8* Nevada (11:00 ET): It’s been a tough run for the Wolf Pack as of late, particularly at the betting window. This team hasn’t covered a spread since November, although that’s a little misleading as they only played three games in December. One of those was not lined (against MN-Duluth), but it’s still an 0-6 ATS run heading into Friday. Nevada is 3-3 straight up in those six games, alternating wins and losses along the way. They are off a loss here, 77-67 to Wyoming, so if the pattern holds that means they are set to get back in the win column. A win would almost certainly mean a cover. That’s what I’m banking on here. 

Now Fresno State comes into Reno on a bit of a run. The Bulldogs have won and covered three straight, beating San Jose State, UNLV and Utah State, all as a favorite. FSU is 12-4 ATS on the year, which is one of the best cover rates in the country, but Nevada is an opponent that has given them all sorts of trouble through the years. The last eight head to head meetings have all been won by the Wolf Pack, including two double digit decisions here in Reno last season. 

Now it was a home loss for Nevada last time out. It was close most of the way vs. Wyoming, but things got away from the Wolf Pack down the stretch. The final margin was the most they trailed by the entire game. I see this team being eager to not lose two in a row at home. They’ve got the oddsmakers’ respect being favored against Wyoming and Fresno State, two of the four Mountain West teams that are 13-4 SU or better. That’s probably because all four of FSU’s losses this season have come on the road where they are averaging only 62.9 PPG. 8* Nevada

10* Denver (9:05 ET): Memphis hasn’t lost B2B games since a three-game losing streak right before X-Mas. Since that three-game slide, they’ve won 12 of their last 14 games and now have a rather ridiculous 22-6 SU record over their last 28 games. But they have been blown out two of the last three times they’ve taken the court, including 126-114 at Milwaukee on Wednesday. I’ll call for them to lose B2B games - for the first time in almost a month - as they visit Denver tonight, short-handed. 

The Grizzlies likely will not have two of their top three scorers for this game. Dillon Brooks is out with an injured ankle while Desmond Bane is in health and safety protocol. That’s a tough break when getting set to face a Nuggets team that has scored 130 (or more) points in three of its last four contests. Now the last game saw Denver have to go to OT to beat the Clippers, but they got a triple double from MVP Nikola Jokic, who had 49 points. As the season progresses, expect the Nuggets to solidify themselves as a top six team in the West. 

Memphis is 14-7 SU on the road thus far, but their point differential indicates that might be a fortunate mark. They’re only scoring 0.4 PPG more than they allow away from home. This is a big double revenge game for Denver as they’ve lost twice at Memphis this season, including by just two points in the last meeting. Both those games were in early November. It’s not just two of the top three scorers that are out for the Grizzlies, three other players are in protocol as well. Look for the revenge-minded Nuggets to take advantage. 10* Denver

8* Under Michigan State/Wisconsin (9:00 ET): I happen to think both of these teams are slightly overrated. Do they belong in the Top 25? Yes. But not top 15 and in the case of Wisconsin, definitely not top 10. Despite losing last night, Purdue remains the favorite in the Big 10. As for who is the second best team in the conference, I’d point to another team that is in action tonight, that being Illinois. 

But now to the game that’s taking place tonight. Wisconsin is on two separate seven-game streaks right now. Not only have they won seven in a row, all seven wins have gone Over the total. (They’ve also covered the spread in five straight). I think the O/U streak is the one more likely to be snapped tonight. While this O/U is in line with most recent games, the Badgers probably won’t shoot as well here as they did Tuesday at Northwestern (51.9%). They scored 41 points in each half. 

Michigan State hasn’t played since Saturday when they saw their nine-game win streak come to an end, 64-62 at the hands of Northwestern. The Spartans lost despite holding N’western to 34.8% shooting. It was the second straight game decided by two points for Sparty. Previously, they’d beaten Minnesota 71-69. They hold teams to just 65.6 PPG and 29% from behind the three-point arc. Wisconsin doesn’t turn the ball over much (fewest in the country!), but has also been LIVING at the free throw line, which may not continue. 8* Under Michigan State/Wisconsin

10* Oral Roberts (8:00 ET): Oral Roberts is looking to keep pace with South Dakota State (who handed them their lone conference loss) in the Summit League. The Eagles are flying high with a 6-1 SU conference record and have won five straight since going down 82-76 at SDSU back on December 22nd (did cover as 9-point underdogs). It’s a fairly easy matchup on the docket for Thursday, one that I believe ORU is going to win in blowout fashion. 

North Dakota is at the opposite end of the Summit League spectrum right now. The Fighting Hawks are 0-5 SU in conference play and 4-14 SU overall this season. Things have been pretty ugly for some time now as they’ve dropped 13 of the last 15 games and both wins were against non-DI opponents. The last time ND won a game was December 14th. Their eight road games have all resulted in defeat, by an average of almost 20 PPG. They’ve covered the spread in just one of them. This promises to be one of the toughest road trips of the season. 

Oral Roberts has covered seven of its last eight games. They have dominated at home this season, averaging 90.7 PPG while allowing only 59.4. I expect the margin of victory tonight to approach 30 points. The Eagles are shooting above 44% from three at home while allowing opponents to shoot just 27.1%. North Dakota is getting torched on the defensive end with the first five conference opponents shooting better than 50%.. The Fighting Hawks are 24-47 ATS their L71 games, including 9-29 on the road. 10* Oral Roberts

10* Over Suns/Mavericks (7:35 ET): Two hot teams meet in Dallas, on TNT, tonight. The Suns are looking to complete a perfect 5-0 road trip while the Mavs have won three straight at home and four in a row overall. While Dallas has been playing excellent defense of late, evident by the fact the Under has hit in 11 of their last 12 games including each of the last six, keeping Phoenix in check will be a tall order. 

Over their last three games, the league-leading Suns have won by an average of 19.7 points. Devin Booker is leading the charge by scoring 37.7 PPG in those L3 wins and he turned in a season-high 48 in the 121-107 win at San Antonio on Monday. Do note that Phoenix trailed going into the 4Q of that last game, but was able to hold the Spurs to just 16 points over the last 12 minutes. Don’t think they’re going to be able to do that again, although from the Suns’ perspective it may not matter if they continue scoring the way they have. They are averaging 112.5 PPG for the season. 

Dallas held Toronto to 38.5% shooting, including 8 of 32 from three-point range, in the last game. There’s virtually no shot they can keep the Suns in check to that degree. It's the combination of defensive efficiency and slow pace that has led to the recent rash of Unders for the Mavs, but eventually one of these games is going to go Over and I think they’ve got the right “dance partner” tonight. Dallas has also shot VERY poorly from three-point range in its last five games, which I feel is going to change. 10* Over Suns/Mavericks

8* Georgetown (5:00 ET): Things have gone rather poorly for the Hoyas of late. They’ve lost four in a row, including three straight by double digits to open Big East play. COVID-19 has certainly played a significant role with even HC Patrick Ewing having to miss games. Ewing is expected back on the bench tonight though and I’m expecting a bit of an inspired effort. It also helps that G’town is facing an opponent that’s also been in a battle with COVID, causing them to be inactive for nearly two weeks. 

That would be Providence, a team who I already felt was overrated and not worthy of being ranked in the Top 25. The Friars have the #1 “luck rating” (per KenPom) in the country this season. Their record is 14-2 and they are ranked #21 in the country coming into this game. However, my power ratings don’t even think of them as a top 45 team. After a 12-day layoff, expect the Friars to struggle a bit here, especially at the outset. 

Earlier this month, before their COVID pause, I played against Providence twice. The first play went even better than expected as the Friars got destroyed by Marquette, 88-56, thus proving my point about them being overrated. Two days later, they bounced back with an 83-73 win over St. John’s (at home), but note they were down at halftime in that one. Georgetown is desperate and with Providence coming off such an extended (unplanned) layoff, I’m taking the points. 8* Georgetown

8* Villanova (8:00 ET): This pains me a bit as Marquette treated me so nicely in convincing victories over Providence (88-56) and Georgetown (92-64) earlier this month. The Golden Eagles have now won four in a row after home wins over DePaul and Seton Hall in the L10 days. But they’re running into an even hotter - and better - squad this evening. Villanova is currently ranked #11 in the country and probably ought to be even higher. Both KenPom and my own power ratings have the Wildcats as a top five team. 

‘Nova certainly looked like a Top 5 team on Sunday when they blasted Butler for a 40-point win. That was the Wildcats’ sixth consecutive victory, four of those coming by 15 points or greater. The 82-42 beatdown of Butler tied their largest MOV for the season, matching what they did all the way back in the very first game (beat Mount St. Mary’s 91-51). Jay Wright’s team shot almost 60% overall from the floor on Sunday and was 12 of 19 from three-point range. 

 Now you may be thinking it will be difficult to repeat that kind of performance. That’s true, but we also don’t need a 40-point win here. Villanova is 6-0 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 29.1 PPG though! Marquette had some shooting issues in the 2H vs. Seton Hall on Saturday, a game they won by a single point on a late free throw. The ultra-slow tempo that Nova likes to play at will bother the Golden Eagles here. As good as they’ve looked recently, Marquette is still not a Top 40 team in the country. 8* Villanova

10* Brooklyn (7:10 ET): I gotta believe this is where the Nets get back on track. I know that they are without Kevin Durant for the time being, but James Harden is still here and because tonight is a road game, that means Kyrie Irving is eligible to play. The Nets have been better this season on the road anyway, sporting a 15-5 SU record (as opposed to only 12-11 SU at home). They did lose in Cleveland on Monday, but have won four straight off a SU loss. Take the points.

This play is also guided by the fact I’m not a big believer in the Wizards, who I think could fall out of the top ten in the Eastern Conference by season’s end. Propping the Wizards up so far is an extremely fortunate 8-2 SU record in games decided by three points or less. That’s the most “close wins” in the league right now. In fact, no other team has more than five. The Wiz are also 3-0 SU in OT games this season. Now I’ll give them some credit for an impressive 117-98 beatdown of Philadelphia the other night. But before that, Washington had failed to cover six straight games. Five of those ATS losses were as favorites.

Brooklyn has also struggled at the betting window this month, going just 2-9 ATS their L11 games. So something will have to “give” in that regard tonight. I just find it hard to believe, that with Harden and Irving in the lineup, that the Nets are underdogs to a team like the Wizards, who have the third worst point differential and fourth worst net efficiency in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is 4-2 SU/ATS as an underdog this year. 10* Brooklyn

10* Navy (7:00 ET): Navy will look to continue its mastery of Lehigh as it looks to stay atop the Patriot League standings after tonight. The Midshipmen come in sporting a 5-1 SU conference record, tied with Loyola MD for first place. All the Patriot League teams are in action Wednesday, including Loyola, who is also at home against Boston U. Of the co-leaders, the Middies have the easier matchup. They are 4-0 SU/ATS the L2 seasons against Lehigh, who comes in at just 6-12 SU overall on the year. 

Now Lehigh has been a bit pesky as an underdog this season, covering all four times the oddsmakers have given them 12.5 or more points. But the Mountain Hawks also lost all four of those games - to Rutgers, Virginia, Maryland and Yale - three of them by double digits. There was a 4-1 run to open conference play, including a rather shocking 97-64 win at Bucknell (as 3.5-point underdog), however Lehigh then “came back down to Earth” on Sunday, losing at Loyola MD by 12 as a two-point home dog. 

Navy is only 4-3 SU at home in 2021-22, which is somewhat surprising. Their lone conference loss did occur here in Annapolis, 69-50 to Colgate, just last Thursday. But the Midshipmen quickly responded by sinking Boston U on the road, 72-65, on Sunday. I can’t see them dropping B2B home games in league play. This Navy team plays solid defense as it gives up only 59.9 PPG. They are 9-2 ATS when favored this season and 27-10 ATS in the chalk role the L3 seasons. This number should be closer to -20. 10* Navy

8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): While I don’t think UNC Asheville is going to win the Big South this year, the Bulldogs can certainly still be a “player” in the mix. But first they’ll need to get back on track after suffering a couple of close defeats. The previous seven days brought heartbreak against both Winthrop and USC Upstate as Asheville lost those respective games in overtime and in the closing seconds. They were 8.5 point favorites here at home against USC Upstate on Saturday. I can’t see B2B losses as home chalk. 

Against Winthrop, the Bulldogs had a decided edge in three-point shooting, but couldn’t stop the Eagles from inside the arc. Winthrop went a somewhat insane 31 of 49 on 2PA in that game. Then against USC Upstate, it was three-point shooting that killed Asheville. They let the opponents hit 60% from behind the arc while only hitting 15% themselves. I’m definitely sensing there will be a “reversal” in shooting percentage tonight as the Bulldogs face a team that’s shooting just 42.5% overall for the season, including 31.3% from three. 

North Carolina A&T had won four straight before running into High Point on Saturday. That 78-71 loss was the Aggies’ first setback in league play thus far. But this team is just 2-8 SU in “true” road games as well as 2-8 SU as an underdog. This line looks a bit “short,” doesn’t it? UNC Asheville is allowing only 59.4 PPG and 26.7% shooting from three this season at home, where it is 7-2 SU. The gap between these teams is bigger than what this number reflects. 8* UNC Asheville

9* Tottenham (2:30 ET): Tottenham Hotspur has not tasted defeat since Antonio Conte took over, but they’ve also failed to produce B2B EPL wins during their new boss’ tenure. One would have to go all the way back to New Year’s Day to find the last time the Spurs played a Premier League fixture. That was a 1-0 win over Watford. Since that time, they’ve been ousted from the Carabao Cup by Chelsea and also progressed in the FA Cup. The club was not happy with Sunday’s derby vs. Arsenal being postponed (COVID) but I think this midweek clash is a wonderful opportunity to make a statement.

The Spurs are currently just four points off the top four in the table. Even better for them is that they have played at least two fewer matches than all the sides they are chasing. A win here would mean passing Arsenal into fifth place. Everyone in the top four has played at least 21 matches this season (Tottenham has played only 18), so there is still plenty of time to track down that fourth Champions League spot, currently held by West Ham. With a fixture against top three Chelsea looming this weekend, I think it’s paramount for the Spurs to pick up the full three points on Wednesday.

Leicester City is down in 10th place, which doesn’t sound that far back of where Tottenham is, but there is an eight point gap between the two sides, who have played the exact same number of matches. Leicester hasn’t played a league match since late December with the lone time on the pitch in January being a 4-1 win over Watford in the FA Cup. So there’s a good chance the Foxes will be rusty here. No team outside the bottom six has conceded more goals and xG says they are a little fortunate to have scored 31 times this campaign. Leicester is also bottom five in xPts. All things considered, this is a solid price to take Tottenham. 9* Tottenham

8* Houston (8:00 ET): Houston, who was in the Final Four last season, is a team I believe should have been in the Top 10 long ago. They’re finally there after seven straight wins, most of which have been by double digits. But the Cougars did survive a close one Saturday at Tulsa, holding on for a two-point win as 11-point favorites. Injuries continue to mount for Kelvin Sampson’s team, but note they were up 17 at the half on Tulsa. Here they face a team that just beat by 17 on the road earlier this month. 

Including the one vs. Houston, South Florida had lost its first three conference games by an average of just over 14 PPG. But the Bulls then pulled off a somewhat shocking result on Saturday, beating UCF 75-51 as an eight-point dog. But that was at home and the opponent had an absolutely miserable shooting night, making only 33.3% for the game including 2 of 20 from three-point range. That led to USF’s biggest margin of victory over UCF in seven years. The other key was a near 2:1 rebounding edge (53-26). 

All of the Bulls’ victories this season have come when they have an edge on the boards. That is unlikely to happen tonight as Houston typically controls the glass and will be using a larger lineup due to the injuries in the backcourt. The Cougars are 9-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average of almost 30 PPG. USF is shooting just 38.4% for the season and can’t count on UH shooting the ball as poorly as UCF did. The Cougars have won all five meetings the L3 seasons, four of them by 17+ points. 8* Houston

8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): UConn has (finally) cracked the Top 25 this week, but this is a team I’ve considered “worthy of being ranked” for some time now. The Huskies are actually 15th in my own personal power ratings. Were they a bit fortunate to get by St. John’s, in overtime, last Wednesday? Yes, they were. They tied the game on a foul shot with just 1.3 seconds left in regulation. But it was also a much-deserved result following close losses to Providence and Seton Hall. 

UConn has already played four OT games this season. After some postponements around the holiday, each of the L2 games have required “extra time.” But this one won’t as the Huskies host a Butler team that’s coming off a 40-point loss at Villanova on Sunday. UConn has been excellent in Storrs this season, going 7-1 and outscoring teams by almost 26 PPG. Their overall scoring margin for the season (+15.1 PPG) ranks 17th nationally and they are averaging 80.3 PPG, which is 24th. 

UConn had another postponement on Saturday as they were set to face Providence. So the schedule sets up quite nicely for them here. They’ve been off for five days while Butler is playing its third road game in five days and second in the last 72 hours. While Sunday was their worst loss of the season, the Bulldogs have been getting blown out regularly. Six times they’ve been beaten by at least 15 points. Tonight figures to add to that list. Rebounding has been a major concern thus far for Butler and UConn is strong on the boards. 8* Connecticut

10* Eastern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Eastern Kentucky’s maiden season in the Atlantic Sun Conference (they were formerly in the Ohio Valley Conference) has gotten off to a bit of a rocky start. The Colonels are 0-4 SU/ATS in league play and what’s shocking about that is the fact they were favored in all four games! Almost every game has been close and tonight is a spot where I figure EKU is set to get back on track. They are hosting a Lipscomb team that’s lost three in a row and is just 8-11 SU on the season. 

Now EKU is only 8-10 SU, but this number set by the oddsmakers really “speaks volumes” doesn’t it? The Colonels’ record really should be a whole lot better as they are 0-5 SU in games decided by five points or less. The first season in a new conference can be tough, but what is killing EKU right now is that they are shooting just 37.4% vs. A-Sun opponents. You’ve got to figure that number will improve, while at the same time they won’t be letting teams shoot 50.9% against them. At home, the Colonels are averaging 86.1 PPG while allowing only 67.7.

Lipscomb has shot 52.8% so far in conference play, yet is only 1-3 SU in those four games, which should tell you something about how poorly they play defense. The Bisons are giving up over 80 PPG for the year and the last four road games have seen them allow 88, 93, 95 and 97! This is the first ever trip to Richmond, KY for Lipscomb and it doesn’t figure to go well. Look for the home team to record its first ever A-Sun victory! 10* Eastern Kentucky

10* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs FINALLY got back into the win column on Saturday, beating the Clippers 101-94 as a 1-point home favorite. It was just their second win since the day after X-Mas, the other was by just two points at Boston on January 5th. But, I’ve previously made the case that this team is better than its record (currently 16-27 SU) and they should find their way into the play-in round mix. At home, San Antonio has actually outscored opponents despite an 8-12 mark here. 

Phoenix is in the second game of a back to back. They played Detroit yesterday afternoon and that meant an easy win as they raced to a 135-108 decision over the worst team in the league. But not all the news was good as DeAndre Ayton was lost to an ankle injury in the first quarter and thus is likely to miss this game. Being without one of your top players is a tough break when playing w/o rest. This is also the Suns’ fourth straight road game and third in the past four days.

San Antonio has been competitive in two previous meetings with Phoenix, losing both by just four points. I expect better offensive efficiency from the Spurs here than what they showed in the win over the Clippers. That game saw them score a season-low 36 points in the paint and shoot just 41.0% from the field. Yet seven players still finished in double figures, led by PG Murray’s 18. Phoenix will NOT shoot as well as they did on Sunday (58.6%), so take the points in this one. 10* San Antonio

10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): The Cardinals and Rams split two regular season meetings, both winning on the road. That’s the exact same scenario we had with Patriots-Bills on Saturday (a game where I backed the Bills, as part of a teaser, at home). I’ll do the same here with the Rams, figuring it’s highly unlikely that the home team would lose all three meetings in a season series. I know that Arizona has been the quintessential “road warrior” this season (8-1 SU/ATS), but my view is that the Rams are the better team. 

It wasn’t just the Cardinals’ road record that defied logic in the regular season. They also come into the playoffs a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs this year, winning straight up all six times. Per ESPN’s Stats & Info department, it’s the most outright wins as a dog in a single season, without a loss, during the Super Bowl Era! But this is no longer the same team that started the year 7-0 SU. They went just 4-6 SU down the stretch and no longer have WR DeAndre Hopkins, a major loss. This will also be QB Kyler Murray’s first playoff game. 

The Rams are better built for the playoffs than the Cardinals. They’ve also played better down the stretch. Los Angeles hasn’t lost a game in regulation since November 28th at Lambeau Field. That run includes a 30-23 win at Arizona on MNF. HC Sean McVay has owned Arizona during his tenure here, going 9-1 SU and ATS. Going back to that Arizona underdog trend, teams with a perfect ATS regular season record as dogs (at least two wins) cash only 40% in the playoffs. 10* LA Rams

10* UMKC (8:00 ET): Kansas City (UMKC) is a Summit League side that I feel has been underrated by the oddsmakers most of this season. This isn’t the first time I’ve backed the Roos. Back in December, they came through as a 10* play for me, beating Green Bay 64-55. They’ve gone just 3-3 SU in six games since that win and lost 84-72 as a 4.5-point home dog to Oral Roberts over the weekend. But this shapes up as the easiest matchup since that win over Green Bay over a month ago. I’m laying the number. 

Denver will be playing its third road game in five days here. That’s a tough spot, especially for a team that’s a hideous 1-11 SU away from home this season. They are 0-10 SU in “true” road games, including losses to South Dakota and South Dakota State last week. The Pioneers gave up 80 points in both games and never really threatened either time. They’ve now lost three in a row overall and their last four defeats have all been by nine points or more. 

UMKC has been a rather dominant home team thus far. They are 5-1 SU here and have outscored opponents by 27.6 points per game! They are scoring 81.8 PPG and allowing just 54.2. I expect solid shooting in this game from the Roos as Denver is giving up more than 80 PPG in conference play. Certainly, the home team is due for an uptick in shooting after making only 39.7% in their first four Summit League games.They are shooting 48.7% from the floor at home. The Roos captured both meetings last season by a 12 point margin. 10* UMKC

8* Portland (7:00 ET): Portland has been a hot team at the betting window, covering the spread in each of its last four contests. Last time out, the Pilots evened their SU conference record at 1-1 with a rather dominating 82-63 win at Pepperdine. What was impressive about that showing wasn’t just the fact that Portland was a 6.5-point road underdog, but that they were also coming off a narrow OT loss just 48 hours prior. This team easily could be 4-0 SU (as well as 4-0 ATS) its last four games as the two losses have been by a total of seven points. I’m definitely taking the points here. 

Meanwhile, Loyola Marymount is reeling a bit as they’ve dropped B2B games to open the WCC schedule, both on the road. After getting waxed 97-73 by San Francisco (2nd best team in the league), the Lions were upset (as three-point favorites) at San Diego on Saturday. LMU has now dropped four of five overall with three of the losses coming by exactly five points. Their lone win in that stretch came at Bellarmine. 

Loyola Marymount will be thrilled to be back home after, like Portland, playing its last four games on the road. But home court advantage alone does not justify a double digit spread here. The Lions have actually lost two straight at home, losing to New Mexico State and Grand Canyon, both times as a short favorite. I’m a little shocked at how big this number is, considering that Portland has held the L4 opponents to an average of 61 PPG in regulation. In both losses, they had a halftime lead. An outright upset would not surprise me here. 8* Portland

10* Napoli (12:30 ET): Let’s fade Bologna for a second straight time. It worked out on Tuesday, when they lost 2-1 to Cagliari, a side nowhere near as good as the one I Rossoblu will face today. Napoli is currently third in the Serie A table, seven points adrift of the top. But it wasn’t all that long ago that they looked like the strongest side in the entire league. Napoli began the season with eight straight wins and 12-match unbeaten run. Unfortunately, they’ve slipped a bit, failing to post back to back victories over their last 13 competitions and have just three wins in their last 10 domestic fixtures. 

But one of those three wins was last week, 1-0 over Sampdoria, which was reminiscent of the hot start to 2021/22. Napoli dominated possession (69%) and it was their 10th clean sheet this Serie A season. Unfortunately, it was a much different tune midweek in the Coppa Italia where they were down to nine men by the end of the match and lost 5-2. That was a very misleading score with three of the goals conceded coming in AET.

As I discussed prior to the last fixture, Bologna has been hit hard by COVID recently. That and the fact they have a -5 goal differential in the year have me thinking this side is going to quietly remain in the bottom half of the table the rest of the way. They’re now down to 13th and have conceded nine times while losing four of their last five. It was a convincing 3-0 win by Napoli in the reverse fixture back in October. No one in Serie A has conceded fewer times this season than Napoli’s 15. 10* Napoli

10* Under Steelers/Chiefs (8:15 ET): Of the six matchups on the NFL’s “Super” Wild Card Weekend, all but one features teams that met in the regular season. This is one of those as Kansas City drubbed Pittsburgh 36-10, three weeks ago, here at Arrowhead. It’s difficult for me to envision a subpar Steelers team that was outscored by 55 points in the regular season, winning here. But this is certainly a big number to lay in the playoffs. The Steelers’ defense should ensure that this rematch is at least a little closer than the original. But I’m not expecting much scoring by the road team either. 

Kansas City heads into the playoffs on a 5-0 Over run. But let’s not forget about the seven-week stretch of regular season games where they held six teams to 17 points or fewer. At home, the Chiefs’ defense is allowing just 17.1 PPG. I don’t see them really being threatened here by a Steelers’ offense that has been beyond anemic, particularly in the first halves of games this year. The Steelers are averaging just 6.7 PPG in the 1H this year. Put them on the road and that number drops to a near unfathomable 3.6 PPG! They can’t run (3.9 YPC) and barely average 20 PPG. In six of the last eight games, Pittsburgh has gained less than 315 total yards. 

Kansas City should feel pretty comfortable about their chances of winning here. Patrick Mahomes is 42-1 SU as the starter when the defense does NOT give up 27+ points. Clearly, I don’t see the Steelers scoring THAT many. But I do see this being lower scoring than the regular season game, which makes Under the call. The Chiefs’ offense actually put up fewer points at home (than on the road) this season and gained fewer yards, per game and per play. Five of the Steelers’ last six games did not exceed 46 points and four of those had 40 points or fewer. 10* Under Steelers/Chiefs

10* Utah (8:15 ET): Even though they have lost four in a row and fallen to fourth place in the Western Conference standings, the Jazz remain second overall in my NBA power ratings (trailing only Golden State). When looking at this four-game losing streak, it is critical to note that Rudy Gobert has missed all of the games. Gobert has been cleared to return, giving the team its top defensive presence back, and I think that leads to a return to winning ways tonight in Denver. 

The Nuggets have seemingly established themselves as a top six team in the West with B2B dominant wins. It was a 140-108 drubbing of Portland on Thursday. That was a result I was happy to see, having laid the points with the Nuggets. But recall why I did so. The Blazers were extremely short-handed going into that game, including no Lillard or McCollum. Last night, Denver was a 133-96 winner over the Lakers, who are still without Anthony Davis. 

You’ve got to wonder if the Nuggets “used up” all of its good shooting last night. They made 57.5% from three-point range, a display that they cannot possibly hope to repeat here, especially if Gobert does return for Utah. Denver has really struggled on the second night of back to backs this season, going just 1-5 SU/ATS in this situation. The Jazz have had three days off to get ready for this game, so the schedule really sets up nicely for them to end this rare losing skid. 10* Utah

8* Dallas (4:30 ET): This is the lone Wild Card game where the teams involved did NOT meet in the regular season. Perhaps the uncertainty of how this game will look is the reason oddsmakers set such a “vanilla” number, but in my opinion the line is far too low. Dallas led the NFC in point differential (+172) and while it should be noted they really did beat up on their lousy division (NFC East), part of their league-best 12-5 ATS mark was a 10-3 ATS record when favored. I really have a hard time believing that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to win a playoff game on the road. 

Now that may seem strange because of the fact I took Jimmy G and the Niners last week, plus the points, against the Rams. But that was a situation where they NEEDED to win and the Rams had already clinched a playoff spot. Despite that dynamic, SF found itself down 17-0 in the first half. They tied the game with a late TD in regulation before winning on a FG in overtime. Now had the 49ers been matched up with another team here in the Wild Card Round, I might have considered them. But this is a bad matchup. 

The 49ers’ defense allowed 51 pass plays of 20+ yards. That sounds bad when getting set to face this Cowboys’ offense. With receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper healthy, which they are now, this is a tough group to stop. Dallas averages 36.4 PPG at home!  On the flip side, San Francisco is 2-6 SU this season when Garoppolo throws two or more interceptions. The Cowboys have a +14 turnover differential. I have too much respect for the Cowboys, who are #1 in DVOA, not to take them here at home. 8* Dallas

8* St. John’s (4:30 ET): The Red Storm suffered another tough loss on Wednesday, falling 86-78 at UConn in overtime. It was a game they thought they had won when Julian Champagnie hit a three-pointer with 4.8 seconds left in regulation, giving the Johnnies a 71-70 lead. But a late foul call, on a putback attempt, allowed for UConn to tie the game by making one of two free throw attempts. For St. John’s, that loss comes on the heels of blowing a halftime lead at Providence (and losing 83-73) last Saturday. 

On Sunday afternoon, the Johnnies are catching the right team. Georgetown has lost three in a row, all at home, as COVID has played a role. Two double digit scorers and coach Patrick Ewing were out for Thursday’s 72-58 loss to Butler. That came after a game I played against the Hoyas. They were three-point underdogs at Marquette on 1/7 and ended up losing 92-64. Ewing really ripped the team after that one, but as of yet, his words have had zero effect. G’town is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and this will be just their second “true” road game. 

All nine St. John’s wins this season have been at home where they are averaging 84.9 PPG. A possibly depleted G’town squad isn’t going to be able to stay within that kind of number. Even if they were at full strength, I wouldn’t like the Hoyas’ chances here. The Red Storm have three double-digit scorers, led by Champagnie’s 21.2 PPG. This is a team that’s better than its record. The oddsmakers seem to know that and I’ll lay the number. 8* St. John’s

10* Villarreal (8:00 ET): Still a month away from their next Champions League commitment, I believe it’s imperative that Villarreal starts their move up the La Liga table NOW. The Yellow Submarine currently sit in eighth place (29 points), but are third in the league in goal differential (+11) and fourth in xPts (35.68). I fully expect this to be a top five side by the end of the season. Villarreal is in form currently as they are on a six-match unbeaten run in La Liga with wins in four of the last five matches. I like them here on Sunday against a bottom of the table side. 

Elche has also displayed relatively good form of late, losing only one of their last five matches across all competitions and picking up four points from their last two La Liga fixtures. They’re on a three-match unbeaten streak, but unlike Villarreal, I’m not at all excited about Los Franjiverdes' prospects. This is a side that finished dead last in xPts last season in La Liga and is currently second from the bottom in that regard (ahead of only Cadiz) for 2021/22. I very much feel it’s going to be a struggle for them to avoid relegation as they are currently just two points clear of safety entering Sunday. 

It was a 4-1 Villarreal win in the reverse fixture earlier this season, so they’ve already proven this is a side that they can dominate. Completing a double over Elche would move the Yellow Submarine within one point of the Champions League places. It should be noted that only table leaders Real Madrid have scored more goals this term than Villarreal’s 33. They’ve scored multiple goals in each of their last four La Liga fixtures. Look for them to get the full three points here. 10* Villarreal

10* Boston (8:40 ET): The Bulls didn’t just lose a game last night, they also lost Zach LaVine to a knee injury. LaVine did not travel with the team to Boston as he’s set to have a MRI. The belief is that the injury isn’t too serious, but obviously he isn’t playing Saturday. Chicago’s depth was already being tested with Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones Jr., Javonte Green and Tyler Cook all on the mend. Perhaps of greater concern is that the Bulls have now given up 138 points in B2B games, letting the Nets and Warriors both shoot 56% from the field.

Now the Celtics aren’t as prolific as either of those two squads, but they are capable of hanging a big number on the Bulls here. Boston was also in action Friday night and the result wasn’t good as they fell 111-99 at Philadelphia. They were down by as many as 28 thanks to a terrible first quarter. But the game prior saw the C’s shoot rather well as they got 30+ point games from both Tatum and Brown. This is a better team at home where their SU record is 13-8.

Chicago has lost its last two games by a combined 68 points, so they are reeling. That’s the first time since the NBA instituted the conference format (in 1970) that a first place team lost consecutive games by an average of 30 PPG. This is a big revenge spot for Boston, who blew a 14-point 4Q lead here at home and lost to Chicago back on Nov 1. Even before the LaVine injury, I was a bit skeptical of the Bulls’ ability to remain on top of the East. The Celtics, meanwhile, should be higher than they are in the standings. Lay the points. 10* Boston

8* Katlyn Chookagian (8:00 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division (125 lbs). It will be the third fight on the main card, which can be watched (for free) on ESPN. Both Chookagian and Jennifer Maia are ranked in the top five, #2 and #4 respectively, and have been beaten by current champ Valentina Shevchenko. This is a rematch of a November 2019 fight, won by Chookagian by unanimous decision. I think she gets her hand raised yet again on Saturday. 

Since her loss to Shevchenko, Chookagian has gone 3-1 inside the Octagon. She’s coming off B2B wins here, both via decision. The first was over Cynthia Calvillo in Nov 2020 followed by beating Viviane Araujo last May. That leaves her with a 16-4 career record, including 9-4 in the UFC. While both women have improved since the last meeting, it’s Chookagian’s ability to dictate range and edge in speed that still give her the clear edge. She’s also improved her wrestling over the last two years. 

Maia is 19-7-1 overall in her professional career and 4-3 in the UFC. She got her shot at Shevchenko in November of 2020 and did win in a round on the scorecards, but ultimately lost by unanimous decision. She bounced back with a decision win of her own in July, beating Jessica Eye. But I’m just not sure there’s been enough improvement in her game to expect avenging the previous result against Chookagian. The smaller octagon at the Apex favors the rangier fighter as well. 8* Katlyn Chookagian

10* Under Raiders/Bengals (4:30 ET): When these teams met in the regular season, it was 32-13 Bengals, but that was a little bit misleading as both teams gained less than 300 total yards. I don’t see this rematch being higher scoring, so Under is a logical call here. It was only 13-6 going into the 4Q in Vegas back in Week 11. It was 16-13 with just over five minutes to go. After capping a 62-yard drive with a JaMar Chase TD, the Bengals piled on 10 more points due to two late Derek Carr interceptions. It was a somewhat misleading final.

Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow led the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. But he actually threw for a season-low 148 yards when he faced the Raiders. The Bengals’ offense had just one play of 20+ yards in that game and it was a Joe Mixon run. Burrow has been sacked a league-leading 51 times. The Raiders don’t send a ton of pressure, but as we saw last week against the Chargers, Maxx Crosby can certainly be a disrupting presence. 

I do think the Bengals will still win this game, however, and that’s mainly because I don’t expect a ton from a Las Vegas offense that is far too dependent on drawing PI calls to move the sticks. Even with a full overtime session last week, the Raiders still only gained 346 total yards. Even during their four-game win streak (four wins by a total of 12 points), their offense was just 18th in the league in yards per drive. Before last week, they had been held to 17 pts or less in five of the previous seven games. 10* Under Raiders/Bengals

10* Texas (2:00 ET): Still not sold on Iowa State’s #15 rating as they are outside the top 40 in my own power ratings. The Cyclones have won just ONE of their last 22 Big XII games and that was by four points over Texas Tech last week. They are coming off B2B road losses here, the first of which was at Oklahoma last Saturday. ISU was a six-point dog to an unranked team there, which should tell you all you need to know. They were double digit dogs at Kansas on Wednesday and lost by one, 62-61. 

Texas just beat Oklahoma, though in Austin, 66-52 and comes into this game ranked #22. I’ve got them higher at #15 in my own power ratings, so it’s not at all surprising to see the Longhorns favored here in Ames. What I really like about this team is the fact they lead in the country in scoring defense at 53.0 PPG allowed. Against Oklahoma, they allowed just 40% shooting, including 1 of 13 from three-point range. Only Gonzaga, all the way back in the second game of the season, has been able to crack 64 against UT. 

Iowa State trailed Kansas by nine late in the game Wednesday. They shot just 40.7%. That was after shooting 55% against Oklahoma, an effort negated by them allowing 61.7% shooting in the same game. It was a poor shooting effort in the victory over Texas Tech at 30%. I’m just going to stick with what I said last Saturday when taking OU minus the points. The Cyclones are due to tumble out of the Top 25. Their recent offensive showings tell me it could be an ugly day at that end here. 10* Texas

10* RB Leipzig (9:30 ET): This HAS to be the time. For those that are unaware (and I assume that’s most of you), Leipzig has yet to win an away game this entire Bundesliga season. It’s why they currently sit ninth in the table with only 25 points. But a +11 goal differential, stemming from last week’s 4-1 thrashing of Mainz, tells me Leipzig is set to ascend. They are third on xPts this season after finishing FIRST in that regard last season. Does anyone really dispute that Leipzig is going to finish top four? I certainly don’t. 

When you look at the goal differential column, you can see a chasm developing in the middle of the Bundesliga table. On the wrong side of that chasm is Stuttgart, who was promoted to the German top flight last season, and is currently sitting in 15th with 18 points. Die Roten is tied with Augsburg for the relegation playoff spot and only one point clear of safety. They have a -9 goal differential and despite the return of their leading goalscorer last week, it was a 0-0 draw with bottom of the table Greuther Furth.

There’s a seven-point gap between these two sides, but really it should be much larger than that. It’s a 14-point difference in xPts. I know that Leipzig really benefited from Mainz being down to 10 men (red card) last week, but they showed no mercy to their opponent. What makes things even worse here for the hosts (Stuttgart) is that they are going to be without at least three players and that number could double due to positive COVID-19 tests. Leipzig seems to be especially unlucky to have just four points (all draws) on the road this season as they have 11.06 xPts. 10* RB Leipzig

10* Richmond (9:00 ET): This is a critical home game for Richmond, who already has two conference losses. They welcome in a Davidson team that is 13-2 SU overall and 3-0 in A-10 play. I say the Spiders should still be the favorites here; they are 7-1 SU at home and have had Davidson’s number the last few years. Head to head, Richmond has won seven of the last nine head to head matchups while also going 8-1 ATS. The circumstances dictate that they’ll be the more “desperate” (and aggressive) team tonight. 

Richmond did pick up its first league win last time out, beating UMass 80-72. They failed to cover the spread, but it was 10.5 points. Just a win is all we need here and the schedule certainly sets up well for the Spiders. That win against UMass took place on January 5th, nine days ago. They’ve had two games postponed since. Davidson was in action this past Tuesday, also against UMass (won 77-67). The Wildcats have actually played two games in the time since Richmond last took the court. 

The other was a 72-68 win over Rhode Island. Like the game vs. UMass, that was at home. Davidson is 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in “true” road games thus far, but save for the cross-country trip to face San Francisco (which they lost), this is the toughest one. The Wildcats didn’t cover in either of those last two victories and Richmond is a place where they’ve lost AND failed to cover three straight times. Note that Richmond was up 19 at the half over UMass and won comfortably despite the Minutemen shooting 55% from three. This spot sets us quite well for the home team. 10* Richmond

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): It’s been a great four-game run for Charlotte, who won by 29 over Detroit, beat Milwaukee twice (both times at home) and then went to Philadelphia to pick up a 109-98 victory on Wednesday. The Hornets are now up to seventh in the East and just one game out of fifth. This despite having a negative scoring differential on the season and the second worst scoring defense in the league. This is a big number for them to lay; they’ve only been favored in 10 games all season! 

Meanwhile, Orlando hasn’t been able to get over the hump. They suffered a 10th consecutive loss on Wednesday, falling in Washington 112-106 to the Wizards. I cashed them as underdogs though. Five of the Magic’s last six losses have been by six points or less. They’ve led or been tied going into the 4Q in four of those six games. Wednesday saw them dig an early hole (trailed 33-16 after 1Q) but they fought back valiantly. As they have gotten closer to full strength, the Magic have had four different leading scorers in the last five games. 

What will cost Charlotte the cover in this game is their defense. I know that they somehow held Milwaukee and Philadelphia below 100 points the L2 games. But for the season, the Hornets are allowing 115.5 PPG. Unless they “go off” at the offensive end (something I don’t see happening), it’s going to be incredibly difficult to cover a spread this large with the defensive regression I am projecting. Orlando does have double revenge here from two prior losses to the Hornets this season. Both losses were by single digits. 8* Orlando

10* Over Suns/Pacers (7:05 ET): What a tough season it’s been for Indiana. They are 15-27 SU and have just one win (against Houston) since X-Mas. I don’t think the team has played all that poorly. They own a better YTD point differential than 7th place Charlotte, but have been doomed by an awful 1-10 record in games decided by three points or less. Things weren’t close on Wednesday though as the Pacers shot a season-worst 19.4% (7 of 36) from three-point range. Only one player (Justin Holliday) made more than one three in the 119-100 loss to the Celtics. 

Phoenix wasn’t much better offensively in its last game, though they did win 99-95 in Toronto, a game that had no fans present. All five Suns starters finished in double figures, but the reserves combined to score just 21 points. You’ve got to expect more than that here, right? The Suns average 111.8 PPG, but have been below that number each of their last three games. As is the case with Indiana, I’m expecting a bit of an offensive breakthrough by the road team in this Friday night matchup. 

The Pacers average 11 made three-pointers per game, so that’s an area where I expect them to improve quite a bit from the last time. The Suns held the Raptors to 21.6% from behind the arc, so it works both ways. Not only is Indiana set to improve, Phoenix is set to regress defensively. Indiana actually averages 111.5 PPG at home. But at the same time, I can’t see the Suns not improving their offensive numbers as well. I think both teams are reaching 110 points in this game. That means Over is the call. 10* Over Suns/Pacers

10* Arizona (11:00 ET): There are two other Pac 12 teams (#3 UCLA, #5 USC) ranked higher in the polls than #6 Arizona coming into tonight. But I believe the Wildcats are the best team in this conference. Assuming they handle their business the rest of this week, they will pass USC, who just suffered its first loss of the season. Tonight, ‘Zona faces a Colorado team that’s won five straight, but really isn’t a threat. The game is in Tucson where the Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 this season, winning by an average margin of nearly 35 points per game! 

Now Arizona has failed to cover each of its last four games. But three of those saw them favored by more than 24 points. Those three games saw them win by double digits each time, every win coming by 16 pts or greater. Mixed in was a four-point loss to a good Tennessee team (#22) on the road, their only defeat all season. So far the Wildcats have played two conference games and they defeated Oregon State by 25 and Washington by 16. This is one of just eight teams in the country to rank in the top 20 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Not only do they lead the country in scoring at 89.9 PPG, but they play VERY fast (third in adjusted tempo). 

There’s a pretty sizable gap between the top three and everyone else in the Pac 12. Colorado is about to find out that Arizona isn’t just one of the best in the conference, but in the entire country. The Buffaloes prefer to slow the game down, but for the reasons listed above, it’s going to be difficult to play that kind of game here. CU is 0-9 SU in Tucson since joining the Pac 12 a decade ago. While the Buffs may be on a five-game win streak, all those victories came in Boulder. Alarming is how they’ve shot just 22% from three-point range away from home this season. Their only “true” road game came at UCLA and they lost there by 12. This one promises to be even uglier. Lay the points. 10* Arizona

10* Denver (10:05 ET): Portland is in a very bad spot here. They are now without both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum for an indefinite period of time. The starting backcourt is really the “heart and soul” of this team and truthfully the Blazers haven’t even been that strong this year when one or both plays. They have a 16-24 SU record, including 2-13 away from home where they are being beaten by an average of 12.2 PPG! The underdog role has not suited them well as their ATS record when getting points is just 5-14. I know they were able to stun Brooklyn the other night, but that was at home. 

For the record, Lillard is undergoing abdominal surgery and will be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks time. McCollum has missed the previous 16 games due to a lung injury and paternity leave. Denver isn’t about to take it easy on the undermanned Blazers. Not after blowing a 25-point lead and losing 87-85 to the Clippers on Tuesday. Coach Michael Malone ripped his team after it was outscored 32-19 in the final quarter by LA. So the Nuggets should be motivated from the “get-go” here. Earlier in the year, they hosted Portland and won 124-95 as a 6.5-point favorite. Considering all the absences for the Blazers tonight, I’m really surprised the home team isn’t favored by more. 

It’s not just Lillard and McCollum that are out for Portland. They were without Norman Powell and Larry Nance Jr on Tuesday, making the win over the Nets all the more shocking. Neither of those two are expected to play tonight either. Nor is Cody Zeller or Anfernee Simmons. Playing with a “skeleton crew” couldn’t come at a worse time as the team is about to embark on a six-game road trip. Denver is top five in the league in PPG allowed at home. This should get ugly in a hurry, so lay the points. 10* Denver

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): My only losing bet in the last three days came with the Timberwolves. It was on Tuesday and they were laying a short number, on the road, against New Orleans. The T’wolves were coming off their highest scoring game of the season, a 141-123 win in Houston, and had won four straight overall. It seemed like a prudent play. Unfortunately, by their own admission, the team came in overconfident and lost 128-125 with the game decided on a Brandon Ingram three-pointer with just 1.3 seconds remaining. "We acted like we were just going to walk in, get a win, and it's going to be sweet," Karl-Anthony Towns said. "I don't know if we thought, like, we're the Warriors all of a sudden.

It’s not the Warriors that the T’wolves will be facing here, but it’s arguably the hottest team in the NBA as Memphis has won 10 straight and 20 of its last 24 games. This is a step up in class for Minnesota after the last three road games were all against bottom tier Western Conference teams. But the good news is that Minny has beaten Memphis this year and did so in emphatic fashion, 138-95, back on November 20th. While that was a home game, take note that the T’wolves also took the Grizzlies to overtime earlier in the year here in Memphis.

While it’s a little risky to fade a team as hot as the Grizzlies are right now, I believe it’s an opportune time to “sell high” on them. They just beat the Warriors on Tuesday, and the Lakers before that, so a “lesser” team like the T’wolves may not command their full attention. Also, while Memphis is 9-1 ATS during the 10-game SU win streak, they’ve been underdogs in half the games. Only once, against Detroit, have they been favored by more than 5.5 at the betting window. Minnesota is #6 in the conference in point differential and net efficiency. With their starting five healthy, they are 9-3 SU this season. Take the points. 8* Minnesota

analysis soon

10* Orlando (7:10 ET): The Magic are obviously not a great team. They’re not even a good team. They have their worst 41-game record in franchise history (7-34 SU) and have lost a season-high nine in a row. HOWEVER, they have been playing better recently and don’t have players currently in health & safety protocols. The Magic probably should have picked up a win (or two) in the L5 games, a stretch which has seen them lose four times by four points or less. They’ve led or been tied going into the 4Q in all but one of those five games as well. 

One of the close losses came Sunday at home to Washington, who the Magic have an immediate rematch with tonight. The Wizards had to play a game in between, which they won last night, 122-118 over Oklahoma City. The Wizards have thrived in close games this season, going 8-2 SU in those decided by three points or less. That’s how they’ve maintained a better than .500 record despite having the third worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. I think they’re due to tumble. 

While Orlando is relatively healthy, Washington saw leading scorer Bradley Beal have to re-enter health and safety protocol last night. The Wizards lost two of three games the last time Beal was in protocol. With this being the second night of a back to back, it’s a tough spot, and I cannot see the team matching its 54% shooting from last night nor can I see Kuzma or Dinwiddie matching their respective individual performances vs. the Thunder. Orlando is due for a win while Washington, whose L3 wins have been by a TOTAL of seven points, is due for a loss. Take the points. 10* Orlando

8* Minnesota (7:00 ET): Michigan State comes into this game ranked #10 in the country, which seems too high. My power rankings obviously still consider Sparty to be a Top 25 team, but Top 10 seems a “bit rich.” I was set to fade them on Saturday when they were scheduled to hit the road to face unranked Michigan, who was a slight favorite to win. But that game had to be postponed due to COVID. Might that interruption have an adverse effect on the Spartans tonight? I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.

This is also a revenge game for underdog Minnesota, who was 7-0 SU back when they hosted MSU in the Big 10 opener back on 12/8. The Golden Gophers ended up losing that game 75-67, on what was a poor shooting night for them (just 26.1% from three), and falling into a 13-point halftime hole was the key. Even though they’re now on the road, and off back to back losses, look for a better start from the Gophers tonight. This is a critical game for them as they are off to a 1-3 start in Big 10 play. 

Back to the cancellation from Saturday, Michigan State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has played with five or six days rest. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially considering the Spartans’ issues turning the ball over. They did not cover a similar spread vs. Nebraska last week. While 13-2 SU looks nice, MSU hasn’t exactly played a “murderers row” in the Big 10 thus far. Minnesota has had to face Illinois and Indiana and shot just 20% from three-point range in those two losses. Expect more shots to fall for them tonight and they’ll stay within the number as a result. Take the points. 8* Minnesota

10* Wofford (7:00 ET): For those that even bother to dig “this deep” into the College Basketball card, there may be some sense of surprise that a 9-7 team is favored by so many points against an 11-4 team. But, with this number, oddsmakers are basically telling you what they think of Wofford and Samford and I agree that the disparity is wide. Wofford will be going for their ninth straight head to head win in this SoCon rivalry. The previous eight have been by an average of 10 points, which is what the line is currently (as of this writing). 

Safe to say that Samford won’t be able to match the performance they turned in for the last game. Facing one of the weaker teams in the league (Western Carolina), the Bulldogs shot 50% from the field while allowing just 33.9% en route to an 85-60 blowout. It was their largest MOV all season, even more than the two times they faced a non-DI foe. BUT, this is a team that has an incredible FIVE wins by two points or less. Two of those were against “power conference” teams (Ole Miss, Oregon St), but I believe tonight’s game will more closely resemble the Bulldogs’ recent trip to Furman, where they lost by 32 points. 

Wofford probably feels like they “let one get away” as on Monday they lost 58-54 to UNC Greensboro. The Terriers had a 10-point halftime lead (on the road) after holding UNCG to just 18 points! But the 2H was completely different as they were outscored 40-24. It was a game Wofford led most of the way. They are now just 1-3 SU in conference play (despite being favored all four times), so look for tonight to be a “statement” game of sorts. At home, the Terriers are averaging 81.7 PPG, but perhaps more telling is that they shoot 51.0% from the field. Samford is shooting just 40.7% on the road. Lay the points. 10* Wofford

10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): The Timberwolves are on a four-game win streak here and coming off two of their highest scoring games of the entire season. After walloping OKC 135-105 last Friday, it was time to establish a new season-high in points on Sunday with a 141-123 beatdown at Houston. You may be thinking that this sounds like an apt time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, but think again. When this team has its starting five intact, they have been very impressive. They are 18-10 SU when just Towns and Russell are available. When the full starting five plays, their record is 9-2 (Beverley could return here). 

The T’wolves’ travels next take them to New Orleans as they continue the face the worst the Western Conference has to offer. This is the fourth straight game for them against the bottom three in the West as they got to face OKC twice before blowing out Houston on Sunday. Given the recent offensive numbers, it shouldn’t be a problem covering this short number tonight as the Pelicans haven’t had many answers for anyone of late. The Pelicans only win in the L5 games came against Golden State, who was extremely short-handed (no Curry, Green or Thompson) at the time. 

Minnesota now has the sixth best point differential in the West, so they seem to be legit. Having only made the playoffs once since 2004, this is a team that should be giving it “their all,” night in and night out. Surprisingly, the T’wolves are top 10 in the league in defensive efficiency and as I said prior to the last game (had the Over vs. Houston), their YTD FG% of 43.7 is due to improve dramatically with Towns and Russell back. I don’t see New Orleans being able to slow them down. The T’wolves have already taken two of the previous three meetings this season despite never shooting better than 40.6% from the field. They’ll shoot much better tonight. 10* Minnesota

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): This is going to be the first time in at least six years that JMU is favored to beat Northeastern. The Dukes did take the last meeting, 79-72 back on January 24th of last year, but did so as 5.5-point dogs. Consider them being favored here as a “changing of the guard” in this rivalry, not to mention a “sign o’ the times” as N’eastern has lost four in a row to fall to 6-8 SU on the year while JMU, despite also being off a loss, is 9-3 SU. I’m laying the short number here. 

For both teams, this will be the second game in three days. As I already mentioned, N’eastern has lost four in a row. The last two defeats have been by a total of four points. They fell 70-67 at Towson on Sunday. While that game ended up being close, N’eastern only led briefly in the first half and never had the advantage after halftime. James Madison lost for the first time at home on Sunday, 87-80 to Hofstra, a game the Dukes led by one at halftime. For most of the second half, it was a one-possession game. 

JMU was on a four-game win streak prior to losing to Hofstra. I think having them having the home court edge for this one is a big deal as their record in Harrisonburg is still 6-1 SU and they are averaging 81.0 PPG while allowing only 59.6 PPG. Meanwhile, this will be Northeastern’s fourth straight road game, a stretch which goes back to before the New Year. The Huskies are only 2-7 SU away from home so far this season and 1-5 ATS in “true” road games. After dropping a couple of close calls, the tank could be "running on empty" for N'eastern. JMU has covered both times this year when it has been a favorite of 3.5 or more points. Last month, they defeated VIRGINIA here at home! 10* James Madison

8* Akron (7:00 ET): The MAC - as per usual - seems pretty wide open this season. Toledo, Ohio & Buffalo should be considered the favorites right now, but not far behind is Akron, who I believe will win 20+ games by the end of the year. The Zips are just 7-4 SU right now, so they’ve got a lot of work to do to “live up” to my projection. A 69-63 home loss last week to Ohio didn’t help matters, but having a full seven days to prepare for this game, a drop in class vs. Ball State, a bounce back should be in order. 

Now Ball State does come in on a four-game ATS win streak and they won on the road Saturday, 78-72 at Eastern Michigan. The Cardinals entered that game as one-point underdogs, but were able to pull the minor upset due to an edge at the FT line (+11 in makes, +18 in attempts) and hitting a much higher percentage of 3PA (50% to 25% for EMU). They also held EMU’s second leading scorer to only seven points on 3 of 10 shooting. It was a solid effort, but also just the second road win of the season for Ball State, whose four previous “true” road games all resulted in double digit defeats. 

Akron hadn’t lost at home before facing Ohio last Tuesday. They were also on a six-game win streak overall. Having had several extra days to prepare is obviously a huge edge for the Zips coming into tonight’s contest. This will be the first time this season that BSU is playing two “true” road games in a span of four days or less. Note the reason for Akron having been off for a week was COVID, which cancelled Saturday’s game vs. Miami and had them short-handed vs. Ohio. But it looks like they’ll have the full complement of players tonight. Ball State is giving up a ton of points per game (84.0 on the road!) while the Zips average 82.2 at home. 8* Akron

8* Cagliari +0.5 (2:45 ET) - Take Cagliari +0.5 here (on the goal line). That way, you’re covered in case of a draw, which certainly is a possible result in this Tuesday Serie A clash, which had to be hastily rescheduled (because of COVID) after a Sunday postponement. Whereas my last Serie A play was a byproduct of projected mid-table reshuffling, this is a case where one side (Cagliari) is clearly in need of points so that it can escape the relegation zone. I think they’ll at least get one here, if not the full three. 

Cagliari is off a win as it returned from winter break with a huge 2-1 win over Sampdoria. That moved them past Genoa into 18th place with 13 points, but they are still four points adrift of safety and that’s why this fixture is so key. After hosting Bologna on Tuesday, the next four fixtures will all come against sides occupying spots in the top half of the table. So points will probably be few and far between in that stretch. Winning here is pretty key for survival, and given the visitors’ current circumstance, Cagliari’s chances of winning B2B matches looks pretty good.

Prior to the postponement of this fixture, Bologna also had Thursday’s match vs. Inter Milan controversially waved off (at the last minute) due to a COVID outbreak in their ranks. They’ve been forced into isolation and unable to train for Cagliari. Throw in the fact that Bologna already felt like an overachieving side due to tumble (-4 YTD goal differential) and I don’t see how they win here. They’ve won just three times in nine chances away this season. 8* Cagliari +0.5

8* Texas Southern (8:30 ET): Mississippi Valley State, who is the worst team in all of College Basketball, actually won a game on Saturday. They beat Prairie View A&M 84-82 in overtime, as a 17-point underdog, for their first win of 2021-22. But make no mistake about it, the Delta Devils have a LONG way to go in order to escape the basement of my power ratings. There’s only ONE team in the country that they’d be favored against at home (Delaware State) and that’s not who they are facing tonight. And it’s also a road game. On the road, MVSU is getting outscored by more than 30 points per game this season! 

So this should be the easiest win of the year for a Texas Southern team that’s gotten to play just ONE game at home prior to this. That lone home game was on Saturday and the Tigers ran past Arkansas-Pine Bluff 90-71. Opening the season with 11 consecutive road games is a BRUTAL ask, so look past Texas Southern’s record for this one. My power ratings have them closer to a 30-point favorite over MVSU! 

I think that the “thrill” of picking up their first victory will cause an inevitable “letdown” here for Miss Valley State, whose numbers this season are absolutely hideous. They shoot only 28.8% from three-point range and 36.1% overall. They’re being outscored by 25.6 PPG as they let opponents score 88 PPG on 53.1% shooting. Texas Southern was a 16-point favorite against Ark-Pine Bluff, so they certainly should be a larger favorite here. Look for this to be a complete blowout. 8* Texas Southern

10* Georgia (8:00 ET): When I took Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, I noted that it felt like the all-time “buy low” situation on Nick Saban as his Crimson Tide were underdogs for just the second time in 165 games. They needed the game more than Georgia did (to get into the CFP) and sure enough, at the end of the day it ended up being an outright 41-24 win by Bama as 6.5 point underdogs. The spread is shorter this time, predictably so, but I am pivoting to Georgia for the rematch. This time, the Bulldogs will be ready and the more motivated side. 

I had Georgia in CFP Semifinals as they laid waste to Michigan by a score of 34-11. The game was never in doubt as UGA rolled to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter and was up 27-3 at halftime. Really, the final score could have been a lot worse. The Bulldogs’ top ranked defense, which had three shutouts and held nine teams to 10 points or less in the regular season, again showed up in a major way vs. the Wolverines. This group is allowing just 9.6 PPG for the season and excluding the SEC Championship, has held the other 12 opponents to only 94 points. 

Other than Alabama, nobody scored more than 17 points against Georgia all season. This is a team that led most of the way in virtually every other game besides the SEC Championship. To me, the key here is if the UGA defense looks like it did in every other game this year. I don’t think there’s any way that ‘Bama goes for 41 points again. The Tide won’t have WR John Metchie this time. Georgia has been the better team all year in my eyes as Bama had the close calls vs. Auburn, LSU and Arkansas down the stretch. I don’t see Bama upsetting Georgia twice. 10* Georgia

8* Under Georgia/Alabama (8:00 ET): The SEC Championship Game was a 41-24 final, but I don’t see the rematch (for the National Championship) being that high scoring. For starters, Alabama doesn’t have WR John Metchie this time. Metchie suffered a season-ending injury in the first meeting, after hauling in six catches for 97 yards. Also, note there was a defensive TD scored in the SEC Championship, which probably won’t happen again. Both defenses looked dominant in their respective semi final victories. Both those games went Under and I’m banking on this one to do the same. 

I had Georgia in CFP Semifinals as they laid waste to Michigan by a score of 34-11. The Bulldogs’ top ranked defense, which had three shutouts and held nine teams to 10 points or less in the regular season, again showed up in a major way vs. the Wolverines. This group is allowing just 9.6 PPG for the season and excluding the SEC Championship, has held the other 12 opponents to only 94 points. Other than Alabama, nobody scored more than 17 points against Georgia all season. The Tide are the only offense to score multiple touchdowns in the same game against Georgia. 

Now it should be pointed out that Alabama’s defense also looked pretty ferocious against Cincinnati, holding them to just six points and 218 total yards. For the year, the Crimson Tide allow just 19.2 PPG. With this being a second meeting, there’s greater familiarity between the two sides. Probably not a lot of surprises from either offense. 8* Under Georgia/Alabama

8* Over Jazz/Pistons (7:10 ET): When I first saw this number, I assumed that it was the highest O/U line for any Pistons game this season. But it’s not even their highest of the month. Games against Milwaukee and Charlotte both had higher O/U lines and the one vs. Charlotte is worth mentioning here as the Pistons gave up 140 points in the game. In their most recent game, a 97-92 win over Orlando, the Pistons allowed just 33.7% shooting. But there’s no way we’re going to see anything close to that tonight as they face the team with the most efficient offense in the NBA. 

Utah has dropped back to back games, the latest being a 125-113 loss to Indiana where they let the Pacers hit 55% from the floor. I’ll come back to that in a moment. But know that the last time the Jazz dropped B2B games, they came back to win six in a row. Only Golden State and Phoenix (both 30-9 SU) have better records than the Jazz this year and only the Warriors have a better YTD point differential. As I stated earlier, no team averages more points per possession. Utah also averages a league-best 115.7 points per game. 

But the Jazz are missing their best defender right now, Rudy Gobert, and that played a significant role in them allowing the Pacers to shoot 55% from the floor. I know that Detroit is probably not capable of shooting THAT well, but I do expect them to easily break 100 points in this game. In the first three games after the New Year, the Pistons topped 110 each time. Eight of Utah’s last 10 games have seen at least 225 total points scored. 8* Over Jazz/Pistons

10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): In the name of point differential, the Chargers MUST win this game. They have outscored opponents by 18 points this season. That’s certainly nothing special, but it’s what you’d expect from a 9-7 SU team that’s trying to grab one of the final playoff spots in the AFC. It’s far more impressive than Las Vegas, who is also 9-7 SU but has been outscored this year by 68 points. It is my view that the Raiders do not belong in the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to win (and cover) the final game of the regular season.

These teams met back in Week 4 and I had the foresight to get down on Los Angeles, who went on to win 28-14. It was 21-0 at halftime and the Chargers finished with a 380-213 edge in total yards and 25-13 edge in first downs. For this rematch, yes the game is in Vegas, but the Raiders haven’t shown much of a home field advantage at Allegiant Stadium (3-5 SU here this season) and it’s not like the Chargers benefited from any home field edge at So-Fi Stadium (they have the weakest home field advantage in the league).

Assuming that the Colts win earlier in the day (to move to 10-7 SU), then this becomes a “winner take all” game for the final playoff spot. If the Colts somehow lost, which is unlikely as they are facing the Jaguars, then BOTH of these teams could make the playoffs with a tie. I think the idea of playing for a tie in today’s NFL seems absurd. So I’m banking on Justin Herbert, who has previously led his team to victories in Kansas City, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all playoff teams). The Raiders are a very lucky 6-2 SU in one-score games. Their luck runs out here. 10* LA Chargers

10* Over T’wolves/Rockets (7:10 ET): Minnesota is now fully healthy and on Friday I saw first-hand what they were capable of doing when that’s the case. The T’wolves crushed OKC 135-105 as a relatively short road favorite. That was a mistake by me to doubt this team’s ability to go on the road and beat one of the weakest teams in the league. (In my defense, it was just the second time all season that the T’wolves were road favorites). The situation now repeats itself as they are in Houston on Sunday. 

I’m obviously not going to try and fade the T’wolves again here. The trio of Towns, Russell and Edwards combined for 70 points (on 27 of 39 shooting) Friday. It was just the second game back (from health and safety protocol) for Towns and Russell and clearly this is a playoff caliber team when those two are in the lineup (at least good enough for the play-in round). While Minnesota may not score 135 points again tonight, they should still put up a big number against a Houston team that’s giving up an average of 123.6 points its last five games and 115.9 for the season. The T’wolves’ overall shooting for the season (43.5%) is certainly due to improve. 

The Over is 4-1 in the Rockets’ last five games and that’s despite them shooting only 43.7% themselves. They are putting up 110 PPG when at home this season. Their last game (scored 106 points) was their lowest scoring effort since 12/27 and they were just 12 of 43 from three-point range. So, better offense tonight, coupled with the usual defense from the Rockets should lead to an easy Over. 10* Over T’wolves/Rockets

analysis soon

9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): The 49ers (9-7 SU) need to win this game to ensure they make the playoffs. They could also get in with a Saints loss, but given who the Saints are facing (Falcons), they shouldn’t count on that. The Rams (12-4 SU) need a win here to clinch the NFC West. So both teams are invested in this Week 18 matchup. But the stakes are clearly higher for San Francisco, who has already beaten the Rams once this season, 31-10. I’ll take them plus the points in the rematch. 

I was on the Niners the first time these teams met. It was on MNF and quickly turned into a blowout as it was 14-0 after the first quarter. For the entirety of the second half, the Niners would maintain a two touchdown advantage. That was the game that really turned their season around. SF was only 3-5 SU heading into the game. They’ve won six of eight since. The two losses, both on the road, were by seven points or less. They clearly should have won the game in Tennessee. Believe it or not, the 49ers now rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential, a metric that I really value. 

Now the big story heading into Week 18 is who will play QB for San Francisco. HC Kyle Shanahan and his team obviously knows, but the Rams do not. I view this as an obvious edge for the underdog. Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed last week due to a right thumb injury, reportedly had a “good week of practice.” So he could be back in the starting lineup. Or it might be rookie Trey Lance, who guided the team to an easy 23-7 win over the Texans last week. Either way, I like the Niners plus the points over a Rams team that’s been a little lucky the last few weeks. 9* San Francisco

8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals (4:25 ET): Seattle (6-10 SU) has nothing to play for here while Arizona (11-5) can still win the NFC West by winning this game and the Rams losing to the 49ers. That’s hardly the unlikeliest of scenarios and it’s tough not to expect the Cardinals to win here, given they easily defeated the Seahawks earlier in the year, 23-13, with Colt McCoy at QB. But given the fact Seattle has a +21 point differential for the season (they are better than their record), I’m not about to lay this many points here. 

The Seahawks put up 51 points in the home finale last week. Granted, that came against the Lions, but it was the third time in the last five weeks that they put up 30 or more points. Four of those five games went Over the total. Expect a much better offensive effort out of Seattle here, compared to the first meeting with Arizona, which was just the second game back for Russell Wilson after finger surgery. The Seattle offense also now has RB Penny, who is coming off a career-best 170 yard day. 

Arizona ended a three-game losing skid with a surprise 25-22 win over Dallas last week. This offense went for over 400 yards the first time it faced the Seattle defense. Again, that was with Colt McCoy under center. The Cardinals will need to continue scoring, given the defense has allowed 22 points or more in five straight games. Fortunately, they have Kyler Murray, who is set to become the first QB in NFL history with 3,500+ yards passing and 400+ yards rushing in each of his first three seasons. I see this game going Over. 8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals

9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Both teams are mathematically alive for the playoffs, but it’s going to take plenty of help. The Steelers obviously must win here, then have the Jaguars beat the Colts and hope Chargers-Raiders doesn’t end in a tie. The Ravens’ chances are even more bleak as they need to win and have the Colts, Dolphins and Chargers all lose. I don’t think much of Pittsburgh (-58 point differential), but Baltimore (five straight losses with four coming by two points or less!) is a sinking ship right now. So take the points.  It was announced Friday that Lamar Jackson will miss his fourth straight game due to a right ankle injury. The Ravens haven’t won since their QB got hurt, although the two games started by Tyler Huntley were both one-point losses. But don’t forget they were dominated at home by the Packers before making things interesting late. Then they were dominated by the Bengals with Jackson and Huntley both out. Last week, with Huntley back, the Ravens blew a 16-7 4Q lead and lost to the Rams 20-19. I just don’t see this team “getting off the mat” after such a slew of close losses. 

Pittsburgh is off an emotional Monday night in what was likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game. They beat the Browns 26-14. It was the Steelers that began the Ravens’ downfall with a 20-19 win back on December 5th, the first of two times John Harbaugh infamous went for two and the win, only to fail and lose the game. While the Steelers have been shakier on the road of late, I like that their defense is giving up only 4.7 yards per play the last three weeks while the Ravens’ defense has allowed 7.4 YPP over the same time. The Steelers are 34-15-2 ATS L51 tries as an underdog. 9* Pittsburgh

10* Niagara (1:00 ET): These teams met nine days ago and haven’t played since. Quinnipiac took the first meeting, 77-68 as a 1.5-point home dog, for their fourth consecutive win and cover. The Bobcats shot 53.8% from the floor in that victory, which is well above their season average of 45.2%. They raced out to a big halftime lead and also got a season-high 20 points from Dezi Jones. Now on the road for Sunday’s rematch, I can’t see a repeat performance from Quinnipiac, so look for Niagara to get some revenge here. 

The Purple Eagles have yet to record a conference win this season (0-3 in the MAAC) so they come into today pretty desperate. The switch in home court advantage should prove to be significant for this rematch as Niagara is holding teams to just 63.3 PPG on 39% shooting here in their own gym. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac’s defense gets significantly worse on their travels; they allow 77.2 PPG on 48.3% shooting away from home. 

Three times during this four-game win streak, Quinnipiac has been the underdog. I can’t see a fourth upset taking place over a five-game stretch. Again, Niagara was the slight favorite to win on the road, so we’re getting a good value on them for the rematch. The Purple Eagles are 12-4-1 ATS their L17 home games. The home team has won and covered four of the previous five meetings between these two teams, including a 75-59 Niagara win the lone time they got to play host during that stretch. 10* Niagara

7* Sassuolo +0.0 (6:30 AM ET): Take Sassuolo (on the goal line). That way, you’re covered in case of a draw, which certainly is a possible result in this early Sunday morning (EST) clash in Serie A. Both sides are in fact coming off draws mid-week: Sassuolo 1-1 with Genoa and Empoli 3-3 with Lazio. While they both feel like they left two points on the table, it’s Sassuolo that has the stronger claim and as I’m about to get into, I Neroverdi has actually been the stronger side this season (despite currently being three points adrift of Sunday’s opponent). 

Sassuolo fell behind just six minutes into its first fixture of 2022. Facing a bottom of the table side like Genoa, on home soil no less, that had to be a terrible feeling. But shortly after halftime, Sassuolo’s Domenico Berardi was able to strike with an equalizer, allowing his side to at least earn a share of the points. Sassuolo had an incredible 28 shot attempts in the match (compared to just 4 for Genoa!) and dominated possession (74% to 26%), so they really should have been victorious. 

Empoli probably feels the same way after blowing an early 2-0 against Lazio and letting in a stoppage time equalizer. But the fact of the matter is that Empoli lost the possession battle (62% to 38%), had 12 fewer shot attempts and benefited from a VAR reversal of a Lazio goal. I had Lazio on Thursday and as I said in the analysis, Empoli should feel very fortunate to be sitting ninth in the table. They are actually sitting below Sassuolo in both xPts and GD right now. The visitors have suffered only one defeat in their last eight fixtures. 7* Sassuolo

8* Under Cowboys/Eagles (8:15 ET): With both teams having already clinched a playoff spot, and little chance to improve seeding, don’t expect many fireworks here on Saturday night. Certainly, this will be nothing like the first meeting, which was a 41-21 win by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Dallas will play its starters, but for how long remains to be seen. Philadelphia is dealing with a COVID outbreak and QB Jalen Hurts has an ankle sprain. So they won’t resemble the team that’s won six of seven. 

Even if Hurts does play, I don’t see the Eagles doing much offensively, even though the Cowboys are thin at linebacker. Certainly, Philly is going to want to keep it conservative in preparation for next week’s road playoff game (likely against Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay). Philly may lead the league in rushing, but their RB group is very thin right now. My expectation here is that by the second half you’ll have Gardner Minshew at QB with a third-string RB. That could be the dynamic for the entire game, honestly. 

The Dallas’ offense has declined in recent weeks - with one notable exception - the MNF beatdown of Washington. But that was at home. The Cowboys’ points per game average dips dramatically on the road, all the way down to 23.5 from 36.4 at home. Fortunately, their defense is allowing only 19.4 PPG in road games. The Eagles defense, while not exactly facing a slew of great QBs, has held its last five opponents to 14.8 PPG. The key here is that scoring should come to a grinding halt after halftime. 8* Under Cowboys/Eagles

10* Boston (7:40 ET): This is a huge revenge game for the Celtics, who blew a 25-point lead on Thursday and lost to the Knicks 108-105. That game was decided on a RJ Barrett three-pointer, which banked in at the buzzer. For Boston, it was a second straight loss that came down to the final shot. Earlier in the week, they lost 99-97 at home to San Antonio when Jaylen Brown’s driving layup rolled off the rim as time expired. I expect the Celtics to come out highly motivated on Saturday and win big. 

The Knicks probably can’t count on getting 41 points from Evan Fournier, which is what happened in Thursday’s game. While it was a nice come from behind win for NY, you can’t erase the fact that they were down 25 at one point. The Knicks have played a bit better of late, winning five of their last seven, however Thursday was the only game in that stretch where they topped 105 points. In addition to Fournier’s likely regression, I cannot see the team shooting 50% from three-point range again like they did last time out. 

Boston is now 11th in the Eastern Conference, one game back of the Knicks for what would be the final spot in the play-in round. So in addition to the revenge angle, there’s a real sense of urgency coming into tonight’s game. I’m expecting big games from both Brown and Jayson Tatum tonight. The Celtics SHOULD be a top eight team in the East according to most metrics. I can’t see them losing a third straight game as a favorite and they are 6-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Boston

8* Oklahoma (6:00 ET): In all due respect, Iowa State could be the most overrated team in the country right now. The Cyclones are ranked #11 in the country by the pollsters, but my own personal power ratings don’t have them in the Top 50 and they are underdogs here in Norman to an unranked Oklahoma squad. The Sooners have already knocked off a pair of Top 25 opponents this year, Florida and Arkansas. Let’s make it three on Saturday. Lay the points. 

What is most remarkable about Iowa State’s 13-1 SU start is that this team finished 2-22 SU last season, including 0-18 in Big 12 play! Yes, COVID-19 was a major reason for that, but this kind of improvement, in terms of the record, is almost unprecedented. They lost their top five scorers from last season and returned only three rotational players. While the Cyclones lone loss was to #1 Baylor (in a New Year’s showdown of unbeatens), I remain unsold. It was a VERY ugly four-point home win over Texas Tech on Wednesday, 51-47. The last two games have seen the Cyclones shoot just 8 of 39 from three-point range. They were 3 of 19 overall from the field in the 2H vs. TT. The last time ISU won a Big 12 road game was Feb ‘19. It’s a 21-game losing streak since. 

Oklahoma is also a program that’s surprising under a first year head coach. Porter Moser inherited just four scholarship players, but has made it work as the Sooners are 11-3 this year. They are coming off a loss at Baylor, but there’s no shame there as it was on the road. In Norman, the team is 8-1 SU and holding opponents to 56.6 PPG. Wednesday wasn’t even Iowa State’s lowest scoring game this year. They also beat Jackson State with just 47 points. This spread “really tells a story,” and I expect OU, the better team, to win convincingly. 8* Oklahoma 

8* Under Cornell/Princeton (6:00 ET): This is a high total for both teams and really you won’t find many higher across the entire College Basketball card today. The high O/U line isn’t without justification. Princeton has gone Over in each of its last seven lined games, including last night, which was a 84-69 win over Columbia. Cornell is 8-3 to the Over this season, but last night’s game, a 75-69 loss to Penn, did stay Under. I think this number is too high and will play accordingly. 

For those who are unfamiliar, the Ivy League schedule has its members play both Friday and Saturday night, almost every week, during conference play. With conference play just getting underway, this will be the first time this season for both Cornell and Princeton that they are playing without rest. Expect that to have an effect. First and foremost, I do not expect Princeton to continue the kind of torrid shooting we’ve seen from them most of the year. Last night, they “only” shot 46.8% in what was their first game in over two weeks. 

Cornell was much worse, shooting only 33.3% last night. The Big Red have now failed to score 70 points in three of their last four games. Princeton should keep them in check as they are holding visitors to 43% from the field at home this season. But I think the big key is that the Tigers’ offensive numbers have to start curtailing. Prior to last night, they’d shot 51% in six of their previous seven games. I just do not think that’s sustainable. This number, the highest for any Princeton game this season, is dropping quickly. So get your bet in quickly! 8* Under Cornell/Princeton

10* Denver (4:35 ET): Last week’s loss to Cincinnati means Kansas City essentially blew its opportunity to gain home field advantage in the playoffs. They still have a chance at being the top seed, mind you, but that would require not just winning here, but also Tennessee losing to Houston on Sunday, which probably isn’t going to happen. Now the Chiefs still do have some motivation on Saturday. A win would guarantee them no lower than the two-seed, meaning the possibility of two home playoff games. But I don’t think that necessarily guarantees they will go out and win by double digits here. Take the points here.

After a 3-0 start to the season, the Broncos are just 4-9 in their L13 games, leaving them at 19-29 SU in HC Vic Fangio’s three seasons here. There’s a lot more questions than answers for this team as it will miss the postseason for a sixth straight year. But Denver does have a great defense, one that is ninth overall in yards allowed, third in scoring, seventh against the pass and 14th against the run. They will be missing a few starters on that side of the ball for this final game, but recall that they were able to limit KC QB Mahomes to just 15 completions - and zero touchdown passes - in the first meeting, which was a very misleading 22-9 loss.

In that loss, the Broncos actually outgained the Chiefs 404-267 and had seven more first downs for the game. But they were limited to just three field goals and turned it over three times, one of which was an interception returned for a TD. That was the 12th straight loss for Denver to KC and while I don’t see that streak ending Saturday, look for the Broncos - thanks to their defense - to keep this one close. I think it’s going to be tough for KC to “get up” for this game after blowing a 28-14 lead at Cincinnati last week. The Chiefs’ defense gave up 475 yards, so there’s hope for Drew Lock and the Denver offense. 10* Denver

10* San Diego State (4:00 ET): Colorado State is one of the three unbeatens left in College Basketball. Baylor (#1) and USC (#7) are the others. I think this is it for the Rams, who I successfully faded earlier in the week (as 19-point favorites) against Air Force. While CSU (obviously) won the game straight up, they never came close to covering as the game was actually tied with just over 10 minutes remaining. This despite Air Force being without six players due to COVID, three of them starters and one their leading scorer. It was Colorado State’s first game in over three weeks due to cancellations and postponements as well. 

It’s a much tougher test than Air Force on Saturday as CSU heads west to visit San Diego State, who is a perfect 7-0 SU on its home floor this season. The Aztecs, along with Boise State, figure to be the Rams’ top challengers in the Mountain West this season. The hosts come into Saturday on a four-game win streak, including a 62-55 victory at UNLV last Saturday to open the MWC slate. They held the Runnin’ Rebels to just 29.7% shooting for the game, representing the lowest FG% by any SDSU opponent this season. 

I think the few extra days to prepare (compared to CSU) is a nice edge for San Diego State coming into this important conference clash. The Aztecs’ only losses this year came to BYU, USC and Michigan. They have a 15-game win streak in conference play and remember blowing a 26-point (and losing) to CSU when they hosted them last season. Third-leading scorer Lamont Butler could return from a wrist injury here. This is Colorado State’s first “true” road game of the season and it’s only being played Saturday because both teams had to reschedule this week’s original opponent. Look for the Rams to lose their first game. 10* San Diego State

10* Barcelona (12:30 ET): Despite being hit hard by COVID, Barcelona has picked up a couple of wins over the last week. A return from the winter break in La Liga saw them down Mallorca 1-0. Then they were victorious 2-1 over Linares in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday. That was quite the effort and also something that was well earned. Despite all the “doom and gloom” that’s surrounded them in this 2021/22 season, Barca has actually played much better than they are given credit for. Entering the weekend, they are 2nd in La Liga in xPts.

Doing well in xPts won’t necessarily get you to the Champions League though. You’ve got to finish in the top four. But even in this regard, there’s no reason for the market to be so down on Barcelona. They are currently fifth in the La Liga table, but only two points back of third. A win Saturday would see them leapfrog both Atletico Madrid and Real Betis. Despite being without several key players, Barca should get it done and grab the full three points here.

Granada is the opponent, an inferior side. Though Granada is coming off B2B top 10 finishes in La Liga, they were very fortunate to end up in the top half of the table last season as they were actually third from the bottom in xPts. They’re in the same spot (in expected points) this season! Barcelona was actually 1st in xPts last season, so I just don’t understand the hand-wringing with them. While unbeaten in the last three La Liga fixtures, Granada has been down in xG in two of them. Barcelona is simply a much better side and will continue their move up the table on Saturday. 10* Barcelona

8* St. John’s (12:00 ET): As I predicted, #16 Providence went down on Tuesday. But the Friars didn’t just go down, they went down HARD. It was their worst game of the season - an 88-56 loss at Marquette - which pretty much backed up my assessment that they are NOT a legit Top 25 team. In case you missed that 10* offering from me (on Marquette), allow me to reiterate that Providence isn’t even a Top 40 team in my own personal power ratings. I’m playing against them on Saturday. 

In fading Providence Tuesday night, I pegged that they were “due” for a poor effort at the defensive end and sure enough, it ended up being their worst defense effort so far this season. Marquette shot 52.5% from the field, which was the first time any opponent shot better than 50% against the Friars. Defending St. John’s won’t be easy either. The Red Storm, led by Julian Champagnie, average 83.2 PPG. That’s the 12th highest figure in the entire country. For the sake of comparison, Providence is averaging only 68.9 PPG, which is 211th in the nation.

Champagnie had a career-high 34 points and 16 rebounds in an 89-84 win over DePaul on Wednesday. His teammate, Dylan Addae-Wusu, also had career-high in that game with 17 points. Posh Alexander, another double-digit scorer, added 16. So the Red Storm have plenty of options to attack this Providence defense. The Friars have massively overachieved thus far (10-5 ATS) and G AJ Reeves is still questionable with a finger injury. This is only the third time St. John’s has been an underdog this season. Take the points, but an outright upset is likely. 8* St. John’s

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): This is the second game of a home and home between these Northwest Division rivals. Minnesota took Wednesday’s game, at home, by a score of 98-90. Both Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell returned to the lineup, however there was some obvious rust shown from that duo. I understand that the T’wolves have been much better in the select number of times their full starting five has been available (Weds was just the 11th time this year), but I’ve got to fade this team as a road favorite, which they’ve been in only one game prior to tonight all season. 

Oklahoma City is also getting back to full strength as four players made their returns to the lineup on Wednesday. One was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the team in scoring with 19 points. The Thunder also have a rookie PG, Josh Giddey, that is averaging 12.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game. Giddey recently became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple double. He’s only shot 25% from three-point range in the L2 games though, a number I expect to improve tonight. I also think Gilgeous-Alexander is set to score more than he did in Wednesday’s game. 

Oklahoma City, despite its poor overall SU record, is one of the best teams at covering the spread. They are 24-13 ATS, which is second best in the league right now, trailing only surprising Cleveland. The Thunder are 9-2 ATS their L11 games overall and here’s a trend for you: the team is a perfect 9-0 ATS this season if they allowed 100 pts or fewer in their previous game. Again, they allowed only 98 on Wednesday. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Under Spurs/76ers (7:10 ET): Philadelphia, who ended up being the top seed in the Eastern Conference last season, has started to get going of late with five consecutive victories. This win streak has them up to fifth in the Eastern Conference, two games back of 4th place and five games back of the top spot. The Sixers have certainly been scoring more (118.0 PPG) during their win streak, but a curious thing about this team is how much WORSE they’ve been at home (7-8 SU) compared to the road (14-8 SU). The Under is 11-4 in all Sixers’ home games and that’s the trend I’ll follow here. 

San Antonio is a team that I feel is better than its 15-22 SU record. They have a positive point differential on the year, which is something that only five other teams in the Western Conference (the top five) can say right now. But before a 99-97 win in Boston the other night, the Spurs had dropped four straight with three of those defeats coming on the road. Like a lot of teams, the Spurs are short-handed as a number of players remain in health & safety protocol. They did have four starters finish in double figures against Boston, but even so they still couldn’t score 100 points. Four of the last five games have seen them fail to top 105 points. 

When it comes to how the teams should perform at the offensive end tonight, I’m just not expecting big nights from either side. Philadelphia is unlikely to be as prolific here as they were vs. Orlando on Wednesday when they shot above 50% overall and 42% from three-point range. So expect a drop in scoring for them. Same with San Antonio as four starters scoring in double figures again may not be realistic. The Under is 13-6-2 in the Spurs’ previous 21 road games. 10* Under Spurs/76ers

10* Marquette (6:30 ET): The Golden Eagles treated me so nicely in their last game (an 88-56 demolishing of #16 Providence) that I’ll come right back with them again for Friday, this time as an even stronger play. Actually, this play has more to do with what preceded that impressive win over Providence Tuesday night. Marquette had lost four in a row, mostly close games. As I said in the analysis for Providence-Marquette, the Golden Eagles are a team you’ll want to “buy low” on right now as they are better than their overall record.

The opponent here is Georgetown, who has yet to play a conference game. The Hoyas last took the court on 12/18, so it’s basically been three weeks off for them due to COVID. "We've been shut down because we had a lot of guys with COVID," coach Patrick Ewing said. "There wasn't too much we could do.” Wednesday was the team’s first full practice in more than two weeks. The Hoyas’ record this season is 6-5 SU and they did lose their last game, 80-73 here at home to TCU. 

While it is highly unlikely that Marquette will be able to match its performance from Tuesday, they won’t have to, as all we are basically in need of is a straight up victory tonight. I like the Golden Eagles’ chances as they’ll have revenge on the mind from LY’s Big East Tournament. G’town has shot relatively well from three-point range this year, but so had Providence and Marquette held them to 26.3% from behind the arc. The “renaissance” continues here for Shaka Smart’s team. 10* Marquette

10* Golden State (8:05 ET): Even though Steph Curry is unlikely to play Thursday, I’m still going to back the Warriors in this game. Beating New Orleans is something they can still do, even without their superstar. The team shot a season-worst 5 of 28 from three-point range last night in Dallas, where they lost 99-82. There will be a natural progression to the mean in that category, even if Curry is unavailable. 

New Orleans is in the midst of a brutal stretch of games as they’ve previously faced the Bucks, Jazz and Suns. They lost to all three and surrendered an average of 124.7 PPG in doing so. It would be an obvious break, facing the Warriors w/o Curry, but it’s something I don’t think the Pelicans will be able to take advantage of. This is just a bad team. The Pelicans are 13-25 and second to last in the West. 

With Curry suffering the injury last night and Klay Thompson not yet back, where will the scoring come from for Golden State? How about Andrew Wiggins, who had a team-high 17 points last night. I’m also looking for a bounce back here from Draymond Green, who only had TWO points against Dallas. The Warriors beat the Pelicans by 41 earlier this year and can still win here, even without Curry. New Orleans’ leading scorer Brandon Ingram has been struggling of late. 10* Golden State

8* Tarleton State (8:00 ET): Tarleton State is off an embarrassing 22-point loss to Utah Valley on New Year’s Day, but prior to that, the Texans had been playing rather well. They’d won five of six overall as well as covered six of their last eight lined games. Defensively, the last game was their worst effort since an early season meeting with Kansas. It should be noted that the loss to Utah Valley came on the road. For the season, Tarleton State only allows 56.3 PPG at home. So I look for them to bounce back. 

Sam Houston State arrives on a three-game win streak, but the road has been a challenge for the Bearkats this season. In “true” road games, they are 0-5 SU and all five losses have been by nine points or more. SHSU hasn’t played a road game since 12/14 when they lost at North Texas. Three of the five road losses have seen them fail to score 60 points. The most points scored in any road game is 66. 

So it shouldn’t take a big scoring effort for Tarleton State to win this one. Their scoring average at home is 70.5 PPG, which is way up from what they average on the road. After shooting a dreadful 29% from the floor against Utah Valley, the Texans should see dramatic improvement at the offensive end tonight. They shot 58% in their most recent home game, which was a 22-point win over Air Force. Not only had Tarleton State won three in a row prior to the loss on 1/1, all three wins were by double digits. 8* Tarleton State

8* Under Celtics/Knicks (7:35 ET): Neither of these teams can be happy with their current record. Both are 18-20 SU, which is tied for 10th place in the Eastern Conference. Of the two, I’d say the Celtics are more likely to move up, but that’s no guarantee. Boston lost last night, 99-97 to San Antonio, thus ending a two-game win streak. The game came down to the final play, which was a missed layup by Jaylen Brown after a steal. The Celtics are 6-2 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. 

The Knicks are coming off a win Tuesday night as they beat the Pacers 104-94. Over the last five games, the team has averaged only 95.8 PPG. On the bright side, they’ve only allowed 96.4. There had been three consecutive games where neither the Knicks nor their opponent scored 100 points. That was before a 120-105 loss to Toronto on Sunday. Tuesday saw Julius Randle return to the lineup after missing several games due to COVID and he scored 30 points. RJ Barrett went for 32, but the rest of the team combined for only 42 points.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams. The first two both went Over, but one was a double overtime game. Neither team shoots all that well with Boston at 43.9% on the road and New York at 43.6% overall for the year. I don’t think NY can count on Randle and Barrett both going for 30+ again while Boston’s Jayson Tatum admitted to still being “rusty” after catching COVID for a second time. The Knicks are 5-1 Under their L6 games while the Celtics are 6-2 Under in their L8. Look for those trends to continue here. 8* Under Celtics/Knicks

8* Lazio (8:30 AM ET): Only four points currently separate eighth place Lazio and ninth place Empoli in the Serie A table. However, the gap should likely be a lot larger than that, at least based on the two sides’ respective goal differentials. Lazio is +5 on the season while Empoli is -4. Even that difference is a bit understated when you consider Empoli is just 15th in xPts (expected points). A win here would move Lazio into a fifth place tie with Juventus as a trip to face first place Inter looms this weekend. Getting the full three points here would be huge for the home side. I think they pull out the win.

Empoli comes in winless over their last two matches. They played to a 1-1 draw with Spezia, then were beaten 4-2 by AC Milan right before the break. That loss to AC Milan was their only defeat in the last seven competitions, however I’m anticipating a slide in the new year based on the fact Empoli will face three of three of the top eight Serie A sides here in January. While they have scored 15 goals over the last seven matches, the last time Empoli was able to keep a “clean sheet” was September 26th. They have the third highest number of expected goals allowed in the league this year.

Nevertheless, Empoli has to be feeling rather good about itself in its first year back in the Italian top flight. They’ve already created a 16-point gap between themselves and the drop zone, so it looks like they’ll be back for next season, which was the only goal coming into 2021/22. Meanwhile, Lazio is hungry for one of the European spots and needs to move up. Having the second best home record in Serie A, I Biancocelesti should prevail here, building off their victories over Genoa and Venezia (both three-goal efforts) before the break. 8* Lazio

9* Hellas Verona (8:30 AM ET): In the Lazio-Empoli writeup, I discussed the gap that exists in the middle of the table right now. Lazio is on the right side of it and should continue to move up. The two teams below them, Empoli and Bologna, should start to fall. One team that should be looking to take advantage is Verona, who comes in 12th in the table with 24 points, but has a better GD than either Empoli and Bologna. A win here would potentially move Verona into the top half, which is where I think they belong.

Spezia is most definitely a bottom five side this season, not a shock considering they were only promoted back into Serie A last season. Currently five points clear of the drop zone, Spezia did pull off its most impressive win of the season last time out, stunning Napoli 1-0 in Naples. But before that, they had been winless in seven straight across all competitions, which includes a 2-0 loss to second tier side Lecce in the Coppa Italia last month. Spezia currently has the third worst GD (-20) in all of Serie A.

This is pretty close to a “must win” for Verona, if they want to have any hope of being reduced to a “mid-table” side the rest of the way. Ultimately, that will probably be their fate, but this is a fixture they should win. It’s a four-match winless run that they are on, with three losses, creating a sense of urgency here. They destroyed Spezia 4-0 back in October. It’s not going to be quite that lopsided on Thursday, but you should look for the visitors to grab all three points. 9* Hellas Verona

8* Under Raptors/Bucks (8:05 ET): So this is obviously a case of “bucking” the recent trend that has seen Toronto go Over in each of its last eight games. That’s a pretty long streak and during that time the team has exceeded its season average in points scored (107.6 per game) seven times. The Raptors are off B2B 120+ point efforts in beating the Knicks and Spurs, but I think they’ll find it much harder to score tonight when they face a Milwaukee team that is allowing just 42.5% shooting here at home. 

Now the Bucks have also been doing a lot of scoring themselves recently. They scored 136 pts in B2B games last week. But that was followed with a shocking loss to the Pistons last time out, 115-106, as a 16-point home favorite. The Bucks’ recent schedule has been incredibly “soft” with two games against the Magic, one against the Pelicans and then the Pistons. Lack of defense has been a bit troubling for the defending NBA Champs recently. They’ve allowed 110+ points in five straight games. I say that streak ends tonight. 

Toronto’s scoring is clearly due to subside while Milwaukee’s defense is set to improve. But what kind of defensive effort should we expect from the Raptors tonight? Well, over the last three games, they’ve held opponents to an average of just 105.7 PPG. The Bucks are coming off their second worst three-point shooting performance of the season. They made only 11 of 46 attempts from beyond the arc against the Pistons. Also note that when these teams faced off in Toronto last month, the final score was 97-93 (Raptors won). 8* Under Raptors/Bucks

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The Nets have shockingly lost all three games since Kevin Durant’s return to the lineup. Those losses, all of which saw the Nets favored, were to Philadelphia, the Clippers and Memphis. The first two saw them blow fourth quarter leads while Monday was just a case of being outplayed by the Grizzlies. Durant and James Harden combined to shoot just 13 of 38 from the field, including 4 for 15 from three-point range. Overall, it was just a bad shooting night for Brooklyn as they were 9 of 31 from behind the arc and 12 of 21 at the free throw line. 

Fortunately, tonight the Nets are facing an Indiana team that is both short-handed and struggling. Without leading scorer Malcolm Brogden, the Pacers have dropped five in a row and are now 10 games below .500. They probably deserve a better fate as they’ve lost 9 of 10 games that were decided by three points or less. But this is NOT the matchup for the Pacers to “get right” as Brooklyn will certainly be motivated to end its own losing skid and the last five head to head meetings have all gone to the Nets, three of those being decided by double digits. 

There’s a curious thing going on with Brooklyn as they are just 10-9 SU at home, but 13-3 SU on the road. They did beat the Pacers at home earlier this season, 105-98. The Nets have cleaned up against sub-.500 opposition, going 13-2 SU. Oh, by the way, Kyrie Irving is expected to make his season debut tonight. That comes at a time when Indiana has eight players still in health and safety protocols. Lay the points. 10* Brooklyn

8* Under Nebraska/Michigan State (7:00 ET): Nebraska is obviously one of the weaker teams in the Big 10, but they did just take Ohio State to overtime on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Cornhuskers, they lost that game 87-79 and now must turn around to head to East Lansing and face top 10 Michigan State. The Spartans are off to a 3-0 start in conference play after defeating Northwestern 73-67 on the road Sunday. That was their fifth straight game to go Over, but this O/U line is very high and I’m going Under. 

In fact, it’s looking like this could close as the highest O/U line in any game for Sparty this season. The previous high was 149 against Toledo and that pushed with MSU winning 81-68. What’s remarkable about the last game going Over the total is Sparty shot just 38.5% from the field while holding N’western to 32.3%. Tonight’s game may not feature such poor shooting, but the O/U line being so high means that’s okay. Only two MSU games this season have seen more than 150 total points scored: the opener vs Kansas (161) and a game with Oakland (168). 

It is incredibly unlikely that Nebraska will win this game. They are 1-24 SU their L25 road games and are just 6-45 SU their L51 games as an underdog. They’ve lost 70 of the last 73 times they’ve been a road dog of at least 12.5 points including 0 for the last 15. Because the Cornhuskers are shooting just 27.9% from three-point range, Michigan State should easily keep them in check. Assuming this one isn’t close at the end, there won’t be much fouling and the home team can just shorten the game with long possessions. Note that Nebraska’s game with Ohio State was tied at 72 at the end of regulation. 8* Under Nebraska/Michigan State

10* Dayton (7:00 ET): So the A-10 seems to be a bit “down” this year. There’s no team worthy of the Top 25 nor is there a clear-cut favorite to win the league. Here we have two of the stalwarts, VCU and Dayton, ready to open their conference schedule. VCU has won four in a row to get to 7-4 SU on the season. While two of the Rams’ losses are to Baylor and UConn, the others were to Wagner and Chattanooga. They should be respected for their defense (3rd in efficiency), but VCU’s problem is that it can’t score consistently (just 60.5 PPG). I think that costs them here on the road. 

Dayton has only managed a 2-2 split in its last four games, however both losses (SMU, Ole Miss) did come on the road. The Flyers come in at 8-5 SU on the year. Their most impressive win of the season obviously was the one against Kansas, which took place the day after Thanksgiving, on a neutral floor. Since then, the Flyers have been a bit inconsistent, although they’ve won all four home games, one of them against Virginia Tech as a 2.5-point dog. 

VCU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog so far this season, but this is a short number and Dayton is playing with big-time revenge after losing all three head to head matchups last season. The Flyers can also defend (just 61.2 PPG allowed at home) and they are more consistent than VCU at the offensive end. They’re shooting 48% on the season and averaging 70.4 PPG. Tonight is also VCU’s first game in three weeks, so they are likely to come out quite rusty. 10* Dayton

8* Air Force (9:00 ET): There are still three undefeated teams in College Basketball. One is #1 Baylor. The second is #7 USC, who I’d say is slightly overrated (but still a Top 20 team). The third is Colorado State. Because they are 10-0, the Rams are obviously ranked. But my power ratings consider them to be just barely one of the top 35 teams in America. While it’s unlikely that CSU’s first loss comes tonight, I do think that this is a lot of points to lay in what will be their first time taking the court in over three weeks. 

Air Force is 8-4 SU. They just pulled a massive upset in their game, beating Utah State 49-47 as 13-point dogs. That was actually the fourth straight game where the Flyboys did not score 50 points. The previous three were all double digit losses on the road. Let the record show that Utah State is one of the better Mountain West teams, so the AFA isn’t going to be intimidated heading into Fort Collins tonight. If anything, they should be supremely motivated facing an undefeated (and ranked) opponent. 

COVID is obviously the reason for Colorado State’s long layoff. They had three postponements in December and don’t be surprised if the conference’s best shooting team comes out a little “cold” tonight. Air Force has held six different opponents below 40% shooting this season, including Utah State last week. That the Falcons were able to win that game, while shooting just 1 of 19 from three-point range, was pretty remarkable. They’ll shoot better from deep tonight and because they play at such a slow tempo, should easily stay within the number. They’ve had fewer cancellations, thus will be in better “game shape.” 8* Air Force

10* Marquette (9:00 ET): Providence comes into this game ranked #16 in the country. But despite the Friars being on an eight-game win streak, my own personal power ratings are unimpressed, saying that not only does this team NOT deserve to be in the Top 25, but they are not even a Top 40 team in the country right now! The defensive numbers have been solid, but let’s see how the Friars perform here when they are playing a second straight “true” road game, a first for them this season. 

Marquette is going to be desperate here as they have not won a home game since 11/30. Coming off a double overtime loss to Creighton on New Year’s Day, a game where they were down by as many as 17, Shaka Smart’s team is certainly due to turn things around. The Golden Eagles have now dropped their last three at home, shooting less than 40 percent in those losses. Again, you’ve got to figure that number will improve here, even if they are facing a team that has posted a very strong defensive FG% on the year. 

One thing I do not see happening for Providence tonight is them shooting 8 of 15 (53.3%) from three-point range again, like they did in Saturday’s win at DePaul. Incredibly, the Friars have held their three previous Big East opponents to 33.3% shooting, which is astronomically low. You almost have to figure that number is going to go up and with Marquette’s own shooting due to IMPROVE, tonight seems like a “perfect storm” of sorts for the home team to pull an “upset.” Providence is only averaging 61.4 PPG on 38.9% shooting away from home. 10* Marquette

10* Kansas State (9:00 ET): LSU is going to have a non-scholarship QB taking snaps in this game. That sounds bad. The reason for the situation is because starter Max Johnson transferred to Texas A&M, backup Myles Brennan is hurt and freshman Garrett Nussmeier didn’t want to lose his redshirt by playing. In addition to this dire circumstance under center, LSU barely has enough players (reportedly only 44 on scholarship still available) to suit up for this game because of COVID. And they have an interim coaching staff that probably could care less about winning. You’ve absolutely got to fade the Tigers here. 

Meanwhile, Kansas State has no COVID issues and is dealing with zero opt-outs. The Wildcats are getting their starting QB (Skylar Thompson) back from injury and clearly will be the more motivated side in the Texas Bowl Tuesday night. This is a chance for KSU to beat a SEC school and end its season on a positive note. They lost the final two regular season games and were without Thompson in the finale vs. Texas (only lost 22-17). In the last three games that Thompson has finished, the Wildcats averaged 33.3 PPG.

Even when they were at full strength, something they are not close to being tonight, LSU wasn’t all that good this year. It was a 6-6 regular season in Baton Rouge and the only teams the Tigers defeated by more than seven points were: McNeese State, Central Michigan and LA Monroe, all games where they were favored by at least 19.5 points. Tonight is setting up to be a real embarrassment for the LSU program, almost as embarrassing as incoming HC Brian Kelly faking a southern accent in his first public appearance in front of the fanbase. 10* Kansas State

8* Michigan (7:05 ET): So both these teams are 7-5 straight up. That’s definitely surprising on the Michigan side as the Wolverines were once ranked as high as #4 in the country in the early part of the season. Juwan Howard’s team comes into Tuesday’s game off a pretty shocking 85-71 loss at UCF, a game they led at the half. But the Maize and Blue simply could not get stops in the second half of that game as their opponents shot a preposterous 72 percent, including 8 for 8 from three-point range. 

It’s highly unlikely that Rutgers - or any future Michigan opponent for that matter - is going to shoot the ball that well again this season. The Scarlet Knights do have an impressive win on their resume, beating then #1 Purdue at the buzzer back on December 9th. They’ve subsequently wrapped up non-conference play with easy wins over Maine and Central Conn State. While the Scarlet Knights are 7-1 at home so far (0-4 on the road), this is going to be a tough game for them. They have never beaten Michigan since joining the Big 10. 

I believe the Wolverines are set to turn things around now that conference play is in full effect. My power ratings still consider them to be among the Top 25 teams in the nation, despite their disappointing record. Note that they’ve won by double digits off each of their previous four losses. Rutgers isn’t even the top 100 in my power ratings and they have a lower efficiency rating both offensively and defensively compared to Michigan. Lay the points. 8* Michigan

8* Under Maryland/Iowa (9:00 ET): It’s tough competition in the Big 10 this year as you’ve got seven teams from this conference currently ranked in my Top 30. I think we can all agree who the best team is (Purdue), but after that you’ve got six teams pretty closely congested. Iowa is among that group and the Hawkeyes will take a three-game win streak into tonight’s clash with Maryland. The Hawkeyes, who do have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, topped 90 points in all three of their recent wins. But those were also all non-conference games. Maryland should prove to be a lot stingier. 

The Terrapins were a team that opened the year ranked in the Top 25, but I was not a real believer in what was going on in College Park. I played against them in an outright loss to George Mason and since that time the Terps are 5-3 including a 67-61 loss to Northwestern in their only conference outing thus far. This team struggles to shoot the three (30.2% for the year). Friday’s win over Brown (81-67) was their highest scoring game in awhile, but still wouldn’t have gone Over this total, nor would have any game but one since the season opener. 

Iowa’s two previous conference games were rough as they lost both of them. Now they played Purdue and Illinois, who I think are the top two teams in the league. There was also a dreadful 53-point effort in a blowout loss to Iowa State. The Hawkeyes have followed those three straight losses with the three-game win streak I mentioned earlier, but scoring against Maryland will be a lot tougher than it was against the likes of SE Louisiana and W Illinois. The Terps are holding teams below 40% shooting for the year. Good for Iowa then that they allow only 40.2% shooting at home. 8* Under Maryland/Iowa

10* Under Browns/Steelers (8:15 ET): After the events of Sunday, the Browns are eliminated from playoff contention. The Steelers basically are as well. So it’s all about “pride” Monday Night. Cleveland has revenge for a 15-10 home loss on Halloween, which dropped their all-time record vs. Ben Roethlisberger to a woeful 3-24-1. This will almost certainly be Big Ben’s final home game in a Steelers uniform and I’m sure his teammates will want to send him off with a win. Given how poorly these offenses have performed much of this season, I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

I won with the Under in the Browns’ game last week, which ended up being a 24-22 loss in Green Bay. Embattled QB Baker Mayfield played horribly, tossing four interceptions. As discussed in the analysis for that X-mas Day play, the Browns’ offense had previously been held to 17 points or less in seven of nine games. Excluding defensive TD’s, they’ve topped 22 just twice since Week 3. Luckily, the defense has kept the Browns in many games this season. It has allowed 24 points or less in eight of the last nine games and has allowed 16 points or less in half the games this season. 

It’s not a great Pittsburgh offense anymore. They’ve failed to score a single touchdown in the first half since Week 11. Personally, I don’t think the Steelers are any good; they’ve been outscored by 70 points this year and have been behind by double digits in five of the last six games. They’ve led for about 10 minutes of actual game time in that stretch. In four division games so far, the Steelers’ offense has averaged just 13.8 PPG. But I still trust the defense. The last two home games have seen the Steelers allow just 19 and 13 points. Both of those went Under. So will this one. 10* Under Browns/Steelers

10* Under Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): These are two teams I could see sliding down the standings before we hit the All-Star Break. Washington had been 6-0 in games decided by three points or less this season. That was before losing at the buzzer against Chicago on Saturday, 120-119. The kind of luck the Wizards were having in close games is something that is certainly hard to sustain over the course of the season. This team actually has the third worst point differential in the entire Eastern Conference entering Monday. 

Charlotte just got blasted at home last night, 133-99 by Phoenix. That ended a three-game SU win streak and four-game ATS win streak. But it did make it five straight Unders for the Hornets. Because they allow the most points per game in the entire NBA, Hornets’ totals are consistently among the highest in the league. I think this affords us a nice opportunity to start taking some Unders as scoring is down league-wide this season and the trend figures to hit Charlotte sooner than later. 

The Hornets only shot 25% from three-point range last night. Any gains in that area tonight will be nullified by certainly allowing fewer points to the Wizards than what they gave up against the Suns. Washington was without seven players for its last game, so I was surprised to see them score so many points. They play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Charlotte is only averaging 104.9 points in division games this season and the Under is a perfect 5-0 in the L5 meetings between these teams (2-0 this season). 10* Under Hornets/Wizards

10* Over Athletic Bilbao/Osasuna (3:00 ET): I’m of the opinion that Athletic Bilbao should be a lot higher in the La Liga table. They currently sit in 11th place, but in xPts they are 4th. The biggest reason for that discrepancy seems to be an extraordinary lack of luck when it comes to scoring goals. The difference between the number of actual goals scored (17) and xG (expected goals) is -11.29, easily the largest in La Liga and any of Europe’s biggest four leagues, for that matter. As 2022 gets underway, I think you should look for more goals from Athletic Club moving forward. I’m on the Over this week. 

Osasuna is another mid-table side, currently 14th with 22 points. That’s only two adrift of their opponents this week and they’ve scored the same number of goals on the campaign. The difference though is Osasuna has conceded six more goals than Athletic Bilbao. It’s been a long time since Los Rojillos won in the Spanish top flight, mid-October to be precise, but three of the last four have finished level, including a 2-2 draw with Barcelona back on Dec 12th. But they are coming off an embarrassing 1-0 loss to Getafe before the break where the lone goal was scored in stoppage time (93rd minute). 

While Osasuna has been kept scoreless in two of its last three La Liga fixtures, they did score six goals in two wins in the Copa del Rey last month. We don't need many goals here to cash an Over here and with Athletic Club due to break out, I wouldn’t be surprised if they send this one Over themselves. But I’m predicting both sides will get on the scoresheet in this one. It was 2-2 in the most recent meeting, which was back in May. The last two Bilbao matches have seen five and three total goals scored. 10* Athletic Bilbao/Osasuna

7* Manchester United (12:30 ET): While COVID continues to wreak havoc on the Premier League schedule, the predominant story on the pitch is going to be who can rise up and finish fourth in the English top flight. The top three sides in this league are well-established and it’s looking more and more like Man City is going to make it B2B titles. But the race for the final Champions League spot is wide open and going to be quite interesting. Both Man U and the Wolves fancy themselves as “players” in the race, but I’m with the oddsmakers here in giving a strong edge to the Red Devils at home. 

Manchester United is currently only four points adrift of fourth place Arsenal and they have two games in hand. So they’re in a good spot right now, especially on an eight-match unbeaten run, which coincides with the arrival of new boss Ralf Rangnick. The new manager bounce seems quite real at Old Trafford where Man U were 3-1 winners over Burnley on Thursday. That was a solid effort following a disappointing 1-1 draw with Newcastle United. The bottom line is that the Red Devils know they can not afford to share the points in this critical fixture and three straight home wins tells me they’re likely to capture the full three here. 

Wolverhampton has dealt with two straight postponements and was last on the pitch all the way back on 12/19 when they played to a goalless draw vs. Chelsea. Certainly, a result like that shows the Wolves won’t “roll over” for Man U here, but they are the second lowest scoring side in the EPL and have failed to score more than one goal in eight consecutive matches. True to form, the Wolves lost 1-0 last season here at Old Trafford. They are only two spots back of Man U, but it’s a six-point difference and the Wolves have just one win in their last six EPL fixtures. 7* Manchester United.

10* Under T’Wolves/Lakers (9:35 ET): The Lakers finally played a good game the other night, beating the Blazers 139-106. I don’t think they’ll shoot 55.3% from the floor again though, or even close to that tonight against the T’wolves. LeBron James had a season-high 43 points in that win on New Year’s Eve. It should be noted that three days earlier the team shot better than 50% and topped 130 points in a win over the Rockets. The next game they scored 99 in a loss to the Grizzlies. 

So we’ve got one team (the Lakers) with a virtual guaranteed drop in offensive production from its last game. Then you’ve got Minnesota, who is having COVID issues. Their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, is among those that are currently out of the lineup. The T’wolves have lost four of five since the COVID issues reared their ugly head and in the last two games they have averaged only 99 points. Since the start of December, there has been only one game where Minnesota shot better than 47% from the floor. That’s remarkable. 

There have been two previous meetings between these teams this season. Both went Under. Surprisingly, Minnesota was the winner each time, holding the Lakers to 92 and 83 points. The T’wolves have gone Under in 10 of their 13 games this season against teams that have losing records. The Lakers are 18-19 on the year. This seems like a high total, especially with the Lakers 12-2 Under following a SU win by 10 or more points. 10* Under T’wolves/Lakers

8* Green Bay (8:25 ET): The Packers should destroy the Vikings Sunday Night as the road team will be without QB Kirk Cousins. This is a revenge game for Green Bay, which lost the first meeting in Minnesota, 34-31 on a last second field goal. While they lost, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense averaged an impressive 8.6 yards per play against the Vikings’ defense. At home, the Packers are 7-0 this season and averaging 29.7 PPG. The Vikings’ defensive numbers get much worse on the road. 

While Rodgers figures to lead the Packers’ offense to a big day, you can’t expect much here from the Minnesota offense. The loss of Cousins is huge as he threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting. It will be Sean Mannion making just his third career start on Sunday night and he won’t have WR Adam Thielen to throw to. It’s expected to be very cold in Lambeau, which will have an adverse effect on a Vikings team that plays its home games indoors. The defense gives up 26.9 PPG on the road. 

Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 ATS in primetime games this season and 12-4 ATS in them all-time under HC Matt LaFleur. Overall, they are 11-4 ATS this season, including 6-1 at home. Rodgers has been absolutely on fire of late with a 16-0 TD-INT ratio the last five games. He is 25-12 ATS at home vs. NFC North teams. The Packers are looking to lock down home field advantage for the NFC playoffs, which would be huge for them given their record at Lambeau. I am predicting this will easily be the Vikings’ biggest loss of the season. 8* Green Bay

10* Drake (8:00 ET): Both Drake and Missouri State are off to winning starts this season. Drake is 10-4 while Missouri State is 9-5. But Drake is 1-0 in conference play, having picked up a win over Valparaiso back on December 2nd, while Missouri State lost its only Missouri Valley game, as a 6.5-point favorite at Illinois State on December 1st. Now, after both teams won big against non-DI teams earlier in the week, it’s a permanent return to conference play. I like the road team to at least cover here.

Drake has struggled to cover games this season (just 3-9 ATS overall), especially on the road (0-5 ATS), but they have been an underdog to just two teams this season: Alabama and Clemson. Despite the ATS struggles, the Bulldogs are on a four-game SU win streak. The last five seasons have seen them really own Missouri State with an 8-2 SU head to head edge, including a 3-0 season sweep in 2020-21. 

Missouri State has a shorter turnaround between games as they last played on Thursday while Drake’s last game was on Tuesday. While the Bears “couldn’t miss” in their last game, consider the opposition and they are also 0-4 ATS the last four times they’ve been off a game where they scored 90 or more points. That includes two straight up losses this season. Drake is 7-3 ATS following a win by 20 or more points and I think they are a lot better than their ATS record. Grab the points. 10* Drake

10* Detroit (4:25 ET): The Lions obviously don’t win many games (they are 2-12-1 straight up), but they do cover regularly. I like them this week plus the points against what is likely to be an unmotivated Seattle side. The Lions’ 10-5 ATS record is third best in the league, only trailing the Packers and Cowboys. Five of their losses this season have come by four points or less, including last week’s (20-16) against Atlanta. Since the bye, they are 6-1 ATS with three of their four SU losses coming by four or less. They tied the Steelers and beat the Vikings and Cardinals during that time. For the season, the Lions are 9-2 ATS as an underdog of four or more points and they’ve covered four straight times off a loss.

Seattle has only been outscored by a single point this year, but they are 5-10 SU and were officially eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s loss to the Bears. Again, I have to come back to the issue of motivation as the Seahawks are just the fourth team since 2018 to be at least a six-point favorites despite entering the game with at least 10 losses. The previous teams in this role all lost the game outright! Over the L11 games, Seattle is only 3-8 SU with two of the wins coming against Jacksonville and Houston. They are 2-5 SU at home this season and with nothing left to play for, them laying points seems a bit dicey. 

QB Jared Goff is doubtful to play here, but his impact is minimal. The return of RB D’Andre Swift is significant though as are the contributions of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is just the second rookie to have 7+ receptions in four straight games. Russell Wilson has not been himself since returning from injury as he ranks just 22nd in QBR and has now failed to throw for 300 yards in 10 consecutive games, his longest stretch since his rookie year. The Seahawks’ offense is dead last in the league in third down conversion rate (33.7%), a massive problem. Take the points. 10* Detroit

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): I know that the 49ers may not have Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but based on how the QB performed last week, that may not be a bad thing. Plus the Niners will be facing the Texans, one of the league’s worst teams. If Garoppolo can’t go (and it’s looking doubtful that he will), then it will be rookie Trey Lance getting the start. Lance is a first round draft pick, so he’s not “chopped liver.” San Francisco SHOULD have beaten Tennessee last week; they led 10-0 at halftime and ended up outgaining the Titans 389-278 (not to mention 6.7 to 4.8 yards per play). 

Houston has won back to back games, but is still just 4-11 SU on the year and has the third worst point differential (-153) in the NFL. Let us not forget that two of the Texans’ four wins came against the Jaguars. Last week’s 41-29 upset of the Chargers was certainly shocking as the offense gained over 400 yards for the first time since Week 1. The Texans also benefited from three Chargers’ turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. The bottom line is that I still consider them to be one of the very worst teams in this league. 

This will actually be the first time under HC Kyle Shanahan that San Francisco is favored by more than 10 points. The team has generally struggled to cover as home chalk during Shanahan’s tenure, but there is no doubt in my mind that they will win this game and likely move on to the playoffs. Houston won’t be able to run the ball in this matchup, not just because they are last in the league in rushing offense, but also due to the fact the SF defense is #2 in the league at stopping the run. Meanwhile, the Niners get their leading rusher (Elijah Mitchell) back from injury this week. Lay the points. 8* San Francisco

10* Over Broncos/Chargers (4:05 ET): This is the second meeting of the season between these long-standing AFC West rivals. Denver won the first, 28-13, as a 2.5-point home dog. I was on the Broncos in that spot, but it was actually a much luckier win that the final score indicates as the Chargers had the edge in total yards. Turnovers hurt LA that day, much like they did last week in a stunning 41-29 loss to Houston. Coming off a bad loss like that, I wouldn’t want to lay points with the Chargers here. But I think it’s a given they will put up more points in this second matchup. Give me the Over. 

The Chargers’ last four games have all gone Over. They’ve averaged 33.8 points in that time, but unfortunately are also allowing 29.5 PPG. So that’s an average of 63.3 total points for the four games. We don’t need nearly that many to get the Over here. QB Herbert will ensure that the offense points up points here. The Chargers are third in the league, averaging 30.3 PPG at home. But the defense remains a liability. It gives up the fourth most rushing yards per game in the league. The Bolts have allowed 140+ rush yards eight times this season and 170+ four times. 

Denver games typically go much differently as they have the highest Under percentage in the league this season and their Under percentage under HC Vic Fangio is highest in the league during that time. Drew Lock will be the starting QB for the Broncos, so look for him to lean on the running game. Again, that’s a good thing, given what I outlined above. The Broncos averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the first meetings with the Chargers, a game that they finished with 28 points. Both teams should top 21 this time. 10* Over Broncos/Chargers

8* Washington (1:00 ET): This is the Football Team’s second crack at the Eagles in three weeks as they lost 27-17 in Philadelphia (on a Tuesday) back in Week 15. That game had to be moved because of COVID and while that’s still an issue in the Washington locker room, they will have some key players back on Sunday that missed the first meeting. Pro Bowl guard Scherff, safety Curl and top tackler Holcomb are all set to return. Most importantly, the team won’t have to rely on third string QB Garrett Gilbert this time. (Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen reportedly will both take snaps). Despite being so short-handed in that first meeting with the Eagles, Washington was still tied at halftime on the road.

Now, in between games vs. the Eagles, it was obviously a horrible effort last Sunday night from the Football Team as they were lambasted 56-14 by Dallas. That loss is fresh on everyone’s mind, so I don’t expect a lot of people rushing to the window to bet Washington this week. However, it’s important to note that Philadelphia has some serious injury issues at the running back position with Miles Sanders and perhaps Jordan Howard out. That’s a big deal for an offense that leads the league in rushing. 

I know that these are teams trending in different directions, but Washington should be motivated after taking such an embarrassing loss in front of a national TV audience last week. Technically, they are still alive in the playoff race. I see value on them getting this many points. What’s interesting about the Eagles is that they were underdogs in each of their first seven games and have been favored (or a pick ‘em) in the last eight. Before the last three weeks, they’d never been favored by more than four points. 8* Washington

10* Dixie State (9:00 ET): Abilene Christian won its final 10 games of 2021. They covered the spread in all seven that were lined. But it was a close call 48 hours ago when they won at Utah Valley State, 80-76 as 1.5-point favorites, in the WAC opener. Tonight marks the first time since opening the season with three straight road games that the Wildcats are playing consecutive games away from home. Given how many points they are laying here, I think it’s an appropriate time to fade.

Dixie State will be looking to rebound from consecutive losses tonight. The Trail Blazers had previously won six in a row before this losing skid. After getting blown out at Southern Utah on 12/22, Dixie State suffered just its second home loss of the year on 12/30, 83-69 to Tarleton State. They were three-point dogs for that game. The fact Tarleton State shot 50% for the game from three-point range did not help. Also, Dixie State attempted only 11 free throws compared to 22 for TSU. 

Dixie State had been 6-1 SU at home, prior to losing Thursday. They average 89.1 PPG for the year here. I see them putting enough points on the board tonight to easily cover this number. Abilene Christian’s success at the betting window has had an obvious influence on this line for tonight and it’s too high. It was shocking that they were able to win their last games, despite allowing 58% shooting. The favorite is due for an “off night” while the home team is going to be desperate to avoid a third straight loss. Take the points. 10* Dixie State

10* Over Baylor/Ole Miss (8:45 ET): After seven straight Unders to end the regular season, I expect Ole Miss to come out “flying” in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Night. The same can be said for Baylor, whose last four games all went Under. This number is shockingly low for two teams that combine to average almost 68.5 points/game. I won’t be the least bit surprised if this one goes Over by the end of the third quarter.

Matt Corral of Ole Miss is one of only four QBs in the country to throw for 20 touchdowns and run for at least 10. In addition to that, the Rebels are the only team in America with at least four 500+ yard rushers. Overall, this offense was incredibly balanced and wound up fourth in the county in total offense, averaging 282.4 YPG passing and 224.2 YPG rushing. The Rebels average 35.9 PPG.

Baylor has a really strong defense, but has not faced an offense as good as Ole Miss all season. Fortunately for the Bears, they should also be able to put plenty of points on the board here. They  average 32.5 PPG overall. Look for the Bears to be able to run the ball very effectively in this game; they average 5.2 yards per carry. They’ll have to, in order to trade points with Corral. 10* Over Baylor/Ole Miss 

10* Brooklyn (7:30 ET): The Clippers have the unenviable task of playing on both New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. After losing last night in Toronto, 116-108 as a seven-point dog, it’s a brutal spot here having to go to Brooklyn. The Nets will take no mercy on their unrested visitors; they are looking to bounce back from a surprising loss on Thursday, 110-102 to Philadelphia where they were five-point home favorites. It’s a big number, but you’ll want to lay the points in this matchup. 

Now, if you recall, I faded the Nets in that outright loss to the 76ers. I did so, despite Kevin Durant being back for Brooklyn. Durant actually played better than I expected, scoring 33 points in his first game in two weeks. James Harden also had 33 points. But the Nets had no answers defensively for Joel Embiid and also struggled from three-point range where they were just 7 of 27. That three-point shooting will improve tonight and a second game with Durant back in the lineup should see the Nets looking like a well-oiled machine. 

Now the Clippers are not just in the second night of a back to back, they are also extremely short-handed as Paul George is out indefinitely with an elbow injury. LA is just 2-6 SU its last eight games and this will be the second time in less than a week that they’ve got to face the Nets w/o rest. Last week, at home, they lost to them 124-108 and the Nets didn’t even have Durant for that game. The Clippers are now 0-4 SU and ATS the last four meetings with Brooklyn and this could be the ugliest result yet. 10* Brooklyn

10* Ohio State (5:00 ET): So I am fully aware of the opt-outs for the Buckeyes. That coupled with the way their regular season ended (loss to Michigan) have many questioning OSU’s resolve for this Rose Bowl Game vs. Utah. But have we all forgotten that Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country? Power ratings will never determine the College Football Playoff, but it’s still worth mentioning that virtually every set of my power ratings (including my own) would label the Buckeyes as the third best team in the country. With this line coming down so much, we are getting an incredible value on the favorite for this one. My power ratings suggest the number should be close to TWO TOUCHDOWNS! 

Utah comes in as one of the “hottest teams in the country,” but they also hail from the Pac 12, which is probably the weakest of the five power conferences. The two wins over Oregon were impressive, but other than those, it’s a lot of weak opponents that they were able to take advantage of. Ohio State, even minus the opt-outs, is easily the best team the Utes will have faced all season. I also think the notion that Ohio State “doesn’t care” about this game is a bit premature. No Buckeyes team has lost B2B games since 2013. They will be eager to atone for the loss to Michigan. 

Ohio State had the #1 offense in the country this year, averaging 551.4 yards and 45.5 points per game. Not sure how Utah can compete with that. On the field for the Buckeyes on New Year’s Day will still be QB CJ Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. This offense is still going to put points on the board. This is the shortest spread for any OSU game all season, even lower than when they visited Ann Arbor. Again, I believe it to be the best value of not just the bowls, but the entire College Football season. 10* Ohio State

8* Under Oklahoma State/Notre Dame (1:00 ET): Both of these teams were hoping to make the College Football Playoff, but instead had to “settle” for a first-ever meeting in the Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame’s only loss this year was to Cincinnati, at home, something that all but ensured the Fighting Irish could not slip past the Bearcats into the top four. Oklahoma State had two losses, both close, one at Iowa State and then the other in the Big 12 Championship Game to Baylor. These teams have combined to go 18-7 ATS, so I’ve got no interest in the side, but I do think we’re getting a low-scoring game here. Take the Under. 

Oklahoma State has the third ranked defense in the country in terms of yards allowed (278.4) and is eighth in scoring (16.8 PPG). They are great both against the run (5th in FBS) and the pass (12th). They do a great job on third down, allowing conversions only 26.1% of the time, which is second best in the country. But perhaps most impressive of all is that the Cowboys are #1 nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss. Notre Dame does average 35.3 PPG, but their high-scoring games were against mostly bad teams, and they are just middle of the pack in yards gained. Also, RB Kyren Williams won’t be playing in the Fiesta Bowl. So don’t expect the Fighting Irish to score a ton on Saturday. 

Similarly, Oklahoma State only averages 22.8 PPG away from Stillwater. Notre Dame has a pretty stout defense, giving up just 18.3 PPG and over the L10 games, they held seven opponents to 16 points or less. The last four games saw the Irish allow just 23 total points and that includes 14 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. Not only is the Under 6-1 in Oklahoma State’s last seven bowl games, but it is a perfect 8-0 their L8 bowl games as a dog. Notre Dame is 4-0 Under its last four bowl games. 8* Under Oklahoma State/Notre Dame

8* Marquette (12:00 ET): Creighton is obviously the hotter team heading into this Saturday Big East matchup, but I think it’s a great spot to jump on Marquette. 

The Golden Eagles (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) have lost their last three games and four of the last five. The lone win in that stretch was by a single point, 64-63, over Kansas State. Furthermore, Marquette has not won at home since November 30th. After a 5-0 start to the season at home, they lost two games here last month, both to strong teams - UCLA and UConn. The most recent loss was 78-71 to UConn on Dec 21 and the Eagles were without Darryl Morsell, their second leading scorer. Morsell is expected to be back in the lineup this afternoon. Regardless, I like the home team as essentially a “pick ‘em” in this matchup. Not only is Marquette desperate for a win, but Creighton is in a major “letdown spot.” 

Creighton is coming off a shocking performance, a 79-59 upset of Villanova where they were seven-point home underdogs. While the upset took place all the way back on December 17th, it will certainly be a near impossibility for the Blue Jays to match their performance and intensity from that day. Following a 7-1 start, Creighton alternated wins and losses in a 2-2 December. They’ve also played only one “true” road game all season. Marquette beat a very good Illinois team here earlier this year, so they are more than capable of winning this game. We’re getting a really solid value on the home side here. 8* Marquette

8* Portland (10:35 ET): The Lakers stink. They have just one win in the past seven games and that came against lowly Houston. While LeBron James is doing his part, including 37 points and 13 rebounds on Wednesday, it hasn’t nearly been enough for an old team that is really short-handed. The Lakers are without several players due to health and safety, plus Anthony Davis is out with a sprained MCL. There have been 20 different starting lineups for the Lakers this season and the bench contributed just 18 points in the 104-99 loss at Memphis two nights ago. 

Things aren’t exactly going great for Portland either. The Blazers are 2-10 their last 12 games and off three consecutive double digit defeats. They are dealing with even more absences on the health and safety front and CJ McCollum has missed the L3+ weeks due to a collapsed lung. The Blazers have really struggled on the road thus far (2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS) and are just 2-11 ATS as underdogs this season. But I believe tonight is a situation where you’ll want to take the points. 

The Lakers are 9-17 ATS as favorites with 12 outright losses. They are also just 6-14 ATS at home. Much like how the Lakers are leaning on LeBron, the Blazers still have Damian Lillard, who had 32 points on Wednesday. So did Norman Powell. But it wasn’t enough against a top tier team like the Jazz. But it’s not the Jazz that Portland is facing here tonight; it’s an old Lakers team that I can see being “disinterested” playing on New Year’s Eve. Portland beat the Lakers earlier this season by 15 points. 8* Portland

8* Georgia (7:30 ET): Michigan is what I’d call a “trendy dog” heading into the second CFP semifinal, which will be played at the Orange Bowl down in Miami. I suppose that’s not a shock, given how the Wolverines and Georgia performed in their respective conference championship games. Michigan throttled Iowa 42-3 to win the Big 10 while Georgia suffered its first loss of the year, 41-24 at the hands of Alabama. But the Wolverines don’t have Bryce Young playing QB nor are they as dynamic offensively as the Crimson Tide. Look for UGA to reassert itself defensively here and remind everyone why they were the #1 ranked team in the country for most of this season. 

 Even after the debacle vs. Alabama, the Georgia defense can still say it only allows 9.5 PPG for the season. Prior to the SEC Championship, the most points allowed by the Bulldogs in a game this season was 17 (against Tennessee). Georgia almost never trailed at any point during the regular season. Not to make excuses, but heading into the Alabama game, the Bulldogs knew that they would still make the CFP even with a loss. Conversely, the Crimson Tide HAD to win the game to get in the CFP. The way the game unfolded very much reflected those realities.

Remember that Michigan was a 6.5-point home dog to Ohio State and no one was giving them much of a chance. HC Jim Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit for winning that game, but the approach used against the Buckeyes (41 carries for 297 yds rushing) will not work here. The Georgia defense allowed 10 points or less nine times and had three shutouts. They’d allowed just 83 total points in the first 11 games. After upsetting Ohio State, the Wolverines caught a huge break drawing an overrated Iowa team in the Big 10 Championship. I’ve still got Georgia ranked as the best team in the country, even after the loss to Bama. 8* Georgia

10* Under Clippers/Raptors (7:30 ET): While overall shooting may not be as woeful here as it was in the Clippers’ last game, I’m not exactly anticipating a lot of offensive firepower when LA heads “north of the border” to face Toronto on New Year’s Eve. The Clippers won 91-82 on Wednesday, mostly thanks to Boston going an unthinkable 4 of 42 from three-point range. They won’t be that “lucky” at the defensive end tonight, but playing short-handed (no George or Leonard), the Clips aren’t likely to do much scoring themselves here. 

Toronto is getting healthier as the number of players on the COVID-19 list has dropped from ten to two. But they are off two straight losses, one a complete embarrassment (144-109 to the Cavs) when the Raptors were extremely short-handed and then 114-109 to the 76ers on Tuesday. They shot 42.7% from the field in those two losses, which isn’t all that atypical. For the season, the Raptors have a 43.9 FG% and they are bottom five in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. 

Still, the Raptors’ last five games have all found a way to go Over the total. I look for that streak to end tonight. The Clippers are on a 5-1 run to the Under, so things have been going quite differently for them. LA has averaged only 99.2 PPG on 42.9% shooting its last five games and they are actually bottom five in the league in offensive efficiency. With the Clippers missing their leading scorer and Toronto having so many players working their way back into the lineup, expect a low-scoring game. 10* Under Clippers/Raptors