10* Colorado State (10:00 ET): Last week saw the Mountain West Conference join the College Football season, although that did not include Colorado State, whose scheduled game vs. New Mexico had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. The Rams are expected to be an improved outfit this year under new coach Steve Addazio, who was fired after a solid (if unspectacular) tenure at Boston College. CSU actually outgained its foes in conference play last year despite a 3-5 SU record and should improve their -11 TO margin as well. I look for Addazio to have a successful debut Thursday night. Lay the short number. 

Fresno State really nosedived last season as they won just 4 games after B2B 10+ win seasons. That resulted in Jeff Tedford stepping down as HC and being replaced by former assistant Kalen DeBoer. The Bulldogs did play last week and I didn’t exactly see a lot of reasons for optimism as they were shredded on the ground by Hawaii in a 34-19 home loss. The Bulldogs gave up 323 yds rushing (6.1 YPC!) and 552 yards total. They also turned the ball over four times in a game where they were 2.5-pt favorites. 

The line has moved in CSU’s direction for this Thursday night affair and I have to say that I AGREE with the move. The Rams won here last season, 41-31, as a 2-TD underdog and have now covered five of the last seven meetings overall. They have a senior QB in Patrick O’Brien, who should have a good season. His top receiver from a year ago (Warren Jackson) is gone, but expect Dante Wright to step up and fill those shoes. CSU had an excellent pass defense a year ago (ranked 7th nationally). Not only did Fresno State score just 19 pts last week, but both TD drives were 33 yards or less. 10* Colorado State

10* LA Dodgers (8:08 ET): The Dodgers have brought the Rays to the brink of elimination. I’m going to say they end this on Tuesday and win the franchise’s 1st World Series trophy since 1988 (Orel Hershiser). My last WS play was of course on the Dodgers (in Game 3) and it was a *10* Game of the Year winner. Had they been able to hold on in Game 4 (lost in final at-bat), then this series would already be over. I think we all knew they were the superior team coming into the series. Nothing over the L5 games has changed my opinion. 

Game 5 saw LA jump on Rays’ starter Tyler Glasnow early. Clayton Kershaw & the Dodgers’ bullpen made it hold up as TB was held to four runs or less for the 11th time in 13 games. That’s just not enough offense to defeat what was the highest scoring ballclub in all of baseball during the regular season. Now the Rays have obviously won twice in this series and both times they did put up a good number of runs (6 and 8). But their offense remains entirely too dependent on the HR ball. Over 70% of the Rays’ total runs scored this postseason have come via the home run. 

The Game 6 pitching matchup is the same as it was for Game 2. Now Game 2 was a Tampa Bay victory and Tony Gonsolin, who Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts used more as an “opener” was only left in for 1 ⅓ innings. I expect him to go longer this time. Blake Snell had more control issues in Game 2 for the Rays, walking four batters for a second straight outing. The Dodgers certainly don’t want to “let” this series get to a Game 7. They had “only” six hits on Sunday. After a game w/ six (or fewer hits) this postseason, the Dodgers are 5-1 their next game. There have been only four times all season that LA has lost when having 6 or less the previous game. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Inter Milan (1:55 ET): Though they largely outplayed Gladback in the opening match of the group stage, Inter had to settle for a 2-2 draw. On the domestic front (Serie A), they got back to taking care of business as over the weekend they dominated Genoa 2-0. I thought Inter was perhaps Italy’s best team last season, even though they finished behind perennial winner Juventus. Back in the Champions League, I expect a full three points on Tuesday as they face Shakhtar Donetsk, a Ukranian side off a stunning win. 

No one saw Shakhtar’s upset of Real Madrid coming last week. The Ukranian side was widely believed to be the “long shot” of Group B, but stunned the favorites last Wednesday in a 3-2 final. Give credit where credit is due, but it was a widely panned effort from Real Madrid, who had an own goal and was in a lookahead to “El Clasico” with Barcelona over the weekend (which they won). Inter won’t be as disinterested here coming off their disappointing draw.

Shakhtar’s upsetting Real Madrid made Inter’s draw all the more disappointing as they failed to take advantage of the favorite losing. If they wish to take Group B, which is now a possibility, winning here is a must. Inter won the last fixture between these two, 5-0 back in August, part of the Europa League. Perhaps the most shocking aspect of Shkhtar’s upset last week was that they were dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak that severely weakened the roster. 8* Inter Milan

10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): Chicago is a very fraudulent 5-1 SU right now as they’ve twice come back from 17+ pt deficits to win in the 2nd half. All five wins have been by 7 pts or less. They were badly outgained two weeks ago on Thursday night by Tampa Bay, yet still managed to win 20-19. They averaged only 4.1 yards per play in that game. So far, the Bears have been outgained on both a per game and per play basis this season. In the four games they didn’t rally back from 17+ down, they have failed to score more than 23 points. This is a team I want to fade.

Meanwhile, the Rams are 5-1 ATS off their L6 SU losses. They lost to 49ers as a road favorite on SNF last week, a spot where I actually played against them. But they are 4-1 ATS L5 as a home favorite. Unlike the Bears, LA is outgaining teams on a per game and per play basis. Even though Chicago is carried by its defense, the Rams are giving up fewer yards and points per game. 

Only two teams in the Super Bowl era have pulled off five outright upsets in the first seven weeks of the season, which is what Chicago is vying to do here. The Bears have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games this year. Even though they've won two straight, I don't feel that QB Nick Foles has necessarily been any kind of improvement compared to Mitch Trubisky. 10* LA Rams

8* Tottenham (4:00 ET): The Hotspurs find themselves in the middle of the Premier League table right now, but actually own the best goal differential (+7, tied w/ Aston Villa). They are off a very shocking draw with West Ham last week where they blew a 3-0 lead, conceding all three goals in the final 10 minutes. I look for them to bounce back this week though and get the full three (points) at the expense of Burnley, who is down in the relegation zone and simply lacks the firepower to compete with Tottenham here. 

Burnley are one of four EPL sides currently without a win this campaign. They’ve played just four times, but have lost three and drawn one. That one draw was last week, against fellow winless club West Brom, and was of the scoreless variety. Burnley has scored just three times in four games, two of those goals coming in a 4-2 loss to Leicester City. Individual game efforts have not been impressive for a side that has finished 10th or lower three of the last four years. Compared to past seasons, this outfit seems weaker. 

Remember that before the Int’l Break, Tottenham crushed Man U 6-1. They are tied for most goals scored in the EPL this season (15) and that’s despite playing one fewer game than virtually everyone else. They’ve actually already bounced back somewhat from last week’s heartbreak, winning their Europa League opener 3-0 over LASK Linz. But their standing domestically is still of greater importance and I expect a very sharp performance Monday afternoon. 8* Tottenham

10* Arizona (8:25 ET): I absolutely love this play and the fact it’s been moved into the Sunday night spot makes it all the more enticing. I am nowhere near as high on the Seahawks as the market seems to be, despite Russell Wilson and company being 5-0 straight up. They have the worst defense in the league, at least in terms of yards per game allowed and they are giving up 35 more YPG passing than the next worst team. That Arizona is on a short week here while Seattle is off a bye is offset by the fact the home team is catching points. My own power rankings actually say they should be the favorite this week! Take the points. 

The Cardinals made short work of Dallas Monday night, winning that game 38-10 thanks to four Cowboys turnovers. It won’t be that easy this week, but Arizona is up for the challenge. They are 4-2 SU despite having played just two home games and one of their losses (a surprise to Detroit) was by a field goal. This will be the 1st time Arizona is getting points since their Week 1 upset of the 49ers. Though they’ve obviously seen some weak offenses to this point, the fact they are allowing just 18.7 PPG is still impressive. In fact, only Baltimore is allowing fewer points per game! 

As good as Wilson & the Seattle offense has looked, the team is being outgained on a per game basis. They have been outgained in all but one game, a 31-23 win over Miami where they were very lucky that the Dolphins kept settling for field goals. Two weeks ago against Minnesota (also on SNF), the Seahawks were outgained 449-314 and kept scoreless in the 1H by a pretty suspect defense. Arizona’s Kyler Murray has five games this season with at least one passing and one rushing TD. The Cardinals have gone 5-1-1 ATS the L7 meetings with Seattle and this is their best team during that timespan. 10* Arizona

9* Under Bucs/Raiders (4:05 ET): This was originally supposed to be the Sunday Night game, but had to be moved due to COVID-19 concerns with the Raiders. In a terrible turn of events, Las Vegas may be without its ENTIRE starting offensive line this week! That’s a horrible situation no matter the opponent, but this week the Silver and Black happen to be facing a defense that is giving up a league-low 282 YPG and is second in sacks with 22. Do not expect the Raiders to do much scoring in this one. Take the Under.

Every Raiders’ game this season has gone Over this season (your result vs. Buffalo could vary) and the Over is 7-0-1 the L8 meetings w/ the Bucs, including that Super Bowl debacle when Jon Gruden was coaching AGAINST them. But given the situation that Las Vegas is in here, you certainly expect those trends to be bucked this week. The Raiders like to run the ball, but behind a makeshift O-line that’s going against the top run defense in the league, they aren’t about to have much success doing so. 

Tampa Bay was a HUGE winner for us last Sunday (Game of the Month) as they crushed the Packers 38-10. It was the fourth time in the last five games they held the opponent to 20 points or less. If they can keep Aaron Rodgers to just 107 yards passing, imagine the nightmare Derek Carr is in for as he tries to throw the ball behind a bunch of backups. The Bucs won’t score that many points this week, simply because they won’t have to. Last week, they had a pick-six and a one-play TD drive after another INT, so 38 pts was misleading. In terms of pace of play, these are two of the slowest teams in the league. 9* Under Bucs/Raiders

9* Under Panthers/Saints (1:00 ET): Coming out of a bye is usually considered a luxury, but not if you’re NOT healthy. New Orleans will be without both their starting WRs this week as Michael Thomas is still injured and Emmanuel Sanders tested positive for COVID. This is a Saints team that’s trailed by double digits each of its last two games, both of which were against losing teams (Detroit, Chargers). Whether the injuries cost them a win this week remains up for debate, but I do think that for the 1st time this season we’re about to see a Saints’ game stay Under the total.

Carolina comes in at 3-3, which is better than most would have expected. They were favorites for the first time last week, but lost 23-16 to Chicago and really it wasn’t that close as they got their only TD in the 4th quarter. They were held to a season-low 303 total yards and for the 4th time this season were held to 23 points or fewer. On the bright side, the Panthers’ defense has been steadily improving, holding the L4 opponents to an average of just 19 PPG. They gave up only 261 total yards to the Bears last week, which was the second time in three weeks they allowed less than 300.

I don’t think the Panthers are going to move the ball on the ground very effectively in this game as the Saints defense remains very stout against the run, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry. Remember Carolina lost RB Christian McCaffrey for the season, which is a very big deal! New Orleans knows Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater well (he played for them LY) and hopefully Bridgewater can provide insight to his own defense on how to stop Drew Brees & the NO offense. These NFC South rivals do have a history of going Over against one another, but this could close as the highest O/U line for one of their games since 2016. The only other time since then we’ve seen a total of 50+, it ended up being a 12-9 final. 9* Under Panthers/Saints

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Just hold your nose and take the points. At 0-6 SU/ATS, the Jets are obviously awful and considered by just about everybody to be the worst team in the league. But also, it’s been 22 years since a team opened 0-7 SU/ATS. That’s happened only three times in the Super Bowl era. The most consecutive ATS losses to open a season was 8 (by the ‘03 Raiders), so eventually a ticket is going to cash for the Flyboys. With Sam Darnold now set to return, why not this week? This is a ton of points to be getting at home.

It’s not just about how many points the Jets are getting here, though I should point out my own power rankings say anything above 8.5 is a solid value. Buffalo is also in a terrible situation as it will be playing its third game in a 12-day span. This is the second week in a row they are on short rest. Last Monday, they came out sluggish against the Chiefs and ended up losing 26-17. It was the second straight game where they were held to 17 pts or less. While those games were against two of the AFC’s best, I’ll reiterate something I said last week & that’s I am not as high on the Bills as others seem to be. 

The Bills have a negative scoring differential on the year (-12). In addition to Darnold’s likely return, the Jets are expected to be healthy at WR for the 1st time all season. Rookie Denzel Mims is set to make his debut. He and Breshad Perriman form a pretty decent duo for Darnold to throw to. For the record, if for some reason Darnold does NOT take the field, this play still stands. Getting back to the situation for Buffalo, not only are they on short rest for a second straight week, they’ve got the Patriots on deck. The Jets have held four of six opponents below 250 yds passing and Bills QB Allen has looked suspect in the L2 games. 8* NY Jets

8* Wolfsburg (10:30 AM ET): The good news through four games is that Wolfsburg is still unbeaten. The bad news is that they are also still winless. Die Wolf has opened the 2020-21 Bundesliga campaign with four straight draws, leaving them 13th in the table, an uncomfortable position for sure. Twice, they have rallied back from 1-0 deficits, including last week against Gladbach. The other two matches have been scoreless draws. This is where they breakthrough though as they face recently promoted Arminia Bielefeld.

The recently promoted side is level with Wolfsburg at four points. DSC is 1-1-2 and just got the proverbial “rude awakening” at the hands of Bayern Munich last week, losing 4-1. There’s no shame in losing to the best team in all of Europe, but look for there to be a “carryover” type effect for Die Arminien. After winning the 2 LY, they’d been pretty competitive before running into Bayern Munich. But the issue of scoring persists. They have scored 1 or 0 goals in every game this season. 

Only two teams have scored fewer times than DSC and Wolfsburg (just 2 goals) is one of them. (Schalke is the other). But I look for Wolfsburg to “break out” on Sunday. Arminia goaltender Stefan Ortega had a rough outing against Bayern Munich and that kind of performance leads me to believe Die Wolf will have their fair share of scoring opportunities here. As discussed LW, Arminia had a very high save percentage LY down in the 2, something that is not likely to carry over to the German top flight. 8* Wolfsburg

8* West Virginia (5:30 ET): The Mountaineers have traditionally excelled as favorites, at least the few seasons they have. They are 11-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the role the L3 seasons, which includes last week’s push against Kansas where they were laying 21 points. The number is a lot more manageable this week, though WVU is on the road. But Texas Tech has really struggled in the early going and as mentioned in the Oklahoma State writeup, favorites of 4 pts or less are 20-9 ATS this season. Lay this short number as well. 

Really, Texas Tech’s “best” performance of the year came in a 63-56 overtime loss to Texas here in Lubbock. They blew a double digit 4Q lead in that one and ever since then it’s been all downhill. The Red Raiders lost 31-21 at Kansas State and then 31-15 at Iowa State two weeks ago. Their only victory of the season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then the defense surrendered 600 total yards and needed to stop a 2-pt conversion to seal an ugly 35-33 win. Henry Colombi, a Utah State transfer that followed HC Matt Wells to Lubbock, is going to be making his first career start here. 

West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous this season as it is allowing 240.3 total yards per game and only 4.05 yards per play. They played a lot better in their only loss, 27-13 at Oklahoma State, than the final score shows. On offense, the Mountaineers are running the ball a lot better than they did a year ago, averaging almost 190 YPG behind Leddie Brown. Texas Tech’s defense has just been wretched, giving up almost 500 YPG and allowing all four opponents to score at least 31 pts. 8* West Virginia

7* Under Gaethje/Nurmagomedov (4:15 ET): This is the main event of UFC 254, a lightweight title unification bout scheduled for five rounds. Even if you don’t follow the UFC regularly, you probably know the name Khabib Nurmagomedov due to his feud and subsequent victory over Conor McGregor. He is 28-0 and widely considered the best fighter in the entire world. Even though Justin Gaethje should be considered a worthy challenger, Nurmagomedov is still listed as more than a 3/1 favorite. 

Although Nurmagomedov does have 10 victories by decision, three of those came very early in his career and only one time have we seen him go a full five rounds. All we are looking for here is the fight NOT to go to the judges and by simply taking the Under 4.5 that means a stoppage by EITHER fighter is a win for us. Yes, eight of Nurmagomedov’s last nine fights have made it to round three. But it is quite likely that eventually his chain wrestling simply overwhelmes Gaethje, earning another victory. Something to consider is that Nurmagomedov has lost just ONE round in 12 UFC fights! 

Gaethje is a bit of a “wild card” in this bout as 20 of his 22 wins have come via stoppage. Nine of those have come in the first round, including three of his last four wins. So if Gaethje does “shock the world” Saturday afternoon, it isn’t likely to be by decision. Stylistically, these fighters couldn’t be more different as Gaethje has spent just 1% of his time in the Octagon on the mat while Nurmagomedov spends almost 50% of his time there. Eventually one of the fighters (likely Nurmagomedov) is going to exert their will over the other and this will end before the final bell rings, probably in Rd 3 or 4. 7* Under Gaethje/Nurmagomedov

8* Boston College (4:00 ET): Here’s another short number that has me a bit perplexed. Georgia Tech just got annihilated by Clemson last week, losing 73-7. Little is expected from the Yellow Jackets this season. Obviously, last week will be as “bad as it gets,” but I don’t think Boston College will have much problem winning this game in Chapel Hill. While they too were on the wrong end of a blowout last Saturday (40-14 vs. Va Tech), that result can easily be explained by the fact the Eagles turned it over five times. Lay the points here. 

Georgia Tech has two wins, both upsets, but neither are as impressive as they looked at the time. Opening the season with a 16-13 win at Florida State certainly turned some heads, but FSU was a much different team back then and still is nowhere as good as many thought they’d be. Two weeks ago, on a Friday night, the Yellow Jackets upset Louisville 46-27 in Atlanta. But they were actually outgained and a +3 TO margin was the story there. The other three games have seen GT get outscored 159-48. Yes, most of that was Clemson. But the Yellow Jackets also gave up 37 points to Syracuse. 

Boston College also has a couple of upset wins on its resume, theirs coming at the expense of Duke and Pitt. They also took North Carolina to the wire (lost 26-22) here at home. This will actually be just the 2nd time the Eagles have been favorites this season, the first being an unimpressive 21-16 win over Texas State. But they aren’t about to take a conference rival, one they haven’t beaten since 2007, lightly. When it’s not generating turnovers, the Georgia Tech offense can’t stop anybody. BC QB Jurkovec has gone over 300 yds passing in 4 of 5 games. I don’t see how GT shakes off last week’s loss. 8* Boston College

10* Under Alabama/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Alabama is one of only two teams in the country that’s played at least four games and has yet to see an Under. While an offense averaging 48.5 PPG (#2 in the country behind Texas, who is the other 4-0 Over team) has been a driving force, the Crimson Tide’s defense has surprisingly given up an average of 28.8 PPG, which is very high for a Nick Saban outfit. Of course, that number of PPG allowed is still heavily inflated by the Ole Miss game (where the Tide allowed 48 pts). The other three games have seen them allow no more than 24 and I think we’re in store for an Under this week.

This rivalry, played annually on the third Saturday of October, has not gone well for Tennessee in recent years. Their last win came back in 2006 (here in Knoxville), which was the year before Saban took over Bama. The Tide have been ranked in the top 8 for each of the last 12 meetings and incredibly this will be the 10th time under Saban they’ve been ranked #1 or #2 when facing Tennessee (were #1 each of the last four years). The Vols have had all sorts of trouble scoring on Saban’s defense, never scoring more than 21 and getting held to an average of just 12.3 PPG! 

Tennessee comes into this year’s matchup averaging just 23.5 PPG after it was held to only 7 points by Kentucky last week. It was the second week in a row they lost and were held below 300 total yards. They turned it over seven times during that stretch. Bama’s defense is going to get better on third down, it could rain Saturday afternoon in Knoxville and this is the highest total (by a lot) for any Tennessee game this season. For Alabama, only the Ole Miss game had a higher O/U line. While Bama can definitely score, if they are up big in the 2H, they’ll take their “foot off the gas” as per usual.  10* Under Alabama/Tennessee

9* Wake Forest (3:30 ET): Wake Forest has long been a “dangerous” team under Dave Clawson. It seems as if almost every year the Demon Deacons outperform expectations and that’s the sign of good coaching. While it was by no means an “impressive” showing, Wake covered for us in the season opener against Clemson. After that, they suffered a 3-pt loss at NC State. But now they are off B2B wins, squaring the record at 2-2 SU. The Deacons have scored a total of 148 points in the L3 games, making them a tough team to want to lay points against (as Virginia found out last week). This is a generous number you should take. 

Virginia Tech comes in off a 40-14 win over Boston College, but that final score was misleading in the sense the Hokies only had a slight +26 edge in total yards. How they were able to turn it into a blowout was thanks to FIVE BC turnovers. This Hokies’ defense has had all sorts of trouble stopping people as it is giving up 471.8 YPG. It was just two weeks ago that they gave up 56 points and 656 total yards. That was a road game. Va Tech is 0-2 ATS on the road as they also failed to cover as favorites in a 38-31 win over Duke. 

Wake Forest may not be North Carolina. But they are better than Duke, yet are getting basically the same amount of respect from the oddsmakers. Actually, this number has been steamed up a bit, which I don’t understand as my own power rankings have this one rated close to a pick ‘em! Ranked teams are a woeful 19-41 ATS this season when facing an unranked opponent and that is what we have here. Virginia Tech is just 7-19-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 2012, including 4-9-1 under Justin Fuente. The Demon Deacons are 13-5 ATS vs. Top 25 teams under Clawson, including the cover vs. Clemson in the season opener. 9* Wake Forest

8* Oklahoma State (3:30 ET): As the only Big 12 team w/o a loss, #6 OK State is probably the conference’s lone chance of sending a team to the CFP. #17 Iowa State is also unbeaten in conference play, but suffered a loss to Louisiana in the season opener that now looks worse than it did a month ago. I’m a little surprised that in Stillwater this line is so low. Favorites have generally struggled ATS this year in College Football, but have covered 10 of the 11 matchups of Top 25 teams so far. Furthermore, chalk of 4 pts or less have gone 20-9 ATS including 9-2 as the home team. Lay the short number in this one.

The reason Iowa State is getting so much respect here probably has to do with the fact HC Matt Campbell has been tremendous in his career as a dog (32-14 ATS) and is 5-0 ATS vs. Top 10 opponents. But the Cyclones easily could be 1-3 SU instead of 3-1 right now. Not only did they lose outright (as a 13-pt home favorite) to Louisiana, but they were outgained at TCU (won 37-34) and trailed by double digits against Oklahoma. Really, the only “complete” performance we’ve seen from ISU was the 31-15 win over Texas Tech two weeks ago, but that’s a team still winless in Big 12 play. This will - easily - be the best defense that will have faced to date. 

Oklahoma State has been off for three weeks (COVID-19 related, obviously), which has allowed for QB Spencer Sanders to get healthy. Sanders was injured early in the first game vs. Tulsa and the offense has certainly suffered in his absence. Yet the Pokes are still 3-0. They’ll only get better with Sanders back in the mix. The defense has allowed just 27 points in three games and is #1 in the country on third down, allowing only a 17% conversion rate. The Cowboys have won 7 of the last 8 meetings (including 34-27 LY as a 10-pt dog in Ames) and are 5-3 ATS. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Atletico Madrid (3:00 ET): Madrid certainly took a very disappointing result in the Champions League earlier this week as it lost 4-0 to Bayern Munich. While there’s obviously little shame in losing to the best side in all of Europe, getting dominated to that degree is never fun. But now there’s business to be taken care of in the domestic flight as they are sitting surprisingly low in the La Liga table (9th) despite possessing the 2nd best goal differential (+7). I expect an easy three points here. 

Atletico Madrid won for us last Saturday, 2-0 over Celta Vigo. That was a step in the right direction as they look to move up the table. Since opening with an impressive 6-1 win over Granada, they have just last week’s win and two scoreless draws. On the bright side, they are the ONLY La Liga side w/o a loss thus far and they’ve conceded just one goal in four matches. Luis Suarez was back on the scoresheet last week and you should look for Madrid to start making its move up the table. 

Real Betis is actually a point ahead of Atletico Madrid, but they’ve played twice more than the Red & Whites. They’ve also been beaten in half those six matches. They are off a 3-0 loss at the hands of table leaders Real Sociedad and that’s the kind of score you should probably be expecting again here. Betis has been very inconsistent so far, but winning here is something they’ve never been known for as their last away win in this fixture came all the way back in 2011! In the last five H2H meetings, Madrid has conceded only twice. 10* Atletico Madrid

8* Borussia Monchengladbach (9:30 ET): For a team that fancies itself as being among the elite in the German top flight, Monchengladbach has some work to do. After four games, they find themselves only 11th in the table with five points. They are coming off successive home draws, the more recent coming last Saturday against Wolfsburg. Not all is bad, however. M’gladbach is coming off an impressive 2-2 draw with Inter Milan in Champions League action earlier in the week. Their attacking style should make for an easy three points here against Mainz, who sits at the bottom of the Bundesliga table. 

Mainz isn’t just last in the table, they are the only club w/o a win here in the 2020-21 season. They are 0-4 having scored only twice while conceding 12 times. Quite frankly, it’s been a while since this side had much to cheer about. They are winless in their last six across all competitions. Relegation is looking like a serious reality here. While Gladbach has conceded in every match thus far, Mainz has been blanked two straight times. 

Having qualified for the Champions League last season, Gladbach certainly ought to be higher in the table. While teams like Frankfurt and RB Leipzig are certainly much improved, I can still see Die Fohlen earning another top four finish. The three points here are a must, however. I expect a “take no prisoners” approach on Saturday. They’ve beaten Mainz four straight times and not conceded in three of the last five meetings. 8* Borussia Monchengladbach

10* LA Dodgers (8:08 ET): The World Series is now tied at a game apiece after the Rays took Game 2 by a score of 6-4. The Dodgers remain heavily favored to win the series and off a loss, a role they are 16-5 in this season, I am going big on them. This was the best team in baseball during the regular season - both by record and run differential - and it wasn’t even close. After going with a bullpen game in Game 2, they now hand the baseball to Walker Buehler, who has a 10-2 TSR in 2020 and threw six shutout innings his last time out. Despite six runs in Game 2, I still have my doubts about the Rays’ ability to score on a consistent basis.

Tampa Bay will go with Charlie Morton. The team has won his L5 starts including Game 7 of the ALCS where Morton pitched 5 ⅔ scoreless frames. He didn’t allow a run in 10 ⅔ innings of work in the ALCS and he’s allowed 1 ER or less in his five postseason starts. That makes for a worthy adversary, but the bottom line is that the Dodgers are still the better team with the better offense. Before Game 2, the Rays had scored 4 runs or less in 9 of 10 games, the lone exception being when they scored 5. In other words, Morton will have to be near perfect for his team to have a chance here. I don’t see that happening.

Wednesday was basically a “must-win” for the Rays as the Dodgers made it a bullpen game. Sure enough, they got to “opener” Tony Gonsolin early with a Brandon Lowe home run. Quietly, one of the Rays’ best relievers - Nick Anderson - has not looked great this postseason. He’s been scored on in five straight appearances and six of eight playoff games. Buehler has the better numbers compared to Morton over the course of the season, including a 1.76 ERA his L7 starts, a stretch which has seen him give up no more than 2 ER in any one start. Tampa Bay’s offense remains far too reliant on the HR ball and Buehler has allowed only two of those in 19 postseason innings.  If Game 2 was a “must-win” for the Rays, this is a “must-win” for the Dodgers and I’ll back them to get the job done. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has played just two games in 2020 but both were against good teams (Oklahoma State, UCF) and they came out 2-0 ATS. They upset UCF as a 3 TD underdog and nearly did the same to OK State getting an even larger number (I had them in that game). The Golden Hurricane were scheduled to face a third straight ranked opponent (Cincinnati) last week, but that had to be shelved due to COVID-19. Now, off an unscheduled break, they finally get to face a lesser opponent in USF. 

South Florida looked as if they might pull off their own upset last Saturday in Temple. Getting double digits, they were ahead most of the game, but ultimately lost 39-37. That kind of effort was a “far cry” from what we’d seen from the Bulls previously. Besides Temple, they’ve been outscored 124-31 by FBS opponents. Every loss was by at least 20 points including one here at home to lowly East Carolina. The team’s only win this year was against The Citadel and they’ve allowed 39+ points in three of five games. 

While Tulsa may be unaccustomed to laying this kind of weight on the road, they should be more than ready for what shapes up as their easiest game to date. The Golden Hurricane’s defense has been much improved. After falling behind UCF early, they held the Golden Knights to just 10 points over the final three quarters. That was after holding OK State to just three points in the first three quarters of the season opener. This team was a lot better than its record showed LY and has a senior QB Zach Smith leading an offense that will continue to improve. Tulsa is simply a much better football team than USF. 10* Tulsa

8* Rennes (3:00 ET): At this point, Stade Rennes has to be sick of playing to draw. They did so in Champions League action earlier this week, conceding the equalizer to Krasnodar just three minutes after scoring on a penalty. They’ve also drawn in their last two matches here in the domestic top flight, putting the brakes on what had been a solid run to the top of the Ligue 1 table. Making matters worse is that those draws came against Reims and Dijon, the bottom two clubs in the table. Rennes could clearly use a win right now. 

Enter Angers, who may not currently be in the relegation zone, but probably ought to be. Les Scoistes have one of the worst goal differentials (-7) in the entire table, largely due to an ugly 6-1 loss to PSG three weeks ago. That was followed with their own draw, 1-1 against Metz, leaving Angers with three wins, a draw and three losses. Ironically, they hold victories over both Reims and Dijon, something Rennes could not do. But other than a 3-2 win over Brest, Angers has yet to score more than once in any fixture this campaign nor have they demonstrated any capability to compete with the top teams. 

History is not on Angers’ side here as their last win over Rennes in Ligue 1 action came all the way back in 1976! Rennes has won 11 of the past 14 meetings including 2-1 in the only fixture from last season. While Angers has scored only eight goals and conceded 15 this campaign, Rennes is just the opposite, scoring 15 and conceding only 8. Rennes is the only Ligue 1 side w/o a loss as they’ve got 4 wins and 3 draws. This is a MUST win. 8* Rennes

10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): For the first time this season, the Giants are off a win. Even though they got outgained (337-240), needed a late defensive TD and then had to hold off a late Washington 2-point try. It was a 20-19 final score. Ron Rivera’s decision to go for 2 (and the win) actually cost Giants’ bettors who played the spread as that line closed -2. But it’s back to the underdog role this week for Joe Judge and the G-Men against a similarly struggling Eagles outfit that also has just one win. I’m taking the points here. 

Philadelphia is as banged up as any team in the league right now. On Tuesday, they did announce that they expect WR DeSean Jackson and RT Lane Johnson to play in this game. However, that comes just as RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz were injured in the 30-28 loss to Baltimore on Sunday. All the injuries on offense have caused QB Carson Wentz to have a bad start to the year. While Wentz did rally the Eagles late vs. Baltimore, that was after falling behind 24-6 after three quarters and ultimately the rally fell short. 

Though both the Giants and Eagles’ games last week were ultimately decided on failed 2-point conversions in the final minute, the ironic thing is the team that won (Giants) failed to cover while the team that lost (Eagles) did cover. Still, Philadelphia remains one of the league’s biggest underachievers at 1-4-1 SU as they are 0-3 SU/ATS as favorites. This line opened too high and I still like the Giants at the current price as they’ve been in every game but one this year. The Eagles have the same number of DD losses (2) as the Giants. Their ATS woes as a favorite actually go back awhile (8-16 ATS L24) including 5-11 when laying 3.5 to 9.5. The Giants are shockingly 17-5 ATS L22 as a road dog, including 8-1 L9 when getting 3.5 to 7. 10* NY Giants

10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Arkansas State comes into this weeknight Sun Belt showdown at 3-2 SU overall on the season. They are off their 1st conference win, a wild 59-52 shootout against Georgia State, which took place last Thursday. That was a real back & forth game where neither team led by more than 7 points. It was not just the second straight game that Ark State scored 50+, it marked the second time in three games that they gave up 50+! The Over is 4-0 their L4 games. 

Appalachian State hasn’t played in almost a month due to COVID-19 cancellations. Their last game, which took place on Sept 26, also saw them hang 50+ points. But it was against a FCS opponent (Campbell). The last time App State faced an FBS opponent, which was Marshall, they lost 17-7. Their only other game was a 35-20 win over Charlotte in the season opener. The Mountaineers haven’t covered one game all year (0-3 ATS) as they head into their conference opener Thursday night. This is the highest O/U line for any of their games thus far. 

Most are going to expect a high-scoring affair here. But these teams’ offensive numbers are both somewhat inflated due to facing a FCS opponent. Expect there to be a bit of a “fire” lit under the Arkansas State defense as the coordinator was fired shortly after the Georgia State game. Appalachian State very well could be rusty on offense after such an unusually long layoff. In three road games, Arkansas State hasn’t scored more than 35 points and twice they were held below 25. They are 12-5 L17 Under as an underdog. App State is allowing only 19.3 PPG. 10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State

10* Under Rays/Dodgers (8:08 ET): For the first 3 ½ innings of Game 1, our Under bet was looking pretty good. It was a scoreless tie entering the bottom of the 4th, but unfortunately the Dodgers would then “erupt” for eight runs over the next three innings, ensuring not only victory but an Over as well. Not that the Dodgers aren’t a capable team offensively (they led MLB in scoring during the regular season!), but that aforementioned “explosion” (of runs) we saw last night was largely tied to the curious decision by Rays manager Kevin Cash to let Tyler Glasnow throw 112 pitches, the most by any Rays starter all season.

Cash will certainly have a much shorter “leash” with Game 2 starter Blake Snell. I say this not just because Snell has yet to pitch a full six innings this year (5 IP or less in 10 of 15 starts), but also the Rays’ top three relievers - Anderson, Castillo, Fairbanks - were not used at all last night. With tomorrow being an off-day, you can expect to see that trio ASAP in tonight’s game. Snell was pulled early in his last start, despite four shutout innings (did allow a walk & single to start the 5th). He’d previously allowed just one run in 5 IP in his first of the two ALCS starts vs. Houston.

Tampa Bay hit just .201 collectively in the ALCS and that number drops to .183 when you factor out Randy Arozarena. Over the L10 games, they have scored more than four runs just one time and that was when they scored five in a Game 3 win over the Astros. They have not had more than eight hits in any of their L10 games. Over 70% of their runs scored this postseason have come via the home run, which is unsustainable. Unless they can get to Tony Gonsolin early tonight, it should be more struggles at the plate. Gonsolin is likely to be on an even shorter leash than Snell here as Dave Roberts will probably treat this as a “bullpen game.” 10* Under Rays/Dodgers

10* Under Rays/Dodgers (8:09 ET): The Under hit in all but one of the seven games in the ALCS (Game 6 when I had the Over!). The Rays only hit .201 for the series against the Astros, averaging 3.6 runs per game. But an exemplary pitching staff combined to allow just 3.1 rpg. One key thing that I noticed over the course of the ALCS (and many others have certainly noticed!) is that TB doesn’t score much when they’re not hitting home runs. Other than Randy Arozarena, the Rays hit a collective .183 in the ALCS. 

The Dodgers scored the most runs in baseball during the regular season. Over the course of the NLCS they scored 39 runs, but that number is very misleading as they had one game w/ 15, 11 of those coming in one inning. The Rays’ pitching staff, with a very solid bullpen, is very comparable to Atlanta. Starters aren’t asked to go very long. Game 1 starter Tyler Glasnow has gone six innings twice, the longest outings by any Rays starter this postseason. Glasnow’s ERA is up over his L3 starts, but he generally doesn’t put many runners on base. He also had a 12-0 TSR in 12 starts before losing his lone LCS start. 

The Dodgers were held to 4 runs or fewer in 4 of the 7 NLCS games. The Rays scored more than 4 in only one ALCS game. Clayton Kershaw, who was chased in his only NLCS start, is getting the Game 1 nod and we all know his career postseason numbers aren’t great. But despite the Dodgers hitting lots of homers in the NLCS, Globe Life Field has been pretty “pitcher friendly” all season. The Rays didn’t play here during the regular season. Kershaw has a 2.44 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in 13 starts. He should be fine. Don’t see many runs being scored in Game 1. 10* Under Rays/Dodgers

10* Dallas (8:15 ET): I feel that it’s always worth monitoring “look-ahead lines.” The vast majority of the time, you won’t find much difference. But for this game, the line swung severely in the wake of the Dak Prescott injury. The only line to move more (relative to the look-ahead line) was the Sunday nighter between the Rams and 49ers. The initial adjustment here, while understandable (Prescott is a big loss!), was too severe. I know the defense has been a MAJOR question mark to this point, but I think the Cowboys with Andy Dalton are going to be alright. 

Thanks to a 2-0 start, Arizona quickly grabbed the attention of the market. This will actually be the 5th consecutive game where they are favored and third straight on the road! Consider that the Cardinals had been an underdog 16 straight times before these L5 games. Under HC Kliff Kingsbury, they are just 2-3 STRAIGHT UP as a favorite. That includes an outright loss at home to Detroit three weeks ago and an outright loss at Carolina two weeks ago. Two of their three wins this season have come against Washington and the Jets, who are maybe the two worst teams in the league. 

Dalton will have an excellent set of skill position players at his disposal. He won’t put up the numbers Prescott did, but I expect him to improve the team’s turnover margin. While I don’t think the Cowboys are going to continue to lead the league in yards per game, look for the defense to improve. Certainly, it (the defense) can’t be any worse. Dallas is the only team in the league that’s still winless ATS. So they’re due and it just so happens they’re undervalued here. Arizona has been a disaster on MNF through the years, going 2-11-1 ATS L14. The Cardinals have only forced 3 TO’s all season. 10* Dallas

8* San Francisco (8:25 ET): The lookahead line for this Sunday night NFC West matchup was Niners -3. Once they (SF) lost to Miami last week, 43-17, the line quickly “jumped the fence” and now it’s the Rams favored by a field goal. That’s far too big of a shift in my opinion as the Niners are now healthier than they have been since Week 1 and playing at home. At 2-3 SU, they have to be very disappointed as they went off as the betting favorite in all five games. They’ve been favored by 6.5 or more in four of the games. 

The Rams are just the opposite. They’ve gone 4-1 SU despite being favored only twice. They are coming off two very easy wins, the two games where they were favored, over the Giants and Redskins (who are a combined 1-9 SU). The one time this year that the Rams faced a team with a winning record was Week 3 in Buffalo and they fell behind in that game 28-3 before a miracle comeback fell short. That’s also notable because they’d played out East the week before, which is also the case here. 

The 49ers should be highly motivated this week considering they are winless at home, losing outright to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins. QB Garoppolo, who didn’t appear ready last week, is reportedly now feeling “great.” Despite being 2-3 SU, the Niners have outscored their opponents this season. They are 5-0 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, the only team in the league w/o an ATS loss when taking points during that time frame. I think this is a great value relative to where the line was originally going to be set. Take the points. 8* San Francisco

10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): I still don’t understand how the Bucs lost in Chicago last Thursday and that’s coming from someone that HAD the Bears. The Tampa defense certainly did its job, allowing just 4.1 yards per play, which I *believe* was the second lowest YPP average by any team this season (Washington averaged less in Week 1). It was 13-0 early in the 2Q. But it ended up a 20-19 final in the Bears’ favor, thanks to a last minute FG. Now at 3-2 SU, the Bucs could sure use a win here. While up against an unbeaten opponent coming off its bye, Tampa is off its own ‘mini-bye’ and I like the spot for them. 

I will freely admit that my calls for Green Bay regression in 2020 don’t look so great right now. The Packers are 4-0 and have the NFC’s best point differential. But I still don’t think they are going to match LY’s 13-3 SU record. It’s worth noting that the last three Packer opponents have been w/o their top WR. So that’s helped. GB also got the benefit of facing Minnesota in the season opener and that was their 1st game w/o Stefon Diggs. The Pack have also yet to commit a turnover, which will obviously change sooner rather than later.

Tampa Bay’s defense continues to allow under 300 YPG (#2) and you simply cannot run on them as they are allowing just 58.4 YPG over land, which is easily a league best. Green Bay has run for less than 90 yards in two of its games. With three extra days between games, the offense should be healthier as HC Bruce Arians has said he thinks WR Godwin should be ready to go. That’s huge. Despite being the only unbeaten ATS team in the league, Green Bay shouldn’t be favored here as Aaron Rodgers is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite the L5 seasons and Tom Brady is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS as a home dog. 10* Tampa Bay

9* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Playing on an atypically short week, it looks as if the Titans are being counted out again. The team just played Tuesday - when it buried Buffalo 42-16 as a 3.5-point home dog. We went with Tennessee in that one, despite all the COVID-19 distractions, and they responded in kind. Despite now being 4-0 SU, Tuesday marked the Titans’ 1st cover of the 2020 season. Maybe that’s another reason why this line is so low. But whatever the reason is, the line is TOO low. My own power rankings say Tennessee should be favored by more than a TD at home here. Lay the points. 

Houston was a prime candidate for regression in 2020 and regress they have. They were the first team to make a coaching change, firing Bill O’Brien after an 0-4 start. Predictably, the Texans responded with a win, but note that it was against a poor Jacksonville team they were favored to beat by a touchdown. Truthfully, even though this was a playoff team a year ago, the Texans weren’t very good. They had a negative point differential in 2019 and the offseason was filled with questionable personnel moves by O’Brien. That’s why I felt they were a prime candidate for regression. 

I think it’s about time we start giving Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill some much deserved credit. Since he took over as the starter here (from Marcus Mariota, remember him?), the team has gone 11-3 straight up while averaging over 30 points per game. That’s really impressive. Tannehill has been especially effective in the red zone this year, going 14 for 18 w/ 9 TD passes and no INTs. The Titans scored a TD on all 6 RZ possessions against Buffalo last week and now face a Texans defense that’s given up 28+ pts to every opponent besides Jacksonville. HC Mike Vrabel blitzed a lot on defense Tuesday and that approach should be effective again here against a suspect Texans’ offensive line. The Titans are simply a much better team than Houston and are playing at home. That’s not reflected in this line. 9* Tennessee

8* Fiorentina (9:00 AM ET): It’s been a bit of a rough start to the season for Fiorentina, who sits 14th in the Serie A table after two straight defeats. Losing Federico Chiesa (on loan to Juventus) was a tough blow for La Viola, but the three points are for the taking this week as they visit promoted Spezia, who is playing in Italy’s top flight for the 1st time in their 114 year history. Impressively, they’ve already notched a win, but it came at the expense of struggling Udinese, who seems almost certainly headed for relegation. 

If you recall, we played against Spezia in their Serie A opener. That turned out to be a 4-1 loss to Sassuolo as they were clearly outclassed. It was more of the same two weeks ago vs. AC Milan, who blanked them 3-0. So take away the match vs. Udinese and the Bianconeri have been outscored 7-1. While Fiorentina isn’t at the same level as those two opponents, they are a side that clearly expects to win Sunday. 

Making matters worse for Spezia is a litany of injuries including one to Andrey Galabinov, who is doubtful here. That’s a big problem considering he is the only player to score this season! Fiorentina more than held its own against Inter, losing 4-3, before taking a painful 2-1 loss to previously winless Sampdoria. But with this match to be followed w/ a date against the aforementioned Udinese, they’ve got a chance to climb up the table the next two weeks. Look for the favorites to grab the full three (points) here. 8* Fiorentina

10* Monaco (9:00 AM ET): Things set up quite well for Monaco to pick up three points Sunday as their opponents have been impacted COVID-19. Montpellier reported 12 positive cases on Friday, eight players and four more on the coaching staff. After further testing, only two were confirmed as actual positives. Still, it’s a problematic situation for a side that went into the international break winless in their two previous matches.

This is a very important matchup between sides currently 6th and 7th in the Ligue 1 table. Monaco needs to take advantage of the situation. They are also off a loss as they were kept clean two weeks ago by Brest. That 1-0 defeat was especially painful as they really dominated possession (21 shots to 7!) but they gave up an early goal and could never get the equalizer. It was the first time this season that Monaco was blanked.

Had all those positive tests not been a false alarm, this would have been a dream scenario for Monaco. As things stand now, I still expect them to take advantage of all the midweek chaos Montpellier had to endure. Manager Michel Der Zakarian is one of the two actually confirmed as being positive and that’s certainly a loss. Monaco won 1-0 the last time these two sides met (back in February), their 1st triumph over Montpellier since 2017. Make it two in a row now. 10* Monaco

10* Houston (8:37 ET): Though I’m personally not a big believer in the concept of “momentum,” there is no denying that this ALCS has taken a dramatic swing with the Astros winning three straight to force a Game 7. This is only the 2nd time in MLB playoff history that a team that this has happened. The other occasion was the ‘04 Red Sox, who of course made history by winning Game 7 (against the Yankees) and then went on to win the World Series. My feeling is that the Astros have outplayed the Rays in this series and they will make history again.

Even when they lost the first three games, Houston was hitting the ball better than Tampa Bay. They now have 52 hits in the series, compared to only 38 for the Rays. We finally got an Over last night (that was my play!) and it’s become patently obvious that TB struggles to score when they’re not hitting home runs. Keep in mind that the Rays only managed three hits in each of their L2 games of the Yankees series. Collectively, they are hitting below .200 the L8 games. 

The same starters that were on the mound in Game 2 will be called up on here in Game 7. While Charlie Morton and the Rays emerged victorious in that game, 4-2, let’s not understate how well Lance McCullers pitched for Houston. He had 11 strikeouts in 7 IP, only to be foiled by giving up 2 HR’s. McCullers will heavily be leaned on here by manager Dusty Baker while Morton likely won’t go more than five innings for the Rays. It comes down to McCullers and the Astros’ offense against the Rays bullpen and I choose the former as this time I think Houston can get to Morton. They’ve been the better team in the series and deserve to win no matter what you think of them (because of the cheating scandal). 10* Houston

10* North Texas (5:00 ET): This week’s top selection boils down to the simple fact that I don’t think Middle Tennessee deserves to be laying a TD to anyone. This is a team that opened its season with a pair of horrible losses, 42-0 at Army and 47-14 to Troy, the latter of which I cashed in on. I did then turn around and tell you to take the points as the Blue Raiders traveled to UTSA on a Friday night. They covered there (as 6-pt dogs), but still lost by two. Another close loss (20-17) followed, at the hands of Western Kentucky, leaving MTSU at 0-4. Finally, they won a game last week, though it was by just a FG over FIU.

The fact Middle Tennessee was a 6-point underdog to UTSA should tell you “all you need to know.” The market has shifted too far in the other direction following three consecutive ATS victories. I have these teams rated almost dead even, so even if factoring in a little bit of a home field edge for MTSU, this number should be a lot shorter. It will be the first time this season that the Blue Raiders are favored. I’m not going to try and convince you that North Texas is a great team, but the Mean Green do have a great offense that will put up enough points to stay within the number here. 

North Texas actually entered last week with a Top 10 rushing offense (in the country!) but were held to just 97 yards on 27 attempts as they fell behind early against Charlotte. It was the third straight game the defense gave up 41+ points. But the Mean Green still lead C-USA with 550 total YPG and 347 passing. QB Austin Aune is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. Middle Tennessee is still giving up 35 PPG and has failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve been favored. Had the Blue Raiders not scored a GW TD in the final 80 seconds last week, they’d be entering this game at 0-5 and we’d have a much more accurate line. Take the points. 10* North Texas

10* Jamie Mullarkey (5:10 ET): This prelim bout is scheduled for three rounds. We’ve got two fighters from the lightweight division (155lbs) that are both looking for their first ever UFC win. Mullarkey, who is 12-3 in his pro MMA career, is fighting for the first time in over a year. His UFC debut was a pretty exciting affair as he lost a unanimous decision to Brad Riddell, a result that doesn’t look bad at all in retrospect seeing how Riddell has progressed since that time. I expect Mullarkey to get his hand raised on Saturday night. 

Fares Ziam is 10-3 in his career and his UFC debut also came a little over a year ago. Like Mullarkey, it was a decision loss, although in the case of Ziam he was a lot less competitive and really got dominated over the 15 minutes by Don Madge. Ziam does have some good kickboxing ability, but didn’t get to show that against Madge and instead was just bullied up against the cage and lost most of the grappling exchanges. Ziam never really could escape Madge’s clinch. 

If Riddle couldn’t put Mullarkey away, Ziam certainly shouldn’t be able to. Meanwhile, all but one of Mullarkey’s 12 wins have been finishes. He has eight knockouts and three submissions in his career. Mullarkey should get the best of the wrestling in this one and Ziam’s greatest asset (his reach) won’t be a factor here either as Mullarkey has a similar reach. 10* Jamie Mullarkey

9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas (3:30 ET): When Lane Kiffin was hired to be the head coach of Ole Miss, you had to figure there wouldn’t be many dull Saturdays in Oxford. But even by Kiffin standards, these first three games have been pretty insane (especially last week’s). There have been 86, 83 and 111 pts scored. However, some context should be provided as they’ve faced two top five teams (Florida & Alabama) plus the one win (over Kentucky) went to OT. Still, that’s a lot of scoring. The Over is obviously 3-0 in Ole Miss games. 

It was thought that by playing an all-SEC schedule this year, Arkansas would be having many LONG Saturdays. However, the Razorbacks seem to be vastly improved as they’ve won at Miss State and should have won at Auburn last week. Being 3-0 ATS (also covered vs. Georgia) is a nice way for HC Sam Pittman’s own SEC tenure to begin as they hadn’t seen many league wins in Fayetteville in recent years. Prior to Pittman taking over, the Hogs had lost 19 in a row in conference play.

This is the highest total on the board this week in College Football, which I can’t say surprises me. But the Ole Miss’ offense can’t possibly keep putting points on the board like it has and this is an obvious flat spot after the Alabama loss. The defense can only improve and facing one of the weaker SEC offenses is the perfect prescription. Arkansas is only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games. For a game to go Over this number, Ole Miss needs a suitable “dance partner” and the Razorbacks are simply NOT that team. 9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas

8* Over Bayern Munich/Arminia Bielefeld (12:30 ET): It was a real shocker when Bayern, the class of all of European soccer, took a loss so early in the Bundesliga campaign. Back on September 27th, they fell 4-1 at the hands of Hoffenheim. To be fair, they were just three days removed from winning the UEFA Super Cup so perhaps that was a hangover. Right before the International Break, the Bavarians took another scare but were able to outlast Hertha Berlin 4-3. They now have 13 goals in three Bundesliga matches. 

Recently promoted Arminia Bielefeld has been more competitive than expected through its first three matches. They opened by drawing a very good Eintracht Frankfurt side, then beat FC Cologne 1-0. Finally, they tasted defeat at the top flight when they fell 1-0 to Werder Bremen. The lack of scoring in Arminia’s games should come as no shock to anyone that followed them last season when they won the 2. That said, they won’t be able to maintain that kind of save percentage this season, especially Saturday against the standard-bearers. 

It has been said that Bayern Munich seemingly scores goals for “fun.” While no Arminia Bielefeld game has seen more than two total goals scored, they are in for a “rude awakening” here on Saturday. Bayern should easily get three, if not four and send this one Over themselves. If Arminia can score, which they very well may given Bayern’s defensive lapses, then this is a lock to go Over. Scoring is way up across all Euro leagues this season and this one continues the trend. 8* Over Bayern Munich/Arminia Bielefeld

8* Under Navy/East Carolina (12:00 ET): Last week marked the first time Navy played a “good” full 60 minutes of football. Their first win, 27-24 over Tulane, saw them have to battle back from a 24-0 halftime deficit. So it had to feel good to lead the whole way against Temple, even if the Midshipmen needed to stop a late 2 pt conversion for the win. Still, let’s not pretend “all is well” in Annapolis. The Middies were still outgained LW (407-299) and their two losses this year have come by a total of 85 points. 

East Carolina had its own problems the first two games (gave up 100 points!) but finally got into the win column LW with a 44-24 win over USF, who looks to be as bad as any team in the American Conference this season. Last week marked the first game this year that the Pirates didn’t turn the ball over (had 7 TO’s first two weeks). Like Navy, I don’t expect things to go as well offensively here as they did a week ago. ECU cannot again expect to the beneficiary of four scoring drives that start in opposing territory, which is what happened against USF. 

With these teams having combined to go 7-0 Over, it’s a little surprising that the total has come down. But this is a high O/U line for Navy. The previous high was last week (51.0) and none of their games have seen more than 60 pts scored. All of East Carolina’s games have been high-scoring, but like Navy, they look to control the clock. The Pirates actually lead the American in time of possession. Navy’s run game is not as effective as it’s been in years past (3.5 YPC) and they are averaging less than 260 total YPG. This will be a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 8* Under Navy/East Carolina

8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET): Considering the performance we just saw Miami turn in at Death Valley, the line move here has me really perplexed. As I’d anticipated, “The U” got totally outclassed by top-ranked Clemson last Saturday night in a 42-17 defeat that really could have been much worse. The Hurricanes were outgained 550-210 and got one of their two TDs off a blocked FG attempt at the end of the half. Clemson also missed two field goals and had a WR drop a pass that would have resulted in a TD. 

The question now becomes - “how does Miami respond after such a humbling defeat?” Well, history really doesn’t seem to be on their side. First off, the last three ACC teams to lose to Clemson have all lost again the following week. Furthermore, since 2009, ranked teams are 9-25 ATS the week after facing the Tigers including 2-9 ATS if they are laying double digits. The ‘Canes are 2-0 ATS as DD chalk so far this season, but those games were against UAB and Florida State. Prior to this season, they’d been on a 2-14 ATS run when favored by seven or more points and last year they went 0-4 ATS w/ three outright losses as DD chalk. 

Like Miami, Pitt has taken a step back following a 3-0 SU start. They’ve lost B2B weeks, but those losses (BC, NC State) were both by one point. Basically, the Panthers are two plays away from being 5-0. They outgained NC State by more than 100 yards, but gave up a late TD pass. Then they lost in OT to BC on a missed XP. QB Kenny Pickett, who leads the FBS in passing yards, is dealing with an injured ankle. That may explain the line move, but HC Pat Narduzzi seemed hopeful that he would play. Regardless, Narduzzi is 18-9-1 ATS in road games including 5-1 as a DD dog. Take the points. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Atletico Madrid (10:00 AM ET): After opening the La Liga campaign with a dominant 6-1 win over Granada, Atletico Madrid played to a pair of scoreless draws with Huesca & Villarreal. Not what the Red & Whites were hoping for there, though it’s still early on and there’s plenty of points left for the taking. Atletico has played only three La Liga matches thus far, due to its ongoing involvement in the Champions League. Speaking of which, this Wednesday sees them traveling to face Bayern Munich (the class of Europe) in that particular event. Arriving there in peak form is what they’re looking for & I expect a win from this side on Saturday.

Celta Vigo also has five points, though that’s with the benefit of five matches. So the comparison to Atletico Madrid is not an apt one considering they’ve played two more times. The campaign started well enough for Celta as they were 1-2-0 through three matches, but they’ve been kept clean in each of the last two in Spain’s top flight. They were beaten 3-0 by Barcelona here at home, then 2-0 at Osasuna right before the international break. 

Even though Celta Viga has played two more times than Atletico Madrid, it seems odd to see these two sides tied in the middle of the table. Atletico Madrid is a name I expect to see near the top while Celta have just barely avoided relegation the L2 years (B2B 17th place finishes).Atletico has been victorious only once against Celta its last four La Liga tries and has not won here since October 2017. Nevertheless, led by Luis Suarez, expect them to get the full three (points) here. 8* Atletico Madrid

7* RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): Two of the early pacesetters in the German Bundesliga meet Saturday in WWK Arena. Both Leipzig and Augsburg have taken seven out of a possible nine points thus far. Leipzig’s draw came in Week 2 with Bayer Leverkusen (1-1) and they bounced back from that by blasting overmatched Schalke 4-1 the following week. Augsburg played to a scoreless draw with Wolfsburg last time out. Despite the matching resumes, there is one side I clearly prefer in this one and it should be obvious who that is.

A line like this, when you’re talking about two teams tied at the top of the table, should raise eyebrows. While it's still very early in the campaign, no one expects Augsburg to stay at the top. Die Fuggerstadter has conceded only once thus far, tied for the Bundesliga lead, but look for that stinginess to “wear off” come Saturday. Leipzig has only conceded twice while scoring eight times, which is three more than Augsburg. Note Augsburg has only beaten Leipzig once in eight Bundesliga matchups. It was 3-1 and 2-1 in favor of Die Rotten Bullen last year.

Leipzig has gone eight straight away matches w/o tasting defeat. A ninth straight would be a club record. But make no mistake about it, this side is not interested in a draw. They had 12 draws in the last campaign, which cost them. They want a win here heading into the Champions League. Meanwhile, this is Augsburg’s best ever start in the Bundesliga and it’s not going to last. 7* RB Leipzig

10* Over Astros/Rays (6:07 ET): None of the ALCS games so far have gone Over. We’re looking at a 5-0 Under mark and going back to the LDS, the Rays are 7-0 Under their L7. During that time, Tampa Bay is hitting just .174 as a team (yet has managed to go 5-2!). But the lack of hitting seems to be catching up on them as the L2 days have seen them fail to eliminate the Astros, losing 4-3 in both games. I feel we’re going to get that “elusive” Over tonight as this series has certainly seen plenty of home runs. 

Five of the seven runs scored in last night’s game came via the home run. The Rays hit three, but all were solo shots! Of course, a home run is what decided the game as Houston’s Carlos Correa “called his shot” and walked off in the bottom of the ninth. The Astros now have six home runs in the L3 games of the series. They’ve homered in every game this postseason besides the first one. They’ve got 21 HR’s in 11 games, hitting multiple in seven of the last nine. The one run they scored off Blake Snell in Game came via the long ball. Remember that Snell had allowed three HR’s in his lone LDS start against the Yankees. 

Tampa Bay has homered in all but two postseason games and six multi-HR games. They homered against Framber Valdez in Game 1. If only we could have some runners on base when these homers are being hit, we would have seen multiple Overs in this series! I know Game 1, which had the same exact starting pitching matchup as tonight (Valdez vs. Snell), was a 2-1 final. But we’ve seen six or seven total runs scored in each of the L4 games. Finally, the Astros and Rays get over the “scoring hump” tonight as both bullpens have seen heavy usage and may be running out of gas. 10* Over Astros/Rays

10* Tulane (6:00 ET): Tulane is 2-2 SU on the year, but easily could be 4-0. In both losses, they held a double digit lead - 24-0 over Navy and 24-7 over Houston. Now the Green Wave only managed to gain a paltry 221 total yds LW vs. Houston, but considering they were +5 in turnovers, that’s a game you HAVE to win. While it should be pointed out that Tulane did have to come from behind (at South Alabama) for one of its two wins, they also waxed Southern Miss 66-24 the first time I took them. This will be the third straight time (also had them vs. Houston), but the difference now is they’re a home dog for the 1st time in 2020.

SMU is 4-0. They’ve had a couple of close wins, the first being the season opener at Texas State (where I cashed the Under) and then two weeks ago against Memphis. In that Memphis game, the Ponies prevailed 30-27 as a 1.5-pt favorite. But the defense gave up nearly 600 total yards, only to benefit from four Memphis turnovers. Note that three of those turnovers took place in Mustangs territory, one of them an end zone INT. It was the second time this year that the SMU defense surrendered over 500 yards. 

SMU might be coming into this one ranked #17 in the country, but that’s a case of the pollsters simply looking at the WL record w/o any real context. I’ve got them outside the top 30 of my own power rankings and that doesn’t even include teams from the Big 10/Pac 12. SP+ has them at #40. Tulane’s running game, which was shockingly held to just 70 yds last week, is usually very effective. Take away a game vs. FCS Stephen F Austin and the SMU run defense gives up over 200 YPG at 4.7 YPC. While the SMU offense is #1 in the country in yards per game, they just lost their leading rusher and receiver to injury in the Memphis game and that is obviously quite significant. SMU is just 2-6 ATS its L8 tries as a road favorite while Tulane has covered five in a row as a home dog. Having lost five years in a row to SMU, this is a revenge game. Take the points here. 10* Tulane

10* LA Dodgers Run Line (8:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Dodgers -1.5.  Coming into the playoffs, we all knew that the Braves’ main weakness was their (lack of) starting pitching depth. For the first seven games, it hadn’t been an issue as the team was able to use Max Fried and Ian Anderson (their two “good” starters) a total of six times and Kyle Wright stepped up the one time he’d been called upon. But Wright was an unmitigated disaster last night, giving up seven runs in ⅔ of an inning. By the time the first inning was complete, the Dodgers led 11-0. It was the most runs scored in an inning in MLB postseason history. Game 3 ended as a 15-3 win for the Dodgers. All of a sudden, this is a series again. 

Now Atlanta must turn to Bryse Wilson, who started all of two games in the regular season. He allowed just one run in eight innings, but that’s a really limited sample size and he never had to face a Dodgers lineup that scored the most runs in all of MLB this season. After scoring just one run in the first 15 innings of this series, LA has exploded for 22 runs across the L12 innings. The 15 runs they scored yesterday tripled what the Braves had allowed in the first 60 innings of this postseason. 

The other big story for Game 4 is the return of Clayton Kershaw. He was supposed to start in Game 2, but was scratched due to back spasms. Kershaw’s replacement (Tony Gonsolin) failed to get the job done, but look for Kershaw to step up as he’s allowed just 3 ER across 14 IP this postseason w/ 13 strikeouts. The Dodgers are 10-2 when Kershaw starts this season and he has a 2.12 ERA and 0.816 WHIP. This may not get as “ugly” as yday’s game, but the Dodgers will again win by multiple runs. 10* LA Dodgers RUN LINE (-1.5)

10* Georgia State (7:30 ET): Georgia State has played only two games so far. They’ve covered both and probably should be 2-0 straight up as well. They opened the season by taking on Sun Belt favorite Louisiana. In that game, the Panthers jumped out to an early 2 TD lead. That’s pretty significant as they were 17-point underdogs! Unfortunately, they could not hold on, losing 34-31 in overtime. After a game with Charlotte was postponed (COVID), Georgia State wasn’t going to be denied against East Carolina. Despite being a 1.5-point dog (at home), the Panthers led by 25 in the 1st half and won 49-29.

Arkansas State has played four games. They are 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. Clearly, the Red Wolves’ most impressive performance to date was the win over Kansas State. They went to Manhattan and won 35-31 as a 15-point dog. Give ASU credit for that win, but they’ve also lost by 13 to Memphis and by 29 at Coastal Carolina. In both losses, the defense surrendered 500+ yards. Saturday’s 50-point effort doesn’t “carry much water” with me as it was against a FCS team (Central Arkansas). It was also only five days ago! So this is a very unusual, quick turnaround for the team laying points. 

Georgia State is much more rested coming into this Thursday night game. In its two losses, Arkansas State has surrendered over 200 rush yards. That’s notable with Georgia State having rushed for 480 yards in its two games. So far, the ASU defense ranks LAST among Sun Belt teams, giving up 456.5 yards and 36.8 points per game. Last year, Georgia State put up 52 points and 722 total yards (340 rushing) on this ASU defense. A team that’s led both games by DD, getting points, is a good value against a side that has barely led in any of its games vs. FBS opposition. 10* Georgia State

10* Houston Run Line (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Astros +1.5. Tampa Bay has gone an incredible 16-5 in one-run games this season, including postseason. That .762 win percentage would be the best EVER for a team in any season in baseball history. The Rays took Game 1 by a score of 2-1 and have since taken advantage of some sloppy Astros’ defense to win 4-2 and 5-2. This is obviously a “must-win” for the Astros and I don’t think they’re ready to go home yet. 

The Astros have to be kicking themselves that they’re down 0-3 in this series. They have more hits than the Rays (26-18) and that edge should probably be even larger based on how much they’re making contact. But Tampa Bay’s superior fielding has been the difference so far in the ALCS as the L2 days have seen Jose Altuve make costly errors, giving the Rays the one big inning that they needed. TB has scored all but one of its runs the L2 days in just two innings. 

Getting Zack Greinke +1.5 runs is a luxury you rarely see. Greinke has been a ML dog only three times this season, not counting tonight. The last time was Game 1 of the 1st round series with Minnesota, which Houston won. One of the other two times resulted in a one-run loss. The Rays will start Tyler Glasnow in Game 4. He has a 12-2 TSR this season including 11-0 the L11! But, despite the shiny team start record, Glasnow’s numbers are very similar to Greinke. The 3-0 lead the Rays currently enjoy is not really indicative of how this series has gone. 10* Houston Run Line (+1.5)

10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Coastal Carolina is much improved this season as they have averaged a Sun Belt best 44.3 PPG during a 3-0 start. QB Grayson McCall, who has completed 67% of his pass attempts thus far while averaging a stunning 17.3 yds per completion, has added a passing dimension that the offense clearly lacked last season. But if it feels like the Chanticleers’ offense has overachieved thus far, that’s because it has. Now it’s set to face the Sun Belt’s best defensive and overall team, Louisiana. Look for CC’s offense to be slowed down in this one. 

The key for Coastal Carolina’s offense so far has been leading the country in time of possession (they play at a very slow tempo) and converting at what is an unsustainable rate on third down (6th in the country). Enter the Louisiana defense which was tops in the SBC a year ago and returned eight starters. So far the Ragin Cajuns are giving up less than 21 PPG in regulation and they are very good on third down. Coastal Carolina’s offense lacks explosiveness and hasn’t faced a defense this good all season, so yes, their numbers are set to come down pretty dramatically. 

Both teams are going to look to run the ball Wednesday night, so look for that clock to always be moving. Louisiana’s offense has been disappointing so far as it has averaged just 26.3 PPG in regulation. Since upsetting Iowa State in the opener, the Cajuns were very nearly upset themselves each of the L2 games. Coastal Carolina is also improved on the defensive side of the ball as they have 26 TFL and a Sun Bet-leading 13 sacks. Look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana

8* LA Dodgers (6:05 ET): At no point during this season have the Dodgers dropped three in a row. It would be very untimely for it to happen now. Down 0-2 to the Braves in the NLCS, tonight is basically a “must-win” for Dodger Blue or their season will be on the brink. This is only the fifth time all season that they’ve lost B2B games and just the third since August 13th! They were MLB’s best team in the regular season - both by record & run differential. Game 1 was a 1-1 game entering the ninth and then last night saw their bats FINALLY wake up (too little, too late) as they scored seven runs off the Braves’ bullpen. LA wins Game 3. 

If Atlanta has a weakness, it’s their starting pitching depth. Only one time in this 7-0 playoff run have they had to go to someone else besides Max Fried or Ian Anderson. That was Game 3 of the Miami series when they used Kyle Wright. Wright will again get the Game 3 nod for this series. While Wright was “lights out” vs. the Marlins, he still has a 4.50 ERA and 1.455 WHIP on the year. In each of the first two games of this series, the Dodgers have had the Braves’ starter in trouble early, but have failed to capitalize. That changes here. 

The Dodgers had won 9 in a row coming into this series. If they can win here, the Braves rotation will be put in “uncharted territory,” at least for the postseason. Clayton Kershaw was scratched yesterday in an unfortunate circumstance, so today they need a huge outing from Julio Urias, who last started a game on September 17th. Out of 10 starts this season, Urias allowed 2 ER or fewer eight times. He only gave up 5 HR’s. I just can’t see LA losing three in a row as that’s a scenario that would have been deemed unfathomable at the start of the series. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Houston (8:40 ET): The Astros have to be wondering “how are we down 0-2 in this series?” They have outhit Tampa Bay 19-10 in the two games, including 10-4 yesterday. In fact, going back to the final two games of the Yankees series, the Rays have collected all of 16 hits in their L4 games! But most of them have been timely and/or home runs. Two costly Jose Altuve errors really burned Houston in Game 2, the first especially as it opened the door for a 3-run TB first inning. Obviously, the Astros need this game badly. Considering how they’ve outhit the Rays so far, I’ll take them. 

As someone who had the Rays in Game 2, I can safely say Lance McCullers outpitched Charlie Morton. Astros pitching combined for 13 strikeouts and no walks yesterday while Rays counterparts had a ratio of 8-3. Had Altuve not made that costly error in the first inning, Manuel Margot doesn’t come up to the plate with two runners on and hit a 3-run HR. Take that one pitch away and Houston would have won Game 2, 2-1.  I thought the Astros’ hitters made great contact yday and could have had even more hits/scoring opportunities. Alex Bregman was a very misleading 0 for 5 at the plate as he put all five balls in play at 98 MPH or faster. 

After totaling just three runs in the first two games, look for the Astros to come alive tonight in Game 3. Ryan Yarbrough will start (no opener like the ALDS) and keep in mind he has not won a decision all year. Four of his last seven outings, Yarbrough has allowed 4+ runs. But the heavy burden falls on Astros’ starter Jose Urquidy, who comes in with a 3.29 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. His ALDS start wasn’t great (allowed 4 solo HR’s!), but that was also his worst outing of the year. Considering that they have hit the ball better than TB in both of the first two games, the Astros are due for a win here. 10* Houston

8* Tennessee (7:00 ET): Given all the trials and tribulations associated with the COVID-19 outbreak, taking Tennessee in this spot may seem a bit “crazy.” With their facility shut down, practicing has been “touch and go.” And the team’s two top receivers - Corey Davis and Adam Humphries - are among those who have tested positive. All and all, 23 players and staff have tested positive since 9/23, making this a very trying season in Nashville. But the Titans are 3-0 straight up, even while they are 0-3 against the spread. 

The Buffalo bandwagon is beginning to fill as the Bills are 4-0 SU with an offense that is outperforming expectations. While the Titans’ three wins have come by a total of six points, Buffalo’s last three wins have also all been of the one-score variety. Two were by just a field goal, and while they enjoyed DD leads in both of those games, it’s worth noting the defense has struggled to hold leads in the second half. The Bills have been outgained by their opponents - the Rams and Raiders - each of the last two weeks. 

Were this game taking place under “normal circumstances,” I’d have Tennessee favored. These are anything but normal circumstances, but I think the line is an overreaction. I think people have forgotten the Titans are also undefeated, not to mention made the AFC Championship Game last year. This is going to be a very motivated football team come Tuesday night. I’m not as high on the Bills (relative to most people) and they too have been adversely affected by the change in schedule. The underdog has gone 5-0 ATS the L5 times these teams have met. Tennessee is 8-4 ATS L12 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 pts w/ seven outright wins. 8* Tennessee

10* Under Chargers/Saints (8:15 ET): The Under has not been a popular bet either of the L2 weeks on MNF. You had the Chiefs taking on the Ravens and the Falcons facing the Packers. In the case of the latter, it was the league’s worst defense facing the top offense. Yet both times the Under hit and I’m proud to report I was on it both times. With the record amount of scoring we’re seeing across the league, more opportunities to take the Under are going to open up and for the 3rd week in a row on MNF, this is one of them. 

New Orleans is 4-0 Over this season. Entering Week 5, the Texans were the only other team that could claim a perfect Over mark this season and their game (vs. Jacksonville) stayed Under yday. Now that game has no real bearing on this one, obviously. However, it did illustrate that a team isn’t going to go Over (or Under) every game and sometimes all it takes is the “right” opponent. The Chargers were 3-0 Under through three weeks before last week’s wild 38-31 loss to Tampa Bay.

The Chargers, who are starting a rookie QB (Justin Herbert), still only average 20.8 PPG. They actually gained just 324 yards last week, but had a defensive score + two long Herbert TD passes. Not a lot of sustained drives from them. They have injuries in the backfield (at RB). The Saints’ defense has held all four opponents under 400 yards and the Lions gained just 281 on them last week. The Saints’ offense, which will again be w/o WR Michael Thomas, hasn’t looked as good as you might think despite scoring 30+ pts in 3 of 4 games. 10* Under Chargers/Saints

8* Over Braves/Dodgers (8:05 ET): If you don’t give up any runs, you can’t lose. The Braves have taken this old adage to heart with FOUR shutouts in their five postseason wins. Impressive as that achievement may be, some context must be provided. They faced the worst offensive team in the playoffs (Reds) and then the lineup that had been shut out more times (Miami) than any other this season. Now, in the NLCS, they’ll be matched up with the only team that has scored more runs than they have, that being the Dodgers. 

Los Angeles, like Atlanta, is also an unbeaten 5-0 this postseason. They’ve rolled through the Brewers and Padres, scoring 30 runs in the process. As alluded to above, these were the two highest scoring teams in baseball during the regular season. The Dodgers average 5.8 runs per game while the Braves aren’t far behind at 5.7. Interestingly, both clubs have exceeded their YTD runs per game average only twice each in the playoffs. While I don’t expect both teams to score 5+ runs in Game 1, I do think one will.

Game 1’s two starting pitchers (Max Fried and Walker Buehler) have combined for a 21-2 team start record this season and neither has dropped a decision. So something will have to give in that department. Expect one (or both) to have a bit of “shaky” outing tonight. Fried allowed 4 runs vs. Miami his last time out, which was the only Braves’ game to go Over this postseason. Buehler also lasted just 4 innings in his last start and had 4 walks. The Dodgers’ closer situation remains unsettled going into this series. 8* Over Braves/Dodgers

8* Tampa Bay (4:07 ET): The Rays are now 11-1 following an off-day this season after their 2-1 victory in Game 1. There won’t be many more of those this year (off days, that is) but TB has to like the position that they are in right now. Unless Houston has a decided edge in starting pitching, which they don’t here for Game 2, it’s going to be tough for me to like their chances in this LCS. The Rays’ bullpen prowess is simply too difficult to ignore. After the second batter of the game (Jose Altuve) homered last night, the Astros didn’t score again.

We have an all-righty starting pitching matchup for Game 2 with Lance McCullers (Houston) opposing Charlie Morton (TB). McCullers has not pitched well away from home this season. In seven starts away from home, he has a 7.57 ERA and 1.792 WHIP. The Astros are just 2-5 in those games. They did win McCullers’ lone LDS start, but note he allowed three home runs and five runs total in just four innings. Prior to that, the team had lost four straight McCullers’ starts.

9* Minnesota (8:25 ET):I know that Seattle has been a far more dominant team than they were last year when they went 11-5 SU and outscored opponents by only 7 points over the full regular season. They enter Week 5 at 4-0 SU w/ a point differential of +33. Them not regressing (as of yet) may have something to do with “letting Russ(ell Wilson) cook” or it’s simply a matter of continuity from last season. Whatever the reason, I’m not sure they keep up their level of strong play. Off their 1st win of the season, I think the Vikings are going to come out strong..

The Seahawks defense remains shaky as they are giving up 476.8 YPG, by far the most in the league. They were very fortunate to “only” allow 23 points last week as the Dolphins routinely settled for field goals. Total yards and first downs were relatively even in that game and it’s not like Miami is a great offensive team. But this Minnesota offense, led by the league’s leading rusher Dalvin Cook, has scored 30+ points against every opponent except the Colts (who have the league’s best defense.

Of Seattle’s last 26 games, 22 of them have been decided by one score. So there’s a strong likelihood this ends up as a “close game.” As mentioned earlier, the Vikings finally got into the win column last week at Houston. The week previous saw them lead the Titans by double digits, only to lose on a last second FG. This is a team with excellent red zone numbers, both offensively and defensively, and I think they’re going to put up plenty of points in this game. That makes them an attractive underdog in my eyes. 9* Minnesota

8* Tampa Bay (7:37 ET): This series is all about revenge for the Rays. Whether they get it remains up for debate, but they surely remember losing to the Astros in five games in LY’s LDS. Houston entered 2020 with a HUGE “bullseye” on its back due to the cheating scandal, yet so far no one has been able to knock them off this postseason.  Well, they did drop a game to Oakland, but they’re 5-1 overall in the playoffs. Tampa Bay is 5-2 as it needed five games to outlast the Yankees in the Division Round.

I was a tad bit surprised we didn’t see Blake Snell in Game 5 Friday night for the Rays. But that works out as he can now start Game 1 of the LCS. Snell, a former Cy Young winner, has an 8-5 TSR this season w/ a 3.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His lone start vs. the Yankees wasn’t that great. In fact, it was perhaps his worst of the year as he allowed 3 HR in a loss. But that was also just the second time all year he gave up more than three runs. Pitching on five days rest, I expect this southpaw to get the job done here before handing things over to the Rays’ tremendous bullen. 

It took Houston awhile, but they decided on Framber Valdez as the Game 1 starter. He’s looked great of late with a 1.77 ERA and 0.787 WHIP his L3 starts. But that’s also a relatively small “sample size” and he’d given up a total of 13 runs in the two starts before that stretch. He also allowed 2 HR’s his last time out. Even though TB had just one day off between series, they are 10-1 this season following an off-day. As long as Snell does his job (I think he will!), the Rays will win Game 1. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Indianapolis (4:25 ET): Cleveland has won three straight, scoring 30+ points in all three victories. That’s a pretty significant achievement for a franchise that has not started 3-1 since 2001. But some context should be provided here. The three teams that the Browns have defeated - Cincinnati, Washington & Dallas - are a combined 3-8-1 SU and the L2 weeks have seen the Browns be the beneficiary of a +8 turnover margin. They now go from facing the league’s worst defense (Dallas) to the best defense. This is a reality check for Cleveland. 

The Colts are 3-1 and in addition to having the league’s best defense (on a per play and per game basis), they have the league’s 4th best point differential. They probably should be 4-0 SU (have been favored in all 4 games) but blew a lead in Week 1, a game they outgained Jacksonville by over 200 yards. Since then, they’ve allowed just 29 points (total!) and an average of 234.7 yards per game (only 4.4 yards per play). I think the Colts deserve to be favored by AT LEAST a field goal in this one. 

Though Indy is a bit thin at linebacker right now, they get a HUGE break in that Cleveland’s league-leading rushing attack is w/o Nick Chubb. The Colts are #1 in the league at stopping the run, allowing just 77 YPG over land. Again, this is a big step up for Cleveland after facing two of the league’s worst teams (Cincinnati, Washington) and the league’s worst defense. Their defense gave up over 500 yards last week, not a good sign even though Philip Rivers isn’t Dak Prescott. The Browns are just 4-10 SU/4-9-1 ATS L14 vs. teams w/ a winning record and haven’t faced one since a 38-6 loss at Baltimore in Week 1. 10* Indianapolis

9* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Even with Ravens QB Lamar Jackson missing practice time this week, there was little line movement for this AFC North matchup. Can’t say I’m too surprised about that; all three Ravens wins this year have come by at least two touchdowns. But they were served a case of “humble pie” two weeks ago by Kansas City in a 34-20 loss where they were outgained 517-228. Coming off that, I faded them last week in Washington and sure enough a “ho-hum” effort resulted in me getting a ½ point cover! 

It’s a double digit spread again this week for Baltimore, only this time at home. It’s against a Cincinnati team that’s been surprisingly competitive. The Bengals’ two losses this year have come by a total of eight points and they tied Philadelphia on the road. Last week finally saw Zac Taylor’s team break into the win column as they rolled up 33 points and 500+ yards on Jacksonville. Rookie QB Joe Burrow has been as good as advertised thus far, throwing for 300+ yards in three consecutive games. 

While the Ravens have had success in the past facing rookie QB’s at home and have NEVER lost a game in which they were DD favorites, I expect this game to be close. Cincy has a history of playing Baltimore relatively close, covering five of the last seven meetings including three SU wins. Even last season, they only lost by six here in Baltimore. Ten of the Bengals’ last 16 losses have been one-score games. The Ravens haven’t looked good the L2 weeks and Jackson is surprisingly only 4-8 ATS as a home favorite. 9* Cincinnati

10* Dricus Du Plessis (9:05 ET): Du Plessis has more than just a cool-sounding name as he comes to the UFC with plenty of hype. Now his fellow South Africans have not always found success inside the Octagon, but he may be the one to buck that trend as he arrives with a 14-2 career record. I look for him to win this Middleweight (185 lb) fight over Markus Perez (12-3). 

Du Plessis has solid striking and good wrestling, which is the combo you look for in a fighter. Since 2015, he’s gone 10-1 with every win being a finish (either submission or TKO). This will not only be his 1st fight in the UFC, but it is also his 1st fight of 2020. He’s mainly fought for the KSW promotion over in Poland as well as Extreme Fighting Championship (EFC). Watch for his guillotine choke as that’s the manner four of his last seven victories have come by. 

Perez also likes to choke out his opponents, but he’s certainly a more one-dimensional fighter compared to Du Plessis. Perez does have experience in the Octagon as this will be his 6th fight for the UFC, but he’s gone just 2-3 thus far. He also has not yet fought in 2020 as he’s coming off a decision loss to Wellington Turman back in December. I’m not sure Du Plessis will finish Perez, but in the end he’ll get his hand raised in his UFC debut. 10* Dricus Du Plessis

8* Under Baudot/Aspinall (8:35 ET) - This is a heavyweight fight scheduled for three rounds. Don’t look for it to go very long. Tom Aspinall is a heavy favorite here and likely to end things quickly, however, the safer bet is to take the Under (1.5 rounds). That way we win no matter who finishes who. 

Aspinall is certainly an intriguing prospect in the Heavyweight Division. He’s got size, athleticism and most importantly, some serious knockout power. He took a few years off to try boxing, but since returning to the world of MMA he’s gone 3-0 with none of the fights lasting longer than 81 seconds! His UFC debut took place back in June and lasted just 45 seconds as he TKO’d Jake Collier. Aspinall’s penchant for short fights is nothing new. All eight of his professional victories have ended in Round 1! His two losses both ended in Round 2. 

Alan Boudot is a natural Light Heavyweight, so it will be interesting to see what his strategy is here against a larger opponent. He’s going to be a lot faster than most fighters Aspinall has faced previously. This is Baudot’s UFC debut and like Aspinall he has a history of quick fights. Six of his nine career bouts have ended in the 1st round. Durability and stamina is a legit question mark for both of these fighters and with the respective histories of such short fights, I don’t see any way this one makes it past the halfway point of Round 2. It’ll likely be over in less than five minutes. 8* Under Baudot/Aspinall

8* Clemson (7:30 ET): So this may seem like a lot of points to lay in a matchup between Top 10 teams, especially considering the fact underdog Miami is 3-0 ATS this year while favored Clemson is 0-3 ATS. But Clemson’s ATS mark certainly is in need of some context as the Tigers have had to lay 28 or more in every game thus far. I’ve played against them twice (at Wake Forest and vs Virginia), but now is the time to jump on board as October is typically the time when Dabo Swinney’s team REALLY starts to roll. Lay the points. 

I expect Clemson to be quite motivated for this game. That’s something you probably couldn’t say for any of the first three contests, yet the Tigers still won them all by at least 18 points. The closest margin came last week against Virginia and keep in mind Clemson gave up a late TD to make it seem closer than it actually was. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been asked to lay between 10.5 and 21 points. It is VERY rare to get them this low of a favorite at home. The last time they were -14 or less here was 2017!

Miami is likely feeling quite good about itself with its 3-0 start and QB D’Eriq King playing even better than anticipated. But the Hurricanes have been outscored 92-3 in the L2 meetings w/ Clemson. Since 2015, the Tigers have gone 29-15-1 ATS following the first weekend in October and averaged an awesome 40.2 PPG. Over half of its wins in those games have been by three touchdowns! It’s rare to say a 2 TD favorite is in a “buy low” spot but Clemson has covered six of its last seven in the month of October. 8* Clemson

9* Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Wildcats are 0-2, but there’s been some bad luck along the way + you’re talking about an SEC schedule. They actually outgained Auburn 384-324 in a 29-13 loss, but were -3 in turnovers, the most costly being an INT in the end zone late in the 1st half (totally changed the game). They also outgained Ole Miss last week 559-459, but missed the XP in OT and lost 42-41. That was a game they led by two touchdowns (at home) in the 2nd half. It’s time for UK to break through this week with a win.

The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward. It was an impressive way for Mike Leach to start his tenure in Starkville, but unfortunately (for him) that was followed with an outright loss to Arkansas (as 16.5-point home favorites) last week. That was the Hogs’ first SEC win since 2017 (snapped 20-game losing streak). The answer to “how good the Bulldogs are” probably lies somewhere between those two results. They aren’t as good as they looked vs. LSU nor are they as bad as last week’s result suggests. 

That this number has been bet down tells me that MSU is still getting too much credit for the upset of LSU. I don’t see Leach winning his first two SEC road games as a dog. Kentucky came into 2020 w/ high hopes for Mark Stoops’ 8th season in Lexington. The home team has won five straight in this particular SEC rivalry and covered the spread in the last six. There were some other ridiculous things that went against Kentucky last week (fumbled at goal line two plays after a player should have scored a TD - but was celebrating too early and got tackled!). A Miss State team that’s turned it over four times in both games is the opponent they need to get back on track. 9* Kentucky

8* Western Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Hilltoppers are 0-3 ATS, but at least they picked up a SU win last week. They won 20-17 at Middle Tennessee and while that was a battle of winless teams, WKU will take it. They’d previously fallen to Louisville and Liberty. I made the mistake of taking the points with them in that Louisville game (they lost by 14 as a 12.5-pt dog) and then Liberty was clearly a team not properly priced by the oddsmakers as they beat WKU outright, 30-24, as 14.5-point dogs. Now that the market has clearly shifted AGAINST the Hilltoppers, I feel that now is the time to back them again (1st time since L’ville game). Take the points. 

Marshall is 2-0 SU/ATS with an upset of Appalachian State under their belt. That upset occurred in their last game, but it was also three weeks ago as the Thundering Herd have since fallen victim to a COVID-19 cancellation (they were supposed to play Rice last weekend). It was the second time this year Marshall has had a game cancelled. I expect “rust” to be a bit of a factor Saturday night in Bowling Green and this Thundering Herd team has often struggled outside of Huntington. 

Prior to the start of the season, I would not have expected Marshall to be favored in this game, let alone by this many points. The Herd are just 2 for its last 9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and 6-13 ATS its L19 as a favorite, period. They are 1-4 ATS L5 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and 2-6 ATS when off B2B SU wins. Meanwhile, WKU is 16-6 ATS its L22 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 pts and 6-3 ATS L9 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Marshall passing game is still a question mark (QB Grant Wells was just 11 of 25 vs. App State). Despite losing each of the L3 years to Marshall (all by 7 pts or less), WKU is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this C-USA rivalry. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Notre Dame (7:30 ET): This spread should be closer to four touchdowns rather than three. In picking this one, it’s that simple for me as I’ll trust my own power rankings. Florida State is a complete mess right now having lost to Georgia Tech (as a 13-point home favorite) and Miami (52-10) and needing to come from behind to defeat FCS Jacksonville State. Because of COVID, Notre Dame has been off the L2 weeks. As a top five team, I expect them to be “ready to go” Saturday night in South Bend. Lay the points. 

This game marks the first time EVER that Florida State has been a double digit dog in back to back games vs. FBS opponents. They were +11.5 at Miami FL, an outrageous line in retrospect, and got totally humiliated in that one. It was 38-3 at halftime. The last five times the Seminoles have been DD dogs, not only have they lost, they’ve lost by an average of almost five touchdowns per game. Just to illustrate how far this one proud program has fallen, it was a DD dog just 10 times (in 497 games) from 1978-2017. This will now be the eighth time they’ve been a DD dog in the L34 games! Needless to say, 1st year HC Mike Norvell has his work cut out for him in Tallahassee. 

FSU was down 21-7 last week at home to Jacksonville State. A change was made at QB and that resulted in five straight TD drives. But that was against an FCS team. Notre Dame has won 20 straight in South Bend including 52-0 over South Florida three weeks ago. QB Ian Book is completing 62% of his passes while RB Williams has 174 yards rushing and WR Tremble has 100+ yds receiving. The ‘Noles are totally outclassed here and I love the fact this number has dipped below -21. 10* Notre Dame

8* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): UTEP is quite easily the worst 3-1 (SU) team in the country. Two of their three wins have come against FCS opposition (Stephen F Austin and Abilene Christian) and those wins were by a combined 14 points. The Miners’ most recent victory came at LA Monroe (31-6), who I happen to have ranked dead last among the 77 FBS teams that have played a game this season. UTEP actually came into that game as a 9.5-point underdog! The only other game they played was a 59-3 loss to Texas.

So it’s not a question of “IF” the Miners will lose in Ruston, LA this Saturday night, but by “how many.” Louisiana Tech figures to be in a foul mood after getting blown out by BYU last Friday, 45-14. But, in terms of the opponent, it’s a huge drop in class this week for the Bulldogs, who you may recall I had in their opener as they went to Southern Miss as prevailed 31-30 as a 7.5-point underdog. In between the Southern Miss and BYU games, La Tech beat Houston Baptist 66-38, which is what you “should” do to a FCS opponent. 

With the threat of Hurricane Delta, it’s almost a lock that it will rain during this game. Still, I expect a LA Tech team averaging 37 PPG to have no problems against a foe that had won a combined two games the previous two seasons. Bulldogs QB Luke Anthony is 2nd in the country with 10 TD passes and that’s despite the fact he didn’t even start the opener. Despite facing two FCS opponents, UTEP is still averaging less than 20 PPG! Another thing to watch for is third down. UTEP’s defense has been very lucky on 3rd down thus far while La Tech’s has been just the opposite. The conversion rates both defenses are allowing should start moving closer to the mean and that’s more good news for the favorite. Lay the points. 8* Louisiana Tech

9* Under NC State/Virginia (12:00 ET): These two ACC rivals have combined to play five games so far and all five have gone Over the total. Dating back to last season, each team is on an impressive run of Overs. The Over is 6-1 in NC State’s L7 games (3-0 this season) and it is 8-0 in Virginia’s L8 games (2-0 this season). But UVA’s point totals from the first two games are a little misleading as there has been a lot of “garbage time” scoring for a variety of reasons. I think this game bucks the trend. Take the Under. 

Virginia has scored just 17 points in the first three quarters of both games so far. Against Duke, they were the beneficiaries of SEVEN turnovers. Two of those seven came late in the game and were converted into touchdowns after excellent starting field position (one drive was just 10 yards). Last week vs. Clemson, they got a garbage time TD w/ 1:11 remaining, when trailing 41-17. They also scored right before the end of the first half. Not that I’m complaining mind you, as I had the Hoos +28 (in what was a wire to wire cover).

UVA QB Brennan Armstrong has done much better than I had expected in “replacing” do-everything Bryce Perkins. But I still think the Cavaliers’ scoring output is misleading. While the Hoos have won nine in a row in Charlottesville, I don’t necessarily expect them to roll here. If they do, it may be because of the defense. They’re allowing just 2.8 YPC so far and last week NC State could not run the ball effectively (2.1 YPC) despite upsetting Pitt on the road. This will be the highest O/U line for either team YTD and the L2 times the Under hit for the Wolfpack, the number was 58+ pts. This is the highest O/U line for Virginia in an ACC game in a LONG time. 9* Under NC State/Virginia

10* LA Lakers (9:05 ET): This is the 36th time in NBA Finals history that a team has been up 3 games to 1. The ONLY time a team facing that deficit came back and won the series was four years ago when LeBron James and Cleveland shocked Golden State. When the Finals are 3-1, the series has ended in five games over 50% of the time (18 of 35 chances) and that’s what I’m banking on here as the Lakers look to close out the Heat. It’s been a nice run for Miami, but the bottom line is that they have been behind by double digits in 6 of the last 10 games and never led in the final 20 minutes in Game 4. Lay the points.

The Heat looked to be “down and out” after losing the first two games of the series. Both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic were injured. The team trailed by as many as 32 in Game 1 and also trailed virtually the entire way in Game 2. In those first two games, Miami was ahead for only 10:44 out of a possible 96 minutes and most of that was the first quarter of Game 1. A resilient effort in Game 3, led by Jimmy Butler’s 40-point triple double, briefly cast some doubt. But that was quickly put to rest in Game 4 where the Lakers held the Heat to 96 pts on 42.7% shooting, despite Adebayo returning to the lineup. 

Miami did cover the spread in Game 4, thanks to Tyler Herro draining a 3-pointer with 1.1 seconds remaining. While it was the quintessential “back door cover,” I do recognize that the Heat were “in the money” most of the way. Still, they did again trail most of the way and that was in an “off shooting night” from the Lakers. It remains fairly obvious who the better team is here and I expect the Lakers to win their 17th NBA Championship (1st since 2010) Friday night and do so in convincing fashion. Their previous three series have all ended in five games and they’ve won every close out game by at least nine points. 10* LA Lakers

10* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Of the four division series, this is the only one to go the distance as the Yankees fought off elimination yday by beating the Rays 5-1 in Game 4. There was no debate over who would start Game 5 for NY as Gerrit Cole has been on a sensational run, including a win in Game 1 of this series. Tampa Bay looks to be going with Tyler Glasnow, who will be pitching on even less rest than Cole as he started Game 2. I took the Cole and the Yankees in Game 1 and will do the same here in Game 5. 

Over his L5 starts, Cole is a perfect 5-0 and has allowed just seven runs in 34 IP. He also has a 45-5 KW ratio. In those five games, the Yankees have outscored their opponents by a stunning 52-9 margin. Considering they’ve scored 9+ runs each of the L4 Cole starts and 23 runs total against the Rays the L4 games, Cole is likely to get more than an adequate amount of run support tonight. Not that he needs it given how well he’s pitched lately, but we’ll certainly take it. The Yankees have outscored the Rays 23-19 in the series.

Glasnow, who had 10 strikeouts in 5 innings, did lead TB to victory in Game 2. But that wasn’t against Cole. He still gave up four runs and two homers. There will be no benefit here of being handed an early 5-1 lead (as he was in Game 2). While Glasnow is likely to serve as an “opener,” eventually making way for Blake Snell, I’ll still “hitch my wagon” to Cole over whatever the Rays plan is on the mound. Note Glasnow couldn’t get it done opposite Cole LY in Game 5 of the ALDS (when Cole was w/ the Astros). The Yankees and Cole are simply the more proven commodity. 10* NY Yankees

10* Louisville (7:00 ET): Both of these teams opened their seasons with a win only to then drop two in a row. But that’s where the similarities end for ACC rivals Louisville and Georgia Tech. The Cardinals, who started the year ranked in the Top 25, played pretty sloppy against two very good teams (Miami and Pitt). Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets were flat out dominated in losses to UCF and Syracuse, the latter of which isn’t anywhere near the caliber of opponent L’ville has seen to this point. I thought this number was too low when it initially opened. Now I see an incredible value in the Cardinals laying a short number on the road. 

Louisville opened its season with a 35-21 win over Western Kentucky. That should have been an even bigger blowout, but WKU got two “gift” drives that began inside the Cardinals’ 5-yard line. I’m not too worried about the losses to Miami and Pitt as Miami is clearly a very good team and then Pitt was just a three-point loss on the road. Cardinals QB Malik Cunnigham struggled against two of the better defenses in the ACC and threw three interceptions against Pitt. But he should bounce back here against a Ga Tech defense that has given up 86 points in its last two games. RB Javian Hawkins is averaging more than 5.0 YPC and WR Tutu Atwell has 229 yards and three TDs. 

Georgia Tech is just in its second year transitioning away from the triple option offense they ran under Paul Johnson. This is a massive rebuild for HC Geoff Collins and while the Yellow Jackets opened this season w/ a 16-13 upset of Florida State, that win doesn’t look nearly as impressive as it did last month. QB Jeff Sims has already thrown 8 INTs and the offense has also been missing last year’s leading rusher, Jordan Mason. Louisville held Pitt under 4.0 YPC two weeks ago. Speaking of defense, after giving up 49 points and 600+ total yds to Central Florida, Ga Tech then allowed 37 pts to a Syracuse team that had scored only 16 pts in its first two games. They’ve covered just 3 of their L13 home games. 10* Louisville

10* Chicago (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Thursday night game had the Bucs favored by three. It was reopened at -6 and while I’m “kicking myself” for not getting my own bet in sooner, I still think there’s plenty of value here on the Bears. My own power rankings suggested this line should be TB -1. I get that Chicago hasn’t looked great offensively, but let us not forget Tampa Bay trailed the Chargers 24-7 in the first half last week and that was at home. The Bears’ defense is good enough to at least keep this one within a field goal. Take the points. 

So far, Chicago has played eight halves of football. Five of them haven’t been very good, but they’re still 3-1 SU. After leading a miracle comeback the previous week in Atlanta, QB Nick Foles made his starting debut for the Bears last week vs. Indianapolis and it didn’t go so well. But he was facing the top defense in the league there. I expect this game to go much better for Foles. It shouldn’t take much with a defense that is allowing just 20.3 PPG so far.

Tampa Bay hasn’t exactly faced a “murderer’s row” of QBs thus far. In fact, each of the L3 weeks has seen them face a team with a new starting QB this year: Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina, Jeff Driskel in Denver and Justin Herbert in LA. That made it pretty easy on the Bucs defense. Yes, Foles is in his first year with the Bears as well, but he’s a veteran. The Bucs are just 2-7 SU/ATS on Thursday Night Football and will be the classic case of a “public road favorite” in this one. Injuries are a much bigger factor for the Bucs right now than for the Bears as numerous skill position players have missed practice this week.  10* Chicago

10* Tulane (7:30 ET): It’s not very often that I would say a team getting a full TD on the road is better than it’s opponent, but that looks to be the case here. Tulane has a massive edge over Houston Thursday night in that they’ve already got three games under their belt while this will be the season opener for the home team (five games postponed due to COVID!). The last time we saw the Green Wave was two weeks ago and I had them in a 66-24 beatdown of Southern Miss (were only -3.5). They were obviously undervalued there and such is the case again this week.

Tulane was able to hang 66 on Southern Miss despite a change at QB and losing their starting RB (Tyjae Spears) to an ACL injury. That speaks to the depth of talent they have on that side of the ball. True freshman Michael Pratt came in against USM and accounted for 182 total yards and three touchdowns. Running back, thankfully, is the Green Wave’s deepest position on offense. BOTH backups - Cameron Carroll and Stephon Huderson - went over 100 yards against Southern Miss! Now you might attribute the fact that Tulane had 572 total yards of offense to the fact they were playing a bad team. But note Houston’s defense allowed 34.0 PPG last season as the team went 4-8 SU. 

Tulane should be coming into this game a perfect 3-0 SU, but they blew a 24-0 halftime lead at home and lost to Navy. Still, they’ve won twice on the road already and upset Houston last season 38-31 as a five-point home dog. Off their worst season in over a decade, Houston lost QB D’Eriq King (transferred to Miami) and Clayton Tune (who did start several games LY) is going to have to deal with a Tulane defense that has NFL talent, not to mention 11 sacks and is 3rd among American Conference teams in yards per game allowed. Take the points. 10* Tulane

10* Atlanta (2:08 ET): You can’t lose if you don’t give up any runs. That adage is simple enough, but it’s also easier said than done. However, the Braves are really taking it to heart. Now 4-0 in the postseason, three of Atlanta’s wins have come in shutout fashion. The latest was yesterday’s 2-0 triumph that puts them one win away from advancing to their first NLCS since 2001 and the days of Bobby Cox! I think it’s fair to say at this point that the Marlins just aren’t on the Braves level. Look for Atlanta to finish the sweep today. 

I went over Atlanta’s substantial edges on offense and in the bullpen in yday’s analysis. They obviously still ring true today. The Braves’ bullpen has allowed just ONE run in four playoff games and it was a rather meaningless one in the 8th inning of Game 1 of this series (when they were up 9-4). An offense that scored the second most runs in all of baseball during the regular season hardly even needed to show up yday, though it did slug two more HRs and now has five of those in the series. 

If there is one weakness with this Braves team, it is their starting pitching depth. In Game 3, for the first time this postseason, they’ll have to start someone that isn’t Max Fried or Ian Anderson. That “someone” is Kyle Wright, who had an inconsistent regular season and struggled twice vs. the Marlins. But Wright did close strong w/ B2B quality starts where he allowed just two runs and three hits in 13 IP. Miami’s Sixto Sanchez has better numbers than Wright, but he had a rough start vs. Atlanta late in the year (allowed 4 runs in 3 IP) and honestly Miami faces enough disadvantages here that Sanchez can’t overcome them alone. 10* Atlanta

9* Atlanta (2:08 ET): The Braves ran their postseason record to a perfect 3-0 yesterday w/ a 9-5 win over the Marlins in Game 1 of this best of five LDS. The win very much accentuated the strengths of this Atlanta ballclub and their advantages in this series. Trailing most of the game, their excellent bullpen kept them in it and then MLB’s 2nd highest scoring offense from the regular season with a 6-run 7th inning. Miami’s bullpen, which came in with a 5.35 ERA and 1.52 WHIP on the year, couldn’t get the job done. 

It feels like Game 1 was the Marlins’ “chance” to steal one here and they failed to do so, thanks to the aforementioned bullpen. You’ve got to remember that Miami’s regular season run differential (-41) was bottom-third in the league and easily the worst of any team in the playoffs. They also were shutout more times than any other team in baseball, which isn’t good when facing an offense of this caliber. Though they’ve been slightly more competitive this season (4-7), Miami’s head to head record vs. the Braves is just 8-22 L2 seasons and 13-36 L3 seasons. 

The starting pitching matchup for Game 2 will feature Ian Anderson for the Braves and Pablo Lopez for the Marlins. Both have struggled a bit this season facing the lineups they’ll see today. Lopez, who had a 6.39 ERA in three starts vs. Atlanta during the regular season, has never appeared in the postseason before. Anderson, who has allowed 5 runs in 8 ⅔ IP vs. Miami, looked great in his Rd 1 start vs. Cincinnati. He tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball vs. the Reds to improve to a 4-1 w/ a 1.82 ERA in all non-Miami starts this year. He’s allowed just six runs and 14 hits in those five starts. Even if you consider Lopez vs. Anderson to be a “wash,” Atlanta’s superiority at the plate and in the bullpen is too much for Miami to overcome. 9* Atlanta

10* Under Lakers/Heat (9:05 ET): Despite all the injuries, Miamii isn’t going to roll over in this series. They took Game 3 outright, as a 9.5-point dog, by a score of 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double, which included 40 points. Such an effort places Butler in some pretty rarefied air as it was only the third 40+ point triple double in Finals history. Bam Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4 (so he could play) while Goran Dragic is still doubtful. The Lakers are 3-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs, winning all of those games by at least six points. 

If you go back to my Game 1 analysis, there was a discussion of O/U results from the Conference Finals. For those that missed that, Overs ruled the day in the two series, going a combined 9-1-1. But so far, the Under is 2-1 in this series, including my correct call for Game 1. Granted, both Unders hit by the “skin of their teeth.” Game 1 stayed Under by three while Game 3 stayed Under by half a point. But a win is a win and I like the Under to hit again in Game 4. 

Miami has trailed by double digits in six of their last eight games. So I’m still a little skeptical of their chances of tying this series back up. But it’s a lot of points they’re getting. What I’m counting on is them NOT shooting better than 50% again as they have the L2 games. If you recall, their shooting declined throughout the Eastern Conference Finals. Look for the Lakers to “tighten the screws” defensively in this one as Butler won’t be going off again like he did in the last game. The Heat will get the job done defensively as well. 10* Under Lakers/Heat

10* Over Astros/A’s (4:37 ET): It’s starting to look as if the Astros team we’re getting here in the playoffs is more along the lines of what we’ve seen from them in years’ past, as opposed to the middling club we saw in the regular season. Some of that can be attributed to the regular season being a relatively “small” sample size where most of their top hitters slumped. But having gone 3-0 against a pair of division winners so far in the playoffs, including a 10-5 come from behind win yday, indicates to me that Houston’s regular season numbers may not be all that relevant moving forward.

Things were looking good early for Oakland in Game 1 as they jumped out to a 3-0 lead. But the bullpen, which has been so good this season, couldn’t hold on. The A’s burned through eight pitchers Monday and allowed 10 runs on 16 hits. On the bright side, the offense did make it three consecutive games w/ at least five runs. I do like the A’s chances today against Houston starter Framber Valdez, who gave up five runs in five innings when he pitched in this ballpark (Dodger Stadium) during the regular season. 

We probably need to talk more about the “neutral site” effect here in the LDS. This series is taking place in Dodger Stadium and as we saw yesterday - on a dry LA afternoon - the teams combined for six homers. Keep in mind the Dodgers hit the most HR’s in the league - by far - during the regular season. Weather conditions are expected to be similar today. Valdez, who struggled here on September 12th, allowed 2 HR in that aforementioned start. Oakland’s Game 2 starter Sean Manaea hasn’t started a game since 9/23 when he also allowed 2 HR’s Dodgers here in this park. Expect plenty more HR’s today and this one to go Over.  10* Over Astros/A’s

8* Over Marlins/Braves (2:08 ET): Given how few runs these NL East rivals allowed in the first round of the playoffs, you might think that an Over play for Game 1 of the LDS may seem a bit “crazy.” But keep in mind I won with the Under in last night’s Falcons-Packers game despite all the “evidence” pointing in the other direction. What MIami is likely to find out here is that not all lineups are as weak as the Cubs. The same holds true for Atlanta after they faced a historically bad Reds offense. Take the Over. 

Only the Dodgers scored more runs than the Braves in the regular season. Now Atlanta didn’t need many runs to oust Cincinnati in two games. That’s because they didn’t allow a single run! Game 1, a 13-inning affair, ended 1-0. Game 2 was a 5-0 shutout. That Game 2 output is more along the lines of what I am expecting today as the Braves come in averaging a solid 5.7 runs per game for the year. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara, who had little difficulty beating the Cubs, is going to be challenged more here by a lineup he somehow avoided the entire regular season. The Over is 16-6-5 for Atlanta after scoring 5+ runs their previous game.

The Reds lineup that the Braves saw in Round 1 was even more putrid than what the Marlins saw in Chicago. Cincinnati had a historically low batting average (for a playoff team) and scored the fewest runs by non-HR means in the reg season. Yet they still had their chances against Atlanta, especially in Game 1 when Max Fried (who starts again today for the Braves) was on the mound. The Reds were 1 for 12 w/ RISP in that game and left 13 men on base. Fried allowed six hits and has struggled in the past vs. Miami w/ a 5.13 ERA in six career outings. Neither of today’s starters will find things to be as easy as it was in the previous round. 8* Over Marlins/Braves

10* Under Falcons/Packers (8:50 ET): Given how this NFL season is going, I admit taking the Under in this particular matchup does seem risky. The two teams are a combined 6-0 Over so far and Atlanta has the worst defense in the league (most points per game allowed) while Green Bay is averaging the MOST PPG on offense. But with everyone likely to be on the Over tonight, I’m going contrarian on the total. This is the highest O/U line for any Green Bay game in the L35 years. Take the Under. 

This will also likely close as the highest O/U line for any NFL game in the L2 seasons. Green Bay has scored at least 37 points in every game so far, a remarkable yet unsustainable achievement. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play! No team in NFL history had ever opened 3-0 SU while scoring 35+ points every game and never turning the ball over. The Packers are the first. But they have trailed in all three games. Despite starting a different O-line combination in every game, Aaron Rodgers has been sacked only twice. I just can’t see this continuing.

Atlanta has gone Under in eight consecutive primetime games, so there is that. Both teams are banged up at the receiver position as Davante Adams is questionable and Alan Lazard out for Green Bay while both Falcons starting WRs (Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley) are listed as questionable. Those would be significant absences and obviously work to the favor of the Under as neither team has a lot of depth at WR. It won’t be easy, but look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Falcons/Packers

9* NY Yankees (8:05 ET): An outstanding starting pitching matchup between two hurlers that looked great in the last round, not to mention their L4 starts respectively, headlines Game 1 of this ALDS matchup between the Yankees (who go w/ Gerrit Cole) and the Rays (who go w/ Blake Snell). Tampa Bay had the head to head edge in the regular season, winning 8 of 10 against New York, but it’s the team wearing pinstripes that’s favored to open this series and we agree with that. It’s difficult to imagine the Rays continuing to be that successful against a team like the Yankees. 

Injuries were a big reason why the Yankees were only 2-8 against Tampa Bay in the regular season. Aaron Judge missed six of the games, Giancarlo Stanton missed seven and DJ LeMahieu missed three. But they’re all back now and we saw what the Yankees just did to Cleveland, putting up 22 runs in two games against what was - statistically - the best rotation in all of baseball. While I don’t see NY being as successful tonight against Snell, I do think they’ll score enough to win here. 

Cole has allowed just four runs in his last four starts. The same is true for Snell, but Cole has won all four of his (3-1 TSR for Snell) and thrown six more innings. Incredibly, Cole’s last four starts have seen the Yankees outscore the opposition by a combined score of 43-6! Cole has a lower ERA and WHIP than Snell over the course of the season. Now fully healthy, I expect the Yanks to gain a measure of revenge for that poor regular season mark against the Rays tonight in Game 1. 9* NY Yankees

10* Under Yankees/Rays (8:05 ET): Runs were pretty scarce throughout the 1st round of the MLB playoffs, but not for the Yankees, who put up 22 in two games at Cleveland. That was pretty shocking. Not only because the Indians had (statistically) the best starting rotation in MLB during the regular season, but also because of the fact the Yankees had the largest home vs. road split (when it comes to scoring runs) of any non-Rockies team in MLB history! There won’t be any “true” road games for the Yankees any more (this series is being played in San Diego), but it’s still not Yankee Stadium. Therefore, I’m on the Under in Game 1. 

We’ve got an outstanding pitching matchup tonight with Gerrit Cole going against Blake Snell. Cole was 7-3 in the regular season for NY (w/ a 2.84 ERA), then gave up only two runs to Cleveland in seven innings. He’s 4-0 his L4 starts having allowed only four runs in 28 IP! He’s allowed three runs or less in all but two starts in 2020 and 2 ER or fewer in all but four starts. I expect him to pitch very well again tonight. 

Blake Snell has also been on fire for the Rays. He too is off an outstanding four start stretch while looking dominant in the first round. His start vs. Toronto saw him go 5 ⅔ and allow just one hit (zero runs). Over his L4 starts, the last three of which have all stayed Under, Snell has allowed just four runs in 22 IP and three of those came in one start. Unlike Cleveland’s pitching, look for Snell to take advantage of the Yankees dramatic home vs. road scoring split. For the record, NY averages 4.6 runs per game on the road vs. 6.3 at home. It may not be Tropicana Field, but this is a road game. 10* Under Yankees/Rays

10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): Though Philadelphia is winless SU (0-2-1) and ATS (0-3), this line may seem a bit curious to some. San Francisco is as banged up as any team in the league right now, yet still laying a touchdown in primetime against a playoff team from a year ago. I urge you not to fall for the trap of taking the Eagles in this one, for they are simply a bad football team right now. Furthermore, the 49ers are getting healthier at wideout and backup QB Nick Mullens isn’t that much of a drop off from Jimmy Garoppolo. My own power rankings suggest this number is far too low! Lay it! 

This is the second straight year that the Eagles have opened 0-3 ATS. Just like last season, they’ve been favored to win each of the first three games this year. Yet, they are 0-2-1 SU after an embarrassing tie with the Bengals last week. Since jumping out to a 17-0 lead on Washington in Week 1, Philly has been outscored 87-42 over the last 10+ quarters. QB Carson Wentz has not looked good at all as he has the lowest passer rating in the league and committed seven turnovers. Making matters worse, the team was down to one healthy WR at practice on Thursday. Both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey have been ruled out for this game. The San Francisco defense is allowing just 187.3 pass yards per game so far. Don’t look for any kind of turnaround from Wentz here. 

When you’re dealing with as many injuries as the 49ers are, it helps to play the Jets and Giants. They crushed those two teams - 31-13 and 36-9 respectively - and now own the league’s #1 overall point differential! While the Jets & Giants may be the two worst teams in the league right now, the Eagles aren’t too far behind. Unlike Philly, the Niners are getting healthier at WR as both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are expected back here. Mullens threw for 343 yards LW w/o them and has 2,620 passing yds in nine career starts. Look for the home team to win big Sunday night. 10* San Francisco

10* Lyon (3:00 ET): This battle of Olympique rivals has me quite intrigued. Despite no other European competition to worry about, Lyon has struggled with domestic foes. Since opening with an impressive 4-1 win over Dijon, Les Gones has only been able to manage three draws and a loss. Considering the firepower, they need to be better if they wish to return to the top four and Champions League qualification. 

Marseille has also cooled off recently. They began the season with two victories, one of them a stunner against PSG but are just 0-2-1 since and like Lyon played to a 1-1 draw last week. But their draw very much could have been a loss as they did not get the equalizer until the 95th minute, a bit of remarkable good fortune that can’t be counted on regularly. Also consider they were facing a struggling Metz side in that one and the lone goal was just the team’s third in the last four games. 

Marseille hasn’t won here in Lyon since 2007-08, which is a long stretch of losing, and they dropped four of the past five Ligue 1 tilts to their rivals as well. This has all the makings of a “get well” game for Lyon, who has the better goal differential despite taking fewer points thus far. 10* Lyon

8* Over Cardinals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, the play on the field has largely been defined by Overs, which are 29-19 this season, tying the highest % of Overs through the first three weeks in the last 35 seasons! Furthermore, the average O/U line in the NFL this week is right around 50, which would be an all-time record. It is likely that this week will end up having the highest number of games w/ a total of 50+ in league history. This Arizona-Carolina clash is one of eight currently w/ a total of 50 points or higher. 

Despite all the Overs we’re seeing, someone forgot to “send the memo” to Arizona, who is one of only two teams in the league (Chargers are the other) not to have a single game go Over to this point. It’s not like QB Kyler Murray and company aren’t scoring. They’ve averaged 25.7 PPG and more than 400 YPG. However, turnovers really hurt them in LW’s surprise 26-23 home loss to Detroit. Two of Murray’s three INTs were in Lions territory. We know the Cardinals want to “play fast” and they shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball against the defense they face this week, provided they take care of it.

Carolina has been a bit more competitive than expected this year. They are off their first win, 21-16 over the Chargers. But don’t go confusing the Panthers’ defensive effort from last week as a “good one.” They still allowed over 400+ yards, most of it coming through the air from a QB (Justin Herbert) that was making only his 2nd pro start. The first two games saw the Panthers allow 65 total points. The Over had been 7-1 in Carolina’s L8 games, dating back to LY, prior to last week. The Over has hit the last four times these teams have played including a 38-20 Carolina win last season. Arizona WR DeAndre Hopkins is a game-time decision here, but on the flip-side their secondary is missing both starting safeties. 8* Over Cardinals/Panthers

8* Miami (1:00 ET): This might seem like an “ugly” one, but despite being 3-0 SU/ATS, Seattle has the worst defensive numbers in the league right now. They are giving up a league-high 431 YPG passing and have allowed over 500 yards total in two of the three games. They have actually been outgained in all three games! All that has largely been overlooked due to the MVP-level of QB Russell Wilson, but eventually the poor defensive play is bound to catch up to the Seahawks. This was a lucky team last year (winning 11 games despite only a +7 point differential) and 21 of their L25 games have been decided by one score! 

It’s not likely we’ll see the Seahawks defense start to improve this week either. All-Pro safety Jamal Adams is out this week after a groin tear last week vs. Dallas. Three other members of the secondary are currently banged up and LB Jordyn Brooks, a rookie, is also likely to miss this game. In addition to giving up the most passing yards per game in the league through three weeks, Seattle is also allowing the most yards per attempt and completion. They are just vulnerable through the air and I look for savvy Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to take advantage. 

Fitzpatrick should also look to hand the ball off some in this game. Rookie RB Myles Gaskin is averaging 4.6 yards per touch. The Miami offensive line is also improved in pass protection, having permitted only five sacks to this point. After losing by 10 at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins have taken undefeated Buffalo to the wire and then blew out Jacksonville 31-13 last Thursday. They’ve had 10 days to prepare for Seattle while the Seahawks are making the longest road trip (in terms of miles) possible in the league this week. 8* Miami

8* Washington (1:00 ET): If the Dolphins play is considered “ugly,” this is one where you’ll have to straight “hold your nose!” But you need not worry that I’ve lost my mind, rather this is a lot of points we’re getting against a Ravens team in a bad situation. They just got embarrassed Monday night by the Chiefs, getting outgained 517-228 in a 34-20 loss. It’s a short week to get over that and I think the loss will have a “carry over” type effect as they are now faced with the prospect of laying two touchdowns on the road. Take the points. 

Washington also lost 34-20 last week, albeit to a Cleveland team that Baltimore had previously blown out by 38-6. But don’t be fooled by Washington’s score from last week. They were basically dead even in total yardage and even led going into the 4th quarter. The problem was that they turned the ball over five times. Only one of the Browns’ six scoring drives DIDN’T start in opposing territory! 

It’s not often that Dwayne Haskins throws for more yards in a game than Lamar Jackson, but it happened last week. Jackson threw for just 97 yards in an awful performance. Yes, he and the Ravens are likely to bounce back with a win here. But it won’t be by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for. I know some key pieces are out for Washington, including DE Chase Young and maybe WR Terry McLaurin, but at home I expect them to keep it closer than expected. 8* Washington

9* Under Saints/Lions (1:00 ET): This may seem like a risky bet given it involves the Saints, who have gone Over in all three games so far. But I have a bit of a feeling that this week may turn into a “tipping point” of sorts with NFL totals as the record-setting number of Overs (now 30-19-1 through Thursday) has resulted in a record-setting average O/U line for Week 4. Half of today’s games have totals in the 50’s, including this one, which is one of the higher numbers of the week. I’m going Under on this one.

New Orleans won’t have WR Michael Thomas in the lineup Sunday and that’s key because right now the Saints are LAST in the league with only 283 yards from receivers. TE Jared Cook will also be out. The lack of a downfield passing game is a big reason why New Orleans has dropped consecutive games since 2017. Even when the Saints scored 34 points in the season-opening win over TB, that was misleading. They had a pick-six and were set up on short fields by several other Bucs’ turnovers. The Under is 9-4 the Saints’ L13 October games.

Detroit is off its first win of the year (26-23 at Arizona), but the offense has struggled to move the ball the L2 weeks, averaging just over 300 YPG. They don’t run the ball very effectively and the Saints’ defense is very good at stopping the run. Save for the 4Q vs. Chicago and the Green Bay game, the Lions defense has played pretty well this year. They have led in all three games, so I don’t see them letting this one get out of hand. I know these teams have a history of high-scoring games against one another, but this one bucks the trend. 9* Under Saints/Lions

8* Rennes (11:00 AM ET): Given where these two sides are at in the table, this is a shockingly low price. The early Ligue 1 leaders Rennes have taken 13 of a possible 15 points thus far and will be looking for a 5th straight victory on Sunday. Meanwhile, their opponents have lost four in a row (longest losing streak in Ligue 1) while managing just one goal and that has them 19th (second to last) overall. Don’t overthink this one. 

Rennes was expected to be tested last week by Saint-Etienne, but instead they delivered a convincing 3-0 win to move themselves to the top of the table. This is a critical stretch for Les Rouge et Noir as not only are they expected to win here, but they’ll be favored in the three Ligue 1 matches following the international break as well. That means they could open up a sizable gap in the table before heading to PSG for a November showdown. Don’t look for Rennes to overlook their opponents here though as they’ve actually lost four straight times to Reims including a pair of 1-0 decisions last season. 

Like Rennes, Reims opened this campaign with a draw. Since then, things have obviously gone much differently. They’ve been kept clean in three of the previous four matches, including a 2-0 loss to PSG last weekend. This side made history last season by qualifying for European competition for the 1st time in 57 years. However, they’ve struggled across all competitions thus far, never scoring more than once in each of the L6 fixtures. Facing an opponent that is fueled by revenge and tied for the Ligue 1 lead in goals scored, Reims has little chance here. 8* Rennes

10* Germaine de Randamie (11:30 ET): This is a three-round fight scheduled at women’s bantamweight. It pits Germaine de Randamie (9-4) against Julianna Pena (9-3). Stylistically, this is a very interesting fight as de Randamie is the best technical striker you’ll find on the entire fight card Saturday night. Pena is someone who spends an abnormal amount of her time fighting on the mat. Something will have to give here and I believe it’ll be de Randamie that ultimately gets her hand raised.

de Randamie is the former featherweight champion. She never lost that title due as she vacated it, rather than facing Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino, whom she suspected was using steroids. She has fought only three times since vacating the title, winning two and then losing to Amanda Nunes (by decision) back in December. One of those two victories was a 16 second TKO of Aspen Ladd. Nunes, arguably the greatest women’s fighter ever and now the reigning champ in both the bantamweight & featherweight divisions, is the only person to defeat de Randamie since 2011 (did so twice). De Randamie had won six in a row before the 2nd loss to Nunes.

The key here for de Randamie is to keep the fight standing. If she does, it should be an easy victory. Pena is 5-1 in her L6 fights, but has fought only one time since 2017 (due to pregnancy) and that was a Jan 2019 decision victory over Nicco Montano (which took place on the undercard of de Randamie-Ladd). A big eye-opener from the Montano fight is that Pena did NOT dominate on the mat. I don’t think she’ll be able to get this fight down on the ground very often and that spells doom for the “Venezuelan Vixen.” 10* Germaine de Randamie

6* Over Townsend/Todorovic (10:40 ET): This is a middleweight fight, scheduled for three rounds. While it may not go the distance, it doesn’t have to as all the oddsmakers are calling for is a fight that makes it halfway through Round 2. I think it’ll easily get to that point as I’m on the Over 1.5 rounds here.

The undefeated Dusko Todorovic is 9-0 as he’s set to make his “official” UFC debut Saturday night. He had to withdraw back in July when he was scheduled to fight John Phillips. Replacement Khamzat Chimaev certainly made the most of the opportunity Todorovic afforded him there. Todorovic’s last official fight was part of Dana White’s Contenders Series, 14 months ago as he outlasted Teddy Ash by decision. That’s his only fight since 2018. With it being his UFC debut off such a long layoff, expect a cautious start from the Serbian. 

Dequan Townsend is 21-11 in his career and this will be his 4th fight for the UFC. Interestingly enough, it will be his 1st UFC fight where he is NOT a replacement for someone else! To this point, he’s been unsuccessful in the UFC (0-3) so with his spot in the promotion likely on the line here I don’t expect him to throw “caution to the wind” either. Townsend doesn’t go down easy as only two of those 11 losses have been by stoppage (nine via decision). All three UFC fights have made it to Rd 3 and two were decisions. 6* Over Townsend/Todorovic

10* Virginia (8:00 ET): Clemson has won its two games so far by a combined score of 86-13 (37-13 over Wake Forest and 49-0 over The Citadel), yet is actually 0-2 ATS as they faced massive spreads in both contests (-34.5, -50.5). They are once again massive favorites this week as they face a Virginia team they infamously drubbed in LY’s ACC Championship Game, 62-17. It’s not just Clemson, but all favorites of this size have struggled to cover this NCAAF season and UVA proved itself to be formidable enough last week against Duke. Take the points in this one. 

So far, all NCAAF favorites of 28 or more points this season are just 1-5 ATS including the two Clemson non-covers. We faded the Tigers in their first game as they allowed Wake Forest in through the backdoor. The reason Clemson failed to cover last week is that they took their starters out, including QB Trevor Lawrence, in the second quarter. This week is less than an ideal spot though as the Tigers have a huge, potential Top 10 showdown with Miami on deck. Don’t expect them to “open the playbook” too much against a team they easily beat last year. They’ll be saving some stuff for Miami. 

I was impressed with Virginia being able to hang 38 on Duke last week. That was the Cavaliers season opener. While forcing seven turnovers certainly helped, QB Brennan Armstrong (24-45, 269 yards) looked good as did WR Lavel Davis Jr (101 yds). These huge spreads figure to be an issue for Clemson all season (well, maybe not next week). Since it was an unusual offseason and the season is still young, don’t expect the Tigers to operate at peak performance quite yet. Virginia isn’t likely to pull the upset, but will take this game very seriously and keep it close enough to where they easily cover the spread. 10* Virginia

9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe (7:00 ET): These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this year. Furthermore, going back to last season, both are 4-0 Under the L4 games. But this Sun Belt matchup is a bit unique this week in that it feels quite conducive to an Over. Louisiana Monroe’s defense is obviously horrible (35.3 PPG allowed), especially against the run, which is Georgia Southern’s specialty. After dealing with some serious coronavirus issues in the early going, Ga Southern is now as healthy as they’ve been. 

LA Monroe has a legit claim to being the worst team in the entire country right now. The L2 wks have seen them lose to Texas State and UTEP (both of whom are also in that “worst team discussion”) by 21 and 25 points - at home. They also have a 37-7 loss to Army, which is notable because of the similarities between the Army and Ga Southern offenses. The Warhawks are allowing 263 YPG on the ground at 5.3 yards per carry, and they’ve already allowed 11 rushing TDs. Ga Southern has 476 yds on the ground in two games and should move the ball at will tonight. 

While Ga Southern figures to do most of the “heavy lifting” scoring-wise in this contest, we’ll also need La Monroe to score a couple touchdowns as well. They’ve scored just 30 points in three games thus far, but were a stunning 0 for 11 on third down vs. UTEP last week. Fortunately for the Warhawks, the Ga Southern defense is allowing opponents to convert on 46% of third down opportunities. Also QB Colby Suits is completing two-thirds of his pass attempts so far. Look for this to be BOTH teams’ highest-scoring game to date. 9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe

9* Charlotte (4:00 ET): Florida Atlantic has yet to play a game this season as previously scheduled dates with Ga Southern and USF had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. I’ve been itching to play against the Owls here in 2020 as this is a team ripe for regression after LY’s school record 11 wins. Lane Kiffin bolted the program for Ole Miss and his replacement, Willie Taggart, is off a somewhat disastrous stint at Florida State. I don’t like the idea of this team laying points to a conference foe in its season opener. 

Charlotte made a bowl for the 1st time last year and went 7-6 SU for HC Will Healy. Their last two games have also been called off due to COVID, though it turned out Georgia State was a false positive. Unlike FAU, the 49ers have played a game and it was against Appalachian State. Despite being outgained fairly significantly, the 49ers still managed to cover the 17-point spread as they only lost 35-20. I see the offensive attack doing a lot better here as FAU lost its four top tacklers from a season ago. Charlotte does return its starting QB from last season, Chris Reynolds. This is an offense that led C-USA in rushing LY. 

All signs point down for FAU in 2020 as they forced 33 takeaways last year (most in the country), which is a number they can’t possibly repeat and they lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Since these teams became conference rivals, the road team is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS. I had FAU last year as they won 45-27 (as 1.5-point underdogs!) but this is a far less talented team this year. Charlotte QB Reynolds actually got hurt in the opener, but all the time off allowed him to heal and now he’s expected to start. Take the points! 9* Charlotte

8* Texas A&M (3:30 ET): This is a lot of points to be getting in a matchup of what (we were told) would be the top two teams in the SEC West this season. Obviously Alabama is #1. Texas A&M, expected to be this year’s top challenger, had a shaky first game vs. Vanderbilt. The Aggies could only manage a 17-12 win as 31.5-point home favorites. But it’s a much different pointspread this week and “the great equalizer” got Bama last week as they got backdoored by Missouri. I expect A&M to “show up” big time here.

I think the Aggies’ closer than expected call last week can be attributed to numerous factors. One, it was the first game of the season. Two, there was an obvious “look ahead” to this game. Three, A&M fumbled five times and lost three. Despite the game being “too close for comfort,” the Aggies never trailed and the defense did its job. Also, RB Isaiah Spiller ran for 117 yards on just eight attempts. Everyone is seemingly counting them out this week, but that seems like an overreaction based on the preseason ranking. 

A&M is an experienced team with 17 starters back from LY including QB Kellen Mond, who did have a subpar game last week. I expect him to play a lot better here, even though he’s up against the #2 team in the country. This is a game they’ve been pointing to in College Station all throughout the summer and I can’t see Jimbo Fisher’s team getting blown out. Alabama is just 3-7 ATS its L10 SEC games while Texas A&M has covered 10 of 12 after allowing 20 pts or less in their previous game. 8* Texas A&M

10* Miami (9:05 ET): The Heat were a trendy pick in Game 1 (+4.5) and early on things were looking great. They raced out to a 25-12 advantage with four minutes left in the 1st quarter. From that point forward though, it was a Lakers “avalanche” as the Purple & Gold seized the lead by the end of the 1Q and outscored Miami 104-73 the rest of the way. Adding injury to insult, Miami will very likely be without both Bam Adebayo (shoulder) and Goran Dragic (foot) in Game 2 (both listed as doubtful). What a way to start the Finals! 

Given the Game 1 result and the injury news, you would naturally expect the line to jump for Game 2. It has, by several points. I think it’s a “classic overreaction” that the public will fall for. While both Adebayo and Dragic are key contributors, the Heat have largely been getting it done “by committee” this postseason, which has seen them go 12-4 SU & ATS. Game 1 was just the third time they were beaten in regulation and they’ve yet to drop B2B games. They are a perfect 3-0 ATS off those previous three defeats.

Jimmy Butler (who is dealing with an ankle injury himself) and Tyler Herro are still here and can carry the load offensively. Where the Heat will need to improve is at the defensive end as they allowed the Lakers to shoot at a 56% clip in the 1st half of Game 1 and 39.5% overall from 3-point range. I do not see those numbers repeating themselves here. This marks the 1st time Miami has been trailed in a series thus far and they are 10-3 SU/8-4-1 ATS off a DD loss this season. They are being undervalued for Game 2 and you should take the points. 10* Miami

8* Under Heat/Lakers (9:05 ET): With injuries mounting, the only chance for the Heat in Game 2 is to crank up the defense. Fortunately, they are more than capable of doing just that. After getting blitzed by a red hot Lakers’ shooting spree in the 1H of Game 1, Miami did settle down on the defensive end after halftime. It was “too little, too late” though after the Lakers made 56% of their FG attempts in that first half. The game still stayed Under though and with the Lakers’ shooting projected to decline, Game 2 should as well.

In my analysis for Game 1, I pointed out the fact that the Over was a combined 9-1-1 in the two Conference Finals series. The one Under (in LAL-DEN Game 2) cashed by a single point. That clearly had an effect on the Game 1 total for this series, which I said was “too high.” Well, it opened right at the same number for Game 2. We’ve already seen it “trickle down” some (sign of sharp money?), but it’s still too high for all the reasons stated prior to Game 1. These are two solid defensive teams!

The Lakers ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency during the regular season. I said Miami wouldn’t come close to matching it’s 56.5% shooting from Game 6 vs. Boston and they didn’t even come close (42.7%). You’ll recall that the Heat’s shooting started to decline throughout the Eastern Conference Finals, prior to the close out game. Now they are dealing with numerous key injuries. The Lakers aren’t going to shoot as well in Game 2 as they did in Game 1 and in fact the Under is now 16-7 in the Lakers’ L23 games off a SU win. 8* Under Heat/Lakers

10* Under La Tech/BYU (9:00 ET): It’s only two games in, but BYU has blown past the oddsmakers’ expectations thus far. The Cougars, now ranked #22 in the country, have beaten Navy 55-3 (were -1) and Troy 48-7 (were -14.5). In two games they've exceeded the pointspread by 77 points. Since 1978, no team has exceeded the pointspread by more than 85 points in the first three games. Predictably, BYU now finds itself a big favorite for Week 3 as they welcome fellow unbeaten Louisiana Tech to Provo.

Louisiana Tech was a nice winner for us two weeks ago. In their season opener, the Bulldogs went to Hattiesburg and upset favored Southern Miss 31-30 w/ a last minute TD. It was far easier last week against FCS Houston Baptist, whom they defeated 66-38 while rolling up 542 total yards, including 182 on the ground. But it won’t be that easy to move the ball this week. BYU has allowed only 10 points this season and an average of just 165 YPG. Don’t look for the team from Ruston to top 30 points in this one.

Now La Tech slowing down this BYU offense may be more of a challenge. Brigham Young has gone over 600 yards in both games and has scored over 100 points! But that sort of production simply can’t continue. BYU had 19 days off between the Navy and Troy games, so let’s see how they perform on a short week for the 1st time. This O/U line has moved considerably and while both La Tech games so far have gone Over, the Under is 10-3 the Bulldogs L13 road games. The Under is 20-8 in BYU’s L28 Friday games. 10* Under La Tech/BYU

***This play was originally for Thursday. With the rain out, I've simply reposted for Friday. The pitching matchup remains the same and I still like the Cubs!

7* Chi Cubs (2:05 ET): The Miami Marlins have NEVER lost a postseason series, which has to be a very frustrating fact to all the long-suffering franchises in the sport. Keep in mind the Cubs have won just ONE World Series (2016) in the past 112 years! Prior to this season, Miami had made the playoffs just two times in its entire existence (1997, 2003) and both times it won the World Series! The Marlins picked up a surprise win here at Wrigley yday, 5-1, scoring all five runs in one inning. I look for the Cubs to draw even Thursday. 

What you have to keep in mind about this Marlins team is that it was outscored by 41 runs during the regular season. That’s an atrocious run differential for a playoff team and was easily the worst of the 16 teams that made it. Also, no team was shut out more times this season than were the Marlins. A rather undisciplined team at the plate, Miami appeared on its way to getting blanked again yesterday. But they “broke loose” for the one big inning and that’s all they needed. Not all the news from yday was good, however, as Starling Marte left with an apparent broken hand in the 9th inning (HBP). 

Kyle Hendricks pitched well for the Cubs in Game 1, but was left in the game too long. I like Game 2 starter Yu Darvish to carry the team as he had an exceptional regular season, turning in a 2.13 ERA and 0.961 WHIP. Darvish allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his 12 starts and was very sharp his last time out, blanking the White Sox for seven innings. Provided the Cubs scored at least one run, Darvish had a 9-1 TSR this year (two losses were when team was shutout). Miami’s Sixto Sanchez faltered a bit down the stretch, giving up a combined nine runs in his L2 starts while lasting only seven innings. The Cubs are 6-1 this season as a home favorite of -175 or higher and 38-13 in that range the L3 seasons. 7* Chi Cubs

6* LA Dodgers (10:05 ET): As we saw in Game 1, if Milwaukee falls behind the Dodgers, they have almost no chance of catching up. The only shot the Brew Crew has to pull an improbable upset in this series is to get the lead early and turn it over to the bullpen. Problem is, they are at a severe disadvantage in the starting pitching department and the Dodgers are just too talented. After LA took Game 1 by a score of 4-2, there’s no need to overthink this one. I look for the Dodgers to sweep and move on to the next round. 

The big story for Game 2 will be Clayton Kershaw’s lack of postseason success. His career numbers in the playoffs aren’t good (at least by his standard), but I think too much is being made of that right now. In the regular season, Kershaw had an 8-2 team start record to go along with a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Not that this hasn’t been the case before, but Kershaw is being backed by the vastly superior ballclub here. The Dodgers are 44-17 this year with a run differential of +138. They are easily MLB’s best team.

I’m looking past Kershaw’s postseason past simply because the Dodgers are the vastly superior ballclub. Last night, they knocked out Brent Suter by drawing five walks and scoring three runs in an inning and two-thirds. Suter had walked only five batters all year. So I don’t think Game 2 starter Brandon Woodruff’s numbers are of much use here either. Milwaukee entered this series without the services of its best starter and best reliever, really putting them behind the 8-ball from the start. This is a team that had a negative run differential in the regular season. 6* LA Dodgers

8* Denver (8:20 ET): This line opened up with Denver as the favorite, but quickly flipped upon the announcement that QB Brett Rypien would start for the Broncos. Rypien will already be the third different starting QB for the Broncos this season. While this seems dubious to say the least, I don’t think the line move towards the Jets is justified. Is Rypien really 4-5 points WORSE than last week’s starter Jeff Driskel? I don’t think so. Congrats if you grabbed the Jets when they were +3 earlier in the week, but betting on them to win is a different matter. I’m taking the points Thursday night.

Denver wouldn’t be worth a look here normally, but facing the Jets on a Thursday night certainly opens the door. You have to remember that the Flyboys are also 0-3 SU this season, not to mention 0-3 ATS. The Broncos covered the number the first two weeks against a pair of teams that are a combined 6-0 SU this season (Tennessee and Pittsburgh). Things got out of hand quickly last week vs. Tampa Bay with them down 23-3 in the first half. An earlier turnover set the tone. Hopefully, Rypien can take care of the football, because if he can, the Jets are an easy victim. 

The Broncos aren’t the only team coming into Thursday night banged up. The Jets have a long injury list themselves, mostly on the offensive side of the ball. RB Le’Veon Bell as well as two receivers, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims, are out. Keep in mind the Jets offense ranks last or second to last in almost every statistical category. They’ve lost all three of their games by double digits, so this is very much a fade against a team that shouldn’t be favored over anybody right now. QB Sam Darnold threw TWO ‘pick-sixes’ last week at Indianapolis. Again, I disagree with the line move. 8* Denver

10* Under Heat/Lakers (9:05 ET): LeBron James has advanced to his 10th NBA Finals and will face one of the two franchises he previously led to a championship! Miami making it this far has definitely raised some eyebrows, but they have enjoyed an incredible postseason where they’ve only been beaten twice in regulation (both times by Boston). They’ve yet to trail in any series and are 12-3 SU/ATS in all playoff games. However, it should be pointed out they trailed by double digits in 4 of the 6 games vs. the Celtics.

The Lakers are also 12-3 SU in the playoffs, but just 8-5 ATS. Interestingly, two of their three losses have come in Game 1’s. They opened the Portland and Houston series with a loss and both times were held below 100 points. It was a different story vs. Denver in the Western Conference Finals, but the Lakers had a big edge in rest for that Game 1 and the Nuggets, quite frankly, aren’t very good defensively. That the Lakers have started slow in two of the three series is notable to me. In terms of efficiency, Miami is the strongest defensive foe LA will have faced so far in the playoffs. Watch for that “trademark” Heat zone. 

Of course, the Lakers can be quite stingy too. They ranked 3rd in the regular season in defensive efficiency. Needless to say, Miami isn’t shooting 56.5% from the field again like they did vs. Boston in Gm 6. These teams met just once in the regular season. The Lakers won 113-110 with the game easily going Over the 211.5-pt total. You’ll note this O/U line is several points higher. That may have to do with the fact the Over was nearly perfect in the two Conf Finals series (9-1-1). The time off that both teams have had, plus the Lakers propensity for some Game 1 “clunkers” has me on the Under here. This number is higher than every game in either Conf Finals.  10* Under Heat/Lakers

10* Over Cardinals/Padres (5:05 ET): Despite some of their top hitters scuffling in September, San Diego still scored the third highest number of runs in all of MLB this season. They had the second best run differential (Dodgers) and are the #4 seed in the NL half of the draw. St. Louis, despite not clinching a playoff spot until Sunday, ended up as the #5 seed. They’ve previously eliminated the Padres in three different postseasons. I look for Game 1 of this first round series to go Over the total. 

If there is a question mark for the Padres in Game 1, it has to be starter Chris Paddack, who has been very inconsistent and allowed 4+ runs in four of his last eight regular season starts. Every time that Paddack allowed 4+ runs, he did so in less than five innings. His last start saw him give up 5 in just 3 ⅔ IP. The Over was 9-3 in his 12 regular season starts. While the Cardinals hardly have the most fearsome offense in the National League, look for them to score plenty of runs off Paddack. 

On the flip side, with the Padres averaging 5.3 runs per game at home this year, I have little doubt that they’ll do damage at the plate as well in Game 1. Over the final four reg season games, it seemed that the Padres regained their stride as they scored 21 runs, getting four or more in every game. Kwang-Hyun Kim is who StL is going with for Game 1 and this will be his first ever start against a non-division foe. (These teams did not meet in reg seasons).  Over is 6-2 in SD’s L8 home games with a total of 7.0 to 8.5. Over is 12-5 in the Cardinals’ last 17 playoff games. 10* Over Cardinals/Padres

8* Cincinnati Run Line (12:00 ET): This is a run line play only where I’m taking the Reds +1.5. I thought Cincy underachieved much of the year as this was supposed to be a breakout team the likes of which we saw in San Diego. They really didn’t hit their stride until late in the regular season (won 11 of last 14), but here they are in their first postseason since 2013. With the best starting rotation in the National League, the Reds should prove to be a “difficult out” as the Braves are set to find out in Round 1. Runs figure to be scarce in this series opener, so that makes the RL an even more “attractive option.” 

Trevor Bauer went 5-4 in 11 starts for the Reds this year (6-5 TSR). But that completely undersells just how well he pitched. He led the NL in ERA (1.73) and strikeouts (100). His WHIP (0.795) was also outrageous and the best among NL starters w/ at least nine outings. Bauer made it through six innings in all but one start. There were only three starts where he allowed more than two runs. Bauer getting +1.5 is obviously a major reason we’re taking the Reds in this situation. 

Now opposing Bauer will be Max Fried, an outstanding hurler in his own right that didn’t drop a single regular season start. But Fried has thrown just six innings since Sept 5, leaving him as a bit of a question mark. Going up against Bauer, the margin for error is very slim. No Reds’ opponent scored more than five runs when Bauer started this season and 9 of the 11 scored three runs or fewer. Yes, Atlanta has the vastly superior offense in this matchup, but look for that to be neutralized by the Reds’ superior starting rotation, beginning w/ Bauer in Game 1. 8* Cincinnati Run Line (+1.5)

8* Over Blue Jays/Rays (5:07 ET): Of the four first round series in the American League, this is the only featuring teams that actually met during the regular season. Being that they are rivals from the AL East, the Jays and Rays faced each other quite a bit -- 10 times to be exact. The Over was 7-3 in those 10 head to head matchups and what’s notable about that is only one time did you see a total as low as the one we’ve got for Game 1. It involved today’s starter for Toronto, Matt Shoemaker, and he didn’t last very long.

I was a bit stunned that the Blue Jays elected to go with Shoemaker over Hyun-Jin Ryu in this spot. Ryu is by far Toronto’s best starter, but perhaps he needed the extra day of rest after throwing 100 pitches on Thursday. Regardless of the reason, the decision to start Shoemaker will undoubtedly lead to TB scoring more runs tonight than they would have, if facing Ryu. Shoemaker made only six regular season starts, yet three were against the Rays! The Over was 2-1 and he allowed 3 HR’s in the L2 starts. Shoemaker started just once in September and it was back on the 21st. He could be rusty. 

Few are giving Toronto much of a chance in this best of three series at Tropicana Field. But they actually did outscore the Rays in the 10 regular season meetings, 48-44. The Blue Jays offense averaged 5.0 rpg in the regular season and 5.1 against left-handed starters. They face southpaw Blake Snell in Game 1. Snell has good numbers but also never pitched a full six innings in any of his 11 starts. Both times he started against the Jays, the game ended up going Over. The Over was 8-3 in Snell starts for the year. 8* Over Blue Jays/Rays