here, but that won’t be enough to share points this time. Look for the favorites to take the full three. 8* Bayer Leverkusen

10* Run Line Philadelphia (7:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m taking the Phillies -1.5. I was going to play the Phillies yesterday, but a late pitching change - Matt Moore starting in place of Zach Eflin - scratched that. Moore struggled mightily, giving up four runs on seven hits in his four innings of work. It was 8-2 in favor of the D’backs going into the bottom of the ninth when Philly made a game of it by scoring five times. But they were still a run short and are now an embarrassing 0-4 this season against Arizona, who just won B2B road games for the first time since April. 

The Phillies have a much more suitable starter set for tonight. That would be Aaron Nola, whose 11-14 YTD TSR is just not indicative of the way he’s pitched in 2021. Last time out, Nola took a perfect game into the seventh inning but ended up getting a no-decision as the Phillies lost to the Padres 4-3 in extra innings. Nola went 8 ⅔ and struck out 11 batters. It was the 11th time this season that Nola allowed 2 ER or less. I simply cannot see the Phillies losing again to the D’backs and if anyone on this staff deserves a win, it’s Nola. 

Arizona might be 4-0 vs. the Phillies this year, but they are still 41 games below .500. As I said earlier, this is the first time they’ve been off B2B road wins since April. They are 17-49 on the road, including 4-23 as an underdog of +175 to +250. So it’s not a question IF they lose, it’s if they lose by multiple runs. I think they will. For the year, they’ve been outscored by an average of nearly two full runs per game away from home. Taylor Widener, despite some success, has seen his velocity decrease over his last couple starts. I think the Phils will get to him on Friday. They may be banged up, but the home team should still exact revenge. 10* Run Line Philadelphia

8* Toronto (7:10 ET): My view on Toronto has been well-documented throughout this season. I feel they are the most underachieving team in all of baseball. Despite a run differential of +113 (7th best overall), the Blue Jays are only six games over .500 and on the periphery of the Wild Card race. This is a team with an expected won-loss record of 75-51. Oddsmakers consider them a top six team in baseball and so do I. But after a disappointing 5-10 stretch, the Jays simply MUST get it going this weekend. 

Toronto is coming off a four-game split with the White Sox, not what they needed but far from an embarrassing result. However, dropping two of three at home last weekend to Detroit was downright unacceptable. The Jays now get a chance at revenge when they pay a visit to the Motor City for the next three games, starting tonight. Steven Matz will get the start and he’s pitched well of late (1.25 ERA in August) despite an unimpressive record. Against the Tigers last weekend, Matz gave up just one run on five hits. But Toronto ended up losing 5-3, emblematic of the kind of season they are having. Matz certainly deserves better than a 3-4 TSR over his L7 starts considering he’s allowed 2 ER or less six times in that stretch. 

I expect Matz to pitch well again here as the Tigers have been struggling to score of late. Over the last nine games, Detroit has scored two runs or less five times. That includes a 3-2 extra innings loss in St. Louis on Wednesday. Rookie Matt Manning, working on extended rest, will be the starter for the home team today. He was plagued by control issues last Thursday, a game where the Tigers blew a huge lead and lost 13-10. The Blue Jays are 26-13 vs. sub-.500 teams this year, so this is a matchup they really should dominate. It’s now or never and I’m not ready to give up on this team just yet. 8* Toronto

10* Detroit (7:00 ET): The Lions are 0-2 in the preseason with losses to Pittsburgh (26-20) and Buffalo (16-15). Head coach Dan Campbell is not expected to have a strong first year on the job as the Lions’ projected regular season win total of 4.5 is the second lowest in the league (only Houston is lower). So I expect him to “play to win” Friday in an effort to create SOME kind of spark for when the games start to matter. Almost all of the Lions scoring during the preseason has come in the fourth quarter, so Campbell has shown he’s not one to “roll over.: I look for a better start tonight at home and will take the points. 

Indianapolis has won both of its preseason games. But those two wins have been by a total of five points and both required fourth quarter comebacks. They were down 15-3 to the Panthers in the opener, but a late TD + 2pt conversion followed by a FG in the closing seconds gave them a 21-18 win. Last week, the Colts failed to get in the end zone but won 12-10 in Minnesota after another late FG in the fourth quarter. Carson Wentz (injured) is obviously not playing, which leaves the QB duties to Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger, two former college standouts that aren’t expected to do much in the pros. The Colts haven’t run the ball in either game (3.0 YPC). 

David Blough and Tim Boyle are the QBs for Detroit. I realize that’s a very unassuming sounding duo, but they’ve done well so far when facing backups and that’s likely what they’ll see here. The Lions defense was under siege against a motivated group of Pittsburgh QBs last week. It won’t be like that again in the final preseason game. I believe Campbell is really going to want to win for the first time as Lions head coach. The home dog is a strong value. 10* Detroit

8* Inter Milan (2:45 ET): Last season saw Internazionale end Juventus’ nine-year run atop Serie A. Even more impressive was how they did it. They had the Scudetto wrapped up by the first weekend of May and finished 12 points clear of everyone else. It marked the first time that Inter finished first since 2009/10. Unfortunately, then came the offseason. The core of the title team was torn apart, really angering the fanbase. However, reports of the club’s demise appear to be greatly exaggerated. The new season opened with a 4-0 thrashing of Genoa at home and I like them to win big again here. 

Hellas Verona was the definition of a middle of the table team last season as they had a 10th place finish. But in actuality they were a lot closer to the bottom than they were to the top. Finishing 12 points clear of the drop zone, they were never in danger of being relegated. However, there was a massive 17-point gap between them and the Europa League qualifiers. Unlike Inter, this season got off to a poor start for Verona as they fell 3-2 last week to Sassuolo. That loss extended their winless run at home to nine consecutive matches. It’s the longest drought at home w/o a Serie A win since 2016. 

Despite the exodus of talent that occurred over the summer, I still expect Inter to contend for a top four finish. You have to remember that they lost only three matches all of last season. This calendar year has seen them win 19 of 25 matches, which is the highest win rate by any side in any of Europe’s top five leagues besides Manchester City in the Premier League. They’ve also dominated Hellas Verona through the years, never losing in the last 20 meetings (16 wins, 4 draws). Inter had the joint-best defensive record away from home last season, conceding only 0.89 goals per match. Look for them to hand Verona it’s first 0-2 start this century. 8* Inter Milan

8* Under Royals/Mariners (10:10 ET): This will be the first time in over two years that these teams have faced off. That’s really odd considering they both hail from the American League, but last year’s schedule was dramatically altered because of the pandemic. They met eight times in 2019 and none of the games saw fewer than nine runs scored. But a lot can change in 2+ years. Neither of the teams are very strong offensively in 2021. I’m taking the Under in this battle of unfamiliar opponents.

My thoughts on Seattle are well known. How they are still in Wild Card contention is a minor miracle. This is a team that’s been outscored by 56 runs this season, but is somehow 11 games above .500. They’ve gone 26-14 in one-run games and 11-4 in extra innings. Very fortunate. It’s also amazing that they can win with an offense that is so unproductive. Coming into this series, the Mariners are dead last in team batting average, 29th in OBP, 25th in slugging and 27th in OPS. They are hitting .209 for the year at home. Kansas City’s Brad Keller, who is off a quality start his last time out, should pitch well here.

But so should Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi. He didn’t pitch well his last time out, but he was facing Houston, the highest scoring team in the big leagues. Kikuchi has generally pitched very well this season. That last trip to the mound was only the third time since April that he permitted more than 3 ER in a start. Kansas City, like Seattle, is bad offensively. They average only 3.7 rpg on the road. After being shut out on Tuesday, they scored five times yesterday. But four of those five runs came from a grand slam. 8* Under Royals/Mariners

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): It’s all about revenge here for the Phillies, who suffered an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the D’backs just last week. I can remember when the Phils were the hottest team in all of baseball. It wasn’t that long ago! They started August on an 8-0 run and were (temporarily) in first place in the NL East. Since then, they’ve lost 10 of 14 and are now five games back of the Braves. Can’t say that I’m all that high on the Phils, but hosting an Arizona team that is a horrendous 16-49 on the road should make for an easy win. 

The D’backs are off a win as they beat Pittsburgh 5-2 yesterday. At 8-5 their last 13 games, this is actually one of the better stretches of the season. But that’s pretty sad when you think about it and there’s no running from the fact this team is 42 games below .500. Remember when I faded them on Monday? It’s the same situation here. On Monday, they were coming off a win in Colorado. In each of the last two series, the D’backs lost the first two games. They are just 9-20 their L29 series openers. They also have not won B2B road games since April. 

Philly was just swept at home in a brief two-game series with Tampa Bay. But the Rays are one of the best teams in baseball. It’s an immense drop in class with who they are facing this weekend. Zach Eflin is making his first start in over a month here. I’m not concerned as he has 11 quality starts to his name this season and pitches a lot better at home than he does on the road. Meanwhile, Arizona’s Zac Gallen has won just once in 16 starts this year. The team is 3-13 when he’s on the mound. You have to fade the D’backs on the road at this price. 10* Philadelphia

8* Over Angels/Orioles (1:05 ET): At long last, Baltimore’s losing streak is over. They snapped a 19-game skid yesterday by beating the Angels 10-6. The win also snapped a four-game losing streak to the Angels this season. Now Thursday’s starter Keegan Akin will try and stop his own personal losing skid. Akin is still winless on the season and the team is 0-9 in his last nine starts. I can’t bet on him. Nor can I bet on the Angels’ Jaime Barria, who also has ugly looking numbers. Almost all of the Angels-Orioles matchups this year have turned into slugfests and this one should be no different. Take the Over. 

There were 16 total runs scored in yesterday’s and 22 scored in Tuesday’s game. The Angels won that one 14-8. Twenty runs in two games is pretty impressive and Los Angeles should continue to hit the cover off the ball today against Akin, who has an 8.87 ERA and 2.014 WHIP. The last time Akin faced the Angels, he gave up four runs in three innings. That game, an 8-7 loss for Baltimore, easily went Over the total. Akin almost never makes it past the fifth inning and (as I’m sure you could have guessed) the O’s bullpen (5.30 ERA) is pretty horrific. 

Barria’s numbers over his last three starts are nearly identical to Akin’s. He has a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP during that time. Last time out, he was tagged for five runs in two innings by a Cleveland team that is offensively challenged. While both these teams have had their fair share of struggles at the plate in August, it’s clear that the hitters are ahead of the pitchers in this series. The Over is 37-15 the last 52 times the Angels have been favored. Baltimore is 28-12-1 Over its last 41 home games. 8* Over Angels/Orioles

7* Cleveland (7:05 ET): Nathaniel Lowe had himself quite a game last night for the Rangers. He was 5 for 5 at the plate. It was his three-run homer in the first inning that really put Cleveland “behind the 8-ball” and it wound up being a relatively easy Rangers’ win, something you don’t see too often, especially on the road. It has been well over a month since Texas, now 16-47 away from home this season, has won a road series. They have a ton of players on the COVID-19 list right now, including the two pitchers who were supposed to start today and tomorrow. This is a game the Indians have to win. 

It will be Jake Latz replacing Spencer Howard in the Texas rotation tonight. Latz, who pitched at nearby Kent State University, is making his first career start in the big leagues. It is not as if he was particularly dominant “down on the farm” as he had a 4.69 ERA at Double-A Frisco and a 7.00 ERA at Triple-A Round Rock. The Indians’ offense didn’t manage much last night, but had previously scored 17 runs during a three-game win streak. They are 16-7 this season as home favorites of -125 to -175. 

So I expect the home team to swing the bats well tonight. Zach Plesac will be the starting pitcher tonight for Cleveland. He’s been inconsistent this year, but does have a 0.69 ERA in two previous starts vs. a Texas team that hits just .219 on the road (3.7 rpg). I was really shocked to see the Indians lose on Tuesday considering they had Monday off while the Rangers were in Boston. I find it very hard to believe they’d lose two in a row to the last place Rangers, who have won multiple games in a row just once since the start of July. 7* Cleveland

10* Under Royals/Astros (2:10 ET): Houston has had its fair share of difficulty beating Kansas City. The teams have met six times this month and it’s the Royals with the surprising 4-2 head to head advantage. But last night was a 4-0 shutout for the Astros, thanks to a superb outing from Luis Garcia. The Royals’ offense had been surging in recent days, but could only manage four hits against Garcia and four Astros’ relievers. I’m not shocked that it happened. For the season, KC is averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road. So they were “due” to come back down to Earth. Look for the offensive regression to continue here.

Houston has the highest runs per game average in baseball (5.4) but they have scored just eight times in the previous three games. Three of their four runs last night came in the first inning. Kansas City pitching has been pretty good of late. Only once in the last eight games have they allowed more than four runs. Mike Minor is set to start Wednesday afternoon and he allowed just three runs in 5 ⅔ IP when he faced the Astros last Thursday. The Under is 5-0-1 in Minor’s last six starts. 

Houston holds teams to 3.9 rpg and a .218 batting average here at home. Those numbers are obviously very good. Lance McCullers gets the starting nod today. He now has 10 wins on the year and has gone 7-3 over his L11 starts. He did not face the Royals in last week’s series. But he did hold Seattle to only two runs in his most recent start. There have been only four times all year where McCullers has allowed more than 3 ER. Assuming Houston is up, they won’t have to bat in the bottom of the ninth. 10* Under Royals/Astros

8* St. Louis (1:15 ET): I was shocked and appalled at what happened to the Cardinals last night. They lost 4-3 to the Tigers, thanks to Miguel Cabrera and Robbie Grossman’s back to back homers in the top of the third. By that point, the game was 4-0 and practically out of reach for the Cards. They did make a game of it with a three-run rally in the eighth. But in the end they were a run short. Today they’ll have to contend with a hot pitcher, but I just can’t see them dropping to 0-4 vs. the lowly Tigers this season. 

Starting pitcher Jack Flaherty having to leave Tuesday’s game with shoulder tightness was a major blow. Flaherty clearly “didn’t have it” from the start. He recorded only six outs and was removed after allowing the B2B home runs. Today’s starter will be Jon Lester. One of the more durable pitchers in the game, Lester took a line drive off his calf in his last start but still continued. He was not as effective as he’d been in his previous start, but the team still won, 8-4 over Milwaukee as +175 underdogs. That previous start had seen Lester go 5 ⅔ innings and give up just one run in what was a 7-4 win at Kansas City. 

Tarik Skubal has been excellent over his L3 starts for Detroit. He’s posted a 1.02 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 17-2 KW rate in 17 ⅔ innings. But his season-long numbers should give you some pause. Skubal’s ERA on the road is 5.11. His lone road win over the last two months came at Baltimore, the worst team in baseball. Despite losing five of their last seven, St. Louis still has a +13 run differential and .261 batting average over the L10 games. Over its L10 games, Detroit has been outscored by 20 runs and is hitting just .219. 8* St. Louis

8* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): The Brewers have to like where they’re at right now. They have a 7.5 game lead in the division. Corbin Burnes will start Tuesday’s opener with Cincinnati, who is in second place. This series is a chance for Milwaukee to basically end the race for the NL Central pennant. I don’t know how you could go against Burnes right now, given that he’s 6-0 with a 2.01 ERA in his last 13 starts. He is second in the National League in ERA (2.13) this season. Really, it’s a crime that his team start record is “only” 13-8. Over his L3 starts, Burnes has allowed just one run in 21 innings. I know who I’m putting my money on here. 

Now there has been a strange trend in these Cincinnati-Milwaukee games. The road team has won 13 of 16 this year, including six straight. The Brewers swept a three-game series in Cincy right after the All-Star Break. That was after the Reds took all three games at American Family Field in the last series before the Break. I know the Brew Crew have a much better record on the road than here at home. But they are just a better ballclub compared to Cincinnati. 

Coming off a four-game sweep of Miami (at home), the Reds will start Tyler Mahle in this spot. Mahle is having a good 2021, but just gave up five runs in his last start and lost as a monster favorite (-315!) to the Cubs. Milwaukee’s offense has improved since Christian Yelich returned to the lineup. He’s hitting .356 the L11 games. But it all comes back to Burnes. In addition to not allowing any runs in his last two starts, he blanked the Reds for 8 ⅓ innings back on 7/18, a game where he had 12 strikeouts. The team has won his L6 starts. 8* Milwaukee

8* St. Louis (7:45 ET): The Cardinals actually lost two games in Detroit back in June. Despite the current homestand getting off to a less than desirable start, getting the Tigers at Busch Stadium is clearly a more favorable matchup. The AL team won’t have the services of a DH in its lineup, which tends to be a disadvantage. It’s not like the Tigers do much scoring with a DH in the lineup anyway. Over the last seven games, they are averaging 3.1 runs per game while hitting a collective .213. They’ll face Jack Flaherty tonight and he has very good numbers on the year. Should be a blowout for the home team here. 

It wasn’t that long ago that St. Louis won six straight road games, sweeping both the Pirates and Royals. Now neither of those teams are very good, but the same can be said for the Tigers. I know the Cards just dropped two of three at home to the Pirates over the weekend and before that they’d lost two of three here to Milwaukee. But the Tigers are just 19-46 as road underdogs of +175 to +250 over the L3 seasons. 

The Cardinals are only 4.5 games back of the Wild Card, so they still have a chance. But they’ve got to get their scuffling offense going. After producing only nine runs in the last series, things should turn around here against Casey Mize, who has a 6.08 ERA in three starts this month. Two of those three starts saw Mize surrender three home runs. The Cardinals are 10-3 this season when Flaherty goes and he’s got a 1.74 ERA and 0.742 WHIP at home. Since returning from injury, the only two runs that Flaherty has allowed came on solo home runs. 8* St. Louis

8* Atlanta (7:20 ET): These were two of the hottest teams in baseball going into yesterday’s series opener. Obviously, only one win streak could survive and it turned out to be the Yankees’, who have now won 10 in a row to move into Wild Card position in the American League. But the Braves are still fine, thank you very much. They lead the NL East by 4.5 games and I’m on the record as saying they WILL win this division. My confidence in that projection comes from the fact they have a +88 YTD run differential while the other four teams in the division all have negative run differentials. 

I look for the Braves to strike back tonight and end the Yankees’ win streak. Remember that Atlanta had also won nine in a row going into yesterday’s game. The entirety of that win streak came on the road. They lost 5-1 yday due to the Yankees getting a better outing from their starter and bullpen. I don’t think that will be the case again tonight as veteran Charlie Morton is set to toe the rubber for the home team. Morton is 12-4 this season and has gone 6+ innings in seven of his last eight starts. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of the eight. 

The Yankees haven’t exactly had the most productive year at the plate. They only average 4.1 rpg on the road and are minus the DH for this series. So that puts a lot of pressure on Andrew Heaney, making his fifth start for the team since coming over from the Angels. Heaney has a 6.55 ERA for the Yanks and really hasn’t impressed me, save for his last outing. Atlanta averages 5.1 rpg at home. Look for them to snap the Yankees’ win streak tonight. 8* Atlanta

10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians are fresh off a sweep of the Angels this past weekend. The pitching staff allowed only two runs in that three-game series. After having Monday off, the Tribe will welcome in a Texas team that has spent all year in the basement of the AL West. Whereas Cleveland had Monday off, the Rangers had to play a make-up date in Boston. Even worse for them is that the game went 11 innings and they ended up losing 8-4 on a grand slam. A bad team off a gut-wrenching loss, playing on the road against a rested opponent, has all the makings of a one-sided ballgame. Go with the Indians here. 

The three-game sweep of the Angels has Cleveland back at .500 for the year (61-61). It’s highly unlikely that they are going to make the playoffs, But they definitely have a chance to pick up some more wins in this series. Texas is a horrible 15-46 on the road this year (54-118 L3 seasons!) and in the bottom two in batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS. They’ve been held to 1 or 0 runs in five of the last 11 games. So we should see Cleveland’s pitching, which was so dominant against the Angels, continue to succeed here. 

It will be Eli Morgan getting the starting nod on Tuesday. The rookie is coming off an excellent start where he gave up only three hits over six shutout innings. Cleveland’s offense has begun to turn things around a bit by averaging 6.0 runs over the L7 games. That’s bad news for Rangers’ starter Taylor Hearn, who is still winless after four starts and not someone you should expect to pitch deep into the game. Texas has lost 14 of 18 overall and 18 of 20 on the road. If the scheduling disadvantage wasn’t bad enough, they also just had to place four players on the COVID-19 list. 10* Cleveland

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): It became clear at the trade deadline that the Cubs were waving the proverbial “white flag” on 2021. Even so, their record of late has been downright inexcusable. They have lost 17 of 20 games in August and are on a franchise-record 13-game losing streak at home. The weekend saw them get swept here at the Friendly Confines by the Royals and yesterday’s 9-1 defeat may represent a new nadir. But with their best pitcher on the mound Monday, I am going to call for a win! 

Colorado is 43-22 at home this season, but just 14-45 on the road. That’s the fewest number of road wins in all of baseball. The dramatic home vs. road splits have defined this franchise throughout its existence, but clearly 2021 has taken things to the extreme. The Rockies average just 3.0 runs per game away from home, compared to 5.9 at Coors Field. That’s just incredible. Sadly, their pitching gets even worse on the road where they give up 5.0 rpg. At home, they allow just 4.7 rpg. The Rockies did lose Sunday, 8-4 at home to the D’backs. 

Today’s pitching matchup obviously favors the Cubs. Kyle Hendricks actually leads all of MLB with 14 wins, which is remarkable considering the team he is pitching for. The Cubs won Hendricks’ last start 2-1 (at Cincinnati) as the righty gave up just one run and three hits over six innings. Antonio Senzatela has an 0-8 TSR on the road this year for Colorado, so no one has felt the brunt of the team’s road woes more than him. There’s really nothing “hard luck” about the TSR either, In the eight starts, Senzatela has a 5.80 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. 8* Chi Cubs

10* New Orleans (8:00 ET): The Urban Meyer era didn’t exactly get off to a great start for Jacksonville as they lost the first preseason game 23-13 at home to Cleveland. They’d been bet from underdogs to the role of favorite, so a lot of bettors (myself included) took a bath on that one. We did see the pro debut of #1 overall DC Trevor Lawrence and things didn’t go all that well for the heavily touted rookie. He was sacked twice and fumbled. It seems as if we’re likely to see more of backup Gardner Minshew III tonight (Lawrence will also play), but I don’t like the Jaguars chances here.

The Saints have some work to do after a sloppy first preseason game. They turned it over six times in a 17-14 loss at Baltimore. The Ravens have an incredible preseason record under John Harbaugh, but you have to figure the Saints would have beaten them if not for all those TO’s. Sean Payton is still trying to figure out who will be the heir apparent to Drew Brees (retired), Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. It looks like Winston will get the start tonight, but even with backups I’m confident Hill can get the job done.

The Saints outgained the Ravens last week 366-309. Behind Winston and Hill is Ian Book and the rookie out of Notre Dame did really well in “mop up” duty the first game. He completed 9 of 16 passes for 196 yards. Jacksonville’s defense is still a work in progress as is the whole team, coming off a 1-15 campaign. At home on Monday night, look for the Saints to get the job done. 10* New Orleans

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): These are the two worst teams in the National League. The Pirates have the slightly better overall record, but when you’re 44-80 on the season and have gone just 4-16 in August, there’s no reason to celebrate. That said, the Bucs did just take two of three from St. Louis over the weekend. If ever there was a matchup where they should be favored, it would be this one against an Arizona team that is a MLB worst 15-47 on the road and using a spot starter. 

The Diamondbacks are 7-3 their L10 games, making this one of their best stretches of the season. But as mentioned above, the road has been incredibly unkind to them in 2021. Over the weekend, they lost two of three games in Colorado. They did win Sunday, 8-4, thus avoiding a sweep. But I can’t see them winning here with spot starter Humberto Mejia, who will be making his season debut. Mejia just got called up from Triple-A Reno. His previous three big league starts all came with Miami last year and he did not win any of them (5.40). Even down on the farm he had a 5.93 in 12 outings. 

The Pirates counter with Wil Crowe, who has pitched better than his record would suggest. In four of his last five starts, Crowe has allowed 2 ER or less. This is perhaps the most favorable matchup he’ll get all season. Pittsburgh has revenge here as they were swept out in Arizona last month. Crowe did not pitch in that series, which saw the number of hits by the two clubs end up relatively even (35-34) despite the D’backs outscoring the Bucs 21-12. This time things will be different. This is an incredibly cheap price to fade Arizona on the road. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Celta de Vigo (4:00 ET): Normally I only play favorites on the three-way line, but this looks to be an incredible early season value on Celta de Vigo in a favorable matchup. The Sky Blues took the reigning La Liga champs Atletico Madrid to the limit on matchday one, only losing 2-1 in a spirited contest. They won the possession battle. Perhaps we shouldn’t be that shocked by this as Celta did finish 8th in the table last season, which is not too far off from Europa League qualifying. I think they will win on Monday. 

Osasuna has been back in the Spanish top flight for two years now, finishing 10th and 11th. Those are the club’s highest La Liga finishes in the last 10 years. Before that, they had spent four of the previous five seasons down in the Segunda Division. They hadn’t finished higher than 16th in the Primera Division since 2011/12. Their first match of the new season was a goalless draw with recently promoted Espanyol. Goal scoring was a bit of a problem for this team last season as they finished with only 37, or 18 fewer than Celta de Vigo. 

Celta de Vigo’s eighth place finish last season was their highest in awhile. While this may appear to be a battle of evenly matched, middle of the table sides, I think the visitors have a distinct advantage. They had solid away form last year (ninth most points in La Liga) and come in looking for their first win at Osasuna since 2014. Osasuna was not a particularly strong home side last season, dropping points in 12 of 19 matches. The visitors have more quality up front. 8* Celta de Vigo

8* Over Leicester City/West Ham (3:00 ET): The second matchweek of the Premier League season ends Monday in London Stadium as West Ham United hosts Leicester City. The visitors were 1-0 winners last week over the Wolves. Jamie Vardy got the lone goal at King Power Stadium. Now the Foxes hit the road for the 1st time, looking to avenge a pair of losses to the Hammers from last season. West Ham were also winners in the opening week as they came from behind to defeat Newcastle United 4-2. 

The goal for Leicester this season is obviously to finish top four and gain entrance to the Champions League. That is something that has eluded them each of the last two years, both times due to late season swoons. In addition to beating the Wolves last week, Leicester also recently defeated Man City 1-0 (on a late penalty kick) to win the Community Shield. Going back to a couple of friendlies over the summer, the Foxes have conceded only one time in their last four matches. 

But West Ham scored three goals in each of its two wins over Leicester last season. The second nearly saw the Foxes pull off a comeback for the ages as they made it 3-2 after falling behind 3-0. The Hammers also couldn’t be denied last week against Newcastle United. Four different players got on the scoresheet for that one. Leicester was tied for the third most goals scored in the Premier League last season. West Ham was sixth. Expect to see plenty of scoring on Monday. 8* Over Leicester City/West Ham

10* Cagliari (12:30 ET): While both of these sides finished near the bottom of the table last season, it was clearly Cagliari that finished with more momentum. Most of the credit goes to a managerial change. After Leonardo Semplici took over as the new boss, Cagliari suffered only five defeats in its final 15 matches. That may not sound all that impressive, but remember they’d gone on a 16-match winless streak before hiring Semplici. After finishing 16th and only four points clear of the relegation zone last year, Cagliari clearly expects to move closer to the middle of the table in 2021/22. 

Spezia had never played at this level of football before last season, so a 15th place finish (two points ahead of Cagliari) was satisfactory. But make no mistake about it, this second season in Serie A will see Spezia likely fighting off relegation. They lost manager Vincenzo Italiano to Fiorentina and his replacement (Thiago Motta) is relatively inexperienced with only a failed stint at Genoa on his resume. With several players’ loan contracts having expired and some veterans being let go, the roster is pretty thin. 

Cagliari will be plenty motivated Monday as they were unable to defeat Spezia last season. It was a 2-2 draw at home and 2-1 away loss. But there’s no doubt that this is a better team now. Further adding to the motivation is the fact Cagliari hasn’t won their opener since 2013. With four straight finishes at 14th or lower, they are going to be desperate for a win here. Look for them to get the full three points. 10* Cagliari

10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): With Jose Mourinho now guiding the ship, Roma starts its Serie A season by hosting Fiorentina. The Giallorossi finished seventh in the table last season, forcing them to qualify for the Europa League this season. Qualifying is going well as they were 2-1 winners Thursday night, getting them closer to the group stage. Now they take on a domestic rival that they’ve beaten four straight times. Considering the embarrassing way they opened last season, Roma certainly is going to want to start Mourinho’s return to Serie A with a bang. I look for them to nab the full three points here. 

Fiorentina finished in the bottom half of the table in 2020/21, some 22 points behind Roma. There was a real gap between the top eight and the middle of the table LY in Serie A. Fiorentina actually faced the prospect of relegation for much of last season. They finished only seven points clear of the drop zone. It has been a bit of a wild offseason here with former manager Gennaro Gattuso taking the job and then departing before a single match was played. 

Mourinho has had success in Serie A before. His 2.18 points per match ratio rates second best in the league this century. It was the fact that Roma had three fewer wins than sixth place Lazio last year that kept them from automatically qualifying for the Europa League. They had the same number of losses (12) as Lazio mind you, but the six-point gap was a byproduct of Lazio winning instead of settling for draws. Roma was forced to take a 3-0 loss in LY’s season opener due to failing to register a player properly. Mourinho will have his club ready to go to start 2021/22. 10* AS Roma

10* Run Line Toronto (1:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Blue Jays -1.5. I’ve been through this before, but in terms of wins & losses vs. run differential, no team has underperformed more this season than Toronto. They’ve outscored the opposition by 118 runs over the course of 2021. That’s the sixth best differential in all of baseball. But they are only 64-57 and 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. They did win Saturday, 3-0, and are due to win some more. I’m quite comfortable thinking they’ll win here by at least two runs. 

For a moment there, Detroit did climb into second place in the AL Central. But this isn’t a good team. They’ve now lost five of the last six games and the only time they displayed any real offense (Thursday), they blew an 8-run lead. They did win Friday, 4-1, but that was a game that went 10 innings. They struck out 15 times in that win, but were fortunate to turn four double plays - three of them inning-enders. Sunday’s starter Drew Hutchinson will be making just his second start of 2021. The first did not go well as he lasted only 1 ⅔ innings and gave up six runs. That was his 1st big league start in three years. 

Steven Matz will go for Toronto today. He allowed only one unearned run last Sunday when I took him against Seattle, a game that the Blue Jays won 8-3. Of the five runs that Matz has allowed over his L3 starts, three have been unearned. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in five of his previous six starts. There has to be a real sense of urgency for the home team, given the deficit they face in the Wild Card race. The Tigers are a team they should easily beat. The Blue Jays have dominated in day games this season (30-15) while the Tigers are just 1-6 coming off a shutout loss (8-21 L3 seasons). 10* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

8* Las Vegas (10:00 ET): The Rams didn’t play their starters last week nor will we see them here. HC Sean McVay has announced they will be given the entire preseason off. That’s a good way to keep your team healthy, but it doesn’t make for a profitable August. The Rams lack depth due to trading away several draft picks the last few years. They are up against it Saturday night and I’m going to lay the points. 

Jon Gruden is 8-1 ATS in the preseason since returning to the Raiders. Unlike McVay, he takes these preseason games rather seriously. Last week, the Silver and Black ran over Seattle in a 20-7 win and that was without QB Derek Carr. The Raiders outgained the Seahawks by nearly a 2:1 margin and had a 26-9 edge in first downs. 

These teams have been holding joint practice this week and the reports are the Raiders have looked good. The Rams lost 13-6 to the Chargers last week. The Raiders defense played really well last week and should dominate the Rams’ offensive backups. Marcus Mariota figures to be on the field for a little bit, so the Raiders offense should get off to a good start. 8* Las Vegas

10* Bea Malecki (8:40 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Bantamweight Division (145 lbs). Malecki comes in undefeated at 4-0 overall and 2-0 in the UFC. Her opponent, Josiane Nunes, will be making her UFC debut Saturday night. She comes in with a 7-1 career record. My view is that Malecki is going to win this one rather handily. 

Malecki has not fought since March of last year when she won a unanimous decision over Veronica Macedo. Before that, her UFC debut saw her prevail in relatively short order against Duda Santana, whom she submitted (rear-naked choke) in the second round. Her two fights before coming to the UFC were both first round stoppages. While only five fights in five years is an extremely small sample size, I’m confident we’ve seen enough from Malecki to make this a confident bet. She’s shown she can take punishment and still prevail. I expect her best performance to date here.

Nunes has been around longer and last fought in November of last year. She’s on a six-fight win streak, the last five of which have all been stoppages. But it’s a big step up in competition when moving to the UFC. Like Malecki, Nunes has not been shy about absorbing some punishment before coming out ahead. She will be looking for a “home run shot” here and that may be what ultimately costs here. Nunes will have a massive size edge in this fight as she is 5’9”. I don’t see Nunes getting close enough to inflict any serious damage. 10* Bea Malecki

10* Under Jets/Packers (4:25 ET): The Under is now a remarkable 17-3 in all preseason games. The total for this game at Lambeau Field on Saturday is one of the smallest yet. This makes sense based on the fact that the Packers' QB situation is rather dire. We know Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to waste his time playing. But backup Jordan Love, his alleged “heir apparent” is dealing with a shoulder injury and he might be out as well. Also, the Jets won their first preseason game by a score of 12-7. This promises to be a very low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

Even with Love on the field last week, the Packers weren’t doing much. He directed just one scoring drive on six possessions vs. a bad Texans defense. The final score was 26-7. It’s pretty clear that GB HC Matt LaFleur doesn’t care much for the preseason. He didn’t even dress 30 players last week. As unimpressive as Love was against the Texans, the running game may have been even worse as it gained only 49 yards on 21 attempts. If Love does not play this week, that means third-stringer Kurt Benkert will get the start and play most of the way. Love did not practice all week. 

There wasn’t much offense to speak of from the Jets’ game last week either. It was 3-0 going into halftime and 10-0 late in the 4Q. The only score the defense allowed came after a turnover, a drive that started at their own 17-yard line. The Jets defense, which allowed just 163 total yards last week and 3.7 yards per play, must have been angry as they finished off the game with a safety. On offense, rookie QB Zach Wilson went 6 of 9 for 63 yards on two drives. But the Jets’ running game was really bad, gaining only 2.4 yards per carry. I just don’t see many points being scored here. 10* Under Jets/Packers

10* Under Angels/Indians (4:10 ET): Yesterday’s game went Over the total by half a run, but that was with the Indians basically doing all the scoring. They won 9-1, snapping the Halos’ three-game win streak. Now the Tribe seek to do something that they’ve only been able to do one time in August. That's win back to back games. This isn’t a particularly strong offensive club (25th in team batting average, 27th in OBP), so I have my doubts. But rather than fade them, I’m taking the Under here. Starting for the home team this afternoon is Triston McKenzie and he’s been red hot of late. 

Last time out, McKenzie very nearly threw a perfect game. He didn’t allow a hit until the 8th inning as he retired the first 23 batters he saw. There were zero walks and 11 strikeouts. Over his L3 starts, McKenzie has a 0.524 WHIP, which is just plain sick. He’s allowed just 10 hits and 1 walk in his last 21 IP. As a reminder, the Angels scored just one run yesterday and had four hits. You have to figure they’ll struggle against facing McKenzie.

But Cleveland only averages 4.0 rpg when facing a left-handed starter. Today they are up against southpaw Reid Detmers. While Detmers struggled in his first two big league starts, giving up 11 runs in 9 ⅓ innings to the Dodgers and A’s, he came back with a solid outing last Sunday when he held Houston to one run and three hits over six innings. The Indians will be - by far - the weakest offensive club that Detmers has faced over his first four starts. The Under is 20-7-1 the L28 times LA has been an underdog. 10* Under Angels/Indians

10* Lazio (2:45 ET): One week after the Premier League, Bundesliga and La Liga all got started, Serie A gets underway on Saturday. There was a definite gap between the top five and everyone else last season in the Italian top flight. Finishing sixth was Lazio. In addition to qualifying for this season’s Europa League, Lazio is coming off a run to the knockout stage of the Champions League. They will certainly be expected to finish near the top again in 2021/22. They have a new manager, but an experienced squad. 

It is now time to welcome Empoli to the top level of Italian football. Last season’s winners of Serie B also have a new manager, although that was not their call as former boss Alessio Dionsi bolted for Sassuolo. Expectations for the newly promoted squad aren’t all that high. They haven’t finished higher than 18th at this level since 2015-16 when they were in the midst of a three-year run in the top flight. They’ve spent three of the last four seasons in Serie B. It will be a challenge to avoid relegation this season. 

Empoli was undefeated at home last season in Serie B, but they are in for a rude awakening here. Lazio has beaten them in each of the last five head to head meetings. This is a team that’s finished top five in Serie A in four of the last six seasons. The capital city outfit displayed fine form in the preseasons as well. Nearly blowing all of a three-goal lead in the first round of the Coppa Italia was a bad sign for Empoli. Look for Lazio to continue its head to head mastery. 10* Lazio

8* Borussia Dortmund (9:30 AM ET): Borussia Dortmund is obviously one of the favorites to win the Bundesliga this season. They finished third last season with 64 points and were a lot closer to champion Bayern Munich than 14-point gap suggests. But their hopes of unseating the nine-time champs in 2021/22 suffered a bit of a blow Tuesday when they fell 3-1 to Bayern in the DFL-Supercup Final. Now it’s back to the Bundesliga for a date at Freiburg, who hasn’t been on the pitch since opening its season with a 0-0 draw against Arminia Bielefeld. 

Dortmund opened its Bundesliga campaign with a very impressive 5-2 thrashing of Eintracht Frankfurt on matchday one. So they shouldn’t be hanging their heads too much over the midweek loss to Bayern. Erling Haaland is still here as manager Marco Rose (over from Borussia Monchengladbach) inherited a tremendously talented club. Haaland scored twice against Frankfurt while assisting on the other three goals. A decisive win over a side that finished top five in the Bundesliga a season ago was quite the way to start the season. Even with some expected absences, BVB is still far more talented than their opponents on Saturday. 

Freiburg did have an unbeaten preseason and has made progress in the DFB-Pokal. However, failing to score last week against an Arminia Bielefeld side that barely avoided relegation last season was not promising. Dortmund was the second highest scoring side in the Bundesliga last year. They don’t have to worry about Robert Lewandowski today. I know that Freiburg were pretty strong on home soil in 2020/21, including a 2-1 win over Dortmund, but they are a middle of the table side that is not in BVB’s same class. 8* Borussia Dortmund

8* Eintracht Frankfurt (9:30 AM ET): Eintracht Frankfurt was one of my favorites to move up in the Bundesliga standings last season. And move up they did, from 9th to 5th. The disappointment of not finishing in the top four had to sting a little, but perhaps not as much as a tumultuous offseason which saw the manager, CEO and top goal scorer all move on. A 5-2 loss at the hands of Borussia Dortmund is certainly not how new manager Oliver Glasner hoped to open the new season. But the former VfL Wolfsburg manager has a much easier fixture on tap for matchday two, at home. 

Augsburg was similarly thrashed in its opener, 4-0 against Hoffenheim. While Frankfurt can at least “handwave” its opening week defeat by pointing to the level of opposition, the same cannot be said here for Augsburg. Granted, Hoffenheim finished ahead of them in the table last season (so did a lot of teams), but not by much. In terms of expected goals, Augsburg’s loss was one of the worst efforts of the entire weekend in the Bundesliga.

Frankfurt did not lose a match at home last season and has beaten Augsburg in each of the last three meetings. This is a discounted price on the hosts, who are off a bad loss but facing a drop in class this week. 8* Eintracht Frankfurt

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): Arizona is in the midst of its most successful stretch since the end of April. They’ve won six of seven and for just the second time all year the D’backs are coming off a three-game sweep. But that sweep (of the Phillies) came at home. On the road, this team has been a disaster, going 14-45. That’s tied for the worst mark in MLB. Coincidentally, this weekend sees them facing the other team that has a 14-45 road record, Colorado. But unlike the D’backs, the Rockies are no joke at home. They currently sport a 41-21 record at Coors Field where they’ve won seven in a row. 

Home Field advantage has proven to be big in the NL West this year. Every team besides Arizona (who is 27-36 at home) has at least 40 home victories. Consider that only one other team outside the NL West has 40+ home wins on the season! The Rockies just swept the Padres here to start the week. This is a franchise that has long been defined by a stark home vs. road split. This season, that split has been taken to the extreme. The Rockies are 13-3 as home favorites of -125 to -175. 

Yes, I am fading Arizona’s Tyler Gilbert, who just threw a no-hitter in his big league debut. But that no-no came at home. Pitching in the thin air of Denver will be a much different experience for the rookie as the Rockies come in averaging a league-best 5.9 runs per game at home. Arizona is allowing a league-worst 5.7 rpg on the road. The Rockies just put up six or more runs in all three games vs. San Diego this week. Their starter, Austin Gomber, knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 6-2 TSR here this season with a 1.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. That includes six shutout innings in his last home start. The Rockies also had Thursday off, which is an additional advantage. 10* Colorado

8* Under Mariners/Astros (8:10 ET): By now, most are aware of my “feelings” on the Mariners. They have no business being in Wild Card contention. Not with a -42 YTD run differential. But they have won 8 of 10 and are coming off a three-game sweep of Texas. Five of their last eight wins have come at the Rangers’ expense. Key to Seattle’s success this season is their MLB-best 26-14 record in one-run games. They are also 10-4 in games decided in extra innings. Sure enough, they won 9-8 in 11 innings yesterday. 

Houston also won in extra innings on Thursday afternoon. Beating Kansas City 6-3 not only had them avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep, but kept them 2.5 games in front of Oakland for the division lead. The Astros have the top run differential in the American League right now (+164) and I’ve been saying all year that they will win the West. They also have MLB’s highest scoring offense at 5.3 runs per game. But their scoring average goes DOWN at home and I’m taking the Under in this one.

Seattle has one of the worst offenses in MLB. They are dead last in team batting average (.222) as well as bottom three in both OBP (.299) and OPS (.681). So this should be a mismatch in favor of the Astros. But Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi should be able to keep this one low-scoring. Kikuchi has a 2.97 ERA on the road and 13 quality starts this season. Only twice since the beginning of May has he allowed more than 3 ER in a start. Houston’s Lance McCullers should make this a nice pitcher’s duel though as he is 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 previous starts against the Mariners. From April 25th through August 3rd, McCullers had a nice stretch where he went 8-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts. 8* Under Mariners/Astros

10* Cincinnati (8:00 ET): Preseason lines shouldn’t be this high and when it’s a non-conference dog of 5.5 or more, taking the points has cashed better 60 percent of the time since 2004. So I’m going with the Bengals (plus the points) Friday night. They are coming off a 19-14 win over Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the preseason. Beating the defending Super Bowl Champs, even in a relatively meaningless matchup, was a nice way for Zac Taylor’s team to start the season. QB Joe Burrow, still recovering from ACL surgery, isn’t going to play here. But I’m confident that the Bengals can still win, or at the very least cover the spread.

Washington lost its first preseason game, 22-13 to New England. They gave up a long TD at the end of the game. That was after their own long 4Q scoring drive. We are likely to see starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for a series or two Friday night, but it won’t be long until he gives way to Taylor Heinicke and Steven Montez. Those two averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt in the first game. Kyle Allen is also expected to make his season debut tonight. But I don’t expect much from him. 

The Football Team’s defense also looked pretty bad in the second half last week. I think that is going to be the key here as - at the very worst - the proverbial “back door” will be open late for the Bengals to come in and steal the cover. The Bengals’ defense forced three turnovers last week and allowed only 159 total yards. The offense did turn it over four times, which I assume will be cleaned up this week. QB’s Kyle Shurmer and Brandon Allen combined to go 19 of 29 against the Bucs. I like the Bengals’ defensive line to make a few plays. Take the points. 10* Cincinnati

7* Real Betis (3:00 ET): Real Betis finished sixth in the La Liga table last season, so they are automatically a part of this season’s Europa League. I thought that they were a tad lucky to finish that high considering their goal differential was 0. There was a big gap between them and the top four. But considering it was the club’s highest finish since 2004/05, they’ll take it. Despite a relatively inactive summer, the Green and Whites have high aspirations for this campaign, so you have to figure they were quite disgusted with playing to a 1-1 draw with freshly promoted Mallorca on opening weekend. 

Cadiz is also coming off a 1-1 draw. They were behind until the 97th minute against Levante, so they ought to feel rather fortunate to have escaped with a point. I also think this side was fortunate to finish 12th in the table a season ago. They finished with the second lowest expected point total in all of La Liga and their goal differential (-22) was one of the worst in the entire league. The primary reason for that is they conceded the second highest number of goals. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Yellow Submarine finish in the relegation zone at the end of this year’s campaign. 

This is actually the 1st time since 1993 that Cadiz is in the Spanish top flight in back to back years. So history is against them in 2021/22. They lost 1-0 both times they faced Betis last season. I know Betis was a little fortunate in its own right to escape with a draw last week as their only score came on a Mallorca own goal. But they dominated possession (66%) in that match. They also dominated on home soil last year, picking up 35 points, which was only three fewer than Barcelona did at Camp Nou. I expect Betis to nab the full three points, just as they did in both fixtures with Cadiz last term. 7* Real Betis

10* Over Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): I took the Brew Crew on Tuesday. They won 2-0, ending the Cardinals’ six-game win streak. In my analysis, I noted how the entirety of the Cards’ win streak was at the expense of the Pirates and Royals, two last place teams, and this step up in class was likely to give them some trouble. Milwaukee is one of the best teams in baseball, with one of the best pitching staffs, and sure enough they were 6-4 winners last night. While that game only went Over because of extra innings (Brewers tied it in the top of the ninth), I think this one is likely to sneak Over as well! 

Now playing the Over when Brandon Woodruff starts for Milwaukee hasn’t been all that smart. The Under is 8-2 when Woodruff starts on the road. But you should note one of those Overs came in his last start, which was at Wrigley Field. There, the Brewers scored 17 runs in an absolute rout. Not saying that Woodruff is going to get that kind of support yet again. But the fact he had to leave that last start after three innings seems like a concern. He needed 74 pitches to retire just nine batters. The Brewers’ bullpen was taxed yesterday (seven relievers used), so if Woodruff can’t go deep into the game, they are in trouble. 

The Cardinals wasted an early 3-0 lead yesterday and didn’t score at all from the third through ninth inning. They have averaged 5.3 rpg over the last week though and will need to approach that average tonight due to Jon Lester starting for them. Lester has struggled in his first three starts for St. Louis (traded from Washington), posting a 6.75 ERA. He was better his last time out, but that was his second straight time facing the last place Royals. Lester has a 5.32 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for the season. He’s just not the pitcher he once was. 10* Over Brewers/Cardinals

10* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): The Eagles looked good for a half in Week 1 of the preseason. They took a 16-7 lead into the break after four scoring drives of six or more plays. The biggest play came when Joe Flacco (remember him?) threw a 79-yard TD pass to Quez Watkins late in the first quarter. But despite more than 200 yards of offense in the 1H, it was not meant to be. The Eagles’ defense was torched in the second half, giving up three long scoring drives that totaled 17 points. As a result, they lost to the Steelers 24-16. I think that loss will have the new coaching staff even hungrier for Week 2. I’m taking the points.

New England was a 22-13 winner in its first preseason game. But that score was a little misleading as they got a late 91-yard TD run with just over a minute to go. Of course, that was after giving up a long TD drive right before. The big story in Patriots’ camp is at QB. You’ve got Cam Newton competing with rookie Mac Jones for the starting job. Both saw action last week. Newton was just 4 of 7 for 49 yards. Jones completed 13 of 19 passes, but for only 87 yards. So neither was taking any chances.

Unless something shocking happens in the next two weeks, Jalen Hurts is going to be the Eagles’ starting QB come Week 1 of the regular season. He was 3 of 7 in the opener. Hurts has reportedly looked good during the joint practices this week. There will be a sense of familiarity by kickoff Thursday night. But in the end, this comes down to a first year coaching staff not wanting to lose a second straight week at home. Expect Eagles HC Nick Sirianni to play to win. 10* Philadelphia

8* Under Phillies/D’backs (3:40 ET): If you recall, I wasn’t buying the Phillies back when they were on an eight-game win streak and in first place in the National League East. So it’s not a big shock to see that they’ve come crashing back down, losing six of their last eight games. What is surprising is the last two losses have come against the D’backs, a horrible team that has the lowest win percentage in the entire Senior Circuit. Philly has just four runs and seven hits in the first two games and could now be swept by a team that has just four win streaks of three games or longer all season. 

If the Phillies are to avoid the sweep, it will likely be because of today’s starter Zack Wheeler. Though he has twice given up four runs over his L3 starts, Wheeler has generally been outstanding in 2021. He is #1 among all starters in innings pitched (162), strikeouts (187) and complete games (three). He’s struck out 10+ batters in six different starts this season. Arizona does not exactly have the most fearsome lineup and Wheeler is 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in seven career starts against them. 

But my fear with the Phillies this afternoon is that they are not likely to score many runs. Over the last week, they’ve averaged less than three per game. They face Madison Bumgarner, who has strung together a pretty strong six-start stretch since coming back from injury. MadBum has a 2.09 ERA over the six starts, which have seen him allow 2 ER or less every time out. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 11 games. I look for a pitcher’s duel this afternoon in the desert. 8* Under Phillies/D’backs

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox go for the sweep on Thursday. After winning the first two games rather comfortably, 5-2 and 9-0, they had to hold on last night for a 3-2 victory. It was a game defined by unexpected pitching changes. Originally, Oakland was set to start Cole Irvin, but the lefty got pushed back to today “in favor” of Paul Blackburn. The change likely had something to do with the news that Chris Bassitt will miss significant time. White Sox starter Lance Lynn lasted only four innings as he was ejected for complaining about a foreign substance check. 

Pretty clearly, the White Sox have shown a better ability to adapt in this series. They are now 42-22 at home this season, including 21-7 as a favorite of -125 to -175. The bullpen did its job yesterday, now it’s Dylan Cease’s turn to lead the way this afternoon. Cease has a 2.44 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home this year and has been piling up the strikeouts of late. He also hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last seven starts. It’s certainly worth noting that the A’s have scored a grand total of four runs in the first three games of this series.

This will be the 1st time Irvin is starting against a non-division foe since July 3rd. The lefty has a 2-4 TSR his L6 outings, although he hasn’t pitched all that poorly. But he’s facing a pretty dominant home team today and the White Sox are 38-14 their L52 games when facing a lefty. Furthermore, Oakland is just 1-5 when losing the first three games of a series. 8* Chi White Sox

10* Under Braves/Marlins (7:10 ET): I’m 2 for 2 so far in this series, having won with the Braves on Monday and then Under on Tuesday. That combo is likely to hit again tonight, but considering the “price tag” on Atlanta (now -200 on ML), the Under certainly seems to carry more value. In yesterday’s analysis, I mentioned that - on average - LoanDepot Park in Miami has seen the second fewest number of runs per game scored of any stadium in MLB (Citi Field is #1). That average is now down to 7.7 rpg after yday’s 2-0 final. The only runs scored last night came in the eighth and ninth innings. Take the Under again. 

Wednesday starter Charlie Morton is having a fine season for Atlanta. The veteran right-hander has won 9 of his past 11 decisions and is working on a streak of seven straight starts with 3 ER or less allowed. He’s gone at least six innings six times in that seven start stretch with a 2.57 ERA and 1.048 WHIP. The Under is 3-0 his L3 starts. The last time Morton pitched here in Miami, he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed only two hits (5-0 Atlanta win). The Marlins have really struggled at the plate in this series, scoring only two runs on eight hits. Last night marked the 11th time they’ve been shutout this season. 

The Braves are really surging right now and I do expect them to win the NL East. But, something else I mentioned in yday’s analysis is how their scoring average dips on the road, from 5.2 runs per game at home to 4.6 on the road. For the first time, they’ll face Jesus Luzardo tonight. Luzardo came over from the A’s in the Starling Marte trade and he has struggled with his command in three starts for Miami. But one start in Colorado really skews his numbers. Marlins’ opponents are averaging just 3.7 rpg here in Miami and hitting .218. That’s for the year. Luzardo will pitch better than expected. 10* Under Braves/Marlins

8* Over Red Sox/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees swept Tuesday’s doubleheader and are now tied with the Red Sox for second place in the AL East. The two wins yesterday also moved them into a three-way tie with Oakland in the Wild Card race. Only two of the three teams can make it and you still shouldn’t discount Toronto (four games back) either. The two games yesterday (both seven innings, remember) were relatively low-scoring affairs: 5-3 and 2-0. But it should be noted that in the first game, Boston had the bases loaded in the top of the ninth (with no outs) and did not score. I like the Over today.

The Yankees are definitely surging right now as they’ve won five straight and 12 of the last 15 games. Their 45-23 record in games decided by two runs or less is the best in all of MLB. The offense is scoring more now and I like its chances against Nick Pivetta, who has somehow not started any of the 15 times Boston has faced the Yankees this year. Pivetta is coming off B2B strong outings, but this Yankees lineup is getting healthier and could get Anthony Rizzo back from the COVID-19 list tonight. 

Twice in the last seven games, the Red Sox have put up 16 and 20 runs. So their lineup must be respected. It’s still top six in MLB in runs scored. Yesterday they went 2 for 14 with RISP and the middle of the order (Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez) went 3 for 18 overall. You have to expect better in this one. Especially when Yankees’ starter Andrew Heaney has posted a 9.00 ERA over his L3 starts. Heaney has had a bit of a rough season and that’s led to the Over being 15-5-1 in his 21 starts. He allowed seven runs his last time out. 8* Over Red Sox/Yankees

10* Milwaukee (7:45 ET): St. Louis returns home following a 6-0 road trip. But the two teams they swept - Pittsburgh and Kansas City - are both in last place and a couple of real “lightweights.” While the win streak has the Cardinals five games above .500, they still have a -21 run differential on the year and more importantly they still trail first place Milwaukee by 10 games in the NL Central. The Brewers are the opponents to start this week and this is a big step up in class from what the Cards have faced over the L7 days. Talk about winning on the road - the Brew Crew have 40 road wins this season - the most in MLB. 

I love the fact that Corbin Burnes is on the mound today for Milwaukee. While St. Louis has scored 4+ runs in 11 consecutive games, there are only three teams in all of baseball that average a fewer number of runs per game. Burnes has been one of the top pitchers of 2021, posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 20 starts. The team has won each of the last five times he’s taken the mound, four of those being quality starts. He’s allowed 1 or 0 ER in seven of his last eight starts. Last time out, he struck out 10 consecutive batters! In two starts vs. the Cardinals this year, Burnes has allowed only one run and six hits total (11 IP). 

The Brewers’ only loss in the last seven games was part of a doubleheader with Pittsburgh. They’ve now had two of the last four days off. This is one of the best teams in baseball and with this pitching staff, they certainly stand a chance to win the NL pennant. In case you couldn’t tell, I’m not sold at all on St. Louis, who sends Adam Wainwright out to the mound Tuesday. Wainwright has pitched well recently, but that’s because his L5 starts have all come against sub-.500 foes. I look for Burnes to dominate here and the Brew Crew to end the Cards’ win streak. 10* Milwaukee

8* Under Braves/Marlins (7:10 ET): I had Atlanta yesterday and they rolled to a 12-2 win in the series opener. If you read that analysis, then you know I’m pretty high on the Braves right now and expect them to win the NL East for a fourth straight year. That confidence is based on the fact they currently sport a +82 run differential. No other team in the division even has a positive run differential. RD is typically an excellent barometer for projecting future performance. Throw in the fact that the Braves have won four straight and 11 of their last 13 and they SHOULD be feeling pretty good about themselves right now. 

But I don’t see them scoring 12 runs again tonight, or even close to that number. I had zero issue fading Marlins’ lefty Braxton Garrett last night as the Braves came in on a 6-0 run vs. southpaws. But tonight they must deal with Sandy Alcantara, a righty. Don’t be fooled by Alcantara’s 3-8 TSR at home. He’s pitched really well here (2.58 ERA, 0.947 WHIP). The Under is 8-2-1 in all Alcantara home starts. Though I was supremely confident in them last night, it should be pointed out that the Braves’ scoring average dips from 5.2 runs per game at home to 4.6 on the road. Alcantara is 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA in six career starts vs. Atlanta. 

Marlins’ home games are typically low-scoring. You’re looking at an average of 7.8 total runs per game scored. That’s the second lowest average of any park in all of baseball (Citi Field is the lowest). Atlanta only gives up 3.9 rpg away from home, so we really look to be in good shape with this play. Starting for the Braves on Tuesday will be Huascar Ynoa, who has not pitched since May due to breaking his hand punching the dugout bench. Before breaking his hand, Ynoa had eight starts under his belt and allowed two runs or less in six of them. 8* Under Braves/Marlins

8* Run Line Toronto (7:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Blue Jays -1.5. Toronto is a team that the marketplace seems to love and so do I. Despite being only 63-54 (4th place in the AL East), the Jays have outscored their opposition by 127 runs this season. That’s the fifth best differential in all of baseball! Their weekend in Seattle was not as good as I’d expected (dropped two of three), but a visit to the Nation’s capital should go well as they find the host Nationals on a seven-game losing streak. You can look for the visitors to win this game by at least two runs. 

Over the past week, Washington has lost four one-run games and is now in last place in the NL East. I expected better from the 2019 World Series Champs this season, but the current starting rotation doesn’t even come close to resembling what the team had planned going into Opening Day. Only one of five starters remain from the planned rotation, that being Patrick Corbin, is still around. Erick Fedde will get the nod here and he hasn’t won a decision since June 12th. Over his L7 starts, Fedde has a 6.25 ERA and 1.674 WHIP. He’s made it through six innings only two times during that stretch. 

Tonight, Fedde will be opposed by Alek Manoah, who is a perfect 3-0 his L3 starts with a 1.93 ERA and 0.911 WHIP. Manoah had a career-high 11 strikeouts his last time out and that was on the road. Of course, it also helps that Toronto has scored 10+ runs in four of Manoah’s last seven starts. They probably won’t need to do that here though as the righty faces a NL lineup (no DH) and a weak one at that. The Jays’ WL record “should” be so much better than it is and I’m expecting a big finish to the season from them. Based on their run differential, you’d “expect” them to have a record of 72-45! 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* Under Indians/Twins (8:10 ET): Cleveland got an outstanding pitching performance from starter Triston McKenzie on Sunday. McKenzie flirted with a perfect game, retiring the first 23 batters he saw. He left after allowing just one hit in eight innings. The Indians won 11-0. The team can probably expect another strong effort on the mound today as Cal Quantrill gets the starting nod. Over his L6 starts, Quantrill has allowed a total of five runs in 36 IP. All six games have stayed Under the total. I think this one will too as Quantrill will be opposed by another pitcher who has put up impressive numbers of late. 

That would be Griffin Jax of Minnesota. Jax's first career big league victory came at the Indians’ expense back on June 25th. It was in a relief effort. As a starter, Jax has done quite well. All five starts have stayed Under with him posting a 2.76 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in the last three. Though the number of runs he allowed in his last start (three) were equal to the number he allowed in the previous three combined, it was arguably Jax’s finest effort to date as he struck out a season-high 10 batters in a 4-3 win over the White Sox. None of Jax’s starts have seen more than nine total runs scored in the game. Same for Quantrill and those L6 starts. 

Minnesota’s last three series were all against division leaders. Surprisingly, they won all three series. Two of the last three wins have come in shutout fashion. But they’ve also been held to one run or less in their last three losses. Cleveland, off a shutout win, isn’t much of a threat to score as they average just 4.1 rpg on the road while hitting a collective .227. They are bottom five in both team batting average and on base percentage for the year. Look for a good old fashioned pitchers duel on Monday. 10* Under Indians/Twins

8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): The Braves have won four consecutive series openers and six straight when facing a left-handed starter. So they have to be ecstatic today as they open up a three-game series with Miami and face a southpaw in Braxton Garrett. The Braves are also now alone in first place in the NL East after sweeping a three-game series from Washington over the weekend. When you look at the respective run differentials of all the teams in this division, first place is definitely where the Braves belong. This is a tough matchup for Garrett, a rookie, facing a lineup where the entire starting infield has 22+ homers on the season. 

Miami is also coming off a sweep, albeit against the moribund Cubs. But a four-game win streak matches a season-high for the Marlins, who are now out of last place in the division. They passed Washington, who - as I just mentioned in the preceding paragraph - got swept by Atlanta.. The Marlins’ everyday lineup now features as many as three rookies. So I’m not exactly expecting a big stretch run from them. They’ve already faced the Braves six times in July and lost four of the games. The Braves are 41-18 the L59 meetings. 

Atlanta, who has won 10 of 12 overall and seven straight on the road, turns to Touki Toussaint for this series opener. Toussiant is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four previous appearances vs. Miami. When handicapping this NL East race, I have to come back to run differential. The Braves have scored 72 more runs than they’ve allowed this season. Every other team in the division sports a negative run differential. So while both of these teams are coming off sweeps, the larger bodies of work clearly point to one team continuing their winning ways. That would be the Braves. 8* Atlanta

10* Villarreal (2:00 ET): Reigning Europa League Champion Villarreal, fresh off a UEFA Super Cup loss to Chelsea, will look to bounce back Monday and open the La Liga campaign with a win. The annual match between the winner of the Champions League and winner of the Europa League was not settled after 90 minutes, nor 120, so things went to a shootout where the Yellow Submarine fell 6-5. Villarreal finished seventh in the La Liga table last season, quite a bit off the pace of the top four. I expect them to finish closer to the top this term and start the season by getting the full three points in this one. 

Granada, like Villarreal, has finished in the top half of the table each of the last two seasons. However, advanced metrics say they were lucky to do that - at least they were last season. Granada actually finished third worst in expected points in 2020/21, so I’m looking for a drop in the standings this year. While their opponents are coming off a high-profile match, Granada hasn’t played a competitive affair in three months. They did win three of five friendlies over the summer, but that hardly prepares them for what they are up against here. 

Granada hasn’t beaten Villarreal in the Spanish top flight since 2014. Now that’s a little misleading as they spent a couple seasons relegated in the Segunda Division. The B2B top nine finishes are impressive. But only one La Liga side (relegated Eibar) lost more times last season. They also conceded the most goals in the entire league! A top nine finish was a minor miracle. But now they have a new, unproven manager.  If Villarreal hopes to finish in the top four this year, then this is a match where they must take the full three points. 10* Villarreal

10* Toronto (4:10 ET): This has been a very frustrating series for both me and the Blue Jays. Seattle has won both games despite having fewer number of hits. Friday’s 3-2 win was very typical of the Mariners’ season as they have gone a MLB-best 25-14 in one-run games. They won on a bases loaded walk after a Toronto runner was called out at the plate (after review) in the top half of the ninth. Yesterday’s 9-3 final score was misleading in the sense the Mariners had more runs than hits and it was a 2-2 game heading into the seventh inning. I just can’t see Toronto being swept here.

These teams enter Sunday sporting identical .534 win percentages. That is a crime. Toronto has the fifth best run differential in all of baseball (+122) while Seattle has a -42 run differential. The record in one-run games has been a big reason why the Mariners have overachieved so much this year, in terms of wins and losses. A team with their run differential would be “expected” to have a WL record of 54-64. A team with the Blue Jays’ run differential would be “expected” to have a WL record of 71-45. So you’ve got a situation where teams with identical win percentages “should” be separated by 18 games. That’s just incredible. 

Toronto lost George Springer to an ankle injury yesterday, which stings. But I still believe that baseball’s most underachieving team can get it done against the most overachieving team. Steven Matz began August with six shutout innings in a victory over Cleveland. He wasn’t as fortunate last time out, but two of the four runs he gave up were unearned. Logan Gilbert has an 11-4 TSR for Seattle, but hasn’t pitched nearly as well as you’d think. There have been six Gilbert starts this season where he did not factor into the decision and the team won by one run. He has an 0-2 TSR in August though. 10* Toronto

8* Under Rockies/Giants (4:05 ET): One component of this Under should be rather easy. Colorado averages a pitiful 3.1 runs per game on the road. That’s the fewest in all of MLB. San Francisco is giving up only 3.7 rpg for the year. That ranks 2nd overall. The Giants have Alex Wood going Sunday. The team is 4-0 in his last four starts even though Wood has been far from his best in the last three. He’s faced Colorado twice this year and given up only four runs in 11 IP. I’m confident the Rockies aren’t going to score many runs on Sunday. 

But the Giants only scored once in a (4-1) loss Saturday. That was after winning the first two games of the series 7-0 and 5-4. Yesterday marked just the 14th road win of the season for the Rockies. They still only had five hits though. The loss snapped the Giants’ six-game win streak. I think they should continue to “cool off” at the plate though as they go against Jon Gray here.Back in May, Gray allowed only two runs in six innings when he faced the Giants at home. 

The Giants are big favorites Sunday though and that should be respected. Assuming they do win today, that means we won’t have to worry about playing the bottom of the ninth, which is nice when you have the Under. The Under is 8-2 in Colorado’s L10 games after allowing two runs or less the last game. The Giants are 7-0 Under the L7 Sundays. I don’t see many runs being scored in this one. 8* Under Rockies/Giants

8* Under A’s/Rangers (2:35 ET): After having their seven-game win streak snapped Friday, the A’s wasted little time getting back on track with a 8-3 win over the Rangers Saturday. Considering Texas is the last place team in the division, and one of the worst teams in baseball, it’s surprising that Oakland is only 9-6 in the head to head series this year. Looking at today’s game, the A’s have never been priced higher on the money line for any road game than they are here. I’m not too keen on playing them at this price, but I do believe they’ll keep the Rangers’ weak offense in check. Take the Under.

Texas is the lowest scoring team in the American League. They are 29th in MLB in team batting average, 30th (i.e. last) in on base percentage, 29th in slugging and 30th in OPS. So that’s bottom two in the four major categories. So Sean Manaea, despite off a couple shaky starts, should have an easy job this afternoon. In 14 career starts vs. the Rangers, Manaea is 7-3 with a 3.65 ERA. He had ended July with B2B quality starts, allowing one run on four hits total. He also had 22 strikeouts in the two starts (13 IP).

So in terms of the Under, it’s probably up to the Rangers to keep Oakland’s bats in check. Starter Kolby Allard has yet to win at home this season (0-6). But his WHIP (1.182) is not all that bad and he’s coming off B2B quality starts. Against both the Angels and Mariners, Allard allowed just two runs in six innings. Given how Oakland has been swinging the bats recently, I know it seems “risky” to take the Under. But they only give up 3.6 runs per game on the road. Texas won’t score much and I don’t think Oakland will either. 8* Under A’s/Rangers