8* Cincinnati (3:30 ET): I thought that the SEC Championship Game was the ultimate “buy low” spot on Nick Saban as Alabama was not just a 6.5-point underdog to Georgia, but was also seemingly being written off by just about everybody. So I hopped on board, taking the points, and the Crimson Tide ended up turning in one of the more impressive performances of the entire College Football season by beating the top-ranked ‘Dawgs 41-24. After a win like that, Bama is pretty popular again and has been installed as double digit favorites for their CFP semifinal vs. Cincinnati. It’s too many points. 

I get that the Crimson Tide looked incredible vs. Georgia while Cincinnati is the first non-Power 5 team to ever make the CFP. But the Bearcats are legit. They are certainly better than the Notre Dame team Alabama faced in LY’s CFP semifinal. That game saw Bama fail to cover, for the record. Cincy absolutely deserves to be here as the lone 12-0 team in the country. They went to South Bend and handled Notre Dame pretty easily. Do I think the Bearcats will win on New Year’s Eve? No. But this is the biggest game in program history and they aren't about to get blown out. Non-P5 teams have been very competitive in NY6 Bowl Games in years’ past. My own power ratings say this should be a single-digit spread. 

Led by Heisman Trophy winning QB Bryce Young, Alabama does average 42.5 PPG. Not even Georgia’s top-ranked defense could slow them down. But the Crimson Tide did lose WR John Metchie to a knee injury in the SEC Championship, which will hurt. Cincinnati has the second best pass defense in the country and has 18 interceptions. I think they can slow down this Alabama offense, at least by enough to stay within the spread. Then you have the Bearcats’ offense, which averages 39.2 PPG. Let’s not forget that Alabama’s defense has not been great in 2021. It allowed 41 pts in the loss to A&M.  The Tide had four close wins this year, against Auburn, Arkansas, LSU and Florida, none of whom are as good as Cincinnati. I’m taking the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* William & Mary (2:00 ET): William & Mary is one of four College Basketball programs that’s been eligible for every NCAA Tournament and never gotten in. That’s pretty embarrassing. But I’m not sure it’s more embarrassing than how the Tribe started their 2021-22 season. Not only did they lose their first 12 games, they were also 0-12 ATS. But W&M finally picked up a win on Wednesday, stunning Hofstra 63-62 as 17.5-point home underdogs. I think they’re in line to cover another game here on New Year’s Eve. 

Northeastern enters this game off back to back losses. Those two defeats were sandwiched around a pair of cancellations as the Huskies fell 79-69 to Davidson and 79-62 at Elon. The loss to Elon was particularly embarrassing as N’eastern came into that game favored by three points. They are now 0-4 SU in “true” road games this season with three of the four losses coming by 17 points or more. Williamsburg is not a place where the Huskies have performed well in the past; they’ve lost 10 of their last 13 trips here.

I know that William & Mary has endured a brutal start to the season, but given how untrustworthy Northeastern has been away from home thus far, you’ve got to take the points in this one. William & Mary’s ATS record is so poor that you have to think a turnaround is coming at the betting window. It’s the law of averages. The win on Wednesday, where the Tribe held Hofstra to 30.2% shooting, should inspire some much-needed confidence. Northeastern has only three wins by more than six points, so this game should come down to the wire. Take the points. 10* William & Mary

10* Oregon State (9:00 ET): This line will most definitely be viewed as “curious” by most as you’ve got a 2-10 Oregon State team as a short home dog, facing Utah. The Beavers’ only two wins came in their first - and most recent - games. The most recent win was nine days ago against Nicholls State, 83-61 as a nine-point favorite. I think it would be rather foolish to write this team off as it was only nine months ago that OSU made its incredible run to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. They’ve also beaten Utah four straight times. 

Utah concluded the non-conference portion of its schedule with a 55-50 win over Fresno State nine days ago. The Utes are now 8-4 straight up, but only 4-7-1 ATS. They’ve played just two “true” road games so far and lost them both, 93-73 at USC and 83-75 at Missouri. While Oregon State may not be as formidable as either of those two teams, it is notable that Utah has suffered three double digits on the season. In the two previous conference games, the Utes shot just 38.0% from the field. They’ve been short-handed of late, though leading scorer Branden Carlson could return here. 

Oregon State has three losses by three points or less this season, so factor that in when looking at their overall record. The Beavers should be “pumped up” for this game in Corvallis as conference play certainly affords them a “fresh start” to the season. Utah is only 6-18 ATS its L24 games away from home and they’ve lost by an average of 18.5 PPG their previous two trips here. The Utes are 4-10 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 60 points or less the previous game, including 1-3 ATS this season alone. 10* Oregon State

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Both the 76ers and Nets are getting closer to full strength and it’s showing in the results. Brooklyn, thanks to James Harden, just went out to Los Angeles and beat both Lakers and Clippers in somewhat convincing fashion. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is looking to make it a perfect 3-0 road trip tonight after wins in Washington and Toronto following a Christmas break. The Sixers have won three of their last four overall, the only loss coming by two points. I know there’s a chance Kevin Durant may return tonight for the Nets, but it’s no guarantee that he will play well after a two-week absence.

Brooklyn has not performed well this season when off a double-digit win. They are just 1-7 ATS in that situation, which presents itself again tonight as the Nets beat the Clippers 124-108 on Monday. Harden scored 39 points and the team shot 56.8% in that game. Even if Durant returns, there’s just no way they are going to match that kind of shooting tonight. Philly has done a good job defensively of late, holding two of its last three opponents below 100 points. Doing that again tonight might be asking a bit much, but it’s worth pointing out that the Nets “only” average 108.0 PPG at home. 

The 76ers, who are just 18-16 on the year and tied for 6th in the Eastern Conference, need this game more than the Nets. It’s also a double revenge game as they are 0-2 vs. Brooklyn this season. The first game saw them blow a halftime lead while the second saw them nearly rally back from a 20-point deficit, despite poor shooting (29.4% from three-point range). The 76ers were up by as many as 17 on Tuesday vs. Toronto as Joel Embiid turned in his sixth consecutive 30+ point game. This is an entirely different team when Embiid is in the lineup and they have actually been better on the road (than at home) this season. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia

10* Under Tennessee/Purdue (3:00 ET): After ending the regular season with a 5-0 Over run, Tennessee finished in a three-way tie (with Rice & La Tech) for the highest Over percentage in the country this season. As a result, the O/U line for the Music City Bowl has definitely been “on the move,” reaching a high point of 64.0 as of this writing. But this is where I’ve got to step in and go “the other way” as Purdue will be missing its top two receivers on Thursday and their games only averaged 48.0 points this season. 

Without the two top pass catchers - David Bell and Milton Wright - the Boilermakers’ offense won’t come close to resembling how it looked in upset victories over Iowa and Michigan State during the regular season. Consider that even with those two in the lineup, Purdue averaged “only” 27.5 PPG. And it’s not like they can turn to a run game which averaged only 2.78 yards per carry, worst in the entire FBS! It’s a completely one-dimensional Purdue offense and the Tennessee defense is catching a big break here with the top two Boilermakers’ receivers being out. 

Tennessee’s offense also has a prolific passing attack. But they struggle in pass protection, having given up 42 sacks, which was the most among SEC teams. Purdue’s defense is going to be without its ace pass rusher, George Karlaftis, but should still get to Vols QB Hendon Hooker with some regularity. The Boilermakers only allow 20.5 PPG and shut down pretty much everyone with the exception of Ohio State. With the O/U line moving so much, I’m seeing lots of value with the Under here. 10* Under Tennessee/Purdue

10* Oregon (9:15 ET): There was some concern earlier in the week on the Oregon side over players missing practice, but my view is this is too many points for a game where the favorite (Oklahoma) is dealing with numerous question marks itself. The Sooners’ lost HC Lincoln Riley right after a disappointing regular season concluded and Bob Stoops, who has spent the last several seasons as a TV commentator for FOX, will now be coaching the team for one night only. Stoops wearing the headset might be a fun “gimmick” for the talking heads, but I have my doubts as to how OU will play in this game.

Of course, Oregon also lost its HC (Mario Cristobal) right after the regular season as he jumped to Miami. Like Oklahoma, the Ducks’ chosen replacement is a well-known defensive coordinator, but it will be Bryan McClendon coaching here on an interim basis. The bloom seems to be off Oregon right now after two late season losses to Utah, one in the Pac 12 Championship, but I see that as a case of the Utes being a bad matchup. The only other time the Ducks lost this year was an overtime game, when they were short-handed, against Stanford. I love them getting this many points in the bowl. 

Oklahoma’s DC followed Riley to USC. On the field, the Sooners will be missing their top tackler and top three guys in sacks! There’s just no way they should be laying this many points. Don’t forget Oregon went to Ohio State and won earlier in the season and did so without DE Thibodeaux, who will be out here. Look for the Ducks’ offense, which averaged over 31 PPG, to make enough plays here to at least keep them within a generous number Wednesday night. Oklahoma certainly appears to be an overwhelming public favorite and that level of support is simply not justified. 10* Oregon

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers, statistically, have been better than the Hornets this season on a possession by possession basis. They’ve got a slightly higher net efficiency rating as well as a superior point differential. But Charlotte has the better overall record, 18-17 SU compared to 14-20 SU. How can that be? Well, Indiana has had the worst “luck” in the league in close games this season, going 1-8 SU when the final margin is three points or less. I think that tonight, it’s time for the Pacers to get a “little lucky.”

The Pacers have a much better record at home (11-7 SU) than on the road (3-13). Fortunately for them, tonight’s game is at home. While the last two home wins came against lightweights Houston and Detroit, Indiana has won five of six overall here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse with the one loss coming by two points to Golden State. Indiana’s disparity in win percentage at home vs. the road is the largest in the league. They were a bit short-handed (no Malcolm Brogden) for Sunday’s loss at Chicago, but I think the home court edge is the key here, even if Brogden (listed as questionable for tonight) cannot return. 

While Indiana is clearly a better team at home, Charlotte is just 9-13 SU on the road. The Hornets are dead last in the league in points allowed (116.3 per game), giving up 5.5 more per game than every other team in the Eastern Conference. They had a brief stop back home on Monday - when they blew out Houston 123-99. But before that, they’d gone 1-5 SU on a six-game West Coast swing. I think the Pacers’ home court edge and the Hornets’ leaky defense prove to be the difference makers in this one. 10* Indiana

10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): I think that it’s fair to say I was “ahead of the curve” on Seton Hall, whom I took early in the season in an upset win over Michigan. In my analysis for that play, I called the Pirates “one of the better teams in the country.” They’ve spent the bulk of the season ranked in the Top 25, though like a lot of squads, it’s been awhile since they took the court. Three straight cancellations, including their first two scheduled Big East games, have resulted in a 17-day gap between games for Seton Hall. 

Providence is a team I’m less sold on right now. Though also ranked in the Top 25, the Friars rate a lot lower than Seton Hall in my own personal power rankings. I do not even consider them to be a Top 45 team, let alone Top 25. But the Friars are 11-1, their only loss coming by 18 to Virginia back on Nov 23. They have gotten a Big East game in, a 57-53 win at UConn where the Friars were 7.5 point dogs and held their opponents to 31.1% shooting. What I would consider to be a second straight upset is unlikely, however. 

Seton Hall (9-1) is just plain better, in my eyes. Their only loss was by three points, on a neutral floor, to Ohio State back in November. In addition to the win over Michigan, the Pirates have beaten Texas. Providence’s best win - by far - was the one over UConn on Dec 18th. Obviously, both teams have had extended time off here, but I am simply going to trust my power rankings, which say Seton Hall is decidedly the better team here. 10* Seton Hall

8* Iowa State (5:45 ET): I think this is one of the better December bowl matchups. We’ve got two teams that started the season ranked in the Top 10. While the perception is that Clemson (now #19) and Iowa State (now unranked) had disappointing years, the reality is that both squads are still in the Top 15 of my own personal power rankings. Iowa State, the preseason favorite to win the Big 12, suffered five losses by a total of 29 points and all four conference losses were decided on the final possession. I think, even without RB Breece Hall, the ‘Clones will be motivated to make it eight wins for the fourth time in Matt Campbell’s six seasons here in Ames. Take the points. 

I can’t say that I’m too confident in Clemson’s motivation here. This is the first time in a while that the Tigers find themselves in a December bowl. After six straight appearances in the College Football Playoffs, they had three regular season losses for the first time since 2014. This in a year where the ACC was really down. While no Clemson players are skipping the Cheez-It Bowl, Dabo Swinney’s coaching staff has taken a hit as he lost both coordinators in the last few weeks. While the Tigers did have a strong finish to the regular season, it was against a very soft schedule.

Without Hall, Iowa State’s offense will be challenged going against a Clemson defense that, statistically, is among the best in the country. But I’m unconvinced that we’ll see the same level of defense from Clemson here in the bowl. The Tigers’ offense ranked just 96th in the FBS this year as QB DJ Uiagalelei really struggled, filling in for Trevor Lawrence. Iowa State’s defense should not be overlooked as it allowed just 309 YPG and ranks 13th against the pass.  It all boils down to motivation and I think ISU is going to use this game to make a statement to the rest of the country. 8* Iowa State

8* Under West Virginia/Minnesota (10:15 ET): With leading rusher Leddie Brown opting out of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, all of a sudden Minnesota becomes a very bad matchup for WVU. The Golden Gophers’ defense ranks fourth nationally in total defense and is ninth against the run. Without Brown, the Mountaineers are going to heavily lean on QB Jarret Doege, but the problem is Doege’s yards per pass attempt (7.4) ranked near the bottom of the Big 12 and WVU generated only 10 plays of 40+ yards all season. With Minnesota allowing just 4.98 yards per play and 18.3 PPG, WVU will struggle to score Tuesday night.

For the Golden Gophers, the running back position was hit hard by injuries, which led to some early growing pains. Still, look for HC PJ Fleck to look to establish the run in this game as Minnesota led the Big 10 in rushing attempts during the regular season. Whether or not that can be an effective strategy remains to be seen, however. West Virginia allows only 129.6 rush yards per game, 5.5 yards per play and 24.3 PPG. Even if Minnesota is able to find some success moving the football, they’ll encounter resistance in the red zone where the Mountaineers’ defense ranks 11th nationally in efficiency.

So this should be the rare low-scoring bowl game and I’m taking the Under. For what it’s worth, the total alternated over West Virginia’s last eight regular season games and the last one - a 34-28 win over Kansas that got them bowl eligible - went Over. So if that pattern holds, this game is staying Under. There were five games this year where WVU failed to top 20 points and that was with Brown in the lineup. Only two of Minnesota’s last 10 opponents were able to exceed 16 points. The Under is 12-3 in WVU’s L15 games as a dog while Minnesota has gone Under six straight times in the month of December. 8* Under West Virginia/Minnesota

10* Denver (10:05 ET): Golden State got a huge win on Christmas, beating Phoenix 116-107 as 5.5-point dogs. But now they are set to be even more short-handed with Draymond Green joining four other teammates on the COVID-19 list. Tonight’s game, the front end of a home and home with the Nuggets, isn’t nearly as important to Golden State as the X-Mas Day game was. So I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points to a Denver team looking to solidify its own spot in the Western Conference pecking order. 

The Nuggets picked up a win on Sunday, beating the Clippers 103-100. But they were four-point favorites, so they failed to cover. It was the fourth straight time Denver failed to cover as chalk. They’d lost the previous three outright. But the last time they were a dog saw them turn in an outstanding effort, winning in Atlanta 133-115. Right now, reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic seems to be a man on a mission with back to back 20+ point & 20+ rebound games. It’s 55 points and 43 rebounds for him over the last two games. 

Obviously, Golden State should still be respected as they have the best record in the league. But this is basically going to be the “Steph Curry show” tonight due to all the absences. Green’s absence is the biggest of the five and will be felt. Curry had 33 points on Christmas, but even if he were to match that number here, I don’t see it being enough for the Warriors to cover the spread. The last time the Dubs were off a win over Phoenix, they lost the next game outright. 10* Denver

8* Mississippi State (6:45 ET): The Liberty Bowl is a very interesting matchup as you have Mississippi State, coached by Mike Leach, taking on Texas Tech. Of course, once upon a time, Leach was the coach at Texas Tech (from 2000-09). In the build up for this game, Leach was quoted as saying, “They still owe me for 2009, the last time they won nine games. Maybe they’ll deliver the check.” So there’s still plenty of bad blood here. I think that MSU is going to want to win this game for their coach and they will win big. 

This is a bad matchup for the Texas Tech defense, which ranks 112th in the country against the pass. Opposing QBs completed 66.8% of their pass attempts against the Red Raider this season. It just so happens that no QB in the country had a higher completion percentage than Mississippi State’s Will Rogers, who is at 75.1%. Rogers threw for at least 294 yards in every game and finished with a SEC-leading 4,449 yards and a 35-8 TD-INT ratio. The Bulldogs average 30.9 PPG on offense. 

Texas Tech also averages 30.0 PPG, but you’ve got to wonder about their motivation for this game. They’re being led by an interim HC (Joey McGuire), who has already accepted a coaching job elsewhere (La Tech). The Red Raiders did not have a strong finish to the regular season, losing four of their last five games. That’s quite different from Mississippi State, who ended on a 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS run. The Bulldogs are better than their record as three of their five losses came by three points or less. 8* Mississippi State

10* Crystal Palace (10:00 AM ET): Crystal Palace is a Premier League side that ought to have more points. They’re actually seventh in xPts (expected points), but have been particularly unfortunate when it comes to the number of goals conceded (allowed seven more than expected) and as a result, the Eagles currently sit 12th in the table with just 20 points. COVID left them short-handed on Boxing Day as they took a 3-0 loss across London at the hands of Tottenham. They’ll still be down as many as six men for Tuesday’s fixture, but you’ve got to think that Norwich City is the most ideal opponent to face here. 

Norwich continues to sit at the foot of the table (in last) with only 10 points taken from their 18 EPL matches. It’s a little shocking to see that the Canaries remain only three points (one win) away from safety in the relegation battle, but that has as much to do with other sides (Watford, Burnley) having at least two matches in hand. I’ve felt from the beginning of the campaign that Dean Smith’s side is a lock to be relegated at season’s end and nothing I’ve seen thus far has done anything to dissuade me. Sunday’s ugly 5-0 loss to Arsenal leaves Norwich with a league-worst -31 goal differential. They are not good. 

While both sides were kept clean less than 48 hours ago, the fact CP played with only 10 men for the majority of the match should be taken into account. Sure, it was already 2-0 by the point, but the fact it didn’t get a whole lot uglier is probably a feather in the Eagles’ cap. Again, I feel they’ve played better than what the record shows. Their number of losses (6) this season is equal to that of top four Arsenal. Being the “kings of the draw” (8) hasn’t helped, but this is a most favorable fixture where CP should collect the full three points. They are unbeaten (with three wins) the last five times they’ve taken on Norwich. 10* Crystal Palace

8* Memphis (9:05 ET): The 116-107 loss that Phoenix suffered on X-Mas Day was only their third defeat in the last 28 games. It also snapped a 15-game win streak here at home. There is no denying the pecking order in the Western Conference has a clear top three teams and the Suns are among the three. But of the three teams, I actually believe Phoenix is the “worst.” Their point differential and efficiency rating lags behind those of the Warriors and Jazz. What I’m saying is that I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team that’s been red hot, slip up a little bit in the coming weeks. 

Memphis is currently fourth in the West. While there’s a four-game gap between them and the top three, the Grizzlies are coming off a 127-102 win in Sacramento last night. That ended a three-game losing streak. They come into tonight as decided underdogs, but that’s okay considering their 11-5 ATS mark in that role this season. Six of the last seven times the Grizz have been getting points, they have covered the number. They are also 7-1 ATS L8 road games. 

This number is jacked up due to Memphis coming in without rest. I get their rotation is shortened because of COVID, but the same can be said for Phoenix. Losing to Golden State on X-Mas may result in a bit of a “hangover” here for the Suns, while the Grizzlies are definitely looking to avenge a 25-point loss they suffered at home last month. That previous meeting saw Phoenix lead wire to wire as Memphis shot poorly. Look for better shooting from a motivated dog tonight. Take the points. 8* Memphis

10* Under Jazz/Spurs (8:35 ET): Both these teams are coming off back to back high scoring encounters. Utah held off Dallas on Christmas Night, 120-116, in a game that featured a ton of free throw attempts. That followed a 128-116 win over Minnesota. Meanwhile, San Antonio is off its two best offensive games of the season as they scored 138 on the Lakers Thursday and 144 on Detroit last night. For a variety of reasons, I anticipate we’ll be seeing a massive decrease in scoring from both teams on Monday. 

The Jazz won’t have PG Donovan Mitchell available tonight due to a back strain. The injury actually occurred in the first quarter of the Dallas game, but Mitchell still went on to score 33 points, his ninth 30+ point game of the season. It’s a big loss not having him on the floor for this game and Utah’s league-leading offense should suffer as a result. I certainly don’t expect the Jazz to get to the free throw line 37 times like they did vs. the Mavs. The team also averages fewer points per game on the road than it does at home. 

But Utah’s defense actually gets better on their travels, holding teams to 102.5 PPG. As a result, Jazz road games see about eight fewer total points per game scored than their home games. The defensive effort will be needed here against a Spurs team that just had its highest scoring first half and game of the season last night. But again, it is unlikely that SA can even come close to replicating that kind of offensive effort here. They too are without their starting PG (Murray) and the Under is 7-3 the L10 times the Spurs have been in the second night of a back to back.. Both teams are due to “cool off”. 10* Under Jazz/Spurs

10* Denver (4:25 ET): Point differential. That’s what this play essentially boils down to for me. Both teams are 7-7. But the Broncos have a +42 YTD point differential. The Raiders are -77. That’s quite the difference. When a team is .500, you’d expect their number of points scored and allowed to be pretty close to even. Yet that’s not the case with either of these teams. Denver should have a better record. Las Vegas should have a much worse record.  I’m taking the better team. 

The Broncos also have revenge here for a 34-24 loss in Week 6. Total yardage was basically even in that game (424-421), but Denver was -4 in turnovers. 

If you’re a long-term follower of mine, then you know I’m a big believer in scoring differential being a strong indicator of future outcomes, not just in NFL but for all sports. Looking at the Raiders’ point differential, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see them lose all of their remaining games. They could barely beat a COVID-ravaged Cleveland team last Monday. In six of the last seven games, this Raiders’ offense has scored 16 points or less. I just don’t think Las Vegas is a very good football team! 10* Denver

8* Over Jaguars/Jets (1:00 ET): I also like the Over in this game. Again, the Jaguars should score a season-high in points. There have been only two games since their bye, which was in Week 6, where the Jets didn’t allow at least 30 points. I know I talked about the Jets being short-handed when it comes to pass catchers, but considering that last week marked the seventh time this season that the Jaguars’ defense surrendered 30 or more points, the home team should have its own opportunities to score. With this being a matchup of two of the worst teams in football, expect little defense to be played and a surprising shootout to ensue. The Over is 4-0 in the previous meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Jets

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): The Jaguars were actually a popular choice last week. They’d just fired the embarrassing Urban Meyer and were facing Houston. Unfortunately, it was “same old Jags” as they lost for a second time this season to the Texans, 30-16 as six-point chalk. I was one of those that made the mistake of taking Jacksonville in that spot. Call me stubborn, but I think *this* is now the week this struggling side “gets off the mat.” They are facing a Jets team that’s missing a lot of key personnel, including its head coach. 

The Jets have been just as miserable as the Jaguars this season. New York has one more win than Jacksonville, but also has a slightly worse YTD point differential. Last week saw the Jets suffer their third straight defeat, 31-24 at Miami. They’ve now been outscored by 178 points. The Jags have been outscored by 174. Those are the two worst point differentials in the sport. But the key is the Jets being without HC Robert Saleh as well as their three top receivers, a tight end and two guards. 

If the Jags, after a coaching change, can’t be the short-handed Jets, then I don’t know what to say. The Jets’ defense is the worst in the league by a pretty wide margin. It allows 30.6 points per game. So look for Jacksonville’s offense to score a season-high in points today. They have not scored more than 23 in any game all year. If they fail to score 24 against the Jets, they would be the first team since the 2010 Panthers to not score 24 points in their first 15 games of the season. The time is now for Jacksonville! 8* Jacksonville

8* LA Rams (1:00 ET): The Rams are now in first place in the NFC West following last night’s loss by Arizona. In order to stay there, they must defeat Minnesota here. Given what the Rams have done each of the last two weeks, it would be foolish to bet against them. Two weeks ago, despite being severely short-handed because of COVID, they were able to go on the road and beat the Cardinals 30-23 in front of a national TV audience. Then came Tuesday’s 20-10 win over Seattle. Lay the points here. 

An outbreak that once included 29 players is now down to four for the Rams and none of those four that remain on the COVID list are starters. Look for the Rams offense to have a big passing day here against a Vikings defense that is allowing 252.1 yards per game through the air. Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp now has 10 straight games with at least 90 yards receiving. Sean McVay’s defense turned in a fine effort Tuesday night, holding Seattle to not just 10 points, but only 214 total yards. 

Minnesota is also on a short week here. They won 17-9 in Chicago on Monday, but it was not a good performance as the offense gained less than 200 yards and went 5 of 17 on third down. They were outgained by the Bears 370-193. The Vikings were quite lucky to recover three fumbles in the game. WR Adam Thielen will be back this week, but RB Dalvin Cook has been ruled out and that is potentially more significant.  8* LA Rams

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): First place in the AFC East is on the line Sunday in New England. The Patriots won the first meeting with the Bills, a famously windy affair where QB Mac Jones attempted only three passes. That win is the difference in the standings right now as New England enters this game at 9-5 while Buffalo is 8-6. But Mother Nature is not expected to play such a key role in today’s rematch and I think the better team (Buffalo) will rise to the top.

The Bills are 15-8-1 ATS as an underdog and 18-9-1 ATS as an underdog with Josh Allen as the QB. They are 10-4-1 ATS as road underdogs. In the first meeting, Buffalo was the team more adversely affected by the windy conditions as it severely limited what they could do in the passing game. Red zone inefficiency also played a role in the 14-10 loss. Late in the game, the Bills missed a field goal and turned it over on downs. Expect Allen to be a lot more effective this time around, even without receiver Cole Beasley (who is on the COVID-19 list). The Bills have averaged 29 points in the two games since losing to New England. 

Remember that the Patriots lost last week, 27-17 at Indianapolis. They were actually underdogs. The loss snapped a seven-game SU/ATS win streak. With Tennessee’s win on Thursday, the Pats have fallen into third place in the AFC playoff picture. This is an important game for them too, obviously. But the offense hasn’t been putting up big numbers and the defense won’t be able to slow down the Bills for a second time. 8* Buffalo

10* Under Mavericks/Jazz (10:35 ET): Rolling into XMas night with a 22-9 overall record, Utah is pretty clearly one of the three top teams in the NBA right now, alongside Phoenix and Golden State. While the Jazz may trail both those teams in the standings, they are actually level with the Warriors for the best point differential in the league and have an ever-so-slightly better net efficiency rating. I’ve got them at #1 in my own personal power ratings. The most efficient offensive team in the league (and highest scoring), the Jazz are big favorites here against the short-handed Mavericks. But it won’t take many points to win this game. You’re going to want to go with the Under here.

The Under has hit in 9 of Dallas’ last 11 games. Part of that is the Mavericks play at the slowest pace in the entire league. Fewer possessions equal fewer points and that’s the name of the game here. But the main reason the Mavs will look to “shorten” the game is because Luka Doncic (and likely many others) remain out because of COVID. The team could manage only 95 points last time out as they suffered a seven-point loss to Milwaukee (who was without Giannis Antetokounmpo). In that game, the Mavs had five players suit up that were under 10-day contracts. Three of the top four scorers are out. Doncic won’t even travel with the team XMas Day. 

So I’d say it’s a safe assumption that Dallas won’t be doing a ton of scoring on Saturday. Only twice in their last 11 games have they scored more than 105 in a game and those were against Charlotte and Minnesota, two of the worst defensive teams. The key to this Under then rests on the Mavs’ ability to slow down the Utah offense. One good thing for the Mavs is that I don’t think the Jazz are going to shoot as well as they did on Thursday vs. Minnesota when they made 53.3% of their FG attempts. A natural decline from that number will help the underdog, who is not only 9-2 Under their L11 games overall, but also 35-17 Under the L52 times taking points. 10* Under Mavericks/Jazz

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): The Cardinals badly need to win this game. Not just because they’ve lost two straight and four of their last seven. The losing streak has resulted in them falling into a tie with Los Angeles for first place in the NFC West. Earlier in the year, when they were 7-0, the Cards had to figure they were a shoo-in for the top seed in the NFC. But now they are looking at possibly falling into a Wild Card spot as last week saw the “unthinkable” happen - a 30-12 loss in Detroit, a game that Arizona was favored to win by 13 points. 

The Cardinals’ opponents this week, Indianapolis, are trending in a much different direction. The Colts have won five of six, including a very impressive showing last Saturday (at home) vs. New England. But despite winning 27-17, QB Carson Wentz was abysmal against the Patriots, completing only 5 of 12 passes for 57 yards. The Colts were outgained in that game, not just on a per play basis, but also 365-275 overall. Interestingly enough, they are 0-5 ATS coming off a game where they had less than 150 passing yards. 

On Thursday night, we all saw how one team (Tennessee) that was seemingly trending in the wrong direction beat a hot team (San Francisco). I believe the same will hold true here. The Cardinals are still higher than the Colts in my power ratings. Factoring that in plus the home field, they should be a larger favorite in this spot. Obviously, they’re going to be motivated coming off their worst loss of the season. Meanwhile, Indy is off arguably its best win of the season and thus could be in store for a letdown. This is the first time Arizona has been off B2B losses this year. Indy is 3-9 ATS the L12 times it has been off B2B wins. 10* Arizona

8* Under Browns/Packers (4:30 ET): The Browns have activated several key contributors from the COVID-19 list, among them QB Baker Mayfield and WR Jarvis Landry. They will also have HC Kevin Stefanski back on the sidelines after he too missed last Saturday’s 16-14 home loss to the Raiders. But pinning that lackluster offensive effort on all of the absences might be “wishful thinking” in Cleveland; this is a team that has been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of its last nine games. One of the two times it wasn’t was thanks to a defensive TD. The presumed return of Mayfield and company won’t necessarily lead to an abundance of scoring from the Browns here. 

Now Green Bay doesn’t have much difficulty scoring, thanks to Aaron Rodgers. While the Browns’ postseason hopes just took a massive hit with that loss to the Raiders, the Packers are already assured of a spot in the postseason and have wrapped up the NFC North. They come into Saturday at 11-3 SU having just held on to beat the Ravens last week, 31-30, when Baltimore failed to convert a two-point try.

That was the fourth straight game to go Over for the Packers and they’ve averaged 35.7 PPG themselves during that stretch. I’ll get back to that in a minute. But first, I’ve got no worries about the Packers’ defense keeping the Cleveland offense in check here. I’ve already documented the Browns’ season-long offensive struggles. It’s more than half their games that they’ve failed to score more than 17 points. Well, Green Bay’s defense only allows 17.0 PPG at Lambeau. So there’s that. But Cleveland’s defense has allowed 16 points or less in eight games this season, including six of the last eight. 8* Under Browns/Packers

10* Over Ball State/Georgia State (2:30 ET): In last year’s bowl appearance, Ball State provided me with the biggest win of the College Football season. The Cardinals were my 10* Game of the Year going up against undefeated San Jose State in the Arizona Bowl. I remember it like it was yesterday. As a nine-point underdog, BSU raced out to a 27-0 first quarter lead and never looked back in a 34-13 outright victory! While I’m not taking the Cardinals plus the points this time, hopefully this Over play wins just as easily! 

Now asking Ball State to go Over the total this season hasn’t been easy. Only three of their 12 games have ended up that way. But this is a bowl game - on Christmas Day no less - and defense may certainly be “optional,” not just for the Cardinals, but for both teams. I know that the last three bowl games all stayed Under. But the Over was 9-2 in the first 11 bowls. Then there’s the matter of this being the second lowest O/U line for any BSU game all season. The previous low was 47.5 for a game with Army. 

It’s interesting to note that while the Under may be 9-3 in all BSU games this season, eight of those would have gone OVER this total. Similarly, Georgia State games averaged 54.0 points this season and at least half would have exceeded this number. There were five games this season, four of them losses, where the Panthers allowed 34 or more points. But their offense also seemed to “peak” down the stretch, averaging 35.7 points over the last three games, a stretch which included a 42-40 upset of Coastal Carolina. 10* Over Ball State/Georgia State

8* New York (12:05 ET): It seems as if EVERY team in the league is currently being hit hard by COVID-19 related absences, but the Hawks and Knicks are both dealing with some SERIOUS attrition heading into XMas Day. Atlanta was already without SEVEN players due to health & safety protocols before both Cam Reddish and Delon Wright suffered sprained ankles on Thursday. Somehow Atlanta still managed to upset Philadelphia, 98-96, as Joel Embiid missed a potential game-tying shot at the buzzer. But of the starting five from last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals, John Collins is the lone starter left for the Hawks right now. The most prominent absence is Trae Young, who is not expected to play here.

Not to be outdone, the Knicks have five players in quarantine and Derrick Rose is out due to an ankle injury. While the Hawks managed to somehow win their last game, the Knicks were not as fortunate, losing 124-117 to Washington despite 44 points from Kemba Walker. It was an inability to get stops that doomed New York on Thursday night as they let the Wizards shoot 56% from the field. The loss was the Knicks’ ninth in the last 12 games as this continues to be a very disappointing season with the team now four games below .500 and outside of a play-in tournament spot. Remember that last year saw NY finish fourth in the Eastern Conference, only to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs - by Atlanta. 

So neither team’s lineup on Saturday is going to resemble what we saw in last year’s playoffs. But that doesn’t mean that the Knicks won’t still be out for revenge. Yes, they already did beat the Hawks 99-90 (in Atlanta) last month. But a win on XMas would be an even bigger deal. Walker has shown himself to be capable of carrying the scoring load for New York. I don’t know who can do that now for the Hawks, who did beat the Sixers, but also lost to the Magic the previous day. In both games, the Hawks scored just 98 points. They are 0-3 SU/ATS this season coming off a SU win as an underdog. The Knicks should also defend better here than they did vs. the Wizards the other night. 8* New York

8* Over Thunder/Suns (9:05 ET): This may surprise you given how I spoke of the Thunder in yesterday’s (successful) Under play. While it’s still true that Oklahoma City is the lowest scoring team in the NBA, they have now topped their season average in four straight games, which includes three consecutive straight up victories over teams that were in the playoffs last year. I expect the Thunder to shoot a lot better from three-point range tonight than they did Wednesday vs. Denver (23.5%) and the team they face is more than capable of putting a big number on the board. So Over is the call on Thursday. 

Phoenix has shown no real signs of regressing after last year’s run to the NBA Finals. They did start the season 1-3, but since then have gone 24-2 SU including an 18-game win streak. The Suns easily beat the Lakers on Tuesday, 108-90, for their fourth straight victory. As you can see, that was a relatively low-scoring victory as the Suns shot below 30% from three-point range. (They were coming off a game where they shot 56.8% overall and scored 137 points). At the defensive end, the Suns were even stingier though, holding the Lakers to 39.1% overall including 7 of 35 from three-point range.

Don’t be surprised if/when the three-pointers are flying (and going in) tonight. Phoenix shoots 37.4% from behind the arc at home, so I’d say they are a lock to shoot better tonight than they did vs. the Lakers. They are averaging 113.5 PPG at home and that’s a number I believe they can exceed here. If so, we’re only going to need 100 from OKC and given their recent form, that seems “doable” as well. When in the second night of a back to back, the Thunder are allowing over 120 PPG this season. The Over is 20-8 in Phoenix’s last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and OKC is 5-9 SU on the road this year. 8* Over Thunder/Suns

10* Over 49ers/Titans (8:20 ET): San Francisco is surging and despite still only being third in their own division, they are very much in play for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Niners have won five of their last six games and last week’s 31-13 dismantling of the lowly Falcons marked the fourth time in that stretch where they scored 30 or more points. The other two games saw them score 26 and 23. Over the L8 weeks, Jimmy Garoppolo has posted the league’s 2nd best passer rating (trailing only Aaron Rodgers!) and the running game has averaged 142.4 YPG since Week 11. So expect the Niners to put up points tonight. 

Tennessee still leads the AFC South, but its once strong grip is loosening as they’ve lost three of their last four games. The division lead (over the Colts) is now down to just one game after blowing a 10-point lead last week and losing 19-13 to the Steelers. That marked the third time in the last four games that the Titans could only put 13 points on the board. But surprisingly the offense has still been able to run the ball without Derrick Henry as they’ve gone for 200+ yards on the ground in two of the last three games. QB Tannehill may be getting some help in the passing game as WR AJ Brown could return tonight. It’s been reported that Brown is “likely” to play. 

Though it’s been mostly Unders produced by these two teams in recent weeks, look for this one to go Over. The number is just too low. The Niners, who have probably the more “reliable” offense of the two teams right now, are 4-0 Over this season when the total is below 45. Brown’s return would be big for Tennessee, but even without him they should put up enough points here (for the game to go Over) as it’s been turnovers more than anything else that have limited their scoring the last few weeks. The Over is 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight games as a home dog. 10* Over 49ers/Titans

10* Florida (7:00 ET): Call it a “hunch,” but the Gasparilla Bowl is probably NOT where either of these two once proud Floridian schools wanted to end their season. UCF, which went 35-4 SU from 2017-19 including a perfect 13-0 in ‘17, has now lost four games in each of the last two seasons. Losing QB Dillon Gabriel to a season-ending injury was the key “blow” this season, although it should be mentioned that the Golden Knights were 6-2 down the stretch without Gabriel. But the majority of those wins were racked up against the dregs of the AAC. Outside of Cincinnati, who blew UCF out 56-21, Florida will be the toughest opponent of the season. 

At 6-6, the Gators were probably one of the more disappointing teams in the country. It was only a year ago that they ranked sixth in the country under Dan Mullen. Mullen has been fired and the program will be “starting over” under Billy Napier, who was wooed away from Louisiana. Coaching the bowl game for Florida will be a mix of Mullen’s staff. I acknowledge not having QB Richardson and DE Carter hurts the Gators, but my power rankings still call this a Top 30 team in the country and they are simply way more talented than UCF is. 

I think it’s safe to say that a six-game ATS losing streak (for Florida) is what’s keeping this line so short. But again, UCF hasn’t beaten anyone of note since Boise State in the season opener. I think the fact that this is an “in-state rivalry game” will motivate the favorite as the players don’t want to head into a new regime having lost to a lesser Sunshine State school. QB Jones is going to enter the transfer portal. While he may not care about the future of football in Gainesville, he’s going to want to look good for whomever his next team will be. At the end of the day, the Gators are simply the much better team here and they are 6-2 ATS L8 as a bowl favorite. Thus, I’ll lay the points. 10* Florida

10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Over their last six games, the Nuggets have basically averaged almost 120 points per game. Not convinced they can continue to maintain that kind of average moving forward, especially because they are averaging only 106.8 PPG for the season. So look for a decrease in scoring from Denver tonight. Those last six games have all gone Over the total as have 13 of their last 14 games. But tonight they are facing the lowest scoring team in the entire NBA. Take the Under.

There’s definitely no shot of Denver matching its scoring output from the last game when they went to Atlanta and shot 58.1% overall from the field, including 17 made three-pointers. The Nuggets currently have a number of players dealing with injuries, so it was definitely surprising to see them “go off” like that on Friday. By the way, the Nuggets haven’t played since Friday. They were supposed to play Brooklyn Sunday, but that had to be postponed. A lengthy layoff could lead to some “rust” and a slow start at the offensive end tonight. 

Oklahoma City is coming off B2B wins, which is a rare occurrence for them. They’ve upset the Clippers and Grizzlies over the last few days. Both games stayed Under. As mentioned above, the Thunder are the lowest scoring team in the NBA. They don’t even average 100 PPG. Neither of these teams like to play at a particularly fast pace, so we don’t have to worry about that. Denver is 12-5 Under its previous 17 games as a road favorite. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder

8* Missouri (8:00 ET): Well, there certainly seems like a lot of reasons to discount Missouri in this game. The Tigers aren’t very good at stopping the run (usually a problem when facing Army), their own starting running back (SEC’s leading rusher) is out and they’ll be breaking in a new starting QB. But, this is still a SEC team that has had ample time to prepare for what they’ll face on Wednesday night. As for Army, the disappointment of losing to Navy probably “soured” them on this game a bit. Take the points. 

If you look at who Army beat this year, it’s not exactly a “who’s who” of College Football. Liberty, UMass, Bucknell, Air Force, Miami OH, UConn, Western Kentucky and Georgia State were the victims. That list includes a FCS team and the two worst FBS teams. The Black Knights couldn’t run the ball vs. Navy, which was a surprise. I know that Navy runs the same offense, so they are uniquely suited to stop the triple option. But also think of the time Missouri has had to prepare to defend it. That’s key. 

Brady Cook will get his first career start tonight for the Tigers. Having just played 11 days ago, it’s going to be tough for Army to prepare for a new starting QB that they’ve never seen before. That brings me to my next point - Missouri has had far more time off to prepare for this game. They last took the field on Nov 26. They figure to come out a lot fresher in this Armed Forces Bowl and I think a hot start will - at the very least - result in an ATS win. With the line moving as much as it has, we’re getting good value on the dog. 8* Missouri

8* Georgia (7:00 ET): Georgia is having a tough season. They’ve already lost two starters to season-ending injuries. The end result is a 5-6 SU record coming into Wednesday. But the Bulldogs did win earlier in the week, beating Western Carolina 85-79 on Monday. They failed to cover though as 11.5 point chalk. The pointspread has certainly been unkind to UGA so far this season as they are just 4-7 at the betting window and that includes a 2-0 start to the year. But it's a small number at home tonight and I’m laying it. 

East Tennessee State comes into Athens with a 7-5 overall record (straight up). But they are coming off a loss, 79-64 at UNC Asheville on Saturday. That was actually the second straight loss for the Buccaneers as they went down at the hands of North Carolina A&T (as 12-point favorites!) last week. And Saturday’s result also dropped them to 0-4 SU this year in “true” road games. It would certainly appear as if ETSU is getting a bit too much credit from oddsmakers here, probably due to the Georgia injuries. 

Again, those injuries didn’t prevent the Bulldogs from winning on Monday and they also put up 85 points in the process. East Tennessee State likes to play slow, so if Georgia can push the tempo, they should be in good shape tonight. There are still four players on the team averaging in double figures. The key here for Georgia will be improving their three-point shooting. They’re at just 30.7% for the season, which is bad enough that you have to figure they almost HAVE to improve. 8* Georgia

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): This is an immediate revenge situation for Dallas, who lost to Minnesota 111-105 on Sunday night. Ironically enough, I had the T’wolves minus the points in that game. But now it’s time to go the “other way,” even though the Mavs look to be short-handed going into the rematch. Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game while Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. Several other players have made their way onto the COVID-19 list. But we’ve seen “strange things” (i.e. wins) all season from these teams dealing with absences. I look for the other players to step it up on Tuesday night. 

Minnesota has now won four in a row and passed Dallas in the Western Conference standings. With the West seemingly so depth-shy this season and the advent of a play-in round, this would seem to be an ideal year for the T’wolves to make a rare playoff appearance. But a couple things to keep in mind here - they are dealing with a couple players on the COVID list and even with Dallas being short-handed on Sunday, the T’wolves could only win by six at home. They trailed going into the fourth quarter. 

Poor shooting doomed the Mavericks in the 4Q and losing Porzingis to injury didn’t help matters. But at home, you’ve got to expect they’ll shoot better than 43.9% (including just 12 of 41 from 3-pt range) as they did on Sunday. The combo of Hardaway Jr, Finney-Smith and Brunson combined for 69 points last time out. Like I’ve said before, it also seems as if SOMEONE steps up in these situations. Minnesota has been a road favorite only one time previous to this all season. 10* Dallas

8* Under UTSA/San Diego State (7:30 ET): The Frisco Bowl is our best postseason matchup yet as we’ve got two Top 25 teams facing off Tuesday night. The pointspread has been on the move as UTSA’s star running back (Sincere McCormick) won’t play here as he prepares for the NFL Draft. The Roadrunners are also going to be without a couple of key players on defense. Were they at “full strength,” there’s little doubt I’d be siding with UTSA in this one as they look for the first bowl win in program history, following a 12-1 SU regular season and C-USA Championship. But I think the offense may struggle here.

San Diego State did not have a good showing in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, losing to Utah State 46-13 as 6.5-point favorites. The Aztecs played that game short-handed as multiple players were out because of COVID. You’re now likely to see a better representation of the team that was 11-1 SU prior to losing to Utah State 17 days ago. The number of points SDSU allowed in the MWC Championship Game were the most ever under HC Brady Hoke. The Aztecs are #2 in the country at stopping the run and figure to slow down a UTSA offense that will be without its best offensive player. 

In fact, I’ll argue that San Diego State has the best defense that UTSA will have faced all season. Though the Roadrunners did explode for 49 points in the C-USA Championship Game, that was against a Western Kentucky team that doesn’t play much defense. They’d been held to just 28 PPG in the three games previous to that and that was with McCormick in the lineup. I’m not too worried about a SDSU offense that hasn’t scored more than 28 points since early October. In fact, the Aztecs averaged only 20.8 PPG over the last eight contests. I know that these bowl games have been high-scoring thus far, but not this one. 8* Under UTSA/San Diego State

8* LA Rams (7:00 ET): Coming off their biggest win of the season - last Monday’s 30-23 triumph at Arizona - the Rams were thrown into disarray with 25 players having to be put into COVID-19 protocol as of Thursday. That resulted in this game with the Seahawks being pushed back until Tuesday. While it may seem risky to still lay points with Los Angeles in this spot, they’ll still have QB Matthew Stafford on the field tonight and I simply feel they are still much better than the 5-8 Seahawks, whom they defeated 26-17 back in Week 5 on a Thursday night. I took the Rams then and will play them again in the rematch. 

Russell Wilson’s return to the Seattle lineup has resulted in B2B wins, 30-23 over San Francisco and 33-13 over Houston. But this is not a good Seahawks team. They rank dead last in the league in yards per game allowed, making it almost improbable that they somehow have allowed the fifth fewest points. The offense is 28th in the league in yards gained and Wilson may not have WR Tyler Lockett (COVID) available to throw to. While Seattle has put up 30+ points in B2B games, let’s not forget how pathetic the offense had looked (even with Wilson back) in the three prior games. 

The Rams’ offense is first in the league in yards per play (6.2), fourth in scoring (28.2 PPG) and has scored 28 or more in six of the last eight games. Other than TE Higbee, it looks like HC Sean McVay will have his full complement of players on that side of the ball. Remember the Rams were short-handed when they went into Arizona and won last week. I consider them one of the top teams in the league and they’ve covered 23 of the last 35 conference games. 8* LA Rams

10* Lehigh (7:00 ET): It’s not been a positive start to the season for Lehigh as the Mountain Hawks have just one win, which came back on Nov 23 against Colombia. Yet they are still the favorites here, which should tell you all you “need to know” about Albany. Now Lehigh has failed each of their last four tries as chalk, losing three of those games outright. But I look for this one to “be the charm” as they’ve been off for 17 days while Albany just played on Saturday. Lay the points. 

Albany has not exactly been a “cash-cow” by any means. They are just 3-8 ATS, not to mention 3-8 straight up as well. The Great Danes just lost 66-58 to Niagara as 5.5 point dogs. That followed two wins, both of which were by four points or less. In fact, the team’s three wins this year have been by a total of just seven points! So this could pretty easily be an 0-11 team coming into tonight. They have just one road win all year.

When breaking this matchup down, I simply *have* to come back to the massive edge in rest that Lehigh has. Since the Mountain Hawks last played, Albany has been on the court four different times, three of those coming over the previous 10 days. Scoring has been a real problem all season for the Great Danes, even more so than for Lehigh, as the visitors come in averaging a paltry 57.8 PPG on the season and even fewer than that over the L5 games. 10* Lehigh

10* Kent State (3:30 ET): After a 1-3 SU start to the season (all three losses to P5 teams), Kent State was able to “dust itself off” and win the MAC East with a 6-2 conference record. They were favored in the Conference Championship Game over Northern Illinois (by 3.5) but were outclassed in that contest, almost from the start, and ended up losing 41-23. Thus the Golden Flashes’ landing spot for the bowls is in Boise, ID for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, an annual battle between the MAC and Mountain West. With just one bowl win in program history (2019), it’s not like Kent State won’t be motivated here. 

Wyoming’s season got off to a great start as they were 4-0 heading into October with a win over MAC Champion Northern Illinois. But the Cowboys really sputtered down the stretch, losing six of their last eight games (though they did defeat eventual MWC Champ Utah State). It should be noted that the Pokes were favored only twice over those last eight games, both times by double digits, and on each occasion they lost outright. One of those losses was to lowly New Mexico. (The other was the regular season finale vs. Hawaii). Overall, Wyoming was just 1-4-1 ATS as chalk during the regular season. They barely beat Montana State (FCS) and UConn, winning those games by a FG or less. 

People may point to the fact Wyoming is 2-0 vs. the MAC in 2021 and also defeated its own conference champ in the regular season. But Kent State plus the points seems like the right call here. Should be noted that the Golden Flashes also beat Northern Illinois in the regular season. The rematch in the MAC Championship was their lowest scoring effort in conference play all season. This team comes in averaging 32.6 PPG (compared to just 23.2 for Wyoming). With offense being the key in these early bowl games, I see the underdog having the edge here. They are 8-2 ATS their L10 games off an ATS loss. 10* Kent State

8* Utah (9:05 ET): The Jazz have now suffered back to back upset losses here at home, first to the Spurs (128-126) and then to the Wizards (109-103). Those games took place Friday and Saturday. I faded them against the Wizards as it was a large spread in the second night of a back to back. Still, it was a bit shocking to see the Jazz lose the game outright. This is a team that had previously won eight in a row before the B2B setbacks. They rank 1st overall in my power ratings, having outscored opponents by 10.5 points per game this season. Look for a strong statement to be made Monday against a road-weary opponent. 

Charlotte finds itself in the same situation Utah was in Saturday, that being the second game of a back to back. The only difference is that the Hornets are on the road. It’s not “just” the second night of a back to back either; it’s also the team’s fifth consecutive road game and third in four days. Of the Hornets’ first 32 games, 20 have come away from home where they are giving up 119.3 PPG. It was a blowout loss last night in Phoenix, 137-106, as the team has allowed an average of 124 points its last five games. For the season, Charlotte ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency and points allowed. 

That’s a problem when facing a Utah team that is #1 in offensive efficiency and points scored. Talk about a mismatch. The Jazz rested PG Mike Conley against the Wizards, which partially explains the loss. He’ll be back on the floor tonight and the team should shoot a lot better than it did on Saturday. The Jazz are 20-6 SU this season with Conley in the lineup. While this is a larger number than I typically lay in a NBA game, Charlotte is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS  when playing without rest and going from Phoenix to Utah is the toughest spot they’re likely to be in all season. Lay the number. 8* Utah

8* Notre Dame (8:00 ET): The Fighting Irish have not had much luck at the betting window this season (just 1-7 ATS), but a recent upset of Kentucky (lone ATS win) shows what they are capable of doing. The Irish gave a rude welcome to UK here in South Bend, winning 66-62 as a 4.5-point underdog. Sadly, they couldn’t follow up, losing 64-56 to Indiana (in Indianapolis) in the Crossroads Classic. But that was a close game most of the way and the final score wasn’t really indicative of how ND played. A much easier opponent here should result in a big win on Monday. Lay the points. 

Western Michigan has the same number of wins (4) as Notre Dame, but two of their wins have been against non-DI opponents, including the last game - a 67-56 win over Aquinas. The other two were against teams ranked outside the top 250 in my power ratings. Seemingly even more pertinent is the fact that all six of the Broncos’ losses have been by double digits and by an average of 25 PPG. They were absolutely hammered in losses to Michigan State (90-46) and Iowa (109-61), which isn’t all that surprising. But even the likes of Detroit (83-64) and Saginaw Valley (80-63) were able to hammer them. Saginaw Valley isn’t even a D-I school! 

Notre Dame has struggled to make shots this season, but that should change here against a WMU team that is one of the worst in the country defensively. The Broncos are 343rd in the country (out of 358 teams) in defensive efficiency. With ACC play looming, the Fighting Irish could really use a big win here and then Wednesday over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. I think they’ll take care of business tonight as the three-pointers will start to fall against a team that struggles to defend from behind the arc. ND only allows 58.3 PPG at home. WMU allows 86.8 PPG on the road. 8* Notre Dame

10* Cleveland (5:00 ET): This game was originally scheduled for Saturday, but a COVID-19 outbreak within the Browns organization pushed it back 48 hours. There are obviously some key players missing for Cleveland, not to mention HC Kevin Stefanski, but I still see them beating Las Vegas at home. Both these teams are desperate for a win to remain relevant in the AFC playoff hunt, but I’ve got little faith in a Raiders team that has been outscored by 77 points this year, the 4th worst differential in the conference. Lay the points. 

Las Vegas is coming off an ugly 48-9 loss to Kansas City, which was the second time in four weeks they got blown out by the Chiefs. Those two losses obviously had a major impact on the aforementioned point differential, but the Silver and Black have also dropped five of their last six overall. The only win came on Thanksgiving Day, in overtime, against the Cowboys. That win was the only time in the last six games that the offense was able to score more than 16 points. In more than half their games this season, the Raiders have been held to 16 or less. 

Third stringer Nick Mullens is likely to be the Browns’ starting QB in this one. From 2018-20, Mullens made 16 starts for the 49ers, so he’s not “new to this.” I don’t think that the Cleveland offense is going to need to put up many points here. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in over half of its games this season and held the Ravens out of the end zone for three quarters last week. I already mentioned the Raiders’ offensive woes. Obviously, all the absences must be accounted for, but with the game being pushed back hopefully some of those Browns players that tested positive can return. I’m not a huge Baker Mayfield fan to begin with, so I don’t think he’ll be all that missed. 10* Cleveland

7* Levante (3:00 ET): Poor Levante. The Frogs are still winless this season and at the foot of the La Liga table (in last place) with only eight points taken from their first 17 matches. They are seven points adrift of safety (meaning getting out of the relegation zone), so wins are desperately needed at this point. But with more than half (9 of 17) of Levante’s results this season ending up as draws, I thought it would be a wise move to play them on the goal line. Underlying metrics suggest Levante should be much higher in the table as they actually rank 13th in xPts (22.08) with the number of goals conceded seemingly being a very unlucky number. 

Now the opposition is in good form as Valencia is undefeated in eight straight across all competitions, including victories in each of the last four. That includes a couple wins this month in the Copa del Rey. Los Che currently sit 8th in the La Liga table, only four points behind fourth place Atletico Madrid. But this side has been a bit lucky throughout the campaign. Not just in a 2-1 win over Elche last week (where they lost the possession battle), but also coming from behind to beat Celta Vigo by the same scoreline two weeks ago. There was also a crazy draw with Atletico earlier in the season where Valencia was able to rally back from a two-goal deficit. 

On the flip side, Levante seemed a bit unlucky to end up with a 4-3 loss to Espanyol last week. Twice the Frogs blew a one-goal advantage. That they’ve yet to win since a managerial change is a bit surprising as typically there is a “bounce” after such a move is made. Note that three of Valencia’s last five results in La Liga have been draws and they lost the corresponding fixture here in Levante 1-0 last season. I have a “feeling” that it’s time for the hosts to pick up their first win of the season, but the GL protects us in case of a draw. 7* Levante

8* Tulsa (2:30 ET): Monday in Myrtle Beach is hardly the most “ideal” bowl destination, but both Tulsa and Old Dominion WANT to be here and not just because of the weather. Both teams finished the regular season strong; Tulsa with a three-game win streak and ODU with a five-game SU and ATS win streak. Those respective win streaks got both teams to 6-6 on the year, so making a bowl was clearly important to them. But while the finishes to the regular season may have been similar, I see a significant gap in talent between the two sides and will be laying the points with Tulsa. 

Now underdogs (and Overs) have clearly been the way to go so far in these early bowl matchups. But expect this one to be different, at least as far as the pointspread is concerned. Tulsa has outscored their opponents 98-54 during the three-game win streak. Four of their six losses this year came to Top 25 teams, including Ohio State and Oklahoma State, the latter of which they led (on the road!) in the 4Q. While it was somewhat of a disappointing regular season for the Golden Hurricane, after rallying to beat SMU 34-31 in the regular season finale, there’s no better way to cap things than with the program’s 1st bowl win since 2016. 

I do have to give credit to ODU for how they finished the regular season. But at one time, this was a 1-6 SU football team that looked to be going “nowhere fast.” Their five-game win streak saw them beat La Tech, FIU, Fla Atlantic, Middle Tennessee and Charlotte. Of that quintet of opponents, only one made a bowl (Middle Tennessee) and they were also a 6-6 team in the regular season. The Monarchs have no other wins over bowl eligible teams this season. Their run defense put up good numbers, but will struggle to stop Tulsa RB Shamari Brooks, who has more than 3600 rush yards in his career. 8* Tulsa

8* Under Saints/Bucs (8:20 ET): New Orleans has won six straight regular season meetings over Tampa Bay. But the Saints would gladly trade those six wins in exchange for the last time they lost to the Bucs, which was the Divisional Round of last year’s Playoffs. I had the Saints as a home dog when they upset TB back in Week 8, 36-27 as 3.5 point dogs. But this time it’s a lot harder to like them, not just because the Saints are playing in Tampa (where the Bucs are a perfect 6-0), but because of their own 1-5 slide. 

Now New Orleans did end a five-game losing streak last week, beating the lowly Jets 30-9. But don’t expect them to score that many points again. The Jets are the worst defensive team in the league. It’s a big jump up in class facing a Buccaneers’ defense, which allows only 18.5 PPG at home. A big difference between now and Week 8 is the Saints’ QB situation. They still had Jameis Winston as the starter on Halloween. Now it’s Taysom Hill. The Saints were able to run for 200+ yards last week, but won’t do that here against a Bucs’ defense that is third in the league against the run. 

Tom Brady and company have been a scoring machine at home this year, averaging 37.5 PPG. The team has scored 30 or more in four straight games overall, but needed OT to hit that mark last week vs. Buffalo. The Bucs’ defense looked great for three quarters in shutting Josh Allen in the Bills down. I’ll look past what happened in the fourth quarter as they are facing a much weaker offense this week. But expect the Bucs to struggle to score in this one. The Saints’ defense is very good (only 21.9 PPG allowed). None of New Orleans’ last three games have seen more than 44 total pts scored. 8* Under Saints/Bucs

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Timberwolves have made the playoffs just one time since 2004 (when Kevin Garnett skipped town!) and that was four years ago when they made a first round exit. The Western Conference is shaping up to be pretty weak this season (at least much weaker than usual) and with the play-in round now “being a thing,” 2021-22 seems like a real opportunity for the T’wolves to get into the postseason. They enter Sunday with a 14-15 SU record, good enough for ninth place in the Conference. 

While still a game below .500, the T’wolves have won three straight. They’ve beaten the Nuggets, Blazers and Lakers, all of whom were playoff teams a year ago. Friday was a somewhat convincing 110-92 win over the Lakers here at home. The Lakers were dealing with plenty of COVID-related absences, but still had LeBron James. Taking advantage of Anthony Davis’ absence, Minnesota dominated on the glass with a 61-36 rebounding edge, including 15-1 at the offensive end.

The Mavericks’ last game was a loss to the Lakers (in overtime). They will again be without Luka Doncic tonight as well as several other players because of COVID. The Mavs just really haven’t impressed me this year and are deserved underdogs in this game. Only three teams - OKC, Orlando and Detroit - are averaging fewer points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns (24.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) will be the best player in this game and he’s wearing a T’wolves jersey. 8* Minnesota

8* Sacramento (6:05 ET): Off a huge win in Utah Friday night, San Antonio looks for just their second win streak of the season tonight in the capital city of California. From November 26th through December 4th, the Spurs won four consecutive games. But, as I just alluded to, that is their lone win streak of the season. At no other point have they won consecutive games. They’ve followed up recent wins over Denver and New Orleans with double digit losses to Denver and Charlotte. I’ll look for “usual form” to hold here as this is a rare time that the Spurs are favored on the road. Take the points.

Sacramento is actually one game ahead of San Antonio in the Western Conference standings. This despite the Kings losing four of their previous five games, including a 124-105 setback at the hands of red-hot Memphis on Friday night. While playing extremely short-handed right now (COVID), Sacramento did open up a 15-point lead over the Grizzlies in the first half. They just couldn’t hold it, even though all five starters finished in double figures. 

The Spurs only have five road wins all year and tonight marks just the third time they will be favored away from home. Most will look at the Kings as “sitting ducks” here due to the abundance of unavailable players and their head coach also being out. But I don’t agree with them getting more than a couple points in this situation. San Antonio only won by two on Friday and has been outscored this season. Recently, we’ve seen a lot of short-handed teams win in the NBA. 8* Sacramento

10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): It is looking like a near certainty that Tyler Huntley will be the starting QB here for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson suffered a sprained ankle in last week’s 24-22 loss to the Browns and hasn’t practiced all week. While the loss of Jackson may make Baltimore a “less attractive option” in the minds of many bettors, I am seeing value here on the Ravens as a home dog. Huntley very nearly led his team back from a 24-6 halftime deficit last week. He also guided a 16-13 win at Chicago earlier in the season. Take the points!

Now Green Bay is the top ATS team in the league. They’ve covered 11 of 13 games this year, including a come from behind effort last week against Chicago. Things were not looking good for Packers’ bettors early on last Sunday night as the team trailed at halftime. But they stormed back to win 45-30 and improbably cover the double digit spread. That was at Lambeau though. All three Packers’ losses this season have come on the road - where their scoring average dips to 20.6 PPG. 

Now GB’s road numbers are a little skewed due to a Week 1 loss to the Saints (an outlier performance) and the game they played at Kansas City without Aaron Rodgers. That being said, this is too many points for them to be laying here. This line is a classic overreaction to Jackson’s absence. Jackson is a great player, but the Ravens also have a great defense and special teams. John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS his L12 games as a home underdog with eight outright wins. Baltimore is also 3-0 ATS as ‘dogs this season. Almost all of their games end up close with five of the last six decided by six points or less. Only two teams in history have ever started a NFL season 12-2 ATS. 10* Baltimore

10* Colgate (2:00 ET): Here we go back to the well, playing against Monmouth. The Hawks are a positively stunning 11-0 ATS this season. They are obviously the top spread team in the country. Perhaps most impressive of all is that Monmouth is coming off a six-game stretch on the road where they went 5-1 straight up. They are 9-2 SU on the year, despite playing only two home games. But I view Sunday as a “tricky” spot for the favorites, who have been underdogs in most of their games this season. Take the points! 

Colgate has not been nearly as successful as Monmouth at the betting window. The Raiders are 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games and coming off an 82-64 loss at St. John’s last Sunday. A full week to prepare for this game should help, however. When comparing these two teams’ ATS records, something to be aware of is the fact Colgate has been favored in more games this season. This will be only the 4th time that Colgate has been taking points. They covered the first two times, including an outright win (as 11.5-pt dogs) at Syracuse. Last Sunday’s loss to St. John’s was the only time the Raiders didn’t cover as pups.

Monmouth has played a lot of close games. Eventually, one of them has to not go their way, at least at the pay window. Having played six straight road games over the L3 weeks is something that you have to figure “catches up with them” at some point. The Hawks have failed to score 70 points in four of their last six games. As an underdog, that’s not a problem. But this will be just the third time that Monmouth is favored by more than three points. 10* Colgate

9* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer’s firing had an interesting effect on this number as the Jaguars are now bigger favorites to beat the Texans without their disgraced former head coach. My view is that the Jags are going to come out highly motivated to win this game. Certainly they can’t be any worse than they were under Meyer, whose NFL coaching career will end with a 2-11 WL record. For this first game without Meyer, the Jags probably couldn’t have asked for a more ideal opponent. I’m laying the points! 

There are two teams that I have rated lower than Jacksonville in my own personal power ratings. One of them is the opponent here (the other is the Jets). Houston has a worse point differential than Jacksonville and the same 2-11 SU record. David Culley just feels like a lame-duck coach this season for the Texans, who are down to Davis Mills at QB. The team is 0-7 SU with Mills as the starter after losing 33-13 last week at home to Seattle. The Texans actually struck first in that game and then were thoroughly dominated after that. 

This is a revenge spot for Jacksonville, who lost 37-21 in Houston back in Week 1. It was their seventh straight loss to the Texans, which is quite embarrassing. It’s interesting to note that the Jaguars were favored in the Week 1 matchup. While that proved to be a “bad line,” it looks like we’re getting a bargain on them at home here. Houston has won just once since Week 1. You’ve got to believe the Jaguars’ players will want to win for interim HC Darrell Bevell to prove a point that they are better without Meyer. From the revenge angle to the new coach, lots of motivation here for the home side. 9* Jacksonville

8* Liverpool (11:30 AM ET): COVID-19 has begun to ravage the EPL schedule, but this match between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur is still on. Both sides are top seven in the table and dealing with absences due COVID. Liverpool is second, only one point behind Manchester City, and has the best GD in the EPL right now at +35. The Spurs are down in seventh with 25 points, which is now seven adrift of the Champions League places. As I’ve written before, there’s a large gap between the top three in the table and everyone else. Look for that to be on display Sunday.

Tottenham will be coming off a long layoff as they’ve not been on the pitch since a 3-0 win over bottom of the table Norwich City back on Dec 5. That’s a full two weeks off with three postponements. The Spurs now have two games in hand over virtually all Premier League sides. But a -1 YTD GD tells me they are unlikely to make up the current gap between themselves and the top four. They are even lower in xPts (ranking only 15th!), which indicates there’s been some good fortune in getting to where they’re at. The Spurs’ number of goals scored this season (16) is fourth fewest in the Premier League.

The “rust” Tottenham might be dealing with is one story coming into Sunday. Another is Liverpool’s dominance in the recent history of this fixture. Tottenham has one just one of the last 17 meetings, losing 12. While the Spurs have won their last three EPL matches, it’s been over a year since they won four in a row. Liverpool is a step in quality from the last three sides that Tottenham has beaten. The Reds have also scored a league-leading 48 goals this campaign. Incredibly, after a 3-1 win over Newcastle United on Thursday, Liverpool has a 34-match unbeaten run in the league in the month of December. Thursday’s win at Anfield made it eight straight wins across all competitions, six of those coming in the Premier League. 8* Liverpool

10* Washington (9:05 ET): Utah is very clearly one of the top teams in the NBA right now. I’ve got them rated second in my own personal power rankings, only behind Golden State. But the team that finished first in the Western Conference a season ago saw its eight-game win streak come to an end last night with a 128-126 loss to San Antonio. Now the Jazz must immediately turn around and face the Wizards and they are being asked to lay a big number in the process. I’ll take the points in this one. 

Washington is clearly struggling right now as they’ve won just one of their last eight contests and that was by only three points, in overtime, against a terrible Detroit team. The Wiz did not cover the spread in that win, nor have they covered in any of their last seven losses. But this is still a .500 team (15-15 SU) that’s tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference. You’ve got to figure they’re going to be desperate for a win tonight and while they may not get it, keeping this one within single digits certainly seems like a reasonable goal. 

The situation clearly favors Washington as they were off last night. Now they were blown out, in Phoenix, two nights ago (lost 118-98 as nine-point dogs). But this season has seen the Wizards go 6-2 ATS when off a game where they failed to score 100 points. They are also 19-8 ATS in that very situation the L3 seasons. While the Wiz were blown out by 25 at home by the Jazz last week, they did beat them in BOTH meetings last season. 10* Washington

10* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): Two of the hottest teams in football meet Saturday night and both are coming off byes. I don’t think there’s any denying that the Colts are better than their 7-6 SU overall record. The team ranks seventh in the league in point differential, having outscored the opposition by 88 points. Now I am well aware that New England is not only #1 in the league in that department (+150 point differential), but is also on a 7-0 SU/ATS win streak. But the Colts have been a favorite of “sharp bettors” all season and this is a case where it’s right to fade what is likely to be a very “public dog” (that being the Patriots). 

Remember that Indianapolis started the year at 0-3 SU. Since then, they’ve gone 7-3 with two of the losses coming in overtime (both after blowing big leads) and the other coming by only seven points to the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. Still fresh in everyone’s mind is New England’s win at Buffalo two weeks ago where QB Mac Jones only attempted three passes due to insanely windy conditions. But don’t forget that the Colts went to Buffalo a few weeks ago and absolutely trounced the Bills, 41-15 (as a seven-point underdog). 

As good as the Patriots have looked over the last two months, you’ve got to figure they are “due” to drop at least one game down the stretch. Looking at the remaining four games, this and next week’s home date with Buffalo are easily the two toughest matchups Bill Belichick’s team has left. New England is 6-0 SU on the road this year, but three of those wins came by four points or less. This game means A LOT more to the Colts, who trail the Titans by two games in the AFC South and really cannot afford another loss. The last time we saw them, they beat the Texans 31-0 and allowed only 141 total yards. The Texans are admittedly a horrible team, but a Colts offense (led by RB Taylor) that has struck for 30 or more points in seven of the last eight games will test this Patriots’ defense. 10* Indianapolis

10* Canisius (5:00 ET): Canisius is just 2-9 straight up entering this game, but it’s notable that they are getting double digits here. The reason that’s notable is because the only two games the Golden Griffins have covered this season came as DD dogs. Those covers came at Miami (FL) and St. Bonaventure. This evening marks the first time all season that Canisius is a DD dog at home. They are 0-7 ATS L7 lined games and 0-8 ATS overall this season when NOT getting double digits. But due to the poor ATS record, the oddsmakers are being too generous here. Take the points. 

The team Canisius is hosting, Buffalo, is 6-1 ATS and has just one loss by more than three points (and that was to Michigan). But off a 10-day layoff, the Bulls could be prone for a letdown Saturday afternoon. Prior to the extended time off, UB pulled a minor upset, going to Western Kentucky and winning 77-67 as a three-point dog. Tonight marks the first time that the Bulls are laying points in a “true” road game. Previously, they were favored at neutral sites against SF Austin St (and lost outright) and Illinois State (covered, but also allowed 90 points). 

I realize that, on paper, Buffalo looks to have a rather sizable edge in this matchup. But again, don’t discount the fact that this is a large spread for the Bulls to be laying after such an extended layoff. They are just 3-3 SU away from home this season. This is a local rivalry, which likely means more to Canisius, who has beaten Buffalo just one time since 2014. But none of the previous six meetings were decided by more than 15 points and two of the games went into overtime. 10* Canisius

8* UAB (3:30 ET): I think a lot of people may get caught up in the fact that BYU is ranked #13 in the country. But that ranking is a little generous to say the least. In all due respect to the contingent from Provo, I don’t consider the Cougars to be among the top 40 teams in the country! The SP+ rankings agree with me and also actually have BYU’s Independence Day Bowl opponent, UAB, rated higher! I’m not quite as high on the Blazers, who were champions of C-USA last season, but I do believe they are a live dog and capable of pulling the outright upset here. Take the points.

UAB is no stranger to bowl games as this will be their fourth consecutive season in one. Remember that the football program did not exist the two years prior! Looking at this past regular season, the Blazers very nearly defeated UTSA (who was undefeated at the time) and finished 8-4 SU overall. One of the losses was to Georgia. Their defense is really strong, giving up only 22.4 PPG.and it allowed 14 points or less on five different occasions. It’s hard to run on UAB as they give up only 104 rush yards per game. 

Much will be made of the fact that BYU went 5-0 SU against the Pac 12 during the regular season, including a 26-17 win over Rose Bowl participant Utah (early in the year). But two of those five wins were by four points or less. The Cougars were a little lucky in 2021 to go 4-0 SU in one-score games. UAB has a great running back in DeWayne McBride, but look for the defense is going to keep them in this one. The Blazers have covered four straight and six of their last seven games. 8* UAB

10* Fresno State (2:15 ET): I know that there won’t be a lack of motivation with UTEP, who is making its first bowl appearance since 2014. The Miners have been quite the story here in 2021, going 7-5, just their second winning season since 2005! They won only five games total in Dana Dimel’s first three seasons here and were 0-12 the year before his arrival. But of the 80 teams playing in bowls this year, UTEP is my lowest rated. Not only are they 0-5 SU/ATS L5 bowl appearances, but they went 1-4 SU/ATS vs. bowl teams this season with three of those losses coming by 17 points or more. I just don’t “see it” with this team. 

Now Fresno State does have some issues heading into the New Mexico Bowl, which is probably why the Bulldogs aren’t as large of a favorite here as my power ratings say they ought to be. After not making the Mountain West Conference Championship, they saw HC Kalen DeBoer bolt for the Washington job. Initially, it looked as if QB Jake Haener was going to follow DeBoer, but Haener changed his mind and withdrew from the transfer portal. But he may not get the start Saturday. Interim HC Lee Marks (who was the RB coach under DeBoer) has been “mum” on who the starting QB will be here.

I think the uncertainty over who will start at QB for Fresno State will end up benefiting the Bulldogs. They obviously know who the starter is. But UTEP is “in the dark.” FSU defeated its final two regular season opponents by a combined score of 74-16. They have wins over San Diego State and UCLA and only lost by seven at Oregon. While we aren’t sure what (or who) we’re getting at QB, we do know the Bulldogs’ run defense gives up just 127 yards per game and that the offensive line is very good. UTEP’s offense relies heavily on “the big play” and I don’t see them making enough of those here. 10* Fresno State

8* St. John’s (12:00 ET): The Johnnies snapped a six-game ATS losing streak last Sunday, beating Colgate 82-64 as 7.5-point home chalk. They allowed just 29 points in the 2H, which was Colgate’s season-low for a half. But it’s the offense that usually makes the headlines for the Red Storm. Led by Julian Champagnie, the team comes in averaging 85.2 PPG and that number is way too much for an offensively inept Pitt team to compete here. I’m laying the points in this matchup of former conference rivals. 

These programs have not met since 2012-13, when Pitt left the Big East for the ACC. St. John’s probably wishes they could face Pitt more often, at least in recent times. Going back to last year, the Panthers are just 5-15 SU their L20 games. That includes a 3-7 start to this season as they’ve suffered double digit losses to the likes of The Citadel and UMBC. Last time out, the Panthers fell at home to Monmouth, 56-52 as a 1-point home dog. They trailed in that game by as many as 17 points. 

With the start of conference play looming, normally I might be a bit “gun-shy” about laying so many points. But St. John’s full focus will be on this game after it was announced Monday’s Big East opener (vs. Seton Hall) has been cancelled due to COVID (outbreak is with SH) and the Red Storm will be awarded a win via forfeit! The Red Storm are simply too strong at the offensive end for a team like Pitt that is last in the ACC in both scoring (60.5 PPG) and FG% (41.7). St. John’s likes to play fast (9th in adjusted tempo), which is also a problem for Pitt. 8* St. John’s

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): The Kings pulled off a much-needed win on Wednesday, beating the slumping Wizards by a score of 119-105. Sacramento shot better than they have in awhile, making 54.9% of their FG attempts. Despite being short-handed and without their coach (COVID protocols), the Kings used a big 4Q (outscored the Wiz 35-19) to pull away. There is a concern that this game may not get played due to the Kings’ COVID outbreak. But if it is played, I like them plus the points. 

I have been positively STUNNED over how Memphis has played without Ja Morant. They’ve won 9 of 10 games without their superstar. On Wednesday, the Grizzlies went to Portland and held the Blazers to 37.8% shooting in a 113-103 win. Their first game without Morant was, ironically enough, against Sacramento. The Grizz won 128-101 as a four-point favorite, but that was at home. The Kings were also coming off a triple overtime win over the Lakers, so it was a bad spot. 

Certainly, I acknowledge that the COVID outbreak doesn’t exactly make this the most desirable spot to take Sacramento. But they are at home where they’ve won three straight and - generally speaking - are a much better team. Memphis, despite a 7-5 SU record on the road, has been outscored in those games. I just can’t see them continuing to win like this without Morant. The Kings had a horrible shooting night when they last faced Memphis. Expect them to shoot a whole lot better tonight. 10* Sacramento

10* San Diego State (10:00 ET): Let’s head to the West Coast for tonight’s 10* offering. This game between St. Mary’s and San Diego State is being played in Phoenix, AZ as part of the Jerry Colangelo Classic. I like the spot for SDSU; not just because they’re getting points, but also because they come in well-rested. The last time they took the court was 12/8 when they defeated CS-Fullerton by a score of 66-56. 

These are two defensive-minded teams. St. Mary’s gives up only 57.6 PPG while SDSU isn’t too far behind that, allowing only 59.2 PPG. The Aztecs have lost only three times this season -  to BYU, USC and Michigan. All three of those teams have spent time in the Top 25 this year. I just don’t see St. Mary’s as being quite at that level. Something to keep in mind is that the defensive numbers would be even more even if you exclude the Gaels holding Stanislaus State, a non-board team, to 39 points on Tuesday. 

St. Mary’s has actually played two games since SDSU last took the court. Besides beating up on a “little guy” earlier this week, the Gaels also crushed UCSB 80-59 last weekend. But that was at home. Note the previous two games, both on the road, saw SMU struggle. They barely got by Utah State (won by 2) and then lost by 16 to Colorado State. Notable is that both of those teams hail from the Mountain West. I look for the Aztecs to win a low-scoring game on Friday. 10* San Diego State

8* Over Bucks/Pelicans (8:05 ET): Milwaukee had seven players missing from the lineup on Wednesday, one of them being Giannis Antetokounmpo. But they still defeated Indiana 114-99 for their 13th win in the last 16 games. Still short-handed, the reigning NBA Champs now head to the Big Easy to face a Pelicans team that is at the opposite end of the standings. However, NO is off a very exciting win where Devonte’ Graham made a 61-foot shot at the buzzer to beat Oklahoma City 113-110 on Wednesday. 

The Pelicans’ season got off to a terrible 3-16 start, but they have battled back to win six of their last 11 games including the thriller 48 hours ago. Zion Williamson hasn’t played a minute this season. As for the catalyst of the recent “turnaround,” you’ve got to point in the direction of Brandon Ingram, who averages a team-high 23.4 points per game after averaging 27.9 over the last eight games. 

The Bucks could get Kris Middleton back for tonight’s game, but regardless of that I like this game to go Over the total. We saw what Jrue Holliday can do on Wednesday when he scored 26 points and had a season-high 14 assists. Something to keep in mind with all these absences going around the NBA is that teams typically still find a way to score. New Orleans is on a 13-3 Over run when facing teams with winning records. The Over is 23-9 the L32 meetings between these teams, including 5-1 L6 here in NO. 8* Over Bucks/Pelicans

8* NC State (6:30 ET): This is a neutral site game, being played in Charlotte, NC. Taking a look at NC State, whose three losses have been to Oklahoma State, Louisville and Purdue, I’m not sure they should be the underdog here. I realize they are just 2-8 ATS, but the Wolfpack have gone off as the favorite for most of those games. They are 1-6 ATS as a favorite so far this season, including 0-6 when laying seven or more. But this time, we don’t have to worry about laying any points, do we? 

Richmond is on a three-game win streak, having beaten Wofford, Northern Iowa and Toledo. Prior to that though, the Spiders had lost four of six. It was a narrow win on Sunday at home over Toledo, 72-69, where the Spiders did not cover the 9.5-point spread. In fact, they scored a season-low 24 points in the 1st half and found themselves trailing by 17! Honestly, I have no idea how Richmond was able to come back and win that game.

As for NC State, they took Purdue to OT on Sunday. It was a crushing defeat considering the Wolfpack never trailed in regulation to a team that was ranked #1 in the country at the time. NC State’s only other two losses were both by six points or less, so they’ve really yet to play a “bad game” all season. This despite not shooting the ball all that well. But the Wolfpack are top five in the country in FT attempts (23.9 per game) and are an excellent offensive rebounding team. Considering that NC State probably should have won its last game while Richmond should have probably lost theirs, I’ll call for things to “even out” here on Friday. Take the points. 8* NC State

10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): A win tonight would give the Chargers a season sweep of the Chiefs and thus a “leg up” in the race for the division title. A Chargers win would also mean both teams are 9-5 SU. So you can see how important this one is. Either LA falls two games back with a split of the season series, or they are even with a season sweep. I know that the Chiefs - 6-0 SU L6 games and 4-0 ATS L4 - have been playing well of late. But so have the Chargers, who have scored 37 or more points in three of the last four games. 

Those offensive numbers will certainly be tested tonight by a Chiefs defense that has allowed exactly nine points in three consecutive games. But KC has not exactly been facing the top offensive teams during this stretch. Twice they’ve beaten the Raiders and other wins came against the Broncos, Giants and Rodgers-less Packers. Holding Dallas to just nine points WAS impressive. But I can’t see a similar defensive effort taking place against these Chargers, which has Justin Herbert and two receivers that will go over 1,000 yards this season. 

The Chiefs are surprisingly still being outgained this season on a per play basis. While it was back in Week 3 and Kansas City turned it over four times, the Chargers scored 30 in the first meeting and that was when they weren’t playing as well. The Chargers’ last three wins have been by an average of 13 PPG, but even that’s misleading as they led by as many as 17, 24 and 30 in those respective games. LA is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog. 10* LA Chargers

10* Over Knicks/Rockets (8:05 ET): Houston had been surprising a lot of people of late, winning 8 of 10 games straight up while also going 8-1-1 ATS in the process. However, last night they ran into an even hotter Cleveland team, who slapped them with a 124-89 beatdown. That was more reminiscent of the Rockets’ 1-16 start to the season, which saw them get held under 100 points nine times. But I’m expecting a better effort tonight at the offensive end against the Knicks.

New York was one of last year’s surprise teams. But as I’ve previously written, they’ve slipped considerably to start 2021-22. Last season saw them lead the league in 3PT% defense, which was not going to be repeated this year and sure enough opponents are hitting 35.4% against the Knicks from behind the arc. Last time out, NY saw history made at their expense with Steph Curry setting a new NBA record for most career three-pointers made. The Knicks lost that game 105-96 as they could only shoot 36.1% from the field.

I am expecting both teams’ offensive numbers to pick up tonight. Houston is pretty bad defensively, giving up 113.0 PPG for the year. Three of their last four opponents have scored more than 120. So you’ve got to like the Knicks’ chances of putting up a high number this evening. Julius Randle had a 25-point second half vs. the Warriors, so he's the player to watch. I know the Rockets are playing short-handed (top four scorers were all out last night), but this is the NBA and teams almost always find ways to score. The Over is 6-0 when Houston is in the second night of a back to back. 10* Over Knicks/Rockets

8* Tulsa (8:00 ET): What a strange season it’s been so far for Alcorn State. The Braves are 1-8 straight up but 8-1 against the spread. So while they're losing, it’s almost never by as much as the oddsmakers anticipate. I think that interesting dichotomy ends tonight with a visit to Tulsa. Note that there have been only two spreads shorter than this one in Alcorn State games this season. One of those was the lone game they failed to cover, an 85-64 loss at Tulane as 13-point underdogs. By the way, this will also be the 10th consecutive “true” road game for Alcorn State and they aren’t even close to being done with their “travels.” 

Alcorn State’s last three games have resulted in losses by 21, 32 and 19 points. So they’re losing by an average of 24 PPG. The alma mater of the late, great Steve “Air” McNair averages only 60 PPG and they haven’t topped 64 in any of their last eight contests. In terms of efficiency, they are in the bottom 30 in the country at the offensive end. Earlier, I mentioned the cacophony of road games that the Braves have been playing this season. They’ve still got SIX more to go after this one, including a visit to #1 Baylor next Monday, which may have the player’s attention more so than this game does. 

Tulsa isn’t going to pass up this opportunity to beat up on a road-weary opponent. The Golden Hurricane just ended a three-game losing streak last Saturday, beating Southern Illinois 69-65 as a three-point favorite. I know there have been some disappointing showings as a favorite previously, but Tulsa also has pulled upset wins over Oregon State and Rhode Island. They hold teams to a very respectable average (63.3 PPG) here at home and with Alcorn State shooting just 38.0% on the year, I feel that this is going to be one of the Golden Hurricane’s better defensive efforts all season. Thus, lay the points. 8* Tulsa

8* Under Hornets/Spurs (8:35 ET): San Antonio has a real “imbalance” when it comes to Over/Unders at home vs. on the road. The Over is 10-1 so far in Spurs’ home games. But when the team hits the road, they are 10-1 Under. They are at home tonight, facing a Charlotte team whose games - on average - are the highest scoring in the NBA (231.5 PPG). This has led the oddsmakers to set the highest O/U line for any Spurs’ game this season. While there is an inherent risk playing the Under with the Hornets team, I believe that’s the way to go tonight.

While San Antonio has the highest Over rate in the league at home, Charlotte is #2. But this is obviously a road game for the Hornets and the Over is more “modest” 9-8 when they are away. The Hornets had gone Over in eight straight games overall before losing 120-96 in Dallas on Monday. What’s key to note with Charlotte right now is that they have been playing short-handed due to COVID protocols. Initially, they stayed competitive, but then we saw what happened last time out.

After a poor start to the season, the Spurs have been better of late. They are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in their L9 games. They last played on Sunday when they turned in a solid defensive effort, holding New Orleans to 97 points on 42.6% shooting. That was just the second Spurs’ home game to go Under this season. The fact this is the highest O/U line for any San Antonio game this year is notable. Will their starting five combine to score 88 points again, as they did in the last game? Unlikely. 8* Under Hornets/Spurs

8* Indiana (8:00 ET): The Pacers need this game more than the Bucks. Indiana (despite a positive point differential for the year) currently sits in 13th place in the East with a 12-15 overall record. There are six teams ahead of them with worse YTD point differentials. A case can definitely be made that the Pacers "ought" to be higher in the standings right now.

Milwaukee is doing well (18-11, 3rd in the East) but they will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight (COVID-19). Giannis isn't the only unavailable player. Six Bucks players have been ruled out for this game and that doesn't even include Kris Middleton (knee), who is listed as questionable. It's going to be a real "skeleton crew" out there tonight for the Bucks.

This just seems like the perfect opportunity for Indiana to end its 0-6 ATS run in Milwaukee?  8* Indiana

10* Over Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss (8:30 ET): Though the last six Ole Miss games have all stayed Under the total, I like this one to go Over. The Rebels are coming off back to back horrendous shooting efforts. Despite beating Memphis 67-63 on December 4th, the Rebels shot just 35.3% in that game. Then, in Atlanta over the weekend, it was a disastrous performance with 27.4% shooting in a 71-48 loss to Western Kentucky. But now Ole Miss is back in Oxford (where they are 5-0 and averaging 78.0 PPG). Expect the scoring to increase in this one. 

The Rebels better be scoring tonight. Because they are facing a Middle Tennessee team that comes in averaging 80.1 PPG. The Blue Raiders are 8-2 straight up and there’s been just one game all season where they failed to score at least 71 points. In the last game, MTSU went to Tenn-Martin and came out on top 84-75. That was actually the second win over the Skyhawks this month. They won 73-61 in Murfreesboro back on the 1st. In between, there was a loss at Murray State where the Blue Raiders surrendered 93 points (no overtime!). 

Neither of these teams are all that efficient on offense, but Middle Tennessee likes to “play fast” and thus there should be plenty of possessions in tonight’s contest. Again, the real key is that I expect Ole Miss to shoot MUCH better than they have in their last two games. The Over is 5-0 the last five times Middle Tennessee has been an underdog, four of those games coming on the road. A huge key to the Blue Raiders’ success is that they get to the free throw line 22 times per game, more than any other Conference USA squad. 10* Over Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss

6* RB Leipzig (2:30 ET): At the outset of my analysis for Tuesday’s *10* Bundesliga Game of the Week play (a winner!), I discussed the surprisingly small gap in points that existed between the two sides. The side I went with (Mainz) was only three points ahead of its opponent (Hertha Berlin) going into matchday 16. That shocked me given Mainz’s superior form this season as well as their vastly better YTD goal differential. Thus I was not really all that shocked to see my side prevail 4-0 on Tuesday. 

I see some real similarities between yday’s selection and this one here on RB Leipzig. The perennial Bundesliga currently sits only 9th in the table with 21 points. That’s only five points ahead of Wednesday’s opponent, Augsburg, who you’ll typically find sitting near the bottom of the table. This season is no different for Fuggerstadter as they are 16th in the table, a place which would mean the relegation playoff at season’s end. The fact that Leipzig is only five points ahead of them is a stunner, especially when you look at the respective goal differentials (Leipzig is +10, Augsburg is -9). 

Now we all know the reason why Leipzig is currently a mid-table side. They’ve yet to win a single away match this season. The only other side in the Bundesliga that can say that is relegation-bound Greuther Furth. But with a new manager on the sideline (Domenico Tedesco), Leipzig ran out to a 4-1 win (at home) LW over Gladbach. Now is the time for that elusive first away win as the oddsmakers clearly expect it and so do I. Augsburg is not only an inferior opponent, but one that is dealing with absences in the starting XI. 6* RB Leipzig

10* Portland (10:05 ET): This game is on TNT. Phoenix comes in off a loss, just its second in the last 22 games, as they fell 111-95 at the Clippers last night. It should be noted that it was also the Suns’ second loss in the last four games (after a franchise-record 18-game win streak) and second straight loss on the road. (They were beaten 118-96 at Golden State on 12/3). The Suns should obviously be respected, but I think they’re “due” to drop another one tonight in Portland. 

It should be noted that the loss to the Warriors was the last time Phoenix found itself in the second night of a back to back. The same situation is a whole lot worse tonight because the team is without both Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton. Without rest, the Suns have NOT performed well this season, going 1-4 ATS and being outscored by 7.6 PPG. While the Suns are a top three team in my power ratings, I don’t think they’re quite as good as either the Warriors or Jazz. Point differential & net efficiency backs my assertion up, so look for the Suns to fall behind those two aforementioned Western Conference powers in the coming days/weeks. 

The Blazers are hoping to avoid what would be a fifth consecutive home loss here. Such a streak is rather odd considering they were 10-1 SU to start the year at the Moda Center. Damian Lillard is back and had 24 points with a season-high 11 rebounds in Sunday’s 116-111 loss to Minnesota. I expect Lillard to shoot better tonight than he did vs. the T’wolves (5 of 17). But the most convincing thing here about Portland is that they’ve already wiped the court with Phoenix once this season, winning 134-105 back on Oct 23rd. That was here at home. It won’t be that lopsided this time, but take the points. 10* Portland

8* Houston (8:00 ET): The 14th ranked Cougars are coming off a one-point loss at Alabama (who is now the #6 ranked team in the country), but I still believe Kelvin Sampson’s team to be one of the finest in the entire country. Remember that this was a Final Four team last season. My power ratings still consider them to be a top four team right now. Houston’s only two losses have been by a combined three points and it could certainly be argued they were the victim of a bad call in Tuscaloosa Saturday night. On the final possession, it looked as if Alabama got away with goaltending. 

So now the Cougars return home to face Louisiana. Expect them to take no mercy on their visitors. The Ragin Cajuns enter this game with a 5-4 SU record and are also off a loss, 78-69 to Louisiana Tech. That loss came despite a career game from Jordan Brown (30 points) and La Tech shooting just 19% from three-point range. I think it also bears mentioning that Louisiana lost outright (as a 14.5-point favorite) earlier in the year to Jackson State. They’ve been outscored by an average of 18.3 points in the L3 road games and none of those three opponents were as strong as this one is. 

Look for Houston to feast off turnovers in this game. The defense forces a TO on 25.2% of all possessions, which is top 25 in the country. Meanwhile, Louisiana is among the sloppiest teams in the country, turning it over on 22 percent of all offensive possessions. The Cougars are 6-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 33.5 PPG. Off the loss to Alabama, where they shot poorly, Houston will have a “take no prisoners” approach to this game. Lay the points. 8* Houston

8* Over Warriors/Knicks (7:35 ET): So, it is a virtual lock that tonight Steph Curry will break Ray Allen’s NBA record for most three-pointers made. Curry could not have asked for a bigger stage as the Warriors will visit Madison Square Garden to play the Knicks on TNT. With history about to be made, expect the Warriors (Curry in particular) to come out firing. As a team, they were just 8 of 30 from three-point range in last night’s 102-100 win over Indiana. Curry was 5 of 15 and now needs only three more threes to surpass Allen. He’ll make a lot more than three tonight as it should be a big offensive night. 

The Knicks were a surprise team last year, finishing 41-31, good for 4th place in the Western Conference. A big reason for their success was leading the league in 3-pt FG% defense. They haven’t been nearly as good this year at defending the three-point arc and as a result, the Knicks enter tonight’s showdown with a 12-15 SU record and are just 12th in the Eastern Conference. Having lost three straight and six of their last seven games, there’s much work to be done in the Big Apple. 

I do think the home team will have a bigger offensive night than expected here. Golden State was fortunate that Indiana shot only 23.3% from three last night. New York, who shoots 36.0% from three for the year, should do a lot better than that. I know the Knicks are off B2B sub-100 point games and the Warriors have been an “Under machine” thus far. (Under is 20-7 in all GS games). But even if the Knicks only score 100 here, I think it’s reasonable to expect 110+ from the Warriors and that means the game goes Over. 8* Over Warriors/Knicks

8* LA Monroe (7:30 ET): Kind of “scratching my head” here as to why LA Monroe is getting double digits here. I’m assuming that the blowout losses the Warhawks suffered early in the season are still on the oddsmakers’ mind. But those were to the likes of LSU and Auburn, two of the best teams in the entire country. Here they are facing a SF Austin team that has fallen off a bit from the years (2014-18) where they were an NCAA Tournament regular. Even though they are 7-2 SU, the Lumberjacks shouldn’t be laying this many points tonight. 

This is a significant season in Nacogdoches as SFA (along with three other Texas schools) moved from the Southland Conference to the WAC. The move came on the heels of the program having to vacate some 100+ wins from its “heyday” due to eligibility errors. As the season moves on, it will be interesting to see how the Lumberjacks perform in their new conference. They’ve yet to play a single WAC game and the majority of their opponents have been “also-rans” (including three non-DI opponents). SFA did just beat Liberty 61-53, as 2.5-point dog, over the weekend. 

But I think that minor upset should result in a bit of a letdown tonight. SFA was able to defeat Liberty thanks to much better shooting from three-point range (53.3% to 22.2%) and a significant edge in FT attempts. They can’t count on that happening again. LA Monroe has built up some confidence with three consecutive wins and the Warhawks now average 81.3 PPG, tied for 32nd most in the country! My power ratings indicate this number should be a LOT lower and I’ll trust those numbers by taking the points. 8* LA Monroe

10* Yale (7:00 ET): The big “story” coming into this game is that Monmouth is a perfect 10-0 against the spread to start the season. What makes that start all the more remarkable is that all but two of the contests have been “true” road games. Only twice have the Hawks lost straight up  - by two at Charlotte and by five at St. John’s. So, no matter what way you slice it, it’s been an incredible start by the MAAC contingent. But you know that eventually they are going to fail to cover a spread. I believe tonight is that night. This will be Monmouth’s sixth straight game on the road (second in three days) and they are facing a team that was the preseason favorite to win its conference. Take the points here. 

Now, with a 6-6 SU record, Yale has failed to live up to its advanced billing. The Bulldogs have dropped a couple close ones, losing by three to Southern Utah and by four to Stony Brook, but in their five games as underdogs they’ve lost four times. Now some of those were against Top 25 teams, like Seton Hall and Auburn. Yale also had to travel to face a good Vermont team. In the most recent game, the Bulldogs faced Iona (another MAAC team) and lost 91-77. Nevertheless, I still think this team is better than its record and will show why they were the preseason choice to win the Ivy League. 

With Monmouth, there has to be a concern about them “running out of gas” at some point. Again, tonight marks their sixth straight game on the road, a stretch which goes all the way back to the end of November. They outlasted Pitt on Sunday, winning 56-52, thanks to a huge first half. Pitt missed all seven of its three point attempts in the 1H and finished the game with a 34.0 overall FG%. Yale will shoot better than that as they are 46.6% for the season at home, including 38.5% from three. The Bulldogs, who are 7-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points in their last game, also average 82.6 PPG on their own court. They’ve lost B2B games just one time this year. 10* Yale

10* Mainz 05 (2:30 ET): Believe it or not, these two sides are separated by just three points in the Bundesliga table. That seems crazy to me as I think a rather massive “chasm” exists between the top eight and the rest of the field in this year’s German top flight. Mainz currently sits in 8th place with 21 points, but they are even higher on xPts and I think a threat to challenge to finish fourth (in what should be a wide open race). Having displayed strong form on the pitch at home all season, Mainz should get the full three points on Tuesday. 

Hertha Berlin certainly seemed to benefit from the “new manager bounce” over the weekend as they beat Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 in Tayfun Korkut’s debut on the sidelines. However, that was a bottom two side Hertha defeated on Saturday. They are actually tied with Bielefeld for the second worst goal differential in the Bundesliga (-12) and I’ve tabbed this side as one that is quite likely to find itself finishing 16th at the end of the season, which would mean they’d be in the relegation playoff. 

I think a second straight win for Hertha is out of the question here. That would draw them level with Mainz, which seems absurd given the season-long form displayed by the respective sides. Mainz has suffered just one defeat in its last nine meetings with Hertha. Yes, Mainz did lose on Sunday, but that was to Bayern Munich away and they actually had an early 1-0 lead. This is their best start to a Bundesliga season in over a decade and it continues here. 10* Mainz 05

10* Under Wizards/Nuggets (9:05 ET): After a brief stop back home, the Wizards are back out on the road Monday to start what will be a six-game trip that takes them to X-Mas. Saturday’s return home did not go well as the Wiz lost 123-98 to the Jazz. That was their fourth loss in the last five games and fifth in the last seven. Believe it or not, Washington was actually up 51-50 at the half. But their defensive effort over the final 24 minutes left a lot to be desired and it was the fifth Over in the last six games for the Wiz. 

Denver is on a 10-1 Over run. Their scoring has been way up of late as they’ve averaged 113.6 points the last five games. At the same time, the Nuggets have also allowed 111.4 PPG those last five contests. However, all of their games this month have been on the road. This will be Denver’s 1st home game since 11/26. What’s notable about this is that the Nuggets allow only 98.7 PPG. I also expect their recent shooting to “cool off” after such a long road trip. 

Denver only scores 103.5 PPG at home. So this O/U line is much higher than the combined average number of points scored here at the Pepsi Center this season, which is 202.2 per game. Washington only averages 102.7 PPG on the road. Their number of points allowed has gone up recently, but for the season the Wizards still are allowing only 107.4 PPG. Kyle Kuzma (COVID list) won’t play for Washington tonight while Denver is dealing with multiple absences. 10* Under Wizards/Nuggets

10* Oklahoma State (8:00 ET): After a 6-1 start to their season, Oklahoma State has dropped two straight games, both as home favorites. They lost 60-51 to Wichita State and 77-71 to Xavier. In both instances, the Cowboys inability to make shots doomed them. They missed their final nine FG attempts vs. Wichita State, ending up at just 37.5% for the game. Against Xavier, the Pokes ran into a 2-3 matchup zone and that really slowed them down. The L2 games have seen OSU go a combined 13 of 47 (27.6%) from three-point range. Having had more than a week off, look for them to shoot better tonight against Cleveland State here in Stillwater. Lay the points. 

Now I know it may seem risky to lay double digits to a Cleveland State team that has won its last six games. But the Vikings, co-regular season champs in the Horizon League last season, haven’t had to leave campus in quite a while. They’ve played just one “true” road game all season and that was the opener, a 69-59 loss to BYU. CSU then lost its next game, 67-56 to Ohio U, giving them an 0-2 start to the year. They’ve since managed to beat up on some lesser competition, but this will easily be their toughest opponent to date. 

In four of the last five games, Cleveland State has managed to shoot 50% or better from the field. Don’t look for that to happen tonight. OSU has held opponents to 37.3% for the year so far and is 13th in the country (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. Both teams have big upcoming games (CSU plays Duke next, OSU plays Houston). But the home team, coming off B2B losses, should be more focused tonight and will shoot the basketball a lot better than they have of late. Look for a “statement game” from the Cowboys. 10* Oklahoma State

10* Portland (9:05 ET): Both these teams have been struggling mightily as of late. The Blazers have lost four in a row, all by double digits, while Minnesota has lost five in a row with the last three defeats coming by an average of 20 PPG. So something is going to have to give Sunday night in the Pacific Northwest. Injuries aside, my power ratings say Portland should be a solid favorite in this spot. With the chance that Damian Lillard could return to the lineup tonight, my money is on the home team. 

Portland has lost its last three home games. However, there’s no denying the fact this is a much better team at home than on the road. The Blazers fell to 1-11 SU away from home with a 104-94 loss at Golden State on Wednesday. But they are still 10-4 SU here at the Moda Center where their number of points scored rises to 111.7 PPG and their number of points allowed drops to 106.9 PPG. The home court advantage seems especially valuable for tonight as Minnesota has dropped eight straight here in Portland. 

Lillard could return and the Blazers are at home. That’s two reasons to like them. Another is the amount of time off they’ve had between games. For the first time this year, Portland will be taking the court with three days of rest. Minnesota last played on Friday when they trailed by as many as 30 at home vs. Cleveland. Defensively, the T’wolves are a mess right now having allowed 110 or more points in seven of their last eight games. Their last three losses were all at home. On the road, they allow even more PPG. 10* Portland

9* Chicago (8:20 ET): Going total contrarian on this one as Green Bay is the first double digit favorite in a Sunday Night game this season. It’s somewhat rare to see a DD fave in these primetime matchups, at least on SNF where it’s happened only eight times the previous decade. Those eight favorites went just 2-6 ATS. As bad as the Bears have looked this season, I can’t help but think this is an inflated number. At least Justin Fields is back at QB. Yes, I’m taking the points here. There’s always a sense of “pride” in these division games and I don’t see Chicago just “rolling over” in this one. 

Aaron Rodgers was not afraid to make his feelings known in the last meeting between these teams. “I own you” is what Rodgers told the Soldier Field faithful following a 24-14 win back in Week 6. First off, note that win was “only” by 10 points (less than the spread here). Secondly, might Rodgers’ comments come back to bite him? You’ve got to think the Bears will at least be motivated after being disrespected like that. Total yardage and first downs were actually pretty close in Chicago back October 17th. 

The Bears have just one win since losing to the Packers two months ago, but last week they actually outgained Arizona only to be undone by four turnovers. They also finished with a 26-14 edge in first downs! Fields definitely has a higher ceiling than “turnover machine” Andy Dalton. The Packers may be 10-2 ATS overall (including 5-0 at Lambeau), but they are due to drop a game at the betting window. 9* Chicago

8* NY Giants (4:05 ET): A change in playcallers has failed to provide any kind of spark for the struggling Giants’ offense - at least so far. Freddie Kitchens replaced Jason Garrett as the new OC two weeks ago, but the G-Men have scored a grand total of 22 points (including just one TD) since the change. They were held to season lows in points, total yards and time of possession last week against Miami. It doesn’t help that Daniel Jones is out because of a neck injury. But I think New York may surprise you this week, even with backup Mike Glennon at QB. This team has typically been reliable in the role of underdog. Take the points.

The Chargers are off an impressive 41-22 win at Cincinnati, but they strike me as the kind of team that should never be laying this many points. Note that they nearly blew all of a 24-0 lead last week before pulling away late. Prior to that, the team had covered just one of five games with the two SU wins coming by three and four points. QB Justin Herbert will be without his top receiver this week as Keenan Allen has landed on the COVID-19 list. Coming off the surprisingly big win over the Bengals and with a huge division showdown vs. the Chiefs on deck, this is a tricky spot for Los Angeles. 

The Giants, as alluded to above, have done well in the past as a road underdog. They are 9-4 ATS in that role under HC Joe Judge and 19-7 ATS L26 going back further than that. The Chargers aren’t just 1-4 ATS L5 as favorites; they’ve never been more than a 6.5-point favorite in any game this season. They’ve got the worst homefield advantage in the league and are 5-13-1 ATS L19 as home chalk. LA’s YTD point differential is still negative while the Giants are outscored by only 5.2 PPG. I think the Giants’ offense can find success here as the Chargers’ D still ranks 31st against the run and 31st on third downs. 8* NY Giants

8* UMKC (3:00 ET): It would seem as if the oddsmakers are underrating UMKC right now. I had them on Friday, as my *10* Game of the Week, when they held off Green Bay for a 64-55 win and cover as 8.5-point favorites. I definitely had to sweat the cover, but let it be known that the Roos were up by as many as 17 points in the second half. The fact that the game ended up being closer “than it should have been” actually works in our favor here as we can again grab UMKC at a discounted price. 

Here, the Roos are facing a SIU-Edwardsville team that is 3-6 SU and has not won B2B games at any point this season. The fact SIU-Edwardsville is off a win here makes them an attractive fade on Sunday. The Cougars played arguably their best game on Wednesday, beating IPFW 80-59 as a 2-point home underdog. They jumped on the Mastodons from the start, taking a 46-29 lead. But SIU Edwardsville has yet to play two good games in a row. After their previous two wins, they’ve gone out and lost by double digits both times. 

One of those losses was to St. Thomas, a non-DI school! The other was a 25-point loss at Bradley last Saturday. This issue of not being able to follow up on a win has persisted for a while now with SIU-Edwardsville as they are 0-7 ATS off their previous seven SU win! As for UMKC, they are now a perfect 5-0 ATS their L5 games as a favorite and 6-0 ATS their last six games vs. teams that have losing records. A reminder that the Roos have already gone to Missouri and won this year. 8* UMKC

10* Carolina (1:00 ET): The Panthers’ 3-0 SU/ATS start is now a distant memory as they are 5-7 SU/ATS coming out of the bye. This is a team that’s finished with just five wins each of the last two seasons. If they want to beat that number in 2021, this might be their last chance to do so. That’s because the final four weeks of the season will see Carolina face Buffalo, Tampa Bay twice and New Orleans. Three of those games are on the road. Given that upcoming schedule and the fact that (now former) OC Joe Brady was dismissed during the bye week, I’m expecting an “inspired effort” here from the Panthers. 

Atlanta may have the same 5-7 SU record as Carolina, but I’d argue the Falcons are a significantly worse football team. Point differential certainly paints that picture as Atlanta has been outscored this season by 116 points. Carolina is only -17 in point differential. While the Panthers are fresh off a bye, the Falcons are playing for an eighth straight week. Last week marked the Dirty Birds’ fifth double digit loss of the season. This team is actually ranked dead last in the league in DVOA and struggles in all three phases of the game. The bottom line is that my power ratings say Carolina should be laying closer to SIX points on Sunday. 

I took the Panthers in the first meeting of the season, which they won 19-13 in Atlanta as 2.5-point dogs. They ended up outgaining the Falcons 332-213 thanks to a substantial edge in the ground game. Carolina ran for 200+ yards that day. While they no longer have RB Christian McCaffery (out for year) at their disposal, that’s okay. McCaffery didn’t play in that first matchup either. It was Chubba Hubbard leading the way. From Weeks 4-8, Hubbard was second in the NFL in rush attempts and ninth in yards. The Panthers also now have Cam Newton playing QB. The Falcons’ offense doesn’t run the ball well and the Panthers are fifth in the league in pass defense. Specifically, they’re very good at defending tight ends, so I’d expect Kyle Pitts (two catches, 13 yards in 1st meeting) to not have a big day. Lay the short number. 10* Carolina

8* Houston (1:00 ET): I understand that few, if any, want to touch the Texans right now, let alone when they have Davis Mills quarterbacking. But are we really convinced that Seattle should be laying this many points on the road, against anyone? I guess this will be the test. The Seahawks are off a 30-23 win over San Francisco last week as 2.5-point dogs. But that was at home and they were aided by both a 73-yard TD on a fake punt and a safety. The Seahawks are 2-0 vs. the 49ers this year, but 2-8 SU against the rest of their schedule. Last week was just their second win since Week 4. I’m taking the points. 

Just how odd is it to see a 4-8 SU team favored by seven or more on the road? Well, per ESPN Stats & Info, Seattle is the first team since 1966 with a win percentage of .333 or worse to be laying seven or more on the road in the month of December! Also, keep in mind the fact that the Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS their last five tries as a favorite and have also lost outright four times. They are 1-7 ATS in their L8 games as a road favorite going back to last year. 

I’m not going to look you in the eye and tell you that Mills is good. But he’s no worse than Tyrod Taylor has been at QB for Houston. Before getting steamrolled 31-0 by a good Colts team last week, the Texans previous three games had all been decided by single digits. They beat the Titans 22-13 on the road. The two losses were by seven and eight points. Just “hold your nose” and take the points here as I don’t think a defense that gives up nearly 400 YPG and just lost Jamal Adams for the season should be laying this many points. 8* Houston

10* Union Berlin (9:00 ET): You HAVE to play against Greuther Furth at this price, right? Their return to the Bundesliga has resulted in one draw and 13 losses as it is looking painfully obvious this will be a “one and done” return to the German top flight. Incredibly, Greuther Furth has lost its last 12 matches while conceding 39 goals and scoring only 10 of their own. This is easily the worst side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues. 

As for Union Berlin, a win Sunday would lift them into a fourth place tie. With only three losses this season, FCUB is well positioned to make a run at the Champions League for next season. Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are the two locks for the top four, but the other two spots are very much wide open. Expect Leipzig to make a run, but as of right now Union Berlin is two points ahead of them after a 2-1 victory last week. 

Adding to the favorite’s motivation is the fact that they just had their Europa Conference League run come to an end midweek. They will want to waste no time getting back on track and couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to do so against. Furth is hopeless right now, having conceded 13 goals in their last two matches alone. They were beaten 7-1 by Leverkusen last week. 10* Union Berlin

8* Dustin Poirier (11:50 ET): This fight is scheduled for five rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs). It is for the title with Charles Oliveira (31-8 overall, 19-8 in UFC) defending against Dustin Poirier (28-6, 20-5 UFC). It’s a somewhat “rare” situation in that the challenger is the favorite, but that’s not really surprising here as the champion remains a relative “unknown” while the challenger is off B2B high-profile victories over Conor McGregor. This is one instance of me agreeing with the public sentiment. 

I cashed in on both Poirier-McGregor fights in 2021. The first time, I had Under 2.5 rounds as Poirier knocked out McGregor at 2:32 in Round 2. For the second go around, I took Poirier and that fight was stopped after the first round due to a gruesome leg injury sustained by McGregor. It’s important to realize that Poirier’s only loss since 2017 was a title fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov, who has since exited the sport at the top of his game. Six of Poirier’s last eight wins have come by stoppage.

Oliveira is on a nine-fight win streak, also going back to 2017. All but one of those wins was by stoppage. Obviously, as the champion of the division, Oliveira should not be underestimated. But I don’t think Poirier is going to make that mistake. The challenger will have to stay on his feet, and if he does then the fight will go his way as he’s the significantly better striker. Standing up and striking is clearly Poirier’s best path to victory, whether it’s via stoppage or simply winning rounds on the judge’s scorecards. Also of note is that Oliveira has never had to go longer than three rounds. Ironically, it may be the challenger winning this fight in the so-called “championship rounds.” 8* Dustin Poirier

10* Sacramento (8:00 ET): This is an interesting matchup as both teams are in the second night of a back to back. The Kings lost Friday, 124-123 in Charlotte, after De’Aaron Fox missed two free throws with 2.4 seconds remaining. I was personally happy to see that as I was on Charlotte. But for the Kings, it was a difficult “pill to swallow,” not just because of Fox’s missed free throws, but they led most of the game (by as many as nine in the 3Q) and the Hornets seemingly “couldn’t miss” (shot 55.2%). Look for them to bounce back here though, at least ATS, as they’re catching a decent number here in Cleveland.

The Cavs continued their surprising start with a dominant 123-106 win at Minnesota last night. They led by as many as 30 (on the road!). With the win and cover, Cleveland is now 19-6-2 ATS, which is the best cover percentage in the league. Although they are 4-0 ATS when favored, this is a tricky spot for the Cavs, who are unrested and rarely this large of a favorite. I can’t possibly see them matching the red-hot shooting of last night where they were 54.1% from the field (shot over 60% in the 1H).

You have to tip your cap to Cleveland, who is undoubtedly THE biggest surprise team in the NBA. They entered this season with the fifth lowest power rating in the league, but now project to be a playoff team. They’ve covered the spread in 9 of their previous 10 games, but what’s interesting about that is the lone ATS loss during that stretch (at Milwaukee) came on the second night of a back to back. The Cavs’ last 9 ATS wins have all come when playing with at least one day of rest. The Kings will come into this game hungrier and - at the very worst - keep it close. 10* Sacramento

10* Under Navy/Army (3:00 ET): No surprise here. Over the last 16 College Football seasons, the Under is a preposterous 38-9 when two of the three service academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) face off. That includes a 2-0 mark in 2021 as Army’s game vs. Air Force ended up as a 21-14 win (with overtime!) while Navy’s game vs. Air Force was a 23-3 loss. The O/U lines for those respective games vs. the AFA were a little higher than what we’ve got to work with here, but I’m still sticking with the Under. 

That’s because taking the Under when Army plays Navy may be the most surefire bet in the sport. It’s cashed 10 straight years and 17 of the last 21. Last year’s 15-0 Army win was the lowest-scoring edition in recent history, but even so, three of the last four meetings have seen 27 or fewer points scored. It’s not difficult to understand why. With both teams running the triple option, the clock is almost always moving as you don’t have to worry about too many incompletions. Both defenses are also uniquely suited to stop, or at least slow down, the triple-option as they face it in practice every day.

In the case of Navy, they are only averaging 3.91 yards per carry. So this should be an “easy day at the office” for an Army defense that is allowing just 3.65 yards per carry. The Midshipmen also only average 20.4 PPG. That number was a lot lower before they managed to score 38 and 35 points in the final two regular season games. Before that, they’d only topped 20 twice! Even Army’s offensive production was halted somewhat down the stretch. In four of the last seven games, the Black Knights ran for less than 3.7 yards per carry. The exceptions were Bucknell (FCS), UMass (worst team in FBS) and Wake Forest (poor defense). 10* Under Navy/Army

10* Mississippi State (2:00 ET):  There are still eight unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball. One of the “lesser knowns” would be Colorado State, who is 9-0. The Rams are not ranked and other than Iowa State, I’d consider them the “weakest” of those teams that still don’t have a loss. Expect CSU to lose for the first time on Saturday as they face a Mississippi State team that’s angry after losing to Minnesota (as 11.5-pt favorites) in Starkville last weekend. MSU is 6-2 SU on the year and this is the first time they’ve been underdogs in any game. Take the points. 

This game takes place in Fort Worth, TX as part of the Hall of Fame Classic. It certainly looks to be Colorado State’s toughest test so far, although they did just beat St. Mary’s by 16 last weekend. But that game was in Fort Collins where the Rams “shot the lights out,” making 52.8% of their total field goal attempts, including 9 of 16 from three-point range. Also helpful was the fact St. Mary’s missed 17 of its 21 three-point attempts.

Miss State has done an excellent job defensively, holding teams to 39.4% shooting for the year. It should be noted that this is their second straight game against an unbeaten team. The Bulldogs were tied with Minnesota with 17 seconds left on Sunday before giving up the game’s final five points (Minnesota has since lost to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten). I don’t think that MSU is going to blow a second chance to ruin a team’s unbeaten start. Colorado State can’t continue to shoot 53.6% from the floor (season average!) and Miss State has the size advantage here. 10* Mississippi State

8* Oklahoma (1:30 ET): There are still eight unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball. One of them is #12 Arkansas, who is 9-0. You can’t take away from the fact they are unbeaten, but I’m not nearly as high on the Hogs as the pollsters are. They sit just outside the Top 25 in my own personal power ratings, which is just a little lower than they are in the KenPom ratings (where they are #23). This afternoon marks the Razorbacks’ first “true” road game of the season and I think it will be their first SU loss as well. 

Oklahoma is hosting Arkansas on Saturday. The Sooners are 7-2 SU, but coming off a bad loss to Butler here in Norman. It wasn’t “bad” in the sense that they were blown out. But rather, OU was an 11-point favorite in the 66-62 overtime loss. The Sooners blew a 10-point halftime advantage and saw their 26-game home win streak against non-conference teams come to an end. Both of their losses this year have been close; the other was by three to Utah State in Myrtle Beach. 

Oklahoma already holds a win over a Top 25 team this season. Ironically, it was over a SEC team. They beat Florida 74-67 (in Norman) back on Dec 1. OU will soon be headed to the SEC, but they’re not there yet, so the 26-1 SU run vs non-conference teams at home is still in play for this matchup with Arkansas, a team the Sooners are 5-0 SU/ATS when hosting, going back to ‘97. This game is being played in Oklahoma City, not Norman, but I’d still consider it a “home game” for the Sooners, who should hand Arkansas its first loss of the season. 8* Oklahoma

7* Borussia Dortmund (9:30 AM ET): Dortmund looks to get over the recent disappointments of losing Der Klassiker and failing to qualify for the Round of 16 in the Champions League as they head to Bochum Saturday. There was really no shame in either of their last two fixtures. Yes, they lost for a seventh straight time to Bayern (3-2) last week. But BVB still sits second in the Bundesliga table only four points adrift of their rivals. There were no ill-effects shown midweek as BVB thrashed Besiktas 5-0 in their final match of the UCL Group Stage. While that wasn’t enough to get them to the knockout stage, a 5-0 win in this sport is impressive, no matter what way you slice it.

As for Bochum, surprisingly they’ve got the better recent form (compared to BVB) in Bundesliga action. Having taken the full three points in five of their last seven fixtures, the newly promoted side is up to 10th in the table with some space between them and the relegation zone. It was probably a critical three points that Bochum picked up last week as they held on for a 3-2 win over 16th place Augsburg. As of now, I do give this side a decent shot of survival in the German top flight. However, they are pretty clearly not in the same class as Dortmund.

Obviously, Erling Haaland is a major reason to endorse Dortmund in this fixture. While he’s played only 130 minutes since his return, Haaland has scored four times and now has 17 goals in 13 matches played. He makes his side clearly the #2 team in the Bundesliga. Dortmund has scored multiple goals in seven of its last eight Bundesliga matches. Bochum has scored only 15 goals all season. While they’ve been better of late, they are still no match for BVB. 7* Borussia Dortmund

10* Under Pistons/Pelicans (8:05 ET): Two teams whose games have been higher scoring than usual of late collide in the Big Easy on Friday. Both the Pistons and Pelicans are off overtime losses, which at least partly explains some of the added scoring we’ve seen of late. Detroit went down at home to Washington on Wednesday, losing 119-116 on a buzzer beater. That was the Pistons’ 10th straight loss, a streak which goes back to 11/19. As for New Orleans, their OT loss on Wednesday was also at home, 120-114 to the Nuggets. I’m looking for this game not to be as high scoring though and will jump on the Under. 

Detroit shot 54.2% from three-point range against Washington (and still lost!). Do not expect them to come anywhere close to that percentage tonight. Not only are the Pistons shooting only 31% from behind the arc for the season, but they are 29th in overall scoring (99.8 PPG) and offensive efficiency (ahead of only OKC in both categories). Plus they are 30th (i.e. last) in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Over the last nine games, the Pistons have not scored more than 106 points in regulation. Four times they’ve been held below 100 points. 

New Orleans averages just 103.7 PPG for the year, but the L5 games have seen them score 111.8 PPG. Again, going to OT on Wednesday partially explains the increase in scoring. There was also a win over the Clippers where the Pelicans scored 123 points. But just like the Pistons, you can’t expect this level of scoring to continue. New Orleans is bottom five in both offensive efficiency and effective field goals percentage. It was a lot of turnovers on Wednesday (25) that led to them giving up 120 points. They won’t be that careless again, nor will Detroit shoot 51% overall like Denver did. Can’t see the Pelicans matching their own 52.2% shooting from the last game either and the Under is 4-0 the L4 times they’ve been home chalk. 10* Under Pistons/Pelicans

10* UMKC (8:00 ET): UMKC has fared extremely well at home thus far, although both times they faced non-DI opposition. Still, giving up an average of just 34 PPG at home is quite the accomplishment. Tonight the Roos host a Green Bay squad that is 0-4 on the road with the four losses coming by an average of 13.7 PPG. It’s the first time this season that UMKC has been favored, but according to my own power ratings, the number isn’t nearly high enough. So I’ll lay the points. 

UMKC opened its season with three road games against teams from “power conferences.” After predictably losing the first two (at Minnesota and Iowa), the Roos stunned the College Basketball world by going to Missouri and winning 80-66 as an 11-point dog. That win obviously carries a lot of weight in the power rating. But it should be noted the Roos have another road win as well, 74-58 at Idaho State, where they were a two-point dog. All four of the teams wins this season have been by double digits. 

Green Bay had a two-game win streak snapped last Saturday as they were housed 82-58 by Youngstown State, at home. That was a pick em game according to the oddsmakers, however, the Phoenix were outscored 50-28 over the final 22 minutes. Their only two wins this year came against a non-DI team (WI-Superior) and Robert Morris (who is still winless). I can’t see GB going on the road and pulling an upset here. For UMKC, this is the final home game before X-Mas, so they’re going to want to win big. 10* UMKC

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The oddsmakers seem to be underrating the Hornets as of late. That’s understandable as the team is without three starters and two reserves due to COVID-19 protocol, plus they have also lost five of their last six games. But, including B2B close losses to the 76ers here at home, Charlotte has managed to go 4-0 ATS in its last four games. Tonight they host a Sacramento team that’s on a 3-0 SU/ATS winning run. My power ratings say the Hornets should still be favored here, so I’m rolling with them. 

Earlier I mentioned that Charlotte is just 1-5 SU in its last six games. But five of those games have been decided by four points or less and the Hornets have come out on the losing end in four of them. So they easily could have a better overall record coming into this game. What’s really hurt them is an 0-4 SU record in OT games this season. The first loss to Philadelphia was an OT game, then the Hornets came up just four points short in the rematch on Wednesday. 

In the wake of all the absences, other players have stepped up for the Hornets. Gordon Hayward had a season-high 31 points on Wednesday. Charlotte should have no problem scoring tonight against a Sacramento team that just gave up 130 points in its last game. Prior to their last two games, the Kings have had three and two days off. Here, it’s just one day between games. Sacramento also has only five wins by more than five points all season. With one of those five coming against Charlotte (140-110 back on 11/5), the Hornets are “thinking revenge” coming into this one. The Kings are also 0-7 ATS the L3 seasons off a game where they scored 130+ points. 8* Charlotte

8* FC Koln (2:30 ET): Koln is having a better than anticipated season in the Bundesliga. Coming into matchday 15, the Billy Goats are sitting ninth in the table with 19 points. They’d be even higher if not for being “kings of the draw” (league-leading seven of those). But their three losses are tied for second fewest. Only the German top flight’s standard bearer, Bayern Munich, has tasted defeat on fewer occasions. The fact Koln has fewer losses than Dortmund at this point of the season is downright shocking. Koln comes into Friday on a four-match unbeaten streak, though three of those results have been draws, including last week’s 1-1 final against Arminia Bielefeld.

As for Koln’s opponent this week, things are looking a lot more dicey. Augsburg is used to seeing Koln “nearby” in the table as both clubs perennially find themselves fending off relegation. But as detailed above, Koln is in a good spot right now. Augsburg is down in 16th, which would mean the relegation playoff if things hold. There’s a long way to go, but I see Fuggerstadter’s status in the Bundesliga being very much in doubt. We know that Greuther Furth is a virtual lock for relegation. But then it’s Augsburg, Bielefeld and probably Hertha Berlin being the sides most likely to have to fight for survival. Augsburg is 16th in both goals scored and conceded thus far and their GD is -14.

Last week saw Augsburg lose 3-2 to Bochum, a freshly promoted side for this season. It wasn’t even really all that close as Augsburg fell behind 3-0 by halftime. The big key to this match is that it takes place at RheinEnergieStadion where Koln has not tasted defeat and outscored opposing sides 17-9 this season. Augsburg is not only winless in its seven away matches this season, they’ve scored only three goals! 8* FC Koln

8* St. John’s (8:30 ET): I think it’s a secretly “juicy” card tonight in College Hoops. Not only are two of the remaining nine unbeatens playing, but you have the nation’s worst ATS team (who I’m taking) as well as the nation’s best ATS team (who I’ll be fading) both in action. I already talked about how 0-9 SU/ATS William & Mary is “due” for a win & cover Thursday. Now let’s turn to Monmounth, who is 8-0 ATS and certainly due to drop a game at the betting window. There are only two perfect ATS teams left (7-0 MD-East Shore is the other). I think “tonight is the night” for the Hawks to fall from those ranks as they are clear underdogs at St. John’s. Lay the points in this one. 

St. John’s unveiled a new starting lineup on Sunday and the end result was an 83-69 win against Fordham. Replacing 6-2 G Stef Smith and 6-11 center Joel Soriano were Dylan Addae-Wusu and Esahia Nyiwe. Addae-Wusu had a career-day (11 points and 11 assists) while Nyiwe scored seven points. Addae-Wusu was high school teammates with the Johnnies’ second-leading scorer, Posh Alexander, who also had a career-day against Fordham with 23 points. Julian Champagnie led the Big East in scoring last season and is averaging 21.0 PPG so far this year. I think Red Storm HC Mike Anderson has found himself a solid starting five.

St. John’s is 6-2 SU coming into this game. Their only losses were to Kansas and Indiana. While they got blown out by the Jayhawks, the Red Storm only lost by two at Indiana. Against the spread, they are 0-5 L5 games, but they were big double digit faves in four of those games (all wins) and then there was the game vs. Kansas. I know that Monmouth is not only perfect ATS, but also on a 7-game SU win streak after losing the season opener (by just two) to Charlotte. But tonight marks the Hawks’ seventh road game of the season and fourth in the last 12 days. They’ve got to be running on empty. 8* St. John’s

8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): Despite what the records may say, I believe the Vikings are a better football team than the Steelers. Minnesota may be 5-7 SU, but (unlike the Steelers) they can actually claim a POSITIVE YTD point differential, albeit a small one (at +3). The Vikes’ seven losses have all been by eight points or fewer. Four have been decided on the final play of the game, including a pair of OT losses. Last week may have been the new nadir as the Vikes fell 29-27 to the previously winless Lions. That was a game where Mike Zimmer’s team was favored by a TD on the road, had a 426-372 edge in total yards and took the lead with just under two minutes to go. The defense simply could not get the last stop that Zimmer needed. 

So, at this point, I’m pretty much willing to “dig my heels in” and let it be known that I don’t think Pittsburgh is a very good team. Sure, they beat the Ravens last week to move to 6-5-1 on the year. But the Steelers have been outscored this season by 42 points. They are the only team in the NFL to have a winning record and negative point differential. While a bulk of that negative point differential stems from a 41-10 loss to the Bengals two weeks ago, it’s also true that the Steelers do not have a single victory this season by more than eight points. Their six victories have been by a total of 26 points. Bottom line: I do NOT believe this team is going to make the playoffs. I want to play against them here. 

The defense may have let them down last week, but the Vikings are a lot stingier here at home. A lot stingier, in fact. On the road, Minnesota allows 29.2 PPG. That’s second most in the NFL. But at home, they allow only 19.8 PPG, which is in the top 10. It’s that defensive improvement that allows me to look past the potential absences of WR Adam Thielein and RB Dalvin Cook on Thursday. The Steelers’ offense, which averages only 20.3 PPG and has an aging Ben Roethlisberger at QB, isn’t very good. And the last two times the Steelers have gone on the road, their defense has surrendered 41 points in both games! The Vikings moved the ball fine w/o Thielen and Cook last week. My power ratings do say that the Vikings are the better team here. So they probably should be laying more than a field goal. But with all but one of their games having been decided by eight points or less, I feel more comfortable simply playing them on the money line. They WILL win this game. 8* Minnesota (MONEY LINE)

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This is a situation where I anticipate that “the world” will be on the Lakers as they are laying a short number to a Memphis team that lost last night. But it certainly seems foolish to discount a Grizzlies team that won (and covered) its first five games without Ja Morant. One of those wins came by 73 points over Oklahoma City, which set a new NBA record for largest margin of victory in league history. Last night’s game against Dallas saw the Grizzlies seemingly run out of gas late as they were outscored 28-21 in the fourth quarter. The final score was 104-96, an outright loss as 2.5-point favorites. 

While this is the second night of a back to back, I think it’s worth noting that Memphis at least gets to stay home. That alleviates some of the issues typically associated with this situation. Also, note that Dillon Brooks was ejected late in the 4Q last night, which may have an inspiring effect on both he and his teammates for tonight. As a team, Memphis shot just 40% against the Mavs, including 9 of 31 from three-point range. I expect better shooting tonight as the Grizz are 6-1 SU and ATS this season after a game where they were held under 100 points. They are also 9-4 ATS as underdogs. 

The Lakers are just 13-12 SU this season, including 4-5 on the road. Now a lot of that has to do with LeBron James missing a lot of action. James is expected to be on the court tonight. However, he would be matching a season-high by playing in his third consecutive game. Not sure he will be able to match his 30-point effort (on 13 of 19 shooting) that he had against Boston on Tuesday. Same with Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, both of whom also had double doubles. I just think the Lakers are a mediocre basketball team right now and the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to that fact. Take the points. 10* Memphis

8* William & Mary (7:00 ET): Tonight “has” to be the night for William & Mary, right? The Tribe comes into Thursday at 0-9 - both straight up and against the spread! There are just four winless teams in the country, straight up. None have more losses than W&M’s nine. There are also just four winless teams in the country, against the spread. None have more losses than W&M’s nine. This is quite the dubious distinction for one of the last remaining “major” College Basketball programs to never make a NCAA Tournament. But hosting an “added board team” tonight, we like the Tribe to “get off the schneid.” 

Hampton comes in with a 3-6 SU record, but is off its first win in nearly a month. After opening 2-0 SU (both wins against non-DI opposition), the Pirates promptly lost their next six games. Four of those six losses came by double digits and all were by at least six points (significant when looking at tonight’s pointspread). But Saturday saw the Pirates finally take down a D-I opponent as they snuck by Norfolk State 58-57. They won on a buzzer-beater as Russell Dean hit a miraculous three-pointer as time expired. That was a nice win as a three-point home dog, but Hampton is still 0-3 SU on the road this season. 

Hampton is still on a “high” off their thrilling win, but William & Mary is desperate and knows this is their best shot at a win yet. The only other time that the Tribe have been favored was the second game of the season when they were -2 here at home vs. American U and lost 72-64. I know that an 0-9 SU/ATS record inspires little confidence here, but every team is eventually “due” and in the case of W&M they are facing their weakest opponent yet, one that is 5-16 ATS its L21 non-conference games. Hampton is 0-5 ATS the L5 times it has been off an ATS win and 0-4 SU vs. W&M the L4 seasons. 8* William & Mary

10* Seton Hall (6:30 ET): I believe the wrong team is favored in this Big 12 vs. Big East matchup Thursday night. This isn’t the first time I’ve taken Seton Hall, nor will it be the last. It was almost a month ago that I called the Pirates one of the more underrated teams in the country as they went into Michigan and pulled a 67-65 upset. That win earned them the respect they deserved. While the Pirates did lose their next game, 79-76 to Ohio State, they have since rattled off four consecutive victories and come into tonight ranked #23 in the country. 

Texas is ranked #7 in the country and like Seton Hall has just one loss on the season. The Longhorns were beaten as a 7.5-point dog by Gonzaga, 86-74 back on November 13th. That loss is still the only time UT has had to venture off campus thus far. They’ve won five straight by an average of 23 PPG, but that’s all against lesser competition. This will be, by far, the ‘Horns toughest test since losing to the ‘Zags. 

While Texas is the higher ranked team, factoring in the home court edge, I believe Seton Hall should be the favorite here. The Pirates are 5-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 32.4 PPG. Again, Texas has played only one “true” road game while Seton Hall not only went to Michigan, but also played a Holiday Tournament in Florida. Myles Cale returned to Seton Hall’s lineup over the weekend, after missing the previous three games. That’s a big boost for tonight. Also, Texas is 0 for its last 7 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest and 2-14 ATS when facing a team that averages at least 77 PPG. 10* Seton Hall

8* Utah Valley State (9:00 ET): Going back to my “old friends” in Utah Valley. The last time I played the Wolverines, they turned in an outright upset for me, defeating #12 BYU 72-65 in overtime as 13-point underdogs. Quite obviously, that was the Wolverines’ most impressive win to date as they’ve started the season 7-1. That they were able to defeat BYU despite shooting just 31.3% from the field (including 5 of 19 on 3PA) speaks to what kind of team we’ve got here. They did have a substantial edge at the FT line over BYU, but even if that’s not the case tonight, UVU should get by Southern Utah. Take the points. 

Southern Utah enters tonight on a four-game win streak. Two of those wins, 88-85 over Yale and 81-75 over Idaho, were close. In fact, the win over Yale required OT. This will actually be just the second home game for the Thunderbirds, so it may seem surprising that they are 5-3 SU overall. But they’ve only been a dog three times and did lose outright at Dixie State (as a 10.5-point favorite) in the second game of the season. 

I know that one has to be careful about taking a team coming off a big upset win, but in the case of Utah Valley State, they’ve had plenty of time off. The win over BYU was last Wednesday. They were to play Yellowstone Christian (a non-board team) on Friday, but that game was canceled. I’ve got the Wolverines rated as the better team on a neutral floor, so even with the home court advantage tonight, Southern Utah should not be favored by this many. This is a triple revenge game for UVU as they have not beaten their in-state rivals since 2014 (lost in both ‘19 and ‘20). 8* Utah Valley State

10* Over Bulls/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Chicago has won and covered four straight, but tonight they will be without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, who is in the league’s “health and safety protocols” due to COVID-19. DeRozan, the league’s fourth leading scorer at 26.4 PPG, is a significant loss to the Bulls. However, they did just score 109 points without him in a win over Denver on Monday. Tonight, I expect they’ll easily crack the 100-point barrier once again. With a low total, that means I’m going Over in this one. 

Cleveland, like Chicago, is another surprising team. The Cavs enter Wednesday with a 13-12 SU record and are 8th in the East. That may not sound all that impressive, but when you consider how moribund this franchise has been in the “non-LeBron years” the last decade-plus, it’s certainly an improvement. The Cavs had their own four-game win streak snapped on Sunday with a 109-108 loss to the Jazz. Then they went down to another of the league’s top teams, Milwaukee, 112-104 on Monday. That snapped a 7-game ATS win streak. 

The Bulls are a perfect 6-0 Over this season after holding their previous opponent to 100 points or less. That’s the situation they are in here, coming off the aforementioned win over Denver. Chicago is averaging 110.2 PPG on the road this year. While a big part of that is DeRozan, the team can still turn to the likes of Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, all of whom have turned in big games lately. For Cleveland, this is a rare instance of being favored (just 3rd time all season). Having scored 104+ points in eight consecutive games, they’ve been just fine offensively without Collin Sexton. I think this is a case where oddsmakers have set the O/U line far too low, based on a couple of absences. Both teams will be fine. 10* Over Bulls/Cavaliers

10* Connecticut (7:00 ET): Normally, when a ranked and unranked team meet, I see value in the latter. But here, you’ve got a UConn team whose #15 ranking I am totally in line with, taking on a West Virginia team that simply isn’t on their level. I understand that this game is in Morgantown and UConn is without two starters. But my power ratings say the Huskies should still be the favorites tonight, so taking the points in this one looks to be a “no-brainer.” 

At 8-1, UConn is off to its best start since 2013-14. This is a team with tremendous depth, which is why I am not overly concerned about the absences of Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin. Without those two, the Huskies still scored 88 points in their last game. Granted, it was at home vs. Grambling, but positive contributions from the likes of R.J. Cole, Isaiah Whatley and Jordan Hawkins have me confident in this team heading into tonight. Nine different players scored and logged at least 12 minutes on the court against Grambling. I also like the fact that UConn is 16th nationally in FG% defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 37.2 percent for the season. 

West Virginia (7-1) also has just one loss. It came against Marquette, back on 11/19, 82-71 as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite. The Mountaineers have since rattled off four straight wins, including 67-51 over Radford on Saturday. But only two players finished that game in double figures. With second-leading scorer Sean McNeil out, WVU leans heavily on Taz Sherman, who went for 27 against Radford. I think that UConn, the superior defensive team in this matchup, can contain Sherman. The Huskies’ only loss this year was by four to Michigan State on Thanksgiving, which came a day after a 2OT win over Auburn in a holiday tournament. Look for them to win their first “true” road game of 2021-22. 10* Connecticut

8* DePaul (8:30 ET): After suffering their first loss of the season, I see DePaul bouncing back in a major way Tuesday night at home. The Blue Demons lost 68-64 on Saturday, to Loyola Chicago, but covered the spread as 4.5-point home underdogs. They’re now 6-1 ATS and while there have been some close wins mixed in (won by three over Rutgers and four over W Illinois), this should be more of a blowout as Duquesne comes in at 3-6 SU and off a very tough loss at Marshall. Lay the points.

On Saturday, Duquesne went to Marshall and took a seven-point lead into halftime. But it was not meant to be. The Dukes lost 72-71 on a last-second three-pointer. While they left with the cash (as eight-point dogs), it’s going to be a difficult loss to get over and thus I believe the Dukes are ripe to be blown out here. This is the first time this season that Duquesne has had to play B2B “true” road games. They’ve actually dropped two in a row as last week also saw them lose at home to Bowling Green, 78-70 as a 4.5-point favorite. 

DePaul also led at the half in their last game. They took a 37-31 lead into the break and seemed primed to win their seventh straight game. But they only scored 27 points in the second half. Leading scorer Javon Freeman-Liberty was held to only 10 points and six rebounds. He averages 21.1 PPG, so expect a bounce back effort here. My power ratings say that this should be a double digit spread, so I’ll put faith in that and lay the number. 8* DePaul

10* Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas enters the day ranked #8 in the country. I’ve got them a bit higher in my own power ratings. The Jayhawks’ lone defeat came by a single point, in Florida, to Dayton on a buzzer-beater. That was a game they led by 10 at the half. Since suffering that loss, KU has bounced back with convincing wins over Iona (also in Florida) and at St. John’s. Tonight they face a UTEP team that is going to be severely outclassed. The game takes place in Kansas City, not Lawrence, but you’re still going to want to lay the points as the favorite should roll here.

UTEP has a 4-3 SU record after a loss to New Mexico State last week. That’s the only game the Miners have played since Thanksgiving. I  made the mistake of taking the Under in that last game and what killed me was UTEP allowing 56.5% shooting, including 40% from three-point range. I don’t see the Miners defending any better here against one of the elite offensive teams in the country (Kansas is 3rd in Off Efficiency per KenPom). Another issue is that UTEP fouls way too much. They also don’t shoot well from behind the arc (just 31.7%), so it’s going to be difficult to “keep pace” against a vastly superior opponent. 

These teams met last season and the game was actually close (Kansas won 67-62 as a 17-point favorite). It was not a great shooting night for the Jayhawks, who made only five three-pointers and 41.8% of their total FG attempts. I expect a much better effort at the offensive end tonight. Covering the spread has been a bit of an issue thus far for Bill Self’s team (3-3-1 ATS), but UTEP is just 2-6 ATS its last eight games vs. teams with winning records and hasn’t faced any team near this caliber all season. 10* Kansas