8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): The Cavs lost a tough one last night as they blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead in Washington and fell 119-110. It was a game they shot 51.3% from the field, despite not having leading scorer Collin Sexton. As an added “kick in the teeth,” they ended up not even covering the 7.5-point spread. While Sexton remains questionable for tonight (concussion) and it’s the second night of a back to back, the number looks generous here for a Cleveland team that probably feels “it should have” won on Sunday. Toronto, while better than its record, probably shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody. 

Remember (that because of COVID-19) there’s no home court advantage for the Raptors this season. All “home games” have been played in Florida and this displacement has led to a 15-15 SU “home” record. Ironically, they’ve been significantly worse in "true" road games (10-20 SU), but the bottom line is that all this travel has put the team at a severe disadvantage this season. The Raptors do have a better YTD point differential than all of the teams they are chasing for a spot in the “play-in” round, but they’ve lost outright the last three times they’ve been favored by 6.5 or more points. One of those losses was to this Cleveland team.  

They also lost on Saturday, 120-103 at New York. In that one, the Raptors allowed 56% shooting, including 51.3% from three-point range. So there’s definitely hope for Cleveland here. Toronto is just 4-8 straight up and 3-9 against the spread following a double digit loss. In addition to losing to the Cavs last month, they've also been beaten by the Thunder and Rockets in the L30 days. Not saying the Cavs will win outright, but you definitely want to take the points here. 8* Cleveland

7* Atlanta (7:10 ET): This is the second series of the season between these teams. The first saw the Braves take two of three at Wrigley Field as they won the series opener 5-2 before an exchange of 13-4 wins. Immediately following that series, the Cubs swept the Mets and then beat Milwaukee 15-2 in a series opener. At that point, the Cubbies had not only won four in a row at home, but also had scored 13+ runs in three of their last seven games overall. But they’ve lost each of the last two days (both to the Brewers at home) and were shut out 9-0 on Sunday. 

Atlanta also had a rough Sunday. They were shut out twice, losing 5-0 and 7-0 in a doubleheader vs. Arizona. Even worse is that they could only manage one hit in the two games! Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner won’t get credit for a no-hitter, as it was only a seven inning game, but a no-hitter very much happened to the Braves in Game 2 Sunday. They’d only been shutout one other time this season (prior to yday) and had won two of three since that last series with the Cubs. Let’s just chalk Sunday up as “one of those days.”

Facing Zach Davies, the Braves hitters should have a big bounce back game here. Davies, the Cubs’ starter for Monday, has an 8.80 ERA and 2.086 WHIP in four starts. The lone time he’s started on the road, Davies was charged with seven runs in 1 ⅔ IP. He also allowed four runs in four innings when he faced Atlanta. The Braves will counter with Charlie Morton today. He’s had two strong starts recently where he went six innings and allowed just one run. The last one was against the Yankees and Morton allowed only three hits. The Cubs are averaging only 2.2 runs per game and hitting a collective .197 on the road. 7* Atlanta

10* San Antonio (7:05 ET): The Wizards extended their win streak to eight games with a 119-110 victory over Cleveland last night. But even though they were facing a weak opponent, it was by no means “an easy win.” The Cavs led much of the game and shot 51.3% from the floor despite not having their leading scorer Collin Sexton. Washington was down eight early in the fourth quarter when Bradley Beal (NBA’s 2nd leading scorer) took over. Obviously, “a win’s a win,” but it should be pointed out that even with an eight-game win streak, the Wizards are only 10th in the Eastern Conference and still six games below .500 on the year.

San Antonio is also fighting for its playoff life right now. Like the Wizards, they currently occupy the last remaining slot in the “play-in round” for their conference. Winning four of five has definitely helped their cause as did Golden State losing last night. It was a key win on Sunday when the Spurs won in New Orleans, 110-108 as three-point underdogs. So they too are a “hot team” right now. The win over the Pelicans also improved them to 17-10 SU and 19-8 ATS on the road this season. They've won their last three on the road, one of those coming at Phoenix. 

Washington is at a disadvantage here being in the second night of a back to back. While he’s apparently fine, Beal did have a scary moment last night when he limped off the court in the final minute. The team was concerned that it might have been an Achilles injury, but that is not the case. Still, it's something worth monitoring. While the Wizards have been very successful the last two weeks, most of the wins have come against bad teams and they remain pretty horrible at the defensive end (28th in PPG allowed). I think the win streak ends here as San Antonio beat them handily (121-101) back in January. 10* San Antonio

10* Detroit (1:10 ET): The Tigers have lost 9 of 10 and especially worrisome is the fact they’ve been held to two runs or less in each of the last eight losses. They were shut out again on Sunday, 4-0, which was their third straight loss to the Royals. But that puts Detroit in the exact same situation I found Cleveland in yesterday - trying to avoid the ignominy of being a home team swept in a four-game series. I took the Indians and they won 7-3 over the Yankees Sunday. That’s what I’m hoping for from the Tigers today. 

Helping the home team’s cause here is the fact they have Spencer Turnbull starting. His only previous start, on 4/21, happens to be the Tigers’ only win in the last nine games. Turnbull went five innings and allowed just one run on two hits against Pittsburgh. It’ll be a tougher test this time, but I should mention the fact that going into yesterday,  the Kansas City lineup was averaging only 2.8 runs per game with a .177 batting average on the road. They haven’t exactly been hitting the cover off the ball in this series either. 

If there was ever a time for the Tigers’ offense to wake up, it would be facing the kind of starter they’ll see today. Brad Keller will go here for KC and he brings in a 12.00 ERA/2.583 WHIP from his first four outings. Last time out marked the second time that Keller failed to escape the second inning and gave up 5+ runs. Somehow he has a 2-2 team start record, but that’s in no way indicative of how he’s pitched so far. He retired just five of the 13 batters he faced last Tuesday. Look for the Tigers to avoid the sweep. 10* Detroit.

10* LA Dodgers (7:08 ET): This is an absurdly low price on the Dodgers at home. I know they’ve struggled a bit lately, losing four of six including two of three to the Padres in this series. But they won yesterday, 5-4, thereby avoiding what would have been their first three-game losing streak of the season. This series is the first of the year that the Dodgers have lost two games. They still own the best record in all of MLB (15-6) as well as the top run differential (+33). I won’t hesitate to lay this short price with them on “Sunday Night Baseball.” 

I suppose the Padres must be respected, especially with Joe Musgrove on the mound. Musgrove has a 1.04 ERA and 0.538 WHIP through four starts, including the first no-hitter in Padres history back on April 9th. He’s allowed just three in 26 innings so far, however this will be the first time Musgrove has seen the Dodgers, whose offense will be looking to break out after collecting 12 hits on Saturday. In three career starts vs. LA, Musgrove is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA. 

The Dodgers counter with Dustin May, who has a 2.94 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in his three starts this season. May’s last start was his worst to date, but it came on the road in an unfamiliar setting (Seattle). The Dodgers are 90-35 at Chavez Ravine the L3 seasons, including 7-2 this year. Opposing teams are averaging only 2.8 runs per game here this season and San Diego has been held to three runs or fewer in five of the last eight games. They don’t have more than eight hits in any of those eight games. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Under Grizzlies/Blazers (4:05 ET): Going back to last season’s “bubble,” the Grizzlies and Blazers have met three times and all three have gone Over the total. This season’s first meeting just took place on Friday and the teams combined for 258 points (130-128 Memphis win) after combining for 248 and 275 (OT) in LY’s bubble. But with a quick turnaround breeding a sense of familiarity here, I look for a much lower-scoring game on Sunday and will take the Under. A lot is on the line here. 

Portland has lost its grip on sixth place in the West, which is critical because the way things stand now, they’d have to deal with the “play-in” scenario. I fully expected the Mavs to pass them and now the question is will the Grizzlies do the same? Friday’s win pulled the Grizz within 1.5 games of the Blazers and they’ve got the better YTD point differential and net efficiency rating, indicative that a passing may take place. While Portland’s last three losses have been a total of four points, they’ve also taken a high number of blowouts this season.

These teams definitely appear to be trending in different directions as the Blazers have lost four in a row overall and the Grizzlies are 16-4 ATS their L20 games. But winning twice in three days at Portland will be hard. Memphis shot 53% Friday, shooting I don’t think they’ll be able to match here. Nor do I think Portland is going to shoot 40% from 3-point range again. The Blazers are 4-1 Under this season after allowing 130+ points the previous game. Memphis leads the NBA in 2-point field goals attempted AND made per game, so they’re not a 3-pt shooting team. Don’t expect them to match Friday’s 29 fast break points either. 10* Under Grizzlies/Blazers

8* Run Line Cleveland (1:10 ET): As it turns out, the “demise” of the Yankees happened to be greatly exaggerated. The Bronx Bombers have come to Cleveland this weekend and taken the first three games of a four-game set. Each game has gotten progressively closer though (and lower scoring) with the Yanks winning by scores of 6-3, 5-3 and finally 2-1 yesterday. Now it’s the Indians with some “egg on their face” as they look to avoid the embarrassment of being swept in a four-game series at home. I think the Tribe is likely to avoid the embarrassment, but just to be safe will take them +1.5 on the run line here. 

All the Yankees ended up needing yesterday was a pair of solo home runs in the 5th from Rougned Odor and Aaron Hicks as Gerrit Cole outdueled Shane Bieber in a battle of aces. The starting pitching matchup for Sunday isn’t nearly as high profile, but Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie is one to keep an eye on as he has 13 strikeouts in nine innings. Unfortunately, both of his starts thus far have been team losses. But both were one-run games. Over the L2 days, every run scored by the Yankees has come via the home run ball. That would seem to be an unsustainable model of offensive production. 

Jameson Taillon toes the rubber for New York here as they go for their first four-game sweep in Cleveland in a quarter century. Taillon has a 5.40 ERA through three starts and was tagged for five runs in 3 ⅔ IP his lone outing on the road thus far. He shouldn’t expect much support here as the Yankees offense is averaging just 3.6 runs per game while batting below .210. They are 2-7 in day games this season. I don’t think the home team does any worse than a one-run loss in this situation. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

10* Barcelona (10:15 AM ET): In stark contrast to the other three major European football leagues, the top four has long been decided in La Liga. We know who is getting the Champions League spots, however the precise order of finish is very much “up in the air” between Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Sevilla. Just six points separate the four sides. First place Atletico got off to such a red hot start and has largely overachieved most of the way. But with them cooling off a bit recently and second place Real Madrid playing to a draw (w/ Real Betis) on Saturday, the door is still open for Barcelona, who has the best goal differential (+43) and expected point total in the league. 

I really like Barca to handle its business on Sunday as they face seventh place Villarreal. Now I very much respect what Villarreal is capable of, and normally would NOT be looking to fade them here. However, they have the Europa League semi-final vs. Arsenal this Thursday. Normally, I’d look at the fact they are just one point out of fifth in the La Liga table and say they have similar motivation to Barca. But if the Yellow Submarine can win the Europa League, then finishing fifth is no longer a concern. They just lost Wednesday, 2-1 to Alaves, which was the second loss in the last three fixtures. 

Barcelona buried Getafe 5-2 on Wednesday. They have, by far, scored the most goals in all of La Liga this season with 74 (Atletico is 2nd with 59). It was a 4-0 win over Villareal in the reverse fixture back in September. Their form is every bit as good now as they’ve won five of their last six here in the Spanish top flight and scored four or more goals in four of those five victories. I will not be surprised if Barca ends up finishing first in the table this year. 10* Barcelona

7* Juventus (9:00 AM ET): It would appear as if Juve’s nine year run atop Serie A is going to end this season. They are currently 11 points back of first place Inter Milan entering Sunday and barely hanging on to a Champions League spot. Behind Inter, only three points separate second from fifth in the Serie A table and right now Juve finds itself tied with Atalanta for third (65 points). However, surging Napoli (who I just won w/ Thursday) is lurking, only two points behind. Of course, there’s been just as much drama “off the pitch” with the catastrophic Super League failure that Juve was a part of. But with that behind them (for the time being), they can now go and focus on finishing in the top four. 

The irony of this being the season Juventus fails to finish in first is that their expected point total happens to the best in all of Serie A. That particular metric says they, Inter and Atalanta are the clear class of this league, which I won’t disagree with. Juve looked rather impressive in its most recent fixture, a 3-1 win over bottom side Parma. It was their third win in their last four matches, the lone loss being a critical one, where I did successfully fade them against Atalanta. 

Fiorentina is also coming off a win midweek as they downed Hellas Verona by a score of 2-1. However, they’d previously dropped three of four and are still just five points clear of the relegation zone. Fiorentina, who has won just two of its last 10 league games, owned just ⅓ of the possession time against Verona on Tuesday. This is a big time revenge spot for Juve, who was shocked 3-0 in the reverse fixture back in December. Not only has Fiorentina failed to win B2B matches at any point in 2020-21, they haven’t pulled a double over Juve since 1968-69. Juve is the much better side and needs the full three badly. 7* Juventus

analysis soon

8* Philadelphia (8:10 ET): The Phillies let one slip away Friday night as they lost the series opener 5-4 here at Coors Field. They allowed the Rockies to score a run in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings to complete the comeback, with the difference being Raimel Tapia’s walk off HR. While certainly a disappointing result for a team that’s now dropped 7 of 10, Philadelphia looks to have a significant advantage in tonight’s starting pitching matchup with Aaron Nola on the bump. I’ll call for them to bounce back Saturday. 

Nola comes in sporting a 2.19 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in four starts. The Phillies are 3-1 with him on the mound. He’s off his best start to date, which was a complete-game shutout of the Cardinals on Sunday where he allowed just two hits and had a 10-0 KW rate. Nola has allowed 3 ER or less in all four of his starts and going back to last year, has done the same in 12 of his previous 15 trips to the mound. Coors Field isn’t the easiest place to pitch, but I believe Nola will handle himself just fine here. The Rockies lineup has the lowest OBP (.277) in the entire National League entering Saturday. 

Now Colorado is 7-6 at home thus far (as opposed to 0-6 on the road) and we all know their offensive production jumps here at Coors. But the problem is that the opposition also typically gets the same boost. That’s what I think will happen with the Philly hitters tonight facing Antonio Senzatela, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his four starts thus far. Now Senzatela has had two quality outings here at home. But he also got roughed up twice by the Dodgers, allowing 12 runs in just six innings. The Phillies may not be the Dodgers, but they’ll get to Senzatela nonetheless and earn a measure of revenge for last night’s tough loss. 8* Philadelphia

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): I can’t overstate what an important game this is for the Pelicans as they come in trailing the Spurs by 3.5 games for the final spot in the “play-in” tournament. Coming off a 35-point in Orlando (which snapped a four-game losing streak), New Orleans definitely has some confidence entering Saturday. A win tonight would at least give them the tiebreaker over the Spurs as they’d take the season series. The previous two meetings saw each team win by three at home. 

The Pelicans led by as many as 42 points Thursday night en route to their largest margin of victory this season. Now you can’t play the Magic every night, but San Antonio is a slightly below average team in my eyes. Despite resting several players, the Spurs did win themselves on Thursday (106-91), but that was against a Detroit team that has an even worse record than Orlando. Leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is still listed as questionable for this one and a short-handed Spurs lineup isn’t likely to be as successful tonight. 

I view these teams as close to even, so the 3.5 game gap in the standings is misleading. New Orleans is at home, so they deserve to be favored and I’ve got no hesitation laying the short number. They’ll have the best player on the floor (Zion Williamson). San Antonio is just 1-7 ATS off its last eight double digit wins. We saw them lose by 20 at home to Miami the last time in this situation. The Spurs’ record is actually better on the road than at home, but I’m unsold. 10* New Orleans

7* Danaa Batgerel (7:35 ET): This fight is also part of the “early prelims” and will conclude that particular two-hour telecast on ESPN2. It’s scheduled for three rounds in the men’s bantamweight division (135 lbs). Batgerel is 8-2 in his career and has yet to be stopped. He’ll take on Kevin Natividad, who is 9-2 in his career, including a loss by KO in his UFC debut last October. This will be Batgerel’s third time fighting in the UFC (1-1 previously). 

Like Natividad, Batgerel lost his UFC debut. The loss was by decision to Heili Alateng in August of 2019. But he quickly bounced back in March of 2020 with a first round knockout of Guido Cannetti. Batgerel is an exciting fighter, one who will constantly press the action. His opponent here will be more than willing to stand and exchange. I think that kind of fight favors Batgerel.

To that point, it was an uppercut that stopped Natividad in the third round of his UFC debut. It was the second time in his career he was knocked out, which is not a good sign, and his willingness to stand and trade here will be his undoing. 7* Danaa Batgerel

analysis soon

10* Brighton & Hove Albion (3:00 ET): In terms of expected points vs. reality, Brighton & Hove Albion has to be considered the unluckiest team in all of the Premier League this season. The reality is that they currently sit 16th in the table, only seven points clear of relegation. That’s a really tough lot for a club whose “expected” point total is 52.97, which is actually FIFTH best in the whole EPL and nearly 19 points higher than their actual total. Not to mention their YTD goal differential (-5) is better than the four teams directly ahead of them in the table. But getting to face an already relegated side this week, it should be an easy three points for Brighton as they inch closer to safety. 

Last week’s 1-0 loss to Wolverhampton (which I called) assured last place Sheffield United a fate we all knew was coming -- relegation. In terms of number of matches played, it equaled the fastest relegation for any side in Premier League history. At one point, it looked as if they might set a new EPL record for fewest points in a season. They avoided that, but not relegation as last week’s loss was their fifth in a row and 26th this campaign (eight more than the next worst team). United has scored only 17 goals all season (in 32 matches) and has now been kept clean a shocking 18 different times, including last week. 

Coming off back to back goalless draws, Brighton clearly knows what it’s like to not score as well. But they should break out here against the second worst defensive side in the entire EPL. United has kept only two clean sheets all season. Brighton has actually kept three clean sheets in their previous four fixtures. The two straight 0-0 draws aren’t all bad as they came against a pair of top eight sides (Chelsea & Everton). This should be among the easiest three points of the season for Brighton as Sheffield has no motivation left after being assured of relegation. 10* Brighton & Hove Albion

10* Over Wizards/Thunder (8:05 ET): Washington has gotten hot at the right time as they’ve won six in a row to move into 10th place in the Eastern Conference. If they can hold onto that spot (or move up further), then they are in the play-in round for the playoffs. It’s the second longest active win streak in the NBA right now (Knicks) and what’s been curious is that it’s been somewhat fueled by the team’s play at the defensive end of the floor. The Wizards have given up only 109.4 PPG over the L5 games.

All five of those games stayed Under and we had the Under in the last one, a 118-114 win over Golden State. Now obviously a final score such as that is going to go Over most totals. But I saw a really high number there and took advantage. What’s interesting is that three of the five straight Unders would have gone Over tonight’s total as the Wiz are in OKC to face Russell Westbrook’s former team, the struggling Thunder, who have lost 12 in a row and are at the bottom of my own personal power rankings. 

Washington has averaged 120.5 PPG during its win streak and I see no reason why they shouldn’t again be hovering around that number tonight. They are probably likely to eclipse it as the Thunder have allowed an average of 122.0 PPG their last five contests. These teams just met Monday in D.C. with the Wizards winning 119-107. The rematch should be higher scoring based on the fact that OKC was just 23 of 50 on two-point attempts in that game and I’m not a believer in Washington sustaining its recent defensive “surge.” They are still giving up 118.0 PPG for the season, which is third most in the league. 10* Over Wizards/Thunder

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): I like the Braves quite a bit here as they should benefit from an off-day. They went 3-2 on the recently completed road trip, taking two of three from the Cubs and then splitting with the Yankees. Now it's a matter of getting things going at home where they are only 3-4 this season. But they are 75-48 at Truist Park since the start of the 2019 season, so I wouldn’t be worried about the slow start. In fact, their lineup is producing a full 6.0 runs per game here at home.

Arizona not only played yesterday, but had to go to extra innings to defeat Cincinnati in a wild 14-11 game. That gave the D’backs a three-game sweep over a team that had previously been red hot and they’ve won four in a row overall. But I say the win streak stops tonight as I do not have a ton of faith in this ballclub, despite its 5-0 record as a road underdog of +125 to +175. They are still below .500 and have to be getting a little road weary as 14 of their first 19 games have come away from home. This will be the eighth straight road game. 

Atlanta starter Huascar Ynoa does not have a win yet, but he looked very good in his lone home start. Facing Miami, he gave up just one run on three hits (in 6 IP) and had 10 strikeouts. He’s demonstrated good control thus far and you should disregard his last outing as it was windy at Wrigley Field. Arizona’s Luke Weaver may have better overall numbers than Ynoa, but on the road he has a 6.51 ERA and 1.241 WHIP. He allowed four runs in four innings (at Washington) his last time out. If Ronald Acuna Jr makes his return to the Braves lineup tonight, that would sweeten the pot even more. 10* Atlanta

8* Run Line Toronto (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. In this AL East matchup, we’ve got a pair of starting pitchers off to hot starts. Runs are likely to be at a premium in tonight’s series opener, thus the RL seems like a logical way to go. I do not see Toronto losing this game by more than a single run. They are coming off a 6-3 win in Boston on Wednesday and the pitching staff has not permitted more than four runs in any of the last five contests. 

Steven Matz will be starting for the fourth time this year for the Jays. He’s gone 3-0 so far with a 1.47 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. In each start, he’s gone six innings and allowed just one run. He’s allowed only nine hits and one home run. The Toronto brass has to be thrilled with what they’ve gotten so far from Matz, who was acquired in the offseason in exchange for a trio of minor league players. The team has outscored the opposition 26-4 in the three Matz starts. 

Tampa Bay counters with Tyler Glasnow, who is off to a really hot start himself. He’s 2-0 in four starts (3-1 TSR) with a 0.73 ERA and 0.649 WHIP. Glasnow has allowed 1 ER or less in every start so far and had an outing with 14 strikeouts. The Rays are coming off a 5-1 road trip against the Yankees and Royals. The only loss came in their last game. But I see their offensive “cooling down” dramatically tonight and Toronto looks to have a big edge once this game gets to the bullpens. The Rays have lost four of five as ML favorites. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* San Francisco (9:45 ET): I won with Miami yesterday afternoon as they blanked the Orioles 3-0. I said “I don’t think it’ll take many runs to win” and that turned out to be correct as starter Trevor Rogers was even better than I expected. He went a career high seven innings, struck out eight and didn’t allow a single runner to get past second base. But going from facing lowly Baltimore at home to San Francisco on the road is a step up in class for the Marlins this weekend and they’re obviously NOT going to have Rogers on the mound tonight.

The Giants lost yesterday as they failed to finish what could have been a three-game sweep in Philadelphia. They’d won the first two games of that series in very different fashion, 2-0 and 10-7, before going down 6-5. After falling behind early, 3-0, the Giants rallied for four runs in the top of the seventh to take the lead. But they allowed the Phillies to tie the game in the bottom half of that inning, then win on a Andrew Knapp single in the bottom of the ninth.

While off a 3-3 trip and 6-6 overall on the road this year, the Giants now return home where they are 5-1 including 3-0 as a favorite of -125 to -175. They’ve allowed just 2.2 rpg here and will send Aaron Sanchez to the bump in search of his first win of 2021. While Sanchez has an 0-3 TSR, he has a 2.45 ERA and allowed just one run when he faced Miami last week. Daniel Castano was more fortunate when he allowed just one run in his start in last week’s series (Miami won 4-1), but I don’t see him getting much run support tonight as Starling Marte remains out of the lineup. The Giants have lost B2B games just one time so far. 8* San Francisco

8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The Mavs just missed out on covering the 10.5-point spread last night as they downed Detroit 127-117. It was a game they largely controlled in the second half - as they should have considering where the Pistons are in the standings. Dallas will gladly take the SU win, but it’s still six straight ATS losses for a team that had lost four in a row at home going into last night, including two to losing teams. I will point out that they led the Pistons by as many as 17 in the fourth quarter. The number is a LOT shorter tonight and I will lay it as the Mavs look to win two in a row.

The big story for this game is that Anthony Davis is expected to return for the Lakers. Davis says he’s now “100% healthy,” but how effective can he be after missing 30 games? The Lakers went 14-16 SU in his absence and now trail the Nuggets by 2.5 games for fourth place. Remember there’s still no LeBron James. The team hasn’t played since Monday when they lost 111-97 to Utah. While they’ve been alternating wins and losses all month long, I just don’t like their chances here as they are only 3-8 ATS in their L11 games as an underdog. 

I truly believe Dallas will pass Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. Remember how important that is as sixth place allows you to avoid the play-in round. Finishing sixth or better is a stated goal for this team, which has been vocal in its displeasure over the “play-in round.” The six straight ATS losses matches a season-high, previously set in late January. A win here would tie the Mavs with Portland for sixth place. A SU win almost certainly will equal an ATS win and I think we’re getting a real discount due to the Davis news (I don’t think he’ll be that effective). 8* Dallas

10* Boston (7:05 ET): Phoenix continues to show they deserve to be mentioned among the league’s elite as they’ve begun the most difficult road trip of the season (five games out East) with wins over Milwaukee and Philadelphia. But playing for the third time in four nights at Boston, this is hardly what I’d call a “good spot” for them. It was the narrowest of escapes last night in Philly as the Suns won 116-113 when Joel Embiid’s last second desperation heave went “in and out.” The Celtics are dealing with injuries, but are rested and have won 8 of 10. Take the points here.

Boston’s six-game win streak came to a bit of a shocking end Monday as they fell here at home to Chicago, 102-96 as 4.5-point chalk. The team had also previously covered four in a row. Two 18 point quarters doomed the Celtics and they were outscored by 14 in the third. But this team is still a solid 18-11 SU at home and could really use the win here as they are locked into a tight three-way battle for fourth place with the Knicks and Hawks. Not finishing sixth is imperative as it would allow the Celts to avoid the three Eastern Conference heavyweights in the first round of the playoffs. 

Both Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart missed Monday’s loss. They are expected back in the Boston lineup tonight. The team is less optimistic about Jaylen Brown (doubtful) while Jayson Tatum has said he WILL play. Regardless, this is a really good value on a team that isn’t a home dog very often. Phoenix was only a three-point favorite when they hosted the Celtics back in February. They could be excused for an “off-night” here considering the situation and they’ve got another back to back upcoming with the Nets/Knicks. Winning all these games isn’t going to happen. 10* Boston

7* Boston (7:10 ET): These teams have pretty similar records (Red Sox are 12-7, Mariners are 11-7), but the respective run differentials paint a much different picture as Boston is an AL-best +27 while Seattle has actually been outscored (-3) on the season. The Red Sox did have a two-game win streak snapped by Toronto here at Fenway Wednesday while Seattle had the day off. But in a battle of unbeaten starters, I’m siding with the home team. 

Surprisingly, the Red Sox are just 6-6 at Fenway thus far. It’s a 6-1 road record that’s more responsible for them being tied with Oakland for the best overall record in the American League. They are 3-0 in Nick Pivetta starts and will have him on the bump again tonight. Pivetta’s WHIP (1.636) is a little higher than what you want to see and he’s gotten plenty of run support thus far. But Seattle has never faced him and this is a lineup that’s been shutout twice in its last four games. They had just one hit in Tuesday’s 1-0 loss to the Dodgers. 

The Mariners’ starter for this series opener will be Justin Dunn. There are some similarities to Pivetta here as Dunn has also had some control issues and has never faced tonight’s opponents. Dunn also has a 2-0 TSR. He looked good his last time out, but that was against Baltimore. It’s also difficult to look past the EIGHT walks he issued in his first start of the season. Since opening 0-3, the Red Sox are 12-4 and have lost B2B games only one time. The Mariners are just 17-40 in their L57 games at Fenway. 7* Boston

10* Napoli (2:30 ET): In the race for the four Champions League spots in Serie A, the “dropoff” (in terms of points) seems to be around eight or ninth place. Beyond that, no club has a realistic shot of catching the current top four. However, goal differential paints a narrower picture with just five teams well ahead of the pack. Currently in fifth is Napoli with 60 points and a GD of +31. Right behind them (in sixth) is Lazio, last season’s overachievers, with 58 points but a GD of only +10. I think that this match Thursday is an excellent chance for the home side (Napoli) to put some distance between them and their fellow competitors.

Napoli’s GD is right on par with the teams they are chasing. While they are not going to catch Inter Milan for the Scudetto (no one is), finishing second in Serie A is within reach for the Partenopei. Second place Milan (66 points) lost Wednesday and both third place Juventus and fourth place Atalanta have very similar YTD goal differentials (+35 and +34). Napoli trails those clubs by five and four points respectively. They have a much better GD than Milan’s +22 and a higher expected point total as well. Over the past two months, the only Serie A side with fewer defeats than Napoli is Inter, who they just played to a 1-1 draw last week.

Lazio is also in good form, having won five on the bounce in Serie A. But that good form is an obvious byproduct of facing weak competition. Last week’s wild 5-3 win over floundering Benevento was yet another win over a bottom of the table side. They’ve also previously beaten Verona, Spezia, Udinese and Crotone - all by one goal apiece. It was a stoppage time goal that beat Verona 1-0 two weeks ago. Other than that, every team Lazio has beaten during the current win streak is currently 12th or lower in the table. Napoli has revenge here for a 2-0 loss in the reverse fixture back in December. They’ll get it. 10* Napoli.

8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Here we go again, fading the T’wolves off a win. It’s been about the surest bet in the NBA this season. Since starting 2-0, Minnesota has not won back to back games at any point. They are 0-14 SU off a win since that 2-0 start, going 2-11-1 ATS as well. They are being outscored by about 15 PPG in this situation. The last time they were off a win was Sunday and I faded them in Los Angeles (against the Clippers) in what turned out to be a 124-105 loss. They won last night here in Sacramento, 134-120 as 3.5-point underdogs, so there’s only one way to play this matchup from where I sit.

Given all the information listed above, it would be quite embarrassing for the Kings at home B2B days and for a third time this month to the T’wolves. Certainly, little has gone right for Sacramento over the last month as they’ve lost 10 of 11 to play themselves right out of the playoff race. But I can’t see Minnesota shooting 56.7% from the field again (like they did last night). The Kings actually led going into the fourth quarter, which is when everything began to fall apart. They scored just 17 points over the final 12 minutes and were on the wrong end of a 17-3 run down the stretch. 

When the T’wolves are off a SU win as a dog, they are 0-12 SU the next game and 2-10 ATS. In the second night of a back to back, they are getting outscored by 9.2 PPG this season. They entered yday tied with Houston for the worst SU record in the league. The Kings are surely better than how they’ve played of late and will be desperate to win at home for the first time this month. Given the situation at hand, I’ll make the RARE move to lay points with them. 8* Sacramento

10* Under Warriors/Wizards (7:05 ET): The two top scorers in the NBA will be on the same floor tonight as Steph Curry and the Warriors take on Bradley Beal and the Wizards. Curry has been absolutely on fire of late and was the talk of social media Monday night with a 49-point effort against the Sixers. He made 10 three-pointers as it was his 11th straight game with 30+ points and he’s averaged 43.8 PPG on the team’s current road trip. But still, as a team Golden State finished with only 107 points Monday night. You have to figure Curry won’t be going off like THAT again here, even if the Wizards are far from the league’s finest defensive outfit.

Washington comes into tonight on a five-game win streak (also 7-1 L8) as they too are trying to qualify for the postseason. They are in the midst of a “friendly” stretch of home games that has seen them recently defeat New Orleans, Detroit and Oklahoma City. The Wizards’ last four games have all stayed Under as their defense has improved at the right time. They’ve held those last four opponents to 115 pts or less, which may not sound all that impressive, but it is for this team. 

This total is really high. It’s almost identical to the O/U line from the last meeting, which was earlier this month, and saw Washington win 110-107 as a 4.5-point underdog. Curry hadn’t really “caught fire” yet, but still went for 32. The Wizards had four players score at least 19 in that win. I just don’t see the kind of scoring the oddsmakers are expecting to take place here. Only two of Golden State’s last 13 games would have gone Over this number while only three of the Wizards’ last 12 would have done the same. 10* Under Warriors/Wizards

7* Borussia Dortmund (2:30 ET): To some, the price may seem surprisingly high on Borussia Dortmund. After all, Union Berlin isn’t too far behind (just six points back) as they have their own hopes of playing European football next season. But Dortmund, whose form certainly slipped about a month ago, is seemingly in the midst of a resurgence with B2B Bundesliga wins. After recently being eliminated from this year’s Champions League, BVB can qualify again with a strong finish. They enter the day five points behind fourth place Wolfsburg and desperately need three points to keep pace. 

Union Berlin, now tied for seventh, ended a three-match winless run with a 2-0 win against Stuttgart over the weekend. They have never even qualified for the Europa League, so a fifth place finish would be considered a monumental achievement for the club. Keep in mind that FCUB had never even competed at the top level of German football prior to last season. So to even be in seventh, just one year after being promoted, is an achievement of its own. They’ve only lost six times this entire Bundesliga campaign! 

The reverse fixture, back in January, saw FCUB emerge victorious by a score of 2-1. But since that time, they have just one win over a team currently in the top seven and that was 1-0 over Leverkusen. Those two are the ONLY wins they have against top seven sides all season. Pulling off a “Dortmund double” seems far-fetched from where I sit, especially with BVB coming off a very impressive 4-1 win over Werder Bremen. Erling Haaland is the best player on the pitch almost every time he steps on it. 7* Borussia Dortmund

8* Miami (1:10 ET): This series got underway yesterday with Baltimore winning 7-5. For the Orioles, that was a little bit of payback for last season when they were swept by Miami, losing all four times they played. They won yday despite three errors and getting outhit. They came into the game with an 8-26 all-time record vs the Marlins, their worst win percentage against any team in either league. Obviously, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the home team bounce back here and I think they will. 

Trevor Rogers will toe the rubber here for Miami. Through three starts, he’s averaging an impressive 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings. That’s fourth best in the National League. A former 1st round draft choice (2017), Rogers has allowed 2 ER or less in all three of his starts thus far. His best outing came on April 10th when he threw six shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Mets and finished with 10 strikeouts. He won’t have to face Anthony Santander today as the Orioles’ RF exited last night’s game with an injury. 

The Marlins are still without Starling Marte, who is perhaps their best all-around player, however I still think their lineup can get to O’s starter Bruce Zimmerman. Save for a shutout loss Sunday, the Marlins have scored at four runs in seven of the last eight games and they’ve scored six or more four times. A big key here is that the Fish are averaging 7.5 runs this season in games where they face a left-handed starter. I don’t think it’ll take many runs to win this one as Baltimore has been held to three runs or fewer eight times already. 8* Miami

8* Sevilla FC (1:00 ET): With Champions League qualification all but wrapped up, Sevilla can now turn its eye to an even bigger prize. The hottest side in all of La Liga is just six points out of first place and three behind second entering Wednesday’s clash with Levante. Unbeaten in their last seven across all competitions, a sixth win in their last seven would match table leaders Atletico Madrid for the most wins in all of La Liga this season. It could also potentially draw Las Palanganas level with Real Madrid for second by day’s end.

Last time out, Sevilla came from behind to defeat 5th place Real Sociedad 2-1. After conceding in the opening five minutes, they tied the game and took the lead within a three minute span. It was the second straight come from behind victory as they defeated Celta Vigo 4-3 two weeks ago. But what’s impressive here is that three of their past five victories have come against sides in the top seven of the La Liga table. 

Though still in the top half of the table themselves, Levante has been really inconsistent down the stretch. They’ve dropped four of six and last week’s 5-1 loss to Villarreal was the worst result of the bunch. Goal scoring has been an issue with only three total in those six matches. One would have to go all the way back to late February, a span of nine matches, to find the last time Levante scored more than one goal. The reverse fixture against Sevilla back in October was a 1-0 loss. 8* Sevilla FC

9* Tottenham Hotspur (1:00 ET): With all the drama surrounding Tottenham right now, they better come up with the full three points on Wednesday. On top of their recent middling form, the Spurs sacked manager Jose Mourinho and are a part of the big controversy over in Europe right now, that being the mass exodus to the proposed European Super League. But I’m not ready to give up on this side being able to finish in the top four in what could be their final season in the Premier League. Look for them to get the old “new manager bounce” when they play host to Southampton in this one.

With so much controversy currently circling around Tottenham Hotspur, it would be easy to forget that Southampton was just eliminated from the FA Cup with a 1-0 semifinal loss to Leicester City over the weekend. That about does it for the Saints’ motivation this season. They’ve lost 11 of their last 14 Premier League fixtures and are virtually guaranteed a bottom half finish in the table this season. They’re not really in danger of relegation though (nine points clear), so again it’s difficult to find where the motivation comes from this final month of the campaign. No team has fewer points since the turn of the year than Southampton’s 10.

Not saying it will be easy here Tottenham Hotspur in their first match under interim boss Ryan Mason. The club is winless in its last three EPL fixtures and won’t have top goal scorer Harry Kane. Six days from now the Spurs will seek to end their trophy drought in the EFL Cup Final. But if the players have any sense of pride, they’ll rise up here and get the win at home as they attempt to draw nearer to fourth place West Ham, who is currently up five points. They defeated Southampton 5-2 in the reverse fixture back in September. 9* Tottenham Hotspur

10* Orlando (7:35 ET): The Magic are obviously a team in complete disarray right now, but this is a massive number for the Hawks to be laying at the betting window. Even though they’ve won 8 of 10, Atlanta still has only two wins by more than 12 points this month and both were against New Orleans. This is a more familiar opponent, one that has won and covered six of the previous nine meetings. When these teams played last month in Orlando, it was only a three-point win for the Hawks. They did cover as 2.5-point chalk, but the line has obviously grown significantly larger for tonight’s rematch.

Orlando has just one win in its last nine games (115-106 at Chicago on 4/14) and now is the “proud owner” of the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. Perhaps “rock bottom” occurred on Sunday night when they lost at home to a Rockets team that has won only four games since Feb 4. While I do not expect the Magic to win tonight’s game, I do expect them to keep it close. It was really just one bad quarter that killed them Sunday and they still only ended up losing by four. The Magic are 5-2 ATS L7 as road dogs. 

Atlanta has been asked to lay double digits only one other time all season and that came all the way back on December 28th against the Pistons. They won that game, but only by eight points. Subsequently, there have been only a handful of times where they’ve had to lay seven or more points. Twice they lost outright. That they blew all of a 20-point lead against Indiana Sunday night is a concern, even though they still wound up winning that game by 12. The Hawks have a bigger game tomorrow night at New York to worry about. Take the points. 10* Orlando

10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Nationals got embarrassed at home last night, losing 12-5 to a Cardinals team they took two of three from in St. Louis last week. Interestingly enough, their two losses to the Redbirds this season have both been really ugly. (The other was 14-3). But just like they bounced back from the previous one (with a 6-0 win), I expect them to do well tonight. Neither starter has performed well yet this season, but the Cardinals’ overall inconsistency (haven’t won B2B games in 12 days) sticks out. 

Washington’s Pat Corbin has a 21.33 ERA and 3.002 WHIP after two starts. That’s the bad news. The good news is that there’s only one way for those numbers to go from here. He exited after only two innings his last time out, but not before being charged with 10 runs (allowed 3 HRs). His first start wasn’t much better as he allowed six runs, albeit on just six hits. So why the endorsement for tonight? Well, St. Louis is just 1-4 this season after scoring 6+ runs the last time and they’ve been held to three runs or less in four of those games (shutout twice). 

The Nats are also 2-0 this season after giving up 10+ runs. They face Adam Wainwright, whose three starts have resulted in a 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP. The lone one on the road saw him get absolutely hammered for six runs in 2 ⅔ innings. The Cardinals hit five home runs yesterday, a feat they cannot count on regularly occurring, so look for a relatively “silent night” at the plate from them and the home team to bounce back from an embarrassing loss. 10* Washington

8* Over Dodgers/Mariners (4:10 ET): Though they’ve been held to just seven runs total over the L3 games (and LOST to Mariners 4-3 yday), you’ve got to like the Dodgers chances to “break out” offensive today. They will be facing embattled Seattle starter Marco Gonzales, who has an 8.22 ERA and 1.761 WHIP this year. Despite the lack of production at the plate the L3 games, Los Angeles is still averaging 5.5 runs per game and the addition of a DH (AL park) their lineup obviously becomes more potent. 

Jose Urias will start for the Dodgers today, hoping for a better effort than what he gave his last time out. Urias allowed five runs (four earned) in six innings against Colorado last Thursday, ironically way more than he allowed when he faced the Rockies at Coors Field earlier in the month. The Dodgers still won the game, 7-5, and the Over is now 11-1 in Urias’ last 12 starts. The fewest number of runs scored by the Dodgers in any Urias start during that time is four. They’ve AVERAGED 7.5 runs in those 12 games. 

Like I said earlier, Gonzales figures to struggle facing the NL’s highest scoring offense. He was better in his last start, but that was against Baltimore. The first two starts saw him allow 12 runs in 10 ⅓ IP. He’s also already allowed six home runs. Again, facing the already loaded Dodgers lineup plus a DH is a tough task. In his only previous start here at home, Gonzales gave up three home runs. The Dodgers’ lineup has homered in every game but three this season and all but one since the first two games. 8* Over Dodgers/Mariners

10* Arminia Bielefeld (2:30 ET): While it may seem strange to select a match between two bottom of the table sides as our biggest Bundesliga release of the month, this one has major implications for Bielefeld as they try to remain in the German top flight next year. Having gone unbeaten in their last three, last season’s Bundesliga 2 champs are now one point clear of the relegation playoff and four clear of automatic relegation. The cause has certainly been helped by the fact that Hertha Berlin, the team directly below them, has been on pause due to COVID-19. Three points here would be HUGE and Bielefeld couldn’t have asked for a more ideal opponent Tuesday.

Schalke has just 15 points to play for this season and they are 14 points back of safety. So unless they win out and the three teams above them all lose out, their relegation fate is all but sealed. Considering this side has just TWO wins this entire Bundesliga campaign, the idea of winning out seems downright laughable. There was a rare 1-0 win (over Augsburg) two weeks ago, but coming off that I couldn’t wait to fade Schalke on Saturday. Sure enough, they were beaten badly in a 4-0 defeat.

As was the case Saturday, this price is shockingly cheap to go against the last place team in the table, on the road no less. Schalke’s YTD goal differential now sits at an abhorrent -57, more than twice as bad as the next worst team (Koln is -26). They have 10 fewer points than 17th place Koln. Relegation is inevitable. That’s not the case though for Bielefeld, who won the reverse fixture 1-0 back in December. Making matters even worse for Schalke is that they’ll be without a number of first team regulars here. The team they field Tuesday will be about as bad as it gets in this league. 10* Arminia Bielefeld.

10* San Diego (10:05 ET): The Padres came into the 2021 season with incredible expectations and I’m a little impressed that they haven’t collapsed under the weight of them. Remember that Fernando Tatis Jr missed about two weeks with an injury and hasn’t played particularly well when in the lineup. But the team is now 10-7 after salvaging a game with the Dodgers on Sunday. I think “brighter times” are ahead for a San Diego team that should be one of the National League’s best clubs. 

Not only is Milwaukee off an extra innings loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday, but they head to the West Coast without Christian Yelich (2018 MVP), Kolten Wong and Lorenzo Cain. This team is not hitting well as four regulars are below .200 and the team has scored just 66 runs in 15 games. So look for the Brewers to REALLY struggle at the plate tonight as they must face Joe Musgrove, who has a 0.47 ERA and 0.474 WHIP through three starts, including a no-hitter. So far, Musgrove has allowed just ONE run in 19 IP and has a 24-2 KW ratio. 

The Brew Crew counter with Brandon Woodruff, who’s off to a fine start to the season himself. But it’s not as good as Musgrove’s and he’s facing a tougher lineup today. Given their lack of hitting, Milwaukee probably should have even fewer runs scored this year. The absences from the lineup are significant and I think too tough to overcome. It was almost two years ago, but the last time the Brewers came to Petco Park, they got swept. SD is 26-10 L36 as a home favorite and 18-8 L26 series openers. 10* San Diego

7* LA Angels (9:35 ET): The Angels are certainly well-rested as they head into tonight’s series opener with the division rival Rangers. They had two games with the Twins postponed over the weekend due to COVID-19 (issue was with Minnesota). While that had to be a bit disappointing considering the Halos took the series opener 10-3, they’ll gladly take the time off. Overall, it’s an 8-5 start to the season and they are among the league leaders in runs scored this season. I envision an easy win over the last place Rangers. 

Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb, who were scheduled to pitch Saturday and Sunday, will be skipped in the rotation so that Dylan Bundy can make his regularly scheduled start tonight. Bundy has arguably been the Angels’ best pitcher in the early going, though he does not have a win. But he has a 3.32 ERA and 1.053 WHIP through three starts and has been successful in the past vs. Texas with a 5-1 record and 2.91 ERA in nine previous appearances (seven starts). Bundy has turned in three quality starts so far and has 22 strikeouts in 19 IP. 

This line has definitely been steamed up. But for the reasons listed above (Angels’ rest, Bundy), it’s easy to understand why that is. Plus, the Rangers are off a three-game series in Baltimore where they managed just four runs! They did win yesterday 1-0, but it’s difficult to win that way. Not only have they scored just 1 run each of the L2 days, the Rangers have already been shutout three times this season. Starter Kohei Arihara will try to keep them in this one, but the problem is he’s backed by a bullpen that’s been horrendous on the road (7.07 ERA, 1.82 WHIP). Texas is 4-9 off a shutout win the L2 seasons. 7* LA Angels

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons couldn’t be further from the success of the legendary “Bad Boys” of the late 1980’s or even the teams from 15-17 years ago. They have basically spent the entire year in last place in the Eastern Conference. Their current record is 17-40 SU and they’ve dropped four of five following a 21-point setback (121-100) in D.C. on Saturday. But I just can’t understand why they’d be getting points, at home, from a Cleveland team who has a far more negative point differential. Yes, the Cavs have a better SU record. But this is just the third time they will be a road favorite in 2020-21. 

I know the Pistons are currently fielding a VERY young lineup. A majority of the veterans are dealing with injuries, so they will be resting tonight. It’s not like the team was doing that well with those players on the floor, so I don’t really view this as a negative. While the Pistons were blown out by a surging Wizards team over the weekend, this is basically the same starting lineup that beat Oklahoma City here at home on Friday. While the Thunder are 30th (last) in my personal power rankings, the Cavs are 29th. So this is a very winnable game for a Detroit team that’s already 16-5 ATS this season when off a double digit loss.

This is also a big revenge game for the Pistons. They are 0-2 vs. the Cavs in 2020-21 (and 0-9 SU in all division games!). The day after X-Mas saw the Pistons blow a late lead and lose in double overtime. Then it was a rare hot shooting night for Cleveland (at home) in the second meeting. The Cavs have a per game point differential of -7.3 (Detroit just -3.8, which is actually better than three teams in the East, including the Wizards). I just faded the Cavs as a short road dog against a Chicago team that had dropped five in a row and that turned out to be an easy win. Cleveland has also lost four of five and should NOT be favored in this one. 10* Detroit

10* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): The Clippers are off a rare loss (106-103 at Philadelphia) while Minnesota is off an even rarer win (119-111 over Miami). Typically, this is a tremendous spot to bet against the T’wolves. Not only have they failed to win B2B games since a 2-0 start to the season, they are 2-10-1 ATS off their previous 13 SU victories. When off a win this season, the T’wolves are being outscored by 12.6 points per game. The last time, they lost by 30 at Brooklyn. They are a league-worst 5-23 SU on the road and the last two away games have seen them surrender 141 and 145 points. 

The Clippers had won seven in a row before losing in Philly Friday night. Playing without Kawhi Leonard for the fourth straight time, they fell behind early (trailed by 11 after one quarter) and had no answer for Joel Embiid, who had 36 points and 14 rebounds. But they still made a game of it. Leonard is questionable for tonight, but Paul George has been the best player in the Western Conference over the last week and the opponent is as weak as it gets here. The last time the Clips hosted Minnesota, they won by 23. They are 22-8 SU at home this season and also beat the T’wolves by seven on the road in February. 

Minnesota was a seven-point dog in Friday’s upset win over Miami. When off a SU win as a dog, they are 0-11 SU/2-9 ATS the next time out. Not only did they recently lose to the Nets by 30, they also lost by 25 to the Bucks. I bring those results up because those are top tier teams like the Clippers. The T’wolves are allowing 122.1 PPG when off a SU win and here they are facing the league’s most efficient offense. After a SU loss, LA is 14-4 SU/12-6 ATS with a point differential of +9.9 PPG. 10* LA Clippers

10* Real Madrid (3:00 ET): Compared to the other three “big” European leagues (EPL, Bundesliga, Serie A), first place in La Liga is very much up for grabs. Atletico Madrid has led most of the way, thanks to a dominant start to the campaign. But they’ve been far less dominant over the last couple months and that has opened the door for both Real Madrid and Barcelona to inch closer to the top. Real Madrid will be looking to make it five straight victories here in the Spanish top flight as they pay a visit to Getafe on Sunday. This should be an easy three points and by the end of the day, Los Blancos could find itself first in the table.

Now Real Madrid is not at full strength here (injuries and suspensions) and must avoid a hangover from their advancement to the Champions League semi finals. Wednesday’s 0-0 draw with Liverpool was enough to get by on aggregate as Los Blancos took the first leg, 3-1. In between the two legs, they picked up another significant win, 2-1 over rival Barca in El Clasico. Prior to the goalless draw at Anfield on Wednesday, Real Madrid had won six straight across all competitions. 

While Getafe has been a much tougher “out” at home as opposed to their travels this season, they have not beaten Real Madrid in La Liga action since 2008! Furthermore, they haven’t even scored a single goal in any of the last three fixtures. This season’s reverse ended up 2-0. Entering Sunday, Getafe sits 15th in the table and is only four points clear of the relegation zone. While a win (or even a draw) would do them wonders, I just don’t see it as they are simply not in the same class as the second place side (and now Champions League semi finalists). 10* Real Madrid

10* Under Pirates/Brewers (2:10 ET): Each team has won a game handily in this series. Pittsburgh opened with a 6-1 win on Friday before Milwaukee fired back with a 7-1 win one Saturday. The Brew Crew are heavily favored to take Sunday’s rubber match and while I see a strong likelihood of that occurring, the Under offers more value here and is even more likely to cash. Each of the Brewers’ last four games have gone Under with none of them seeing more than eight total runs scored. 

Whether you like the Brewers or the Under, starter Freddy Peralta has got to be the key to victory. In three appearances this year (two starts), Peralta has dazzled by allowing just one run and five hits in 13 IP. He has 24 strikeouts, second most on the team, as well. The lone run surrendered was on a home run. His ERA is down to 0.69 and opponents are batting just .119 off him. While Peralta has 10 career appearances against the Pirates, his only start saw him toss six shutout innings. 

The Pirates, who are widely expected to be a bad team in 2021, had been hitting well going into yesterday. But they went 0 for 9 with RISP. It should be noted that five of Milwaukee’s seven runs yesterday came with two outs in the first inning. Bucs starter Chad Kuhl has been shaky so far with all three starts going Over. But he’s 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Milwaukee. The Brew Crew winning here would be beneficial as they’d come up to bat eight times, rather than nine. 10* Under Pirates/Brewers

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): The Indians really let one get away yesterday. They led 2-1 going into the bottom of the ninth and could have been up by even more, were it not for Josh Naylor lining into a triple play (had runners at the corners) in the eighth inning. Naylor’s infamy would then continue when he let a routine grounder go through his legs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, leading to the tying run. The Reds went on to win 3-2 in 10 innings, their second straight victory over the Tribe as they also won 10-3 on Friday. Looking to avoid the sweep, Cleveland sends its ace to the mound Sunday (Shane Bieber). 

The Indians’ lack of offensive firepower is not promising when playing in a National League park. Of course, the pitcher has to come up to bat. But with Bieber also on the mound, they should be in good shape here. Bieber went the distance his last time out, allowing only three hits and turning in a 15th straight start with at least eight strikeouts. Last year’s AL Cy Young winner now has a 2.11 ERA and 0.891 WHIP through three starts and he’s 2-0 w/ a 3.15 ERA in three career starts vs. the Reds.

Wade Miley has never started a season with three consecutive wins in his big league career, but that’s what the Reds starter for Sunday is aiming for here. Miley has previously held the Giants & Pirates, two light-hitting NL teams, to just four total hits in 11 scoreless innings of work. But I’m skeptical of that continuing, even though the Indians are hardly the 1927 Yankees. The Reds are just 25-74 their L99 Interleague games as an underdog. It’s notable that they are underdogs here after winning as favorites each of the previous two days. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Arlovski/Sherman (11:15 ET): Andre Arlovski, the former UFC Heavyweight Champion, is about to step inside the Octagon for a 35th time. That’s the most ever for a heavyweight. He’s 19-14-1 for the promotion and 30-20 all-time. He will face Chase Sherman Saturday. Sherman is 15-6 in his MMA career, including 3-5 for the UFC. This fight is scheduled for three rounds and I believe is likely to head to the cards. Take the Over 2.5 rounds. 

Arlovski was NOT the originally scheduled opponent for Sherman here. He stepped in as a late replacement when Parker Porter was forced to withdraw (undisclosed reasons) earlier this month. Arlovski is coming off a second round loss to Tom Aspinall in February when he was choked out. But prior to that, he’d won three of four fights, all three wins coming via decision. His game plan here will likely be slow-paced striking to hopefully earn another judge’s decision.

While Sherman does not have the best UFC record, he does come into this fight riding a four-fight win streak. All four wins have come via TKO. Three of those wins occurred outside the UFC, but he made a successful return to the promotion last May when he defeated Isaac Villanueva in the second round. The vast majority of Sherman’s fights have not gone to the cards, but this is a tricky matchup against a veteran he was not originally preparing to fight. 10* Over Arlovski/Sherman

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): When the Bulls traded for Nikola Vucevic last month, it was supposed to lead to a charge up the Eastern Conference standings. Instead, the team is now 3-9 SU since that trade and on a five-game losing streak (also 0-5 ATS) following last night’s defeat at the hands of Memphis. Obviously, leading scorer Zach LaVine being in COVID protocol doesn’t help. But recent losses to the likes of Orlando and Minnesota are downright inexcusable when in the stretch run. As ugly as things have gotten here in the Windy City, I just can’t see the Bulls losing at home tonight to lowly Cleveland. 

The Cavaliers are actually just two games back of the Bulls, which should be a major wake-up call for the home team tonight. The Cavs are very much a bottom five team in the league, despite their “closeness” to the Bulls in the standings right now. I make that statement based on their YTD point differential and net efficiency rating. Cleveland is the worst offensive team in the NBA on a per game and per possession basis. If Chicago can’t win this one, they really ought to be ashamed of themselves.

The last time these teams met was last month and the Cavs did win here in Chicago, 103-94 as 7.5-point underdogs. But as you can see, we’re getting a MUCH shorter line with the home team in this one. The Bulls were just 28.6% from three-point range in that last meeting, a number I expect them to improve upon tonight. Cleveland has lost 8 of 11 since beating the Bulls, so they’re in no better shape. I can’t see the Bulls’ defense being as bad as it was in the 2H last night. This is a classic “buy low” spot. 10* Chicago

10* Over Giants/Marlins (6:10 ET): Miami kicked off this series with a 4-1 win Friday. That’s far fewer total runs than what we saw in their previous series (against Atlanta) where the four games averaged 13.5 rpg. The Marlins won three of them, including two in extra innings. The offense has been far less spectacular at home this season, but I think it’s only a matter of time before they begin to “break out.” Same for the Giants, who are now 10-1 Under their L11 games. Nine of those 11 games have seen five or fewer totals runs scored. Seems unsustainable? 

Starting today for the Marlins will be Sandy Alcantara. The Under is 3-0 in his 2021 starts and 7-1 his last eight starts going back to the end of last season. So again, I’m really “bucking” the trends here. But let it be known that Alcantara has allowed three runs each of his last two starts and he had a season-high three walks his last time out. He’s also long overdue for some run support after the Marlins have scored just seven total runs in his three starts this year. 

The Giants’ offense is near the bottom of the league right now with just 3.4 runs per game. They had even less than that last night as there were only three hits outside of Mike Yastrzemski’sdouble and triple. But I think they’ll get going tonight. As for starter Aaron Sanchez, it’s been a long road back to relevancy. After missing all of 2020 and a 5.89 ERA in ‘19, I’m not sold on his start to this season, which has seen him give up just three runs in 10 IP. These teams are DUE for an Over. This is a low number. It’s that simple. 10* Over Giants/Marlins

8* Wolverhampton (3:00 ET): The Wolves are having a pretty disappointing Premier League campaign. They currently sit 12th in the table. But a late goal enabled them to take the full three from Fulham last week and now they’ve got a golden opportunity to make it back to back wins for just the third time in 2020-21.This one is especially important to them as they’ve lost two in a row here at home. One would have to go all the way back to 2018 to find the last time the Wolves dropped three straight at Molineux.

The opposition this week is last place Sheffield United, so I don’t think Wolves’ fans need to worry about matching that dubious mark. United, whose relegation is all but confirmed at this point, has turned in an absolutely dreadful campaign. At one point, it seemed as if they might set the Premier League record for fewest points in a season. That’s not going to happen, but they still have 10 fewer points than 19th place West Brom and are 18 adrift from where they’d need to be to avoid relegation. Making up that gap isn’t going to happen. 

Over the previous four fixtures, all losses, United has produced a goal differential of -11 as they’ve conceded 12 times while scoring only one goal of their own. On their travels this season, they have incredibly picked up just four points (out of a possible 45!) while scoring only seven goals in the process! So things are rather dire here. For the Wolves, the 1-0 win over Fulham snapped a five-match winless run. But the previous two home defeats came against Liverpool and West Ham, both of whom are top six sides right now. United is obviously at the opposite end of the spectrum and they are also winless in their last seven trips to Molineux. The reverse fixture was 2-0 back in September and I’m looking for a similar result Saturday. 8* Wolverhampton

8* Freiburg (9:30 AM ET): Something happened last week that had occurred only one other time during this entire Bundesliga campaign. Schalke actually won a match. Now the club’s second win of the season isn’t about to save them from relegation. The last place team in the table has only 13 points (10 fewer than the next worst team) and a -53 goal differential. To put that GD in perspective, the second worst (GD) in the Bundesliga is Arminia Bielefeld’s -24. There is a good chance that Schalke’s impending relegation fate will be officially sealed by this weekend (to be determined by results elsewhere). 

I think being off a win sets Schalke up as a clear fade on Saturday as they visit Freiburg. Given how poorly Schalke’s season has gone, it seems downright shocking that the price is so cheap here to go against them on the road. Now Freiburg is dealing with some injuries, but this middle of the table side still has more than enough to get the full three points here. Now I know they’ve lost four of five overall. But that should only serve to have them extra motivated for this very winnable match, especially on the heels of a BRUTAL 1-0 loss to Bielefeld where an own-goal was the difference maker. 

Despite the recent poor form, Freiburg is very much a “middle of the table” side and should remain there by season’s end. A win here could actually move them up into a 7th place tie, depending what else happens on Saturday. The idea that Schalke would win two in a row seems almost ludicrous seeing as they’ve haven’t gone two straight w/o losing at least one time since November! The reverse fixture, played back in December, was 2-0 Freiburg.  8* Freiburg

10* Under Knicks/Mavericks (9:30 ET): The surprising Knicks have won four straight and are on an even longer ATS win streak of seven games. They are now in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, which is not something I saw coming at the start of the season. But their underlying metrics suggest there is nothing phony about this. Key to their success under HC Tom Thibodeau is the fact the Knicks are #1 in the NBA in points allowed as they are giving up only 104.3 per game. On average, their games are the lowest scoring in the entire league at 209.9 PPG. 

Dallas led the league in offensive efficiency a year ago, but not in 2020-21 as they are down to 10th in that category. On Wednesday night, the Mavs won a game that they badly needed. Luka Doncic capped a fourth quarter rally with a “lucky” last second shot to defeat Memphis 114-113. Unfortunately, that shot cost me a winning Under ticket. But all the Mavs care about is they are now within one game of Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. I do believe they’ll pass the Blazers by season’s end and thus avoid the “play-in round” that they’ve been so critical of. 

While this is a low total, that shouldn’t be all that surprising with the Knicks involved. Also, Dallas has failed to score 100 points twice in its last five games. Over the past month, the most points allowed by the Knicks in regulation is 114. They’ve held eight opponents under 100 during that time and only four (out of 16) have been able to top 102. The Mavs’ scoring average decreases at home (down to 109.8 PPG) and the Under is 10-1 L11 home games. When these teams played two weeks ago, the final score was 99-86 (Dallas won). 10* Under Knicks/Mavericks

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies got an unexpected off-day when yesterday’s game with the Mets was rained out. Just as well, the Phils had lost the first three games of that series to fall to 6-6 on the year. But the season began with a 5-1 homestand and their back at Citizens Bank Park tonight to host the Cardinals, who are also 6-6. The Cards, like the Phillies, have lost four of their last five games. They were shutout on Wednesday, 6-0 by Washington, in a game where they finished with only four hits.

Zach Eflin will start tonight’s game for Philadelphia. Both of his previous starts were against Atlanta. Mirroring his team’s performance, Eflin pitched much better when he started at home against the Braves than when he faced them on the road. In the home start, he allowed just one run on four hits in 7 IP. I think we’ll get something closer to that tonight as opposed to the four runs he allowed (in 6 IP) at Atlanta last weekend. The Cardinals have not faced Eflin in nearly three years. The Phillies are 35-16 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the L3 seasons, regardless of who the starter is.

St. Louis is 0-2 following an off-day this season and just 10-21 in that situation since 2019. They should feel a bit fortunate to be averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road so far as they are batting a collective .206 in those games. Carlos Martinez will make his third start of the season for the Redbirds today. He hasn’t pitched all that well so far with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in two starts. The Cards lost both, including 12-1 in the one that was on the road. 10* Philadelphia

8* Indiana (3:05 ET): We’ve got a rare weekday afternoon game in Salt Lake City Friday as the Jazz host the Pacers. Utah still has the best overall record in the league (41-14 SU), however they’ve gone just 3-3 their last six games and were very short-handed in Tuesday’s 106-96 win over sorry Oklahoma City. Three players were out, and as a result the Jazz actually fell behind the Thunder by as many as 17 points. Only seven players ended up scoring, but that ended up being enough to get the win. As of this writing, it’s unclear how many of the three injured players (O’Neale, Ingles, Clarkson) will return tonight. 

Conversely, Indiana had a MUCH easier time in its last game. They led wire to wire in a 132-124 win at Houston. That was the fourth win in the last five games as the Pacers try to lock down a spot for the postseason (which begins next month). Currently 8th in the East, Indiana has shown more offense these L5 games, averaging 126.2 PPG. They typically have NOT performed well ATS when coming off a high-scoring effort, but it’s also rare to find them getting as many points as they are here.

While winning in Salt Lake City is tough, the Pacers do sport a 17-12 SU road record this season, which is pretty good. Also, the Jazz did just lose here at home, 125-121 to Washington on Monday night. That snapped a 24-game home win streak. They’ll likely still be short-handed here and the Pacers make for their toughest opponent in over a week. (The Jazz’s L3 games have been against Sacramento, Washington and OKC). The Pacers were able to keep it close (lost by 8) when the teams played last month. I think they do the same again here. 8* Indiana

8* Atlanta (2:20 ET): So this will be the second straight day I’m rolling with the Braves. Yesterday, they won in walk-off fashion, 7-6 over Miami. It was a much needed win as Atlanta had lost the first three games of that series, two of them in extra innings. They very nearly blew another one yesterday as a 5-4 lead turned into a 6-5 deficit in the top of the ninth. Thankfully, they were able to rally for two (runs) of their own in the bottom half of the inning with Dansby Swanson’s RBI single being the game-winner. 

Now the Braves move onto Chicago where they’ll face a Cubs team that is also below .500 after losing four of five. The Cubs just dropped two of three in Milwaukee before an off-day on Thursday. They actually own the worst run differential (-20) in the National League right now, which is never a good distinction. Also not good are the numbers thus far from Friday starter Zach Davies, who has an 11.04 ERA and 2.044 WHIP. He was really roughed up his last time out, giving up seven runs in 1 ⅔ IP and that was against the lowly Pirates. 

Atlanta will go with lefty Drew Smyly. Some would argue that ERA is an outdated, often misleading, way to measure a pitcher’s performance. Smyly’s two starts certainly make a case for that. While his ERA is 5.73, he has a 0.909 WHIP. In 11 IP, he’s allowed only nine hits, but he’s been charged with nine runs (two unearned). Three home runs haven’t helped, but Smyly has an 11-1 KW ratio. I think he’s pitched better than the ERA shows and he should do well against a Cubs lineup that is last in MLB with a 2.7 runs per game average. The Cubs are hitting a collective .163 and have eight games with five or less hits. They have the highest strikeout rate in the NL (29.4%) as well. 8* Atlanta

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Obviously, this does not seem like the ideal spot for the Kings to end an ugly eight game losing skid. After all, they are in the second night of a back to back and facing a team that is second in the Western Conference. Last night saw them drop a home game to the Wizards, 123-111 as two-point underdogs. While I don’t think they can beat the Suns, I do think this is a generous number for a battle of division opponents. It’s more than the Kings were getting when they traveled to Utah last week.

Utah is the only team ahead of Phoenix right now in the Western Conference, though the red hot Clippers are hot on the Suns’ heels. Two nights ago I laid a much shorter number with the Suns here at home and they rolled to an impressive 106-86 win over Miami. But an odd trend has developed with Phoenix over the last three weeks; they’ve failed to cover B2B games even one time. They are 0-6 ATS off their previous six ATS wins and while they’ve suffered only one straight up defeat during that time (Clippers), this is a big number to cover. 

The last two times Phoenix has been off an ATS win and laying double digits, they were playing Houston. Both times they failed to cover as they won those games by only three and six points. After an ATS win, the Suns are only +4.8 PPG this season. So expect this one to be closer than the oddsmakers (and public) think as Sacramento is desperate for something resembling a competent performance and should turn one in here. 10* Sacramento

10* Arsenal (3:00 ET): The first leg of this quarterfinal was a 1-1 draw as Slavia Prague was able to get a stoppage time equalizer after Arsenal opened the scoring in the 86th minute and seemingly had the match won. That precious away goal by Slavia puts some pressure on the Gunners here as they will now need either a win here or a draw with at least two goals scored. I believe they are likely to get the win against their overmatched opponent the second time around. 

Now I’m not saying it will be easy as Slavia Prague is unbeaten in its last 23 matches across all competitions and has yet to lose here at home this season. They have 11 wins and two draws here in Prague, although it should be pointed out that both times they failed to win, it was against an English side. Arsenal is unbeaten in its last six away matches, including a 3-0 win at Sheffield United over the weekend where they looked especially dominant. 

Now Sheffield United is the last place side in the Premier League and nowhere near the test that Slavia Prague will be. But keep in mind the Czech side, as dominant as they’ve been, does not face the caliber of competition that Arsenal regularly faces in the EPL. Because they are 9th in the EPL table with little chance of catching the top five, winning this year’s Europa League seems like the only viable path for the Gunners to continue their streak of playing European football next season. I like them to get it done (today). 10* Arsenal

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox scored six runs in the first inning last night. After that, they sat back and watched starter Carlos Rodon toss a no-hitter. Rodon was actually two outs away from a perfect game when he plunked Indians catcher Roberto Perez. That HBP was the only runner Cleveland had the whole night in what ended up being an 8-0 game. I look for the home team to ride the momentum of that win and go on to take the series. They’ve held Cleveland to just five runs in three games so far. 

Rodon wasn’t the first White Sox starter to go the distance without allowing a run this season. Thursday starter Lance Lynn did it his last time out as well. While Lynn did allow five hits in his complete game effort, it still wound up being a 6-0 win with 11 strikeouts and zero walks. Lynn has actually yet to be charged with an earned run this season as the two he allowed in his first start were both unearned. Lynn has very good career numbers against the Indians as he’s 3-1 with a 1.06 ERA in four starts. He has 31 strikeouts in 26 IP. So expect him to pitch well today. 

Cleveland doesn’t have a strong lineup. They are batting a collective .195 this season and have been held to four runs or less seven times in the last 10 games. So it will take a Herculean effort from starter Anthony Civale to get it done today. Civale does have two quality starts already, but both were against Detroit. Chicago is averaging 5.2 rpg and will welcome SS Tim Anderson back in the lineup. The White Sox are 22-10 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -175. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Minnesota (1:10 ET): Yesterday’s doubleheader saw Boston win twice (3-2 and 7-1) and now they go for a four-game sweep at Target Field where the Twins are uncharacteristically struggling. Minnesota is 70-50 in all home games the L3 seasons (that includes the three losses in this series) and I just can’t see them dropping four in a row to the same team, even with the Red Sox being as hot as they are right now. You don’t see home teams get swept in four-game series all that often, at least not GOOD teams, and I’ll bet against it happening here. 

The Red Sox season seemingly got off to an ominous start as they were swept in three games by the lowly Orioles at Fenway Park. But since then, they’ve won nine straight! While the offense has been hot, they caught a bit of a break in the nightcap Wednesday when Twins starter Jose Berrios uncharacteristically had no control. Michael Pineda, who starts Thursday for the Twins, has a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in two starts so far and I like him to get the job done. 

Minnesota hitters are a horrible 1 for 24 with RISP in this series, which tells me that they SHOULD have scored a lot more runs. Today feels like a spot where they should breakthrough as they face Garrett Richards, who had an ugly first outing (allowed six runs in two innings), then gave up two home runs his second time out. Josh Donaldson is now back in the Twins lineup. Pineda has given up just three runs in 11 IP and I look for the Twins to avoid the sweep. 8* Minnesota

8* Atlanta (12:20 ET): The Braves are hoping to avoid a most embarrassing fate, that being a four-game sweep at home. Two of the three games in this series with the Marlins have been decided in extra innings. The Braves really let one slip away Monday when they blew a late 3-1 lead and lost 5-3 in 10 innings. Last night was a different story as they fell behind early (5-0 going into the home half of the 3rd) and then their rally was “in vain.” It should be pointed out that the Braves were massive favorites (-256) on the money line yesterday. They also lost 14-8 on Tuesday. 

Now that I’ve told you how BAD things have gone for the home team in this series, I’m going to sell you on TAKING THEM today. Home teams don’t often get swept in four-game series and I don’t think it’ll happen here. Atlanta should have won Monday’s opener and the fact they’ve now lost twice in extras should tell you that this has been a competitive series despite one team winning all three games. The Braves are normally a good home team (74-48 L3 seasons) and they are still 24-11 vs. Miami since the start of 2019 as well. 

In fact, Miami has NEVER swept a four-game series against Atlanta in franchise history! Ronald Acuna is hitting the cover off the ball for the Braves and I expect that to continue today against southpaw Trevor Rogers, who is highly unlikely to replicate his last start where he shutout the Mets for six innings. Atlanta counters with Ian Anderson, who has a 1.04 ERA in two previous appearances vs. Miami. 8* Atlanta

10* Over Rockies/Dodgers (10:05 ET): Colorado, who has gone Under in each of its last six games, was shut out 7-0 last night by Trevor Bauer and the Dodgers. It was the Rockies’ second straight shutout loss as they were also blanked 4-0 by the Giants on Monday. They’ve now lost four in a row, all on the road, and scored a grand total of four runs in those games. While I can’t say “I like their chances” tonight in LA, I do think they’ll be able to put at least a few runs on the board and that should be enough to send this Over. 

The Dodgers have won four in a row and three of those have come via shutout! As anticipated, this is looking like a dominant ballclub as they’re now 9-2 on the season and one of those losses came Opening Day in Colorado. Last night matched their biggest margin of victory of the season as Bauer allowed only one hit over seven innings. The offense leads MLB in team batting average (.285) and is putting up nearly six runs per game. 

Dustin May will start tonight’s game for the Dodgers, who look to move to 5-0 at home. May threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball in his first start, which was at Oakland. Yet that game ended up being a 10-3 final (in the Dodgers’ favor). Jon Gray, who starts for the Rockies tonight, took a no-hitter into the 7th inning his last time out. But he has struggled in the past vs. the Dodgers, especially here at Chavez Ravine where he’s 1-5 w/ a 6.84 ERA in six career starts. 10* Over Rockies/Dodgers

8* Under Mavericks/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): This is a pretty important game for these teams, both of which are looking to move up the Western Conference standings and avoid the play-in scenario for this year’s playoffs. Remember that a team has to finish 6th (or better) to avoid the play-in. I give both of these teams a good shot at moving past Portland (who currently occupies 6th place), Dallas moreso. But the Mavericks come into tonight as losers of two straight while Memphis is off a 101-90 win over Chicago. 

The Under is 7-1 in Dallas’ past eight games. They scored only 95 points in a home loss to Philadelphia on Monday where they shot only 42.2% from the field. They were just 9 of 36 from three-point range. This team’s offensive efficiency is way down compared to last season when they led the league in that department. Currently, they are 10th in offensive efficiency. On the bright side, they did defeat Memphis 102-92 in the season’s first meeting as they held the Grizzlies to 6 of 31 shooting from three-point range. 

Going back to last year, the Grizz have averaged just 94 points the L2 times they have faced the Mavs. Their defense had been poor in recent losses to the Knicks and Pacers, however one of those games (Knicks) did go to OT. The defense improved tremendously vs. Chicago Monday night as they allowed 41.9% shooting including 5 of 31 from three-point range. The Under is 33-11 in Memphis’ last 44 home games including 5-0 the L5 when they are the dog. 8* Under Mavericks/Grizzlies

10* Under Magic/Bulls (8:05 ET): Orlando has really sunk into the abyss as they’re on a six-game losing streak which has seen them get beat by double digits five times and by 20+ points three times. They have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. Obviously, there are major issues defensively as this six-game skid has seen them allow an average of 123.7 points per game. But for purposes of this play, be more focused on the fact that they’ve failed to crack 100 themselves three different times during the same stretch. That includes both of the last two games. 

Chicago is just trying to get into the playoffs. They currently occupy the last spot for the Play-In Tournament as they are in 10th place, 1.5 games ahead of a Toronto team that I happen to think is better than they are. Despite bolstering their rotation at the trade deadline, the Bulls have failed to “pick up the pace” and come into tonight’s game on a three-game losing streak. They’ve lost 9 of 12 overall. Now the majority of those losses have come on the road. This is the first of three straight winnable home games on the upcoming schedule, but the problem is they are only 10-16 SU at home this season. 

The Bulls are also coming off a loss in which they failed to score 100 points. They shot 5 of 31 from three-point range in a 101-90 setback at Memphis Monday night. While they figure to shoot better than that here, they only average 109.7 PPG at home. Of course, that might be enough as Orlando averages just 102.2 PPG on the road (29th in the league). These teams played earlier in the season and it was 118-92 in Orlando and that was with the Bulls (who won) shooting better than 50% (including 15 of 30 from 3-pt range). They won’t shoot that well here. 10* Under Magic/Bulls

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): The Suns used a big 1st half, which included a NBA record 18 made three-pointers, to roll to a 126-120 victory last night over Houston. The good news is that the hot start enabled them to go on “cruise control” down the stretch, important since they were in the front end of this back to back. The bad news is for anyone who bet them as a 23-point halftime advantage wound up shrinking down to six by the final whistle as the Suns failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites. I’ll “swoop in” tonight though and take them laying a much shorter number. 

Since the start of March, Miami has been very hot and cold. They went on a five-game winning streak, then a six-game losing streak and are now 6-1 SU their L7 games. Sunday night, the Heat began what will be a four-game road trip with a 107-98 win in Portland. As is the case with Phoenix here, the Blazers were in the second night of a back to back. Miami actually built a 20-point lead early in the fourth quarter. But this is a much more challenging opponent set for Tuesday as the Suns are 30-8 their L38 games including 8-1 L9. 

Phoenix is 2nd in the Western Conference, just 1.5 games behind Utah, who lost last night. While the Heat have had the Suns’ number in the past (20-6 ATS L26 head to head meetings, 11-1 ATS L12 here in Phoenix), the last two matchups have gone Phoenix’s way. That includes a 110-100 win in Miami last month as two-point favorites. Though the Heat are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, they still have a negative point differential on the season. The Suns don’t have to travel for this back to back (last night’s game was also at home) and they are 5-1 SU this season in the 2nd of B2B home games, winning by an average of 9.3 PPG. They are the much better side here. 10* Phoenix

8* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros suffered a rather embarrassing setback last night. They fell 6-2 to the Tigers as starter Zack Greinke really struggled, giving up all six runs in just 4 ⅔ innings of work. The chances of losing to the lowly Tigers twice in a row, at home, seems small though. So we’re backing the hosts on Tuesday as they’d gotten off to a great start to the season before losing three in a row, all here at home. They still have a +19 run differential, which is second best in the entire American League. 

Detroit, now 4-6 on the young season, has the second WORST run differential among AL teams at -21. So as the odds indicate, this is a mismatch on paper. Last night was the Tigers’ first road win of 2021 as they’d been swept in Cleveland over the weekend. Over the last three seasons, they are 37-76 away from Comerica Park, including 17-32 as an underdog of +125 to +175. Last night was also just the second win by the Tigers in the L11 meetings w/ Houston. The Astros should be highly motivated to bounce back from such an embarrassing defeat. 

A couple of late solo homers allowed Houston to avoid being shutout last night, which would have been REALLY embarrassing. But it should be noted they were 0 for 11 with RISP. Look for more timely hitting tonight against Matthew Boyd, whose strikeout to walk ratio has steadily decreased over the past two seasons. The Astros counter with Jake Odorizzi, who will be making his 2021 debut. Odorizzi has not pitched much since a career-year in 2019 with Minnesota. Detroit has NOT hit well so far, so this is an ideal first trip to the mound. 8* Houston

8* LA Clippers (7:35 ET): If Kawhi Leonard was playing tonight, this line would obviously be higher. But even after factoring in Leonard’s absence and the Pacers’ home court “advantage,” the number looks a little low to me. The Clippers are a hot team right now as they’ve won five in a row by an average of nearly 14 points per game. Keeping up with the Jazz and Suns is imperative. Without Kawhi, they were able to defeat Detroit 131-124 on Sunday. As I’ll get into momentarily, Indiana’s home record is shockingly poor. 

While the Clippers are trying to inch closer to the top of the Western Conference, Indiana is just trying to remain relevant in the Eastern Conference. Right now, the Pacers are in 9th place and that’s with a three-game win streak coming into tonight. Those wins - which were against Minnesota, Orlando and Memphis - have them within two games of .500. The mediocre overall won-loss record is largely owed to the fact they are 9-15 SU (7-17 ATS) at home, one of the worst such records in the entire league this year. 

So there’s really no “home court advantage” for the Pacers here. Myles Turner is out for them and defensively there are issues with two of the last three opponents scoring at least 125. The Clippers are #1 in the league in offensive efficiency and while not having Leonard hurts a little, they still have Paul George, who went for 32 against the Pistons. When these teams met in January, the Clippers ran away with a 129-96 victory as seven different players finished in double figures. 8* LA Clippers

8* Under Nuggets/Warriors (10:05 ET): Thanks to a disastrous fourth quarter (in which they scored only EIGHT points), the Nuggets saw their eight-game win streak come to an end Sunday at the hands of the Boston Celtics. Denver actually led by eight going into the 4th, but then things completely fell apart as Boston scored 40 of the game’s final 48 points. The Nuggets finished with a 36.4 FG% including 8 of 34 from three-point range as they played for the fourth straight time w/o PG Jamal Murray (who is listed as questionable for tonight). 

We know Golden State is going to be short-handed coming into this game as they are without Kelly Oubre Jr and James Wiseman, their third and fourth leading scorers. This puts even more pressure on Steph Curry, who has scored 32+ in each of the L6 games, but the Warriors are just 3-3 SU in that stretch. The Dubs are only 21st in offensive efficiency, a far cry from their “heyday,” so if they are to “get it done” here, it’ll have to be via the defensive end (they are 8th in efficiency there). 

Two short-handed teams, one playing in the second night of a back to back, seems like a recipe for an Under to me. Denver’s offensive efficiency drops noticeably without Murray in the lineup. They won’t have a quarter as bad as the fourth yesterday, but the Under is 6-1 in the Nuggets’ last seven road games. Golden State has little offensive firepower beyond Curry and probably won’t match the 53.8% shooting we saw from them when they defeated the inept Rockets on Saturday. 8* Under Nuggets/Warriors

10* Over Nationals/Cardinals (7:45 ET): Still reeling from a COVID-19 outbreak, the short-handed Nationals have dropped five in a row while being shutout in three of the last four losses. It should be mentioned that two of those shutouts were against the Dodgers, who have tremendous pitching staff. In the three games where they were NOT blanked this season, the Nats put up at least five runs. So there have been some games where the offense has done just fine, despite the missing players. 

St. Louis just gave up nine runs both Saturday and Sunday. That was after allowing just four runs total the previous four games. But the first series of the year saw them hit hard as they allowed 27 runs in three games to the Reds. So, outside of Miami, everyone is getting to the Cards’ pitching thus far. Through nine games, the bullpen has actually worked more innings than the starting rotation, which is not a good sign. 

Starting today for the Cards will be John Gant, who allowed only an unearned run when he faced the Marlins last Tuesday. That was his 1st start since 2018. While he allowed only the one run, he did walk three batters and needed 82 pitches to record 12 outs. My view is that the Washington hitters will break out of their slump today against Gant. But starting Erick Fedde is a problem for the Nationals as he allowed six runs in 1 ⅔ innings his first time out. 10* Over Nationals/Cardinals

8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers (10:05 ET): Portland’s game last night (w/ Detroit), a 118-103 win, was the fourth Under for the team in its last five games. But the Blazers remain a very suspect team defensively (29th in number of points per possession allowed) and here they are matched up with a Miami team that’s gone Over in each of its last four games. Granted, not all of those Heat totals were very high. But neither in this one, especially if you look at it from Portland’s perspective. Number is too low. Go Over tonight. 

Miami has won five of six to move into the middle of the playoff pack in the Eastern Conference. Right now they are in 6th place, just one-half game behind Charlotte and Atlanta, who are tied for fourth. So this is an important game. When they hosted Portland last month, the Heat lost by a score of 125-122. That game saw them shoot 56% from the field and still LOSE. The teams combined to go 36 of 80 from three-point range, which they probably won’t do again. But remember we don’t need the game to be nearly that high-scoring to still cash this Over ticket. 

Portland is 6th in the Western Conference, but at 10 games above .500 they have a much better record than the Heat. Enes Kanter set a record with 30 rebounds in last night’s win, a nice “step up” performance with Jusuf Nurkic sidelined (Nurkic is expected to play tonight). But maybe the real key was holding the Pistons to 9 of 26 shooting from behind the arc, a percentage the Heat should easily eclipse tonight. With the Over 12-5 when Portland is in the second night of a back to back, this number just looks too low. 8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers

10* Under Pelicans/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): We’ve seen some uncharacteristic results from both of these teams lately. Cleveland, who is very bad, actually pulled off B2B wins earlier this week, beating both San Antonio and Oklahoma City on the road. Most shocking of all is how they did. The team that is dead last in the league in points per game (103.9) put up 125 and 129 in those two victories. Of course, they then proceeded to return to their losing ways last night, falling here at home to Toronto by a score of 135-115.

So it’s now four straight Overs for the Cavs, a sharp departure from what we’d seen from them the previous five games, all of which went Under. During that five-game stretch, they never topped 101 points and averaged only 90.8 PPG. As I stated earlier, this is the lowest scoring team in the league. So after beating their season average in points scored in three straight games, expect them to have an “off-shooting night” Sunday when they host the Pelicans, who held their previous opponent to only 94 points. 

That kind of defense was a bit of a radical departure for New Orleans. After all, they’d just given up 139 (to Brooklyn) the game before that. But by holding the 76ers to 94 in a much-needed win, the Pelicans are now “sniffing” the play-in spots for the Western Conference playoffs. They’ve topped 111 just once in the last five games though and my guess is they’ll keep the Cavs in check tonight. Look for this to be a relatively low-scoring game at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. The Under is 11-5 this season for Cleveland when the total is 220 or higher. 10* Under Pelicans/Cavaliers

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Phillies started the season by sweeping three games from the Braves (in Philadelphia). Now the Braves can return the favor here in Atlanta. The home team was an 8-1 winner on Friday, then 5-4 on Saturday. Atlanta has now won four straight since opening the year 0-4 and they’ve allowed four runs or fewer in six games this season. There wasn’t much scoring after the first inning yday, but Freddie Freeman was the difference with three RBIs including the game-winner in the 7th.

Drew Smyly will be making his first home start of the season for the Braves tonight. He went six innings and allowed just two runs on four hits his last time out. Unfortunately, the team lost that game 6-5 (to Washington) as the bullpen blew the lead. But Smyly had eight strikeouts and looked much better than Matt Moore did in his first start for the Phillies. Last Monday, Moore could make it only 3 ⅓ innings and had control issues (four walks). The Phils won that game 5-3, but they won’t win many Moore starts if he continues to pitch like that. 

The Atlanta bullpen has been outstanding so far, save for that game Smyly started. This is a battle of southpaw starters and that favors the Braves, who are 32-19 since the start of 2019 when facing a left-hander. Philadelphia is now 9-24 when priced between +125 and +175 on the road the L3 seasons. Atlanta is 43-18 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Look for the Braves to return the favor for the sweep earlier in the season. 10* Atlanta

10* Atalanta (2:45 ET): A huge 10-point gap exists between 7th and 8th place in the Serie A table. However, to me, the “real dividing line” is between 5th and 6th. The top five can all claim a vastly superior YTD goal differential compared to the rest of the field. Atalanta is among the top five, currently fourth, in what is shaping up to be a tight Champions League race (top four qualify). Atalanta’s domestic form has been strong of late as they come into Sunday having won six of their last seven Serie A fixtures.

Fiorentina is eight points clear of relegation, but sitting in 15th place there’s not much to play for the rest of the way. Finishing in the top half seems unlikely and recent form doesn’t suggest such a run is even conceivable at this point. The Tuscan side has picked up only five points from its last six matches. They’ve got just one win during that stretch, although they did play to a 1-1 draw with Genoa before the last International Break. Furthermore, Fiorentina has recorded the second fewest points against sides in the top half of the table this campaign. Only last place Crotone has fewer.

Atalanta won the reverse fixture 3-0 and is coming off another high-scoring effort, 3-2 over Udinese, which really wasn’t that close. With fifth place Napoli only two points back, Atalanta can’t afford a letdown here. Best case, they could move into third (past Juventus) with a win Sunday. They are tied w/ Juve for the second best GD in Serie A (+32) and I very much believe La Dea could end up finishing as high as second when all is said and done. They are tied with 1st place Inter for most goals scored this season (68). 10* Atalanta

8* Villareal (8:00 AM ET): The top four is probably out of reach for Villareal. However, they are still in a three-way tie for fifth. If they can finish in fifth, that still means European football next season (Europa League). Recent form has been great as they’ll be looking to make it seven straight wins across all competitions on Sunday. They are coming off a win in this year’s Europa League, 1-0 over Dinamo Zagreb Thursday, in the first leg of their quarterfinal tie. All signs point them getting the full three points here. 

Osasuna is at the other end of the La Liga table, just trying to avoid relegation. Currently, they are five points clear and in 14th place. Each of their last fixtures have ended 0-0. Those were against Getafe, Huesca and Real Valladolid, all fellow bottom half sides. Osasuna has actually gone four consecutive matches without scoring as they lost 2-0 to Barcelona prior to the three draws. Incredibly, they’ve scored just ONE goal in the previous six fixtures and there’s been just one time in the L10 they’ve scored more than one time. 

Only two sides have scored fewer goals this season than Osasuna’s 23. That’s across 29 matches, by the way. Villareal has scored 42, fifth most. The Yellow Submarine won the reverse fixture 3-1 back in December. They’ve conceded only twice during the six-match win streak. It’s an 8-2 scoring edge across the last three La Liga fixtures. 8* Villareal

10* Golden State (10:05 ET): I didn’t have many positive things to say about the Warriors when I faded them yesterday. Sure enough, they ended up losing outright (here at home) to the Wizards 110-107 as 4.5-point chalk. So why would I turn around 24 hours later and lay an even bigger number with the Dubs? Well, look at who they’re hosting. Houston also played last night and was a double digit loser to the Clippers (126-109). That was the Rockets’ 28th loss in their last 31 games. They’ve covered the spread only seven times during that stretch. 

In yday’s analysis, I mentioned that GS isn’t favored all that often. But the result against the Wizards aside, the Warriors usually win when laying points. They were 13-5 SU in the chalk role going into Friday. Now they have lost 8 of the last 10 games overall as they are fighting just to hold on to a spot in the “play-in” round of the postseason. Their lead over the 11th place Pelicans has dwindled to a single game. If Steph Curry and company don’t get this ship righted, then they could be the “odd team out.” 

Just last month, the Warriors beat the Rockets by 14 in Houston. They closed as 11-point favorites for the game, so this spread looks like a bargain by comparison. The Rockets were outscored 41-10 in the second quarter last night, which tells you all you need to know about what they are going through. Meanwhile, the Warriors were winning their game with less than 10 seconds remaining. I may not have trusted the Dubs last night, but I do here. 10* Golden State

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): In yesterday’s analysis (when I told you to take them), I talked about how the Giants’ pitching has been quite good so far this season. Sure enough, Friday starter Johnny Cueto stepped up and was one out shy of delivering a complete game. Cueto allowed just one run on four hits in his 8 ⅔ innings of work. While it took until the 7th inning for him to get any run support, San Fran did win the game 3-1. I expect them to win again Saturday, possibly by a much larger margin. 

It’s now six straight games where Giants’ pitching has allowed four runs or fewer. Trying to extend that streak to seven will be Saturday starter Logan Webb. While his first start of 2021 was hardly one of the best we’ve seen from the Giants’ rotation thus far, he did allow only three runs in 5 ⅓. The problem was that he got zero run support and thus it ended up being a 4-0 loss to Seattle. Something else I discussed in yday’s analysis was the Rockies’ perennial offensive decline away from home. Well, yesterday was their first road game and we all saw what happened. Webb should be fine here. 

It would be nice if the Giants could get their offense on track. Despite winning four of their last six games, they’ve topped three runs just one time in that stretch! On Saturday, they’ll be facing Chi Chi Gonzalez, who makes his first start of 2021 for the Rockies. His 2020 was not impressive. Over four outings, Gonzalez posted an 8.57 ERA and 1.757 WHIP. The two road starts were even worse (11.13 ERA, 2.297 WHIP). While Gonzalez didn’t factor into either decision, somehow the Rockies beat the Giants TWICE last year when he was on the mound. Don’t see it happening again. Colorado is only 42-70 L112 road games. Excluding ONE inning, Giants pitching has allowed all of 17 runs so far. 8* San Francisco

analysis soon

7* Over Makdessi/Bahamondes (2:10 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs) between John Makdessi (17-7 overall, 10-7 in UFC) and Ignacio Bahamondes, who is 11-3 overall and making his UFC debut. The fight takes place on the prelims and can be viewed on ESPN. I like for it to (likely) go to the scorecards, or at least get past the midway point of Round 3. Take the Over 2.5 rounds.

Makdessi has been in the UFC for just over a decade. He’s been used sparingly since 2016, but it is during that time he’s experienced his most success. He was actually on a nice 4-1 run before losing (by decision) to Francisco Trinaldo in March of last year. That was Makdessi’s fourth consecutive fight to go to the judge’s, so you can see why I like the Over here. (He won the previous three, for the record). Overall, 10 of his last 14 fights have gone to the cards.

Bahamondes is coming off a win in Dana White’s Contenders Series, a 2nd round KO of Edson Gomez back in December. Before that, he’d been involved in three consecutive decisions, two wins and one loss. I don’t think Makdessi is likely to take Bahamondes down, thus this fight is likely to be mostly standing. While that’s a little scary for betting the Over, I think much of the fight will be Makdessi respecting Bahamondes’ range (he’s 6’3”, which is tall for a lightweight), so there won’t be a ton of enthralling exchanges. 7* Over Makdessi/Bahamondes

8* Jack Shore (1:10 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Bantamweight Division (135 lbs) between the undefeated Jack Shore (13-0 overall, 2-0 UFC) and Hunter Azure (9-1, 2-1). It takes place on the prelims, which can be viewed on ESPN. 

The unbeaten Shore last fought in July when he defeated Aaron Phillips via rear-naked choke at 2:29 of the second round. It was his third straight win via rear-naked choke and what I really like is that all but one of his 13 career victories have come by stoppage, the rear-naked choke being the most frequent finish. While I can’t guarantee a quick finish here, look for Shore to assert himself late in the fight and at the very least win on the cards.

Azure sometimes gasses late in his fights and his defense is questionable. So that’s where I look for Shore to make his mark. Azure is coming off a decision win last September over Cole Smith, which was a nice rebound from his only career defeat, a second round KO at the hands of Brian Kelleher last May. But even in the decision win over Smith, you could see Azure getting tired late. It should be noted that the one loss came at featherweight. Still, I think Shore has the edge standing and certainly if it goes to the ground. 8* Jack Shore

10* Chelsea (12:30 ET): Fresh off an impressive win in the 1st leg of their Champions League quarterfinal, Chelsea will look to get back on track on the domestic side of things Saturday at Crystal Palace. The Blues currently sit in 5th place in the Premier League table, one point out of the top four. The reason they are no longer in the coveted top four is because of an absolutely embarrassing loss they took last weekend at the hands of bottom three West Brom. Based on what I saw Wednesday, I’m willing to chalk that up as an aberration and will call for them to get the full three points here against a side in the bottom half of the table. 

Crystal Palace is pretty safe when it comes to remaining in the English top flight for next season. They currently sit in 12th place and are 12 points clear of the relegation zone. However, only four clubs have a worse YTD goal differential than CP’s -16. They’ve won only one time in their last five matches, drawing three, including 1-1 against Everton on Monday. It’s a relatively short turnaround here for them, although not as short compared to Chelsea, who recorded its 2-0 win over FC Porto in the Champions League on Wednesday. 

Still, despite the shorter turnaround, Chelsea remains the clearly stronger side in this matchup. It’s not just that they’re chasing the top four, other sides such as Liverpool and Tottenham are hot on their heels. So a win here is a real must. They had no problem with Crystal Palace in the reverse fixture, winning 4-0 at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season. Only 1st place Man City has conceded fewer goals this campaign than Chelsea, so I’ll reiterate that the shocking loss (5-2!) to West Brom last week was a total aberration. 10* Chelsea

analysis soon

10* Over T’wolves/Celtics (7:35 ET): Boston has gone Under in each of its last seven games. However, a matchup with the team with the worst record in the NBA should result in them putting up a big number Friday. I believe it’s critical to note who the Celtics have faced recently. Their last game was against the Knicks, who have the league’s top scoring defense. Before that, it was the Sixers, who are #2 in defensive efficiency. So it’s not a surprise those games were low-scoring. This will be a much different story. 

Minnesota is off a 141-137 loss to Indiana, which is the exact opposite of “low-scoring.” It was not an overtime game either. Making matters more embarrassing for the T’wolves’ defensive effort is the fact the Pacers were short-handed, down FOUR starters including All-Star Domantas Sabonis. The Pacers’ bench scored 69 points in the game. They had 77 overall, a season-high, in the first half and opened up a 22-point lead. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised seeing as the T’wolves allow the third most points per game in the league? 

The last three Celtics-T’wolves encounters have all gone Over. The most recent was over a year ago and Boston won 127-117. Though their last two games were both low-scoring efforts, the Celtics did score 118 and 116 when they faced Houston and Charlotte the two games prior. I expect them to be in that range, if not higher, tonight. Boston isn’t exactly great defensively either as they allow just over 110 PPG. The Over is 8-3 in Minnesota’s L11 road games. 10* Over T’wolves/Celtics

10* San Francisco (4:35 ET): This series opener sets up well for the Giants. It’s their home opener. They also had Thursday (yesterday) off while the Rockies were busy entertaining the D’backs. While Colorado won yday’s game rather easily (7-3), it’s still a disadvantage when the other team is coming off an off-day. This will mark the Rockies’ 1st game outside of Coors Field this season and it’s certainly reasonable to expect their offensive production to dip dramatically, as it typically does every other season on the road. 

The Giants have started 3-3. They just took two of three from the heavily hyped Padres in San Diego. They did so despite never scoring more than three runs in any of the three games. That speaks to the pitching. I had them in Monday’s series opener. Note that SF has not allowed more than four runs in a game since Opening Day, a game which they blew a 6-1 lead and lost in extra innings. Take away the one disastrous six-run inning they allowed in that game and the Giants have allowed just 16 runs the rest of the year.

Johnny Cueto will start Friday’s game. Cueto went 5 ⅔ innings his first time out and allowed only three runs in a 6-3 win. He is 9-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 18 career starts vs. the Rockies. As per usual, Colorado’s offensive production dropped by a full run per game when on the road last season. They are just 42-69 away from Coors Field the L2 seasons. I don’t like starter Gomber either; he had seven walks in his first outing and gave up three runs in three innings. 10* San Francisco

10* Portland (10:05 ET): A REAL tough spot for Utah here. They just lost in overtime to Phoenix last night, which was a significant result as it shrank the Jazz’s lead atop the Western Conference to 1.5 games. Yes, Utah still has the best record in the NBA and this is only the second time they’ve been off B2B losses since early January. But laying this many points to a sneaky Portland team, even at home, seems like a tough ask. I’m taking the points in this one. 

The Blazers are currently sixth in the West, 10 games over .500 despite a slightly negative point differential for the season. Normally, I’d be looking to fade a team with that kind of resume, but the situation is favorable here and they are getting a lot of points. While Portland has suffered an alarming number of blowout losses this season, such as the 17-point one they took at the hands of the Clippers Tuesday, they are 16-8 ATS off an ATS loss. They have not suffered B2B double digit losses at any point this season. 

Furthermore, Portland has dropped B2B games only one time since the beginning of March. I realize Utah has won 22 straight home games, but this is one they can lose. Given that mentality, why wouldn’t you take the points? 10* Portland

8* Under Lakers/Heat (7:35 ET): This rematch from last year’s NBA Finals certainly lacks the luster of the six-game series in October or even the meeting the teams had back in late February. That’s owed to the fact LeBron James is M.I.A. as is Anthony Davis for the Lakers. The defending champs are actually 4-5 SU since James got hurt, which isn’t bad, but they’ve fallen into fifth place in the Western Conference. Miami enters this game in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, but with a much worse straight up record than the Lakers (Heat are 26-25, Lakers 32-19) 

The Heat have actually given up more points than they have scored this season. Things had been trending in a positive direction though. At least before they lost to Memphis 124-112 as 6.5-point favorites Tuesday night. Before that loss, the Heat had won four straight games while allowing only 96.25 PPG. They let the Grizzlies shoot 54.8%, offsetting their own 53.7% shooting. I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of shooting percentages in tonight’s game. 

Yes, this total is quite low. But it ought to be given how the Lakers’ season has gone. Tuesday’s 110-101 win over Toronto was only the second LA game to go Over since LeBron got hurt. The Lakers are 33-17 Under in all games this season, including 17-2 when facing a team that has a winning record (note: Toronto has a losing record). The problem (for the Lakers) is the fact they have the second lowest offensive efficiency in the league without James. 8* Under Lakers/Heat

8* Under D’backs/Rockies (3:10 ET): I tried with the Under here on Tuesday and caught a terrible break as the Rockies tied the game in the bottom of the ninth and then eight total runs were scored in extra innings. Last night was all about the Rockies ending a four-game losing streak with an 8-0 shutout. I’ll go back to the Under today as the only Arizona game to go Over in the L5 was the aforementioned series opener here. Thursday starter Merrill Kelly is 6-0 Under his L6 starts. 

The D’backs had scored just five runs before Tuesday’s game went into extra innings. That’s their highest producing nine-inning effort since the season opener, which they lost 8-7 at San Diego. Since that time, they’ve been held to three runs or fewer four times and shut out twice. As a team, they are batting only .216. CF Ketel Marte left yday’s game with an injury, so that’s one less hitter Rockies starter Jon Gray has to worry about. In his first start of 2021, Gray looked sharp as he held the Dodgers to one run on four hits in 5 IP. 

Kelly did not have a particularly effective first outing as he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs. Still, that game - a 4-2 D’backs loss - stayed Under the total. While Colorado is averaging 6.2 runs per game so far, they’re hitting a collective .228. So in the absence of better hitting, I expect the run production to start to decrease. Rockies’ hitters have struck out 20 times in this series and 16 runs on 19 hits seems like a bit of good fortune to me. Arizona is 26-8 Under after scoring two runs or less. 8* Under D’backs/Rockies

10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): I can’t say that I’m all that excited about the Hornets’ long-term prospects as they are dealing with multiple key injuries right now. Their YTD point differential and net efficiency rating (both negative) indicate that they’ve been a pretty clear overachiever to this point. But they are 5th in the Eastern Conference and you’ve got to give them credit for that. Tonight they are at Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team in even worse shape right now. I’ll lay the points! 

The Thunder have lost three in a row and it has been ugly. The three losses have all been by 24 points or more and they’re playing no defense with 132 or more points allowed in every game. They lost by 37 at Phoenix and 44 at Portland before losing by 24 at home to Detroit (who has the worst record in the Eastern Conference) on Monday. I had the Over in that game vs. the Pistons and OKC allowed Detroit to score a season-high 132 points. Like Charlotte, OKC is dealing with multiple absences from the rotation right now. 

Charlotte’s scoring average has come way down the L5 games as they are without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Malik Monk. But the Thunder’s woeful defense should allow for some significant improvement at the offensive end tonight. Meanwhile, I just don’t see much in the way of improvement coming for OKC as they’ve not only dropped three straight, but six of seven and 8 of 11. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS L4 as road favorites and 20-5-1 ATS L26 road games against teams with a losing home record. OKC is 9-16 SU at home. 10* Charlotte

8* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): The Phillies suffered their first loss of the season on Tuesday as they went down 8-4 at the hands of the Mets. They’d previously beaten NY 5-3 on Monday and swept the Braves to open 2021. Considering how tough the NL East is supposed to be, this is a pretty impressive start. The Phils can still notch a second series win if they come out ahead this afternoon and I think they will do just that behind starter Aaron Nola. 

The Mets won yday on the back of a pair of two-run homers as well as drawing eight walks. But don’t look for that to happen here against Nola, who has had their number in the past with an 8-2 record in 3.30 ERA in 16 career matchups. Nola also looked sharp on Opening Day when he tossed 6 ⅔ solid innings against the Braves. He allowed only two runs on six hits and finished with a 6-0 KW rate. Another encouraging sign for the Phillies so far in 2021 is that their bullpen appears to be much improved (save for yday). Last season, it was the worst in the league. But bullpen performance can fluctuate wildly from season-to-season, so the regression to the mean is not surprising.

Southpaw David Peterson makes his first start of the year for the Mets today. He had a pretty good rookie season in 2020, although not when he faced the Phillies as he gave up five runs in only two innings. He didn’t look very good in the Spring either. The fact that the Mets got eight runs yesterday despite only five hits was certainly unusual and owed to their patience at the plate (those eight walks). But I don’t see them having that kind of success vs. Nola. 8* Philadelphia

10* Bayern Munich (3:00 ET): So the big story heading into the 1st leg of this Champions League quarterfinal is that Bayern Munich, the reigning champions of Europe, will be without their best player Robert Lewandowski due to a strained knee ligament. Lewandowski’s absence from the pitch will certainly loom large here. However, as we’ve seen throughout their march to a 9th straight Bundesliga title, Bayern doesn’t necessarily NEED their best player to defeat a top European side. Over the weekend, minus Lewandowski, they defeated the second place team in the Bundesliga (RB Leipzig) by a score of 1-0. 

The recent form of Paris Saint-Germain, the perennial French powerhouse, has been a lot less inspiring. While Bayern Munich has won seven straight across all competitions - including a 6-2 aggregate over Lazio in the Champions League Round of 16 - PSG has been stumbling over in Ligue 1. They’ve failed to win three of their last five domestic fixtures and just took a 1-0 loss in their weekend showdown with Lille, thus ceding the top spot in the table. The shocking 4-1 win over Barcelona in the 1st leg of the Round of 16 here in the Champions League does deserve praise. But it also feels like an outlier performance. The second leg resulted in a 1-1 draw.

Bayern Munich doesn’t only dominate the Bundesliga. They are also on a 19-match unbeaten run here in the Champions League with 18 of those being victories (one draw). Of course, they defeated PSG in last year’s Final, 1-0. Considering Bayern has scored a goal in 63 consecutive matches, I say they find a way to score without Lewandowski on Wednesday. That they’ve kept two consecutive clean sheets may be more significant. PSG is also dealing with a couple key absences right now and I see Bayern taking this first leg at home, a place where they have not lost - to ANYONE - in over a year. 10* Bayern Munich

9* Under D’backs/Rockies (8:40 ET): This is the series opener. Betting the Under at Coors Field is typically not the “safest play,” but it’s early in the season and the respective hitters of both these teams are not exactly hitting the cover off the ball. Arizona’s first series of the year saw them go 1-3 vs. San Diego as they avoided a sweep with a 3-1 on Sunday. Colorado is also 1-3, but their win came on Opening Day. Even facing the Dodgers here at Coors, the last two games stayed Under the total. 

Arizona lost 8-7 on Opening Day and since then has done little scoring. They have just five runs the last three games, all of which stayed Under. The D’backs split 10 games with the Rockies last year, but did take three of the three here in Denver. They scored 32 runs in that series (Over was 3-0), but don’t look for anything of the sort here as Rockies starter German Marquez only gave up one run to the Dodgers in his first start (6 IP). There were control issues for Marquez, but that feels like an aberration. 

Luke Weaver will make his first 2021 start today for the Diamondbacks. He did not have a good 2020, so Coors Field may not seem like an ideal place for a turnaround. But the Rockies have managed only 11 hits their last two games combined. If four games vs. the Dodgers produced an average of “only” 11.7 rpg, then it stands to reason we should expect fewer here. The Under is 8-3-2 the L13 games played at Coors Field. 9* Under D’backs/Rockies

10* Under Pistons/Nuggets (9:05 ET): I had the Over in last night’s Pistons game, which was in Oklahoma City. They scored a shocking 132 points (new season-high), which was a sharp departure from their previous game when they lost by 44 at home to the Knicks. Now keep in mind that Oklahoma City is terrible. I don’t expect the Pistons to shoot 51.6% from the floor again when they face Denver tonight. In that loss to the Knicks, Detroit scored only 81 points (a season-low!).

The good news for the Pistons is that they’ve covered all three times they’ve been an underdog of at least 12.5 points this season. The bad news is they are 0-3 SU in those games. Denver is not a team you want to be facing right now as the Nuggets have won five in a row and moved past the depleted Lakers into fourth place in the Western Conference. During this five game win streak, the Nuggets have allowed an average of just 101.6 PPG. A head-scratching loss to Toronto, the Nuggets’ only defeat over the L7 games, is also the only time during that stretch they’ve surrendered more than 109 points to their opponents.

The fact that Denver plays at the second slowest pace in the league also helps our Under cause tonight. The Nuggets have shot better than 50% during the 5-game win streak, but that’s difficult to maintain. Detroit did hold OKC to 5 of 27 shooting from three-point range last night. 10* Under Pistons/Nuggets

8* Boston (7:35 ET): The 76ers have once again ceded the top spot in the Eastern Conference to the Nets. Brooklyn won last night while Philly lost by 16 at home to Memphis on Sunday. That was the fourth time they failed to cover in the last five games, a stretch where the only two SU wins have come against Cleveland and Minnesota - arguably the two worst teams in the entire NBA. Tonight the Sixers find themselves in Boston, facing a Celtics team that’s coming off B2B home victories. 

It was a very easy win for the Celtics on Sunday as they blew past injury-riddled Charlotte 116-86 as 9.5-point chalk. Six players, including the entire starting five, finished in double figures and the team made 21 three-pointers. It was also a solid effort at the defensive end, holding the Hornets to 40% overall, including 10 of 31 on 3PA. While only 7th in the East, Boston is only a game out of 4th place. You would assume they’re going to move up the standings before the playoffs begin. They cannot afford any kind of letdown. 

Adding to the motivation here is the fact this is a double revenge spot for the Celtics. They lost twice down in Philadelphia back in January. Each time they blew a halftime lead. Now the Sixers are without Joel Embiid (still) and he was the dominant presence on the court in those two January meetings. Philly actually trailed Memphis by 26 points heading into the fourth quarter Sunday (again, that was at home!) and they are not a particularly great road team (17-36-3 ATS L53). 8* Boston

10* Miami (6:40 ET): The Marlins dropped yday’s series opener to the Cardinals by a score of 4-1. Their offense has been scuffling to start the season, but should get back on track Tuesday as they are set to face John Gant, who has not started a game since 2018. Gant has made 81 appearances as a reliever the last two seasons and generally has been more effective in that role. As a starter, he’s just 6-10 w/ a 3.99 ERA. The Cardinals may have to rely more on their bullpen in this game and that group hasn’t been particularly effective (5.82 ERA) so far. 

Miami is 1-3, including a loss on Opening Day when they had tonight’s starter Sandy Alcantara on the mound. But don’t blame Alcantara for that one. He did his job, pitching six shutout innings of two-hit ball w/ seven strikeouts. The Marlins lost that game 1-0. Alcantara’s Opening Day performance came on the heels of a 2020 season where he posted a 3.00 ERA in seven starts. I am anticipating he’ll pitch well this evening. 

In the Marlins’ one victory this season, they scored 12 runs. Look for the offense to get back on track today. They have too many veteran hitters in the lineup to continue struggling at the plate like they did yesterday and on Opening Day. Cardinals’ pitching allowed 27 runs in the first three games of the season while their offense scored just one run after the first inning yesterday. I think this is a big win for the home team, who is 21-10 L31 as a favorite. 10* Miami

8* Run Line San Francisco (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I’m backing the Giants +1.5. Despite losing two of three to open the 2021 season and being shut out in the last game, the Giants should probably be 2-1. Opening Day in Seattle saw them blow a huge lead and lose by one run in extra innings. That despite allowing just five hits for the entire game. I’ll take a one run loss here, but also give the visitors a good shot at winning “outright.” 

San Diego is a much hyped team coming into this season. In the first series, they took three of four from Arizona. But they did lose yday, 4-1, thus denying them a sweep. Because of the hype, the Padres are going to see high money lines “like never before” (at least for them) and there are going to be times when there’s some significant value in fading them. This is one of those times as they start the unproven Adrian Morejon, who is only in the starting rotation right now due to an injury to Dinelson Lamet. In nine appearances (four starts) last year, Morejon had a 4.66 ERA and 1.241 WHIP.

I can’t say that Giants’ starter Anthony DeSclafani is going to be in the NL Cy Young mix this season as he’s coming off a fairly wretched 2020 campaign. However, with an improved change-up, he did look good in the Spring where his ERA was a solid 2.79. A bit of an edge for SF here is that they had Sunday off. They went 2-8 against the Padres last season, but four of those games were decided by one run. I’ll take that either way here. 8* San Francisco (+1.5)

10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga (9:20 ET): Baylor and Gonzaga were widely considered the two best teams in College Basketball all season long. So I’m glad we’ve got them matched up in Monday’s National Title Game. Unbeaten Gonzaga is the one who very nearly failed to “hold up their end of the bargain” as they needed overtime to defeat 11-seed UCLA in a game for the ages. Baylor had a much easier time Saturday as they blew out Houston 78-59, a game I’d rather not hear about again. 

Conventional wisdom seems to be that Baylor will be willing to play at Gonzaga’s preferred tempo. The Zags are 7th in the country in adjusted tempo and they lead the country in scoring at 91.6 PPG. However, they haven’t been able to hit that number in regulation in any of the L4 games. They shot 59.6% against Creighton and 58.7% against UCLA, percentages they won’t be able to match here against a longer and more athletic opponent. Baylor has held four of its five Tournament opponents to 63 points or less. That’s a very unrealistic number for this matchup, but they did hold Arkansas (who also likes to play fast) to 72 in the Elite Eight. 

This is a high total, even for Gonzaga, and certainly for a National Title Game. It should also be noted that Gonzaga held its first four Tournament opponents to 71 points or less. They are actually quite underrated defensively (8th in the country in efficiency). Baylor won’t shoot 52.7% from the field in this game like they did against Houston. This game may not stay Under by a lot, but I don’t see both teams scoring 80+ and that is likely what would be needed for an Over. 10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga

10* Over Pistons/Thunder (7:05 ET): Two teams coming off 40+ point losses on Saturday. OKC took its worst loss in franchise history (133-85) at the hands of Portland while Detroit suffered its worst loss in 27 years (125-81) and that was at home to the Knicks. There’s nothing positive I can say about either team right now and when it’s “bad vs. bad,” typically you don’t see a lot of defense being played. On the bright side, both teams are definitely going to score more points tonight than they did on Saturday. Take the Over.

The Thunder have lost five of six and their two losses to open April were by a combined 85 points. Not only did they just let Portland score 133, but Phoenix had just torched them for 140 (on 60.0% shooting) the night before. Three of the last four games have seen OKC surrender at least 127 points. While I can’t guarantee the defense will be THAT bad again tonight, I can say with virtual certainty that the Thunder should see a dramatic increase in their own scoring, compared to Saturday. They are averaging 107.1 PPG at home this season. 

Detroit has lost six of eight and remains in last place in the Eastern Conference. Losing by 44 at home is obviously inexcusable, but I will point out the Knicks do lead the league in scoring defense. OKC is at the opposite end of spectrum. The last three times the Pistons have been held below 100 points, they’ve come back to score 116, 111 and 118 in their next game. I see a similar number for them tonight. This number is lower than the average number of total points per game for both teams this season. 10* Over Pistons/Thunder

10* Over Royals/Indians (4:10 ET): This is the home opener for the team with the lowest payroll in MLB, Cleveland. The Indians began the 2021 season by losing the first two games at Detroit. They picked up their first win Sunday, 9-3. Kansas City’s first series was just the opposite. They took the first two games before losing yday. All three games with Texas went Over. The Royals scored 28 runs in three games, but also gave up 21. I see today’s game continuing the streak of Overs. 

The Indians are likely to struggle to score runs in 2021. But they busted loose for nine yday. Most of them (eight) came over the final four innings. Today they’ll face Danny Duffy, a southpaw that they’ve seen many times before. Duffy posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 11 starts last season. Only one of the 11 was a quality start as he rarely pitched a full six innings. Ironically, he pitched well against Cleveland twice. But the Over is 3-0-1 the last four times Duffy has started a series opener. The Over is also 5-0 L5 times he’s faced a team with a losing record. 

Starting here for Cleveland will be Logan Allen, who had an excellent Spring and is down 35 lbs. This is his first regular season start in over a year and half. It’s a tough matchup for him, facing a lineup that scored 25 runs in its first two games of the season. The Royals did strikeout 14 times Sunday and fell behind by 4+ for the third consecutive game. I think that will lead to them being MUCH more aggressive at the plate in this game, at least early on. 10* Over Royals/Indians

10* Over White Sox/Angels (8:37 ET): Twice the Angels have rallied to beat the White Sox. They got two runs in the bottom of the eighth in Thursday’s opener (won 4-3), then scored three times in the bottom of the eighth to win 5-3 last night. In between, they lost the middle game 12-8. While things may not get that high scoring tonight on Sunday Night Baseball, I am expecting the Over to cash. We’ve seen a total of 35 runs scored in the three games thus far with teams also combining for 51 hits. 

The “attraction” for this game is  that Angels’ starter Shohei Ohtani will also be coming up to bat. Not only that, he’ll be hitting second in the lineup. This is the first time Ohtani has ever started and hit in the same MLB game. He also played yesterday, going 1 for 4 at the plate. I’m curious as to how this will affect his pitching Sunday night. He was not particularly good (on the mound) in Spring Training as he posted a 12.19 ERA in 10 ⅓ IP. He’ll have to deal with the red hot Yermin Mercedes, who is 8 for 9 at the plate this season for Chicago. 

Having led going into the 8th inning in every game this season, the White Sox have to be “kicking themselves” for only being 1-2. The offense, averaging 6.0 rpg, has obviously been fine. But I’m not looking for much here from starter Dylan Cease, who had a 4.01 ERA in 12 starts last year. In two prior starts vs. the Angels, Cease’s ERA is 6.48. The Over is 7-4 in his L11 starts. The Over is also 7-2 in the White Sox last nine games here in Anaheim, so I look for this to sneak Over the key number of 9. 10* Over White Sox/Angels

10* Under Lakers/Clippers (3:30 ET): We all know about the Lakers’ current plight. But playing without both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, things actually haven’t been THAT bad as the team’s record is 3-5 SU since the James ankle injury. They did win 114-94 in Sacramento Friday night. It’s actually the Clippers that come in off B2B losses (one to Orlando!) and in both games they were held below 100 points. I look for this Sunday matinee to be lower-scoring than expected and thus Under is the call here. 

The Clippers can be an absolutely maddening team. Before the B2B losses, both of which were here at home, they’d won six in a row. Defense hasn’t really been a problem for them. Over the L10 games they’ve held every opponent to 112 points or less, including 105 or less eight times. But the Clips shot 41% against both the Magic & Nuggets and that’s a big reason why they lost those two games. Rajon Rondo is set to debut this afternoon, but I don’t think that will be much of a boon offensively. 

The Clippers never led against Denver Thursday night, losing 101-94. They let the Nuggets shoot 52% from three-point range, something I don’t think will happen here with the Lakers. The Lakers haven’t shot better than 48% (overall) in any game since James got hurt. Six times they’ve been held below 44%. But, like the Clippers, their play at the defensive end has been admirable. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and even without James & Davis, they’ve held three of their last four opponents to 94 points or less. Eight of their last nine games have gone Under, including five straight. The Under is 16-2 this season when the Lakers face a team with a winning record. 10* Under Lakers/Clippers

8* Boston (1:10 ET): The Red Sox certainly did not expect to be swept in their first series of the season. But that’s on the verge of happening here. Considering how Baltimore was viewed coming into 2021, it would be quite embarrassing for the home team to drop three in a row at Fenway Park. Thursday’s opener was rained out and then Boston managed very little offense in the two games that were played. They’ve scored a grand total of two runs so far on only nine hits. 

It’s not as if the Red Sox didn’t have their chances yesterday. They were 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position though and that killed any hope of victory. Friday, they had no answers at the plate for Orioles’ starter John Means. Defensive issues have hurt the Red Sox in both games. But I believe they’ll bounce back and avoid the sweep Sunday. It boils down to having little to no confidence in a Baltimore team that is projected to finish with the fewest wins in the American League this season.

Boston will send Garrett Richards to the mound today. The veteran had an “up and down” 2020 for San Diego, but the Padres ended up winning his final three starts for them. It’s not as if the Orioles have produced much offense in the first two games, so this is somewhat of an “ideal” first start for Richards in a Red Sox uniform. Baltimore counters with Bruce Zimmerman, who has just two career big-league starts. One was a win against the Red Sox. However, I’m “hanging my hat” on the fact Boston is 37-14 after losing the first two games of a series. 8* Boston

10* Tottenham Hotspur (9:05 ET): Two weeks ago, before the international break, the Spurs were victorious against Aston Villa. That 2-0 clean sheet vaulted them into sixth in the Premier League table, three points back of Champions League qualification. They are now down in seventh after Liverpool won Saturday, but not all yday’s news was bad as 4th place Chelsea suffered a shock 5-2 defeat at the hands of West Brom. Therefore a win here and Tottenham could still move into a fourth place tie with the Blues. I think they will get the full three (points) here against a Newcastle side that’s in really poor form right now. 

With an embarrassing exit from the Europa League, Tottenham’s only path to next season’s UEFA Champions League is to finish in the top four here in the EPL. Including the 2-0 win over Aston Villa, the Spurs have won four of their last five Premier League matches and boast a YTD goal differential (+19) that suggests they belong in the conversation to finish in the top four. They are certainly in a better place than Newcastle United, who is down in 17th place and just two points clear of safety. 

The Magpies’ YTD goal differential is -20, third worst in the league. They flashed arguably the worst form of anyone in the English top flight, going back to December 12th. Since that time, their 11 points are the fewest of any EPL side. They are also winless in their L6 matches. The upcoming run of fixtures looks daunting and they finish against Fulham, a match which ultimately may decide who gets relegated and who stays in the top flight. Newcastle was beaten 3-0 (by Brighton & Hove Albion) its last time out and has scored only three goals during its six-match winless run. 10* Tottenham Hotspur

10* Under Bucks/Kings (10:05 ET): Both teams are in the second night of a back to back, but that’s where the similarities end. Milwaukee was a 127-109 winner in Portland last night while Sacramento lost 115-94 here at home to the Lakers. For the Bucks, last night was their second straight win after suffering three straight losses. For the Kings, last night was a second straight loss after a five-game win streak. 

The Bucks have shot well each of the last two games. They were 53.2% from the field against the Lakers on Wednesday, then 54.4% against the Blazers last night. A third straight game with that high of a field goal percentage seems unlikely, even though they are facing the Kings, who are not good defensively. Giannis Antetokounmpo was 18 for 18 on two-point attempts last night and scored 47 points. No way he repeats that performance. I do think the Bucks can maintain their recent defensive efforts though. They held the Lakers to a 40.2 FG% and Portland to 36.4. 

Sacramento has shot 42.4% each of the L2 games. Their two best players - De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield - combined to go 1 for 13 from three-point range last night as the team was held under 100 points for just the second time this season. While you can argue a bit of an offensive bounce back is in order, this O/U line is really high and these teams are “due” for an Under after all of their 16 meetings have gone Over! The Bucks are 5-1 Under playing in the second night of a back to back as well.  10* Under Bucks/Kings

10* Under Twins/Brewers (7:10 ET): These teams combined for 11 runs on Opening Day, but let’s not look past the fact that the game went to extra innings after Milwaukee scored three in the bottom half of the ninth. New Twins closer Alex Colome had an auspicious debut to say the least. After the teams had an off-day, I am looking for fewer runs to be scored here on Saturday night as we’ve got two solid starters on the mound and the bullpen issue probably won’t be repeated. 

Though they were well-positioned to win Thursday, the Twins did strike out 17 times. I expect them to struggle to make contact here against Corbin Burnes, who finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting last season for Milwaukee. Burnes went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA in 2020 and never allowed more than 3 ER in any of his nine starts. He allowed 1 ER in seven of the nine! There were three starts where he finished with at least 10 strikeouts, so Burnes has to like what he saw Thursday. The Under was 3-0 his L3 starts of 2020.

Starting opposite Burnes will be Jose Berrios, an All-Star in both 2018 and ‘19 for Minnesota. Though 2020 was perceived as a “step back” for the right-hander, his fastball was regularly hitting 97.5 MPH in Spring Training, so he seems poised to regain the form we saw the previous two seasons. Manager Rocco Baldelli said “Jose is in a fantastic spot physically.” The Under was 8-4-1 in all Berrios’ starts LY and he only gave up eight home runs. For Milwaukee, Burnes allowed only ONE HR in nine outings! 10* Under Twins/Brewers

10* Houston (5:14 ET): The National Semifinal that will have more intrigue (regarding the outcome) is an all-Texas affair between Baylor (1-seed from the South Region) and Houston (2-seed from the Midwest Region). I had both teams getting here, so this matchup is not a surprise. Much will be made of the fact that Houston did not have to defeat a team seeded higher than 10th in any of the first four rounds. But it would be quite foolish to undersell this squad. They have won 11 consecutive games with seven of those victories coming by a margin of 16 points or more. This will be just the second time all season the Cougars are underdogs. The first was all the way back on 11/29 vs. Texas Tech and they won that game 64-53 as three-point pups. 

Houston’s calling card remains their defense. They are #2 in the country in points per game allowed (57.6). None of the other teams in the Final Four rank higher than 62nd in PPG allowed. The Cougars are also #1 in the country in field goal percentage defense. Opponents have shot just 37.3% against them this season. In the four tournament wins, they’ve allowed an average of only 55.75 PPG. There have been only two times during the 11-game win streak that they allowed more than 61 points. Both were against Memphis. Simply put, when you’re not giving up many points, more often than not you will win. In this case, Houston is GETTING points. 

The key here (for me) is that Houston is a perfect 10-0 SU/9-0-1 ATS coming off an ATS loss. They probably “should” have covered for us vs. Oregon State in the Elite 8 as they led 34-17 at halftime. But they let the lead shrink in the 2H, then allowed a “meaningless” three-pointer in the closing seconds to blow the cover. I told you to take the Cougars the last time they were off an ATS loss (this was in the Sweet 16 vs. Syracuse) and they won that game by 16 points. Coming off an ATS loss this year, UH has won all ten times by an average of 28.1 PPG! Absolutely take the points here. 10* Houston

8* Under Houston/Baylor (5:14 ET): We had the Over in Baylor’s 81-72 win over Arkansas in the Elite 8. That play cashed as it ended up being - rather easily - the Bears’ highest scoring game of the Tournament. That shouldn’t be a surprise, not because I had the Over, but rather due to the pace Arkansas plays at. The Razorbacks were a top 20 team nationally in adjusted tempo, a far cry from Baylor’s previous two opponents. Like the dispatched Wisconsin and Villanova, Houston plays at one of the slowest adjusted tempos in the country. Thus I’m pivoting to the Under for this Final Four matchup. 

It’s not just Houston’s tempo that has me on the Under here. The Cougars are #2 in the country in scoring defense (57.6 PPG allowed) and #1 in opposing FG% (37.3). The fact they’ve advanced despite not scoring more than 67 points in any of the L3 games should tell you all you need to know about their defense. In four Tournament games, the Cougars have allowed an average of only 55.75 PPG. The most points they’ve given up in any of the four games is 61. The Under is 3-0 the L3 games.

Baylor is 7-2 Over its L9 games, however they allowed just 55, 63 and 51 points in the three games prior to facing Arkansas. They scored 46 points in the 1H of the Arkansas game, which is a lot, and also shot 53.3% for the game from three-point range. Don’t see them matching those kinds of numbers on Saturday, even if they are #1 in the country from three-point range. Houston is allowing just 28.3% shooting from behind the arc this season. Baylor can take solace in the fact Houston shot just 32.3% against Oregon State. Three of the Bears’ four Tourney opponents have shot worse than 28% from distance. 8* Under Houston/Baylor

7* VfL Wolfsburg (9:30 AM ET): With an eight-point cushion between them and fifth place, third place Wolfsburg (51 points) should feel pretty comfortable about its chances of qualifying for next season’s Champions League. As the 4th (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 5th (Borussia Dortmund) place teams face off on the pitch Saturday, this match with a FC Koln side struggling to avoid relegation looks to be an ideal opportunity to pick up three points and further widen the gap they already enjoy. 

Wolfsburg has conceded the second fewest number of times (22) this season in the Bundesliga. Before the International Break, they defeated Werder Bremen 2-1 for their eighth win in the last 10 league matches. They’ve not conceded any goals in 9 of their last 12 across all competitions, which is obviously impressive. When you consider Koln has scored the third fewest number of goals in the league this season, it seems reasonable to think they may not even score here. Wolfsburg has scored at least once in every match since Jan 3. 

Koln is currently in 16th place with 23 points. That would mean the relegation playoff against whoever finishes third in the Bundesliga 2, but even worse would be slipping down to 17th, which would mean automatic relegation. They are only one point ahead of Arminia Bielefeld and one behind Hertha Berlin and Mainz, so there’s obviously no reason for Koln NOT to be motivated here. But motivation alone can’t carry the day. With the second fewest wins (5) in the Bundesliga, things look grim. 7* VfL Wolfsburg

9* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners stunned the Giants last night with a six-run rally in the eighth and then won the game 8-7, in 10 innings. It was a walk-off walk that got them the victory, perhaps an apropos way to win a game where they had only five hits (yet scored eight runs). As strange and as fortunate a win as that was, I’m on the M’s tonight as that was a very difficult Opening Day loss for a Giants team that I don’t think is going to be very good. 

As you likely know, a massive gap exists between the top two and bottom three in the NL West this season. The Giants find themselves on the WRONG side of that gap and the best they can hope for in 2021 is a distant third-place finish behind the Dodgers and Padres. They’ll turn to Johnny Cueto for the second game of the season. Cueto’s best days are clearly behind him. He enters his sixth season with the Giants having posted a 5.40 ERA in 2020 and he looked REAL shaky in Spring Training with a 9.82 ERA in three starts. 

Yusei Kikuchi gets the nod here for Seattle. Originally it was going to be James Paxton, but he’s been bumped back in the six-man rotation. The Giants have never faced Kikuchi, an advantage for the pitcher, and he’s off a fairly solid Spring where he allowed only three runs in 8 ⅓ innings of work. Obviously, last night’s effort by the Giants’ bullpen was not inspiring and it’s highly unlikely that they’ll hit 4 HR’s (all solo) again like they did yday. 9* Seattle