8* Maryland (6:30 ET): After last night's success (10* on Northwestern), it's back to the Big 10 we go. As discussed in yday's analysis, this top heavy league has three clear locks (Purdue, Ohio St, Michigan St) for the NCAA Tournament. Michigan is considered to a be 4th team that's "in," but the Wolverines did themselves no favors by losing last night. As for everyone else, it's going to take either an a) incredible late regular season run, b) winning the conference tournament or c) both a and b. Maryland and Penn State enter Wednesday in the middle of the pack, both at 16-9 straight up overall. The Terps ended a three-game losing streak on Sunday by rallying to beat Wisconsin. Penn State has covered four straight (3-1 SU) and off its biggest conference win to date, 82-58 over Iowa. 

First, let's address the "elephant in the room" here, shall we? Maryland could again be w/o 7'1" Michal Cekovsky, one of three injured players on this roster. Injuries can certainly help explain how this team went from 14-4 SU to just 16-9 SU in a hurry. However, they didn't have Cekovsky when they beat Wisconsin on Sunday. Note that there is a chance he plays tonight as he's listed as questionable on the injury report. Either way, this play stands. With or w/o Cekovsky, the Terps can stay in any game as long as their defense keeps playing the way it has. Opponents are shooting just 40.5% against them for the season. Also, while the record away from home looks bad (3-7 SU road/neutral site), note they've only been outscored by 3.7 PPG in those contests. 

I think that Penn State's previous result works against them here as it has artifically inflated this line. The Nittany Lions shot 54.7% from the floor against Iowa, but the Hawkeyes are a pretty atrocious defensive team and that adjective might be considered kind in some circles. While they've won three of their last four overall, including an upset over Ohio State, Penn State has won B2B games just one time in 2018. This is their longest ATS win streak of the season. I know Maryland has yet to win a single time as an underdog all season (0-8 SU), but tonight could very well be "their time." They beat Penn State back on Jan 2 (forgot to mention that!) as 3.5-pt chalk and that was despite making five fewer baskets in the game. 8* Maryland

8* Ole Miss (9:00 ET): The Rebels host Missouri tonight in a SEC tussle. While Mizzou is considered a NCAA Tournament team right now (Ole Miss is not), it's pretty interesting to note how the line has "flipped" overnight and you should be aware that while Ole Miss' SEC record is only 4-6 straight up, Mizzou's is just 5-5 SU. So despite the respective distinctions when it comes to the Big Dance, this is a lot closer matchup than most on the national level will make it out to be. In fact, I firmly believe that at home, the Rebels are likely to win here. Yes, they've lost three in a row, including a humiliating setback Saturday at Tennessee. But Mizzou is in prime letdown mode following a win over Kentucky that same day. 

Prior to winning B2B games (both by identical 69-60 scores), Missouri was dealing w/ its own three-game losing skid. All three losses were by double digits as well. Then came a win at Alabama last Wednesday and an even bigger victory Sat afternoon vs. Kentucky. The Tigers held those two opponents to about 33% shooting overall, which is obviously really tough to do. At the same time, Ole Miss shot only 35% from the floor against Tennessee. But a big key here is the game being Oxford where the Rebels average an impressive 81.6 PPG. Bottom line is I expect the hosts to be a lot more proficient on the offensive end tonight while the road team's defensive numbers from the L2 games should decrease rather dramatically here.

Missouri has dealt w/ plenty of attrition this season, losing four players from its original rotation. Michael Porter, Jr was obviously considered the biggest loss, but they've been dealing w/ his absence for almost three months now. Still, off their 1st EVER win over Kentucky, it's only natural to have a letdown in this spot. As for Ole Miss, they should be fully motivated coming off a 33-point loss on the road. They beat Missouri three times last season, so what's one more? Coming off an SEC loss, the Rebels are an incredible 19-3 ATS the past three seasons (4-1 ATS this year) and 65-33 ATS their L98. They are also a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS this season as a home favorite of three points or less. 8* Ole Miss

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): This is a key game in the Central, which is shaping up to be the tighest divisional race in the sport. Every team can claim a positive goal differential and the two points available here have become all the more critical considering both Nashville and Dallas won last night. St. Louis currently sits in the "coveted" third position, four points back of co-leaders Winnipeg and Nashville. While it's likely that the Central will send at least four teams to the playoffs, the Blues are only one point ahead of the Stars. After that, it's Minnesota, who as of right now would be the final Wild Card entrant in the Western Conference (61 points). The problem here for the Wild though is that this is a road game (and we saw what happened in their last one).

Everything you could say about the importance of this game to the Wild would have applied to their last one as well. They were in Dallas Saturday and lost 6-1. While a very good team on home ice (18-4-4 record), the Wild are just 10-15-1 SU on the road. That's obviously a big disparity. The big key is the level of play between the pipes. Devan Dubnyk, the team's #1 goalie who will likely start tonight, sees his save percentage dip down to .898 away from home. He had to come in relief Saturday, but still allowed two goals on the nine shots he faced. Minnesota is allowing slightly more shots per game on the road compared to at home, but that still can't fully "explain away" the fact they are also allowing 3.7 goals per game on the road compared to 2.08 at home (which is the LOWEST average in the league!). Conversely, the number of gpg they allow on the road is the second HIGHEST in the league!

So, is this one as easy as chalking things up to a home ice advantage for the Blues. Probably, yes. There's also the goaltending as well. St. Louis ranks third in the league in number of goals allowed per game and has given up one or fewer in four of its last five games overall. Sure, they've scored only one goal in B2B games themselves (did shutout Buffalo on Saturday). But I fully anticipate the offense "picking up" here. Either option in goal - Jake Allen or Carter Hutton - would be fine. Then there is the matter of St. Lous having Minnesota's number. They eliminated them from the playoffs (in 5 games) LY and have picked up at least a point in 18 of the previous 20 meetings. 8* St. Louis

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Cavs stink. Seriously. What once could be written off as a mere "swoon" (they have struggled every year in January since LeBron's return) has now morphed into full-fledged disaster. There has never been a time since the King's return (in 2014-15) where things have been THIS bad. Not only do the Cavs rank an atrocious 29th in defensive efficiency, things have now gotten so bad on that end of the floor that they have a negative net efficiency rating. That means their offense (top 5) is no longer good enough to carry the defense, especially now that they are w/o Kevin Love. Isaiah Thomas has been a complete disaster, especially when you consider who he was traded for (Kyrie Irving).

Saturday night saw Cleveland lose by 32 - at home - to the Rockets. It was the fourth time since January 1st that the team lost a game by 24+ points, which is almost unconscionable. The loss caused LeBron to call for the team to be pulled off national TV games indefinitely and HC Ty Lue to reassert that the he thinks this is still a "playoff team." Imagine just two months ago thinking the Cavs wouldn't make the playoffs in the East! Even more unconscionable than all the blowout losses the Cavs have racked up is the fact they are an absolutely heinous 8-31 ATS as a favorite this year. That's key, because while my "handicapping style" normally might dictate a "buy low" situation here, the issue is the Cavs are still laying a substantial number on the road. Quite simply, there isn't a team in the league they should be laying this many to on the road.

Now Orlando will certainly put that theory to the test. The Magic are one of the worst teams in the league having lost 32 of their previous 40 games. But they did win last night - in Miami - and now can win B2B games for the 1st time since early November! Cleveland has won only five times in 2018 and two of those wins were against the Magic. But they came by a combined five points and Orlando is actually 3-0 ATS vs. the Cavs this season, including an outright win (as 11.5-pt road dogs) back in October. Before winning at Orlando on January 6th, the Cavs' previous road win came on December 17th. They've won only three times on the road since the start of December! Take the points. 8* Orlando

10* Northwestern (7:00 ET): It remains to be seen just how many teams from the Big 10 make the NCAA Tournament. Three - Purdue, Michigan State and Ohio State - are considered absolute locks. After that, Michigan is considered the only other team "Tournament worthy" at this point. The Wolverines, winners of B2B games at home, will hit the road tonight for a critical game at Northwestern. Fresh off their 1st NCAA Tourney appearance last year, the host Wildcats came into this season w/ Big Dance aspirations (four returning starters) and were even ranked in the top 25 at the start of the year. But they have been one of the bigger disappointments in the country so far as they are only 14-10 SU and probably need to win the Conference Tournament to make the field of 68.

Of course, a late season run would certainly improve N'western's chances as well. Looking at their remaining schedule, there's reason to believe such a run is possible. Purdue and Ohio State are both out of the way and only one game (vs. Michigan State on 2.17) figures to see them as a substantial underdog (and even that one is at home). With the Big 10 having expanded, you simply don't see as many regular season rematches anymore. But this is one. Last Monday in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines downed the Wildcats 58-47 in an ugly shooting night for both sides. Northwestern turning the ball over 16 times (Michigan only five) was definitely a factor as was the venue. Michigan is 13-1 SU in Ann Arbor this season (+15.9 PPG) while they're just 4-4 SU in "true" road games (only +1.9 PPG). Meanwhile, N'western is 10-3 SU at home, averaging 79.1 PPG, which is a dramatic rise in scoring compared to their season average.

Northwestern has played two rematches in conference play thus far and won both. The first, like this game, was a revenge spot against Penn State (won 70-61 here in Evanston). The second saw them sweep the season series from Minnesota, winning 77-69 on the road. Michigan has played only one Big 10 foe twice so far and dropped both games to Purdue. Note N'western did lead by nine in the first half in the first meeting in Ann Arbor. Defensively, they are playing better since switching to a 2-3 zone. They've also been off since Thursday while Michigan had to play an overtime game on Saturday, squeaking by short-handed Minnesota. 10* Northwestern

8* Over Lightning/Oilers (9:05 ET): If this seems like a bit of "deja vu," well, I did just cash an Over w/ the Lightning involved Saturday night as they defeated Vancouver by a score of 4-2. The goal which put the game Over came late in the third period via the power play. However, that close call aside, it cannot be discounted that TB is the highest scoring team in the league at 3.6 goals per game. They dragged the #25 team in gpg to an Over, thus I believe they'll be able to do the same w/ a more dangerous Oilers club. Edmonton has to be considered the biggest disappointment in the league this season as their fans were thinking about a return to glory and Lord Stanley's Cup. Instead, the team sits well outside the playoff picture w/ only 48 pts. Take the Over.

Edmonton may rank only 22nd in scoring, but it's not for a lack of chances as they are tied for third in the league w/ 34.2 shots per game. They've been consistently victimized by some superior goaltending and having to likely face Andrei Vasilevskiy tonight seems like "rubbing it in." Vasilevskiy is making his case to be the Vezina Trophy winner for 2018 as he comes in w/ a .930 save percentage and 2.22 goals against average for the season, both of which are top five. However, his current pace will be awfully difficult to maintain as he's stopped 149 of the last 156 shots he's faced. Edmonton has scored three or more goals in five of its last six games, so do not be surprised if they are able to have some success against Vasilevskiy. 

Meanwhile, I don't anticipate any issues for the TB offense. As I already stated, they are #1 in the league in scoring. They've tallied four or more goals in four of the last five games and 11 total in the last two. They'll face Cam Talbot, who is coming off arguably the worst month of his career w/ a 3.57 GAA and .890 save percentage. He was out sick for the last game, a 4-3 loss to Colorado, and this is hardly the opponent you want to be facing right now. Each of the Oilers last two games were 4-3 finals as they also beat rival Calgary before the break. This is only their second game since All-Star Weekend, so the offense will be fresh as well. TB is now 16-9 Over after a game in which they scored 4+ goals. 8* Over Lightning/Oilers

10* Under Blazers/Pistons (7:05 ET): Detroit has won three straight, but still sits outside of the top eight in the Eastern Conference (one-half game behind Philadelphia). That's because prior to the current win streak, they'd lost eight in a row while going 1-7 ATS in the process. But for our purposes, the streak/trend to pay attention to is the fact they've gone Over in five consecutive games. During this time, they have averaged 110.4 points per game (well above their season average of 102.9). They've also allowed 113.0 PPG, which is also well above their season average (103.1). I view this stretch as a pretty clear "outlier" and fully expect them to regress to the mean, starting tonight. Take the Under here as the O/U line is too high.

Portland is sixth in the West, but it figures to be a tough battle for those final three playoff spots in the Conference the rest of the way. They've lost two in a row, to Toronto and Boston (two top teams in the East) and need a win here to avoid a winless trip. The Motor City has not been kind to the Blazers in recent years as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L4 trips here. Furthermore, this is the second game of a back to back as Sunday afternoon saw them fall by one point to a Boston team that was playing w/o Kyrie Irving. Al Horford's buzzer beater for the Celtics was of course the highlight of New Englanders' day yday. That's a tough loss for Portland as they held the Celtics to just 38 pts in the first half, but wound up shooting below 40% for the game themselves. 

The acquisition of Blake Griffin can be directly tied to the Pistons' resurgence, though they've been a good home team all year and both wins w/ Griffin in the lineup have been here in Detroit. Though Griffin scored 16 pts in the win over Miami Saturday, he made only one field goal the entire second half. I just come back to the fact that in four of the previous five games, the Pistons have scored and allowed more points than what they are giving up for the season. The one time they did not (vs. Memphis), the O/U line was very low. While yday may have marked the 1st time since 12.30 that Portland failed to score 100 pts, they have given up less than triple digits in three of the last five games. These teams rank 10th and 11th respectively in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Blazers/Pistons

8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): This matchup is used to carrying a lot of national importance, but not so much this time. Louisville is good, and the job that HC Scott Padgett is doing here should really be commended, considering the circumstances he inherited. However, the Cardinals are not ranked and are unlikely to make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Syracuse might be lucky even to make the field of 68 at this point as they are coming off an 0-2 week where they were held below 100 total pts by Georgia Tech and Virginia. Of course, L'ville was also 0-2 SU last week. So something is going to have to give here and I'll take the points, noting Syracuse had not been beaten by a margin larger than seven in ACC play (discounting an overtime loss) prior to Saturday. 

Looking at Syracuse's last seven days, their lack of success simply boils down to an inability to make shots. They shot 30% and 33.3% in the two losses, thereby negating some of their own strong defensive efforts. Note that this team actually ranks ninth in the country in defensive efficiency, which would serve them well if they were to make the NCAA Tournament. But it's actually been three straight games shooting 35.2% or worse from the field. Talk about being "due" to make shots! Prior to the loss to Virginia on Saturday (no shame there), the Orange had allowed field goal percentages of 27.7% and 33.3% its last two games. They are fourth in the nation in field goal percentage allowed. Saturday was a case of simply running into a better team. Only four Syracuse players scored, which is downright unconscionable! 

As for L'ville, they have given Syracuse problems in the past, especially here at home. Not only have the Cardinals won and covered seven of the last eight meetings at home, they are 3-0 SU and ATS the L3 overall. However, that was a different (and better) regime. This Louisville team has dropped three of its last four and for the 1st time in two seasons has dropped B2B ACC games. They were held to 12 of 33 shooting after halftime vs. Florida State on Saturday and outrebounded severely as well. Junior Ray Spalding (ankle) was also injured in the loss. Before Virginia on Saturday, Syracuse's ACC losses were by two, seven, 11 (misleading as it was a 2OT game) and four points. I like them as the underdog here. 8* Syracuse

10* Under Eagles/Patriots (6:30 ET): So, against the odds, the Eagles did make it to the Super Bowl. That sounds like an odd statement for a team that had home field advantage, but this isn't your typical #1 seed as they were a dog in both games. That's due to Nick Foles now starting at QB rather than MVP candidate Carson Wentz. Turns out that the "downgrade" from Wentz to Foles was severely overrated, if it even exists at all. As I've said before and will repeat again here, the strength of this Philly team has always been on the defensive side of the ball. It's now been four games in a row that this defense has allowed 10 pts or fewer (33 pts total). That will serve them well in this Super Bowl matchup w/ the favored Patriots. I know I've had success taking the Eagles twice so far, but I'll back away here and instead play the total, which I believe stays Under.

New England's defense is very interesting to evaluate. In terms of points allowed, they were 5th in the league, giving up only 18.5 per game. That's right behind the Eagles (4th), who allowed 18.4. But there's a giant gap between the two defenses in terms of yardage allowed. While Philly was also 4th in that department, New England was 29th. That bend but don't break mentality typically lends itself to regression, however, there is no denying that Matt Patricia's defense has gotten better as the season has gone along. Getting back to the number of points allowed, they've given up 20 pts or less in 12 of the past 16 games. They allowed only 267 yds total in the Divisional Rd win over Tennessee. Jacksonville outgained them (slightly) in the AFC Champ Game, but it was just six points in the 2H. Four of the seven drives after halftime were five plays or less and resulted in punts. 

The O/U line exceeds the total number of points per game both teams see scored in their respective games this year. The respective point differentials are actually virtually identical. Philly is #1 in the league, outscoring its opponents 28.3 to 17.3 per game. New England was #2 at 28.7 - 18.3. Though I have been downplaying Foles replacing Wentz at QB, it is a downgrade and I do have concerns over a backup QB on this stage. All but one of Foles starts have come at home. There is just no way the Eagles offense will perform as well here as they did in the NFC Title Game. Remember that one TD came from the defense. Also, remember that two weeks ago they were held to only 15 pts. As for the New England offense, will they have TE Rob Gronkowski (concussion)? Even if so, he is unlikely to be 100 percent. They only gained 344 yards against Jacksonville, includig 46 yds rushing against what is not a good run defense. The Eagles have a much better run defense than the Jags and given the status of Gronk, the Pats' passing game will be hampered. 10* Under Eagles/Patriots

10* Under Hornets/Suns (3:05 ET): Charlotte has begun to gain some "momentum" (still hate that word!) w/ B2B wins, but I'm not about to fall into the "trap" until further evidence of a legit turnaround is put forth. The Hornets have burnt me before as this is arguably the unluckiest team in NBA history, considering their record in games decided by three points or less is now 0-13 SU the L2 seasons. They have only two win streaks of three games all season and both took place prior to December. So, even though I FIRMLY believe this team is better than its overall record (better point differential than the Cavs!), I'm not about to lay points with them here. Especially this many. But something has caught my eye and that concerns the total. I'll be on the Under here.

The Hornets' two wins, which came against Atlanta and Indiana, saw them total an astronomical 256 points by themselves. They've previously had some big scoring efforts this year, but the 133 against Indiana Friday night matched a season-high. They shot 53% from the field and sank 15 three-pointers. It also helped that they went 30 of 34 from the free throw line. Kemba Walker led the way w/ 41 pts and has 79 the L2 games. Now, a matchup w/ the typically "defenseless" Suns (29th in efficiency) might seem ideal, but I'm not about to discount the fact Charlotte is only 7-15 SU on the road in large part to a scoring decrease from what they average at home. They won't have the FT shooting to lean on tonight and also this is one of their highest O/U lines of the season. The only two that were higher both saw the Under come in.

Phoenix does not shoot the ball well as they are below 44% from the field even at home. Last game saw them shoot only 41.4% from the floor, not that it mattered as they got blitzed by Utah, eventually losing by a score of 129-97. But Charlotte won't come close to matching the Jazz's shooting performance from that game (56.7%!) and while the Suns do give up plenty of points (112.1 per game), they also are 14-5 Under when facing an opponent that also allows more than 106 PPG. That includes four straight. Simply put, the O/U line is too high here as Charlotte is due to be worse offensively and Phoenix is due to get better defensively. 10* Under Hornets/Suns

8* Under Sharks/Hurricanes (1:05 ET): San Jose's reputation as one of the league's top Under teams has been well-established by this point. Only their division rival Anaheim is on par w/ their 19-31-1 Under mark right now and that's even after four of the last six games have gone Over. But the last two have both stayed Under. After beating Columbus 3-1 on Friday, the Sharks' trek out East continues this afternoon w/ a visit to Carolina. The Hurricanes are right up there at the top of the league in terms of number of shots per game, however, they are only 24th in goals per game. Given the opposition here, that discrepancy isn't about to start rectifying itself. Each of the 'Canes L3 games have gone Under and so will this one.

While San Jose has been traveling, Carolina has gotten to stay in the friendly confines of home as this will be their fourth consecutive game in Raleigh and they've got four more coming after today. Unfortunately though, they've managed only five goals total in the first three and while two was enough to beat back both Montreal and Ottawa, it was a 4-1 loss to Detroit on Friday. There were a ton of shots in that game (38-37 in favor of the Red Wings), but Carolina just couldn't find a way to score save for the power play. Their PP has scored in 13 of the previous 14 games, but I don't expect that trend to continue as they rank only 19th on the man advantage for the season (at 19.4%). Also, the team is 13-7 Under after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game.

San Jose has actually done Carolina "one better" in terms of the power play of late, scoring 14 times in their last 15 games. Two of their goals in the 3-1 win over Columbus Friday came when having a man advantage. Unlike Carolina, there is evidence that this could continue for the Sharks, who rank 4th in PP% for the season. But, at the same time, the current pace will be difficult (if not impossible) to maintain. The Sharks will also have to face Carolina's top goalie, Cam Ward, something Detroit did not have to do. Ward has a .926 save percentage his L4 starts. San Jose's goaltending situation is what has really kept the team afloat. Aaron Dell and Martin Jones have both been reliable options all year. 8* Under Sharks/Hurricanes

8* Montreal (1:05 ET): Recently, it seems as if I've spent ample time discussing the "great divide" that exists in the NHL's Atlantic Division. The top three (in every division) are guaranteed playoff sports and in the case of the Atlantic, it's been well-known (for awhile) who those three will be (Tampa Bay, Boston, Toronto). The rest of the division has essentially been relegated to "also-ran" status as not only have they fallen well behind the top three, but the field is unlikely to catch anyone from the Metropolitan for a Wild Card spot either. Of the two teams here, Montreal can at least cling to some faint hope that a second half run would land them in the playoffs. Ottawa is by just about any objective metric the third worst team in the league. I'll ride with the Habs at home!

Now I should point out that the Senators have won two straight. They beat Philadelphia last night, 4-3. But that's all the more reason to bet against them here. Not only have the Sens not won three in a row since sweeping a trip through Western Canada in October, they played last night and for a second straight time needed extra time to achieve victory. It was a 4-3 win at Philadelphia Friday w/ the game going to a shootout. The Sens actually blew a 3-1 lead, but were outshot and it took 12 players (total) to finally get a goal in the SO. Prior to the win, they were tied for the fewest number of road wins in the league. Therefore, it's really tough to believe they're going to win B2B days away from home. Prior to winning two straight, the Sens had lost six in a row and they're still averaging less than two goals per game their last five contests.

Montreal snapped its own losing streak last night w/ a 5-2 win over Anaheim. The Ducks are the other team Ottawa has beaten in its two-game win streak. But unlike the Senators, no overtime was required for the Canadiens. The Habs were outshot pretty badly Saturday, 45-29, but the fact they got an incredibly strong effort from backup Antii Niemi (43 saves) is huge. Not only did they get the two points, but today they can start a fresh Carey Price, who has a .936 save percentage against division foes this year. The Habs' power play, which ranks ninth in the league, scored three times yesterday and will be up against the 28th ranked PK here. 8* Montreal

8* Wisconsin (1:00 ET): If you're a regular client, then you may be getting a little "sick" of the Badgers right about now. After all, I've tried unsuccessfully w/ them, not once but twice, in the past seven days. Monday, they lost at home to Nebraska by a score of 74-63 (were 3.5 pt favorites). Wednesday, they again lost as a small home favorite, this time to Northwestern by a score of 60-52. The team has now lost seven of its last eight games overall (2-6 ATS) and its only role in the Big 10 race moving forward will be that of a spoiler. Call me stubborn; but I think they're undervalued in this spot (granted I thought the same the L2 games). So, let's say "the third time is the charm" and take the points.

Maryland is the Badgers' third opponent in the last seven days. The Terps aren't exactly playing well either as they've lost three straight and five of the last six. They will also not be at full strength Sunday. Leading scorer Anthony Cowan is dealing w/ a thumb injury and thus won't be at 100 percent. Furthermore, two other players - Dion Wiley and Michal Cekovsky - are listed as doubtful, thereby costing them depth. Maryland's one strength is rebounding, but they failed to control the boards in Tuesday's 75-67 loss at Purdue. Granted, that's one of the top teams in the entire country, but the Terrapins fell into a big early hole and never led in that game.

Wisconsin's season also took a nosedive in part due to injury, but at least they've become accustomed to playing w/o both D'Mitrik Trice and Kobe King. I realize that the Badgers have just one win outside of Madison all season, but rarely are they blown out and when they are, it's usually by a very good team. Maryland is not very good and the only reason they have a better record than Wisconsin has to do w/ a softer non-conference schedule. The Badgers have won each of the last two meetings against the Terps, both by double digits. Granted, they are nowhere close to the same time this year, but I think they have enough to stay within what is a generous number. 8* Wisconsin

10* Over Lightning/Canucks (10:05 ET): Vegas is obviously the better story, but for most of this season, Tampa Bay has been the NHL's best team. They arrive in Vancouver (for what should be a relatively easy matchup) w/ the most points and the best scoring differential. However, generally speaking, I don't like to lay this much juice on the road. Therefore, let's look at the total, shall we? The Over seems like a good "buy" considering the Lightning are the highest scoring team in the league and the Canucks are 25th in goals allowed. There's no doubt in my mind that TB will "get theirs" Saturday night. But also don't be surprised if Vancouver is able to find the back of the net multiple times in this one as well. Take the Over.

Case in point, Vancouver is off B2B wins and scored four goals in each victory. Those wins both came at home and were at the expense of Colorado and Chicago. They were shutout in the final game before the All-Star Break (by Buffalo!), but the game before that saw them score six goals in a win over the Kings. So that's 14 goals in the last four games for them despite being shutout in one of them. Something else worth noting is Vancouver swept the season series LY from Tampa Bay, scoring nine goals in two games!

Of course, the Lightning can score too. They proved that by beating Calgary 7-4 on Thursday night. They too have scored four or more in three of the past four games. The Over is 15-9 for the Lightning this season if they scored four or more goals the previous game. 10* Over Lightning/Canucks

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): To me, there are two clear things "conspiring" against the Pelicans here, which have resulted in this line being several points higher than it ought to be. One is obviously the season-ending injury to DeMarcus Cousins, which literally and figuratively could prove to be a crippling blow to the team's playoff hopes. The other is the fact they find themselves in the second night of a back to back, on the road no less. But they were able to go into Oklahoma City last night and defeat the Thunder, so I see little reason why they can't compete here against a comparable Timberwolves squad. Take the points.

Remember that New Orleans still has Anthony Davis. He had 43 points last night against the Thunder and that was while being matched up against Steven Adams, one of the legaue's better interior defenders. The Pelicans shot 51% from the field as a team, including 13 of 24 from behind the three-point line, and that was against a top five team in defensive efficiency. Minnesota is nowhere close to that as they rank 24th in defensive efficiency (2nd worst among current playoff teams) and give up 105.7 points per game. Furthermore, Davis is going to be getting a little help now. Right after the Cousins injury, the front office made a move, acquiring Nikola Mirotic from Chicago. Mirotic is expected to make his debut tonight. Note that the Pelicans have won outright each of the last four times they've been a dog and that includes games vs. Boston, Houston and OKC!

Minnesota has been a strong home team this year (21-6 SU) and are outscoring visitors by 7.4 points per game. Thursday saw them in a spot where they have typically responded very well, that being a return home off B2B road losses. They beat Milwaukee 108-89 as six-point chalk. They are now a perfect 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS at home off B2B losses this season. That includes a win over these Pelicans back on Jan 6, 116-98. As impressive as that final margin looks, note that the T'wolves were only 1.5-pt favorites in that game. The line is substantially higher here and I simply don't agree with that. With three days off before a visit to Cleveland next week, don't be shocked if Minny gets caught "looking ahead" tonight. 8* New Orleans

8* Florida (7:05 ET): The Red Wings got one over on me last night by beating Carolina, 4-1. But I don't see this subpar club winning B2B road games, so a fade in this spot is the natural reaction. They'll play Florida, a team that did just win B2B road games, beating the Islanders and Buffalo while scoring eight goals in the process. As those who have been following my NHL plays throughout the season already know, I feel the Red Wings have been plenty fortunate these L2 seasons. That may seem odd to say given they didn't make the playoffs last season nor are they likely to this year. (This after a record setting streak of postseason appearances). But a 13-1 SU record in shootouts has "propped them up" and the reality is things should have gone much worse for them.

\Florida enters the day two points (one win) back of Detroit for fourth place in the Atlantic. However, there's a huge gap (of 15 points) between third and fourth in the division and only the top three are guaranteed playoff spots. Therefore, it's the Wild Card that should be on both teams' minds moving forward. There's a lot of teams to jump, but right now 56 pts is the number for the final WC in the Eastern Conference (Detroit has 50, Florida 48). So that is not necessarily out of reach. A big key here for the Panthers will be to get an early lead. The team is a perfect 13-0 SU this season when leading after two periods. Given that Detroit is playing its second game in as many nights, I see it being logical to expect Florida to take control early. 

The respective goaltending situations are something worth monitoring here. The Panthers are riding the glove of 28-year old rookie Harri Sateri right now. After spending 10 years in the minors, Sateri has finally got his chance at the NHL level due to injuries to Florida's top two netminders, Roberto Luongo and James Reimer. He's made the most of it, stopping 62 of 65 shots on goal. As for Detroit, they've gote a decision to make tonight as Petr Mrazek was between the pipes last night and made 36 saves. He's started three of the last four games, so a night off may have to be given. Jimmy Howard, the long-time starter here, is no longer what he once was. His save percentage in his L4 starts is just .861. 8* Florida

8* Indiana (8:15 ET): Indiana has performed somewhat admirably in conference play, covering six of its last eight. However, the schedule has not been kind to them of late as tonight's game vs. Michigan State will be their THIRD in a row vs. Top 25 team! They did stick within the number here in Bloomington vs. Purdue (lost by only seven as 8.5-pt dogs), but then were never really "in it" Tuesday at Ohio State (lost by 15 as 10-pt dogs). Drawing a Michigan State team that absolutely annihilated them last month in East Lansing is probably the last thing the Hoosiers wanted to see for this weekend. But I think there's some substantial value to be had here as there's no way they'll play as poorly in this rematch. Take the points.

Michigan State was "only" a 14.5-pt favorite in the first meeting when they shot 54.2% from the field, including 10 of 20 from three-point range. Sparty was also off a loss there (to Michigan), so it was a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for IU there. The Hoosiers certainly didn't help themselves in that first meeting, shooting only 33.9% from the field and missing 18 of 26 three-point tries. It was a 19-point game at halftime and from there the margin ballooned to 28 by the final buzzer. When you look at the line for tonight, there's been a clear adjustment by the oddsmakers and I would dub it an "overadjustment" quite frankly. 

IU has lost three straight, but when they lost to Michigan State earlier in the season, they were coming in on a three-game win streak. As I mentioned, Sparty was off a loss. Now they've won five in a row as they look to keep pace w/ Purdue and Ohio State atop the Big 10 standings. However, let's be sure to note the Spartans needed to rally to beat Penn State at home Wednesday (trailed by six at halftime). That makes it two in a row where they had to rally back from a deficit that got as high as double digits (trailed Maryland by as many as 13 Sunday). Let's also not discount the sexual assault controversy currently engulfing the Michigan State campus right now and the impact that can have on the coaches and players. Tom Izzo is repeatedly being asked about it and at this point, it's got to be at least a little distracting. This is too many points to lay on the conference road. 8* Indiana

10* Oregon (5:00 ET): As discussed yday, the Pac 12 is not a particularly strong or deep league this year. Right now, we're looking at three, maybe four, teams making the Big Dance. Neither Oregon nor Stanford are currently among that quartet. However, Oregon (a Final Four team last year!) looks like their making a run at it. The Ducks (who lost four starters from LY's team) have won three straight, all as favorites, most recently 66-53 over Cal on Thursday. The Ducks have been a great bet the last few seasons, especially when coming off a conference win, a role they are 29-9 ATS in since 2016. They are also 10-3 ATS as a dog the L3 seasons and here will be traveling to Palo Alto to face a Stanford team that had lost three in a row prior to Thursday. 

The Cardinal snapped their losing skid by beating lowly Oregon State, here at home, two nights ago. They opened a 15-pt lead at halftime and the margin never got closer than six in the second half. Despite struggling of late, Stanford has been solid at the betting window, covering eight of its last nine games overall! But that has a funny way of working itself out as an ATS streak such as that often leads to teams becoming overvalued in the marketplace and that's what we have here. Even at home, I do not believe the Cardinal should be favored in this game. This will also be the first time in three weeks that we find them playing a second game in three days, which is actually a common spot in the Pac 12, but one they've obviously avoided of late. 

I realize that this is also Oregon's second road game in three days, but they covered in this spot the last time they were in it (I remember b/c I was on them!), losing to Arizona by only seven as nine-point dogs. At the time, it was actually the Ducks' third consecutive road game and they were off an upset of Arizona State. Oregon has the better overall record of these two teams, 15-7 vs. 12-11, and really they should have beaten Cal by more on Thursday. They led by double digits most of the way, yet did so despite turning the ball over 17 times and giving up 19 offensive rebounds. Clean up those issues and you have a team that can make a late season run in the Pac 12! 10* Oregon

8* LSU (3:30 ET): The SEC may be king in football, but that's definitely NOT the case in basketball. While the latest projections have as many as SEVEN teams from the conference making the field of 68, none seem like legit Final Four contenders to me. Arkansas is one of those seven projected "in," but the Razorbacks are only 4-5 SU in league play and really can't afford too many more slip ups. They just lost, 80-66, at Texas A&M on Tuesday and have been a complete disaster at the betting window, going just 1-8 ATS vs. the rest of the SEC. That doesn't even include last Saturday's win (but non-cover) at home over Oklahoma State, 66-65 as seven-point chalk. Problem here for the Razorbacks is this is another road game. They are just 1-5 SU and ATS in "true" roadies so far. 

LSU is just 3-6 SU in conference play, but that's the same record as the Texas A&M team that just beat Arkansas. Consider there are currently eight teams currently 4-5 SU or 3-6 SU in SEC play, so it's a real logjam in the middle. Just 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games overall, the Tigers have been struggling. The last week has not gone well for them - at all - as they lost to Auburn and Tennessee by a combined 48 points. But both of those games did take place on the road. Here in Baton Rouge, they are a respectable 8-4 SU and outscoring visitors by 14.3 points per game (shooting better than 50%). Their last home game was a win, 77-65 over Texas A&M, as two-point underdogs. Two of their four home losses have been by three points or less. 

Something else to consider is what LSU did to Arkansas in the first meeting. They went to Fayatteville and prevailed 75-54 as 10-pt underdogs! Arkansas couldn't make a shot to save their lives as they finished the game at only 33.3% from the field and trailed by 20 at halftime. I'd say that's something that's pretty important to note! Now, even though they're now at home, it certainly won't be that easy for LSU here. However, Arkansas is not good defensively as they are giving up 81.7 PPG in conference play. LSU shot 52.7% against them in the first meeting and obviously had its way inside considering that, like the Hogs, they were just 4 of 18 from three-point range. The Tigers will have a deeper bench for this game w/ two players back from suspension.  8* LSU

8* UCF (12:00 ET): Though Cincinnati and Wichita State are the headlines, there's more to the AAC than just those two this season. Right now, both Houston and SMU are considered NCAA Tournament teams, although they are by no means "off the bubble." Then there is UCF. The Golden Knights have some ugly conference losses on their resume, yet are still in position to finish as high as second place in the conference w/ a late surge. Wednesday, here at home, saw them down UConn by a score of 70-61 as 5-pt chalk. Today, they host aforementioned Houston, who is off a loss and playing the second of back to back road games. It was Cincinnati that got the Cougars on Wednesday, 80-70, in a game w/ an 8.5-pt spread. 

To make that late surge, UCF is going to have to overcome some injuries. Definitely Tacko Fall (2nd leading scorer) and possibly Chance McSpadden (5.5 ppg) could be out today. However, it's important to note that neither played against UConn Wednesday. Ironically, a key midseason return (B.J. Taylor) led the way. Taylor, who is now the team's leading scorer after just five games, scored 20 points. He was one of four Knights to score in double figures as the team picked up just its second win EVER over UConn. After giving up the first basket of the game, UCF never trailed again. So it was a pretty impressive victory. As a home dog of three points or less, the Golden Knights have covered 10 of their past 12 (also 10-2 SU).

A loss here would obviously be crushing to Houston's resume, but they have to prove to me that they can win on the road. They are just 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in "true" road games thus far and as mentioned earlier, just dropped another one this week. It was the third time in the last four road games that the Cougars allowed 80 or more points. It's goes w/o saying that it's pretty tough to win on the road when you're giving up that many. UCF is by no means a prolific offensive team, but they do give up only 59.3 PPG at home this season w/ opponents shooting below 38% from the field! They actually rank #6 nationally in defensive efficiency. One of the few teams ahead of them in that category is Cincinnati, who just beat Houston. The Cougars have failed to cover the L3 times they have been a road fave of -3 or less. 8* UCF

8* Utah (9:00 ET): The Pac 12 isn't particularly strong this season. Outside of Arizona, I really don't see any other team making any "noise" come March. Remember when Arizona State was one of the last remaining unbeaten teams in the country? Right now, no one (outside of the pollsters of course!) considers the Sun Devils even among the top 40 nationally and I'd say there's a decent chance they won't even make the NCAA Tournament! Right now, if you believe the "Bracketologists," only three Pac 12 teams would make the field of 68. Two teams struggling to find their way will meet Friday night in Boulder as Utah comes calling to play Colorado. The Utes swept last year's season series and have beaten the Buffs three straight times overall.

CU hardly comes into tonight in top form. They've lost three in a row, all by nine points or more. Saturday, it was an 80-66 loss at Arizona State where they again failed defensively in the second half. The last two games have seen the Buffaloes give up 98 points atfer halftime. That's way too many. It also didn't help that they failed to get to the FT line (only nine attempts) against ASU and their own top two scorers combined for only 10 points. Obviously, some of those numbers are set to improve upon a return home, but the bottom line is that this team simply isn't very good. Since opening the year 6-0 SU (all six wins at home), the Buffs are just 6-10 SU their L16 games. 

Utah was hoping to enter this game, their third in a row on the road, on a four-game win streak. But they lost by a single point at Arizona on Saturday, 74-73. The Utes rallied back from a deficit that got as high as 13 pts in the second half. That was a tough spot though as two days earlier, they'd gone to overtime and beat Arizona State in Tempe. Arizona simply could not miss as they finished the game at a ridiculous 64.4% from the field, including 10 of 16 from three-point range. I seriously doubt that Colorado can come close to matching those kind of offensive numbers. Interesting to note that CU has only been favored twice in Pac 12 play thus far. This line figures to close around a pick 'em, but still. The Buffaloes have scored more than 71 pts just one time in the previous six games. 8* Utah

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Raptors dropped a tough one last night, losing to the Wizards (sans John Wall) by a score of 122-119. That result came despite them shooting 53% from the floor. But they had no answer for Bradley Beal in the 4Q as he scored 27 of his 29 pts there, plus the Wiz were 24 of 26 from the free throw line. Still, if they hope to be the East's top seed, that's a game Toronto needs to win. Tonight, they are back at home where they're 19-4 SU on the season and outscoring teams by more than ten points per game. No team in the league has a better record or point differential on its home floor. The visitor tonight is Portland, who has won and covered four straight, thereby influencing this line to this point where there's value on the home side. Lay the points.

Of Portland's four consecutive wins, three have come against Dallas, the Clippers (day after Griffin trade) and Chicago. They were the betting favorite in all four games. Wednesday saw CJ McCollum score 50 pts in just three quarters (28 of them coming in the 1st) as they routed Chicago 124-108 (led 43-19 after 1Q). Don't look for any kind of repeat performance tonight, however. The Bulls let them shoot 56.1% from the floor, a season-best (for the Blazers). Note that in the first matchup vs. Toronto this season, Portland scored only 85 pts, including a six-point second quarter. It's also interesting to see the Blazers have held three straight opponents below 41.5% from the field. Don't look for that to happen again tonight as Toronto comes in ranked 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The Raptors did lead by as many as seven it the first half last night before the Wizards made their comeback. This team doesn't lose B2B games very often though; they are 11-4 SU off a loss, outscoring the opposition by 8.5 points per game. At home, we see their scoring average jump to 112.5 PPG, but as we saw last night, scoring is no issue for this group. Rather the key may be that their defense is giving up only 101.8 PPG at home, a substantial decrease from what they allowed last night and are giving up on the road over the course of the season. This four-game win streak is Portland's longest of the season and they've also lost five straight years here in Toronto. 10* Toronto

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Not to continuously beat a "dead horse," but the Metropolitan really is a deep and interesting division this season. It's pretty clear that the division will be sending five teams to the playoffs. But outside of first place Washington, who will the other four be? We've currently got seven teams separated by just five points in the standings. The hottest of the bunch is Pittsburgh, who has won three straight to move into third place. The Pens are also 8-2 their L10 games. Tonight, they look to wrap up a perfect homestand with a visit from the aforementioned Caps. This is a really big game for the defending Stanley Cup Champs and one I believe they'll win. They've won 8 of the last 11 times hosting Washington.

Getting this one on home ice is a pretty big deal for the Pens. They've won six in a row at home, tying a season-best streak. The last two games have seen them score 11 goals and over the course of the six-game win streak, they've outscored the opposition by greater than a 2:1 margin at 29-14. Over a quarter of their remaining games will be played w/o rest, so taking advantage of the day off here is paramount. I would anticipate this veteran outfit "turning it on" in February. Their shot per game differential is one of the best in the league, indicating better fortune should be forthcoming. They also have the league's top power play at 26.7%. I just can't see opposing goaltenders continuing to maintain a .942 even strength save percentage against the Pens. 

Though they currently have a five-point edge on the field, the Caps are by no means dominating their division. In fact, they are just 9-4-3 against the rest of the Metro (Pittsburgh is 10-4 SU). Like Pittsburgh, the Caps came out of the All-Star Break and won, 5-3 over Philadelphia. But something certainly worth noting is Washington has a losing road record while being outshot and outscored. Pittsburgh's goals per game average jumps to 3.5 at home, which is pretty significant (about a full goal more per game) compared to what they average on the road. The Caps' penalty killing unit (ranked 17th) is below average, so the chances of being exploited by the Pens' top-ranked PP unit are pretty strong here. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Carolina (7:05 ET): The Hurricanes picked up two crucial points last night by shutting out Montreal, 2-0, here at home. It was their third consecutive win, but that only leaves them tied for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The Metro is likely to send five teams into the playoffs this year, and outside of Washington, it's anybody's guess as to who the other four will be. Currently, you have seven teams separated by just five points! Meanwhile, over in the Atlantic, Detroit is one of several teams already relegated to "also-ran" status. That division is a lot clearer than the Metro right now as you have three teams (TB, Boston and Toronto) that are almost assuredly playoff-bound while the rest are not.  

So we've established that Carolina has every reason to be the more motivated side Friday night. They should also be pretty confident knowing that they just beat the Red Wings, in Detroit, 10 days ago. This is a really critical stretch for the 'Canes as well. They'll be playing their next six and nine of the next 10 games at home where they are now 12-7-4 for the year. Something in Carolina's favor for this stretch is that they average an impressive 36.4 shots per game on home ice. So they should get plenty of scoring chances here. As for the other side of the ledger, Detroit is just 28th in goals per game. Carolina may have to turn to Scott Darling in goal tonight (Cam Ward made 27 saves last night), but should be fine either way.  

I keep waiting for the Red Wings to lose a shootout. They won another one last night, at home over San Jose, to move to 13-1 in SO's since the start of last season. That's a record that seems totally unsustainable. If not for that record, one has to wonder just how bad their overall won-loss record would look over that time. Now they did outshoot the Sharks, pretty significantly, last night. But only once in the previous six games have they topped two goals in regulation. All but one of those games were played in the Motor City. I just don't think the Red Wings are very good while Carolina is actually #1 in the league in shot per game differential (key metric!). 8* Carolina

8* Under Thunder/Nuggets (10:35 ET): Oddsmakers continually anticipate these two teams will play a high-scoring game against one another, yet (at least recently) that hasn't been the case. The last four head to head meetings, two of those taking place this season, have all stayed Under. In fact, the two meetings this season have both seen less than 200 total pts scored. Oklahoma City, despite having three current/former All-Stars, is overrated offensively. They have recently climbed up to 9th in efficiency, but really it has been the defense (4th) that has kept them in the mix. As for Denver, they were the top Over team last year, but 30-21 Under this season. This number is too high and I'm going Under.

Now the Thunder had gone Over in five straight, but that was before losing to Washington on Tuesday, 102-96. The Wizards didn't even have John Wall in the lineup, so that's a bad loss. I had the Under in that game as OKC shot just 37.5% while holding the Wiz to 38.2% from the field. Out on the road, the Thunder's scoring average does dip down to 104.8 points per game. This is also a bad free throw shooting team (68.9% on the road!). They scored only 42 pts in the 2H Tuesday w/ Russell Westbrook scoring only 13 pts for the game. Obviously, Westbrook should score more here, but what about the rest of the team? Remember guard Andre Roberson is now done for the year and it's not like this is a very deep team. The Under is 14-9 when the Thunder face an opponent that has a winning record. 

Denver is also off a loss, by two to San Antonio. In fact, their previous three games (1 win, 2 losses) have all been decided by two pts or less (five points total). Tonight's O/U line is higher than any of the previous five games. At one point, Denver went Under in seven consecutive games in January. The Under is 16-10 in their home games w/ 211.8 total ppg scored. They typically play MUCH better defense at home, allowing almost six fewer points per game than they do on the road. Problem is the Nuggets are really banged up right now w/ Paul Milsap, Mason Plumlee and possibly Wilson Chandler all out. That will continue to affect them on the offensive end. 8* Under Thunder/Nuggets

8* Over Blackhawks/Canucks (10:05 ET): As recently as a month ago, if I would have told you that one of these two teams would be in last place on Feb 1st, the virtually unanimous choice would have likely been the Canucks. Sure, they play in the same division as Arizona, but there's certainly no way that mighty Chicago could ever find itself in the division cellar, right? Wrong. They come into today last in the Central. Now that's a bit of a misleading distinction seeing as they have 55 pts, nine more than the Canucks. Furthermore, the Central is as tough as any division in recent memory. Every teams besides the Blackhawks has a winning record. 

As "easy" as it might seem to call for a Blackhawks' victory here, season-long inconsistencies give me pause. They have won B2B road games, beating Detroit and Nashville, but that was around the All-Star Break w/ plenty of time off in between. The 'Hawks did lose their only prior visit to B.C. earlier this season. I do think they'll be able to score plenty in this matchup though. Vancouver gives up 3.4 goals per game here at home and it's not as if goaltender Jacob Markstrom is involved in any kind of Vezina discussion. Overall, the Canucks rank 25th in goals allowed.

The last three Vancouver games have all seen either them or the opponent score four goals. Last time out, it was a 4-3 win over Colorado, in overtime. That was after being shutout by Buffalo, 4-0, last Thursday. The game before that was a 6-2 win over the Kings. All three took place here at home. Chicago's goaltending remains in flux as Corey Crawford is still out. Jeff Glass and Anton Forsberg continue to split time. Forsberg has played the better of the two of late, but he also stunk against Vancouver in the last visit, giving up five goals on 31 shots. 8* Over Blackhawks/Canucks

8* Gonzaga (9:00 ET): At this time last season, Gonzaga was still unbeaten and would stay that way until the regular season finale when they lost (at home) to BYU. But, as we know, it was the second loss that stung more as it took place in the National Championship Game to North Carolina. This year's team isn't quite as good and as a result, has been flying "under the radar." They're currently ranked 14th, but I believe them to be better than that. Most computer ranking systems, as well as my own personal power rankings, have them inside the Top 10. Thus, despite being a relatively large favorite here, I believe there's some value on the Zags. They've beaten tonight's opponent, San Diego, 18 straight times here in Spokane. How about one more? 

San Diego actually brings some legit credentials into this year's first of two meetings. The Toreros are #1 in the COUNTRY in defending the three-point line and hold opponents to just 39.3% shooting overall (14th). That said, they just allowed 82 pts in a win over Loyola Marymount Saturday, the most points they'd given up in regulation all season. The 89-82 win was a bit of a misleading final as they led by 23 at halftime and by 15 w/ just 80 seconds remaining. Still though, the defensive numbers have to be a concern now that they're going up against an offense that is 5th nationally in FG% (51.2) and makes more than nine three-pointers per game. Here at home, Gonzaga averages a whopping 92 PPG. 

Like USD, Gonzaga dominated by more than final score indicated in their last game. The 'Zags were leading San Francisco by double digits w/ just over six minutes remaining on Saturday, but had to hold on as the Dons cut it to a three-point game. Gonzaga is now 0-5 ATS its L5 games, including a SU loss to St. Mary's, with none of the four wins coming by a margin greater than 16 points. But, their first five WCC victories did come by an average of 35 PPG. I think that the Bulldogs "get back on track" tonight and do what they usually do to San Diego - that's rout them. The last four matchups, all Gonzaga wins and covers, have been decided by 36, 22, 36 and 58 points. That's an average margin of victory of 38 points per game! 8* Gonzaga

10* Wisconsin (8:30 ET): I've talked about this before, but outside of Purdue and Michigan State (two legit Final Four contenders), I'm not entirely sure if we can be certain anyone else in the Big 10 is any real threat. Ohio State has definitely stepped up, but I don't think for a second that the Buckeyes are going to make a deep NCAA Tourney run. The current state of things in the conference has to have both Northwestern and Wisconsin (who meet tonight) "feeling blue." Off their 1st Tournament appearance EVER, N'western came into the season ranked in the top 25. But they've been one of the bigger disappointments as they're only 13-10 SU overall and off a 47-point "effort" at Michigan. I'll be fading the Wildcats tonight.

It's almost one year to the day that N'western came here to Madison and beat Wisconsin, 66-59 as 11.5-pt dogs (happened Feb 2, 2017). The Badgers would get their revenge in the Big 10 Tournament, winning 76-48. But what's interesting here is N'western has not won in Madison, in consecutive seasons, since 1969-70! In fact, before winning two of their last three visits here, they'd dropped 14 in a row from 1997-2012. Tonight marks their third consecutive road game overall and it comes right in the middle of a "Michigan sandwich." The Wildcats will get their shot at revenge against the Wolverines (for the aformentioned loss) this Saturday. Monday saw them shoot just 38% as they failed to hold an early 19-11 lead on the road.

Wisconsin is also off a loss, although at home. It's not just one loss the Badgers are looking to bounce back from, however. They come into tonight on a three-game losing skid and are just 1-6 SU their previous 7 games. They were actually -3.5 vs. Nebraska on Monday (full disclosure: I had them), but it was not to be as the Badgers blew a double-digit 2H lead. They scored only eight points over the game's final nine minutes as the Cornhuskers threw a 1-3-1 zone at them (unlikely wrinkle). Going 16 of 31 from the FT line, including nine misses in the 2H certainly didn't help matters either. But in taking the double digit lead, the Badgers showed me they are more than capable of "holding court" against a team like Northwestern. The Wildcats are just 2-6 SU on the road (-8.5 PPG) and 1-7 SU when priced as an underdog (-13.9 PPG). 10* Wisconsin

10* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres, by just about any objective measure, should be considered the weakest team in the entire Eastern Conference. They have the fewest points (37) and worst goal differential (-51), though Ottawa is "closing in" in both regards. So, it's certainly a bit "eye opening" to find them at essentially "even money" on the ML tonight. Of course, that must mean they're at home (they are!) and the opponent must be pretty weak as well (they are!). Florida enters this game as another "also-ran" in the Atlantic Division, and had dropped three straight before beating the Islanders, 4-1, on Tuesday. I don't see them winning B2B road games as - overall - they're just 9-17 SU away from South Beach this season. 

Meanwhile, Buffalo had actually won three in a row before losing its last game. The entirety of that three-game win streak came in Western Canada as they swept a trip through Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, even beating the final two - both - in shutout fashion. But then they returned home on Tuesday and lost to the Devils 3-1. There's been no real home ice advantage to speak of for the Sabres as they're just 6-13-3 here and being outscored by over a goal per game. That being said, this isn't a bad matchup w/ it being their second straight here while Florida is in the second of B2B roadies. Listening to the players, it seems as if there's a real emphasis being placed on this game. "We want to bring that hockey that we showed we can play out west to this arena and for our fans," said Jake McCabe. There have been line changes, hinted at in practice, as well.

Florida has some goaltending issues right now, namely in terms of depth. Both Roberto Luongo and James Reimer are out due to injury. That leaves 28-year old rookie Harri Sateri as the only real option between the pipes. Sateri performed admirably in picking up his 1st career win Tuesday night, making 32 saves, but this is a goaltender w/ just four career starts and an .899 save percentage. The Panthers are 1-8 SU this season following a win by 2+ goals. Another thing to consider is the # of shots they tend to allow (36.6 L5 games), the highest number in the league this season. Sabres goalie Robin Lehner is in good enough form as he was the one that posted both shutouts Western Canada. 10* Buffalo

analysis soon

10* Valparaiso (8:00 ET): When Valpo moved from the Horizon League to the Missouri Valley, finishing in last place is obviously not what they had in mind. Remember that the Crusaders finished tied for 1st in the Horizon last season. But they've won only 2 of 10 games in their new conference this season w/ the last one coming exactly three weeks ago. Both wins were at home, however, and against better teams than what they'll face tonight. Indiana State has also fallen below .500 overall on the year having dropped B2B games. The Sycamores are also traditionally a very bad road team (8-26 SU L34) while Valpo is still 39-6 SU its last 45 games. Therefore, I'll gladly lay this short number. 

Valpo's very first MVC game was against Indiana State and they lost 73-64 in Terre Haute. Their struggles weren't known back then, but still it's interesting to note the Crusaders were slight (as in one-point) favorites in that game. That makes this price look like a real value by comparison. The difference in the game was ISU going 10 of 18 from three-point range and also having 12 more FT attempts. I don't think either of those things will repeat themselves in this rematch. Valpo is much better defensively here at home, giving up an average of just 61.8 PPG on the year w/ opponents shooting just 37.9% overall and 28.2% from three-point range. Thus, it's not a real surprise that they're 7-3 SU here.

Speaking of three-point shooting, Valpo couldn't "buy one" Saturday at Illinois State as they missed their 14 attempts from behind the arc and finished 3 of 19 in a game they never led. Obviously, there's no way they'll play - or shoot - that poorly again. Meanwhile, Indiana State just lost to a Bradley team that had previously not won on the conference road. A key to me here is Valpo is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS when favored this season. So they typically take care of business when they're supposed to. They didn't the first time they faced the Sycamores, but I don't see a season sweep taking place here.  10* Valparaiso

8* Syracuse (8:00 ET): As is an annual case, Syracuse finds itself firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble as we head into February. That's what happens when you never play any "true" road games on the non-conference slate, thereby "inflating" the won-loss record, which then inevitably takes a hit once the far more challenging ACC schedule hits. Right now, the Orange have won three straight to get to 15-6 straight up. But of those three wins, two were against Pitt (winless in ACC play) and the other vs. Boston College. Preceeding the current win streak was a four-game losing skid (every loss close). Fortunately for Jim Boeheim, his team will be facing another conference lightweight tonight, that being Ga Tech. This is a game the Orange "can't lose" and I don't think they will. 

Ga Tech has lost four in a row, three of those coming by double digits. The last one, Sunday at home vs. Clemson, was decided by only two points. That was a tough one for the Yellow Jackets as the game wasn't decided until the closing seconds. While competing hard against a ranked team (Clemson #18) looks good on paper, there is no denying that the Yellow Jackets are in poor form right now. They play good defense, but Syracuse is even better on that end of the floor. Also, there's the fact Syracuse won LY's lone matchup, 90-61 at the Carrier Dome. Ga Tech shot just 5 of 20 from three-point range in that game as they couldn't solve the zone defense. I don't see them solving it here either.

Syracuse actually ranks just outside the top 10 (11th) in defensive efficiency nationally. That should serve them well moving forward. Now they are short-handed coming into tonight as the Howard Washington injury leaves them w/ potentially a six-man rotation. Good thing then that for a fourth straight game they are facing a team in the bottom five in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets rank 324th (out of 351 teams) in points per game. Syracuse doesn't shoot the ball particularly well either, but they are 4-0 ATS this season after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game. And as far as the schedule goes, the Orange have played only five games against teams w/ losing records (Ga Tech is 10-11 SU) and won them all. 8* Syracuse

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Despite dropping B2B games, Philadelphia actually moved UP in my personal power rankings this week. That movement is largely owed to blowing out the Spurs at the start of this four-game trip, which ends tonight in Brooklyn. A third road game in four nights (and fourth in six) is never an ideal spot, but is particularly troublesome for a team unaccustomed to a price range such as this one. Therefore, this is a pretty clear fade for me. Now Brooklyn just concluded its own road trip w/ a loss to the Knicks last night. It was their fourth loss in a row and 10th in the last 13 games. But, that being said, the Nets are a much better team at home and have also covered 13 of 17 times this season when facing an opponent that averages 106 or more points per game. Take the points.

The first two (one win, one loss) of the Nets' five game trip were both decided by one point. It concluded w/ three consecutive double digit defeats. That's what has created the value here as the Nets are better than what they showed against Milwaukee, Minnesota and New York. An 0-4 record vs. the Knicks this season is a bit curious and in the case of last night, it was a bad first half and three-point shooting that determined the final result. While the Nets were 9 of 36 from behind the arc last night, the Knicks were 13 of 26. This is the 1st meeting of the year w/ Philadelphia. So while an 0-9 (straight up) record vs. division opponents is worrisome, it's not really applicable here.

Despite the three straight DD defeats, Brooklyn is still 25-15 ATS as an underdog this year. The Sixers are obviously not road favorites, particularly of this size, all that often. Tonight marks just the eighth instance of them having to lay points away from home this season. One thing that I think works to the underdog's advantage here is that Philly plays at a pretty similar (uptempo) pace. While the Sixers absolutely will improve upon their hideous 2 of 26 three-point shooting from the last game, they also allow over 108 PPG on the road this season. I just don't see them scoring enough to compensate for that and an outright loss certainly wouldn't surprise me either. 8* Brooklyn 

8* Iowa (9:00 ET): Both of these Big 10 squads are really struggling right now. Minnesota has lost six of seven - both straight up and against the spread. That's after a 13-3 SU start. Iowa has dropped six of eight and never really even got "out of the box" this season. They're also just 2-6 ATS in those eight games. So something will have to give tonight in Carver-Hawkeye. As discussed yday, the Big 10 is pretty top heavy. I see this being only a four-bid league in March. The only team Iowa is ahead of right now is Illinois and that could change w/ another loss. One thing the Hawkeyes can do is score as they average 84.0 PPG at home. They did win their last home game, 85-67 over Wisconsin, and I think they win this one as well. Lay the short number. 

It's been a tumultuous season for Minnesota w/ the Reggie Lynch situation and I don't think it's any coincidence that things have hit the skids since that came to light. Four of their last six losses have been by double digits. They just lost at home to Northwestern, 77-69. exactly one week ago. They had the weekend off, but I doubt that can cure what ails them. The Gophers have a real depth issue right now, which was apparent down the stretch vs. Northwestern when they blew a double digit lead. HC Richard Pitino has already had to use five different starting lineups in 10 conference games. Who knows what he'll trot out tonight?

Iowa gave up 98 points in its last game, a loss at Nebraska. They allowed the Cornhuskers to shoot 57.7% overall, including 11 of 19 from three-point range. Nebraska also got to attempt 36 free throws. No way Minnesota approaches any of those numbers tonight. After all, the Gophers are shooting less than 40% in conference play! Iowa shoots 50% at home and if they can play their style of game, they should win this one going away. 8* Iowa 

10* Under Thunder/Wizards (7:05 ET): John Wall is unlikely to play here for the Wizards as that definitely puts them at a disadvantage when facing a talented team like the Thunder. However, even at full strength, I'm not too sure I'd trust OKC either in this spot. They are a money-burning 16-27 ATS as a favorite this season w/ 19 outright losses. If not for the Cavs, that record would look a lot worse. One thing is for sure and that's Thunder games have been a lot more high scoring of late. They've gone Over in five straight and those games have averaged an astounding 237 PPG. But I certainly look for that number to start coming down. One of those games, a 121-112 win, came against these Wizards. But I look for the rematch to be a lot more low scoring. Take the Under.

The O/U line has been raised significantly from last week's meeting in OKC. That game saw a really high scoring second half as the Thunder led 54-40 at halftime. Russell Westbrook finished w/ 46 points (season high) and the fourth quarter was particularly ridiculous as the teams combined for 77 points (39-38 Thunder). Westbrook isn't likely to match that point total tonight. Note he's been taking fewer three pointers of late. Speaking of the three-point line, Washington went 16 of 35 from behind the arc in that game. Don't look for a repeat of that either here tonight.

Washington bounced back from the loss to OKC by beating Atlanta 129-104 over the weekend. Despite not having Wall, they assisted on 40 of their 49 field goals made. But the Hawks are a bad team and the Thunder won't be scored on as easily. Something you may not know about the Thunder is that they rank sixth in the league in offensive efficiency. The Wiz had a very up and down road trip (five games). Yes, they shot 57.6% against the Hawks, but that was also two games after they shot 30.6% and scored only 75 pts in a loss to Dallas. They'll end up somewhere in between tonight. Defensively, I expect them to start improving as well. They've allowed an average of 113.6 PPG the L5 games, which is noticeably above their season long average. This would rank on the high end of O/U lines for both teams, looking at the broad spectrum for the season. 10* Under Thunder/Wizards

10* Under Wild/Blue Jackets (7:05 ET): Neither of these teams are happy where they're at coming out of the All-Star Break as both find themselves on the fringe of playoff participation. Columbus is a tenuous second in the Metro, tied w/ Pittsburgh, but just one point ahead of two others and two points ahead of two more. Four of those six teams will likely make the postseason, we just don't know which ones yet and given the Blue Jackets' YTD goal differential (-6), they're far from a "lock" at this point. Over in the Western Conference, Minnesota is one of four teams currently tied for the final Wild Card spot w/ 57 points. In this first game back, I like the Under tonight. 

The Wild are not a great road team. They're 17-4-4 on home ice, but just 9-14-1 otherwise. Their goal scoring predictably goes down on the road (2.6 gpg), although at the same time they do give up 3.7 gpg. Goalie Devan Dubnyk hasn't been nearly as effective as he was last season. Dubnyk did not have a strong effort in the final game before the Break as he allowed four goals on 21 shots vs. Pittsburgh, before getting pulled. But I'm pretty confident he'll bounce back here w/ the benefit of time off. Also, it sure does help that Columbus is 29th in the league in goals per game as well as dead last (31st) on the power play. It's an ideal opponent for a struggling goaltender. 

The Blue Jackets are 7-2 Under in the month of January, not a surprise given the offensive rankings listed above. It also helps to have Sergei Bobrovsky, who has been very good at home this year w/ a .933 save percentage. Bobrovsky made 38 saves in the team's 2-1 win over Arizona last Thursday. Offensively, the Blue Jackets have not topped three goals in regulation in any game this month. I expect a slow start to this game as both sides try to get back into the "groove." 10* Under Wild/Blue Jackets

10* Wisconsin (9:00 ET): As top heavy as the Big 10 is this year, it sure is strange not to see Wisconsin in - or anywhere near - the mix. The Badgers have declined significantly from their "heyday" under HC Bo Ryan as this Greg Gard coached team is banged up and floundering at 10-12 SU overall. Last week brought not one, but two double digit defeats - at the hands of Iowa and Michigan State - although both were on the road. Tonight, the Badgers return to Madison and are slight favorites over a Nebraska team desperate to strengthen its somewhat weak resume. The Cornhuskers are 16-8 SU overall, but not really considered a legit at-large candidate for the Big Dance in March. This is a revenge game for Wisconsin as they lost by four down in Lincoln earlier this month. 

Only five Big 10 teams currently have winning records in conference play and Nebraska is one of them at 7-4 SU. The Cornuskers' four conference losses have all come against fellow teams w/ winning records. Three of them have been by single digits, the lone exception taking place at Michigan State back on Dec 3 when they lost by 29. Two of their non-conf losses were to Kansas and Creighton and it's been an inability to beat any of the top teams on the schedule that likely precludes them from at-large consideration. They're also 12-1 SU at home, but only 2-6 SU on the road (including neutral site games). They have been a bit of a covering machine lately, going 8-1 ATS in January, so it will seem "odd" to some that they are the underdog here.

When Wisconsin lost down in Lincoln earlier this month, the big key was the free throw line. Going only 4 of 10 from the charity stripe is really bad and made even worse by the fact Nebraska was 21 of 28. That was basically the difference in the game. Injuries have also really derailed the Badgers' season. They badly miss both Kobe King and D'Mitrik Trice, both of whom are done for the season. However, in Madison, I still believe they are worth a shot - particularly in this price range. Nebraska won't shoot the ball as well as they did Saturday (57%) against Iowa. Nor will Wisconsin shoot as poorly as they did Friday at Michigan State (36.2%). Also, the one extra day to prepare is key for the home team here. 10* Wisconsin

10* Over Heat/Mavericks (8:35 ET): By today's standards, this is a really low total for a NBA game. Rarely do we see an O/U line sub-200 pts anymore. Of course, it's not like this instance isn't w/o some justification as neither Miami nor Dallas is any kind of offensive juggernaut, plus - tempo-wise - both teams play at some of the slowest paces in the entire league (going by # of possessions per game). The Heat's last three games have all season both they and their opponent fail to score 100 pts. The Mavs have gone four consecutive games w/o hitting the century mark themselves. That all being said, the number is too low and I'm going Over. Both teams' total PPG average for the season exceeds the O/U line here.

Miami had lost two in a row, one of them to lowly Sacramento, before beating Charlotte Saturday night by a score of 95-91. It was a game where they had to rally from 15 down despite holding the Hornets (who could be cursed) to just 34.5% shooting for the game. The Heat outscored them 24-13 in the fourth quarter. I have my doubts about this Heat team considering they have a negative point differential despite being 28-21 SU overall. Looking at this game in a vaccum, however, I just can't see it being as low-scoring as the L3 games, all of which had O/U lines of 200.5 or higher. Again, four straight games of neither side scoring 100+ pts is very rare in today's game. I can't see it happening here for Miami.

Dallas started the season right near the bottom in offensive efficiency. They have improved though, now ranking a solid 17th in that category. However, they haven't shot the ball well recently and are 6-1 Under the L7 games. Their last game was just the opposite of Miami's as they blew a fourth quarter lead in Denver and lost 91-89. The Mavs have now scored 98, 97, 93 and 89 pts the last four games. Similar to the Heat (and you can call this the "just due" factor if you'd like), I just can't see such a string of low-scoring performances continuing. When these teams met for the 1st time this season, the final score was 113-101 (in favor of Miami) as both teams shot better than 50 percent and the Heat were at a ridiculous 63.9%. While they won't be that hot (pun intended!) this time around, that will be counteracted by the fact the first matchup saw just 17 free throw attempts - total! That number could easily double this time around. 10* Over Heat/Mavs

8* The Citadel (6:00 ET): Let's get it right out in the open that The Citadel is not a good team as you don't get to be a home dog of this magnitude by playing quality basketball over any period of time. Of course, the other side typically has to be pretty good as well and sure enough East Tennessee State is one of 10 teams nationally to be 7-0 SU or better in conference play. The SoCon leaders enter this game at 9-0 SU in conference play, 17-3 SU overall and inside my top 75 overall. That said, this spread is still too high. It's the Buccaneers second road game in a three-day span, plus it'll be just the third time in conference play that they've been asked to lay double digits. Take the points. 

Last year's two meetings did not go well for The Citadel as they lost by 21 and 44 points. But at least they come into this tussle w/ a little bit of "momentum." That stems from an outright win (on the road!) Saturday over Mercer as 16-pt underdogs. The Bulldogs scored 51 pts in the 2H to claim the two-point win, 76-74, snapping a 13-game series losing streak to the Bears. At one point, The Citadel went on a 26-3 run, enabling them to overcome a halftime deficit and take a comfortable lead themselves. Now, the question is how do they follow up? They've only won B2B games one time all season, but a SU win is probably out of the question anyway. However, I'll point to the fact the Bulldogs are only being outscored by about six points per game over the course of the year and have never been a home dog of more than 15 pts the L3 seasons!

East Tennessee State has not lost since 12.16 at Xavier when they only fell by two points. They're ripped off 12 straight wins since and the majority of them have not been close. Yet, their PPG differential for the year is "only" +11.9 per game. They've been a bit of a covering machine so far as a 13-3-2 ATS record is the best win percentage in the country at the betting window among teams that have played at least four lined games. But the only two times they've been a double digit favorite in conference play were at home and this will be only the third time in the L3 seasons that they have been asked to lay 12.5 or more on the road. One of the previous two was here last season, but I just don't see a blowout taking place again tonight. 8* The Citadel

10* Toronto (6:05 ET): The Lakers come into tonight having won four consecutive games - all as underdogs. I was on them in their last win, a matchup w/ Chicago that I thought was badly mispriced. LA won that one 108-103 as four-point pups. That followed wins over Indiana, New York and Boston, all of which were at home. Now its second straight road game and North of the Border against a Raptors team eager to take the floor after suffering a rare home defeat. Toronto fell to 17-4 SU on its home floor w/ a loss to Utah on Friday. It was a poor offensive effort as they scored only 93 pts on 38.9% shooting. Fortunately here, they'll be taking on a team that gives up 112 PPG on the road. Lay the points.

The Raptors are still #5 in the league in offensive efficiency and average 112.1 PPG at home. So, again, I expect a real bounce back effort on the offensive end of the floor. Three of their four home losses have come this month, but all were by four points or less. This team is also playing pretty good defense lately, holding four of the previous five opponents below 100 points. Those five opponents have shot barely over 40% against them. The Lakers have shot nearly 50% from the floor their last five games, something I do not see being maintained. 

Toronto has beaten the Lakers five straight times, including 101-92 back in late October at Staples Center. It was a six-point spread for that matchup, so it looks like we're getting some real decent value on the favorite in the rematch. The Lakers last two wins have both been close, so this isn't exactly a dominant run that they're on.They are still a 7-15 SU team on the road and remember that Lonzo Ball remains out (indefinitely) w/ a sore left knee. 10* Toronto

10* Clemson (6:00 ET): Clemson is off a humiliating 61-36 loss here, but it was to Virginia and right now the Hoos are making a lot of teams look bad. It's a severe drop in class in terms of opponent for the Tigers here as they go from facing the best team in the ACC to one of the conference's weaker teams. Georgia Tech has lost three in a row, a streak that began when Virginia held them to only 48 pts. Since then, the Yellow Jackets have dropped a couple road games - at North Carolina and Florida State. All three losses have been by double digits. In spite of their Virginia result, I still view Clemson as potentially a Top 25 team. This is a short number to lay and I'll play accordingly. 

It's important to note that Clemson has not lost B2B games this season. They opened 14-1 SU and have since alternated wins and losses. All three ACC losses have come on the road, one of them by a single point at North Carolina State. (They also lost at North Carolina, in addition to Virginia). As a favorite, they are 11-2 straight up and 8-5 against the spread. I find it almost impossible to believe their field goal percentage won't increase dramatically from the last game when they shot just 31.6% against Virginia. For the year, they are shooting 47.3% from the field. 

Georgia Tech usually does a decent job of defending, but the last game saw them allow 88 pts on nearly 60 percent shooting. That was to Florida State, who is a pretty comparable team to Clemson in terms of where I have them ranked nationally. Believe it or not, but a win here and Clemson would be tied w/ Duke for third place in the ACC. Georgia Tech resides near the bottom, with only two teams - Wake Forest and Pitt - having fewer wins. The Yellow Jackets have upset Clemson twice in the previous two seasons, so this isn't a game the Tigers will take lightly. 10* Clemson 

8* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): It's certainly not been your typical season in Cedar Falls where Northern Iowa comes in near the bottom of the Missouri Valley, ahead of only conference newbie Valparaiso. Here, the Panthers travel to play the 1st place team in the MVC, Loyola Chicago, which is NOT something I thought I'd be saying before the start of the season. Yet the Ramblers are 17-4 SU overall (7-2 SU vs. MVC). They come into Sunday on a six-game SU and ATS win streak. Interesting is how they've had Northern Iowa's number the past few seasons, going not only 5-0 ATS against them, but 4-1 straight up as well. But they were the favorite in only one of those five games. Earlier this season, they went to Cedar Falls and pulled an upset, 56-50, as five-point dogs. 

Northern Iowa at one point had lost seven in a row and didn't cover a single spread during that time. However, more recently, they've "righted the ship" a bit by winning three of their last four. Earlier in the week, they won at home, 83-72 over Illinois State as 6.5-pt favorites. Their last three wins have all been at home while they still don't have a "true" road win to speak of this season. But let's note the Panthers have outscored their opponents over the course of the season. They are allowing only 62.2 PPG and that should be enough to keep them in any contest. This is the most points they've gotten against any opponent since facing Villanova back in November. 

Loyola has been favored by more than two points just twice during this 6-0 SU/ATS run. Admittedly, they just destroyed Drake, winning on the road by a score of 80-57. What's amazing about that final score is the Ramblers were actually trailing at halftime! In fact, with 9:19 left in the game, the score was tied 51-51. From that point forward, it was all Loyola obviously as they'd go on a 22-2 run and end up shooting 56.7% for the game. I don't see that being repeated today. Yes, the Ramblers did beat Florida back when the Gators were ranked #5 in the country and thus deserve to be taken quite seriously. But, to me, this sets up as a game where we're going to get UNI's best and that should be enough for at least the cover. 8* Northern Iowa

8* Wake Forest (8:00 ET): Tip your cap to the job being done by David Padgett at Louisville as this season easily could have gone off the rails given the embarrassing way it started w/ Rick Pitino having to leave in disgrace. Padgett has the Cardinals at 15-5 SU coming into today, but the squad is off a loss (in overtime) earlier in the week. They fell to Miami 78-75 in what was quite the competitive affair. Full disclosure: I was on Miami there and did not get the cover as the Hurricanes were 4.5-pt favorites. Laying points to what is - on paper - pretty clearly an inferior ACC foe becomes a dangerous spot, however. Wake Forest is coming off games vs. Virginia and Duke and certainly won't be intimidated. Take the points.

At the betting window, these squads have been trending in very different directions. While Louisville is 6-1 ATS its last seven games, Wake Forest has failed to cover six in a row (also 0-6 SU). It's not as if the Demon Deacons haven't been competitive though. Only two of those six losses came by a margin greater than 10 pts and both were vs. Duke. They also lost by only four at North Carolina earlier in the year. Turnovers really hurt WF Tuesday at home vs. Duke as they committed 21 of them. It also didn't help that they were just 5 of 20 from the three-point line. They did outrebound Duke though and will have a chance to do the same to L'ville, who was outrebounded by Miami Wednesday.

The recent ATS records are a little misleading in my estimation. We've already been over how Wake Forest may not be covering, but they're not getting blown out either. With Louisville, it's just the opposite. They may be covering, but they're hardly blowing teams out. Four of their five ACC wins have been by eight pts or fewer, the exception coming against last place Pitt. With two teams having recent stretches of close games, it just seems logical to take the points. Wake Forest won LY's only meeting (in Winston-Salem). Louisville, to this point, has avoided all of the ACC heavyweights, so I take their conference record w/ a grain of salt. As for Wake, they've already played Duke, North Carolina and Virginia a total of four times. 8* Wake Forest

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The Hornets continued to prove (at least to me!) that they are better than their record w/ a double-digit win over Atlanta last night. (I also won w/ the Over on that game!). That may not sound like much, but it continues the fact that this team has outscored its opponents this season despite a 20-27 SU record. Now the road has been unkind w/ a 6-13 SU record, but note they're only being outscored in those games by 1.5 PPG! On the flip side, we have a Miami team that is 27-21 SU despite being outscored by its opponents. The Heat are only 12-10 SU at home and that comes w/ a negative point differential as well. These two division foes are a lot closer than what the standings say and thus I'm taking the points. 

Really, what accounts for the difference in the standings between these two is the fact Miami is 3-0 SU/ATS in head to head play. All three wins have been by five points or fewer w/ the last one coming by a single point. That last meeting took place in Charlotte exactly one week ago and the Hornets came in w/ a massive scheduling edge as they'd been off the previous two days while Miami was playing the second night of a back to back (off a loss to Brooklyn) and for a fourth time in five days. That loss is part of a historically inept 0-14 SU record in games decided by three points or less over the L2 seasons for Charlotte. Eventually, that record is going to shoot up to the mean.

Since beating the Hornets last Saturday, the Heat have lost two in a row and averaged only 89 pts in doing so. Monday's loss in Houston came at the end of a long road trip and thus can certainly be excused. But losing at home to Sacramento is bad, no matter how you want to slice it. Miami blew a 12-pt fourth quarter lead to the worst team in the league. As a favorite this season, the Heat are only 7-13 ATS. Consider that Charlotte has lost only four times in the New Year and three of those have been by five points or less. I still believe the Hornets have a run in them! 10* Charlotte

10* Dayton (4:00 ET): The Atlantic 10 "ain't what it used to be" as right now Rhode Island is running away with things. Other than the Rams, there may not be another NCAA Tourney team in the field, unless someone is able to win the Conf Tourney that is. Certainly, the two teams in question here have no other option than cutting down the nets next month at Barclays Center. Dayton is who I'm looking at in this one as they are coming off a one-point win over Davidson on Tuesday. Their opponent, St. Louis, is off a one-point home loss to VCU. Those razor thin margins really don't mean much as - clearly - either team could very easily be off a win or loss. But Dayton has so thoroughly dominated the Billikens in recent years, that I can't look past that. Take the points.

Note that the final margin over Davidson got to one only when the Wildcats made a "meaningless" three-pointer w/ 3.3 seconds remaining. I use the word meaningless in quotes b/c that basket actually cost Dayton the cover (were -2!). The Flyers have now failed to cover three in a row, the other two games being double digit losses to Rhode Island and St. Joe's. Maybe that one win over Davidson doesn't impress you, but it should as the Wildcats are a top 25 nationally in offensive efficiency and Dayton held them to just 64 pts. The Flyers certainly have had no issue defending St. Louis recently, sweeping the previous two season series, never giving up more than 63 pts in any of the four meetings. Three of the wins have come by at least 20 points. 

St. Louis is right w/ Dayton in the middle of the A-10, but is one game worse in the conference standings and has one more loss overall. However, the latest loss may be a difficult one to "get over" as the game w/ VCU went to overtime and saw the Billikens blow a halftime lead. Not only that, but the game only went to OT after VCU hit a three-pointer at the end of regulation. Suffering such a deflating loss can certainly have an effect on a team its next time out, especially one as mediocre as this. The Billikens were going for their third straight victory when they met VCU as they'd previously beaten Duquesne and UMass. A key here is St. Louis is just 1-4 SU/ATS the L5x it has been a home favorite of three points or less. 10* Dayton

8* Duke (2:00 ET): What a matchup we have here as two of the top five teams in the country square off. In my own opinion, there are five teams better than the rest of the field this season - the other three being Villanova, Purdue and Michigan State. So this is a rare time I actually agree w/ the pollsters. Virginia has yet to lose an ACC game as they come into Saturday at 18-1 SU overall (8-0 ACC), that lone loss coming in Morgantown, WV. That, not coincidentally was the only other time before today that they had been an underdog all season. This game taking place in Cameron Indoor is huge for Duke, who is 10-0 SU at home this year with the margin of victory approaching 30 points per game! Lay the points. 

Coming into Saturday, there are still 12 teams that own conference records of 7-0 (SU) or better. Running your entire conference slate is difficult to do, so targeting some of these teams might be a prudent manuever over the next month. In the case of Virginia, they are rolling. They've covered six of their last seven games, the only exception being a seven-point win over Syracuse. All other wins have come by double digits. The last one may have been the most impressive of all. They beat Clemson, the 18th ranked team in the country mind you, 61-36. Yes, you read that correctly. The Hoos held Clemson to 36 points on 31.7% shooting. They did so w/o their best defender, Isaiah Wilkins. Even more impressive is that UVA actually trailed 23-16 in the first half. But Clemson would score just 13 points over the game's final 26 1/2 minutes! 

However, keeping Duke in check in going to be a much taller order. The Blue Devils rank #2 in the country in offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and average 91.6 PPG. At home, they are averaging 96 PPG! So, clearly, something will have to give here. Being that the game is in Durham, I just have to favor Duke. They have scored at least 80 pts in 16 consecutive games. I doubt they'll be able to hit that threshold this afternoon, but they will clearly be the top test Virginia has faced all season. Now the same could be said the other way as well, but Duke is 11-3 SU all-time in top 5 matchups here at home. This is also Virginia's third straight road game and they may be w/o Wilkins again. 8* Duke

8* Baylor (12:00 ET): Today's slate is chock full of Big 12 vs. SEC matchups, an annual event to determine "conference superiority." I can't imagine that you'd get any arguement that the Big 12 isn't the deeper of the two leagues in 2018. Yet, Baylor finds itself as a pretty substantial underdog today at Florida. That probably has a lot to do w/ the fact the Bears have dropped B2B games as well as four of their past five. However, be aware that three of those losses were by seven points or less. As for Florida, they too are off a loss, here in Gainesville to South Carolina as 10.5-pt favorites on Wednesday. Baylor also has a bit of a "hidden edge" here in that they've had two extra days to prepare. I'm taking the points. 

 Last we saw Baylor was Monday as they hosted Kansas State and lost as a small favorite, 90-83. That was a crippling loss as it dropped the Bears to 2-6 SU in Big XII play while at the same time strengthening Kansas State's own NCAA Tournament resume. A win here might be needed for the Bears to impress the selection committee as they're tied for last in the conference. But they did go 10-2 SU vs. the non-conference, including a win over Creighton. Their only non-conf losses were to Xavier and Wichita State. Baylor is a lock to play better defensively tonight than they did on Monday where they allowed K-State to shoot over 57% from the field. Remember, despite that insane percentage, they still only lost by seven. Over the L3 seasons, the Bears are 9-1 ATS after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. 

Florida was perhaps "still celebrating" (its big win at Kentucky last Saturday) when it got upset by South Carolina on Wednesday. Though they led by nine early in the second half, the Gators had no answer for the Gamecocks going 11 of 21 from three-point range. Defending the three-point line has been an issue all season for Florida as they rank dead last in the SEC in that department and a woeful 296th in the country. After climbing into the Top 25 this week, look for it to be a short stay for the Gators. 8* Baylor

10* Oakland (9:00 ET): Valparaiso's defection to the Missouri Valley left a huge void atop the Horizona League entering the year and, right now, two teams are looking to fill it. Both Wright State and Northern Kentucky have started 7-1 SU in conference play w/ the latter's lone loss coming to the former. But we're targeting the Norse here tonight as they host Oakland in what is a revenge spot for the underdog. Oakland was the betting favorite (three points) in the first meeting, at home, which they lost 87-83. Much has changed since that time. Namely, NKU has emerged as a top team in the Horizon w/ the only loss coming to Wright State on Jan 11 (were -10.5 in that game). For Oakland, the loss to NKU was the middle game of what would end up being a three-game skid. But they've since rallied to win four straight coming into tonight. Take the points.

For both teams, this is the first time taking the court since Saturday. Oakland won on the road, beating Detroit 92-86 as nine-point chalk. Leading scorer Kendrick Nunn poured in a career-best 38 pts (8th game w/ 30+ this season!) and the Golden Grizzlies led 50-29 at the half. Northern Kentucky also won on the road, beating Green Bay 77-65 as 11-pt chalk. They too enjoyed a lead larger than the final score most of the way. Both teams are off B2B road wins here, but the fact Oakland is playing a third straight away from home is counteracted by the fact this is also just their third game in 14 days. Northern Kentucky played three games last week.

In the season's first meeting, Oakland led at halftime (47-41) and shot the ball well (52.8%). Looking at the numbers, it's actually pretty tough to explain how the Golden Grizzlies lost! They were outrebounded pretty severely, 38-25, and that obviously led to more second chance pts for NKU. But other than that, it was an even game. Oakland has averaged 85.4 points over the L5 games, making them quite dangerous in the underdog role. Tonight actually marks the 1st time they've been a dog - all season - in Horizon League play! They are also 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons when taking the court on five or six days rest. 10* Oakland

10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): I still am not one to "believe in the Bulls," particularly as a favorite. As I've discussed previously, the second quarter of the season went dramatically different for Chicago compared to the first. The team opened the season by going 3-20 SU its first 23 games, but over the next 23, they turned in a pretty impressive 15-8 SU record. But it speaks to just how poor those first 23 games were that they still rank 3rd from the bottom in net efficiency for the season, ahead of only Phoenix and Sacramento. I would expect the third quarter of the season to be better than the first, but also worse than the second. Sure enough, they come into tonight off B2B losses, the last one being an instance where I successfully played against them. I'll do it again here.

The Lakers will be the visitors in the Windy City this evening and they arrive on a three-game win streak. So much for LaVar Ball and his stupid comments about Luke Walton! The Lakers have pulled three consecutive upsets, granted all at home, but the last one came against Boston in a national TV showdown. Now you might say that a letdown could be in order, but be aware that they've had the last two days off. The win over the Celtics was stunning in the sense that the Lakers were able to score 30+ points in each of the final three quarters against arguably the top defensive team in the league. They would have won by a greater margin than one point if not for some pretty bad free throw shooting (especially down the stretch). LA isn't bad defensively in its own right, ranking 11th in efficiency.

The defensive end could prove to be the difference here as both teams rank in the bottom three in offensive efficiency. But Chicago is only 25th on defense. That gap played out in the season's first meeting, a 103-94 LA win at home. The Lakers actually rallied back from a 14-pt halftime deficit in that one. I don't see them falling into any kind of similar hole tonight. Chicago is playing its fourth game in seven nights and one of those previous three (Monday at New Orleans) went into double overtime. Returning home after a three-game trip may very well have them in the worse spot and I just wouldn't want to lay points w/ a team that has been favored only seven times previously this season. 10* LA Lakers

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): Because of all their playoff shortcomings, the Raptors are probably never going to the amount of respect they truly deserve. Now, that could change were they to make some sort of run this year. Cleveland is down and I happen to think they (meaning Toronto) are better than Boston. So it could happen. Over the previous two seasons, it's Toronto, not Cleveland or Boston, that has posted the best net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference. For a team that is 17-3 SU at home w/ an impressive point differential to boot, tonight's line sure looks a little low given they're playing a sub-.500 foe in its third road game in five nights. I'll gladly lay the points "North of the Border."

Utah is the visitor I alluded to and they are in off a minor upset of Detroit Wednesday night. But let's remember that the Pistons are struggling - mightily - of late and the game before that saw the Jazz lose to lowly Atlanta. Utah plays at one of the slowest tempos in the league and is not coincidentally one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. Unless they are able to slow down the tempo tremendously, I think they simply lack the firepower to keep up tonight. It's not as if the Jazz are a good road team; their record away from home is 6-19 straight up and they're getting outscored by 6.4 points per game. And most teams aren't as good at home as Toronto is. The Raptors are 17-3 SU at the Air Canada Center w/ a point differential of +11.6 PPG.

Toronto just snapped a four-game ATS slide w/ a win and cover Wednesday over the team that just beat Utah, Atlanta. The Raptors won, on the road, 108-93 as 6.5-pt chalk. Two of their three home losses this year came in a three-game span earlier this month - to Miami (who was red hot at the time) and then Golden State (who needs no introduction). I simply believe that Utah is substantially worse than Toronto and that this game should have a double digit spread attached to it. I haven't even mentioned how the Jazz's win in Detroit came in overtime (after they tied the game w/ a layup in the final second of regulation) or that the Pistons shot the ball woefully in that contest. The Raptors are substantially better on both ends of the floor and should roll here. 8* Toronto

8* Over Hawks/Hornets (7:05 ET): Charlotte just can't get "out of its own way" as they lost another close one on Wednesday, at home, to the Pelicans (by a score of 101-96). That doesn't even add to their already mystifying 0-14 SU record the L2 seasons in games decided by three points or less. Something to consider when evaluating this team is that - despite their 19-27 SU record - they have the 8th best point differential in the Eastern Conference and aren't much worse than Cleveland in that department! But tonight's focus is on the total w/ their game against Atlanta. I wouldn't want to lay pts w/ Charlotte anyway, but there's a bit of history here that suggests a high-scoring game "has" to be on the horizon. Take the Over.

Here's the deal: the Under has hit the last 10 times these Southeast Division rivals have met. That's quite the streak. Now they haven't met since very early this season w/ Charlotte winning 109-91 here at home. Neither team shot particularly well in that game and the Hornets actually rallied back from a 56-49 halftime deficit. Typically, they've been on the wrong end of those kind of situations this season. Despite not shooting the ball particularly well at home, they're still averaging 105.9 PPG though. Lately, there's been an uptick in their scoring, up to 112.8 ppg, over the last five contests. They've also averaged a similar number in division games this year. They'd gone Over in four straight before the loss to the Pelicans.

Atlanta has stayed Under in each of its last five games, but the bigger story for them is that they've won three of those. However, all those games were at home. On the road, this team is giving up an average of 109.3 points per game, a big reason why they are 4-19 SU in such games. They are still a bottom tier team in defensive efficiency as well (tied for 23rd). Like Charlotte, they are coming off a loss, 108-93 to Toronto. It was the third time in the last four games they failed to break 100 pts. But the shooting should improve from Weds night when they were below 40% from the field. The same could be said for Charlotte as well. I don't necessarily think that this O/U line is alarmingly low, rather I just think that we're "due" for this matchup to produce an Over. 8* Over Hawks/Hornets

10* BYU (11:00 ET): As is usually the case, the computers and power ranking systems like St. Mary's a lot more than the pollsters due. I'm not saying than one is necessarily "more right" than the other (though I personally usually side w/ numbers over humans), it's just the reality of the situation. In fact, you could say the same for SMU's main rival in the WCC, Gonzaga, as well. The Gaels just beat the Zags, by the way, 74-71 last week in Spokane. Predictably, there was then a bit of a letdown on Saturday when they only beat Pacific by three. However, coming off a four-game road trip, I view this game as being more dangerous for the Gaels. They're facing the #3 team in the WCC and historically have NOT performed well in this spot (read on for more detail). Take the points. 

BYU is the previously unnamed opponent here and they come in w/ a solid 17-4 SU record. They've won four in a row and five of the last six w/ the lone loss coming by a single point, at Pacific. The Cougars also have revenge for a 10-point home loss to SMU back on 12.30. That result dropped them to 1-5 SU/ATS the L6 head to head meetings. Though they did actually lead that December 30th game at halftime (31-29), the Cougars did not shoot well (40.7 FG%) while the Gaels did (50.9 FG%) and that was the difference. Making only five three-pointers certainly didn't help either. Note that - for the year - BYU is shooting 49.3% from the field, including 38.3% from three-point range. So, I'd expect a better offensive showing in this rematch. In fact, BYU has shot better than 50% in 9 of its previous 10 games and is at 54.5% the L5! 

St. Mary's is now 4-23 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. That's after failing to cover against Pacific on Saturday as 10.5-pt road chalk. That game was close throughout (w/ neither team leading by more than seven points) and the Gaels trailed at halftime. Fortunate for them, Pacific isn't very good. BYU is and obviously comes in w/ a ton of motivation. Yes, the Gaels have won 14 in a row, but BYU has won four straight - all by 15 pts or greater - so they should be feared as a dog, just like SMU was at Gonzaga last Thursday. As a favorite, SMU is just 7-9 ATS this year. 10* BYU

10* Under T'wolves/Warriors (10:35 ET): This shapes up as a really good national TV game Thursday as the best team in the league hosts arguably the most improved team in the league (compared to last year). The former team in question is obviously the Warriors, who have won 10 of 12 to improve to 38-10 on the season, which is three games clear of the second best team out West, Houston. San Antonio is third, but right behind them is Minnesota, who is making good on all the hype they received coming into this season. But they did lose in Portland last night and this is obviously going to be a challenging spot for a young team that could potentially be w/o Jimmy Butler. But the pointspread is also too high for my liking. The total has me intrigued, however, and I'm going w/ the Under.

Tuesday Golden State improved to a perfect 10-0 SU this season when off a SU loss as they beat the Knicks 123-112 here in Oakland (as monster 16.5-pt chalk). Their average margin of victory in those 10 games is now +17.2 PPG. I made the mistake of going Under in that one as the Warriors had a big second half (65 pts) and shot 55.4% for the game. Still, it's not as if the two teams flew past the O/U line (which closed at 226.5). We've got a slightly higher O/U line here and probably for good reason as Minnesota is also in the top 10 in offensive efficiency (Warriors #1), but also not that great defensively. Still though, four of the Warriors' five games previous to the one vs. New York resulted in Unders.

Minnesota has gone Over in three straight as last night saw them surrender 123 pts to Portland. But as is the case w/ Golden State, recent Timberwolves' games have been higher scoring than normal. Their last five have averaged 225.8 PPG, up considerably from the YTD average of 214.7. With the Dubs, we're looking at an average of 233.6 points the last five games as opposed to 223.1 for the season. Though they have scored at least 114 pts in all three games w/o Butler thus far, I can't see that continuing for the T'wolves, especially against a Warriors team that remains top five in the league in defensive efficiency. 10* Under T'wolves/Warriors

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Now that Colorado's win streak has ended (at 10 games), it's probably time for them to start "giving some back." No one expected the Avs to be playoff contenders this year, not after setting records for futility last season w/ only 48 points and a -112 goal differential. Through just 47 games, they already have more points this season and would actually be a playoff team if the regular season were to end today. But the regular season obviously does not end today and I expect the Avs to fade in the second half. Tonight, they face one of the teams above them in the rugged Central Division, that being St. Louis, who is coming off just its third shutout victory of the season. Go with the home team here.

A major reason for Colorado's recent success is that they were playing a lot of home games. They did win in Toronto to start the week, but that was one of just two wins away from home during the 10-game streak. The schedule caught up w/ them Tuesday as they finally lost, 4-2 in Montreal, in what was the second game of a back to back. They were outshot, 40-22. After playing 9 of 10 on home ice, the Avs' next four games will all be on the road as will six of the next seven. They've been outscored on the road so far, by about a half goal per game (pretty significant margin). Before the current trip began, no team in the league had played fewer road games. Expect goalie Jonathan Bernier to come back "down to Earth" soon as well.

Blues' HC Mike Yeo has been using an unconventional lineup of late w/ 11 forwards and seven defensemen in the rotation. It certainly worked Tuesday in the 3-0 shutout of the Senators where they enjoyed a 41-25 edge in shots. In three of the four prior games, the team has allowed one goal or fewer. The exception came in a 5-2 home loss, to Arizona of all opponents. The Blues have definitely had the Avs' number the past several seasons, going 14-3-3 the L20 head to head matchups. The team ranks 4th in goals per game, which is obviously very impressive. As of press time, Yeo has not yet determined who will be starting between the pipes, but it's likely to be the red hot Carter Hutton, who has a .944 save percentage his L4 starts. 8* St. Louis

10* Over Wild/Penguins (7:05 ET): I think that it would certainly be fair to label both of these teams as "first half (of the season) disappointments," certainly when juxtaposed w/ LY's results. Pittsburgh has of course won B2B Stanley Cups. So for them to be on the periphery of playoff contention is certainly noteworthy. Minnesota finished w/ 106 pts LY, but would NOT be in the playoffs (if they started today) despite playing well of late. So a lot is on the line here tonight. Each team plays in the tougher division of their respective conference. Not sure who gets the two points, but I do like the total. Scoring is down for the Pens this year, but they still boast the league's top power play unit. The Wild have scored 14 goals the L4 games. Take the Over. 

Above, I mentioned that the Wild have been playing well of late. They come into tonight having won B2B games as well as four of the last five. They've been off for two days since beating Ottawa 3-1. Before that, it was an impressive 5-2 win over Tampa Bay. Both wins came at home, however. They totaled 71 shots, which is a nice number. But the road has been far less kind this season, especially on the defensive end as they are giving up 3.6 goals per game. The Over is 12-6 in Wild road games this season if the O/U line is 5.5. In goal, Devan Dubnyk has played really well of late (.940 save percentage L4 starts), but is probably due to drop off. The Over is 8-4-1 in his road starts this season. 

For Pittsburgh, Sidney Crosby has not scored a goal in the L4 games, so it's only a matter of time now before he finds the back of the net again. As for the rest of team, they have scored three or more goals in four of the previous five games (no OT). The Pens continue to do a good job of getting the puck on net as they average 34.5 shots per game, which is just behind Chicago for the most in the league. At home, the number of shot attempts per game jumps to 37.5! They've had no fewer than 31 shots in eight consecutive contests. As for who is going to be in goal tonight, there's still some question over that. Casey DeSmith has started the last three games, as #1 Matt Murray has been dealing w/ a personal issue, and played well. But similar to Dubnyk for the Wild, I don't see DeSmith maintaining those numbers. Tristan Jarry has struggled. 10* Over Wild/Penguins

8* Calgary (10:05 ET): Things have gotten interesting in the Pacific w/ the Flames climbing up into the top three. The team they passed, the Kings, is the one they'll host Wednesday. Of the 15 teams in the Western Conference, only three don't really have a realistic path to the postseason. It is an incredibly thin line between those in playoff position and those that are not. While Calgary would be in if the season ended yday, a loss here would have them out. The Wild Card race in the Western Conference is going to be incredibly competitive. The Flames have dropped B2B home games, but prior to that had won seven in a row. I see them regaining their previous form tonight on home ice.

Meanwhile, the Kings are not in a good way. They've dropped seven of eight including an ugly one last night, 6-2 in Vancouver. They no longer are #1 in the league in goals allowed after Tuesday (now #2), though they still have the top PK unit. However, a key here will be who is in goal. Jonathan Quick was between the pipes again last night (for a 4th straight game, which includes a back to back), but does the team dare start him again here? His save percentage over those last four starts is just .885. The only other option is Darcy Kuemper. The team hasn't won w/ him in goal since December 7th. Last night, the Kings fell behind Vancouver 4-1, which prompted Quick to be pulled in favor of Kuemper. Even the top ranked PK unit gave up three goals. Again, this was against Vancouver, one of the worst teams in the league. 

Ironically, of these two teams, it has been Calgary that's been better on the goals allowed side of the ledger lately. They've allowed two goals or fewer in seven consecutive games. They now rank 8th in the league in goals allowed per game, not far behind LA. The offense has betrayed Calgary the L2 games as they've managed just two goals. But both losses occurred past regulation, one in OT and one in a shootout. During the seven-game win streak, the Flames scored at least three regulation goals six times. Likely starting in goal tonight will be Mike Smith and he has an other-worldly .965 save percentage his L4 starts. The Kings have been outscored 11-1 in the first period the last seven games. 8* Calgary

8* Miami FL (8:00 ET): Though many are making the case that it is the Big 12 that is the best conference in the land, if you believe Joe Lunardi, the ACC will be sending the most teams to the Big Dance (9). These are two of them in what, on paper, looks to be an even battle. But two things separate Miami from Louisville in this matchup. One is obviously home court advantage. I'm pretty impressed that the Hurricanes "are where they are" despite having played just seven times so far here in Coral Gables (6-1 SU, only loss is to Duke). Second is defense. Louisville is a good defensive team, but Miami is better and ranks in the top 10 nationally in adjusted efficiency (according to KenPom). I'll lay the short number here.

Both squads are in off wins. Louisville has won four straight, in fact, and was also on a 5-game ATS run before failing to cover Sunday at home vs. Boston College. I'm impressed that the Cardinals have been able to withstand all the off the court turmoil and remain a tournament team. The ugly departure of Rick Pitino obviously had the potential to really set the program back, but that hasn't really happened. But, away from home, they're just 3-3 straight up. They're also just 1-4 SU vs. the RPI Top 50 w/ the one win coming by four over Florida State. They have not taken on the most challenging of ACC schedules, having avoided Duke, North Carolina and Virginia thus far. They don't even play Duke or UNC until mid-February. They did lead big over B.C. on Sunday before winning by only eight, but that was after a double OT win over Notre Dame and coming from behind to beat Va Tech. 

Miami is off a really nice win at NC State over the weekend where they shot 58 percent from the field. While that kind of offensive display will be difficult, if not impossible, to duplicate here, I don't think they'll have to. As stated earlier, the Canes are top 10 in defensive efficiency. They've outscored visiting teams by over 18 PPG this season. This is their first home game since losing here to Duke, whom they led by 13 in the second half. This is a really critical game for "The U" given they've dropped three of five overall. L'ville is in 2nd place in the ACC right now, but they are pretty clearly NOT the league's 2nd best team. 8* Miami FL

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The spot the 76ers find themselves in tonight has traditionally not been a good one for them. Monday saw them lose to the Grizzlies, as 2.5-pt favorites, and when off a SU loss as chalk they're just 1-8 ATS this season (2-7 SU). However, note that loss came on the road and this team is still getting accustomed to the favorite role this season, let alone a road favorite. Also, it's not as if they were blown out. It was a four-point loss two nights ago and a game they probably "should" have won (outscored 31-18 in 4Q). Their opponent for tonight is Chicago and despite the resurgence over the second quarter of the season, I remain unsold. Yes, the Bulls have covered six straight, but this will be their third road game in five nights and they're off a double overtime loss to boot. Lay the number.

While the Sixers blew a 10-pt lead w/ less than 10 minutes to go on Monday, the Bulls happened to blow a 17-pt second half lead in New Orleans, so their loss was even more disappointing. Chicago had no answer for New Orleans' dynamic duo of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, who combined for 78 points. They allowed the Pelicans to go on a 23-4 run towards the end of regulation. While the Bulls still covered, I think it's fair to question what they'll have left in the tank here at the end of a four-game road trip. This remains a bottom tier team in offensive efficiency as they rank 28th out of 30 in that category. They have not been a good road team this season as is evident by a 7-17 SU record and the fact they have been outscored by over eight points per game.

Chicago dug itself far too deep an early season hole to be thinking about the playoffs this year, but Philly is definitely thinking playoffs. Right now, they are 8th in the East w/ a one-game lead over the Pistons. So a win here, as a home favorite, is a real necessity. Prior to the loss at Memphis, they had beaten Boston and Milwaukee, both in fairly convincing fashion. The defense shockingly ranks third in the league in efficiency, so I don't expect them to give up a ton of points here even though their pace of play remains quite fast. Something worth noting here is that when these teams met in Chicago, back in December, the Sixers were favorites. They did lose, blowing a late nine-point lead, but given that they were favored in that 1st matchup, the spread should be several points higher here. 10* Philadelphia

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): Phoenix looks to complete a perfect 4-0 ATS road trip here, but I just can't see that happening against an Indiana team that "ate their lunch" just 10 days ago in a 120-97 massacre. That was in Phoenix and the Pacers were 3.5-pt road chalk there, so I really can't understand this line - at all. Admittedly, the Indiana offense has sputtered some of late, failing to even score 100 pts in three consecutive contests. But they are off an upset win over San Antonio nonetheless, as six-point road dogs. The Suns are the second worst team in the league in my eyes. Again, this is the tail end of a long road trip and I think it's fair to question what they may have left in the tank, even though they had last night off. Lay the points.

Indiana is a top seven team in offensive efficiency, so I think they're due for a breakout performance on that end of the floor. Phoenix is pretty much an ideal opponent in that regard as they are 28th in defensive efficiency, plus we have the fact they gave up 120 to this same opponent (just 10 days ago) to lean on. That game saw the Pacers shoot 54.5% overall, including 11 of 23 from three-point range. That game was never really close as Indiana raced out to a 14-pt lead after the 1st quarter and never looked back. Seven players finished in double figures. The next night, they'd go onto win at Utah and were sitting pretty w/ a three-game win streak. But then came ugly losses at Portland and the Lakers. But closing the road trip w/ a win in San Antonio was no small achievement. The Spurs had previously won 14 straight at home.

The Pacers have had two days to prepare for this game, which is nice when coming off a trip out West. Compare that to the road-weary Suns, who are playing a fourth road game in nine days. Phoenix just lost to Milwaukee, hours after the Bucks fired Jason Kidd. This team simply doesn't win much as they have just two victories in the last eight games overall. Four of those six losses have come by double digits. They have the worst point differential in the league, save for Sacramento. Defensively, they allow more than 112 points per game. Indiana has gone 13-3 SU/11-5 ATS this season vs. foes allowing 106+ PPG. 8* Indiana

8* Under Knicks/Warriors (10:35 ET): New York has gone Over in seven straight, so naturally a battle w/ Golden State would seem destined to be a high-scoring affair. However, this number is just too high in my estimation. The Warriors, despite being the best and most efficient offense in the game today, have gone Under in three straight - all games w/ higher totals than this. Tonight marks their return home after a five-game road trip, which ended w/ a loss in Houston Saturday night (I was on the Rockets!). They'd previously played four Eastern Conference teams and beat them all. Conversely, the Knicks are in the middle of their own seven-game trip and have alternated wins and losses through the first four. I don't see a win tonight nor do I see an Over.

In terms of both points scored and allowed, the Knicks rank right near the middle of the pack. They just allowed 127 points (to the Lakers!) on Sunday, which isn't a good sign, but that was also their most pts allowed in any game this season. Not coincidentally then, we find this to be the highest O/U line for any Knicks game this season and by a pretty substantial margin. While it is true that they've allowed more than 120 pts three times in the last seven games, the previous two instances were overtime affairs, one of them going to two OTs. Both meetings w/ Golden State last year had lower O/U lines and the Under is 2-1 for NY this season if the number is 220 or higher.

Lost in all of the Warriors' success is the fact they are actually a very good defensive team. They are currently tied for 5th in efficiency at that end of the floor and the fact they allow 107.1 PPG is owed to the fact they play at a fast pace. But the number of points allowed does dip down slightly to 105.4 here at home. Warriors' home games "only" average 219.1 PPG as opposed to 222.9 PPG overall. Note both numbers are below tonight's O/U line. Opponents are shooting below 44% against them for the season. The Under is also 6-2 for them this season when taking the court on exactly two days rest. In four all-time meetings, Knicks' leading scorer Kristaps Porzingis has averaged only 10.0 PPG against GSW (though this will be the 1st time he's not saddled w/ Carmelo Anthony). 8* Under Knicks/Warriors

10* Over Jets/Sharks (10:35 ET): Call this a "West Side Story" as it's the Jets and Sharks facing off Tuesday. In the Western Conference, the Jets are one of your two division leaders, but it is by no means a firm hold as the Central is shaping up to be an incredibly tough race. Meanwhile, San Jose has inched its way up to second place in the Pacific, trailing only Vegas. But they too are by no means "in the clear" as only three points separate them from fourth place. So tonight's game definitely carries quite a bit of importance. The Sharks haven't been a dominant home team, but getting this game in "The Tank" is big simply because Winnipeg is 17-3-1 at their rink while just 11-10-6 on the road. Still, I'm staying away from the money line on this one.

Looking at the total, San Jose has been one of the top Under teams in the league this season. It's them and SoCal rival Anaheim way out in front of the pack in that regard. The Under is 14-7-1 in their home games. But lately, the team has seen an uptick in scoring as they've averaged 3.6 goals over the L5 games. Since January 1st, they are actually tied for the league lead w/ 35 goals scored. Now, that average is somewhat inflated due to Sunday's six-goal effort, in Anaheim of all places. They scored those six goals despite just 26 shots, but I'd expect them to have more chances tonight as Winnipeg gives up a decent number of shots per game, at least on the road (32.7 per game). Aaron Dell is expected to start in goal for San Jose and while that's a good thing (he's top five in GAA and save percentage), tonight would mark the first time all season that he's started three consecutive games. 

Winnipeg is going to go w/ Connor Hellebuyck and for good reason as he is coming off a phenomenal week. But I expect regression as those kind of numbers simply cannot be maintained. He's also been quite a bit shakier on the road where his record is just 8-5-5. The Jets have gone Under in four consecutive games, totaling just five goals. So, at the same time, isn't it maybe time for a breakout offensively? I'd answer that in the affirmative as this team ranks 6th in the league in goals per game and also boasts the 2nd best power play. Look for a high-scoring affair tonight. 10* Over Jets/Sharks

8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Will Columbus be the latest victim of the so-called "Vegas flu?" One thing is for certain and that's visiting teams have not fared well in Sin City in this first season of professional hockey on the strip, winning just four times in 22 tries and just two of those victories occurred in regulation. The Golden Knights continue to be THE story in the league this year as they lead the Pacific Division w/ 66 points and a YTD goal differential of +34 (3rd best) indicates that there's nothing fluky about it. Columbus is treading water in the Metro right now as their 55 pts have them in a precarious third place position (would be guaranteed a playoff spot if they finish there). But the Blue Jackets have also been outscored over the course of the season.

Tonight marks Vegas' return home after a 10-day road trip through the Southeast. They split four games, winning the last one, 5-1 over Carolina on Sunday. In three of the four games, they allowed just one goal (shutout in one of the two losses). So there's no real issue on that side of the ledger as goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has posted a .946 save percentage for the year and will very likely be back between the pipes this evening. Nor is there any real issue on the offensive end where the team ranks third in the league in goals per game. They are 14-8 SU after scoring 4+ goals their last time out and average 3.6 per game at home. 

Columbus is well-rested as they've been off since Thursday when they beat Dallas by a 2-1 count. But prior to that, they'd lost B2B games - to Vancouver and Buffalo no less. Scoring-wise, it looks to be a struggle for the Blue Jackets here as I seriously doubt they'll be able to "keep up" w/ the Golden Knights. The Jackets rank 28th in the league in goals per game and dead last (31st) on the power play (just 13.3 percent). That win over the Stars came on home ice and required a shootout. Their L3 wins have all come beyond regulation and they have just ONE regulation win since X-Mas! Overall, they're just 7-8-2 their L17 games. You have to go all the way back to December 29th to find the last time Columbus scored more than two goals in regulation. 8* Vegas

10* Kentucky (9:00 ET): We're not used to seeing Coach Cal in this position very often. His Wildcats have dropped B2B games as well as three of their last five and now find themselves out of the Top 25 for the 1st time since 2014 (when, ironically enough, they ended up making a Final Four run). Remember, this team opened #5 in the country and was in the top 10 as of Christmas Day. But they have yet to beat a single ranked team and aren't even in the top 25 nationally in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Now that we've got all that out of the way, it's time to "buy low." Tonight, UK hosts a Mississippi State squad that's dropped four out of five and is just 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season (4-10 ATS overall). Lay the points.

Until Saturday night, Kentucky had not lost a home game all season. They fell, 66-64 to Florida, the first time in 30 games they lost to a SEC opponent here in Lexington. What are the odds then of it happening two times in a row? I'd say "not likely" considering they did lead the Gators late in that game. Also, in the loss to South Carolina earlier in the week, they had a 14-point lead in the second half. It's got to be especially disheartening to have lost both of those games considering UK held South Carolina and Florida to 37.7% and 33.3% shooting, respectively, from the field. For the season, opponents are barely shooting above 40% against the Wildcats. On offense, they do need to get their act together from behind the arc. 

Fortunately for UK here, Mississippi State does NOT shoot the ball well, particularly on the road. The Bulldogs have won just once away from Starkville this season and are 0-4 SU in "true" road games. You don't have to dig too deep to find out why that is. They average just 58.8 PPG away from home, "thanks" to a 38.1 FG% and they are below 30% from three-point range. So they are really an ideal opponent for Kentucky right now. Furthermore, MSU is just 1-7 ATS this season against teams w/ winning records (Kentucky is 14-5 SU). Last year, UK was a DD favorite in Starkville. This looks like a really good value on Coach Cal and company, who are playing B2B home games for the 1st time in '18. 10* Kentucky

8* Over Islanders/Coyotes (9:05 ET): We're starting to see some high O/U lines attached to Islanders games and for good reason. This club has the odd distinction of ranking both 2nd in goals scored and last in goals allowed. Sure enough, they've gone Over in five of their last six games coming into tonight, including an impressive 7-3 win in Chicago Saturday night. That marked the second time in five games that the Isles scored seven goals and fourth in the last six games they scored at least five! In five of their last eight games, there have been at least nine total goals scored. I'm jumping aboard the "Over train" tonight.

This matchup w/ Arizona looks to be an easy one, at least on paper. The Coyotes also rank near the bottom of the league in goals allowed (28th), but the big difference here is that they also rank 30th (next to last) in goals scored. Clearly, we'll need some semblance of offense here from the 'Yotes in order to get this one Over. Well, good news. They've twice scored five goals in the last four games, including the last one, a 5-2 win over St. Louis. They should also get plenty of scoring opportunities in this game given the Islanders are allowing an unthinkable average of 42.0 shots over their last five contests! 

In the first meeting between these teams this season, the final score was 5-3 in favor of the Islanders. Note NY scored that many times despite only 25 shots on goal. I'd expect them to have far more chances tonight. Each team did score on the power play in that first meeting. If that happened again here, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised considering both teams rank in the bottom third in penalty killing w/ the Isles ranking 30th. This should be quite the high-scoring affair. 8* Over Islanders/Coyotes

10* Baylor (9:00 ET): The Big XII did not treat me well on Saturday as I came out on the losing end of a couple close games. One of them involved Kansas State, who was able to outlast TCU 73-68 as a 2.5-pt favorite (I had TCU). It was a good week for the Wildcats, who went 2-0 SU, also beating Oklahoma. But both wins came in the Little Apple (at home). Now they hit the road where they have not won since 12.29. Baylor, on the other hand, comes off a deflating three-point loss at Kansas, a place where they still have NEVER won. This sets up as HUGE game as "esteemed" bracketologist Joe Lunardi has both of these teams among the first few OUT of the field of 68 in March. It will be a crippling loss tonight for whomever falls. I'm siding w/ the home team in the "must-win" spot. 

Baylor actually led Kansas by five w/ less than five minutes to go Saturday night. They'd just scored on nine consecutive possessions and rallied back from an 11-pt halftime deficit. Then the wheels came off as the Jayhawks outscored them 14-6 over the final 4:39. The Bears' last five losses to Kansas have come by a combined 20 points, which has to be frustrating. So too is the fact that the team's record isn't better than 12-7 SU, including 2-5 in conference play. Of those five Big 12 losses, three have come by exactly three points each. Six of the team's seven losses have come against Top 25 teams. This is a classic case of a squad being better than its record. Personally, I would have the Bears ranked just outside the top 25 teams in America. 

Kansas State would still be a little lower for me, so factor in the homecourt advantage and Baylor is the play here. The Wildcats have recently come out on the winning end of a number of close games, basically the opposite of Baylor, though they too lost close in Lawrence (to Kansas) - in their case by just a single point. But since 12.20, they've also posted three victories by five points or less. That's in an eight-game span. Key to the Wildcats' victories last week was that they shot the ball exceptionally well; 56.5% and 52.9% respectively from the field in the two games. I don't see that happening tonight on the road. Baylor has only been favored five times this year, but covered four of them. They have NOT shot the ball that well recently, but that should change here at home where they are 38-9 SU the L47 tries. They've outscored visitors this season by an average of almost 19 PPG while holding them below 40% shooting. 10* Baylor

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): The Chicago Bulls opened the season an abysmal 3-20 SU, looking every bit as bad as the pessimistic projections foretold. However, since that time, a strange improvement has taken hold, one that has seen them go 15-8 SU over the L23 games. They come into tonight having won four of the last five, two of those wins coming by three points or less (one in double OT), however, the last one was as "easy as it gets" as they dispatched Atlanta (on the road!) by a score of 113-97. That same Atlanta team just beat New Orleans not long ago (last Wednesday), but don't be fooled by those disparate results as the Pelicans are clearly the better team here and I expect that to show in the final result tonight. Lay the points.

The Bulls have also covered five straight as their lone SU loss during that stretch came against Golden State. They held the Hawks to 38.0% shooting Saturday while scoring at least 112 pts themselves for a third consecutive contest. However, context is everything and the bottom line is the Bulls are still being outscored by 5.6 pts per 100 possessions, the third worst mark in the entire league. Granted, there's been a big difference between the last 23 games compared to the first 23, but I remain unsold on any kind of renaissance taking place in the Windy City. They are bad road team w/ a record of just 7-16 SU and being outscored by almost nine points per game. Also, they're likely to be w/o PG Kris Dunn here as he suffered a concussion in the Golden State game. 

All-Star starters were just named last week. There were two teams that had multiple players picked. One was obviously Golden State w/ Steph Curry and Kevin Durant. The other was New Orleans w/ Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. This Pelicans team, while not deep, is one the top teams in the West will certainly want to avoid in the 1st round of the playoffs. Right now, it's a close battle for the bottom few spots, but I have the Pelicans ranked as the 6th best team in the Conference. Led by Davis and Cousins, they average more than 110 PPG and are sixth in the league in offensive efficiency. I don't see the Bulls having any answer inside for the "twin towers." Though it was only a seven-point win over Memphis on Saturday (didn't cover), New Orleans led by as many as 21 and never trailed. Also note that they won in Chicago earlier in the year (in a very ugly low-scoring game) and covered as 5.5-pt favorites. With a virtually identical pointspread here at home, there's substantial value on the chalk here. 10* New Orleans 

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): It seems as if every time the Hornets are set to possibly turn a corner, they shoot themselves in the proverbial foot. The latest instance of this "phenomenon" occurred Saturday, right here at home. Off impressive B2B victories over Detroit and Washington, they were in position to win a third straight game over a top eight team (in the East) as they led Miami by five w/ 34 seconds remaining. Sadly, they lost (on a disputed foul call) 106-105, dropping them to an almost unfathomable 0-14 SU in games decided by three points or less since the start of last season! Fortunately for this underachieving ballclub, tonight they'll host the worst team in the league, that being Sacramento. Don't be scared off by the pointspread in this one - lay it!

Despite an 18-26 SU record, the Hornets have basically scored the same number of points that they have allowed this season! Last year, they actually outscored the opposition, yet finished 36-46 SU. Compare this to the season Sacramento is having as the Kings are now a league-worst 13-32 SU (lost 7 straight) and being outscored by 9.2 ppg, easily the worst mark in the league (next worst is Phoenix at -6.7 ppg). Furthermore, the Kings have the dubious distinction of ranking last in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They're one of only two teams in the league not averaging at least 100 PPG and they're the only team that doesn't average at least one point per possession. In other words, they stink. 

Earlier this month, the Hornets went to Sacramento and destroyed the Kings by a score of 131-111. They were 4-pt favorites there, so little to no adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers for this rematch. On the road this season, the Kings are already being outscored by roughly 12 points per game. They just lost - by 18 - at Memphis, who is the other team in the league not averaging 100 ppg. That marked the third double-digit loss in the last four games and fourth overall during the seven-game skid. To further illustrate their struggles, they've covered just two of the previous 11 games and that's despite being an underdog in nine straight. 8* Charlotte

analysis soon8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Theoretically, Maple Leafs' fans should be quite happy right now. We're into the second year of what has been a renaissance for this long-suffering franchise and another playoff berth is all but assured given the gap between the top three in the Atlantic (a group they are counted among) and the field. Also, the team is off a thrilling 4-3 victory over provincial rival Ottawa on Saturday. But the pending free agency of star Auston Matthews (at the end of NEXT season) casts somewhat of a cloud over this franchise and there's already been talks of trading him in anticipation of a possible departure. That's crazy. Still, I was impressed by the way they were able to come from behind Saturday (snapped 4-game losing streak) and win. I like them tonight. 

Perhaps even crazier than the Matthews' rumors is the fact the Colorado Avalanche come into this game riding a 9-game win streak. You have to remember that this team set records for ineptitude last season w/ only 48 points and a -112 goal differential, both easily league worsts. Incredibly, they've made the leap to playoff contender in just one year's time and haven't even trailed (at any point!) during the current win streak, which has seen them beat nine potential playoff teams (outscored them 37-15)! They've even been w/o their #1 goaltender, Semon Varlamov, since January 2nd! However, all but one of those wins has come at home. The Avs have played a league-low 19 road games so far and are just 8-9-2 in them. Jonathan Bernier continues to play out of his mind between the pipes, but how long can that possibly last? The Avs continue to give up a high number of shots and that could mean trouble against a high-scoring outfit like the Leafs. 

Having already lost four in a row, Toronto found itself down 3-1 after two periods Saturday vs. Ottawa. But they stormed back w/ a three-goal third period and that can certainly create some "momentum" (hate that word!). The Leafs have been a little unfortunate of late in that opposing goalies have posted a .933 save percentage against them the L5 games. Compare that to a .898 save percentage against them for the season. Combined w/ Colorado allowing so many shots, I expect the home team to break out offensively in this battle of top seven offenses and grab the two points. 8* Toronto

10* Philadelphia (6:40 ET): Last week, I went into great detail about how the absence of QB Carson Wentz was being drastically overvalued. Had Wentz been healthy, I would have made the Eagles roughly a touchdown favorite (at home) over the Falcons. They came in as underdogs, which I thought was ridiculous, and sure enough won the game outright 15-10. Nick Foles is a very capable backup QB in this league. Philadelphia's strength comes not from the quarterback position, but along the offensive and defensive lines. We saw that last week as they held Atlanta below 300 total yards. In fact, the Falcons' lone touchdown was scored off a turnover, on a drive that began at the Philly 18-yard line. Same verse as last week. Take the points.

In case you've been living under a rock, the Vikings pulled off one of the more improable wins in playoff history last week, beating the Saints 29-24 on a walkoff Stefon Diggs' 61-yard touchdown. Obviously, there's a case to be made that the Vikings shouldn't even be in this game and I'm not talking about Case Keenum. Now, maybe if Marcus Williams makes the tackle, Minnesota still kicks a game-winning field goal. Regardless, I don't believe the road team should be favored in this spot. It's the same thing as Atlanta last week. Were Wentz healthy, I'd have the Eagles listed as 3.5-pt favorites (maybe 4). I do not think Wentz is worth a full touchdown to the spread. According to my research, this will be just the SIXTH time under the current playoff format that the host of a conference championship game is an underdog. Two of the previous five featured non-#1 seeds. The last time we saw this situation was two years ago when the Broncos upset the Patriots. 

Lending itself to taking the points is the fact this should be a low-scoring battle between two good defenses. Needless to say, when the season started, no one though it would be Case Keenum vs. Nick Foles in the NFC Champ Game. That speaks to the two defenses here. Remember though; the Eagles have lost only once at home this season and that came in the meaningless regular season finale. They are outscoring visitors by two touchdowns per game. Earlier in the year, the Vikings were a road favorite at Carolina and lost the game outright. Last year on this field, Minnesota lost 21-10, also as a slight road favorite. 10* Philadelphia

8* Virginia (6:00 ET): I have a ton of respect for Tony Bennett's Cavailers. The Hoos come ranked #2 in the country and there's no doubt they are in fact one of the best teams in the country. Tonight finds them in search of a 10th straight victory. Granted, they're on the road for just the third time in ACC play and 2nd time in a week. But the pointspread has not really been an issue for this team as they've gone 11-3 ATS as a favorite this season. Their lone loss came at West Virginia back on 12.5. So much of their dominance is predicated on their defense, which gives up the fewest number of points per game in the country at 52.6! Wake Forest, one of the weaker teams in the conference, just doesn't stand a chance here. 

Tuesday saw UVA win at Georgia Tech by a score of 64-48. That was the eighth time this season that an opponent failed to score even 50 pts, which is obviously very impressive. During the current win streak, they have not allowed more than 61 pts in any game and 52 or fewer six times. Here, they face a Wake Forest opponent that can score (made 9+ threes in every ACC game), but the Demon Deacons struggle to defend (allowing 76.8 PPG in ACC play). If Virginia comes anywhere close to what WF is allowing in conference play, then this will be an easy win and cover for the favorite. Last year in Charlottesville, they beat the Demon Deacons 79-62. 

Wake Forest is also only shooting 39.4% overall in ACC play. That's not the kind of number you want to have when facing Virginia. They suffered a fourth straight loss on Thursday, 72-63 at NC State as the Deacons gave up the game's final 11 points. The fact that WF is just 3-9 ATS against teams w/ winning records this year does not bode well considering they are about to embark on a six-game stretch of facing teams that either are currently ranked or have previously spent time in the Top 25 this year. Virginia holds teams below 30% shooting from three-point range, so that's one weapon the Demon Deacons likely can't rely on here. 8* Virginia

8* Jacksonville (3:05 ET): I told you last week that the Jaguars had a great shot at upsetting the Steelers and sure enough that they did, winning 45-42 as touchdown underdogs. Despite being outgained in the contest, rather significantly (545-378), it felt as if they were never in any real danger of losing as they jumped out to a 21-0 lead and it was a meaningless TD (w/ :01 remaining) that made it a one-score final. Yet again, I feel the oddsmakers are underrating this team. One week after allowing 42 points and 545 total yds seems like an inopportune time to mention how good the defense has been, but the fact is they still rank #3 in points allowed and are #1 against the pass. New England may lead the league in point differential, but the Jags are third, so the spread just shouldn't be this high. Take the points.

Now, admittedly, I also played Tennessee against New England in the Divisional Round. That one, clearly, didn't work out. But remember that the Titans were able to take an early 7-0 lead after driving the length of the field. I maintain that the Pats' defense remains vastly overrated. While ranking 5th in points allowed, they were #29 in yards allowed. That "bend but don't break" mentality caused the largest gap between the number of actual points they allowed and what you'd expect them to allow (based on yards). The Titans simply lacked the firepower (and creative playcalling) to take advantage. I still believe that Matt Patricia's (who isn't sticking around to fix this) unit is capable of hurting this team.

During practice this week, Tom Brady reportedly injured his hand. It's not thought to be serious, but still, it's an injury. Patricia isn't the only NE coordinator w/ one foot out the door. OC Josh McDaniels is also reportedly going to leave (to be Indianapolis HC). Remember that the Patriots don't have a LeVeon Bell that they can theoretically lean on here either. They are a pass-first offense and that's not really a great matchup when facing the league's #1 pass defense. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 pts, the Jags have covered 12 of their last 16 (3-0 ATS this year). They are 4-2, straight up and against the spread, as a dog of any kind this season. Don't let Jacksonville's 10-6 SU record fool you. They were better than that as they showed last week. The giant "chasm" that is thought to exist between these two teams simply isn't there. 8* Jacksonville

8* Boston (1:05 ET): For just the third time this season, we find the Celtics off B2B defeats. One of the previous two instances came all the way back in the third game of the season! Since that time, they've gone 34-10 straight up and the lone losing streak (before the current one) took place right before X-Mas. Now there is zero instances of them losing three straight. So taking them here off B2B losses, both here at home no less, seems prudent. Now there is a pointspread to "worry" about, but fortunately the opponent is Orlando, who is only 5-20 SU on the road this year and getting outscored by six points per game. That's w/ the vast majority of games coming against foes not as good as the Celtics. Lay the points here. 

Now, Orlando has covered four consecutive games, even winning straight up once, that being as a home dog over Minnesota earlier this week. But they reverted back to their losing ways Thursday in Cleveland. While they lost by only one to the struggling Cavs, note that they did trail by as many as 23 points. Cleveland's atrocious defense again let Orlando back in the game, the second time that has happened this month. Note that other than the Magic, Cleveland hasn't beaten anybody in the last three weeks! Here, Orlando will face a far more formidable foe on the defensive end. In fact, Boston ranks #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and #2 points allowed (just 0.3 PPG behind San Antonio). 

This will be the Celtics' third consecutive home game since returning from London (where they rallied back from a huge deficit to defeat the 76ers). Back in Beantown, they then lost to New Orleans on Monday, giving up 116 pts in the process. However, be aware that point total is a little misleading as the game went into overtime. It was then the offense that betrayed the Celtics Thursday night in an 89-80 loss to a highly motivated 76ers team that was seeking revenge. Kyrie Irving didn't even play in that game and as a result the Celtics shot just 40.5% from the floor. Boston is obviously a far more dynamic team offensively w/ Irving on the court. He is expected to return to the lineup today. Orlando, only 12-34 ATS their L46 visits here, is short-handed w/o Nikola Vucevic and Arron Afflalo. They also allow 112.4 PPG on the road, which is very bad obviously. 8* Boston

8* Washington (12:35 ET): Despite dropping B2B games, the Capitals have reclaimed their usual place atop the Metropolitan pecking order. However, if they'd like to maintain the first place stature, then winning today would probably be a "good idea." They host division rival Philadelphia, who has won two straight and 7 of 10. The Flyers are just trying to get into the playoff picture as they are currently in sixth in the Metro, but just a single point out of the Wild Card. Something else to consider here is that the Caps have to have revenge on their minds from an ugly 8-2 loss they took in the City of Brotherly Love, back in October. I'm on the home favorite here as I can't seem them losing three in a row.

A key here is the Flyers are playing the 2nd night of a back to back. They won at home (over New Jersey) yday afternoon by a score of 3-1. Can they really beat the top two teams in the Metro, though? In consecutive days, no less? Scoring has not been an issue for Philly of late as they've totaled 28 goals the last seven games, an average of exactly 4.0 gpg. But I see that number as being due for a sharp decrease. First off, they are only 14th for the season in goals per game. Yesterday, they scored all three goals in a 1st period flurry. That performance is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. Secondly, today they'll have to face Braden Holtby, who comes in w/ a .932 save percentage for Washington on home ice.

The Caps are already 13-5 SU in revenge spots this season. That 1st meeting saw Philadelphia hold a significant edge in shots on goal (37-23), which I'm guessing will NOT be the case here. Philly also has a dilemma in goal here as Michael Neuvirth has had the hot hand (.951 save percentage), but he's started the L2 games. Would he really get the nod on consecutive days? If not, it will be Brian Elliott, who has an ugly .866 save percentage his L4 starts. Either way, expect Washington to get the two points here as they are 5-1 SU this season when coming off B2B losses. Their lone three-game losing skid came on a road trip around the Christmas holiday when they had to go Arizona-Vegas-New York over a 5-day span. 8* Washington

10* Under Mavs/Blazers (10:05 ET): Right off the bat, this number looked a little high to me. That's probably owed to the fact Portland has gone Over in six of its last seven games. But the one that they didn't was last time out as they held Indiana to only 86 points in a convincing victory. That's a Pacers team that ranks in the top seven in offensive efficiency, mind you. Here they'll be facing a Dallas team that is far less scary on the offensive end of the floor. In fact, the Mavericks rank 24th in the league in points per game, an average largely owed to the fact the play at one of the slowest paces in the entire league. But the Mavs do also rank 10th in points allowed while Portland is 8th. Sounds like an Under to me! 

Dallas has going Under more than they have Over recently. They're 4-1 Under their L5 games. Last Saturday, I took the Under when they played the Lakers and even w/ OT, the game still stayed Under. After two days off, the Mavs then traveled to Denver and lost by a similar score (105-102), although this team there was no OT. Poor foul shooting, at least late in games, is somewhat to blame for the inability to win close. However, the bottom line is that this simply isn't a very high scoring team. The loss to Denver was also misleading in the sense that the Mavs entered the 4th quarter down 17 and took advantage of some lackadaisical Nuggets defense. Dallas scored 33 pts in the 4th quarter after scoring just 42 total in the 2nd & 3rd combined. 

Portland is only 20th in the league in points per game, so like Dallas, they've been a better team this year at the defensive end. It was crazy that they lost six in a row here at home at one point, but they've since responded w/ five straight wins. Thursday vs. Indiana, both teams shot below 40 percent from the field. Very different from the Mavs' last game, the Blazers used defense to pull away in the 4Q, holding the Pacers to just 12 pts. After the recent rash of Overs, we're due to see more Unders start coming in for the Blazers, who are already 20-6 Under in games that they are favored in this season. They are also 5-1 Under this season after holding their previous opponent to 90 pts or less. The Under is 15-7 in all Blazers' home games. 10* Under Mavs/Blazers

8* Houston (8:35 ET): The two top teams in the Western Conference (and the league) square off Saturday night in Houston w/ the Rockets hosting the Warriors. For a good length of time there, the Rockets were not only seriously challenging the Dubs for the top spot in the West, they were leading them in the standings! As things stand as of press time, Golden State has a 4.5 game advantage. Since starting 25-4 SU, Houston has gone 6-8 SU its L14 games including a loss to these Warriors (here at home) back on January 4th. They did not have James Harden in that game, however, and I don't see GSW coming in and winning here again. Therefore, the points are a premium in this marquee showdown on national TV. Take the points.

Something to keep in mind about the Rockets' 6-8 stretch is that they have not been healthy. Even for tonight, they'll have two players - Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green - suspended for their roles in that ridiculous melee w/ the Clippers earlier this week. But, Harden is back and that's what matters as he, Chris Paul and Eric Gordon will all be back together. This is as healthy as the team has been going back to December 13th! Harden returned Thursday and even though he didn't play particularly well (10 pts on 3 of 15 shooting), the Rockets still rolled, 116-98, over a good Minnesota team. The Rockets are really the only team in the league that can match Golden State's efficiency on the offensive end (teams rank 1-2 in that department).

In addition to Houston being healthy for the first time in forever, I also like their chances based on where this game comes up on Golden State's schedule. Tonight marks the Warriors' fifth consecutive road game (last of the trip) over a nine-day span. So fatigue could definitely be a factor for them here. Draymond Green did not play in Wednesday's win at Chicago and is listed as probable here. But let's note there have been some close calls on this trip and they've had to travel alot, including games vs. Toronto and Cleveland. Tonight will mark just the fifth time Houston has been an underdog this year. Two of the previous four have been against Golden State and let the record show they did go to Oakland and win outright earlier in the season when they were healthy. 8* Houston

10* Kentucky (8:15 ET): Not being the favorite in the SEC is certainly irregular in Lexington and coming off a disappointing loss at South Carolina earlier in the week, this shapes up as a very big game for Coach Cal and company. With the ESPN cameras present, I expect a big effort tonight vs. 1st place Florida. Strangely, the Gators come into this game unranked. That had me a little wary of going in on the Wildcats here, but the bottom line is they are a perfect 11-0 SU here at Rupp Arena, outscoring their visitors by 13 points per game. Florida lost its last road game (at Ole Miss) and had a close call in the one before that. It is unlikely that they're going to play anywhere near the level they did vs. Arkansas (in Gainesville) earlier this week. Lay the points.

Tuesday's loss to South Carolina simply should not have happened as Kentucky blew a 14-point second half lead. They led the Gamecocks to 37.7% shooting for the game, including 5 of 23 from three-point range. But it was the Wildcats' own poor shooting from distance that helped doom them as they went 1 for 11 from behind the arc, virtually all of the attempts coming from Kevin Knox. This being a Coach Cal squad, there's a lot of freshman, but unlike past seasons, the head coach has yet to settle in on a lineup. Part of that is PG Quade Green has missed the L2 games w/ a back injury. He's listed as a game time decision for tonight. Also, freshman Jarred Vanderbilt is just getting going. The team was significantly better on defense when he was on the court Tuesday. I just can't see a team this talented struggling offensively again the way it did vs. South Carolina (a top defensive team, mind you). The Wildcats scored only three points over the game's final six minutes and were outscored 36-14 over the final 12:28.

Meanwhile, Florida ripped Arkansas on Wednesday, using a fast start as the catalyst. It also helped that KeVaughn Allen went for 28 points. But the Gators have struggled away from home this season, going just 5-3 straight up and that's primarily due to the defensive end as they are allowing 78.6 points per game in those contests. As I mentioned earlier, they lost at Ole Miss last weekend and before that beat Missouri by only two. Kentucky is a far greater challenge obviously and one I don't think they'll be able to overcome. 10* Kentucky

8* TCU (4:00 ET): Here's another Big 12 battle on Saturday. Check the opening of my analysis on Oklahoma-Oklahoma State for my take on the depth of the conference. Here we have two of the "mid-tier" teams in the conference, though that distinction undersells what TCU has accomplished this season. I have the Horned Frogs ranked in my top 20, despite a 2-4 record in conference play, and the pollsters have them in the Top 25 as well. They picked up a big win earlier in the week, literally, as they routed Iowa State 96-73, snapping a three-game losing skid. Today they pay a visit to a Kansas State team that should be in prime letdown mode after upsetting Oklahoma earlier in the week. Take the points. 

I talked about the Oklahoma-Kansas State result in the analysis for the other Big 12 game in the package, but just to rehash, the Wildcats were able to hold Trae Young, the nation's leading scorer, in check in the 87-69 win as 2-pt dogs. They also forced 20 Sooners' turnovers. Coming off a one-point loss to Kansas last weekend, that was a pretty impressive performance from Kansas State. But can they follow up? History says "no" as they are 1-5 ATS this season after scoring 80+ points the previous game. Furthermore, they shot 56.5% from the field against the Sooners and that's not likely to be repeated here, even though TCU is a weaker defensive team. It's still early, but the Wildcats have yet to string together consecutive conference wins. 

TCU comes in at 14-4 SU overall and all four losses have been by five points or fewer, two of them in overtime. Taking a team that has yet to be blown out, as an underdog, certainly seems like a prudent maneuver. Jamie Dixon's team entered the Iowa State game w/o starting PG Jaylen Fisher (out indefinitely), but it didn't matter as backup Alex Robinson came in and filled the void. All Robinson did was dish out a school record 17 assists. So the Horned Frogs certainly seem okay the position. Kansas State is also w/o its starting PG, Kamau Stokes, who is also listed as out indefinitely. His backup, Barry Brown, is averaging 24.7 PPG. So this one may very well come down to the battle of backup point guards. I'll still side w/ TCU though as they have been the better team all season and remain an underrated side. 8* TCU

8* Oklahoma (2:00 ET): Just in case you hadn't been paying close attention, the Big 12 is absolutely stacked this year. The league could send as many as 8 of its 10 members to the Big Dance in March, which would be quite the remarkable achievement. It's also somewhat of a "top-heavy" conference w/ five teams currently ranked in my top 18, none of whom have emerged as the clear favorite (let's be honest though, would anyone be shocked if Kansas wins the regular season crown again?). Oklahoma is one of those five teams and is off a SU loss here, perhaps its worst of the season, 87-69 at Kansas State. But this afternoon, the Sooners find themselves playing one of the two "also-rans" in the conference, that being Bedlam rival Oklahoma State. I'll lay the short number on the road.

OU has lost just three times this year, all to quality opponents. The infamous "Octagon of Doom" in Manhattan, KS is a tough place to play, so there's no shame in the Sooners losing to Kansas State earlier in the week. But it clearly was a bad performance as leading scorer Trae Young had arguably his roughest night of his outstanding freshman campaign. The Sooners' guard was held to only 20 pts, his fewest in a game since the opener, on 8 of 21 shooting. "I didn't do very well tonight. I played terrible," the freshman guard said. "I blame a lot of the loss on me. All of the loss on me. I didn't play very well tonight," said Young after the game. Obviously, I would expect him to be significantly better tonight. It was 20 turnovers, more than anything else, that prevented OU from coming anywhere close to its scoring average of 93.6 PPG (#1 in the nation!) against KSU.

Now Oklahoma is absolutely NOT the 4th best team in the country (current ranking) right now. They'll drop b/c of Tuesday's loss, however, this remains an ideal bounce back situtation. They've already faced Oklahoma State once and put up 109 pts on them in Norman. Young had 27 pts, 10 assists and 9 rebounds in that game. Keep in mind that not only does Young lead the country in scoring (29.5 PPG), he is also #1 in assists (9.8). Oklahoma State is just 1-6 ATS this season vs. teams averaging 77+ points per game. Though they haven't played since Monday (lost 76-60 at Baylor), having to take a bus home from Waco (inclement weather) does the Pokes no favors coming into this one. 8* Oklahoma 

8* Dallas (1:00 ET): There aren't many great teams in the NHL this season, nor are there many "bad teams." Things are as wide open, in both conferences, as I can ever remember. I'll continue to harp on this fact until it's proven untrue, but today there's a great opportunity to go against one of those few "bad" teams. Buffalo is w/o question the worst team in the Eastern Conference and one of the two worst in the entire league (alongside Arizona). They are dead last in every area (among Eastern Conf teams) and last in the entire league in goals per game (2.3). They're not very good on the other side of the ledger either, ranking 28th in goals allowed at 3.4 per game. This afternoon, they face a Dallas team desperate to maintain its current standing in the brutally tough Central Division. Go against the Sabres.

Dallas has 56 points (Buffalo only has 31) and that has them 4th in the Central. As of today, the Stars would be one of the two Wild Cards in the Western Conference and thus have to face a division winner in the 1st round of the playoffs. Obviously, they'd like to move up at least one spot in the division so that they can be guaranteed a playoff opportunity and not face one of the two division winners. That's very achievable as they are just three points back of Winnipeg and St. Louis, who are tied for second. The Stars have gone 6-3-1 their L10 games, but are off a shootout loss in Columbus Thursday. Today marks the end of a four-game road trip and while fatigue might be a factor, it wasn't when they played w/o rest in Detroit earlier in the week (won 4-2). That's a game I remember because I took them! Despite losing to Columbus Thursday, the Stars had the edge in shots (36-26) and against the Red Wings, the edge was 26-15 in that department. Those numbers are clearly "what you want to see."

As for Buffalo, their numbers are NOT what you want to see. They've won just one game in 2018 (against Columbus ironically). Coming off their week off, they lost to the Rangers 4-3 on Thursday, a game where they wasted a 2 for 4 power play. It's highly unlikely that the Sabres would be that successful again w/ the man advantage considering they are just 30th in the league at 14.0 percent. They are also just 3-16 this season when facing an opponent that has a winning record. Dallas is 26-17-4 overall. 8* Dallas

8* Georgetown (12:00 ET): Patrick Ewing's Hoyas are off an absolutely humiliating loss to Villanova earlier in the week, as they fell 88-56. While there's no shame in losing to one of the best teams in the country, doing so by that kind of margin (at home no less!) is clearly no good. But today, G'town not only gets to stay at home, but face an opponent they've already beaten. In fact, I took them +6.5 when they went to the Big Apple and beat St. John's outright, 69-66, on January 9th. That happens to be the Hoyas' last win as they'd go onto lose at Seton Hall last Saturday, then came the Villanova debacle. But St. John's is in much worse shape right now as the Red Storm remain winless in Big East play at 0-7 SU. Lay the small number.

Georgetown was actually one of the last remaining unbeatens nationally as they opened the season 8-0 SU. But few took them seriously as they took on an incredibly weak non-conference schedule, one that saw them play just a single "true" road game. Sure enough, we've watched them go 4-6 SU the L10 games, including a 2-5 mark in Big East games. But the perception that the Hoyas padded their schedule was well-known and something that I believe created a "desire" to play against them, even at inflated prices. They haven't covered the last two games, but before that they were 5-1-1 ATS their L7. Coming off a terrible loss like the one they took against 'Nova and already having beaten St. John's, I think the Hoyas are pretty clearly undervalued in this spot.

Of course, the Hoyas' recent level of losing does not compare to that of St. John's, who last won a game before X-Mas! There have been numerous close calls in this 0-7 start to Big East play (five losses by 7 pts or less), but that actually works against them here as I seriously doubt they'll be able to match Wednesday's effort at Xavier where they shot 50% from the field, including 11 of 24 from three-point range. This is also the second of B2B road games. Meanwhile, G'town isn't about to let another opponent shoot 60% (like Villanova did Weds) and their own shooting is set to drastically improve as well (four straight games below 40%!). Consider the Hoyas were able to beat St. John's the first time despite shooting only 33.3% and that was on the road! 8* Georgetown

10* Florida (7:35 ET): The incredible expansion campaign being put forth by Vegas continued last night w/ a 4-1 win at league-best Tampa Bay. The Golden Knights now sit comfortably a top the Pacific Division w/ 63 pts, also the most in the entire Western Conference. The idea of the playoffs running throw Sin City is pretty mind-blowing when you think about it and NOT a good thing for the rest of the field considering the Knights' league best 18-2-2 home record. However, they've been far more fallible on the road where they're just 12-9-1 and that's including last night's win. Tonight marks their third straight road game, in a four-day span. It's also the second of a back to back and therefore I feel this an appropriate time to fade. 

Florida will play host this evening and their season is not going nearly as well as what we're seeing out in Vegas. The Panthers come into this game as losers of four of their previous five, though this is quite the idea spot as they're coming off a week-long break. They haven't played since losing to Calgary, 4-2, here at home last Friday. The Panthers are on the wrong side of a big gap in the Atlantic Division as they're 13 points out of third place and 10 back of the Wild Card in the Eastern Conference. So they'll have to make a run soon, if they want to have any shot at making the playoffs. This was a team that made my list to decline this season and the problem has been they allow far too many shots (most in the league on a per game basis). That has translated into them ranking 27th in goals allowed as well.

These teams met last month, in Vegas, and the Golden Knights dominated (40-18 edge in shots) in a 5-2 victory. I obviously am expecting something quite different in tonight's rematch. The respective scheduling situation greatly favors the Panthers, who are more than rested while fatigue could certainly be a major factor for the Golden Knights. The fact Vegas has had to deal w/ so many injuries makes this season all the more remarkable, but I say everything "catches up w/ them" here. Either they start Marc-Andre Fleury on no rest or have to turn to one of their shaky backup goaltenders. Florida's #1, James Reimer, will be ready to roll (just like the rest of the team). 10* Florida

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Miami is as hot as any team in the league right now as they've won eight of nine. Remember, though they didn't make the playoffs last year, there was a tremendous second half run where they went 30-11 SU. However, one thing I have to point out here about the Heat is that despite currently being in fourth place in the East, they've been outscored this season. There are seven teams in the East w/ positive point differentials and they are not one of them. So while it may be tempting to lay a small number against a "bad" Brooklyn team, don't fall into the trap. Also, from a scheduling perspective this is not a good spot for Miami. It's their third consecutive road game and fourth game overall in six nights. Take the points.

Brooklyn has lost three straight to fall to 16-29 SU on the season. That awful deal they made w/ Boston a few years back (to land an over the hill Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett) still haunts the franchise as they don't even have a 1st round draft pick this offseason (Cleveland now owns the rights to it via the Kyrie Irving trade). So, it's very likely this franchise will continue to suffer for some time. But, as for the present, it may not be quite as bad as you may think. They're only being outscored by 3.2 ppg this year. Now they have lost five in a row at home. But they only lost by five here to San Antonio on Wednesday and that's despite shooting a pretty woeful 42.2% from the field. They pushed as five-point dogs, but are still 17-7 ATS this season vs. teams w/ a winning record. 

Miami has kept winning in spite of some injuries, but I feel that can't continue. Dion Waiters is done for the year and Tyler Johnson (ankle) is listed as OUT for this game. The last time these played, the Nets actually blew the Heat out, 111-87 as six-point dogs, and that was in Miami! The Heat shot just 33.7% from the field, including a horrific 3 of 26 from three-point range. Given the result though, I just don't understand the line for this one. My own power rankings rate this game as a pick 'em and I have to go back to the number of games the Heat have played recently as something that will catch up to them. I also think they're NOT as good as their won-loss record. The Heat are also just 7-11 ATS when favored this year and this is just the FIFTH time they've been favored on the road. 10* Brooklyn

10* Over St. Bonaventure/Davidson (7:00 ET):  Something has got to give w/ the total in this Atlantic 10 matchup as one of the participants (St. Bonaventure) has gone Over in five straight games and the other (Davidson) has gone Under in five straight. In terms of wins and losses, the two squads are also trending in opposite directions. The Bonnies have dropped three of their last four, including a 14-pt loss at Rhode Island their last time out. Davidson, meanwhile, has won four straight and the last three have all come in dominant fashion as in by 27 points or more! Therefore, it certainly seems a bit odd that the Wildcats would be favored by so little on their homecourt Friday night, but I'm banking on them giving up far more points here than they did against either GW or Fordham, their previous two opponents. Take the Over.

Davidson has played only five home games so far and won them all. They've outscored opponents by an average of 25.6 points in those five games. On the road, they certainly had no problem w/ Fordham on Sunday, winning that game 75-45 as eight-point chalk. It was their second straight game holding the opponent to 45 points, which is "Virginia-like," however, we should note that those two opponents shot 32.7% and 37.2% from the field, respectively. In regards to that Virginia reference, the Hoos rank #1 in the country in defensive efficiency while the Wildcats aren't even the top 100! They actually rank much higher in offensive efficiency (39th), which surprised me. 

Equally as surprising is that St. Bonaventure ranks better in defensively in terms of efficiency. But they still average a healthy 76.7 PPG. They just gave up 87 pts in the loss to Rhode Island Saturday and it's not as if the Rams shot the lights out (only 46.8%). The Bonnies, picked to finish 2nd in the A-10 before the season, have been a disappointment thus far but I wouldn't give up on them just yet. They've averaged nearly 80 PPG their L5. Throw in that Davidson has averaged 83.0 PPG at home this season and we have what should be quite the high-scoring contest. 10* Over St. Bonanventure/Davidson

analysis soon

10* Michigan (9:00 ET): Coming off their huge upset of Michigan State last weekend, I played against the Wolverines on Monday night and was successful in doing so. They barely got by a short-handed Maryland squad (won 68-67 as 8-pt favorites), needing two free throws in the closing seconds just to pull out the SU victory. They even trailed by 10 at halftime and remember, the game was in Ann Arbord. But I can look past that as it was a pretty obvious letdown spot for the now-ranked (#23) Wolverines. Now that it's out of the way, they can concentrate on what appears to be - on paper - a pair of very winnable games coming up. Going back to early December, Michigan has lost only one game and that was by a single point to Purdue, who is perhaps the best team in the country right now. They won't lose here. 

Nebraska is the opponent tonight and the Cornhuskers are coming off three consecutive close games, two of them wins. They edged Illinois 64-63 (as 4-pt chalk) on Monday. Like Michigan's one-point victory that same night, the game was not decided until the final seconds. In Nebraska's case, it was a running three-pointer from James Palmer right before the buzzer sounded that gave them the win. That came on the heels of an overtime loss to Penn State last Friday where I once again faded the Cornhuskers. That was their 1st loss of the year in Lincoln, but I'll continue to maintain this team isn't all that impressive. They've really struggled offensively here in Big 10 play, connecting on only 39.5% of their field goal attempts. That's bad news against a Michigan team allowing just 62.8 PPG for the season.

You'd have to go all the way back to the start of the season to find the last time the Wolverines failed to cover in consecutive games. They're 2-0 SU/ATS thus far as a road favorite, including a win at Iowa earlier this month. Nebraska is still dealing w/ changes to its starting lineup as HC Tim Miles inserted two new starters for the Illinois game and they didn't really yield anything in the way of positive results. After getting a (needed?) scare from Maryland earlier in the week, I'll lay the points w/ Michigan here as they are simply the better team in this matchup. 10* Michigan

10* St. Louis (7:35 ET): There simply aren't many "bad" teams per se in the NHL this season (nor are there many dominant ones!), but I'd count Ottawa among those in the dubious group. Only Arizona and Buffalo, clearly the two worst teams, can claim fewer points and a worse goal differential. Therefore, coming off a rare win, the Senators make for prime fade material in this spot as they have to host a strong Blues team. An interesting tidbit here is BOTH teams beat Toronto in their previous game. Ottawa's win over the Maple Leafs came all the way back on 1.10 as the league has been giving extended breaks to all its teams. (St. Louis just won in Toronto two days ago after their own week off.) 

The Blues currently sit third in the ultra-tough Central, a division where only nine points separate last place from first place. It's a two-point gap between them and first place Winnipeg, so obviously a win tonight would be huge. It was a bit of a fortuitous win Tuesday in Toronto as they only were able to tie the game once they pulled the goalie and had an extra attacker in the final minute of regulation. But then again, the only goal they allowed came on a fluky, short-handed breakaway. Otherwise, it was a strong showing from goalie Carter Hutton. More than likely, Jake Allen will get the nod tonight, which is fine considering this team ranks 6th in goals allowed and he's the one that's started the majority of the games. 

Ottawa games have been absurdly high-scoring of late w/ each of the last four seeing at least seven total goals scored. Somewhat surprisingly, three have gone their way. But they still rank 29th in goals allowed and they may have the worst special teams in the league, ranking 28th in both power play percentage and penalty killing. It would take nothing short of a miracle for the Sens to make the playoffs as they are 15 points back of third place (guaranteed playoff spot) in the Atlantic and 12 back of the Wild Card, needing to jump several teams in the process. While the break allowed them to get healthier, Center Jean-Gabriel Pageau is still out. Unless the team "picks it up" in the short-term, they are widely expected to be "sellers" at the trade deadline and that can certainly have an adverse effect on a team's psyche. 10* St. Louis

10* Under Magic/Cavs (7:05 ET): Cleveland appears to be in some real trouble right now. Not only does their defense rank 29th in efficiency, but they've also now dropped four in a row, the most recent setback coming on MLK Day to rival Golden State (here at home). There's also no sugarcoating what a disaster the three-time reigning Eastern Conference Champs have been at the betting window. There, they're currently a league-worst 12-30-1 ATS including a horrific 6-26 ATS when favored! Therefore, laying the points here is out of the question, even though I do expect them to get back into the win column. The Cavs last win (back on Jan 6th) came against Orlando, but if there's going to be a difference between this game and that one it's that I anticipate far less scoring. Take the Under. 

Last time these teams hooked up, it was a 131-127 final. Cleveland was "humming along," until that 4th quarter that is, when they gave up 40 points to make what was a 20-point game all too close. The defensive issues persist, but no way do I see them giving up 127 pts again to this Magic team, who is still bottom seven in the legaue in offensive efficiency. That game saw both teams shoot exactly 50.0% from the field (rare!) and combine for 29 made three-pointers. It is highly unlikely that those numbers will be duplicated here. For what it's worth, Cleveland failed to even break 100 in its three games immediately following the win over the Magic. Their last two games, vs. Indiana and Golden State, have both stayed Under and both of those teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency (GSW obviously #1).

Orlando is probably in a letdown spot after a rare win as well. They stunned Minnesota two nights ago, winning outright as 8.5-pt home dogs, 108-102. It was just their second win since December 8th (yikes!) and only the fifth since November 10th (double yikes!). It was one of their better defensive efforts in some time, limiting the T'wolves to just 102 points on 43.9% shooting. The injury bug has bitten this team throughout the season and they'll come into this game likely w/o Arron Afflalo (suspension?) and Marreese Speights (personnel reasons). That's in addition to the already M.I.A. Nikola Vucevic, among others. This O/U line is simply too high. 10* Under Magic/Cavs

10* Under Penguins/Ducks (10:05 ET): What if - before the season - I told you that neither the Penguins or Ducks would make the playoffs? Right now, that's a distinct possibility as both birds are flying far lower than projected. Pittsburgh, having won four in a row, would be the final team in the Eastern Conference playoffs right now. Out West, Anaheim is on the outside looking in, four points back and needing to jump two teams. So this is a pretty important game for both. A decline offensively can be directly attributed to each team's struggles. The Pens are just 15th in goals per game and that number would be far lower if not for the league's top ranked power play. Anaheim is 25th in goals per game. 

But one positive for the Ducks this season is the other side of the ledger. They are 7th in goals allowed and 6th in penalty killing. Still, it is predictably difficult to win games when you can't score consistently. They scored only one time in a loss to Colorado Monday, their third loss in four games. In all three losses, they've been held to two goals or less. Four of their last five games have stayed Under as they have been one of the top Under teams in the league this season (29-15-1). That includes a 12-3 mark on home ice when the total is 5.5. They are also 10-3 Under off a loss by 2+ goals. John Gibson is expected to be between the pipes tonight and he has a .930 save percentage his L4 starts.

Has Pittsburgh found a goalie? Tristan Jarry has a remarkable .949 save percentage in six road starts. That's good because Matt Murray remains out w/ a personal issue. The Pens have scored at least four goals in every game during their current win streak and that many in five of their last six games. But the one loss during that stretch saw them get shutout. Beating the Rangers 5-2 despite going 0 for 3 on the power play Sunday was impressive, but they also scored five PP goals their three games prior to that. They have averaged 39 shots the last four games. But that should start to decline. But their penalty killing has been very good of late, including a 6 for 7 performance on Saturday vs. Detroit. 10* Under Penguins/Ducks

10* Under Jazz/Kings (10:05 ET): A matchup of two of the five "slowest" (in terms of # of possessions per game), one of them also being the lowest scoring team in the league, seems ideal for an Under play. Sacramento is dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and points per game. Utah is 28th in points per game (ahead of only Memphis and Sacramento). Neither team broke 100 pts in its last game, Utah losing to Indiana (at home) 109-94 and Sacramento losing to OKC 95-88. I simply don't see a lot of points being scored in this game either. Take the Under. 

One thing we can almost certainly count on in this game is better defense from the Jazz than what we saw from them vs. Indiana. They let the Pacers shoot 53.2% from the field, just the 4th time a Jazz opponent was better than 50% in the last month. Utah ranks 6th for the season in points per game allowed. Based on opponent adjustment alone, we can be confident in defensive improvement here. Sacramento shot below 40% in their last game and is the ONLY team in the league not to be averaging a full point per possession. HC Dave Joeger knows his team's "lot" and is consciously making the decision to "go young" while resting some of his veterans. Expect growing pains. Since December 8th, there have been only three times where the Kings have shot at least 50% from the field.

Utah is in the bottom six in points, rebounds and assists per game. They are just 4-15 SU overall the L19 games, a stretch which can be tied to the absence of Rudy Gobert. They have failed to score 100 pts in four of the last six games. The road has been quite unkind as they're only 4-18 SU this year. On average, their games are bottom five in the league in total points per game at just 202.5. (Only San Antonio, Memphis and Boston see fewer). The Jazz do not shoot the ball well as their FG% for the season is only 43.9% on the road. Sacramento, across the board, is the worst offensive team in the league. 10* Under Jazz/Kings

8* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): The Big East is a top-heavy league this year w/ four perceived NCAA Tournament "locks," these being two of them. Ironically, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Creighton ended up finishing ahead of Seton Hall in the standings when all was said and done. But, here, I think the Blue Jays are laying too many points. Sure, they should be highly motivated after being routed by Xavier over the weekend (92-70). But this is a Seton Hall team that's already beaten them once, 90-84 as five point favorites, and given that result and corresponding spread, I'm a little "miffed" by the oddsmakers call for this one. Revenge can often be overrated in this sport and if Creighton does win here, it would likely be by the slimmest of margins.

Prior to beating crushed at Xavier Saturday, Creighton's only loss in its previous 10 games was the one to Seton Hall. The Pirates have really had their number the last couple seasons, taking four of the previous five meetings. The last one, which saw both teams come in on the fringes of the Top 25, saw Seton Hall rally back from a 13-point 2H deficit. Since then, the Pirates' ranking has only continued to rise (currently #19). Creighton, meanwhile, won its next four games, but then was severely outclassed by Xavier. The Blue Jays committed 20 turnovers in the loss and second leading scorer Khyri Thomas was 0 for 8 from the field. This team is 40-18 ATS the last 58x it has been favored, plus 11-0 SU at home this year (averaging 93.5 PPG). So I understand, it's somewhat scary to fade them in this spot. But, realize that Seton Hall is 22-8 ATS the L30x it has been an underdog!

There have been only two instances of the Pirates getting points this season. They won both outright. Both were narrow wins, at Butler and at Louisville, but that's impressive nonetheless. Now, Seton Hall was recently routed as well, losing 84-64 at Marquette last week. But they quickly bounced back to take care of Georgetown, 74-61 as 12-pt chalk, on Saturday. The Pirates come in averaging a healthy 80.0 PPG themselves, so it will be difficult to defeat them by any kind of margin. These teams just seem so close that it seems foolish to want to lay points. 8* Seton Hall

8* New Orleans (7:35 ET): Admittedly, this seems like a difficult spot for the visiting Pelicans, who are off a pretty thrilling overtime victory last night in Boston. But a similar spot (albeit in a different sport) didn't deter me from taking Dallas in NHL last night and nor will it deter me here where once I again I simply bank on the fact that the road team is significantly better than its host. In this case, we only have to lay a short number to go against an Atlanta team that has the worst SU record in all of basketball at 12-31 SU. Seems easy enough, no?

Furthermore, it might be the Hawks that are in prime letdown mode here. On Monday, they upset San Antonio here at home, 102-99 (+5.5). Keep in mind that was a Spurs team that came into the game w/o Kwahi Leonard and then lost Manu Ginobili to injury in the 1st quarter. With an edge in both rebounds and fast break points, it seemed simply as if the Hawks "wanted" that one more than the Spurs did. But something to keep in mind is that this has not been a good team to bet when off a SU victory. They're just 1-10 SU in that role this season, 3-7-1 ATS. With the number so short in this one, a fade is heavily advised. 

New Orleans is looking for a fourth straight win here, which would be a season-high. This is the fourth time they've won three in a row. Anthony Davis has been just plain ridiculous lately w/ 93 pts and 33 rebounds the last two games. Yes, defensively, the Pelicans have their issues. Fortunate for them then that Atlanta isn't a great offensive team. Meanwhile, the Pelicans currently rank 7th in offensive efficiency (average 111.2 PPG). Something else to keep mind here is that New Orleans led Boston by double digits much of the way last night. So don't let the fact the game went into OT fool you. The Pelicans looked like the better side most of the way and that was against the #1 team in the league in defensive efficiency. They now have a winning road record this season. 8* New Orleans

8* Temple (6:00 ET): This is not the same Temple team we've been accustomed to seeing through the years. They have just one conference win; ironically it came at SMU, who had a 33-game home win streak at the time. That's probably the most shocking singular result we've seen in AAC play so far this season. Unfortunately for the Owls though, they couldn't follow up. Saturday saw them lose here at home, in overtime and at the buzzer to UCF, 75-72. They were 7.5-pt favorites as Memphis had not won a road game all season prior to that. In their last five games, the Owls have lost by three points or fewer three times. Similar to yday's winner on Northern Iowa, I find it "curious" that a team near the bottom of their conference would be favored like this. It worked yday, so I'll lay it again!

Tulsa hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire either. They come into tonight's game on a three-game losing skid. They did just take Wichita State to the limit on Saturday, losing only 72-69 as 12.5-pt home dogs. But I say it's fair to question what the Golden Hurricane will have left "in the reserve" here. They led by 10 in the first half, but attempting only five free throws (for the game!) really hurt. Also, while Tulsa may have started 3-0 in AAC play, let's remember how badly they were beaten last week in their most recent road game. It was a 104-71 loss at Houston. Their lone "true" road win this year came at Tulane on New Year's Eve. 

Temple actually has some revenge to exact here as they lost LY's only meeting, 70-68, right here in Philly. They also lost the second meeting of 2016, by 19, at Tulsa. With so many close calls in a 1-6 (SU) stretch, I have to believe the worm will soon "turn" for the Owls. Their shooting also has to improve, right? (Been below 35% three of the last four games). Tulsa allowed its opponents to shoot 55.2% and 50% in its previous two road games. Though they lost close last time out, the Golden Hurricane pulled off a number of close wins earlier in the year (beat UConn in 2OT), so their record could easily be worse. After playing well and coming up short against Wichita State, I see this being a major letdown spot on the road. 8* Temple

10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): Needless to say, it had been a very bad stretch of results for Northern Iowa prior to Saturday's 81-76 win and cover (were 4-pt favorites) over Missouri Valley newbie Valaparaiso. They'd lost seven in a row and four of those (all to MVC opponents) had come by seven pts or less. Truth be told, the Panthers' RPI (outdated metric) was always a bit misleading anyway, but still, no one expected these kind of struggles once conference play hit. Good news tonight though; they'll host perennial MVC doormat Drake, a team whose number UNI has had for many years now. The last four matchups - whether your're talking SU or ATS - have all gone the Panthers way and I think they'll make it five straight after tonight. Lay the short number.

Drake actually comes into tonight playing pretty well as they've won six of their last seven overall and are in first place in the Missouri Valley (5-1). Ironically, their lone conference loss came at the hands of Valparaiso, who is the only MVC team that UNI has beaten. But the Bulldogs have had a much different fortune in close games than has UNI, that being they're 3-0 SU in games decided by three points or less so far. It's pretty telling that the last place team in a conference would be favored over the first place team, even at home, isn't it? Drake used a strong 1st half to blow by Evansville over the weekend, 81-65, as they shot 54% from the floor. However, I think you still have to worry about this team away from home where they're just 4-8 SU (7-0 at home) and allowing 81.1 PPG. That includes "true" road games as well as neutral site affairs. 

Prior to beating Valpo, Northern Iowa had lost three in row here in Cedar Falls. That's after winning their first seven here. The key here will be pace of play. Drake is the most efficient offense team in the conference (so far) while Northern Iowa plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire country. I simply can't see teams continuing to make over 40% of their three-point shots against the Panthers moving forward. Nor can I see Drake continuing to shoot as well as it has to this point. Note that, at home, UNI still is allowing only 57 PPG. 10* Northern Iowa

8* Boston (7:35 ET): Without even playing, the Celtics have gotten a lot of help in their quest to finish atop the Eastern Conference this year. Both Toronto and Cleveland have been losing of late, so the Celtics (who have been off for five days) now have a four game lead over the former and 7.5 game lead over the latter. Not that Boston necessarily wanted the time off. They are unbeaten in 2018 and have won seven in a row overall. Their latest triumph came last Thursday over in London where they overcame a 22-pt deficit to beat Philadelphia, 114-103 as 1.5-pt favorites. Tonight's line is every bit as curious as that one was, considering the Celtics remain the top ATS team in the sport. Lay the points against an inferior opponent. 

New Orleans is looking like it might be a playoff team this year. They haven't made the playoffs since being ousted as the 8-seed (by Golden State) three seasons ago. Certainly, it's going to be a tight race w/ four teams battling for those final three spots in the Western Conference as the Pelicans, Clippers, Nuggets and Blazers come into today separated by just one-half game in the standings. So its an important game from the New Orleans side. The Pelicans come off B2B wins, beating Portland and the Knicks, but both games could have gone either way and Sunday's win over the Knicks required overtime. That was w/ 48 pts and 17 rebounds from Anthony Davis and the Pelicans also rallied back from 14 down to start the 4th quarter. It was a fortunate win.

Davis scored 36 against Portland, a game where the team shot almost 55% as a whole. Don't expect those kind of offensive number tonight though against a Boston team that leads the league in defensive efficiency by a comfortable margin. The Celtics are the ONLY team in the league that's allowing less than one point per possession. They are also 18-5 SU at home. New Orleans, meanwhile, is a terrible defensive team as they allow 111.0 PPG, third most in the league and not far from the bottom. Bottom line is that this is a bad matchup for the Pelicans, especially w/ it being their 2nd road game in three nights. Boston is both well rested and 5-1 SU the L3 seasons against New Orleans. 8* Boston

8* Dallas (7:35 ET): I readily admit that both of these teams made me "eat my words" their respective last times out. Detroit, as a big underdog on the ML, went to Chicago and shutout the Blackhawks 4-0 on Sunday. Dallas went into Boston yday afternoon and won 3-2, in overtime. Looking at the grand scheme of things here, I think you have to side w/ the Stars here. They are in the mix for a playoff spot (would be a Wild Card) in the very tightly contested Western Conference. Detroit faces a cavernous gap to get into the top three in the Atlantic Division and even a Wild Card in the Eastern Conference seems like a "fool's errand" at this point.

The Red Wings have only 15 regulation wins this year. That's fourth fewest in the entire league w/ only the bottom three teams (point-wise) having fewer. (Those would be Ottawa, Buffalo and Arizona). I've said it before and I'll say it again. This once proud franchise is actually fortunate that things haven't been even worse the last two seasons. Last year's fall would have been even greater if not for a ridiculously fortunate 9-0 SU record in shootouts. They're now 12-1 in SO's the L2 seasons, something that won't be sustained. (I keep waiting for them to lose a couple!). Saturday marked just their 2nd shutout of the season. Goalie Jimmy Howard led the way w/ 27 saves, but I hardly expect him to maintain his .946 save percentage from his previous four starts. 

In yday's analysis, I mentioned how Dallas hasn't been the same team on the road this year, so it may seem a little odd that I'd come back w/ them in this spot. However, they appear to have a massive edge offensively in this particular matchup (13th in goals per game, Red Wings rank 26th) and they had no problem beating Detroit down in Dallas earlier this year, 4-2. Ben Bishop saw only 25 shots that game and has played well of late (.930 save percentage L4 starts). Note that the Stars did lead Boston 2-0 yday before being taken into overtime. 8* Dallas

10* Over Blues/Maple Leafs (7:05 ET): Two quality third place teams meet here for the second and final time this season. The first time St. Louis and Toronto (old Norris Division rivals!) faced off, it was a high-scoring affair w/ the former prevailing 6-4 at home. I'm not saying tonight's game will be quite that high scoring, but another Over should be in the cards. The Maple Leafs are 7th in the league in scoring and have scored three or more goals in seven of their past nine games. As for the Blues, they are having issues keeping the opponent from finding the back of the net. In their L3 games, all losses, St. Louis has given up a total of 17 goals. While that might make it sound like the Leafs should be the call, I wouldn't be ready to "give up" on the Blues just yet.

Both teams are coming into tonight well-rested. St. Louis hasn't played in a week while Toronto has been off the last six days. In the case of the Blues, they needed their break. Last we saw them, they lost 7-4 to Florida. Giving up seven goals to the Panthers, quite obviously, is not good. It's not like allowing seven goals to any opponent is acceptable, but it's not like Florida is a high-scoring team. It was the fourth consecutive game that the Blues allowed 33 or more shots on goal. Goalie Jake Allen has really been struggling of late w/ an .870 save percentage in his last four starts. Maybe all the time off did him some good, but he did allow four goals the last time he faced the Maple Leafs.

As for Toronto, their front office stubbornly refused to adhere to a modern style of play for years and as a result they were somewhat of a laughingstock. Things have certainly change for the better here, but they too still give up far too many shots on goal. We're taking 33.8 per game, for the season. Earlier, I mentioned how consistent their offense has been. Well, the defense has been just as consistent(ly) - bad. Despite a 48-32 edge in shots, they lost to Ottawa 4-3 last Wednesday. Now, the good news is the number of shots they had against the Senators. It's unlikely that they'll be running into such a red-hot goaltender again here. Their own netminder Frederik Andersen seems to be overworked. Both coming off long breaks, each offense should be completely fresh and I expect plenty of fireworks here. 10* Over Blues/Maple Leafs

10* Over Warriors/Cavaliers (8:05 ET): Golden State is back to its high-scoring ways (7-1 Over L8 games) and that means big-time trouble for a Cleveland team that is absolutely atrocious defensively. The Cavs come into this game ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, ahead of only lowly Sacramento. So this looks to be a far greater mismatch than what we saw in LY's NBA Finals. Furthermore, the Cavs are reeling right now as they've suffered three consecutive losses, two of them (Minnesota, Toronto) by a combined 62 points and then they blew a 20+ pt lead Friday in Indiana. Perhaps the only silver lining here is that I expect them to shoot much better than they did X-Mas Day in Oakland. As a result, I'm on the Over here.

This is a battle of two top five teams in offensive efficiency. Golden State recently regained the top spot, overtaking Houston. They have averaged 117.2 points per over the L5 games and they're shooting better than 50% from the floor for the season. Steph Curry (returned Saturday) will play tonight, making them all the more dangerous. Saturday's 127-125 win over Toronto is a little misleading in that the Dubs led by as many as 27 (on the road!). They shot a blistering 58% from the floor, the third time in four games they shot 55% or better! Against an inept defensive team like Cleveland, they should be able to name their point total. This may seem like a really high O/U line (it is!), but the Warriors are 6-1 Over this year in games where the number is 230 pts or higher. 

Cleveland is the worst ATS team in the league and has shockingly failed to score 100 pts in three straight games. Prior to the loss to Indiana, they'd given up 127+ pts in three straight, which is quite obviously very terrible. While the defense will continue to struggle here, I do expect more from LeBron James and crew on the offensive end. The last time they faced Golden State (X-Mas Day), they shot just 31.8% overall, which made it a bit a miracle that they only lost by seven (no Curry for GSW though). The Cavs were actually 15 of 36 from three-point range in that game, but only 13 of 52 on two-point attempts! That latter figure will improve dramatically here. So too will GSW's three-point shooting from the last meeting where they went just 10 of 37 w/o Curry. 10* Over Warriors/Cavs

8* Florida State (7:00 ET): Truth be told, I got very lucky w/ the Seminoles on Saturday. Hosting Syracuse, they blew a 10-pt halftime lead and had to go to overtime. But OT was actually a massive break for me as I was laying the points and for most of the second half, it appeared as if they had little shot to cover. The same held true in OT. Thankfully, the game then went into double OT and that's where the 'Noles took over, outscoring the Orange by 11 and getting the shocking cover. Playing on the road 48 hrs later hardly seems like an ideal spot to follow up w/ a play on them, but Boston College I believe is "ripe for the picking here." The Eagles faced Dartmouth over the weekend, making this a large step up in class for them.

B.C. had lost three of four in ACC play prior to beating Dartmouth on Saturday. That includes a 30-pt loss at North Carolina in their last conference game. Dartmouth, predictably, was a much easier task, though the Eagles only led by three at halftime. They took over though after the break, thanks to guard Ky Bowman. Now B.C. did beat Duke here in Chesnut Hill earlier this season. They're 10-1 SU at home overall, outscoring opponents by 13 PPG. That one home loss came to Clemson, by four, right after the New Year. They've already faced most of the ACC heavyweights, not to mention a very good Texas Tech team in the non-conf portion of the schedule. However, I think it's important to remember this was just a nine-win team last season (already 12 wins TY!) including a 2-16 SU record in ACC play. I'm not sure they've improved to the point we should regularly expect them to be winning.

Florida State should still find itself in the Top 25 when the new poll comes out. That's despite sustaining close losses to both Miami and Louisville prior to outlasting Syracuse. There is some concern here w/ leading scorer Terrance Mann potentially out due to a concussion. But the 'Noles are deep enough to overcome that, at least against this opponent. In last year's lone matchup w/ B.C., they won by 32. Has that much really changed in one year's time? The 'Noles were 19-pt favorites for that matchup as well. They have covered 7 of the 10 times they have been favored this season. 8* Florida State

10* Maryland (6:30 ET): The Big 10 has become a lot more wide open, thanks to the sudden struggles of Michigan State. Michigan is one of the teams that recently beat Sparty, doing so on Saturday as they went into East Lansing and prevailed 82-72 as 9.5-pt underdogs. That impressive win for the Wolverines came on the heels of them losing by only one to mighty Purdue. Now comes the inevitable letdown though. It certainly seems dangerous to lay points w/ the Maize and Blue right now, given the emotion involved from the last two games. Maryland won't be lacking in motivation here as it was embarrassed at Ohio State on Thursday, 91-69. Having had the weekend off is a nice edge for the Terps. Take the points.

Maryland has actually suffered two bad defeats in its last three games, the other coming at Michigan State. But other than that, they've played well. They'd won eight of nine heading into the Ohio State game where they shot just 36.7% from the floor while allowing the Buckeyes to make 56.1% of their field goal attempts. Sure enough, bad defense was also the culprit in the loss to Michigan State, but the good news is the Terrapins are 9-2 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. They just covered in this spot, in between the losses to Michigan State and Ohio State, beating Iowa 91-73 last Sunday. Injuries have taken a big toll on this team recently, but I think the extra time off will be a big "boon" Monday.

Maryland hasn't played many close games recently, but they have been involved in six that were decided by six points or less this year. That includes two Big 10 victories, over Illinois and Penn State. Michigan comes in red hot, having won 8 of 9 w/ the only loss coming to Purdue. But this just seems like a good spot to fade as they're off a huge upset over a rival. They didn't cover their last game as a favorite, beating Illinois by only 10. Also, the last three meetings between these two have all been decided by seven points or less. Maryland won both games last year and I fully anticipate a close game at Crisler Arena tonight. In beating Michigan State, Michigan saw Sparty sink only three of 13 three-point attempts. Maryland will be more prolific than that tonight. 10* Maryland

8* Washington (2:05 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for Milwaukee (who really let me down yday) and third game in four days. An ugly showing Sunday in Miami (scored only 79 pts) made it four consecutive ATS losses (1-3 straight up), but they'll be getting no sympathy here from the Wizards, who are 0-5 ATS their L5 games and have revenge on their minds from a 110-103 loss to the Bucks right here in D.C. nine days ago. Note Washington has been a favorite in all five games it did not cover, so they still carry plenty of respect in the marketplace. They come in averaging a whopping 111.0 PPG at home and I really like this spot for them, given the scheduling set up and revenge angle. Lay the points.

Note that I actually played AGAINST the Wiz Saturday night when they hosted Brooklyn. I caught a major break w/ the Nets being able to force overtime as they trailed by as many as 23 pts. For Washington, that night found them playing in the second game of a back to back (just like Milwaukee here. A lack of consistency in closing out games is a bit of a concern w/ this Washington team as there have been multiple instances this year of them blowing double digit leads and losing. But, I think, being able to still win Saturday night is a step in the right direction. They never trailed in the game, despite it going to OT. Offensively, there are no issues with this team right now. Their top two scorers - Beal and Wall - shot a combined 12 of 38 in the 1st meeting w/ the Bucks, but I can't see that happening again given how poor the Bucks' defense has been of late. Opponents shoot better than 40% from three-point range, on the road, for the season. 

Milwaukee shot only 31.6% from the floor yesterday in its 97-79 loss at Miami. This team has been outscored on the year and is overrated. In fact, they have a worse YTD point differential than do the 16-25 Hornets! I just can't see the winning twice here in D.C. in a nine-day span. Yes, they'll probably shoot significantly better here compared to yday. But a decline in defense should offset that. Interestingly enough, the last visit to the Nation's capital saw the Bucks off a double digit loss and playing the second game of a back to back. But consecutive day games is a rare thing in this league and certainly won't help. 8* Washington