8* Boston (7:05 ET): Well, after coming from behind to win Game 1 (2-1), the Bruins dropped Game 2. But a split in Ottawa was all that was necessary to take home ice advantage away in this series. It's a series where I've played Boston both games. Despite an 0-4 SU regular season record vs. the Sens, I maintain that it's the Bruins that are the better team here. They a) had a vastly superior goal differential during the regular season (+22 to -2), b) owned the league's best per game shot differential during the regular season (+6.4) and c) had the league's top ranked penalty kill. None of those things have changed after two games so I'll stick with the same side for Game 3 as the scene shifts to Beantown. 

I can make a pretty compelling case that Ottawa is the weakest team in the entire playoff field. Not only are they the only one out of 16 to be outscored during the regular season, they had pretty pedestrian special teams as well (23rd on power play, 22nd in penalty killing). They are just 22nd in goals scored overall. Let's not forget they had to rally back from a 3-1 deficit to win Game 2, in overtime. Surprisingly, their 1st goal came on the power play. Remember that the club had previously dropped 7 of 10 and only once during that time did they score more than three goals. While technically not a power play goal, the GW in Game 2 came seconds after the Bruins' Zdeno Chara returned to the ice after taking a delay of game penalty. As you might ascertain from them having the top ranked PK unit, Boston is usually more sound in such situations.

The Bruins' blue line is currently experiencing some attrition, which is a bit of a concern. But despite Chara playing heavy minutes, the team was in a good position after 40 minutes on Saturday. Between the pipes, I still trust Tuukka Rask more than I do Craig Anderson. It's been unusual that Bruins aren't dominating in terms of the number of shots on goal. Perhaps a return home will tilt that number in their favor. Ottawa has actually won three straight times here, but I can't see that streak continuing. Not with Boston owning a +7.8 edge in shots per game on home ice. Again, going back to the start of this analysis, I just refuse to believe that the regular season sweep by Ottawa is indicative of where these two teams are at. 8* Boston

9* Under Rays/Red Sox (11:05 AM ET): Two of the first three games of this series have been slugfests. Those would be the opener (won 10-5 by the Rays) and then yday's rubber match (won 7-5 by the Red Sox). In between was a 2-1 win for the home team and I think for today's finale we're likely to see something more along those lines. Yes, I'm well aware of what happened to Boston starter Steven Wright his last time out as the knuckleballer tossed a disastrous 1 1/3 IP where he allowed EIGHT runs and four homers! But, he should fare a lot better here in this early start as a general rule is that knuckleballers tend to perform far better in day games. Tampa Bay's Blake Snell was sharp his last time out, giving up just two unearned runs to the Yankees. Take the Under.

Boston's offense led the league in scoring by a mile last season, but it's only April. They've certainly gotten the job done so far on this home stand, averaging 4.9 runs per game while batting a collective .312, but this O/U line is high. Outside of Coors Field, you don't see many double digit totals. Snell doesn't have a large body of work against the Red Sox, but one positive sign is that Mookie Betts is 0 for 5 all-time against him. Note that the Under was 28-22-5 for Boston last year in day games. It's 5-3 this year and the lineup remains not at full strength. Hanley Ramirez left yday's game w/ a hamstring issue while Jackie Bradley Jr is still on the DL. Last year on Patriot's Day, the Sox lost 4-3 to Toronto. The year before they won 7-1 over Baltimore, but five of those runs scored were of the unearned variety. 

Wright is obviously key to this play. Having posted an unfathomable 13.50 ERA and 2.25 WHIP thus far, those numbers can only come down. As stated earlier, his knuckleballer should be working better here in the daytime. If for some reason, it's another early exit for Wright (don't think it will be!), note the Boston bullpen has been pretty lights out to this point. They've posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.05 WHIP so far and those numbers have been even better on the homestand. Tampa Bay, by the way, is batting a paltry .203 on the road this year. They were one of the lower scoring offenses in all of MLB last season and project for a similar finish in 2017. The Red Sox' eight day games thus far have seen an average of just 7.6 rpg scored, so again, this number appears to be very inflated. 9* Under Rays/Red Sox

10* Columbus (6:05 ET): I reckon that everyone has pretty much given up on the Blue Jackets at this point as they're down 0-2 to the Penguins and have dropped eight of nine overall. But if the old adage that "a series doesn't truly start until the home team loses a game," then that read may be a bit premature. Home ice advantage is likely to prove critical in this series (as we've seen in the first two games) and ultimately will probably be the reason the Pens advance. But considering Columbus is 5-1 its last six times hosting Pittsburgh and 28-12-1 SU here at Nationwide Arena this season, I wouldn't write them off yet. Especially in this "must win" spot. They've averaged 36 shots on goal in the first two games and eventually are due to break through against Marc-Andre Fluery. 

With Matt Murray still hurt, Fleury will remain the Pens' lone option between the pipes. So far, he's stopped 70 of 72 shots in the series, which is probably an unsustainable percentage. Furthermore, it was rare down the stretch to see Fleury start in consecutive games, let alone three straight. In fact, the last time we saw Fleury start consecutive games was back before the All-Star Break, in early January and that came w/ a week of rest in between. Bottom line is that I expect his play to regress tonight. Backing this assertion up is the fact Fleury's save percentage on the road this season was a very subpar .887. Pittsburgh won only 4 of the 16 road games he started in the regular season. The Pens had a losing record overall away from home in the regular season and the number of shots they allow continues to be a concern for me. 

So far, Columbus' shooting percentage is a ridiculously low 2.8%. Given that shooting percentage tends to always regress to the mean, I expect them to start finding the back of the net w/ more regularity moving forward. Remember that the Blue Jackets finished the regular season w/ a slightly better goal differential than the Penguins. They were not only sixth in goals scored, but also second in goals allowed. Sergei Bobrovsky's play at home was a big reason for the latter ranking as he went 25-9 SU here in C-bus w/ an outstanding .941 save percentage. The two home games this year vs. Pittsburgh, both started by Bobrovsky, saw him allow just two goals on 65 shots. 10* Columbus

10* Under Blazers/Warriors (3:30 ET): News flash: Golden State finished tied for top honors as an Under team during the regular season. A combination of high totals and their underrated defense was the culprit there. They finished 49-32-1 Under in all games, including 21-12-1 in the second half. In what projects as - easily - the most lopsided first round playoff series, the two-time defending Western Conference Champs draw Portland, who by making the playoffs probably didn't do wonders for their future (could have used the lottery pick). The Blazers fell off somewhat dramatically this year, going from 5th to 8th in the West, though it was only a difference of three wins. Things got a lot better once they acquired Jusuf Nurkic from Denver, but he's now hurt and no one is picking them to do much in this series.

The pointspread is the "great equalizer," however, thus I'll be staying away from the side for Game 1. Instead, let's take a look at the total. As mentioned above, Golden State is quite underrated defensively. We all know they ranked 1st in offensive efficiency (third straight year doing so), but they were also 2nd in defensive efficiency, trailing only San Antonio. The real key for them is defending the three-point line. They were #1 in the league, allowing just 32.4% shooting from behind the arc. Given that the three-point shot is such a big component of Portland's arsenal, they are likely to be "up against it" here. Furthermore, Nurkic may not play, which would be a devastating blow. After scoring 130 pts (against lowly Phoenix) in their first game w/o him, it's been major regression ever since. Over the L5 games (all w/o Nurkic), the Blazers have seen their scoring average dip below 100 PPG. 

Golden State will certainly "get theirs" today, but if the game turns into a blowout, then expect the scoring to slow down in the latter stages. Three times in the regular season, the Dubs scored at least 125 pts on Portland, but I do not expect that to be the case here today. When playing w/ three or more days rest this season, the Blazers are 3-0 Under. Nurkic was averaging 15-10, so that's a significant loss. Six times in the last nine visits to Oakland, Damian Lillard has been held to 20 pts or fewer while shooting below 36 percent from the field. 10* Under Blazers/Warriors

9* San Diego (1:35 ET): Thus far, it appears as if the unveiling of the Braves' new park (SunTrust Park) in suburban Cobb County was worth the wait. The home team has won the first two of this four-game set, Friday's opener being my *10* Game of the Week. But despite the Padres rather ominous projection for the year, I'm switching course Sunday and moving to them. They'll get to face Bartolo Colon here, a major reprieve after dealing w/ Julio Teheran and knuckleballer RA Dickey the L2 days. Despite being at a disadvantage on the mound, San Diego has been competitive the first two games of the series, even taking an early 2-0 lead yday. Remember - it's not like Atlanta is going to be some juggernaut this season. Good value here.

Today sees the Padres sending Trevor Cahill out to the bump. In his 1st start of '17, Cahill allowed three runs (only two earned) in five innings. But he and his team were overmatched in LA (1st series of the year) as +225 underdogs. You'll note Cahill hasn't pitched in 11 days. He landed on the DL w/ a back injury after throwing 99 pitches vs. the Dodgers (most in a start since '14). The time off should do him some good. The Braves lineup he'll be facing today is hardly formidable. In fact, Atlanta has yet to score more than five runs in any game this year! Day games have seen their bats get particularly anemic, averaging just 3.0 rpg as they're 0-3. 

The ageless wonder Colon looked good in his 1st start, which came against his former team, the Mets. But he struggled mightily on Tuesday as Miami hit him up for six runs in just four innings of work. Going back to the end of last year, the rotund righty has given up a home run in five consecutive outings. So far this year, San Diego has homered in every game but two, including twice yday in what is supposed to be a pretty hitter-friendly park. Atlanta's bullpen has been unusually good the L2 games and I'm not convinced that will continue. Eventually, Colon has to reach the "end of the line" as well and I seriously doubt he'll be able to match last season's renaissance when he went 15-8 w/ a 3.43 ERA, especially considering he's pitching for a bad team. 9* San Diego

10* Utah (10:35 ET): Make no mistake about it. The fact that the Jazz conceded home court advantage to the Clippers late in the year for this 1st round playoff series could end up being their death knell. But, that's no reason to think they can't be competitive or even steal a game here at Staples Center. After all, the Jazz did finish the year w/ a superior efficiency rating. They are also the superior defensive team here, ranking third in the league in defensive efficiency and first in points allowed. That's obviously significant. The Clips' three regular season wins over the Jazz all did come by double digits, but I anticipate this game being close w/ the underdog certainly having a shot at the outright win. Take the points.

Look for the Jazz to slow the pace down in this series. They played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season. That aided them in giving up just 96.8 points per game. Considering the defensive numbers, I have been absolutely shocked to see this team struggle as an underdog. They are just 5-17 SU and 6-15-1 ATS in that role, but it's rare that they get this many points. It's difficult to overstate Rudy Gobert's impact on the defensive end as he averages a league-high 2.64 blocks per game. For so much of the year, this team was not healthy. They still won 51 times and remember they were priced to win 60. That's more than the Clippers, who were favored "only" 58 times.

After a 14-2 SU start, LA went a modest 37-29 the rest of the way. Yes, some of that was Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both missing time. When that duo plays together, this is certainly a dominant team. But while bench play is somewhat mitigated this time of year, the Clippers' reserves have long been an albatross. In the four head to head meetings between these two, the Jazz' reserves outplayed their Clippers' counterparts. In their three losses to the Clippers, Utah shot poorly. I do not anticipate that being the case here in Game 1 as overall this was a good shooting team (46.6 FG%) during the year. 10* Utah

8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (8:05 ET): By 2017 NBA standards, this Game 1 total is incredibly low. Granted, these teams ranked 1-7 in defensive efficiency during the regular season and just combined for only 168 points in regulation in their last meeting. But I still believe you have to go Over a total as low as this one.This O/U line is lower than any of the four regular season matchups. San Antonio games average slightly more than 203 PPG while Memphis games average slightly more than 200 PPG. Those numbers are noticeably higher than the Game 1 O/U line here. San Antonio averages over 105 PPG, so I'm not concerned at all over the fact they failed to break 100 in any of their final three reg season contests (when they had NOTHING to play for). Take the Over.

There's no sugarcoating this one iota. Memphis has received terrible news in that ace defender Tony Allen is expected to miss this entire series. Expect his absence to further hurt a Grizzlies defense that slipped in the second half. Allen's calf injury occurred in the regular season finale, so we don't have a huge body of work to go on when he's M.I.A.. But we do know that he was the primary defended on the Spurs' Kawhi Leonard and played a large role in holding him to 23 of 54 shooting in three regular season games. Also, Leonard missed one of the regular season matchups, a game where the Spurs scored just 74 pts. Just go ahead and toss that game out the window as it bears little meaning here and only skews San Antonio's scoring capability against Memphis. Note that w/o Allen in the lineup, the Grizz gave up a MINIMUM of 95 pts every game and an average of 101.7 PPG. 

San Antonio averages over 105 PPG at home and Memphis' defense suffers on the road. So, the question now becomes: can the Grizzlies score enough to help send this one over? Yes. If Marc Gasol regains his January form. Also, three-point shooting will be key. Grizzlies' road games were substantially higher scoring than their home games, in part due to their own scoring average rising. The end result of that was a 24-17 Over mark in their road games. This wasn't a great shooting team down the stretch, but they can't get any worse and their defense is likely to slip significantly w/o Allen. San Antonio should shoot better here than it did down the stretch as well. 8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs

8* Chicago (8:05 ET): It would be difficult to fathom the Blackhawks falling down 0-2 to the Predators, especially with the first two games here at the "Madhouse on Madison." As simplistic as that may sound, that's precisely my rationale here for Game 2. In the series opener, I was on the Under and that play was as "easy as it comes" being that Nashville prevailed by a 1-0 score. Goaltender Pekka Rinne made 29 saves behind a dominant blue line performance and thus Chicago came up empty on the scoreboard. But I anticipate them scoring multiple times Saturday as they even this series up at a game apiece before heading back to the Music City.

Consider that the Preds did not have a single 1-0 win during the regular season. It was also their first road shutout in playoff history. They should be thankful for Rinne though b/c they only managed 20 shots on goal. Not only did Chicago have more shots on goal, they won more faceoffs as well. It was a 23-9 edge in shots for the 'Hawks over the final two periods. Nashville was not a particularly strong road team during the regular season. In fact, their 17-20-4 record was the worst among all playoff teams. (Anaheim had the same number of total losses, but fewer in regulation). Meanwhile, Chicago was predictably strong here on home ice, going 26-10-5. They are also 9-2 SU here vs. the Preds the L3 seasons. In other words, I am not concerned that the Blackhawks have lost five in a row overall. 

In the analysis for my Under play on Game 1, I talked about Nashville's recent scoring drought. They did score seven goals in a win over Dallas on April 6th. But they've been held to exactly one goal in six of their last eight games overall. Perhaps the key trend in handicapping this Game 2 matchup is that the Preds are 0-4 SU this season off a shutout win. Don't forget that the Blackhawks have Corey Crawford, who has a .929 save percentage this season at home. They have eliminated Nashville from the playoffs before and as the top seed this year, there's no reason to think they can't come back and do it again. But falling down 0-2 and having to go on the road for the next two games would be an almost insurmountable hole. Therefore, I look for this veteran team to get the job done. 8* Chicago

10* Over Bucks/Raptors (5:35 ET): I think this is going to be the "best" (i.e. most competitive) first round playoff series in the East. I was a big fan of the Bucks this year, so it's nice to see them in the postseason following a one-year hiatus. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads a promising young squad that underachieved much of the first half, but finally played up to its potential down the stretch. Milwaukee is one of just seven teams in the East to outscore its opponents during the regular season (ironically two of them, Miami & Charlotte, FAILED to make the playoffs). Antetokounmpo, the so-called "Greek Freak," became the first player since LeBron James in 2008-09 (1st stint in Cleveland) to lead his team in all major statistical categories and he did it at age 22.

Toronto finished third in the East, but has the best point differential and did so despite losing Kyle Lowry for most of the second half. They went 18-7 SU w/o Lowry and were severely undervalued much of that time. Now that the All-Star PG has returned, I believe the market is spot on for Game 1. I do find it interesting that Milwaukee actually went 17-10 SU in the 2nd half even though it was outscored, a sharp contrast to the 1st half when they were under .500 despite outscoring opponents. The Bucks were by no means outstanding underdogs (just 18-23 ATS), but the Raptors' 7-17 ATS playoff mark (2-9 in 1st rd games) is worrisome. 

So let's finally look at the total. Both teams ended the regular season by scoring far less than they averaged over the balance of the season. The Bucks averaged just 88.2 points the L5 games, well below their season average of 103.6. Perhaps that's why this total is so astonishingly low. At the same time, they also allowed only 97.4 PPG those L5 contests, significantly fewer than their season average of 103.8. For the record, the Bucks were 4-1 Over after the Break w/ a total of 200 pts or lower. Likewise, Toronto's total PPG average for the year far exceeds the total here and what we saw from them the last five games. At home, the Raptors average 110.9 PPG and it's not as if Milwaukee is some kind of defensive stalwart. In fact, the Bucks rank 19th in defensive efficiency. Both teams went Over more than they did Under in the regular season and that was w/ average O/U lines much higher than this one. This O/U line is also lower than all four regular season matchups. 10* Over Bucks/Raptors

10* Boston (3:05 ET): I had the Bruins as they took Game 1 Wednesday. While they had to come from behind to win 2-1, the same rules still apply here. It is telling that despite getting swept in the regular season by the Senators (0-4!), Boston came in not only favored to take this series, but also Games 1 and 2 here on foreign ice. That's because a quick look inside the numbers reveals that the Bruins are indeed the better team here. Not only did they have a far greater goal differential during the year (+22), Ottawa was the lone playoff team that was outscored in the regular season (-2). Then there is the fact that the B's actually led the league in shot per game differential (+6.4). Throw in their top ranked penalty kill (85.7%) and we have all the makings of a legit playoff darkhorse. Look for the road team to make it two straight here in Ottawa. 

As mentioned above, it was a come from behind effort in Game 1. Ottawa struck first in the second period and actually held Boston w/o a shot in the middle 20 minutes! Thus, the Bruins became the 1st team to win a playoff game while being held w/o a single shot in one period of play since Washington did it back in '94. They scored twice in the third period, the deciding goal coming w/ just 2:33 to go in regulation. You have to think that if they can win under those circumstances, then that's a good sign moving forward. Even if center David Krejci (upper body injury) ends up not playing Saturday. It's hard to envision Boston being held w/o a shot for an entire period again. Again, this team led the league in shot differential during the year, so it is rare to find them outshot like they were Weds (only 27-25). Of course, that also means in the other two periods, they outshot the Sens, 25-15.

Ottawa really doesn't have the profile of a playoff team. They rank a pedestrian 22nd in goals scored and at even strength, they are 27th in shots per game. Being that Boston is the top ranked team in the league on the PK, the Senators are unlikely to get much from the power play either. Goaltender Craig Anderson really carried them for much of the year, but I'm skeptical he can maintain a .926 save percentage. Meanwhile, Tuukka Bask has been on fire between the pipes for Boston w/ a .978 save percentage his L4 appearances (stopped 87 of 89 shots). 10* Boston

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox were able to come in and beat the Twins yday despite scoring only two runs. Therefore, you have to like their chances today even though they'll be facing Ervin Santana. Santana has been the definition of 'lights out' in his two starts thus far, allowing just one run and four hits in 13 IP. His previous start came against these White Sox, opposite the very same pitcher he'll be facing again Saturday. That would be Jose Quintana, who pitched well himself. In this "immediate revenge" situation, I'll side w/ the dog as they're playing better of late and Minnesota's fast start, like a lot of other bad teams, has to be considered somewhat of a mirage.

When Santana and Quintana faced off Sunday, it was a good old fashioned pitchers duel. Santana threw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball while Quintana allowed just two runs and five hits in 6 1/3 IP. Quintana struck out more hitters (7 to 4) while walking fewer, but he made one critical mistake, that being allowing a solo home run in the seventh. A rough Opening Day start for Quintana skews the fact that the southpaw had a career year in 2016, both in terms of ERA and strikeouts. Control will be the key to today's ballgame as no American League team has taken more walks so far than has Minnesota and that's been critical to their surprising success.

The White Sox are in the midst of a pretty severe teardown. But it's hard to lose games when you're not giving up many runs! Since an Opening Day loss in Detroit, they haven't allowed more than four in any game! They've allowed three runs or fewer in six of the last eight games. For a Minnesota team that relies so heavily on its offense, that makes this a bad matchup. They're just 9-14 vs. the Pale Hose since the start of last season. Chicago comes in on a three-game win streak as it won at Cleveland twice earlier in the week. The Twins have now dropped three of four and have scored four runs or less in six of the past seven games. Good price on the underdog here. 8* Chi White Sox

10* Milwaukee (1:10 ET): So much for that fast start by Cincinnati. The Brewers have come to Great American Ballpark and taken the first two games of this four-game set in dominating fashion, winning 5-1 and 10-4. It's crucial to remember that the Reds were projected to be one of the very worst teams in baseball this year w/ the Padres probably the only team that received a bleaker outlook. Not much is expected from Milwaukee either, but so far they've clearly demonstrated that they are superior to their NL Central rival. They enter Saturday riding a four-game win streak as they also swept a quick two-game set in Toronto earlier in the week. Make it five straight! 

It has not been a great start to the season for today's Brew Crew starter, Zach Davies, who comes in w/ a 0-2 record after allowing a total of 11 runs his first two starts. But he had to face Colorado and the Cubs, two of the NL's more formidable offenses. Davies was the pitcher of record the last time the Brew Crew lost, which was 7-4 to the Cubs on Sunday. But there are signs of a turnaround, namely the fact he retired 12 of the final 13 hitters he saw in that outing. Craig Counsell has gone on the record, saying Davies has "elite command" w/ his fastball and I'll take the skipper's word for it. Run suppression has been key for the Brew Crew during this four-game run as they've allowed just eight runs total. The bullpen has been lights out w/ a 0.00 ERA and 0.550 WHIP! 

Reds starter Brandon Finnegan has a 2-0 record, but his WHIP is higher than his ERA and he received a ton of run support his last time out. The run support he got against Pittsburgh cannot always be counted upon and the WHIP being higher than the ERA is indicative of control issues. Sure enough, he walked five hitters (in just two innings!) at Pittsburgh Monday. He was really fortunate there that Pirates starter Tyler Glasnow was even worse and exhibited less control. They started out fine, but Reds relievers were a disaster last year and have already begun to regress. No surprise there as the fast start was a mirage. The team did win it's lone time after giving up 10+ runs this season, but they're just 10-20 in that situation since the start of 2015. 10* Milwaukee

full analysis soon

6* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Wild's dreadful final month of the regular season "bled over" into Game 1 of this best of seven series as they fell Wednesday, 2-1 at home to St. Louis. Despite that loss and earning only 10 out of a possible 32 points in March, the Wild are heavy favorites to bounce back here in Game 2. Yes, there are troubling signs, such as the number of shots on goal allowed (over the course of the year) as well as the lack of offense down the stretch. But while goaltender Devan Dubnyk's slump coincided with the team's late season swoon, I thought he performed admirable in the series opener. The problem was the Wild ran into a red-hot goaltender, Jake Allen, who stopped 51 shots for the Blues. But given that Minnesota outshot St. Louis 2:1 and had a sizable edge on faceoffs, they certainly are capable of getting the job done here. Remember, this team still finished 2nd in the league in goals per game & had the best goal differential in the Western Conference. 

You're likely to hear a lot about "momentum" (I hate that word!) right now as St. Louis is 23-8-2 its L33 games while Minnesota is just 8-11-2 its last 21. For the record, the Wild did win their final four regular season games, though all were against non-playoff teams and three of them came at the expense of the two worst teams in the sport (Avs, Coyotes). Clearly, the Wild need to work on finding the back of the net. But by putting 52 shots on goal in Game 1, I think they're showing they are poised for a breakthrough. In March, the team averaged only 2.5 goals per game as their shooting average dropped precipitously. But again, I point to the season as a whole. There's no denying that the Wild were better than the Blues over the course of the season. Before March, Minnesota was scoring on 11% of its shots and also had the third best power play.

Goaltending, ironically enough, had been an issue for the Blues much of this season. But Allen has changed that in a dramatic way. He posted a .938 save percentage after the All-Star Break. But consider that Dubnyk still finished far higher (top 7) in both save percentage and goals against average for the season. There is no way Allen can match his Game 1 performance here and it should be noted that the Wild finished the regular season w/ a 27-12-2 home record. 6* Minnesota

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): This is a very big game for the Braves. On Friday, they become the last team in MLB to play their home opener. They've opened 2-6 on the road, so they'll be thankful to be back in Atlanta. Especially because this is the official open of a new park in Cobb County. SunTrust park promises to be pretty hitter-friendly as it's a short right field wall (in distance from home plate) and the wall itself is shorter in left. There is also far less foul territory here compared to Turner Field. The Braves did win yday, 5-4 over Miami, and I think this is going to be a big weekend for them. While he's been as hard luck as any pitcher in baseball the L2 seasons, I have no problem whatsoever putting all my eggs in starter Julio Teheran's basket. Look for Atlanta to win its home opener. 

San Diego was almost unanimously projected to be the worst team in either league this season. So it's certainly a surprise to see them open 5-5. They just took two of three from the Rockies at Coors Field. That's after taking two of three from the Giants, at home. But it's only a matter of time before this club falls off, somewhat dramatically. On paper, this is a much worse group than the one that won only 71 games in 2016 as a ton of salary was shed. For two years running, the Padres have been the worst hitting team in baseball. What's really scary is how "fortunate" they were LY to rank 21st in runs scored. That's because they also ranked 30th in team batting average, 30th in OBP and 28th in slugging. There are 30 teams in MLB, in case you have to be reminded. Wednesday marked only the 16th time the pitching staff has produced a shutout in the L3 seasons.

The fact that Teheran has a 10-22 team start record since the start of last season is nothing short of criminal. Last year, he finished w/ a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP, including 2.69 and 0.909 on the road. His TSR this year is 0-2 despite him not allowing a single earned run! He left a scoreless game w/ the Mets on Opening Day after six innings and the team somehow ended up losing 6-0. Then the bullpen could not protect a lead Teheran left them w/ against Pittsburgh on Sunday. It's "high time" for this very talented pitcher to start getting some "W's." He was 2-0 LY vs. San Diego w/ a 2.40 ERA and 16-1 KW rate in 15 IP. He'll be opposed here by Braves' castoff Jhoulys Chacin, who turned in a stunning performance Saturday opposite Madison Bumgarner. But Chacin allowed nine runs (in 3 1/3 IP) his first start and had a 5.40 ERA in five starts w/ Atlanta in 2016. 10* Atlanta

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The reigning AL Champs came into 2017 favored to repeat and staked their claim as the top team in the Junior Circuit by sweeping the Rangers to start the season. But since then, they've dropped five of six - to the D'backs and White Sox. The lone win came in the home opener, 2-1, on Tuesday in extra innings. Now they welcome in a Detroit team that started 6-2 before getting beat up in its own right Thursday, 11-5 by Minnesota. So somebody has to bounce back Friday and my money is on the Tribe. They were 14-4 LY vs. the Tigers and there's just no way that they and specifically the offense stay down for much longer. 

Starter Josh Tomlin gave Cleveland next to nothing last night as he allowed five first inning runs, including a lead off homer. I expect far better tonight from Trevor Bauer, even though his 1st outing of 2017 hardly went well. Though he posted a 7-0 KW rate, Bauer allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings en route to the team losing 11-2 out in Arizona. Admittedly, his career marks against Detroit aren't great. But again, Cleveland dominated Detroit in 2016, outscoring them 106-71 and that's despite a late season 12-0 loss! It would certainly help Bauer if the Indians' lineup would start producing. Last year, they ranked 2nd in the AL in runs scored; so far they are 12th this year. But in an attempt to rectify that situation Lonnie Chisenhall finds his way into the batting order tonight in place of the ineffective Tyler Naquin.

Countering Bauer will be Daniel Norris, one of the four Tigers' pitchers to beat Cleveland last year. Norris was okay in his first start of 2017, allowing just three runs in 6+ innings, but the team lost and he had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2). Tigers' fans will want to point to the fact that their club has yet to drop B2B games. But there's a first time for everything and this weekend they're facing an opponent that simply has more talent. Something else worth mentioning is that Detroit's bullpen has generally been awful so far, posting a 7.06 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. 8* Cleveland

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): For me, this one is all about the pitching matchup and expected regression to the mean from last year. The Rays' Chris Archer was actually the biggest money-burner in baseball last season w/ a 10-23 TSR resulting in a loss of 15.6 units. But through two starts this year, he's looked quite good. I took him on Opening Day when he took down the Yankees, allowing just two runs over seven innings. He was actually even better last week vs. Toronto, whom he held to two runs (on only five hits) over 7 2/3 IP, even though he did not factor into the decision (Rays won 3-2). Meanwhile, Boston's Rick Porcello is coming off a stunning 22-win 2016 that netted him +13.4 units (#6 overall) and the American League Cy Young. Porcello has a 2-0 TSR this year, but has done so in spite of a 4.38 ERA and 1.541 WHIP. It's about time for his record to regress.

Tampa Bay's first road series of the season did not go well as they were swept by the Yankees to start the week. Boston is 4-1 in Fenway so far, including a come from behind effort yday afternoon (won 4-3) that I was fortunate enough to be on. But the Rays were in position to win each of the L2 days. Wednesday they led the Yanks 3-0 heading into the home half of the fifth while yday it was just two bad pitches, both resulting in Aaron Hicks' home runs, that doomed them. The bullpen posted an ugly 12.00 ERA and 2.67 WHIP in the Yankees series, but we shouldn't have to rely on them much here w/ Archer getting the baseball first. Last year's record was nowhere near indicative of his skill set and an improved pitching motion has led to 13 strikeouts in his first two starts of 2017.

There is just no way that Porcello is going to be able to duplicate his 2016. The Red Sox have won 19 of his last 22 starts, but that's due to start trending the other way. He was 5-0 in six starts vs. TB last year, but I'll point to the fact that he was shaky his last time on the mound, giving up four runs and 11 hits at Detroit on Sunday, a game where he did not factor into the decision. I readily admit that Archer has had his fair share of troubles against Boston in the past, going 1-11 w/ a 5.38 ERA. But Boston's offense has been nowhere near as fearsome thus far compared to last year. As alluded to earlier in the analysis, the Red Sox were a bit fortunate to win yday afternoon as they had to rally back from a 3-1 deficit against the Pirates (scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth). Not since opening 2-0 have the Sox won B2B games. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Under Predators/Blackhawks (8:05 ET): The more things change, the more they stay the same. Chicago is again the favorite in the Western Conference, despite not taking over the top spot until a late season surge. They open with division rival Nashville and I'm calling for a low scoring Game 1. None of the five playoff games yday went Over the total (4 Unders, 1 push), mind you. It's tough not to like the Blackhawks' chances here as they swept the regular season series from the Preds (4-0) and scored five goals in three of the wins. Nashville has also won only once in its last 10 visits to the Madhouse on Madison. But Chicago certainly didn't end its regular season strong (four straight losses) and it may be a struggle to get the puck past Pekka Rinne. Take the Under. 

On April 6th, the Predators blasted Dallas 7-3. They also beat San Jose 7-2 on March 25th. But other than those two outliers, the team has not scored more than three goals in its last 12 games. The Dallas game is the lone Over in the last eight games. Five times in the last seven games, they've been held to exactly one goal. That's obviously not a good sign heading into the postseason. Overall, the team ranked outside the top 10 in goals per game during the regular season. Two key forwards - Colin Wilson and Calle Jarnkrok - missed Wednesday's practice and are listed as questionable for tonight.

However, the Preds' saving grace could be one of the league's best blue lines. Rinne's playoff numbers may be disappointing, but he posted a .927 even strength save percentage during the regular season. He comes in w/ a .948 save percentage his L4 starts, all of those staying Under the total. His counterpart, Corey Crawford, can equally be counted upon. His last four starts have seen three Unders and one push. The Blackhawks' one Achilles' heel (penalty killing) should not be a significant factor in this series. 8* Under Predators/Blackhawks

10* Under Maple Leafs/Capitals (7:05 ET): It cannot be understated how disastrous it was for Toronto to lose their final regular season game. The 3-2 setback against Columbus, which took place at home, means that instead of drawing Ottawa (arguably the worst team in the entire playoff field), they get the best. Washington has won the President's Trophy (most points in the league) for a second year in a row and as you can tell from the odds, comes in as a prohibitive favorite to win this series. At this price, I don't think there's much value on the Caps, but I certainly like the Under in Game 1. While a ton of focus will be paid on the fact both of these teams rank in the top five in scoring, let us not discount that the Caps also gave up the fewest goals in the league during the regular season. None of the five playoff games yday went Over. Take the Under.

Clearly, the driving force behind Washington allowing the fewest number of goals in the league is netminder Braden Holtby. The Vezina candidate finished #2 in the league in goals against average and third in save percentage. He was also tied w/ Edmonton's Cam Talbot for the most wins (42) and had the most shutouts (9). It also helps that Holtby doesn't face a ton of shots. Washington allows the fourth fewest number of shots per game (27.6), which is always key. Their opponent here happens to rank 28th in the league in even strength shot attempts per 60 minutes. Unlike the Caps, Toronto's scoring has been artificially inflated by their power play, something they probably can't count on in this series. None of Washington's final five regular season contests saw more than five total goals scored.

  To stay in this game and series, the Maple Leafs will have to heavily rely on Frederik Andersen, who almost had to miss this game due to a collision over the weekend. Andersen went 33-16-4 w/ a 2.67 GAA in the reg season, so the Leafs are definitely a better team w/ him between the pipes. I'm also not totally discounting their chances because they should have finished w/ more points, but went an unlucky 1-8 in shootouts. These teams did play three relatively high scoring affairs in the regular season, including a 6-5 game here in the Nation's Capital. But this is playoff time and as we saw last night, goals can be few and far between. 10* Under Maple Leafs/Capitals

10* Toronto (7:07 ET): Needless to say, it has NOT been the start to the season that the Blue Jays had hoped for. They're 1-7 (worst record in baseball) and have lost five in a row. They come in off B2B embarrassing home losses to Milwaukee. So why endorse them? Well, regression to the mean is certainly likely. Especially, for starter Francisco Liriano, whose ERA and WHIP can ONLY go down following a disastrous first outing where he allowed five runs while getting only one out. Fortunately here, he'll be opposed by Kevin Gausman, who hasn't exactly had a stellar start to 201 either. While they won in Boston yday, I remain skeptical of the Orioles this season. 

Though off to the worst start in franchise history, it's not as if Toronto is being dominated. Four of their losses have been by one run and all but one by three runs or fewer. They opened the year by dropping a pair of games at Camden Yards, 3-2 and 3-1. So revenge is in the air tonight at Rogers Centre. Prior to yday, the Baltimore lineup had been struggling every bit as much as Toronto's. They hit four homers yday, which seems like an unsustainable blueprint. Entering yday's game, they had just five home runs in the first six games and were batting a collective .215. On the Toronto side, I do see an offensive surge on the horizon. There's too much talent in this lineup for them to be down for so long.

The Orioles have won both of Gausman's starts thus far, but it was no thanks to him. In 10 IP, he's allowed six runs and 13 hits while also walking seven. That works out to a 5.40 ERA and 2.000 WHIP. He's been fortunate in that the bullpen hasn't given up a single run in either of his two starts. He threw only 12 first-pitch strikes against 24 hitters against the Yankees on Saturday and even committed a balk. As bad as Liriano was in his first start, it was the shortest of his career, and he's likely to bounce back. 10* Toronto

8* Boston (2:05 ET): Both of these teams are licking their wounds right now after their last series. The Red Sox had to settle for a split w/ Baltimore after losing 12-5 yday, a game in which knuckleballer Steven Wright simply didn't "have it." However, what happened to the Pirates (at home!) at the hands of Cincinnati was far worse. The Bucs were actually swept by the Reds to start the week, getting outscored 22-5 in the process. With runners in scoring position, Pirate hitters went 0 for 23 in the series. Given those results, I can't imagine things going too well for them at Fenway Park today in what is a make up for a rainout last Thursday. Boston won the other two games of that series and today, I'll call for them to make it a "sweep" over their NL visitors.

It's the same pitching matchup here as was originally scheduled for last Thursday. For Boston, Eduardo Rodriguez ended up facing Detroit last Saturday and did not fare well, giving up four runs in five innings. He allowed two home runs as well. But with the Pirates bats beyond anemic at this point, Rodriguez should be in line for a nice bounce back outing. Pittsburgh is 0-3 already this season against left-handed starters. The Bucs will counter w/ Chad Kuhl, who put a TON of runners on base Saturday against Atlanta thanks to issuing six walks in five innings. Somehow, Pittsburgh still ended up winning that game, 6-4, but clearly that's not a recipe for success. 

Looking for evidence that the Red Sox will bounce back? Well, look no further than a 17-9 record the L3 seasons after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Also, after the flu ravaged the clubhouse, the team is now starting to get healthier. Rodriguez will be leaned upon heavily here due to the high bullpen usage yday, but Robbie Ross Jr (one of several players affected by the flu) may return to help out if need be. Yesterday was the Sox first loss at Fenway. The offense still pounded out 26 hits in the two games vs. Orioles pitching. Including the two wins over Pittsburgh last week, Boston is now 29-13 vs. the National League this L3 seasons. 8* Boston

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for the Mariners and the division rival Astros have played a large role in that. This will already be the seventh head to head meeting of 2017 and so far Houston has gone 4-2. That includes a 7-5 win here at Safeco Field last night. It was a game Seattle actually led though, 3-2 going into the sixth inning. But that's when the wheels came off. With two outs in that frame, two unlucky bounces went against the M's. The first was an infield hit that loaded the bases. The next was a line drive off the glove of RF Mitch Haniger that cleared them. The Astros ended up setting a season-high in both runs and hits. That's interesting because George Springer has four leadoff home runs in nine games! I'll call for Springer and the Astros not to get the lucky bounces tonight and to cool off. 

Seattle did take Monday's series opener by a score of 6-0, for the record. But they are just 2-7 overall now, including a horrible loss on Sunday where they blew a six-run lead in the ninth to the Angels. That's one of three one-run losses so far, not to mention there was last night and a 13-inning loss back in Houston. Despite losing four of the six head to head matchups w/ Houston, the M's have played them relatively even. In fact, the two teams have scored an identical number of runs against one another in the six games (19). Last night marked the first time that the Astros were able to score more than three times in nine innings against Mariners pitching.

Starting tonight for the home side will be veteran Yovani Gallardo. His 1st start of '17 did not go that well. He allowed three runs in five innings as the team fell 5-1 to the Angels. Allowing 10 baserunners isn't exactly ideal, but Gallardo should pitch better here. I say that because he has a 15-5 career record vs. Houston w/ a 3.15 ERA. Starting opposite him will be Michael Fiers, who was a hard luck loser to Kansas City in his first start. But like Gallardo, Fiers did give up a home run in his first start. He also had control issues w/ three walks. I look for Seattle's offense to come alive here.  10* Seattle

10* Under T'wolves/Rockets (8:05 ET): One of these teams is wrapping up its season tonight while the other is getting ready for a 1st round playoff series vs. the Thunder. Minnesota is the former and while their record is a lousy 31-50 (worse than Sacramento!), they're a much better team than that and should make the playoffs next year. They've only been outscored by roughly one point per game and have the most blown double-digit leads in the league. Last night saw them lose a tough one at home to Oklahoma City, 100-98, a game in which they were actually four-point favorites (no Westbrook for OKC). That offensive performance is hardly inspiring for tonight's finale and I'll again remind you that in terms of makes, this is the worst three-point shooting team in the league. Take the Under.

Houston has no issues offensively as they'll finish second in efficiency, behind only Golden State. That said, they're off a rare sub-100 pt effort Monday as they were blown out in LA by the Clippers. Things should improve here against the 26th ranked team in defensive efficiency, but to what degree? HC Mike D'Antoni has been resting players in preparation for the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised if this is a short night for MVP candidate James Harden as well. The team is 7-3 Under this season when coming off a double digit loss. After giving up a total of 253 total pts the last two games, I do expect to see some improvement on the defensive end, however. Minnesota, whose two young superstars (Wiggins and Towns) rank near the top of the NBA in minutes played, might very well be "gassed" by this point, especially w/ this being the second game of a back to back. 

While "old hat" for Houston, this is a high O/U line by T'wolves' standards. They are 6-2 Under this season when the total is 220 points or higher. Yes, the last time these teams met, they combined for 272 points and that was in regulation. That was each team's season high in points scored. But I seriously doubt we'll see a repeat of those performances as the Rockets were 22 of 58 from three point range and the T'wolves shot 52% overall from the floor. Also, the teams combined for 70 free throws that night. The Rockets have actually seen six of their last eight games stay Under the total, a sign that the oddsmakers have begun posting totals that are too high. 10* Under T'wolves/Rockets

8* Over Hawks/Pacers (8:05 ET): It all sets up pretty well for the Pacers to make the playoffs and take on LeBron James and the defending NBA Champion Cavailers in the opening round. By virtue of a win last night, the Hawks have nothing to play for in tonight's regular season finale as they are locked into the #5 seed and will take on Washington in the opening round. Thus, we've seen a rather sizable jump in the line for this game. I'm not interested in laying that many points w/ Indiana, but I do believe there's plenty of value w/ the O/U line, which seems far too low. The Pacers have averaged 117.8 points over their last five contests and are a far more prolific team at home. I highly doubt we'll see anything close to Atlanta's defensive performance from last night when they held a Kemba Walker-less Charlotte team to just 76 points.

No matter who ends up making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, I view the Hawks as the weakest team in the field. They've actually been outscored over the course of the season. Last night helped that scoring differential a lot, but tonight likely adversely affects it. Key players will likely be rested in preparation for the playoffs, so the offense could take a hit. Yet, there will be a hit at the defensive end as well. With zero to play for, I can't see the Hawks playing lockdown defense tonight. Indiana will absolutely shoot better than the ugly 33% we saw from the Hornets last night. 

In fact, the last two games have seen the Pacers shoot 59.3% and 57.6% respectively. Admittedly, that was against Orlando and Philadelphia. But the "skeleton crew" they'll be facing here may not offer much more resistance. Also, this is a home game and Indiana is 28-12 SU here, averaging 107 PPG. Paul George has topped 20 pts in 11 consecutive games, overall. Defensively, I'd like to point out that the team just gave up a combined 223 points the L2 games, to two of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Under may have cashed in both prior head to head meetings this season, but this is the lowest O/U line of the three games. Thus, there's some value in taking the Over as the game could very well end up as a blowout and feature little in the way of defense late. 8* Over Hawks/Pacers

10* Boston (7:05 ET): The Bruins went 0-4 against the Senators in the regular season and thus do not have the home ice advantage in this first round playoff series. Yet, they remain the favorites, not only to win Game 1, but the series as well. On the surface, that might sound strange, but go "inside the numbers" and you'll find that Boston is most certainly the better team here. They finished w/ a superior goal differential compared to Ottawa (+22 to -2) and one key number that makes the B's a playoff darkhorse, not just here but "beyond" is they led the entire league in shot differential. They were +6.4 in that department during the regular season as they were second in shots for and second in shots against. Consider there were only seven teams in the entire league to have a shot differential greater than +1.0! Ottawa is the lone playoff team that was outscored during the regular season.

Two of the Sens four wins over the Bruins during the regular season came by one goal margins and none were by greater than a two goal margin. The most recent was a 2-1 win in Beantown last week, which allowed Ottawa to gain the home ice edge for this series. Somewhat surprisingly, the Senators outshot the Bruins in both home games this year. Three of the four meetings took place after March 1st, so that likely has the Sens' confidence high coming into Game 1. But, I again lean on the season as a whole, not just the head to head matchups. The numbers all indicate Boston was the better team in the regular season, which is why they are favored on the money line here.

It reallly was surprising to me that Ottawa was even able to make the playoffs. They rank a pedestrian 22nd in goals scored and at even strength, they are 27th in shots allowed. Craig Anderson's play between the pipes really carried them, but I'm skeptical that he can maintain his .926 save percentage from the reg season. Certainly, I anticipate a drop from the .943 save percentage he posted in his L4 starts. Bruins goaltender Tuukka Rask may have posted the lowest even strength save percentage of his career (.919), but he's "been here before" and comes in even hotter than Anderson w/ a .966 save percentage his L4 appearances (stopped 85 of 88 shots). Other than Boston, Ottawa was just 10-20 vs. teams with a winning record this year. The Bruins were a strong road team this year (21-14-6) while the Sens were a bit shaky here at home (22-11-8). 10* Boston

8* Minnesota Run Line (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Twins +1.5. A 100+ loss team a year ago, the Twins opened 2017 by winning five of their first six games. They lost yday by a 2-1 margin, which obviously would have been a winner via the RL. By far, the most surprising Minnesota-related thing this season has been the pitching staff. With the exception of one game, they've allowed three runs or less. In fact, they are currently #1 in MLB in runs allowed w/ only 15. This is a massive turnaround considering LY they were last in the league on the runs allowed side of the ledger. Not sure how long the pitching prowess lasts, but today the club will do no worse than a one-run loss in the Motor City. 

The Tigers are also now 5-2 having won four of five at home. But three of those victories have come by a one-run margin. Yesterday saw starter Matthew Boyd take a no-hitter into the sixth inning. However, that almost wasn't enough as the Tigers offense managed only four hits for the game themselves (Twins finished w/ five). The home team's only runs scored both came on a James McCann home run in the fifth. Starting here will be Michael Fulmer, who I expect to regress in 2017 despite a strong first showing. Fulmer threw six scoreless innings of four hit ball last week vs. Boston, but did not factor into the decision due to the bullpen blowing a four-run lead. Last year's AL Rookie of the Year, Fulmer now has a 9-0 TSR in his career when he does NOT factor into the decision.

Starting this afternoon for Minnesota will be Kyle Gibson. He too got a no-decision in his 1st start of 2017, but unlike Fulmer, did not pitch that well. He gave up three runs in just five innings of work. That said, the first four innings were scoreless. The Tigers are a familiar opponent for him as this will be the 11th time he's faced them. Detroit has homered in every game this season, but other than that hasn't done much hitting. Only twice have they finished a game w/ more than six hits. To me, Fulmer was fortunate to have his WL record last year and is due to drop some games, starting here. 8* Minnesota Run Line (+1.5)

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates' confounding struggles w/ the Reds continued yday w/ an ugly 7-1 loss here at PNC Park. They now have a losing record vs. Cincy the L3 seasons and are just 10-10 against them since the start of last season despite the Reds having the worst record in the Senior Circuit during that time. The issue Monday was a complete lack of control from starter Tyler Glasnow, who walked five (including four straight in the 1st inning!) and barely threw 50% of his pitches for strikes. Cincinnati starter Brandon Finnegan wasn't very good either, but his ineffectiveness was offset by a shocking performance by the bullpen, which didn't allow a single baserunner! That's a huge departure from LY when the Reds' bullpen was the worst in baseball. 

Cincy is now 5-2, but I remain skeptical of them and the bullpen. In the L6 games, they've posted three shutouts and gave up only the one run yday. But I don't think that's sustainable. Certainly not w/ tonight's starter Rookie Davis on the bump. The appropriately named pitcher (he's a rookie!) was hit hard in his '17 debut, giving up four runs and five hits in just three innings of work. Somehow the Reds were able to come back and win that game, 7-4, but the opponent was the Phillies and it was at home. That game not only saw another shocking performance by the bullpen, but one of its members, Michael Lorenzen, became the 1st pitcher in eight years to hit a pinch-hit HR. Again, I do not think the blueprint is sustainable for a Reds team that lost 94 games a year ago. 

Pittsburgh will counter tonight w/ the highly touted Jameson Tallion. The problems w/ Glasnow yday should not be present again here. Tallion dominated the Red Sox in his 1st start of '17 by throwing seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball. That's quite the impressive performance there. Tallion has worked against the Reds twice before and has given up just 4 ER in 11 IP. Last night marked the Bucs' first home loss of the season and after being embarrassed I feel it's only logical that they respond and take the middle game of this three-game set. The Reds have lost over 100 road games since the start of 2015. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Charlotte (7:35 ET): Atlanta is off a pair of stunning victories over Cleveland, the second of which saw them become just the third team in NBA history to rally back from a deficit of 26 points or more in the fourth quarter. Those two wins have them in the playoffs, though their seeding remains totally up for grabs. They could finish anywhere from fifth to seventh depending on how these last two games go. Tomorrow night, they'll wrap their regular season up against Indiana, a national TV game that will play a significant role in who finishes were (the Pacers are one of the teams fighting w/ the Hawks for playoff position). But up first, the Hawks must host Charlotte and this looks like a classic overlay due to the teams' respective lots in life. Take the points. 

I'm telling you right now. Next year, I will be subbing Charlotte in for Atlanta as a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. Despite being only 36-45, which is 6.5 games back of the Hawks, the Hornets have actually outscored their opponents over the course of the season and have a positive net efficiency rating. Atlanta can claim neither of those two distinctions. In fact, the Hawks are ninth in the Eastern Conference in point differential. Charlotte lost last night in Milwaukee, 89-79 as 6.5-point dogs, and will again be w/o leading scorer Kemba Walker here. That, along w/ Atlanta trying to lock down the 5-seed, has conspired to make this line far higher than it should. Teams are often significantly undervalued in the second game of a back to back. 

Now, the Hornets are just 4-22 SU as underdogs this year. But the real reason they won't be making the playoffs is an 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less. They are also 0-6 SU in overtime games. Another close loss here would do us just fine and I should note that Charlotte is 3-0 SU/ATS head to head vs. Atlanta this season.That includes one of those four SU wins as a dog, which took place here in Atlanta back on December 17th. As discouraging as last night's offensive effort was, Charlotte is definitely undervalued in this spot. Atlanta, meanwhile, is just 3-8 ATS after scoring 115+ points the previous game. They were extremely lucky to beat Cleveland both times over the weekend. 8* Charlotte

10* Boston (7:10 ET): Baltimore became the last team in MLB to lose a game when they fell Sunday, 7-3, to the Yankees. Buck Showalter continues to defy the skeptics in the analytics community by getting the Orioles to overachieve, seemingly year after year. But I don't like the O's chances here at Fenway Park on Tuesday. Granted, the host Red Sox had to play yday and lost for the third time in four games to the Tigers. But they won both home games (Pittsburgh) so far and you have to believe the offense is going to break out sooner, rather than later. 

Dylan Bundy was shockingly good in his first start of the year for Baltimore. Pitching last Wedneday vs. Toronto, he allowed just one run and four hits across seven innings. He also struck out eight and didn't walk anybody. But Bundy has not fared well in the past against Boston as his ERA is 6.53 in seven games. Sure, the lack of availablity of Zach Britton and Brad Brach is what cost the O's in their first loss (Darren O'Day gave up four runs in the ninth Sunday), but it should be pointed out that the club has yet to play a single road game. Over the L2 seasons, they are just 71-92 away from Camden Yards. 

Boston turns to Drew Pomeranz, who will be making his first start of '17. He had been bothered by an elbow issue and, truth be told, didn't have a very effective Spring. But I can see him bouncing back here against a Baltimore lineup that has been held to just three runs in three of its five games. Like I said earlier, it's also just a matter of time before the vaunted Red Sox offense gets going. The lineup has been ravaged by the flu, but is now getting healthier and Xander Bogaerts is expected back in the lineup tonight. This is a cheap price on the Red Sox at home and I'll jump on it. 10* Boston

8* Houston (10:35 ET): The Clippers find themselves in the midst of a fierce battle for home court advantage (w/ the Jazz) in the 1st round of the playoffs while the Rockets already know who they'll be taking on next week (Oklahoma City). That being said, LA does not deserve to be favored by this much against a superior team, even here at Staples Center where they have lost only seven times all year as a favorite. They are just .500 at the betting window in home games. I suspect the reason for this inflated number is that Houston finds itself playing in the second game of a back to back. They won last night in Sacramento, 135-128, but failed to cover as nine-point favorites. It was their seventh straight game not covering. But fortunately, they are 13-2 SU, 10-4-1 ATS in the second game of a back to back. Take the points here.

The Rockets put up 75 points in the first half last night, the 10th such time they've tallied 70+ before halftime this season. Granted, it was "only the Kings," but be aware that non-cover was a byproduct of being "backdoored" in the fourth quarter (outscored 39-28). James Harden, who is the thick of the MVP race, answered Russell Westbrook w/ his own triple double last night (35-11-15). To me, Houston is clearly the third best team in basketball. It is rare to find them getting points, but when they do - take 'em. Their record as an underdog this season is 9-3 ATS (9-1-1 on the road). Earlier I mentioned the Rockets' excellent record when playing w/o rest. I've often harped upon the fact that unrested teams are among the most undervalued in the sport, especially when on the road. Incredibly, the Rockets are outscoring opponents by over 10 PPG in the second game of a B2B and that includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark if both were on the road. 

The Clippers have taken advantage of a somewhat fortuitous schedule of late in compiling a five-game win streak. That includes games against the Suns, Lakers and Mavs. They did post an impressive 98-87 victory at San Antonio (who was NOT resting starters) on Saturday. I suspect that result also has a heavy influence in this number being inflated. The Clips' defense has been much better of late, but this is the second most efficient offense in the game they'll be facing tonight. It's a national TV affair and w/ Harden making his case for MVP, Houston will be motivated. To me, this line should be closer to a pick 'em. 8* Houston

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): I just read how the Pirates' Clint Hurdle is currently the odds on favorite to the first manager fired this season. Why would that be? I expect the Bucs to show improvement here in 2017 and they just swept the Braves over the weekend here at PNC Park. Perhaps it's the team's peculiar struggles against Cincinnati that has chipped away at Hurdle's support? The Bucs were just 10-9 head to head against the Reds last season and actually have a losing record against them the L2 seasons. Cincy has obviously been one of the worst teams in baseball during this time, so the fact Pittsburgh hasn't been able to take advantage of that is certainly disappointing. But I believe they will here in what should be a relatively easy game and series. 

Now the Reds did win yday, 8-0 in St. Louis, and have started 4-2. They took two of three from both the Phillies and Cardinals and have shockingly delivered a trifecta of shutouts over the L5 games. This from the team that gave up - by far - the most runs in the entire National League a season ago. Coming into 2017, they were thought to be in a "dogfight" w/ the Padres to see who would finish with the worst record in the Senior Circuit. Pitching tonight will be the author of one of those three shutouts, Brandon Finnegan, whose was arguably the most impressive. He threw seven innings of one-hit ball against the Phillies last Wednesday, finishing w/ 9 K's. However, I would not expect that kind of success from him on a regular basis. When he faced Pittsburgh last September, he lasted only 2 1/3 innings and gave up five runs. 

The Bucs counter here w/ Tyler Glasnow, who will be making his season debut. It's not as if the Reds hit well last week in Philadelphia (.215 team BA), so I look for a quality start from Glasnow. He should also get ample support from an offense that scored five or more runs in all three games vs. Atlanta. Also, let's not forget just how bad Cincinnati's bullpen was last year. It's only a matter of time before that group starts melting down again. I think that all things considered, this is a pretty cheap price to go against a team that lost 94 games a year ago, especially on the road. 10* Pittsburgh

8* San Francisco (4:35 ET): Finding these teams at opposite ends of the NL West spectrum certainly is no surprise, but the respective placements certainly aren't what was expected. Arizona, coming off a terrible 93-loss season in which it was outscored by 138 runs, has opened 6-1. Meanwhile, perennial pennant contenders San Francisco find themselves at 2-5 and in last place. These disparate record of course include the D'backs taking three of four last week at Chase Field. They got to stay home over the weekend where the shockingly swept Cleveland. The Giants, who have yet to play a home game, avoided what would have been an embarrassing sweep w/ a 5-3 win in San Diego Sunday. I now look for them to find sustained success as the scene shifts to their pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park.

This afternoon's pitching matchup of Taijuan Walker vs. Matt Moore is a rematch from last Wednesday's 8-6 win by Arizona. Moore was hit hard, allowing eight hits in 5 1/3 IP, five of them doubles. But three of the six runs allowed were of the unearned variety. Walker didn't exactly pitch well either for the D'backs as he gave up four runs on seven hits. Of the two, I believe Moore is the more likely to improve here. He was basically undone by one bad inning last week and remember this is a more pitcher friendly park. Moore improved both his ERA and strikeout numbers after coming over from Tampa Bay last year. He set career bests in starts & innings pitched in 2016. As for Walker, he allowed runs in three of his six innings of work last week and struggled to put up decent numbers when he was w/ Seattle, another team that plays in a pitcher friendly park. 

The Giants offense has been somewhat of a disaster thus far, particularly their outfielders. The LF position entered yday's game at 0 for 22 w/ 11 K's. That's why Melvin Upton, Jr was signed. It can't get any worse, so expect improved production there. Also, the bullpen cost the team three games in the first week. Two of those were against the D'backs, both games seeing them blow three run leads. So don't be too fooled about Arizona taking three of those four games. This is their best start in franchise history, so expect them to fall off very shortly. Of the two, the Giants have been much better in day games over the L3 seasons. 8* San Francisco

10* Under T'wolves/Lakers (9:35 ET): Neither of these teams are headed for the postseason, but the respective future outlooks are much different. Minnesota is a team I'd buy stock in - right now. Sure, a 31-48 SU record looks wholly unimpressive, especially when you consider they're tied w/ a Sacramento team that essentially gave up at the trade deadline. But, a look inside the numbers reveals the vast potential that the T'wolves have. Thursday's 105-98 setback in Portland marked the 21st time this year the team has lost a game in which it held a double digit lead! They've only been outscored by a margin of 1.1 points per game over the course of the season. So, expect a big jump in the standings next year. As for the Lakers, who have inexplicably won three straight (allowed < 100 pts in B2B games!), I wouldn't trust Magic Johnson w/ your money.

This will be the third matchup between these teams in the last 16 days. The previous two both went Over the total as have the last five overall. All five of those games have seen remarkably good shooting from both sides. Considering neither is exactly stout defensively (Lakers are 29th in efficiency), maybe that shouldn't come as a shock. But the performance we saw from the Lakers the last time they hosted Minnesota (14 of 23 from three-point range) isn't going to be repeated any time soon. Sure enough, they dropped to 9 of 27 in a 119-104 loss in Minnesota the following week. Speaking of three-point range, the T'wolves are among the least prolific teams in the league in that department. They, in fact, average the fewest number of makes per game (7.4).

I cashed the Under in Minnesota's aforementioned loss to Portland Thursday. It was an easy double digit winner. But Friday's loss to Utah wound up being a pretty wild game. They lost that one 120-113 as they allowed the Jazz to shoot 60% from the field. Just by the law of averages, the defense will be better tonight. Right after the All-Star Break, this team saw a rash of Unders cash (six straight), so it was only natural for the Over to make a "rally" over the last month. As mentioned earlier, the Lakers have actually held B2B opponents under 100 pts. The final score from the last home game vs. Minnesota is misleading as it was an overtime game. I like the Under here. 10* Under T'wolves/Lakers

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Zero is on the line here as neither team will be going to the playoffs. But I think the home ice advantage will be enough to propel Philadelphia to one final win this year. There was a time when the Flyers threatened to make it a five-team race in the loaded Metro. But I was never a believer as the goal differential was never good. Aside from that early season 10-game win streak, this has been a below average team most of the way. But that being said, home ice has provided the proverbial advantage. The team has gone 25-11-4 this season in the City of Brotherly Love, so w/ Carolina on a five-game losing streak, this shapes up as an easy play.

Adding to Carolina's woes is the fact they lost in a shootout last night, at home, to St. Louis. After being shut out in two of its previous games, the Hurricanes actually managed to score four times Saturday, but alas it was not enough. They gave up a ton of shots (39), which is somewhat uncharacteristic, so all motivation may be lost at this point. Eddie Lack is likely to be the one between the pipes here and that's not a good thing considering an .885 save percentage away from home. This will be the eighth consecutive year that the 'Canes miss the playoffs, which is the longest active streak in the league.

Philly won last night, beating Columbus here at home. While the Blue Jackets are struggling, that's still a quality win over a playoff team. They did have the edge in rest w/ three full days off prior to last night, but as mentioned before, this has been a good home team regardless. Carolina has won only one of its previous six visits here. That includes a 4-3 win back on March 19th. The last time the Flyers lost a home game was March 13th and since then they've outscored their visitors 24-9. Anthony Stolarz, who is the team's best option in goal moving forward, will be starter tonight. He owns a .932 save percentage in six starts so far. Overall, the Flyers have gone 5-1-1 their last seven games and haven't been beaten by more than one goal since March 16th in New Jersey. 8* Philadelphia

10* Under Thunder/Nuggets (5:05 ET): Oklahoma City is off an absolutely dreadful performance, one where they were blown out by a Phoenix team that came in on a 13-game losing streak. I'm proud to report I took the Suns in that one (who needed that +8?) and while I stated in my analysis that OKC had little to play for (they're basically locked into a 1st round matchup w/ Houston), you still would have expected a better performance than that. Of course, the most notable item from said defeat was that Russell Westbrook clinched averaging a triple double for the entire season. He's the only player besides Oscar Robertson to acheive that impressive feat and would need one more triple double to break "The Big O's" single-season record w/ 42. Though one would expect Westbrook and the entire Thunder team to shoot better than they did Friday, I still believe Under is the way to go here.

The thing w/ Westbrook's individual accolades is that the team's offensive efficiency has fallen off somewhat dramatically. I've been harping on this throughout the year. Last year w/ Kevin Durant, the Thunder finished #2 in the league in offensive efficiency. This year, they've dipped all the way down to 16th! Down the stretch, Westbrook has not shot the ball well at all as his pursuit of the triple double record seems to have superseeded having an efficient offense. He's barely shooting 40% from the floor in April and had his worst shooting game of the season against Phoenix, including an odious 2 for 13 first half. He finished the game just 6 of 25 overall and 2 of 12 from three-point range.

Let's talk about Denver some, shall we? They've played well down the stretch, yet the odds for making the playoffs are not in their favor. They trail Portland by 1.5 games w/ three to play. They have been the top Over team in the league this year due to the combination of having the fourth most efficient offense and 30th (last!) ranked defense. The Over has hit in both previous meetings vs. OKC this year (five straight overall!), but this O/U line is the highest yet. Defensively, they should benefit from the fact that the Thunder's scoring average dips to 103.7 PPG on the road. Meanwhile, I do not see the Nuggets' recent level of scoring - both in terms of points scored and allowed - being sustained. Add up their total PPG average for the year and it's below this O/U line. The same certainly holds true for OKC. 10* Under Thunder/Nuggets

8* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): Colorado has taken the first two of this three game set, so that begats the question: is this team for real? Some (not me) feel this can be somewhat of a darkhorse in the National League this season. They've opened 5-1 and what's surprising is that their last three wins have all come w/o much offense. The lineup has never been a question w/ this team, but the pitching has. Shockingly, they've limited the Dodgers to just three runs so far here at Coors Field, but I believe that's about to change. Sunday's starter Tyler Anderson was a very fortunate winner in his first start as he gave up five runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 IP last Tuesday in Milwaukee. Give me Kenta Maeda and the Dodgers in this one. 

Anderson is a good ground-ball pitcher and has a 1.83 career ERA vs. the Dodgers. But it's still a limited sample size w/ him and he certainly did not look good in his first start of 2017. It's also promising that the Dodgers have averaged a healthy 8.3 runs in three days games so far. Following a loss, they remain 85-64 the L3 seasons, so it was surprising to see them fall yday, especially w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound. The Rockies became the first team to EVER hit B2B home runs off the Dodgers' ace and that proved to be the difference in the game. But lost in the excitement of the Rockies' pitching prowess is the fact they have scored only nine runs total the previous four games. They had scored just five in three games prior to yday's 4-2 win. 

Maeda was the only Dodgers starter to drop a game in the last series, but that was hardly all his fault as the offense was shut out. Maeda has pitched well in the past vs. Colorado (1.93 ERA in four starts) and while Coors Field is hardly a "friendly" environment, it's not as if Dodger pitching has struggled so far here (aside from Kershaw allowing the B2B HR's). The Dodgers' bullpen has also been sharp so far, allowing only two runs in 18+ IP. The Rockies' on base percentage thus far is only .318.  I'll call for LA to avoid the sweep here. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Texas (3:05 ET): Like many in the analytics community, I earmarked the Rangers as a pretty clear "regression" team for 2017. After all, last year they somehow won 95 games despite outscoring their opponents by a mere EIGHT runs! I played against them in the Cleveland series, which saw them get swept at home. Friday brought the first win of the season, 10-5 over Oakland, but then yday the reigning AL West Champs suffered a somewhat shocking 6-1 loss to the A's despite the presence of Yu Darvish on the mound. Darvish was outdueled by Kendall Graveman, who took a no-hit bit into the seventh. I expect more offense today, particular from the home side, who I believe will win the series. Oakland has both struggled against lefties and in day games the previous two seasons.

When I played against the Rangers in that first series w/ Cleveland, the pitcher I targeted was Martin Perez. He actually pitched relatively well though, only allowing three runs over six innings. His career numbers against Oakland (5.16 ERA) may not be sharp, but the last time he faced them (last August), he held them to just two runs and five hits in seven innings of work. The A's have surprised me by scoring 16 runs total the L3 games, but I don't envision seeing that kind of offensive production from them over the course of the season. The top of the their order remains a major question mark as original leadoff man Rajai Davis has been hideous so far (.167) and his replacement, Marcus Semien, hasn't been much better (.235) despite drawing a team-high six walks. 

For the first time in his career Sean Manaea opened the year on a big-league roster. But that's more a reflection on the current state of the Oakland roster than Manaea's actual skill set. Today's starter gave up four runs in his 1st outing of 2017 and has a 4.18 career ERA vs Texas. I think it's only a matter of time before this Rangers' offense gets going. Carlos Gomez,  Shin Soo-Choo and Delino DeShields have all demonstrated an ability to get on base while Nomar Mazara is also certainly giving a lot of production. As firm as I am in my belief that Texas will regress from last year, they are still a whole heck of a lot better than an A's team I project for last place in the division. 10* Texas

10* San Jose (10:05 ET): Two playoff teams will wrap up their regular seasons Saturday here at the Shark Tank. Calgary is locked into fourth place in the Pacific Division and thus will be a Wild Card. They still don't know which division winner they will play in the first round, however. San Jose is third in the Pacific and will play Edmonton in the first round. They are two points back of the Oilers for second place, but will need them to drop both remaining games (which are against lowly Vancouver) in order to gain home ice advantage for that series. As unlikely scenario as that might be, I stil expect the Sharks to come out motivated here after being beaten here at home by Edmonton Thursday night. Of all the Western Conference playoff teams, San Jose has been the coldest of late (lost 9 of 12) and desperately needs to recapture some "momentum."

That loss to the Oilers two nights ago really hurt the Sharks' chances of finishing second in the division. But one good thing is they've gone 10-4 SU this season when off a loss by 2+ goals. They are 25-11-4  SU at home this year, but curiously have had difficulty beating the Flames here. Over the past three seasons, Calgary has come in and won five of the seven meetings at the Shark Tank. The Sharks also just suffered a 5-2 loss in Calgary last week. All that being said, I still like what I've seen from San Jose over the balance of the season. They limit opponents to just 27.8 shots per game (26.2 at home), which is third best in the league. They give up just 2.2 goals per game at home.

Calgary is also top 10 in shots allowed, but I'm less impressed by their goaltending. Really, considering what a bust FA acquisition Brian Elliott has been, it's somewhat shocking that they will be in the playoffs. Elliott is expected to start tonight and has an .897 save percentage on the road this year. He's been in goal for only one of the four games against San Jose this year. Whomever the Sharks go w/ between the pipes here (likely to be Martin Jones), they will have the edge there. This is Calgary's third straight road game, in a five-day span, all of them coming in Southern California (which is a dreaded trip in this league). 10* San Jose

10* Houston (7:10 ET): After a 3-0 start, the Astros looked every bit of the World Series contender that many, myself included, thought them to be. But they've now dropped B2B games, including the series opener to the Royals last night. Offense has been a bit of an issue for the presumed AL West favorites thus far as four of the five games have seen them held to three runs or fewer (they scored only 1 run last night). The one exception was an extra inning game that saw them win on a walk-off homer. But fortunately for tonight, they have ace Dallas Keuchel on the bump. Keuchel has always excelled here at Minute Maid Park, including the season opener on Monday where I backed him and he held Seattle to just two hits over seven scoreless innings. I look for more of that here against a Royals team I don't have much respect for.

Kansas City's season did not start well. They were swept in Minnesota, a team that lost 100+ games last year. Two years removed from winning the World Series, it would appear that the Royals' championship window has closed. They are significantly weaker in all aspects from LY's team that finished .500, but was outscored by 31 runs. The starting rotation was hit by the tragic passing of Yordano Ventura. The bullpen is no longer what it once was and a lineup that could once get on base w/ the best of 'em has lost key pieces as well.

Danny Duffy starts tonight for KC. While the bullpen was to blame for the team losing his 1st start, I expect Duffy to regress from LY when he went 12-3 in 26 starts. While he didn't drop a single decision at home (7-0), he was only 5-3 on the road. Also, he did not finish strong, going 1-6 (TSR) his L7 starts w/ a 6.37 ERA and 1.585 WHIP. He has a 4.94 ERA in four career starts in Houston. Meanwhile, Keuchel is just two years removed from a 16-0 record here at Minute Maid Park. It's not as if the Royals hit the cover off the ball in their first series as they managed only five runs in the three games. With neither team hitting well in the early going, this one will be largely dependent on the starters and that's a big edge to the Astros. If it goes the respective bullpens, they have the edge there as well. 10* Houston

10* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET): Twenty one games seperated these two American League East rivals in the standings last season. For 2017, the projections are for them to be a lot closer. Toronto lost several key pieces from last year's Wild Card team, David Price and Edwin Encarnacion chief among them, and is thus likely to regress closer to .500. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is a team that many (myself included) have tabbed as one of the most improved teams in baseball. They were nowhere near as bad as the record showed LY. What happened was that they were a MLB-worst 13-26 in one-run games. Improvement has already started to take hold as they're 3-2 so far. I was on them in both wins over the Yankees and off last night's 10-8 win, I'll throw my support behind them again here.

This will be the second time Chris Archer is getting the baseball this season. I backed him in the Rays' season opener Sunday as he held the Yanks to just two runs over seven innings. He also got plenty of support w/ his lineup chasing Masahiro Tanaka from the game early. In my analysis for that game, I was pretty clear that I thought Archer was in line for a bounce back season after finishing LY at -15.6 units (worst in MLB!). Archer's skill set is still strong as he exhibited against Sunday. His 2nd half LY was far better than the 1st and improvement is only natural after a career-worst year in terms of record and ERA. But remember, despite a 3-10 record at home last season, his ERA was 2.65. The culprit was the worst run support in MLB. Archer certainly hasn't needed much run support in the past vs. Toronto, whom he's held to 2 ER in 10 of 11 starts.

Opposing Archer here will be Aaron Sanchez. This will be the latter's season debut and he's looking to build off a strong 2016. But unlike Archer, I've earmarkd Sanchez for regression. He has pitched well in the past vs. the Rays, but the sample size is relatively small. Also, he's going to be leaned on heavily here after the Jays bullpen was called into action early yday due to a disastrous start from Francisco Liriano. Sanchez finished w/ a 16-2 record LY, but he was fortunate to do so as he posted a 4.14 ERA over his L7 starts. A 9-1 road record is unlikely to be repeated. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Boston (1:05 ET): The Red Sox and Tigers played back and forth affair yday afternoon here at Comerica Park. The opener of this three-game set saw Detroit initially take a 4-0 lead, only to give it all away in the top of the eighth (trailed 5-4) and then reclaim the advantage in the bottom half of the frame. I was on Boston and while they came up short, I'll back them again as they're the better team and certainly a value at this price. I was certainly shocked to see Michael Fulmer hold the Boston bats in check Friday. Needless to say, I don't believe today's starter for the Tigers (Jordan Zimmerman) will be able to do the same. Yes, the flu has ravaged the Red Sox lineup, but even so, they're the better team here. They had the chance to win yday; today they get the job done.

Starting here for the visitors will be Eduardo Rodriguez. He posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 14 starts after the All-Star Break last season. He has faced the Tigers twice previously and posted a 2.92 ERA. Something worth noting is that the Tigers' lineup has been outhit in every game thus far. They've certainly made the most of the hits they have gotten, scoring a total of 14 runs off 18 hits. Of course, a key has also been drawing a ton of walks. Through three games, Tigers' hitters have drawn a total of 19 free passes. That number is pretty incredible. Fortunately, Rodriguez generally exhibited good control last year. I feel that the Tigers' offense is due for a "off day" at the plate here.

Boston's offense will see Jordan Zimmerman. After a strong April last year, Zimmerman fell apart and finished w/ a 4.97 ERA. He has a 6.06 career ERA vs. the Red Sox. Yesterday was Boston's first loss remember. They allowed twice as many runs as they did in the first two games combined vs. Pittsburgh. Earlier I mentioned the flu bug that has swept through the Red Sox clubhouse. Well, Zimmerman was also sick earlier in the week. Tigers' hitters struggled the last time they saw a southpaw and should again here. 8* Boston

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Yes, it must be mentioned that a Suns team that has lost 13 straight games has absolutely nothing to play for here. But neither does Oklahoma City really. In all likelihood, the Thunder will be the 6-seed in the playoffs play Houston. From an individual perspective, Russell Westbrook is still looking to make history and become the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple double over the course of a season. He needs one more triple double to set the single season record (42). But something I've been harping on all season is that overall, OKC's offensive efficiency is way down from last year w/ Kevin Durant. They also have a losing road record and are outscoring teams by less than a point per game. Clearly, this number is inflated. Take the points.

Phoenix has not won a game since beating Dallas 100-98 back on March 11th. While a 13-game losing skid is bad no matter what way you "slice it," the fact is the Suns have been competitive in most of the games. They did fall behind Golden State 41-18 after one quarter on Wednesday, but quickly rallied back to make it a five-point game at halftime and very nearly covered the spread for the game, losing by nine as 8.5-pt home dogs. This line is curious because Oklahoma City is getting basically the same respect from the linesmakers as did the Warriors and that notion is pretty preposterous. Golden State is outscoring teams by double digits this season while the Thunder have been pretty mediocre. The Suns beat the Thunder here at home last month (118-111) and were only five-point underdogs then.  

I mentioned earlier that OKC has a losing road record. They are just 17-21 SU and being outscored by 4.3 points per game. They did just win at Memphia, but only by three. Giving up 108.1 PPG on the road makes it tough to cover as a favorite in this price range and while the defense has been better the L2 games, I see it regressing here as the Suns are #2 in the league in tempo and average 109.1 PPG at home. Rookie point guard Tyler Ulis has played well of late, including a 34-point effort Sunday vs. the Rockets. I see the home team keeping this one closer than expected. 10* Phoenix

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Pardon the terrible pun, but I belive the Redbirds are flying a little bit under the radar entering 2017. In terms of expectations, I can't remember the last time they were this low. To be clear, "low" still means an above .500 finish, but w/ the Cubs ascension to the mountain top last year, St. Louis has become almost an afterthought in the NL Central. But I certainly believe this can be a Wild Card team as they're just two years removed from winning 100 games. They outscored opponents by 67 runs last season and that was w/ the pitching staff regressing. In terms of opponent, this weekend represents a massive drop in class as they go from facing the Cubs to the Reds. Cincinnati is probably the second worst team in all of baseball (San Diego) and I put little to no stock into the fact they were able to go 2-1 in their first series, which was against Philadelphia.

The Cards played the Cubs tough for three games. They took the season opener and then lost 2-1 on Monday. Yesterday's game saw them jump out to a 3-0 lead after one inning, but a four-run seventh decided things and the Cubs won 6-4. Mike Leake gets the baseball tonight, looking to rebound from a subpar 2016, which included two rough starts against the Reds, his former team. But, by all accounts, Leake looked a lot better in the spring. The Cincinnati lineup he'll face here is far from formidable outside of Joey Votta. After scoring only five runs in the first two games, the Reds busted loose for seven in yday's win, but it was an unlikely source that provided the difference in the game. Relief pitcher Michael Lorenzen was the one who gave his team the lead for good w/ a solo HR in the sixth. As you might guess, this is not a deep team and there's a lot of replacement level talent on hand. 

Cincinnati was bailed out by its bullpen yday as starter Rookie Davis (who is a rookie!) was not good. But I don't think Reds' fans should be counting on their relief pitching this season. Last year, this group was a disaster, posting the highest non-Colorado ERA in all of baseball while also giving up the most runs. I don't have much faith in tonight's rookie starter Amir Garrett against a Cardinals lineup that was quite productive last season. Garrett is also a southpaw and St. Louis typically hits those quite well. This is a relatively cheap price to go against one of the worst teams in baseball, especially on the road. 8* St. Louis

8* Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): The defending World Series Champs lost on Opening Day, but that was no reason to panic as they rebounded to take two from St. Louis. They stay on the road this weekend to take on another division rival, this one thought to be far less formidable. Milwaukee has opened its season by dropping three of four (at home) to Colorado, so even though it's still April, I'm a bit surprised that the ML isn't higher here. The Brew Crew actually gave the Cubbies a little bit of trouble in 2016, going 8-11 (+3.3 units) head to head, but my view is that this series - and specifically tonight's series opener - is likely to go Chicago's way.

The Cubs' offense finally woke up in the top of the seventh yday, turning a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 lead. That score ended up being the final as the offense nearly matched its production from the first two games combined in that one inning. Kris Bryant has started the year 0 for 13, but it's only a matter of time before that gets turned around. How about here against the Brewers' Jimmy Nelson, who finished last year by going 3-13 w/ a 5.79 ERA his final 21 starts. Cactus League play didn't go much better for Nelson as he turned in a 4.58 ERA in five appearances. While all three losses to Colorado were close, the Brewers' bullpen was hardly stellar, posting a 1.530 WHIP in the opening series. Nelson is 1-6 in 10 career starts vs. the Cubs. 

Though this game takes place in Miller Park, expect the Cubs to enjoy significant fan support as their fanbase is not shy about going up I-94 and turning this place into "Wrigley North." That's what happens when one franchise is enjoying its peak years and the other is downtrodden. One player unfamiliar w/ the surroundings will be Cubs starter Brett Anderson, who came over from the Dodgers in the offseason. He missed virtually all of last year w/ a back injury. But Anderson represents a great "buy low" move by the Cubs front office as their #5 starter. Two years ago, he led all of baseball w/ a 67% groundball rate. Milwaukee was held to just one run yday on five hits and advanced only three runners into scoring position the entire game. This should be an easy one for the Cubbies. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros missed out on a chance to start the year 4-0, losing to the Mariners last night 4-2. They were oh so close to the sweep, but after holding Seattle hitters to 1 for 27 w/ RISP, the game was decided in the top of the ninth as the road team scored twice. Still, many (myself included) consider this to be a legit World Series contender and I think they should bounce back rather easily tonight against the Royals. Two years ago, these teams met in the playoffs w/ KC winning in rather memorable fashion. They would, of course, go on to win the World Series. But much has changed since that time, primarily w/ the Royals. This was not a good team last year (-31 run differential) and they were just swept by the Twins to start the year. I look for Houston to roll here.

While I didn't play yday's game, the Astros' first three games all led to a winning ticket for myself. The first two games, I took them. I had the Under Wednesday. For the series, the pitching staff held Seattle to a total of just eight runs and remember two of those came in the ninth yday. Also consider that Wednesday's game went 13 innings. This promises to be a strong pitching staff - whether you're talking the starting rotation or the bullpen. Getting the baseball tonight will be Michael Fiers. Likely to be a long reliever once Colin McHugh returns from the disabled list, Fiers is nevertheless a solid option here. His strikeout numbers were down last year, but KC just whiffed 19 times in the L2 games and managed only seven runs total in the first series against a Twins' pitching staff most would regard as one of the worst in all of baseball. So I expect Fiers to pitch well tonight.

The Royals appear to be in a lot of trouble. I played against them yesterday as they managed their highest scoring output thus far, but that was still only three runs. They were outscored in the first two games 16-2. Again, that was against a Twins team that lost 100+ games LY. In yday's analysis, I noted that this team was very fortunate to finish .500 last year given the aforementioned run differential. They enter 2017 weaker in every single aspect of the game. Starter Jason Vargas made only three starts last year as he was coming off Tommy John surgery. Regardless of how he performs here, the once mighty KC bullpen has become a major issue as it was responsible for allowing 14 runs in the Twins series. With the offense also scuffling, right now KC is a clear "play against" for me, especially when facing one of the best teams in baseball. 8* Houston

10* Boston (1:05 ET): Mother nature did not cooperate for either of these teams in their respective first series of the season. But the weather proved to be all that could stop the Red Sox as they took both games they played against Pittsburgh (yesterday postponed). Meanwhile, the Tigers had to settle for a split in Chicago after losing yday in humiliating fashion 11-2. Two of the scheduled four games in that series were not played (Monday, Weds). Boston is of course projected to be one of the top teams in the American League this season, if not all of MLB, while Detroit is likely to be spending its year looking up at Cleveland w/ the rest of the AL Central. That makes the visitors look really attractive at this price, especially w/ my belief that today's Tigers' starter (Michael Fulmer) is due to regress big-time here in 2017.

Fulmer finished in the top 10 in units earned last season at +13.2. But that was thanks in large part to the team going 8-0 in games where he did NOT factor into the decision. He won Rookie of the Year due to a 3.06 ERA and 1.119 WHIP, but skill-sets (specifically strikeout rate) indicate his ERA probably should have been a full-point higher. Here, he'll have to deal w/ what was the most productive offense in all of baseball last season. Not only were the Red Sox #1 in runs scored in 2016, they were #1 in on base percentage as well. Fulmer faced them twice and ironically it was the start here at home that marked his worst of the entire year. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in just 5 2/3 and the Tigers lost 10-2. 

Detroit certainly didn't look good yday afternoon in an 11-2 loss to the lowly White Sox. While starter Matthew Boyd obviously didn't fare well, neither did the Tigers hitters, who managed just four hits for the game. Boston won a pair of low-scoring games over Pittsburgh, including 3-0 in 12 innings Wednesday, and I'm guessing it's only a matter of time before their offense breaks out. Starter Steven Wright was solid last year w/ a 3.33 ERA in 24 starts. Counterpart Fulmer has admitted to not having any experience pitching in cold temperatures and I believe that will lead to the Tigers dropping their home opener. 10* Boston

8* Under T'wolves/Blazers (10:35 ET): Right now, Portland has the inside track for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference (top seven teams have clinched). They not only have the head to head tiebreaker over the Nuggets, but also a one-game advantage in the standings. Plus, they play their final four games at home, starting w/ this one against Minnesota. Expect the young T'wolves to be a playoff team next year, but for now they're just relegated to spoiler. Given the circumstances involves, this line seems about right, but I think the total is too high. Both teams have been scoring and allowing more points per game than usual recently, thus we should start to see a return to "normal" levels any day now. It starts here w/ a play on the Under.

Minnesota's last five games have all gone Over the total as they've averaged 113.6 PPG while at the same time allowing 114.2. For the year, they average "just" 105.5 PPG and allow 106.4. So, that's a pretty substantial increase we've seen of late (about 16 PPG), one that should regress to the mean. As you can see, the team's average total points per game for the season is noticeably below what the O/U line is for this matchup. Although they did go Over the total against Portland three days ago (just barely), the Under remains 9-2 for the T'wolves in division contests this season. This is their third game in four nights as well (and they're at Utah tomorrow), so fatigue could be a factor for this young squad.

Monday's matchup between these two saw the T'wolves prevail 111-109. The O/U line was 217. Minnesota won despite making only four three-pointers the entire game, but don't expect much of an increase in that department tonight as this is one of the least prolific three-point shooting teams in the league. As for Portland, they are off a dreadful offensive effort Tuesday night in Utah where they scored just 87 points on 39.8% shooting. Granted, Minnesota is nowhere close to Utah on the defensive end, but I think they can slow the Blazers down enough to help keep this one Under the total. The Under has cashed in three straight meetings here in Portland. 8* Under T'wolves/Blazers

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): There are still two playoff spots that are "up for grabs" in the NHL's Eastern Conference. One is guaranteed to go to an Atlantic Division team. Three teams are eligible for that spot: Ottawa, Toronto and Tampa Bay w/ the Ottawa right now being in the driver's seat. Tampa Bay appears to be the odd team out as they trail Toronto by five points for what would be the final Wild Card spot in the Conference. This game right here could lock things up. Not only must the Lightning win all three of their remaining games just to stay alive, they would need either the Senators or Maple Leafs to lose all three of their remaining games. That scenario isn't happening. In fact, I'll call for Toronto to end things tonight by picking up the two points and clinching a playoff berth.

The Leafs are one of the nice stories in the league this year. For the last couple seasons, they were one of the real dregs of the league. But thanks to Auston Matthews and other young talent, the team has made a big jump up the standings. They are 5th in goals scored (3.1 per game) and the last game aside, it's been a strong finish to the regular season. Prior to Tuesday's home loss to Washington (no shame there), Toronto had won seven of eight and scored four or more goals in doing so. I feel this team is a lot better than its record shows considering a 1-8 SU record in shootouts (league-worst). Their 15 non-regulation losses are also a league-high. Their chances of bouncing back on home ice are strong here considering a 15-8 SU record after giving up 4+ goals the previous game. Goaltender Frederik Anderson has a .920 save percentage at home. 

Tampa Bay has been besieged by injury this year w/ Steven Stamkos' being the most significant. But the bottom line is that goalie Ben Bishop was struggling before getting dealt to LA at the deadline. To me, that trade seemed to signal the "white flag" was being waved here. The team did manage to go on a 5-1 run entering Tuesday's game in Boston, but they were shutout there (lost 4-0). It certainly didn't help that they had only 17 skaters available for that game. While the home team is 0 for 3 in head to head meetings between these two, the fact that Toronto won twice in Tampa Bay re-emphasizes that they are simply the better team here. The Lightning have been outshot in five consecutive games and even their one strength (the power play) is bested by the Leafs, who rank 2nd in the league on the man advantage (TB is 4th). 8* Toronto

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Sixers infamous "process" has generally been maligned, but at least the team is getting it done at the betting window where they are a league-best 48-29-1 ATS. Miami is the only other team in the league right now that can claim to be covering at better than a 60% clip. Now things have gotten dicey in the City of Brotherly Love recently as the team has reverted back to its past ways by losing four in a row. By far, the more humiliating (and inexcusable) defeat of the quartet came here at home Tuesday against Brooklyn when they allowed 141 points. That result is sure to cause the majority of bettors to "write this team off" but I'll buy low as Chicago is unworthy of being in this price range on the road. Take the points.

The Bulls also enter in off an embarrassing defeat. There's also came Tuesday, but on the road. Fighting for their playoff lives, they fell to the sorry Knicks, 100-91 as five-point chalk. Don't let that final score fool you into thinking it was a close game either; the Bulls trailed by as many as 25 in the third quarter in a disastrous effort which saw them shoot 38.1% from the field and commit 15 turnovers. I was on the Knicks in that game and in my analysis I made it clear that the Bulls are an unworthy road favorite. I'm sticking to that story here. The team's record away from the Windy City is just 15-24 straight up. This will be just the 8th time all year that they have been favored on the road. Overall, they've been outscored this season, including by 2.6 points per game on the road. 

I'll concede that Philadelphia's current lineup resembles a M*A*S*H unit, but there's still a sense of pride involved with professional players and those left playing out the string will certainly want to atone for Tuesday's disastrous showing. "Today our performance was under any NBA level," said rookie forward Dario Saric, in reference to the Brooklyn loss. There is simply no way that the Bulls will end up shooting as well as the Nets did Tuesday night. Not only did Brooklyn score 81 (!) pts in the 1H, they were 12 of 17 on three-pointers and shot 64% overall for the game. Chicago has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league all season, ranking 28th in true shooting and dead last (30th) in effective field goal percentage. A very easy schedule may cause this subpar team to make the playoffs, but it won't come easy. 10* Philadelphia

8* Washington (4:05 ET): The Nats are going for a sweep here. I don't think that result would surprise anyone considering the respective states of these two NL East foes. Washington comes in favored to repeat as division champs while Miami is still trying to pick up the pieces following the tragic death of Jose Fernandez. The first two games of this series have seen the Marlins remain fairly competitive, but I'm definitely surprised that the Nats aren't in a higher price range. The passing of Fernandez obviously leaves a massive and unfillable void in the Marlins' starting rotation and depth will be an issue. We see that here w/ them having to trot out Tom Koehler in the third game of the year, opposite Washington's Gio Gonzalez. This should be an easy one for the home team.

Miami blew its chance to steal a game in this series yesterday. They jumped out to a 2-0 lead, but after that didn't do much. It was a 5-2 game (in favor of the Nats) after four innings and the Marlins didn't score again until the eighth. I'd be surprised if the road team got the lead at all here today. Sure, Gonzalez is coming off a career-worst season in terms of ERA. But he did well in his lone start vs. Miami, allowing just a pair of unearned runs in a 5-3 win over Koehler. The Marlins struck out 10 times yday and aside from the first inning, the bats were pretty silent. 

Koehler has not done well in the past against Washington, posting a 4.50 ERA in five career starts. He is coming off a 9-13 season where his ERA was 4.33. A real problem for him here will be Bryce Harper. In 32 career at-bats vs. Koehler, Harper has hit six home runs. Another positive sign out of the Nats' lineup is Ryan Zimmerman, who is off to a .427 start after hitting a career-worst .218 last year. Matt Wieters also collected three hits yday. Going back to the end of last year, Miami has lost four straight times in this park. 8* Washington

10* Minnesota (1:10 ET): The consensus on the Royals coming into the year was that not only has the "championship window" closed, but the club simply isn't very good anymore. Their first two games have certainly done nothing to dispel that notion. They've been outscored 16-2 (losses of 7-1 and 9-1) by a Twins team that lost 100+ games in 2016. Literally, no aspect of the game has gone well for KC. Their pitching staff has been a disaster, issuing 16 walks. Even the once mighty bullpen has fallen as Royals relievers are responsible for 12 of the 16 runs allowed. Meanwhile, the Twins' bullpen has been simply lights out. They've yet to allow a single run and yesterday saw them hold the Royals w/o a hit after the sixth inning. I'll call for the sweep here.

The concern w/ Minnesota is always their poor starting pitching. Year after year, this staff consistently ranks among the very worst in strikeout rate. But through two games against the Royals, they've been able to induce 13 K's including nine yday. Kyle Gibson goes this afternoon. He did not have a great 2016 by any means w/ a 1-8 record here at Target Field. But I expect improvement here. It's not like the Royals are hitting well right now. Gibson's final start of '16 was against KC and he struck out eight in a 7-6 Twins' win. Being a righty he should fare well against the Royals' left-handed hitters, who were a collective 1 of 14 at the plate yday. Acquired in the offseason, catcher Jason Castro is an upgrade behind the plate in terms of pitch framing. As detailed above, we should also be in good hands w/ the Minnesota bullpen.

One aspect of the Twins that I have no concern over is the offense. They've scored 16 runs in two games, which is a carryover from last year's strong effort at the plate. Despite the terrible record, the Twins scored their most runs in a season since 2010. There is a ton of young talent here, Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton chief amont them. So I'll call for Royals starter Jason Hammel to struggle this afternoon. Last year, Hammel was far worse on the road than he was at Kauffman Stadium w/ his ERA jumping nearly three full points. Remember that the Royals were very lucky to finish at .500 LY as they were outscored by 30+ runs. Their days of dominating the Twins are over. 10* Minnesota

8* Under Mariners/Astros (8:10 ET): So far, I'm 2 for 2 in this series, having taken the Astros both games. Tonight, I pivot to the Under. Seattle has scored all of one run this season in what has been an ugly start. Really, I'm not surprised as last year saw this team benefit from a number of career or near career years from older players. Meanwhile, Houston is hardly hitting the cover off the ball in this series. They've scored a total of five runs, four of them coming from solo home runs. They actually had only five hits in last night's win. Tonight marks the first of what will be four consecutive games vs. lefties. M's starter James Paxton had a solid finish to last season and I think that carries over here. As much as I like the current makeup of the Astros, I remain concerned on the offense's overreliance on the long ball. Take the Under. 

Last September, Paxton faced Houston twice and both times he allowed 3 ER or less. He allowed just five runs total in 11 IP. This is a pitcher who posted a 1.12 WHIP after the All-Star Break. With the offense scuffling so badly right now, the team is clearly going to be leaning on Paxton here. Something else I like about Paxton is his control. In only one of his 20 starts last year did he walk more than two batters. In September, he closed w/ a 35-4 KW rate over five starts. With only seven hits this year not being home runs (all singles), I'm not that concerned w/ the Astros offense right now.

Houston will counter w/ veteran Charlie Morton here. While not as impressive as either Dallas Keuchel or Lance McCullers (Astros' first two starters this year), that's not too important given Seattle's offensive ineptitude. It took 12+ innings for the M's to get on the board this year. Morton will also be backed by what could wind up being the best bullpen in the game. In six of the last 10 games played vs. Houston, Seattle has scored one run or fewer. 8* Under Mariners/Astros

8* Washington (8:05 ET): A win tonight would lock up the Capitals' second straight President's Trophy and obviously the #1 overall seed in the Eastern Conference. Thus, I don't think the oddsmakers can make the price high enough for this game against the Rangers, who are locked into a Wild Card spot and will play Montreal in the first round of the playoffs. The Caps, rather easily, disposed of another possible Wild Card last night, beating Toronto 4-1. That was their eighth win in the last nine games. Meanwhile, the Blueshirts are stumbling somewhat, having dropped five of six prior to a win Sunday over Philadelphia. With the clear motivation edges and being on home ice, I'm all over the best team in the sport tonight.

Washington not only ranks #1 in goals allowed this season, but they are #2 in goals scored, thereby giving them the top scoring differential in the league at +79. As already mentioned, they added to it last night w/ a 4-1 win in Toronto. They outshot the Leafs 38-28 and are now averaging 4.0 gpg on 34.2 shot attempts over the last five games. Here at home, they are a dominant 31-6-2 and have scored twice as many goals as their opponents. It's almost a certainty that Braden Holtby will be between the pipes tonight as he was given the night off yday. The likely Vezina winner is #2 in goals against average (2.11) and tied for third in save percentage (.924). Holtby had a couple of uncharacteristically bad showings last week, but then respoinded w/ a big 35-save effort to beat Columbus on Sunday. 

The Rangers have allowed at least three goals in four consecutive games. There is a good chance they'll be favored to beat Montreal in the first round (even w/o home ice advantage), but tonight is not a good matchup for them. Goalie Henrik Lundqvist is still struggling since his return from a hip injury and has an .873 save percentage his L4 starts. The Rangers actually did take the first two H2H matchups w/ the Caps this year, but lost the last one 4-1 in MSG. Something to note is that Washington is a perfect 9-0 this season coming off three or more consecutive road games. 8* Washington

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The market seems to have really shifted against the Rays here following a 5-0 loss last night to the Yankees. But let's not forget that it was TB that took the season opener on Sunday (I was on 'em!), knocking around Masahiro Tanaka en route to a 7-3 triumph. I'm back on the home side again today as they once again find themselves in a quite favorable price range. As I stated in my analysis Sunday, the Rays should be among the most improved clubs in the A.L this year, if not all of baseball. They were far better than last year's record, which was a byproduct of a league worst 13-27 mark in one run games. Meanwhile, despite having some nice young pieces such as Gary Sanchez, the Yankees remain an old team that is as overvalued as ever. 

The Yankees, in sharp contrast to Tampa Bay, went 24-12 in one-run contests last year. Only Texas, who was a historically great 36-11 in such affairs, could claim to be "luckier" in 2016. The disparate records in one-run games is why the Yanks finished 16 games ahead of the Rays in the standings last year. But note that the respective run differentials were pretty similar! A couple of home runs, one from a very unlikely contributor (5'7" Ronald Torreyes), were the key yday. The bullpen also pitched five scoreless frames. But w/o Andrew Miller, I expect Pinstripe relievers to be not as effective this year as they were last. The bottom of the batting order won't be as prolific today either.

Offense was a problem for Tampa Bay all of last year and that reared its ugly head in last night's shutout loss. But I'll call for a bounce back at the plate tonight as they face Michael Pineda, who was an ugly 4.78 career ERA here at Tropicana Field. I was surprised that Rays skipper Kevin Cash shuffled the lineup so much yday. Starting here for the home team will be Alex Cobb, who because of injury was limited to only five starts last year. But I've always liked him and he's typically had New York's number w/ a 2.91 ERA in 12 career starts. That number was significantly lower before a poor outing last year. Keep in mind that yday was only the Yanks 15th shutout win in the L3 years. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): To call this an "important game" from both the Hornets' and Heat's perspectives would be a mild understatement. Right now, both are on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Miami is in much better position though as they are just one-half game out of seventh place, which is currently shared by Indiana and Chicago. Charlotte is two games back and with only four more to play, a loss here would be crippling. Losing last night in Washington really hurt. Getting outscored 36-18 in the third quarter is what did them in. But I've maintained all year that this team is better than its record shows (they have outscored their opponents this season!) and I'm going to stick w/ them here.

If the Hornets ultimately do not make the playoffs, they can pin their fate on an awful 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less. They are also 0-6 SU in overtime games. That is quite the contrast from last season when they went 5-0 SU in OT and finished sixth in the East. I already mentioned that this year's squad has a positive point differential for the year and their net efficiency rating is also "in the black." Overall, I rate the Hornets as slightly better than the Heat, so I believe this line should be higher. Normally, when these teams meat here in Charlotte, the Under is automatic. It's cashed eight straight times and 23 of the L29 meetings. But here, beware of the fact the Hornets come in averaging 112.8 PPG their last five games and 106.6 PPG overall at home.

Miami is also off a loss. Actually, they've dropped B2B games as favorites, both at home. The losses came to the Knicks and Nuggets, the latter taking place on Sunday as they basically trailed the whole way. They were torched for 116 pts, including 37 in the first quarter. A real key to the recent stumbles has been the absence of Dion Waiters. He'll be out again tonight. Waiters was the reason the Heat beat the Hornets in the last meeting (24 pts), but in the first two meetings this year, the team shot just 35.7%. One final thing I should point out here is that Charlotte blew a double digit lead last night. Holding division opponents to just 97.6 PPG this year, I look for the home team to record a huge win tonight. 10* Charlotte

8* Houston (8:10 ET): I'll back the Astros for a second night in a row here. Last night brought a 3-0 win over Seattle as starter Dallas Keuchel dominated from the get-go. The Mariners finished w/ only three hits and tonight will go up against Lance McCullers, who despite injuries still managed to post a 3.22 ERA in 14 starts last year. He'll be opposed by Hisashi Iwakuma, who is coming off a down year in 2016. In yday's analysis, I think I made it pretty clear that the Astros are poised to be one of the better teams in all of baseball. I'm sticking w/ that assertion here tonight and calling for them to make it two in a row over their AL West rival. 

Houston didn't even do much offensively yday, not they needed to. But expect this offense to be better this year w/ six new faces in the everyday lineup, most of which I consider to be positive additions. The key will be a projected increase in on base percentage thanks to Nori Aoki. Here, they should be in line for a big day at the plate if Iwakuma's Spring Training performance was any indication of things to come. He was just dreadful in Grapefruit League action, posting a 7.13 ERA in six starts and opponents hit . 311 against him. Those are very ugly numbers obviously and as is the case w/ Felix Hernandez (discussed in yday's analysis), Iwakuma is a pitcher I'd expect to see start to fall off.

McCullers hardly had a good Spring either, but that was attributable to him using a changeup more, a pitch he didn't go to often in 2016. Houston is now 12-8 since the start of last season and 24-15 against them the L3 seasons.They are being badly undervalued here at home. They are 98-67 here at Minute Maid Park the L3 seasons and that includes a 35-24 mark when priced in the -125 to -150 range.  8* Houston

10* New York (8:05 ET): Chicago finds itself in currently in playoff position, despite being one game below .500. They've won four straight and are in seventh place. Right now, only five games seperate fifth from 11th place in the East. The Bulls have only a one game lead over ninth place Indiana. Meanwhile, the Knicks are already out of contention in what has been another lost year. They come into tonight having lost 10 of 13, including a 110-94 loss to Boston on Sunday. Yet they're a good value here, or rather the Bulls are a team I wouldn't want to be laying points with on the road. As bad as things might have been in the Big Apple this year, the Knicks do have a winning ATS record. Take the points.

Chicago's road record is only 15-23, so they are hardly an ideal candidate to be laying points in this situation. Over the course of the season, they've still been outscored, not only on the road, but overall as well. Like I said earlier, they have won four in a row though. Three of those victories came as dogs. The latest was in New Orleans Sunday, 117-110 as 8.5-pt dogs. That was a game where Jimmy Butler scored 39 points and the entire team shot well. But I look for a decline in offensive numbers moving forward. For the year, they average just over 102 PPG. Their last five games have seen them average 117 PPG.

The Knicks are 2-0 SU/ATS head to head w/ the Bulls this season, including a 15-pt win here in MSG back in January. They also won by double digits in Chicago early in the season. While the Bulls are projected for a decrease in offense, the Knicks are set to see an uptick given that they average 105 PPG at home, yet have failed to break 100 pts in five of the past six games. Carmelo Anthony did not play Sunday, but is set to return here. Who cares about the absence of Derrick Rose at this point? As bad as things have been for the Knicks this year, I would still rate this matchup as a pick em, so naturally taking the points is the way to go. 10* New York

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): The Indians won on Opening Day, 8-5 here in Texas, scoring three runs in the top of the ninth. Overall, they scored five runs total across the final three frames. The defending AL Champs got a boost from their big offseason acquisition, Edwin Encarnacion, who homered in the eighth to tie things up. Starter Corey Kluber wasn't particularly impressive as he allowed three home runs, but the bullpen got the job done, particularly Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, who combined to strike out the final five Texas batters. Tonight, it's Carlos Carrasco on the mound for the Tribe and I expect him to help make it two in a row over the Rangers.

Carrasco did not pitch at all last year in the postseason. Late in the reg season, he took a line drive and broke his right hand. While Carrasco doesn't have great career marks when facing Texas, this is a pitcher who has a very high strikeout rate and I expect him to pitch well tonight. The Indians' offense scoring eight times last night was certainly a good sign as was the performance by the bullpen. There is no denying that this is one of the top teams in the entire AL entering the year. On paper, this a better team than the one who took the Cubs to seven games in LY's World Series.

All things considered, it was a pretty brutal loss for the Rangers yday. They led 5-1, got a strong effort from starter Yu Darvish, had their two best relievers both work and Rougned Odor homered twice. Yet they still couldn't get the job done, which is a bad sign. Of course, this team was quite the overachiever last season. They pulled off the somewhat shocking feat of winning 95 games despite outscoring opponents by only eight runs. Thus, regression (in terms of wins and losses) is to be expected in 2017. Pitching for the home team today will be Martin Perez. He's off a career year and thus he should regress individually as well. Last year marked a career high in starts, innings pitched and strikeouts. His career ERA vs. Cleveland is a woeful 12.46. Indians make it two in a row here in Arlington to open the season. 8* Cleveland

10* Gonzaga (9:20 ET): It has all come down to this. Two #1 seeds, one stored program and the other not so much. Gonzaga let me and the rest of their backers down Saturday, beating South Carolina 77-73 as 6.5-pt dogs. (They had led by as many as 14 in the second half). But the 'Zags will "take it" as they won their first Final Four game ever. North Carolina also survived a close call, winning by just a single point over Oregon and thus not covering. To preserve the victory, they got two offensive rebounds after going 0 for 4 at the free throw line. It was a very lucky win as was the one over Kentucky in the Elite 8. That's two straight wins by two points or less for UNC. Teams favored by two points or less in the National Championship Game have lost four straight times. I'm on Gonzaga here.

Defensive efficiency is such a key metric to me. It's something I've been harping on throughout this tournament. It actually served as a great predictor of South Carolina's surprising run as they rank third nationally in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 1st. North Carolina isn't bad, but they're 16th. They held Oregon to just 37.9% shooting Saturday, which was impressive, not to mention needed as they only shot 36.8% themselves. Outside of Kennedy Meeks, no UNC player had a good offensive game. People will want to predict improvement for this matchup, but I'm not so sure. Gonzaga has held 11 of its last 12 opponents below 42%. Only three teams shot better than 40% during that span. I expect the most efficient defense to assert itself again here and triumph over the UNC offense. 

Despite the non-cover Saturday, Gonzaga is still 23-10 ATS this year. Tonight will mark the first time all season that they have not been favored. I would have them favored here. Yes, much of the focus here will be on UNC atoning for LY's Champ Game loss to Villanova. But this is Gonzaga's year. They have been the best team in the nation virtually the entire year. They will show that tonight and win the school's first ever Championship. Roy Williams and company will have to settle for being bridesmaids a second year in a row. 10* Gonzaga

8* Houston (8:10 ET): Look for the Astros to be strong team in 2017. Like most, I have them favored to win the AL West. Last year was a disappointment as the team finished third in the division at 84-78. The year previous saw them make the playoffs. Improvement for this year starts w/ ace Dallas Keuchel, who was -8.8 units last year. The year previous he took home the Cy Young and here at Minute Maid Park was downright unbeatable. Now most will look at this line and be enticed by the juicy price on Felix Hernandez, which is almost unheard of. But don't be shocked if this is the year King Felix falls off a bit.

There are now a ton of new faces in the Astros' everyday lineup, six to be exact. The majority of them will help aid the team's one true offensive deficiency, on base percentage. In particular, Nori Aoki (career .353 OBP) will be a boon. I don't think there will be a more improved offense in the big leagues. Keuchel was bothered by shoulder issues last year and missed the final month. Again, this was the Cy Young winner in 2015 which included a 16-0 record at home (1.45 ERA, 0.902 WHIP). He actually still fared well against Seattle though last season, holding them to just four runs across 13 IP. The Astros had a winning record overall vs. the M's in '16, going 11-8. Behind Keuchel will be one of the AL's better bullpen.

Quietly, Hernandez really fell off last year for Seattle. His 7.2 K's per nine innings rate was the lowest of his career and is a very troubling sign. Last year's 3.82 ERA was his highest in nine seasons. Here's something you probably did not know. The Mariners were the oldest team in baseball last year. This will eventually have an effect on the defense. Overall, I have Seattle regressing a bit this year. Perhaps they'll still be in Wild Card contention, but when all is said and done, they'll be looking up at Houston in the AL West standings. 8* Houston

8* Run Line Atlanta (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Braves +1.5. Not much is being expected from Atlanta last year despite the fact they showed rather dramatic improvement in the second half last year. Once on a pace to lose 100 games, the Braves got their act together late by going 34-27 over the final 61 games, which was actually the third best record in the National League over that time! They closed the season on a 12-2 run. Now perhaps you might make the case that's a mirage, but cluster luck suggests this was an unlucky team in 2016. Better run sequencing and a better everyday lineup should lead to an increase in wins for 2017. 

I'm not sure if there was a pitcher in all of MLB last year to have more hard luck than Julio Teheran. Atlanta's de facto ace wound up w/ a 10-20 team start record despite a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. I expect major improvement for him this year in terms of the won-loss record. Teheran has actually always fared well against the Mets throughout his career, turning in a 7-3 record and 2.36 ERA. Here's something else that may surprise you: the Braves actually posted a winning head to head record vs. the Mets last season! 

Noah Syndergaard of the Mets is a pitcher that needs no introduction, but he got hammered in his final appearance vs. the Braves last year, giving up five runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Just like last year, it figures to be the Mets battling the Nationals for NL East supremacy, but don't be surprised to find Atlanta finishing a solid third. I see the road team doing no worse than a one run loss here. Predictably, the public is "all over" New York here and that's created a situation where there's now substantial value on the run line. The Braves were 6th in net units earned at the betting window last night, right behind the Cubs! That's largely owed to the +7.3 mark vs. these Mets.  8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

8* Pittsburgh (5:05 ET): Carolina suffered a crushing loss last night (I was on them), getting shut out by Dallas (3-0). Getting shut out by Dallas is not a good sign given the Stars came into the game ranked 28th in goals allowed. Also not a good sign is that the 'Canes are now six points back of the final playoff spot in the East (w/ only five games to play). Perhaps Carolina was due to regress after an impressive March. Whatever the reason for last night's failure, there's no sugarcoating the result. Now, the Canes have to play at Pittsburgh, who are fighting for home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. I'm on the Pens here. 

Home ice advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs would be huge for the Pens as they are tied for a league-low six regulation home losses. Their 4-3 win over the Rangers Thursday was just as key as the Hurricanes' loss was for them last night. It snapped a four-game losing streak. They have had no problems with Carolina this year, beating them in all three meetings including a 7-1 win. Going back to Friday's result, the Pens are 23-13 following a game where they scored four or more goals.

Carolina goaltending has been an issue all season. Cam Ward has been better of late, but his save percentage on the road is below .500. In case you hadn't heard, Pittsburgh is the top scoring team in the league. They average nearly 4.0 goals per game on home ice (also 36.2 shots per game). Pens goalie Matt Murray has a 30-14 record this year. Last night's loss was so crippling to the 'Canes that it should have a carryover effect here. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Charlotte (3:05 ET): Here we have a classic case of a team that's better than its record taking on a team that is not as good as its record. Charlotte would be the former, OKC would be the latter. Here's the eye-opener. The Hornets are six games below .500 and the Thunder are 11 games over .500. Despite that discrepancy, however, they have identical YTD point differentials! That makes this line somewhat inflated, IMO. Charlotte was a nice win for me Friday night by downing Denver. Meanwhile, I won that same night going against OKC as they blew a huge lead at home against San Antonio. That one will sting. Take the points. 

The Hornets actually rank higher in offensive efficiency. I keep harping on this, but the Thunder have seen their offensive efficiency nosedive this year despite Russell Westbrook's individual exploits. They are 22nd in the league in assists. They clearly miss Kevin Durant. They were held below 100 pts (2nd time in 3 games) by the Spurs. Charlotte comes in averaging 113 PPG its last five games and has hit at least 105 in seven straight. 

I should point out that the Hornets have already beaten the Thunder once this year. It was 123-112, in Charlotte, back in January. Key for the Hornets was getting to the FT line 49 times. Two games out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, Charlotte can't afford to lose many games the rest of the way. Thus, taking points seems like a natural move here. I'd actually rank them as the better team here. Overall, they've won six of eight.  8* Charlotte

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays are a club earmarked for improvement in 2017. Last year saw them finish 68-94 and in the AL East cellar. But they were better than that record. A run differential of -41 was almost identical to the -37 posted by the .500 Royals. What sunk TB last season (among other things) was an unfortunate 13-27 record in one-run games. I'd expect that record to improve dramatically this year and thus finishing around .500 is a distinct possibility here. The Yankees have been overachieving the last few years, but I would not be shocked to see them finally finish with a losing record. The home team is a good price at "plus money" at Tropicana Field this afternoon. 

Opening Day Starter Chris Archer should also be a big part of this year's Rays resurgence. He went 9-19 last year (10-23 TSR) and actually wound up being the biggest money-burning starter in all of baseball at -15.6 units. But he pitched better than the record and some of the peripheral numbers show. His second half was far better than the first (3.25 ERA, 103-19 KW rate). Coming off a career-worst year (in terms of record & ERA), it's only natural to expect a bounce back here. Center fielder Kevin Kiermaier being back is also huge, particularly in the field. When the former Gold Glover was in the lineup last season, the Rays basically played .500 ball.

The Yankees remain an older team. Three times in the last four years they have finished above .500 despite a negative run differential. The emergence of Gary Sanchez was huge in the second half, but I don't think he will necessarily be able to maintain that pace this season. Look for the absence of Andrew Miller to hurt the pen as well. Masahiro Tanaka starts today and has never lost to the Rays in eight career starts. While that sounds great, I expect Tanaka to regress some in 2017. The Yankees have also lost five years in a row on Opening Day. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Sacramento (8:05 ET): This is the second of a back to back for the Kings, who lost last night 117-89 in New Orleans. Predictably, they've become undervalued here as a result. Truth be told, this team's season ended for all intents and purposes at the All-Star when they traded DeMarcus Cousins. They've won only five games since the Break, but interestingly the last time was when they were playing w/o rest. Granted that was at home, but the opponent was a good Memphis team. Tonight, they're in Minnesota, who is better than their record but probably should never be favored in this price range. Take the points. 

The T'wolves had lost six in a row (also 0-6 ATS) before beating Indiana (by one) and the Lakers. I've made the case many times before that this is a team whose record should be much closer to .500 (their point differential is near 0). However, this price range really doesn't fit them. Sure they did just cover as DD faves against the Lakers Thursday. Off a SU win, they are only 11-18 ATS this year. As a favorite, they are only 13-19 ATS. Off a double digit win, they are just 5-12 SU. Bottom line is that this is a team I simply would not favor by double digits in consecutive contests.

The Kings shot below 40% from the field last night, so they should probably improve in that department. I just can't see them getting blown out for a third straight game. This is a clear case of "buying low" on a team. They are 9-5 ATS after allowing 115 points in the last game. The offense almost HAS to improve after four straight sub-100 pt efforts. They've averaged just 92 PPG the L5 games, which is well above their season-long average of 102.1 PPG. If they can get to that season average, then they should be in good shape here. The T'wolve let opponents shoot above 47% from the field. They also give up nearly 106 PPG. Look for the road team to stay within a generous number. 8* Sacramento

8* Carolina (7:05 ET): The Hurricanes are the only side likely to be motivated here being that they are still in playoff contention. They are playing much better right now compared to the Stars as they've won two straight, holding Detroit and Columbus to just one goal apiece. Then you have Dallas, which has lost B2B games (at Montreal, Boston) and scored only one goal in the process. Also, Carolina has actually done a good job all season long at limiting shots. Recently, they've been especially good in this department, holding teams to an average of just 24.6 shot the L5 games. Neither team has gotten goaltending this year, but Dallas' has been worse. 

The Stars have been a really bad road team this year. They are 11-23-5 SU. The big reason for that poor record is they have been giving up a ton of goals, 3.5 per game to be exact. This has been the teams biggest issue overall this season as they rank 27th in goals allowed and 30th (last) in penalty killing. This is the fourth road game in five days, so fatigue could be a factor. They are also missing key players - Curtis McKenzie and Ales Hemsky - along the front line. Remember, unlike Carolina, Dallas has been officially eliminated from playoff contention. 

Carolina led the league in goals scored during March w/ 54. As a result, they closed the month on a 9-0-4 run. Trying to get the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, the Canes are currently four points back w/ six to play. With back to back road games looming against Minnesota and Pittsburgh, they must get the two points here. The really good news for them is that Dallas does not score much away from home. They've totaled only six total in the L5 road games and scored more than three only three times in the last 16.  8* Carolina

10* Gonzaga (6:09 ET): Just to show how unlikely a run its has been for South Carolina getting to the Final Four (1st appearance in school history), note that they have been an underdog in all four games in this Tournament. Yes, they were even a slight dog as the higher seed vs. Marquette. Three times they have trailed going into halftime. Sunday, in the Elite 8 against Florida, they faced a seven-point deficit at the break, but were able to overcome that by holding the Gators to 0 for 14 from three-point range after half. Gonzaga also is making its first Final Four appearance in school history, but in their case the trip is long overdue. This has been one of the nation's most successful programs over the last 17 years. A top seed, the Bulldogs are now 23-9 ATS this season. They have been favored in every game. I'll lay the points here as South Carolina's unlikely run ends. 

Gonzaga had no problem w/ 11-seed Xavier in the Elite 8, winning that matchup 83-59 as 8.5-point chalk. I laid the points there as well. Something that continues to get overlooked is the fact that the Zags are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. They held Xavier to just 35.5% shooting. That was the 8th time in the L11 games where they held the opposition below 37% shooting. So, with all the talk likely to be about South Carolina's defense, note Gonzaga's is better. Northwestern is the only tournament opponent of Gonzaga's to score more than 60 points thus far. This is just the fourth team in the last 20 seasons to enter a Final Four w/ a scoring differential better than +20 PPG.

While South Carolina is #2 nationally in defensive efficiency, they are outside the top 100 offensively. For the sake of comparison, Gonzaga is 14th in offensive efficiency. It's been rather shocking to see South Carolina score 70 or more in every Tournament game so far, but here is where I expect their offense to begin to struggle. In the halfcourt, Gonzaga's defense is allowing only .69 points per possession, an astounding number. They've allowed more than 65 points just four times in the L22 games. The 'Zags depth should allow them to avoid "wearing down" in the second half, something we've seen from previous South Carolina opponents. Also, Gonzaga doesn't turn the ball over much and that's an area that the Gamecocks have really benefited by forcing 17 TO's per game. South Carolina also is - by far - the weakest of the four remaining teams from behind the arc. For the year, they are connecting on just 33.3% of their three-point attempts. Gonzaga holds its opponents below 30% while hitting 37.8% itself. I think this line is off here far more than it was for the Zags game against Xavier. 10* Gonzaga

8* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): The Kings playoff chances are all but dead. That's even after a 4-1 win over Calgary Wednesday night. The deficit remains too steep to climb and a loss tonight would in fact eliminate them from contention and lock up the eight playoff teams in the Western Conference. Fortunately, a game against Vancouver should help them keep their pipe dreams alive. The Canucks were expected to be bad this season and bad they have been. They are tied for the third worst goal differential in the league w/ only Arizona and Colorado behind them. This should be an easy two points for the road team.

The injury to goaltender Jonathan Quick really derailed LA's season, but even w/ him back in the fold, the team has managed just three wins in the L9 games. The last time they won B2B games was mid-month, but this is spot where they should dominate. One area where the Kings continue to excel is limiting shots. They lead the league by giving up only 25.9 per game. Vancouver is on the other end of the spectrum and over the last five games, they've been outshot on average - 35 to 25 - per game. The Canucks have just two wins since early March.

Vancouver does have two wins at the Kings' expense this season, one of them coming earlier this month. But I just can't see that same result taking place again. The Canucks lost their last game, here at home, 4-1 to Anaheim. They are 11-17 after allowing 4+ goals and 9-15 SU after scoring 1 goal or less in the previous game. With their season on the line, you have to believe the Kings will dominate an inferior foe. 8* Los Angeles

8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): The Spurs figure to be in an ornery mood here after blowing a 22-pt lead and losing to Golden State their last time out. I was on the Warriors in that game, so that result was "A-ok" by me and now I can use it again to my advantage. The Spurs are 13-3 SU this year when off a SU loss and outscoring foes by 12.7 points per game in that situation. The opponent tonight is a somewhat overrated OKC side that again benefited from a virtuoso Russell Westbrook its last time out. Westbrook went 57-13-11 in a 114-106 win over Orlando that required overtime. Not only did it take OT to outlast the Magic though; the Thunder actually trailed by as many as 22 pts in the second half! I'll lay the short number with the road team here.

The come from behind effort Wednesday was the largest in team history for the Thunder. Again, trailing Orlando by 22 is not a "good luck." Though 12 games above .500, I can make a pretty compelling case that OKC is a pretty mediocre team. In terms of points scored vs. allowed per 100 possessions, they're basically dead even. They have been a good home team, but the defensive numbers (106.1 PPG allowed) still concern me. So too does the offensive efficiency. Aside from Westbrook's individual exploits, this has not been a great offensive team this year. They are just 16th in offensive efficiency.

San Antonio is 1st in defensive efficiency in the league and is the only team besides Utah to be giving up fewer than 100 PPG. In addition to the usual strong bounce back effort that we see from this group, they are 28-8 SU on the road. It's rare that they are favored by so little as well. Before losing to Golden State, they'd won five in a row, including the destruction of Cleveland on Monday. Underrated is a Spurs offensive which is top six in the league in efficiency. They are also 19-7 ATS This year vs. teams that average at least 106 PPG. Meanwhile, the Thunder are just 5-10 ATS their last 15 games vs. teams averaging that many points per game. 8* San Antonio

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Of the two teams in question here, Denver has the far better shot at reaching the playoffs. They are 1.5 games back of Portland, the current 8-seed out West. A crippling loss to the Blazers Tuesday really hurt, however, and was their second loss in a row. Meanwhile, Charlotte is seven games below .500 and three games back of the final playoff spot in the East. But their statistical profile is actually superior that of Denver. The Hornets are both outscoring teams over the course of the season as well on a per possession basis. They are off a much needed outright win in Toronto two nights ago and I believe will keep the momentum going here. Lay the short number. 

Overall, Charlotte is 5-2 SU and ATS their last seven games. Offensively, they appear to be peaking w/ a scoring average of more than 110 points over the L5 games. At home this year, they average 106.2 PPG. Therefore, they should take advantage of a defense which is among the very worst in the league. Denver is 29th. That's ahead of only the Lakers. If you look back at recent results, certainly one could make the case that Denver's defense is costing them big time. Over the L5 games, they've given up an average of over 118 PPG.

Denver isn't a particularly good road team. They're just 15-21 SU overall. Several players are listed as questionable for this game - Will Barton, Darrell Arthur and Mason Plumlee - and any of their absences would obviously hurt. Then there is the fact that Charlotte has already beaten Denver this year, 112-102 in Denver, earlier this month. That game saw prolific Hornets shooting from three-point range and given the Nuggets allow an ever higher percentage from behind the arc on the road, I can see that being the difference again. 10* Charlotte

analysis soon

10* Under Blues/Coyotes (10:35 ET): The eight teams that will make up the Western Conference playoffs are basically a formality at this point. Only nine teams are still in contention and the Kings (11 points back) are a real long shot. So, in that sense, St. Louis is safe despite currently being the final Wild Card. They even could still move up to third in their division and thus avoid playing the Blackhawks in the first round. Even better (probably) for them would be finishing as the top Wild Card and thus avoid the top two teams in their division entirely (Chicago. Minnesota) and instead face whomever wins the weaker Pacific. They are big favorites to get the two points tonight, but I feel the much sharper bet is on the Under. 

Arizona's postseason aspirations went away long ago. If not for Colorado, this would be the obvious choice as the league's worst team. They are 27th in goals scored and 29th in goals allowed, giving them the second worst goal differential in the league and second fewest points. They are also 0-8 the L3 seasons against the Blues. So, yes, this is not a great matchup for them. Especially considering they've lost three straight and six of their last seven. In their last five losses, they've been held to 1 goal or less. That's unlikely to change after tonight as they're facing Jake Allen, who has had their number in the past. Allen has never lost to the Coyotes in his career (7-0) includin a pair of wins this month where his save percentage is .981 (stopped 52 of 53 shots).

Allen has turned in a remarkable .951 save percentage overall this month, so we certainly don't have to worry about him. On the off-chance that HC Mike Yeo does decide to go w/ Carter Hutton between the pipes tonight, that's okay too as Hutton has a .953 save percentage his L4 starts. So, all we really need to "worry about" here is the Coyotes giving up goals. They have allowed seven in the two games vs. St. Louis here in March, but due to scoring only one themselves, both games have stayed Under. The Under is actually 7-3-3 this month for the Blues. It is 14-6 this season for the 'Yotes following a game where they scored 1 goal or less the previous game. 10* Under Blues/Coyotes

10* Golden State (9:35 ET): The Warriors shouldn't have been underdogs last night (I played them and they won in Houston) nor should they be a dog tonight. Yes, I'm well aware that this is the second game of a back to back and the opponent is San Antonio. I have this game essentially as a Pick 'em, so naturally taking points is the way to go. The only time all season, previous to last night, that the Dubs were getting points came here in San Antonio on 3.11. But that was w/ them resting all their stars. Being that their record vs. the Spurs is 0-2 SU/ATS this season (lost by 29 to them at home on Opening NIght), I'd say this game will be treated w/ the utmost importance by the defending Western Conference Champs. After all, they only lead the Spurs by 1.5 games in the standings. Teams playing in the second game of a back to back are often undervalued and that's what we have going on here.

With last night's 113-106 win in Houston, the Warriors joined the Jordan-era Bulls as the only two teams in league history to win 200 regular season games over a three-year span. It goes w/o saying that's very impressive. I said it last night and I'll say it again here. This was the top team in the league each of the L2 years w/o Kevin Durant, so his absence doesn't bother me all that much. Last night, it was the Dubs' defense that shined, holding high-powered Houston to a season-low five three-pointers made. They led by as many as 22 in the second quarter and keep in mind Draymond Green didn't have a particularly good game. While last night was all about the defensive advantage over the Rockets (teams are 1-2 in offensive efficiency), tonight I'll tout the Warriors' offensive edge in a battle of the two most efficient defenses. While the respective defensive efficiencies are virtually dead even here, GSW is a clear 1st in the league on the offensive end. San Antonio is sixth. 

The Warriors are 11-4 SU this season when playing w/o rest, so the situation shouldn't bother them. As for San Antonio, they are off a dominant showing Monday vs. Cleveland and looking for a sixth straight win. I laid the points w/ Greg Popovich's team Monday, but that was the first time they won a game by double digits since beating the depleted Warriors roster three weeks ago. Keep in mind that Golden State has now won eight straight and six of those have been by double digits. Really impressive is that the Warriors are holding opponents to a "Spurs-like" average of 96.4 points the L5 games. Look for them to dictate the pace and cover the spread. 10* Golden State

10* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): I thought this number was too high even before the Bucks went into Charlotte and whipped the Hornets last night, 118-108 as four-point dogs. Therefore, I'm clearly going to back them here as this is an inflated number due to the fact they're in the second game of a back to back. Often times, NBA teams are undervalued in this spot (especially on the road) and that's precisely what we have going on here. Even through the "bad times," I've been pretty consistent in preaching that this Milwaukee team is better than its record shows. Sure enough, they've won 12 of 15 here in March. Meanwhile, Boston is now the top seed in the East (Cleveland fading!), so it's probably a good time to fade them. Take the points.

The Celtics have been pretty hot in their own right, winning four in a row and seven of their last eight. But backing up the notion that it's likely a good time to "sell high" on them is the fact they are 2-13 ATS this season when off three or more consecutive SU wins. Sure enough, they failed to cover Sunday vs. Miami, winning only 112-108 as six-point home chalk. I've got Milwaukee rated as a better team than Miami, so again, this line looks off to me. The last four games for Boston have all come here at home and they've hardly been winning by dominant margins. Their biggest win came against Phoenix and that was by only 10 pts. That happened to be the game where Devin Booker went for 70 by himself. Boston's defense is not as good as it's been in past years as they allow over 105 PPG. Also, this season has seen the team go just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS when playing w/ exactly two days rest.

Aside from the obvious top four in the Eastern Conference, I like this Milwaukee team the most. They shot 62.2% from the floor last night and dominated Charlotte. They had 72 points by halftime and led by 18 going into the fourth quarter. That's despite forcing only FOUR turnovers the entire game and getting outscored 15-2 in transition. I wouldn't be too afraid of any kind of letdown here given the Bucks are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win as a dog. In the only prior meeting this season, Milwaukee was the favorite, though at home and they lost. But given that Boston is only outscoring foes by two points more per 100 possessions than is Milwaukee, my view is that this line is simply too high. 10* Milwaukee

8* Under Thunder/Magic (7:05 ET): Recent Thunder games have not deviated much from the typical amount of scoring we see from them. They come into tonight averaging 107 points per game for the year and over the L5 games have averaged 108.8. At the same time, they're allowing a virtually identical number per game over the last five (106.1) as they do for the year (106.0). This is not the case for Orlando, however. The Magic are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but have averaged over 110 PPG their L5 contests. They're also giving up more PPG of late than per usual. Given neither team's offensive efficiency is that good and Orlando is bound to regress anyway, I'm on the Under here.

My main point w/ the Thunder this year has been despite the wonderful individual season put together by Russell Westbrook, the team's overall offensive efficiency has declined greatly. Last year, with Kevin Durant in the fold, they ranked 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. This year, they are down to a rather pedestrian 16th. Four of the team's past five games have stayed Under the total, including the last one where they barely escaped Dallas w/ a 92-91 win. On the road, the team's scoring average does dip several points down to 103.2 PPG. On the bright side, it was the third time in the last five games that they held their opponent below 42.5% shooting. Defensively, this team is tied for ninth in efficiency, which is a bit of a surprise. The Under is 21-11 in Thunder road games this season.

As for Orlando, we should expect a dramatic decrease in scoring rather soon. As I mentioned above, they come in averaging 110 points over the L5 games. For the season, they average just slightly over 100 and at home the number is actually slightly below triple digits. They are 29th in offensive efficiency and 28th in points per game. Don't expect many second chance points here as the Thunder are one of the top defensive rebounding teams in the league. One bit of good news though is that the Magic are also likely to start allowing fewer points per game moving forward. They were torched for 131 in a loss at Toronto Monday, but at home give up only 102.7 per game. In their last home game, they held Detroit to 87 points. Neither of these teams is very prolific from three-point range either (both under 33%). 8* Under Thunder/Magic

10* Under Wizards/Lakers (10:35 ET): The Lakers are an atrocious team doing a remarkable job of tanking right now. They've won only twice since the All-Star Break. Defensively, you won't find a worse team. They are 30th in efficiency and giving up an average of 116.2 PPG their L5 contests. Here, they are heavy underdogs to a Wizards team that is in the playoffs as one of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference. Over has typically been the way to go w/ this Washington team in March as it's cashed in 11 of their last 14 games. Last time out, they shot nearly 60% from the floor in a 127-115 win over Cleveland. As "tailor-made" a matchup as this might seem to be for them, I feel it's going to be lower scoring than expected. This is a really high number, so go w/ the Under.

Even though they're facing the Lakers, don't expect the Wiz to shoot as well as they did Saturday vs. Cleveland. That's just too hard to do. Also, on the road, we predictably see their shooting drop a bit anyway. The Lakers might be last in the league in field goal percentage allowed, but even so that % is "just" 48.2. That's a substantial drop from what the Wizards shot in their last game. There was also a big offensive effort against Brooklyn Friday, but in the three games prior to that, Washington failed to shoot better than 43% from the floor. This will be among the highest O/U lines for any of their games ll season.

Even for the Lakers, this is a high O/U line. While we've established that the defense is bad, so too is the offense. This blatant tank job has seen HC Luke Walton move to play his younger players and it was an ugly 81-point effort their last time out in Portland. That's a Blazers team that is not good defensively. They shot a pitiful 39.3% in that game. (On the bright side, they did hold Portland to just 40.4%!). Note that the 130 points scored in the win over Minnesota Friday night is a bit misleading as that included a 21-point effort in overtime. There have been only three times previous that the Lakers have scored 85 points or less. They went Under their next time out twice. Neither team's total PPG average comes close to exceeding the O/U line here. 10* Under Wizards/Lakers

8* Golden State (8:05 ET): It does appear as if some early sharp money showed up on the Rockets here. I can only assume that has something to do w/ the fact that the Warriors are playing in San Antonio tomorrow night. But I'm of the opinion that the Dubs should NOT be an underdog here. Really, they shouldn't ever be an underdog. After some early struggles w/o Kevin Durant, clearly this team has gotten things going. They've won seven games in a row, the last six all coming by double digit margins. I've stressed this before and I'll reiterate it again here: this was the top team in the league each of the L2 years w/o Durant and there's no reason to expect they can't be again. They were 5.5-pt favorites in January's visit to Houston (won 125-108) and I don't buy that Durant's absence should have that significant an impact on the pointspread. 

Over the L3 seasons, these teams have played 19 times. Golden State has won 16 of those games. It's actually not the 1st time they will have been a dog. On New Year's Eve 2015, they were 3.5-pt dogs here in Houston and won 114-110. Not only did they not have Durant in that last game, they were w/o Steph Curry as well. Certainly, the Rockets are improved this season. But while they're almost at the Warriors' level offensively (teams are 1-2 in efficiency), it's not even close at the other end of the floor. Always underrated is the fact that the Warriors consistently rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they're second, just slightly behind the Spurs. Houston is tied for 16th. Over the L5 games, the Rockets have given up an average of 117.8 points per game. Golden State has allowed an average of just 93.6.

The Warriors have only been a dog in one other game this year. It was 17 days ago when they rested all their key players in San Antonio. So this will be the first time all year you don't have to lay points w/ them and get Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all in the lineup. On the other side, Houston's James Harden injured his wrist in Sunday's win over OKC. He's listed as probable, but the problem is that the Rockets are far more dependent on Harden that the Warriors are on any one player. There is simply no way Houston matches its shooting from Sunday when it went 63.3% from the floor (2nd highest percentage by any team this season) including 20 of 39 from three-point range. For a point of reference, they were just 7 of 35 from behind the arc the last time they faced the Warriors. 8* Golden State

7* Montreal (7:05 ET): The price is somewhat steep here, but that was to be expected given the current standing of the respective teams. Montreal continues to lead the Atlantic, though that lead has slimmed to just three points over Ottawa. Over in the Western Conference, Dallas has long been out of playoff contention and despite B2B wins, has been officially eliminated. Even though the Stars have allowed just one goal in each of those last two wins, I wouldn't bet on that continuing. After all, they're 27th in goals allowed, not to mention 30th (dead last) in penalty killing. Their recent shot suppression is nice, but is also unlikely to continue.

The Habs recorded a huge win Saturday, beating the second place Senators 3-1 here at home. That was much needed given that they'd previously dropped two in a row, both at home, to bottom feeders Carolina and Detroit. After five straight games w/ 32 or more shots on goal, there has been a bit of an issue getting the puck on net the last two games. Against Carolina, they managed just 22 shots while against Ottawa, the number was only 24. But similar to the expectancy that Dallas will start giving up more shots on goal, Montreal is likely to start producing more. I have no worries w/ the Habs when it comes to play between the pipes. Carey Price has obviously been the reason for the big jump in the standings this year. He carries a .930 save percentage at home into this one.

I'm shocked to see Price's counterpart, Kari Lehtonen, having posted a .951 save percentage his L4 starts. The Stars' overall save percentage is just .895, second worst in the league (ahead of only Colorado, who is last in basically everything this year). Again, anticipating he'll face more shots here, I expect Lehtonen to regress in similar fashion. Note the Stars' last win came in overtime and was against New Jersey. They are still only 10-24 SU vs. teams w/ a winning record. Don't be surprised if the Canadiens' special teams, which are much improved under HC Claude Julien, to be a difference maker here. 7* Montreal

10* Puck Line Colorado (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Avalanche +1.5. It's not often that you can get the +1.5 at this price. Then again, it's not often that there's a team as bad as Colorado has been this season. By every objective metric, the Avs are the worst team in the league. They have the fewest points (43), scored the fewest goals (145) and given up the most goals (249). Their goal differential of -104 is twice as bad as every other team in the league besides Arizona. But there have obviously been a number of one-goal losses along the way and it's somewhat unprecedented to find Calgary in this price range. I feel the Avs do no worse than a one-goal loss tonight.

The Flames have gotten hot down the stretch, winning 13 of their last 16 games. But despite that, they're still only fourth in the Pacific and have a goal differential of just +5 on the year. They are off an overtime win Saturday in St. Louis that strengthened their hold on the top Wild Card spot. With two big games looming against division foes San Jose and Los Angeles later in the week, it will be easy to overlook this game. This team has had the good fortune of going 13-4 SU in games that go past regulation this season. Remember just a tie at the end of regulation here and this play is a winner! Overall, the Flames are 20-8 SU in games decided by one goal this season. While that may not be an extraordinary percentage of games decided by that margin, it's still more than a third of their total games and their good fortune in them is due to eventually swing the other way. How about here? 

The Avs have lost five straight and every loss has been by at least two goals. They've given up four or more in all five games. As bad as that all sounds, I still believe they have the proverbial "puncher's chance" tonight. Calgary is a pretty mediocre team to be in this price range and is only averaging 27.0 shots per game its last five contests. After just playing three road games in five days, might they be running on "empty" here? Again, this will be the Flames' final non-division game of the regular season and I smell "lookahead spot."  10* Puck Line Colorado (+1.5)

8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): Cleveland is in big trouble right now. Not just because they enter the day now tied w/ Boston for 1st place in the Eastern Conference (Celtics won yday). Their defense has just been awful of late and as a result their efficiency rating at that end of the floor has plummeted to 23rd, which would be the lowest of ANY playoff team except Denver, who will be mere first round fodder for Golden State. Forget about winning a potential rubber match with the Warriors in the NBA Finals, the defending NBA Champs may not even get out of the East! After another terrible defensive effort against the Wizards Saturday at home (lost 127-115), tonight brings a much tougher test as LeBron and company visit the Alamo to play the Spurs. Fade them.

San Antonio has no such issues defensively. In fact, they are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. That's a huge edge over the Cavs here as the offensive rating are somewhat similar (Cavs 3rd, Spurs 6th). While it's true the Spurs haven't won a game by double digits since beating the Warriors (who were resting everyone) two weeks ago, here they are finally not required to do so. This is probably one of the shorter spreads San Antonio will see at home all year, if not the shortest. Cleveland is just 2-9 SU as an underdog, 3-8 ATS. Sure, the majority of those games have come w/ LeBron resting, but the fact remains that this number is way too low. Cleveland has let four of its last five opponents shoot better than 50% from the floor and the Wizards finished at almost 60%! Look for the efficient Spurs to exploit that leaky defense.

Particularly concerning for the Cavs is that they trailed both Denver and Washington most of the way and the deficit was often double digits. San Antonio is at a whole different level compared to those two teams. They too are in a battle for the top spot in their conference as they currently trail Golden State by only two games. The Spurs already beat the Cavs this year, in Cleveland, despite not having either Tony Parker or Pau Gasol in the linup. Kawhi Leonard scored 41 pts and given the Cavs' defensive ineptitude, could be in line for another big effort tonight. Cleveland gives up 109.9 PPG on the road while San ANtonio allows only 97.7 at home. 8* San Antonio

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): If you're a regular follower of mine, much of the case I'm going to make for the Raptors here will be "old hat." But it bears repeating how undervalued this team has become in the wake of the Kyle Lowry injury. It is them, not Cleveland or Boston, that sports the Eastern Conference's top net efficiency rating and point differential. Those numbers have only continued to improve in the wake of a current five-game win streak, which has seen them prevail by double digits four times. I had them Saturday night in Dallas when they were badly mispriced (+1) and won 94-86. Tonight finds them laying the biggest number since the Lowry injury, but it's still not nearly enough against the lowly Magic, a team which rates as the third worst in the entire league. 

Orlando has actually won three of its previous four games, including a 115-87 decision at Detroit on Friday. But that only serves to keep the number down. The Magic's other two wins came against Phoenix and Philadelphia, both fellow bottom five teams. Shockingly, they did beat Toronto twice in a week back around the Super Bowl. One win came here "North of the Border" as 11-pt dogs. The other was as a 5.5-pt home dog. But tonight should be all about the Raptors' gaining revenge. It starts w/ the fact that Orlando is only 2-14 SU this season off a SU win as a dog. They are also 0-9 SU after scoring 115+ points the previous game. They shot 51.6% from the floor against the Pistons, something that is unlikely to be repeated given that they rank 29th in offenseive efficiency. In six of their previous eight games, they shot 43.7% or worse.

Defense has been a big reason for the Magic winning three of their last four games. Detroit shot just 35.4% on Friday while Philadelphia and Phoenix also both had bad shooting nights. The 76ers are the only team in the league w/ a lower offensive efficiency rating than Orlando and Detroit is the only team worse in true shooting percentage. Meanwhile, Toronto is a top five team in the league in offensive efficiency and averages 110.8 PPG at home. Even w/o Lowry, there are plenty of options here, most notably DeMar DeRozan. Defensively, the Raptors have held four opponents to 91 pts or less during the current win streak. This should be a blowout, which is why I'm laying the points! 10* Toronto

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Pre-DeMarcus Cousins, I could see this line being valid. But the Pelicans seem to have now integrated "Boogie" into the lineup and are a lot better team now, even though they did lose to Houston Friday. Previously, they'd won three straight and five of six. Tonight's game may very well be "for the season" as they are at eighth place Denver. With 10 games to play, they are five back of the Nuggets. A loss here and the Pelicans can probably kiss their playoff chances goodbye. I'll concede that Denver has been hot of late (6-2 SU L8 games, 7-1 ATS), but it's probably about time for them to cool off a bit. Defensively, they are not a good team at all and to me, that makes them unappealing in the role of favorite. Take the points. 

Yes, I'm well aware that Cousins is listed as questionable for tonight due to an ankle injury. But given the stakes, I'd be surprised if he didn't play. If he doesn't, I'm actually okay w/ that too. The team has won both games he's missed since coming over from Sacramento, by margins of 16 pts or greater. One of those wins came against the Rockets. With Cousins in the lineup, the Pelicans lost to the Rockets Friday, but note it was actually a one-point game going into the fourth quarter and they did a pretty good job defensively. This will be the first meeting w/ Denver since the season opener, a game the Pelicans lost by five despite 50 pts and 15 rebounds from Anthony Davis.

There's a chance Denver could be w/o its leading scorer, Danilo Gallinari, as well. So the absences could end up "cancelling each other out" here. I noted earlier that the Nuggets are not good defensively. To illustrate that point, they rank 29th in efficiency, which places them right between the Nets and Lakers. They are actually closer to last place than they are 28th! Their last three opponents have all shot at least 50% from the field. It's tough to keep winning when you're allowing that kind of shooting. With a big five-game road trip looming, I wouldn't be shocked if Denver gets caught "peeking ahead" and overlooks tonight's game a bit. That won't be the case for New Orleans, who again faces a must win. 8* New Orleans

8* Winnipeg (8:05 ET): According to Wikipedia, the game of hockey was developed back in 19th century Canada. Sadly, for our "neighbors to the north," no native team has hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup since Montreal did it back in 1993! Rather infamously, no Canadian team even made the playoffs last year. At least four are likely to make it this year, giving the "Great White North" some chance, but neither of these teams will be among them. Of course, no one expected Vancouver to be a playoff contender this year. Sure enough, the Canucks have responded in kind as they have the fourth fewest points and fourth worst goal differential in the league. Winnipeg hasn't been a whole lot better and it would take nothing short of a miracle for them to play more than 82 games this year. But being the better team on home ice should be enough for an easy two points here.

The Jets are off B2B road losses to the Kings and Ducks that essentially put their season to bed. It's probably a good thing the schedule makers didn't have them go to San Jose as well (why wouldn't they?). But despite a losing record here in Manitoba, I sense a turnaround, at least for a night. The team has won its last two home games, one of them coming against Minnesota. They've also won the L3 times Vancouver has come calling. This will actually be the first matchup of the Western Canadian franchises since December when they split a pair of games in Vancouver. In both instances, the Jets outshot the Canucks and held them to just 47 shots total.

Vancouver won last night (in Minnesota!), so it's probably a good time to fade them. They'd previously lost seven of eight and this will be their fifth straight road game, a trip which has taken them all around North America (Edmonton >> Chicago >> St. Louis >> Minnesota) and now back into Canada. Following a win by two or more goals, the Canucks are just 1-8 SU this year. They're 3-11 SU after scoring 4+ goals in the previous game. For the record, they beat the Wild 4-2 last night. It was one four-goal period that carried them last night, but don't bank on history repeating itself here as this is the third lowest scoring team in the league. Also, they somehow beat the Wild yday despite just 21 shots. Even more confounding was an OT win at Chicago Tuesday where they were outshot 44-15! Goalie Ryan Miller's days of being a "stopper" are long over and his save percentage his L4 starts is just .897.  8* Winnipeg

10* Under Kentucky/North Carolina (5:05 ET): Lost in all the 5-star recruits and Coach Cal bluster is just how good of a defensive team Kentucky is. Ranked #7 nationally in defensive efficiency, they seen 9 of their previous 10 games stay Under the total. They carry the nation's longest win streak (14 games) into what is certainly the most anticipated Elite 8 matchup, a date with top seed North Carolina in Memphis. The Tar Heels aren't quite as stingy as UK, but can certainly "hold their own" as is evident by their own #20 ranking in defensive efficiency. Both teams average exactly 85.2 PPG for the year and played a very high scoring game in the regular season, a 103-100 win for Kentucky and, no, there was no overtime. Those factors have conspired to make this O/U line a lot higher than it ought to be. Take the Under.

That regular season matchup was played at a frenetic pace. It was 56-51 at halftime. I expect a the tempo to be a lot slower here. Malik Monk scored a UK freshman record 47 points in the regular season win and I don't expect him to come close to that here. Nor is De'Aaron Fox likely to match his 39-point effort from Friday's game against UCLA. The stakes are simply much higher now than they were in Lexington back in December. I don't envision we're going to see both teams shoot 53% from the floor and go a combined 19 of 35 from three-point range. The defensive intensity should be turned up a notch. UK did just hold UCLA to 75 points, which may not sound all that impressive, but the Bruins were the top scoring team in the country and that's 15 PPG below their season average.

North Carolina topped 90 points in its Sweet 16 win over Butler. They also topped 100 in their 1st round victory over 16 seed Texas Southern. But in between, I cashed an Under ticket when they faced Arkansas. Interestingly, of their three Tournament matchups so far, that one was projected to be the highest scoring and ended up being the lowest instead. The Tar Heels have enjoyed a tremendous edge on the board so far in this Tourney (rebounded 43% of its misses!), but that won't exist here. On the flip side, UK hasn't been turning the ball over at all its L3 games, so that should limit UNC opportunities in transition. The Tar Heels are 16-7 Under this season after scoring 80+ pts their previous game while Kentucky has gone Over in nine straight games vs. teams that average 77+ PPG. 10* Under Kentucky/North Carolina

10* Florida (2:20 ET): This line is several points lower than it ought to be and I'm taking full advantage. It always stinks not to be able to cash a winning ticket, but nevertheless I still came away impressed w/ Florida did Friday night. The Gators won what was the "game of the Tournament" thus far, beating Wisconsin 84-83 in overtime on a miraculous three-point shot at the buzzer. How ironic that Wisconsin sent the game to OT on a similar shot. Though it was not a cover for me (had UF -2), being able to win after such a dominant peformance the previous round is pretty impressive. I still put a ton of stock into the Gators' 65-39 dismantling of Virginia in the second round. Meanwhile, I do not believe South Carolina will be able to respond as well from its best Tourney performance to date, a 70-50 beatdown of Baylor in the Sweet 16. Lay the short number here. 

Defensive efficiency is so important this time of year and in that department there is no real edge in this matchup. South Carolina may have been considered a "long shot" to make the Tournament, but they rank 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency, one spot ahead of Florida. It was the 70-50 win over Baylor on Friday that moved them slightly ahead. In that game, the Gamecocks held their opponents to just 30% shooting for the game. That's after holding Duke to 38% in the second half in a stunning second round upset. But Florida is no slouch in this department as they held Virginia to 29.6% shooting. Wisconsin shot 50%, but again, that makes winning all the more impressive for the Gators. But the real key here is a massive gap on the offensive end. Florida ranks 25th in offensive efficiency while South Carolina is 115th, easily the worst among the Elite 8 (no one else lower than 27th).

These teams being SEC rivals, obviously we have regular seasons results to analyze. This will be a rubber match w/ each team having won on its home floor. The Gamecocks won 57-53 in Columbia due Florida going an unfathomable 0 for 17 from three-point range. In Gainesville, the Gators were 9 of 19 from behind the arc and won 81-66. The two games have seen South Carolina only shoot 37 of 107 from the floor (including 7 of 27 from three-point range). Often, I might call for those numbers to improve, but not here. Florida holds its opponents to just 30% shooting from three-point range for the year. The Gators are also 25-3 SU when favored this season, going 19-8-1 ATS. 10* Florida

8* Minnesota (10:05 ET): Though Portland is the one fighting for a playoff berth (and was a playoff team LY as well), I think most objective measures would consider the T'wolves to be the better overall team here. Thus, a spread this high is certainly not warranted, not even w/ Minny being in the second game of a back to back. Sure, last night was the latest in a long line of frustrating setbacks for the young T'wolves, not to mention possibly the most embarrassing one yet. They fell, in overtime, to the Lakers by a score of 130-119. It was a game they led by 15 in the third quarter. Blowing leads, many of them the double digit variety, has been far too common for Minnesota this year, but getting points tonight I feel comfortable giving them my endorsement. Take the points.

Even after five consecutive SU losses, a streak which has also seen them go 0-5 ATS, the T'wolves are basically dead even with their opponents in terms of scoring over the course of the year. This despite actually being 15 games below .500 entering tonight's game. Clearly, it's been a case of a young team being rather "unlucky" as there's plenty of talent on hand here. Andrew Wiggins scored 36 points last night and Karl Anthony Towns is a top 10 player in this league. They were up by eight last night w/ just over two minutes to go in regulation! When Zach Lavine and Nikola Pekovic return next season (both OFY) plus another lottery pick is in the fold, this will be a lock to make my "Most Improved" list. Teams are often undervalued in the second game of a B2B and sure enough the T'wolves are 7-4 ATS in that role this season. 

Portland was a pleasant surprise LY, surviving the loss of four starters from the previous season, one an All-Star in LaMarcus Aldridge. But after three consecutive playoff appearance (twice made the Conf Semis), this year finds them fighting for their postseason lives. Entering tonight, they still trail Denver by 1.5 games for the 8th and final spot in the West. They have been outscored by a larger margin that Minnesota has over the course of the year and the defense has generally been awful (24th in efficiency). Not to mention, this is one of the worst ATS teams in the league at 31-40 (ahead of only Orland). They did just beat the Knicks, who were in the second game of a B2B, Thursday. But Minnesota is a far more formidable opponent. The underdog has won outright in both prior meetings between these teams this season. 8* Minnesota

10* Oregon (8:49 ET): Kansas seems to be the "toast of the town," both literally and figuratively right now. Playing in Kansas City, they are heavy favorite to advance to the Final Four as the top seed in their region. They may want to consider applying for membership in the Big 10 after thrashing both Michigan State and Purdue in their last two games, winning by a combined 52 points. But their Elite 8 opponent, Oregon, just happened to beat the Big 10's hottest team (Michigan) themselves. The Ducks have been able to persevere despite losing big man Chris Boucher to a season-ending ACL injury before the Tournament. It's rare to find them getting this many points (in fact, this will easily be the most they've gotten in any game this season), so I'll leap at the opportunity. Take the points.

The Ducks have been an underdog in only three games all season, twice to UCLA and in an early season game at Baylor. That's a pair of Sweet 16 teams. Kansas is better than both, so it's not shocking to find the Jayhawks favored by more, but I still believe the line is inflated based off KU's last two results. Note that it was only a five-point game vs. Michigan State at the half and the margin stayed the same halfway through the second. Closing the game on a 30-15 run (including 21-6 over the final 7 minutes) certainly skewed perception. Then against Purdue, Bill Self's team trailed most of the first half. Again though, it was a dominant second half performance. I simply refuse to believe the Jayhawks can continue shooting at the current rate (47% on 3's, 60% on 2's!) and I've got to again point out the team has a fortunate 12-3 SU record in games decided by single digits.

Oregon has shot the ball quite well themselves in this Tournament and has an offense capable of matching Kansas. The Ducks turned the ball over just FIVE times against Michigan. Given the Jayhawks have been making a "killing" in transition, if Oregon can take care of the basketball again, they should be in good shape. They are after all 11-3 ATS this season vs. teams averaging 77 points or more. And remember they were favored in the bulk of those contests. Defensively, these teams are basically even w/ Kansas 23rd in efficiency and Oregon 24th. The Ducks actually own the better scoring differential, however, at +13.5 compared to "just" +12.1 for KU. All things considered, I would have this spread several points lower and it's probably a good time to fade Kansas coming off a "peak" performance. 10* Oregon

10* Toronto (8:35 ET): I've been pretty clear of late that I feel the Raptors have become severely undervalued in the wake of the Kyle Lowry injury. The numbers continue to back me up. Not only do they have the best net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference, but their YTD point differential has now surpassed Cleveland. Thursday's 101-84 rout of Miami (on the road!) was really impressive, especially when you consider the Heat were 24-5 ATS their previous 29 games. Considering all that you've just read, I'd hope you'd join me in wondering how in the world Toronto would be a underdog, even so slight, to a team like Dallas. The Mavs did beat the Clippers here at home Thursday night, but had dropped four of six previous to that. I'm on the road team here. 

Thursday's win in Miami made it four straight for the Raptors. Three of those wins have been by double digits w/ the only exception coming against Chicago, who (for whatever reason) always seems to give them trouble. Another recent lopsided win for them came at the expense of tonight' opponent. North of the Border, they crushed Dallas 100-78 on 3.13, doing so as 4.5-pt home chalk. Shockingly, there has been to little to no adjustment by the oddsmakers for the rematch. Granted, they have to be careful about putting too much stock into just one result, but it's pretty clear to me who the better team is here. Note after initially falling behind the Heat by as many as 14 in the fourth quarter, the Raptors outscored them 31 the rest of the way. Given what Miami has done lately, that's pretty eye-opening. In three of the past four games, the Raptors have held their opponent to 91 pts or less. The game vs. Chicago went to overtime remember. 

There's a pretty massive discrepancy at the offensive end of the floor between these two teams. Toronto is 5th in the league in offensive efficiency and averages 107.1 points per game. Dallas is just 22nd in efficiency and is the ONLY team in the league that does not average 100 PPG. It was just eight days ago that the Mavericks lost by 42 in Philadelphia. I faded them earlier in the week as they lost by 25 here at home to Golden State. Though it seemingly worked against the Clippers two nights ago, Mavs HC Rick Carlisle is going with a younger and more unproven starting lineup right now. That's going to result in some inconsistency. The Raptors are the better team and have far more to play for here. 10* Toronto

8* Gonzaga (6:05 ET): Xavier has clearly represented a "buy low" situation thus far in the Tournament as they've won all three of their games as an underdog (I was on them all three times!). Most forget that the Musketeers were actually considered a Top 10 in the country early in the season. Injuries, the most notable being the season-ender for Edmond Sumner (knee) threatened to derail the campaign though. A six-game losing skid last month had their NCAA Tourney hopes on "life-support," but Chris Mack's team then responded by winning six of seven while going a perfect 7-0 ATS at the betting window. However, here is where the Cinderella story ends and I jump off the bandwagon. Top seed Gonzaga has survived some close calls thus far, but I believe is primed for their best showing of the Tournament tonight. Lay the points. 

I keep stressing teams' defensive efficiency for a reason. It is typically a great predictor of future success. Even an Elite 8 "longshot" like South Carolina ranks 3rd nationally at that end of the floor. Xavier, however, is 67th. That's easily the lowest ranking of the remaining eight teams. In fact, no one else is lower than 24th! Gonzaga is 1st, which is something that I bet most don't know. They just held West Virginia to an ugly 26.7% shooting for the game in the Sweet 16. That's really impressive even by the Zags' lofty standard. Incredibly, only one of their previous nine opponents has shot better than 41.5% from the floor (BYU, who handed them their one loss). Seven times during that stretch, Mark Few's team has held the opponent below 37% shooting. In the Tournament, they've held teams to 37% shooting on two-point attempts. This is really impressive!

Xavier comes in having shot at least 50% from the floor in all three Tournament games, so clearly something will have to give here. I'm banking on it being the Musketeers' offense obviously. A key reason that I've played Xavier in all three games thus far is that I've felt all of their opponents were overrated in terms of seed. That ceases to be the case here. Another huge key has been Xavier's Tourney opponents shooting only 24% from three-point range despite a rather high volume of attempts. That seems unsustainable. Gonzaga has shot just 29% themselves from behind the arc, but don't let that fool you into thinking this is a great matchup for the underdog. Rather, I believe we'll see some regression to the mean on both sides of that equation. Look for the Zags to make their shots and advance to the school's first ever Final Four in convincing fashion. 8* Gonzaga

7* Columbus (2:05 ET): While the Blue Jackets have the fourth most points in the entire league right now (102), that's only good enough for third place in their own division. Back to back losses certainly haven't helped, especially a 2-1 loss at first place Washington Thursday night. But at least they were able to pick up a point there as the game went to a shootout. The team got another favor last night with the Penguins losing, albeit that was in a shootout as well. Thus, that leaves Columbus two points back of Pittsburgh and three back of Washington. Tonight they face another Metro team, Philadelphia, that at one point was threatening to make it a five-team race in the division. But the Flyers have fallen way off since an early-season 10-game win streak and now find themselves languishing in seventh place. This division rivalry has been completely one-sided the last few years w/ C-bus winning 9 of the past 11 matchups. Here in Ohio, the Flyers have won just one of their past 13 visits!

Two weeks ago, the Flyers couldn't even beat the Blue Jackets at home (lost 5-3). This despite having EIGHT power play opportunities! Needless to say, that probably won't happen again here. Even when they won those 10 straight games back in November, I was never sold on Philly as their goal differential was not impressive. It currently stands at -26 even after a surprise win at Minnesota Thursday. That's an impressive victory no doubt, but the problem is the Flyers have posted B2B wins just one time since the start of February! Goaltending has been an issue all season long w/ a collective save percentage of just .897 (28th). Ranking just 22nd in goals scored isn't nearly enough to offset that. This afternoon's likely starter is Steve Mason and he's just 8-17 SU on the road.

It's clearly very important that Columbus gain home ice advantage for its 1st Round playoff series. The team they could very well be matched up with, Pittsburgh, happens to have the fewest number of home losses in regulation in the entire league. Losing B2B games has been quite uncommon for the team that has scored the fourth most goals in the league while allowing the second fewest. In fact, the last time it happened was the first two games of February. They have NOT lost three in a row at any point this season! Good news is that the Blue Jackets are 8-2 SU after scoring 1 goal or less their previous game. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has owned the Flyers w/ a 1.88 goals against average and .936 save percentage. I expect the home team to win big here.  7* Columbus

8* Florida (9:55 ET): The East region has been thrown into total upheaval with the early exits of the top two seeds, Villanova and Duke. Furthermore, Virginia was considered the "darkhorse" third option and they're gone too. To me, that leaves the team that eliminated the Hoos, Florida, as the new favorite. While all the talk will be about what Wisconsin did to 'Nova, Florida's massive beatdown of Virginia may have been the most impressive win of the entire Tournament to date. They absolutely bludgeoned UVA, 65-39, which I assure you is not a misprint. Yet, they're only a small fave for this Sweet 16 matchup and don't seem to be getting the majority of public support. I don't understand that all and will gladly lay the short number here.

Wisconsin was probably underseeded, something that was quite unfortunate if you're Villanova. The Badgers did have a late season three-game skid including an outright loss in Madison (as 11.5-pt faves) to Iowa. But since the regular season finale, they've turned things around. Their only loss in the L6 games was in the Big 10 Tournament Final to Michigan. The final margin over Va Tech in Rd 1 may have been 10 pts, but that was their largest lead of what was a basically a two possession game the whole way. The Badgers also benefited there from a school record eight three-pointers by Bronson Koenig. Then came the upset of 'Nova. Yes, the Badgers led for a large percentage of that game, but they were also down 57-50 w/ just over five minutes remaining. They very likely will not be as fortunate to shoot as well here as they did vs. Nova (53.1%!) considering the Gators rank third nationally in defensive efficiency. I know Wisconsin "has experience," but they still turned the ball over too much and got into foul trouble the last game.

There are a number of Sweet 16 teams that have been able to overcome key injuries. Count Florida among the list. They lost big man John Egbunu to a season-ending knee injury back in February. They proceeded to go just 3-3 SU their next six games, twice losing to Vanderbilt, but have had little problem in the first two rounds of this Tournament. I had them against East Tennessee State, which was a 15-point win. Then came the brutal beatdown of Virginia. The "impressiveness" of that victory cannot be understated. They held the Hoos below 30% shooting for the game, including 1 of 15 from three-point range. Will they be able to duplicate those numbers here? Unlikely. But if they even come remotely close, they'll advance w/ ease. Remember that Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Speedy guards Kasey Hill and Chris Chiozza broke down the vaunted Tony Bennett "Pack Line defense" like it was nothing. Even w/o Egbunu, the Gators have four players that can lead the team in scoring and both Devin Robinson and Justin Leon had double doubles (21 total rebounds) against UVA. 8* Florida

10* Kentucky (9:35 ET): Though I didn't expect it to be by much, I have to say that I'm pretty shocked Kentucky isn't favored here. They are after all - Kentucky - and the higher seed. If the line holds, or even goes up for some reason, then it will be just the second time this season that the Wildcats close as the dog. The first was admittedly not a pleasant experience as they lost at Florida by 22. But the Gators may very well end up being a Final Four team. UCLA is a group that I tabbed as overrated long ago. Sure, the Bruins proved me wrong by covering against Cincinnati, but they actually trailed at the half in that game. Their struggle to put away Kent State in the first round also should be a red flag. Simply put, the Bruins 77th place ranking in defensive efficiency (lowest among 16 remaining teams) is bound to eventually catch up with them and I think Friday is the time and place. 

As was expected, UK got a scare in Round 2 from a severely underseeded Wichita State team. I took the points w/ the Shockers (and covered!), but that play wasn't due to a lack of respect for what Coach Cal's team is capable of doing. Rather, I respected WSU that much. UK might be the youngest team left in the field, but they now also boast the longest active win streak in the country at 13 games. They've been able to advance despite their best player Malik Monk not shooting all that well. Imagine if he turns it around. Unlike the matchup vs. Wichita State, UK has a significant edge on the defensive end here as they rank 8th in efficiency. This is also a revenge spot for a five-point loss in Lexington back in December. That day, UCLA was able to score 97 points (shot 53.0%) in an outright upset as 10.5-pt dogs. I do not see history repeating itself here and it sure seems as if there's been a massive overadjustment w/ the line. Kentucky has not lost a neutral site game all year (9-0 SU).

As mentioned above, UCLA trailed Cincinnati at the break on Sunday night. It may not have been a significant deficit, but they certainly struggled against an athletic and long defense. Kentucky is both longer and more athletic than Cincinnati. Thus, I believe we're more likely to see something resembling the Bruins team we saw in the 1st Half vs. Cincy than the 2nd (when they scored 49). On the defensive end, there has been much discussion about an alleged "improvement" down the stretch by UCLA. I just don't see it. They gave up 80 pts to Kent State. Unlike the Bruins first two Tournament opponents, Kentucky has an offense capable of "keeping up." (they average 85.2 PPG). Look for the 2-seed to advance in this one. 10* Kentucky

10* San Jose (8:35 ET): This is actually San Jose's second visit to Dallas in five days. As I said in my analysis for the previous meeting, barring a total collapse, the Sharks will win the Pacific Division. Well, unfortunately, that total collapse appears to be taking place. I lost that play on them Monday as they went down 1-0. A 3-2 loss the following night in Minnesota made it four straight defeats and now the lead in the Pacific is down to just two points over both Anaheim and Edmonton. But I'll call for the slide to end here. Dallas played last night and lost in a shootout to Chicago. That should have an effect here and it's not like the Stars are playing much for anyway. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well, shame on the Sharks. 

It's no secret why San Jose hasn't been winning of late. They can't score. During the four-game slide, they've mustered only four goals total. I realize that Dallas shut them out here Monday, but the likelihood of history repeating itself tonight is next to nil. The Stars rank 29th in the league in goals allowed and also have the league's worst penalty killing unit. Not only did Monday mark just the second shutout of the season for Dallas, it was only the fifth time San Jose had been blanked all season. Some key absences along the blue line these last two games will be filled tonight as the Sharks welcome back defensemen Chris Tierney and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Up front, forwards Jannik Hansen and Melker Karlsson are likely to return as well. So this will be a much stronger Sharks team that Dallas is facing here. 

I made the case Monday that San Jose would have a big edge between the pipes. Though Aaron Dell played well, things didn't really play out that way. Kari Lehtonen turned in a 30-save shutout for Dallas that I quite frankly did not seem coming. But for tonight, it's looking more likely that Antti Niemi may get the start (Lehtonen was in goal last night). Niemi's save percentage over his L4 starts is a woeful .816. Meanwhile, rested San Jose can turn to Martin Jones, a big reason why this team ranks 2nd in the league in goals allowed. The Sharks actually outshot the Stars 30-20 on Monday, so you would logically think they'd prevail. They didn't, but this time they will. 10* San Jose

full analysis soon

10* Phoenix (7:35 ET): Boston is now just one-game back of seemingly slumping Cleveland and all the talk obviously now centers around whether or not they can pass the defending champs for the top spot in the East. I actually think Toronto is a better overall team than Boston, for the record. But with the weight of expectations comes larger pointspreads and here we find the Celtics as big a favorite as they've been in any game all season. In fact, this will be just the third time they've been asked to lay double digits this season. They are 0-2 ATS previously with non-covers against Brooklyn (season opener!) and Philadelphia (January 6th). I understand that bettors will hardly be flocking to the window to bet Phoenix here, but let's take advantage of that fact and grab what looks to be a severely inflated number. 

Last night saw the Suns suffer the indignity of getting crushed by Brooklyn. They were actually five-point underdogs (against the Nets!) in the embarrassing 128-96 defeat. Clearly, this marked a low-point in another lost season. Incredibly, the starting lineup that was trotted out last night was not only the youngest in NBA history (avg 21 yrs, 14 days), but the average age of the starters was actually younger than seven of the eight teams that played last night in the NCAA Tournament! Given we know the veterans on this team aren't very good, this is probably a good idea over the long-term. In the short-term, the results haven't been good. Phoenix is 0-6 SU and ATS its last six games with the last three all coming by double digits on the road.

As bleak a picture as I may have just painted, it wasn't that long ago that the Suns had gone 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS over a six-game stretch. Sunday in Detroit saw them actually lead by double digits before completely falling apart down the stretch and losing by 15. This will be the third straight game getting double digits. However, even by their standard, it's a huge number. The only times they've gotten 16 or more from the oddsmakers this year came against the Rockets and Warriors. Boston might be a good team, but they're a notch or two below those teams. I can't possibly make a case for the Suns to win outright here, but I'll call for the overconfident Celtics to overlook this game and fail to cover the spread. 10* Phoenix

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Cleveland is in trouble and LeBron James seems to know it. The defending World Champs have just been awful defensively this season as is evident by their 22nd place ranking in defensive efficiency. That would be the lowest ranking of any likely playoff team w/ the exception of Denver, who is a sub .500 team that is just hoping to be the 8-seed in the West. For the sake of comparison, last year's Cavs team ranked a respectable 10th in defensive efficiency. Speaking of the Nuggets, they just torched LeBron and company for 126 points Wednesday night. That dropped the team to 0-3 ATS on the current road trip. I know that James has essentially "owned" Charlotte throughout his brilliant career, but going West to East does Cleveland no favors here and the Hornets are a far better team than their WL record indicates. Take the points.

Charlotte enters Friday 2.5 games back of Miami for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Maybe they won't make the playoffs, but I'm already tabbing them as an excellent bounce back candidate for next season. Consider that despite being seven games below .500 currently, they've actually outscored their opponents and posted a positive net efficiency rating. If nothing else, they've been terribly unlucky w/ an 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less and 0-6 SU record in overtime! That's in stark contrast to last season when they were 5-0 SU in OT games. However, we're starting to see signs of potential late season turnaround as they come into tonight riding a three-game SU and ATS win streak. They have a winning record at home this year. 

The narrative here will be James' comments after the Denver loss as he called his teammates out. He should have as the Cavs were just horrific defensively, allowing 73 first half points and 70 points in the paint overall. They forced only six turnovers against 35 Denver assists. Every opponent on this trip has shot at least 50% from the floor against them. They are giving up 110.1 PPG on the road where they've been outscored for the year. Charlotte comes in averaging a healthy number (105.6 PPG at home). I realize that the Hornets are just 1-9 SU vs. Cleveland since James "came home" (0-3 SU this year) and 2-19 SU as dogs overall this season. But I rate this as a pick em game and Charlotte has proven itself to be a totally different team w/ Cody Zeller in the lineup. 8* Charlotte

10* Xavier (10:05 ET): The Musketeers have treated me quite well so far in this Tournament. I've been on them in both games. First, they knocked off overrated Maryland 76-65 as a two-point dog. Then came one of the most impressive performances of the entire tournament as they whipped Florida State 91-66 as 7.5-pt dogs. That was their sixth consecutive cover as it's become pretty apparant this team was undervalued in the wake of the Edmond Sumner injury. But like Oregon w/o Chris Boucher, they are making "due." Sure, there was a six-game losing streak towards the end of the regular season, but they've clearly righted the ship. Arizona is a team that's also been covering of late (5-0-1 ATS L6), but I feel they're drastically overrated. Take the points.

In the interest of full disclosure, I went against Arizona against St. Mary's. Though that play was ultimately unsuccessful (Wildcats won 69-60 as five-point chalk), note that they were NOT "in the money" most of the way. In fact, they got behind big early, trailing 24-14. But credit them for catching fire in the second half where they shot 59.1% from the floor. But such a come from behind effort cannot be counted on regularly. Granted, 'Zona is 5-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. But, defensively, I believe them to be the INFERIOR foe in this matchup. Yes, they held St. Mary's to only 60 points, but that has as much to do w/ the Gaels' slow tempo as anything else. Prior to that win, the Wildcats had allowd 75+ pts in five of six games. Meanwhile, Xavier has held five of its last six opponents to 65 pts or less.

What the Musketeers did to Florida State last Saturday was really impressive. The Seminoles were the tallest team in the field, yet Xavier actually outrebounded them and was able to shoot 55% from the field. There was also a massive discrepancy from behind the arc as Xavier was 11 of 17 while FSU was only 4 of 21. That is unlikely to be repeated, but I don't think it has to be for the Musketeers to pull off yet another upset. Their zone really confused the 'Noles and I'd be shocked if we didn't see it again here. Also, Xavier did a great job at taking care of the basketball last game, turning it over just nine times. I don't have Arizona rated that much higher than FSU, so this line looks to be a real "steal." Arizona has shot 53.5% from the field its last five games. That's due to regress, right? 10* Xavier

10* New York (10:05 ET): The miserable Knicks may have come up just short again last night, but for a second straight time they at least covered the spread. It was a 108-101 loss at Utah, a good team that allows the fewest number of points per game in the league. Predictably, the Knicks are again catching a ton of points tonight in Portland. I get that this is the second game of a back to back (not to mention the 3rd road game in 4 nights), but are the Blazers really deserving of as much respect as the Jazz? I don't think so. Not w/ their 24th place ranking in defensive efficiency or the fact they just lost at home to Milwaukee. Overall, Portland has posted the second worst ATS record in the league, ahead of only Orlando. As lousy as the Knicks have been, they are actually top 10 at the betting window, largely due to situations such as this where they are getting so many points.

The worst thing of all for Portland on Tuesday night is they wasted what was actually a rare strong effort on the defensive end. They held Milwaukee to just 93 points, yet still lost outright at home. They shot just 42.2% from the floor and had only 35 points by halftime. They trailed by as many as 15 in the second half and were a terrible 4 of 21 from three-point range. The offensive number are obviously likely to improve tonight, but at the same time, I expect the defensive numbers to regress. This team allows 109.7 PPG, which makes it very difficult to cover as a favorite of this magnitude. In fact, Portland has been outscored over the course of the season. They are only 17-15 SU at home. 

It's become apparent that the Knicks are deliberately tanking w/ an eye towards next year. They've lost six of seven w/ two losses to Brooklyn during that time. But they were competitive against the Clippers Monday night (lost by 9) and then again in Utah last night (actually led going into the fourth quarter). I project them topping 100 pts for a fourth straight game, which makes covering the spread seem very likely. Furthermore, they've already beaten Portland this season, doing so back in November at MSG. Off three or more consecutive SU losses, the Knicks are 7-2 ATS this season. They're a bad team playing young players, but at least that means we'll be getting a decent effort and this is just way too many points for Portland to be laying against any team. 10* New York

10* Purdue (9:39 ET): It seems as if Kansas is getting a lot of "love" as the potential favorite to cut the nets down next week. I'm not buying it. I felt the Jayhawks were - clearly - the weakest of the four #1 seeds coming into the Tournament. Yes, it was another Big 12 regular season crown for Bill Self, but his team wasn't as dominant as per usual. They were quite fortunate to go 12-3 SU in games decided by single digits in the regular season. Sure, they've rolled in the first two tournament games, but beating Cal Davis by 38 meant next to nothing and second round Michigan State was highly overrated (certainly not one of Tom Izzo's best teams). Meanwhile, despite being Big 10 regular season champs, Purdue doesn't seem to be getting a lot of credit here. Take the points.

The fourth seeded Boilermakers, like Kansas, were "one and done" in their conference tournament. But unlike Kansas (who lost to TCU), Purdue at least had the "excuse" of running into a quality team as they fell to Michigan and let's not forget that was an overtime game as well. In fact, the Wolverines are the ONLY team to beat Purdue since the start of February (did it twice). Let's note that the Big 10 as a whole seems to undergoing a critical re-evaluation in this Tournament as they've placed a total of three teams in the Sweet 16. Wisconsin has already upset Villanova while Michigan beat Louisville. There's no reason not to think that Purdue can't do the same to Kansas here. Getting this many points, I believe they are a simply tremendous value. It's pretty rare to find them getting points (only happened three times previously this year.

Purdue's 1st round game saw them beat Vermont 80-70. They shot the ball very well against the Catamounts, making nearly 52% of their attempts. Remember that Vermont was a team that came in riding the nation's longest win streak (21 games). The final score of Purdue's 2nd round matchup vs. Iowa State (80-76) was a little misleading in the sense that they led by as many as 19 in the second half. That's an Iowa State team that did beat Kansas during the regular season. Interestingly, Purdue also swept the Michigan State team that Kansas just beat. Look for the Boilermakers' size to be an issue for the Jayhawks and I simply don't believe that Josh Jackson can continue this hot run he's been on. Purdue actually has a better scoring differential than Kansas over the course of the year and is higher ranked in defensive efficiency. 10* Purdue

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): The Spurs (quietly) are only 2.5 games back of the Warriors for the best overall record in the NBA. But while the Dubs have recently reasserted their dominance (four straight wins by double digits), Greg Popovich's team hasn't been quite as impressive. Sure, they've won four of six, but every win has been by single digits. The most recent, a 100-93 triumph at Minnesota on Tuesday, saw them actually trail by nine at halftime. But tonight, I look for the San Antonio to post a big win in what is a revenge spot. They lost in Memphis (as 3.5-pt faves) last week and are actually 0-2 SU against their potential first round playoff opponent this season. I expect them to take this game quite seriously. Lay the points.

Memphis has never had much success down in the Alamo, winning only eight times in 48 tries. This will be their first visit here this season. They're off a road loss, at New Orleans, Tuesday night. That game saw them score only 82 points. Despite recent success (loss to NO snapped a four-game SU/ATS win streak), the Grizz have not shot the ball well. Tuesday marked the fourth straight game where they were held to 42% shooting or worse and that's trouble when getting set to face the top ranked team in defensive efficiency in the entire league. Against the Pelicans, three players - Mike Conley, Vince Carter and Wayne Selden - combined to go 0 for 13 from three-point range. Saturday vs. San Antonio, the Grizz shot just 42.1% and I'm really scratching my head as to how they won that one.

It wasn't a great shooting night for San Antonio either Saturday as they finished 9 of 28 from three-point range. Keep in mind this is the best three-point shooting team in the league. Also, they turned the ball over 15 times. Here at home, I expect far better results. The Spurs are outscoring opponents by 9.5 PPG at the AT&T Center. Before losing Saturday, the Spurs were 13-1 SU in revenge spots this season. I think a lot of people are going to view the points as "tempting," something that is not always the case, so fade what could be a trendy underdog. I believe this should be a double digit spread. 8* San Antonio