10* Mississippi (9:00 ET): It speaks volumes that Missouri, ranked #10 in the country, would be an underdog here. Of course, if you’ve been following my commentary this season, you’d already know that I feel Mizzou is among the most overrated teams by the pollsters. They barely crack my top 30 and according to KenPom, they have a top 11 “luck” rating. While the Tigers did produce arguably their most impressive win of the season, 68-65 over Alabama, I think all that does is produce an opportune time to fade. That’s what I’m doing here. 

Ole Miss is a top 20 team in the country in terms of defensive efficiency, so they are no slouch. In their last two games, the Rebels have upset both Tennessee and Auburn, two teams that have already beaten Missouri this year. Ole Miss has actually beaten all three teams Mizzou has lost to. On January 19th, they went to Starkville and beat Miss State 64-46. Now Ole Miss did have to overcome a 14-point second half deficit to defeat Auburn in overtime. Devontae Shuler hit the GW basket with 0.2 seconds remaining. But color me impressed that the Rebels were able to win such a high-scoring game on the road. 

Both teams have had plenty of close calls recently with Ole Miss’ last two wins both coming by two points each and Missouri’s last three games all by five points or less, including an OT win of their own. But I once again point to the home team’s defensive capabilities as they are allowing just 59.7 PPG here in Oxford. Missouri missed 17 of its 20 three-point attempts vs. Alabama and nearly blew a 20+ point lead. The Tigers are just not an efficient team offensively (9th in the SEC) and they make just 29% of their 3PA on the road. Starter Javon Pickett may be out again as well. This is NOT an upset (though it will be considered one). 10* Mississippi

analysis soon

10* Over Hawks/Mavs (7:35 ET): I cashed the Over when these teams met last week in Atlanta. At the time, Dallas was on a six-game losing streak and totally desperate for a win. They’ve now won three of their last four and every one of those games have gone Over the total. Since beating the Hawks 122-116, the Mavs split a pair of games with Golden State and then defeated Minnesota 127-122 Monday night. They’ve averaged 124.75 points these L4 games and have scored at least 116 in all of them. 

Atlanta also is off a win. They had previously lost three in a row with two sub-100 point games before cruising to a high-scoring, 132-121 win over Toronto on Saturday. The three days off before this rematch were always “on the books;” this was not a case of COVID-19 postponing any games. The only previous time the Hawks played with this much rest was on 1/15 at Utah and that game did not go well as they lost 116-92. I am expecting a lot more points here from two teams that both topped 125 in their last games. 

The Hawks shot 50% from the floor in last week’s meeting, but that wasn’t enough to overcome 27 points from Luka Doncic and a 69-point second half from the Mavericks, who made 23 of 25 free throws. The teams also combined to make 27 three-pointers. Atlanta has been more of an “Under team” this year, especially on the road, but just shot a blistering 56.8% from the field in their last game. Dallas has not only scored 116+ in each of the L4 games, they’ve also given up at least 116 in all four. 10* Over Hawks/Mavs

8* Furman (5:00 ET): These teams just met Monday and I had Furman, who went out and delivered a convincing 68-49 win as 4-point favorites. In light of that result, I’m a little surprised the Paladins are getting points in this immediate rematch, even with the game taking place in Greensboro. As discussed in my previous analysis, UNC Greensboro had really been beating up on the “lesser” SoCon (Southern Conference) teams in building up a seven-game win streak. Meanwhile, Furman had been underachieving. This will be the first time since Dec 15th (at Alabama) that they are getting points! 

There was no underachieving Monday as the Paladins went out and built a double-digit halftime lead and rolled from there. What was most impressive (to me) is that they were able to win convincingly, despite not being at their offensive best. This is a team that averages an impressive 81.2 PPG for the year and they weren’t close to that Monday. They did however “tighten the screws” defensively, holding UNC Greensboro to just 29.0% shooting for the game, including 2 of 18 on three-point attempts. 

While you should expect UNC Greensboro to shoot better tonight at home, they are not a particularly great shooting team. In fact, the Spartans are making only 28.9% of their 3PA for the season and less than 42% of their shots overall. That was a major factor in me taking Furman in the last game and I see no reason to expect differently this evening. UNC Greensboro is only 5-4 SU at home this season, including outright losses to East Tennessee State and Wofford. Furman has four double digit scorers and is simply the better team here. 8* Furman

10* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): Sacramento is playing its best basketball of the season. They’ve won four straight, including upsets of the Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers, and seven of their last eight. They are also 8-0 ATS the L8 games. I view this as being somewhat improbable given where the Kings reside in my own power ratings, which is the bottom of the league. They are still dead last in defensive efficiency, which means no team gives up more points per possession than this one does. Tonight they host Eastern Conference leading Philadelphia and I believe the win streak comes to a crashing halt. 

The Sixers have been playing pretty well of late themselves. They are on a 5-1 SU/ATS run and just beat Brooklyn 124-108 on Saturday. Do I think the Sixers are better than Milwaukee? No, I don’t. But a definite case can be made that they are the East’s 2nd best team. They are 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, so that’s a massive edge there. While the Sixers sometimes struggle to score away from home (109.0 PPG), they shouldn’t here given the fact Sacramento is allowing a ghastly 120.5 PPG at home. 

The defense has improved for the Kings during the 8-0 ATS win streak, but the first month of the season tells me that kind of play won’t last. They’ve moved up to 7th in the Western Conference, but I don’t buy them as a potential playoff team, not even for a second. I’ve got them rated third WORST in the West, ahead of only OKC and Minnesota, who are the bottom two in the standings. Expect a slide to begin tonight. I’m laying the points with Philly as they’ve covered 10 of their previous 12 visits here. 10* Philadelphia

8* Under West Virginia/Texas Tech (9:00 ET): When these teams met on January 25th, they combined for 175 total points in an 88-87 WVU win. When I say “that’s a little bit shocking,” I’m definitely not referring to the fact the Mountaineers were able to pull out a win in Morgantown. No, it was shocking that they combined for that many points. Texas Tech is always considered one of the premier defensive teams in the entire country and this season has been no different as they are allowing just 61.7 points per game. Here at home, that number drops down to 56.5. So I expect this sequel to feature a lot less scoring than the “original.” 

In that first meeting, WVU shot a blistering 57.7% overall from the field, including 12 of 19 on three-pointers. Again, that just doesn’t happen when you’re facing Texas Tech. It’s not like WVU is a great shooting team. They make only 42.9% for the year. The 12 made threes were way more than their season average of 7.3 per game. With the change in home court advantage, expect different results this time as TT is allowing opponents to shoot just 27.9% from behind the arc in Lubbock.

West Virginia had another hot shooting game Saturday as they beat Kansas 91-79. That was their fourth straight game to go Over the total, a streak which began with the win over Texas Tech. But I remain adamant that the Mountaineers were cool off here. The Red Raiders also shot 50% from three-point range in their last game, but that was against a lousy Kansas State squad. They’ve had a couple sub-36.0% shooting efforts recently. It takes some “chutzpah” to expect 40 less points this time around, but I’ll do it. 8* Under West Virginia/Texas Tech

10* Butler (9:00 ET): St. John’s has won six straight. They’ve covered eight in a row. Those streaks include outright wins over UConn and Villanova, who were ranked #23 and #3 respectively at the time of the upsets. The Red Storm have now won four straight on the road after prevailing at Providence Saturday. The 92-81 win was their third consecutive as a dog and the third time they went over 80 points in this win streak, although the other two occasions were against DePaul and Utah Valley State.

Butler is not having its best season. The Bulldogs are just 6-10 SU on the year, although they did just snap a three-game losing skid on Saturday with a 68-58 win and cover (were -5.5) over DePaul. It was the second consecutive game that they covered as they closed +4.5 in a 70-67 loss at Marquette exactly one week ago. I took them there, noting this was now a deeper team with East Tennessee State transfer Bo Hodges being granted eligibility. Christian David also made his debut two weeks ago vs. Xavier and starter Aaron Thompson missed five games earlier in the year. 

Butler has a win over Creighton, so it’s not as if they are incapable of beating quality teams. They have certainly made a habit of beating St. John’s here at Hinkle Fieldhouse. They are 6-0 SU/ATS the L6 times hosting the Johnnies. Last year was a 22-point win here. This is a revenge game after Butler lost by 12 (69-57) in MSG last month. The Red Storm don’t defend as well on the road, giving up 79.9 PPG. They are due for a “slip-up.” 10* Butler

10* San Diego State (11:00 ET): San Jose State has improbably won three in a row, all as underdogs. For much of this season, the Spartans have been one of the absolute worst teams in the country. I should point out that the three wins came against New Mexico and Air Force, who are a combined 3-22 SU in conference play. There is no doubt that the SJSU win streak is going to come to an end tonight at San Diego State, but is this massive pointspread justified? I think so! 

San Diego State has won four in a row, all by at least 27 points. They swept Air Force and Wyoming and are now 13-4 SU on the season. They are trying to track down the top three teams in the MWC (Utah State, Colorado State and Boise State) and have a few games in hand. There’s a good chance the Aztecs will be on an eight-game win streak by the time they head to Boise to conclude the regular season. They’ve been off for more than a week as last week’s games vs. New Mexico were postponed, so they should be itching to get back on the court here.

Making the task tougher for San Jose State here is the possibility that leading scorer Richard Washington may miss the game. Washington isn’t just the team’s leading scorer, he leads the entire MWC at 20.7 PPG. The Spartans did win without him against Air Force, but this is obviously a much taller order. Since January 22nd, San Diego State is 1st in the country in both points per game (93.5) and scoring differential (+31.5 per game). They’ve scored 87 or more in four straight games for the first time since 1971. San Jose State is among the very worst teams in the country defensively (335th in efficiency), not to mention last in the MWC in both PPG allowed and rebounding margin. 10* San Diego State

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): The Cavaliers had been surprisingly competitive for the first month of the season, but things have gone a bit “sideways” for them recently. They’ve lost five of six with the only win coming by two at home over Minnesota. They are 0-6 ATS in those six games. The last three have all been blowout losses, but two of them were against Milwaukee and the other vs. the Clippers. The news that Larry Nance Jr will miss 4-6 weeks with a broken finger isn’t good, but the spot is tonight as I’m going to take the points here in Phoenix, who is in the second night of a back to back. 

The Suns beat Boston last night, 100-91, which was their second straight win and fifth in the last six games. The two wins against Dallas were games they easily could have lost. Both were fourth quarter comebacks. In the first, they trailed by 15 in the second half. The second required a Devin Booker GW 3-pointer with just 1.5 seconds left. After losing in New Orleans (by 22), the Suns bounced back with a win over lowly Detroit and then came last night when they held the Celtics to just 35.5% shooting from the field.

Despite the Celtics not shooting the ball well, things got close at the end with the Suns ahead by only five points with less than three minutes to go. Though Cleveland is not noted as a great offensive team, I’ll project them to shoot the ball a lot better than Boston did last night. Nance is hardly the team’s primary offensive weapon. Collin Sexton leads the team with 23.2 PPG while Andre Drummon is averaging 18.6 points and 14.2 rebounds. Jarrett Allen is shooting 67% from the field in the L10 games. 10* Cleveland

8* Furman (5:00 ET): UNC Greensboro has won 7 straight and now leads the SoCon (Southern Conference) by percentage points over preseason favorite Wofford. Any time a team can put together a win streak of this length, you’ve got to “tip your cap.” However, in this instance, it’s hard to look past the fact the Spartans have really been beating up on the bottom of the conference. All seven victories have been at the expense of the bottom six with four of them coming against the bottom three. 

Now Furman has been trending in the opposite direction of late as they’ve lost three of their four games. They are 0-4 ATS as well. Two of the three losses were on the road though and the one at home was against Wofford. That was on Saturday and the Paladins really faltered down the stretch in their first home loss of the season. Leading scorer Mike Bothwell had just two points in the game and was 0 for 4 from three-point range. Furman led at the half and by 9 with just over 10 minutes to go. But Wofford outscored them 20-13 over the final six minutes to “steal” the win. 

Furman averages 81.9 PPG with a 49.1 FG%, so the kind of shooting we saw Saturday was uncharacteristic to say the least. Meanwhile, UNC Greensboro was only tied at the half with The Citadel their last time out (Wednesday) and actually got outrebounded for the game. The Spartans also shot much better in that game than they do normally. Their season-long FG% is only 42.6% and they really struggle from three-point range (29.3%). I think this is a great spot to step in and take Furman laying a short number at home. 8* Furman

8* Atletico Madrid (3:00 ET): Atletico Madrid hasn’t won a La Liga title since 2013-14, but they seem well on their way this season. For my money, this has been the best side in all of Europe this campaign, even better than Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. Even with Barcelona winning yesterday (big win for me!), Atletico Madrid is still seven points clear at the top of the table. They’ve won 16, drawn twice and lost only once in the Spanish top flight so far and have conceded just 10 goals all season. The Red and Whites are going for their 9th straight La Liga win Monday and I consider this to be absurdly cheap price. 

Celta de Vigo is the opposition this week. They currently sit in the middle of the table, in 11th place, with only 25 points and a -7 goal differential. Recent form hasn’t been good either as the Sky Blues are winless in their L5 La Liga matches, though they’ve drawn in each of the last two. Still, those draws came against Eibar and Granada, a whole different class of opponent compared to what they’ll face here. Not only has Atletico Madrid conceded the fewest number of goals in all of La Liga (it’s not even close), but they’ve scored the second most. It was 2-0 in the reverse fixture back in October. 

I anticipate a similar score on Monday as Atletico is almost impossible to beat here at home. They’ve conceded only three times all year here! They’ve won 9 of the 10 matches as well. Celta de Vigo has won only one time in 11 away matches this season. Can’t even see them being able to earn a third straight draw this week. I backed Atletico a few weeks ago against Eibar and thought that was an insanely cheap price. At Wanda Metropolitano, this one may be an even better bargain. 8* Atletico Madrid

10* Tampa Bay (6:30 ET): I opened my analysis of the AFC Championship Game by pointing to the fact that there was a much different “feeling” surrounding the Chiefs going into the penultimate game of the season. While last year’s Super Bowl winning team closed on a 9-0 ATS run, this year’s edition was just 1-8 ATS its L9 going into last week. And even that one cover came with a bit of an “asterisk.” Many (myself included) were able to grab the Saints +3.5 in that game, which ended up being a 32-29 KC victory. Nevertheless, I still laid the points with the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, so I was quite happy to see them dispose of the Bills 38-24. But I think Super Bowl LV is going to be a different story. There’s only so many times that a team can continually dig itself out of early holes. 

If you’re wondering how I can go from taking to fading the Chiefs, the answer is pretty simple. They’re facing a better team in the Super Bowl than they did in the AFC Championship. In fact, I believe the better team is getting points in Super Bowl LV. At least that’s what the power ratings say. I’m certainly not going to pass up this opportunity to take the points with a team that’s now 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season, including the B2B upsets of New Orleans and Green Bay to get here. This will be just the second time Tom Brady is an underdog in the Super Bowl. The first was all the way back in 2002, his 1st SB appearance, when the Patriots upset the Rams as 14-point underdogs. Brady is now an incredible 41-17-1 ATS all-time as a dog in his career. 

This is a rematch from the regular season, a game that was won by the Chiefs 27-24. They didn’t cover though (were -5). It just so happens that was the rare occasion where KC got off to a hot start (led 17-0 after 1Q). But they let the Bucs in through the back door. Getting off to good starts has NOT happened for the Chiefs in the playoffs though as they’ve fallen behind by nine points or more in four of their last five postseason contests. Do not forget this game is being played in Tampa Bay’s home stadium. That’s not as big of an edge as it would be in any other year, but it’s still an edge. Another key is that Chiefs could be without BOTH starting offensive tackles. We just saw the Bucs tremendous defensive front (#1 in the league against the run) dominate a banged up Packers offensive line in the NFC Championship Game. I think it must be pointed out that the loss to the Chiefs came right before Tampa Bay’s (very) late season bye. Since then, they are 7-0 SU and averaging 34.2 PPG. They are a better team now than when they faced the Chiefs the 1st time. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Under Chiefs/Bucs (6:30 ET): So when these teams met in the regular season, they combined for 961 yards and all nine scoring drives went for at least 64 yards. Both offenses averaged 7.5 yards per play. Yet they finished with only 51 total points. That’s still a lot, but wasn’t enough to go Over a total of 59.0. While the stakes are much higher the second time around, the total is lower. But it’s still the second highest O/U line in Super Bowl history. The only one larger was four years ago when the Patriots played the Falcons. That game would have stayed Under had it not been for the Pats rallying from a 28-3 deficit to force overtime. Since ‘95, no SB w/ an OU line of 54.0 or higher has gone Over in regulation (5-0 Under). 

This game is being played in the Buccaneers’ home stadium. That doesn’t mean as much as it would in a “normal” year, but it’s worth noting the Bucs averaged fewer points per game at home than they did on the road this season. Those eight games averaged 52.4 PPG. Chiefs’ road games averaged more total points than their home games (54.6 PPG), but that’s still just below the O/U line here. Going back to the regular season matchup (which was here in Tampa), the Chiefs scored 17 first quarter points and Tyreke Hill had 13 catches for 269 yards. None of that will happen again. 

The Bucs are #1 in the league against the run and their defense really dominated the Packers up front in the NFC Championship Game. Like Green Bay, Kansas City is dealing with injuries along the offensive line. Obviously, everyone is going to expect a shootout on Sunday and will want to bet the Over, but like last year I’m going Under. The last two Super Bowls have gone Under. The Under is 22-9 since 2015 in Tom Brady starts where the total was 50+.  8* Under Chiefs/Bucs

10* Boise State (4:00 ET): Boise State fell 74-72 Thursday night in Reno. They’ve now dropped two of three after winning 13 straight and now trail Utah State by a half-game in the race for 1st in the Mountain West. The Broncos certainly had their chances to win Thursday. They missed the potential game-winning three in the closing seconds after giving up the go-ahead basket with just seconds left. Then there’s the fact they also led at halftime. They’ve now lost five straight times at Nevada. But they get an immediate shot at revenge and I’m laying the points in this one. 

Both teams have been quite successful at the betting window this season. Boise State is 10-5-1 ATS. Nevada is 14-5 ATS, among the most profitable teams in the entire country. The Wolf Pack are now 4-0 ATS taking points after winning outright as 5-points dogs the other night. Boise State has been favored in every conference game so far, so a 7-4-1 ATS record there is pretty impressive. Six of their first seven MWC wins were by double digits.

Then there is a fact that the Broncos are 13-3 ATS coming off a loss the last few seasons. When they were blown out at Colorado State 78-56 last Wednesday, they bounced back two days later with a dominant win of their own, 85-77. Their only other loss this season was the opener at Houston, a legit Top 10 team. From that, the Broncos responded with 31-point victory their next time out. It won’t be that easy here, but I expect them to come through with a win that’s larger than the spread. This is a team that’s allowing only 42.1% shooting for the season. Nevada won’t shoot 52.6% again. 10* Boise State

10* Barcelona (3:00 ET): I have been waiting patiently for the right time to fade Real Betis and wouldn’t you know that time is Super Sunday? Now it’s definitely a good thing I haven’t decided to fade Betis previous to this, at least in La Liga competition, as they’re unbeaten in their last five in the Spanish top flight. That has them 7th in the table (as of this writing), but a -7 YTD goal differential and nine losses this season tell me this side is more “pretender” than “contender.” They’ve really been beating up on some of the “lesser” La Liga sides of late, but now they must face Barcelona, winners of five straight across all competitions.

Midweek saw both sides take part in quarterfinal action in the Copa del Rey. Barca advanced with a wild 5-3 win over Granada, but Betis was not as fortunate, losing on penalties to Athletic Bilbao. That was Betis’ first defeat in any competition since the New Year, ending an eight-game run across all competitions. But as I said earlier, they’ve mainly been winning against sides at the bottom of the table. They’ve yet to defeat anyone in the top six this La Liga season and lost the reverse fixture to Barcelona 5-2 back on November 7th. They’ve now lost four straight to Barca. 

While it is unlikely anyone catches Atletico Madrid for the top spot in the La Liga table, Barcelona is a good bet to finish second as they are unbeaten here since the start of December. They have the second best goal differential (+23) so there’s nothing at all “phony” about this run and I certainly see Barca scoring multiple goals in this one, considering their 41 on the season is tops in La Liga while Betis’ has conceded a league-high 34 times. Again, that’s another reason to doubt Betis moving forward, considering they’ve conceded more goals than anybody else. They are long overdue to lose a league match. 10* Barcelona

10* Over Wizards/Hornets (1:05 ET): Washington has now been back on the court for eight games since their two-week hiatus due to COVID-19. They’ve won only twice, both times by just three points. One of those wins I was on. It was the wild 149-146 win over Brooklyn last Sunday. While the Wizards easily covered (+9), it was a game they probably should have lost. The only other win came Wednesday, again as nine-point underdogs, 103-100 over Miami. The Wiz subsequently lost to the Heat 122-95 on Friday. 

Charlotte has been better than I’d anticipated so far as they’re a respectable 10-13 SU. They’ve been an underdog in 17 of the 23 games. They’re coming in off B2B losses, both here at home, as they faced Philadelphia and Utah. Those were a couple tough opponents, so you can’t really be surprised at the end results. Still, you have to be concerned any time a team gives up 138 points like the Hornets did Friday against the Jazz. It was their fourth consecutive game to go Over the total. 

For Washington, Bradley Beal opened the last game by missing his first 13 shots. Needless to say, I don’t think we’ll see that again. Beal leads the league in scoring at 33.3 PPG. The Hornets’ last five opponents have averaged 117.2 PPG on 48.8% shooting. You should also expect the Wizards to give up plenty of points here as well. They are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. Charlotte has topped 120 in three of its last four games and is 4th in the conference in fast break points. Washington is #1 in the league in pace. 10* Over Wizards/Hornets

7* Alexander Volkoff (10:45 ET): This is the main event of the show, so it’s scheduled for five rounds in the Heavyweight Division. Both of these fighters are ranked in the top six. Overeem is actually one spot higher, yet Volkoff is the prohibitive favorite. Originally, I was looking to take the Over in this fight, but the number moved (a full round!). So I’ll roll with the favorite instead as Volkoff should pick up arguably the most important win of his career here.

At 40 years of age, Overeem is definitely a veteran of the sport. But so is Volkoff, despite being eight years younger than his opponent here. He’s also the better striker. In fact, he might be the best striker in the entire division. He’s hit the 100-strike mark in three of his eight UFC fights! The former Bellator Heavyweight Champ is now 32-8 in his pro career and coming off a TKO win over Walt Harris back in October.

Overeem has been knocked out 14 different times in his career, which doesn’t really bode well against the excellent striker Volkoff. Overeem has done it all, his win over Brock Lesnar back in 2011 being the possible high point, and he too defeated Harris in 2020. He followed that with another TKO victory over Augusto Sakai in September. But let us not forget that Overeem is still just 4-3 over his last seven fights and was stopped in all three losses. The majority of this fight figures to take place standing and the edge goes to Volkoff. 7* Alexander Volkoff

8* Under Grizzlies/Pelicans (9:05 ET): It was a razor-thin win with the Under (half-point!) on the Pelicans’ matchup with the Pacers last night, but I’m coming right back with the same bet again Saturday as they turn around and host the Grizzlies. As discussed in yday’s analysis, New Orleans had been going Over a lot recently; 8 of 9 games prior to last night. Friday also marked the first time in 15 games that the Pelicans won without scoring 123 or more points. Look for their play on the defensive end to continue to improve here. 

Memphis opened February with a dominating 133-102 win in San Antonio. It was their seventh consecutive win at the time. But now they’ve dropped two in a row, 134-116 at Indiana and 115-103 at home vs. Houston. The hideous defensive effort against the Pacers came on the second night of a back to back. But there was no such excuse for the loss to the Rockets, which surprised me. I should point out that the Grizzlies' games are averaging “just” 219.1 PPG this season, which is comfortably below the total here. 

This will be just the second back to back for the Pelicans so far this season. The first was last Saturday and did not go well as they gave up 126 in a 14-point loss to the Rockets. Expect a better defensive effort this time around though. Despite allowing the Pacers to hit 20 of 42 three-point attempts, the Pelicans only allowed 113 points, which isn’t all that bad. Six of the last seven meetings with Memphis have stayed Under. I also don’t think the Pelicans are going to shoot as well as they have the last two games (around 52%). When the Grizzlies won those seven straight games, they were allowing an average of just 104.3 PPG. Look for them to get back to playing defense as well. 8* Under Grizzlies/Pelicans

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Given what transpired last night, I’m a little shocked the Magic opened as the underdogs here. It was a much needed 123-119 win for the home team on Friday and I backed them as underdogs. They got a career-best 43 points from Nikola Vucevic, who also had 19 rebounds. It was the just the 4th 40-15 game EVER by a Magic player and the first since 2017. I’m coming right back with Magic again tonight. 

My read on this matchup obviously hasn’t changed in the last 24 hours, so I’m going to recycle a good bit of yday’s anaylsis. The key for me is that Chicago just shouldn’t be favored on the road. They are bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency and now 0-2 ATS in the road chalk role this season. Yesterday marked their second loss in a row and fifth in the last six games. They are now giving up 118.8 PPG on the road, just a terrible number. Only Golden State and Brooklyn allow a higher average away from home. Unlike those two teams, the Bulls don’t have the necessary firepower to overcome the defensive deficiencies. 

Each of the last two games have seen the Bulls fall into a double digit hole. They trailed the Knicks by 17 after just one quarter Wednesday night, a game in which they ended up shooting 6 of 36 from three-point range. Last night they were behind by 14 in the fourth quarter. So the game was not “really” as close as the final score seemed to indicate. Chicago is just 1-4 SU on the second night of a back to back. Orlando is actually 2-0 SU/ATS coming off a SU win as a dog. Look for the home team to make it two in a row Saturday night. 10* Orlando

8* Sevilla (3:00 ET): As I’ve said many times before, the top six in the La Liga table have really separated themselves from “the rest of the herd.” Well, maybe not in terms of points just yet, but there’s only one side in the rest of the league with a positive goal differential and they (Athletic Bilbao) are only +2 and sitting in 11th place. Other than table leaders Atletico Madrid, who is way out in front (50 points) and just might be the best team in all of Europe this season, you won’t find a La Liga side in better form than Sevilla, who come into this fixture having won six straight across all competitions.

Midweek, Los Nervionenses (that’s Sevilla) ousted second tier side Almeria in the quarterfinals of the Copa del Rey tournament, setting up a semifinal showdown with Barcelona. The first leg will be next week. But now it's back to La Liga action here with a match against Getafe, who sit 12th and have scored only 17 goals this campaign, second fewest in the league. Last week was a goalless draw with Alaves. Now that was an upgrade over the previous week where they were taken to the woodshed by Athletic Bilbao, 5-1. Getafe’s away form has not been good this season as they have claimed only nine points from nine matches, winning only two. 

This is an important three points here for Sevilla, who could vault into second with a win, depending on what happens with Real Madrid earlier in the year. Regardless, they’d be no lower than third. The reigning Europa League Champions would love nothing more to “upgrade” to the Champions League next season and winning matches like this one is what provides that upgrade. Sevilla has been absolutely dominant of late, keeping four consecutive clean sheets. Given Getafe’s struggles scoring, this should be an easy one. 8* Sevilla

10* Saint Louis (2:00 ET): Perhaps no team in the entire COUNTRY has been more adversely affected by COVID-19 than the Saint Louis Billikens. The preseason favorites to win the Atlantic 10 were in the top 25 of my own power ratings when their season was paused around Christmas time. Unfortunately, the Billikens have gone 0-2 SU since returning to the court, losing outright to Dayton and La Salle over the L10 days. They’ve gotten only 10 games in all season and now must face arguably the hottest team in the A-10, St. Bonaventure, who has won seven in a row.

I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on Saint Louis. While adjustments obviously needed to be made by the linesmakers in the wake of the B2B upsets, this looks like a classic “overadjustment” to me. The Billikens had just four days of practice after not playing for 33 days when they took on Dayton. Then they had a game vs. Richmond postponed just minutes before the scheduled tipoff. Wednesday’s loss at La Salle was a genuine shocker (the Billikens were favored by 12) as they struggled again from three-point range. That’s been the problem in the two games as they are shooting a woeful 7 of 32 from behind the arc.

With more practice time and two games under their belt, you have to figure St. Louis’ shooting is destined to improve. They actually shot 51.8% overall against Dayton; it was just the three-point line that was the problem. Prior to the pause, this has been an excellent three-point shooting team (still 37.4% for the season). At the same time, the Bonnies aren’t going to shoot 61.4% again like they did vs George Mason (at home) last week. The A-10 leaders have been beating up on the bottom of the league while St. Louis has been out of the picture. The Bonnies’ road record could easily be 1-3 SU. 10* Saint Louis

7* Villareal (12:30 ET): Villareal, like Sevilla, is in the top six of the La Liga table. One of these sides is not making it to the Europa or Champions League. Of the six, it’s Villareal that’s got the lowest YTD goal differential (+9) but the Yellow Submarine can also claim to have the second fewest number of losses (2) in the entire top Spanish flight. They look to have an easy one on Saturday as they travel to face Elche, a struggling side I faded just last week. Let’s do it again. 

As discussed thoroughly in last week’s analysis, Elche is in very poor form right now. They added to it with a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Valencia last Saturday, something I was obviously glad to see. That now means they have just two wins in their last 17 fixtures across all competitions and both came against third tier sides in Spanish football. Their last La Liga victory came all the way back on October 23rd (against Valencia). This winless run now has them 19th in the table, second from the bottom and firmly in the relegation zone. 

The fact Villareal just got bounced from the Copa del Rey midweek (1-0 loss to Levante) has to be terribly disappointing, but Elche should be all too accommodating as they look to get over it. Considering it was a goalless draw the last time these two sides hooked up (back on December 6th), Villareal will take nothing for granted. They’ve also drawn in each of their last three La Liga fixtures, two coming versus “lesser” sides, so they are DESPERATE for the three points Saturday. I say they get it. 8* Villareal

8* Juventus (12:00 ET): Will this be the season that Juventus’ nine-year run atop Serie A ends? Well, they are currently just 4th in the table, eight points back of Inter Milan after Friday. However, Juve have two matches in hand and don’t think for a second they aren’t in fine form. Because they are. They’ve won five straight across all competitions and just won the first leg of their Coppa Italia semi final battle with Inter by a score of 2-1. Prior to that, they’d kept four consecutive clean sheets.

Third place Roma is the opposition for Juve this week. Roma treated me well last week by downing Hellas Verona 3-1. That was my 10* Soccer Game of the Month. The win kept them in third, one point ahead of Juventus. But I detailed some of the folly this side has delivered recently and that really can’t be ignored. I looked past it in a revenge spot against an inferior side, but this is a much different situation as Juventus has actually not beaten Roma in either of the previous two fixtures. But one of those was late last season when Juve already had the Serie A title wrapped up.

Juventus is tied with both Inter and AC Milan for the fewest number of losses in the league (2). They also have a better YTD goal differential compared to Roma (+21 vs. +11) despite having played one fewer match. Another significant edge is that Juventus has conceded the fewest number of goals in Serie A (18). Roma has conceded 33 times, easily the most of any side in the top half of the table. Prior to beating Hellas Verona last week, Roma had won just one of the previous three across all competitions, including the humiliating Coppa Italia exit due to bringing on an extra substitute. They also aren’t at home this week (where they’ve yet to lose). Their away form is much poorer and there’s the fact they’ve yet to defeat any of the top eight teams in the league. 8* Juventus

analysis soon

8* Cal Baptist (9:00 ET): I’m a bit stunned to see this line so high. My own power ratings suggest a much tighter spread is appropriate. The game will take place in Las Cruces, the first time NMSU has gotten to play on their home floor since COVID restrictions were lifted in the state. But home court advantage is still not enough to justify the Aggies laying so many points. They have just six games under their belt this season and only three since the New Year. They were swept last weekend at Grand Canyon.

Cal Baptist is coming off a disheartening home loss to Dixie State their last time out. The Lancers were 9.5-point favorites for that one, but fell 79-75 as 9.5-point chalk. That loss snapped a 5-game win streak. The Lancers led by as many as 7 points in the second half, so it’s a game they could have won. While they’ve yet to win on the road this season (0-3), two of three losses have come by single digits. One was against USC in the season opener. Another was by only four points at Utah Valley State. They are 15-7 ATS L22 as an underdog.

New Mexico State has not beaten a single D-I foe this season, so I have no unearthly idea why they’d be favored by so many points here. Their three wins have come against Western New Mexico, Benedictine (AZ) and Arizona Christian. They are 0-3 otherwise, though all those games were on the road. Still, the Aggies scored just 53 points in their last game and can’t possibly be trusted to cover a spread like this. They shot just 36.5% from the field on Saturday and were down by as many as 17. This spread simply looks to be way off. 8* Cal Baptist

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): This has been a very frustrating season for the Magic thus far. They actually have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference and are just 4-13 SU in non-division games. This is a non-division game and they come in having lost four in a row overall and three straight at home. Injuries have been a problem with the latest being forward Aaron Gordon’s ankle, which will keep him out at least a month. The Magic are already without Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac for the rest of the season. 

Chicago has been a “tough out” for much of the season so far, a little surprising, but has also not played well of late. They come into tonight’s game having lost four of five. This will be the first of two in a row in Orlando for the Bulls, who are also dealing with injuries to Otto Porter and Wendell Carter (neither will play tonight). The Bulls have been “road warriors” so far this season with an 8-2 ATS record away from home, however, this will be just the second time they’ve been favored.

The only other time Chicago has been favored away from home this season was 1/15 at Oklahoma City and they lost that game 127-125, in overtime. They also just lost to the Knicks, 107-103 as home favorites, Wednesday night. They fell behind by 17 after the first quarter and shot 6 of 36 from 3-point range. As bad as Orlando has looked recently, I don’t think Chicago should be laying points on the road to anyone as they are still bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a game the Magic really need to win. 10* Orlando

8* Under Pelicans/Pacers (7:05 ET): The Pelicans come into this game off a 123-101 win against Phoenix. That was arguably their best effort in weeks. It was just the fourth win in the last 14 games and what’s interesting there is they’ve scored 123 or more in all four victories. They are 0-10 when not hitting that benchmark. Tonight they’ve got to like their chances against an Indiana team that just gave up 130 on Wednesday, but that was to Milwaukee. I don’t see New Orleans getting to 123 points tonight. 

The Pacers are just 4-6 SU their last 10 games after the blowout loss to the Bucks 48 hours ago. What’s so disappointing is not just that they trailed by as many as 40 points in Milwaukee, but they were coming off a 134-point effort against a previously red hot Memphis team the night prior. It was the worst defensive effort of the season vs. the Bucks, in terms of points allowed in the first half and a game. They also let Milwaukee hit 21 three-pointers, the most EVER by a Pacers’ opponent. You’ve got to bank on the idea that Indiana will come out and play better defense tonight. 

Obviously, both teams have been going Over a lot recently. Indiana in three straight games, New Orleans in 8 of its last 9. As a result, the O/U line tonight is much higher than it was when these teams played last month (216). That game went Over, but only did so because of overtime. The Under is 20-8 for Indiana coming off a game where they allowed 125+ points. Their games have averaged 226.1 PPG this season, which is just under where this number is. Pelicans’ games are at 223.5. I think we’re heading for a surprisingly “low-scoring game” here. 8* Under Pelicans/Pacers

10* Memphis (9:05 ET): These have been two of the league’s hotter teams recently. However, both are off a SU loss. The Grizzlies had their seven-game win streak come to an end Tuesday night in Indiana as they were beaten pretty emphatically, 134-116. It was the second night of a back to back where they were coming off a 31-point win in San Antonio. The Rockets had their six-game win streak end last night in Oklahoma City as they got beat 104-87. Now they are in the second night of a back to back, a situation they’ve somehow managed to be in just one other time all season. 

Memphis is currently tied for 5th in the Western Conference right now with a 9-7 SU record. After opening 0-5 at home, they’ve now won three straight here, beating the Nets, Sixers and Suns, which is an impressive list of teams. This is a top five team in the league in defensive efficiency and they’ve done well coming off a DD loss this season, going 3-1 ATS in that spot. As they know from Tuesday, being rested can be a significant edge when your opponent isn’t and that’s a major reason we’re backing the Grizz in this one. 

Houston didn’t have John Wall in the lineup last night, tonight they’ll be without Victor Oladipo. This is part of the “load management” strategy as both are still recovering from injuries. As mentioned above, the Rockets scored just 87 points last night, a far cry from the “James Harden days” and what they’d done Monday vs. Thunder (scored 136). I think it’s pretty remarkable that this is just the second time the Rockets are in the second night of a back to back this season. It’s also their third road game in four nights and fourth in the last six. They are 2-7 ATS L9 on no rest and 2-11 ATS L13 off a DD loss. 10* Memphis

8* Eastern Illinois (8:30 ET): Yes, I’m going to fade Belmont again. This will be the third straight time as the Bruins’ unbeaten run through the OVC has come very close to ending each of their last two times out. I cashed both Austin Peay and Murray State in the last week vs. Belmont, games the Bruins easily could have lost outright. They beat Austin Peay by five and Murray State by one. Now they are laying big points to Tony Romo’s alma mater in what is their third straight road game. 

While you should take the points, this third OVC play in this report has the potential to be a major upset. Remember that I’ve already cashed Miami over Duke and East Carolina over Houston this week, both were double digit dogs that took the game outright. Belmont (12-0 vs OVC) has the most conference wins without a loss in the country and is certainly “due” to drop a game after the narrow escapes we’ve seen recently. They trailed at the half in each of those L2 games. 

Eastern Illinois ended a LONG losing streak (8 games) with a 70-61 win over SIU Edwardsville on Tuesday. Five of those eight losses came as a favorite, so the Panthers have definitely underachieved this year. They were actually 0-8 ATS in those eight SU losses! But this is the most points they’ll get all season (in conference play) and it’s at home. Talk about motivation - they’ve lost eight straight times to Belmont. But six of those were on the road. This is a team that doesn’t get blown out often. 8* Eastern Illinois

8* Austin Peay (7:00 ET): Like I said in the Murray State writeup, I’m in love with this OVC card tonight! In addition to cashing Murray State against Belmont as my 10* Game of the Month on Saturday, Austin Peay also cashed a winning ticket (for me) at Belmont’s expense recently. They too played the Bruins right down to the wire, only to come up just short of ending Belmont’s unbeaten OVC run. That game, which was on Thursday, saw the Governors lose by only five points. They’ve since beaten Tennessee State and SIU Edwardsville both by 15. 

Tonight, the Governors are at Eastern Kentucky, who is the second place team in the OVC. EKU is 14-2 overall and won nine straight. They’re also a perfect 8-0 SU at home. But shades of Morehead State (who I’m also fading tonight), the Colonials have really been beating up on the bottom of the OVC. Another similarity to that Morehead State fade is that this is a revenge game. Austin Peay lost the first time, by five at home, as a 4.5-point favorite. 

Eastern Kentucky was actually a dog at Jacksonville State over the weekend, which should tell you what the oddsmakers really think of them. They won, but by only four points, their third win by five or less in the past six games. Based on the early line movement, it certainly appears as if Austin Peay is getting some love from sharp bettors and they’ll get my love as well considering they are 3-1 ATS as a dog. EKU is due to lose. 8* Austin Peay

8* Murray State (7:00 ET): I’m in LOVE with the Ohio Valley Conference slate tonight! All three plays in this report come from the OVC, which I’ve been paying close attention to in recent weeks. Just last Saturday, Murray State was my 10* NCAAB Game of the Month as they covered the spread vs. unbeaten (in conference play) Belmont. Just 48 hours later, the Racers shook off that one-point loss by downing SE Missouri State 77-60 on the road. While this is now their third game in less than a week, we are getting a TON of value considering Murray State was a 13-point favorite when they hosted Morehead State earlier this season.

Now that first meeting is something Murray State would like to forget as they lost outright as 13-point chalk, 61-56. It was a dreadful shooting night for both teams, but what was truly remarkable is the Racers shooting just 13 of 31 on two-point attempts! Since that loss, the offense has gotten back on track. They’ve scored at least 71 in six straight games and are now 3-0 ATS in the last three. 

Morehead State has been a covering machine with seven straight ATS victories. They’ve also won nine in a row straight up. The OVC is shaping up to be a three-team race with them and Eastern Kentucky trying to track down Belmont. But, as is evident by this spread, the standings aren’t really representative of the power rankings. Other than the win over Murray State, Morehead has really been beating up on the bottom of the OVC. If Murray State was a 13-point favorite the first time around, they should be favored by a lot more in the rematch. Oddsmakers have overadjusted. 8* Murray State

10* Over Mavericks/Hawks (7:35 ET): I have to say that I’m a bit shocked to see Dallas on a six-game losing streak. Coming into the season, this is a team I expected to battle for a top four spot in the Western Conference. Instead, they are languishing closer to the bottom of the standings with an 8-12 SU record and a lot of “finger-pointing.” Just a few days ago, PG Luka Doncic went on record and said it was “looking like we didn’t care.” The Mavs better start caring or the rest of the West will leave them behind. 

Over in the Eastern Conference, Atlanta is a pretty nice story as they’ve climbed their way into the top six and look like one of the most improved teams in the entire league this season. They did come up short here at home against the Lakers Monday night, losing 107-99, but certainly no one is going to fault them for losing to LeBron and company. While “only” .500 on the season (10-10 SU), the Hawks have a positive point differential and efficiency rating, so they are “going places.”

Most of these losses for Dallas have been close with the most recent (109-108 vs. Phoenix) being decided on a Devin Booker jumper with 1.5 seconds remaining. I still have faith that they’ll eventually turn things around. As for this game, look for both them and the Hawks to increase their scoring from the respective last games. The Mavs led the NBA in offensive efficiency last season, yet have not broken 110 in four consecutive games. Atlanta has been an “Under team” as well, but has seen an uptick in the L5 games. They are 12-2 to the Over L14 games as a home dog. 10* Over Mavericks/Hawks

8* LSU (7:00 ET): This is a giant revenge game for the Bayou Bengals, who lost by 30 (at home!) to Alabama last month. As you can guess from the score (105-75), nothing went right for them that night in Baton Rouge. The tailspin began right away with Alabama opening the game on a 23-4 run. The margin grew to 31 before halftime and never dropped below 26 in the 2H. The Crimson Tide set a SEC record in that game with 23 made three-pointers. Quite obviously, it can’t possibly be THAT ugly for LSU tonight.

Despite what happened to them in the first meeting, LSU is a good team. They come in at 11-5 SU and could have beaten #13 Texas Tech on Saturday. They lost that game by only five points and had a seven-point lead with just over a minute to go. It was the Tigers’ third loss in four games, which goes back to the debacle vs. Bama, so it’s getting to be “desperation time” for Will Wade’s team. Considering they’ve only been beaten twice by more than five points this year, I’ll be taking the points. 

Alabama is also off a loss in the Big 12-SEC Challenge, theirs coming here in Tuscaloosa against an Oklahoma team that was playing without two starters, one of which was Austin Reaves (leading scorer). That snapped a 10-game win streak for the Tide, who are still unbeaten in SEC games (9-0 SU). Only two other teams in the country (Baylor, Belmont) are 9-0 or better in conference play and I can’t see the Tide running the table in the SEC. LSU’s top four scorers were all held below their season averages (in points) the first time around. This time they make a game of it. 8* LSU

8* Kentucky (7:00 ET): UK missed its opportunity to face #6 Texas over the weekend, which may have been for the best seeing as how I don’t think that’s a game they would have won. COVID-19 not only cancelled the Texas game, but pushed this one vs. Missouri back a day. This has obviously not been a typical season in Lexington as the Wildcats are just 5-10 SU and barring some unforeseen run in the SEC Tournament, they will NOT be a participant in March Madness. However, I do see them playing “spoiler” in this spot. 

Missouri is the team that my power rankings differ from the pollsters the most on. The Tigers come into this game ranked #16 in the country, but my power ratings have them just inside the Top 40. The KenPom ratings, which I think are very useful, agree with me. Cuonzo Martin’s team really pulled a “rabbit out of the hat” on Saturday, coming back from a late 12-point deficit to beat TCU in overtime, 102-98. They never came close to covering the 10-point spread though. 

This is the first of two big games in Columbia this week as Mizzou will also host Alabama on Saturday. Might they actually look past UK then? Bottom line is I expect the Tigers to start dropping some games. They are 2-6 ATS after allowing 80+ points and 0-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Kentucky is 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The last time we saw Coach Cal, his team was leading at Alabama with less than five minutes remaining. They imploded down the stretch and failed to cover the 7-point spread, but I think they get the money here. Take the points. 8* Kentucky

8* East Carolina (6:00 ET): #5 Houston has undoubtedly been red hot as of late. They went 8-0 in January with the last six wins all coming by 17 points or greater. They’ve covered four straight times. Sunday saw them decimate SMU, 70-48, as a 9.5-point home favorite. You’ll notice that 17-point benchmark is basically what the oddsmakers are looking for tonight as the Cougars, now ranked #5 in the country, travel to face East Carolina. As good a team as this is, it’s obviously not easy to keep winning games by such a large margin. So I’ll be taking the points in this one. 

East Carolina’s January went a lot differently than Houston’s. The Pirates were 0-5 SU/ATS last month while having to deal with a two-week pause due to COVID. Their last win came all the way back on December 22nd against Tulane. Conference play has gone much differently than non-conference play did for ECU. While they’ve beaten all six non-conf opponents this year, they are just 1-6 SU vs. the rest of the American. However, it should be pointed out that four of the five losses in January were by single digits. They were tied 65-65 with Tulsa (only team to beat Houston this year) here on Saturday, only to get caught on the wrong end of a 12-3 run to end the game. 

It’s not as if I expect East Carolina to win this game. But I do think they’ll keep it closer than what the oddsmakers are thinking. The Pirates are a solid 6-3 SU at home this season with just one bad loss (to Memphis). Houston doesn’t play for another week after this game, so they may be looking forward to the break and not be fully focused. They are probably due for an “off-game” anyway. They are 0-5 ATS the L5 times they’ve been off a game where they allowed less than 50 points. East Carolina has covered five straight home games vs. teams with a winning road record. 8* East Carolina

9* Aston Villa (3:00 ET): It was two weeks ago, right before they beat Newcastle United, that I predicted Aston Villa was set to make a run up the Premier League table. Following that 1-0 win, I took them again, this time against Burnley. Sadly, the West Midlands outfit twice blew a one-goal advantage and lost that fixture 3-2. But they quickly bounced back with another 1-0 triumph, this one against Southampton on Saturday. This leaves AV with 32 points from their 19 matches (still two in hand compared to some of the teams they are chasing) and in 9th place in the table. Only two sides - Man City and Liverpool - can claim better YTD goal differentials, however. 

West Ham had been as hot as any Premier League side prior to losing to Liverpool at London Stadium on Sunday. The Hammers’ lone goal came at the 87th minute and was pretty meaningless as they were down 3-0. Still, they can have to be happy about their current position in the table, which is 5th, meaning Europa League qualification. They’d won six straight across all competitions before tasting defeat at the hands of Liverpool. But despite this good form, they have a YTD goal differential of just +4 (Aston Villa is +13). As a result, I’m a little bearish on the Hammers’ future prospects. 

After having their long win streak come to an end, expect West Ham to lose again Wednesday. They’ve conceded five times in their last two Premier League matches, a troubling sign, and have scored 1 goal or less in five of the previous seven. Aston Villa is playing better at home since the COVID interruptions and has just as many wins (10) on the season as does West Ham. This is also a huge revenge spot with West Ham having taken the reverse fixture by a 2-1 count back on November 30th. 9* Aston Villa

10* Indiana (9:00 ET): Illinois is back where it “belongs,” ranked #12 in the country. Truthfully, my power ratings say they should be ranked even higher. But tonight they happen to be facing a team that I feel is also underrated by the pollsters, that being Indiana. With a 9-7 SU record, IU isn’t “wowing” anyone right now. But consider that they will come into this game well-rested (haven’t played in over a week!) and also won by 12 at Iowa last month. That’s more impressive than the Fighting Illini beating the Hawkeyes by just five points at home last Friday. 

You can probably guess the reason for Indiana’s sabbatical from the court. They were supposed to face #4 Michigan on Saturday, but the Wolverines had COVID issues. Avoiding a trip to face a top four opponent before playing this game is a big break for the Hoosiers. Now they’ve actually lost their last two games here in Bloomington (both as favorites), but tonight marks the 1st time they’ve been a home dog all season. They’ve gone 4-1 ATS when getting points on the road, so you’ve gotta like their chances of pulling this one out, even if Galloway and Franklin can’t go. 

This is a revenge game as well. The Hoosiers lost in Champaign-Urbana back on December 26th by a score of 69-60. That was actually the one time they failed to cover when getting points (were +6.5). They shot poorly and were outrebounded 40-28. Generally, neither shooting nor rebounding have been problems for the Hoosiers. That win over Iowa on Friday was Illinois’ first over a team currently in the Top 25. Indiana may not be ranked, but my power ratings call them a top 25 team in the country. Take the points. 10* Indiana

10* Under Clippers/Nets (7:35 ET): With three of the top stars in the game (Durant, Irving, Harden), it certainly appears as if Brooklyn is going to test how far the oddsmakers are willing to go when it comes to setting O/U lines. Saturday vs. Washington, the number was 244, as high an O/U line as you’ll see. Still, the game went Over by more than 50 points as the Nets actually lost to the Wizards 149-147! I was happy with the result having taken the Wizards +7. Now I’m going to be even more daring. 

The Over is 15-1 in Brooklyn’s last 16 games. That’s pretty incredible, especially when you consider how high the O/U lines have been. Saturday’s was the highest yet. I suppose we’ll continue to see numbers north of 240, but to me this number is just too large. The Clippers are a lot better than the Wizards in all aspects of the game, but especially when it comes to playing defense. They allow just 106.7 PPG. Another key is tempo. The Clips play at the second slowest pace in the league, meaning only one team (New York) averages fewer possessions per game. 

Now the Clippers just faced the Knicks and the game ended up being a 129-115 final. So much for pace there. But the total was just 210, a far cry from what it is here. There’s a chance this will go off as the highest O/U line of the season to date in the entire NBA and that’s even with the number being bet down a few points since it opened. Nets’ games do average 239.9 total PPG this season, but that’s still below this number. Clippers’ games average “just” 221.2. The Under is 2-0 this season in Clippers’ games where the total is 230 or higher. 10* Under Clippers/Nets

8* Texas (7:00 ET): If there ever was a time for #2 Baylor (16-0 SU) to drop a game, it would be here in Austin. The Bears just played a tough opponent (Auburn) Saturday night while Texas had the weekend off. The Longhorns were going to face Kentucky, but COVID took care of that matchup (issue was obviously on the UK side). So now the Longhorns come in well-rested for their biggest game of the season and you know motivation will be through the roof. They are 4-1 SU/ATS as dogs this season. 

Texas is just seven points away from being unbeaten itself. That’s the total number of points their three losses have been by with none of the margins being greater than four. The last time they took the court was exactly one week ago and they fell 80-79 to red-hot Oklahoma here in Austin. That they were able to almost win despite not having HC Shaka Smart, two starters and one key reserve (all out due to COVID) was pretty impressive. For the final possession, the Longhorns had just five scholarship players available as three more guys fouled out during the course of the game! Everyone, including Smart, is expected to be back tonight. 

Yes, I’m fully aware of how good Baylor is. But Texas is a top 10 team playing at home. Not only were there extenuating factors working against them in the loss to OU, but in a 79-77 loss to Texas Tech on 1/13, they blew a 10-point halftime lead. They led that game most of the way. It’s pretty shocking that all three of the Longhorns losses have occurred at home, but again those were all by razor thin margins and to teams ranked in the Top 15. Tonight is the most points they’ll get in any game all season. It’s a good value. They are rested. They easily could be undefeated. They can beat Baylor. Take the points. 8* Texas

8* Butler (5:00 ET): Both Butler and Marquette have been pretty cold of late. Butler has lost its last two games and four of its last six. Marquette has lost three in a row and seven of 10 . Even worse is that the Golden Eagles are 1-9 ATS in those 10 games and 0-4 the L4. So laying points with them right now seems like a BAD idea. They are just 3-7 ATS as chalk this season.

Butler couldn’t hit water from a boat in their last game as they shot just 34.3% against Xavier, 68-55 loss as two-point favorites. The Bulldogs REALLY struggled from behind the three-point arc where they missed 20 of 25 attempts. That’s well below their season average, obviously. Three things to keep in mind here, however. One is they’re going to shoot better tonight. Two, they own a win over Creighton. Three, Christian David and Bo Hodges are now both playing. Each made their season debut vs. Xavier and while it didn’t help there, there’s no denying the Bulldogs are now a better and deeper team. Hodgers is a transfer from East Tennessee State. 

Marquette is down a player, Justin Lewis, as he injured his ankle in practice Saturday. While “just” a reserve, Lewis is a key frontcourt contributor. Without Lewis, the Golden Eagles lost by two to St. John’s on Sunday. But the game was really not that close as they trailed by 15 at halftime. Butler has had one extra day off (compared to Marquette) between games and will certainly be motivated to end an 0-4 ATS run in this rivalry. Take the points. 8* Butler

10* Portland (8:05 ET): Milwaukee can still claim the East’s best point differential and efficiency rating, but they’ve lost B2B games and done so to vastly inferior opposition. As a result, they’re now third in the conference standings. Friday brought a narrow defeat at the hands of New Orleans then without rest they fell in Charlotte on Saturday. Do I think the Bucks are likely to win here at home tonight? Yes, but the number is clearly inflated based on that expectation (which I’m sure most people share) and don’t think they’ll cover the spread. Take the points.

Portland is coming off a 123-122 win in Chicago where Damian Lillard scored a season-high 44 points, the last three of which came on a game-winning three-pointer. It was Lillard’s second 40+ point effort of the season and he’s averaging 34 over the team’s last eight games. The Blazers obviously need that kind of production as they’ve been playing without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. But players like Gary Trent Jr have been stepping up. Trent had 18 against the Bulls and is averaging 21 the L3 games. 

The Blazers are just 3-3 SU their L6 games, however, two of the three losses were by just three points each. It’s rare that you can get them plus this many points. They’ve actually been better offensively on the road this season as they’re averaging 118.2 PPG. Certainly defense has been an issue, but you could say the same for Milwaukee, who has given up 113+ in five of the last six games including 131 to New Orleans and 126 to Charlotte. The Bucks are only 1-4 ATS vs. Western Conference teams this season and have lost three of those games outright. 10* Portland

10* Central Florida (8:00 ET): Memphis seems to have gone from “underachieving” to “a little bit overrated” in a hurry. That’s due to a 4-game ATS win streak, but I think it’s important to remember what preceded that, a 7-game ATS LOSING streak. Anfernee Hardaway’s team has had a LOT of close calls this season, the most recent coming last week at SMU where they lost 67-65 (but did cover as 4-point dogs). This is the most points the Tigers have had to lay in over a month and I think the spread is too high. 

UCF is off its own narrow defeat, theirs coming Saturday at Wichita State by a score of 93-88. As you may have guessed from the final score, that game went to overtime. It was the sixth loss in the last seven games for the Golden Knights, who certainly didn’t help themselves by turning it over 22 times against the Shockers. It was a game they led at halftime and just the second time all year they lost when scoring at least 61 points. The last two games have seen dramatic improvement on the offensive end for UCF and I’m expecting a better showing than the oddsmakers are for tonight’s game. 

A couple weeks ago, I laid a short number with Memphis here at home and they blew out Wichita State 72-52. But I’ve seen too many close games from the Tigers to want to lay this many points. Seven of their last nine games have been decided by seven points or less. Four of those have been SU losses. I know UCF is a bit “offensively challenged,” but they’ve topped 70 in regulation each of the L2 games. They led Wichita State by eight with less than four minutes to go on Saturday. Meanwhile, Memphis trailed SMU by as many as 16 on Thursday. 10* Central Florida

8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): It has NOT been a good run for Miami of late as they’ve dropped four in a row - both SU and ATS. Short-handed, they lost 66-54 at Wake Forest on Saturday, which was the second time in the last three games they lost as a favorite. Things will not be any easier tonight when they host a suddenly surging Duke team that’s won B2B games. But because the Blue Devils are among the most “public sides” in the sport, we’re able to get a good number in this nationally televised contest and I’m taking the points as this number has simply grown too large. 

Duke’s B2B wins have come against Georgia Tech and Clemson. Against the former, they were tied with just 2:33 remaining before pulling away via the charity stripe. The Clemson win on Saturday may have been the best the Blue Devils have looked all season. They won 79-53 after jumping out to a big lead and never looking back. But both of these recent wins were in Durham. The Blue Devils still have zero wins this season against the Top 25 and are 1-3 SU on the road. I think the idea of them being ranked is somewhat ludicrous. 

Yes, Miami is really short-handed right now and has had horrible luck against Duke in recent years. But I expect Jim Larranaga’s team to be “up” for this one. I mentioned earlier that the Hurricanes have lost four straight. Well, three of those losses were on the road. Duke is still a young team and I’ve been on the record calling them “overrated” even before the loss to Michigan State back in November. I just don’t think this should be a double digit spread. 8* Miami FL

8* Georgia Tech (2:00 ET): Louisville is ranked #25 in the country as of this writing, but the Cardinals are likely to drop out of the new poll (when it comes out later today) due to losing 54-50 at Clemson last week. That was the third loss they’ve suffered over the course of the previous four games, a stretch which includes their lone home loss of 2020-21, 78-65 at the hands of Florida State. They did defeat Duke here last Saturday, but by just five points. That’s one of three Cardinals’ wins by five points or less since Christmas, the difference between a 6-3 record in their L9 games and a much more mediocre mark. 

Georgia Tech just beat Florida State, albeit in Atlanta, 76-65 on Saturday. That was the Yellow Jackets’ sixth win in the last eight games and something to keep in mind is that both losses are games they easily could have won. GT led Virginia by as many as 11 points on 1/23 before losing 64-62 in overtime. The next game saw them in front of Duke late, but they lost that one (also on the road), 75-68. Had the Jackets held on in either game, we might be talking about them replacing L’ville in the Top 25 today. Beating a team like Florida State is not easy and GT did it by holding the Seminoles to their lowest point total of the season. 

The Yellow Jackets also come in averaging 77.7 PPG themselves. They shot 50% from the field in the second half Saturday. Alongside FSU, Georgia Tech is top two in the ACC in both three-point shooting and overall field goal percentage. Considering that L’ville only made 31.6% of its shot attempts against Clemson, you’ve got to like the Yellow Jackets’ chances defensively in this one, especially considering they just held the ACC’s #1 scoring team to almost 15 pts below its season average. Georgia Tech is 5-2 ATS as a dog this season, so I’ll gladly take the points here. 8* Ga Tech

10* Washington (7:00 ET): The Wizards have not won since returning to the court seven days ago. They didn’t play for nearly two weeks and are now 0-4 since returning, both SU and ATS. Tonight will not be an easy game as they face the Nets, who of course now have James Harden among their ranks. But we’re getting a big number on the home team as Brooklyn figures to be one of the more overvalued (and public) sides moving forward. I’m taking the points here as the Wizards actually beat the Nets earlier this month.

That win was in Brooklyn, before the Harden trade, on January 3rd. The Wizards won 123-122 as a seven-point dog. You can see we’re now getting more points with the Wiz AT HOME than they were getting on the road. That’s the Harden factor. Also, despite resting Kevin Durant, the Nets just put up 147 points (franchise record in regulation) on Friday, their 4th straight win. However, you should be aware that the Nets are just 2-2 SU this season following a game where they scored 130 or more points. 

Washington is starting to get players back from the COVID list, so expect them to play better. Bradley Beal currently leads the NBA in scoring with 34.7 PPG. He scored a season-low 26 in Friday’s loss to the Hawks and the team shot a season-worst 36.5%. Six technical fouls by the Wizards didn’t help their cause in that game either. Expect better shooting from Beal and company tonight though. When they beat Brooklyn, they only shot 41% from the field. They’ll top that number tonight. The Nets are only 3-6 ATS vs. teams that have losing records. 10* Washington

10* Illinois State (3:00 ET): There are three unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. You’re more than likely well aware of two of them, Gonzaga and Baylor, as those are the top two ranked teams in the country. But the other is Drake, a team whose season was interrupted for a full three weeks because of COVID-19. The Bulldogs are 15-0 after returning to the court earlier this week and winning a couple close games at Missouri State. Perhaps most impressive of all is that they are also 13-0 ATS this season!

However, I personally don’t think Drake is even the best team in the Missouri Valley. (That would be Loyola IL, who they will face in a couple of weeks). When they returned to the court Tuesday (following a 22-day layoff), the Bulldogs looked a little shaky as they trailed Missouri State by 15 at halftime and it certainly appeared their unbeaten run was headed for its demise. But they rallied to win there (outscored Missouri State 42-20 in 2H) and then won again by five the following night. Today marks the largest spread for any Drake game this season, with the exception of Chicago State, who was arguably the worst team in all of College Basketball before cancelling its season. 

Illinois State should be getting a lot more respect from the oddsmakers than this. While only 5-10 SU on the year, most of the Redbirds’ losses have been close, the exceptions being the pair against Loyola. They just lost two at home to Valparaiso, both of which saw them come in as the slight favorite. The second of those two games saw them ahead late, but they were outscored 7-2 in the final 99 seconds and lost 70-66. It certainly didn’t help that their second leading scorer (Josiah Strong) scored only two points the entire game. While Drake is likely to win this game straight up and thus remain unbeaten, their ATS win streak is certainly long overdue to end. 10* Illinois State

10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): As long as Roma can stay out of its own way here, I see no reason why they don’t grab the full three points Sunday. There have been some inexplicable gaffes by the Giallorossi this season, the most recent coming in last week’s exit from the Coppa Italia. Because they foolishly brought an extra substitute in that match, the result was a 3-0 loss to Spezia. A similar mistake was made when they last faced this week’s opponent, Hellas Verona, as they fielded an ineligible player there. Due to that mistake, a scoreless draw was changed to a 3-0 Hellas Verona win, a critical two-point loss for Roma. 

The good news is that Roma showed what it is capable of by bouncing back to defeat Spezia last week 4-3 in Serie A action. The fact they were able to avenge the embarrassing Coppa Italia exit should give them confidence here as they look to exact some revenge against Hellas Verona. Another confidence builder is Roma’s home record as they are the only Serie A side to not taste defeat on its own soil. No side has earned more points at home and the 25 home goals scored are level with Inter and Napoli for most in all of Serie A. They have dominated Hellas Verona at home through the years, never losing in the last 23 tries and winning 18 times. 

Hellas Verona currently sits 8th in the table with 30 points. That’s seven behind their third place opponents Sunday. This is a very critical match for both sides as 4th place Juventus is likely to pick up points Saturday and then early on Sunday 5th place Atalanta takes on 7th place Lazio. The issue for HV is that they have scored the fewest number of goals this season (25) of any team in the top half of the table. Last week’s come from behind effort at Napoli will be difficult to duplicate. Look for Roma’s unbeaten run at home to continue on Sunday. 10* AS Roma

10* Detroit (10:05 ET): The Pistons are by no means a good team, but they did just upset the Lakers on Thursday night, 107-92 as seven-point home underdogs. That was their second big upset in the last three games as they also beat the 76ers at home, 119-104 as 4.5-point dogs. They’ve covered the spread in three of the last four games and a very respectable 10-6 ATS when getting points this season. Tonight they are at Golden State as they look to pull off B2B wins against the last two Western Conference champions. 

I think we all expected a Warriors bounce back this season after last year’s injury-riddled disaster. However, I think it’s also pretty clear the Dubs are never going to ascend back to the heights of their championship squads. They were blown out Thursday night in Phoenix, 114-93, as for the fifth time this season they failed to produce a three-game win streak. The previous two games were both here at home vs. Minnesota and while they covered each time, the Warriors are still only 4-3 ATS as favorites this season. 

Detroit has just one road win this year and it came against an injury-riddled Heat team. But surprisingly, their scoring average jumps away from home. Now so does the number of points they allow per game, but if they can hold the Lakers to just 92 (as they did Thursday), then I think they can get the job done defensively tonight. This is a revenge spot for a 10-point loss back on December 29th when the Pistons were playing the second night of a back to back. They’re rested this time and I’ll take the points. 10* Detroit

10* Murray State (8:30 ET): With Winthrop’s loss last night, there is now only one team in College Basketball that is 10-0 or better in conference play. That would be Belmont. The Bruins are 11-0 vs. the rest of the Ohio Valley, but had a very close call Thursday at Austin Peay, whom they defeated only by an 81-76 margin. In a game with 26 lead changes and 12 ties, I shouldn’t have had to sweat the cover with Austin Peay, but that’s what ended up happening. Still, I did get the ATS win and I’m thinking tonight will be an outright win on Murray State, who is MUCH better than their 7-7 overall record. 

This will be only the third time Belmont has had to play B2B road games. They did not cover in either of the first two instances. Those games were against Jacksonville State (won by 7) and Evansville (won by 9). While it’s a much shorter number here, that’s because Murray State is 6-2 at home this season and averaging 88.6 PPG. They are one of the few teams in the OVC that I feel can “trade buckets” with the Bruins. Murray State’s two home losses are by a combined eight points. The Racers come into this evening off a very strong effort, a 73-53 blowout of Tennessee Tech, which was here in Murray. 

This is a revenge game for Murray State as they lost down in Nashville 68-55 back on December 30th. They only trailed by one at halftime, holding Belmont to a season-low 26 first half points. The difference in that game was second chance points and turnovers. I expect Murray State to play a “cleaner” game now that they’re at home. They shoot a blistering 54.3% here and also defend the 3-point line very well (opponents hitting just 27.4% for the year). Take the points, but I’m expecting the outright upset. 10* Murray State

8* Utah (2:30 ET): I certainly respect Colorado. In fact, my own power ratings say this should be a Top 25 team. I took them the first time they faced Utah and while that ended up being a 65-58 victory on January 11th, it was not easy for the Buffaloes. They trailed by 10 at the half before storming back for their first win in Salt Lake City since the 2011-12 season. Six made free throws in the final minute ensured they’d cover that day (as short 2.5-pt favorites), but covering this larger spread at home may prove more problematic.

The Buffaloes have now won six of their last seven to get to 13-4 SU overall, including 7-3 in Pac 12 play. I look at this league as a four-team race with them, UCLA, USC and Oregon. But as much as I admire what’s going on in Boulder right now, the team has been “playing with fire” a bit. The earlier game vs. Utah isn’t the only time they’ve come from behind after being down big at halftime. In last week’s 70-59 win at Washington State, they trailed by as many as 18 points. Another win over Wazzu (on Wednesday) saw them catch a break as the Cougars were playing without their leading scorer. 

Colorado’s only loss in the L7 games came as a sizable favorite (-14.5) against (arguably) the worst team in the Pac 12, Washington. So it would be foolish to say Utah doesn’t have a chance to win this game straight up. After all, they led Colorado by double digits in the first meeting. That was actually the second consecutive game where the Utes blew a DD halftime lead and lost. Overall, they’ve dropped six of eight, but have had the halftime lead in four of those six losses, three times by double digits! They only lost by two at UCLA as well. I see the Utes being VERY motivated by the revenge factor here. 8* Utah

8* Valencia (12:30 ET): Two struggling La Liga sides hook it up on the pitch Saturday. Valencia currently sits 14th in the table, but is only two points clear of the relegation zone, which is where Elche (19th) sits right now. Los Che have just one La Liga victory since delivering a shocking upset of Real Madrid back in November. But they have been far more competitive than has Elche, who hasn’t won a match in the Spanish top flight since mid-October. The hosts boast the better YTD goal differential as well, so I’m backing Valencia to bag the three points here. 

It was a decent start last week vs. 1st place Atletico Madrid as Valencia opened the scoring in the 11th minute. But from there, they were simply overwhelmed by the table leaders, conceding three times and going down rather easily. Now there’s no shame in losing to Atletico, who in my opinion has been the best side in all of Europe this season. A 3-0 loss to Sevilla midweek, which knocked Valencia out of the Copa del Rey, was pretty ugly. But again, that was at the hands of a top six La Liga side. This week’s opponent occupies a place at the opposite end of the table and should be a welcome sight at Mestalla.

Elche has also been bounced from the Copa del Rey, only their exit came at the hands of a Segunda Division club. Incredibly, they have just two wins in their 16 matches - across all competitions - and both came against sides that play in the third tier of Spanish football. Their last win was October 23rd … against Valencia, making this a huge revenge spot for the home side. They couldn’t possibly live with themselves losing to a side in such poor form twice in the same campaign. So expect a motivated showing here, especially since Elche has two matches in hand. 8* Valencia

10* Hawaii (11:59 PM ET): UC Irvine has been hot of late, winning six straight to get to 7-4 SU on the season. Playing in the Big West, those wins have hardly been against “world-beaters.” The last two wins were against last place Cal Poly and while the defensive numbers from those games look great (just 93 total points allowed on less than 33% shooting), the Mustangs are one of the most offensively challenged teams in the entire country. UC Irvine hasn’t been reliable on the road (1-4 SU) and Honolulu is arguably the toughest trip to make in the conference. I’m taking the points here. 

Hawaii is off a solid 76-53 win at Cal State Fullerton last Saturday. That was revenge for an 83-67 loss the night prior. The Warriors have solid rebounding and play good defense, a combination I certainly like to see when taking a team. They just held CS Fullerton to 4 of 19 shooting from three-point range. That they were able to win so convincingly on the road, despite making just four foul shots, is pretty impressive, The Warriors’ schedule has certainly been impacted by COVID, but they’ve now played six games the last three weeks, so they should be in better “rhythm.” 

Hawaii did lose its last two home games, both to Cal State Bakersfield, so they should be really motivated for a home win tonight. As I mentioned earlier, Cal Irvine has been shaky on the road. This will be just the second away game since X-Mas for them. They’ve averaged just 62.6 points in those five previous road games. Also, tonight marks just the third time in 12 games that the Anteaters have been favored. They’ve definitely overachieved. Hawaii was actually favored in each of its last four games. They are 2-0 ATS as dogs this season. 10* Hawaii

10* Under Nuggets/Spurs (8:35 ET): Denver is looking to complete a perfect road trip tonight in San Antonio. They’ve won their last five games overall, covering the spread every time. This win streak has the Nuggets a solid 4th in the Western Conference standings, one game ahead of the 5th place Spurs, who are off a 110-106 win over Boston that took place here at home on Wednesday night. That was the Spurs’ second straight win and 8th in the last 12 games. Should be a competitive game tonight in the Alamo.

Denver has a very efficient offense, ranking 4th in the league in points per possession. They have to be efficient because they are actually bottom four in pace (# of possessions per game). It was pretty easy Wednesday night against a Heat team that has been hit hard by COVID-19. The Nuggets enjoyed their largest halftime lead of the season (25 points) and held Miami to just 82 pts for the game. While known more as an “offensive team,” the Nuggets have held three of their last four opponents under 42% shooting for the game. With some of the recent Overs, note two of the games went to overtime. 

San Antonio probably isn’t going to shoot 56.1% from the field again like they did Wednesday against Boston. That they shot that well and still ended up with “only” 110 points is a little telling about the kind of game the Spurs wish to play. There was a stretch vs. Boston (end of 1st half) where they made 10 consecutive shots, including two layups in the last four seconds before halftime. Again, don’t see that happening again. Nor do I see the Spurs turning it over as much as they did (19 times) vs. the Celtics. Look for this to be a game with few possessions and solid defense. 10* Under Nuggets/Spurs

8* Florida International (6:00 ET): FIU started the season 8-3, but all of a sudden has lost five in a row - both SU and ATS. They’ve been without their second leading scorer, Radshad Davis (13.3 PPG), for the last three games. That partially explains the recent slide, but the real culprit has been the Panthers’ complete lack of defense as they’ve allowed 79 or more points in each of the L4 games. The Charlotte team they’ll face tonight is offensively challenged, a good sign, and I’m hopeful Davis will return. Even if he doesn’t, still take the points as this number is way too high. 

Charlotte is a team I’ve played against previously. In fact, it was exactly two weeks ago when they hosted UAB. The 49ers ended up losing that game in humiliating fashion, 61-37, as 2-point home underdogs. They’ve won two of three since then, avenging the UAB defeat and beating FAU last Saturday 74-71. However, this is a team that should feel pretty lucky to be .500 (7-7 SU) on the season. Four of its wins have been by four points or less. They’ve lost to a non-DI opponent (Belmont Abbey) and have played three overtime games this month. 

I understand that FIU has been struggling of late, but this line should not be so high. These teams’ play at vastly different tempos with FIU ranking 20th in number of possessions per game while Charlotte is 328th. That’s something to watch as this game unfolds. If FIU can push the tempo, then things will go in their favor. I don’t think they are as bad as they’ve looked these L5 games and with Charlotte owning just three wins by more than four points this year, who would want to lay points with them? They are, in fact, 1-4 ATS as chalk this season. Take the points. 8* Florida International

9* Stuttgart (2:30 ET): Incredibly, Stuttgart has yet to deliver a single home victory this season. For the record, it’s been five draws and three losses. But it’s not just the home form that should concern Die Roten. With only one win in their last seven matches, they have fallen down to 10th place in the Bundesliga table and are bordering on irrelevancy. The past two weeks have seen them go down 3-1 at the hands of Arminia Bielefeld and 2-1 at the hands of Freiburg. They desperately need three points this week and fortunately I think relegation-bound Mainz will be accommodating. 

Mainz can certainly identify with Stuttgart’s home struggles. After all, prior to last week, they were also w/o a home victory this campaign. But then they shocked second place RB Leipzig 3-2 last weekend. As shocking (and impressive) as that win was, let’s not be quick to forget that Mainz is still seven points away from being out of the relegation zone. Last week was just their second overall win this season and they’ve lost 12 of their 18 matches with a -20 goal differential. They are very much the second worst side in the table with historically bad Schalke the only one below them. 

Stuttgart certainly got off to a decent start last week, opening the scoring in the 7th minute. But they allowed Freiburg to answer twice before halftime and that was it. Very disappointing loss considering Stuttgart had 27 shots on goal and controlled possession 60 percent of the time. On the flip side, Mainz was certainly a little fortunate in their victory last week with two set piece equalizers before Leandro Barreiro shocked Leipzig with what proved to be the game-winner in the 50th minute. Unfortunately, Barreiro may be unavailable here (injury), part of a long injury list for the visitors. You have to figure Stuttgart is due to win at home and I love the idea of fading Mainz off a (rare) win. 9* Stuttgart

8* New Mexico (11:00 ET): Fresno State is a team I’ve targeted previously and as a favorite, they become a really attractive fade. The last time they took the court was eight days ago vs. Boise State. I took Boise State -14.5 and that was a winning bet despite the fact Fresno State had the halftime lead. (The game ended up 73-51). They were supposed to play Boise State again on Friday, but that game got postponed. While the Bulldogs have been better at home this year, there’s a reason for that (weak opponents). I don’t think you can trust this team laying this many points (unless they’re playing San Jose State). 

Four of Fresno State’s five wins this season have come against either non-DI teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific) or San Jose State (worst team in the MWC). They swept two home games against San Jose State, covering as 14-point favorites both times. Since then, they’ve lost three in a row, all on the road. Given a 3-6 ATS record in conference play, I just don’t know why you’d want to lay points with this team right now. 

Now truthfully New Mexico hasn’t been very good either as they are actually tied for last in the Mountain West after splitting with San Jose State last weekend. They lost the second game as 9.5-point favorites, a result they will desperately want to atone for here. Remember that the Lobos haven’t been allowed to play any actual home games this season. Being on the road again won’t bother them. Take the points. 8* New Mexico

10* Austin Peay (9:00 ET): There are only two teams in the country that are 10-0 or better in conference play and one of them is Belmont in the Ohio Valley (the other is Winthrop in the Big South). Belmont has won 13 in a row overall since tasting its lone defeat this season, which was a bit of a shocker as they were 17.5-point favorites at home over Samford when they fell 96-83 on December 5th. Coming off a dominating win over SIU Edwardsville, the Bruins now head to Austin Peay for what will be one of their toughest games during the entire OVC slate.

Austin Peay may have been caught “looking ahead” to this one as they were upset by Jacksonville State on Saturday, 76-70 as a four-point favorite. They ended the game on the wrong end of a 9-0 run. Though they shot the ball well (52.9%), for a second straight game their defense was shockingly poor. They allowed Jacksonville State to shoot 63.3% from the field, an even higher percentage than what Tennessee Tech (56.1%) last Thursday. The Governors better shore that defense up quickly as they are now facing a team that just scored 114 points in its last game.

My view is that Austin Peay is ready for this one and will be much better defensively. Certainly they can’t be any worse than they were in the last two games. Austin Peay’s last seven games have all been decided by nine points or less with the three losses all coming by six points or less. So this is a team that doesn’t get blown out very often. They are 7-1 straight up when playing with three or more days rest and a perfect 4-0 SU off a loss. Belmont has been really impressive, but this is their toughest test to date. Take the points. 10* Austin Peay

10* Houston (7:30 ET): Two teams trending in opposite directions here. Houston, who has moved on from James Harden, has now won a season-high three in a row. Their new starting backcourt of Wall and Oladipo led the way in Tuesday’s 107-88 win against Washington, combining for 44 points. Having outscored the opposition this year, the Rockets have outperformed their 7-9 SU record and should continue winning tonight as they host a wounded Portland team that has lost three in a row ATS. 

The Blazers’ suffered their third straight ATS defeat on Monday when they lost outright at home to Oklahoma City by a score of 125-122. It was their third SU loss in the last five games, all of which were played at home. Tonight is the beginning of a six-game road trip and you’ve got to be concerned about their prospects considering Nurkic and McCollum are both out long-term while Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr (COVID) are listed as questionable for tonight’s game. 

Portland is very much the opposite of Houston as they’ve underperformed their 9-7 SU record by being outscored this year. They should feel rather fortunate to be tied for 5th in the Western Conference right now, but I don’t see them maintaining that position for very long, in light of the injuries. This team is really bad defensively (29th in efficiency) while Houston is a surprising 4th in that category. This is a revenge game for the Rockets, who were beaten by two up in Portland the day after X-Mas (blew a 10-point halftime lead). 10* Houston

8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns are off a couple of very frustrating home losses to Denver over the weekend. Both games went to overtime. One went to double OT. The first saw the Suns blow a double-digit lead in the second half. Losing Devin Booker to an injury was critical down the stretch. But despite not having their leading scorer, Phoenix still competed the next night, taking the Nuggets to two overtimes before wilting late. Booker has been ruled out again tonight, but I still see the home team having enough to win.

Oklahoma City was projected by many to be the worst team in the Western Conference this year. But they’ve been better than expected, going a respectable 7-9 SU the first 16 games. They just won in Portland Monday night, 127-125 as 4.5-point dogs. That was thanks to jumping out to an early lead (led by 10 at end of 1Q). But before that win, the Thunder had dropped three straight. They also have the league’s third worst point differential entering tonight. Obviously, I’m not expecting a repeat of Monday night here.

Phoenix may be without Booker, but OKC will probably be without Al Horford and George Hill again. The Suns have enjoyed three full days off to get ready for this one, which should be an easy win. I am projecting the Suns to be a top six team in the West this year. Even though they’ve been better than expected, I still see the Thunder finishing near the bottom of the standings. Chris Paul should be motivated facing his former team. 8* Phoenix

8* Dallas (9:05 ET): While it may seem “dangerous” to go against a Jazz team that’s 9-0 SU/ATS its L9 games, this is the second night of a back to back for them. If there ever was a time for them to “slip up,” it would be here against a Mavs team that has underachieved the last two weeks, but is now healthy. I can’t deny just how impressive Utah has been during its nine-game win streak, out-scoring teams by 15.7 PPG. But they’ve been facing a lot of bad teams, like the Knicks last night. It’s time to “sell-high.” 

Coming into the year, the Mavs were a team I projected to finish in the top four of the Western Conference. As of right now, their record is just 8-9 SU and they’ve lost two in a row. But they’ve been short-handed for about three weeks, missing Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Dwight Powell due to COVID-19. All three traveled with the team to Salt Lake City and have been upgraded to probable. Even if not all of them play, remember we took the Mavs to win in San Antonio, which they did, last Friday. 

Utah’s 108-94 win over New York last night was not as easy as it looks from the final score. The Jazz trailed by 15 in the first half before completely shutting the Knicks offense down after halftime. They actually still trailed by one heading into the 4Q but allowed just 13 points over the final 12 minutes. That cost me a big Over play, which I’m not happy about. New York made only 12 field goals the entire second half! That won’t happen with Dallas, who should be happy to get some of its key players back. Before the three players in question left the lineup, this team was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Dallas

8* Milwaukee (7:30 ET): This rematch of the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals is being played in Orlando as are all Toronto “home games” this season. The Raptors have actually fared well in their new digs (5-2 SU), especially when compared to their poor 2-7 road record. But a matchup with the team I still consider the “beast of the East” is unlikely to go well for the home team as they have been playing short-handed (no Pascal Siakam). The Raptors lost 129-114 at Indiana their last time out. 

Though their 10-6 SU record is hardly dominant, the Bucks continue to boast the East’s best point differential and net efficiency rating. Make no mistake about it, this is the best team in the league outside of the Lakers. After losing B2B games for the first time all season, the Bucks went out and handled their business Sunday with a 129-115 win over a good Atlanta team. They continue to pace the league in offensive efficiency and have the league’s highest scoring average as well at 120.1 PPG. 

The big key here is that Toronto has not fared well when facing teams with winning records. They are just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in those games this season. This will be their third game in four nights (after a hard-fought split in Indiana) while the Bucks have been off for two days. I just don’t see any way the Bucks lose tonight and the number isn’t very big. Lay it. 8* Milwaukee

10* Notre Dame (7:00 ET): Virginia Tech already was a team I felt didn’t deserve to be ranked in the Top 25, now they’ve had to suspend arguably their best player for the foreseeable future. So the Hokies are a very logical fade Wednesday night when they travel to South Bend and face Notre Dame. They just lost by 18 in Syracuse Saturday and that was with starting guard Tyrece Radford (the suspended player in question) in the lineup. This will be their third straight game on the road as well. 

Notre Dame got me on Sunday by going to Coral Gables and beating Miami 73-59. They played a somewhat “sloppy” game (16 turnovers), but shot the ball very well and dominated the Hurricanes on the glass. The Fighting Irish finished the game at 53.8% from the field, including 10 of 18 on three-pointers. They also held a 37-28 rebounding advantage. That was a pretty impressive ACC road win and the Irish’s second win in a row overall. They defeated Boston College 80-70 here at home in their previous game.

It can’t be understated what losing Radford means to Va Tech. He is second on the team in both scoring and rebounding and was the “best player on the court” (Coach K’s words) when the Hokies beat Duke earlier this month. My power ratings are quite bearish on Va Tech, still having them outside the Top 40. They’ve lost two of their three “true” road games thus far. This is a revenge game for ND who lost by 14 down in Blacksburg 17 days ago on a bad shooting night. At home, things will be different. 10* Notre Dame

8* Rhode Island (5:00 ET): After suffering a disappointing loss at Duquesne last Wednesday, Rhode Island came up with a less than inspiring effort Saturday against lowly Fordham. They managed to win, 52-42, but never came close to covering the 17-point spread. That performance was especially disappointing me as I laid the point. When you give up only 42 points at home, that should be an ATS win, no matter how large the spread. 

La Salle is off a shocking win at Richmond Saturday where they came in as 16.5-point underdogs. The Explorers pulled the upset in large part because they shot 57.1% from the field. That was the second game in a row they shot that exact percentage from the field. One would figure they are due to “cool off.” Facing an opponent that just allowed only 42 points in its last game seems like the “right time.”

While LaSalle certainly isn’t as inept as Fordham offensively, URI can certainly turn in another top-notch defensive effort here. The Rams have held two of their last three opponents under 33% shooting. Something to keep in mind is that earlier this month La Salle shot just 28.1% from the floor in an ugly loss to George Mason. So they can be wildly inconsistent. Rhode Island is 11-4 SU, 11-3-1 ATS their L15 visits here. 8* Rhode Island

10* Aston Villa (1:00 ET): I know Burnley has won two straight matches, one of them being of a rather historic nature, but this price on Aston Villa seems quite generous given where both sides currently sit in the table. The Clarets remain 15th even after becoming the first Premier League visitors to defeat Liverpool at Anfield since April of 2017. That shocking 1-0 win occurred last Thursday with the lone goal scored on a penalty in the 83rd minute. But neither that, nor the fact it was followed by a 3-0 win over Fulham in the FA Cup over the weekend changes our read on this side, which is closer to relegation than their 8th place opponents Wednesday. 

Aston Villa was a solid 2-0 winner for me on Saturday as they took care of Newcastle United in a rescheduled affair. This is the most underrated side in the Premier League right now, at least in my eyes. The fact they are only 8th in the table is somewhat misleading when you consider they’ve played two fewer matches than seventh place West Ham United. COVID-19 put a halt to their campaign for nearly two weeks, but Aston Villa should be feeling good about itself right now considering their YTD goal differential (+13) places them right among the EPL’s best. I feel we are likely to see Villa make a charge up the table. 

Coming off the shocking win over Liverpool and then advancing to the 5th round of the FA Cup, Burnley might very well be overconfident heading into this fixture. They did play to a scoreless draw with AV back in December, but expect the visitors to score this time. Meanwhile, AV has conceded the third fewest times in the entire Premier League while Burnley’s 10 goals are tied for a league low. Europa League qualification is a real possibility for AV this season and I expect them to continue their chase by earning the full three points here. 10* Aston Villa

10* Over Knicks/Jazz (9:05 ET): The Knicks, on average, have produced the LOWEST scoring games in the league this season. The good news is that they are allowing the fewest number of points per game in the league at 103.6. The bad news is their own scoring average of 101.9 is also - by far - a league low. That combined game scoring average of 205.5 is a full 7.6 PPG lower than the next lowest team (Cleveland). I guess it shouldn’t be surprising then that the Under is 12-6 in all Knicks games this season. 

Utah has won eight in a row, the longest win streak that the league has seen so far in 2020-21. The Jazz have also covered the spread in all eight wins, so this is a team playing very well right now. They’ve clearly established themselves as the third best team in the West, behind only the two hailing from LA. In the last two games, they’ve scored 129 and 127 points. All but one of those eight consecutive victories have come by double digits. Shockingly, the Knicks are the last team to defeat Utah, having done so on January 6th at MSG by a score of 112-100. They were eight-point home dogs. 

Despite the score of the first meeting and the Knicks in general, I see tonight’s game “sneaking Over” the total. Utah is at home where they are averaging a very solid 114.6 PPG. They only shot 44% for the game on Jan 6 and missed 30 of 44 three-point attempts. That won’t happen again here. It is worth mentioning that despite only losing by three on Saturday to Portland, the Knicks trailed by as many as 25. They also trailed Utah by 18 before coming back to win. This is a really low total and while it matches the total # of points scored in the first meeting, it’s difficult to imagine there won’t be more points scored this time around. 10* Over Knicks/Jazz

10* Missouri (9:00 ET): A little surprised my power rankings are now saying Mizzou is a bit underrated here after earlier in the year, they (the power rankings) seemed to be lower on the Tigers than the market was. Do I think they are the #12 ranked team in the country (as they are in the latest AP/Coaches Polls)? No. But they are better than Tuesday’s opponent, Auburn, a team that has come on strong of late (5-0 ATS L5) but still doesn’t even crack the top 65 of my power rankings. Take the points here. 

Missouri has won and covered three straight, the latest win being very impressive as they went to Knoxville and beat Tennessee 73-64 as a 6.5-point underdog. That’s why they moved up to #12 in the polls. The Tigers have lost just twice all season, one of those being to Tennessee, so that’s now been avenged. The last three wins have been by a total of 36 points. Missouri shot very well in the 1H against Tennessee and played excellent defense throughout, holding the Vols to 35 percent in the 2H and forcing 18 turnovers. 

Auburn just hung 109 points on South Carolina Saturday, which is probably the reason they come in favored over a ranked team. Admittedly, the Tigers have looked much better since #1 recruit Sharife Cooper became eligible. Him playing coincides with the team’s 5-0 ATS run, but they are just 3-2 straight up in those games. They were actually the underdogs in Columbia on Saturday. This will be just the third time they’ve been favored in SEC play (if the line holds). Missouri has won four of the six games they’ve been an underdog. 10* Missouri

8* Western Michigan (6:00 ET): Western Michigan isn’t very good, but this number has grown far too high vs. Ohio Tuesday night. The last time the Bobcats were favored by double digits was against the worst team in the MAC (Northern Illinois) and they didn’t come close to covering as they won by just three points. While a solid 4-2 this month, the Bobcats have won just once by more than 10 points and I don’t think they’ll do that here as the team is only 8-6 SU on the year and 1-4 ATS off a SU win.

WMU has lost five in a row, four of them at home. While it sounds bad, be aware that the Broncos’ last four opponents are who I’d rate the top four teams in the conference. During the five-game losing skid, WMU has led or been tied at the half in three of them. That includes Saturday vs, Akron, whom they led 38-31 at the break. Eventually, this team is going to have a breakthrough. They are 2-0 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points this season. 

Ohio was dreadful from three-point range Saturday vs. Ball State, making only 5 of 22, but they compensated for it by taking 35 free throw attempts, which was a lot more than the 19 Ball State took. That advantage at the charity stripe is how the Bobcats won by eight. The game before, OU scored a season-low 26 pts in the 1H (at home) in a game they basically trailed wire-to-wire vs. Kent State. Just not convinced that this is a squad that belongs in this price range. In two of the last four games, the Bobcats have allowed 57% (or higher!) shooting. 8* Western Michigan

10* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Both teams could very well be short-handed coming into this one. Well, we know Iowa State will. The Cyclones have been hit hard by COVID-19 with their last four games, three of which were to be against Top 25 opponents, all postponed. They haven’t played since Jan 9th when they got their doors blown off by Texas Tech, 91-64, which left them at 2-7 overall and 0-5 vs. the Big 12. I faded ISU in that Texas Tech game and will do so again now as they’re in even worse shape. 

All Iowa State team activities have been paused for the L10 days, creating quite the challenging situation for HC Steve Prohm. Prohm has said the Cyclones will be without several players for tonight and that all four of his walk-ons will need to be “ready to play.” That doesn’t sound promising. This was already looking like a rough season in Ames and now the team has gone 10 days without a full practice. Because of protocols, no more than two players have been able to practice together at a time and players aren’t even allowed to see one another, unless they are roommates. 

Oklahoma State had a key absence Saturday as the Big 12’s leading scorer and presumed #1 NBA Draft pick Cade Cunningham did not suit up. But despite missing their best player, the Cowboys actually led #1 Baylor at the half! Cunningham was cleared for Saturday (COVID), but was not ready to play according to the coaching staff. His status for tonight remains unknown, but the bottom line here is that the Pokes are the much better team here. They’ve not only hung tough with the likes of Baylor, Texas & West Virginia, but also beaten Texas Tech and Kansas. If Cunningham does play, it’ll be a bonus as I don’t think this game will be close at all. 10* Oklahoma State

8* Under Sixers/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just played on Saturday and it was Philadelphia picking up a 114-110 win here in the Motor City. They did not cover the spread (were -8.5), yet will certainly take the SU win as it improved their overall record to 12-5 (#1 in the East). The Sixers have won three straight as well as five of the last six. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you’ve got the Pistons, who are a league-worst 3-13 SU. That’s not a shock (were projected to finish last in the East prior to the start of the year) and they’ve now lost their last four games.

Things were a bit higher-scoring than expected on Saturday as the teams combined to take 68 free throws and the Pistons made 14 three-pointers. Both numbers are certainly atypical. On average, these teams combine to average just 49 FT’s per game. The Pistons do actually average 13 three-point makes per game, but it was the percentage (42.8%) that was high on Saturday. Detroit comes into tonight shooting just 40.2% from the field (on all attempts) at home.

Philly has a top three defensive efficiency rating in the league, so they shouldn’t have much difficulty slowing down a Pistons team that is averaging only 105.6 PPG at home. Detroit was widely expected to be one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season and that’s “bearing fruit.” They have an effective field goal percentage below 50% on the year, one of only three teams that can say that. Meanwhile, the Sixers average only 105.7 PPG on the road, so this shapes up to be a low-scoring game. Joel Embiid, who had 33 points Saturday, is listed as questionable to play. 8* Under Sixers/Pistons

10* Kansas City (6:40 ET): The Chiefs are not only in, but hosting the AFC Championship Game for a third consecutive season. However, it certainly FEELS a lot different than last year when they rode a 7-game ATS win streak into the season’s penultimate game and defeated Tennessee 35-24 here at Arrowhead Stadium. That team would of course go on to win the Super Bowl and end the season on a 9-0 ATS win streak. This year, the Chiefs come into the AFC Title Game on a 1-8 ATS run and that one cover comes with an asterisk as some (myself included) were able to grab the Saints +3.5 in that game, which ended up being a 32-29 KC victory. Last week, they had to hold on to beat the Browns 22-17 (closed -7.5 most places) as Patrick Mahomes left the game with a concussion. I’m operating on the assumption that Mahomes is going to play Sunday. It’s not as if Kansas City hasn’t had to overcome some attrition before. In last year’s playoff run, they trailed by double digits in all three games!

Buffalo is in its first AFC Championship Game since 1994 when they were in the final year of their infamous four consecutive Super Bowl appearances (0-4), led by Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Bruce Smith. They are viewed as the “up and comers” in this matchup, but the reality is the Bills are a bit lucky to be here as they’ve been outgained in both playoff games, 472-397 by the Colts and 340-220 by the Ravens. Both games swung on goal-to-go decisions by the opposing team. Indianapolis failed to score a TD on 4th down while Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson threw a “pick-six” in the end zone when the game was still 10-3. 

Remember that the Chiefs got a first round bye, so that and the home field are two key advantages they have here. Back in Week 6, they won in Buffalo 26-17 as 5.5-point favorites, so we’re getting a ton of value with this line. I took the Chiefs in the first half of that game and won. Here I’ll play the full game as Mahomes has won 11 straight starts and is 26-14 ATS as a single-digit favorite. 10* Kansas City

10* Miami FL (6:00 ET): The Hurricanes are off a terrible 83-57 loss at Syracuse from earlier in the week. Even though that was their 7th loss in 10 games, “The U” is certainly due for better results as it has fallen by five points or less in five of those seven defeats. Look for them to get back on track Sunday vs. the Fighting Irish, who are off a rare win, just their second in the last eight games. The Irish have just one road win all year and it was by a single point over struggling Kentucky. Lay the points here. 

Notre Dame has played only four games in January and three of them were on the road. They lost at Virginia, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Then came an 80-70 win over Boston College last Saturday where they were 4.5-point favorites to win. It was a strong first half that propelled them to victory there, but the issue has been that the Irish are just not good defensively. They allow 75.7 PPG on the road. Being an underdog hasn’t been good at all for them as they are 5-33 SU L38 (1-8 this year) and 3-6 ATS this year.

Miami is solid defensively as they allow 64.2 PPG here in Coral Gables and a 39.5 FG%. I’d say what happened Tuesday in Syracuse was an atypical performance, not indicative of what the Canes are all about. As I alluded to earlier, this team has been rather unlucky in close games this season. They have three losses by two points or less. I say they bounce back in a big way here as ND is 0-4 ATS its L4 times playing with 7 or more days rest and dead last in the country at forcing turnovers. 10* Miami FL

9* Under Bucs/Packers (3:05 ET): Tampa Bay was able to eradicate some regular season “demons” last week, upsetting New Orleans 30-20 in the Divisional Round. I had the Under, which won by a far narrower margin (total closed at 53), and am now 2-0 in Bucs’ games this postseason. In the Wild Card Round, I faded them, laying a big number at Washington. Now they go from facing a team they lost to twice in the regular season to one that they defeated (albeit at home). Back on October 18th, the Bucs were my 10* Game of the Month as they crushed the Packers 38-10 as a 2.5-point home dog. 

You wouldn’t have known Green Bay was facing the best defense in the league last week as they rolled up 32 points in a two-touchdown victory over the Rams. Aaron Rodgers directed the Packers offense to 484 total yards, although the game was close (25-18) until he hit Allen Lazard with a 58-yard TD pass with just under seven minutes left. The Packers have now won seven in a row, scoring 30 or more points in all but one of those victories. Unlike the game in Tampa back in Week 6, they absolutely deserve to be favored here.

I was tempted to go with the Bucs this week, but considering they were underdogs at home for the first meeting, it could be argued that the value is on the other side of this NFC Championship Game matchup. Plus, as happy as I was to cash my 10* Game of the Month in October, that game was dramatically impacted by turnovers as the Bucs had a rare “pick-six” off Rodgers and a second INT was returned to the GB 2-yard line, setting up another easy TD. You could say the same about turnovers impacting last week’s win over the Saints where they forced FOUR, three of which were almost immediately converted into touchdowns as they started in “plus territory”. (They kneeled after the 4th, a drive which also started in Saints territory). But at the same time, it can’t be discounted that this Bucs’ defense (which is #1 in the league vs. the run) held GB to a season-low 201 total yards in that first meeting. It’s expected to be cold with a 50% chance of snow Sunday afternoon in Lambeau. 9* Under Bucs/Packers

8* Rhode Island (2:30 ET): I have faded Fordham before, successfully I might add. It was in home games vs. St. Bonaventure and UMass, back to back, that I stepped in and won. Sunday is another good time to fade. While Rams did cover the spread their last time out, staying within a 18.5-point spot against Davidson (lost 73-58), they still have yet to score 60 points in a game all season and that’s a problem when facing a Rhode Island squad that’s more than capable of hanging a big number here.

URI has had its own issues with the pointspread recently, losing games they were favored to win against UMass and Duquesne. It should be pointed out though that those outright losses came on the road. In fact, they’ve played just one home game since January 3rd. It was a 20-point win over George Mason last Saturday. The Rams come into this game sporting a 4-1 SU home record and I really like the fact they are holding the opposition to just 40.5% shooting for the season. 

Fordham has just one win this season and it came by a single point (55-54) in a shocking upset of Dayton (they were 12-point underdogs). Averaging only 51.0 points per game is really horrendous when you think about it and Rhode Island will not be in a giving mood Sunday having lost two of their last three games outright. URI is 3-0 ATS off a conference loss so far and this just might be the easiest game they’ve got left on the schedule. Note their last two losses were both by just two points, one in overtime and the other they blew a DD lead. 8* Rhode Island

7* Under Poirier/McGregor (11:59 ET): Conor McGregor is unsurprisingly a big favorite here and the ML price figures to get even steeper by the time these two fighters hit the cage. I’ve heard many respected MMA minds talking about how there is no way Dustin Poirier should be this big of an underdog and they do have a point. But who am I to doubt McGregor? This lightweight (155 lbs) fight is scheduled for five rounds, but I don’t see any way this thing gets close to going the distance. I’m taking the Under 2.5 rounds. 

The first time these two fought was over six years ago and McGregor ended things with a first round TKO in just 106 seconds. The expectation now is that Poirier is going to be a much “tougher out” as McGregor has tasted defeat twice since that win, losing to Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov. We faded him in the Nurmagomedov fight, but he has since bounced back a 40 second knockout of Donald Cerrone almost exactly one year ago. There have been only three times in his career that a McGregor fight has made it to the third round: the loss to Nurmagomedov, the win in the rematch with Nate Diaz and a decision over Max Holloway back in 2013. I think it would be foolish to expect this fight to go long, let alone the distance.

Poirier is 10-2 (w/ one NC) since his loss to McGregor to improve to 26-6 in his career (18-5 in UFC). My guess is that if he is able to “shock the world” and win here, it would be by early knockout, not grinding out a decision. Both fighters are going to come out looking to strike. The threat of a McGregor knockout is always very real, but Poirier’s striking has improved since the first fight, so there’s always a chance he gets “lucky.” But I’ve seen too many of these McGregor fights not to expect a first round stoppage.  7* Under Poirier/McGregor

10* Under Warriors/Jazz (9:05 ET): Right now, Utah clearly looks like the best Western Conference team outside the city of Los Angeles. They’ve won seven in a row and furthermore covered the number in all seven wins. Five of those games have seen them shoot 50% or better from the field and that’s in addition to posting a top five defensive efficiency rating for the season. Prior to a 129-118 win against New Orleans Thursday night, they’d held five consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. 

Golden State has obviously improved after last year’s injury-riddled disaster, but they may never again ascend to the championship heights of the five seasons before that. A 119-104 loss to the Knicks on Thursday leaves the Warriors at 8-7 SU and in ninth place in the West. That was a disappointing loss Thursday considering the Dubs were off a very impressive effort the night prior when they defeated San Antonio 121-99 as a 1-point home favorite. That was my 10* Game of the Week! 

The Dubs simply aren’t the same explosive offensive team we became accustomed to seeing under Steve Kerr. They are in the bottom third of offensive efficiency and shooting just 42.7% on the road this season. They connected at only 38.4% vs. the Knicks and that was at home. I mentioned Utah’s recent hot shooting at the top, but the good news for Golden State is that they haven’t let any opponent shoot 50% from the field since December 27th. The Under is 10-4 this season in Warriors’ games and 2-0 in Jazz’ games when the total is 220.0 or higher. 10* Under Warriors/Jazz

9* Over Texas A&M/Ole Miss (3:30 ET): I think we’ve hit a tipping point here where these teams are set to go Over the total. To be clear, the Aggies and Rebels have combined to go 21-4 Under this season while consistently producing low-scoring games. But this is the lowest O/U line to date (for either side) as oddsmakers were forced to react. It will be just the second game for A&M with a total lower than 130 points and the first for Ole Miss. Look for this one to “sneak Over” a very low total. 

While A&M comes into this game Saturday on a 9-game Under streak, several of those would have actually gone Over this O/U line. Four to be exact and it’s worth noting that only one of them has seen fewer than 122 total points scored, so that’s close. After losing 68-52 to Missouri last Saturday, the Aggies had their game vs. Vanderbilt postponed Tuesday. So they may not be as sharp defensively here.

Ole Miss held rival Miss State to just 46 points Tuesday, but before that they’d allowed over 70 in three consecutive contests. Their own scoring has dipped in SEC play, however, they are still averaging 71.2 PPG on the year and getting to that number today would almost ensure this game going Over. As I said earlier, this is the lowest O/U line either team has seen this season and in the case of the Rebels, only the last one was close. 9* Over Texas A&M/Ole Miss

7* Real Madrid (3:00 ET): The price has come way down and that’s because Los Blancos (Real Madrid) just experienced a terrible week that saw them not only lose in the Super Cup semifinals (2-1 to Athletic Bilbao), but also get bounced from the Copa del Rey by third-tier side Alcoyano. Real is actually winless in their last three fixtures as it was a scoreless draw with bottom of the table Osasuna in their most recent La Liga fixture. But let’s be “real” here, it’s still an eight-match unbeaten run for Real Madrid in La Liga action and they are second in the table with 37 points. I don’t think they have anything to worry about, at least this week. 

Alaves is a side I recently faded (successfully) as they went down 2-1 at the hands of Sevilla midweek. It was a game effort from El Glorioso, but let’s not forget about some of the previous failures I discussed in the analysis for that last match. Alaves was beaten 5-0 by Segunda Division side Almeria in their own unceremonious exit from the Copa del Rey, plus they are now winless in the last seven La Liga fixtures, a stretch which has seen them lose to two of this season’s three promoted sides. They recently sacked their manager as well. 

Alaves is now just one point clear of the relegation zone and making matters worse is the fact that 18th place Elche has two games in hand. As desperate as El Glorioso may be right now, this is not the spot for a turnaround. Coming off the two losses last week, Real Madrid should take no mercy on their opponents here and won’t be taking Alaves lightly considering they lost the reverse fixture, 2-1 back on November 28th. That was the last time Alaves won a La Liga match. 7* Real Madrid

7* Aston Villa (3:00 ET): Aston Villa’s disappointing 2-0 loss to Man City on Wednesday leaves them buried down in 11th place in the table. But despite that midweek setback, I actually think there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about this Premier League side. Because they’ve been one of the clubs most impacted by COVID-19, AV has 2-3 matches in hand compared to the rest of the league, so there’s a chance to make up ground. They have a goal differential (+13) that’s comparable to the top teams in the table. Saturday’s rescheduled date with struggling Newcastle United is a golden opportunity for three points that they should cash in on at Villa Park.

Newcastle is not doing well right now as they are off a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Arsenal. I took the Over in that one (2.5) and got it despite the fact Newcastle was kept clean for the fifth time in their last six fixtures. While still seven points clear of the relegation zone, Newcastle is sinking fast and in 15th place. Prior to the 3-0 loss Monday, they suffered a humiliating 1-0 defeat at the hands of last place Sheffield United. 

In what is shaping up to be one of the most competitive Premier League seasons ever, don’t rule out Aston Villa’s European hopes. This will be their first time playing at home since Boxing Day, which is when they picked up their last Premier League win, so it should be an inspired effort on Saturday. That last home fixture was a decisive 3-0 win over Crystal Palace, a fairly comparable side to Newcastle. Newcastle has no goals in their last five away matches and just one in the last five EPL outings. 7* Aston Villa

10* Weber State (2:00 ET): It’s rare that the oddsmakers make an error. It’s even rarer when they do so on the same matchup twice in a row. But that certainly appears to be the case here. I wish I would have gotten down on Weber State Thursday night when they hosted Southern Utah as the Wildcats rode a hot first half (led 47-27 at the break) en route to an easy 91-67 win and cover as three-point favorites. Despite that lopsided result, Weber State did not open as the favorite for this rematch on Saturday. I realize this game is in Cedar City, but my power ratings say the road team should be favored.

Getting back to the concept of the oddsmakers’ error, certainly it’s always possible that one team just had a “good day” and made them (the oddsmakers) look bad. But I don’t think that’s necessarily the case here. Yes, Weber State played a great game Thursday and they were at home (where they are now 7-0 SU this season). But I simply believe they are the better of these two teams. The Wildcats are now 6-1 ATS on the season and have won their last four games (all at home) straight up. They are only 1-3 SU on the road, but two of those losses were against Boise State and BYU, who are quality opponents.

Southern Utah is 10-3 SU, but they have four wins by five points or less and two one-point victories. Like Weber State, the Thunderbirds are undefeated at home (8-0 SU), so the expectation here will be for them to earn a split of this home and home. But it’s telling the line isn’t higher. Again, I think Weber State should be favored. Will the shooting be as lopsided as it was Thursday night? Probably not. But Southern Utah has a LOT of ground to make up and I don’t see that happening in less than 48 hours. 10* Weber State

7* Inter Milan (12:00 ET): Last week’s 2-0 victory over nine-time defending champion Juventus was probably Internazionale’s most impressive result this season. It ensured they kept some distance between themselves and third place in the Serie A table. Now a win Saturday can put them level with AC Milan for first place in the league. Considering Milan has a tough match on their hands this week (vs. Atalanta), this would seem to be a golden opportunity for Inter to pull even with 43 points. I expect them to get the full three here against struggling Udinese. 

Udinese was able to scratch out a point with a 1-1 draw vs. Atalanta last week, thanks to scoring a goal in the opening minute. But when you consider they conceded two-thirds of the possession time and outshot by a 3:1 margin, escaping with a point was probably fortunate. That leaves them in 15th place and only four points clear of the relegation zone. Recent form has been poor with Udinese winless in their last eight Serie A fixtures. They’ve lost four of them and only one time have they scored more than one goal.

This is not the matchup for Udinese to turn things around. Inter has beaten them in 9 of the last 11 fixtures and not even conceded once in any of the last five. Given Udinese’s recent scoring struggles, it’s tough to see them getting a goal here. Even in the last seven home fixtures with Inter, they’ve picked up just ONE point. Inter’s recent form is obviously excellent as they’ve been beaten just one time in their last 13 fixtures (all competitions). After a great week, now is not the time for a letdown. 7* Inter Milan

8* James Madison (12:00 ET): So something will have to give in this Noon ET tip in the Colonial. Northeastern is undefeated in the conference (6-0 SU and ATS) while James Madison is a perfect 4-0 ATS as underdogs. One thing is for sure. The visitors won’t lack motivation in this matchup. They’ve lost six straight times to the Huskies while also failing to cover every game. But this time, the number seems a tad too high. An early line move towards JMU seems to confirm my “suspicions” about this matchup.

Northeastern’s 6-0 start in the CAA has seen them sweep three teams - Elon, Hofstra and College of Charleston. Impressive as that may seem, three of the last four wins have come by five points or less. Now those are three that they played on the road. But still, the Huskies should feel a little fortunate. They just won two close ones last weekend at Charleston where they were slight favorites. The Huskies haven’t been favored by much in any of their conference games to this point. This opened as the largest spread to date. They have not been favored by more than six points in any game this season. 

James Madison has played only one conference game due to opponents’ COVID issues. They won that lone CAA tilt, beating Towson last Saturday by a score of 81-72 as a 2-point road dog. That was the Dukes’ third straight win dating back to Jan 5. Yes, three of their wins this season have been against non-DI teams. But they almost beat VCU as a 20-point underdog on the road, losing that game 82-81. Something that needs to be stated is that JMU has the CAA Player of the Year in Matt Lewis, who went for 30 points last time out and hit 9 of 12 three-pointers. Take the points. 8* James Madison

10* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): GCU is a team I’ve played before this season, when they hosted Nevada back on December 11th. They won that game 87-77 as a 1-point dog, at the time improving their won-loss record to a perfect 4-0. A three-game losing streak then followed, but two of those setbacks were by just 1 point and they actually covered all three. They’ve played just four games here in January, winning them all, including a pair of blowouts last week vs. non-DI team Bethesda (CA). The Antelopes’ ATS record this year is 7-1. 

Dixie State is new to D-I this season and the hodge-podge WAC seemed like the ideal landing spot for a team making the jump from Division II. However, as you may have guessed, things haven’t gone all that well for the Trailblazers this season. They are just 4-5 SU, two of those wins coming vs. non-DI teams and the other two coming by a combined four points. It’s a four-game losing streak heading into this game with two of those losses coming by at least 33 points. (Admittedly, one was vs. Gonzaga). 

Going by their 7-1 ATS record, it’s clear that the oddsmakers aren’t giving Grand Canyon enough respect and that continues to be the case with this number, which should be several points higher. Dixie State is among the very worst teams in the country (my own personal power ratings say bottom 15) and I don’t see how they deal with a GCU team that is shooting 53% from the field for the season. Bryce Drew’s Antelopes are the ONLY team in the country to rank Top 10 in both field goal percentage offense and defense! This is a decent team, at least when compared to the rest of the WAC lot. 10* Grand Canyon

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Mavericks ended their longest losing streak in two seasons (three games) Wednesday night, picking up a nice 124-112 win in Indiana. Believe it or not, that was the first game all season that the Mavs shot better than 50% from the field (52.4%). That’s shocking when you consider this team led the league in offensive efficiency last season. Despite the 3-game losing skid I mentioned at the top, the Mavs are still 6-2 ATS L8 games and I expect them to begin moving up the Western Conference standings in no time. They are 4-0 ATS off their previous four straight up victories. 

San Antonio is coming off its worst loss of the season, something I can’t say I’m sorry about. Their 121-99 loss to the Warriors Wednesday night was my 10* Game of the Week (on Golden State -1) and saw the Spurs never lead in the entire contest after falling behind by double digits in the first quarter. They trailed by as many as 25 at one point as it was a dreadful shooting night, particularly from three where they finished an unsightly 4 of 33. Will their shooting improve in this game? Yes, probably. But I still don’t think that will be enough. 

Since a four-game losing streak that surrounded the New Year, the Spurs have NOT dropped B2B games, going 6-3 SU overall. But I feel that distinction ends here tonight against what I view as a far superior team. I had the Mavs finishing in the top four in the West prior to the start of the season and right now they are 9th, so it’s time to get going. As I said in Wednesday’s analysis, the Spurs had been fairly fortunate recently, beating Portland and Houston when both were severely short-handed. 10* Dallas

8* Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): These Sun Belt foes met on three different occasions in the 2019 calendar year and each time the underdog emerged victorious. Coastal Carolina won 88-75 as a 5-point road dog in January of that year while Troy then returned the favor two months later with a 74-67 upset as 11-point pups. The first meeting of last season saw Troy win 77-59 as a 4.5-point dog. But then a “sense of normalcy” was restored in the second meeting as Coastal Carolina breezed to a 90-60 win and cover as nine-point chalk. That’s the way I think this one is going to go tonight. 

Troy comes in on a three-game losing streak, every loss coming on the road. They were swept at Georgia Southern last weekend, losing 67-64 and 63-56. Offense has been a major problem this season for the Trojans as they’ve failed to score 70 in 9 of their last 10 games vs. D-I opponents. (The exception being a 79-71 home win over Samford). For the season, they are averaging only 61.2 PPG and that number dips to an ugly 56.8 when away from home. Three-point shooting (24.5%) has been abysmal. This team is also only 13-27 ATS its L40 Sun Belt games.

Coastal Carolina is off a 71-68 loss to Georgia State, the only game they played last weekend. They did cover the spread though as seven-point road underdogs. Troy’s lack of offensive punch becomes a real problem when you consider the Chanticleers come in averaging a very healthy 87.1 PPG and that number jumps to 90.0 here in Conway. Granted, that’s somewhat inflated by wins over non-DI opponents, but still the team is shooting 50% from the field at home this season, including 40.6% from three-point range. Way too much firepower from the favorite in this one as CC looks to get back to the top of the conference. 8* Coastal Carolina

10* New Orleans (10:05 ET): Second meeting in the last three days for these teams. The Jazz took the first, 118-102 here at home on Wednesday night, as they shot well from three-point range (21 of 47) while the Pelicans did not (6 of 26). That 45-point difference from behind the arc more than accounted for the final score. Utah has looked quite good of late as they are on a six-game SU and ATS win streak, but you should not count out New Orleans in this spot as they are desperate for a win and getting a decent amount of points. 

With just one victory in their last seven games, New Orleans really needs to “get going.” That one victory came against defensively inept Sacramento on Sunday and other than that, the offense really hasn’t “been there” for Zion Williamson and company. The Jazz have been outstanding defensively during the win streak, but again that can change in an instant and I certainly don’t see the home team being as prolific offensively as they were Wednesday, especially from “downtown.” 

Williamson is coming off B2B 30+ point games for the first time in his career. Wednesday night’s contest was largely decided in the third quarter where the Jazz outscored the Pelicans by 16 points, which was the exact final margin for the game. I’m impressed with Utah’s fondness for the 3-point shot, but that can also lead to an “off-night,” which you have to think is coming. The team’s hot start really shouldn’t be that big of a surprise when you consider they’ve gone off as the favorite in 12 of 14 games. Take the points in this one. 10* New Orleans

10* Eastern Illinois (8:00 ET): Belmont has ruled the Ohio Valley Conference this season with a perfect 8-0 SU record and their only loss of 2020-21 came all the way back on December 5th to Samford. But it is worth noting that one loss did come here at home, a game where the Bruins were 17.5-point favorites. You have to think eventually this team is going to drop an OVC game and while it may not be tonight, the number the Bruins are laying seems quite large against an Eastern Illinois team that’s better than its record. 

Hopefully, Eastern Illinois gets its leading scorer (Josiah Wallace) back from a hamstring injury for tonight’s game. Wallace is second in the OVC in scoring (17.5 PPG) and the team has gone winless since he got hurt. The injury occurred 1/9 vs. Austin Peay, a game which the Panthers ended up losing at the buzzer, 74-71. After shockingly falling at home to Morehead State as seven-point favorites (87-61!), Tony Romo’s alma mater suffered another crushing defeat on Saturday as they fell in OT to Eastern Kentucky.

After three straight losses at home, it’s fair to say Eastern Illinois has underachieved. While the Wallace injury has a lot to do with that, this is a team that has plenty of senior talent and should be better than 3-10 ATS. I look for them to come out fired up here against a team they haven’t beaten since 2015. Belmont just gave up 91 points (no overtime) to Jacksonville State in its last game. Were Wallace to play, that would be a HUGE plus, but I’m taking the points regardless here as EIU should keep it close throughout. 10* Eastern Illinois

8* Memphis (7:00 ET): Memphis played at Tulsa on Sunday and I felt that line was way off. Turns out that I was incorrect in that assessment as the Tigers (who closed -1.5) lost by a single point, 57-56, to fall to 1-9 ATS on the season and 6-5 straight up. It’s certainly been an underwhelming season thus far for Anfernee Hardaway’s team and they’ve had three games postponed since December 30th, meaning the loss to Tulsa is the only time they’ve played this month. But there’s still time to “turn things around” and I believe it happens tonight at home vs. Wichita State. 

Wichita State’s recent form is a lot better than Memphis’ as the Shockers have won seven of eight and covered the last four. They’d had no issues with cancellations until Sunday when they were supposed to travel to SMU. I wonder if that breaks the “momentum.” Yes, I’m fully aware that in their last game the “Wheat Shockers” destroyed Tulsa 72-53, but that was at home. They’ve played just four “true” road games and while they’re 3-1 SU, the record could be worse considering all four games were decided by five points or less.

Memphis has been favored in every game this season, which should tell you something. This is a talented team with five double digit scorers and they play excellent defense, giving up only 58.0 PPG here at home. Wichita State has actually covered six in a row going back to 12/15 as two of their last eight games came against non-DI foes. Other than last time out (vs. Tulsa), they don’t have a dominant conference win to speak of, so I see the respective trends reversing tonight as the home team gets back on track. 8* Memphis

10* Atletico Madrid (3:30 ET): I am shocked to see the ML this low as Atletico Madrid may be the best team in all of Europe right now. The table leaders in La Liga have taken 41 points from their 16 matches thus far and what has to be “scary” for the rest of the field is the fact Atletico has played two (or in some instances THREE) fewer matches than everyone else. Having already won five straight in Spain’s top flight, they have a real shot at opening up a big lead by the halfway point of the season. I expect them to continue rolling on Thursday. 

It’s not as if today’s opponent (Eibar) is anything special. This side is only two points clear of the relegation zone and they have taken some embarrassing defeats recently, namely a 3-1 exit from the Copa del Rey over the weekend at the hands of Navalcarnero, a lower-level side. It’s become almost comical how few goals Eibar has scored in La Liga play with only 15 to speak of in their 18 matches. This seems like an especially poor time to be taking on the table leaders, who have conceded only SIX times all season! 

Eibar has just one win in its last six La Liga matches, that coming nearly three weeks ago against Granada. The fact they conceded eight goals in the three matches since is a troubling sign, especially when you consider two of the sides they faced are from a lower division. While it’s now been more than a month (five fixtures) since Atletico scored more than two goals in a match, Eibar’s recent form suggests that streak could be broken here. I see no reason why Atletico shouldn’t roll on Thursday as they look to continue to set the pace in La Liga. 10* Atletico Madrid

10* Golden State (10:05 ET): Last season was anything but normal in the NBA. There was a shutdown in March, a “bubble” beginning in July and the Finals weren’t completed until October. But on a less serious note, there was something else strange when it came to start the postseason. Neither the Spurs nor the Warriors were in sight. The two Western Conference stalwarts both missed the playoffs in 2020, but they’ve each got their respective eyes back on them this season. The Spurs come in at 8-6 SU on the year and currently sit 5th in the West. Golden State, at 7-6, isn’t too far behind (in 7th). 

Last time out, the Spurs were able to take advantage of a short-handed Portland team (no Nurkic or McCollum) and won 125-104 as 1.5-point favorites. It was their second straight victory as they were also able to beat the Rockets 103-91 as seven-point chalk two days earlier. Again, that was a short-handed opponent though. In the wake of the James Harden trade, Houston was down to only eight players and almost couldn’t play. Yet they still led San Antonio for much of the first three quarters. 

Golden State was obviously short-handed for most of last year as injuries caused them to nosedive down the standings. San Antonio, like a lot of other teams, took advantage and swept the season series from the Warriors. It was two wins, one in overtime. But this year’s Warriors, while still not back at their Championship level, are much better with Steph Curry playing every day. They just upset the Lakers on Monday, a game where I backed them to cover. This line looks low to me. 10* Golden

10* Arkansas (9:00 ET): After starting the season 8-0, Arkansas has struggled, losing four of its last five games. But tonight the Razorbacks are matched up against a team they’ve already beaten once this year and that win came on the road with little difficulty. Now they welcome Auburn to Fayetteville where their WL record is still 9-1 SU + they are averaging 88.7 PPG. Auburn has struggled on the road, not just this season (where they are 1-3 SU), but the L3 seasons as they’ve gone 7-17 ATS. Lay the points here.

I remember the first Arkansas-Auburn matchup well as I won by laying the points with Arkansas. The game went down on December 30th and featured plenty of offense with the Hogs winning by a final score of 97-85. Key for me is that they were laying 3.5 points in that one, now they’re laying only slightly more at home. Thus, I’m seeing plenty of value here given how that first game played out. Auburn actually shot 51.9% in the first meeting, including 15 of 27 on three-pointers, yet still lost by double digits at home! 

The Tigers are quite unlikely to match those shooting percentages tonight. They are shooting just 28.4% on the road this season from three-point range. Even with red-hot shooting, they couldn’t beat Arkansas at home. Therefore, I just don’t see much of a path to victory this time. Arkansas has gone cold in its L5 games (39.2 FG%), but given their YTD scoring average (12th in the country!) should bounce back. They shot nearly 50% from the field in the 1st meeting and also had an edge at the FT line, making 77% compared to 58% for Auburn. Those free throw percentages are right in line with the respective season averages. Off a horrible game vs. Alabama, this is a prime “buy low” spot for the Razorbacks, who are holding opponents to just 64.3 PPG in Fayetteville. 10* Arkansas

8* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is flat out rolling right now. It’s 12 straight wins for the Broncos following a season-opening loss at Houston, for which there should be no shame at all (Houston is a top 10 team). All but one of those 12 victories has been by double digits and when I took them on New Year’s Eve (at San Jose State), they won 106-54 as a 22-point favorite! The Broncos are one of a dwindling number of teams in the country that still has a perfect conference record and I see things staying that way tonight against overmatched Fresno State.

The Bulldogs come in at just 5-5 SU on the year and the road has been rather unkind to them. They’ve lost all four previous road games (by an average of 18.5 PPG) and none of them have been close. Last weekend saw FSU get swept in Reno, losing by 14 and 16 in two games vs. Nevada. That’s actually better than they did earlier in the year at Colorado State when they dropped two in a row by a combined 44 points. They’re now at Boise for a pair this week (next game is Friday) and it’s difficult to see how a team that’s 1-5 ATS vs. .500 or better teams competes here. 

Furthermore, four of Fresno State’s five wins this season have come against either non-DI teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific) or San Jose State (worst team in the MWC). They are 0-4 ATS as underdogs. They have shot just 38.1% in those four previous road losses and are making only 24% of their three-point attempts. They are also a horrible free throw shooting team. Boise State is 28th in the country in scoring (81.8 PPG) and their average margin of victory in MWC play so far is an eye-popping 23.4 PPG. They allow only 58.4 PPG at home. 8* Boise State

6* Villareal (3:30 ET): As I mentioned in yday’s La Liga analysis, there’s a real “dividing line” between the top six in the table and everyone else. Perhaps it shouldn’t come as any great shock that it’s the same top six that finished at the top of the table last season, albeit the order is currently different. Villareal is currently 4th, one spot higher than LY’s finish and has the second fewest number of losses in all of La Liga currently w/ only 2. Only table leaders Atletico Madrid have tasted defeat fewer times.

Granada is 7th again (where they finished LY), but there are some troubling signs for this side, namely a -8 YTD goal differential. That has them in line with some of the teams towards the bottom of the table and the biggest issue of all is they’ve conceded more times (29) than anyone else here in La Liga.  Granada’s possession numbers weren’t great last season, so a tumble down the table is something I’d anticipated. While that really hasn’t happened as of yet, everything is pointing to the fact it likely WILL happen.

Villareal has now won four straight across all competitions following a 1-0 victory over Tenerife in Copa del Rey action this past weekend. The Yellow Submarine has lost just ONCE in their last 24 across all competitions and they are unbeaten at home this season. Granada was also successful in the Copa del Rey last time out and before that they defeated 19th place Osasuna 2-0. But their away form hasn’t been good as they’ve won only two of eight on the La Liga road this season, scoring a league-low five times in that run. This would appear to be an even bigger mismatch than the existing odds say it is. 6* Villareal.

10* Stuttgart (2:30 ET): This is a matchup of the two promoted sides for this Bundesliga season, Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld. One is certainly faring better than the other in the German top flight as Stuttgart is currently 10th in the table, but is actually performing even better than that when you consider they have the 6th best goal differential (+8) in the league. Meanwhile, Bielefeld is really struggling as they are down in 15th, dangerously close to the relegation zone. They’ve scored only 10 goals, easily the fewest in the entire Bundesliga through 16 weeks. Stuttgart has TRIPLED the number. 

This marks the second time in three weeks I’m taking Stuttgart. They turned in an excellent performance the last time, destroying Augsburg by a score of 4-1. Last week was a 2-2 draw with Gladbach, but there’s no shame there. No side in the entire Bundesliga has been more successful on the road this season than Stuttgart, who has picked up 17 points from their eight matches on the road. That they’ve only won one time in their last five Bundesliga matches is of no concern as you need to look at the caliber of the competition they’ve been facing. This will be their first crack at a side residing at the bottom of the table since a 2-1 win over Werder Bremen on December 6th.

Things have been getting a bit better for Arminia Bielefeld of late as they’ve picked up four points from their previous two matches, a 1-0 win over Hertha Berlin and a scoreless draw with Hoffenheim. But in addition to the lack of goal scoring (just two in the last six matches!), Bielefeld’s other issue here is a step up in class. Other than a 1-0 loss to Gladbach, they’ve faced nothing but teams from the bottom half of the table over the past two months. 10* Stuttgart

7* Manon Fiorot (Time TBD): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the Women’s Flyweight Division. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts though Fiorot is 5-1 in her pro career while Victoria Leonardo is 8-2. Fiorot has been bet up pretty heavily and I agree with this line move.

Fiorot lost her pro debut via split decision back in June of 2018. Since then, it’s been five consecutive victories and the last three have all been finishes, each taking fewer time than the previous one. Her most recent fight was back in November and ended in Round 1 as she defeated Gabriela Campos via TKO. While she likes to strike from a distance, Fiorot has also demonstrated some grappling skills in her short MMA career. What I look for is for her to dictate the terms of this fight. 

Leonardo comes by way of Dana White’s Contenders Series. She was not expected to defeat Chelsea Hackett back in November, but did (2nd round TKO) and thus earned the contract. Leonardo is aggressive and will be the most physically imposing opponent Fiorot has faced to date. But I feel she lacks the necessary skill to win over the course of 15 minutes. It’s notable that Fiorot did not have to go through DWCS to get signed by the promotion. Also, Leonardo has been stopped twice before. 7* Manon Fiorot

8* Illinois (8:30 ET): There really is no excuse for Illinois to have lost so many games thus far, even though four of the five defeats have come by six points or less (three by 3 pts or less) and the other to #2 Baylor. My own personal power ratings still consider the Fighting Illini a top 10 team in the country, but right now they are on the verge of falling out of the Top 25 in both polls (AP/Coaches) after suffering B2B losses to Maryland and Ohio State in the L9 days. Both those losses came here in Champaign! I can’t see a third straight home loss, so I’ll lay the points against a team the Illini have already beaten this season. 

This is a rematch from 12/23 when Illinois went to Happy Valley and won 98-81 as four-point chalk. Based on that line and result, you can see we are getting some value with the favored side tonight. Penn State shot 53.8% in that first meeting, something they are very unlikely to do here in the rematch as their FG% on the road this season is just 39.7. They allowed Illinois to shoot 55% in the first go-around as I see no reason why the Illini can’t come close to matching that number tonight, given how they are shooting overall (51.3%) for the season. 

Penn State has played just twice since that loss to Illinois last month. They’ve gone down in road games at Purdue and Indiana, the latter taking place Sunday. It was the third game in a row the Nittany Lions allowed at least 80 points. That’s not a good sign when taking on the 7th most efficient offense. Remember what I mentioned earlier, the Illini hung 98 points in the first meeting. Poor starts have doomed Brad Underwood’s team the L2 games. I do not see that happening here. 8* Illinois

10* SE Missouri State (7:00 ET): This is a matchup of two not-so-good Ohio Valley Conference sides and the bottom line is you would want to take the points, no matter who was favored. I’ve got the teams rated virtually even, so there’s really no reason that Tennessee State should be laying this many points … to anyone. They are last in the OVC with a 1-6 SU record and just 2-8 SU overall. While five of those losses have come by four points or fewer (what crummy luck!), I still would never endorse the Tigers as chalk. 

SE Missouri St is just 3-8 SU and 1-4 vs. the rest of the OVC. But they are 5-1 ATS on the road as well. They actually covered the spread at Belmont, notable as that’s the class of the conference and the Bruins also happened to destroy Tennessee State by 25 here in Nashville. Now the RedHawks have just one SU win in their last eight games, but it came against … Tennessee State back on January 2nd! It was an 83-79 win for SEMS, a game that went to double overtime. That the RedHawks won was pretty remarkable when you consider they shot just 35.8% including 5 of 23 from three-point range. 

SEMS has also had poor luck in close games, losing four games that were decided by six points or less. They did win the close one vs. TN State, doing so as 1.5-point chalk. I see no reason why the line should have swung so much for the rematch. As an underdog, the Red Hawks are 6-3 ATS this season with outright wins over UMKC and Lipscomb. Tennessee State has been favored only two other times, one of those being their last game, which they lost outright at Tennessee Tech 74-71. Take the points. 10* SE Missouri State

10* Sevilla (3:30 ET): There is a clear dividing line between the top six and everybody else in La Liga this season. Sevilla is a side that finds itself in the former group, but in sixth place. A win on Tuesday could move them into fourth however and that’s obviously a spot the reigning Europa League Champs would love to be in. The opponent here is an Alaves side that’s in very poor form right now. There’s no sugarcoating what was an awful 5-0 loss to Segunda Division side Almeria over the weekend in the Copa del Rey. Given that and other recent results, I don’t see how they have a chance against one of the best sides in the Spanish top flight. 

Sevilla was successful in their Copa del Rey fixture over the weekend, 1-0 over Leganes, with the lone goal coming in the 96th minute. That had to be a pleasant sight for Las Palanganas after they were beaten 2-0 by table leaders Atletico Madrid in their last La Liga fixture. Of course, there’s no shame in losing to that side as Atletico Madrid very much has a legit claim to being the best team in all of Europe right now. Before that loss, Sevilla had been unbeaten in nine straight across all competitions.

Form couldn’t be more different for Alaves right now as they’ve sacked their manager and are winless in their last six La Liga fixtures. That leaves them 16th in the table and just two points above the dreaded relegation zone. Something to keep in mind is that Alaves hasn’t exactly been taking on La Liga’s best during their recent swoon. They’ve lost against two of this season’s promoted sides - Huesca and Cadiz - the former being the last place team in the league. In the midst of this managerial change, I don’t see how El Glorioso keeps pace here. 10* Sevilla 

7* West Ham (1:00 ET): West Ham will look to continue its recent strong form on Tuesday when they host a West Brom side that’s off a rare win. The Hammers have won three in a row across all competitions and are unbeaten in the last four EPL fixtures. They’ve yet to concede a single goal in 2021, keeping four consecutive clean sheets, so this matchup against the side that’s conceded more than anybody this season seems rather ideal. Anything less than the full three points here would be a major disappointment for WHU.

It was a bit of a shocker to see West Brom emerge victorious over the Wolves, 3-2, on Saturday. It was their first win in six tries under new manager Sam Allardyce and just their second overall this season. They remain firmly entrenched in the relegation zone with just 11 points from their 18 matches, leaving them 19th in the table, ahead of only Sheffield United. They are five points back of 17th place, which is where they need to be to avoid relegation. They’ve conceded 41 goals thus far, which is seven more than anybody else and as a result, West Brom’s -27 YTD goal differential is the EPL’s worst. 

So like I said earlier, there’s no reason that West Ham shouldn’t get the full three (points) here. They’ve suffered only one defeat in their L10 home matches and West Brom is winless in their previous nine matches here at London Stadium. After three straight victories by a score of 1-0, look for the Hammers to find the back of the net multiple times in this one against the leakiest defense in the EPL. Head to head results w/ West Brom aren’t as good as you might think, but that should only serve to have WHU extra motivated as they look to chase down a European qualifying spot. 7* West Ham

10* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Lakers, as expected, have been very good this season as they lead the Western Conference with an 11-3 SU record. They’ve won five in a row and 9 of their last 10. Their YTD point differential (+11.0 per game) is the league’s best and their net efficiency rating is right on par with Milwaukee. What I’m saying is that, yes, the defending NBA Champs are again the team to beat. They’ve won four straight by double digits, but look for tonight’s game to be a little closer than expected as they’re facing a Golden State team that’s eager to get back to the pinnacle of the league once again.

Last year was an injury-induced disaster for the three-time champion Warriors and a bounce back was all but assured for 2020-21. Just how much they “bounce back” remains to be seen as the Dubs currently sit 8th in the West and aren’t the same offensive juggernaut they used to be. They’ve lost B2B games - to Indiana and Denver - and had a game vs. Phoenix postponed on Friday. Having not played since Thursday, I’m expecting a hot start here from the fresh Warriors in this nationally televised affair. 

One key for the Dubs will be maintaining their recent play on the defensive end. They’ve held six straight opponents under 115 points and if they can do that again here, they should be able to easily cover the large spread. The Lakers have actually lost each of the L3 years on MLK Day -- by a total of 60 points! Also, all three losses this season have come at home. With a game at Milwaukee later this week, the Lakers may be overlooking the Warriors and that would be a mistake. I smell a big game from Steph Curry. 10* Golden State

8* VMI (7:30 ET): These SoCon rivals met three times last year, once in the Conference Tourney, and while East Tennessee State won all three games straight up, it was VMI that covered the spread every time. The losses were by six, five and 13 points and the Keydets have nothing to hang their heads over as East Tenn State was a good team last season. This season, the Buccaneers aren’t quite as strong, hence this line being in the single digits (something that wasn’t the case in any of the three meetings LY). 

VMI is a strong offensive team, which was very evident on Saturday when they defeated The Citadel 110-103. No, there was no overtime. The Keydets are now averaging 82.1 PPG on the season, so it’s going to either take a lot of points by ETSU, or a really strong defensive effort, to cover the number here. VMI is 7-3 ATS on the year, including 4-0 if they allowed 80+ points the previous game. I realize their defense is shaky, but this is a spot the Keydets usually cover in. Also, two of their last four losses have been by two points. 

East Tennessee State is coming off a loss, 78-66 at Wofford where they were 9.5-point underdogs. That was their first game in two weeks, but it was late, not early, that saw them struggle. The Buccaneers can’t score at the rate VMI does and while they are the better defensive team here, I don’t think they’ll be able to contain the opponent enough to cover this large of a spread. ETSU has only been favored in three games so far and only one time by more than 3.5 points. They failed to cover, laying 12.5 to Gardner-Webb. Two of ETSU’s last three opponents have shot at least 50% from the field. 8* VMI