10* Over Braves/D'backs (9:40 ET): It's been a string of Unders for Arizona lately as their last 11 games have all ended that way. That's quite the streak, the length of which is pretty rare. It doesn't even include the fact that a series w/ Atlanta back in July saw all three games stay Under. These two playoff hopefuls rematch this weekend in the desert and for Thursday's series opener, I'm going to call for a higher scoring game than expected. Because Zack Grienke is pitching here for the D'backs, we're able to take advantage of a low number. Both he and Braves' starter Sanchez have each seen their last three starts all stay Under the total. In fact, Greinke is working on a streak of five straight Unders. Despite all you've just read though, the "law of averages" state that it's time for an Over. 

Greinke is obviously a stud. I mentioned earlier that his L5 starts have all gone Under. But, in three of them, he has allowed three or more runs. That may not sound like much, but w/ a low O/U line, it can be enough. A big problem for Arizona lately, however, has been the offense. Or rather lack of it. Prior to Tuesday's 6-0 win (Wednesday was an off-day), they had scored three runs or fewer in consecutive games. That's pretty hard to do. I just have to believe this team has some big offensive nights in them moving forward. 

Atlanta lost Wednesday afternoon, at home, 9-8 to the Red Sox. Thus, they ended up being swept in the series. In two of the three games, they allowed eight runs. So, as you can see, there is hope for the Arizona offense yet. Like the D'backs, their last game also happened to be the Braves' highest scoring effort in awhile. But Atlanta's offensive numbers are by no means bad and they average a solid 4.6 rpg on the road for the year. Anibal Sanchez is somehow w/o a win his L3 starts despite a 2.55 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. Lack of run support has been an issue w/ the Braves' offense scoring three runs or fewer in all three games. Somehow though, against all odds, I see this one sneaking Over the total. 10* Over Braves/D'backs

8* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): As stated in the promo, I went big on the Eagles when these teams met last January in the Division Round. Oddsmakers overcompensated for the fact Philly was starting Nick Foles - and not Carson Wentz - at QB. Turns out I was right as not only did the Eagles win that game, they would of course go onto win the Super Bowl. With Wentz still out and Foles off a shaky preseason, we're not quite where we were at back in January, but it's close. The Eagles' have gradually been bet down over the course of the summer due to uncertainty over the QB position. Now, as we prepare to start a new season, we're at a point where they sure like a great value at home - at least to me. I say lay the short number. 

The Eagles return most of the key nucleus that won them the Super Bowl. Remember that Foles was the QB for the entire playoff run and played masterfully. I think it would be a mistake to think he can replicate that kind of performance this season, but he shouldn't have to. With so few dollars invested at QB (Wentz still on a rookie deal, Foles working on cheap deal), the team was able to go out and build an impressive roster around the most important position. This is why they won the Super Bowl. Their offensive line may be the best in the league and could feature as many as FOUR Pro Bowlers. They are relatively loaded (by modern NFL standards) at the skill positions (note: Alshon Jeffrey won't play here). The defense gave up only 18.2 PPG a year ago. Let's also not write off the power of home field advantage. This team is 15-3 SU/13-5 ATS the L2 yrs at Lincoln Financial Field and will be celebrating the Super Bowl win before kickoff. 

Atlanta figures to be in a competitive race w/ rival New Orleans for NFC South supremacy this year. Last year, under 1st year OC Steve Sarkisian, the offense could not sustain its other-worldly production from the year prior w/ Kyle Shanahan calling plays. That 2016 season saw the Falcons almost win their own Super Bowl, but the key word there is "almost." This was also not a good road team in 2017 as they went 3-7 ATS. There's always been the issue of an offensive decline when you take Matt Ryan and company outdoors. Once again, oddsmakers and (especially) the public are making the mistake of underestimating Philly. I have the Super Bowl Champs defending home turf. 8* Philadelphia

8* NY Yankees (10:05 ET): This is certainly an outstanding pitching matchup we're getting tonight and it could very well be repeated if these two teams meet up in the AL Wild Card Game (which seems likely). Luis Severino comes in w/ a 22-6 TSR for the Yankees and has won each of his last three starts. He enters today looking to take over the MLB lead in wins as he's currently tied w/ Cleveland's Corey Kluber and Tampa Bay's Blake Snell. For Oakland, they'll send out Michael Fiers, who (thus far) has proven to be a tremendous acquisition at the trade deadline. Fiers has yet to lose since coming over from Detroit and has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts overall. However, he did look shaky his last time out and that could be problematic when facing a superior side like the Yanks. 

Severino made short work of the A's lineup earlier this year, allowing just one run on five hits in six innings. He finished w/ seven strikeouts and just to illustrate how the perception of the A's has changed in four months, they were HUGE underdogs in that game. Severino and the Yanks actually closed north of -300 on the money line! Now, that game was in the Bronx. With most teams, you'd expect them to perform better offensively at home. But not Oakland. Their runs per game average drops way down from 5.5 on the road (tied for 1st) to 4.1 at home. Severino has never lost to the A's in three career starts and is coming off a 10-strikeout effort in his last start. It's rare you can get him at this price.

As for Fiers, he's off his roughest outing in an Oakland uniform to date. He gave up three home runs - and five runs total - in just 3 2/3 innings vs. Seattle last week. Now the A's still were able to win that game, 7-5. But Fiers won't be able to get away w/ that statline against the Yankees, who already come in averaging 5.2 rpg. Fiers has not really pitched well in the past vs. NY w/ a 5.54 ERA in five starts. As a member of the Tigers, he faced them once earlier in the year (back in April) and it did not go well w/ Fiers allowing six runs. The Yankees are a solid road team (39-28 record) and should take this all-important "rubber match" Wednesday night. 8* NY Yankees

6* LA Dodgers (7:35 ET): The Dodgers still trail the Rockies (by one-half game) in the NL West entering Wednesday. They kept pace last night w/ a convincing 11-4 win over New York as Colorado also won (6-2 over the Giants), which was a game that I had. Arizona is lurking not far behind, just 1.5 games out. Moving forward, I fully anticipate LA taking control of this division as they have had the best run differential in the National League for most of this season (currently +133). We don't think of the Mets (-55 run diff) as a good team (nor should we!), yet the Rockies' YTD run differential (-10) is actually closer to the Mets than it is the Dodgers. This early Wednesday night start time at Chavez Ravine only speeds up the inevitable for the Mets tonight, the "inevitable" being a Dodgers win. 

This early start time could have an effect on the hitters as there will be shadows in the ballpark as the sun is setting. Runs already figured to be at a premium due to the pitching matchup, but I believe LA is likely to score more. They broke out for 11 runs last night, nearly equaling the number of times they had scored from the previous five games combined. Note that the Dodgers did have to rally back from an early 4-0 deficit and scored six times in the bottom of the seventh. Facing Zack Wheeler here will be a lot tougher than Jason Vargas was last night, but note Wheeler is 0-2 lifetime vs. the Dodgers w/ an ugly 11.00 ERA. One of those starts came earlier this year as Wheeler gave up four runs. Overall, Wheeler has struggled against the entire NL West as his TSR is 4-11 the L15 tries. 

The Dodgers are very good at run suppression here at home as they give up only 3.7 rpg. That's the third lowest total for any home team and tops in the NL. Hyun-Jin Ryu should continue the trend as he comes in sporting a 1.77 ERA and 0.869 WHIP at Dodger Stadium. Since coming off the DL last month, Ryu has posted a 2.42 ERA over 22 2/3 innings of work. He outdueled Zack Greinke here in his last start, allowing just two runs in seven innings. Ryu has also never lost to the Mets in five career starts, going 3-0 w/ a 1.69 ERA. This particular Mets team is 24th in runs scored and just 3-6 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. 6* LA Dodgers

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies are now in first place in the National League West thanks to the events of yday. They won while the Dodgers lost. Arizona also lost and they're now 1.5 games back (Dodgers one-half game out). Colorado being in first place is somewhat improbable when you consider they have been outscored this season (-14 run differential) while the run differentials of the Dodgers and D'backs are +126 and +79 respectively. Eventually, I do believe Colorado will fade. Just not tonight when they have German Marquez on the mound. Marquez has been simply phenomenal of late, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.591 WHIP his L3 starts. Go back and look at his last seven starts and Marquez has been just as dominant w/ a 2.17 ERA and 0.825 WHIP.

Over that seven start stretch, Marquez has 61 K's in 49 2/3 IP and only 10 walks. He's allowed just 31 runs, three homers and opponents are batting .177 against him w/ a .514 OPS. Last time out, he struck out 13 in a dominant performance against San Diego. Sadly though, the Rockies still lost the game, 3-2 Despite having one of the better Augusts of any starter in MLB, Marquez's team start record for the month was just 3-3, which is surprising. It's odd to see Marquez not really sharing in his club's overall good fortunate, but that still has time to change. By the way, the Giants come in having scored three runs or fewer in six of the last eight games. Their team batting average is below .200 during this stretch. Thus, it had to be really frustrating to put eight runs on the board yday and still come out on the losing end. I seriously doubt they'll get that many again here against Marquez. 

Coors Field can obviously aid a struggling offense, but that works both ways. The Rockies average 5.1 rpg here at home and are batting .280. The Giants, not a good offensive team to begin with, average just 3.5 rpg on the road. Their road record is lousy (29-41) and they've now dropped their L4 games in Denver dating back to a sweep that took place back in early July. Starting tonight for San Francisco will be Dereck Rodriguez, who has generally been solid this year. But he's never had to pitch in this environment before and that could mean trouble. The Rockies are 55-37 in night games this year and should roll to another victory Tuesday. 8* Colorado

8* Chi White Sox (8:40 ET): This is another matchup on the Tuesday card where we're seeing the line get bet up due to the starting pitcher. (Note: I'm playing two of them, this one and another, myself). In this instance, we have Lucas Giolito, who has started to come into his own of late. He hasn't been as dominant as rotation mate Carlos Rodon mind you, but he's at least starting to follow suit. The White Sox took yday's series opener from Detroit, 4-2, a game that featured only 10 total hits from the two teams. Giolito should do his part in ensuring this is potentially another low-scoring game as he checks in w/ a 2.33 ERA and 0.76 WHIP his L3 starts. Neither of these teams are good, but the Tigers are just brutal on the road (21-49), so give me Giolito & the Sox at home. 

Chicago is now ahead of Detroit in the AL Central standings, which may not be saying much, but at least it's something. This division is just BRUTAL w/ three teams (also the Royals) that seem destined for 95+ losses. The White Sox are now a game up after yday's win and perhaps finishing in third place is something that will motivate them moving forward. They had been 0-6 at home vs. the Tigers this season before Monday's win. They've now beaten the Tigers four straight times after dropping 10 of the first 13 matchups. Overall, the White Sox have not been bad of late, winning 8 of their last 11. That includes splitting a series w/ the mighty Red Sox over the weekend. Detroit is heading in an entirely different direction right now as they've dropped 8 of 10. 

Giolito has held opponents to a .181 batting average his L3 starts. He matched a season-high w/ 8 K's his last time out, however, the team still lost 9-4 to the Red Sox. But, don't blame Giolito, who held the top scoring team in baseball to just one run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings. It was his fourth straight quality start and fifth in the last six overall. He's beaten the Tigers twice during that span. Opposing Giolito tonight will be Francisco Liriano, who has been just the opposite of late. Liriano has a 9.53 ERA and 2.295 WHIP his L3 starts having surrendered a total of 17 runs in 11 1/3 IP. Five of those runs allowed were unearned, but still he's been pretty bad almost all season. The Tigers are just 7-14 in Liriano starts, including 4-10 on the road. He has an ERA above 5.00 and a WHIP above 1.50 for the year. The White Sox are actually 19-12 their L31 games and this seems like a pretty safe bet Tuesday. 8* Chi White Sox 

8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Reds +1.5. They lost again yday to the Pirates, 5-1. I use the word "again" because they were swept by the Bucs - at home - back in late July. At the time, Pittsburgh was in the midst of a rather random 11-game win streak. Take that away and the season has been decidedly subpar as the Bucs' record otherwise is just 56-71. The Reds had their own key streak this season, only it came early and was not good. They opened 2018 by losing 18 of their first 21 games, which got Bryan Price fired. Since then, they've been close to a .500 team, going 56-61 overall. Take out the starts made by Homer Bailey (1-18 TSR!) this season and the Reds' record is 58-61. So they're a lot closer to a .500 proposition than you might think. That and the revenge angle have me going +1.5 on this one. 

Now, the Reds have dropped 9 of 12 and ran into a hot pitcher yday in the form of Trevor Williams. Williams improved to 6-2 in his L9 starts for the Bucs and has posted a miniscule 0.66 ERA during that stretch. Tonight, they obviously won't have to worry about Williams. Instead, they face Joe Musgrove. He's given up nine runs in his last two starts, which have spanned just 10 innings total. He also allowed two home runs in both starts. Overall, the team has dropped five of Musgrove's previous six starts, getting shut out THREE times in the process. Williams being on the mound was the big reason I laid off this matchup on Monday. Without him on the hill though, the Pirates are simply not a team to be feared. Since the All-Star Break they are just 13-20 in games NOT started by Williams. 

Given the number of times they've been shutout w/ Musgrove starting, you can tell offense (rather, lack of it) has been an issue for Pittsburgh. Over the L7 games, they've averaged only 2.3 runs per while batting a collective .212. Before yday afternoon, they had not topped four runs in any game since 8.25. So, you can see where the +1.5 could possibly come in handy here and it certainly benefits a starter like Cody Reed, who will get the baseball for just a third time this season for the Reds. Reed was working on a limited pitching count his last time out when he gave up just one run and four hits. There will be no such limitation tonight. By the way, while the Reds are 0-2 in Reed's two starts this year, both losses were by one run. 8* Run Line Cincinnati +1.5

10* NY Mets (8:10 ET): The Dodgers are now back atop the NL West after taking three of four from Arizona over the weekend. All three wins came by the same final score (3-2) and required rallies in the team's final at-bat. LA has the best run differential in the National League (+128) and I thought it was only a matter of time before they reclaimed 1st place in this division. However, getting Mets' starter Jacob deGrom at this price is simply too good to pass up. I've been through this before, but evaluating deGrom simply by his record would be foolish. While only 8-8 in his 27 starts this year (11-16 TSR), deGrom gets my vote for best pitcher in the entire National League. His current ERA (1.68) would be the third lowest that the Senior Circuit has seen since 1968!

DeGrom also has delivered 24 consecutive starts of allowing 3 ER or less. That ties Dwight Gooden for the franchise record. DeGrom has also made 19 straight quality starts, meaning he's gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less. In August, deGrom was just plain ridiculous as he allowed just nine runs total in six starts, which spanned 43 2/3 innings. He had 60 strikeouts. His last two starts have come against Madison Bumgarner (Giants) and Cole Hamels (Cubs) and have seen him get virtually no support. The Mets scored just one time in both games and lost each time. But, they do enter this series off B2B wins over the Giants, having allowed only one run in both games. 

DeGrom will face Alex Wood tonight. Wood has battled through injuries here in 2018 and has posted some solid numbers. He has a 3.42 ERA in 14 starts, but that's simply not as good as deGrom. Wood did throw seven shutout innings in his last start, at Texas, but that was also the longest he'd gone in any start since the end of June. The Dodgers, shockingly, are only 38-34 at home this season. That includes a 5-10 record when the O/U line is 7 or less. That record is a reflection of an inability to beat the top pitchers here at Chavez Ravine. It doesn't get any better than deGrom this year and I think the Mets pull the "upset." 10* NY Mets

8* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): I have Florida State improving this season (went 7-6 SU LY), but this is a tough number to lay in the 1st game of the season. It's a new coaching staff in Talahassee w/ Willie Taggart replacing Jimbo FIsher, who elected to bolt to the greener pastures of Texas A&M. Taggart isn't walking into a bad situation by any means (he inherits TWO QB's w/ 12+ career starts); I'm just a little leery of his team being favored by this much in the first game, against a conference foe no less. Va Tech comes in off a 9-4 SU season and will have to replace a number of key players from one of the top defenses in the country a year ago. But they are ranked right behind FSU in the initial Top 25 poll, just one spot back at #20. I'm going to take the points here. 

Deondre Francois has been named the starting QB here for Florida State. If you recall, he was injuried in LY's season opener vs. Alabama, which is really what started the Seminoles' downfall. The team ended up losing six games, three as favorites, and barely made a bowl. Ending the year w/ a 42-16 win over Southern Miss in the Indepedence Bowl is hardly what the faithful had in mind back in August. The pressure is on Taggart to bring the program back to prominence, which should happen in due time. I'm just not sure we should be expecting any kind of "blowout" in the first game, however. The 'Noles are just 4-11 ATS in conference play the past two seasons. 

I was surprised to find that these schools last met all the way back in 2012. They're not in the same division, but still, you might have expected a matchup in an ACC Championship Game. But w/ Clemson having passed FSU by in the Atlantic, the Noles haven't even won their division since 2014. Va Tech lost to Clemson in the 2016 ACC Title Game, HC Justin Fuente's first season in Blacksburg. They failed to get back last year even though they ended up losing the same number of overall games (4). Josh Jackson returns at QB for the Hokies and they should be better offensively than last season. Defensively, they likely won't be as strong due to all the departures, but they traditionally field a strong stop unit, year in and year out. 8* Virginia Tech

6* Cleveland (4:10 ET): Kansas City did something over the weekend that they'd only previously done one other time this season. That's sweep a series of three games or more. Now, the victim was Baltimore, who happens to be the only team in all of baseball w/ a worse record than the Royals. The series was also in KC. Overall, the Royals have won five straight and seven of eight dating back to a series w/ the Indians last month. But the entirety of that win streak came at home. On the road, the Royals are a disgraceful 20-46, including 5-20 when priced at +175 or higher. The last time they swept a series, they'd go onto drop 14 of the next 19 games. Despite losing two of three to Tampa Bay here at home over the weekend, this spot sets up well for Cleveland. 

The Tribe are in a bit of a unique position as they'll almost certainly be the first team to clinch a playoff spot. This is owed to the fact that the division they play in (AL Central) is easily the worst in all of baseball. They've got a 14-game lead entering Monday and have certainly feasted on the rest of the Central, going 40-20 for the season. They're 8-4 vs. the Royals. Adam Plutko will get the starting nod this afternoon and while he's 0-3 w/ a 5.27 ERA his L6 appearances (four starts), I look for a strong performance. The Kansas City offense has scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball while also ranking 25th and 26th respectively in OBP and slugging. The Royals have not faced Plutko this year and he has a 0.978 WHIP in five home starts.

Kansas City has basically been terrible in all situations this year, including a 17-33 mark in day games. Cleveland is 32-19 in day games. The Indians are the second highest scoring home team in all of baseball this year (trail only Boston), averaging 5.5 rpg here at Progressive Field. So they should take advantage of Royals starter Jake Junis, whose two starts this year vs. Cleveland have both been bad. The last one was a complete disaster as, back on July 2nd, Junis allowed nine runs in just 5 1/3 innings. Earlier in the year, he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. I simply don't see the Royals continuing to win. Their five-game win streak came against Detroit and Baltimore, two of the very worst teams in all of baseball. 6* Cleveland

8* Run Line Miami (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Marlins +1.5. Philadelphia was dealt a cold dose of reality over the weekend as they dropped two of three to the Cubs. Yesterday's loss was the more significant one as they went down 8-1, which was Aaron Nola's first loss of the season at Citizens Bank Park. It was a disappointing homestand overallgfor the Phils, who went just 2-4 so far against the Cubs & Nats. That leaves them 3.5 games back of the Wild Card and 4 back of the Braves in the NL East. The team probably still feels fairly confident heading into this series against last place Miami, but the bottom line is Philly isn't that good on the road (29-38 overall) and has actually now been outscored by nine runs over the course of the season. Miami has revenge as well. Take the +1.5. 

The Marlins have dropped five of their last six as the end to this miserable season probably can't come soon enough. That one win came Saturday vs. Toronto. Despite the Fish's current standing, there is at least a cursory attempt to sound motivated. "We are going to be playing teams that are contending for the postseason," said Marlins infielder Martin Prado. "I hope we start a winning streak." Jose Urena will be the starter today and while his won-loss record is not good (4-12 in 26 starts, 7-19 TSR), he's pitched better than his record, especially of late. He's got an 0.867 WHIP his L3 starts, which includes a complete game masterpiece at Washington where he allowed just one run on two hits. While Miami was swept up in Philly last month, they had gone 5-4 against them previously this season. 

The Phils' road woes figure to catch up w/ them here and the fact of the matter is this probably is not a playoff team. Having a run differential of -9 for the year certainly isn't indicative of being postseason-worthy, not when some of your competition has run differentials of +103 (Braves) or +128 (Dodgers). There are actually SEVEN teams in the NL alone that have better YTD run differentials than the Phillies. Vince Velasquez toes the rubber this afternoon for them and he has not been particularly effective of late. It's been four straight outings where he hasn't gotten out of the fifth inning and as a result he's got a WHIP that isn't looking very good. He was able to shutout Miami for 6+ innings last month, but that was at home. On the road, Velasquez's team start record is only 4-8. I believe the Marlins won't do any worse than a one-run loss today. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

6* Houston (8:05 ET): The Angels came into this series w/ revenge on their minds and even exacted some as they took the first two games, including a win over Justin Verlander. But the Astros were able to bounce back last night w/ a 7-3 win and can now earn themselves a series split with another victory Sunday night. They'll have Gerritt Cole on the mound and that gives them a great chance. While Houston hasn't been nearly as dominant as they ought to be this season, they've still outscored the opposition by 219 runs, which is neck and neck w/ Boston for tops in all of MLB. They should have more wins and they'll get one here. 

Cole has pitched well this year, especially at home where he has a 2.90 ERA and 0.932 WHIP. The Angels have failed to top three runs in seven of their past nine games, so this should be a relatively easy assignment. Cole did serve up two home runs his last time out, but still won easily, 11-4. He was much stronger in his previous home start as he went six innings and finished w/ 12 strikeouts. Cole hasn't beaten the Angels this year in two tries, but the third will be the charm. 

Oh, by the way, Shohei Ohtani is returning to the mound tonight for the Halos. That should be a bigger deal, but the reality is the team is out of contention. This is a tough first start back after not being in the role for three months. Ohtani has been used as a DH (two-way player!) and has gotten bullpen sessions in. But keep in mind that the Astros were able to rough him up back in April when he was a regular part of the rotation. The Angels have struggled against the top teams all season (22-42 vs. opponents w/ a winning record) and they are just 6-14 when priced above +125 on the road. 6* Houston

10* Miami FL (7:30 ET): I don't think that LSU is going to very good this year. Actually, let me rephrase. I don't think they'll perform up to the usual standard set down in the Bayou. HC Ed Orgeron enters 2018 firmly on the hot season despite having just one full season under his belt and winning nine games. That's life in the SEC West though and the Tigers figure to finish closer to the bottom of the division than to the top (where Alabama is king). Miami won its division last year, the ACC Coastal, but was too banged up to compete w/ Clemson in the Conference Championship. Mark Richt has a lot more optimism surrounding him than Orgeron does as his first year was the Hurricanes' best in a long time. I'll lay the points in this one. 

These schools have met just twice in the past 30 years. Both were blowouts coming at a time when one program (and not the other) was dominant. Miami won 44-3 back in 1988 while LSU returned the favor w/ a 40-3 beatdown in the 2005 Peach Bowl. This one looks a lot more even on paper as both come in ranked in the Top 25. But Miami is a top 10 team (#8) while LSU seemed to slide into the backend of the poll based on repuation alone. The Tigers have just four seniors in the starting lineup (that's both sides of the ball) and are one of the least experienced teams in the entire country. Their QB (Joe Burrow) is a transfer that didn't even start practicing w/ the team until the Spring. 

On the flip side, Miami has a fifth-year senior QB in Malik Rosier. They have 14 returning starters overall and are far more experienced up and down the roster. I think LSU's revamped offense is going to really struggle in this game. They don't have a great running back to lean on like in year's past and will struggle to move the chains in this one. 10* Miami FL

8* Run Line Cincinnati (2:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Reds +1.5. Cincy knocked St. Louis off yday, 4-0, temporarily putting a halt to the Cardinals' recent winning ways. The Redbirds come into Sunday still having won 10 consecutive series, a pretty remarkable achievement when you think about it. They are also out in front in the NL Wild Card race. Cincinnati was pretty much the first team eliminated from playoff contention in 2018, thanks to a 3-18 start to the season. But they've basically been a .500 team ever since and if you take out the starts made by Homer Bailey, they're also basically a .500 team. I don't think they'll do any worse than a one-run loss here on Sunday. 

The Reds won last night on the back of starter Luis Castillo, who combined w/ two relievers to throw a two-hit shutout. I'm not sure it would be right to expect the same this afternoon from Anthony DeSclafani, but he had a pretty effective August. Three of DeSclafani's five starts last month saw him go at least seven innings while allowing one run or less. The team won all of them and is actually 5-1 his L6 starts. He has given up 4 ER in B2B outings, but I'd look for him to be better today. He is 5-2 all-time vs. the Cards w/ a 3.30 ERA. 

Another reason to like Cincy here is the recent string of performances from St. Louis' starter Luke Weaver. He's posted a 1.783 WHIP, which is very high, over his L3 outings. He's been used sparingly as a starter of late (moved to the bullpen) due to general ineffectiveness. On the road this year, he has a 5.11 ERA and is just 1-5 in 11 starts. His bullpen performances have been better, but I don't expect him to last long today even though he's never lost to the Reds. His 3-0 career record against Cincy is misleading as Weaver's ERA is 5.16. I look for the road team to surprise in this one. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Philadelphia (1:35 ET): The Phillies and Cubs have split the first two games of the series w/ the rubber match taking place early this afternoon at Citizens' Bank Park. If you recall, I had the Phillies as my *10* Game of the Week back in Friday's opener. They won 2-1. A lack of offense caught up w/ them yday, however, as they went down 7-1. Looking at the pitching matchup for Sunday (Lester vs. Nola), runs figure to be at a premium yet again. But I'm back to the Phils as they have Aaron Nola, who has yet to taste defeat at home all season! This is an absolutely critical game for them as they've fallen behind in the races for both the NL East and Wild Card. 

Technically, Nola has tasted defeat once here at home. It was his last start as the Phillies fell 5-4 to the Nationals in excruciating fashion. But Nola didn't factor into the decision as the loss was clearly the bullpen's fault. Nola threw seven strong innings, giving up just two runs on four hits. The end result dropped his team start record to 12-1 at Citizens' Bank Park this season. Personally, he's 9-0 w/ a 1.94 ERA and 0.977 WHIP. Overall, it has been a great season for Nola (2.10 ERA, 0.966 WHIP) and he's been even sharper of late (0.82, 0.727). He was moved up a day in the rotation here because of the importance of this game. The Phillies have not won a series in four weeks and clearly the move to turn to Nola reflects they are treating today of the utmost importance. 

The Cubs counter with Jon Lester. He's had the Phillies' number throughout his career, but keep in mind that those were also some bad Phillies teams he'd been facing. He has not faced them in 2018. Like Nola, Lester has been very good of late as the Cubs have won each of his last three starts. But this just might be his toughest assignment of the season. Nola doesn't lose at home and it seems as if the Phillies are all in at home. Remember that Philly is a strong home team overall (43-25) and that includes a 21-7 run vs. lefties. 8* Philadelphia

8* BYU (10:45 ET): They're not used to having "down" seasons in Provo, but Brigham Young definitely had one in 2017, going just 4-9 SU. That just doesn't happen around here as it was the program's first losing season in a LONG time. Expect HC Kalani Sitake to turn things around for 2018, however, despite another relatively challenging schedule. In addition to this game, the Cougars will pay visits to Wisconsin, Washington and Boise State this year. For this opener w/ Arizona, I expect them to have the advantage in the trenches and that will go a long way in covering as a double digit dog. Take the points. 

The reason I'm so optimistic about BYU's prospects up front in this game is the reports I'm hearing out of camp. The offensive line looks to be a major weakness for Arizona as it isn't particularly big or experienced, two things that the BYU defensive line is. There is a ton of optimism in Tucson right now w/ Kevin Sumlin replacing Rich Rodriguez. QB Khalil Tate was one of the most exciting players in college football last season. But the Wildcats closed the season by losing four of the last five games as defenses started to get more film on him. They didn't exactly play the most challenging Pac 12 schedule last year, avoiding both Stanford and Washington from the North Division. The defense has nine starters back, but hasn't allowed fewer than 34 PPG any of the last three seasons.

Three of the six starters lost in the desert are along that offensive line. BYU has the edge defensively in this matchup, which is something you have to like when getting double digits. BYU QB Tanner Mangum is now a senior and should improve under a new OC whose system is a better fit for his talents. As excited as the Arizona fanbase might be about Sumlin, Texas A&M couldn't wait to run him out of town as he never could replicate that first season (2012) where he went 11-2 SU. Every subsquent year saw A&M win fewer or the same number of games as the previous one. The Aggies also traditionally fielded bad defenses under Sumlin. The team he inherits here isn't as talented as his best A&M teams. 8* BYU

8* Michigan (7:30 ET): One of College Football's more storied rivalries is renewed on this first weekend of the 2018 season and I, for one, can't wait. This is a real "do or die" season for Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh as his Wolverines fell to 8-5 SU last season (lost final three games). He's yet to beat rival Ohio State and is a combined 1-5 SU against the Buckeyes and Michigan's "other" rival, Michigan State. Quite simply, progress HAS to be made in Ann Arbor in 2018. As for Notre Dame, they are coming off a 10-3 season and at one point were 8-1 SU and ranked #3 in the country. Expectations are sky high in South Bend right now, but I believe the Fighting Irish is poised to let down the faithful w/ a season-opening loss Saturday night. 

When he was the HC at Stanford, Harbaugh was fortunate to have Andrew Luck. When he made the jump to the NFL, he made both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick temporary stars. Here in Ann Arbor, he's yet to really have a quality signal-caller. That changes this year w/ Shea Patterson's arrival. Patterson was poached from Ole Miss in the wake of Hugh Freeze's disgraceful exit. Since the day he first stepped on campus, Patterson immediately became the best QB the Wolverines have had during Harbaugh's tenure. Surrounding Patterson is an experienced team w/ 17 returning starters. The defense is going to be very good, possibly the best in the entire country. Last year, despite only ONE returning starter, Don Brown's group yielded just 271 yards and 18.8 points per game. This year, they have 14 of the top 16 tacklers back and have - on paper - the best secondary in the entire country. Points will be hard to come by against Michigan this year. 

Notre Dame should also have a good defense w/ nine returning starters back on that side of the ball. They didn't allow any of their first eight opponents to score more than 20 pts a season ago. But then they allowed 37+ in three of the final four regular season games. I also question the offense. In their three losses last year (to Georgia, Miami and Stanford), the Irish could manage only 19, 8 and 20 pts. They will be facng an even stronger defensive unit here. After jumping from four to 10 wins last year, I do NOT see ND matching their win total from '17. As big as this game is to Brian Kelly's tenure, I get the feeling that it's "all on the line" here for Harbaugh, who risks losing the fanbase w/ a fourth straight loss. Look for the Wolverines to pull this one out. 8* Michigan

8* Boston (7:10 ET): This is probably as cheap a price as we could ever hope to get on the Red Sox when playing the White Sox. Some of that is they lost last night here at Guaranteed Rate Field, 6-1. Another component is they'll have to face Carlos Rodon, a starter that is having a strong year on a bad team. The White Sox have a 5-0 TSR in Rodon's last five starts, including a win as +215 ML underdogs against the Yankees his last time out. Going back even further, Rodon is unbeaten over his L9 starts (5-0) w/ a 1.84 ERA. But Boston has its own starter with a solid resume, that being Eduardo Rodriguez, heading to the mound. Prior to going on the DL, Rodriguez hadn't allowed a single run in three starts! My call is that Boston bounces back tonight. 

Rodriguez will have to "shake off the rust" as he hasn't pitched since before the All-Star Break. Those last three starts, which came against Toronto, Texas and Washington, saw him pitch 17 scoreless innings and give up just 10 hits. He reportedly looked sharp in a rehab start down in the minors. Helping ease his return back into the rotation will be a Boston offense that continues to pace the league in scoring (5.5 rpg). The Red Sox have surprisingly struggled to hit White Sox pitching the first two games of this series. All nine of their runs Thursday came in two innings (five in the ninth). Other than that, they've scored just one time in the other 16 innings. I look for that to change here, however. 

Beating the Yankees and Red Sox in consecutive starts would be an impressive feat for Rodon, but I don't see it happening. The team is still only 19-41 this season taking on an opponent w/ a winning record. Note that there was a long rain delay in yday's game. Rodon has never beaten Boston in three career tries, posting a 3.38 ERA. Earlier this year, he took a loss after allowing four runs in five innings to them. Bottom line is Boston is still 50 games above .500 and tied for the best run differential in all of MLB (+215). Chicago is 27 games under .500 w/ a -135 run differential. Only four teams have worse records and only three have been outscored by a larger margin this season. All things considered, this is a great price on the favorite. 8* Boston

10* Miami OH (3:30 ET): This was a matchup I played on the opening week of last season. Only I took Marshall as a slight home favorite and they were able to win and cover in a 31-26 final. This year, the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" and I'm going w/ Miami in a revenge spot. The role reversal here is actually quite amazing. At this time last year, optimism was high in Oxford where the RedHawks had just become the first team in NCAA history to start a regular season 0-6 and then finish 6-0 (this was 2016). They lost their bowl game that year, but came into '17 thinking MAC East Title. It didn't happen as they finished a disappointing 5-7 SU (no bowl). Meanwhile, I was high on Marshall at this time last year as they were off a disappointing 3-9 SU campaign in '16 and poised to rebound. Sure enough they did as that season opening win over Miami propelled them to an 8-5 SU season. 

This year, it's Miami's turn to improve while Marshall should decline. Sure, the Thundering Herd do bring back 18 starters for HC Doc Holliday. But one of them is NOT QB Chase Litton, who opted to declare for the NFL Draft. Only problem is Litton wasn't drafted! That hurts not just the player (can't come back), but the school as Litton was a 3,000+ yd passer a year ago. Replacing that kind of production will not easy. The job will likely go to Alex Thomson, a 6'5" grad transfer from FCS Wagner. But he's been limited during summer practice as he missed most of the 2017 season due to a shoulder injury. Marshall has a new offensive coordinator as well. I won't be shocked if this team regresses offensively and even more so defensively. Last year, they went from allowing 35.3 PPG all the way down to 19.9.

Miami was unlucky last year as four of their seven losses came by five points or less. One was to Marshall, a game that saw the Thundering Herd score THREE non-offensive touchdowns, yet still need to bat down a Hail Mary attempt on the game's final play. The RedHawks severely outgained the Herd in that game, 429-267. They enter '18 w/ a senior QB (Gus Ragland) and eight returning starters on both sides of the ball. They certainly haven't forgotten how last year's game went down. Getting this meeting at home is huge. Marshall is generally not a good road team, losing 9 of its last 10 road openers. The home team has covered the last six head to head meetings. After cashing Marshall LY, I say it's Miami's "turn" to open 2018 w/ a big win! 10* Miami OH

10* Washington (3:30 ET): This is a huge opening week matchup with CFP implications. The game takes place in Atlanta. Washington enters the year as the favorite to win the Pac 12. Were they to win here, they'll be favored in every remaining game. Auburn is coming off a highly successful season where they won 10 games, including regular season victories over the two SEC teams, Alabama & Georgia, that made the playoff (lost rematch to UGA in SEC Title Game). The Tigers are the slight favorite here despite being ranked slightly lower, but it wasn't always that way. Over the summer, UW opened as a short favorite. I believe Auburn is going to be a bit of a disappointment in 2018 and will gladly take advantage of the line "jumping the fence" here. Go with the Huskies.

Remember that Washington is just two years removed from making the playoff. I called for them to get there in 2016 and will do so again in 2018. Part of the reason I like them so much is they're experienced. Chris Petersen (great coach) has 17 returning starters back and this one of the 10 most experienced teams in the country. The defense should be outstanding again. They allowed only 16.1 PPG a year ago (playing in the Pac 12!), which was fewer than Auburn. They've now allowed 18.8 PPG or fewer each of the last three seasons. On offense, they return Jake Browning at QB and Myles Gaskin at RB, both seniors. I believe that this is Petersen's best team yet, including the one that got to the CFP two years ago. The Huskies are not underdogs very often, so we're looking at a solid value here. 

Auburn is a good team, but I feel that there are some signs pointing down. For starters, they aren't quite as experienced as they were a year ago. With the game being in Atlanta, many will speak of a "homefield advantage" that exists for Auburn. I'm not so sure of that as the Tigers' L2 games came on this very field (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) and they lost both games, the SEC Title Game to Auburn and the Peach Bowl to UCF. Jarrett Stidham enters his second year as the starting QB, but he'll be surrounded by new pieces at the skill positions. Kerryon Johnson, the team's leading rusher from a season ago, departed. At receiver, both Eli Stove and Will Hastings tore their ACL's in the spring and thus will be unavailable at the start of the spring. They could overcome that against a lesser opponent to start the season, but not a top 10 one. 10* Washington

8* Oregon State (12:00 ET): To be clear, the Beavers aren't good. But judging by the spread, you probably already knew that. They were probably the worst Power 5 team in the country last season and a case could be made that the same will hold true in 2018. But, given all that has transpired with Ohio State the last few weeks, would you want to lay this number? I wouldn't. Now if Urban Meyer were coaching here, I'd just as soon lay off the game. Meyer, one of the best ever, would be more than capable of motivating Ohio State to win by a ton in this season opener. But Meyer won't be on the sidelines here, nor the next two weeks. That will be the backdrop Saturday afternoon in Columbus as Ryan Day will be acting coach for the Buckeyes. Hold your nose and take the boatload of points.

Oregon State won just one game last season. It was against FCS Portland State. HC Gary Anderson surprisingly resigned midway through the year and it was a lame duck team the rest of the way. Jonathan Smith takes over in Corvallis and obviously has a lot of work to do. The ONLY game the Beavers will be favored to win comes next week, against Southern Utah, another FCS school. I do believe that somewhere along the way the team will pull an upset. It won't be here, mind you, but I do believe the team will come out motivated. The 6'7" Jake Luton has been name the starting QB and there are 15 returning starters. Oregon State may not have been very competitive in 2017, but they had only one loss by more than 31 points and that was the finale against Oregon when most of the players (particularly the seniors) had mentally checked out. 

Ohio State fans always seemed to have a love/hate relationship w/ QB J.T. Barrett. He is now gone and sophomore Dwayne Haskins takes over the starting reigns. Haskins has game experience from last year, including leading the comeback against rival Michigan. But being the starter is an entirely different animal. In the past two season, the Buckeyes are just 1-3 ATS when favored by 31 points or more. Conversely, Oregon State covered both times it has been a dog of 31 or more. Too much has to go right for a team to cover a spread of this magnitude and I just don't see it happening for Ohio State in a season opener w/ Meyer MIA and all the distractions surrounding that. 8* Oregon State 

8* Texas State (12:00 ET): Everett Withers enters his third year as the HC in San Marcos. Texas State obviously has a lot of work to do as they've won just 2 games each of his first two years on the job. But the good news is that coaches typically hit their stride in year three as they've done the vast majority of the recruiting. This should be the best Bobcats' team we've seen under Withers. Turnover margin was a killer for Texas State last season (-15) as I didn't think they were as bad as the numbers might suggest - on either side of the ball. I like the points here as Rutgers rarely is favored by this many - against anybody. Chris Ash is also entering his third year as HC of the Scarlet Knights, but this will be just the fifth time his team has been favored to win! Take the points. 

Two of the four times Rutgers was previously favored under Ash came against FCS schools. This will be the 1st time being favored by double digits against a FCS school. Last year, the Scarlet Knights lost outright - here at home - to Eastern Michigan. They have just one double digit win in Ash's tenure, that coming LY at Illinois, 35-24. So history isn't exactly on the Scarlet Knights side heading into the season opener. Their depth on the defensive end was weakened by a credit card scandal. An offense that put up only 18.0 PPG a year ago isn't exactly built to cover large spreads. Don't discount the notion that the players may be looking ahead to next week's tilt at Ohio State (who won't have Urban Meyer) either. 

Texas State's numbers defensively were not good last year. They ranked near the bottom nationally, but should be much improved in 2018. The run defense was actually around the top 40 last season, so their already fine in that regard. The talk coming out of camp is that the secondary will be the most improved position group on the team. If that's the case, the Bobcats should be in fine shape here. Rutgers will be starting a true freshman at QB Saturday, Arthur Sitkowski, a 4-star recruit. Again, and this has been a theme throughout this three-game report, I'm just not interested in laying double digits with a first time starter at the most important position. Two years ago, in Withers' first game, Texas State shocked Ohio as 20-pt road underdogs. I think they'll be more than competitive here. 8* Texas State

8* Florida Atlantic (12:00 ET): Under the tutiledge of Lane Kiffin, FAU took the College Football world by storm last year. They went 11-3, including 8-0 in Conference USA where they were heads and shoulders above every other team. A lot of people, myself included, were on that bandwagon as the Owls entered last season as the most experienced team in the country. They rewarded their backers by going 10-4 ATS at the betting window. Now they'll enter 2018 as the favorite not only to win C-USA, but also to possibly represent the "Group of 5" in a "New Year's Six" Bowl Game. I believe a decline from LY is all but inevitable, but that doesn't mean I think they're three touchdowns worse than Oklahoma, a team w/ its own question marks. Take the points here.

Like Kiffin, Lincoln Riley walked into an ideal situation his 1st year on the job. He took over for the legendary Bob Stoops, but was inheriting a fairly experienced Sooners' squad led by eventual Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is now gone and we'll get a chance - for the 1st time - to see how Riley's offense operates w/o him. My guess is that things will work themselves out in Norman. But in the first game? Kyler Murray is the replacement at QB and won't come close to Mayfield's production of a season ago. Then there is the losses sustained on the defensive side of the ball. This will be far from a dominant group and there really isn't a standout player. The OU defense surrendered 27.1 PPG a year ago, but was consistently bailed out by an offense that averaged 40+ PPG for a third straight year. It'll take a lot of points to cover this spread and I'm not sure OU is capable at this point. 

FAU also has to replace LY's starting QB (Jason Driskell). Heading into Saturday, Kiffin is being rather coy about just who that replacement will be. It'll be one of two transfers: either Chris Robinson, ironically from Oklahoma, or DeAndre Johnson from Florida State. The issue of not know which QB to prepare for will hurt the OU defense. Whomever the QB is for FAU can lean on RB Devin Singletary, who ran for 1922 yards and 32 touchdowns last season. Remember that the Sooners defense was gashed badly by Georgia in LY's College Football Playoff. FAU also returns 10 starters on defense, so they will be strong on that side of the ball. I look for the underdog to score enough to stay well within this generous opening week number. 8* Florida Atlantic

8* Texas (8:05 ET): At first glance, it doesn't seem like there's any reason to play this matchup of also-rans. But the Rangers have the advantage of being off yday while the Twins were in Cleveland. Furthermore, Minnesota has been a very bad road team all season and this is a great price to fade them. Last night's 5-3 loss dropped them to 23-42 away from home this year. There are only three teams in the American League w/ a worse win percentage on the road. Texas' home record isn't that great due to all the runs they give up, but I believe they can take advantage of Stephen Gonsalves, whose two starts for the Twins thus far have not gone "according to plan." In what could be a high-scoring game, look for the Rangers to outscore the Twins tonight. 

The Rangers enter this game on a four-game losing streak, all against the NL West. They just got swept in a short-two game series by the Dodgers, but let's face it, they were outclassed there. They're hitting just .196 over the last week, but the matchup w/ the struggling Gonsalves should set them straight. For the year, Texas averages 5.4 runs per game at home. That's the fourth highest average in baseball. Their record is a reflection of how poor the pitching has been and I concede that tonight's starter - Drew Hutchinson - hardly inspires a ton of confidence. Hutchinson allowed six runs his last time out, the second time he's done that in his four starts. But he was okay in the other two. Minnesota's lineup is not to be feared either as they've totaled just 13 runs in the last six games. 

I've alluded to it multiple times already, but Gonsalves' two starts so far have been BRUTAL. He has an 11.37 ERA and 3.002 WHIP. I'm not sure I've ever seen a WHIP that high. In 6 1/3 IP, he's allowed eight runs and 19 baserunners. The day off is a nice edge for the home team here and before you question the price, note the Rangers are 9-4 this season when priced between -125 and -175 at home. (They're 42-24 in that range the L3 seasons). In the only other prior series between these teams in 2018, the Rangers took two of three, totaling 17 runs in the two wins. 8* Texas

8* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): Both teams lost yesterday. The Pirates, whose offense is really scuffling of late, were shutout by the Cardinals. The Braves fell 5-4 to the Cubs in a make-up game. While I was tempted to use the run line here (Bucs need all the help they can get offensively), the price had me reconsider. This is a revenge spot for them after being swept at home earlier this month. While they had no answer for Atlanta's pitching in that series (scored only two runs in three games!), I think they'll perform much better at the plate this time around. Plus they have Jameson Taillon on the mound and he's someone the Braves did not have to deal with in the previous series. Look for the Pirates to "steal one" at SunTrust Park Friday night. 

Bookending the All-Star Break, the Pirates went on an 11-game win streak. Other than that, they've been decidedly subpar this season (15 games below .500). But they have won four of the past five times Taillon has starterd, including 9-1 over Milwaukee in his last outing. There, Taillon allowed just one run on five hits over six innings. It was his second straight start doing that. But the difference between Milwaukee and when he faced the Cubs on 8.19 is that he had no walks. Going back to July, Taillon has allowed 3 ER or less in nine consecutive starts. In his last 16 starts overall, his ERA is 2.95. He's also been strong on the road, going 6-2 w/ a 2.44 ERA his L9 times starting outside of PNC Park.

In the last series between these teams, it's not like Atlanta's offense performed all that well either. They scored just nine runs in three games and two of the wins were of the one-run variety. After yday's loss, they've now dropped six of seven here at home. Anibal Sanchez will get the start here and while he's pitched well at times, I wouldn't exactly call him reliable. The team has lost the last two times he has started, including as a big ML favorite at Miami his last time out. Like Taillon, he did not pitch in the last series between the teams. I thought last night was a pretty crushing loss for the Braves (I was on 'em) as they rallied back from an early 3-0 deficit to take the lead 4-3, only to give it back on a pinch-hit HR. The Pirates have the edge in starting pitching tonight, plus there's the revenge factor. That has me on them. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): This is a great spot to play the Phillies. They're at home and had Thursday off. The Cubs are in their third town in three days as last night saw them have to play a make-up game in Atlanta. They won (5-4), mind you, but might all the travel be about to catch up w/ them? I think so? The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games, but they've been beating up on bad teams, save for last night. Meanwhile, Philly desperately needs this game and series. They just dropped two of three here at home to Washington to start the week and now trail the Braves by three games in the NL East. They're also three back in the Wild Card chase. This is a good home team (42-24 record) and I see them taking advantage of the tough spot the Cubs find themselves in tonight.

It's been a tough stretch for the Phillies, who are 8-14 their L22 games and have not won any of their previous seven series. This downward trajectory couldn't come at a worse time and the fact of the matter is that they've only outscored the opposition by three runs over the course of the season. So they don't really profile as a playoff team, at least when measured against some of the other contenders. But, again, they are in a good situation going into Friday. They did win Wednesday and probably should have Tuesday (gave up 4 runs in the top of the ninth). They are 10-7 this season following an off-day. Perhaps more important is the fact they are 20-7 their L27 games vs. left-handed starters and tonight find themselves up against the struggling Jose Quintana. 

Quintana has only managed to last five innings each of his last three starts. His struggles go back even further though as he's posted a 5.30 ERA and 1.42 WHIP since the All-Star Break. He also has a 5.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three career starts vs. the Phillies. The Cubs have dropped five of Quintana's last seven road starts and the team is also 2-7 the L9 times it has faced an opponent w/ a home win percentage of .600 or higher. Nick Pivetta is the starter for Philadelphia and while he too has struggled of late (allowed 11 runs in L2 starts), he's pitched better than his record, at least at home where his WHIP is 1.184. The Cubs have played a lot of baseball the L2 days (also had to make up a suspended game Weds) and it catches up w/ them here. 10* Philadelphia

8* Over Red Sox/White Sox (8:05 ET): Boston will bring its league-leading offense (5.4 rpg) to the Windy City and should have little problem feasting on a White Sox pitching staff that is permitting 5.2 rpg, 27th in MLB. Surprisingly, the past six meetings between these teams (three this season, three last) have all stayed Under. But all of those games took place in Fenway Park. Guaranteed Rate Field has one of the highest Over percetages in all of baseball this year (tied for 5th) and should certainly see plenty of fireworks tonight considering the Red Sox totaled 22 runs in just the last two games. The White Sox just completed a series w/ the Yankees where all three games went Under, but again, that was on the road. The Over had been 10-3-1 in their 14 games prior to facing the Yanks. Take the Over here. 

Lucas Giolito has pitched surprisingly well his last three starts for Chicago. He's won all three and has a 3.32 ERA/1.053 WHIP. But I used the term "surprisingly" because, boy, has he NOT pitched well at home this season. His ERA and WHIP here are 8.18 and 1.715, so it's no shock that the Over is 8-4. It should be pointed out that each of Giolito's last three starts came on the road. His last home start saw him surrender seven runs in just five innings to a Yankees team whose offense is roughly on par w/ that of the Red Sox (but not quite as strong). With the exception of a start on 6.15 vs. sorry Kansas City, Giolito has struggled in virtually every home start this season. Another issue for him has been control. Though his walk rate is down significantly over the L5 starts, he's still issued 75 free passes this season, most in the entire American League. 

Boston should have no problem scoring in this one. They put up 14 runs last night in what was actually a come from behind win over Miami. But they've also been giving up an average of roughly 6.0 rpg over the last week. Rick Porcello starts tonight's game and he's struggled a bit lately, posting a 5.72 ERA since July 13th. In 24 career starts vs. the White Sox, his ERA is just 4.30. That includes a loss to them earlier this season when he allowed three runs in six innings. Boston very likely wins this game (they are 14-2 priced -175 or higher on the road while Chicago is 0-7 priced +175 or higher at home), but it will take a lot of scoring to do so. Forcing the White Sox to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth would be nice as sometimes it's those final three outs that prove to be the difference in a game staying Under or going Over. 8* Over Red Sox/White Sox

8* Tulane (8:00 ET): Willie Fritz is hoping to do at Tulane what Dave Clawson has already accomplished at Wake Forest. Fritz will be entering his third year coaching the Green Wave. He has yet to make a bowl game (were very close LY), but this will be his best team yet. Clawson went 3-9 SU in each of his first two-seasons in Winston-Salem, but then jumped to 7 and 8 wins each of the last two years, making a bowl both times. The Demon Deacons were a bit of an overachiever though last year as they went 4-4 in ACC play despite never being favored by more than one point in any game. As for Tulane, they took on nine bowl eligible teams and finished 5-7 SU. Their season came to an end when SMU stopped them at the goal line in a 41-38 loss in the regular season finale. 

Tulane is used to opening the season on a Thursday night. This will be the fifth time in the last six years that they have done so. Two years ago, in Fritz's very 1st game, they lost 7-3 at Wake Forest. So this is technically a revenge spot. Last year's opener was a lot easier as they routed FCS Grambling St 43-14. They played a lot of close games in 2017 w/ seven decided by 7 pts or less. Only three times did they lose by double digits and all took place on the road. One was at Oklahoma. So it's key for the Green Wave to get this game at home. Their largest loss at Yulman Stadium last year was six points. When Fritz came here three years ago, he installed the spread option, but didn't have the right personnel. Now he does and w/ nine starters back, including a senior QB (Jonathan Banks), this should be Tulane's best offense under HC Fritz. 

Wake Forest plays in the tough ACC Atlantic. After finishing in a three-way tie for third place in 2017, I envision a drop this year. With four-year starter John Wolford having graduated and his presumed replacement Kendall Hinton, Jr suspended, the Demon Deacons will enter the season opener w/ a true frosh (Sam Hartman) at QB. On the road, mind you. Defensively, stopping the run was not this team's forte in 2017 (allowed almost 190 YPG), so I expect them to struggle against the spread option. This will be just the third time under Clawson that Wake is a road favorite and they've gone 0-2 ATS previously. Take the points. 8* Tulane

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Braves will once again be welcoming in a red hot team here, albeit for just a game. Earlier in the week it was the Rays, who arrived at SunTrust Park on an eight-game win streak. Atlanta ended that streak w/ a 9-5 win Tuesday. Now the Cubs come to town for a makeup game. They too had a chance to enter Thursday on their own eight-game win streak, but lost yday to the Mets 10-3. Yesterday was a bit of a unique circumstance for Chicago as they first had to finish a game that was postponed Tuesday night. They won that one, 2-1 in 11 innings (game "started" in the 10th), before getting clobbered in the full game. So that nullifies any disadvantage the Braves may have been at from a long rain delay they had to sit through last night (lost 8-5 to the Rays). I took Atlanta back on Tuesday when they snapped the Rays' 8-game win streak and will do the same here as I like the pitching matchup - a lot - from their perspective.

The Braves will be sending out Mike Foltynewicz tonight. Even though the team has dropped two of his last three starts, Foltynewicz has a 0.86 ERA and 0.762 WHIP during that time. He's allowed just two runs in 21 innings and has 22 strikeouts. Admittedly, he was fortunate to face Miami in two of those three starts. But all season long, Foltynewicz has delivered. He has a 2.62 ERA and 1.083 WHIP here at home where the Braves have gone 35-28 overall. Earlier in the year, he held the Cubs to just one (unearned) run in five innings and had 10 strikeouts. Atlanta lost that game, 3-2, but I believe the final result will be a lot different this time around. 

The Cubs counter w/ Mike Montogomery, who is making his return to the rotation after being sidelined w/ shoulder inflammation. This will be his first time starting in over two weeks. While Montgomery has some pretty decent numbers and has gone at least five innings in all of his previous 13 starts, a 1.715 WHIP over his L3 outings sticks out "like a sore thumb" to me. He's actually been quite fortune not to have given up more runs in those starts as he actually allowed 19 hits in 10 1/3 IP against San Diego and St. Louis. He bounced back w/ six shutout innings in his last start, but note that was against an awful Royals team. The Braves have taken five of their last six series openers and Foltynewicz has a 5-1 TSR the L6 times he's worked on at least five days rest. 10* Atlanta

10* Minnesota (7:00 ET): What a horrific spot this is for New Mexico State. The team just played Saturday and looked terrible in a 29-7 (home) loss to Wyoming. Thus, I wish them luck having to visit a Power 5 school tonight. The Aggies were a really nice story in 2017 as they made (and won!) their first bowl game in 57 years (finished the season 7-6 SU). But now reality is about to set in. They were severely outclassed by a Wyoming team that had to replace a first round draft pick at QB (Josh Allen), getting outgained 449-135. The Aggies didn't even score until 1:16 left in the game and they had just seven first downs. This cross-country flight shapes up as a disastrous spot and I'm undaunted when it comes to laying the points. 

PJ Fleck came to Minnesota last year w/ a lot of hype as he'd just led Western Michigan to a New Year's Six Bowl Game. Obviously, life in the Big 10 is a lot tougher. The Gophers opened 2017 at 3-0, but lost seven of their final nine games. They should be improved this season. Note that in his second year at WMU, Fleck led his team to a seven-win improvement. That won't happen here, but the Gophers figure to at least be a factor in the Big 10 West. They'll get better QB play this year and are more experienced. Defensively, they should have little problem against an anemic NMSU attack that couldn't muster anything in the opener.

After factoring in sacks, NMSU had -9 yards rushing last week. RB Jason Huntley averaged just 2.4 yards per carry. That simply won't get it done against anybody. Now with the team likely to fall behind big here, look for the Aggies' offense to become pretty one-dimensional. Fleck understands the importance of starting the season strong and isn't likely to take his foot off the gas here. It helps that New Mexico State figures to be fatigued in the second half, playing its second game in five days after a cross-country trip. Defensively, NMSU figures to have its hands full stopping WR Tyler Johnson. I just don't see anyway the underdog keeps this one close after looking so bad in that first game. 10* Minnesota

10* Over Dodgers/Rangers (8:05 ET): The Dodgers figured to score plenty of runs in this quick two-game IL series. The Rangers' pitching staff is terrible and LA came in already averaging 5.2 rpg on the road. Not that they really need the additional help, but the Dodgers also get to use a DH here in Arlington w/ the games being played under American League rules. They'll of course take the advantage though. Sure enough, they scored eight runs in a pretty easy win here Tuesday night. Texas gives up more runs per game at home than any other team in baseball. They allow 6.0 rpg here for the season. That's over a half run per game more than Colorado allows at Coors Field. I see no reason why not to expect another high scoring affair Wednesday. Take the Over. 

The Rangers starter for tonight will be Mike Minor. He comes in with a 3-0 record his L3 starts and a 0.696 WHIP. Last time out, he threw six shutout innings of one-hit ball, beating Oakland. That performance came on the heels of him missing a scheduled start due to back stiffness. Back on 8.10, he did allow four runs in just 5 2/3 innings. While he'll be working on six days' rest here, that's nothing compared to the 18 days he had between his last two starts. He only threw 73 pitches vs. Oakland, likely due to lingering concerns over his back. I'm not convinced that Minor is 100% healthy going into tonight's game. Another thing is that he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters. The Texas bullpen is very bad and has a 5.38 ERA here at home. That figures to be a factor tonight. 

Los Angeles has its own bullpen issues right now. They gave up two runs in the bottom of the ninth last night, which ultimately did not matter. But it's definitely something worth keeping an eye on. Unless they're down, which would be somewhat of a surprise, they're going to have to pitch in the bottom of the ninth again tonight. That can often be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under (as we saw last night). Starter Alex Wood has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts and lasted just four innings his last time out. He gave up three runs. He too will be working on extended rest here as that last start was back on 8.20 vs. St. Louis. Rangers' home games are typically high scoring (they average 11.5 rpg) and this one will be no different. 10* Over Dodgers/Rangers 

6* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros delivered a "statement win" on Monday, beating the A's 11-4 in the opener of a critical three-game set. This will be the last series of the year between the two top teams in the AL West and I do believe the home team has been priced correctly. While they are only up 2.5 games in the standings, Houston is vastly superior when it comes to run differential (+222 vs. +85). The Astros' run differential is the best in all of baseball right now and while their 81-50 record is impressive in its own right, they've actually played to the level of a 91-win team! Oakland certainly looks like a team that's going to at least get the Wild Card, but they've slightly overachieved thanks to the best win percentage in one-run games (26-10) in all of MLB. 

Last night marked the Astros' sixth win in a row. They swept the Angels over the weekend as well. Not coincidentally, this six-game win streak began when Jose Altuve, Jr returned to the lineup. Right now, this club is as healthy as its been in a long time. Last night was the first time in nearly two months that they had George Springer, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Altuve all at the top of the batting order in the same game. I expect a strong finish to the regular season from this group. Led by Bregman, who homered and had 4 RBI's, the 'Stros scored 11 runs last night in a very impressive effort. As far as pitching goes, there's no real concern either as the Houston staff has allowed the fewest number of runs in all of baseball. 

Charlie Morton will start for the Astros Tuesday, looking to bounce back from a season-worst performance LW at Seattle. Although the team still won (10-7), Morton allowed six runs, which was just the fourth time all year he allowed more than four in a start. He owns a 13-3 record, including 8-2 at home. He has a 2.89 ERA in two starts vs. Oakland this year as well. Morton will be opposed here by Edwin Jackson, who has been a surprise in the A's rotation, posting solid numbers in 11 starts (8-3 TSR). Earlier this month, he did face Houston and was okay, though he did allow two home runs (did not factor into the decision). He went against Morton, who also didn't factor into the decision, despite also allowing just two runs in five innings. Houston is healthier this time around and primed to pull away in the AL West. 6* Houston

6* Run Line NY Mets (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Mets at +1.5. The Mets seemed well on their way to an upset last night as they handed starter Noah Syndergaard an early 3-1 lead. I had 'em +1.5, so I was feeling pretty good at that point. Even after Syndergaard gave back the lead and the Mets were down 4-3, things were okay because of the run line. But enter the bullpen, which let us down by giving up three more runs to cost us a winning ticket. As much as I liked the idea of Syndergaard +1.5, I really like the idea of Jacob deGrom +1.5, so I will go back to the well tonight hoping the Mets can exact some revenge on a Cubs team that swept them at Citi Field back in early June. Play the run line (+1.5). 

What a pitching matchup we have Tuesday w/ deGrom vs. Cole Hamels. It's a matchup I'd definitely stay away from as far as a traditional money line bet goes, but give me deGrom and an additional 1.5 runs to work with and I'm in. The fact is that deGrom doesn't give up many runs. Despite an 8-8 record (11-15 TSR), deGrom has the lowest ERA (1.71) in all of baseball. Only four of his 26 starts haven't been quality ones, meaning he almost always goes at least six innings while allowing three runs or less. He hasn't had a non-quality start since mid-May. So that's 18 straight quality starts the Mets have gotten from him. He's had nine or more strikeouts in all five August starts, including a CG shutout at Philadelphia 10 days ago. Last time out, he was a hard-luck loser as he gave up two runs (one unearned) in a 3-1 defeat to Madison Bumgarner and the Giants. 

Hamels was having a season similar to deGrom (in terms of wins and losses), but then was fortunate enough to be traded to the Cubs and has completely turned it around. He's gone 4-0 w/ a 0.79 ERA in five starts for his new team and has allowed 1 or 0 ER in all five. Two of those five wins came by one run, however. While the Cubs are obviously a much better team than the Mets, deGrom is the better of the two starting pitchers here. Is that enough to overcome the overall discrepancy between the two ballclubs? Maybe. But I certainly think with the added insurance that the RL provides, deGrom is more than "worth a shot" Tuesday night. It's not often we get to play a pitcher of this caliber this way. 6* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Tampa Bay has won eight in a row. Four of those wins came against lowly Kansas City. But the other four were against Boston, including a three-game sweep over the weekend, which should probably be recognized as the Rays' most impressive performance of the season. But the commonality of the eight straight wins is that all but one of them occurred at home. At Tropicana Field, this team is an outstanding 41-24. But they're just 29-37 on the road. They hit the road, starting Tuesday, for what will be a quick two-game set in Atlanta. The Braves are returning home after a successful 5-2 road trip that has them firmly in first place in the NL East. I believe that behind Julio Teheran, they're the team to put an end to this Rays' win streak.

Tonight's game sets up as a good old fashioned pitcher's duel. Neither team has been giving up many runs lately. Over it's eight-game win streak, Tampa Bay has allowed just 12 runs total, an average of 1.5 rpg. They just held Boston, the highest scoring team in the entire league, to five runs in three games. But, again, you have to consider the home vs. road splits here. TB is #1 in MLB, allowing just 3.2 rpg at home for the season. But on the road, they're allowing 4.6 rpg. Offensively, they figure to struggle in this series w/ the loss of the DH and tonight they have to face Teheran, who has posted a 1.80 ERA and 0.60 WHIP his L3 starts. Teheran has allowed just four runs and seven hits during the time, in 20 innings of work. Atlanta has been even stingier than TB of late as they allowed LESS than one run per game on their road trip, holding opponents to a .150 average! 

The Rays will turn to Ryne Stanek tonight. This will be his 45th appearance and 22nd "start." I have start in quotation marks because he's actually referred to as an "opener." When he does start the game, he's never asked to go more than two innings. When using him in this role, the Rays have gone just 9-12. In looking at this matchup, I have to come back to the Rays' road woes, plus the fact they're just 6-12 in Interleague Play this season. I believe the Braves will be able to get to Stanek and whomever else pitches here for the Rays. The Braves already took two down in Tampa Bay (back in May) w/ Teheran starting one of the games and throwing six shutout innnings. More of the same tonight. 10* Atlanta 

8* Run Line NY Mets (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Mets +1.5. Few will want to touch the Metropolitans here as they are coming off (yet another) humiliating loss, this one 15-0 to the Nationals. But note that was a 1-0 game after seven innings. What happened to the bullpen over the final two frames was a full on meltdown. What's truly odd is that said meltdown occurred after the Mets had held the Nats scoreless for 23 consecutive innings! That's right, they actually won the first two games of the series, both in shutout fashion. With Noah Syndergaard on the bump tonight, I absolutely feel they can win here. I'll say they do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Cubs comes into this series hot, having just swept the Reds over the weekend. They've won five in a row overall, including a shutout of their own Sunday (9-0). But interesting is that in the five games previous to this current win streak, the Cubs offense scored exactly just one run every time. Obviously, if the Mets are able to hold the Cubs to one run or fewer tonight, it's a guaranteed win. Syndergaard is more than capable of doing so, having allowed 3 ER or fewer in 15 of his 18 starts this season. As bad as the Mets are, it's rare to find Syndergaard priced quite like this. It will be just the third time all season that he's likely to close +125 or higher on the moneyline. After missing nearly two months w/ a finger injury, Syndergaard has won three of his past four starts. He has a 2.00 ERA in three career starts vs. Chicago. 

The Mets have revenge coming into this series as they were swept by the Cubs, at home, back in early June. Jon Lester, who starts tonight for the Cubs, shut them out in the finale of that four-game series while giving up just two hits over seven innings. While Lester comes into this meeting off B2B quality starts, it wasn't that long ago that he was really struggling. Over his L7 starts, he still sports an ERA of 7.08 and a WHIP of 1.747. Syndergaard gives the Mets a fighting chance any time he's on the hill and I'll gladly take him w/ an additional 1.5 runs in our "back pocket." 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

10* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Orioles +1.5. Well, here we go again. Baltimore burned me last week when they were swept up in Toronto. Perhaps I should have known better. The O's are most definitely a "bad" team as they headed into Sunday night's contest w/ the Yankees on a seven-game losing streak. Three of those losses were to the Blue Jays. Incredibly, they've now lost 10 straight games to the Jays, all in Toronto. They've been swept three straight times. They burned me in the sense that I thought it was damn near impossible to be swept by the same opponent three straight times, so I kept taking them (on the run line). Incredibly, the O's couldn't even come within one run of the Jays in any game in that last series! But here at home, they can and will. Call me insane, but I'll say Baltimore does no worse than a one-run loss here. 

David Hess pitched one of the three games last week for Baltimore against Toronto. He certainly did his job, going seven innings and allowing just one run on three hits. That one run was the product of a solo HR. Hess left the game having struck out seven and walked none. The score was 1-0 at the time of his departure. Incredibly, Baltimore ended up losing the game 6-0 (Toronto scored five times in the bottom of the eighth). How cruel is that? Hess has proven to me that he can silence the Blue Jays' bats. He's now allowed 3 ER or less in each of his L3 starts (2.89 ERA, 1.018 WHIP). Sadly, the Orioles have lost all three of those games. But the other two were both by one run.

Toronto will send out Sam Gaviglio Monday night. Like Hess, he pitched in last week's series. Gaviglio turned in one of his better efforts in some time, going seven innings and holding Baltimore to just two runs on six hits. But that was at home. On the road, he has an 8.36 ERA and 1.752 WHIP. Before picking up the win last week, Gaviglio's last victory came all the way back on May 25th! The team is just 2-7 in his nine road starts. Toronto is just 26-37 on the road this season, getting outscored by nearly a full run per game. After having their five-game win streak snapped Sunday (by Philadelphia), the Jays are primed to be upset. 10* Run Line Baltimore

10* Under Yankees/Orioles (8:05 ET): Oddsmakers are expecting the Yankees to make "quick work" of the Orioles tonight. Honestly, why wouldn't they? New York has easily taken the first three games of this four-game series, including sweeping a doubleheader yday w/ the two wins coming by scores of 10-3 and 5-1. Baltimore has now dropped seven straight as they continue to descend into an almost uncharted sea of futility. The O's are now 56 games below .500 and 52.5 games out of first place in the AL East. The money line is obviously too rich for my blood, so the total is the only way to play this Sunday night matchup on ESPN. Normally, I might consider a home team (even at +1.5) looking to avoid a four-gam sweep, but I just can't see Baltimore doing much against Yanks starter Luis Severino. So I'll go Under on this one, hoping Dylan Bundy can also keep the Yankee bats in relative check. 

Severino has a 20-6 team start record for the year, but lately he's not been the same pitcher he was prior to the All-Star Break. He's gone just 2-4 his L7 starts w/ a 7.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. But last time out, he was a big favorite (same as he is here) and looked dominant. He held Toronto to just two runs in five innings and finished w/ eight strikeouts. He's 4-1 all-time vs. the Orioles, posting a 3.33 ERA. This particular version of the Orioles lineup is probably the weakest he's ever faced as they are averaging just 2.1 rpg during the active losing streak while batting a collective .193. There's been just one game during that stretch where they topped three runs. 

Bundy has gone through his own rough patch lately, giving up 22 runs on 29 hits his L3 starts. He's also winless since 7.29. The home run ball has been a real issue for the righty as he's served up a total of 15 his last eight starts, six of those coming in the last three. That's a real concern considering the Yankees hit five HR's yday off Orioles' pitching. But Aaron Judge remains out of the Yankee lineup and I don't think Bundy can continue being that bad for an extended period of time. The Under is 36-24-4 here at Camden Yards this season. Yankees' scoring also drops to 4.8 rpg on the road. 10* Under Yankees/Orioles

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): Add the Cowboys to the list of teams who aren't taking the third week of the preseason very seriously. However, I think in their case, the move is quite understandable. It's not been a good week when it comes to the health of the offensive line. Center Travis Frederick (auto-immune disorder) and guard Zack Martin (knee) are both out and that means that HC Jason Garrett is very likely to sit starting QB Dak Prescott as well as RB Ezekiel Elliott for this one. All indication is that neither of those two stars will play. Considering that the run game is widely thought to be the strength of this Cowboys' team, I'm not sure what that leaves us with, except a team that's probably not going to be very competitive. Lay the points.

Steve Wilks is in his first year on the job as the head man at Arizona. Thus, I expect him and the Cardinals' coaching staff to take this game far more seriously than their counterparts are. Rookie QB Josh Rosen's availability might come down to a game-time decision due to his injured thumb, but Rosen was not going to start this game anyway. That "honor" goes to Sam Bradford, who by all accounts will be the Week 1 starter. We'll also see a lot of Mike Glennon, who has been a regular season starter at different points in his career. Wilks is off to a 2-0 start this preseason, covering both games as well. It was a 24-17 win over the Chargers in the first game (as three-point chalk), then a 20-15 "upset" of Arizona (as six-point dogs) last week. 

The Cowboys are 0-2 so far in the preseason. They did cover the first game, as 3.5-pt dogs, losing 24-21 to San Francisco. Then came last week's anemic looking 21-13 loss to Cincinnati. It's not just Frederick and Martin that will be missing along the offensive line here. Four of the team's five starting lineman are unlikely to play. So its pretty easy to understand why Jerry Jones ... errrr Jason Garrett would choose to sit Prescott and Elliott for fear of them getting injured. Keep in mind that the Cowboys may have the worst receiving corps in the entire NFL entering this season. So this offense, which will likely be led by Cooper Rush at QB, is going to be pretty brutal Saturday night. 10* Arizona

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): The Giants have pretty much fallen out of contention in the NL playoff chase, even for a Wild Card, but that didn't stop them from beating the Rangers yday by a score of 5-3. Technically, they are only eight games back of the WC, but at three games below .500 and needing to jump a ton of teams, it's simply not a realistic goal at this point. To further drive home the point, catcher Buster Posey opted for surgery and is done for 2018. I'm not sure it mattered, but the Giants will likely "rue" Friday's loss to the Rangers where they blew a six-run lead and lost in extra innings. To me, San Francisco is definitely the better team here and I think they'll win the series Sunday. 

Texas has never been in contention here in '18 and has been in last place in the AL West basically the entire way. It's been a struggle offensively recently, including B2B shutouts by Oakland in the last series. Theoretically, the Rangers lineup is even weaker here w/ the loss of the DH from the lineup. Giants starter Derek Holland should be able to take advantage as the veteran has allowed just one run total in his last two starts and has a 2.81 ERA his last three. Giants' starting pitching has not been an issue at all in this series w/ Andrew Suarez tossing seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball yday and Dereck Rodriguez allowed just two runs on three hits (over six innings) on Friday. I anticipate Holland performing just as well this afternoon. 

Texas will send Yovani Gallardo to the mound Sunday. His 9-2 team start record is a total mirage as he's been fortunate to benefit from MLB's highest run support average. But after scoring 11 or more runs five times in his first nine starts, the Rangers offense has scored just four times each of the last two. Gallardo's ERA in those 11 starts is 5.10 and goes even higher on the road. This will be his first time starting on the road in August and just his second road start since the All-Star Break. The Giants have performed quite well in day games this season, going 26-18 and should take full advantage of a team that has allowed the third most runs in all of MLB this season. 8* San Francisco

8* Houston (9:05 ET): Following the All-Star Break, the Astros put forth their worst stretch of baseball of the season. At one point, they'd dropped 14 of 22 games, even getting swept twice (both at home). Heading into Tuesday, they'd dropped 8 of 10, which has allowed the AL West race to be a lot tighter than it ought to be. Health was starting to be a concern, but several of the team's stars are now back in the everyday lineup and things are starting to turn around. Last night was their third consecutive victory as they came to LA and beatdown the overmatched Angels, 9-3. Truthfully, there was nothing to ever really worry about w/ the Astros. Remember that this is a team that has outscored its opponents by more than 200 runs this season. They are MLB's best road team (45-21) and although they're 28 games above .500 (78-50), they actually have the win expectancy of an 88-win team! 

Looking at Saturday's matchup, there's REALLY little to worry about. That's because the 'Stros will be sending Justin Verlander out to the mound. Verlander is having an incredible season by an objective measure w/ the exception of wins (only 12), which is an overrated measure of pitcher performance anyway. Verlander hasn't had the best August, and actually gave up four runs in his last start (though the team still managed to win comfortably). However, he still ranks in the top five in innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP among all American League starters. This is a great spot for him as he has absolutely dominated the Angels going back to last season when he came to Houston. In his last five starts vs. Los Angeles, Verlander is a perfect 5-0, having allowed just 2 ER in 36 IP. He comes into tonight on a 23-inning scoreless streak here in Anaheim. 

The pitcher who will look to match up for the Angels here is Jaime Barria, who has actually had a better August than Verlander, but he's also been far more inconsistent. Before going 3-0 w/ a 2.36 ERA his L5 starts, Barria had gone 0-6 over a seven-start stretch. The team did lose his most recent outing, at Texas on Sunday. He's faced Houston once this season, back in May, and the Angels lost that one too. Remember that Houston is a very potent offensive team on the road, averaging an impressive 5.5 runs per game. Their run differential away from home is easily baseball's best. They're 16-3 this season as a road favorite of -175 or higher on the money line. The Angels have not been good against teams w/ winning records this season, going just 19-38 in such contests. 8* Houston

10* Hawaii (7:30 ET): Neither of these teams were very profitable at the betting window last season. For Colorado State, that was something new. The Rams had gone 9-4 ATS in 2016, but dropped down to 4-9 ATS in '17, despite posting the same 7-6 straight up record as the year before. HC Mike Bobo enters his fourth season at Fort Collins and has gone 7-6 SU every season. Every season has ended w/ a bowl loss. Over in the MWC's West Division, Hawaii hasn't been profitable - or particularly good on the field - for some time now. Last year, they went 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS. The Warriors are now just 11-26-2 at the betting window the L3 seasons w/ the last two coming w/ Nick Rolovich at the helm. As a result, they're a big underdog for this conference opener. 

Hawaii enters 2018 as one of the least experienced teams in the entire country and has just nine returning starters. They ended last season by losing five straight as well as 9 of their last 10 games. So there isn't a ton of optimism out on the island surrounding this team. However, I do expect an improvement in wins despite a decent amt of talent having transferred out. They will run the run and shoot on offense and a big key here is that WR John Ursua will be back on the field. Ursua was lost to injury in the middle of the season last year. At the time, he had been averaging 131.8 yards and 9.3 catches per game. So he's a big-time weapon for an offense that averaged only 22.8 PPG a year ago. The overall team's decline coincided w/ Ursua's injury, which should not be a surprise.

Since becoming an official member of the Mt West Conference, Hawaii hasn't had much luck against CSU. They've lost all four meetings as conference rivals, including 51-21 LY as 6-pt home dogs. In fact, they're just 1-10 SU the L11 meetings w/ CSU, predating their time in the MWC. Incredibly, Hawaii has won just one time in the Mt Time Zone since 2012! However, the big key here is that the Rams also enter 2018 just as inexperienced as Hawaii. The have the same number of returning starters (9) and will need to find a way to replace a four-year starter at QB (Nick Stevens). Another key is that Bobo has been away from the team due to health concerns (numbness in feet). As the offense's primary playcaller, that's a tough situation. He was hospitalized less than two weeks ago and it was only recently determined (as in Wednesday) that he could be on the sidelines Saturday! The QB situation is also dicey w/ Collin Hill not yet cleared to return. On the defensive side of the ball, there's been massive turnover within the coaching staff. In my opinion, this is way too many points for an inexperienced team to lay in its first game, especially w/ so many major question marks at key spots. 10* Hawaii 

10* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): It took 15 innings, but finally the Brewers were able to exact some revenge last night on the Pirates for a five-game sweep that took place last month. The way the game started out, it appeared as if the Brew Crew would be coasting to a series-opening victory. They scored four times in the bottom of the first before the Bucs slowly chipped away, eventually tying things up in the top of the ninth. Incredibly, Milwaukee went 13 consecutive frames w/o scoring a run after that four-run 1st. Things looked dire when Pittsburgh put two on the board in the top of the 15th. But Milwaukee answered w/ three of its own to get the win in walkoff fashion. The way that game went down, Pittsburgh has to be demoralized. Meanwhile, the Brewers are still in the playoff hunt and looking to exact some revenge on their division rival. Look for them to jump all over the Pirates tonight.

"He did a good job standing there." That's a quote from Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell regarding his decision to allow reliever Jordan Lyles to come up to bat in the bottom of the 15th last night. Lyles was able to draw a two-out walk, thus loading the bases and setting the stage for the dramatic rally. Both bullpens are obviously exhausted coming into Saturday, so the two starters will be leaned on heavily. I'm more than comfortable "hitching my wagon" to Brew Crew starter Jhoulys Chacin, who will be making his team-leading 28th start here. Chacin has been on fire of late, winning each of his last three starts while posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.842 WHIP. Opponents are batting just .191 against him during that time. This will be the fourth time Chacin has started against Pittsburgh this season. Curiously, he's winless despite a 1.53 ERA. 

The Pirates will counter Chacin w/ Jameson Taillon, who has pitched well himself of late. Just not as well as Chacin has. Though he comes in riding a streak of five straight quality starts, Taillon was quite fortunate in one of them as he gave up two runs on 10 hits, a complete game effort in Colorado. Chacin is working on a 13-inning scoreless streak. Save for that rather random 11-game win streak they went on surrounding the All-Star Break, Pittsburgh has been very sub-par this season, going just 52-66 otherwise. They've now dropped four in a row after being swept at home by Atlanta to start the week. Milwaukee is a strong team here at Miller Park, sporting a 16-4 record when priced between -125 and -175 on the money line. Offensively, the Bucs have been beyond anemic recently. The six runs they scored last night (again, in 15 innings) nearly equaled the number they'd scored (7) in their previous seven games combined. So that's just 13 total runs scored in their last 80 innings! 10* Milwaukee

10* Houston (4:00 ET): Several teams appear to be approaching this preseason with little sense of urgency or effort. Count the Rams among that list. This is clearly a team w/ its eye on the regular season (and beyond). They had quite the busy offseason, adding to an already stacked roster, which makes them the overwhelming favorite to take the NFC West. But presently, there are issues, namely the Aaron Donald holdout. Then you have RB Todd Gurley publicly boasting that sitting out the preseason is every player's "dream." (Hey, can't blame him). Gurley hasn't played at all in the preseason, nor will he here. Now the same may hold true for QB Jared Goff due to the Rams' banged up offensive line. All things considered, I'll gladly lay the points w/ the Texans in this one.

Houston figures to be one of the more improved teams in the league this year. They'll have QB DeShaun Watson and DE JJ Watt back after both missed a large portion of last season due to injuries. They have opened the preseason w/ a pair of wins, beating Kansas City 17-10 and San Francisco 16-13. Keep in mind that the Texans' offense averaged an amazing 34.7 PPG in Watson's six starts last year. With Watson and the first-teamers expected to get extended time on Saturday afternoon, it should be easy pickings against the "skeleton crew" Los Angeles is trotting out there. Watson completed 5 of his 8 pass attempts last week vs. the 49ers, for 77 yards. This week, he'll be able to throw to both Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins, neither of whom have yet to suit up this preseason. 

The Rams' defense, sans Donald, may be at near full strength here with starters ready to play. But it's the offensive side of the ball that you have to worry about. Gurley definitely isn't playing and it's become pretty apparent that Goff will be joining him on the sidelines. Then you have the offensive line, which is down three starters. That's both tackles and the center. So you can see why HC McVay isn't eager to put Goff and/or Gurley on the field. The Rams two options at QB are Sean Mannion and Brandon Allen, neither of whom are a particularly attractive option. Mannion was BRUTAL in the team's preseason opener, completing just 3 of 23 pass attempts. The Rams lost that game 33-7 to the Ravens. They did actually win last week, beating the Raiders 19-15, but that was an odd circumstance w/ neither side showing ANYTHING due to the fact the teams will be playing each other again in Week 1 of the regular season. The Texans are 6-3-1 ATS their L10 preseason games and it's clear to me that they're the ones taking this third week of the preseason more seriously. 10* Houston

8* Oakland (10:30 ET): If you're wondering how a spread could be this high in the preseason, particularly when it's Green Bay getting the points, be aware that Mike McCarthy is opting to rest the majority of his key veterans Friday night. That includes Aaron Rodgers. Reportedly, several starters aren't even making the trip out to the West Coast. So that should pave the way for the Raiders to garner an easy win and cover in this third preseason game. Lay the points. 

The Packers have admittedly looked impressive in their first two preseason games and that's w/ Rodgers attempting only four passes. I had them last week in a 51-point effort against the Steelers where they could not be stopped, no matter who was at quarterback. It was their second straight 17-point victory, though they were actually outgained in the contest. (GB had two defensive touchdowns, one right off the bat, which definitely helped). The Packers' defense was certainly less than stellar against Pittsburgh. Both of Rodgers' backups - Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer - have fared well this preseason, but now let's see how they perform against a team's starters. 

Despite Khalil Mack holding out, the Raiders' defense has played well in its two preseason games, allowing just 29 pts. Problem is that they've scored only 31. But w/ Derek Carr and the first team offense getting extended playing time this week, I expect the Raiders' highest scoring effort to date. With regards to LW's loss to the Rams, keep in mind Jon Gruden used a very "vanilla" gameplan as Oakland opens the regular season up against the Rams. It was a game that the coaching staff seemingly had very little interest in. Much like Green Bay here. It's obvious to me that the Packers are NOT taking the third game of the preseason as seriously as most teams, so that makes them an easy fade. 8* Oakland 

10* Detroit (8:00 ET): The Lions are reportedly taking this game very seriously. That shouldn't be all that surprising seeing as the third game of the preseason is the one teams are supposed to take the most seriously. But in the case of the Lions, they have every reason to treat this as if it was a regular season affair. They're 0-2 SU in the preseason, including a 30-17 loss LW to the Giants in new HC Matt Patricia's home debut. Reportedly, the team and coaching staff was quite disgusted with that performance and really looking for across the board improvement. The opponent, Tampa Bay, is a team that would just as soon NOT play this game. They've had a terrible week with injuries and thus the "dress rehearsal" game is not something they're probably looking forward to. Take the points. 

The good news for the Bucs is that they've opened the preseason by going 2-0. QB Jameis Winston has looked good, but the problem there is he won't be available for the first three regular season games (suspended). So, with an eye on the regular season, you have to think this game will be less about Winston and more about getting his replacement ready for Week 1. That should mean a lot more of Ryan Fitzpatrick in this game. Then there is the issue of injuries. LT Donovan Smith went down w/ a knee injury Tuesday and will be out 2-4 weeks. The team was already thin along the O-line and now has to sign guys off the street. There are also multiple injuries in the secondary, safety Justin Evans being the latest. 

With the injuries along the Bucs' offensive line, there might be hope yet for a Lions' pass rush that has been basically non-existent so far in the preseason. With QB Matt Stafford set to see extended time here, the Bucs' secondary can also be exploited. The Lions threw the ball a lot LW vs. the Giants, but it would also be nice to see them getting the run game going. The first half wasn't the issue last week for the Lions, it was the second where things got out of hand. Backups are less of an issue in the third preseason game. Handicapping the preseason sometimes just comes down to the simple question of motivation. The Lions should have it, so take the points. 10* Detroit 

10* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): These two teams played a rare five-game series last month. Even rarer though was the Pirates taking all five games! That sweep came in the midst of the Bucs' best stretch of the season, an 11-game win streak that bookended the All-Star Break. Since that streak ended, however, the team's record is just 10-16 and they are essentially eliminated from playoff contention. Getting swept at home (by Atlanta) to start the week certainly didn't help. Meanwhile, Milwaukee still has a more realistic path to the postseason. They are right in the thick of the races for the Wild Card and NL Central, but must take advantage of these slumping Pirates, who can't seem to score any runs of late. Both teams were off yday, but the Brew Crew are at home where they're far more dangerous. They also have revenge and I'll take 'em. 

The Pirates arrive at Miller Park having scored a total of just seven runs their last seven games. They've been shutout three times during that stretch and scored just one run two other times. The collective batting average of the team over the last week is a paltry .204. That should make things easy on Milwaukee starter Wade Miley, who has allowed 3 ER or less in seven consecutive starts while going at least five innings every time out. Miley now has a 2.12 ERA for the season (nine starts total). The Brewers enter this series having won three of their last four games and they shut out Cincinnati the last time out. This season has seen them go 7-3 when off a shutout victory plus they're also an impressive 15-4 at home when priced between -125 and -175 on the ML. 

The Pirates can't seem to score any runs, so they'll heavily lean on starter Joe Musgrove here. Musgrove has pitched well for them, including a win over the Cubs his last start, but overall the team is just 6-8 w/ him on the hill this season. He started one of the games in the five-game sweep of Milwaukee last month, but didn't pitch well as he gave up five runs. He's been better since, but has been victimized by poor run support with the team being shutout in two of his last four outings. Those two shutouts aren't even factored into the Pirates' recent dismal stretch at the plate that I mentioned earlier! I'll call for their offensive woes to continue tonight and for the Brewers to gain a measure of revenge. 10* Milwaukee

8* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Marlins +1.5. Well, playing this matchup this way certainly didn't work out last night (Marlins lost 5-0), but with the revenge angle still in play, I'll try again. Miami was swept up in Atlanta last month and has now dropped seven in a row to the Braves overall (just 3-13 vs. them for the season). The Marlins have been more competitive here at home though and I think they're more than capable of winning Friday night. Just to be safe, I'll take the added insurances that the RL provides and call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss. 

Elieser Hernandez started for the Marlins last night, but could not make it past the third inning as he allowed multiple home runs. That was all the Braves needed w/ Sean Newcomb allowing just two hits in six shutout innings. I have to admit that tonight's pitching matchup looks a lot more scary on paper, at least from Miami's perspective. Mike Foltynewicz comes in flashing strong form w/ a 0.87 ERA and 0.968 WHIP his L3 starts. He's also 2-0 w/ a 0.69 ERA vs. the Marlins this season. But can he possibly maintain those numbers? I don't think so. Remember that he went just 2-3 in July w/ a 5.72 ERA. Something else to consider is that this could be just the second time all season that Atlanta closes north of -175 on the moneyline when playing on the road. That has opened up quite the tempting price on their opponent here, even on the run line. 

Dan Straily was originally slated to start for Miami yesterday, but was pushed back a day in favor of Hernandez. Now it's up to him to save his manager's decision. Straily has two of his team's three wins against the Braves this season, so that's a good thing. He's working on a full seven days' rest here. The Marlins are actually 9-4 in his L13 home starts. Eventually, Ronald Acuna, Jr has to stop killing Miami, allowing them to pick up a victory in this division rivalry. How about tonight? 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

8* Cleveland (8:00 ET): As far as the NFL spectrum goes, you can't get any further apart than these two teams. The Eagles won the Super Bowl last season. The Browns went 0-16. Yet, here we are in the preseason and Cleveland is favored. For what it's worth, the Browns did go 4-0 SU/ATS last year in the preseason. They are 1-1 SU/ATS this year. Philly has dropped both of its preseason games thus far, including a Super Bowl rematch w/ the Patriots last week. I took New England in that one, noting the likelihood that the Patriots would be the more motivated side (revenge!). I was clearly right as the Pats quickly raced out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back. They led by as much as 34-7 in the 2nd half en route to a 37-20 win and cover. 

This being the third week of the preseason, starters will see the most action of any of the four games. That means QB Nick Foles (hero of LY's Super Bowl) will play about a half for Philly. That would seem to give the visitors a significant advantage. But Foles injured his throwing shoulder last week, taking a hit, and did not return. Expect the Eagles' coaching staff to be extra cautious w/ Foles given the uncertain status of Carson Wentz, who will NOT play here and may or may not be ready for the start of the regular season. It's not like Foles was particularly effective when he was in there last week. He completed just 3 of 9 passes for 44 yards in his 2018 debut. Also, Foles will be missing a ton of key receivers and wideouts. Four running backs (Ajayi, Clement, Pumphrey and Sproles) are all out as are the top three WRs (Jeffrey, Agholor, Wheaton). 

The Browns are reportedly drawing some serious action from the betting public for the upcoming season, both in terms of exceeding their projected number of wins as winning the AFC North and Super Bowl. Hey, everybody loves a longshot. Maybe its being on Hard Knocks that's responsible for that. Obviously, this team is not going to win its division, let alone the Super Bowl, but they should be vastly improved. This is still preseason and I expect them to be the more motivated side Thursday night, especially playing at home. They're certainly more healthy compared to the Eagles. At QB, Tyrod Taylor (presumed Wk 1 starter) will play the bulk of the first half. But after he exits, expect #1 overall DC Baker Mayfield to come in and make plays. 8* Cleveland 

10* Hamilton (7:30 ET): This is a spot that the Ti-Cats simply must take advantage of. They're coming off a bye and hosting an Edmonton squad that is on a short week (just four days between games). Perhaps its that quick turnaround for the Eskimos that is responsible for the line shift. But also be aware that despite their 3-5 SU record, Hamilton has actually outscored its opponents in 2018. This is a squad that has been favored in every game but one so far, that one being its last game where they lost by six at Winnipeg. While they've fallen short of expectations so far, I have the Ti-Cats bouncing back in a major way Thursday night. Lay the points.

Edmonton had no problem beating Montreal last Saturday, but who isn't blowing out the Als these days? The Eskimos actually failed to cover the spread in the 40-24 victory as they were lofty 19.5-pt favorites at home. They did rack up 536 yds of total offense, but again, take any stats w/ a "grain of salt" when they come at Montreal's expense. These teams met back in Week 2 w/ Hamilton prevailing 38-21 as 6.5-point road underdogs. There was nothing "phony" about that win either as the Ti-Cats came in and rolled up 528 yards of offense. Hamilton has suffered three losses by six points or less so far, so really this is a team that's played better than its record shows.

As stated above, they are off a loss here, 29-23 to Winnipeg. But that was a road game. It was also two weeks ago. The schedule sure sets up nicely for a big Ti-Cats win tonight as their opponent is facing a tough spot w/ limited time to rest and practice in between games. Meanwhile, you have to figure Hamilton has had this game circled ever since losing to the Blue Bombers. They've actually dropped four of five, including two home games, so the level of motivation should be very high Thursday night. Since 2011, the Ti-Cats have 35 wins at home vs. just 24 on the road. They'll also be honoring CFL Hall of Famer Joe Montford at halftime, so emotions should be REALLY high here. The Ti-Cats are also 7-2 ATS following a SU loss. 10* Hamilton

PLAY STILL VALID AFTER MIAMI PITCHING CHANGE!

8* Run Line Miami (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Marlins at +1.5. Miami has revenge coming into this series as they were swept by Atlanta earlier this month. The Fish have really had their problems w/ the Braves in 2018, losing 12 of the 15 overall meetings including six straight. But here they are getting them at home and will face one of Atlanta's weaker starters. Just last night, the Marlins stunned the Yankees, winning 9-3. It was their third win in the last four games and the one loss came by one run. Atlanta looked good in its last series, sweeping the Pirates while allowing just two runs. But I don't see Miami doing any worse than a one-run loss in tonight's series opener. Play the RL. 

Sean Newcomb will be the Braves' starter in question tonight. As referenced above, he hasn't really pitched all that well lately. He comes in w/ a 7.63 ERA and 2.153 WHIP his L3 starts after getting hammered by Colorado last week. He lasted only 5 1/3 innings while giving up seven runs on nine hits. That was after allowing five runs on 12 hits (lasted just four innings) his previous start. Believe it or not, but the Braves had won four straight Newcomb starts before losing that last one. But prior to those four straight wins, they'd lost each of his previous five outings. Overall, things have been trending downward for Newcomb, who had a 5.06 ERA in July and is at 7.63 here in August. The Braves are also w/o their closer Aroyds Vizcaino right now due to shoulder inflammation.

Miami will now send a rookie to the mound here in Elieser Hernandez. Originally, it was set to be Dan Straily. The change is probably for the best as Straily had really been struggling of late. Something to note here is that Miami is a far more competitive ballclub at home than on the road. Most of their losses to the Braves this year have been in Atlanta. Hernandez is making just his sixth start of the year here and first in nearly two months. He didn't pitch all that bad previously, allowing 2 ER or less in four of those first five starts. He's also worked as a reliever and has made four appearances against the Braves, posting a 1.13 ERA in eight innings. His work at home has generally been much better than on the road. In August, Hernandez has made six relief appearances and has a 2.00 ERA. Atlanta is 18-8 in one-run games this year, but playing the game on the RL nullifies that good fortune. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

6* Boston (1:05 ET): After dropping the first two games of the series, the Red Sox gained a measure of revenge last night by beating the Indians 10-4. Early on, it appeared as if Boston might be in some trouble as they were down 2-0 after the top of the first. But the offense finally woke up w/ 10 runs and 25 total bases in what ended up being a pretty easy victory. These are the two highest scoring teams in all of baseball at home, but w/ the game at Fenway Park, that's a clear advantage for Boston. The Sox average 5.6 rpg here at home. They are also an astounding 28-6 in day games this season, which is easily the best such mark in all of baseball. With David Price on the hill this afternoon, they have a clear edge in starting pitching as well. 

Price has a 7-0 TSR his L7 starts to go along w/ a 2.42 ERA and 1.030 WHIP. He's gone at least six innings while allowing three runs or fewer in each of the last six starts. Since the All-Star Break, his ERA has dipped down to 1.35. This will be the third straight game he's closed as a significant favorite, so the market definitely respects him. Last time out, Price went seven innings and allowed just two runs in a relatively easy 5-2 win over Tampa Bay. Furthermore, Price has pitched quite well in his career against Cleveland, going 10-2 lifetime w/ a 2.24 ERA. Let's also not forget Boston's overall record. This is a team that's won almost 70% of its games (89-39 overall). 

Cleveland is coasting to another AL Central title, but they simply had no competition from the rest of the division. It's very interesting to note that while the Tribe is 37-17 against the rest of the Central, they're only .500 against everyone else. It was very impressive how they were able to come in here and take the first two games of the series. But they had Corey Kluber on the mound Monday and then rookie Shane Bieber took a shutout into the seventh inning Tuesday. It will be another rookie, Adam Plutko, on the hill this afternoon. Plutko comes in w/ a 4.62 ERA in 10 games, seven of those starts. This will be just his second start since the end of June. Last week, he pitched just fine, but the team still lost ... to Baltimore. Might this stage be a little "big" for Plutko? I think so. 6* Boston

6* Arizona (9:40 ET): I had the D'backs yday as they prevailed 5-4. While a popular pick on the board, the win did not come easy for Arizona. In fact, they won on a throwing error in the bottom of the ninth. This after they twice blew a two-run lead. Once again, we find Arizona as a pretty "popular" bet for Wednesday. Again, I'm on them. I think it's going to be very difficult for a short-handed Angels club (no Mike Trout) to "get over" the way last night's game ended. It also doesn't help that they have to face Clay Buchholz here. Look for the home team to sweep this short series.

Buchholz has pitched shockingly well for an Arizona rotation that has largely carried the team this year. No National League team has allowed a fewer number of runs this season than the D'backs. Buchholz has been instrumental in that. He has a 2.10 ERA and 1.068 WHIP after 12 starts and has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any outing all year. His last start was his best yet. He went the distance in San Diego, allowing just one run on five hits. He had 6 K's and 0 walks. It was his seventh time allowing one run or fewer this season! Not only does Buchholz not have to face Trout tonight, but as pointed out in yday's analysis, the Angels are also w/o the DH in this series. That significantly weakens a pretty middle of the road American League lineup. 

The pitching edge here - clearly - is in Arizona's favor. Buchholz is having a great year and all the Angels have to counter is Omar Despaigne. Last week, Despaigne made just his second start of 2018 (1st since 3.31) and gave up five runs in a 7-4 loss to the Rangers. That was his Angels' debut after having his contracted purchased from Miami not long before. Despaigne previously pitched for San Diego, so he's familiar w/ Chase Field, but it's a history he's probably rather forget. In three starts here, he's 0-3 w/ an 8.04 ERA. Despaigne spent a lot of time in the minors this year and didn't pitch particularly well down there either (4.47 ERA). The Angels are simply playing out the string at this point as they're out of playoff contention. Meanwhile, Arizona is in a fierce race in the NL West, meaning they need every win they can get. 6* Arizona

8* Houston (4:10 ET): Despite a late Seattle pitching change, the Astros were finally able to overcome the Mariners last night, winning 3-2. That victory snapped a five-game losing streak to the M's while at the same time also allowing Houston to stay tied (w/ Oakland) for first place in a very competitive AL West. But let's talk about the AL West, shall we? It's a clear three horse race at this point w/ these two and the A's. But the reality is that the race SHOULD be a whole lot less competitive than it is. Look at the respective run differentials. Houston has outscored its opponents by 198 runs this season. Oakland is +82, which is good, but nowhere near the level of the Astros. Then you have Seattle, who has been OUTSCORED by 40 runs in 2018.

I've been saying it all summer, but the Mariners' 72-55 record is quite fraudulent. It has been built on the back of an extremely fortunate 31-17 mark in one-run games (also 12-1 in extra innings!). Oakland actually has a higher win percentage in one-run games (26-10) than Seattle, but their run differential clearly suggests that they're playoff worthy. The Mariners are not. Perhaps it was apropos then for the Astros to prevail by one run Tuesday night. However, there's still more work to be done from the Astros' perspective (at least in my opinion) and that means beating Seattle again this afternoon. Note Houston is 26-15 in day games this season. They're also arguably the top road team in all of baseball (outscoring opp by 2.4 rpg). Seattle, while 38-27 at Safeco Field, averages only 3.6 rpg here and has been outscored significantly. 

The Astros send Charlie Morton to the hill on Wednesday. He's gone 12-3 in 24 starts while posting solid numbers. His last two starts, which have come against Oakland and Seattle, both resulted in the dreaded one-run loss for Houston. It's time for a little payback. Morton pitched well in each game (allowed just five runs total in 11 IP) and has been solid overall since the All-Star Break (allowed 3 ER or less in all five starts). He's already won twice here at Safeco Field this season, allowing just two runs in 13 IP. Seattle will turn to Marco Gonzales, who has struggled of late w/ a 7.94 ERA and 1.765 WHIP his L3 starts. He's lost all three. Oh, by the way. Jose Altuve is now back for the Astros as well. It's time for them to assert their superiority against their division mates. 8* Houston

8* Run Line Baltimore (12:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are taking the Orioles +1.5. Well, it's come down to this. Either the Orioles win today, or they get swept for a third straight time by the Blue Jays. They're 1-11 overall vs. Toronto this season and were swept here back in June and July. Getting swept by the same opponent two straight times is exceedingly rare. I can't remember the last time I saw it happen three times in a row. Recognizing that the O's aren't a good time, I'll again use the run line here to aid in the cause.

Baltimore scored first on Monday, but still lost 5-3. Yesterday's game was close early, but then the Toronto bats exploded for four home runs, three of them coming in one inning. It was an 8-2 game by the end of the fifth and that ended up being the final score. Again, I fully understand that the Orioles aren't having a good season. But neither really is Toronto. This is the first time the Blue Jays will have won a home series since sweeping Baltimore last month. On paper, today seems like the O's best shot at victory. They'll face Thomas Pannone, who is making his first ever big league start. It's not like Pannone excelled in the starter's role down at Triple-A Buffalo either. He posted a 4.91 ERA in six starts. He appeared in nine games total "down on the farm," and didn't win any of them (5.36 ERA). At one point, Pannone had to serve an 80-game suspension for violating MLB's policy against performance-enhancing substances. 

He'll be opposed by David Hess, who made his own big-league debut back in May. He won two of his first three starts, but is 0-6 w/ a 6.61 ERA in 11 starts since. However, in one start against Toronto, Hess did pitch well. He gave up just one run (and five hits) in six innings of work. Despite their 10-0 home record against Baltimore this season, the Jays still have a losing home record overall and have been outscored here. Despite what's happened so far in the series, I think taking the run line remains the best option here. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5) 

6* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D'backs are big favorites here and for good reason. They're at home and have Patrick Corbin on the mound. Meanwhile, the Angels continue to soldier on w/o the services of Mike Trout, who is taking time off due to the passing of his brother in law. The Halos have managed to win 8 of 13 w/o Trout so far, but were also fortunate enough to face San Diego last week and swept them. Over the weekend, they dropped three of four to the last place Rangers. Arizona enters this short two-game Interleague set w/ a one-half game lead in the NL West. They too took advantage of the Padres, taking three of four in San Diego over the weekend. When playing after an off-day, the D'backs have gone 11-4 this season. They're the right call Tuesday.

Corbin has been one of the top pitchers in the National League this season as he is among the league leaders in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. He ranks in the top 10 in all of the categories just mentioned. Not surprisingly, that's translated into a lot of success recently w/ him winning four straight decision and taking only one loss in his L10 starts. Over his L5 starts, all of which Arizona has won, Corbin has posted a ridiculous 41-3 KW ratio. Another key to his success has been immunity to the home run ball. He hasn't allowed a single HR over his L10 starts. He's allowed just 11 all season in 155 1/3 innings of work. Last time out, Corbin allowed just one baserunner through the first three innings as he turned in a third consecutive quality outing. 

Corbin will be opposed here by Felix Pena. Save for one hideous showing vs. Seattle on 7.29, Pena has generally pitched pretty well this season. He allowed just one run (unearned) on two hits his last time out (vs. San Diego), but did have four walks. Something to consider here is that this series is being contested under NL rules. That means no DH for LA, further hampering an already Trout-less lineup. They are only 2-6 this season when priced between +125 and +175 on the road. Facing .500 or better opponents has given the Angels trouble all season. Their record vs. such teams is just 19-35, which helps explain why they're nothing more than a .500 team w/ little hope of making the postseason. 6* Arizona

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Orioles at +1.5. Last night saw them fall (again) to the Blue Jays and they're now 1-10 against their AL East rival in '18. It's been a miserable season overall in Baltimore where the team is now 51 games under .500, the worst record in all of baseball. Despite the lack of success against Toronto this season, or the general lack of success overall, I do believe the O's will show up and compete Tuesday. Expect them to do no worse than a one-run loss here.

It's not like Toronto is a fearsome ballclub. They came into this series having just been swept by the Yankees over the weekend. Obviously, this particular division opponent sets up a lot nicer for them. That said, the team is still being outscored at home this year. Take away Baltimore and they're actually just 22-32 at Rogers Centre. Last night was a close game early (Orioles scored first), but the key was a four-run Toronto fifth, which broke the game open. Baltimore did end up outhitting Toronto ever so slightly, 8-7, but went 1 for 7 w/ RISP and left eight men on base. The O's are seeking to avoid what would be a third straight sweep at the hands of Toronto here. Getting swept twice in a row by the same opponent is fairly rare; three times is almost unheard of. I truly believe that Baltimore is going to win a game in this series. 

Tonight's pitching matchup features two struggling starters, opening up the possibility of Baltimore's offense being able to lead the way. They'll face Sam Gaviglio, who has just one victory all season (in 17 starts!) and it came all the way back on May 25th. The team has won just one of his last eight starts overall, against Baltimore ironically, but it was a one-run victory. That's a result we'll be just fine w/ here. Gaviglio has a 5.82 ERA and 1.676 WHIP his L7 starts and last time out surrendered five runs in just 4 1/3 innings - against Kansas City. Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles and while his recent numbers are no better, his numbers over the course of the entire season are better than Gaviglio's. Bundy has actually been a better pitcher on the road this season. He also has a 2.27 ERA in nine career appearances vs. Toronto. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

10* Houston (10:10 ET): The Astros came through for me in a MAJOR way Sunday, beating the A's 9-4. That win allowed the World Champs to stay in first place in the AL West as they now have a one-game lead over Oakland. Without question, this has been the roughest stretch of the season for the 'Stros as they've dropped seven of nine, not to mention 13 of their last 21. Monday finds them facing a familiar foe as this will be the third series in less than a month w/ Seattle. Houston should be highly motivated as they head to the Pacific Northwest given they were swept by the Mariners (at home) last weekend. In terms of overachieving and underacheiving when it comes to wins and losses vs. run differential, here are your two biggest "offenders." The 75-49 Astros have a run differential of +200, meaning they've actually played to the level of an 85-win team. Meanwhile, the 71-54 Mariners have been OUTSCORED by 42 runs this season, meaning they have the win expectancy of a 58-win team. I expect those gaps to rectify themselves. Love Houston here. 

The Astros send Gerrit Cole out to the mound for Monday's opener. He was outstanding in his last start, striking out 12 (no walks), while allowing just one run on five hits in six innings. Cole did take a loss in the last Seattle series, allowing four runs in 7 1/3. That actually tied for a season-high in runs allowed (done three other times), but his two previous starts against the Mariners saw him allow a total of just three runs in 13 1/3 IP. Cole comes in w/ a 2.71 ERA and 0.983 WHIP (18-7 TSR) and has 17 quality starts to his name. As a reminder, Houston is one of the highest scoring road teams in all of baseball (5.4 rpg) and no other team comes close to their run diff on the road (+2.4 rpg). They are 60-32 their L92 games priced as road favorites of -125 to -175 on the money line. 

In typical Seattle fashion, their one win over the Dodgers over the weekend was by one run while they were outscored 23-2 in the two losses. Those kind of results are how you get to 17 games over .500 despite being outscored on the season. No team has more one-run victories (31), but they've been outscored by 73 runs in the other 94 games. Felix Hernandez rejoins the rotation here and while there was a time it would have been unfathomable to find him in this price range at Safeco Field, that time has clearly passed. King Felix's best days are clearly behind him as evidenced by a 10.53 ERA and 1.975 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he allowed 11 runs in 6 IP. Though only 4.5 games separate these teams in the AL West standings, the real gap in talent is far greater than that. 10* Houston 

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Orioles +1.5. Both of these teams were substantial underdogs on the money line and lost accordingly. In fact, they both went down by exactly eight runs. But the O's, at least on paper, should have more of a chance here in Toronto than they did in Cleveland over the weekend. Meanwhile, this is obviously a drop in class for the Blue Jays after being swept in New York. The last two series between these AL East rivals indicate a substantial edge for the Jays (both sweeps) and all of those games did take place here, "North of the Border." Overall, Toronto is 9-1 vs. Baltimore this season. But I feel the revenge-minded O's will do no worse than a one-run loss here. Play the run line. 

It's almost hard to fathom just how truly wretched this season has bee in Baltimore. They are currently 50.5 games out of first place as well as 50 games under .500! Believe it or not, they do NOT own MLB's worst run differential though. That belongs to Kansas City at -217. (Baltimore -191). But the O's are no better than the second worst team in all of baseball and are 16-46 on the road. But I like the revenge angle and the RL here. One of their losses in Cleveland over the weekend was by one run and they also won a game. They've also won the last two starts made by tonight's pitcher Andrew Cashner and both times Cashner turned in a quality outing. He's allowed just 3 ER, on nine hits, in 14 innings of work over that time. Cashner also owns a 1.93 ERA in three previous starts vs. Toronto this season. 

The Jays really came unraveled yday w/ manager John Gibbons getting ejected, but not before getting into it w/ his own CF Kevin Pillar, who got caught making the final out in the sixth by trying to steal. This is not a great team by any measure either and the fact that they're so prohibitively favored here opens up the rare opportunity to take an additional 1.5 runs and go against them. Starter Marco Estrada is of B2B rough outings where he allowed nine runs in 12 IP, including four home runs. It's difficult to continually sweep the same opponent. Twice in a row is pretty rare, but three straight times is almost unheard of. Baltimore will win a game in this series and note that five of their nine losses to Toronto this year have come by exactly one run. 8* Run Line Baltimore

10* Houston (4:05 ET): Enough is enough! The sputtering Astros are now tied w/ the A's for first place in the American League West after losing here in Oakland each of the last two days. This despite a run differential that's near the top in all of MLB (+195), only surpassed by Boston. They've outscored their opponents by a far greater margin this season than Oakland (+72) has, though the Athletics are certainly viable playoff contenders nonetheless. Overall, Houston has now dropped seven of its last eight games, easily it's worst stretch of baseball this season. Meanwhile, Oakland has now won 40 out of its last 53 games. But help for the Astros comes in the form of Justin Verlander on Sunday. Individually, Verlander is just as overdue for some success as his team is. I'm pushing all my chips to the center of the table on the Astros today. 

Verlander has most definitely been one of the game's best pitchers in 2018. He has a 2.52 ERA and 0.913 WHIP, which rank 4th and 2nd in the American League respectively. He's also third in both strikeouts (217) and innings pitched (164 1/3). Yet somehow, even w/ this team as talented as it is, the Astros have gone just 14-12 in Verlander's 26 starts. Last time out was emblematic of what I'm talking about as he shut Colorado out for five innings before giving up a 2-run HR. Still, that's all he allowed and he exited in the sixth having struck out 11 batters. But Houston lost the game, 5-1. It was the eighth time this season that Verlander recorded 10+ K's. Last time he faced the A's, he threw six shutout innings, yet did not factor into the decision (due to the bullpen). Simply put, it's time for Verlander to earn a 'W.' 

Remember that there's almost a homefield DISadvantage when these teams meet, given what the stats say. Houston entered this series tied w/ Oakland as the two highest scoring road teams in all of MLB. The A's scoring average dips all the way down to 3.8 rpg at home. Yet, despite having scored and allowed roughly the same number of runs at home this season, their record here is now 37-24. They hand the baseball to Sean Manaea on Sunday and while he's had a good season, he's not as good as Verlander on his best day. Yes, I'm all too aware that the Astros are still w/o Jose Altuve. But it is time. Time, that is, for them to finally breakthrough and play like the team we saw for the first four months of the season. 10* Houston

8* Atlanta (1:35 ET): Colorado won ANOTHER lucky won last night, this time scoring five runs over the final two frames to stun the Braves, 5-3. The game required an addition inning after the Rockies were able to tie things up w/ a three-run rally in the ninth. All three runs came w/ them down to their final out. It was Colorado's third straight win here in Atlanta, the second where they scored three runs in the ninth to either win or tie. This is an addition to their three one-run victories over the Dodgers in the last series, two of those coming in walk-off fashion. Though in prime contention for both the Wild Card and the NL West, the Rockies should feel pretty fortunate to have a 67-56 record considering they've been outscored on the season. They're one of baseball's biggest overachievers, at least in my eyes. 

Home teams don't get swept very often in four game series. That's the prospect they are facing Sunday and will give the baseball to Anibal Sanchez, who has a 3.17 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 16 starts this season. His last start was not his strongest as he gave up five runs in five innings, but such outings are rare from Sanchez. The Braves have been a good home team all year, so the results of this series have been surprising to me. They came in riding a six-game win streak. Granted, five of those were at the expense of the lowly Marlins. But now there's a real sense of urgency w/ Philadelphia only one-half game back in the National League East. The team is 5-2 this season when on a losing streak of three or more games.

Colorado goes w/ German Marquez here. He has a 4.58 ERA and 1.341 WHIP in 24 starts w/ the Rockies going 13-11. His last time out, Marquez won as a big underdog against Justin Verlander and the Astros. But bottom line is that the worm has to be ready to turn sooner rather than later against these Rockies after all the recent close victories. They are 21-12 in one-run games this year, a sign of good fortune. Atlanta is 16-8 themselves in one-run games, but has a far better YTD run differential. I just do not see the Braves being swept at home. 8* Atlanta

10* Chicago (9:05 ET): The Bears are a team w/ a 1st year head coach (Matt Nagy) that has yet to taste its first victory of the preseason. They've played twice mind you, losing both games close. They covered for me in the Hall of Fame Game, losing 17-16 as underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens. They followed that up LW w/ a 30-27 loss at Cincinnati. Unlike the Ravens game where they scored late to "steal" the cover, that loss to the Bengals saw them ALLOW a late TD to blow the lead and cover and they left w/ no cash in what closed as a pick 'em game. I fully expect the Monsters of the Midway to want to win this week's game for their new HC and it should come easy against a Denver team that was absolutely shredded last week in a 42-28 home loss to Minnesota. Take the points. 

Last season was the first on the job for Denver HC Vance Joesph. He went 4-0 SU/ATS in the preseason, but that did not translate to the regular season where the team finished a very disappointing 5-11 SU. The defense isn't what it once was and the offense had (has?) a hole at the most important position (quarterback). To address that issue, Case Keenum was brought in to be the starter. But in limited action LW, he was able to complete just 1 of 4 passes for five yards. Behind him is Paxton Lynch, who is quickly turning into a major bust, and Chad Kelly. Kelly was a surprise last week, throwing for two TD passes and 177 yards against the Vikings backups. But I wouldn't expect a repeat performance of that. Then there is the Broncos' defense, which gave up 24 pts in the first half and 400 yds for the game. I'm not a big Joseph fan and wouldn't be surprised to see him gone at the end of this season. 

Now the Bears certainly have things to work on themselves here, namely turnovers. They have 7 TO's so far, but the good news is that that's correctable. Their own defense gave up 447 yds, but the offense gained 423 of its own. Starters will play deeper into the first half here. Most of the key offensive weapons saw very limited or no time last week, but that'll change here w/ Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen and Allen Robinson all suiting up. Having an extra game under their belt at this point will help the Bears here. 10* Chicago

8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): The Braves came into this series w/ the Rockies pretty hot as in they'd won six straight games. Granted, five of those came at the expense of the hapless Marlins, but they still could lay claim to having the best run differential in the National League. (That means something). Unfortunately though, this series has not gone according to script for those rooting for the home team. Atlanta has lost both games, including 11-5 yday. I took a tough loss on them in the opener when they allowed three unearned runs in the top of the ninth. The Braves still lead the NL East mind you, but by just one-half game over the Phillies. So there should be a real "sense of urgency" heading into Saturday's contest at SunTrust Park. I'm still a believer, which is more than I can say for my view on Colorado.

I look at the NL West standings and am absolutely mystified at how the Rockies can be ahead of the Dodgers. It is LA that now lays claim to the NL's best run differential (+103) while the Rockies have actually been outscored over the course of the 2018 season (-16 run differential)! So consider this team's 66-56 WL record to be pretty fraudulent. They've played to the level of a 59-win team. I'm simply not buying them as legit playoff contenders. I certainly don't expect their offense to duplicate what they did last night. Meanwhile, the Braves are 33-19 off a loss this year. 

For years, Colorado's offensive production has "fallen off a cliff" when leaving the freindly conditions of Coors Field. The drop-off isn't quite as striking in 2018, but still the team only averages 4.4 rpg on the road w/ a .232 team batting average. As for the pitching, starter Antonio Senzatela is winless in three away starts this year, posting a 5.71 ERA. Senzatela again replaces Chad Bettis (disabled list) in the rotation after spending some time himself on the DL. Tonight will be his first time starting an actual game in 16 days. Atlanta counters w/ Mike Foltynewicz, who has been quite sharp of late. He's posted a 1.83 ERA his L3 starts, winning all of them. Truthfully, it's been a strong season overall. He has a 2.86 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 23 starts. Last time out, he went eight innings and allowed just one run against Miami. There was a stretch in July where Foltynewicz allowed 4+ ER in four consecutive outings, but other than that he's allowed two or fewer in all but one of the other 19! 8* Atlanta

Note: Today's originally scheduled *10* TOTAL POWER was set to be Under Miami-Washington. But a pitching change cancelled plans. After then re-examining today's card, Power has found another O/U play worthy of the designation! 

10* Over Giants/Reds (7:10 ET): The Giants have had issues scoring runs lately, like last night when they were beaten by the Reds 2-1 in 11 innings. The Under is now 5-0-1 their past six games w/ the offense averaging just 2.5 rpg during that time. But at least with Madison Bumgarner on the hill tonight, it certainly shouldn't take many runs to win tonight, right? Wrong! 

Bumgarner has struggled on the road this year. He has a 4.18 ERA and 1.639 WHIP and had been winless before his last start where he was bailed out by a late rally against the Dodgers' failing bullpen. It's also interesting to note that over his last three starts Bumgarner's WHIP (1.50) is identical to his ERA. That's something you often don't see and a clear sign he's gotten away w/ not allowing many runs despite a high number of baserunners. Walks are usually a culprit in an issue such as this and sure enough MadBum has eight of them those L3 starts. Even though the Reds have been held to three runs or fewer in five straight games, I think they'll be able to score at least a few in tonight's ballgame. 

The good news for the Giants is that their offense should wake up here against Matt Harvey. Harvey did pitch well his last time out, but that was his first quality effort in nearly two months. He's also allowed a total of seven home runs his last four starts. When Harvey faced the Giants earlier this year, he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs. It should be noted that there were plenty of hits in last night's game (19 total), but the two teams combined to go just 2 for 14 (1 for 7 each) w/ RISP and left 16 runners on base. Watch as this one sneaks Over the total. 10* Over Giants/Reds

8* Oakland (4:00 ET): We've seen some substantial line movement here, which - at least so far this preseason - has typically been a sign to "follow the money." One could certainly argue that the Rams will want to atone for an ugly showing in the first week of the preseason where they were routed by the Ravens 33-7. But there's yet to be any real indication that the Rams are taking the preseason very seriously. This is a team w/ a clear eye on the regular season and making the playoffs. Their activity in the offseason puts them on a short list of Super Bowl contenders for some. But there has been some turmoil, namely the Aaron Donald holdout. HC Sean McVay held out most of his starters in Week 1 and has vowed to do the same here. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders are operating under a 1st year HC (Jon Gruden), thus they will be more inclined to be motivated. They did win their preseason opener, at home, 16-10 over the Lions. Now, both coaches have publicly stated that they'd rather NOT play this game considering the teams will open the regular season opener against each other on Monday Night Football. So you can expect some pretty vanilla game plans. Again though, that nullifies that talent edge that the Rams have, at least when at full strength. Withe the Raiders coming off a disappointing 2017 season (went 6-10 SU), they've got more question marks and thus position battles where individual players are competing for spots on the roster. It might not be until late in the game, but eventually it will become apparent that the Raiders are the more motivated side here.

Oakland's defense held Detroit to just 227 total yards last week, so I wouldn't expect them to be a problem against a Rams' offense that probably won't show anything. Rams' QB Sean Mannion looked terrible last week against Baltimore, completing only 3 of 13 pass attempts for 16 yards. Brandon Allen did better, but still threw for only 73 yards. Again, Jared Goff is almost a lock NOT to play. For the Raiders, Derek Carr did take some snaps LW and I'll take his backups - Connor Cook and EJ Manuel - over what Los Angeles has to offer. 8* Oakland

10* Houston (10:05 ET): The Astros snapped an UGLY nine-game home losing skid on Wednesday, routing the Rockies 12-1. That's the kind of performance we've been accustomed to seeing from the reigning World Series Champs this season as they've now outscored the opposition by 202 runs. Tonight, they begin a very important series w/ the second place team in the AL West, that being Oakland. The gap is just two games in the standings, but Houston's run differential is vastly superior. Also, homefield may actually be a DISadvantage when these teams meet as they are 1-2 in all of MLB in runs scored on the ROAD. Houston is just 33-29 at home, but an incredible 41-18 on the road where they are an amazing +2.6 rpg over their opponents. Meanwhile, Oakland's offense declines from 5.5 rpg on the road all the way down to 3.8 rpg at home! Take the road team!

True to form, the Astros a perfect 6-0 in Oakland this season, outscoring them 50-16! Now all six wins came before the A's caught fire. Over the last two months, Oakland is 32-11 overall and they took three of four games in Houston right before the All-Star Break. However, what has greatly aided the A's is the fact they've generally been a far luckier team than the Astros. Specifically, they have gone 25-10 in one-run games. They are far less fraudulent than, say Seattle, but not on the level of the "Big Four" in the American League (those four teams being the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Indians). Note that before losing in extra innings to Seattle (2-0) on Wednesday, the A's previous three wins all came by exactly one run. 

We have a matchup of two veteran pitchers for Friday's opener, both of whom are having "turn back the clock" type seasons. Houston's Charlie Morton is 12-3 in his 23 starts this year w/ a 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Of the 22 parks he has wins at in his 10-year career, this one is not yet among them. So this should be a "special" game for Morton. Last time out saw him toss another quality effort, his 17th of 2018. He's allowed more than 3 ER just three times all year. As for Oakland, they go w/ Edwin Jackson, who shockingly has not allowed a single earned run in any of his last three starts. But how long can that streak last? My guess is "not much longer" as here he faces a team that can certainly score in bunches (George Springer expected back as well). Another thing to consider is that Jackson has faced a fairly weak slate of opponents since coming into the rotation. This will be his toughest test to date and one I do not expect him to pass. 10* Houston 

10* Detroit (7:00 ET): Both of these teams have first year head coaches and both dropped their respective preseason opener. In the case of the Giants, now led by Pat Shurmur, they lost 20-10 at home to the Cleveland Browns (a team Shurmur formerly coached). Matt Patricia's Detroit Lions lost their opener 16-10 at Oakland. Can you believe its only been two years since BOTH of these teams were in playoffs? Me either. The Giants fell harder last year as an injury-riddled team basically quit on Ben McAdoo and finished 3-13 SU. The Lions were 9-7 SU and actually finished w/ a better point differential (+34) than they did in their 2017 season playoff season. But it still wasn't enough to save Jim Caldwell's job. Bottom line here is I expect Patricia and his coaching staff to be highly motivated to win the first time in front of the fanbase. 

The lone highlight for the Giants in that first preseason game may have been the performance of #2 overall draft choice, RB Saquon Barkley. He went for 39 yards on his first carry. Sadly though, it's highly unlikely he'll be seeing any time in this game. Barkley suffered what is being termed a "minor hamstring injury" and did not participate in the joint practices w/ the Lions this week. At QB, Eli Manning is at the point in his career where the preseason is fairly useless. That leaves an underwhelming trio of signal-callers for Shurmer to rely on here. Last week saw Davis Webb, Alex Tanney and Kyle Lauletta combine for 167 passing yards on 38 attempts. Hardly inspiring. The G-Men were 4 of 17 on third down last week as well.

Detroit was hardly impressive in Patricia's debut. They too scored 10 pts and gained just 227 total yards (3.5 yards per play). They were 3 of 14 on third downs and neither QB - Jake Rudock or Matt Cassel - attempted to throw the ball downfield much. Like I said earlier though, the determining factor here should be the homefield advantage as Patricia looks to win over the fanbase. One interesting stat is that the Lions are 11-1 SU their last 12 preseason home games, covering the spread nine times. I fully expect them to "play to win the game" Friday night. 10* Detroit

8* Philadelphia (6:05 ET): The Phillies were able to exact a little bit of revenge on the Mets last night by taking Game 2 of the doubleheader, 9-6. But that doesn't even begin to atone for what happened to them in the first game of the twinbill where they lost in absolutely humiliating fashion, 24-4. The Mets are not a good team (obviously!), so look for them to still be highly motivated entering Friday evening's contest in the City of Brotherly Love. Yesterday's events leave the Phils 1.5 games back of the Braves (who lost yday) in the National League East w/ a quarter of the season still to play. The Wild Card is also obviously still in play. Do I think the Phillies are as good as some of the other contenders? No. But are they SIGNIFICANTLY better than the Mets? Absolutely.

As you might expect to find, it was a real "comedy of errors" in Game 1 of the doubleheader yday. Four errors from the defense and three position players were used to pitch. The Mets had a 10-run inning. Look for none of that to be repeated moving forward. Instead, tonight we should get a strong start from Aaron Nola, who checks in w/ a 2.28 ERA and 1.00 WHIP on the season. He's 13-3 in 24 starts (17-7 TSR) and has allowed 1 ER or less 13 times. In addition to ranking third in the National League in both ERA and WHIP, Nola is 5th in innings pitched (154) and 7th in strikeouts (149). Last time out, he tossed six shutout innings against the hapless Padres, a team on that's pretty much "on par" w/ the Mets offensively. That was on the road. At home, Nola is unbeaten (8-0) in 11 starts and the team has gone a perfect 11-0.

This game does set up to be a bit of a "pitchers duel" w/ Noah Syndergaard toeing the rubber for the Mets. But Nola has beaten Syndergaard before, doing so last season. It's Syndergaard's only career loss to the Phillies, but Nola is 4-1 all-time against the Mets. Furthermore, while the Mets have generally been successful since Syndergaard returned to the rotation (won 4 of his 5 starts), but he has a 4.43 ERA in his L3 outings. These "pitcher duel" type matchups seem to suit Philly well as they're a perfect 4-0 this season at home when the total is 7 or less. Led by Nola's 11-0 TSR, they are 40-20 overall at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets have shockingly scored 46 runs the L3 games and are obviously due to cool WAY off. 8* Philadelphia

8* Over Tigers/Twins (8:05 ET): Outside of Cleveland, the American League Central pretty much stinks this year. No other team in the division is likely to top 75 wins. So, both the Tigers and Twins are basically playing for little else but pride at this point. Minnesota is better (and at home), but I'm not about to lay this price on them even w/ Detroit's terrible (18-41!) road record. Instead I'll turn to a total which I think is a shade too low. The last series between these teams (contested in Detroit last week) saw all three games go Under the total. In fact, the Under is now 8-1 this season when these teams meet (cashed 5 straight times). But I think we're in store for a higher scoring affair tonight. Take the Over. 

Detroit only averages 3.3 runs per game on the road, which helps explain why their record is so lousy. But they certainly give up their fair share of runs as well. They allow 4.9 rpg away from home for the season and have given up at least six in each of the last four road games. Tonight's starter Francisco Liriano has seen the Under cash in each of his last three starts, one of those against the Twins last weekend. But Liriano has not had a great season by any means. He's 3-7 in 18 starts (6-12 TSR) w/ a 4.71 ERA and 1.463 WHIP. Lately, his numbers have been even worse as he's lasted no more than five innings in any of his previous five outings. He gave up three runs in five innings vs. the Twins last Saturday and finished w/ more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). In dropping 9 of their last 12 games overall, the Tigers have allowed 6+ runs in six of those losses, including each of the last two days. 

Starting tonight for Minnesota will be Ervin Santana. It'll be just his fifth start of 2018 (finger injury), but his second straight against the Tigers. Last time out, he gave up only three hits, but two were home runs and thus ended up allowing a total of five runs. All told, it has not been a positive return to the rotation for Santana. His four starts have yielded a 6.53 ERA and 1.404 WHIP. Somehow, the Twins have still managed to win three of the four, but I wouldn't expect that win percentage to continue. Santana has allowed at least three runs in every start and as he himself pointed out the bullpen is a lot weaker now w/ closer Fernando Rodney having been dealt at the trade deadline. The good news for Minnesota is that they pounded out 11 runs the last two games (against Pittsburgh). Both teams should score more than expected here. 8* Over Tigers/Twins

8* Green Bay (8:00 ET): It's been a rather traumatizing week in Steelers camp w/ Ben Roethlisberger getting knocked down in practice and ending up in the league's concussion protocol. Thus, I have to believe the team is just going to want to "get through" this Week 2 preseason game in Green Bay. Taking advantage of three Eagles turnovers, the Steelers won their first preseason game, 31-14. I do not anticipate they'll be as fortunate this week. Lay the points.

QB Aaron Rodgers will make his preseason debut here (will likely play for just a few series) for the Packers. But even if he leads the offense to a score or two, it will be more than worth it. Rodgers has made headlines by ripping his young receiving corps for what he perceived as some "sloppy" practices. So expect that group to be motivated Thursday night. One thing is for certain and that's Green Bay had no problems racking up yardage on offense in the first preseason game. They ended up w/ 445 in a 31-17 win and cover over the Titans. Overall, they had three TD drives of 75+ yards. Behind Rodgers will be Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer, both of whom have started regular season games last year. Both should be able to move the ball against the Steelers' backups.

The Packers are one of the teams that seem to take the preseason fairly seriously. They've won seven of their last nine overall, scoring 20 or more pts in four of the last five. They've also been particularly strong at home where they've won eight of nine in preseason play, including six straight. Meanwhile, I just can't see the Steelers taking this one too seriously. (Remember, there's no LeVeon Bell either). It's been a tough week of camp w/ multiple injury scares. Do not be surprised is Pittsburgh ends up being a bit of a disappointment this season. 8* Green Bay

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Pardon the pun, but Colorado was "rocked" yesterday, losing 12-1 to the Astros. I'm happy to report that I was on the right side of that one. For the Rockies, the loss snapped a four-game win streak. Three of those wins (all against the Dodgers) were by exactly one run, two of them coming in the final at-bat. This is a team that has largely overachieved in 2018 as they have a 64-56 record despite being outscored this season by 24 runs. That run differential has them at the level of a 57-win team, not a 64-win one. Tonight, they begin a new series in Atlanta against a red-hot Braves team that has won five straight (just swept the Marlins). There's nothing phony about this Braves team either as they have the NL's best run differential at +97. 

The Rockies starter for Thursday night is Jon Gray. Each of his last seven starts have resulted in a win for the team, but despite this, his overall numbers remain quite mediocre. Three of his last four starts have seen the Rockies prevail by just a single run. Last time out, he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. For the year, he has a 4.74 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in 22 starts. His TSR is 13-9, so before this win streak began, he was a losing proposition at the betting window. I can't see it continuing. Keep in mind that Gray had to be sent down to Triple-A Albuquerque at one point to work on his mechanics. Obviously, the move has since paid off, but I still don't view him as any kind of dominant starter. Let's also not forget how Colorado's offense generally declines away from home. 

The big story here for Atlanta is the status of Ronald Acuna, Jr, who is perhaps the hottest hitter in all of baseball right now. Acuna had homered in five consecutive games before getting hit by a pitch yday. He exited w/ a sore forearm. But whether or not he plays, I still have faith in the Braves here. Having Julio Teheran start definitely helps as he's off a masterful start here at home last Saturday vs. Milwaukee. He allowed just one run on two hits. Teheran has pitched well against Colorado in his career, going 5-1 w/ a 2.31 ERA in nine starts. He did not face them earlier this year when the Braves took two of three at Coors Field. Atlanta is a much better team at home than on the road (34-23 at home), so considering what they were able to do in Denver back in April, I absolutely love them here (especially at this price!). 10* Atlanta 

10* New England (7:30 ET): Think there might be some motivation from the favorite here? Even Tom Brady is likely to see time in this one as the Patriots look to exact a little bit of revenge here against the Eagles. Granted no matter what takes place Thursday night, it cannot erase the memory of what happened to the Patriots last February in Super Bowl 52. That was the rare instance of a Bill Belichick team seemingly being outplayed and outcoached. Preseason or not, if you don't think the New England coaching staff wants to win this one, you're kidding yourself.

The Super Bowl Champion Eagles committed three turnovers in a 31-14 loss to the Steelers last week. They looked anything but the part of defending Super Bowl Champs, but it was just the 1st preseason game. Perhaps the only interesting thing that they did was attempt a two-point conversion after each touchdown (went 1 for 2). Neither of Philadelphia's top two quarterbacks - Carson Wentz or Nick Foles - took a snap. Since Wentz has yet to be cleared for contact, he's unlikely to play at all in the preseason. Foles, who is battling neck spasms, will start. But HC Doug Pederson will probably have Foles on a short leash. Only one starting receiver will see time and that's newcomer Mike Wallace. The first team defense was the bright spot LW vs. the Steelers, but won't be out there long either.

Again, I feel this one comes down to simple motivation. Under Belichick, New England has been driven by spite and any measure of revenge they can exact on the Eagles - no matter how small - is something worth going for. Consider that even though they fell behind by double digits last week, the Patriots rallied back to win and cover against Washington, 26-17 as 2.5-pt chalk. As far as "wanting to win the game" goes, the Pats outscored the Redskins last week 23-0 in the second half. They clearly were playing to win. If that's the case, you can only imagine the mindset entering this one. 10* New England

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers are heading in the wrong direction right now. They've lost five in a row, four of them coming by exactly one run. The fifth loss saw them allow four runs in the top of the ninth (lost 5-2). So it's been quite the unlucky stretch. Closer Kenley Jansen is clearly missed, but I believe the team can fight through. Tonight, they hope to avoid being swept by the rival Giants. Despite what's happened the last two days, I feel the Dodgers are still the vastly superior team. They still own the NL's second best run differential (+92) while the Giants have been outscored by 33 runs this season. After losing four straight games in the ninth inning, it's time for LA to break through. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu will pitch tonight for the home team. This is his first start since May 2nd as he's been on the DL due to a groin strain. He's made two home starts in 2018 and didn't give up a run in either. He's 3-0 in six starts overall w/ a 2.12 ERA and 0.876 WHIP. Look for the Dodgers' bullpen to improve as starters Ross Stripling and Kenta Maeda have both been moved there. The Giants aren't a particularly good road team as they only average 3.6 runs per game. They're also 5-9 off three or more consecutive victories. 

On the mound, the Giants go w/ Derek Holland, who has also spent time working out of the bullpen himself this season. He's also started 22 times. He's never beaten the Dodgers in four tries, posting a 6.38 ERA. Two of those four starts have come here in '18 and he's allowed seven runs in 8 1/3 innings. Look for the Dodgers to finally get it done tonight. 8* LA Dodgers

6* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros have now lost NINE straight home games and five in a row overall. To call these streaks highly irregular would be putting it midly. This is a ballclub which still stands at 73-47 and has outscored its opponents by 191 runs over the course of the season. They are battling a number of injuries, yes, but one would have thought their pitching could have held things together. Last night's loss came as huge favorites w/ Justin Verlander on the hill. Verlander had retired 13 of 14 batters and had a 1-0 lead when things began to unravel. Colorado wound up scoring in each of the final four innings and the Astros managed little offensively. But still, with Gerrit Cole on the mound this evening, I have to believe this losing streak comes to an end. 

The current five-game skid matches Houston's longest of the entire season. They have not won a home game since before the All-Star Break, which - again - is downright shocking. Equally as shocking though is the fact Cole is 0-3 his L3 starts despite a 1.053 WHIP. He did allow four runs his last time out (tied season high), but consider he'd dropped only two decisions total before the current losing streak. He has an 8-3 team start record at home this season w/ a 2.76 ERA and 0.935 WHIP, right in line w/ his overall numbers. He's 3-1 w/ a 2.56 ERA all-time vs. Colorado. That won-loss record doesn't even include an 8-2 Astros victory over the Rockies earlier this season where Cole allowed just two runs on five hits in 6 1/3 IP (no decision for him). That was also in Coors Field where Colorado is obviously a lot more prolific offensively. 

While the Astros are underachieving this year relative to their run differential (they have the run diff of an 83-win team), Colorado is overachieving. They've been outscored by 13 runs this season, meaning they've played to the level of a 58-win team. Over the weekend, they pulled out three consecutive one-run victories over the Dodgers, which should be considered highly fortunate. Starting tonight for them will be Tyler Anderson, who has struggled of late w/ a 6.75 ERA his L3 starts. Like Cole, he has a 0-3 TSR his L3 outings. He is also winless in three Interleague starts this season and tonight marks the first time in his career he's ever started a game in an AL park. Anderson faced Cole back on 7.24 and also did not factor into the decision. 6* Houston

10* Under Indians/Reds (7:10 ET): Well, Cleveland's pitching has certainly done its job in this Interleague series, holding the Reds to just four runs in two games. Yet, both games have managed to go Over the total by virtue of the Indians' offense, which has exceeded expectations. The Tribe typically do no score as many runs on the road compared to at home. In fact, they are the second highest scoring home team in all of baseball. On the road, their scoring average dips down to 4.5 rpg, over a full run less per game than what they average at Progressive Field. The key in this series though has been a few big innings. Monday, they had a seven run inning, which was the difference in a 10-3 game. Last night, they jumped on the Reds early w/ six runs in the first two frames. If we can avoid that kind of "clustering," then I have no doubt that the Under comes in tonight. Something else to note is that the number is a lot better than last night as this time we're a half-run ABOVE the key number of 9.

As expected, Corey Kluber shut down the Reds w/ little difficulty last night. He allowed just one run on five hits. That followed a strong effort by Monday starter Mike Clevinger, who held the Reds to just two runs. Tonight's starter is Shane Bieber and he should continue the trend as he's off a very strong outing where he didn't allow any runs in 6 2/3 IP. In fact, he gave up only three hits. Sadly though, Cleveland lost the game 1-0. Still, the Under has come in for each of Bieber's last three starts and he should have little difficulty in shutting down a Reds offense that has shown little signs of life the last two days. 

Cleveland's offense, theoretically, should be hurt by the fact they lose the DH from the batting order. It's had no effect so far, but I believe tonight it will catch up w/ them. I already talked about how the number of runs per game scored declines on the road. Reds pitching simply has not done a good job in the series, but it might be different tonight w/ Robert Stephenson on the hill. Stephenson is off a successful stint in the minors where he went 6-0 w/ a 1.23 ERA in his final seven starts down at Triple A-Louisville. These teams have gone Over in every meeting this season, but tonight breaks the trend. 10* Under Indians/Reds

6* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Like the Astros, the Dodgers are significantly better than their won-loss record. They lead the NL in run differential (actually tied w/ the Cubs at +93), a metric which I have always felt is a better predictor of future success than actual won-loss record. That said, Dodger Blue can't afford to sit back and just rely on said run differential. They are "somehow" tied w/ the Rockies (who have been outscored over the course of the season) for second place in the NL West and just four games up on the team that beat them Monday, San Francisco, who has an even worse run differential (-34) than Colorado. Even Clayton Kershaw couldn't prevent LA from losing a fourth straight game last night. But I think they'll come through tonight in what feels like a "must-win" spot.

While the Dodgers won't have Kershaw on the bump here, the Giants won't have Madison Bumgarner either. The former Cy Youngs squared off last night and the end result was a 5-2 SF win that was decided not by the two aces, but rather a beleaguered Dodgers bullpen that is sorely missing closer Kenley Jansen. The Giants scored four times in the top of the ninth, making it the third straight game they entered the final frame tied/ahead and lost. Before last night, they'd lost three straight one-run games to the Rockies. But against Andrew Suarez tonight, I don't envision the Dodgers allowing this one to be decided by the bullpens. Suarez comes in w/ a 5.61 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. The last time he pitched away from home, he allowed eight runs in five innings (at Arizona). 

The key for the Dodgers in this series is they have depth in their starting rotation while the Giants really do not. Alex Wood gets the nod tonight and he has been just outstanding of late. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine straight starts and had he recorded one more out in two of the nine, then we'd be looking at nothing but quality starts during that stretch. Expect Wood to outduel Suarez in this battle of southpaws and for the Dodgers offense to actually show up for once. It's not like the Giants are a good road team; they average only 3.6 rpg away from home. 6* LA Dodgers

6* Houston (8:10 ET): Shockingly, the Astros have dropped EIGHT straight games at home. This includes sweeps at the hands of Texas and Seattle, the only two times they've been swept all season. Incredibly, their last win at Minute Maid Park came all the way back before the All-Star Break! Over the weekend, they suffered the indignity of a four-game sweep here at home (rare!) at the hands of the Mariners. Certainly, that series did not go the way most had anticipated. But they'll be up against another overrated foe this week, that being Colorado. With Justin Verlander on the bump Tuesday, I expect the 'Stros to roll and the losing streak to finally end. 

Curiously, Houston has been a lot more dominant on the road this season. Their run differential is way higher away from Minute Maid Park where they're only 32-28 overall, including a stunning 5-9 when Verlander starts! But it's only a matter of time before that gets rectified. Note Verlander has a 3.14 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in his 14 home starts. The fact he is off his worst start of the year (was ejected to boot) only strengthens my belief we'll sse a bounce back. Verlander has never lost to the Rockies in four career starts, posting a 1.88 ERA. Consider that he still is top four in the American League in ERA, WHIP, innings pitched and strikeouts. There's absolutely nothing wrong w/ him and he's due for better results moving forward. Truthfully, wins are a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher as Verlander is one of the game's best. 

Meanwhile, the Rockies should feel incredibly fortunate to be just a game back of Arizona over in the NL West. This is a club that's been outscored over the course of the season and they were lucky to take three of four from the Dodgers over the weekend (all three wins by one run, two in walkoff fashion). Maybe the fact they are in a AL park (DH!) somewhat nullifies any offensive decline from being removed from Coors Field. But starting in Houston won't be of any benefit to German Marquez, who has a 4.76 ERA and 1.376 WHIP, yet has a very similar TSR to Verlander (see what I mean about wins being a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher?). Marquez did have 10 strikeouts in his last start, but he also gave up 10 hits over six innings, meaning he was lucky to get away with allowing just three runs. As indicated by the oddsmakers here, the Astros are an infinitely superior team compared to the Rockies, especially w/ their ace on the bump. 6* Houston

8* Arizona (8:05 ET): The D'backs lost to the Rangers last night, a killer loss considering two of the three teams chasing them in the NL West are going head to head right now. The loss leaves them just one game ahead of both Colorado and the Dodgers in the division, as well as five up on the Giants (who beat LA Monday). While in the midst of a nine-game road trip, Arizona desperately needs better results. They're 1-3 so far on the trip, which comes against nothing but last place teams. Tonight is the last game of a short stint in Texas and one they simply must win before heading to San Diego for the weekend. I think they will as it was one mistake (3-run HR allowed by Greinke) that cost them last night. 

Generally speaking, pitching has NOT been an issue for Arizona this season. They're 3rd in all of MLB in team ERA and tied for fourth in quality starts. Only Boston & Houston, the two best teams in baseball, have given up fewer runs this season. Starting here will be Pat Corbin. He is having himself a fine season w/ a 3.09 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 24 starts. Given those numbers, he probably deserves better than a 14-10 TSR. The team has won each of his last four outings and has done so in pretty dominant fashion, outscoring the opposition 28-8. Last time out, Corbin tossed 7 1/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball against against Philly w/ 9 K's. Going back a bit further, opponents are batting just .227 against him his L9 starts. Corbin's KW ratio during that time is an impressive 66-10. 

The D'backs team batting average for the year is surprisingly low. But they're still 8th in MLB in runs scored per game. They also benefit from a DH being added to the lineup here and they're up against the team that gives up the highest number of runs per game at home in all of baseball. That's right. Texas allows more rpg in Arlington (6.0) than Colorado does at Coors Field (5.4). Tasked with starting tonight for the Rangers is Yovani Gallardo, who should feel extremely fortunate to have an 8-1 team start record considering his 4.98 ERA and 1.382 WHIP. The key for him has been getting the highest run support of any starter in all of MLB. The Rangers are averaging an astounding 11.43 rpg in Gallardo starts. No other pitcher is even close to that w/ the Indians' Carlos Carrasco (9.8) being 2nd. Eventually we're going to see that average drop and I say "why not here?" 8* Arizona

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the White Sox +1.5. It hasn't been a very good 2018 for the Tigers, but they've certainly had their way w/ the Sox, going 9-1 head to head against them. That includes a 9-5 win last night where they rallied back from an early three-run deficit and really beat up on the White Sox bullpen. Key was having Nicholas Castellanos back in the lineup (missed Sunday's Game) as he continued his torrid hittting against Chicago pitching w/ a career-high five hits. Interesting though is that of the nine wins this year against Chicago, last night was just the third by more than two runs for the Tigers. Tonight, I expect the underdog to do no worse than a one-run loss. Looking at these two clubs as a whole, I would not say that Detroit is so significantly better that they should be dominating to this degree. 

The White Sox probably should have been up even more last night, but ended up going just 2 for 9 w/ RISP. "We had more opportunities to add on runs, but we left them out there," manager Rick Renteria said. While another loss means little in the big picture, the White Sox have to be sick of losing to the Tigers at this point. Tonight, Renteria hands the baseball to Lucas Giolito, who was once thought of as a top prospect in the organization. He hasn't necessarily panned out that way (largely due to control issues), but the team is basically .500 (11-12) in his 23 starts. He was roughed up his last time out, but that was against the Yankees. Detroit's offense is nothing like what he faced there. In fact, the Tigers average fewer runs per game than do the White Sox. 

Given Detroit's success in the season series, it should not be that big of a surprise to find that tonight's starter Blaine Hardy is 2-0 against the White Sox in '18. He allowed just one run in both starts. However, he allowed five his last time out in what ended up being a 6-0 loss to the Angels. The Tigers have actually "forgotten to score" (i.e. shutout) in each of Hardy's last two starts. It's rare to find Detroit favored like this on the money line, which thus opened up the RL and I'll gladly take the +1.5 here. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

8* Under Indians/Reds (7:10 ET): Well, I lost w/ the Under last night as Cleveland actually remembered to "bring their bats" for this short road trip down I-71. Usually, the Indians are not a prolific offensive team away from Progressive Field. I went through this in yday's analysis, but they average only 4.5 rpg on the road, which is significantly down from the 5.7 rpg they average at home (2nd highest average in MLB). So consider yday's 10-run effort to be an abberration. Something else I mentioned in yday's analysis is how the Tribe typically score a good bulk of their runs in "cluster" form, i.e. one big inning or game. Sure enough, yesterday they had a seven-run inning, which was the difference. I don't expect that to happen again tonight and am back on the Under. 

One thing is for sure and that's we won't have to worry about one side of the ledger w/ Cleveland tonight. Corey Kluber will toe the rubber and that should take care of the Reds' offense. I'm a bit shocked to see that the Over is 15-8 in Kluber starts this season considering the former Cy Young winner has a sub-1.00 WHIP. He did allow four runs his last time out, but the Tribe still won that game, 7-4. Still, Kluber has a 0.729 WHIP his L3 starts, which is just outstanding. He threw a CG shutout his previous start and keep in mind this is a National League lineup he'll be facing tonight. That means no DH. In the past, Kluber has had little difficulty against the Reds. He's 3-0 against them w/ a 1.96 ERA in his career.

Of course, the National League rules work "both ways" and that means Cleveland will be w/o the DH as well. That should (theoretically) further weaken an offense that already suffers away from home (see above). They'll face Sal Romano (not the Mad Men character) tonight and his last time out saw Romano allow just one run on two hits. Granted, it was against the hapless Mets, but Romano has pitched pretty well of late overall. He's certainly an upgrade over last night's starter, Homer Bailey. In fact, back on 7.10, Romano beat Cleveland by holding them to four runs (three earned) over 7 1/3. He also gave up just five hits. Truthfully, I don't like the number (O/U line) so much here, but w/ the Over now 4-0 when these teams meet this season, I say it's "high time" for an Under to come through. 8* Under Indians/Reds

6* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Don't take the bait on what might look like a very tempting price on Madison Bumgarner Monday night. Of course, it takes one heck of a counterpart to put MadBum in such a price range, so it should come as little shock to find Clayton Kershaw starting opposite him for the Dodgers here. These two have had several battles in the past, though none until now in 2018. They've split the first 10 matchups against one another w/ the Dodgers and Giants winning five each, though Kershaw has the slightly better numbers head to head. To me, this price range is more than justified due to the respective teams. Though they've lost three straight, the Dodgers still lead the NL in run differential (+96) while the Giants should feel fortunate to still be hovering around .500 as they've been outscored by 37 runs this season. 

I cashed Los Angeles as my top NL West play for August back on Thursday. But then they subsequently dropped the next three games in Colorado, each of them by one run. The last two were both pretty excruciating as they lost in walkoff fashion both times. Saturday night saw them give up a three-run HR in the bottom of the ninth. Yesterday, it was a bases loaded walk that decided the game. Kenley Jansen being out definitely hurts the bullpen, but for tonight, it's "Kershaw to the rescue." The former Cy Young winners comes in w/ a 2.58 ERA and 1.066 WHIP and has made seven straight quality starts since the start of July. All-time against the Giants, Kershaw is 22-10 w/ a spectacular 1.60 ERA. He last faced them all the way back in April and allowed just one run in seven innings. His first start of '18 was also against them and there he again allowed just one run, this time six innings. 

Bumgarner, like Kershaw, has a TSR not befitting a pitcher of his caliber. However, on the road this season, MadBum has not pitched all that well. The team is just 1-4 in his five starts away from home due to a 4.44 ERA and 1.671 WHIP. Overall, the Giants are a pretty lousy road team as their record is just 25-34 and they average only 3.6 rpg. As you might be aware, Chavez Ravine has long been one of the top parks for visitor run suppression, both due to its confines and the stellar pitching of the home team. This Giants' offense has topped five runs in its last nine games to begin with, so don't expect Bumgarner to get a lot of support in this one. After an "unlucky" 2-4 road trip (all 4 losses by one run), I see better results ahead for the Dodgers upon returning home. 6* LA Dodgers

10* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): Save for Cleveland, the American League Central has been a complete "dumpster fire" in 2018 as the division is likely to produce four teams w/ at least 85 losses. Two of them meet here w/ the Tigers hosting the White Sox. Calling Detroit "the better team" here speaks volumes over the current state of the White Sox, who are 33 games below .500 (Tigers are 20 games below). The biggest reason for the gap between the two is the fact the Tigers are 8-1 against the White Sox this season. That includes a three-game sweep on the Southside of Chicago back in June. Though it's interesting to note that the Tigers have hardly "dominated" their division rival. All but one win has come by one or two runs. I think it's time for Chicago to exact a little revenge Monday night. 

The White Sox are off a hard-fought series w/ Cleveland. Down 9-1 heading into the bottom of the eighth Sunday, they fought their way all the way back to 9-7 before running out of outs. While they finished up the six-game homestand at 1-5, note they had to take on two likely playoff teams, the Yankees and Indians. This matchup, no matter the previous results, is a pretty obvious drop in class. They'll hand the baseball to Reynaldo Lopez for Monday's opener and he's off B2B quality efforts where he allowed only three runs total in 14 innings. Last time out, he was perfect through five innings against the Yankees (ended up w/ a no decision). Both of his starts against the Tigers this year have been quality as he's given up just three runs in 13 IP. Both ended up being one-run losses for the team, but I'm predicting a better result here. 

It looks as if the Tigers will have a real "patchwork" lineup coming into this series as outfielder Nicholas Castellanos (who has hit well against the White Sox) and Jacoby Jones are likely to miss tonight's game. On the mound, they'll turn to Artie Lewicki, who has not started a game since June. The trade of Michael Fiers, an injury to Michael Fulmer and general ineffectiveness from the remainder of the rotation are what led to Lewicki starting this one. His previous two starts, both against Cleveland, weren't very good as he has 5.19 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. He's made 12 appearances overall this season and hasn't been a whole lot better out of the bullpen. The Tigers did manage to take two of three from the Twins over the weekend (here at home), but their offense is still only averaging 2.7 rpg over the last week while batting a collective .199. 10* Chi White Sox

8* Under Indians/Reds (7:10 ET): The last series between these I-71 rivals saw all three games go Over the total. But that was in Cleveland where the Indians average 5.7 runs per game and both lineups got to benefit from the use of a designated hitter. (Only Boston scores more runs per game at home than does Cleveland, btw). Now, we shift to National League rules where the pitcher will have to come up to bat. The Indians' offense isn't nearly as strong on the road, averaging just 4.4 runs per game. But their pitching is still strong and thus I envision it being a low-scoring series opener Monday night. Take the Under. 

The Reds actually won two of the three games in Cleveland last month, scoring seven runs in each victory. However, one of those wins saw them score all seven runs late after being shutout for eight innings by Trevor Bauer. The other win did see them "rough up" Mike Clevinger, who they'll face again tonight. But that last performance against the Reds is in no way indicative of the kind of season Clevinger is having for the Indians. He comes in w/ a 0.944 WHIP his L3 starts and has allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his last four starts. Despite the bullpen nearly blowing it yday, note Cleveland got another strong start from Carlos Carrasco, who gave up just one run in seven innings. The Tribe have given up only 2.6 runs per game over the last week and are tied for 7th in runs allowed for the season. 

Cleveland's one win in the last series w/ the Reds saw them score 19 runs. Don't count on anything like that happening here though as the team often struggles to score away from home. Now they did cross the plate nine times in Sunday's victory, but that was after totaling just three runs in the first two games of the series. Cleveland's offense has been somewhat unique in that they often have a game where they score a ton of runs, but can also be anemic for long stretches. I realize that tonight they're up against Homer Bailey, who is having one of the worst seasons I can remember from any MLB starter. Bailey enters the game w/ a 1-14 TSR, but has been slightly better since rejoining the rotation last month. Sure, he was roughed up his last time out. But that came after B2B quality starts. The Under is 33-23 in all Indians' road games and that trend should continue tonight due to several factors (all listed above) lining up. 8* Under Indians/Reds

8* Run Line NY Mets (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Mets +1.5. Monday's starter Jacob deGrom is having himself one of the unluckiest seasons in recent memory. Despite posting the lowest ERA (1.77) among all qualified starters, not to mention ranking 2nd in WHIP among all NL starters, deGrom's team start record this year is just 9-14. That's owed to lousy run support, but armed w/ an additional 1.5 runs, the run line could change that for him tonight. deGrom has made 15 consecutive quality starts heading into Monday night where the Mets will meet the Yankees in a makeup game. Note that he was set to start the rained out game, back on June 22nd, so the Yankees can run, but they can't hide from deGrom here. The Mets will do no worse than a one-run loss Monday night, thanks to their starting pitcher. 

I had the Mets Sunday as they beat the Marlins 4-3. They actually come into this make-up date having won three of four, albeit at the expense of the Reds and Marlins. But deGrom gives them a chance against anybody, even the mighty Yankees. In his last start, deGrom would not be denied as he tossed eight scoreless innings w/ 10 strikeouts. The Mets actually won, 8-0. Incredibly, that was just the third time the team scored more than three runs in a deGrom start, dating all the way back to the start of May! Interesting though is that deGrom is rarely an underdog on the money line. Because he is here, it opens the possibility of the RL. Five times this season the Mets have lost a deGrom start by one run. It is incredible that there have been six times where deGrom has pitched 8+ innings this season and NOT gotten the win. That just doesn't happen very often. 

The Yankees will also be sending their ace to the bump Monday night. Luis Severino has a 19-5 TSR as he typically enjoys far greater run support than what deGrom gets. That said, while Severino had a great 1st half to the season, he hasn't looked like the same pitcher since the All-Star Break. The team has dropped three of his last four starts and twice he allowed at least 6 ER while lasting five innings or less. The Mets' offense isn't anything special, but remember they'll open this game "up 1.5 runs" for us. The price on deGrom +1.5 runs is simply too tempting to pass up! 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

6* Houston (2:10 ET): This series has NOT gone the way I had it expected it to as Seattle has come in and taken three straight. As a result, the M's now trail the Astros by just five games in the AL West. This is somewhat improbable given Houston has outscored its opponents by 196 runs this year while Seattle has actually been outscored (current run diff is -23). The key to the Mariners getting to 18 games above .500 is their rather fortunate 29-14 record in one-run games (not to mention 9-1 in extra inning games). Rarely do you see a home team get swept in a four-game series though and Houston has been swept only one time all season (by Texas two weeks ago). Despite the hefty price tag, I'll take 'em Sunday afternoon as my view is they are simply the vastly superior team.

Dallas Keuchel will be the one getting the baseball on Sunday for the 'Stros. He's been surpassed by "imports" like Verlander and Cole in the starting rotation, but is still very good. He's off B2B quality starts and the team is 7-1 his L8 starts overall. He's allowed 3 ER or less in all eight of those outings and last time out was able to outduel Madison Bumgarner of the Giants in a 2-1 win. Keuchel allowed just one run on three hits in six innings of work there. He's held the opposition to a .549 OPS (very good) while posting a 1.97 ERA the L7 starts. Keuchel has always pitched well throughout his career here at Minute Maid Park, so perhaps he's the right man for the job as the team looks to end its shocking seven-game home losing streak. They actually haven't won a game here (just two series) since the All-Star Break! Off three or more consecutive losses, the Astros are 24-9 the L3 seasons. 

Seattle made a pitching change overnight and will turn to Erasmo Ramirez, who has not started a game since April due to injury. He replaces Felix Hernandez, who has seen better days. But it's not like Ramirez is any kind of improvement. The last time we saw him start a game, he allowed six runs total and FIVE home runs! In fact, in two starts in 2018, Ramirez has allowed 11 runs total and 7 HR's. Regardless of what they have pulled off so far this weekend, I remain highly skeptical of Seattle. Meanwhile, the Astros are still one of the top two teams in all of baseball. 6* Houston

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets lost a heartbreaker last night, 4-3, in 11 innings. They had beaten the Marlins the previous night by a score of 6-2. They go for the series win today w/ Noah Syndergaard on the hill. While he's allowed a total of 7 ER in his last two starts, consider that's the most runs he's allowed in any back to back starts all season. He comes in w/ a 2.89 ERA and 1.098 WHIP on the road. To say he's had the Marlins' number would be an understatement as he's 4-0 all-time against them (six starts) w/ a 1.62 ERA. As nightmarish as this season has been for the Mets, they are superior to Miami, who has been outscored by a NL-worst 158 runs. Especially w/ Syndegaard on the hill. Consider the Marlins' YTD run differential is twice as bad as New York's.

Syndergaard will be opposed here by Wei-Yin Chen. Last time out, Chen turned heads by allowing just one hit in 5 2/3 scoreless innings against St. Louis. Miami won the game 2-1. Chen has actually pitched fairly well at home this year, but still carries a 5.48 ERA and 1.433 WHIP overall. Prior to yday, Chen's last start was the only other time the Marlins had won a game this month. This is a team that should have far more losses on the year. According to their run differential, you'd "expect" them to have 77 losses, which is seven more than they actually have. Offensively, the Marlins aren't very prolific at home as they average only 3.5 runs per game. 

It's incredible to think that the Mets were once 11-1 this season. Since then, they've gone 36-65. But Syndergaard has been the one constant w/ a 10-5 TSR for the year. Even though he tied a season-high w/ four runs allowed in his last start, the Mets still were able to get by Cincinnati, 6-4. Before that, he'd allowed 3 ER or less in 13 consecutive starts. He's never had trouble vs. Miami before and I don't expect him to start having them now. The Mets are actually a higher scoring team on the road - significantly so - averaging 4.7 rpg. (They average a MLB-low 3.2 rpg at home). Early line movement confirmed my belief in the Metropolitans here. 8* NY Mets

10* Toronto (1:05 ET): The Blue Jays have just one shot left if they wish to avoid getting swept for a second straight time by division rival Tampa Bay. To do so, they're going to need to start scoring some runs. Rays' pitching has certainly had their number of late, holding them to just two runs total the past four meetings. After a 7-0 shutout in the series opener Friday, things were a lot closer last night in a 3-1 final. But the bottom line is that Toronto is now just 1-7 vs. TB in 2018, including five straight losses. I'll call for them to put an end to that streak on Sunday afternoon, however.

Marcus Stroman will get the baseball, trying to break the streak for the Jays. He has not been at his best here in '18, but Stroman is certainly still a very capable starter. His last start may have seen him exit due to a blister on his middle finger, but he was excellent over seven innings, allowing only a single unearned run and that was against Boston, who is the best offensive team in all of baseball. Stroman gave up only two hits as well. It was his third quality start in the last four outings overall. As tough a time as the Jays have had w/ the Rays this season, they've yet to send Stroman to the hill against them. He can be the great equalizer in this one. 

Tampa Bay turns to Tyler Glasnow has allowed just two runs total for Tampa Bay since coming over in a trade w/ Pittsburgh. But he's gone just seven innings in his two starts as manager Kevin Cash is always creative w/ the use of his 'pen. He also threw 61 pitches his last time out, the most he's thrown in a start since April. Also, his last start was against Baltimore, who is just dreadful. This will be his first time starting on the road as a member of the Rays. It's not like the Rays are a particularly strong road team, so I see Toronto avoiding the sweep on Sunday. 10* Toronto

10* Arizona (10:00 ET): We've got a first year HC for Arizona (Steven Wilks), so that should lead to added motivation for the home side Saturday night in the desert. Meanwhile, as per usual, the Chargers appear cursed. We're not even halfway through August and already three players have been lost for the year to ACL injuries. Two were expected to be key contributors, those being TE Hunter Henry and DB Jason Verrett. I still think Los Angeles can compete for an AFC West Championship in the regular season, but clearly they're going to want to error on the side of caution here in the preseason opener. I'll lay the short number w/ what should be the more motivated side, which is looking to win for its new HC the first time he's in front of the fanbase. 

The Lightning Bolts are just 2-6 SU and ATS in the preseason the last two years. Their only win a year ago came in the "dress rehearsal" game (Week 3) where starters saw extended time. I simply cannot imagine QB Philip Rivers will play much, if at all, in this game. His two backups are Geno Smith and Cardale Jones. Yikes! Neither is inspiring at this time in their respective careers. On the defensive side of the ball, last year HC Anthony Lynn elected to play his starters about a quarter in the first preseason game. Maybe that holds true again Saturday, but it's highly unlikely we'll see Joey Bosa after he didn't practice this week due to a sore foot. The Chargers' special teams, particularly the kicking game, are always an adventure.

For the Cardinals, the big story is going to be rookie QB Josh Rosen. Expect him to play a lot here. Rosen has a chip on his shoulder after not being drafted as high as he thought he should be. Personally, I felt Rosen was the most "NFL ready" signal caller in the Draft. I can see him playing quite well Saturday night even though it's his first professional game. That could make for an interesting 1st major decision for HC Wilks as it's believed Sam Bradford will enter the regular season as the starter. Maybe that's the way it ends up being, but Rosen isn't going to sit back and allow the decision to be an easy one. By all accounts, Rosen is grasping the offense well in practice. The vanilla schemes the Chargers' D is likely to offer him here will not be difficult to take advantage of. 10* Arizona 

8* Over Vikings/Broncos (9:00 ET): Both of these teams are usually associated w/ defense, but we'll leave that discussion for the regular season. Saturday night in the preseason opener, I expect more points to be scored than are expected. The drama here, even if it will be short-lived, resides at the QB position where Case Keenum will face his former team and his "replacement" Kirk Cousins debuts for his. Keenum led the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game LY by playing the best football of his career. Regardless if you think he's capable of repeating that kind of performance, he represents a pretty clear upgrade over what Denver had under center last season. As for Cousins, he'll be expected to give the Vikings AT LEAST a season comparable to Keenum's 2017. 

Now neither signal caller is expected to play much Saturday night. We're looking at pretty much a series or two. But what's interesting here is that the Vikings' backup, Trevor Siemian is a former Bronco. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. Will the QB have the edge on the defense by virtue of knowing the scheme, or vice versa? My guess is the former and it'll be nice for Siemian to face the Denver backups. The same holds true for Chad Kelly and Paxton Lynch w/ Denver. They'll be up against a Minnesota defense that won't even be close to its regular season capability.

The Vikings typically take the preseason fairly seriously under HC Mike Zimmer, who has a 14-3 SU/12-5 ATS record this time of year. That even includes the team failing to cover its final three preseason games last season. Heading into this game, they'll have to play w/ a makeshift offensive line due to injuries. Denver was very good in the preseason last year as well (they had a new coach in Vance Joseph). I suspect offense will be the priority in the Mile Hile City this month as that was the clear weak side of the ball in '17.  There were a lot of high-scoring games Thursday night (by NFLX Wk 1 standards) and I think this one follows suit. 8* Over Vikings/Broncos

10* Over Als/REDBLACKS (8:00 ET): Since returning to the league (in 2015), Ottawa has covered all but one of the 11 matchups w/ division rival Montreal. That includes a win and cover earlier this year, 28-18 as 7.5-pt chalk. With the rematch taking place in Ontario, the line "feels about right." Certainly no one will be a in rush to take the Als, quarterbacked by Johnny Manziel, after they were humiliated last week at home in a 50-11 loss to Hamilton. When all is said and done, that may end up being my easiest bet of the year. I'd love to play against Montreal (easily the worst team in the CFL), but laying this many points in any league is typically something I shy away from. But given the Als allowed 50 pts last week, I have no problem taking the Over as their own offense HAS to improve (how can it be any worse?) while the Redblacks should score at will. 

Ottawa has to be "chomping at the bit" to take the field here after blowing a 24-pt lead in the second half last week against Toronto. They ended up losing 42-41 as 6.5-pt road favorites after giving up the game-winning TD w/ one second left on the clock. Obviously, that has to be eating at them. But what better way to bounce back than by facing the team that is - by far - the worst in the league? Last week was the second time this season that the Redblacks scored 40 or more in a game and they did it in basically three quarters. Defensively, they are obvious issues that need to be corrected after last week's historic collapse. The secondary was not good vs. the Argos, allowing McLeod Bethel-Thompson to complete 25 of 37 pass attempts for 300+ yds and four touchdowns. Maybe there is hope for Manziel in this game? 

With Manziel getting benched after throwing FOUR first half interceptions last week, he can only get better. The Als' offense has yet to top 23 pts in a game this season, but won't have to in order for this one to fly Over the total. That's because their league-worst defense is allowing 34.6 PPG. Last week didn't even mark a season-high in pts allowed as they gave up 56 to Winnipeg in Week 2. Being down 28-0 at the end of the first quarter allowed for Hamilton to take their foot off the gas early and you have to wonder just how many pts the Ti-Cats could have put up had they kept trying. They gave up 473 total yds to Ottawa in the first meeting, which barely stayed Under. Expect more points this go around. 10* Over Als/REDBLACKS

10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): The Dodgers failed in their bid to win a seventh straight time here at Coors Field Friday night, instead losing 5-4. It was a complete "reversal of fortune" from the previous game where Dodger Blue was able to rally against a suspect Colorado bullpen. This time, they were held in check by Rockies' relievers while giving up the go-ahead home run in the seventh inning (led 4-3 going into the frame). However, for all the reasons stipulated the L2 nights, I'll be backing LA again Saturday as they're simply a much better team than Colorado. Having outscored their opponents by a NL-high 98 runs this year, the Dodgers can clain a far better YTD run differential than the Rockies, who have actually been OUTSCORED (-19 run diff) in 2018. 

The Dodgers will enter the day tied w/ Arizona atop the NL West. They're also just a game back of the Wild Card, so this is a really important next two days for the ballclub, especially w/ Colorado still "breathing down their back." Sure, run differential indicates there's a massive gap in the level of play between the two teams, but somehow the Rockies have managed to stick within 2.5 games of the division leaders. Tonight, I envision an easy win for the road team, however. Starter Walker Buehler has a shockingly great WHIP (0.995) on the season, so the team should have a better overall record than 8-5 in his 13 starts. Buehler has given up just three runs total in his L2 starts and has made changes to his cureball, which in turn have led to more strikeouts (15). Buehler has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season. 

The Rockies go w/ Kyle Freeland, who has been able to pitch quite well here at Coors Field this season, despite the inherent disadvantages. He has a 2.18 ERA in 10 home starts (8-2 TSR) and a 1.47 ERA his L3 starts overall. However, I still worry about that Rockies' bullpen (5.22 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) even moreso than the Dodgers' pen w/o Kenley Jansen. One issue to monitor w/ Freeland is control as he's walked three batters in four consecutive starts. The Dodgers' offense should continue to take advantage of the hitter-friendly environment that Coors provides as they already average 5.1 rpg on the road this season. Freeland is working on a 13-inning scoreless streak at home, but I feel that will come to an end rather quickly tonight as the Dodgers send the Rockies to an 8th loss in the last 11 games. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Arizona (6:40 ET): Last night the D'backs were shutout, 3-0, in the series opener here at Great American Ballpark. An interesting tidbit on these two teams is that LAST year they finished at opposite ends of the betting spectrum. Arizona came from nowhere to win 93 games, thus it shouldn't have been a surprise to see them finish third in net units at +14.8. The Reds had one of the worst records in all of baseball, thus they were -14.5 units, which ranked 26th. Cincy hasn't been quite as bad in '18 as they come into today "only" -4.1 units. Meanwhile, the D'backs (w/ a target on their backs) haven't been quite as profitable at just +4.1 units. But they're still the better team here and I'll call for them to bounce back Saturday w/ what I feel is a pretty clear edge in starting pitching. 

It certainly wasn't the pitching that was the problem last night for Arizona. Rather, an offense that is only ninth in the NL runs scored was shutout. It was the fourth time in the last five games they failed to score more than three runs. The team batting average for the season is surprisingly low, but you can expect them to find greater success this evening when facing the struggling Matt Harvey. Harvey initially wasn't too bad for the Reds after being dumped by the Mets earlier this season. But, he's got a 10.66 ERA and 1.815 WHIP in three starts since the All-Star Break. Last time out, he lasted only four innings and gave up five runs. Five of the nine hits he allowed were for extra bases. I don't think Harvey will be getting much run support here considering all of the Reds' runs last night came from either a sacrifice fly or bunt. The sac bunt actually scored two runs, one of them coming on a throwing error. So it's not like Cincy's offense was in top form either Friday. In fact, they're barely averaging over 3.0 rpg the last week.

Pitching has not been an issue for Arizona all season long. Only two teams - Houston and Boston - give up fewer runs per game. Tonight's starter Robbie Ray really enjoys pitching on the road where he's held opponents to a .195 batting average this season. He also has 48 strikeouts and a 2.57 ERA in his seven outings away from home. Somewhat surprisingly, the D'backs have lost each of the L5 times Ray has started, but three of those losses have been by exactly one run. He did have some control issues his last time out (four walks), but overall that has NOT been an issue this season. The D'backs have not dropped B2B games this month and I believe will bounce back in a major way Saturday evening. 8* Arizona 

8* Toronto (4:07 ET): The Blue Jays were embarrassed at home last night, losing 7-0 to the Rays. It was their fourth loss in a row to TB overall as they were swept by their division rival down in Tampa back in June. Rarely do you see a team sweep the same opponent twice in a row though, especially if they're division rivals. In this case, the Rays were playing a lot better back in June than they are now. They're also on the road where their record (25-33) is far worse than at Tropicana Field (34-24). I see the Jays bouncing back in a major way Saturday afternoon and exacting revenge.

It took awhile for the Rays to name their starter for Saturday, but it will be Ryne Stanek. Of course, Stanek isn't your typical MLB starter. He's referred to as an "opener" by manager Kevin Cash as the converted reliever never goes more than two innings before giving way to the bullpen. The experiment hasn't been that successful, however, as the Rays have lost 11 of the 18 times Stanek has "opened" the game. His ERA and WHIP are good, but that'll happen when you only go through the order one time. Last time out, Stanek allowed a pair of runs against lowly Baltimore. The decision to use him in this role today was made late because there was some question as to whether or not he'd be used in relief Friday (he wasn't as the game was quickly out of reach). Speaking of decision making, manager Cash actually pulled last night's starter Blake Snell after five perfect innings. The team also started rookies at all five infield positions! 

As bad as last night went for Toronto, today should be better. I say that knowing full well that starter Sam Gaviglio has struggled over the last couple months. He's winless since late May and has a 7.42 ERA and 2.174 WHIP his L3 starts. But Gaviglio has pitched well this season here at Rogers Centre. His ERA is 2.74 in seven home starts, none of which have resulted in an actual decision for him! The Jays have won four of the seven games though and I feel "tonight's the night" that Gaviglio finally breaks through! 8* Toronto

10* Winnipeg (8:30 ET): Last week, Hamilton made for one of the easiest bets in my life as I cashed them as seven-point road favorites at Montreal. They won 50-11, completely outclassing the Als (led 41-3 at half!) and their embarrassment of a QB, Johnny Manziel. The idea that a QB that had just come to a team (the worst one in the league, no less!) two weeks prior and would be thrust into the starting position was laughable. So, clearly any assignment from here on out will be tougher for the Ti-Cats. This one in particular is going to be a challenge as they have to visit Winnipeg to play a rested Bombers team that's also off a big win. I'll lay the points Friday night.

Winnipeg is off a home and home sweep of Toronto, winning 38-20 on the road, then 40-14 at home. Two of the team's three losses this year have come by just a field goal. Their four wins have come by an average of 30.5 points per game. Obviously that average will start to come down eventually. But, tonight I look for the rested Blue Bombers to come out quite motivated. They're looking to avenge their largest defeat of the season, which came at Hamilton, 31-17 back in Week 3. But that game saw them play w/o the services of QB Matt Nichols, who is now back in the fold. This is going to be a much better team than the one that faced the Ti-Cats last month.

Four first half interceptions of Manziel quickly turned last week's game into a joke for Hamilton. They actually led 28-0 after 15 minutes, which is the largest lead for ANY TEAM IN CFL HISTORY after the 1st quarter! That much-needed win snapped a three-game losing skid, all of which came as favorites. Tonight marks the first time since Week 2 that the Ti-Cats will be underdogs. While that might make it seem like there's some value, I think it also speaks to the respect commanded by the Bombers when at full strength. Only unbeaten Calgary has outscored its opposition by a wider margin so far this season. With a rested home team looking for revenge, Hamilton is going to find things much more difficult Friday night. 10* Winnipeg

10* LA Dodgers (8:40 ET): Not to "toot my own horn," but I said the Dodgers would come to Coors Field this weekend and take charge, and that they did last night. They took the series opener from the Rockies, 8-5, and while it was not as easy as it seemed, they still got the job done. Seven of those runs were scored over the final three frames w/ the deciding three coming in the top half of the ninth. But Dodger Blue was perhaps "due" for that kind of result. They might only be up 3.5 games on Colorado in the NL West, but there's a massive lead in run differential (+99 vs. -20) that says that gap in the standings should probably be a lot larger. It will be after this weekend and I'm on the Dodgers again Friday night. 

The irony of Los Angeles coming back to win in the late innings last night is that they were the ones w/o their regular closer. Kenley Jansen has been sent home due to an irregular heartbeat and will likely miss an entire month of action because of it. Jansen is tied for the NL lead w/ 32 saves. But Scott Alexander was able to close things out last night in his place. This isn't the first time Jansen has missed time due to this issue, so I think the team can overcome it. Playing in Coors Field certainly helps the offense as they already average 5.1 rpg away from home and there isn't a more "hitter-friendly" environment than this one. As for Colorado's bullpen, last night was just a continuation of a season-long issue. This group sports a 5.22 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the season. Both of those numbers rank right near the very bottom of the league (29th and 26th, respectively). 

Tonight's starting pitching matchup would appear to be heavily in favor of the Rockies. But sometimes "looks can be deceiving." Though the Dodgers' Kenta Maeda has struggled recently, he still has solid numbers over the course of the entire season, especially against Colorado. In two previous starts, he's held them to a .149 average. He'll be opposed by Jon Gray, who does have a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts, the last four of which have come after being sent down to Triple-A Albuquerque. I think it's right to question the success of a pitcher who had to be sent down to the minors to work on his "mechanics" at the midway point of the season. Now there's no denying that he has pitched well recently. But how long will that last? Maeda has the superior numbers over the course of the full season and I believe is still the better pitcher here. The Dodgers have won six straight here at Coors Field. Make it seven in a row after tonight. 10* LA Dodgers

10* NY Jets (7:30 ET): The Jets aren't expected to be very good this year. Quite frankly, no one - save for the Patriots obviously - is going to be very good in that division (AFC East) in 2018. But that won't matter here in the preseason where it will be more about backups and position battles as opposed to the overall level of talent on the teams. The Flyboys open their preseason at home tonight against the Falcons, a team that typically doesn't take the preseason very seriously. Two years removed from the Super Bowl, Atlanta should be formidable in the regular season. They know who their "horses" are, but that works to their disadvantage here. Lay the points. 

I am a little surprised that the Falcons are expected to play some of their regulars for as much as a full quarter tonight. This is includes QB Matt Ryan. But it won't include WR Julio Jones. On the other side of the ball, the first string defense is not expected to see extended playing time. It may just be the first set of downs. Even if Atlanta was to get off to a nice start w/ Ryan under center tonight, don't expect them to hold the lead or do much after he exits. Last year saw the Falcons go 0-4 SU in the preseason, scoring 14 pts or less in three of the games. The key here is going to be a motivated Jets side taking control in the second half. 

Unlike Atlanta, NY doesn't know who its starting QB will be in Week 1 of the regular season. They have rookie Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater and veteran Josh McCown as their options. Of the three, Bridgewater (coming off major injury) is the one LEAST likely to earn the job. But all three will see time Friday and they'll each want to show the coaching staff what they can bring to the table. The rookie Darnold is the most intriguing player to watch here. HC Todd Bowles enters this season firmly on "the hot seat" and would probably like nothing more than to start the year out w/ a victory. Look for the Jets to "play to the end" and cover the spread here. 10* NY Jets

8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. It's also a revenge spot for Canada's lone pro baseball franchise. Back in June, they were swept down in Tampa Bay at a time where the Rays were about to go on a run. The Rays would actually drop the next three games (to the Yankees), but then would go onto win 16 of the next 22 games. The streak hardly mattered though; they're only barely above .500 right now and the front office elected to be "sellers" at the trade deadline, rather than double down on a possible playoff push. Toronto is 5.5 games back of TB in the AL East and though they're the inferior team on paper, I'm willing to say they do no worse than a one-run defeat here at home.

A big key for the Blue Jays this weekend is getting the Rays "north of the border." Granted, the Jays aren't a dominant home team by any means (just 28-30). But it's that the Rays are significantly worse on the road. Their record away from home is just 24-33 while it's 34-24 at Tropicana Field. But the recently completed homestand hardly went well for the Rays as they ended up dropping four of the last six games and those came against the Orioles and White Sox, two of the very worst teams in all of baseball. You don't see Tampa Bay favored on the money line away from home that much. It works to our advantage here by opening up the chance to play the run line. Sweeping the same opponent twice in a row is hard to do, especially if it's a division rival. 

This series will be a drop in class for Toronto as they just got done hosting Boston. They won just one of the three games, that lone win coming last night. Offensively, the team has averaged 6.0 rpg over the last week while batting a collective .303. They'll send Marco Estrada to the hill tonight and he's fresh off allowing just one run over seven innings in his last start (a 5-1 win over Seattle as a +215 ML underdog!). Blake Snell starts here for the Rays and while he's had a fine 2018 season, he's not the same pitcher on the road (mirroring the play of the team as a whole). While Snell is 6-1 w/ a 0.97 ERA in nine home starts, he's just 6-4 w/ a 3.34 ERA. His WHIP over the L3 starts is 1.535 as there have been control issues (eight walks). He'd spent some time on the DL prior to his last outing, which saw him last just four innings. There may be a "quick hook" if he struggles again tonight. Note that the Rays' last six games have all been decided by exactly one run. Either way, that's a result we'll take this evening. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): I don't know how long either of these clubs will remain relevant in the NL playoff hunt, but my view is neither are likely to be playing in October. Not if the YTD run differentials each are currently sporting, persist. The Pirates, thanks to that rather random 11-game win streak that bookended the All-Star Break, are only five back in the Wild Card chase. But take that win streak away and you have a clearly below average team, one that's been outscored over the balance of the year and would be eight games below .500. The Giants have a -32 run differential despite being just a game under the Mendoza line, but what they also have here is a clear edge in that they were off yesterday while Pittsburgh was in Colorado. I'm taking San Francisco tonight as they also happen to be a very strong home team.

The Giants are 32-24 at home this season, which is alot better than their 25-34 road record. The win percentage at home was even stronger before they ran into the mighty Astros earlier this week as they dropped both games in that series. I suspect the offense will be much stronger this weekend against Pirates' pitching than they were vs. Houston. Tonight, they'll go up against Ivan Nova, who has a 1.723 WHIP his L3 starts. Nova has given up four runs in B2B starts while lasting only nine innings. He also has more walks (6) than strikeouts (4) during that time. The team actually won his final four starts in July before dropping his last start (8-4) to St. Louis last weekend. Nova was also the one Bucs' starter that lost in the only prior series w/ the Giants this year. 

Tonight's starter for SF, Andrew Suarez, also took a "L" in that prior series, which took place all the way back in May. Overall, the Pirates wound up winning two of the three games. But that was in PNC Park. I already mentioned how the Giants are better at home this year and that's certainly the case w/ Suarez, who has a 3.64 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in nine starts at AT&T Park. His ERA is basically two full points lower at home than it is on the road. Suarez was roughed up badly in his last start, but that came on the road at Arizona. He won his last home start (7.29 vs. Milwaukee) despite not even having his best stuff. As a road underdog of +125 to +175, the Pirates are only 4-14 this year. I still believe we're due to see them "give some more back" after the random win streak I spoke of earlier. 8* San Francisco

8* Indianapolis (10:00 ET): The big story for this game is that Colts QB Andrew Luck is expected to play, perhaps for as long as a full quarter. That's obviously pretty rare - for a starter of his caliber - to play so long in the first preseason game. But this is a special circumstance. Luck has not played in a NFL game in 20 months. His amount of throwing has gradually increased as training camp has progressed. Without question, Luck's shoulder is the biggest key to the Colts' 2018 season. 

Indianapolis will be looking to bounce back from a horrific season where they went 4-12 SU and were outscored by 141 pts, the third worst differential in the entire luck. Presuming Luck is back in the fold, an increase in the number of wins is all but assured in '18. But the rest of the roster is full w/ holes and question marks. It also simply isn't that talent-rich. But what we'll be getting Thursday night is a lot of position battles (and thus a high level of effort) for a new coaching staff, led by Frank Reich. Another reason you can probably expect the Colts to win more games this year - they blew a NFL-high seven 2nd half leads. That's actually the third most in one year by any team since the AFL-NFL merger. It's also highly unlikely to be repeated. 

Meanwhile, it's a very different Seahawks team in 2018 than what we're used to seeing. The Legion of Boom was disassembled (only Earl Thomas remains) and this is now very much QB Russell Wilson's team. Problem is, like Luck, he's no longer surrounded by a lot of talent. Here, WR Doug Baldwin won't play due to a knee injury. Another veteran wideout, Brandon Marshall, may not play either. The offensive line, long the weak spot of this team, is learning a new scheme. On the other side of the ball, the secondary has to break in three new starters and the front seven is already down two starters. For years, Seattle has been great in the preseason, under HC Pete Carroll. They went 4-0 SU/ATS last year. But this is a much different team, one where the odds are shorter that they WON'T make the playoffs than they will. 8* Indianapolis.

10* LA Dodgers (8:40 ET): Both of these teams lost by one run on Wednesday w/ the Rockies dropping a game at home to Pittsburgh (4-3) while the Dodgers lost out in Oakland (3-2). The NL West race very much remains a four-team affair (all separated by just 6.5 games), but in my estimation there's a clear "line of demarcation" between the Dodgers/D'backs & the Rockies/Giants. The latter twosome have both been outscored over the course of the year and thus should consider themselves rather fortunate to even be in playoff contention at all. I think this series will do a lot to remedy the misleading gap between the Dodgers and Rockies (currently just 2.5 gms) as the former is clearly the better team in my eyes. Look for them to open the series w/ a big win.

Los Angeles couldn't score enough for Clayton Kershaw last night, but there was no shortage of offense the last time they came calling to Coors Field. They scored 33 runs in a three-game sweep of the Rockies here, back in June, and could be poised for a similar series at the plate this weekend. They come in averaging 5.1 rpg on the road already. Tonight, they face Tyler Anderson, who has given up a total of 11 runs his L2 starts, including seven in the last one. In that previous series here in Denver, the Dodgers got to Anderson for five runs in five innings. The Rockies have lost each of the last three times Anderson has started and he's given up five home runs during that stretch. Three of those came in the bad effort vs. Milwaukee last week. 

The worst part of Colorado dropping two of three at home to Pittsburgh to start to the week is that they failed to take advantage of their own park offensively. They scored just seven runs over the three games and came into yday batting a collective .210 over the last week. Those kind of numbers make it an ideal spot to return for LA starter Ross Stripling, who is coming off the 10-day DL here. Stripling was an All-Star, but his appearance at the midsummer classic seemed to derail him as not only did he serve up two home runs in that game, he's given up four more in his previous two starts. Overall, he's allowed nine runs in 8 2/3 IP over the pair. But I'll still bank on Stripling and his superior team here. Stripling has better numbers than Anderson and I like the fact LA is off a loss here as losing streaks aren't something we've seen from them very much over a dominant two-month stretch. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Houston (8:10 ET): This is a matchup that is particularly attractive to me due to the concept of actual vs. expected wins. Based on their YTD run differential, every team has a win expectancy. That number can be quite instructive in evaluating a ballclub as to whether or not they "should" have won more or less games. Well, no team in MLB "should" have more wins (according to run diff) than the 73-42 Astros, if you can believe it. Yes, their WL record is already very good. But based on their MLB-leading +202 run differential, they've actually played to the level of an 81-win team! On the flip side, there's tonight's opponent, Seattle. The Mariners are 65-50 for the year, but have been outscored by 29 runs. That's a win expectancy of just 54. So while these two AL West rival may only be separated by eight games in the standings currently, run differential indicates that the "true" gap is more like 27 games and that this is really a complete mismatch. 

Compounding matters for the Mariners is the fact they've really started to hit the skids of late. Yesterday's 11-7 loss at Texas marked their seventh loss in the last nine games. It was the second game in a row they allowed 11 runs. At the same time, the offense has topped four runs just one time in this 2-7 stretch. One has to wonder where Seattle would be if not for its extremely fortunate 28-14 record in one-run games this year, not to mention going 9-1 in extra innings. I've been harping on those records all year long, citing them an "unsustainable" and proof that the M's simply were never as good as their overall record. Another key disadvantage coming into Thursday's opener is that Houston had yday off. 

James Paxton would likely be the 1st choice for manager Scott Servais to hand the ball to tonight. Paxton has a 3.44 ERA and 1.057 WHIP this season (22 starts) and is 3-0 vs. the Astros. Problem is though that he's being opposed by Justin Verlander, who has been even better. Verlander comes in sporting a 2.19 ERA and 0.876 WHIP in 24 starts, making a 14-10 TSR seem somewhat "criminal." Somehow Seattle has been able to avoid him this year ... until now. But in 24 career starts against the M's, Verlander has a 3.01 ERA. He also comes into this game in dominant form as his KW ratio over the L4 starts is 44-4. He held the Dodgers to just one run (a solo HR) over 7 2/3 innings his last time out & finished w/ a season-best 14 strikeouts. I realize Houston's everyday lineup has some key injuries right now, but the day of rest is a big edge as is playing at home this weekend. They are already 6-3 head to head vs. Seattle this season and should improve upon that record this weekend, starting tonight. 8* Houston