10* Under Royals/Twins (2:10 ET): Minnesota has been scoring at an extraordinary clip this season, leading the league w/ a 6.0 rpg average. But I'll call for their bats to remain relatively "quiet" today as they finish up a three-game set w/ the Royals. The Twins have taken the first two of this three-game set, but in doing so it's been their pitching leading the way. They've held KC to just four runs (all of them coming yday), which shouldn't come as too much of a surprise given the Royals have been one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball this season. Take the Under here.

Going today for the Twins will be Martin Perez, one of the many surprising arms in their rotation. While Perez has struggled some of late, he still has very good numbers here at Target Field, including a 2.70 ERA. Four of the five times he's started here at home, the game has stayed Under. This will be Perez's first time facing the Royals in 2019, but seeing how none of the other Twins' starters have struggled against them, I expect a quality outing here. He has a 2.29 ERA in three previous starts vs. Kansas City. Minnesota is allowing just 3.4 runs per game at home for the year. 

The Twins actually score fewer runs per game at home than they do on the road. On the road, they've been pretty ridiculous averaging a league high 6.6 rpg. But at home, that number drops to a more modest 5.2 rpg. They've only scored seven runs total the L2 days. Kansas City blew a golden opportunity to "steal one" yday as they had an early 4-1 lead, but went 0 for 7 w/ RISP. I do like Sunday starter Jake Junis' chances of slowing down this Twins' offense, however. Junis has gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less three of his last four starts. His L3 starts have all gone Under. 10* Under Royals/Twins

8* Boston (1:05 ET): The Red Sox dug themselves an early hole by starting the season 6-13. But they've climbed out of it by going 32-21 since and can make it five straight wins today by beating the lowly Orioles. They're in position to sweep after a 7-2 win yday as they've now outscored the O's 20-4 the previous two days. A win today would also make it five straight over Baltimore dating back to a series from last month. Baltimore does have John Means starting here, which is why the ML is lower than you'd expect, but even he still has a 4-7 TSR as the O's remain the worst team in baseball. 

Now Means has pitched well at Camden Yards, something you really can't say for any other Baltimore pitcher. The Orioles are giving up a ghastly 7.0 runs per game at home this season, which is easily the most rpg allowed by any team at home this year. Overall, Baltimore has given up the second most runs in all of baseball this year (Seattle). As I said, Means has pitched well here and he's been the team's most effective starter. But even so, they've still lost 7 of his 11 starts. The fact that he's gone longer than six innings only once is a big deal w/ the Orioles' bullpen being as bad as it is.

Baltimore is the only team in baseball not to have won 10 home games yet (9-27 at home) and eventually opposing hitters are going to figure out Means' changeup. Part of the reason Means hasn't gone deeper into games is that he has a tendency to run up his pitch count. Like I already said, the Red Sox have run up 20 runs in two games on Baltimore pitching. Meanwhile, the Orioles have scored just five runs total in their last three games vs. Boston. I know Brian Johnson isn't the most impressive arm the Red Sox could trot to the mound today. But he should pitch well enough for his team to finish the sweep. 8* Boston

10* Under Winnipeg/British Columbia (10:00 ET): The CFL's Western Division seems more wide open than usual this year as defending Grey Cup Champion Calgary took a pretty big hit in the talent department. All five teams in the division feel "this could be their year," perhaps not a realistic expectation, but that's what they're saying at least. For B.C., chances of improving on LY's 9-9 campaign due seem quite realistic thanks to the big free agent signing of QB Mike Reilly. However, I feel the O/U line has been set far too high for this season opener w/ Winnipeg and I'm going Under. 

Winnipeg finished a game better than B.C. last year and was also able to advance one round in the playoffs, something the Lions were unable to do. The Blue Bombers still haven't won a Grey Cup since 1990 and the strength of LY's team (offensive line) took a hit w/ two key defections - one via retirement, the other via free agency. That should affect the run game, which was quite productive for the Bombers a season ago. The defense should still be strong though. Last year, only Calgary surrendered fewer points. The Under is 5-1 in the Bombers' last 6 division contests. 

B.C. saw HC Wally Bueno retire, but his replacement is a good one as DeVone Claybrooks comes over from the Calgary staff. Claybrooks presided over the league's top defense a year ago, so expect that side of the ball to be a priority in year one. On offense, I think it'll take time for Reilly to gel w/ his new teammates. The Under has cashed in the Leos' last four season openers and I think Saturday night makes it five in a row. 10* Under Winnipeg/B.C. 

6* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): The Dodgers have proven to be too strong for the Cubs thus far, taking the first two games of this series 7-3 and 5-3. As I said yday (took the Under and 'pushed.'), a pretty clear case can be made that this is the National League's best team. They have the best record (47-23) and best run differential (+111) w/ comfortable leads in both departments. At home is where they've really been dominant as their record at Chavez Ravine is now 27-7 and they're outscoring visitors by 2.3 runs per game! Save for Wednesday's win in Colorado (which I was on!), the Cubs have now dropped 9 of 10 away from the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. 

Making matters even more difficult for the Cubbies tonight is they have to go against Walker Buehler. They've already faced Clayton Kershaw & Rich Hill. Buehler will be no reprieve in this department and tomorrow they'll have to see Hyun-Jin Ryu. So this series really did not set up well from the start. Buehler is 7-1 in 13 starts w/ a 0.982 WHIP and the Dodgers have won each of the last four times he's taken the mound. He's gone a combined 15 innings in his last two starts and given up just one run. As the Cubs have found out the "hard way" the L2 days, it is difficult to score here at Dodger Stadium, at least when you're the visitor. Opposing teams are scoring just 3.4 rpg here. The Cubs' scoring average on the road (5.6 rpg) was due to take a hit anyway. 

This could prove to be a challenging start for the Cubs' Yu Darvish. Last time he took the mound in this stadium was wearing Dodger Blue in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series and he basically cost his team the game. So expect a more fired up crowd here than usual for a game in June. Darvish has been a little better of late, but overall his numbers are still below par. The Cubs are just 1-6 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. 6* LA Dodgers

7* Colorado (8:10 ET): It was a wild one last night here at Coors Field w/ the Padres defeating the Rockies 16-12 in a game that went 12 innings. You'll get those kind of high-scoring results sometimes in the thin air of Denver, but the Padres scoring 16 runs in a game was abnormal to say the least. Keep in mind that they rallied for six runs in the ninth to tie the game at 11-11. San Diego had never overcome a deficit of 6+ runs in the ninth according to Elias nor had Colorado ever blown a lead of that size. I think the Rockies get some revenge Saturday. 

I can't say that I'm sold on this Padres team, which has been outscored by 33 runs this season. Last night snapped a five-game losing skid, which included a 9-6 loss here in Denver Thursday night. Though they had lost five in a row before last night's miraculous rally, San Diego is a team that has experienced mostly good fortune in 2019, at least in close games. They have 16 one-run victories this season, which is the most in all of MLB. That aforementioned run differential speaks to this being a below average team. They were just 1-5 vs. Colorado before yday's win and are 1-3 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. 

Tonight's pitching matchup features two good starters, but I give the edge to German Marquez over Eric Lauer. Yes, the former has a much higher ERA and WHIP at home than on the road. But he still has a 7-1 TSR at Coors, so he knows how to win here. As for San Diego's Eric Lauer, he already has troubling numbers on the road (6.84 ERA), so Coors may not be for him. In fact, starting opposite Marquez here in May, Lauer gave up eight runs in only three innings. That was - by far - his worst outing all season. Marquez is unbeaten in three career starts vs. SD at home, posting a 2.93 ERA. 7* Colorado 

10* Under Pirates/Marlins (6:10 ET): Pittsburgh has now gone Over in five straight games as well as 35 of their last 51 games overall. Lately, it had been them giving up runs in bunches (allowed 34 in four games at Atlanta), but last night was their turn to "turn it on at the plate" as they crushed Miami 11-0. While that singular win will help out the team's woeful YTD run differential (-77) some, I wouldn't think that we'll see any kind of repeat effort at the plate on Saturday. They're also facing a Miami team that has scored the fewest number of runs in the entire NL. Take the Under. 

So the Marlins were shutout yday, something that has turned into a bit of a regular occurrence in 2019. It was the 12th time it's happened this season and keep in mind they've played just 67 games total. So we're looking at almost one-fifth of the time they fail to even score a run. Just as bad of news for them today is that they are 0-4 this season after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Last night was their seventh loss in the last eight games. In six of those seven losses, they were held to one run or less! One of the wins though (Wednesday) was a shutout of their own. 

Having Pablo Lopez on the bump tonight helps the Marlins' chances. He's made three straight quality starts (posting a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP) and has allowed 1 or 0 ER in four of his last five outings. Lopez also pitches much better here at home (1.78 ERA in six starts) than on the road. For the Pirates, Dario Agrazal is making his 1st big league start, becoming the 12th different pitcher to start a game for them in 2019. Agrazal looked great down in Triple-A, holding batters to a .216 average while posting a 0.97 WHIP. In 8 of his L10 starts, he went at least six innings while allowing two runs or less. So the Pirates have high hopes for him. So do I as the amount of scoring in their games is due to subside. A matchup w/ the NL's lowest scoring team is an ideal time for that to take place. 10* Under Pirates/Marlins

8* Under Brewers/Giants (4:10 ET): Based on Jimmy Nelson's first start for Milwaukee, the last thing you might want to do here is bet the Under. Facing the NL's weakest lineup (Miami), Nelson gave up five runs in only three innings, leading to a 12.33 ERA and 2.333 WHIP. However, that was also Nelson's first start since 2017 (missed all of last year recovering from right shoulder surgery). I think he'll pitch a lot better today as the Brew Crew look to bounce back from a 5-3 loss last night here in San Francisco. I'm on the Under.

Milwaukee could only manage three runs last night as they lost for just the second time in its last seven games. That was disappointing given the pitcher they were facing, Drew Pomeranz, who was 0-3 in May w/ a 19.16 ERA. It's a far more formidable task this afternoon going against Madison Bumgarner, who has had their number in the past w/ a 2.63 ERA in 12 starts. Bumgarner also comes into Saturday on a real roll. He's delivered four straight quality starts, including seven innings Sunday vs. the Dodgers where he allowed just one run and four hits. Unfortunately for him, the Giants lost that game 1-0.

The Giants are not a good offensive team, especially here at home where they're barely averaging 3.0 runs per game. So w/ Bumgarner on the hill, this sets up to be another really low-scoring game. SF is 28th in MLB in runs scored, 29th in team batting average and 29th in OPS. They did manage to homer three times in yday's victory, but I would not expect anything close to a repeat performance considering they'd hit just three HR's their previous five games behind. Nelson is better than what he showed in his return. Also, the Under is 13-2-1 the L16 times Milwaukee has faced a lefty starter. 8* Under Brewers/Giants 

8* Under Cubs/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Los Angeles has clearly emerged as the best team in the Senior Circuit (National League) as they have the best run differential (+109) and best overall win percentage (46-23). No team is even within 40 of that run diff and they are also six games clear of the next best team, record-wise. The Dodgers improved to 26-7 at home last night w/ an impressive 7-3 win over the Cubs, who have suddenly forgotten how to win on the road. Save for Wednesday's win in Colorado (which I was on!), the Cubbies have dropped eight of nine away from the Friendly Confines. 

Tonight features an excellent pitching matchup of Rich Hill vs. Kyle Hendricks. The Dodgers don't give up many runs to begin with (just 3.4 per game at home) and Hill has played a major role in that allowing 2 ER or less in each of his last five outings. That stretch has seen him give up only five runs TOTAL in 30 IP. His last start here at Chavez Ravine saw him toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball (against Philadelphia). I know that the Cubs are averaging 5.6 runs per game on the road, but that seems like an unsustainable number moving forward. 

Not only should Hill quiet the Cubs' bats here, but Hendricks should do the same to the Dodgers. Hendricks has been on fire of late w/ four straight quality starts. He'll look to make it five here at a place that hasn't treated him all that well in the past, but this should be different. Hendricks comes in having won six straight decisions overall and has not lost since May 3rd, posting a 1.99 ERA. He's won each of his last three starts, posting a 0.909 WHIP and all three games stayed Under. This one will too. 8* Under Cubs/Dodgers

8* Under Yankees/White Sox (8:10 ET): As the odds seem to indicate, the White Sox actually have a fighting chance tonight against the Yankees and it's because of who's starting for them. Lucas Giolito has been absolutely filthy in his 12 starts, posting a 10-2 team start record to go along w/ a 2.28 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He's been even better than normal recently, going 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 1.17 ERA and 0.609 WHIP. Giolito comes into Friday riding a 15 inning scoreless streak, a stretch which has also seen him strike out 20 batters. He hasn't given up any runs in three of his last four starts overall.

Even w/o Giolito, the White Sox were able to beat the Yanks yday, doing so by a score of 5-4. Making the win all the more impressive is the fact Chicago had to rally from a 4-0 deficit. Leury Garcia provided the difference w/ a go-ahead solo HR in the seventh. Don't look for Chicago to fall into any sort of similar hole tonight as Giolito is actually 8-0 w/ a 1.69 ERA his L10 starts and will be going for an eighth straight win. The Under has cashed the last seven times he's pitched w/ the opposing teams combining for FIVE total runs (four shutouts!). Should we be ready to give Giolito the Cy Young already? He is third in the AL in ERA and he's held opponents to a .505 OPS.

Veteran CC Sabthia goes for NY. While he's dropped B2B starts, the White Sox have always been a kind opponent to him. The hefty lefty is 19-7 all-time vs. Chicago w/ a 3.67 ERA. Earlier this year (back in April), he tossed five shutout innings of one-hit ball against them. It's not like the White Sox are a strong offensive ballclub either. They are bottom 10 in both runs scored and OPS. The Under is 10-4 the L14 times Sabathia has started on the road against a team w/ a losing record and 6-1 the last seven times these teams have played. 8* Under Yankees/White Sox

8* Under Blue Jays/Astros (8:10 ET): Toronto is a terrible team offensively as they are 27th in runs scored and have the lowest team batting average (.222) in all of baseball. (So much for that Vlad Guerrero Jr call-up!). Now you wouldn't have known that by watching yday's game where they recorded season-highs in both runs (12) and hits (17). But that was against Baltimore's beleaguered staff, which ranks among the very worst in baseball. Going from facing that to Houston, specifically tonight's starter Gerrit Cole, is a huge step up in class and should lead to this Blue Jays' lineup reverting back to "usual" form. 

The Astros have their own set of issues right now, namely filling out a lineup card. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Aldemys Diaz, George Springer and Max Stassi will be among those NOT taking the field Friday and that's obviously a massive loss in production. Despite all the injuries, Houston has found a way to remain near the top of most important offensive categories, however, I don't think that can last. Four of the last five games have seen them get held to four runs or less. Their last game (played Wednesday) went 14 innings and saw them held to only three runs. The Under is 33-16-2 in the Astros' last 51 series openers. 

If there is one thing Houston can rely on here though, it's Cole, who is averaging a career best 13.8 K's per nine innings this year. He also has a 2.37 ERA and 0.737 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in Astros' victories. Given the money line for this matchup, another win is likely in order and it's very likely that we'd avoid playing the bottom of the ninth, which is always nice when playing the Under. Toronto's Anibal Sanchez is obviously not in the same class as Cole, but the Under has cashed the last two times he's started (mainly due to poor run support). Sanchez is 3-1 w/ a 3.66 ERA previously vs. Houston. 8* Under Blue Jays/Astros

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET):  The Braves are rolling right now as they've won seven in a row heading into this series w/ Philadelphia. As a result of that win streak, they've surpassed the Phillies in the NL East and now lead the division by 1.5 games. But don't think Atlanta will be lacking for any motivation this weekend. They have revenge on their minds after being swept in Philly back in late March (1st series of the season). Yes, the two teams Atlanta just swept (Miami, Pittsburgh) are two of the NL's worst. But I look for them to step up big on Friday and deliver a resounding win.

During the seven-game win streak, the Braves offense has scored a total of 49 runs or an average of 7.0 per game. They absolutely hammered Pirates pitching to the tune of 34 runs in four games. So that's what Phillies starter Nick Pivetta is up against here. While Pivetta has been pretty sharp lately (1.80 ERA in three starts since being recalled from Triple-A), let's not forget the reason he'd been sent down to Lehigh Valley. In his first four starts of the year, Pivetta posted an 8.35 ERA. Overall, the Phillies have dropped 8 of 13 and were shutout Wednesday (2-0) by Arizona.

Atlanta's rotation has been a real pleasant surprise in 2019 and Max Fried has been one of the main contributors to that. After struggling a bit in B2B starts, Fried bounced back by allowing only three runs over six innings against Miami on Sunday. The Phillies did not face him in the first series, so there's the unfamiliarity factor. Fried has pitched very well at home this year w/ a 2.75 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in six starts. I mentioned earlier that the Phils were shutout in their last game. That bodes well for Fried and the Braves as the last time Philly was blanked in a series finale (8-0 by the Dodgers on June 1st), they lost the opener of the next series (8-2) to San Diego. 10* Atlanta

8* Under Angels/Rays (7:10 ET): The Angels beat the Rays yday, 5-3, in a surprise result. There was a power outage that delayed the game and it also seemed to 'zap' the two offenses, which combined for only five runs over the final eight innings. The key to the whole game was the Angels scoring three runs in the top of the first. Also, Shohei Ohtani hit for the cycle, becoming the first Japanese born player to do so. It's going to be a lot tougher for the Ohtani and the rest of the Angels' hitters today though as they go up against last year's AL Cy Young winner, Blake Snell. 

Snell has a pretty misleading team start record (6-7) as he's pitched well, particularly here at Tropicana Field. He's allowed no more than 2 ER in 11 of his 13 starts this year! At home, he has a 2.91 ERA and 0.971 WHIP. Last time out, in Boston, he held the Red Sox to one run in six innings of work. In playing the Under here, we have to mention that the Rays have given up the fewest number of runs in all of baseball. They are allowing just 3.3 per game. Their last six games have all stayed Under as have 10 of the last 11. 

The Angels will have Andrew Heaney on the mound tonight and while he's given up six home runs in three starts, he's managed to mitigate the damage and still pitch well. He has a 0.960 WHIP as he's allowed just seven hits otherwise (besides the home runs) in 16 2/3 IP. He also has 28 strikeouts against only three walks. Lots of trends point towards an Under here, most notably the Angels being 23-5-1 Under their L29 Friday games. While that perhaps could be chalked up to a "random occurrence," the fact that the Angels are 39-17-4 Under their L60 games vs. a LH starter probably isn't. Incredibly though, the Rays have that very same record their L60 games vs. lefty starters. (Both Friday starters are southpaws). TB is also 10-0-2 Under the L12 times Snell has started Game 2 of a series. 8* Under Angels/Rays

10* Golden State (9:05 ET): I just can't see the Warriors losing this game. Not after what happened in Game 5. I'm not referring to the Kevin Durant injury, of course, though that should not be minimized. Rather, I'm talking about how Golden State saved its season AFTER the Durant injury, "stealing" the game by a score of 106-105. Another reason I can't see the Dubs losing here is the fact Toronto won the first two games played here in Oakland. Them going 3-0 SU at Oracle Arena just seems far-fetched. I'll gladly lay the short number here as I'm concerned about the Raptors' psyche. 

The loss of Durant is obviously significant. The Warriors lost three of the first four Finals games without him (though they were previously 5-0 w/o him since the initial injury). But the Game 5 comeback did not require his presence. It was the "Splash Brothers" (Curry & Thompson) combining to hit three consecutive three-pointers (after being down six) late in the fourth quarter. I've said previously that if there's one team that could overcome an injury to a player the caliber of Durant, it would be the talent-rich Warriors. They still have four former All-Stars on this roster, one of them a former league MVP himself (Curry).

Durant did have 11 pts in 12 mins in Game 5, but after the injury took place, Golden State still expanded its lead to as many as 14 points. (By the way, it should also be pointed out that Kevon Looney reaggravated his injury & is also done for the series). Now they are back at home where they don't lose often - let alone three times in a row. That's the key for me as this one seems destined to go to a Game 7. Toronto was minutes away from its first ever NBA Title and now has to go to a hostile environment instead. I admit that this is far more of a "gut" play than a technical one, something I don't do often. But it's the right call here. 10* Golden State

10* Under Tigers/Royals (8:05 ET): These teams have split a couple 3-2 decisions w/ tonight being the rubber match. In a "special twist," the game takes place in Omaha as a lead-in to the 2019 College World Series. That's ironic, because it seems like most college teams could outscore these two. The Tigers probably should have won both games in KC, but they blew a 2-0 lead on Tuesday in comical fashion. Despite that, I believe KC is the better team here as the Tigers have a horrible YTD run differential (-109) that is 2nd worst in all of baseball. The only thing keeping them ahead of the Royals is a 6-2 head to head record. Also, KC will have to face one of Detroit's better pitchers Thursday in Matthew Boyd. I think we're in store for another low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

Detroit is the lowest scoring team in baseball at only 3.5 runs per game. Keep in mind that at one point Miami was on pace for the fewest runs scored since the 'dead ball' era and even they've passed the Tigers. In the past seven games, Detroit has been held to three or fewer runs six times. But if they are to have a chance of winning this series, it will be because of today's starter Boyd, who has a 3.08 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 14 starts. He faced Kansas City last month and held them to just two runs and five hits in seven innings. Boyd has fond memories of Omaha as the last time he pitched here, he tossed a complete game, four-hit shutout. 

The Royals counter w/ veteran Homer Bailey, who happened to pitch well in his previous start vs. the Tigers this year. He held them to two runs in six innings and now has a 3.05 ERA in three career meetings. While Detroit is last in MLB in runs scored, KC is right down there with them. They've been held to seven runs total the L4 games and have scored no more than three in 8 of their last 10. The Under is now 5-1 the L6 meetings between these teams. 10* Under Tigers/Royals

8* Under Cardinals/Mets (7:10 ET): Coming into the year, I didn't think it would be possible for the Mets' Jacob deGrom to have a worse team start record than he did last season, but here we are through 13 starts and it's 4-9. It's not like deGrom has pitched poorly; though he hasn't been nearly as dominant as he was in 2018's Cy Young campaign. But seven of his last eight starts have seen him allow two runs or less. I'm counting on another quality effort from him today as he faces the Cardinals. But I wouldn't go counting on the Mets, so I'm on the Under here. 

St. Louis hasn't exactly been swinging the bats well as they arrive in Queens. They've scored only 2.9 runs per game over the last seven days, batting a collective .210. They were embarrassingly shut out last night, 9-0 by Miami, which was the sixth time in the last nine games they scored three runs or fewer. So deGrom is hardly someone they want to be seeing right now. His last time out deGrom struck out 10 and allowed only two runs over six innings. But the Mets still lost 5-1 to the Rockies. 

The Cards go w/ Jack Flaherty, who has not factored in the decision in any of his last four starts. But he does have a 3.48 ERA during that stretch. While Flaherty hasn't pitched great on the road this year, I think he'll "show up" in this spot after one of his shorter stints of the season. He lasted only 3 2/3 innings in Chicago last Saturday before giving up four runs. But prior to that, he'd allowed 3 ER or less in seven consecutive outings. Look for a good old fashioned pitchers duel in this one. 8* Under Cardinals/Mets

10* Under Blues/Bruins (8:05 ET): St. Louis may very well end up rueing Game 6 forever as they blew a golden opportunity to win the franchise's first Stanley Cup. They the Bruins at home, but a third period onslaught resulted in a 5-1 victory for the visitors. Ultimately, that will mean nothing if the Blues are able to win Game 7. But Game 7 is in Boston, which means (theoretically) things will be tougher. Then again, the Blues are 9-3 on the road this postseason (as opposed to 6-7 SU at home!). The road team has won four of the six games in this series so far. The Bruins are just 7-5 SU at home in the playoffs, though they did win a Game 7 here (back in Rd 1 vs. Toronto). 

I had this as a pretty even series coming in, thus I've almost exclusively been playing the total on a game by game basis. Oddsmakers have been "tipping their hand some" w/ the juice and obviously the number itself. Four of the six games have gone Over, but I say that's a bit misleading even as someone who had the Over in Game 6. That was a 1-0 game entering the third period before a wild barrage of scoring took place. There were four goals scored over an eight minute span, the final one coming on an empty net. That was the third time in the series an empty net goal sent the game Over. My condolences to anyone who had the Over in those spots (I did in Game 1).

Hopefully, we won't be in a situation here where either goalie has to be pulled late. Even so, I see Game 7 being a very low-scoring battle where the total won't be in question late. I see this one being shades of Game 5 here in Boston, which was a 2-1 final. Both goaltenders have been strong throughout the playoffs. Including the regular season, Jordan Binnington is 13-2 SU off a loss w/ a 1.83 GAA and .934 save percentage. When facing elimination this postseason, Tuukka Rask is 3-0 w/ a 1.33 GAA and .953 save percentage. Tension will be high here and I expect the opposite of a wide open game. 10* Under Blues/Bruins

8* Under Rangers/Red Sox (4:05 ET): Back to this matchup where we successfully cashed the Under on Monday. That Under cashed despite the game going 11 innings! Texas won 4-3 (beating Chris Sale) and even more surprising was them coming back and winning against yday, 9-5. After seemingly turning things around in May, the Red Sox have started to struggle again, dropping five of their last six games overall.  They've been held to three runs or fewer four times during that stretch and never scored more than five in any game. Take the Under. 

It may not be Sale, but Rick Porcello will have to do today for Boston. Porcello does have a decent 3.86 ERA in seven previous Fenway starts this year. He allowed four runs in six innings his last time out as the Red Sox lost 5-1 to Tampa Bay. He's facing a strong offense this afternoon (Rangers average 5.7 runs per game), but the Red Sox are 4-0 in Porcello's last four starts vs. Texas. The Under is also 16-5 in Boston's last 21 games vs. a team that has a winning record.

Lance Lynn gets the baseball Weds afternoon for the Rangers and he has some strong career numbers against the Red Sox. In six previous appearances, his ERA is 1.91. Lynn is currently working on a streak of six straight quality starts, five of which have stayed Under the total (including each of the last four). The Under is actually 6-1 following the L7 times Texas has scored 5+ runs in a game. It's 8-2 following the L10 times they've given up 5+ runs in the last game. I think this is set to be a lot more like Monday's game. The Rangers were a little lucky to score nine runs yesterday as they had just nine hits, one of which was an inside the park HR. 8* Under Rangers/Red Sox

8* Chi Cubs (3:10 ET): The Cubs' sweep of the Cardinals this past weekend is rapidly becoming a distant memory as they are the ones now facing the same fate here in Colorado. They lost 6-5 on Monday, then 10-3 last night. That latter result was beneficial to me as I had the Over. The Rockies really poured it on late, most notably in a five-run sixth. But let's not forget what I talked about yday: the Cubs happen to be the NL's second highest scoring road team (now at 5.6 runs per game). I have them avoiding the sweep today behind Cole Hamels. 

When these teams met last week at Wrigley Field in Chicago, the Rockies were fortunate enough to avoid Hamels. He's pitched very well of late, including 15 straight innings w/o allowing a single earned run (allowed one unearned). Both starts that make up that stretch came against St. Louis. The last one saw him go eight innings and not only did he not give up any runs, he allowed only three hits and struck out 10. Hamels has a 3.79 ERA in six previous starts here at Coors Field, so he won't be intimidated by the thin air. 

The Rockies obviously score a lot of runs at home (6.4 rpg), but they give up their fair share (6.1) as well. Anthony Senzatela is looking to make it four consecutive quality starts, but I do NOT see that happening here. He has a 5.21 ERA at Coors in five starts this year. Note the price range for this matchup as Colorado is 0-3 in 2019 when priced between +125 and +175 at home. The Cubs are a perfect 6-0 the L6 times Hamels has been coming off a quality start in his last outing. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Over Reds/Indians (1:05 ET): Cincinnati is looking to halt a couple of streaks here. The one more important to them is a 5-15 slide against in-state "rival" Cleveland. More important to us is an eight-game Under streak. While those two streaks may not go "hand in hand," the team's Under streak definitely is tied to the fact they've lost six of those last eight games. During that time, they've scored only 16 runs total, never more than four in any game. They've been held to two runs or fewer in six of those eight games, including yday's 2-1 loss which went 10 innings. 

So we very well may need Cleveland's offense to do the "heavy lifting" Wednesday afternoon. Fortunately, things set up well for them to do just that. Yes, they were held to only two runs on Tuesday. But in the six games prior, the Tribe had scored at least five on five different occasions. Francisco Lindor has reached base safely in all 18 career games vs. the Reds. Carlos Santana brings a seven-game hit streak into Wednesday. While the Reds' pitching staff has allowed the fewest runs in the entire NL, today's starter (Anthony DeSclafani) is not a major reason for that.

DeSclafani looked pretty good his last time out, but that was after allowing 9 HR's in his previous five starts. He's winless since May 6th. Remember that this is an American League lineup he'll be facing. Of course, that works both ways as Cincy also gets the DH added to the lineup, which (theoretically) should help the offense. Cleveland goes w/ Zach Plesac, who has pitched well so far, but it's a limited sample size (only three starts). The Over is a perfect 4-0 the last four times DeSclafani has started against an AL Central team. 8* Over Reds/Indians

8* San Diego (9:40 ET): The Padres are far from my favorite side in MLB right now, but they always seem like a better bet when Chris Paddack takes the mound. Despite coming off B2B less than steller showings, the rookie Paddack has clearly emerged as the staff ace for San Diego w/ a 2.97 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. His TSR is 7-4, but curiously his own record is just 4-4 and he obviously deserves better. The two teams he recently faced were the Phillies and Yankees, both of whom field strong lineups. It'll be a drop in class tonight facing San Francisco, who has scored the third fewest runs in all of MLB. 

Paddack has faced the Giants once before. It was actually his big league debut, back on March 31st. He limited them to one run over five innings. Paddack's first nine starts saw him give up no more than 3 ER, but in the last two he's given up 10 total. Again, the teams Paddack hasn't been as successful against this year are all in first place. When not facing a current division leader, his team start record is 7-1. 

The Giants are in last place in the NL West and have the NL's worst run differential overall (-86). They've dropped four of five overall and not scored more than three runs in any of those games. They were shutout on Sunday and have scored just seven runs total in those L5 games. Tyler Beede on the mound doesn't seem like it'll help as he has an 8.78 ERA and 1.95 WHIP after three starts. He just gave up six runs - in five innings - last week to the Mets. The Padres haven't exactly played well recently, but they are a better team than the Giants and have a significant pitching edge today. They are also 5-2 vs. SF this season. 8* San Diego

8* Over Cubs/Rockies (8:40 ET): The Rockies won last night's game, 6-5, improving to 34-31 on the season. That result also knocked the Cubs out of first place in the NL Central, one-half game behind the Cubs. While I'm not sure how today's game is going to turn out, I am confident that it'll end up being a high-scoring affair. After all, this is Coors Field and the Rockies score 6.3 runs per game here while also giving up an average of 6.2! The Cubs happen to be the NL's second highest scoring road team as well (5.7 rpg). The Over is a perfect 5-0 in the second game of the Cubs' last five series. Take the Over here.

Jose Quintana will toe the rubber Tuesday for the Cubs and his recent resume indicates this may be a bit of a 'rocky' outing (pun intended!). Quintana already has a 5.84 ERA and 1.378 WHIP on the road and the Cubs have lost his last three starts overall w/ him posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.441 WHIP. He has a 4.32 ERA in five previous starts vs. Colorado. It should come as no shock that the Rockies are again leading the league in scoring at home as this is almost always the case, year after year. The Over is 8-3-1 in Quintana's L12 starts vs. the NL West. 

Colorado was able to rally back from an early 4-0 deficit last night. They hope to avoid a similar early hole here as they send out Peter Lambert, whose big league debut last week probably couldn't have gone any better ... and it was against the Cubs. Lambert allowed just the one run (on four hits) in 7 IP as the Rockies prevailed 3-1 at Wrigley Field. But pitching here at Coors is a different animal. The Cubs are also a much stronger team offensively on the road than at home. This should be a slightly higher scoring game than yday and don't be scared off by the high total. 8* Over Cubs/Rockies

10* Over Pirates/Braves (7:20 ET): The Pirates' ship is sinking fast and it's not like I didn't see this coming. For most of the year, they've had a poor run differential and it's recently only gotten worse. A lot worse, in fact. Last night's 13-7 loss here in Atlanta means the Bucs have now been outscored by 84 runs this season. That's rapidly closing in on the Giants for the worst run diff in the entire National League & it's 4th worst in all of MLB. It's actually a worse run differential than 20-45 Kansas City (-72) & 23-41 Miami (-68). Bottom line is you should expect Pittsburgh to finish last in the NL Central by season's end. 

Why is any of this significant? Well, the Pirates' overall record is still 30-35, which isn't horrible, but it's also obviously very misleading given the info above. The gap in the team's actual and expected win total (+6) is the largest in all of MLB. So the bottom line is while the Pirates' record is subpar, it should actually be much worse. If you're a regular follower of mine, then you're probably sick of hearing about this. But I just feel it's very important to illustrate how important the run differential metric truly is. 

The Pirates have been giving up runs in bunches recently, including 13 yday. That should continue today w/ Chris Archer on the hill. Archer has an 0-3 TSR on the road this year w/ a 7.98 ERA and 1.568 WHIP. His last time out, which resulted in a 6-1 win over these same Braves, was the 1st time since April 21st that Archer didn't allow at least four runs. The Pirates' bullpen (5.56 ERA) is pretty bad too. The only thing keeping me from a play on Atlanta here is Mike Foltynewicz simply hasn't been the same pitcher he was last season. The team is 1-7 in his 8 starts, largely due to a 5.89 ERA. He has a 7.18 ERA at home. He opposed Archer his last time out and gave up multiple HR's for a second straight start. The Over is 9-1-1 in the Braves' last 11 home games vs. a team w/ a losing record (includes last night). 10* Over Pirates/Braves

8* LA Dodgers (10:07 ET): The Dodgers have clearly emerged as the team to beat in the National League as their .682 win percentage is baseball's best. A 1-0 shutout of the Giants on Sunday made it 13 wins in the last 16 games. They have to be feeling pretty good about themselves today as they send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound in search of his 10th win. So do I. Ryu has been absolutely lights out this season in compiling a 9-1 record (13 starts) w/ a 1.35 ERA and 0.775 WHIP. His last start, which saw him toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. Arizona, was the 5th time in his L6 starts that Ryu did not give up any runs. 

In fact, Ryu has yet to allow more than two runs in any start all season! Since May 1st, he's taken the mound seven times and given up a grand total of three runs in 52 2/3 IP. That's absolutely preposterous. That's a 0.51 ERA and 0.646 WHIP, for those keeping score at home. The Dodgers have won four of those last seven starts in shutout fashion, including the last two. By the way, Ryu is 2-0 in three career starts vs. the Angels w/ a 0.83 ERA. He's even held Mike Trout hitless in seven at-bats.

The Angels got beat up Sunday, losing 9-3 to Seattle. Consider the weekend a missed opportunity as the Mariners came in having not won a series of any kind since mid-May and none on the road since April. But they took two of three from the Angels, who must now step up in class to face the high-powered Dodgers. Griffin Canning has pitched well for the AL's LA team, but he won't be enough to beat the cross-town rivals as the Angels have dropped six of their last seven series openers. 8* LA Dodgers 

8* Under Rangers/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Chris Sale and Boston had a really rough start to the season, but individually and collectively, they seem to have turned things around. While still 2-7 in 13 trips to the mound, Sale has come a long way from the end of April when the Red Sox were 0 for 6 in his starts. His TSR is now 4-9 and the Red Sox have won 23 of 38 overall. That said, they did just drop three of four here at home to Tampa Bay over the weekend. But Monday sets up a lot more favorably for them as they face a Rangers team they went 6-1 against last season.

The price (money line) is high here for a reason and a lot of it has to do w/ the fact Sale is starting to look like his old dominant self again. Last time out, he went the distance, allowing only three hits w/ 10 strikeouts in an 8-0 win over Kansas City. Beating the Royals is obviously not something worth crowing about at this point, but it was the seventh time in the last nine starts that Sale struck out 10 or more batters. He has a 0.996 WHIP for the year, which is very good, and that number is down to 0.762 over his last three starts. The Under has cashed in 7 of Sale's last 8 starts, including the L4.

Not to be outdone, Mike Minor threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings for the Rangers his last time out. Minor has pitched well this season, posting a 2.54 ERA in 13 starts. Like Sale, his last three have all stayed Under the total. So have six of his last seven. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact Minor has not given up more than 3 ER in any of his last eight starts. The Under had been 8-2 in Texas' L10 games before yday's 9-8 loss to the A's. Minor is facing a Red Sox lineup that was held to two runs or less in three of the four games vs. Tampa Bay over the weekend. 8* Under Rangers/Red Sox

10* Over Bruins/Blues (8:05 ET): St. Louis returns home w/ a chance to win their first ever Stanley Cup. Playing Game 6 on home ice bodes well as they've closed out each of their previous three series here at the Enterprise Center. But Boston won't go down easy and it's the O/U line that's caught my eye here. The oddsmakers moving the number to 5.0 is significant because four of the five previous games in the series have seen at least five total goals scored. We've cashed the Under twice (Games 2, 5) thanks to 5.5 goal totals. The only other time a game in the series opened w/ a 5.0 goal total was Game 3 and that went way Over (and we had the Over). Play the Over here. 

That Game 3 happened to be the highest scoring game in the series (so far). The Over cashed midway in the second period and when it was all said and done, nine total goals were scored (7-2 Bruins' win). That was also the last time the Bruins won a game. They've since lost 4-2 and 2-1. They badly outshot the Blues (39-21) in Game 5, but it didn't matter. There was a controversial no-call in the third period and St. Louis scored right after to take a commanding 2-0 lead. 

Though they've closed out all three previous series here on home ice, the Blues are just 6-6 SU at the Enterprise Center this postseason. There have been seven playoff games that St. Louis has allowed four or more goals. Four of them have come at home. The Over is 8-3 in the L11 meetings here in St. Louis. Both goaltenders have seen their respective save percentages drop in this series. With every game in the series prior to the last one seeing at least five total goals scored, I see this one following suit. 10* Over Bruins/Blues

6* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): Might as well call for the Brewers to finish off the sweep here as the Pirates' ship is sinking fast. I had the Over in Friday's opener, which Milwaukee won (10-4), then yday's free play on the Brew Crew was another winner. Just to rehash for anyone "late to the party," the reason I've targeted the Bucs as a clear fade is their very poor YTD run differential (now -75), which to me is a clear indication that this NOT a .500-level team. Expect them to finish last in the NL Central (where I predicted them to be at the start of the season). 

They might have a 30-33 overall record, but Pittsburgh has now been outscored by 75 runs this year. That's the second worst differential in the entire National League (easily the worst in the division) and closing in on the Giants for the worst. That run differential is more indicative of a 24-win team. The Pirates' gap between actual & expected wins (+6) is the largest in all of baseball and a clear indication that they've actually overachieved to this point in the season. We've already seen the regression set in w/ the Bucs dropping 13 of their last 19 games. 

Milwaukee is heading in the other direction. They've won three straight and are 37-28 overall. They send Chase Anderson to the bump today and he held Pittsburgh to two runs the last time he faced them. But the real key here is how the Brewers' offense has feasted on Pirates' pitching, scoring 46 runs against them this season in just six games. In three of the five wins, they've scored 10 or more runs.  Injuries have decimated the Pittsburgh rotation, leading to arms such as Steven Brault being used on a regular basis. Brault has a 4.76 ERA and 1.706 WHIP in four starts. He needed 93 pitches to get through four innings his last time out, an ominous sign. 6* Milwaukee

8* Under Braves/Marlins (1:10 ET): The Under was a winner for us yday in this matchup, so why not come right back w/ it again today? After all, Miami remains the lowest scoring team in the National League and has done next to nothing at the plate in this series. Seriously. They've scored just one run in two games and it came Friday, in the ninth inning, on an infield single. Yesterday's was as low-scoring as it gets w/ the Braves winning 1-0 in a game that featured just seven combined hits. Atlanta has really had Miami's number this year as they're 7-1 against them, holding them to three runs or fewer in all but one game! Take the Under again. 

Miami has collected just nine hits the last two days and doesn't figure to be any better offensively on Sunday. They'll face Max Fried, who is yet another of Atlanta's unheralded revelations in its starting rotation. Truthfully, Fried hasn't pitched all that well of late. But he's also yet to have a change to face this weak Marlins lineup in 2019. Fried still has a 7-3 record and 3.78 ERA, but will need to pitch well here as the team's acquisition of Dallas Keuchel puts Fried's spot in the rotation in question. 

What will keep the Marlins in this game is having Pablo Lopez on the mound. Lopez threw six shutout innings at Milwaukee his last time out and he's got a 1.84 ERA/0.784 WHIP in five home starts this season (Under is 4-1). Opponents are batting just .139 against Lopez's curveball. While he has already faced Atlanta several times and yet to come away w/ a victory, the Braves haven't done much at the plate the L2 days either. The last time he faced them, he did hold them scoreless for six innings, allowing just three hits. The Under is now 10-3 the L13 head to head meetings between these teams. 8* Under Braves/Marlins

8* Over Twins/Tigers (1:10 ET): Saturday was the biggest crowd at Comerica Park since Opening Day and the home team rewarded its fans w/ a 9-3 win over the first place Twins. To say the Tigers hadn't been good at home recently would be a mild understatement. They were just 1-13 their previous 14 games here and an offense that is dead last in runs scored (in all of MLB) is the primary culprit. But a matchup w/ the top scoring team in all of MLB (Minnesota) figured to lead to more scoring than usual this weekend in the Motor City. Take the Over here. 

The Twins came into yday averaging a whopping 6.6 runs per game on the road. That's probably unsustainable, but so too is the run that starter Jake Odorizzi is currently on. Incredibly, Odorizzi has not given up a single run in six of his last seven starts, including each of the last three. Odorizzi, who has a 9-0 TSR his L9 starts, has a 0.65 ERA/0.816 WHIP his L7 starts and a 0.00 ERA/0.674 WHIP his L3. Having one-hit the Tigers back on May 10th, you'd figure Odorizzi (AL ERA leader) will pitch well today. However, I have to point out that the Over is 5-1 his L6 road starts. 

Detroit will be sending Ryan Carpenter to the mound Sunday. Like Odorizzi, he's pitched pretty well of late. Unlike Odorizzi, he doesn't have a large body of work to "lean on" and his overall numbers are still poor, especially at home. He has an 8.44 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in three previous starts here. As I said earlier, the Twins offense is leading MLB in runs scored. Following a rare off-day at the plate, you have to figure they're going to bounce back today. They are 10-4-2 Over their L16 games vs. left-handed starters and Carpenter is a southpaw. They'd scored at least five runs in six of their previous seven games before ydya. 8* Over Twins/Tigers

10* Washington (10:10 ET): As I continually harp on, a team's won-loss record can be quite misleading sometimes. Take these teams, for example. Yes, San Diego has won the first two games (both by final scores of 5-4) and has the better record. They are now 33-31 on the season, but have been outscored by 25 runs. Washington, despite being seven games below .500 (28-35), actually has a slightly better YTD run differential (at -16). The key to the Padres season, as we've seen the past two days, has been an ability to win one-run games. Their 16-6 record in such contests is baseball's best.

Inevitably, that WL record in one-run games should begin regressing to the mean. Most teams finish w/ a record near .500 in one-run games over the course of a full season. A record like the Padres have should be considered extremely fortunate. Consider only one other team (Giants) has more than 12 one-run victories this season. Tonight is when the tide of this series should officially turn as the Nats send Max Scherzer to the mound.  Despite still having a stunning 3-10 team start record this season, Scherzer has been pretty ridiculous of late.

Scherzer's L3 starts have have seen him allow only two runs and 14 hits in 20 IP (0.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) w/ a 30-4 KW ratio. Now San Diego starter Eric Lauer has been almost as good. He's got a 1.47 ERA and 0.709 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts, but the thing is that he's made it a full six innings only twice during that span. Scherzer has gone at least six innings eight straight times. He also has a 2.37 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. San Diego. The Padres have had to come from behind to win each of the last two days. Not today. 10* Washington

8* Under Braves/Marlins (4:10 ET): Atlanta was an easy winner for me Friday night as they came to Miami and took the series opener, 7-1. They jumped all over Marlins' starter Jose Urena, scoring all seven of their runs (six off Urena) in the first five innings. Miami's lone run (had only five hits) came in the bottom of the ninth. As discussed at length in yday's analysis, the Marlins are the lowest scoring team in the National League. They've played better of late, but that doesn't change the fact that they are still averaging only 3.1 runs per game at home this season. Saturday afternoon, I'll go w/ the Under.

The Braves had their way w/ Urena on Friday, as they often do. (Urena came into the game w/ a 2-7 lifetime record vs. Atlanta and a 6.07 ERA). I suspect it'll be a greater challenge today, facing Trevor Richards. This plays a major role in the shift from playing Atlanta on the money line to the Under. In his L3 starts, Richards has a 1.02 ERA and 0.849 WHIP. He's allowed only two runs in 17 2/3 IP during that time. The last two starts have seen him surrender a total of only three hits. Early in May saw Richards toss 4 1/3 scoreless innings against these Braves. 

So what I'm saying is that we should expect a much better start here from Richards than what we saw yday from Urena. We should also get a good start from Julio Teheran, who toes the rubber today for the visitors. Teheran comes in w/ a 1.15 ERA his L3 starts and going back to early May, he's allowed 1 ER or less six straight outings. It was five shutout innings his last time out vs. a Detroit team whose offensive numbers are pretty comparable to those of Miami. Teheran threw six shutout innings against the Marlins in his one previous start against them this season. 8* Under Braves/Marlins

8* Over White Sox/Royals (2:15 ET): Perhaps it'll come off as a 'hot take' but I consider the Royals to be a lot closer to the White Sox than the standings say they are. They've definitely played better than the team right in front of them in the American League Central, Detroit, who has been outscored by a 102 run margin this season (2nd worst in all of MLB). KC has a -67 run differential. The White Sox are -51. Those respective run differentials say that the Royals have played more to the level of a 25-win team (actual record 20-43). The White Sox run differential is indicative of a 26-win team (actual record 29-33). 

One positive on this White Sox team has been the pitching of Lucas Giolito.  He has a 2.54 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 11 starts w/ the team going 9-2. He's a perfect 5 for 5 on the road w/ a 1.80 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. His last three starts overall, all wins, have seen him produce a 1.11 ERA and 0.575 WHIP. I'm not convinced he can keep it up though. This will be the 4th time the Royals have faced him this season. Giolito's last six starts have all stayed Under. That's a streak I see ending this afternoon. 

Kansas City goes w/ Brad Keller here. He has a pretty high WHIP for the year (1.449) as he's given up 19 hits his L2 starts (13 IP). He just faced off w/ Giolito on 5.28 and allowed 10 hits in 6 IP.  That same game also saw Giolito allow three runs, his most in any of those last six starts. These teams went Over the total last night w/ the Royals winning 6-4 (told you they were better!). Prior to that though, KC had lost six in a row and given up at least five runs in every game. The Over is 7-2-1 the L10 times Giolito has started and the opponent scored 5+ runs in its previous game. The Over is also now 6-1-1 in the Royals last eight home games. 8* Over White Sox/Royals

8* Under Mariners/Angels (10:07 ET): In addition to liking the Angels, I also like the Under here. The regression of Seattle's offense is something I talked about in the other writeup. Same w/ the prowess of Angels starter Andrew Heaney. Marco Gonzales did get obliterated by the Angels last week, giving up 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings, but won't be that bad this time around. His career numbers vs. the Angels aren't that bad. Problem is, like I said in the other writeup, the Mariners offense has scored no more than four runs for him in each of his last seven starts, all of which have been team losses. With the Angels (hopefully) winning, we will likely avoid playing the bottom of the ninth here and that's always nice when having the Under. 8* Under Mariners/Angels

8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): I don't need much reason to fade Seattle as I feel as I was way ahead of the curve on this one. The Mariners started the year by winning 13 of their first 15 games, but I implored anyone who would listen (or read) to not buy in as this is a team I'd earmarked for some serious regression in 2019. It's not like the front office didn't make it clear in the offseason that they weren't trying to be a contender this year. Plus, last year's 89-win team was a total mirage as it was actually outscored by 34 runs. They were due to regress this year and regress they have, winning only 13 of its last 51 games after winning 13 of the first 15! They are buried in last in the AL West, 5.5 games back of this weekend's opponent, Los Angeles.

These division rivals just met last weekend, up in Seattle, and the Angels took two of three. Starting for one of those two victories was Andrew Heaney, who has brought some much needed stability to this Halos' starting rotation. In two starts, he's allowed just five runs and that actually undersells his performance as he's allowed only seven hits and has 18 K's in 11 IP. He has a 0.727 WHIP. The Mariners are just 5-14 in games against left-handed starters this year and - just as I said it would two months ago - their offense has really begun to slow down. They are batting a collective .214 the L7 games. 

The Angels lost yday, 7-4 to Oakland, one night removed from a 10-9 win where they rallied back from an early six-run deficit. But this is a worse spot for Seattle, who had to go 14 innings Thursday afternoon and lost 8-7 to Houston in a game that lasted 5+ hours. Though Friday's starter Marco Gonzales is 4-1 lifetime vs. the Angels (11 starts), including a 3.10 ERA in five starts here in LA, he was hammered for 10 runs by them last weekend. The team has lost seven straight times w/ him on the mound and scored no more than four runs in any of those games. 8* LA Angels

10* Golden State (9:05 ET): While it's the Warriors' fifth straight year in the Finals, this particular edition appears to be in no way as dominant as the previous four (three of which won at all). After taking a 123-109 loss in Game 3 (at home!), the Dubs have now trailed by double digits in each of their last six games. They've actually won four of those, but no Kevin Durant and no Klay Thompson proved too big of an obstacle to overcome Wednesday night. Thankfully, Thompson is going to be back for Game 4. Off a loss, I'm laying the short number w/ Golden State at home.

Few gave them a chance of winning this series, but the Raptors are definitely making everyone sit up and take notice. While it hasn't been quite the same stifling defense that we saw in the first three rounds (held Orlando, Philadelphia and Milwaukee under 100 PPG), Toronto has held Golden State to exactly 109 pts in all three games, which is 8.4 PPG under its season average. Offensively, the Raptors have hit on all cylinders in two of three games (should be easy to figure out which two!). Game 3 saw them shoot 52.4% overall, their highest FG% in any game this postseason. All five starters scored at least 17 points, including Danny Green going 6 of 10 from three-point range. I just can't envision a similar offensive showing from the Raptors here.

Meanwhile, Golden State should certainly improve offensively w/ Thompson back in the fold. They shot just 39.6% from the floor in Game 3, their LOWEST field goal percentage in any game this postseason. Without Durant, the Dubs had managed just fine, losing only one time (Game 1 in Toronto). Steph Curry has shown he's more than capable of picking up the scoring slack, which should be assumed considering he's a former league MVP himself. Curry just went for 47 points in Game 3, his career playoff high. You have to assume Golden State will be a lot better on both ends of the floor here. They are 8-3 ATS following a SU loss going back to the regular season. Not since X-Mas have they been off a DD loss and lost again their next time out. 10* Golden State

10* Over Pirates/Brewers (8:05 ET): I haven't hesitated in going against the Pirates recently and have been mostly successful in doing so. Reason being the Bucs have a won-loss record which simply does not correspond to their (very poor) YTD run differential. Despite playing roughly .500 ball through the first 61 games (30-31), Pittsburgh has actually been outscored by 67 runs this year, which is the second worst differential in the entire National League (easily the worst in the division). That kind of run differential is more indicative of a 24-win team. The Pirates' gap between actual & expected wins (+6) is the largest in all of baseball. 

But I won't be playing against the Bucs here. Instead we look at the total as they open up a three-game set in Milwaukee. The Brewers were able to avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep at the hands of Miami, here at Miller Park no less, by winning 5-1 yesterday. But they'd given up 24 runs (includes 16-0 loss Tuesday!) the two games prior. They are heavy favorites here, but beware of the fact that starter Brandon Woodruff just gave up six runs in his last start, which came against these same Pirates. That was a season-high as were the 10 hits he allowed (in just 4 IP). Woodruff now has an 8.31 ERA in four career appearances vs. Pittsburgh. 

The Pirates have now collected at least eight hits in 13 consecutive ballgames. So offense hasn't been a problem for them. But the starting rotation is in tatters right now, which is why we have the likes of Rookie Davis starting tonight. Ironically, this is Rookie's third season in the bigs. It'll be his first start this year, but fifth overall appearance. He went 1-3 w/ a 5.35 ERA down in Triple-A Indianapolis.  As a starter for a bad Reds team in 2017, he went 1-3 w/ an 8.63 ERA. He has a 13.50 ERA in two previous appearances vs. Milwaukee. Remember that this is a battle of the league's top HR hitter (Christian Yelich of Milwaukee) and top run producer (Pittsburgh's Josh Bell). The Over is 25-8-1 in Pittsburgh's last 34 games, including 3-1 the last series w/ Milwaukee. The Over is 5-1 in Woodruff's last six home starts as well. 10* Over Pirates/Brewers

6* Atlanta (7:10 ET): Miami has been playing much better of late, but Atlanta was pretty clearly priced too low for this series opener, especially considering they'll have Mike Soroka on the hill. Thus far, Soroka has been pretty much lights out w/ a 1.41 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in nine starts. He'll be facing a Marlins team that has scored the fewest runs in the National League, even after winning 13 of its last 19. Yesterday saw the Fish revert back to their "usual ways" scoring only one run in a loss at Milwaukee. They average just 3.2 per game here at home. 

Back on May 4th, Soroka faced Miami and permitted only a pair of unearned runs in seven innings. He allowed just three hits as well. Every start this season has seen Soroka allow 3 ER or fewer. In fact, the three he allowed in his last start (10-5 win over Detroit) were a season-high. Prior to that, he'd never allowed more than 1 ER in any start and had only allowed two total in two starts because of unearned runs. One of the clear front-runners for NL Rookie of the Year, Soroka went 3-0 w/ a 0.79 ERA in May (five starts). He last lost a decision all the way back on April 18th, which was his season debut. 

There's a lot of buzz in the Atlanta clubhouse right now due to the impending arrival of another starter, Dallas Keuchel, who was just signed as a free agent. But it's Soroka that's key here going against this putrid Miami lineup. Also, starting here for the Marlins is Jose Urena, who has a 2-7 record and 6.07 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Atlanta. The Braves don't like Urena either as he threw at Ronald Acuna Jr last season. Urena has been better of late (5 straight quality starts), but he won't be able to outduel Soroka here. Miami 2-10 as ML home dog of +125 to +175 this year. 6* Atlanta

10* Over A's/Angels (10:05 ET): It feels like it's been awhile since we "checked in" on either of these two teams. Oakland is a club that I earmarked for some regression this season after 2018's surprising run to the postseason. Right now, they're a game below .500 as they've dropped six of seven following a season-best 10 game win streak. The Angels are right behind, two games below .500, following yday's 10-9 victory. They've very much been the definition of an average ballclub, even though they have arguably the best player in the sport (Mike Trout) on their roster. 

I'm looking for tonight's game to be a lot like yesterday's high-scoring bonanza. The series opener was a 4-2 win by the A's, but they're giving up an average of 6.3 runs per game during this 1-6 slide of theirs. Conversely, Los Angels is averaging 6.3 runs in its last seven games. That doesn't even include all the runs they produced in the last series w/ the A's, which came right before. All three of those games went Over with the Halos scoring 23 runs total. So in the last five games they've faced A's pitching, LA has scored 35 runs. Yesterday was the third time in the L8 games overall that they scored 10 or more. 

On May 7th, Oakland's Michael Fiers threw his second career no-hitter. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts, but still has a 4.78 ERA and I've got questions. The road has been unkind to Fiers this season as he's 0-2 in six starts (1-5 TSR) w/ a 7.76 ERA and 1.575 WHIP. He has a 5.25 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Angels. Opposing Fiers here will be Tyler Skaggs, who hasn't pitched well in his career vs. Oakland. We're talking a 2-7 record in 11 starts and a 5.07 ERA. The A's are a surprisingly strong team at the plate when they hit the road, averaging 5.8 runs per game. The Angels are no slouches at home either, averaging 5.3 rpg. 10* Over A's/Angels

10* Under Blues/Bruins (8:05 ET): I look to make it 4 in a row in the Stanley Cup Finals as this time it's back to the total after St. Louis came through for us so big in Game 4. Before that, it was the Under in Game 2 and the Over in Game 3, the latter being particularly easy as it cashed midway through the 2nd period and nine total goals were scored in the game. It's interesting that the only time the Under has cashed in the first four games came when four goals were scored in the first period. But then the only other goal scored was the game winner (by St. Louis) in overtime. 

Perhaps though, that was a necessary receipt for the way the Over cashed in Games 1 & 4. Both times it was a goal scored on an empty net in the final two minutes. I'm looking to go Under here as I think we can hopefully avoid either goalie getting pulled late. Also, the 1st period barrage of scoring we've seen in each of the L3 games should hopefully subside. There have been at least three total goals scored in the first 20 minutes of each of those last three games. Considering how well the two goaltenders have performed in the playoffs, that shouldn't be happening. 

The Blues definitely took advantage of Zdeno Chara's absence in Game 4, scoring twice in the third period. Chara reportedly broke his jaw and thus isn't likely to play here. Despite what happened to the Bruins w/o their captain on Monday, I think they're better suited to overcome any potential absence here. Tuukka Rask has faced a lot more shots than Jordan Binnington has in this series. While it might be hard to limit shots w/o Chara, Boston can do it. They are 12-6 Under this season off a loss by 2+ goals. 10* Under Blues/Bruins

7* NY Mets (12:10 ET): The Mets blanked the Giants last night, 7-0, and now can take the series w/ a win Thurs afternoon. Last night was somewhat of a "bittersweet" victory for the Metropolitans as - just hours after his return from the DL - Robinson Cano was lost to a hamstring injury. Still, that hardly mattered w/ Jason Vargas tossing a CG shutout (his 1st in two years). The Giants aren't a good team as they now have the worst run differential (-77) in the entire National League. I have zero hesitation fading them in this spot. The Mets are now 10-2 their L12 home games. 

Starting today for the home team will be Zack Wheeler. He has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts and while his ERA is 4.22, his WHIP is 0.821. Despite winning all three starts, a case could definitely be made that Wheeler has been somewhat unfortunate to give up 10 runs in 21 1/3 IP. After all, he's allowed only 16 hits and three walks. The home run has been a bit of an issue (five allowed), but he has 23 strikeouts as well. The Giants are NOT a strong offensive ballclub as they are 28th in runs scored, not to mention 29th in both team batting average and OPS. Wheeler has a 3.03 ERA in six previous starts vs. SF. 

The Giants will go w/ Shaun Anderson in this spot, hoping he can replicate the performance in his last start when he pitched a career-high seven innings and allowed just two runs for his first big-league win. But that was also at the expense of lowly Baltimore. Both bullpens have been overworked recently (well, not the Mets yday) and if that becomes a factor today, it's likely to be w/ the Giants, who are not getting many long efforts from their starters. Anderson didn't make it past the fifth in any of his first three starts. The Giants are 1-6 after allowing 5+ runs the previous game. 7* NY Mets

10* Under Raptors/Warriors (9:05 ET): Game 1 saw me cash my *10* Game of the Year (on Toronto), now here's my top total. Given how I played Game 2 (won w/ the Under), it should come as little shock how I'm playing this one. With an injury-riddled Golden State team facing a Toronto side that has played outstanding defense all throughout the playoffs, we should be in for a low-scoring game here in Oakland on Wednesday night. Raptors' games have been far lower-scoring in the playoffs than in the regular season, averaging just about 206 PPG. Take the Under here.

The big story heading into Game 3 is on the injury front for Golden State. It's still not known when Kevin Durant is going to return. The Warriors have done pretty well w/o their leading scorer, going 6-1 SU dating back to the close out game of the Houston series. But now they've lost Kevon Looney for the rest of the series and a hamstring is threatening to keep Klay Thompson out for Wednesday. If it doesn't keep Thompson out, it will at least limit him. It'll likely be Quinn Cook absorbing more minutes now and while he made 3 of 5 three-point attempts in Game 2, I don't see a repeat of that in Game 3. 

Toronto held its previous three opponents (Orlando, Philadelphia & Milwaukee) to 99.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting. The Bucks were the only team to score more than Golden State in the regular season and they were held to 102 pts or less in regulation the last four games of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Warriors have been held to "just" 109 pts each of the first two games. Look for Toronto to go more "box-and-one" on defense for Game 3, a zone approach that worked well near the end of Game 2. The Warriors missed their first eight shot attempts once the Raptors switched. The Under is 13-6 in Golden State's last 19 home games and 6-2 when Toronto is off an ATS loss. 10* Under Raptors/Warriors

8* Under Orioles/Rangers (8:05 ET): These two teams combined for 23 runs yday, a game Baltimore actually won (by a score of 12-11). Wins have been few and far between for the O's this season as they're tied for the worst record in the league right now (w/ KC) at 19-41 overall. They have - by far - the worst overall run differential (-120) and are tied for the most runs per game allowed (6.2). I expect the offense to be not nearly as prolific tonight in Arlington as we make a surprise move on the Under in a battle of teams accustomed to high-scoring games. 

Texas ranks near the bottom of the league in rpg allowed (27th) while also ranking near the top (2nd) in rpg scored. Despite this, they're still basically a 50/50 proposition when it comes to going Over as linesmakers have caught on and are posting high O/U lines for their games on a consistent basis. Something else worth noting here is how Baltimore games are lower scoring on the road. We've also got a much stronger starting pitching matchup (on paper) for tonight, so that lends itself to the Under as well (more on that in a moment). The Under is 4-1 the L5 times Baltimore has been off a win. Yesterday's game also matched a season-high in runs and hits for them. 

It's Mike Minor going for Texas tonight. He has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts and has a 2.74 ERA. He's allowed 2 ER or less eight times. I have confidence that Minor will pitch well here against a team that came into this series having been held to two runs or less in four of its last five games. Facing Minor will be John Means, one of Baltimore's few decent starters. Means has a 3.06 ERA and 1.106 WHIP, but a 3-6 team start record as he typically does not get much run support. Thus the Under is 7-2 when he starts. Only two of his starts (both Overs) have seen more than eight total runs scored. 8* Under Orioles/Rangers

6* NY Yankees (7:07 ET): The Yankees suffered a surprise loss last night to the Blue Jays. "Surprise" in the sense that they (NY) were heavily favored & the Jays came in riding a season-worst six-game losing streak. But that's over now as Toronto benefited from the rare "off-night" from the NY offense, though it's not like the team wearing pinstripes didn't have its fair amount of chances. They went 1 for 12 w/ RISP, leaving 11 men on base, and thus failed to score at least four runs for the first time in the L15 games. But I think they bounce back here. 

Even w/ the win yday, Toronto still has lost 10 of its last 12. Remember what I wrote in yday's analysis ... "Toronto comes into the week ranked dead last in all of baseball in team batting average (.205) at home and they're also right near the bottom in both runs scored and OPS." They were fortunate last night in that an injury-riddled Yankees lineup didn't perform up to its usual standard. The Blue Jays have still been held to two runs or fewer 23 times this season, the most for any American League club. After a win this season, Toronto has gone just 7-14. Off a loss, the Yankees are 13-7 (and 101-57 the L3 yrs). 

Making the challenge even tougher here for the Jays is the fact they have to go up against James Paxton. While recent efforts haven't gone long, Paxton still sports a 5-0 team start record in his L5 starts and hasn't given up an earned run in four of them. So, he doesn't need much run support, yet he figures to get more than Masahiro Tanaka did yday as the Yanks offense still averages over 6.0 rpg on the road. While just like yday, I like this game to go Under (see elsewhere in three-pack), the Yanks probably won't have much issue w/ Tyler Thornton (6.23 ERA, 1.577 WHIP, 0-3 at home) even though they've never faced him. This is the 1st time the Yankees have been off B2B losses since April 30th-May 1 (in Arizona). They haven't lost three straight since a five-game slide very early in the year (which included them being swept by Houston). 6* NY Yankees

8* Under Yankees/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): So as alluded to in the Yankees writeup, I also like the Under here. I cashed the Under in last night's matchup, which ended up being a surprise 4-3 win by the Blue Jays. It was the 1st time in 15 games that the NY offense failed to score at least four runs. Of course, they are banged up right now and w/o several key hitters (no Judge, Bird, Stanton or Gregorius). Something else I pointed out in yday's analysis is that - moving forward - it's going to be difficult for the Yankees to maintain their current runs per game average (6.1) on the road. I like them to win today, but it'll have to come in low-scoring fashion. 

One thing the Yankees won't have to worry about here is James Paxton, who gets the starting nod. I touched on this some in the other writeup on the game, but Paxton has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts and hasn't given up a single earned run in four of those. Last time out, it was four no-hit innings vs. San Diego. He's working on six days rest here. Those L5 starts have seen Paxton allow only four runs total (one unearned), in 26 2/3 innings. The Under is also 5-2 the L7 times the Yankees have been off a loss. 

 Paxton should have little difficulty facing a Toronto lineup that has been held to two runs or fewer an AL-high 23 times. The Blue Jays' team batting average of .208 here at Rogers Centre is the lowest by any team at home in all of baseball. Yesterday may have snapped a six-game losing skid, but the Jays are still averaging less than three full runs per game over the last week while batting a collective .211. Tyler Thornton has not pitched well at home for them either, but the Yanks lineup he'll be facing here is missing some key hitters (like I said earlier) and the Under is now 34-16-1 the L51 meetings here in Toronto. Also, the Under has cashed six straight times w/ tonight's ump (Ed Hickox) behind the plate. 8* Under Yankees/Blue Jays

7* Washington (1:05 ET): I've been incredibly disappointed by the Nationals' start to the season, but at least there are injuries to blame here. The good news is that there's still a lot of time left to rectify the situation and no one is running away w/ the NL East. The Nats are a team I earmarked for improvement in 2019, despite the defection of Bryce Harper to the division rival Phillies, as last year's team was better than the record showed. They did win yday, 9-5 over the White Sox, and should make it a sweep of this short Interleague series on Wednesday. 

The White Sox are only two games below .500, but they've been outscored by 47 runs, which tells me bad times are ahead. Regular followers of mine know that I am firmly of the belief that run differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than is a team's actual won-loss record. For the sake of reference, Washington is six games below .500 right now, but has only been outscored by 16 runs this season. That - and the homefield edge - explains why the Nats can be such prohibitive favorites in this one. The Nats have also won three straight overall and do have the "cache" as well.

There are few troubling trends for the White Sox heading into this one: (1) they are just 10-20 in day games this year (55-92 L3 seasons) and (2) they are 12-29 their L41 Interleague games. I know Dylan Covey pitched well for them his last time out, but that was at home. On the road, Covey has a 7.36 ERA and an 0-3 record. I know the Washington bullpen can be a pain, but starter Anibal Sanchez threw six shutout innings of one-hit ball in his last start and has allowed only 3 ER in his last 16 1/3 IP. 7* Washington

10* Over Dodgers/D'backs (9:40 ET): It was a rare low-scoring effort from Dodger Blue last night, but they still won (3-1), their sixth victory in a row and 10th in the last 11 games. This is pretty clearly "the team to beat" in the National League this year and tonight they have Hyun-Jin Ryu on the bump, which has them as massive ML favorites to defeat Arizona yet again. It'll be just the 2nd time this season that LA has been priced above -175 on the ML when away from home and for good reason. Ryu has a 1.48 ERA & 0.808 WHIP after 11 starts and hasn't allowed a single run in four of his last five trips to the mound. 

Yet, thanks to that Dodgers' offense, there have been more Ryu starts that have gone Over than Under. LA is the NL's top scoring team at 5.1 runs per game and they'd scored at least six for Ryu in four consecutive starts before a 2-0 win over the Mets last week. While Ryu allowed just 3 ER in 45 2/3 IP in May and did shut down Arizona back in March, his career ERA here at Chase Field remains 4.79 in seven starts. This has always been a pretty "hitter friendly" park and the home team is averaging a solid 5.3 rpg overall this season. That's tied for 2nd most in the National League. 

So w/ a matchup of the NL's two highest scoring teams, going Over only seems logical. The D'backs will go w/ Taylor Clarke here. He's making his first start at home Tuesday and is coming off a subpar performance last week against Colorado where he allowed five runs in just two innings. Granted, that was at Coors Field, but facing the Dodgers lineup isn't all that different from an outing in the high altitude. The Over is 5-1 the L6 times these NL West rivals have met & is a perfect 5-0 the L5 times tonight's umpire (Marvin Hudson) has been behind the plate. 10* Over Dodgers/D'backs

8* Boston (8:15 ET): The Red Sox really struggled out of the gate in 2019, but that may very well have been a reflection of their lax approach to Spring Training. The reigning World Champs have climbed back over .500 (30-29) as they've gone 19-12 over the L31 games. They'd actually dropped four in a row prior to Sunday night's 8-5 win in New York, their first time beating the Yankees all season. But run differential (+31) indicates that Boston is "just fine" moving forward and should be at least a Wild Card when the playoffs roll around. I like the Sox quite a bit in tonight's series opener at KC. 

The Royals probably aren't as bad as their 19-40 record, which is second worst in all of baseball, just one game ahead of Baltimore. But they simply can't seem to get out of their own way and this series looks to be a terrible matchup on paper for them. They come in on a three-game losing streak and have won only four times since mid-May. They're 1-6 the L7 games, averaging less than three runs per game. Thus, it's going to be very tough here to compete against a Boston offense that ranks 6th in runs per game and is 7th in OPS. Kansas City is 21st and 20th in those two categories. They are also a horrible 8-23 in night games.

The starting matchup would also seem to favor Boston here, even though Glenn Sparkman has the better numbers compared to Eduardo Rodriguez. But that's a real limited sample size for Sparkman (just two starts) and the last time we saw him was in the "opener" role and he gave up four runs in a single inning before getting ejected. Rodriguez is 5-1 w/ a 3.93 ERA his L9 starts (8-1 TSR) and is coming off perhaps his best outing of the year as he held Houston to 1 run in 6 IP and got the 'W' as a +155 ML dog. 8* Boston

8* Under Yankees/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): There wasn't much scoring Sunday "North of the Border" in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Nor has their been much offense "down the road" at Rogers Centre from the hometown Blue Jays. Toronto comes into the week ranked dead last in all of baseball in team batting average (.205) at home and they're also right near the bottom in both runs scored and OPS. It's not like the offense performs much better on the road either. Bottom line is that the call-up of Vlad Guerrero Jr has yet to pay the kind of dividends the front office was hoping for.

I don't look for the Jays to do much scoring tonight as they open up a three-game set w/ the Yankees. This team is in a REALLY bad way right now, having dropped six in a row as well as 10 of its last 11. In seven of those 11 defeats, they've been held to three runs or fewer. They just managed only nine in three games at Coors Field, which is typically the most "hitter-friendly" park in the sport. They've been held to two runs or less an AL-high 23 times this season. Tonight they must face old nemesis Masahiro Tanaka, who has gone 11-4 w/ a 2.69 ERA in 17 previous starts against them. Before a somewhat "rough" outing against San Diego one week ago, Tanaka had delivered four consecutive quality starts, three of them coming vs. division foes. 

Thus, Toronto could really use a good start here from Clayton Richard, who has looked decent in his only two previous starts. While each lasted just four innings, Richard has allowed only three runs total - on five hits. He'll face a depleted Yankees lineup here (no Judge, Bird, Stanton or Gregorius), one that has somehow managed to produce in spite of all the injuries. But a 6.3 rpg average on the road isn't something the Yanks will be able to maintain moving forward. This game will be lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Yankees/Blue Jays

8* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Pirates have been a target of mine for some time now as their won-loss record simply does not "match up" w/ their YTD run differential. While sporting a 28-30 record, the Bucs have actually been outscored this season by a whopping 68 runs. That's third worst in the National League and a lot closer to the likes of Miami (21 wins) and San Francisco (24) than any of the teams in their own division. Bottom line is that no team has exceeded its "expected win total" (based on run diff) more than this one as they are +6. I expect the losing to continue Monday vs. Atlanta. 

Pittsburgh just dropped three of four in their last series (w/ Milwaukee). Since I first wrote about this club's impending downfall (back on May 21st), they have gone 4-10 overall, including 2-8 here at PNC Park. It hasn't helped that they played 27 games in 27 days prior to Monday's off day. But they are now just 11-17 in home games for the year. A big issue that the Pirates are facing right now is injuries to the starting rotation. The team has had to turn to some less than stellar arms and the results are about what you'd expect. Tonight, it will be Steven Brault starting. While he does have a 3-0 TSR, that's very misleading as his ERA & WHIP are 5.54 and 1.615 respectively. 

Atlanta has generally played well of late, winning 14 of their last 21 games. A big key here is the price range as they are 15-5 the L3 seasons as a road favorite of -125 to -175, including a perfect 4-0 in 2019. They send their own southpaw - Max Fried - to the bump on Monday. Fried has a 7-3 record in 11 starts w/ a 3.28 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. So his numbers are a lot better than his counterpart's. The Braves have a winning record on the road overall this season and have also fared better in games vs. LH starters than Pittsburgh has (10-5 vs. 6-9). It really can't be understated how poorly the Pirates have played at home as they're being outscored by 1.8 rpg here. That's the worst margin in the entire Senior Circuit. 8* Atlanta

9* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): It's the first time matching up this season for these two teams and quite frankly, neither is playing well right now. However, there is a big difference between getting swept by the mighty Dodgers (what happened to Phillies) and losing two in a row at home to lowly Miami (Padres' fate). San Diego has not played well of late (2-5 L7 games overall), a point that was driven home w/ consecutive 9-3 home losses to the Marlins over the weekend. The Padres are now below .500 at Petco Park this season and I don't see that changing after Monday.

A swarm of bees delaying yday's game for about 20 minutes was the only excitement for the home team yday here at Petco. The Padres' offense seemed rather lifeless w/ two of their three runs and two of their four hits not coming until the ninth inning. It figures to be yet another tough day at the plate tonight against Phillies' starter Aaron Nola, who comes in red hot. Nola has yet to drop a decision in 2019 (6-0 in 12 starts) and has gone 4-0 w/ a 2.96 ERA his L5 outings. The team has won each of the last six times Nola has taken the mound. In five previous starts vs. SD, Nola has a 2.65 ERA and 0.912 WHIP w/ the Padres batting only .180 against him. 

The Phils were blanked 8-0 by the Dodgers yday, their 4th loss in a row overall. Yet they still lead the NL East w/ a 33-26 record. They were outscored 18-6 in the three games at LA, but this series is a drop in class from that one. San Diego, despite a winning overall record, has actually been outscored by 28 runs this season. The Bryce Harper-Manny Machado matchup will be hyped to death here, simply because of the salaries the two individuals commanded, but pay little mind to it. Harper's team is the better one. San Diego goes w/ Eric Lauer here and despite a recent string of quality efforts, he's still got a 4.45 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the year as opponents are batting .259 against him. 9* Philadelphia 

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues were absolutely humiliated at home Saturday night, losing Game 3 by a score of 7-2. Rookie phenom Jordan Binnington got pulled (for the 1st time in his career)after allowing the first 5 goals and by that point (2nd period), the game was over. It was quite the embarrassing effort from St. Louis, which was hosting its first Stanley Cup Finals game in 49 years. But the good news is that it was just "one game." The Blues have generally been outstanding off a loss this postseason (5-1 SU) and I expect them to be in Game 4 as well.

I've yet to play either side in a game, thinking this series was pretty evenly matched. The better team won in both Games 1 & 2, IMO, as each time (Bruins in Gm 1 & Blues in Gm 2) the winning side enjoyed a rather decided edge in shots on goals. St. Louis even had a 2-0 lead in Game 1 before eventually wilting and getting outshot 38-20. Despite being dominated Saturday, they are in no way that bad nor that inferior compared to Boston. They even finished w/ a slight edge in shots on goal (29-24). This is a great value here on the Blues at home. Yes, they're just 5-6 SU at home in the playoffs, which is somewhat shocking, especially considering they ended the regular season on a 14-2 SU run at the Enterprise Center. 

When off a SU loss this postseason, the Blues have not allowed more than two goals in any of the six games. So a bounce back effort from Binnington in particular, should be in order. Remember that he led the league in goals against average (1.87) in the regular season. After HC Craig Berube complaining about the officiating, I'd look for the Blues to spend less time in the penalty box here. The Bruins going 4 for 4 w/ the man advantage was absolutely huge in Game 3. That will not be happening again. The Blues are 7-3 SU the L10 times they've been off a loss by 3+ goals. That includes a win at San Jose in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, a very similar spot to this. 10* St. Louis

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): Purveyors of the famed "zig zag theory" (bet the ATS loser of the previous game) may be quick to hop on the Warriors here, but allow me to pump the brakes on that notion right off that. Isn't a big part of the zig zag theory anti-public perception (i.e. buy low on a team that just lost)? My read here is that most are going to expect Golden State to bounce back from the 118-109 loss in Game 1. But for all the same reasons I liked the Raptors in the series, I like them again here. They're again undervalued. They play great defense. Kevin Durant is still out. So lay the short number w/ the home team.

Golden State was off a long layoff going into Game 1 as they swept Portland in the Western Conference Finals. But that was a highly misleading sweep to say the least. In three of the four games, they trailed an inferior Blazers squad by double digits. Before that series, no team in NBA Playoff history had ever come back to win TWO straight when trailing by that many. The loss of Durant has become an underrated factor because the Warriors were able to sweep that last series (and because they closed out Houston w/o his services). I'd like to now reiterate something I said in my Game 1 analysis & that's the Dubs have been one of the WORST teams to bet on this season. Only the Lakers & Knicks had worse regular season ATS records.

Something else worth reiterating is that Toronto has played outstanding defense in the playoffs. They held the previous three opponents (Orlando, Philadelphia & Milwaukee) to 99.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting. At home is where the numbers get real impressive, especially if you take away the fact that Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a double overtime game (where Toronto barely trailed). Do that and the Raptors are giving up just under 96 PPG in regulation here at the Air Canada Centre. They just held the Bucks, who were the only team to average more points per game in the regular season than the Warriors, to 102 pts or less in regulation each of the last four games. Golden State was obviously held under its season average in Game 1. 10* Toronto

10* Under Warriors/Raptors (8:05 ET): I said it before Game 1 and I'll double down on it here. Toronto has played outstanding defense in the playoffs. They held the previous three opponents (Orlando, Philadelphia & Milwaukee) to 99.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting. At home is where the numbers get real impressive, especially if you take away the fact that Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a double overtime game (where Toronto barely trailed). Do that and the Raptors are giving up just under 96 PPG in regulation here at the Air Canada Centre. 

The Bucks were the only team to outscore the Warriors in the regular season. The Raptors held them to 102 points or less in regulation each of the last four games in that series. Then Golden State was obviously held under its season average in Game 1. The Warriors clearly miss Kevin Durant, although before Thursday they hadn't lost since he went down to injury. In the last eight games, the Dubs surpassed their season average (in PPG) only twice and it was barely. They shot just 43.6 % from the field in Game 1. The Under is 7-3 the L10 times GSW has played on exactly two days rest. 

Toronto shot 50% in Game 1. I think it's going to be tough for them to match that percentage again. Pascal Siakam scored a career-high 32 points on 14/17 shooting. That's DEFINITELY not happening again. The Under is a perfect 6-0 the L6 times the Raptors have played on exactly two days rest. Game 1 was just the third time in the playoffs that the Raptors shot better than 50% from the floor. I think you can tell which way I'm going here. Look for Game 2 to be lower-scoring than Game 1. Take the Under. 10* Under Warriors/Raptors

10* Under Marlins/Padres (6:10 ET): Miami is perhaps the worst offensive team we have seen since the infamous "dead ball era" of baseball. They've scored 36 fewer runs than any other National League team and many have scored upwards of 100 more runs. Now they did put 9 on the board yday in a win here over San Diego. That was w/ a five run fourth inning, but I wouldn't look for a repeat of anything of the sort on Sunday. After all, the Marlins did finish last in runs scored in both April and May. San Diego isn't exactly known for hitting the cover off the baseball either; they are bottom five in all of MLB in runs scored as well. So take the Under in this matinee. 

Trevor Richards starts today for the road team. He started the year in poor form, going 0-5 in eight starts (0-8 TSR!) w/ a 4.46 ERA. But over the last three starts, he's 2-0 w/ a 2.37 ERA and 19 strikeouts. Richards is off his best outing of the year where he allowed only one run and two hits against the Giants. He also went a season-best seven innings. That made it three quality starts in a row where Richards allowed just five runs total. Even w/ the slow start to the year, Richards has allowed 1 or 0 ER five times in 2019 and he's allowed more than 3 ER only three times.

San Diego counters w/ Matt Strahm. He too is off B2B quality efforts. In fact, Strahm has allowed 3 ER or less in NINE consecutive outings. He's allowed just eight hits total in those L2 starts and the three runs he allowed last time out were actually his most in any trip to the mound since the very 1st start of the season. Six of his last seven starts have been quality ones and the one that wasn't was a 2-0 loss to the Dodgers where he went five innings and gave up just two runs. Runs should be scarce today w/ the two good starting pitchers and two bad offenses. 10* Under Marlins/Padres

8* Over Blue Jays/Rockies (3:10 ET): The Blue Jays are clearly NOT the focus of Toronto sports fans right now. Thankfully then, you have my research to tell you how absolutely putrid the baseball team's offensive numbers are at home. The Jays are batting just .205 at Rogers Centre, which is the lowest home team batting average in all of baseball. Fortunately for them, they aren't playing at home this weekend. Rather, they are at Coors Field, which happens to be the friendliest venue in the league for opposing hitters (and the host Rockies as well). Take the Over on Sunday. 

Friday's opener was the usual high-scoring affair in Denver as the Rockies prevailed 13-6. But yday was certainly lower scoring than expected. The Rockies won again, but this time it was only 4-2. Still, Colorado is #1 in the league in scoring at home and they have the highest team batting average and OPS. That's played a major role in them now being on a seven-game win streak (all at home). They just scored 183 runs total in May. But, even though they've been slightly better of late, the problem for them has been on the other side of the ledger as they are giving up more runs per game than they score! 

Toronto has been heading the wrong way for awhile now as they've lost 23 of their last 30 games, including five straight and eight of the last nine. But you can at least look for the bats to wake up today. They face righty Antonio Senzatela, who has a 5.81 ERA and 1.65 ERA after nine starts. Predictably, those numbers get even higher at home and even more so in day games. Toronto has never faced him, but opponents have a very high batting average against Senzatela, particularly lefties. For the Blue Jays, Aaron Sanchez has done his best on a bad team, but he was 0-4 w/ a 5.28 ERA in May. Despite yday's result, the Over remains 13-5 in the Rockies' last 18 home games and 8-2-2 in Toronto's L12 games overall. 8* Over Blue Jays/Rockies

8* Over Bruins/Blues (8:05 ET): Surprise! After going w/ the Under in the first two games, it's time to play the Over in Game 3 as the Stanley Cup Finals move to the Gateway City. Much of this has to do w/ the number changing. The Over hitting in Game 1, then the Under hitting in Game 2 definitely came in non-conventional ways. Game 1 was pretty low-scoring early on (1-0 Blues after 1st period), but then things picked up a damn empty-net goal cost us the Under. Game 2 looked bleak early w/ the game knotted 2-2 after the 1st period. But then there was no more scoring until the GW goal in OT. 

In each of the first two games, the winning side has enjoyed a rather drastic edge in shots on goal. It was 38-20 Bruins in Game 1, then 37-23 Blues in Game 2. Wednesday was Boston's 1st loss since April 30th (true!) as they'd been 8-0 this month. They've lost B2B games only once in the playoffs, that being Games 2-3 in Round 2 vs. Columbus. But after that is when the eight-game win streak came into play. There still have been only two games, both in the first round series vs. Toronto, that the Bruins surrendered more than three goals. But might Tuukka Rask's ridiculous playoff save percentage (.939) be set to regress? 

St. Louis has scored multiple goals in all but two games this postseason, one of those coming way back in the first round. But they are dealing w/ a Boston side that scored three or more goals seven times during the eight-game win streak. Perhaps Jordan Binnington, a rookie, is prepared to hit a similar "wall" like Rask. The Over is 4-1 the L5 times the Blues have allowed two or fewer goals their previous game. 8* Over Bruins/Blues

7* Milwaukee (4:05 ET): Those pesky Pirates managed to beat the Brewers last night by a score of 9-4. That was fine by me (as I had the Over), but my view of the Bucs still has not changed. This is a bad baseball team masquerading as a .500 club. They have the NL's third worst run differential (at -64). so the fact they have a 28-28 WL record is highly misleading. As I've written about previously, Pittsburgh has the largest gap between actual & expected win totals (+7) in all of MLB. I'm 2 for 2 in this series already (had Milwaukee Thursday) and look to make it 3 for 3 here as it's back to the Brew Crew on Saturday. 

In the analysis for yday's game, I said to be wary of Jhoulys Chacin, who was starting for Milwaukee. He came into the game w/ a 1.625 WHIP his L3 starts and had poor career marks vs. the Pirates. Sure enough, he'd given up seven runs before the third innings was even complete. But I have no hesitation backing today's starter Brandon Woodruff, who checks in w/ a 7-1 record in 11 starts (9-2 TSR) to go along w/ a 3.22 ERA and 1.088 WHIP. Woodruff has been insane his L6 starts, allowing two or fewer runs every time out. He's allowed just six runs total in his last 38 IP. All six starts have resulted in Milwaukee victories. 

Eventually, Josh Bell will be unable to continue carrying this Pirates' lineup. Bell finished May w/ 94 total bases, the most by any player in that month since the great Willie Mays all the way back in 1958. Perhaps having to face Woodruff, who allowed just one hit in his last start (went eight innings) will be the start of Bell's inevitable regression at the plate. Also, Milwaukee has a huge pitching advantage in this game w/ Nick Kingman set to go for Pittsburgh. Kingman hasn't won as a starter since last July and has an 8.53 ERA in the role this season (three starts). The odds tell you "all you need to know" for this matchup (compare them to yday) and I love the idea of fading the Bucs off a win. 7* Milwaukee 

10* Over Royals/Rangers (4:05 ET): Texas is scoring runs in abundance this season w/ only Minnesota (best record in the league) averaging more. But the Rangers also give up their fair share too, allowing 5.3 rpg. The first two games of this series w/ the lowly Royals have both stayed Under, but I think this one bucks that trend. The Rangers' offense gets its shot at Homer Bailey, who has really struggled so far this season. Bailey has been particularly bad of late w/ a 9.58 ERA and 2.13 WHIP his L3 starts. He figures to really struggle here in Arlington. Take the Over.

Now Bailey did allow just one run and three hits in 4 1/3 IP his last time out. But that should just serve to illustrate how bad he'd been in the previous two starts. One of them was against Texas and Bailey lasted just 4 1/3 while giving up six runs. Kansas City ended up losing that game 16-1! Now scoring might very well be more evenly distributed in this one, but still expect Texas to score its fair share. They average nearly a full 6.0 rpg at home this year. 

I actually happen to think the Royals are better than their record. But they've still allowed the 4th most runs in all of baseball. Just as was the case on May 16th, Bailey will be opposed by Lance Lynn here. Lynn is coming off B2B outstanding outings (21 K's in 13 IP) , but both were against Seattle, who is slumping. He also pitched well in that aforementioned game vs. Bailey, allowing just one run in 7 IP. But Lynn still has poor numbers at home this year (5.92 ERA, 1.602 WHIP), the Rangers' bullpen isn't very good and overall the team is giving up 5.3 rpg this year. They've allowed almost as many runs this season as KC has. Take my word for it - this is going to be a high-scoring game. 10* Over Royals/Rangers

10* Cleveland (2:10 ET): What a terrible start to this series for the Indians, who happen to have been on each of the last two days. They've lost to the White Sox by scores of 10-4 and 6-1, which simply shouldn't be happening if the Tribe still fashion themselves as a true playoff contender. Yes, Chicago is playing its best baseball of the season right now (season-high five-game win streak), but three of those wins were against the last place Royals. While the White Sox have managed to beat Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer the L2 days, I still think Cleveland is an outstanding value in this spot. 

The Indians actually scored the game's first run last night, on a Francisco Lindor HR, but that was it for them in terms of scoring. They did finish w/ nine hits, almost as many as the White Sox, but few got into scoring position and even then the team was 0 for 5 when they did. There were also four Cleveland errors, which didn't help. Look for the sloppiness to be cleaned up today though. I also like the Indians' hitters chances against the struggling Ivan Nova, who has a 6.52 ERA and 1.719 WHIP for Chicago. Nova was better his last time out (against KC), but there have been five starts where he's allowed 5+ runs. 

Now Nova did pitch well against the Indians earlier in the year. But that was in Cleveland. At home this year, he has a 11.81 ERA and 2.312 WHIP, so that's where the majority of bad starts have come. It should mentioned the Cleveland starter Jefrey Rodriguez has been hit relatively hard in each of his L3 starts, all losses. But he too pitched well earlier this season when he faced off w/ today's opponent (allowed 2 runs in 6 IP). This boils down to the fact that the White Sox have still been outscored by 42 runs this year, so it's a little misleading they have the same record as the Indians (-17). 10* Cleveland

10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): This is a big revenge spot for the Redbirds, who got swept out in Wrigley earlier this month. May has been mostly unkind to the Cardinals as they have lost 18 of 25. But they do return home on a positive note having downed the first place Phillies yday afternoon by a 5-3 count. Few, if any, will be happier to be back in the confines of Busch Stadium than today's starter Miles Mikolas, who has pitched quite well at home in 2019. He has a 3.15 ERA and 0.825 WHIP here in six starts, so it's a little surprising to see the team start record at only 3-3. Really, a compelling case can be made that the Cardinals are underachieving as a whole right now considering they have outscored their opponents this year, but are still a game below .500.

The Cubs were also able to avoid a sweep by winning yday. Theirs came at home, however, against the mighty Astros. They won 2-1, a real change of pace from recent games as the Over had hit each of the previous seven times the Cubs hit the field. As you might expect, they'd been giving up plenty of runs during that stretch, 50 total to be exact. Don't look for that to change here w/ Yu Darvish on the hill. Recently, Darvish had shown signs of improvement, but that was before he was hit hard by Cincinnati in his last outing, which saw him give up six runs and 12 hits. The Reds homered off him three times. The Cubs were very lucky to win that game 8-6.

Save for one bad outing (at Texas on 5.17), Mikolas has pitched pretty well this season. He's certainly well rested, having started just once in the last 13 days. That was exactly one week ago and he turned in a quality effort vs. Atlanta, giving up just three runs in 7 IP. Unfortunately, he did not have the same good fortune Darvish had in his last start and the Cards lost that game 5-2. But Mikolas has allowed more than 3 ER just twice in his L7 starts and I see him leading his team to a crucial NL Central victory on Friday night. 10* St. Louis

8* Cleveland (8:10 ET): My read on this matchup proved incorrect yday, but I'm still coming back w/ the Indians tonight. They are the superior side and while words such as "mercurial" and "inconsistent" could be used to describe Friday's starting pitcher Trevor Bauer, when he's at his best, he's one of the top starters in the game. The White Sox, even though they were able to win 10-4 yday, are not a very good ballclub. They actually own a slightly worse YTD run differential (-47) than the last place Royals (whom they swept earlier in the week).

Bauer has been subpar in five of his last six outings. That's pretty shocking for a pitcher that was considered to be on the "shortlist" for AL Cy Young candidates. One of the rougher outings actually came against these White Sox, at home, where he allowed seven runs in just five innings. But the good news for Bauer is that he's pitched better on the road this year than at Progressive Field. On the road, he has a 2.39 ERA and 1.064 WHIP. He also still has an 8-4 career record vs. the White Sox in 17 starts. Bauer has been a good "stopper" in the past for Cleveland as his TSR when the team allowed 5+ runs in its last game is 7-3. 

Chicago's current four-game win streak is a season-high, but poised to end today. Good news for Bauer and the Indians is that Dylan Covey is starting here for the White Sox. It's been a tough stretch for Covey, who has bounced back and forth between the big league club and Triple-A Charlotte. Nowhere has he been effective as he's winless in his L4 starts w/ a 5.75 ERA. Furthermore, he has a 4.24 ERA in nine career starts vs. Cleveland (0-4 TSR L4). Last time out, Covey allowed four runs for the third time in those L4 starts. Cleveland is still 27-12 the L39 games in this AL Central rivalry. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Brewers/Pirates (7:05 ET): I have zero hesitation in fading Pittsburgh right now (did so yday), but I'm a little bit more wary of doing so tonight as Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin has pitched no better than the struggling Chris Archer has for the Pirates. For those "new to the program" here, my pessimisstic outlook on the Bucs' future has to do w/ their very bad YTD run differential (-69) and how it fails to correspond to their overall record (just one game under .500). That run differential took another big hit yday as they lost the series opener to the Brew Crew, 11-5. 

If Milwaukee was able to put 11 runs on the board yday, surely another strong offensive effort is to be expected here facing Archer. Archer is one of the few regular members of the Pirates' rotation still standing (i.e. not injured), but his continued health has hardly helped the team as he's 0-3 his L3 starts w/ an 8.56 ERA and 2.048 WHIP. That doesn't even include him giving up six runs in just four innings to the Dodgers, another loss back on April 26th. In fact, his team start record his L6 times out is 0-6! Career numbers vs. Milwaukee aren't good (6.60 ERA in three starts) and Archer hasn't delivered a quality start since April 13th. He's allowed a HR in five straight starts and the Brewers have been hitting a lot of balls over the fence recently (four yday).

The Pirates can hit too, specifically Josh Bell, who has 24 extra-base hits this month. So consider Chacin warned. Chacin hasn't pitched well lately, also losing his L3 starts (1.625 WHIP). He has a 5.90 ERA and 1.493 WHIP on the road (1-5 TSR) and the Pirates have generally had his number. Chacin is 2-6 w/ a 4.21 ERA against them in 12 career starts, including 0-3 last season. The Over is 10-1 the L11 times the Pirates have faced a starter w/ a WHIP higher than 1.30 (Chacin's is 1.374 for the year). 10* Over Brewers/Pirates

10* Toronto (9:05 ET): Despite being w/o Kevin Durant for (at least) Game 1, Golden State enters the NBA Finals as a prohibitive favorite for a fifth consecutive year. Of course, twice they made it here w/o Durant's services, but one of those was their only Finals loss. Unlike the previous four years, the Warriors will not be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (no more LeBron!). Instead, it will be the Toronto Raptors. Interestingly enough, this will also be the 1st time the Dubs do NOT have home court advantage in the NBA Finals. Despite being prohibitive favorites to win this series, they have been bet to the underdog role for Gm 1 after opening as an ever-so slight favorite. I completely agree w/ the line move and will take the Raptors here as my *10* Game of the Year! 

Toronto has played outstanding defense in the playoffs, holding the previous three opponents (Orlando, Philadelphia & Milwaukee) to 99.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting. At home is where the numbers get real impressive, especially if you take away the fact that Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a double overtime game (where Toronto barely trailed). Do that and the Raptors are giving up just under 96 PPG in regulation here at the Air Canada Centre. They just held the Bucks, who were the only team to average more points per game in the regular season than the Warriors, to 102 pts or less in regulation each of the last four games. So I do believe they are capable of limiting the Durant-less Dubs offensively here at home. 

Golden State certainly has the edge in rest coming into the Finals. They last played a game on May 20th, giving them a full nine days off heading into Game 1. But that brings up the old "rest vs. rust" debate. Their turnarounds were much quicker between the last two series. Then there is the matter that the Warriors trailed by DOUBLE DIGITS in each of the last three games against Portland. No team in NBA history had ever rallied from B2B 13+ pt deficits to win in the playoffs, let alone three straight times. Toronto has Kawhi Leonard, who has been a man possessed this postseason, averaging 31.2 PPG on better than 50% shooting. Golden State had one of the worst ATS records in the league in the regular season and was 0-2 SU/ATS vs. the Raptors. 10* Toronto 

7* Cleveland (8:10 ET): The White Sox may be coming off a three-game sweep here, but considering who the opponent was (Royals), that's really not all that impressive. The Southsiders remain a poor ballclub, which can quickly be confirmed by their -53 run differential that is tied for third worst in the American League. Things weren't looking so good for the Indians recently either as they followed a somewhat disastrous 4-7 homestand (three of the wins were over Baltimore) w/ a blowout loss in Boston (12-5 on Memorial Day). But the Tribe turned it around the L2 days w/ B2B wins at Fenway, including a big 14-9 win yday where they finished w/ a season-high 18 hits. I look for that to "carry over" into this weekend series. 

With the Indians hitting better now, that should take some of the pressure off Thursday's starter Carlos Carrasco, who struggled his last time out. But that was against a quality foe in Tampa Bay. Prior to that, he'd been pretty impressive, not even giving up a single run in four of his previous six starts. Two of those were against these White Sox, whom he held scoreless for a total of 12 innings. The Indians won the two games 5-0 and 9-0, the former coming at home and the latter here in Chicago.

Both times the White Sox got blanked by Carrasco, it was Manny Banuelos starting for them. Don't look for the third time to be the charm for Banuelos as he carries a poor 9.49 ERA and 2.108 WHIP (six starts) into Thursday. In those previous two starts vs. Cleveland, he surrendered 10 runs in 8 1/3 innings and five home runs. Look for him to come out on the "short end of the stick" yet again as Cleveland is a perfect 2-0 this season priced as a road favorite of -175 or higher and 33-15 in that role the L3 seasons. 7* Cleveland

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): We unsuccessfully went against Pittsburgh yday, but will fade them again today for virtually the same reasons. The Pirates may have a .500 record (27-27) on the year, but are actually playing to the level of a team that should have a .370 win percentage based on their very poor YTD run differential (-63). That run differential is 3rd worst right now in the entire National League, so I was very surprised that the Bucs were able to leave Cincinnati w/ a split of the four-game series. But this weekend finds them playing an even tougher opponent and this first game should be a loss.

The Brewers are in second place in the NL Central, only three games up on Pittsburgh, even w/ a vastly superior YTD run differential. A nice little edge for the Brew Crew here is that they had yday off. Their last series was a short one as they split two games in Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Pirates have played four games in the last three days (doubleheader Monday, which does them no favors. Back to the run differential for a moment - as I stated yday, no team has a bigger gap between actual and expected (based on run diff) win total than Pittsburgh. Now they're not only overachieving (and set to regress), but also in a bad situational spot. 

Milwaukee is 30-18 after an off-day and will send Chase Anderson to the bump Thursday night. Anderson has worked out of the bullpen and started four times. He has a 2.55 ERA as a starter and while he's yet to go longer than five innings in any outing, he's also never given up more than 3 ER. The Brewers have a good bullpen as well. Pittsburgh goes w/ Joe Musgrove, who I went against in his last start (vs. the Dodgers) and he gave up six runs in five innings. Musgrove now has a poor 6.10 ERA here at PNC Park. The Brewers are simply a better team here as I'm going to look to fade the Pirates regularly due to their poor run differential. 10* Milwaukee

6* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): High price to fade Noah Syndergaard, but given the state of the respective TEAMS here, it's certainly justifiable. It's not like Syndegaard has pitched that well either. The Mets have lost the last two times he's taken the mound w/ the last start being a shockingly poor performance against Detroit, who brought the American League's lowest scoring offense to Citi Field, played w/o the DH and still scored six runs off Syndergaard in just 5 1/3 innings. Syndergaard now has a 4.93 ERA and 1.255 WHIP on the season. A matchup w/ the red-hot Dodgers is unlikely to change his current trajectory. 

The Dodgers have the NL's best record right now at 36-19. That's after losing to the Mets last night, 7-3. LA is still hitting a collective .314 over the last week though and averaging 6.7 runs per game. At home is where they've truly been dominant this season. Dodger Blue is outscoring teams by 2.2 rpg here at Chavez Ravine and thus has gone 20-7 here. Tonight they send out Walker Buehler, who has been downright filthy of late and really all year. Over his last three starts, Buehler has allowed just five runs (in 19 IP) and three were unearned. He has 20 K's vs. just two walks, posting a 0.95 ERA and WHIP.

Buehler has gone seven straight starts w/o being charged with more than 3 ER and that streak is likely to continue here. The Dodgers are 8-2 this season as a home favorite of -175 to -250 and 64-27 in that same price range the L3 seasons. Furthermore, the Mets are just 2-7 in 2018 when priced at +125 or higher on the road. They are 31-66 the L3 seasons in that range. Off a loss, the Dodgers are 12-6 this year and they haven't dropped B2B games all month. A grand slam was the difference yday as the Mets won for just the third time in 17 tries against LA. That won't be happening again here. 6* LA Dodgers

10* Under D'backs/Rockies (8:40 ET): When Arizona arrived at Coors Field on Monday, they were coming off a dominant performance over the weekend where they swept the Giants, outscoring them 34-8 in three games. But save for that one series, things haven't been going well for the D'backs lately. They'd lost five in a row before getting to face the NL West cellar dwellars and have now dropped B2B games to the Rockies. While they curiously have a better record on the road than at home, nothing in the statistical profile (other than record) says they perform any better.

Colorado was actually under .500 at Coors Field before this series started. As per usual, offense is never a problem at home. The Rockies average 6.0 rpg here, tied for the highest scoring average by any team at home. But as per usual, the problem is they give up far too many runs here, 6.6 per game to be exact. So it might seem odd to go Under in this spot, but the last two games have definitely shown that such a play is possible to cash. The Rocks have won 4-3 and 6-2 here the L2 days. It's another high O/U line tonight as they look to go Under in three straight for the first time in over a month. 

Arizona turns to Robbie Ray for this one. He has a 3.26 ERA in 11 starts, which is solid, and has allowed no more than two runs in any of his L4 starts. He turned in a solid nine strikeout effort at San Francisco his last time out, which wound up being an 18-2 win for the D'backs. There's been just one start all season that Ray has been charged w/ more than 3 ER. He has a surprisingly decent 3.69 ERA in six career starts here in Denver. Colorado counters w/ Jeff Hoffman, who will be making just his third start of the year. The first two, both at home, haven't been great. But Arizona has done a surprising small amount of hitting the L2 days and I like his chances today. 10* Under D'backs/Rockies 

10* Under Blues/Bruins (8:05 ET): I'm still a bit upset from losing my *10* Total of the Year (Under) in Game 1. Not that I couldn't see it coming once St. Louis made the decision to pull the goalie. Still, that doesn't make the end result any less painful. I firmly believe Under was the right call for Game 1 and it sure was looking good early when it was a 1-0 game after the first period. But two quick goals at the start of the second changed the trajectory. But the Blues still only finished w/ 20 shots on goal and you have to think they have a bounce back game defensively here. I'm sticking w/ the Under for Game 2. 

There have been five previous instances of St. Louis allowing 4+ goals in a game this postseason, all of them ending up as losses. But after all four times they've bounced back defensively. They haven't always won, mind you, losing games to both Winnipeg and Dallas in Rounds 1 and 2. But in those five games after surrendering four or more goals, the Blues have allowed just 10 total goals or an average of only 2.0 per game. That's what I am expecting here as Jordan Binnington made 35 saves in Game 1 to up his save percentage from the L4 games to a sick .956. The Blues are 4-1 Under this postseason when trailing in the series. 

Boston is 4-1 Under when up in the series this postseason. Goalie Tuukka Rask has been great throughout the playoffs, posting a .940 save percentage, including .951 the L4 games. Going back to the second round, the Bruins have now allowed two goals or less in six straight games. They have not allowed more than three in any of the last 14 games and just twice the entire playoffs. 10* Under Blues/Bruins

8* Cincinnati (12:35 ET): Last time we checked in on these teams was Monday when I played the Reds in the second game of a doubleheader. They won (after dropping the first game), 8-1, and then followed that up by winning 11-6 yday as well (led by Derek Dietrich's THREE home runs). As was heavily discussed in Tuesday's analysis, this is a series we had circled for a number of reasons, most of them based off the respective YTD run differentials (which hardly correspond to the respective records). I was unable to play yday's game (line not available until late morning/early afternoon), but will pounce on Cincinnati yet again this afternoon. 

So the Reds are much better than their record. While they're currently last in the NL Central (26-29), they've actually outscored the opposition by 41 runs this season. That's the 5th best differential in the entire National League! Their offense has definitely woken up the L2 games and perhaps even more encouraging was the outing yday from Lucas Sims, who was called up and delivered career highs in strikeouts (9) and innings pitched (7 1/3). Today it will be Anthony DeSclafani on the hill. While he's struggled of late, I think like the rest of his team, he's in line for a resurgence. The Reds have still won 6 of his last 7 starts.

Pittsburgh has lost 7 of 9 and is now below .500 for the 1st time since May 3rd. Quite frankly, they should feel extremely fortunate to have been above .500 for so long. This is a team that has been outscored by 68 runs this season, the third worst differential in the NL and fifth worst overall. That run differential is indicative of a team that "should have" 19 wins, not 26. The Bucs' gap between actual and expected wins is currently the largest in all of MLB. Their rotation is in total shambles right now with another injury taking place last night. That brings us to Steven Brault, who gets the start tonight. While his TSR is 2-0, Brault has a 9.39 ERA and 2.086 WHIP. He and his team are due for a loss here. 8* Cincinnati

8* Over Cardinals/Phillies (7:05 ET): I feel that St. Louis still "owes" me after Sunday night's gagjob against Atlanta, which took place at home no less. They are 8-2-1 Over following an off-day. The Redbirds had themselves a 3-0 lead entering the ninth inning Sunday, but the bullpen blew that. The game was then lost in the top of the 10th on a bases loaded walk. Now the Cards travel to Philly to face a Phillies team that also had Memorial Day off. The Phils had won 7 of 9 entering Sunday, but lost 9-1 at Milwaukee, thus missing out on a chance to sweep a team that had recently taken three of four from them (here at home). 

Nick Pivetta returns from a stint at Triple-A Lehigh Valley to start for the Phillies on Tuesday. Before he was demoted, Pivetta was a pitcher you wanted to look to go Over with on a consistent basis. His last seven big league starts have all gone Over, a stretch that dates back to the end of last season. He's 4-0 Over in 2019 w/ all of those game seeing 14 or more total runs scored. Three have been team wins, but Pivetta has generally NOT pitched well as he has no quality starts. All four starts have come here at home & he has an 8.34 ERA and 2.126 WHIP. Truthfully, he wasn't that effective down on the farm either w/ 22 hits and 20 walks allowed in 37 IP. 

Adam Wainwright goes tonight for the Cardinals and while his career numbers against the Phillies are good, many of those starts came long ago. In the present day, Wainwright is struggling, having allowed eight runs in his last nine innings of work. He has issued nine walks (w/ only 4 K's) during that time. Wainwright also has not been nearly as effective on the road (6.75 ERA) as he's been at home (3.00). He's failed to make it past the fifth inning in three of his last four starts. Here, he'll be facing a Phillies lineup averaging 5.2 rpg at home. The Over is 15-6-2 in Wainwright's last 23 road starts. 8* Over Cardinals/Phillies

8* Under Giants/Marlins (7:10 ET): San Francisco has a minor edge here in that they had Memorial Day off while Miami was playing in D.C. (won 3-2). But that should hardly matter for a team that has lost five in a row (all at home) and is pretty bad overall (21-31). The only NL team w/ a worse record than the Giants right now is the Marlins, though they have won 7 of 10. Yesterday's win over the Nationals did allow Miami from being swept, however. No team has scored fewer runs in all of MLB and I think this game shapes up to be an easy Under play. 

As I just mentioned, SF has lost five in a row. They were swept over the weekend by Arizona, giving up 34 runs in the process. In fact, each of the last five Giants' losses have gone Over the total. That streak began the last time Jeff Samardzija (who goes tonight) started. While six runs were scored on the former Notre Dame wide receiver (and he allowed 2 HRs), none were earned. All six runs came in one inning and were a byproduct of a throwing error and a wild pitch. While he has not won since April 23rd, Samardzija still has the best ERA on a Giants staff that includes Madison Bumgarner. 

Miami will hand the baseball to Trevor Richards, who has pitched well his last two outings. He took full advantage of facing two bad offense (Mets, Tigers) to allow just four runs in 12 IP. The Giants' offense isn't as bad as Miami's, but it's still averaging only 2.7 runs the L7 games while batting a collective .207. With the Marlins offense currently having the lowest OPS since the dead-ball ERA, I just don't see many runs being scored in this game. 8* Under Giants/Marlins

8* Under Tigers/Orioles (7:05 ET): The Baltimore pitching staff has been an unmitigated disaster, but it's not like that wasn't to be expected. Still, giving up 7.0 runs per game at home is pretty eye-poppintg. You have to think that number is going to start coming down (at least a little!) and as far as American League opponents go, I couldn't think of a better one for the O's right now than the Tigers. It wasn't too long ago that I noted Detroit's increasingly poor run differential (now -99) as a sign they were about to "hit the skids" and sure enough they've dropped 12 of their last 13. 

Baltimore still has the AL's worst run differential (-106) w/ theirs being a byproduct of giving up the most runs per game in all of baseball. But they're facing the #29 offense in MLB (next to last) here. Detroit has, by far, scored the fewest number of runs in the AL w/ every team but Toronto having scored at least 50 more! Last night was a 5-3 win by Baltimore as Detroit made several key errors in the field and on the basepaths. A key play took place in the third as a throwing error opened the door for two Orioles runs that should not have scored. So, the reality is yday's game should have been even lower scoring.

Tuesday sees both teams sending their most effective starter to the mound. For Baltimore, that's not saying much, but Dylan Bundy does have a 3.30 ERA and 1.163 WHIP his L3 starts. He's only allowed seven runs total his L4 trips to the mound and that's in 23 2/3 innings. Bundy has shaved a full two runs off his season ERA this month. For Detroit, Matthew Boyd has clearly been their best starter and is coming off six shutout innings in his last outing. He has a 3.11 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 11 starts overall. The Under is now 5-2 the L7 meetings here in Camden Yards. 8* Under Tigers/Orioles

10* Under Blues/Bruins (8:05 ET): St. Louis made the Stanley Cup Finals each of its first three years of existence (1968, '69, '70) as the playoff format back then was quite weird. Ironically, they have not made it back since... until now. Further irony is the team that they are facing in 2019 is the same one that beat them back in 1970, Boston. You've almost certainly read about this elsewhere by now as it led to the iconic Bobby Orr photo when the Bruins won the Cup. Despite being the only team in the league to make the playoffs every season in the 1990s, the Blues are the oldest franchise never to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup.

Unlike many of the series in this NHL postseason, I do not have a firm position on who will win here. But I sure do like the Under for Game 1 Monday night in Beantown. The Bruins will have been off for a very long time (10 days!) when the puck finally drops at the TD North Bank Garden. They swept Carolina in the Eastern Conference Finals, holding the Hurricanes to just five goals in the four games. Appropriately, it was a 4-0 shutout in the close out game. Overall, the Bruins have won seven in a row and during that time they have given up just nine goals. In all but one of the seven games, they allowed two goals or fewer. 

Not to be outdone, St. Louis shut the door on San Jose in the Western Conference Finals, holding them to just two goals over the final three games. Their five days off between series would normally be substantial, but is quite modest compared to the amount of time Boston has had off. There was some rough defensive play early in the WCF, but the bottom line is the Blues have allowed two goals or fewer in seven of their last nine games. Rookie goalie Jordan Binnington has led the league in GAA (1.89) during the regular season. Boston's Tuukka Rask has a .942 save percentage in the playoffs. 10* Under Blues/Bruins

10* Under Brewers/Twins (7:10 ET): We're giving the Brew Crew a DH here against the top scoring team in all of baseball in a matchup of former division rivals. Yet Under remains the call. This may seem curious given yesterday's Over call on the Twins, which certainly saw them do their part (scored 7 runs) only to also shutout the lowly White Sox. But this Minnesota offense, hot as it may be, has to start slowing down. Milwaukee's Gio Gonzalez just might be the right man for the job as not only does he own a 2.39 ERA and 1.101 WHIP, but all five of his starts have gone Under. 

Minnesota counters w/ Michael Pineda. A 4.26 ERA in his last three starts is highly misleading considering his WHIP during the same time happens to be 0.895. He's allowed 9 runs on 15 hits during that time. The problem is that 7 of those 15 hits have been home runs (all solo shots!). I suspect that problem (of giving up the long ball) will start to subside. Now the Brewers did homer five times in yday's 9-1 win over Philadelphia. But the Twins continue to do quite well in the run suppression department as well. They allow just 3.2 runs per game at Target Field. 

Milwaukee was swept in its only previous IL series, by the Angels of all opponents. The Twins are the hottest team in baseball right now as they've won 11 of 12 and in the last six games (all wins), they've allowed more than four runs just one time. But back to Gonzalez, he has a 1.50 ERA in two previous starts here in the Twin Cities. I already mentioned that all of his starts this season have resulted in Unders. His team is also 6-1 Under its last seven games played in American League parks. This number is too high for a National League team, even one that has Christian Yelich in its lineup. 10* Under Brewers/Twins

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): This is a play on the second game of the Pirates-Reds doubleheader. The play stands regardless what happens in the first game, which takes place during the daytime. Pittsburgh isn't in very good shape now as they come off a 1-5 homestand and were just swept by the Dodgers. This downturn is something I wrote about extensively before it happened. Bottom line is the Bucs' run differential hardly corresponds w/ their won-loss record. They might technically be a .500 team right now (25-25), but they've actually been outscored by 59 runs.

The gap between the Pirates' actual and expected (based on run differential) win total is the largest in either league right now at +6. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you have the Reds, who have underachieved more than any other team. They are just 24-28, but have a +32 run differential. That's indicative of a 30-win team. They just took two of three from the Cubs over the weekend, including a 10-2 win Sunday. In addition to the projection regression/progression to the mean we're likely to see from the respective teams here, this is also a big revenge spot for Cincy, who was swept in Pittsburgh back in early April. 

I've also previously written about the fact the Pirates' starting rotation is currently in shambles due to injuries. Off an 11-7 loss to the Dodgers on Sunday, they'll be turning to top prospect Mitch Keller on the mound here. This will be Keller's big league debut and skipper Clint Hurdle has even admitted to this being a rush job. "In a perfect world, we would've given him some more time (in the minors)." The Reds counter w/ Sonny Gray, who threw six shutout innings of five-hit ball at Milwaukee last time out (team won 3-0). Though it was his first win of the season, Grey has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his 10 starts. 10* Cincinnati 

6* Houston (2:05 ET): The Astros have - not surprisingly - emerged as one of the top teams in the American League this season, if not in all of baseball. While they did lose Sunday - 4-1 to the Red Sox - all that did was prevent them from sweeping what had been a pretty hot team. The club still sits well out in front of the rest of the AL West (6.5 game lead) and has played .648 baseball, which is the fourth best win percentage in all of baseball. Starting Memorial Day, they welcome in another worthy adversary, this time it being the Cubs, but I fully expect the home team to be up to the challenge - at least on Monday. 

Gerrit Cole gets the baseball for the opener and there's no sugarcoating how poor his last start went. In five innings, he gave up six runs and that was to the White Sox no less. But the Astros righty had made one bad start before (at Texas on 4.20) and subsequently recovered nicely. In fact, seven of his previous nine starts (before last week's vs. the White Sox) had been quality. He leads all of MLB w/ 100 K's and has gone 9-3 all-time vs. the Cubs. The Astros have won 17 of their last 22 games overall and yday's loss was an aytpical poor effort in the field.

The Cubs lost 10-2 to the Reds on Sunday, falling for the third time in the last four games. They are still division leaders as well, mind you, but the resume isn't quite as impressive. The Astros have them beat not only in terms of record, but also run differential. Something to keep an eye on here is that Kris Bryant left yday's game after colliding w/ Jason Heyward. Starting pitcher Cole Hamels went a season-low four innings his last time out and has posted a 1.687 WHIP his L3 starts. Houston has not played any Interleague games yet, but went 32-15 against the National League the last two years. 6* Houston

8* Over Marlins/Nationals (1:05 ET): Whereas every other game on the board today is a series opener, this one is actually the finale of a "wrap-around" series that began Thursday. Washington is going for a much needed 4-game sweep as they have been terribly disppointing so far this season. Miami has the worst record in the National League, but actually came into the series riding a season-best six-game win streak (B2B sweeps). Can't say that I'm surprised at the "reversal of fortunes" that took place over the weekend and the money line is predictably high today w/ Max Scherzer starting for the Nationals. 

However, betting on Scherzer this season has not been an enjoyable endeavor. He has an almost unfathomable 2-9 team start record, which has resulted in a net loss of 11.7 units, the worst ROI of any starter in baseball. Scherzer still has decent numbers, mind you. But whether it's been lack of offense or the bullpen, his luck has been poor in 2019. There was one exception though and that was a terrible outing against Miami on 4.20 where he surrendered seven runs and 11 hits in just 5 1/3 IP. Let us not forget about that terrible Nats' bullpen either, which has the worst ERA in all of baseball (7.09). 

Two of the three games in this series have gone Over, the exception being Saturday's 5-0 shutout. The Nats have gone Over in 5 of their last 6 games overall and have put 26 runs on the board the L3 games vs. Miami pitching. Today, they're up against Jose Urena, who actually faced off against Scherzer back on 4.20. That day Urena pitched well. But it was also at home. He's still 2-6 w/ a 4.30 ERA and 1.449 WHIP this season. He has a 2-8 TSR, so this matchup features two of the worst starters to bet on in all of MLB. I'm banking on this going Over as that's the way Scherzer's last nine starts against teams with losing records have gone. The number is too low. 8* Over Marlins/Nationals  

8* St. Louis (7:05 ET): A four-run eighth inning last night was just what the doctor ordered for the Cardinals as they won for just the third time in the last nine games, beating the Braves 6-3. Now they look for B2B wins for the first time in almost a month. That seems shocking to type, but it's true as the Redbirds have gone just 7-15 here in May. Yet they have still maintained a +21 run differential on the year, which tells me that this team is better than its record (26-25). I look for them to get the win tonight on ESPN behind Jack Flaherty, who has pitched well here at Busch Stadium. 

Flaherty has a 2.48 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in five home starts, so St. Louis looks to be in good hands here. Last time out, he made a quality start in Texas, holding the Rangers to two runs on four hits over six innings. That's no small feat. The Rangers are #2 in MLB in scoring and because the game took place in an American League park, Flaherty had to contend w/ a lineup that had a designated hitter in it. Not so here and Atlanta comes in batting just .232 its last seven games. Flaherty has gone at least five innings in every start here in May w/o giving up more than 3 ER. 

Meanwhile, it's been a tale of two months for Braves starter Julio Teheran. He was very bad in April (5.35 ERA), but has greatly recovered in May (0.79 ERA). Still Teheran's strikeout numbers are not that impressive (18 in 22 2/3 IP) and that's against 11 walks. He's allowed only two runs on 10 hits during that time, which includes five shutout innings against these same Cardinals back on May 16th. But that was at home. Teheran is just 1-3 on the road (3-4 TSR). St. Louis is outscoring teams by a full run per game here at home, so I'm surprised their record isn't better here. Take them. 8* St. Louis

analysis soon 

8* Over Dodgers/Pirates (1:35 ET): This series (so far) has gone exactly how I thought it would, that being a couple of blowout wins by the road team (LA). I took the Dodgers last night as they had to wait out a small rain delay before rolling to a 7-2 victory. I wish I could have taken them Friday as well, but due to the uncertainty surrounding who would pitch for Pittsburgh, the game was unable to be bet until late in the afternoon. My reasons for going against the Pirates were detailed in yday's analysis and suffice to say, my outlook for them is no rosier today. Despite being a game above .500, the Bucs have been outscored this season by 55 runs! 

But today's play is not on the Dodgers, but rather the Over. While the Pirates' offense continues to put runs on the board, I was impressed yday by the fact they put up 10 hits against Hyun-Jin Ryu, which was a season-high for him after previously tossing 31 consecutive scoreless innings. Today, they will face Kenta Maeda. Opponents are hitting just .220 off Maeda this season, but this will be his first time pitching since a stint on the DL. Many times, we see a starter struggle to regain past form in his first start back. The Over is 4-1 in Maeda's last five road starts, not to mention 5-0 the Dodgers' L5 games overall. 

Something I actually did NOT touch on in yday's analysis is how the Dodgers have definitely had the Pirates' number through the years. They're now 18-4 the last 22 H2H matchups, scoring 126 runs in the last 16 games. That's an average of 7.9 runs per game and today, I'm afraid it'll be more of the same for the Bucs. Starter Chris Archer has REALLY struggled in 2019 (1-6 TSR) and lately things have gotten quite dire w/ a 10.66 ERA and 1.973 WHIP his L3 starts. Archer has a 5.73 ERA in two previous outings vs. the Dodgers and I don't see this one going well for him either. 8* Over Dodgers/Pirates

7* LA Dodgers (7:15 ET): It was earlier this week that I wrote a rather sudden downfall was forthcoming for Pittsburgh. My reasoning was similar to the bleak projection I had for Detroit not long ago. In both cases, it was all about run differential. Detroit continues to have one of the worst in the sport (-95), so you should expect to see them continue to flounder the rest of the season. The case of the Pirates may be even more curious. While still two games above .500, the Bucs have actually been outscored by 50 runs this season! That's third worst in the entire National League! 

Pittsburgh did take three of four from San Diego last weekend, but this week is when I predicted things might start to "go South." They have w/ the team dropping three of four. It began Tuesday when I had a 10* release against them (on Colorado). After dropping two of three to the Rockies, the Pirates lost Friday's opener w/ the Dodgers by a score of 10-2. I don't see Saturday starter Joe Musgrove turning the tide as he has a 6.06 ERA his last three starts. That doesn't even include him allowing seven runs in just 2 2/3 innings against Oakland, his last start here at PNC Park. 

The Dodgers are obviously a very good team and they'll be sending a very good pitcher to the mound tonight in the form of Hyun-Jin Ryu. To say Ryu has been "lights out" of late would be putting it mildly. He hasn't allowed a single run in three consecutive outings and has allowed just 12 men on base in 24 IP. Ryu has yet to allow more than two runs in any start. If anything, he's underachieved w/ a 6-3 team start record as his ERA and WHIP are 1.52 and 0.741 respectively. He leads the NL in KW ratio (59-4) and opponents are hitting just .190 off him. By the way, Ryu is perfect all-time vs. Pittsburgh, going 5-0 in five starts w/ a 2.31 ERA. This is as one-sided as it gets. 7* LA Dodgers

10* Toronto (8:35 ET): The Raptors are now leading this series, three games to two, and quite frankly deserve to be up. Aside from a poor performance in Game 2 at Milwaukee, they have outplayed the Bucks. They easily could have won Game 1 (but blew the lead late). Games 3 & 4 here in Toronto were basically wire to wire victories (even though the former went to double overtime). Then in Game 5, they gave the Bucks a taste of their own medicine in rallying to steal a win. That upset was the 1st SU win by a road team in the ECF and now has Toronto knocking on the door of their first ever NBA Finals appearance. I'll lay the short number w/ them at home.

That the Raptors were able to win on the road - despite shooting only 36.9% from the floor - is a minor miracle. They came back from an early double digit deficit, led by Kawhi Leonard's 35 points, to win 105-99 as a 7.5-pt underdog. Now they're back home where they are 7-2 SU in the playoffs. But what's been most impressive of all about the Raptors has been their defense. They're allowing just 99.9 PPG in the playoffs, on 41.2% shooting. The last three games have seen them hold the Bucks, the league's top scoring team from the regular season, to 102 pts or less in regulation. 

Even more impressive is that no opponent has scored more than 104 in regulation here in Toronto during the playoffs. I had the Under in Game 5 and called for the Raptors' bench to cool significantly after the hot shooting from Game 4. Well, now that they're back "North of the Border," I expect the bench to be a factor again. Admittedly, it is tough to pick the Bucks' season to end, but the Game 5 loss was a crusher. That the Raptors have shot barely above 40% in the series and have a chance to close things out is a bad sign for Milwaukee. I expect another offensive game from Toronto similar to Game 4. 10* Toronto

8* Over Bucks/Raptors (8:35 ET):  Though the Over cashed in Games 2-4, the Under was most certainly the correct call for Game 3 and would have cashed if not for TWO overtime periods. I was on the Under for Game 5 and that cashed easily w/ the Raptors pulling off a surprising 105-99 upset as 7-point road underdogs. One could make the case that - with the exception of Game 2 - Toronto has outplayed Milwaukee in this series as they led most of the way in Game 1 before relinquishing the lead (and cover) late. As they look to close the Bucks out tonight, I'm taking the Over.

There's a big difference in tonight's O/U line when you compare it to the closing number for Game 3, which is when it was at its series high point of 222. Yes, it took double overtime to send that one Over (game was tied at 96 at the end of regulation). But to me, tonight's O/U line looks like an over-adjustment by the linesmakers. It's at a series low point, basically a double digit difference from Game 3. That screams value to me. Toronto shot only 36.9% from the floor in the Game 5 upset and figures to be a lot sharper offensively tonight at home.

The Raptors' reserves were huge in Game 4, scoring 48 points in a 120-102 victory. I predicted that number would go down for Game 5 in Milwaukee and it did (down to 35 from the same three players). Bench play almost always improves for the home team and I expect that to be the case again here for Toronto. Meanwhile, we cannot discount a Bucks team that led the league in scoring during the regular season. The Over is 8-1 in their last nine road games and 6-2 their last eight visits to Toronto (2-0 in this series). 8* Over Bucks/Raptors

10* Over Marlins/Nationals (4:05 ET): These NL East rivals played to a 12-10 final last night, which was a much needed result for the floundering Nationals (they won). Coming into this series, Washington had dropped five in a row and been one of the more disappointing teams in all of baseball. Strangely, Miami (who has the NL's worst record) came into the Nation's Capital on six-game win streak (B2B sweeps). While I do think this ends up being a profitable series for the Nats, the money line is a little "rich for my blood" this afternoon. Fortunately, I don't think it's an overreaction to yday to jump on the Over.

Miami has - by far - scored the fewest runs in all of baseball. The next closest team is Detroit (who they just swept) and the Tigers have scored 20 more runs than them. Every other team has scored at least 44 more runs. But they did manage to put 10 on the board last night and have averaged 5.6 rpg over the last week. They've scored at least five runs in five of the last seven games. Today they face Pat Corbin and while he's pitched pretty well in 2019, don't forget about the albatross that is the Nationals' bullpen, which has the worst ERA in the entire league. Bottom line is I expect the Marlins to score some runs today. 

The Nationals have gone Over in four straight. They've allowed five runs in 8 of their last 9 games. Corbin does have a 4.62 ERA in six previous starts vs. Miami, though the last one game in 2017. After breaking out last night for 12 runs and 4 HR's, I also expect the Nationals' lineup to have success against Miami starter Sandy Alcantara. Yes, Alcantara did go the distance his last time out in a two-hit shutout. But that was against the Mets. Alcantara had allowed 4+ runs in 4 of his previous 6 starts and has a 1.881 WHIP on the road. Two previous starts vs. Washington have yielded a 10.13 ERA. 10* Over Marlins/Nationals

8* Over Mariners/A's (10:07 ET): Not to pat myself on the back or anything, but the sharp regression we've seen w/ the Mariners is something I predicted long ago. Last year's team completely overachieved in getting to 89 wins as they were outscored by 34 runs. So imagine my surprise when they began this year 13-2. But ever since, it's been all downhill as they are a MLB-worst 10-27 since late April and they've given up the most runs in all of baseball. They are also the top Over team (35-14-3 in all games), so coming off B2B Unders, I'm inclined to go Over here. 

The Mariners started the year unbelievably hot at the plate, homering in their first 20 games, which was a MLB record. The number of runs they were scoring simply wasn't sustainable, however. But what's offset that and kept them as the #1 Over team is how many runs they are now allowing. This month alone, there have been six times where they allowed 10+ runs in a game. They've allowed 57 in just the L7 games alone. Tonight's starter is Wade LeBlanc and he's unlikely to buck the trend seeing as he has a 7.36 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in four starts. He allowed seven runs his last time out, giving up 4 HR's, and lasted only 2 1/3 innings.

Seattle's opponent for this weekend is trending in a much different direction. Oakland has swept its last two series (Detroit, Cleveland) and looked dominant in doing so. They outscored the Tigers & Indians 46-15 and remember they had a game (that they were winning) called in Detroit. The only concern I have about the A's here is Daniel Mengden facing a Mariners lineup that can still rake (5.8 rpg scored away from home). Mengden has a 5.89 ERA in four career appearances vs. Seattle. One final thing worth noting is all four LeBlanc starts have gone Over w/ the final scores of those games being 4-18, 6-10, 12-5 and 10-8. 8* Over Mariners/A's

10* Over Braves/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Needless to say, the Mike Foltynewicz we've seen so far in 2019 does not resemble the same effective starting pitcher we saw last season. The Braves have lost all five of Foltynewicz's starts and he has generally not pitched well, which is confirmed by a poor 6.91 ERA. While he did look better his last time out, even then he had to exit early due to dizziness. St. Louis has not been a good opponent for him in the past w/ a 9.33 ERA in six career starts, most recently allowing eight runs in just 4 2/3 IP on May 14th. The Over is 6-0 the L6 times he's faced them. 

The Braves lost that last game 14-3, which was also the opener of a three-game set. They would bounce back to take the next two and enter this series in St. Louis having won 7 of the last 9 games overall. As I said earlier, Foltynewicz's last start did go better as he gave up just two runs on three hits, but the Braves still lost 3-2. So two of their last three losses have been with him on the mound. He also allowed two home runs in that last start, raising his season total to 10 in five starts. The Cardinals are two days removed from hitting 4 HR's in a game and homered three times off Foltynewicz when they saw him 10 days ago. 

Pitching in an American League park (Texas) did not go well for Cardinals' starter Miles Mikolas his last time out. He surrendered seven runs in just 1 1/3 IP. He allowed nine hits, two of them home runs. Home has been far kinder to Mikolas w/ the Under cashing the last two times he's pitched here. But he also gave up three HR's in another Busch Stadium start. The Over is 17-4 the L21 meetings between these two clubs, including 7-1 the L8 here in St. Louis. 10* Over Braves/Cardinals

10* Under Raptors/Bucks (8:35 ET): Toronto has evened this series up as they won 120-102 Tuesday night, thereby reducing the Eastern Conference Finals to a best of three affair. Unfortunately for them, only one of the games (Game 6) will take place "North of the Border" and tonight's return to Milwaukee figures to be more of a "reality check," at least offensively. With Kawhi Leonard hurting, the Raptors' bench turned in a tremendous performance in Game 4, one that won't likely be repeated anytime soon. As you likely now, bench points tend not to "travel well." Take the Under here.

While Game 4 did just end up sneaking Over (by 6 pts), it was Game 3 that was the bigger "heartbreak" for Under bettors. That's because that game, tied 96-96 at the end of regulation, went to DOUBLE overtime. The game was still Under even after the 1st OT. It's been three straight Overs in the series going back to Game 2, but I don't see the same kind of shooting we saw from Milwaukee in Game 2 - or Toronto in Game 4 for that matter - taking place here. These are two very good defensive teams and with the stakes now raised, look for the pressure to be turned up at that end of the floor. 

Milwaukee led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Prior to Game 4, they had allowed a FG% above 43.2 only once in the playoffs (Game 1 vs. Boston), which is very impressive. For the entire playoffs, opponents are just barely shooting above 40% from the field against the Bucks. Their points allowed predictably drops here at home. Toronto is allowing just under 100 PPG (99.9) for the playoffs, on 41.2% shooting. The Under is 7-2-1 their L10 road games. I love the Under here. 10* Under Raptors/Bucks

7* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET): This was supposed to Blake Snell going for the Rays, but both he and Charlie Morton have been pushed back a day for rest purposes. Thus, it will be an unannounced "opener" followed by Ryan Yarbrough instead. I think the Rays will do just fine though against a Cleveland team that just got swept at home for the first time in two year. The Indians' hitting has become a major concern, ranking in the bottom four in the American League in runs scored. No pitching staff in baseball has given up fewer runs than has Tampa Bay's. 

When I took Cleveland back on Monday, I thought they had a good chance to build off the "momentum" (still hate that word) from the previous series when they took three of four from Baltimore. Instead, not only did they lose Monday to the A's, they were swept. Turns out the offense that "woke up" versus the Orioles was probably just a byproduct of facing the worst staff in MLB. Oakland held the Tribe to just nine runs in three games and I simply don't see the home team turning things around here against a Tampa Bay staff that is holding opponents to 3.3 runs per game and a .217 batting average. 

Yarbrough is being recalled from Triple A where he posted a 2.14 ERA and 30-3 KW ratio. He has made five relief appearances for the big league club already. He faced Cleveland once, last season, and allowed just one run on two hits. The Rays, who beat the Dodgers yday 8-1, are 15-7 on the road and actually slightly underperfoming according to run differential. Cleveland sends Adam Plutko to the bump tonight and this will be just his second start. He allowed just a solo HR his first time out, but that was against Baltimore. It's a big step up in class here to face one of the American League's top teams. 7* Tampa Bay

8* Washington (12:10 ET): The Nationals season just keeps getting more and more disappointing as they are facing the prospect of being swept here by the Mets. Keep in mind that the Mets were floundering in their own right coming into this series. They'd been shutout in B2B games (by Miami!) last weekend, a pair of losses where they had only three hits. I'm truly confounded by Washington's poor start to the season as this was a team I had vastly improving in 2019. I know there have been injuries and the bullpen has been poor. But I still expect better out of the Nation's Capital. 

Enter Stephen Strasburg to save the day. He'll get the start Thursday afternoon and the last time he took the mound also happens to the last time the Nats won. It's the team's lone victory in the L6 games. Despite only having a 5-5 TSR, Strasburg has done "his part" this season by posting a 3.32 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. He's already faced the Mets twice in '19, the last time saw him throw 6 2/3 innings of scoreless, three-hit bal in this stadiu. Five of Strasburg's last six starts have seen him surrender 2 ER or fewer. 

The Mets will go w/ Steven Matz, who is unbeaten here at home (3-0 TSR). He only made in 3 2/3 innings his last start, which was a loss at Miami. Like Strasburg, Matz didn't allow any runs the last time he faced today's opponent. It should be noted that all six Mets' runs yday came in a stunning eighth inning rally. It was the second straight come from behind victory. Again, the Nationals are better than this. They are 71-28 in Strasburg's last 99 starts, including 16-2 if it's Game 4 of a series. 8* Washington

8* Atlanta (9:45 ET): These teams come into Wednesday having split the first two of this four-game set. The Braves won the opener on Monday, 4-1, but then lost last night by a score of 4-3. Note that it appeared they were well on their way to winning a second straight, but gave up three runs in the bottom of the ninth w/ the game-winning hit (2-run single) coming w/ two outs. But it looks like the oddsmakers took a pretty clear position on tonight's matchup and sharp money came in and immediately backed the road team. For good reason too; Atlanta is a perfect 3-0 this season as a -125 to -175 ML favorite on the road and 14-5 the L3 seasons. 

The Braves were NOT in this price range for yesterday's game, but were Monday (closed -140). Had they closed the deal last night, then Atlanta would be 6-1 its last seven games. During that stretch, they've scored 5.6 runs per game and hit a collective .283. As they look to bounce back here, they'll send Max Fried to the hill. Last week, Fried threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball and that was against a Milwaukee lineup that typically has little difficulty scoring runs. The Giants, on the other hand, are one of the weakest offensive teams in all of baseball. Fried should be effective yet again here.

The Giants average only 3.1 rpg at home this year while hitting a collective .207. Both of those numbers rank 29th in all of baseball (home games only). This SF club may only be 21-26 and in last place in the NL West standings, but they've actually overachieved some in my eyes. Last night's win improved them to a MLB-best 13-4 in one-run games. By run differential (-44), they've played to the level of an 18-win team. Starter Jeff Samardzija threw a season-low 68 pitches his last time out, but the former Notre Dame wide receiver has a 6.28 ERA/1.465 WHIP his L3 starts overall. 8* Atlanta

8* Under D'backs/Padres (3:45 ET): The first two games of this series both stayed Under as the home team (San Diego) won a pair of low-scoring games, 2-1 and 3-2. The Padres are now tied (w/ the Giants) for the most one-run victories in all of MLB at 13. That's really helped them keep afloat as they've actually been outscored on the season, primarily due to an anemic offense that ranks near the bottom in runs scored (25th). But as we've seen the last two days, Arizona isn't doing much at the plate either right now. So for a third straight day, this series produces an Under. 

San Diego had actually dropped six of seven coming into this series. They still have not scored more than four runs in any of the previous eight games and are batting a collective .194 in the past seven. On the pitching front, they'll send Eric Lauer to the bump for Getaway Day. Save for one bad outing (which came at Coors Field, so that's excusable), Lauer has pitched very well of late. He's given up 3 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts. Last time out, he held the Pirates to just two runs (one unearned) in 5 2/3 IP. This will be his third time facing Arizona this season, so he's familiar w/ the lineup. 

The D'backs counter w/ Merrill Kelly, who tossed 5 2/3 scoreless frames his last time out. Again, like Lauer, Kelly had one bad outing this year. But other than that, he's been quite effective. He's allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his nine starts, so to me the ERA & WHIP are misleading (same thing for Lauer). Arizona has only scored five runs total in its last three games (only 13 hits), so they certainly aren't hitting either. In fact, over the last seven games, they're batting a collective .227. The Under has hit in San Diego's last seven Wednesday games. 8* Under D'backs/Padres

10* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): This play sets up very similar to yday's 10* SUPER POWER winner on Colorado over Pittsburgh. The only difference being is this time we're playing ON a team who, according to run differential, has underachieved (in terms of wins & losses) so far this season. Yesterday, it was playing AGAINST an overachiever in Pittsburgh, who has somehow managed to stay above .500 despite a very poor YTD run differential. Today we're looking at a Reds team that is far better than its record shows as despite being four games below .500, they've actually outscored their opponents by 27 runs over the course of the season! 

To put the Reds' YTD run differential in its proper perspective, note that it's second best in the division and fourth best overall in the National League! But perhaps yday was the start of a long overdue surge. They shut Milwaukee out 3-0, the MLB-leading 7th time they've shut an opponent out this season. The number of shutouts obviously has a somewhat drastic effect on the run differential as the Reds' staff has given up the second fewest runs in all of baseball (#1 in NL). Milwaukee did not have its best hitter (Christian Yelich) in the lineup Tuesday and as as result they managed only three hits and never got a runner past second base. Yelich is being reevaluated for today, but probably won't play given it's a day game. He's already missed a number of games due to the back issues. 

Today's starting pitching matchup brings two of the top four pitchers in ERA against one another. Luis Castillo has a 1.90 ERA (and 0.957 WHIP) in 10 starts while Milwaukee's Zach Davies has a 1.54 ERA (and 1.177 WHIP). So this shapes up as another pitchers duel, which is probably the way the Reds want it. Without Yelich, you have to wonder about the Brewers' offense. Let's also go back to the subject of run differential as the Reds are +27 while Milwaukee is only +11. This Reds team is vastly underrated right now. 10* Cincinnati

8* Toronto (8:35 ET): My condolences to anyone who may have had the Under in Game 3, which was an all-time bad beat as it took not one, but TWO overtimes to send the game Over the total. Toronto was definitely happy w/ the result, however, as the 118-112 win enabled them to "get back" in the series. Now only down 2-1 in the series (as opposed to the 3-0 "death knell"), a win here by the Raptors would reduce this Eastern Conference Finals to a best of three affair. I cashed the home dog last night in a "must-win" scenario and while they didn't win, they were covering virtually wire to wire. I'll take the points again tonight. 

Had it not been for OT, Game 3 would have marked the seventh straight home game that Toronto held its opponent below 100 pts. That's a pretty remarkable accomplishment in the modern NBA. For the entire playoffs, they are holding teams to 99.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting. At home, the PPG allowed average drops to 95.3. The most pts they've allowed in regulation for any home playoff game is 104. Coming into this series, they'd allowed 100+ pts in just 3 of 12 playoff games and two of those were on the road. 

The Raptors were definitely outclassed in Game 2 at Milwaukee, but led most of the way in both Games 1 and 3. Game 1 was an infamous chokejob, similar to what we saw from Portland throughout the Western Conference Finals. Toronto led that game by as many as 13 and was up seven entering the 4th quarter. Game 3 did see them outscored in each of the final three quarters, however, the Bucks led just twice in the entire game: 2-0 and then 105-103 in double overtime. I feel the Raptors should be favored in this game (as they were in Game 3). 8* Toronto 

10* Under Bucks/Raptors (8:35 ET): My condolences to anyone who may have had the Under in Game 3, which was an all-time bad beat as it took not one, but TWO overtimes to send the game Over the total. Toronto was definitely happy w/ the result, however, as the 118-112 win enabled them to "get back" in the series. Considering the game was 96-96 at the end of regulation (both teams shot below 40% from the field), coming back here w/ the Under seems pretty logical, especially given the kind of defense we've seen from both teams throughout the playoffs. 

Had it not been for OT, Game 3 would have marked the seventh straight home game that Toronto held its opponent below 100 pts. That's a pretty remarkable accomplishment in the modern NBA. For the entire playoffs, they are holding teams to 99.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting. At home, the PPG allowed average drops to 95.3. The most pts they've allowed in regulation for any home playoff game is 104. Coming into this series, they'd allowed 100+ pts in just 3 of 12 playoff games and two of those were on the road. The Under is 5-2 the L7 times the Raptors have been off a game where they allowed 100+ pts. 

Milwaukee led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and has been just as excellent as Toronto has on that end of the floor in the playoffs. Only one time (Game 1 vs. Boston) have the Bucks allowed a FG% above 43.2. That's pretty incredible. For the entire playoffs, opponents are shooting below 40% from the field! Toronto's last five games have seen them shoot below 40% overall and at the same time Milwaukee has finished below 40% in two of the three games in this series. The Under is 13-5 the L18 times the Bucks have been off a SU loss. 10* Under Bucks/Raptors

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues turned in a completely dominant performance in Game 5, battering and blanking the Sharks, 5-0. Having followed them throughout the playoffs, this is a little reminiscent of the last round where they picked up a huge road win in Dallas (won 4-1) before getting to close the series out at home in Game 7. St. Louis has closed out both previous series here on home ice, so while they may actually have a losing record here at the Enterprise Center in the postseason, they've won when it matters most. That trend continues tonight as I'll call for them to close out San Jose and move onto their 1st Stanley Cup Finals since 1970 (never won).

The Game 5 loss was quite costly to the Sharks. Not only are they now down 3-2 in the series, but they are likely w/o three key players as their season is on the line tonight. Tomas Hertl and Joe Pavelski both suffered in-game injuries, the latter's coming on a big hit in the third period. Hertl was not only 2nd on the team in goals scored this postseason, but 3rd overall in the league. Then you have defenseman Erik Karlsson, who aggravated a groin injury that limited him in the regular season. Neither he nor Hertl played in the third period Sunday. All three injured players may miss tonight's game. Game 5 was a completely one-sided affair w/ the Blues outshooting the Sharks 40-21. 

Incredibly, the Blues were last in the league in points back on January 2nd. They are now one win away from their 1st SCF appearance in 49 years after making each of their first three years of existence (playoff rules were weird back then). While the Blues were the only team in the league to make the playoffs every year in the 1990's, they are also the oldest existing franchise never to win the Cup. So tonight's game definitely means a lot. I've written previously on how San Jose's scoring dips dramatically on the road. In the playoffs, they've scored just 18 goals in eight road games (been shut out twice). At home, they've scored 39 goals in 10 games. 10* St. Louis

10* Colorado (7:05 ET): So I've had an eye on this matchup for the last several days. The reason being is that Pittsburgh is a team I'll be looking to fade more and more. This is because they have overachieved greatly in getting to 24-20 on the season. Despite being above .500, the Pirates have actually been outscored this season by 39 runs, which is easily the worst differential in their division and third worst overall in the National League. The gap between their actual and expected win total (+7) is the largest in all of MLB right now. Considering they just won three in a row, it's "high time" they "paid the piper." 

Colorado comes into PNC Park on a four-game losing skid. They were just swept in Philadelphia, though every game was close and two of the three losses were one-run games. The Rockies excelled in one-run games LY (going 21-14), but as is often the case, things go "sideways" the following year and they are just 5-9 in such games in 2019. But help is on the way Monday in the form of starter German Marquez, who has been outstanding outside of Coors Field this season. In five road starts, Marquez has a 2.55 ERA and 0.793 WHIP. 

Marquez has won both of his previous starts here at PNC Park, posting a 2.45 ERA. Even if he didn't have those career marks - or a strong resume on the road - this still shapes up as a strong fade on Pittsburgh. Mark my words that the Pirates are a team set to regress heavily, much in the same way I predicted Seattle would a month ago, or even Detroit more recently. The starting rotation is NOT in good shape and tonight's starter Chris Archer happens to be 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 10.66 ERA and 1.973 WHIP. By the way, Colorado only allows 3.9 rpg on the road, which is 6th best in all of MLB. 10* Colorado

10* Portland (9:05 ET): It's all come down to this for the Blazers, who must win tonight or their season is over. Obviously, their chances of coming back to take this series currently rank somewhere between slim and none. But considering they've led each of the last two games by double digits at halftime, I won't hesitate in backing them at home. Especially now that they are an underdog, which was not the case for Game 3. Also, Portland is 12-1 ATS at home the L2 seasons when playing w/ revenge for a double digit loss (lost Game 3 by 11 points). Take the points here. 

Coming into this series, no team in NBA history had ever won B2B playoff games in which it trailed by more than 13 points. That's changed now w/ the Warriors doing just that in both Games 2 and 3. Game 2 was bad enough as Portland blew an eight-point lead w/ just over four minutes to go (and they led by 15 at half). But Game 3 may have been even worse as the Blazers led that game by as many as 18 in the first half, at home, and not only didn't win, but they didn't cover either. It was a double digit loss (110-99) where they were held to a measly 33 points after halftime. 

Portland averages 118 PPG at home for the year, so we should a bounce back performance offensively tonight, at least relative to the second half disaster from Saturday. They scored 66 points in the first half, so they're certainly capable of scoring against this Warriors team, which by the way remains w/o both Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins. Sure, the Warriors still have three other All Stars on the roster, a luxury almost unheard of in the history of this league. But they are also 1-7 ATS their L8 games following an ATS win and also 19-42-2 ATS when off a double digit victory. 10* Portland

8* Over Warriors/Blazers (9:05 ET): It's all come down to this for the Blazers, who must win tonight or their season is over. Obviously, their chances of coming back to take this series currently rank somewhere between slim and none. But considering they've led each of the last two games by double digits at halftime, I don't see them simply "rolling over" here. They average 118 PPG at home for the year and scored 66 in the first half here in Game 3. A second consecutive 2nd half meltdown cost them the cash (and an Over), but I definitely see them scoring more points tonight. 

The problem for Portland is that Golden State can score too. Despite not having Kevin Durant, the Warriors have scored at least 110 pts in the last four games, averaging 114.5 PPG overall. They average 117.6 PPG for the season. As you might expect, Steph Curry has picked up the slack in Durant's absence, scoring at least 33 points in all four games. That's the luxury Golden State has with five All Stars and two former MVP's on its roster. The Over is 11-3 in their L14 trips to Portland and 20-9 their L29 overall meetings w/ the Blazers.

Remember what I wrote in my Game 2 analysis about the total and the O/U line relative to the regular season. None of the four regular season matchups between the Warriors & Blazers saw fewer than 219 total pts scored. For the final regular season meeting, the O/U line was set at 235.5 points and the game still went Over! Portland should shoot better than 40% from the field tonight (that was their FG% in Gm 3) and three-point shooting in particular should improve. The Over is also 4-0 the L4 times the Blazers have been off an ATS loss.  8* Over Warriors/Blazers 

10* Over Yankees/Orioles (7:05 ET): When the Orioles pitching staff is involved, plenty of runs are to be expected. They just made a Cleveland offense - that had previously been scuffling - look great over the weekend. Twice the Indians put 10+ runs on the board, including a 10-0 shutout Sunday. For a Yankees team that just put 13 on the board yday - against a Rays pitching staff that is among the best in baseball - they should have little difficulty scoring in this series, this game in particular. They come in averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road. Take the Over tonight. 

Baltimore is giving up an unthinkable 6.7 rpg at Camden Yards this season. Only one team is allowing a higher number of runs per game at home and as per usual it's Colorado at the bottom. Baltimore is also 29th overall in runs allowed, so it's not like the poor pitching at home is anything unique. But home games have been higher scoring overall. Early in the year, the O's hosted the Yankees in a three-game set and all three games went Over. The Over is now 35-11 in the L46 meetings between these AL East rivals and that's after the last two both went Under.

Starting here for the Yanks will be J.A. Happ, who has pitched well on the road. But a) the Yankees figure to score enough here that even if Happ is good, it won't matter and b) Happ's overall numbers indicate that his YTD road performance may be a mirage. He has a 4.44 ERA in nine starts overall and two starts against Baltimore both went Over w/ neither seeing Happ make it out of the 5th inning. The Orioles will counter w/ Andrew Cashner, who did pitch well at Yankee Stadium last week (part of a doubleheader). But he also gave up six runs to the Yankees when he faced them on Opening Day. The Over is 20-5-1 in the Yankees' last 26 road games. 10* Over Yankees/Orioles

7* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Despite a lack of hitting and some injuries, the Indians have stayed viable in the American League and would actually be a Wild Card if the playoffs started today. Obviously, we're a longways away from October, but I don't think the Tribe should be that discouraged at all about their current position. As hot as Minnesota has been, it's only a 4.5 game deficit in the division. I still project Cleveland to win 90+ games this season. They just took care of business over the weekend, taking three of four from lowly Baltimore, and now have another ideal matchup on the docket. There's some revenge at play here too as the Indians dropped 2 of 3 out in Oakland earlier in the month. 

The A's come to Cleveland on a three-game win streak. It should have been four, but Sunday's game in Detroit was suspended due to rain. Before that, they had completely emasculated the Tigers, outscoring them 28-6 in the first three games. But Detroit is also really bad. Before that series, the A's dropped a pair of games to a Seattle team that has the worst record in baseball since April 27th. The three-game series w/ Cleveland was before that and note both Oakland victories came in the final at-bat. 

I like Carlos Carrasco starting for the Indians here as he has a 1.83 ERA and 0.763 WHIP his L3 starts. He hasn't given up any runs in four of his previous six starts and has a 2.49 ERA and 0.831 WHIP pitching at home this year. The team has won each of his last three starts as he's working on a 12-inning scoreless streak. Carrasco has also pitched well in the past vs. Oakland, going 4-1 w/ a 2.89 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The same can be said for Brett Anderson against Cleveland (0.82 ERA, 0.76 WHIP in 5 appearances), but Monday's starter for the A's is also 1-3 in his L5 starts and has allowed 4 ER in B2B outings. 7* Cleveland

8* Under Pirates/Padres (4:10 ET):  Pittsburgh, like Detroit, is a team that has a troubling run differential. They've been outscored by 41 runs this season. While not nearly as bad as Detroit's run differential, what's perhaps more strange about the Bucs' is they actually have a winning record in spite of that negative run differential! This is a team I'll probably look to fade in the coming weeks, but for now let's look at the Under as they wrap up a four-game set w/ San Diego Sunday afternoon. The Padres are looking to earn a split here after losing each of the L2 days.

The last two games, again both Pirates' wins, have gone Over. Pittsburgh put seven on the board last night, but I wouldn't go looking for a repeat of that as they are second to last in the National League in runs scored (Miami). There's a pretty sizable gap between them and most of the other teams in the division. Note every other team in the Central, besides Pittsburgh, has a positive run differential this season. One thing that is keeping them afloat is that they are a respectable 6th in the NL in runs allowed. Today's starter Joe Musgrove was able to shake off a couple bad starts to throw seven innings of one-hit ball his last time out. That was in Arizona. Opponents are hitting just .209 off him for the season. 

One of the teams ahead of Pittsburgh in the National League, in terms of fewest runs allowed, is San Diego. But they too have an issue scoring runs as they are third from the bottom in the Senior Circuit. So, as you can see, this is a matchup tailor-made for an Under. The Padres go w/ Cal Quantrill in this spot as he's looking to earn a permanent spot in the rotation. He's allowed just four runs in 10 IP so far as a starter. The Pirates homered four times yesterday, but Quantrill has yet to give up any. The Padres are hotting just .223 at home this year. 8* Under Pirates/Padres