10* Over Astros/A's (10:07 ET): This will be our top AL West total for August as we're going Over w/ a pair of teams that both scored nine runs yesterday. Oakland did so in a win over the Giants while Houston suffered a shocking 13-9 loss as -350 ML favorites in Chicago. The Astros' reputation has resulted in huge losses at the betting window recently as yday was the THIRD time in the L8 games that they lost as a favorite of -350 or higher on the money line, including a historic upset in Baltimore Sunday where they closed at -550! Houston has closed at -205 or higher in its last 11 games, so this is a team the oddsmakers fear and so should Oakland tonight. 

The A's hopes of winning the AL West went out the window a long time ago (they currently trail the Astros by 9.5 games), but the Wild Card is certainly within reach as they look to make the playoffs in B2B seasons. Wednesday's victory over the Giants was certainly a welcome sight, particularly the way that it was accomplished as the nine runs exceeded the number that they had scored the previous three games combined. But all of those games were also played on the road. 

Looking at the recent efforts of the two starting pitchers for tonight, you might think an Over call seems a bit crazy. Houston's Aaron Sanchez won't have an easier win the rest of his career than the one he got on Saturday as the team bludgeoned Baltimore 23-2. But Sanchez still has a 5.60 ERA and 1.601 WHIP for the year and both of those numbers go up on the road. Oakland's Michael Fiers has admittedly been outstanding this year (17 starts w/o a loss!), even moreso when he pitches at home, but the Astros have been a nemesis for him. Fiers hasn't beaten Houston since 2012 and he has a 5.29 ERA in six career starts against them. Three have come this year, all no decisions, as Fiers has allowed 10 runs and 17 hits in 16 IP. 10* Over Astros/A's

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): This is a matchup I've been waiting for some time now as it pairs one of MLB's most underrated teams against one of its most overrated. The former is Arizona, who despite losing yday, did manage to take two of three from Colorado. Maybe I shouldn't be surprised considering how the D'backs have performed on the road this season (better than at home!). Despite being just a game over .500 (61-60), Arizona has outscored its opponents this year by 74 runs. That's the second best run differential in the entire National League. In terms of actual vs. expected wins, they are baseball's biggest underachiever right now as that run differential is indicative of a 68-win team.

Meanwhile, the Giants' profile is just the opposite. They are only one game back of the D'backs (60-61) despite having been outscored by 60 runs over the course of the season! That's the 4th worst differential in the Senior Circuit w/ only the three last place teams worse off. So while the gap in the standings might only be a single game, run differential says the D'backs are actually 14 games better than the Giants! I'm really surprised that they are not higher on the money line for tonight, especially after an overnight pitching change by the visitors. 

San Francisco is a team I was fading regularly earlier this month and it's time to go back to that. Instead of Jeff Samardzija going for them tonight, it will be Dereck Rodriguez, who was recalled from Triple A. That's quite the severe downgrade as Rodriguez has not performed well at the big league level this season w/ a 5.14 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 10 starts. His last outing saw him allow seven runs in just three innings. While the numbers indicate Arizona does play better on the road, they still are outscoring opponents here at Chase Field for the season. They were three outs away from sweeping the Rockies yday and I like what I've seen so far from Thursday's starter Alex Young, particularly a 0.812 WHIP at home. 10* Arizona

8* British Columbia (8:30 ET): I successfully played on (BC) and against (Winnipeg) these teams last week and will keep those respective reads for Week 10. We all know that British Columbia has been struggling this year as last week's 35-34 loss to Hamilton dropped them to 1-7 SU on the year. But it was a game effort by the Lions as they came up just one point as big underdogs. I can see a similar story unfolding this week as Winnipeg is coming off a hard-fought 26-24 win over Calgary last week, one in which they failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. I had the Stampeders plus the points in that one and will take the big number this week w/ B.C. 

Like I just said, it was a game effort from the Leos LW. The actually outgained the Ti-Cats 437-355. The problem was being -3 in turnovers and that's why they blew a 34-19 lead. Giving up a long punt return late led to the game-winning score for Hamilton in the final minute. In the first half, they allowed a kickoff to be returned for a touchdown. Despite the tough loss, expect the Lions to come out roaring this week. QB Mike Reilly has his 4th 300+ yard game of the year against the Ti-Cats. WR Bryan Burnham had 149 yards and two touchdowns. 

Burnham had 156 yards - on five catches - in the Week 1 meeting against Winnipeg. RB Andrew Harris went for 148 yds over land. The interesting thing about that opening week matchup is that the Blue Bombers closed as a pick em. They're now large favorites for the rematch, laying double digits at home. But after failing to cover three in a row and a tough division win over their nearest rival, this is a tough spot to be laying so many points. The Bombers haven't had a bye since Week 2. BC just had theirs two weeks ago and will come out desperate for a win here. 8* British Columbia

8* Over Jets/Falcons (7:30 ET): Don't laugh, but I have the Jets as the AFC's most improved team for 2019. Now they obviously have only one way to go (up!) after a miserable 4-win season last year. But they have a new HC in Adam Gase and if that name sounds familiar, well, it's because Gase previously coached for division rival Miami. QB Sam Darnold should "make the leap" in year #2 and the offense also welcomes in RB Le'Veon Bell. The defense will be very good. Most of my key metrics say the Jets will improve this year. They had a bad turnover margin (-10) and were 1-5 SU in one-score games. They lost the preseason opener to the Giants, 31-22. 

Atlanta just doesn't seem to care very much about the preseason. Last week's 34-27 loss down in Miami marked the Falcons' 10th straight loss in the preseason. Of course, I played against them in the Hall of Fame Game, which they lost 14-10 to Denver and failed to cover. The positive news from week to week is that the offense scored a lot more points. Having two games already under their belt should be a huge benefit to Atlanta's offense this week. Last week, QB Matt Schaub directed a 90-yard TD drive to open the game. This week, Matt Ryan is expected to make his debut. 

I don't have a great read on the Falcons for this season. While the offense did improve from the first to second week, the defense also played much worse (allowed three 60+ yd TD drives) and gave up a lot more points. This week will be the first time the Falcons have played at home this year. Darnold led a TD drive in his only series last week. But like Atlanta, the Jets defense (lots of backups) really struggled last week, giving up 414 total yards. Expect plent of points to be scored in this one. 8* Over Jets/Falcons

10* Under Jaguars/Eagles (7:00 ET): In last week's analysis, I said we were high on the Eagles for the upcoming regular season, predicting that they would win the NFC East. One week later, I still feel that way, even though the team did lose its preseason opener 27-10 to Tennessee. In the grand scheme of things, that loss is probably irrelevant, however Philly did lose backup QB Nate Sudfeld (broken wrist). This is notable due to Nick Foles no longer being around. Carson Wentz sat last week, but may actually be pressed into duty here due to the Sudfeld injury. Take the Under. 

Foles left Philly for Jacksonville of course and the Jags happen to be the Eagles' Week 2 opponent. Don't expect to see Foles Thursday night though; he's actually already been ruled OUT for this game. You won't see many of Jacksonville's other starters either. In the opener, Jags HC Doug Marrone sat 32 players, including 21 of the 22 starters. The end result was ugly as the team got shutout 29-0 by Baltimore, a team that usually tries in the preseason. The Jags offense gained only eight first downs and 112 total yards. I do look for this team to improve in 2019, but Marrone simply isn't looking to play his starters much in the preseason. 

The only other QBs on the Eagles' roster are Cody Kessler and Clayton Thorson. I had the Over LW in the Philly-Tennessee game, but that barely cashed w/ Kessler going 10 of 18 for 177 yds. It's the Under this week as HC Doug Pederson won't be playing his starters much here either. These two offenses (again, including Sudfeld) combined for only 10 points last week. One thing to note in the Jaguars' loss is that they allowed a defensive TD. So their own defense played better than the final score indicates. Both teams' backups on the defensive side of the ball should play hard here while we'll see little star power on the offensive side of the ball here. 10* Under Jaguars/Eagles 

10* Washington (4:05 ET): So far, this series has been a nice bounce back for the Nationals after they dropped two of three to the surging Mets this past weekend. Today they look to finish off a three-game sweep of the Reds and this looks to be an extraordinarily low price on Stephen Strasburg pitching at home. Yes, he'll be opposed by Trevor Bauer, but Bauer has been up and down all season. While he shined against the Cubs his last time out, Bauer was less than stellar in his Reds debut. Strasburg leads the NL in wins (w/ 14) and has a superb 0.986 WHIP at home. I'm calling for the Nats to finish off the sweep. 

Strasburg was rocked on 8.3 in Arizona, but bounced back w/ a quality effort against the Mets his last time out. The team still lost, 7-6, but don't blame Strasburg for that as he gave up only three runs in 7 IP. It was the Nats' bullpen that was responsible for the loss as Sean Doolittle allowed four runs in the bottom of the ninth. Strasburg isn't the only player on the team that enjoys games here in the Nation's Capital. The Nats are 26-13 their L39 here in the Beltway. They've also won six of eight overall. 

I fully expect Washington to be a playoff team. Can't say the same for Cincinnati, though they actually own a similar YTD run differential. Part of the problem for the Reds is they simply don't score enough runs. They currently rank in the bottom third of runs scored in all of MLB and only three teams in the NL have scored less. On the road, their record is just 23-34. Bauer has not made it out of the fifth inning in either of his L2 road starts, giving up a total of 11 runs on 16 hits.. Cincy is just 3-16 vs. Washington since the start of the 2017 season. 10* Washington

8* Under Twins/Brewers (2:10 ET): The Twins are averaging 6.1 runs per game on the road this season. That always felt like an unsustainable number to me, but the Yankees actually average more (6.5 rpg). Still, even though we're halfway through August, I expect that number to come down for Minnesota. On that note, the Twins have lost all of an 11.5 game advantage over the Indians in the American League Central. They had actually fallen out of first place (for the 1st time since late April) before winning yday 7-5 here in Milwaukee. This is a NL park and thus I expect less scoring today. Take the Under.

Milwaukee is another team seemingly headed in the wrong direction. They are third in the NL Central, but still very much alive in both the division and Wild Card race. However, run differential says they are pretty lucky to be in this position as they've been outscored by 22 runs over the course of the season. Last night was a blown save opportunity for the Brew Crew, the 5th this season from alleged closer Josh Hader, who has now given up eight home runs in the 8th inning or later. That's the most by any pitcher since 1961! Much of the scoring in last night's game was done in the later innings as the Brewers scored four runs to take the lead in the bottom of the seventh only to then allow three in the top of the eighth. 

Today's starting pitching matchup featured a change on the Milwaukee side as they'll now go w/ Gio Gonzalez instead of Drew Pomeranz. That's a net positive as Gonzalez has a 3.20 ERA in 10 starts this year and a 0.831 WHIP in the four at home. He's allowed no more than 3 ER in 9 of the 10. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson was having a breakout season in the 1st half before "cooling off" the last month or so. But he still can claim a 11-5 team start record. The Under is 5-2-1 the last eight times Gibson has started on 5+ days rest. Look for him to bounce back after a rough outing against Cleveland over the weekend. 8* Under Twins/Brewers

8* Under Rangers/Blue Jays (12:37 ET): A couple of American League also-rans wrap up a three-game series on Wednesday and the home team will be going for a sweep. After putting a season-high 19 runs on the board Monday, Toronto shut Texas out 3-0 last night. I see this game being closer to last night, in terms of final score, as the Rangers simply aren't hitting right now. They've scored a grand total of 14 runs in eight games on this road trip, getting held to two runs or fewer six times. Collectively, they've hit below .165 on the trip. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays happen to have the lowest home batting average in all of baseball (.225). Take the Under. 

For awhile, Texas was one of the bigger surprise teams this year. They were 50-42 after opening the 2nd half w/ a pair of wins over Houston. Since that time, they've gone just 9-18. They've lost six of the last seven games and are now resigned to playing out the string. That's evident by them starting Kolby Allard today. Allard made his first start of 2019 last Friday and this will be just the third big league start of his career. While Allard and the Rangers lost in Milwaukee last Friday, 5-2, he allowed only two runs on three hits and had finished w/ seven strikeouts. Toronto has a much weaker lineup than Milwaukee does. 

Toronto has basically been a disappointment all year, but it's not like they were expected to contend in the AL East. While they are 21 games below .500 right now, run differential says they've played to the level of a 57-win team, which isn't that far off from the Rangers. In fact, only Cincinnati and Arizona have underachieved more in terms of actual vs expected wins. Sean Reid-Foley gets the nod Wednesday and he has a 1.29 ERA his L3 times out. He just held the Yankees to one run in five innings on Friday as the Blue Jays pulled off an upset as +130 underdogs. 8* Under Rangers/Blue Jays

6* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals took advantage of a weak opponent over the weekend, sweeping the Pirates at Busch Stadium. Now they get another in the renewal of the I-70 series w/ Kansas City. Earlier in the year (back in May), these teams split a pair of games (doubleheader) in St. Louis. But there's no disputing who the better team is here as the Cards have won five straight times here. Something I haven't seen discussed at all is how the National League is on the verge of snapping a 14-year losing streak to the American League in Interleague Play. They are currently 158-142 in IL play in '19. St. Louis has always been one of the better teams in IL play as they have the highest all-time win percentage among NL teams. They win big Tuesday. 

Heading into tonight, the Cardinals are two games back of the Cubs in the NL Central. But the Cubs are in the midst of a 10-game road trip right now and we know how inferior they are away from Wrigley. So the Cardinals need to continue to take advantage of these weak teams on the schedule. Truthfully, the Redbirds aren't exactly a powerhouse away from home either. But they are a perfect 4-0 the L3 seasons when priced at -175 or higher on the road. The Royals are just 22-35 at home this season.

We also have a massive starting pitching mismatch on our hands for this game. The Cardinals go w/ Jack Flaherty, who has been "lights out" of late w/ a 0.94 ERA his L6 starts. He's allowed just four runs in 38 1/3 IP. Despite this, Flaherty is only 1-1 during this stretch w/ a 3-3 TSR. So he's due for a win. Can't say the same for Kansas City's Glenn Sparkman though. He's been downright brutal over his L3 starts, posting a 10.56 ERA and 1.956 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed more runs in 4 2/3 innings than Flaherty has allowed in those last 38+ IP. The Cardinals also get Yadier Molina back in the lineup tonight. 6* St. Louis

8* Under Red Sox/Indians (7:10 ET): I've had my "finger on the pulse" of Red Sox totals the last two days, cashing the Under vs. the Angels on Sunday (despite the game going to extra innings!) and then the Over here in Cleveland last night. Unfortunately for Boston, both games resulted in losses for them. They now are 8.5 games back of the Wild Card, so there's a very good shot they won't even get into the playoffs after winning the World Series a year ago. Cleveland is streaking as they're now 43-17 the L60 games and have passed the Twins in the AL Central. I'm sticking w/ the total though tonight and going back to playing Boston Under the total. 

It was a fast start for the hitters last night as the game was 5-3 (in Cleveland's favor) by the end of the 4th inning. Boston then rallied, scoring a run in the seventh and ninth to tie it up. Once the game was tied 5-5, I was guaranteed a win w/ the Over at 10.5. Unfortunately, the Red Sox had no such guarantee and for the second day in a row Cleveland won on a Carlos Santana home run. Tonight's starting pitching matchup should guarantee fewer runs being scored early and that's a big reason why I'm moving to the Under. Chris Sale and Mike Clevinger simply aren't going to give up a lot of runs. 

Sale is having what is perceived as a "down year" and it's hard to argue w/ that given a 9-15 TSR. But his WHIP is 1.088, which tells me that he's pitched better than most realize. Last time out, he threw eight shutout innings of two-hit ball w/ 13 strikeouts. Unfortunately for Boston, they'll be facing Mike Clevinger, who has won six straight decisions and has a 0.92 ERA at home, the second lowest home ERA in all of baseball. In his L7 starts overall, Clevinger has a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. This will be a good ol' fashioned pitchers' duel. 8* Under Red Sox/Indians 

10* Detroit (7:10 ET): I have to admit that it seems strange to have such a strong feeling about a team like the Tigers, who have the fewest number of wins in MLB (35) and the 2nd worst run differential (-228). But an early line move definitely "caught my eye" here as that's pretty rare for the Tigers. They also have revenge for a prior sweep where they dropped all four games in Seattle. That series just took place at the end of July. Now it's time for Detroit to exact a little revenge. They have their best pitcher going Tuesday. Seattle is 19-35 on the road and has lost eight of nine overall. 

The Mariners did start the season 13-2. But I basically called them a fraud and all but guaranteed they would regress. That is exactly what has happened. They're just 35-69 overall since and now in last place in the AL West at 48-71 w/ a -117 run differential. This is one of the few teams that can be a very winnable matchup for the Tigers. Starting Tuesday for Seattle will be Yusei Kikuchi. He has a 5.34 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 24 starts. Those numbers get slightly worse on the road. His last road starts saw him give up six runs in just four innings. 

Boyd can be hot and cold, but he's also pitching for a bad team and that's the primary reason why he has an 8-16 TSR. He did give up five runs in only 2 2/3 IP his last start, but the team actually still got the win, 10-8 over Kansas City. He was coming off three straight starts where he'd allowed two runs or less. He did face Seattle in the last series and gave up just one run on three hits in 6 1/3 IP. His numbers are better at home. The Mariners have not scored more than four runs in any of their last eight games and have been held to two runs or fewer in half of those. Twice they've been shut out. 10* Detroit

analysis soon

10* Under Pirates/Angels (10:07 ET): Talk about two struggling teams. The Pirates have lost eight in a row as well as 24 of 28 since the All-Star Break. You can't say I didn't warn you as all season the Bucs have had a poor run differential, indicating that they are one of the weaker teams the National League has to offer. It was months ago that I guaranteed they would finish last in the NL Central and that prediction looks like it will come true as they have fallen well behind the rest of the pack. They've been outscored by 100 runs this year after Sunday's 11-9 loss to the Cardinals (where they blew an 8-4 lead).

The Angels did win both Saturday & Sunday, beating the Red Sox 12-4 and 5-4. The latter came in extra innings yday, a game which I still cashed the Under. As I pointed out in the analysis, that 12-run effort was largely a byproduct of a sloppy inning by the opposition and was highly unlikely to repeat itself. They actually finished that game w/ more runs than hits, which isn't easy to do. They rallied yday for the 5-4 win, but still are just 4-12 their L16 games overall and finished the road trip at 2-7. The Under is a perfect 4-0 the L4 times the Angels have returned home after a road trip of at least seven days. 

This will be Pittsburgh's first venture in Anaheim since 2013. They've decided to recall Mitch Keller to start Monday's game after he spent the last two months down in Triple-A Indianapolis. Keller did start three big league games earlier in the year and they didn't go very well, but I think he'll do better here as the Angels are batting a collective .189 their L7 games. The Angels counter w/ Jose Suarez, who is coming off B2B losses, including a bad outing in Cincinnati his last time out. But this is a weaker NL lineup that he'll be facing this go around and Pittsburgh is averaging just 3.3 rpg its last seven contests. The Under is 10-4-1 the L15 times the Pirates have been off a game where they gave up 5+ runs. 10* Under Pirates/Angels

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): I've previously called the D'backs "underrated" and they are, as evident by their +67 run differential, which is third best in the entire National League. But the bottom line is they only have a .500 record on the season after losing to the Dodgers 9-3 yday. As for the Rockies, they're finally back home now after a terrible road trip which saw them go 1-5 overall. But they did win yday - 8-3 over San Diego - and have some major revenge here after being swept down in Arizona last month. Before that, they'd previously beaten the D'backs seven straight times, sweeping them twice in a row. There's no place like Coors Field for the Rocks and they win this series opener. 

At some point, I won't have to point out Colorado's home vs. road splits anymore. But they are as dramatic as ever in 2019 w/ the Rockies averaging 6.5 runs per game at home as opposed to just 4.2 on the road. Conversely, they also give up a lot more runs here in Coors. But I really like this lineup's chances against Arizona starter Merrill Kelly, who has a 10.68 ERA and 1.814 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have been team losses. Kelly has faced the Rockies twice this season and lost both times, giving up 10 total runs in 12 2/3 IP. 

Peter Lambert has had some similar struggles of late for the Rockies. Both of Monday's starters have 1-8 TSR's their last nine outings! So something is going to have to give Monday. Lambert does have a slight edge in that Arizona has never faced him while Colorado is already familiar w/ Kelly. The Rockies did win the last time Lambert started at home, beating San Francisco 5-4. Lambert has been the better pitcher (compared to Kelly) most of the year. Arizona has lost five straight here in Denver. 10* Colorado

8* Over Red Sox/Indians (7:10 ET): This is a very critical series for Boston, who is currently 7.5 games out of the Wild Card in the American League. Cleveland currently occupies one of those two WC spots, but they are also now tied w/ the Twins atop the AL Central after taking three of four in Minnesota over the weekend. Winning the division is out of the question for the Red Sox, who are 16 games back of the first place Yankees in the East. Really, if they were to lose this series, it would be difficult to like Boston's chances of getting back to the playoffs as they would be facing an even larger deficit while having to jump two teams (Oakland, Tampa Bay). 

Everything went right for the Red Sox last year en route to winning their 4th World Series in 15 seasons. But 2019 has proven to be more challenging. The starting rotation has been really lousy. The bullpen has been no better as Sunday marked their 22nd blown save, tied for the most in all of baseball. They lost 5-4 to the Angels, a game in which I had the Under and it still cashed despite going 10 innings. You might look at Monday starter Eduardo Rodriguez's 17-6 TSR and think he's the man to right the ship. But Rodriguez has a 4.19 ERA and 1.315 WHIP. The Over is also 17-6 in those 23 starts, including 11-2 on the road. He's walked 31 batters in his last 61 IP. 

The last time these teams met was back in May and all three games in the series went Over. The fewest number of total runs scored in any game was 12. Of coure, a lot has changed since May. After losing to the Angels both Saturday & Sunday, Boston is just 3-11 their L14 games. Meanwhile, Cleveland is humming along w/ a 42-17 record their L59 games. The Indians go w/ Zach Plesac here. He has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts and is coming off arguably his sharpest effort to date. But Boston does average 5.7 runs per game (3rd most in MLB) and will be a greater challenge than Texas was. The Over is 4-0 for Plesac the L4 times he's been off a quality start. 8* Over Red Sox/Indians

10* Under D'backs/Dodgers (4:05 ET): Hyun-Jin Ryu is back in the Dodgers' rotation here and that's certainly not good news for an Arizona lineup that was blanked yesterday (had only three hits) and is already 0-2 against Ryu this season. To say Ryu is having a great year would be quite the understatement. He's gone 11-2 in 21 starts (16-5 TSR) w/ a 1.66 ERA and 0.943 WHIP. He's been even more unhittable at home where his TSR is a perfect 10-0 w/ a 0.89 ERA and 0.792 WHIP. It was just one missed start for Ryu and I see no reason why he won't resume his dominant ways on Sunday. 

Last night's game was the 13th shutout win of the year for the Dodgers. They are clearly the best team in the National League this season w/ a 78-41 record to go along w/ a +186 run differential. That run differential is the best in baseball, a byproduct of them having allowed the fewest number of runs. Ryu has obviously been a big part of that. Something else to note here is Friday's game went 11 innings and was a 3-2 final. So neither team has done much scoring in this series and that should continue here w/ a third straight Under. 

Mike Leake will oppose Ryu this afternoon. This will be Leake's third start since coming over from Seattle. He has definitely "scattered" plenty of hits in the first two (21 in 11 IP), but has gotten away w/ allowing just eight runs, only six of them earned. Leake has definitely been very good at times this season. While he may seemingly be "up against it" today, I still expect him to pitch well in this spot. Seven of the Dodgers' last eight games have stayed Under and six of those have seen them score no more than four runs themselves. Hopefully, we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth here (Dodgers are big ML favorites), which would obviously be a big "assist" in cashing this bet. 10* Under D'backs/Dodgers

8* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Twins were able to stop the bleeding w/ a 4-1 win over the Indians last night, thereby reclaiming first place in the AL Central for themselves. This is a division that they've led going back to late April. At one point, they were up by as many as 11.5 games on the Indians and the advantage was 7.5 games coming out of the All-Star Break. But that advantage is basically now gone w/ Cleveland having gone 41-17 their L58 games, which is MLB's best record during that stretch. The four-game losing streak that the Twins snapped yday was a season-worst. They still have a run differential that's much better than Cleveland though and look to have the edge in starting pitching Sunday. I'll call for the Twins to eke out a split of this critical series. 

The Twins' breakout season began with them hosting the Indians in the very first series. Jose Berrios started Opening Day and pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings of two-hit ball, striking out 10 in the process. He's subsequently faced the Tribe two more times, both in Cleveland. It was another quality start on June 6th as he again allowed only two hits, this time over six innings (did allow a run). After losing to Berrios twice, the third time was finally the charm for the Indians on July 14th. However, it should be noted that Berrios allowed only three runs in that 4-3 loss. He's off his worst start of the year here, but I have him bouncing back in a major way. 

Cleveland certainly had its chances at the plate last night, but went 1 for 12 w/ RISP and left 10 men on base. This team did a tremendous job in pulling even w/ Minnesota going into yday, but that was a "tall hill to climb" and you have to wonder if they'll now be able to get over the proverbial "hump." It's Aaron Civale starting Sunday, just his third start of the year. The first two have gone well w/ Civale allowing only one run in 12 IP (13 K's). But both starts came at home and were against Detroit and Texas. Let's see how he does vs. the Twins, who are #3 in all of MLB in runs scored. 8* Minnesota

8* Under Angels/Red Sox (1:05 ET): It's been an exchange of blowouts the last two days in Boston with the host Red Sox winning Friday's game 16-4 before going down 12-4 last night. Thursday's opener was alot lower scoring though with the Red Sox winning 3-0. The Angels had lost eight in a row before finally breaking through w/ a win Saturday. Boston's starting pitching has not been good in August (to say the least!), but they did hold the Halos to just four total runs in the first two games of the series. Last night, LA rode one breakout inning, scoring seven times in the 7th. That obviously is unlikely to happen again. They'll revert back today and Boston won't score much either. Take the Under.

While they scored 12 runs last night, the Angels only finished w/ 11 hits. That fateful 7th innings saw them get four men on base who didn't even get a hit (2 walks, 2 HBP). Additionally, there was sloppy play by Boston in the field w/ a passed ball and throwing error. Andrew Cashner is certainly hoping for better play behind him today and you have to figure he will get it. Cashner needs it too as truthfully he hasn't been very good since coming over from Baltimore. His L2 outings were real rough, but I see improvement on the horizon.

Patrick Sandoval is making his second career start here for the Angels. He was quite effective in his big league debut, going five innings and allowing only two runs on three hits. He finished w/ eight strikeouts. While the Red Sox did score 16 times in the win Friday, that was one of just two times in August they've scored more than four runs in a game. The Angels had not beaten the Red Sox since 2017 prior to yday and had been held to two runs or fewer in six of the eight losses. 8* Under Angels/Red Sox 

8* San Francisco (9:00 ET): The degree to which they'll improve can be debated, but you should certainly expect the 49ers to be a better team in 2019. Oddsmakers are certainly "on board" w/ that line of thinking, posting an 8-win total for a team that won only 4 games a season ago. If you go back to this time last year, the Niners were actually a pretty trendy pick to improve. They were coming off a strong second half of 2017 w/ Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. But Garoppolo was never really healthy and the team suffered badly. It also didn't help that they were a league-worst -25 in turnover differential. Trust me when I say virtually every sign is pointing "up" for San Francisco heading into this season.

Dallas had its own breakout in the second half of last season and ended up winning the NFC East and a playoff game over Seattle. They were 7-2 after acquiring WR Amari Cooper, but were also a lucky team in that they were 8-2 SU in games decided by seven points or less, six of those wins coming after getting Cooper. Also note that they only outscored opponents by 15 pts all of last season. I expect the Cowboys to regress (in terms of wins) in 2019. Whether or not you agree w/ me on that, you certainly have to agree that HC Jason Garrett has never been good in the preseason as his SU record is a lousy 12-21. That includes 0-4 last year. 

While Garoppolo's health may rightly be a concern for 49ers' fans (he won't play at all here), they should rest at ease a little bit thanks to the fact that backup Nick Mullens has put up nearly identical numbers in the same number of games started. Mullens will start this game. There were some injury scares this week on the defensive side of the ball this week w/ Nick Bosa and Jason Varrett both getting hurt. Both are out for the preseason, but neither was going to play much here anyway. Look for San Francisco to make a statement at home in the preseason opener. 8* San Francisco

6* San Diego (8:40 ET): I rode the Padres to an easy 7-1 victory last night and they're even larger ML favorites today. There were two key factors that made San Diego an attractive bet Friday and those were Colorado's offensive decline on the road and the starting pitching matchup. Well, the Rockies definitely didn't show much at the plate last night and the starting pitching matchup for Saturday seems even more heavily slanted in favor of the Padres. As discussed in yday's analysis, while the Rockies average 6.5 rpg at home (#1 in MLB), they drop to 4.2 rpg on the road (28th!). Back the Padres yet again Saturday.

It will be Chris Paddack starting today for the home team. Though he was roughed up in his last start (for six runs), that was against the Dodgers, who are the best team in baseball for my money. Prior to that, Paddack had given up 3 ER or less in seven consecutive outings. He has a 3.19 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 19 starts overall this season. He's been even more dominant at Petco Park w/ a 2.28 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in eight starts. The Padres have gone 6-2 in those eight games as well. In this his rookie season, Paddack has yet to face Colorado. But for the reasons outlined above, getting them in San Diego for the 1st time is a huge advantage.

The Rockies are in pretty bad shape right now as they've lost four straight while giving up 41 runs in the process. San Diego is no offensive juggernaut, yet they've scored 16 runs in two games. Starting for Colorado tonight will be Chi Chi Gonzalez. Whereas opposing hitters are batting just .191 vs. Paddack, they are batting .289 vs. Gonzalez. This will be just the 5th start for Gonzalez this year. He has a 1.729 WHIP. His ERA on the road is 6.75. Furthermore, the Rockies have lost all of his previous four starts. This is a mismatch. 6* San Diego

10* Under Rams/Raiders (8:00 ET): Once upon a time, both of these teams left LA for "greener pastures." The Rams chose to return to the City of Angels and who says "you can't go back home again." Last year, the team found itself in the Super Bowl where they lost to the Patriots 13-3. As frustrating a defeat as that was, the Rams still appear to be in good shape heading into 2019, though I don't think they're going to win 13 games again. But they're still the envy of the Raiders, whose own return to Oakland has not played out the way they'd hoped these last two decades. Maybe Vegas, where they are set to move next year, will treat them better?

Speaking of returns, Jon Gruden made his to the Raiders' sideline last year, coming down from the Monday Night Football booth. It did not go particularly well. The team finished 4-12 after questionable personnel decisions, many of them directly coming from Gruden himself. Bringing in WR Antonio Brown, jettisoned from Pittsburgh, seems to offer some hope for the future. But don't expect the Raiders to make the playoffs in this final season out in Oakland. 

Gruden always seems to take the preseason more seriously than some of his contemporaries as his preseason record is 33-17 SU. We also know that these teams had a feisty practice during the week that saw Gabe Jackson (Raiders) and Aaron Donald (Rams) get into a pretty serious brawl. Shortly afterward (unrelated), Jackson was rolled up on from behind and he's done for two months. Brown is threatening never to play football again if his helmet isn't approved. Oh, the Raiders! The Rams' top offensive talent isn't likely to see the field much, if at all, Saturday. In two preseason road games last year, the Rams scored a total of seven points. They averaged just 11.7 PPG overall. The Raiders gave up only 13.5 PPG. Expect a low-scoring game. 10* Under Rams/Raiders

10* Under A's/White Sox (7:10 ET): After collecting 11 or more hits in five straight games, the White Sox were held to just four Friday afternoon & blanked by the A's, 7-0. I can't say that the offensive regression surprises me. This is a team that is ahead of only Detroit & Miami in runs scored this year. They'd scored 36 runs in those L5 games, winning four of them, but given what we've seen from this club all season you had to figure that wouldn't last. Sure enough it didn't and I feel they're set to be shut down at the plate again tonight. Take the Under. 

The A's are now a perfect 4-0 against the White Sox this season. For this weekend, they would like nothing more than to replicate the sweep they pulled off at home last month at the White Sox expense. They enter the day one-half game behind Tampa Bay for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. Chicago is obviously nowhere near playoff contention. Being only eight games below .500 may not sound all that bad, but the White Sox have been outscored by 116 runs over the course of the season. That's the 4th worst differential in the sport. 

One thing giving the White Sox a "fighting chance" here is that starter Reynaldo Lopez has looked good of late w/ a 2.56 ERA in his L5 starts. But I just can't see him getting much run support tonight. It was a successful A's debut for Tanner Roark last Sunday as he allowed just one run and four hits in 5 IP. Oakland won that game 4-2. Now it's start #2 in an A's uniform for Roark and he gets to face one of the weakest teams in the league. In four games against Oakland this season, Chicago has scored a grand total of only FIVE runs! 10* Under A's/White Sox

10* British Columbia (7:00 ET): It's been a rough start to the season in Western Canada, at least in B.C. where the beloved Lions are 1-6 and in last place. The Leos' lone victory this year came by one point, 18-17, on a last second rouge over a Toronto team that was winless all the way until last week. Five of the team's six losses have been by double digits and the last three have been by a total of 67 pts (including two 27-pt losses at home). My hope, obviously, is that the team is going to be a lot better off the bye. I think they will, so take the points against a wounded (literally & figuratively) Hamilton team. 

Contrary to what's going on in B.C., Hamilton's season got off to a wonderful start. The Ti-Cats were really humming along at 5-1 after beating previously unbeaten Winnipeg, 23-15, in Week 7. But disaster struck in that game w/ QB Jeremiah Masoli getting injured. Coming into the year, Masoli was easily the best QB in the East Division and that's why I (along w/ so many others) thought that they would breeze to a first place finish. They still are in first, but things have gotten closer after LW's 24-19 loss to Saskatchewan. The Ti-Cats simply are not the same w/o Masoli, so that's why I'm preaching to be wary of this double-digit spread here. 

I had the Under in LW's loss in Regina. While credit for Hamilton scoring only 19 pts could easily go to a Roughriders defense that previously held them to 17 pts in the opener, don't look past the change at QB. Dane Evans threw for just 129 yards last week, a far cry from what we're used to seeing from Masoli. Furthermore, the Hamilton offense has only managed 234.7 YPG the L3 weeks. With B.C. off its first bye of the year, I think they'll come out refreshed and easily cover this large spread. 10* British Columbia

10* Under Phillies/Giants (10:15 ET): Sorry Giants' fans, but to quote The Hives, "Hate to Say I Told You So!" Regression has started to take hold here, as I said it would for a variety of reasons. Chief among them was the team's extraordinarily fortunate records in one-run games and extra innings (some obvious overlap there), which couldn't be sustained. The Giants have dropped 7 of 10 overall and I expect the losses to continue to pile up from now until the end of the season. The good news is that they did shut the Phillies out last night, 5-0. I like tonight's game to stay Under as well. 

The Giants had Madison Bumgarner on the bump Thursday and he took a no-hit bid into the sixth inning. The Phillies ended up with just one hit for the entire game. The Giants won't have the luxury of having Bumgarner on the hill tonight, but a Phillies lineup that has produced only one run and 11 hits its last two games simply isn't going to do much damage anyway. Tyler Beede gets the start for SF here. While he's lost his last three starts, one of them to the Phillies 10 days ago, he's had some strong outings this year. Many of them have been here at home where his ERA is a respectable 3.80. Something else to consider is the Giants have not scored more than two runs in any of Beede's last four starts. 

The Giants don't score as much at home as they do on the road, which is odd, but they are not the only team doing that this season. The number of teams averaging fewer runs per game at home compared to the road is surprising, but the Giants take it to a new level, averaging only 3.3 rpg here at Oracle Park (average 5.2 rpg on the road!) Overall, they rank 27th in MLB in runs scored, 28th in batting average and 28th in OPS. That's enough to convince me that Phillies starter Drew Smyly is likely to pitch well in this spot just as he did when he faced the Giants 10 days ago (same game Beede started) and tossed seven shutout innings of four-hit ball. 10* Under Phillies/Giants

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): We all know what happens when you take the Rockies out of Coors Field. Scoring, both their own and from the opponent, drops precipitously. This year, the split has been even more striking than usual. Their own scoring drops from 6.5 runs per game to 4.2 while they allow 2.3 rpg less (7.0 to 4.7) on the road. But we're not playing the Under here as we have so many times previously w/ this Rockies club. Rather, this is a fade as they lost 9-3 to San Diego last night and it should be a similar story here w/ the starting pitching matchup heavily slanted to the Padres. 

Five unearned runs in the sixth inning largely provided the difference for San Diego last night as they scored at least nine runs for the third time in four games. That kind of offensive production is the last thing Colorado wants to hear right now, not just because of their own anemic offense on the road, but also due to who they are sending out to start this game. Kyle Freeland is having a truly miserable campaign w/ a 7.24 ER and 1.61 WHIP in 19 starts. Needless to say, he's unlikely to limit the scoring the way Rockies pitching usually does on the road. Rather, this should be somewhat reminiscent of what they allow at home. 

Freeland has a 2-6 TSR on the road this year. The team had lost his last four starts before beating San Francisco w/ him on the mound on Sunday. I actually took Freeland & the Rockies in that spot, but it was more of a fade against the Giants. In my opinion, Freeland just doesn't "stack up" against Padres' start Cal Quantrill, who has a 1.65 ERA and 1.041 WHIP his L3 starts. Quantrill started a wild 16-12 win over the Rockies at Coors Field in June, which was the last time he faced them. He allowed "only" four runs in that start, so don't be fooled by the final score. He'll pitch better tonight and with the Rockies having allowed a total of 34 runs the L3 games, it should be an easy win for the home team. 10* San Diego

8* Over Indians/Twins (8:10 ET): I whiffed on the total in this matchup last night (had Under), a rare misfire for me in a record-setting run. The last time the Indians and Twins met, all three games in the series did go Under. Furthermore, Cleveland had given up just nine runs in six games coming into this series. But perhaps I underestimated their offense, which scored seven runs for a third time in the last seven games. Most importantly of all (from Cleveland's perspective), last night's win pulled them within one game of the Twins, who once had an 11.5 game lead in the division they have led since April. I'm going Over on Friday night as the number of runs scored should be similar to last night. 

Something else that should be considered is that the Twins are #2 in all of MLB in runs scored, trailing only the Yankees. They couldn't do much against Mike Clevinger last night, but expect more success against Shane Bieber, who starts Friday's game for the Indians. Yes, Bieber has really impressive looking numbers and just tossed a complete game in his last outing. It was his second CG effort in his L3 starts. But might the innings log begin to catch up w/ him? Bottom line is Minnesota should score enough here to help send this one Over the total. The Over is 7-0 the L7 times the Twins have been off a loss. 

Devin Smeltzer has started three times for Minnesota this year and all three games have stayed Under the total. But there's a catch. After starting once in May and once in June, this will be his second start in August. And the one start in June was vs. Cleveland (opposite Bieber) and saw him allow five runs. Smeltzer allowed FOUR home runs, so he's lucky that he didn't give up more runs. Seven of the Twins' last nine games have gone Over and this is only the second time all season they've lost three in a row. They've allowed 30 runs during the losing streak! 8* Over Indians/Twins

8* Tampa Bay (7:30 ET): The Bucs enter the 2019 season w/ a new head coach (Bruce Arians) and hopefully a new "lease on life." They still have some issues though, namely the same old QB (Jameis Winston) and a defense that gave up a frightening number of yards last season. But I think this team will enter the year somewhat underrated. They really weren't as bad as last year's 5-11 SU record indicates, considering they actually outgained opponents on a per play basis. What really hurt was losing six of the nine games decided by 7 pts or less and a -18 turnover margin. Arians will have them "ready to go" for this preseason opener and I'm taking the points.

Pittsburgh is also going to be better than a lot of people expect this year. Yes, they lost both RB Leveon Bell and WR Antonio Brown. But the former didn't play at all last season anyway and the latter's production can be offset by Ju Ju Smith-Schuster. Last year's nine-win season seemed like the "floor" for the Steelers, who were certainly more "unlucky" than bad. They too lost a lot of close games (5) and had a bad turnover margin (-11). I don't think they'll be as motivated as the Bucs tonight though. This is a team more focused on the regular season. 

Looking at the backup QB situation, Tampa Bay has Blaine Gabbert, Nick Fitzgerald and Ryan Griffin. Not exactly a "murderer's row," but the player to watch is going to RB Ronald Jones, who is having a tremendous camp. Out of USC, Jones had a disappointing rookie season last year. But he seems like he's going to "break out" in 2019. Arians used to be the OC in Pittsburgh, so that only adds to his motivation here. He's been saying the right things all week and 1st year head coaches have treated us well so far in the preseason. Pittsburgh's backup QB rotation of Mason Rudolph, Joshua Dobbs and Devlin Hodges does not scare us. 8* Tampa Bay 

10* Arizona (10:00 ET): The Cardinals have a first year coach in Kliff Kingsbury, who certainly seemed to "fail his way up" after being fired at Texas Tech. Kingsbury will have a rookie QB in Kyler Murray (#1 overall DC), the former Heisman Trophy winner, who replaces another 1st round DC (from just last year!) in Josh Rosen (traded to Miami). Not much is expected this year from Arizona, but I believe they have the potential to be at least a little bit better than LY's disastrous 3-13 SU finish. Playing the 1st preseason game at home, with a new HC, they'll certainly be more motivated than the Chargers, so lay the short number. 

Coming off a playoff appearance, the Chargers know "who they are" heading into 2019. Well, with one possible exception. RB Melvin Gordon is holding out and that could last into the regular season. Gordon was unlikely to play here anyway, same for QB Philip Rivers. Under HC Anthony Lynn, LA is 3-5 ATS in the preseason and has lost both years in Week 1. Another position of concern for the Bolts heading into the year is left tackle where anchor Russel Okung is out due to blood clots. Taking most of the snaps at QB will be the trio of Tyrod Taylor, Cardale Jones and rookie Easton Stick. 

When we backed Denver in the Hall of Fame Game, it was made clear that 1st year HC's are something we target. These preseason games often come down to motivation and we saw the Broncos play down to the wire, scoring a late TD for the win. At home, Kingsbury should be especially motivated to win. Getting the fanbase on your side is a must. Murray is scheduled for 10-12 snaps hopefully while Brett Hundley (who we last saw filling in for an injured Aaron Rodgers in 2017) will play backup. 10* Arizona

8* Calgary (8:30 ET): QB Bo Levi Mitchell (injured since Week 3) was eligible to return for this game, but just to illustrate how well things have gone w/ backup Nick Arbuckle in there, the Stampeders have elected to push back Mitchell's return at least one more week. Since losing in Week 1 to Ottawa (blew double digit lead), the Stamps have won five of six (only loss by 7 at Hamilton) to catch Winnipeg in the Western Division. The Blue Bombers started the season 5-0, but have subsequently dropped B2B games at a most inopportune time. Too many points here. Take Calgary as a dog.

After a 2-2 start, it seemed as if many were quick to write Calgary off. But their defense is playing as well as any in the league right now, giving up an average of just over 16 PPG during a three-game win streak. Arbuckle is doing an outstanding job here as well. Last week, he completed 19 of 28 passes for 189 yards in a 24-18 win over rival Edmonton. Honestly, that was one of Arbuckle's weaker efforts. He has two 350+ yard games under his belt. It's pretty rare to see the Stampeders as an underdog, certainly of this magnitude. Earlier this year, they pulled one outright upset on the road, beating Saskatchewan 37-10 as 5-point pups. 

Much will be made of Winnipeg's motivation in this one coming off the terrible loss to Toronto last week. Plus, this is a rematch of LY's Western Final, which was won by the Stampeders 22-14 as five-point favorites. The Bombers seem to be the only team in the league that hasn't suffered an injury at QB and pivot Matt Nichols was playing like a MVP in leading the team to a 5-0 start. But he had an "off week" last week, throwing for a season-low 169 yds as the Bombers blew a 20-pt first half lead to lose by one, 28-27, in the closing seconds. The week before they lost to a Hamilton team that lost starter Jeremiah Masoli to injury. Calgary is catching Winnipeg at an opportune time and may not even need the points! 8* Calgary

10* Under Indians/Twins (8:10 ET): This is a high-stakes series between the only two teams that matter in the American League Central. The Twins currently lead the Indians, as they have all season, but the lead is down to two games. Cleveland has gotten back into this race mainly by taking advantage of the three bad teams in this division. By sweeping yday's doubleheader from Texas, they are now 38-16 since June 4th (best record in baseball during that time). All three games in the last series between these teams (7/12 - 7/14) stayed Under and this one should too. Take the Under. 

Indians' pitching gave up just one run in two games yday, continuing an incredible stretch on the runs allowed side of the ledger. In the last six games, the last five of which have stayed Under, the Tribe has allowed just nine runs total! Mike Clevinger gets the baseball tonight and he comes in w/ a 2.21 ERA his L3 starts. Since the start of July, Clevinger has pitched six times and all six times he's allowed 3 ER or less. In fact, he's allowed just 7 runs total in 37 1/3 IP. He's also 3-0 w/ a 1.80 ERA in his L3 road starts. He has a 2.91 ERA in 11 career games vs. Minnesota. Count on Clevinger to pitch well here.

The Twins actually score more on the road than they do at home, something you can't say about many teams. They are in off a disappointing series w/ Atlanta, which took place right here at Target Field. In losing each of the L2 days, the Twins pitching staff allowed a total of 23 runs. That's more than Cleveland has allowed in its last NINE games. Kyle Gibson toes the rubber tonight. He has a 1.094 WHIP at home this season, which is encouraging. Don't discount the effect that playing two (games) may have on the Indians' hitters coming into tonight. It's not like the Tribe is scoring much of late. In the three games vs. Texas, they scored all of seven times. 10* Under Indians/Twins

10* Over Titans/Eagles (7:30 ET): We believe that when the regular season is complete, these two teams will be on opposite ends of the spectrum. But we don't need to get into why just yet. Thursday sees the Titans and Eagles opening preseason play and what immediately caught our eye is this total is a bit higher than the rest on tonight's slate. While the first week of preseason often finds teams simply "working out the kinks," this game figures to see more scoring than you might anticipate. Take the Over. 

The Eagles are two years removed from winning the Super Bowl. Last year saw them barely make the playoffs, though they did upset the Bears in the Wild Card Round. I greatly favor them to win the NFC East this year. Other than New England over in the AFC East, I don't think there's a safer divisional call. Carson Wentz is now the undisputed signal-caller in Philly, as he should be, with Nick Foles off to Jacksonville. I know Foles won several playoff games (including the Super Bowl!), but he's never appeared in more than 13 regular season games in his career and actually turned it over 12 times in 7 games LY. Bottom line is that he's a good backup. Wentz is a former MVP.

Tennessee may have a very real QB competition on its hands for the starting gig with Ryan Tannehill challenging incumbent Marcus Mariota. The latter always seems to be hurt and is due a new contract after this season. Of course, Tannehill is hardly an inspiring choice. But look for the two to "push" each other this preseason. Clayton Thorson, a rookie from Northwestern, will get most of the reps in Week 1. For Philadelphia, it will be a mix of Cody Kessler and Logan Woods. Both teams are deep at receiver. 10* Over Titans/Eagles 

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): I used the Diamondbacks yday and they poured it on late en route to an 8-4 victory over the Phillies. The analysis made it pretty clear how I view these two teams. Though they have similar records (Phillies actually better), I believe Arizona is the far better team. While only .500 for the year, they have outscored their opponents by 71 runs, which is now the SECOND best differential in the entire National League! Meanwhile, the Phils have actually been outscored by 21 runs over the course of the year despite being 59-54. Stick w/ the D'backs tonight!

Most teams struggle on the road, but Philadelphia has been downright atrocious when priced in the +125 to +175 range (ML) outside of Citizens Bank Park. They're just 3-12 this season and 26-52 the L3 seasons. Arizona actually has a better record on the road than at home, but they have outscored their opponents for the season here at Chase Field. This game is huge for the D'backs as a win would pull them within 1.5 games of the Phillies (who currently occupy the 2nd Wild Card spot). 

Tonight's starting pitching matchup features a couple hurlers that were acquired at the trade deadline. Jason Vargas made his Phillies' debut last week and looked good, but the end result was still a loss to a bad White Sox team. Vargas has had problems w/ Arizona in the past, posting a 6.82 ERA in six career starts and it's been a decade since he beat them. Vargas has also struggled on the road this year w/ a 5.03 ERA. The D'backs are going w/ Zac Gallen, who was a fantastic pickup from Miami and could potentially replace the departed Zack Greinke as the ace of the rotation. In seven starts this year, Gallen has a 2.73 ERA and the last three have seen him post a 1.40 ERA and 0.879 WHIP. This is no surprise considering how he dominated the Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) w/ a 9-1 record and 1.77 ERA in 14 starts. Moving from a bad Miami team to Arizona will make all the difference for Gallen, in terms of wins and losses. 10* Arizona

8* Under Royals/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Back on Monday, we took the Over in the opener of this three-game set. It pushed as the Red Sox won 7-5. Thus, you may be surprised to see us backing the Under tonight in light of the starting pitching matchup. But Tuesday's game, a 6-2 Royals' win, stayed Under. Boston seemingly can't get out of its own way right now as they've lost 9 of 10 and scored no more than five runs in any of those nine losses. Kansas City isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut as they are batting a collective .219 their L7 games while scoring just 3.7 rpg. Take the Under. 

Glenn Sparkman, the Royals starter for this evening, hardly seems like an ideal candidate for an Under. He's struggled not only of late, but all season on the road. His first start after the All-Star Break did show what he's capable of though as he tossed a complete game five-hitter. He's struggled ever since, but Boston simply isn't hitting right now. Earlier in the season, when the Red Sox were playing much better, Sparkman actually pitched great against them. He allowed just one run and three hits in 5 1/3 IP. The Royals ended up losing 8-3, but I don't see them giving up that many runs this time. 

Red Sox starting pitching has been terrible in this 1-9 stretch, but Eduardo Rodriguez continues to be the one reliable option they have in the rotation. Rodriguez has a 17-6 team start record, including 9-1 here at Fenway Park. He comes off a couple challenging outings against the Yankees, but it's a huge drop in class when facing the Royals. Prior to the B2B starts vs. the Yanks, Rodriguez allowed 2 ER or less in five consecutive starts. He started opposite Sparkman earlier in this season and gave up just two runs in 5 2/3 IP. Look for this to be a relatively low-scoring game. 8* Under Royals/Red Sox

10* Under Yankees/Orioles (7:05 ET): Predictably, the Yankees have come to Baltimore and taken the first two games of this three-game series. They've scored nine runs in both games and now won seven in a row overall. Baltimore is having a truly miserable season as they are 38-75 w/ a -198 run differential. They're just 17-40 at home where they give up a horrifying 6.7 runs per game. No team has allowed more runs to be scored on them this season. But the O's best pitcher, John Means, returns tonight and that should keep the Yankees' scoring down. Take the Under.  

Means was roughed up on 7.13 by Tampa Bay, giving up six runs in his first start after the All-Star Break. But other than that, he's been outstanding in 2019. That's the only start since the start of May where Means allowed more than three runs. He has a 2.67 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 10 home starts, so he's been the exception to the "rule" when it comes to the number of runs the Orioles have allowed here at Camden Yards this season. He has spent the last two weeks on the DL w/ a bicep injury, but should be fine tonight. He has a 1.59 ERA in three previous appearances vs. NY. 

The Yankees have hit 11 HR's in the first two games of this series, but Means usually does a good job at limiting the long ball. As for Baltimore scoring runs, don't expect many. James Paxton is probably considered a disappointment by Yankees' fans, but he just delivered a quality start against Boston last weekend, allowing two runs on six hits. The Red Sox are the third highest scoring team in baseball. Paxton is 3-1 w/ a 3.86 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Orioles, which includes his first two starts of 2019. 10* Under Yankees/Orioles

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): When they dealt Zack Greinke to the Astros last week, the conventional wisdom was that the D'backs were throwing in the towel on the 2019 season. I don't know if I agree with that. While a 7-3 loss to the Phillies last night dropped them to a game below .500, they are by no means "out of it" when it comes to a wide-open Wild Card race in the National League. One positive thing they have going for them is a +67 run differential, which tells me they've played MUCH better than their record. In fact, in terms of actual vs. expected wins, they've underachieved the most at -7 games. Look for them to bounce back Tuesday night at home and beat the Phillies. 

While Arizona has underachieved this season, Philadelphia ought to feel pretty good about their 59-53 record. They've actually been outscored by 17 runs over the course of the season! But they are where a lot of NL teams would like to be right now and that's tied for a WC spot. Still, there are eight teams in the NL w/ better run differentials, Arizona obviously among them. In fact, the D'backs' YTD run differential ranks third best in the Senior Circuit, trailing only the Dodgers and Cubs! Arizona is 5-2 off its last 7 losses while Philly is 1-4 off its previous five wins. 

Last night, the starting pitching matchup was NOT in Arizona's favor, but it looks to be today. Mike Leake is making his D'backs debut here after coming over from Seattle in a trade last week. Leake posted a 2.91 ERA and 0.969 WHIP his L3 starts for the Mariners, which includes a complete game one-hitter. He should pitch better here in the National League and certainly better than Merrill Kelly did yday. Meanwhile, the Phillies got seven very strong innings from Vince Velasquez last night, but Tuesday starter Jake Arrieta hasn't gone that long in a start since Memorial Day. He has a 5.25 ERA and 1.611 WHIP his L7 starts overall. 10* Arizona

8* Under White Sox/Tigers (1:10 ET): These are two of the absolute worst teams in baseball and Tuesday they'll be "treating" us to a day/night doubleheader. Monday saw the White Sox prevail 7-4 here at Comerica Park. While the Tigers are now 32-76 w/ a -213 run differential (both worst in the league), don't be shy about selling the White Sox down the stretch. Though a more "reasonable" 49-61 on the year, they've actually been outscored by 114 runs, meaning they've eclipsed their expected win total by six games (they have roughly the same run diff as 40-74 Kansas City for a frame of reference). With these being two of the three lowest-scoring teams in MLB, Under seems like an easy call for Game 1 today. 

The Tigers are abysmal. There's really no other way to say it. Yesterday was their fourth loss in a row (scored 4 runs in every game) and they are 4-19 since the Break. No team has scored fewer runs this year and they average only 3.2 per game here at home. If there is a positive for them, at least for this 1st game, it's that Daniel Norris will be on the mound. He's looked good recently w/ a 1.76 ERA his L3 starts. During that time, Norris has given up just three runs in 15 1/3 IP. He has a reasonable 3.96 ERA in eight career games vs. Chicago. The Under is 7-1-1 his last nine home starts. 

White Sox starter Dylan Cease hasn't been as good as Norris recently, but at least he's backed by a bullpen that has been pretty sharp. Cease did go seven innings his last time out, which was the longest of his five starts so far. The last three have all stayed Under and two of the last four have seen Chicago get shutout. Even though the White Sox have scored 17 runs the past two games, they are still averaging less than 2.0 per game over the L8 contests while collectively batting barely over .200. Cease made his big league debut against the Tigers on July 3rd and gave up three runs in 5 IP. He'll likely pitch better this second go-around. 8* Under White Sox/Tigers 

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): With a 16.5 game lead, the Dodgers are all but assured of winning the NL West again. They are also seven full games ahead of the rest of the National League, meaning the playoffs will very likely be going through Chavez Ravine. But don't think for a second that Dodger Blue will be lacking for motivation down the stretch. They proved that Sunday by coming from behind to defeat the Padres 11-10. They're now 43-15 at home this year. Motivation shouldn't be lacking on Monday either as they welcome in St. Louis for a three-game set. The Cardinals previously swept them, but that was back in April and in St. Louis. As we saw yet again over the weekend, the Cards simply aren't the same team on the road.

The Redbirds were beaten in both games out in Oakland over the weekend and that dropped them from 1st place in the NL Central. I can't really say that they were worthy of that 1st place distinction either; they have a +19 run differential compared to the Cubs' +76. The somewhat telling home vs. road splits St. Louis experiences are perhaps best exemplified by the starting rotation as virtually all of the pitchers see their numbers go up outside of Busch Stadium. Monday starter Michael Wacha simply isn't that good to begin with as he has a 5.05 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in all 14 of his starts this year. He's been working out of the bullpen for the last month and lasted started a game on 7.4. He started against LA earlier in the year and didn't last long (3 2/3 innings) as he gave up seven runs. 

The Dodgers have a really strong rotation, but it will be an unfamiliar name going here in rookie Tony Gonsolin, who starts in place of Hyun-Jin Ryu (who was placed on the DL). Gonsolin's only previous start this year came on 6.26 vs. Arizona. Admittedly, it didn't go all that well w/ him allowing six runs. But he did recently throw at the big league level (as in last week) and held Colorado to one run in four innings and that was at Coors Field. As we saw yday, Gonsolin should get plenty of run support here. The Dodgers got to Wacha when they faced him in April, only to still lose 11-7. It'll be a different story this time around. 8* LA Dodgers 

10* Over Royals/Red Sox (7:10 ET): What a disastrous week it was for the Red Sox as they lost every game and now find themselves 6.5 games back of the Rays, not to mention 14.5 behind the Yankees. Those two division foes were the teams responsible for every loss during Boston's current slide, which hit eight straight after a 7-4 loss to the Yanks last night. Fortunately, this week sets up a little easier, certainly at first as the Sox welcome lowly Kansas City to town. The Royals have lost six in row themselves, so "something's gotta give" here. I believe we're going to see plenty of runs scored tonight. Take the Over. 

During their eight-game slide, Boston has surrendered 58 runs or an average of more than 7.0 per game. With Rick Porcello on the mound tonight, that average isn't likely to dip. Porcello has been terrible of late w/ an 8.10 ERA and 1.74 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have gone Over the total. His last one saw him give up six runs, in just 5 2/3 IP, and three home runs. It was the fifth time in his last seven starts that Porcello allowed five or more earned runs. He's allowed 10 HR's during that time and has a 9.35 ERA/1.875 WHIP! At least Boston has the third highest scoring offense in MLB at 5.7 rpg.

That brings us to Kansas City, who has given up 45 runs during its losing streak of six games. That's an average of 7.5 rpg and they've got Mike Montgomery going tonight, which doesn't seem like it will help those numbers. Montgomery has made only three starts so far and has a 7.94 ERA and 1.765 WHIP. The Red Sox swept the Royals in the only previous series between the teams this year, scoring 23 runs in the three games. With two bad pitchers and one of the top offenses in the game, Over is an easy call here. 10* Over Royals/Red Sox 

8* Over Brewers/Pirates (7:05 ET): As I suspected might be the case, Jordan Lyles took advantage of a new "lease on life" in his first start for the Brewers. Just days after being traded away from Pittsburgh, Lyles allowed just one runs and three hits and got the win in his Milwaukee debut, 4-2 in Oakland. However, we shouldn't forget that was Lyles' best performance in ages. His Pirates' tenure ended w/ him going 0-6 over his final eight starts (0-8 TSR) and he still has a 9.34 ERA and 2.153 WHIP his L7 starts overall. He'll face his former team tonight and I expect it to be a high-scoring game. Take the Over.

While there's no doubt that Lyles struggled w/ the Pirates, being on a bad team certainly didn't help. As I predicted would happen, the Pirates have been in a free-fall. Since the All-Star Break, they've lost 18 of 22 games and they were just soundly beaten on Sunday, 13-2 by the Mets. Throughout the season, the Over has always been a safe bet w/ the Bucs as it's gone 63-42-6 in all games, including 6-1 the L7. That's the 3rd highest Over rate in the league this season. One positive for Pittsburgh going into this one is they've had plenty of success against their former teammate (Lyles) in the past. In 13 career appearances, some of them coming w/ Milwaukee in a previous stint, Lyles is 1-5 w/ a 6.99 ERA against the Pirates.

Of course, the Brew Crew are slumping right now too as they just got swept by the Cubs over the weekend. A big problem for them has been lack of offense as they have scored just 14 runs in the last six games. On Saturday & Sunday, they went 1 for 12 w/ RISP. But the good news is this still a strong lineup, one that should bounce back against Pirates starter' Dario Agrazal, who has given up 5 HR in his past two starts. Pittsburgh has given up a ton of runs per game (5.9!) all season here at PNC Park and that doesn't figure to change anytime soon. 8* Over Brewers/Pirates 

10* Under Cardinals/A's (4:07 ET): Though being contested at an American League Park, which means both teams get to use a DH, I see Sunday's game between the Cardinals and A's staying Under the total.  Oakland is now 3-0 vs. St. Louis this year after an emphatic 8-3 win last night. That loss hurt the Cards more than usual as it dropped them out of first place in the NL Central. Oakland is also fighting for a playoff spot over in the American League, though they're likely confined to a Wild Card opportunity as they now trail Houston by 8.5 games. If the regular season ended today, the Athletics would be one of the AL's two WC teams. Take the Under. 

St. Louis was shutout for the first five innings yday. What's interesting about that is they'd been shutout Wednesday by the Cubs (2-0) before posting a shutout of their own (8-0) on Thursday. So for awhile there, it appeared as if we might be headed for a third straight shutout involving the Cards. They managed to score three times in the final four innings though, but still there's been only one time in the last six games that they've scored more than three runs total. Oakland typically does a good job at limiting its opponents from scoring here at home where it allows only 3.9 runs per game. 

On paper, it would appear as if both of today's starting pitchers are struggling lately. But in the case of Adam Wainwright, it was just one bad outing in Cincinnati. He's allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his eight starts since the start of June otherwise. Last time out, he held the Cubs to just one run. Three previous starts vs. Oakland have resulted in a 1.14 ERA for Wainwright. Tanner Roark will be making his A's debut here, but he's no stranger to facing St. Louis as he comes over from Cincinnati. Roark has started twice against the Cardinals in 2019 and he's allowed just three runs in 10 1/3 IP.  10* Under Cardinals/A's

10* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Giants won yday and of course it was by just a run (6-5). Since July 18th, all but one of the team's nine victories have come by that exact margin. At least they didn't win in extra innings Saturday, a scenario which has seen them go an extraordinarily fortunate 7-0 since the Break. If it sounds like I'm being bitter, yes I did have the Rockies last night, but it goes beyond that. San Francisco is a total fraud as they are a game over .500 this year despite being outscored by 51 runs. I'll gladly fade them again Sunday just as I have four of the last five days (won the first three times).

It's very surprising to see that Colorado has scored just five runs in each of the first two games of this series. After all, they lead all of MLB in runs per game at home (as per usual) w/ 6.5. They dug an early hole last night, falling behind 4-0 in the first inning, but were able to climb out and eventually take a 5-4 lead going into eighth. That's when the Giants' Buster Posey struck w/ a pinch-hit, 2-run double to give his team the lead and eventual win. The Giants have won 5 of their last 6 in Coors Field, but again I remain highly skeptical as going by YTD run differential, they are the biggest overachievers when it comes to win expectancy in the entire National League. 

The Giants won't have Madison Bumgarner on the bump today. Rather, it will be Tyler Beede, who has a 5.57 ERA and 1.571 WHIP on the road this season. Coors Field is obviously the toughest place to pitch in all of baseball (high altitude) and this will be Beede's first time ever starting a game here. The Rockies go w/ Kyle Freeland, who has struggled this year after a tremendous 2018. But he's always pitched well against the Giants w/ a 3.09 ERA in 10 starts. I've made my feelings about San Francisco well-known and am not about to come off that position. 10* Colorado

7* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): Look for the Rays to finish off the quick two-game sweep here and make it six (wins) in a row overall. Honestly, I've been a bit surprised to see TB continue to win at their current percentage. Key for them was sweeping the Red Sox earlier in the week, in Boston. Yesterday's win allowed them to stay one-half game ahead of Oakland, who is also hosting a short two-game interleague set this week. Of course, we know the Rays are better than the Marlins. Their Floridian rivals are clearly the worst team over in the National League w/ a .389 win percentage, -102 run differential and they are the lowest scoring team on the Senior Circuit as well. 

Tampa won yday's game w/ some offense, prevailing 8-6. They homered four times. Miami simply isn't built to win games like that as they are averaging only 3.5 runs per game on the road. Meanwhile, the Rays are holding visitors to an average of only 3.9 rpg here at home. So yday should be considered a "missed opportunity" for the Marlins. Don't expect Rays pitching today to be so generous. Starting will be Yonny Chirnos. While he's off a rough outing in Toronto, Chirnos' still has really solid numbers for the season and should bounce back here.

Not known for their offense, the Rays have scored a total of 50 runs in their L6 games. That's bad news for Miami starter Caleb Smith, who often struggles on the road. Contrast his 2.28 ERA and 0.972 WHIP at home w/ a 4.17 ERA and 1.027 WHIP on the road. Smith did finish July w/ a 5-0 team start record, all but one a quality start. But he's up against a really strong opponent here. The Rays are now 3-0 vs. the Marlins in 2019 and 9-4 in all interleague contests. They've won 22 of the last 32 times they've been a home favorite of more than -175 on the moneyline. 7* Tampa Bay

8* Under Angels/Indians (1:10 ET): This series has seen the Indians maintain their mastery over the Angels here at Progressive Field. The teams' last 15 meetings here in Cleveland have seen the home team win 14 times, including 7-3 and 7-2 the last two days. I'm banking on today's game being a little lower scoring as we've got two pretty good starters on the mound and it's not as if the Indians are some kind of offensive juggernaut. They are however #2 in fewest runs allowed in the entire American League (and #3 overall in MLB). Take the Under. 

The Tribe will go w/ Shane Bieber on Sunday. Last time out, Bieber lost for the first time in a month, but don't put the blame on his shoulders. He allowed only two runs in seven innings vs. Houston, but it was a hard-luck final of 2-0. His start prior to that was a complete game, one-hit shutout in Toronto. Bieber has allowed 3 ER or fewer in eight of his last nine starts overall, going at least six innings on seven different occasions. For the season, he has a 0.998 WHIP, which is third best in the American League. He's also top 10 in ERA. All but five of his 20 starts this season have stayed Under the total. 

The Angels counter w/ Jaime Barria, who should keep his team in this one. Barria has started five times this year and the Under is a perfect 5-0! He's gone exactly five innings every time out and last time surrendered only three runs (one unearned) and four hits. I concede that Cleveland has been on a real offensive surge lately, but consider some of the competition. The Under is 37-17-1 in the Indians' last 55 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Being that the home team is such a big favorite on the ML here, the hope is we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth. 8* Under Angels/Indians

10* Colorado (8:10 ET): The Giants got a taste of their own medicine last night, losing a one-run game here in Colorado, 5-4. For the Rockies, it was sweet revenge as they'd previously been swept by San Francisco here at Coors Field, last month. Now why did I call it a "taste of their own medicine" for the Giants, you ask? Well this is a team that has completely overachieved by going a MLB-best 26-11 in one-run games this year (very lucky!), including 8-2 since the All-Star Break. They've also somehow managed to go 7-0 in extra inning games since the Break. Anyone who's been privy to my analysis lately should know which way I'm going Saturday. Take the Rockies.

With Madison Bumgarner on the hill Saturday, most are not going to want to fade the Giants. But I have no hesitation fading a team that has been outscored by 52 runs this season, which is the third worst differential in the entire National League! Thus, it's almost improbable that the team has managed a .500 record to this point. At previous points in the season, there have been several other teams (Tigers, White Sox, Pirates) that I've decided to start fading regularly when their won-loss record and run differential don't "jive." The Giants are just the latest on the list. In terms of actual vs. expected wins, the latter based on run differential, SF is tied (w/ the White Sox) for being the biggest overachiever in all of MLB. 

Bumgarner was supposed to start Friday, but got pushed back a day. That definitely helped the Rockies last night as "MadBum" has a 3-0 TSR against them this season. But this is a team that averages 6.5 runs per game at home and two of those three losses came on the road. They counter w/ Jon Gray in this spot & he's got a 7-3 TSR this season at Coors w/ surprisingly good numbers given the nature of the park. Last time out, Gray went eight innings against the Dodgers and allowed just one run on three hits. Just a tremendous performance. He's allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his past eight starts. 10* Colorado 

8* Under Tigers/Rangers (8:05 ET): These teams have now played four times this season and Texas has won all four. That can't really be considered a surprise given the overall ineptitude of Detroit, who now has the worst overall record in baseball at 32-73 and has been outscored by 204 runs! Nor is it a surprise that all four Tigers-Rangers matchups this year have stayed Under the total. After all, Detroit also happens to be the lowest scoring team in all of baseball. I look for that Under streak to continue Saturday as Detroit will have its best starting pitcher on the mound as well. 

Rangers' home games typically are high scoring as they both average and allow 5.6 runs per game here in Arlington. Starter Adrian Sampson has really struggled of late, but there's a catch - his last four outings have all been on the road. While Rangers' home games might typically be higher scoring than other places, Sampson pitches better here at Globe Life Park. He has a 3.37 ERA and 1.30 WHIP here, which are both well down from his numbers on the road. The last time Sampson pitched at home, he gave up only one run in seven innings. Facing the lowest scoring team in MLB definitely helps his case tonight. 

One of the few bright spots in this horrendous season for Detroit has been Matthew Boyd. He's off a really strong showing in Seattle where he allowed just one run and three hits in 6 1/3 innings. Of course, the Tigers still lost 3-2, but for our purposes here that is largely irrelevant. It was also the fourth time in the last six starts that Boyd finished w/ 10+ strikeouts. Unfortunately (for him) he is again unlikely to get much in the way of run support as last night marked just the third time in the last 10 games that the Tigers scored more than 2 runs! 8* Under Tigers/Rangers 

10* Under Edmonton/Calgary (7:00 ET): This year's first edition of the "Battle of Alberta" goes down Saturday night in Calgary with the Stampeders hosting the provincial rival Eskimos. The Stamps are not their usual dominant selves (at least so far) this season, but are 4-2 SU and will be getting QB Bo Levi Mitchell back (hopefully) in about two weeks. But for now they're still w/o their starting QB and you can see the effect as the team's last four games have all stayed Under. You can say the same for Edmonton as well. Look for a low-scoring game Saturday night. 

The last time we saw Edmonton was July 25th when we laid the points w/ them against Toronto. It was a double digit spread, but that hardly mattered in a 26-0 shutout. The Eskimos have now allowed just 26 points - total - the last three games. They are giving up the fewest points per game in the league at just 17.0. So the defense should get the job done here. While Calgary was also a winner last week - 17-16 over Ottawa in a Grey Cup rematch - they failed to get into the end zone. Fortunately for them, their defense has now allowed 16 pts or less in three of the last four games. 

Stampeders' backup QB Nick Arbuckle has done a pretty decent job filling in for the injured Mitchell, but this will also be his first "Battle of Alberta." Same for Edmonton starter Trevor Harris. In fact, this is the first Edmonton-Calgary matchup not to have Mitchell or Mike Reilly starting going all the way back to 2012! The Eskimos are 7-1-1 Under their last nine road games while the Under is 8-3 in Calgary's last 11 August games. Edmonton's scoring average drops to 21.3 points per game on the road. In terms of yards allowed, these are the top two defenses in the league. 10* Under Edmonton/Calgary

10* Under Blue Jays/Orioles (7:05 ET): This figured to be a favorable series for Toronto and so far it has been w/ them taking the first two games, 11-2 and 5-2. Baltimore pitching has been horrendous all season, so it's got to be disheartening to score only two runs as not many teams can win that way, but especially this one. We have what appears to be two struggling starters on the mound tonight, so it's rather surprising I would be on the Under, but I expect the O's scoring issues to continue while the Blue Jays aren't exactly a great offensive team either. 

Toronto has now won a season-best five in a row and six of their last seven. During this time, they've scored 7+ runs five times. They've homered seven times in this series so far, which has accounted for 11 of their 16 runs scored. Tonight, they face Dylan Bundy, whose 1-9 team start record at home definitely gives you pause. But Bundy pitched well in his only previous start vs. the Jays this season, holding them to one run and three hits in 6 2/3 IP. Baltimore won the game 4-1, which was an easy Under. The Under is 11-4-2 in Bundy's last 17 starts overall. 

The Jays will go w/ Thomas Pannone, who is making just his fifth start of the year. Quite frankly, the previous four have not gone well, but he has faced Baltimore twice this year in a relief role and those did go well. He's kept them scoreless in five innings and the O's lineup he'll see tonight is about as weak as ever. Pannone is off his best effort (in the starter's role) to date as he held Kansas City to three runs and five hits in six innings. Look for him to build off that as Toronto pitching continues its mastery over Baltimore. The Under is 40-16-1 the L57 meetings between these AL East rivals. 10* Under Blue Jays/Orioles

7* Trevin Giles (2:35 ET): Giles has garnered much buzz for this fight, which takes place at 185 lbs and is set for three rounds. He's off a disappointing loss his last time out, the first of his career, to Zak Cummings. It was Giles' first fight in over a year as he decided to take 2018 off in order to become a police officer. Noble cause, but Giles definitely looked sluggish in his return to the Octagon as he was eventually stopped in the third round, losing by submission (guillotine choke). Lest we forget the 11-0 start to his pro career however and I'll call for a bounce back here. 

Gerald Meerschaert is a veteran of the fighting game as this will be his 40th pro fight! He enters w/ a 28-11 career record and it wasn't until his 34th fight that the UFC signed him. He's only 4-3 under the UFC banner and has dropped B2B fights, first losing to Jack Hermansson by submission in December of '18, then to Kevin Holland via split decision in March. Looking back through his resume, it becomes pretty obvious that Meerschaert struggles w/ "explosive" type fighters. Well, Giles happens to be pretty explosive.

No, Giles is not the greatest defensive fighter in the world. But that shouldn't matter here against a more plodding opponent that can't take advantage. I think Giles is going to be out to prove himself after tasting defeat for the 1st time and Meerschaert is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. 7* Trevin Giles

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): Oh, do I love this play. Let's start w/ what we've previously discussed about the Giants. Their 2nd half record of 14-6 is a complete fraud as they've gone a ridiculously fortunate 7-0 in extra inning games and 8-1 in games decided by one-run. While they are currently a game above .500, they've actually been outscored by 51 runs over the course of the season and that's the third worst differential in the entire National League! The Rockies have revenge here as they were swept by the Giants last month, right here in Coors Field. Not this time, folks. 

I played every game of the Giants last series, which was in Philadelphia. I won twice w/ the Phillies, once as my top play for July, and once w/ the Under (which was my 10* Total of the Month). The Giants did win that game where I had the Under, 5-1, but that was their first and only win in the last two weeks by more than a single run! The pitching change for the Giants here certainly works to our advantage as it will be Shaun Anderson going instead of Madison Bumgarner. Anderson has a 5.06 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in 14 starts this year and the numbers have only gotten worse since the All-Star Break. I shouldn't have to tell you that Coors Field is the toughest place to pitch in all of MLB. Anderson was rocked for five runs in just 4 1/3 innings here last month. 

But homefield advantage didn't matter the last time these teams met as the Rockies would go on to turn in a terrible month overall. They finished July at 6-19, pretty much ending their playoff hopes, but getting a measure of revenge in this series could keep them afloat. Starter Peter Lambert has an 0-7 TSR his L7 times out, but he's been better of late, reminiscint of the pitcher who opened his big league career w/ B2B wins over the Cubs. The Rockies should certainly supply Lambert w/ adequate support as they are averaging 6.5 rpg here at home this season. They had yesterday off while the Giants were in Philly, which is another advantage. 10* Colorado

10* Under Reds/Braves (7:20 ET): My condolences to anyone reading that had the Under in last night's Reds-Braves games. That looked like it would be a sure winner as the game was 4-1 in the 7th w/ several runs to spare (total was 9.5). Unfortunately, due to rain, the game was then called. As you know, that renders any O/U play as a "no action." The weather forecast in Atlanta looks a lot better Friday and thus I'm going to jump on the Under tonight based not only on what I saw last night, but also the kind of scores we're used to seeing from Cincinnati. Take the Under here. 

I expect the Braves to win again tonight and if so, that means the bottom of the ninth may not have to be played. That's always a nice luxury when playing the Under, but it's also one we may not need given the dearth of hitting from the Reds' lineup recently. Six of the last seven games have seen them held to four runs or fewer and they are already one of the NL's lower scoring teams. That's "music to the ears" of tonight's starter for Atlanta, Kevin Gausman, who has admittedly struggled lately. But his previous home start saw him allow just 1 run and 5 hits in 7 IP.

The Reds may not score much, but they don't give up a lot of runs either. In fact, the only NL team that's allowed fewer runs this season would be the Dodgers! Alex Wood is now back and part of the rotation after back spasms caused him to miss the first three months of the season. His first start came against Colorado and he allowed just two runs in 4 2/3 IP. The Reds won the game 3-2. This one should see a highly motivated Wood as he faces the team that drafted him. Three of the four meetings between these teams this season have seen six or fewer total runs scored. 10* Under Reds/Braves

8* Pittsburgh Run Line (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Pirates at +1.5. The Mets are a hot team right now and we backed them yesterday as they won for a seventh straight time, shutting out the White Sox 4-0. They'd previously swept Pittsburgh, who they're matched up again w/ this weekend. Last weekend's series was in Queens and while I've previously stated that recommendations on the Bucs will be "few and far between," I'm willing to take them at home here, with revenge and getting an additional run and a half. 

This seven-game win streak has the Mets within two games of .500 and certainly viable in what's going to be a wide-open Wild Card race in the National League. But let's not go too far w/ the praise. I backed them yday because they were matched up w/ one of the very worst teams in all of baseball. Pittsburgh is probably the NL's 2nd worst team right now (Miami is definitely worse), but they're generally tougher to beat here at PNC Park. It's been an ugly stretch in the Steel City, that's for sure, as the Bucs come into this series having dropped 16 of 19 games since the Break. But five of those losses were by one run, including one to the Mets last weekend. 

Admittedly, things don't look that great for the home team coming into this series. Not only have they been losing and are matched up w/ a hot team that just swept them, but they've got some suspensions to deal with as a result of the brawl w/ the Reds a few days ago. There is going to be a lot of pressure here on starter Trevor Williams, but he does have a 1.80 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Mets. He was a 3-0 loser to Steven Matz last Saturday and will oppose Matz again tonight. Matz went the distance in that game for his 1st CG shutout of 2019. But he has a 6.40 ERA and 1.654 WHIP on the road and won't be as effective this time around. 8* Pittsburgh Run Line (+1.5) 

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): For the third straight series, the Cubs are not only facing an opponent from within their own division (NL Central), but one they are also battling for playoff position. The Cubbies dropped two of three in each of the previous two series and I was "lukewarm" on them in both, even going against them in Tuesday's loss to St. Louis. The reason being is that they were on the road (where they are now just 21-33 for the season). But now they're back in Wrigley (where they're 36-18) and looking for revenge after dropping 2 of 3 in Milwaukee last weekend. This time, I back the Cubs in a series opener. 

While these teams are only a game apart in the standings and scored a nearly identical number of runs over the course of the year, those two metrics do not tell the full story here. The Cubs have ALLOWED 79 fewer runs this season than have the Brewers. They are especially stingy here at the Friendly Confines where they allow just 3.8 rpg, which is 4th fewest in all of baseball. They did lose two low-scoring games at Miller Park last weekend before winning the finale 11-4. I fully anticipate the Brewers struggling to score again in this series, starting w/ today's matchup vs. lefty Jose Quintana, who has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. He was the starter for that 11-4 win over the Brewers last Sunday. 

Though the Cubs just dropped two of three at both Milwaukee and St. Louis, they still have a much better YTD run differential than those two division foes. In fact, the Brew Crew have actually been outscored this season in spite of a 57-53 record. They are sub-.500 on the road after dropping 2 of 3 in Oakland to start the week. The schedule makers are doing them no favors here, making them go from Oakland to Chicago w/o a day off. Starter Zach Davies has struggled in B2B starts, giving up 14 runs in just 9 IP, seven of them to the Cubs last Sunday. Look for Quintana to beat Davies for the 2nd straight time. 8* Chi Cubs

6* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The last time these NL West rivals met was the start of last month, right here at Chavez Ravine. The Padres actually took the final three of that four-game series and the Dodgers' last two home games in July (both coming against the Angels) were also losses. Expect those losing streaks to come to a screeching halt tonight though as LA is a heavy favorite w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound. And for good reason. The Dodgers are still 40-14 at home this year and #1 overall in my own personal power rankings. They've won 14 of Kershaw's 18 starts as well. Truthfully, they should be much higher on the money line. Back them in this series opener. 

The Padres had dreams of contending in 2019 after signing Manny Machado in the offseason. But Machado is just one player and those dreams have since faded. The team comes into Thursday having dropped 12 of 17 games since the All-Star Break and I certainly don't think tonight's starter, Joey Lucchesi, is the one to turn this ship around. Especially facing a team like the Dodgers. Lucchesi has struggled on the road all season w/ a 6.48 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in eight starts. He's also struggled recently w/ a 5.28 ERA and 1.566 WHIP his L3 starts overall. He has a 6.75 ERA in five career starts vs. the Dodgers.

Kershaw's resume needs little in the way of introduction as he continues to be one of the best pitchers in the game today. His season started later than normal and truthfully he initially wasn't quite as dominant as we're used to seeing. But everything is "back to normal" now w/ four consecutive quality outings where he's allowed only five runs in 25 IP. He also has 35 strikeouts during that time. As you might expect, Kershaw has dominated the Padres throughout his career, going 19-6 w/ a 2.00 ERA. He's faced them twice in 2019 and both were quality starts w/ him allowing just five runs total on 11 hits in 13 IP (15-2 KW rate). 6* LA Dodgers

10* Under Hamilton/Saskatchewan (9:30 ET): The knee-jerk reaction here would be to back Saskatchewan as Hamilton just lost QB Jeremiah Masoli (to a season-ending injury) in last week's big 23-15 win over previously unbeaten Winnipeg. But the Roughriders are also playing on a short week (just five days between games). The last time that happened, they lost to Calgary 37-10 right here at home. These teams met once before w/ the Riders' defense actually doing an outstanding job in holding the Ti-Cats to a season-low (tied w/ last wk) 23 pts. With Masoli out and the Riders on a short week, Under is the call here.

Early on in the season, I wrote that Masoli was one of the main reasons the Ti-Cats should breeze to an Eastern Division Championship. After all, Hamilton was the only team in the East that came into the season settled at the pivot. But w/ Masoli now done for the year, that opens this divisional race up. The Ti-Cats are fortunate that they've started 5-1. But backup Dane Evans will be making just his second career start here and did not look particularly good last week against Winnipeg. Remember that this Saskatchewan defense held Hamilton to just 23 pts and 230 total yards earlier in this year and that was w/ Masoli, on the road. 

So I expect the Riders defense to play well this week. Last week, they held B.C. to just 77 total yards! But I expect a strong showing from the Ti-Cats stop unit as well. They've held four of their six opponents to 17 points or less this season, including the Week 1 win over the Roughriders. Saskatchewan is coming off B2B high-scoring games against last place B.C., but the offense should be in for a rude awakening this week, going up against a much better defense. The Under is 8-3 the L11 meetings. 10* Under Hamilton/Saskatchewan

10* Denver (8:00 ET): The Broncos enter the 2019 season w/ a new head coach (Vic Fangio) and new starting QB (Joe Flacco). Being that this is their first game under a new HC, I think they're more apt to take this Hall of Fame Game more seriously compared to their opponents, who largely are bringing back the same cast of characters from last year. First year head coaches are usually a target of mine in these preseason games as motivation is such a key factor in handicapping them. A new coach definitely wants to get the fanbase on his side and the best way to do that is through some wins, even if they occur in games that are rather meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Lay the points here. 

Atlanta hasn't taken the preseason very seriously under Dan Quinn, at least I hope that the case because they've gone 5-11 SU in his four seasons here, including B2B 0-4 campaigns. So it's an eight-game preseason losing streak heading into this one for the Falcons. Were it a new coaching staff, I'd say they'd be motivated to end it. But with Quinn comfortable entering year five, I don't think it's a priority for him. Last year, the Falcons offense scored a grand total of 27 pts in four preseason games. QB Matt Ryan threw just two passes in Week 1 of the Preseason LY and may not play at all tonight. WR Julio Jones definitely isn't going to play. 

Flacco and Ryan were both drafted in the same year (2008). Flacco has won a Super Bowl, but his best days seem to be behind him. He won't play Thursday, but the Broncos have an interesting battle going on for the backup QB role involving three rookies: Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Kevin Hogan. The hope is that Lock will win the job as he was drafted highest. But Hogan will start. This is something else to look for in the preseason, that being having motivated signal callers in the game, which ensures the offense will at least be a little more than "vanilla." History says the Broncos will be the more motivated side here. 10* Denver

8* NY Mets (2:10 ET): Somebody break up the Mets! All of a sudden, they've won six in a row and believe it or not, they're only five games back of the Wild Card. Of course, facing the White Sox helps. This is a team (Chicago, this is) that we've recommended fading numerous times over the last couple months as the have a dismal YTD run differential (now -118), which is third worst in all of MLB. Quite frankly, the Sox were very lucky to have stayed a few games within a few games of .500 for much of the season. But 2019 is "all over but the shouting" for them now. You can only beat the teams on your schedule and the Mets have taken advantage of a weak slate on this win streak of theirs. Look for them to finish off a 2nd straight sweep this afternoon!

Zach Wheeler will pitch today for New York, looking to follow up on a win his last time out where he had seven strikeouts and no walks. It was the 4th time in his last 5 starts that Wheeler gave up three runs or less. Facing a lineup this bad should certainly result in that streak continuing. Chicago is hitting just .216 in its last seven games w/ an average of only 2.1 rpg scored. The White Sox also rank 28th overall in runs scored. The Mets have done well against the American League teams on their schedule, now at 9-4 for the year.

White Sox starter Dylan Cease has really struggled since a solid big league debut back on July 3rd. His L3 starts, all occurring after the Break, have seen him go 0-3 w/ a 7.31 ERA and 1.625 WHIP. He's had a nasty penchant for giving up the "big inning" and that's cost him. Remember, theoretically, the Mets lineup is stronger now w/ a DH. Perhaps the most fraudulent thing of all about the White Sox is how they have a .500 record here at Guaranteed Rate Field despite being outscored by 1.4 rpg! They are also just 16-30 in day games. 8* NY Mets

8* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): It shouldn't be much of a surprise which side I'm taking in this rubber match as I've been very vocal in recent weeks about how fraudulent the Giants' second half of the season has been. Give them credit for winning 5-1 yesterday, though that was their first win by more than one run since beating Colorado 11-8 on July 17th. That's a two week span. In between, all seven Giants' wins were of the one-run variety, five of them coming in extra innings. How fortunate is that!? Despite being two games over .500, San Francisco has still been outscored on the year by 43 runs, making them massive overachievers in terms of their won-loss record. As I did Tuesday, back the Phillies this afternoon. 

The Phillies took the series opener 4-2 before losing 5-1 yday. I had the Under last night, which was my 10* Total of the Month and the Phils were my 10* Game of the Month on Tuesday. So I've been pretty "plugged into" this series. For this rubber match, Philly would seem to have a considerable edge on the mound w/ Jake Arrieta pitching. While he stumbled in a 9-2 loss to the Braves last weekend, Arrieta had looked good in each of his previous two starts. The Giants offense, while better on the road, still ranks 27th in MLB in runs scored, 28th in batting average and 28th in OPS. The Phillies are also a strong 23-13 in day games this season.

Going here for the Giants will be Dereck Rodriguez, an overnight change from originally scheduled starter Shaun Anderson. Rodriguez has been used sparingly in the starter's role, making only one since May 10th. It was back on July 15th and an impressive showing as he allowed just one run in five innings at Coors Field. But I still wouldn't read too much into that. He'd really struggled his three times starting previous to that, giving up 18 runs in 13 IP. Perhaps I'm being stubborn, but I'll continue to fade the Giants after they overachieved greatly in July. 8* Philadelphia

10* Under Giants/Phillies (7:05 ET): Yesterday I wrote, rather extensively, on how fraudulent the Giants have been in the second half of the season. Armed w/ that info, I made the Phillies my 10* Game of the Month and sure enough they delivered w/ a 4-2 win. It would have been somewhat poetic for San Francisco to lose by one run seeing as how they are 8-1 in one-run games since the Break (and a MLB-best 26-10 in them for the year - very lucky!), but I'll take it. Note the Giants' previous seven wins had all been by exactly one run, five of them coming in extra innings. They are 7-0 in extras since the Break. After successfully fading them Tuesday, tonight it's time to once again exploit their deficiencies w/ our biggest total of the month! Take the Under. 

The Giants do score two more full runs per game on the road compared to at home. But let's keep in mind that they still rank 27th in runs scored overall, 28th in batting average and 28th in OPS. So this is not a good offensive ballcllub. Nor are they a serious playoff contender, considering they've been outscored by 47 runs over the course of the season. I like Phillies' starter Vince Velasquez to keep them in check tonight as his WHIP (1.091) is a lot better than his ERA (4.91) at home, indicating that he's been a little unlucky in those starts. Last time out, Velasquez blanked the Tigers for 5 2/3 innings, holding them to four hits. Yesterday's starter, Drew Smyly, held the Giants scoreless for seven innings. The Giants only runs came on a pair of pinch hit HR's in the eighth. 

Jeff Samardzija has pitched well for SF recently. His ERA in July is 2.48 (five starts), which is good. He's allowed 2 ER or less in four of the five starts. He'll again need to be at his best here considering the Giants have scored two runs or less in four of their last five games. I think he will be as the former Notre Dame wide receiver also has a pretty solid WHIP this season (1.178) and the current Phillies lineup doesn't have that many at bats against him (this is the first time these teams have met in 2019). The Under is now a perfect 5-0 the L5 meetings and three of the last eight have ended up being shutouts. 10* Under Giants/Phillies

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): I'm not convinced that the Cardinals are a better overall team than the Cubs or that they will end up winning the NL Central. The Cards and Cubs enter this series tied for 1st in the division, both sporting 56-49 records. The Cubs have the better YTD run differential (+71 vs. +19), but St. Louis has the all-important homefield edge in this series and the home team has won all nine previous meetings here in 2019. The Cubs aren't a good road team (20-31 record) and I believe the Redbirds are going to exact some revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered at Wrigley Field last month.

The Cards will be giving the baseball to Adam Wainwright tonight. He, like most of St. Louis pitchers, perform a lot better here at Busch Stadium. His ERA and WHIP are 2.33 and 1.204 at home, compared to 7.54 and 1.721 on the road. So you can see why it's so important for St. Louis to get this series at home. When they swept the Cubs here back in late May/early June, Wainwright tossed a gem in one of those three games, going eight innings w/o giving up a run. He allowed just two hits. His last home start (7.14 vs. Arizona) saw him toss seven shutout innings in a 5-2 victory.

The Cubs have Yu Darvish on the mound here and he's given up 4+ runs in four of his last six outings. There were two good ones (where he threw 13 consecutive scoreless innings), but both came at home. Darvish has started twice against St. Louis this year. Ironically, the one time at home went worse for him. But considering the Cubs have a 3-7 record in Darvish road starts, I wouldn't fret. This is their third consecutive road series and they've dropped five of seven overall, a stretch where they've hit a putrid .198 collectively. 8* St. Louis 

10* Under Twins/Marlins (7:10 ET): These teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum as we are set to hit the end of July. The Twins, one of the more pleasant surprises in baseball, continue to lead the AL Central. They've been in the driver's seat much of the way, but Cleveland is hot on their heels right now and it looks as if this will be a tightly contested race the rest of the way. Miami is not in playoff contention nor were they expected to be coming into the season. They are the weakest team in the National League in just about every metric, most notably runs scored. With the DH absent from the Twins' lineup (NL rules), I'm playing the Under tonight. 

Minnesota certainly can score. They put 11 runs on the board Sunday as they finished off a successful series against the White Sox (won 3 of 4 games). Only the Yankees and Red Sox have scored more runs than this Twins this season. They are averaging 6.1 rpg on the road, which is 2nd most overall (trailing only the Yankees), but that's a hard number to maintain. Here, they'll be facing a starter that has 1.56 ERA and 1.096 WHIP his L3 starts. That would be Zac Gallen, who has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his six starts for the Marlins. Last time out, he threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the White Sox. It ended up being a 2-0 Miami win and the fourth straight start for Gallen that stayed Under the total. 

Miami's lack of scoring has been an issue all season long. They did beat Arizona 11-6 on Monday, which is quite the high scoring effort for them. It wasn't a season-high in runs scored, but of note is that the Marlins are 4-1 Under this year after scoring 10+ runs in the previous game. In three of those five games, they scored two runs or less. They also had only 10 hits in yday's game, so they were lucky to get that many runs across the plate. Jake Odorizzi hasn't been as effective in the second half as he was in the first for Minnesota, but this is likely to be the easiest lineup he faces all year. In half of his 20 starts this year, Odorizzi has allowed 1 or 0 ER. Miami has scored 90 fewer runs than every other NL team. 10* Under Twins/Marlins

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): OK, so we have reached a point w/ the Giants where they clearly are going to regress moving forward. At least that's what all the numbers say. This team has gone an extremely fortunate 7-0 in extra inning games since the Break and their last seven wins overall have all been by one run (5-0 in extras)! While now two games above .500 (54-52), the Giants have still been outscored by 45 runs, a differential that's indicative of a team w/ a 48-58 record. Even in winning 7 of their L10 games, they've been outscored. They are a MLB-best 26-10 in one-run games for the season, which again, is very lucky. Combine all of the above w/ the Phillies desperately needing wins to stay relevant in the playoff race and you have my strongest MLB play for July. Take the Phillies. 

Philly dropped two of three to Atlanta over the weekend (here at home), but they are still only a game back of the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. Do I think the Phils will end up as a playoff team? Probably not. But they're certainly more viable that this overachieving Giants team. Drew Smyly makes his second start for them tonight. His 1st really could not have gone any better as he pitched six innings and allowed only one run in a 2-1 win at Pittsburgh. The Giants have never faced him before. 

These teams have yet to meet this season, but last year saw the home team win all seven times they played. The Giants have dropped six straight games here in Philadelphia. Tyler Beede will get the nod for them tonight and he's coming off his worst showing of the season, having allowed a season-high 10 hits in just 5 2/3 IP. Three of those 10 hits were home runs as the Giants lost 4-1 to the Cubs. Those numbers (see above) for the Giants are really damning as this is a team I'm going to look to regularly fade in August. They'll also be my biggest fade for July! 10* Philadelphia

10* Under D'backs/Marlins (7:10 ET): This is actually the finale of a four-game series that began Friday. Losing two of the first three games has to be considered terribly disappointing for Arizona, but that's "par for the course" in a season where they have outscored opponents by 66 runs, yet are only .500. They lost 5-1 Sunday, a game in which I cashed the Under. Now I also did lose w/ the Under Saturday, a 9-2 final which was the D'backs lone win of the series. But that game featured a grand slam. The opener of this series also stayed Under as it was a 3-2 final (Miami scored two in the bottom of the ninth). Take the Under here. 

With the Marlins, it's easy to understand why you'd want to consistently bet the Under. After all, they are the lowest scoring team in the National League (by a wide margin). I shared this tidbit yday, but they've now scored only 367 runs in 103 games this year. The next lowest scoring team in the NL is Cincinnati w/ 458 runs scored (also in 103 games). But fortunately for Miami, tonight they have Caleb Smith on the mound and he's pitched very well of late (1.50 ERA L3 starts) and at home (1.79 ERA in seven starts). He has a 1.022 WHIP overall (16 starts), which ranks top 10 in all of baseball. Smith's last start was arguably his best as he went seven innings and allowed just one run on two hits. 

Arizona has been held to three totals runs in its two losses in the series. So Smith should fare quite nicely against them, one day after celebrating his 28th birthday. He's got a wide array of pitches that opposing hitters struggle against. The D'backs will counter w/ Merrill Kelly, who had been pitching just fine prior to a shockingly poor start against Baltimore last week. Look for Kelly to bounce back though as this will be the weakest lineup he faces all season long. The Under is 5-0-1 when he starts on five or more days rest. 10* Under D'backs/Marlins

8* Washington (7:05 ET): For much of the first half, the Nationals' season had to be considered a "disappointment." Certainly by me, as I had pegged them to be one of the NL's most improved teams this season. Injuries and a shaky bullpen really hurt early on, but then the club finally caught fire right before the All-Star Break by winning 10 of 12. The second half of the season has brought its own challenges, namely in the starting rotation as Max Scherzer has missed his last several turns. The Nats were able to avoid getting swept at home (by the Dodgers) over the weekend by winning Sunday. One starter that they can count on though is Pat Corbin, who goes Monday in the opener of this all-important series w/ 1st place Atlanta. I'll back him in this spot.

While Washington was able to avoid getting swept on Sunday, Atlanta failed to finish off a sweep. They lost to the Phillies 9-4 yday, a game where I cashed the Over. The first two games had seen the Braves score 24 runs and they remain one of the NL's highest scoring teams. The starting rotation was thought to be solidified last month when Dallas Keuchel was brought in, a big free agent signing that signaled the Braves were "all in" for 2019. But Keuchel's TSR so far is just 3-4 and he lost (as a big home favorite) his last time out to Kansas City. He hasn't been that effective on the road either w/ a 4.24 ERA and 1.585 WHIP. That includes a loss here in D.C. back in his first start for the Braves, which dropped Keuchel to 0-2 w/ a 4.71 ERA in four career starts vs. the Nats. Current Washington hitters have combined to go 41 for 111 (.369) against Keuchel w/ a .974 OPS.

Meanwhile, Corbin has excelled in the past against the Braves. He's gone 5-1 w/ 1.84 ERA in 10 career appearances. That's his best win percentage against any opponent he's faced more than once. Corbin has also excelled here at home this season where he's 5-1 w/ a 1.68 ERA and 0.876 WHIP. Two Braves' hitters he won't have to worry about tonight are Nick Markakis and Darby Swanson, both of whom are injured and out of the lineup. Currently sitting 5.5 games back of the Braves in the NL East standings, this is a huge series for the Nationals and they open it w/ a win. 8* Washington

10* Boston (7:05 ET): I think it's fair to say this was the Red Sox biggest series to date and they've responded in kind by taking three straight from the Yankees. While I'm not sure they'll be able to catch their rivals for first place in the AL East, a Wild Card berth would suffice for the reigning World Series Champs and they enter Sunday tied w/ Oakland for the second WC spot. Just as important, they are looking to finish off a four-game sweep. While Boston came into this series just 1-6 head to head w/ NY this season, none of those games were played here at Fenway where they're now averaging 5.8 rpg. I'll call for them to finish off the sweep tonight on ESPN. 

Yankees pitching has absolutely been annihilated this past week, giving up an average of 10.4 runs the last seven games. Rarely do you see an average that high over a week's time. This series has seen Boston score 38 runs in three games, starting w/ a 19-3 win on Thursday. The Red Sox have scored at least nine runs in all three games, so good luck to Domingo German, who gets the start tonight for the Yankees. German's TSR on the road this season is 7-2, but that's misleading as it comes in spite of a poor 5.65 ERA. In his last start, German gave up eight runs in 3 2/3 innings as the Yanks ended up beating Minnesota 14-12. 

Speaking of misleading records, Boston has Chris Sale on the mound here. The Red Sox record w/ him on the mound this year is just 8-13, which is kind of shocking, but he's pitched better than the record indicates. We're looking a 1.084 WHIP in 21 starts, which is sixth best in the American League. He's also third w/ 182 strikeouts. Sale has been sharp of late w/ B2B quality starts that saw him allow just two runs in 12 IP w/ 22 K's. It is not often you can play him below -200 on the money line here at home. I'll jump at the opportunity. 10* Boston

8* Under Indians/Royals (2:15 ET): Cleveland continues to clean up against the garbage teams in their division and as a result they are now only one game back of Minnesota, who has been out in front in the AL Central all season. To be clear, it's not the Twins that the Indians have been dominating in head to head play. Not only are they are 12-1 against the horrible Tigers this season, this month has seen them take eight of nine from Kansas City. Sunday sees the Tribe going for their second sweep of the Royals in July. Back on Thursday, I started this series with an Under play (my 10* Total of the Week) which cashed despite the game going 14 innings. I'll conclude the same way. Take the Under. 

 Kansas City has scored all of eight runs in this series and today they've got to deal with the mercurial Trevor Bauer, who has pitched well of late. Last time out, Bauer threw 7 2/3 scoreless innings and allowed just three hits. Unfortunately, Cleveland lost that game 2-1 to Toronto. That's one of only four losses since the Break for the Indians, who are now a season-high 20 games above .500. They've won 12 of 14 w/ the only two losses coming by scores of 2-1 and 1-0. Bauer will be going for a 5th straight quality start here. 

As was the case w/ the Arizona-Miami game yday, a grand slam was what was largely responsible for the game going Over and the road team winning comfortably. In the Indians' case, it was Jason Kipnis who hit it (in the 1st inning) and they never looked back after that. They'll go up against Danny Duffy today and while they've certainly had his number in the past, Duffy is coming in off B2B very impressive starts, especially the last one where he held Atlanta to one run in six innings and had 11 K's. Duffy also pitched well the last time he faced Cleveland, giving up only two runs in 6 2/3 innings. The Royals lost that game 4-0 though as they haven't topped five runs in any of the nine games against Cleveland this month. 8* Under Indians/Royals

8* Under D'backs/Marlins (1:10 ET): I missed on this play yesterday as Arizona had a six-run inning, capped by a Nick Ahmed grand slam. They finished with nine runs, but on only seven hits. The first time through the order, the D'backs couldn't even manage as much as a hit, but the second time was a much different story against Jordan Yamamoto. As for Miami, well, they're still the National League's lowest scoring team by a wide margin. Today's starting pitching matchup may not be as attractive as yday's, but I'm going w/ the Under again as absent that one big inning yday, this has been a really low scoring series. 

As mentioned above, and discussed in further detail in yday's analysis, Miami is by far the lowest scoring team in the NL. They've scored just 362 runs in 102 games. To put that in perspective, the NL's next lowest scoring team is San Diego w/ 454 runs scored. Since the All-Star Break, the Marlins offense has been particularly putrid. Five of the last six games have seen them get held to three runs or less. That's happened nine times since the Break. Thus Arizona's Robbie Ray should have a relatively easy outing here. He had 10 K's in his last start as he improved to 4-0 in July, all quality starts. He's averaging nearly 12 K's per nine innings this year and has a 2.28 ERA in four career starts vs. Miami. 

The Marlins turn to Elieser Hernandez Sunday. He's made just five starts in 2019, but has been better in this role as opposed to that of a reliever. Hernandez hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of his starts and has a 0.97 WHIP in the two that have taken place here at home. The Under is 3-0-2 in his five starts. 8* Under D'backs/Marlins

10* Over Braves/Phillies (1:05 ET): Atlanta has taken the first two of this three-game set, scoring 24 runs in the process. The Braves are one of the National League's highest scoring teams and - by far - the highest scoring team in their own division. This being a division series has meant the wins have been of a little more importance than per usual. But the Braves will be underdogs Sunday as they are set to face Aaron Nola and can only offer a struggling Kevin Gausman as a counter. The first two games easily went Over and so too should this one - regardless of who wins.

Nola has inarguably been Philadelphia's best starter this year. He's allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of his last seven starts while posting a 1.51 ERA. That stretch includes eight shutout innings against the Braves back on July 2nd. But things haven't always gone that well against this particular division opponent. He allowed five runs to them, in just 4 2/3 IP, back on June 15th. Now both of those starts came in Atlanta. Nola has been a better pitcher here at home, but I still question whether he can maintain his recent level of performance. I see the Braves being able to match their season average of 5.0 rpg on the road here. After all, they've scored 24 runs the past two days.

Lost in Saturday's defeat is the fact the Phillies scored seven runs. They should again be able to score plenty today. They face Gausman, who has not had much success against them in the past. He's winless (three starts) w/ a 5.51 ERA against them in his career. He's also been pretty bad on the road this season w/ a 6.35 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in six outings. The Over has gone 5-0-1. Last week, Gausman made a successful return from the DL, but his work from earlier in the season has me skeptical. 10* Over Braves/Phillies

10* San Diego (8:40 ET): So the Giants have become my least favorite MLB team, for reasons I'll get into right now. They have gone 12-3 since the All-Star Break, which is commendable, but it's been about as fortunate a streak as I've seen in recent memory. It's not like this is a good team; they've still been outscored by 42 runs this season. But they are a lucky team. Since the Break, they are now a perfect 7-0 in extra games, which includes last night's 2-1 win in 11 innings. That record is pretty ridiculous as is their MLB-best 25-10 record in one-run games this season. Their last six wins have all been by exactly one run, five of those coming in extra innings. Incredible.

On the other side of the ledger, we've got the Padres, who just dropped their eighth straight home game last night. It was also a failed attempt to exact revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered at the hands of the Giants at the beginning of the month. Full disclosure - I had the Padres last night and am none too happy about the result as it was a top play (10*). I thought it was time to "sell high" on the Giants going into their previous series (w/ the Cubs), but it turns out that hasn't been the case (yet!) as their only loss since then came in a game where there was a pitching change and thus my fade had to be ruled "no action." 

Speaking of "lucky," how about the fact Giants starter Shaun Anderson has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts in spite of a 7.54 ERA and 1.675 WHIP? (Do you sense a theme here?) Anderson has not factored into any of the decisions as he did last longer than five innings in any of the three games, all of which were come from behind efforts by the team. The bottom line (as I'm sure you can tell by now!) is I simply do not respect the Giants. I'll trust San Diego w/ Cal Quantrill on the hill to get it done today. Quantrill hasn't allowed any runs his last two appearances, giving up only five hits in 11 2/3 IP. The Padres are due for some revenge (and a win at home!) while the Giants are set to regress. 10* San Diego

7* Minnesota (7:10 ET): The White Sox are a sinking ship, not that I didn't see this coming. This is a team that has had a very poor run differential all season and the fact they were able to stay within a few games of .500 was always highly misleading. In terms of actual vs. expected wins, they are still baseball's biggest overachiever in 2019, which is saying something as their won-loss record is only 45-56. But a run differential that's now -107 (3rd worst) is indicative of a 39-win team, a gap of six games from what's normally expected. They've been outscored 16-5 by the Twins in the first two games of this series and are set to lose again tonight. 

Now 63-40 on the season, Minnesota continues to lead the AL Central, but Cleveland (just two games back) is hot on their heels. The Twins are considered a surprise success story in 2019, but their own run differential (+119) indicates that this is a very legitimate contender. They are averaging 6.1 runs per game on the road, which is a really impressive number. That's a big reason why they are 32-19 away from Target Field. So I expect them to "tee off" against Ivan Nova, who has a 6.02 home ERA this season. Nova did just toss a complete game his last time out, allowing only one run, but that was against a Miami team that is among the lowest scoring in all of MLB. 

Minnesota hit five home runs last night, becoming the fastest team to 200 (home runs) in a season - ever. Back on June 29th, Nova gave up a pair of long balls in a 10-3 home loss to the Twins. That last start simply is not indicative of how Nova has pitched over the balance of the year. Martin Perez will get the baseball for the Twins and he's 3-1 in four previous starts vs. Chicago. Consider that the White Sox are averaging only 2.7 runs over the last seven games while batting .196. Minnesota is averaging 7.7 rpg its last seven games while batting a collective .300! This is a huge mismatch. 7* Minnesota 

10* British Columbia (7:00 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for BC, who sits at 1-5 SU/ATS w/ their lone win coming on a last-second rouge over (still) winless Toronto back in Week 4. But I'll take a flier here as the Lions are a home dog in an immediate revenge spot vs. division rival Saskatchewan. Last week at Mosaic Stadium, the Roughriders prevailed 38-25 as six-point chalk. You may recall the fact I was on them. But comparing spreads, there definitely appears to be value on the home side as a dog this go around. Take the points. 

A key factor in me playing Saskatchewan last week was the fact they were coming off a bye. They were certainly eager to take the field after being embarrassed two weeks prior (also at home) by Calgary, 37-10 as five-point favorites. BC has not yet had its bye (comes next week). With their next three games coming against Winnipeg and Hamilton, two on the road (yikes!), this week is absolutely the Lions best shot at a win between now and the end of August. Getting this one at home is also huge as Saskatchewan is 0-2 on the road having opened the season w/ losses at Hamilton and Ottawa. The Roughriders haven't played a road game in a little over a month.

The Lions actually outgained the Roughriders last week, 458-379, but gave up far too many "big plays" in the second half. For QB Mike Reilly, it was still a nice bounce back performance (31-40, 346 yds) after the disastrous game vs. Edmonton the week prior. Despite the 1-5 record, the Lions' offense actually leads the entire CFL in first downs w/ 130. With their season basically at stake here, I'll take them as a home dog. 10* British Columbia

8* Under D'backs/Marlins (6:10 ET): Arizona badly needs to win this series and honestly a sweep was probably what they really needed. But a sweep is now out of the question after blowing a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth here in Miami yday. The loss drops the D'backs back to .500 even though they've actually outscored their opponents this year by 63 runs, which is the third best differential in the entire National League. While they do score more on the road than at home, that wasn't the case last night and facing Jordan Yamamoto here won't making scoring any easier. So I'm playing the Under in this one. 

Fortunately for Arizona, they too should have confidence in their starter. Alex Young has posted a 2.66 ERA and 0.738 WHIP in four starts. While he was shaky his last time out (allowed 4 runs in 4 IP to Milwaukee), his first three starts saw him allow all of two runs in 16 1/3 IP. He's allowed only nine hits so far and no-hit Colorado (for six innings) back on July 7th. Miami will be the weakest lineup Young has faced so far as they come in having scored a NL-low 360 runs this season. To put that number in some perspective, the next lowest scoring team in the NL is San Diego w/ 449 runs scored. 

True to form, the Marlins have been held to three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. The last three have all stayed Under. But with Yamamoto pitching today, they should stay in the game. Yamamoto is off his worst start to date, giving up five runs in four innings to the Dodgers. But that's the Dodgers and he actually only allowed four hits. Like Young, Yamamoto has a solid WHIP (1.026) as he doesn't give up many hits. He's allowed just 22 hits in 38 IP and three of his seven starts have seen him give up zero runs. This battle of rookies will be a pitcher's duel. 8* Under D'backs/Marlins

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Giants are a team I've been looking to "sell high" on all week. Unfortunately, thanks to a pitching change Wednesday, I was not able to seize the opportunity. I was all set to take the Cubs in San Fran, but starter Jon Lester was a late scratch, thus rendering my play a "no action." For what it's worth, the Cubs did win anyway (4-1), snapping the Giants' three-game in streak. A large reason why I've been so eager to fade the Giants is they're clearly overachieving at this point. Despite being a game over .500, they've actually been outscored by 43 runs this season. I won't miss this chance to fade them in what's a huge revenge spot for the Padres. 

Unlike SF, San Diego played yesterday. They were shutout, 4-0 by the Mets, but the good news is that they typically bounce back well from such defeats. They're a perfect 2-0 this year off a shutout loss and 19-8 in that situation the L3 seasons. Starting the series opener for the Padres will be Joey Lucchesi. While he struggled in his last start (at Wrigley Field), Lucchesi has been far better at home. He's gone 6-2 here at Petco Park w/ a 2.83 ERA and 1.037 WHIP. I like him in this spot obviously. 

Many will look at Jeff Samardzija's recent numbers and be impressed. But a string of three straight quality starts ended last week when he allowed four runs in just five innings to the Mets. The Giants lost that game 11-4. I mentioned earlier that this is a revenge spot for the Padres. They were swept here at home by San Francisco at the start of this month. That's what began a stunning 16-4 run by the Giants (best record in baseball this month), but be aware that they have gone an extremely fortunate 6-0 in extra inning games during that time. Their last five wins have also all been of the one-run variety. It's time for them to regress and the Padres to get revenge. 10* San Diego

7* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Yesterday, I offered up a rare endorsement of the Pirates. In the analysis, I noted it was rare because I'm simply not a believer in the team long-term, nor have I been for some time now. Basically all season long, they've had a run differential indicating they've played about as badly as any team in the NL, at least this side of Miami. The reason for playing Pittsburgh yday afternoon was that they were faced w/ a situation where home teams usually respond positively - needing a win to avoid a four-game sweep. Well, they got swept (by St. Louis) and now the endorsements will get even rarer. In fact, today I'm recommending that you fade them.

While the Pirates were losing their fifth in a row yday, the Mets were busy shutting out the Padres 4-0. New York has had a disappointing season as well, but they're a better team than the Pirates. This weekend will be the 1st time these teams have played in 2019. It's actually been almost a full year since they last met. The Pirates are in bad shape, not only losing their last five games, but also 11 of their last 13. The Mets took two of three from the Padres to start the week. 

Zach Wheeler will make his return to the mound tonight for the Mets. He has not pitched since July 7th. The subject of trade rumors, it appears as if Wheeler may be sticking around in Queens. The Mets have actually done alright when he pitches here at home, going 6-3 and Wheeler has a 1.186 WHIP in those starts. As for Pittsburgh starter Dario Agrazal, he's actually been a nice addition to the banged up Pittsburgh rotation. But the way his team has played in the second half, that hardly matters. The Pirates have lost 16 of their last 21 road games to teams that have winning home records. Back to fading them. 7* NY Mets

9* Over Dodgers/Nationals (7:05 ET): Whenever the sensational Hyun-Jin Ryu is on the bump, the expectation is that there won't be many runs scored, especially from the Dodgers' opponent. But I view Ryu starting the series opener against the Nationals a little differently. It's not like the Under has been a sure thing in Ryu starts this season (it's only 10-9) and the Dodgers offense is certainly capable of "carrying the load" offensively, if need be. They average 5.5 rpg on the road where they also allow far more than they do at Chavez Ravine. Washington is no slouch offensively either. Take the Over. 

Ryu's numbers are obviously ridiculous and that's why he started for the Senior Circuit in the All-Star Game. But while his numbers are other-worldly at home (10-0 TSR, 0.89 ERA, 0.792 WHIP), they are simply "good" on the road (2.92 ERA, 1.127 WHIP) and his TSR is actually just 4-5. His last road start, a 7-4 Dodgers' win over the Red Sox, easily went Over. Here, he'll be facing a Washington team that scored seven runs yday (but lost as a huge ML favorite). The Over is actually 17-5 in the Dodgers L22 road games vs. teams that have winning records and 6-1 in Ryu's L7 starts vs. teams w/ winning records. 

Washington will go w/ Anibal Sanchez opposite Ryu and he too has pitched well of late. A win over the Braves on Saturday improved his record to 6-0 in his L9 starts (8-1 TSR) w/ a 2.70 ERA. But he'll be going up against the best team in baseball tonight and the highest scoring team in the National League. Like the Nats, LA comes into this series in a foul mood after they dropped both games of the previous series (to the Angels). Also of note is the fact Sanchez has given up a home run in eight consecutive starts. 9* Over Dodgers/Nationals

8* Edmonton (9:30 ET): The Eskimos are set to take the field just five days after they last played. That's hardly ideal, but the situation is actually worse for the visiting Argonauts, who are still winless (0-5) and playing their third road game in as many weeks. Four of the Argos' five losses have been by at least 10 points, including last week's when a sloppy second half led to a 26-16 defeat at the hands of Calgary. But the real reason the Argos are in trouble here may have nothing to do w/ them at all. Rather, it's the fact Edmonton was upset Saturday at Montreal as six-point chalk. I'm laying the points here as this could get ugly, in a hurry.

The Eskimos just played their L3 games all on the road, so they know the situation Toronto is facing all too well. It was a 20-10 defeat out in Montreal Saturday, the Esks' lowest scoring game of the season. But now they're back home where they've gone 2-0 so far this year, beating Montreal by seven and B.C. by 16. In particular, look for QB Trevor Harris to have a bounce back game tonight as the Argos' defense is giving up a league-worst 37.6 points per game. Despite a subpar game last week, Harris is still leading the league in passing yardage (1,633) w/ eight TD passes. Even w/o RB C.J. Gable and receiver DaVaris Daniels, Harris and the Edmonton offense should have no trouble moving the ball in this game. 

It's not just the defense that's bad for the Argonauts. The offense is averaging a league-low 15.0 PPG and they come into this game w/o RB James Wilder Jr and slotback Armanti Edwards. Sure it was a game effort last week in Calgary, but seven turnovers doomed the Argos and they looked really bad in the second half. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson (threw 4 INT's vs. Calgary) simply doesn't look "ready for primetime" and he'll be going against a defense that's giving up just 20.4 PPG, third fewest in the league. Going back to last year, Toronto has now lost 14 of its last 15 games. Again, lay the points here. 8* Edmonton

10* Under Indians/Royals (8:15 ET): Tip your cap to Kansas City, who just went down to Atlanta and took both games from a Braves team that is in first place in the NL East. Of course, I've been saying the Royals are better than their won-loss record. It may not sound all that impressive, but they have a run differential that's indicative of a team w/ five more wins. Only Cincinnati and Arizona have underachieved more according to run differential. Yesterday's 2-0 Royals' win was their second shutout in the L4 games and we had the Under. Same thing again tonight as they open up a four-game set at Kauffman Stadium w/ division foe Cleveland. 

Cleveland is also off a shutout win as they beat Toronto 4-0 last night. The Indians have gotten themselves into Wild Card position thanks to a soft schedule, but give them credit for taking full advantage. They're now a season-best 17 games over .500. They've already played the Royals six times this month and gone 5-1. The Royals have not scored more than five runs in any of those six games. Even though they did just sweep Atlanta, it's not as if KC hit well in that series. They had just five hits in each game! 

With a 0.977 WHIP in eight starts this season (0.735 L3!), Indians' starter Adam Plutko should pitch well in this spot. The Under has cashed each of the last three times Plutko has faced the Royals and just last week he held them to one run in 7 IP. Unfortunately, he still took the loss in a 1-0 final. Four of Cleveland's last five games have stayed Under while KC is 4-0 Under its L4. While Mike Montgomery definitely struggled last week against the Tribe, it was his first start of the year I expect him to do better this time around. He's on regular rest this time as opposed to the ridiculous amount of time he had off (17 days!) the last time as he'd come over in a trade from the Cubs who had used him exclusively as a reliever. 10* Under Indians/Royals

10* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): Endorsements of the Pirates will be few and far between on this end. It was months ago that I pointed to the team's poor run differential as a sign that they would decline and sure enough, that's exactly what has happened. They've dropped 9 of 11 since the Break and now find themselves in last place in the NL Central. But the reason I'm making an exception on the Bucs today is all about the situation. They find themselves in the rare predicament of possibly getting swept in a four-game series at home. I'll call for them to avoid the sweep.

St. Louis won the first two games of the series 6-5 and 4-3. Following those two one-run decisions, it was a much easier 14-8 victory yesterday. While the Cardinals are seemingly surging (won 10 of 13), I'm still unconvinced that this is anything but a mediocre ballclub. They are below .500 on the road and today's starter, Miles Mikolas, has been downright horrendous away from Busch Stadium w/ a 7.04 ERA and 1.627 WHIP. He's dropped his last five decisions on the road to fall to 1-6 in 10 starts. With the Cards' bullpen having already been taxed in this series, there's a lot of pressure on Mikolas here and I don't think he's up for the challenge. 

Joe Musgrove will go for the Pirates. While it hasn't been a great year for him, he looked great his last time out, allowing just an unearned run and two hits in a 5-1 win over the Phillies. Musgrove went six innings and matched a season-high w/ eight strikeouts. The team does have a winning record (6-4) w/ him on the mound at PNC Park this season. While Musgrove lost opposite Mikolas earlier this month, that game was obviously played in St. Louis. The Pirates are 5-0 in Musgrove's L5 home starts. 10* Pittsburgh 

10* Under Royals/Braves (7:20 ET): I think there a lot of factors pointing to this being a low-scoring game Wednesday night at SunTrust Park. First off, the Royals are w/o the DH because this Interleague series is being contested under National League rules. Now while they didn't stop KC from winning 5-4 Tuesday night, note they had only five hits and a three-run rally in the top half of the eighth was a total manufacture job as they drew three walks and a HBP. The Braves are big favorites Wednesday night and if they hold true to form, then the likelihood of playing the bottom of the ninth is small here. Take the Under. 

The Royals are likely to struggle again at the plate tonight as they are facing Julio Teheran. Teheran has been lights out of late for the Braves, posting a 1.53 ERA and 0.849 WHIP his L3 starts. While he actually didn't win any decisions during that time, the team went 3-0 in those games. Teheran also has a 2.54 ERA in nine home starts this season. He's actually allowed 2 ER or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts overall. Again, it was hardly a productive night at the plate Tuesday for the DH-less Royals, who are now 22-7 Under their L29 games vs. the National League. 

Fortunately for KC, they've got Brad Keller pitching and he's had a good month so far w/ a 1.80 ERA in three starts. The Royals have won the L4 times he's started. He was hit w/ two unearned runs his last time out (allowed four total), but had allowed 1 or 0 runs in four of his six starts previous to that. The last time Keller pitched in a NL park was July 5th when he held the Nationals to one run over 5 2/3 innings. The Braves are known as a "high-scoring" team, but their last four games have all stayed Under as have 7 of the last 9. 10* Under Royals/Braves

analysis soon

8* Chi Cubs (9:45 ET): I concede that there are some warning signs here NOT to take the Cubs, such as their struggles both on the road and against left-handed pitching. The latter is exacerbated here by going up against Giants' ace Madison Bumgarner, who is unbeaten over his L5 starts w/ a 1.55 ERA. But, for me, this one boils down to a lack of belief in a San Francisco club that has been drastically overachieving in the second half w/ a 5-0 record in extra inning games. That doesn't even include last night's comeback where they rallied to score three runs in the bottom of the eighth. 

While the Cubs may only be 18-28 on the road, they can take solace in the fact that the Giants are an inept team offensively here at home (just 3.4 rpg). Also, as good as Bumgarner has been recently for SF, Yu Darvish has been better for the Cubs. Darvish goes tonight and has been lights out since the Break w/ B2B six shutout inning efforts where he allowed only two hits both times. He had 15 K's against just one walk in the two wins as well. Now both were at home, but I expect Darvish to pitch well here against what remains one of the weakest hitting teams in all of MLB. Even though they're now 10-2 since the Break, the Giants are still 26th in batting average and 28th in OPS. 

Bumgarner has come on strong for the Giants and has had the Cubs number in the past. Off a complete game effort (his 1st of '19) his last time out though, I wonder how he'll follow. Again, the Giants have been really lucky of late and really all year. That might seem odd to say about a team that is over .500 for the 1st time all year. But they've still been outscored by 41 runs and would not be above .500 were it not for a MLB-best 23-10 record in one-run games. Their last four wins have all been by one run, three of them coming in extras. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Under Phillies/Tigers (7:10 ET): Detroit has devolved into one of the worst teams in all of baseball w/ their 30-65 record and -169 run differential. The only team w/ a comparable record is Baltimore and you can expect these two moribund ballclubs to "battle it out" to see who finishes w/ the worst record in MLB this year. Given the current state of the Tigers, it would seem imperative that the Phillies take advantage of their next two games here as they badly need wins to remain viable in the NL Wild Card hunt. Problem is, I'm not confident they'll score a lot of runs tonight. Take the Under.

Philly definitely didn't do a lot of scoring in its last series, though they were able to take two of three from Pittsburgh. They won the rubber match Sunday, 2-1, a day after losing 5-1. All three games in the series stayed Under as have 7 of the team's L10 games overall. In those 10 games, the Phils have been held to four runs or less six times. Another reason I don't see them doing that well at the plate tonight is they're going up against Matthew Boyd, who is Detroit's best starter. Granted, Boyd's ERA has risen over the last month or so, but he still sports a very respectable 3.36 ERA and 1.012 WHIP here at Comerica Park.

The Tigers are averaging only 3.3 runs per game at home this season, which is the lowest average of any team in baseball. So that's a good sign for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who has often struggled on the road this year. But Nola brings in a 3.06 ERA his L3 starts and had allowed 1 or 0 ER in five consecutive outings before running into the Dodgers his last time out. The Phillies aren't the Dodgers and in fact are hitting a collective .213 over their L7 games. With the Under being 8-1 the L9 times Philly has been off an off day, this should be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Phillies/Tigers

10* Boston (7:05 ET): If I may offer a "peek behind the curtain," I've got the Red Sox finishing AHEAD of the Rays and grabbing the second Wild Card in the American League. If that projection is to come to fruition, then Boston has to make a statement (i.e. win!) this series as the Rays are currently reeling. The visitors got off to a great start last night, jumping out to an early 8-0 advantage and holding on for the 9-4 win in a game TB ended up using a position player to pitch the ninth inning. That's just the state of the team right now as the Rays have dropped six of seven while being outscored 41-17 in the process. I'm backing the Red Sox here. 

I know he's struggled some in 2019, but this is a great price on Chris Sale, who is coming off a superb showing vs. Toronto. Not only did he strike out 12, but Sale held the Blue Jays scoreless for six innings and allowed only two hits. Granted, Toronto is bad, but TB isn't exactly hitting the cover off the baseball right now either.  The Rays lineup has produced more than four runs in a game only one time since the Break. Plus, Sale's 1.92 ERA at Tropicana Field is the lowest for him at any park in which he's made at least five starts. Despite the poor ROI on him this season, Sale's WHIP is still 1.079 in 20 starts, which is not bad at all. 

Tampa Bay obviously has pitching concerns if they're turning to a position player to pitch in a key division game. One could make the case that the game was already out of hand, but MLB rules state you're supposed to only use a position player on the mound if trailing by 6+ runs. On Tuesday, the Rays will start Yonny Chrinos, who didn't have a good time w/ the Yankees on Thursday as he allowed 5 runs in 5 IP. Considering that Boston is hitting a lot better than TB is right now, this would seem to be a mismatch. The Red Sox come in averaging nearly 6.0 rpg on the road this season! 10* Boston

10* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): Texas arrives in Seattle on a season-worst seven game win streak. They are still one of nine teams in the American League above .500 (50-49), but their Wild Card hopes are fading fast. Truthfully, this was an overachieving team in the first half of the season. They've got a shot to turn things around though against the last place Mariners, whom they've already beaten in 7 of 10 head to head meetings this year. Also, Seattle comes into the series having dropped eight of its last nine games. Take the Under. 

Texas just couldn't score enough in Houston over the weekend, totaling just seven runs in the three games. During this seven-game slide, they've averaged only 3.3 rpg while batting a collective .175. For the fourth time this season, they are set to face Seattle starter Marco Gonzales. While one of those previous three didn't go well for Gonzales, the other two saw him limit the Rangers' hitters to only two runs in 14 IP. His last time starting at home saw him hold Oakland to just two runs and five hits in 8 IP. That was a far cry from when he faced the A's in Oakland last Tuesday and he allowed six runs. That poor effort snapped a stretch of six straight starts where Gonzales allowed 3 ER or less. 

Adrian Sampson gets the starting nod tonight for the Rangers. He hasn't started a game since July 5th when he was shelled by Minnesota for seven runs. But the Twins are one of the top offensive teams in all of MLB. The Mariners have been held to three runs or less in seven of their eight games since the All-Star Break. All seven instances were losses and they scored just 14 runs in those games. Sampson has a 3.00 ERA in four previous appearances vs. the M's, his former team. He beat them twice back in May, allowing just four runs across 10+ innings. 10* Under Rangers/Mariners

8* Over Cubs/Giants (9:45 ET): This is the one game in this report where I expect plenty of runs to be scored. It's hardly a strong matchup of a starting pitchers as the Cubs go w/ the relatively untested Alec Mills and the Giants go w/ the ineffective Shaun Anderson. The Cubs' last six games have all stayed Under the total, but we look for them to break out tonight as they actually average more runs per game outside of Wrigley. Admittedly, the Giants' offense has been pretty putrid here at home, but they'll have their chances today against Mills. Take the Over. 

The Cubs had won five in a row before losing 5-1 to the Padres Sunday. They are still 7-2 since the Break w/ all of those games played at home. Chalk yday up to being "one of those days," but we think the offense should fare well against Anderson as he has an 8.78 ERA and 2.101 WHIP his L3 starts. Those L3 starts all went Over w/ Anderson allowing 13 runs in 13 1/3 IP. They were all on the road, but Anderson's numbers at home this year aren't much better. Cubs' road games have been averaging more than 10.5 rpg this year. 

Anderson actually has a 3-0 TSR those L3 starts as well, thanks to the Giants scoring 28 runs, including 21 in the last two. Overall, his L4 starts have all gone Over. The Giants needed all of 11 runs to take three of four from the Mets over the weekend and what's interesting is that series went 47 innings as all three Giants' wins were in extra innings. I don't like their chances nearly as much in this series, but they've got a shot here as they're up against an unproven starter (only 1 start in 2019) and the Cubs' bullpen has generally been BAD on the road (5.63 ERA, 1.61 WHIP). The Giants are 9-2 since the All-Star Break. 8* Over Cubs/Giants

8* Under A's/Astros (8:10 ET): Oakland comes into this very important series having won 8 of 10. But they lost yday in crushing fashion up in Minnesota Sunday and would seem to be on the wrong end of a pretty severe pitching mismatch in Monday's opener. Furthermore, the Astros just swept the Rangers over the weekend, holding them to all of all of five runs. The last run through the Houston rotation saw the five starters all allow three runs or fewer. Now tonight it'll be (arguably) the best of the lot going, Gerrit Cole, who leads all of MLB in strikeouts w/ 194. But I also don't project Houston to score much in this game, so Under is the call here. 

At first, I was a little leery of believing in Oakland starter Homer Bailey in this spot. After all, Bailey has a 5.06 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. But that's skewed by one bad one (at Toronto on 6.29) when he was still w/ Kansas City. He's actually allowed 3 ER in six of his last seven starts overall, posting a 2.85 ERA during that time. Bailey also has good career marks vs. Houston as he's 3-0 lifetime against them w/ a 1.46 ERA in eight career efforts. As a member of the Royals, Bailey tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings vs. the Astros back on 6.18.

So Bailey should do just fine here. But the rest of the Oakland lineup should struggled against Cole, who has looked great of late while posting huge strikeout totals. Cole has given up 2 ER or less in 9 of his previous 10 outings, one of those coming against the A's (back on 6.2). In his L2 starts, Cole has 24 K's. He's got a 0.924 WHIP at home this year where his TSR is 9-2. The A's have really struggled to beat the Astros this season as they are 1-7 in eight head to head meetings, plus they've scored two runs or less in six of those games. 8* Under A's/Astros

8* Under Marlins/White Sox (8:10 ET): What a miserable matchup this is for Monday. You've got two of the three lowest scoring teams in baseball here, so I don't think calling for an Under would be unreasonable. For awhile, Miami was looking like they might produce the fewest runs scored in a season since the "Dead Ball Era." Now they're just battling w/ Detroit for fewest runs scored this year. They're still producing only 3.6 rpg and were shutout yday (by the Dodgers). Not too far ahead of them are the White Sox, averaging 4.2 rpg and losers of 8 of 10 games since the Break. Take the Under in this one, folks.

Miami's last two games both went Over as they allowed 19 total runs. But that was against the Dodgers. The White Sox seem incapable of that kind of offensive production as they've topped five runs only once in their last 12 games. I'd issued a "warning" to the Southside as this team is far worse than it's 44-52 record. They've been outscored by 98 runs. That's the same differential as the 36-61 Marlins, who by the way have topped four runs just three times in the L10 games. Yesterday's shutout was the 15th instance of that happening to them this year. 

On paper, this doesn't look like a great starting pitching battle for Monday. But Ivan Nova has strong career numbers vs. Miami. He's a perfect 4-0 w/ a 0.98 ERA in four career starts against them. Also, the last time Nova started here at home, he shut out the Cubs for 5+ innings in a 3-1 win. Meanwhile, the White Sox have never seen Miami starter Trevor Richards, who has done an adequate job pitching for a bad team this season. The Under is 4-1 in Richards' last five road starts and 12-4-1 in the Marlins' L17 road games overall. 8* Under Marlins/White Sox

10* Under Rangers/Astros (2:10 ET): The Astros are going for a three-game sweep here, but to do so they'll have to go through Lance Lynn, who has been the most effective starter this season on the Rangers' staff. Truthfully, he's been one of the better pitchers in the entire American League. Not only is he tied first in wins (12), but he's top five in innings pitched (128) and top eight in strikeouts (140). With a solid history against Houston (1.90 ERA in nine career appearances), I feel he'll be able to keep the Houston lineup in check. As for the Rangers offensively, I don't expect much either. Thus, I'm on the Under here. 

This has been a crushing series to the Rangers, who have now lost six in a row and are 50-48 for the year. They're one of nine teams in the American League currently over .500, but have fallen 6.5 games off the pace in the Wild Card chase. One of the biggest issues has been a lack of offense. They've scored only four runs in this series and just 20 total during the six-game slide. Over the L7 games, they're hitting a collective .189. The one positive here is clearly Lynn, who blanked Houston for seven innings when he faced them right after the All-Star Break. He had 11 strikeouts in that game, a 5-0 Texas win, as well.

Houston's pitching staff seems to be in rough shape, but they got a strong outing from Jose Urquidy yesterday. Texas had only two hits the entire game, one of them an infield single, and 20 of the first 21 batters went back to the dugout. That's encouraging for Rogelio Armenteros, who gets his first start for the 'Stros this afternoon. Armenteros did throw four shutout innings of relief on Tuesday, but will be making his first big league start here. I'm not concerned as Houston has a strong slew of relievers to back him up (if need be) here. 10* Under Rangers/Astros

10* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): The Reds finally got a win in this series by rallying for a 3-2 decision last night. They'd blown leads in each of the first two games, which is somewhat emblematic of the frustrating season that's taken place here in the Queen City as the team is +29 in run differential, yet eight games below .500 and in last place in the Central. The Reds' gap between actual and expected wins right now is -7, making them the biggest underachievers in baseball (at least relative to their run diff). But I think they are certainly capable of earning a series split w/ their mediocre division rival. Take 'em Sunday. 

The Cardinals' Jack Flaherty has been much more effective at home than on the road this season. So that makes him a prime candidate to fade in this spot as he gets the starting nod Sunday. While Flaherty has a 3.22 ERA and 0.937 WHIP at Busch Stadium, those numbers jump to 5.96 and 1.544 on the road where he has a 3-6 TSR. What's interesting w/ Flaherty is that overall he was 4-3 his first nine starts, but is winless (0-3) over his L10. Yet his ERA is pretty much the same in those two stretches. He did throw seven shutout innings vs. Cincinnati back on April 28th, but that was at home.

It's also been awhile since Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani got a win. But in his case, he's long overdue considering he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts. The one bad one was on the road. DeSclafani did go 3-1 w/ a 3.08 ERA in June and has typically pitched very well against the Cardinals in his career. He's 6-2 w/ a 3.32 ERA against them in 13 career appearances. Though the Reds have struggled in day games this year, I think the Cardinals' problems on the road (Flaherty specifically) overrides that. 10* Cincinnati

8* Klidson de Abreu (7:35 ET): UFC on ESPN 4 eminates from San Antonio and this is a three-round fight on the undercard, at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs), which can be seen on ESPN. Both de Abreu and his opponent here, Sam Alvey, are former Middlweights. But the move up a weight class has not really panned out the way Alvey had hoped as he's still too low and not nearly strong enough to overpower his opponents. Back to back TKO losses hardly inspire any confidence at this point and thus I'm taking de Abreu to get his hand raised here. 

Now Abreu isn't exactly on a hot streak either here. He lost his last time out, via unanimous decision, to Magomed Ankalaev. That was back in February, the same month that Alvey last fought. It was Abreu's UFC debut as he'd come into the promotion on a six-fight win streak. At this stage of the game, I think he's got far more left in the tank compared to Alvey, who has already tasted defeat 12 times in his career. 

Abreu should try and get this fight on the ground where his BJJ background will give him the advantage. I think he does just that and earns his first victory inside the Octagon. 8* Klidson de Abreu 

8* Under A's/Twins (7:10 ET): Both of these teams are certainly capable of putting runs on the board. But I think they'll likely struggle to do so tonight, given the starting pitchers they'll be facing. When I took the Over in this matchup Thursday, it was w/ a pitching matchup far more conducive to that outcome. I still came up a couple runs short and then yesterday's game, a 5-3 win by the A's, also stayed Under. Minnesota actually scores fewer runs per game at home than on the road and seven of their last eight games have now stayed Under. Take the Under in this one. 

Jose Berrios has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts for Minnesota, but that's misleading w/ him not giving up more than 3 ER in any of them. Now, Berrios was charged w/ three unearned runs in a June 28th loss to the White Sox. But still, Saturday's starter has given up 3 ER or less in NINE consecutive outings. His last five have all stayed Under and he still has a 2.80 ERA the last seven. He has a 2.32 ERA and 1.104 WHIP for the year at home. Bottom line is I expect Berrios to pitch well tonight. He just held the A's to only three runs in five innings back on July 4th. The Under is 12-4 the L16 times Berrios has started the third game of a series.

While Minnesota has clearly been one of baseball's biggest surprise teams this year, it is Oakland that is the hotter team right now. The A's, a playoff team year ago (many forget that!), have won seven of eight and are now very much a viable Wild Card contender at 14 games over .500 (56-42). Tonight, they'll give the baseball to Brett Anderson, who has a 3-0 TSR w/ a 1.74 ERA and 0.822 WHIP. Also, all three starts have gone Under. He did not face the Twins in the series earlier this month. But Anderson has gone at least six innings in all three starts and never allowed more than 2 ER. He's allowed 3 ER or less in 9 of his L10 starts. 8* Under A's/Twins 

10* Over Royals/Indians (7:10 ET): Cleveland could very well make the playoffs in the American League by virtue of simply beating up on their three lesser division rivals (White Sox, Royals, Tigers). They've swept the Tigers three times in the last month (10-0 record!) and are now 6-1 against the Royals over the same time frame after last night's 10-5 win. Six straight wins have the Tribe a season-high 16 games over .500, but it's been a very easy schedule of late. Last night's game easily went Over the total and looking at this starting pitching matchup, tonight should follow suit. Take the Over here. 

The Indians have scored no fewer than six runs in each of the past five games. I project them to again hit that number Saturday as they'll face Jake Junis, who doesn't exactly have great numbers over his 20 starts this season. It's a 5.08 ERA and 1.421 WHIP for Junis, although he just turned in one of his better efforts by allowing only one run in 7 IP vs. the White Sox. However, the last time he faced Cleveland, things didn't go nearly that well. Junis gave up seven runs and failed to make it out of the fifth inning. He's allowed 11 runs in 10 2/3 IP vs. the Indians this season. In nine career appearances against them, his ERA is 6.24. 

Adam Plutko has a 6-1 team start record for Cleveland, but that's a little bit misleading in light of the fact he also sports a 4.87 ERA. Now his WHIP is a lot better than his ERA, both at home and overall, but we're still looking at a pitcher who is coming off four straight no-decisions. He actually gave up three home runs his last time out, and that was vs. Detroit.  He allowed five runs total in that start and was done after 5 1/3 IP. When he faced KC on 6.24, Plutko lasted just four innings. The Royals have actually scored at least five runs in each of their last six games. If they can get there again (I project they will), then this one goes Over. 10* Over Royals/Indians

10* Saskatchewan (7:00 ET): So I like the total in this matchup as well. But, coming off a bye, I expect the Roughriders to have little difficulty covering the spread. British Columbia is reeling right now as QB Mike Reilly had a nightmare game against his former team, Edmonton, a 33-6 loss at home. The Lions are very lucky not to be 0-4 right now as their lone win came in last second fashion, on a rouge, 18-17 over still winless Toronto. I think a pretty clear case can be made that B.C. is the West's weakest team this year and I'll lay the short number w/ the Roughriders. 

As mentioned above, Saskatchewan is coming off its bye. Perhaps it came at an opportune time as they too are off an embarrassing home loss, theirs coming to Calgary, 37-10 as five-point favorites. That leaves the Riders at just 1-3 SU this year. But their first two losses came by just nine total points. They also dominated Toronto here, 32-7, something B.C. failed to do. A big key for the Riders lies at stopping the run. The first three games all saw them hold the opponent below 100 yds rushing. B.C. has really struggled to run the ball this year w/ only the Toronto game seeing them gain more than 91 yds over land. Three times they've been at 53 yards or less. 

 The Lions are barely averaging over 300 YPG so far. They also are barely averaging 20 PPG. I see the Roughriders having a bounce back game defensively. I realize backup Cody Fajardo struggled two weeks against Calgary, but this is a much weaker opponent he's facing this week. The Riders are 4-1 ATS off a bye and 12-5 ATS off a SU loss. 10* Saskatchewan

10* Under B.C./Saskatchewan (7:00 ET): British Columbia has exactly one win so far and it was at the expense of winless Toronto via a second rouge. After that 18-17 win, the Lions quickly reverted back to previous form by losing last week, 33-6 to Edmonton. That was at home too. It was the Leos' worst loss of the season, at least in terms of margin of victory, and not surprisingly their lowest scoring effort of the year. They've now scored just 24 total points the L2 games. I think they'll continue to struggle to score this week in Saskatoon. Take the Under.

The Roughriders are off their bye. They needed it as they too played their worst game of the year the last time out. Two weeks ago, they were clobbered by Calgary at home. It was a 37-10 loss as five-point chalk. In the case of both teams, it should be pointed out that their last games were on short weeks. Saskatchewan had just four days between home games vs. Toronto and Calgary. The same held true for B.C. between the Toronto and Edmonton games. 

Despite the added rest going into this week's game, especially on the Saskatchewan side, I don't foresee much scoring from either side in this game. Lions QB Mike Reilly had a horrible game against his former team (Edmonton) and that will be tough to shake. Riders backup QB Cody Fajardo really struggled against Calgary, showing he's got a long way to go. While scoring is again up this year in the CFL w/ four teams averaging more than 30 points per game, neither of these two are counted among the quartet. The Under is 11-4-1 in the Riders' last 16 games after a SU loss. The Lions are 7-3-1 L11 in that same role. 10* Under B.C./Saskatchewan 

8* Milwaukee (9:40 ET): While it may seem odd that Jhoulys Chacin and the Brewers are favored in this spot, the fact is that Arizona simply isn't a very good home team. That point was reiterated last night as the D'backs returned to Chase Field off two big offensive games in Texas, and scored just one run in a loss to Brew Crew. I think it goes beyond just the DH (which they got to enjoy having the previous two games) though. At home this year, the D'backs are now 20-23 and see a significant decrease in offensive production, down to 4.4 runs per game from 5.7 on the road. I'm siding w/ the surging visitors in this one. 

Chacin may seem like a bit of a risk here given he's 0-6 his L10 starts and 1-8 on the road this year. He has a 6.38 ERA and 1.63 WHIP away from Miller Park, but recent performances have been much better and would seem to indicate a turnaround is forthcoming. Chacin has allowed just five runs total his L3 starts (16 IP) and has allowed only two runs in each of his past two road starts, including a quality effort at Cincinnati on 7.3. The problem in both of those starts is that the Brewers' offense was shutout. They've since turned it around w/ a three-game win streak, including a 13-run effort Tuesday vs. Atlanta. 

Arizona's Taylor Clarke will be making his first start since July 2nd here. He's been on the DL the last 15 days, but I don't think just time off can cure all that ails him as Clarke has a very poor ERA (6.92) and WHIP (1.692) in his nine starts overall. Again, he shouldn't expect much run support here given the drop off we see from D'backs offense here at home. The Brewers are actually 6-1 vs. the D'backs since the start of last season and what's really incredible is that Arizona hasn't scored more than two runs in any of those seven contests! With Adrian Houser back in a relief role, I like Milwaukee's bullpen alot more now as well. 8* Milwaukee

10* Winnipeg (8:30 ET): The Blue Bombers have emerged as one of the CFL's top teams this year as they are the only unbeaten remaining at 4-0. But that's only part of the reason why they are such prohibitive favorites this week against the REDBLACKS. Thanks to an injury to starting QB Dominque Davis, Ottawa is going w/ Jonathan Jennings at the pivot this week. An offseason signing, Jennings has never started for the Redblacks previous to this. It's a tough spot and to make matters worse, the team is reeling having gone 0-3 SU/ATS the L3 games. Lay the number.

Winnipeg is off to its first 4-0 start in decades. The franchise hasn't started a year 5-0 since 1960 when they went 14-2 and won the Grey Cup. But this group looks to be something special as they've won every game by at least seven points, including 29-14 at Ottawa back in Week 4. The Bombers were actually four-point underdogs in that game, so obviously a lot has changed since then. The biggest is the Redblacks QB situation, but also it's become quite clear that the Bombers are among the league's elite teams this year. (Really, it's either them or Hamilton for #1).

Winnipeg is giving up the fewest points in the league right now (19.7 per game) while also averaging 34.5 PPG themselves. So as you can see, this really is a tough spot for Jennings to come in and make his Ottawa debut. The Redblacks have all of three passing TD's this year and all of them came in the Week 2 win over Sasktachewan. Since then, they've scored only 33 points (at a time when scoring is way up across the CFL) including last week's very disappointing 36-19 home loss to Montreal. Given how the Bombers dominated them the first time around, I can't see how this game goes any better for the Redblacks. 10* Winnipeg

10* Under Red Sox/Orioles (7:05 ET): Baltimore's pitching staff is obviously atrocious, but their best starter is going tonight in what should be an excellent starting pitching matchup overall w/ David Price. John Means is the starter in question here for the O's and he, the team's lone All-Star, has a 3.11 ERA and 1.099 WHIP this season. Means is off his worst outing of the year as he gave up six runs to Tampa Bay in a 12-4 loss, but should bounce back here as the Red Sox aren't hitting like they used to and Means has had prior success against them. Take the Under. 

With the struggles of Chris Sale, Price has become the de facto ace of this Boston rotation. Price is having a really good year as he has a 3.16 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 17 starts. His record is 7-2. Also, Price has really had Baltimore's number through the years. He's 16-5 w/ a 2.65 ERA all-time against them and that include a perfect 8-0 w/ a 2.72 ERA here at Camden Yards. The Red Sox bullpen should be bolstered by the returning Nathan Eovaldi and it's not like Baltimore's hitting is any good either. In five of the six games since the Break, the Orioles have scored 4 runs or less. Three times they've scored two runs or less.

So it's basically all on Means to keep this one competitive, a tough ask seeing as Baltimore is 5-32 the L37 times it has been a home underdog of +175 or more. Boston is 35-9 the L44 times it has been a road fave of -175 or higher. Despite Means struggling his last time out, he still sports a 0.889 WHIP his L3 starts. He's given up 3 ER or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts this season. In three starts against Boston, he's allowed a total of four runs in 17 IP. By the way, Boston won in shutout fashion yday, beating Toronto 5-0. 10* Under Red Sox/Orioles

10* Over A's/Twins (8:10 ET): Minnesota saw its five-game Under streak end yesterday, although it was in the least desirable fashion possible as they lost 14-4 at home to the Mets. Few (if any) predicted that the Twins would have one of the best records in baseball at this point, so perhaps its apropos to see the team on its first three-game losing streak of the season. Tonight, they start a new series w/ the hottest team in baseball, that being Oakland, who has been perfect since the All-Star Break and won six straight overall. I'll be taking the Over in this matchup of AL playoff contenders.

We know the Twins have been carried by one of the top offenses in the game and a starting rotation that's been surprisingly good. But that rotation has started to slip. Kyle Gibson was one of the overachievers pre-All Star Break, but his first start of the second half saw him last just 3 2/3 innings and he allowed three runs. Fortunately, the Twins do average 5.6 runs per game, tied for the most in all of MLB. But they're not the only offense that can score here. Oakland is actually averaging 5.6 rpg on the road this year, which is a top five number in all of baseball. So Gibson is going to have to contend with that. The A's have homered in 17 consecutive contests and have scored nine or more runs in three of their last four games.

Michael Fiers has posted some excellent numbers of late for the A's and gets the starting nod here. But Fiers' numbers come w/ a caveat and that's he's simply not as effective on the road. His ERA and WHIP both jump considerably, to 5.76 and 1.345 respectively. The Under may be 8-2 when Fiers pitches at home, but the Over is 6-3 when he pitches on the road. His L6 starts have all stayed Under, but I expect him to struggle tonight. 10* Over A's/Twins

8* Under Dodgers/Phillies (12:35 ET): The NL West-leading Dodgers have had their way w/ the Phillies in 2019 (5-1 head to head) and they've had no problem piling up runs in this series. They've crossed the plate 31 times in the three games so far, starting w/ a 16-2 beatdown in Monday's opener. They lost Tuesday, 9-8, but quickly bounced back w/ a 7-2 win last night. While LA can lay claim to the best win percentage in all of baseball (.653), the Phillies' freefall has continued in the second half where they've now lost four of six. I'm taking the Under in this game.

It's quick turnaround for the teams after last night's game didn't end until 1:42 am local time. They can thank a 2 hour, 37 min rain delay for that. Six Dodgers pitchers combined on a two-hitter and Philly's only runs came in the sixth. Ross Stripling will be counted on heavily here as he gets the start for Dodger Blue. His last time out, Stripling allowed just one run on four hits in 5 IP. He faces a Phillies lineup that has scored four or fewer runs in five of its last six games. This is an ideal matchup for Stripling, who has already seen the Under go 6-1-1 his L8 starts. 

But if Philadelphia has an "ace in the hole" here, it would be starter Aaron Nola, who has been lights out of late. Nola has a 0.76 ERA his L5 starts having allowed only 3 ER in 35 2/3 IP! He's the first Phillies pitcher to allow 1 ER or less in five straight starts since Cole Hamels pulled it off back in 2014. The Dodgers have not had to face Nola previously here in 2019, which has worked to their advantage, but this should easily end up as their lowest scoring game of the series. As for the Phillies, the Under is 19-4-4 the last 27 times they've played a 4th game in a series. 8* Under Dodgers/Phillies

8* Under Padres/Marlins (12:10 ET): Prior to last night, every game played this year between the Padres and Marlins either went Over or pushed. But last night's 3-2 win by the Padres bucked that trend and I'm expecting another low-scoring game this afternoon as the teams wrap up this series. Miami took Tuesday's opener by a score of 12-7, but that's in no way indicative of what we expect them to produce at the plate on a nightly basis. The Marlins remain the NL's lowest scoring team (at 3.7 rpg) and the Padres aren't too far ahead. Take the Under here. 

Last night's win by San Diego snapped a four-game losing streak. They got a brilliant start from Chris Paddack, who took a no-hitter into the eighth. Miami ended up scoring twice, once in the eighth and once in the ninth, but it hardly mattered. The Padres got all three of their runs in one inning, two of them coming on one swing of the bat. Note Tuesday's game is the only time this month than San Diego has topped five runs. Both previous starts made by Tuesday starter Dinelson Lamet have stayed Under and after he faced both the Braves and Dodgers, this should be a relative "walk in the park" for Lamet. 

The Padres are actually a higher scoring team on the road, but today sees them running into Miami's Caleb Smith, who has been incredibly effective here at home. Smith is 4-1 here w/ a 1.53 ERA and 0.962 WHIP. His effectiveness has led to trade rumors, though the Marlins are denying them. Smith has held opposing hitters to a .197 average and .267 OBP w/ a 94-26 KW rate in 78 IP. So I expect the San Diego offense to be held in check tonight. Lamet was once thought of as the future ace of the Padres' rotation and this shapes up as a good old fashioned pitchers' duel. 8* Under Padres/Marlins

10* Under Tigers/Indians (7:05 ET): Cleveland is a massive ML favorite here and why wouldn't they be? After an 8-0 shutout last night, they are now 10-1 against the Tigers in 2019 and there's no reason to believe the home team won't win again tonight. Detroit is a truly wretched outfit this season as their poor 29-61 record only begins to tell the story of a team that has been outscored by 169 runs. They are dead last in all of baseball in runs scored. I can't possibly play Cleveland at the current price, but I can play the Under and will! 

Now some of you may recall that I played the Over in Monday's series opener. That game ended up being an 8-6 final. So the Indians have scored eight runs in both games so far, but I'm looking for a lower offensive output today. Spencer Turnbull starts tonight for the Tigers and he's actually been one of their better pitchers, particularly on the road where his ERA is 3.14. Seven of Turnbull's nine road starts have stayed Under. He allowed only two runs on five hits the last time he pitched here at Progressive Field.

The Tigers have been shutout nine times this year, four by the Indians and incredibly three of those four shutouts have come in Turnbull starts! It figures to be another long night at the plate for the visitors as they are to face Mike Clevinger, a 200+ strikeout pitcher from a year ago who has a 0.53 ERA and 0.706 in three home starts this season. He's allowed just one run and six hits in those three starts, which have spanned 17 IP. Not only were the Tigers shut out last night, they had only one hit. There's no reason to believe they'll do much offensively tonight and the Indians should have this one wrapped up w/o having to play the bottom of the ninth. 10* Under Tigers/Indians

8* Under Giants/Rockies (3:10 ET): I've had some success playing totals at Coors Field over the last week. Given the reputation of the ballpark, you'd figure I'd be inclined to bet the Over and that's precisely what I did w/ last week's top O/U release as the Rockies and Reds combined for 26 runs here (Rockies LOST 19-7). But the Rockies haven't done much scoring in their current series, totaling only seven runs in three games against the Giants. As a result, they're 0-3, including an 8-4 loss last night. I'm on the Under today as the Rockies look to avoid the sweep.

Last night's final score is misleading in the sense that the game went to extra innings (Giants scored 4 in the 10th) and was a 2-1 game heading into the 8th. The Rockies tied things up at 4-4 w/ a three-run ninth, but it was not to be as they lost for a third time in two days to San Francisco. The teams played a doubleheader Monday w/ the Giants winning 19-2 and 2-1. So as you can see, Colorado really hasn't done much scoring. Until the ninth inning yday, they'd scored only four runs in 26 innings against Giants pitching. Yet the total is still really high today. 

The good news for Colorado today is that they have Jon Gray on the mound. He has a 4-1 record and 3.26 ERA in eight starts at Coors this season, which is quite respectable. It's not like the Giants have a strong lineup. Game 1 of the doubleheader on Monday was a complete aberration. While there's been a recent increase in scoring, they still rank 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS. The Under is 7-1 in those eight home starts made by Gray as well. Facing a rookie making his Coors debut (Shaun Anderson), the Rockies will probably score more today. But not enough to send this one Over. 8* Under Giants/Rockies