8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): After taking two of three from the Tigers over the weekend, the Indians have a seven-game advantage in the AL Central w/ 13 to play. That seems pretty insurmountable to me. Yet, don't tell that to the local press in Cleveland, which has declared the season "all but over" due to the losses of BOTH Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar for the remainder of the season. Those are big losses mind you and probably will hurt the Tribe come playoff time. But, for tonight, I'm not worried as they host a Royals team whose season is very much on the brink. Yes, KC did just win three straight over Chicago over the weekend (lost Thursday's series opener). But this has very much been an overachiever this season (-23 run differential), plus they've been a bad road team (32-43). I'm on Cleveland here.

Much more is going to be expected out of Josh Tomlin now that Carrasco and Salazar are done for the year. Following a two-week exile from the rotation, Tomlin returned Wednesday and gave a solid five inning effort where he allowed just one run on four hits. The team won that game easily, 6-1. Tomlin's last two starts against the Royals have also been effective. Facing them twice in June, he allowed just two runs in 13 1/3 IP w/ 9 K's and just one walk. For his career (15 starts), he has a 1.198 WHIP against them. The off day typically helps Cleveland as they are 10-3 this season in that situation. They are also 49-26 at home (11-3 when priced between -150 and -175 on the ML) and 61-36 in night games.

Kansas City goes with Edinson Volquez here and he has not been effective in the month of September. In three starts this month, his ERA and WHIP are 9.60 and 2.00. That's after allowing nine runs Thursday (in just 3 1/3 IP) to an Oakland team that simply is not very good. In 11 career starts vs. Cleveland, Volquez's WHIP is 1.764. I mentioned earlier that the Royals have been a bad road team all season. Well, that certainly includes games at Progressive Field where they are just 1-6. As a road underdog of +125 to +150, KC is just 5-17 this season. 8* Cleveland

10* Under Yankees/Rays (7:10 ET): I'd pretty much disregard the fact that the Yankees come into this series with a significantly better record than the Rays. While 13 games up in the standings, the respective teams' run differentials are virtually identical. The Yanks have been outscored by 19 runs this season, the Rays have been outscored by 21 runs this season. Now that all being said, I'm actually staying away from the side and playing the total here. The Yankees' season basically came to its unofficial end as they were swept in Boston over the weekend. But they go from facing MLB's #1 offense to a bottom 10 outfit (and bottom five in batting average and OBP). I love the half run we're getting over the key number of 7 here and hopefully the Rays are in position to win, so that we can avoid playing the bottom of the ninth. Take the Under.

A 3-24 stretch from 6.16 to 7.16 is what did Tampa Bay in this year. But they've at least been more competitive in September where they are 8-9. All games have been against division foes! They just played Baltimore tough (split) over the weekend where both losses came by just a single run. The Under was 2-1-1 in those games as well. Over the past seven games, the Rays are allowing an average of just 3.0 rpg. Tonight's starter Drew Smyly looked good in his last outing, allowing only two runs in 5 2/3 IP. That game, a 6-2 win over Toronto, stayed Under. I do acknowledge that Smyly's previous six starts had all gone Over, but many of those had come against top tier offensive opponents. In two starts this year vs. the Yankees, Smyly has allowed only three runs in 13 innings of work, striking out 12 and walking only two. In five career starts against them, he has a 0.813 WHIP. Remember that the Yanks are tied for 22nd in runs scored in all of MLB and bottom 10 in all four major categories. In six games at Tampa this season, they have averaged just 3.0 rpg w/ a .209 team batting average.

Conversely, the Rays average only 4.0 rpg at home (26th) w/ a .235 team batting average. Bad news for their already scuffling lineup is that Steven Souza, Jr, who was having a career year, is now done for the season (hip surgery). That's a big break for Yankees' starter Michael Pineda, who has admittedly had his share of struggles vs. Tampa Bay in 2016. But I'll lean on the fact that Pineda has looked better recently, including four shutout innings of two hit ball in his last start. I look for a low-scoring affair here. 10* Under Yankees/Rays

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Because of the injury to Kershaw, there have been only two head to head matchups w/ Bumgarner this season. Kershaw and the Dodgers won both. The last was 7-3, here at Chavez Ravine back in April. Kershaw allowed only two runs and five hits in seven innings of work while Bumgarner gave up four runs and eight hits in just five  innings of work. The first was more of the pitcher's duel that you'd expect with Bumgarner actually giving up one fewer run, but ultimately coming up short. I think the key to handicapping this game and series though is not all about the starting pitching. Rather, it boils down to the fact the Giants have been in a complete free fall since the All-Star Break while LA has established itself as the team to beat in the NL West. With Kershaw on the mound, at home, and available at this (relatively) cheap price, I have no choice but to back the Dodgers. 

I, of course, do not intend on completely discarding the effect starting pitching will have on this matchup. Kershaw is 7-1 at home this season w/ a 1.31 ERA and 0.581 WHIP!  This will be his first time pitching at Dodger Stadium since rejoining the rotation earlier this month. Last time out, he held the Yankees to only one hit in five scoreless innings. His workload has been carefully managed since his return, but there was also a lengthy rain delay in New York Wednesday. I think we'll see him go longer tonight. That means trouble for the Giants. In 34 career starts vs. SF, Kershaw is 18-7 w/ a 1.62 ERA and 0.80 WHIP! Take Buster Posey and Angel Pagan out of the equation and the Giants lineup that will face Kershaw tonight has batted a collective .110 against him! 

Bumgarner has a 5.63 ERA in his two starts vs. LA this year and has not fared as well against them as Kershaw has done against his team. Lack of run support is a major concern for Bumgarner here, not just because the offense is going against Kershaw, but also because they were shutout Sunday and held to only five hits by St. Louis. Overall, they are just 22-37 since the Break. The Dodgers are 47-27 at home, allowing only 3.3 rpg. Bumgarner, by the way, has a 4.34 ERA his L3 starts. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): I think that it's fair to say the National League has played out pretty much how we'd expected. The Cubs (already clinched), Nats and Dodgers are your likely division winners with the Mets, Cardinals and Giants currently competing for the two Wild Card spots. The rest of the Senior Circuit is basically playing out the string at this point. I anticipated a rather sizable gap between the "haves" and "have nots" in the NL this year with the likely "middle class" being comprised of only Pittsburgh, Miami and possibly Arizona. Well, the D'backs are terrible, but another NL West club has been a little bit better than I'd anticipated. That's Colorado. The Rockies just swept the Padres over the weekend (here at home) and while they're still five games below .500, they've actually outscored opponents over the course of this season. This is a good price on them at Coors Field w/ their best pitcher on the mound.

St. Louis enters this series off B2B wins over the Giants. That leaves them two back of the Mets and one back of SF for the two Wild Card spots in the National League. The Cards have had one of the better run differentials (currently +63) in the league for most of the year, but that number has taken a hit recently. They have been better on the road than at home, but this will be their first venture into Coors Field this season. Carlos Martinez will get the starting nod here and he just allowed four runs in his last start, a loss to the Cubs. Martinez has not fared well in the past vs. Colorado w/ an 8.04 ERA in six appearances, two starts.

I really like this Tyler Anderson for Colorado. I think he could be the front-line starter that this organization has never really had. At home, he's managed a 5-1 record w/ a 3.04 ERA, which is tough to do in this environment. The key is he strikes batters out at a pretty good rate. While off a bit of a rough outing in Arizona last Monday, Anderson had allowed just four runs total in his previous three starts combined (18 2/3 IP), giving him a 1.93 ERA. The Cardinals' offense has not been scoring much recently. Over the L7 games, they are batting a collective .186 and averaging just 2.1 rpg. They have not scored more than four runs in any of the last eight games. Look for Anderson to lead the Rockies (.307 team batting average and winning record at home) to a "surprise" victory tonight. 10* Colorado

10* Chicago (8:30 ET): Incredibly, this marks just the third time in the L23 games where the Bears will be a favorite! They went 1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS at Soldier Field last season. None of that may sound encouraging, but how about some long overdue progression to the mean? Philadelphia and its rookie QB Carson Wentz are nowhere near as good as they looked last week in a 29-10 win and cover over the moribund Browns. I'll hold to the the belief that the Eagles will end being one of the very worst teams in this league. Chicago, on the other hand, is a team that I have improving in the second year under HC John Fox. It starts w/ better play at home. With this line move, you'll want to note that it came despite the ticket count actually being in favor of Philly. That's a signal to me of "sharp money" liking the Monsters of the Midway in this one. So do I. Lay the points.

Eagles fans had to be happy w/ what they saw out of Wentz in Week 1. But, again, keep in mind that 278 yard, two TD performance came at the expense of a terrible Browns' defense. Chicago's defensive performance from Week 1 (against Houston) won't necessarily turn any heads, but they did allow only 23 pts and had the lead going into the fourth quarter. Almost certainly, the Bears will give Wentz more problems than the Browns did. This is also Wentz's first road start. I think the accolades drawn by the rookie QB over the past seven days are a bit of an overreaction. Wentz is already down one key receiver, that being TE Zach Ertz. This was not a strong receiving corps to begin with.

The Chicago offense was a massive disappointment in Week 1. They gained only 258 total yards. But they also faced a strong Texans defense. QB Jay Cutler actually had a pretty good 2015, but loses OC Adam Gase. But he gains WR Kevin White, who missed all of his rookie season due to injury. White and Alshon Jeffery should form a strong receiving tandem. Cutler should look to exploit a weak Eagles secondary, which lost Leodis McKelvin to a hamstring injury last week. Remember that they had traded Eric Rowe to New England right before the start of the season. Bottom line is that I put little to no stock into Philly's win last week and believe the Bears are poised to be a lot better this year. 10* Chicago

10* Under Red Sox/Orioles (7:05 ET): It might be a "three horse race" in the American League East between Boston, Toronto and Baltimore, but it is the Red Sox that have clearly emerged as the team to beat in my estimation. Looking at their YTD run differential (+176), it far exceeds that of either the Blue Jays (+75) or Orioles (+27). Boston is off its first four-game sweep of the rival Yankees at Fenway since 1990 (I had them last night), which gives them the longest win streak in all of baseball (at four games). But two factors have me lukewarm on their chances Monday in Baltimore. One is that the Orioles' home record of 47-27 has to be respected. Two is that the Red Sox are off the Sunday night game, which puts them at a little bit of a disadvantage playing the following night. Therefore, we turn to the total and I'm going w/ the Under in this series opener.

These two teams just met last week at Fenway Park. Baltimore came in and was able to take two of three. Both of tonight's starting pitchers worked in that series and both had relatively strong showings, especially Rick Porcello for Boston. He went eight innings on Wednesday, allowing just one run on four hits, in a hard luck 1-0 loss. But losses, hard luck or not, have been few and far between this year for Porcello. He has turned in a remarkable campaign (22-8 TSR!), much better than anyone could have anticipated. He has a 3.12 ERA and 1.008 WHIP and every start but one since the All-Star Break has been quality! It's been 10 straight quality starts and his WHIP in the last seven is 0.77! Bottom line is that we should be able to count on Porcello holding up his end of the bargain in this one.

Dylan Bundy is a guy who pitches much better at home than on the road. Here at Camden Yards, he has a 2.67 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in six starts w/ the Under at 5-1. That's not a good sign for the Red Sox, who scored only three times off him last Tuesday. It's been awhile since Bundy has made it past the six inning mark, but that's okay b/c no one manages the bullpen any better than skipper Buck Showalter. David Ortiz is listed as questionable for tonight's game, which would leave a big hole in the Boston lineup. Baltimore scored only two runs in each of its last two games. With the stakes high here, this should be a low-scoring affair. 10* Under Red Sox/Orioles

8* Green Bay (8:30 ET): I fully anticipate the Packers being the "squarest" of sides tonight. While usually I hold such plays in a bit of disdain, there is no disputing the Vikings were fortunate winners in Week 1 (beat Tennessee 25-16). There's also, in my mind, no disputing their likelihood of them regressing in 2016 after a surprise run to the NFC North crown last year. A now 15-3 ATS mark since the start of last season has to start being chipped away at. The QB situation is the obvious thing to point to when it comes to regression. While Mike Zimmer went w/ Shaun Hill in Wk 1, it will be Sam Bradford getting the nod tonight. I've never been impressed w/ Bradford. Much will be made of Minnesota opening its new home stadium tonght. But the numbers don't lie; NFL teams typically see homefield advantage decline in the first two years of a new stadium. Remember they're now have to adjust to the new setting as well.  Lay the points. 

The Vikings were shut out in the 1H last week, but rallied to beat the Titans on the back of TWO defensive scores. The Hill-led offense never did get in the end zone and Adrian Peterson was held to only 31 yards rushing on 19 carries. As a Tennessee backer in that game, the result was quite frustrating. The step up in class for Minnesota here is pretty significant. With Teddy Bridgewater at the helm LY, they often struggled to beat the good teams on the schedule. Now having turn to Bradford, I don't see that "knock" against them changing

This is a bit of a revenge spot for the Pack, who lost in Week 17 here in Minnesota last year, a game that decided the division. GB comes into 2016 as the favorite to win the North though and actually projects to be favored in every game this season. I think the short number is a tremendous value here. Yes, they were held under 300 total yards LW vs. Jacksonville and failed to cover (by one-half point.) But note Minnesota is 0-2 SU/ATS as a home dog of three points or less the last two seasons. Aaron Rodgers going against Bradford is obviously a major edge here for the Pack and the GB offense is going to be tons better this year w/ a healthy Jordy Nelson back in the lineup. 8* Green Bay

8* Boston (8:05 ET): Red Sox are going for a sweep today and I think they'll get it. The Yanks spirit has been crushed over the L3 days, starting w/ the blown save Thursday. It was another Red Sox rally last night, the second in three days from a 5-2 deficit. New York had been overachieving anyway this season. They have a 77-71 record despite being outscored by 18 runs this season. Consider that last place Tampa Bay has a run differential of -23, yet is 20 games UNDER .500!  Boston, meanwhile, is pacing the entire AL in run differential (+175). A Red Sox win is the logical result tonight. 

NY will go w/ CC Sabathia, whose career numbers vs. Boston are not great. The hefty lefty is just 12-13 against them in his career w/ a 4.54 ERA. However, the current Red Sox lineup has struggled against him (combined .232 BA). But Boston is the top offensive team in MLB (825 runs scored), thus I wouldn't doubt them coming into this game. The Sox have scored at least six runs in every game in this series so far. Sabathia last faced them in July and gave up five runs in 5 1/3. I anticipate a similar performance tonight. 

Boston counters w/ Drew Pomeranz, who has faced the Yankees twice since coming over from San Diego and both times allowed just 1 ER. That's while going a combined 12 1/3 IP.  Pomeranz has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts but that's only because he hasn't been getting the amount of run support we're accustomed to seeing from this Boston offense. Yankee hitters are batting just .211 all-time against Pomeranz.  Break out the brooms for a Boston sweep.  8* Boston

10* Atlanta (4:25 ET): The Falcons lost outright as favorites last week (31-24 at home to Tampa Bay). Meanwhile, Oakland won outright as a road dog (35-34 at New Orleans). Those disparate results are likely to make the Silver and Black the more attractive option to the public, but I'll use that misconception to my advantage and take the points here. It was the slightest of edges in total yards for the Dirty Birds LW (374-371) while the Raiders were outgained by the Saints, 507-486. A defense that gives up that many yards certainly has to be viewed as shaky in the chalk role and it's not as if Oakland is favored regularly. In fact, the previous two seasons have seen them go only 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS laying points. They were 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in non-conference games prior to last week's last second win.

Atlanta's defense had its own issues against Tampa Bay. But I still have faith that HC Dan Quinn (former DC in Seattle) will turn this unit around. The pass rush, or rather a lack of it, has long been the albatross for this franchise and they failed to record even a single sack last week. But they'll be facing a pretty weak offensive line in this matchup and the Raiders are down their starting right tackle. I think the Atlanta offense will have little difficulty moving the ball here. Facing the prospect of an 0-2 SU start, this game is a real referendum on QB Matt Ryan. As a dog, Ryan has eight outright wins the previous two seasons. Note the Falcons are 6-1 ATS the previous seven years in Week 2.

Oakland has rarely been able to sustain success through the years. They are just 7-21-1 ATS their L29 games following an ATS win. I am not as high on this team as some others are as I think LY's jump from 3 to 7 wins indicates either regression or plateauing is on the horizon for 2016. I'm still not sold on QB Derek Carr. Remember the Raiders trailed the Saints by double digits in the 2H last week and twice needed a touchdown and two-point conversion in the 4Q. They won the game w/ a gutsy two-point try in the final minute. Had that not been successful, we'd be looking at this team and this game MUCH differently.  10* Atlanta

8* San Diego (4:25 ET): Prior to Week 1, I went on the record and called for San Diego to be the most improved team in the league. I had them last week plus the points at Kansas City and while they did cover there (+6.5), a 33-27 overtime loss is one that stings. The Bolts had leads of 21-3 and 27-10 (in the 4Q!) that evaporated. The game really swung with a Keenan Allen injury (now out for the season - ACL). Likewise, Jacksonville covered, but lost, in Week 1. They played Green Bay tough, but ultimately came up short, 28-24 as 4.5-pt dogs. It's interesting that the public is on them here, as a short road dog. Pyrrhic half-point covers for both seem to have created a fairly even matchup, but I'm sticking to my guns here. I believe the Chargers and going to be much improved while the Jags are overrated. Lay the points.

Philip Rivers looked every bit as good as I anticipated last week. He completed 25 of 36 passes and I still think he's good enough to overcome the Allen injury. Rivers has certainly had Jacksonville's number in the past w/ a five-game win streak (5-0 ATS) including LY's 31-25 road win. There, he completed 29 of 43 pass attempts for 300 yards and four touchdowns. The Chargers' 5-0 SU run against the Jags is their longest active win streak against any opponent. It only dates back to 2010 as the teams have played every year since then w/ the exception of 2012. The Rivers-led offense has scored 30+ pts in four of those games, including 33 in a 19-point victory the last time Jacksonville had to visit the West Coast.

Again, I feel Jacksonville is being overvalued coming into the year. Yes, they played Green Bay tough last week. But that was at home. Yes, there are some nice individual pieces on this young team. But I do not believe they are set to take the leap. The offense ran for only 48 yards on 26 carries a week ago. That's awful. Again, it is odd to see an underdog receiving this much love from the public. It's created a situation where, to me, the value lies w/ the short home favorite. Again, it was a tough loss for SD last week. But for three quarters they looked like the better team compared to KC, who is a superior foe when compared to Jacksonville. 8* San Diego

10* Under Marlins/Phillies (1:35 ET):  Miami was embarrassed yesterday, losing 8-0 here in Philly. They were three-hit, not a "good look" for a team that has now lost 14 of its past 20 games and is six games back of the Wild Card. Their offense had been doing okay previously w/ seven runs scored in every game of the previous series (vs. Atlanta) and then they had 13 hits in a losing effort Friday. But still, I don't expect much offense Sunday afternoon. Nor do I expect much from a Phillies offense that ranks either last or next to last in runs scored, team batting average, on base percentage and slugging.  Them exploding for seven runs in the first two innings yday was a complete aberration. Take the Under here.

Pitching today for the Marlins is Andrew Cashner. I admit that some of his recent results have not been ideal. His L3 starts have produced a 9.49 ERA and 2.109 WHIP. But that's because two of them, including the last one, were bad. The one that wasn't came against these Phillies and saw Cashner throw 5 1/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball. That ended up being a 6-0 shutout for Miami.  Also, in his final two starts of August, Cashner allowed just two runs total and nine hits in 11 IP. Clearly, he's capable of pitching well.

Pitching here for the Phils is Alec Asher. A recent edition to the rotation, his two starts thus far have both gone well. The first, against Washington, saw him throw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball. Tuesday he allowed only two runs and four hits in 6 1/3 vs. Pittsburgh. These teams have now met 18 times this season and the Under is 11-5-2 thus far. There have been four shutouts in the L8 meetings alone and only one of thoe games have seen more than eight total runs scored. 10* Under Marlins/Phillies

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Truthfully, I don't think the Saints will win many games this season. But last week I thought would be one of them. In the home opener, they led the Raiders by two touchdowns early in the second half. But their always suspect defense cost them another game by giving up 22 pts in the fourth quarter, including game-tying TD + 2pt conversion, then a game-winning TD + 2pt conversion. Losing a one-point game on a 2-pt try in the final minute really has to sting and now Drew Brees and company have to take their act out on the road (where they are never as strong). That leaky defense figures to be a problem facing a NY Giants offense that features Odell Beckham Jr. I look for the G-Men to win this one in a rout.

The Giants are a team due for some luck to go their way. Week 1's 20-19 win over Dallas was a good start. Though slightly outgained by the Cowboys (328-316), the G-Men pulled out the rare close win. Games decided by 8 pts or less did not go this team's way LY (just 3-8 SU), thus a reversal of fortune is probably in the cards here. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I like the coaching change from Tom Coughlin to Ben McAdoo. I certainly like the offense to have a big game here considering the last two times the Giants have faced the Saints, they've scored  total of 101 points! New Orleans gave up nearly 500 yards total last week. They did so while allowing 6.4 YPC rushing, a 63.2 completion percentage and 7.6 yards per pass, all horrible averages. Eli Manning should certainly have a big day here.

Again, we all know how the Saints aren't as strong on the road. Last year, they went 3-5 SU away from the Superdome, but the key is that only one time did they score more than 24 points (27-21 win over the Colts). In five of the games, they were held to 20 pts or less. At home, they did beat the Giants in one of the wildest games of the season, 52-49. This go around, only the Giants will be able to sniff that point total. You really have to worry about the Saints' cornerbacks going against this Giants' receiving corps. Last week, NO lost its top corner Delvin Breaux to a broken leg. Beckham had eight catches for 130 yards in LY's meeting. By the way Breaux's replacement, rookie Ken Crawley, was the one that gave up the final TD against Oakland LW.  8* NY Giants

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): In true "Titan-like" fashion, Tennessee really let me down in Week 1 as they turned a 10-0 halftime lead over the Vikings (were getting 2.5) into a 25-16 loss and non-cover. This despite holding Adrian Peterson to only 31 yards rushing (on 19 carries) and the entire Vikings offense to no touchdowns. The game swung dramatically on a pair of Minnesota defensive TDs. As for Detroit, they went to Indianapolis and won 39-35 as two-point underdogs. The Lions were actually a pretty popular pick among sharps in the LVH SuperContest, thus it's not a surprise to see them now getting more support here in Week 2. But I think the line has been driven up too much and the Titans are a good play plus the points. I could easily see them taking this game straight up as well.

At 4-12-1 ATS since the start of last season, Tennessee is really leaving its few remaining backers broke. But I'm not afraid to "get in at the ground floor" and "buy low" on this stock. This team absolutely should improve in 2016 provided QB Marcus Mariota stays healthy. As I conceded last week, Mike Mularkey is as uninspired as it gets as a HC choice, but the team will improve in spite of him. I absolutely believe they would have beaten Minnesota LW had it not been for a -3 turnover ratio. Again, the defense allowed no touchdowns last week and two of the Vikings' four field goals were long (45+ yards). Yes, there is some concern going against a better offense and QB (Matthew Stafford) here, but note those 39 points the Lions scored LW came at the expense of a very bad and banged up Colts defense.

I think that the defenses that each team faced in Week 1 play a big role in handicapping this contest. Tennessee goes from facing a Vikings defense that will likely finish the season ranked in the top 10 to a Detroit stop unit that likely won't finish anywhere near that ranking. The Lions just gave up 400+ total yards w/ Andrew Luck completing 31 of 47 pass attempts. Another key here is the Lions laying so many points. They were favored just five times all of last season and only once by more than 3.5 points. I simply think this line is an overreaction to Detroit winning in Week 1 and Tennessee's SU record last year. The Titans are due! 8* Tennessee

8* Houston (1:00 ET): Certainly, the oddsmakers are giving some credence to the fact that the Texans now have Brock Osweiler as their starting QB. Last year, with the "immortal duo" of Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden at the helm, Houston checked in as a three-point home underdog for a playoff game vs. the Chiefs and promptly lost 30-0. Now, with Osweiler at QB, they're slight favorites for the rematch. The revenge angle can often times be overplayed, but I do think it matters here. Kansas City was very fortunate to win a 11th straight regular season contest LW as they rallied back from a 27-10 fourth quarter deficit (at home) to overcome the Chargers in overtime. They remain very banged up - on both sides of the ball.

Yes, I played against the Chiefs LW and "lived to tell the story." For three quarters, truthfully, the game went just as I'd anticipated. They were being thoroughly outclassed by the Chargers and went into halftime down 21-3. That game really swung w/ the Keenan Allen ACL injury, which left the San Diego offense virtually impotent. Note it was the largest comeback in Chiefs history! But it shouldn't mask the fact that there are major injuries on both sides of the ball w/ this team. On offense, RB Jamaal Charles is again expected to be out. Two starting offensive lineman, both guards, are also looking they'll miss this game. Thus I'm not sure backup Spencer Ware can replicate his performance against the Chargers here against a better Texans defense. Speaking of defense, KC is w/o Justin Houston, possibly Tamba Hali and LB Sam Barrington left w/ a hamstring injury last week. The secondary is in questionable shape as well. So, yeah, this is a very injured team that was lucky to win its first game.

Houston is also off a win, although theirs came by a more comfortable margin. Here at home, they beat the Bears 23-14 as six-point chalk. Yes, they too trailed going into the fourth quarter, but they also finished w/ a 344-258 edge in total yards. Osweiler looked good in throwing for 231 yds and two scores. The defense certainly did its job as well. The SU/ATS win improved the Texans' record as favorites to a very strong 13-2 SU/12-3 ATS the L3 seasons! Thus, as a short home favorite, they are a great value here as they go for DOUBLE revenge (also lost to the Chiefs in Wk 1 last year). Osweiler will be a difference maker against the banged up KC defense. 8* Houston

10* Under Cowboys/Redskins (1:00 ET): Neither team had an enjoyable Week 1. Dallas lost 20-19 to the Giants while Washington was rather humiliated Monday night, losing 38-16 here at home to Pittsburgh. The road team has actually won outright in each of the previous five editions of this NFC East rivalry, so that coupled w/ this being the 'Skins second straight home game, has me off the side (I'd lean Dallas). Instead, with neither offense impressing much LW, I'm looking at the total and going Under. Curiously, this number has come DOWN despite the overwhelming number of tickets being written on the Over. That's a signal to me of some "sharp action" and even though I chose to go Over on two separate occasions last week, typically playing the Under is the way to go in divisional matchups such as this.

I think that we can all agree that Washington QB Kirk Cousins is bound to regress in 2016. His TD-INT ratio from LY was totally unsustainable. Sure enough, he threw a couple of picks against the Steelers and what should have been a third was blatantly dropped (that drive ended in a Washington field goal). You like that? The Redskins offense scored only one touchdown LW and it didn't come until early in the fourth quarter. Yes, Cousins has completed at least 65 percent of his pass attempts in nine consecutive games. One more and he ties Joe Montana for the all-time record. But most of Cousins' throws tend to be "low risk, low reward." Washington hardly even attempted to run the ball vs. the Steelers, gaining only 55 yards on 12 carries. I have the Dallas' defense improving this season and after holding a better Giants offense to only 20 pts, they should do just fine here.

Going back to last year, the Redskins have actually gone Over in six straight games (excludes preseason). But, as is the case w/ Cousins, all good streaks must end. After being gashed LW by the Steelers, the Washington defense should be more helpful here as they'll be facing a rookie QB making his second career start (Dak Prescott), not Ben Roethlisberger. That's a major difference. The Cowboys offense, which is predicated on running the ball, scored only 19 pts LW against a questionable Giants' defense. Six points came on two 50-plus yard field goals. Like the Redskins, they did not score a first half TD. Dez Bryant had just one catch for eight yards.  The Under is 6-1 in the Cowboys' last seven games following a SU loss. 10* Under Cowboys/Redskins

8* UCLA (10:15 ET): This is the second year in a row that these schools hook up. Last year, as 16-point chalk in Westwood, UCLA held on for a hard fought 24-23 victory. BYU came into that game unbeaten (as did UCLA, both were 2-0) off memorable last second wins over Nebraska and Boise State. This year, they are off a loss and a crippling one at that. Last week was the Cougars sixth straight loss in the "Holy War" with rival Utah and it came by a 20-19 score with them failing on a 2-pt conversion w/ 18 seconds to go. They lost despite SIX Utah turnovers. Note that were it not for a last second FG vs. Arizona in Week 1, BYU would be 0-2 right now. Yes, both games so far have come down to the final play (par for the course w/ BYU!) and this is the home opener. But compared to last year, the Cougs are getting far too much respect here in Provo. Lay the points!

Again, BYU is lucky to be 2-0 ATS as the offense has scored only 37 pts. The defense has been the key, forcing eight turnovers total. But what if those TO's don't come? This matchup sees the BYU defense face the best QB it has seen - by far- this season. UCLA's Josh Rosen is destined to be a pro, coming off a freshman season where he threw for 23 TD passes and nearly 3700 yards. The first two games this year haven't been overly dominant, but last week saw the Bruins score 42 points on a rapidly improving UNLV team.  It may not have been enough to cover a massive 27.5-pt spread, but I was impressed how Rosen completed passes to 13 different receivers. That will certainly keep the BYU defense guessing. As will emerging UCLA RB Soso Jamabo, who keyed a Bruins rushing attack that went for 219 yards last week.

The Bruins' defense brings nine starters back from LY and should be much stronger this year. I thought that overall, the team outplayed Texas A&M (in College Station) in the season opener (468-442 edge in total yards), only to lose in overtime. Prior to that loss, UCLA was on a 7-2 SU run in non-conf away games. I just don't think that the BYU offense has enough firepower to keep pace here. I also think that the gap in talent is much wider than last year, but that's not reflected in the spread. 8* UCLA

10* Oklahoma (7:30 ET): This shapes up to be one of my favorite plays of the entire season. Incredibly, Oklahoma is a home dog for just the third time ever under Bob Stoops. The last time was all the way back in the year 2000 (Stoops 2nd year in Norman!) when #1 Nebraska came to town and OU won that game outright 31-14 en route to winning the National Championship. I realize that OU did let us down big time w/ that loss to Houston in the season opener. But that was a de facto road game and I could argue that Houston is a better team that Ohio State! Yes, the Buckeyes have looked dominant their first two games, but Bowling Green and Tulsa aren't true prep for the least experienced team in all of College Football to head into Memorial Stadium where Stoops is now 97-8 SU (93%) all-time following LW 59-17 massacre of LA Monroe. Take the points (though I anticipate an OU win).

You're likely to hear and read a lot about Urban Meyer's success in road games. Since coming to Columbus, he hasn't lost one. But there's a first time for everything and I simply cannot understand why the Buckeyes are favored here. Consider that the opening number (over the summer) had Oklahoma favored by six to win this game! As I said above, OSU came into 2016 as the least experienced team in the entire country. The NFL Draft hit them hard and left them w/ only SIX returning starters. Some say that allows Meyer to mold the team to his liking better, but I don't buy that. Last week, the Buckeyes didn't score an offensive TD until the 9:42 mark of the third quarter. Granted, the weather was rough, but that's no excuse against a team like Tulsa. On defense, they have already lost a starter along the line (Tracy Sprinkle) to a season-ending injury. 

Oklahoma has won outright the last four times it has been a dog. Again, you have to go back almost 16 years to find the last time this team was a dog in Norman. They entered 2016 w/ legitimate CFP hopes (made it last year), but a second loss in September would basically wreck the entire season. I don't see that happening. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon form arguably the best RB combo in the country. I like QB Baker Mayfield to play better here than he did vs. Houston. I love tight end Mark Andrews. Ohio State has gotten THREE touchdowns from its defense already this season; that kind of fortune is difficult to maintain. 10* Oklahoma

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Given the teams involved, I did a double-take when I first saw this line. Immediately, I figured that Ervin Santana must be pitching for the Twins (he is) and probably Seth Lugo was going for the Mets (he is). Santana continues to get plenty of respect from oddsmakers, but the bottom line is that he's bottom five in baseball in net units (-11.5) thanks to an 8-19 team start record (w/ both Angels and Twins). "True to form," he's lost B2B quality starts. Starting pitching is important, but not the "end all, be all" and the gap between these two teams is too great for Santana alone to rectify. Remember, the Twins lose the DH spot from the batting order here (were shut out last night!). With a two-game lead in the NL Wild Card race, the Mets simply cannot afford to drop a game to this lowly opponent.

Before simply dismissing Lugo as the inferior starting pitcher in this matchup, let us take note of what the youngster has accomplished through five starts. He has a 2.27 ERA and 1.010 WHIP and has yet to concede more than 3 ER any time out. Most importantly, the Mets have won each of his last four starts. The last one came against a similarly overmatched opponent, Atlanta. Interestingly, the Twins now have a worse record than the Braves, so they have the worst record in all of baseball. They are definitely a bottom five team overall and the worst from the American League. At home, Lugo is definitely being undervalued in this spot. He was -120 on the money line for a start against Washington on September 4th! 

Santana, by the way, has a 4.76 ERA his L4 starts. So it's not as if he arrives in top form. He has walked a high number of batters during that time (12 in 22 1/3 IP) and also given up a home run in all four starts. Out of contention long ago, the Twins have smartly given time to their youngsters. While that's a good plan for the future, it leads to bad results in the present and sure enough the team has lost 22 of its last 28 games overall. They are only 26-47 on the road this season and are 1-6 following a shutout loss. They have given up - by far - the most runs in all of baseball (5.5 per game). The Mets, winners of 18 of 26, allow only 3.6 rpg at home for the season. 8* NY Mets

8* Auburn (7:00 ET): For a road underdog, Texas A&M seems to be drawing an irregular amount of public support. I will concede that the home team is 0-4 SU (and ATS) in this SEC West rivalry with each of the last three seasons seeing the road dog come in and pull an outright upset. In fact, the last time A&M came calling to Jordan-Hare, they were 23-point dogs and won 41-38! Auburn returned the favor LY in College Station, winning 26-10 as seven-point pups, so I can see why people are thinking revenge and the points might be a good idea here. But that's also made the Tigers undervalued in this spot, at least from where I sit. Remember that they did play #3 Clemson tough here (lost only 19-13) and those Tigers are a much better team than A&M, who is just 4-11 SU/5-10 ATS taking points under HC Kevin Sumlin anyway. Lay the points here!

I had Auburn plus the points against Clemson in the season opener. It was by no means the prettiest of covers, but they got the job done. Last week, as expected, brought a far more convincing effort w/ a 51-14 beatdown of Arkansas State (where HC Gus Malzahn worked in 2012). It's only been two games, but I've been impressed w/ this Tigers defense. Last week, they held the Red Wolves to just 66 yards rushing on 35 carries. I know it won't be that easy here against A&M, but having already faced DeShaun Watson, they should be ready. Thanks to recruiting efforts, the Auburn defensive line is much better this year and I favor them over a relatively inexperienced A&M O-line. Offensively, it appears as if Malzahn has settled on Sean White at QB. White accounted for over 300 total yds last week and looked a lot more comfortable than he did vs. Clemson.

Under Sumlin, A&M has lost only two times in September. Once was his very first game, also the first start of Johnny Manziel. The other was to #1 Alabama in 2013. Since that second loss, they've won 10 straight in September. But almost all of those have been home games. The Aggies didn't play a "true" road game in September last year and this will be the first of 2016. I put little stock in LW's 67-0 drubbing over Prairie View A&M (who always stinks) and in many ways the roles are reversed here for Sumlin's team from the Week 1 overtime win over UCLA. That game saw them come in unranked, but favored over the Top 25 opponent. Now, that's the case for Auburn. This is a situation that I often like to exploit w/ the public typically siding with the ranked team getting points. I think Auburn is better than last year when they won 26-10 in College Station and led by double digits most of the way. 8* Auburn

10* Tulane (7:00 ET):  Matt Forte's alma mater is drawing some sharp action this week. That may seem a little odd to you, but Tulane certainly has a good defense that is built to keep them in games. In the season opener, the offense scored only three points, but they still covered easily (were getting more than two touchdowns) in a 7-3 loss at Wake Forest (who then pulled off an impressive outright win at Duke LW). Last week, as you might expect, went a lot smoother against Southern. The Green Wave drubbed the Jags 66-21 as a 31.5-pt choice and while that result may not mean much in the long run, at least it likely gave the offense enough confidence that they now think they can compete (and possibly beat!) a Navy team I feel is due to regress in 2016. Ride the (Green) Wave as they sink the Midshipmen! Take the points.

Navy was under fire from some sharp action last week as well, but held on to beat UConn 28-24 in Annapolis. They actually ended up (just barely) covering the closing number of -3.5, but not w/o some good fortune as UConn was inept at the end of the game and let time run out while at the Middies' 1-yard line! A big reason why many (myself included) believe Navy is set for a "down year" is the massive exodus of experience from LY's 11-win squad. Four-year starter Keenan Reynolds was perhaps the program's best player since Roger Staubach and he's gone. Incredibly, HC Ken Niumatalolo returned only ONE starter on the offensive side of the ball. In the season opener, he literally had to find a QB out of the stands (not making this up!). It didn't matter b/c the opponent was Fordham (Navy won 52-16), but expected starter Tago Smith is now done for the year w/ a torn ACL. That leaves Will Worth to make his first career road start here. Worth played okay LW vs. UConn, but only accounted for 174 total yds on eight pass attempts and 19 carries.

When facing Navy, the triple option is typically an issue for most teams. It won't be for Tulane. That's because 1st year HC Willie Fritz runs virtually the same offense. The Green Wave ran for 437 yards last week thanks to their own change at QB, going to freshman Jonathan Brantley. But the key here remains the Green Wave defense, which has a ton of experience (eight starters back) and last week forced four turnovers. Last year saw Navy gain season lows in both rush yards (133) and total yards (291) against Tulane. That game was much closer than the 31-14 score seems to indicate as Tulane outgained them and what was a 10-7 game at halftime only got out of hand due to some turnovers (one a fumble at the Navy 1-yd line!) and the Green Wave offense being stopped on downs. While this is Navy's first trip to Yulman Stadium (built in 2014), they are just 1-8-1 SU all-time in the city of New Orleans. 10* Tulane

10* Nebraska (3:30 ET): We have a Top 25 team taking on an unranked opponent here, but it's the latter that's favored. This is a situation I often like to exploit as the public sees the number next to the one team and falls into the trap of "they must be better." The reality of the matter is that often times the gap isn't what you might think. In this instance, you have #22 Oregon, a program that is no longer what it once was under Chip Kelly. But based on reputation (I can only assume) they've drawn the majority of the action for this week's cross-country tilt in Lincoln. I'm on the record as saying Nebraska will be much improved this season as last year's team was much better than it's 6-7 SU record (all but one loss by 8 pts or less). Saturday afternoon, I'll call for the biggest win of the Mike Reilly era. Lay the points.

Reilly is of course quite familiar w/ the contingent from Eugene. He came from Oregon State where seven straight losses in the "Civil War" contributed to a rather unpleasant end to his 14 year tenure in Corvallis. Last season marked the only time in Reilly's coaching career he didn't face the Ducks. Needless to say, 2016 has gotten off to a much better start than 2015. Whereas last year saw Nebraska open 3-5 SU (all five losses by 5 pts or less) w/ a horrible Hail Mary loss to BYU in the home opener, this year they've rung up 95 points in a pair of blowout wins over Fresno State and Wyoming. I don't think Nebraska will have much difficulty moving the ball against an Oregon 'D' that has allowed 27 PPG so far to Cal Davis and Virginia. Last week, the Ducks surrendered 220 rush yards (not counting sack yardage) at over 7.0 YPC .

Oregon did not cover last week's home game vs. UVA as they won only 44-26 laying 24 points. They did have a chance to cover late, but a TD run was called back. I've already touched on the Ducks' defensive issue and with the offense you have to wonder how a first year FBS starter (transfer Dakota Prukop) will perform in his first "true" road game. Oregon might be 8-1 ATS L2 years in road games (4-0 LY as a dog), but as I said earlier, this program isn't to be feared like it once was. The Cornhuskers are "due" for a marquee win. They get it here. 10* Nebraska.

10* Under Yankees/Red Sox (1:05 ET): New York was robbed of a win and I was robbed of a winning Under play when Boston rallied for a five-run nine to take Thursday's opener 7-5. As far as playoff aspirations go, the Sox put a major nail in the Yanks coffin w/ a 7-5 victory Friday. That game went Over as well (this time I didn't play the game), so we've seen a small reversal of the trend that had seen the Under hit in 8 of 12 (8-3-1) previous matchups this season. Today, with the Red Sox big favorites and David Price on the hill, the hope is we'll avoid playing that bottom of the ninth which cost us two nights ago. I also don't see Boston scoring in the neighborhood of seven runs again here. Take the Under.

Price takes the hill Saturday afternoon in top form. He's allowed exactly two runs in four straight starts and has a 2.45 ERA and 0.682 WHIP his L3. Overall, it's seven consecutive quality starts where his ERA is 2.16 and his WHIP is 0.820. The team has won all seven of those starts, so again, the hope is we avoid playing those final three outs today. Price does not have outstanding career numbers vs. the Yankees, but I did have the Under the last time he faced then, and it cashed as he and Masahiro Tanaka combined to allow just four runs (NY won 3-1 on a Sunday night). Also, it's players such as Mark Teixeira that have previously given Price the most trouble. As we know, Teixeira is now a shell of the player he once was.

The Yankees will counter w/ a bit of an unknown commodity - Bryan Mitchell. He's made just two starts thus far. The first went well as he held Toronto scoreless over five innings (allowed just four hits). Last time out, not so much, as he gave up six runs in 2 1/3 to the Dodgers. But note that four of those runs were unearned.  Mitchell shouldn't count on much run support here as the Yanks are batting a collective .230 and facing Price. The Over might be 10-1 in Price's last 11 starts, but I'll call for that trend to come to an end today. 10* Under Yankees/Red Sox

10* Florida State (12:00 ET): This line has bounced around during the week, but I find the 'Noles to be a great value as a short favorite. Louisville is drawing a lot of attention for a couple of blowouts against overmatched opponents, spots where historically HC Bobby Petrino has been at his best. Charlotte and Syracuse were no different as the Cardinals rang up 132 points and 1508 total yards on them! But this is a massive step up in class where Petrino teams typically fail. In fact, if the last two years are any indication, Petrino should be worried about his own defense here. Florida State has scored 42 and 41 pts against them, gaining 265 and 177 yards above what L'ville allowed per game defensively those seasons. Overall, the Seminoles are 14-2 SU vs. Louisville. I have FSU making the CFP this year; thus I'll take them here. 

I rolled w/ the Noles in their season opener. Obviously, I expected them to win comfortably, but they really impressed me in how they turned a 28-13 halftime deficit into a 45-34 win. For the record, I believe Ole Miss is a better team than Louisville. Last week was in essence a bye week in Talahassee as they drew Charleston Southern (and an undermanned Charleston Southern at that), who was down TEN starters. That made for a 52-8 win where the Noles scored on their first 13 possessions! Now, this is a "true" road game (played Ole Miss in Orlando), but I wouldn't be too concerned about that as their only two road losses the L3 years came via a blocked FG return and to the #1 ranked team in the country at the time (Clemson). Keep an eye on this line as FSU has been a dog just TWICE in the last five years. So, again, great price especially w/ Jimbo Fisher being 3-0 SU all-time in ACC games where both teams come in ranked in the top 10. 

All the headlines this week have gone to Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, who has gotten himself into Heisman consideration after already accounting for 13 TD's in the first two games. But that came against two very bad defenses. The stop unit Jackson will face here is one that has allowed less than 20 PPG in five of Fisher's six years here. Though safety Derwin James is out, FSU is loaded enough through the 2-deep that they'll be fine. I won't be surprised if the best QB in this game turns out to be FSU's freshman Deondre Francois, who stepped into an excellent situation being surrounded by 10 returning starters. Francois certainly didn't look like a freshman in throwing for 400+ yards in his debut vs. Ole Miss. Louisville's defense allowed 426 total yds LW vs. Syracuse.  FSU RB Dalvin Cook went for 223 total yards LY vs. them. Calling for the better team to win straight up is not a stretch in my estimation! 10* Florida State

8* Temple (12:00 ET): This is a lot of points for Penn State to lay against an in-state rival that beat them SU last year, particularly coming off what was (to PSU) a more meaningful in-state rivalry game last week, which ended up being a heartbreaking defeat at Pitt. That 42-39 loss (closed as 3-pt dogs) saw the Nittany Lions rally all the way back from a 28-7 first half deficit, only to ultimately come up short. Thus, even as the favorite here, PSU won't be lacking for motivation (revenge!), especially on a Saturday afternoon home game where they'll honor Joe Paterno. But given LY's result, which was a 27-10 Temple win as six-point dogs, it's pretty tough to justify this number. Sure, the oddsmakers have adjusted slightly. But not enough in my estimation. As far the Owls' own motivation is concerned, let's not forget HC Matt Rhule is a PSU alum. Take the points.

Last year's outright win by the Owls snapped a streak of 31 consecutive losses to the Nittany Lions. It was the season opener and set in motion a historic season in Philly w/ Temple racing out to a 7-0 SU start and Top 25 ranking. They finished 10-4 SU and won the AAC East Division (lost bowl). They're one of those teams clearly earmarked for regression in 2016, but they can still lose close here and bring home the cash.  I don't know if anyone foresaw the shocking start this season got off to w/ a 28-13 outright loss to Army as 14-pt home favorites. A -3 turnover differential was the story there. The Owls did bounce back LW by drubbing Stony Brook 38-0 (allowed just 133 total yds). That's a virtual bye week, another big advantage for Temple given what PSU faced last week.

There was nothing flukish about LY's 27-10 win by the Owls at Lincoln Financial Field. They outgained the Nittany Lions 317-183 and the defense dominated w/ 10 sacks. It's said that Penn St HC James Franklin "likes" this year's QB Trace McSorley better than the disposed Christian Hackenberg, but we'll see how McSorely does against this defense. Penn State also has Michigan on deck next week. I just think that given the situation, I would not want to be laying more than a score w/ the Nittany Lions, who have already lost outright four times in Franklin's tenure. Temple, meanwhile, is 15-7 ATS as a dog under Rhule including 5-2 last year (four outright wins). 8* Temple

10* Under Cardinals/Giants (10:15 ET): It should be a "playoff-like atmosphere" all weekend long at AT&T Park as we have a potential preview of the NL Wild Card Game on our hands. Night one went to the home team w/ the Giants prevailing 6-2 on Thursday. That win keeps them in the "pole position" for the WC at 78-68. Right now, their opponent in the one-game playoff would be the Mets, whom the Cardinals are now a game behind in the standings. San Francisco has had a terrible second half to the season overall though and St. Louis has curiously been better on the road than at home. Therefore, no side play here, it's all about the total as I feel Under is the correct play in tonight's contest.

Johnny Cueto pretty much dominated the Cardinals lineup last night, limiting them to only five hits in a very strong complete game effort. The final 17 Cardinals' hitters that came up to bat were retired in order (seven 1-2-3 innings). Over the L7 games, St. Louis is scoring just 2.4 rpg w/ an awful .165 team batting average. They've been held to two runs or fewer in four of the last five games. Thus, SF starter Matt Moore should still find success, even if he's not quite as dominant at Cueto was last night. Were it not for an outing at hitter-friendly Coors Field on September 5th, we'd be looking at a really strong four-start stretch for Moore. Last time out, he outdueled Zack Grienke as he held Arizona to just two runs in 7 IP (Chase Field has been very hitter-friendly this year) and finished w/ a season high 11 K's. Moore's final two starts in August saw him allow just one run in 14 IP.

Certainly, Luke Weaver still qualifies as a bit of an unknown on the St. Louis side of things, but the early returns have been pretty strong. In six starts, he's yet to allow more than 3 ER! He's got good strikeout numbers (7+ in four of last five starts) and the Under is 4-1 the L5 times he's taken the mound.  Before going for six runs last night, it's not like the Giants' offense had been performing well. They scored only five runs total in the previous series, which was at home against San Diego. So I see Weaver continuing his string of solid efforts here. He and Moore keep this one Under the total. 10* Under Cardinals/Giants

8* UTSA (9:00 ET): TX-San Antonio saw HC Larry Coker surprisingly step down after a 3-9 SU finish LY. The Roadrunners certainly challenged themselves w/ a non-conference slate of Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Colorado State. While they lost all four of those games, they covered two and went on to go a respectable 3-5 SU in C-USA. New HC Frank Wilson didn't have to wait very long for his first win w/ the team beating Alabama State 26-13 in the season opener. But they followed that up w/ a 23-14 loss at Colorado State, who had just been humiliated by rival Colorado the week earlier. While, on paper, things don't look great again for UTSA this week, on paper is not where they play the games. The Roadrunners are catching Arizona State off an upset of Texas Tech last week (in Tempe) and I think are a bargain getting all these points.

This will be the fourth year in a row that UTSA is welcoming in a Power 5 conference school. They've yet to win in the three previous tries, but came closest two years ago against Arizona (lost only 26-23), who is obviously ASU's main rival. Despite the presence of RB Jarveon Williams, the Roadrunners ran for just one yard on the ground LW. Williams' was a 1,000+ yd back a year ago and has to do better here. Fortunately, he and the rest of the UTSA offense will be going up against an ASU defense which permitted over 600 total yards LW vs. TT. In their game vs. Colorado State LW, the Roadrunners were close most of the way, never trailing by more than 10 pts and it was a one-score game until a late Rams' FG (w/ 2:24 remaining) put things out of reach. 

I'm not as high on Arizona State as some others. The Sun Devils were a massive disappointment last year (6-7 SU finish), something I called for. While I expect improvement for 2016 (see last week), they do only have four returning starters on offense and 10 total. Most will be in awe of LW's point total and Kalen Ballage scoring eight touchdowns, but all that's done is serve to inflate the line. ASU was not a road favorite a single time last season; they've actually lost seven of their last eight "true" road openers straight up. 8* UTSA

6* Texas (8:05 ET): One of the more surprising results this week in MLB saw Oakland go to Kansas City and sweep a four-game series, effectively ending the Royals' postseason hopes in the process. The A's are by no means even mediocre, let alone good, so count me among those surprised by what they did at Kauffman Stadium Monday through Thursday. Yesterday's 14-5 punctuation mark, their third win by 8+ runs of the series, really stunned me. But like I said, this is not a good team. I'd say only Minnesota has been worse this year in the American League. It's a step up in class this weekend for the Athletics as they travel to Texas to take on the first place Rangers. I expect the A's to come back down to Earth, starting Friday.

I've had my doubts about the Rangers all season, but they're going to win the AL West and make the playoffs. Right now, they are in line for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. (Remember AL has homefield edge in World Series due to stupid ASG rule). Texas' previous series saw them take two of three from Houston, on the road. At home, this team has been much better as is evident by their 47-22 record here (only the Cubs have a better home record). They are on a 7-1 run as a ML home favorite in the -175 to -200 range. A nice edge for the Rangers here is they had Thursday off while Oakland did not.

Another edge Texas has tonight is Cole Hamels. After B2B poor efforts vs. Seattle, the southpaw rebounded by holding the Angels to two runs on four hits last Saturday. Those two games vs. Seattle mark the only starts since the All-Star Break where Hamels has allowed more than 3 ER. So he'll be just fine here. Oakland is just 16-23 when facing a southpaw starter this year (4.0 rpg). In three lifetime starts, Hamels ERA vs. the A's is 2.18. Meanwhile, a Rangers offense that already averages 5.5 rpg at home should simply "tee off" against Oakland's Kendall Graveman, who allowed eight runs in his last start. Two starts last year vs. Texas produced a 7.84 ERA and 1.742 WHIP for Graveman. The last time these teams met, it was a Rangers sweep (here in Arlington) and I for one would not be surprised if history repeated itself this weekend. 6* Texas

10* Rice (8:00 ET): Certainly, the odds do not cast a favorable light on Rice's chances Friday night against Baylor. But speaking of lights, ESPN will be on hand here and that should lead to the 30+ pt underdog being a little bit more motivated than usual here. It has certainly been a disappointing start to the season for David Baliff's Owls, who have lost by DD margins to both Western Kentucky (46-14) and Army (31-14). But both of those games did take place on the road. I was really disappointed by LW's result as I had the Owls plus the points and they even jumped out to an early 7-0 over the Cadets! But a week after being unable to stop the WKU passing attack, the defense was pretty impotent against Army's running game. Despite those two very disappointing setbacks, this is a lot of points and I'm going to take them! 

Baylor obviously had as tumultuous an offseason as any program in America. Rampant scandal and mismanagement resulted in the firing of Art Briles, the architect of the entire program here in Waco. Now Jim Grobe is stepping into a pretty brutal situation. Neither Northwestern State (55-7) nor SMU (40-13) were able to provide the Bears much resistance in the first two games, but it's notable that BU fell short of the oddsmakers' projections in both games. Ranked 21st in the country, I believe Baylor is getting a bit too much respect still. They were tied w/ SMU 6-6 at the half LW (trailed 6-0 at the end of the 1Q!) and RB Shock Linwood is battling a neck strain, leaving him at less than 100 percent. The interview that Briles gave ESPN last week certainly did this program no favors and could serve as a distraction for the team.  With the Big 12 opener on deck (vs. Ok State), this is a total lookahead for the Bears' players.

As for Rice, there is no lookahead here as this will be their first time hosting a ranked foe since 1997. Yes, they are 0-7 SU/ATS the L7 years vs. Baylor, including last year's humiliating 70-17 loss in Waco where they gave up almost 800 total yards. But consider the Owls were "only" 33-pt dogs for that game, on the road. That result has created a ton of value for this year's encounter and I'm going to exploit that as I know Rice is better than its shown the first two weeks. 10* Rice

8* Under Rays/Orioles (7:05 ET): The Rays beat the Orioles yday, knocking them back into a tie with Toronto for second place in the American League East (teams would play in the Wild Card Game if reg season ended today). I wasn't too surprised to see TB take last night's series opener as run differential says this is an underrated team. Despite being 20 games below .500, the Rays have only been outscored by 23 runs over the course of the season. Based on that run differential, you'd expect them to have 70 wins in the bag (actual win total is 63). That negative difference of -7 is the largest gap between expected and actual wins in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Baltimore has overachieved based on their only +28 run differential. They're 14 games above .500, but you'd "expect" them to only be six games over.

That all being said, I'm staying away from the side tonight as TB may have "gotten their win" last night and Baltimore's home record (45-26) is still to be respected. Instead, let's look at the total. Last night's game featured 13 runs scored (7-6 final), but based on the recent efforts of tonight's two starting pitchers, I'd be surprised if we see half that number in tonight's game. Chris Archer goes for the Rays and his TSR of 9-21 is highly misleading as he actually ranks 4th in the American League w/ 218 strikeouts. Last time out, it was a hard luck loss for him (against the Yankees) as he allowed just three runs on four hits (did give up B2B homers). Through the first five innings, he'd allowed just one hit. He's allowed five or fewer hits in five consecutive starts and has a 40-7 KW rate. He's allowed only 10 runs total his L4 starts, but that number should be way lower considering he's allowed only 18 hits (plus six walks). Archer's L3 starts have seen him turn in a 0.836 WHIP.

Baltimore's Ubaldo Jimenez is having his best stretch of the season right now. He's coming off four consecutive quality starts w/ a 2.83 ERA. Over his last three starts, his WHIP (0.75) is actually better than that of Archer! Last time out, he allowed only two runs and four hits at Detroit and the start before that was a CG effort against these Rays where he gave up only three runs (on just two hits!). In seven career starts vs. TB, Jiminez has a 2.89 ERA and 1.136 WHIP. Archer didn't pitch in the last series between these two teams, but earlier in the year did throw 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the O's. 8* Under Rays/Orioles

8* Toronto (10:05 ET): The Blue Jays are officially in trouble. Yesterday's loss to the Rays dropped them behind the Orioles in the AL East (now in third place) and they have only a precarious one-game lead over Detroit for the second Wild Card. Behind the Tigers are four other teams within five games. Therefore, a series with the out of contention Angels this weekend is a must win for Canada's only team. A sweep would be nice. The Angels were just swept (by Seattle) and have lost seven of eight overall. They are a team I was very low on at the start of the season (they were actually projected to finish .500!) and here they are, coming in at 19 games below .500. They scored all of two runs in the Seattle series. I'm on Toronto w/ J.A. Happ here.

Last year, Toronto "lapped" the rest of the league in terms of runs scored, but 2016 has seen them supplanted by division rival Boston in that department. Note the Jays still rank fifth among A.L. teams (8th overall) in runs scored. Underrated is the fact that they also are #2 in runs allowed (in the AL). A big reason for that has been the emergence of Happ, who has a 21-7 team start record after holding the Red Sox to just two runs and four hits his last time out. In terms of net units, Happ is among the top 10 pitchers to bet on in all of baseball (+11.0 units). Happ has NEVER beaten the Angels in six all-time tries, but remember what I said earlier ... this Halos team is not very good. They come in hitting a collective .172 the L7 games, scoring just 1.7 rpg. Happ has held opposing hitters to a .235 average for the year and should set a persona best for strikeouts in a season tonight.

The Blue Jays offense will face Daniel Wright, who has made three spot starts in 2016 (two while with Cincinnati) and none have gone particularly well. His LA debut came Saturday and he allowed four runs in 5 IP vs. Texas (allowed 2 HR's). After making only two starts for the sorry Reds, it's a real "sign of the times" that he remains in the Angels rotation here. Still winless, Wright has never lasted more than 5 1/3 and has given up 13 runs total in 13 1/3 IP. That works out to a 6.75 ERA and 1.650 WHIP. The Angels are 0-10 in home games this season when priced between +125 and +150 on the money line!  8* Toronto

10* Buffalo (8:25 ET): There's been a major line move here for this AFC East battle. The Bills, who opened as two-point favorites and were quickly bet up to -3, are now 1-pt dogs (at home) due to the uncertain status of WR Sammy Watkins. Classic overreaction by the public, in my opinion. The Bills swept the Jets last year, winning both games by the same 22-17 score. The second cost the Jets a playoff berth (game was played Week 17), so obviously some will be fascinated by the revenge angle here, especially considering Buffalo has actually won and covered the last five meetings. Of course, we saw how the big revenge angle played out last Thursday in Carolina-Denver. For the record, some are anticipating Watkins playing here, but regardless if he does or not, these Thursday night games always seem to favor the home team on a short week. I'm taking Buffalo at a tremendous price.

I've earmarked the Jets for regression in 2016, so I was not the least bit surprised to see them lose in Week 1 (at home) to the Bengals. They were outgained 381-340 in the 23-22 loss, which did come on a last second FG. But the offense never really got the passing game going (188 yards), which was my concern w/ Ryan Fitzpatrick coming into camp late following an extended holdout. Quite frankly, I'm stunned to see the Jets get this much love from the public. As a "true" road favorite LY (excluding London game vs. Miami and neutral site game vs. Giants), they were 0-3-1 ATS, losing outright three times! One of those was obviously the final game at Buffalo.

Now the Bills' offense was pretty putrid in its own right (just 160 total yds!) in the 13-7 loss to Baltimore in Week 1. Many, myself included, had high hopes for this unit coming into 2016. At home, against a familiar foe, I expect QB Tyrod Taylor to play much better this week. The silver lining of last week was Rex Ryan's defense looked a lot better than it did in 2015. They allowed just 83 yards rushing on 28 carries, which is key here as the Jets' passing game is not dynamic. The Bills also covered their final four regular season home games last year. If they can beat the Jets on the road in a Thursday night game (did so last year), then they can do the same at home this year. 10* Buffalo

10* Cincinnati (7:30 ET): This is a game I actually circled in the offseason. Fool me once, Houston, shame on you. Fool me twice, then I guess it's shame on me. The now 6th ranked Cougars caught me by surprise when they knocked off Oklahoma in the season opener, 33-23, as 13.5-pt underdogs. Note that game really swung on a missed FG that was returned for a TD by UH and also I underestimated what a big deal it would be for them to play in NRG Stadium (just five miles off campus). That makes this the first "true" road game of the campaign. Houston's only loss last year occurred out on the road, at UConn as 10-pt chalk. Yes, I know QB Greg Ward Jr did not play in that loss, which ended up costing the team a shot at the CFP. But Ward also sat out last week due to a sore shoulder. The team obviously didn't need him to beat Lamar (won 42-0), but him being less than 100% means trouble against a Cincy squad that is 27-5 SU at home the L6 seasons. Take the points.

I'm pretty high on Tommy Tuberville's Bearcats this year. This team was much better last year than it's 7-6 SU record. Though Houston, Navy and Temple all won 10+ games and Memphis (9-4) had a program-defining season, it was actually Cincinnati that led the entire AAC in YPG differential at +167.4! The biggest problem for the Bearcats in 2015 was turnovers. They were -19 in that department, but already we've started to see that number start to turn through two games this year. They were +5 in TO's LW at Purdue, a 38-20 win that I thought was impressive as a lot folks were actually betting AGAINST the Bearcats. It was impressive in the sense that it was the program's first road win over a Big 10 school in six decades. They also led Purdue 31-7 in the third quarter.

Getting Cincy at this price is simply a tremendous value. They're a perfect 2-0 ATS the L2 years as a home dog, including an outright upset of Miami FL (on a Thursday night) last season. They also cashed as nine-point dogs at Houston LY (lost 33-30) while outgaining them 589-427. Houston has not beaten Cincy B2B times since a five-game win streak that ended in the early 1970's. The L3 meetings between these two have been decided by a total of 18 points. The Bearcats may be down their top six pass catchers from last season, but LW vs. Purdue (512 yds) marked the NINTH time since the start of last season that the offense gained at least 500 total yds. I won't go so far as to call for the outright upset here, but it's definitely a possibility as Thursday night home teams almost always come ready to play!  10* Cincinnati.

10* Under Yankees/Red Sox (7:10 ET): A little over a month ago, one could have reasonably assumed that this latest edition of baseball's most famous rivalry would carry little in the way of actual meaning. New York was a clear "seller" at the trade deadline and thus there was no reason to really believe they'd be a factor down the stretch. But here we are in September and the team wearing pinstripes has caught fire with eight victories in the last 11 games overall. They did lose via shutout yday (2-0 to the Dodgers) after winning in shutout fashion (3-0) Tuesday. With the stakes so high and the teams so familiar w/ one another, I'm on the Under here. That bet has gone 8-3-1 in all Yankees-Red Sox games this season.

Boston also happened to be shutout yday as they lost 1-0 to the Orioles. I also played this team Under the total on Tuesday, which ended up being a winning ticket, as they fell 6-3 (total was 9.5). In my analysis two days ago, I made note that while certainly prolific, the Red Sox offense had largely been "feast or famine" of late. Tonight, I expect it to be the latter again as they go up against Masahiro Tanaka. The notion that Tanaka only pitches well when on five or more days rest is quickly being dispelled as the Japanese superstar worked on only four (days rest) his last time out and gave up one run and five hits in 7 1/3 IP. He also set a season-high w/ 10 K's. Over his L7 starts, Tanaka has a 1.94 ERA and 0.907 WHIP. His last five outings have all been quality as he's surrendered just five runs total in 33 1/3 IP. In nine career starts vs. Boston, Tanaka has a 1.132 WHIP and the last time he faced them, he allowed only one run and three hits in six innings of work.

The Yankees have seen the Under cash in 9 of 13 games this month after the respective shutouts the past two days. A big reason for that is a .219 team batting average over the last week. Facing Eduardo Rodriguez tonight does not appear to be a favorable matchup. Not only does Rodriguez own a 3.26 ERA and 0.879 WHIP his L3 starts, but the Yankees average less than four runs per game (3.9) against LH starters. The southpaw Rodriguez has allowed more than 3 ER only one time in his L10 starts and not coincidentally, the Under is 9-1 during that run. The Under is a perfect 6-0 all-time when Rodriguez faces the Yankees and he has a 1.88 ERA and 1.096 WHIP against them. He's allowed one run in 7 IP both times he's faced them in 2016, giving up just seven hits total. 10* Under Yankees/Red Sox

8* Detroit (1:10 ET): Minnesota did win a game on Tuesday (8-1), but overall the Tigers have had their number in 2016 w/ a 12-3 head to head record. That includes taking Monday's series opener (4-2) and last night's rubber match (9-6). They'll look to make it three of four this afternoon in the Motor City before heading down to Cleveland for a big weekend series. I like their chances a lot today. The Twins were arguably the first team to permanently fall out of contention this season as they never recovered from an 0-9 start. They are likely to go "wire to wire" as the worst team in the American League as they currently sit at 54-92 w/ a -143 run differential. Both are easily AL worsts. An 18-35 record in day games does them no favors here either.

Monday, I was on the Under in this series. That cashed, but despite not playing the total either of the L2 days, I'm a little bit surprised to see that Tigers' pitching has given up a total of 14 runs. This afternoon, things fall on Mike Pelfrey, who has not pitched since July 31st due to a bad back. All-time, Pelfrey does a 3-0 team start record vs. Minnesota (2-0 in '16). His last start did go well w/ him allowing no runs in five innings. That ended up being an 11-0 win over Dallas Keuchel and the Astros. Though Pelfrey might seem a bit shaky to you in this spot, rest assured that the Tigers are clearly the better team overall. They enter Thursday one-half back of Toronto in what is a loaded Wild Card race (seven teams separated by five games). Detroit can't afford to drop this one. By the way, they are 31-22 in day games this season. They are also 19-7 as a ML home fave of -125 to -150. Good price here.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has little reason to care here. They are 29-62 off a loss and hand the baseball to Hector Santiago, who has actually been effective in each of his L3 starts, but also didn't fare too well in his lone start vs. Detroit this year. Back on May 31st, he allowed six runs to them. While the Twins actually won that game (11-9), I don't look for their offense to be as prolific today as over the L7 games they're batting just a collective .222. 8* Detroit

9* Over Rockies/D'backs (9:40 ET): Take Colorado out of Coors Field and we know that the amount of overall scoring in their games will go down. Thanks to the thin air, their home games average a whopping 12.4 rpg. On the road, that average drops to just 8.7 rpg. But, put any team here in Chase Field and you're bound to see a high-scoring affair. Arizona actually allows a slightly higher number of runs per game at home than Colorado does (6.2 to 6.1!). As a result, D'backs' home games see an average of 11.2 rpg scored this year, second to only Rockies' home games. The first two games of this series, both Arizona wins, have seen totals of 21 and 15 runs scored. Might as well go with the Over again as the D'backs look to complete the sweep.

Colorado won't even have one of its better pitchers (either of the two Tylers, Chatwood or Anderson) on the mound Wednesday. Instead, it will Jeff Hoffman, whose four starts thus far have produced some pretty ugly results. Last time out was quite the odd statline as all seven runs allowed were unearned in what turned out to be a 14-1 loss at San Diego. The reason that they were unearned was b/c of a two-out error made by his shortstop. But he still did give up all those runs (in just 2 2/3 IP) and prior to that had allowed 13 runs in 15 IP! Not to be outdone, Arizona's Rubby De La Rosa lasted only two innings his last time out, which marked his return from a 3.5 month stint on the DL due to a right elbow strain. He'll be on a strict pitch count, which means we'll see plenty of the D'backs bullpen, which has a had a horrendous season to say the least (5.17 ERA, 1.540 WHIP).

Oddsmakers simply cannot make the total high enough when these two teams play. Tonight's marks the 19th and final meeting of the season. The first 18 have seen an average of 13.7 rpg scored with both teams right under 7.0 (Colorado 6.94, Arizona 6.83). Eight times the Rockies have scored at least eight runs off Arizona pitching in 2016, including Monday's 12-9 loss. Only once in those 18 games have they not scored at least four times. Arizona, meanwhile, has scored at least six runs in each of the L10 head to head meetings and have recorded 10+ hits in 13 straight matchups!  9* Over Rockies/D'backs

10* Miami (7:10 ET): On paper, it's a tremendous pitching matchup tonight in Atlanta with Jose Fernandez going up against Julio Teheran. But I feel the former has a big advantage going into this one. Fernandez may not be the same pitcher on the road that he is at home, but the fact he hasn't allowed ANY runs in three of his last four starts has to account for something. Teheran has been victimized by poor luck more than anything as is evident by a 7-19 team start record despite having a 3.01 ERA and 1.026 WHIP. Miami won yday here at Turner Field, 7-5, and while they're just 5-9 this season head to head with the Braves, Atlanta's 24-47 home record remains baseball's worst. I've got the Marlins here.

Fernandez did not fare well the last time he faced the Braves. He gave up nine runs (only six earned) in 5 2/3 and the Marlins obviously lost that day, 9-1. But, earlier in the year, he had tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball against them. That last start seems to be the aberration as in eight career outings, Fernandez has a 2.96 ERA and 0.910 WHIP against Atlanta. Remember that the Braves rank 29th in all of MLB in runs scored, not to mention 30th (last) in slugging. Last time out, Fernandez spoiled the return of Clayton Kershaw by tossing seven shutout innings of three-hit ball while matching a season-high w/ 14 K's. In 20 of his 27 starts this year, Fernandez has allowed 3 ER or less. There have been 15 times where he's allowed 1 or 0 ER! For the year, he's second in the NL in strikeouts w/ 238. 

Though Teheran has pitched well, the bottom line w/ him is that he currently ranks in the bottom seven as far as pitchers to bet on as that 7-19 TSR has resulted in a loss of 11.2 units at the betting window. He did allow five runs and 11 hits the last time he faced Miami. The big difference between his last start vs. the Marlins and Fernandez's vs. the Braves is that Teheran's performance was more in line with what we've seen throughout his career. He has a 6.00 ERA in two starts against them this year. Meanwhile, Fernandez's bad showing the last time was a byproduct of a career-worst inning that we shouldn't see a repeat of anytime soon. The Marlins are 4-1 this season as a road favorite of -150 to -175 on the ML, virtually all of those games coming w/ Fernandez on the bump. He was a -265 favorite the last time he started at Turner Field, so this is a great value!  10* Miami

10* Under Cubs/Cardinals (1:45 ET): Today will not be the final time the Cubs and Cardinals play in 2016. The long-time rivals meet again next weekend in Wrigley Field and by that time Chicago certainly should have the NL Central locked up. St. Louis' fate remains a far bigger question mark at this time. The Redbirds did win yday, 4-2, but still are one-half game behind the Mets and a full game behind the Giants for the two Wild Card spots. The Cards being at home actually DISCOURAGES a play on them here (just 33-40 at Busch this season) as does them having to go up against Jon Lester. Scoring has been scarce in the first two games of the series, therefore I'm on the Under for the rubber match. The Cubs have been held to four runs or less in five of their last six games.

Lester is a key ally for the Under play here. I played his last start Under the total and it ended up being a 2-0 win over the Astros. Lester threw seven shutout innings, allowing seven hits and he didn't walk anybody (7 K's). It was his EIGHTH straight start allowing 2 ER or fewer! During that time, he's allowed all of seven runs TOTAL (in 53 2/3 IP!) and is 6-0 w/ a 1.17 ERA. One of those was against St. Louis and he allowed just two runs and five hits in 6 IP. That game (Lester got a no-decision in 4-3 Cubs' win) as well as his five subsequent starts have all stayed Under the total. In fact, the L3 Lester starts have seen final scores of: 0-1, 2-1 and 2-0 for the Cubs. His ERA and WHIP in those games are a ridiculous 0.41 and 0.773 respectively. In 10 career starts vs. St. Louis, his TSR is only 5-5, but his ERA is 2.27 and his WHIP is 0.995. Remember that the Cubs have given up by far the fewest runs in all of baseball this season. They've held opponents to a .210 batting average! 

Lester will be opposed by Carlos Martinez, who has arguably been St. Louis' best pitcher this season. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts, a stretch which began w/ him being on the losing end of that aforementioned 4-3 game opposite Lester on 8.11. Both pitched well and I actually expect Martinez to be even better here as he has pitched well in the daytime all season long. The double play has also been Martinez's friend as he has induced an NL-high 32 of them this season. Cardinals' home games average fewer than 8.0 rpg this season. 10* Under Cubs/Cardinals

6* Toronto (12:37 ET): I've been on the Blue Jays in both games of this series so far and had mixed results. They won Monday, 3-2, but then lost last night, 6-2. This leaves them tied with Baltimore for second place in the AL East and in Wild Card position, two games clear of the Tigers. Meanwhile, the Rays are 22 games below .500 and officially eliminated from playoff contention. Thus, from a motivation perspective, there is no question as to who SHOULD have the edge Wednesday afternoon. While TB has been quite competitive head to head w/ Toronto this year (10-8 overall!), I'll reiterate that they are not a good road team (26-43) and this being a day game is a big edge for the Jays as they have compiled a 32-23 afternoon record.

Wednesday's scheduled starter for Toronto is Marco Estrada. There's no running from the fact that he's struggled of late. He's also 0-2 this season vs. Tampa Bay. But I have reason to believe we'll get a quality outing from him today. While winless this season vs. the Rays, Estrada does own a 2.43 ERA and superb 0.840 WHIP lifetime against them (five starts). So he's certainly "due" for better results. Looking back, 15 of Estrada's first 20 starts this season were quality. So I assume this has just been a rough patch for him. Mixed in was a recent effort where he held Baltimore to just one run and four hits on 8.29. I'm calling for something similar to that here. Last time out (vs. Boston) marked a season-low in IP (2 1/3), so he should bounce back.

Remember that Toronto is actually second in the American League in runs allowed while Tampa Bay is third from the bottom in runs scored. This price range certainly tells a story as the Blue Jays are 22-8 the L30 times they have been a ML home favorite of -175 to -200 while the Rays are 8-18 L26 times in the +150 to +175 range on the road. Alex Cobb will be making just his third start since returning from Tommy John surgery and it's his second time facing the Jays. While he pitched well the first time around, that was at home. He has a career 5.56 ERA at Rogers Centre. Toronto is 37-27 off a loss this season. 6* Toronto

10* Cleveland (8:10 ET): The Indians entered yday only two back in the win column as they try and chase down Texas for the best record in the American League. Unfortunately, Monday's results did not go as the Tribe had hoped. Not only did they fall 11-4 to the White Sox, but the Rangers pulled off one of their patented one-run victories (now 32-10 in one-run games TY!). An eye must also be kept on Boston here as they trail Cleveland by just two games. Tonight is a unique opportunity to get the AL Central leaders at 'plus money' (due to the pitching matchup). While starting pitching is obviously a key component in handicapping MLB, it's not everything and Cleveland has clearly been the better of these two teams this season. Take them Tuesday.

Realistically, the White Sox are not contenders any longer. They are one of just five AL teams to currently have a losing record. They'd just dropped two in a row to Kansas City prior to this series. While having Jose Quintana on the hill is what gives them the slight edge tonight in the linesmakers eyes, note he has pitched poorly his last two times out. He's allowed 11 runs in 11 2/3 IP and has given up three home runs. In terms of wins and losses, Quintana has not fared well against the Indians in 2016 as his TSR is 0-3 and the year long story of no run support has been in full effect as his offense has supplied him with only six runs in those three games. One night after scoring 11 runs, I expect the White Sox lineup to regress severely. The team has lost the last five times after it scored 10+ runs the previous game.

Trevor Bauer will pitch tonight for the Indians. Over his L7 starts, he is 4-1 (6-1 TSR) w/ a 3.30 ERA and 1.114 WHIP. That's despite a subpar effort his last time out where he still got the win over Houston. Prior to that he'd allowed 3 ER or less in five of six starts. The last time Bauer faced the White Sox, he beat Quintana thanks to allowing only one run and four hits in 7 IP. That's actually the ONLY time he has faced them in 2016. For his career, he has a 6-2 TSR vs. Chicago w/ a 3.21 ERA and 1.280 WHIP. I like the better team to bounce back from a loss in yday's series opener. 10* Cleveland

10* Under Orioles/Red Sox (7:10 ET): The home team won in a rout Monday, 12-2, thereby increasing its lead over Baltimore to three full games in the American League East. This is the tightest knit division in the sport right now w/ four teams separated by just five games. But, to me, Boston has clearly emerged as the best of the bunch. Thanks to the #1 offense in the sport, their YTD run differential of +183 is easily an American League best and is probably a sign that more positive results are on the horizon. For Tuesday, however, I'm laying off the side and turning my attention to the total. Following the Red Sox offensive outburst last night, I feel there's some substantial value on the Under given the pitching matchup.

Boston has scored double digit runs in half of its previous ten games, which is just awesome. They've scored a total of 38 runs the L4 games alone with 11+ in each of their three victories. But it should be pointed out that they were held to only two in the one loss. It's interesting in that it's been very "feast or famine" at the plate for them during this 7-3 stretch as they've scored a total of three runs in the three losses. Tonight's starter Drew Pomeranz has seen 20 of his 27 starts this year stay Under and that includes the vast majority of them since coming over from San Diego. The Under is 8-1 his L9 outings including a perfect 5-0 the last five. He's allowed 2 ER or less seven times in that nine-start stretch and at the same time the prolific Boston offense never seems to score for him. They have not scored more than four runs in any of those last nine Pomeranz' starts!

Dylan Bundy will get the call for Baltimore as he looks to bounce back from a second disappointing showing in the L3 outings. He allowed five runs in a loss to Tampa Bay last Wednesday, but the start before that one he didn't allow any runs (in 5 2/3 IP). Bundy's 1st time facing Boston didn't go particularly well, but note the 8-1 loss had a total of 8.5, so the value becomes apparent when checking the current line. The O's are actually a top four Under team in all of baseball (76-64-3 in all games) and that includes a 60% mark in division tilts (35-23-2). 10* Under Orioles/Red Sox

5* Toronto (7:05 ET): Monday may not have been a perfect result for the Blue Jays (as the Red Sox won as well), but with both the Orioles and Yankees dropping games, it was pretty good. I was on the Jays, so I was certainly left happy. They beat the Rays 3-2 in somewhat of a spirited opener (benches cleared) and as indicated by the somewhat sizable money line here, I think they can win fairly easily again tonight. While competitive (run diff of only -35, despite being 23 games under .500), Tampa Bay is the one team in the AL East w/o a winning record, so that's a big bonus for Toronto drawing them this week. As I said yday, getting the Rays "North of the Border" is a real plus given their poor 25-43 road record. Go w/ the home team for a second straight night.

Tampa has dropped seven of nine dating back to a loss at home to Toronto on September 4th. Considering they're 23 games below .500, I do not anticipate an inspired finish to the season. They were officially eliminated from playoff contention w/ last night's loss. Tonight, they turn to Drew Smyly, who has struggled of late. Over his L3 starts, Smyly has a 6.75 ERA and 1.636 WHIP. He comes off B2B shaky showings vs. Baltimore where he allowed a total of 10 runs in a combined 8 2/3 innings of work. Smyly has pitched well in the past here in Toronto, including a pair of wins in 2016, but w/ a 5.60 ERA and 1.494 WHIP on the road for the season, I do not see that trend continuing. It should also be stated that TB is just 28-53 this season when taking on an opponent w/ a winning record.

Toronto is two games back of Boston in the division. A sweep here could be potentially huge w/ the Red Sox currently engaged with the Orioles. Though winless in his L4 starts, including a loss at Tampa Bay on 9.2, Marcus Stroman is a pitcher that I like a lot. He gets the starting nod here tonight. Last time out, he received no run support (literally!) as the Jays were shut out 2-0 by the Yankees. But Stroman had 8 K's vs. only 1 walk in that one and looked impressive. Fifteen times, he got a hitter to swing and miss. Run support has been an ongoing issue for Stroman, but provided he gets it here, he should have no problem defeating one of the lowest scoring lineups in the American League. 5* Toronto

10* Over Rams/49ers (10:15 ET): There were 13 NFL games played yday. Only two had a total lower than this one. In today's NFL, an O/U line in the low 40's is quite low and the reality of the matter is that it doesn't take much to send it over. We saw this is the Minnesota-Tennessee game yday, which had the lowest O/U line on the board and went Over thanks to a pair of defensive scores. In the second game of tonight's MNF doubleheader, we've got two bad teams, and while the defenses are thought to be the respective strengths, I think this one ends up higher scoring than expected. Both Rams vs. 49ers' matchups stayed Under last season, as did 12 of the Rams' 16 games overall, but that's helped create value in going the other way here. Take the Over.

There is much hoopla surrounding the Rams' return to Los Angeles, but the bottom line is that this has been a mediocre (at best!) team throughout Jeff Fisher's tenure. I don't expect substantial improvement in 2016 despite what you may have seen on "Hard Knocks." Fisher is clearly desperate to hold onto his job. Why else would he forsake starting #1 overall DC Jared Goff in favor of Case Keenum? As far as the growth of the team goes, I don't agree with that decision at all, but at least it probably helps our cause here. Goff struggled in the preseason and at least Keenum has NFL starting experience. Keenum may be the one better suited to putting more points on the board in these early season games. He can of course simply hand the ball off to Todd Gurley, who ran for 133 yards in his lone game against this defense last season. San Francisco allowed 124 YPG rushing a season ago. 

Another QB decision I don't agree with is the 49ers going w/ Blaine Gabbert over Colin Kaepernick. "The book has been written" with Gabbert and his record as a starter tells the story. But, I do concede that he did have his best day as a pro against these Rams in the season finale last year. There, he threw for 354 yards in a 19-16 win. I just can't envision the 49ers' offense not being better than it was a year ago. Remember, Chip Kelly has come on board and that means tempo. It also may mean his own defense could tire by the end of this game, because the time of possession never seems to be in his team's favor. The ticket count on the Under here is really high, which is very unusual, given that Over is typically the public play. That too has swayed me to the Over. 10* Over Rams/49ers

10* Seattle (10:05 ET): The Mariners come off a sweep of the lowly A's and have won five in a row overall. But there's still plenty of work to be done here as they trail the two Wild Card teams, Toronto and Baltimore, by 3.5 games. There's also the Yankees, Tigers and Astros that they'd have to jump over to get into playoff position. So any kind of "let up" against the Angels here to start the week would be ill-timed. The M's have only managed to split 16 games against the Halos this season, but I've got them in the series opener here as it's not like LA is in strong form right now (had lost four in a row before winning Sunday).

Three times in the L10 games, Seattle has scored 11 or more runs. The first time was w/ tonight's starter Ariel Miranda on the mound. That was an 11-8 win over these Angels. Since then, they put 14 runs on the board against Texas and 14 runs on the board against Oakland. Pitching has also held up its end of the bargain, allowing three runs or less in every game during this five-game win streak. In his last start, all three runs Miranda allowed were unearned in an 8-3 win over Texas. He's actually been favored on the money line four of his last five starts, so this is a pretty good value. Seattle actually has the fourth best run differential in the entire American League right now (+39).

The Angels has not done much over the L5 games, scoring three runs or fewer four times. That lack of support would likely mean trouble for Ricky Nolasco, tonight's starter. Nolasco did throw a CG shutout on 8.31, but that was against the Reds. Then he faced the A's his last time out, so that's two last place opponents in a row. Nolasco did take a loss when he faced Seattle last month. I just have faith in Seattle staying in playoff contention while I see little life being in the Angels down the stretch. 10* Seattle

full analysis soon

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays did not have a good weekend nor have they had a good start to September. After dropping two of three to the Red Sox, they now find themselves two games in back in the AL East. Overall, they are just 2-7 this month. But the chance for a turnaround is now "on the table" with a visit from the last place Rays. Granted, I've made the case before that Tampa Bay is better than its record and that probably still holds true. But they'd dropped six of seven overall prior to Sunday's 4-2 win over the Yankees. Surprising is the fact that TB is 9-7 head to head vs. Toronto in 2016. That includes taking two of three on Labor Day weekend. But that last series took place at "The Trop." On the road, the Rays have been very bad as in 25-42. Go w/ Toronto here.

Typically, the Jays have been strong off a loss this year as they are 36-27 in that role. They'll hand the baseball to Francisco Liriano tonight as he looks to turn in what would be a third straight solid effort. On August 19th in Cleveland, all Liriano gave up was a single unearned run in six innings of work. One week later at Minnesota, he allowed only two hits in five innings, but somehow got tagged for four runs (did walk four batters). Interestingly, the Jays still won that game handily. This will be Liriano's first start in September, so he's certainly well rested. He has worked twice out of the bullpen recently. His last appearance saw him deliver two scoreless innings agianst the Yankees (allowed just one hit).

Toronto's offense at least woke up Sunday. They scored eight runs, but it wasn't enough to beat the Red Sox. It marked the first time in 23 games this year where the Jays scored 8+ times and still lost. Similar production should certainly be enough to beat the Rays, however. Tampa Bay comes in ranked in the bottom four in the AL in runs scored for the season. Toronto will face Jake Odorizzi here and the Rays' righty is coming off a terrible showing last Tuesday vs. Baltimore where he surrendered seven runs in only four innings of work. Odorizzi allowed four runs in 5 1/3 IP the last time he faced Toronto, which ended up as a 7-5 loss. 8* Toronto

8* New England 1st Half (8:30 ET): Please note that this is a 1st half play only. The Patriots could probably be excused for losing this one. Not only is Tom Brady suspended, but Rob Gronkowski is out as well. Gronk would have obviously been Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite target, so NE definitely looks to be "up against it" here in Week 1, visiting a team that went 13-3 SU a year ago. Both of these teams' 2015 seasons actually ended on Championship Weekend.  If there's one thing I've learned through the years, it's never to doubt Bill Belichick as an underdog, but this time comes w/ a caveat. It's a first half play only as I think Garoppolo and company start stronger than expected while the Cardinals won't be quite as dominant as people may think.

There are some signs pointing down for Arizona this year. They went 6-1 SU in one-score games a year ago, which typically signifies regression is coming the following campaign. Keeping your starting QB healthy is paramount for every team in this league, but especially this one. Carson Palmer is now 36 and while he's coming off a career year, I seriously doubt he'll be able to maintain 2015's numbers. Last season did not end well, and granted Palmer was banged up, but a 49-15 loss at Carolina in the NFC Championship Game was not a "good look."  Because of the Brady news, this line has obviously moved significantly and as a result it has created some opportunity and value on the other side. I believe that opportunity lies in the first half. 

Over the last three seasons, New England is 6-1 STRAIGHT UP and ATS as a dog. That's really incredible. It's been my experience that the public often overreacts to personnel absences, such as the one w/ Brady here. Granted, Brady and Gronk both being out probably does justify the line moving as much as it has, but I still expect the Pats to keep this one close for at least a half. Quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if they had the halftime lead. Note that in the first 15 weeks of last season, there was only ONE game that New England trailed by more than a single point. There were three times last year where Arizona rallied from a halftime deficit to win the game. 8* 1st Half New England

10* Under Cubs/Astros (8:05 ET): As alluded to in the promo for this pick, I was on the Under when these teams played Friday night. That was a 2-0 win for the Cubs behind Jon Lester. The best team in baseball lost last night though and again it was low-scoring. In fact, the Cubs' last three games have all seen the winning team score two runs or fewer and they've been on the losing end of two of those. So with those results and the fact Jake Arrieta is pitching tonight, I look for runs to again be few and far between in the series finale w/ Houston. The Astros happen to rank near the top of the American League in run suppression as well. Their starter, Michael Fiers, has been much better when pitching at home this season. Take the Under.

Arrieta needs no introduction. Last year's Cy Young winner is having another excellent campaign, even if his numbers don't quite match 2015's production. He actually leads the NL in wins (16) and is top seven in both ERA (2.84) and WHIP (1.046). His last two starts have been uncharacteristically subpar, although the team was able to overcome him allowing six runs on 8.29 vs. Pittsburgh. That's certainly not the kind of result I'm looking for here. Last time out, he took the loss due to allowing all three runs (one unearned) in a loss to the Giants. Still, that game stayed Under and the last time Arrieta pitched on the road, he threw eight shutout innings of two-hit ball. Interestingly, that one start vs. Pittsburgh when he allowed six runs, he did so on only five hits. He's allowed just 11 hits total his L3 starts.

The Cubs, by far and away, are #1 in fewest runs allowed at just 3.4 per game. Opponents are batting just .211 against them for the year. The problem though is that over the L7 games, thei own offense is hitting a collective .190 at the plate. As mentioned above, Fiers has been much better at home than on the road this year for the Astros. Although it should be pointed out that he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in four straight starts and two of those came outside of Minute Maid Park. Road teams average just 3.4 rpg for the season here at Minute Maid. Make it a clean sweep for the Under in this series! 10* Under Cubs/Astros

8* LA Dodgers (1:10 ET): On Friday, the Marlins spoiled Clayton Kershaw's return to the mound by beating the Dodgers 4-1. Of course, it helped that they had their own ace, Jose Fernandez, pitching. Fernandez outdueled Kershaw and his 14 K's helped snap LA's five-game win streak. But Dodger Blue quickly bounced back Saturday w/ a 5-0 shutout and it appears as if all the key edges are in their favor for Sunday afternoon's rubber match. Miami didn't even get a runner on base yday against Rich Hill. Quite frankly, they were fortunate that he was pulled after seven innings. This being a day game favors LA as they are 27-12 in the afternoon while the Fish have a losing record. Yes, the Marlins swept the Dodgers early in the year at Chavez Ravine, but that was April and there's no doubt who the better team is now. 

Kershaw and then Hill's perfection has to have Miami hitters wondering "what's next?" What's next is Kenta Maeda, who has a 0.953 WHIP in 13 road starts this year. He's allowed 3 ER or less in eight consecutive starts, including just one on three hits his last time out, a 10-2 win over Zack Greinke and Arizona. So a lineup that's scored all of five runs in the L3 games looks to be up against it here. Again, it was just two hits for Miami yday and no baserunners against the starter, who was pulled prematurely. Over the L7 games, Dodgers' pitching has allowed just 18 runs total.

Miami will go with Jose Urena, who has been in the rotation ever since the All-Star Break. He's been okay overall, but remains winless at home due to a 6.00 ERA. He allowed four runs his last time out, here at home, and that was against Philadelphia. The Phillies are the lowest scoring team in all of MLB. Right now, it appears as if the Marlins' season is on the brink as they're two games below .500 and realistically have little shot at the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have built a four-game lead in the NL West. That 27-12 record the Dodgers have in day games is MLB's best.  8* LA Dodgers

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Though the line has come down in the wake of the (season-ending) injury to Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater, this play is absolutely still valid. I had Minnesota regressing anyway this season, so the Bridgewater injury now basically ensures that will happen. Meanwhile, the Titans can only go up after finishing tied for the worst record in the league last year (3-13 SU). What we have here is a battle of the teams that finished w/ the best (Minnesota) and worst (Tennessee) ATS records last year. The Vikings were 14-3 against the number, including a cover in their playoff loss to Seattle, while the Titans were just 4-11-1. Some good old fashioned regression to the mean starts here in Week 1. I expect a SU win by the home team here, but take the points if you can get them.

Minnesota jumped from 7 to 11 wins last year and wound up winning the NFC North. HC Mike Zimmer has certainly built this team "the right way," but there's no sugarcoating the impact of the Bridgewater injury. Yes, RB Adrian Peterson was the driving force of the offense last season, but he also benefited from having 2014 off (suspension). Now at age 31, don't be surprised to see a dropoff in production, especially w/ Shaun Hill now being his quarterback. I thought the trade for Sam Bradford was not a necessity, but rather a disaster, considering what they had to give up. Regression was inevitable for this Vikings team as they were actually outgained on a per game basis last year. The acquisition of Bradford won't counteract that. Minnesota has also been a little "lucky" in the sense that they've gone 3-0 in OT games the L2 years. That's the best such record in the league during that time.

Tennessee "earned" the #1 overall draft choice w/ that 3-13 SU record a year ago, but traded out of the spot and quite frankly ripped Los Angeles off blind. The haul of draft picks the Titans got back in return will help this team improve over the long-term. Of course, one of the reasons they were able to trade out of that spot is they already have QB Marcus Mariota, who is back to full health after missing five games in his rookie campaign. The team didn't win any of the five games Mariota failed to finish. Though we think of the Titans as a bad team and they were outgained by roughly 30 YPG last year, that's only seven YPG worse than the Vikings! This team's luck is also due to improve after going a combined 3-11 SU in one-score games the L2 seasons. I like the addition of RB DeMarco Murray for the offense. Mike Mularkey may not have been the most inspired hire as HC, but the Titans steal this one. 8* Tennessee

10* Over Bucs/Falcons (1:00 ET): A crazy thing happened w/ Atlanta last year - they stayed Under in each of the L12 games! That includes both against division rival Tampa Bay, a 23-20 loss at home and a 23-19 loss on the road. One would have to think that total trend will start to reverse itself in 2016 as the league's top Under team last year should probably start to see some low totals. For a frame of reference, note the O/U line for the Falcons' season opener LY (vs. Philadelphia) was 55! Matt Ryan and the offense were quite disappointing throughout the previous campaign, averaging just 21.2 PPG, thereby negating the gains made by the defense in the 1st year under HC Dan Quinn. At home, there's no reason to expect the Falcons won't score more against the Bucs this year, so I'm on the Over. 

Tampa Bay jumped from 2 to 6 wins last season, but that didn't stop the front office from jettisoning Lovie Smith in favor of OC Dirk Koetter. The Bucs also averaged just a hair over three touchdowns per game last season, but that was w/ a rookie QB (Jameis Winston). Working with Koetter, much is expected of Winston in year two and I look for a much better season from his top receiver, Mike Evans. The Bucs' offense was one of the best in the league at running the ball a year ago as they averaged 135 YPG.  The problem w/ the defense is that it's a "stars and scrubs" approach that never works. They have talented players at all three levels (DT Gerald McCoy, LB LaVonte David and 1st round DC Vernon Hargreaves), but a lot of subpar talent on that side of the ball as well.

These teams have two things in common. One is a 4,000+ yard passer. The other is a consistent failure to bring pressure on opposing QBs. Thus, Winston and Ryan should both have big days here. Ryan has thrown for 4,000+ yards in five consecutive seasons, but LY's TD-INT ratio (21-16) was the worst of his career. Many of those interceptions came at the worst places, like in the end zone, which are just back-breakers. I anticipate Ryan taking better care of the football in 2016 and the team's 6-0 Under mark in divisional games from last year should take a turn. 10* Over Bucs/Falcons

10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): Nothing is being expected from the Browns this year. Their projected win total of 5.0 (opened 4.5) is the lowest in the league. They went just 3-13 SU last year (5-10-1 ATS), a record I all but called for. (I had them to finish Under the win total of 6.5.) But for 2016, I'm actually willing to go out on a limb and say they'll win more games. I like the hire of Hue Jackson as the new head coach as he did a great job as the OC in Cincinnati the L2 years, plus he did a decent job in Oakland, his only previous head coaching gig. Bringing him in also significantly weakens a division rival. Whether or not RGIII turns out to be a "one year rental" is immaterial as he will be an upgrade over the team's atrocious QB play last year, particularly that of the disgraceful Johnny Manziel. Yes, a number of key players exited on defense, but one must question their value given the results of 2015.

The Eagles have moved on from Chip Kelly after three years. While the narrative will be that his tenure was not a success, note the team did post B2B 10-win seasons in 2013-14 (one playoff appearance) before "quitting" on him LY and falling to just seven. Kelly the GM was a bigger problem than Kelly the coach and left quite a mess for his replacement, Doug Pederson, who comes by way of the Andy Reid coaching tree and previously served as the OC in Kansas City. Many of Kelly's biggest moves (as a GM) were immediately "undone" as RB DeMarco Murray was jettisoned in the offseason as was LB Kiko Alonso. The defense will undergo a transformation, moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3, which could cause growing pains. Pederson's first challenge is to stabilize the QB position.

Obviously, this line was dramatically affected when Philly traded projected starting QB Sam Bradford to Minnesota. To me, the move is irrelevant as I always thought Cleveland could take this game straight up. The Eagles are now throwing top draft choice Carson Wentz "to the wolves" and I simply do not think he's ready to be a starting NFL QB just yet. Look for this to be the proverbial baptism by fire. Ironically, it was the Browns that Philly traded with to get Wentz. So in some regards, the Eagles are the "gift that keeps on giving" for Cleveland (Philadelphia gave up far too much I thought). I also think we'll look back at this line in a few months and be shocked that the Eagles could ever be favored, against anyone. I have them projected as one of the worst teams in the entire NFL, even worse than the Browns! Take the points. 10* Cleveland

8* New Orleans (1:00 ET): Whoa. I know that little is expected from the Saints this year, but this is quite the lack of respect for a home game against a West Coast team. Oakland is one of the real "trendy" picks coming into 2016, but I'm not on board. They jumped from 3 to 7 wins last year, which is usually a sign of regression the following year. Also, there is the fact that this is a game out East. While not quite the Eastern Time Zone, it is far enough that the the Raiders' poor history must be revisted. Going into last year, the Silver and Black had lost 11 straight away games and 19 of their last 20! They did win a pair of games out East in 2015, but those came against Cleveland and Tennessee, who were the two worst teams in the league. Traditionally, Oakland is a disaster in 1:00 ET starts. Since Dec of 2011, they are 1-5 SU/ATS as a road fave, pick or dog of three points or less on the road anywhere, at any time.

Under HC Sean Payton, now in his 11th season, the Saints are 55-29 SU at the Superdome. That includes 47-20 SU L67. As you might guess, it is rare to get Payton's team in this price range here. Going back to October 26th, 2008, there has only been 17 occurrences of New Orleans being favored by three points or less at home, including the five times they have been a dog. They have gone a fantastic 12-3-2 ATS in those games! As a pick or dog, they've gone 5-1 vs. the number. These occurrences are getting exceedingly more common as six of their eight home games last year saw them favored by three or less or come in as a dog. But even in a "down year," they still managed to go 4-1-1 ATS in that situaton. QB Drew Brees is still here, which means the offense is still going to put points on the board. The defense (ranked 32nd LY) can only go up and will be better simply b/c Rob Ryan is no longer around.

As alluded to earlier, most view Oakland as a team on the rise. But they were actually outgained by about 30 yards on a per game basis last season, which ranked 24th. For a point of comparison, New Orleans was 18th in that department at -9.6 YPG. As you can tell, I just don't think the Raiders are deserving of this much respect from the linesmakers. I'm not sold on QB Derek Carr and the team isn't that strong at the skill positions. The defense was 22nd in points and yards allowed. They'll struggle to stop the Saints in this venue. I just think this number is crazy given both teams' home/road splits. 8* New Orleans

8* San Diego (1:00 ET): This year, the Chargers get the "honor" of being called my most improved team for 2016. I'm on the record as saying I wouldn't be surprised if they wind up winning the AFC West. Improvement begins with the Week 1 tilt in Kansas City, a double revenge spot for the Lightning Bolts. Incredibly, the offense failed to score a single TD in either game vs. the Chiefs last year, losing 10-3 and 33-3. San Diego has actually lost four in a row in this AFC West rivalry, but I have every reason to believe the results can be different this go around. While I'm taking advantage of what's clearly a generous pointspread, I am also dead serious when I say that I would not be surprised to see the underdog take this game straight up! 

Yes, the Lightning Bolts were a 4-12 (SU) team a year ago. But they did win nine games in each of Mike McCoy's first two seasons here. Last year's team was also nowhere near as bad as its record. Nine of those losses came by eight points or less. As a result, their point differential for the season was "only" -78. That may not sound great, but they had a pythagorean win expectation of basically 6.0 (5.9). Injuries also took their toll on the 2015 Chargers, particularly along the offensive line. It's reasonable to expect improved health this year. In case you forgot, this team still has Philip Rivers, whom I still consider to be the best QB in the division. After a disappointing rookie season, I look for RB Melvin Gordon to have a breakthrough as a second-year pro. This year's first round pick, Joey Bosa, is now signed and I see the Chargers defense being better this year as well.

Kansas City is being touted by some as the AFC West favorite (Super Bowl Champ Denver is being projected to regress by just about everyone), but I don't feel they'll benefit from a +19 turnover margin (2nd best) again, like they did last year. There are also some serious injury concerns, on both sides of the ball, and the year has not even started. On offense, RB Jamal Charles may not be ready for Week 1 and that would leave a "by committee" approach at the position. On defense, LB Justin Houston is on the PUP list, which means he's out a minimum of six weeks. The other starting outside LB Tamba Hali just returned to practice last week after having knee surgery. Those are some MAJOR absences. Houston has been the team sack leader EVERY year since 2012, including a near record-setting 22 in '14. I think this Chiefs defense is "ripe for the picking" and Rivers will lead the Bolts to no worse than a cover. 8* San Diego

8* Illinois (7:30 ET): I do believe we have a live dog on our hands here. This is a pretty tough spot for North Carolina after playing Georgia at a neutral site the previous week. They lost that game 33-24 (outgained 474-315) and now head to Champaign-Urbana laying a pretty big number based on LY's success. But I don't think things will go quite so well in Chapel Hill for HC Larry Fedora in 2016 as his Tar Heels were the clear beneficiaries of a weak schedule last season. Before facing #1 Clemson in the ACC Title Game, they didn't face a single Top 20 opponent all season. Remember they also lost the bowl game to a Baylor team that was a shell of itself. Yes, take the points w/ Illinois here.

You should be quite familiar w/ Illinois' new head coach, Lovie Smith. Having had success in the NFL (led the Bears to a Super Bowl appearance), I think this is a good place for him. His home debut went well last week as the Illini crushed Murray State 52-3 racking up 500+ yards in the process. The defense held the Racers to -10 yards rushing. Obviously, there is a big step up in class this week. But I expect a fired up team as this is a revenge game for a bad 48-14 loss LY in Chapel Hill (were only eight-point dogs there). Over the past nine seasons, Illinois is 23-9 straight up when hosting a non-conference opponent.  They have experience at QB (Sr Wes Lunt) and along both lines. I also really like Ke'Shawn Vaughn, who should have a big night here given the fact UNC allowed 289 rushing yards last week to Georgia.

North Carolina was a double digit favorite five times last year, but all of those games were at home and two were against FCS teams. This price is simply a "little too rich" for my tastes. It seems as if some sharp money agrees with me as well given how the line has moved during the week! Keep in mind that ranked teams went just 6-11 ATS against unranked teams in Week 1. While that trend no longer applies here (UNC fell out of the Top 25), I thought it was worth mentioning. (The trend does apply to the other two games in this three-pack!).  North Carolina's offense is nowhere near last year as was evident by QB Mitch Trubinsky's 24 completions going for only 156 yards last week. 8* Illinois

8* Iowa State (7:30 ET):  Last week saw Iowa State lose to an FCS school, Northern Iowa, 25-20 in Ames. Iowa went 12-0 SU last year in the regular season and won its opener 45-21 over Miami OH. This should be an easy one for the Hawkeyes right? Wrong. The battle for the Cy-Hawk trophy is the in-state rivalry that's more likely to get ISU's players motivated. The Cyclones are arguably in the same position that their opponent was last week, that being taking on the state's more famous foe. Also, take note that Northern Iowa is one of the top FCS programs in the country (currently tied for #3), so that's not necessarily as horrible a loss as some will make it out to be. Iowa's win last week was also a bit misleading in the sense that they were actually outgained (424-404) by Miami and clearly benefited from a +3 turnover margin. I say throw the records out the window, it's a rivalry game and take the points.

Many signs point down for Iowa this year. Five of their wins last season came by eight points or less. Despite going unbeaten in Big 10 play during the regular season (avoided Ohio St, Michigan St and Michigan), they were only +36.6 YPG, which was just fifth best in the conference. They had a low yard per point average and were also +11 in TO margin. This year's team is also a lot less experienced. I hope that HC Kirk Ferentz enjoys the new contract he just signed b/c he is a money-burning 8-18 ATS in the home favorite role since 2012. That includes LW's non-cover as 27.5-pt chalk, a game they did lead 35-7 early in the second half. But the Hawkeye defense wasn't great in surrendering 158 rushing yards to a bad MAC team. Miami had two touchdown drives of 74+ yards.

Iowa State has to be very disappointed about what happened last week in 1st year HC Matt Campbell's debut. Campbell comes over from Toledo and I think he's stepping into a relatively decent situation. But w/ a game at TCU on deck, Campbell is now staring an 0-3 SU start right in the face. As a result, I expect a huge effort from the underdog in this one. Unlike Iowa, turnovers killed ISU last season (-11) and they also lost three games by a TD or less. While they lost 31-17 to Iowa last year (were only three-point dogs), the Cyclones actually led at halftime (17-10) and the game wasn't decided until the Hawkeyes scored a pair of touchdowns in the final 2:14. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by six points or less. 8* Iowa State

8* UTEP (7:00 ET): Oh how quickly a team can go from the hunter to the hunted in modern college football. Take Texas, now ranked for the first time ever (#25) under HC Charlie Strong (his third year in Austin). It was only Sunday when this team was a slight underdog here at home against Notre Dame. I was on Longhorns there and they treated me well, upsetting the Irish 50-47 in double overtime. But a wild, nationally televised affair can certainly lead to an overreaction by the marketplace and that's what we have here with the 'Horns checking in as monster favorites against a UTEP team that has an NFL-caliber running back. Throw in the fact that UT is working on a short week here, and has a road trip to Cal on next week's itinerary, this is a classic letdown spot. Take the points.

UTEP is a team probably not on a lot of people's radar. They went only 5-7 SU last year (4-8 ATS) and were outscored by 12.2 PPG. As a result, HC Sean Kugler dumped both of his coordinators and is starting anew. Let us not forget that this program is just three years removed from a two-win season (Kugler's first year here) and then jumped to seven wins and a New Mexico Bowl berth in 2014. Last year, a number of key things went wrong, most notably the loss of RB Aaron Jones (in the second game) when they already had only 10 returning starters back. Jones came out of the box like a "house of fire" last week, gaining a career-best 249 yards on 31 carries in a 38-22 win over New Mexico State. Those 38 points were the most scored by a Miners' offense in a season opener since 1965! They won't be that productive on that side of the ball this week, but facing a Texas team that just gave up 47 points and 200+ yds rushing, they should still be able to "score enough."

In my analysis for the ND-Texas game, I made my case as to why the Longhorns should be an improved team this season. Well, many of those same factors are pointing up for UTEP as well. Last season saw the Miners suffer a -11 turnover margin. The injury to Jones was obviously what hurt the most. While there might be little to no chance of UTEP winning this game (0-41 SU L41 times they've been a road dog of more than three TD's), Texas is really in uncharted waters here; as under HC Strong they've only been favored by more than 20 points twice and one of those was against a Kansas team that went winless LY.  8* UTEP

10* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Last week, MSU lost to South Alabama (not Alabama!), as 28-point home favorites. That has to rank right up there with the most embarrassing defeats of the Dan Mullen regime. But I can't see the Bulldogs being upset two weeks in a row here in Starkville. Note that they did miss what would have been a GW FG (bounced off the upright) on the final play and ran for 239 yards against USA. But Dak Prescott was certainly missed as the passing game went for only 143 yards (on 31 attempts!). South Carolina, meanwhile, started its road to recovery (went only 3-9 SU last season) w/ a 13-10 upset of Vanderbilt in Will Muschamp's first game. The Gamecocks got me there (I was on Vandy), but not here as I say we can use last week's very different results to our advantage and grab a favorable number on the home team. Lay the points.

South Carolina actually trailed Vandy 10-0 at halftime last week, winning the game on a career-long 56 yard field goal from Elliot Fry. Given them credit for overcoming a -2 turnover differential and they did outgain the Commodores 308-242. But I still have my questions about this team as Muschamp inherited only nine returning starters. A second straight SEC road game is a tough way to open the season even if they've had two days extra to prepare. I especially worry how a young team performs for a 1st year HC the week after pulling off a big upset. Remember, this offense was held scoreless in the first half LW in Nashville.

Because they are in different divisions, these two schools actually don't play that often. The last meeting took place in Columbia back in 2013 w/ USC winning 34-16 as 12-point chalk. That was their seventh straight time beating Miss State, a win streak which stretches all the way back to 1999! But, last week aside, Mullen has really improved things around Starkville as his Bulldogs have now won 13 of 17 against the SEC East since '09. South Carolina is just 6-12 SU against the tougher West Division including 0-4 the last two seasons. I look for the MSU players to come out fired up after being embarrassed a week ago and deliver a big bounce back victory. 10* Mississippi State

9* Under Rays/Yankees (4:05 ET): Out of nowhere, the Yankees have clawed their way back into contention. Considering the team was such a "seller" at the trade deadline, this is a major surprise. But yesterday was their sixth straight win (all against division rivals) and they are 23-13 since the start of August. I could make a pretty decent case that the last place Rays, despite being 15 games behind the Yanks in the standings, aren't significantly worse than the Yanks. But as hot as the Pinstripes are right now, I'll be staying away from the side altogether and instead turn to the total. We've got two strong starters on the hill Saturday afternoon, so I'm thinking Under in this one.

The Rays go with Chris Archer. Yes, he has one of the worst team start records in the game (9-20), but he deserves better than that. He's allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. The one he didn't was against the Yankees, but in 12 career starts vs. the Yanks, he has a 2.52 ERA and 0.939 WHIP. His L3 starts overall have seen Archer turn in a 2.95 ERA and 1.037 WHIP. Last time out, he held a good Toronto team to just two runs in 6 1/3 IP. A 25-5 KW ratio during that time is another good sign. The Yankees are a bottom five team in runs scored in the American League and remember that they had been shut out in B2B games (by Baltimore) before this six-game win streak got underway.

Last night's 7-5 loss marked the ninth consecutive Tampa Bay game that went Over the total. The Over has also been a profitable bet in this AL East rivaly w/ it cashing each of the last seven head to head matchups. Nevertheless, I'm bucking those trends here. The Rays are also a bottom five offensive in the American League. Yankees pitching has been doing an outstanding job during the win streak as opponents are averaging just 3.1 rpg over the last week. They'll give the ball to Masahiro Tanaka tonight and he's coming off four consecutive quality showings where he's allowed just four runs total in 26 IP. Tanaka has NEVER lost to the Rays in his career w/ a 6-0 TSR, 2.63 ERA and phenomenal 0.732 WHIP. For the season, he is fourth in the American League in ERA, sixth with a 1.08 WHP, third in walks per nine innings (1.56) and fourth in KW ratio (4.84). 9* Under Rays/Yankees

10* Seattle (4:05 ET): Unlike the top-heavy National League, one could make a compelling case that all but four, maybe five, teams in the American League still have a shot at the playoffs. Considering that Oakland is certainly not one of the teams still in contention, winning this series and probably sweeping it becomes paramount for Seattle. The Mariners took Friday's opener, 3-2, and are now 3.5 games back of Detroit & Baltimore for the second Wild Card. They need to leapfrog four teams to get into that spot though (also Astros, Yankees). Friday was a good start and speaking of "good starts," the M's will have Felix Hernandez on the bump this afternoon. That should lead to a relatively easy win for the road team today.

King Felix is coming off B2B bad showings, both against Texas. The team was fortunate enough to win the last one, 14-6, as shockingly Cole Hamels pitched terrible as well. Overall though, Hernandez remains one of the top pitchers in the game. Prior to the two starts against Texas, he had turned in four consecutive quality outings. Obviously, Oakland is an opponent he's quite familiar with. He's 22-8 in 42 career starts vs. the A's (29-13 TSR) w/ a 2.67 ERA and 1.109 WHIP.  The last time he faced them didn't go so well, but there were also four unearned runs scored against him. The only other time Hernandez faced Oakland this year (back in April), he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. 

The Athletics counter with their top pitcher, Kendall Graveman. He's had a fine year and it continued w/ 6 1/3 scoreless innings against Boston on Sunday. But he hasn't fared too well against the Mariners this season w/ an 0-3 TSR, twice allowing four runs. His last non-quality start (8.13) came against them. Including yday's win, Seattle is now 5-1 this season in Oakland and 18-8 here since the start of 2014. As I mentioned at the outset of this analysis, the A's are one of the few American League clubs no longer in contention. Other than Minnesota, they've probably been the AL's worst this year. A -119 run differential is sixth worst in all of baseball. Overall, they've lost 7 of 10 w/ all three wins all coming by one run. Three times during that stretch they've allowed 10 or more runs and three times they've lost by six or more runs. 10* Seattle

10* Over Ball State/Indiana (4:00 ET): Indiana definitely got me last Thursday as they exploded for a 22-point fourth quarter rally to top FIU 34-13 as 10-pt chalk. The Hoosiers returned not one, but TWO interceptions for touchdowns and had a safety go their way. So that's basically 16 pts from the defensive side of the ball, something that cannot be relied upon on a weekly basis. But before you go dismissing the offense's contribution, take note they actually gained an impressive 486 yards and 26 first downs. This was a group that averaged 36.5 PPG a year ago. I expect offensive improvement this week (in terms of points scored) to counteract the lost defensive production and see this game w/ in-state "rival" Ball State sneaking past the total. Take the Over. 

Like Indiana, Ball State's first game also stayed Under the total. But that result was not w/o a little bit of "controversy." Up 31-21 as 6.5-pt dogs at Georgia State, the Cardinals elected to kneel on the GSU 2-yd line w/ two minutes to go. That decision, which in terms of managing the game was the correct one, cost Over bettors as the number was 55.5 (needed a TD). BSU's defense actually only allowed 272 total yards, which was surprising considering they ranked 121st in FBS in total defense last season. They do have nine starters back on that side of the ball, but I don't think anyone was expecting that kind of improvement. The offense was very impressive though in rolling up 325 yards rushing. The Under was 8-3 for BSU last year, so considering that and last week's close call, the Over is due to starting hitting for this team sooner rather than later. 

Indiana, meanwhile, was one of the top Over teams in the country last season (11-2 OU). So, last week was a real departure and the game actually fell well short of expectations (total was 64.5). This number has come down after opening at 64, so there's now value in going the other way. Yes, I cited the loss of QB Sudfeld and RB Howard as a reason to fade the Hoosiers LW, but it appears as if the offense will be just fine w/o them. As for the defense, they allowed 37.6 PPG last year while BSU was at 35.8. This should turn into a shootout like the last meeting between the schools did, a 41-39 Cardinals win here in Bloomington back in 2012. 10* Over Ball State/Indiana

10* Wake Forest (3:30 ET): The Demon Deacons certainly didn't "turn any heads" with last week's ugly 7-3 win over Tulane. That game saw them gain only a pedestrian 175 yards of total offense (allowed 280) as two-touchdown chalk. As a result, it appears as if the public is "lining up" to bet against them this week. But this line is doing some "funny things" despite the high ticket count on the Blue Devils and that has caught my eye. Take note of the fact that this is a quadruple revenge spot for WF and three of those four losses have come by a TD or less. I expect a much better showing from Dave Clawson's charges this week. Take the points.

Wake is coming off a 3-9 (SU) season where not much went right. They were -13 in turnovers and had only six seniors on the entire roster! This year, they are among the 20 most experienced teams in the country w/ 16 starters back (9 off, 7 def). Clawson is now in his third year here in Winston-Salem, which is usually the make or break year for coaches as it's mostly his recruits. So you can see why there was such a sense of disappointment last week despite achieving victory. This offense is due to get better. They've averaged LESS than 20.0 PPG each of the L4 years, but LY did jump by 117 yards per game. Still, their yards per point was very low, which typically is a strong indicator that we'll see more scoring the following season. Facing a Duke defense which allowed 40 or more points in three ACC games last year is a good place to start.

David Cutcliffe has annually gotten his team to overachieve since returning to Durham, the last three years in particular. But the # of wins has dropped from 10 to 9 to 8 from 2013-15 and w/ only 12 starters back in 2016 I see that # dropping yet again. The Blue Devils have typically performed much better as underdogs w/ nine outright wins the L3 seasons. But, as favorites, they went just 1-4 ATS at home last year. Something I haven't even mentioned yet is how senior QB Thomas Sirk tore his Achilles in the spring and is out for the season. That is a huge blow. It obviously didn't cost them against overmatched NC Central last week, a result I put no stock into, but it will here as eight of the L10 meeting shave been decided by a total of 36 pts. Duke's current four-game series win streak is their longest in the rivalry since the early 60's. I say it's time for a little payback on Tobacco Road.  10* Wake Forest

8* Rice (12:00 ET): I certainly expected much improvement from Army in Jeff Monken's third year here in West Point. But I don't think anyone foresaw what ended up taking place in the Black Knights' season opener, which was a 28-13 win at Temple last Friday as two-touchdown underdogs. The Cadets certainly benefited from a +3 turnover margin in that game and the end result is they now come in overvalued for this home date w/ Rice. This will be the team's ONLY home game from now until October 15th, so spirits should be high. But Army is just 2-6 ATS as chalk under Monken including an 0-3 mark last season. Saturday will mark the first time in more than FIVE seasons that they have been asked to lay more than a touchdown against a FBS opponent. Trust me when I say that Rice is not as bad as they looked last Thursday against Western Kentucky. Take the points.

One advantage for Rice is that they have had one extra day to prepare here. Certainly, they needed it after being drubbed 46-14 as 19.5-pt dogs by WKU. A defense that allowed the most yards per play in the nation LY was again gashed as the Hilltoppers rang up nearly 650 total yards, almost all of those (552) coming through the air. But the Owls don't really have to worry about the passing game this week. Army (as per usual) attempted only five passes last week. Rice allowed "only" 97 yards (on 30 carries) LW. I do anticipate this unit being alot better in 2016 as they have nine starters back from 2015. On offense, last year saw the team average a four-year low (26.1 PPG). But HC David Baliff has seven starters back on that side of the ball and turnover luck should start to go this team's way as they are -14 in that department the L13 games.

This is the third consecutive season that these schools will meet and Rice has won the previous two, 41-21 and 38-31. There's clearly been a huge swing in perception as Army has gone from a seven-point dog on the road LY to more than a TD favorite at home this year. The Black Knights lost their fair share of close games in 2015 (1-7 SU in one-score games), which means they're likely to win more of those in 2016. A close game is what I anticipate here. 8* Rice

10* Over Rockies/Padres (10:40 ET): Colorado is a team typically associated with high-scoring games due to playing at Coors Field. No team's home games feature more runs on a per game basis than do the Rockies at 12.4 and it's not even close (#2 is Arizona at 11.0). But because of high totals set by the linesmaker, the Over is actually just 36-32-4 at Coors Field. The Rockies' scoring dips rather dramatically on the road (by about two full runs per game) and as a result, the Under is 38-29-1 in such games. But last night we saw their pitching get bludgeoned by the Padres in a 14-1 loss that sailed Over the total. Petco Park has a reputation as a "pitcher's park," but because of low totals and the oddsmakers failure to adjust them, the Over is actually 84-59-6 here since the start of last season! I'm on the Over in this one.

Colorado will start Tyler Chatwood here and while he's pitched much better on the road than at home this year, he enters in off B2B starts where he allowed six runs. His last road start was against the Phillies, who are the lowest scoring team in all of baseball, and even they got to him for six runs in four innings. While Chatwood has a nice road ERA (1.82), his WHIP of 1.129 reflects a little good fortune in the number of earned runs allowed. Walks have been a major problem for him as he's issued 21 of them in his L6 starts, a span of just 33 2/3 IP. There were five of them in last road start vs. the Phillies, so he allowed 11 baserunners in four innings there. That's simply not good.

San Diego will counter with Luis Perdomo. He faced Colorado once this year and it did not go well for him. He allowed six runs in 4 1/3 IP as the Padres lost 10-3. That game took place here at Petco. After being held to only one run last night (had eight hits), the Rockies offense should have a bounce back game here.  In five home starts, Perdomo has a 4.71 ERA and 1.535 WHIP, which has resulted in four Overs. He allowed five runs in his last time out in a venue that produces the lowest scoring games on average (Dodger Stadium) in all of baseball. 10* Over Rockies/Padres

6* San Francisco (9:40 ET): Arizona has made a pitching change here with Rubby De La Rosa replacing Brandon Shipley. The move is immaterial to me as San Fran is going with their ace Madison Bumgarner. Now, I'm well aware of the tailspin the Giants have been in this entire second half of the season. Their 2016 has seen them produce the unusual dichotomy of best record in baseball during the first half (57-33) and worst record in the second (17-32). However, with Bumgarner taking the hill tonight, I expect them to get things going in a positive direction. Arizona is a great place for a total team turnaround for SF as the D'backs are an absolutely atrocious 25-43 at home this year. Arizona's -148 run differential for the year is inches away from being the worst in all of baseball (Philly is -150).

The last time Bumgarner faced Arizona was right before the All-Star Break when life was still grand for the Giants. He threw a complete game one-hitter that day as SF rolled to a 4-0 victory as big ML favorites. In 24 career starts vs. Arizona, Bumgarner has a 2.42 ERA and 1.096 WHIP. The last five times he's faced them, that ERA is 1.22. The fact that the big lefty has only a 17-12 TSR this season seems rather criminal given a 2.56 ERA and 1.038 WHIP. But this would seem to be the ideal matchup to bounce back as Arizona was just held to five runs and 15 hits in a three-game series vs. the Dodgers where they were swept and faced all rookie starters! Don't be afraid of this price range either; the Giants are 8-1 L9 as a road favorite of -175 to -200. 

There is simply no logical reason to expect the D'backs to be competitive tonight. Like I said, they return home after being swept by the Dodgers. It was a 3-5 road trip overall. But this is one of just five teams in all of baseball to have a better record on the road than at home. Not surprisingly, two of the four others are Philly and Atlanta, who also rank among the very worst teams in the sport (other two are WC contenders St. Louis and Miami). Arizona is only 1-6 this season hosting the Giants and while they were able to split a pair of games at San Fran at the end of August, they are just 2-10 the L12 head to head matchups overall. De La Rosa allowed five runs in his last start and is no match for Bumgarner. 6* San Francisco

8* Under Cubs/Astros (8:10 ET): I presume that Texas, Cleveland, Toronto and Boston are all going to make the playoffs in the American League. That leaves the second Wild Card up for grabs and you can count Houston among those teams in contention. But, fighting for their playoff lives, the last thing the Astros wanted to see on the schedule is this interleague series with the Cubs. Having dropped two straight and finding themselves 2.5 gms back of the Orioles, it will be tough for Houston to make up ground this weekend. There is no denying that the Cubs are the best team in baseball - by a wide margin - thanks to a phenomenal +221 run differential. But the Astros may have an "ace in the hole" for tonight's opener in the form of Joe Musgrove, who I think can keep Cubs hitters at bay. As a result, I'm on the Under here.

Of course, things will also be tough for the Houston hitters here as they must face Jon Lester, who has been downright filthy since the All-Star Break. The Cubs are 8-1 in Lester starts here in the second half and over his L7, he's turned in a 1.35 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. Over the last four, he's allowed 1 or 0 ER every time. He comes in off a CG effort against the Giants, whom he held to just three hits. The Under has now cashed each of the last five times Lester has taken the mound. None of those games have seen more than seven total runs scored. The last two resulted in a 1-0 loss to the Dodgers and a 2-1 win over the Giants. Not only is the Under 4-0 the Cubs L4 interleague games, but it is also 8-2 Under following an off-day. Opposing teams are batting just .181 against Cubs pitching the L7 games. Incredibly, they've held AL teams to an average of 1.9 rpg this season!

Earlier, I mentioned Musgrove as a key for the Astros and that is absolutely true. While the sample size remains small (only two starts), he does have a 0.73 ERA and 0.892 WHIP here at Minute Maid Park. Those two starts have seen him allow only one run on eight hits over 12 1/3 IP, which is very impressive. Yes, the Cubs get to use the DH this weekend, but they come into this series batting only .214 themselves over the past week. They've been held to three runs or fewer in four of the last six games and Wednesday saw them finish with only one run and three hits in a surprise loss to Milwaukee. 8* Under Cubs/Astros

10* Syracuse (8:00 ET): It sure sounds as if a lot of people (including Brent Musburger!) are pretty high on this Louisville team this year. As they should be, given that three of the Cardinals' five losses LY came by a TD or less. HC Bobby Petrino also has 17 starters back and has his team thinking they can contend with the big boys (Florida St, Clemson) in the ACC Atlantic. While last season opened up in somewhat nightmarish fashion (lost to Auburn, Houston and Clemson by a combined 13 pts), 2016 saw them draw a much weaker opponent in the opener (Charlotte) and the result was a 70-14 drubbing (led 56-0 at halftime!) w/ 663 total yards of offense. That result has them overvalued for the conference opener where I think Syracuse will provide a ton more resistance Friday night. Take the points. 

The Orange have a new HC (Dino Babers), who comes over from a successful stint at Bowling Green. Unlike Louisville, Babers' team is being projected for the bottom of the ACC Atlantic. Syracuse went just 4-8 SU last season and while most of the players aren't Babers' recruits, this is still a pretty veteran team w/ 16 starters back. They dominated Colgate last week, 33-7 w/ a 554-143 edge in total yards. That will give them some confidence for this step up in class. It's also a big deal to get a Friday night home game on national television. One would assume that the Carrier Dome will be rocking for this one. All four of the Cuse's wins last year came at home and the three they lost were against LSU, Pitt and Clemson. They went 3-0 ATS against that tough trio, losing none of the games by more than 10 points. This is a tough out for Louisville.

These teams are old Big East rivals. As ACC foes, L'ville is 2-0 SU/ATS winning both games by 20+ points. But this time should be a little bit different. The Cards are probably "reading their own press clippings" a bit too much due to that #13 ranking, plus this is a huge lookahead spot for them as they draw Florida State (at home!) next Saturday. L'ville was just 3-2 in "true" road games last year, none of the wins coming by greater than two touchdowns. They've been a DD road favorite just once since joining the ACC and that was last year against Wake Forest, a game they won by just a single point! Babers already has made an imprint on the Syracuse offense, which ran 81 plays a week ago. That tempo will make life even more challenging for the favorite in this one. 10* Syracuse

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates have won B2B games after taking last night's series opener 4-1. However, they remain four back of both the Mets & Giants for the NL Wildcards and thanks to dropping two of three to St. Louis earlier this week, they're 3.5 games back of them as well. So there's definite work that needs to be done if the club's fleeting playoff hopes are to remain alive. Fortunately, this weekend's opponent is Cincinnati, who should provide little resistance. As I already mentioned, the Bucs won last night 4-1. They scored three runs in the first inning and that held up thanks to a fantastic outing from Ivan Nova, who delivered a 94-pitch complete game. The vast majority of the outs were recorded via ground ball and the Reds finished the game w/ only six hits. While competitive at home (34-37), Cincy is pretty much a disaster on the road at 23-45 (-11.4 units). Go w/ the home team again tonight.

The Reds come into this game as losers of five in a row and 9 of their last 11. Starter Tim Adleman seems ill-equipped to reverse the trend as he checks in w/ a 5.62 ERA his L3 starts, all of which the team has lost. He's allowed SEVEN home runs during that time span, which is clearly not good. Adleman's first big league start did come here at PNC Park (on May 1st) and surprisingly the Reds did win that game, 6-5 as +140 underdogs on the ML. But I don't expect history to repeat itself. Note Adleman has only lasted longer than five innings twice and has just two wins. Another issue for Cincy here is that OF Billy Hamilton is still out of the lineup.

Pittsburgh will also be starting a rookie in this spot. Steven Brault remains winless in four career outings, but he's pitched well enough to give me confidence that he gets the job done here. His first three starts were all out on the road. Last time out, he made his PNC Park debut and allowed only one run in five innings. So pay no mind to the fact the Bucs lost that game 10-0 to the Brewers as it certainly wasn't Brault's fault. The Reds are only 11-19 in games when facing a left-handed starter, so the southpaw should keep them at bay and lead his team to a third consecutive victory. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): Last night saw Texas took another one of those "bad losses" they have been all too prone to this season. They fell 8-3, which I suppose wasn't as bad as losing 14-6 in the series opener on Monday. But the bottom line is this team gets blown out far too regularly for my tastes and only having a +21 run differential w/ an 83-57 WL record is troubling moving forward. Consider that Cleveland, who is 80-58, has a run differential of +100. Seattle, 11.5 games back in the AL West, actually has a better YTD run differential than the Rangers! That all being said, I'm going to stay away from the money line tonight and instead turn my attention to the total. I say look for the Under to cash as neither team is going to be able to maintain this rash of high-scoring games.

Texas has gone Over in nine consecutive games. Six of those have come against Seattle. Four times during this stretch, they've scored 10 runs or more. But last night we saw the offense begin to curtail w/ just a three run effort against Ariel Miranda. All three runs came on one swing of the bat, a Carlos Beltran home run, that was only made possible by an error in the previous at-bat. The Rangers L7 games have seen an average of 15.7 rpg scored, which is a preposterous and totally unsustainable number. Tonight, they face Taijuan Walker, who quite frankly has not looked good since rejoining the rotation. But he did hold Texas to only one run on five hits earlier this year here in Safeco. I'm going to call for a surprisingly good effort from Walker in this spot. If Miranda could get the job done last night, so too can Walker.

Because they've played the Rangers so many times, Seattle games have also recently seen a scoring spike. Their last seven have seen an average of 14.5 rpg scored, again totally unsustainable. They've allowed 10 or more runs three times during that stretch. But, at home, they give up an average of just 4.3 per game for the season. For a fourth time this season, they'll face Derek Holland. In 20 career starts vs. the M's, Holland has a 3.56 ERA and 1.203 WHIP. That includes 6 2/3 scoreless innings back in April in this very ballpark. 10* Under Rangers/Mariners

10* Denver (8:30 ET): Obviously, there will be two key factors played up for this Super Bowl 50 rematch. One is the revenge angle. Two is the absence of Peyton Manning for Denver. Both, on the surface, would seem to favor Carolina. But, I say "not so fast." It sure appears to me that the public, not the linesmakers, haven't learned their lesson from February. You'll recall that the Panthers were the public side in SB 50 (I had Denver, as did many colleagues) and that didn't work out so well. This number has been bet from Denver -3 to Carolina -3, which is a massive swing. Consider the Broncos were six-point dogs on a neutral field for a game that they won straight up. I believe they can win this game SU as well. Take the points.

For the first time in the Super Bowl era, a defending champion will be going with a QB that has never started a NFL game before. That would be Trevor Siemian, who has the unenviable task of replacing Peyton Manning. The last time Denver tried replacing a legendary QB (John Elway), it didn't go so well in '99 w/ Brian Griese. But, fortunately this tine around, Siemian isn't replacing much. Manning had the worst statistical year of his career in 2015 and this Broncos team was clearly carried by the top ranked defense in the league. Much of that group is back. Carolina's offense could manage very little against the Orange Crush in the Super Bowl, scoring only 10 pts. Meanwhile, even w/ Siemian under center, I have to believe that Denver will do better offensively than the only 194 yds gained that day. The dropoff from Manning to Siemian is not going to be as severe as some may fear.

Yes, I have Denver finishing the season Under 9.5 wins as they are due to regress after only outscoring opponents by 57 points last year despite a 12-4 finish. They also went 11-3 SU in one-score games. But, you know who else is set to regress? Carolina. The Panthers were 8-1 SU in one-score games themselves and despite ranking 1st in the league in PPG on offense, they were actually outside the top 10 in yards, which is quite the dichotomy. They are also unlikely to again benefit from a league-leading +20 turnover margin. I'm taking advantage of the line move here. 10* Denver

8* St. Louis (7:15 ET):  The Cardinals enter Friday in a virtual tie w/ the Mets for the second Wild Card in the National League. Both teams are also just one-half game back of the rapidly fading Giants, who currently occupy the top Wild Card position. At this point, it looks like a three-team race for those two spots. Having lost yday in Pittsburgh, St. Louis can ill-afford to drop another game tonight, or the entire weekend for that matter, to Milwaukee. The Brewers have long been out of contention, so while they've won each of the L2 days (against the Cubs!), I don't see them ripping off any kind of prolonged win streak. The Cards are 11-4 this year vs. the Brew Crew and one has to believe they'll turn things around at home where shockingly they're just 30-37 for the season. The Redbirds' current run differential (+80) is third best in the N.L and sixth best overall in all of MLB.

St. Louis will have to face Milwaukee's top pitcher Friday, that being Junior Guerra. He comes in sporting a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and has a 7-2 TSR on the road. But Guerra's own record in those starts is just 2-1, indicating that he's had a little luck go his way. His ERA jumps nearly a full point higher away from Miller Park. This will be his third time starting against St. Louis this year and he's lost the first two due to giving up seven runs in 12 total innings. Neither game was particular close either w/ the Cards winning 6-0 and 5-1. Remember that this is the #2 offense in the NL that he'll be facing. St. Louis had scored 21 runs in the two games prior to yday's loss, not to mention had homered in 25 consecutive contests.

While recent results have not been great for Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals starter has pitched well in the past against the Brewers. In 21 career starts, he has a 2.73 ERA and 1.131 WHIP, including a gem back in July where he went eight innings and gave up only one run. That was here at home as was a CG shutout (13-1 KW) back in April. Though he did take the loss his last time out, Friday in Cincinnati, note that Garcia allowed only two runs in six innings there. The Cards' home record may be disappointing, but the Brew Crew are just plain bad on the road at 23-41. 8* St. Louis

8* Over Phillies/Nationals (7:05 ET): The Over got me last night w/ the Nationals, thanks to extra innings. They needed 11 innings to dispatch the Braves, 5-4 (O/U line was 8 or 8.5). It was the 11th straight game between the two teams to go Over the total. While it's another weak division foe this weekend for the Nats, I will be jumping aboard the Over in tonight's series opener with the Phillies. This is hardly a marquee pitching matchup we have on our hands Friday and also Philly road games are among the highest scoring in the league at 9.1 runs per. They're likely to do a little more damage offensively after being shut out yday (by Miami) and Washington should have no problems scoring runs in this game either. Take the Over.

"Asher got his butt handed to him last year."  Asher is Alec Asher, tonight's starter for the Phillies. That quote comes by way of manager Pete Mackanin and he's not lying. Asher posted a 9.31 ERA in 2015 and then things went from bad to worse as he received an 80-game ban for drugs. He has spent time this year pitching in Triple A. That 9.31 ERA was the highest ever for a Phillies starter that made at least seven starts in a given season. Here, he'll be facing a lineup that averages a healthy 4.8 rpg for the season. Washington has collected a total of 27 hits in the last two games. As mentioned above, every game in the Atlanta series finished Over the total.

Philly is the lowest scoring team in all of MLB, but they should get their chances today facing A.J. Cole. This will be Cole's fourth start of the season. While he pitched well his last time out, conceding only one run on three hits to the Mets (6 IP), he did allow a home run for a third straight start. Cole also could be left "hung out to dry" in this one as the Washington bullpen was heavily taxed last night, not just because of extra innings, but also due to an early exit from Stephen Strasburg. The Over has cashed in 10 of the Nats' previous 12 home games, not to mention it's 43-19-4 the L66 times they've hosted a team w/ a losing record. Similarly, the Over is 6-1 the Phillies' last seven road games vs. a team with a winning record. It's also 9-2-1 their L12 series openers. 8* Over Phillies/Nationals

10* Under Braves/Nationals (7:05 ET): As you might expect, the Nationals have had little to no difficulty in beating up on the Braves this year. Head to head, they're 13-2 against their NL East rival, which is not very shocking considering where the teams respectively reside in the standings. Going back to the start of last year, the Nats are now 27-7 vs. Atlanta, so this is nothing new. Obviously, the asking price on Washington at home tonight is very high, so we'll leave that alone and instead turn to the total, which I believe offers some value in Stephen Strasburg's return to the rotation. Because Strasburg didn't look so good prior to his stint on the DL, we're able to get a number that's a half or maybe even full run higher than it should be. It would be great if Washington didn't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth, thus negating those final three outs. That's always a boon for an Under bet. Take the Under.

In his three starts before landing on the DL, Strasburg allowed a ghastly 19 runs in just 11 2/3 innings. One of those poor performances did come against Atlanta as he allowed six runs on seven hits, lasting only 5 1/3. But consider that in two previous starts vs. the Braves this year, Strasburg had allowed just three runs in 13 2/3 IP. His WHIP is far better than his ERA, particularly at home, which is a strong indicator of positive future performance. The fact that the Over is 17-5 in all Strasburg' starts this season is a major shocker. He'll be facing MLB's second lowest scoring offense here (3.9 rpg), so that's a good way to see regression to the mean. Don't forget that behind Strasburg is the National League's top bullpen.

Atlanta has been scoring far more than usual of late. They came into this series riding a six-game win streak (matched a season-high) and have now scored six or more runs in six of the last eight games. But, for the reasons outlined above w/ Strasburg, I think their offense gets held in check tonight. Pitching for the Braves will be Mike Foltynewicz, who has a 0.966 WHIP his L3 starts. So he should help in the run suppression department as well. Atlanta's own bullpen has been effective lately as well w/ a 1.57 ERA and 0.802 WHIP. It helps that the first two games of this series have both been high-scoring. All the value is on the Under in this one. 10* Under Braves/Nationals

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians came into the series on quite the run. They'd swept their two previous opponents, Minnesota and Miami, and were a MLB-best 33-11 at home dating back to June 2nd (15-3 L18). Don't tell that to the Astros, however, as they've come in and surprisingly taken the first two of this four-game set. Monday saw a starter (Michael Fiers) with a poor track record on the road come in and deliver a surprisingly solid effort, holding Cleveland to just two runs. Tuesday, the Tribe looked to have a huge advantage w/ Corey Kluber on the hill and Houston having to scratch Dallas Keuchel. But one bad pitch from Kluber (3-run HR) essentially cost Cleveland the game. I can't see the AL Central leaders dropping a third straight home game, thus I'm on them again tonight.

As is often the case with Cleveland, on paper, they look to have the pitching edge for tonight's matchup. They give the baseball to Carlos Carrasco, who continues to rack up impressive strikeout numbers. He fanned 11 batters in his last outing, which ended up being a 6-2 win last Friday over Miami. I played him in that spot (on the run line) and he didn't allow any runs over 7 1/3 innings. He now has an absurd 47-2 KW rate his L5 starts overall. While he hasn't faced Houston yet in 2016, he does own a 2.13 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in four career starts against them, one of those being a CG two-hitter w/ 12 K's! Opponents are hitting just .228 this year against Carrasco, who has a 3.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. 

Meanwhile, the Astros are left to counter w/ Doug Fister, who was touched up for eight runs and 10 hits - in only 3 2/3 IP - by Texas his last time out. That was the fourth time in his last five starts that Fister allowed at least four runs (6.23 ERA). Those numbers may not be indicative of how Fister has pitched overall this season, but particularly concerning are his own strikeout totals of late. He has just ONE in his last two starts! That's what you basically get from Carrasco every inning. Another bad sign is that Fister has gone nine straight starts recording more outs via fly ball than ground ball. Houston has been hot, but I still trust Cleveland's 11-3 record as a home favorite of -150 to -175 on the money line as well as the fact that they're simply the better team. 8* Cleveland

8* NY Mets (12:35 ET): The Mets are now 5-0 against the Reds this season after beating them 5-3 on Tuesday. They can now sweep them for a second time this season w/ another win this afternoon. While Cincinnati has been "game" at Great American Ballpark this season (34-36), the fact is they've dropped 11 of their last 15 games overall and even w/ Anthony DeSclafani on the bump, it does not appear this is a likely place for them to "get off the mat." The Mets counter w/ Noah Syndergaard, who is on a major roll. The Mets remain just two games back of the Cardinals (in the loss column) and this is a game they cannot afford to drop. Fortunately, day games have been kind to them this season w/ a 25-17 record.

Syndergaard has turned in three straight phenomenal starts where his WHIP is a ridiculous 0.545. During that time, he's allowed only seven hits in 22 IP. First, it was eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball at San Francisco (W 2-0). Then, seven innings while allowing only one run on two hits to Philadelphia. Last time out, he gave up two runs on three hits, but sadly still took the loss as the Mets fell to Washington, 4-1. Of Syndergaard's 26 starts this year, 18 have been quality. Thus, a 16-10 TSR seems grossly unfair, especially in light of a 2.57 ERA and 1.118 WHIP. Only Kyle Hendricks of Chicago and Madison Bumgarner of San Francisco have lower ERA's among qualified starters and Syndergaard also ranks 8th w/ 188 K's. All-time, his TSR vs. Cincinnati is 3-0 w/ a 2.42 ERA. In the earlier series this year, he finished w/ a 9-0 KW rate in a 5-3 win where he was a -210 favorite on the money line. This price, by comparison, looks like a steal. 

Keep in mind that the Mets aren't just perfect against the Reds this year; they've beaten them 13 times in a row dating back to 2014. Coming into today, they've won 13 of their last 17 regardless of opponent. Charged w/ reversing these trends is DeSclafani, who is having a great year on a bad team. But he doesn't appear to be the man for the job given his 0-3 career TSR vs. New York w/ a 12.27 ERA. Last season, he gave up five runs opposite Syndergaard and that's simply too many. Cincy's -124 run differential is 5th worst in all of MLB.  8* NY Mets

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): Among critics, Texas is probably the most divisive team in recent MLB history. They very clearly have a talented roster and also own the best record in the American League at 82-56. But they also have a run differential of just +23 for the season, which works to an "expected" win total of only 71. That gap between actual and expected wins is the largest in either league. Monday saw them lose a game to Seattle (14-6) that had far more scoring than anyone could have anticipated w/ a pitching matchup of Hamels v. Hernandez. Seattle's run differential for the year is +21, almost identical to that of the Rangers, so the fact that the two teams are still separated by 12.5 games in the standings is misleading. I look for the M's to win big again at home tonight.

This series is all about revenge from the Seattle perspective as they were swept down in Arlington just last week. But Monday was the second time they beat up on Hamels, knocking him out in the second inning. This Seattle team has been strong offensively for much of the year as they are just two runs away from ranking in the top 5 in the AL in runs scored. Given that they average 5.0 rpg when facing a left-handed starter, I like their chances today facing Martin Perez, whose numbers on the road are not good at all. He has a 1-8 record in 13 starts (4-9 TSR) thanks to a 6.23 ERA and 1.564 WHIP. He's off a shockingly good showing, against Seattle no less, where he threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings. But given that he'd allowed six runs in B2B starts prior, regression should be in the cards tonight. Perez has a career 1.520 WHIP (nine starts) vs. the Mariners.

Seattle comes back w/ James Paxton, who like all Mariners pitchers didn't have a good game in the last series w/ Texas. But his career numbers against the Rangers (2.32 ERA) suggest a bounce back is likely and what's really interesting here is that even though Paxton has a 4-11 TSR overall this season and Perez is at 15-13, it is the former that has both the better ERA (3.83) and WHIP (1.364). I simply don't believe there's much difference between these two teams, thus the M's are being undervalued at Safeco Field. 10* Seattle

9* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am laying the 1.5 runs w/ Cleveland. The Indians were my last RL play and ended up destroying Miami Friday night 6-2. They'd go on to sweep the Marlins over the weekend, their second straight sweep at Progressive Field, giving them a six-game win streak. But they let me down last night, losing 7-2 at home to the Astros. Previously, the Tribe had won 15 of 18 home games and enjoyed a MLB best 33-11 home record since June 2nd. I'd say the odds of them bouncing back tonight are very strong, considering that Corey Kluber is going to be starting. Meanwhile, Houston has made a pitching change from Dallas Keuchel to Brad Peacoack, significantly weakening their chances.

Kluber has been as good as any pitcher in the league of late and is someone you have to consider taking every time out, in one form or another. Entering tonight, the team has won each of his L7 starts w/ him turning in a 2.27 ERA and 1.112 WHIP. As I've said before, his WHIP this year (1.051) is actually better than that of his 2014 Cy Young season. Each of those last seven starts have been quality as he's actually gone 10 consecutive outings w/ not only allowing more than 3 ER. Every time, he's gone at least six innings. In those L10 starts, he's held opposing hitters to a .216 batting average and .294 OBP, both outstanding numbers. In six career starts vs. Houston, Kluber is 4-2 w/ a 2.73 ERA.

Keuchel not only won't be pitching tonight for the Astros (elbow inflammation), he may not pitch again this season. That would be a huge blow to the team's playoff hopes and has to be a huge blow to their psyche. I simply do not think Brad Peacock is the man for the job here as he could only go 5-6 w/ a 4.23 ERA in Triple A. Last night's result obviously surprised me (I had Cleveland), but I have the Tribe winning this one big, by no fewer than a two-run margin. 9* Run Line Cleveland (-1.5)

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Don't look now, but the Yankees have somehow wormed their way back into playoff contention. Considering their run differential is not all that different from the 58-78 Rays, this is a complete shocker to me, especially in light of all the deals made near the trade deadline. Then again, tip your cap to skipper Joe Girardi, who has his team on pace to overachieve for a fourth consecutive season. I do not like them tonight, however, as I expect Toronto to bounce back from last night's 5-3 setback. The Blue Jays still lead the division (AL East) thanks to the fact Boston has lost each of the last two days. But they now have THREE teams within 5.5 games of them, so they can't afford to be dropping too many more games.

Before they beat Baltimore 5-2 on Sunday, the Yankees had been shutout in consecutive games by the Orioles. They didn't have a single extra base hit in that series. So it's not as if this offense has been firing on all cylinders of late. Phenom Gary Sanchez has cooled off considerably. Today, they face Aaron Sanchez, who held Baltimore to only an unearned run in a victory his last time out. Toronto has won each of his L3 starts and he checks in w/ a 2.88 ERA (which is tops among all AL starters!) and a 1.16 WHIP. His 13-2 WL record is #1 as well in the American League (16-9 TSR) and is mostly owed to his dominance on the road where he is 8-1 w/ a 2.62 ERA. Sanchez has started twice this year against the Yanks and been dominant both times. He's allowed a total of two runs - only one earned - and 10 hits in 12 2/3 IP.

New York counters with Luis Cessa, who will be making only his fourth start of the season. After a strong debut on 8.20, he's gotten a little bit shakier w/ each passing turn in the rotation. He's allowed four home runs the last two starts and put his team in an early four-run hole (which they were able to climb out of) his last time out. I feel that Toronto's offense is due to "bust loose" sooner rather than later. Note that the Jays are 9-4 this season, head to head w/ the Yankees. 8* Toronto

10* Florida State (8:00 ET): I'm very high on Florida State this year and believe they'll make the CFP. While they won't have QB Sean Maguire tonight, I think redshirt freshman Deondre Francois will come in and perform very well. He'll be surrounded by an incredible 10 returning starters (that's everybody else!) on the offensive side of the ball. The three losses last year were far more than we're accustomed to seeing in Tallahassee, but everything sets up nicely for the 'Noles to bounce back in 2016. They could be favored in every game this season and get the big one vs. Clemson at home. This may not be a "true" home game, but it is being played in neighboring Orlando where FSU has gone 8-0-2 SU all-time and figures to have a massive edge in crowd support. I think this line is way too low. Lay the points.

Aside from Alabama, it has not been a great opening weekend for the vaunted SEC. Tennessee flirted w/ disaster against Appalachian State, LSU lost outright to Wisconsin, Mississippi State lost to South Alabama, Auburn lost at home to Clemson and both Florida and Arkansas failed to cover against lesser opponents. That may not bode well here for Ole Miss, who is coming off a 10-3 SU season under Hugh Freeze. While the consensus is that the Rebels are one of the top four teams in their conference (along w/ 'Bama, LSU and Tenn) and one of the top teams in the country, I actually don't believe they'll be able to match LY's record. They have only 10 starters back - total - which is as many as FSU has returning on the offensive side of the ball alone! It will be an entirely new starting offensive line for Freeze. Also, this was not the greatest offseason in Oxford as NCAA sanctions are looming. 

In terms of sheer talent possessed, Florida State is on the short list for most in the country. It all begins w/ RB Dalvin Cook, who I expect to have a big game here. Cook ran for nearly 1,700 yards last season, a school record, and that came against a schedule where half the teams actually ranked in the top 30 in rush defense. I was shocked to find that the Seminoles were favored by a TD or less in half of their regular season games a year ago. They went 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) w/ the only loss coming on a fluky kick return against Georgia Tech. I'll conclude by mentioning that the defense gave up only 17.5 PPG last year. 10* Florida State

10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians have swept their last two opponents (Minnesota and Miami) and now lead the AL Central by 5.5 games over Detroit. It's a division that they are going to win, mark my words. While Tribe fans were ecstatic over yday's 6-5 walkoff win over the Marlins (payback for '97 World Series?), it left me w/ a bitter taste in my mouth as I had the Under 8.5, which looked like a "sure thing" until the ninth inning. The next opponent to come to Cleveland is Houston, who is desperately trying to get back into the Wild Card race. They trail Baltimore & Detroit by two full games entering today. It was also a one-run for the Astros yday, 8-7 over the Rangers, but they ended up allowing a ton of runs in that series and that's bad news for this trip to Progressive Field. I'm on the home team in this one.

Mike Clevinger will be making a spot start for Cleveland in tonight's opener. It's something he did twice in August and both times the Indians won, so I'm a little surprised at the price we're able to get here. I was on Clevinger back on August 4th when he took the mound here at home against Minnesota. At the time, the Indians were facing the prospect of getting swept by the last place Twins, but Clevinger delivered 4 1/3 solid innings where he allowed only two runs. He was even better the last time we saw him as he held the Angels to only one run in 5 2/3 IP. Manager Terry Francona will likely turn to the bullpen sooner rather than later again tonight, but that's okay as he didn't have to use a ton of relievers throughout the Miami series.

Houston will go w/ Michael Fiers and he's proven to be a much better pitcher at home than on the road. That's obviously problematic tonight. While he's 6-3 at Minute Maid Park (3.33 ERA, 1.198 WHIP), he's just 3-3 on the road (4-7 TSR) w/ a 5.80 ERA and 1.508 WHIP, ugly numbers indeed. Cleveland happens to be the third highest scoring home team in all of baseball, trailing only Colorado and Boston, at 5.8 rpg. They've won 15 of their last 18 games at Progressive Field and since June 2nd have the best home record in all of baseball at 33-11. This is just way too cheap of a price at home on a team that's as good as the Indians are. 10* Cleveland

10* Under Cardinals/Pirates (4:05 ET): It was nothing short of a disastrous weekend for the Pirates, who were swept here at home by lowly Milwaukee, including a 10-0 loss on Sunday. Things actually could have been a lot worse, believe it or not, but the teams that they are chasing in the Wild Card race didn't perform a whole heck of lot better themselves. One of those teams is Monday's opponent, St. Louis, who did win Sunday (5-2 at Cincinnati). But that was the Redbirds' only win over the Reds, so the lead is now just 3.5 games over the Bucs for that second Wild Card and the Mets are in between (just two back of St. Louis in the loss column). Clearly, we've established that this is a meaningful Labor Day game at PNC Park and with the two sides so familiar with one another, I'm thinking Under.

This will be the 14th overall meeting between the two teams this season. Of the now 14 matchups, it will be the fourth time St. Louis manager Mike Matheny has handed the baseball to Adam Wainwright. Each of the previous three have seen Wainwright turn in a quality start, which means going at least six innings and giving up 3 ER or less. The last time he faced Pittsburgh was July 7th and there he allowed just one run and five hits in seven innings of work. He would go on to win his first start after the break, a complete game effort against Miami, but interestingly has not tasted victory since. It certainly hasn't always been his fault for that as five of the last eight starts have resulted in no decisions. Last time out, he allowed just one run and three hits in 7 IP against Milwaukee, but still did not factor into the decision, which was a 2-1 win for St. Louis. Regardless if Wainwright factors into the decision this afternoon, his history suggests he can keep the Pirates' lineup in check. It certainly helps that the Bucs have been shutout three times during the current six-game losing streak!

St. Louis' own offense has seen a decrease in production recently as the team batting average over the L7 games is just .197. They've averaged only 3.0 rpg during that time as well. So, it's not just one, but two scuffling offenses at play here.The Cards had scored only six runs total in the four games previous to yday's 5-2 win at Cincinnati. That's certainly good news for Pirates' starter Chad Kuhl, who leads the team w/ a 7-2 team start record. His ERA (3.70) and WHIP (1.17) are both fine as well as he's allowed 3 ER or less in eight of those nine trips to the mound. Overall, he's given up just 12 runs in his L6 starts.  Each of the L3 have stayed Under w/ none of the games seeing more than five total runs scored.  10* Under Cardinals/Pirates

8* Calgary (3:00 ET): The more things change, the more they stay the same. Calgary is yet again the best team in the CFL w/ a 7-1-1 record and +93 point differential. No other team in the league has outscored its opponents by more than 34 points this season. Since losing in Week 1 (by 2 at BC, I was on the right side of that one!), the Stampeders haven't tasted defeat since. They enter Mark's Labour Day Weekend on a six-game win streak and what's been most impressive is they're not just winning, but covering as well. The team is 7-1 ATS since dropping the opener and they've been the favorite in all but one of those games. Two wins over second place British Columbia and last week's 30-24 triumph over Hamilton have clearly established the Stamps as the team to beat.

Meanwhile, Edmonton has definitely taken a bit of a step back from LY's Grey Cup campaign. They're only 5-4 SU and have the worst ATS record in the league at 2-5-2 ATS. After leading the league in defense (19.6 PPG allowed) in last year's championship season, that unit has regressed all the way down to eighth (27.4 PPG allowed) so far in 2016. That's the easiest reason to cite for the struggles thus far, though it does appear they're righting the ship w/ three consecutive victories here in August. The Eskimos won but didn't cover last week against Saskatchewan as they were big 13.5-pt favorites (won 33-25). That victory also saw them lose starting RB Jon White to injury, potentially a major loss moving forward.

For those of you that are potentially "new" to the world of CFL betting, this provincial rivalry is probably the most fierce in the league. The Stampeders had beaten the Eskimos seven straight times before losing three in a row to them last season, including the Western Division Final. So this now becomes a big revenge spot for them at McMahon Stadium. Very interesting is the fact Calgary is a perfect 11-0 ATS its L11 games on Labour Day Weekend while Edmonton is 0-11 ATS! That's no coincidence as the rivals play every year on the holiday. The bottom line is that the Stamps are 37-9-1 (.787) when Bo Levi Mitchell starts at QB, unbeaten at home this year (4-0) and #1 in the league in defense (20.6 PPG). They've also allowed the fewest sacks and have the top turnover margin. Laying less than a touchdown in this spot, I like them to win and cover. 8* Calgary

5* Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): Like I said in the promo, this one appears to be pretty easy. The Cubs, without question, should be considered the favorite to win the World Series. Regardless of their history, the present has been very kind as this team is now 40 games above .500 w/ a 16.5 game lead in the division and +224 run differential (81 runs better than #2 team) following Sunday's thrilling walk-off win over the Giants (outhit SF 10-4). Meanwhile, Milwaukee may be coming off a sweep in Pittsburgh, including a 10-0 win Sunday, but the oddsmakers aren't buying them and neither am I. The Cubs have beaten the Brewers in 9 of 12 head to head meetings in 2016, including a four-game sweep in Wrigley last month. 

Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester are the big names in the Cubs' starting rotation. But it is Kyle Hendricks that leads all of MLB in ERA (2.06) and is #2 in WHIP (0.981)! Lately, Hendricks has been particularly filthy w/ a 1.42 ERA and 0.789 WHIP his L3 starts. He just threw seven shutout innings of three-hit ball his last time out, vs. Pittsburgh. Milwaukee did beat Hendricks all the way back on May 17th w/ him allowing a season-high 4 ER. He's allowed 3 ER or less in his 18 starts since. In 10 of those, he's allowed 1 or 0 runs! The Brewers have been lucky to avoid Hendricks ever since May 17th, but their fortune changes today. I have no unearthly idea how Hendricks only has a 15-10 TSR. This is a pitcher you need to be looking to bet on moving forward. His bullpen just got done pitching 16 scoreless innings in the Giants' series.

On the other side of the ledger, we have Milwaukee's Zach Davies. He has a 6.06 ERA and 1.592 WHIP his L3 starts, which includes a disastrous trip to the mound against these Cubs. He allowed 7 ER and 10 hits in just 4 IP back on Aug 18 and obviously took the loss there. That was the last time these NL Central rivals faced off and it leaves the Cubs at 23-8 the L31 meetings overall. The Cubs are also an outstanding 40-23 in day games this season. The Brewers have lost the last three times after scoring 10+ runs the previous game, so this looks like a great time to fade as they simply don't measure up to this division foe. 5* Chi Cubs

8* Texas (7:30 ET): The Lonhghorns should be a lot better in Charlie Strong's third year in Austin. Last year's team finished only 5-7 SU, but they were much better than that record as they had three losses by a FG or less. They were also the only team to knock off Oklahoma in the regular season. That upset win came after a 1-4 SU start and may have saved Strong's job. I would not be surprised if this ended up being the runner-up to OU in the Big 12 this year. The offense should be a lot better even though it's a true frosh (Shane Buechele) starting at QB. The defense has eight starters back and that is Strong's side of the ball.  This is one of those games where sharp money has definitely shown up on the dog as the number has come down despite the ticket count. Take the points.

Notre Dame is a mess right now. Not only do they lack experience, but there have been discipline issues and HC Brian Kelly can't seem to decide on a quarterback. As for the experience issue, the Irish lost the top rusher, three top receivers, four top tacklers, sack leader and multiple starting offensive lineman from LY's team which finished 10-3 SU. They enter 2016 among the least experienced teams in the entire country. Senior safety Max Redfield was just dismissed from the team not that long ago, leaving a true freshman to start in his place. Redfield was one of six players arrested two weeks ago for two seperate incidents. Kelly will juggle Malik Zaire and DeShone Kizer at quarterback, which I do not think is a good idea. Though they ended up covering for me last night, we saw the problems Auburn had alternating QB's throughout the game. 

Obviously, the revenge angle is strong here w/ Texas looking to erase the memory of last year's season opener where they got humiliated 38-3 up in South Bend. Fortunately for them, the rematch is in Austin. Notre Dame has lost eight straight regular season road games in which it was NOT favored by at least a touchdown! They also failed to cover LY in games at Virginia and Temple. Over the L20 seasons, the Irish are just 5-14 SU in "true" road openers. I like Texas here to cover and probably pull the outright upset. 8* Texas

10* Over Notre Dame/Texas (7:30 ET): The Longhorns finished 5-7 SU last year, but were a lot better than that record as they suffered three losses by a field goal or less. I expect them to be much improved here in Charlie Strong's third year in Austin, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Strong has brought in a new OC/QB coach in Sterlin Gilbert, who should totally transform this unit. Gilbert comes over from Tulsa where his offense averaged a whopping 502.8 YPG last season! Gilbert will be working w/ a true frosh at QB (Shane Buechele), but he should be an upgrade from LY's starter Tyrone Swoopes. It will be a "Baylor-style" offense being implemented here and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Texas offense increase its scoring average by double digits in 2016.

Notre Dame is going w/ two quarterbacks in this game, DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire. Both will have to deal with a depleted receiving corps and the loss of last season's top rusher CJ Prosise. Nevertheless, Kelly is somewhat of an offensive guru and there were only two games in 2015 where his offense failed to score at least 28 points. One was against Clemson, who obviously was unbeaten until the National Championship Game. The other came against a Boston College team whose defense led the entire nation in scoring. So scoring points shouldn't be an issue this year in South Bend. Defense, on the other hand, could be a problem w/ the four top tacklers and sack leader having departed. Complicating matters is the recent dismissal of senior safety Max Redfield, who may have been the most important player in DC Brian VanGorder's scheme.

Notre Dame thrashed Texas last year up in South Bend, 38-3, totaling 527 yards. So we certainly know they are capable of moving the ball on this Longhorns defense. I don't think they'll be quite as proficient as last year, but again, there were just the two games where they failed to score at least 28 points. But the major key here is the improvement from the Texas offense compared to last year. The ticket count on the Under is shockingly high (Over is almost always the more popular bet), so in a contrarian move I'm on the Over here as the Longhorns' offense is far more equipped to match Notre Dame's this year. 10* Over Notre Dame/Texas

8* Colorado (4:10 ET): The Rockies really let me down yday, losing 9-4 to the D'backs. As I said in the analysis though, this team (Colorado, that is) remains "better than it's record" (currently 65-70) as they have a run differential of +26, which up until yday was actually better than the Texas Rangers, who have the best record in the American League! I have the Rocks bouncing back from Saturday's defeat today as Arizona remains one of the worst teams in the sport w/ their own run differential of -138 ranking third worst. The D'backs are only 17-27 in day games this season, not to mention 22-34 off a win. 

It was certainly disappointing to see Colorado score only four runs yday. They had totaled 37 in the previous four games and are the highest scoring home team in the major at 6.4 rpg. The gap between them and the sixth highest scoring home team in the league (Baltimore) is larger than the gap betwee #6 and #29. The offense should rebound today facing Archie Bradley, who is hardly having a great season. Bradley has a 5.17 ERA and 1.595 WHIP his L3 starts and those numbers are only slightly worse than what we've seen from him over the course of the entire season. Note that while he hasn't been all that bad his L2 starts, he benefited from facing both Atlanta and Cincinnati at home. While Bradley does have a 3-0 career TSR vs. the Rockies, he is undeserving of it given that his ERA and WHIP are 4.38 and 1.703 respectively.

The home team will counter w/ rookie Jon Gray, who is off B2B quality starts. Last time out, he kept the Dodgers scoreless over six innings and allowed only four hits. That was here at Coors Field. With 18 K's in his L2 starts, he now owns the franchise record for most strikeouts in a season by a rookie w/ 150.  I like how manager Walt Weiss made the move to Gray for today, as opposed to Chad Bettis, who has struggled against Arizona this year. Overall, Colorado is still 9-6 this year vs. Arizona. They are clearly the better team.  I imagine they'll show that today. 8* Colorado

10* Under Marlins/Indians (4:10 ET): I cashed Cleveland in the opener of this three-gamet set, playing them on the run line (-1.5) and they rolled to a 6-2 victory. I laid off yday's game as they were facing Jose Fernandez, but even that couldn't stop the Tribe from scoring eight times in yet another impressive victory. Overall, the team has won five in a row and now leads the AL Central by 5.5 games over Detroit, who lost Saturday. After Saturday's surprisingly high scoring affair (was an 8-3 final), I'm going to jump back in and take the Under in this unusually late start time Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. This is a higher total than either of the first two games of the series.

Though the Marlins lineup should theoretically benefit from the addition of the DH, both previous Cleveland starters - Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer - had little difficulty facing them. Their combined ERA in the first two games was 1.72. Today, it's Danny Salazar. An All-Star, Salazar did not have a good August after spending some time on the disabled list. In four starts last month, his ERA was an unsightly 12.41. But he did show signs of turning things around his last time out as he held Texas to only two runs and five hits in 5 1/3 IP. He also struck out 10 batters in what ended up being a hard luck 2-1 loss. I look for even better results today as Miami has scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their last 13 games. As I mentioned in Friday's analysis, injuries have really hit them hard.

Tom Koehler starts here for the Marlins. Like Salazar, he should benefit here from the fact the opponent has never faced him. Koehler's last interleague start (vs. Kansas City on 8.25) did stay Under the total w/ him holding the Royals to 3 ER in 6 IP. Another key when handicapping the Under is that you always hope to avoid playing the final half inning. Needing only 51 outs rather than 54 can often times be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under. Here, Cleveland is a big favorite on the money line, so I think that it's certainly reasonable to expect that we won't be playing the bottom of the ninth today. 10* Under Marlins/Indians

8* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): Just last week, the Pirates went to Miller Park (which has been a "House of Horrors" for them through the years) and swept the Brewers. It's certainly strange then to see the Brew Crew come here to PNC Park and take the first two games of a three-game set. The B2B losses here now make it five in a row for the Bucs, who are somehow still just 2.5 games back of the second Wild Card in NL (which no one wants to seem to win). Milwaukee is still just 20-35 vs. the rest of the Central (just 12-27 vs. the other three teams besides Pittsburgh). Strangely, the road team has now won the last SEVEN head to head matchups between these two (five of those wins by Pit). That streak ends Sunday.

Milwaukee is not a good road team (22-41). Today's starter Chase Anderson is a big reason why. He's just 1-6 in 12 road starts (3-9 TSR) w/ a 5.89 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He has pitched well against Pittsburgh the L2 times he's faced them, although both outings came at home. He lost here at PNC Park in July, giving up three runs in just four innings. He also took the loss Sunday after giving up a pair of home runs in just 5 1/3 IP. I realize that was Anderson's first loss since July 9th, but that's a little bit misleading. His ERA was north of 5.00 entering that last start. He also threw 101 pitches, his most in any start since prior to Memorial Day. The team is now 6-12 w/ him on the mound as an underdog.

Making just his fourth career big league start will be Steven Brault. While he still is in search of that elusive first win, note that his best start came on 7.29 against Milwaukee. He returned to the rotation Monday (after a one-month absence) and had to face Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. I think this is his best matchup yet. The Brewers entered Saturday batting just .191 its previous seven games and the star of yday, rookie Jose Arcia (had three hits), entered that game w/ just a .209 average since being called up on Aug 1. Milwaukee scored five of its seven runs in the final two innings as well. So, like I said, Brault has a favorable matchup here. The Pirates cannot afford to be swept at home by a non-contender considering the current state of the playoff race. 8* Pittsburgh

9* Toronto (1:07 ET): The Blue Jays are facing the prospect of being swept by the last place team in their division and are now tied w/ Boston for the lead in the AL East. But I like the Jays in Sunday's finale as they'll be sending J.A. Happ and his 19-7 TSR (12-2 L14) to the mound. Note they had a 1-0 lead entering the bottom of the sixth yesterday. Tampa Bay has been the one victimized by some poor luck in 2016 (11-20 in one-run games), but the bottom line is that they are the last place team in the division (58-76) and left to simply "play out the string."  They are second from the bottom in all of MLB at the betting window at -23.5 units.

Last year, it was the offense that carried Toronto to an AL East pennant and appearance in the LCS. They averaged nearly a full run more per game (5.5) than every other team! This year, while the offense still ranks a healthy sixth in runs per game (4.9), the pitching has vastly improved and that's despite losing David Price! Among American League teams, only Cleveland has given up fewer runs per game. Happ's emergence has a lot to do with that. Yes, I'm well aware the team has lost his last two starts after he hadn't dropped a decision since June 6th. But it was still a quality start his last time out, making it eight of those in his L10 outings. Happ has a 2.68 ERA and 1.031 WHIP his L7 starts overall and that includes six shutout innings of four-hit ball against the Rays. Tampa Bay had just two hits through five innings yday.

A major reason why the Rays currently sit near the bottom in net units has been their record w/ Chris Archer on the hill. They are just 9-19 in his starts, resulting in a little over half their total losses at the betting window (-12.6 units). Archer's presence still keeps the price down for this one, which I like. Archer has been a bit stronger of late and while he did beat Happ back in April, I fully anticipate a different result this time around. Archer still has a 4.10 ERA for the year. The Blue Jays have typically been a strong team in day games, going 30-21 w/ the offense averaging 5.4 rpg. 9* Toronto

10* Arizona (10:30 ET): The Pac 12 South was supposed to challenge the SEC West as the "it" division in 2015. That did not happen as two of the four favorites regressed. One was Arizona, who went from playing for the Conference Championship to 7-6 SU. But I look for Rich Rod to improve his Wildcats in his fifth year here in Tucson. I don't see them changing the fact that they are the ONLY of the original 10 teams in the conference never to make a Rose Bowl. But I certainly have them winning more games in 2016. Rich Rod has 15 starters back, including eight on a defense which should be much improved. Rodriguez is being coy about who the starters will be at QB and RB, but I think that puts the opponent at a disadvantage.

BYU's 2015 season got off to a miraculous start w/ a Hail Mary completion to beat Nebraska (in Lincoln) followed by a win over Boise State that was a lot closer than the 35-24 final score would seem to indicate. But they really weren't that impressive after that. It's a changing of the guard in Provo as Bronco Mendenhall has departed (for Virginia) after 11 seasons at the helm. He'll be replaced by a 1st time HC (Kalane Sitake), who previously served as the DC at both Utah and Oregon State. Running the offense will be legendary Cougars QB Ty Detmer, but this is his first time coordinating at the college level and last year he was the coach of a high school team! Brigham Young figures to not have the injury troubles that they had a year ago, but a new coaching staff coupled w/ six Power 5 teams on the schedule should lead to a decline in the # of wins. They probably won't enjoy some of the same great fortune in close games either.

I also hate the way this game sets up for BYU. They have rival Utah on deck and after being stomped in LY's Las Vegas Bowl, it's been five straight losses in the "Holy War." A new coaching staff dealing w/ a major lookahead spot is a double whammy. Meanwhile, Arizona has only Grambling State on deck (nothing to worry about there). While this isn't a "true" home game for the Wildcats, it is being played in nearby Glendale. Including the loss to Utah in the Bowl, BYU was 0-2 vs. the Pac 12 last year. Way too short of a number for the de facto home team. 10* Arizona

8* Auburn (9:00 ET): Clemson is the favorite of many to win the College Football Playoff. They were the runner-up last year, losing a close game to Alabama (I cashed them plus the points!), 45-40. This year's squad returns eight starters on offense, QB DeShaun Watson among them, and he's projected as a Heisman frontrunner and possible #1 overall DC by the NFL next Spring. But the Tigers enjoyed a lot of great fortune along the way last season, including four wins by eight points or less. They also played just three ranked opponents prior to Alabama and none of those were "true" road games. This year's opener is and HC Dabo Swinney is just 1-5 SU all-time at SEC venues. This is a lot of a points for Auburn to be getting at Jordan-Hare and I'm taking them.

Auburn was actually the media pick to win the entire SEC last year as they opened #6 in the polls. Boy, was that a terrible projection. I went against them in LY's season opener as they were caught laying double digits to Louisville at a neutral setting (Atlanta). These Tigers ended up falling flat on their face and finished only 7-6 SU after winning the Birmingham Bowl over Memphis (not where they expected to finish their season!). But expectations are now relatively low for Gus Malazahn this year and I think that helps. No one is picking them to finish higher than fourth in the rugged SEC West. But I have them certainly winning more games than they did in 2015 and it starts w/ the fact they'll get better QB play w/ Sean White, who started five games last year.

Auburn was a home dog twice last season and didn't cover either game, against Ole Miss or Alabama. Clemson absolutely deserves to be favored here, but it's interesting to note that the line is dropping despite the ticket count. Note that in his first two seasons, Malzahn was a perfect 2-0 ATS taking points at Jordan-Hare. Other than 'Bama, who commands more respect in the marketplace than any other school, he's never gotten a TD or more to work with from the linesmakers. Call me a little more "bearish" in regards to Clemson than others, but I predict that this will be a very close game. 8* Auburn  

8* Colorado (8:10 ET): Things certainly did not look great for the Rockies early on yday as they trailed the division rival D'backs 5-0 after four innings. However, on the strength of two huge innings - a six-run fifth and a seven-run eighth, it ended up being a 14-7 win here at Coors Field. I've said before that Colorado is a better team than its record shows. They've actually outscored their opponents by 31 runs over the course of the season. That's a better run differential than Texas (+24), who sits atop the American League standings w/ an 81-54 record! It's been B2B seven-run wins for the Rocks, who have now won five of six overall. Meanwhile, Arizona sits at the bottom of the NL West (56-78) and another loss like yday's could potentially give them the worst run differential in the sport (currently -143). Colorado is now 9-5 head to head this season vs. Arizona.

Tyler Chatwood will toe the rubber for the Rockies tonight. He's been significantly better when pitching outside of Coors Field this year, but who isn't? Perennially, Chatwood had been one of the top pitchers to bet AGAINST. But, on the road this year, he's posted an 8-2 TSR w/ a 1.82 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. He wasn't too shabby his last start at home either; giving up just two runs and five hits in 6 2/3 IP vs. Texas. This is his first start back from a short stint on the DL due to a mild back strain. Arizona seems like an ideal opponent for his return as he's 4-1 all-time against them w/ a 3.75 ERA. This will be his fourth time facing them in 2016. Twice he's turned in a quality start.

While Chatwood may regress when starting at home, we know that his offense always improves. This is the top scoring home team in all of baseball (6.5 rpg). There's a bigger gap in scoring at home between them and the #6 team than there is between the #6 team (Baltimore) and #29! The Rockies average roughly two more runs per game at home compared to on the road. The L4 games have seen them score a total of 37 runs, more than nine per game. None of this is a good sign for Arizona starter Brandon Shipley, who already has a 7.27 ERA and 1.558 WHIP his L3 starts. That's facing the Padres, Mets and Reds, three of the NL's weaker offenses. Another big win for the home team Saturday night. 8* Colorado

8* Alabama (8:00 ET): This is the big marquee matchup in primetime on Saturday and it is being billed as a 'playoff-type' matchup. I disagree as USC simply is not in the same class as defending National Champion Alabama. Consider that the Trojans went just 8-6 SU a year ago. In all due respect, I do not think Clay Helton was the right hire, even though he did do a nice job as the interim last year. But just ask West Virginia how the Bill Stewart experiment worked out. I'm not saying this will end up that poorly, but this is easily Helton's biggest test as a head coach. While he's certainly had adequate time to prepare, he has to match wits against Nick Saban w/ a first-time starting QB (Max Browne). The fact that some are hyping this as one of Saban's best defenses ever in Tuscaloosa should be a very scary proposition for the underdog. Lay the points.

Bama also has a bit of a question mark under center as they'll likely platoon Cooper Bateman and Blake Barnett. But inexperience at QB has never stopped Saban before. All four times he's won the National Championship, he's done so w/ a 1st year starter at QB, including Jake Coker last year. As for the defense, look out. Since 2009, the most points allowed per game by the Crimson Tide was 18.4. Last year, that number was down to 15.1 and while there's only five returning starters, four of them are likely NFL Draft picks. Yes, former DC Kirby Smart has left (to become HC at Georgia), but he's been replaced "in house" by Jeremy Pruitt (was on the Saban staff for 6 years before successful stints w/ Florida and Georgia). I certainly expect his unit to make life difficult for Browne Saturday night.

Alabama is accustomed to these neutral site openers. This will be the fifth year in a row they open the season in that environment and they've won the previous four by an average of 20 points per game! Last year, it was a 35-17 win over #20 Wisconsin. USC, on the other hand, has not played a neutral site regular season game since 2012. Last year saw the Trojans played four ranked teams away from home and they lost to all four, three of those losses coming by double digits. As an underdog, USC is just 2-5 SU/ATS the L3 seasons. 8* Alabama

10* Rutgers (2:00 ET): Washington has become a VERY trendy pick to win the Pac 12 this year. I readily admit I have them in that discussion as well (they are my pick to win the North Division). But, it appears as if the hype has been placed "in front of the horse" so to speak w/ this line for the season opener against what should be a much improved Rutgers squad. The linesmakers know just how high people are on this Huskies team in Chris Petersen's third year up in Seattle. Thus, we have an inflated number that we can take advantage of. Note UW has not had a 10-win season since 1991 (shared Nat'l Title). There has been only one year w/ more than eight victories in the past decade. I'd be absolutely shocked if they lost outright on Saturday, but the game will be "closer than the experts think." Take the points.

Rutgers begins 2016 w/ a new HC and a new lease on life. Gone is Kyle Flood after a tumultuous last season, which saw him get suspended for three games and then ultimately fired. In comes Chris Ash, who was the co-OC at Ohio State the L2 years, so he knows success and the Big 10 well. Ash inherits 16 starters, so this is not a bad situation that he's stepping into. Having nine starters back on offense, including Jr QB Chris Laviano, is huge and the expectation is for a faster tempo under Ash's direction. A 4-8 ATS record last year was a byproduct of losing two games close in which they were favored. One was against a Washington State team (UW's main rival) that they had beaten in Seattle the year prior! So, the Pacific Northwest has been kind to the Scarlet Knights in the past.

Let's get back to Washington and the size of this line, shall we? Last year's team was not favored by more than 15 points in any game against a FCS opponent. That 15-point spread came against an Oregon State team that finished winless in the conference. The last time a Huskies team was favored by this many points against a FBS foe was 2014 vs. Georgia State, a team that had just made the jump to this level. As 34-pt chalk, the Huskies failed to cover in Petersen's fourth ever game here. So this is real "rarefied air" for the program and I'm simply not willing to endorse them in this price range just yet. 10* Rutgers

10* Oklahoma (12:00 ET): Every year, one non-"Power 5" school is anointed as a potential "party crasher" for the CFP or formerly BCS. While it is true that these other "Group of 5" schools are guaranteed one spot in a major "New Year's Day" bowl game, the likelihood of them making the Final Four is very slim. However, if one team were to pull off the feat in 2016, the consensus seems to be that it would be Houston. In 2015, the Cougars went 13-1 SU and romped Florida State in the Peach Bowl. But, in terms of wins and losses, I see the program taking a step back in Tom Hermann's second year as they probably won't be as fortunate to win three games by three points or less again, plus they're not going to be sneaking up on anyone this year, certainly not Oklahoma in this season opener. I'm laying the points.

Oklahoma is a team w/ legitimate CFP aspirations. They, of course, made it last year. But just like in 2014, their season ended w/ a very disappointing loss at the hands of Clemson. The Sooners' only other loss last year came at the hands of Texas (I was on the Longhorns!) in what was considered a real shocker at the time. However, it was not shocking to me that OU made it to the final four as I had a ticket on them at +800. This year sees 15 starters back for HC Bob Stoops, now in his 18th year at Norman. The offense averaged a whopping 43.5 PPG last year (7-year high) and both QB Mayfield (3700 yds, 37-6 TD-INT) and RB Perine (1375 yds, 16 TDs) are back. Meanwhile, the defense allowed just 22.0 PPG last year and should be just fine.

I think most will look at this matchup, a battle of Top 15 teams, and think taking the points is the way to go. But that's typically not a prudent strategy. These teams are much further apart than the unreliable preseason polls seem to indicate. Yes, Houston beat four ranked opponents last season, three of them by double digits. But little should be made of the Peach Bowl (where Florida State no-showed) and the other three games were against teams from the AAC. Oklahoma will be the toughest opponent of the Herman era. I anticipate a win in the neighborhood of three touchdowns here! 10* Oklahoma

10* Over Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): There's no sugarcoating what ended up being a horrific series for the Mariners in Texas. They were swept down in Arlington, including a brutal 8-7 walkoff loss on Tuesday followed by a 14-1 beatdown on Wednesday. Still, they are only 3.5 games back of the second Wild Card in the American League (though the field has become increasingly crowded). I had entertained the notion of taking them in this spot, but starter Ariel Miranda has me leery. It's not Miranda's "rights," but rather his numbers (4.79 ERA, 1.403 WHIP). The team has also lost all four of his starts. At the same time, I'm not about to endorse the sorry Angels w/ Brett Oberholtzer on the hill. Therefore, I'll look to the Over for what I anticipate will be a relatively high-scoring affair.

Don't be fooled by the fact that the Angels come into this series riding a five-game win streak. They were fortunate to host the lowly Reds earlier this week and that was obviously an easy sweep. Over the L7 games, LA has allowed an average of less than 2.0 rpg, but now that they're back on the road, expect that number to go way up. For the year, they allow 4.7 rpg away from home. Oberholtzer has made just the one start in 2016, last Saturday in Detroit, and he lasted only three innings, giving up a homer. He has some nice career marks vs. Seattle, but I still don't trust him. Another issue for the Halos here is that they have no closer. They just sent Fernando Salas to the Mets yday. That could result in some late scoring from the home side tonight.

Miranda lasted only four innings himself his last time out, giving up three runs in Chicago. He's yet to go longer than six in any start. As far as the overall team is concerned, the Over was a perfect 3-0 against Texas w/ Seattle pitching allowing a total of 28 runs in the three games. They've allowed at least five runs in eight of their last 10 games. Miranda will have to deal with Mike Trout, who is still having a great season in spite of his team. He is top five in the American League in batting average, runs scored, stolen bases and OPS. The Over is 45-30-3 in games where Seattle is favored this season. 10* Over Angels/Mariners

8* Kansas City (8:15 ET): Two key edges for the Royals in this divisional tilt. One is that they are at home. They're 41-23 at Kauffman Stadium, a home record that is right in line w/ the top teams in the American League. It has been a 28-41 road record that has kept them on the fringes of contention all year long. The other edge is Danny Duffy will be on the hill. Prior to losing his last start (at Boston), Duffy had not been beaten since June 6th. He was 10-0 over 14 starts w/ the team winning 11 in a row before the loss on Saturday. The Royals just swept the Tigers earlier this month (in Detroit!) and while you'd think the revenge angle "counts for something," the fact is Detroit is overmatched in the opener of this three-game set. Take Kansas City.

Duffy did pitch at Comerica Park on August 16th and shut down the Tigers for 7 2/3 innings, allowing only one run on three hits. It was his third time facing Detroit this season and he's gone 2-0 w/ one no-decision. Ironically, both wins came on the road. Here at home though, Duffy has essentially been "lights out" all year w/ a 10-1 TSR, 3.01 ERA and 1.078 WHIP. He personally has not lost a decision, going 6-0. Since the All-Star Break, his KW rate is 55-14 KW and he'd allowed 3 ER or less in seven straight starts prior to Saturday. I certainly like him over Anibal Sanchez, whose 5-17 team start record makes him the worst pitcher to bet on in all of baseball this year (-12.8 units). He has a 8.01 ERA and 1.675 WHIP on the road (11 starts, 2-9 TSR). Duffy, for the sake of comparison, is #2 in net units earned at +12.8. So the chasm that exists here between the two starting pitchers is about as big as it gets. Sanchez did pitch very well vs. KC back on August 17th, but it was all for naught as the Tigers still ended up losing the game 4-1. I don't think Sanchez will be able to duplicate that performance where he held the Royals lineup to only one hit over seven innings. 

Prior to losing the last two games, the Royals had been a hot team. They'd won seven consecutive series and 18 of 22 games. Note that 5-4 losses to the Yankees on Tuesday and Wednesday both came in extra innings. They are 9-4 head to head with the Tigers in 2016, including 5-2 here at home. The Tigers have been hot themselves, but the pitching mismatch is too severe for them to overcome. 8* Kansas City

10* Colorado (8:00 ET): It's been a long time since Colorado was good. They haven't been to a bowl since '07 and haven't had a winning record since '05. In three years under Mike MacIntyre, they have never won more than four games and are just 2-25 SU in Pac 12 play. But with 18 returning starters back for '16, I think MacIntyre clearly has his best team yet in Boulder. He generally has been getting the Buffs more competitive, at least in conference play where eight of the team's L17 losses have been by a one score margin. QB Sefu Liufao leads 23 scholarship seniors (most the program has had in L10 seasons) overall and the defense has improved every year (in terms of PPG allowed) under HC MacIntyre. 

In this Rocky Mountain state rivalry, Colorado State has the "younger brother syndrome." That's interesting because they've been the far more successful program compared to Colorado, at least recently. The Rams have gone 25-15 SU the L3 seasons including a 10-win campaign in 2014. They regressed to 7-6 last season as Jim McElwain left for Florida and was replaced by Mike Bobo. For a second straight year, Bobo won't have many returning starters. He has just 10 this year, which is fewer than last year (15). Some factors are pointing up in Fort Collins as the Rams should have a better TO margin this year. But, compared to Colorado, this is a very inexperienced squad. Remember the 23 scholarship seniors Colorado has? CSU has only nine.

This in-state rivalry has been played every year since 1995 and has been held at a neutral site (Denver) the L6 years. Each of the last two years have seen one team race out to a double-digit lead only to lose the game straight up. Last year, it was CSU going up 14-0 at the end of the first quarter, but they ended up losing 27-24 in overtime. It was actually the second week in a row losing in OT (23-20 vs. Minnesota the week prior). The Rams did have the total yardage edge over CU, 500-345. While CSU has not beaten CU B2B years since 1999-2000, the Buffs are 10-5 SU in the rivalry since that time despite some lean years. Sharp money seems to be on Colorado here w/ the way the line has been bet up. Since '14, they are 4-1 ATS laying more than a touchdown.  10* Colorado

10* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am laying the -1.5 w/ the Indians. These teams met in 1997 World Series with Miami (then "Florida") winning in seven games. They haven't met many times since. This will be the Marlins first time traveling to Cleveland since 2012. It's not as if Cleveland needed any added edges for this series opener, but another one is that they had Thursday off while Miami was playing in New York. That was a big win for the Marlins yday as it kept them within three games of the second Wild Card in the National League. But this club has been fading in recent weeks and had lost five in a row prior to yday's 6-4 victory. Injuries have taken a major toll. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna is the latest player to go down. Meanwhile, Cleveland is looking to put away the rest of the competition in the American League Central. They're big favorites on the money line, which is why we're going the RL route here and I believe they'll dominate tonight's lone Interleague matchup.

Carlos Carrasco will take the mound for the Tribe here. He's looking to rebound from a rare shaky effort where he allowed seven runs to the Rangers. However, only three of those runs were earned. Carrasco's KW rate remains very strong of late (36-1 L4 starts!). He'd thrown eight scoreless inning of four-hit ball at Oakland in the start prior to the one at Texas. He has really good numbers for the season (3.23 ERA, 1.101 WHIP). That WHIP ranks in the top 10 in the American League. So, I do anticipate the bounce back tonight. Miami has obviously never faced him before and any edge they might enjoy w/ the addition of the DH to the lineup (AL park) is nullified by all the injuries. Remember that cleanup man Giancarlo Stanton is still out as well. This offense averaged only 3.5 rpg during a 10-18 month of August.

The Marlins are forced to counter Carrasco w/ Andrew Cashner, who is looking more and more like an ill-conceived pickup at the deadline. Since the trade from San Diego, Cashner has lost all three of his starts thanks to a 1.812 WHIP. He has more walks than strikeouts in those three starts, which is never a good sign. He's made some appearances out of the bullpen as well. But the bottom line is that Cashner is winless in 10 road starts this season (2-8 TSR) w/ a 6.45 ERA and 1.567 WHIP. The Indians are the third highest scoring home team in all of baseball (5.7 rpg), trailing only Colorado and Boston. 10* Run Line Cleveland (-1.5).

10* Oregon State (9:00 ET): Wait a minute. Don't I have a play on Minnesota to finish Over its season win total (of 6.0)? Yes, I do. But even if they win this game as expected, it doesn't mean that they will cover. The number that the Golden Gophers are now laying has been bet up several points from the opening line, creating a situation where there is plenty of value on the other side. Despite a 5-7 SU regular season, Minnesota did make a bowl last year for interim (now permanent) HC Tracy Claeys. While I am projecting improvement here, let's note that this is a program unaccustomed to laying double digits. They were asked to do so only twice last year and won both games only by a field goal. Those were games against MAC schools, Kent and Ohio. 

Oregon State can only go up for 2nd year HC Gary Andersen. Little did Andersen know what he was getting into when he left Utah State for Corvallis. Last year, the Beavers went just 2-10 w/ one of those victories coming against a FCS school (Weber State) in the opener. They were just bludgeoned throughout the Pac 12 portion of the schedule. But that was a very inexperienced team that Andersen inherited. This year, he has 13 starters back and figures to get much better play at the QB position from Darrell Garretson, who followed Andersen from Utah State. After such an embarrassing season last year, I expect a very motivated OSU squad here. It helps that they don't have a game next week. This being a night game gives them a bit of a Circadian advantage (google it!) and is preferable to having to play an early Saturday afternoon game.

Minnesota had just ONE double digit win all of last season. It came at Purdue, 41-13. I think expectations are little too high from the Golden Gophers' perspective for this opener. Also, one of their top two running backs is injured. There is just no reason for the number to move as much as it has. Take the points   10* Oregon State

10* Vanderbilt (8:00 ET): Along with Kentucky, these are two of the three 'also-rans' in the SEC. Of course, that status is something new for South Carolina. Last year marked the end of an era in Columbia as the "Ol' Ball Coach" Steve Spurrier stepped down mid-season and the program proceeded to do a complete faceplant. The Gamecocks dropped seven of their final eight games including the last five. Conventional wisdom would have them bouncing back in 2016, but Spurrier has left a real mess here w/ only nine returning starters. 1st year HC Will Muschamp couldn't get the job done at Florida (HC there from 2011-14) where he had more talent. Therefore, expect growing pains in year number one of his regime. USC was outgained by a league worst 109.4 YPG in SEC play last year. 

Vandy, who is perennially at the bottom of the division, has struggled in the first two years under HC Derek Mason. But for the first time since James Franklin ditched them for "greener pastures" (Penn State), there is some reason for optimism with the Commodores. The team was much more competitive in 2015 compared to '14 and suffered two losses by exactly two points, one of them at eventual SEC East Champ Florida. Now they have 15 starters back. The defense went from allowing 33.3 PPG in Mason's 1st year to 21.0 LY and ranked in the top 10 nationally in terms of efficiency. QB Kyle Shurmur, a sophomore, now has experience under his belt after starting five of the final six games last year.

South Carolina has beaten Vanderbilt seven straight times by an average of 10.0 PPG. Overall, they are 21-4 straight up all-time in the rivalry. But last year marked a relatively close affair w/ the Gamecocks prevailing only 19-10 as one-point home favorites. That was their first game w/o Spurrier and the turnover margin was +3. . I feel that the Commies will be hungry for revenge this year and don't discount the impact of ESPN rolling onto campus might have. The last time USC had to come to Nashville, they trailed 14-0 early. Another big key here is Vandy RB Ralph Webb (2,000+ yds rushing L2 seasons) going against a South Carolina defense that will be w/o star LB Skai Moore. 10* Vanderbilt