8* Over Collier/Felipe (6:10 ET): The very first fight on tonight’s UFC card is likely to go to the scorecards, or at least past the midway mark of the third round. Scheduled for three rounds in the Heavyweight Division, we’ve got Jake Collier (12-5 overall, 4-4 UFC) taking on Carlos Felipe (10-1, 2-1). The latter is the favorite. 

Collier has alternated losses and wins through his first eight UFC fights, never winning or losing two in a row. The bad news for him here is that he’s off a win (last December) over Gian Villante. That was by decision, which is the way three of his last four fights have ended. The exception was 1st round TKO loss to Tom Aspinall last July. That was his debut at heavyweight. Believe it or not, Collier started out as a Middleweight, so he’s moved up TWO weight classes to get here. The odds of him finishing someone like Felipe are very slim. 

Felipe lost his UFC debut last summer, but has since rebounded with B2B wins over Yorgan De Castro and Justin Tafa. All three UFC fights have gone to the scorecards. Felipe has a good chin, so that’s yet another reason to not expect him to be stopped tonight. At the same time, he doesn’t have much of a finishing game of his own. I think both fighters know their best path to victory is by impressing the judges. Expect this fight to go Over the total. 8* Over Collier/Felipe

8* Under Padres/Mets (4:10 ET): These teams have played each other five times this month. None of the games have seen more than eight total runs scored and there have been some excellent individual pitching efforts along the way. The incomparable Jacob deGrom turned in one of them last night. Before leaving due to some tendinitis (he’s believed to be fine), deGrom faced the minimum number of hitters through six innings, allowing just one hit in the process. The Mets won the game 3-2 as they continue to be a very good home team. They are 16-5 in 2021 at Citi Field where they are giving up just 1.9 rpg.

The fact we are not seeing many runs scored when these teams hook up should not be a surprise at all. I already mentioned how “stingy” the Mets have been here at home. Overall, they are allowing the second fewest number of runs per game in baseball. San Diego is #1 at 3.4 rpg allowed. There should be two more strong outings from tonight’s starters Joe Musgrove (Padres) and Marcus Stroman (Mets). Both pitched in the previous series between the teams and did well. Musgrove allowed just three runs in five innings (lost to deGrom) while Stroman allowed only an unearned run in 6 ⅔ innings of work. 

Despite losing to the Mets his last time out, Musgrove is having a great year. He threw the franchise’s no-hitter back on April 9th. There have been only two times when he allowed more than three runs this season and both were against the Giants. The Under easily hit when faced deGrom last weekend as the Mets won 4-0. Stroman is coming off four consecutive quality outings and has the 10th lowest ERA in the National League. The Padres have scored a grand total of four runs in their last three games. Should be another pitcher’s duel on Saturday. 8* Under Padres/Mets

10* Over Suns/Nuggets (10:05 ET): Phoenix has looked dominant through two games of this series. They won by an average of 21 PPG and Chris Paul now looks totally fine after being hampered by a shoulder injury for much of the first round. Since falling behind the Lakers two games to one in the opening round, the Suns have won five in a row with the last four victories all coming by double digits. Right now, you have to consider them the favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals. But the series is moving to Denver where the Nuggets averaged 115.1 PPG in the regular season. That’s well up from the 101.5 they averaged in the first two games. Take the Over. 

All five Suns’ starters have finished in double figures both games. Paul led the way in Game 2 with 17 points, 15 assists and zero turnovers. The team averaged 222.5 points in the first two games and is 31 for 72 from three-point range. They are 18-8 Over this season coming off a double digit win and 26-13 Over after scoring 115+ points in their previous game. While you might expect somewhat of a dropoff offensively on the road, Denver has given up 120.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Over is 6-2 in Nuggets’ playoff games as only one time have they allowed fewer than 115 points. 

Denver’s perceived poor effort in Game 2 led to HC Michael Malone blasting the team in the media. So expect an inspired effort as they face the potential for an 0-3 series hole. MVP Nikola Jokic has done his part, but is getting little in the way of help. At home, that should change. Will Barton is now back, having returned to the lineup in Game 2. All three of the Nuggets’ home playoff games have gone Over. They are 10-4 Over this season following a double digit loss. Though Game 2 stayed Under, scoring picked up a lot in the 2H and nearly sent the game Over. 10* Over Suns/Nuggets

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The story of the two games in Philadelphia was that each team was able to pick up a win following a hot start. I had the Hawks in Game 1 and they absolutely rolled (save for a shaky 4Q) thanks to a 42-point first quarter. I thought Game 2 was an obvious time to use the “zig zag theory” on Philadelphia and sure enough they jumped out to an early 18-point lead, held on, and won 118-102 victory as 6.5-point chalk. Now the series moves back to Atlanta - where the Hawks have won 13 in a row. I’ll “zig zag” again and take them as I’m surprised they opened as underdogs for Game 3. 

The loss of De’Andre Hunter (out for the season) is tough for Atlanta, but it’s not something they can’t overcome. Look for Trae Young to pick his shooting back up after a rare “off-night” in Game 2. After going for 35 points in Game 1, Young was held to only 21 in Game 2 and in particular, he struggled from three-point range by going just 1 for 7. The Hawks also seem to have a massive edge on the bench as their reserves have outscored their Sixers’ counterparts by almost a 2:1 margin through two games. And those two were played on the road. At home is typically where reserves play better. So expect the edge in bench points to be even bigger for Atlanta here. 

Joel Embiid has been great in the first two games, but remember he’s (theoretically) hobbled by a knee injury. The Sixers’ reserves had ZERO points in the 1H of Game 2 and aren’t likely to be bailed out by Shake Milton (14 pts in Gm 2) again. Let’s go back to something I said in the Game 1 analysis. Since Nate McMillan took over as HC, the Hawks have the best win percentage in the East, despite not always being fully healthy. Their last home loss was nearly two months ago. Philly has shot very well in the first two games (52%). Expect that to decline on the road. 8* Atlanta

10* Over White Sox/Tigers (7:10 ET): We’ve got the best AL Central team against arguably the worst in this three game series. The White Sox have raced to the top of their division with a +89 run differential (which is tied with the Dodgers for the best in all of MLB). They are off a successful series with the Blue Jays where they took two of the three. The series before that saw them take three of four from these Tigers. Detroit responded by taking two of three from Seattle this week, but they still have a -54 YTD run differential. 

This is an immediate rematch between the two starting pitchers, who just faced one another last week in Chicago. It ended up being a 4-3 final, the Tigers’ lone win of the series, when Lucas Giolito of the White Sox went against Tarik Skubal of the Tigers on June 5th. The Tigers actually homered three times off Giolito, so you would have thought they’d score more than four runs. Their scoring definitely picked up in the Mariners series with 19 runs scored in the three games. Giolito has a 5.11 ERA on the road, so I expect the Tigers to have success against him yet again. 

The White Sox are averaging 5.3 runs per game on the road this season. I can’t imagine Skubal pitching as well in this spot as he did vs. the Sox last Saturday when he struck out 11 in five innings. He’s also not known for pitching very deep into games. Only twice this season has he gone a full six innings. The Tigers’ bullpen is not good (1.51 WHIP). Back to Giolito, the number of home runs he’s allowed in 12 starts this season (13) is concerning. The White Sox are 8-2 Over as road favorites. 10* Over White Sox/Twins

8* Over Mariners/Indians (7:10 ET): Even though I won with them on Wednesday, I don’t think Seattle is very good. They lost two of three in Detroit and now own the worst run differential in the American League West. Their overall record (31-33) isn’t that bad, but is being propped up by an AL-high 13 one-run victories. When they had a better record, I considered it fortunate and now we’re seeing the team slip, which I expect will continue. Run differential is typically a strong predictor of future outcomes. 

Cleveland has also overachieved based on their YTD run differential (-12). They are five games above .500 despite being outscored on the year and only 4.5 games behind the vastly superior White Sox. The Indians are basically who I thought they’d be in 2021, a team that will finish with a winning record but not make the postseason. The team is coming off four straight high scoring games (all Overs), a stretch where they scored 27 runs but allowed 31. They won two and lost two. 

Aaron Civale starts the season opener for the Tribe. He’s allowed 4 runs in B2B starts and has given up five home runs. His lone career start vs. Seattle, which was earlier this year, didn’t go so well as he surrendered five runs in 6 ⅔ IP. Justin Dunn comes off the DL to start for the Mariners today. He’d previously pitched well, but may struggle here after dealing with a shoulder issue. Considering he’s never gone a full six innings this year, don’t expect Dunn to here. Seattle gives up 5.4 rpg on the road and is 7-1 Over its L8 games in Cleveland. 8* Over Mariners/Indians

10* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Through two games, things have not gone well for the Bucks. Ghosts of playoffs past seem to have reemerged as the team is shooting a woeful 29 percent from three-point range in the series. So much for that 1st round sweep of Miami convincing people (like myself) that this Bucks team would be different? Not so fast. The series now heads back to Milwaukee where there will be an obvious improvement in the Bucks’ shooting. As for Brooklyn, there’s just no way they can hope to maintain their current percentages of 55% overall, 44% from three and 88% from the FT line. 

Let’s not forget that sharp money was all over Milwaukee heading into Game 2. Said money turned out to not be so “sharp” as the Bucks were annihilated 125-86 as a 1.5-point favorite. They’d opened +2.5, so that line move was significant. I know Game 2 was a horrible performance, but it seems like we’re getting a discount here on the Bucks at home. This is a team that’s 28-10 SU on its home floor this season and averaging more than 120 PPG. Through two games, Milwaukee has been outscored by 66 points from behind the three-point line. That is simply not going to continue. They were one of the better 3-pt shooting teams in the regular season. 

Have we also forgotten about James Harden? He’s still out with a hamstring injury. I know Kevin Durant has been “out of his mind” and there’s only so much you can do to stop him. But on the road, I don’t think he’ll shoot 12 for 18 again like he did in Game 2. The triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James has given the Nets 79 points in the first two games. Role players tend to struggle more on the road, so their production should dip as well. This is basically “do or die” for Milwaukee as another loss would have them down 0-3 and the season would basically be over. Lay the points as I expect an inspired effort. 10* Milwaukee

7* Miami (7:10 ET): The Rockies and Marlins came into the National League together back in 1993. You have to call Miami the more “successful” franchise as they’ve won a pair of World Series (1997, 2003), although Colorado has the slightly better all-time win percentage. Last season was actually just the third time in their history that Miami made the playoffs while Colorado has five all-time playoff appearances. But the Rockies have never won a division title and their last playoff series win came in 2007 (when they made it to their only WS). 

Recently, things haven’t gone well for either team. Miami has lost 10 of 12 overall and is now last in the NL East. This despite a YTD run differential of just -2. Colorado did win yesterday’s game 4-3, but the numbers just don’t add up for them to get another victory today. They have just FIVE road wins all season and are 0-9 as a road underdog of +175 to +250. They lost Tuesday’s series opener, 6-2, as an underdog in that very price range. Entering yesterday, the team batting average on the road was below .200.

Making matters worse for the Rockies is that they’ll have to face Trevor Rogers tonight. Rogers has been “lights out” this season with a 1.97 ERA in 12 starts. He’s allowed three runs or less in every start! Chi Chi Gonzalez has a 6.20 ERA on the road for Colorado, so I have a hard time believing he can turn this into a pitcher’s duel. Considering the Rockies’ road record (5-23), it’s VERY difficult to see them winning two in a row here. I know Miami has been struggling, but this looks to be among the easiest matchups they’ve had all season. 7* Miami  

10* Under Braves/Phillies (1:05 ET): This is the finale of a three-game series. Atlanta won the opener in relative “high-scoring” fashion, 9-5. Philadelphia countered yesterday with a 2-1 win on a Luke Williams walk-off HR. It was Williams’ 1st career HR and couldn’t have come at a better time for the Phillies as they’d been held scoreless for 8+ innings and had only four hits for the game. Now, instead of facing a potential sweep at the hands of the Braves, the home team can win the series on Thursday. They are 6-5 against Atlanta this year with four of the five games here in Philly having stayed Under. 

I like this game to stay Under as well. Phils starter Zack Wheeler is a big reason why. Wheeler is having an outstanding 2021 thus far with a 2.51 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in 12 starts. You’d think he deserves a better team start record than 6-6. The issue has been that the Phillies have scored three runs or fewer in half of Wheeler’s starts this season. Still, you can count on him to hold up his end of the bargain. He has delivered six consecutive quality outings (1.65 ERA), meaning he’s gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less. He has an amazing 59-6 KW ratio during that time. 

Atlanta faced Wheeler twice earlier this year. When they did so here at Citizens Bank Park, they did not score against him. In fact, they got just one hit in seven innings. The game ended up 4-0 in favor of the Phillies. The opener of this series is the only time in five games at Philly this season where the Braves have scored more than two runs. The Phillies have scored four runs or less in four of the five games. Ian Anderson is coming off B2B rough outings for Atlanta. However, five of the six starts previous to that were quality ones. 10* Under Braves/Phillies

10* Over Nuggets/Suns (9:35 ET): Early in the second half of Game 1, Phoenix looked to be in some trouble. They were down 10 and Chris Paul’s shoulder was seemingly an issue again. Then, out of nowhere, it wasn’t an issue any more. Paul’s shot making was the catalyst for a 34-9 Suns run that gave them a 122-105 win and cover (as six-point chalk) Monday night. I apologize to everyone that was with me on the Nuggets, but for 2.5 quarters they definitely looked like the right side. Nikola Jokic certainly picked a bad time to go cold, a day before winning the league’s MVP Award. I don’t think he’ll go 10 of 23 from the floor again in Game 2.

Four Suns scored 20 or more points in Game 1. Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges joined Paul in the mix. The team shot 54% overall and finished with a playoff-high 122 points. But the Suns defense has been the real story as they are allowing just 98.6 points per game in the playoffs and 42.2% shooting. That is something I can’t see continuing. They were a good defensive team in the regular season, but even still they gave up an average of 108.5 PPG. Facing two banged up opponents thus far in the postseason has been a bit of a break. That being said, don’t be surprised if the Suns allow more than 109 points for the first time (in the playoffs) in Game 2.

The Over is 23-10-1 in Phoenix’s last 34 games. Denver is now 7-1 Over in the playoffs. The last three times these teams have met, not surprisingly, the game has gone Over with 256, 232 and 227 total points scored. Denver is 21-8 Over following a SU loss, including 10-3 if it was by double digits. Like I said earlier, Jokic is very likely to shoot better tonight than he did in Game 1. The Nuggets average 115.4 PPG for the season. Look for their scoring to rise in Game 2 (they'll DEFINITELY attempt more than SIX free throws) while Phoenix likely comes close to matching their Game 1 output. 10* Over Nuggets/Suns

10* Under Indians/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Cleveland may have won 10-1 yesterday, but this is a light-hitting American League team that loses the DH for this series. In other words, do not expect them to score 10 runs again tonight. Four of those 10 runs scored last night came in the top of the ninth when the game was out of hand. It marked the second time in three games the Tribe scored 10 runs after they had done so only once in the first 55 games of the year. This team is 28th in MLB in batting average and 29th in OBP. 

Meanwhile, St. Louis is in a terrible way right now as they’re on a six-game losing streak, their longest in four years. During the six-game slide, they have scored a total of just 19 runs. Seven of those came in one inning and that was the only game during the losing streak they scored more than four times. The Cardinals had no answers at the plate last night against Shane Bieber (few do) and tonight they will face a rookie Jean Carlos Mejia, who has worked as a starter and out of the bullpen in 2021. In four total appearances, which have lasted eight innings, Mejia has yet to allow a single run. 

Adam Wainwright will try to stop the bleeding for his team. Like I said earlier, Cleveland is not a strong offensive club, so expect Wainwright to have a solid outing here. He has a 2.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home where the Under is 6-1 so far this season. I actually successfully faded him in his last start, but he still delivered a quality outing.  He allowed three runs over seven innings. His previous three starts here at Busch Stadium all saw him go 8+ innings and allow two or fewer runs. This promises to be a low-scoring game Wednesday night and the number is already on the move. 10* Under Indians/Cardinals

9* Boston (7:10 ET): I “whiffed” on this matchup last night as the Over did NOT come through. It certainly looked good early on when the Astros put five runs on the board in the second inning. But with the game 7-1 after four innings (I needed only two more runs!), scoring came to a “screeching halt” as it was all “0’s” on the board the rest of the way. Boston going 0 for 9 with RISP certainly didn’t help matters. After all, this is a team that averages 5.0 runs per game at Fenway Park this season. 

Houston is a good team and I believe it’s only a matter of time before they eventually overtake Oakland in the AL West (just look at the respective run differentials!). I’ve got the Astros rated as a top six team in all of MLB right now, but the Red Sox aren’t far behind at #7. After getting beaten badly at home last night, I like Boston to bounce back here as the offense should definitely pick up against Jake Odorizzi, who has a 7.17 ERA in five starts for Houston. Odorizzi lasted only three innings against the Red Sox last week and he gave up three runs. That is Boston’s only win in five tries against the Astros in 2021. Odorizzi is 1-4 with a 6.26 ERA all-time at Fenway. 

One could argue the “schedule caught up” with the Red Sox yday as they were facing their third different opponent in as many days. But I look for starter Nathan Eovaldi (3-0, 1.20 ERA L3 starts) to even the odds tonight. Obviously, Martin Perez did NOT give the home team a quality outing on Tuesday. But Eovaldi did his last time out, at Yankee Stadium, and has the benefit of not having faced the Astros in the previous series between the teams. Perez had and that’s why I didn’t like his chances yesterday. Eovaldi hasn’t dropped a decision since 4/24. 9* Boston

7* Run Line Seattle (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play as I am backing the Mariners +1.5. Seattle hasn’t been successful against Detroit this year (they are 0-4 head to head), which is pretty sad considering the Tigers are just 21-35 against everyone else and are tied for the worst run differential in the American League. The Mariners aren’t very ahead of them in that regard (-55 RD compared to -56 for Detroit), but in this battle of bad teams I’m playing the “revenge card” with an additional 1.5 runs in my “back pocket.” 

Last night’s game saw the Tigers jump on Seattle starter Marco Gonzales early with a three-run first inning. From there, it was “smooth sailing” as they went on to win 5-3. The M’s had some chances, but were just 2 for 12 w/ RISP. They actually got more runners on base in the game than did the Tigers. I’m not going to try and make the case that Seattle is a quality ballclub, but I do think they’re better than the opponent here. The M’s actually hit better on the road than they do at home. 

Chris Flexen, who starts Wednesday for Seattle, was victimized by one bad inning his last time out. If not for that one bad inning, he’d be coming into tonight off B2B quality outings. He’s allowed 1 run or less in half of his 10 starts this season and the Tigers have yet to face him. Casey Mize, who starts today for the Tigers, did face the Mariners in the previous series. Including that previous start, Mize has been on a bit of a solid run, but I expect the M’s to do better at the plate the second time seeing him. Seattle has been involved in a lot of one-run games so far and that’s all we need here. 7* Run Line Seattle (+1.5)

8* Utah (10:05 ET): The Clippers were good to me on Sunday (they were my 10* Game of the Week!) but I’ll gladly fade them here coming off the Game 7 victory. Yes, they went 3-0 SU/ATS on the road in the Dallas series. But winning at Salt Lake City will not be as easy. The top-seeded Jazz are not only rested (last played on 6/2), but they are 33-6 SU on their home court this season. They did drop Game 1 here to the Grizzlies, but that should only serve to have them MORE ready to go in the second round opener. They won the last four games of the Memphis series by an average of 11.25 points per game. Lay it! 

Keep in mind that Jazz PG Donovan Mitchell sat in Game 1 vs. Memphis. Upon returning to the lineup, he averaged 28.5 points and 5.8 assists per game. The team scored 120 or more in all four first round victories. As you might guess from a 33-6 SU record, this has been a dominant home team as they’ve won here by an average of nearly 13 PPG this season. In my first round analysis, I called the Clippers the #2 team in my power ratings, but guess who’s #1? I’m not here to say that the Clips don’t have a chance in this series; I just think it’s a terrible situation they’re facing here in Game 1 with the quick turnaround.

Only five teams in NBA history have lost the first two games of a best of seven series at home and come back to win the series. The Clippers are the fifth. So they are definitely a bit lucky to be here. The league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season, they struggled from behind the arc in the first round.. But then they finally had a break out effort in Game 7. Not sure I see a carryover though as Utah keeps its opponents to 32.8% from three-point range here at home. The Jazz took two of three regular season meetings, are 9-3 ATS L12 vs. LA and 20-8-1 ATS L29 times hosting them. 8* Utah 

8* Under Blue Jays/White Sox (8:10 ET): We’ve got another matchup of top American League teams on Monday, though I think this particular series opener is going Under. Playing it’s “home games” in both Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY this season, Toronto is averaging an AL-high 5.6 runs per game there this season. But the road has been a bit of a different story as their scoring average drops to 4.4 rpg. They’ll be facing a very strong starter in Carlos Rodon on Monday. Even after his worst start to date (allowed 3 HRs vs. Cleveland), Rodon still has a 1.98 ERA and 0.823 WHIP here in 2021. 

Rodon has been especially dominant at Guaranteed Rate Field where his WHIP is a miniscule 0.562. That’s pretty filthy. What was so shocking about the poor performance against Cleveland on 5/31 is that Rodon had previously no-hit the Tribe. However, that no-hitter came here at home while the poor outing was on the road. Still, the bottom line here is that Rodon has allowed 1 or 0 ER in seven of his nine starts this season. The Under is 6-3 with him on the mound. Road teams average only 3.0 rpg here on the South Side (hitting only .204). 

The White Sox just took three of four from Detroit over the weekend and the Under hit in all three wins. They are favored again here. Toronto had a bit of a rough home series with Houston where they lost two of three. They turn to Robbie Ray on Monday, hoping he can replicate his last outing where he held Miami to one run over six innings. Ray has a 69-14 KW rate this season and also recently held a strong Tampa Bay offense to one run in seven innings. Chicago has gone Under the last six games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Under Blue Jays/White Sox

10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): I took the Hawks in Game 1, and while it definitely got a bit “dicey” at the end, I couldn’t have been more pleased with how things went. Trae Young and company jumped on the East’s #1 seed early with a 42 point first quarter. Atlanta led by 15 after 1Q, 20 at halftime and 16 after 3Q. But I’m not sure how anyone could bet the Hawks with any confidence in Game 2 based on how poorly they closed the game. Philadelphia, down 17 with 4:42 remaining, got within two in the final minute. I watched in horror as Atlanta displayed some of the worst late game execution that I have ever seen. 

As mentioned above, the Hawks started out hot w/ a 42-point first quarter. They made 14 of their first 18 shots. But gradually, the 76ers adjusted defensively and showed why they were the #2 ranked team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It was their defense, specifically trapping, that got them back into the game. They used their size advantage and I expect to see lots more of that in Game 2. Philly lost just one other game previous to Game 1 this postseason (Game 4 vs. Wizards) and I backed them off that loss. They delivered a 129-112 and improved to 9-2 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. 

The other big story for Game 1 is that Joel Embiid played. He was great with 39 points and nine rebonds, showing no real ill effects from the injury he suffered in Round 1. As a team, the Sixers actually shot better than the Hawks in Game 1, 54.9% to 51.2%. But Atlanta made twice as many threes (20 to 10) and Philly missed 11 free throws (Ben Simmons being the biggest offender). I don’t see the three-point discrepancy repeating itself here in Game 2. Atlanta got the win it needed and can head home (where they’ve won 11 in a row) with no worse than a split. Classic zig-zag play here as the end of Game 1 should carry over into Game 2. Lay the points. 10* Philadelphia

8* Over Dodgers/Pirates (7:05 ET): On paper, this looks to be a colossal mismatch with my #1 rated team in the power rankings (Dodgers) taking on the #30 team (Pirates). But as is evident by the fact they are only in third place in their own division, the Dodgers cannot necessarily always be trusted. What I do trust them to do tonight, however, is score some runs. They’ve put up an average of 6.3 over their L7 games (despite hitting only .206!) and the Over is 6-1 the last 7 times Tuesday starter Walker Buehler has been on the mound. 

Pittsburgh saw a rare three-game win streak end Sunday when they lost 3-1 to the Marlins. It figured to be a long year in the Steel City and the Pirates are pretty much “as bad as advertised.” They’ve got the worst run differential in baseball (-75) and predictably find themselves in the basement in the NL Central. While they are scoring the fewest number of runs per game in MLB, don’t discount the fact they are facing the NL’s top offense in this series. Nine of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone Over, though they haven’t met since 2019. 

The Pirates had gone Over in five straight before Sunday’s loss. Ke’Bryan Hayes is back in the lineup and that played a role in me cashing the Over in their game Friday vs. the Marlins. Buehler is working on a stretch of four consecutive quality starts, but has allowed 3 HR in the last two. He could be due for a bad outing. So too could Pirates starter JT Brubaker, who did throw six shutout innings vs. Colorado (on 5/29), but had previously given up 12 runs in B2B starts. The Dodgers are 6-0 Over following an off day. 8* Over Dodgers/Pirates

8* Over Astros/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Two of the American League’s top teams square off for the second time in 10 days. The previous series was played in Houston where the Astros took three of four games. Boston avoided getting swept with a win in the finale and hasn’t lost since. They swept the rival Yankees over the weekend, then beat Miami on Monday. Now they must deal with a third different opponent in as many days. That’s tough. My expectation is that this game will go Over the total. 

We’ve got a battle of southpaws for tonight’s series opener. Framber Valdez is set to make his third start of 2021 for the Astros. In the little we’ve seen of him, Valdez has looked sharp. Especially when he faced the Red Sox on June 2nd. He held them to one run and five hits over seven innings that day plus he struck out 10 batters. But Boston’s bats should do better the second time facing Valdez. The key is the game is in Fenway Park where they average 5.2 runs per game while batting a collective .270. 

Martin Perez also pitched well in the previous series between the teams. He was the starter when the Red Sox won the final game. Over 7 ⅔ IP, he didn’t allow a single run. But just like with Valdez, I expect the opposing lineup to make the necessary adjustments the second time around. Houston is averaging 5.4 rpg on the road. In six starts at home, Perez has a 4.03 ERA and 1.448 WHIP. The previous start against the Astros was arguably his best of 2021. I don’t see him coming close to duplicating it. Houston has scored five or more runs in six of its last nine games. Boston has scored that many in every game during the current win streak. 8* Over Astros/Red Sox

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): A big-time revenge spot for the Padres and on top of that, they’ve dropped B2B games at home. It wound up being a weekend split with the Mets, which is disappointing given that SD took the first two of that four-game set. But what they’re concerned about here is avenging a three-game sweep they suffered at Wrigley Field last week. That was just the second time all season that they suffered a sweep, the other coming at home vs. Milwaukee last month. This team is too good to stay down for long (I still have them rated #4 in my power ratings coming into the week) and I expect them to get their revenge Monday. 

The Cubs are now tied for first place in the NL Central (w/ Milwaukee) and look like the best team in that particular division. But after sweeping the Padres last week, the Cubs were nearly swept themselves out in San Francisco. They avoided the sweep with a 4-3 win on Sunday, but they are still just 12-16 on the road this season. Be aware that a reason for the Cubs’ success is the fact they have the most one-run wins (13) in all of MLB. I’m not sure how they’ve managed to go 13-4 vs.. left-handed starters seeing as how they are hitting a collective .219 in those contests. 

San Diego will send a southpaw (Ryan Weathers) to the mound on Monday. He’s still looking for his first win (0-1), but in seven starts Weathers has a 2.30 ERA and 1.061 WHIP. He did allow four runs in five innings against the Cubs last week, but the wind was blowing out that day (gave up 2 HRs). Road teams are averaging just 2.9 rpg here in SD (.196 BA). Adbert Alzolay has won his L2 starts for the Cubs, the last one coming against the Padres, but he’s never won three in a row this season. The Cubs are 17-35 L52 as a road underdog while the Padres are 41-15 L56 as home favorites. I like SD’s bats to “wake up.” 10* San Diego

10* Denver (10:05 ET): It’s not that often you can say it’s “surprising” to see a 2-seed in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs. But that’s how I view the Suns, who got by the Lakers in six games. Maybe it was a mistake to underestimate Phoenix, although the Lakers came into the postseason still favored to make a repeat trip to the Finals. After three games, it very much looked like the Suns would be “one and done,” but give them credit for taking advantage of a banged up Lakers team and winning three straight. Now they face a Denver team that is also dealing with injuries, but has adjusted much better than LA did. 

The Nuggets also won their 1st round series 4-2. Even with Portland’s best player (Damian Lillard) “going off” on a consistent basis, the Nuggets were still able to get the job done. PG Jamal Murray’s season is over and Will Barton is expected to miss Game 1 tonight. But the likes of Michael Porter Jr stepped up big time against the Blazers with three games of 25+ points. Of course, you’ve got Nikola Jokic as well. He averaged 33.0-10.5-4.5 in the first round and 25.7-13.7-8.3 against Phoenix in the regular season. The Nuggets won twice here in Phoenix and the road team actually won/covered all three regular season matchups. 

Don’t forget about Chris Paul’s injury and its effect on the Suns. Through the first three games of the Lakers’ series, it looked as if Paul's injured shoulder was going to sink them. I’ve got these teams rated far closer than the spread indicates, even after factoring in a slight home court edge for Phoenix. The Suns, who like to play slow, aren’t going to hold the Nuggets under 100 points like they were able to do against the Lakers. I’m not sure they have an answer defensively for Jokic. Denver has already overcome Lillard, so Cory Booker doesn’t necessarily scare me here. Take the points. 10* Denver

8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): On the Nets’ very first offensive possession of Game 1, James Harden went down with an injury. He immediately went back to the locker room, never returned and has already been ruled out for Game 2. For most teams, the loss of a player like Harden would be devastating. But Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who combined for 54 points. Then you had the likes of Joe Harris, Blake Griffin and Mike James combining for 49. The Nets ended up taking control of Game 1 in the second quarter and never looked back, winning 115-107 as 3.5-point chalk. They are 10-1 SU/ATS L11 games. 

I don’t think for a second that the triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James is giving Brooklyn almost 50 points again. Also concerning were the number of minutes logged by both Durant (40:06) and Irving (44:35) in Game 1. While the Nets are “used to” playing w/o Harden at this point, this is the playoffs and his absence is more significant. Harden missed 18 straight games from April 5th to May 11th and the team lost eight of those games. This is not a team I trust defensively and Milwaukee is going to shoot much better from 3-point range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. The Bucks also dominated the paint Saturday night, scoring 72 points.

The Bucks did not shoot the ball well from 3-point range in Game 1 of the first round series against Miami. They missed 26 of 31 attempts. I immediately jumped on them for Game 2 and sure enough they shot 22 of 53 from behind the arc in a 132-98 blowout victory. Not saying it will be THAT easy tonight, but you can definitely count on improved 3-point shooting from Game 1 when they made just 6 of 30. This is a team that makes 38.3% of threes for the year. Eventually, the Bucks have to cover as underdogs (0-5 ATS this year). I think it happens Monday. Take the points. 8* Milwaukee

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees have dropped 9 of 12 and while they’re still very much in the thick of the AL East pennant chase, the emerging gap between them and the other three contending team in run differential is a bit concerning. The Pinstripes now have a -3 run differential on the season. The Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays are all +39 or better. Boston is +51 and has taken the first two games of this three-game set at Yankee Stadium. But I look for NY to avoid the sweep tonight on “Sunday Night Baseball.”

Coming into 2021, the Yankees were expected to rule the AL East while Boston wasn’t supposed to contend. It’s fairly shocking to see that the Yankees have scored the fifth fewest number of runs in all of baseball this season. Only three really bad teams (Pirates, Tigers, Nats) and the Mets, who have played just 51 games (8 fewer than than Yankees) have scored fewer. I think a turnaround at the plate is forthcoming. I am certainly not scared of fading Red Sox starter Garrett Richards in this spot as he has just seven quality starts since the start of last season. 

While the lack of hitting has been a disappointment, starting pitching has been surprisingly solid in the Bronx. One of the reasons for that is today’s starter Domingo German, who missed all of last year due to suspension. German has 0.96 WHIP in five home starts, so the fact he’s winless at Yankee Stadium seems unfair. He has a 0.79 WHIP in his L3 starts. The Yankees are 7-1 his last eight starts overall. Coming into this series, Boston had dropped 15 of their last 16 games at Yankee Stadium. I can’t see them sweeping this weekend. I just can’t. 8* NY Yankees

10* LA Clippers (3:35 ET): Led by Kawhi Leonard’s 45 points (tied a career playoff high), the Clippers forced a Game 7 with a 104-97 win (as three-point favorites) on Friday night. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info department, this is the first time in NBA Playoff history (excluding LY’s bubble - when there was no home court advantage) that the road team has captured the first six games of a series. The road team is 6-0 ATS as well. I just can’t see the streak reaching seven games though. I released a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER for Game 6 and they came through. Now look for the home team to finally win (and cover) a game.

As I noted in my Game 6 analysis, LA has gone off as the favorite for every game in the series. The spread for Game 7 is roughly on par for what it was in Games 1, 2 and 5. While the Clippers lost all of those games, I still point to the fact they have outscored Dallas in the series - now by 21 points. Something that jumped out to me when analyzing Game 6 is that the Clippers have been the much better team on a per possession basis. Dallas has also seen its shooting decline dramatically the L3 games. They’ve been below 42% overall from the field each game w/ 3pt shooting really taking a tumble. 

The Clippers were the NBA’s #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season (41.1%) so it’s been surprising to see them down at 35% in this series. Still, I take it as a positive sign that they were able to win Game 6 despite shooting just 29.4% from behind the arc. They did take twice as many free throws compared to the Mavs and made 10 more. But Leonard was the key, not just offensively, but also at the defensive end when it came to stopping Luka Doncic. I think he’ll be the difference again Sunday. Lay the points as the home team is “due” to win (and cover) Game 7. 10* LA Clippers

10* St. Louis (2:15 ET): My, how the tables have turned. When these NL Central rivals met here in St. Louis back in late April, the end result was a three-game sweep by the Cardinals. Fast forward to the present and the Redbirds are now facing the potential embarrassment of being swept in a four game series here at Busch Stadium. The revenge angle is what led me to take the Reds back on Thursday. They won that one 4-2. Then they won 6-4 on Friday (with Luis Castillo, whose TSR was 1-10, on the mound!) Saturday was 5-2 Reds. But here on Sunday, it’s time to back the Birds. I can’t see them losing four in a row at home. 

While it’s performed rather well in this series, pitching has been an issue for the Reds all season. They’ve given up the second most runs in the entire National League (only Arizona has allowed more). That they’ve beaten the Cards three straight times with the likes of Gutierrez, Castillo and Tyler Mahle starting is pretty amazing. Now it’s Wade Miley set to toe the rubber on Sunday. While Miley has allowed just 1 ER in B2B outings, he’s still got a 6.58 ERA and 2.121 WHIP his L3 times out. That’s because the last time he started on the road (at Colorado), he was charged with eight runs in only 3 IP.

The WHIP of Cardinals’ starter John Gant is a bit higher than what you’d typically see from someone that also has a 1.60 ERA, but the team will take it. St. Louis is 3-0 in Gant’s previous three starts and he hasn’t allowed a single run in either of the last two (11 scoreless innings). I see him as a “stopper” of sorts here on Sunday. Gant already held the Reds scoreless for six innings back on 4/24 and that was starting opposite Miley. In 10 starts this season, Gant has yet to allow more than 3 ER even one time. Prior to yday’s loss, the Cardinals were 3-0 this season off three straight defeats. 10* St. Louis

8* Atlanta (1:05 ET): The Hawks turned a lot of heads when it took just five games to eliminate the Knicks. Trae Young was most definitely the best player on either team in that first round series and if Joel Embiid (questionable for Game 1) remains out for the 76ers, then Young is probably going to be the best player on the floor in this second round series as well. Regarding Embiid, though the Sixers did win the clincher vs. Washington, they are just 10-11 SU this season w/o the MVP Finalist. I don’t think many realize just how good this Atlanta team has been since Nate McMillan took over. They are 27-11 SU. 

That win percentage (.711) is the best in the Eastern Conference during that time. Philadelphia, who finished first in the East, won at a .703 clip in that same stretch. The Hawks were not a healthy team in the regular season as players combined to miss 278 regular season, fourth most in the league and most of all playoff teams. But now they are pretty healthy. DeAndre Hunter did an excellent job at stopping Knicks’ leading scorer Julius Randle. Atlanta held the Knicks to 39.9% overall shooting and 97.0 PPG. It won’t be that easy here, but Philly isn’t going to be shooting 51.1% in this series as they did vs. the defensively inept Wizards.

If Embiid is out for any length of time, another potential issue for the 76ers is that their defensive efficiency rating jumps to 114.8 with the other four starters on the floor. Just to give you an idea of how big of a jump that is, a 114.8 defensive efficiency rating would rank dead last in the NBA. Philadelphia actually finished second overall in defensive efficiency. Now they have to concern themselves with Young, who is averaging 29.2 PPG in the playoffs and went over 30 in all three road games. Even if Embiid does play, he won’t be 100 percent. Atlanta is a hot team that is much better than most realize. This spread speaks volumes. 8* Atlanta

7* Over Sakai/Rozenstruik (9:35 ET): We’ve got a Heavyweight Main Event at Fight Night 189 with August Sakai (15-2 overall, 4-1 in UFC) taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-2, 5-2). Both fighters are in off a loss. Sakai fell in the Main Event of Fight Night 176 last September as he was TKO’d in the fifth round by Alistair Overeem. That marked the first time in Sakai’s entire career that he was stopped. Rozenstruik has lost two of his last three fights and was beaten Ciryl Gane (via decision) back in February. 

I took the Over (1.5 rounds) in that Overeem-Sakai fight, which obviously turned out to be an easy winner. It did end up being the first time Sakai was ever stopped, but said stoppage didn’t come until the “championship rounds,” well after the O/U line had passed. Just to clarify this one, it’s the same thing as we only need the fight to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2. That seems pretty easy considering four of Sakai’s last five fights have made it to Round 3. So have 7 of his last 10.

Rozenstruik actually owns a 5th round KO of Overeem back in 2019, but he’s lost two of three since. Unlike Sakai, most of Rozenstruik’s fights have ended rather quickly, but I think it’s notable his last one marked the first time EVER a decision had to be rendered. In my analysis of the Overeem-Sakai fight, I noted that unlike most heavyweights, Sakai doesn’t typically look to end things with “one punch.” He’s a patient and more technical striker than Rozenstruik, who will have the power edge and look to use leg kicks. But he’s not all that accurate and averages just seven strike attempts per minute. In a combined 131 minutes of UFC action, these two have combined for ONE takedown! So expect a SLOW start to this one and for the fight to easily surpass the O/U line. 7* Over Sakai/Rozenstruik (1.5 Rounds)

8* Marcin Tybura (9:05 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division. We’ve got Tyburn (21-6 Overall, 8-5 in UFC) taking on Walt Harris (13-9, 6-8 in UFC). The respective form of the two heavyweights couldn’t be more different of late and Harris’ struggles at this level of competition really do stick out like a “sore thumb.” I’m going with the favorite in this main card bout, which is second from the top of the card.

Tybura is currently on a four-fight win streak right now, all of those wins coming last year. After winning three consecutive decisions over Sergey Spivak, Maxim Grishin and Ben Rothwell, he earned himself a KO victory in December over former NFL player Greg Hardy. Certainly, Tybura must be cautious at avoiding Harris’ hands as his L3 losses have all seen him get knocked out. But that seems to be a thing of the past and right now this is a fighter that seems to be in peak form.

Harris had a very difficult 2020 as he was TKO’d by both Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkoff. Not only that, but he had to deal with the abduction and murder of his stepdaughter, an awful tragedy. That came on the heels of a breakout 2019 where he went 2-0. But he’s generally struggled in the UFC as his 6-8 record indicates. He’s never been one to shy away from taking a tough matchup and has never lost three in a row before. But this is the time as he’s clearly outclassed in this one as Tybura will enjoy a massive edge on the ground where he can likely end things rather easily. 8* Marcin Tybura

10* Under Bucks/Nets (7:35 ET): This seems like it will be the “marquee” series in the second round of the NBA Playoffs as you’ve got the team that finished first in the Eastern Conference each of the L2 seasons (Milwaukee) taking on this year’s favorite to win the NBA Finals (Brooklyn). Neither team finished first in the East this season, but the winner of this series would be favored over the top seeded Sixers. The expectation is obviously for a high-scoring Game 1, but I think the total is too high here. Take the Under.

The expectation for a high-scoring contest is not without merit here as these were the top two scoring offenses during the regular season. But even so, Brooklyn games “only” averaged 233.3 points per game while Milwaukee games were at 232.5 PPG. In the first round playoff series against Miami, the Bucks allowed an average of 98.0 PPG. While repeating that vs. the Nets will be next to impossible, the Bucks did hold the Heat below 40% shooting in the four-game sweep. Brooklyn is 2-0 Under this season when playing with three or more days rest.

It’s been even longer since Milwaukee last took the court, exactly one week to be specific, so do not be surprised if they come out a bit “rusty” for Game 1. In the last round, both teams turned in their lowest scoring performances in Game 1. The Bucks-Heat game went to overtime and still ended up just 109-107. Brooklyn had to come from behind to beat Boston 104-93, which was both its lowest scoring game and best defensive effort of that series. 10* Under Bucks/Nets

8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Unlike the previous two postseasons, Milwaukee seems to be a bit underrated. They surprisingly made quick work of Miami in Round 1, sweeping the four game series and winning the L3 games by a combined 80 points. As I was looking ahead to the potential for a second round series with the Nets (which has obviously become a reality), my hope was that the Bucks wouldn’t be quite as dominant as I didn’t want them being viewed as a public side here. They’re still underdogs though and I think a case can be made that they were better than Brooklyn in the regular season. Take the points. 

Much will be made of the fact Milwaukee has had a full week off between series. Rest or rust? While I can’t fully answer that question now, I do think it was a GOOD thing that the Bucks had time to “come down” from the Heat series where they were looking to avenge LY’s Eastern Conference Finals. When it comes to the rest vs. rust debate, I don’t think there’s any real advantage or disadvantage here as Brooklyn has also had three days off. Both teams are 2-0 SU this season on 3+ days rest. 

The three regular season meetings between these teams were decided by a total of 11 points (none by more than six), so taking the points here seems like a reasonable option. Milwaukee posted the better regular season net efficiency rating and point differential. Obviously, Brooklyn is a different team now with all three of its stars (Durant, Irving, Harden) all in action. The Bucks had the higher defensive efficiency rating, which I view as key this time of year, and don’t be surprised when their three-point shooting improves from the previous round. Even with the home court advantage, I don’t think that the Nets should be favored by this many points. 8* Milwaukee

10* Baltimore (4:05 ET): It seems a bit fortunate that Cleveland would be five games over .500 (30-25). They’ve been outscored by eight runs this season, giving them a win expectancy of 27. They lost last night 3-1 here in Baltimore, a game where I easily cashed the Under. It was 1-0 Indians after six, but they dropped to 20-2 when leading after six innings as Baltimore did all of its scoring in the 7th and 8th. The go-ahead HR had to be upheld by video review, but the Orioles will take a win any way they can after a horrific May (5-23 overall) that ended with 14 straight losses. 

Baltimore is now “hot” (3-0 in June!) and will be sending their best starter to the mound Saturday afternoon. That would be John Means, who has already thrown one of MLB’s six no-hitters this season. It was basically a “perfect game” as the only baserunner to reach came after a dropped third strike. Means has given the Orioles more than just the one “near perfect” outing, however. He has a 2.05 ERA/0.796 WHIP in 11 starts and only one time has he allowed more than three earned runs. That WHIP is the best in the entire American League. Means is winless since the no-hitter, but continues to pitch well. He’s certainly due for a ‘W.’ 

As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, Cleveland is one of the weakest offensive teams in either league. They are bottom three in both team batting average and on base percentage. They rely heavily on their pitching and while today’s starter (Aaron Civale) is tied for second in wins (7), he’s not as strong as Means IMO. In his last start, Civale allowed 10 hits in a loss to Toronto. He has fewer quality starts compared to Means despite having more wins. The Orioles showed last night that they can win without scoring many runs. Expect that to happen again Saturday. 10* Baltimore

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The road team is 5-0 in this series, a trend the Clippers certainly hope continues Friday as they look to stay alive in the best of seven series with Dallas. They’re now down three games to two after dropping Game 5 105-100 as 7.5-point chalk. Los Angeles has been favored in all five games and has actually outscored Dallas, so it has to be terribly disappointing for them to be down in the series. I considered the Clippers to be the #2 overall team in the NBA coming into the playoffs, so it’s hard for me to see them bowing out of the playoffs so early. Lay the points here in Game 6.

You’d have to go back more than a quarter century, to 1995, to find the last time the first five games of a playoff series all went to the road team. So history is not on the Clippers side. But this is a team that’s 23-15 SU away from home this season. Meanwhile, Dallas’ home struggles are nothing new. While their YTD record here at the American Airlines Center is 21-17 SU, they are actually 15-23 against the spread and have been outscored. The last game here in Dallas saw the Clippers win by 25. They won Game 3 by 10 points while shooting 57.9% from the field.

The Mavs’ overall shooting has come down the last two games. They made only 34.8%, including 5 of 30 from three-point range, in Game 4. Then it was 41.6% in Game 5, only for them to get bailed out by an incredible individual from Luka Doncic. The Clippers played one bad quarter on Wednesday, that being the third when they went 8 of 21. This was the #1 three-point shooting team in the league during the regular season and they had a higher defensive efficiency rating than Dallas in the regular season. They are actually scoring the third most points per possession in the playoffs. They are 8-2 ATS L10 in Dallas and I still believe they are the better team. 10* LA Clippers

8* Over A’s/Rockies (8:40 ET): Oakland leads the AL West (despite a drastically inferior run differential compared to Houston) with a 33-25 record. They head to Colorado off B2B wins where they scored a combined 18 runs. With this series being in a National League park, the A’s lose the DH, but if there’s one place where that shouldn’t matter it’s here at Coors Field where visiting teams are averaging basically 5.0 runs per game. That’s actually a lower number than past years, so don’t be surprised if it starts to go up. 

The Rockies are averaging 6.0 rpg at home this season and just hung 11 runs on the board yesterday in a win over a different AL West team (Texas). That was Colorado’s fourth straight win, but there’s no denying it figures to be a tough season in the NL West as three teams (Dodgers, Padres, Giants) have already separated themselves. Still, the Rockies can try and “clean up” in these non-division games. They are 5-0 vs. the AL West this season and 19-12 overall at home (just 4-22 on the road!) 

Oakland is 16-8 on the road this season, 7-0 following an off-day and 4-0 off a shutout win. Considering they beat Seattle 6-0 on Wednesday (my AL West Game of the Month!), they probably feel pretty good about their chances (given the above trends) tonight. But Friday starter Frankie Montas isn’t Sean Manaea, who gave them a dominant outing 48 hours ago. Montas has allowed four runs in B2B starts. He’ll be opposed here by Jon Gray, who has seen six of his last seven starts go Over. So will this one. 8* Over A’s/Rockies

8* Over Marlins/Pirates (7:05 ET): Miami is stuck in a terrible rut right now as they’ve now dropped six in a row after a 5-3 loss here in Pittsburgh last night. Runs have been hard to come by as they’ve scored more than three just twice in the past eight games. For much of the season, they’ve been the lone NL East team with a positive run differential, but that number is now down to just +3 for the year. They are giving up 4.2 runs per game on the road, which is a full run more than what they are allowing at home. 

Pittsburgh not only got a win yesterday, but they also got Ke’Bryan Hayes back in the lineup. The third baseman was supposed to be the key cog in the lineup this season, but he’s been out ever since the second game. Hayes paid immediate dividends in his return Thursday, going 2 for 4 with a triple and he scored a run. The Pirates still aren’t going to be very good in 2021, but at least they’re more exciting with Hayes in the lineup and they should probably score more runs as well. The fact they’ve allowed the fourth most runs in the NL so far is still a problem though. 

The Marlins have Starling Marte back in their lineup and he’s gone 6 for 18 with four doubles since returning. I think that tonight is when this offense finally gets on track as they’ll face right-hander Mitch Keller, who has a 6.54 ERA and 1.688 WHIP for the Pirates in 10 starts. Those numbers get even worse here at PNC Park. Twice in four home starts Keller has given up seven runs in 3 ⅓ innings. Starting here for Miami is Cody Poteet, who is off his worst start of the year as he gave up five runs in a loss at Boston last weekend. Pittsburgh is on a 22-9-3 Over run in the second game of a series. 8* Over Marlins/Pirates

8* Under Indians/Orioles (7:05 ET): Two teams that have put up 6+ runs in B2B games start a series Friday night in Camden Yards as last place Baltimore hosts Cleveland. The Tribe hasn’t played since Tuesday as Wednesday’s series finale with the White Sox got rained out and Thursday was an off-day. Baltimore also had yesterday off after a 2-0 start to June. Certainly, the O’s are hoping this month will go better than May when they went 5-23 including 14 straight losses. After the off-day, look for these two offenses (neither of which is very good) to “cool off.” Take the Under in this one. 

Jean Carlos Mejia will make his first career big league start today for Cleveland. He probably won’t be asked to go long. But considering Baltimore has hit just .219 its L7 games, Mejia should find success while he’s in there. Before beating Minnesota 7-4 and 6-3 to open June, the Orioles had scored two runs or fewer in five of their previous six games. The L2 games are their highest scoring since a 12-9 loss to Washington back on May 22nd. The Under is 13-4-1 in Cleveland’s last 18 visits to Baltimore. 

The Indians are one of the weaker offensive clubs in the American League, if not in all of MLB. They are bottom three in baseball in both team batting average and on base percentage. Tonight, they face Keegan Akin, whose first start of 2021 saw him go up against the White Sox and allow just one run (a solo HR) in 4 ⅓ innings. I can’t see Cleveland scoring six runs for a third consecutive game, not when they only average 3.9 per game on the road. The Under is 9-3 in Baltimore’s past 12 series openers. 8* Under Indians/Orioles

8* Under Suns/Lakers (10:35 ET): This has been a low-scoring series so far with four of the five games going Under and the one that went Over just barely crept past the total because of lots of free throws in the final two minutes. The five games have averaged just 199.2 points, yet the O/U lines have remained fairly consistent since Game 1. This is an elimination game for the Lakers, who were blown out in Game 5, 115-85. Game 2 (the lone Over of the series) is the only time in the series where the losing team scored 100 points. Gonna keep rolling with the Under, which I cashed in on back in Game 4. 

I’m 2 for 2 in this series, not only cashing the Under in Game 4 but the Lakers in Game 2. I do have to say that I’m surprised to see the Lakers down three games to two, especially considering they were seemingly in complete control following a 109-95 win in Game 3. But then Anthony Davis got hurt and nothing has been the same. In the six quarters they have been without Davis, the team has totaled only 127 points. That’s really bad. The most points the Lakers have scored in any game this series is 109. Three times they’ve been held below 100. 

Now one of the Suns’ key players (Chris Paul) is also injured, though he’s been playing through it. But Paul has obviously been ineffective, shooting just 40% in the series. The Lakers were the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season and before Game 5, Phoenix had yet top 102 points in any game in the series. So with Davis questionable to play in Game 6, the way the best chance for the Lakers to stay alive is their defense. They are 15-5 Under after allowing 115+ points this season and 29-9 Under vs. teams that are .500 or better. 8* Under Suns/Lakers

analysis soon

8* Run Line Cincinnati (8:15 ET): Revenge game for the Reds and since the run line (+1.5) is available, I’ll take it. Both teams are coming off ugly losses. The Reds lost 17-3 to the Phillies on Tuesday while the Cardinals lost 14-3 in LA last night. Cincy got an unplanned off-day when yesterday’s series finale with Philly was rained out. That gives them a nice edge coming into today’s series opener as St. Louis has to fly back East with no time off. The fact that the Cards are now -10 for the year in run differential tells me they are quite lucky to be six games above .500. 

The Reds got off to a strong start this season (6-1), but are 10 games below .500 since that time. Pitching has been the main issue as they’ve allowed more runs this season than all but one team (Arizona). Hopefully, Vladimir Gutierrez can help stem the tide. After going 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA down at Triple-A Louisville, Gutierrez made a solid big league debut last Friday when he held the Cubs to just one run on two hits. The Reds lost the game 1-0, but remember that a one-run loss will suffice for us here. St. Louis is hitting .218 its L7 games. I expect Gutierrez to pitch well tonight and keep his team in this one. 

Hitting has not been an issue for the Reds this season. They’ve scored the 4th most runs in the National League with only the three heavyweights from the West (Dodgers, Padres, Giants) topping them. So getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with seems like a nice luxury to have. The Reds will have to deal with Adam Wainwright, but he’s been inconsistent all season and does not have a great track record facing Cincinnati. Wainwright is 10-14 all-time vs. the Reds with a 5.35 ERA. He’s allowed 4+ ER in four starts this season, one of them against the Reds (9-6 loss). 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* Portland (8:05 ET): The Blazers are both facing elimination and at home tonight, so I’ll lay the points in this “must-win” scenario. Game 5 of this series was an all-timer as it went to double overtime, but despite 55 points from Damian Lillard (made 12 threes!) the Blazers still lost the game 147-140. The “zig-zag theory” (simply take the ATS loser of the previous game) has been a fairly reliable 3-1 ATS so far in the series and you just get “the feeling” that these teams are destined for a Game 7. 

It’s impressive that Denver has the series lead here despite being without their two primary ballhandlers: Jamal Murray and Will Barton. Nikola Jokic is having himself quite the series, averaging 32.4 and 11.0 rebounds per game and he’s registered a double-double three times. But playing this game on the road, I don’t think the Nuggets can count on the kind of performances they got from Monte Morris (28 pts), Michael Porter Jr (26) and Austin Rivers (18) in Game 5. Going back to last season, Denver is 0-5 ATS when leading in a playoff series. 

Lillard’s teammates really let him down in the two overtime periods Monday as they shot a collective 1 for 19 from the floor. That’s atrocious. Similar to the regression I see happening with some of the Nuggets’ role players, I look for Portland’s (role players) to improve. Besides Lillard, the rest of the Blazers went 9 of 31 from three-point range in Game 5. This is a team that shoots 38.7% from behind the arc for the season. While a lot of that is Lillard, expect CJ McCollum to play a lot better here. 10* Portland

10* Oakland (10:10 ET): While I’m not at all convinced the A’s are going to be able to stay in front of the Astros in the race for the AL West pennant, I’m even less sold on the idea of the Mariners being able to maintain a .500 record moving forward. In terms of the gap between actual and expected wins, no team in all of MLB has overachieved more than Seattle has. The M’s have the run differential of a 22-win team, yet are sitting in third place in the division with a 28-28 record. Not for long though. 

Oakland came from behind to take Tuesday’s game, 12-6, after losing the series opener on Monday. The A’s have more hits in this series (23-19) and that loss on Monday came in extra innings. Extra inning results have been vital to Seattle overachieving thus far as they are a perfect 5-0 in such games. But counting on that kind of good fortune to persist seems foolhardy. This Mariners team is among the very worst in all of baseball offensively. They are dead last in both team batting average (.207) and on base percentage (.284). 

Here at home, the M’s are batting just .193! So it should be an easy day for Oakland starter Sean Manaea, who already has an 8-3 TSR on the year. His numbers on the road are just “so-so,” but that’s largely because of one poor outing at Boston (who is one the strongest offensive clubs). In seven of his last 10 starts, Manaea has allowed 2 ER or less. He’s allowed just one run in three of his four starts on the road. Seattle’s Chris Flexen is far less consistent as his L2 starts have produced both the best and worst performances of his career. Oakland is 15-8 in road games. 10* Oakland

10* Under Grizzlies/Jazz (9:35 ET): So the Over is 4-0 in this series. I had the Over in the last game and though it looked like a “surefire” winner after three quarters (score was 100-87 Utah), I had to end up “sweating things out” thanks to the Jazz going relatively cold in the fourth. Eventually though, the game did go Over as the Jazz prevailed 120-113 (total was 225.5) to take a 3-1 series lead. The West’s top seed has now taken the last three games after being upset here at home in Game 1. The oddsmakers keep moving up the O/U line and I think Game 5 is when we finally have an Under. 

The big difference in Game 4 was three-point shooting. Utah made 50% (17 of 34) while Memphis made 28.6% (10 of 35). Will we see those numbers even out a bit tonight? Probably. But I don’t see the Grizzlies improving that much being they’re on the road. They shot just below 35% from three-point range the first two games in Utah. This is not a particularly prolific three-point shooting team either. Of the 16 teams that made the playoffs, they have taken the fewest number of attempts from behind the arc. That’s right on par with the regular season when they were 25th (out of 30 teams) in # of three-point attempts.

Utah leads the league in 3PA this season, but they are not likely to hit 50% again as they did in Game 4. Jordan Clarkson went 4 of 9 from deep in the last game en route to 24 points. He’d previously gone 3 of 21 on 3PA in this series. These are two top six teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It’s time we had an Under in this series. 10* Under Grizzlies/Jazz

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The 76ers failed in their first attempt to eliminate Washington, losing Game 4 by a score of 122-114 (as 8.5-point favorites). Even worse, Joel Embiid left Monday’s loss with a sore knee. Long-term, that is something definitely worth monitoring. Short-term, I still expect the Sixers to end this series in five games, even if Embiid does not play Wednesday. The Wizards’ overall fitness is not exactly 100 percent and they are 0-7 SU in the City of Brotherly Love the L3 seasons. Lay the points.

In addition to the Embiid injury, it was one bad quarter that doomed Philly’s prospects on Monday. After they took an 11-point lead in the 1Q, things tightened up by halftime. Then they were outscored 32-19 in the 3Q, which is when the game - and the franchise’s chance at its first series sweep in 36 years - got away from them. It was during the 3Q that Washington chose to employ a “Hack-a-Ben” strategy, as in Ben Simmons, whose inability to hit free throws really cost the team. Simmons is a hideous 5 of 20 from the charity stripe in this series. It will be interesting to see if the Wizards continue to elect to send him to the line in this game. If they do, Simmons must make them pay.

Let’s not forget that Washington was last in the league in the regular season in points allowed per game. They’ve been even worse in this series, allowing the 76ers to score an average 122.7 points in the four games. Russell Westbrook has played the L2 games, but is banged up, and Davis Bertans is now out for the rest of the series. That’s no matter as the Wizards’ season is going to end tonight as Philadelphia is a strong 8-2 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this season. Three-point shooting has been a massive problem for the Wiz in the L3 game, which is not a surprise as the Sixers were #2 in the league during the regular season in number of points allowed per possession. Vintage “zig zag theory” here.  8* Philadelphia

8* Under Wizards/Sixers (7:05 ET): I also like Game 5 to go Under the total. Yes, I know three of the first four games have gone Over the total. But Game 4 was the first time we didn’t see red-hot shooting from either side, even though three of the four quarters saw 59 or more total points scored. The Embiid injury is the big story. The 76ers shot just 41.7% in Game 4 compared to 58.6% in Game 3 and 55.7% in Game 2. While they figure to improve (from Game 4), with or without Embiid I don’t see them getting back to the level of Games 2 and 3. 

Washington has struggled with its three-point shooting all series. They did make 9 of 24, which is a reasonable percentage, in Game 4. But that was also after going 10 of 57 from behind the arc in the previous two games. Again, the Wizards’ struggles offensively shouldn’t be that surprising given Philly allowed the second fewest number of points per possession in the regular season. Russell Westbrook, hobbled by an ankle injury, has been an albatross when it comes to three-point shooting. He’s just 3 for 15 in the series. 

I also don’t expect the teams to combine for a somewhat preposterous 76 free throws in this game. That was the number in Game 4, a byproduct of Washington continually sending Ben Simmons to the line. In the previous three games, there were never more than 49 total free throws attempted. Even if the Wizards choose to keep sending Simmons to the line, I don’t see the same kind of productions from the charity stripe here. Washington made 33 FT’s in Game 4! That’s 13 more than they average per game for the season. 8* Under Wizards/Sixers

10* Under Tigers/Brewers (7:40 ET): It’s dueling lefties in Tuesday’s game between the Tigers and Brewers, two teams that don’t hit very well. Throw in the loss of the DH for the road team in this series and you’ve got all the makings of a low-scoring game. The Brew Crew won Monday’s opener, 3-2, and that game went 10 innings. With the pitcher having to bat, Detroit had issues at the plate (more so than usual) yesterday. Manager AJ Hinch actually pulled starter Tyler Alexander after just one inning as the Tigers had the bases loaded when it was time for him to bat. Later in the game, reliever Rony Garcia came up to the plate and struck out. Strong play on the Under here. 

The Tigers have scored the fewest number of runs this year among American League teams and remember that’s mostly with a DH in the lineup. Tonight they’ll have to contend with Eric Lauer, who will make his fourth start of the season for Milwaukee. The southpaw was sharp his last time out, holding San Diego to just one run and four hits over six innings. The Padres have scored the second most runs in the National League, so this is a far more favorable matchup for Lauer. 

The Brewers have the lowest team batting average (.210) in the NL and like the Tigers are bottom five in both on base percentage and slugging. So look for Matthew Boyd to get back on track for Detroit. Tuesday’s starter has struggled recently, but had allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of his first seven starts of 2021. The Tigers have one of the highest Under percentages in all of baseball (63.5% of all games) and they are 6-0-1 Under their last seven. 10* Under Tigers/Brewers

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I went with the Nets in Game 4 and that turned out to be rather easy as they blew past the Celtics 141-126. It was the most points ever scored by the franchise in a playoff game as they torched Boston for 57.8% shooting, including 16 of 27 from three-point range. More importantly, the win puts Brooklyn on the cusp of advancing to the second round. It is certainly in their best interest to advance ASAP, given that Milwaukee swept Miami. I think it’s pretty clear that the Nets are the vastly superior team here and short of another 50-point game from Jayson Tatum, they should win big.

Tatum did go for 40 in Game 4, but that wasn’t nearly enough as his teammates shot just 42.8% from the field. Tatum got nearly half his production from the foul line (17/17), which can’t be counted on when you’re on the road like Boston now is for Game 5. Making Tatum’s job even tougher here is that the Celtics are playing short-handed. Both Kemba Walker and Robert Williams III sat out Sunday and may be out again here. Even if one or both injured players were to suit up tonight, I don’t think it will matter much. Walker is shooting just 31.8% in the series. Williams averages only 6.3 points per game. 

Going back to the end of the regular season, Boston has won only three of its last 10 games. I did take them in Game 3 (winner!), figuring that would be their “best effort” of the series and it was. But they are clearly outclassed here as the Nets got 80+ points from Durant/Harden in Game 3, then 80+ from Durant/Irving in Game 4. Too many weapons. Brooklyn is averaging 123.5 PPG in the series and shooting 49.3% overall, 41.3% from three-point range and 92% from the FT. Boston is now 0-9 ATS in its L9 times when playing with just one day of rest. Look for this series to end tonight in blowout fashion. 8* Brooklyn

8* Run Line Washington (7:20 ET): The Nationals were swept at home by the Braves early last month. They failed to exact revenge yesterday, losing the series opener 5-3. That was a bad call by me, my only loss out of four MLB plays for Monday. But I think the Nats have an even better shot at exacting revenge Tuesday as Stephen Strasburg will be on the hill for them. Please note that this is a run line play only where I’m taking Washington +1.5. Three of the seven times these NL East rivals have met this season, the game has been decided by exactly one run. 

It’s been a very disappointing start to the season for the Nationals as they are in last place in the division (with a 21-29 record) and currently on a five-game losing streak. But Atlanta has actually been one of the biggest money losing teams at the betting window this season as they are down 9.2 units in all situations. They’ve actually been priced as a 40-win team, but they are 20-20 when favored on the money line and 25-26 overall. They had two of the previous three days off (rain), so maybe that’s why they were able to start so strong yesterday (led 4-0 after two innings). Still, it was Washington that finished the game with more hits. Leadoff man Trea Turner killed the Nats yesterday by going 0 for 5 with four strikeouts. (I expect him to do better today). 

Having Strasburg on the mound also helps the Nats’ cause here. Earlier in the year, he tossed six shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Braves. He’s pitched well in both starts since returning from the DL, allowing only three runs total in 10 ⅓ innings. This will be the third time Washington has faced Max Fried this season, so that’s an advantage. Fried gave up five runs in just two innings the first time. He was better the second time, but I think the third time will be the charm here for the Nationals. Expect no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5)

8* Over Jazz/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): All three games in this series have gone Over with the last two seeing 270 and 232 combined points. There’s really no reason to expect there won’t be a lot of scoring tonight in Game 4. The last game saw Memphis shoot just 43% overall from the field and 31.7% from three. Yet they still scored 111 points. That’s slightly below their season average. You have to expect a little better offense from the home team in Game 4, especially since the Over is 7-0 the L7 times they’ve been a playoff underdog. 

Utah has to feel good about itself seeing as they won Game 3 by 10 points despite taking 19 fewer shot attempts. They were dominated on the offensive glass, 16-7, but Memphis only ended up making three more shots than the Jazz did. It’s something to watch here as the Grizzlies should be more efficient if they are able to control the glass again. It should be noted that Memphis is shooting a solid 47% for the series. Utah gives up 110.1 PPG on the road, up from 105.1 PPG allowed at home. 

But regardless of the fact Memphis is likely to improve at the offensive end tonight, the Jazz are going to “get theirs” too. They’ve averaged 123.7 PPG in the three games and they’ve made 19 three pointers in each of the last two games. They are above 45% from behind the arc in their two wins. The Over is 6-0 in Utah’s last six games as a playoff favorite. The Over is also 7-1 the last eight meetings between these teams. Only two of those eight meetings saw less than 230 total points scored. 8* Over Jazz/Grizzlies

8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): The Dodgers just dropped three in a row to the division rival Giants, but they should bounce back on Memorial Day (at home) against the Cardinals. St. Louis is in first place in the NL Central, but they only have a +5 run differential for the season, which is not what you’d expect from a club that’s seven games over .500. The team they lead by half a game in the division, the Cubs, has a much better YTD run differential and based on that you’d expect a “changing of the guard” in the Central fairly soon. How about today?

Even though they are on a three-game losing streak, I don’t see much reason to be concerned with the Dodgers. This is still one of the best teams in baseball and they are 3-1 this season when on a 3-game losing streak. They’ve got Trevor Bauer on the hill Monday and his 5-6 team start record is very misleading when you consider his ERA and WHIP are 2.07 and 0.818 respectively. Bauer has gone a full six innings in all but one start this season and has allowed 2 ER or less 10 consecutive times. He’ll pitch well tonight.

Bauer will be opposed by Jack Flaherty, who has a 9-1 TSR and has been one of the best pitchers to bet on in all of baseball. But most of Flaherty’s starts have come as a favorite. He actually allowed seven runs his last time out, though four were unearned. That ended up being the first time all year that the Cardinals lost a Flaherty start and it came on the road against a very good team (White Sox). It’s a similar matchup Monday and St. Louis is coming off a 9-2 loss to an Arizona team that had previously lost 13 in a row. 8* LA Dodgers

9* Kansas City (8:10 ET): This sets up as a favorable series for the host Royals, who get to play two games against the worst team in all of baseball. Pittsburgh comes in as losers of seven of nine. They did take two of three in the last series, but that was at home against Colorado, who is also bad. The last time the Pirates had to hit the road, they got outscored 33-3 in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves. They’ve subsequently scored three runs or less in four of the last six games. 

Don’t expect much offense from the Bucs today as they are averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the road this season with a .219 average. They are also just 3-7 in games vs. left-handed starters (21-45 L3 seasons). The southpaw that they’ll see Monday is Mike Minor, who has pitched well recently with a 3.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, Minor held Tampa Bay (who has been hot at the plate) to just one run and two hits (in five innings). 

Kansas City has won three of its previous four series and just took two of three in Minnesota for their first series win there since 2017. They could only manage a split of two games when they visited Pittsburgh last month, but now they get them at home. No team has been outscored by more runs than the Pirates have (-74 run differential) and Monday starter Chad Kuhl is coming off the 10-day DL after posting an ugly 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP his previous three starts. KC is 6-0 its last six interleague home games when facing a right-handed starter. 9* Kansas City

10* Under 76ers/Wizards (7:05 ET): It certainly appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this 76ers-Wizards series as top-seeded Philly looks to become the second team in the East (Milwaukee) to sweep their way into the second round. Truthfully, the Wizards didn’t stand much of a chance here with the 30th ranked (that’s last!) scoring defense in the NBA. But you would have hoped for a bit of a better effort in Game 3 on their home floor, especially since Russell Westbrook ended up playing.

Instead, what Washington got was a 132-103 loss in Game 3. For the second straight game, Philadelphia shot the lights out. After making 55.7% of their field goal attempts in Game 2, they were at 58.6% in Game 3. They even made 17 of 33 attempts from three-point range, which was way up from the previous two games. In fact, the Sixers made just 19 threes COMBINED in Games 1 & 2. While Washington’s defense may not give you much confidence, expect the Sixers’ shooting to fall off a bit here in Game 4. It’s only natural.

The Wizards’ shooting in the last two games has been less than desirable as they are just below 40% overall and a horrendous 10 of 57 from behind the three-point line. While there should be some expectation for improvement there, keep in mind that Philadelphia was #2 in the regular season in defensive efficiency and clearly is not having much difficulty stopping the Wiz in this series. They’ve allowed an average of just 105.3 PPG in the series and this is the highest O/U line yet. 10* Under 76ers/Wizards

8* Run Line Washington (5:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I’m taking the Nationals +1.5. The last series was not a good one for the Nats as they were swept at home by Milwaukee. They scored only three runs in that series and have now lost five of six overall, including four straight. In those six games (against the Reds and Brewers), Washington has crossed the plate only nine times and been shutout twice. It’s certainly looking somewhat grim right now for the last place team in the NL East. 

Up next for the Nationals is a visit to Atlanta. The Braves had an unexpected off-day Sunday as their game with the Mets was postponed due to rain. That was a break as they avoided facing Jacob deGrom in what was scheduled to be the ESPN Sunday nighter. But don’t be surprised if the rain out “throws the Braves off” a little. They are actually just 15-25 after an off-day the L3 seasons. They were beaten 13-2 on Saturday (by the Mets) and have been a disappointment this season at the betting window (-10.2 units). 

Washington has revenge here for a three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves earlier this month. Three of the six games these teams have played in 2021 have been decided by one run, so you can see how the RL can come in handy here. A big key here is that Atlanta starter Charlie Morton is 2-6 with a 6.14 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Nationals. Joe Ross gets the call today for the visitors and he’s allowed two runs or less in seven of nine starts this year. He threw four shutout innings his last time out. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5)

10* Under Rays/Yankees (1:05 ET): It’s been a phenomenal month for the Rays as they’ve gone 21-6 in May and won 15 of their last 16 games. However, they did drop two of three games to New York three weeks ago. That was after sweeping a three-game series here at Yankee Stadium last month. Going into that last visit to the Bronx, the Rays were on a three-game losing streak. This time, they’re on a four-game win streak and have seized first place in the AL East with a 34-20 overall record. 

No team in the AL East has allowed fewer runs this season than have the Yankees, who are giving up just 3.6 per game. Only four teams in all of baseball, three of them from the National League, are allowing a fewer number of rpg. However, the Yanks just shockingly dropped three straight games in Detroit while scoring a total of five runs. If they thought scoring runs on the Tigers was difficult, then I’m not sure what to say here as the Rays are also top 10 in MLB in run suppression. NY was 2 for 25 w/ RISP in the last series. 

Rich Hill starts the opener for the Rays. Over his previous six starts, he’s held opposing hitters to a .134 batting average while posting a 1.26 ERA. That includes a win over the Yankees, who he held scoreless for 6 ⅔ innings. Last time out, Hill struck out 13 in eight innings of work, although that ended up being a 2-1 loss to the Royals. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has also been outstanding this year. I do think their hitters are due to cool off though. Since May 6th, the team is batting .321 w/ RISP. Jameson Taillon threw five shutout innings his last time out for the Yanks and is up for the challenge. 10* Under Rays/Yankees

10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets jumped out to a 19-4 lead on Friday and appeared well on their way to taking a 3-0 series lead. But Boston had the lead (33-32) by the end of the first quarter, something they would only briefly relinquish, and would end up winning 125-119 as seven-point underdogs. They were carried by Jayson Tatum’s 50 points. As someone who had the Celtics plus the points in Game 3, I loved it. But I also don’t think there’s any disputing who the stronger team is in this series. I’ll go with them (that being the Nets!) tonight in Game 4. Lay the points. 

Going into Game 3, Brooklyn was basically even money to sweep this series. So the odds are still strong that they’ll finish off the Celtics in five games instead of four. Boston simply shot the ball better in Game 3 (50.6%) than they did in either game at Brooklyn, led by Tatum’s incredible individual effort. If you were to take out the shooting of Kemba Walker and Romeo Langford, then the Celtics’ Game 3 shooting effort was downright insane. It’s something that won’t be repeated tonight in Game 4, even though they are still at home. Boston has not won B2B games in the month of May. 

Meanwhile, Brooklyn had won and covered seven straight before the Game 3 loss. An “off-night” was fairly predictable, which is why I took the Celtics in the last game, but so is the bounce back tonight. Outside of the “Big 3” (Durant, Harden, Irving), the rest of the Nets scored just 23 points on Friday. That number is going to go up here. The Nets were the NBA’s highest scoring team in the regular season and actually averaged more on the road than they did at home. This is the first time in the series with just one off day between games. Boston is 0-8 ATS its L8 games with just one day of rest. 10* Brooklyn

8* Under Suns/Lakers (3:30 ET): The Lakers came into this series as the favorite, despite being the 7-seed, and have begun to assert themselves by winning the last two games. Keep in mind they’re not just the favorites to advance to the second round, they also have the shortest odds to win the Western Conference. Anthony Davis is listed as questionable to play in Game 4 Sunday (sprained knee), but has said there’s “no chance” he sits out. For Phoenix, Chris Paul is still dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of practice Saturday. He’s clearly not himself and thus the Suns have really struggled offensively in the series. I think those struggles continue here on Sunday. Take the Under. 

If not for some questionable fouling down the stretch in Game 2, it is likely that the Suns would have been held below 100 points in all three games of the series. They are averaging just 98.7 points in the three games with Game 2’s 102 being the high-water mark. Game 2 is the only one of the three to go Over, and again there was some foolish fouling by the Lakers near that end of that one that allowed it to go Over. We’ve yet to see a game with more than 211 total points scored in this series. 

Given that the Lakers are #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the low-scoring should not be all that surprising. Then you have to throw in the fact they are facing an opponent whose PG is clearly injured. Paul is averaging only 6.7 PPG on 38.1% shooting in the three games so far and the Suns’ offensive efficiency plummets with him on the court. There’s also now too much pressure on Devin Booker to score. The Lakers are the only team in the league who have gone Under more than 60% of the time and the Under is 27-9 when they face a team that has a winning record. 8* Under Suns/Lakers

10* Under Orioles/White Sox (2:10 ET): The situation in Baltimore has gotten quite dire as the Orioles have now lost 12 in a row after being swept in yesterday’s doubleheader here in Chicago. Meanwhile, things are looking rather good for the White Sox, who lead the AL Central with a 31-20 record. Their +78 run differential is the best in the American League and second best in all of MLB (San Diego). As for the Orioles, their run differential (-65) is the AL’s worst and second worst in all of MLB (Pittsburgh). So it’s teams at very opposite ends of the spectrum here and odds are that the home team finishes the sweep Sunday. 

Yesterday’s doubleheader saw 15 total runs scored in 13 innings. Only five of those runs came from the Orioles, who have now been held to four or less in six straight games. I do not anticipate them doing well today against White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, who is coming off B2B strong outings. Giolito has also allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts. The O’s have hit just .222 in games vs. right-handed starters in 2021. 

With the White Sox so heavily favored today, odds are that we won’t have to play the bottom of the ninth. That can be key when playing the Under. Also key is the Chicago bats hopefully not going “off” against Baltimore starter Keegan Akin, who will be making his first start of the season. Akin is a lefty that the White Sox have never faced before. So that’s a bit of an edge. Akin has made some appearances out of the bullpen this season and has 10 strikeouts in 10 ⅓ IP. The Under is 4-0 in Chicago’s L4 games vs. a southpaw starter. 10* Under Orioles/White Sox

10* Houston (2:10 ET): The Astros have been dealt two very painful extra inning losses by the Padres. Friday’s 10-3 defeat was as misleading a final score as you’ll ever see as San Diego scored seven runs in the top of the 10th. What happened Saturday may have been even more painful, however. Houston led 6-1 going into the eighth inning and then 6-3 going into the ninth, which is when Fernando Tatis tied the game with a 3-run HR. After the teams exchanged runs in the 10th and 11th, the Padres put the game to bed with a three-run 12th. They are now a MLB-best 8-0 in Interleague Play this season. 

The Astros have clearly deserved a better fate in this series (as have Under bettors!) and I think they’ll avoid the sweep Sunday. They hand the ball to Zack Greinke, who has a 0.857 WHIP his L3 starts. In 26 career starts vs. the Padres, Greinke is 13-3 with a 2.44 ERA. (Remember he spent a lot of time in the National League). Despite what’s gone down in this series, I still firmly believe that Houston is the best team in the AL West. Just look at their vastly superior run differential. They have won six of Greinke’s previous eight starts, the only losses coming to the Yankees and Dodgers. 

San Diego has now played four consecutive extra inning games, so they’ve got to be getting a bit tired. There is no denying that this is a very good baseball team, one that is very much living up to the preseason hype. However, it sure seems fortunate that they are averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road with a .239 team average. (Houston averages a near identical # of rpg at home, but w/ a BA that’s almost 30 pts higher). Speaking of the road, Padres starter Blake Snell has a 7.85 ERA and 2.017 WHIP in five away starts (0-5 TSR). 10* Houston

8* Run Line Arizona (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I’m taking the D’backs +1.5. Arizona just keeps on losing as the streak has now reached 12 in a row following last night’s 8-6 defeat at the hands of the Cardinals. Fortunately, I was on the Over, which was an easy winner that cashed in the top of the fourth inning. As bad as things are in the desert right now, five of the losses during this streak have been by one run. I’m confident Arizona gets it done today with the benefit of the RL. 

After putting eight runs on the board last night, some may be tempted to say St. Louis “broke out” of its recent offensive slump. But that’s really not the case. They only had six hits. They’re batting just .200 the L7 games and .216 for the year on the road. Arizona, meanwhile, has left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth in two of their last three losses. They average 5.0 rpg at home (.263 team BA). Last night saw them leave 13 runners on base. It was a game they easily could have won. 

Adam Wainwright was sharp in his last start for St. Louis, allowing just one hit over eight scoreless frames. But that was at home. On the road, he has an 0-3 team start record, 8.56 ERA and 1.829 WHIP. So don’t be surprised if he struggles tonight. Then there’s the matter of the Cardinals scoring three runs or less in seven of Wainwright’s nine starts this season. Seth Frankoff is making just his third start of 2021 for the D’backs and it should go better than the last one (which was at Coors Field). 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5)

analysis soon

8* Washington (7:05 ET): Same strategy here as last night’s winners on Boston and the Clippers. We’re taking the team down 0-2 and this one seems real similar to the Celtics play as the Wizards are at home and being largely “written off” in this series with the top seeded 76ers. Right now, the big story is the “iffy” status of Washington PG Russell Westbrook, who rolled his ankle in Game 2 and is listed as questionable for Game 3. But if there was ever a time to take the Wiz it would be here as you’ve got to figure we’re getting their best effort with the season on the line. Even if Westbrook does not play, the Wizards still have Bradley Beal, who was the league’s second leading scorer in the regular season. 

Westbrook or no Westbrook, Washington will definitely shoot better from three-point range here compared to the last game when they went a dismal 2 of 22 from downtown. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such poor three-point shooting, especially from a team that averages 116.5 PPG. As you’d expect, the Wizards’ scoring average jumps here at home (to 119.6 PPG) and the role players should universally benefit from being back in familiar surroundings. Washington has won its last four home games and the last time they played here (play-in game vs. Indiana), they scored 142 points. 

Philadelphia won’t shoot 55.7% from the floor again as they did in Game 2. They’ve now scored 120 or more in four straight games, going back to the end of the regular season. But all four games were at home. Their scoring drops pretty dramatically on the road where they average just 109.8 PPG (as opposed to 117.7 at home). While the Sixers are 31-7 SU at home this season, they are only 20-16 SU on the road. Washington has covered five straight times off an ATS loss and Philly is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. 8* Washington

8* Boston (4:10 ET): Rain wreaked havoc on last night’s MLB slate. The Marlins and Red Sox only got six innings in for their series opener, but that’s enough to make it an “official game” and Boston will gladly take the 5-2 win. This is an important weekend for the Red Sox as they’ve fallen out of first place in the AL East and now trail the red hot Rays by one-half game. With a 6-2 record in Interleague Play and 11-5 record vs. left-handed starters, I’m confident they’ll win again Saturday. 

Nathan Eovaldi will start this one for the home team. He has pitched better on the road than here at Fenway in 2021, but facing a National League lineup should be a favorable matchup. While Miami does get to use a DH in this series, this is a lineup that only averages 3.9 runs per game and hits .220 on the road. Over the last four games, the Marlins have scored just eight total runs. While he’s had some tough outings, Eovaldi has allowed 2 ER or fewer six times this season. He has a 1.102 WHIP over his last three outings. 

Miami’s chance for success today rests heavily on the arm of starter Trevor Rogers, who has a 1.75 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 10 starts. But he’ll be facing a much stronger lineup than he usually faces this afternoon. The Red Sox are tied for the #1 spot in all of MLB as they are averaging 5.2 runs per game. This being a day game is a big edge for Boston as the Marlins average only 2.5 rpg (.185 BA) in 16 afternoon starts this season. Rogers only previous IL start of 2021 was at home and against Baltimore. 8* Boston

10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (4:05 ET): These teams have now played FOUR straight games, going back to the regular season finale. All four games have gone Over the total. Exceptional shooting - from one or both teams - has typically “ruled the day” every game. Game 3 of this first round series saw Denver make 20 of its 38 three-point attempts (52.6%) en route to a 120-115 victory. What was somewhat amazing about that win is that the Nuggets had 16 fewer shot attempts in the game. But the aforementioned 3-point shooting and a +14 edge in FT attempts (+11 in makes) gave the road team the victory and 2-1 series lead.

I missed on the Under in Game 3, but will come back with it here. I don’t think Denver is going to shoot THAT well again from three-point range. Portland isn’t very good defensively, but even they are allowing just 37.4% shooting from three-point range for the season. Denver shoots 37.8% for the year. Overall, the Nuggets have shot 50% in the three games. I don’t think that can be sustained, especially on the road. Austin Rivers probably isn’t scoring 21 points again either. 

Portland shot 48% from three-point range in the first two games before “cooling off” and going just 14 of 45 in Game 3. Damian Lillard is averaging 37.7 PPG In this series, but his three-point shooting in particular cooled off considerably in the last game. He didn’t get much help either. You have to believe we’re due for a “lower-scoring game” in this series. This is Denver’s first 4-game Over streak since mid-January. For Portland, it’s just the third time this year they’ve gone Over in four straight. They’ve never gone Over in five straight games and neither has Denver. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers

10* Manchester City (3:00 ET): It’s an all-EPL final in this year’s Champions League with Chelsea taking on Man City in Porto. The latter were this season’s Premier League Champs by a comfortable margin as the Citizens finished 12 points ahead of second place Manchester United and 18 points ahead of their fellow Champions League finalists. For my money, Man City was not only the top English club this season, but the top side in all of Europe. In addition to bagging their 5th EPL title, they dominated the EFL Cup and won 11 of their 12 UCL fixtures thus far (7-0 L7). That includes wins over Gladbach, Dortmund and PSG in the knockout stages. 

Chelsea did finish 2nd in the EPL in expected points and there is no denying the campaign took a turn for the better once Thomas Tuchel became the manager. In the 29 matches since he took over, Chelsea has conceded 1 or 0 goals 27 times. But one of the exceptions came in the final matchweek of the season, a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa. That’s a little troubling seeing as how the Blues were looking to cement their place among the EPL’s top four (they ended up finishing 4th). Recent form hasn’t been great for Tuchel’s side as they’ve dropped three of their last four across all competitions. They did beat Atletico Madrid, Porto and Real Madrid in the knockout stages to get here. 

Manchester City had the EPL title wrapped up months ago, so the fact they’ve lost two of their last four fixtures is a lot less concerning. Honestly, this just “feels” like it is the season for the Citizens to win this tournament for the very first time. The fact it is a double revenge spot - Chelsea beat them 1-0 in the FA Cup semis and then 2-1 at Etihad Stadium on May 8th - only “sweetens the pot” as far as I’m concerned. In that loss on home soil, there was a crucial missed penalty for Man City and then they gave up the winning goal in added time. Man City was the only EPL side to concede fewer times than Chelsea this season and their 83 goals also led the league. No one came close to the +51 GD (#2 GD was +29). They are clearly the better side here, in my opinion. 10* Manchester City

8* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): Seattle took yesterday’s series opener, 5-0, a much needed result for them after they’d dropped seven of their previous nine. As bad as things have been in the Pacifc Northwest recently, Texas is the team in last place in the AL West as they’ve now dropped six of nine. During that stretch, the Rangers have been shutout three times (including yday). However, if they can take solace in one thing it’s that the Mariners are dead last in MLB in both batting average and slugging percentage. 

As a team, the M’s came into yesterday’s game batting just .178 at home. That’s horrendous! Well, not if you’re Jordan Lyles, the Texas starter for Friday’s game. Lyles has generally been okay for the Rangers this season, allowing 3 ER or less in seven of his 10 starts. He had one horrible outing on April 26th, but he was making his second consecutive start against the same team (Angels). Seattle did not face Lyles in the previous series between the teams. Lyles has been a dog on the ML in every start thus far, so a 5-4 TSR is actually good. 

The Over is 3-0 in the previous three starts of Seattle’s Justus Sheffield. But I look for that to change here. Yes, he did struggle when he faced the Rangers on the road earlier this year. But Sheffield has been sharp each of the last two starts at home where he’s gone six innings both times and allowed just 2 ER total (on just 7 hits). Texas came into yday hitting just .200 over its last seven games, so this should be another low-scoring game between familiar foes. 8* Under Rangers/Mariners

10* LA Clippers (9:35 ET): The biggest swing that we’ve seen so far in terms of series odds is from Clippers-Mavs. The Clippers, initially -400 to win this series, are now down 0-2 and listed at +220. That’ll happen when you lose twice at home. Only 6.3% of teams that have fallen behind 0-2 in a best of seven series have gone on to advance. That’s the situation the Clippers find themselves in now, but the deficit is far from insurmountable. After all, they’re actually favored to win Game 3 in Dallas where they are 6-2 ATS L8 visits. I’m laying the short number Friday in what is an obvious “must-win” situation. 

Now, as I’ve detailed many times before, “must win” does not necessarily mean “will win,” But you’ve got to think the Clippers will at least start to rectify this discrepancy we’ve seen behind the three-point line. In the first two games of the series, Dallas has made 50% of its 3PA (35 of 70). The Clippers are at 24 of 73 or 32.8%. This is awfully strange for LA, who led the league in three-point shooting percentage (41.4%) during the regular season. They scored 73 points in the first half of Game 2 … and still lost! That’s because Dallas shot 58.5% overall and made 18 threes. 

Not only do I expect the Clips’ three-point shooting to get better in Game 3, I expect the defense to improve as well. They were a top eight team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The good news is that after the last six times LA gave up 125+ points in a game, they came back and covered five times. They lost 127-121 in Game 2.  Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both doing their jobs; they just need their teammates to start stepping up. The All-Star duo has 118 combined points through two games. I just cannot see this Clippers team losing a fifth straight game outright as favorites. I had them #2 overall in my own personal power rankings, heading into the playoffs. 10* LA Clippers

10* Over Cardinals/D’backs (9:40 ET): Embattled Arizona has now dropped 11 straight following last night’s 5-4 loss in extra innings. They were forced into making a pitching change just hours before the start of Thursday’s game and unfortunately Jon Duplantier (making his 1st big league appearance since 2019) could not get the job done as he allowed four runs over 4 ⅔ IP. The D’backs did rally to tie the game in the later innings, but it was all for naught. That result comes on the heels of another 5-4 loss the previous day where they BLEW a 4-0 lead and left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. 

Meanwhile, St. Louis has now won B2B games following their own tough stretch. But I don’t think they can be trusted today as they send Johan Oviedo to the mound. Oviedo has not been good in 2021 with an 8.18 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in his three starts. The Cardinals have lost them all. Going back to last season, the Cards have lost ALL EIGHT games that Oviedo has started. So Arizona has some hope here. They are averaging a solid 4.0 runs per game. Given how many they typically allow, a season average day at the plate would suffice for how I’m playing this game. 

Madison Bumgarner will get the baseball for the D’backs, trying to end this long losing streak. His best days are clearly behind him though. MadBum just allowed a season-high seven runs his last time out. While that was at Coors Field, the Over is 3-0 in his three home starts as well. Bumgarner had been pitching better before that start in Denver, but don’t forget he also began 2021 by allowing 5+ ER in each of his first three outings. I think both teams are due to “break out” at the plate tonight. 10* Over Cardinals/D’backs

8* Boston (8:35 ET): It certainly FEELS as if everyone is writing off the Celtics at this point. In fact, the general consensus seems to be that they’re about to be swept by the Nets. But down 0-2 in the series and back at home, I anticipate their strongest effort coming in Game 3. Remember that they were ahead at the half, on the road, in Game 1. Yes, I’m well aware of the fact that Jaylen Brown is out for the season and Jayson Tatum had to leave the last game - a 130-108 loss - with an eye injury. But Tatum’s status was upgraded on Thursday and he will play. Meanwhile, the Nets are going to be without Jeff Green the rest of this series. 

Now obviously the Nets are relying heavily on their “Big 3” - Durant, Irving & Harden - who played a total of just nine games together in the regular season (202 total minutes). They haven’t had a problem so far in this series, particularly Game 2 when they shot much better than they did in Game 1. The team shot 52.3% and made 17 threes with the “Big 3” scoring a combined 61 points. But really the star of the game was Joe Harris, who made seven of those 17 threes himself and finished with a team-high 25 points. One thing’s for sure and that’s you shouldn’t expect a repeat performance from Harris, who had 16 points in the 1Q, helping the Nets get out to an early 14-point lead and 24-point lead by half. 

Boston has yet to defeat Brooklyn this season in five tries and four of those losses have been by double digits. But, again, if they were to win one it would likely be this game. Home teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series have been excellent bets through the years. In this instance, it looks like we’re getting some tremendous value as the Celtics closed +8 and +8.5 in the first two games and those were in Brooklyn. This will be the Nets’ first road game in 17 days. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS L28 as home underdogs. 8* Boston

8* Under Blue Jays/Indians (7:10 ET): Toronto finds itself in somewhat of an unenviable spot today as it visits Cleveland. They’ve lost seven of nine and just split a doubleheader with the Yankees on Thursday. Cleveland comes in having taken three of four from a team they always seem to dominate (Detroit) and is now six games over .500. This will be the first meeting between these teams in almost two years and I expect it to be a low-scoring one as each of the last three Indians’ games have seen seven or fewer total runs scored. Meanwhile, there were only 10 total runs scored in yday’s Jays-Yankees twinbill. 

Cleveland does not hit particularly well as they came into yday’s game with a .215 team batting average. They were actually shutout 1-0 in a loss Wednesday before bouncing back to win 5-2 yday afternoon. Over the L8 games, the Tribe has scored 28 total runs and been shutout twice. So expect Toronto south Hyun-Jin Ryu to pitch well Friday as he makes his 10th start of the season. Ryu already has a solid 2.53 ERA and 1.031 WHIP this season. He’s been especially good in his L3 starts with a 1.31 ERA & 0.919 WHIP. 

Cleveland is going with Eli Morgan, a top prospect that will be making his big league debut. The “unknown factor” certainly is in Morgan’s favor Friday. The Blue Jays scored only five runs in 14 innings of baseball on Thursday and one thing you know you’re going to get with the Indians is solid pitching. Visiting teams are batting a collective .215 at Progressive Field this season and not much better overall. Of course, there’s the issue I brought up earlier and that’s the Indians don’t hit well themselves. 10* Under Blue Jays/Indians

10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (10:05 ET): These teams have now played each other THREE straight games, starting with the regular season finale. That finale was won by Portland, 132-116, allowing them to secure the 6-seed and face Denver in this first round series. The Nuggets chose not to play their starters for most of that finale, perhaps hoping to avoid the Blazers, but they got them here anyway due to the 4th seeded Clippers also losing on the last day of the regular season. As for the two games that matter more, the Nuggets and Blazers are all tied in this series after Denver won big (128-109) in Gm 2. 

All three of these games have gone Over the total. I took the Nuggets in Game 2 partly because I expected them to rectify the discrepancy in three-point shooting we saw back in Game 1. That wound up happening, although Portland was still better from downtown - 48.5% to 42.9%. The Blazers are 35 of 73 (47.9%) from behind the arc in the two games, which is going to be a difficult percentage to maintain even as the series shifts to their home court. Damian Lillard made an incredible EIGHT three-pointers in the 1H alone in Game 2, which was a playoff record for a half and thus certainly isn’t going to be repeated. 

Though they struggled from downtown in Game 1, Denver is above 50% overall shooting for the series. Again, that’s going to be really hard to maintain. As you’d expect, the Nuggets’ scoring average dips by a few points when they’re on the road. Fortunately for them, they also allow slightly less PPG on the road. When it comes to stopping Lillard, Denver may have found an answer with Aaron Gordon, who defended the All-Star well in the 2H of Monday’s game. Unfortunately, with Will Barton still listed as “questionable” (as of press time), the Nuggets may still be w/o their two primary ball-handlers. The Under is on a 12-4 run in Denver playoff games when the series is tied (as it is here). Portland is 6-0 Under off their previous six double digit losses. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers

8* Run Line LA Angels (9:40 ET): Both these AL West teams won yesterday afternoon with the Angels beating the Rangers 9-8 and the A’s defeating the Mariners 6-3. While Oakland continues to lead the division, it’s the Angels that are on a three-game win streak and the A’s are a questionable first place team in my eyes. I say that based on the fact they’ve been outscored this season by 11 runs, which is not at all indicative of a team with a 29-22 record. They had that 13-game win streak earlier in the season, but are obviously just 16-22 otherwise (with a -56 run differential!). I say it’s only a “matter of time” before Houston (+55 YTD run differential) passes them and this matchup might aid in that “changing of the guard.” 

As you’d expect, the starting pitching matchup heavily influenced my decision on this one. Shohei Ohtani starts for Los Angeles today. Despite having an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, Ohtani has pitched well during that time with a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The problem has been a lack of support as the Angels have scored just four runs total in those three games. For the year, Ohtani has a 2.37 ERA and he’s yet to drop a decision. The two-way star is expected to bat in this game as well. 

I know LA is without Mike Trout, leaving a massive hole in the everyday lineup, but they’ve scored 20 runs the past two days. Tonight will be their second time seeing Oakland starter Chris Bassitt in less than a week. They faced him on Saturday and while that was a 6-2 loss, look for the tables to turn Thursday. Bassitt is winless at home this season and his offense is hitting just .212 at RingCentral Coliseum. Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Angels +1.5. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The line movement for tonight’s series opener between St. Louis & Arizona definitely caused me to raise an eyebrow. The D’backs, losers of 10 in a row and 20 of 24 games this month, are now slight favorites to beat a first place Cardinals team that won 4-0 yesterday afternoon. Now I’m certainly willing to fade the Cards again after they “got one over” on me in that game vs. the White Sox on Wednesday afternoon. They won despite only five hits, but two were Tommy Edman home runs and that’s all they needed. But I sense this is a trap game for a team that’s failed to score more than four runs in any of its last six games. 

Meanwhile, little has gone right for Arizona and yesterday’s 5-4 loss to the Giants may have been the new nadir. They blew an early 4-0 lead and down one run in the bottom of the ninth, they left the bases loaded. It was a game they outhit the Giants 13-9, but the D’backs could not get a run across the plate after the second inning. Just like St. Louis, the D’backs are struggling to score, but they do average a solid 5.0 rpg at home where they are hitting .265. That’s a lot better average than St. Louis, who hits just .216 on the road. 

So I see Arizona’s losing skid coming to an end today as they send rookie Matt Peacock out to the bump. In his two previous starts, Peacock has not been bad at all as he has a 2.61 ERA and 0.968 WHIP. I’m simply not sold on this St. Louis team which leads its division despite a YTD run differential of only +6. Carlos Martinez, who will be their starter on Thursday, began the year with an 0-4 TSR and the team lost his last start, 12-3 to the Cubs. The Cards have won B2B games only one time in the L2 weeks and that was against Pittsburgh. 10* Arizona 

10* Utah (10:05 ET): The Jazz shockingly went down in Game 1, 112-109 as eight-point favorites. But PG Donovan Mitchell is on track to play in Game 2 and I’m willing to bet that the #1 overall seed in the playoffs bounces back from an overall dreadful night of shooting. A team that usually makes 46.8% of its field goal attempts made only 42.0% in Game 1 and things were even uglier from three-point range where Utah shot only 25.5%. Again, this was a 52-win team in the regular season and Sunday was only the sixth loss at home all season. They are almost +13.0 PPG at home and only five times this year have they lost B2B games. Lay the points. 

I’m not sure Memphis can possibly expect things to go any better than they did in Game 1. At one point, they missed 14 consecutive shots yet still led at halftime. Utah went 12 of 47 from three-point range when they normally average 38.7%. The average number of threes per game that the Jazz hit is 17. Dillon Brooks had 31 points for the Grizzlies in Game 1, which is something I don’t see being repeated. Memphis has now won eight of nine, including three straight since the play-in round began. But those three wins were all by five points or less (total of 12 pts). 

Mitchell sitting out in Game 1 for the Jazz has been a big topic of conversation over the last 48 hours. His presence is key considering the team lost six of its last 16 regular season games without him. Mitchell largely outplayed Brooks in two head to head regular season meetings, scoring twice as many points while shooting a far higher percentage. The Jazz were +14 in FT makes in Game 1, but lost in large part due to taking 20 fewer FG attempts. Memphis had 16 offensive rebounds, an edge I don’t think they’ll have again in any game moving forward. The Grizzlies are just 2-7 ATS off their L9 ATS wins. 10* Utah

10* San Diego (7:40 ET): The Padres finally broke through against the Brewers last night, beating them 7-1 thanks to some savvy baserunning (six steals) and a masterful start from Joe Musgrove. Previously, SD was 0-5 this season vs. the Brew Crew, a record that made little sense given that the Padres are obviously the better team. They’ve now won 10 of their last 11 games and have a half game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West. I currently have San Diego #2 overall in my own personal power rankings. 

Tonight actually marks the first time in the series that the Padres are favored to win. Last night, they were up against Corbin Burnes, who has been one of the better pitchers in baseball the first two months of the season. But they got to him with five steals and drew three walks. The Padres’ offense has been quite impressive during this 10-1 run, scoring 76 runs or an average of nearly 7.0 per game. Tonight they face former teammate Eric Lauer, a lefty that allowed three home runs the last time he started (which was 5/4).

Pitching has been just as key to the Padres success this season. No team is allowing a fewer number of runs per game than San Diego’s 3.1. Opponents are hitting just .202 against them for the year! Milwaukee had just two hits in last night’s game as Musgrove and three relievers totally shut them down. The Brewers are 27th in MLB in runs scored per game and hitting only .209 as a team. Look for them to struggle here against Chris Paddack, who has a 1.38 ERA his L3 starts, all Padres’ wins. 10* San Diego

6* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): While it’s still early in the season and they have yet to put any real distance between themselves and the rest of the division, the White Sox are clearly establishing themselves as the team to beat in the AL Central. They have the best run differential in all of the American League entering Tuesday (+73) while no other team in the Central is better than +2. This afternoon they go for a three-game sweep of floundering St. Louis, who they’ve outscored 13-4 in the first two games.

The Cardinals don’t seem to have recovered from Sunday night’s painful 2-1 loss to the rival Cubs. In that game, they allowed just three hits. While the Cards remain in first place over in the NL Central, they now have a run differential of just +2, a far cry from the White Sox even though the teams have fairly similar records. St. Louis just isn’t scoring many runs of late. Yesterday was the fifth straight game where they finished with three runs or fewer. They are hitting only .215 on the road for the season. 

The two starting pitchers for this afternoon - John Gant for St. Louis and Carlos Rodon for Chicago - have similar ERAs. But WHIP tells a far different story when it comes to these pitchers’ respective seasons. As I’ve been through before with him, Gant is getting away with putting a LOT of runners on base. His WHIP is 1.563. He’s also lasted more than 5 ⅓ in just one of his eight outings. Compare that to Rodon, who has a WHIP of 0.797. Even though the White Sox ended up not winning the game, Rodon was masterful his last time out in holding the Yankees to just two hits over six scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts. That was the 4th start this year where Rodon didn’t allow a run. He’s allow 1 ER or less in six of seven starts. 6* Chi White Sox

10* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers were still listed as the favorites to win the Western Conference coming into the playoffs (despite being a 7-seed!), but Phoenix was listed as the fave for Game 1 of this series and certainly looked like the better team Sunday afternoon. The Suns won 99-90, holding the Lakers to less than a point per possession, which is an impressive defensive effort. LA shot just 43.4% as a team, including 7 of 26 from three-point range. LeBron had just 18 points (only 13 FG attempts) while Anthony Davis shot 5 of 16 and had a +/- of -18. I think the Lakers bounce back in Game 2. 

The big story to monitor is Chris Paul’s shoulder. If the Phoenix PG is hampered by it, then the Suns are in trouble. Remember that the Lakers did lose Game 1 in Round 1 last year and then went on to win the next four over Portland, not to mention the NBA Championship. Getting back to the apparent Paul injury, he was clearly bothered by it late in Game 1. That’s probably why the Lakers are now favored to take Game 2. Well, that and the fact it seems unlikely they would fall down 0-2 in the series. Classic zig-zag play on the Lakers here. Oddsmakers are just trying to “scare bettors off” by making them the favorite. 

Let’s not forget how it’s the Lakers that ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. I thought they did a pretty good job at that end of the floor in Game 1. They held the Suns 16 points below their season average. You’ve got to think the Lakers’ shooting will improve for Game 2. Meanwhile, the Paul injury could have a massive impact on the Suns offense. Obviously, you could say the same about James and the Lakers, but I’ve got more confidence in his ability to “play through it.”  Look for him to go inside more often (took only four shots within 10 ft in Gm 1). 10* LA Lakers

9* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Tigers +1.5. I lost with them yesterday, but the final score was 6-5, a result that will suffice tonight. While you probably don’t need me to tell you that Detroit is “bad,” they had won 9 of 11 heading into Saturday. Two of their last three losses have been by one run. Cleveland has been the Tigers’ “kryptonite” in recent seasons as the head to head record in this AL Central rivalry is 30-6 in the Indians’ favor since 2019! That includes four straight wins this season. But still playing with revenge for the prior sweep, I’ll back Detroit +1.5. 

Tarik Skubal finally got a win his last time out for the Tigers. He pitched five innings and gave up two runs in a 6-2 win over Seattle. The Tigers swept that series, but have reverted back to previous form ever since. There’s no denying that Skubal’s won-loss record isn’t the best, however he hasn’t pitched all that poorly. Six of his seven starts have seen him allow four runs or less. He has an 0-2 TSR vs. Cleveland and both times started opposite Aaron Civale, who he’ll face again tonight. I think the third time could be the charm here for Skubal as the Indians are not the most potent offensive ballclub. 

Civale has had the Tigers’ number in the past as he’s 5-0 all-time against them (2.40 ERA) including the two wins back in April where he allowed just five hits. Civale’s team start record now stands at 7-2 for the year, but I’m still a little unsold on him. This just feels like a spot where the Tigers can “ambush” Cleveland as they went off as the betting favorite for yesterday’s opener. An already weak Indians lineup is now even weaker with Franmil Reyes out six to seven weeks. The Tigers left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth last night, so they easily could have won the game. They were just 3 for 13 w/ RISP. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

7* Washington (7:05 ET): The Reds got off to a 6-1 start, but are 10 games under .500 ever since. They come into this series in the Nation’s Capital having dropped six of seven, all at home. They were swept by the Giants, then lost two of three to the Brewers over the weekend. While the club certainly has no problem putting runs on the board (4th in MLB), run suppression has been a major issue for Cincy as they are dead last in all of MLB in runs per game allowed (5.6). I expect that issue to continue in Tuesday’s opener vs. the Nats and because of who they’re facing on the mound, they won’t be scoring as much as usual. 

Max Scherzer goes today for the home team and he’s having a strong start to 2021. There’s been only one time in the L8 starts where Scherzer gave up more than two runs and that was under AL rules, meaning he was facing a lineup with a DH. Since joining the Nationals, Scherzer is 5-0 against the Reds with a 1.06 ERA and 55 strikeouts. You’re looking at a 2.24 ERA and 0.852 WHIP from Scherzer this season and with the exception of that one Interleague start, he’s allowed just four total runs over those L8 starts. 

Tyler Mahle, the Reds starter for Tuesday, allowed seven runs in his last start alone and that lasted only two innings. So this looks to be a pretty significant pitching mismatch in the Nats’ favor. That last start marked the second time Mahle has given up 6+ ER in a start this year. The Reds’ staff was dead last in ERA among NL teams entering the week. Worst of all, Mahle has a 12.15 ERA in two previous starts vs. the Nationals. While Cincy is sinking, Washington is coming off its first off-day in two weeks and a sweep of the Orioles before that. 7* Washington

10* Denver (10:05 ET): Despite shooting 50% for the entire game, leading at halftime and playing at home, the Nuggets still found a way to lose Game 1 to the Blazers - by 14 points. How could that be? Well, it basically boils down to two things: the third quarter and three-point shooting. With the former, they got outscored 38-25 in the third, which was basically the difference in the game. With the latter, they shot just 11 of 36 from 3-point range (30.6%) while Portland was 19 of 40 (47.5%). I don’t think we’ll be seeing a discrepancy like that again in Game 2 and am going full “zig zag theory” on this one. Lay the points. 

For those that are unfamiliar, the famed “zig zag theory” is as simple as it gets. You just take the ATS loser of the previous game. With Denver, they obviously cannot afford to drop both home games. This is a team that generally shoots much better from three-point range than they did in Game 1. They are now 0-4 ATS this season head to head with the Blazers, which seems odd seeing as how they have the better overall record. I think the majority of signs point to a Denver bounce back in this game and I’m honestly shocked the spread is not higher. 

Portland did a pretty decent job at defending Nikola Jokic in Game 1, which sounds odd as he went for 34 points. But he had only one assist, a career-low for the playoffs. I know the Nuggets are missing both Jamal Murray and Will Barton, but I’d remain leery of a Portland team that finished the regular season only ahead of Sacramento in terms of most points allowed on a per possession basis. Denver has been outstanding this season when seeking revenge for a home loss, going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. They are also 11-2 ATS the L3 years when trailing in a playoff series. 10* Denver

8* Under Blazers/Nuggets (10:05 ET): I also like the Under in Game 2 as neither team is likely to shoot as well as they did in Game 1, in particular Portland when it comes to three pointers. Something I failed to mention in the other writeup is that Denver attempted only eight free throws in Game 1 (made just four!). Expect more production there. That may sound like an odd way to begin a writeup on the Under, but while the Nuggets are likely to be more productive from the charity stripe in this game, their overall FG% is likely to fall. As I said in the other writeup, they are without primary ballhandlers Murray and Barton.

But the fortunate thing for Denver is that Portland isn’t going to be as hot from three-point range as they were in Game 1. The Blazers made 19 threes in Game 1 and shot 47.5% from behind the arc. Those numbers are well above their season averages. 

Another reason to like the Under is that Denver plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire NBA. They are bottom five in adjusted tempo. Only the Clippers, Heat and Knicks average a fewer number of possessions per game. 8* Under Blazers/Nuggets

8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): For awhile there in Game 1, the Bucks had to be having flashbacks to LY’s Eastern Conference Semifinals as they were having all sorts of problems scoring against Miami. But thanks to Kris Middleton, who hit the GW in OT, the Bucks did win Game 1, 109-107. Winning a game where you shoot a horrendous 5 of 31 from three-point range is pretty huge in my book. You have to think that the Bucks, who were 4th in the league during the regular season in 3-point shooting (38.9%), will do better from distance in Game 2. Because of that, I’m laying the number tonight. 

Conversely, Miami should NOT feel good about losing Game 1. They made a franchise record 20 three-pointers (on 50 attempts!), meaning they outscored Milwaukee by 45 from behind the arc and still didn’t win. Also, hitting 20 threes and still only scoring 107 points (with overtime!) is pretty dreadful when you think about it. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both struggled as they combined to go 8 of 37 from the field. As a team, the Heat made just 32.7% of their two-point attempts. They did cover, but just for the third time in their last 10 tries as a road underdog.

The previous two seasons saw Milwaukee come into the playoffs with the best regular season record in the league. They “flamed out” both times, losing in the Eastern Conference Finals to Toronto two years ago and then Miami in the semis last fall. This year’s team “only” finished third in the Eastern Conference standings, but I feel they’re a much better value vis a vis the rest of the field, at least compared to the L2 years. The Heat made a somewhat improbable playoff run in a “bubble” LY, but now the Bucks have home court advantage and I like them to go up 2-0 in the series. 8* Milwaukee

9* San Diego (7:40 ET): I am SHOCKED at the pricing of the Padres for this one. Not only do they have revenge for a prior sweep, but they’re red hot right now (winners of nine in a row). After sweeping Seattle over the weekend (in dominant fashion), I’ve got the Padres ranked at the top of my own personal power ratings in MLB. The last day that San Diego failed to win a game was May 8th. Their only loss since was part of a doubleheader on the 12th as they’ve won 12 of the last 13 games overall. They outscored the Mariners 31-7 over the weekend. 

Milwaukee got off to fast start this season, but things have quickly gone south. They did just take two of three in Cincinnati, but are just 3-6 their L9 games and Sunday marked only the 2nd time in that stretch they scored more than four runs. That’s simply not enough offense when facing the Padres, who are among the best offensive clubs in baseball. Meanwhile, there aren’t many teams in either league to have scored fewer runs than the Brewers this season. 

I realize that Brandon Woodruff is pitching tonight for the Brew Crew and his numbers have been outstanding in 2021. But no team is allowing fewer runs per game than San Diego’s 3.1 and during the nine-game win streak, the Padres are averaging 7.3 runs per game. Lefty Blake Snell gets the starting nod here for SD and he’s a terrible matchup for a Milwaukee lineup that’s scoring only 2.5 rpg when against a southpaw starter (just 2-6 in those games). You could point to the fact that the entirety of the Padres’ nine-game run has been at home, but they average more runs per game on the road and Milwaukee has a losing home record. Look for the Padres to get revenge here for last month’s sweep. 9* San Diego

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Tigers aren’t going to get my endorsement many times this season, but they are taking the field with revenge on the mind and Spencer Turnbull on the mound Monday. The last time we saw Turnbull, he tossed one of MLB’s six no-hitters this season. That outing came in Seattle and was the continuation of a strong start to 2021 for the right-hander, who now has 2.88 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in six starts. Facing a Cleveland team that doesn’t hit particularly well (.214 BA), Turnbull should be effective yet again tonight.

Though Detroit has lost each of the previous two days (I played against them Saturday), they’ve done a decent job at climbing out of the “abyss” they were in early in the season. Things looked particularly dire when they’d dropped 16 of 18 games. But they’ve now won 9 of 13 and yesterday’s loss in KC came on a walk-off HR. The team still doesn’t hit particularly well, but they’ve gotten good pitching of late and that trend should certainly continue with Turnbull. Also, I’d like to point out that the Tigers left 20 men on base the L2 days, which certainly helps explain those losses. I think they could be poised for an offensive breakthrough tonight. 

Sam Hentges will be making his third start for Cleveland in this one and he’s yet to be effective. I was at the ballpark to watch his 1st start and have to say the Indians were lucky to win that one (2-1 over the Cubs) as Hentges put a LOT of runners on base in his 4 ⅔ innings of work. He was even worse when I faded him exactly one week ago, a 7-4 loss to the Angels where he gave up six runs in 1 ⅔ IP. Control has been an issue. When the Indians swept the Tigers, that was at Progressive Field. They come into Detroit having lost six of nine and fell in extra innings Sunday (which can always be deflating for the next day). A rare chance to take the Tigers. 10* Detroit

9* St. Louis (7:05 ET): The Cubs and Cards play the rubber match of this three-game set Sunday night on ESPN. As of right now, these are looking like the two best teams in the division (NL Central). The Pirates are awful, the Reds can’t pitch and the Brewers can’t score. These two are more complete ball clubs. It was a dominant 12-3 win by the Cubs on Friday, but that was followed by the Cardinals winning 2-1 yesterday. The fact that the home team has been able to split the first two games while scoring only five combined runs is something I view as a positive as it’s likely they’ll “break out” at the plate tonight. 

I say that because they’re facing Zach Davies, who has not been particularly impressive in 2021 even though he has a winning team start record (5-4). Davies is 2-2 in those nine starts with a 5.58 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. The numbers get even more dire on the road (8.59, 2.249). He also isn’t going very deep into games. Only one time, against lowly Pittsburgh, has he gone a full six innings. Six of his nine starts have been five innings or less. The Cubs haven’t been a very good road team thus far as they’re just 7-13 outside of Wrigley Field and getting outscored by a full run per game. 

St. Louis is 15-9 at Busch Stadium and a big reason for their success here is that opposing teams are batting only .219. Adam Wainwright, a long-time Cubs nemesis, will look to continue that trend tonight. No active pitcher has more career victories against the Cubs than Wainwright’s 17. While he was rocked last weekend by San Diego, Wainwright’s last start here at home saw him nearly go the distance (8 ⅓ IP) while allowing no runs and just three hits. The Cubs had only five hits on Saturday after being fortunate enough to score 12 runs on 12 hits Friday. This might seem like an “even matchup,” but I like the Cards a lot here. 9* St. Louis

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): I don’t think many could have predicted that the Knicks, who finished 21-45 SU in LY’s abbreviated regular season and thus weren’t even invited to the bubble, would have home court advantage for a first round playoff series. Then again, Atlanta is another team that went from “not being good enough for the bubble” to the playoffs this season. Two of the league’s most improved teams square off here in this first round series and I like the Hawks to take Game 1. Take the points. 

New York’s massive jump in the standings this season was largely a byproduct of their defense, which gave up a league-low 104.7 PPG in the regular season. The team also covered at a shocking rate, going 45-25-2  ATS, the best such mark in the league. There is no doubt that MSG, which will be near full capacity (15,000 fans), should be rocking Sunday night as it’s been a long time since the “World’s Most Famous Arena” hosted a playoff basketball game. But the Knicks feel like a very “public” side here and it’s rather curious the line is so short. Personally, I’m not shocked as I view these teams as being pretty even. 

The reason the Knicks have home court advantage for this series is because they went 3-0 head to head with the Hawks in the regular season. I don’t think NY has any distinct matchup advantage, so Atlanta is due to break through with a victory here. The Hawks led two of those three games at the half, so it’s not as if they played poorly. Since Nate McMillan took over as the interim HC, the Hawks are 27-11 SU. New York was pretty fortunate in close games down the stretch and I see things likely to go “the other way” for them here. 10* Atlanta

10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): With a win on the final matchweek of the season, Roma can solidify a seventh place finish in the Serie A table. That means a place in the new Europa Conference League next season. So the Giallorossi definitely have something to play for here. While winless in their last four away matches, they probably couldn’t have asked for a better final opponent. Spezia has just one of their last seven league games and have the fourth worst goal differential (-20) in all of Serie A. Look for the favorite to pick up all three points here and guarantee themselves European football next season. 

Roma bounced back nicely from a 3-1 loss to Scudetto winners Inter with a 2-0 win of their own overl Lazio last week. Though the gap between those two rivals (Lazio and Roma) is seven points, they are much closer (in terms of quality) than that margin would seem to indicate. Ironically, Lazio will be playing the side Roma would like to lose this week, that being Sassuolo. But again, the Giallorossi can make that result irrelevant simply by winning Sunday. They already the reverse fixture, 4-3, on home soil back in January. 

It was a rare win for Spezia last week and it came in convincing fashion, 4-1 over Torino. Considering their opponents had just been assured of safety (from relegation) midweek, that was an ideal spot for Spezia. In their first ever season in Serie A, Spezia has done better than expected, though they have conceded 70 times. Prior to the last three seasons, that was a number which all but guaranteed relegation in Serie A. The recently promoted side should feel lucky for the likes of Crotone and Parma in this, their maiden voyage in the Italian top flight. Roma has not lost five straight on the road since 2008. They win here. 10* AS Roma 

8* Houston (2:35 ET): While I’m a big believer in teams wanting to exact revenge for a previous sweep (especially if they’re division foes), the results of this series are a bit head-scratching. Texas came in with revenge for a four-game sweep they suffered in Houston last weekend. So you had to figure they’d win one this weekend. But they’ve now won two following yesterday’s 8-4 triumph. Despite coming in as bigger underdogs (on the money line), Saturday was actually an easier win than Friday (which was an extra inning affair). I can’t see the Astros being swept this weekend, so I’ll take them on Sunday.

I believe Houston is definitely the best team in the AL West this season. Just look at the run differential column in the standings. They are +60. No other team in the division has a positive run differential! Going by that metric, the ‘Stros should be running away with things. They’re not. Instead, they are currently 1.5 games back of Oakland, who they just took two of three from earlier this week.

Cristian Javier will get the baseball today for Houston, looking to play stopper. He’s charged with slowing down the Rangers’ red hot slugger Adolis Garcia, whose three home runs in this series have proved to be the difference. Javier is 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA in three previous starts vs. Texas and earned a win against them last weekend by allowing three runs on four hits, over seven innings. He followed that up with another quality start at Oakland. For the season, Javier’s WHIP is 0.977. The Astros have the second highest scoring offense in baseball (scored one fewer run than Boston), so they should do well today against the Rangers’ Mike Foltynewicz, who has not been pitching well of late (7.04 ERA, 1.695 WHIP L3 starts). 8* Houston

8* Arsenal (11:00 ET): A 25-year run of playing European football is still alive for Arsenal, thanks to last week’s stunning come from behind effort against Crystal Palace. I was also certainly happy to see the Gunners prevail as I had them in the “must-win” spot. Tied 1-1 for the majority of the match, things weren’t looking good. But then came TWO stoppage time goals and the 3-1 win allowed Arsenal to keep alive its hopes of finishing 7th in the Premier League table. To do so, they’re going to have to win again this week and hope for both Tottenham (against Leicester City and Everton (vs. Man City) to NOT win. Odds are actually in the Gunners’ favor. 

Brighton & Hove Albion is the side Arsenal must defeat on the final matchweek of the season. I believe that B & HA is going to be the most improved club in the entire EPL, if not all of Europe NEXT season. But for now, they’ve got nothing to play for. They are off their own thrilling win last week, a come from behind effort against league champs Man City. However, note that Brighton was playing with a man advantage for 81 minutes of the match, so it was only a matter of time before they broke through (turns out they didn’t grab the lead until the 76th minute). They were actually down two goals in the 48th minute before mounting their three-goal comeback. 

Brighton certainly can’t count on Arsenal picking up a red card in the 10th minute or rallying from a 2-0 deficit again. Their safety from relegation was achieved a few weeks ago and nothing significant can be achieved from victory here. As for Arsenal, a quarter-century streak is at stake and their recent form (four straight Premier League wins) is difficult to ignore. The Gunners have won nine straight season finales, so history continues to be on their side. It was a 1-0 win over Brighton in the reverse fixture back in late December. 8* Arsenal

7* Felicia Spencer (8:10 ET): This is a three-round fight in the Women’s Featherweight Division between Felicia Spencer (8-2, 2-2 UFC) and Norma Dumont (5-1, 1-1 UFC). This division is somewhat in flux, but as long as it remains you’ve gotta figure that Spencer will be a significant part of it. While she dropped two of her last three fights, those losses were against Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino and Amanda Nunes, the latter a title fight. It’s a significant drop in class here against an opponent that took this fight on late notice. 

Dumont really struggled to make weight at 135 lbs, so she’s moving up a weight class here. She actually missed weight for both of her UFC fights and had another scrapped altogether because she was so far over the limit. Dumont has gone on record that she has no plans to stay at 145lbs, which seems peculiar given her previous issues making weight. Regardless of her future plans, I don’t like here prospects at the present time against one of the UFC’s best female fighters at 145 lbs. 

Spencer has never been stopped in her career and that isn’t about to change here. Being able to last the distance against both Justino and Nunes was incredibly impressive. Spencer will have a tremendous edge in the wrestling department in this fight and Dumont no longer has the size edge she typically relies on when competing at bantamweight. An underdog taking a fight on short notice AND moving up a weight class sounds like a recipe for disaster. Look for Spencer to win this fight rather easily. 7* Felicia Spencer

8* Boston (8:05 ET): The Nets are reportedly attracting plenty of action to win the NBA Finals. With the trio of Durant, Irving and Harden, it’s easy to see why they’d be so attractive to the public. But I am far less sold on this team’s championship prospects - at least in year one together. In the past, we’ve seen “super teams” (like the Heat in 2010) fail to meet their championship goal in their first season together. With this one, the three stars have spent a very limited amount of time on the court together (9 games, 202 total minutes). I’ll take the points with Boston in Game 1. 

The Celtics won the play-in game vs. Washington to become the #1 seed. They controlled most of the way and really took control in the third quarter where they outscored the Wizards 38-26. It ended up being a 118-100 final with Jayson Tatum’s 50 points leading the way. It will obviously be nowhere near that easy in this series, but Boston didn’t even shoot 40% on Tuesday and still won comfortably. It was that kind of mentality that led me to (successfully) take Memphis last night. 

Boston has covered its last three games. Brooklyn is on a 5-0 SU/ATS run. So something will have to give at the betting window tonight. With these teams being division rivals, there’s a sense of familiarity and typically the underdog (especially when getting this many points) is the way to go in such matchups. Now the Celtics did lose all three regular season meetings and are 0-5 SU/ATS L5 trips to Brooklyn. But HC Brad Stevens is 7-1 ATS his L8 first round playoff games and the Celtics are 6-1 ATS L7 as road dogs. 8* Boston

10* Over Celtics/Nets (8:05 ET): The Nets are reportedly attracting plenty of action to win the NBA Finals. With the trio of Durant, Irving and Harden, it’s easy to see why they’d be so attractive to the public. But that trio has played just nine games together all season (only 202 total minutes) and I’m a little bit less sold on them championship prospects than others are. But there is no denying that - no matter who Brooklyn has on the court - they are likely to score lots of points. They finished second in scoring in the regular season with 118.6 points per game. I look for Game 1 vs. Boston to go Over the total. 

The Celtics didn’t shoot particularly well in the play-in win over Washington, but they still scored 118 points, led by Jayson Tatum’s 50. They made slightly less than 40% of their total field goal attempts and were 33% from three-point range. They did put up a ton of threes (45) and I expect a high volume again tonight. Overall, I think the team will shoot better than they did Tuesday night. But they certainly can’t count on Brooklyn going 3 for 21 from three-point range like the Wizards did. There is no doubt that Boston will give up more than 100 points here. 

The three regular season meetings between the teams all stayed Under. One of them did see 230 total points and Brooklyn scored 123 and 121 win the first two. It was a bad shooting night for both teams when they met last month.I am anticipating both teams scoring at least 115 tonight. The Over is 7-3 in Brooklyn’s L10 home games. One of the three Unders came when neither Durant nor Harden suited up. 10* Over Celtics/Nets

8* Under Barnett/Rothwell (6:40 ET): The chances of this fight going the distance seem rather slim and the most likely scenario - a Rothwell win - isn’t likely to take long at all. This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the Heavyweight Division between Ben Rothwell (38-13, 8-7 UFC) and Chris Barnett (21-6), the latter making his UFC debut. Rothwell hasn’t fought in a while (off a loss in October) and it was somewhat of an adventure getting him an opponent here. At the end of the night, he’ll likely be happy that he was matched with such an unproven commodity. Look for this fight to end Under 2.5 rounds. 

Rothwell’s best days are clearly behind him as he’s dropped four of his previous six fights. Three of those losses have come on the heels of his now infamous two-year USADA suspension. That ended in 2019 and he’s 2-3 since. All but one of those fights did go to decision, yet Rothwell still maintains an excellent 89% career finish rate. When he wins, as he’s done 38 times in his MMA career, it’s often by stoppage. Only four of those 38 wins have been by decision. He’s only been stopped six times, the last one coming in 2013. 

Barnett is so unproven and this is such a step up in class for someone who has spent their entire career competing on the regional circuit. So a Rothwell win inside the distance is the most likely outcome. But if Rothwell were to lose, it likely would be via quick knockout. Barnett is on a six-fight win streak, four of those by TKO/KO. This is going to be a slugfest; two huge heavyweights trading “bombs.” It can only last so long. Honestly, Barnett seems like a bit of a questionable signing for the UFC and probably doesn’t have the necessary skill to last long in the promotion. Either Rothwell ends it quickly, or it's simply the end of the line for him. 8* Under Barnett/Rothwell

8* Kansas City (4:10 ET): The revenge factor has now increased for the Royals after dropping Friday’s series opener to the Tigers by a score of 7-5. They were previously swept up in Detroit earlier this month, a result which begat the Tigers shockingly winning 9 of their last 11 games. The Tigers no longer own the worst run differential in all of MLB (Pittsburgh does, after losing 20-1 yday), but they are last among American League clubs at -55. I can’t see KC dropping another one at home to them. 

Last night, the Royals looked to be on their way to exacting some revenge for that prior sweep. They led 5-3 going into the top of the 7th, which is when disaster struck (i.e. a 4-run Detroit inning). It was one swing of the bat, a Miguel Cabrera grand slam, that changed things from 5-3 Royals to 7-5 Tigers. Cabrera homered twice Friday, doubling his season total to four. It should be noted that the Tigers have now won four in a row. That matches a season-high. They are 7-15 in day games though and all “good” streaks must come to an end. 

The Tigers will have Matthew Boyd, arguably their most consistent starter, on the mound Saturday. But he allowed five runs his last time out in what was his worst outing to date. For the third time this season, he’ll be opposed by the Royals’ Brady Singer. Back on 4-24, Boyd was bested by Singer in a 2-1 pitchers’ duel. Boyd then got some revenge earlier this month in another game that was decided by one run. Both games were in Detroit. At the end of the day, this simply boils down to the revenge factor and the fact the Tigers still aren’t very good. 8* Kansas City

8* Cleveland (4:10 ET): The Indians were embarrassed at home last night, losing 10-0 to the Twins. With ace Shane Bieber on the bump Saturday afternoon, you’ve got to like the Tribe’s chances of bouncing back. It has been a massively disappointing start to the season for the Twins, who have the worst win percentage in the American League (.364). I’ve stated before that they’ve been more “unlucky” than “bad,” but that doesn’t mean they’re going to win two in a row at Progressive Field where beating Bieber is certainly a “tall order.” 

Bieber has a 6-3 team start record this season, but the Indians did lose his last start 6-3 up in Seattle. The club has now dropped five of seven following a season-best stretch where they won 9 of 10. Last time out was the first time all season that Bieber failed to go five innings. His number of strikeouts is “down” over the L3 starts, but he still leads all of MLB with 92 on the year. One would have to go back to August of 2019 to find the last time Bieber lost B2B starts. 

Bieber has had the Twins’ number through the years, especially when facing them at home. He’s 3-0 against them in five all-time starts at Progressive Field. He also had a 2.14 ERA (w/ 31 strikeouts) the three times he faced them in 2020. Kenta Maeda, who has been dealing with a groin issue, goes for the Twins Saturday. I don’t think he’s up for this challenge considering he’s allowed 5+ runs in three of his last five starts. Just one time in eight starts has he lasted a full six innings and when he pitched here in Cleveland on 4-27, he gave up three home runs in 7-4 loss. 8* Cleveland

8* Real Sociedad (12:00 ET): A win here and Real Sociedad would clinch 5th place and a spot in next season’s Europa League. Anything less than the full three points and they’d have to “sweat out” results elsewhere involving Real Betis (vs. Celta Vigo) and Villarreal (vs. Real Madrid). Even if the “doomsday scenario” (getting passed by both) were to take place, Sociedad would still have an opportunity to qualify for the Europa League by finishing 7th. But why leave things up to chance. Look for what I feel IS the fifth best side in La Liga to finish in fifth place by picking up a win Saturday over Osasuna. 

Osasuna could finish in the top half of the table with a win here, but that’s unlikely to occur given the opposing side’s motivation. Plus, recent form has not been great with them winning only one time in the last five matches and that was against Cadiz. They’ve been beaten three times in their last five including last week, 2-1, by Atletico Madrid. Real Sociedad has not been a favorable opponent for Osasuna in recent memory as they are unbeaten in the last nine fixtures. Their last loss here at El Sadar was all the way back in May 2012. 

 I’ve come out on the correct end of each of La Real’s last three matches. Three weeks ago, it was a 2-0 win with them against bottom of the table Elche. That was easy as was last week’s 4-1 win over Real Valladolid, another side facing the prospect of being relegated. In between, I faded Sociedad as they were up against Atletico Madrid and they lost that one 2-1. Osasuna falls somewhere in the middle of the spectrum of those last three opponents, but they are much closer to the bottom than they are to the top. Sociedad’s YTD goal differential (+20) is actually ahead of fourth place (and Champions League bound) Sevilla. 8* Real Sociedad

analysis soon

7* Borussia Dortmund (9:30 AM ET): Both sides here have already secured their spots for European football next season, making this final match of the season just about pride. However, it is hard to overlook the recent form of Borussia Dortmund, who is closing this campaign with a flourish. Dortmund’s Champions League hopes looked dead in the water in early April, but an unbeaten run since then has secured them a UCL berth for next season as they can finish no lower than fourth in the Bundesliga table. I think this is easily a top three side in the league and assuming they keep Erling Haaland, next year they will challenge Bayern Munich for first place. 

Bayer Leverkusen’s recent form has not been nearly as inspiring as Dortmund's as they have just one win in the last four fixtures including B2B draws. But it’s still enough to ensure a top six finish in the Bundesliga table, meaning Leverkusen is headed to the Europa League next season. As is the case with Dortmund, Leverkusen has already announced a managerial change for next season as Young Boys’ manager Gerardo Seoane will come over. Ironically, it was Seoane’s Swiss side (Young Boys) that knocked Leverkusen out of this season’s Europa League competition. 

Leverkusen is dealing with some key injuries heading into the final match week of the season. Even at full strength, they couldn’t be trusted to defeat red hot Dortmund, who just picked up some additional hardware by winning their fifth ever German DFB Pokal over RB Leipzig. Dortmund is unbeaten across all competitions (won seven straight) dating back to their Champions League exit in mid-April. During that 7-match win streak, they’ve scored multiple times in every match, including three or more goals five straight times. Only one of the seven were decided by fewer than two goals. 7* Borussia Dortmund

8* Memphis (9:05 ET): That the Grizzlies were able to still win on Wednesday, despite it being a poor offensive night, is probably a good thing. They did jump out to a commanding 38-19 lead after one quarter. But from there, they scored just 62 points over the final three quarters with 28 of those coming in the fourth as they held on for the 100-96 victory. They shot just 7 of 22 from three-point range and were an ugly 54.2% from the FT line. I say it’s “probably a good thing” (that they shot poorly and still won) because it’s highly unlikely they’ll shoot that poorly again tonight vs. Golden State. 

The Warriors obviously lost on Wednesday, 103-100 to the Lakers, thus setting up this winner take all game. It wasn’t a particularly great shooting game for Golden State either on Wednesday, outside of Steph Curry. Curry had 37 points on 12 of 23 attempts, including 6 of 9 from three. But he had only one teammate score more than 10 points. Yes, it’s likely that Golden State’s “other players” will contribute more now that they’re at home. But might Curry be a different story? Everyone remembers him dropping 46 on the Grizz in Sunday’s regular season finale. But it was somewhat inefficient in doing so, needing 36 shots and he took a season-high 22 3PA. 

Memphis isn’t going to shoot as poorly tonight as they did Sunday nor as poorly as they did on Wednesday. They average 116.6 PPG on the road, which is significantly more than they average at home (109.8). I think most people are going to see Steph Curry and the Warriors laying short number at home and jump all over it. So the Warriors will be a very “public play” tonight (especially with this being the lone game). But I see these teams as being pretty even and the Grizzlies actually posted the higher offensive efficiency rating in the regular season. Memphis is 9-2 ATS L11 as a dog. 8* Memphis

10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors (9:05 ET): That the Grizzlies were able to still win on Wednesday, despite it being a poor offensive night, is probably a good thing. They did jump out to a commanding 38-19 lead after one quarter. But from there, they scored just 62 points over the final three quarters with 28 of those coming in the fourth as they held on for the 100-96 victory. They shot just 7 of 22 from three-point range and were an ugly 54.2% from the FT line. I say it’s “probably a good thing” (that they shot poorly and still won) because it’s highly unlikely they’ll shoot that poorly again tonight vs. Golden State. 

At the same time, the Grizzlies can’t count on the opposition shooting 35.1% again like the Spurs did Wednesday. San Antonio made just eight three-pointers and was actually just 26 of 75 on two-point attempts, which works out to a horrendous 34.6%. I can’t see a Steph Curry-led team shooting that poorly, especially considering Curry went for 46 when these teams just met on Sunday. As a team, the Warriors shot almost 50% and made 15 three-pointers. Curry didn’t get much help in Wednesday’s loss to the Lakers, but LA is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, so I wasn’t surprised about that. 

So look for BOTH teams to improve upon their respective shooting efforts from Wednesday night. All three regular season meetings between these teams did stay Under, but none featured less than 214 total points and Memphis shot poorly in two of the games. Sunday, they were 43.5% overall and 6 of 25 (24%) from 3-point range. They’ll easily best those numbers here. Memphis actually averages more PPG on the road (116.6) than at home (109.8) and Golden State averages far more at home (116.4) than on the road (110.7). So expect it to be a pretty-high scoring game Friday night. 10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors

10* Kansas City (8:10 ET): The Royals have revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered up in the Motor City earlier this month. The Tigers, shockingly, have now won 8 of 10 following another sweep as they won all three games in Seattle earlier this week. But they still have the worst run differential in all of baseball at -57 and I just can’t see them winning a fourth straight game overall, or beating the same opponent four times in a row for that matter. Expect KC to get its revenge here in the series opener. 

The Royals come into this series with some “momentum” (hate that word) of their own as they have won four of five and just took both games vs. Milwaukee. Those two were at home and what’s impressive about the wins is they beat Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, who are the Brew Crew’s two top starting pitchers. It should be noted that all seven times the Royals have faced the Tigers this season, the game has been in Detroit. In the first series, they took three of four. Other than Seattle earlier this week, Detroit has swept two other teams this year. Following each prior sweep, they lost the next series opener. 

The Tigers allowed only three runs in the entire series vs. Seattle, but expect them to give up more than that tonight with Jose Urena starting. Urena has managed to last just seven total innings in his last two starts combined and he gave up four runs in 2 ⅔ innings his last outing. He also took a liner off his leg, so he may not be 100 percent here. The Royals go w/ Mike Minor, who was excellent in his last appearance, allowing just one run and two hits in a 5-1 win (+175) over the White Sox. The team’s bullpen has also been outstanding of late, giving up just three runs in its last 25 innings of work. Detroit is just 8-20 following an off-day. 10* Kansas City

10* Indiana (8:05 ET): Four games into the NBA’s new “Play In Tournament,” the home team has yet to lose. However, despite the way the regular season series went down, I believe Indiana has a great shot at changing that here against Washington. Yes, the Wizards won all three regular season meetings and had a strong close to their regular season. But Indiana has now covered five straight games and obviously looked far more impressive Tuesday night. Take the points in this one. 

The Wizards are 15-6 their L21 games, but picked a poor time to play their worst game in over a month. They lost by 18 in Boston Tuesday, a game which could have gotten them into the playoffs as the 7-seed. Now they get a second try and can be the 8-seed, but despite the strong finish to the regular season, I have my concerns. This is the worst defensive team in the entire NBA, at least in terms of points allowed per game. They also have a negative net efficiency rating as they are outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Based on that, I’m not sure they should be the favorites tonight, even with the home court advantage. 

Indiana has a positive net efficiency rating and obviously looked great on Tuesday, shooting 55.2% from the field on their way to an easy 144-117 beatdown of Charlotte. While they did lose every regular season matchup with the Wizards, the Pacers still ended up averaging 132.3 points in the three games. Now the flip side of that is they obviously played terrible defense. But I have no doubt that they will score a ton of points tonight. Two of the three regular season losses were close, one of them went to OT. Indiana actually has a better record on the road (21-15 SU) than at home. 10* Indiana

8* Run Line Miami (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the +1.5 with the Marlins. Miami is the lone team in the NL East to have a positive run differential right now (+2) and seeing as how they just beat the Phillies 3-1 last night, I’ll gladly take them here with an added run and a half “in my back pocket.” I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they won “outright” as a big night at the plate is probably overdue following four straight games with three or fewer runs. 

Starting tonight’s finale for Miami will be Sandy Alcantara, who was roughed up his last time out. It was the shortest start of his career (1 ⅓ innings) and he gave up eight runs on seven hits. But it should be noted that it was against the Dodgers. Alcantara’s previous four starts all saw him allow 2 ER or less. Three of those saw him go six innings or longer. So chalk up the last start as an aberration against a very good team. Alcantara is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in six previous starts vs. Philadelphia, so that’s another reason to expect a bounce back effort. 

The Phillies counter with Vince Velasquez, who has allowed just one run in each of his L3 starts. But consistency has always been an issue for Velasquez and the Marlins haven’t been his favorite opponent in past years. In 17 career starts against them, Velasquez has a 4.88 ERA and he’s just 4-4. In his five starts this season, Velasquez has made it a full six innings only one time and he’s allowed at least one HR in every start (7 total). Again, Miami seems likely to break out at the plate and they are the better team here. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

10* Houston (3:37 ET): Personally, I believe it is inarguable that Houston is better than Oakland. They are up 6-3 in the season series and the disparity in run differential has gotten quite ridiculous, especially when you consider that the A’s are the team in first place. Following the lopsided 8-1 win on Wednesday night, the Astros have a +62 run differential on the season. That’s second best in all of MLB. On the other hand, the A’s have a -14 YTD run differential, which makes you question how they got to 26-18. I like the Astros to take the series’ rubber match Thursday afternoon. 

Houston has won seven of eight, the only loss coming in the opener of this series. As mentioned above, they dominated last night’s game. Not only did it end up being 8-1, but they had a 15-4 edge in hits as well. Now they get their third look of the season at Cole Irvin. The southpaw has been very effective for the A’s over his L6 starts (1.89 ERA), but he was rocked both previous times he faced Houston. Irvin allowed eight runs in 9 ⅔ innings and Oakland lost both games, by scores of 9-1 and 6-2. In games where they are facing a LH starter, the Astros’ batting average is .286. 

Luis Garcia will be on the mound today for Houston. He finally got a win his last time out after holding Texas to just one run in five innings. His 1-5 TSR is very misleading when you consider he has not allowed more than 3 ER in any of the six starts. Garcia has faced Oakland only one time in his career and that was last September when he blanked them over five innings and allowed just one hit. That this will be the Astros’ third time seeing Irvin this season while it’s the first the A’s have faced Garcia is a big edge to the road team, who is the superior ballclub anyway. 10* Houston