10* Arizona (8:00 ET): Arizona had the longest home win streak in the entire country snapped when they lost 83-75 to Oregon on January 27th.  Since then, they've won four in a row overall, two of those at home. Friday saw the Wildcats manage to outlast UCLA, 81-75, a game they were favored to win by 12.  Though they obviously didn't cover there, success did come at the betting window each of the previous three games.  Getting to play at the McKale Center for a second time this weekend is pretty big for a team that is outscoring its opponents by a full 20 points per game here for the season. Meanwhile, USC will be dropping out of the new rankings tomorrow due to losing at Arizona State Friday. It will be another loss here and a big one at that. 

As they showed Friday, the Trojans are not a particularly great road team. They give up an average of 78.9 points per game and despite being under that average at ASU, they still found a way to lose there. It was the offense that failed them, scoring 18 points fewer than their season average, though also giving up 47 points in the second half didn't help matters. Neither did 17 turnovers or getting beat up on the offensive glass. Arizona may have found itself down by 10 at the half to UCLA, but the bottom line is that they've beaten USC here in Tucson six straight times, the last three coming by a 70 point margin. The Wildcats have been able to win their last two games (at Washington, vs. UCLA) despite not really being at their best (40 percent shooting), which I think is key as I don't feel they'll be turning the ball over at the same rate (20 times) they did vs. Washington nor be as poor defensively as they were in the first half vs. UCLA.

This is of course a big revenge game from Arizona's perspective as they lost a four overtime decision to the Trojans in LA earlier in the season. That was a somewhat controversial finish w/ a foul called on the Wildcats leading to the final two point margin (103-101!).  At the time, it was UA's third straight road game, so hardly a great spot.  USC, like Arizona here, was playing its second home game of the weekend. The Wildcats were favored (by three) in that first meeting, so no surprise w/ the line being where it's at here.  Arizona is also 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss.  10* Arizona

9* Tampa Bay (6:00 ET): Both of these teams won Friday. For Tampa Bay, getting the two points had to be considered somewhat of a miracle seeing as they were down a goal with less than thirty seconds to go in regulation. I, for one, was ecstatic to see Steven Stamkos score on his seventh shot of the game as I had the Over (5.0) and that goal ensured I would be a winner, regardless of which team scored in OT. As for St. Louis, they had far less difficulty in beating Florida 5-3 as they've now alternated wins and losses since the All-Star Break. Unfortunately, that pattern has the Blues losing here and I expect them to "follow suit." This season has seen them go just 5-8 SU when off a win by two or more goals.

The Blues did take this season's first meeting, 2-0, but that came all the way back in late October.  Much has changed since then and for Tampa Bay, they've gone from being a .500-type team to 10 games over.  They've won 12 of 16 and that's with goalie Ben Bishop being a little shakier than normal recently.  His save percentage over his L4 starts is just .902. But for the season, it's .923 (a little higher at home) and I expect him to begin reverting back to normal form starting tonight. Home ice advantage matters here as the Lightning have won nine straight at Amalie Arena. A win tonight would tie a franchise record for most consecutive home victories.

St. Louis has been a little lucky with its goaltending of late as Brian Elliott (13 straight starts) has had to shoulder the load and has a .941 save percentage his last five starts. He's allowed an average of just 1.8 goals per game on an average of 30.8 shots during that time.  Since the Break, the Blues have averaged only 24.8 shots per game themselves, which is certainly NOT a winning formula.  Keep in mind that it was Jake Allen that posted the shutout in the previous matchup vs. Tampa Bay.  They also have not won three consecutive road games (which they are going for here) since November. The Blues rank surprisingly low in both Corsi (19th) and Fenwick (18th), indicating that they don't possess the puck nearly enough. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is Top 9 in both categories. 9* Tampa Bay

8* Canisius (3:00 ET):  As I often say, the revenge angle can be quite overrated at times, but here it applies as Canisius looks to atone for an ugly 17-point loss, at home, suffered last month at the hands of MAAC rival St. Peter's. The Golden Griffins were actually eight-point chalk for that first meeting, so there's been a noticeable swing in the spread for today's game, but that swing in my estimation is too severe.  Something that caught my eye here is the line is actually now dropping in spite of the fact that St. Peter's has taken the majority of the bets. That's a sign that the so-called "smart money" is likely on the underdog in this one. Take the points.

When these teams played last month, Canisius shot the ball terribly, as in 29.7% overall from the field, including 7 of 28 from behind the arc.  St. Peter's meanwhile was actually at 51% overall and 7 of 17 from behind the arc.  I wouldn't look for such disparate shooting numbers today, in fact, I'm actually more concerned about St. Peter's defensive numbers (63.9 PPG allowed at home) than anything else.  The Peacocks have been able to win and cover B2B games due to holding their opponents below 60 points.  But, it's telling that they are not favored by more in this spot.  Part of the reason is because they've been outscored this season and offensively they're just not very good. They barely shoot above 40% for the year.

Canisius got blown out in their last game, 90-67 at Siena, but that too only serves to increase the value we are getting here.  They shot just 37.3% from the field on Thursday. Meanwhile, it's a minor edge w/ an extra day of prep as St. Peter's had to play Friday, making this the second game in three days for them.  It's all of matter of whose pace this game is played at as Canisius may be inferior defensively, but they also average 77.6 points per game themselves.  That previous matchup vs. St. Peter's happens to be the Golden Griffin's worst offensive showing of the entire year.  It is the only game all season where they failed to score at least 60 points.  It's a surprise that that they're only 1-7 ATS as underdogs this season, but also they'd been favored more often than not until recently. 8* Canisius

8* Boston College (1:00 ET): One of the "tell tale" signs of value is when you can get the same number taking a team at home as you did on the road. It's rare and certainly there will be some mitigating circumstances, but surely its something that when it happens, you must take advantage of. Such is the case this afternoon w/ an admittedly bad Boston College team. The Eagles are now 0-11 SU in ACC play following a narrow (as in 68-65) defeat at the hands of North Carolina, who was -20.5 for the game, Tuesday night. An earlier conference loss saw BC fall at Syracuse, 62-40, but now we're able to grab the same amount of points here as were available in the Carrier Dome last month. Yes, the first meeting ended up being lopsided, but the value is definitely there on the home dog today. Take the points.

Boston College might be 1-10 SU on the road or in neutral site games, but they're also a far more respectable 6-7 SU at home.  The discrepancy became more apparent with the result from their last game (vs. UNC), which was a far cry from the final margin of 27 points when they had to travel to Chapel Hill just ten days prior. We could be seeing a similar swing here today. The Eagles could manage only 15 points in the first half when they traveled to Syracuse, but I reckon that kind of performance won't be repeated here, nor will their 31.9% overall shooting from that first meeting. Syracuse, meanwhile, is just 5-5 SU outside of the Carrier Dome this season and one of those wins came by only two points (at Duke).  Until today, the Orange had yet to be an ACC road favorite at any time all season.

Syracuse has actually played its last four games all at home, so this could be a bit of a tricky spot. They did beat Florida State by a final score of 85-72 on Thursday, but are just 3-9 ATS the last three seasons after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. Also, keep in mind that B.C. has had two extra days to prepare here.  That's fairly significant as is the spread. Again, it was obviously too low the first go around but here there's been an overadjustment as I see B.C. still being hungry for that first ACC win of the season. 8* Boston College

10* Edmonton (10:05 ET): The Oilers treated me well Thursday (beat Toronto 5-2), so I'll go right ahead and come back with them again here vs. Winnipeg. Interestingly enough, I also cashed in the Jets most recent game, albeit it was the Over as they lost 6-2 at home to Boston.  But that result was all too typical of what we've been seeing from Winnipeg of late, that being giving up a lot of goals.  It was the third time in their last five games that they allowed at least five, so w/ Edmonton having posted five of their own in each of their two home games since the All-Star Break, Connor McDavid and company seem like a "safe bet" here. The Oilers have in fact been quite respectable on home ice this season.

The only other time these teams played this year was here in Alberta, back on December 21st, and it was the Oilers prevailing 3-1 in spite of a 45-21 deficit in shots on goal.  The Jets have won both of their road games since the Break, so something will have to give here. I suspect it will be Winnipeg's road run that is the less sustainable as they needed a shootout to win one of those and it's an actual five straight road games w/ at least a point for them. None of the team's options in goal are particularly attractive and tonight it looks to be Ondrej Pavalec, who has an .895 save percentage on the road this season. This is a pretty cheap price to get to go against a last place team on the road.

McDavid has been as good as advertised for the Oilers and he's off a game where he had five points.  It's been entirely "feast or famine" for Edmonton since the Break as they've outscored opponents 17-5 in their three wins and been outscored 15-3 in the three losses, all of which came on the road.  I find it hard to believe that Winnipeg will be putting 45 shots on goal here like they did in that December meeting. That should make life easier for Oilers' netminder Cam Talbot, who had to make 44 saves back then. He stopped 34 more shots Thursday in a much needed breakout performance. Here at home, Talbot does have a strong .923 save percentage.  The Oilers are better than you think on home ice and w/ McDavid back in the fold, are the play here. 10* Edmonton

10* Pacific (10:00 ET):  For a second time this year, Pepperdine just pulled a major upset at St. Mary's expense. Now, we get to go against them. The Waves were 13-point road underdogs in Thursday's 69-63 win over the Gaels, which did snap a three-game losing streak for them. However, they are still 7-1 against the spread their last eight games. But I correctly faded them that one time they failed at the betting window, that being an outright loss at home (as 12-point chalk) to Portland two Thursdays ago.  Being the favorite hasn't really treated Pepperdine all too well as they're just 3-4 ATS in that role vs. the rest of the WCC w/ two outright losses. Two of the wins came at lowly San Diego's expense. Take the points here.

Pacific, meanwhile, is off an outright loss here at home Thursday night to Loyola Marymount. The final score there read 77-72 in a game the Tigers were expected to WIN by five. But like Pepperdine, Pacific prefers to be in the underdog role as taking points had been the driving force behind a 7-1 ATS surge prior to losing to LMU. Keep in mind that they were actually a 17-point dog in an upset win over BYU last Saturday. That was the sixth straight time they'd covered when catching points, dating back to staying within five points of Pepperdine (as 9.5-pt dogs) on January 7th in what was a back and forth game. An inability to close killed Pacific Thursday as they led by eight late, but could only manage one point over the final four minutes. I expect them to bounce back in a second straight home game.

Meanwhile, it's the dreaded second road game in three night scenario for Pepperdine that's all too common in West Coast Conference play. This will be the third such situation for the Waves this year and they have yet to sweep any two-game set.  Last time in it, they fell by 11 at BYU. Given that they don't have a winning record on the road, I'm unconvinced that Pepperdine should be the favorite here, especially considering Pacific's 10-4 ATS mark as an underdog.  It was a colossal 38-15 edge in free throw attempts in that first meeting, plus Lamond Murray, Jr finished w/ a career high 31 points. Neither is likely to be duplicated here. 10* Pacific

8* Over Texas/Iowa State (8:30 ET): This is a big game in the Big 12 as surging Texas visits Ames to take on fading Iowa State. Though they just lost by three at Oklahoma (still covered as eight-point dogs though), the Longhorns have won seven of nine and covered seven straight for Shaka Smart. They've been able to do that thanks to a defense which has allowed just one of its last eight opponents to top 65 points, that being Kansas, who beat them in Lawrence. However, tonight presents a challenge as ISU averages 85.8 points per game here at home and these two teams have a history of high scoring games when facing off. That includes a 94-91 UT win in Austin last month, which went to overtime. Nevertheless, it was tied 87-87 at the end of regulation, meaning the extra five minutes was not needed for Over players. This total, surprisingly, is significantly lower than the first go around. Take the Over.

Both sides did shoot the ball pretty well in that first meeting, but there weren't a ton of free throws taken. Admittedly, that is something that's been a sustained issue for Iowa State, but I'm still going to project more free throws being taken tonight and that will offset any potential drop in overall shooting percentage. Furthermore, ISU hasn't needed much from the charity stripe in it's impressive scoring average this year as they shoot 50% overall, including 37.4% from three-point range.  At least on the road, Texas struggles to defend the arc. Opponents are hitting 37.4% against them in such games and even in Austin, the Cyclones were able to connect on 13 attempts from distance. 

The Under is 5-0 in Texas' last five games and had cashed seven straight times for Iowa State prior to Wednesday's 85-82 loss at Texas Tech. But that was another overtime game where the Over cashed in regulation. This seems like a really low total for a Cyclones team who is used to seeing totals as high as 170.5 (vs. Oklahoma).  It looks like they will get back forward Jameel McKay from suspension tonight and that's huge because he leads them team w/ a 58.5 FG%. Consider that five of the last six meetings between these two have gone Over the total as have eight of the last nine here in Ames.  10* Over Texas/Iowa State

8* Connecticut (8:00 ET):  The faithful in Storrs are still trying to figure out exactly what went wrong for their beloved Huskies Thursday night as what seemed like a sure victory (led Temple by 12 w/ just seven minutes to go) quickly turned into a 63-58 loss thanks to an improbable 23-6 run to end the game by the other side. That result did UConn's tourney hopes no favors as this team is now squarely on the bubble. So, they certainly can't afford another loss any time soon. Fortunately, a) they should be motivated by revenge here and b) they are catching Tulsa off a surprising result, that being a win over SMU as nine-point dogs. I can't see lightning striking twice in more ways than one, so I say lay the points.

UConn had its poorest offensive effort of the year when they traveled to Tulsa on January 14th.  The line there was in the pick 'em range, but the Huskies shot only 30.9% from the field en route to only 51 points. Since that time, they have won six of eight, including what happened on Thursday. Only one time all year has this team dropped B2B games and that came in early in the year w/ two straight three-point decisions vs. Gonzaga and Syracuse.  In fact, five of the team's seven losses this year have been by five points or less. Meanwhile, their average margin of victory here at home is a whopping 18.6 points per game.  The debacle against Temple saw them turn the ball over three times in the final 25 seconds, a dubious feat that I surmise won't be soon repeated.

As for Tulsa, Wednesday's win saw them beat the linesmakers' projection by a wider margin than any game previous to it.  That creates an excellent opportunity to 'go against' here. The Golden Hurricane have amassed a strong record in spite of a rather pedestrian scoring differential. They couldn't miss against SMU Wednesday, going 31 of 53 from the field (58.5%), but note that they actually trailed by as many as eight in the second half. It's impressive that they were able to win where no road team had won before this season, but now comes the inevitable letdown.  This is the first time in conference play that Tulsa has had to play B2B road games. 8* Connecticut

10* Over Islanders/Hurricanes (7:05 ET):  This is a tough spot for Carolina, who I went against last night and came away w/ a 2-1 win thanks to Pittsburgh.  Most crushing of all is that the 'Canes actually received a solid outing between the pipes from Cam Ward, who allowed just one goal in regulation. Unfortunately, the game went to a shootout and you already know the end result. That was the 'Canes second straight loss coming via shootout as they fell in Montreal by the same exact score last Sunday. Given we're likely to see Eddie Lack in goal tonight against the high-powered Islanders, the potential for a high-scoring game is certainly present. Meanwhile, over its last six games, Carolina has finished w/ either 1 or 5 goals. It should be somewhere in between here.

The Isles haven't had much issue scoring of late as they've totaled 16 goals during a three-game win streak. It all began with a dominant 8-1 win over Edmonton on Sunday and then Thursday they beat the Kings 5-2 on Thursday. Granted, most of the recent high-scoring games have come at home, but this is a rare chance to get a 5.0 goal total w/ them. So far, the Over is 4-2 in 10 games (w/ four pushes) in that scenario.  The team has also scored 14 times in its last three visits to Raleigh, all wins, and All-Star John Tavares really has had the 'Canes number. It would be a huge break drawing Lack in goal as his save percentage is just a hair above .900 for the season and in division games, it drops down to an ugly .880. 

While New York maybe won't be able to quite match their own recent scoring efforts, even against Lack, the overall number of goals scored in this contest should be aided by Carolina.  Both teams have averaged more than 32 shots on goal the last five games, by the way.  Like I said earlier, it's been rather "feast or famine" when it comes to actual scoring for the 'Canes during that time. In three games, they've scored five times while in the other three, it's been just one goal.  Figuring that both sides are highly likely to score multiple times tonight, this one really seems like a "no-brainer" to me. The Islanders' Jaroslav Halak has a woeful .870 save percentage his L4 starts. 10* Over Islanders/Hurricanes

10* Boise State (4:00 ET): Perhaps no team in the country will be in a more ornery mood come Saturday than Boise State. That's because of what happened to the Broncos on Wednesday at Colorado State.  There, they were failed by both the referees and technology in a bizarre 97-93 double overtime loss that saw their game winner (at the end of the 1st OT) nullified due to the officials inability to properly rectify the fact that the clock was not started properly on the play.  The Mountain West has since come out and admitted Boise State should have won the game and HC Leon Rice is demanding his team be given the win. It was a critical loss for the Broncos as they are now in fourth, rather than second, in the conference standings. In comes Wyoming Saturday and they are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. Lay the points.

The Broncs opened MW play 6-1 SU w/ their only loss to first place San Diego State.  But they've since dropped four of five and are 0-5 ATS. Oddsmakers continue to price them in a range that connotates respect as just one time in league play have they been an underdog (at UNLV).  While they haven't been successful at the betting window (3-7 ATS) here at home, they are 11-2 SU with an average margin of victory of 15.1 points per game (averaging 81.6 PPG).  This is not the first time they've taken on Wyoming this year. Last month, they went to Laramie (where it's not easy to win) and prevailed 81-71 as seven-point chalk.  Going by that line, Boise State seems like a great value here now only having to lay a few more points at home.  This is an excellent opportunity to get in and "buy low" with the Broncos.

Wyoming is a terrible road team.  They are just 3-9 straight up outside of the high elevation of Laramie and have dropped five of six in MW play, the one win coming by just two at New Mexico.  The result they are off has the Cowboys overvalued heading into today as they just beat Utah State 84-65 last Saturday. The Pokes have had a full week to prepare here, but given the high level of motivation we're bound to see from the home side, that won't matter. Wyoming shot 50% their last game, but still is at just 41.1% overall in league play. 10* Boise State

10* Detroit (3:00 ET):  Sell on good news, buy on bad news. That's a mindset that I love to employ in College Basketball and we are able to put it to good use Saturday afternoon here in the Horizon League.  Milwaukee just pulled an upset Thursday night, 93-85 as 6.5-point dogs in Oakland, while Detroit is off a one-point loss (were favored by 2) here at home vs. Green Bay.  Milwaukee will be playing its fourth straight road games this afternoon, a tough spot no doubt, and I can't see their hosts dropping B2B games at home. Furthermore, it feels like the linesmakers have overadjusted considering the first meeting between these two was a three-point game (in Milwaukee's favor) and a 6.5-point spread. Detroit should be favored here as I like them to exact some revenge. Take the points.

Detroit has had some poor luck in conference play. At one point, they had lost four straight games by four points or less or in overtime. The Titans losing streak then reached five w/ a 91-83 setback at the hands of Northern Kentucky. But they quickly bounced back w/ three consecutive victories. Unfortunately, then came Thursday's 86-85 loss to Green Bay. Poor free throw shooting on a low volume hurt them there. While it was just their fourth home loss of the season, it was also their fourth in the last five home games. In other words, I expect them to turn things around shortly. Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in road games this year, an unsustainable trend from where I sit, so this is almost a perfect storm of sorts.

In the first matchup, Detroit actually held a six-point halftime advantage.  But they allowed 52 points after that, even though the Panthers finished only 5 of 24 from three-point range.  Neither of these teams are strong defensively, but of late Milwaukee has been particularly bad by giving up 84.0 PPG its last five. That's a major reason why they've lost outright three times during that span. Teams are shooting 38.8% from three-point range against them for the year. The Panthers are also just 1-2 ATS as road favorites in conference play, including an outright loss at Northern Kentucky last Saturday. A fourth straight road game catches up with them here. 10* Detroit

10* Over Predators/Lightning (7:35 ET): It's pretty amazing that we keep seeing all these 5.0 goal totals for Tampa Bay, a team that led the league in scoring last season. Now, we all know that this offense hasn't been nearly as strong in 2015-16.  But that hasn't stopped them from going Over in each of the last three games as there's been a combination of strong offense (in a 6-3 win over Pittsburgh) mixed with uncharacteristically bad goaltending (nine goals allowed L2 games).  Speaking of going Over in three straight games, that's what Nashville has done as well and it's been in a similar fashion as Tampa Bay. These two teams clash Friday night and I'm expecting plenty of goals in this one.  Take the Over.

Goaltending has been a real weak spot for the Predators over their last five games w/ save percentage of only .877. They've actually done a really good job at limiting shot opportunities, so the blame lies at the feet (or pads?) of Pekka Rinne, who has an .862 save percentage the last four games.  Tuesday vs. Washington, he allowed five goals on just 23 shots.  It was even worse last Thursday when he allowed six goals on just 19 shots vs. the Flyers.  Though he's been slightly better on the road lately, the bottom line is that Rinne still has an .895 save percentage away from home for the season. That's just bad. Remember, Tampa Bay averages nearly 3.0 goals per game at home this year and scored six times their last game here.

The nine goals the Lightning have allowed the last two games represent a season-high over a two-game span for the season. But expecting Ben Bishop to bounce back in this spot would be a mistake. His career marks vs. Nashville are not good at all (3.98 GAA, .862 save percentage). He has an .893 save percentage and 3.32 GAA his L4 start overall, very uncharacteristic, but nevertheless I see him struggling yet again tonight.  These teams met very early on in the season and it was a 5-4 final score (went to a shootout) in Nashville's favor. When scanning over recent results, I just see a lot of instances of these teams either scoring or allowing five or more goals in a game. I look for the trend of high scoring games, on both sides, to continue. 10* Over Predators/Lightning

9* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  The race for the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference is going to be insane. All but really three teams (Buffalo, Toronto, Columbus) are still in it as only five points separate six clubs competing for the two Wild Cards.  We have two of those six here. Pittsburgh has been hot recently, that was until they were a shut out (3-0) by the Rangers Wednesday night. They've still won 7 of 10, however, and that has them in fourth in the Metro (tied for final Wild Card). That's better than Carolina, who has only split its L10 games after dropping their last. It was a 2-1 loss at Montreal all the way back on Sunday, but don't look for this long layoff to help as the 'Canes are just 7-15 when playing w/ three or more days of rest.  I'm backing the road team here.

This is the fourth meeting of the season between these division rivals. The Hurricanes took the first two, both by one goal and one in overtime, before the Pens struck back w/ a 5-0 shutout at the Igloo last month.  Carolina has had the edge in shots in all three games, but as we know goaltending has been a concern for this team all year. Their collective save percentage is just above .900, which is fifth worst in the league.  As I've gone through previously, the 'Canes have solid possession numbers and rank 2nd in Corsi/3rd in Fenwick for the year. But lately, they have given up plenty of shots (31.0 per game L5), yet have gotten better than expected play between the pipes. Pittsburgh is an offense that they will likely be unable to keep in check.

The Penguins had averaged an impressive 4.14 goals per game during a 6-1 stretch, twice scoring six times in a game. But they ran into Henrik Lundqvist Wednesday and he stopped all 34 the Pens put on net. Despite the bad result on the scoreboard, it was actually a good edge in shots for the Pens (34-22) in that game. It's been 30 or more shots in 11 straight games for Pittsburgh.  Marc-Andre Fleury has really been outstanding in goal for them as well, at least in division contests where his save percentage is .932. Neither team has been strong on the power play, so this one comes down to 5 on 5 and there the Pens have the edge.  9* Pittsburgh

8* Buffalo (7:00 ET):  The reason for the suspension of Buffalo's leading scorer Lamonte Bearden has been revealed (marijuana) and he will continue to be out for the next few games. His absence did seem to cost the team Tuesday as they lost here at home to Toledo by just two points. That setback snapped a four-game SU and ATS win streak by the Bulls, who now trail first place Akron (best team in the MAC) by 1.5 games in the East Division.  The natural inclination is going to be to continue to fade UB w/o Bearden, but note that they were actually playing just fine w/o him vs. the Rockets as they led most of the way (by nine at half) and it was only when foul trouble struck that things went bad. I'm calling for them to bounce back as this is a good value in the wake of the Bearden news. Lay the short number.

Here at home, Buffalo is averaging a strong 81.3 points per game. They managed only 69 in Tuesday's loss to Toledo, which most will want to attribute to Bearden being out, but they actually shot the ball just fine (much better than Toledo, in fact). The issue was defense, or rather of lack of it in the second half where they gave up 43 points. Much of that damage came at the free throw line as the Rockets went 19 of 23, thus nullifying the fact that UB held them to just 37% shooting from the field, including 6 of 26 from three-point range. Incredibly, the Bulls attempted only nine free throws themselves in the game w/ the starting five accounting for only three of those!

I've yet to even mention tonight's opponent (probably should!). That would be Ohio, who is coming off a minor upset (were +1.5) at Ball State its last time out. The Bobcats are now just a game back of UB in the MAC East standings after winning four of five (only loss was to Akron), but the road had previously been unkind to them. OU lost its first three MAC road games, the most egregious result obviously being a 72-49 loss at Central Michigan.  Lack of defense has been an issue for the Bobcats, who give up 78.8 points per game outside of Athens. Look for the three-point shot to be the difference here as Ohio is allowing teams to shoot nearly 40% from behind the arc when on the road this season while Buffalo holds its opponents to just 28% here at home. Defense helps the Bulls overcome the loss of Bearden.  8* Buffalo

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET):  It's a matchup of two of the league's worst teams Thursday night and I'll be siding with the one that's at home. After getting a four-game trip out East off to a positive start (7-2 win over Ottawa), the Oilers proceeded to drop the next three while getting outscored 15-3.  The nadir of the trip clearly was Sunday's 8-1 loss to the Islanders. But they won't be facing the Isles here, instead it's the Maple Leafs, who have their own set of problems. Namely, giving up 10 goals in B2B losses, plus overall Toronto has dropped six of its last eight games. Interestingly, the loser here is guaranteed to go into the weekend w/ the fewest number of points in the entire league. So there should be at least some motivation and in their return home, I like Edmonton.

The Oilers are just terrible on the road. They have a league-low seven wins (in 30 games), but on home ice things aren't so bad. In fact, they have a winning record (14-10-1) and won here 5-1 over Columbus (another last place team) right after the All-Star Break, the last time they got to play at Rexall Place.  That was followed up by the seven-goal outburst at Ottawa and with Connor McDavid back in the fold, it appeared as if Edmonton might be set to take off.  But that road trip obviously did not end well, particularly when they finished w/ only 20 shots on goal vs. New Jersey on Tuesday.  However, it should be noted that both goals scored by the Devils in that one came via the power play and that's something that can easily be corrected. Toronto's power play is not to be feared as it ranks 29th in the league at 15.4 percent.

The Leafs just made a big trade (w/ Ottawa), but the result was a familiar one Tuesday as they fell 4-3 in Calgary.  The bad news is that the team is 6-12 this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. They did have a big edge in shots (36-22) over the Flames, but at the end of the day it didn't matter as opposing goaltenders have a .936 save percentage against them the L5 games. Toronto's own goaltending situation is less than ideal w/ tonight's likely starter James Reimer having posted an .887 save percentage the L4 games. Also, the Maple Leafs are just 11-18 on the road.  8* Edmonton

8* Indiana (9:00 ET):  These teams are tied a top the Big 10 in terms of scoring differential on a per possession basis, but that's of little consolation to IU who lost (as nine-point favorites) at Penn State Saturday night. That 68-63 setback allowed Iowa to take the lead in the conference, but the one game gap that exists between these two can be immediately closed if the Hoosiers are able to bounce back w/ a win tonight. Given that the game takes place in Bloomington, where the Hoosiers are a perfect 13-0 straight up this season, I like their chances.  Iowa's stock is quite high right now (ranked #4 in the country!) as they have lost only one time (at Maryland) since December 10th. But that stock is probably due to take a hit and I can't believe that the Hoosiers aren't getting more credit for being the home team here. Lay the small number.

Indiana would likely have a better record were it not for one key issue, that being turnovers, which have plagued them throughout the Big 10 campaign. They had been somewhat improving in that department recently, but against Penn State had 15 and that cost them. It also hurts that the Hoosiers haven't really been forcing turnovers either (just 21 L3 games) of late. But I view that as simply a temporary nosedive and nothing else. Consider that in the three games previous, IU had forced 43 TO's. What really burned them against Penn State was shooting only 36.2 percent from the field, including only eight made 2-pt field goals! Keep in mind that this is a team which averages 84.1 points per game on 51.1 percent shooting overall, including 42.2 from three-point range.  Those offensive numbers are downright historic as you'd have to go back to the 2001-02 Kansas team to find the last time a squad averaged more than 85 PPG while being above the 50%/40% thresholds. Here at home, the Hoosiers are averaging a whopping 91.1 PPG!

Iowa has won its last three games all by double digit margins (3-0 ATS), so again, they're stock is currently quite high. But I find it telling that they were 5.5-pt dogs at Maryland (and didn't cover, mind you), yet come in as closer to a Pick 'em here. All four Hawkeye losses this season have come away from home and three of those have been in the underdog role.  IU, meanwhile, is 17-7 ATS the L24 times it has been a home favorite of three points or less. Look for them to cure the turnover "ills" and bounce back offensively, leading to a big win.  8* Indiana

10* California (9:00 ET):  Right now, Oregon is the hottest team in the Pac 12 as they have won and covered six straight, leaving them 1.5 games up on the rest of the field. But, despite winning at Arizona (as seven-point underdogs), I'm not entirely convinced that the Ducks are the best team in the conference. Quite frankly, I'm a bit surprised that they come in as the favorite here in Berkeley considering they barely escaped w/ only a three-point win against Cal up in Eugene last month. I was on the Bears in that one and while I pushed at +3, many could have won as the number was bet up closer to tip off.  Cal is a bubble team, desperate for a win over a marquee opponent, and once again we can take advantage of the fact that one team has a little number next to its name (i.e ranked in the Top 25) while the other does not. Take the points here.

Cal's results in conference play have followed a predictable pattern: they win at home and lose on the road.  In fact, they have not lost at Haas Pavilion all year (14-0 SU, +15.8 PPG) including a perfect 5-0 vs. the rest of the Pac 12 following Saturday's big 76-61 win over rival Stanford.  There, the Bears jumped out to a 16-point halftime lead and never looked back, going up by as many as 26 at one point. As I've written about before, this is a talented team up front w/ plenty of size. I had them here at home against Arizona and they also downed Utah when the Utes came in ranked. Freshmen Ivan Rabb (five straight games w/ 10+ points) and Jaylen Brown (8 straight!) are both contributing in a manner that you like to see.

Oregon was able to beat Arizona on the road despite allowing 61% shooting in that game, which is hard to reconcile.  The Ducks' defense allowed Utah to shoot 50% from the floor Sunday, so there are defensive issues here.  Keep in mind that this team has lost at both Oregon State and Colorado earlier this year.  Looking back at the first meeting between these two squads it's easy to identify why Cal lost and that's the fact they were 0 for 12 from three-point range. That performance will not be repeated tonight. As expected, the Bears outscored the Ducks by a wide margin in the paint and that should be repeated here. Cal is the top defensive team in the Pac 12, giving up just 66.7 PPG on 38.8 percent shooting. Those numbers are even better here at home.  10* California

10* Eastern Washington (9:05 ET):  Something that you may be unaware of is that Eastern Washington has one of the strongest home court edges in the entire country.  The Eagles are a perfect 8-0 straight up playing in Cheney this season, which may not sound like anything special, but consider that their average margin of victory here is a whopping 25.9 points per game thanks to a 96.0 PPG scoring average on 55.7% overall shooting! Therefore, laying a relatively short number doesn't seem like too big of a risk, particularly considering their opponent is due to "nosedive" following an upset in their most recent game. Also, this is a revenge spot for EWU to boot as they fell 79-71 (as two-point chalk) at North Dakota back on January 2nd.

The upset I spoke of for North Dakota came Saturday at home vs. Weber State as the Fighting Hawks prevailed 78-71 as 4.5-pt pups. Nothing in particular really "stood out" in the upset, save for the obvious edge in free throw shooting that most home teams get to enjoy. North Dakota not only made more free throws than Weber State attempted, but their percentage (87.5%) at the charity stripe was key as well. Interestingly enough, this is a team whose season-long average there is only 67.6% and they have really benefited from their opponents shooting a terrible 59.9 percent from the line. On the road, I wouldn't look for North Dakota to enjoy the same free throw edge that they had at home vs. Weber State.

Eastern Washington has now won four straight and they and North Dakota are tied for third in the Big Sky at 7-4 SU in conference play.  So this game clearly carries a lot of importance. As alluded to above, there is some clear value w/ this line as the Eagles were two-point favorites when they visited Grand Forks and lost 79-71.  But the change in venue here is very significant as is the fact EWU shot only 38.2% on two-point attempts in that first meeting. Like I said earlier, the offensive numbers for them here at home are downright otherworldly, so the revenge angle (which is often overrated) definitely applies here. We're talking about roughly a 25 PPG swing in what EWU averages at home compared to on the road.  10* Eastern Washington

10* Over Bruins/Jets (8:05 ET):  The potential for a lot of scoring is certainly present tonight in Winnipeg as the Jets host a Boston club that was flat out embarrassed at home Tuesday night. The result I'm speaking of was a 9-2 loss to the Kings where they surrendered 57 shots (most by a Bruins' opponent since '65!). The nine goals allowed were the most by the Bruins since giving up 10 (really?) in '08. Winnipeg certainly has not been shy about scoring of late w/ 17 goals scored in its L5 games, nor were they shy the last time they played Boston, the result of which was a 6-2 victory in the season opener. They've only been able to match that threshold twice, both times coming in early December. They may not get there again tonight, but they don't have to as the Bruins will certainly contribute as well.  Take the Over.

A game like Tuesday's will obviously skew Boston's statistics, but I think it's important to note that the 57 shots given up vs. LA was the culmination of a stretch where they'd allowed 35 or more in four of their previous five contests.  The team is just 22nd in goals allowed for the season. Tuukka Rask, who was pulled after allowing five goals on 32 shots in the debacle vs. LA, has not fared well this season in non-conference games. His save percentage is just .889 in 13 games vs. the West and that includes allowing five more goals on a nearly identical number of shots (31) in the first meeting with Winnipeg. It of course didn't help that the penalty killing unit failed miserably vs. the Kings, allowing them to score all three times they had a man advantage.

Lest we forget, the Bruins also can score as they rank third in the league in goals per game and second on the power play.  The Jets are 25th in goals allowed this season, lower than Boston, and the Over is 5-2 in their home games when the total is 5.0.  In losing seven of their last nine home games, they have allowed an average of 3.7 goals per game. Their PK unit, which is ranked 28th in the league, would be a disaster matched up against Boston's prolific power play.  Boston is 4th in the league w/ 31.9 shots per game and over the last five games, both they and Winnipeg are averaging more than 33/game.  The Jets appear likely to give the starting nod to Connor Hellebuyck, who has an .886 save percentage his L4 starts.  10* Over Bruins/Jets

10* Under Pelicans/Thunder (8:05 ET):  New Orleans scratched out a win last night, 100-96 vs. Utah, thanks to a 29-19 scoring edge in the fourth quarter.  That was the team's second straight win while scoring 100+ points after suffering through a four-game losing streak where they failed to score 100 even one time. In terms of opponent, it's a big change tonight as they go from facing the Jazz (30th in pace of play) to facing the Thunder (#2 in offensive efficiency). Oddsmakers obviously then have to make a massive adjustment in the total and that's what we have here w/ the number more than 25 pts higher than what it was for New Orleans last night, when in addition to winning themselves, the Over just barely cashed as well. This would be the highest total they've seen all season though. Take the Under.

Oklahoma City is a hot team right now. They've won 14 of their last 16 games while averaging 112.4 points per game, last beating Phoenix 122-106 Monday night. Of the 10 games this season where the total has been 220 pts or higher, OKC has been involved in four of them. What's interesting is that this will be the first time all season that we have a total of 220+ and it's not some pairing of Warriors, Thunder, Rockets, Kings or Wizards. The Thunder have gone Over in seven of their last nine games overall, but both Unders saw totals higher than the 220 threshold. Clearly, recent results on both sides have influenced this number. Note that four of the last meetings between these two clubs have gone Over (one push), but we're looking at a substantially higher number than the last time they met & that game just barely got Over the total (by half a point).

Something that I expect to start improving is the Thunder's defense. Over the L5 games, they've given up an average of 108.4 PPG to opponents. The Suns even shot better than 50% from the field against them Monday night. But for the season, they are allowing just 98.9 PPG here at home. At the same time, OKC's own scoring average of 115.4 PPG from its last five contests should start to go down as well.  The Pelicans' O/U record has a strong correlation with whether or not they are at home vs. on the road as it's 19-7 vs. 6-19-1. The difference is that they average about seven full points per game less on the road. The Thunder are 7-1 Under this year when playing w/ exactly two days rest.  10* Under Pelicans/Thunder

8* Under Raptors/T'wolves (8:05 ET):  I had the Under in Toronto's game Monday night in Detroit and still easily cashed in spite of them shooting 55.7% (season-high for a Pistons opponent). It's hard to envision the Raptors shooting that well again, even against a pretty bad team like Minnesota, who is allowing an average of 107.6 points its last five games.  The Raptors' offensive numbers have been up for much of 2016, but as I discussed in the Under play Monday night, on the road they are still averaging only 99.1 PPG.  Offensive numbers might be set to decline for this team, but the defense should improve as they are Top 10 in efficiency and allow only 97.0 PPG. Minnesota, similarly, has seen higher scoring games than usual recently compared to YTD results. I'm going back to the Under w/ the Raptors here.

The T'wolves have seen a recent offensive surge themselves as they are averaging 106.0 PPG their last five contests. I do not suspect that they'll be able to keep that up.  Prior to a 116-102 loss, here at home, to New Orleans Monday night, they had shot 50% or better for three consecutive games, peaking w/ an otherworldly 57.5% against the defensively inept Lakers. The Raptors team they face tonight just gave up only 89 on the road in the victory over Detroit. In only three of their last nine games has Toronto allowed more than 97 points.  Minnesota averages just 99.1 PPG for the year at home where the Under is cashing at 60 percent when they are an underdog. The T'wolves current stretch of scoring 100+ pts in four straight games is their longest since mid-December.

So while Toronto should hold Minnesota in check, what about their own recent offensive numbers? They are impressive, but again, I wouldn't look for them to match Monday's shooting percentage, which was their highest in any road game all season. Minnesota's own defensive numbers are set to improve after allowing about four more points per game over their last five compared to the season-long average.  As a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, the Raptors are 2-0 Under this year and the Under is 16-9 when they face a team w/ a losing record.  This is set to be the highest total in any Raptors game in more than two months. Also, after shooting 23 of 39 from three-point range the L2 games, look for the Raptors to suffer a decline in that department as well. Speaking of three-point shooting, no team makes fewer per game than Minnesota and that helps here as well.  8* Under Raptors/T'wolves

10* Detroit (7:35 ET): This will be the third consecutive Pistons game where I am making a play and I'm trying to make it a perfect 3 for 3.  I faded them Saturday night in Indiana and they lost 112-104 as four-point underdogs. Then on Monday, I was all over the Under in their game (here at home) vs. Toronto and sure enough that ended up being an easy double digit winner. As I've mentioned previously, this team is only 5-8 straight up since its upset of Golden State back on January 16th. But as that upset proved, this is a team to be feared at home. They remain in the Motor City tonight for a game w/ a Denver team that has been punching winning tickets left and right lately, but that's a streak I don't believe will continue. Lay the points.

I think the Nuggets reached their proverbial "tipping point" Monday night when they were a road favorite (in Brooklyn) for just the second time all season. They lost (by just a single point), which shouldn't come as too big of a shock due to the fact this is a team w/ just 10 road wins to its credit all season and the majority of those wins came at the expense of bad teams. Having covered 11 of their last 13 games overall, I suspect we will see Denver start to "give some back" at the betting window not just here, but after the All-Star Break as well.  Looking at just the last five games, the Nuggets are not only scoring above their season average offensively, but also giving up far fewer points per game on defense. This is a case of a bad team playing above its head for a short-term period of time. They will begin to regress back to their normal level of play.

  Meanwhile, Detroit has played below expectations over its last five games.  This is a team that has outscored opponents over the course of the year, but in those last five they are -3.6 PPG, not indicative of YTD performance. Here at home, the numbers are even more impressive as the Pistons are 16-9 SU/16-8-1 ATS w/ an average margin of victory of +5.7 PPG.  Defensively, they should start to improve from the L2 games where they allowed Indiana and Toronto to shoot 53.9% and 55.7% respectively. Improving their own 89 point performance from Monday is all but guaranteed (Nuggets allow 103.6 PPG) and this is a revenge spot from a loss suffered just 2.5 weeks ago when the Pistons were actually 4.5-point chalk (lost by 3) and led at one point by as many as 14 points. 10* Detroit

8* Detroit (7:05 ET): Admittedly, I'm not sold on the Red Wings over the long-term. They have been able to stay in the "safe zone" (top three) in the Atlantic for much of the season despite an inferior goal differential compared to the competition. Right now, they have scored the same number of goals that they have allowed this season. It was a somewhat ugly start after the All-Star Break w/ losses to two division rivals, Tampa Bay and Florida, but both came on the road. A return home led to a drastic change in results the L2 games as they've beaten the Islanders and Florida (revenge spot!) by a combined score of 8-1.  Tonight, they host an Ottawa team whose four games since the Break have followed a similar pattern, only w/ more disparate results.  I am on the home team in this one.

The Senators first came out of the Break by allowing an astounding 13 goals in losses to Pittsburgh and Edmonton. In particular, a 7-2 loss to the Oilers was really embarrassing. But surprisingly, they quickly turned things around, first w/ a 6-1 win over Toronto and then a 5-1 win over Tampa Bay. But both of those wins came at home.  One thing that's worth noting here is the high number of shots the Sens are allowing. They, in fact, allow the most per game (33.1) in the entire league. Since the Break, they've been outshot in three of the four games, the exception ironically coming against Edmonton.  That obviously speaks to the goaltending and while Craig Anderson has been sharp the last two games, the fact remains that this team ranks 28th in goals allowed this season and is giving up a horrifying average of 3.6 gpg on the road.

Detroit started the season ranking near the bottom in the league in shots per game, but they've seen that number steadily rise to the point where it is no longer a serious issue.  They had 31 in Monday's shutout win over the Panthers and unlike Ottawa there is a reliable option to turn to in goal here, that being Petr Mrazek, who has been unbelievable over his L11 starts w/ a 1.18 goals against average and .955 save percentage. That includes a pair of shutouts in his L5 starts. The Wings have already won twice in Ottawa this season and should have a big edge tonight on home ice. 8* Detroit

10* George Washington (7:00 ET):  There is just one team in the country w/o a road loss and surprisingly it is St. Joe's, who is 8-0 straight up and against the spread in games that take place in their opponents' gyms. Quietly, the Hawks are 19-4 SU overall and their margin of victory away from home is +8.8 points per game, so I suppose there is no "flukiness" about this at all. But still, I'm not all that sold on this team as the A-10 schedule has been relatively light, save for a three-point loss at home to VCU.  Speaking of VCU, George Washington just beat them, a major win that should be celebrated. The Colonials were nine-point road dogs in that one and now return home where they've gone 12-1 SU this year. Lay the short number here.

GW's one home loss came in double overtime, to Richmond, on January 28th.  Since then, the Colonials have rattled off three straight wins, clearly the most impressive of which took place on Saturday. One of the best free throw shooting teams in the entire country, they were just 10 of 18 from the charity stripe Saturday. That makes beating VCU look all the more impressive. Consider that the Rams hadn't lost since December 15th.  Playing against teams with a winning record, GW is 12-3 SU and 9-5 ATS. Normally, I might call for a letdown after a win like the one GW had over the weekend, but the fact is their avg MOV is +12.2 PPG and it's not like they played "above their heads" vs. VCU. The spread is also too low here.

St. Joe's is obviously due to not only lose a game on the road, but also fail to cover.  They won Saturday, but were coming off surprising loss there and the opponent was Fordham, who has been the worst team in the A-10 for years. To this point, the road schedule has not been all that challenging for the Hawks, who have mostly drawn the bottom of the league for their away dates. That changes in a major way here. Consider that they were getting more points against an inferior (compared to GW) Rhode Island squad at the end of January. That win was followed up by a home loss to St. Bonaventure last week. Then they shot better than they had in any game all season vs. lowly Fordham (only game better than 50%!).  They are the ones that will be unable to match their performance level from the previous game. 10* George Washington

10* Florida (9:00 ET):  The Gators recorded a big win for me (was on them) and themselves two Saturdays ago when they whipped a very good West Virginia team here in Gainesville, 88-71. Since then, things haven't gone nearly as well, especially in a blowout loss at Kentucky Saturday.  In between, their was a narrow win over Arkansas here at home by four points where they did not cover. However, as I went through in my analysis for the WVU-Florida game, the Gators are absolutely better than their record as they rate highly according to most computer rankings. Note that before the disaster Saturday in Lexington, three of the team's last four losses had been by three points or less. Lay the points here as I'll call for a big win.

Ole Miss comes in here off an outright win, at home, over Vanderbilt Saturday. They won 85-78 as three-point dogs, but that was after trailing by as many as 11 points in the second half. Part of the impetus for the Rebels' comeback was Vandy getting into major foul trouble. Ole Miss ended up making as many free throws as Vandy even attempted.  That helped nullify a somewhat dreadful 35.8 FG%.  That's really been nothing new, however, as the Rebels are barely shooting even 40 percent in SEC play, so it has to be somewhat of a surprise that they are even .500 in conference action.  Last month in Oxford, they were better than that average, but still lost to this Florida team (80-71) and trailed by 19 going into the Break.

The revenge angle is often overrated in handicapping circles and I believe that to be the case here. Despite Florida winning by nine in Oxford, there's been no real adjustment by the linesmakers for this rematch even though the Gators are 11-1 SU in Gainesville, winning by an average margin of 17.7 points per game. Florida has responded from its previous three SEC losses by winning and covering the next time out, every time.  The last time we saw them in this spot was the West Virginia game.  It was a huge early hole that the Gators fell into in Lexington Saturday, but they basically played UK pretty even in the second half.  The Top 25 has essentially accounted for almost all of Florida's losses this year, but that's not Ole Miss. 10* Florida

8* New York (8:05 ET):  The Knicks just fired Derek Fisher due to losing 9 of their last 10 games, including five straight. They are now 4.5 games out of the playoff chase and it's definitely been an ugly stretch as they've been outscored by 9.2 points per game during the losing streak. However, that's a bit misleading as there was one bad loss (here at home) to Golden State, 116-95.  The last three losses have all been by six points or less. As we all know, after something like coaching change, teams often improve over the short-term. That's what I expect here from the Knicks and they have a tailor-made opponent in the Wizards, who are awful defensively.  Lay the short number.

Note that the Knicks are currently eight games below .500. That includes an 0-7 record w/o Carmelo Anthony, which is no coincidence.  He has been on the floor for four of the team's last five losses, missing only the Memphis game. But he was back vs. Denver on Sunday and after a slow start, finished w/ 21 points, six rebounds and seven assists.  Overall, the team's shooting was better against the Nuggets than it had been the previous four games. Anthony has been out for three of the team's last nine losses. He is scheduled to play here. With Kurt Rambis taking the reigns tonight, there should be sense of urgency, especially playing at home.  Consider that in two of the past three games, the Knicks fell behind big early, came back to take the lead but then lost.

While the Knicks have been disappointing lately, the Wizards have been disappointing all season. I've written about all season how their increased pace of play has brought little to no success.  Their fourth in pace of play, but only 16th in offensive efficiency. Defensively, they are awful, giving up 105.4 points per game and lately have been worse (114.4 PPG allowed L5 games). Saturday they gave up 108 in a loss to Charlotte where they actually held a 19-point lead early. Though it was a long-time ago, the Knicks did win 117-110 in D.C. back on Halloween. Washington has won and covered four straight at MSG, a streak that I cannot see continuing.  The Wiz are 0-3 SU/ATS as a road dog of 3 pts or less this season. 8* New York

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  The Wild are in a bit of a precarious spot entering this critical matchup. We know that it's very likely that the Central will send five teams to the playoffs (both Wild Cards), but currently Minnesota is sixth in the division, three points back of Colorado for that final spot. The Wild had been on solid ground for much of the season, but recently things have fallen apart with them losing 9 of 10 overall including all three games since the All-Star Break. But tonight marks the first time they've been back on home ice since January 25th. With only eight regulation losses, the Wild have been solid at the XCel Center this season and w/ Dallas having given up plenty of goals since the Break, I'm banking on Minnesota breaking through tonight.

These teams have already played four times this season. The Stars, who got off to such a red-hot start to the season, won the first three. But Minnesota did win in Dallas last month, 2-1.  The Stars have generally had the edge in shots in all four meetings (Wild were +1 in a home loss Dec 21st) and over their L5 games overall have really done a great job at outshooting their opponents. But considering the road team has won the last three times these two have played, I think it's time for the proverbial tables to turn. Dallas did just lose 5-1 to Chicago on Saturday, at home, and that makes it 11 goals allowed in three games since the Break. The Stars may be pointing towards a revenge spot, Thursday in Chicago, and thus overlooking this game.  The Wild will not be overlooking anything given the current state of affairs. 

Making it all the more likely that the home team is poised to breakthrough here is that Minnesota has actually lost five in a row at home. Never in franchise history has the team lost six straight home games. They are actually still 9th in goals allowed this season. Though they did lose 4-1 at St. Louis on Saturday, note they did outshoot the Blues 39-24 and had a franchise record 24 in the second period alone. Allowing three power play goals doomed them in that one as did going just 1 for 7 themselves w/ the man advantage. This team is poised to turn things around tonight.  10* Minnesota

8* Drake (8:00 ET):  By some metrics, Drake is the unluckiest team in the entire country. They are, in fact, 0-7 SU in games decided by six points or less this season. One of those losses came at Iowa.  Things were not close when the Bulldogs first played Wichita State as the final score there was 67-47. But the good news for the rematch is that we're getting a ton of value. The spread here is nearly identical to what it was the first go around despite the change in venue and the fact Drake nearly covered in Wichita.  I played against the Shockers Saturday night remember and they lost outright (as 12.5-point favorites) to Illinois State. As I said in my analysis there, this team is due to start regressing after a ridiculously dominant start to MVC play.  Take the points.

Wichita State came into Saturday night's game 11-0 SU (10-1 ATS) in Missouri Valley play (conference is down this year), winning by an average margin of 20.4 points per game.  That average margin of victory certainly took a bit of hit w/ the loss to Illinois State, which again was an outright loss as 12.5-point chalk. Yes, they did have a 16-point lead in the second half before imploding down the stretch, but the expectation of a bounce back in this spot has led to an overinflated line. Consider that the Shockers held ISU to 27.3 percent shooting and still lost. It was only their third MVC loss in the L3 seasons and they are 0-2 ATS off the previous two losses. They are also 2-6 ATS the L3 seasons after scoring 60 points or less.

Drake was victimized by a hot shooting Northern Iowa team last time out as the Panthers finished 61.8 percent from the field. As good as Wichita State has been this year, I doubt that they'll be that sharp offensively here. In fact, the Shockers were just 35.2 percent from the field against Illinois State.  One key area for Drake in this game is three-point shooting. They actually lead the conference in that department at 40.3 percent, which is very good.  They made only 10 two-point shots in the first meetings w/ Wichita State, a number that almost HAS to go up here. The Shockers can also be had on the glass and that's good for the Bulldogs, who have outrebounded five straight opponents. 8* Drake

10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET):  You probably won't see a more lopsided score all year than what the Isles did to Edmonton Sunday. It was an 8-1 final as they scored on seven of the first 10 shots they took. Considering they'd lost their last two games and have now slipped to fourth in the Metro and eighth overall in the Eastern Conference, that was a much needed result. But it's all about "how you follow it up" and for the Isles, they are fortunate to be playing last place Columbus Tuesday. Now going back to before the All-Star Break, the Blue Jackets have won four of five including B2B wins in Western Canada. But them sustaining this success seems unlikely given that there's been only a single three-game win streak for them all season long. I'm backing the favorite in this one.

Eight times this season, Columbus has managed to post B2B victories. Only once have they won the next time out and made it three straight. That was all the way back in mid-November. Last time in this situation happened to be the first game after the Break when they lost 5-1 at Edmonton.  They've since responded w/ consecutive 2-1 victories over Vancouver and Calgary, but they were actually outshot significantly in both contests (69 to 46). Remember that the Jackets still are tied for the fewest points in the league (47) and have the worst goal differential (-32) thanks to being 30th (i.e. last) in goals allowed. Joonas Korpisalo has been a bit of a revelation between the pipes, but I'm just not sure how long that can last.

The Blue Jackets last six victories have all come at the expense of struggling teams. They've had a lot more difficulty contending w/ the division rival Islanders this year, losing all three matchups by a combined score of 12-4. One thing you have to like about the Isles is that they have become a more physical team as they lead the league in number of hits per game. They also have the second ranked penalty kill. The road has not been all that kind to them this season, but twice they've won here in Columbus.  Goalie Jaroslav Halak has been sharp recently vs. the Jackets, going 5-0-2 w/ a 2.22 goals against average the last seven matchups. 10* NY Islanders

8* Under Raptors/Pistons (7:35 ET): If you had simply bet the Over in every Pistons' home game the past three seasons, then you'd be 66-36-4 (15-9 this year), which is quite the return on investment. However, assuming you have NOT done this, might I recommend you to now start looking to go the other way?  Recent defensive efforts have not been strong for Detroit, including allowing 112 pts in a loss to Indiana two nights ago. I backed the Pacers in that one (covered), but little did I know the game would end up that high scoring. Six of the Pistons' last seven games have now gone Over, so maybe I shouldn't have been surprised at the amount of scoring. Yet they still are allowing just 98.9 PPG for the year at home and I would expect them to start reverting back to that average, sooner rather than later. Take the Under.

Seven of the last eight matchups between Toronto and Detroit have gone Over the total. That includes a January 30th meeting "North of the Border," which was won by the Raptors, 111-107. Note, however, that the two teams combined for a preposterous 81 free throw attempts in that game, much of them coming in a fourth quarter where 65 total points were scored. Thus, a decrease in the free throw shooting department is very likely here considering the average # of FT attempts these two combine to shoot in a game this year is just 52.  Speaking of due to decrease, overall scoring in Raptors games has been up over the last five games by an average of about eight points compared to season long averages.  Like the Pistons, much of that has to do w/ the defensive end of the floor. For the year, Toronto allows just 97.2 PPG. 

Detroit is a terrible shooting team, one of the worst in the league as matter of fact. I talked a bit about this in my analysis for their game at Indiana.   In terms of a true shooting percentage, which takes into account free throws, only the Lakers are worse. Their struggles at the line are almost all owed to Andre Drummond and note that despite getting all those attempts last week vs. Toronto (34), they only converted 20. The Raptors, meanwhile, got to the line a ridiculous 47 times in that game. That's certainly highly unlikely to be duplicated here on the road where they average just 99.5 PPG anyways.  The bottom line is that I expect both teams to be significantly better defensively (and not foul as much) compared to the last meeting.  8* Under Raptors/Pistons

10* Indiana (7:05 ET):  All of a sudden, the Lakers are playing decent basketball as they're actually 3-0 ATS in February. After winning their first two games this month straight up, they easily covered Saturday night in San Antonio (as 17-pt dogs), losing only by four. But I wouldn't expect this recent "surge" to go on for much longer. This is still the worst team in the league from where I sit as they are being outscored by nearly 11 points per 100 possessions. Defensively, they are the worst team in the league in terms of efficiency. Offensively, they are dead last in both true shooting and effective field goal percentages. So there's just not much to like here, particularly the hideous coaching job Byron Scott has done this season. I am expecting the Lakers to revert back to their typical ways tonight and lose big in Indiana. Lay the points.

I took the Pacers in their last game and they rewarded me w/ a 112-104 win and cover over the Pistons.  January did not go all that well for Frank Vogel's team, but lately things have improved w/ four wins in the last six games and one of the losses was to Cleveland in overtime. Offensively, Indiana's recent numbers have been quite strong and while normally you might want to bet on them regressing, such a phenomenon is unlikely to occur here given how bad the Lakers are defensively.  I think that the key here will be the Pacers defense, which is usually pretty sound, particularly at home. They're allowing just 98.2 PPG here but have recently been above that number.  Keep in mind though that two of their last five games did go to overtime.  Something else that caught my eye is that when these teams first met this season, back in November at LA, the Pacers were 10-point favorites. They didn't cover, but now we're essentially getting to lay the same number at home. That's value.

Kobe Bryant's retirement tour makes for some nice storylines during the course of the season, but the fact remains that he's stunting the growth of the younger talent on the roster through the empowerment of Scott.  The Lakers haven't been quite as bad defensively of late due to holding New Orleans to only 96 pts in an upset win Thursday night, but have still given up at least 100 in 11 of the last 13 games.  As for the offense, only one time in the past 16 games have they been at 50% or above!  Bryant may not even play here (shoulder), but if he does, I'd expect him to curtail from recent efforts as he remains the league's worst shooter at 35.4 percent.  The Pacers should also dominate the boards in this game. 10* Indiana

8* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): This is a double revenge spot for the Blueshirts, who have twice lost to the Devils by one goal this season. The more recent loss came in the first game after the All-Star Break, in New Jersey, despite a 33-25 edge in shots on goal. As I've written about several times before, I have major issues with the Devils' long-term sustainability due to their last place ranking in number of shots per game.  You'll recall that I just went against them as recently as Thursday (and was successful in doing so) as they fell to Toronto in a shootout. They actually finished w/ 34 shots in that one (3rd most in any game this season), but were then back down to 24 again in Saturday's 3-2 vs. Washington, which also went to a shootout. The Rangers, meanwhile, have won B2B games. They're hotter and have revenge, so they get the call here.

It's certainly not a surprise to me to see the Devils rank 29th in the league in goals per game. Their average of 24.4 shots per game is three less than the 29th place team in that particular department, which is the same gap that exists between the 29th place team 11th place team in shots. They rank 29th in Corsi and 30th in Fenwick, again not a good sign. What we basically have here is a team that leans far too much on goalie Corey Schneider.  While a hot netminder can absolutely carry a team in the playoffs, doing so over the long haul of the regular season is a bit more problematic. Schnieder is second in the league in starts w/ 44 and I don't know just how much longer he can keep his level of play up this high. Note that New Jersey has given up a game-tying goal late in regulation in each of the L2 games.

A late score in regulation got the Rangers into extra time Saturday vs. the Flyers where they won in a shootout. Offense is not much of a concern here as the team ranks 5th in the league in goals per game. Between the pipes, we know who will be there as former Vezina winner Henrik Lundqvist has a 1.64 goals against average his last six starts against the Devils. While only four points separate these teams in the Metro, goals scored vs. allowed is +20 in New York's favor. They've either outshot or been tied w/ their opponent in eight straight games.  8* NY Rangers

10* Over Quinnipiac/St. Peter's (7:00 ET): The fine folks at Quinnipiac I'm sure are busy polling this political season, but hopefully they have taken some time to notice that the basketball program has won three in a row.  The Bobcats are getting it done w/ defense, but it shouldn't take a political science or a math major to tell you that such a surge in play on that end of the floor is quite uncommon. After all, this is a team that for the season is giving up 77.9 points per game on the road.  In the L2 games, the Bobcats have surrendered less than 60, so there's now a rather large discrepancy between what they've allowed recently (64.2 PPG L5 games) and what they allow for the year, at least on the road. You have to believe then that a market correction is forthcoming.  Take the Over.

While Quinnipiac's recent play on the defensive end stands out, so too does some of St. Peter's recent offensive efforts. Only the latter is not something worth bragging about as the Peacocks are only averaging a paltry 55.8 points their last five games, all of which have resulted in losses. The latest was a real ugly effort Friday at Siena where they fell 69-52. That was NOT their lowest scoring game of the year; that dubious "honor" instead goes to a 76-45 loss to Rider last month. Still though, we're talking about a team that four times has failed to crack even 60 pts over the course of the last five games. Fortunately, we do know that they are averaging 65.1 PPG for the season here at home, so again it stands to reason that a rather sizable "market correction" is set to take place here.

Both of these teams figure to start shooting better moving forward. It certainly can't get much worse. Quinnipiac is current shooting a dreadful 34.6% from the field in conference play and has actually been below that number in 8 of their last 10 games. St. Peter's shot just 35.5 percent in the loss to Siena on Friday, including 4 of 23 from three-point range. Looking at Quinnipiac's last game, they held Marist to just a single point over a three minute span and to just 27 percent shooting for the game. I'm actually shocked as to how well both of these squads have defended the three-point line this year, Quinnipiac overall (29.4 percent) and St. Peter's here at home (29.2 percent). But all those percentages simply seem unsustainable to me and looking back, both teams have had games where the O/U line was regularly at 140 pts or higher. That makes this number look like a tremendous value by comparison and wouldn't you know, this total looks to be the lowest for either side all season. 10* Over Quinnipac/St. Peters

10* Denver (6:30 ET):  I think that an ability to learn from one's own mistakes is something any good handicapper must have. With that being said, I turn to the AFC Championship Game where I of course did have the Patriots (also had the Under, which won). Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, I made a mistake there that I rarely do and that's side with the majority. Denver, despite its status as the AFC's #1 seed, was written off by many (myself included) as an unworthy Super Bowl contender before the playoffs even began. I can't speak for anyone but myself, but I pointed to a suspect point differential (just +59, 5th best in the AFC) during the regular season and a corresponding 11-3 record in close games (defined as those decided by 7 pts or less) both as a sign of incredibly good fortune that would soon go awry. Throw in legitimate concerns about Peyton Manning's health and overall skill level and you had what looked to a phony top seed. But, nevertheless, here they are (Note: I did cash a ticket going against them in the Divisional Round) and I am taking the points with them in Super Bowl 50.

Once again, it does appear as if the public is "lining up" to bet against the Broncos here. Early betting patterns had more than three-quarters of tickets/money on Carolina, very similar to the AFC Championship Game vs. New England. Though this is obviously not a home game for Denver, the line has shifted to a point that seems to justify the number for the AFC Championship Game, which was obviously inflated. Now the market is correct in believing that the Panthers are better than the Patriots. But to this degree, I think not. Remember that Carolina has also won its fair share of close games this season; eight in fact by eight points or less and five by five points or less. The last three times they have played away from home, they've either a) lost (to Atlanta) or b) won by only a field goal.

A play on Denver here clearly requires a mention of their defense, which is the league's best and one would think the main justification for taking them. Coordinator Wade Phillips (one of the best of all-time) concocted an outstanding game play against New England as the Broncos were able to regularly pressure Brady despite sending only three or four rushers. That shouldn't have been too big of a surprise considering that Denver led the league in both sack and pressure rate. Now they didn't have to concern themselves much w/ a virtually non-existent Patriots running game and a big difference here will be worrying about Cam Newton's ability to scramble, not to mention Jonathan Stewart. But I predict this top-ranked defense (fewest yards allowed) will be up to the challenge as they allow just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. This clearly will be the best defense that Newton and Carolina have faced all season and note that the perceived league MVP was really able to bolster his numbers by facing some terrible defenses this year (faced Saints twice).  On offense, while Manning is absolutely not what he once was, he does have a deep group of receivers that can take advantage of the gaping hole Carolina has at corner opposite Josh Norman. The Broncos were 4-1 SU/4-0-1 ATS as underdogs in the regular season and one final note is that the franchise is remarkable 20-3 SU/17-4-2 ATS when playing w/ a full week of rest. While the most likely outcome here is a very narrow Carolina win, I'd take that as the pointspread is simply too high.  10* Denver

10* Under Panthers/Broncos (6:30 ET):  After cashing the Under in Denver's AFC Championship Game victory and the Over in Carolina's NFC Championship Game victory, I had a choice to make here and I'm again calling for another relatively low-scoring Broncos game. Certainly many of the reasons I thought the AFC Championship Game would stay Under the total still apply here.  We have Denver's defense, which gave up the fewest yards per game in the regular season and was fourth in scoring (18.5 PPG allowed). That group has now held both Pittsburgh and New England (two of the league's top offenses) under 20 points in these playoffs.  We're also now substituting in a Panthers defense, which during the regular season gave up just slightly less points per game (0.4) than the Patriots did. They just held a potentially explosive Arizona offense to just 15 points in the NFC Championship Game. Under is my top play for Super Bowl 50.

Now Carolina did go Over the NFC Champ Game total all by themselves (scored 49 pts).  But to me, without question, Denver's defense will be the best that Cam Newton and company will have faced all season.  The Broncos incredible ability to generate pressure on the quarterback (#1 in both pressure and sack rate) was fully evident against the Patriots and that was with sending only three or maybe four rushers at a time. Denver will have to respect the running game more here, but then again they allow just 3.3 yards per rush attempt. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger is the only QB to have thrown for 300+ yards against this Broncos defense this season (did it twice), but Big Ben has a much better group of receivers and the Steelers went w/ a pass-heavy approach in both games. Denver has now played 18 games this year and has allowed 20 or fewer points in two-thirds (12) of them.

Substitute Wade Phillips' defense in for virtually any other in the league and they would be the strength of just about every team. But with this year's Broncos, there is no denying that the defense has had to carry the offense.  Peyton Manning has endured easily the worst statistical season of his career this year. Since his return from injury, many of the scoring drives he has "led" have been blessed with outstanding field position. In fact, take away last week's opening TD drive vs. New England and six of their other nine scoring drives in the playoffs have gone for 30 yards or LESS, many of them resulting in only field goals. Remember that Carolina's defense also allows fewer than 20 PPG and not only did they hold Arizona to just 15 points last week, they held Seattle scoreless in the first half in the Divisional Round. I expect that both of the offenses in this game will be forced into third down quite a bit.  Avoiding turnovers (for both teams) is also key here as takeaways have led to many of the scores in both teams' games this postseason. The Panthers have returned an INT for a touchdown in both playoff games, so those final point totals are a bit misleading. Additionally, Super Bowl scoring tends to start out very slow due to all the pomp and circumstance, not to mention the layoff and stakes involved.  Look for Super Bowl 50 to be ruled by the defenses.  10* Under Panthers/Broncos

10* Fairfield (3:30 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Stags, who lost at Manhattan (by six) last month. As you'll often hear both here and likely elsewhere, the revenge angle is often overrated in handicapping circles, but today I feel it is applicable as the avenging team is undervalued coming off bad loss to MAAC leader Monmouth.  Manhattan managed to upset Monmouth (were at home) back on January 21st, but then lost 70-56 at Iona last Friday. Tuesday saw them pull another upset, this one a minor one as they were one-point home dogs in a 65-57 win over Rider. Yes, the Jaspers seem to have the edge from a scheduling perspective (three extra days to prepare), but I think Fairfield will be eager to atone for Friday's "dud" of a performance. Lay the points.

Being the home team is huge here for Fairfield.  I say that not just because of the fact they average a strong 79.5 points per game here. But, also, Manhattan is an awful 2-7 SU in "true" road games this season and being outscored by nearly 14 PPG.  Note that the Stags were actually one-point road favorites in last month's meeting, so by that measure they are clearly undervalued in this spot. Yes, there has to be some kind of adjustment by the linesmakers due to the result there, but not to this degree.  Again, Manhattan has covered only one of its eight lined road games. As alluded to above, the Jaspers are not a strong team defensively. On the road, their opponents are shooting 50 percent this season.

Fairfield has not shot well its last two games, both losses. The first was an outright loss here at home to Quinnipiac (known for their polling!). Then, against Monmouth, things got away from them in the second half (25-5 run by Monmouth). While the Stags aren't "fooling anyone" as to who they are, the fact is that this is the first time that they enter a game on a losing streak since opening the season 0-3 and that included a game vs. North Carolina.  Manhattan has won a number of close games recently, six by eight points or less since the New Year in fact.  Tuesday's win over Rider was a one-point game w/ three minutes to go & then the Broncs simply stopped scoring (literally!). Go w/ the home team and the revenge angle here. 8* Fairfield

9* Montreal (2:35 ET):  Carolina is a team that I've made it clear that is somewhat undervalued due to the fact they rank very high in both Corsi (2nd) and Fenwick (4th).  They made that assertion look pretty smart by going to Winnipeg and winning 5-3 (+115 on the ML) Friday night. But what about their chances of pulling consecutive upsets on the road? I don't think they're very high. Montreal, despite being in a tailspin w/o goaltender Carey Price, actually still ranks 3rd in both Corsi and Fenwick, meaning they have the possession numbers to match the Hurricanes and this is somewhat ideal draw.  The Habs finally won one last night (5-1 vs. Edmonton) and I look for that to carry over into this afternoon.

Going back before the All-Star Break, the Canadiens have put forth at least 30 shots in five consecutive games. They had a 36-24 edge in that department last night as they dominated the Oilers. Interesting is that the franchise has a long history of playing afternoon games on Super Bowl weekend. They are 26-18-5 in such affairs, including yday's win. It's been five straight games w/ a power play goal for Montreal and while the last time they recorded B2B wins was w/ Price between the pipes, the record this season when off a win by two or more goals is 12-5. 

In addition to the similar possession numbers, something else that makes this a better than expected matchup for the Habs is that the 'Canes are plagued by some of the same goaltending issues.  The collective save percentage of Carolina goaltenders this year is just .900, which is just 27th in the league. Cam Ward is most likely to get the start this afternoon and he has poor career marks here in Montreal w/ a 3.95 goals against average and .873 save percentage his last six starts.  It was basically one big period Friday in Winnipeg and note that the 'Canes are only 5-8 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals the previous game.  Also, remember that they lost at Calgary in their first game after the Break.  9* Montreal

8* Orlando (1:05 ET):  The Magic have taken some excruciating losses recently. Just prior to picking up their ONLY win in the L30 days, January 31st vs. Boston, three times in a four-game span they blew a double digit lead and lost.  The schedule makers have been unkind recently giving them a three-game stretch of Spurs, Thunder, Clippers. Against the Thunder, they lost on a last-second three-pointer by Kevin Durant. Overall, it has been a disastrous 2016 for Orlando as they have only two SU wins in 17 games played.  Once a league-best 21-9 ATS through their first 30 games, the Magic have covered the spread in five of those L17 games.  But, eventually, I think there's got to be a bit of a "resurgence." The Magic had covered three straight before Friday's loss to the Clippers. I like them here plus the points and likely to win the game outright. 

Atlanta is somewhat being dismissed after LY's somewhat fluky 60-win campaign.  But they're still likely to win 50 this season and probably finish w/ a high seed in the Eastern Conference. That being said, they are not in the same class as recent Magic opponents. They're a little overvalued here due to coming in on a three-game SU and ATS win streak, but consider two of those wins were at home and the other was at Philadelphia.  The Hawks still have a losing road record while giving up 101.6 points per game. They've shot the ball really well those L3 games (51.3% or better every time), but division games have given this team trouble in 2015-16. They average just 95.9 PPG vs. the rest of the Southeast, yet have somehow managed a winning (6-3 SU) record despite actually being outscored.

Orlando is 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Atlanta this year, but the one loss here at home was close (decided by just three points). The Hawks have shot nearly 50 percent from three-point range in the two games (20 of 41), so the Magic must tighten up defensively tonight.  At the same time, they're likely to shoot better here than they did in Atlanta three weeks ago (34.5 FG%). As a home dog of three points or less, Orlando has gone 3-1 SU/ATS this season.  Meanwhile, the last two times that Atlanta was a road favorite, they lost outright and one of those games came at Phoenix.  8* Orlando

8* Illinois State (10:00 ET): Maybe a later than normal start is what it will take to knock Wichita State out of the zone they've been in recently. While not "shocking" in the least that they're leading the Missouri Valley again this year, the ease with which the Shockers have mowed down their conference competition has been quite impressive. So far, they are 11-0 SU (10-1 ATS) in MVC play, winning by a startling average of 20.4 points per game. We know that the conference is "down" this year, but for the gap to be this big is something remarkable. That all being said, Illinois State is a team that can give Greg Marshall's team all they can handle. For evidence of that, look no further than last year's MVC Tournament when ISU upset them as eight-point pups.  Take the points here.

The Redbirds actually played the Shockers tough in all three meetings last year with every game decided by eight points or less.  They come into the first meeting of 2016 having won four of five overall, the lone loss coming by three at Missouri State in overtime. They followed that up with a "surprise" win (were +3) at Loyola, an underrated team, so that definitely caught my eye.  Illinois State is currently one of four teams tied at 7-4 SU in conference play, so this game actually means far more to them than it does to Wichita State.  While an upset in one game typically results in a letdown the next, I don't believe that will be the case here even though it will be very difficult for the Redbirds to match their 58.3% shooting from Wednesday. One area where they are likely to improve though is at the free throw line where they were only 17 of 25 against the Ramblers.

ISU is allowing just 64 PPG at home this year, so taking double digits seems like a real "steal" to me.  Not once in the last three seasons have they been a home dog of this size. Note that all five of Wichita State's losses this season have been out on the road.  The Shockers have covered eight straight games, which is hard to do, and I'm willing to bank that we've reached the "tipping point" with them.  This is a national TV game, which is why it's starting so late and I do expect the crowd to be a factor. Led by MiKyle McIntosh, the Redbirds are shooting 46 percent from three-point range the last four games. 8* Illinois State

8* Roy Nelson (11:00 ET):  With one fighter just 1-5 his last six fights and the other 6-1 his L7, you might be surprised to learn that it is the former favored in this battle of heavyweights. But make no mistake about it, tonight's fight represents a rather large drop in class from recent opposition for "Big Country" Roy Nelson.  Nelson certainly isn't one interested in "getting paid by the hour" and what I mean by that is that he generally lives and dies with his ability to knock his opponent out. Because of the caliber of competition in his recent fights, that outcome simply wasn't as likely. But here it is as Nelson has an opponent tailor-made for him.

Though he still lost a unanimous decision, I was impressed w/ Nelson's stamina in going a full five rounds with Josh Barnett his last time out (was the main event).  Nelson is 5-1 the last six times he hasn't had to go to the cards and like I said earlier, I expect him to win via a KO here.  However, the fact that he has stood in there with some of the best the division has to offer recently and been stopped himself just once serves him well if this one does go longer than expected or even to the scorecards.  Nelson does have a strong jiu-jitsu background and has shown improvement in his wrestling ability as well.

As for Rosholt, we know the wrestling ability is there, but he's a below-average striker and there's some question with his ability to take a punch.  It speaks volumes here that he is an underdog with the respective results these two have had recently.  Five of Rosholt's last six victories have been by decision, which is really not all that impressive.  His one loss in UFC came via first round TKO.  Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised at all if that's the way this one ended as well. 8* Roy Nelson

8* Phoenix (9:05 ET):  I went with the Suns as my 10* Game of the Week Thursday night and it paid off as they stayed within the number here at home vs. Houston, losing by only six.  By all rights, that should have been their third straight cover as last Sunday saw them blow an outright lead in the fourth quarter in Dallas and end up losing by 13. That spelled the end for Jeff Hornacek and predictably we have seen the team play a little better for interim HC Earl Watson.  They played a good Toronto team pretty tough Tuesday, losing by only seven there. For much of the game vs. Houston, they were close or had the lead.  Tonight, they host a Utah team that is playing well (five-game win streak), but is in "over its head" as a road favorite of this magnitude.  Take the points.

The Jazz just played last night and won 84-81 over Milwaukee. Many times, I'll make the case that a team playing w/o rest is being undervalued. That's not the case here though.  While Utah is very formidable defensively, they simply don't score enough to justify this lofty projection from the linesmaker.  Consider that the last two games, both at home, have seen them allow 81 pts and not cover.  Going back to a 94-80 loss at Minnesota right before the New Year, the Jazz have only two road wins and they came at the expense of the Lakers and Nets.  While 4-1 ATS in the road favorite role this season, this number threatens to be the largest they've ever had to lay and their SU road record is just 7-15 SU w/ them averaging only 96.5 points per game.  That's somewhat problematic.

Consider that the Jazz are being asked to lay more points on the road than they were at home where they first met the Suns this season. Yes, they won that game handily and Phoenix has been the worst team in the league since Christmas. But the shift in the pointspread is too severe from where I sit.  Especially because it's looking like Trey Burke will have to miss this one due to an illness.  Burke is one of the team's six double digit scorers and given the overall lack of production on that end of the floor, he will be missed.  If there's one thing that the Suns can do well, it's score, as they average 103.2 PPG here at home. 8* Phoenix

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): Trouble is starting to set in for Nashville, whose 56 points have them in a precarious fifth place in tough Central. Because the Pacific is so bad this year, it is very likely that both "Wild Card" spots in the Western Conference will come from the Predators' division.  Winnipeg is probably a non-factor at this point, but currently the Preds have just a one-point lead over Minnesota. With the Wild having dropped four in a row themselves, Nashville needs to start taking advantage of these home games. Usually a "safe bet" here at Bridgestone Arena, the team has dropped B2B games on home ice, including an ugly 6-3 loss to Philadelphia on Thursday. But I think they'll turn it around here against San Jose.

The Sharks have been trending in a positive direction of late w/ a 7-1-2 record their L10 games and that has them second in the aforementioned weak Pacific.  But they still only have two more points on the season than the Preds and I question just how much longer they'll be able to continue this stellar play on the road.  A 17-7-2 record away from home is the league's second best, topped by only Washington.  But the Sharks aren't even in the Capitals' class.  Consider that San Jose has not won here in Nashville in their last five tries.  The Preds also had the league's second most home wins last season. 

As mentioned above though, Nashville has been struggling recently on home ice.  In their first game after the All-Star Break, they were shutout here by St. Louis and then came Thursday night's disaster vs. the Flyers.  Perhaps the Break came at the wrong time for this team because going into it they had won four in a row, allowing just one goal in each game.  Despite what the final score said Thursday, the Predators actually somewhat dominated w/ a 40-19 edge in shots. That makes a 6-3 loss all the more head-scratching. Despite recent form, I give the Preds the edge in goal here as Pekka Rinne has allowed 1 or 0 goals seven of the last eight times he's faced the Sharks while Martin Jones has just a 3.13 goals against average the last three times he's faced Nashville.  10* Nashville

10* Indiana (7:05 ET):  The Pacers lost in Atlanta last night, but by my estimation come in undervalued for tonight's home date with division rival Detroit. Save for last night, Indiana has really cleaned up against Eastern Conference competition this year w/ a 20-8 ATS record. Meanwhile, the Pistons have a fairly striking home vs. road dichotomy as they're just 11-16 SU away from home compared to 16-8 in the Motor City and the ATS results are essentially identical. The Pacers have taken two of the three meetings so far this season, including a 12-point victory here at home just last month.  In both victories, they have held the Pistons to only 82 points. Not only is Indiana 20-8 ATS vs. the rest of the East, but they are 8-2 ATS vs. their own division. Lay the points.

Detroit has seen its scoring rise of late, most notably in a 111-point effort vs. the Knicks on Thursday. Since beating Golden State (at home) back on January 16th, the team is just 5-6 straight up overall and they've allowed 100+ pts in all but two games, against Utah and Philadelphia, who are two of the lowest scoring teams in the league.  Indiana is averaging 103.8 PPG at home, so look for them to take advantage of the shoddy Detroit defense tonight.  Despite a dominant advantage in rebounding last night (leading to a significant edge in second chance points), the Pacers could not really get things going offensively. Paul George was the exception as he hit seven three-pointers en route to a 31-point performance, but the rest of the team shot below 40 percent from the field. 

Here at home, the Pacers are 15-8 straight up and outscoring teams by an average of 5.6 points per game.  As I already went over, the Pistons' defensive numbers are bad and that's due in large part to giving up 102.3 PPG on the road.  This is also not a very good shooting team. On the road, their overall field goal percentage is 42.3% and that doesn't even take into account Andre Drummond's horrible marks at the free throw line.  In terms of "true" shooting percentage, which does take FT shooting into account, only the Lakers are worse than the Pistons. This is one of those classic instances of a team being undervalued because it is playing in the second night of a back to back.  10* Indiana

10* Over Sabres/Bruins (7:05 ET):  These teams just met Thursday with Boston coming out on top by a score of 3-2. Now getting Buffalo on home ice, one might surmise that coming right back with the Bruins here would be a good idea. But the asking price is a bit too high for my liking and I really like the total anyway.  The Bruins have gone 10 straight games scoring multiple goals and over the last five we've seen a ton of shots both from them and their opponents.  In fact, the 61 total from these two Thursday were the fewest in any of those last five. Yes, it took extra time just to get to five goals, but with the number being 5.0 this go around, the Over is a strong value.

Boston is the third highest scoring team in the league at 2.9 goals per game. Over those last five, they have averaged a impressive 34.8 shots per game, peaking with 42 in Tuesday's win over Toronto.  So far this season, these old Adams Division rivals have met three times.  Five or more goals have been scored in every matchup and that's with not one coming from either power play (combined 0 for 19).  The Bruins do possess the league's second best PP unit, mind you, at 24.5 percent. Given that they are just 2 for their last 27, including 0 for 16 the L4 games, I would expect them to "break out" given the opportunity to have the man advantage.

Buffalo is near the bottom of the league in terms of goals allowed (28th).  They've been under siege a lot recently, giving up an average of 36.7 shots the last five games.  While very high, that's actually not too out of the ordinary as the Sabres rank in the top 10 for most shots allowed this season.  There is obviously a strong correlation between the number of shots allowed and goals given up, so whomever is between the pipes tonight will probably be in for some trouble.  The Over is 9-3 this season in Sabres' road games when the O/U line is 5.0.  It's 10-5 in Bruins' home games at that same number. Somewhat surprising is the fact that Boston goalie Tuukka Rask has a very poor save percentage here at home (.896).  That should be great news for Buffalo, who I expect to contribute to the scoring here as well.  10* Over Sabres/Bruins

10* Richmond (6:00 ET):  This is one of those situations that I love where the favorite is coming off a straight up loss and thus undervalued because their opponent happened to win SU as a dog their last time out.  The underdog in question here is Massachusetts, who won at home (as 2-pt dogs) over Rhode Island Tuesday. One day later we saw Richmond, the favorite here, fall to George Mason as 13-point chalk. So that's the setup. Richmond has shockingly lost its last three home games, one to VCU, but all were relatively close and the team is still averaging slightly over 80 points per game in its own gym. UMass had gone nearly a month w/o a win before upending Rhode Island earlier in the week and I say its back to the losing end for the Minutemen Saturday night.  Lay the points.

This will be the only meeting between these schools this season unless they get matched up in the A-10 Tournament.  Each of the last two seasons have seen Richmond come away with a three-point victory at Massachusetts expense. Those were also much better Minutemen teams that the Spiders faced. The last time UMass came calling here, they were actually 16-2 on the season! This year's bunch is near the bottom of the conference standings (ahead of only George Mason and La Salle) and the offensive numbers aren't pretty when you consider it took overtime just to get to 61 points in Tuesday's upset win over Rhode Island. That was actually the Minutemen's second straight OT game as they had come out on the losing end vs. Fordham last weekend.  Prior to that though, five of their six A-10 losses had been by double digits.

Richmond has also split a pair of OT games recently, including the loss to VCU. They did win at George Washington (double overtime there), but have since dropped B2B games. Offensively, the Spiders have been a little "off" those last two games (38.5 FG%), but one thing is for certain and that's they won't be nearly as off as Rhode Island was (30.0 FG%) against UMass on Tuesday.  The Minutemen are bad team defensively as they allow 77.6 PPG.  10* Richmond

10* North Dakota State (5:00 ET): We're going a bit "off the board" here, but for good reason. In case you were unaware, IUPUI-Ft Wayne has the best ATS record (17-3) in the entire country currently. But two of those three non-covers have come somewhat recently and this is a situation where they'll be playing on the road for a second time in three nights. The last time we saw this situation present itself to the Mastodons, they did cover, although they had to go to overtime to win a wild affair at Omaha, 106-101. IPFW was also an 8.5-point dog in that spot as the oddsmakers were still underrating them. Not tonight, however, as some good old regression is in store for the best ATS team in the country.  Lay the points.

That last time IPFW played consecutive road games, they were actually off a loss at South Dakota State, who they currently lead by just one-half game atop the Summit League standings. That was also the middle game of a three-game road trip. So, it was a little different when they beat Omaha compared to now. The money actually came pouring in AGAINST the Mastodons (as people are becoming more aware of this team's ATS exploits) Thursday at South Dakota (not State) and bettors paid the price as IPFW came through as a three-point underdog, winning outright by a score of 95-82. But they also got 44 points from Max Landis, the most by any player in a single game in program history. As a team, the Mastdons made a school record 20 three-pointers.  That ain't happening again.

In addition to simply playing against IPFW, I've got plenty of reason to back North Dakota State here. The Bison are off a 67-63 win over Oral Roberts Thursday and while they did not cover (were -6), they did lose leading scorer Paul Miller (16.5 PPG) to a knee injury during the game.  Miller has been ruled out for today, but I liked what I saw from A.J. Jacobson Thursday and the Bison are getting to play a second straight game at home.  This is a huge revenge spot to boot as not only did they lose by just five at IPFW last month, but they are just 1-13 ATS vs. the Mastodons all-time. That's another trend "due" to reverse itself. 10* North Dakota State

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): Danny Manning's Demon Deacons have had a "tough go" of it in the ACC this year, but I think it's important to note that many times this team has hung w/ the "big boys."  Let's go back to before conference play even began, shall we? On December 22nd, Wake had an 18-point lead here in Winston-Salem against unbeaten Xavier. They blew that lead (and the cover). But they followed it up by beating Ben Simmons and LSU outright as seven-point road underdogs.  They've also beaten Indiana, UCLA and Arkansas at home. Yes, ACC play has been unkind, but Florida State should not be coming in here as the favorite, especially after the Demon Deacons very nearly handed Virginia a loss on this floor just over a week ago.  Take the points. 

That Virginia loss was another brutal one for the Deacons, perhaps the most brutal loss suffered by any team all season. They blew a 10-point lead with just over 90 seconds to go, giving up 18 points in the process including a miracle three-pointer at the buzzer. Predictably, after such an improbable defeat, things went south two days later w/ a bad loss at Notre Dame. Quite frankly, things weren't a whole lot better in the team's return to Winston-Salem Tuesday as they blew another halftime lead (this one of eight points) and lost to Clemson 76-62. The 56 second half points allowed (Clemson was 21 of 23 from the FT line) were a far cry from the 20 allowed before halftime.  While times are tough right now (1-9 vs. ACC), I do believe Wake to be undervalued here as they have played the toughest schedule in the country according to most rating systems.

Florida State comes in on a three-game win streak, most recently beating NC State by four at home. They aren't nearly as prolific offensively on the road, however, and this will be just the third time they're favored in another team's gym.  The first saw them lose outright to Clemson on January 2nd. Then, laying 10, they won 72-62 at Boston College last weekend.  Monday's win saw the Seminoles shoot 52.4% overall, including 36.4% from three-point range, which dare I say won't be repeated here.  They had their own defensive issues in the 2H vs. NC State as well.  8* Wake Forest

10* New York (7:35 ET):  I saw this number when it opened yday afternoon and was somewhat salivating at the chance to play it. My only hope was that the Knicks WOULDN'T be victorious last night and they weren't, though they did almost pull off a rally from 27 down in Detroit. The fact that they lost means the value we're getting here is less likely to be affected and the bottom line is that I think it's a real steal to be able to take points in this spot. My own personal power ratings disagree w/ the notion of Memphis being favored here and when analyzing the Grizzlies' season to date, I feel it's important to bring up how no other team in the league has a greater discrepancy between it's actual and "expected" win total (+7). Take the points.

Though they ultimately came up short on the scoreboard last night, the Knicks "almost miracle rally" should have a "carryover" type effect into tonight. Keep in mind that the first half vs. the Pistons was likely their worst offensive showing of the season as they shot just 28 percent from the field and scored only 36 points.  Perhaps for the first time this season, there's a growing sense of urgency in the Big Apple as the team has dropped seven of eight (only win vs. Phoenix) overall.  They've barely shot 40 percent overall the L5 games and that's due to improve. For the season, they average 101.3 PPG here at MSG.  It's a 6-5 ATS record this year for New York in the second of back to back games.

Memphis, meanwhile, has won eight of nine and topped 100 points in all of those games. Simply put, they are due to regress back to their mean offensively as their 60.6% shooting from the last game (110-95 win at New Orleans) is highly unlikely to be repeated and on the road, they're averaging only 95.5 PPG.  Something that I found interesting is that when these teams met three weeks ago, in Memphis, the Grizzlies were "only" a 5.5-point favorite.  They did win 103-95 (Knicks were 5 of 20 from 3-point range), but in my opinion that margin of victory is not enough to justify the substantial swing in the line we've seen here. The Grizzlies still have a losing road record (10-13 SU) this season and following a double-digit win, they are 3-6 against the spread.  10* New York

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET):  When Sacramento beat Brooklyn 111-109 back on November 13th, they were 6.5-point home favorites. Now much has changed since that first meeting and there can be no denying that the Nets' season quickly went south.  But, at the same time, I'm not so sure the Kings has gone so well as to justify this many swing in the pointspread for tonight's rematch at the Barclays Center. Sacramento, now the road team, is essentially laying a very similar number compared to what they were laying at home.  Let's note that the Kings are a pretty awful road team w/ an 8-15 straight up record thanks to allowing 109.7 points per game (league worst) in such affairs.  Brooklyn has its own set of issues, but is a good value here. Take the points.

I've been through this before w/ Sacramento, but it somewhat astounds me that they've been favored in so many games recently. Wednesday marked the seventh time in the last nine games they've been in the chalk role and while they went 4-3 ATS in those games, twice they were laying two points or less at home. Laying this much weight on the road seems like a big ask for a team with so many issues defensively. They lost outright to Chicago, at home, Wednesday night. The final score there was 107-102 and keep in mind that the Bulls didn't have Jimmy Butler in the lineup.  Despite that, the Kings trailed by double digits for much of the first half and beyond. Again, I believe it's critical to note that this is the worst defensive team in the league. Two of the three games in which Sacramento has been a road favorite this season, they have lost outright.

The year 2016 has not been a good one so far for Brooklyn, nor does it figure to get that much better moving forward. They have dropped 15 of their last 17 games, going just 4-13 ATS. But if history is any indication, the Nets are in a good spot tonight as twice during that stretch they've lost five in a row, only to win the next time out. I had them two Sundays ago where as an even larger home dog, they beat Oklahoma City outright. They enter tonight on another five-game losing streak, but had covered vs. both New Orleans and Detroit before a 114-100 loss Wednesday vs. Indiana.  The Kings should not be in the same price range as the Pacers, which they are here.  8* Brooklyn

8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET):  I used the Lightning in their last game and they came through for me (3-1 win vs. Detroit), so I'll come right back w/ them again as tonight Pittsburgh comes calling. Currently, Tampa Bay is in a little bit better of a position when it comes to the playoffs as their 60 points have them safe and tied for second place in the Atlantic.  Pittsburgh, who has 57 points, is fifth in the Metro and fighting for a Wild Card spot.  They too came out of the All-Star Break looking impressive (beat Ottawa 6-5), their fourth win in a row overall. But the Lightning have been even hotter, winning 9 of 10, and being that they're on home ice tonight, they get the nod.

Scoring six goals, which the Penguins did Tuesday, looks impressive. But consider they also gave up five (not good!) and the offensive performance vs. Ottawa looks a little less impressive when you consider that the Sens just gave up seven more goals last night (at home!) to Edmonton.  Here, they are likely going to be w/o Evgeni Malkin (tomorrow too) and he is the team leader in both goals (23) and points (49).  Malkin had a hat trick Tuesday vs. Ottawa, so he'll clearly be missed.  Keep in mind that the Pens were already relatively thin at the center position. Making matters even more difficult here is they must deal w/ an outstanding goaltender, Ben Bishop, who carries a .927 save percentage into tonight's contest.

Tampa Bay is 5th in the league in goals allowed and has given up just 20 in the L10 games overall. Bishop has clearly been the driving force behind that, giving up just three goals in his last three home starts.  He made 24 saves Wednesday vs. Detroit, a game that the Lightning really controlled throughout.  I would expect their offense to come alive here as they scored five times on just 25 shots when they hosted the Penguins three weeks ago. Yes, they won despite being outshot, but Pittsburgh did the same to them just two weeks prior at the Igloo. The Penguins' goaltending is also a far greater concern as they've now given up four or more goals in four of the last seven games.  Marc-Andre Fleury has a poor .893 save percentage his L4 starts, yet the team has somehow managed to go 4-0.  8* Tampa Bay

8* Brown (7:00 ET): Cornell had quite the week last week. They went to both Harvard (as 10-pt underdogs) and Dartmouth (as 3.5-pt underdogs) and the pulled off two upsets, but the schedule makers are keeping them out on the road this weekend for another pair of away games and eventually that has to catch up w/ a team. Tonight, they visit Brown, who won last Saturday here at home against Penn, 89-83 as two-point chalk. Something to watch is the status of Cornell's leading scorer, Robert Hatter, who also leads the team in assists.  He has missed the last four games. But despite Hatter being listed as probable to return here, I don't like the idea of the Big Red laying points in this spot as a 14-2 ATS run here in Providence is due to halt sooner rather than later.  Take the points. 

Playing without their leading scorer, Cornell received a major contribution last week from freshman Matt Morgan, who came out of almost nowhere to total 65 points.  Morgan first scored a career-high 33 pts in the 77-65 win at Harvard, then it was 32 more in Saturday's narrow 77-73 win at Dartmouth. Free throw shooting also played a significant role in those two Big Red victories.  In both upsets, they made more FT's than their opponents even attempted, which is pretty surprising considering they were the road team. Helping their cause further, Harvard missed 11 of 17 FT's. Cornell then got to the line an absurd 35 times Saturday in Dartmouth. Winning the battle at the charity stripe seems odd for a team that for the year shoots just 64.6% there. (Brown, for the record, is at 71.9%) I would expect both Morgan and the team's FT shooting to start to regress here.

This seems like a pretty even matchup on paper, so I'm not entirely sure as to why the road team would be laying points. Cornell is still only 5-6 SU away from home this year, giving up 81.5 points per game.  Although they admittedly won the last game, it's hard to rectify how the Big Red were underdogs in Dartmouth and now are favored here.  As you can tell, this is more of a play AGAINST Cornell than anything else, but I would also expect Brown's recent shooting woes to be rectify themselves. 8* Brown

8* Portland (11:00 ET):  Well, here I go again.  The Pilots have let me down the last two times they've taken off, first losing outright at home last Thursday to San Francisco, then doing the same vs. Santa Clara two days later. After missing on the linesmakers projections by a total of 27 points in those two games, they now find themselves as double digit dogs for a visit to Pepperdine, who they actually beat earlier in the WCC campaign. So this looks to be a great value w/ Portland already having beaten this same opponent, by eight, as two-point underdogs. Since then, they've crashed and burned, losing eight of nine while Pepperdine has gone 7-2 SU. But this remains an inflated number nevertheless.  Take the points.

Pepperdine, who beat St. Mary's on this floor (as eight-point dogs) saw its four-game win streak snapped on Saturday with an 11-point setback at the hands of BYU.  The Waves just did get under the 11.5-point spot in that one, so they've now covered five in a row, thus all the more reason for overinflation.  There was nothing that fluky about Portland's win back on December 23rd, though they did make 10 three-pointers.  Still though, the Pilots can score (78.2 PPG), so taking this many points really is attractive. I'm hoping they can play a little defense as well as that has been an issue for them throughout conference play. They allowed Santa Clara to shoot 53.4 percent Saturday night, thus nullifying their own strong offensive showing.  Still, it's telling that only one of their WCC losses has been by more than 12 points.

Pepperdine might still be unbeaten at home (9-0 SU), but as a favorite they've struggled to cover the spread in WCC play, well until recently. They opened conference play 0-4 ATS as chalk, but have since covered the last three times in that role. But only one of those tickets was punched as a DD favorite and that came against last place San Diego. Keep in mind that the Waves' last four games have come against just two different opponents, San Diego and BYU. They have a couple of big games looming on the horizon (Gonzaga, St. Mary's), so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them overlook this game a bit. 8* Portland

8* Los Angeles (10:05 ET):  After stumbling somewhat going into the All-Star Break, LA came out like gangbusters on Tuesday, blowing out Arizona 6-2.  Having dropped B2B home games and this one being against a main rival, I don't expect there to be any "let up" whatsoever from the Pacific Division leaders. Yes, the Kings still have a comfortable nine-point lead in the division race, but I'm sure they still remember dropping four of five games to Anaheim last season. The first meeting this year, which took place at The Pond, did end up in the Kings favor (3-2), but the Ducks haven't lost since, winning four straight. However, LA is still clearly the better team in my mind and should dominate here on home ice.

The Kings always bring strong possession numbers to the table. This year, they rank #1 in Corsi and #2 in Fenwick.  Here at home, the gap between shots forced vs. allowed widens fairly dramatically. They average 33.1 per game themselves, which is a higher average than what any team averages for the season. They also only allow 25.3 shots per game, which would be fewer than any other team allows on a per game basis overall this season. With those numbers plus a top notch goaltender in Jonathan Quick, I'm a bit stunned to see the Kings only 15-9-1 at the Staples Center. Quick had one bad game recently, but still is the driving force behind the team ranking 3rd in goals allowed and he is 6-1-2 his L9 regular season home starts vs. Anaheim (1.82 goals against average).

I wasn't surprised at all to see Anaheim struggle out of the gate this season. This was a club that greatly overachieved in 2014-15 thanks to some tremendous "puck luck" and a phenomenal record in one-goal games. The mid-season call up of goalie John Gibson has keyed this mid-season turnaround, but I still wonder about the team's ability to score on a consistent basis, particularly on the road where they still are only averaging 1.7 goals per game.  The loss to the Kings on January 17th represents the only time the Ducks have fallen over the L7 games, but a one-goal win over San Jose Tuesday was a bit lucky (outshot 32-25). Also, the Ducks still do rank 30th in the league in goals per game. 8* Los Angeles

10* CS Fullerton (10:00 ET):  Yes, the revenge angle is often overplayed in handicapping circles. But I feel it applies here with Cal State Fullerton looking to avenge last week's 69-64 loss to Big West rival Cal Davis.  Note that Fullerton did lead that game, by two, at the half. Neither team goes very deep into the respective benches as there were a total of two points scored from all non-starters in that first meeting.  I feel that homecourt advantage will also play a vital role here as UC Davis has just one win away from home all season (in 10 games) and averages only 64.2 points per game. For the season, the Aggies actually rank outside the Top 300 in scoring overall!  Look for the home team to gain a much needed win and revenge Thursday night.

The Titans (CS Fullerton) are now 1-6 SU and in last place in the Big West following another setback, this one coming by 10 (71-61) to UC Riverside here at home on Saturday. Again though, that was another game they led at the half.  The defensive numbers in the second half (54 pts allowed) look pretty ugly, but consider that Riverside ended up going to the free throw line a total of 34 times (made 30!), which was significant as Fullerton finished just 12 for 19 at the charity stripe despite being the home team.  The Titans have now dropped six in a row overall, but clearly shouldn't have to worry about giving up many points here and UC Davis is just terrible from the foul line (62.9%). With their next three games taking place out on the road, this is really a "must win" for Fullerton.

UC Davis, meanwhile, has won four of its last five (4-0 ATS L4) after opening the season just 5-10 straight up.  Three of those four wins, including the one over CS Fullerton, were by five points or less and then Saturday saw them pull off a real shocker, beating Cal Poly 66-52 as a four-point home underdog. But, again, this team has just one win away from home all season. It came against Utah Valley State (non-board team) back in late November. They have dropped their three Big West road games by an average of nearly 20 points per game and also lost at Seattle (non-board team) earlier this year. 10* CS Fullerton

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET):  Of course, this will be the second straight time I've used the Suns as my *10* Game of the Week.  Obviously, given the current state of the team, it's a bit risky. They did lose for me Sunday (last game w/ Jeff Hornacek on the bench) in Dallas and failed to cover, but it should be noted that they actually led that game outright (as 12-pt underdogs) w/ just over six minutes remaining (somehow ended up losing by 13). A miserable nine-point fourth quarter there was likely the final nail in Hornacek's "coffin," as the team obviously should have at least been able to cover there.  Cover is what Phoenix did do in its first game under interim HC Earl Watson, losing only 104-97 to a vastly superior Toronto team that was looking to rebound from an embarrassing defeat. I say take the points here.

Houston simply does not deserve to be in this price range, especially on the road.  Consider that where the line opened here was almost identical to what the Raptors were asked to lay Tuesday here in Phoenix and the debate isn't even close as to who's better - Toronto or Houston. Also, it should be pointed out that while the Suns are an absolutely atrocious 4-22 SU on the road this season, they are a more respectable 10-14 SU at home while being dead even in terms of points for and against. The Rockets, meanwhile, have a losing road record and have been outscored by nearly three full points per game in those contests (allow 107.8 PPG).  I realize that Houston just beat Miami by double digits (at home) and Dwight Howard (who could eventually be traded) is back from a one-game suspension, but this team just isn't that good in my estimation.

Normally, after a coaching change, we see a team display some short-term improvement. As mentioned above, the Suns did cover Tuesday night vs. a good Toronto team and honestly it was a crime they didn't do the same in Dallas Sunday.  This is one of those situations where the line is actually coming down despite the majority of the bets being on the favorite, so it does appear as if the so-called "smart money" is on the home dog in this one. Houston is just 14-19 ATS as a favorite this year and Howard's return may not be the "blessing" that it appears to be considering the team has lost the five times he's played, giving up a startling average of 126.4 PPG.  It is also unlikely the Rockets match their 52.4 FG% from Tuesday night.  10* Phoenix

9* Over Blackhawks/Coyotes (9:05 ET): Arizona has given up more goals than any other Western Conference team and is 28th in the league, allowing 3.2 per game. That makes tonight's home date with Chicago a less than ideal matchup considering the Stanley Cup champs come in poised for a breakout offensive showing. Twice in the last four games the 'Hawks have been shut out, though they did come out of the All-Star Break with a 2-1 win over Colorado.  That game probably should have ended up more lopsided considering a 42-23 edge in shots. We should also soon see improvement in the Blackhawks' power play, which is just 4 for 30 the last 10 games. The only thing keeping me from a full-fledged endorsement (of Chicago) here is the fact the 'Yotes are on home ice. Instead, I like the Over more.

In its last two games, Arizona has allowed a total of 11 goals. Again, that's not a good sign.  The last time these two teams met, it was a wild one, a 7-5 final in the Blackhawks' favor.  The Coyotes actually registered 37 shots on goal in that one, but goaltender Anders Lindback didn't last long and the options HC Dave Tippett has "between the pipes" now all seem unappealing, especially after Louis Dominigue was pulled in each of the last two games. Chicago's power play went 3 for 4 against Arizona last month, so here is where we should see that unit finally break out, especially considering the 'Yotes have allowed four goals the last 11 times they've been down a man (29th in penalty killing overall).  Also, Chicago gets back Jonathan Toews here after he had to serve a one-game suspension vs. Colorado for skipping the All-Star Game.

Speaking of power plays that are set to improve, what about Arizona's?  They are just 1 for their last 28 w/ the man advantage. It's not like Corey Crawford turned in a strong performance the last time he faced the Coyotes. He gave up five goals on 37 shots as the 'Yotes matched their highest scoring output of the entire season. While Arizona has scored only 12 non-shootout goals its last eight games, they've gone four straight w/ scoring multiple times overall. The Over is 6-3 this year in their home games when the O/U line is 5.0. 9* Over Blackhawks/Coyotes

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): Yes, the Maple Leafs are still the last place team in the Atlantic. But I don't think that there's any denying they are an improved team from last year's miserable campaign. That's reflected in their overall possession numbers (8th in Corsi, 11th in Fenwick) and if that doesn't sound all that impressive to you, consider that they were 29th in Corsi & 30th in Fenwick two years ago and near the bottom again in 2014-15.  Coming out of the Break, the Leafs picked up a surprise OT win at Boston (were +155 on the ML) and tonight I like them in the price range at home. New Jersey has managed to claw its way back into the playoff race, but I question their ability to stay in contention given how few shots they are averaging.

The Devils are, in fact, last in the league in shots per game at 24.2. The gap that exists between them and the 29th place team (Arizona) is 3.0 shots/game. Don't think that's significant? Consider that the gap between the #6 team (which is Toronto) and #29 is 3.5 shots/game!  Simply put, if you aren't getting the puck at the net on a regular basis, it's difficult to win consistently in this league.  I realize that New Jersey has managed to win four of their last five games (beat the Rangers, 3-2, Tuesday night), but during that time they've averaged a minuscule 22.4 shots per game. Somehow, they've managed to score an average of 3.2 goals (shooting percentage of 14.3%!), which is simply an unsustainable ratio. I just don't know how far goaltender Corey Schneider can continue to carry this team. Consider that there have been only two games since X-Mas where the Devils had 25+ shots on goal!

Because of the All-Star Break,  Toronto hasn't gotten to play many games at home lately (just two in L3 weeks). They were outshot by the Bruins Tuesday, but that shouldn't be an issue here. The Devils rank 29th in Corsi and 30th in Fenwick and had to score twice on the power play in their last game in order to pull off the victory. With Schneider drawing all the accolades, underrated is the fact that Leafs' goaltender James Reimer brings in a .932 save percentage this year.  Toronto may have the fewest # of regulation wins in the league, but their nine OT/shootout losses are most in the Eastern Conference. I like them a lot here. 10* Toronto

8* Minnesota (10:35 ET):  The T'wolves are off a really embarrassing loss last night as they fell to the Lakers, 119-115 as four-point road favorites.  They'll be back at Staples Center tonight, only this time to face the Clippers and while the matchup seems far less favorable, taking the points remains an attractive option here.  Teams playing in the second game of a back to back, especially on the road and off a loss, are typically undervalued by the linesmakers. I realize that being off a SU loss as a favorite has not been kind to Minnesota this year (0-6 ATS in that role), plus they are 0-8 SU in the second game of a B2B. But a double digit pointspread is simply too good to pass up in this instance as the Clips can be "caught napping." Take the points.

Yet another trend that Minnesota must overcome here is that they have lost 14 straight times to the Clippers. The most recent setback came in early December, at home, but that game was decided by only four points. Earlier in the year, they lost by only eight (were +10) here in LA.  Because they've lost five straight coming into tonight, the spread is predictably higher for the third go-around. But note that three of the T'wolves last four games have been decided by four points or less and another saw them lose by only seven in Cleveland.  Thanks to almost always being the underdog, the team has performed much better against the spread when on the road, going 14-11 this year. I don't know how they lost last night considering they shot 57.5% from the field. Then again, they were just 4 of 17 from three-point range.

  Further helping to drive up the value here is the fact the Clippers are coming off an impressive 120-93 win and cover over Chicago. That was the team's fourth straight win, though two of those (both on the road) came by just two points each. Remember that Blake Griffin remains out and I'll question just how long this recent defensive "renaissance" (94.0 PPG allowed L5 games) can continue. For the season, LA is allowing just over 100 points per game. After a double digit win, the Clips are only 5-9 ATS this year. This is a situation where the road team should be able to take advantage of a generous pointspread. 8* Minnesota

10* Under Pelicans/Spurs (8:35 ET):  New Orleans has now gone Over the total in nine straight games. But if there's one thing that we should expect to change as it relates to their last game, it's that the Spurs, as good as they may be, likely won't shoot 60% percent from the floor like the Grizzlies did. At the same time, we did see the Pelicans' own offensive numbers start to regress (scored only 95 pts) vs. Memphis and that figures to continue here against a San Antonio club that is #1 in the league (by a wide margin) in terms of defensive efficiency and giving up only 89.7 points per game here at home. I played the Spurs Under the total in their last game (and won!) and will go back to that well yet again tonight. Take the Under.

Even though they just held Orlando to only 92 points in a convincing win two nights ago, San Antonio's defensive numbers over the L5 games still aren't what you'd expect. That's because they had to face both Golden State and Cleveland on the road. Those two both shredded the Spurs to the tune of 120 and 117 points. The other three games during that stretch have seen them allow fewer than 100 and again they allow just 89.7 PPG for the year at home. Per 100 possessions, they allow only 94.8 points, which is four fewer than the second best team. That's the same gap that exists between the #2 (Boston) and #17 teams in terms of defensive efficiency. A total of 200+ just seems too high here given the YTD defensive numbers.

The Pelicans are not a good defensive team (28th in defensive efficiency), but they did hold the Spurs to just 90 points (on 40.5% shooting) in the only previous matchup between these two this season. Offensively, New Orleans had been performing much better than expected before running into Memphis. But I think that a key here is they average only 98.4 PPG on the road and as a result the Under is 18-5 for them in those games. Both teams will likely be missing a key weapon tonight as San Antonio will be w/o Tim Duncan and New Orleans is doubtful to have Tyreke Evans. Considering the last meeting saw just 194 total pts scored, it's curious that the O/U line for tonight's rematch would actually be significantly higher. 10* Under Pelicans/Spurs

8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): So these are two of the three teams in the Atlantic tied for second place w/ 58 points. Judging solely by goal differential, Detroit would appear to be the "odd team out" as they've actually been outscored this season while Tampa Bay (+13) and Boston (+15) are both in the black.  I feel that the Red Wings have been one of the league's biggest overachievers to this point as they rank in the bottom 10 in Fenwick and give up more shots than they take. A 14-6-3 road record is a real surprise and something I expect to start regressing to the mean.  Meanwhile, the Lightning got hot right before the All-Star Break, winning 8 of 10. Having dropped a pair of games in the Motor City earlier this season, I expect this game will carry a great deal of importance for them. I'm on the home team in this one.

Tampa Bay has a great shot at continuing its recent success after the Break as it's still a home heavy stretch of games. They've won five in a row on home ice to improve to 15-8-2 here this season. That includes wins over a pair of first place teams, Florida and Chicago.  Goalie Ben Bishop continues to lead the way w/ a .926 save percentage in 36 starts, plus he's posted a 1.22 goals against average his L4 home starts vs. Detroit.  An offense that led the league in 2014-15 in goals per game still only ranks 14th , but an average of 33.0 shots over the last five games shows that they are doing the right things. When playing w/ three or more days rest this season, the Lightning are a perfect 5-0.

Without Bishop between the pipes, Tampa Bay posted a 1-0 shutout of Toronto in their final game before the Break. That's bad news for the Red Wings as the Lightning are 2-0 this year following a shutout victory. I'm honestly surprised that there have been so few shutout victories for this team. Detroit, just 1-3 SU this season when playing w/ 3+ days rest, has actually not taken the ice since last Monday. They could come out rusty here. Petr Mrazek has been outstanding in goal for them, but it was actually Jimmy Howard in goal for the two wins over TB earlier this year. I think that both Mrazek and the team's penalty killing is due to regress here against a team finally hitting its stride. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Miami FL (7:00 ET):  After "zigging" Saturday, It's time to "zag" w/ the Hurricanes. Yes, I just played AGAINST "The U" in their last game and the result was even better than I had hoped for as they lost outright, 85-69 at North Carolina State as five-point favorites. But tonight they return to Coral Gables where they are 10-1 SU for the season including a perfect 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in ACC play where every win has been by double digits. Remember what I'd said in my analysis for the NC State game. This had been a hot team prior to visiting Raleigh w/ three straight wins to its credit. They do a great job when it comes to not turning the ball over and defensive rebounding. I expect them to bounce back tonight w/ a win. Lay the points.

When it comes to facing Notre Dame, three-point shooting will likely determine the outcome of this game. The Fighting Irish shoot the ball well from behind the arc, particularly on the road (41.0 percent!), which seems really high and unlikely to be sustained. Miami is excellent when it comes to limiting the number of looks from three-point range and when the opponent does attempt from distance, they are shooting just 29.1% here in Coral Gables.  Overall, the 'Canes are holding teams to just 0.89 points per possession at home. Meanwhile, Notre Dame's 3-pt FG% defense is bad w/ opponents making over 38 percent against them. Miami's three-point prowess has tailed off a bit in conference play, but both Sheldon McClellan (3 for 15 L3 games) and Angel Rodriguez are due to start finding more success in that department.

Unlike last season, when Notre Dame took both meetings, Miami is the more experienced team this time around. They're off the loss to NC State, who shot the ball better than expected, but a hot shooting opponent is less likely here at home. The Fighting Irish lost their last road game, 81-66 at Syracuse, and I'd say they are unlikely to replicate the hot shooting we saw Sunday vs. Wake Forest (who is a poor defensive team). They've gone just 3-6 ATS this year after scoring 80+ points in the previous game.  I also think that an extra day to prepare for this game is significant for the home team. 8* Miami (FL)

10* La Salle (7:00 ET):  Admittedly, this looks like a tough one on paper.  Over the course of the last several seasons, Virginia Commonwealth has proved that a move from the CAA to the A-10 would in no way inhibit their success. This year, they're showing that they don't miss the architect of the program's ascension (Shaka Smart) either.  Currently, VCU is one of only a handful of teams in America yet to suffer a conference loss (8-0 SU). The Rams last lost on December 19th and have since rattled off 11 consecutive victories, all but three of them coming by double digits. They continue to rank among the nation's best in terms of forcing turnovers and have shot 38 percent from three-point range. Yet, I feel tonight has "trap game" written all over it. Take the points.

At the opposite end of the Atlantic 10 spectrum, we have La Salle, who has lost six straight games and is tied for last place in the Conference. All six losses during the losing streak have come by double digits.  Wretched shooting has really hurt the Explorers this season, the last five games in particular as they are just 34.3 percent from the field. That number can only improve. At one point, they missed 10 straight shots Saturday in a 59-44 loss at Dayton. That resulted in a three-point deficit (w/ just over 11 minutes to go) turning into a 16-point hole. At home, however, the Explorers shoot a more respectable 44.3% from the field and they did pull a huge upset over the Flyers (Dayton) here (as 11.5-pt pups) back on January 9th. Tonight will be just the second time playing at Tom Gola Arena since that upset.

I'm banking on this being an easy game for VCU to overlook. It won't be broadcast locally and it's a matchup w/ arguably the weakest team in the league.  But, it's also the second of B2B road games w/ a more important contest (at home) looming this Friday vs. George Washington. Like another conference unbeaten, San Diego State (who I successfully played against yday), we've probably reached a "tipping point" w/ the Rams who are 12-4 ATS in all games this season. On the road this season, they are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 PPG.  The Explorers will find a way to keep this one close. 10* La Salle

8* Colorado State (11:00 ET): Scanning the current conference standings across the country, only a handful of teams are w/o a loss. One such team is San Diego State, who is 9-0 SU in the Mountain West following an upset of UNLV over the weekend. The Aztecs continue to lean on a defense that is allowing just 59.5 points per game, but they will be tested here by a Colorado State squad that comes in averaging an impressive 81.2 PPG (tied for 26th in the country). This is a rematch from three weeks ago when SDSU went to Fort Collins and pulled out a 69-62 win as three-point favorites. The number is predictably inflated for the rematch and thus it's time to take advantage and take the points.

The Aztecs are favored by double digits here, something that has not been the case for them very often in Mountain West play. It's happened twice recently and neither time did they cover. They pushed laying 12 here at home vs. Wyoming and then didn't cover a large 19-point spread against a terrible San Jose State team (arguably worst team in the conference).  CSU is clearly better than both of those teams.  It was a double digit win for the Aztecs Saturday in Vegas, but five of their previous seven victories were by single digit margins. They have a trio of victories by exactly three points. I just don't think this team has enough offensively to cover spreads as large as this one.

Colorado State will be looking to rebound from a disappointing result over the weekend, one that saw them lose up in Wyoming, which is a tough place to play.  This is the top scoring team in the conference, which will serve them well catching this many points.  Similar to SDSU not having had to lay double digits many times, rarely has Colorado State been catching so many points.  There's been only one other time that the Rams have caught double digits in MWC play. They covered at Boise State (lost by only four), scoring 80 points. They've also stayed within five of Kansas State (from the best conference in the country, the Big 12) on a neutral court, covering there as well.  Look for the Rams to make enough shots to stay within the number here.  8* Colorado State

10* Under Blue Jackets/Oilers (9:05 ET):  From Florida-Washington, we go to a pair of teams on the opposite end of the spectrum.  Columbus and Edmonton are tied for the fewest number of points in the league right now (43) and have the two worst goal differentials. Now, Columbus did go into the Break w/ some alleged "momentum" after a pair of 5-2 victories over Montreal. But that amount of goal scoring from the Blue Jackets over a two-game span is quite rare. In fact, it's their most in regulation in consecutive games all season. With just one three-game win streak all season to their name, a decrease in production is likely tonight. With Edmonton 24th in the league in goals per game, an Under is likely here.

The Blue Jackets are 30th in the league in goals allowed and don't have Sergei Bobrovsky. But Joonas Korpisalo has come out of relative obscurity to go 4-0-1 w/ a 1.57 goals against average his L5 starts.  Here, he'll be facing an Oilers club that is 5th worst on the power play (16.6 percent) and w/o third leading scorer Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (30 points).  Edmonton registered just one goal in its last game, which was here at home. This is a team that has scored two or fewer goals in regulation in 10 of its last 15 games overall.

Yes, Connor McDavid is going to return here for the Oilers. But I think that it would be unfair to expect much from him in his first game back from a collarbone injury that kept him out of the last 37 games.  Now these teams have gone Over against one another four straight times. But none of those matchups took place this season.  The bottom line is that no matter who is between the pipes tonight for Edmonton, I do not believe they will be threatened much by a Columbus offense due to decline.  One statistical oddity is that the Oilers are a perfect 7-0 Over in Tuesday games this season.  A trend such is that is due to regress naturally.  10* Under Blue Jackets/Oilers

10* Northern Illinois (9:00 ET):  We have two teams off very different results here in the MAC Tuesday night.  Northern Illinois lost, as a 5.5-point favorite, at lowly Miami over the weekend while Buffalo was able to go to Toledo and pull a wire to wire upset as 5.5-point dogs.  Northern Illinois still is tied for first place in the MAC West, but has dropped B2B games after a 6-0 start in conference play. The loss to Miami was really embarrassing as the RedHawks had previously been winless vs. the rest of the MAC. But the key here is that the Huskies are back in DeKalb where they are a perfect 13-0 SU this season, outscoring teams by a whopping 19.0 points per game. Homecourt advantage is the deciding factor here. Lay the points.

While not all those home games have come against top tier competition, the fact is that NIU is 7-1 ATS here including a perfect 4-0 when laying three or less. I don't envision a repeat of the poor shooting we saw in the Miami game where the Huskies finished at just 34.0 percent from the field.  Five players combined to go 0 for 17! That was the second time in three games they failed to score 60 points, but what has consistently saved this team is their defense. They held Toledo to just 31.1 percent their last time here and keep in mind they are allowing just 60.5 PPG in DeKalb. The record in conference games is still 29-14 ATS the L3 seasons and this is a double revenge spot as Buffalo has won both meetings the L2 years.

Buffalo allows 77 PPG on the road. Their last time away from home, they gave up 91 in a blowout loss to Western Michigan.  This will be the Bulls' third time playing B2B road games since conference play got underway.  So far, they have won the first game all three times. They are 0-2 in the second leg coming into tonight, allowing 86 PPG.  So recent history is certainly against them. The Bulls don't shoot the ball particularly well away from home (39.6 percent) and are quite unlikely to match the kind of three-point shooting we saw from Miami against NIU here.  Recent form has brought this line down far below what it should be and created a ton of value on the favorite.  10* Northern Illinois

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  The Celtics had to settle for a split of a home and home w/ Orlando over the weekend as they lost out on the road Sunday due to giving up 119 points on 53.7% shooting. Assuming that they can correct whatever issues there were on defense in that game, I see Brad Stevens' team bouncing back from that outright loss w/ a win here in the Big Apple. Scoring certainly has not been an issue for Boston as they've topped 100 points 12 straight times, averaging 113.2 PPG the L5 games.  The Knicks, meanwhile, are trending down w/ five losses in six games and the one win was against Phoenix.  Lay the short number here.

I expect the Celtics to start moving up the Eastern Conference pecking order.  They have the third best point differential (+4.2 per game), trailing only Cleveland and Toronto. The number of blowout victories Boston has produced this year is quite impressive (17 of 27 wins have been by double digits). A poor record in close games has cost them (1-6 SU L7 games decided by 5 pts or less), but is due to turn. It was a six-point loss here at MSG last month (Knicks were 27 of 30 at FT line!).  But they are 13-9 ATS playing w/ revenge.  The defense should improve here as in the five games previous to the Orlando loss, the Celtics allowed an average of 41.6 percent shooting. Also, don't discount the impact of points off turnovers. The Knicks are last in the league in that department while no team turns its opponents over more than does Boston.

The Knicks are not playing well right now. Rookie sensation Kristaps Porzingis has tailed off and he was the key w/ 26 points in 26 minutes in the 120-114 win over Boston last month. In four of their last six games, the team has been held to 95 points or fewer.  While they've still outperformed preseason expectations, the fact is that New York is still being outscored on the season and the record vs. teams w/ a winning record (9-17 including four straight losses) is not impressive. Somewhat predictably, they got torched by Golden State last time out, losing by 19, and that signals a poor result is likely here w/ the team just 5-11 SU after allowing 105+ points last game.  8* Boston

8* Washington (7:35 ET):  I don't think that there's any denying who the best team in the Eastern Conference is right now.  The Capitals are way out in front w/ 74 points and despite tonight being a battle of division leaders, we have a prohibitive favorite and for good reason. Atlantic Division leader Florida was clearly one of the bigger overachievers in the entire league during the first half, but it's notable that they have a goal differential that's only half of what the Caps have. Despite their division lead, the Panthers are bottom 10 in both Corsi and Fenwick, which doesn't speak well to their overall level of play. They've been outshot this season and average only 24.5 shots per game on the road. All division leaders are not created alike.

Keep in mind that Washington has 33 wins in regulation. No other Eastern Conference team has more than 25.  What's really impressive is the top team in the Western Conference (Chicago) has 70 points, but they have played six more games than the Caps!  No team is even close to Washington's league low 12 defeats (only eight in regulation). Every other team in the league has more regulation losses than the Caps have total losses. The Stars have the second fewest total losses in the league w/ 19.  While they did drop an overtime decision at Philadelphia in the final game before the Break, they had gone 7-1-1 their last nine games previous to that and there has been only ONE time all season that the Caps have dropped consecutive contests!

Washington is 1st in goals scored, 2nd in goals allowed, 1st on the power play and 4th on the penalty kill. Florida is tops among goals allowed, but offensively they are lagging and I question how long they can maintain their scoring average while at the same time averaging so few shots per game. The Panthers likely feel pretty good about themselves coming into this one, knowing Alex Ovechkin won't play for Washington (suspension) and they beat the Caps earlier this year. But here in D.C., they've dropped 10 straight and have lost three in a row overall on the road. Remember that it's often wise to "sell" on news such as Ovechkin's suspension, which often times creates an overreaction in the marketplace. 8* Washington

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  It's great to have NHL back, right?  That being said, Montreal probably wishes that the All-Star Break would have extended a few more weeks, which is when they expect goaltender Carey Price back. Without Price, the Habs have fallen off quite dramatically after a strong start to the season. Consider that they were 9-0 and 19-4-3 at various points. Since Price went down w/ his knee injury, which was all the way back on Thanksgiving, the team has won just seven times in 26 games.  That's not good, obviously. Before the break, they dropped seven of eight, including B2B 5-2 losses to the worst team in the league, Columbus. As you'd expect, goaltending has been the main issue.  I don't like their chances tonight in Philadelphia. 

The Flyers, like the Canadiens, currently find themselves on the outskirts of playoff contention.  Their 50 points are the second fewest in the Metro right now, but actually only two back of the Habs, which shows just how far Montreal has fallen. In their final game before the Break, Philly picked up a big overtime win against the best team in the East, Washington. It was the same 4-3 score when they beat Montreal back on January 5th. They outshot the Habs 31-24 that day. Goaltending, whether it's Steve Mason or Michael Neuvirth, has been strong of late, particularly during this 6-3-1 stretch the team is on. After scoring 4+ goals their previous game, the Flyers are 6 -3 this season.

There's really no area where Montreal isn't struggling right now. Without Price, play between the pipes has fallen off dramatically. They have given up an average of 3.1 goals per game over their last 27 contests. Over the last five games, the team's save percentage is a woeful .835, an unfathomably bad number. The offense has failed to pick up the pace, averaging just 1.8 goals their last 19 games. The power play is 8 for its last 80! The last time that the Canadiens won a game in regulation was January 6th. Normally, I might approach this as a team where you can "buy low," but the issue here is they are still thought of as a top contender in the East. That's just not the reality of the matter, plus the Habs are 1-5 SU this year when playing w/ three or more days rest.  10* Philadelphia

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): The Rockets have lost three in a row, the last two coming at home. That surprises me. They were seven-point favorites in an 81-79 loss to Ohio last Tuesday and a 5.5-point favorite in a 73-68 loss to Buffalo on Saturday. I'm really shocked to see this team have only a 6-4 SU home record as they are averaging 81.4 PPG here and outscoring opponents by a double digit margin for the season. As you might expect, they have not shot the ball particularly well during this losing skid. It's been 40% or lower in every game, which obviously needs to improve, but fortunately for them tonight they are getting Western Michigan outside of Kalamazoo. The Broncos are just 1-8 SU in road/neutral site affairs while averaging just 64.2 points per game.  Lay the points here.

Western Michigan gave up a lot of points (86) in its victory Saturday over rival Eastern Michigan, 63 of them in the second half in fact. One would have to go back to December to find the last time the Broncos posted B2B SU victories. In that instance, they were fortunate enough to play Marygrove (a non-DI school). There has been no other instance this year of WMU winning consecutive contests. Now, they aren't favored here, but note they have a poor 3-11 ATS record as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  With the poor defensive effort last time out & the poor YTD offensive numbers on the road, it is difficult to see this team playing well in this spot. It is a virtual certainty that their three-point shooting percentage will drop from the last game where they went 10 of 14.  Keep in mind that in "true" road games, the Broncos are 0 for 6 (straight up). 

Shockingly, Toledo never led Saturday at home vs. Buffalo. That came on the heels of falling behind Ohio by as many as 20 points.  Could they really play poorly for a third straight time at home? I'm willing to bet that the answer is no. This three-game losing streak is the program's longest in the last three seasons.  The market has had them favored in 15 of 18 lined games thus far, so while they've fallen short of expectations, I do think it speaks volumes as to where the Rockets SHOULD be in the MAC pecking order.  I like them to win big here. 8* Toledo

10* Georgia (7:00 ET):  South Carolina still only has just two losses on its resume, yet they remain on the fringes of the Top 25, which is telling w/ a group of people who generally lean too heavily on wins and losses. The Gamecocks have exceeded even the wildest expectations of HC Frank Martin, going 19-2 SU and 13-4 ATS overall.  Interestingly, this looks like the first time all year that they may close as an underdog. Reconciling that w/ the notion of overachieving can be a little bit contradictory, but it also speaks to the fact that the schedule has been somewhat weak. Recent road games have presented a bit of trouble (lost 2 of 3) and after a big revenge win at home Saturday, I see them dropping another here. 

Georgia is South Carolina's opponent tonight. While the Bulldogs lost both regular season matchups to the Gamecocks last year, they wound up the third time proved to be "the charm" in the SEC Tournament. They come into tonight off a pair of tough road losses to LSU and Baylor. Despite the results on the scoreboard there, the 'Dawgs should be ready to "bark" here, so to speak.  Getting to step outside of SEC play over the weekend (Big 12 Challenge) while South Carolina did not is actually an advantage, I think.  UGA actually led Baylor by three at halftime, in Waco mind you, and that's a place where no non-Big 12 team has won in the last 34 tries. This is a team w/ four double digit scorers on its roster and they are 10-3 SU here in Athens. Remember that they destroyed another South Carolina school, that being Clemson, here right after X-Mas.

I played against South Carolina in their last road game, which was a 78-69 loss to Tennessee, another game that closed in the Pick 'em range. That followed a narrow win at Ole Miss where overtime was required after the Gamecocks somehow rallied back from an 11-point deficit in the final four minutes. They've also lost by 23 at Alabama. Yes, Martin's team has bounced back w/ B2B wins, including avenging that 'Bama loss on Saturday.  But they shouldn't count on getting to the free throw line 46 times like they did Saturday (only made 28!). Plus, it will be tough for USC to continue getting away w/ allowing 37.4% three-point shooting on the road. Georgia's three-point numbers are more in line w/ what you'd like to see.  10* Georgia

8* Under Magic/Spurs (8:35 ET): Finally, at long last, Orlando ended its miserable losing streak (at eight games) w/ a 119-114 upset of Boston yday. The Magic ended January w/ just two wins (against 12 losses) and weren't much better at the betting window either w/ a 3-11 ATS mark. I certainly won't want to back them here as they face a San Antonio team that's off a rare humbling defeat, but at the same time the Magic were once upon a time one of the better ATS teams in the league (21-9 through 30 games!) and probably are due to start covering more games moving forward. Thus, we turn to the total, which I believe to be far too high given the Spurs' defensive prowess and the fact Orlando is due to start regressing offensively.  Under is the play here.

Over their last five games, the Magic are scoring an average of 106.2 points per game, which is well above their overall season average of 99.2 PPG and even more so above their average out on the road of 96.4 PPG. In yday's win over Boston, they shot 53.7 percent from the floor (56.8 percent in the second half) and made 10 three-pointers.  Regression is to be expected here as they face the top defensive team in the league, the Spurs, who allow just 89.6 PPG here at home on 42.5% shooting. If there is one "silver lining" for Orlando here it's that San Antonio is unlikely to connect on as many three-pointers (16!) as Boston did last night. Orlando's defensive numbers over the last five games (112.0 PPG allowed) are also significantly higher than the season average (100.2), so all around we're due to start seeing their games be a lot lower scoring, especially after each of those last five went Over.

Twice in the last three games, San Antonio's top ranked defense has been shredded.  Both times came against top tier opponents, however. Last Monday, it was Golden State scoring 120 in a 30-point blowout win and then Saturday, Cleveland nearly matched that w/ 117 pts. Both of those games were also on the road. Tim Duncan likely misses a fourth straight game here, but the key here is that off a loss, the Spurs are allowing just 84.7 PPG this season (7-0 SU/ATS). Orlando is 7-2 Under after topping 105 pts in its last game. 8* Under Magic/Spurs

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET):  Despite being considered no worse than the fourth best team in basketball (I have them ranked 3rd), the Thunder have had plenty of problems w/ the pointspread this season. In fact, entering today, they have the second worst ATS record in the entire league (18-30-1 ATS), trailing only Phoenix. Yet the market continues to respect them and deservedly so. They are 36-13 straight up and have lost only one time in their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the non-political news out of Washington shows that the Wizards are off an outright win over Houston (whom OKC also just beat in their last game) after calling a "players-only" meeting. Some will be foolish enough to think that said meeting corrected whatever ails the Wiz, but not I, as the fact of the matter is this team simply isn't very good. Lay the points.

Oklahoma City does come into tonight on a five-game ATS losing streak. The problem has been their defense, which has allowed 115 points per game during that time.  Consider though that one of those games did go to overtime. Also, four were played on the road. Their last, a 116-108 win over Houston wasn't, but they still are allowing just 98.4 PPG here at home for the season.  A "return to form" is what I expect here tonight. The Thunder should have a big edge defensively as Washington is just awful on that end of the floor, ranking 20th in efficiency and giving up 104.8 PPG. With OKC being #2 in offensive efficiency, they should have no problems scoring here against the Wizards.

These teams already met once this season and the Thunder dominated in D.C., winning 125-101. They were a seven-point favorite in that contest, which makes the line rather curious here. Not surprisingly, OKC shot the ball very well against the Wizards, finishing 51.2% for the game, including 15 of 23 from three-point range. Washington was just 39.2% overall and 5 of 24 from behind the arc. I anticipate tonight's game to play out in similar fashion. The Wizards are just 2-7 ATS off a SU dog win this year and w/o HC Randy Wittman (brother passed away).  Westbrook and Durant will be too much.  10* Oklahoma City

10* Louisville (7:00 ET):  Rick Pitino's Cardinals ran into a buzzsaw named Virginia Saturday afternoon. The 11th ranked Cavaliers came to the KFC YUM! Center and destroyed the Cards, 63-47 as five-point dogs. Things got ugly in a hurry w/ L'ville scoring only 14 first half points en route to suffering their worst ever loss at the KFC YUM! Center. There were 18 turnovers and UVA shot a somewhat preposterous 58 percent from the field w/ L'ville shot a season-worst 33 percent. As bad as that all sounds, the good news is that it's just one game and Pitino's charges will have a shot at atoning for that miserable performance here tonight, back at home, against #2 North Carolina. The computers still love Louisville and so do I, thus I'll call for a bounce back and a win.

Right after Louisville had been humbled by Virginia Saturday afternoon, North Carolina took care of business (as 26-pt favorites!) at home against Boston College. It's quite rare to see a favorite of that size in conference play, but it was actually the second time the Tar Heels had been favored by that many over the Eagles in recent years. The win was UNC's 12th in a row, but I believe it's important to note that none of those came against ranked opponents and just one (Clemson) opponent had a winning record in ACC play. They did beat a pretty good NC State team by 12 in Chapel Hill, but overall the ACC slate has been pretty "light" for Roy Williams and company. Forcing turnovers (season-high 23) vs. Boston College was a real key Saturday. Interestingly, before shooting 53.7 percent against BC, the Tar Heels had been below 40 percent from the field in three consecutive games. 

Clearly, each team's previous result has played a significant role in this line being so low. I'm quite fond of the ideas of "buying low" and "selling high," and that's what we have the opportunity to do here.  Consider that Louisville still has one of the best scoring differentials in the country (+19.1 PPG) and even after the loss to Virginia that number jumps to +26.8 at home!  One would have to go pretty far back in time to find the last time the Cardinals were this small a home favorite, let alone a Pick or even underdog. The value here resides w/ them, plus UNC's three point shooting numbers should continue to worry their backers (just 30.8% themselves, 41.8% allowed). 10* Louisville

10* Arizona State (8:30 ET):   Oregon is off a very impressive road win as they snapped Arizona's 49-game home win streak Thursday w/ an 83-75 win as seven-point underdogs. Now comes the inevitable letdown as they have to play a second road game this weekend, this one in Tempe. Arizona State was due for a big win (had lost three straight by 5 pts or less) and that's what they got w/ an 86-68 beatdown of Oregon State here on Thursday.  That improved their mark to a strong 9-3 straight up here in Tempe this season.  They played the Ducks tough twice last year, but lost both meetings by a total of four points.  Time for a bit of revenge in my estimation as this is just the third time the Sun Devils are catching points in Tempe. The first saw them beat Texas A&M (a top five team!) outright.  Take the points.

Oregon shot 51.6% in their upset of Arizona, but the bigger story was them overcoming the Wildcats shooting 61.0% from the field!  Obviously, it is unlikely that they will have such a hot shooting opponent again. But the Ducks are just 1-6 against the spread the last seven times they have laid three points or less on the road and have lost five of those games outright. We know that the rankings can often times be misleading and the fact is that there's really little difference between where Oregon is at (23rd) and Arizona State is. When taking home court advantage into account, I'm not sure that the wrong team isn't favored here. The Ducks were only 1-2 SU in "true" road games before the upset of Arizona.

ASU shot a season-best 59.3% vs. Oregon State, but the more encouraging sign for HC Bobby Hurley had to be his team's defense.  OSU's best player, Gary Payton II, was held to just two points. On offensive, five Sun Devils scored in double figures and it should be noted that the team has topped 80 points in every Pac 12 home game so far.  Another key here could be free throw shooting. As "eye rolling" as it may be, the ASU fans distracting opposing FT shooters does work (road teams shooting just 68.7% from the FT line here) and Oregon is the worst FT shooting team in the Pac 12.  10* Arizona State

8* Illinois (7:30 ET): If you like close games, then you have to be loving Wisconsin's run here in Big 10 play, which has seen all but one game (a 79-57 win over lowly Rutgers) decided by six points or less. Following three straight tough losses (by a total of nine points), the Badgers have rallied back to win three in a row (by a total of 10 pts), including Tuesday's 82-79 upset of Indiana (were 1.5 pt home dogs) that required overtime. I was on the Badgers there, but after pulling two upsets in the last three games, now it's time to fade as they visit an Illinois team that will be angry after suffering a home loss (as 2-pt favorites) to Ohio State earlier in the week. The Illini will also have revenge on their minds for last season's sweep at the hands of the Badgers. Take the points.

It was also an overtime game for Illinois their last time out, but as I just stated, they came out on the wrong end against Ohio State. They shot just 32 percent from the field and missed 13 of 31 free throws, costly seeing as the game went to OT.  They did trail by as many as 13 in the second half, so perhaps a late rally will carry over into this game. It's been a tough time for John Groce's team in Big 10 play (2-6 SU conference record), but they have been much better defensively the L2 games (both of which went to OT), holding opponents to 69.5 PPG despite the 10 extra minutes played and have one of the lowest turnover rates in the entire nation (14.3 percent). Better time should be ahead.

I really don't think that Wisconsin should be favored here. They are just 5-8 ATS in that role this season and have a losing road record (straight up).  They did cover as a short road favorite 10 days ago, but that was against Penn State.  Note that Illinois did beat Purdue on this floor earlier this month.  The Illini's top two scorers - Malcolm Hill (18.3 PPG) and Kendrick Nunn (17.9) remain the league's highest scoring duo on any team. Shockingly, Wisconsin has won eight straight in this Big 10 rivalry, including a pair of double digit wins last season.  After topping 80 points in their previous game, the Badgers are 0-3 ATS this season. It's time for Wisconsin to cool off and Illinois to pick up a big win. 8* Illinois

10* Phoenix (7:05 ET):  Back on December 14th, Dallas picked up what seemed like a "ho-hum" 104-94 home win and cover (-3.5) at the expense of Phoenix.  Since that time, I probably don't need to tell you that it's been nothing but "dark days" for these Suns, who have gone an unfathomably bad 3-20 SU their last 23 games. The result of this is a much larger spread for tonight's trip into "Big D" and this time, I think there is some pretty significant value on the visitors. Remember that last week's top play was on a large underdog (Brooklyn) that seemingly had nothing going right for it. It's a similar mentality tonight in taking the points as the Mavs probably don't deserve to be in such a lofty price range.

Tonight actually marks the first time that Dallas has been favored in consecutive games since early in the month when they hosted New Orleans and Sacramento (didn't cover either game). Helping to drive up the line here is the fact the Mavericks are coming off a 91-79 win and cover over Brooklyn Friday night. That was the second fewest points given up by the Mavs in a game all season. The fewest was 77 in a win over Chicago on January 15th and note they followed that performance up by losing by 29 at San Antonio (allowed 112 pts). Despite being five games over .500, the Mavs have been outscored by their opponents this season and they've had a great deal of good fortune this month, winning three overtime games. When factoring out those OT sessions, the team has topped 100 pts only three times in January!

For Phoenix, this is the finale of a four-game trip, the first three all resulting in double digit losses.  Just to show how much the market has (deservingly) shifted against them, the Suns were six-point favorites in the season opener vs. Dallas. I took the Mavs there, but public perception has now shifted too far in the other direction.  The Mavs' 28-21 ATS record is a far cry from last year while no one has been worse than Phoenix at the betting window this season. However, the great equalizer here is the fact that Dallas has not been a double digit fave even one time in 2015-16.  Take the points. 10* Phoenix

10* Evansville (4:00 ET):  This is a matchup of the top two teams in the Missouri Valley and for first place Wichita State, who is two games up, they have an opportunity to put some real distance between them and the field. However, the Purple Aces of Evansville should have something to say about that as not only did they come closer than any other MVC team to beating the Shockers, but they are also a perfect 11-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average margin of almost 20 points per game! Last month in Wichita, Evansville lost by only three (as 10.5-pt underdogs), but because of how dominant the Shockers have been recently, the linesmakers have adjusted "the other way."  That's a mistake.  Take the points.

Evansville has just four losses all season. The first came at a neutral site vs. Providence, a top 10 team. The others (besides Wichita State) were on the road against Arkansas and Indiana State. The latter came exactly one week ago, but the Purple Aces quickly bounced back by downing Southern Illinois (in overtime) at Carbondale, 85-78, thanks to shooting 55 percent from the field.  Normally, I might be inclined to call for regression with that shooting percentage, but this is a team making 56% of its two-point attempts this season (they're not bad from 3pt range either - 38.2%). Indiana State and Wichita State are the only teams to hold them below 50 percent in conference play. The Purple Aces are 6-2 ATS in January.

  There is no denying how dominant Wichita State has been in conference play. They're 9-0 SU, winning by an average of 21.1 points per game! However, this is the only opponent that has been able to stay within single digits of them. Consider that in that first meeting, WSU never had a lead of more than nine points. It's not hyperbole to call this the Purple Aces' biggest home game in years as they have lost six straight times to Wichita State, including a humiliating 61-41 loss here last season. I expect the crowd to be rocking Sunday afternoon. Wichita State has been ridiculous on the road the L3 seasons (23-9 ATS), but I think we've reached the proverbial "tipping point" w/ this bunch, who cannot continue their current pace for much longer.  10* Evansville

10* Ohio State (1:00 ET): The Buckeyes just pulled an upset in their last game (on the road vs. Illinois), but winning here would be even more impressive as #8 Maryland comes calling to Columbus. OSU catches the Terrapins in prime position for a letdown after they picked up a big win over Iowa (in College Park) earlier this week. This is also a huge revenge spot for Thad Matta's team after they were humbled 100-65 down in Maryland just two weeks ago. However, the shift in scene is vital as the Terps have dropped their L2 road games, to Michigan and Michigan State. Also, they lost here last season by 24. Thanks to holding opponents to just 60.1 PPG, OSU is 11-3 SU here in Columbus and they have what it takes to pull the upset. Take the points.

Like last year, the computers and various rating systems are not really in love w/ this Maryland team. Thursday's 74-68 (were 5.5 pt favorites) win over Iowa was their first all season over a ranked opponent. They haven't even had many opportunities to win in that situation, mind you, as prior to the L2 games, they'd played just one ranked team, that being North Carolina. Furthermore, this is just their fourth "true" road game (only win by three at Wisconsin), so the Terrapins still have a lot to prove, IMO. Four of their conference wins, including Iowa, have come by six points or less. They had an issue w/ giving up far too many offensive rebounds against Michigan State and Northwestern and that could be an issue here against an opponent that has dominated the glass in its last two games.

Ohio State has covered three in a row since that humiliating loss in College Park. If something could go wrong in that first meeting, it did, as Maryland shot 62.7% compared to just 37.3% for OSU. Clearly, you should expect those percentages to even out here. The Buckeyes have held their last two opponents both under 34 percent shooting and as mentioned before have been quite stingy this season at home. As a result, three of their four Big 10 home games have resulted in double digit wins! Under Matta, they are 8-2 ATS seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points and this year they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home when the total is 135 to 139.5.  8* Ohio State

8* Portland (10:00 ET):  The Pilots really let me down Thursday night w/ an 87-76 outright loss here at home to San Francisco.  But, despite that, I see them bouncing back in yet another revenge spot, this time against Santa Clara. These teams first met back on January 2nd and there it was Santa Clara prevailing 84-77 as 1.5-point home dogs. But the Broncos' chances of making it a season sweep seem pretty slim to me as they are just 2-8 SU away from home, including 1-6 in "true" road games. Portland has already lost outright (as favorites) four times in conference play. They couldn't possibly get swept for a second time, losing all four games outright, right?   Lay the points.

Portland had revenge Thursday vs. USF, but fell behind big early (41-25) and could not recover. That makes it seven losses in eight games since opening up 2-0 SU in WCC play. That skid began w/ a loss at San Francisco, which was then followed by a dismal shooting performance (33.3 percent) at Santa Clara. Offense typically is not an issue for these Pilots, who are averaging 77.9 PPG this year, including an impressive 82.2 at home. That's a far cry from their opponent here as Santa Clara checks in at just 65.5 points per game. Assuming Portland can tighten up its defensive woes, it should theoretically be in good shape here. It's their second straight home game while its the Broncos second road game in three nights.

Santa Clara was predictably torched by Gonzaga their last time out, losing 84-67.  Though they did cover (as 18-pt dogs), it was the team's third loss in a row overall.  All three losses have been by double digits.  Like Portland, the Broncos currently find themselves in the lower tier of the conference, so this is a matchup the home team simply must take advantage of.  The key in that first meeting was Santa Clara going a season-best 32 of 37 from the free throw line.  I don't see anywhere close to a repeat of that here.  8* Portland

10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): Recently, the Kings have been favored quite a number of times and that's caught me by surprise. The team is now six games below the Mendoza Line (.500), yet has been deemed the favorite by the oddsmakers five times in the last six games. The first three, they actually won and covered. But the last two, including Thursday night in New Orleans, they lost outright. Back to their customary role of taking points, I feel the Kings are a good value tonight in Memphis against a suddenly surging opponent. Defensively, they may still have their issues (30th in PPG allowed), but the Grizzlies are bound to start cooling off. Take the points.

When it comes to actual vs. expected wins, no team in the league has a bigger discrepancy than Memphis. Based on point differential alone, they should be a 20-win team (actual record is 27-20), which would have them on par with the Kings. Thus, I'm not surprised to see the Grizz only being given credit for the home court edge here in what linesmakers see as a essentially a toss-up.  I will concede that Memphis' point differential remains a bit skewed from some early season blowouts that they suffered, but still, I don't think they're as good as their overall record. Offensively, they've been playing above their heads the last seven games after previously averaging a Western Conference low 95.9 PPG. While they did destroy Milwaukee in impressive fashion Thursday (I cashed the Under in that game), note that four of their previous six wins had come by three points or fewer.

George Karl was not on the bench for the Kings when they went down in New Orleans, 114-105, Thursday night.  It appeared they missed him as they fell down 37-19 after just one quarter. Karl is not guaranteed to return tonight, but I would look for DeMarcus Cousins to continue his recent strong play on the offensive end. He went for 26-10-6 in the losing effort vs. the Pelicans and will be the best player on the floor tonight. Memphis doesn't have anyone that can go for 30 points in a half like Ryan Anderson did for New Orleans. The Grizzlies are also just 3-6 SU/ATS this season following a double digit win. 10* Sacramento

10* Georgetown (8:00 ET):  Providence is a team that despite its #10 ranking doesn't get a ton of respect. Case in point, the Friars are underdogs here to an unranked Georgetown team. Most rating systems also aren't as sold on them. Two of the main ones I follow actually have them outside the top 40! So, they'll probably be a good "go against" team for me that first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but first we have some regular season opportunities to fade this group.  One such opportunity is tonight as G'town is quietly improving. Sure, it was just a one-point win over Creighton (at home) Tuesday. But that made it four wins in the last six games for the Hoyas and the only two losses came to Villanova (who's very good) and at UConn.  Lay the points here as this will be called an "upset," but really it's not.

After upsetting Villanova on Sunday, Providence somewhat predictably fell in a tough spot vs. Xavier just two days later.  Tuesday was not a great shooting night for the Friars, who finished the game at just 31.4% overall, including 7 of 34 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Xavier was able to get shots to fall against their zone. Good fortune, for the most part, has gone Providence's way this season as they are 5-1 SU in games decided by four points or less. They also are one of only four teams nationally yet to drop a "true" road game. They are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in other teams' gyms, but the margins for error have often been razor slim, including a 50-48 win at Creighton earlier this year where they somehow got away w/ shooting only 29.6% from the field.

Georgetown recently beat Xavier, on the road, and did so by holding the Musketeers to just 35.3% shooting. They followed that up w/ another sound defensive effort at UConn, but lost close.  However, rallying back from 11 down to beat Creighton earlier this week might be a turning point.  Note that the Hoyas actually have a better record in Big East play compared to Providence (6-2 vs. 5-3) and are only a game back of Villanova for first place.  This is a double revenge spot for the home team as well as LY saw them lose both meetings by three points.  10* Georgetown

10* Indiana (7:05 ET):  Needless to say, January has not gone as well as December did for the Pacers.  They are just 6-8 - both straight up and against the spread - this month, but you certainly had to like what you saw Thursday night here at home when they thrashed Atlanta 111-92 as three-point favorites. That marked just the second time in the last eight games that they covered, the other being a 12-point loss at Golden State where they were getting 12.5 (I cashed them there!). Here, they are laying a relatively sizable number, but "it's only Denver" and I think you have to like the Pacers' chances. Not only is it the Nuggets' third road game in four nights, but Indiana has revenge for a loss suffered just two weeks ago. Lay the points.

The Pacers wasted what was perhaps their best offensive game of the year January 17th in Denver, losing 129-126 despite shooting 58.5% from the field, including 9 of 19 from three-point range. They gave up a mind-numbing 45 points in the fourth quarter and were outscored 16-7 over the final 3:39.  Not to make excuses, but Indiana was a bit short-handed there as only 10 players dressed, which is tough when playing in the altitude. This is a much better team at home (14-7 SU) w/ an average scoring margin of +6.1 PPG and a change in the starting lineup worked big time in the last game. Starting for the first time in his career, Myles Turner went for 20 points against the Hawks. Once again, I do not think offense will be a concern here for the Pacers.

Denver is off an outright win at Washington two nights ago, 117-113 (were getting 7.5), one night removed from "backdooring" Boston (trailed by 20+).   Despite going 6-1 ATS their last seven games, the Nuggets are giving up an average of 111.7 points per game during that stretch.  Off a SU win as a dog, they are just 4-9 ATS this year and I think the offensive numbers are due to drop here considering their YTD scoring average away from home is just 98.7.  They've played a ton of close games recently, but at the end of a trip out East, I see them simply running out of gas here. I just think that because of recent form on both sides, the pointspread does not accurately reflect the gap between these two.  10* Indiana

10* NC State (3:00 ET):  Last Saturday, I went AGAINST the Wolfpack, here in Raleigh. They hosted desperate Duke team (that was on a three-game losing streak) and after a surprisingly good start (led 43-36 at halftime), eventually the Blue Devils proved to be too much and it ended up being an 88-78 final w/ Duke covering as chalk. Honestly, having already won two early plays that day (ended up going 5-0!), I somewhat had written off that one as a loss. NC State HC Mark Gottfried has every right to say his team is "better than the record" as despite the 1-7 SU mark in ACC play, almost every game has been close (five losses by 7 pts or less). Miami, who is off a win over Duke on Monday, comes in here and I feel is quite vulnerable. Take the points.

Against Duke, NC State definitely played good enough to win. They shot 57 percent in the first half and were up by as many as 10. They just couldn't stop Duke in the second half and defense was again an issue Wednesday vs. Georgia Tech as they gave up 90 points. There, the 1st half performance was not good as they were down 47-33 at the break. Thanks to a career-high 22 points from Abdul-Malik Abu and 36 more from Anthony Barber (ACC's leading scorer), the Wolfpack were able to whittle that lead down to one. But, alas, it was not to be.  In my mind, I just can't see them dropping a third game in a row at home. Overall, they are 0-4 SU in ACC home games, twice losing outright as favorites.

Miami is probably in position for a letdown after beating Duke.  Said PG Angel Rodriguez, "I like playing the powerhouses."  In many ways, Monday was the Hurricanes best game so far in conference play.  They shot 50.8 percent from the field and turned the ball over only seven times. Interesting is that this team is 0-4 ATS in "true" road games so far, including a pair of outright losses to Virginia and Clemson earlier this month. There's an actually been an issue for them in getting off to slow starts as in conference play, they're averaging just 29.3 PPG in the first half. NC State has just been so close so many times that I feel they are just "due" for an upset here. 10* NC State

8* Florida (12:00 ET):  The Gators are one of those teams that still draw respect from the computers despite a relatively pedestrian won-loss record. Michael White's (still feels weird not saying Billy Donovan) crew has three losses this season by three points or fewer. That includes Tuesday's tough one-point loss at similarly under-achieving Vanderbilt where they were held to just 0.86 points per possession. What then can we lean on for support? How about the country's fourth best defense in terms of adjusted efficiency (.898 PPP)? That will come in handy here seeing as they welcome in the team that's #1 in defensive efficiency currently, that being West Virginia, Saturday as a part of the Big 12-SEC Challenge. As tough as the Mountaineers have been, their defensive numbers are more likely to regress and they are down one key player due to suspension. Lay the points.

After suffering B2B losses to Oklahoma and Texas, WVU has bounced back w/ consecutive victories over Texas Tech and Kansas State. The latter shot just 35.1% percent against them. As I've written about before, this team cannot possibly maintain it's defensive field goal percentage numbers. Teams are shooting just 26.8% against them from three-point range (Kansas St was 1 for 18!) and that number actually goes DOWN when they are the road team. We've actually already started to see a minor increase in opponent's overall shooting percentage. At the same time, the Mounties are shooting 46.7% themselves on the road. Again, that could prove difficult to sustain. Bob Huggins' team is 0-3 ATS vs. the SEC the L3 seasons.

The Gators are actually holding their opponents to a lower overall shooting percentage (38.6%!) than WVU.  Being favored here, against a Top 10 opponent, is not problematic seeing as UF is 9-1 SU in Gainesville this year and 11-2 SU/8-4 ATS as chalk. The key suspension for WVU that I referenced earlier is forward Jonathan Holton, who had been averaging a double-double (12.3 points, 10.3 rebounds) the L3 games. Provided Florida can regain the shooting touch they lost vs. Vandy (had previously made 9+ 3-pt FGs in four straight games) & takes care of the basketball, this will be an upset that isn't really an upset. 8* Florida

8* Under Rockets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Houston was in the proverbial "wrong place at the wrong time," matched up with San Antonio on Wednesday as the Spurs were in an angry mood after being dealt a 30-point loss by Golden State Monday. The result was the "script being flipped" on the Rockets as they got blown out 130-99. Defense has often become optional for this team this year, which is why they have struggled for much of the campaign and are a big money burner at the betting window.  Tonight's opponent, Oklahoma City, is actually worse against the spread (18-29-1 overall) after just going 0-4 on a recently completed road trip (did win three of the four games straight up). Thus, the best play here is on the total and I think it's the Under as we have a really high number, one that's higher than the last meeting which also stayed Under.

This is just the 6th time this season that we've seen a total north of 220 points. Four of the previous five were Golden State vs. Sacramento, a pairing of the league's highest scoring offense against the worst defense. The other did involve the Thunder (hosting the Kings) and the final score there stayed well below the number as it was a 98-95 final. The total here is higher, so this marks a season-high O/U line for both squads. When they last played, very early in the season in Houston, the final score was 110-105 in favor of the Thunder. Recent form on both ends has the number even higher for the rematch and I certainly think there's now plenty of value in calling for another Under.

Each of OKC's last two games have seen them score and allow 120+ points. But one of those (at New York) went to overtime.  The Over cashed in all four games on their just completed trip, but interestingly the Under is 17-9 this season in their home games. That includes a 6-4 mark when the total is north of 210 points. Defensively, the Thunder are allowing only 98.0 PPG here at Chesapeake Energy Arena. As for Houston, the Over is 6-1 for them the L7 games. But as an underdog this season, the Under had been 11-3 for them before their last three times in that role. Too much has to "break right" for a game to go Over a total like this. 8* Under Rockets/Thunder

10* WI-Milwaukee (8:00 ET):  This in-state, Horizon League rivalry is renewed for the 54th time Friday night and crazy as this may seem, Milwaukee has yet to cover a single home game this season (0-6 ATS). The Panthers check in off an outright loss, as 3.5-point favorites, to Oakland earlier in the week. They lost the game 82-79 as Oakland sharpshooter Max Hooper made seven three-pointers. The program has had to deal w/ some attrition lately as second leading scorer Akeem Springs (14.3 PPG) is injured and Justin Jordan (MJ's nephew) transferred. Despite that, I like the matchup tonight vs. Green Bay, who is just atrocious defensively. Tonight also marks a double revenge spot for the Panthers. Lay the points.

Green Bay is one of the most unique teams in the entire country. What I mean by the term "unique" is that they are incredible offensively, yet horrendous defensively. All program records on the offensive end are set to be smashed in this, the first year under HC Linc Darner. The Phoenix average 86.2 points per game, second most in the nation, due in large part to their ability to get to the free throw line (30.4 attempts per game!). But being on the road here likely limits just how much they get to the charity stripe and then there's the matter of the defense, which has allowed 100+ points FIVE times this season, including each of the last two games!  They are allowing 81.3 PPG for the season. 

After giving up 111 in regulation to Oakland on Saturday, Green Bay gave up 108 in an overtime win vs. Detroit (at home) on Monday. Note that snapped a four-game ATS losing streak in Horizon League play for the Phoenix.  Did I mention that Milwaukee already averages 85.6 PPG here at home? This game marks a dramatic departure from the previous five meetings, all of which have seen Green Bay favored, four times by double digits in fact. The Phoenix shot better than 55 percent from the floor in BOTH meetings last year, something I do not see happening here, even w/ the prolific offense. I'm just not sure they can continue competing with a defense this bad. 10* WI-Milwaukee

10* Orlando (7:35 ET):  Both the Magic & Celtics are coming off somewhat of a "bad beat" in their previous games. Orlando actually led Milwaukee (on the road) by as many as 16 in the first half before wilting late and failing to even cover the 5.5-pt spread (lost 107-100). Meanwhile, Boston may have gotten the SU win their last time out, but the result at the betting window was just as unfortunate as Orlando's w/ them seeing a 20-point fourth quarter lead whittled down to a final 111-103 margin, thereby denying them the cover against Denver as 8.5-point chalk. Sadly, I was on the wrong end of both of those decisions. But, in a battle of two teams I just backed, I'm going to take the points here as the Magic are more "due" to cover.

Remember when Orlando was the top ATS team in the league? Through their first 30 games, they stood at 21-9 against the spread (70 percent). Since that time, however, things have not gone so well for Scott Skiles' team. They've covered just 2 of their last 13 games and they've won only one time (over Brooklyn) in 2016. They've lost seven in a row coming into tonight, the last three all coming in painful fashion. I already mentioned the blown lead vs. Milwaukee Tuesday night, but before that they dropped B2B overtime games to Charlotte and Memphis. Despite all the recent misfortune, I still feel that this is a competitive team. Note that five of their last seven losses have been by seven points or less. They have actually held a double-digit lead in three of the last four games, only to lose every time. 

Boston is a team I've spoken of in glowing terms in past analysis, but they are due to cool off a bit offensively after topping 100 pts in each of their last 10 games. Note that they have not won five games in a row, something they are going for here, at any point this season. Defense has been a key during the win streak, but can they really hold a fifth straight opponent under 43 percent shooting? I'm willing to bet the answer is 'no.' Note that in the previous four games, the Celtics were allowing an average of 113.3 PPG. As two-point home dogs, the Magic destroyed them early this season, 110-91 at home. This shapes up as close game where the value is on the dog. 10* Orlando

8* San Diego (10:30 ET): We are both "buying low" and "selling high" in this conference matchup, which sees USD going for revenge against visiting Pepperdine. I'm not sure who the Torerors angered at the WCC schedule makers office, but so far they have played just six home games. They had to play each of the last four on the road and that went about as well as expected w/ them dropping the last three after an upset of Portland. However, after getting blown out at both Gonzaga and Pepperdine, things were a lot closer Saturday at Loyola Marymount where they lost by only four (as six-point dogs). Meanwhile, this is a good spot to fade Pepperdine, who followed up their blowout of the Torerors w/ an upset of BYU over the weekend.  Take the points.

Pepperdine was an 11.5-point home favorite when they beat up on USD, 76-58, exactly one week ago. Now, they are being asked to lay a number that's somewhat close to that on the road. Clearly, the linesmakers had to adjust because of the final score of last week's meeting, but don't expect the Waves to come in and shoot 52.3% from the floor like they did at home. Interestingly, they are just 4-8 against the spread when favored this season and just 4-7 SU away from home (includes neutral site games). This marks the fourth time that Pepperdine has been favored out on the conference road and in two of the previous three instances, they have lost the game outright (at Portland and Santa Clara). 

It was an all-around disastrous shooting effort for San Diego last Thursday as they finished the game at just 37.9 percent, including 5 for 19 from three-point range. They also were just 9 for 15 from free throw line. Scoring has been a bit of a concern this year for the Torerors, but defense has not, at least here at home where they are limiting foes to just 61.8 PPG. If they can keep Pepperdine right around that number, then they should be in excellent shape tonight.  Again, this team just hasn't gotten to play many home games this season. Saturday at LMU, the Torerors blew a nine-point lead w/ just over five minutes to go. This is their chance to make up for that and exact some revenge in the process. 8* San Diego

10* Portland (10:00 ET):  We've reached the point in several of these conferences where revenge will start to become a factor. Yes, the revenge angle can be overplayed. But here, I think we have an excellent opportunity to cash in on a team whose current status clearly reads "buy low."  Portland is coming off B2B road losses, first to Pacific, then to St. Mary's, and that has left the Pilots at just 9-13 SU for the year. They've now dropped six of their last seven and that slide started w/ a 107-95 loss at San Francisco (no overtime!), a game where they were actually favored by two. Now having to lay just a few points more at home, where Portland is 7-3 SU and much better defensively, seems like a solid value to me. 

That first meeting between these two was rather insane as Portland actually scored 62 points in the first half and led by 15 w/ just under 13 minutes to play. From there though, USF caught fire, outscoring the Pilots 41-14 the rest of the way. The fact that Portland ended up losing by 12 is very misleading in the sense that they missed their final eight three-point attempts and five of those had a chance to tie the game. It is highly unlikely here that the Dons will come in and shoot 58.3 percent from the floor like they did at home on New Year's Eve.  They also got to the free throw line 40 times the first go around.  Looking back, perhaps Portland got excited about their New Year's plans just a little bit too early. 

The Pilots are a solid 9-2 ATS this season when taking on teams w/ a winning record and San Francisco is now 10-9 SU following an upset of Santa Clara (on the road) exactly one week ago. I really can't see the Dons making it B2B road wins, especially w/ them allowing 76.6 points per game for the season. Portland certainly has had little issue scoring this year (82.0 PPG at home!), so after a couple of "off-nights", I look for them to take advantage here of a USF team that has twice given up 100+ points. Looking at the Dons' last seven games, road wins over San Diego and Santa Clara were the exceptions defensively as in the other five, they allowed 87+ pts. Portland ran into hot-shooting St. Mary's their last time out (62.5 FG%!), something they won't have to worry about here. 10* Portland

10* Northwestern (9:00 ET):  Here's yet another opportunity to exploit the rankings. As I've been writing about a lot lately, home dogs, when unranked, have fared quite well for themselves this year when welcoming in a ranked foe. Last night, I had Arkansas, who handed Texas A&M its first loss in some time.  Here, we have a Northwestern team that was once 13-1 straight up, but Big 10 play has been unkind, leaving them 15-6 currently. The Wildcats are off their worst loss of the season (in terms of margin), 89-57 at Indiana, so there's now some value here. Michigan State treated me well Saturday (Game of the Week WINNER vs. Maryland), but this shapes up as a letdown spot for them after such a big win. Take the points.

Remember that Sparty had lost three in a row itself before turning back Maryland Saturday night.  Granted, two of the losses were by a single point and that played into me taking them in that spot.  But it was by no means easy for Tom Izzo's team against the Terps as it was still only a three-point game w/ only 23 seconds remaining. Six made free throws made the final margin seem a little more comfortable than it actually was as MSU shot a season-worst 36.1 percent from the floor. Playing on the road here, I wouldn't look for them to have a near 2:1 advantage in FT attempts, which is what they enjoyed vs. Maryland.

Meanwhile, N'western is likely due for some offensive improvement after being held under 60 pts in B2B games. One of those saw them lose to Maryland in overtime, on the road, a game where they arguably looked like the better team.  Here in Evanston, they are outscoring opponents by almost 14 PPG thanks to holding them to 38.7% overall shooting. At the same time, the Wildcats' own shooting numbers (46.9% at home) look pretty good. Success against Izzo has been virtually non-existent (3-29 SU L32), but for a program that infamously has NEVER made the NCAA Tournament, a win here could go a long way in re-establishing their standing w/ the committee after the fast start. Look for leading scorer Bryant McIntosh to have a big bounce back game here. 10* Northwestern

10* Under Bucks/Grizzlies (8:05 ET):  Needless to say, Memphis has caught a lot of folks off-guard w/ this run of theirs. Not the one that's seen them capture 10 of their last 14 games, mind you, but rather a streak of going Over the total in eight consecutive contests.  On offense, they have topped 100 pts in all but one of those games, curious for a team still only averaging 96.8 points per game for the year. They've also allowed triple digits in five of the games, including three straight.  The oddsmakers have clearly been slow to "catch on" here, but tonight I think we have an excellent opportunity at an Under as Milwaukee comes to town. Consider that the O/U line here is 10 pts higher than it was for either matchup of these teams last season and both of those games stayed Under! Take the Under.

Now, Milwaukee has regressed badly on the defensive end from last season. They've gone from a second place finish in defensive efficiency last year to being tied at 26th this year. They give up 104.3 points per game on the road and I thought they were quite lucky to come away w/ the win, let alone cover, Tuesday night vs. Orlando. I find it surprising that the Bucks are tied w/ Sacramento for the highest point per game average in the paint in the entire league (49.3). But they figure to meet some resistance here as Memphis gives up the fewest at 37.9 PPG. The Bucks have been shooting the ball pretty well of late, something I don't see being the case here, nor do I see them even approaching the 107 pts scored in their last game.

The key to this play will be Milwaukee somehow limiting Memphis' scoring. Grizzlies HC Dave Joerger has been playing around w/ his lineups a lot lately and has been successful in doing so.  But the one area that the Bucks really struggle to defend, the three-point line, is something that Memphis is unlikely to take too much advantage of. The Grizz rank just 27th in the league in 3pt FG made and attempted. Interestingly, the Bucks rank even lower at 28th in number of three-pointers made and 29th in attempts. Memphis is 5-2 Under this season after scoring 105+ pts its previous game.  10* Under Bucks/Grizzlies

10* Dallas (10:35 ET): The Mavs are in the unusual position of going from 7.5-pt road favorites one game to huge double digit dogs the next, which is quite the shift and of course has everything to do with the respective opponents. Last night, it was the Lakers and Dallas surprisingly escaped LA only a 92-90 winner.  That coupled w/ the fact that this is a revenge spot for Golden State has this line approaching the point of madness and in my estimation the value is on the dog here.  Throw in the fact that the Warriors just clobbered the Spurs by 30 and the public's fascination with the defending NBA Champs figures to be back at pre-New Year's levels. Take the points as the Mavs won't be this big of an underdog the rest of the season.

When these teams last met, it was a much different set of circumstances. Golden State still only had one loss, but was going to be w/o MVP Steph Curry, so I had no hesitation at all about taking the 3.5 points with Dallas.  I ended up not even needing them as the Mavs rolled to a 114-91 win and cover, which until a January 16th loss at Detroit stood as the Warriors' only double digit loss of the season. This go around, Golden State comes in on fire having just annihilated Cleveland, Chicago, Indiana and San Antonio by a combined 107 points! The rematch is also at home where they have yet to lose. Of course, Curry is back too and he just went for 37 points in 28 minutes against the Spurs. But all this has done is serve to drive up the line, which at this point is simply far too high.

I realize that this is the second game of a back to back for the Mavericks, who are likely to be w/o center Zaza Pachulia and guard Devin Harris. But, despite the close call last night, the team should be relatively fresh. No player was on the court for more than 34 minutes against the Lakers, a game where the team simply was not at its best offensively. Maybe they won't be here either, but then again they don't have to be given how generous the oddsmakers are being. The Mavs are 7-4 SU and ATS this season when playing in the second game of a back to back.  10* Dallas

8* Loyola Chicago (9:00 ET): Was it really just last month that I was writing about what a desperate team Wichita State was? At that time, I was making a play ON the Shockers as they were set to take on Utah. They won the game, 67-50 as 3.5-pt favorites, but followed that up w/ an 80-76 (overtime) loss at Seton Hall which left them at just 5-5 SU for the season. Of course, you could "blame" the absence of Fred VanVleet (injury) for a poor 2-4 start (two losses by four pts or less). However, VanVleet is back and so too are the Shockers, who have ripped through an admittedly weaker than usual Missouri Valley Conference to the tune of eight straight wins by an average margin of 20.5 points per game. This drastic turn of events has of course taken them from being undervalued to now potentially overvalued, thus my next move with WSU is to go against them as they host an opponent that is more formidable than you think. 

Loyola (CHI) is a team whose record does not match its overall level of performance. The Ramblers are basically dead even in points scored vs. allowed this year, but are just 9-11 straight up as they've been on the wrong end of far too many close calls. Consider that prior to pulling off a 51-41 upset at Northern Iowa on January 16th, their previous three games - all losses - were decided by a total of five points. But starting w/ that upset of UNI, we've begun to see a much deserved turnaround here. I took the Ramblers getting a nice number at Evansville last Tuesday, and they stayed within it, then it was a win at home against Drake over the weekend. 

Wichita State has won 27 straight times when favored by 12.5 or more (15-10-2 ATS), but this is going to be a challenge laying this much weight.  Not only are they dealing w/ an underrated opponent, but don't discount the potential for a lookahead to a return date this weekend w/ Evansville, who gave the Shockers all they could handle in Wichita earlier this month. Because the Shockers just covered a 30.5-pt spread over the weekend against an awful Bradley team, the linesmakers had no choice to set the bar really high for this one as well, but it's an inflated number worth taking advantage of.  8* Loyola (Chicago)

10* Utah (9:05 ET):  I'm going to disagree w/ my own power ratings, which have Charlotte as the slightly better team here, and instead lay the points. My reasoning has to do with each team's previous result. Charlotte won another overtime game Monday (now 5-0 SU in OT games this season), this one a double overtime affair at Sacramento where they had to overcome an early 15-point deficit and 56 pts from Boogie Cousins. Keep in mind that the Hornets actually checked in as eight-point dogs for that contest. Utah, meanwhile, has not enjoyed the same kind of good fortune Charlotte has and lost a close one (as three-point favorites) here at home to Detroit its last time out. I believe the Jazz are better than their record shows, so I'll lay the number even though it's slightly inflated.

Despite the win at Sacramento, the Hornets are still only 6-15 SU on the road and are allowing 105.1 PPG. They've won three straight - all as underdogs - but both road wins came in OT and saw them rally back after falling behind by double digits. They in fact have three overtime wins in the last five games. I already touched on the game w/ Sacramento (who I was fortunate enough to play against last night), but should also mention that the Hornets were able to take advantage of the Kings' awful defense and connect on a franchise-record 20 made three-pointers. Here, they'll be running into a far stingier group as the Jazz allow just 97.4 PPG, fifth fewest in the league. 

Charlotte also recently won a game at Orlando where they overcame a 19-point deficit. Their other OT win over the L5 games came against this Utah team back on January 18th, 124-119 as 3.5-pt chalk. That was another 2OT game, one that saw Kemba Walker score 52 points, a feat that's highly unlikely to be repeated here. Utah would love to have some of the Hornets' recent good fortune as they're just 3-6 straight up in their last nine games decided by five points or less. That includes a 95-92 loss at home to Detroit on Monday, which came on the heels of a date with Washington being postponed due to weather. The Jazz shot only 40% in Monday's loss (13-pt first quarter), but thankfully they are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Revenge will be theirs. 10* Utah

10* Houston (8:00 ET): The Cougars are off a very embarrassing loss here as they were 16-point favorites at home against a 3-17 South Florida team (that was down to just SEVEN players) Saturday, but fell 71-62.  As head-scratching a result as that may seem to be, it's easy to finger the reason, which was leading scorer Rob Gray, Jr. (who didn't start, more on that in a bit) finishing the game w/ only ONE point on an 0 for 6 shooting night. Also, despite being at home, the Cougars somehow attempted less free throws than USF made! It's time for Kelvin Sampson (remember him?) to put down the phone because its desperation time w/ his team having lost four straight. Fortunately, I think UH is a great value tonight at home vs. Tulsa.

It was not a good week for Gray, who not only was a healthy scratch in team's 77-73 loss at SMU last Tuesday, but then didn't start and scored just the one point vs. USF. HC Sampson has not been clear on why Gray was punished, but right, wrong or otherwise, his absence definitely hurt his team. Consider that Gray doesn't just lead his own team in scoring, he leads the entire American Conference at 16.6 PPG!  There's been no indication that there will be any more discipline moving forward, so I'm expecting Gray to start tonight. In addition to his not starting, and the free throw discrepancy, I can also chalk up the Cougars' loss to USF as a bit of a letdown spot following the near upset of SMU. Also remember that this team was a perfect 10-0 SU at home (now 10-2) before losing to UConn ten days ago.

If trying to snap a four-game losing streak wasn't enough motivation for Sampson's team, tonight is also a triple revenge spot for them.  Tulsa was a perfect 3 for 3 against Houston last season, including a 59-51 win in the conference tournament. The Golden Hurricane blow in on a five-game SU/ATS win streak, but they've essentially been beating up on the bottom of the league, which is quite weak.  While Houston's offensive numbers are set to improve, Tulsa is just as likely to regress defensively after allowing only 58 PPG (on 38.0% shooting) during the current win streak, setting up a "perfect storm" of sorts for the home team. 10* Houston

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  On the road, I see Denver having little chance of keeping pace in this one.  We know that the Celtics are a better team than their record shows as their +3.9 per game point differential is third best in the East and sixth best in the entire league. They've begun to "put it together" lately w/ three straight wins and covers to improve to a strong 6-2 SU/ATS their last eight.  Many of their wins this season have come in blowout fashion (15 by double digits!) and the last two have been no different as they clobbered Philadelphia and Washington on the road by a combined 35-point margin. Here they face a Denver team that is off a 14-point home loss to Atlanta and only 3-15 SU its last 18 visits to Beantown. Lay the points.

Due to weather, Boston's game with Philadelphia was pushed back to Sunday and not surprisingly they still handled the woeful 76ers, winning 112-92 as eight-point road chalk. Forced into an unscheduled back to back, Brad Stevens' team showed no ill-effects the following night in D.C. as they dismantled the Wizards, 116-91 as 2.5-point dogs.  Scoring has been on the rise for the Celtics, who have averaged 113.7 points per game their last seven contests. That works out great now that they're facing the defensively inept Nuggets, who over their last five games have allowed an average of 111.6 points. I'm a little shocked that Boston is only 12-10 SU at home, but this is a team w/ many close losses on its resume, so that record is set to improve.

Meanwhile, I struggle to find any evidence to support a positive outlook for Denver moving forward. They had actually covered six of seven before falling 119-105 at home to Atlanta on Monday, and what was remarkable is that six of those seven games were decided by three points or less (the other by just six). I'd say it's "high time" for the Nuggets to get blown out, something that really hasn't happened since a pair of double digits losses (to San Antonio and OKC) right after X-Mas.  Consider they lost by 14 at home (trailed by as many as 22) last time out despite going 33 of 37 from the free throw line. It's unlikely that the officials will be "so kind" to them again here. 8* Boston

10* Over Maple Leafs/Lightning (7:05 ET):  I was pretty certain that Tampa Bay wouldn't be "down for long" and slowly, but surely, we've started to see LY's Eastern Conference Champs climb back up the Atlantic Division standings. They're not totally safe, however, as fourth place does not assure you of a playoff spot. But having won 8 of 10, they now have 56 points, just two behind second place Detroit. As you might have guessed, offense has keyed the turnaround w/ the club averaging 3.6 goals per game over its last five. My only concern though is that they did allow five goals their last time out and lost to Florida. The last time TB played Toronto, nine total goals were scored, so Over is the play here.

The Maple Leafs, coincidentally, also just gave up five goals in a loss to Florida. That loss occurred last night and was the team's eighth in the last nine games, not to mention third straight. Over the course of this month, we've started to see a little bit of the "Maple Leafs from last year" as in a team giving up a lot of shots on goal. There have been five times in the last 11 games where they've allowed at least 39 shots, which is not good, especially when getting set to face a team like Tampa Bay, who had 37 against them in the last meeting. For the year, the Leafs are giving up the fourth most shot attempts per game in the entire league. Goaltending, save for a disastrous 7-0 loss to San Jose, has been surprisingly strong in January. But I have little confidence here in Jonathan Bernier (.899 save percentage), who was the one between the pipes for that massacre at the hands of the Sharks.

Now, we will need to see some improvement from Toronto offensively, or at least on the power play where they've gone 0 for their last 23! Overall, the team has scored only 11 goals in its last nine games, which is downright unacceptable. But they do a relatively good job at getting the puck on net (30.8 shots/game) and Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop (usually very solid) was flat-out off his last time out, giving up four goals in just two periods. He may not be quite that bad again, but Toronto's offense is due to pick up and I wouldn't be surprised to see them break though if they get a man advantage. (Tampa Bay is only 16th in penalty killing). Expect plenty of goals here. 10* Over Maple Leafs/Lightning

10* Arkansas (7:00 ET):  Here we are again with yet another opportunity to unload on a team taking points at home vs. a ranked opponent. The Top 25 does a great disservice to the public, who simply sees a number next to one team and automatically assumes they are significantly better. In taking advantage of that misconception multiple times recently, I've talked about how the difference between the 15th and 40th best team in the country is not all that significant, particularly after factoring in home court advantage. That doesn't necessarily apply here, however, as instead we're dealing with a #5 ranked Texas A&M squad that has probably reached its apex. They are ripe to be picked off here by a desperate Arkansas team looking to snap a three-game losing skid. Take the points.

The Razorbacks are now only 9-10 straight up for the year, but two of their three straight losses have been by a combined five points and both were on the road. The last one (76-73 at Georgia) came in overtime and saw the Hogs shoot just 39.3% from the field. That's well below their season average of 46.4 percent and as you like to see w/ any underdog, this one shoots well from three-point range (47% at home!). Here in Fayetteville, the team still averages 88.3 PPG even after a loss to rapidly improving Kentucky last week. That loss was just the fifth for Arkansas in its last 30 SEC home games.

Texas A&M jumped five spots in the polls this week as several teams ahead of them lost. Give credit where it's due, the Aggies are still perfect in SEC play and have won 10 in a row overall. But Arkansas is more likely to be the motivated side in this one, not just because they're at home and playing a Top 5 opponent, but also due to the fact that this is a revenge spot for an ugly 23-point loss in College Station earlier this month. On the road, things have been much tighter for A&M, however. In particular, wins at Mississippi State and Tennessee came by a total of just five points. Defense bailed them out Saturday vs. Missouri as center Tyler Davis sat out. I don't think they can count on that kind of performance being enough here though and a big Top 15 showdown vs. Iowa State this weekend serves as a lookahead.  10* Arkansas

10* Portland (10:05 ET):  Predictably, the line has jumped here as Sacramento is off a tough, 2OT loss to Charlotte last night at home. I had anticipate the line doing that, so please note this play remains valid as the Blazers should win big here. It's tough to imagine the Kings having much left in the tank after Boogie Cousins gave them 56 points in the 129-128 loss Monday that saw them blow all of a 15-point first quarter advantage by midway through the third quarter. Making matters all the more difficult for tonight is that Rudy Gay will have to sit out due to a scratched cornea. Short-handed and likely gassed, I just don't see any way the defensively deficient Kings can keep pace here. Lay the number.

Yes, defense continues to be an issue for Sacramento as they are giving up 107.7 points per game (most in the league) overall and 108.8 PPG on the road. There was some improvement during a 5-0 SU/ATS run heading into last night, but then they allowed the Hornets to connect on 20 three-pointers and produce a 42-point quarter!  In the second of back to backs this season, the team is just 2-9 straight up and allowing 110 points per game. In the five times they've had to go from home to away w/o rest (1-4 SU/2-3 ATS), they're allowing 115 PPG. Simply put, the linesmakers just aren't being kind enough to them considering they face a Portland team that averages 104.8 PPG here at home.

Furthermore, the Blazers are well rested (last played Saturday) and are 6-1 SU/ATS this season when playing with exactly two days off. In a result that should not surprise you, they whipped the Lakers their last time out, 121-103 as 11.5-poiunt home favorites. It was the Blazers fifth win in the last seven games (did lose to Philadelphia!).  This is now a great opportunity for them to overtake the Kings for the coveted 8th spot in the Western Conference. I realize there's still a lot of basketball to be played this regular season, but listen to Portland PG Damian Lillard, "They're in the spot that we want to be in. It's a huge game, tomorrow doesn't decide anything but it's another great opportunity for us on our home court and we're going to go out there and play like it." The Blazers have already beaten the Kings once this year, in Sacramento. 10* Portland

10* Over Predators/Canucks (10:05 ET):  For host Vancouver, this is the final game before the All-Star Break, so they might be looking ahead to the time off. For visiting Nashville, this is the front end of a back to back as they'll play in Calgary tomorrow night. Interestingly, each of the Preds' last three games have all resulted in identical 4-1 finals, the last two in their favor. The Canucks have also scored four goals in B2B games, although they lost the last one, 5-4 to Pittsburgh. I think that we should be in for a high-scoring affair tonight in Western Canada, especially when I look at the shocking number of shots that Vancouver has allowed over its last five games. Nashville, by the way, allows 3.1 goals per game on the road.  Take the Over.

The Canucks are simply not a very good team right now and even though they're at home, we find them coming off a long road trip w/ the All-Star Break looming. Thus, a "playoff-like intensity" should not be expected this evening and I think that could lead to a lot scoring on both sides.  Also, as I just mentioned above, the number of shots this team has been allowing is shocking. They allowed 40 or more in four consecutive games to start their road trip, including a mind-numbing 97 in B2B games in New York. Thus, they 60 they allowed the L2 games seems rather "tame" by comparison.  But, it's still a bad number and with Ryan Miller between the pipes, trouble could be on the horizon. Miller has 3.42 goals against average his last eight starts and due to injury, this will be his first time starting on home ice since early December.

Nashville, surprisingly, ranks among the league leaders (6th) in shots per game (31.1). So I expect them to get their fair share of scoring opportunities in this one based on the issues with Vancouver that I just ran through. But might the Preds be prone to give up more than a few goals themselves?  Pekka Rinne has turned in B2B strong outings in goal, but had a 3.43 GAA his five starts prior.  This is a team w/ an overall save percentage below .900 on the road, which is obviously not good at all.  This will also be their seventh road game in the last 18 days, so the tank could be running on empty. 10* Over Predators/Canucks