8* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies are facing the prospect of getting swept in a four-game series in their home ballpark. They and the Giants played a doubleheader Monday and while the second game was certainly close (lost 2-1), the first was most definitely NOT (lost 19-2). Last night was closer than the 8-4 final suggests as the game went into extra innings after a three-run Colorado rally in the bottom of the ninth. But still, they gave up four runs in the 10th and lost for the fourth time in the last five games. I can't see the Rockies being swept though. Not by the Giants. 

You do have to expect the hitting will start to improve for Colorado. They average 6.6 runs per game here at Coors, the highest scoring average at home of any team in baseball, which is not surprising given the repuatation of the park itself. Today, they face a rookie (Shaun Anderson) that will be pitching for the very first time in Coors. It's not as if Anderson's numbers are all that impressive as he's got 6.13 ERA and 1.772 WHIP his L3 starts, even though the Giants have won all three games. Their scoring is due to subside here as they rank 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS.

Jon Gray gives his team what I feel is a sizable edge today. He's actually 4-1 w/ a 3.26 ERA in eight home starts, which is very good all things considered. The team's record in those eight starts is 6-2 and seven of them have actually stayed Under. Gray's last start was here in Coors and was a quality one as he held the Reds to two runs in seven innings. He also beat Clayton Kershaw here, 5-3, late last month in another quality effort. Gray has faced the Giants twice this season, both times in San Francisco, and allowed only one run and nine hits in 12 2/3 IP. 8* Colorado

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies were totally embarrassed by the Giants yesterday, getting swept in a doubleheader and scoring only three runs in the hitter-friendly home park. The first game of the day-night twinbill was especially humiliating as they lost 19-2! The second game, while closer, was no less painful as it brought a 2-1 defeat. That brought the Giants to 19-10 in one-run games this year and 45-49 overall, masking the fact that this team has been outscored by 45 runs. This is a really good price on Colorado at home as they're out for revenge. 

It wasn't that long ago that Rockies' starter Pete Lambert was being touted as a prized prospect. His first two big league starts (both against the Cubs) went really well as he allowed only two runs and seven hits across 12 innings. But in the four subsequent outings, the wheels have come off a bit. Two were against the Dodgers and three came here at Coors. I think it's far too soon to give up on this rookie though and the Giants have never faced him before. Also, while SF enters tonight on a three-game win streak, be aware that they are just 2-6 this season when on a streak of that length.  

I just can't see the Rockies losing again here after being swept in a doubleheader yday. As much concern as there may be over Lambert, I can't foresee the Giants' Drew Pomeranz pitching well tonight. He has a 9.76 ERA and 1.988 WHIP on the road to begin with and Coors is obviously the toughest venue in the league to pitch. Five of Pomeranz's last six starts have come at home, including the last three. In his previous two road starts, he has allowed a total of 15 ER in just 5 2/3 IP. The Rockies are 8-3 their L11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Colorado 

8* Over Pirates/Cardinals (8:15 ET): St. Louis shut Pittsburgh out last night, 7-0. Not to "toot my own horn," but a Pirates' downfall is something I projected long ago and that's exactly what has taken place. The Bucs are 0-4 since the All-Star Break and have scored only 10 runs. They are a team that has had a poor run differential most of the year (currently -55) so the fact they've been able to stay within a few games of .500 in a wide open division seems extremely fortunate. For tonight, I'll call for them to at least put some runs on the board. Now that may not mean victory, but I do see this NL Central matchup going Over the total.

St. Louis has climbed past Milwaukee into second place in the crowded Central by virtue of winning their last three games. Only five teams have allowed fewer runs this season, so last night's shutout win can hardly be described as "shocking." But the Redbirds also had Miles Mikolas on the hill Monday and he tends to pitch very well here at Busch Stadium. Now the same could be said for tonight's starter Jack Flaherty, however his last start here at home did NOT go well as he allowed seven runs in just 4 2/3 IP and that was to an American League lineup (Oakland) playing w/o its DH. 

The Pirates have been one of the top Over teams in all of baseball this season. Their O/U record is 54-35-3, making them one of only three teams to go Over in at least 60% of their games. They went into the All-Star Break having gone Over in five straight. Tonight Dario Agrazal will get the start. While he's been satisfactory so far, it's a small sample size of only three starts. Agrazal has gotten a TON of run support his last two times out w/ the Pirates scoring 26 runs in those games. The Over is 23-6 in Pittsburgh's last 29 games off a loss. 8* Over Pirates/Cardinals

10* Over White Sox/Royals (8:15 ET): This is an interesting matchup. Because while Chicago is 11.5 games AHEAD of KC in the AL Central, that happens to be as misleading as any deficit in the entire MLB standings. The Royals actually have the better YTD run differential (-85 vs. -90) and thus it was not a shock to me to see them take last night's series opener, 5-2. The fact that the White Sox come in favored for a second straight day seems a bit "off" to me, but this is a game where I expect both clubs to score in bunches and thus Over is my call for Tuesday. 

At least the White Sox had Lucas Giolito on the mound last night. That alone probably justified the oddsmakers' line, but it didn't matter as Chicago did little offensively and Giolito lost to the Royals for the 1st time in his career. Starting tonight will be the unproven Dylan Cease, whose only previous big league start saw him allow three runs in 5 IP to a Detroit team that has scored the fewest # of runs in the American League. The game, which took place 12 days ago, was a 7-5 final in the White Sox favor and did go Over the total. 

Chicago hasn't won since the All-Star Break, so the regression that their run differential seemed to indicate would happen, has taken hold. Meanwhile, KC has improved its standing by winning three of four since the Break. But they'll need to bring their bats today w/ Glenn Sparkman on the bump as he has a 10.43 ERA and 2.045 WHIP his L3 starts. Now all three came on the road and he has pitched better at home. But the Over is 17-6-2 in KC's last 25 home games vs. a team w/ a sub-.400 win percentage on the road. The White Sox are 17-28 away from Guaranteed Rate Field. 10* Over White Sox/Royals

8* Under D'backs/Rangers (8:05 ET): Though it's been established that Arizona is a better team on the road this year and Texas can certainly score too, I see this Interleague matchup staying Under on Tuesday. That may seem counter-intuitive given the offensive increase from the Diamondbacks on the road and they're getting a DH added to the lineup here. But in the end, we've got two quality starting pitchers set to face off and that should make for a lower scoring game than anticipated. Take the Under. 

Arizona has seen its last six games all stay Under. Over the weekend, they lost two of three out in St. Louis. They scored only eight runs in the three games. Despite being just .500 overall, the D'backs do have the NL's 4th best run differential, which is surprising. Only five teams in the NL have surrendered fewer runs. Today they turn to Alex Young, whose first two starts have gone very well. He's allowed just 1 run in 11 IP and his last time out saw him toss six no-hit innings! Both starts resulted in easy Unders and I'm counting on Young holding the Rangers' lineup in check here. The Arizona staff has allowed a .197 BA its L7 games. 

Texas is one of the bigger surprises in the American League as they're in the Wild Card hunt after back to back losing seasons. Now they were swept by Houston to start the second half while giving up 27 runs in the process (Over hit in all three games). But Lance Lynn has been one of the Rangers' best pitchers this season and he goes tonight. Lynn is 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 0.82 ERA and 0.955 WHIP. He's also unbeaten (8-0) in 10 starts here in Arlington. Having spent time in the National League, he's had plenty of success in the past vs. Arizona, going 6-0 w/ a 2.80 ERA in 12 starts against them. Earlier this year, in Phoenix, he held them to one run and four hits in 6 IP. 8* Under D'backs/Rangers

8* Under Padres/Marlins (7:10 ET): The last time we saw Miami's Jordan Yamamoto, he did his job in holding Atlanta (a good offensive team!) scoreless over six innings of two-hit ball. Even though the Marlins ended up losing that game 1-0, the result was fine for me as I had Yamamoto and the Fish +1.5 on the run line. As Yamamoto is set to make his sixth start of the season (3-0 w/ 1.86 ERA, 0.931 WHIP), I will again call for him to pitch well as tonight he faces a floundering San Diego club which got swept (by Atlanta) to start the second half. But of course, we must be wary of the lack of offense from Miami as well. So I'm taking the Under in what should be a low-scoring game. 

The Marlins have in fact scored the fewest number of runs in all of baseball this season. There was a point, early on, when they were on pace to score the fewest runs in a season going all the way back to the "Dead Ball era." Things have picked up some, but they still only average 3.6 rpg and they've scored a fewer number here at home compared to the road. Tonight they're going up against Logan Allen, who had looked good in his first two starts before a shaky one on July 1st vs. San Francisco. I think he'll be fine here against a Marlins lineup that produced only 2 runs in each of its last two games. 

San Diego has seen the Under hit in six of its last seven contests w/ them failing to score more than five runs in any of those contests. They've crossed the plate just 21 times during that stretch, so this is an ideal matchup for Yamamoto, who hasn't allowed any runs in three of his five starts so far. The only drawback for the Marlins here seems to be their anemic offense as the Padres have done a good job at limiting runs recently, giving up only 34 in those L7 games. The Under is also 6-2-1 in Miami's last nine overall. 8* Under Padres/Marlins

8* Under Braves/Brewers (8:10 ET): Other than the Dodgers (who were our *10* Game of the Week last night!), I'm not sure who else is all that good in the National League. Atlanta would probably like to lay claim to being the Senior Circuit's 2nd best ballclub, but I'm forecasting a fairly mediocre second half of the season for them. Now that may be enough to make the playoffs or even win their division. As for the Brewers, they fancy themselves as contenders, but have been outscored this season and dropped seven of their last 10 games. I'm on the Under in this series opener. 

The Braves are a team known for their offensive prowess, but like most teams they score fewer runs on the road. Their second half began w/ a sweep out in San Diego where they scored 16 runs in three games. But don't discount the effect of moving West to East for this next series. As for limiting their opponent's offense tonight, Max Fried may not seem like an ideal candidate given his recent string of performances. However, be aware that back in May Fried held the Brew Crew scoreless for six innings of two-hit ball. He won't have to face Ryan Braun tonight either as Braun is out of the Milwaukee lineup so that he can attend the funeral of a friend. 

Today will be a "bullpen day" for the Brewers with Adam Houser opening. Considering how poorly Milwaukee relievers performed in the last series (vs. SF) and how Houser has looked, again, this may not seem like an ideal setup for an Under. However, I look for Brewers pitching to be better here than it was over the weekend against the Giants. The Under is 41-19-2 their L62 games vs. an opponent w/ a win percentage of .600 or greater. 8* Under Braves/Brewers

10* Over Tigers/Indians (7:10 ET): The Indians were able to at least salvage one win in their three-game set w/ the 1st place Twins, winning Sunday by a score of 4-3. This figures to be an easier series as they've already taken eight of nine from the last place Tigers this season. As I had previously projected, the bottom has really fallen out w/ this Detroit ballclub as they've dropped 16 of the last 19 games. But they too won Sunday, achieving a season-high in both runs scored (12) and hits (19) in avoiding a sweep at Kansas City. I've got this game going Over the total. 

The Tigers have scored the fewest runs in all of the American League, which has led to them now having the second worst run differential in all of baseball (-159). But they give up their fair share as well, which is why they're now 30 games below .500. Monday's starter Daniel Norris gave up six runs in his last start just as he did the last time he faced Cleveland. The Indians have scored 62 runs in the nine games so far against the Tigers, an average of nearly 7.0 per game. Norris has a 4.37 ERA in nine previous starts vs. Cleveland and is winless his L10 starts overall (0-6). The Over is 7-2 in Detroit's last nine games. 

Adam Plutko has been a bit of a surprise in the Indians' rotation, but he doesn't go very deep into games and has had some bad outings. He allowed 2 HR's when he faced the Tigers in Detroit last month. He's been used as both a starter and reliever this season and the last time we saw him was June 28th, a game the Indians lost 13-0 (to Baltimore!). Plutko allowed five runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 IP that day.  While every game in the Minnesota series stayed Under, the Over is 36-14-2 the L52 times the Indians have played host to the Tigers. 10* Over Tigers/Indians

10* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): Though they've certainly had their share of issues beating the Red Sox, the Dodgers are the better team this year. They look to be an extraordinary value Sunday night w/ Hyun-Jin Ryu starting. Ryu was arguably the top starter in all of baseball in the first half, earning him starting honors for the National League in Tuesday's Midsummer Classic. After going down in just five games in LY's World Series and dropping Friday's opener 8-1, the Dodgers got the best of the Red Sox last night, winning 11-2. Behind Ryu, they make it two in a row tonight and take the series.

Ryu's numbers from the first half were just incredible. He has a MLB-best 1.73 ERA in 17 starts as well as a 0.908 WHIP. Save for one bad start at the most hitter-friendly park in the game (Coors Field), Ryu has allowed 2 ER or fewer in EVERY start this season! His 1st half concluded with six shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Padres. While pitching at Fenway will present a greater challenge than most of his starts (there's a DH too), Ryu should be up for it. Something else to consider here is that Boston is now just 1-7 this season at home when they are priced between +125 and -125.

David Price came out on the winning end of Game 2 of LY's World Series opposite Ryu and has emerged as the de facto ace of the Red Sox starting rotation this year, primarily due to the surprising struggles of yesterday's loser Chris Sale. There's no denying that Price has pitched well in his own right; he's just not been as good as Ryu. Nor have the Red Sox been as good as the Dodgers in 2019. LA has not only the best record (61-33) in all of baseball, they also have the best run differential (+131). Boston actually has a losing record at Fenway (21-23) this year and is just +56 in run differential. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Under White Sox/A's (4:07 ET): Oakland has taken the first two games of this three-game set and is heavily favored to make it a three-game sweep. Given that, it's highly unlikely that we'll be playing a full nine innings here as the home team figures to have the lead going into the ninth inning. While certainly not guaranteed, I'll work on that assumption here. The White Sox might only be four games below .500 entering Sunday, but don't let that fool you into thinking they've been all that competitive. Their YTD run differential is actually -86, which is bottom five in all of baseball. They've managed only three runs so far in this series and are 28th in runs scored. Take the Under. 

Of course, while not likely, there's always a chance Chicago wins this game. It doesn't look good though after they gave up 13 runs to the A's yday. But I don't think they'll be giving up anywhere close to that number this afternoon. It was a seven-run 1st inning by Oakland that really put the White Sox behind the proverbial "8-ball" yesterday. The Chicago bullpen was actually fine. That's good news in case if Sunday's starter Reynaldo Lopez were to falter. But I don't think that he will considering Lopez has allowed 3 ER or less in his last three starts away from home. 

No matter who wins or how much Oakland is limited offensively today, Under remains the clear call. The White Sox simply have not been able to do anything offensively in this series. Both runs yday came against Oakland reliever Blake Treinen. That came on the heels of them scoring just once on five hits in Friday's opener. A's starter Brett Anderson looked very good in his L2 starts before the All-Star Break, giving up only two runs on seven hits in 14 IP. Oakland is allowing only 3.9 runs per game at home this year, which is one of the lowest marks in all of baseball. It would be nice if we avoid the bottom of the ninth here, but either way this shapes up as a low-scoring game. 8* Under White Sox/A's

8* Under Reds/Rockies (3:10 ET): So we know what happened here yesterday. Despite a very high number (14.0!), my Total of the Week was on the Over. The Reds & Rockies ended up combining for 26 runs (Reds won 17-9), which makes it six weeks in a row that I've won my Total of the Week in MLB. But for Sunday, I'm actually taking the Under. It's not like an Under would be w/o precedent. Friday's series opener was a 3-2 Colorado win and today's starting pitching matchup looks to be a lot more promising than yday's. Take the Under. 

The scoring came early and often Saturday night, perhaps a byproduct of a 3+ hour rain delay affecting the respective starters. Cincinnati's Tanner Roark gave up four runs in the 1st inning and was pulled after 4 2/3 after allowing 7 runs and 13 hits. Colorado's Kyle Freeland was no better, giving up five runs and nine hits in just four innings. The Reds had not one, but two five-run innings last night, enabling them to rally from the early 4-0 hole. Overall, the teams combined for not only 26 runs, but also 39 hits. For many reasons, I don't think we'll be seeing anything close to that kind of offensive outburst today. 

Now the Reds' Tyler Mahle has not won on the road all year. He has an 0-10 TSR and it's not like his individual numbers have been good. But they haven't been particularly bad either and despite pitching in Coors, I think he can somewhat limit the damage. Since the start of May, Mahle hasn't allowed more than 4 ER in any start. Remember than Sonny Gray pitched surprisingly well here on Friday for the visitors, who have allowed the fewest number of runs in the NL. Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela went 4-1 in June w/ a 3.44 ERA. He's allowed 2 ER or less in six of his last eight outings. 8* Under Reds/Rockies 

6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets finally beat the Marlins yday, 4-2, thanks to a tiebreaking two-run HR from Robinson Cano. They also got seven strong innings from Noah Syndergaard. They should again beat their division rival on Sunday as Jacob deGrom is starting. If you look at the early line movement for today's matchup, I think you'd agree that this number was set far too low. The thing is while the Mets had lost four in a row to the Marlins (prior to yday's win), they'd actually taken the season's first five head to head matchups. deGrom looks like a lock today. Take the Mets. 

Somehow, the Mets have gone 19-31 w/ deGrom starting the L2 seasons. To call that "head-scratching" would be a mild understatement. deGrom won the Cy Young last year in spite of his team, but this year has somehow shaped up as even more disappointing as the Mets are just 5-13 in his starts. But deGrom continues to pitch relatively well. His numbers may not be as good as they were last year, but he still sports a 2.68 ERA and 0.979 WHIP over his last seven starts, all quality ones. He's allowed 3 ER or less NINE straight times, including a strong effort vs. Philly (gave up just two runs on three hits in seven innings) in his last start before the All-Star Break. 

In the last series between these teams (back in May), which ended up being a 3-game Miami sweep, Sandy Alcantara tossed a complete game shutout. But don't let that fool you. It was easily Alcantara's best start of the season as he still has a 1.401 WHIP in 2019. The Marlins are just 6-11 when he starts, including 2-7 here at home. Alcantara's margin for error here is very small as Miami has the lowest scoring lineup in the entire National League set to face deGrom, who is long overdue for a win. 6* NY Mets

10* Over Reds/Rockies (8:10 ET): It was a rare low-scoring game last night here at Coors Field w/ the host Rockies prevailing 3-2 over the Reds. You have to remember that over the first half of the season, Colorado both scored and allowed 6.9 runs per game. The Reds bring the NL's top pitching staff (in terms of # of runs allowed) to Denver this weekend, but Saturday starter Tanner Roark is not a big reason why they are leading in that department. Meanwhile, Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has REALLY been struggling this year. So I expect the balls to resume flying tonight here at Coors and I'm on the Over. 

We know there's a major difference between the Rockies' offense on the road and here at home. It's been that way for the franchise's entire existence. But even by that quarter century standard, 2019 is shaping up to be one of the sharpest home vs. road splits ever. On the road, the Rockies are averaging just 4.2 runs per game. It's a 2.6 rpg jump here at home. Thus, it was pretty impressive to see the Reds hold them to only three runs last night. But w/ Roark allowing 3 HRs his last time out, I don't see him keeping this lineup down for a 2nd straight day. 

Of course, the effect Coors has on Colorado's pitchers is just as pronounced as what's felt by the hitters. Kyle Freeland knows all about this. He has a 9.31 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in six starts here this season. Things got so bad for Freeland that he had to spend the last six weeks in the minors to figure things out. It was a terrible May for him w/ a 10.17 ERA in six starts and he allowed 11 HR's. All six starts happened to go Over the total. Freeland has a 6.11 ERA in three previous starts against Cincinnati, so there's no reason to expect him to pitch any better tonight. This should be a really high scoring game. 10* Over Reds/Rockies

8* Aspen Ladd (11:59 ET):  This is the main event of the evening, a women's bantamweight (145 lbs) fight scheduled for five rounds. Ladd comes in undefeated (8-0) and is poised to emerge as the top contender for the title at 145 lbs, a belt once held by her opponent, Germaine de Randamie. So far, the odds on Ladd have moved considerably and looking back at her last several fights, it's easy to understand why. Not only is she unbeaten, but six of her eight wins have come via stoppage. This one shouldn't make it to the cards either, but regardless if it does or not, I'm hitching my wagon to a Ladd win. 

De Randamie was once the champ at 145 lbs and never actually lost the belt. After beating Holly Holm to win the title, de Randamie elected to vacate rather than fight Cris 'Cyborg' Santos as she was dealing w/ a hand injury at the time. Her only fight in the last 28 months came in November and was a decision victory over Raquel Pennington. While her last loss came all the way back in 2013 (Amanda Nunes), that's a little misleading seeing as she's fought all of six times in the last six years. I think it's fair to question just how motivated she is at this point to get back to top contender status. 

Styles make fights and de Randamie doesn't exactly have the most exciting style. Ladd doesn't exactly have a defined style of fighting, but she has shown an aggressive side that should hopefully show here and lead to her controlling the fight from start to end. Ladd does probably take too much punishment at times, but unless she were to fall victim to some sort of shocking knockout here, she is likely to overpower her weaker opponent and grind out a ninth straight victory to open here pro career. 8* Aspen Ladd 

8* Under Dodgers/Red Sox (7:15 ET): So, it was an all-too familiar result for the Dodgers last night here in Fenway Park. They lost to the Red Sox 8-1, reminiscent of last year's World Series, which saw them eliminated in just five games. They're now 1-6 all-time in regular season games here in Boston, plus the two losses in LY's Fall Classic. Now on a four-game losing streak overall, their longest losing skid since April, the Dodgers will try and be better under the bright lights of FOX for tonight's nationally televised contest. But, unfortunately, I see some of the issues persisting for them. Take the Under here. 

Despite adding a DH to a lineup that already averages a healthy number (5.2) of runs per game, LA could do little offensively against Eduardo Rodriguez, who struck out 10 and allowed just five hits in 7 IP. Tonight, the Dodgers will have to go up against Chris Sale. While this may not be a banner season (so far) for Sale, he is still a pitcher to be respected. A 1.075 WHIP for the year shows me that he's pitched better than most realize and the Under is 6-0 the L6 times he's pitched against a team w/ a winning record. (I shouldn't have to mention that the Dodgers are 60-33 entering Saturday). 

The Dodgers' surprising lack of scoring here in Boston isn't just confined to last night. They scored just six runs in the two losses here in LY's WS. They've now scored only seven runs total during their four-game losing streak. Trying to help them out of this hole will be Saturday starter Ross Stripling, who has seen the Under go 6-0-1 in his previous seven starts. Stripling has a bit of an extended history of Unders as well; his last 24 road starts have seen an Under mark of 16-5-3 while he's also 12-2-2 the L16 times he's started on 5+ days rest. 8* Under Dodgers/Red Sox

10* Over Calgary/Hamilton (7:00 ET): Last week saw the Stampeders (Calgary) show reports of their demise were pretty premature as they went to Saskatchewan and handed the Roughriders a 37-10 beatdown. It was easily the Stamps' best defensive performance of the season as they'd given up 32 points in each of the first two games. They're now also averaging a healthy 33.7 points per game on offense. Matched up this week w/ high-flying Hamilton (39.2 PPG), you'd expect the points to keep coming Saturday night and I agree as I'm on the Over here. 

You also have to think the Ti-Cats are going to be in an ornery mood this week after being dealt their first loss of the season last week. It came to Montreal of all teams, 36-29, as a 12.5-pt road favorite. The Ti-Cats had opened the year 3-0, scoring 64 and 41 points in two of the wins, so a return home should lead to an obvious increase in points this week. Hamilton is widely expected to runaway w/ the East Division this year as they're the lone team of the four that came into 2019 settled at the QB position. Jeremiah Masoli  threw for 5,209 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. Through four games this year, he's well on his way to another stellar campaign. 

Calgary is one of four teams in the league that has already had to turn to a backup QB. But filling in for Bo Levi Mitchell, Nick Arbuckle's starting debut could not have gone any better last week. Arbuckle has completed 90% of his pass attempts since coming in for an injured Mitchell in the comeback win over B.C. two weeks ago. So both offenses should score. The difference is I see the Stampeders defense reverting back to the form of the first two games. Hamilton gave up 36 pts LW to a poor Montreal team and this will be the best offense they have faced so far this season. 10* Over Calgary/Hamilton

7* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Though the NL Central remains a crowded race (all 5 teams still alive!), the Cubs are simply a much better team than the Pirates. That's reflected in the odds here, but I have zero hesitation taking the Cubs in this price range. They took Friday's opener, 4-3, despite blowing a three-run lead and that may end up being the Pirates' best chance to steal a game in this series. Yes, the Bucs did take three of four last weekend from the Cubbies. But that was at PNC Park. Here at the Friendly Confines of Wrigley, the home team is 30-16 and holding visitors to 3.8 rpg (2nd fewest in the league). Like I said earlier, zero hesitation in backing the Cubs this afternoon. 

Everyone else in the division lost yday, so the Cubs now have a 1.5-game lead on the field. They're 3.5 games ahead of the Pirates, but that's misleading considering the Cubs have outscored opponents by 56 runs this year (3rd best in NL) while the Pirates are looking at a -37 run differential (tied for 4th worst). The Cubs are now 16-5 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season and will send Jon Lester to the bump Saturday afternoon. Lester has a 7-2 TSR w/ a 2.42 ERA at home this season and the Pirates are a team he's generally pitched well against in his career (3.12 ERA in 19 starts).

Pittsburgh goes w/ Jordan Lyles, who was not pitching well before the Break. He has a 9.00 ERA and 2.077 WHIP his L3 starts after giving up seven runs to the Cubs on July 4th. Regulars may recall that I played against the Lyles & the Pirates that day and the result was the team's only loss of that series (11-3). Lyles allowed 3 HR's in the loss and has now allowed at least one long ball in five straight outing. The Pirates have been a pure fade on my end for the last several weeks and that's unlikely to change in the 2nd half. 7* Chi Cubs

7* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Perhaps the All-Star Break came at the WRONG time for the Giants considering they'd won six of seven. That has them over .500 since June 1st, but this is still a last place team w/ a lot of holes and the second worst run differential (-70) in the National League. They've been pretty fortunate to go 18-9 in one-run games so far, the 2nd best record in that situation, behind only division rival San Diego. Milwaukee may have limped into the Break having lost five of six, but they are the better team here and priced accordingly. 

Almost everyone is alive in the NL Wild Card hunt and you can count the Brewers among those on the list. The Brew Crew were actually leading the NL Central before skidding into the Break. This despite a negative run differential on the year. But now they're back at Miller Park where they own a 27-18 record. Chase Anderson gets the nod Friday and he has pitched well in five of his six starts this year, including a quality effort in San Francisco back on June 16th. That was the Brewers only win in that series, but you should expect a better result after this weekend has concluded. 

Another Anderson will start here for SF, that being Shaun, who has a high WHIP. This Anderson lasted all of four innings his last time out and gave up four runs. The Giants still won the game, 7-5 over Arizona, but don't credit the starting pitching there. Anderson has allowed between 2 and 4 ER in all 10 of his starts this year. His counterpart has a 3.00 ERA his L3 starts, having allowed just 5 runs in 15 IP. To me, Milwaukee is simply the better team here. They're at home and the Giants likely lost "momentum" by the Break coming at an inopportune time. The Giants are 53-112 their L165 road games vs. a team w/ a winning record. 7* Milwaukee

8* Under Astros/Rangers (8:05 ET): It was not the return from the Break that the Astros were looking for last night as they were blanked by the Rangers 5-0. For Texas, it was sweet revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered back in May. That was up in Houston though. While the Rangers are potent offensively, particularly in their home ballpark, tonight they're up against Gerrit Cole, which means they're likely to struggle to score runs. But Jesse Chavez has proven to be a worthy adversary for Cole, so like last night I see this one staying Under the total. 

Cole needs little introduction as he's one of the top starters in the game. He comes in sporting a 0.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which were Houston wins and stayed Under. In fact, his L4 starts have all been Houston wins & Under as Cole has allowed a total of just three runs in 26 IP during that time. The last time he faced Texas, Cole struck out 12 and allowed just one run and four hits over six innings. There was a bad start earlier this year here in Arlington, but considering how he's pitched recently, I'd expect Cole to be at the top of his game here. 

The Astros couldn't score yday against Lance Lynn, even though their lineup is now healthier than it's been in some time. Chavez has made seven starts this year, though somehow only one has been here at Globe Life Park. It came in May, back when he was being used as an "opener." Chavez allowed no runs in that role and then his first time as a traditional starter saw him give up just one unearned run against the Tigers. The last two starts before the Break weren't quite as good, but don't be surprised if he comes up big tonight. The Under is 19-9 in the Rangers' last 28 home games. 8* Under Astros/Rangers

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): So this is a revenge spot for New York. Back in May, they were swept in embarrassing fashion down here in Miami (shutout twice). Overall, it's been yet another wildly disappointing season in Queens as the Metropolitans are 10 games below .500 and went into the All Star Break as losers of 9 of their last 12. But based on the revenge angle alone, they are worth a look here as they are a better team than Miami, who is last in the NL East and last in runs scored in the entire National League. Despite the sweep back in May, the Mets are 5-3 against the Marlins this season and hold a 40-28 edge in runs scored in those eight head to head meetings. 

The Mets will go w/ Jason Vargas as the starter to open the 2nd half. He's had plenty of recent success against Miami, beating them three times since the start of last season. He's got a 3.27 ERA in four career starts against them. As I already stated, Miami is the NL's lowest scoring team at just 3.5 rpg. They went into the Break averaging only 2.7 over the L7 games. Vargas has yet to allow more than 4 ER in any start this year and has allowed more than 3 ER only one time and that was back in April. The Marlins have been unable to score more than two runs off Vargas the L3 times they've faced him. 

While Miami's Caleb Smith has pitched a lot better here at home than he has on the road, I still expect him to struggle some this evening. It was a successful return (sort of) for Smith as he started last week for the first time since spending a month on the DL. He gave up four runs in six innings, but the Marlins still managed to beat the Braves 5-4 as a big underdog. But the home run ball remains an issue for Smith as he gave up a pair vs. Atlanta and has now allowed seven in his L3 starts overall. Smith was a loser the only other time he faced the Mets this year. 8* NY Mets

10* Washington (6:05 ET): The last time these NL East rivals faced off was last month and the Nationals swept the three-game series. It was in D.C. and the Nats won by scores of 2-0, 6-2 and 7-4. That's pretty indicative of how the last month or so has gone for each team. Washington, who I said would be one of the more improved teams this season, has gone 28-11 since May 24th to move into Wild Card position. The Phillies still occupy the 2nd WC spot, but they have gone just 14-21 their L35 games. Unfortunately for Philly, I see more of the same to open the second half of the season.

It wasn't necessarily a popular take to say the Nats would improve in 2019. After all, they lost Bryce Harper to the Phillies. But Harper has been overrated for some time now and is having a very disappointing campaign so far in the City of Brotherly Love. While he has the team lead in RBI's (62), Harper failed to make the All-Star team and has struck out 105 times (4th most) while batting just .253. Meanwhile, the Nationals actually scored more runs in the 1st half this year than they did in the 1H of 2018 w/ Harper in their lineup.

Stephen Strasburg starting Friday's opener is perhaps the biggest reason to like Washington in this spot. Not only has he won his L3 starts overall as well as going 7-1 his L9, but he's 12-2 (2.52 ERA) in 25 previous turns vs. the Phillies. His last start before the Break saw Strasburg strike out a season-high 14 batters while allowing just two hits in 7+ scoreless frames. Unfortunately for the Phillies, Nick Pivetta hasn't been anywhere near as sharp of late nor does he usually perform well vs. Washington. Winless over his last four outings (7.33 ERA), Pivetta is also 1-6 all-time vs. the Nats w/ a 10.80 ERA. He's 0-2 against them this season, both disastrous performances, as he's allowed 13 runs in 9 IP. 10* Washington

8* Over Nationals/Phillies (6:05 ET): Full disclosure - I also like the Nats in this game. But I like it to go Over as well as Washington should certainly be able to "tee off" at the expense of struggling Phillies starter Nick Pivetta. Not only has Pivetta been bad lately, as he's winless over his last four starts (7.33 ERA), but in addition to that the Nats have had his number. Pivetta is 1-6 all-time vs. Washington w/ a 10.80 ERA. That includes two disastrous performances this season where he's given up a total of 13 runs in 9 IP. Like I said at the outset, this one seems destined to go Over. 

The Nationals went into the All-Star Break having won 28 of their last 39 games and are now the top Wild Card team in the National League. It's a far cry from when the team was 19-31 and really floundering. But as I anticipated, things have really improved in the Nation's Capital and it doesn't seem like they miss the overrated Bryce Harper (who, of course, now plays for the Phillies) at all. The Nats actually scored more runs in the 1st Half this year than they did LY w/ Harper in the lineup. More good news, for this game, is that they also have a higher rpg average on the road than at home. 

Philly averages 5.2 rpg at home, so even though they typically struggle against Stephen Strasburg, I wouldn't expect them to be shutout tonight. But the real key here is Washington getting to Pivetta, who has really struggled all season, but moreso recently. There have been three times so far where Pivetta has allowed 6+ ER. One was at Coors Field, the other two were against the Nationals. He's also given up at least four runs in four consecutive starts and not made it a full six innings in any of the last three. 8* Over Nationals/Phillies

10* Mexico (9:00 ET): I think it's great to be able to grab Mexico at "plus money" for Sunday's Gold Cup Final against the United States. This is the final pairing almost everyone had hoped for and expected. It takes place at Soldier Field in Chicago. This is the fifth time these teams have met in the Gold Cup Final. Mexico holds a 4-2 head to head advantage in all previous Gold Cup encounters. They have outscored the U.S. 138-80 all-time head to head w/ a decided 34-19-15 edge in results. They are the play Sunday night

Mexico has needed more than 90 minutes to advance past the last two stages, which I think is what is giving us such great value here on El Tri. In the quarterfinals, they had to go to penalty kicks to beat Costa Rica and the semis vs. upstart Haiti saw them score the game's lone goal in the 93rd minutes. So it's been a harrowing road to get here, but I would not go underestimating this side. Eight different players have found the back of the net for them in this tournament.

The U.S. has gotten exemplary play out of Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie, who have combined to score five of the team's 13 goals so far. This is a young American team w/ many of the players taking part in the Gold Cup (and this rivalry vs. Mexico) for the very first time. After being held scoreless for 90 minutes in each of the last two rounds, I look for El Tri to "break out" in this final game. 10* Mexico

10* Under Rockies/D'backs (4:10 ET): I've certainly had my "finger on the pulse" of this series in taking Arizona and the Under the L2 days. Both plays were winners as the D'backs have won 8-0 and 4-2. For today's finale, I'll come back w/ the Under as my view of the two teams hasn't changed one iota. The home vs. road splits for both teams are quite drastic with Arizona being shockingly much weaker offensively here at Chase Field. Meanwhile, Colorado's identity for the last quarter century has been marked by a large offensive decline outside Coors Field. 

We know the Rockies offense is going to decline when they leave Coors Field. But the drop they are experiencing this season is as dramatic as ever. While they continue to lead all of baseball in runs scored at home (6.9 per game!), they are averaging only 4.3 rpg on the road. Having scored all of two runs in the first two games in this series, there's little reason to expect much offense from them today. As for the D'backs, they average only 4.5 rpg at home compared to 5.6 rpg on the road, which is just plain odd. The L7 games overall have seen them top 4 runs only once.

It's not just that the Colorado offensive nosedives away from Coors Field, their pitching also gets much better. Today's starter German Marquez is a fine example of this as he has a 0.857 WHIP on the road. He's also a strikeout machine w/ a 120-27 KW rate this year. Marquez will need to be at his best here as the Rockies are dead last in MLB in both batting average and OPS on the road. The top four hitters in the lineup have gone 4 for 28 w/ 12 K's in this series. Today they're up against Alex Young, who has made just one big league start previous to this, back on 6.27 and he held the Giants to one run and three hits in 5 IP. So I expect him to pitch well here. 10* Under Rockies/D'backs

8* Under Cardinals/Giants (4:05 ET): San Francisco beat St. Louis last night, 8-4, thus going Over for a sixth straight games (7-0-1 Over L8). This is highly irregular for a club that ranks 27th in MLB in runs scored as well as 30th (last) in team batting average and 28th in OPS. For the year, they're averaging only 3.4 runs per game at home, which is substantially less than the 5.0 rpg they average on the road. I sense this final game before the All-Star Break is set to be lower scoring than anticipated as it's only a matter of time before the Giants' offense comes back down to Earth. Take the Under. 

Now neither starting pitcher for today's game has great numbers. But San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija comes in off a strong outing, one in which he allowed only two runs in eight innings. That was in San Diego as the Giants ended up rolling to a 13-2 victory. It was one of three straight games where SF scored 10 or more runs and they've scored at least seven in five of the last six games. Again, this is highly irregular production for a team not known for putting runs on the board. There have been two times previous to this where the Giants have gone Over in six straight games. They've gone Under the next game both times, scoring just two runs total in those games. 

Another positive for Samardzija is that he's held St. Louis' best hitter (Paul Goldschmidt) to a .229 average the 35 times he's faced him. As for keeping the Giants' suddenly surging offense in check, that falls on Jack Flaherty, who has struggled of late. But his last two starts were both against American League lineups. The last time Flaherty faced a NL lineup was 6.18 vs. Miami and he allowed just three runs in 7 IP. The Marlins' offensive numbers are actually quite similar to those of the Giants. The Under is 6-2-1 the L9 times St. Louis has been off a loss. 8* Under Cardinals/Giants

8* Chi Cubs (2:10 ET): I took the Cubs yday as my biggest play of the 1st half of the MLB season and they delivered just as expected, beating the White Sox 6-3. The only reason we were able to get such a great price on the North Side contingent was due to the presence of Lucas Giolito on the mound for the White Sox. Having now beaten him, the Cubbies will have a far easier time today going against Ivan Nova, who has been very poor at home this season. A lot of the rationale for playing the Cubs Sunday will be similar to yday, only this time we're going against a much weaker starting pitcher! 

As noted in yday's analysis, I am incredibly bearish on the White Sox moving forward. While it's surprising to see them within three games of .500, the fact is that they've been outscored this season by 73 runs. There's a big difference between their actual & expected number of wins, the latter based around their run differential. In terms of exceeding expected win total, the White Sox' gap is actually the largest in all of baseball. As for the Cubs, they are now 32-15 their L47 Interleague games and averaging a healthy 5.4 rpg on the road. With a DH at their disposal for this game, they should have little difficulty knocking around Nova. 

Nova is 0-4 in his seven home starts this year w/ an 8.31 ERA and 1.731 WHIP. The Cubs have a little revenge on their minds here as Nova beat them at Wrigley back on June 18th. But you can certainly expect a different outcome today as the Cubs look to go into the All-Star Break in first place in the NL Central. They'll give the baseball to Kyle Hendricks, who looked fine on Tuesday in his return from the DL. Hendricks has a 10-2 TSR when starting on exactly four days rest. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Under Indians/Reds (1:10 ET): All things considered, it's been a pretty frustrating first half for the Reds. While they're only 4.5 games out of first place in the (very) crowded NL Central, the fact is their WL record "should" be better as they've actually outscored opponents by 37 runs due to having allowed the fewest # of runs in the entire Senior Circuit. You'd think that would serve them well in a battle w/ an American League team that often struggles to score runs and is w/o its DH. But Cleveland won here yday, 7-2. I'm going with the Under on Sunday as this should be a lower-scoring game. 

While facing a 6.5-game deficit in the AL Central is NOT what the Indians expected coming into the year, the first half can't be viewed as all that disappointing given the injuries that were sustained and the lack of hitting. I say that because they're still 11 games over .500 and on a five-game win streak entering Sunday. They've allowed the third fewest number of runs in the American League and send Trevor Bauer to the mound today. Bauer hasn't been as good as he was last season, but he rarely has B2B poor outings and last time out he gave up 5 ER in a game Cleveland still won. He actually has a much lower ERA on the road than at home this year. 

The Reds had posted B2B shutouts prior to yday's loss. This has been an Under team all the way this season w/ a 53-29-4 mark in that direction. That's by far and away the most Unders of any team in baseball. (Cleveland is #3). Tyler Mahle starts here for the Reds and the Under is 11-4-1 in his 16 starts. Mahle has allowed six or less hits in 10 of his last 11 starts. Again, the Indians are not a high-scoring bunch. The only AL teams averaging fewer runs per game are: Baltimore, Chicago, KC and Detroit. Not having a DH here makes the lineup even weaker. 8* Under Indians/Reds

7* Luke Rockhold (10:35 ET): This is a Light Heavyweight bout (205 lbs), set for three rounds in Vegas Saturday night. It pits Rockhold, the former champion at 185 lbs (Middleweight), against the very inconsistent Polish fighter Jan Blachowicz. Rockhold's chin has become the center of debate since losing the MW title in shocking fashion to Michael Bisping three years ago. He was KO'd in his last fight, which took place some 18 months ago, by Yoel Romero. But in between the two losses, he did stop David Branch in a headline fight. I believe Rockhold still has a lot left in the tank. 

At one point, Blachowicz had lost four of five fights in the UFC. He was able to turn things around w/ four straight victories, but finds himself off a loss to Thiago Santos, who will be headlining this card against Jon Jones. He was TKO'd by Santos back in February, which was just the third time he'd been stopped in 32 career fights and the first in almost eight years. It was also his first ever loss by TKO or KO. So maybe his chin is a concern here too. 

This is Rockhold's debut at 205, so the former titlist will have something to prove. The change in weight class has been expected for awhile now. Rockhold was considered "big" for a MW, an advantage that's now gone at LHW, having been out for so long, he's had adequate time to prepare. I believe the price is selling Rockhold short, believe it or not, and will call for him to get his hand raised in this one. 7* Luke Rockhold

8* Under Rockies/D'backs (10:10 ET): I had my finger on the pulse of this matchup yesterday, taking Arizona in what ended up being an 8-0 shutout. It was a big revenge spot for the D'backs as they'd previously been swept here at Chase Field by the Rockies last month. But as I was quick to point out in yday's analysis, the D'backs are a better team than they're being given credit for. That's seemingly confirmed by a YTD run differential of +49, which is actually 4th best overall in the NL. Meanwhile, it remains difficult to trust the Rockies outside of Coors Field for a number of reasons. The most obvious is the drastic decline in offense they experience, which is why I'll be going w/ the Under here.

I'll take this right from yday's analysis - "Of course, the Rockies home vs. road splits have been well-defined throughout the franchise's quarter-century existence. We know the offense is going to decline when they leave Coors Field. But the drop they are experiencing this season is as dramatic as ever. While they continue to lead all of baseball in runs scored at home (6.9 per game!), that average drops all the way to 4.4 rpg on the road." They were obviously shutout Friday, so that runs per game average dropped and they're now down to 4.3. 

While Colorado's home vs. road splits are pretty dramatic, a team playing worse on the road isn't that all uncommon. Arizona's splits are thus a little more head-scratching as they average only 4.5 rpg at home compared to 5.6 on the road. I don't see them scoring as many runs here as they did last night as Rockies starter Jon Gray has been solid of late w/ a 1.45 ERA his L3 starts. Gray is 6-1 his L8 starts and has a 2.38 ERA in a pair of outings vs. Arizona this season. I do expect Colorado's offense to struggle again, however. D'backs starter Robbie Ray has a very good strikeout rate (129 K's in 98 2/3 IP) and turned in a quality start vs. the Rockies the last time they came calling to Chase Field. 8* Under Rockies/D'backs

10* Saskatchewan (10:00 ET): Those well versed in CFL betting know that fading Calgary is something you didn't often do, even when the Stampeders were being asked to lay a big number. The Stamps have dominated this league the past several seasons, but a loss in LY's Grey Cup followed by a mass exodus of talent in the offseason have left them a shell of their former selves. The latest setback may be the biggest one of all as last week saw QB Bo Levi Mitchell go down w/ an "upper-body injury" that has landed him on the six-week injury list. I have no hesitation here in laying a short number to the Stamps in their first road game of 2019.

Despite the Mitchell injury, Calgary was able to come from behind and pull out a miraculous victory last week at BC. But the way they started the game probably doesn't speak well to the future. They were down 21-1 at one point (at home!) and trailed 32-21 in the fourth quarter. Mitchell's replacement, Nick Arbuckle, came in and delivered a stunning performance in relief by completing all nine pass attempts, two for touchdowns. But I wouldn't look for a repeat of that here against a stingy Roughriders defense. It's now a hostile environment for the Stampeders playing a team that smells "blood in the water."

Saskatchewan was my top side last week as well as they rolled Toronto 32-7 in the Mosiac Stadium opener. They rolled up 522 yds of total offense while allowing the Argos to gain only 314. Despite being 1-2, the Roughriders have outgained all three of their opponents this year. They have their own injury at QB (Zach Collaros out), but Cody Fajardo has come in and proved himself, leading the offense to 73 points in two starts. Expect the Roughriders' defense to do its job here as well. They face a Calgary offense that has run for just 73 yds this year, a big reason why the Stamps have been outgained in both games. Remember Saskatchewan won the season series from Calgary last year and that was a much better Stampeders team. 10* Saskatchewan

8* NY Mets (7:15 ET): The Mets have now lost five in a row to Phillies despite having the lead in all five games. The dubious achievement stretches back to a four-game sweep last week in Philly. Last night's setback was especially painful as it came despite the presence of Jacob deGom on the hill and a 2-1 lead entering the 7th. (Plus, *I* was on the Mets). The Phils struck for five runs in the top of the ninth against the Mets' much maligned bullpen. Tonight it's Noah Syndergaard's turn to try and turn the tide and I'm gonna ride him as the Mets are well overdue for a win in this NL East rivalry. 

Syndergaard returned from the disabled list this past Sunday and led his team to a rare win, 8-5 over the red hot Braves, by allowing just three runs in 5 2/3 IP. I know it may seem like "playing with fire" taking the Mets, given their current state and the bullpen woes. But deGrom was able to hold the Phillies' lineup to just three hits in seven innings last night and I believe Syndergaard is more than capable of doing the same. The Mets did beat the Phillies in Syndergaard's only previous start against them this season (back on 4.15) and that was w/ him not even at his best. He did have nine strikeouts in that game, which is a season-high. 

The Phillies have obviously been extremely fortunate to go 5-0 against the Mets over the last week or so. Otherwise, they are just 4-15 since June 9th. The Mets are one of only two teams in the NL with a worse overall record the last month. The Phillies still have a losing road record on the year and are 3-10 when priced between +125 and +175. The Mets still have a winning home record (22-18) and should find success against Jake Arrieta, who allowed five runs against them back on June 25th. Arrieta followed that start up by allowing four more runs in six innings last Saturday at Miami, who is the National League's lowest scoring team. 8* NY Mets

10* Chi Cubs (7:15 ET): This is a matchup that caught my eye a couple days ago when I was peeking ahead to the weekend MLB slate. I figured that we'd be able to get a more than fair price on the Cubs, Chicago's superior ballclub, due to Lucas Giolito being on the mound for the White Sox. Despite Giolito's exploits, I remain incredible bearish on the Southside contingent. Despite being two games within .500, they have been outscored by 70 runs over the course of the season. The Cubs are better than what they've shown lately and this is an incredible spot to take them. 

I went w/ the Cubs on Thursday as they won for me 11-3 over Pittsburgh. It was a much needed result for the Cubbies as they'd dropped the three previous games in that series as well as six of their last eight overall. But now I believe they're set to head into the All-Star Break w/ some "momentum." Jon Lester gets the start tonight and he came out on the winning end against Giolito back on June 19th. Including that start, Lester has a 3.11 ERA and 1.153 WHIP his L3 trips to the mound. He is 10-6 in 18 career starts against the White Sox and has a 7-1 TSR his L8 interleague starts.

As a team, the Cubs have consistently handled their business against the American League, going 31-15 their L46 IL games. They are also 6-2 following an off-day. They certainly handled their business against Giolito the first time they saw him this season. They scored six times off him in just 4 1/3 innings, which was Giolito's shortest and worst stint of 2019. This time the Cubs will have a DH in their lineup, so theoretically it's an even stronger lineup that Giolito has to deal with. The Cubs are already one of the highest scoring road teams in baseball at 5.3 runs per game. Love the Cubs in this spot. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Under Marlins/Braves (4:10 ET): Given how yday's game played out (Braves won 1-0), I wouldn't go expecting many runs to be scored here. I was willing to roll with Miami (at +1.5) last night as they had the unbeaten Jordan Yamamoto on the hill. My thought is that Yamamoto could certainly mitigate the damage the Braves would do offensively and he did, keeping them off the scoreboard entirely and allowing just two hits in six innings. The game's only run came in the 9th inning, after a long rain delay. Miami remains the lowest scoring team in the National League. Take the Under. 

Atlanta pitching should again have its way w/ Miami hitting today as Max Fried gets the baseball. Fried faced the Marlins one other time this season, last month, and held them to three runs in six innings. Fried has been a much better pitcher at home (supported by the numbers) and Miami simply has been unable to produce much offense in these games vs. Atlanta no matter where they take place. They're 1-9 head to head this year, getting shutout three times and scoring more than two runs just three times. So expect Fried to hold up his end of the bargain. 

Assuming Fried does hold up his end of the bargain, then this game shouldn't see the bottom of the 9th. Not like it mattered yesterday when it did, but avoiding those final three outs can be huge when playing the Under. The Braves are huge favorites here for a reason, but Miami's Caleb Smith can hopefully turn in a start resembling what we saw from Yamamoto yesterday. Smith is making his first start in a month here after battling hip inflammation, but held Atlanta to just three runs in six innings earlier this year. Everything points to a low-scoring game here. 8* Under Marlins/Braves

8* Tampa Bay (4:10 ET): The Rays have now lost six straight times to the Yankees and are 2-9 against them for the season. The two losses so far in this series have come in excruciating fashion as both went extra innings and saw the Yankees turn in a big inning for the win. But if there was ever a time for TB to break through w/ a win in this AL East rivalry, it looks to be today when they'll send Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to the bump. I gotta think this is the Rays' day. 

Snell is the reason the Rays are favored this afternoon, though his last start against New York was a complete disaster. He got only one out before allowing six runs and was pulled in the first inning. The next start wasn't any good either as the Twins chased him after scoring seven runs in 3 1/3 innings. But last time out was a return to form for Snell as he struck out 12 batters in six innings and the Rays beat the Rangers 6-2 here at home. Notable is that those two previous awful outings both came on the road. Back at Tropicana Field, he allowed just two runs on three hits on Sunday. 

CC Sabathia opposed Snell back on June 19th as the Yankees rolled to a 12-1 victory. But it won't go like that here in Tampa considering CC has not been good on the road this year. The hefty lefty has a 6.30 ERA and 1.666 WHIP in six starts away from home this season w/ the team ending up w/ a losing record. The Rays have deserved a better fate in this series and will get the elusive win over the Yankees (finally!) today. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Toronto (3:07 ET): Due to the number of plays I have going today (8) and the early start times involved here, analysis will be slightly more brief than normal. This is a revenge spot for Toronto after they dropped the series opener Friday, 4-1. Losing at home to Baltimore is no laughing matter as the Orioles have the worst overall record in baseball (not that it wasn't expected) and have been outscored by 167 runs over the first half of the season. Today's game is one that the Blue Jays should win rather easily. 

Baltimore has actually won two in a row as they beat Tampa Bay 9-6 on Thursday. This puts the O's in a rare spot as they have not won three in a row since a four-game win streak back in early April. Last time in this spot was Sunday and they were shutout by the Indians. Incredibly, this is just the fifth time they've won B2B games since that four-game streak in early April! Today's starter Andrew Cashner has actually managed a winning record for this team, going 8-3 in 16 starts (10-6 TSR) and things couldn't have gone any better than they did in a 13-0 win over Cleveland last weekend. But don't be looking for a repeat of that here. 

Toronto turns to Clayton Richard, who is off B2B quality starts, including an 11-4 win over Kansas City on Monday. The veteran southpaw faces an Orioles team that is 9-24 vs. lefty starters this season and is 10-25 in day games. This is all about being a great spot to fade Baltimore. 8* Toronto

7* Arizona (9:10 ET): One of the more interesting "case studies" of MLB's 1st half resides out in the desert where Arizona has struggled far more than you'd expect at home this year. Their record at Chase Field is just 17-22 and playing a significant role in that was them getting swept here by the Rockies last month. They'll get a shot at revenge this weekend and Friday is an excellent time to strike w/ Zack Greinke being on the hill. I believe the D'backs are better than their overall record (43-45) states as they've actually outscored the opposition by 41 runs over the course of the season. Look for Greinke to lead them to a win in this series opener. 

Of course, the Rockies home vs. road splits have been well-defined throughout the franchise's quarter-century existence. We know the offense is going to decline when they leave Coors Field. But the drop they are experiencing this season is as dramatic as ever. While they continue to lead all of baseball in runs scored at home (6.9 per game!), that average drops all the way to 4.4 rpg on the road. Facing Greinke tonight, you'd expect the struggle to score runs on the road to continue. After all, Greinke is top five among all NL starters in both ERA (2.90) and WHIP (0.94). 

Neither team comes into this series playing well. Both are on three-game losing skids. But the D'backs are clearly in better position to bounce back here due to the revenge angle and Greinke getting to face the Colorado lineup outside of Denver. Greinke threw seven shutout innings last Friday at San Francisco, leading his team to a 4-3 win. He hasn't given up a run in three of his last five starts overall. While Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela picked up a win in the last series w/ Arizona, his WHIP (1.622) remains a concern as he continues to walk far too many batters (14 in his L4 starts). Senzatela also has a 4.93 ERA in 10 previous appearances in this NL West rivalry. With the D'backs 36-17 in Greinke's last 53 home starts, this is a great spot to take them. 7* Arizona 

10* Under Blue Bombers/REDBLACKS (7:30 ET): This is a matchup of the league's #1 (Ottawa) and #3 (Winnipeg) scoring offenses right now, but don't be surprised when this game ends up lower scoring than expected. Both defenses are very good at stopping the run, ranking 1-2 in the league in that area w/ the Redblacks slightly ahead. The Blue Bombers have allowed only ONE offensive TD in two games, so the fact they've allowed 44 points (still a good number!) is a tad bit misleading. I'm taking the Under in this battle of unbeatens. 

I still have my doubts with Ottawa pivot (QB) Dominque Davis. Yes, he looked very good two weeks against Saskatchewan (Ottawa had a bye last week). Davis threw for 300+ yards and three touchdowns in the 44-41 win over the Rough Riders, but I wouldn't go expecting anything resembling that this week. I say that because back in Week 1 Davis had 0 passing TD's and 4 INT's against Calgary. The Redblacks were pretty fortunate to win that game as they came back in the 4th quarter and scored the go-ahead touchdown with just 1:22 remaining. Davis' results through two games are thus very inconsistent and he'll likely finish somewhere "in between" in this third start of his pro career.

Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols has thrown 3 TD passes in both games and has zero interceptions thus far. But the Bombers only managed 273 total yds of offense in LW's home opener against Edmonton. I had them in the 28-21 win, but they had to hold on and won that game because of the defense, not the offense. The passing game has failed to break 200 yards in the two games thus far. It'll be the defenses ruling the day again here as this number was set too high. 10* Under Blue Bombers/REDBLAC

8* Run Line Miami (7:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Marlins +1.5.  Yet another revenge play where we'll have an additional 1.5 runs in our proverbial "back pocket." Normally I would not even consider the Marlins here, given the oddsmakers are giving them such a small shot of winning. But having the undefeated Jordan Yamamoto on the mound is definitely a "game changer." Yes, Atlanta has played well of late and they have owned the Marlins. But my view is that the road team does no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 

The Braves are 22-6 vs. the Marlins since the start of last season, including 8-1 in 2019, but they've yet to face Yamamoto. Considered just a "throw in" as part of the deal that sent Christian Yelich to Milwaukee, Yamamoto has been a real "bright spot" on a last place team. He has a 4-0 TSR w/ a 2.35 ERA and 0.957 WHIP. After completely shutting down the Cardinals in two different starts (no runs allowed in 14 IP), Yamamoto moved on to face the Phillies twice and while not quite as dominant, he still allowed only five hits in 9 IP. There were some control issues in those starts, but I don't see that being a long-term issue for him. 

I know Atlanta's offense has been red hot of late, but Yamamoto should "cool them off" somewhat tonight, thus opening the door for an upset. Note the last two times the Braves beat the Marlins, it was a one-run game. Here, you also have the fact that Julio Teheran has looked HORRIBLE of late. Friday's starter for Atlanta comes in w/ an 11.92 ERA and 2.736 WHIP over his L3 starts! He was a little better his last time out, but still lasted only 3 1/3 innings. We're getting the better pitcher +1.5 runs here, which is exceedingly rare and an opportunity that's simply too good to pass up. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

6* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Revenge is going to the common theme with the teams I am taking in this 3-game report Friday. Here, the Mets have plenty of it as they were swept in a four-game series at Philadelphia last week. That's part of a 2-8 slide by the Metropolitans coming into this series. But they did have the 4th of July off and Jacob deGrom starts today. That should be enough to turn the tide here against a Phillies team that isn't exactly playing good baseball either. Since sweeping the Mets last week, the Phils have dropped four of six, including a 12-6 loss last night in Atlanta. 

The Phillies didn't have to face deGrom last week, but will have to deal w/ him this time around at Citi Field. While it's a crime against humanity that the Mets are just 19-30 in deGrom starts since the beginning of last season, he continues to pitch well. He's allowed 3 ER or less in eight consecutive starts as well as 11 of his last 12. Though the Mets and Phillies have played 10 games against one another this season, deGrom hasn't started any of them. That's been a big break for Philly, who has gone 7-3 in those games. DeGrom is 7-1 lifetime vs. the Phillies (2.20 ERA), so their luck runs out here. 

Speaking of luck, the Phillies rallied from multi-run deficits to win all four games against the Mets last week. That doesn't happen often. In fact, such a feat had been accomplished only one other time in the last 35 years! While the Mets may have the NL's worst record since June 10th, the Phillies are tied for 2nd worst. DeGrom is the clear difference maker here as I just can't see Philly starter Vincent Velasquez (6.95 ERA L3 starts) being able to match him. Velasquez hasn't made it past the 5th inning in any of his L6 starts, which is a problem. The fact the Mets had yday off while the Phillies were in Atlanta is a big edge too. 6* NY Mets

8* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. Fueled by the revenge angle, I took the Rays yday and it was a pretty brutal beat w/ them rallying to tie the game in the ninth, only to then lose 8-5 (in 10 innings). They're now 2-8 against the Yankees this year, which largely explains why they're looking at a 7.5 game deficit in the AL East standings heading into the final weekend before the All-Star Break. While many will disagree, I don't feel that the Yankees are substantially better than the Rays, so the head to head record seems a little misleading. With an extra 1.5 runs in their "back pocket," TB is again the play tonight. 

Then again, maybe the Rays won't even need the +1.5. Ultimately, the run line would NOT have helped last night as they gave up five runs in the top of the 10th, but they held the Yankees to just three runs in nine innings. Tampa continues to pace the entire league w/ only 3.7 rpg allowed, so them getting the +1.5 here could be potentially huge. Brendon McKay gets the start tonight and it's hard to be any better than he was exactly one week ago in his big league debut where he held Texas scoreless for six innings. He retired the first 16 batters that he saw and allowed just one hit. 

It'll likely be tougher for McKay this time around, facing the Yankees, but I think he's up for the challenge. While there's no way Masahiro Tanaka will be as bad as he was his last time out, hopefully the dreadful performance over in London last weekend has him shaken. In what ended up as a ridiculously high scoring series, Tanaka couldn't even make it out of the first inning as he gave up six runs to the Red Sox. That's obviously "out of character" for him, but Tanaka is only 5-5 in 17 starts this year and the team is only 2-4 in his six starts away from home. The Rays do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

10* Over Brewers/Pirates (7:05 ET): These division foes just met last weekend & it was a very low-scoring series. None of the three games, two of which were won by the Brewers, saw more than five total runs scored. Going back even further, the last five meetings have all gone Under. Pittsburgh has definitely had its share of isssues scoring on Milwaukee pitching this season, averaging just 4.0 rpg, which has led to a 2-8 head to head record. But those L5 meetings all came at Miller Park. Games tend to be a lot higher scoring here in Pittsburgh, so take the Over tonight.

The Bucs should find success at the plate tonight against the struggling Zach Davies, who comes in w/ a 7.50 ERA and 2.333 WHIP his L3 starts. Davies did pitch relatively well last Saturday, limiting the Bucs to 1 run in 6 IP. But he also has a 5.08 ERA in 12 career starts against them. Pittsburgh does average a healthy 5.0 rpg here at home, so that's more reason to expect better success against Davies and company tonight. Twice this season, they've scored 9 or more runs against Milwaukee pitching at PNC Park. The Over is also 20-5-2 in the Pirates' last 27 home games! 

Not surprisingly, such a startling Over trend is not just a byproduct of increased offense. The Pirates are also allowing 5.9 rpg at home this season. We just saw them allow 11 yday, so there's definitely hope for a Brewers lineup that was just shutout in B2B games. Note those shutouts came against a Reds team that has allowed the FEWEST # of runs in the NL. It'll be a much more favorable matchup here against the Pirates' Steven Brault, who has a 1.59 WHIP in eight starts and has issued 3+ walks four of his last five times out. All three times Brault has started at home this year, the game has gone Over. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* Over Brewers/Pirates

9* Tampa Bay (5:10 ET): This is a big revenge game for the Rays, who were humiliated up in the Bronx last month. Not only were they swept by the Yankees, they got outscored 21-4 in the process! That sweep - and the fact the Rays are just 2-7 overall vs. NY - has obviously has played a major role in them now being 6.5 games back in the AL East. But, starting Thursday, they have a golden opportunity to "chip away" at that lead going into the All-Star Break. With the very beatable J.A. Happ going today for the Yanks, this is the time to go w/ the revenge angle and the Rays. 

The Rays have given up the fewest # of runs in all of MLB and only two teams - the Reds and Dodgers (both from the NL) - are within 50 of that number (315). Starting today will be Yonny Chirnos. Don't be fooled by his pedestrian 4-4 record, folks. Chirnos has a 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHI and h's allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his 11 starts. He's already faced the Yankees three times this season and has a 2.84 ERA in five career appearances against them. As for Happ, he hasn't pitched since giving up eight runs to Houston (allowed 3 HR's) on 6.23. He now has a 5.23 ERA on the year. 

 The Yankees are hot as ever, having won 8 of of their last 10. But Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 7 and should be entering this series on a five-game win streak. They failed to sweep the Orioles last night, losing in one of the more shocking ways possible, that is giving up six runs in the top of the ninth. As alluded to earlier, it's really atypical for them to allow that many runs, especially here at home. They are allowing only 3.6 rpg for the year. The Rays are 16-5 hosting teams w/ a .600 or better win percentage on the road! 9* Tampa Bay

10* Under Twins/A's (4:10 ET): Despite going 12 innings, last night's game between the Twins and Athletics still found a way to stay Under the total. Oakland struck first w/ three runs in the bottom of the second, but would not score again and Minnesota rallied w/ a run scored in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. Though the Twins are accustomed to winning in a more high-scoring fashion, I sense that today's game will be another low-scoring battle as they send Jose Berrios to the hill. After their four-game win streak was snapped last night, Oakland should start to slow down at the plate. Take the Under.

Speaking of slowing down at the plate, that's what I'm expecting from the Twins moving forward, at least on the road. They still lead the league at 6.3 rpg scored away from home, but they've already come up short of that number in four of the five games played on the current trip. Scoring that many runs per game on the road is simply unsustainable. For evidence of that, note that no team averaged more than 5.4 rpg on the road last season. While the A's are sending out the winless Tyler Anderson to the mound today, they normally do a good job of preventing runs at home. Visitors are averaging just 4.0 rpg here. 

Berrios is heading to the All-Star Game for Minnesota, just one of two Twins that made it despite the team's excellent overall record. It was a rough start for Berrios his last time out, but he should bounce back here. Prior to that last start (where three of the six runs allowed were unearned), Berrios had delivered five consecutive quality outings. He's gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less 14 times this season. He comes in w/ a 2.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Both are top eight among all AL starters. 10* Under Twins/A's

8* Chi Cubs (4:05 ET): What's happened to the Cubs in this series is a little shocking, at least from where I sit. They've lost three in a row to the Pirates, a team that I'd been mostly fading over the last 30 days or so. The primary reason I'd soured on the Bucs was their run differential. While the club has somehow always been able to stay withing a few games of .500, the bottom line is they've been outscored by quite a bit here in 2019. Even after winning six of eight, which has improved their YTD scoring differential by 38 runs, they are still -39 for the year, third worst in the NL and easily worst in the Central Division. 

The Cubs have the Central's best run differential (+46) yet somehow trail a Milwaukee team that is -6 on the year. A big part of that has been the Cubs' struggles on the road as they're now 16-26 away from Wrigley for the season, including 13 of their last 16. Last night's 6-5 loss came in the most excruciating way possible as the Pirates rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth. While it's not a "must win" game for the Cubs today (it's only July 4th after all), I expect them to place the utmost importance on winning today. They need a win pretty badly right now.

To get that win, they'll hand the baseball to Jose Quintana. The last time the Cubs won a game happened to come w/ Quintana on the mound. He threw six shutout innings against Cincinnati on 6/29. That may have been Quintana's first win since May 5th, but he has a 2.31 ERA in six previous turns vs. Pittsburgh. The Pirates go w/ Jordan Lyles here. Somehow, Lyles' last three starts have all come against Milwaukee. All ended up as losses for the Bucs. He finished w/ a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Over Cardinals/Mariners (10:10 ET): Thanks to a pinch hit HR from Tim Beckham in the home half of the eighth, Seattle beat St. Louis last night by a score of 5-4. While I've been very vocal in the past that the Mariners' early season offensive numbers were unsustainable (and turns out I was right), the fact is they've also allowed the most runs in all of baseball. So it's no shock to see them leading the league in Overs w/ a 57-26-6 mark in that direction (last night's game was a push). Of course, the St. Louis lineup is theoretically stronger here w/ the addition of a DH. Go w/ the Over tonight. 

Since starting the season 13-2, the M's have gone 25-49 overall. Not a shock to me as I had them as of the top regression teams for 2019. LY's 89-win season was a total mirage as that group was actually outscored by 34 runs! As alluded to earlier, this year's club gives up way too many runs (6.4 per game at home!) and tonight's starter Mike Leake has certainly made his contributions to that ugly number. In just his L2 starts, Leake has surrendered 12 runs and 19 hits, lasting only 11 1/3 innings. Despite tailing off from that ridiculous start to the season, the M's offense still averages 5.2 rpg, which is top eight in all of MLB. 

Now a game below .500 on the year, the Cardinals have been the picture of mediocrity over the last month. But they've only been two games below .500 one time and that was May 29th. That doesn't guarantee they'll win today, but I expect them to be more explosive offensively against former teammate Leake. The Over is 5-0-1 in the Cardinals' last six road games vs. a right-handed starter. Again, they have a DH and not the pitcher coming up to bat in this series. As for their own starter, Adam Wainwright isn't what he used to be as evident by a poor 6.31 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in seven road starts. 8* Over Cardinals/Mariners

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): With a come from behind victory last night, the Reds are well positioned to make it two in a row over the Brew Crew. Some of the "wind" was definitely taken out of Milwaukee's "sail" last night as they saw a 4-2 lead dissipate and turn into a 5-4 loss (in 11 innings, no less). Though in first place, it's not as if the Brewers have been a dominant team. They've actually been outscored over the course of the year! Meanwhile, last place Cincinnati has a YTD run differential of +38, not only 2nd best in the division, but also 5th best in the entire NL! I like the Reds at home tonight. 

The Reds have won each of the L4 starts made by Sonny Gray, who toes the rubber tonight at Great American Ballpark. Gray isn't exactly having a great year, but there's been only one start where he's allowed more than 3 ER. Now that was two starts ago, at Milwaukee. But Gray "got away with it" (Reds still won 11-7) and he should pitch better at home, tonight. Gray has a 2.76 ERA in his three previous starts vs. Milwaukee and that includes a season-high 9 K's (in 6 IP) in a win back in May. Again, the Brewers are a pretty average team. They've hit a collective .214 over the previous week. 

Jhoulys Chacin will oppose Gray tonight and things tend to NOT go Chacin's way when pitching away from home. He has a 1-7 team start record to go along w/ a 6.94 ERA and 1.707 WHIP. The last time he faced Cincinnati, Chacin gave up 5 runs in 4 2/3 innings. That was at home too. He was pretty fortunate to escape w/ a no-decision that day (Brewers won 6-5), but I don't see him being as lucky tonight. Did you know that the Reds have allowed the fewest # of runs in the entire National League? They've allowed 50 fewer than all but one team (the Dodgers)! 10* Cincinnati

8* Over Marlins/Nationals (6:05 ET): Washington took Tuesday's series opener, 3-2, and is a huge favorite tonight w/ Stephen Strasburg on the hill. Early on last night, it appeared as if we might be headed for a high-scoring game as it was 2-1 Nats at the end of the 1st. But they wouldn't score again until the bottom of the ninth when Trea Turner's double to center won them the ballgame. I like them to do a lot more damage at the plate tonight though and it's not like Strasburg has been that sharp of late either (6.50 ERA L3 starts). This one has Over written all over it!

The Nationals have started to surge, which I expected, considering my projection for them before the season got underway. Despite losing Bryce Harper in the offseason (overrated), this is a club I figured would improve in the standings. Thanks to the bullpen and injuries, it was a very disappointing first three months, but the Nats have now won six of seven overall. Taking full advantage of getting all these games against Miami is something they have to do and after yday, they're now 8-3 head to head this season. That includes four wins in the last seven days alone (swept them last week). 

In that last series, the Nats hit Sandy Alcantara hard, scoring six times off him in six innings. It was the most runs allowed by Alcantara in 2 1/2 months. His 1.601 WHIP on the road signals to me we may be getting a repeat of that ugly outing here. So too does a 9.00 ERA in four career starts vs. Washington. Strasburg is starting opposite Alcantara for a second straight time and he didn't exactly pitch great that day either, giving up 4 ER in 7 IP. Though Strasburg has had Miami's number throughout his career, the Marlins had been hitting better of late (before last night). The Over is 38-14-2 in Strasburg's last 54 starts at home. Don't forget about the hideous Washington bullpen either. 8* Over Marlins/Nationals

10* Under Yankees/Mets (7:10 ET): The Yankees are back in the States after a weekend visit to London that saw them put up 29 runs in a pair of victories over the Red Sox. The AL East leaders have now won five in a row overall. While back in NY, it's not the Bronx, but rather Queens for the next two days as they face the Mets in Interleague play. The Mets would gladly take "jet lag" over their recent issues. They've lost seven of eight (did win Sunday night) and appear to be fading fast, even in a weak NL East. I like this game to stay Under the total. 

Needless to say, Olympic Stadium over in London made even Coors Field seem like a "pitcher's park" by comparison. The first game between the Yankees & Red Sox saw 30 total runs scored (17-13 Yanks' win) as each team batted around twice! It was 6-6 at the end of the first inning. After the two games were over, 50 total runs had been scored on 65 hits. It was ridiculous. But now the Yanks come back to play under NL rules, which means the pitcher has to come up to bat and thus we should see a significant decrease in their offensive numbers here tonight. 

Starting tonight for the Yanks will be James Paxton, who has been going through a bit of a rough patch lately, but is still a very effective pitcher. He'd allowed just 3 ER in 11 IP over two starts before getting touched up for six runs by Toronto last week. I expect a bounce back here. The Mets' Zach Wheeler has a 2.84 ERA his L3 starts and has allowed just two runs on seven hits in the last two. Note the Under is 11-4 in the Yankees' last 15 interleague road games. 10* Under Yankees/Mets

8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): I'll roll w/ the Cubs again tonight, even though they lost for me (in humiliating fashion) last night. The fact they lost to Pittsburgh is one thing, but losing 18-5 was something completely unforeseen. The Piraters have had some big wins lately. They've scored 10+ runs in four of their last eight games, three of those seeing them win by 10+ runs. But the other four games in that stretch have seen them score a grand total of six runs. Last night was both the Bucs' biggest win and Cubs' worst loss of the season (in terms of margin). I expect a big bounce back from the Cubs here. 

Now admittedly, there are some troubling signs for the Cubs right now. They are just 16-24 away from Wrigley this season, including 4-13 their L17. They've dropped 7 of 11 overall and are 2-5 their L7 games. But tonight's starting pitching matchup is decidedly in their favor. Kyle Hendricks returns from a stint on the DL for the Cubs and hoping to resume his winning ways. Before going on the DL, Hendricks had gone 6-1 over his L9 starts w/ a 2.57 ERA. He reportedly looked so good in his bullpen sessions that no rehab assignment (down at Triple-A) was needed. I'm sure he remembers LY's results vs. Pittsburgh where he went 0-3 despite a 2.81 ERA (poor run support each time). 

I expect better run support this time around against Joe Musgrove, who I've successfully faded many times this season. Now the Pirates' starter is off B2B quality outings, including six shutout innings against the Astros last week. But he also allowed nine hits in those six innings and got plenty of run support. I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Pirates should feel fortunate to be hovering close to .500. Even w/ some of the recent blowout victories, they've still been outscored by 43 runs over the course of the season, not what you'd expect from a 40-43 team. Despite falling out of first place in the Central, the Cubs still have the National League's 2nd best YTD run differential. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): The Cubs have fallen out of first place in the NL Central again as they are now in a tie w/ Milwaukee. Yet despite the identical records, the Cubs have a far superior run differential compared to the Brew Crew (+64 vs. -4) and my view is that the Cubbies are the MUCH better team. Another team that the Cubs are clearly better than right now is Pittsburgh. The Pirates' ability to stay within striking distance of .500 has to be commended as they are -56 in run differential, the third worst mark in the entire National League. I like the Cubs to take Monday's series opener. 

Over the weekend, the Cubs dropped two of three to a Cincinnati team that is much better than its record implies. Sunday's 8-6 loss saw a late comeback fall short and as a result the Cubs finished June at 14-15 overall, their 1st losing month since the 2017 season. Starting today for them will be Adbert Alzolay, whose first career start really couldn't have gone much better. It was last Tuesday and while he walked four, Alzolay allowed only one run in 4 2/3 innings. The Cubs failed to get the win (lost 3-2 to Atlanta), but don't blame Alzolay. Here, he'll be facing a Pirates' lineup that scored all of five runs in its last series. 

That last series for Pittsburgh was against Milwaukee and saw them dump two of three. They also lost two of three in the only prior series with the Cubs this year (back in April). Both losses were shutouts. They're probably going to need to score plenty today w/ Trevor Williams on the mound and I just don't see that happening. Williams has allowed 11 runs in his L2 starts, including four HR's. For the year, he has a 6.00 ERA at home. The Pirates allow nearly 6.0 runs per game at home this year, which is tied for 4th worst in all of baseball. The Cubs average 5.3 rpg on the road, which is near the top. I just don't see the Pirates scoring enough to compete here. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Saskatchewan (7:00 ET): In my analysis for last week's Hamilton @ Toronto game, I wrote the following "I think it speaks volumes that - off a less than stellar offensive showing in Week 1 - Hamilton would be favored on the road here against a Toronto team coming off an opening week bye. That probably speaks more to the current state of the Argos than anything else. They went 4-14 SU last season (worst record in the league) after winning the Grey Cup in 2017. They enter 2019 w/ plenty of uncertainty, particularly at the QB position. I'm laying the points here." 

Well, that turned out to be a sharp move as Hamilton ANNIHILATED Toronto by a score of 64-14. As a result, the Argos opened as double digit dogs this week at Saskatchewan, who is also winless on the season (0-2). But the Roughriders can at least lay claim to being competitive in both of their defeats. In fact, they outgained both Hamilton and Ottawa and that was on the road. This is the season opener at Mosaic Stadium and comes on Canada Day, so you can expect a rabid crowd. I expect the Riders to reward their fans w/ a blowout victory here tonight. 

Even though they've lost both games, there is plenty of reason to believe in this Saskatchewan team here, even w/ QB Zach Collaros on the six-week injured list. The defense held Hamilton to just 23 points in Week 1, a significant achievement considering what the Ti-Cats have done subsequently. Then last week, under the direction of QB Cody Fajardo, they still scored 41 points on Ottawa. Unlike the Redblacks, Toronto is probably not capable of trading scores here as they came into the season w/ major questions at the pivot (QB) and those certainly were no closer to being answered following Week 1. The Argonauts managed just 214 total yards vs. Hamilton and the defense was shredded for 600+ yards while giving up touchdowns on each of the first six drives. Lay the points 10* Saskatchewan

8* Toronto (1:07 ET): This is a "wrap around" game as the teams are actually finishing up a four-game series that started Friday. The Blue Jays won the first two games of the series, 6-2 and 7-5, before losing 7-6 yesterday. It would again appear as if the hosts have been underpriced here as the ML has already been bet up and I'm inclined to agree with the move. Kansas City is simply not a team that you can count on as they have the third worst record in all of baseball (29-45) and are tied for the fewest number of road wins (13). In the entire month of June, they had just one "win streak" - that being three straight from 6/16 - 6/18. Other than that, they were 0-6 off a win. Look for the Blue Jays to bounce back on Canada Day. 

Toronto isn't exactly having a great season either, but they are 14-4 their last 18 times hosting Kansas City. They did have a 5-1 lead in Sunday's game before that quickly went away as the Royals answered w/ a five-run third inning. The lineup is theoretically stronger now w/ the return of Justin Smoak from the DL. Smoak even homered twice yday. Vlad Guerrero Jr was not in the lineup Sunday, but will be today.

The starting pitching matchup here would not seem to indicate an advantage for either team as both Glenn Sparkman (KC) and Clayton Richard (Toronto) gave up three home runs in their last starts. Somehow, Sparkman's team still won (8-6 at Cleveland), but his ERA and WHIP on the road are now 10.03 & 1.628 respectively. Richard's numbers at home (7.71, 1.714) are no better, but he's a lefty and the Royals have struggled in games vs. southpaw starters (8-15). They are also just 7-20 off their previous 27 victories. 8* Toronto

10* Under Braves/Mets (7:05 ET): The Mets blew another one last night, losing 5-4 to the Braves, giving up B2B homers in the top of the eighth. It was the Mets' seventh loss in a row as they continue to fade into obscurity. They're now 10 games below .500 and 13 back of the first place Braves in the NL East. They do get a boost here though w/ Noah Syndergaard returning from the DL. I think Syndergaard will at least do his job tonight. Whether or not the Mets' offense can is a different matter. Take the Under. 

Syndergaard has pitched better than his record, especially so at home where his WHIP is 1.077. Before going on the DL, he did give up five runs to St. Louis, but that came on the heels of seven shutout innings vs. Colorado and another quality start against the Giants. Syndergaard has not faced the Braves this season, nor has he ever beaten them in seven career starts. But his ERA is respectable in those seven starts and the good news is he'll mitigate how long the Mets' bullpen has to be in there. 

Atlanta goes w/ Max Fried, who has a 12-4 TSR overall, including a perfect 5-0 his last five. He's made B2B quality starts, one against the Mets, whom he held to two runs on six innings. He did the same to the Cubs his last time out, but only on two hits. Both games stayed Under the total. Fried has a 1.77 ERA in seven previous apperances vs. the Mets. The Under is 5-1-1 the Braves' last seven road games. 10* Under Braves/Mets

10* Joseph Benavidez (11:05 ET): This line has been bet down and I don't have the foggiest idea why. Benavidez has already beaten Jussier Formiga and did so in impressive fashion, a 1st round TKO at UFC Fight Night 28. Granted, that was nearly six years ago. But it's not like Benavidez has slowed down. Other than Demetrious Johnson, who beat him twice, only one time since 2010 has Benavidez tasted defeat. That was early last year to Sergio Pettis, a split decision loss which he's recovered from w/ convincing B2B victories. Overall, Benavidez is 8-1 his L9 fights.

Formiga isn't a bad fighter by any means. He even beat the aforementioned Pettis during a current four-fight win streak. But "styles make fights" and this is a bad matchup for Formiga. He is not the superior fighter here either on the ground or standing. The first fight w/ Benavidez was one-sided and lasted only 3:07. Perhaps this one is destined to go longer, but I still can't see Formiga winning. 

This is a flyweight matchup, by the way, set for three rounds. The winner is likely in line for a title shot against champ Henry Cejudo. For Benavidez, the scenario sets up quite well as not only has he previously beaten Formiga, he also holds a win over Cejudo (before him becoming champ obviously). Benavidez has basically been "second best" at 125 lbs throughout his UFC career. He now has a very viable path to the top. Expect him to take full advantage. 10* Joseph Benavidez

10* Philadelphia (4:10 ET): Philadelphia dropped their fourth in a row to Miami last night, losing by a score of 6-2. The Phils were probably "due" to lose considering the previous series against the Mets was a very misleading sweep in the sense that they actually trailed in all four games by 2+ runs. But now they're "due" to beat the Fish after being swept at home by them last weekend and losing again last night. Miami still has the worst record in the entire National League, mind you, and also has scored the fewest number of runs. 

After yday's performance at the plate, you have to think the Marlins are in line for an "off night" considering they average only 3.2 runs per game at home this season. That's certainly what Phillies starter Zach Eflin is hoping for here as he comes off an outing where he allowed a season-high 11 hits. Yet Eflin still got the win as his team supported him w/ 13 runs. That last start is not indicative of how Eflin has pitched this year as he'd been coming off three consecutive quality starts. He also has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 10 of his 15 starts overall. The Phillies have won five of Eflin's last six starts against teams that have a losing record.

Jordan Yamamoto has made three starts so far for Miami and needless to say things couldn't have gone much better. The rookie has a 0.95 ERA and 0.789 WHIP, twice shutting out St. Louis (over 16 innings) and then beating these same Phillies last weekend. But in that last start, Yamamoto began to show some cracks. He lasted just five innings and issued four walks. He also gave up two runs. Even w/ Yamamoto on the bump, it is difficult to trust a Miami club that is only 14-28 at home this year and 8-16 in day games. 10* Philadelphia

8* Toronto (4:05 ET): Don't expect me to take Toronto too often this season, but as last night showed they are certainly capable of beating the Royals here at home. Friday brought a 6-2 Blue Jays victory in the first meeting of the season. The Royals not only have the second fewest wins in all of MLB (Baltimore), but also the worst road record (12-29). After a six-gamee road trip that had them playing both the Red Sox and Yankees, this series is just what the doctor ordered for the Jays, who are now 6-2 vs. KC since the start of last season. 

Today's pitching matchup features two hurlers that have been performing better of late than per usual. Kansas City's Homer Bailey has a 4-0 TSR his L4 starts and has given up just one run in the last three, spanning 19 innings. But his season numbers would seem to indicate this impressive stretch is unlikely to last as he still sports a 4.61 ERA and 1.375 WHIP on the year. He's actually never faced Toronto before having spent so much time in the National League. Another issue for the Royals is that they are 0-8 their L8 Saturday games. 

Of course, what I said about Bailey can also be applied to Toronto starter Marcus Stroman, who is similarly going through his best stretch of the season. Stroman has a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP his L3 starts, not quite as good as Bailey, but Stroman has the more reliable track record. In four previous starts vs. KC, Stroman is 3-1 w/ a 2.42 ERA. Toronto has been hitting much better of late as they have scored six or more runs in seven of their past nine ballgames. They also just got 1B Justin Smoak back in the lineup. They should win easily today. 8* Toronto 

10* Under D'backs/Giants (10:15 ET): I've consistently harped on the fact that the Giants are a pretty poor team offensively (not to mention overall). That was part of the reason I played against them last night and sure enough they managed only one run in a home loss to division rival Arizona. I don't see tonight's game being any higher scoring as SF remains 28th in runs scored in all of MLB, 30th (last) in team batting average and 29th in OPS. At home, they are averaging only 3.1 rpg for the season, which is the lowest average for any team at home in all of MLB. Take the Under tonight.

In playing on Arizona last night, I noted they have been a much better team on the road than at home this year. I do expect them to end up winning this series, but do shy away from playing them again here as I'm projecting them to have a less productive night at the plate than usual. For the second time in a week, they will be facing Shaun Anderson. At Chase Field on Sunday, kept D'backs hitters at bay by holding them to only two runs and five hits across six innings. It ended up being a 3-2 win for Arizona, but Anderson has still allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts this year (including five straight).

Opposing Anderson again will be Merrill Kelly. He too started last Sunday's game and held the Giants to two runs on FOUR hits in 6 IP. Kelly has allowed 2 ER or less in four of his previous five starts, the lone exception coming against the Rockies. He has a 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all of those staying Under. The Under is also 7-1 his last eight starts overall. Look for this to be another low-scoring game from these two. 10* Under D'backs/Giants

8* Over Pirates/Brewers (8:10 ET): Milwaukee is 6-1 vs. Pittsburgh this season and swept them the last time they met, which was here in Miller Park at the start of the month. At some point in this series, you figure the Pirates will gain some revenge, but I wouldn't bet on it happening here as Chris Archer will toe the rubber for them. Archer has an 8.41 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in five road starts and overall it's no secret that I think the Bucs are a pretty bad ballclub. I've "called them out" previously for having a very poor run differential (currently -54, 3rd worst in NL) despite somehow always staying within striking distance of .500. Take the Over here in what should be a very high scoring game.

The Pirates' run differential had been a lot worse prior to the L2 days, which saw them shockingly outscore Houston 24-2! Usually, it's the Pirates giving up a lot of runs as they allow 5.4 per game this year, which is tied for third most in all of baseball (w/ Detroit, another team I'm playing Over today!). As alluded to above, Archer has not been good for the Pirates in 2019. He pitched okay against San Diego last Saturday, but that was at home. The Over is 8-4-1 in all of Archer's starts this season, including 4-1 on the road. He has a 6.14 ERA in four career starts vs. Milwaukee. The Pirates are the top Over team in the National League right now w/ a 46-29-4 record. 

One of the reasons I don't think you can count on the Brew Crew here is that they'll be sending Jhoulys Chacin to the bump. Chacin has really struggled of late w/ a 10.49 ERA and 2.165 WHIP his L3 starts. He also has struggled previously vs. Pittsburgh w/ a 2-7 record and 4.96 ERA in 13 career starts. While Milwaukee has been mostly an Under team this season, that's largely due to the road. Their home games average more than 10 rpg and after managing just nine runs in three games vs. Seattle in the last series, I see the offense "waking up" tonight. 8* Over Pirates/Brewers

10* Over Montreal/Hamilton (7:30 ET): This one is somewhat tricky as Hamilton is going to have to do most of the "heavy lifting" (i.e. scoring) here. But as the Ti-Cats proved last week in a 64-14 thrashing of Toronto (that I was on!), they are more than capable. That win was our *10* Game of the Week as the Ti-Cats became the first team to score on its first six drives since that data started being collected by the CFL. They rolled up over 600 yards total offense.  In their only game this season, Montreal allowed over 600 yards. Can Hamilton cover this spread? Not sure, but they'll make sure it's a high scoring game. Take the Over. 

The Alouettes lost their Week 1 contest, 32-25 to Edmonton. They did cover as eight-point dogs despite being outgained 608-299. The most notable thing from that loss was the injury to QB Antonio Pipkin. He's out six weeks, which means Vernon Adams will get the starting nod here. It's a good spot for Adams, coming off the bye. His best game as a pro came against Hamilton, back in November '16, when he threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns. Against Edmonton, he completed 70% of his passes for 134 yards and led his team to 17 pts in the fourth quarter. While Hamilton has allowed just 31 pts in two games, Montreal should score more than either of the Ti-Cats' previous two opponents. 

As I said last week, Hamilton should win the Eastern Division pretty easily this season. The other three teams all have issues at the QB position while the Ti-Cats can rely on Jeremiah Masoli, who threw for 5,209 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. He averaged nearly 11 yards per completion last week. Masoli should have a field day here against a Montreal defense that was shredded the lone time it took the field this season. The Over is 6-0 the L6 times Hamilton has faced a team w/ a losing record. 10* Over Montreal/Hamilton

8* Under Phillies/Marlins (7:10 ET): Philadelphia just became the second team in the last 35 seasons to sweep a four-game series in which they trailed every game by 2+ runs. They did so at the expense of the Mets, who now have the indignity of being on the wrong side of BOTH of those two sweeps in the L35 seasons (also happened in '11 vs. Colorado). The Phillies' win Thursday afternoon was a real "bad beat" for Under bettors as it was a 1-0 game entering the ninth. The Mets took the lead w/ a 3-run 9th before the Phillies answered w/ five runs of their own. Now matched up w/ a low-scoring Miami team (scored fewest # of runs in NL), Under bettors will get their revenge tonight. 

Speaking of revenge, the Phils have it here as last weekend saw them get swept - at home - by the Marlins. Not only did the next series (vs. the Mets) go very differently for Philly, but so did Miami's as they were just swept here at home by Washington. Like I said before, the Marlins are the NL's lowest scoring team, averaging just 3.5 runs per game and that average actually drops here at home. Against the Nationals, they managed only 11 runs and 19 runs in three games.

Vince Velasquez was having a rough go of it as starter, which is why the Phillies sent him to the bullpen for a month. His results as a reliever were no more inspiring, but I think we can count on him to deliver here. Miami has been Velasquez's favorite opponent through the years as he has a 2.90 ERA in 12 starts against them. That includes a 1.64 ERA in two starts this year. Last week he faced them and retired 15 of the 16 batters he faced w/ the only hit allowed being a solo HR. Current Marlins' hitters are just 19 for 125 against Velasquez. Once again, Velasquez is being opposed by Elieser Hernandez tonight. While Hernandez has still NEVER won a decision in seven career starts, he did fine last week against the Phillies, allowing just three runs in five innings in what ended up being a 5-3 final. 8* Under Phillies/Marlins

analysis soon

8* Arizona (9:45 ET): Arizona is a team that I feel is actually quite a bit better than its record. After taking two of three from the first place Dodgers to start the week (impressive!), they are now squared away at 41-41 on the year. But they have a run differential of +47, which is actually tied for third best in the entire National League (only teams w/ more positive RD are Dodgers & Cubs). A curious thing w/ the D'backs is what road warriors they've become. While they have a losing record at Chase Field this season (17-22), they are 24-19 on the road. Earlier in the year, they swept a series here in San Francisco. I think they'll beat the Giants again tonight.

Now, just last weekend, the Giants took two of three out in Arizona. That of course just plays into the interesting home vs. road split the D'backs are experiencing. But let's not lose sight of the fact the Giants are not a good team. They have the worst run differential in the entire National League (-93) due to some major offensive struggles, which have them bottom three in runs, batting average and OPS. Their week started by dropping two of three at home to Colorado, a series that saw them score all of seven runs. 

The Giants are only averaging 3.2 runs per game at home, which is significantly less than what they average on the road. They're a little fortunate to not have the worst record in the NL as they've been propped up a bit some by a fortunate 17-8 record in one-run games. Speaking of fortunate, tonight's starter Tyler Beede somehow has a 5-1 TSR in spite of a 7.07 ERA and 1.786 WHIP. I'd say he's "due" to lose a decision. Arizona made a pitching change overnight and will now go w/ Alex Young, who will be making his big league debut. Let's not underestimate the element of surprise in this one. Also, the D'backs average 5.8 rpg on the road. 8* Arizona 

10* Over Dodgers/Rockies (8:40 ET): The Rockies are out for revenge this weekend as they've been swept twice by the Dodgers this year, the most recent one coming last weekend. Last weekend's series was in LA, so the games weren't quite as high scoring as they were here in Denver for a three-game set back in April. That visit saw the Dodgers total 29 runs and they really haven't slowed down since, as they are #3 in the NL in runs scored. One of the two teams ahead of them (at #1) is Colorado as it's no secret their offense benefits tremendously from playing half of its games here in Coors. Take the Over Thursday night. 

The Dodgers come in licking their wounds some after dropping two of three down in Arizona to start the week. But they'd won six in a row before and still lead the NL West by a comfortable margin. They'll lean on Walker Buehler tonight. Buehler is pitching as well as anyone right now w/ a 2.96 ERA and 0.865 WHIP on the year (15 starts). His last three starts have been even better w/ a 0.78 ERA and 0.478 WHIP, the last one coming against these Rockies, whom he held to two runs in his 1st career complete game. It came w/ 16 K's as well. But there is reason to believe Buehler won't be as effective tonight. One, this game is in Coors Field. Two, the Dodgers allow almost a full run per game more on the road. 

Note all three Rockies losses to the Dodgers last weekend came in walkoff fashion. They responded by taking two of three in San Francisco. Pete Lambert will get the nod here. He gave up three runs in five innings in his start of the last Dodgers series, which ended up being a 5-4 loss for Colorado. Lambert has a 10.12 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his two home starts so far. The Over is 5-0 in the L5 Rockies home games, immediately following a road trip of 7+ days. Colorado rediscovers some offense here, but the Dodgers will "get theirs" too. 10* Over Dodgers/Rockies

8* Winnipeg (8:30 ET): Winnipeg is off a bye and has only played once, a 33-23 win over B.C. where they were +3 in turnover differential. Edmonton is 2-0, but will be playing on the road for the first time this season. So the stakes are high for this early season Western Division showdown. I'm going to lay the points w/ the Blue Bombers as I feel they are going to present some more challenges offensively than what the Eskimos have seen so far this season. 

Edmonton is off a spirited win over B.C., 39-23 as 2.5-pt favorites, a game where the sharp money had lined up AGAINST them. But they were able to contain former pivot Mike Reilly and the rest of the Lions offense, holding them to just 157 total yards of offense. With that performance, Edmonton is #1 in the league in yards per game allowed through two weeks. They are also #1 in yards gained on offense due to piling up over 600 in the opening week win over Montreal (32-25). But make no mistake about it, playing on the road for the first time, this is going to be the Esks toughest challenge. 

These rivals have split the last eight meetings. This will be Winnipeg's first home game as well. Interesting to note that Edmonton was just 2-7 SU on the road last season en route to a last place finish. The two teams they've beaten so far are a combined 0-3. Winnipeg's Andrew Harris ran for 148 yards on 16 carries in the opener and is the player to watch here. Look for the Bombers to reign supreme Thursday night. 8* Winnipeg

10* Under Rangers/Tigers (7:10 ET): Detroit has lost the opener of this series, 5-3, and five straight overall. They've actually lost 9 of 10 and are a horrid 4-16 overall in June as their season slowly sinks into the abyss. The Tigers have been outscored by 142 runs this season, which is the second worst margin in all of baseball, and they are the lowest scoring team at just 3.5 runs per game. But as reflected in the odds change, they do have a "fighting chance" Wednesday night w/ Matthew Boyd on the mound. Though he has a 6-10 TSR and has been roughed up a little bit his last two starts (both were on the road), Boyd has been the best starter on a bad team. I'm taking the Under tonight. 

Texas is one of the highest scoring teams in all of baseball as well as one of its biggest surprises. They are currently tied w/ Cleveland for the second Wild Card in the American League and just a percentage point ahead of Boston. Few, if any, predicted that before the start of the season. They've now won three straight, taking advantage of a weak schedule that's had them play the White Sox and Tigers. Speaking of surprises, Mike Minor is as big as any for the ballclub. His last six starts have all gone Under, he's won his last four and he has a 2.42 ERA/0.896 WHIP his L3. 

Boyd has been beat up a bit in B2B outings, but as I said earlier, both were on the road. His L2 home starts have seen him allow only three runs in 13 IP. But if not many people turn out for this game, I don't blame them as the Tigers are getting outscored by nearly THREE full runs per game at Comerica Park this season. Not sure if I've ever seen anything like that in my career. This shapes up to be a REAL low-scoring game. The Under is 24-9-1 in Minor's L34 starts overall. 10* Under Rangers/Tigers

8* Under Rockies/Giants (3:45 ET): Similar to Monday's game where we won w/ the Under (Rockies won 2-0), the public is erroneously loading up on the Over today. Considering last night's game (4-2 Giants win) also stayed Under, I'm just not sure why that is. It's a proven fact that when you take the Rockies outside the confines of Coors Field, their offensive output goes down rather dramatically. They average a league high 6.9 runs per game, but are at just 4.4 on the road. As for the Giants, they are one of the weakest offensive teams in all of baseball, ranking 28th in runs scored, last in batting average and 29th in OPS. Take the Under again this afternoon.

It also helps our cause here that Colorado will send German Marquez to the hill. While the Rockies' hitters may not like hitting the road, the team's pitchers certainly do. The dichotomy is perhaps best exemplified through Marquez's numbers as he has 5.70 ERA and 1.602 WHIP at Coors, but a 3.02 ERA and 0.794 WHIP on the road. That WHIP is really impressive when you think about it. In fact, it's the lowest WHIP on the road among any starting pitcher (in all of MLB!) w/ at least eight starts. Marquez pitched a one-hit shutout against the Giants, here in San Francisco, back on April 14th. 

Just three days prior that CG effort from Marquez, the Giants' Jeff Samardzija threw seven shutout innings of his own against the Rockies. San Francisco won that game 1-0. The Under is now 5-2-1 in the eight head to head matchups this season w/ three shutouts. Samardzija is off a couple of shaky starts, but he's been a much better pitcher at home this year (3.16 ERA). But he shouldn't expect a lot of run support here as the Giants average just 3.2 rpg at home. 8* Under Rockies/Giants

8* Under Royals/Indians (1:10 ET): This is the final game and rubber match of a three-game series between the AL Central rivals. Cleveland opened the series w/ a 3-2 victory before losing yday, 8-6, a result which snapped a four-game win streak. I had the Tribe in Monday's opener and they should be in good hands again today (as you can tell from the odds) w/ Trevor Bauer pitching. But, as tempting as it may be, I'm not about to lay that kind of price. Instead, I'm going with the better value in the Under as Bauer should shut the KC lineup down and the Indians' offense won't do too much either. 

Bauer hasn't displayed the consistency you want to see, but he still should be considered one of the better pitchers in the American League and certainly within his division. Though he did not last long his previous start (just four innings), note that his start before that was a complete game shutout. Interestingly enough, both starts came against the same team (Detroit). Bauer has a 3.01 ERA in 14 previous starts vs. Kansas City and has yet to face them in 2019. The Under is 6-1-2 his L9 starts against the Royals. 

It was a stunning comeback last night for KC as they scored five runs in the top of the ninth, four of them coming on a grand slam. Making the rally all the more improbable is the fact it came at the expense of Brad Hand, who had previously been perfect in save situations for Cleveland. A repeat of such an inning from the Royals is highly unlikely here though. They do have started Jake Junis to lean on, however. Junis has allowed just 2 ER in each of his L3 starts. The Indians' offense has been hot of late, but still sports rather pedestrian numbers for the year. 8* Under Royals/Indians

10* Under A's/Cardinals (8:15 ET): The Cardinals kind of "owe me" here after their four-run ninth inning cost me an Under bet Sunday night. Of course, their four runs came on the heels of the Angels also scoring four times in the top half of the frame! But spite isn't the only motivating factor in this play for Tuesday. As was the case w/ the Angels over the weekend, Oakland loses its designated hitter here as it's a NL park, so expect some dropoff from a team currently averaging 5.6 runs per game on the road.  Take the Under here. 

Jack Flaherty goes tonight for St. Louis. Like Miles Mikolas (who started Sunday's game), Flaherty is a much better pitcher here at Busch Stadium. His ERA and WHIP at home are 2.49 and 0.83 as opposed to 6.68 and 1.663 on the road. That's quite the split there. You should also note that the Cards have been shut out three different times w/ Flaherty starting, the most recent being his last time out which was here at home (6-0 loss to the Marlins). Flaherty allowed three runs over seven innings that day, so don't blame him for the setback. Also, in its last eight games, St. Louis has scored more than five runs only one time. 

Oakland's Chris Bassitt has pitched pretty well this season, giving up more than 3 ER in only ONE of his 11 starts. That's pretty impressive as is a 3.07 ERA and 1.091 WHIP on the road. Like Flaherty at home, Bassitt tends to pitch better on the road. So we should be getting the "best of both starting pitchers" Tuesday. In its last series, Oakland managed only 14 runs in four games. The Under is 12-3 the L15 games here in St. Louis and 8-1 their last nine series openers. The Under is also 11-4-1 the L16 times they've hosted an American League team. Low-scoring game tonight. 10* Under A's/Cardinals

9* Under Nationals/Marlins (7:10 ET): So Max Scherzer certainly seems to have "regained" his mojo. Not that he ever really lost it, but him starting the year w/ a 2-10 team start record seemed rather unfathomable. He's since won all four starts in June and has been rather dominant in doing so. In 29 innings of work, Scherzer has allowed just three runs on 16 hits! Two of those three runs allowed were solo home runs. He also has 44 strikeouts during this time. Miami is a team he's handled well throughout his career (12-4, 3.20 ERA), so expect Scherzer to be his usual dominant self on Tuesday. 

But Scherzer isn't the only pitcher I expect to throw well tonight. Miami's Trevor Richards might also have a losing TSR, but like Scherzer he's still pitched well. In five of his last six starts, Richards has allowe 1 or 0 ER. He faced the Nationals earlier in the year and it was a quality outing as he gave up only three runs in 6 1/3. Par for the course though, Miami didn't score any runs in that game and lost 5-0. The Marlins are the NL's lowest scoring team mind you and only average 3.2 runs per game here at home. I think it should be pretty obvious by now which way I am going.

The fact Washington is 1-9 following an off-day is enough to scare me off of them, especially given the current market price. But the Under looks to be a safe bet given the two starting pitchers. Yes, Scherzer does have an 0-2 TSR this year against the Marlins. But he allowed just one run the last time he faced them and this particular edition of the Marlins is very weak offensively (see above). Scherzer has gone 11 consecutive starts w/o allowing more than three runs. I expect a good old fashioned pitchers duel here. 9* Under Nationals/Marlins

8* Over Mets/Phillies (7:05 ET): The Phillies beat the Mets 13-7 yday and in the process snapped a six-game losing streak. In those six consecutive losses, they scored a grand total of 14 runs. So they nearly doubled that last night and also finished w/ a season-high in 19 hits. It may not be quite the same level of offense here on Tuesday, but it won't need to be as both teams showed yday when they combined for 20 runs. The Mets are now slouch offensively on the road as they average 5.6 runs per game, which is far more than they average at Citi Field! This one has "Over" written all over it.

For the 1st time all season, Jake Arrieta has delivered B2B quality starts for the Phillies. Given that information, what's the chance he makes it three in a row? This will be the Mets third time seeing Arrieta this season. He has pitched reasonably well in the two prior starts, but my thinking is that the third time may very well be the charm here for the Mets. Let's not lose sight of the fact they scored 7 runs on 15 hits last night. Despite coming off B2B quality starts, Arrieta still has a 4.54 ERA and 1.464 WHIP his L7 starts overall. I think it may not be a great night for him. 

Speaking of "not great nights," that's how you could describe Walker Lockett's start last Monday for the Mets. Starting for the 1st time all year, Lockett was charged with six runs (on five hits) and lasted only 2 1/3 innings. That left him with an unsightly 23.18 ERA and 2.575 WHIP. The Phillies offense is due to continue turning things around here. Meanwhile, the Over is 8-1-2 the L11 times the Mets have been off a loss. The Over is also 5-2 the last seven times Arrieta has started at home against a team w/ a losing record. The Mets are 37-42 on the season. 8* Over Mets/Phillies

8* Under Rockies/Giants (10:05 ET): It's been established that when you take Colorado outside of the friendly confines of Coors Field, their offensive production experiences a rather dramatic decrease. Just to illustrate, they are averaging a whopping 6.9 runs per game at Coors, a full rpg more than any other team averages in its home park. On the road, the Rockies are scoring only 4.5 rpg. That's the biggest home vs. road split in the league obviously. Matched up w/ a division foe that has its own issues scoring (no matter where it plays) the Under is the clear call here.

San Francisco had gone Over in five straight games prior to yday's 3-2 loss to the Diamondbacks. The Giants were actually in a position to sweep the three game series (on the road!) before losing Sunday. But let's not mistake this for a good team, okay? The Giants own the NL's worst run differential (-90) and have scored the second fewest runs in the league. They are 28th overall in MLB in runs scored, 30th (last) in team batting average and 29th in OPS. I don't expect them to score many runs today. The last time they hosted Colorado, three of the four games stayed Under (w/ one push). 

Drew Pomeranz is off a bad start for the Giants as he allowed seven runs to the Dodgers last Wednesday. But in the two starts before that one, he allowed ZERO earned runs in 10 IP. Both of those starts came at home while the last one was in LA. Colorado counters w/ Jon Gray, who is off a quality start in Arizona where he surrendered only two runs (one unearned) in 6 IP. The start before that, he had 10 K's and no walks. Pomeranz has a 1.89 ERA in five career starts vs. Colorado. Gray hasn't been nearly as successful against SF, but this is a much weaker team than those previous editions. 8* Under Rockies/Giants

9* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians have done quite well for themselves of late, winning 8 of their last 10. Now it should be noted that includes a perfect 6-0 record against a really bad Detroit team, but the next opponent happens to be below even the Tigers in the AL Central standings. That is of course Kansas City, who comes in at 27-51 overall, including 11-26 on the road. This one is all about revenge for Cleveland as the Royals shockingly swept them out at Kauffman Stadium back in April. Look for the Tribe to gain a measure of payback Monday. 

The Indians have won this division three straight years. But by standing pat this past offseason, it seems they have slipped a bit. Minnesota is far out in front, but a wise decision has been made to start relying on some youth as recent callups have paid off. Guys like Oscar Mercado and Bobby Bradley are producing, resulting in the team now being a season-best seven games over .500. Tonight they'll have Adam Plutko on the mound and he's pitched well in five previous starts, save for one forgettable outing. His L3 starts have produced a 0.98 WHIP. If he can work on limiting the home run ball, he'll be a solid member of this rotation. 

Kansas City happens to be bottom five in all of baseball in # of HR's hit, so Plutko seems good in that regard. As for the Indians' hitters, they should feast on Brad Keller, who gave up seven runs his last outing and lasted only four innings. The Royals have lost the last five times Keller has started, not that it's all his fault, as he's been provided little in the way of run support. The offense has scored a grand total of six runs in those five losses, twice getting shutout and never scoring more than three in any one game. The Tribe gets its revenge. 9* Cleveland

8* Over Royals/Indians (7:10 ET): The Indians have done quite well for themselves of late, winning 8 of their last 10. Now it should be noted that includes a perfect 6-0 record against a really bad Detroit team, but the next opponent happens to be below even the Tigers in the AL Central standings. That is of course Kansas City, who comes in at 27-51 overall, including 11-26 on the road. Cleveland is out for revenge here as the Royals shockingly swept them at Kauffman Stadium back in April. Look for this game to go Over the total. 

Indians' hitters should feast on KC starter Brad Keller, who gave up seven runs his last outing and lasted only four innings. For the year, Keller has a 4.45 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 16 starts. The Royals are 4-12 in those games. His numbers get even worse on the road where he has a 2-8 team start record. That last start (where he allowed 7 runs) came on the road against Seattle. Keller allowed multiple HR's. Cleveland's offense has begun to produce a bit more of late as they've scored 7+ runs in four of their last six games. 

Adam Plutko goes here for the Indians and while he's pitched well, there was one bad outing (allowed 7 runs to Tampa Bay). The home run ball has been a bit of a problem for Plutko as he's surrendered a total of nine in his five starts, including four in that loss to Tampa Bay. While I do think the Indians win here, it'll have to come in high-scoring fashion. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Royals' last five road games and is a perfect 4-0 the L4 times they've been off a win (beat Minnesota 6-1 on Sunday). 8* Over Royals/Indians

8* Boston (7:10 ET): This game immediately caught my eye for the line being so low. There obviously had to be a reason that Boston wasn't closer to -200 on the ML and that reason is that Lucas Giolito is starting for the White Sox. Giolito has been excellent in 2019 w/ a 2.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. But he did give up a season-high six runs in his last outing and pitches for - pretty clearly - the inferior team in this matchup. I know it wasn't a good weekend for Boston (dropped two of three to Toronto), but they'll bounce back tonight at Fenway Park. 

I wrote about the White Sox overachieving ways in my analysis for their Saturday matchup w/ Texas. They ended up losing that game 6-5 and then they lost again Sunday 7-4. Despite being within cracking distance of .500 (36-39), this is a team w/ a YTD run differential of -62. That's worse than the last place Royals, who are 27-51 on the season. The gap between Chicago's actual (36) and expected (31) win total is actually tied for the largest in all of MLB w/ the latter number being based off their season run differential. Bottom line is that this is a much WORSE team than the record shows. 

The Red Sox season got off to a slow start, but they've bounced back to get into Wild Card position and should be fine the rest of the way. Yes, they just dropped two of three (at home!) to a bad Toronto team, blowing a 6-0 in one of the losses. But they've still won 8 of their last 11 and have a run differential of +51 (5th best in AL) for the year. Starting tonight will be Eduardo Rodriguez, the team leader in wins (8) and he has an 11-4 TSR overall. He is 2-0 w/ a 2.66 ERA in four previous starts vs. the White Sox. He was on the right side of a 15-2 decision against Chicago last month, part of a series that saw the Red Sox take three of the four games. 8* Boston

8* Under White Sox/Red Sox (7:10 ET): I also like this game to stay Under. While I do firmly believe Boston is going to win, scoring runs off Giolito has proven easier said than done this year. He did give up a season-high six in his last outing, which came at an unfamiliar venue (Wrigley Field). Before that, he'd allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine consecutive starts, all against American League opponents. One of those nine starts came against Boston, whom he held to three runs in five innings. The Under is still 7-2 his L9 starts overall. 

Like I said in the other writeup, Rodriguez is the team leader in wins for Boston and should pitch well here. He is 2-0 w/ a 2.66 ERA in four previous starts vs. the White Sox. The Red Sox scored only one run yday in a loss to Toronto. This win will have to come in low-scoring fashion as the Under is 5-1 following the L6 times Boston has scored two runs or less their previous game. 8* Under White Sox/Red Sox

8* Under Angels/Cardinals (7:05 ET): On Friday, I used the Under in this matchup as my *10* Total of the Week. It won, as did St. Louis by a final score of 5-1. The Cardinals again came up victorious Saturday afternoon, this time a little closer, as it was a 4-2 final. They'll go for the three-game sweep on Sunday Night Baseball (ESPN) against an Angels team that had been hitting the ball well coming into this series. But the loss of the DH (NL rules) has proven to be pretty significant so far as they've scored only three runs total on St. Louis' pitching. Take the Under again in this one. 

Miles Mikolas will get the start here for the Redbirds and boy does he enjoy pitching at Busch Stadium. Well, I should clarify - he pitches well here. His TSR is only 5-3 at home, but he has a 2.55 ERA and 0.887 WHIP, so the results probably should be a bit better. Last time out, Mikolas tossed six shutout innings (here at home) at the expense of Miami. The home vs. road splits Mikolas has been experiencing are very apparent when you look at his L4 starts. He's faced Miami twice and the Cubs twice, once at home and once on the road vs each. The two home starts have seen him allow just 1 run in 13 IP. The two on the road saw him allow 8 runs in 9 IP. 

Tyler Skaggs will go tonight for the Angels and he has been one of the top Under pitchers in all of baseball this year. The Under is 10-2 in all Skaggs' starts, which may seem odd as he doesn't have the most overwhelming numbers. But his offense has really failed to support him as there's been only one time all season where the Angels scored more than five runs in a game started by Skaggs. That said, Skaggs was excellent his last time out in holding Toronto to 1 run on 3 hits in 7 1/3 IP. This should be another low-scoring game. 8* Under Angels/Cardinals

8* Under Orioles/Mariners (4:10 ET): Two teams that are accustomed to high scoring games, I believe, are poised to go Under on Sunday. Baltimore and Seattle are last and second to last respectively when it comes to runs allowed this year. The Orioles have allowed 481 in 77 games (6.2 per game) while Seattle has given up 495 in 81 games (6.1 per game). It was Baltimore winning on the scoreboard yesterday, 8-4, which was another Over for Seattle as they are now a shocking 54-22-5 Over in all games this season. But I think today's game will be different. Take the Under. 

Friday's game (won 10-9 by Seattle) was also high scoring. But the opener of the series (back on Thursday) wasn't as the Mariners prevailed that day by a score of 5-2. The first two games of this series aside, Seattle's offensive numbers have really tapered off since a hot start to the season. Today they'll be facing a pitcher they've never seen before, Gabriel Ynoa, who is still winless and off the worst of his five starts this season. But Yano's WHIP is still respectable and he hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of the first four outings. 

By winning Saturday, Baltimore snapped an ugly 10-game losing streak. This is (again) the worst team in baseball and I don't see them scoring eight runs again like they did yday. They've actually scored a total of 17 the L2 games, which is a really high number for them. I'll be the first to admit that Mariners' starter Yusei Kikuchi does not have impressive numbers on the season. But the Orioles have never faced him before, which is a slight advantage for the pitcher. The eight runs scored yday for Baltimore came on only eight hits. They're still only batting .215 the L7 games and scoring 3.5 rpg. 8* Under Orioles/Mariners

10* San Diego (1:35 ET): These are two clubs that have found their way onto my mostly FADE list, but by rule somebody's got to win Sunday. The first two games of the series have gone to the Pirates, but don't let that fool you into thinking they are necessarily the better team here. Even after those wins, the Bucs' YTD run differential is still -73, second worst in the entire National League. What's interesting here is the Padres are 0-3 this season as road faves of -125 to -175. They'd been in that role just TWICE the previous two seasons. I think it speaks volumes that they are the betting favorite going into Sunday. Pittsburgh is 0-2 this year as a home dog of +125 to +175. 

Starting pitching obviously has the biggest influence on the line and this is where you can see why San Diego is favored this afternoon. Joey Lucchesi has been very good for the Padres so far, most notably his last time out when he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. Milwaukee. One might try an make the argument that Pittsburgh starter Steven Brault has turned the corner seeing as he too didn't allow any runs in his last outing. But he was quite fortunate not to as he allowed eight hits in six innings. He was also facing Miami, the lowest scoring team in the N.L. 

Neither of these teams are as good as their records, which frankly are pedestrian at best anyway. Yet I feel Pittsburgh's "true" level of play this year is further below their WL record than is the case w/ San Diego. The Padres are a league-leading 18-8 in one-run games this year. They are also 4-1 in Lucchesi's last five starts. Lucchesi has allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts, one of those against Pittsburgh where he allowed just two runs and five hits in seven innings. That ended up being a hard-luck loss, but he also threw five shutout innings of one-hit ball in his lone start vs. Pittsburgh last year. While Lucchesi hasn't won a decision on the road this year, Brault hasn't won one at home either. 10* San Diego

8* Arizona (10:10 ET): The Diamondbacks appear to be headed south as they've lost five in a row, the last four all coming here at Chase Field to division rivals. Last night saw the Giants exact some revenge against them (for a three-game sweep by Arizona in SF last month) w/ an 11-5 win. These NL West foes have now met seven times in 2019 and the last six have all seen the road team prevail. I'm going to call for that streak - and the D'backs losing skid - to both come to an end Saturday night as Zack Godley returns to a starting rotation in dire need of some help. 

Godley has not started in a month. The last time he started was against ... San Francisco. The D'backs actually lost the game, 8-5, with Godley allowing four runs in 3 1/3 innings. That was actually the start of the six-game win streak by the road team in this rivalry. The Giants have beaten the D'backs three straight times at Chase Field where Arizona has curiously struggled this season (only 14-20). This all being said, Godley's recent work out of the bullpen has been mostly good (w/ the exception of his last appearance!) and was enough to justify him starting this game. It may not be a long outing, but that's okay. 

San Francisco has the worst run differential in the National League (-92). So even though they are already in last place (32-42), really things could - and should - be worse. Run differential says this is a 27-win team as only Baltimore and Detroit have been outscored more this season. Arizona, despite being a game under .500, actually sports a run differential of +41. That is the 5th best differential in the NL! Rookie Tyler Beede gets the start here for the Giants. He's coming off a surprisingly strong effort against the Dodgers earlier this week, but still has a 6.75 ERA and 1.708 WHIP on the year. He - and the Giants - revert back to "usual" form tonight, which is to say they'll lose. They are just 11-20 off a win this season. 8* Arizona 

7* Texas (9:05 ET): This looks to be one of the more sizable pitching mismatches I've seen in recent weeks w/ Lance Lynn going up against Omar Despaigne. That's a good thing for the Rangers, who are looking to bounce back from last night's surprising 5-4 defeat (game went 10 innings). The White Sox have certainly improved from LY's 100-loss debacle, but don't let their 36-37 record fool you into thinking they're ready to start competing for a Wild Card spot. This is a team that's been outscored by 58 runs this season, a number nearly identical to last place Kansas City! Look for Texas to bounce back here behind Lynn. 

The Rangers have also been a surprise this season, although they look to be more legitimate (+27 run differential) and are a Wild Card contender. They enter Saturday just 1.5 games back of Boston for the 2nd WC spot in the American League. Lynn has been a real catalyst in the team's surprising start as he's made eight straight quality starts and has a 3.17 ERA his L10. He's coming off a real gem too as he held Cleveland to one run (a solo HR) over seven innings and had nine strikeouts. Lynn has a 2.49 ERA in seven career starts vs. the White Sox, so I think he's poised for another strong effort tonight. 

Despaigne has made two starts since being called up from Triple-A Charlotte. The last one went rather poorly as he allowed seven runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Now that was against the Yankees, but the Rangers happen to be one of only three teams averaging more runs per game than the Bronx Bombers. Again, I simply do not have the same optimistic outlook that others may have w/ this White Sox team. They now own the largest gap between expected and actual wins (-6) in all of baseball. Run differential says they're a 30-win team. 7* Texas

10* Over Rockies/Dodgers (7:15 ET): I'm going Over here despite the presence of Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound for the Dodgers. Yes, Ryu is off to an incredible start here in 2019. He's 9-1 w/ a 1.26 ERA and 0.817 WHIP, putting him in line to start for the National League in next month's All-Star Game. But the Dodgers can score too. They are averaging 5.6 runs per game at home. Their opponent can score too, though they did lose 4-2 last night. Sure Colorado benefits from playing half of its games at Coors Field. But their last series (on the road) saw them score 20 times in three games. Take the Over here. 

Ryu's last four starts have gone Under, which can't be too surprising given how well he's pitched. He's allowed just THREE runs total during that time, two of them unearned. Over his last eight starts, Ryu has allowed just FIVE runs total, five times not giving up ANY! But let's stop the dissuading w/ the Over here. The Rockies have been a nemesis for Ryu throughout his career. He's just 4-6 in 10 starts against them w/ a 4.97 ERA. Again, the total is low here for two teams that are both more than capable of putting a good deal of runs on the board. 

The Dodgers had scored nine runs in three straight games going into yday. I'm obviously banking on them having plenty of success at the plate tonight vs. Pete Lambert. Lambert, who is a rookie, has made thee starts previously. The first two, both against the Cubs, went well. The last one, against San Diego, did not. Lambert gave up eight runs in only three innings to the Padres. While it would be easy to chalk that up to pitching at Coors, it's not like San Diego is any kind of great offensive team and it wasn't the home run ball that hurt Lambert either. The Over is 9-3 the last 12 times Colorado has faced a starter w/ a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 10* Over Rockies/Dodgers

10* Hamilton (7:00 ET): I think it speaks volumes that - off a less than stellar offensive showing in Week 1 - Hamilton would be favored on the road here against a Toronto team coming off an opening week bye. That probably speaks more to the current state of the Argos than anything else. They went 4-14 SU last season (worst record in the league) after winning the Grey Cup in 2017. They enter 2019 w/ plenty of uncertainty, particularly at the QB position. I'm laying the points here. 

Hamilton won its season opener, 23-17 over Saskatchewan. Many were surprised the Ti-Cats didn't score more given the way their offense performed under June Jones down the stretch last season. They are the one team in the East that entered the year settled at QB as Jeremiah Masoli threw for 5,209 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. Even with wideout Luke Tasker out for this game, the Ti-Cats have a deep group of playmakers that are more than capable of moving the ball. Remember they were facing a tough Saskatchewan defense last week. Toronto's simply is not of that same caliber. 

The Argos haven't had much success against their provincial rival in recent years, covering only 3 of the last 15 matchups. Hamilton took three of four last year, including both here in Toronto. While Corey Chamblin is back as the head coach of the Argos (previously served as DC here for the Grey Cup team in '17), he has his work cut out for him. I really think they're going to struggle to score points early on. QB James Franklin is a big question mark. The defense isn't as talented as the group Chamblin had two years ago. Hamilton makes a statement here that they are the team to beat in the Eastern Division. 10* Hamilton

8* British Columbia (9:00 ET): In Week 1, B.C. learned first-hand that Winnipeg may very well be "as good as advertised." The Lions were dealt a 33-23 loss by the Blue Bombers, at home no less, which is obviously NOT how they wanted to start the season. Meanwhile, Edmonton opened its season by downing Montreal 32-25 in a home game that was less competitive than the final score would indicate. The Eskimos outgained the Alouettes, 608-299, but needed a late score after the Als actually tied things up w/ a 4Q comeback. But let's not kid ourselves. The Als are the worst team in the CFL.

More than anything else, it was a -3 turnover differential that killed BC last week. They didn't have a balanced attack on offense (only 4 yds rushing on 4 attempts), but QB Mike Reilly had a solid debut as he completed 22 passes for 324 yards. Winnipeg was far more balanced on offense w/ 170 yards rushing and 180 passing.  I expect the Leos defense to be a lot more stout this week against the Eskimos, who don't have an Andrew Harris (who led the league in rushing last year for Winnipeg). This is a big game for Reilly after he chose to leave Edmonton for B.C. in the offseason. 

The pivot (QB) who replaced Reilly is Trevor Harris and he was the league's most accurate passer in Week 1. But for any Eskimos fans wanting to say "good riddance" to Reilly, they better be careful what they wish for. This will be a much more challenging game than Week 1 was for Edmonton. It's highly unlikely that they'll enjoy anything close to the massive edge in total yardage that was present vs. Montreal. Thus, I'm taking the points here. BC will run the ball more here (how could they not?) against an Eskimos' defense that permitted 134 yds on 17 carries last week. Also, the Lions have a big edge on special teams, thanks to return man Brandon Rutley, who had a 108-yard return for TD against Winnipeg. 8* British Columbia

10* Under Angels/Cardinals (8:15 ET): A red-hot Angels offense (6.1 rpg scored L7 games) heads to St. Louis this weekend, but unfortunately they'll have to leave the DH at home as this Interleague series will be contested under National League rules. Fortunately though for the Halos, they'll have Griffin Canning on the mound Friday and he's pitched very well this season (0.993 WHIP) even if that's not really reflected his his record. St. Louis is off to a disappointing start to their homestand as they split a four-game series w/ lowly Miami, including a loss yday. Take the Under here. 

The first three games of the Miami series were all low-scoring games for the Redbirds. There were two shutouts (one from each side) and a 2-1 game that went 11 innings (won by St. Louis). The Under was 3-0 in those games. Last night was a different story as St. Louis rallied from a 2-run deficit to tie in both the seventh and eighth innings. The game again went 11 innings, but this time it ended up as a 7-6 loss for the home team. Michael Wacha gets the start here and while he hasn't exactly pitched great, he is only two starts removed from going six innings w/o allowing a single run. Wacha facing a weaker version of the Angels lineup (pitcher coming up to bat) obviously helps. 

Canning should do well here as well. He simply does not allow a lot of runners on base. I played against the Angels last night as they lost 7-5 up in Toronto. Though they've done well so far, this is a pretty exhausting road trip for the Angels as they've gone from Tampa Bay to Toronto to St. Louis w/ no days off. So it could be an off-night at the plate, which is what I'm banking on here. The Under is 6-2-1 in Canning's last nine starts overall and a perfect 4-0 the last four times he's started off a team loss. 10* Under Angels/Cardinals

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Two of the American League's real "powerhouses" (pun intended!) are trending in very different directions of late as the Yankees are hot (won six straight) and the Astros are not (lost five straight). These recent disparate results can be directly tied to the respective health of the two ballclubs. Having gone 37-17 their L54 games, the Yankees are now as healthy as they've been all year as Aaron Judge returns to the lineup Friday. Houston's clubhouse currently resembles a M*A*S*H unit w/ George Springer, Aldemys Diaz and Carlos Correa all out. I think it makes a lot of sense to take the Yanks here. 

The respective health of the two clubs is enough justification to take the home team here, but the pitching matchup is the cherry on top. James Paxton will be seeking to win B2B decisions for the first time all season, but pay no mind to that nor the fact his ERA & WHIP from the L3 starts are higher than what you'd expect. Paxton has pitched very well at home this year (2.15 ERA, 0.954 WHIP) and allowed only two runs in six innings his last time out, at Chicago. That was a 10-3 win for NY and they've kept rolling ever since. During the six game win streak, they've outscored the opposition 49-17! 

Houston is having to rely on its pitching right now, but the starting rotation doesn't set up well at all for this series. Justin Verlander will go Sunday, but there's no Gerrit Cole. Tonight, Brad Peacock is on the mound and he'll have to contain a lineup now at full strength that has hit a HR in 23 consecutive games. The Yankees also just added Edwin Encarnacion. Peacock has a 5.51 ERA his L3 starts. He last started Sunday in a 12-0 loss to a Toronto team that is among the lowest scoring in all of baseball. The Yankees are 13-2 this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Houston is 0-2 as a road underdog in that same range and 3-9 the L3 seasons. 8* NY Yankees

7* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): The Cubs are back atop the NL Central, which is where they belong given that they are the division's best team. A six-run inning was all that they needed to beat the Mets last night and today's game should be just as easy. The Mets are in a real tailspin right now having dropped 7 of 10. The homefield advantage in this series would appear to be rather massive considering the Cubs' 26-12 record here at Wrigley while the Mets are just 15-26 on the road. Visitors are scoring just 3.5 runs per game this year at Wrigley. Take the Cubs here. 

It was certainly NOT a great start to the season for Cubs' starter Yu Darvish. But we've begun to see signs of him turning things around. His last start was arguably his best of 2019 as he went seven innings and allowed only one run on two hits. That was on the road, against the Dodgers, no less. Darvish finished w/ 10 strikeouts and the Cubs rallied for a 2-1 win. He's now allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last eight starts. This Mets lineup doesn't pose much of a threat as they've been unable to top four runs in four of their last five ballgames. The Cubs have owned the Mets in recent seasons, going 11-3 head to head in the L14 matchups. 

Jason Vargas has been solid if unspectacular for the Mets this season. More will be asked of him now though w/ Noah Syndergaard out. Unfortunately, Vargas was unable to "answer the bell" his last time out as he lasted just four innings and had to leave due to cramping in his left calf. The Mets are just 50-74 in day games the L3 seasons and are a team pretty clearly on the decline. They haven't hit well in day games this year (3.9 rpg) and won't today. Cubs win, Cubs win! 7* Chi Cubs

8* Under Rays/A's (10:05 ET): These teams just met last week and all three games stayed Under the total. That's the way I'm playing Thursday's series opener as we have what looks to be a pretty strong starting pitching matchup of Charlie Morton vs. Frankie Montas. Morton has been one of the most pleasant surprises in all of baseball this year as he's 8-1 w/ a 2.37 ERA and 1.03 WHIP (15 starts). That lone loss came his last time out when he surrendered four runs in six innings to the Angels (final score was 5-3). Montas is 3-0 his L3 starts and has a 2.85 ERA for the season. Take the Under.

Tampa Bay comes to the West Coast "licking their wounds" some as they were just swept by the Yankees (in NY). Yesterday was their worst loss all year as they were beaten 12-1 in a game reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell got chased in the 1st inning. So it's imperative they get a good start out of Morton tonight and they should. Before allowing the four runs his last time out, Morton had allowed just three runs - total - his previous four starts, which spanned 27 innings. One of those was seven scoreless innings vs. these A's, whom he held to just two hits. 

Strangely, Morton has pitched better on the road than at home. He has a 1.59 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in eight starts on the road where he remains unbeaten (5-0). Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest runs in all of MLB and allow only 3.3 per game away from home, which is also #1. Oakland only allows 3.9 rpg here at home w/ opponents batting just .229. Montas is 4-0 at home and has made three straight quality starts w/ 22 K's in 18 IP. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in 7 of his last 8 starts overall. After feasting on Baltimore pitching to start the week (scored 27 runs in 3-game sweep), the A's bats should cool off considerably tonight. 8* Under Rays/A's

8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. Toronto just can't seem to beat the Angels as last night's 11-6 loss dropped them to 0-6 head to head this season. But that's where the RL can at least help us this evening as they look to avoid what would be a pretty embarrassing four-game sweep in their own ballpark. Home teams rarely get swept in four-game series, so that & the revenge angle have me taking the Jays +1.5 here.

Now last night I did take the Angels. It was the second time in the series that they scored 10 or more runs. The middle game was a lot different as that was only a 3-1 win where they had to rally. Last night was all about Mike Trout as he had a career-high 7 RBI's, including his sixth career grand slam. The loss dropped Toronto to 12-25 at home this year as they have the lowest team batting average in all of baseball. It may not appear that tonight's starter Clayton Richard (10.21 ERA, 2.026 WHIP L3 starts) is poised to help the cause, but LA is just 11-17 in games where they face a southpaw starter. 

Richard had one really bad outing, that came the last time he pitched here at home (vs. Arizona). But other than that (gave up 7 runs in 2 2/3 IP), he hasn't been all that bad. It's not as if Angels starter Jose Suarez has been "lights out" either. He's allowed a HR in each of his three starts and has a 4.50 ERA. He's also yet to go more than 5 2/3 innings in any start. To me, this simply boils down to the "just due" factor for Toronto as they are on their longest home losing streak in 15 seasons. Meanwhile, this is the first time the Angels have been above .500 since they were 8-7 on April 13th. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* Under Rockies/D'backs (3:40 ET): This series has not gone according to plan for the home team as Arizona has dropped both games so far. They've had some major problems w/ Colorado this year, going 2-7 in head to head meetings, which is the primary reason why they're now two games back of their division rival despite having the superior YTD run differential. Arizona has outscored its opponents this year by 49 runs while the Rockies are only +21. I'd like to grab the D'backs this afternoon, but I actually think both teams are going to struggle to score in this one. Take the Under.

Colorado was able to score five runs in seven innings against Zack Greinke last night. It was the first time all season that Greinke lost at home and the Rockies' 11 hits were their most against him in 5+ seasons. But the news was not all good. Shortstop Trevor Story left the game after jamming his thumb on a slide. He's scheduled for an MRI today, so he won't be in the lineup. Story is one of only two players in all of MLB w/ at least 15 HR's and 10 steals. He also leads the league w/ 65 runs scored. His absence will be significant for a Rockies offense which obviously already sees a decrease in production outside of Coors Field (4.5 rpg vs. 6.9 rpg). 

Robbie Ray has pitched better than it seems, at least recently, for the D'backs. While his ERA in his L3 starts is 4.58, his WHIP is 0.966, so the first number is a little misleading. Last time out, he gave up five runs on only five hits, which is quite unlucky. The two starts before that saw Ray allow just five runs total in 13 2/3 innings (w/ 19 K's). Colorado's Jeff Hoffman has hardly been Cy Young this year, but he also allowed just one run (in 5 IP) his last time out. Arizona has scored only five runs in this series. The Under is 5-0 the L5 times Hoffman has started on 5+ days rest. 8* Under Rockies/D'backs

10* Arizona (3:40 ET): This series has not gone according to plan for the home team as Arizona has dropped both games so far. They've had some major problems w/ Colorado this year, going 2-7 in head to head meetings, which is the primary reason why they're now two games back of their division rival despite having the superior YTD run differential. Arizona has outscored its opponents this year by 49 runs while the Rockies are only +21. I'd like to grab the D'backs this afternoon, but I actually think both teams are going to struggle to score in this one. Take the Under. 

Colorado was able to score five runs in seven innings against Zack Greinke last night. It was the first time all season that Greinke lost at home and the Rockies' 11 hits were their most against him in 5+ seasons. But the news was not all good. Shortstop Trevor Story left the game after jamming his thumb on a slide. He's scheduled for an MRI today, so he won't be in the lineup. Story is one of only two players in all of MLB w/ at least 15 HR's and 10 steals. He also leads the league w/ 65 runs scored. His absence will be significant for a Rockies offense which obviously already sees a decrease in production outside of Coors Field (4.5 rpg vs. 6.9 rpg). 

Robbie Ray has pitched better than it seems, at least recently, for the D'backs. While his ERA in his L3 starts is 4.58, his WHIP is 0.966, so the first number is a little misleading. Last time out, he gave up five runs on only five hits, which is quite unlucky. The two starts before that saw Ray allow just five runs total in 13 2/3 innings (w/ 19 K's). Colorado's Jeff Hoffman allowed just one run in five innings his last time out, but generally has NOT pitched well this season as is evident by a 7.04 ERA and 1.467 WHIP. The Rockies have lost Hoffman's last four road starts. Go w/ the home team to avoid the sweep today. 10* Arizona 

8* Under Giants/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Although they are a quite respectable 5-6 head to head w/ the Dodgers this year, this is NOT a spot where you'd expect San Francisco to win. They are huge underdogs on the money line and got beat 9-0 last night. Throw in the fact that the Dodgers are 29-9 at home this year and this has the recipe for a beatdown. But the price makes it rather "unfashionable" to play LA here. Thankfully the total is another attractive option as I'm taking the Under in this one. 

Let's start w/ the fact that the Dodgers are giving up only 3.2 runs per game at home this season. Opponents are batting just .211 here at Chavez Ravine. Rich Hill toes the rubber Wednesday night and he'll be going for a 4th straight win here in June. Hill has started nine games this year and has yet to allow more than 3 ER. It also just so happens that Hill has been outstanding against the Giants since joining the Dodgers. He's 6-1 against them w/ a 1.81 ERA. San Francisco had only four hits in last night's game after managing just three in the series opener. Their offense should be "taken care of" tonight. 

The Dodgers' broke last night's game open w/ a grand slam from Enrique Hernandez in the 7th. It wound up being a six-run inning. Take that away and there was very little offense in the game. (The shutout was LA's MLB-leading 10th of the season). Hoping to hold the Dodgers' offense in check for tonight's nationally televised contest is Drew Pomeranz. While his overall numbers aren't that great, the Under is 7-4 this year in Pomeranz starts and he's coming off B2B strong efforts, one of which came against the Dodgers. Back on June 7th, at home, he held LA scoreless for five innings. He followed that by allowing just two unearned runs in another five inning effort last Friday vs. Milwaukee. 8* Under Giants/Dodgers

8* Under Marlins/Cardinals (8:10 ET): I already have an Under play on the American League's lowest scoring team (Detroit) in this package, so now let's also go Under w/ the National League's lowest scoring team (Miami). There's a rather sizable gap between Detroit/Miami and everyone else when it comes to runs scored this year. Yet Miami did put six runs on the board yday in a shocking shutout of their own here in St. Louis. That came after they were shutout themselves in Monday's opener. Another low scoring game should be on tap tonight. Take the Under. 

Five of Miami's last 10 games have seen either them or the opponent being shutout. Three of those five it's been them getting blanked. There were also two other games where they scored only one run. The last time they shut an opponent out was June 12th, also against St. Louis (won 9-0). They came back the next game and were shutout themselves (albeit by a different team). Before Starlin Castro's solo HR in the fifth last night, the Marlins had gone 18 straight innings w/o scoring.

Trevor Richards should keep Miami in this game, however. While he struggled his last time out, before that Richards had allowed 1 ER or less in four straight starts. Then there's the fact that the Marlins have not scored a single run in Richards' last two starts. He'll be opposed here by Daniel Ponce de Leon. This will be Ponce de Leon's third start. The first two have seen him go a combined nine innings and allow only two runs. The Under is now 5-0 in the Cardinals last five home games. 8* Under Marlins/Cardinals

8* LA Angels (7:07 ET): Time to cut bait with the Blue Jays, who just can't seem to beat the Angels. Last night's 3-1 loss dropped Toronto to 0-5 in the season series and things don't look any more promising Wednesday w/ Aaron Sanchez on the hill. Sanchez is 0-7 (nine starts) since the beginning of May. The Jays simply aren't hitting the ball well right now (only three hits yday) either. In fact, they have the lowest team batting average in all of MLB (.223), including a horrid .207 at home. Look for the Angels to make it three straight here. 

Toronto got blitzed in Monday's opener, falling behind 7-0 after the second inning. Yesterday was a little different in that the game was closer (and lower-scoring), but the result was the same - a loss (3-1). Sanchez has done plenty of losing lately as have the Blue Jays. The team has lost 30 of its last 41 games and Sanchez certainly hasn't helped. He is 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 10.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP. As I said earlier, he hasn't won a decision since April. He has a 6.95 ERA during the losing streak and is also winless in five career appearances vs. the Angels (4.42 ERA). Toronto is 2-6 the L8 times they've dropped the first two games of a series. 

The Angels go w/ Andrew Heaney tonight. Seeing as last night's starter Tyler Skaggs went a season-high 7 1/3 innings against this weak-hitting Blue Jays lineup, I expect Heaney to pitch well here. He has a 0.969 WHIP in four starts, so that 4.57 ERA is actually a little misleading as is the fact he's still winless. His first three starts saw him punch out 28 batters in 16 2/3 innings and last time out he allowed only one run and two hits in 5 IP at Tampa Bay. The bottom line is that Toronto has lost two-thirds of their home games (!) and is one of the worst teams in baseball. 8* LA Angels

8* Under Tigers/Pirates (7:05 ET): I took the Pirates yday and that proved to be a mistake as they suffered a 5-4 loss to the Tigers. It's not like I hadn't been critical of Pittsburgh previously. In fact, I'd been pretty much FADING them for the last month or so. This is a team that has been outscored by 78 runs on the year, the second worst differential in the National League. Not to be outdone, Detroit's YTD run differential is -131, which is second worst in all of baseball. Today I'll be playing the Under, a sensible bet considering the Tigers have scored the fewest number of runs in all of MLB. 

The Tigers won yday despite being outhit 8-6. The GW run scored on a fielder's choice in what should have been an inning-ending double play. Regardless, the win snapped a four-game losing streak for the team from the Motor City. But that won't change the fact this is an American League team playing in a National League park, which means no designated hitter. Considering every other AL team has scored at least 45 more runs than the Tigers, the lack of a DH is the last thing they need. Trevor Williams makes his return from a 30-day stint on the DL to start for the Pirates tonight. I expect him to pitch well. He's 2-0 w/ a 0.95 ERA in three previous starts vs. Detroit and went at least six innings in six of his first eight starts. 

Also making his return from the DL today will be Detroit's starter Jordan Zimmerman, whose last big league start came on April 25th. I think this is a good spot for him to return. Pittsburgh is not playing well right now obviously, so facing them should give Zimmerman some much needed confidence. The Under is 4-1 the L5 times tonight's home plate umpire has been behind the plate. The Under is also 41-15-1 in Williams' last 57 starts! 8* Under Tigers/Pirates

8* Under Orioles/A's (3:35 ET): Going Under anytime this dreadful Orioles' pitching staff is involved seems like a dicey proposition at best, but I think it's the right call here as they wrap up a three-game set in Oakland. Baltimore has scored only two runs themselves in each of the first two games. But they were up to their "old tricks" last night in allowing the A's to score 16 times! Oakland homered six times and 10 of their runs came in one inning. That won't happen again today, so my bet is this game being lower-scoring than anticipated. Take the Under.

Baltimore is going w/ a "lesser-known" commodity today as Jimmy Yacabonis will "open" w/ Josh Rogers following him. Yacabonis has already pitched in the series as Monday saw him go two innings w/o giving up a run. He allowed just one hit. Rogers has pitched just once all year and that was last Friday where he went 4 1/3 and gave up just two runs on five hits. So I think that the Orioles can slow down the A's bats this afternoon. Now, winning the game is a whole different matter for a club that comes into Wednesday having dropped seven in a row. 

Baltimore has scored three runs or less in five of its last six games. They average only 3.9 runs per game for the season. Another positive is that they allow fewer rpg on the road than at home. Yacabonis should help against Oakland's mostly right-handed hitting lineup. Chris Bassitt is the more traditional starter here for the A's and should do just fine. He has a 1.80 ERA in two previous starts vs. the Orioles. Hoping the A's have the lead heading into the ninth as that means we can avoid playing the bottom half of the final inning. 8* Under Orioles/A's

8* NY Mets (7:20 ET): The Braves are hot right now, but tonight they'll be running into reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, who has a 1.86 ERA in 18 career starts against them. For a second straight year, deGrom is experiencing the hardest of luck as his team start record (TSR) in 2019 is 4-10 despite good numbers. Over his last five starts, he has a 2.38 ERA, yet is winless over that stretch. He has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of the five starts and has allowed 2 ER or less in 7 of his last 8 trips to the mound, not to mention all but four times this season. 

Fresh off beating the Mets 12-3 yday, Atlanta sends out Julio Teheran, who has been "lights out" in his own right of late. His L3 starts, all Braves victories, have seen Teheran post a 0.53 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. During that time, he's allowed just two runs in 17 IP and one of them was unearned. But he also had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2) last time out and I simply do not see Teheran being as dominant as deGrom is. I say this knowing full well it's been eight straight starts for Teheran where he's given up 1 or 0 ER (3-0, 0.81 ERA in that stretch). He also has 2.35 ERA in 25 previous starts vs. the Mets. 

While this may seem like it sets up as a good old fashioned pitcher's duel, the fact is deGrom is favored and deserves to be. Yes, the Braves have been red hot (MLB-best 13-3 in June) and lead the National League East. But I'm not sure I'm ready to buy them long-term. The offense is certainly set to slow down here facing deGrom and I think Teheran is set to slow down as well. 8* NY Mets

8* Toronto RUN LINE (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays at +1.5. I was set to make this very same wager last night. But Toronto made a last minute pitching change, thereby rendering the play "no action." It's a good thing too, as they lost 10-5 to the Angels. But I'll come back w/ TOR +1.5 today as we're assured of having a much more capable starter on the mound (Marcus Stroman). Though the Angels are 4-0 vs. the Blue Jays so far in 2019, I'm not convinced they are a demonstrably better ballclub in any real, tangible way. 

Stroman definitely looked good his last time out, which ended up being a rare Toronto win. He allowed just two runs - only one earned - across six innings as the Blue Jays beat Baltimore. It was also the fifth time in the last six starts that Stroman allowed 3 ER or fewer. Last night's pitching was a disaster for Toronto as Edwin Jackson came in during the second inning and allowed seven runs. That's not going to happen w/ Stroman on the mound. While the Jays definitely have been struggling this year, what makes yday's defeat so disappointing is the fact they were coming off a big 12-0 win over Houston on Sunday. 

With the win yday, the Angels moved within a game of .500. This isn't the first time they've had a chance to pull "even" on the season and every time previous seems to follow a predictable pattern. The last seven times LA has had a chance to move to .500, they have lost. Tyler Skaggs will start for them on Tuesday and quality starts from him have been few and far between, especially on the road where his ERA (6.11) and WHIP (1.471) are both poor. Last night's game couldn't have gotten off to a better start for the Angels, but I expect the Blue Jays to get revenge here. 8* Toronto RUN LINE (+1.5)

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): What's this? A play on the Pirates? If you're a regular follower, then you know the Bucs are a team I've heavily targeted as a FADE in recent weeks due to them having a YTD run differential that was indicative of a team that should have a much worse record. Sure enough, the ship has been sinking fast here as they've lost 19 of their last 27 games, including 8 of their last 10. But after taking 2 of 3 from Miami over the weekend, the Bucs couldn't have asked for a better opponent to start the week than the Tigers, who have dropped 23 of 30, including four straight. 

Like the Pirates, the Tigers have a very poor run differential. In fact, at -132, Detroit has the second worst run differential in the sport (Baltimore). Both of these teams probably should have fewer wins then, but run diff says the Tigers have played to the level of a team that should only have 20 wins. They've scored the fewest runs in all of MLB and now head to a National League park, which means the DH will be substituted for the pitcher coming up to bat. The Tigers are just 3-10 in interleague play this season and 15-37 vs. the NL the L3 seasons. 

Over the weekend, Detroit got swept at home by Cleveland including a shutout loss on Sunday. They've scored more than four runs just one time in the L10 games. Daniel Norris will get the start for them in this series opener. Norris has lost both IL starts this season and the team is just 3-12 the L15 times he's taken the mound dating back to last season. Rookie Mitch Keller goes for Pittsburgh. While it's been a rough start for Keller (who was called into starting duty due to injuries in the rotation), this is the weakest lineup in MLB he'll be facing here. The Pirates are 7-2 vs. American League teams this season and 32-17 the L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Turns out that the Tigers were just what the "doctor ordered" for the Indians. They swept them (in Detroit) and are now four games over .500 (37-33) heading into what shapes up as a pretty important early season series w/ Texas. The Rangers still hold the 2nd Wild Card in the American League, but I played against them yday and they lost 11-3 to Cincinnati. It's down to a one-half game lead over Cleveland for that last WC spot, but there's obviously still a lot of baseball to be played. The fact the Indians come in as a slight betting favorite for Monday's opener "tells a story" in my view and I'll back the Tribe here. 

The Rangers are the 2nd highest scoring team in baseball (Twins) but will have to contend w/ an Indians pitching staff that is top five in fewest runs allowed. It may not be saying much, but the Indians outscored the Tigers 25-6 in the three-game sweep. That included an 8-0 shutout Sunday behind Trevor Bauer. Mike Clevinger will look to follow suit here as he returns from the 60-day DL (back) here. Clevinger made only two starts before the injury, but had looked very good. In 12 scoreless innings of work, he'd allowed all of two hits and had 22 K's. Most importantly, Cleveland won both games. I think Clevinger can be a tremendous asset on an Indians' pitching staff that is already quite good. 

Texas has been one of the biggest surprises in the league so far. They lost 95 games last season. While a strong home team so far (24-12), it remains to be seen whether or not they can continue the current pace. Lance Lynn gets the start here. While he is unbeaten at home (4-0 in six starts), his ERA is 4.91 and his WHIP is 1.418. So it's not as if he's been dominant. Note Texas is 1-6 their L7 home games following a road trip of 7+ days. So, historically speaking, this has not been a good spot for them. 10* Cleveland

8* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): The Reds are a team I've previously stumped for as being better than their overall record. But that wouldn't be apparent by watching this series. They've dropped two straight to the Rangers, who are clearly exceeding expectations at this point. But back to Cincy. They have outscored the opposition by 38 runs this season, yet are somehow eight games below .500. That run differential is fourth best in the entire National League and more than three times first place Milwaukee! According to run differential, the Reds should be eight games ABOVE .500, not below. I believe they avoid the sweep Sunday behind Sonny Gray.

Texas has been one of the biggest surprises in either league thus far. As of now, they'd actually be a Wild Card team in the American League! That's quite the improvement for a club that lost 95 games a year ago. But despite winning each of the last two days here at Great American Ballpark, the Rangers are still just 14-20 on the road. Let's not forget the loss of the DH by this being an interleague series. The Rangers really benefitted from three Reds' errors in yday's 4-3 victory. Not saying they wouldn't have won otherwise, but it's something that probably won't happen again today. 

Gray has had past success pitching against Texas. He's 8-3 in his career against them w/ two shutouts and a 2.72 ERA in 13 starts. I expect him to outpitch Ariel Jurado, even though the latter has made four straight quality starts and won his last three. Jurado has allowed a HR in each of those L4 starts. Gray hasn't given up any in his L4 and also hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any start all year. He's made 13 starts to Jurado's five. Lost in the fact Texas has scored the second most runs in all of MLB is that Cincy has allowed the second fewest (#1 in NL). 8* Cincinnati