10* Over Bruins/Panthers (7:35 ET): Both of these teams snapped three-game losing streaks their respective last times out. Boston did so in very low scoring fashion, by beating Detroit 1-0. Florida, however, scored five times in a win at Detroit. Both clubs now have four wins and four losses to their credit, though the Panthers are a point ahead in the Atlantic due to an OT loss. This projects as a seemingly even matchup on paper, thus I'm disregarding the side and turning my attention to the total. While neither side has been particularly adept at lighting the lamp so far, the Bruins have certainly given up their fair share and the Panthers did just match their highest scoring game of the season to date and are getting plenty of shots on goal, particularly at home. Take the Over.

Boston started this season w/ a six-goal effort in a win over Columbus, but subsequently has scored only 12 times total in the last seven games combined. The last three have been particularly anemic efforts w/ just three goals scored total. Right now, they rank 26th in goals per game, not to mention dead last (30th) on the power play. Where then does the scoring come from, you ask? Well, I say these Bruins are simply due to break through as they had 36 shots on goal against the Red Wings. Opposing goaltenders have posted a .924 save percentage this season against Boston, including .953 the L4 games. That seems pretty unsustainable to me. Note that the Over is 17-10 for Boston the L3 seasons if they scored 1 goal or less the previous game. 

Speaking of save percentage, Bruins' goaltender Tuuka Rask has been excellent in that department this season at .958, not to mention he has a 1.25 goals against average. But the problem for the team was that he'd missed three games and they were outscored 14-4 during that stretch. He returned to shutout the Red Wings, but figures to be under heavy fire here from a Florida side which is averaging 34.5 shots per game at home this season. On the other end of the ice, Panthers goalie Roberto Luongo only has an .891 save percentage his L4 starts. The Panthers' penalty kill ranks just 25th by the way. 10* Over Bruins/Panthers

9* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): The Rangers dominated an early season showdown w/ Tampa Bay on Sunday, winning 6-1. It was their fourth win in the past five games and they now trail Pittsburgh by just one point in the Metro. The team's +13 goal differential is also second best in the Eastern Conference, behind only Montreal. With all six wins this year coming in regulation, this is a club clearly in good form and I like their chances tonight against a St. Louis side that has scored a total of only three goals in its last three games. Go w/ the Blueshirts here.

The Blues' offensive woes actually extend past just these last three games. They've scored exactly one goal in five of the last six games overall. The exception was a 6-4 win over Calgary, who has one of the worst save percentages in the entire league right now. Thanks to an outstanding effort between the pipes from Jake Allen on Saturday, they were able to beat a struggling Los Angeles team, 1-0. But the other four times they've scored just one time have all been losses. While 5-2-2 this year (just two regulation losses), the Blues have a goal differential of just +1, so they haven't been nearly as dominant as the Rangers despite the similar point totals. They did beat the Rangers 3-2, at home, earlier this year. But not the Rangers owned a rather decisive 35-18 edge in shots in that one.

That edge in shots came about due to the Rangers outshooting the Blues 15-0 in the third period. New York had to be kicking itself for its failure to get the 'W' in that one as St. Louis was down three key players, yet Carter Hutton played one of his best games ever in goal. The Rangers come in leading the league in goals per game (3.9) and have seven different players that have scored at least three times this season. Contrast that w/ the Blues, who have only four players w/ three goals. I look for the Rangers' speed to be a big difference maker in this rematch. Jake Allen is likely to again get the nod for St. Louis in goal and he's been shaky on the road thus far (.894 save percentage). Meanwhile, Henrik Lundqvist has been his normal solid self (.913 at home) for the Rangers. 9* NY Rangers

10* Chicago (8:25 ET): This is quite the interesting game to handicap. We have one of the league's perceived best teams (Vikings) laying a short number to one of the perceived worst (Bears) and predictably the majority of bettors are all over the road chalk in this one. But alarm bells should be going off when you see how the line has moved throughout the week. This appears to be a classic "pros vs. joes" matchup w/ the sharp dollars on the home dog. If you're a regular client/follower of mine, then you already know that I'm a firm believer in the idea of regression to the mean. Well, Minnesota is 18-4 ATS its L22 games. But last week found them in this exact same role of road chalk and they lost outright at Philadelphia. As the public continues "warming up" to the Vikes, I predict that sparkling ATS record to take a significant hit. Meanwhile, the Bears are a dreadful 1-6 SU/ATS this year and going back to last season, just 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS at home! These respective numbers HAVE to start moving closer to the average, no? I'm taking the points.

The big story w/ Chicago is that Jay Cutler is back as the starting QB. Though Brian Hoyer put up some big numbers in Cutler's absence, they didn't necessarily mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Cutler is also a clear upgrade over the only other QB option, Matt Barkley, who had to go most of the way in the team's loss last week to Green Bay. Of interest here is that the Bears have had a long time to prepare for this game, going from a Thursday night game to a Monday night affair. While this Bears offense may rank dead last in the league in points per game (15.9), they're actually a respectable 18th in yards per game, which tells me they've left many scoring opportunities "on the table." This offense is actually a lot better than its given credit for as is evident by the fact it rolled up over 900 yards in close losses to the Colts and Jaguars.

Meanwhile, this Minnesota offense is nowhere near as good as its given credit for. With Adrian Peterson out of the lineup, the running game has become persona non grata, averaging only 74.3 YPG. Their season high for yards on the ground in a game is a paltry 104. They are last in the league at 2.6 yds per carry. The offensive line is not particularly good. I'm not ready to anoint QB Sam Bradford as anything special either. He looked like the "old Bradford" in LW's loss at Philly. In three road games this year, the Vikings have scored a total of TWO offensive TD's and one came in garbage time (0:37 left) LW. This team is a very pedestrian 12th in YPG differential (Chicago is 17th!). In what projects as a low-scoring game, taking the points is the obvious way to go. 10* Chicago

8* Under Bulls/Nets (7:35 ET): For whatever reason, the Bulls always seem to go Over the total when facing teams from the Atlantic Division (27-8-2 Over L37 games). That includes all three meetings last year vs. the Nets, which saw 215, 207 and 220 total pts scored. All but one resulted in a Chicago victory and oddsmakers didn't really adjust the total properly until the last meeting, which ironically ended up being the highest scoring of the bunch (118-102 Bulls win) anyway. We have a similar number attached to the first meeting of 2016-17, but I feel its still a little "too high" for this early in the season. Looking at those three matchups from last season, Brooklyn shot remarkably well from the FT line (50-62) and I don't see them duplicating that here. Nor will the Bulls duplicate their hot 3-pt shooting (34 of 78) from those three games either. Take the Under.

Chicago has undergone somewhat of a massive transformation in the offseason. Though they're 2-0 SU, I do not like the makeup of this team at all w/ Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler. I do not see this team matching its 52% shooting from the last game, a 118-101 rout of Indiana. So far, Wade and Butler have combined for 76 points. Rondo dished out 13 assists vs. the Pacers and Doug McDermott made 9 of 14 shots en route to 23 points. I just don't see those kinds of numbers as sustainable. The team shot only 39.1% from the floor against Boston. Of note is that this is the Bulls' first road game of the season. They are 4-1 Under the L2 seasons when the total is 210+ points.

Brooklyn is hoisting a lot more three-pointers this year, but only connecting at a 32.1% clip. This is just the second time in franchise history that they've attempted 30+ three-pointers in three consecutive games. They were 11 of 35 from behind the arc in Saturday's 110-108 loss to Milwaukee. That game was decided at the buzzer on a John Henson tip in. The Nets' one home game thus far saw them play some pretty good defense as they held Indiana to only 94 points on 37.8% shooting, which included 7 of 24 from three-point range. Look for a lower scoring game than expected here. 8* Under Bulls/Nets

8* Over Senators/Oilers (9:05 ET): Last year, not a single Canadian franchise qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We're less than a month into the 2016-17 campaign, but already we have a few teams busily working to ensure we don't see a repeat of that dubious "achievement." The biggest surprise of all is Edmonton, who currently leads the Pacific Division and Western Conference w/ 14 points. The Oilers are 7-1 and have won five straight coming into Sunday when they will host Ottawa. For the Senators, this marks the end of the dreaded Western Canada road trip as they've played Vancouver and Calgary. But unlike many teams, they've had plenty of time between games. Take the Over in this one.

Edmonton also just played Vancouver. Like Ottawa, they won in shutout fashion. In their case, it was a 2-0 final, which was their second shutout in the last three games overall. During this five-game win streak, they've allowed only four goals total. That's after allowing 13 goals in the first three games. Cam Talbot has been on fire of late w/ a .984 save percentage his L4 games, which is both incredibly impressive and unsustainable. Every game during this Oilers' win streak has also stayed Under, due in large part to the goaltending, but can that continue w/ them allowing an average of 32.0 shots per game? I think not. Right now, the club is top six in the league in most shots/game allowed, so they're lucky they haven't given up more goals.

Ottawa allowed the most shots per game last season (32.8), but they've worked to decrease that number so far in 2016. Unfortunately though, their goaltending has failed them w/ an awful .874 save percentage, which actually gets even worse on the road (.848!). As a result, we're likely to see Chris Driedger making his first start so far. It's a rough situation right now as #1 netminder, Craig Anderson, has left the team to be with his wife, who was diagnosed with cancer. Backup Andrew Hammond sustained a lower body injury in the team's 5-2 loss at Calgary. Driedger gave up four goals on just 15 shots in relief in that game and will be facing a team here that has scored 29 times in just eight games. 8* Over Senators/Oilers

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): If I go down, I might as well go down w/ the ship. It appears as if the Indians "can do no wrong" in this year's World Series as they are now one win away from capturing what would be Cleveland's second World Championship in less than five months. Previously, the city had gone over 50 years w/o one - in any sport! Meanwhile, the Cubs are clearly gripping as their scuffling lineup has managed only seven runs in the four games so far. But five of them came in the lone win (Game 2) and they'll be facing that starting pitcher (Trevor Bauer) again as they attempt to stave off elimination. Even if they do lose the WS, I still maintain that the Cubs were the better team on paper here. I cannot see them losing all three games at Wrigley.

Let's go back to my play on the Cubs in Game 4 of the NLCS. There, they were coming off B2B losses, both shutouts. But I was quick to point out the fact they'd gone 5-0 off B2B losses since a 1-8 swoon in early July. Well, as we now know, you can make that record a perfect 6-0. The Cubs have what I believe is the perfect "stopper" on the mound for this situation and that's Jon Lester. Yes, the Indians ability to run gave him trouble in the Game 1 loss. But now he's pitching at home where his TSR is 15-2 for the year. Lester has a 1.61 ERA and 0.869 WHIP here at the Friendly Confines. Again I'll note that theoretically Cubs pitchers should be benefiting from the fact the Cleveland lineup is w/o the DH. That lineup, even after yday, is still only batting a collective .211 its L7 games.

I went against Bauer back in Game 2 and for good reason. He is still battling an issue w/ his finger after slicing it repairing a drone. In three postseason starts, Bauer has a 1.776 WHIP and has yet to even go a full five innings. That latter issue is somewhat mitigated by the Indians' outstanding bullpen, but hopefully the Cubs can get out to an early lead here. Bauer is clearly the weak link in this Indians' rotation. While one can make the case that the Cubs are overvalued tonight, that doesn't change the fact that I still think they will win. 6* Chi Cubs

8* LA Lakers (7:05 ET): Though Bryant himself was terrible last year, the expectation was for the post-Kobe era Lakers to really struggle this year. Instead, they opened the campaign w/ a surprise win at home (over Houston) and then covered the spread at Utah Friday night. Here, we find them making the trip to OKC and I feel the value is on them as the dog. OKC is 2-0 SU, but also 0-2 ATS as the numbers vs. both Philadelphia and Phoenix proved to be too much. The Thunder are of course also dealing w/ a major offseason departure, that being Kevin Durant. While Russell Westbrook and a formidable frontcourt will be enough to keep them near the top of the Western Conference, it appears as if that's not enough to cover spreads against the teams perceived to be at the bottom of the league. Take the points.

In fact, at home, the Thunder were taken to overtime by Phoenix on Friday night. It took 51 points and a triple double from Russell Westbrook to get the 'W.' It was the first time since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1974-75 that we saw a player acheive a triple-double w/ at least 50 points. Such a performance from Westbrook might be both a "blessing and a curse" for OKC this year. While obviously a talented player that's capable of carrying this team to 50+ wins, Westbrook figures to dominate the ball a bit too much and that likely will lead to a few "bad" performances as well throughout the season. The team could become too reliant and the offense too stagnant. Consider only one other player was in double figures Fri night (Victor Oladipo). The team shot just 41.7% from the floor w/ Westbrook taking 44 of the team's 96 attempts.

The Lakers have not beaten the Thunder since March of 2014. That's eight consecutive losses and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in those matchups as well. Last year, they were a double digit dog in all four and covered only once. Despite that, there's no denying that the Lakers look like a better team so far in 2016. While OKC figures to have one player dominate the ball, LA is now "done with that" as Bryant thankfully retired. 8* LA Lakers

10* San Diego (4:05 ET): More often than not, I've been on the Chargers this year. This play will make it four straight weeks. I've cashed them each of the last three, including B2B outright wins over Denver and Atlanta. Save for a 38-14 blowout of lowly Jacksonville in Week 2 (which I was also on!), every Chargers game this year has been close. As in decided by one possession. Their largest loss this year is six points and that was an overtime game (Week 1 vs. KC) where they blew a 27-10 fourth quarter lead. I'll continue to stump that this team is better than its overall record (now 3-4 SU) as they have a YTD point differential of +21, which is better than all but nine teams in this league. They really dominated Denver at home and are capable of beating them again. Take the points.

That Week 6 win over the Broncos, which came as 3.5-pt underdogs on a Thursday night, really saw San Diego assert itself from the start. They never trailed and actually led 21-3 early in the fourth quarter. This being the Chargers, they led Denver back in it and things got far too close for comfort by the end. It ended up a 21-13 win after a Denver Hail Mary attempt fell short. Now, Broncos supporters will want to point to the absence of HC Gary Kubiak from the sidelines in that one. But I've never been one to rate Kubiak as one of the stronger coaches in the league. I still think SD is due to start winning more division games; the win two weeks ago snapped a 10-game SU losing streak to AFC West foes. Their last road division win came over Oakland back in 2014. Isn't it about time for that to change?

Last week, when I took SD over Atlanta, I noted the bad situation the Falcons found themselves in. They were off a tough, close loss at Seattle the week prior. Playing the Seahawks often has a negative carryover effect to the following game because they are so physical. Well, here, Denver is working on a short week as they played Monday night. Though the defense re-established itself in the 27-9 win over Houston, Trevor Siemian and the offense really didn't impress. Now that group is w/o starting RB CJ Anderson. The Broncos also have injury issues on the defensive side of the ball. San Diego has its own injury issues, but have already demonstrated an ability to overcome them. They've also demonstrated an ability to cover as underdogs, particularly on the road when priced between +3.5 and +7. They're 7-0 ATS L7 in that role. San Diego was my pick for most improved this season while I had Denver regressing. I'm not coming off either point. 10* San Diego

10* Under Raiders/Bucs (1:00 ET): Here we have two teams that are nowhere good as their respective records might indicate. Oakland is 5-2, tied w/ Denver atop the AFC West. But that's despite ranking dead last in the league in yards per play and yards per game allowed and having a point differential of only +6 (worst in their division). The Silver and Black are off perhaps their most complete game of the year, a 33-16 win over Jacksonville that kept their road record perfect (now 4-0). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has not won a home game, but is somehow 3-3 SU, even though their YTD point differential is -33! They too are off their most complete win of the year, 33-17 at San Francisco last week. Obviously, I'll steer clear of the side here, which means I'm going total, but not the way you're likely thinking.

The Bucs' defense is coming off B2B strong efforts. They forced seven turnovers in wins over Carolina and San Francisco. Last week, they fell behind 14-0 early, but held the 49ers to just 181 yards after that. Even in a 27-7 loss to Denver three weeks ago, the D gave up just over 300 yards. This week, though they'll be facing a Raiders offense that scored 33 pts last week, it gained a rather pedestrian 344 total yards. Thanks to three Jacksonville turnovers in that game, Oakland got a number of chances to work with "short fields." They had three scoring drives (13 points total) of 25 yards or less. The Under is 11-7 in Tampa's last 18 home games, including 4-1 if the total is between 45.5 and 49 pts. As of press time, this is one of the highest O/U lines on the board this week; only one is guaranteed to close higher. 

The Over is 6-0-1 the past seven meetings between these two teams, including the Super Bowl matchup at the end of the 2002 season. This number is significantly higher than any of the previous matchups. Of course, a lot of that has to do w/ the Raiders defense, but note they have had to play some of the top offenses in the league to this point. That includes New Orleans, Atlanta, San Diego and Kansas City. Last week, they held the anemic Jags to only 16 points. They've also held Tennessee to only 10 in an earlier road win. 10* Under Raiders/Bucs

10* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Obviously, the focus here will be on the revenge angle as back in Week 4, the Bills handed the Patriots their only loss of the year to date via a 16-0 shutout. Of course, that was against a banged-up, third-string rookie QB (Jacoby Brissett). Since Tom Brady returned from his suspension, the Pats have been virtually untouchable. They've won and covered all three games, beating Cleveland, Cincinnati & Pittsburgh (all AFC North teams!) each by double digits. New England's 6-1 ATS record is the league's best currently. Because of the aforementioned revenge angle, this line has become inflated. The Bills still have a top five scoring differential in the league and are a live dog here. Take the points.

Perhaps the Bills were a bit of a "bubble" in the sense that entered LW w/ the league's top scoring differential and riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak. They got upset at Miami, losing 28-25. While outgained significantly there (454-267), thanks to 200+ yards rushing from the Dolphins' Jay Ajayi, it should be noted that they entered the fourth quarter w/ a 17-14 lead. It was actually a 17-6 game entering the final minute of the third quarter. As anticipated, the Bills defense has been much better in the second year under Rex Ryan, allowing just 18.7 PPG. Last week marked just the second time they allowed more than 20 and again, they had given up only 6 through 44 minutes. At the same time, this offense has continued to improve, led by emerging QB Tyrod Taylor. Five of the last six weeks, they've scored 25+ points. That makes them very attractive as a home underdog.

Yes, Bill Belichick has NEVER been swept by an AFC East rival in his tenure here. But that is precisely what has helped inflate this line. Buffalo is getting roughly the same respect a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team did last week and that is something I patently disagree with. While New England has absolutely established itself as the premier team in thiss league right now, I would argue that this will be their toughest opponent to date. I've mentioned this before, but while NE is 4th in points per game allowed, they are 14th in yards. That "bend but don't break" approach typically cannot last. The Bills are 13-6 ATS as an underdog the L3 years, including 7-2 if priced between +3.5 and +9.5. They're 2-0 SU/ATS as a home dog of +3.5 to +7. 10* Buffalo

10* Carolina (1:00 ET): This is an absolutely horrible spot for Arizona. Not only are they off a game against division rival Seattle, a team I've previously identified as having a "car crash" type effect on its opponents' next game, but that was an extraordinarily physical game that went 75 minutes to a tie. If you're a regular client of mine, then you know I played against Atlanta last week as they were coming off a physical, down to the wire game against Seattle the week prior. The Falcons ended up losing outright, wilting late, 33-30 in OT. To add insult to injury, kickoff was moved here to 1:00 ET, which is 11 AM local for Arizona. Meanwhile, Carolina is rested and ready coming off its bye. I say lay the short number in this one.

The Panthers being 1-5 SU and ATS so far is one of the real shockers in the league. This is the defending NFC Champion after all. Their only win was here at home over lowly San Francisco in Week 2, 46-27, a game they were favored by 11.5. Since then, it's been four consecutive outright losses. The first two were to Minnesota and Atlanta, both of whom have turned out to be division leaders. They outgained the Vikings, but were undone by a -3 turnover margin there. The 17-14 loss to Tampa Bay again saw the TO bug rear its ugly head and that can be pinned on backup QB Derek Anderson as Cam Newton (concussion) had to sit out that game. The defense was downright atrocious in a 41-38 loss at New Orleans.

Despite what you've just read, Carolina is still outgaining its opponents by 22.8 yards per game! The last seven times the Panthers have been a home favorite of three points or less, they've won and covered six times. The bye allowed them to get healthy, particularly in the secondary w/ James Bradberry and Robert McClain back. The offense is 13th in the league in yards per play and third in # of 10+ yard plays. I realize that the Cardinals, like the Panthers, are better than their record and have revenge for LY's NFC Title Game disaster on this field. But revenge alone will not be enough to overcome what is an absolutely horrible spot situationally. This is their eighth straight game w/o a bye. 10* Carolina

8* Arizona (11:00 ET): Late night in Tucson, I believe this to be a great spot for struggling Arizona (2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS) to get back on track. For starters, the Wildcats are off a bye. Last time we saw them, they were being humbled 48-14 here at home by USC. They are -7 in turnovers the L2 games. This is a team that gave Washington its toughest test to date. The Wildcats are now a dog for a fifth straight time in Pac 12 competition, but fortunately it comes against struggling Stanford, losers of three of their last four. The big problem w/ the Cardinal being a road favorite is they simply don't score much. Last week, at home, they were held to 5 points in a humbling defeat at the hands of Colorado. The line movement for this matchup clearly indicates that the home dog is the sharp side here. Take the points.

Even when Stanford was 3-0 SU, there were some pretty clear warning signs that trouble might lie ahead. They were outgained 335-272 by Kansas State in the opener. Only 109 yards passing against USC was certainly uninspiring. The finish against UCLA speaks for itself as they trailed 13-9 and after scoring the go ahead TD late, recovered a fumble on the final play to "steal" the cover. The wheels have come off ever since. I went against them in Washington when they were humliated 44-6, the worst loss of the David Shaw era. The next week is when things really began to go off the rails as Washington State came to Palo Alto and won 42-16. An ugly 17-10 win over Notre Dame (neither team gained 300 total yds) turned out to be only a one-week repreive as they scored just 5 points LW at home vs. Colorado, their fourth straight game gaining less than 300 total yards. 

I mentioned Arizona's turnover issues earlier, well, the same issue has haunted Stanford as well. The Cardinal have turned it over in every game this year, including 10 the L3 weeks. So, that is a battle to watch, as it likely decides the game. Stanford is 9-2 SU the L11 matchups, including four straight wins (55-17 LY as 11-pt home favorites), but this year's edition is nowhere near as strong. Off the bye, Rich Rod pulls one of his patented upsets. 8* Arizona

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): Seven games into the season, Nashville has to be fairly road weary. The Preds are 0-4 SU away from home to this point, all but one of those losses coming in regulation. Only a few teams have given up more goals to this point than have the Preds. The current West Coast swing began Wednesday w/ a 6-1 loss to Anaheim. The following night brought a 3-2 loss to the Kings in overtime. Really, the only positive to speak of here is the fact Nashville is #1 in the league on the power play at 37%. But they are 29th in penalty killing (68%) and scored only eight even strength goals. That's certainly an ominous sign moving forward.

San Jose enters this game off B2B wins and in the Pacific is only looking up at surprising Edmonton. While Nashville is winless on the road, the Sharks are unbeaten on home ice at 3-0 SU.  They are 6-1 SU the L2 seasons hosting the Preds, including winning all four home games in LY's playoff series. Goaltender Martin Jones posted a 1.25 GAA and a .957 save percentage in those four home wins. Similarly, he's been very sharp at home so far this year w/ a .955 save percentage having started all three games. In these three home wins, the Sharks are allowing only 1.0 gpg and 22.3 shots per game. You won't lose many w/ those averages.

While this is Nashville's third straight road game, it is San Jose's third straight home game. The spot completely favors the Sharks, the better team to begin with. Take away one ugly loss to the Rangers and San Jose has allowed three goals or fewer in every game. They've won all four games this year against teams with a losing record. While San Jose has done a great shot at limiting opponents' shots, Nashville has been terrible in that department, giving up 33.9 per game, including 37.2 the L5 games. 8* San Jose

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Indians pulled out a somewhat improbable 1-0 victory in Game 3 (at +190 on the money line, no less!), their second shutout of the World Series and fifth overall in these playoffs (most ever). For the Cubs, it was a discouraging defeat as their last four losses have now all come via shutout fashion. But, as I pointed out in my analysis for Game 2, this team has typically done a great job at bouncing back from such defeats. They're now 7-2 in the role and 42-20 off a loss of any kind, period, this season. Even after losing last night, the Cubs remain 61-26 at Wrigley and the matchup advantages I believed them to have going into last night's game still exist tonight. By a wide margin, this was the best team in baseball all year & I just do not see them dropping B2B home games.

Cleveland has to love the position it is in as they are up 2-1 in the series and get to send ace Corey Kluber to the hill. Kluber was downright incredible in Game 1 as he struck out eight of the first nine batters that he saw and allowed only four hits total over six shutout innings. It marked the third time in his last four starts that Kluber didn't allow a single run. But the exception to that stretch came in Game 4 of the ALCS when he was working on three days' rest (1st time in career) as he will be here. Kluber allowed "only" 2 ER in 5 IP that day, but still, he did not look like the same pitcher. If Kluber has an Achilles' heel, it is giving up the home run ball and I would not be surprised to see the Cubs hit their first of the series here tonight. 

The Cubs counter w/ John Lackey, who I expect to pitch well. He's yet to go more than four innings in a postseason start thus far, but he sports a 2.62 ERA and 0.991 WHIP here at home this season. Those numbers are indicative of a TSR better than the one Lackey currently has (10-6), so he's "due." In yday's analysis, I spent a great deal of time talking about how the lack of a DH would hurt a Cleveland lineup that already struggles to score on the road. I still believe that to be true. The Indians have scored only two runs total the L2 games and have been held to just 1 in three of the last four games. This offense ranked just 27th in runs scored, 29th in batting average and 28th in OPS. They come in batting a collective .191 the L7 games. Visiting teams are now averaging less than 3.0 rpg at Wrigley for the year. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Orlando (7:35 ET): Cleveland's defense of its first ever NBA Championship has gone well so far as they destroyed the Knicks on Opening Night, then won at Toronto last night (by 3). Though they return home tonight (while much of the city will be focused on the World Series), laying double digits w/o rest is a tough spot, even this early in the season. Orlando is 0-2 SU/ATS and thus going to be a pretty desperate team on Saturday night. The Magic are 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS vs. the Cavaliers the L3 seasons, but this is a steep price tag, the largest we have seen attached to any of those seven matchups. Take the points. 

Now it certainly deserves to be pointed out the Cleveland is 14-0 the L14 meetings vs. Orlando with the average margin of victory coming by 21 points per game! But despite what the early returns may seem to indicate, this year's edition of the Magic should be a lot better than what we've seen the last few seasons. Yes, they lost at home to Miami and then were blown out at Detroit last night. They allowed 50.5% shooting and lost by 26, so clearly this is a "buy low" situation. With Frank Vogel now serving as HC, I expected this team to be a little more stout defensively. Of course, it would also help if the started to shoot a lttle better. They were only 34.7% from the floor last night and 36.6% for the season so far. Even against a top-flight team like Cleveland, I expect that number to go up. 

Cleveland has had an issue w/ turnovers as they have 31 of them the first two games. That's been mitigated by their first two opponents shooting only 37.85% from the floor thus far, but that percentage is unsustainable. LeBron James actually played center last night as the team is short-handed w/o Channing Frye (death in the family). Orlando, by comparison, has only turned it over 20 times in two games. This is obviously a huge early season number and note that the Magic are 9-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. They are also 20-16 ATS playing in the second of back to backs. Cleveland is just 17-21 ATS w/o rest. I can't see the Cavs wining by this big a margin. 8* Orlando

10* Ole Miss (7:15 ET): I'm just one week removed from playing Auburn, who rewarded me greatly w/ a 56-3 beatdown of Arkansas that was just about as perfect a game as we've seen them play in the Gus Malzahn era. The Tigers outgained the Hogs 632-215 w/ all but 89 of those yards coming over land. On paper, that seems problematic for an Ole Miss side, which has had plenty of difficulty stopping the run to this point. The Rebels have allowed an average of 227 yards rushing per game to this point, but to me, this is still the best four loss team in the country and it should be a strong finish to the season here in Oxford. Note their four losses have been to Florida State, Alabama, Arkansas and LSU. Only the Arkansas game saw them favored. Auburn is a little "too hot" right now and overvalued coming off LW's beatdown. They're 6-1 ATS and due to start giving some back. This is a rare time we find Mississippi as a home dog. They're 5-2 ATS in that role under Hugh Freeze. Take the points.

Key in analyzing Auburn's fast start is the fact they've played only one "true" road game to this point. That came at Mississippi State, who is the worst team in the SEC West. Remember that this team was one play away from a 1-3 SU start. The offense has been firing on all cylinders the L3 games, but was held to 18 pts or fewer in each of its first three games vs. FBS competition. Coming into the year, I would not have thought the Tigers would be favored in this spot. They are just 2-2 ATS as road favorites the L3 seasons w/ the two covers coming at the expense of Kentucky and Mississippi State. The road team is just 3-6 SU the L9 years in this rivalry, though that includes wins each of the L2 years.

Last year, Ole Miss prevailed 27-19 at Auburn, a game they were seven-point road favorites. Now, one year later, they're getting points at home! Auburn is clearly improved while the Rebels have regressed some, but still, this is an overadjustment by the linesmakers. Over the L3 seasons, Ole Miss is 15-3 SU/13-5 ATS at Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium. Though they have struggled in the second half each of the L2 weeks (both road games), the Rebels remain the SEC's second highest scoring offense at 37.0 PPG. That's ahead of Auburn's offensive average! 10* Ole Miss

10* UTSA (7:00 ET): This is a game that few will be paying attention to, but it offers us a tremendous opportunity to go against a North Texas team that's off one of the phoniest wins of this, or any other, season. Hats off to the Mean Green for improving to 4-3 SU for 1st year HC Seth Littrell via a 35-18 win at Army LW (as 17.5-pt dogs, no less). But looking at the box score, it's easy to discern what the key to the game was and that's SEVEN Army turnovers. Believe it or not, but that was North Texas' second consecutive outright win as a DD dog. Before the bye, they beat Marshall at home, 38-21, getting 13.5. Those are two massive covers and the team has also won at Rice earlier in the year, 42-35 (+6.5). But their 5-0-1 ATS run ends here as UTSA looks to atone for an ugly 52-49 home loss (as 10-pt favorites) LW to UTEP. Lay the short number.

It was only two weeks ago that I had a big play going AGAINST UTSA. That was as a road favorite against a desperate (at the time, winless) Rice squad. They themselves were off massive upset the week prior, 55-32 over Southern Miss, as 17-pt home dogs. So both of these teams have been giving oddsmakers fits all season. It should be pointed out that I took the Roadrunners earlier in the year, when they hosted Arizona State in a national TV game. They never were out of the money as 21-pt dogs, even leading a majority of that game outright. This marks the third consecutive week they're favored and while 0-2 ATS so far, I think the third time will be the charm. Last week, they outgained UTEP 525-434 (29-19 FD edge). That game went to FOUR overtimes & UTSA never trailed in regulation! In fact, the only time they trailed was in the second OT and they quickly responded w/ a game-tying TD. In the third OT, they not only scored first, but made the 2 pt conversion. Unfortunately, the defense then allowed UTEP to do the same. Still though, that's 104 pts scored in the L2 home games (83 in regulation).

Oh, by the way, this is also a revenge game for UTSA. Last year, as a seven-point favorite, they dropped a game in Denton as seven-point favorites. The final score there was 30-23 and it was North Texas' ONLY win of the season. I'm sure the ignominy of that defeat is still remembered by the UTSA players. Prior to the upsets of Rice and Army, the Mean Green had lost 14 consecutive road games (3-11 ATS)! That game LY saw UTSA up 23-21 when the XP was blocked and returned for a game-tying 2 pt conversion. On the ensuing drive, UNT scored the GW TD. Revenge will be sweet here. 10* UTSA

10* South Alabama (5:00 ET): Let's start w/ the bad news. South Alabama lost four starters in its 28-21 home loss (as nine-point dogs) to Troy last week. One of them was DB Kalen Jackson, who is now likely done for the season. The defensive line is already very thin. It's been a very bizarre season thus far in Mobile. The Jaguars have SU wins over both Mississippi State (on the road) and San Diego State, but their only other win came by a single point (in overtime) over Nicholls State, who is a FCS school. It should be pointed out, however, that was the lone game to this point that they have been favored in. Therefore, it's pretty telling to find them in the chalk role here, all things considered, and even more intriguing to see how the line has moved subsequently. Lay the points.

Another key in handicapping this game is the fact this will be South Alabama's last home game until the season finale against New Mexico State on December 3rd! That's right; the Jags won't be playing in Mobile a single time in November (three road games and a bye). Therefore, before the bid adieu to campus, I'll be expecting a pretty focused effort Saturday evening. This game marks a revenge spot for USA as they lost 24-10 LY in Atlanta (were two-point dogs) despite jumping out to an early 10-0 advantage. The home team has now won four of five all-time meetings between them and Georgia State.  A team that was able to go into Starkville and win, not to mention hand San Diego State its only loss of the campaign, should certainly be good enough to beat Georgia State here at home.

Georgia State did not make the jump to the FBS level until 2013. Their first two years in the Sun Belt, or anywhere else for that matter, did not go well as they went a combined 1-23 straight up w/ the one win coming at the expense of Abilene Christian. The Panthers' first win over a FBS team was Week 2 of last year, 34-32 at New Mexico State. That was the catalyst to a surprising 6-7 SU finish w/ all but one win coming in league play. I already mentioned that they beat South Alabama. This year, they arrive in Mobile riding a 5-game ATS win streak. But they are only 2-5 SU w/ one of the wins coming LW against FCS Tenn Martin. They were getting double digits in three of the ATS wins and favored in the other (over Texas State). Road games have not gone well for the Panthers as they're 0-4 SU, getting outscored by 16 PPG.  10* South Alabama

8* Oregon (5:00 ET): Eugene was once the envy of the College Football universe, but it's all come crashing down under the "guidance" of Mark Helfrich in the two seasons post Marcus Mariota. The Ducks have dropped an almost unfathomable five consecutive games coming into this week, though it should be pointed out that two of those have come against teams that are still unbeaten, Nebraska and Washington. Three of the five losses have been by exactly a field goal. The 35-32 loss in Lincoln (Nebraska) is the only game the Ducks MAY have covered for you as they spent a portion of that week at +3.5. But other than that, it's been all ATS losses, though I pushed w/ them as three-point dogs in LW's 52-49 double OT loss at Cal. They are the ONLY team in the country yet to have covered a single game using closing lines. Shocking as it may seem, I'll call for that streak to end Saturday, even though they are laying more than one score!

Ever since pulling out a somewhat miraculuous come from behind win and cover over Cal on 9.24, it's been pretty much all downhill for Arizona State. They've dropped three of four w/ the lone win coming by three (at home) against UCLA, who was w/o Josh Rosen. They prevailed there despite a 443-275 deficit in total yardage and have since lost to Colorado and Washington State the L2 weeks. In neither of those two games did the Sun Devils gain more 280 yards of total offense. The problem for them has been the health, or lack of it, of QB Manny Wilkins. After missing the win over UCLA, he returned against Colorado, but was pretty dreadful (13 of 35 for 149 yards). He then exited early LW vs. Wazzu after just six attempts. That game saw ASU fall behind 37-21 early in the fourth quarter before scoring two late TD's. But for the game, Wazzu had a 2:1 edge in first downs. With Wikins listed as questionable here, I wouldn't want to rely on this Sun Devils defense which is allowing 34.4 points and 486 yards per game. There have actually been two WINS this year where the D gave up 41 or more points.

Oregon's issues also clearly reside on the defensive side of the ball as they've allowed a ghastly 57.7 PPG the L3 weeks! That's a ridiculoulsly high bar to set when laying points, but I'm going to go ahead and call for the Ducks' best game on BOTH sides of the football here. Clearly, we've established they should be able to move the ball. Defensively, they'll benefit from the unsettled ASU QB situation. ASU, while 2-3 SU in Pac 12 play, is being outgained by 200 YPG. Like most conference rivals, Oregon has enjoyed an extended run of dominance over ASU (won 9 straight). We've seen comeuppance be served each of the L4 weeks, but not here. Lay the ponts. 8* Oregon

8* TCU (3:30 ET): One of these teams was kind to me last week, the other was not. But as a handicapper, one must avoid "loyalty" to teams at all costs and that's the situation that presents itself here. Some may have found LW's NFL game between the Seahawks and Cardinals to be the least aesthetically pleasing of the weekend, but personally, I found Texas Tech's 66-59 home loss to Oklahoma to be far more grossly offensive. I say that as someone who cashed a winning ticket on the Red Raiders (+14), keep in mind. Meanwhile, TCU may have let me down in Morgantown, but suffice to say the Mountaineers are a lot better than everyone (myself included) thought this year. A return to Ft. Worth to face a team that plays no defense whatsoever is just what "the doctor ordered" for the Horned Frogs. Lay the points.

Consider that Texas Tech put up a "video game like" 854 yards of total offense last week and still LOST the game! Not only that, but they only led for 20 seconds of gametime and trailed by double digits for a large portion of the second half. That should give you an idea of the kind of defense we are dealing w/ here as the Red Raiders also allowed 854 total yards. That came on the heels of allowing 650 to West Virginia the week prior and both of those games were at HOME! In my analysis for last week's game, I harped on the fact that the WVU game was the only time in its last 10 (now 11) home games that the TT offense failed to score at least 50 points. But take this group out of Lubbock and the production tends to drop while the defense gets no better. The Red Raiders' only two previous "true" road games this year both resulted in losses where they've allowed an average of 56 PPG. FCS Stephen F Austin and Kansas (one of the worst Power 5 schools) are the only two opponents that have not scored at least 44 pts against this team.

TCU's offense was definitely held in check LW at Morgantown (only 10 pts and 300 total yds), but some self-inflicted wounds (i.e. three turnovers) certainly did not help their cause either. It's certainly been a disappointing season thus far for the Horned Frogs, including in the eyes of the oddsmakers as they're just 1-6 ATS so far. But the only three SU losses have come to Arkansas, Oklahoma and WVU. While two of those (not WVU) were shootouts here in Ft. Worth, the defense they face here will allow them to prevail this time and by a comfortable margin to boot. Four home games have seen TCU average 46 points and 557 yards to begin with and the last time Texas Tech came here, they infamously put up 82 points and 785 total yards! Last year was a 55-52 win in Lubbock where they gained 750 total yds. So, clearly, this should be the Horned Frogs best offensive game of the season. By the way, they are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS all-time at home when the total is 70+ points. 8* TCU

8* Miami OH (3:30 ET):  There have been some real "lean" years in Oxford, Ohio of late (23-51 SU L10 years w/ nine losing seasons). But for whatever reason, the RedHawks have always seemed to have Eastern Michigan's number. They've beaten the Eagles eight straight times and done so by an average of 12 PPG. Granted, that win streak goes back to the Ben Roethlisberger era, but last year they won 28-13, which was one of just two MAC victories in 2015. With EMU seemingly on the "road to recovery" this year (5-3 SU), many will be quick to call for them to put an end to this losing skid. But I'd advise laying points w/ an outfit unaccustomed to the chalk role. This will be the first time EMU has given at least a TD to a FBS opponent in the Chris Creighton era. In fact, it's the first time laying this many to a FBS opponent since 2011 when they pushed against Akron as eight-point favorites. Take the points.

Eastern Michigan is one of 22 current FBS members never to have been ranked. Considering a good portion of the other 21 are relative "newbies" to this level of play, that's a pretty dubious distinction to have. The school's last bowl appearance came all the way back in 1987 in the now defunct California Raisin Bowl. But HC Creighton has certainly turned this program around as all they need is one more win to become bowl eligible this year! The Eagles' only three losses this year came to Missouri, Toledo and Western Michigan, that's two conference heavyweights + a SEC team. They've also covered seven in a row ATS for the nation's second longest active win streak at the betting window (Colorado). But last week was a tough 14-pt loss to rival Western Michigan and I see a letdown taking place here in the unfamiliar role of fave. The Eagles' defense remains leaky (422 YPG allowed) and ranks 112th nationally against the pass. At the very worst, that means the backdoor will be open here.

Meanwhile, Miami actually brings the league's best defense into Ypsilanti. They've allowed an average of just 301 YPG in MAC play and are now 2-2 SU after B2B wins over Kent State and Bowling Green the past two weeks. Last week, BG was the first conference opponent to gain more than 300 yds against them, but surprisingly the RedHawks offense showed up w/ both 200+ yards passing and rushing! Even in a 17-7 loss to rival Ohio U, they gave up only 197 total yards. EMU is a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points for just the fourth time (ever!) and their L3 wins have come by a combined 13 pts, none by more than seven. 8* MIami (OH).

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): I'm well aware that Kentucky dominated Mississippi State far more than the scoreboard showed last Saturday (outgained the Bulldogs by nearly 200 yds in 40-38 win), but a tenent of this week's handicapping philosophy is going to be taking home teams, off a loss and playing with revenge. Enter Missouri, who is in the midst of a very disappointing season thus far. The Tigers are 0-3 SU/ATS in October, but there is no doubt that it is last week's loss, 51-48 to Middle Tennessee (on homecoming weekend, no less) that stings the most. Mizzou was a team earmarked for improvement this year, but if they were to lose this game, B2B seasons w/o a bowl is a very real possibility. Fortunately, they are in Columbia, a place where UK has never won. Lay the points.

A 4-1 stretch - both SU and ATS - has Kentucky thinking postseason. But the Wildcats have had to play only two road games thus far - at Florida and at Alabama. As you might have guessed, neither went well. They were outscored 79-13 and only covered against 'Bama due to the oddsmakers' generosity (were getting 37 pts). While the opponent isn't even close to as strong this week, note UK has lost its two previous visits to Columbia - both by double digits. In fact, in the four times these teams have played (Missouri joined the SEC in 2012), the home team is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS. Last time here, they trailed the entire way en route to a 20-10 loss. Last year in Lexington, Mizzou turned in the best performance by a visitor in the four year history of this rivalry, but ultimately gave away the lead in the second half.

While Kentucky was able to gain 554 total yards of offense last week, it was an ideal spot coming off a bye. Meanwhile, Missouri was flat, hosting a non-conf opponent off B2B SEC road games. The Tigers actually put up more offense than UK last week (629 yards!) as well as their opponent (allowed 584), but ultimately lost due to a pair of turnovers, which were converted into 10 MTSU points and that was the difference in the ballgame. I'm pretty shocked to see Mizzou sitting at only 2-5 SU right now, but they have had to travel to West Virginia, LSU and Florida and most teams will go 0-3 against that gauntlet. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 pts, UK is just 3-17 SU and 5-15 ATS its L20. Despite the 4-3 SU record, the Wildcats have been outgained this year by 51.6 yards per game. That's due to the two road games where they are -371 YPG! Meanwhile, Mizzou is outgaining its opponents by about 50 YPG this season and gaining over 600 YPG in the four home games. 8* Missouri

8* New Orleans (9:35 ET): The world figures to be on Golden State here as the Warriors were flat out embarrassed on Opening Night, losing 129-100 (at home!) to the Spurs. But, I'm of the belief that the Dubs will consistently be overpriced on a game by game basis this season and thus the value is typically going to come fading them. Here, they are being asked to lay double digits, on the road. I realize that the Pelicans failed to win a game where Anthony Davis went for 50 points, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, 7 steals and 4 blocks! But the team also combined to go a horrific 3 for 19 from three-point range, a number that all but HAS to improve tonight. Look for Davis to carry his team to a cover. Take the boatload of points.

While the key core returns, there are many new faces on board. The most notable is obviously Kevin Durant, who did play well in the opener. He made 11 of 18 shots, finishing w/ 27 points. Steph Curry had 26, but was only 3 for 10 from behind the three-point line as it's highly unlikely that LY's other-worldly numbers will be repeated. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green were also in double figures. But no one else on the team scored more than five points and that's where the problem lies. The top four is as strong as any top four on any team in league history, but the dropoff after Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green is severe and you have to wonder just who will be able to contribute consistently. Don't discount the fact that HC Steve Kerr has lost his top assistant each of the last two years. Complacency may also set in w/ a team still disappointed about LY's Finals loss.

The Warriors were also awful defensively against San Antonio, giving up 30+ points in EVERY quarter. Lost in LY's incredible run is that this was one of the top FG% defenses in the entire league. I expect them to regress in that department this year. Interesting is that not only is the team 5-4 ATS as a road favorite of 9.5 to 12 pts the L3 seasons, those four ATS losses have also all resulte in outright losses. New Orleans may be shorthanded here, but they have Davis and figure to be highly motivated playing the league's best team. When they hosted Golden State last year (granted very early in the season), they were only 5.5-pt dogs. It took 53 points from Curry for the GSW win. 8* New Orleans

8* Houston (8:35 ET): The Rockets really let me down Wednesday night, losing their first game to the Lakers. Coming into the year, offense was not thought to be an issue for this team under new HC Mike D'Antoni and it wasn't in LA as they went for 114 points. But defense was another matter as they let dreadful opponent shoot better than 50 percent from the floor en route to scoring 120. Houston also failed to shoot well from three-point range (24.1%), something that I do not anticipate being the case moving forward. Were it not for a -15 pt discrepancy from behind the arc, I just don't see how the Rockets lose that game Wednesday. I'll come back w/ them here. Take the points.

Dallas has made the playoffs every year this century save for one time (2012-13). They have not had a losing record since 1999-00 (went 40-42) and you'd have to go back to 97-98 to find the last time they didn't win at least 40 games in a full 82-game season. But this year, I expect the Mavs to take a pretty significant step back. They lost a tough one in the opener, 130-121 at Indiana, a game that went to overtime. They had trailed earlier by as many as 14. Dirk Nowitzki simply isn't getting any younger and the supporting cast around him has crumbled. Had it not been for a Harrison Barnes' three-pointer w/ 2.3 seconds remaining in regulation, then the team would have lost in OT. They let the Pacers shoot 52.6% from three-point range and 50.5% overall for the game.

Getting back to Houston's three-point shooting from the first game, they missed 15 of 16 attempts in the second half. That can't happen again. While Dallas has taken 29 of the last 43 head to head matchups in this Southwest Division rivalry, note Houston has won six of the last nine. They split four last year. Given the Mavericks' inability to defend Indiana, I think that they are in for a rough outing here against a Houston team that can absolutely pour it on. Look for the road team to come in and take this front end of a home and home. 8* Houston

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): If you believe in momentum, then you have to think that this series took a dramatic shift after Game 2, which the Cubs won 5-1. Game 3 figures to be the most lopsided matchup, on paper, of this entire World Series. The Cubs check in as roughly a 2:1 favorite behind Kyle Hendricks and the price is absolutely justified. Note Cleveland is batting a collective .183 over its L7 games and that's w/ the DH spot in the batting order. Now, they lose that spot moving to the NL park where visitor run suppression was tops in all of MLB. The Indians don't hit particularly well anyway on the road as during the regular season; they ranked just 27th in runs scored, 29th in batting average and 28th in OPS. They face a top-flight pitcher in Game 3 tonight.

Visiting teams are averaging only 3.0 rpg here at Wrigley Field this season. That's, by far, the lowest average in all of MLB w/ only Dodger Stadium with 0.7 rpg of that number. A big reason for that impressive number has been the performance of one Kyle Hendricks, who toes the rubber tonight in Game 3. His ERA and WHIP are 1.31 and 0.848 at home this year and the team is 12-5 in his 17 starts. He made two starts in the LCS and in 12 2/3 IP, he allowed just one run and five hits total. Both of those starts did come here at the Friendly Confines. Somewhat incredibly, Hendricks has given up 3 ER or less in 27 of 33 starts this season. That includes 17 of his last 18! His WHIP is 0.796 his L3 starts overall. Clearly, I anticipate the Indians lineup struggling against him.

Starting opposite Hendricks will be Josh Tomlin. He's also pitched very well of late w/ a 2.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP his L3 starts. But the difference between he and Hendricks reside in the YTD numbers. Tomlin has just a 4.31 ERA for the year, although his WHIP is a more respectable 1.176. While we haven't seen one in a while, Tomlin is far more prone to a "bad" outing. Back in August, he allowed 6+ ER in four of six starts. Hendricks has never allowed that many in any start in 2016. Another key here is how the pitcher having to bat will effect the Cleveland bullpen. Tomlin has pitched only 5 and 5 2/3 IP in his two playoff starts, respectively. The Cubs are 61-25 at Wrigley this season. 6* Chi Cubs

8* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Similar to their season opener vs. Milwaukee, the line has moved in the direction of the Hornets here. Miami may have also won its season opener, 108-96 at Orlando (+3), but I'd caution about expecting much from the Heat in 2016-17. This team is a shell of its former self w/ all of the "Big 3" (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) all departed as have Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. As you might expect, Hassan Whiteside led the way against the Magic w/ 18 points and 14 rebounds. Goran Dragic contributed 16 pts in a game the Heat basically led for the entirety of the second half. While Miami has dominated Charlotte through the years here at home (25-5 SU L30), I would expect that to change this season.

This is of course a revenge spot for the Hornets as they were eliminated in seven games LY by Miami in the 1st round of the playoffs. Game 7 was here in Miami and saw the Heat prevail by a score of 106-73, one of the largest margins of victory ever in a Game 7. This year, I anticipate only Charlotte making it back to the playoffs. They get a full season of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who was limited to only seven games in 2015-16. He scored 23 pts and added 14 rebounds in the team's opening night victory over Milwaukee. That was a really dominant performance by the Hornets as they led by as many as 24 in the 107-96 SU win and cover. Roy Hibbert was also solid Wednesday night. Not only did he score 15 pts, but so too did his backup Cody Zeller.

Miami probably can't rely on another opponent shooting just 38.6% from the field like Orlando did Wednesday. Nor should they rely on the likes of new starters Dion Waiters and Luke Babbit. Both Josh Richardson and Wayne Ellington remain out. Charlotte was a strong defensive team to begin with under Steve Clifford; with Hibbert in the fold, they are even stronger. Don't forget about Kemba Walker either; he should be the best player on the floor Friday night. These teams finished even in the standings LY, but I thought Charlotte was better as they outscored teams by a full point more per game than did Miami. The Hornets are as good or better than last season while the Heat are significantly worse. 8* Charlotte

8* Utah State (8:00 ET): This is the second straight Friday game for San Diego State, who coming into the year was considered as the co-favorite (along w/ Boise St) to win the Mountain West. Those teams don't meet in the regular season and according to the oddsmakers a potential MWC Championship Game would see both teams come in w/o a conference loss. But SDSU has dropped a game this year, that being at South Alabama, 42-24 as 19.5-pt chalk back on Oct 1. Since then, the Aztecs D has led the way to three consecutive wins, allowing just 13 pts total! But they can expect a far stiffer challenge this week as they visit Logan to take on a Utah State squad that doesn't lose at home very often. This is a big revenge spot for the host Aggies as they were actually five point road favorites in a 48-14 loss to SDSU (another Fri game) last year. Take the points.

Since 2014, USU is 14-2 SU at home. One of those losses did come earlier this year, 27-20 as 5.5-pt pups to Air Force. The only other came at the expense of BYU in LY's regular season finale. Last week as big 21-pt favorites against Fresno State, the Aggies won, but only 38-20. While only 3-4 SU for the year, two of USU's losses came by 7 pts and the other two were against USC and Boise State. They've played a far more challenging schedule to this point than has San Diego State. The Aggies have won three times by two touchdowns or more at home this year. Their one home loss saw the opponent (Air Force) come in off a bye. Getting a Friday night home in Logan is a pretty big deal and I expect the crowd to be amped up here.

San Diego State seems due for an "off week" here after thumping San Jose State last Friday, 42-3. That game saw RB Pumphrey gain 135 yards as he continues to lead the nation in rushing. But Pumphrey's workload is worrisome. He's averaged 31 carries the last three games. While series history is troubling from our perspective (SDSU has won nine straight, by an average of 20 PPG), I come back to the fact that the Aztecs already dumped one road game to an inferior opponent. While the defense has been great each of the L3 weeks, take note they did give up 40+ pts twice in the first four games. 8* Utah State

10* NY Rangers (7:35 ET): Two weeks into the season and we find these two teams pretty much where we expected. The Rangers are 5-2 and have a +9 goal differential after three straight wins, the last one coming by a 5-2 margin at home vs. Boston Wednesday. On the other side of the ledger, we have Carolina at 1-3-2 and in last place in the Metro. Certainly, the schedule makers did the 'Canes no favors in this early part of the season as this is actually their home opener! Yes, they actually opened w/ six straight road games, four of them taking place in Western Canada. A return to the Eastern Time Zone has done them little favor as they've fallen to Philadelphia and Detroit this week, giving up 10 goals in the process. The road team is way undervalued here.

What is a little surprising is that the Rangers come into this game leading the league in scoring. They are averaging 3.9 goals per game, a really impressive number. Now they've only had to play two road games and one of them was a 3-2 loss at St. Louis. But they have won at Washington (hard to do!), 4-2. Wednesday saw them come from behind and score five straight goals to beat Boston.  In goal will be Henrik Lundqvist. He's 23-10-1 in 34 all-time starts vs. the Hurricanes, thus is obviously instrumental in the team being 8-1 SU the L9 head to head matchups (only loss was final meeting of LY). Lundqvist got off to a bit of a slow start this year, but has rebounded w/ a .923 save percentage his L4 starts. A huge key for the Rangers thus far is that they're allowing only 25.9 shots per game.

Carolina has actually outshot all but one opponent this season. But their goaltending - whether it's Eddie Lack or Cam Ward - has been downright atrocious. The team's collective save percentage is .853, worst in the league. The gap is pretty significant between them and the 29th place team (Philadelphia) as well. Tonight, it's expected to be Lack between the pipes and he's allowed eight goals on 82 shots thus far. Coming off the long road trip does not bode well for the Hurricanes as they are 8-17 SU the L3 seasons after playing 3+ road games. Also, they are just 24-52 SU when facing a team w/ a winning record during that time. 10* NY Rangers

10* South Florida (7:00 ET): I don't think that I've seen a more publicly endorsed underdog all year. Well, maybe, Arkansas last week and we saw how that turned out. Here, Navy is drawing heavy action, but I think the value is all on the other side. It is telling that the Midshipmen come in ranked but are the clear dog in this matchup. They've been fortunate in that they've had two bye weeks thus far. A scheduled date w/ East Carolina two weeks ago had to be postponed because of Hurricane Matthew. The Middies took full advantage of that by beating Memphis last week, 42-28 as a 1.5-pt favorite. This program has historically performed very well in the underdog role (90-55 ATS). But I do not like their chances here. Lay the points.

USF had a breakout year in 2015. They went 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS. That's continued here in Willie Taggart's fourth year in Tampa as the Bulls are 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS. But they are off a rare SU loss, 46-30 at Temple last week, a game where the offense gained a season-low 352 total yds. Expect a bounce back in this return home. This is a revenge spot as well for a 29-17 loss in Annapolis last year. That was one of just two AAC losses for USF last year. They actually led 17-13 in the second half before falling apart late. While Navy has been quite profitable as a dog through the years, the same holds true for USF in the chalk role. They are 13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS laying points the L3 seasons. Overall, this team has won 13 of its last 17 games. Off their only previous loss this season (55-35 vs. Florida St), they came back to down Cincinnati (on the road), 45-20 as seven-point favorites.

I mentioned earlier that USF is off a season-low in total yards. This is a group that averages 42.4 points and 487 yards per game for the season. QB Quinton Flowers leads the way w/ nearly 2500 total yards as he is the team's leading rusher as well. Pivoting to Navy, they just beat their two main rivals in the AAC West (Houston and Memphis) the L2 weeks. But both games took place at home. I had them in the big upset (as 16-pt dogs) over Houston, but note the Midshipmen benefited from a +3 turnover edge in that one and were actually outgained by over 100 yards. Last week, as I already mentioned, they were off a bye. Two previous road games have resulted in a push (at Tulane where the trailed much of the way) and a two touchdown loss at Air Force. 10* South Florida

10* USC (10:30 ET): Southern Cal is finally starting to hit its stride. The Trojans are one of a number of teams nationally who right now I'd say are definitely better than their won-loss record. Though it came in very ugly fashion (52-6!), you can probably excuse them for losing to Alabama in the opener. (If you're a regular, remember I took 'Bama there). After rebounding w/ a dominating 45-7 win over Utah State here at the Coliseum, they then lost B2B road games to Stanford and Utah to open Pac 12 play. But I thought they certainly outplayed the Utes, who have proven to be a formidable team. They have since won three straight, including 48-14 over Arizona their last time out. That game was on October 15th, so Coach O's team will certainly be well rested when it takes the field Thursday night. I say lay the points here. 

Cal is also 4-3 SU, but as you can see the oddsmakers feel these teams' respective won-loss records are anything but identical. The Bears have really surprised me in staying relevant after the departure of QB Jared Goff to the pros. Their last six games have all been close and come down to the wire. None have been decided by more than 10 points and they are 3-3 straight up in those. The one that was decided by the largest margin (10 pts) was only because the opponent (Arizona St) returned an onside kick for TD in the final minute. So you might be surprised to find the Bears getting so many points. But, don't make the mistake of being tempted. They have lost 12 straight times to USC, by an average of 18 points per game. Their last win was in '03 w/ Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback. Last year, it was only 27-21 in Berkeley, but it was a 13-point game pretty deep into the fourth quarter.

These teams have played two common opponents. One was Utah, who as I already mentioned beat USC. Well, Call beat the Utes, 28-23, but only after a goal-line stand to end the game. The second common opponent is Arizona State, who USC beat and Cal did not. The Trojans didn't just beat ASU, they dominated them, 41-20 as nine-point chalk w/ a 523-303 edge in total yards. That was actually a 41-6 game heading into the fourth quarter. USC also should have beaten a very good Colorado team by more than the 21-17 final as they ran out the clock inside the CU five-yard line. That was a game where they were +177 in total yards and were it not for four turnovers, it definitely would have been a blowout. In the last game, they outgained Arizona 574-343. This is clearly a team hitting its stride since the change at QB. Also, this is an absolutely brutal scheduling spot for Cal. They're working on a short week (played last Friday), off a double OT win over Oregon, while USC is rested (been off 11 days). Cal is also 0-3 SU in "true" road games including an outright loss to Oregon State. 10* USC

10* Winnipeg (8:05 ET): The Jets were somewhat of a "chic" pick to ascend the Central Division pecking order in 2016-17. But the early returns have not been all that encouraging as the club is off to a 2-4 SU start (all losses in regulation, both wins in OT) and currently finds itself in last place. That includes a 3-2 loss in the front end of a home and home to tonight's opponent, Dallas, two nights ago. However, one positive sign is that the Jets did finish w/ the edge in shots on goal in that game (30-26). Also encouraging is that both victories this season have come at home. Hopefully, the goaltending issues can get cleaned up. If so, I see the Jets getting the two points here. 

Not to "pile on" here, but Winnipeg really should have been able to pull out a win Tuesday considering Dallas was playing w/o six key contributors. However, that same list of players, which includes Jason Spezza, Jiri Hudler, Patrick Sharp, Jamie Benn, Bryan Little and Drew Stafford, are all expected to be out again tonight. So this is a "make good" of sorts for the Jets, who desperately need this game. It's not like the Stars have been sharp on the defensive end either; they're allowing 3.0 goals per game. It appears as if Antii Niemi will again be between the pipes tonight. While he stopped 28 of 30 shots Tuesday night, he also gave up five goals on just 20 shots in his only previous road start. 

Special teams are also hurting Winnipeg right now. They rank just 25th on the power play at 2 for 20. Penalty killing ranks 29th at a woeful 68.8 percent. I would expect those numbers to improve moving forward. Dallas is below average in both areas as well. While both Jets' goals came in the final seconds of the period Tuesday night, I look for them to be a bit sharper here on home ice.  10* Winnipeg

8* Washington (7:35 ET): The Southeast Division is wide open this year. Miami finished in first place last year, but we know they are set to take a rather significant step back in 2016-17. That leaves a void that needs to be filled. I believe the Wizards are the team most likely to step up. Though they failed to even make the playoffs LY, they still possess one of the top starting backcourts in this league w/ John Wall and Bradley Beal. Health was an issue for the Wiz early on last season, but once the got their full compliment of players back, it was a strong 18-13 SU finish to the campaign. This was definitely the best team in the East not to make the playoffs (faint praise, I know!) & if they can continue to feast on below .500 competition (23-9 SU LY), then I project a big jump in the standings.

Atlanta has undergone a significant makeover in an attempt to get them out of the perpetual mediocrity they've resided in for the past decade. Jeff Teague and Al Horford are both gone. They have been replaced with Dennis Schroeder and Dwight Howard. Schroeder is an "in-house promotion" as he was the backup to Teague at the PG position last year. It will be interesting to watch how he handles the significant increase in minutes that comes w/ being in starting lineup. Howard is an interesting call. He is no longer the dominant force he was in Orlando, but has something to prove after awful tenures in LA and Houston. Personally, I feel Schroeder and Howard are both downgrades from the respective predecessors. The only clear sign of improvement for the Hawks this year is that they probably won't go 0-5 SU in overtime games again. 

I favor the Wiz here and believe the better team is getting points. New HC Scott Brooks is looking to make an impact in his first game at the helm. These teams played four times last year and all were decided by double digits. Expect a more competitive affair here where the points are worth taking. Also key is regression/progression to the mean on the defensive end. Even w/ Howard, don't look for the Hawks to repeat last year's performance where they ranked #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, I expect Washington to improve upon its 104.6 PPG allowed from LY. 8* Washington

8* Georgia Southern (7:30 ET): While the official homecoming weekend in Statesboro isn't until November 10th, this week could certainly be considered a homecoming of sorts. That's because the host Eagles are back in Allen E. Paulson Stadium for the first time since a 23-21 win over Sun Belt rival LA Monroe all the way back on September 17th! Since that time, they've had to play four consecutive road dates and predictably the trip did not go well. The lone win came last Saturday, against a weak New Mexico State team, and even then it was just a 22-19 final as 13.5-pt favorites. It should be pointed out, however, that the Eagles had to go to both Western Michigan and Georgia Tech during that four-game, five-week trip. They'll be at Ole Miss next week! This is a team that beat South Alabama (who beat Miss St), thus they will not be intimidated by a visit from SBC power Appalachian State. I say take the points.

Appalachian State's only losses have come to Tennessee and Miami. Other than a 45-38 win at Akron, every Mountaineers' victory has been by double digits. That includes Saturday's 37-19 win over Idaho. The App State defense has really been playing well of late, giving up an average of just 7.3 points and 288.3 yards over the L3 games. But Georgia State, UL Lafayette and Idaho isn't exactly a challenging gauntlet, particularly w/ two of the games taking place in Boone. Three interceptions were key last week, but given the fact that Ga Southern won't throw it much, they should not count on such good fortune here. All told, the offense hasn't been that impressive as it's averaging only 25.3 PPG this year. They've been held under that number in four of seven games.

Former (Southern) conference rivals at the FCS level, these teams have played every year since '93. The home team has won the last three meetings including both here at the FBS level. Last year, it was App State 31-13 (as six-point chalk) in Boone, which of course makes this a revenge spot for Ga Southern. They are 17-3 SU in conference play as a member of the Sun Belt and 12-1 SU their last 13 home games! You have to think a 1-6 ATS record (this year) is due to improve. They were a home dog only once last year and won that game, 43-17, over Western Michigan. This is only the third time they've been a dog, period, this season. Defensively, they've allowed 21 pts or less in four of seven games.  I smell an upset. 8* Ga Southern

8* Buffalo (7:30 ET): Buffalo is not a good football team. In fact, the Bulls currently grade out as one of the worst teams in the entire country. But Akron is hardly worthy of the hefty price tag they're carrying in this Thursday night tilt, on the road no less. That should certainly balance things out in what is a revenge game for the home team. Buffalo lost 42-21 at Akron last year, but only as a 4.5-pt dog, and I personally don't believe the Zips are anywhere near as strong in 2016 as they were in 2015 when they made just their second bowl game in program history. This shapes up as a letdown spot for Akron off a win at Ball St last week (as 3.5-pt pups) and the line has been bet up across the key number of 17 to boot. Take the points.

Going into LY, Akron was a pathetic 2-24 SU its L26 MAC road games. They have since turned things around w/ a 5-1 SU mark the L2 seasons. Key though is that two of those seven wins came at the expense of UMass, who is no longer in the conference. Another point worth nothing is they are not only favored, but favored significantly. If you're a regular client of mine, then perhaps you recall a few weeks back when I played against the Zips laying more than a TD at rival Kent. They won that game, but only 31-27 and needed a TD in the final minute to pull out the SU victory, a game they were actually outgained 423-378. Two weeks ago saw them get absolutely crushed by Western Michigan (lost 41-0). But then LW came a come from behind, 35-25 win at Ball State. They trailed until late in the third quarter and it was only a three-point game when they scored an insurance TD w/ just 2:22 remaining. This was the least experienced team in the country coming into the season!

Without question, this is probably the first time Akron has been a DD road favorite in what I'll call the "database era." I defy someone to find the last time this happened, at least in MAC play. Admittedly, Buffalo is off a pretty humiliating loss here (44-7 at Northern Illinois), but four turnovers certainly did them no favors there. I could find only five instances of the Bulls ever being a home dog in the +17.5 to +21 range and they are 4-1 ATS in those games! They did beat Army here as 13.5-pt dogs earlier this season, for their only SU win. The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings between these two, including the last five. Look for the Bulls to keep this one closer than expected. 8* Buffalo

8* Houston (10:35 ET): I spent a majority of last season ripping the Lakers as a young team that stood idly by and watched Kobe Bryant take an inordinate amount of FG attempts. The result was a horrible 17-65 SU finish, second worst in the league, ahead of only the 76ers. But now that it's "Mamba Out," my projection for this team gets no rosier. They still figure to be one of the three worst teams in the league. I saw a recent transaction for the club that included the names "Metta World Peace" and "Yi Jianlin." That should tell you all about where this once proud franchise currently stands. While there's good young pieces, it's going to take a lot of time to gel and LY's Kobe victory lap really stunted a lot of potential growth. Lay the points here.

Houston had its own issues last year as they barely made the playoffs despite being one year removed from an appearance in the Western Conference Finals. After leading the league at the betting window in 2014-15 at 59.2% ATS (58-40-1, a record that was better than anyone last year), they dropped all the way down to 43.7% ATS (38-49), which was WORST in the league. How about that? Where I come from, that's called "regression to the mean," but expect the team to finish somewhere in the middle during this campaign. The Rockets have thankfully rid themselves of Dwight Howard, who did not have a good tenure here. I expect a bounce back year from James Harden and w/ Mike D'Antoni now running the show, I would not be shocked if this team led the league in points per game. 

I think you can certainly expect Houston to score plenty of points tonight as they face the team that ranked 30th (ie last) in defensive efficiency a year ago. The Lakers allowed a dreadful 1.09 points per possession in 2015-16 and in a game that figures to turn into a track meet, that's bad news. Over the L3 seasons, Houston has gone 6-1 SU and ATS vs. the Lakers, including a perfect 4-0 here in LA. Every game last year was decided by at least 17 points w/ three coming by 20+, so yeah this is a bad matchup for the home team. 8* Houston

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): The Suns were not a good team last year. Actually, that's putting things quite mildly. They went 23-59 SU, getting outscored by 6.7 points per game. Only Brooklyn, Philadelphia and the Lakers were worse in my own personal power rankings. I was actually a bit surprised to find that the Suns were favored a total of 26 times last season (went 11-15 ATS). But only five of those times came after January 1st and two of them were in the meaningless two final games. Therefore, you might be a bit shocked to see me calling to lay the short number here. Don't be. I feel Sacramento is wildly overrated and getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here. This is a rare time when the favorite isn't getting the majority of bets.

The Kings have gone 3-1 - both SU and ATS - each of the L2 seasons against the Suns. After losing the first matchup here in Phoenix LY, they won the next three. Interestingly, Phoenix was favored in both home games last year - by six and 10 points respectively. Some are thinking Sacramento can possibly compete for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but I don't buy it. This continues to be a dysfunctional franchise as it's difficult to build around Boogie Cousins, even as talented as he is. PG Darren Collison is suspended for the first eight games (domestic abuse) and starting in his place will be Ty Lawson, who has his own set of issues, one of them being he's not a very good point guard at this stage of the game. That's problematic b/c the team doesn't have another true point guard on the roster! The Kings were just 15-26 SU on the road last season and were a terrible defensive team, giving up a league-worst 109.1 PPG. 1st year HC Dave Joeger has a lot of work to do here. 

Of course, so too does Suns HC Earl Watson. But I like how his roster is progressing. Will this be a playoff contender in 2016-17? Obviously, not. But can they beat Sacramento at home, laying only a short number? Yes. Keep in mind that this team suffered a ton of injuries last season. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker is your starting backcourt w/ Brandon Knight coming off the bench as the sixth man. That's a solid foundation. Up front you have Jared Dudley, Tyson Chandler and some good young talent that will be enough to aid in winning this game "going away." 10* Phoenix

8* Washington (9:35 ET): I think we may have reached a proverbial "tipping point" with Edmonton. I rode the Oilers to a win Sunday as they played outdoors in Winnipeg and dominated the Jets, 3-0. Those two points have the team alone atop the Pacific at 5-1 and they're actually the only team in the division w/ a positive goal differential right now! It's certainly strange to see Edmonton in first place as this is a team that has perennially finished at or near the bottom of the league the last several years. The accumulation of young talent is definitely starting to pay off, but tonight they face their stiffest team in the form of Washington, the team that won the President's Trophy a year ago. I'm on the Capitals here.

The Caps are off to a 3-1-1 start themselves. They've had three full days off to recover from their first regulation loss of the season, which came Saturday in MSG, 4-2 to the Rangers. Despite losing there, they still finished w/ a slight edge in shots in goal (28-26), which is always a positive sign. They, in fact, have had the edge in shots in all five games this year. Coming off a loss by 2+ goals, the Caps are 20-7 SU the L3 seasons. Due to winning the shots on goal battle, Washington actually comes in #1 in the league in shots per game allowed (24.2) and is #2 in goals allowed (1.8). Braden Holtby will be ready to go tonight between the pipes and he checks in w/ a .924 save percentage thus far. On the other end of the ice, the team has already had two games w/ 40 or more shots.

Edmonton is giving up more shots than they are forcing, which makes their fast start to the season seem rather unsustainable. Certainly unsustainable is the team's current 13.3 shooting percentage. The schedule has been pretty friendly to the Oilers thus far w/ only two road games and one of them was the outdoor event where home ice advantage is always lessened. I was absolutely shocked to learn that Washington is only 3-9 SU its L12 visits here, but they did post a 7-4 victory here last season. Of course, it's a new building and perhaps new Oilers team this year, but I'm not exactly ready to go "all in" on them just yet. Sunday was just their SIXTH shutout win in the L3 seasons and they are 1-4 SU off the previous five. 8* Washington

8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): The Cubs were completely shut down by Corey Kluber last night as the 2014 Cy Young winner struck out eight of the first nine batters that he saw en route to a 6-0 Indians victory. But the Cubs obviously won't be facing Kluber again here. Rather it will be Trevor Bauer, who infamously sliced his finger fixing a drone. It was an ugly situation when Bauer tried pitching in Game 3 of the ALCS as he had to exit after just two batters due to the finger bleeding profusely. As someone who had the Over in last night's game, I was shocked to see how ineffective the Cubs lineup was, though they did have their chances (seven hits). The start time for Game 2 being bumped up an hour doesn't do the visitors any favors, but I'll call for them to even this series up. 

Tonight is the Cubs turn to send a former Cy Young winner to the bump. That would be Jake Arrieta. While his numbers are down compared to last year, Arrieta still had a strong 2016 by any objective measure as he comes in at 18-9 w/ a 3.20 ERA and 1.090 WHIP. Now two of the last three starts have been shaky as he allowed multiple HR's for the first time since 8.29 in a 6-0 loss to the Dodgers. But Arrieta rarely delivers B2B non-quality starts. In fact, that happened just once since the All-Star Break and it's only because he went just 5 2/3 IP (6 IP needed for a "quality start") while still allowing just one run in one of the pair. Over its last seven games, Cleveland is only batting .196 as a team and if you take Francisco Lindor out of the equation, things get even worse. Roberto Perez, a .196 hitter who had just three home runs in the regular season, cannot be counted on for multi-HR's again. 

You have to think the Cubs offense bounces back here against Bauer. I still think that the inclusion of the DH matters for them. Kyle Schwarber had one hit and one walk in his four plate appearances last night. Bauer is nowhere near as dominant as Kluber as is evident by his 4.37 ERA and 1.307 WHIP. Save for the abrupt ending to his last start, Bauer hasn't given up fewer than 3 ER in a start since 8.29 vs. Minnesota. He's given up 5 or more ER eight times since the start of July. The usage of ace reliever Andrew Miller may be limited tonight after he threw a season high 41 pitches last night. The Cubs are 41-20 off a loss this year, including 6-2 if they were shutout. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Portland (10:05 ET): In my initial NBA Power Rankings column, I have these teams basically rated as being even. Based on that, one might surmise that I'd feel the Blazers are a tad bit overvalued here on Opening Night. That assertion would be wrong. Utah is a team that I feel will make a leap into the middle of the playoff pack in 2016-17, but they are the ones a tad bit overvalued coming into this season. Calls for 50+ wins or a Northwest Division Title seem to be a case of putting the "cart before the horse" to me. Portland has always been a very strong home team. They were 32-14 SU here last year and that included a pair of wins over the Jazz. Overall, they took three of four head to head last season. Utah is not exactly healthy to start the season w/ Gordon Hayward definitely MIA and Derrick Favors + Alec Burke also possibly out. Lay the points.

It's difficult to fathom now, but Portland was actually projected to win fewer than 30 games last season. That was due to them losing FOUR starters from the previous campaign, one of them being All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. But credit HC Terry Stotts for doing a tremendous job here. There's no such attrition to suffer through coming into this season as the nucleus of LY's playoff team is all back. Most notable is Damian Lillard, the only player in the league besides LeBron James, Steph Curry and Russell Westbrook in the Top 10 in both points and assists. This is a deep roster too; they added Evan Turner for depth in the offeseason. CJ McCollum, alongside Lillard, makes for one of the better starting backcourts in this league. Folks, this team has been in the second round of the playoffs each of the L2 seasons. They averaged a whopping 108.2 PPG at home last year.

Utah was not a good road team LY as their record was only 16-25 SU and averaged only 96.8 points per game. Pretty short-handed, I see them struggling to match Portland on the offensive end. I also don't expect them to be in "mid-season form" when it comes to the defensive end. There are some new pieces as well, such as PG George Hill, Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, that will require time to gel. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points, the Blazers went 12-6 ATS last year. 10* Portland

10* Over Jets/Stars (8:35 ET): We're working with a high total here. But that's okay given what Dallas is capable of and the goaltending issues that plagued Winnipeg to this point. Of course, there is the matter that both teams were shutout in the most recent game. For the Jets, it happened outdoors, against Edmonton. Dallas was blanked by Columbus, here on home ice Saturday. But I'll look for both offenses to rebound in a major way tonight. The Stars are 14-7 Over the previous three seasons after scoring 1 goal or less in their last game and 28-13 Over after losing by a margin of two goals or greater. Take the Over here.

I went against Winnipeg in the Heritage Classic Sunday afternoon. In my analysis, I noted the goaltending issues that have been plaguing them to this point. They'd given up exactly four goals in each of their first four games before finding themselves down 3-0 after two periods against Edmonton. It was a weird situation as the game had to be delayed two hours because of the sun melting the ice. Clearly, the Oilers adjusted better than did the Jets. Winnipeg was supposed to be a breakout team in the Central this year, but so far I have not been impressed. Right now, the team's save percentage is a woeful .873, so I don't care who is in goal tonight - Connor Hellebuyck or Michael Hutchinson - they're likely to give up some goals.

Dallas is a team I'm predicting will regress this year. Like Winnipeg, they're giving up far too many shots per game in the early going. Both teams are allowing more than 31.0 per game, so expect a wide open affair tonight. Antti Niemi is expected to be in goal here and he has not played well thus far (.873 save percentage), having allowed seven goals on 55 shots faced. On offense, the Stars did lead the league in scoring last year. Prior to being shutout in the outdoor game, Winnipeg had scored five times in two of its first four games. There should be no shortage of goals scored in this one. 10* Over Jets/Stars

10* Over Cubs/Indians (8:05 ET): Runs have been hard to come by in this MLB postseason, particularly in games involving Cleveland. Game 1 of their series w/ Boston saw the Over cash (a 5-4 win w/ a total of 8.5), but since then, it's been all Unders as in seven straight including every game of the ALCS vs. Toronto. The most runs scored in any of those seven games was 7 and that too was against the Red Sox. No ALCS game saw more than six total runs scored. However, because of the rash of Unders, we've seen a significant adjustment made with the O/U Line for Game 1 of the World Series. This will be the lowest total for any Indians' postseason game yet and while the two Gm 1 starters are both strong, I believe the two offenses will do enough to get this one Over the total.

A key in handicapping the first two games of this series is to remember the Cubs, your NL Champs, will not have to send the pitcher to the plate. That should be a nice addition for a lineup that hardly needs the help; during the regular season the Cubs were #2 in all of MLB in runs scored (808), trailing only Boston. Perhaps the Cubs number was even more impressive than that of the Red Sox as they averaged over 5.0 rpg w/ the pitcher having to come to bat. They were tied for the MLB lead for runs scored on the road (5.2 per game). Corey Kluber has been outstanding of late for the Indians w/ a 0.98 postseason ERA and three straight Unders, but he did struggle some vs. Toronto, allowing 10 hits + issuing four walks in only 11 1/3 IP. Over the L3 games of the NLCS, the Cubs offense really woke up w/ 23 runs scored total. The DH role could potentially go to the returning Kyle Schwarber tonight.

Of course, an underrated Cleveland offense is quite formidable in its own right here at Progressive Field. Only the Rockies and Red Sox scored more runs per game at home than did the Tribe in the regular season. It should not surprise you to find out that this is the lowest total for any Indians game all season! In fact, since September 4th (a span of 35 games!), there have been only five occasions where the total was less than 8.0 for them! No AL team stole more bases than the Indians and I expect them to be able to run against Jon Lester and thus manufacture runs. Note that the Over was a perfect 5-0 this season for Cleveland in home games where the total was 7 runs. It was 10-3 for the Cubs on the road when the total was 7.0 (or less). 10* Over Cubs/Indians

8* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): Situationally, one might try and make the case that Buffalo has an edge here. They've been off for the last four days. However, tonight still marks the end of a four-game trek for them and the first three games were all out in Western Canada, against Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton. That makes this stop in the City of Brotherly Love a bit problematic, even w/ the time off. Over the previous two seasons, the Sabres are just 2-12 SU after playing their previous three games all on the road. So this spot is not as great as some may make it out to be. Plus, Buffalo has won only once so far, that being a 6-2 win over Edmonton on 10.16.

The other side of the equation is that the Flyers played last night. They lost, 3-1 at Montreal, but played the Habs to basically a stalemate most of the way. It was a 1-1 tie entering the third period and shots on goal were basically even for the game. The Canadiens didn't take the lead until a power play goal scored at the 13:08 mark of the third and then an empty netter was added at 18:57. That was Philly's sixth game of the season (Buffalo has played only four) and they have lost four of the last five after beating LA on Opening Night (game where Jonathan Quick got hurt). But they did win their last home game, 6-3 over Carolina. This team is 27-15 its L42 home games if the total is 5.5.

It is expected that we'll be seeing Anders Nilsson between the pipes for the Sabres for the first time this season. That's because #1 goaltender Robin Lehner is battling an illness. Lehner is not the only one out for Buffalo though. Of course, we know that Jack Eichel and Evander Kane are both relegated to the bench for the next several weeks w/ an ankle sprain and fractured ribs, respectively. There will have to be some major reshuffling in the team's top two lines, not to mention on the blue line as well w/ the top two pairs of defensemen. Having four days off can't cure what ills Buffalo right now and I'll call for a solid outing from Flyers' backup Michael Neuvirth here as well.  8* Philadelphia

8* Over Knicks/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): Lost in all the hoopla surrounding tonight's much anticipated World Series Game 1 is that Cleveland will also be celebrating its first professional sports championship in over half a century, the Cavaliers' NBA Finals stunner last June over the Warriors. The Cavs treated me quite kindly during that run; I had them in Game 7 (and in my analysis called for the outright win). Here on Opening Night, they'll be facing a far less formidable opponent. All the key pieces are back for the NBA Champs, most importantly LeBron James. Kevin Love should be more comfortable in his third year with the team and unlike last season, Kyrie Irving will be suiting up on Opening Night. There is no reason to believe this team shouldn't at least repeat as Eastern Conference Champions.

I've seen several outlets report that the Knicks have received more individual wagers to win the NBA Title than any other team. That is insane. Yes, their odds offer more value than the Cavaliers, but there is a reason for that. I'm sorry; but I think Phil Jackson has done an atrocious job here as the GM. Why is this team still attempting to run the antiquated triangle offense? They have a new HC in Jeff Hornacek. I think the move to bring in Derrick Rose was totally overrated as he's a below-average contributor at this point of his career. The offense, triangle or not, will still run through Carmelo Anthony. Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah are nice complimentary players.

This isn't the first time Cleveland has opened a season against New York in LeBron's second act here. James' first game back w/ the team (in 2014) was against the Knicks and the Cavs promptly lost that game, 95-90 as 12.5-pt chalk. That result has started a trend which has seen all seven matchups played between these teams the L2 years stay Under the total. But this Cleveland team has its full compliment of players and is gelled. New York will be the group working to fit all the new pieces together. While that will take time to produce positive results, I do concede there are simply more offensive options for NY than there have been in some time. Look for this Under streak to end tonight. I'm on the Over. 8* Over Knicks/Cavaliers

7* Chicago (8:35 ET): The respective pedigrees here probably couldn't be further apart. The Blackhawks, perennial Cup contenders, have won three of four and scored five or more goals in each win. Calgary, who hasn't been in Cup conversation for decades, is off to a rather dreadful 1-5 start. Flames' goaltending has been a major problem thus far. They gave up seven goals in the season opener, a loss in Edmonton, and then six more in Saturday's home loss to St. Louis. Their collective save percentage of .856 ranks 29th in the league and the primary culprit has been prized free agent acquisition Brian Elliott (.839). Having the league's worst power play attack does Calgary no favors here either. Look for Chicago to take advantage.

The Blackhawks beat a rapidly improving Toronto team Saturday night, 5-4, in a shootout. It was a come from behind effort as they were down two goals in the third period. For the third game in a row, they outshot their opponent, doing so by the slimmest of margins, 35-34. In Chicago's first three games, they were outshot every time. Penalty killing has been the primary concern thus far as they are last in the league in that department (woeful 42.9 percent!), but as mentioned previously, that should not be an issue facing the league's worst power play. Again, the key should be exploiting the Flames' poor defense. In two of the three meetings last year, the 'Hawks scored four times at Calgary's expense.

Given the Blackhawks are getting contributions from the likes of Richard Panik, they have to be frothing at the mouth here. The Flames have yet to win a game in regulation w/ their lone win coming in overtime at Buffalo's expense. Meanwhile, they've given up at least four goals in four of their five losses. Chicago is 31-17 SU after giving up 4+ goals their last game. 7* Chicago

10* Houston (8:30 ET): Last Sunday night saw Houston "steal one" at home against Indianapolis. I had the Texans, but must say that even I had written that one off as a loss early in the fourth quarter. They trailed 23-9 w/ seven minutes to go and QB Brock Osweiler was looking quite horrible. But then all of a sudden, Osweiler threw two late TD passes (Colts defense is not good) and the game went to overtime. A field goal later and Houston now finds itself at 4-2 and in first place of the moribund AFC South. All four wins have come at home and the two losses have been on the road. Thus, on paper, it certainly doesn't appear to be a great spot this week visiting Denver and its top-flight defense. The big story here will be Osweiler facing his former team, but for me, the key has been a significant line move. The value here is now on the Texans.

After starting the year 4-0 SU, the Broncos have dropped B2B games. They were favored in both losses and the offense has sputtered. Rookie Paxton Lynch getting called into duty clearly hurt the team at home vs. Atlanta two weeks ago. But then last week at San Diego, they were outplayed w/ Trevor Siemian back under center. It was a 21-3 game midway through the fourth quarter when the Chargers let them back in as the Chargers are wont to do. Remember that Denver was expected to regress here in 2016; last year saw them go a remarkable 11-3 SU in "close games" (defined as those decided by 8 pts or less). This is the most points they have been asked to lay in any game so far this season. For the sake of comparison, they were only asked to lay six points here at home to the Indianapolis team Houston just beat. The Broncos only covered against the Colts due to a pair of defensive scores.

Texans RB Lamar Miller had a breakout game vs. the Colts (149 yards). It would probably be wrong to expect him to duplicate that production against the much better Broncos defense, but expect to see him featured here. Denver has had 10 days off between games here, seemingly an advantage, but again I point to this inflated number. Not only is this the most points Denver has had to lay in any game this year, it's the most Houston has gotten. Only four times since 2012 have the Texans been a dog of a TD or more. Last year, it happened just one time, on a Monday night, and they went to Cincinnati and won outright. Not saying they'll win SU here, but they'll certainly keep it close. Denver is 1-8 ATS off a division game the L3 seasons. 10* Houston

10* Arizona (8:25 ET): It seems as if no one is really giving the Cardinals a shot here, which seems odd, because at the start of the season there is simply no way this line would have been below -3. I see a ton of value on the home team in this spot. Not only does Arizona have the better point differential (compared to Seattle) at this point (+49), they are actually sixth in the league in that department! That's on the strength of two blowout wins, one coming in their last game, which was a 28-3 Monday night massacre of the Jets. Furthermore, Arizona also is #1 in the league in YPG differential right now at +73.7 (Seattle is #2 at +69). It's not as if the Seahawks weren't lucky to survive Atlanta last week, a game they were at home and off a bye.

Seattle has covered each of their last three visits to University of Phoenix Stadium. But that's a little bit misleading in the sense that the hideous Ryan Lindley started one of those games. Also, they lost last year's regular season finale, where the result was meaningless to them and Carson Palmer was pulled at halftime. It should be pointed out that turnovers are what doomed the Cardinals in two of their three losses this year. Against Buffalo and the Rams, they turned the ball over five times each. Take better care of the football and they should be just fine here. Note that in the other four games, the Cards haven't turned the ball over at all! In games where the line is three points or less, this team is on a 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS run. Furthermore, they've shown no ill-effects when on a short week, winning and covering both times the week after they've played on MNF the L3 years.

Seattle is averaging only 89 yards rushing per game and remember that QB Russell Wilson is not 100 percent. As alluded to above, they were very fortunate to escape w/ a win last week against Atlanta. They won only 26-24, a home game where they were off a bye. Richard Sherman got away w/ a somewhat egregious pass interference in the waning moments against Julio Jones. The Falcons outgained them in the contest as well. In four home games, Arizona's defense has given up an average of just 12.5 PPG. With Seattle's defense, there's a chance Kam Chancellor will not play. 10* Arizona

9* Edmonton (3:05 ET): Might this finally be the year that the Oilers become relevant again? They are off to a 4-1 start, having already swept their provincial rival (Calgary) in a home and home. After then losing 6-2 to Buffalo, they've come back to win B2B games at home over Carolina and St. Louis by respective scores of 3-2 and 3-1. This afternoon sees them leaving Alberta for the first time, but it's not a far trip (just the province over) to Manitoba as they take on prime breakout candidate Winnipeg in an outdoor game. Weather could be a factor here w/ a 70 percent chance of showers in the morning. More often than not, we've seen the road team come out on top in these outdoor games (this one is being played at the home of the CFL's Blue Bombers.  The better team (right now) is getting plus money.

The Jets are 2-2 and have been off the last three days after beating Toronto, 5-4, here at home. They've only had to leave home once (lost at Minnesota 4-3), but one issue I see w/ the Jets thus far is they've given up four goals in every game! An .870 save percentage won't get you very far in this league. This afternoon, it will be Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes. He's been guilty of allowing seven goals on just 51 shots so far. He started against Edmonton just once last year and it did not go well. He allowed all three goals in a 3-1 loss, on just 14 shots, and was pulled early. Special teams have hardly been inspiring for the Jets to this point either; they're 21st on the power play and an awful 29th on the PK (woeful 64.3%). 

Winnipeg's issues giving up goals are not likely to end today as Edmonton is the top scoring team in the league right now (4.0 gpg)! In goal, Cam Talbot has started all five games thus far and will again be in net here. At least his save percentage is north of .900, which you can't say about Hellebuyck right now. As a much worse team, the Oilers took two of three from the Jets last season. In fact, the Jets scored just four goals - total - in those three games. Talbot was the one in goal for both wins as he stopped 83 of 85 shots, which is very strong. Don't be surprised if the Oilers' power play, which is 0 for 6 the L3 games, breaks out here against the suspect Jets' penalty killing unit. 9* Edmonton

10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): The "world" figures to be on New England here as not only are the Patriots rolling, but the Steelers are w/o Ben Roethlisberger. That seemingly puts the Black & Gold at a decisive disadvantage, BUT as valuable as Big Ben is, this seems to be a bit of an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. This game was set to be a pick 'em, pre-Roethlisberger injury. For all his own personal exploits, New England QB Tom Brady is only 7-9 ATS as a road favorite of a TD or more in his career. That included a woeful 2-7 ATS mark going back to Week 16 of the 2012 season! They did cover at Cleveland a few weeks ago, but that's the Browns. Even w/ Landry Jones at the helm here, Pittsburgh will be a far more formidable challenge. Take the points.

How rare is it to find the Steelers in this price range, at home? The last time they were getting at least a touchdown, in Pittsburgh, was the 2000 season vs. Tennessee. They covered that game, for the record, losing only 23-20. Even getting a FG or more is rare for this team at Heinz Field. They are 5-1-2 ATS the L8 times that's happened including an outright victory LY over Arizona, 25-13, which was w/ Landry Jones starting at QB! They were also a home dog two week prior w/ Mike Vick and pushed against Baltimore, a game they lost by three in overtime. Four of the last seven times they've been a home dog of at least three points, they've won the game outright. Jones proved he could do this last year and he has a tremendous group of skill position players around him to help get the job done.

New England is giving up only 15.2 PPG, which is tops in the league right now. But that's also very misleading as they are only 12th in yards per game allowed. As alluded to above, the Steelers have quite the set of skill position players to test this defense. A case could be made that Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are each the best at their respective positions. Pittsburgh has won all three home games this season. Predictably, the Patriots are the most popular side of the week. This is a chance to buy low, really low, on Pittsburgh. 10* Pittsburgh

10* San Diego (4:05 ET): I would think at this point that it's been established that the Chargers are better than their record. I had them last Thursday, as a home dog, when they beat Denver outright. That was a much needed result as the team had started 1-4 SU, but the four losses had come by a TOTAL of 14 points (all by six or less). Every one of those four losses was decided in the final minute. They led Kansas City 27-10 (on the road) entering the 4th quarter, but lost 33-27 in overtime. They gave up a long TD pass late in a 26-22 loss at Indianapolis. Two fourth quarter fumbles were converted into touchdowns by New Orleans in a 35-34 game in Week 4. A 34-31 loss at Oakland saw them blow another lead and botch the potential game-tying FG. Despite the now 2-4 SU record, San Diego has the league's 11th best point differential at +18.

I love the way the schedule sets up for the Chargers here. They've been off for 10 days while Atlanta had a tough game in Seattle last week. While the Falcons certainly earned some respect in covering the 7-point spread (lost 26-24), we've consistently seen teams struggle the week after playing the Seahawks. They're the "new Steelers" in that regard. I think it's logical to expect a bit of an Atlanta letdown the week after playing such a tough, physical game. Another break for San Diego here is that this is a late game and not a 1:00 ET start. Also, let us not forget how the Falcons started 5-0 SU last year and went just 3-8 SU the rest of the way. Maybe the win their weak division (NFC South) by default, but I'm still not entirely sold on this team.

This game has all the makings of a shootout. I know San Diego gained only 265 total yards last week, but that was against Denver. For the season, Philip Rivers and the offense are averaging 28.8 PPG. They shouldn't have problems moving the ball against an Atlanta defense that is 24th in yards and 26th in points allowed. I love rookie TE Hunter Henry. Were it not for a fluky-good rate on third downs, the Falcons defensive numbers might look even worse. They have six starters either in their first or second year. The Chargers have covered six straight times as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. Atlanta is just 2-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the L3 seasons. San Diego has not won - or covered - against Atlanta dating all the way back to 1988! That has to change, right? 10* San Diego

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Tampa Bay opened as a road favorite in this game. How rare is that? Well, the Bucs haven't been a road favorite since Week 1 of the 2013 season! They are just 2-7 SU and ATS the L9 times in the chalk role, period, including an outright loss at home to the Rams a couple of weeks ago. Now the 49ers will rarely receive my endorsement, but this happens to be one of the select times I think they should be favored this season. It's been an ugly stretch of football for Chip Kelly's team which has lost five in a row, failing to cover every time in the process. Note they have a YTD point differential of -58, which includes a 28-0 win in the opener against the Rams. However, Tampa Bay isn't too far ahead of that, having been outscored by 48 pts thus far, in one less game. As mentioned before, they lost to the Rams. Some sharp money has shown up on the Niners here and I agree w/ the line move.

Tampa is off its bye. They've already won twice on the road, over Atlanta and Carolina, but those are both division opponents (i.e. they are familiar with those venues). Making this team unattractive in this price range is the fact they have been held to 17 pts or fewer three times in five games. Twice they've been held to only seven! Though they upset Carolina two weeks ago on Monday Night Football, they were outgained in that contest 414-315. What enabled them to prevail 17-14 as six-point dogs was a +4 turnover margin. Keep in mind that they faced Derek Anderson and not Cam Newton as well.

Colin Kaepernick is once again for the 49ers. Controversy aside, he should be. Blaine Gabbert is not a NFL-caliber QB. Not sure what Kelly was thinking there. For a half at least, San Fran looked competent offensively w/ Kaepernick at the helm LW vs. Buffalo. This offense has yet to gain more than 320 total yds in a game this year, which is mind-blowing when you think about it. Thankfully, TB allows over 400 per game on the road. The Niners defense catches a break in that the Bucs' offense will be w/o both Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson. Even with that +4 margin in the last game, TB remains 28th in the league in TO differential. QB Winston is mistake prone. This will be a rare win for the 49ers. 8* San Francisco

8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Oh, how quickly the pendulum has swung on the Eagles. Rookie QB Carson Wentz was the "toast of the town" in Philly after a surprising 3-0 SU start, but the team has come back down to earth following B2B losses to Detroit and Washington. Note that the Eagles were road favorites in both of those SU defeats, but here they are back in a more comfortable role of underdog (at home) where they have already pulled multiple upsets this year (at Chicago, vs. Pittsburgh). Yes, Minnesota is unbeaten and off a bye, not to mention an almost unfathomable 18-3 against the spread since the start of last season. But I expect the sportsbooks to start to "get some back" at the Vikings' expense now that the public has decided to throw its collective support behind them, on the road no less. Take the points. 

I tip my cap to HC Mike Zimmer and the rest of this Vikings' staff. They have overcome a ton of adversity in getting this team off to a 5-0 SU/ATS start. QB Teddy Bridgewater was lost for the season before it even started. Adrian Peterson hasn't played since Week 2. Sam Bradford is getting a ton of credit right now, but the offense is averaging only a pedestrian 303 YPG. The key has been the defense, which is second in the league in yards allowed and first in points. Ironically, in Philadelphia, it was Wentz getting too much of the credit when it was the defense that was really carrying the Eagles' load. Minnesota is averaging only 71 YPG rushing through five weeks and I see them struggling to move the ball against a defense which is tied for third in points allowed (15.6) and sixth in yards.

In a game expected to be low-scoring like this one, a home underdog becomes very attractive. Minnesota has been a road favorite only three times in this 18-3 ATS run of theirs. Those three games have resulted in an outright loss, a three-point win and a game earlier this year (against Tennessee) where they failed to score an offensive touchdown, but somehow managed to pull out a cover. Such inefficiencies will almost assuredly result in an outright loss here. The Eagles haven't played at home in a month, so I expect a real inspired effort from them - on both sides of the ball. One final point that I'd like to make is that Minnesota is a very fortunate +11 in the turnover department so far. That can't be sustained. 8* Philadelphia

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): These were two of the real "trendy" teams coming into 2016. So far, only Oakland (4-2 SU) has lived up to advanced billing, but the Raiders have also been outscored by 11 pts (a division worst) to this point. I faded them last week as they hosted Kansas City and Andy Reid again proved adept at coming off bye as the Chiefs won that one going away, 26-10. Meanwhile, after an 0-3 start, Jacksonville has posted B2B wins. They were off their bye last week and despite falling into a seemingly insurmountable hole, they came away w/ a 17-16 win at Chicago. Long-term, I don't have a ton of faith in either of these two squads, but here I like the value on the Jags as Oakland is receiving far too much support as the short road underdog in an early start time.

Oakland's four wins this year have come by 1, 7, 1 and 3 points. They are 3-0 SU on the road, with every win coming out East. That's surprising as historically the Silver and Black have been very bad in these early start times. Even more surprising is what a public team the Raiders have become this year. But they're lucky not to have a losing record. In Week 1, they won at New Orleans on a two-point conversion. After being beaten outright at home by Atlanta in Week 2, they were outgained in both road wins over Tennessee and Baltimore. The win over the Ravens saw them on the wrong end of a rather massive 412-261 discrepancy in total yards. Incredibly, the Raiders have actually been outgained in ALL SIX games this year! When the beat Baltimore, it was courtesy of a last second TD. San Diego botched a potential game-tying field goal the following week. Last week, they were pretty much dominated by the Chiefs and didn't score a single point in the second half.

Jacksonville's offense has been tabbed as "disappointing" to this point, but they are only five touchdowns off LY's pace. I can see them making that up here. Expect a big game from QB Blake Bortles going against the league's worst ranked defense in terms of total yards (445 YPG). The Raiders are a bit fortunate that they're giving up "only" 27.2 PPG given that total yardage. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's defense has been much improved this year (8th in yards allowed). Oakland's offense struggles to run the ball and Jacksonville hasn't given up 100 yds rushing in four of five games. 8* Jacksonville

10* Under Redskins/Lions (1:00 ET): Dating back to last year, Washington has been winning big for Over bettors. The Over is 10-1 their last 11 games overall including 5-1 this season. Last week's game vs. Philadelphia just snuck over the total of 45.0 (27-20 final), but note that the defense actually did not give up a single TD and allowed just 239 total yards. The Eagles' two touchdowns came on a kickoff return and an interception return. It was the third consecutive game that the Redskins allowed 20 points or fewer. Despite that, we find the highest O/U line for any of their 2016 games to date as they venture into the Motor City to take on a Lions team that has hardly been an offensive juggernaut itself the last several weeks. Take the Under.

Detroit opened this season by going to Indianapolis and pulling out a 39-35 outright win. But it's since been well-established that the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the entire league. Since that time, the Lions haven't been particularly impressive on offense. They did score 27 points against Green Bay in Week 3, but that was a byproduct of falling behind early and taking advantage of some soft Packers' coverage. The L3 games have seen the Lions held to an average of only 285 YPG. Last week against the Rams was the team's highest scoring game since the opener (31 points). But it was also the fourth straight week they failed to even gain 85 yards rushing. I do not expect them to run the ball w/ much effectiveness here as Theo Reddick has again been ruled out. Better coverage and tackling has resulted in Washington allowing just 15 second half points the L4 games. 

Four game win streak be damned, I'm still not a believer in Kirk Cousins. His propensity for turning the ball over is what kept the Eagles in the game last week. Now the Washington offense did roll up almost 500+ total yds against a good Eagles defense. But that was easily a season-high and will not be sustained. A key vs. Philadelphia was running for a stunning 230 rush yards. Detroit allowed only 76 LW to Todd Gurley and the Rams. Save for the Colts game, this is the highest total for any Lions game this year and there's a chance it could close higher than that season opener. Washington also won't have TE Jordan Reed, a big part of their offense, again. I can't see them being as successful as they were last week, here, without him. 10* Under Redskins/Lions

10* Nevada (10:30 ET): Both of these teams are off bye weeks. Wyoming is a program that appears to be ascending as they've pulled B2B upsets, first over Colorado State, then unbeaten Air Force. I was on the one over Colorado State, which was a dominant 38-17 victory on the road, so I was a bit surprised to see that the Rams outgained them 481-434. A big difference there was a +2 turnover margin for the Pokes. Turnovers again lent a helping hand in the win over Air Force (were +3) as they won 35-26 (as 13-pt dogs) despite a meager 362-337 edge in total yds. That game was also in Laramie where the Coyboys are now a respectable 12-9 SU since the start of the 2013 campaign. But the road has been a different story as they are 2-13 SU under Craig Bohl and they're actually favored here. We saw how well that worked out last month when they went to Ypsilanti and lost outright to Eastern Michigan 27-24 as six-point chalk. I think you have to fade this team laying points on the road.

Meanwhile, Nevada appears to be trending in the wrong direction in the the fourth year under HC Brian Polian. The Wolfpack were coming off B2B 7-6 seasons, but have already lost SU four times this year and are 1-6 ATS. Before the bye, they lost an ugly 14-10 decision at San Jose State where they were 2.5-pt pups. Interesting though is that all three wins this season have come here in Reno (0-4 SU on the road). So homefield advantage definitely plays a significant role in handicapping this matchup. This is homecoming weekend on campus, by the way. It's also a revenge game as Nevada lost LY in Laramie, 28-21 as a six-point favorite. Now, a year later, they find themselves basically in the same price range at home!

One thing Nevada does well is protect the football. They've turned it over only four times all season! Wyoming has forced 14 TO's, so keep an eye on that battle during this game. Presuming Nevada can continue to protect the ball, they should be in good shape. Back to Wyoming's difficulty winning games on the road. They've given up an average of 510 YPG in visits to Nebraska, Eastern Michigan and Colorado State thus far. That outright loss at EMU was the first and only time they've been favored in a road game under Bohl. Meanwhile, this is just the fourth time in the L2 years that Nevada has been a home dog. The previous three times were to Boise State & a pair of Pac 12 teams. Super value here. 10* Nevada

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Cubs +1.5. There is no denying Clayton Kershaw's exploits or value to the Dodgers. The team is 4-0 this postseason in games that he pitches (including his save in Gm 5 of the LDS) and just 1-5 otherwise. But with the Cubs now favored to take this series and back at home for Game 6, being able to get an additional run and a half seems like a real bargain to me. It's not like the Cubs don't have a strong pitcher going in this spot in their own right. Kyle Hendricks has a 1.41 ERA and 0.889 WHIP at the Friendly Confines this season and though he took the loss opposite Kershaw in Game 2, it was 1-0. I had the Under in that matchup, but here I see the Cubs again doing no worse than a one-run loss and the possibility of them moving on to their first World Series since 1945. Take the +1.5.

The Cubs offense, or rather lack of it, had been the focal point of this series before they took Games 4 and 5. I was on them in both of those spots (won 10-2 and 8-4) and made mention that the Dodgers offense hadn't exactly been hitting the cover off the ball either. This postseason has seen LA average only 3.6 runs per game w/ a .228 team batting average. Like the Cubs, all offensive numbers are down from the regular season. Now they must go to the venue where visitors scored the fewest runs in the regular season. Save for a late inning outburst against Aroldis Chapman in Gm 1, the LA lineup did very little in the first two games of the series. Of course, the Cubs gave up only 3.0 rpg in the reg season here at home and Hendricks was a major reason for that. Though he hasn't gone particularly deep in either postseason start thus far, Hendricks did allow only three hits in 5 1/3 IP in Game 2. Since August 1st, he's allowed 2 ER or less in 12 of 13 starts.

Kershaw's exploits are well-known, but take note that all three of his postseason victories have come by exactly one run! In fact, half of his starts this year (12 of 24) have been ended up being one-run games! So, the run line really seems like the right way to go here. Also, let us not forget about the fact the Cubs are 60-25 this season at home. They're also 16-5 when taking the field w/ a day off. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Cubs finish off the Dodgers tonight. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5)

10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): The Red Raiders are off one of the poorest offensive performances of the Kliff Kingsbury era last week as they were held to "only" 379 yards total by West Virginia (almost all of them passing obviously). That's 280 YPG fewer than what they came in averaging for the season, not to mention 33 pts under their season average. Furthermore, they were held to just 1.55 yards per drive and 4.9 yards per play, their lowest averages in any game in the past two seasons. Things won't get any easier this week as Oklahoma comes calling to Lubbock, but I simply don't see any way that Texas Tech doesn't improve upon LW's offensive disappointment and this is certainly a ton of points to be catching here at home.

It's important to note that West Virginia was off a bye last week. Meanwhile, Texas Tech was coming off a crushing 44-38 loss at Kansas State where they had a massive 592-335 edge in total yards. It was obviously going to be very tough for the Red Raiders to get back up "off the mat" for that WVU game. But here, emotions should be high as Baker Mayfield returns to campus, now quarterbacking the enemy. This figures to be the big storyline Saturday night. When Mayfield returned here in 2014, simply as an OU transfer that was sitting out & not playing, he was run out of a local restaurant (not making this up!) and booed vociferously on the sidelines. While Mayfield has had a lot of success in Norman, Tech has a more than capable signal caller of their own, that being Patrick Mahomes, who currently leads the nation in passing yardage (2,579). His 21 TD passes are also tops among Big 12 QB's. Mahomes did not appear to be at 100% LW vs. West Virginia, which probably played a big role in the team failing to score 50 pts for the first time in its last TEN home games. 

So Oklahoma's defense certainly figures to have its hands full Saturday night. While the Sooners have won three straight, two of those wins came by six points or less (TCU, Texas) and then last week was a favorable spot at home vs. Kansas State. This three-game win streak should not mask the fact that Bob Stoops' team has been a major disappointment in 2016, already having suffered crushing losses to Houston and Ohio State, neither of which was a "true" road game. TCU was the only "true" road game so far and they gave up 46 points there, part of a three-game stretch where they allowed 40+ points every time out. In what figures to be a high-scoring affair, Texas Tech will get enough to stay within this generous number. 10* Texas Tech

10* Over Rangers/Capitals (7:05 ET): Two of the three favorites in the Metro collide Saturday night in the Nation's capital. After losing the season opener to the other division powerhouse, Pittsburgh by a score of 3-2, the Caps have come back and taken their L3 games with an ascending number of goals scored every time out. Thursday was their highest scoring game of the season as they beat Florida 4-2. Meanwhile, it's been real "feast or famine" offensively for the Rangers as they've scored 5 and 7 goals in their two wins, but only 2 and 1 in their two losses. The Under might be 58-39 the L97 meetings between these teams, including 33-19 here in D.C., but I see this one going the other way. Take the Over.

Last year, these teams met five times. All five games saw at least five total goals scored. Four of those saw at least seven total goals scored! Washington does enter this game 1st in the league in goals allowed per game (1.3), but something to watch for is that right now they are only 25th on the penalty kill. Already, they have given up three power play goals in four games. I'd say the Rangers, who are just 2 for 14 w/ the man advantage so far, are due to break out if given that opportunity here. Washington is giving up an average of only 24.5 shots per game, but the Rangers are averaging 34.0 for per game. So something will have to give.

It's a similar story on the flip side. The Rangers are allowing only 23.7 shots per game, but Washington is averaging 34.5 for per game. So this is a battle of the #2 and #3 team in shots per game right now (Ottawa is #1). One interesting thing though is while the Rangers aren't giving up a ton of shots per game, their save percentage is only .874, which isn't good at all. Henrik Lundqvist has already given up eight goals on 64 shots. Offensively, the Rangers outshot Detroit 33-18 on Wednesday, but after scoring 69 seconds into the game, didn't score again. That despite three breakaway attempts that were stymied. Remember they scored 14 goals in the first three games. Washington will be one of the strongest offensive teams in this league all year long, so this shapes up as an easy Over for me. 10* Over Rangers/Capitals

8* Auburn (6:00 ET): This is a very interesting line, isn't it? Both teams come in ranked in the Top 25 (Auburn 21st, Arkansas 17th) and the Hogs have a slightly better overall record (5-2 SU, 4-2 SU), yet come in as a pretty sizable underdog here in Jordan-Hare. Brett Bielema's Razorbacks already have a couple of SU dog wins to their credit, one at TCU and then last week at home over Ole Miss. But, of course, the reason Arkansas has one more win than Auburn does at the moment is due to the fact the latter had LW off. I think the bye week is a huge advantage as the Tigers have had two full weeks to prepare while it's absolutely fair to question what Arkansas will have left in the tank following a brutal gauntlet that has included A&M, Bama and Ole Miss in the L4 weeks. Lay the points here.

I should have probably mentioned this in the UNC writeup as well, but there's something to be said about a team not yet having had its bye at this point in the season. Like North Carolina, Arkansas now finds itself playing for an eighth consecutive week. (Both teams are off next week). That can catch up w/ you, especially in this rugged SEC West. Meanwhile, Auburn is off a bye and at home, giving them significant edges. Interestingly, when these teams met LY, the opposite held true. Arkansas was off a bye and that probably played a significant role in them being able to pull out a 54-46 win in four overtimes. While that game may have been close, 11 of the past 15 Arkansas-Auburn meetings have been decided by 17+ points! Two years ago here in Jordan-Hare, it was 45-21 Auburn w/ a 595-328 edge in total yards. Auburn is 5-0 SU under HC Gus Malzahn w/ an extra week to prepare, including three victories over Top 25 teams!

Auburn just might be the strongest two-loss team in the country right now. Those two losses have been to Clemson and Texas A&M, both of whom are unbeaten. Now Arkansas probably would scream "what about us?" as their two losses have been to A&M and Alabama. But the Hogs defense has looked very bad in the three games it has played against top level competition, giving up 572 yards to TCU, 591 yards against A&M and 517 yards to Alabama. Before the bye, Auburn was very impressive as they went to Starkville and thrashed Mississippi State 38-14 in the team's first "true" road game of the season. This defense has looked very impressive this year in giving up only 10 touchdowns total. So far, A&M is the only team to get to 20 points against them. The Tigers average 263 yards rushing per game, and that includes gaining only 83 vs. Clemson, so I expect them to gash this Arkansas defense. 8* Auburn

10* TCU (3:30 ET): As we approach the second to last Saturday in October, there are only 11 FBS teams still undefeated. One is 5-0 West Virginia, but in all due respect, the Mountaineers may be the weakest of the bunch, at least among the Power 5 schools. Now, I say that fully aware of what they did to Texas Tech last weekend. The Mounties went to Lubbock and destroyed the Red Raiders, 48-17 in a game the oddsmakers rated as a virtual pick 'em. But that was somewhat of an ideal setup for Dana Holgerson's team as they were coming off a bye and Texas Tech was off a brutal 44-38 loss to Kansas State (where it had a 592-335 edge in total yds). Here, WVU returns home but coming in will be a rested TCU squad (had last wk off) that I believe is their toughest opponent to date. Take the points as Gary Patterson teams are usually a great value as a dog.

Coming off an impressive 11-2 SU campaign in 2015, TCU already has two losses on its resume this year, but those came against Arkansas and Oklahoma. While both losses took place in Ft. Worth, they came by a total of nine points (Arkansas game went to OT). Also, I'd consider those teams to be stronger than WVU despite what the records might say. The Horned Frogs somewhat sleepwalked their way to a 24-23 win at Kansas two weeks ago, but every other game has seen them score at least 33 points. That makes them an ideal underdog call, especially considering they were a perfect 5 for 5 ATS in that role prior to coming up just short at home vs. Oklahoma a few weeks ago. The Horned Frogs are outgaining opponents by a healthy 107 YPG this year and still gained 1100+ yards in the two losses. Last year, they destroyed West Virginia 40-10 as 14-point favorites. 

West Virginia still being unbeaten isn't that big of a surprise considering LW was the first time they had to play a "true" road game. As already noted, they did so w/ an extra week to prepare. Plus, Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes was not 100%. That probably explains why the Mountaineers were able to hold the Red Raiders to 280 yards and 38 points below their respective season averages. It is surprising to see a defense that lost NINE starters from a year ago be this productive as the odd 3-3-5 alignment seems to be working. But despite allowing only 19.4 PPG, WVU is still allowing 411 YPG and I look for them to struggle against QB Kenny Hill and the TCU offense. The Mountaineers have two close wins to their credit this year, 17-16 over Kansas State and 35-32 over BYU. Furthermore, they are just 3-6 ATS the L3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 10* TCU

8* Stanford (3:00 ET): At the beginning of this season, or even a a month ago for that matter, who would have thought Stanford would barely be favored to beat Colorado here in Palo Alto? And, furthermore, as a small dog the Buffs seem to be getting the lions' share of the money. That's all due to the fact they are a perfect 7-0 against the spread to this point (nation's lone unbeaten ATS team) after another blowout win last week, 40-16 over Arizona State. But that was in Boulder. Both CU SU losses this year (Michigan, USC) have taken place on the road and their one "true" road win came against Oregon by only three points. I feel the market has shifted too far in favor of Mike MacIntyre's team and too far against David Shaw's. I'll gladly lay the very short number.

It's easy to forget now, but Stanford came into this season ranked #8 in the country and was thought to be a legit CFP contender. That all changed w/ the 44-6 whitewashing at the hands of Washington (I had the Huskies there!) and then came a stunning 42-16 loss to Washington State here at home the following week. Even during the team's 3-0 SU start, they were not particularly impressive. We all know about the extreme fortune involved in them covering at UCLA (who is another Pac 12 disappointment). But the offense was also held under 300 total yds by Kansas State and to 109 yds passing against USC in the first two games. It took a yeoman's effort by the defense in LW's 17-10 upset of Notre Dame (D scored BOTH TD's), but they got the job done even w/o star RB Christian McCaffery. There is a chance that McCaffery may miss this game as well. Regardless, the play stands.

The key here will be the Stanford defense. In the team's four wins this season, they have allowed 13 pts or less. In the two losses, they've allowed 44 and 42 points. Colorado has topped 40 in each of its three Pac 12 wins, but those were against Oregon, Oregon State and Arizona State, all at home. They were held to only 17 pts at USC and the 28 pts scored against Michigan came w/ a special teams TD as the offense was held to only 325 yds in that game, gaining roughly one-third of that on two pass plays. USC outgained them 539-371 two weeks ago and that probably "should have" been a bigger loss considering USC was inside CU 5-yd line when they decided to run out the clock and also turned the ball over four times. Stanford has taken on the harder schedule to this point, has a significant edge on special teams (especially if McCaffery is back) and we saw last week what CB Quenton Meeks means to this defense (he returned an INT for a TD) after missing several games. 8* Stanford

8* Virginia (3:00 ET): The "sharp" money that came in on Virginia last week turned out be not all that sharp as the Hoos fell here in Charlottesville, 45-31 to Pitt. But they get another home game this week, this one against North Carolina in what is billed as "the oldest rivalry in the South" (game played every year since 1919!). The Tar Heels have owned the rivalry of late, winning six straight by an average of 19 points per game, and come in "flying high" off a 20-13 win over Miami that was far more dominant than the final score lets on. But laying this many points in the second of B2B road games can be tricky, especially when UNC has two wins by two points or less already this year. Take the points here and an outright upset is a distinct possibility.

The Bronco Mendenhall era certainly got off to a rather auspicious start as UVA stood at 0-3 w/ a loss to FCS Richmond in the season opener. Losing at Oregon, even though the Ducks are in a down year, is still excusable and a three-point loss at UConn saw the Cavaliers finish w/ a 381-277 edge in total yards (blew 10-3 fourth quarter lead). The season turned around when the offense put up 569 total yards and 49 points in a blowout win over Central Michigan here at home. Then came a 34-20 win at Duke that made it four consecutive covers. But last week was a tough one as a defense which had been solid against the run the previous three weeks got gashed for 200+ yds by a strong Pitt run game. However, it should be noted that UVA led that game 28-21 very late in the first half before Pitt scored two TDs, one an INT return w/ just four seconds to go before halftime, which really swung the game. Despite that non-cover, the Cavaliers remain one of the best underdog bets in the entire country at 17-4 ATS the L3 seasons!

North Carolina's three ACC wins have come by a total of 10 points, so that certainly makes them appear to be a shaky favorite, especially in this price range. The defense really stepped up LW in Coral Gables vs. Miami, but let us not forget what happened to this team the previous week, at home. They were destroyed 34-3 by Va Tech and held to just 131 total yds of offense! The week before that was a very lucky win against Florida State on a long FG w/ no time remaining. The week before that, they rallied back from a 13-point fourth quarter deficit against Pitt. Not all the news was good LW either as top WR Mack Hollins was lost to a season-ending collarbone injury. 8* Virginia

10* Boston College (12:30 ET): Initially, it might seem odd to find a team that's lost its last 11 ACC games favored in conference play. But let's examine that 11-game losing streak, shall we? Five of the losses have been by three points or less. That certainly doesn't include the last two where BC has been bludgeoned by Va Tech and Clemson to the tune of 105-10. But they've had more than two full weeks to recover from the embarrassing 56-10 setback to the latter here in Chesnut Hill. This week, the Eagles are catching Syracuse in a prime letdown spot, that being a week removed from a somewhat stunning 31-17 upset of Va Tech (as 22.5-pt dogs!) in the Carrier Dome. This is also a revenge spot for the home team, who lost to the Orange in LY's finale, 20-17 as a three-point road choice. A better BC team is now being asked to lay a near identical number on its home field. Their last ACC win did come against this opponent, 28-7 in 2014's season finale, here at home. Lay the points.

Boston College had the #1 defense in the country last year as they allowed just 17.2 points and 276 yards per game. As a result, their coordinator on that side of the ball, Don Brown, was hired away by Michigan. Save for the two aforementioned losses to Va Tech & Clemson, the stop unit has remained strong, having allowed 17 pts or less in the other four games. The offense was ranked third worst in FBS last year and remains a work in progress, but has been able to put up good numbers against the weaker opponents so far. Syracuse does not have a good defense as they allow 474 yds per game and was infamously shredded by Louisville to the tune of 847 yards! The three games in which BC has been favored thus far have seen them win by an average of 27.7 PPG!

Going into LW, Syracuse had just one win over a FBS foe (UConn) and was 1-4 SU/ATS its last five games. Shockingly, they put up 561 yards against a very good Virginia Tech defense. But that was in the Carrier Dome. This is a program w/ just one ACC road win the L3 seasons, that being against Wake Forest in 2014. Since then, they've lost eight straight on the conference road by an average of more than 17 PPG. Their only ACC win LY was against BC, 20-17, and as mentioned earlier they were actually three-point home dogs in that one. I look for the revenge angle to be strong here and love the setup w/ BC having the extra week to prepare while Syracuse is off its biggest win in some time and thus prone to a letdown. Looking at the rest of BC's schedule, they have to figure this is their best shot at ending the ACC losing streak. I expect perhaps their best game of the season. 10* Boston College

10* Oregon (10:30 ET): This game features quite possibly the highest total I have ever tracked and could close above 90 points (currently 89.5). So, certainly, we should expect a lot of scoring when Oregon and Cal take the field Friday night in Berkeley. We should also expect a desperate Ducks team as HC Mark Helfrich finds himself coaching for his job, despite being only two years removed from an appearance in the National Title Game. The season so far has been a disaster in Eugene w/ UO having lost four straight coming into tonight while allowing an almost unspeakable 49.25 points per game. But, having had last week off to recoup, I feel we're likely to see a far better showing Friday night. Like most Pac 12 rivals, Oregon has owned Cal through the years. While the Ducks' last three opponents have all been able to reverse the trends, the difference here is that the Bears are not a program on the upswing. Take the points. 

Oregon has taken 15 of the previous 19 head to head meetings including seven straight by an average of 26 points per game. Last year was a 44-28 drubbing in Eugene (UO was favored by four points) and that was w/ Cal having Jared Goff under center. Certainly, the Oregon programs seems to be trending in the wrong direction, but it's difficult to ignore some numbers. They are 9-2 SU L11 weekday games, 27-3 SU L30 Pac 12 road games and 4-1 ATS the L3 seasons as an underdog. Prior to the start of the year, no one would have thought the Ducks would be the dog in this game. Furthermore, they are getting almost no public support here. Needless to say, it has been a very long time since an Oregon football team has lost four straight games. Note that two of the losses have come by a field goal and those were against better teams than Cal (Nebraska, Colorado).

Cal is a team as inept defensively as Oregon, so that helps. The Bears last five games have all been decided by a TD or less and you might recall that I went against them two weeks ago at Oregon State when they lost outright, as 13-pt favorites, 47-44. It was a game they never led, gave up 559 yds (to the worst team in the conference) and trailed by 17 in the fourth quarter. They too had last week off. Prior to losing outright in Corvallis, Cal was lucky to beat Utah here at home as they needed a goal line stand to close the game. Prior to that, they allowed 51 pts in a loss to Arizona State. Oregon has been rightfully mocked for giving up 41.8 PPG this year, but Cal is right there with them at 40.0. Something to take note of w/ the Bears is the injury situation. QB Davis Webb hurt his hand vs. OSU and HC Sonny Dykes said that had the team played last week, Webb would have sat out. Also, RB Vic Enwere is done for the season after breaking his foot vs. OSU. Look for the underdog to simply outscore the favorite in this one, a game Helfrich must have. 10* Oregon

8* Puck Line Arizona (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Coyotes +1.5. The Yotes opened their season w/ a 4-3 win on home ice over Philadelphia. But since embarking on what will be a six-game East Coast swing, things have not gone so well. They've dropped the first two games on the trip, at Ottawa and Montreal, giving up 12 goals in the process. Now they return Stateside to take on an Islanders club that has had its own set of issues out of the box. You may have noticed that it took awhile for the oddsmakers to act here as there was no line until this morning. That's because it took awhile for Arizona to decide who would be starting between the pipes. Turns out that honor falls to Luis Domingue.

It has not been a good start to the season for Domingue as he was pulled early last night in Montreal after giving up four goals on just 19 shots. That came on the heels of a poor relief effort in the Ottawa game where he allowed three goals on just 11 shots in less than 12 minutes of ice time. A woeful .767 save percentage won't keep you in this league for long, but I expect the young goaltender to bounce back tonight. In last year's rookie season, he looked good at time, especially in January where he posted six wins, including a shutout, and a 2.20 GAA. That played a major role in the club signing him to a two-year deal. Domingue's first career shutout, ironically, came at the Islanders' expense. It was a 1-0 win in the desert last December.

You may think that the Coyotes are at a big disadvantage here playing w/o rest, but take note of the fact that NY's last opponent (San Jose) also came to Brooklyn w/o rest and wound up pulling out a 3-2 victory. That was after the Sharks had given up seven goals the previous night. It was the Isles that looked flat in that one as they managed only four shots on goal in the first period and 23 total. This is a team that has scored only nine goals in four games, so getting an additional 1.5 to go against them seems like a nice luxury to have. 8* Puck Line Arizona (+1.5)

10* BYU (10:15 ET): BYU, now an independent, has taken on quite the daunting schedule to this point. They were a go against for me last Friday as they were caught laying a season-high 7.5 points to Mississippi State (won by seven in double OT). Except for a 31-14 win over Michigan State (in East Lansing), every BYU game has been close this year as in decided by seven points or less. Thus, with them now back in the more comfortable underdog role this week, I'm on them and taking the points. Boise State comes in undefeated, but even w/ this game taking on the blue turf, they seem overvalued. Two of their wins have been by five points or less including last Saturday night here vs. Colorado State. The competition they've faced thus far is much weaker than what BYU has seen. Take the points.

This is the first time all year that Boise State isn't being asked to lay double digits. Supporters of the Broncos may want to point to that and say "value," but to me, it speaks to the relatively low level of competition BSU has faced so far. Their most impressive win was against Washington State (think about that statement for a second!), 31-28 as 13-pt chalk. Including that non-cover, they're only 1-4 ATS the L5 weeks. While it's true the defense made things more interesting than they should have vs. Colorado State (allowed 20 4Q points), it's also true that the offense was held to only one TD in the first half. This will be the toughest opponent that Boise faces during the regular season and they're doing so on a short week.

These teams have met each of the last four years w/ the home team winning SU every time. But BYU did lose by only one point (7-6!) in a visit back in 2012. Last year in Provo, they won 35-23 as three-point favorites, so using that line as a barometer, it would appear to be some value in taking the points here. Boise State's record is what's inflated this line for sure and it should be pointed out BYU is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games. I keep coming back to the schedule, which has seen BYU take on Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Toledo, Michigan State and Mississippi State. That's got to be the toughest schedule any team in the country has faced and the Cougars' three losses have come by a TOTAL of seven points. 10* BYU

8* Chicago (8:25 ET): With the Cubs fighting for their playoff lives out in LA, little attention is likely to be paid to Chicago's football team this evening, but I feel they're a good value getting more than a touchdown against a Green Bay team that no longer has the look of a Super Bowl contender. As dire as things may look for the Bears right now at 1-5 (both SU and ATS), they've actually outgained each of their L2 opponents (Indianapolis & Jacksonville) only to come up just short on the scoreboard in both instances. For an uninspired a choice as Brian Hoyer may seem to be for this team, he's actually the first Bears QB in HISTORY to throw for 300+ yards in four consecutive games. I'm taking the points here.

Though they're being outscored by exactly one touchdown per game, the Bears have actually outgained their opponents this year (by roughly 30 yards per game). Moving the ball has not really been an issue as two weeks ago, they gained over 500 total yds against an admittedly shoddy Colts defense. That's actually the only game though that they've scored more than 20 pts this season. But that's a little unfair as they are actually dead last in yards per point (22.3), a highly unsustainable number and a sign that increased scoring should be on the horizon. In that 29-23 loss to the Colts, they finished w/ a +126 edge in total yards, but gave up 10 points late to lose the game. Last week hosting Jacksonville was even more painful as they blew a 13-0 lead in the fourth quarter, again giving up 10 pts in the final five minutes, including the GW TD on a 51-yd TD pass w/ just 2:49 remaining. This team is better than its record, in my opinion.

Meanwhile, there's major trouble w/ this Packers offense. Last week's 30-16 home loss to Dallas was a real "eye-opener" for me as GB was thoroughly dominated. This offense, once considered a juggernaut, has really struggled as well and that includes QB Aaron Rodgers. The Pack scored only one TD in four red zone opportunities LW and Rodgers turned it over twice himself. Running the ball has been a problem as injuries have decimated their backfield to the point they had to bring in Knile Davis from the Chiefs. Last week saw GB run for only 78 yds on 24 carries. Speaking of injuries, their defense may be w/o their three top cornerbacks in this game. The Bears will score more than anticipated and keep this one close throughout. 8* Chicago

6* Puck Line Toronto (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Maple Leafs +1.5. As you probably know, the Leafs have been down in the proverbial dumps the L2 seasons. Last year's 69-point finish had them last in the league. But that gave them the opportunity to select Auston Matthews and already we're starting to see signs of improvement. Much of that is attributable to Matthews himself as the rookie scored four goals on Opening Night. (Granted, the team still lost 5-4 in OT). It was another overtime loss last night, this one in Winnipeg, a game where I easily cashed the Over. The final score there was also 5-4. Given the Leafs have scored exactly four goals in every game and have yet to be beaten in regulation, I feel the PL is a solid choice here.

Minnesota opened its year by losing 3-2 at St. Louis. They've since posted B2B wins here at home, the most recent coming by a 6-3 margin over the Quick-less Kings Tuesday night. The other win was of the one-goal variety (4-3) against Winnipeg on Saturday. That was the only game of the three that the Wild have had the edge in shots as they actually gave up 30 to the Kings two nights ago. While the penalty kill is a perfect 13 for 13 so far, the power play is just 2 for 13. Though Wild fans will point to a five-game winning streak over the Leafs as some sort of sign of dominance, note that four of those games were decided by a one-goal margin! Goaltender Devan Dubnyk hasn't been that impressive yet, allowing six goals on 48 shots for an .875 save percentage. He allowed four goals on just 17 shots in his last start.

Toronto actually led Winnipeg 4-0 last night. So while it would be easy to write them off in this second game of a back to back, I feel this young team will be quite hungry to take the ice tonight. Matthews may have only one point (an assist last night) in the L2 games, but given the brilliance that we saw in that opening game, I wouldn't expect him to be down for long. Again, both losses this season have come in OT and such a scenario would be fine here. The Leafs are doing a great job at getting the puck on net (34 shots/game). In goal, we're likely to see Jhonas Enroth for the first time this season. I see the Leafs doing no worse than a one-goal loss here. 6* Puck Line Toronto (+1.5).

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): What a difference one game can make! Cubs fans were rightly getting very nervous after their team was shutout in B2B losses in Games 2 and 3. In fact, four of the seven times the Cubs have been shutout this year has come courtesy of Dodger Blue. But, as I mentioned in yday's analysis, the Cubs had not lost three in a row since an early July swoon (now 6-0 off B2B losses since then). The offense finally broke out in a 10-2 win last night and now they can head back to Wrigley up 3-2 in the series. I look for the offensive resurgence to continue at the expense of struggling LA starter Kenta Maeda, who has an atrocious 11.17 ERA and 2.585 WHIP his L3 starts. With Clayton Kershaw starting Gm 6 in Chicago, the Cubs cannot afford to drop this one.

The pitching matchup here is a rematch of Game 1. That mean Jon Lester goes for the Cubs and he was very sharp in the series opener, holding the Dodgers to just one run and four hits over six innings. That one run allowed came via a solo home run. For as much criticism as the Cubs' offense has rightly taken of late, the Dodgers' lineup hasn't really been any more productive as they're batting a collective .220 the L7 games w/ just 3.7 runs per game scored. They're unlikely to turn things around here against Lester, who has allowed 1 ER or less in 10 of his last 11 starts! It certainly wasn't his fault that Gm 1 got close (manager Joe Maddon pulled him for a pinch hitter) and w/ a 0.839 WHIP his L7 starts, he should hold LA in check once again. The Cubs are 26-8 this year in all Lester starts, including 14-3 L17.

Meanwhile, Maeda has been a disaster. He lasted only four innings in Game 1 after making it through just three in his lone LDS vs. the Nationals. In fact, he hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any of his last six starts. That puts a lot of pressure on this Dodgers' bullpen. As I said in yday's analysis, I'm not overly concerned w/ the Cubs offense as they led the NL in runs scored during the regular season. This price range does not seem to be a bad value when you consider they are 15-5 this season as road favorites in the -150 to -175 range on the ML (29-10 L3 seasons). I had the Cubs winning this series, so its only logical I'd continue to back them here. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Over Ducks/Flyers (7:05 ET): What's amazing to note here is that neither team has played a home game! That obviously has to change here and fortunately for Philly they are the ones who get to play host. Anaheim has started 0-4 and mercifully their road trip (all games out East) comes to an end here. Right now, they are only 29th in goals per game (averaging 1.8) as they've yet to top two in any one game. But I would look for that to change here against a Flyers team that just gave up seven goals in its last outing. The Ducks scored four times each in a pair of wins over Philadelphia last season and given that they are averaging a healthy 30.2 shots per game so far, the puck should hopefully start finding the back of the net.

So far, every Flyers game has gone Over the total. The year started w/ a 4-2 win at Los Angeles (game where Jonathan Quick got hurt), but they've since dropped B2B games while conceding 11 goals. First it was a 4-3 loss at Arizona, then a 7-4 loss at Chicago. With those kind of numbers, it's not a shock to see that both goaltenders - Steve Mason and Michael Neuvirth - have save percentages of .870 or below. Currently, their goals per game average (4.3) ranks 28th. What's particularly frightening is that they allowed the seven goals on just 28 shots Tuesday. It figures to be Mason between the pipes tonight and he was the one responsible for allowing seven of the eight goals (on 62 shots) against the Ducks last year (there was one empty-netter as well).

Three of the last four meetings between these teams have gone Over w/ one push. Only one Anaheim game, their last, didn't see at least five total goals scored. They are also allowing 30+ shots per game so far, so the Flyers should have ample opportunity to score here as well. In all three games, Philly has scored at least three goals, which has them in the top 10 in goals per game in the entire league right now. The Over is 14-8 in Flyers' home games when the total is 5.0 or less. 10* Over Ducks/Flyers

8* Virginia Tech (7:00 ET): The Hokies were stunned last week, losing outright as 22.5-pt favorites in the Carrier Dome, to Syracuse. That came on the heels of three consecutive victories where they'd outscored the opposition 137-20, including 34-3 over North Carolina, which looks all the more impressive given what UNC did to Miami last week (more on that momentarily). Prior to last week, Va Tech's only other SU loss this season came at a neutral setting (Bristol, TN) against a Tennessee team they outgained rather significantly (but a -4 TO margin ended up being the difference). After allowing 561 yards to Syracuse, I look for the Hokies defense to bounce back here in Blacksburg, which is one of the toughest places to play at in the entire ACC, especially at night. Lay the points.

Miami is off B2B outright losses following a 4-0 SU start. Both losses came at home, which isn't the best sign. This team had not really been tested in its first four games w/ wins over Florida Atlantic, Florida A&M, Applachian State and Georgia Tech. Despite beating Ga Tech 35-21, the edge in total yards was slightly in favor of the Yellow Jackets. The difference for Miami ended up being TWO "scoop and scores" (fumble returns for TDs). Special teams were not as kind the following week vs. Florida State as the 'Canes lost 20-19 due to a blocked XP. The offense also gained a season-low 276 total yds in that loss. Last week, it was the defense's turn to take the blame as they gave up a season-worst 461 total yds in a 20-13 loss to North Carolina. Don't be fooled by the "closeness" of that final score either; it was a 20-3 game at halftime.

Miami has beaten Va Tech B2B years and never trailed in either game. But they haven't won three straight over the Hokies since 2000-02. I look for that to stay the case for a number of reasons. One, as I said earlier, the Hokies defense should bounce back. It was just two weeks ago that they held North Carolina to only 131 total yds (in Chapel Hill). That performance against the same team that just dominated Miami's defense should count for something in handicapping this matchup. Two, is the Blacksburg factor. In three home games thus far, Va Tech is outscoring opponents by 36.3 PPG. Three, is that Miami could be w/o as many as three key defensive linemen here, which will be a problem against the tempo of the Va Tech offense. Both of these programs have had success in the past on Thursday nights, but I'll side w/ the Hokies 22-12 ATS mark. 8* Virginia Tech

10* Over Maple Leafs/Jets (8:05 ET): No Canadian teams made the playoffs last year and these two finished in last place of their respective divisions. In fact, Toronto finished w/ the fewest points in the sport (69) while Winnipeg wasn't that far ahead w/ only 78. That all being said, there is some reason for optimism in both camps heading into this season. The Leafs have Auston Matthews, whose pro debut (four goals) couldn't have gone any better. Meanwhile, I've seen some repuatable folks project the Jets to finish as high as third in the West this year! For this battle of Eastern vs. Western Canada, I'm refraining from a side play and instead looking at the total. Take the Over.

Matthews' scintillating debut was actually not enough for Toronto to beat Ottawa in the season opener. No one else on the team scored. But it was a more well-rounded effort in getting to four goals and beating Boston Saturday. Rookies accounted for the team's first six goals this year, which certainly is a good sign for the future. Unfortunately, lacking experience on the ice often leads to mistakes as well and against Boston, there was long stretches where they allowed the Bruins to control the puck in the offensive zone. They were fortunate to give up only one goal as Frederik Andersen was much sharper than he was vs. Ottawa. He'll go again, but having stopped just 49 of 55 shots total isn't that impressive. The team's power play has also failed to impress, going 0 for 8 thus far. But you have to believe that given that many opportunities, a break out is just around the corner.

While Toronto lost its first game, 5-4 in OT, Winnipeg won its first game by that identical score, in OT no less. That was against Carolina. They came back Saturday to lose to Minnesota, 4-3, a game they had only 17 shots on goal. Things did not go well offensively in a 4-1 loss to Boston Monday, but they actually had 35 shots in that game. Their power play could also use some work as it too is 0 for 8 the last two games. At the same time, defense has been a major issue here as the Jets have given up four goals in every game. It will be Michael Hutchinson between the pipes tonight and in his first start he allowed four goals on 31 shots. 10* Over Maple Leafs/Jets

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): My goodness, what has happened to the mighty Cubs, specifically their offense? The vultures are starting to circle in the Windy City as the team has been shutout in B2B games. In the playoffs, the team is batting only .185! Not only have they been shutout each of the L2 games, they've actually been shutout four of the 10 times they've played the Dodgers this year. None of this sounds very good at all, especially considering this franchise's ominous history. But, I'll continue to "hang my hat" on the fact that this was the best team in baseball - by far - this year. They outscored opponents by 252 runs in the regular season for a reason. I mentioned in yday's analysis that they were outstanding off a loss (now 40-20), well, since a 1-8 stretch to start July, they are a perfect 5-0 off B2B losses. I'll stick w/ the Cubs.

Veteran John Lackey will toe the rubber for the Cubs in this all-important Game 4. The team has won each of his last four starts, including one in the LDS vs. San Francisco, not to mention eight of his last 10. Only once since the All-Star Break has Lackey allowed more than 3 ER in a start (he allowed 4 vs. Milwaukee on 9.16). Though he lasted only four innings vs. SF, that was one of just three times since the start of July that he failed to make it to the sixth. He should be well-rested and ready to go here having not pitched in eight days. Though he has not faced them yet this year, Lackey has most certainly had the Dodgers number in his career; in 12 starts his ERA is 1.74 and his WHIP is 0.928.

The Dodgers counter w/ Jose Urias, the youngest pitcher to start a playoff game in MLB history (20 years of age). That's a sharp contrast from Lackey, who at 37 has more career postseason starts (21) than any active pitcher. Urias faced the Cubs twice during the regular season to mixed results. He got hammered at Wrigley Field, but was pretty dominant here at home. This game being at Dodger Stadium makes it seem like it might go his way then, but I'll still side with the experience of Lackey. Prior to yday, the Cubs were 5-1 coming off a shutout loss this season. I have to think it's only a matter of time before the offense finally wakes up. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Under Flyers/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): Chicago has already played three games this season. They dropped the first two, but came back to win the second leg of a home and home w/ Nashville on Saturday, 5-3. That one was here at home. I'm a little surprised to see that the 'Hawks have allowed so many goals thus far (11). Part of that is they are giving up too many shots (34.5 per game), but I look for that number to come down and certainly an .885 save percentage to go up. On the other side of the ledger, they're not creating a ton of scoring opportunities of their own right now. They've averaged only 23.3 shots through three games and that's a problem. Thus, I'm on the Under here.

For Philly, this is the end of a three-game road trek to open the season. They split a pair of games out West, beating LA, but then losing at Arizona the following night. Both games went Over. They've managed 30 shots themselves in both games and have given up the same number (60) as well, but it was 25 in the win and 35 in the loss. Their power play (0 for 6) has been non-existent thus far while penalty killing was outstanding against the 'Yotes (6 for 7) all things considered. It appears as if Michael Neuvirth is the likely starter in goal tonight. He made 23 saves in the win against the Kings.

Chicago is still w/o forward Ryan Hartman. I also don't think they can continue to count on the surprising production of Richard Panik, who has scored four of the team's nine goals. Between the pipes, I look for Corey Crawford to be solid tonight. The Flyers actually won both meetings w/ the Blackhawks last season including a 3-0 shutout. Neither game saw more than five total goals scored. 10* Under Flyers/Blackhawks

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): All things considered, Jake Arrieta at this price seems like a real "steal." Yes, he may not be replicating his incredible 2015 campaign, but we're still talking about a pitcher w/ a 3.10 ERA and 1.087 WHIP this year. Given the scarcity of runs we typically see here at Dodger Stadium, I'd say LY's Cy Young winner is in line for a strong showing tonight in Game 3 of the NLCS . Oh by the way, the last time Arrieta pitched here, he tossed a no-hitter.  The LA lineup is batting a collective .218 here in the postseason. Lost in their own masterful pitching performance Sunday night (by Clayton Kershaw) was the fact they finished the game w/ only three hits. The Cubs are an outstanding 40-19 off a loss this year.

The Dodgers counter Arrieta w/ Rich Hill, who has certainly had a "short leash" thus far in the postseason. In two starts, he's lasted only seven innings total and given up five runs. I concede that he has pitched well at home since coming over in the trade from Oakland, but that's a very limited sample size (only three starts!). He has never won a postseason start. Game 2 of the LDS was particularly ugly as he allowed four runs and six hits in just 4 1/3 IP. He has never faced the Cubs in his career (he used to pitch for them). I have to think that the Cubs' potent lineup, which was second in the NL in runs scored during the regular season (trailing only Colorado, who is obviously aided by their home park) is set to break out of this slump they're in.

Overall, the Cubs are simply the much better team here. They finished the regular season w/ a remarkable +252 run differential, which was more than double all but two other teams. The pitcher friendly nature of Dodger Stadium should only amplify what is an outstanding defense. A big key in looking at this series vs. the last one is that the Dodgers strike out more than the Giants do. This park is also far smaller than AT&T and w/ the Cubs' defense being the best in the bigs, that's an edge for them. Arrieta seems to have regained lost form w/ his cutter and while he may not be as dominant here as Kershaw was Sunday, I fully expect him to lead the Cubs to victory. 10* Chi Cubs

9* Los Angeles (8:05 ET): The Kings have been shell-shocked to start the season as goaltender Jonathan Quick is out for an indefinite period of time w/ a serious groin injury. As a result, they've dropped their first two games, losing 2-1 at San Jose and then 4-2 at home to Philadelphia. One thing that the Kings have going for them is they play in the weakest division in the sport. All they need is a top three finish in the Pacific and they're a playoff team. So, if they can stay afloat w/o Quick, then I see them being just fine when he does return. As for tonight's game in Minnesota, I see them getting the two points as they're well rested and motivated.

The Wild lost their first game, 3-2 at St. Louis, but then bounced back w/ a 4-3 home win against Winnipeg. They dominated the number of shots (31-17) in that win, but such an advantage is often tough to come by when facing a Kings team that often dominates possession of the puck. Minnesota did take two of three from LA last season, but in every game the Kings had the decisive edge in shots on goal. In fact, they averaged nearly 33 shots per game! Somehow though, they managed only three goals on 98 shots against the combo of Darcy Keumper and Devan Dubnyk. Dubnyk has been the one between the pipes in both games so far this season and his .875 save percentage doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Allowing three goals when facing only 17 shots like he did vs. Winnipeg isn't a "good look."

The goaltending duties in LA now fall at the pads of Jeff Zatkoff. He was sharp in relief of Quick in the first game (stopped 15 of 16 shots), but then found himself under siege against Philadelphia where he faced 40 shots! That's a very high number for the Kings to allow. Look for them to be much better here. I'll point to the fact that Minnesota fell behind Winnipeg 2-0 its last time out after an uninspired performance in the opener. Two strong periods aren't enough for me to think they can beat the Kings, even w/o Quick. This is an outstanding price on the road team (plus money!) as they are 10-5 the L2 seasons when taking the ice w/ at least three days rest. 9* Los Angeles

10* NY Jets (8:25 ET): The Jets "fly" into Arizona a desperate team. They're 1-4 SU w/ three losses in a row coming by double digits. The schedule has been quite unforgiving thus far as they've had to play four playoff teams from a year ago and those four opponents account for the losses. The Jets themselves were probably the best team NOT to make the playoffs last year (finished 10-6), but already the playoffs are looking like a pipe dream here in 2016. Thankfully, Arizona also seems to be regressing this year. They did manage to beat the 49ers last time out (11 days ago!) w/o Carson Palmer (who returns tonight), but this team is still only 2-3 SU and has already dropped a pair of home games. While an outright win by the Jets would surprise me somewhat, I think this is simply too many points for a struggling Cardinals team to lay.

Last week, the Jets lost to the Steelers by a score of 31-13. But that game was closer than the final score indicates and New York actually led 13-7 late in the first half. The previous two games saw them doomed by turnovers, which essentially all falls on struggling QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. He threw six INT's in the 24-3 loss to the Chiefs and then the team was -3 in TO's in its 27-17 loss to Seattle. Strange as this may seem to write, I think this visit to Arizona actually represents a drop in class from the Jets' previous two opponents. Key is that HC Todd Bowles knows the Cardinals' system having previously served there as the DC. I expect him to bring a lot of pressure against an embattled Arizona offense line, which is likely to be w/o both Evan Mathis and Mike Iupati.

Palmer hasn't looked the same this year nor has the Arizona offense. Without their starting QB, the Cards did ring up 33 points against the Niners (which was good for me as I had the Over), but they did so despite only gaining 288 total yards! Note that 17 pts came off turnovers as those three scoring drives totaled only 41 yards! There was a safety as well. Turnovers had been an issue in the previous two games that Palmer has started as the team has TEN of them. I expect them to struggle w/ the Jets strength here, which is the defensive line. In what figures to be a relatively low scoring games, look for the road dog to stay within the number. Not only is Arizona 2-8 ATS its L10 appearances on Monday Night Football, they are 1-11 ATS L12 times they've been a home fave of 7.5 to 10 pts. Don't discount the look ahead factor to Seattle (next Sun night) either. 10* NY Jets

6* Toronto (8:05 ET): Cleveland is the hottest team in baseball right now. They're 5-0 in the playoffs and haven't dropped a game in October. Despite facing two of the best offenses in the sport (including #1 Boston), Indians pitching has now allowed just eight runs total in the postseason, including only one to the Blue Jays. The Tribe accounted for my only loss in these playoffs (Gm 3 at Boston), but I'll be going against them again here in a similar spot. Note that I have cashed Cleveland three times already in the postseason, Games 1 and 2 vs. Boston plus Game 1 of this ALCS. It's just that I believe their questionable depth in the starting rotation begins to catch up w/ them in a seven game series and their offensive numbers simply haven't been very good on the road all season long.

Toronto is obviously desperate here. Down 0-2 in the series, a loss tonight would basically mean the end of their season (the '04 Red Sox remain the only team to ever erase a 3-0 series deficit). Here, they'll be handing the ball to Marcus Stroman and I believe he'll lead them to victory. Stroman has not worked since the Wild Card Game where he gave up only two runs and four hits over 6 IP. He now has a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his L3 starts. Shockingly, despite a very respectable 3.35 ERA and 1.186 WHIP his L7 starts, Stroman has not won a decision since August 14th vs. Houston. His very next start was against Cleveland and he recorded a no-decision despite allowing just one run in 7 1/3 IP. In two starts this year vs. the Indians, Stroman allowed only two runs (in 14 IP) and had a 15-2 KW rate. As noted above, Cleveland's offense (which has only four runs and 10 hits this series) declines on the road where they ranked 27th in runs scored, 29th in team batting average and 28th in OPS. 

Meanwhile, I expect the Blue Jays' offense to improve here at home. They average 5.0 rpg here for the season. It will help facing Trevor Bauer, who had to receive stitches for a minor cut on his finger while fixing a drone. Bauer and the team insist that won't have an effect on his Game 3 outing, and maybe they're right, but I'll focus on the fact that Bauer turned in the weakest start to date of the Cleveland rotation this postseason. He allowed two home runs in a 4-3 win over Boston in Game 1 of the LDS and despite a 4.91 ERA his L3 outings, his TSR is still 3-0. That record is definitely due to regress, especially considering a 6.33 ERA and 1.359 WHIP his L7 outings. He's allowed at least 3 ER in all seven of those starts. 6* Toronto

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Avs may have treated me kindly Saturday night (6-5 win over Dallas in their season opener) and the Pens may be w/o Sidney Crosby, but I'm still solidly on the home team here. The defending Stanley Cup Champs have won their first two games - over Washington and Anaheim - by identical 3-2 margins, both here at home. They've allowed more shots on goal than you'd like to see (76!), but I'd look for that number to drop significantly tonight as Colorado is highly unlikely to match its offensive output from the Stars game. Pittsburgh took both head to head meetings last year, scoring four goals in each win.

The Crosby injury has obviously kept the money line within reason and I feel there's actually plenty of value here w/ the Pens. Even w/o Crosby, this remains a very talented team, top to bottom. Note that he wasn't on the ice for either win thus far and they still beat two playoff teams from a year ago. Colorado represents a drop in class in terms of quality of opponent. This team rang up 45 shots vs. Anaheim, a very impressive number to say the least. Marc-Andre Fleury, back in net due to the injury to Matt Murray, looked very good vs. the Ducks in making 36 saves. Bottom line is that this is one of the most talented teams in the sport.

Colorado, meanwhile, is a team in transition. They have a new HC - Jared Bednar - and he only took over on August 25th due to the surprising resignation of Patrick Roy. The six goals vs. Dallas was nice, but goaltending is usually an issue for the Stars. Giving up five goals like the Avs did there could be a sign of problems moving forward, especially when faced w/ a talented offensive foe such as this one. Ask around and almost everyone has the Avs finishing in last place in the Central Division. This is a game I just cannot see them winning. Calvin Pickard makes his season debut tonight. In 13 starts last year, his GAA was 2.56. With more usage on tap for 2016-17, I expect that number to go up. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Houston (8:25 ET): The AFC South is once again shaping up as the worst division in the sport. Leading the way currently is Houston at 3-2, but their offense has generally been very bad and they've been outscored by 22 points in those five games. However, I have little respect for an Indianapolis side that has given up 148 points through five games, tied for the worst average in the AFC (alongside the winless Browns). The Colts were outgained LW, 522-396 by Chicago, despite winning 29-23. That was the second time in three weeks they had to rally from a 4th quarter deficit to win. Those happen to be their only wins. I feel that GM Ryan Grigson has done an atrocious job w/ this roster as Andrew Luck is surrounded by a lot of garbage.

Even though they are w/o JJ Watt, the Texans defense is still allowing just 20.8 points per game. Here at home, that average drops down to 15.3 PPG. All three teams that have visited NRG Stadium this year have been held to 20 pts or fewer. Even in that embarrassing road loss to New England, the defense allowed only 282 total yards! Last week at Minnesota was the worst performance of the year in giving up 31 pts and 351 yards to an unbeaten team. This will be a far better matchup for Houston as the Indianapolis' offensive line is just putrid, having given up the most sacks in the league. As for the Texans offense, QB Brock Osweiler has really struggled so far. But I think he should lean on Lamar Miller here as the RB is top 10 in rush yardage. So it's only a matter of time before Miller gets into the end zone for the first time.

The history of this divisional rivalry has been all Colts w/ them holding a 23-5 SU all-time advantage. But Houston finally snapped a six-game SU and ATS slide w/ a 16-10 win and cover in the second meeting last year. Colts defenders will point to the absence of Andrew Luck in that game. But, as noted above, this is perhaps the worst supporting cast Luck has ever had. The Colts defense ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed (only Saints and Raiders are worse). Not only are they giving up 410.6 YPG, a Pagano era worst, they are allowing 29.6 PPG. I'm calling for Houston's best offensive performance to date and a cover. Lay the points. 8* Houston

10* Under Dodgers/Cubs (8:05 ET): Last night's Game 1 seemed well on its way to a win for Under bettors. That was until the 8th inning. Down 3-1, the Dodgers tied the game up in the top half of the frame. Then came the bottom half. Miguel Montero stepped to the plate as a pinch hitter and delivered a grand slam that won the game. Dexter Fowler even followed w/ a solo shot as insurance. The number of runs scored by LA last night was right in line w/ what the Cubs allowed per game here at Wrigley during the regular season. Therefore, it's the Cubs' bats that we have to "worry about." Fortunately, we'll have Clayton Kershaw on our side to help mitigate the damage. I'm calling for an Under here in Game 2.

Kershaw was quite active in the LDS vs. Washington. While neither stat line looks particularly impressive from his two starts, note that the second one (Game 4) saw three of the five runs he was charged w/ not actually given up by him. Yes, he did allow those runners to get on base, but it was reliever Baez that allowed them to come home. Kershaw fanned 11 Nationals in that start and then of course came back on just one day's rest to get the final two outs of the series. For the year, we're talking a 1.96 ERA and 0.784 WHIP here. That WHIP was the best in baseball during the regular season. Eight of his 10 road starts have stayed Under the total. In eight career starts against the Cubs, Kershaw has posted a 2.18 ERA and 1.043 WHIP. They have yet to face him herei n 2016.

While Kershaw may lead the league in WHIP, his counterpart Kyle Hendricks was #1 in ERA (2.13). Hendricks' WHIP was a not too shabby 0.981 as well. Here at the Friendly Confines is where Hendricks has typically done his best work. He has a 1.39 ERA (best home ERA in baseball) and 0.866 WHIP here. Nine of the 14 starts have stayed Under the total. As mentioned above, visitors average only 3.0 rpg here at Wrigley for this season. The Dodgers are batting just .219 as as team the L7 games and Hendricks has a 0.70 WHIP in three career starts against them. Earlier this year, in this park, he held them to only two runs and three hits in 8 IP. Don't look for any grand slams tonight; this one stays Under. 10* Under Dodgers/Cubs

10* NY Islanders (6:05 ET): It's been an ugly start to the season for both of these teams at 0-2. Neither has played a home game to this point. So, at least that's an edge to Isles, who had to go to MSG (Rangers) and then Washington to open the campaign. Meanwhile, Anaheim had to play at Dallas and Pittsburgh, so the schedule makers were similarly unkind. I'm simply going to lean on the home ice advantage in this one and the fact that the Isles swept the Ducks in LY's season series. Note that both teams are playing w/o rest here as well.

This is the first time in a decade that the Isles have opened pointless in their first two games. There was a bit of an exodus of talent here in the offseason, but I still believe this group to be a legit playoff contender in the East (may have to settle for a Wild Card again). Though Thomas Greiss played well and stopped 26 of 28 shots vs. the Caps, it will be Jaroslav Halak between the pipes here. He has a winning record (7-5) all-time when facing Anaheim. Note that over the past two seasons, New York is 23-17 when coming off a game where they scored 1 goal or less.

This is a brutal start to the season for the Ducks as their first five games are all on the road. After this, they play New Jersey and Philadelphia. Anaheim is a team set to decline this year, so I'm not stunned over them being winless in the first two games. They gave up a ton of shots last night to Pittsburgh (45), which is never a good sign. John Gibson, now the #1 in goal for the team, had a shaky first game this year as he allowed four goals on just 20 shots.  10* NY Islanders

8* Green Bay (4:25 ET): This looks like a good value on the favorite, which is something I don't often say in this league. But the lookahead line here was Packers -7. In addition to being a public team to begin with, Dallas is off to a somewhat surprising 4-1 SU start. Those two factors have colluded to drop this number somewhat significantly. I think this "Dak Prescott vs. Tony Romo" debate is nonsense and overlooks the simple fact that when the Cowboys win, it's typically because of the vaunted run game. Unfortunately though, America's Team will be going up against the league's toughest defense to run on here as the Pack are allowing just 43 rush yds per game! No opponent has gained more than 50 yards over land against them through four games! The longest run from scrimmage that they've allowed all year is 14 yards!  Lay the points here.

Green Bay probably deserved to win by a larger margin than 23-16 last week over the Giants. Here at Lambeau, they really took it to the G-Men, outgaining them 406-221. But they gave up a late, relatively meaningless TD in the final 2:30 of the fourth quarter to blow the cover. It was the only time they weren't covering since halfway through the second quarter. One also has to think the final score there would have been worse had Aaron Rodgers not uncharacteristically thrown two interceptions. You could also, pretty easily, make an argument that the Pack should have beaten the Lions by a wider margin than 34-27. That was game they led 31-3 in the first half. This would be their third straight home game, wrapped around a bye week. It's a good spot for Mike McCarthy's team.

Dallas is off a very impressive showing as they crushed Cincinnati at home, 28-14. It was their fourth consecutive win and cover after dropping the season opener (to the Giants) by a single point. Note their offense gained only 328 yds against the Giants' defense (Packers were at 406) while the defense gave up 315 yds (Pack allowed only 221). To me, with the home field advantage, Green Bay is a real bargain here. Dallas hasn't beaten many good teams during this run. Two of the four wins came against Chicago and San Francisco. It was a somewhat lucky win at Washington where they were three-point dogs. By comparison, this line looks like a real bargain considering the Packers are significantly better than the Redskins. The Cowboys have lost five in a row overall to the Pack and in their L4 visits to Lambeau, they've been outscored by an average of 18.5 PPG. Green Bay is 16-3 SU its L19 home games, including 8-0 as a fave in the -3.5 to -7 range where they're also 6-1-1 ATS.  8* Green Bay

10* Kansas City (4:05 ET): Handicapping this matchup is almost identical to last week's GOW selection, Buffalo over the Rams. As was the case last week, we have a team whose record does not properly reflect their true level of play. The idea of the Raiders being 5-1 SU is just as foreign to me as was the potential of a 4-1 SU start for the Rams. Consider that Oakland's four wins this season have come by 12 points - total -     and one of those (by seven) was at the expense of Tennessee. Twice they've won games by a single point. Last week, they benefited from more San Diego ineptitude as the Lightning Bolts screwed up the potential game-tying field goal. Given they are just 1-2 ATS as favorites so far, perhaps it should not be a shock to find there's been a change in favoritism for this matchup. But such was the case last week w/ the Bills and the Rams. Normally, I shy away from such moves, but there are exceptions and for a second straight week we have one.

The proverbial "cherry on top" here is that we are getting Andy Reid off a bye. Perhaps there is no situation in his long NFL coaching career where he has been more profitable. Reid is 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS his L17 times coming off the bye week. Here, his Chiefs have had two weeks to "stew" over an embarrassing defeat that took place on a Sunday night, 43-14, at the hands of the Steelers. I anticipate we'll see a much different team here. Save for the 4th quarter against San Diego in the opener, we haven't seen much from Alex Smith and the rest of the offense this season. But I'll call for a breakout performance here against one of the league's weakest defenses. Oakland ranks 25th in points (27.4) and are last (32nd) in yards (452.6) per game. They are actually allowing roughly 30 YPG more than the next worst team. The Chiefs look to be getting RB Jamaal Charles back for this critical AFC West matchup.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are going to be w/o their starting RB - Latavius Murray - for a second straight game. Also missing will be pair of right tackles, Vadal Alexander and Menelik Watson. Rain is expected for this game and that may limit what Oakland can do offensively. Again, this is a team that has been very lucky to pull out wins over New Orleans (2-pt conversion), Baltimore (-151 in total yds, -12 in first downs) and San Diego (botched FG). Despite the 4-1 SU record, the Raiders are actually -61 in YPG differential and only +5 in point differential. KC is 4-2 SU/ATS as a road fave of three points or less the L2 seasons. 10* Kansas City

10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): If you're like me and view teams like stocks, then this is a supremely "buy low" situation on the Bengals. Marvin Lewis' team really got hammered last week, losing 28-14 in Dallas, a game they actually closed as a 2.5-pt favorite. The loss dropped them to 2-3 straight up and now the market has predictably moved against them for this trip to Foxboro. Of course, that's also due to the performance we saw LW from Tom Brady in his much publicized return from a four-game suspension. He completed 28 of his 40 pass attempts for 400+ yards and three touchdowns. But that came at the expense of the winless Browns. Safe to say, we won't find a bigger spread for Cincinnati all season. Take the points.

The Bengals have made the playoffs each of the last five seasons. Their Wild Card flameouts in each of those five years are well known. To make it back for a sixth straight year and gain that elusive first postseason victory under HC Lewis will now take some work. But it should be noted that they have taken on quite the challenging schedule thus far. Their three losses have come against Pittsburgh, Denver and Dallas, who are a collective 12-4 SU. They were favored against two of those teams and were only getting three points in Pittsburgh (lost by eight). I have the Steelers rated a bit better than the Patriots for the record. I understand why the line is this high, but it's a classic overadjustment. This will be just the FIFTH time since the start of the 2011 season that Cincy is getting seven points or more at the betting window. The last time was 2014 and they went to New Orleans and won outright, 27-10.

Again, I'm not going to go tout the Patriots too much for what they did last week. They were facing a Cleveland team that was already the worst in the league, down numerous players, and during the course of the game the Browns lost TWO QB's to injury!  The lookahead line for this game (posted in the preseason) had New England laying only four points. So again, there's been a seismic shift in public perception on the Bengals. Andy Dalton, for the record, is 22-10 ATS all-time as a dog. It's not as if the Bengals are playing that poorly. They are 10th in yards per game on offense and 11th in yards allowed on defense.  New England is among the most public of plays this week and I'll fade them. 10* Cincinnati

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): It was a near unprecedented comedy of errors for the Browns LW vs. New England. They were obviously big underdogs coming into the game, but making matters worse was that Tom Brady looked like he was in "mid-season form" (400+ yds) in his first start of 2016. Then, to add injury to insult, the Browns lost not one (Cody Kessler), but two (Charlie Whitehurst) quarterbacks of their own. Kessler will start for a fourth straight time this week. Save for the debacle hosting the Patriots, Cleveland has generally been a competitive team despite their winless record.They led Baltimore 20-0 in Week 2 (lost 25-20 w/ an INT thrown at the goal line on the final play). They took Miami to overtime (I had them +10 there). Washington, they led going into the fourth quarter as well. I'm taking the points here against a team unaccustomed to laying them.

The favorite here is Tennessee and this price range is certainly uncharted waters in the Mike Mularkey era. While I concede it might be a tad bit difficult to make a case for the Browns, this is more of a play AGAINST the Titans anyway. I have stumped for the Titans previously, but that's only when taking points. Last week, as a small road dog, they smashed Miami 30-17 w/ a 2:1 edge in total yards. It was arguably the best performance by this football team in many years. I had them in their only other win this year, which was 17-16 over Detroit as six-point dogs. Since the start of the 2014 season, the Titans are an incredibly awful 11-26 ATS overall. Not only will this be the first time they are favored in 2016, it is just the fifth time they are favored in the L38 games! They are just 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS the previous four occasions w/ both SU wins coming over the Jaguars by a combined five points! This will be just the second time since 2011 that they are being asked to lay seven points to an opponent! 

It's rare to find a team playing w/ revenge against the Browns, but the Titans have a double dose of it here, believe it or not. Because of the respective "last place schedules," these teams have met each of the past two seasons. Cleveland has won both games w/ the line as pick 'em each time. So, that actually makes Tennessee 1-5 ATS as a dog or pick the L3 seasons. Now do I expect the Titans to win this game? Yes. But Cleveland has generally been competitive thus far and this is their weakest opponent to date. A total overlay here w/ a bad team being favored by too many points. 8* Cleveland

10* Miami (1:00 ET): Things are going South rather quickly for Miami in year one under Adam Gase. The team's lone win came against Cleveland and required overtime. They did not cover that game (were 10-pt favorites and I went against them), nor did they in bad losses to Cincinnati (22-7) and Tennessee (30-17) the L2 weeks. Particularly embarrassing is how they were pretty much dominated here at home vs. the Titans last Sunday. They were outgained basically 2:1 by a fellow one-win team. Really, one would have to go all the way back to Week 1 to find Miami's "best" performance, that being a 12-10 loss at Seattle, a game they probably should have won SU as 10.5 pt dogs. Remember, they were down big at the half against New England. This all being said, I'm going to advocate taking the points here, as it's a lot of them w/ a desperate side.

While Miami is 1-4 SU/ATS, Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU/ATS. Their lone loss was that headscratcher, on the road, to Philadelphia 34-3. Three of the four wins have come by double digits, including last week's over the Jets, 31-13. But note that they actually trailed in the 1H of that game (13-7) before scoring a TD in the final minute before halftime. (The second half was "all them.") I think most people will view this as an "easy win" for Pittsburgh, but a few things are working against them. One is WR Sammie Coates has a fractured finger. Two, they are officially the most public side of the week (as of Saturday). Under Mike Tomlin, the Black and Gold are just 3-10 ATS as road faves of 7 pts or more. In the final week of last season, they snapped a nine-game ATS skid (four outright losses!) in the role w/ a win over the hapless Browns.

This is also a lookahead for Pittsburgh as they host New England next week. Meanwhile, there's no such thing as a lookahead for a 1-4 SU team. This is the second of what will be four consecutive home games for Miami. Typically, they haven't been very strong at home off a home loss, but this is a new regime. The offense has been quite disappointing, QB Ryan Tannehill in particular, but note this will be the first time all season that the team's top two offensive lineman (Branden Albert & Mike Pouncey) will play together. Pittsburgh's defense is only 25th in yards per game allowed and was bailed out somewhat LW by the Jets going 2 for 12 on third and fourth down. That unit will be w/o Cam Heyward here as the DE is missing a game for the 1st time in his career. 10* Miami

8* UCLA (10:30 ET): These two Pac 12 rivals come off very different results last week. UCLA, despite a 444-275 edge in total yards, lost 23-20 (as seven-point favorites) at Arizona State. Even worse, Jim Mora may have lost superstar QB Josh Rosen. The sophomore is listed as questionable for this game, but regardless I like the Bruins in this spot as they're more than capable of pulling the upset with or without Rosen. This is a big revenge game for them as LY they lost to Washington State, 31-27 (nine-point favorites) at the Rose Bowl. Wazzu has won three in a row, by a combined score of 149-55, after a shockingly dominant upset of Stanford LW (42-16 as seven-point pups). But they are somewhat unaccustomed to this level of favoritism in Pac 12 play under HC Mike Price. Take the points.

UCLA's 3-3 SU record shocks me. This is a team I had doing quite well this year. They were my pick to win the Pac 12 South. All three losses have been particularly brutal. They dropped the opener to Texas A&M in overtime and we all know about the debacle vs. Stanford, which by season's end will most certainly be the "worst beat" of the year in College Football. Last week, however, may have been a new low as they rushed for -1 yard (445 yds passing). The defense played well at least, holding ASU to just 275 total yards. I know things look dire now due to Rosen's status, but to me this is an outstanding "buy low" opportunity. A 1-9 ATS record over the L10 games can only improve. I already mentioned the revenge angle that is in play here. They actually outgained Wazzu 554-426 in LY's 31-27 loss, which was decided on a TD pass w/ three seconds remaining.

Suffice to say, the L2 weeks have arguably been the finest B2B games during Price's five year tenure here in Pullman. They have destroyed the two perennial Pac 12 North powers, Oregon and Stanford, putting over 1,000 yards of total offense on the board (93 points scored!). But this will be a better and hungrier defense they are facing here. It is definitely worth noting that Oregon and Stanford are definitely in the midst of down years. The Cougars did go 3-0 ATS as Pac 12 favorites as year ago, but those games were against Oregon State, Arizona State and Colorado. Colorado, who up until this year had been very bad in conference play, is the only team that Wazzu has previously been asked to lay a TD or more to in Pac 12 play under Price! 8* UCLA

10* Colorado (9:05 ET): The Avalanche are one of the few teams in the league yet to have played a game. Thus, I'll grab them in tonight's season opener as they draw a Dallas that is likely to regress in 2016. Granted, we saw the Stars win their first game, 4-2 over Anaheim. But that was on home ice. The Avs are 7-2 in head to head meeting the L3 years and that includes splitting last year's four when Dallas was clearly the better team. Overall, the Avs are 28-18-4 all-time hosting the Stars. Given the rest, I give a sizable edge to the home team in this one.

FWIW, Colorado did go 6-0 in the preseason. Perhaps a sign of things to come? There was an abrupt coaching change back in August as Patrick Roy surprisingly stepped down, paving the way for Jared Bednar to behind the bench. Bednar has won titles in both the AHL and ECHL, so he should have the players' respect. I know that most are projecting the Avs to miss the playoffs for a sixth time in seven seasons and they are the team most likely to finish in last in the always tough Central Division. But look for an inspired effort tonight in the home opener. Truth be told, Roy's style and strategy was outdated, so I like the change. Nathan MacKinnon looked great in the World Cup. I think Semyon Varlamov will be better in goal w/ better puck possession numbers by the team.

Dallas did win its opener, but they were outshot badly, 35-20. Antii Niemi stepped up huge between the pipes, but it's difficult to disregard his poor performance last postseason where he turned in a well below average 3.29 GAA. It was nice that the Stars led the league in goals scored last season, but they were also a very pedestrian 20th in goals allowed. Like I said earlier, regression is in the cards for this season as they jumped from 92 points in 2014-15 to 109 last year. They should finish somewhere in between this year. The fact they were outshot so badly in the opener does not bode well and I can't see Niemi repeating that performance from Thursday. 10* Colorado

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Already heavily favored, the NLCS clearly lines up well for the Cubs. It wasn't easy, but they dispatched of the Giants on Tuesday while the Dodgers had to go to a deciding fifth game in D.C. vs. the Nats. Not only that, but to win this series clinching game, LA had to call Clayton Kershaw into "emergency" duty, meaning he may not even pitch again until Game 3. Though I was on them and they did come through, the Dodgers are not a particularly good road team. Their record outside of Dodger Stadium remains below .500. Of particular concern here is that five of the seven regular season meetings vs. the Cubs saw the offense get held to three runs or fewer. It would be a stunner to me if the Cubs, clearly the best team in baseball, lost this game.

The Cubs have their rotation all lined up for this series and that means Jon Lester will go tonight in Game 1. I played him, successfully I might add, in the opener of the series w/ the Giants. While not easy, Lester certainly did his job in the 1-0 victory. He held San Francisco to just five hits in 8 IP, improving his TSR here at Wrigley to 14-2. He has a filthy 1.62 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in those 16 outings. As I'll run though later; it would appear as if the Cubs have a massive edge in starting pitching in tonight's matchup. Not that they need it; this team lapped the field in terms of run differential during the regular season (+252!) and they are 59-24 in all games played at the Friendly Confines this year. They are also 61-31 in night games. 

Meanwhile, Dodgers Game 1 starter Kenta Maeda is hardly in top form right now. He comes in w/ an unsightly 11.17 ERA and 2.275 WHIP his L3 starts, all team losses. Note that in his last two starts, which have spanned just 5 2/3 innings, Maeda has allowed the same number of runs that Lester has in his last TEN starts combined. Yes, take away one bad start at the end of the regular season and Lester has now allowed 1 or 0 ER in 9 of his L10 starts overall. Visiting teams score fewer runs per game at Wrigley than any other venue in the game. That's certainly not a good thing for a Dodgers' offense that comes in batting only .197 over its last seven games. Also, LA has been just awful this year against lefties (Lester is a southpaw) w/ a .213/.290/.332 regular-season slash line. Game 1 and likely the entire series for that matter, shape up as complete mismatch. 6* Chi Cubs

10* Arizona State (8:00 ET): Early in the week, we saw a sizable shift in the line for this Pac 12 matchup. Colorado, who is the only perfect ATS team (6-0!) left in the entire country, quickly moved from a single digit fave to almost a two-touchdown choice. Maybe that's because the Buffs are still perfect at the betting window, or maybe it has something to do w/ Arizona State's uncertain situation at QB. Regardless of the reason, there is now plenty of value on the Sun Devils as DD underdogs in this situation. For the record, HC Todd Graham has stated that he expects starter Manny Wilkins to play here. If for some reason he doesn't, or even sees limited time, that's okay because ASU was still able to upset UCLA last week w/o him. His backup Brady White did a season-ending foot injury in that upset, but freshman Dillon Sterling-Cole is waiting in the wings if need be. I simply feel this is a massive overlay. Take the points.

Colorado was actually a large favorite against Oregon State (-17) two weeks ago and destroyed the Beavers by a score of 47-6. That number was pretty much unprecedented territory for the Buffs under HC Mike MacIntyre, who is doing a great job here in Boulder. But last week, they should have probably lost by a larger margin to USC. I say that not as a bitter bettor that had the Trojans -4.5 (final score was 21-17), but as someone looking at the total yardage battle (539-371). Four USC turnovers absolutely kept CU in that game. Also, it should be pointed out they kicked a late FG to get within the number. USC then drove the ball inside the Colorado 5-yd line on the final drive, but kneeled to end the game. 

ASU was also on the wrong end of the total yardage count in their 23-20 win over UCLA late last Saturday. But they actually never trailed in the game despite starting a backup QB. It should be pointed out that the Sun Devils have beaten the Buffaloes seven straight times by an average of 26 points per game. All seven games have been won by at least a two touchdown margin. In retrospect, I can see why CU was favored by so many points against an Oregon State team that was so far behind the rest of the Pac 12 pack LY. But this number is a bit absurd. ASU has a huge special teams edge thanks to the NCAA's all-time scoring leader, kicker Zane Gonzalez. The Sun Devils have lost just one time this year (at USC) and are 2-0 SU and ATS the L3 seasons as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 pts. 10* Arizona State

8* Over Southern Miss/LSU (7:30 ET): Along w/ conference mate South Carolina, LSU is one of just two teams in the nation that has yet to go Over in a single game this season. (Note: The Gamecocks pushed on LW's total vs. Georgia). Similar to how I'm calling for New Mexico's 1st Under elsewhere in this Trifecta, I'm thinking the Bayou Bengals will see their first Over here. Going back to LY, this team has actually now stayed Under the total in the L9 reg season contests. (Of course, that was preceded by a six-game Over streak). But so much of that was due to the antiquated offense the disposed Les Miles was running. New HC Ed Orgeron certainly seemed to have the offense in "high gear" in his debut two weeks ago, a 42-7 win over Missouri. Last week's game vs. Florida was postponed. Here, they go from facing some of the great defenses of the SEC to a Southern Miss squad that just gave up 55 pts LW to UTSA!

Brett Favre's alma mater was one of the great stories last year in College Football. The Golden Eagles broke out for a nine-win season in Todd Monken's third year in Hattiesburg. That's quite the turnaound from the one-win season his first year here. Unfortunately, Monken then departed for the NFL (OC of Bucs). Former Alcorn State (FCS) HC Jay Hopson is now at the helm and while the team is 4-2 SU, that's actually a little disappointing given the schedule. They did upset a SEC team (Kentucky) on the road in the season opener (44-35 as three-point dogs), but they've since dropped two games as a favorite of -9.5 or more. One was at home to Troy (37-31, -9.5), the other last week at UTSA, as a 17.5-pt choice, 55-32. The one positive takeaway from that game, particularly for our purposes here, is that the offense gained 557 total yards. Unlike LSU, most Southern Miss games have been quite high scoring. All but one have seen at least 56 total pts scored. Last week's 32 points (three turnovers) was actually a season low on offense. Their games are averaging 67.2 PPG overall so far.

By the way, LSU rolled up an incredible 634 total yards against Missouri! Granted, it appears as if RB Leonard Fournette will not play this week. But his absence wasn't felt when the Tigers rolled up 216 yds rushing against Missouri. Derrius Guice went for 163 yds (on just 17 carries) and three touchdowns, filling in quite nicely. He should have no problem gashing a USM defense which just allowed a frightening 339 yards rushing, at 9.7 yards per pop, to UTSA. 8* Over Southern Miss/LSU

10* Rice (7:00 ET): What a disaster this season has been thus far for Rice. The Owls, who were projected to improve this year, are instead one of only two teams in the entire country (Miami OH is the other) currently w/o a SU victory to their credit. To be fair though, they have been a dog in every game but one. Here, David Baliff's team is off a bye and I think a tremendous value taking points against a UTSA team ripe for a letdown after pulling off a shocking 55-32 upset of Southern Miss (as 17-pt underdogs) last week. This is also a big revenge game for Rice as LY's 34-24 loss (as three-point road dogs) cost them a shot a bowl eligibility. Here at Rice Stadium, the Owls are a strong 23-10 SU in C-USA home games over the last eight seasons. Take the points.

Last year, a lot of things went wrong for Rice. For instance, they were -12 in turnover margin. They are -3 so far in 2016 and that's after finishing +3 in their last game (against Southern Miss) where they still lost 44-28 as they allowed 700+ yards. That all sounds very bad, but again, being at home and off the bye is pretty huge here. The team should clearly be motivated to get that first win. Their last home game was a tough 42-35 loss to North Texas in double overtime. On the final play there, they were stuffed on a 4th and 1. The offense did gain an impressive 491 yards in that game. Rice is 3-1 SU all-time vs. UTSA w/ the lone loss coming LY, but the Owls led that game in the first half. Again, considering they were three-point dogs on the road LY, they look like a great value at home this year. I've already cashed this team once in 2016, when they were catching a huge number here at home vs. Baylor.

UTSA beating Southern Miss LW was a real shocker. It was the Roadrunners' first win over a FBS foe this season. I've also cashed in on them previously, not vs. Southern Miss, but rather in a Friday night home game vs. Arizona State. But it should be pointed out that they followed up that performance, their best of the season prior to LW, by losing at 33-19 at Old Dominion the following week. In two road games, UTSA has scored a grand total of 33 points. The defense still surrendered 557 yards to Southern Miss LW, so I'll calll for Rice's best offensive performance to date as they likely win this game straight up. Somewhat surprisingly, UTSA was actually favored on the road three times last year, but they failed to cover twice and lost one of the games (at North Texas) outright. They have just three road wins total the L3 seasons! 10* Rice

8* Under New Mexico/Air Force (3:30 ET): At this stage of the season, there are only two teams in the entire country that have gone Over in every game. One is Louisville, which given their own 58.0 PPG scoring average, should not be a surprise. The other is New Mexico. In the case of the Lobos, it is a little more difficult to pinpoint why the Over has ended up being so profitable. Against FCS South Dakota, the big play was the key. They had six touchdowns of 40+ yards there. But that's an overmatched opponent. The following week, on the road, they gained only 336 total yards at New Mexico State. Another road game brought another loss the following week, at Rutgers, which in retrospect looks a lot worse now. Mountain West play began w/ a 48-41 in Albuquerque over San Jose State w/ the defense contributing a touchdown. Last week, hosting Boise State, did not go well. They gave up 42 pts in the 1H and two of their own three TD's came in garbage time.

Air Force comes into this game off its first loss of the season. They were 13-point favorites, but fell at Wyoming, 35-26. Four turnovers really hurt the Flyboys there. One, a fumble, was directly returned for a touchdown. It should be noted that it was a 7-0 game at the end of the first quarter. One thing I can say is that the AFA's final point totals have been very consistent the L3 games. They scored 27 and 28 in wins over Utah State and Navy. An issue is that the Falcons' rush offense is not as strong as previous years (just 44th in efficiency) Last week was a season high in points allowed as previously the defense had not allowed more than 21 in any game. So both defenses are off season highs in points allowed.

There are two keys in handicapping this game. One is that it is at a neutral site, the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Both offenses see their PPG total dip pretty significantly off-campus. UNM is averaging 6.0 PPG less below their overall season average on the road. Air Force is 6.7 PPG less. Interesting is that over the L3 games, there's been an average of just 16.7 PPG scored in the 1st Half of AFA games. The other key here is that both defenses should be well versed at defending the triple option because both see it in practice every day. The New Mexico defense is much better against the run (70th) than the pass (115th). Last week, they allowed 391 yards passing against Boise State, but only 65 yards rushing (on 29 carries). The same holds true for the AFA defense. Before allowing 189 yds rushing LW, they had allowed an average of just 1.7 YPC and that includes holding Navy to 57 yards on 38 carries. New Mexico has passed for only 84 yards TOTAL the last two games. With both teams running the ball almost exclusively here, I look for a "quick game" that ends up lower scoring than expected. 8* Under New Mexico/Air Force

8* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Many times, you'll see that the favorite is the one undervalued in a battle of top ranked teams, but that is most certainly not the case Saturday afternoon here in Knoxville. Yes, Tennessee lost for the first time in 2016 last week (take a drink every time Verne Lundqvist or Gary Danielson says "pixie dust!"). But, on the road, they actually outgained Texas A&M 684-592. Seven turnovers, the final one coming on the deciding play in double OT, are what ultimately doomed them in College Station. I really like their chances at keeping this one close, however, as it's the second of B2B road games for Alabama. The Tide gave up a lot of yards LW at Arkansas. Honestly, an outright win by the Vols seems more likely here than a blowout loss. Take the points.

The big story here is of course the fact UT has lost nine straight times to Alabama (by an average of 21 PPG). But this is clearly Butch Jones' best team yet. Yes, there have been a lot of close wins thus far ("pixie dust!") and they were outgained by Va Tech in Bristol. But close wins are long overdue in Knoxville as LY all four of the team's losses came by seven points or less. One of them was to 'Bama, 19-14 (as 15-pt dogs) in Tuscaloosa. The Vols were off a bye in that game (while the Tide were playing an eighth straight week) and they led 14-13 w/ five minutes to go before giving up the GW drive. While not off a bye this year, I do believe the situation still favors the Vols as Bama is playing on the road for a second straight week. Also, what a value on them as a home dog considering what the line was last year!

In two SEC road games thus far, Alabama's defense has been very shaky. They've allowed an average of 36.5 points and 500 yards per game to Ole Miss and Arkansas. That's really troubling, especially considering this could perhaps be the best offense they will face all season. Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs has been outstanding this year. I think the running game might be better w/ Alvin Kamara in the backfield and Jalen Hurd should be back for this game. The Vols defense could me in much better shape if LB Darrin Kirkland, Jr (gametime decision) is back. Getting back to Alabama's defense, they allowed 400 yards passing and 25 first downs last week to a Brett Bielema team! Yes, they still won by 19, but that was w/ the defense scoring twice, something that simply cannot be counted upon on a weekly basis. One of those defensive TD's was a 100-yd INT return which really swung the game. So far, the Tide have scored NINE non-offensive touchdowns, which sure seems like an unsustainable way to put points on the road. I look for this game to be decided by less than one score. 8* Tennessee

8* Over Eastern Michigan/Ohio (2:00 ET): It appears to me that some "sharp money" has come in on the dog in this one. For Eastern Michigan to cover, let alone win, they'll likely have to continue their somewhat remarkable defensive improvement. Through six games, the Eagles are giving up an average of "just" 29.7 points per game and while that might not sound all too impressive, consider it includes them allowing 61 to Missouri. Also, each of the last three years, EMU has allowed an average of over 40 PPG. So there has been rapid improvement in year #3 in Ypsilanti under Chris Creighton. I, myself, got down on the Eagles LW as they stayed within the number against Toledo, losing only 35-20 as sizable (20.5-point) underdogs. That all being said, I wouldn't be shocked to see the defense struggle this week in a rare visit to Peden Stadium in Athens.

Ohio did not cover last week as they were laying double digits to an admittedly terrible Bowling Green squad. That being said, they still scored 30 points, a benchmark they have now hit in all three home games this year. Frank Solich's Bobcats opened the season by losing a heartbreaker here, 56-54 to Texas State in triple overtime, a game where the offense gained 630 yards (defense allowed 546). Since that loss, every OU game has stayed Under the total. However, save for a 17-7 win over hapless rival Miami, most of those games have fallen just short of the respective O/U lines. The L2 home games have seen 58 and 54 total pts scored. Yes, I'm aware that forced turnovers led to 17 pts vs. BGSU, but the Bobcats offense was remarkably efficient in that game. They ran 37 times for 183 yds and QB Greg Windham completed 21 of 29 pass attempts.

Both teams come in averaging exactly the same number of points per game at 32.3. Hitting that season average would lead to an Over here. EMU, like Ohio, is on an Under streak (four straight games). But, similarly, most of those games have been ending up w/ 50+ total pts. This O/U line has dropped during the week, creating more value. For all the "defensive improvement" that I mentioned earlier, the Eagles have allowed over 450 yds in B2B games. For the season, that number is just about 400 YPG. The Over is 14-3 in EMU's L17 games following a DD loss at home. The last two times these teams met ('12 and '13), Ohio went over 500 yds both times and averaged over 50 PPG themselves. 8* Over Eastern Michigan/Ohio

10* Mississippi State (10:15 ET): This line "jumped off" the proverbial board for me. Note that over the summer, the Golden Nugget had this game listed as a "Pick Em." The "look ahead" line, posted last week at BetOnline, had BYU as a four-point favorite. That adjustment was somewhat reasonable as MSU has somewhat failed to live up to expectations this year, particularly in an embarrassing 21-20 home loss to South Alabama (were -28!) in the season opener. But w/ them losing LW in Starkville to Auburn, 38-14, and BYU going to Michigan State and winning outright (31-14 as 3.5-pt pups), the spread for this game has now taken on "a life of its own." BYU might be 5-1 ATS thus far, but w/ all of their games - save for LW - decided by a field goal or less, fading them is the way to go here. Take the points.

Mississippi State is just 2-3 SU, but two of those three losses have come by a total of four points. They missed the potential GW field goal vs. South Alabama and then they played LSU tough in Death Valley (lost 23-20) on September 17th. They've beaten both South Carolina and UMass, gaining nearly 500 and 600 total yards in the process, so even though Dak Prescott's absence is being felt, the offense can still move the ball. Last week was a disaster as they trailed 35-0 at the half, but Auburn seems to be a team on the rise. The team that BYU beat last week, Michigan State, is a team in decline. What makes MSU's loss last week such a disappointment is that they were coming off a bye. Meanwhile, this is BYU's seventh consecutive w/o a bye and they'll be on a short week next week when they visit Boise State for a Thursday game.

It has absolutely been a daunting schedule thus far for BYU w/ games against Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Toledo and Michigan State. Last week's result certainly caught a lot of people by surprise, but Michigan State simply is not that good this year. This is only the third time BYU has been favored and the first time by more than a field goal this year. They were lucky to escape Arizona w/ a two-point victory (were -1) in the opener, then again needed a last second field goal to escape Toledo (55-53 as three-point chalk). Covers against Utah (forced six turnovers) and UCLA (trailed 17-0) should both be considered pretty fortunate. In that Toledo game, the defense gave up nearly 700 total yards. The points are very attractive here. 10* Mississippi State

10* Under Oilers/Flames (9:05 ET): This is the second leg of a home and home to open the season for these long-standing provincial rivals. Edmonton drew first blood on Opening Night, winning 7-4. That score obviously sets a high bar for the rematch and I'm going to go Under the total this time. Needless to say, I can't see the Oilers being able to score seven times on just 28 shot attempts again. Nor do I see the Flames getting off 41 shots like they did Tuesday. While more often than not, we've seen the Over cash in meetings between these two, I believe it will be a different story here. Edmonton got six power play opportunities Tuesday night, which is a lot. But the Under is on a 7-3 run when they are off a win. Take the Under here.

So much for goaltender Brian Elliott being a difference maker in Calgary, huh? Coming over from St. Louis, Elliott was expected to shore things up between the pipes for the Flames this year. "It was kind of one of those nights where everything that could go wrong, did go wrong," Elliott said. "That's not the way you want to start the season." Needless to say, I expect a bounce back performance from him tonight. Goaltending was the primary issue for this club last year as they ranked 25th in goals allowed and dead last in even strength save percentage. Elliott happened to rank 4th in the league in save percentage (.930), so that looked like a smart acquisition on paper. Here on home ice, the defense in front of him should be better.

Edmonton isn't a team known for offense, so Opening Night certainly turned a lot of head. Connor McDavid scored two goals, one on a penalty shot. I think it's safe to assume the Oilers won't be getting an opportunity like that again. Their own goaltending wasn't very good Tuesday as Cam Talbot allowed four goals, but like I said earlier, he probably isn't going to face 41 shots again. Basically, I just look at the kind of game that played out Tuesday and don't think for a second there's a chance of seeing a repeat. Look for a far lower scoring rematch. 10* Under Oilers/Flames

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Despite not having homefield advantage, Toronto is the favorite to win the series. But it is Cleveland that is favored to take Game 1, due in large part to the fact they'll be sending Corey Kluber to the mound. Neither of these clubs have lost a game here in October as both swept their respective LDS. I'm not necessarily shocked that either advanced, but doing so in such dominant fashion was a bit eye-opening. I view this first game of the series as a "must-win" for Cleveland as they'll probably need to win all of Kluber's starts in this series to have a chance to pull what would be a fairly "minor" upset. They did win the season series from Toronto, 4-3. Some will want to focus in on the fact the Jays actually outscored the Tribe in those seven games, but that's owed in large part to one 17-1 victory where Cleveland was short-handed following a 19-inning marathon game the day before.

Kluber was absolutely dominant in his LDS start vs. Boston, throwing seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. In handicapping this series, one must take into account that the Red Sox were a stronger offensive team (#1 in MLB in runs scored) than the Blue Jays all year long. Cleveland pitching held Boston to just seven runs in the three games, which was remarkable. Defensively, the Indians' infield hardly let anything get through. I'd make a case that Cleveland is the top defensive team in the American League. That makes Kluber's job all the more easy, not that he needs the help. The 2014 Cy Young winner comes in w/ a 19-9 record in 33 starts (21-12 TSR) and a 1.054 WHIP. He's allowed more than 3 ER only twice since the All-Star Break. Here at home, the team has won 12 of his 17 starts this year. 

Cleveland not only loves playing at home (where they are 55-28), but also on Fridays (22-5 this season!). I'd be a little concerned over Toronto's poor 1-7 record this season as a ML dog of +125 to +150 (12-32 in that price range L3 seasons). Cleveland is 83-47 when favored on the ML this year. They face Marco Estrada here. While his recent numbers are quite impressive (0.787 WHIP L3 starts), he's a bit more of a flyball pitcher and that will not serve him well here at hitter-friendly Progressive Field. Remember what I said in my analysis of Games 1 & 2 of the Boston series. Cleveland was the third highest scoring team at home during the regular season (5.6 rpg), trailing only Colorado and Boston. Another advantage they will enjoy here is the bullpen. Toronto blew a lot of games in the ninth inning during the regular season and no longer have the services of Joaquin Benoit. 8* Cleveland

8* Tulane (8:00 ET): The Green Wave of Tulane have lost just two games in this first season under HC Willie Fritz. Both were close as they lost the season opener at improved Wake Forest (7-3!) and then a home game to Navy (who just upset Houston), 21-14, after leading entering the 4Q. Since that loss to Navy, they've come back to win a pair of close games. The first came here in New Orleans, 41-39 over LA Lafayette. That was a bit of a fortunate decision considering they were outgained and benefited from four Ragin Cajun turnovers. Thus, I was impressed that they were able to avoid any kind of letdown traveling out to UMass on October 1st where they prevailed 31-24. They really controlled the game in the second half there. Last week's scheduled game at UCF was cancelled, so I think that gives Fritz a bit of an edge here, hosting Memphis. Take the points.

Memphis is 4-1 SU, their lone loss coming at Ole Miss. Some might take a look at LW's 34-27 win, but non-cover, against Temple as a "bad beat." But note the Tigers were pretty fortunate to even win that one as they were outgained 531-323! They trailed early, 13-0, before kicking a field goal w/ no time remaining in the first half. From there, they scored the game's next 21 points and took a two touchdown lead after a kickoff return midway through the fourth quarter. But Temple was able to find the end zone late to "steal" the cover as 9.5-pt pups. But again, "steal" is a misleading word considering Memphis scored a pair of non-offensive TD's in the game. A +2 edge in turnovers, plus the special teams TD, was enough to negate a pretty severe 27-15 deficit in first downs compared to the Owls.

All of Memphis wins this season have come at home and the first three were all against terrible competition. Being +10 in TO's vs. Kansas and Bowling Green certainly helped as well! Meanwhile, Tulane has a strong defense (not a surprise) that has allowed more than 24 pts only one time all season. The Green Wave offense has let them down in both SU losses, but they should be able to move the ball here against a defense which has permitted over 1,100 yards the L2 games. The week off should be another advantage, like I mentioned earlier. Memphis has won nine straight over Tulane, but LY at the Liberty Bowl did see the Green Wave jump out to a 13-0 lead w/ a 100+ yd edge in total yards. I can absolutely see the home dog taking this game outright! 8* Tulane

10* San Diego (8:25 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I had strong opinions on both of these teams season win totals. As of right now, my respective opinions aren't looking so good. I was very high on San Diego finishing Over 7.0 wins as I deemed it reasonable to assume the team's fortune in terms of injuries and luck in close games would take a turn for the better. Sadly, they've managed to somehow get even worse in both departments. Denver, meanwhile, is a team I bet to finish Under 9.5 wins. They jumped out to a 4-0 SU start on the back of a defense that remains very strong. However, last week we saw the Broncos lose for the 1st time as Atlanta came to their house and pulled off a 23-16 upset as 3.5-pt underdogs. Now, the defending Super Bowl champs have to hit the road, on a short week, w/o their head coach and possibly w/o their starting QB. I'm not ready to rip up that Chargers bet quite yet. They have lost six in a row to the Broncos and 10 straight AFC West games overall. But I see both streaks likely coming to an end here. Take the points.

While they've lost 10 straight division games straight up, the Lightning Bolts have actually covered the number in each of the last five. That reflects the kind of fortune they've experienced in close games the L2 seasons. In Week 1, they led the Chiefs (on the road) 27-10 entering the fourth quarter. They ended up losing 33-27 in overtime, still covering the 6.5-point spot. Last week in Oakland was almost comical as they blew another lead and then missed what would have been a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation. But they covered (+3.5) in the 34-31 loss. In between, they have given games away late to both Indianapolis and New Orleans in the final minute. Yet, the team still has a positive point differential due to a 38-14 blowout of Jacksonville here at home in Week 2! Their four losses have come by a total of 14 points w/ one of them a coming by six in overtime. This team's fortune HAS to change! It is safe to say that there isn't a team in this league "better" than its actual record than San Diego. This is the first time this year they'll be a home dog. 

We already know that Denver will travel w/o HC Gary Kubiak for this game. That's a tough situation for interim HC Joe DeCamillis on a short week, especially if he will be starting rookie Paxton Lynch at QB again. Quite frankly, Lynch did not look very good vs. the Falcons w/ only 183 yds passing on 35 attempts. This would obviously be his first road start. Even if Trevor Siemian is able to go here, this play stands. A real key is that the Broncos' offensive line was terrible against Atlanta (allowed six sacks) and that's a team not known for a pass rush. One bright spot in San Diego's loss LW was the debut of 1st round pick Joey Bosa, who had two sacks. Also, the Chargers' own offensive line has actually been much improved. Turnovers, particularly fumbles, have killed the SD offense. If they can take better care of the football, then I see no reason why the home dog doesn't take this game outright. 10* San Diego