10* Indiana (7:35 ET): Toronto has surged into second place in the Eastern Conference on the back of an 11-game win streak. During the win streak, the Raptors are averaging 120.7 points per game on 50.4% shooting overall, including 39.7% from three-point range. That sounds really impressive, and it is, but it’s also unsustainable. Sunday against the Bulls, they shot 56% overall and made 16 of 34 three-point attempts. This is a team averaging 112.6 PPG on 45.8% shooting for the season. Eventually, they are going to have an “off-night.” 

The fact that Toronto comes into Tuesday w/ a 36-14 SU record is made all the more impressive by the fact they are 5th in most man games lost. The four teams ahead of them on that list (Warriors, Wizards, Blazers & Pistons) are a combined 69-130 SU. Right now, front line players Marc Gasol and Norman Powell are both out. Yet six different players have led the team in scoring during the 11-game win streak. By the way, a win tonight would set a new franchise record for consecutive SU wins. 

Another streak on the line here is Toronto’s 11-0 SU run at home against Indiana. But the Pacers did prevail (in overtime) at home against the Raptors back on December 23rd. That was w/o Victor Oladipo, who is now three games into his return. The last two haven’t gone well as the Pacers lost outright as favorites both times. But now they’re an underdog, a role which I believe serves them well. Unlike some of the other top teams in the East, Indiana is actually a good road team (13-12 SU record). In the end, I simply believe Toronto is “due” to drop one. 10* Indiana

8* Butler (6:30 ET): The last time these teams met (Jan 21), Villanova won rather comfortably. It was a 76-61 final (Nova -3.5), but that was in Philly obviously. Butler now gets its chance to play host as the teams come in ranked #10 and #19 respectively. The Bulldogs have lost only two home games all year, but come into this rematch having dropped four of six overall after a 15-1 SU start. Villanova is also off a loss, 76-61 (oh, the irony!) to Creighton at home. They were 6.5-pt favorites as their seven-game win streak came to an end.

Butler also lost as a 6.5-point favorite their last time out. It was not a good effort against Providence, which was a home game. It was also the third straight game w/o PG Aaron Thompson. For the first time, it looked like the Bulldogs really missed him. They missed 14 of 15 three-point attempts and turned it over 15 times. I can’t see them losing for a second straight time at home, however. They give up just 57.6 points per game here. Visiting teams are making just 27.6% of three-point attempts. Villanova, for all its success, has made only 40.8% of its FG attempts in conference play. 

Butler is just 1-5 SU/ATS its last six meetings with Villanova including four straight losses. So you know they’ll come out motivated. When I look at Villanova being ranked #10, I can’t help but think that’s too high. I have them on the fringes of the Top 20 and KenPom agrees, having them at #23. Four of their seven wins during the recently ended streak were by six points or less. 8* Butler

10* Denver (9:05 ET): You may have recently read (see Sunday analysis) how I’m not a huge buyer on the Nuggets vis a vis the other top teams in the West. But tonight is a much better situation for them than it was Sunday in Detroit when they lost outright in overtime, 128-123. This is a home game and the Nuggets will be hosting a Portland team that’s likely on fumes following three consecutive outright upsets of its own. The Blazers have won four in a row overall, also going 4-0 ATS. But they are 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Denver so far this season.

While I did cash the Pistons on Super Bowl Sunday, it bears mentioning that the Nuggets had a big lead early - by as many as 21 points. Prior to blowing that lead and losing, Denver had beaten both Utah (hot team) and won at Milwaukee (league’s best team) as a 13-point underdog. They did so while being relatively short-handed. One thing we can count on with the Nuggets now that they are back home is defense - they are giving up just 103.7 PPG at home this season. They allow just 99.7 PPG in division contests. 

Led by a jaw-dropping offensive display from PG Damian Lillard, the Blazers have become viable again for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Lillard is averaging 48.8 points and 10.2 assists over the last six games. Portland has won all of those but one, however only one came on the road. The Blazers are only 10-16 SU on the road for this season with the team’s overall scoring declining by about seven points from when they play at home. As an underdog, they get outscored by 6.3 PPG. 10* Denver

7* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): Even when they were languishing as low as fifth place in the Atlantic Division, my outlook the Lightning remained pretty optimistic due to a goal differential that was among the league’s best. Sure enough, they’ve quickly risen up the standings and are now second in the division, behind only Boston. Their YTD goal differential of +43 is the league’s best right now and LY’s Presidents Trophy winners have gone 15-2-1 SU the L18 games overall. 

Since returning from the All-Star Break, the Lightning have gone 3-0-1, the lone loss in OT @ Dallas. All four games were on the road, the latest resulting in a 3-0 shutout of San Jose. Tonight marks the 1st game in TB since January 14th and only the third game here since Jan 9th. This fact is a big deal as the Lightning are a dominant home team, averaging 4.1 goals per game here and outscoring opponents by 1.2 gpg. Both figures are league bests. I’m a little stunned that we are able to grab them at this kind of price. 

Vegas is also off a 3-0 win, theirs coming at Nashville on Sunday. That put the Golden Knights into third place in the relatively wide-open Pacific Division. But a big key here is that this will be their SEVENTH consecutive road game and third since the Break. The Knights don’t score enough on the road (2.9 gpg) so it’s difficult for me to envision them keeping pace with the Lightning, who are 8-0 vs. the Pacific Division this year and 7-0-1 SU L8 home games. 7* Tampa Bay

10* Kansas State (9:00 ET): With easy wins (both by double digits) over Iowa State and TCU, #1 Baylor figures to hold the top spot in the new poll that comes out later today. The Bears assumed that spot two weeks ago in the AP and last week in the Coaches, moving past Gonzaga. I think I speak for a lot of people though when I say the Bears are probably NOT the best team in America. There’s still a handful of teams I’d favor over them in a neutral setting (one in their own conference - Kansas) Tonight, they put their 18-game win streak (nation’s longest) on the line at the “Octagon of Doom” in Manhattan, KS.

Kansas State is not having a particularly good season as they are just 9-12 SU overall. But the Wildcats have covered three straight, including at West Virginia on Saturday. They also defeated the Mountaineers here in Manhattan. All but one of KSU’s victories this season have been at home where they’re 8-3 SU overall and holding teams to only 59.5 PPG. They were a seven-point home dog when they beat WVU here, 84-68. 

Look for Wildcats’ leading scorer Xavier Sneed (14.4 PPG) to have a big, bounce-back game tonight. He’s struggled some recently, including tallying only 11 pts in the loss to WVU over the weekend. That game saw the team shoot just 3 of 17 from three-point range. At home, Sneed and the Wildcats figure to shoot much better. Baylor has clearly been impressive all season long, but in what figures to be a low-scoring, defensive-minded game, I want the points. Baylor has not shot better than 45% in any game in 2020. 10* Kansas State

9* Dallas (7:05 ET): More and more, I’m liking the Stars’ chances of finishing at least third in the Central Division, which would of course guarantee them a spot in the playoffs. Right now, they’re tied with Colorado for second, six points back of defending Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis. The key with the Stars is that they have given up the fewest number of goals in the league (129). Every other team in the Western Conference has allowed at least 19 more goals. I look for another strong effort in goal tonight.

The Rangers are the opposition tonight and they are coming off a home and home sweep of Detroit to start their second half. Really, the Rangers couldn’t have asked for a more favorable way to come out of the All-Star Break then with two games against the worst team in hockey. Saturday in the Motor City, they shut the Red Wings out 1-0. It was just the third shutout win of the year for NY and the bad news is they are 0-2 SU off the prior two. Despite the two straight wins, the Rangers remain well off the playoff pace in the Eastern Conference. 

Dallas went to New Jersey on Saturday and won 3-2. It was the third consecutive game scoring exactly three goals, a good sign given what a good job they do at preventing the opposing team from scoring. The Stars have also beaten Tampa Bay since coming back from the All-Star Break. All nine goals scored by the team since the Break have come at even strength as they’ve gone 0 for 14 on the power play. Considering the Rangers are just 22nd in penalty killing, don’t be surprised if the Stars break out of their recent PP slump and score once or twice w/ the man advantage here. 9* Dallas

10* Washington (7:05 ET): It’s not all that often you see the Wizards favored and the fact that they would be laying points to Golden State is something that could not have been believed at the start of the season. But we know how things have gone for the Warriors this year with both “Splash Brothers” (Curry & Thompson) out, leaving the team as a shell of its former championship self. Despite a convincing win the other night in Cleveland, the Dubs still have the worst overall record in the league at 11-39 SU.

The Wizards have been a disaster defensively this season, ranking last in the league in efficiency and points allowed. Fortunately for them though, Golden State has been pretty bad defensively as well. Over the last six games, the fewest points allowed by the Warriors was 112 and that came in the win Saturday at Cleveland. Meanwhile, Washington has actually held its last two opponents to 107 pts and as a result won both games. It should be noted the Wizards do allow far less PPG here at home than on the road.

I like the matchup for Washington for several reasons. One is that Golden State is playing for a fourth straight time on the road and all of those games have been out East. It was a rare good game for Warriors on Saturday, but that also came at the expense of the worst team in the league. Before that, they’d lost 15 of 16 overall and had gone nearly two months w/o a road win. This will be the Wizards’ third straight game at home and leading scorer Bradley Beal has been motivated by being “snubbed” as an All-Star. 10* Washington

10* Under 49ers/Chiefs (6:30 ET): Before the start of the season, San Francisco was my choice to be the most improved team in the league. Sure enough, they’ve gone from 4-12 to 15-3 SU and are in the Super Bowl for a seventh time in franchise history. The last time, under Jim Harbaugh and with Colin Kaepernick at QB, is the only one they’ve lost. That was against Baltimore, seven years ago, and they were never “in the money” as 4-point favorites (lost 34-31). While even I ended up being surprised over just how much the 49ers improved, make no mistake about it, this was the best team in the NFC all year long.

Kansas City did not finish with the best record in the AFC (Baltimore did), but here they are in their first Super Bowl in 50 years. It’s the first Super Bowl for HC Andy Reid since losing to the Patriots when he was with the Eagles. This team is probably better than any Eagles team he coached. The Chiefs are not only on an 8-game SU winning streak coming into the biggest game of the year, they have gone 8-0 ATS in those games as well. One of the biggest reasons for that is an improved defense. While we really haven’t seen that in either of the two playoff games, KC has allowed an average of just 13.7 PPG during the eight-game win streak.

Believe it or not, this is likely to close as one of the highest O/U lines for any Chiefs game this season. Early in the season, there were two games with 55-point totals. This will certainly close as the highest O/U line for any Niners game this year. SF games average 49.1 PPG. KC games average 50.0 on the dot. We know the 49ers can play defense as they rank #2 in yards allowed. Both of these defenses are top 10 in scoring. The Under is 7-2-1 in the 10 Super Bowls w/ totals of 50+ pts, including last year’s 13-3 game. Based on the two Conference Championship Games, the public will be on the Over in this game. I’ll take the Under. 10* Under 49ers/Chiefs

10* Kansas City (6:30 ET): So, after much consternation, the Chiefs are my pick to cover the spread in Super Bowl LIV. While I agree with the oddsmakers’ assertion that these teams do rate pretty evenly, what this play ultimately comes down to is taking the more proven commodity. Admittedly, San Francisco was my pick to be the most improved team in the league this year and went from 4-12 to 15-3 SU. But Kansas City has won 10+ games each of the L5 seasons, not to mention has won/covered eight in a row coming into Sunday. They’ll have the best player on the field (Patrick Mahomes) and I believe will win their 1st SB in 50 years. 

Despite falling behind Houston 24-0 in the Divisional Round and Tennessee 17-7 in the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs were able to storm back and win both games by double digits. Mahomes and the offense have been absurdly efficient in the playoff, scoring a touchdown on 60% of all drives, including seven straight vs. the Texans. It won’t be that easy against the 49ers, who rank 2nd in total defense. But slowing this Chiefs’ offense down is easier said than done. In the end, I trust Mahomes to put up more points than Jimmy Garoppolo.

Don’t discount what the Chiefs’ defense has been doing either. During their 8-0 SU/ATS run, they’ve held the opposition to an average of just 13.7 PPG. In the regular season, they (like the 49ers) were a top 10 scoring defense. Interestingly enough, in the last 18 Super Bowls, the team with the fewer wins has gone 15-2-1 ATS. That’s KC here. The Chiefs have covered the spread by an average of 7 pts during the 8-0 ATS run and Andy Reid has always been outstanding off a bye, going 21-8 ATS in his career, including 2-0 this season. 10* Kansas City

10* Over Blue Jackets/Canadiens (2:05 ET): Columbus had been surging as they went into the All-Star Break on a six-game win streak that included THREE shutouts. But in their first game since the Break, they lost 2-1 to Buffalo yesterday. The game went to overtime and obviously didn’t feature much offense as the two teams combined for just 47 shots. With all the shutouts, Columbus games have generally been low-scoring of late as yesterday marked their seventh Under in the last eight games. 

Montreal has also been going Under with regularity of late. Their 4-0 shutout of Florida on Saturday made it a 7-1-1 Under run as they’ve allowed 1 or 0 goals five different times during that stretch. Yesterday’s blanking of the Panthers was quite impressive considering Florida came in on a six-game win streak where they’d tallied 4+ goals in every win. But it was also the third time in the last five games in which the Habs scored 4 or more times. They are averaging 3.6 goals per game during that stretch. 

Something worth monitoring here is the goalie situation seeing as this is the second game of a back to back for both times. Columbus has indicated they are again going with Elvis Merzlikins, but note he has a losing record in road starts as his save percentage dips to .907. For Montreal, Carey Price has given up seven goals in the two previous meetings with the Blue Jackets this season. The Canadiens’ PK was able to go 6 for 6 yday, which seems a little fortunate. 10* Over Blue Jackets/Canadiens

10* Carolina (2:05 ET): For the benefit of those who may not be paying attention, I’ll let you in on the fact that the NHL’s Eastern Conference is much stronger (and deeper) than the Western Conference this season. Out West, there are only seven clubs sporting positive goal differentials. In the East, there are 12, including seven alone from the Metropolitan Division where Carolina hails and is currently in sixth place. The Hurricanes have a +26 goal differential YTD, which is sixth best in the entire league, yet would NOT be a playoff team as of the current standings.

Vancouver comes into Sunday leading the Pacific Division with 64 points. That’s only three more points than Carolina has. The Canucks have a +17 goal differential and are on a five-game win streak after beating the Islanders yday 4-3. That game went into OT, making this a tougher than usual back to back plus it’s an afternoon game. The Canucks were outshot by the Isles 37-24 (17-5 in third period), so they should consider themselves fortunate to have won. 

Carolina is not only more rested than Vancouver here, but likely more motivated based on where they are in the standings. ‘Canes HC Rod Brind’Amour ripped the effort of his team in a 4-3 home loss to Vegas on Friday, the only game that they have played since the All-Star Break. The Canucks will be playing their 4th game since the Break today. Carolina has revenge for a 1-0 loss in OT at Vancouver back in December. But they are 17-9-1 SU at home, averaging 3.4 goals per game (allowing only 2.5). The Canucks are only 13-13-1 SU on the road and giving up 3.4 gpg. 10* Carolina

10* Detroit (12:35 ET): The Pistons did make the playoffs LY as an 8-seed. But with the top of the Eastern Conference having collectively improved this year, the Pistons have seemingly been “left in the dust” and are further away from contending than they’ve been in awhile. It hasn’t helped that they’ve regressed. Part of the story has been injuries. January ended with Detroit going 0-5 SU and ATS its last five games. I just played against them Friday night. But I’ll be singing a much “different tune” here on Sunday. 

I’ve said it before - Denver has been a big overachiever the last two seasons. They finished second in the Western Conference a season ago despite several teams behind them having better YTD point differentials. The same thing is happening this year as they are again 2nd in the West even though FIVE teams behind them have better point differentials. That all being said, the Nuggets are off a somewhat shocking win on Friday night as they went to Milwaukee and beat the Bucks 127-115 as a 13-point underdog. They also won at home vs. Utah Thursday night.

What makes those two wins even more shocking is that the Nuggets were short-handed for both. Starting backcourt Murray and Harris missed both games as did forward Paul Milsap and backup Mason Plumlee. HC Michael Malone has recently talked about resting players due to increased workloads, particularly Nikola Jokic. Detroit has its own injury issues, but Denver is 3-8 ATS after scoring 115+ points their previous game and only +1.8 PPG on the road. Look for the Pistons to pull the upset. They’re sick of losing. 10* Detroit

8* BYU (10:00 ET): As I went over on Thursday, the West Coast Conference has basically become “Gonzaga & everyone else competing for second place.” This has been the case going back many seasons. Since their arrival into the WCC mix back in 2011, BYU has finished either second or third in the conference every season. Of course, the other perennial challenger to Gonzaga is St. Mary’s. Sure enough, St. Mary’s & BYU come into tonight in 2nd and 3rd place respectively in the WCC. But I’ve got a strong preference here.

While unranked, most power rating systems (including my own!) consider BYU to be a Top 25 team (in the country) this year. KenPom has them #18 while BPI (ESPN) has them #27. All three of the Cougars’ WCC losses have come on the road, two of them coming by three points or less and the other at Gonzaga. They have revenge here having fallen at St. Mary’s 87-84 back on January 9th. Sure enough, I cashed St. Mary’s (-2.5) in that game, which went to overtime. But things should turn out much differently here in Provo where BYU is 10-1 SU and outscoring teams by 22.3 PPG. 

Three of BYU’s losses this year came against Gonzaga, San Diego State and Kansas. All three of those teams are currently projected to be #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. All three losses came when BYU’s best player, Yoeli Childs, was suspended. They were also without Childs when they lost to St. Mary’s, one of four losses by either one point or in overtime for the Cougars. The bottom line is that this team is better than its WL record as we saw in a 27-point win (107-80 over Pepperdine) on Thursday as Childs led the way with 21 pts. This time St. Mary’s has to contend with him and I think the number here speaks volumes. 8* BYU

10* Under Sixers/Celtics (8:35 ET): This is the primetime game on ABC as we get two of the Eastern Conference’s best teams squaring off. Boston is in a third place tie with Miami right now, but interestingly enough only two teams in the entire league (Bucks, Lakers) can claim to having a better YTD point differential than the Celtics. Getting this game at home is pretty huge for them (Boston) as Philly is only 9-16 SU on the road, compared to 22-2 SU at home. The 76ers are currently 6th in the East, two games back of the Celtics.

Boston has won five of its last six games (also 5-1 ATS) including two straight. In the five wins, they’ve allowed no more than 107 points. The one loss saw them concede 123 to the Pelicans, but that was on the road and the game still stayed Under. That’s part of a 5-game Under streak the Celtics carry into tonight. Boston is top five in the league in defensive efficiency and I expect them to hold the Sixers offense, which is averaging just 106.1 PPG on the road, in check tonight. 

But the Celtics may have a problem on the offensive end here as Kemba Walker is questionable with a knee injury. That same knee caused him to miss a game in January and Walker scored only 13 points (5 of 13 shooting) in Thursday’s win over Golden State. Enes Kanter may also be out because of a hip injury. The 76ers have really had the Celtics’ number as they look to make it a 4-0 season sweep tonight. In the previous three matchups, they’ve held Boston to an average of just 100 PPG. The Sixers are 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, but only 19th in offensive efficiency. 10* Under Sixers/Celtics

10* Cincinnati (6:00 ET): With Memphis predictably underachieving, a “vacuum” was created in the American Conference and both of these teams have moved their way to the top. Houston leads with a 7-1 SU conference record, but Cincy is just a game back as they’ve won three in a row heading into this Saturday showdown. That means a win here would pull the Bearcats even with the Cougars and possibly into a first place tie depending on what Tulsa (6-1) does today vs. Wichita State. The stakes are high here. 

Cincy has been rolling here at home so they’ve got to be loving the fact they get to host tonight. The Bearcats have had four conference home games so far. They’ve won all of them by at least 16 points. That includes a 31-point drubbing of Tulsa back on January 8th. Tuesday, they won by 22 against SMU, holding the Mustangs to just 43 points on 25.9% shooting. Looking at the Bearcats’ 13-7 SU record, it could be a lot better had they won all five games that either went to OT or were decided by 1 pt (3-2 SU in those games). 

The Bearcats being favored here may surprise some considering Houston is ranked (#21) and generally considered to be the American’s top team. The Cougars have won 15 of their last 17 games including five straight. Despite Houston holding its opponents to 56.6 PPG on 35,4% shooting during the win streak, Cincy actually comes in with the better defensive efficiency rating for the year as it is holding teams to 35.1% shooting at home. The Bearcats can match Houston on the boards, which is key, and they’ve won 40 of the L44 home games. 10* Cincinnati

6* Puck Line Winnipeg (8:05 ET): Please note this is a puck line play only where I am backing the Jets at +1.5. Heading into the All-Star Break, the Jets were not playing well. They’d lost six of seven while being outscored 26-15. However, three of the six losses were by only one goal. With all the time off to recoup, I am looking for an inspired effort out of Winnipeg tonight as Boston comes calling. As impressive as the Bruins are at home (only two regulation losses!), they are just 12-8-3 SU on the road. 

This is also Boston’s first game since the All-Star Break. The Atlantic Division leaders have 70 points and have been in first place virtually the entire season. That said, they have lost three of the last five games and all three of those losses were on the road. The Bruins are just .500 in January and while one of their five wins came at the Jets expense, that was a) at home and b) by a one-goal margin. Again, I’ll gladly take another one goal game here. 

In fact, the last three times these teams have met, every game has been decided by one goal. Winnipeg won both last year. This is the Jets’ longest losing streak of the season, so they should obviously be highly motivated coming out of the Break. 6* Puck Line Winnipeg (+1.5)

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Raptors have surged into second place in the Eastern Conference, thanks to a nine-game win streak. They look to make it 10 in a row tonight in Detroit as they visit the Pistons. Last night, Toronto escaped Cleveland with a 115-109 win. That one was closer than expected as the underdog Cavaliers rallied late in the fourth quarter. Still, all but one win during this streak has been by five points and thus I’m going to lay the number tonight against a struggling Pistons side.

Detroit is 0-4 SU/ATS its last four games, including a loss to Cleveland. Three of the four losses have been here at home, though the last one - 125-115 to Brooklyn - was on the road. The Pistons defense has been atrocious during the four-game losing streak, giving up 125, 121, 115 and 125 points. All but one opponent shot better than 50%. There’s a big gap in defensive efficiency between these two teams as Toronto ranks 2nd in the league in that department while Detroit is 21st. 

The fact the Pistons shot 50% themselves on the road Wednesday and still lost by double digits is not a good sign. They are just 2-10 SU/2-9-1 ATS this season after scoring 115+ points in their last game. Toronto has already beaten Detroit twice this season, by 12 at home and by 13 on the road. A third double digit win seems likely considering the current state of the Pistons, who are without three of their best players (including Blake Griffin). Toronto is as healthy as its been all year. Detroit is only 9-16 SU at home. 10* Toronto

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): The MAC has belonged to Buffalo the last couple years as former HC Nate Oats led the program to four NCAA Tournament appearances over the last five seasons, including a pair of wins. Oats has since moved on (to Alabama), but the Bulls showed they are still a team to be reckoned with as they beat Akron (MAC’s best team this year) on the road Tuesday. The 77-74 outright win (as 7.5-pt dogs) improved UB to 5-1 SU its L6 games, the lone loss coming by four points (here at home) to Kent St last Friday. 

I look for the Bulls to go into the weekend a lot happier this time around. Tonight, they’ll host Bowling Green, a team that has won seven in a row. Beating such an opponent may sound like a challenge, but note that the Falcons have been incredibly lucky during this win streak of theirs, prevailing by three points or less four times and by six points or less six times. I’m not saying this is going to be an easy win for Buffalo, but BG is definitely “due” to drop a game and I’m all too willing to lay the small number as a result. 

Bowling Green may have the MAC’s best record (7-1 SU), but Akron and Kent State are probably the two best teams (Akron definitely #1) and that’s who Buffalo has had to face over the past week. Meanwhile, Bowling Green has generally avoided the league’s top teams, save for a 67-61 win over Ball State earlier this week. But that came at home. Buffalo remains one of the country’s highest scoring teams and averages 81.5 PPG when they are at home. While BG may lead the conference, they are just 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. 10* Buffalo

10* Santa Clara (10:30 ET): Santa Clara will try and do here what no WCC team has been able to do since the Tourney Final last year. That’s beat Gonzaga. The #2 ranked Zags have not lost a regular season WCC game since Jan 18, 2018. Both that and LY’s WCC Tourney Final loss were to St. Mary’s. The last time a WCC team other than St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga was Feb 25th, 2017 (BYU). Overall, the Zags have won 57 of their 59 conference games the L3+ seasons, including a 7-0 mark here in 2019-20. So when it comes to pulling an upset, history is definitely NOT on Santa Clara’s side here. 

Fortunately though, there is a pointspread. Now oddsmakers haven’t been much assistance for Santa Clara when facing Gonzaga recently. Two weeks ago in Spokane, they lost by 50 (104-54!) to the Zags. That was their 20th straight loss in the rivalry and the fourth time in the last five meetings Gonzaga won by at least 43 points. After failing to cover the first two WCC games this year, the Zags have now covered five straight coming into tonight. 

But despite the horrible series history, I believe Santa Clara is worth taking plus the points here. It’s a huge difference getting the Zags at home. Santa Clara is 15-1 SU at home this season (only loss was in OT), outscoring teams by 17.4 PPG. The Broncos are coming off a win over San Diego (on the road) and you know revenge has to be on the mind after taking a 50-point drubbing. Gonzaga has a bigger road game (at San Francisco) on deck Saturday, so this one probably won’t have their full attention. 10* Santa Clara

10* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres wasted what I thought was a golden opportunity to pick up two points Tuesday. In their first game after the All-Star Break, they lost 5-2 (at home) to an Ottawa team that was coming off a disheartening loss in a shootout the night prior. Despite them wasting that opportunity, I look for the Sabres to bounce back tonight. Again they are at home and facing a division foe beneath them in the standings. This time it’s Montreal, who they beat here on home ice back in October.

Technically, these teams are tied with 51 points. But Buffalo has more one more non-shootout victory, despite having played one fewer game. It has not been a good last month or so for the Canadiens, who have dropped 10 of their last 14 games including one on Monday at home vs. Washington. The Habs were beaten 4-2 in their first game after the Break and gave up 40 shots on goal. It should be pointed out they have just two wins in regulation since X-Mas and have suffered TWO eight-game losing streaks since mid-November. 

As I discussed when they hosted Ottawa, Buffalo is capable of scoring plenty of goals. They average 3.4 goals per game at home, which is top 10 in the league. Top goalie Linus Ullmark is out after injuring his leg vs. Ottawa, but you can look past that as the Sabres have won four of five against the Habs, regardless of who is in goal. Montreal has plenty of issues between the pipes themselves and is 7-15 SU this season after giving up 4+ goals the previous game. 10* Buffalo 

10* Over Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): We’ve got two bad teams here, each desperate for a win. Charlotte did win its last game (Tuesday vs. NY), but had lost eight in a row prior to that come from behind effort. Washington, meanwhile, has given up an ungodly 303 total points its last two games combined and neither of those went to overtime! Something has to give here as the Hornets’ last four games have all stayed Under while the Wizards last four games have all gone Over. I think Washington’s trend is the more likely to continue.

It is becoming difficult to explain just how awful the Wizards are defensively. Last in the league in efficiency and points allowed (121.3 per game), they have allowed 134 or more points in four of their last six contests. What makes Tuesday’s 151-131 loss in Milwaukee all the more humiliating is that the Bucks played without Giannis Antetokounmpo, yet still managed to shoot 56.6% from the field including 19 of 36 on three-point attempts. The Wizards allowed 88 points in the first half alone!

Charlotte is the league’s lowest scoring team (103.1 PPG), but it would be foolish to think they are incapable of “going off” against the defensively inept Wizards. They’ve averaged 116 points in two prior meetings with them this season. The lone game here in D.C. was a 125-118 final (in favor of the Wizards) as both teams shot better than 50% and combined to make 28 three-pointers. This is about as low a total as you’re going to get on a Washington game these days, so play accordingly. 10* Over Hornets/Wizards

6* Puck Line Calgary (10:05 ET): Please note that this a Puck Line play only where I am backing the Flames +1.5. This renewal of the “Battle of Alberta” comes at a time where both Calgary and Edmonton are in playoff position. Despite losing last night, the Flames picked up a point (shootout) and thus moved into second place in the Pacific by their lonesome, ahead of the Oilers and two other teams. Calgary is already 2-0 vs. their provincial rival this season and I see them doing no worse than a 1-goal loss here. 

The Oilers have not played since the All-Star Break. They headed into the Break having won five of six, scoring plenty of goals in the process. But the lone defeat suffered during that stretch came in Calgary w/ a power play goal being the difference in a 4-3 final. I realize the situation seems favorable towards Edmonton here as they are rested (while Calgary played last night) and have revenge. But all that time off may have the Oilers rusty tonight and thus prone to a slow start.

Last night was Calgary’s 1st loss in a SO this season (were previously 5-0). Ironically, the Blues had been winless in shootouts. The Flames lost despite three PP goals, which is tough when you’re at home. But in the end, the Oilers give up 3.6 goals per game at home, which is too many to believe they can win this game by multiple goals. It’s the most goals per game given up by any team in the league at home. 6* Puck Line Calgary (+1.5)

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): The Spurs have lost three straight games, all by four points or less. The most recent came in a game where I had the Over, a 110-109 loss in Chicago that was sealed with a pair of last second Zach LaVine free throws. This three-game losing streak has the Spurs stuck in 9th place in the Western Conference, 2.5 games back of Memphis (who won last night). Of course, only the top eight teams make the playoffs, something SA has done for each of the L20+ seasons.

Utah has surged into the top three in the West with a 32-14 SU record. I expected the Jazz to finish among the top four this year and they have been almost unbeatable since X-Mas, going 14-2 straight up, not to mention 13-3 ATS. That all being said, the Jazz did lose on Monday, 126-117 to Houston and the Rockets played w/o both Harden & Westbrook. It was Utah’s first home loss since December 10th. They allowed Eric Gordon to go off for 50 points in a result few, if any, saw coming. While 18-4 SU at home, the Jazz are only 14-10 SU on the road.

Over the next four days, Utah will play not only here, but also at Denver and Portland. Look for them to “give some back” over the course of this trip. San Antonio has not been kind through the years with the Jazz owning an 8-41 SU record and 14-32-3 ATS record here in the L4 trips. Off three straight losses, the Spurs are the more “desperate” team tonight and with the annual “Rodeo Road Trip” looming, that only amplifies the desperation. When not favored at home, the Spurs have a winning ATS record. 10* San Antonio

10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): This is an important game in the Big 12, especially on the Texas Tech side. The Red Raiders come in on a two-game losing streak, their second of the new year, plus they have revenge for a loss in Morgantown 18 days ago. The last two losses both came w/ TT favored, the more recent was vs. Kentucky (were -3) and the game went to overtime. I think it’s certainly notable that a now-unranked Red Raiders team remains favored over the #12 team in the country (WVU). That should tell you something right there.

West Virginia is definitely a surprise this year as they’ve moved up to #12 in the rankings. They are back to playing defense in Morgantown as this Mountaineers team currently ranks #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, a key metric for March. Bob Huggins’ team is 7-1 ATS its last eight games and coming off a 74-51 beatdown of Missouri in Morgantown. However, all three losses this year came in “true” road games where they are only 3-3 SU. Something to keep in mind is that in the preseason WVU was pegged to finish fifth in the 10-team Big XII. 

Three-point shooting seemed to be the difference in the UK-Texas Tech matchup. While Kentucky shot 46.7% from behind the arch, TT finished at only 15.8%. Similar poor shooting was the story the Red Raiders in the loss to WVU earlier this month as they were held to 28% overall in Morgantown. I expect them to shoot better in this game, despite WVU’s tremendous defense. Texas Tech is no slouch defensively either, ranking 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and holding opponents to 58.5 PPG here in Lubbock. 10* Texas Tech

10* Over Pelicans/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): After losing the first two games with Zion Williamson on the court, New Orleans finally broke through with a win on Sunday, beating the Celtics 123-108 in a game they (meaning the Pelicans) were actually favored to win. After that performance, the Pelicans have to like their chances going up against a Cleveland side that is one of the league’s worst and will be playing the second night of a back to back. One thing for certain is that the potential for a LOT of scoring is present.

The Cavaliers did pick up a rare victory last night, winning 115-100 in Detroit. They closed as 6.5-point underdogs and Kevin Love scored all 20 of his points in the first half. It was Cleveland’s first win in over two weeks and snapped a seven-game losing streak. The game also went Over, the third straight Cavs’ game to do so. The Over is now 11-3 for this team in the month of January, which really isn’t all that surprising considering they have posted the league’s second worst defensive efficiency rating. Only Washington is worse.

New Orleans has also been going Over quite a bit this month with a 10-3 Over mark. This is a team that can score and Williamson only makes them stronger at that end of the floor. But the Pelicans’ problem remains defense as they actually give up more points per game (117.4) than Cleveland. They are 28th overall in PPG allowed (only Atlanta & Washington worse). With that distinction + Cleveland’s own defensive inefficiencies, look for a ton of scoring tonight. New Orleans is 7-1 Over off a DD win. 10* Over Pelicans/Cavaliers

6* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres have a lot of work to do if they are to make the postseason for the first time in nine years. They currently are 10 points back from where they need to be, that being the Wild Card or third place in the Atlantic. If they are to make a move, the time is probably now as tonight starts a five-game run on home ice. This looks like an easy two points to me as they face division also-ran Ottawa, who just played last night and lost in a shootout.

The Senators fell 4-3 at home to New Jersey Monday, their first game after the All-Star Break. Despite the fact they allowed 53 shots on goal, it’s a game the Sens “should have” won. I say this because they scored not one, but TWO short-handed goals in the third period. They had the lead until 3:21 was left in regulation. None of Ottawa’s goals last night came at even strength (other was on power play). The road has been unkind to this club as they are 5-17-2 SU and being outscored by 1.6 goals per game. That’s the 2nd worst goal differential in the league in road games (Detroit). 

Buffalo can definitely score here at home where they are averaging 3.5 goals per game w/ a solid shooting percentage of 11.8. They are top 10 in the league in goals per game scored at home. While they did lose their final game before the Break (2-1 at Nashville), the Sabres had won three in a row prior to that, scoring 13 goals in the process. They’ve also got revenge here for a 3-1 loss in Ottawa right before X-Mas where they finished with a 44-29 edge in shots. The Sabres are definitely the better team here, they’re in a better situation and Ottawa has won just once in its past 10 games. 6* Buffalo

8* St. John’s (6:30 ET): Coming in at #8 in the latest AP Poll (#10 in Coaches), Villanova feels a bit “overrated,” even with a 16-3 SU record. The Wildcats are certainly a Top 20 team, but that’s about it from where I sit. While they’ve won six in a row and are 12-1 SU since December 1st, ‘Nova has been extremely fortunate to go 6-0 in games decided by six points or less during that time. It just feels like Jay Wright’s squad is “due” to drop one and Tuesday’s road game at St. John’s is the place I’ll fade them. 

Most of the winning Villanova has been doing of late has been in Philly. Four of the last five wins have come at home, the exception being Saturday’s 64-60 triumph at Providence. I feel the Wildcats were pretty lucky to win there as they made only ONE field goal over the final 6:45 of game time and were outrebounded badly (-14 in offensive rebounds). Providence also had a bad shooting night, making only 31.7% of their shots including 3 of 23 from three-point range. It’s tough to win, on the road no less, when you attempt 15 fewer shots than your opponent. But somehow Villanova did it. 

St. John’s is a “tougher out” than Providence even though the Red Storm have only two wins in their previous eight games. Both wins were against DePaul, the second one coming on Saturday, 79-66 as 4.5-pt road underdogs. That improves the Red Storm’s record when getting points to 6-3 ATS this season. They are also 8-3 ATS at home where they average 79.5 PPG. On the defensive end, St. John’s has a higher defensive efficiency rating than Villanova. The Red Storm have covered all four meetings w/ Nova the past two seasons (all decided by 7 pts or less). For the favorite, Jermaine Samuels is listed as “day to day” with a foot injury sustained in the Providence game. 8* St. John’s

9* San Jose (10:35 ET): The Sharks come out of the All-Star Break with the worst goal differential in the Western Conference and on a three-game losing streak. But this appears to be one of the better spots to take them as they are at home facing another “also-ran” from the division. That would be Anaheim, whose resume is pretty comparable despite B2B road wins before the Break. Not since starting the season 3-0 have the Ducks won three straight games. They have just ONE win in regulation since December 3rd! 

This being a home game is a huge boon for San Jose, who has not gotten to play many games the “The Tank” recently. The entirety of the Sharks’ current three-game skid came on the road as they were outscored 14-4 by Arizona, Vancouver and Colorado, all of whom are top tier Western Conference teams. Anaheim is not, nor are the Ducks a good road team. Yes, they did win B2B road games before the Break. But they have lost 17 of 25 on the road this season while averaging only 2.28 goals per game! 

That scoring average is 4th worst in the league on the road. The Sharks are one of the three teams below them, so again, good for them that this game takes place in San Jose. The Sharks have played only 3 of their last 11 games at home and won them all, allowing just three total goals in the process. Anaheim has one of the league’s worst scoring differentials on the road (-1.12 gpg). A big difference for these teams is their respective records vs. fellow sub-.500 foes. San Jose is 12-6 SU while Anaheim is 6-12. 9* San Jose

10* Eastern Washington (9:05 ET): The homecourt advantage should be the decisive factor in this game as Eastern Washington has lost only once here in Cheney and that was to Big Sky leader Montana. The Eagles are 5-1 SU in all other conference games and come into Monday on a three-game win streak after handling Southern Utah here at home Saturday night. They needed overtime to get the job done there and did not cover the 3.5-point spread (won 81-78). But all we need tonight is a SU win and that seems like the logical result here.

Northern Colorado is also 5-2 SU in Big Sky play. These teams are tied for second, one game back of Montana. Northern Colorado beat Montana, but did so at home. What the Bears must contend with here is an Eastern Washington team that is third in the entire country in scoring, trailing only Gonzaga and Dayton. At home, the Eagles are averaging 93.7 PPG, which is the highest scoring average in the country in home games. It’s been more than six years since Northern Colorado won a game here.

Northern Colorado is 2-0 SU in Big Sky road games this season, but those wins came against the two weakest teams in the conference, Weber State and Idaho. The latter was Saturday, by a score of 74-53. This will be the third time this season that the Bears are playing consecutive games on the road. They have yet to sweep as they lost twice back in November and then split a pair last month. So history is not on their side for this one and I just don’t think the Bears have the offense necessary to “keep up” here. 10* Eastern Washington

10* Over Spurs/Bulls (8:05 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for San Antonio, who lost yesterday to Toronto 110-106 as a 3.5-point home dog. It was the Spurs’ second straight home defeat by exactly four points (also lost 110-106 to Phoenix on Friday) and now they’ve got to fly to Chicago to face a Bulls team that’s off a 118-106 victory at Cleveland Saturday night. But I’d be in no rush to bet the Bulls in this situation as they haven’t posted B2B wins in over a month. 

The Spurs have not missed the playoffs since the year before they drafted Tim Duncan. That’s quite the streak and year in, year out, you always expected this to be one of the best defensive teams in the league. That has NOT been the case this year, however. The Spurs have slipped to 23rd in defensive efficiency and are also giving up 115.8 PPG on the road. More than anything, that’s what’s turned this into a fringe playoff team. They are 26-17 Over in all games this season including 13-7 on the road. 

Chicago has had trouble stringing together two straight competent offensive efforts, but they should hopefully exploit the fact that San Antonio is letting opponents connect on almost 38% of three-point attempts on the road. It was a nice game offensively vs. the Cavaliers Saturday as the Bulls shot 51% from the field. The only problem was they also let Cleveland shoot 50% overall, which included 13 of 30 from three-point range. The Bulls are a sub-.500 team (18-30 SU) and the Spurs are 15-5 Over this season vs. such opponents. 10* Over Spurs/Bulls

10* Over Suns/Grizzlies (6:05 ET): These teams have already met three times this season and the Under has cashed every time. But there were 219, 223 and 235 total pts scored in those games. The problem was that - as the scoring increased - so did the O/U line. This is the first time we’ve seen a decrease in the O/U line from the previous meeting and I feel like we should take advantage. Memphis has become quite the high scoring team this year, averaging 115.1 PPG. But they are actually giving up more than they score (116.7 at home), so high-scoring games are nothing new for them. Take the Over in this one. 

Phoenix, who I rate as a better team that Memphis, is hopeful that the trend continues of the road team winning in this series. It’s happened in all three previous meetings this year and the last four overall. On Friday, the Suns traveled to San Antonio and picked up a key 103-99 win over the Spurs, pulling them a bit closer to the #8 spot in the Western Conference, a spot currently occupied by Memphis. Despite the low-scoring nature of the last game, the Suns are averaging 112.8 PPG while allowing 113.7 PPG.

The Over is 9-6 in Phoenix’ games this season when the total is 230+ points. They are 19-13 Over vs. teams averaging at least 106 points per game.  The Grizzlies just scored 125 in Detroit Friday night, one game after being held below 100 (by Boston) for the first time since December 4th. Not only that, the Grizz have actually scored 110+ pts in 14 of their last 15 games. In terms of pace (# of possessions per game), both of these teams are in the top 10 in the league. 10* Over Suns/Grizzlies

analysis soon

10* Drake (4:00 ET): For the first time this year, Missouri State is off B2B conference wins. The Bears beat Evansville 68-58 and Valparaiso 67-60. Ironically, the last time they lost, I was on them -- a 91-78 loss to Bradley. I just don’t see this middle of the pack MVC team winning for a third straight time as Sunday they have to visit Drake, who they are 0-4 SU/ATS against the last two seasons. Furthermore, Drake is a perfect 10-0 SU here at home, winning by an average of 15.3 PPG.

Though a somewhat pedestrian 10-8 ATS this season, Drake has been something of a pointspread juggernaut in recent years. They are 50-29-8 ATS the L88 games including 23-8 here at home. The 10-0 start this year has them at 34-5 SU L39 home games and they’ve covered six of the eight lined affairs here this season. I just find it very hard to believe that that they’re not a safe bet as such as short favorite, especially considering a 25-11 ATS run as chalk.

What’s strange about Missouri State’s recent “surge” is that it has come with G Tyrik Dixon out with a shoulder injury. Dixon is the only player on the roster averaging more than two assists per game! Drake is simply the superior side here and coming off a 23-point road win (at Evansville), it’s hard to imagine them stumbling in this situation. 10* Drake

10* Under Fordham/St. Louis (3:00 ET): Perhaps they were still reeling from their near upset of Dayton the previous Friday (lost in OT), but St. Louis lost to Davidson on Wednesday 71-59. Granted, the Billikens were 2.5 pt underdogs for that one, but they were certainly hoping for a better result after taking one of the top teams in the country to overtime. They’ll look to bounce back at home Sunday and it’s a spot where they should do well as they host A-10 lightweight Fordham. 

Fordham is coming off a win here, 59-54 over George Washington on Wednesday. But that was on the heels of a five-game losing streak. The Rams had actually dropped 9 out of their last 10, the only win coming against Coppin State. What doesn’t bode well for them today (or most others for that matter) is that they only average 59.6 points per game. St. Louis is a strong defensive outfit, giving up only 65.8 PPG. 

That said, I’m not about to lay this many points with a team that couldn’t break 60 points in its last game. Fordham actually plays great defense, giving up only 60.9 PPG. This has all the makings of an ugly slugfest where it could be the first team to 60 wins. Fordham has been held under 63 points in seven straight games, averaging only 56.2 their L5. Both teams here hold opponents under 41% shooting for the year. 10* Under Fordham/St. Louis

8* Virginia (12:00 ET): This Virginia team is nowhere near as talented as what we’ve seen coming out of Charlottesville the last several seasons. That’s evident by the fact the defending National Champs are out of the Top 25, thanks to losses in four of their last five games. But despite this, I’m still not shy about backing them here at Wake Forest. The Cavaliers are 21-6 ATS L27 road games including 8-1 when laying between 3.5 to 6 points. They are well rested (last game was Monday) and all four of those recent losses were of the single digit variety (two by four points or less). 

Even in a down year in the ACC, Wake Forest is struggling to remain relevant. The Demon Deacons come into Sunday also having lost four out of five. The most recent setback was Tuesday at Clemson, 71-68 as a 9.5-point underdog. Something interesting about this WF team is that their last nine games have gone Over. While they can score, they are also very bad at the defensive end, ranking 151st in the nation in efficiency. I have the Demon Deacons rated as the third worst team in the entire ACC right now. 

Wake’s ability to score will be severely tested by a Virginia defense that is still among the nation’s best. The Hoos are again #1 in the country, allowing just 49.7 PPG. While their ability to score can certainly be called into question, I think they’re going to have one of their most productive offensive days in awhile here. Wake Forest is a shockingly poor 15-31 ATS its last 46 ACC games and without their second leading scorer (Chaundee Brown) they are really going to struggle to score here. 8* Virginia

10* Over Lakers/Sixers (8:35 ET): For the second week in a row, the Lakers are featured on ABC in primetime. They can only hope this game goes as well as last week when they downed the Rockets 124-115 in Houston. But that was the start of a five-game road trip. Tonight is the end of the trip and they’re in Philly where the host Sixers are a very strong 20-2 SU. So I can’t advise laying points in this spot. But I do see the Lakers going Over for the eighth time in their last nine games.

Philadelphia is 6-2 Under its last eight games and has even been held below 100 pts four different times during that stretch. But the key there is all four times were on the road. At home, the Sixers are up to 111.4 PPG on the year. This is not the most efficient offensive team in the league, far from it, but they are 5-1 Over when coming off a double digit loss. They lost by 12 in Toronto Wednesday night due in large part to shooting only 38% from the floor. At home, against a tired defense, you can look for them to shoot a heck of a lot better..

The Lakers just put up 128 points Thursday night in a win over Brooklyn. They shot 50% from the floor as they won for a 12th time in the last 14 games. Seeing as LeBron and company average 114.6 PPG on the road, I don’t envision them having much difficulty scoring tonight. The Lakers actually average slightly more PPG on the road than at home. Philadelphia put up 46 three-point attempts in their last game, a clear sign that’s going to be a big part of their arsenal moving forward. 10* Over Lakers/Sixers

10* Florida State (8:00 ET): Florida State has climbed all the way up to #5 in the country as they are 16-2 SU and won nine in a row. This is the first time since 1972 that FSU, a school known for its football, has been in the top five in College Basketball. Do I think this is one of the five best teams in America? No I don’t. But in what is a shockingly “down year” for the ACC, the Seminoles are going to finish with a very good record. Them, Duke & Louisville are the only “sure things” for the NCAA Tournament. 

The Noles do have to play L’ville twice, but they’ve already beaten them on the road. They’ll have to travel to Duke on Feb 10th, but that’s the only game the rest of the way where they’re guaranteed to be underdogs. Now it was not easy last Saturday against Miami as FSU had to rally back from a late nine-point deficit to force OT (where they would go onto win 83-79). That snapped a four-game ATS win streak as the Noles were six-point chalk in Coral Gables. But with a full week off, they should be ready to go tonight at home.

Notre Dame lost to Syracuse Wednesday as a five-point favorite in South Bend. Each of the Fighting Irish’s last five games have been decided by five points or less with them winning two and losing three. Tonight, it’s time for them to be on the wrong end of a more lopsided game. Florida State is 9-0 SU this year in Tallahassee, winning by an average of 20.3 PPG. They are 58-3 SU their L61 home games including 28 ACC wins. Notre Dame, never a good road team, is overmatched here. 10* Florida State

8* Under Florida International/Charlotte (4:00 ET): Charlotte’s results when it comes to the O/U have been very “streaky.” At one point, they’d gone Under in six straight games. But now the 49ers are on a four-game Over run. Key to the latest streak is that three of the four games were on the road. This is a team that plays much better defense here at home where it allows just 57.5 PPG. Neither of the last two games were that high scoring, it was just that the totals for both were exceptionally low.

Meanwhile, there’s no denying how most FIU games go. This is a high-scoring team, one that averages 81.1 PPG (14th in the country) and even 77.4 on the road. They also give up 76.6 PPG away from home. Yet the Panthers’ OU record for the year is actually 10-7 to the Under, due in large part to consistently high totals. The last three games, all wins, have seen FIU score 93, 83 and 83 points. They didn’t even shoot that well in two of the games. 

This one will largely come down to which team can dictate the pace. FIU is 14th in adjusted tempo while Charlotte is 280th. Ultimately, I think this game is going to be played at Charlotte’s pace. Again, this is a pretty high total for them. Conversely, it’s pretty low by FIU standards. But note the Under is 4-1 in Panthers’ games where the O/U line is between 140 and 149.5. They are also 7-2 Under after scoring 80+ pts in their previous game. The Under is 7-3 in Charlotte home games. 8* Under Florida International/Charlotte

10* WI-Milwaukee (3:00 ET): Milwaukee, normally not a contender in the Horizon League, has moved up into third place by virtue of B2B wins, the most recent coming in OT against Youngstown State on Thursday. They’ll now go for what would be their second three-game win streak in the New Year (won 5 of 6 overall) Saturday at Cleveland State. The Panthers have yet to string together consecutive road victories this season, but this is also the first time they will have been favored away from home. 

Given this is WI-Milwaukee’s first time in the road chalk role this year, you can probably guess that the team they are facing here is not very good. That assertion would be correct. Cleveland State comes in at 7-14 SU on the year and has lost four straight. Three of those losses have come by double digits while the last one, here at home, saw them down 12 with just over three minutes to go. The Vikings have really fallen on some “hard times” in recent years. They rank outside the top 300 in the country according to most ratings systems, which is obviously very bad (I have them 314th, 2nd worst among Horizon League schools). 

Cleveland State just doesn’t score very much. They are averaging only 63 PPG for the season and rank in the bottom 20 nationally in offensive efficiency. Milwaukee seems to have really turned it around in 2020 and a win today would have them in great position going into next week when they’ll face the top two teams in the Horizon League. Note the Panthers had a 10-pt halftime lead (on the road) Thursday, so that game going to OT was a little unfortunate. But they still won and should have too much offense for Cleveland State. 10* WI-Milwaukee

8* Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn was one of only two remaining unbeatens in all of College Basketball when it lost last 84-63 at Alabama last Wednesday. More “bloom” came off the rose when three days later the Tigers were blown out in Gainesville, losing 69-47 to Florida. That’s a heck of a way for an unbeaten run to end, but Bruce Pearl’s team subsequently bounced back with an 80-67 win over South Carolina earlier in the week. It’s important to note Auburn is still undefeated at home and that’s where they’ll be for today’s game vs. Iowa State, part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge. 

Iowa State enters this game at just .500 overall (9-9 SU). They squared away their record with a 89-82 win in Ames over Oklahoma State on Tuesday. But the bad news for the Cyclones is that it’s been a LONG time since they won B2B games. One would have to go back to a 76-66 win over Seton Hall (shocking in retrospect) to find the last time they did so. That was back on December 8th. Since then, ISU is only 3-6 SU overall.

Sometimes it’s as simple as “who’s at home?” Iowa State has not won a “true” road game all season (0-5 SU) while Auburn is 11-0 SU at home. The Tigers are averaging 84.6 PPG at home and they should hit that number today considering the Cyclones allow 79.6 PPG outside of Ames. It’s been a 17.4 PPG margin of victory for Auburn here at home this season and with ISU a money-burning 0 for their last 6 ATS as a road dog of +6.5 to +9, I’ll lay the number here. ISU is just 1-6 ATS as a dog this season. 8* Auburn

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Denver, to me, is the sixth best team in the Western Conference. I thought they greatly overachieved LY in finishing 2nd. They were able to do so in large part on the strength of a league-best 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. Sure enough, they are 6-3 SU in such games this season and have been as high as 2nd in the standings. But there are five other teams with better YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings. Unlike LY, I expect the Nuggets to slowly fall down the pecking order.

New Orleans seems to be a team on the rise. We all know that Zion Williamson is now an active participant as the #1 overall draft pick made his pro debut Wednesday against San Antonio. While the Pelicans lost the game 121-117, Williamson definitely showed signs of why he was chosen #1 overall. He finished the game with 22 points including a barrage of 17 straight in the 4Q. While it ultimately wasn’t enough to win or cover, the Pelicans still are 11-5 SU the L16 games while going 13-2-1 ATS. 

I think it speaks volumes that New Orleans is favored here, given the respective WL records. Then again, the Pelicans are 2-0 SU/ATS vs. the Nuggets this year, winning on both Halloween and X-Mas, and those wins came without Zion in the lineup. Denver is off a 16-point loss the other night in Houston and dealing with multiple injuries right now, the most notables ones being Jamal Murray (ankle), Paul Milsap (knee) and Gary Harris Jr (abdominal). Those are three starters missing from lineup. Of the three, only Harris has a chance to play here, but he’s listed as questionable. Also injured are Mason Plumlee and Michael Porter Jr. 10* New Orleans

10* Iona (7:00 ET): It has not been a good year (so far) for Iona. The Gaels has a strangely “light” schedule in November and December, playing only seven games total. They’re set to double that number for January tonight as they host MAAC rival Canisius. While just 2-4 SU this month and 4-9 SU overall, Iona looks like a great play in this spot despite all their previous difficulties. Canisius has pulled three straight “small” upsets (all as dogs of +2 or less) but a fourth seems quite unlikely. 

Iona has been very poor so far at the betting window. They are 2-10 ATS overall including 1-6 as a favorite. That they continue to be favored though tells me something. Something to keep in mind is that the Gaels have played only four home games all year! Two have been one-point losses (to St. Peter’s and Niagara). So their overall (and conference) record could be a lot better. Keep in mind that while Iona is currently last in the MAAC (2-4 SU), only two games separate them from first! 

The Gaels won last Friday here at home, beating Fairfield 64-57. Unfortunately, they could not sustain that success, losing their next time out (Sunday) to Marist by a score of 83-73 (that was on the road). I think this team is ready to make a run. As for Canisius, regression seems likely. Before their string of upsets, they’d lost six in a row. They are just 3-8 SU on the road this season. The Golden Griffins shot better than 60% in their last game, which was at home, a number they won’t come close to duplicating out on the road. 10* Iona

10* Over Bucks/Hornets (3:05 ET): Charlotte is not good at all, but I feel Milwaukee can “carry them” to an Over here in Paris, France. The location is the reason for the early start time, obviously and I don’t expect that either team “packed its defense.” Of course, the Bucks lead the league in scoring at 119.4 PPG and should have little difficulty scoring on a Hornets team that they already hung 137 on in a win earlier this season. The Bucks are strong defensively as well, but could “slip up” a bit in the unfamiliar environment. 

Now I realize there weren’t any defensive issues for Milwaukee in either of its last two games. They held both Brooklyn and Chicago under 100 points in a pair of victories, extending the team’s win streak to seven games and overall run to 12-1 since X-Mas. Compared to recent games, this is a really low total for the Bucks, who rarely see O/U lines below 220 pts these days. The total for that 1st meeting with the Hornets was 226 and went Over, so it’s a little surprising to see the number this low, even in Paris. 

In that first meeting, the Bucks blitzed the Hornets with 56.5% shooting en route to 137 points. It was one of the most efficient offensive performances all year from the best team in the league. Charlotte is trending in a very different direction lately as they have lost seven in a row and failed to hit 100 in the L2 losses. But I’ll call for an improved effort on the offensive end tonight. Milwaukee has gone Over in four straight games vs. sub-.500 opponents while the Over is 17-7 for Charlotte when they’re off a DD loss at home (lost 106-83 to Orlando on Sunday). 10* Over Bucks/Hornets

10* Under Utah Valley State/CS-Bakersfield (10:00 ET): Utah Valley comes in at 8-12 SU on the year and just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 72-70 win over UT Rio Grand Valley last Saturday. But the Wolverines failed to cover (were -4.5) so the ATS losing skid is still alive at four straight games. Tonight they head to Cal State Bakersfield to take on a team that’s returning home after B2B road wins against the bottom of the Big West. I am envisioning this to be an ugly, low-scoring game.

So CS-Bakersfield’s two road wins came against Missouri-KC and Chicago State. The latter is probably the worst team in the entire country, so read little into the fact that the Roadrunners were able to shoot 51% from the floor in that game. It was actually their highest shooting percentage vs. a D-I opponent all season. While you may look at CS-Bakersfield’s scoring average at home this year (78.5 PPG) and be weary over playing the Under, take note that scoring average is greatly inflated by three wins over non-DI opponents. They’ve scored more than 75 pts vs. just one D-I foe this year and that was the second game of the season.

Utah Valley has gone Under in four straight games, due in large part to some dreadful efforts at the offensive end. Prior to the win last Saturday, they had scored 56, 50 and 63 pts in their previous three contests. The Wolverines shoot a poor percentage (30.2) for the year from three-point range, so they’re not much of a threat there. Even in victory, they were just 5 of 21 from behind the arc Saturday. 10* Under Utah Valley State/CS Bakersfield

10* Eastern Illinois (8:30 ET): We’re heading to the Ohio Valley Conference for this one, a league that still has TWO unbeaten teams in conference play. Believe it or not, no other conference can say that. But neither of those two teams - Austin Peay or Murray State - are involved in this play. Instead, it’s two teams in the “middle of the pack,” but are trending in opposite directions. Eastern Illinois (Tony Romo’s alma mater) is off a blowout win and back to .500 overall while UT Martin has lost three straight (all at home) to fall to 5-12 SU on the year.

To be fair, UT Martin’s losing streak has come at the hands of the three top teams in the OVC, including both unbeatens. But they really struggled on the defensive end against those three teams, giving up 85, 84 and 92 points. There’s really no way of sugarcoating just how bad the Skyhawks are at the defensive end. They are giving up 83.5 PPG on the year and only two of their L10 opponents have failed to score at least 82 points on them. They are second to last in the COUNTRY in defensive efficiency, ahead of only Houston Baptist.

The defensive issues have obviously resulted in a poor start to conference play for UT Martin (1-5 SU) and now comes a visit to Eastern Illinois, who is averaging a whopping 91.8 PPG at home. They’ve only played five home games, but the Panthers are undefeated while outscoring their opponents by more than 30 points per game! That’s really impressive. They are in off an 84-59 beatdown of Tenn Tech as 11-pt favorites, which snapped a 6-game ATS losing skid. The Panthers are shooting better than 53% from the field at home! I realize UT Martin has faced Austin Peay and Murray State a total of four times already, but this is a terrible matchup for their terrible defense. 10* Eastern Illinois

10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Wizards lost last night, in overtime, 134-129 at Miami. But even with it being the second night of a back to back here in Cleveland, the Wiz should not be in a position where they are getting points. The 12-32 Cavaliers have the league’s worst net efficiency rating as they are getting outscored by 10.5 points per 100 possessions. They also have not been favored to win a game since January 2nd - when they lost outright here at home to Charlotte. Overall, the Cavs are 0-3 ATS as chalk this season. 

Washington dug itself a big hole last night in Miami, trailing by as many as 21 points in the 3rd quarter. They started the game by missing their first eight three-point attempts and were just 4 of 22 from beyond the arc by halftime. But give the Wizards credit for getting back into the game and forcing OT. They even had a 118-115 lead going into the final minute of regulation. But it was not to be as the Wiz dropped to 1-6 SU in games decided by 5 pts or less this season. They also took 16 fewer free throws than the Heat, who have lost only one home game all season.

I had the Over in last night’s game, an easy winner obviously (even before OT) and there’s definitely a chance this game could turn into a “track meet” as well considering we’re looking at a pair of teams with the worst two defensive efficiency ratings in the league right now. But the big difference is that the Cavaliers (104.8 PPG) can’t score like the Wizards (114.7 PPG) can. Washington is a surprising 4-1 ATS without rest this year and has revenge for a loss to Cleveland that occurred at home back in November. The Cavs have lost their last five games, including a terrible 106-86 setback here at home to the Knicks on Monday. They can’t be trusted to win a game under almost any circumstances. 10* Washington

8* Delaware (6:30 ET): The CAA “ain’t what it used to be,” so what we’re left with is a far more “wide-open” league. A conference that has produced TWO Final Four teams this century does have another storyline going for it in 2020 as current leader William & Mary is one of only FOUR original D-I schools NEVER to have made the NCAA Tournament. But tonight, the focus is on Delaware and Hofstra, both of whom are off a close games that didn’t turn out the same way. For a variety of reasons, I’ll be taking the points here. 

Delaware is off a 79-78 win over Elon, a game that was decided on a three-pointer with just two seconds left. While they escaped with the SU, the Blue Hens did not come close to covering the 10-point spread and are now just 1-5 ATS their L6 games. Tonight, they are looking to make it B2B wins for the first time since conference play began. Interestingly enough, this will be just the second time Delaware has been an underdog to a Colonial opponent and it’s the most points they’ll be taking for any game since facing Villanova last month.

Hofstra lost by two at College of Charleston Saturday, capping a three-game road trip where every decision was by exactly two points. The Pride won the first two games, 74-72 over Northeastern and 63-61 over UNC Wilmington. All three games saw the game winning basket made in the final 10 seconds. While a fine home team, this just looks like too many points for Hofstra to be laying. Being in the lower half of the CAA standings, Delaware figures to come in as the more desperate side and I just can’t see them losing by double digits here. 8* Delaware

10* Under Rutgers/Iowa (9:00 ET): Rutgers’ games have been going Under for quite awhile now. The last seven, a streak which goes all the way back to December 14th, have all stayed Under. But more important to the Scarlet Knights right now is that they’ve covered nine straight games, a streak which stretches back to December 9th. They’ve lost only one game during that time - by three at Illinois on Jan 11 - and have to be feeling pretty good about their chances of surviving the Big 10 gauntlet heading into Iowa City tonight.

Iowa has won its last three games as well as seven of its last nine. The Hawkeyes are now nationally ranked (#19 in both polls) and that’s pretty close to where I have them in my own power rankings (#18). They just hung 90 points on Michigan last Friday, but repeating that kind of offensive effort here against a team that ranks #7 nationally (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency seems unlikely.

In its last nine games, the most points Rutgers has allowed is 65. They’ve held six opponents below 60 points. For the year, they allow just 58.7 PPG, which matches their efficiency ranking (#7 in the country). Obviously, Iowa is a better offensive team than most of the teams that Rutgers has faced. But Under is the call here. 10* Under Rutgers/Iowa

10* Columbus (7:35 ET): The Blue Jackets are red hot and look to remain that way heading into the All-Star Break. Winners of five straight, they are locked in a tight battle within the Metro for potential playoff position. Right now, they are fifth in the division and would be the final Wild Card team. But a win here would enable them to leapfrog Carolina going into the Break. During this five-game win streak, the Blue Jackets have posted three shutouts and outscored opponents 16-3. 

Out West, Winnipeg is in a similar position trying to battle for a playoff spot. But right now they’d be on the outside looking in. They are three points back and have lost three in a row, getting outscored 16-4 in the process. They’ve also dropped five of the last six. So, in terms of momentum (still hate that word!) going into the Break, it’s a very different deal with these two teams. This will also be the Jets’ third road game in four nights. All have been out East. 

Columbus has revenge for a 4-3 loss up in Manitoba back in November. But this time they are at home and they are a lot stingier here, giving up only 2.2 goals per game. Only two teams - Philadelphia and Dallas - have allowed fewer goals at home this year. Winnipeg also gives up far too many shots per game (34.3 per game on the road). Recent form is too difficult to ignore here and the line being steamed up this morning only serves to confirm my view on this matchup. 10* Columbus

10* Memphis (7:35 ET): Last Friday, the Grizzlies saw a 6-game ATS win streak end when they failed to cover the nine-point spread in a 113-109 win over Cleveland. Monday saw the end of a 7-game SU win streak when they fell to the Pelicans 126-116. They allowed New Orleans to make a franchise-record 21 three-pointers in that game. Despite both the ATS and SU win streaks having ended, I like the Grizzlies to cover tonight in Boston, something which they have done in 18 of their previous 22 visits. 

The Celtics picked up a signature win on MLK Day, absolutely annihilating the Lakers 139-107. But before beating the Lakers, Boston had lost six of eight and three straight. I would not be confident in them maintaining the “high” of beating the Lakers. They’ve suffered recent losses to teams worse than the Grizzlies and winning here by the margin suggested by the oddsmakers is going to be tough. Honestly, a Memphis SU win seems more likely than them getting blown out. 

The Grizzlies have surged into 8th place in the West thanks to an offense that has scored at least 110 points in every game since December 21st. So it’s hard to cover a large spread against against them. Expect them to defend the three-point line better here than they did vs. NO. It’s been a month since Memphis lost B2B games with them going a perfect 4-0 ATS off their L4 SU losses. 10* Memphis

8* Over Heat/Wizards (7:35 ET): On average, Wizards’ games are the highest scoring of any team’s in the league. You’re looking at an average of 234.1 points per game. That’s obviously very high. What is - by far - the most interesting thing about this team is that their dramatic split between offensive and defensive efficiency. While they’ve recently gotten less efficient on the offensive end, it is their defensive efficiency - or rather lack of it - that’s really killing them. They are also dead last in the league in points allowed.

Miami is coming off an overtime win against Sacramento. That improved their home record to a league-best 19-1. I played accordingly in a recent home and home with the Spurs, taking them at home and fading on the road. I won both times. This spread is a little high, but what’s notable is how the Heat’s scoring average jumps here at home to 115.7 PPG. They only average 108.0 PPG on the road. That’s actually a pretty sizable split. Regardless if home or away, the Over is 26-16-1 in all Heat games this season.

So a home matchup against the worst defensive team in the league seems poised to go Over. The Wizards allowing a shocking 122.2 PPG on the road. Opponents shoot nearly 50% from the field! These teams have met twice already this season with the home team winning both games. Another key is the Wizards are 13-4 Over in games vs. .500 or better foes. Look for this to turn into a track meet. 8* Over Heat/Wizards

10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): Duquesne started the season red hot. They were even one of the last remaining unbeatens at 10-0. The Dukes then lost their next two games, but have subsequently bounced back with 5-0 start in Atlantic 10 play. They and Dayton are the only two A-10 teams without a loss. But a generous schedule is as responsible for this 15-2 SU record as much as anything else. The Dukes’ strength of schedule is outside the top 300 and it’s telling that they are not even in the top 75 of the KenPom rankings.

Rhode Island is 4-1 in the A-10. Their only loss was to Richmond, 69-61 at home, in the conference opener. Not only is that the Rams only conference loss, it’s their only home defeat. They are 8-0 otherwise in their own gym and Saturday saw them take care of LaSalle here, 66-63. While the Rhodies did not cover the 10-pt spread, that was because of a poor shooting night. I expect them to bounce back on the offensive end tonight plus they’ve held their L5 opponents to a 39.7 FG%.

Three of Rhode Island’s five losses were to Maryland, LSU and West Virginia. Duquesne simply is not in that same class. Keep in mind that none of those three losses were here at home either. Duquesne needed OT to get by Fordham 58-56 last week as an 18-point favorite. Fordham is one of two teams in the conference (St. Joe’s is the other) without a win. I really like the short number here. 10* Rhode Island

8* Miami FL (9:00 ET): I mentioned Duke in the WF/Clemson writeup and here we are playing against them Tuesday. The Blue Devils have lost two in a row, dropping them to #8 in the rankings. While I still believe this is easily one of the best teams in the country, it’s also a good time to fade Coach K as most bettors are going to look at this matchup and simply assume “bounce back.” Duke will win most likely, but it won’t be as easy as it was down in Coral Gables earlier this month when they beat Miami by 33 points.

That was a horrendous loss for Miami as they were coming off an impressive upset at Clemson on New Year’s Eve. Since the Duke game, the Hurricanes have lost three of four, but they were quite competitive on Saturday against another top 10 squad, that being Florida State. The Seminoles are very likely the ACC’s 3rd best team this season (trailing only Duke & Louisville), yet the Canes were able to hang tight,, losing by only four points (83-79) at home. They covered as seven-point dogs and are 3-1 ATS this season after allowing 80+ points in their last game.

Duke lost a heavily-hyped showdown with Louisville on Saturday, 79-73, right here at home as 8.5-point chalk. It was their second loss of the season in Durham, the only being that absolute shocker to Stephen F. Austin. It was a near identical score when the Blue Devils lost at Clemson exactly one week ago (79-72). It’s very rare to see Duke off B2B losses and the number looks inflated, especially off two straight poor defensive performances. 8* Miami FL

analysis soon

10* Under Wake Forest/Clemson (8:00 ET): A couple of 9-8 teams fighting to stay relevant in the ACC meet Tuesday in Death Valley. Wake Forest is off a big 80-62 home win over Boston College on Sunday, which ended a three-game losing skid. But it’s a quick turnaround for the Demon Deacons as tonight they hit the road and face a Clemson team that just had a three-game win streak snapped with a 60-54 loss at NC State on Saturday. The Tigers still covered that game (were +7), so they are 4-0 ATS the last four games. 

It’s not the pointspread I’m concerned with tonight, however. Wake Forest also comes in having gone Over in eight consecutive contests. But some of those Overs have been by the “skin of the teeth” for Danny Manning’s squad. In fact, five of the eight games have gone Over by no more than four points. The Demon Deacons scored 80 points Sunday against B.C. but won’t come close to that number tonight as they are averaging just 68.7 PPG outside of Winston-Salem. Their last road game saw them get held to just 59 points by Duke. 

Clemson is ranked 33rd in the country in defensive efficiency, a strong rating. This is a team that beat both North Carolina and Duke three days apart earlier this month. Saturday’s loss to NC State was a revenge game for the Wolfpack after the Tigers had beaten them here at home on January 4th. The 60-54 loss in Raleigh snapped Clemson’s own four-game Over streak. They hold teams to just 39.7% shooting here at home and WF is shooting that exact same percentage on the road. 10* Under Wake Forest/Clemson

8* Boston (7:05 ET): I like the Bruins quite a bit here. Excluding losses that occurred beyond regulation, this is a team that’s gone 16-2 SU on home ice this season. Tonight, they are hosting a team that knows all too well the power that home ice advantage can have. For the first two years of its existence, Vegas was nearly unbeatable at home. But this year, there’s been a “leveling off” of sorts for the Golden Knights, who are basically just a .500 team. They are 25-19-7 SU overall and simply not in the Bruins’ class.

Vegas has lost five out of its last six and this game comes at the end of a four-game East Coast trip. They’ve already lost at both Buffalo and Montreal with a win over lowly Ottawa squeezed in between. While they’ve had the last two days off, the Golden Knights are 0-4 SU this season coming off three or more consecutive road games. Boston is a team they haven’t fared well against in their short existence, losing four of the five all-time matchups, including 4-3 in Las Vegas back in October. 

The Bruins come in having lost three of four, but all three losses were on the road. They won the front end of a home and home with Pittsburgh, 4-1, before losing on the road Sunday. But Boston held an early 3-0 lead in Pittsburgh and probably should have been able to put that one away. Knowing they let two points slip away, the Bruins should come out very focused on motivated here tonight. Vegas has trailed by 3+ goals in three of its last five games. 8* Boston

10* Purdue (7:00 ET): Purdue is a team I’ve been closely tracking for awhile now. With eight losses already on their resume, the Boilermakers certainly aren’t getting any consideration as a Top 25 team right now. But, make no mistake about it, this is a team that’s far better than it’s 10-8 SU record would seem to indicate. Nine days ago, they proved what they are capable of by demolishing #11 Michigan State (another underrated team) 72-41 right here in West Lafayette. Despite a loss at Maryland on Saturday, both the KenPom ratings and my own consider Purdue to be one of the 25 best teams in the country. 

Illinois is one of the teams that may pay the price for the Big 10 being so good this year. There are 12 teams from this conference that I have rated within my Top 40 in the country. That’s amazing. The problem for the Illini is that I have them 11th in the pecking order. It’s pretty hard to make the NCAA Tournament when you’re only the 11th best team in your own conference, though Joe Lunardi currently has 11 Big 10 teams in his projected field and the Fighting Illini are among them. Still, despite what happened when these teams met on January 5th, I have Illinois rated as the inferior squad. 

What happened on January 5th was a 63-37 beatdown of the Boilermakers by the Illini over in Champaign-Urbana. That shocking result began what is now a four-game win streak for Illinois. But I believe revenge is going to be sweet for Purdue tonight. They are 8-1 SU at home and winning by an average of almost 19 PPG. Illinois has been outscored by about 6.0 PPG when they leave campus. Purdue has a top 6 defensive efficiency rating per KenPom and will obviously shoot the ball better tonight than they did two weeks ago when they made only 25% of their FG attempts vs. the Illini. Love the spot and the number here. 10* Purdue.

8* Portland State (10:05 ET): Portland State began 2020 with four straight road games, three of them ending up as losses. But they returned home on Saturday and prevailed 82-76 against Idaho State. The Vikings have played a lot of close games in conference play, but tonight they host one of the Big Sky’s weaker teams, that being Weber State. Damian Lillard’s alma mater also happens to be off a win over Idaho State (Thursday) but they needed OT and are only 6-11 SU on the season. This will be Weber State’s fourth time playing on the road since the new year began.

Weber State has won just one time as an underdog (1-10 SU in that role) all year and that was 72-67 at Utah Valley State back on December 4th. They’re just 4-7 ATS getting points so them getting such a small number here doesn’t make them the least bit attractive. Again, the Wildcats needed overtime to snap a three-game losing skid on Thursday. They trailed by seven at halftime. It was the fourth straight game where they were held to 64 pts or less in regulation. This team is 287th in offensive efficiency and 280th in defensive efficiency. 

Portland State has been one of the worst defensive teams in the country so far, but is far more efficient than Weber State on the offensive end (80th nationally). Despite a quicker turnaround between games, I like the spot more for the Vikings as they are at home where they’ve won 25 of their last 36 games straight up. Weber State’s struggles as an underdog aren’t just limited to this season. They’ve lost 23 of their last 28 in that role. It’ll be too much offense from Portland State (82.1 PPG at home) for the underdog to overcome in this one. 8* Portland State

8* Indiana (9:05 ET): The Pacers pulled out a win in Denver last night, rallying with a 41-point 4Q, 18 of those coming from Doug McDermott. They also owned the Nuggets from behind the three-point line, outscoring them there 39-9. The win was the fifth straight for Indiana, who is now 28-15 SU for the year and tied with Boston for 4th place in the Eastern Conference standings. They’ve covered the spread four times during the five-game win streak and won outright both times they were an underdog. They haven’t been a dog of this size since playing at Milwaukee before X-Mas. 

Speaking of X-Mas, Utah must have gotten one heck of a gift because they’re 11-1 SU since the holiday. They’ve climbed up to third in the West, tied w/ Denver at 29-13. The Jazz’s home record is 16-3 SU, which is one of the best home win percentages in the entire league. They’ve lost only two games since December 10th and both were on the road. Since suffering their last home loss (12/9 vs. OKC), the team has gone 16-2 SU overall.

But as hot as the Jazz have been, I feel they are due to “cool off” some. This line is inflated due to it being the second game of a back to back for Indiana. But the Pacers are a solid 3-3 SU in this situation, only being outscored by 3.8 PPG. Too often we see the rested team overvalued in this spot and that’s the case again here. The Jazz have a losing SU record (6-8) vs. teams that have winning records. Incredibly, their L10 games have all been against sub-.500 foes, which explains the win streak. 8* Indiana

10* Charlotte (5:05 ET): This is the first meeting of the season between these Southeast Division rivals.They split four games last year. Neither comes into MLK Day playing particularly well. Orlando is in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, but is just 20-23 SU on the season after losing B2B games. Charlotte has lost six in a row, but at least they are now back home after a winless four-game trip out West. This will be the sixth straight road game for the Magic, the last five all coming out West. The situation definitely looks better for the Hornets. 

After what he called a “disturbing” effort by his team at Golden State the other night, Magic HC Steve Clifford didn’t mince words when it came to the set up for today’s game. "The Charlotte game is going to be difficult because of the travel, the schedule, which to me is ridiculous." Again, Orlando is coming off five straight road games out West, four of which came in a six-day span. Meanwhile, Charlotte hasn’t played since Wednesday and after tonight won’t play again until Friday when they face the Bucks in Paris. This game figures to have their full attention. Hornets HC James Borrego seems confident about tonight after all the practice time his team was able to log. 

Orlando was favored (by six) when it lost at Golden State. That was a really bad loss considering the Warriors had lost their previous 10 games and were very short-handed. After jumping out to a 13-0 lead, the Magic were outscored 109-88 the rest of the way. It marked the third time on this trip that they were held below 100 points, nothing new considering they are the league’s lowest scoring team. They made just 29% from 3-pt range vs. Golden State as they fell to 3-7 SU L10 road games. It’s an easy decision to fade them as a favorite in this spot. 10* Charlotte

10* Over Red Wings/Avalanche (3:05 ET): Colorado has come on strong these last two games, beating San Jose 4-0 and St. Louis 5-3. That pair of victories now has them in second place in the Central Division w/ 60 pts, eight back of the first place Blues. They’ve got the Western Conference’s best goal differential (+33), so it would certainly appear as if this club is going to have a productive second half of the season. With 173 goals scored in 48 games, the Avs are the West’s highest scoring team. 

Detroit is the worst team in all of hockey. They are in last place in the Atlantic with just 28 points. To put that number in its proper perspective, every other team in the league has at least 41 points. The Red Wings also have a -85 YTD goal differential. To put that number in proper perspective, the next worst goal differential in the league is -47. So things are looking rather bleak in the Motor City right now. The team’s biggest issue is that they have given up the most goals in the league. So an Avs team that’s among the league leaders in scoring certainly looks to be a poor matchup. 

While the Red Wings are also last in the league in goals scored, we can count on Colorado doing most of the heavy lifting here anyway. The Avalanche have scored nine goals in the last two games alone. They average 3.8 goals per game on the season while Detroit gives up 4.2 on the road. Getting four or five goals here from the Avs is a very strong possibility, so the hope is that the Red Wings can get at least two. The Over is 6-2 in Colorado’s last eight home games. 10* Over Red Wings/Avalanche

10* Over Cal/UCLA (8:00 ET): Neither team is playing well and both are off less than stellar offensive efforts. California put just 56 points on the board Thursday night at USC in what ended up being a humiliating 32 point defeat. UCLA could manage only 59 points in a 15-point loss at Stanford Wednesday. The two 8-9 teams meet Sunday night in Pauley Pavillion, both desperate for a win. UCLA is 1-6 SU/ATS its last seven games (0-3 SU/ATS L3) while Cal is 3-7 SU/ATS its L10. 

The struggles you’ve seen from both of these teams are not limited to the offensive end of the floor. Cal let USC shoot 50% from the field as it remained winless on the road this year. A big reason for that winless record is that they give up 75.7 PPG away from Berkeley. They don’t exactly shoot well either, but going against UCLA should help. The Bruins have given up at least 74 points in six of their last seven games.

UCLA’s last two opponents have both shot better than 50%. I expect this to turn into a pretty high scoring game. Cal is 164th nationally in defensive efficiency while UCLA is an atrocious 233rd. UCLA is 7-4 Over as a favorite this year while Cal is 4-1 Over after being held to 60 points or less in its last game. 10* Over Cal/UCLA

analysis soon

10* Under Packers/49ers (6:40 ET): This total is pretty close to what the combined number of points was in the regular season meeting. Of course that game, a 37-8 49ers’ win and cover as 3-pt chalk, was completely lopsided. I think Green Bay is going to be a lot more competitive this time around although I won’t deny that San Francisco remains the much better team, confirmed by the fact that they have a +186 YTD point differential while Green Bay is just +68. 

But this is a lot of points to lay to a team that has Aaron Rodgers at QB. Then again, Rodgers had one of his worst days as a pro back in Week 12 on this very field. He threw for just 104 yards and averaged 1.7 yards per attempt with no completion going longer than 15 yards. Fresh off its bye and back at full strength, the 49ers’ defense displayed similar form last week against the Vikings, holding them to just 3.3 yards per play and seven first downs total. In other words, I don’t expect the Packers to score very many points this week.

But the Green Bay defense is likely to keep them in this one. This is a team that hasn’t lost since that regular season matchup against the 49ers and during the 6-game win streak, they have yielded a total of just 94 points! Prior to last week’s 28-23 win over Seattle (I had the Over), the Packers’ previous four games had all stayed Under the total. It’s a much better defense that they are up against here and last week the Pack were held to 7 points after halftime. For the season, both defenses are allowing less than 20 PPG. 10* Under Packers/49ers

8* San Antonio (3:05 ET): When these teams met down in Miami on Wednesday, I felt taking the Heat was a very logical call. After all, they came into the game with the league’s best home record (17-1 SU) and were laying a pretty short number. Well, turns out I was right as Miami is now 18-1 SU at home after beating the Spurs 106-100. But they just BARELY covered and it was more of a struggle than I anticipated as the Heat actually trailed going into the 4Q. Each team has played once since then and it the same result for both with the Heat winning (at OKC) and SA losing (to Atlanta).

The Spurs have made the postseason every year since 1998, which is an NBA record. But it looks like that streak may be in serious jeopardy now with the team currently not in the top eight in the Western Conference. They’re two games back of suddenly red hot Memphis and an embarrassing loss to lowly Atlanta certainly did not help matters. That loss, which was on Friday, was 121-120 as a nine-point favorite. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in the 4Q.

After a loss like that, I expect the Spurs to be ready to go this afternoon. Miami is nowhere near as strong on the road where they win just 50% of the time. They’ve been outscored in their road games. While it was a 115-106 win at Oklahoma City on Friday, the Heat are just 6-10 ATS this season after scoring 115+ in their previous game. They have previously lost at Washington and New York. There was also a 20-pt loss in Orlando. The Spurs are 54-34 ATS in revenge spots the L3 seasons. 8* San Antonio

10* Tennessee (3:05 ET): The Titans obviously made a lot of history last week in what was also a big win for the sportsbooks. Baltimore had been 36-0 all-time (SU) as a double digit favorite, the only franchise never to lose as DD chalk. They’d also never lost at home as more than 8.5-pt favorite. But the Titans changed all that with a 28-12 upset and are now 8-1 ATS all-time as underdogs of 7 or more under HC Mike Vrabel, pulling SEVEN outright upsets along the way including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season.

Kansas City won its Divisional Round game against Houston 51-31, but anyone that watched knows it wasn’t that easy as the Chiefs had to rally from an early 24-0 hole. Outscoring the Texans 51-7 the rest of the way was quite an achievement, however, here they are up against a far more stout team on the defensive side of the ball. Even with last week’s ATS victory, the Chiefs are still only 2-10 ATS all-time at Arrowhead in the playoffs.

Tennessee has already beaten New England and Baltimore to get here while all Kansas City did was beat Houston, the team I had rated the lowest coming into the playoffs. My number for this game is +4.5 so there’s clear value on the Titans, who have already beaten the Chiefs this year, 35-32 (+4) in Nashville back in Week 10. I had Tennessee in that game. The Titans defense has allowed just 25 points in two playoff games while the offense features RB Henry, who has gone for 180+ yds in both games. Since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB, Tennessee has gone 9-3 SU w/ a point differential of +82. While they were outgained by Baltimore, that was because of garbage time. I passed on the Titans last week, not here. 10* Tennessee

10* Sodiq Yusuff (9:15 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds at flyweight (125 lbs). While it has the chance to be one of the more exciting and action-packed bouts on tonight’s card, I’m taking Yusuff to win. 

Yusuff comes in sporting a 10-1 record. Having made his way into the UFC via Dana White’s “Contender Series,” Yusuff has won his last five fights, three of them in the first round. His only loss was in 2017 and he’s improved tremendously since then. He looked great in August’s 1st round TKO of Gabriel Benitez. Yusuff is the stronger and more athletic fighter here.

Fili is also on a win streak, but the lack of a good defensive game makes it tough to believe he’ll emerge victorious here. Unlike Yusuff, Fili has multiple losses on his resume, six to be exact. He was 2-0 last year, but lost once in 2018. Coming off a 1st round KO himself, it feels as if Fili is a little bit overvalued for this fight. Before that last win, he hadn’t stopped an opponent since 2015.  10* Sodiq Yusuff

8* Houston (8:35 ET): It should be a good one for this first installment of Saturday night NBA on ABC. But a number of factors are pointing me in the direction of the Rockets. First off, while both teams come in off a loss, Houston is clearly more desperate. They’ve actually lost two in a row to fall to fifth in a very top-heavy Western Conference. Losing by 10 at home to Portland Thursday night was kind of shocking, but the Rockets are 6-1 ATS this season off a double digit loss. That makes it seem quite logical to lay the short number. 

The Lakers’ loss to Orlando Wednesday night was by just a single point (119-118) and ended a nine-game win streak. They hadn’t lost since X-Mas. All season, the Lakers have lost just three times by double digits and they are 22-1 SU vs. sub-.500 teams. The one loss was to Orlando as both Anthony Davis and Rajon Rondo sat. Both are officially listed as questionable for tonight. Against teams with winning records, the Lakers are a more “mortal” 11-7.

This is only the second time the Rockets have lost two in a row this season. They did have a three-game losing skid in November, but otherwise have been a “safe bet” off a loss. Two straight losses as a favorite is a first, so again they’ll be the more “desperate” side tonight. This one simply means more to them. 8* Houston

7* Puck Line New Jersey (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only. I am backing the Devils at +1.5. Columbus has surged recently, winning three straight and 7 of its last 9 games. But do not count out the underdog in this one. Over the last four games, New Jersey has played Washington twice, Tampa Bay and Toronto. That’s a tough gauntlet. They won at Washington and also snapped the Lightning’s long win streak. So they are certainly capable of pulling the upset here. 

Even with the “surge” here in 2020, the Blue Jackets still grade out as a pretty average team. They’ve scored just one more goal than what they’ve allowed over the course of the season. Prior to these L3 games, they obviously had a negative goal differential. Also note that three of Columbus’ last six wins came by one goal. That result would give us a win here based on how we’re playing this matchup. 

New Jersey has scored only one fewer goal than Columbus this season. The big difference then is obviously the other side of the ledger where the Blue Jackets have allowed basically 40 fewer goals. But they’re also only 3-10 SU in Saturday games this season. C-bus was outshot 34-18 by Carolina its last game. New Jersey’s power play is set to improve as they have gotten healthier. 7* Puck Line New Jersey (+1.5)

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Up next in the 3-pack is the Flyers, who could REALLY use a win here as they’ve fallen off the furious pace set by the top four teams in the Metro. In fact, they’ve actually fallen into sixth place in the division, thanks to a less than stellar start to the New Year. They’ve lost six of nine overall and just dropped a game to Montreal here at home on Thursday. But this is also a team that prior to that 4-1 defeat had just beaten both Boston and St. Louis, last year’s two Stanley Cup Finalists. 

Los Angeles has a lot bigger concerns than Philly right now. They are the last place team in the Pacific and their 41 points are the fewest in the whole Western Conference. They’ve lost six of their last seven games, including three straight on the road. Tonight marks the end of a week-long trip that began with them getting shutout last Saturday in Carolina. Since then, it’s been subsequent 4-3 losses to Tampa Bay and Florida.

This is a revenge game for the Flyers, who lost 5-3 out in LA on New Year’s Eve. That came in the middle of a six-game West Coast swing and they lost the next three games as well. But the Flyers have been a much better home team this year, going 15-4-4 SU in the City of Brotherly Love and their scoring differential here is quite large as they average 3.5 goals per game while giving up only 2.3. Everything here points to the Flyers getting revenge for that loss on New Year’s Eve. LA trailed 4-0 at one point in its last game. 8* Philadelphia

8* Calgary (4:00 ET): The Flames are tied for the Pacific Division lead with 57 points, but a negative goal differential (-9) for the year would seem to indicate that they’ve overachieved. Certainly, the club is nowhere near as dominant as it was a season ago when it finished first in the entire Western Conference with 107 points. Normally, that distinction might have me looking to fade, but Calgary is lucky here in that they are drawing a very weak opponent. Ottawa not only has a -36 goal differential this year, they’ve also lost nine in a row and are second to last in the Atlantic Division.

If playing against Ottawa seems familiar, well, that’s because I just did on Thursday. It was a win with Vegas, right here in Canada’s capital city. The Golden Knights prevailed 4-2, outshooting the Senators 43-35 and it was 4-1 before Ottawa notched a relatively meaningless power play goal with 7:30 to go. The Sens have been outscored 38-19 during their losing streak, a 2:1 margin, and that’s a frighteningly low number of total goals scored. 

Despite still being “in the red” goal differential wise, the Flames have won six of their last seven games. The only loss was a head-scratcher at Montreal, a team that (like Ottawa) came in on a long losing streak. Because they lost that game, I expect the Flames to be “on their toes” here, just like they were in an impressive win at Toronto Thursday night. A win here makes it a winning trip through Eastern Canada. In Calgary, the Flames had no problem beating the Senators 3-1 in late November. They were priced very high for that game so we’re getting a bargain here on the road. 8* Calgary

10* Arizona (2:30 ET): Last Sunday, we touted Arizona as our Game of the Week and they failed. It was an embarrassing loss at Oregon State where the Wildcats went down 82-65. In our analysis for that game, I made it pretty clear that Arizona was better than its record shows. In fact, I’d go so far as to call this one of the most underrated teams in the country at this point! They bounced back from Sunday’s loss w/ a nice 93-77 beatdown of Utah here in Tucson Thursday night. Now it’s time to take care of Colorado.

Colorado comes in ranked #20 in the country. They are one of just two Pac 12 teams ranked in the current AP Poll (Stanford is #25 in the Coaches). But, by now, I’m sure you’ve noticed this line which would certainly seem to indicate that unranked Arizona is better in the eyes of the oddsmakers. I definitely agree with that assertion and the oddsmakers are usually better than the pollsters anyway. I’ll take things a step further and call Arizona the best team in the Pac 12 despite what the WL records may say. 

Arizona is 12-5 SU on the season. But before Oregon State got them on Sunday, the previous four losses had all been by five points or fewer. Three of the losses were to top 10 teams including Gonzaga & Baylor, who are currently 1-2. At home, the Wildcats are 10-1 SU and outscoring opponents by 25.6 PPG. So there’s no hesitation to lay the points here. Colorado had a nice road win Thursday, 68-61 at Arizona State, but as those who follow the Pac 12 closely will tell you, it’s the second road game of the weekend that usually gets you. The Buffaloes have dropped 20 of their last 29 “true” road games. 10* Arizona

10* Under Bulls/Sixers (7:05 ET): Chicago picked up a win it really “needed” to have on Wednesday, beating Washington 115-106 as a 3.5-point home favorite. The Bulls are now 15-27 SU on the year but by no means out of playoff contention, despite losing 7 of the last 10 games. They are just four back of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. But they are banged up right now with multiple players injured including Otto Porter and Wendell Carter Jr. Friday looks like a tough assignment at Philadelphia, who is 19-2 SU at home.

The Sixers have one of the sharpest home vs. road splits in the league right now. They are only 7-14 SU away from home and that’s why they’re not any higher in the Eastern Conference standings. They did beat Brooklyn here at home Wednesday night, 117-106 as a 7-point favorite. Joel Embiid remains out indefinitely, so they are short-handed right now as well. Before the win over the Nets (where they shot 51.1%), the Sixers had lost six of eight (all six losses on the road) and had even been held under 100 points four times. 

Philly, as you might expect, is a lot better defensively when at home. They give up just 102.1 PPG here, which is one of the better averages in the league. Some of that is certainly due to Embiid, but even without their All Star center, they still just held the Nets (with Kyrie) to 106 pts. Three of the Sixers last four opponents have not shot well. At the same time, they are 9-5 Under after scoring 115+ points. This O/U line exceeds what both teams’ games are averaging for the season. 10* Under Bulls/Sixers

10* St. Louis (7:00 ET): Conference play isn’t even a month old, but across the country most teams have already experienced a loss. But in the Atlantic 10, there are still three unbeatens left, one of them the clear class of the league and that’s #13 Dayton, who is in action here. The Flyers were lucky in that leading scorer Obi Toppin’s ankle injury wasn’t as serious as originally thought. As a result, they had little difficulty defeating preseason favorite VCU on Tuesday. But that was also home. Friday, they hit the road to face a dangerous St. Louis team. 

St. Louis comes in riding a three-game win streak. They have not played since Saturday when they went to Richmond and picked up a nice 74-58 road win as 5.5-point underdogs. Having had the extra time off is surely an advantage heading into what will be the biggest home game of the entire conference slate. The Billikens suffered their only A-10 loss on the road, to also undefeated Duquesne, but are a strong 10-1 SU at home with the lone loss coming to a very good Seton Hall team. They won the only other time they were a home dog this season, that coming against Belmont right before Thanksgiving. 

I know what kind of season Toppin is having, but SLU also has a pair of standouts with Goodwin and French being the ONLY teammates nationally to both be averaging a double-double. The duo combines for 29 points and 20.5 rebounds per game. The Billikens are also a strong defensive team, which is needed to beat what has been a very efficient Dayton offense. This figures to be one of Dayton’s toughest remaining games and it’s a lot of points to lay on the road. St. Louis is already 5-2 ATS as a dog with four outright wins. Take the points. 10* St. Louis

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): Coming off a 100-86 win over Charlotte last night, Denver finds itself playing the second night of a back to back here. Compounding that issue is the fact the Nuggets enter short-handed. We already know that Jamal Murray won’t play. He was already dealing with a back issue when he was taken off the court last night because of an injured ankle. Gary Harris and Paul Milsap, two other starters, also didn’t play last night and the coaching staff seems in no rush to get them back on the court. 

Now Golden State obviously has its own set of problems to deal with, namely a nine-game losing streak and their own bevy of injuries. But at least they are rested coming into tonight. They certainly played poorly here at home vs. Dallas on Tuesday, but I don’t believe the Nuggets are good as the Mavericks (despite what the standings may say). Three of Golden State’s last four losses have come to teams I have ranked in the top six in the league. 

Back to back’s have been tricky for Denver as they are just 1-5 ATS in them this season. This one, where they’re likely to be quite short-handed, looks like a real tough spot. Despite being 28-12 SU on the year, the Nuggets are overrated in my book. Despite being tied for the second best record in the Western Conference, their net efficiency rating of +2.8 is only 12th in the league. They have overachieved, just like last year. Take the points in this one. 10* Golden State

6* Vegas (7:35 ET): The Golden Knights just fired the only coach they’d ever known, Gerard Gallant, midway through their third season of existence. Of course, Gallant led the franchise all the way to the Stanley Cup Final back in its expansion year. But this year the club wasn’t playing up to its potential. Tuesday’s 4-2 home loss to Buffalo gives Vegas its second four-game losing streak of 2019-20. Peter DeBoer, recently fired by rival San Jose, takes over behind the bench and will look to right this ship. 

Fortunately for DeBoer, his first game is against a team that’s on a losing streak twice as long as the Golden Knights! Ottawa has dropped eight in a row as they continue to languish well beyond the pack in the Eastern Conference. The Senators have just 40 points this year, second fewest in the East and third fewest in the entire league. Vegas might be on a losing streak, but they are in much better position over in the West with 54 points. Ottawa hasn’t scored more than three goals in any of their eight straight losses.

Vegas is 4-1 SU all-time vs. Ottawa including a 3-2 win back in November. Yes, four of the Senators’ eight straight losses have come after regulation and they led Chicago 2-0 on Tuesday. But after the coaching change, you can bet the Golden Knights are going to come out highly motivated. They are a good team in a slump. Ottawa is simply bad. 6* Vegas

10* Delaware (7:00 ET): Delaware is going to be happy to be back at home Thursday night after playing three straight on the road. They lost two of those three games including 84-68 at Towson on Saturday. That leaves the Blue Hens at 2-3 SU in CAA play, but again this one is all about the return home. Delaware is 7-1 SU in Newark where it averages over 77 PPG. The Blue Hens have certainly been priced like a contender in this conference as tonight is the fifth time in six games they’ll go off as the favorite. 

William & Mary, infamously, is one of four original D-I schools to have never made the NCAA Tournament. They’re looking to change that in 2020 as they come into tonight as the lone unbeaten team in Colonial play. The Tribe have opened conference play with five straight wins, two of those by two points or less. Defense has been very key with W&M holding conference opponents to 63.4 PPG on 39.4% shooting. That’s an improvement from non-conference play when opponents averaged 72 PPG against the Tribe. 

Look for Delaware to break the streak of poor shooting William & Mary opponents. I already went over their scoring average here at home and the Blue Hens are also a strong shooting team. They also play good defense at home, holding the opposition to 64.7 PPG on 38.4% shooting. Since starting the year 9-0, the Blue Hens are just 3-6, but they’ve lost to Villanova and an OT game. William & Mary is the hot team now, but can easily “cool off” just like Delaware did. They’re not running the table in conference play. 10* Delaware

7* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues keep chugging along. I think it’s important to remember that while this club went on to win the Stanley Cup, at this point last year, they were near the very bottom of the league in points. The incredible finish to the season that they had has clearly carried over as they lead the Central Division with 67 points and have won four in a row. I like their chances tonight at home vs. the Flyers.

Philadelphia is off a very lucky win as they rallied back to beat Boston in a shootout after trailing. The game ended with one of the more embarrassing gaffes that you’ll ever see. Before that come from behind victory, the Flyers had lost five of six. Their last four road games have all ended in defeat and they are being outscored by a full goal per game on the road this year. St. Louis is +1.0 goals per game for the year at home. 

Philly is very much a fringe playoff team in the Eastern Conference while St. Louis is the class of the Western Conference right now. There’s little to suggest that the Flyers can win this game as the Blues have suffered only four regulation defeats in the Gateway City all season long. The Blues are 15-5 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals in their last game and they are off a 4-1 win against Anahiem. 7* St. Louis

10* Missouri State (8:00 ET): I would certainly say that it “speaks volumes” that Missouri State is favored here, even though the game is at home. The Bears are coming off a terrible 23-point loss to Northern Iowa here in Springfield and just 8-9 SU on the season. Bradley comes in at 12-5 SU and has covered five in a row, the last four coming in conference play. Oddsmakers have set a trap here and I’m not falling for it. Lay the short number with the home team. 

Let’s look at the home court advantage for a bit, shall we? Before losing to Northern Iowa, who leads the MVC, Missouri State had been 6-1 SU on this floor. Even after giving up 80 pts to the Panthers on Saturday, they are still only allowing 60.7 PPG here for the season. Bradley has won just 4 of its last 22 trips to Springfield and was held to 37 points in an embarrassing loss here LY. The Braves had been 0-4 SU in “true” road games before beating Evansville last week (were favored to do so).

Bradley has gotten to take on some of the weaker teams in the Missouri Valley so far, which helps explain the ATS win streak. The one exception was when they had to face Northern Iowa on the road and sure enough they lost that game. Missouri State has lost only once as a favorite (in eight tries) all season. 10* Missouri State

10* Miami (7:35 ET): The Heat have lost two straight, both as favorites, but those games were played on the road. Now they return home - where they are 17-1 SU on the season - and laying a short number to a San Antonio team that is still below .500 and playing its fourth consecutive road game. There looks to be some value here as my raw numbers indicate that the spread should be closer -7.5. The Spurs still have major issues defensively and I’m going to lay the points here.

Now it’s obvious that the Heat’s last loss was a total embarrassment. They lost 124-121 to the lowly Knicks, a game they were favored to win by 7.5 points. It was a shocking defeat in the sense that Miami was up 10 going into the 4Q. Usually a good defensive team, they allowed 40 pts in the final 12 minutes. The Heat shot a much higher percentage from three-point range, so really it’s a game they “should have” won. The same could be said for the three-point loss in Brooklyn that preceded it. They’ve actually shot 51% or better in four straight games.

Again, the Heat are 17-1 SU at home. That’s the best home win percentage in the league. This is the first time all season that they’ve been off B2B losses. I look for the string of strong offensive efforts to continue as San Antonio is allowing 116.2 PPG on the road. Miami is actually outscoring its visitors by an average of 11.7 PPG, which is very impressive. San Antonio did just win at Toronto, but was down 13 points after three quarters. They haven’t won two straight on the road all year. 10* Miami

10* Under Kentucky/South Carolina (6:30 ET): Kentucky, still my pick to win the SEC, seemed to have the faithful in Lexington in a bit worried when they lost back to back games to Utah and Ohio State right before the New Year. But John Calipari’s Wildcats have responded with four straight wins where their scoring has been remarkably consistent (between 71 and 78 points) and all four wins have been by at least eight points. They’ve moved up to #10 in the polls and tonight take on a South Carolina team trending in a very different direction. 

The Gamecocks have lost three straight games coming into tonight. This streak started with a humiliating upset here in Columbia as they lost 63-56 as a 22.5-point favorite to Stetson. Since then, it’s an 0-2 start in the SEC with losses to Florida and at Tennessee. They covered Saturday in Knoxville, losing by only one point, but could only manage 55 points. There have been a number of games this season when South Carolina’s offense seemingly “failed to show up.” They’ve shot just 35.5% in SEC play. 

It’s highly unlikely that the Gamecocks figure it out offensively in this game. Kentucky is strong defensively as they allow only 62.5 points/game. In the only meeting last year, they held South Carolina to 48 points. But the key here will be that UK’s own offense won’t be up to par. This is a rare “true” road game for the Wildcats, just their second all year. Four of South Carolina’s last five opponents have failed to exceed 63 points and for the year, opponents are shooting just 37.9%! Sounds like an Under to me! 10* Under Kentucky/South Carolina

10* Colorado (9:05 ET): I’m on the record as being a “believer” in the Avalanche. But they need to start winning some games. Three straight losses have dropped them to third in the Central Division, 10 points behind first place St. Louis (entering play on Monday). But Tuesday night is an opportunity to move back into second place as they host the team that’s just one point ahead, that being Dallas. I sense the Avs will be in full on “desperation mode” here and will back them in this spot. 

The reason I continue to be so optimistic about Colorado’s future has to do with their goal differential. It’s consistently been one of the best in the entire Western Conference. Currently, even with the three-game losing streak, their +28 GD is the best in the West (note: this is being written before the completion of St. Louis’ game Monday night). I’ve long been a believer that scoring differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team’s current won-loss record. The Avs will have had three days off since losing in OT to Pittsburgh.

Dallas saw a six-game win streak end Saturday in San Jose. That was a bit of a shocker considering where the Sharks have been in the standings most of the year. Then again, the schedule may be catching up with the Stars. Tonight is the end of four-game trip for them. Colorado will be even more motivated here by the fact they are 0-3 vs. the Stars this year. I’ve got them as the better overall club, so this is a good line we’re getting and the Avs are 5-2 SU the L7x playing with three or more days rest. 10* Colorado 

10* Houston (8:30 ET): Is Memphis for real? The Grizzlies have won five straight games and now occupy the “coveted” 8th spot in the Western Conference standings. That spot is going to be up for grabs the rest of the way and I’m unconvinced the Grizz end up in it. This win streak can be chalked up to a favorable schedule that has seen them play the last three games all as home chalk. Offense has definitely been on the rise, but tonight it’s a matchup with the team that is tied for the highest scoring average in the league. The win streak ends here and you should lay the points. 

Houston just put up 139 points on Saturday, beating Minnesota in what was a nice bounce back from a bad loss at Oklahoma City. That loss to OKC, which came in the second night of a back to back, is the only time the Rockets have been beaten over the L5 games. A win here could have them in second place in the West by night’s end. Earlier in the year, the Rockets came to Memphis and covered as six-point favorites thanks to a massive edge in three-point shooting. 

The Grizzlies are just 7-12 SU vs. teams that have winning records this year. They have only two such wins over the past month. This is pretty clearly the best they’ve played all year. Because of that we’re able to get a good price on Houston, who is 6-1 ATS when taking the court this season on exactly two days rest. As good as Memphis has been at the offensive end recently, Houston is more consistent at that end and let’s not discount that the Grizzlies are 27th overall in PPG allowed. 10* Houston

10* VCU (8:00 ET): #13 Dayton is 14-2 SU with its two losses (Kansas, Colorado) both coming in overtime. Being unbeaten in regulation is quite the claim to be able to make at this point of the season. The Flyers are very much a legit threat on a national level as they are #6 in the KenPom rankings and I’ve got them #9 in my own power ratings. But if there is one concern I have, it’s that they are only 43rd in defensive efficiency. Tonight, they are playing the only A-10 team that’s higher in that important metric and that could mean upset. Take the points. 

Certainly you’re familiar with the brand of basketball VCU likes to play. The full court pressure, termed “Havoc” by former HC Shaka Smart, is once again yielding solid results as the Rams are giving up only 60.9 PPG on the year. But it hasn’t translated at the betting window as VCU is an ugly 4-12 ATS on the year and just lost outright at home to Rhode Island Saturday, 65-56 as 8.5-pt chalk. But offense was the problem in that game as the Rams shot a woeful 31.3% overall. They'll absolutely shoot better tonight. 

Dayton is undefeated at home (9-0), but this is going to be a test. The Flyers do rank #3 nationally in offensive efficiency, but they also haven’t faced a good team since the loss to Colorado. Compounding matters, leading scorer Obi Toppin sprained his ankle in Saturday’s win over UMass and likely will miss tonight’s game. Even if Toppin can go, the play stands. Against a team that plays defense like this, not having your leading scorer at 100 percent is hardly ideal. 10* VCU

8* Boston (7:05 ET): Essentially, the Bruins have spent the balance of the year in first place in the Atlantic Division. They’ve got 66 points, one less than Washington and St. Louis, who have the most in the league and their goal differential of +34 is a league best. But with reigning President’s Trophy winners Tampa Bay hot on their heels, they cannot afford any kind of letdown. They’d won three in a row before last night’s loss, which came in a shootout, at Philadelphia. But goal scoring certainly hasn’t been an issue with 19 in the past four games.

Columbus is sixth in the Metro, not exactly an ideal place to be. Last night’s loss by the Bruins actually hurt the Blue Jackets as it allowed the Flyers to go up two points on them for what would be the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The Blue Jackets are coming off a 3-1 road trip that ended with a 3-0 shutout of Vegas. But this club isn’t anything more than mediocre in my eyes. They’ve given up three more goals than they’ve scored themselves this year.

A win here would give Boston the most points in the league. But what’s crazy is that they should have even more points, if not for some poor luck. Last night’s loss dropped them to 0-7 in shootouts and their 12 losses beyond regulation are - by far - a league high. The way that last night’s game ended was very painful. It was a game they led 5-2 in the second period and “should have” won. They get it done here. 8* Boston

8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Orlando has played well over its last six games, winning four (SU) and covering five. But they are off a 98-94 loss at Phoenix. As is obvious from the final score, offense was an issue Saturday night for the Magic. That’s something that has plagued them all season as they come into tonight ranked dead last in the league in points per game with 103.5. Because of the fact their defensive numbers slip on the road, I’m fading them here. 

The Kings are also off a loss, but considering they faced Milwaukee their last time out, what else would you expect? The Kings gave up 127 points, but that was to the highest scoring team in the league. They actually led in the third quarter. Interestingly enough, Sacramento also just won at Phoenix (114-103), something that Orlando just failed to do, so that’s a mark in their favor. The Kings had won three of four going into the Milwaukee game, the lone loss coming by 2 pts. 

Sacramento has won and covered all four meetings with Orlando the past two seasons. I expect them to simply “outscore” the Magic in this one. While the Magic have been able to hold three straight opponents below 100 pts, that’s happened to the Kings only two times since Dec 4. Both teams are banged up right now, but Sacramento needs this one more as they are struggling to remain relevant in the Western Conference. 8* Sacramento

10* Clemson (8:00 ET): Not prejudiced at all by what happened with my Bowl Game of the Year on Ohio State, which lost despite the Buckeyes outgaining Clemson 516-417. If anything, I GAINED more respect for the Tigers, who have now won 29 straight games and are 6-2 SU all-time in the CFP. This program is now set to appear in the Championship Game for the 4th time in 5 seasons and is seeking its 3rd title in the last 4 seasons. Looking back to last year’s Title Game, I now feel like a bit of a “broken record” as I can’t believe I’m getting so many points with a team that has this kind of resume. Clemson can win this game. Take the points.

LSU obviously had no difficulty in the Peach Bowl, annihilating Oklahoma by a score of 63-28. QB Burrow threw for SEVEN TD passes in the 1H alone as the game was never in doubt. But it must be pointed out that there was a severe dropoff between the top three teams in CFP and Oklahoma. No one expected the Sooners to win once, let alone twice. Meanwhile, Clemson just beat the team many (myself included) considered the best team in the country most of this year. 

The big reason I faded Clemson in the Orange Bowl was I did not believe they should have been the favorite. But now they’re an underdog and I see plenty of value. Going back to the 2015 Title Game, Clemson has been a dog just six times. They are 5-1 ATS with four outright wins. All but one of those games were in the CFP. Those who think LSU is going to move the ball up and down the field against what is still the country’s top scoring defense (11.5 PPG allowed) are sorely mistaken. On the flip side, I expect more points from the Clemson offense here as they are freed from the poor field conditions at the Orange Bowl. The Tigers had the nation’s best scoring differential in the regular season and are 11-3 ATS. 10* Clemson

9* Washington (7:05 ET): The way things are going now, this could end up as a 1st round playoff matchup. That’s something the first place Capitals may want to avoid as the fourth place Hurricanes come in on a three-game win streak and off B2B shutouts. Lucky for the Caps, the playoffs are still three months away. But they’ve lost two in a row, the last one being a 5-1 shocker at the hands of last place New Jersey. I’m banking on the home team being motivated tonight. 

Another reason the Caps would want to avoid the Canes as a potential 1st round playoff opponent is that they’ve already lost twice to them this season. But they also won in Carolina last week. Interestingly enough, they were also coming off B2B losses going into that game. Even after being held to just three goals total in the last two games, Washington still ranks 3rd in the league in goals scored this year and averages 3.5 per game. 

While Carolina has won three straight and five of seven, every win has been at home. In fact, they haven’t even played a road game since December 27th. Their last road win was December 19th in Colorado. With the last seven games all being played on home ice, I’m not the least bit surprised the Hurricanes come into tonight streaking in a positive direction. But can that be sustained on the road against one of the league’s top teams? Not likely! 9* Washington

10* Arizona (10:00 ET): Oregon State has definitely improved. But they are not yet deserving of this price range, even at home, against the class of the Pac 12. While these teams have matching 11-4 SU records, not all records are created equally. Three of Arizona’s losses have been to top 10 teams. All four have been by five points or less. While they are in danger of falling out of the polls, I very much consider the Wildcats to be a top 10 caliber team. I certainly don’t see them losing another game and will lay this short number tonight.

All four Arizona losses have come in their last six games. Similarly, three of Oregon State’s four losses this year have been in their last five games. The Beavers have lost to some quality teams, but none of them were the same caliber of the teams that have beaten Arizona. Something else worth noting is they lost here at home Thursday to an Arizona State team that Arizona beat by 28. So that’s another reason not to judge these identical records the same. OSU has lost 36 of the last 44 times they’ve faced Arizona. 

Thursday in Eugene, Arizona led Oregon by six points with two minutes left in regulation. They failed to protect the lead and lost in overtime. So they should be in an ornery mood here. Two of their other losses were to Baylor and Gonzaga, both of whom will be in the top three of next week’s rankings. Arizona is better at both ends of the floor than Oregon State, especially defensively. The Beavers don’t even rank in the top 100 nationally in defensive efficiency. 10* Arizona

10* Over Seahawks/Packers (6:40 ET): All four Wild Card games were low-scoring and stayed Under the total. But the final Divisional Round matchup of the weekend figures to see some “fireworks” as arguably the two most overachieving teams in the NFL collide at Lambeau Field. Seattle, who beat Philadelphia 17-9 last weekend, is now 12-5 straight up. But they have just one win all year by more than eight points. Green Bay went 13-3 SU in the regular season, thus earning a bye, but they only outscored their opponents by 63 points and were 7-1 SU in one-score games. 

So I won’t dare make a play on the side here. But the total and how it’s been bet has caught my eye. While the win in Philly was ugly, Seattle did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last Sunday. That’s a strong average and I’m not sure the Packers defense is much better than the Eagles. Some traditional measures, like points allowed, might make it seem like they are. But Green Bay gave up more yards on a per play and per game basis. It’s been awhile since the Packers defense faced a QB anywhere near as dynamic as Russell Wilson.

The Packers’ ended the regular season on a 7-1 Under run including 4-0 L4. But again, the offenses they went against were not the best. The only three playoff teams they faced that weren’t Minnesota all scored at least 24 points on them. And one of the Minnesota games saw the Vikings gain over 7.0 YPP. The other they were without RB Dalvin Cook. Seattle’s defense isn’t that great either (allows 375 YPG, 6.1 YPP) and will be facing Aaron Rodgers, not Josh McCown. Rodgers has had a “down” year, but I look for him to play well here. 10* Over Seahawks/Packers

10* Arizona (6:05 ET): You can’t win if you don’t score. That adage applies to any sport and in the case of the NHL’s Coyotes, they’ve now been shut out in B2B games. It was a 4-0 loss to Tampa Bay, followed by a 3-0 loss to Carolina. Tonight the ‘Yotes will face another team from the Metro, but there’s a major difference in that this one is at home. Both shutout losses were on the road. Pittsburgh being the team that’s coming into visit tonight seems a bit scary, but this will be the Penguins third straight road game.

Prior to being outscored 7-0 in its last two games, Arizona had no problems scoring. In fact, they were on a four-game win streak that produced 18 goals. Three of the wins came here on home ice, one of which was against reigning Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis. So the Coyotes have shown they can beat the “big boys.” As good as Pittsburgh has looked recently, the last three wins have all been by one goal and two of those required overtime. The Pens have been outshot over their last five games.

Home ice advantage should be the difference in this one. Arizona getting blanked in B2B games happened at the end of a road trip, on consecutive nights no less. Pittsburgh now finds itself at the end of a road trip. Arizona has watched as an inferior Calgary team has passed them for 1st place in the Pacific, so expect them to come out very motivated. There are rumblings of a Sidney Crosby return for the Penguins coming soon, possibly as early as tonight, but it’ll take some time for him to be a factor on the ice. 10* Arizona

10* Under Spurs/Raptors (6:05 ET): San Antonio had been playing a lot better of late, including big wins over both Milwaukee and Boston. But the key word in that last sentence is “had.” Friday’s loss in Memphis saw Greg Popovich’s team give up 134 points. This is simply not the same strong defensive team we’re used to seeing under Popovich as they let the Grizzlies shoot 52% for the game. But considering they held Milwaukee and Boston below 42%, the Spurs are still capable of playing some good defense. 

The Spurs are 13-4 Over their last 17 games including 4-0 the L4. But we know they can’t possibly be any worse at the defensive end than they were in Memphis. In the same vein, Toronto’s last game should not have gone Over, but they went to OT in Charlotte and that resulted in a 112-110 final score. The Raptors will take the win, but Under bettors had to be salty about losing a game that was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation. Toronto has now held its last seven opponents to 102 pts or less in regulation, so they aren’t having the kind of defensive issues the Spurs have been experiencing of late. 

The big story coming into tonight’s game is that there is a chance that some of Toronto’s injured starters could be returning. Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Norman Powell were all injured in a December 18th win over Detroit. Those absences obviously haven’t hurt the Raptors defensively. Of the trio, Powell is the most likely to return tonight. He’s the least important on the offensive end. Even if Gasol or Siakam is able to play here, I wouldn’t expect a ton of points. Toronto doesn’t give up many points and San Antonio is “due” for a low-scoring game. 10* Under Spurs/Raptors

9* Chicago (8:35 ET): I played against the Blackhawks their last time out as they lost 5-2 to Nashville. Falling behind 3-0 in the first period was a killer for them, though they were able to climb back to within a goal in the third. But allowing Predators goalie Pekka Rinne to score an empty-net goal was the nail in the coffin as Chicago lost for the third time in its last four games and second straight at home. But Saturday I’m throwing my support behind them as they should pick up two points. 

Why the sudden change? Well, it helps that they’re hosting Anaheim, a team that just isn’t very good. The Ducks are in last place in the Western Conference with only 39 points. They’ve lost five of six and just got shutout, at home, 3-0 by Dallas. Lack of scoring has been a long-term issue. Aside from a recent 5-4 win (over Nashville ironically), the Ducks have scored two goals or less in seven of their last eight games. Overall, they are the second lowest scoring team in the sport, ahead of only lowly Detroit. 

The other end of the ice hasn’t been that kind either. The Ducks are giving up 3.6 goals per game on the road and 4.0 gpg the L5 overall. So look for a Chicago team that has found the back of the net pretty regularly over the last month to continue to do so tonight. I can’t see a third straight loss at home. Chicago won in overtime at Anaheim back in November. The Ducks’ lone All-Star, Jakob Silfverberg, has missed the last game and could be out again. 9* Chicago

10* Wyoming (7:00 ET): Second home game in four nights for the Cowboys, who just hosted undefeated San Diego State on Wednesday. Predictably, the Pokes came out on the short end of that one, although it ended up being slightly more lopsided than I had anticipated. I took Wyoming +17.5 and they lost by 20. Laramie remains a tough place to play though (because of the elevation) and you should look for the home team to play a lot better Saturday when they host UNLV. Take the points.

UNLV also comes in off a loss, theirs to Boise State by seven. They lost 73-66 as 5.5-point road underdogs. That loss snapped a four-game win streak, the entirety of which came in Vegas. The Rebels haven’t been too good away from home this year, losing five of six games and they’ve been outscored by double digits. Thus I wouldn’t be too confident laying points with this team here, especially with their starting point guard still injured. 

Wyoming has lost three in a row to fall to 5-12 SU. It’s been nearly two months since they were favored to win a game. They've lost three straight overall and certainly don’t want to lose two in a row at home. This is a desperate team right now. There are issues offensively, but it’s not like UNLV can score all that much either. This Saturday night game in the Mountain West has all the makings of a low-scoring slugfest where you'll want to be getting points. 10* Wyoming

10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Despite needing OT to get the ‘W’, I thought the Vikings looked very impressive in their Wild Card triumph in New Orleans. Not that it was unexpected on this end. I made the following statements in my analysis of the game. “I think we’re getting a great number here…. People REALLY seem to be underrating the Vikings.” Sure enough, they pulled the outright upset in a VERY tough place to win. Six seeds have not done well in the Divisional Rd recently (0-8 SU L8 years), but I actually had Minnesota rated as the 3rd best NFC team coming into these playoffs. Take the points. 

Before the season, San Francisco was my choice to be the most improved team in the league. Sure enough, they made the huge jump from 4-12 to 13-3 SU. But now they must deal with the weight of expectations and this is a roster with little in the way of postseason experience. Also, the 49ers have not done well as a favorite of six points or more. They are a money-burning 1-12-1 ATS in that role since 2014, including 0-6-1 ATS this season. Four of Minnesota’s six losses this year were by seven points or fewer. The last five games of the 49ers’ regular season were all decided in the final 10 seconds. 

Coming off the bye, the 49ers’ defense is as healthy as it’s been in awhile. But let’s not undercut what Minnesota’s defense is capable of as it just held the Saints to 324 total yards and 100 of that was from Taysom Hill. Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo, making his 1st ever playoff start here, played the worst game of his career against Mike Zimmer’s defense. It was last year and he threw three interceptions in a 24-16 loss. The last nine quarterbacks to make their first playoff start have combined to go 2-7 ATS. For the Vikings, I’m not as concerned with WR Adam Thielen’s status now that RB Dalvin Cook is back. As you saw last week, this offense is a lot better with a healthy Cook (missed last two regular season games). 10* Minnesota

8* Drexel (4:00 ET): While I don’t see either of these teams competing for a CAA Championship, I am seeing some value with the team getting points in this Saturday matchup. It’s actually a fade on the favorite, James Madison, a team I don’t approve of laying points in most circumstances. The Dukes, losers of four of five, won the last two times they’ve been chalk. But the last cover, at UNC Wilmington, was by a single point. Three of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by two points. 

Drexel did not have a good showing Thursday at Towson. They lost 89-73. Full disclosure - I was the Dragons that night. What I did not anticipate was them allowing Towson to shoot a blistering 56.9% from the floor. Drexel had won its two previous games, admittedly both at home, by allowing just 55 and 66 points. The good news is that they are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts in the last game.

James Madison is now 1-4 SU in conference play after an 80-76  loss to Delaware Thursday night. That was a home game and the Dukes did lead at halftime. They were still up in the final minute, which is when they allowed a GW three-pointer. The loss dropped JMU to 1-7 ATS this year vs. winning teams. Drexel has a 9-8 SU record. I have the Dragons rated as the slightly better team, so I’ll take the points. 8* Drexel

10* Providence (9:00 ET): It’s always tricky laying points on the road, even when you’re a top 10 team like Butler that’s 14-1 SU. But while the Bulldogs are my pick to win the Big East this year, I do feel they are currently a bit overrated at #6 in the polls. This is a tricky spot Friday night at Providence as the Friars have won four straight, all against good teams. Providence won all three games against Butler LY and is 11-3 ATS the L14 meetings (5-1 here at home). Take the points. 

Those last four Providence victories have come against Texas, Georgetown, DePaul and Marquette. The last two were both by one point but also were both road games. Now they get to come back home where they’ve won seven of eight this season, the only loss coming against Penn during what was a late November swoon. Texas lost by 22 here while Georgetown lost by 16. With four wins by four points or less, it may “feel” like Providence is overachieving, but the reality is that this is just the fourth game they’ve been an underdog.

Butler’s only loss was by one point (53-52 at Baylor) and they are 4th nationally in points per game allowed. However, they’ve had a recent close call as well, winning by only two at St. John’s. Providence’s defense improves exponentially here at home as they give up just 59.6 PPG. Butler has gotten a bit lucky with their last two opponents (SJU, Creighton) both shooting very poorly from three-point range. Providence shoots 39.2% at home from behind the arc. 10* Providence

10* Under Hornets/Jazz (9:05 ET): Charlotte plays at the slowest pace in the entire league, meaning their games average the fewest number of possessions. Theoretically, that should make them an “Under team,” but lately that has NOT been the case with their last four games all going Over the total. But tonight’s trip to Utah should put an end to that streak as the Jazz are a really solid defensive team, especially when they are playing at home. Take the Under.

Early on in the season, Utah looked like a disappointment. Not anymore. They’ve gone 12-1 SU since December 11th and are a perfect 7-0 since X-Mas. This was a team I felt was primed to finish in the top four in the Western Conference this year (along with the Lakers, Clippers and Rockets). Other than a wild 128-126 win over defensively inept New Orleans on Monday, the Jazz have held each of their previous five opponents to 104 pts or less. Three of them were held below 100.

Charlotte’s last game (vs Toronto) should not have gone Over, but did because of overtime. That was a 100-100 game at the end of regulation, which would make it three times in the last five games they’ve failed to top 104 points in regulation. So much for being an “Over team.” Advanced metrics hate this Hornets team as they’ve been outscored by one of the five largest margins in the league this year. They only average 104.6 PPG on the road. 10* Under Hornets/Jazz

10* Detroit (7:35 ET): Honestly, this might be the only time all year I take the Red Wings. They are at home and playing who I have ranked as the second worst team in the league (Detroit is obviously the worst). The opponent is Ottawa, a club that is 0-5 its last five games. While the Red Wings have been really bad this year, you can’t deny they’ve been playing better lately. They’ve won twice in the last four games including 4-3 over Montreal on Tuesday. 

The Senators have had major issues defensively during the current losing streak. They’ve allowed a total of 26 goals in the L5 games, giving up at least four every time out. Their most recent game, which was Tuesday, was the most lopsided of the bunch. They lost 6-1 at Washington, which hardly qualifies as a surprise as the Sens entered the game as +250 underdogs on the money line. Still though, it’s virtually impossible to want to take this team right now considering how they’ve been playing. 

The win over Montreal on Tuesday marked the third time this season the Red Wings have beaten the Habs. They have just 11 wins overall. An 0-2 record vs. Ottawa is what they are out to avenge tonight and I like their chances as both of the Red Wings’ recent victories were here on home ice. Ottawa’s last road win came all the way back on December 4th! They are just 5-15-3 SU on the road this year and giving up 3.9 goals per game. 10* Detroit

8* St. Mary's (11:00 ET): As per usual, Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference this year. And as per usual, these two schools are battling it out to determine who's second best. BYU comes in riding a six-game win streak and most of those wins have been VERY convincing. Saturday's 63-38 win over Loyola Marymount was the 4th time during the win streak that they prevailed by at least 25 points. Impressive as that streak is, none of the wins have come in "true" road games. 

St. Mary's is off a very different result here. They were upset, on the road, by Pacific 107-99 as 8.5-pt chalk. As you might have guessed from that final score, it was not a 40 minute game. In fact, it went to FOUR overtimes. Tough loss for the Gaels, who not only had their own five-game win streak snapped, but also blew an eight-point lead with 4:28 to go in regulation. Prior to that, SMU's only two losses were to Dayton (top 15 team) and to Winthrop (by two). I have them bouncing back tonight. 

These WCC rivals do seem fairly even on paper, but I have to go back to BYU's lack of "true" road games. They've played only three and lost two. The only win was by a single point. St. Mary's is 7-1 SU at home, outscoring their opponents by 14.1 PPG. Last year in this building, they destroyed BYU by 22 points. Neither team shot well their last game. Back in their own gym, St. Mary's is the more likely of the two to bounce back in that department. This is a team that's won 22 of its last 28 games overall. 8* St. Mary's