8* Washington (8:30 ET): Due in large part to their opening night victory over the Patriots, a case can be made that Kansas City has played better than anybody through three weeks. They're 3-0 straight up and against the spread following last week's 24-10 win over the Chargers. However, a review of the three game reveals they haven't been necessarily as dominant as you might think. They, of course, trailed New England before a 4Q explosion. They were also tied w/ the Eagles in the 4Q and outgained in the game for that matter. Three first half interceptions from Philip Rivers set them up nicely last week, but even then it was just a 17-10 game before RB Kareem Hunt ripped off a late TD. So, again, this has not been the dominant 3-0 start that you may have been led to believe. 

Washington, meanwhile, is coming off an eye-popping win over Oakland Sunday night. You have to be careful about overreacting to one, national TV performance, but taking this many points the Skins look like a value. They held the Raiders to 128 yards last week while gaining 472 themselves. It was certainly a more dominant performance than anything the Chiefs have done to date. It was also the 'Skins' second consecutive win as the week prior they went to LA and beat an improved Rams team 27-20. While QB Kirk Cousins' value continues to be debated, people may not realize just how good this Redskins' offense has been the L2 years. They ranked third in efficiency and yards in 2016, trailing only Atlanta and New Orleans. Back to back 27-point efforts make it look like it could be a similar story this year. 

Kansas City has some pretty significant injury issues coming into this contest, in all three phases of the game no less. On defense, Dee Ford (back) has already been ruled out. Along the offensive line, they may be w/o Eric Fisher. Special teams has even taken a significant hit w/ kicker Cairo Santos landing on the IR. Washington isn't 100%, but their injuries are less noteworthy. Something that needs to be mentioned here is that the Redskins defense has yet to concede 100 yds rushing in any game this year. In fact, they're allowing an average of just 61 YPG over land! So Kareem Hunt could be in store for his toughest day as a pro. These teams have met six times since the Redskins won the Super Bowl back in '91. Incredibly, the Chiefs have won and covered all six times. I'll call for at least the latter half of that trend to come to an end Monday night. Take the points as the Redskins are 16-8 ATS L24 as underdogs, including 5-1 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts. 8* Washington

10* Oakland (4:25 ET): Coming into the year, I wasn't as high on either of these teams as most were. So when both started 2-0 SU, I began to question my own projections. But, lo and behold, they both lost SU as short road favorites last week. Denver lost at Buffalo, 26-16, despite an edge in total yds (366-272). Oakland was rather humiliated in the Sunday Night Game, losing at Washington 27-10 w/ perhaps its worst offensive effort of the Derek Carr era (gained only 128 total yds!). Because the Raiders played in primetime, they're the team the public was more likely to "turn against" this week and judging by the line movement, that intuition has already been confirmed. But I don't think the Silver and Black are anywhere near as bad as they looked in D.C. and the Broncos were the team I was lower on coming into the year. Therefore, I'll take the points. 

For many years, this AFC West rivalry was dominated by Denver. They've won and covered 9 of the past 11 meetings, although it was a split LY as the Raiders were "reborn" and finished the regular season 12-4 SU. Each team won at home in '16, though the Broncos win came in Week 17 when Oakland had lost Carr for the year, which cost them the division. I suspect - as is often the case w/ these division rivalries - that things will now begin to turn. Oakland is the team on the rise while Denver is a team that's been carried by its defense each of the L2 years (including a Super Bowl win). That defense isn't likely to be as good this year and the offense, led by QB Trevor Siemien, simply isn't up to par.

Denver's defense has been great against the run so far, but has slipped defending the pass and that's where I look for Carr to exploit them Sunday. Both teams appeared to have offensive line issues last week, but in the case of the Raiders, that unit is nowhere near as bad as it looked last week. Oakland is 4-1 SU and ATS as a road underdog of thre points or less, including the win over Tennessee back in Week 1. Expect more of an emphasis on the run game this week after gaining just 32 yards on 13 carries last week. Carr should obviously play better as well, even against a better defense. I just feel that the better team is getting points in this one. 10* Oakland

8* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): Oh, these Chargers. A team I tabbed to be the "most improved" this season has instead started 0-3! They now officially qualify as my biggest disappointment as I actually projected them to be 3-0 SU at this point. But in what many will feel is a bit of "curious handicapping," oddsmakers have them as slight favorites over a Philadelphia team that has looked good to this point (2-1), though it needed a 61-yard FG on the game's final play to skirt by the winless Giants last week. I had the Eagles back in Week 1 when they went into Washington and won and do expect this team to be in the playoff hunt all year long, if not win the NFC East. But this is the proverbial trap game for them, a rare trip out West, where most will expect them to win.

The Chargers do not have a bad roster by any means. As someone who has watched the team pretty closely these last two seasons, I can tell you that there main two problems are injuries and an inability to win close games. Theoretically, luck in both of those departments should "even out" over time. It just hasn't happened yet for the Bolts. Since the start of last year, they are an amazing 2-10 straight up in games decided by seven points or less. The injury bug has hit them in some key areas again this year. Yet, they were two missed field goals (each on the final play) away from starting 2-0 this year and despite a -3 turnover margin last week, were still within seven points of the unbeaten Chiefs before Kareem Hunt ripped off a "garbage time" touchdown to put things out of reach. 

The Chargers are in danger of becoming irrelevent less than one month into their return to LA. They can't possibly lose a third consecutive home game, right? QB Philip Rivers was responsible for all three turnovers last week, tossing three INT's in one half for the first time in his entire career. You have to imagine he'll be play a lot better here. Note that before last week, the Eagles had NEVER won a game w/ Carson Wentz starting at QB where they gave up more than 20 points. They allowed 21 and as mentioned above, needed a 61 yard field goal for the win, at home. Philly has had its own problems winning close games since Wentz became the starter last year. Something that should be noted from last week is though the Giants made it into the red zone five times, twice they turned it over on downs. I look for the Chargers' offense to surprise and have its best game of the season here and the team to win as a result! 8* LA Chargers

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The "Battle of Ohio" may have hit its official nadir here as both the Bengals and Browns come in at 0-3 SU. Cincinnati is just a short road favorite, but I'm going to back ... the Browwwwwns? Yes, you read that correctly. I thought it ludicrous that Cleveland was a road favorite (ever so slight) at Indianapolis last week. So I was not surprised to see them lose there, 31-28 (trailed by as many as 21). Meanwhile, I wasn't surprised to see the Bengals give the Packers a game in Green Bay either as I took them as large dogs and watched them race out to a comfortable 21-7 halftime lead. But while they still managed to cover for me, they ended up losing SU - in overtime - 27-24. I want no part of an 0-3 team averaging only 11 PPG, laying points on the road.

There are numerous signs pointing to Cleveland as the right side here. First off, strange as this may seem, they have actually outgained opponents this year. That might surprise you considering the Browns are the ONLY team in the league not to have led a single time in the first three weeks of the season. But they played Pittsburgh tough here at home in Week 1 and may have actually won that game were it not for a blocked punt being returned for a touchdown on the opening drive. Also, take two winless teams at this point of the season and the underdog has covered at 64% rate (46-26 ATS). Cleveland is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five meetings w/ Cincy, and won just one of the last seven (Thurs night game in Cincy in '14). But now that the Bengals aren't very good anymore, look for this AFC North rivalry to start evening out some, at least at the pay window.

Much has been made of the Bengals changing offensive coordinators prior to the last game. Bill Lazor is now calling the plays and while, on the surface, things looked a lot better last week, let's not forget the team also benefited from a pick-six of Aaron Rodgers. So in two games, the offense has scored a total of two touchdowns, both in the first half last week. Andy Dalton and company were totally shut down in the 2H LW by the Packers. Dalton will be w/o both WR John Ross (#1 DC) and TE Tyler Eifert in this game. So expect the Bengals offense to resemble the disappointing unit we saw for most of last year and the first two weeks of this season. The offensive line here has also completely fallen apart. The Browns have had a "helping hand" in that by signing away Kevin Zeitler in the offseason. Cincy is also dealing with multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball. For Cleveland, if #1 overall draft choice Myles Garrett could finally get onto the field, that would be huge. But regardless, I'm taking the points here. 8* Cleveland

Analysis

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans pushed around the Seahawks last week, winning 33-27 in a game where they were actually favored. While a win such as that often times can lead to a letdown the following week, I'm going to say that won't happen here. It's not only that I was that impressed by Tennessee (who has been favored in all three games), but this is just as much a play AGAINST Houston. Sure, the Texans very nearly stunned the Patriots last week (in Foxboro!), losing only 36-33 as double digits dogs (and the Pats needed a late Tom Brady TD just to pull out the win). But that result, while still a loss, probably has Houston and the public thinking they are better than they actually are. Let us not forget that the Texans' offense is still a major work in progress w/ a rookie QB (DeShaun Watson) at the helm. In the first two games, they scored all of 20 points.

Meanwhile, the Tennessee offense is off B2B 30+ point performances. They ran all over what was thought to be an excellent Seattle defensive front last week, gaining 195 yards on 5.6 YPC! It was a similar story the week prior at Jacksonville (who also has a good defense). Now I know Houston's defense led the league in yards allowed last year (even w/o JJ Watt), but I'm not as high on them as I am the last two defenses the Titans have faced. Tennessee is top five right now in yards per game offensively and while they're not as lethal as the Patriots, they're certainly head and shoulders above the first two offenses Houston faced this year, those belonging to Jacksonville and Cincinnati. In terms of the respective offensive lines, Tennessee has a big edge here and Houston is still w/o LT Duane Brown (holdout). Watson threw for less than 100 yds against Cincinnati and last week's numbers were a byproduct of an interesting approach by a bad New England defense that sought to contain Watson and not let him out of the pocket. An ability to break long runs (like he did vs. Cincy) is key to Watson's game, but it's also not a sustainable way to succeed in this league.

Houston has had Tennessee's number the last several years in this AFC South rivalry. They've won 9 of the previous 12 meetings straight up, while going 10-2 ATS. One of the losses came in a meaningless regular season finale last year. But this is set to be the Titans' division for the next couple of years and thus the rivalry should start to tilt their way. Let's not forget how lucky Houston was to win the division last season. Despite going 9-7 SU, they were actually outscored by 49 points! All but one win (Week 1!) was by a TD or less. Last week's game at New England seemed like mismatch on paper, but it was actually a good spot to back the Texans as they had three extra days to prepare coming off a Thursday game. The Titans are the better team now and I expect them to show that Sunday. 8* Tennessee

8* LA Rams (1:00 ET): The Rams look to be a much improved team in 2017 and have a major advantage coming into this game w/ Dallas in that they played Thursday night last week while Dallas is off the Monday nighter. Though the Rams failed to cover against the 49ers, a brutal beat which saw them win only 41-39 as three-point favorites (led 41-26 w/ just over five minutes to go), there is no denying they were - clearly - the better team last Thursday (led the entirety of the game). It's an obvious step up in class this week, but note that this will actually be the 1st time all season that the Rams have been underdogs! Now that they're a better team, look for them to start to improve upon a rather ugly 5-12-2 ATS record since the start of last season. Take the points. 

The Rams' improvement begins w/ an offense that has topped 40 points twice already. Last year, they had the league's worst offense, topping 21 points only twice and 28 just ONCE! Credit 1st year HC Sean McVay, a talented playcaller, for the improvement we've seen out of Jared Goff in his second season. It also helps that Goff is benefiting from an improved run game and a better set of receivers than he had last year. On the other side of the ball, look for DC Wade Phillips to work his magic. All things considered, I've actually been a bit disappointed in this group so far, especially last week when they allowed the 49ers to sneak in through the proverbial "back door." But aside from letting Washington run for 200+ yards and the 49ers throw for 300+ yards, the overall number still look good. Phillips is notorious for forcing opposing offenses to run and that's what the Cowboys are going to try and do here anyway. I expect the Rams to be ready. 

Dallas won in Arizona Monday night, 28-17 (-3), but was outgained 332-273. It was the second straight week that their offense failed to break the 300-yard barrier, which is pretty shocking. Like the Rams, they've been favored in every game thus far. Notoriously though, America's Team has not performed well in the chalk role for HC Jason Garrett. As for the Cowboys defense, remember they gave up 42 points to Trevor Siemien two weeks ago. This unit overachieved last year and should come back "down to Earth" in 2017. An outright win by the dog here would not surprise me. 8* LA Rams

8* UNLV (10:30 ET): Because of that loss (as 45-pt favorites!) to FCS Howard, there's likely to be significant value on UNLV moving forward. Yes, that season opening loss was embarrassing. In fact, going by the pointspread, it was the biggest upset in College Football history. But the Rebels quickly bounced back w/ an impressive 44-16 win at Idaho (were 5-pt underdogs). Following a bye week, they went into "The Horseshoe" in Columbus last Saturday and covered against Ohio State, albeit as massive 39-pt dogs (lost 54-21). In terms of a week to week drop in class of opponent, you won't find many (if any?) situations quite like this on the 2017 CFB schedule as the Rebels go from facing a top 10 team on the road to a bottom 10 team at home. Lay the points! 

San Jose State is absolutely dreadful. Granted, with a new coaching staff, they were expected to "take their lumps" in 2017. I actually took them in the season opener, at home against an overrated USF team, and thanks to the Spartans jumping out to an early lead, they covered for me as 22-pt dogs (still lost 42-22). They followed w/ a 34-13 win over FCS school Cal Poly. Since then, it's been a string of ugly results for 1st year HC Brent Brennan: 56-0 at Texas, 54-16 at Utah and 61-10 last week at home to Utah State. Granted, you had two road games there against Power 5 foes, but against the spread SJSU is 0-3 ATS in those games. Brennan is a 1st time HC and both the OC and DC are first time coordinators. I think it's fair to label this as the worst team in the Mountain West this year. Turnovers haven't helped matters either as the Spartans have given it away 17 times already, including 10 in the last two games. 

San Jose State's defense is giving up a ghastly 565 yards per game thus far and I don't care what the schedule has been, that's awful. UNLV has a good offense (nine starters back from LY) and put up 40+ points in each of the first two games. So I look for them to move the ball "at will" in this one. Also of interest is that this is a huge revenge game for the Rebels. They have not beaten SJSU since 1994. That's seven straight losses including each of the last four seasons. Last year, they were three-point favorites on the road and fell 30-24. Two years ago here in Vegas, they lost in overtime as a three-point dog. This is their year to exercise all those demons. San Jose State is just 1-17 straight up as an underdog the L3 seasons and I see this being a "good, old fashioned" beatdown. 8* UNLV

8* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): Clemson comes in ranked #2 in the country this week and they probably have a legit argument to be #1, not just because they beat #1 Alabama in the CFP Championship Game LY, but also due to to a pair of high profile wins this year over Auburn and Louisville (two Top 25 teams). This week finds the Tigers playing a third ranked foe in five weeks, again on the road, and eventually Dabo Swinney's luck is bound to run out. While Clemson is a perfect 11-0 SU as a road favorite the L3 seasons, they've covered the spread in only five of those games. Last week's 34-7 win over Boston College was a lot closer than the score looks as it was a 7-7 game entering the fourth quarter. This is a rematch of LY's ACC Championship Game where an inferior Va Tech team was able to stay within the 10-point spread (lost 42-35). Take the points in Blacksburg Saturday night.

Virginia Tech also comes in at 4-0 SU and is ranked #12 in the country. This is a team that won 10 games LY for Justin Fuente, who was in his first year trying to fill the shoes of the legendary Frank Beamer. One could say that Fuente's team arrived a "year ahead of schedule," but even having to replace their starting QB and top WR, the Hokies have not missed a beat so far in 2017. They started the season w/ an impressive 24-17 win here at home over West Virginia. Since then, it's been all blowouts as they've outscored three opponents 129-17 w/ a pair of shutouts. The offense might still be a bit of a work in progress, but it is averaging 40.0 PPG. But what I really like about this team is the defense (6th in PPG allowed) and special teams, both of which were always great in the Beamer years. (Fuente smartly retained longtime DC Bud Foster). 

Including LY's ACC Title Game, Clemson has now beaten Va Tech four straight times. Don't think that fact will be lost on the Hokies' coaching staff. Impressive as they've looked so far, remember the Tigers did have to replace DeShaun Watson, Wayne Gallman and Mike Williams this year. They were 6-1 SU in close games a year ago (those decided by 7 pts or less) after a 3-1 SU mark in them the year prior. Eventually, I feel one of these games has to go against them. Playing a third ranked foe in five weeks can catch up w/ a team, even one this talented. They are dealing with some injuries in their secondary and those could catch up with them here against a Va Tech offense that likes to push the tempo. Hokies QB Joshua Jackson is a dual threat w/ an 11-1 TD-INT ratio. Va Tech is 49-17 SU at home the L11 seasons and this will be only the EIGHTH time during that stretch that they will be the dog! ESPN Gameday will be in Blacksburg Saturday and this will be Clemson's first time visiting Lane Stadium since 2011. 8* Virginia Tech

10* South Alabama (7:00 ET): Both of these teams hurt me last Saturday. South Alabama, I was on, and they lost a heartbreaker in double OT (at home) to Idaho. It was a strange game w/ TWO weather delays, one lasting almost 2 1/2 hours, and the game took nearly seven hours to complete. Still, the Jaguars appeared in position to win as they led 20-13 w/ 90 seconds to go and Idaho was 61 yds away from the end zone. But the defense allowed a game-tying TD w/ just 13 seconds left on the clock and from there, it was more heartbreak. As for La Tech, they surprisingly competed at South Carolina, losing only 17-16 as 9.5-pt underdogs. Why that surprised me wasn't just the fact I was on USC. La Tech was coming off an emotional win their conference opener, an upset of C-USA favorite Western Kentucky the week prior. I'm taking the points here. 

Changes have been made in Mobile as a result of last week's loss. Offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent was shown the door by HC Joey Jones, who cited "expressed concern about our current status and what is best for our program moving forward." This was Vincent's third year on the job and his offenses never were able to average more than 25.5 PPG. Richard Owens, formerly the O-line coach, takes over. However, USA's real problem lies w/ the pointspread as they're now just 13-28-1 ATS the L4 seasons. That includes 5-12-1 since the start of last year. But, as underdogs, it's a lot easier to like them. Remember that this team upset both Mississippi State and San Diego State last year (lost outright three times as a favorite). They're a pretty respectable 4-7 SU in non-conf roadies since joining the Sun Belt in 2012. The big story coming out of Mobile this week centers around the QB position. Both Cole Garvin and Dallas Davis have gotten hurt this year, but this week it looks as if Garvin will get the nod. Davis injured his shoulder last week, but note that it was Garvin who won the job in the summer before getting hurt in the Oklahoma State game. Regardless, it will be nice to lean on a running game that averages 153 YPG, led by senior RB Xavier Johnson.

Perhaps I should have respected La Tech more last week. Or maybe, them jumping out to a 13-0 lead on South Carolina had something to do w/ the fact the Gamecocks were w/o their top playmaker, WR Deebo Samuel. Anyway, after playing B2B one-point games as underdogs, I look for this to be a bit of a letdown spot for the Bulldogs. In fact, this will be the first time La Tech has been favored over a FBS foe this year! Like South Alabama, they've played two power five foes and then there was the game at WKU. Though it was close last week in Columbia, La Tech was outgained 338-261. If I were them, I'd be concerned about a rush D that has allowed at least 133 yds in every game thus far. Especially considering USA just went for 244 on the ground last week. 10* South Alabama

8* Fla Atlantic (7:00 ET): Coming into the year, I said that Lane Kiffin was stepping into a pretty good situation here in Boca Raton. He was inherting the most experienced team in the country and all key metrics were pointing up after the Owls finished 2016 a disappointing 3-9 SU for predecessor Charlie Partridge. So that being said, I've been a little bit disappointed in the team starting out just 1-3 SU, though all three losses have come in the underdog role. I'd say the opener against Navy, which took place here at home (and I had them) was the most disappointing game of the bunch as FAU lost 42-19 as 8.5-pt dogs. Here though is a chance to make a big statement in the C-USA opener. They are catching Middle Tennessee at a most opportune time as the Blue Raiders are w/o QB Brent Stockstill and probably their top WR Richie James as well. I'll lay the short number.

The Stockstill-James combo, when healthy, is one of the best in the country. But w/ one out, or possibly both, the Blue Raiders' offense certainly looks a lot different. Granted, w/o either they were still able to beat Bowling Green last week (even w/ a -3 TO differential!), 24-13 as a touchdown choice. But that was at home and BG is absolutely dreadful. The FAU defense hasn't exactly faced the top passing attacks in the nation so far, but I don't see MTSU backup QB John Urzua throwing for another 290 yds like he did last week. Note that in his first start, which was on the road at Minnesota, Urzua threw for only 135 yards and had two interceptions. Now, FAU is not Minnesota. But the final score of that game two weeks ago was 34-3. The Blue Raiders' defense has failed to force a turnover in three of four games this year. It's been confirmed that Stockstill is out here and as for James (program's all-time leading receiver) he's listed as questionable w/ a high ankle sprain. Bottom line is this is a banged up team right now.

This is a huge game for Florida Atlantic, not just b/c Kiffin wants to win the conference opener, but also because the Owls have lost NINE straight times to the Blue Raiders by an average of 12 PPG. Last year was a somewhat insane 77-56 game in Murfreesboro, the regular season finale. By that point, FAU had nothing to play for w/ a lame-duck head coach. Things are a lot different this time around. Before LY, the previous three meetings were all decided by seven points or less, one in overtime and another by one point. The Owls went just 1-4 SU in games decided by three points or less LY and lost another one of those LW at Buffalo, 34-31. But MTSU is just 1-6 SU the L3 seasons in games where the spread is three points or less. It looks like the so-called "sharp money" agrees w/ my assessment here as despite three-quarters of the tickets being written on the dog, the line has moved up to a field goal as of this writing. 8* Fla Atlantic

8* Connecticut (4:00 ET): Needless to say, Randy Edsall's homecoming to Storrs has not been the rosy return the faithful had envisioned. Edsall coached here from 1999-2010, culminating in a Fiesta Bowl appearance that final season. Maryland didn't work out for the coach and three games into his return here, there's a long way to go. Going back to last season, the Huskies have now failed to cover 11 of their last 15 games (w/ one push). That's obviously not all Edsall's fault, but the team is 0-3 ATS this year including a pretty embarrassing home loss to East Carolina on Sunday, 41-38 as five-point chalk. I realize it's a short week here against a heavily favored opponent, but this is a good spot to back a desperate team getting a ton of points. 

SMU has been the exact opposite of UConn at the pay window as they're 4-0 ATS. They have lost a game, 56-36 at TCU, as 22-pt dogs. Given what the Horned Frogs did last week to Oklahoma State and that the Mustangs actually led that game early, it's certainly an excusable loss. They rebounded by blowing out Arkansas State last week, 44-21 (-3), here in Dallas. HC Chad Morris has been as good as advertised when it comes to turning this offense around, but this has all the makings of a lookahead spot. Next week, the Ponies will play at Houston in a key AAC West matchup. This is also somewhat uncharted territory as far as the pointspread is concerned. In Morris' first two years here, the Mustangs were favored a total of five times. Two of those were against FCS teams and two others were against North Texas. They've been favored three times already this year (not counting this game), one of them again vs. the Mean Green and another vs. a FCS team (SF Austin). Other than North Texas, SMU has never been favored by more than five points against any FBS team under Morris. 

UConn has lost the last two meetings vs. SMU and likely remembers the last one as they suffered the indignity of losing to an 0-11 SU team at home. It's amazing how far SMU has come since that time. This year, it's definitely helped the Mustangs that they've won the turnover battle in all four games. Not saying that they aren't much improved, but it certainly helps when every opponent turns it over multiple times. Defensively, the Mustangs remain a work in progress (to say the least) as they're giving up 513 YPG to FBS foes. That certainly makes it difficult to cover large spreads such as this. The silver lining in UConn's loss LW is that they put up nearly 600 total yds of offense. They even gained 434 in the 38-18 loss at a good Virginia team. 8* Connecticut

8* Indiana (3:30 ET): Penn State's streak of 13 consecutive ATS victories (12-1 SU) was snapped last week in a narrow escape against Iowa. They may have outgained the Hawkeyes 579-293 (w/ 29-11 edge in first downs!), but it took a TD on the final play just to pull out the SU win. While it's easy to take a look at that box score and say the game "shouldn't" have been so close, I expect the Nittany Lions to struggle against the pointspread moving forward. They caught the nation by surprise w/ LY's run that netted them the Big 10 Championship, but needless to say, they won't be sneaking up on any opponent this season. Only three times in LY's run were they DD favorites. This game makes it five straight times being DD chalk to open 2017. The spreads continue to catch up w/ the Nittany Lions here as Top 10 teams off a non-cover the previous week are just 44.6% ATS, if at home. 

Indiana started its year w/ a game at home against Ohio State. Though they ultimately lost and failed to cover (49-21 as 20.5-pt underdogs), that final score was a little misleading. They led at halftime and midway through the third quarter. QB Lagow threw for over 400 yds and first downs were virtually even for the game. While calling the result a "moral victory" might be debatable, there's no question that a 34-17 win at Virginia continues to look more and more impressive, especially considering what the Cavaliers just did in Boise last week. A home game vs. FIU was cancelled (Hurricane Irma) and then last week the Hoosiers routed Georgia Southern, 52-17, thanks to 282 yards rushing.

IU might be 1-19 all-time against Penn State, including 0-9 here in State College. But there have been some extenuating circumstances each of the last two years. The 2015 meeting here in Happy Valley, a 29-6 final, saw the Hoosiers enter in w/o their starting QB and RB. Then, last year, was a misleading 45-31 final. Indiana led 24-14 in the third quarter and then 31-28 early in the 4Q, only for the bottom to drop out. Two Hoosiers turnovers directly led to 10 PSU points. The Nittany Lions didn't even need to gain a single yard to kick a field goal and then w/ 38 seconds left, there was a fumble return for a TD. Very disappointing loss considering IU outgained the Nittany Lions 454-409 (-3 TO margin). An X-factor for this matchup comes by way of special teams. J-Shun Harris ranks third nationally, averaging 26.1 yards per punt return and has already scored two touchdowns. Look for the underdog to cover here. 8* Indiana

8* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Offshore books are offering a prop on the first SEC head coach to be fired and all of them have Tennessee's Butch Jones as the most likely to be canned. Certainly, a less than inspiring 17-13 win over UMass last week (as 28-pt favorites!) did his tenure no favors, particularly coming off the brutal 26-20 loss to Florida. But, from the "glass is half-full department," I'll point out that the Vols are that one hail mary away from being a 4-0 SU team. I concede that Jones' teams have consistently underachieved, but snapping a 26-game losing streak to Top 10 foes this week would go a LONG way in Jones getting back in the good graces of the boosters. That last UT win over a Top 10 team came against Georgia, back in '06. UGA is the opponent this week and while I won't say the Vols pull the upset, I like them plus the points here in an excellent "buy low" spot. 

Georgia, meanwhile, finds itself in virtually the same situation their opponent was in last week. Mississippi State arrived in Athens last Saturday night, fresh off a 37-7 beatdown of LSU. The tables were turned however as UGA handed them a beatdown, 31-3. Now its these Bulldogs that have to somehow find a way to deliver a second straight outstanding effort. Like Miss State, they'll have to do it on the road, but the situation differs here in that UGA is laying points. Something that you may need to be reminded of is that Kirby Smart's team is still working w/ a backup QB. True frosh Jake Fromm has led victories over Miss State and Notre Dame thus far, but the Georgia passing attack has yet to go for more than 201 yards in any game. Eventually, that will catch up w/ them, unless Fromm takes the proverbial "next step." Remember that it took a late FG to beat Notre Dame by just a single point in the team's first road game. 

Calling for a close game here is by no means "crazy." In fact, the last six meetings have all been decided by eight points or less while three of the last four have been decided by three points or less. Last year, Tennessee won on a 43-yard Hail Mary on the final play. Obviously, Georgia will be out for revenge, but sometimes that's easier said that done. The Bulldogs defense looked very good last week and has been that way all season, for that matter. But Tennessee happens to have the SEC's leading rusher, John Kelly, who averages 112.5 YPG. Georgia is just 3-6 ATS off its previous nine SEC victories while Tennessee is 4-2 ATS the L6 times it has been a dog, plus 7-3 ATS the L10 times it has taken on an opponent w/ a winning record. Note that when the "lookahead line" for this game was released over the summer, the Vols were 1-pt favorites. There's obviously been a massive swing in perception since that time. 8* Tennessee

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): Laying two scores in a conference game might seem like a challenging spot, especially when your opponent is rested, but Wisconsin is off a bye here as well. One of the top 10 teams in America, the Badgers should cruise here in Madison. Northwestern was expected to maybe be the Badgers' top challenger in the Big 10 West this season, but a 41-17 loss at Duke tempered any enthusiasm in Evanston. Wisky definitely won't take this game lightly as N'western upset them two years ago in Madison. Last year's 21-7 win actually snapped a two-game losing streak in the series. The Badgers rank in the top 17 in efficiency on both offense and defense while outscoring their first three opponents by 33 PPG and outgaining them by 263 YPG. They'll be too much for N'western in this early kick. 

Both of Northwestern's wins have come against bad teams, at home. Their victims were Nevada and Bowling Green, both of whom reside among the bottom 15 teams in the country. Note that they actually trailed Nevada late into the fourth quarter before scoring two TDs in the final five minutes. Bowling Green was a blowout, but Bowling Green is REALLY bad this year. The loss to Duke was the most telling game of the three. The Wildcats were outgained 538-191, on the road. They gained just 22 yds rushing on 21 carries. RB Justin Jackson had a career day against BGSU, but last year against Wisconsin he was held to 13 carries for 42 yards. I just don't see the necessary firepower here to compete. 

N'western's defense also figures to be in for a long afternoon going up against this Wisconsin offense. If they thought Duke was tough, wait until they get a look at the Badgers. Alex Hornibrook has proven to be one of the more efficient QB's in the nation. He completed 17 of 18 pass attempts in a 40-6 win over BYU two weeks ago (on the road!), four of them for touchdowns. He's completed 70% of his passes through three games w/ an 8-1 TD-INT ratio. A complimentary running game certainly helps and freshman RB Jonathan Taylor has come in and averaged 146 YPG. This is a team that owns the best point differential among Power 5 teams (130-30) and obviously a lot of credit has to go to the defense as well. They are 4th nationally in points allowed, having allowed only three TD's all year and zero second half points. They've given up just seven plays of 20+ yards, fifth fewest nationally. When two rested teams like this meet and the home team is ranked, the visitor is just 11-19 ATS since '05 if unranked. 8* Wisconsin

10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers have now - inexplicably - lost seven straight times to the division rival A's over the last month. They've also lost their last seven games overall. As a result, they have nothing to play for but pride on the final weekend of the regular season. However, I'm willing to stick to my philosophy and "go down w/ the ship" if necessary. The idea that they could continue losing to Oakland, day after day, seems pretty outlandish to me, especially considering the A's horrid 28-50 road record. They're being outscored by 1.2 rpg on the road this year, so it's not as if they've been competitive either. The two prior sweeps of the Rangers both took place in Oakland. I'm a firm believer in taking a team w/ revenge for a prior sweep (of three or more games) and seeing as Texas now has revenge for two sweeps (plus last night), I'm on them again here. 

Admittedly, things have not gone well for the Rangers over the last week as they've been outscored by an average 6.3 rpg during the losing streak. Last night was a 4-1 loss. Oakland happens to be trending in the opposite direction as they've won 16 of their last 21 games, including 9 of the last 11. But, I'm still willing to call for a halt to these disparate streaks tonight. Texas will have Martin Perez on the hill as he makes his team-leading 32nd start. Granted, the numbers aren't great and he did allow five runs (in 4 2/3 IP) his last start, which was against these A's. But that also came on the heels of a stretch that saw him allow 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts. So, a bounce back is likely here. Oakland generally does not hit well away from home (.237 team BA). Perez's ERA has dropped nearly two full points here in the second half of the season.

The A's counter w/ Raul Alcantara, who has made just three starts prior to this one. He has a 6.75 ERA even though he's not allowed a single run in 8 2/3 innings of work here in September. (That should tell you how bad the 1st start, which took place all the way back in April, was). He threw five shutout innings against the Rangers last week in what ended up being a 1-0 A's victory. But the Rangers were also the ones that hammered him for eight runs in just two innings back in April. Expect Alcantara's performance tonight to be "somewhere in the middle" of the previous two against Texas. The A's are just 18-25 vs. lefty starters this year and 49-83 against them the L3 seasons. 10* Texas

8* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): There's only one playoff spot still up for grabs and it's in the National League, currently occupied by the Colorado Rockies. Having been in playoff position EVERY DAY THIS SEASON except one (April 14th!), things are looking good for the Rockies heading into the regular season's final weekend. One of two teams that was chasing them, the Cardinals, were officially eliminated last night. They have a two game edge on the Brewers, who close out in St. Louis. As long as Colorado wins one game this weekend, they are at least assured of a play-in game against Milwaukee. That's if the Brew Crew were to sweep the Cards or win two out of three (if Rockies get swept). Not sure what's going to take place in that NL Central series, but here out West, things are not going to be easy on the team in pole position. They have to face the Dodgers, who are still trying to lock down homefield advantage for the entire postseason. Dodger Blue has revenge here for a four-game sweep that took place at home earlier this month. As a result, I like the road team in this series opener. 

The Dodgers have the unique distinction of being the ONLY team in MLB history to both win and lose 15 times in a 16 game stretch in the same season. But, clearly, they've won a lot more than they've lost this year as they enter Friday w/ the best overall record in baseball at 102-57. They are two games up on the Indians, so a win tonight would guarantee them homefield advantage throughout the postseason. That would be huge considering the club's impressive 57-24 WL record at Chavez Ravine. Granted, this series is on the road and in the total opposite environment of Dodgers Stadium (#1 in run suppression for visitors). But LA comes in playing well, having taken six of seven including four straight. Admittedly, those wins came at the expense of the Padres and Giants, but in the case of the last series (against SD), they were as dominant as you'd hope. They outscored the Padres 28-5 in the three games and are allowing an average of 2.0 runs the L7 games w/ opponents batting just .215. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu will start the opener for Los Angeles, bringing in a 1.38 ERA his L3 starts. Sadly, he hasn't won any of those, nor has his team! So, he's "due" in light of recent performance. In three September starts, Ryu has allowed just two runs in 13 IP. The problem has been the offense scoring just one time in all three games. Here at Coors Field, he should expect more run support. Of course, that works both ways as you can't necessarily expect Ryu to allow 1 or 0 ER, but fortunately Colorado's Chad Bettis comes in sporting an 8.10 ERA and 2.100 WHIP his L3 starts. Even better, in nine career appearances, Bettis has a 9.60 ERA against the Dodgers. Both teams had Thursday off and that's to the Dodgers advantage as they are 13-3 after an off-day (Colorado just 9-9). 8* LA Dodgers

8* Illinois (8:00 ET): There are already numerous signs that the Mike Riley era may not be a long one in Lincoln. Sure, he led the team to nine wins last year. But after a 7-0 SU start to 2016, the Cornhuskers have lost 6 of their last 10 games. Coming into this year, virtually all key metrics were pointing down. Unfortunately, things have been even worse than expected. They're 2-2 SU and neither win (Arkansas State, Rutgers) was the least bit impressive. Furthemore, they're a somewhat miraculous second half "comeback" away from being 0-4 ATS. Their lone cover, at Oregon, saw them down 42-14 at the half. Inexplicably, the Ducks didn't score the entire 2nd half (still won 42-35 as 14-pt chalk). Throw in the fact that his AD has already been canned and Riley really has to be worried about his job security right now.

Meanwhile, Lovie Smith is hardly on solid ground in Champaign. Granted, he was inheriting somewhat of a mess, but the expectations of a former NFL HC will always be high. The Fighting Illini went just 3-9 SU in '16, Smith's first year on the job. However, despite being off a bad loss in their last game, there are at least signs of improvement. That's something you can't say for Nebraska. Illinois started 2-0 SU w/ wins over Ball State and Western Kentucky. Then they ran into a ranked USF team and were beaten down, 47-23, in a weeknight home game. The Illini have a big edge here in that they've been off for two full weeks while Nebraska is working on a short week. Saturday saw the Cornhuskers barely escape Rutgers, winning only 27-17. I had the dog there, making it two times I've already cashed going against Riley's team. Let's make it three. 

Neither offense here is very good. Nebraska QB Tanner Lee leads the nation in interceptions (9) and has the fourth lowest QBR among Power 5 signal callers. Granted, Illinois' Chayce Crouch's QBR is lower, but look for Smith to throw in a wrinkle here by rotating QB's (Jeff George likely to see time as well). The Illini have good receivers and Nebraska's pass defense is the worst in the Big 10. Illinois also gets back RB Reggie Corbin here and on the other side of the ball, DE James Crawford will also make his season debut (suspended first three games). Starting center Doug Kramer missed the L2 games, but is also expected back Friday night. So, in other words, the Illini is at close to full strength coming off a bye. Nebraska is dealing with several injuries (on both sides of the ball) on a short week. This is a tailor-made spot for Smith to pick up his biggest win yet while Nebraska seems on the road to bottoming out. Take the points. 8* Illinois

10* Utah State (8:00 ET): BYU stinks. That rather blunt assessment is not something you would have ever dreamed of saying about the contingent from Provo, but this particular edition REALLY struggles to move the ball. I'm so down on Kalani Sitake's bunch this year, that I don't think even having a week off to prepare here will cure what ails them. Utah State takes the "Battle for the Beehive Boot" quite seriously and is off a whitewashing of San Jose State last week, a 61-10 win as 1.5-pt road favorites. The Aggies were a good team to "buy low" on coming into the year as LY's 3-9 SU finish was easily the worst of the Matt Wells era. All four of their games thus far, whether a win or a loss (2-2 overall), have been blowouts and have gone Over. BYU is 0-4 ATS. This is likely to be a close one, but look for the home team (won 7 straight at home vs. non-conf opponents) to prevail. 

In four games, BYU has scored all of 39 points. Against FBS sides, they are averaging just 174 YPG. Granted, they've had to play LSU, Utah and Wisconsin. But you would have thought they'd be more competitive, especially at home. But Wisconsin destroyed them in Provo two weeks ago, 40-6 w/ 491-192 edge in total yds. LSU shut them out 27-0 and in between was a seventh straight loss to Utah (19-13). The Cougars lone win was against Portland State, but even that (20-6 final) wasn't impressive as they finished w/ fewer first downs than their FCS opponent. In fact, they have just 43 first downs total in four games! The offense has yet to throw for 200 yards in any game and backup Beau Hoge (Merrill's son) will again be pressed into duty, making his 1st ever start on the road. On the defensive side of the ball, the rush defense was gashed to the tune of nearly 6.0 YPC by Wisconsin and now will face an offense that ran for 318 yds last week. 

Utah State was also blown out by Wisconsin this year, but actually led 10-0 before surrendering the final 59 points. They also lost their best defensive player to a targeting call in that game, which completely turned things around (led 10-0 at the time of the ejection). This will be just the second home game of the year for the Aggies and I expect a fired up atmosphere even though this is not a national TV game. USU has lost 25 of the last 28 meetings to BYU, but as the spread indicates, this will be one of the few times the players feel that they have a legit chance of winning going into the game. Last year, they were 17-point dogs in Provo for a season finale where there was nothing to play for. This is a confident, short home dog this go around after a near 600-yard effort on the road last week. The defense posted the third highest efficiency rating of any team last week. 10* Utah State

10* Green Bay (8:25 ET): No home team has won and no favorite has covered yet on TNF this season. Look for that to change this week in Lambeau. The Packers have owned the Bears for years now (won 12 of previous 14 meetings) and the Bears last won a road game back in Week 16 of the 2015 season. They were one of two teams (Browns) not to win a single one last year. So far this season, they've cashed for me twice, but both times were at home. Last week's outright victory (as 7-pt dogs) over the Steelers (in overtime) will be difficult to follow. As for Green Bay, averting what would have been a disastrous loss LW vs. the Bengals (1st OT win of Aaron Rodgers career) should serve as the necessary wake-up call. I'm laying the points in this one.

I've seen a lot of calls for rookie Mitchell Trubisky to start at QB over the admittedly uninspiring Mike Glennon. I'm not surprised, but what folks are failing to realize is that the Bears' receiving corps is just dreadful, easily one of the worst in the league. So it really doesn't matter who is the QB right now. Although, I must admit, Glennon isn't likely to win many games. The Bears won LW despite just 84 yards passing from Glennon! But they had 220 yards rushing. Green Bay's run defense hasn't been great thus far, but here they're also going to be able to "stack the box" and dare Glennon to beat them (he won't). Glennon's longest completed pass this year went for 22 yds and LW he completed only one (pass) to a WR. RB Jordan Howard's shoulder injury isn't exactly helped by the short week either. 

Both teams have injuries along the offensive line. So it's on the respective QB's to get it done then. Big edge to Rodgers and the Packers obviously. Rodgers has dominated the Bears through the years (105.7 passer rating) and while the secondary he faces here is improved, it will be w/o starting safety Quintin Demps. Remember, I played against the Pack last week as they were laying a similar number to Cincinnati. A Rodgers' pick-six put them in an early hole and while I was confident my ticket would cash, I was not shocked to see GB come back and win the game. I don't think the team will play poorly B2B weeks at home. Over the L3 seasons, this team is 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cut the threshold off at a TD and they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. 10* Green Bay

10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers have dropped six in a row, not that it matters anymore as what was once a very wide open chase for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League has now been decided w/ the Twins clinching yday. At the start of the season, I called for major regression from the Rangers as LY's team may have finished w/ the best record in the A.L. (95 wins), but they outscored opponents by only EIGHT runs over the entire season! They set a new MLB mark for best ever record in one-run games, which is an unsustainable blueprint for success. The unlikelihood of them making the playoffs this year was cemented when they became sellers at the trade deadline, most notably dealing away ace Yu Darvish. 

However, all that being said, there is tremendous value in taking the Rangers here tonight. Yes, they've not only been swept in two consecutive series, but they've got a rare case of double revenge to exact against the A's.  Oakland is responsible for three of the Rangers' six straight losses, having swept them last weekend (by the Bay). They also swept them in Oakland late last month. It's very rare to see one opponent sweep another twice in a row, especially when the team that sweeps is the inferior ballclub. Instrumental to this play is Oakland's home/road splits. As mentioned before, both sweeps of Texas took place at home. Following yday's win, this team is 46-35 (+13.3 units!) at the O.co Coliseum. But on the road, they've been a disaster all year, turning in a 27-50 record (-16.1 units) while being outscored by 1.3 runs pe game. Only the Giants have fewer road wins this year (what is it about leaving the Bay area?) and only a handful of teams have a worse run differential away from home this year.

Pitching tonight for Texas will be Miguel Gonzalez. It's his second straight time starting against the A's. Last weekend, he was a hard luck loser. He allowed just one run on four hits, that one run being a solo HR, but sadly that was the difference in the game as Oakland won 1-0. Gonzalez had five strikeouts and zero walks in six innings. That followed him allowing just one run on two hits in 5 IP his previous start, which was a 4-2 win over the Angels. The A's counter here w/ Sean Manaea, who has a rather ugly 1.840 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in the L2, which have spanned only 8 2/3 innings. His L11 starts have seen him allow opponents to bat .346 (!) and he's 3-5 w/ a 6.27 ERA. He has a 6.10 ERA in two starts vs. Texas this year. Getting back to the A's road woes, they are only 1-5 here in Arlington this season, getting swept once themselves. The Rangers are not as bad as they've played recently while Oakland is not as good as its played recently. The A's are also w/o rookie Matt Olson the rest of the way and he was the primary reason for the team's offensive resurgence. With neither side having much to play for (except pride), I'm banking big on the revenge angle here. 10* Texas

8* Texas (8:00 ET): This will be the 1st time Texas has taken the field since suffering a heartbreaking loss to USC (in double overtime) back on 9.16. At 1-2 SU overall, it's definitely been a disappointing start to the Tom Herman era (lost opener to Maryland). While Herman was quick to gripe over expectations, the fact is the cupboard was not left bare for him in Austin. He inhertied 17 returning starters (10 on defense) from a talented group that consistently underperformed for predecessor Charlie Strong. All signs were pointing up for this year and it should be noted that despite LY's 3-6 SU finish, the 'Horns actually outgained their foes in conference play. One of the three wins came at the expense of Iowa State, 27-6 as 14-pt favorites. With better talent and better coaching this time around, I expect another win and cover for UT. 

Iowa State is 3-0 ATS, though they've played an FCS school (Northern Iowa) and lost a heartbreaker to Iowa in Week 2. I was impressed by how they bounced back from that loss, beating Akron 41-14 on the road two Saturdays ago. While they rolled up nearly 500 total yds there, a +3 turnover margin certainly helped as well. The Cyclones may impress some by the fact they've topped 40 points in all three games, but I'll call for their worst offensive effort of the season here. In last year's game w/ Texas, ISU was held to its lowest scoring output of the entire conference slate. They won only two Big 12 games in Matt Campbell's 1st year here and one was against Kansas. It should be pointed out that Texas also comes in averaging north of 40 PPG.

Note that the Longhorns almost pulled off the upset of USC despite having a backup, freshman Sam Ehlinger, at QB. Starter Shane Buechele has taken most of the first-team reps in practice this week and may be set to return. His return would only strengthen this play. While Iowa State benefited from turnovers in its last game, Texas was certainly hurt by them as they finished -3 in differential, including a goal-line fumble in OT. I realize that the Longhorns also have five non-offensive touchdowns already, but I can only assume that number will increase throughout the season. Meanwhile, I feel as if Iowa State's offense (which has scored 40+ pts in three straight games for the 1st time EVER) will certainly see its production decrease now that we've hit conference play. Keep in mind that you would have to go back to 2012 to find the last time any Iowa State team finished w/ more than three wins. Herman is 4-0 SU in his coaching career when he's had at least 12 days to prepare. Make it 5-0. 8* Texas

8* Under Pirates/Nationals (7:05 ET): There is nothing to play for here as Pittsburgh was eliminated from playoff contention long ago and the Nats are locked into a Division Series matchup w/ the Cubs (where they'll have homefield advantage). Furthermore, these teams are hardly familiar with one another here in 2017. They've met only one time previous, a three-game series in Pittsburgh, back in May. The Pirates took two of the three games, but in the grand scheme of things, that achievement is rather meaningless. They come into this final series of the year on a four-game win streak, also pretty meaningless, as that whole streak took place at home. On the road, the Bucs have been really dreadful this year; 29-48 w/ just 4.1 runs per game scored. I'm on the Under here. 

There was a time when Washington led all of MLB in most key offensive categories. They've slipped recently though, down to sixth in runs scored. Over the L7 games, they've averaged only 3.7 rpg while batting a collective .197. Disappointing is that stretch has coincided w/ the return of Bryce Harper to the lineup. Fortunately though, they've held opponents to just 3.3 rpg over those same L7 games. A four-game Under streak was broken last night w/ a 7-5 loss to the Phillies, but I don't see that kind of game playing out here. Starter Edwin Jackson has certainly struggled of late, but he's always pitched well against the Pirates as he is 10-3 w/ a 3.71 ERA in 21 career appearances. It is unlikely that Jackson even makes the postseason roster, but if he wants to, he'll need a quality start here. The Nats' bullpen has been good at home w/ a 3.98 ERA. 

Since they haven't really been a contender, you may wonder what ails Pittsburgh. Well, it starts w/ an offense that ranks 28th in MLB in runs scored and 29th in slugging. As mentioned before, they've been a disaster on the road this year and that includes a .236 team batting average. I don't see them being able to take advantage of Jackson's recent struggles in this spot. Pitching for them tonight will be Ivan Nova, whose L3 starts have all stayed Under the total. Nova has a horrible 4-14 TSR on the road this year, but he's pitched better than that record would indicate. He's turned in B2B decent starts, allowing only four runs (three earned) in 11 1/3 IP. Nova's main problem is that the offense tends to "forget" to support him. They've scored three runs or less in each of his last four starts and just seven runs total. The Pirates are the top Under team in the NL (89-62-7) and Washington isn't far behind (80-68-10). The Under has cashed in over 61% of Pirates' road games. 8* Under Pirates/Nationals

10* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Despite not even playing a game, the Brewers were a big winner Monday as both the Rockies and Cardinals lost. That left them 1.5 games back of Colorado and one game up on St. Louis (who they close the season against). That deficit and lead stayed the same after Tuesday's results though as all three teams won, including the Brew Crew 7-6 over the Reds. This series is a revenge spot for the home team who was swept down in Cincy earlier this month. Milwaukee badly needs to return the favor here in order to catch Colorado for that 2nd Wild Card. Fortunately, it looks like the lowly Reds will be all too quick to oblige. Cincy has now dropped seven in a row and is 27-48 on the road (-1.3 rpg). Last night's game was not as close as the final one-run margin might seem to indicate. The Brewers led 4-0 after the first inning and 6-2 after three.

Reds pitching has generally been pretty bad all season. The staff ranks 29th in ERA and 28th in WHIP and has given up the most runs in the National League (850). But lately, things have gotten real dire w/ this group. They've allowed an average of 6.7 rpg during the seven-game losing streak and that figures to only get worse w/ the likes of Homer Bailey on the hill Wednesday. Bailey has a 6.96 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in 17 starts. In three starts against Milwaukee this year, his ERA is 7.07. What's really frightening however, is that out of those 17 starts this season, Bailey has made it past the sixth inning only ONCE. That means the Reds' horrid bullpen (5.13 ERA, 1.510 WHIP on the road) is likely to come into play here. 

The Brewers were able to take advantage of a starter making his big league debut (in the starter's role) last night. Tonight, it will be them turning to a rather inexperienced hurler. Brandon Woodruff will be making only his eighth career start in this "must-win" spot and he's yet to win in four tries here at Miller Park. However, that record and his ERA are rather deceiving. His WHIP at home is 1.103, which is actually very good. He's just been a victim of some bad "cluster luck." Take his last start for example. He allowed five hits in five innings against the Cubs, but wound up giving up four runs. Three walks certainly didn't help there, but control really hadn't been an issue previously. Milwaukee badly needs this win and I think they'll get it. 10* Milwaukee

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): After a disappointing loss in the series opener, the Rockies came back and won for me on Tuesday, 6-0, thereby avenging a prior sweep at the hands of the Marlins (that took place last month). The home team certainly has more on the line here as they try and hold onto the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. Because both Milwaukee and St. Louis also won last night, the Rockies lead is now 1.5 and 2 games respectively over those two clubs. Miami is simply playing out the string this final week. With what looks to be a decided starting pitching edge, I look for Colorado to exercise it homefield advantage to the fullest Wednesday afternoon and dominate yet again.

The Rockies, not surprisingly, are yet again the highest scoring home team in all of baseball at 5.9 rpg. This does not bode well at all for Marlins starter Adam Conley, who comes in w/ an ugly 10.49 ERA and 2.165 WHIP his L3 starts. Pitching in another hitter-friendly park (Chase Field) his last start, Conley surrendered seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings. For the year, he's 7-6 in 19 starts, but his TSR is 9-10 and his ERA/WHIP are 5.71/1.490. I look for him to struggly mightily in this spot. He's simply not giving skipper Don Mattingly many innings of late as he's made it past the fifth inning just one time in four September starts. As a result, he has a 9.56 ERA this month. Colorado has gone 34-22 against southpaw starters in 2017. Conley did not face them in the series last month.

Push Miami north of +175 on the ML and their record on the road is just 2-8 this season.  Overall, they've dropped 16 of their last 24 ballgames. Conversely, Colorado is 10-5 this season north of -175 at home and they are also 34-22 in day games. Jon Gray starting justifies the price range here as he comes in having allowing 3 ER or fewer in 12 consecutive starts! During that time, he's gone 6-3 w/ a 2.49 ERA. Opponents are batting only .249 against him w/ a .656 OPS. His KW ratio is 75-16 and he's allowed only 65 hits in 72 1/3 IP. So this is precisely the pitcher the Rockies would want starting in this spot. Over his last four starts, Gray has allowed just four runs (in 24 IP) on 18 hits and has 28 strikeouts (against just four walks). Perhaps most impressive of all is him allowing only 3 HR's his L10 starts. With the two teams chasing them (Brewers & Cardinals) set to play a three-game series this weekend, it's vital that the Rockies maintain their edge in the standings going into Friday. There's a good chance that those two will "take each other out," thereby costing themselves the Wild Card. 8* Colorado

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies were another team that let me down last night, but I'm banking on them bouncing back Tuesday. They better as their lead over Milwaukee has been trimmed to just one game in the chase for the final playoff spot in the National League. St. Louis also lost yday, so they remain two back. It would be a real shame if the Rockies ended up missing the playoffs as they have been in position to make it virtually all season. The team they are facing here, Miami, has ZERO to play for this week and Colorado still has revenge for a sweep that took place down in Florida last month. The Rockies certainly had their chances last night (had more total bases), but routinely failed to capitalize. The highest scoring home team in the majors, they should rebound here. 

Colorado has not made the playoffs since 2009. Perhaps the pressure is getting to them as they've now dropped six of eight, which includes a losing road trip in San Diego and San Francisco. Facing a third straight non-playoff team, they have to begin to take advantage of this schedule. Milwaukee has a very favorable stretch coming up w/ the lowly Reds coming in for three games. Colorado will wrap up its regular season by hosting the Dodgers this weekend. One thing that is good from their perspective is that Milwaukee plays St. Louis, so those two could conceivably "knock each other out" (of contention). But the Rockies need to expand their lead in the next two days first. Miami's staff gives up plenty of runs already on the road (5.5 per game), so I expect the Rockies to score plenty here.

Pitching for the home team will be Tyler Anderson. Like most members of the starting rotation, he got off to a fast start in 2017. But then he hit a bit of a wall. Still, since returning from knee surgery, he's made B2B quality starts, including six shutout innings of two-hit ball in his lone start here at Coors. Opponents have hit just .173 against him in the two games (though admittedly both opponents were San Diego). Miami is just 12-19 vs. LH starters this year. They will counter w/ Jose Urena, who has a 17-9 TSR and has looked good in September. He is 9-1 in 12 road starts, but it's worth mentioning his ERA is 4.34. He's thrown 100+ pitches in each of his L4 starts, so I'm interested to see what he has left in the tank here. My guess is the Rockies get to him early. They average 6.0 rpg at home this season. 8* Colorado

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals failed miserably in their attempt to make up ground in the NL Wild Card race last night, losing 10-2 to the Cubs. While the loss ended up not hurting the Redbirds (Colorado also lost), they still have to also jump Milwaukee (who is a game up on them). As for the defending World Series Champs, reducing their magic number for clinching the NL Central to one. As discussed yday, the Cubs would love nothing more than to clinch the division title in their rival's ballpark. But, St. Louis obviously has a lot to play for here as well and will be sending Carlos Martinez to the hill tonight. The revenge angle from a prior sweep by the Cubs (last week at Wrigley) is obviously still in play here. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me, I guess. 

I was really disappointed by the performance of Luke Weaver last night. He had been a major reason why the Cardinals have given up the fewest runs in the division this season. But I'm banking on Martinez not letting us down here. He's off a couple of sub-standard outings, yes, but overall it's still been a strong season for the right-hander. He has a 9-5 TSR in 14 starts here at Busch w/ a 3.18 ERA and 1.104 WHIP. The Cubs got to him at Wrigley 11 days ago, but that was after Martinez had posted a 3-0 TSR in his first three starts against them this year. One of them, here at home, saw him toss 7 1/3 scoreless innings w/ 10 K's (Opening Day). He also beat tonight's counterpart, Jake Arrieta, back on 7.21. 

Arrieta made his return from the DL last week in Milwaukee and went five innings, allowing just one run. He only struck out two batters and had to be bailed out late by the offense though (extra inning win). Arrieta hasn't been as sharp compared to the previous two seasons this year. Now he has always seemed to have St. Louis' number, but it remains to be seen if he's the "same guy." He's thrown only 122 pitches since 8.29. Though the Cubs are well on their way to making the postseason, they've lost money in almost all setting this year. Meanwhile, St. Louis is still 42-33 at home, holding the opposition under 4.0 rpg. They need this one badly and I'll try them again. 8* St. Louis

6* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): Without even playing, the Brewers "won" yday in the sense that both the Rockies and Cardinals lost. Those results leave the Brew Crew now just 1.5 games back of the Rockies for the 2nd Wild Card and one full game up on the Cards in the chase. After a tough series w/ the first place Cubs over the weekend, where they dropped three of four (two in extra innings), Milwaukee couldn't have asked for a better setup to start the week. They'll remain at home and host the lowly Reds. But don't expect the Brew Crew to take these games lightly. Not only are they trying for a playoff spot, but they have revenge on their minds here after being swept in Cincy earlier this month. The Reds, however, come into this series having dropped six in a row. 

Zach Davies is certainly a good choice to open the series for the home team. He's faced the Reds three times this season and has a 2.30 ERA. Even in the series in which Milwaukee got swept, Davis delivered 5 2/3 innings of two run ball, one of those runs allowed being unearned. His hard-luck continued his last time out where he allowed just two runs in 7 IP against the Cubs, but that was one of the games the Brewers blew late and ended up losing. Twice in his L3 starts, Davies has "stood tall" against the Cubs, also beating them back on 9.10 by allowing just one run in 7 IP. Here, he'll be facing an offense that's scored only 22 runs during its six game slide, all of which took place at home. Given the Reds' road record this year is 27-47, I don't see them turning things around here. Price Cincy above +175 on the money line and their road record is just 2-11. 

The Reds have zilch to play for in the season's final week, so it should come as no shock to see them trying out a new starter in this spot. Deck McGuire makes his first big league start Tuesday night after four relief apperances. While his minor league numbers may look impressive, note that he came straight from Double-A, so this is quite the jump he's making here. He's also 28, so this is hardly a "prospect" at this point. The Reds are getting outscored by 1.3 rpg on the road this year, one of the worst marks in all of MLB, so I just don't see them being competitive in this spot. A lot is on the line for the Brew Crew and I think they'll take advantage. 6* Milwaukee

8* Run Line Oakland (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the A's at +1.5. Oakland certainly made me look foolish over the weekend, sweeping Texas for the seccond time in less than a month. They've now won a season-best seven in a row and enter this series hoping the revenge angle plays out better for them than it did for Texas over the weekend. I played against this A's team in each of the last three games (cashing once - on the run line) as I'm a firm believer in taking a team playing w/ revenge for a prior sweep. It didn't pan out, but I'm obviously "doubling down" on the strategy here tonight as all three teams I'm taking in this 3-game report are in that very situation. Here, I'll take the safe rout and say the A's do no worse than a one-run loss.

Seattle has played its way right out of Wild Card contention by dropping eight of its last nine games. They were officially eliminated after yday's 4-2 loss to Cleveland. While they did actually take a game from the Indians over the weekend (Friday), prior to that, they had been swept (at home) by the same Texas team that Oakland just dominated. I expect morale to be pretty low for the Mariners this final week of the season. The reality is that they were pretty fortunate to even find themselves in playoff contention. It was owed to a still MLB-best 26-13 record in one-run games. So we're covering ourselves by taking the run line in this one. But the bottom line is that the M's are probably due to drop a couple of one-run games this final week. Oakland, while having nothing to play for here either, is at least playing loose and well. Late season callups have led to a much-needed infusion of youth and the club is 14-3 its L17 games overall.

There was a time when I'd never consider fading Felix Hernandez. But the Seattle starter is no longer "King" as an injury-plagued season has left him w/ a 5-5 record in 15 starts (8-7 TSR), a 4.57 ERA and 1.339 WHIP. Due to injury, his last three starts have actually all come against Texas. He finished w/ a 7.30 ERA in those three outings, two of which took place since he returned from the DL. The last one saw him last only 3 1/3 innings and he allowed six runs. Strikeout numbers are way down for Hernandez this year. During their seven-game win streak, the A's have allowed just 2.6 runs per game (opponents batting only .225). Contrast this w/ Seattle averaging only 2.7 rpg its L7 games (.227 BA). Daniel Gossett is hardly Oakland's top starter and in fact, the team was lucky to escape a winner in his last start thanks to Gossett allowing six runs (were facing Detroit). But prior to that, Gossett had been pitching well and I'll call for a bounce back start here. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): I'm taking the Cardinals today, but the team that they are chasing finds itself in a similar position as the Rockies return home from their own disappointing road trip (went 2-4 against the Padres and Giants). Their lead over Milwaukee is down to a precarious two games for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot, though it was just one before yday's results. I like them to preserve their edge over the Brew Crew and Cards tonight w/ a very favorable matchup against the Marlins. Miami has zero to play for in the final week of the season as Sunday's loss assured them of a sub-.500 campaign. Tonight is one year to the day that we tragically lost Jose Fernandez, but emotion alone will not be able to carry the Marlins in this one.

Any discussion of the Rockies at home has to start and end with how their offense increases exponentially here at Coors Field. They lead the league (again) w/ an average of 6.0 rpg scored at home. That's a full two more runs per game than what they average on the road. I see them having little difficulty scoring tonight off Odrisamer Despaigne, whose two previous road starts have not gone well at all (8.63 ERA, 2.278 WHIP). Despaigne only became a full-fledged member of the Miami rotation late last month. He has more walks (13) than strikeouts (10) during that time, which is never a good sign. Lefties are batting .306 against him this season w/ an .834 OPS. The Marlins already allow 5.5 rpg on the road and this is simply not the venue for that number to start going down.

The Rockies also have revenge here as Miami swept them last month, the lone time these two teams have met previously this season. (By the way, both of these franchises entered the league in 1993). Miami's offense just scored a ton in Arizona over the weekend (25 runs in three games), but was limited to only two on Sunday. I'm hoping Tyler Chatwood can continue his current September pace, which has seen him make four starts and not allow more than 3 ER in any of them. He has a 1.83 ERA in September and was unbeaten before a hard-luck loss in San Francisco last Wednesday (Rockies shut out). I look for Chatwood to get plenty of support tonight, however, as the Colorado offense should "wake back up" upon its return home (regardless if Nolan Arenado plays or not). A lot is on the line for them here. 8* Colorado

10* Arizona (8:30 ET): Both teams come in at 1-1 SU here, but took opposite routs to get there. Dallas won their opener, 19-3 over the Giants, but was then humiliated (as a road favorite) LW in Denver, losing 42-17. Arizona lost its opener, 35-23 to Detroit (fell victim to a Matt Stafford comeback) and then escaped from Indianapolis LW w/ a 16-13 OT win. Coming into the year, I certainly expected the Cowboys to regress a little from last year's breakthrough 13-3 campaign. (Who didn't?). But the Cardinals were a team I'd earmarked for improvement as they were certainly a lot better than LY's 7-8-1 record showed (outscored opp by 56 pts!). I'm sticking to my initial respective reads on the two teams here and will take take points as there's been some "reverse line movement" at play here as well.

The loss to the Lions and the injury to David Johnson caused most to "give up" on the Cards pretty quickly I feel. I didn't want any part of them last week as they were laying a pretty sizable number on the road. They definitely started sluggish in Indy, trailing 13-3 early in the 4Q. But even though the Colts had Jacoby Brissett starting at QB, I was impressed by the Cards' defense permitting just three points after the 1st quarter. They ended up outgaining the Colts 389-266. Running the ball may be a problem w/o Johnson, but Denver certainly provided a blueprint for them as last week they ran for 178 yards against the Cowboys defense. Also, look for Carson Palmer to attack a banged up Cowboys secondary that is down two starters. Defensively, Arizona's gameplan here should be similar to Denver's last week in that they need to look to force Dak Prescott to thrown more. 

Though they did fall behind early, I was stunned to see the Cowboys abandon the run game so quickly last week. Ezekiel Elliot had his worst game as a pro, by a mile, and had his effort level questioned to boot. I can't see him being held in check to that degree for a second straight game, but certainly this Dallas' offense is not "clicking" right now as they're averaging only 18 PPG. WR Dez Bryant will be matched up against CB Patrick Peterson and thus isn't likely to have a big game here either. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys have always been money burners in the favorite role. Given what happened last week, I certainly don't trust them laying points here and will back the Cardinals in their home opener. 10* Arizona

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): It's desperation time for the Cardinals, who return home from a nine-game trip (went 4-5) down 2.5 games to Colorado in the chase for the final available playoff spot in the National League. They are also competing w/ Milwaukee, who leads them by one-half game. The Cubs come in looking to clinch the NL Central here and have made it no secret that they'd love to accomplish the feat on their rival's field. "We intend to clinch there. For a lot of the guys that have been around here for a long time, it's going to be very satisfying," said Ben Zobrist. The Cubs have certainly had the Cards' number here in 2017, going 11-4 in 15 head to head matchups, including a three-game sweep at Wrigley just over a week ago. But their second straight division pennant will have to wait as St. Louis obviously has something to play for here as well and has a sizable edge in starting pitching in this one. 

The Redbirds' pitching has actually been quite good this year. In fact, they've allowed fewer runs than the Cubs this season and the 4th fewest overall in the Senior Circuit (three playoff teams ahead of them). Monday starter Luke Weaver has played a significant role in that. He has a 7-1 team start record and since a somewhat shaky debut back on 7.27, he's been lights out. The Cards have won each of the last seven times he has pitched w/ him allowing 2 ER or fewer everytime. His ERA and WHIP during this time are 1.69 and 0.937. His KW ratio is 57-6! The Cubs have yet to see him to the point, which is a disadvantage for them. Over the L7 games, the Cubs offense is averaging only 3.6 rpg and they were a little lucky over the weekend in Milwaukee as two of their three wins required extra innings. 

The Cardinals' returning home is a big deal as they're a lot better at Busch. Note the 42-32 home record as they are limiting opponents to just 3.9 rpg here. The Cubs, off a 5-0 shutout win on Sunday, are making their final stop on a nine-game road trip that's taken them to both Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. Only 3-3 off a shutout win this year, the Cubs have lost money in virtually all setting in '17, including on the road (-6.3 units). They'll have the struggling Jon Lester on the mound Monday. Lester was rocked for seven runs in just 4 1/3 IP his last time out (at Tampa Bay) and in general, has not pitched well of late. He has a 6.81 ERA and 1.766 WHIP his L7 starts. The WHIP is 1.837 in the last three and his ERA is 5.11 since the All-Star Break. The revenge-minded Cards need this one BAD. 8* St. Louis

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Welcome to the final week of the MLB regular season where you can find lines such as this one. Washington has already clinched the NL East and almost certainly will be matched up against the Cubs in the Division Series. That means they have little to play for the rest of the way. Of course, the same holds true for the last place Phillies, but they've actually played better than their record shows this season. Maybe it's not much of a difference but, based on run differential, they "should" have 66 wins (they have 62). They'll have their best pitcher on the mound Monday, that being Aaron Nola, and I view that as the difference in this series opener. Meanwhile, the Nats are sending out A.J. Cole to see what he's got. Big pitching mismatch for the home team here.

Nola has been sharp of late and the Phillies have won each of his last two starts. The last one saw him go seven innings and allow just two runs and five hits against the the Dodgers. That was a nice win as +145 money line underdogs. That followed a showing against Miami where he allowed only one run on four hits, again in seven innings, with 11 K's. Both starts came at home. He did face the Nats earlier this month, in D.C., and pitched well there too, giving up just three runs (two earned) w/ 8 K's. But the Phils came up short in that one, 4-3. But facing them at home now is a big advantage as after those L2 starts, Nola is 9-4 in 13 starts at Citizens Bank Park this season. His ERA and WHIP are 2.98 and 1.027 respectively. Tonight will be Nola's final start of '17, so expect him to pitch well.

Cole will be making just his 8th start of the year for the Nats. Six of the previous seven have come since August 2nd, but he's been used in the starter's role only sparingly of late w/ just three starts since 8.13. The last one saw him face the Dodgers and he lasted only five innings in a 3-2 loss. That was back on 9.16. I'm just not high on him here given that he has a 4.19 ERA and 1.552 WHIP overall this year. Yes, Bryce Harper has been activated for this game, but it's going to take awhile for him to come around. Normally, I might be a little leery of endorsing the Phillies in this situation, but the Nats really do have nothing to play for right now, thus I'll lean on the rather sizable starting pitching edge for the home team. 10* Philadelphia

10* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): Oh, those Chargers. They are now 0-2 SU on the young year, having lost both games on the final play. Each time it was a missed FG by rookie kicker Younghoe Koo. Week 1, Koo actually appeared to have tied the game w/ Denver, but the Broncos called timeout first. His next attempt was blocked. Last week in Miami saw the Chargers blow a 17-10 lead, but down 19-17 they moved into FG range for Koo, only for him to miss again. Whether in San Diego or LA, this is an all-too familiar pattern for the Bolts, who are now a league worst 2-9 SU in games decided by a field goal or less since 2015 and 4-11 SU in one-score games since the start of last year including coming out on the wrong end of 10 of the last 11! In the name of Dan Fouts, will somebody please stop this madness? This team is better than this, even if their new "fans" in Los Angeles don't really want them. 

I'm not ashamed to admit that I had the Chargers as one of the most improved teams in the league coming into the season. It's because, eventually, their horrible luck in close games HAS to change. Throw in the fact that they are an ugly 0-6 SU the L3 seasons vs. the Chiefs (three losses by TD or less) and I'm "all in" on this "progression to the mean" philosophy. The offense enters this game healthy as QB Philip Rivers (poor guy!) has a full compliment of skill position players. Last year saw the Chargers jump out to a 24-3 lead on the Chiefs here at home, only for WR Keenan Allen to tear his ACL, and they lost in overtime, 33-27. Rivers played well last week against Miami, completing 31 of 39 passes for 331 yards. Allen was destroying Cheifs CB Marcus Peters in LY's series opener before the ACL tear and I believe can do it again.

Right now, Kansas City is the "toast" of the league as they're 2-0 SU/ATS including that shocking win over the Patriots on Opening Night. But it should be noted they were outgained last week at home by Philadelphia. While that's a byproduct of a late Eagles TD drive that ultimately meant nothing, it was a tough game they played against the Eagles. They've been tooth and nail with both opponents going into the fourth quarter, which is the last thing the Chargers want to hear, based on the two teams' records. But, again, eventually these things do work out and regress to the mean. I'm not giving up hope that this Chargers team can turn things around as they're certainly better than their record, something you could also say in 2016. Protecting the ball will be key (Chiefs have the league's best TO margin L3 seasons), but LA will be able to move the ball in this game. Last week, Philadelphia had 27 first downs to KC's 16. Let's just hope and pray that if this game isn't decided until late, things FINALLY go the Chargers' way. 10* LA Chargers

8* Cincinnati (4:25 ET): The Bengals come into Wk 3 w/ the dubious distinction of not having scored a single TD in their first two games, both of which were at home. The last time that happened was 1939! Therefore, it's not a surprise to see them receiving little to no support here, especially since they're up against a team that's long been loved by the public, Green Bay. But might this number now be too high? Prior to them losing last Thursday (13-9 to Houston), this line was set to be around a touchdown. Anything over says "value" to me, especially considering Green Bay lost as well last week, 34-23 down in Atlanta. The expectation is that they'll bounce back, but Cinci has had more time to prepare and is the more desperate team to boot. Take the points.

I was on GB (as a dog) last week. In retrospect, that was a misread as they were w/o both starting tackles, which obviously made Aaron Rodgers' job a lot more difficult. Still though, the Pack put up 23 points. It was the defense that struggled mightily. Now, you don't have to tell me that Cinci is not Atlanta, but they do have a lot of talent at the skill positions. I'll repeat something I said last week and that's I'd like to start see more of Joe Mixon running the ball. Though he fumbled last week, John Ross is another rookie I'd like to see used more here. Now TE Tyler Eifert is out. But Andy Dalton still has AJ Green to throw to. Green Bay is a little lucky not to be 0-2 SU themselves coming into this week. Their Week 1 win was predicated on a Seattle pick-six that was called back plus a key turnover (by the Seahawks) which set the Pack up inside the 5-yd line. 

Historically, this is a great spot to back the underdog. Teams that are 0-2 ATS and getting less than 50% of total bets are 26-15 ATS since 2003. Moreover, the Bengals are 5-1 SU and ATS the previous two seasons when off B2B SU losses. So they typically respond in this scenario. Usually, when a team fails to cover in a primetime game, the public is against them the following week. But because it's the Packers and they're at home against a struggling opponent, that is not the case here. All this has conspired to giving us a ton of value on a desperate underdog that will have to go "all out" so that their season isn't rendered "irrelevant" after just three weeks. The Bengals are better than they've shown so far and should be able to stick within the number. (They're also 10-5 SU/ATS on the road the L2 seasons!) 8* Cincinnati

10* Texas (4:05 ET): Well, this is "it" for the Rangers. We know that it's their final chance to avoid what would be a second sweep at the hands of the division rival A's, in less than a month's time. Furthermore, after losing the last two days (1-0 last night), their Wild Card hopes are now dwindling as well. Minnesota won again yday, so that means the Rangers are 4.5 games back w/ only eight more to play. I'm still a believer in the revenge angle though and not a believer in Oakland, whose current six-game win streak happens to be their longest of the entire season. As I said yday, there's an irony here w/ this Texas team as their run differential this year (+20) is greater than last year's (+8) when they won 95 games and homefield advantage in the American League playoffs! They did still cash for me on the run line yday, but today I'll call for an "outright" win.

The Rangers have scored only one run off A's pitching in two games, so that's something that clearly needs to change Sunday. Perhaps facing the struggling Jharel Cotton will help. Today's starter for the A's comes in w a 9.00 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his L3 starts. That's obviously not good, yet the A's have still managed to win the last two times he's taken the mound, as +155 and +170 dogs against Houston and Boston respectively. But at home this year, Cotton hasn't been very good w/ a 7.66 ERA and 1.608 WHIP. These are obviously some pretty bad numbers we're talking about here. For the year, the ERA is 5.88 and the WHIP is 1.484. Like I said earlier, the current A's win streak is also the longest of the season. This is a team that has spent most of the year at the bottom of the American League standings. While I'll tip my cap for what they've done the L2 days, note the other four victories came against the Phillies and Tigers. 

Martin Perez just might be the right guy to have on the mound today for Texas. He comes in having gone 7-1 w/ a 3.14 ERA his L9 outings (8-1 TSR). Last time out, he allowed just one run on four hits in a revenge spot against the Mariners. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts. Oakland is only 17-24 against southpaw starters in 2017. Bottom line is that this is a MUST win for the road team. That doesn't necessarily mean they HAVE to win, but I think they WILL. 10* Texas

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Almost universally predicted to be the worst team in the league, you could say things are going "according to script" for the Jets. Not only are they 0-2 straight up, they are 0-2 ATS, having lost their first two games by a combined 34 points. Last week was a 45-20 loss out in Oakland, so public sentiment figures to be even lower than normal, which is saying something. Miami is 1-0 (1st game postponed due to Hurricane Irma) as they were a lucky winner last week in Los Angeles. Three consecutive field goals in the 2nd half, the final one w/ just over a minute to go, rallied them back from a touchdown deficit and the Chargers (of course!) missed a potential GW field goal themselves as time expired. Miami is a team that I predicted would regress in 2017. Even against the Jets, I don't trust them in this lofty price range. 

  For years, taking the Jets against the Dolphins was smart move. Going into last year, they were on a 36-15-3 ATS run against their AFC East rival. But they got swept in 2017, including a 21-pt loss at home. But that blowout loss occurred late in the year when the season - for all intents and purposes - was over for New York. They lost by only four in the first meeting. Note that the Dolphins were favored only FIVE times last season (twice against Jets). They were a clear overachiever in making the postseason in Adam Gase's first season. There was a tremendous amt of good fortune that went their way, namely an 8-2 SU record in games decided by seven points or less. Doesn't the proverbial "worm" have to turn this year? 

Twice last year, the Dolphins were favored by a TD or more. They pushed against San Francisco and failed to cover against Cleveland, needing OT just to pull out the SU win. Both of those games were at home as well. Over the last decade, they've been a road favorite of six or more points just three times. While they won all three games straight up, they failed failed to cover twice, once against these Jets. Jay Cutler's debut went well enough last week, but he's nothing more than a stopgap and I'm not optimistic regarding his tenure here. I fully recognize that that taking the Jets can be a "dicey proposition," but I just don't trust Miami in this spot as they're a team that was nowhere near as good as their record last year and even against the perceived worst team in the league, this price range is not appropriate. 8* NY Jets

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): Public sentiment figures to be completely one-sided heading into this Week 3 matchup. At home, the Steelers took care of business last week, beating the Sam Bradford-less Vikings 26-9 as eight-point chalk. Meanwhile, the Bears were embarrassed on the road, losing 29-7 to Tampa Bay. The Steelers are 2-0 while the Bears are 0-2, but the pointspread is called "the great equalizer" for a reason and in this case, it's rather sizable. As discussed when I played against Pittsburgh back in Week 1 (at Cleveland), this price range has not suited them well during the Mike Tomlin era. That non-cover two weeks ago leaves them at 3-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than a touchdown under Tomlin. Throw in the fact that road favorites of 7 pts or more, no matter the team, have covered at just a 44% ATS rate since '03 and I'm taking the points.

Though dominated on the scoreboard last week, Chicago was actually pretty even in total yards vs. Tampa Bay (310-311). The problem was four turnovers, one of them a pick-six by QB Mike Glennon. Predictably, the Bears fanbase is calling for the rookie Mitchell Trubisky to take Glennon's place. But while Glennon didn't necessarily play well last week, he did complete 31 of 45 passes for 301 yards. An issue he is facing is that his receivers aren't very good (Markus Wheaton could debut this wk). Therefore, I'd like to see more of the Bears' ground game like in Week 1 when they went for 125 yds on 19 carries. Playing from behind almost the whole way last week negated the Bears' ability to run the ball. Remember this team did cover for me in Wk 1 against the defending NFC Champion Falcons. They're now 5-1 ATS as home dog of 3.5 to 7 pts. I thought this was a team that would improve in '17, so it's time to get going.

Under Tomlin, the Steelers are known to drop a road game that they shouldn't, almost on a yearly basis. Last year, there was a 34-3 stinker at Philadelphia (Week 3!) and a 30-15 loss at Miami, both coming when favored. I wouldn't be shocked if this is 2017's "egg." Note that the Black & Gold have not started a season 3-0 SU since 2010. Thus far, they've faced Cleveland (who started a rookie QB) and Minnesota (who started Case Keenum). So the defense hasn't really been tested. Were it not for a blocked punt returned for a TD in Wk 1, they may not have even beaten the Browns. Baltimore is on deck, so you could qualify this game as a "look ahead." Meanwhile, there's no looking ahead for the Bears, who have Green Bay on deck. A loss here and an 0-4 start is a distinct possibility. It's desperation time in the Windy City. 8* Chicago

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): The Giants are a disappointing 0-2 SU and ATS and coming off a Monday night loss (at home) to the Lions. An offense that quite frankly wasn't very good last season - with or without Odell Beckham Jr - continues to stink as it's now eight straight games being held under 20 points. That threshold is key for an Eagles team that is 8-0 SU in the Carson Wentz era (which began last year) when holding the opponent below 20 pts. Conversely, they are 0-10 SU when allowing 20+ pts after losing LW, 27-20 at Kansas City. So, can a Giants team that's managed only 13 pts in two games get to 20 this week? Maybe or maybe not, but the bottom line here is I think the points are generous here and if nothing else, adding that in will get the G-Men close enough.

The Giants have struggled in recent years against the Eagles, mainly due to a disadvantage in the trenches. I admit, that on paper, their offensive line against the Eagles' defensive line looks to be a mismatch that's not in their favor. But the Philly secondary is banged up right now and that's where I'm hoping Eli Manning, OBJ and the rest of the Giants' passing attack can take advantage. Four DB's missed practice on Wednesday, most notably star corner Ronald Darby, who was acquired in the offseason. There's a chance that all four injured DB's, a list that also includes CB Jaylen Watkins and safeties Rodney McCloud and Corey Graham could miss this game. In other words, I would not be shocked if this was a "coming out party" of sorts for Manning, who remember did not have OBJ in Wk 1. It would also be nice if Brandon Marshall could hold onto the ball. 

There's no real issue w/ the Giants defense IMO. One of the best in the league last year, I did expect them to take a bit of a step back here in 2017, but they've allowed just 43 points in two games. Maintaining such an average would certainly allow them to stay within the number here. Remember that Philly trailed 27-13 last week before scoring a garbage time TD. This team (the Eagles) have not fared well in games decided by seven points or less w/ Wentz at the helm, going an ugly 1-7 SU including last week. I expect a close game here, especially w/ the Giants in desperation mode (can't afford to drop to 0-3) and trying to erase an ugly 1-5 SU and ATS mark against the Eagles the L3 seasons. Take the points as 0-2 ATS teams on the road are 26-15 ATS since 2003 if the public is fading them (less than 50% bets). Plus, teams playing their home opener in Wk 3 are just 12-26-2 ATS since '03. 8* NY Giants

8* Over Ravens/Jaguars (9:30 AM ET): Our first London game of the season and of course the Jaguars are involved. This will be their fifth all-time appearance in the UK and they've won and covered the last two. This is also a much better Jags team than past editions. They opened the season w/ a 27-9 drubbing of Houston (I had them there), but laid an egg last week at home against Tennessee, losing 37-16 (dominated in the 2nd half). But this will be a stiff test going up against a 2-0 Baltimore team that's allowed only 10 pts on the year while forcing 10 turnovers. I'm not going to make a call on the side here, but I do like the game to go Over the relatively low total even though the L5 head to head meetings have all stayed Under. Like I said earlier, Jacksonville is better this year.

The big story here for the Ravens is that they are now w/o their best offensive lineman, Marshall Yanda. While this figures to have an adverse effect on both the running game and protecting Joe Flacco, I expect them to still be able to move the ball. Jacksonville's defense gave up nearly 400 total yards LW against Tennessee. The turnover issue could also be big here for the Ravens defense going against Blake Bortles. Bortles, who leads the league in interceptions the L3 seasons, is going up against the defense that has forced the most turnovers in the league to this point. So, like the Titans last week, don't be surprised if the Ravens get set up on a short field and take advantage.

This would be the fourth year in a row these teams have played and the O/U line is several points lower than any of the previous three matchups. Last year, the Ravens won a 19-17 game in Jacksonville (also in Week 3!) on the strength of four Justin Tucker field goals. Jacksonville had two drives in Baltimore territory end w/ Bortles' interceptions plus another w/ a missed field goal. While Cleveland and Cincinnati found little to no success against the Ravens defense, that was w/ a rookie QB and an inept offense that's already fired its coordinator. The Jags bring the strongest offense Baltimore will have faced to date. Offenses are struggling across this league, but you can "throw the numbers out" in an environment such as this where at least the Ravens are unfamiliar. This is a really low total and I think the teams will score enough to go Over. 8* Over Ravens/Jaguars

8* Arizona State (10:00 ET): The folks in Tempe are well accustomed to the heat, but I'm not sure anything is hotter right now than the seat Arizona State Todd Graham is sitting on as a 1-2 SU start has his six-year tenure here in real jeopardy. After B2B 10-win seasons in 2013 & '14, it's been B2B losing seasons in the desert and the bounce back some (myself included) thought might take place in 2017 has yet to materialize. To be fair, the Sun Devils were seven-point underdogs in last week's 52-45 loss at Texas Tech. Also, the loss to San Diego State that took place here at home two weeks ago no longer looks as bad w/ the Aztecs having since upset Stanford. So maybe things aren't as bad as they seem for Graham? All I know is I love the spot here for the Sun Devils as they're at home and hosting an Oregon squad laying double digits on the road for a second straight week. Take the points.

Arizona State did fall behind 21-3 in the 1st quarter and would go on to allow over 600 total yds (615 to be exact) LW at Texas Tech, but fought back valiently, even tying the game 45-45 in the 4Q. But the defense, a problem LY as well,  couldn't make a stop when needed and allowed TT to score the GW TD w/ under two minutes to go (capped 12-play, 90-yd drive). The week previous, it was a very even game w/ SD State, but allowing TWO touchdowns of 95+ yards (one a 99-yd kick return) was ultimately the Sun Devils' undoing. Offense has never been a problem under Graham, nor is it this season as QB Manny Wilkins has not thrown an INT in 149 pass attempts, a streak that dates back to last season. The backfield is back to full health w/ both Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage set to be on the field Sat night. WR N'Keal Harry is coming off a career game w/ 13 receptions for 148 yards. Overall, this offense is averaging 34 points and 412 yards per game. 

Oregon has an offense again under the direction of 1st year HC Willie Taggart. The Ducks, ranked again after a year absence in the polls, are rolling up over 600 YPG (2nd nationally) and have scored 42 pts in the 1st half of every game thus far. But it has been because of the defense that many feel there is a resurgence going on in Eugene. Me, I think it's been the schedule. After beating a FCS school (Southern Utah) in the season opener, the Ducks have beaten a Nebraska team that is not good by Power 5 standards and then a very overrated Wyoming team. The cover last week marked just the 2nd time in 11 tries that Oregon covered a double digit spread since Marcus Mariota left campus. They've beaten Arizona State 10 straight times, including 54-35 (as nine-point chalk) last season, but that final score was misleading as the underdog Sun Devils only trailed by five w/ just over six minutes to go. Not calling for an outright upset here, but the points certainly are plentiful as I need more proof before saying Oregon is "back." 8* Arizona State

8* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Last week, my top play was on MSU, an underdog that I called to win outright. They did just that, but the size of that victory over LSU (37-7!) left me really impressed with this team. As a matter of fact, I'll go so far as to call this the second best team in the entire SEC right now. They are 3-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average margin of 38.4 points per game! While it's going to be difficult to match the intensity and emotion of last week's home game, I was impressed enough with the performance that I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this team is good enough that they need not solely rely on emotion. It's a road game this week, at a place no MSU team has won since 1956 (9 straight losses), but that means we're again able to grab a generous number. We didn't need the points last week and we may very well not need them again here. Yes, there's the danger of an overreaction to "just one game," but this is no overreaction. Mississippi State is simply that good. Take the points. 

Given that the SEC is down this year, Miss State has a very realistic shot at finishing second in the West behind Alabama (who they host in November). Dan Mullen has a history of getting his teams to overachieve in Starkville, but this year's team might just be his best. Thanks to a vicious defense and QB Nick Fitzgerald (next Tim Tebow?), the Bulldogs have outscored their three opponents thus far 143-28! They are second nationally in both defensive and overall efficiency. Fitzgerald, a Georgia native, will be highly motivated here. He accounted for four touchdowns a week ago (2 rushing, 2 passing). MSU is the ONLY team in the country to rank in the top 10 in scoring on both sides of the ball. I have to admit that I was really surprised at this number, just as I was w/ last week's, given how well the Bulldogs have played to this point. 

Are we all forgetting that UGA may be starting a backup QB again here? Starter Jacob Eason did return to practice this week, but is not expected to play Sat night. Instead, it will be true frosh Jake Fromm. (Regardless, this play stands). Fromm did help engineer the upset of Notre Dame, but that was a one-point game that could have gone either way. Plus, Mississippi State is a far better team than Notre Dame. Kirby Smart's defense won't give up the same way LSU's did last week, but MSU has so many options that may not matter. These teams do not play often (1st meeting since 2011), but an edge for the road dog is that their DC (Todd Grantham) served in the same capacity at Georgia up until 2013. A couple of grad assistants on the MSU staff also worked for the UGA program previously. Safety Jonathan Allen transferred from UGA two years ago. For a second straight week, I'm betting on Mississippi State. 8* Mississippi State

10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): Conventional wisdom would say LSU will be angry bunch here and "out for blood" against a lesser opponent. But speaking as someone who played AGAINST them last week, I can safely say this edition of the Bayou Bengals is not as good as advertised. They were thoroughly dominated in a 37-7 loss (as 7.5-pt road favorites) at Mississippi State, looking every bit the inferior team last Saturday night. Worse yet, it appeared as if the players simply "gave up" well before the game had come to its rightful conclusion, which doesn't exactly speak well to Ed Orgeron, who I believe will eventually be exposed as the uninspired hire he truly was. One bad loss is by no means the end of the world in Baton Rouge, but the news continues to get worse as RB Derrius Guice is out here due to an "undisclosed" injury. I liked Syracuse plus the points before that announcement, so you can imagine my enthusiasm now. Not to mention, TWO Tigers defensive starters are suspended for targeting last week, meaning they'll both miss the first half here. 

Syracuse football has been down for awhile, but Dino Babers was a good hire to lead the program. The Orange went just 4-8 SU in his first year, but returned 19 starters (tied for most in the nation!) for '17 and thus there's some renewed optimism here w/ the faithful thinking bowl game this year. That optimism took a hit two weeks ago w/ an outright loss at the Carrier Dome to Middle Tennessee, but they bounced back nicely LW w/ a 41-17 beatdown of Central Michigan (579 total yds offense!). Under Babers, this offense will continue to score. Facing a LSU defense that's down two starters should allow for them to get off to a good start and ensure they can stay within the generous spread. 

Having a freshman take the place of Donnie Alexander is a real downgrade for that Tigers defense, which quite frankly was sloppy last week and committed way too many penalties. Syracuse is 4-2 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points the L2 seasons including an easy cover vs. this opponent in '15 at the Carrier Dome. They lost only 34-24 to a better LSU team. They're on the road this time, but they're a better team as well. LSU is just 2-8 ATS in the month of September the L3 seasons. Needless to say, I don't see them bouncing back w/ the fervor you might expect in this spot. They're not at full strength and will be playing front of a crowd that's likely to be less than enthusiastic. Jump on this one quickly. 10* Syracuse

8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Pirates at +1.5. The Cardinals "stole" one last night, rallying for two runs in the top of the ninth and prevailed 4-3. But I was still able to cash as I had the Bucs on the RL. The revenge angle is still in play here (Pit swept in StL earlier this month) though, so I'm playing Saturday's matchup the same way I did Friday's. It was an error that opened things up for the Cards last night and just the SECOND blown save of the season for Pirates' closer Felipe Rivero. Yes, these two NL Central rivals have been trending in opposite directions for some time now and St. Louis is trying to track down the final playoff spot in the National League. But they still have a losing road record and are playing their eighth straight game away from home. 

Compared to yday, I like tonight's pitching matchup even more from the Pirates' perspective. They'll give the ball to Gerrit Cole, the ace of the staff, who admittedly has been rather "feast or famine" as of late. But the last time Cole pitched here at PNC Park, he threw eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball against the Cubs (hard luck 1-0 loss). His strikeout numbers remain solid, but the number of walks has been a concern of late. But lack of run support has been the primary issue for him. I'd expect that to change tonight. Cole allowed only three hits in his last start. He has a 2.75 ERA in 13 career starts vs. St. Louis and pitched well the last time he faced them (7.14), giving up only two runs and four hits. In fact, he's allowed 2 ER or less all three times he's seen this division opponent in 2017. 

Lance Lynn gets the baseball for the visitors and he too has had some issues of late. He's lasted a total of only nine innings his L2 starts and had control issues himself (four walks) his last time out. Overall, the Cards have lost six of the last seven times he's taken the mound. He has a 6-11 TSR on the road for the season. He has a 4.50 ERA in 20 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Note that the Cards have played a total of 50 one-run games this season, third most in all of MLB. (They're just 22-28 in those games). Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

8* Rutgers (3:30 ET): Needless to say, things are not trending up right now in Lincoln. Nebraska has dropped B2B games, first to Oregon and then to Northern Illinois, and that has has HC Mike Riley firmly on the hot season. The Cornhuskers were very lucky to even cover two weeks ago in Eugene as they trailed 42-14 at the break, but shockingly Oregon was held w/o a point the entire second half (took their foot off the gas?). Then last week brought yet another dreadful start as NIU returned TWO interceptions for touchdowns, thus overcoming the fact Nebraska allowed only 213 total yds. Remember that I played against this team in Week 1 as well as they never were "in the money" vs. Arkansas State, winning only 43-36 as 14.5 pt favorites. While Riley is 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS off B2B SU losses in his time here, I want no part of laying points with this team, particularly double digits. 

Rutgers has suffered some severe "growing pains" since going a respectable 3-5 SU their first year in the Big 10 (2014). They've won just 1 of 16 conference games since and that lone victory came in the middle of the 2015 season. Last year saw them outgained by 231.2 yards and outscored by 30 points per game in Big 10 play. But this year, while they are still unlikely to escape the basement, the Scarlet Knights project to be much improved. They played Washington (playoff team from LY) tough in the opener, losing only 30-14 as four-TD underdogs at home. The following week was a major disappointment as they lost outright (were six-point favorites) at home to Eastern Michigan, 16-13 (led 13-10 in 2H). Last week saw them finally pick up a victory, 65-0 over a terrible Morgan State squad, which - if nothing else - will give them a bit of confidence heading into the conference opener. Freshman QB Jonathan Lewis accounted for five touchdowns in mop-up duty and I'm really hoping HC Chris Ash starts to turn to him more now, rather than Kyle Bolin. 

While Ash is well aware who is QB of the future (if not present) should be, Riley is at a bit of a "crossroads" right now w/ Tanner Lee, despite him being just three starts into his Nebraska career. A transfer from Tulane, Lee is only completing 52.5% of his passes and has already thrown SEVEN interceptions. The turnover bug will continue to prevent Nebraska from covering spreads such as this one if it's not remedied soon. As I said in my analysis for their first game though, the Cornhuskers were set to regress anyway this year as they are far less experienced now compared to 2016. Rutgers may not win this game, but they are a lot better now than the teams that lost to Nebraska by an average of 17.5 pts in 2014 and '15 (did not play LY). Another reason for optimism in New Brunswick is this year the Scarlet Knights will have the services of the dynamic Janorian Grant (WR) for Big 10 play (played only 4 gms LY), who is also a special teams ace. The Scarlet Knights played Iowa, Minnesota and Indiana tough a year go, losing to all by 7 pts or less. Offensively, they are in a much better position this year w/ Jerry Kill as the coordinator and defensively, their coordinator is Jay Niemann, who formerly served at Northern Illinois - a stop unit that just gave Nebraska fits. The Cornhuskers' avg time of possession ranks near the bottom of FBS and w/ Kill a run-heavy offense should play keep away here. 8* Rutgers

8* South Carolina (3:30 ET): This - I believe - is the lone matchup on the Saturday slate where we have a team off an outright loss as a favorite playing a team off an outright win as a dog and both are again in the same role this week. In fact, the favorite has yet to win, let alone cover, in any of South Carolina's three games this season. The Gamecocks seemed to have some positive momentum after a 2-0 SU start that saw them beat NC State and Missouri, both away from home. But then last week it was they who fell victim to an upset, losing 23-13 to Kentucky (here at home). As for La Tech, they are off a big C-USA road win, 23-22 over preseason favorite Western Kentucky (GW field goal came w/ two seconds left). Because of the disparate results from last week, bettors have pushed this number down far lower than it ought to be and there's substantial value w/ the chalk. Lay the points.

Perhaps we should have seen South Carolina's upset at the hands of UK coming. After all, they were outgained in both victories, giving up 500 total yards to NC State and 423 to Missouri. But w/ 16 starters back from LY, Will Muschamp's team should be just fine. They've played nothing but Power 5 foes to the points, so this drop in class (only non-SEC game in a six-week span) should be a "walk in the park" by comparison. Muschamp's defense will face a QB in J'Mar Smith that is only completing 51.5% of his passes to this point. This is not the same Bulldogs offense as last year when they put up the second most points per game in the country (behind only W Kentucky). They lost not only their starting QB but both top receivers as well. We've already seen La Tech take on one SEC team so far this year and it did not go well as they were buried 57-21 at home by Mississippi State. 

I really don't like the spot La Tech finds itself in this week as they are traveling for a second straight game following a big conference upset. They rallied from nine down in the 4Q to beat WKU last week and never led until two seconds were remaining on the clock. They were very fortunate to win. Last week, we saw a Central Michigan team in a similar spot, fresh off a beatdown of Kansas on the road (were underdogs) and they came out flat, losing 41-17 at Syracuse. The fact that it was a conference win for La Tech last week only makes the letdown seem more inevitable here. As for South Carolina, they certainly started strong last wk, scoring on a 68 yd TD pass on the first play from scrimmage. At that point, the Gamecock faithful had to be thinking Top 25 (as in they'd be ranked). But it was not to be. However, this week should atone for that performance as they are 40-1 SU when hosting non-conference opponents. The loss of WR Deebo Samuel (for the season) won't matter here. 8* South Carolina

8* Vanderbilt (3:30 ET): No one ever "feels good" when getting ready to play Alabama, but the bottom line is that this time around, Vandy has to feel like it at least has a fighting chance. The Commodores are 3-0 SU after an upset of #18 Kansas State last week here in Nashville. This will be the first time in a long-time that the CBS cameras are on campus for the big national TV game. It's Alabama's first visit here since '07 and b/c they aren't in the same division, it's the first meeting of any kind since '11. The importance of this game was not lost on HC Derek Mason back in August when he said  "So when we line up to play Alabama, we got to line up to play Alabama. ... When we face Alabama, we're going to be ready to play." To some, this has all the makings of a giant letdown for the Commies, but they have a defense good enough to keep them well inside the number. Take the points.

Bama is of course also 3-0 SU coming into this game and ranked #1 in the country. But despite an average margin of victory of 22 PPG, the Tide are hardly "rolling" coming into this SEC opener. They failed to cover against two Mt West teams, Fresno State and Colorado State, in Tuscaloosa. Granted both spreads were huge, but at no point in either game were they even covering. Last week saw the defense give up nearly 400 yards at home. Then, we must revisit the less than impressive season opener against Florida State, a game where they heavily relied on a +3 turnover margin as the offense gained only 269 total yds. This will be the best defense they've seen since then. (Vandy has allowed just 13 pts in three games!). In fact, Vandy comes in ranked 11th in defensive efficiency nationally! 

Look, Alabama is probably going to win this game. They last lost to Vanderbilt in 1993 (12 straight wins by 15 PPG) and are 23-1 SU vs. the SEC East since '09 w/ 18 straight wins. I wouldn't call next week's home game vs. Ole Miss a "look ahead," but the Rebels have given the Tide problems in recent years and that could be on the coaching staff's mind here. As for the best Vandy team in Mason's four years here, it's all about Saturday afternoon and you have to figure they are gonna give the top ranked team in the country their best shot. Provided the Commodores can put up a couple touchdowns here (nine returning starters on offense from LY), I see no reason why they won't stay inside this very generous number. They've covered 8 of 11 against teams w/ winning records and are 4-2 ATS the L2 seasons as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 pts. 8* Vanderbilt

8* South Alabama (2:00 ET): Idaho certainly played "well enough" to win last week at Western Michigan (outgained them 399-347), but ultimately came up short in a 37-28 loss at Kalamazoo. Now the Vandals, who I projected to regress anyway (finished 9-4 SU last year), find themselves playing the second of B2B road games. This is a tough spot as they've had to go from Moscow (Idaho, not Russia!) to Kalamazoo to Mobile in three straight weeks. That's a lot of travel. As for South Alabama, they too are 1-2 SU, but note they opened their season w/ a pair of Power 5 opponents (Ole Miss, Oklahoma State). Therefore, last week was a welcome reprieve as they got to welcome in Alabama A&M, which turned out to be a 45-0 win. I like the setup here far more from the USA perspective and will gladly lay the short number. 

Much of the rationale for this play has to do w/ the idea of regression to the mean. USA has not been a great spread team the last few seasons, including a 3-10 ATS mark in '16. They've covered just 4 of their last 16 conference games. Sure enough, they lost at Idaho last season, 38-31 as a five-point underdog. The Jaguars initially trailed 14-0, but rallied back to take a 28-24 lead early in the 2nd half. The game ended w/ USA in Idaho territory as the potential game-tying TD was incomplete. Such a result was indicative of Idaho's 2016 season as they finished 9-4 SU thanks to four upsets and a 4-0 SU mark in games decided by 7 pts or less. The Vandals have covered 12 of their 16 Sun Belt games, but the respect they are getting here from the oddsmakers seems like too much. USA might be only 3-7 ATS the L10 times it has been favored, but they've won 8 of those games straight up.

Let's not forget that it was just two weeks ago that Idaho lost to UNLV, a team that was one week removed from historic loss (were 45-pt favorites) to FCS Howard. Not only did they lose to UNLV, at home, but the final score was 44-16! Having played the likes of Ole Miss and Oklahoma State, this will be a huge drop in class for USA. The Jaguars are also 6-3 SU at home the L2 seasons. We need not be concerned w/ them starting Dallas Davis at QB again (starter Cole Garvin still injured) as not only did Davis throw for 255 yards last week, but he was the starter last season before losing the gig due to his own injury (shoulder). South Alabama was a bowl team last year and even beat a ranked San Diego State team here in Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Idaho, who remember is moving down to FCS next season, has not won a conference opener in three years. They lost their last visit to Mobile, 52-45, after blowing a 24-0 lead. 8* South Alabama

10* Arizona (10:30 ET): The Wildcats beat the Utes each of the latter's first four years in the Pac 12, three times as a dog, thus they also were a perfect 4-0 ATS. But last year was a down year in Tucson as Rich Rod's team went just 3-9 SU/2-10 ATS and missed out on the postseason for the 1st time in his tenure. They're a prime candidate to bounce back in 2017, at least in my opinion, and though they did lose here at home to Houston (19-16), they come into the Pac 12 opener at 2-1 SU, fresh off a 63-16 beatdown of UTEP (on the road) last Friday. Utah is both perfect straight up and against the spread thus far (3-0) including a seventh straight win in the "Holy War" vs. rival BYU. They too are off a lopsided victory, theirs coming Saturday night, 54-16 over San Jose State. But I'm not as high on the Utes in '17 and quite frankly am glad they're still unbeaten as that makes them pride fade material in this first conference game of the season.

Those four straight covers Arizona had over Utah saw them cover the spread by a combined 69 points! They led LY, in Salt Lake mind you, 14-12 at half but would be outscored 24-9 after that, mainly thanks to turnovers. In fact, the Wildcats finished the game w/ a slight edge in total yds (475-455), but that was undone by a -3 turnover margin (2 INT's in 3Q). Note Utah was coming in off a loss last year, as was Arizona, but the Wildcats were caught in the second of B2B road games. As I stated earlier, UA is much improved this year as Anu Solomon has thankfully been run off campus (Baylor) and Brandon Dawkins is firmly entrenched as the starting QB. Last week against UTEP, Dawkins accounted for SIX touchdowns, three of them rushing. Don't be surprised if he ends up being the difference maker Friday night.

Yes, it was UTEP, but the 63-16 margin of victory is made more impressive by the fact Arizona didn't even score in the first quarter! I've also been impressed w/ improvement on the other side of the ball as they've allowed just 18 pts the L6 quarters, going back to the Houston game (allowed only 2 pts in 2H). Early returns on the new Utah offense (more pass-heavy) seem promising w/ Tyler Huntley (4 TD's last week) leading the way, but let's see how they do in conference play. Arizona's rushing attack has been the difference in the past against the Utes, so don't be surprised if the favorite - again - struggles to stop the read option. The Wildcats are averaging 328 yards rushing so far, thanks to the talented duo of JJ Taylor and Nick Wilson, plus Dawkins. 10* Arizona

8* Texas (10:05 ET): The Rangers have revenge here, as believe it or not, they got swept by the A's (here in Oakland) late last month. While Oakland has proven itself to be significantly better at home (than on the road), I don't see history repeating itself this go-around. Not w/ the Rangers desperately clinging to playoff hopes while the A's are simply relegated to playing out the string. Both teams enter on four-game win streaks w/ Texas sweeping Seattle and Oakland doing the same to Detroit to start the week. But all this has simply created a situation where there's now value on Texas, who has the 5th best run differential in the American League at +24. That's a better run diff than LY's team (+8) that won 95 games! Funny how regression works out sometimes, no? 

Though they swept Texas last month and are currently riding a four-game win streak, there's no denying that the A's have been one of the AL's worst teams in 2017. They've been outscored by 90 runs over the course of the season and have occupied last place in the West most of the year. Their 790 runs allowed are third most in all of baseball w/ only a couple of NL teams (Mets and Reds) having given up more. Kendall Graveman will toe the rubber this evening and while he's still unbeaten at home this year (4-0 in nine starts), I'm not about to start anointing him a Cy Young contender. The team is just 7-10 in his 17 starts overall this year. His last start, on 9.16 vs. Philadelphia, was cut short due to rain. Graveman was pretty fortunate to get away w/ only allowing one run when he faced the Rangers last month as he also allowed nine hits in 7 IP. His ERA in seven career starts vs. the Rangers is 4.57.

Texas enters the day 2.5 games back of Minnesota for that 2nd Wild Card. Six of their remaining nine games are against the A's, which is favorable. Prior to being swept by them last month, they'd gone 6-3 head to head in the season series. It's now down to a three-team race w/ them, the Twins and Angels. LA just got swept by Cleveland and is now in Houston, so their projection isn't looking so rosy. Nick Martinez is by no means Texas' best starter (probably the worst!), but like every other member of the rotation, he's turned a profit in 2017. His 1.039 WHIP his L3 starts says that his 0-3 TSR over the same time is misleading. He allowed only three runs on four hits (7 IP) when he squared off w/ Graveman and the A's last month. Texas desperately needs the win here. 8* Texas

10* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Pirates +1.5. I have St. Louis ranked just above both Milwaukee and Colorado in my own power rankings (#9 overall). Unfortunately for the Redbirds though; they trail both in the chase for the 2nd NL Wild Card. However, that gap is shrinking as they're only 0.5 games back of the Brew Crew (who lost last night) and 1.5 games back of Colorado (who also lost last night). So don't rule out St. Louis to the playoffs just yet. However, last time they faced the Pirates, they swept them. You know what that means. I'll be on the other side here as it's become increasingly difficult to sweep the same opponent twice in a row. Just to be "safe," I'll grab the added insurance that the RL provides. 

That aforementioned sweep took place two weeks ago in St. Louis. The Pirates totaled just four runs in the three games, but their hitters should fare far better at home this weekend. The Cards still have a losing road record (38-40) even after sweeping lowly Cincinnati to start the week. That includes just a .500 mark when favored in the -125 to -175 range (7-7). Friday starter Michael Wacha was great when he faced the Bucs at home on 9.10, shutting them out for eight innings. But the road has been a different story for Wacha as he owns a 5.07 ERA and 1.535 WHIP. Last time out, on the road, he was far less effective as he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 IP and there were major control issues w/ five walks. The Cards lost that game, 4-1 to the Cubs. 

Ivan Nova will again face off w/ Wacha here. Nova was the losing pitcher back on 9.10. But he was better in his last start, giving up just two runs on three hits, even though the Bucs still lost that one. Once again, the home vs. road splits w/ these teams and pitchers becomes vital as Nova has a 9-2 TSR at PNC Park this year, not to mention a 2.87 ERA and 1.159 WHIP. The Pirates also have the advantage here of having had Thursday off while St. Louis was wrapping things up in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has been absolutely dreadful on the road this year, but has a winning record at home. They'd dropped 12 of 13 overall before a walkoff win over Milwaukee (helped St. Louis!) Wednesday night, so you have to think at least a minor turnaround is imminent. I look for the home team to do no worse than a one-run loss in this one. 10* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

8* LA Rams (8:25 ET): The 49ers are 0-2 straight up (1-1 ATS), but realistically, that's what you should have expected them to be at this point. I say that as someone who's had them each of the last two weeks. They failed to cash for me in Wk 1, losing 23-3 at Carolina. But then they were my top play in Week 2 as they covered wire to wire in Seattle, losing only 12-9 as massive two touchdown underdogs. As for the Rams, they turned heads in Wk 1 by walloping the Colts, 46-9. But then they came back "down to Earth" last week, losing at home to Washington 27-20. When lines were initially released over the summer, the Rams were set not to be favored a single time in the first 15 weeks. But, given the Colts were w/o QB Andrew Luck and the size of that victory, this will shockingly mark the third straight time they are in the chalk role! They have double revenge from LY (49ers' only two wins!) and look to be much improved. Meanwhile, you can't say the same for the lowly 49ers. No upset this week on TNF. Lay the short number.

Two weeks into the Kyle Shanahan regime and the Niners have yet to score a single TD. They've totaled only 12 points overall. A gifted offensive mind, Shanahan brought his system over from Atlanta, but unfortunately for him not the players. Brian Hoyer is the starting QB and he's been pretty dreadful thus far, throwing for just 255 yds - total. Last week, he completed 15 passes for 89 yards (a pitiful 3.27 yards per attempt). The offense was able to run the ball some (159 yds on 19 carries), but will be facing a stout front four here, coached by Wade Phillips. I expect the Rams' defense, under Phillips, to develop into one of the best in the league once Aaron Donald (returned last wk) gets back into form. Facing a bad offense in Week 1, the Rams allowed just 225 total yds w/o Donald. Philips called Donald "rusty" in his return last week, but I doubt that lasts for long. 

First year HC Sean McVay (youngest in the league) has been charged w/ turning around the Rams' offense, which was so awful under predecessor Jeff Fisher. QB Jared Goff has looked much more comfortable under McVay and it helps that RB Todd Gurley also seems to have regained his form from two seasons ago. It's rare to find the Rams in the chalk role on the road (happened only 4 times since 2010), but here it's justified due to it being a double revenge spot as mentioned above. Actually, the Rams have lost three straight times to the 49ers dating back to '15. They won't lose again here as the team actually appears to be trending toward mediocrity while the 49ers still reside at the bottom of the league. 8* LA Rams

10* Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): This is a very big series, rife w/ playoff implications. The Cubs, who "sleepwalked" through the 1st half of the season, now seem "safe" as a probable playoff entrant as they lead the division by 3.5 games and have a better record than the second place Wild Card team (Colorado). That's thanks to a seven-game win streak, which ended yday, but still the defending World Series Champs appear to be in good shape heading into what is a revenge spot vs. Milwaukee. The Brew Crew are attempting to chase down either the Cubs or the Rockies (1 gm back of Wild Card), but suffered their own loss yday, in walk-off fashion no less. I'm sure the Cubs remember getting swept at Wrigley by the Brewers earlier this month and they'll be eager to return the favor. 

Tonight's series opener marks the return of Jake Arrieta to the Cubs' rotation. The former Cy Young winner last pitched on September 4th when he tweaked his hamstring in a disastrous 12-0 loss to the Pirates. But I'm not concerned as he reportedly checked out well in a bullpen session Tuesday and has posted a 1.98 ERA since the All-Star Break. Arrieta missed the last series w/ the Brewers, but is 2-0 against them in '17, having allowed just 3 ER in 13 IP w/ 16 strikeouts. After being swept at home by Milwaukee, the Cubs rattled off those seven straight victories before Jon Lester simply "did not have it" last night and they lost 8-1 to the Rays. But even after scoring just three runs in two games at Tropicana Field, the Cubs' offense has still managed to average over 7.0 rpg since that aforementioned sweep. 

Zach Davies will get the nod here for Milwaukee. Though he has an 8-6 team start record here, he has not pitched particularly well at home this season as he has a 5.67 ERA and 1.588 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed six runs to Miami (in just four innings) and remember that was here at Miller Park due to Hurricane Irma. That's one of just three losses for the team in the L12 games as they've won three straight three times, only to be followed by a loss every time. Last night's loss to Pittsburgh in the final at-bat was certainly discouraging and I just don't see this as a playoff team. If anyone is to catch Colorado for that 2nd Wild Card, I think it would be St. Louis, not Milwaukee. The fact that Davies has been the Brew Crew's most profitable starter to bet on this season (+8.75 units) speaks volumes considering the mediocre 3.99 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Davies did allow only one run in seven innings when he faced the Cubs in that sweep earlier this month, but should consider himself fortunate as he allowed seven hits. The Cubs are 23-11 this season as ML road favorites of -125 to -175 (71-29 L3 seasons!) while Milwaukee is 4-7 in that same range as a home dog (19-36 L3 seasons). So this is a "favorable" price we're getting on the Cubbies here. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Run Line LA Angels (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Angels at +1.5. What shaped up as a vital series for the home team has turned into a blown opportunity, at least thus far. Minnesota, who leads the Angels by 1.5 games in the chase for the AL's 2nd Wild Card, was just swept by the Yankees. However, the Halos have been unable to make up any ground during this time due to the unfortunate draw of playing Cleveland (who's 26-1 L27 games!) this week. Still, I thought this series set up well for LA as they avoid both of the Indians' top two pitchers, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. They've certainly competed, even cashing on the RL for me last night, but yet to come away w/ a victory. Not sure if that'll change after this afternoon, but the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Angels still have revenge from a prior sweep by the Indians, back in July. Not only are they 0-5 against the Tribe in 2017, but they are 1-11 against them since the start of last season (3-15 L3 seasons). My view has always been that it's increasingly difficult in today's game to sweep the same opponent two straight times. So this is the Angels' last shot. It's interesting that after being bet to a small favorite and virtual pick 'em (sharp money!) the L2 days, the Halos almost certainly will close as a decided dog today. That's despite that this spot will have them sending their best pitcher to the mound, that being Parker Bridwell, who has a 15-2 TSR and is by far and away #1 in net units among all starting pitchers at +16.1 for the season. Here at home, Bridwell threw six shutout innings in his last start, allowing only three hits as the Angels beat Cole Hamels and the Rangers, 2-0. 

All of Cleveland's starters have been lights out during this 26-1 run of theirs, but today will see Danny Salazar make just his second start since the streak began. The first try, which took place back on Sept 5, did not go so well. He lasted all of two-thirds of an inning and gave up four runs. Cleveland still managed to come back and win, 9-4, helped by the fact they were facing the sorry White Sox. But still, Salazar (who has been working out of the bullpen lately) is definitely on "thin ice" and probably not long for the starter's role come playoff time. He was taken out of the rotation for a reason and that's he simply had not been that effective this year. He has a 5.57 ERA and 1.631 WHIP on the road this year. Again, it's interesting to note that Cleveland's historic run pretty much began right after Salazar was removed from the rotation. The Angels need this game badly, much more than the Indians, and I have to believe their offense (Mike Trout specifically) is due to get back on track. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* Run Line LA Angels (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Angels at +1.5. Make it 25 wins in the last 26 games for Cleveland, who prevailed 6-3 in Tuesday's series opener. I got that one wrong as did the "sharp money," which was on the Angels as well. As good as the Indians have been though, they are "due" to slow down sooner or later and this remains a very critical series for their opponent. The Halos still trail Minnesota (who also lost last night) by 1.5 games for the second Wild Card in the American League. Last night's loss was a blown opportunity to make up ground, but I still like the way this series sets up for the home team. They avoid Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco plus they have revenge for a prior series sweep (back in July). Given how well the Tribe has played, however, the run line seems like a more prudent move. 

Though they were outhit by a 2:1 margin, the Angels were able to stay close for eight innings last night. They blew a golden opportunity in the fifth when they had runners at the corners, and nobody out, but only got one runner home. It was a 3-2 game entering the ninth, but that's when Cleveland broke loose for three runs, effectively putting the game out of reach. Incredibly, the Angels are now 1-10 the L2 seasons vs. Cleveland including 0-4 in '17 (3-14 L3 seasons!). But today, they draw the "weak link" of the Indians' rotation, that being Josh Tomlin, who comes in w/ a 5.04 ERA. Since returning to the rotation earlier this month, Tomlin has yet to go six full innings in any of his three starts. The team is only 11-12 w/ him on the mound this year, putting them down -6.35 units. Kluber, Carraso and Mike Clevinger have all turned profits this season, so this is the Angels' best shot - on paper - at beating Cleveland. Really, given the pitchers that they faced, tonight's line makes no sense compared to yday.

The Angels have played more one-run games (46) than any other team in the American League, so that's another reason to like the RL in this situation. They are also 42-31 off a loss this season and have dropped three in a row only three times since being swept by Cleveland in that late July series. Having Ricky Nolasco, their least profitable pitcher, on the hill may seem problematic here. But he pitched well last time out, allowing just two runs on four hits to Houston. The Angels still lost mind you, 5-2, but it was still a positive sign to see Nolasco pitch well. He allowed only three runs in 6 2/3 IP against Cleveland two months ago, another encouraging sign. The Indians are going to drop a game in the series (I feel it!), so why not tonight? 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): Curiously, the Reds have given the Cardinals plenty of trouble here in 2017, winning 9 of the 17 head to head matchups. But the tide has started to turn w/ the Cards winning three of four over the last week, including a 10-inning affair on Tuesday, 8-7. Seeing as Cincy twice blew a lead last night (including 4-0 after three innings), you have to figure they also blew their best shot at winning a game in this series. It's not like the home team has much to play for here. As for the Redbirds, this series is huge as they face not only a six-game deficit in the division, but a 2.5 game one for the second NL Wild Card. Considering they'll send out a pitcher (Luke Weaver) that just shut out the Reds six days ago, you have to like their chances tonight. 

Weaver has been huge for the Cardinals' rotation. He made his 2017 debut back on 7.27 in Arizona. It was a bit of a rocky showing as he surrendered four runs in five innings and St. Louis lost 4-0. But since then, he's been light's out. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in six straight starts, all team wins. Three times, he hasn't even allowed a single earned run. Last time out, it was just one of the unearned variety as he allowed only two hits in 6 IP against this same opponent. We're talking about a pitcher w/ a sub-1.00 WHIP here and in his L3 starts, the ERA is 0.96. With Cincinnati batting just .222 its L7 games, I see no reason why Weaver shouldn't dominate yet again. You also have to like his 50-6 KW ratio during the six-game win streak.

The Reds are simply playing out the string and have given up the most runs in all of baseball. Here they start the appropriately named Rookie Davis, who is in fact a rookie! Davis has made five starts in 2017, but none since early May. Looking at his numbers, you can see why. He posted a 7.58 ERA and 2.211 WHIP. It takes a special kind of bad to find your way out of this Reds' starting rotation, but Davis managed to do just that. After spending the summer down in Louisville (Triple A), he was recalled once that season ended. He has made one appearance out of the bullpen and "true to form," gave up two runs in two innings. There's no Billy Hamilton in the Reds lineup right now and while he's not a great hitter, he can definitely affect a game on the basepaths. I just can't see Cincinnati giving a better effort than they did last night, which means another loss is on the horizon. 8* St. Louis

10* Oakland (1:10 ET): The Detroit Tigers are a really bad baseball team right now. To be fair, they were never really "good" at any point here in 2017, but lately things have REALLY nosedived as they've dropped 15 of 19 games here in September to fall to 27 games below .500 and they have the worst run differential (-124) in the entire American League. If that's not enough, they've even dropped two straight here at home to the A's, who came in w/ the worst road record in all of baseball. Yesterday was particularly soul-crushing as Oakland was able to rally back from a four-run deficit to take the game 9-8. The A's have had no issue scoring in this series (17 runs in two games), so facing a terrible pitcher like Anibal Sanchez, you have to like them to finish off the sweep this afternoon.

When handicapping the MLB card, I assign every starter a "score" as to reflect how I think they'll perform in the upcoming game. Here, Sanchez gets one of the lowest ones I've ever assigned. Sure, he has a 7-7 team start record, but his ERA and WHIP are 6.42 and 1.515 respectively. Lately, things have only gotten worse as in his L3 starts, those numbers are 7.59 and 1.968. Despite that, the Tigers have managed to win two of those three games, which is a major reason I'm looking to play against here. Any kind of sustained success w/ a pitcher of this caliber on the mound should be considered fortunate at best. Now, his last time out saw Sanchez give up only one run in 6 IP w/ a season-best 11 K's. But that was against the White Sox. It was also his best start of the entire year and thus is (highly) unlikely to be duplicated here. 

Oakland, meanwhile, has a red hot pitcher going today. Daniel Mengden has a 2.75 ERA and 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all team wins. He is coming off a CG, two-hit shutout at Philadelphia last Friday. The A's may not be a good road team, but they actually own a winning record in day games this season. Their lineup should continue to take advantage of a Tigers' pitching staff that allows 5.5 runs per game at home this season. One hitter in particular to watch is rookie Matt Olson, who has homered in five consecutive games. Take it from me; Sanchez is very bad and must be played against here. 10* Oakland

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Cleveland has now won 24 of its last 25 games, an incredible achievement that has them a top the American League standings and currently listed as the favorite to win the World Series. Impressive as this stretch of baseball has been (and make no mistake about it, the Tribe have been very impressive), let's note that they've been beating up on a trio of bad teams - Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit - a lot during the streak. Those three teams have accounted for 17 of those 24 wins. They've faced just one playoff probable during the 24-1 run, that being the Yankees, who they did sweep (in NY). But now they are set to hit the West Coast for the next six games and I see a prime fade opportunity here against the Angels. There have been a couple of key indicators w/ the line that have confirmed my suspicion. 

The Angels enter Tuesday 1.5 games back of the Twins, who lost yday, for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the American League. Like the Indians, they've mostly been beating up on lesser opponents since the All-Star Break, but were swept in Cleveland back in late July. That makes this is a revenge spot. Starting tonight will be Tyler Skaggs, who has mediocre numbers in seven starts, but happens to also be coming off an absolute gem. In perhaps his strongest outing of the entire season, Skaggs tossed seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball against Houston, here at home last Wednesday. Skaggs did not face Cleveland in the previous series as he was still on the D.L. It should be noted that while they've continued to win, the Indians' offense has been held to three runs or fewer in four of their past six games.

Mike Clevinger goes tonight for Cleveland. Playing against the likes of Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco is unwise right now, so a Clevinger start offers a rare spot to fade this red-hot ballclub. Isn't it telling that the Tribe, despite what they've done this month, come in as slight underdogs on the ML? Sure enough, Clevinger's worst start of the year came against the Angels as he allowed six runs in 4 1/3 innings. The offense bailed him out in an 11-7 win, but still we at least know the Halos are capable of getting to him. It would be unfair to label Clevinger the "weak link" in the Indians' rotation, but there's a good shot he won't be starting much in the playoffs. He's currently in the best stretch of his career (6-0 TSR L6 starts), but that's due to end. Cleveland is also probably "due" to start giving some back at the pay window as well. 10* LA Angels

6* Houston (8:10 ET): Believe it or not, the White Sox actually swept the Astros the last time they faced off, which was last month. Since the All-Star Break, the AL West leaders have been mediocre at best (31-29 overall), potentially costing themselves homefield advantage (Cleveland has passed them). But, things appeared to have "turned a corner" recently w/ Houston winning four straight coming into this week's rematch. They swept Seattle over the weekend, doing so in fairly dominant fashion. As for the White Sox, they have the worst overall record in the American League (60-89) even after winning six of nine (lost 12-0 on Sunday). They've been relegated to "playing out the string" and I don't see them beating the Astros this time now that they have to travel to Minute Maid Park. It's a high price on the favorite, but certainly justified. 

Over the L3 seasons, Houston is 41-12 when priced on the money line between -175 and -250 and at home. So history says this should be an easy one. Trailing the Indians by 1.5 games in the race for best record in the American League, this is a series the Astros probably need to sweep (Cleveland is in LA to face the Angels). They'd hoped Lance McCullers would be ready to start Monday's opener, but his arm fatigue issues have persisted, thus it will be Colin McHugh going instead. That's fine by me as McHugh has a 0.53 ERA in three home starts so far. He was rocked for seven runs (in 5 1/3 IP) the last series against Chicago, but since then has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all five starts, albeit not always going deep into games. But still, the White Sox are not a good road team (26-49 overall) and are in the bottom 10 in both runs scored and OBP. Sunday saw them come within one out of being no-hit by the Tigers' Matthew Boyd. 

The White Sox are just 2-5 after being shut out this year and 5-9 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. They're only 5-11 when taking the field after an off-day. So the trends don't favor them here nor do the odds. Can starter Lucas Giolito alone stem the tide? I think not. Giolito has pitched well in limited duty (five starts), but has also benefited from facing some of the game's worst offensive teams to this point. Houston happens to rank #1 in all of baseball in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging! This won't be a fun time for the young starter as the Astros are also 72-36 this year when facing a right-handed starter. 6* Houston

10* NY Giants (8:25 ET): Coming off an embarrassing offensive performance last Sunday night, the Giants figure to be fairly unpopular favorite this week on MNF. But those of us that studied this team in the offseason knew that it would be an offensive struggle this year as QB Eli Manning and company were simply not very good last year, Odell Beckham Jr or not. In 17 games LY (including playoff loss at Green Bay), the G-Men were held to 20 pts or fewer ELEVEN times. With OBJ's status for Monday questionable at best, you may be thinking now is an opportune time to fade Big Blue in the chalk role, but I'm even "colder" on their opponent, who is actually in a better position to fade. The Lions were an even more fradulent playoff team a year ago and coming off yet another come from behind win (9th in 2 seasons!), I say their luck is due to run out. 

Detroit found itself down 10-0 early LW at home to Arizona and trailed 17-9 late into the third quarter. That's when things turned, however, as Detroit would go onto score four touchdowns (one from the defense) to pull off a 35-23 win. Of the team's nine wins last year, eight came by a TD or less and none were against playoff teams. I am very low on their prospects this year and have predicted a last place finish for them in the NFC North. The defense last year gave up the highest completion percentage in league history! So there's hope for the Giants offense yet! Let's note that Detroit really benefited from Arizona losing RB David Johnson last week as the Cards offense looked lost w/o its best player. Quite simply, I don't think the Lions are a very good team.

Defensively, the Giants should have a massive edge in this game. While the offense struggled last week, Big Blue's defense allowed only one touchdown in the 19-3 loss. This was one of the top defenses in the league a year ago and figures to be again in 2017. So don't expect Lions QB Matthew Stafford to complete 70 percent of his pass attempts again. Coming home, off a loss, New York is a somewhat desperate team in this spot. They're hungrier and better than the Lions and this is a small number to lay. The Giants are 8-3 ATS their L11 games where the line is three points or less including 3-1 SU/ATS as a home favorite. Beckham or not, they'll find a way to score enough in this "must-win" spot. 10* NY Giants

10* Boston (7:05 ET): I realize that Baltimore is returning home here (where they are significantly better), but it's "all over but the shouting" here after a 2-8 trip that's left them four games below .500 and most importantly 5.5 games back of the Wild Card. A -60 YTD run differential pretty much confirms this is NOT a legit playoff contender. Furthermore, their 44-30 home record is a little misleading in the sense that they allow the same number of runs per game (4.9) as they score. Boston comes in still atop the AL East (three-game lead over the Yankees) and had a three-game losing streak snapped Sunday w/ a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay. What puts them "over the hump" as a play for me today is they come in w/ revenge as the O's actually swept them at Fenway last month. That won't happen again. 

Doug Fister is off a rare poor outing for Boston as he gave up six runs in 4 IP last Wednesday against Oakland. That's more runs allowed than in his previous four starts combined! He comes in w/ a very nice 0.932 WHIP on the road this season, albeit that's only in four starts. Still though, Fister has proven himself to be very reliable as six of his last eight starts have been quality ones. That includes him allowing just two runs on five hits to Baltimore back on 8.27, a start that ended up as a 2-1 loss for the Red Sox. Another big key here is the Red Sox have shown themselves to be an excellent bounce-back team as their record off a loss is 41-23 this year. Offensively, they are top 10 in runs scored, batting average and OBP.

Baltimore just isn't good enough on the runs allowed side of the ledger to realistically contend. They are 27th in ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average and are tied for 26th in quality starts. Dylan Bundy has arguably been their best starter in 2017 and will go Monday. Like Fister, he's pitched well of late, save for one start. (Bundy's bad one came here at home, two starts ago, vs. the Yankees). This will actually be Bundy's fifth time facing the Red Sox in 2017. So far, he's had mixed results (2-2 TSR) even though he's never allowed more than 2 ER (surprising). But the Red Sox hitters should definitely be familiar w/ him at this point and don't be surprised when they hit a couple of home runs tonight, something that has hurt Bundy at times this year. Eight different times, Bundy has allowed multiple home runs. For the sake of comparison, that's happened to Fister only ONE time this season and it was in his third start. 10* Boston

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): As it stands now, this would be your American League Wild Card Game. In a one-game playoff, I'd figure the Yankees would be bigger favorites on the money line than they are here. There's just no two ways around it; they are a superior ballclub compared to the Twins in virtually every conceivable way. While Minnesota has barely outscored its opponents this year (+9), the Yanks hold the second best run differential in all of MLB at +174, trailing only the Indians (+227)! There was some overnight line movement that triggered this play as well as the ML went up despite the majorty of tickets coming in on the underdog. That tells me smart money likes the home team here and so do I. 

Minnesota's transformation from a 100+ loss team last year to a playoff contender in '17 is pretty shocking. Their competition for the last playoff spot is dropping like flies as it seems it will come down to them and the Angels. They beat Toronto yday 13-7 and will have their top pitcher on the mound Monday, that being Ervin Santana.  That all sounds nice, but Santana has not fared well in his career vs. the Yankees. He has a 5.78 ERA in 19 starts, though none of them have come this year. The problems have really come here in the Bronx and don't figure to subside here as the pinstripe-clad lineup he'll face tonight is among the best in baseball. Against Baltimore over the weekend, the Yankees scored 34 runs (in four games) and slugged 12 home runs. They are now 2nd in MLB in runs scored and also in the top eight in batting average, OBP and slugging. 

Minnesota has swung the bats well recently too; tying a franchise record w/ at least one HR in 16 consecutive contests. But they're up against a team that's tied for the best home run differential in all of baseball. The Yankees score 5.6 rpg here at home, tied for third most in all of baseball and obviously Colorado is one of the two teams ahead of them. Looking at the other side of the ledger, the Yankees are doing well too as they are top five in ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average. Jaime Garcia will toe the rubber tonight. He's actually winless in six starts since coming over to the team, but that's a little misleading as he's given up 3 ER or fewer five straight times and the Yankees have won three of those games (one loss to Cleveland). The Yanks had won seven of eight prior to Sunday's loss to Baltimore and I don't see them slowing down in this series. 8* NY Yankees

8* Green Bay (8:25 ET): Both of these teams won in Week 1, but it wasn't easy. It never is when Atlanta plays outdoors, but realistically they could have lost outright to the Bears as a goal line stand was required to preserve a 23-17 victory. I was on the dog there and they covered. Green Bay also had a somewhat ugly win, but at least they had the "excuse" of facing Seattle. All things considered, beating the Seahawks 17-9 is no small achievement. To me, the better team is getting points in this matchup. Yes, I remember what happened when these teams met in LY's NFC Championship Game (I was on Atlanta) as the Falcons raced out to a 31-0 advantage. But that will only serve to motivate a Packers team that is 7-2 ATS otherwise the L2 yrs as an underdog. Home teams tend to struggle their first couple seasons in a new stadium, so I'm taking the points. 

That NFC Championship Game loss is the ONLY time Aaron Rodgers and company have been beaten since Thanksgiving. The Pack are 9-1 L10 games (reg season & playoffs) and I've got them as the favorite in the NFC this season. Yes, they clearly benefited from a terrible block in the back call last week, not to mention a Russell Wilson turnover inside the 5-yard line. But I was impressed w/ how the defense played and think it will be a much different story here compared to what we saw last January in Atlanta. Not allowing a touchdown is pretty impressive (unless you're playing the Bengals!) and the Pack held Seattle to just 225 total yds last week. They finished w/ a 26-12 edge in first downs, so it really was a pretty dominant performance when you break it down. With the addition of Davon House, the GB secondary is a lot better equipped to handle Atlanta's passing attack this go around. 

Playing outdoors is a conveinent excuse for the Falcons offense last week, but the bottom line is I find it impossible to believe they'll be matching LY's production. OC Kyle Shanahan has moved on and there's just some natural regression that should take hold. Consider that Atlanta had just 13 pts heading into the fourth quarter last week. They were out-first downed and 88 of their 372 total yds came on one crucial TD pass. Interestingly, the Falcons are 0-3 ATS their last three times as a home favorite of three points or less, losing two of the games outright. They're just 8-14 ATS the L22 times they've been favored overall. 8* Green Bay

10* Washington (8:05 ET): Don't tell the Nationals that the Dodgers are having an awful September as LA has come to the Nation's Capital and taken the first two of a three-game set between division leaders. After infamously losing 15 of 16 games, Dodger Blue has now won four straight and thanks to what they've done in this series, it's looking more and more like the will end up w/ home field advantage in the National League playoff draw. As for Washington, their destiny is likely the 2nd seed as they've already wrapped up the East. It should be noted that the Dodgers have lucked out somewhat to this point in the series as they've avoided both Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg, the Nats' two best pitchers. That changes tonight, however, as they face the latter. 

Strasburg has been the definition of lights out recently. Well, that's putting things midly. For four consecutive starts he has not allowed a single run. His scoreless streak currently stands at 34 innings. Perhaps the most impressive thing regarding Strasburg this season has been him not giving up many home runs. In 156 2/3 IP this year, he's allowed only 13, none in the last four starts. That's the fewest in all of baseball. Last time out, he was able to hold Rhys Hoskins w/o a long ball, the only time in a six-game stretch the Phillies' rookie didn't homer. The Dodgers lineup has fared no better against Strasburg in the past, owning a collective .183 (22 for 120) batting average when facing him. In six career starts vs. LA, Strasburg has a 2.82 ERA, having allowed 2 ER or fewer five times. Earlier this year, he held them to two runs (one earned) in a hard-luck 2-1 loss opposite Clayton Kershaw. 

It won't be Kershaw pitching here for the Dodgers though. Instead it will Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu's recent numbers are skewed by one bad outing at Arizona on 8.30 when he allowed six runs in four innings. He has not pitched since 9.5 as his spot in the rotation wa simply skipped. That doesn't speak too well to the team's confidence in him. Ryu is just 5-7 in 21 starts this year (11-10 TSR), so he really hasn't shared in the team's overwhelming success. Earlier this year, Ryu lost his first and only career start against the Nationals. Bottom line is that w/ Strasburg pitching, this is an incredible price on the Nats at home, especially considering they're looking to avoid being swept. Strasburg gets the job done yet again. 10* Washington

10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): There's an old adage that you can "throw the records out" when it comes to a division rivalry, but in the case of Seahawks-49ers things have grown rather one-sided since Jim Harbaugh bolted from the Bay Area. San Francisco has not beaten this NFC West rival going back to 2013, a span of seven meetings. Worse yet, they are just 1-10 ATS the L11 matchups w/ that one cover coming in LY's final meeting when they were double digit dogs. The number is even more freindly this go around though, at two touchdowns, and given Seattle's offensive issues that makes it a play for me. Double digit dogs in divisional games are 105-75 ATS going back to 2005.

Kyle Shanahan is the third HC in as many years for the 49ers. There's plenty of work to be done here after the failed regimes of Jim Tomsula (barf!) and Chip Kelly. Shanahan rightfully earned kudos for the work he's done as OC at Washington and Atlanta, particuarly the latter, but as we saw last week, the talent here isn't even close to what he had last year w/ the Falcons. The Niners lost 23-3 at home to Carolina, but let's note that total yardage was pretty even (287-217). The defense received a huge blow when rookie Reuben Foster was carted off w/ an ankle injury. Him being out for a month is not good, but the Niners are facing a weaker offense this week, one that has maybe the worst line in all of football. 49ers DC Robert Saleh served under Pete Carroll on the Seattle staff previously, so he's familiar w/ their schemes and then there's this issue w/ GM John Lynch having talked strategy extensively w/ Carroll before taking his current job (previously served as an analyst w/ FOX).

Like San Francisco, Seattle failed to score an offensive touchdown last week. They lost 17-9 at Green Bay, a game that swung on a bogus block in the back call after an interception (would have been a pick-six for the Seahawks) and an ejection of DB Jeremy Lane. Then there was a Russell Wilson turnover inside their own five, setting up an easy Packers' TD. There's no shame in losing at Lambeau, but the Seahawks didn't look particularly good in doing it. With the overwhelming expectation that Seattle will bounce back in this spot, we're getting an inflated line. I'm expecting a relatively low scoring game, which makes taking the double digit number a logical choice. 10* San Francisco

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): Like Cleveland, the Bears covered for me in a Week 1 SU loss. Even more so than Cleveland, they had a legit shot at taking the game outright. Already covering (were +6.5) and down 27-21, Chicago had the ball 1st and goal at the 5-yd line. Four plays later, the game was over and not in their favor (still got the cash). As distressing a loss as that must be for Bears' players and fans alike, I'm expecting them to come back w/ an even better effort this week. Yes, Mike Glennon may just be keeping "the seat warm" for rookie Mitchell Trubisky, but the former played reasonably well last week, only to be letdown by his receivers. I'm really encouraged by what I saw in the running game as rookie Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard are a dynamic pair. Take the points here. 

Due to Hurricane Irma, this will be the first game for the Bucs. Having a game under their belt is a nice edge to have if you're Chicago. Tampa Bay comes into 2017 w/ much fanfare as a trendy "darkhorse" pick, but I'm not buying into it. They were favored only THREE times all of last year, so this spread is a noticeable jump for them. They were #1 in the league in net upsets a year ago (+6!), so it's fair to label them as an overachiever. At no point last year were the Bucs favored by more than 3.5 points and the game that was the highwater mark saw them lose outright at home to the Rams. One could point to the situation surrounding Irma as a sort of "rallying cry," but a similar thing did Houston no favors last week.

The Bears were one of two teams that didn't win a single road game last year (Browns), but Tampa Bay is just 2-8 ATS the L10 times it has been a home favorite. Chicago is pegged as one of my more improved teams in the league this year as they deserved far better than LY's 3-13 SU finish based on the notion they actually outgained their opponents ranked 7th (!) in yards per play differential. John Fox has a history of turning around defenses and this should finally be the year with this one. As for the Bucs, they ranked 27th in YPG differential a year ago and 29th in YPP differential. They were outscored despite their 9-7 SU record. This game has all the makings of an outright upset in my eyes. 8* Chicago

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns cashed for me last week, scoring a late TD to sneak within the number against Pittsburgh. One could actually argue that the Browns, one year removed from a 1-15 SU season, actually outplayed the Steelers after having a punt blocked (and returned for a TD) on their opening drive. They were outgained only 290-237 and were it not for the efforts of the best WR in the game (Antonio Brown), one can wonder just how that game would have played out. I thought rookie QB DeShone Kizer played well enough. I do worry here about him facing a defense that just posted a shutout on the road, but after watching the Bengals Thursday, it appears as if lots of defenses are going to shut down Cincinnati this year. In an early season divisional tilt, taking this many points is the way to go. 

Baltimore may have won 20-0 in Week 1, but their offense lacks the explosiveness required to consistently win by such a margin. They were gifted FIVE turnovers by Andy Dalton, one of them setting them up at the Bengals 2-yd line. That obviously resulted in a touchdown for the Ravens, but other than that, they scored only 13 pts the rest of the game. Unlike Pittsburgh, there's no Antonio Brown to throw to with this offense. The contract of Joe Flacco, earned right after the Super Bowl win four years ago, has become somewhat of an "albatross" as it's prevented the front office from adding the necessary pieces to make this a championship contender. Danny Woodhead was supposed to help this year, but he's already landed on the IR. Getting back to my initial point about the lack of explosiveness making it difficult to cover the pointspread, Baltimore is just 5-10 ATS as a favorite the L2 seasons, including 2-6 when laying 3.5 to 9.5 pts. 

Cleveland was the worst team in the league a year ago - both SU and ATS - but they're improved here in 2017 and we can use last year's results to our advantage. Because they covered only three games last year, the numbers - at least early on in the season - will be drastically inflated. The Browns did lose here in Baltimore 28-7 last year (pointspread was similar), but that was later in the year when the team had essentially already given up. In the season's first meeting, the Browns held a 20-2 lead before losing by only five. That 28-7 finish was the only time in the last eight meetings that Baltimore won by more than 10 points. Five of the last seven have been decided by six points or less. Flacco completed only nine passes for 121 yds last week and remember he missed all of training camp. 8* Cleveland

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Many will simply write it off as "they were playing the Jets," but Buffalo really dominated last week w/ a 408-214 edge in total yards. Sure, they only won 21-12, but that final score could have been a lot more lopsided were it not for a Tyrod Taylor INT in the endzone early in the game. I'm on the record as saying the Bills will win more games this year than people think. Yes, several moves were made late in the offseason that seemed to signal an eye on the future, rather than the present. But this was a better team last year than people remember and they can run the ball (#1 in the league LY!) effectively. Favored big for a second week in a row, Carolina is vulnerable in this spot. Take the points. 

The Panthers did win their season opener, 23-3, but it was against San Francisco and QB Cam Newton did not look sharp. Maybe you could attribute that to "rust" as the former MVP hardly played at all (just two pass attempts) in the preseason. But his shoulder certainly didn't seem to be right either as he missed a lot of throws he should have completed w/ relative ease. While I'm high on Carolina having a bounce back year in 2017, I remain steadfast that if they do, they'll win their fair share of close games, something they did a ton of two years ago (went 15-1 and made the Super Bowl) but not last year (finished 6-10). The offense gained only 287 yards last week and only won big because they were facing one of the more anemic teams in the league. 

There's a storyline here as Bills HC Sean McDermott previously served as Panthers' defensive coordinator. So he has some familiarity on what his team will be seeing come Sunday. Also, the Bills new GM (Brandon Beane) comes by way of Carolina. Buffalo has won four of its last five games vs. NFC teams and is 2-0 SU all-time in Carolina. Granted, that may not mean much in the grand scheme of things, but I believe blowing this Buffalo team out is going to be easier said than done this year. The Bills actually outscored opponents last year (overlooked!). LeSean McCoy is a 'go' here and I believe we'll be seeing a very close game that could go either way. 8* Buffalo

8* New Orleans (1:00 ET): The expectation here will be that, off a loss, New England "can't lose." Especially since they've had so much time to prepare for Wk 2 (played Thurs night Wk 1) while New Orleans is working on a short week after being embarrassed at Minnesota on Monday Night Football. But not so fast. Let's not forget the tremendous homefield advantage that the Saints have enjoyed through the years here at Mercedes Benz Superdome. Even coming off three straight 7-9 (SU) seasons, it's rare to find them in this price range. In fact, they are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog of any kind the L3 seasons w/ three outright upsets, Seattle among them. Dare I say - almost never - are they collecting this many points. The only time in the last 10 years Drew Brees has been a dog of more than a field goal at home was two years ago against the unbeaten Panthers and he covered that game, losing by only three in typical Saints fashion (lost 41-38). History says not to be worried about the short week either as the Saints are 2-0 SU/ATS the previous two seasons after playing on MNF. I'll be taking the points here. 

So much for that undefeated season, huh? Any such talk concerning the Patriots (or any other team for that matter) is just ludicrous and the defending SB champs found that out the hard way in Wk 1, losing 42-27 at home to the suddenly explosive Chiefs. It certainly appeared that the Pats had the game in hand, up 17-7 w/ less than three minutes to go in the 1H. But from that point onward, KC dominated, outgaining the Pats 449-149 and outscoring them 21-0 in the 4Q. Defensively, New England clearly has a problem if Dont'a Hightower can't go. Him leaving the game w/ a knee injury is what really opened things up for the KC offense. No one has ever accused Alex Smith of being "explosive" before, so imagine what Brees - in his building - could do to a Hightower-less defense. 

On offense, Tom Brady completed only 16 passes last week. The Saints defense has never been good, and led Vikings QB Sam Bradford complete 27 of 32 passes Monday night, but I still look for the home dog to be able to trade scores in this one. Brees and the offense had four red zone trips last week, but were unable to come away w/ a single TD in any of them, instead settling for 4 FGs. So it's not as if they failed to move the ball. Converting those field goals into touchdowns would have gone a long way last week and was probably the difference between winning and losing. This has always been a very good home team and New England is probably due to continue "giving some back" after it went 16-3 ATS last season. This spread was a couple points lower prior to the Saints losing on MNF. 8* New Orleans

8* Fresno State (9:30 ET): We knew Jeff Tedford was walking into a pretty ugly situation here at Fresno State, but no 1st year HC deserves the non-conference schedule he got. OK, things started off well enough w/ a "layup" against Incarnate Ward, a debut that saw the Bulldogs win 66-0 w/ a 513-148 edge in total yds (allowed -7 yds rushing). But this venture up to Washington will mark the second leg of one of the most brutal back to back's I've seen any team face in recent years. Last week, it was a trip to Alabama, so that's B2B playoff teams on the road for a team that went 1-11 SU in '16. That all being said, I'm taking FSU here, just like last week. The Bulldogs were never really in danger of not covering LW (were +43) as they lost "only" 41-10. Washington is not better than 'Bama, so once again this looks like an overlay and I'll happily grab the huge number.

Washington is again a Top 10 team (currently #6), but they sleepwalked through the opener, what ended up being only a 30-14 win at Rutgers (closed -28). Last week saw them bury Montana 63-7, forcing four turnovers and allowing just 163 total yds. But w/ the conference opener on deck, a rematch of LY's Pac 12 Title Game no less (at Colorado), this sets up as a bit of a lookahead from the favorite's perspective. There's almost no margin for error here from the favorite's perspective. Last week, I said Fresno State deserved to be more like a 5 TD dog to 'Bama as opposed to a 6 TD dog. Similar story here as this line should be between 3 and 4 TD's, not 4 and 5. There's also some familiarity with the coaching staffs as Tedford served as a consultant at UW, thus he knows the playbook. 

It wouldn't be right to call last week's game at Alabama "competitive," but Fresno State never trailed by more than the final margin. The defense even held the Tide to a FG after an INT put them at the FSU 5-yard line. They couldn't stop Alabama from running the ball, but Washington's ground game is nowhere close to as prolific. The two keys here for the dog are (1) limit turnovers and (2) don't punt to Dante Pettis, who has a Pac 12 record seven return TD's in his career, including two already this season. Fresno Staet is far better than they were last year and while it's brutal facing B2B playoff teams on the road, note that non-Power 5 teams facing B2B Top 10 teams are 11-4 ATS in the second leg. 8* Fresno State

8* Run Line San Francisco (9:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Giants at +1.5. Clearly, it has not been a good season for the team by the Bay. But they cashed for me yesterday on the run line in a 3-2 loss. Given that they were facing Robbie Ray, the Giants getting the cash in any manner is somewhat impressive. Arizona has now won 19 of its last 24 games, including eight straight on the road. The Giants still have revenge here from a prior sweep that took place at Chase Field. Despite what the D'backs have done lately, they are a pretty mediocre road team (just 7-7 as ML fave of -125 to -175), largely due to a rather sizable decrease in offensive production (5.6 rpg at home, only 4.3 away). They scored only three runs last night and w/ what certainly appears to be a pitcher's duel on tap for tonight, taking the +1.5 is the way to go. 

Arizona almost certainly will be the host team for the NL Wild Card Game. Given what I just stated about the offense's home vs. road splits, that's a good thing for them. The pitcher that will most likely start that Wild Card Game is Zack Greinke, who gets the nod tonight. Greinke has always seemed to pitch well here at AT&T Park as in six starts, he's 4-0 w/ a 1.66 ERA. Also, he comes in w/ a 2.04 ERA his L4 starts overall. But, somewhat true to his team's form, his numbers on the road aren't nearly as strong this year. In 12 road starts this year, Greinke is only 3-5 (6-6 TSR) w/ a 4.00 ERA and 1.278. He pitched well at Dodgers Stadium on 9.5, but that's also the top park in baseball for run suppression. Greinke had struggled in his two previous road starts, at Minnesota and Chicago, giving up 11 runs in just 10 innings of work.

Madison Bumgarner has had a very unfortunate season, both on and off the field. One could make the arguement that his dirtbike accident back in April was a harbinger of things to come for the team in this awful 2017 season. But despite some recent struggles and a downright shocking 3-12 TSR, Bumgarner has generally continued to pitch well. Yes, he is 0-3 w/ a 6.50 ERA and 1.333 WHIP his L3 starts. But he's allowed 3 ER or less in 7 of 11 starts since coming back from injurty. He also has a 2.47 ERA his L7 starts vs. the D'backs. Despite that strong ERA, Bumgarner has a hard-luck 0-3 TSR against them in 2017, all three losses coming by one run! In 21 IP against them, he's allowed just 7 ER (no more than 3 in any one start) and has 25 K's against just three walks. Incredibly, Bumgarner has an 0-5 TSR in one run games and an 0-8 TSR in the division. He's absolutely due here and I see the Giants doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

8* Western Michigan (7:00 ET): Flash back to LY's Mid-American Conference Championship Game and Western Michigan was "putting a bow" on a remarkable 13-0 SU regular season that was among the best ever produced by a MAC school. They haven't won since and PJ Fleck is gone. They didn't cover that MAC Title Game against Ohio either, so that makes it four straight ATS losses for the Broncos coming into this week. Now the three straight losses are excusable here. Two were against Top 10 teams (Wisconsin and USC) and then last week they were at Michigan State. But still, a three-game losing skid is something this fanbase is not accustomed to seeing. Fortunately, that's where Idaho comes in. The Vandals, playing their final seasons as a FBS program, lost 44-16 to UNLV last week - at home. That's the same UNLV team that had just suffered a historic loss (as 45-pt favorites) to Howad the week before. I'm looking for this to be a good old fashioned beatdown. 

In starting 0-2, Western Michigan now has more losses this year than they did all of last. But who they've faced has a lot to do with that and I did not expect them to beat either USC or Michigan State (both road games). Though they eventually fell 49-31, the Broncos did play Southern Cal quite tough as it was a tie game midway through the fourth quarter. Last week against Michigan State, the offense simply "wasn't there." This will be a bit of a challenge for 1st year HC Tim Lester to get his team motivated to beat an easy opponent, following B2B disappointing losses. But getting his 1st win, in the home opener, should be a priority and the Broncos should respond in kind. While you couldn't possibly expect a repeat from LY, this remains a really talented team in Kalamazoo, which is more than I can say for the contingent from Moscow, ID. 

This is a strange year for Idaho as they're getting set to transition down to the FCS level next year. So motivation may be lacking at times. Last week was certainly a bad sign as they gave up 550 yards to UNLV, who had just lost to a FCS program (as 45-pt favorites!) the week before. It was a 10-3 game at halftime, but things quickly spiraled out of control from there. Believe it or not, that loss snapped a six-game win streak for the Vandals going back to LY. But like WMU, this year's team is not as strong as the 2016 version (went 9-4 SU) as they have just 10 starters back and all signs are pointing down. Despite that 9-4 SU record a year ago, Idaho was actually outscored and outgained. They've made this trip before, but not since 2010 and three years ago they lost to the Broncos 45-33 at home. The Vandals are also just 1-16 SU the L17 seasons in road openers. 8* Western Michigan

10* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): It's only been two weeks, but in terms of teams that are being overlooked right now, Mississippi State has to be on the short list. Maybe it's just the "Alabama effect," but overall, the SEC seems "down" this year. LSU and Auburn were really the only teams cited as potential challengers to the Crimson Tide's throne. But HC Dan Mullen typically has his Bulldogs playing above expectations and 2017 seems no different. MSU has won its first two games by a combined score of 106-21 due to a combination of vicious defense and stellar QB play from Nick Fitzgerald. This game has "upset" written all over it an in fact the Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 pts, winning three of those games straight up. Take the points here. 

In Week 1, MSU destroyed Charleston Southern (FCS) 49-0, holding the Buccaneers to just two first downs and 33 total yards - for the game! As remarkable as that reads, they were just as dominant LW at La Tech, DT Jeffrey Simmons in particular. The sophomore scored two touchdowns (yes, you read that right!), one on a blocked punt, the other a 90-yd fumble return. He also blocked a PAT.  Of course, the offense putting up 459 yds helps as well. Fitzgerald is already making people forget about Dak Prescott and he's compliment by a strong RB duo of Aeris Williams and Kylin Hill. Mississippi State currently finds itself in the "others receiving votes" category, but to my eyes, this is a very much a Top 25 team. They have the better QB in this matchup (easily!) and more than enough talent to compete w/ LSU. 

LSU is also 2-0 w/ a shutout in its first game (27-0 over BYU). That shutout looks a little less impressive though if you've seen BYU play this year (have yet to throw for 200+ yds in any game). Last week was an easy 45-10 win over UT-Chattanooga for the Bayou Bengals. While MSU's Simmons is set to have a break out year, LSU could be w/o its top D-lineman for this game, Rashard Lawrence, as he's still battling an ankle injury. Additionally, while LB/DE Arden Key will start for the 1st time since offseason shoulder surgery, his conditioning is such that he'll have to be subbed out frequently. That could leave the Tigers' defense vulnerable against Fitzgerald. Each of the last three meetings between these two SEC West rivals have been decided by five points or less and LY the Bulldogs shut LSU's offense out in the 2H, allowing just 89 total yds. This year's team is much better - on both sides of the ball. Going back to the end of 2013, Miss State is 9-2 ATS its L11 times getting points. LSU would be very lucky to escape Starkville w/ a win Saturday night. 10* Mississippi State

8* Air Force (12:00 ET): If you were to simply look at the box scores from Michigan's first two games, it could reasonably be concluded that that the 7th ranked Wolveriners dominated both Florida and Cincinnati. However, speaking as someone who watched virtually every snap of both games, I know that not to be the case. It took a 433-192 edge in total yards to overcome not one, but two, Wilton Speight pick-six's. Then, they may have outgained Cincinnati similarly (414-200) in a 36-14 win, but it was somewhat "touch and go" going into the 4th quarter (led only 24-14). Then there's the matter that their own defense has scored three of the touchdowns thus far. Now the Maize and Blue face a relatively quick turnaround against a rested service academy that runs an offense (triple option) they don't see in the Big 10. Throw in the fact that service academies are 11-4 ATS vs. Top 10 teams since '05 and I'm taking the points here. 

Air Force got an early season bye last week. Like Michigan, the Flyboys are a team that didn't return a lot of starters from last season. In fact, they have just one back (same as Michigan) on the defensive side of the ball and only seven total (two more than Michigan). Like most service academies though, the AFA is used to losing the majority of starters to graduation every year. Luckily, they got to open up against VMI two weeks ago. That went about how you'd expect, although the Falcons' efficiency still impressed me in a 62-0 win w/ a 647-95 edge in total yds. The triple option went for 457 of those yards on the ground. The extra week to prepare here is meaningful as is the fact the AFA has covered six straight times as an underdog of more than three touchdowns. They're also 6-2 ATS when getting any points the L3 seasons.

Michigan's defense is again outstanding, but questions linger about QB Speight, who simply turns the ball over too much and isn't that good. With Air Force figuring to run the ball the majority of the time, this figures to be a conservative game w/ not many points scored. It also matters that the Wolverines haven't faced the triple option since 2012 ... when they hosted Air Force. That was prior to the current coaching staff, led by Jim Harbaugh. With the Big 10 opener (at Purdue) on deck, I just can't see Michigan being "out for blood" here or winning by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for here. Air Force was a 10-win team a year ago and has won seven straight overall. So they're no pushover. They're a far more talented team than Cincinnati, that's for sure. 8* Air Force

8* Akron (12:00 ET): When it comes to "terrible spots," I'm not sure any team in America finds itself in a worse one this weekend that Iowa State does. The Cylcones just lost a heartbreaker last Saturday at home to in-state rival Iowa (blew 10 pt lead in 4Q) and now have to turn around and lay points on the road against an unfamiliar opponent. Bettors seem to be overlooking this situation, having pushed this number up throughout the week, possibly because they only know Akron from its 52-0 loss to Penn State in the season opener. But Terry Bowden's Zips are nowhere near as bad as they looked in Happy Valley two weeks ago. They are a much improved team from last year and Saturday's game is a big one for the program as it's a rare visit from a Power 5 schools (only 2nd time in Bowden's six years here). Take the points. 

I made it a point to read a lot of the local press concerning ISU this week and not much of it is flattering. The word "crossroads" was used quite frequently to describe the state of things under Matt Campbell, which is probably unfair given that this is the HC's second year in Ames. But objectivity is something you should never expect from any college football fanbase. Still, the Cyclones ought to be kicking themselves for the way they let the Iowa game slip away last week. They allowed 17 pts in the final 6:25 of regulation before losing 47-44 in overtime, their third straight loss in the Cy-Hawk rivalry. The defense continues to be bad as it surrended nearly 500 total yds to Iowa last week and it's not like anyone has ever accused the Hawkeyes of being "explosive." The ISU defense allowed 31.3 PPG in Campbell's 1st year here (4th straight year giving up 30+ PPG) and continues to be an albatross.

After getting shellacked by Penn State, Akron desperately needed an easy game and last week FCS school Ark Pine Bluff was eager to oblige. The Zips won the home opener 52-3 as QB Thomas Woodson was even allowed to rest in the second half. Woodson threw for 300+ yards in five of the seven full games he played last season, so this looks to be another offense that can potentially take advantage of the sieve that is the ISU stop unit. Akron has 15 starters back this year, so like I said earlier, there is a sense of optimism that they'll be bowling again just like two years ago. There's some familiarity between the two coaching staffs here as Campbell previously served as HC at Toledo, a MAC rival of Akron's. I just think the disappointment of losing again to Iowa will be hard to overcome for the ISU players, who are unaccustomed to laying this many points on the road. The Cyclones have been road favorites only six times in the last decade and covered just once in the role since '09. Last year, they won by only seven (31-24) as 11-pt chalk at Kansas. It will be a struggle just to win this game. 8* Akron

8* Run Line San Francisco (10:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Giants at +1.5. Now taking the two worst teams in baseball in the same package might seem problematic to some, but like the Padres (see above), the Giants have the advantage of having had yday off and a starting pitcher that will give them an excellent shot to win. Plus, this game is in San Francisco where the G-Men are infinitely better than they are on the road. Meanwhile, the opposite could be said for Arizona, who averages about 1.5 runs fewer per game on the road than they do at home. This is a revenge spot for San Fran as they were swept in Arizona late last month. Two of those losses came by one run. Furthermore, before that sweep, the Giants had split the first 10 games vs Arizona here in 2017. Take the +1.5 here. 

Jeff Samardzija certainly gives SF an excellent shot to win here. He has an excellent 0.791 WHIP his L3 starts (2.94 ERA) even after a rough showing his last time out. That came in an American League park, however, so I can forgive that. His L3 starts vs. NL teams have seen him allow just 2 ER in 22 IP including a CG shutout vs. San Diego on 8.28. Samardzija did not pitch in the last series vs. Arizona. He has faced the D'backs a total of three times in 2017 and while he lost the first two, those were back in April (1st two starts of the year). He's since beaten them, here at home, by allowing just 3 ER in 6 1/3 IP. He was basically even money on the ML in that start, so by that measure, there's some decent value here. The Giants obviously haven't been very good this year (a 100-loss season is a real possibility), but w/ Samardzija on the hill tonight, this sets up as a good "ambush" spot. 

Arizona shut Colorado out yday 7-0 to earn a split of that four-game series. Thanks to a 13-game win streak (which started the same day as Cleveland's ongoing 22-game streak), the D'backs' playoff position should now be considered "safe" as they almost certainly will be hosting the NL Wild Card Game. I give them a great shot at "making some noise" come playoff time, but since that 13-game winning streak ended, they're just 3-4 and all those games were at home. As noted above, this team is nowhere near as dominant on the road. In fact, they're barely above .500 away from Chase Field. Robbie Ray (starts tonight) is an excellent #2 starter and has displayed tremendous form of late w/ a 0.737 WHIP and 36 K's his L3 starts. But tonight is not a good spot for him and his team. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

8* Run Line San Diego (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Padres +1.5. This marks a rare endorsement of a club I've rightfully been quite critical of all season. I've gone so far as to say San Diego is the worst team in all of baseball and their -162 run differential backs that assertion up. Not even a visit to an American League park (where they get to use the DH) could wake up an offense that ranks 30th in runs scored, batting average and OBP. They scored just 1 run in a two-game sweep at Minnesota, but perhaps a visit to always hitter-friendly Coors Field might do the trick. The Padres have revenge here after being swept by the Rockies in the first series after the All-Star Break. They've got the advantage tonight though in starting pitching and due to the fact they had Thursday off (Colorado did not). Take the +1.5. 

  Colorado currently holds the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. They are 2.5 games up on their only competition, Milwaukee and St. Louis. Their last series started well w/ them taking the first two games at Arizona, but then they lost the L2 days, including a 7-0 shutout yday. While a 6-2 road trip has to be considered a success, I don't like them here as they send Tyler Chatwood to the bump. Chatwood has not pitched well in Denver this year, posting a 2-6 record in 10 starts w/ a 6.36 ERA and 1.758 WHIP. While he hasn't allowed a single run in two September starts, note that he's lasted only a combined eight innings and got to face the 29th ranked offense (Giants) and pitch in the #1 venue for run suppression (Dodgers Stadium). He's not pitched that well against San Diego in his career (4.41 ERA in 10 starts) or this year, for that matter (4.82 ERA in three starts). By the way, the Rockies have lost 10 of their last 15 home games.

San Diego has the edge in that they were off Thursday while Colorado was finishing the series in Arizona. There's no sugarcoating what happened to the Padres on Tuesday (lost 16-0!), but they came back and played the Twins tough Wednesday, losing 3-1 in 10 innings. Offense is obviously a concern w/ this team, but pitching should not be, at least tonight w/ Clayton Richard on the mound. Richard will be working on seven days' rest here and has a 2.96 ERA his L7 starts. Last time out, he threw six shutout innings, beating St. Louis. In fact, the Padres have won five of the last six times Richard has taken the mound. As for the offense, getting the additional 1.5 runs will help and last time they played here at Coors Field, they scored 17 runs in the three games. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 8* Run Line San Diego (+1.5)

8* Run Line Seattle (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Mariners at +1.5. We are starting to see more teams "drop out" of what has been a very interesting race for the second Wild Card in the American League. It wasn't that long ago that we had seven teams separated by less than three games. But several seem to be dropping out (KC, Baltimore, TB and Texas) and with pole sitter Minnesota playing well right now, they now have a three-game edge over the field. One team that's not going away though is Seattle. The M's have won three in a row (all against Texas) and sit 3.5 gms back of the Twins. Only two teams, the Twins (obviously) and Angels, are ahead of them as they get set to begin this very important series in Houston. 

The Astros have been a below .500 team since the All-Star Break. It once seemed like a formality that they would own homefield advantage in the AL half of the playoff draw, but insanely hot Cleveland has passed them and now it's looking like they'll have to face the AL East winner (Red Sox or Yankees) in the Divsion Series. After being swept in Oakland last weekend, the 'Stros wrapped up a 10-game road trip by taking two of three from the Angels (helped Seattle!). But I'm not ready to call this team "out of the woods" yet as they'd scored all of five runs in four games prior to yday's 5-2 win. Tonight's starter Charlie Morton has not made it past the fifth innings in any of his L3 outings and he lost here at home to the Mariners (gave up 4 runs) back on 7.19. He's winless in three tries vs. Seattle this year, posting a 4.58 ERA. 

This is the second time these division rivals have met in September. Houston swept a three-game series in Seattle, so that puts the revenge angle in play here. Simply put, it's difficult to sweep the same opponent twice in a row (unless you're the Indians!). The Mariners are getting James Paxton back for tonight's series opener, which is huge. Paxton, who has been out a month, has been their most reliable starter this season. Incredibly, he has not allowed more than 3 ER in a start dating back to June 16th (span of 10 starts). He has had Houston's number in the past, particularly this season. In seven career starts against them, his ERA is 2.86. But this year, he's 2-0 w/ a 0.45 ERA! Two of Seattle's five wins over Houston this year have come w/ Paxton starting. He's given up all of 1 ER to them in 20 IP! Houston has a losing record vs. LH starters this year (18-21) and w/ Seattle having played 39 one-run games this year (26-13), I seem them doing no worse than one-run loss here. The offense has tallied 28 runs in the L3 games. 8* Run Line Seattle (+1.5)

10* Illinois (7:00 ET): Turns out that USF may not be as good as previously advertised and their desire to get back on track has been impacted by Hurricane Irma. I played against the Bulls in their season opener as they struggled to just beat a bad San Jose State team. The cover was never really in question there as SJSU jumped out to a 16-0 lead and lost "only" 42-22 as 22-pt dogs. You would have thought, coming off such an uninspired start, that USF would look to dominate its next time out, facing a FCS opponent. But you would have thought wrong. The Bulls trailed Stony Brook at halftime (10-7) before eventually prevailing 31-17 (scored the game's final 2 TD's). But again, the slow start doomed them as they never came close to covering a 33.5-pt number. Then last week's game against UConn (conf opener) was cancelled due to Irma. Now, it's another double digit number they face, only this time facing an opponent from a Power 5 conference. I think I'll take the points here. 

Illinois has started 2-0 SU as well, beating Ball State and Western Kentucky, both at home. This is Lovie Smith's second year in Champaign-Urbana and coming off a 3-9 2016, there's still work to be done. But the fact they can equal LY's win total in September is at least a promising start. Despite being surrounded by some decemt skill position talent and a solid offensive line, QB Chayce Crouch remains a bit of question mark. Back in the Spring, he was not even expected to be the starter here as JUCO transfer Dwyane Lawson was set to come in. But that didn't happen. Smith seems to, however, have developed a strong defense. Last week, the Illini held Western Kentucky to just 244 total yds (only SIX rushing!) and that's no small feat. Consider that last year the Hilltoppers averaged 45.5 PPG en route to a C-USA Title and brought back their starting QB! That was a week after the Illini held Ball State's offense in relative check. 

There was some doubt over whether or not this game would be played due to Irma. Last week's game vs. UConn was on the road, but USF obviously could not get out of Tampa. There figures to be a lot of emotion in Raymond James Stadium Friday night and I suspect that is why this number has been bet up steadily during the week. But emotion can only carry a team so far. USF clearly is not living up to advanced billing and I think it's crazy to see them ranked in the Top 25. Yes, there is talent, but HC Charlie Strong "lost more w/ more" at Texas. Also, it should be pointed out that LY's team which finished 11-2 SU only outgained its AAC foes by 14.6 YPG. USF is just 1-4 SU hosting Power 5 teams dating back to 2013. Illinois' defense will keep them in this one. Take the points. 10* Illinois

10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): As you may have read elsewhere, the idea of the Twins going from an 100+ loss season (were 59-103 in '16) to the playoffs now has to be taken as a real possibility. Thanks in large part to Monday's 16-0 win over the Padres, Minny now has a positive run differential (something they couldn't claim much of the year), thereby justifying their 76-69 record that has them currently in position to nab the American League's 2nd Wild Card berth. They stayed two games up on the Angels by beating the Padres again last night, albeit in much closer fashion (3-1 in 10 innings). Now they'll welcome in the last place Blue Jays and like the last series, the oddsmakers don't seem to be giving the Twins their proper respect.

Going into yday, Toronto was thinking sweep as they had beaten Baltimore each of the previous two days. But both wins were of the one-run variety and Tuesday's required a two-run rally in the ninth. Therefore, I wasn't too surprised to see the Blue Jays fail in their effort to sweep the O's as they lost 2-1 last night. The Jays are out of contention and starting Brett Anderson on the road tonight, so I have little faith in them, especially considering the way the offense has failed to produce lately. Anderson has a 5.90 ERA and 1.613 WHIP in nine starts and must deal w/ a Twins lineup that leads all of MLB in home runs since August 8th. The Jays are also just 29-42 on the road this year and 14-33 L47 as a +125 to +175 road dog.

From the Twins perspective, I really like tonight's pitching matchup as they'll go w/ Jose Berrios, who has been their 2nd best starter (behind Santana) this year. Berrios allowed just two runs in 7 IP his last time out, though the team still lost 5-2 at Kansas City. I expect a much better end result here, needless to say. Berrios did not face Toronto when these teams met late last month, but based on that series, he should expect plenty of support tonight. Minnesota hitters hammered Toronto pitching to the tune of 22 runs in three games and their only loss was a 10-9 affair. Berrios has been lights out at Target Field this year, taking a 2.54 ERA and 0.878 WHIP (nice!) into this game. So it should not be a surprise then to find his TSR at home is 8-1. Make it 9-1 after tonight. 10* Minnesota

10* Boise State (8:00 ET): I had already made up my mind on Boise St for this Thursday night affair before news broke that New Mexico was investigating HC Bob Davie for alleged player mistreatment and a compromised drug testing program. According to reports, former players "felt awkward around [Davie]" and said he had "no personal relationship with players." That certainly doesn't speak well to the state of this program and it's an obvious distraction heading into this game. Believe it or not, the Lobos had a 5-game ATS win streak over BSU from 2011-15. That included the largest MOV by a road team at Albertsons Stadium (7 points!) since '91! The Lobos were 31-pt underdogs in that SU win two years ago and it's still their ONLY win over the Broncos. BSU got revenge LY winning 49-21 as 18-pt chalk in Albuquerque. 

Even before this whole Davie situation arose, this matchup figured to be "tough sledding" for UNM. The Lobos returned only 10 starters from LY's team which won nine games, including a bowl (best season since '07). There's just three starters back on a defense that allowed 32.4 PPG LY, fifth most in the MWC. That can be viewed one of two ways: either "good riddance" or you cringe over how the replacements are likely to perform. Given last week's outright loss (as 7.5-pt chalk) at home to in-state rival New Mexico State where the defense surrendered 500 total yards, it's likely to be more of the latter. Those 500 yards that were allowed was against one of the worst FBS teams, mind you. Now four turnovers certainly didn't help the Lobos cause there, but the bottom line is they trailed 30-5 heading into the 4Q. 

Boise State is also off a tough loss, theirs coming at Washington State, however. That's a ranked foe, on the road, and the game went to triple overtime. The Broncos blew a three TD lead in the fourth quarter before eventually falling 47-44. While some might be of the opinion that will be a tough loss to overcome, I think the favorite will be "out for blood" here. Compared to past seasons, Boise is really flying under the radar here in 2017 and that seems like a good opportunity to get back on the bandwagon. This team has an experienced signal-caller in Brett Rypien (3,646 yds LY), who has to be salivating at facing a defense that allowed 400 yds passsing last week. A weekday game on the blue turf should have the home faithful fired up here and I'm expecting a big win. 10* Boise State

6* Boston (1:35 ET): Oakland has won six of seven, including last night, so now would seem like an opportune time to fade. I've played against them both games in this series so far and while last night obviously didn't go as I'd planned, the bottom line is the A's are a MLB-worst 22-48 on the road this year, getting outscored by 1.6 rpg. A big four-run 1st inning was the difference last night, but that's something that cannot be counted on a daily basis. Even w/ the win yday, the A's are still only 2-7 in 2017 when pushed beyond +175 on the money line on the road and they're 8-22 in that role the L3 seasons. Conversely, the Red Sox are 14-3 this season as ML home faves of -175 to -250 and 41-12 in that range the L3 seasons. Expect a rout on Getaway Day at Fenway. 

Drew Pomeranz is having a career year for Boston due in large part to his success here at Fenway. Going back to June 16th, Pomeranz is 9-1 w/ a 2.16 ERA (16 starts, 12-4 TSR) and all year he's been particularly dominant at home, going 8-2 w/ a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts (11-3 TSR). He's actually the last pitcher to beat Cleveland as on 8.23 Pomeranz outdueled Corey Kluber and took home the cash as a +165 dog on the ML. Last time out, he was a slight favorite against Chris Archer and Tampa Bay and delivered six strong innings. He allowed two runs on two hits while striking out seven. The Rays didn't score off him until the fifth. Considering that as a team, Oakland is batting just .236 on the road this year, I expect a quality start here from Pomeranz.

The A's will be going w/ a rookie in this spot, Daniel Gossett. Despite a strong effort his last time out, Gossett still has a 5.02 ERA and 1.526 WHIP this year (14 starts) to go along w/ a 5-9 TSR. He's backed by a bullpen whose numbers are no better when away from home (5.76 ERA, 1.49 WHIP). In fact, the bullpen is another big edge for Boston here. Gossett did allow just one run on five hits Saturday against Houston (A's won 11-1!), but I'm not anticipating a repeat as the offense is due to slow down now that the team has hit the road. Both of these clubs came into yday having won five of six. The A's may have won yday, but the Red Sox are clearly the better team and many times you get a poor effort from the road team on Getaway Day. 6* Boston

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Please note that this play stands despite Houston changing pitchers, from Lance McCullers Jr to Michael Fiers. However, because of the change, it is likely we will no longer be able to grab the Angels at +1.5 (they are now ML favorites), so the play is now on them to win straight up. Last night, I cashed the Halos on the run line in a 1-0 loss. The Astros scored the game's lone run in the 2nd inning and then Justin Verlander took it from there, allowing just one hit over eight innings. While not a killer, the loss certainly hurt the Angels as they're now two games back of the Twins (who won 16-0 yday!) for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Twins losing tonight to San Diego seems unlikely, so the home team really does need a win in the worst way here. I'll bank on that happening. 

This series marks a return home for the Angels, who were coming off a nine-game road trip, all against division opponents. They went just 4-5 w/ six of the nine contests decided either by one run or in extra innings. Last night marked another one-run loss as the team has now played 45 one-run games this year, second most in the A.L. Tonight, they turn to Tyler Skaggs to right the ship. I gave Skaggs a significant edge over McCullers and it's interesting to note that the oddsmakers preferred McCullers to Fiers. That probably has something to do w/ the fact Fiers has allowed a total of 14 ER his L2 starts, ugly outings that both took place at home. Last time out, the offense bailed Fiers out in an 8-6 win over the sorry Mets, thereby preventing what would have been an embarrassing loss as -255 money line favorites. Though they won yday, the Astros are by no means "out of the woods" yet. This has been a sub-.500 team since the All-Star Break and they were swept by last place Oakland over the weekend.

Skaggs had endured his own rough patch before tossing a quality start his last time out. The Angels may have still lost (3-1 at Oakland), but it was nice to see the pitcher go six innings and allow just three runs w/ 9 K's (tied season-high). Skaggs did start in an Angels win over the Astros here at home back in August. Among division foes, Skaggs' ERA against Houston in the lowest. Meanwhile, Fiers' career ERA vs. LA is just 4.44 in seven starts. Houston has a losing record against left-handed starters this year and has manged only four runs in the last three games (.211 batting average L7 games). 10* LA Angels

6* Boston (7:10 ET): In yday's analysis, I discussed the idea of fading bad teams at their "apex," or more succinctly stated "choosing the right time to play against these known losers." Well, in the case of the A's, we did just that. Tuesday saw them fall 11-1 here in Boston as a powerful trend continued. Oakland was off a four-game sweep of Houston over the weekend, but as noted here yday, every time the A's have swept a series this year, they've gone out and lost the opener of the next series. Also discussed was the stark home vs. road splits for the AL West cellar dwellers. While competitive at the O.co Coliseum (42-33), they are borderline horrendous on the road as not only do they have a 21-48 record (MLB worst), but they're getting outscored by 1.6 rpg (also MLB worst). Add in the fact they are 1-7 this season when pushed above +175 on the ML (on the road) and I see no reason why they aren't likely to be buried again here at Fenway Park. 

The Red Sox now have a four-game lead over the Yankees (who lost yday) in the AL East. Whether or not they lock up the division, this is going to be a playoff team regardless as it is clearly one of the four top teams in the American League. Not that they necessarily needed it, but Boston has what looks to be a sizable advantage in starting pitching for Wednesday. Doug Fister has a 1.71 ERA and 0.905 WHIP his L3 starts, all of them quality, as he's given up just four runs on 13 hits in 21 IP. Since David Price went down, Fister has picked up the slack w/ a 2.79 ERA and 0.993 WHIP, so the run of excellence is actually more sustained than just the last three starts. While he's gotten off to some shaky starts of late (all 4 runs allowed in the L3 starts have come in the 1st inning), Fister has held opposing hitters to an .072 batting average (6 for 83!) from the second inning on. He also has a 2.88 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Oakland. 

While recent form has clearly been better than the overall season numbers for Fister, there's nothing in terms of recent or overall form to suggest Oakland starter Jharel Cotton will outduel him here. Cotton has allowed 3 HR's in B2B starts, a terrible sign when getting set to face this Boston lineup. Despite allowing 7 runs in 5 innings, he was bailed out by the offense last time out, but I wouldn't look for that to happen again. In six of his last eight starts, Cotton has given up at least four runs while not making it past the sixth inning. For the season, he now has a 5.90 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 22 starts. Getting back to the price range, the Red Sox are 14-2 this year when priced between -175 and -250 at home and 41-11 in that same range the last three seasons. 6* Boston

8* Run Line LA Angels (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. Critical series for the Halos here as they trail the Twins by one game in the chase for the AL's second Wild Card and are seemingly drawing the Astros at a most opportune time. Houston's 2017 trajectory may not be quite as pronounced as that of the Dodgers, but it's similar in the sense that after dominating their league most of the year, they're clearly in a tailspin right now. In fact, the Astros have already ceded homefield advantage to the insanely hot Indians thanks to a sub-.500 second half of the season. This is their third straight series on the road, all out on the West Coast, while the Angels are returning home after their own nine-game trip through the division. I say the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Angels went 4-5 on the recently completed trip and virtually every game was competitive. Six of the nine contests were decided either by one run or in extra innings. The team has now played 44 one-run games this season, 2nd most in the American League, and has won 25 of them. This has been a better team at home (no surprise) and they ar 17-5 this year in Tuesday games. Tonight marks a special occasion for starter Garrett Richards as it will be his 1st time starting in Anahem since April of last season due to a torn elbow ligament. His comeback began last week against Oakland, the same team he faced in his only other start of 2017 (back in April). For what it's worth, the Angels have won both Richards' starts thanks in large part to him allowing only one run in 8 IP.

Houston has been MLB's best road team much of the year, but they got hammered over the weekend in Oakland, losing the final three games by a combined score of 32-7. As mentioned earlier, this has been a sub-.500 team since the All-Star Break. Questions with starting rotation led them to acquire Justin Verlander from Detroit and he was lights out in his first start for them, allowing just one run in a win over Seattle last week. But, overall, Verlander has NOT pitched well on the road this season as is evident by his 5-11 team start record there. As a member of the Tigers, he lost his only start to the Angels this season by giving up four runs and five walks back in May. When these teams met here in Anaheim at the end of August, the Astros did take two of three, but two of the games were decided by one run as have five of the 13 meetings this year. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals have won seven of eight (swept Pittsburgh over the weekend, which has them only two games back of the Cubs in the NL Central and 3.5 back of the Rockies for the second Wild Card. They now own their division's best run differential (+74), but all of this will be for naught if they can't take care of business this week at home against the hapless Reds. Somewhat shockingly, the Redbirds are only 5-8 against this particular division rival here in 2017 and that's clearly cost them. But w/ nothing but division games the rest of the way, including two series w/ Cincinnati, the Cards clearly control their own destiny and I see them starting this three-game set with a dominant win behind Lance Lynn, who is well overdue for a victory. 

Lynn has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts, but that's grossly unfair. Four of the five starts have been quality ones w/ him allowing 2 ER or fewer and he has a 1.29 ERA/1.095 WHIP in the last three. In fact, Lynn has actually been one of the National League's best pitchers in 2017. In addition to ranking in the top 10 in both ERA and WHIP, he's allowed the third fewest walks and opponents are batting only .213 off him, one of the 10 lowest averages in all of MLB! Lynn is 10-4 w/ a 3.06 ERA in 20 career appearances vs. the Reds, 17 of them starts. St. Louis pitching has been awesome of late, holding opponents to just 1.7 rpg over the last week and a .217 BA. The Reds may have scored 10 runs in Sunday's win over the Mets, but that was only after totaling four in the previous three games. 

Reds starter Robert Stephenson has the opposite TSR of Lynn (5-0!) his L5 starts, but despite the disparate records, Lynn is clearly the superior pitcher in this matchup. Stephenson has posted a 1.585 WHIP his L3 outings, a sign that he's been lucky and had control issues. He was able to overcome five walks his last time out, but tonight marks the 1st time in nearly a month he's had to start on the road where the Reds are just 26-45 for the year, including 2-10 as a ML dog of +175 or higher (13-38 L3 seasons). So, the superior team has the edge in starting pitching tonight and is playing at home where they've gone 49-22 as a ML favorite of -175 or higher the L3 seasons. 8* St. Louis

8* Boston (7:10 ET): Oakland comes into Beantown fresh off a sweep another first place team (Houston), but that took place at home. As discussed here many times over, the A's can be a competitive bunch in their home park (42-33 record!), but it's a far different story on the road where they are baseball's worst at 21-47 (outscored by 1.5 rpg). Case in point, back in May we saw them take three of four from the Red Sox at O.co Coliseum. Expect things to go much differently this week at Fenway Park where the home team had won four in a row before losing Sunday. Boston has the Yankees hot on their heels in the AL East, so this is a series they'd certainly like to sweep. Tonight things look good as not only are they 14-2 as a home fave of -175 to -250 this season; they are 41-11 in that range the L3 seasons! 

Oakland dominated Houston, winning the last three games by a combined score of 32-7. Sometimes, the key to playing against these also-ran teams is to properly identify when they are at their peak and then fade accordingly. I think we're at that point with the A's right now. Their current five-game win streak matches a season-high, previously set back in April when they took five in a row from the Mariners and Rangers, all at home. Following that win streak, they would hit the road and were promptly swept by the Angels. At no point this season have the A's followed a series sweep w/ another victory! They hope Sean Manaea can reverse that trend tonight, but I don't see it happening as Manaea was destroyed in his only previous start at Fenway (allowed 8 runs in 2 2/3 IP!). Only half of his 26 starts this season have been quality and in his L7 starts overall he has a 6.23 ERA and 1.912 WHIP. True to his team's form, Manaea's TSR on the road is just 5-8.

It's been awhile since Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has been able to record a winning decision. His last one came all the way back in May, but that's very misleading as he's off a strong start (allowed only 2 ER in 6 IP) against Toronto, a game the Red Sox won 3-2. Rodriguez was a -190 favorite on the ML there, so by comparison this price certainly looks like a bargain. It's a weaker opponent, one that has been one of the AL's bottom two teams basically all season long. For whatever reason, Tuesday has been a good day for Boston this year as they are 18-2 in games played on the second day of the week. Oakland is just 15-32 the L3 seasons when playing w/ a day off including 5-11 this season. 8* Boston

10* LA Chargers (10:20 ET): I know I've said this before (last year!), but look for the Chargers to be the most improved team in the league this season. The lack of luck when it comes to injuries and record in close games eventually has to turn the other way and with a better roster, new coach and new home, 2017 should (finally) be the year. Last year's team had to deal with the incompetent Mike McCoy at the helm, rumors swirling about the state of the franchise (killing any chance of home field advantage) and a shocking amount of late game ineptitude (six blown 4Q leads!). On top of all that, it seemed as if a new player was lost to injury every week. Consider that despite going 5-11 straight up, the Chargers were only outscored by 13 points over the course of the entire season! They are the better team Monday night and I will take the points. 

While the Chargers are a lock for improvement (in my eyes), the Broncos are a team set for decline. They too have a new HC (Vance Johnson), but it's not an ideal situation to be stepping into. The QB situation is one of the worst in the league as Trevor Siemian is again the starter because Paxton Lynch couldn't beat him out in the preseason (bad sign). The defense that carried this team to the Super Bowl two years ago and was again tops in the league last year, is now older and missing key personnel. Plus, the defection of ace coordinator Wade Phillips (to the Rams) will be felt throughout the year, especially as the defense begins to decline. The release of safety TJ Ward right before the start of the regular season was a bit puzzling, especially after all the injuries that have been suffered on this side of the ball during training camp, most notably pass-rusher Shane Ray. Back to the offense, the subpar Siemian is surrounded by a lot of subpar talent, whether you want to talk about the receivers, running game or offensive line.

I like the Chargers' offense quite a bit coming into the year, provided it can stay healthy. Philip Rivers remains the best QB in the AFC West and has a host of targets to throw the ball to this year. His top WR Keenan Allen was lost for the year in Week 1 LY in the midst of a monster game. The defense brings back all but one starter from 2016 and a full year of Joey Bosa is definitely a good thing. He and Melvin Ingram are going to be one of the top pass rushing duos is the league. Both starting corners - Jason Verrett and Casey Heyward - are solid. There are talented players at every level of the Los Angeles (weird to write that!) defense. Anthony Lynn is a 1st time HC, but has to excellent coordinators to lean on in Ken Wisenhunt and Gus Bradley, both of whom are former HC's themselves. Again, I go back to how the team's luck is bound to change this year. Despite winning only nine games the past two seasons, the Chargers have actually outgained opponents both years! They are also 21-11-1 ATS L33 as a road underdog. 10* LA Chargers

8* Run Line Colorado (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Rockies at +1.5. This series marks a potential preview of the NL Wild Card Game. Arizona has greatly improved its playoff positioning in the last two weeks by winning 14 of their last 16 (both losses to San Diego!) and will likely host said Wild Card matchup. Colorado's current position is a little more precarious (three game lead over StL/Milwaukee), although they did just help themselves immensely by sweeping a four-game series from the Dodgers over the weekend. Sweeping the Dodgers is something that the D'backs have done themselves (twice!) during their 14-2 run, but the primary reason they find themselves five games up on the Rockies right now is they swept them (in Coors Field) to start September. This is the Rockies shot at revenge and I believe - despite facing Zack Greinke - they'll do no worse than a one-run defeat here. 

Arizona was bound to cool off, but losing twice to San Diego (here at home!) over the weekend surprised me. They avoided what would have been an embarrassing sweep w/ a one-run win yday, which was their sixth win by one run or in extra innings since the winning streak began. Certainly, they are a tough team to beat when Greinke pitches here at Chase Field (14-2 team start record). But one of those two losses did come against Colorado, back in April, with Greinke allowing three home runs. Overall, it's a 2-2 TSR for Greinke vs. the Rockies in '17. While Colorado's offense predictably tails off outside of Coors Field, they did just average 7.0 rpg at Dodger Stadium over the weekend and that's a place that was #1 in run suppression for visitors this season. Chase Field is a "hitter's park" and giving a lineup like the Rockies an additional 1.5 runs seems like a smart play.

The Rockies have now won six straight on the road. They've won six of seven overall and really need to perform well in this series in order to preserve their precarious spot as the NL's 2nd Wild Card. Both St. Louis and Milwaukee are at home to start the week w/ favorable matchups. Kyle Freeland gets the start Monday and while he's 0-3 in six starts since August 1st, he really hasn't pitched as poorly as the numbers seem to indicate. He hasn't allowed a HR in three consecutive outings and he still has an 8-3 TSR on the road this year. I'm a firm believer in the revenge angle here and w/ five straight losses to the D'backs, it's about time the Rockies broke through with a win. 8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5)

8* Minnesota (7:10 ET): The Vikings have lost four straight times to the Saints, but three of those came at the Mercedes Benz Superdome (one a NFC Champ Game) while the other took place in 2011, a season in which the Vikes finished 3-13 SU. I expect things to go differently in this year's season opener, however, as not only is the game being played at U.S. Bank Stadium, but they'll be able to take advantage of a pourous New Orleans defense which consistently ranks at or near the bottom of the league, year after year. Not only does Minnesota have the better defense in this matchup, they have the better running back as well. Yes, the return of Adrian Peterson (now a Saint) will draw all the headlines here. But Minnesota chose wisely in dumping the aging back and selecting Dalvin Cook (out of Florida State) in the 1st round. Lay the number w/ the short home fave here. 

The Vikings defense won't be the best on the field tonight simply by default. Rather, this group allowed just 314.9 YPG a year ago (3rd fewest) and returns virtually every key starter from that group (including five pro bowlers). As for the Saints' defense, well, consider that last year's ranking of 27th (in yards allowed) was considered "improvement." The Saints "all offense, no defense" approach has brought nothing but mediocre results the last several seasons (three straight 7-9 SU finishes) and the ceiling here feels as low as it's ever been in the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era. It's damn shame that New Orleans has ended up w/ a losing record four of the last five seasons, despite finishing top five on offense every one of those seasons. Consider that no other team w/ a top five offense during that time missed that playoffs in that individual season.

I think people forget the Vikings opened 5-0 SU last season before limping to a 3-8 finish. QB Sam Bradford set a single-season record for completion percentage, and while it was clearly a byproduct of his propensity for checkdowns, he should have a big night against this Saints defense. Vikings HC Mike Zimmer started his career by covering 28 of his first 37 games (4-7 ATS L11). New Orleans actually went 10-6 at the pay window last year, but a lot of that had to do w/ a shocking lack of respect by the oddsmakers for them at home. Only three times last year were they favored by more than a field goal, once on the road. Yes, they're the dog here, but it's a short number and this has always been a "different team" outside of the Superdome. Rumors surrounding Brees' future w/ the team are now swirling. I'm by no means "all in" on the Vikings for 2017, but I'm higher on them than the Saints and that leads to tonight's call. 8* Minnesota

8* San Francisco (4:25 ET): This figures to be an unpopular play, but coming off a season in which it went 2-14 SU and 4-11-1 ATS, there's only one way to go for the Niners. Granted, I happen to have Carolina as one of the most improved teams in the league this year. But that should come about as a result of better fortune in close games, something that killed them in 2016 as they went 2-6 SU in games decided by seven points or less. Remember that two years ago, Cam Newton was MVP, the Panthers went 15-1 SU and made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year's decline was as easy to predict as this year's improvement, but all that being said I don't see this being the rout that the public seems to think it will end up being. The 49ers' improvement will be more incremental and while it's often dangerous to predict a "close loss," that is precisely what I'll do here. 

Sunday marks the home debut of new Niners' HC Kyle Shanahan. Needless to say, the offense he inherits will be nowhere near what he had to work with LY in Atlanta. But after leading productive offenses in two previous stops as OC (Atlanta & Washington), I expect Shanahan will have something "up his sleeve" for his HC debut. Keep in mind that the likes of RG3, Matt Schaub and Rex Grossman have all had career years under Shanahan. So there's hope for the 49ers' Brian Hoyer, who has shown to be an average NFL QB at previous stops w/ worse coaching. There's a lot of youth on the defensive side of the ball, but that unit will be better than last year. This team, despite a lack of success, has gone a respectable 7-7 ATS as a home dog. This is a lot of points to getting in Week 1. 

Cam Newton threw only two passes in the preseason, so the potential for a slow start by the Panthers is there. The defense has a new coordinator as Sean McDermott bolted to become the head coach at Buffalo. Under Ron Rivera, the Panthers are just 7-10 ATS as road favorites. They are the classic "public side" here in Week 1 and figure to be the most popular bet on Sunday. That creates the opportunity to fade as this number was among the biggest movers from the time it opened over the summer. The Niners also had poor luck in close games last year, going 1-5 SU. A closer than expected game is what I expect here as SF should stay within this number. Carolina was just 2-6 SU on the road last year, giving up 28.4 PPG, and remember that Shanahan knows this defense from his time in Atlanta. 8* San Francisco

6* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): It's difficult to refer to September as the "fall" of the Dodgers, simply because they haven't really lost anything tangible. Sure, they've gone from #1 to #2 in run differential (Cleveland), but they're still in first place in the NL West (by 10 games) and still hold the keys to home field advantage throughout the playoffs. In many ways, this stunning stretch of losing (1-14 L15, nine straight) only puts in perspective how "other-worldly" the team had performed much of the season. Consider that their previous 14 losses took place over a 72-game span! They remain 52-22 at home, so the idea of them suffering a four-game sweep here at Chavez Ravine would mark a new nadir. That's what Dodger Blue is up against Sunday and I think they avoid the fate. 

Colorado has greatly improved its own playoff chances by coming in and taking the first three games of this series. They won the opener 9-1 against Clayton Kershaw as +255 ML underdogs. Since then, it's been a pair of one-run victories, each coming at higher than +200 on the ML. This is now the longest road win streak for the Rockies (5 games) since early June. They came into the series sporting a losing record away from Coors Field and as per usual, that can be pinned on offensive decline as they average just 4.3 rpg. That ranks them 25th in all of MLB in runs scored per game on the road. The only teams below them are those well out of playoff contention. So that's something to consider moving forward. As for the pitching side of the ledger, Sunday starter Tyler Chatwood comes in sporting an ugly 11.43 ERA and 2.194 WHIP his L3 starts. Admittedly, there's been roughly a month in between each of them (as he's worked out of the bullpen most of the 2nd half), but still ... expect him to be on a tight pitch count, thereby "exposing" the Rockies' somewhat shaky bullpen. 

This is the longest home losing streak for the Dodgers (8 games) in 30 years. It's their longest overall losing skid since 1992. They've lost five consecutive series for the first time since '07. While they were certainly due for a "market correction," this has gone above and beyond that. Rich Hill starts today and despite an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, he sports an outstanding 0.696 WHIP during that time. His last start saw the Dodgers lose 13-0, but Hill allowed only two runs in 6 IP. His previous home start before that was one of the more hard-luck decisions in recent memory as he took a no-hit bit into the ninth, yet came away w/ a 1-0 loss (in 10 innings) to Pittsburgh. Hill and the Dodgers will redeem themselves Sunday. 6* LA Dodgers

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): For whatever reason, some bettors seem a lot more confident now in Houston than they did over the summer. This despite the same two QB's who were always expected to start here, will in fact be out on the field Sunday. That would be Tom Savage and Blake Bortles, which isn't exactly Brady vs. Manning. The Texans have won the AFC South each of the last two seasons w/ less than stellar QB play, but Savage represents the "bottom of the barrel" and it's probably not long before he gives way to rookie DeShaun Watson out of Clemson. As for Bortles, he too is very much on a short leash here after a rocky preseason. But he's really no different now than he was last year. The key here is I expect the Jacksonville team to be much improved this year while Houston should regress significantly. Take the points. 

The Jaguars went 3-13 SU last year and earned themselves another top four draft choice (chose RB Leonard Fournette out of LSU). Fournette should make Bortles' job easier as the third-year QB has never had any coherent running game to speak of in his pro career. This Jags offense was wildly overrated coming into last year (because of racking of lots of yardage in "garbage time" the year prior) and so was the team (favored only three times). But quietly, former HC Gus Bradley left behind a pretty great defense. The Jags were sixth in yards allowed last year (322 per game) and could be even better this season. Despite the 3-13 SU record, this team actually outgained its opponents LY (+13 YPG), but unfortunately blew five 4Q leads and suffered eight losses by a TD or less, six of those coming in the 1-10 finish. You have to figure they'll have better luck this year. Despite this franchise's checkered history, they've gone 24-13 ATS L37 as a road dog and I like them in that scenario here. 

We talked a bit about Jacksonville's defense, so what about Houston's? Well, everyone expects the Texans to have one of the stop units in the league this year after they led the league in fewest yards allowed last year, plus they get a healthy JJ Watt back. But I say not so fast. I'm calling for a drop in the defensive ranking here and the offense should drag the overall team down. Consider for a moment that the Texans scored a league-low 23 TDs last year and now must endure a downgrade at QB. Last year's top draft choice, WR Will Fuller, will miss significant time. Therefore, DeAndre Hopkins will again be the victim of double-teams and figures to have another disappointing season. The Texans were perhaps the league's "luckiest" team a year ago as they finished 9-7 despite being outscored by 49 points. All but one of their wins came by a TD or less. They won't be that lucky again in 2017, mark my words. This is a prime candidate to regress severely. Houston has swept Jacksonville each of the last three seasons (6-0 SU), but the two wins last year came by a total of four points. I expect the Jags to serve up some revenge in Wk 1. 8* Jacksonville

8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): The spread may have flipped on this game (Eagles could kick off as the favorite), but my read on the matchup is unchanged. Philly was a much better team last year than they're 7-9 SU record showed. Case in point, they outscored the opposition by 36 points, which was more than the margin (+26) put forth by the 11-5 Giants. They were foiled by a 1-6 SU mark in close games (those decided by 7 pts or less), two of those coming at the hands of the division rival Redskins, against whom they'll open this season. In breaking down this Week 1 matchup, I was somewhat stunned to find that Washington has not only won, but also covered each of the last SIX meetings! That doesn't make a lot of sense to me as over the L3 seasons, the Skins have most certainly NOT been substantially better than the Eagles. Note that five of the wins have come by a TD or less. It won't be a blowout, but expect the road team to come in and win here in Wk 1. 

Now in his second year as a pro, Eagles QB Carson Wentz has some new weapons to work with. Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith are his new receivers and while both are not "spring chickens," that duo certainly represents an upgrade over who Wentz threw the ball to last season. Like almost every other team in the league, the Eagles will use a "running back by committee" approach, which is fine because they have one of the better O-line's in the league, especially when Lane Johnson is in there. Johnson missed 10 games LY (suspended) and the team suffered for it. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles' defense should be one of the best in the league under coordinator Jim Schwartz. They added Ronald Darby, Derek Barnett and Timmy Jernigan to an already impressive cast of characters.

Washington is still stuck w/ Kirk Cousins at QB for at least another year. Actually, "stuck" may be a poor word choice as Cousins is better than you think as was the 'Skins offense a season ago. But unlike Wentz, Cousins' receiving corps will undoubtedly be weaker in '17 as Terelle Pryor (came over from Cleveland) is the new #1 and Josh Doctson (missed rookie year due to injury) is the other starter. They must replace DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Cousins also lost his OC, Sean McVay, who took the head coaching job in LA. On defense, there's five new starters here, three of them in front seven. Unlike Philadelphia, I'm not sure I'd call the majority of them "upgrades." The front office in D.C. also remains in complete disarray as fmr GM Scott McCloughan is gone. That turmoil can trickle down onto the field and we've seen that before w/ this franchise. This is the Eagles' year to beat the Redskins. 8* Philadelphia

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns were the worst team in the league last year (1-15 SU) and by a wide margin. In fact, they were only able to even cover a measley three games (3-12-1 ATS), giving them the dubious distinction of also being the league's worst pointspread team as well. They were outscored by an average of 11.75 points per game. This year's team will be better, if only incrementally, simply for the reason they can't be any worse. As you can tell, the market is still being quite pessimisstic about them due to getting burned so many times last season. The opponent is a familiar one (Pittsburgh) that they have had little to no success against since rejoining the league in 1999. Only four times since 2001 have the Browns beaten the Steelers and just one of those has come in the past nine meetings. But, opening the season at home, the points are plentiful here and I have to take them thinking Cleveland WILL be more competitive in '17. 

Pittsburgh is again projected to be the 2nd best team in the AFC, behind New England. If their talented core of skill players (Roethlisberger, Bell, Brown) can all remain healthy, then there's no reason to think the Steelers won't earn the conference's second bye. They are the clear favorites in the AFC North, if for no other reason than there's no obvious contender to their throne. But there are some holes we can poke here in the Steel City. The team's defense hasn't ranked higher than 12th in yards allowed since 2012 (when they were #1). Le'Veon Bell held out the entire preseason and thus may not be in "game shape" here. Also, this team has a strange prediliction of playing poorly on the road at least one time per year. Last year, it was a 34-3 stinker at Philadelphia and 30-15 loss at Miami.

To stay competitive here, Cleveland will need to score points (obviously!). The offense will be led by a rookie QB (DeShone Kizer) making his 1st career start, but the key to the Browns' improvement this year will be him operating behind what is legitimately one of the league's best offensive line. Cleveland did cover the spread the spread in Pittsburgh last year, even if it was Week 17 against backups. But a big key here is the Steelers are just 3-8 ATS as road favorites of more than a touchdown under Tomlin. At worst, the backdoor should be open late here and I feel this is way too large of a spread for Week 1, even against the lowly Browns. 8* Cleveland

10* Chicago (1:00 ET): The Falcons are coming off a season where they went to the Super Bowl (and probably should have won it!) while the Bears went 3-13 SU and were among the very worst teams in the league. As a result, we have a large road favorite for Week 1, and in my opinion one that's too large. I'm a believer that that Atlanta may very well be afflicted by a "Super Bowl hangover" (did go 0-4 SU in preseason) and there are some very real, tangible factors pointing towards a decline for 2017. They lost their offensive coordinator (Kyle Shanahan) and will be moving to a new stadium, which can contribute to a lessening of home field advantage for the first couple seasons (adjustment for home team too!). As for this game, it's outdoors and I feel there's no way Matt Ryan and the offense will be as prolific this year as they were last. Take the points. 

Chicago, believe it or not, is a team that I feel will be much improved in 2017. Yes, it's a little bit discouraging that the coaching staff has elected to go w/ Mike Glennon as the Wk 1 starter as opposed to rookie Mitchell Trubisky, who clearly has the higher upside. But regardless of which is under center, the Bears should get improved play compared to what they had last year w/ the likes of Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, David Fales and Jay Cutler. Last year's team was also the most injured in the league. They figure to get better luck in that department this season. They also got killed by a -20 turnover margin in 2016. Turnover margin tends to fluctuate wildly from year to year, so the Bears can expect better luck there as well. 

John Fox typically builds a great defense wherever he goes, but that has yet to happen here in the Windy City. Perhaps 2017 is the year that changes as they've got a great looking front seven and a pair of solid safeties. The offense will be aided by a strong running game (Jordan Howard) operating behind a good offensive line. The Bears actually ranked middle of the road on both offense and defense (15th in both) last year, so they played better than the record. They were 1-6 SU in games decided by six pts or less. As for Atlanta, I'm interested to see how the offense performs now that Kyle Shanahan has moved on. There's also the isssue that this franchise rarely puts together B2B good seasons and the loss in last year's Super Bowl has to be sticking with them. This game being on grass (one of the worst fields in the league no less) does them no favors as they're used to the fast track that the old Georgia Dome and new Mercedes Benz Stadium will provide. The Bears are 4-1 ATS the L2 seasons as a home dog of +3.5 to +7 and this spread just seems a little "rich" to me considering it is the reg season opener. 10* Chicago

8* Stanford (8:30 ET): This will be another early season installment of "the better team is getting points." Certainly, the USC faithful will say that I'm overreacting to their closer-than-expected 49-31 win over Western Michigan (closed -28) in the opener. Sure, the Trojans were able to pull away late and had a 521-357 edge in total yards. But first downs were relatively even (25-24 in USC's favor) and they led by only four w/ just under five minutes to go. A late INT return for a TD made the final score more lopsided than it "should" have been. Especially troubling was the Trojans defense giving up 263 yards on 5.5 per carry. QB Sam Darnold also failed to justify the hype surrounding him being the NFL's #1 overall draft choice next Spring.  Now USC will be facing a better defense and ground game. Take the points.

Stanford enters this game both rested (off last week) and confident (7-2 L9 matchups vs. USC). Both losses to the Trojans in those last nine meetings came by only a field goal, so I see no reason to expect USC to do something they haven't done in a decade and that's beat the Cardinal by more than a touchdown. Last year's game saw Stanford win 27-10 as eight-point chalk. I see no reason to justify the sharp turn in the marketplace for this year's meeting. The Cardinal are 3-0 SU vs. the Trojans the L2 seasons (beat them in '15 Pac Title Game). Everyone keeps talking about how much better USC is this year, but Stanford finished last year just as hot and is also improved in 2017 (despite losing key players to the NFL on both sides of the ball). With 16 starters back, they whipped Rice in the season opener, 62-7 w/ 656 yds of total offense.

The extra week to prepare, a result of Stanford playing Rice in Australia, is huge for the underdog here. Speaking of "underdog," HC David Shaw is 7-2-1 ATS taking points in his six years in Palo Alto. Again, I'm not "overreacting" to USC last week. Rather, I wasn't as high on them as many others coming into the year! I just think this is a bad line for a game that I expected to be decided by less than one score, either way. USC returned fewer starters from last year than Stanford and in breaking down this matchup, I'm just not seeing the gap in talent that the oddsmakers and/or public seem to. Again, I feel it is the better team getting points and an outright upset here would not surprise me in the least. 8* Stanford

8* Missouri (7:00 ET): I've got to come right out and say that South Carolina surprised me last week by going into Charlotte (technically a neutral site) and upsetting favored North Carolina State, 35-28, never trailing. But while I won't call the win "phony," there were definitely some breaks that went the Gamecocks' way. For starters, they returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown, which had to throw NC State off. Furthermore, there were two Wolfpack turnovers that were almost immediately converted into touchdowns. South Carolina was actually outgained 504-246 (more than 2:1!) and had 17 fewer first downs (29-12). While last year's team was able to overachieve (Will Muschamp's 1st season), I don't see the string of good fortune continuing this week in Columbia, MO.

All the luck Missouri had a year ago was of the bad variety. Remember how the Tigers started their SEC tenure w/ B2B Champ Game appearances and a 23-5 SU record? Well, the last two years have seen them go a combined 9-15 SU w/ no bowl appearances. There was a coaching change in there w/ Barry Odom taking over before last season. Odom's team could not catch a break, especially on the defensive side of the ball where four different starters were lost for the year. This year's team is way more experienced w/ 15 starters back, 10 of them on the offensive side of the ball including QB Drew Lock. The offensive line goes from zero returning starters LY to all five TY. You could see the difference on that side of the ball last week as the Tigers rolled up 72 points and 815 total yards against Missouri State, staggering numbers even if they came against a FCS opponent. 

Since joining the SEC, Mizzou is just 2-3 SU/ATS vs. South Carolina. Back in 2013, they lost a memorable home game, 23-20 (double overtime) to the Gamecocks, which was their ONLY defeat of the regular season. They won both the '14 and '15 meetings. Then last year, in Columbia, SC, they lost 31-21 as six-point underdogs. They had a slight edge in total yards, but were undone by an ugly -3 TO margin. One turnover was a late INT in the end zone, after they'd already missed two field goals. Yes, Missouri's defense was shaky last week. But I see better things on the horizon for them this year and I cannot see South Carolina winning B2B games away from home, as a dog. Lay the very short number at home. 8* Missouri

8* Fresno State (3:30 ET): In a historical matchup for Opening Weekend (first time two top three teams faced in 1st week), # 1 Alabama beat #13 Florida State 24-7 as 7.5-pt chalk. Perhaps we shouldn't at all be surprised about that result considering how Bama has traditionally played in season openers under Nick Saban and how Saban has treated his former assistants (now 11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS). But as "automatic" as Saban and the Tide may be in those situations, they are an equally automatic fade the following week. Saban's teams have opened at a neutral site eight straight years, going 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS. The following week, they are on an 0-6 ATS run w/ one game called due to inclement weather. Given the inevitable let down that will take place w/ the players, this is just way too high of a number, especially since the coaching staff will probably be more preoccupied w/ next week's opponent, Colorado State. Plus, Alabama just lost two key defensive players. 

Fresno State has a new HC in Jeff Tedford. Remember him? Tedford was Aaron Rodgers HC at Cal, which is basically his claim to fame. In all fairness, he did have the Bears as a national power for a brief time. His debut here at FSU couldn't have gone better as the Bulldogs routed Incarnate Word (FCS) 66-0 w/ over 600 total yards of offense. There's nowhere to go but up here as FSU finished 1-11 SU last year and that one win was Sacramento State. But they did cover seven of their last nine as underdogs as the spreads grew more and more inflated. They may not face a more inflated number as long as Tedford is here compared to what they'll see Sunday. Tedford inherited 10 returning starters on the offensive side of the ball, which is where he's considered a guru. WR KeeSean Johnson caught seven passed for 122 yds last week. The defense, much maligned LY, did its job by pitching the shutout last week while allowing only 148 yards (-7 rushing). 

It was a physical game last week vs. FSU and quite frankly, Alabama didn't play as well as the final score indicated. It was only a 269-250 edge in total yds, but they were +3 in turnovers. There were also missed field goals. All three 2nd half scoring drives (2 FGs, 1 TD) were drives of 16 yards or less. Yes, there is no denying that the Crimson Tide defense will shut FSU down. But can/will the offense be able to put up the requisite number of points to cover? I don't think so. Of those six non-covers following neutral site season openers, five were against non Power 5 teams where the Tide were favored by 28 or more. They are just 2-4 ATS the L6 times they've been favored by 31 or more. Plus, there's those injuries. Two outside linebackers - Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis - are done for the year. Two other LB's - Rashaan Evans and Anfernee Jennings - are also not 100%. So maybe Fresno State will be able to score once or twice here. That's all we need. I should also point out that Bama WR coach/co-OC Mike Locksley is dealing w/ a tragedy (son killed last weekend) and his mind might obviously be elsewhere. 8* Fresno State

8* Syracuse (3:30 ET): This seems like a very inopportune for Middle Tennessee to make it's very first ever venture into the Carrier Dome. The Blue Raiders are off a demoralizing 28-6 loss (at home) to Vanderbilt in the season opener. It was demoralizing in the sense that MTSU went into that game very much thinking they could compete w/ an in-state rival from the big, bad SEC. That's not the way things played out, however, as they were instead outgained 367-215. Dominated in time of possession, the Blue Raiders trailed 28-0 going into the 4Q. As for Syracuse, they whipped a FCS school (C Conn St) 50-7 w/ 586 yds total offense. Dino Babers' team is going to score plenty in 2017 and is an experienced bunch on both sides of the ball. They have 19 returning starters from last year, tied for most in the entire country!

I must concede that this kind of price range is somewhat unprecedented for recent Syracuse football. The Orange haven't even been favored against a FBS opponent since Wk 3 of 2015 when they squeaked by Central Michigan in overtime. The last time they were favored by double digits over a FBS opponent was Tulane, -17, back in the fourth game of '13! But Babers has himself a team this year, especially on offense. Keep in mind that the Orange underwent significant scheme changes on both sides of the ball LY. The hire and schematic changes should now start to pay dividends. Facing a MTSU defense that does not project to be very good this season, I expect plenty of points from Syracuse and as you can tell by the total for this matchup, the oddsmakers do too. 

Of course, when the total is this high, the favorite is also expected to give up some points. But the MTSU offense failed to impress last week and one edge Syracuse has here is they'll be facing former HC Scott Shafer (recruited most of Orange players), so they should be familiar w/ what he wants to run. Last week's loss saw Shafer's defense allow three different TD drives of 75+ yards to a Vandy offense that is basically the opposite of prolific. You may be shocked the 'Cuse is laying this many points, but don't be, they're going to score plenty Saturday afternoon. Middle Tennessee is just 3-19 SU in road openers and 0-4 vs Power 5 schools the L4 seasons, the latter record seeing them get outscored by 20 PPG. 8* Syracuse 

10* Army (12:00 ET): Buffalo had no problem covering a generous spread LW at Minnesota, losing only 17-7 on the scoreboard. My take is that bettors will look at that final, see the Bulls competed hard against a school from the Big 10, and think it's reasonable to assume they won't lose by a larger margin against a smaller school. But that would be wrong. Going inside LW's box score reveals the Bulls were hardly impressive (only 262 total yds gained) and the score could have been a lot worse. Minnesota not only threw an INT in the end zone, but missed two FG attempts. Buffalo could not run the ball at all (51 yds on 22 carries) and punted eight times. Now they must turn around to take on a very difficult opponent to prepare for, that being Army and it's triple option attack. Furthermore, this is a revenge game for the favorite. Lay the points. 

Army is no longer a pushover. Last year marked a breakthrough for HC Jeff Monken, who is now in his fourth year at West Point. The Cadets finished 8-5 and won a bowl game w/ the highlight of the season clearly being the win over Navy, which snapped a 14-game losing streak to their rival. This year's team, which is quite experienced for a service academy (usually lose plenty of starters to graduation year to year), has a chance to bring back the Commander-in-Chief trophy to West Point for the 1st time in a very long time. We know what the offensive gameplan is going to be: run, run and run some more. Last week, they totaled 513 yards on the ground against overmatched Fordham in a 64-6 win. That doesn't bode well for a Buffalo defense that was run on 51 times last week and allowed 169 yards. I expect the Black Knights to dominate this game in the trenches.

As mentioned above, this is also a revenge game for Army. Last year, they started 3-0 (all three wins by 15+ pts), only to then go to Buffalo and lose a heartbreaker, 23-20, in overtime. Army certainly had its chances to win. They led 10-0 at halftime and 20-6 going into the fourth quarter. But then, a defense which was very good over the course of the season, shockingly gave up B2B TD drives late. Army missed a FG (only 34 yards) w/ just three seconds left in regulation and then another in OT. That's when Buffalo made theirs (FG) for the outright win as 13-pt dogs. Army dominated the game in terms of total yardage (444-265 edge) and I'm sure hasn't forgotten the way things ended. While you don't see the Black Knights laying double digits too often, based on LY's pointspread, this is a real value as the spread should be closer to three touchdowns. 10* Army