10* Toledo (7:00 ET): This is not only a revenge spot for UT, but also Senior Night and their last chance to "stop the bleeding" before next week's MAC Tournament. Back to back outright losses, to Central & Western Michigan, have the Rockets reeling right now and another loss here could result in them finishing as low as fifth in the West Division. Or they could possibly finish as high as third. It's all about taking care of an Eastern Michigan squad that beat them earlier this year, 91-85, a game where the Eagles shot a preposterous 68% from the field. Yes, you read that correctly. Needless to say, I don't see "history repeating itself" here as the Eagles are significantly worse on the road due to their awful defense.  Lay the points in this one. 

Lost in Toledo losing the first meeting is that they themselves shot the ball; 50.8% overall including 7 of 17 from three-point range. They finished w/ 85 points. But it wasn't nearly enough as Eastern Michigan made 34 of the 50 field goal attempts they took including an incredible 11 of 16 three-pointers. The thing is, Toledo isn't generally that bad of a defensive team. Here at home, they are allowing just 68 PPG (71.3 PPG allowed overall).  Without question, it was the Rockets' worst effort of the season on that end of the floor. Conversely, it was not just EMU's best offensive performance of the season, but also the best any Eagles team has shot in program history. There's no real way to explain what happened on February 20th except to say "it was one of those games."

Take the Eagles outside of Ypsilanti and they are simply not a very good basketball team. They are 3-11 ATS (3-10 SU) in road games.  We've already established that the offense is guaranteed to decline from the first meeting, but what about EMU's defense? Well, in their last road game they gave up 115 points and lost by 36 at Ball State. Defense has been an issue all season for this team as they allow 84.4 PPG away from home. Thanks to a three-pointer w/ just 24 seconds remaining, the Eagles were able to pull out a close win (at home) over Northern Illinois on Tuesday. But they are just 2-5 SU and ATS coming off a conference win this year. While Eastern Michigan was winning close Tuesday, Toledo blew a six point lead w/ nine minutes to go on the road at Western Michigan and lost by six. A season-high 23 turnovers were the clear culprit there and that should not be repeated. The bottom line though is the Rockets are much better than their record shows. Yes, they've lost four of five, but all of the games were close and in there they did beat division leader Ball State. I think it's pertinent to point out that they were favored in Ypsilanti last month, so this line looks like a great value. Consider that UT has outscored its opponents by 13.9 PPG here at home this season. 10* Toledo

8* Indiana (7:05 ET):  Throughout this season, I've been making the case that Charlotte is far better than they're being given credit for. Lately, their play has backed up that assertion. Since Feb 5th, they've won 8 of 10 and that includes a narrow 96-95 victory (as 4-pt dogs) over tonight's opponent, Indiana. But lately, the Hornets have also been fortunate. Not just because Kemba Walker hit a GW shot w/ 2.4 seconds remaining at Indiana last Saturday, but also in that their last two opponents were the Suns and Sixers. The result there was the best back to back performances in franchise history as never before had we seen a Hornets team win by 20+ point margins on consecutive nights. The task is certainly harder this evening, and though Charlotte is at home, Indiana has revenge and is likely to be the better team here. Take the points.

I'm coming off a win with the Pacers in their last game, which was a 104-99 (-2) decision at Milwaukee on Wednesday. That victory snapped a three-game losing streak for them and as I wrote in my analysis this team simply performs much better in conference games. They are now 24-12 ATS vs. the rest of the East after covering two nights ago. That record would be even better w/o a pair of outright losses to the Hornets (both at home). This being a double revenge spot, where both losses occurred over the past month, I'd expect a focused effort from Paul George and company here. Note that Indiana has NEVER been swept in a season series by Charlotte.

While I've "defended" the Hornets as a legit playoff contender for much of the year, the fact is right now their stock is actually a bit too high.  I go back to the fact they got to play two of the worst teams in the league to open March. Neither the Suns nor Sixers could manage to shoot better than 40% from the floor while Charlotte averaged 122.5 PPG against two bad defenses.  Looking back to those first two Pacers-Hornets matchups, the difference was that Charlotte was able to make three-pointers while Indiana could not. The former went 23 of 57 from behind the arc while the latter was 8 for 37. I look for the "script to be flipped" here and Indiana to build off Wednesday's win where seven players scored in double figures. 8* Indiana

8* Arizona State (11:00 ET):  This is a revenge spot for the Sun Devils, who lost by only two (as two-point dogs) in Palo Alto on January 23rd.  Given that result, you would figure that they would be asked to lay more in the rematch tonight in Tempe. But your would have figured wrong as ASU is off four straight losses here, the last three all coming on the road, making them extremely undervalued in my estimation.  Meanwhile, Stanford is off B2B home wins as 1-pt underdogs (both games) over USC and UCLA, the latter allowing them to shoot a blistering 61.2% from the floor.  That won't be repeated here as the Cardinal are a pretty woeful 2-6 SU and ATS on the road. Buy low/sell high!  Take the Sun Devils.

Not only did ASU just lose three straight on the road, but they were blown out every time. There was a 38-point loss at Arizona, a 35-point loss at Utah and 10 pt loss at Colorado. Yikes! Granted, they were double digit dogs in all two of those games (not Colorado), but still they should have performed better.  Perhaps a return home is all they need as they average 78.5 PPG here and are 10-5 SU. Even after getting blown out three straight times, YTD numbers still indicate that this is a pretty competitive team, one that has been been outscored by less than a point per game overall.  In the first matchup with Stanford, they lost on a last second shot (w/ just 3.2 seconds to play), so there's no shame there.

Just like ASU is not as bad as they've looked recently, Stanford is not as good as recent performances might seem to indicate. While they've won four of five overall, before that they had lost four in a row (also 0-4 ATS).  That shooting percentage against UCLA was pretty astounding. Not only was it (again, 61.2%!) a season-high but it also marked just the second time since the second game of the season that the Cardinal topped 50%!  Wanna bet it drops tonight? On the road, this team shoots just 39.2 percent, including 27.5% from three-point range, so the corresponding poor record is not a shock or any kind of fluke. In their last road game, they scored just 53 points in a double-digit loss to Washington.  8* Arizona State

8* Marist (9:00 ET):  This is a first round matchup in the MAAC Tournament, which will be hosted by the #3 seed Siena.  What's interesting here about the #6 (Manhattan) vs. #11 (Marist) matchup is that is expected to be closer than either the #8 vs. #9 or #7 vs. #10 matchups.  Manhattan and Marist exchanged victories during the regular season, each winning on the others floor, which is odd because neither squad was particularly good away from home overall.  Early money came in on the underdog Red Foxes, probably because it isn't often that Manhattan is actually favored and the Jaspers closed the regular season w/ three consecutive losses. One of those saw them let me down, as seven-point home dogs vs. Iona. I've learned my lesson. Take the points here.

Marist, meanwhile, is off B2B wins. Both were at home, but encouraging is that each was decided by a double digit margin as they easily covered the spread.  That was a nice change of pace for a team that has suffered a number of close losses throughout the year. Seven times this season, the Red Foxes have lost by four points or less, which is a stark contrast to having just two wins in such contests.  They come off perhaps their best game all season, a 91-77 win over Quinnipiac, as they shot 56.4% from the floor.  Typically, I might want to fade a team coming off such a performance, but the conference tournament setting nullifies that mentality, plus you have the fact that the Red Foxes had the weekend off, giving them two extra days to prepare here.

Manhattan's regular season did not conclude until Sunday when they were beaten 60-57 by Rider.  At least they left w/ the cash as six-point dogs in that one. But the bottom line is the Jaspers have covered the spread just one time in conference play when laying more than a basket!  With the winner of this game being matched up w/ tourney host Siena tomorrow, it won't be a long stay for the winner, but the bottom line here is I expect Marist to pull the upset, something they were able to do at Manhattan earlier this year.  8* Marist

8* Eastern Washington (9:05 ET):  Eastern Washington is a team w/ one of the strongest home court edges in the entire country. I mean, it's pretty ridiculous what they've been able to accomplish this season in Cheney. Not only are they a perfect 10-0 straight up, but their average margin of victory is an astounding 23.4 points per game here. This isn't the first time I've played the Eagles at home this year; I had them in a 10-point win over North Dakota back on Feb 11.  That was actually one of their closest decisions of the year and now being off B2B road losses, EWU should be set to "explode" at the expense of Big Sky also-ran Idaho State. Lay the number.

EWU actually played its last three games on the road. The trip started out well w/ a 93-88 win and cover over Sacramento State. But then they forgot to pack their defense in a 107-91 loss at Portland State, a game that saw them trailing by 20 at halftime.  Saturday marked a frustrating effort at the offensive end of the floor as they scored only 62 points in a four-point loss.  Keep in mind that the Eagles are #5 in offensive efficiency in the entire country. After shooting just 43 percent overall vs. Idaho, including 0 for 7 from three-point range, they should absolutely improve here at home where they average a whopping 96 PPG!  Not only does the team average 12 made three-pointers per game at home, but they are shooting 55.4% overall from the floor for the season!

Idaho State actually has the same conference record as EWU, but as this line illustrates, the Eagles' home court edge is quite significant and far more important than the respective 10-6 SU records in Big Sky play. Idaho State checks in off a 76-69 win over Montana State, but note that was a tie game w/ five minutes left.  The Bengals made 10 three-pointers, more than we're accustomed to seeing from them, and not only is EWU's home court edge very significant but it is compounded by the fact the visitors here are just 4-9 SU in "true" road games this season. The Bengals of Idaho State see their offensive numbers decline significantly away from home and simply lack the firepower to compete tonight.  8* Eastern Washington

10* Arizona (9:00 ET):  This is a big revenge spot for #18 Arizona (lost by one at Cal on Jan 23rd), who is off B2B losses to boot. I was on Cal in the season's first meeting, as they were 2.5-point dogs in Berkeley where they have still yet to taste defeat at home all season long (18-0 SU).  Following that upset, the Bears would drop B2B games. But they've since won and covered seven in a row, strengthening their case to be at worst an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament. But while they have won at both Washington schools during that stretch, the fact is the team is still just 3-6 SU in "true" road games and the McKale Center in Tuscon is a place where only one visitor (Oregon, this year) has triumphed in the last 54 tries. Lay the points.

This game caught my eye quickly, not just because Arizona is at home and off B2B losses, but also due to the fact the line jumped almost immediately.  Clearly, I am not the only one anticipating Sean Miller's team to bounce back in this spot. Given that the Wildcats don't just win here, but regularly blow visitors out (+20.4 PPG at home), it's certainly a reasonable assertion to have. The two losses on the road last week (at Colorado, Utah) both came by single digits as have all others this season. In fact, five of the seven have been by four points or less.  So, let's not go writing this team off just yet.  Though they lost the first time to Cal, it's not as if they played poorly. Also, that game saw them take the court w/o their leading scorer, freshman Allonzo Trier.  Coming off a game-high 23 pts at Utah over the weekend, Trier's presence tonight should make a big difference. 

Cal averages roughly 8.5 points per game less on the road compared to at home.  That clearly plays a role in their striking home vs. road dichotomy.  There is no denying that this team's stock is really high right now, especially right after blowing out USC over the weekend. But, as my regular clients will attest to, I often choose to "sell high" on a team and that's the opportunity we have here. This is Cal's toughest game of the entire Pac 12 slate and Arizona comes in with an extra day to prepare. The difference in the Bears defensive numbers (home vs. road) is just as severe as the offensive numbers.  10* Arizona

8* Phoenix (7:35 ET):  This is a real "hold your nose" and take the points kind of situation as since Christmas no team in the league has been worse than the Suns and you're probably all too aware of that. But taking both theirs and Miami's last game into account, we've got to be getting some sort of regression to the mean on both sides. Phoenix was absolutely clobbered on Tuesday, losing by 34 to Charlotte. That's pretty inexcusable, but when you consider the team was off its first win in more than a month, I suppose its understandable. Meanwhile, Miami just shot an insane 67.5% from the floor (not a misprint!) in its last game, a 129-111 win over Chicago. The Heat only average 97.5 PPG (one of the lowest marks in the league), so that kind of offensive showing is highly irregular and the idea of them laying double digits their next time out sounds a bit "iffy" to me.  Take the points.

Make no mistake about it - Miami is playing well right now. They've covered six of seven, winning five of those games straight up and one of the two losses was to Golden State. But that certainly doesn't disqualify them from potentially being undervalued for this contest.  Remember that they are still w/o Chris Bosh (blood clot).  This will be just the second time all year that they've been favored by more than 12.5 points. They failed the first time, beating Philadelphia by only five back in November. In fact, since that time, they have been double digit dogs three times, which is three times more than they've been double digit favorites (0). After scoring 105+ points the previous game, the Heat are just 4-7 ATS their next time out.

There's no sugarcoating how bad Phoenix has been on the road this season (4-24 straight up!), but they probably won't be any worse here than Chicago was on Tuesday against the Heat. Consider that Miami ranks dead last in the league in three-point percentage (31.9%), but made half of their attempts from behind the arc against the Bulls.  Some of the improvement is owed to the Joe Johnson acquisition, but still I see them regressing here. For Phoenix, things can't possibly be worse than they were in the last game. They'll stay within the number, which has actually come down despite the majority of bets being on the Heat (smart money alert!) 8* Phoenix

10* Buffalo (7:05 ET): Rarely, if ever, do the Sabres get my highest rating. But here they draw a fellow bottom feeder (Calgary) that has lost six in a row and will be playing its third road game in four nights. Overall, the Flames have won just one of their L10 games and eight of the nine losses have occurred in regulation.  As written about previously (in Monday's 5-3 win on the Flyers), it should not be a surprise that this team is performing so poorly. They rank next to last in the league in goals scored per game and on the power play, plus their penalty killing unit is also dead last.  I won't make the case that Buffalo is any kind of elite club, but I do like how they've allowed two or fewer goals in seven of the last eight games.

Only the Maple Leafs have fewer home victories than the Sabres, but fortunately for them the Flames happen to have the second fewest number of road victories in the league. Now, Buffalo is off a disappointing 2-1 loss here to Edmonton on Tuesday, which came in overtime. They were outshot there, 41-32, but Robin Lehner was again outstanding in getting his team to OT. Tonight, it's looking more like it will be Chad Johnson, but he too has been strong of late, particularly in a win last Friday at San Jose. Back to the home ice advantage, Buffalo has beaten Calgary here 9 of the last 11 meetings, which is pretty significant. Assuming they can take advantage of the Flames' poor defensive numbers, I see that streak continuing

How bad has the Flames' goaltending been? Well, they've allowed at least five goals in five of their last nine losses. The damage wasn't quite that bad Tuesday, but nevertheless it was a 2-1 loss in Boston anyway. Allowing that few goals and still losing has to be frustrating. Likely starter Jonas Hiller has an .866 save percentage his L4 starts. The team is also 6-11 SU after scoring one or zero goals its previous game. I think this play ultimately boils down to the fact it's a very cheap price to go against the league's second worst road team.  That says value to me.  10* Buffalo

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  Here's a real rarity. Edmonton has won B2B games. Such an occurrence hadn't happened since the club's first two games in February, so we're talking basically one month's time. They only did it twice in January as well and at no time in the year 2016 have they won three in a row. In fact, you have to go all the way back to the start of December (when they won a season-high six in a row) to find a win streak longer than the one they're currently on.  Only one other time previously, all the way back in mid-October, had they won at least three straight. So, in my opinion, that makes the Oilers excellent "fade material" tonight as they visit Philadelphia, who happens to be on a three-game win streak itself.

Unlike the Oilers, the Flyers still find themselves fighting for a playoff berth. They are only three points back of Pittsburgh for the second of two Wild Cards after beating Minnesota, Arizona and Calgary all here at home. The favorable stretch of games continues here with a visit from the worst road team in the league (and on Saturday, they'll get last place Columbus here).  So, in no way, should Philly be throwing in the towel on the season. They certainly have not been lacking for offense of late as they've averaged 3.7 goals per game over their last seven and totaled 12 during this three-game win streak of theirs. Defensively, they're giving up just an average of just 26.2 shots the last five games, which obviously makes life easier on their goaltenders.

Consider that before winning their last two games, Edmonton had dropped seven in a row and 10 of 11.  Now over the last 13, they've still managed to score more than three goals only one time, a 5-2 win over Toronto back on Feb 11th.  Not only are they 26th in the league in goals scored, but they are 26th in goals allowed as well.  Goaltender Cam Talbot has really come on of late, but his overall save percentage for the year says that "regression is in the cards."  Interestingly, the team's record w/o Connor McDavid was actually better than with him and this is the team he got injured against back in November, so perhaps he'll be a little tentative tonight. For the record, the Oilers have dropped 25 of 33 road games this season.  8* Philadelphia

8* UCLA (9:00 ET):  UCLA is a team whose stock is considered to be "down" right now as the Bruins have dropped B2B games (both on the road), not to mention five of their last seven, leaving the team's NCAA Tournament status tenuous at best. With a 15-14 SU record, it looks increasingly likely that they will have to win the Pac 12 Tournament just to make the Big Dance. But while tonight offers up a challenge, it's also a big opportunity to break through. Oregon, currently alone in first place in the conference, comes calling and this is not just a revenge spot, but Senior Night as well. Given UCLA did not play many home games in February (just two), I expect motivation to be high here and an upset to be pulled.  Take the points.

Looking at the two times the Bruins got to play in Pauley Pavillion last month, one resulted in a two-point loss (to Utah) and the other was a 20-pt win over Colorado. They've since lost at Cal and Stanford, the latter coming Saturday as one-point favorites. The two road games in three days scenario is brutal in the Pac 12, so I wasn't surprised to see the week go so badly. Note, however, that at home UCLA is 10-4 straight up and outscoring opponents by 9.3 points per game.  That includes 2-0 SU and ATS as a dog with those upsets coming at the expense of Arizona and Kentucky (quite impressive!). They let Stanford shoot 61.5% Saturday. As good as Oregon might be, they are highly unlikely to match that kind of shooting tonight.

Teams at the top of the polls have been losing to unranked opponents at a historic pace this season, at least when they're on the road. Oregon, now in the top 10, has a losing road record this season (3-5 straight up) and was clobbered in a similar spot last month at California, losing by 20. I was on the Bears there and then the Ducks would follow that loss up w/ another, this time by four at Stanford.  They've rebounded with three straight wins, but all were at home (where they are 18-0 SU) against double digit underdogs. Though they won the first meeting vs. UCLA by 14, I do not believe they should be favored here.  UCLA has not lost three consecutive Pac 12 games since 2010.  8* UCLA

8* San Antonio (8:05 ET):  Though I figure the Spurs must soon fall from their lofty ATS perch (league-best 37-22), it won't be here. Unless you've been under a rock for the duration of the season, the Spurs unblemished 28-0 SU home record is not news. Best of all is that when you subtract the two games this year in which they were an underdog (obviously, both on the road) that ATS record jumps to 37-20. That includes 7-1 when in this price range (-9 to -12.5) at home, so I'd argue that it's the Pistons, not the Spurs, that come in overvalued for this one. The reason being Detroit has won and covered four straight, including upsets of the top two teams in the East (Cleveland & Toronto). But the road has been unkind to SVG's troops as they are just 13-18 SU/ATS outside the Motor City.  Lay the points.

These teams met not that long ago (January 12th) and the Spurs won 109-99 as 6.5-point favorites.  That's pretty significant considering how good the Pistons have been at home. Also, using that line as our baseline, the number here should clearly be higher, especially seeing as San Antonio covered that first meeting.  I expect Detroit to really struggle to score here. They shot just 41.8% against the Spurs the first go-around and are one of the worst shooting teams in the league overall. In terms of "true shooting percentage" (which weighs free throw and 3-pt attempts), only the Lakers are worse. I probably don't have to tell you that San Antonio is #1 in the league in terms of defensive efficiency by a pretty wide margin. Here at home (where their avg MOV = 16.1 PPG), they give up only 90.4 PPG. 

It's important to note that Detroit did not have to contend with Toronto's Kyle Lowry (rest) in the last game. Also, they shot a season-best 58% from the floor (also season-high in assists w/ 28).  Those numbers will almost surely decline tonight as they aren't going to be making 12 three-pointers again.  In many ways, Sunday was one of the Pistons' best games all season. The difference for the Spurs is that those kind of performances are more commonplace. Back at home for the first time since before the All-Star Break ("Rodeo Road Trip" complete!), they should come out very strong here in a nationally televised contest.  8* San Antonio

8* Indiana (8:05 ET): After coming up short in three straight, including a tough loss in Cleveland to start the week, the Pacers should be a team focused on winning Wednesday night in Milwaukee. They'll find a Bucks team in off a surprising win, 128-121 (+3) over Houston, that was exciting yet that kind of performance will be hard to duplicate. The Rockets are just atrocious defensively and the Bucks were able to take advantage by topping 30 points in three of the four quarters, including 36 in the critical fourth. Indiana has not lost four in a row at any point in the season, going 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS when off three straight defeats, and given the short number in play here, I'm willing to lay it.

The Pacers really let me down Sunday when they lost at home to Portland, 111-102. But playing w/o rest in Cleveland (who was off a bad loss itself Sunday), they showed me something in sticking with the favored Cavaliers, losing only 100-96 as eight-point dogs.  Were it not for Lebron James, Indiana probably wins that game, which they led by four w/ just under five minutes left. Though they've now lost five straight division road games, the fact remains the Pacers are 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the Central this year. Also important to note is their 23-12 ATS record vs. the entire East. For whatever reason, this team performs much better against the opponents that "they know."

These teams are certainly familiar with one another as it will be the third meeting of the season. They split two games in Indiana w/ the Pacers winning the first in blowout fashion (by 37!), but losing the second by four.  Milwaukee shot 58.4% in their win, similar to the 59.3 FG% they turned in vs. the Rockets. But often times we will see a team come back "down to Earth" following such a hot-shooting performance and that's what I anticipate here. A new starting lineup has breathed some much-needed life into these Bucks, but I seriously doubt Giannis Antetokounmpo is going for a triple double in B2B games.  Even after winning five of eight, Milwaukee remains "out of it," a full six games back of the Pacers.  8* Indiana

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): I was surprised to find Detroit ranking higher than Chicgao in both Corsi and Fenwick given where the Blackhawks are in the standings, but also due to the fact the Red Wings have actually been outscored this season.  Though off three consecutive victories, the Wings find themselves in fourth in the Atlantic, which is where they belong. This team is not a serious threat in the East, at least in my estimation, and their status as a "non-contender" will be exposed here by the reigning Stanley Cup Champs, who certainly have not forgotten getting swept LY by their old division rivals. The 'Hawks have won 17 of their last 25 overall, including an impressive win over Washington (#1 team in the league) on Sunday. Take them here.

Coming off a non-conference game, the Blackhawks are a ridiculous 21-4 this season. Yes, they are a more dangerous team at home, but other than LA or San Jose, who isn't? It was a 5-3 win at the Rangers not that long ago and the team's last "road" game should essentially be disregarded as it was an outdoor affair (at Minnesota). Tonight marks the front end of a home and home (well, Chicago has to play Boston in between) with the Wings and spirits should be high given the history between the two clubs. Beating Washington despite only 23 shots on goal is really impressive when you think about it and at the other end of the ice, I'll continue to "hang my hat" on Corey Crawford, whose 33 wins and .928 save percentage should speak for itself.

Detroit won at Dallas on Leap Day, which is pretty impressive, but then again the Stars seem to be trending in the wrong direction right now. The Wings themselves were going "nowhere fast" as they'd lost four in a row before a 2-1 win over lowly Columbus last week. That started a three-game win streak (also won at Colorado 5-3 Saturday), but two of the wins (Columbus, Dallas) both came beyond regulation when they were outshot for the game. Giving up 41 shots to the Stars, who are admittedly a powerful offensive team, is troubling nonetheless and given my lack of faith in the Wings, it only makes sense to fade them here. Goalie Petr Mrazek has managed to go 3-1-1 despite a 3.24 GAA over that time frame, so he's due to lose. 10* Chicago

10* Chicago (7:05 ET):  I've been writing off the Bulls as any kind of legit contender in the East for some time now, but now things have reached the point of crisis as Fred Hoiberg's outfit has dropped three in a row and is no longer in the top eight in the Conference. Point differential says this is no fluke as they are being outscored by 1.3 points per 100 possessions over the course of the season, worse than every team in the top eight.  But, now in full on desperation mode, I'm going to back them plus the points tonight in Orlando.  The Magic, like the Bulls, lost yday and haven't been playing particularly well of late. Sure,they have two wins over the last six games, but that's because they were lucky enough to play Philadelphia twice. Road teams are often undervalued in the second of B2B games and that's what we have here.

Orlando has covered seven of the last eight times these teams have played. That includes a 92-87 loss early this season where they were taking eight. That game now seems like "forever ago" and the bottom line is that after opening the season 21-9 ATS, the Magic are just 11-17-1 ATS their last 29 games.  As a favorite, a role they've been in more than you might think, the YTD record is a very respectable 15-5 SU/12-8 ATS. But that's come at the expense of facing a lot of bad teams. For example, Philadelphia, whom they beat handily twice in the last week or so. Defense, or rather lack of it, is becoming a major issue for Scott Skiles, who has watched his team allow 118 PPG its last five. Four of those five games, including Philly twice, have seen the opponent score 115 or more. Dallas shot a season-best 56 percent against the Magic last night en route to 121 points. Over the L26 games, Orlando has allowed an average of 107.1 PPG.

Of course, Chicago has its own issues defensively.  In what Pau Gasol rightly termed a "terrible effort," the team allowed Miami to shoot a preposterous 67.5%(!) from the floor, the highest percentage in any NBA game since 2010.  The Heat are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, but finished the game w/ a season-best 129 points.  As bad as that may sound, there's no way Orlando can be any better and given their own recent form, they make an ideal matchup for the Bulls. In games where the total is 210+, the Bulls are 4-1 ATS this season. 10* Chicago

10* Duquesne (7:00 ET): Hardly a "marquee" game on the Wednesday slate, this matchup of A-10 also-rans offers some solid value.  Duquesne plays its final home game and you have to figure they'll be desperate. If they don't win here, then it likely will be a nine-game losing streak entering the Conference Tourney due to having to travel to St. Joe's this weekend. Yes, despite seven straight losses, the Dukes are actually favored here. I like this play because Fordham, perennially the worst team the A-10 has to offer, has actually won three of its last four including an upset of Davidson its last time out. So, the value here resides in going against the Rams, who have not been off B2B wins since playing a very weak non-conference slate. Lay the short number.

In fact, this is the first time we find Fordham off B2B wins in the A-10 all year. Last Wednesday, they found themselves in the rare role of favorite, playing last place LaSalle. The Rams won there, albeit barely, as the final score was 56-53 (laying 3). Note that LaSalle is very bad and easily the worst team in the conference this season. Saturday, however, saw the Rams down a pretty good Davidson team, 91-82 as four-point home dogs. All five starters scored in double figures and the team shot better than 51% from the floor, their highest percentage in a game since facing Richmond on January 10th. Needless to say, we should see a decline here. On the road this season, Fordham is 2-7 straight up and being outscored by 9.9 points per game. One of the wins was at LaSalle, the other at UMass, who also stinks.

I'm not going to make the case that Duquesne is any kind of "world-beater," but most of their recent losses have been close (five by single digits, three by four pts or less). Unfortunately, they ran into Richmond (off three straight losses) at the wrong time and lost 83-67 (line was pick 'em!) Saturday.  The Dukes typically have no problems scoring here at home; they average 83.5 PPG on 47% shooting.  Richmond came out really hot & defense is a bit of a concern, but not here w/ Fordham only averaging 63.1 PPG on 40.1% shooting away from home.  It's Senior Night and that always adds to the motivation, something the Dukes should already not be lacking in, given the long losing streak. 10* Duquesne

10* New Mexico (9:30 ET): The famed "Pit" in Albuquerque has long been known as one of, if not the, most difficult venue to play at in the Mountain West. Despite a down year for New Mexico, that statement continues to hold true as the Lobos are 12-3 straight up at home. But that's including a loss in their last game, 92-82 to Fresno State as 6.5-point favorites.  That loss, the team's third straight overall, came about despite shooting at a 53.2% clip and leading scorer Elijah Brown contributing a career-high 41 points.  What went wrong? Aside from allowing 51 second half points, the Lobos turned the ball over 18 times. On Senior Night, as a rare home dog, I expect them to bounce back though. 

San Diego State, who already has the MWC regular season title all wrapped up, is also off an outright loss here. They too were 6.5-point favorites when they fell (by three) to Boise State over the weekend, at home.  It was just their second loss in the last 16 games and it came in spectacular fashion as the Broncos erased a nine-point deficit w/ less than two minutes remaining. That was the Aztecs first game since clinching the regular season crown, by the way. Remember that the conference is way down this year. That doesn't mean that New Mexico isn't a worthy challenger here though, if anything, the Lobos should be highly motivated to avenge a seven-point loss from last month. The line there was only -5, so I don't really understand why the home team isn't favored again here. 

Furthermore, that first meeting went to overtime and that was only after SDSU rallied back from a five-point deficit w/ just over 20 seconds to go in regulation! There was a controversial call on an inbounds pass that went the Aztecs way and the result was them getting the ball back and then tying the game up with a three-pointer.  I mentioned earlier that New Mexico has now lost three straight following Saturday and they have actually been the favorite in all three of those games!  They also will be motivated here by the fact they've lost three straight times to the Aztecs. "Funny things" tend to happen on Senior Night and the Lobos do average more than 80 PPG at home. San Diego State does not tend to shoot the ball well on the road. 10* New Mexico

8* Iowa (9:00 ET):  This is a rematch. In the first meeting, which was in Bloomington obviously, I played Indiana. That play won and unforeseeable at the time is that it would begin a downward spiral for the Hawkeyes that has seen them drop four of five (0-5 ATS) w/ the lone win coming by four over lowly Minnesota. They have lost three in a row outright as favorites, including their first and only home loss (to Wisconsin) last Wednesday. That was followed up by losing at Ohio State, 68-64, on Sunday. Stock is down in Iowa City right now, but you know me, that makes it the perfect opportunity to "buy low" here. Indiana is off a big win last Thursday (had the weekend off), guaranteeing itself at least a share of the Big 10 regular season crown, but I don't see them beating Iowa twice in the same season. Lay the short number.

Iowa really hurt themselves at the free throw line in the first matchup. Even though they had more attempts than Indiana (on the road), they finished w/ five less makes. That's pretty significant in a game they lost by only seven points.  Also significant here is the change in venue.  We know that Indiana has, arguably, the strongest home court edge in the entire country.  They have not lost one time at Assembly Hall this season and average a ton of points per game there. But on the road, the Hoosiers are only 3-6 ATS (in "true" road games) and averaging well below their season average of 82.9 points per game (74.1).  Again, Iowa had not dropped a home game itself before falling to Wisconsin last week. Despite that result, they have outscored visitors on average by 15 PPG at Carver-Hawkeye Arena this season.

I'm simply not buying Iowa's recent form as any kind of long-term trend. They've shot only 40.7 percent from the floor including a season-worst 32.7% in their last home game. There were zero bench points scored in the first meeting vs. Indiana and that number can obviously only go up. On Sunday, they led Ohio State by six points w/ just over four minutes to go. Against Wisconsin, they were up six w/ just over 10 minutes remaining.  They've lost by a total of 16 pts these last three games and this is their longest losing skid of the season to date. Indiana will not be as prolific as they were LW at Illinois. 8* Iowa

10* Under Magic/Mavericks (8:35 ET):  Scoring has been up for both of these teams lately, both when it comes to points scored and allowed. For Dallas, the Over has cashed in eight straight games. They've topped 100 themselves in each of the last seven, in fact, they've scored 114 or more in five of them. Three of the last four have seen them top 120, though one of those games (vs. Denver) went to overtime.  This all sounds very impressive, but the schedule has been weak and the fact remains the team averages and allows only right around 102 points per game. Their opponents here have seen a similar surge in scoring recently, including their highest scoring game (excluding OT) to date, a 130-point effort vs. lowly Philadelphia on Sunday. Again, regression to the mean is in the cards.  Take the Under. 

The Mavs also recently achieved their season high in points scored at the Sixers' expense. They dropped 129 back on February 29th and came up just one point shy of that mark w/ a 128-101 win over Minnesota on Sunday. They shot 64 percent in the first quarter en route to 39 points. It's highly unlikely that they'll come out so hot again.  Similarly, Orlando shot a blistering 57% for the game against Philly on Sunday (62% from 3-pt range), which they won't top here as it was their best shooting game all year. They turned in their highest scoring first (40) and second (36) quarter of the year! Considering the Sixers last eight opponents have averaged almost 119 PPG, it's no wonder that the Magic scored a total of 254 pts against them in two games over the last week. Dallas won't be rolling over like that.

By the way, four of the Mavs' six previous games have gone to overtime, so beware of inflated point totals there. One of them was against this Orlando team, which ended up being a 110-104 Magic win. That game saw Dallas make a season-high 19 three-pointers, but they still lost. The game was just 98-98 at the end of regulation. Yet the total for the rematch is significantly higher. Obviously, it is due to the recent hot shooting of both teams, but I can't help but think those numbers are going to start to go down. Orlando averages only 98.6 PPG on the road and they are 11-4 Under this season after scoring 105+ points their previous game. 10* Under Magic/Mavericks

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): All year, I've been saying how tough the Central Division is and how it is likely to send five teams (both Wild Cards) to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  Two teams certainly in the mix are Dallas and Nashville.  The Stars currently find themselves in far better position as they are tied w/ Chicago for first place at 83 points. Nashville is in fourth, ten points back, but lately has been the much hotter team as they've won four straight, the last three of which have all come in regulation. Meanwhile, Dallas has dropped three in a row and all of those came on home ice. It certainly seems like an appropriate time to "strike while the iron is hot" as these two division rivals appear to be trending in opposite directions.  Take the Predators.

One thing that speaks well to the season the Preds are having is their ranking in both Corsi & Fenwick (7th/2nd), which tells you that they do a really good job of controlling the puck.  I find it pretty amazing that this club finds itself one game below .500, though taking 11 losses beyond regulation has a lot to do with that. Division games have been a real problem (8-11-3) even though they outshoot their opponents on average, 32.1 to 27.2.  That says they're "due" and wouldn't you know, they just beat both Chicago and St. Louis the L2 games. Pekka Rinne has been incredible between the pipes, turning in a .968 save percentage his L4 starts including a 5-0 shutout of the Blues on Saturday. The Preds have not been beaten in regulation in their last nine games!

Nashville is only 17th in the league in goals per game, but here they face a Dallas team that has allowed a stunning 28 goals the last six games and is just 1-4-1 its last seven games overall. Only one of those 28 goals allowed didn't come in regulation and it was the game winner for Detroit last night. We know that the Stars' weakness is between the pipes (23rd in goals allowed) and considering the way goalie Kari Lehtonen has been playing of late (.875 save percentage, 3.82 GAA L4 starts), Nashville's Filip Forsberg may very well continue his torrid pace (two hat tricks in L3 games). The Stars have a losing record this season when playing w/o rest and the Preds have been off for two days. Given recent form on both sides, it's a massive edge to the latter.  8* Nashville

10* New York (7:35 ET): Since December, much has changed for Portland. You have to remember that this was a team that had to replace four starters from last year, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge, and opened only 11-20 (straight up) out of the gate.  However, following the X-Mas Break, the Blazers have gone 21-8 SU and that includes a very strong 9-2 February. Turning back to December, however, there was a game against the Knicks that they lost 112-110. That was at home and the Blazers were 3.5-pt chalk. I realize that "much has changed," but it certainly does appear that the Knicks are now a really solid value taking more points at home than they did at the Moda Center 2.5 months ago.  Take the points.

Now, while the Blazers are surging, the Knicks are clearly fading.  After the disastrous season that was 2014-15, the latter was a nice early season story. But it didn't take long for former HC Derek Fisher to get sacked and the team is 3-14 SU its last 17 games. Believe it or not, but at the time of the first meeting, the Knicks had a better overall record than the Blazers! Don't think for a second that the oddsmakers haven't taken note and as a result we have an inflated line for the rematch.  Remember what I always say about "selling high" & "buying low?" It certainly applies here. Portland still has a losing road record (13-16 SU) for the year (-2.0 PPG) and this will be their third straight away from home of what will be a six-game trip (all out East).

Interestingly enough, the Blazers have been a road favorite only seven times all year. Three of those games were against the Nets, Sixers and Lakers. So this is a bit of 'rarefied air' for them.  Eventually, this incredible run that PG Damian Lillard is on has to come to a bit of a halt. He has scored 30+ pts in seven of the last eight games, a stretch certainly to be commended, but I don't think he can continue to keep it up. Only four guards all season have scored 30+ against the Knicks.  Maybe New York reached a point in the year where they were overvalued, but that time is no longer and they are still 21-17 ATS when taking points. Taking away games where they are playing w/ two or more days rest (11-1 ATS in that situation), the Blazers have a losing ATS record.  10* New York

9* Over Hurricanes/Devils (7:05 ET):  It was no surprise to me to see this number open at 4.5 as not only are the Devils the team where that O/U line is most common, but they face a Carolina club that allows the fewest number of shot attempts per game in the league (26.8). That should serve the 'Canes well tonight seeing as New Jersey averages the fewest number of shots per game in the league (24.5) by a somewhat substantial margin. Keep in mind that Florida is 29th in the league in shot attempts per game at 27.7. That gap between them and the Devils is roughly the same as the gap between the Panthers and the #7 team (Chicago), so yes, "substantial" was an appropriate term indeed. However, goaltending hasn't been good on either side recently and it's just not that hard for two teams to combine for five goals in today's NHL. Take the Over.

Carolina, who absolutely should be better given their Corsi/Fenwick rankings (#2/#4), has lost three in a row and given up a whopping 12 goals in the process. When this team doesn't make the playoffs (and it's increasingly looking unlikely that they will given they are currently six points back), the blame can be placed squarely at the respective pads of Eddie Lack and Cam Ward. That duo has combined for a collective .901 save percentage, which is tied for 27th in the league. They are 25th in goals allowed. So what I'm basically saying is that it doesn't matter here that New Jersey is last in the league in shot attempts per game. Because Carolina goalies allow too many in given the relatively low number they face.  These teams faced off three times in December and the Devils averaged three goals per game. 

Speaking of goaltending, even the usually reliable Cory Schneider has struggled of late for New Jersey. He comes in sporting an unusually low .867 save percentage his last four starts. Maybe its the sheer number of games played that have taken a toll on him (league-leading 53). But whatever the reason, Schneider has been tagged for 10 goals in B2B losses and has allowed four or more in four of his last six starts overall.  Carolina averages more than 30 shots per game, so they should get to Schneider here just like they did back in a 3-1 win on Dec 26th. 9* Over Hurricanes/Devils

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  Brooklyn has started what will end up being a nine-game road trip with three consecutive covers, including B2B "upsets."  I use the quotation marks there because they were bet to the underdog role in Phoenix last Thursday, but clearly Saturday was a surprise as they were taking 11.5 points in Utah.  It was an identical number last week in Portland (only lost by eight), but while those lines may both have been too high, this one is not nearly high enough. A huge gap exists between the top four and the rest of the field in the Western Conference and the Clippers are among the former group. After being shocked by Denver here at home Wednesday (I had the Nuggets +10.5!), LA rebounded by blowing out Sacramento on the road Friday. They had the weekend off, so lack of rest won't be an issue. Lay the points.

Meanwhile, being on the road for a week could start to take its toll on the lowly Nets, who only have six wins away from home all season. They won't be back home again until March 13th and that's clearly bad news for a team that's already being outscored by almost 7.5 points per game on the road.  Look for their scoring to start to decrease as they average only 96.9 PPG on the road for the season, but have been above that number each of the last three games.  Playing at an increased tempo has led Brooklyn to shoot nearly 45% from three-point range the last nine games. Again, that number will start to regress back to the mean as they are only 34.7% from behind the arc for the season. It's the same players shooting remember. 

The Clippers have covered four of five and got a season-high 40 points (w/ 13 assists) from Chris Paul on Friday.  Before that, defense had actually been the story, holding three of the previous four opponents under 90 points.  Here at the Staples Center, Los Angeles is 19-10 SU and outscoring teams by 6.7 points per game. Maybe that doesn't sound impressive, but when considering Brooklyn's YTD numbers on the road, this line should be higher. My own personal power ratings have the Clips favored by 15.5 in this spot.  The Nets lost by almost 40 in their lone visit to LA to play the Clippers last season.  8* LA Clippers

10* Under Canadiens/Sharks (10:35 ET): Given the Habs' season-long (well, since Carey Price got hurt) issues in goal, I admit that playing them Under the total does seem a bit risky. But there were no such issues in their last game, a 4-1 win over Toronto, and if anything it's the team's scoring that should decline here after B2B four-goal efforts. Meanwhile, I had San Jose last night and they came through for me w/ a big third period (scored 4 goals!) en route to beating Vancouver. Considering they were held scoreless for two periods and had only one goal the previous game, I don't think it's "out of bounds" calling for an all-around low-scoring game here.  San Jose is due to start allowing fewer goals per game at home. Take the Under.

As I mentioned in yday's analysis, the Sharks are curiously bad at home, but good on the road. The issue has been goaltending as the collective save percentage of their netminders on home ice is just .889, which is really bad.  It has to be really frustrating for them to be holding teams to only 25.8 shots per game here at the Shark Tank and still have a losing record due to allowing 2.9 goals per game.  With Martin Jones having made eight consecutive starts, including last night, there is a bit of question as to who exactly will be between the pipes tonight as the recently acquired James Reimer probably isn't ready (fortunately Alex Stalock is gone), so it could be recent AHL-callup Aaron Dell.  Regardless though, Under remains the play here as the Habs' offense is due to curtail.

Montreal goalie Mike Condon has been much better of late w/ a .948 save percentage his L4 starts.  He'll have to continue that trend here against one of the four highest scoring teams in the league.  With the number likely to remain at 5.5 (play still valid whether it does or not), there is definitely some value here as only one of the Canadiens last five games has seen more than five total goals scored.  Note that the last five times these teams have met, the Under has cashed.  That includes a 3-1 Sharks win "North of the Border," back in December despite them (SJ) having only 18 shots on goal. There were only 45 total shots in the game as a matter of fact. 10* Under Canadiens/Sharks

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  Calgary blew a golden opportunity to pick up two points on Saturday vs. Ottawa as a 4-2 lead entering the third period evaporated due to giving up a natural hat trick to Mike Zibenejad in the span of 2:38!  The Sens would go to to add another goal in the final minute giving the Flames a 6-4 loss despite a 38-26 edge in shots. In the interest of full disclosure, I was on Calgary there despite being well aware of their many faults (30th in goals allowed/29th on power play/30th in penalty killing). I still thought it was a great spot to take them, however, as Ottawa had been overachieving & the Flames aren't all that bad on home ice. But they (Calgary) will rue letting that one slip away as now they're out East for four straight games and have lost 20 of 29 road games this year. Take the Flyers.

This is Philly's third straight home game and they have won the last two, both against Western Conference clubs.  Somehow, this team put together by Ron Hextall (former goalie here), remains in playoff contention as they enter the day trailing the division rival Penguins by only three points for the final Wild Card in the Eastern Conference.  Given a recent surge in scoring, they should fare just fine here against a Flames team that as I already mentioned allows the most goals per game in the league.  Meanwhile, the Flyers' own goaltending situation seems solid now w/ the emergence of Michael Neuvirth, who has gone 8-2-2 w/ a 1.94 goals against average in 12 home starts this season. Also, Steve Mason has a 2.82 GAA his L5 starts. Regardless of who is between the pipes tonight, they will have the edge over their Calgary counterpart.

Only rival Edmonton has fewer points on the road this season than the Flames, so I'd probably go ahead and disregard the fact they have won 8 of their last 11 visits here to the City of Brotherly Love. In fact, if anything, that signals to me that they are due to fall here. Overall, Calgary has lost seven of eight including four straight. They have allowed four or more goals in five of those losses.  When it comes to special teams, no team in the league is worse and it's not even close. Even worse for the Flames is that they average only 2.3 goals per game on the road. 8* Philadelphia

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  It's always a challenge to drum up any support to play on the Sixers and here they figure to get little in the way of support given they just lost to the Wizards by nine (at home) on Friday. But each team has played a game since then and those respective results have greatly influenced this line from where I sit. Philadelphia lost (again) Sunday, this time 130-116 in Orlando, a wild affair that featured little to no defense. Meanwhile, Washington pulled a major upset yday, beating Cleveland at home, though the "impressiveness" of that win is somewhat minimized by the fact that LeBron James did not play. The Wiz have not had the greatest of seasons and the idea of them laying double digits isn't something I'd be too keen on.  Take the points.

From previous analysis we know that teams playing in the second of back to back road games are often undervalued, especially as an underdog.  Philly hasn't fared particularly well in this situation, but after five consecutive ATS losses, you have to think there will be at least a little bit of value on them in this price range.  This will be an unprecedented price range for the Wizards, as in it's the most points they've been asked to lay in any game so far this season! The only other time they came in as double digit chalk, they ended up losing outright to the Lakers here at home. Going back to previous seasons, the Wiz are just 3-10 ATS the L13 times they have been favorites of at least 12.5 points.

The Sixers actually scored their season high in points (on 53.2% shooting) Sunday. So that likely means we're getting a decrease in scoring here, but at the same time we should see improved defense as it can't get any worse than 130 pts allowed on 57% shooting (Magic scored 77 pts in the 1st half!). As I've previously written about, Washington is hardly an efficient offense as they are top five in pace (point of emphasis for them coming into the year), but are in a tie for 17th in points per 100 possessions. Things have gotten better since the All-Star Break (won five of seven), but after a win like yday (which was a bit misleading w/ no James), their stock is now a little bit too high in my estimation, so I say it's time to fade. 8* Philadelphia

8* North Carolina (7:00 ET):  The Tar Heels lost on Saturday, but considering they were at Virginia (as slight underdogs), that's fairly excusable. The final score was 79-74 and I cashed the Over, but tonight I'm willing to lay the points as they're back in Chapel Hill. Earlier this season, at the Carrier Dome, UNC downed Syracuse 84-73 as 7.5-point chalk. Using that number as a baseline, it does appear that we have a little bit of value on the home favorite tonight (should be about an eight-point swing from road to home in NCAA). Syracuse is pretty pedestrian away from home while North Carolina is 14-1 SU here at the Dean Dome, outscoring its opponents on average by about 21 points per game.  Lay the number.

UNC does have a big revenge spot upcoming at Duke on Saturday, so they'll have to avoid looking ahead. But considering the loss two nights ago, I'm counting on the proper focus here.  Off its last loss (which was the one to Duke), the Tar Heels came back and blew out a very good Miami team here by 25 points. Only once all season has the team dropped B2B games and both were on the road. The Heels actually shot the ball reasonably well against a Virginia team that is among the best defensively in the entire country. In fact, they finished the game at 49.2% from the field, including 9 of 19 on three-pointers (47.4%). But where they killed themselves was at the FT line where they went just 7 for 13. Virginia had more made FT's than UNC even had attempts. Despite having lost four times in February, I see no reason to panic in Chapel Hill as Roy Williams' team averages 86.8 PPG here.

Syracuse is just 1-7 ATS the last three seasons when attempting to avenge a home loss. Prior to beating North Carolina State (at home) on Saturday, the Orange had dropped B2B games while being held under 60 points both times. That's not a good sign here. They did win at Duke last month, but generally speaking, the 'Cuse have failed to "step up" when taking on the upper echelon of the ACC.  Against NC State, one of their own (Michael Gbinjie) scored a career-high 34 pts while Wolfpack leading scorer Anthony Barber was held to only 15.  As a team, the Orange made 12 three-pointers. I can't see that happening again tonight, so with UNC looking to hold down a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, look for them to win in convincing fashion. 8* North Carolina

8* San Jose (7:05 ET): The Sharks' road prowess is well-noted as they have won 21 of 33 games away from "The Tank." That being said, they did lose their last time out on the road, 4-3 at Colorado, and followed that up by losing 3-1 at home to lowly Buffalo. So, clearly, this is a team in need of a big win right now and I see them getting the two points tonight at the expense of Vancouver. The Canucks have won two straight, scoring five goals both times, but prior to that had dropped four in a row.  Despite being division rivals, these two curiously haven't actually met this season.  But the road team won all five matchups last year and I see that trend continuing here.  Take San Jose.

Vancouver hasn't fared particularly well in division games, at least when it comes to goal scoring. They're averaging just 1.9 goals per game against the rest of the Pacific.  With the Sharks in third place and the Canucks in fourth, you might think that these teams are relatively close statistically, but think again. San Jose has a 10-point cushion, which is huge because the top three in every division are guaranteed a playoff berth, and the goal differential is even more severe. San Jose has outscored its opponents by 14 goals for the year while Vancouver is -24.  The Sharks are 4th in the league in goals per game and third on the power play. The Canucks are 26th in goals per game. 

I said earlier that these teams have yet to meet this season. That will change in a hurry as they play three times over the next seven days.  Including playoffs, San Jose has won seven straight times here in British Columbia.  Despite a recent surge offensively, Vancouver is likely to be in "sell mode" come next week's trade deadline and that could have an effect on the players, who realize they don't have the backing of the front office.  The Sharks simply didn't get enough shots on goal Friday vs. the Sabres, but assuming that number goes up here and they rectify recent penalty killing woes, they'll be in good shape here. Note that the Canucks have allowed 30 or more shots in nine consecutive games. They are also 3-7 off a win by two or more goals.  8* San Jose

9* Under Lightning/Bruins (6:35 ET): Both of these teams have been scoring a lot lately. In fact, over their last five games respectively, the Lightning and Bruins are averaging 4.0 goals per game. For Boston, that stretch actually includes them getting shut out once, but since that time they've tallied an impressive 20 goals.  Tampa Bay, winners of five straight, has scored at least four goals in four of those victories. This very well could end up being a 1st round playoff matchup (teams are currently 2-3 in the Atlantic) and I expect a 'playoff-like intensity' here, which means fewer goals and the netminders ruling the day. The offenses are due to "cool off" anyway, so I look for the Under to cash here.

For much of the year, the Lightning's offense has been quite disappointing. Last year, they led the league in goals per game. This year, they are ninth but that's only after the recent flurry of scoring.  With Ben Bishop between the pipes Friday, they shut out the Devils (4-0) by limiting them to 21 shots. Bishop now has a .934 save percentage his L4 starts and while it's interesting that was just TB's fourth shutout of the season, they are 2-1 Under off the previous three. Of course, Bishop shutting down Boston is the least of my concerns. It's the Lightning offense having to slow down that is priority #1 here. Thankfully, they average just 2.6 goals per game on the road and are 13-8 Under after scoring 4+ goals in their previous game.

Boston's Tuukka Rask has been even stronger than Bishop of late. Rask has a .948 save percentage his last four starts and 1.61 goals against average his last five after allowing just one goal in each of the last two games despite facing a total of 82 shots. With both offenses on fire, lost is that the two goaltenders here have been sharp as well.  Since a disastrous effort vs. the Kings on Feb 9, Rask has allowed three goals or less in six subsequent starts. Five of those have seen him allow two or fewer.  Tampa Bay has allowed a total of just five goals its last four games. I feel that it is the offenses that are more likely to cool off than the goaltenders. 9* Under Lightning/Bruins

10* Indiana (6:05 ET): I was a little surprised to see Portland win yday in Chicago, at least as comfortably as they did.  Granted, the Bulls did not have their full compliment of players (no Derrick Rose, not to mention no Butler or Noah), but still... the Blazers led by 10 at the half and never really looked back.  When is the inevitable regression to the mean going to take place w/ this team? They've won 16 of 20 overall, including seven of their last eight (6-2 ATS). But despite last night's win, they remain 12-16 SU on the road, getting outscored by 2.4 points per game. How much longer can they simply "count on" their outstanding backcourt of Damian Lillard (31 pts last night) and CJ McCollum? Playing in the second game of a back to back, I expect the Blazers to stumble Sunday in Indiana. Lay the short number.

The Pacers have now failed to cover three in a row after an outright loss to Charlotte (here at home) on Friday. That loss came by a single point as the Hornets' Kemba Walker was able to answer Monta Ellis w/ a game winner when just 2.4 seconds were left on the clock.  Yet, they appear to be a little bit undervalued in this situation given their strong record when favored (25-10 straight up) and against .500 or better teams (19-8 ATS).  They are outscoring teams by 4.2 PPG here at home this season. I constantly preach the importance of "buying low" and here is a good opportunity to do so with Indiana. 

Portland took the season's first meeting, 123-111 thanks to making a ridiculous 18 three-pointers.  For the season, they average 10 makes per game from behind the arc. I feel confident in forecasting that we'll be seeing a decrease in production offensively here. Also, I find it interesting that Indiana was actually a 2.5-point favorite in Portland back in December. That again illustrates the kind of value we appear to be getting here.  I often make the case that teams, especially road teams, are often undervalued in the second game of a back to back. But because they've been so hot, that's not the case here with the Blazers, who are just 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS in this situation anyway. The Pacers have had their struggles vs. the West this year (7-17 ATS), but did win at Oklahoma City right after the All-Star Break and I'd expect that trend to progress back to average. 10* Indiana

8* Seton Hall (12:30 ET):  The respective statuses of these two Big East teams, as it pertains to the NCAA Tournament, is quite different entering this Sunday afternoon matchup. Xavier, ranked 5th in the country right now, is battling for a #1 seed in the big dance. Meanwhile, Seton Hall finds itself firmly on the bubble, even though they've won three in a row including an 18-point beatdown of Providence earlier this week. The Pirates have been one of the better teams to bet on in the entire country this season w/ a 17-8 ATS mark including 9-2 last 11. Where they've really excelled is in the underdog role as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five including three outright upsets. I'll call for another here as Xavier is in a letdown spot off the big win over #1 Villanova.

These teams met last month & it was Xavier winning (but not covering) 84-76 as nine-point chalk. Neither team shot the ball particularly well, especially from three-point range, but where Seton Hall really killed itself was from the line. They made only 10 of 19 free throws, which was a big deal when you consider Xavier was 18 for 22.  Also, reserve James Farr came in and contributed career highs in both points (24) and rebounds (15). Like the free throw discrepancy, that probably won't be repeated again today. The home team has now won each of the last four meetings with the final margin being at least eight points every time. Seton Hall has just three home losses on its resume, one of them coming by only a single point to Villanova. This is their final home game this year. 

I mentioned earlier that Seton Hall has covered five straight in the underdog role. They are 9-1 ATS overall this season when taking points and a highly impressive 28-14 ATS L42.  Overall, they've also covered eight of their last 10 games against teams that have a winning record.  Those impressive marks are largely owed to having perhaps the best defense in the conference. Opponents are shooting just 39.3% overall vs. the Hall, including 30.7% from three-point range (last year Xavier missed 18 of 19!). Providence was held to 28.4% Thursday. Xavier, off the 90-point effort vs. Villanova, is prone to a letdown in this spot. 8* Seton Hall

10* Calgary (10:05 ET):  When you want to talk about overachieving teams in the league this year, I think Ottawa belongs on that list.  I say that knowing full well that the Senators are not even currently in a position where they'd make the playoffs (four points off the pace), but even that's a minor miracle due to their terrible possession numbers (27th in Corsi/29th in Fenwick). They average only 28.2 shots per game (27th) and have been even below that average recently.  At the same time, they also allow the most shot attempts per game (33.1) in the league and have been above that average recently.  This is a great opportunity for the Flames, losers of six of their last seven, to pick up a rare two points.  

Given those numbers I just went through for Ottawa, you might reasonably expect that they've struggled to win games. However, the opposite has actually been the case.  They are 4-1 L5, outscoring their opponents by a full goal per game!  That seems extraordinarily fortunate given the stats. They did lose Thursday in Vancouver, however (5-3), and this marks their third game in five nights out here in Western Canada. The team is just 12-19 in road games overall this season and has lost each of the last two years here in Calgary (also lost to them 2-1 at home earlier this season).  They haven't outshot a single opponent in six games. Defense continues to be a concern as the team ranks 28th in goals allowed and 29th on the penalty kill. 

Calgary has had to take on some difficult opponents of late, so the poor record should not be that big of a shocker.  They are off B2B 2-1 losses to the Kings and Islanders, the latter coming via overtime.  That was a tough one as the Flames led 1-0 heading into the third period and it appeared as if things were headed to a shootout.  Believe it or not, but the Flames are pretty solid here at home (17-13-1) and when on a three-game losing streak this season, they are 5-2.  With Ottawa allowing a lot of shots and goals, plus being terrible on the penalty kill, this is a rare ideal matchup for Calgary, who actually only allows 27.5 shots per game here at home. 10* Calgary

8* Oklahoma City (8:35 ET):  While just about anyone (myself included) would have both of these teams ranked among the top 4 in the league (GSW either 1st or 2nd, OKC either 3rd or 4th), the truth is that they are miles apart when it comes to the pointspread.  The Warriors trail only the Spurs in the ATS standings (32-23-2  to 36-22-0) and of course they are 52-5 straight up, on pace for the best record in league history.  Meanwhile, the Thunder have the worst ATS record in the league at 22-35-1 ATS (have been at or near the bottom much of the year) after losing outright in New Orleans Thursday night. Predictably, the public is on the short road favorite in this one, but I'm going the other way as OKC is 25-7 SU at home and has yet to be an underdog here in any game this season.  Take the points!

This will be the second Saturday night primetime meeting between these two this month.  I did not have a play on that first meeting, a 116-108 Golden State win that fell right on the number.  Note that it was a high-scoring first half and the Warriors had a 73-59 lead going into the break.  But with the public moving in on them here, Steph Curry and company are a little overvalued, which is something that I haven't been able to say much this season. The fact is both they and the Spurs are significantly ahead of the rest of the league, but with homecourt advantage I expect the Thunder to be quite competitive, if not pull off the outright win. Remember all five Warriors losses this season have come out on the road. They are due to regress (at least against the pointspread) and Curry should see his own production drop after a 51-pt effort Thursday in Orlando. This is the final game of a seven-game trip for the team.

The Thunder appeared to have righted the course w/ a 116-103 win in Dallas Wednesday, but then lost outright in New Orleans the following night. It was their third loss in four games since the All-Star Break even though they shot nearly 55% from the floor! You simply should not lose when back that hot from the floor and the issue here has been defense, or rather a lack of it.  Clearly then, Golden State coming to town is not promising, but consider the Thunder average 108.2 PPG at home while outscoring foes by almost nine points per game and 7-5 SU off a SU loss as a favorite. The Warriors do allow 107.5 PPG on the road.  8* Oklahoma City

10* Western Illinois (8:00 ET): The Leathernecks (still a great nickname!) let me down Thursday, losing here at home to IPFW (Indiana-Purdue Ft Wayne) aka the top ATS team in the country, 87-75 as 3.5-pt dogs.  It was their fourth loss in a row, guaranteeing them a last place finish in the Summit League. Tonight marks the regular season finale (at home) and they draw the team that's second from the bottom, South Dakota, who is off a surprising win (85-82 over IUPUI).  Revenge will be in the air tonight in Macomb as the Leathernecks lost to the Coyotes last month, 76-67 as 4.5-pt dogs.  But that result doesn't justify this line and Western Illinois should be highly motivated to win at home for its seniors.

I think that home court advantage and defense will play the deciding roles in this one. As far as the former is concerned, Western Illinois might only be 6-6 SU at home this season, but they have a point differential of +6.6 points per game, indicating that the record should be better. They're allowing just 66.6 PPG here (eerie numbers!) which is markedly better than what South Dakota gives up on the road (82.6 PPG allowed).  The Leathernecks endured a poor start to the second half Thursday and that's what cost them. They only trailed IPFW (Summit leaders) by five at halftime.  Coming after playing the top two teams in the league, South Dakota is a steep drop in class in terms of opponent for the Leathernecks, who are led by junior Garret Covington, who has gone over 20 points in four consecutive games.

South Dakota shoots the ball well overall, but Western Illinois is better from three-point range (38.4%) and that could end up being the difference here given the Coyotes struggles defending the arc.  Coming off their only other outright win as a dog in Summit League play, South Dakota ended up losing by 20 their next time out and as is the case here that was the second of B2B road games.  The Coyotes opened league play 2-7 SU, but have since won four of seven thanks to a home-heavy stretch.  The road will be unkind here.  10* Western Illinois

9* Over Toronto/Montreal (7:05 ET): Not to "pick on" my fine "neighbors to the North," but it really looks as if not a single Canadian franchise will be in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That's just sad. We know the Leafs (last place in the Atlantic) aren't going to make it, but the decline of the Habs has been striking and can essentially all be pinned on the loss of goaltender Carey Price. After starting the season 9-0, Montreal is just 20-27-5 its last 52 games, including 10-23-2 L35. So, I can't make a play on the side, but the total jumps out to me due to the high juice on the Over. It's likely headed to 5.5, but regardless there should be plenty of scoring tonight as the Canadiens are still w/o Price and Toronto always gives up its fair share of goals. Take the Over.

The Under cashed for the Leafs on Thursday (oops!) as they somehow held Carolina to just one goal. I had the Over in that one as in the four games previous, Toronto had allowed a total of 19 goals.  The Over is 8-1-2 in all of their games here in February and Thursday marked the first time all month there wasn't at least five total goals scored in one of their games.  They did give up 31 shots to the 'Canes, but Jonathan Bernier turned in a 30-save performance, which seems out of the ordinary given his save percentage in his L4 starts is still just .887.  This team is thin (and really young!) along the blue line as well. They've allowed at least three goals in every game vs. Montreal this season and 3.0 gpg is how many they allow for the season.

In one of their three wins this season vs. Toronto, the Canadiens allowed 52 shots. But back then they had Price to save them, quite literally, as he stopped all but three back in October. But there's no Price now and even though the club is off a very impressive win over Washington Wednesday, they still allowed three goals. If there is a 'saving grace' for them here, however, it is the fact they are averaging 33.1 shots per game their last five.  The Over is 13-6-3 for them this season, including 7-3-1 here in February.  There were 70 total shots in the 4-3 win over the Caps and given how many shots we see on average in a Leafs game (62.1), this should be yet another high-scoring affair. 9* Over Toronto/Montreal

8* Over North Carolina/Virginia (6:30 ET):  When you think about Tony Bennett and Virginia, low-scoring games probably come to mind and sure enough the 3rd ranked Cavaliers have seen their last seven games all finish Under the posted total. But tonight they get a visit from #7 North Carolina and the Tar Heels should present a much greater challenge than recent opponents seeing as they come in averaging 83.7 points per game.  The Tar Heels have also been on a bit of a recent Under run (6-1 last 7), but that's also because the total is usually much higher than it is here.  In fact, it appears to be a virtual lock that this number will close as the lowest O/U line in any UNC game this season. Take the Over.

These two Top 10 teams have not met previously this season and won't again, save for a potential matchup in the ACC Tournament.  The two times they faced off last season (one in the ACC Tourney), the Over hit both times, albeit w/ lower totals.  UNC did not attempt many three-pointers in the two games, but they key was that they made them, going 11 of 23 from behind the arc. In the tournament game, they also made 57% of their two-point attempts. Coming into this game, the Tar Heels are at 48.3% on FG attempts for the year. Clearly, they will try and push tempo here and try to make this as high a possession game as possible. One thing that HC Roy Williams should be concerned about is his defense, which allows opponents to shoot 38.6% from three-point range. Virginia comes in shooting at better than a 40% clip from distance.

The Cavs' pack-line defense (made famous by Bennett's father, Dick) allows just 59.7 PPG.  They just allowed 64 points in a loss at Miami Monday (I made the right call on that one), their most given up in any game since a 72-71 win over Wake Forest back on January 26th.  But, it could be their offense that ends up being the difference in this one. They come off a 61-point effort in Coral Gables Monday, which tied their lowest scoring effort in ACC play all season.  That number should go up here. They'll likely hold UNC under its season average in points scored, but the Tar Heels have scored at least 65 in every conference game this season. 8* Over North Carolina/Virginia

10* Middle Tennessee (6:00 ET): Things are not looking especially great for Middle Tennessee right now. Not only did they just drop a tough one here at home to rival Western Kentucky Thursday, but leading scorer Gibby Potts (15.0 points per game) has been ruled out for an indefinite period of time due to a concussion. This is not good news for a team that has now dropped three of its last four to essentially "play its way out" of the race in Conference USA. However, there's been a clear overreaction to the injury by the oddsmakers as the Blue Raiders were just one-point dogs when they lost at Marshall (admittedly in blowout fashion) last month. Curiously, while the majority of the bets in this game have come in on the road dog, the line has actually gone UP. That's a sign of so-called "smart money" on the home favorite here, so I'm going to lay the short number.

Marshall finds itself in second place in C-USA, 1.5 games back of first place UAB.  That's not bad for a team that entered conference play at just 4-9 SU overall.  But while they did cover, it was a crushing 95-91 loss at UAB on Thursday, a game that saw the Thundering Herd turn the ball over only eight times. Playing that well and still coming up short in such a crucial game is bound to have a bit of a "carryover effect" here. The Herd have covered five straight games, but this is the dreaded second road game in three nights scenario, which is very difficult for most College Basketball teams.  Defensively, this team is a disaster as they allow not just 83.2 PPG overall, but also 89.9 PPG on the road (has to be the worst in the country!).  Twice in conference play, they have allowed more than 100 pts on the road.

Speaking of trouble defensively, Middle Tennessee's last few opponents couldn't miss.  Four of the last five have shot better than 51% from the floor, including UAB at 61.4%, but note that for the season the Blue Raiders are allowing just 43.2% shooting.  They are just 1-5 ATS L6 games, but were actually favored over first place UAB here in Murfreesboro where they are 10-3 SU w/ a point differential of +7.5 PPG.  This is their final home game of the season, so motivation should be quite high, especially coming off the B2B outright losses. They will not shoot nearly as poorly here as they did in the 1st meeting vs. Marshall (missed 13 of 16 three-point attempts).  10* Middle Tennessee

10* Under Heat/Celtics (3:05 ET):  Quietly, Boston has become one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Only three teams average more points per game (Warriors, Thunder, Kings), although they are just 10th in terms of efficiency (103.7 pts per 100 possessions). Over the last five games, however, they've taken things to a whole new level by averaging 117.4 PPG while at the same time allowing 115.4 PPG. That's well above season-long averages of 106.2/102.2 and tonight finds them facing the top Under team in the league (35-21-1), Miami. The Heat have also been seeing higher scoring games than per usual of late w/ a scoring average 108.6 PPG themselves while allowing 107.0 PPG.  It certainly seems as if we're due for a little "market correction" here. Take the Under.

The Celtics have topped 100 pts in 20 of their last 22 games. The two opponents that held them under triple digits were the Knicks (surprise) and Jazz. Getting held to 93 pts by Utah is notable here because the Jazz are currently #4 in the league in points allowed. Miami is tied for second (96.9) and is sixth in efficiency, well ahead of the Jazz.  Note Boston's scoring average from the past five games is heavily skewed due to a 139-134 overtime win over the Clippers. Still, the Over is a perfect 7-0 their last 7 games, but that's just a short-term trend as not only should the offense begin to tail off, but their defense also has to start tightening up. Their last five opponents have combined to shoot better than 50%, but fortunately the Heat are not strong offensively, particularly from three-point range where they are only 32.2% for the season.

Overall, Miami averages just 94.1 PPG on the road. They've gone over 100 pts in five consecutive contests, but not surprisingly four of those games took place at home.  They too recently played an overtime game (beat Indiana 101-93), then faced Golden State their last time out (lost 118-112), which obviously skews things from their perspective. As mentioned above, this is the top Under team in the league - by a pretty significant margin in fact - most notably going 21-9 (Under) vs. opponents with a winning record.  Other than Golden State on Wednesday, this would be the highest total for any Heat game all season. They are one of just three teams to neither score nor allow 100+ PPG and on average, their games are the lowest scoring in the league. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

8* IUPUI (1:00 ET):  Prepare for a bit of "alphabet soup" in this analysis as we have IUPUI taking on IUPUI-Ft Wayne (IPFW).  The latter, as we know, is the best ATS team in the league, now w/ a 20-5 mark. Their latest cover came Thursday night (at Western Illinois) and I happened to be on the wrong end of the 87-75 finale (IPFW was -3.5). Here, the Mastodons visit their chief rival in the Summit League in what is the regular season finale for both. IUPUI is off an outright loss here at home in their last game, by three to South Dakota (were 3-pt favorites). I don't see the Jaguars dropping B2B home games to end the year nor do I see the visitors winning B2B road games, something they have yet to do all season.

IUPUI has actually dropped five of its last six games, but three of those losses have come by a total of nine points including the last two both being final margins of four points or less.  It was actually a two-point win the first time they faced off w/ IPFW, on the road, as six-point underdogs.  At the time, that was part of what would turn into a four-game win streak w/ the next two games also very close.  Here at home this season, the Jaguars are 8-2 straight up while averaging 77.9 points per game. One of those losses obviously was the last game, but they never trailed by more than nine Thursday and then the game before that saw them shoot only 35.9 percent in a four point loss at North Dakota State. As a home underdog this year, the Jags are a perfect 3-0 ATS. 

Simply put, IPFW is likely to regress, not just here but moving forward as well.  At least when it comes to the betting window as the Mastodons have only failed to cover in five of their 25 lined games. But this is one of the teams that was able to cover at their expense. The last time IPFW was playing a second straight road game w/ just one day in between, they lost at North Dakota State in what turned out to be their worst game of the season to date. (I played against them there!) They scored just 46 points on 28.1 percent shooting in that one and note that on the road this season they've been outscored by roughly three points per game and favored just twice.  8* IUPUI

9* Under Sabres/Sharks (10:35 ET):  Well, the Buffalo-Anaheim game two nights ago certainly did not go as I'd hoped (had the Over) as the final score was 1-0 (in favor of the Ducks).  Even though they'd scored a total of seven goals their last two games, that makes the Under 4-1 in the Sabres' last five games overall. They currently rank 28th in the league in goals per game. Meanwhile, San Jose has seen plenty of scoring in its recent games, seven goals or more in fact in each of the last three games, all Overs obviously.  But if one team here is due for recent trends to revert back to 'normal' levels, it would be the Sharks, who are back at home where they surprisingly tend to struggle. Plus, I like that we are able to get the extra half-goal to work with here. Take the Under.

San Jose has definitely been kind to Over bettors this year w/ the total going that way in 34 of 59 games (five pushes).  The Over is even 9-3 in home games where the total is 5.5.   But the Under is 8-2 in Buffalo road games when the total is 5.5.  So something will have to give here.  Something I noticed is that the Sharks have an unusually high shot percentage (12.2%) the L5 games, so again it's more likely that their trends reverse to the mean here.  For the season, their shot percentage is 9.9% (fairly standard), but only 8.8% at home.  Two of their last four games have also gone to a shootout, something to keep in mind when tallying up how many goals they've scored during that time.

As for Buffalo, they had not been shut out since January 22nd. That was until Wednesday when they could not solve Anaheim's Frederik Andersen, who previously did not have a single shut out to his credit all season.  Again, only two teams average fewer goals per game than this one. Allowing just one goal, however, has been pretty 'par for the course' of late as in four of the Sabres' last five games, the opponent has been held to one or zero goals in regulation!  Keeping with that trend, it was a 2-1 loss to the Sharks at home earlier this season and that game did go past regulation.  9* Under Sabres/Sharks

10* Dallas (8:35 ET):  Denver was quite kind to me Wednesday as they went to LA and upset the Clippers (as 10.5-pt underdogs!), 87-81. Strangely, they were able to do so despite not scoring 20 points in either quarter of the second half. The key to the win was the Clippers missing 33 of 46 three-point attempts. The Nuggets are still only 12-18 SU on the road this year and seem to be getting a little bit too much respect tonight for a visit to Dallas. It's highly likely that Denver will regress after such a surprising performance two night ago while the Mavs are looking to bounce back from a 116-103 loss here at home to Oklahoma City. Having won just two of eight, Mark Cuban's team needs to pick up the pace as they are only 1.5 games clear of the ninth place team in the Western Conference. Lay the points here.

The Nuggets are a team that's rarely favored. In fact, they've been asked to lay points only nine times all season, far fewer than either the Kings or even T'wolves, and are just 2-6-1 ATS in those games. But as a dog, they are a strong 29-19-1 vs. the number. Yet, I just can't help but feel the oddsmakers are giving them enough here. With almost all their wins coming in the underdog role this season, I think it's important to note that the team is just 4-14 SU/6-11-1 ATS coming off an outright upset as a dog.  They lost by 11 in Dallas back in November, which was the teams' only previous meeting this season.  This is not a team noted for its defense (103.7 PPG allowed), so I'll chalk up the last game as a little bit of luck and an aberration. 

Dallas has simply been giving up too many points of late, something they will need to fix here. They did hold Denver to just 81 points in the first meeting (on 40% shooting), which is a positive sign, and it's not like the Nuggets were 'lights out' in their upset of the Clippers either.  The Mavs were 8.5-pt favorites when they played host back in November, so this line looks to be giving us a bit of value right off the bat.  Also, consider that coming off a double digit loss, Dallas has gone 10-4 SU/ATS this year and they are also 17-9 SU/16-10 ATS after giving up 105+ points the previous game.  I don't think the Mavs should have any problems scoring here as they come in averaging 113.8 points the L5 games. 10* Dallas

10* Under Cavaliers/Raptors (7:35 ET): This is a matchup of the two top teams in the East and thus it's certainly reasonable to expect a "playoff-like" intensity for tonight's game, particularly because it takes place in Toronto where the home folk should be quite fired up. Now, the first two meetings of the year between Toronto & Cleveland both went Over the total. But those games each had significantly lower totals, particularly the last one (194.0), which took place in Cleveland. It's more than a double digit adjustment from the linesmakers here and given recent results on both sides, I suppose that shouldn't come as too big a shock. But, it's an overadjustment nonetheless and I'm calling for an Under here as defense takes precedent.

Under Tyronn Lue, the Cavs offense has certainly improved. Well, except for Monday's 'dud' performance against Detroit where they scored only 88 points in a home loss. They followed that up w/ a commanding 114-103 win over Charlotte and really it could have been a lot more lopsided had they not rested LeBron in the fourth quarter.  Over the L5 games, the Cavs are well above their YTD scoring average (by 5.5 PPG), but that should start to come down, especially here on the road where they average "just" 100.2 PPG.  Strangely, this team is better defensively on the road where they give up only 95.4 PPG. Quietly, Cleveland is still top eight in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and had held three straight opponents under 100 pts before the last game. That includes Oklahoma City, on the road, a game I had the Under (and won). 

Toronto is right behind Cleveland in defensive efficiency, ranking ninth. But over their last five games, they're allowing 103.6 PPG. That's thanks to a couple of poor efforts around the All-Star Break, but since then they've "tightened things up" and for the season they allow just 96.7 PPG here at home. The two meetings w/ Cleveland so far this season have each seen a total of 25 three-pointers made, a very high number that should come down, and the Cavs made 17 themselves the last time they played.  The Under is 16-11 in Cavaliers' road games this season and a perfect 3-0 in Raptors' home games where the O/U line is between 205 and 209.5 pts.  10* Under Cavs/Raptors

8* Manhattan (7:00 ET):  The Jaspers are off a pretty bad loss here, 61-40 (at home!) to St. Peter's as four-point favorites. Meanwhile, Iona comes in off B2B upsets, the first being a really big one (83-67 over MAAC leader Monmouth) and then Monday they won at Siena 87-81 (+1.5). Given how often I preach about the value of "selling high" and "buying low," this seems like a perfect opportunity to strike in what is a revenge spot for the home team. Manhattan did lose by 14 earlier in the year at Iona, but were 11-pt dogs in the contest and shot just 35.6% from the field after being off for eight days due to a snowstorm in the northeast. Seeing what the line was for that first matchup and comparing to what it is here, there does appear to be some good value on the home dog. This is Manhattan's final home game of the year, so they should be motivated as well. Take the points.

When these teams faced off last month (also on a Friday), Iona was on a five-game ATS losing streak and had just been upset in its previous game, 98-91 by Fairfield.  Now, the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot." Starting w/ the 70-56 victory over Manhattan, the Gaels have covered seven of their last eight games (just avenged only loss - Siena) and are just one game back of Monmouth for first place. However, despite building a 25-point lead in the first half at Siena Monday, things were not nearly as easy as Iona would have liked. They actually let the Saints back into the game and even trailed with just under four minutes remaining. While the Gaels should be commended for building the big lead, the close call shows that they probably should not be trusted laying this many points on the road.  Tonight marks the team's third straight game away from home, by the way.

Manhattan had also been hot at the betting window, but that was before they went out and shot only 26.3% from the field in Tuesday's loss at St. Peter's. That result guaranteed that the Jaspers won't be a top five seed come the MAAC Tourney. But, motivation should still be high tonight given that this is the final home game of the season. The team is a pretty solid 8-5 SU on its own floor and should bounce back offensively seeing as Iona is allowing 76.9 PPG away from home.  Taking points at home, the Jaspers are a strong 6-1 at the betting window this season. 8* Manhattan

10* Under Rockets/Blazers (10:35 ET):  Both of these teams enter in on Over streaks (Houston four straight, Portland five straight), so right off the bat you know there's going to be some value on the Under here.  Sure enough, there is as we've crossed the "magic" 220-point threshold, still a rarity this season. There have only been 14 games previously this season where the total has been 220 pts or higher. (Interestingly, there are THREE tonight).  Portland has been a REALLY hot team of late, winning 11 of 12 including six straight. Over the last five, which includes a 137-105 thrashing of the Warriors, they are averaging an astounding 118.4 points per game. Even though they are playing the defensively inept Rockets here, that number has to start coming down. Take the Under.

This is the finale of a five-game trip for Houston that began prior to the All-Star Break.  So far, the only win on the trip came in Phoenix.  With a tough 117-114 loss (OT) to the Jazz on Tuesday, the Rockets are now under .500 for the year and behind both Utah and Portland in the race for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Their defense has been a major liability all season, but note that last game went to overtime, so the points allowed (as well as scored) are somewhat inflated there. Consider James Harden scored 42 points in the loss to Utah, a number he'll probably fail to match here. That game would NOT have gone Over without overtime.  As a team, Houston is shooting just 42.4% its last five games.

This will actually be the third meeting this month between these two teams. Portland has obviously taken the first two, but what's interesting is that neither of those games were as high-scoring as the oddsmakers are projecting for tonight.  The first, in fact, was a 96-79 final. The last one did go Over, but barely, and would be an under here as the score ended being 116-103. The Over is 12-4 the L16 meetings, so it's time for things to start going the other way. With Portland, their starting backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have both gone over 30 pts in B2B games. No starting backcourt has gone over 30 in three straight all year, so at least one of the duo is likely to have an 'off-night' here. The average total for a Rockets game this year is 209.5 and for the Blazers it's 204.5. So, again, you can see the value. 10* Under Rockets/Blazers

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET):  This is like choosing between the good, the bad and the ugly without the "good" part. The Suns enter this game on a 12-game losing streak and have just two wins since Christmas. Brooklyn actually has three wins in its last seven games overall, but all of them were at home.  On the road, the Nets are just 4-20 straight up, so it speaks volumes (about the Suns) that they are actually favored in this spot.  I believe (and so do my personal power ratings) that they should not be favored here. Believe it or not, but Phoenix was actually a 3.5-point favorite when these teams met in Brooklyn back in December 1st.  Now, given the Nets won that game (94-91) outright, that was obviously a bad line. But it does not mean that we once again should find the road team favored in a battle of two of the worst four teams in the league. Take the points.

Support for the Suns here is likely to be next to nil as they are coming off a horrendous 40-point loss to the Clippers. However, it's amazing how things can swing on a game by game basis in this league and one such example just took place last night w/ those Clippers losing outright (as 10.5-pt home favorites) to Denver (I nailed that one!).  Phoenix, like Brooklyn, is a dreadful road team (just 4-23 SU), but here at home things are a little more respectable. They're being outscored by only 2.2 points per game. Compare that to Brooklyn's -8.5 PPG scoring differential on the road and you begin to see why I think this line stinks.  As a home underdog, the Suns are 8-6 ATS this season. Brooklyn had yet to be in the role of favorite on the road until tonight. 

The Nets won't be back home until March 13, a stretch of nine straight road games. While they did cover Tuesday, that was because of a generous number against a red-hot Portland team (still lost by eight). Phoenix seems like it would be one of the more "desirable" destinations on this trip, but the Nets are just 4-14 SU (4-13 ATS) their last 18 visits here.  The discrepancy in shooting percentages from the Suns' last game certainly should not be as extreme here as they were on the wrong end of 55% to 35.2% against the Clippers.  Interim HC Earl Watson still has not won. He will here. 10* Phoenix

10* Western Illinois (9:00 ET):   Back on February 6th, I played against IPFW (Indiana-Purdue Ft Wayne), noting they would be unable to maintain the nation's best ATS record (17-3 at the time). Sure enough, the Mastodons got blown out at North Dakota State, 62-46, arguably their worst performance of the season. They followed that up by failing to cover in an 88-84 home win over Denver in the next game. However, they've since covered their last two (both at home), one an upset (were +3.5) over South Dakota State and then the other a narrow win (by 4, laying 3.5) over Nebraska-Omaha. So, it's probably time to go against the Mastadons yet again as they are laying points on the road, something they've only been asked to do one time previously.  Take the points.

Western Illinois comes in off a bad 87-67 loss, here at home, to South Dakota State. Of course, the Jackrabbits were likely in a foul mood after being upset by IPFW just two days prior, a result that landed the Mastadons in first place (by their lonesome) in the Summit League.  Western Illinois is at the other end of the spectrum (i.e. last place), which to some will make this short number rather curious. But you should note that IPFW has arguably been the "luckiest" team in the entire country w/ a ridiculous 13-1 SU record in games decided by six points or less. Simply put, they are due to drop one. Western Illinois may be just 6-5 SU at home, but is outscoring opponents by a healthy 8.4 PPG here as opponents are averaging only 64.7 PPG.

Not included in IPFW's string of close wins was an 88-67 home victory over Western Illinois last month. But that game saw the Mastodons shoot nearly 56% from the field, something that is highly unlikely to be repeated here. Covering by just one-half point their last time out is so indicative of this season IPFW is having (made a free throw in the final seconds to cover). I just can't see it continuing though, especially seeing as they are allowing 77.9 PPG in conference play.  It's interesting that despite a poor 9-16 SU overall record, Western Illinois has a point differential of a team that should be a lot closer to .500.  The Leathernecks (one of the best nicknames in the sport!) are just as due to pull off an upset as IPFW is due to suffer one, so take the points. 10* Western Illinois

8* Chicago (8:05 ET):  There's no other way to view the Blackhawks at home & at this price than as a bargain.  The Stanley Cup Champs, currently embroiled in a first place battle w/ Dallas in the Central, are 22-7-2 at the "Madhouse on Madison" this season while outscoring their opponents by a very impressive margin of 1.3 goals per game. The key has been superb goaltending. Corey Crawford and Scott Darling have combined to post a remarkable .943 save percentage here at home, allowing an average of just 1.7 goals per contest.  It is likely to be Crawford between the pipes tonight.  While he's off a bad game (unique circumstances), I look for a bounce back performance here. Furthermore, Nashville has lost seven of its last nine visits to the Windy City and is a losing proposition on the road overall this season.

The unique circumstance I just referenced for Crawford and the Blackhawks was an outdoor game in Minnesota on Sunday, which resulted in an ugly 6-1 loss. Because it was an outdoor game, I'd essentially disregard the result altogether. Of course, Chicago doesn't actually have that luxury and is now only two points clear of hard-charging St. Louis. But that also has a lot to do with the fact the 'Hawks have played only one time in the last eight days. They certainly should be "rested and ready" for tonight while their opponents happen to have taken the ice twice since Chicago last played.  This is the Preds' third road game in four nights, which tends to be a difficult situation for most teams. The 'Hawks beat them twice last month, by the way.

Nashville, who has won the first two games of this trip, could be missing a key defender for this matchup. That would be Shea Weber, currently listed as questionable w/ the dreaded "lower body injury."   With Weber, they've lost three times in four chances to Chicago this year, including both road games.  Though coming off a 3-2 win in Toronto the other night, all three goals came from one player (Filip Forsberg) and besides that was the Leafs.  While Crawford is typically excellent here at home, the same cannot be said for Nashville netminder Pekka Rinne on the road where his save percentage is just .897.  Further illustrating the Blackhawks ability to bounce back, their record is 10-4 after giving up 4+ goals the last game.  8* Chicago

9* Over Hurricanes/Maple Leafs (7:35 ET): Five times these teams have met since December of 2014 and five times they have combined to stay Under the total. Two of those matchups took place this season and the last one was as low-scoring as a game can be, 1-0 in overtime (a Carolina victory). But, and this is a big but, there were certainly a lot of shots in the game, 73 to be exact. That kind of goaltending, from either of these two teams, is highly irregular.  When you talk YTD save percentage, Carolina goaltenders are near the bottom of the league (.903) and Toronto isn't much higher (.905).  Despite their ability to possess the puck, the 'Canes are middle of the road in goals allowed and here are facing a club that has gone Under only TWO times (in 13 tries!) since the last time they met.  Take the Over here.

One of Toronto's two Unders came the last time they hit the ice, a 3-2 loss to Nashville, and I happened to be on that Under!  However, there hasn't been a single game this month involving the Leafs that featured less than five total goals(!), so you can see the importance of "playing the numbers" (5 vs. 5.5). Regardless, of late, they've been giving up a ton of goals. We're talking 19 in just the last four games alone (all losses), so really the number shouldn't even matter here. The Leafs' save percentage over the L5 games is just .832 as they are allowing 4.2 goals per game on an average of just 25.0 shots. Jonathan Bernier is the most likely to get the starting nod in goal tonight and he has a 3.92 goals against average & .872 save percentage his L7 starts. Incredibly, at no point in the last game did Toronto have a defensemen over the age of 25 on the ice!

Carolina should absolutely be able to take advantage of Toronto's defensive deficiencies. They've scored multiple goals in six straight games, averaging 3.3 per game.  They had only 18 shots on goal last game, but still won 3-1 over Philadelphia. Note that the three games prior all saw the Hurricanes tally at least 31 shots on goal. The key here will be Toronto scoring & even though Cam Ward has had their number previously, I see the Leafs scoring at least two here. 9* Over Hurricanes/Maple Leafs

8* Cleveland State (7:30 ET):   This is hardly the marquee matchup on Thursday's slate.  But there actually is a ton of value here on an admittedly bad Cleveland State team that is suffering through quite the miserable season. The Vikings have just eight wins all season, but one of those came at the expense of tonight's opponent (Northern Kentucky), whom they downed on the road 70-65 (as 4-pt dogs) last month.  Therefore, they certainly should be getting more credit from the oddsmakers tonight at home. But they're not due to suffering three straight blowout losses, the last two of which were on the road.  Believe it or not, but CSU actually has not won a home game in over a month.  They'll break that streak here.

I have a friend that follows the Cleveland State program closely (season-ticket holder) and early on, he alerted me to the fact it was likely to be a tough year. Remember this program has suffered two key transfers, Trey Lewis to Louisville and Anton Grady to Wichita State (in retrospect, things didn't turn out so well for either player!).  That left the cupboard rather bare for HC Gary Waters and while recent results are hardly inspiring, I think that a return home will bring a little bit of motivation. A Saturday/Monday trip through Wisconsin didn't go well, but Northern Kentucky is one the few teams in the Horizon League that CSU can actually beat. By the way, here at home they are holding opponents to just 63.9 points per game.

Northern Kentucky is a Horizon League newcomer this year and like Cleveland State, things have not gone well for the Norse. They've lost four straight and will conclude their regular season w/ two more road games after falling by three at Wright State on Saturday. It was a cover (as 8.5-pt dogs) in that last game, but the fact remains the Norse are just 2-11 SU on the road this year, allowing 79.5 PPG and getting no help from the oddsmakers here. In that first meeting with Cleveland State, they allowed the Vikings to shoot 56.3% from three-point range. As a favorite/pick 'em, Northern Kentucky is a lousy 1-4-1 ATS this year. This will be a rare win for the home team. 8* Cleveland State

8* Iowa (9:00 ET):  Interim Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard is getting a lot of praise for how he's handled a pretty tough situation in Madison (Bo Ryan stepped down mid-season) and he absolutely deserves said credit, particularly if the Badgers do get to the NCAA Tournament. The team has won eight of its last nine, the one loss coming at Michigan State, who is as hot as any team in the country right now. They'd actually previously beaten Sparty, not to mention Indiana (also at home) and Maryland (on the road) as well. But B2B non-covers seem to indicate that the market has begun to "catch up" and it will definitely be a challenge for Gard's team tonight in Iowa City where they'll find the #8 ranked team in the nation off an embarrassing loss that took place exactly one week ago.

Yes, in the Notre Dame-Wake Forest analysis, I talk about how rankings can often artificially inflate pointspreads.  But that's not the case here. Iowa has absolutely been one of the best teams in the country all season long and is at home tonight where they haven't lost in 13 tries and outscore opponents by an impressive 17 PPG margin. Coming off their second loss in the last three games, an outright one at that (were -9 at Penn State), I expect them to be very motivated here as they've had a full week to stew over what happened in State College. What happened was they allowed the Nittany Lions make 10 three-pointers. Consider that was the same team Iowa beat by 24 here in Iowa City earlier this month. There have been some troubling signs defensively of late, primarily in the two losses, but I'm confident the Hawkeyes will revert back to their season average of allowing only 66.5 PPG here at home (29.4% 3pt defense).

Wisconsin hasn't shot the ball particularly well its last three games and on the road this season offense has been a problem.  The team averages only 62.8 PPG outside of Madison on 39.1% shooting (just over 30% from 3-pt range).  Though they've surprised under Gard, the Badgers are simply not in the same class as Iowa, who likely remembers what happened in LY's two meetings. They (the Hawkeyes) lost by a combined 43 points in the two games. So revenge will be on the mind here & I expect a big win. 8* Iowa

10* Over Sabres/Ducks (10:35 ET):  Anaheim is a big favorite here and deservedly so as they've rolled to five straight wins. With the money line being "what it is," I'm obviously going to refrain there, but I do believe that the Over offers tremendous value in this one as the Ducks have totaled an impressive 21 goals in their last four games. Clearly, this is a stark departure from what we've seen most of the season as the club still ranks 21st in the league in goals per game. But consider that they were last for much, if not all, of the first half. So there's been considerable improvement since that time and besides, that woeful start wasn't really indicative of what this team is capable of.  Go with the Over here.

Buffalo is another team that has struggled to score for much of the year. But they have scored a total of seven goals the last two games and 18 in the last five.  Typically, we do see a lot of shots on goal in their games, particularly those that take place on the road.  For the year, the Sabres are allowing 33.2 shots per game on the road, a troubling average for sure, but at the same time they also get it on net an average of 30.6 times per game themselves.  The Under has been a big winner for them in home games, but on the road with a total of 5.0 or less the Over is 10-4 this season.  Their last game, which took place on Sunday, saw them fall at home to Pittsburgh by a score of 4-3. All that scoring was done in regulation.

A Sabres penalty killing unit which is a perfect 18 for 18 its last four games is certainly due to regress soon, right?  One thing is for sure and that's I do not expect them to blank Anaheim like they were able to do at home back in December. That game saw Chad Johnson make 44 saves in a 3-0 win.  Johnson is not the likely starter here, that would be Robin Lehner, who cannot possibly continue a .954 save percentage from his last four starts.  He allowed four goals on Sunday, so already there are clear signs of regression. Buffalo might be down its leading scorer (Ryan O'Reilly), but they are also just traded one of their better defenseman (Mike Weber).  I expect Anaheim (8-0-3 Over in February) to strike early & often in this one and Buffalo to be able to add a couple of goals as well, helping this one land Over the total. 10* Over Sabres/Ducks

8* Denver (10:35 ET):  The Nuggets were, and I stress "were," 8-1 ATS over a nine-game stretch entering the All-Star Break. Yet there is/was no doubt that they still rate among the worst teams in the league, therefore it's been no surprise (at least to me) to see them having come out of the Break with three consecutive defeats, both straight up and against the spread. Two of them came to Sacramento, however, and last night's 114-110 loss (at home) as 2.5-pt chalk could certainly be categorized as a bit disappointing. I've made the case for many years now that teams playing in the second game of a back to back are often undervalued, particularly when they failed to cover the previous night. That is the case here. Take the points.

Opposing Denver tonight will be the Clippers, who are now solidly a top five team in the league thanks to an incredible run w/o Blake Griffin. Somehow, the Clips have gone 20-6 w/o the services of their superstar (no, they are NOT a better team without him) and two losses since the Break have been by a total of eight points, one to Boston (in overtime) and the other to league-leading Golden State. Their last game saw them absolutely whitewash the Suns, 124-84 as 14.5-point chalk. They shot 55% from the floor compared to just 35% and the size of the blowout clearly has impacted tonight's spread. Recall that while I did cash LA in their three-point loss here at home to Golden State that they actually trailed by double digits late. It was the reserves that brought them in through the "proverbial" back door. 

Denver also rallied from a big deficit last night in the fourth quarter, only to ultimately come up short. They trailed the Kings by as many as 17, but were able to momentarily take back the lead in the fourth quarter.  Rarely will you ever read me using the term "momentum," but I look for a little bit of a carryover effect for the Nuggets from last night's rally.  Historically, the team has done quite well in this price range as they are 16-4 ATS the L20 times they've been a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points, including a perfect 5-0 this season alone! Leading scorer Danillo Gallinari should start to see his own personal shooting get better after making only 38 percent of his field goal attempts the L6 games.  8* Denver

8* Colorado (9:00 ET): #9 Arizona finds itself tied atop the Pac 12 standings (w/ Oregon) after winning six straight, the last game being a complete blowout. Sean Miller's Wildcats thrashed in-state rival Arizona State, 99-61 as 12.5-pt chalk, a full week ago. But now they have to hit the road where four of their five losses this season have occurred and end up in Boulder where host Colorado has been more than just a "tough out."  The Buffaloes are 14-1 SU on their home court this season, the lone loss coming at the hands of Utah by just two points (a game that saw them blow a 9-pt second half lead). The Buffs are going to be happy to be back at home as they've lost four straight on the road, including their last two overall.  Take the points here.

Colorado's most recent result was very different than that of Arizona's as the Buffs were blown out Saturday at UCLA, 77-53, a game where they were only five-point dogs. The two respective teams here being off very different results (opposite ends of blowouts) plays to our advantage tonight as we are now able to get a ton of value on a team that is 14-1 SU at home. How often do I preach to "sell" on good news and to "buy low" on bad news?  Consider that the CU has not been a home underdog at any other point this season and is outscoring its opponents here by 14.1 points per game. While still projected to be a NCAA Tournament team by most everyone (somewhere between an 8 to 12 seed), the Buffs' status is getting a bit precarious and another loss might have them firmly on the bubble, if they're already not there. Simply put, a win tonight would go a LONG way.

After shooting a blistering 57% from the floor against ASU, it will be difficult for Arizona to be that sharp again here, especially after a longer than usual layoff.  At the same time, we should see Colorado shoot better than the 32.3% clip we saw from the Sun Devils last Wednesday, especially because the Buffs only shot 31.1% (season-low) themselves in the loss to UCLA.  CU is due to break out offensively, in my opinion, and they are the Pac 12's second best rebounding team in terms of margin. They are also holding opponents to just 39.9 percent shooting here in Boulder.  8* Colorado

8* Wake Forest (9:00 ET):  The polls (Top 25) can have quite the influence on a given pointspread. But the bottom line is that linesmakers pay little attention to them and have their own set of rankings that are far more reliable. The reality of the matter is that when the public sees the little number next to a team and nothing next to the opponent, the assumption is the former is significantly better.  But all too often, this fallacy proves to be wrong. Now, I'm clearly not going to make the case that Wake Forest has been a better team than Notre Dame this year, but the Demon Deacons have certainly been unlucky. In terms of strength of schedule, most rating systems I've seen say that no team has faced a more difficult slate of opponents. They finally broke through with a win over the weekend, and a big one at that (albeit over lowly Boston College), so I say take the points here in what should be a close game.

It seems like a long time ago now, but the Demon Deacons do hold non-conference victories over UCLA, Indiana and LSU. They also took Xavier, at the time unbeaten, to the limit here in Winston-Salem. Unfortunately, ACC play has been far less kind to them as there have been a number of close losses (four by 5 pts or less) and they've had to play all the top teams at least once.  Taking its frustrations out on overmatched Boston College Sunday, Wake saw four players finish in double figures as they rolled to a 74-48 victory as nine-point favorites here at home. They did not fare well in the first meeting w/ Notre Dame this year, losing 85-62 (as 10-point pups) up in South Bend. But that game saw them shoot just 25% from three-point range.

Yes, Wake will again be w/o its leading scorer, Devin Thomas. But they didn't have him Sunday and other players managed to step up.  I expect the same thing to happen here.  Notre Dame could also be w/o one of their key contributors, Zach Auguste, who injured his knee in the last game. He's currently listed as questionable.  The Fighting Irish lost Saturday, 63-62 at Georgia Tech (were 3-pt favorites) and are now just 5-7 SU for the year outside of South Bend.  I mentioned earlier that Wake shot poorly from three-point range the first time these teams played. That's atypical for Notre Dame opponents, who are shooting 39% from behind the arc for the season. Using the line from last month's meeting, this one seems like a great value by comparison. The Demon Deacons are only being outscored by 3.3 PPG here at home while Notre Dame is only +0.3 PPG for the year on the road.  8* Wake Forest

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Sure, the Grizzlies - in terms of actual vs expected wins - are technically one of the most overachieving teams in the league (point differential of a 25-win team).  They also just lost - as 7.5-pt dogs - in Toronto. But that negative point differential and corresponding low expected win total still has a lot to do with some ugly, early season results where they were on the wrong end of blowouts. Even though the Lakers are 7-1 ATS here in February, I still have them ranked at the bottom of my own personal power rankings as they're being outscored by a league worst 10.8 points per 100 possessions. Much of that negative margin has to do w/ their awful defense. I played against them Sunday in Chicago, saying that line should have been double digits and the same assertion applies here.  Lay the points. 

Though 7-1 against the spread this month, the Lakers have lost their last six games straight up. After falling in Chicago Sunday, they came back and stayed within a generous nine-point number in Milwaukee, losing "only" 108-101. By comparison, this line looks low as I don't think you can make a case that the Bucks are better than the Grizzlies.  It also must be pointed out that the Lakers ended up outscoring the Bucks 36-18 in the fourth quarter Monday, meaning that they were down 25 at the end of three.  Kobe Bryant again shot the ball poorly (what a surprise!) and only got to 15 points because he was 8 of 9 from the free throw line. Throughout the year, I've referenced the Lakers' odious defense, which now gives up 109.1 points per game on the road & is last in terms of efficiency. They've allowed over 118 PPG over their last four contests overall.

Memphis had won seven of nine before losing "North of the Border" Sunday.  They'd averaged an impressive 105.5 PPG their L14 games, most of those games coming w/ Marc Gasol (now out) in the lineup, mind you, yet I look for them to bounce back here after shooting just 3 of 20 from three-point range against the Raptors (Lakers allowing 47.4 3-pt % L4 games). The Grizz shot better than 56% against LA when they beat them here back in December, 112-96 as 9.5-pt chalk.  The team still is 2-1 w/o Gasol, scoring 109 pts in both wins. 10* Memphis

8* Under UNLV/Boise State (11:00 ET):  Both of these teams have gone Over in three straight games. UNLV's last game, a 101-92 win over in-state rival Nevada, went to overtime only after a buzzer-beating three-pointer at the end of regulation. From there, the Rebels scored an astounding 22 points in the extra five minutes, which is quite the offensive performance. That even outpaces the 79 points they scored in regulation and can likely be pinned on a deflated Wolfpack defense.  As for Boise State, they came out on the wrong end of a close decision (lost 80-78) at New Mexico six days ago (had the weekend off), which followed B2B 90+ point efforts (one of which was a loss). Despite all this recent scoring, I like the Under in this one as both offenses are due to "cool off."

That game vs. Nevada was the second time this month that UNLV has gone into OT (played a 2OT game at Fresno State). After the first, they came back and shot a season-low 29.4% in a 64-61 vs. San Jose State. So projecting a decline in shooting numbers here certainly seems wise. Also, I find it interesting that the Rebels allowed 91 points their last game despite holding the Wolfpack to just 33.3% shooting for the game. What happened is that Nevada made 29 of its 34 free throw attempts. Both teams, in fact, went to the line 34 times. That's quite a bit.  The Rebels, who shoot just 67.3% from the FT line to begin with, average only 24 attempts per game, which is the same number as Boise State. On the road this season, UNLV averages only 72.8 PPG, well below their overall season average. They are also down multiple key contributors right now, Stephen Zimmerman and Dwayne Morgan.

When these two faced off in Vegas last month, it was 87-77 Rebels. But as I just went through, UNLV scores significantly less on the road. That game also saw a 55-point second half by UNLV.  Look for Boise State to be much better defensively this time around as they give up only 66.8 PPG here at home.  In their last game, they allowed New Mexico to make 9 of 17 three-pointers as well as attempt 33 free throws.  UNLV isn't going to match that. At the same time, Boise State shot better than 50% themselves the L2 games, which probably cannot be sustained. 8* Under UNLV/Boise State

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Despite having won four in a row, the Wild still find themselves in sixth place in the Central and that would mean no playoffs. But they are just three points out of fourth and two from fifth. Something else they have going for them is a better goal differential than all but two teams in the division, those obviously being Dallas and Chicago.  The Islanders are certainly an opponent to be respected, but they actually only have five more points than Minnesota. This also isn't a particularly great spot for the Isles as it comes near the start of a lengthy trip, after three days off (beat New Jersey 1-0 on Friday) and with three games in Western Canada looming. Minnesota actually just swept such a trip, totaling 15 goals in the process, then returned home and scored six more in a win over Chicago on Sunday. This team is simply too hot right now to pass up at this price.

That 6-1 win over the Blackhawks was a special one for the Wild, not just because it was against the top team in their division, but also because it took place outdoors at nearby TCF Bank Stadium.  Perhaps its just coincidental, but the team's recent surge began after a long called for coaching change. John Torchetti replaced the much maligned Mike Yeo and since then there's been no looking back as the Wild have scored five or more goals in every game under their interim HC after doing so only five times in 55 games under Yeo.  Obviously, results from outdoor games need to be taken w/ a "grain of salt" considering the unusual conditions, but there was nothing fluky about the way Minnesota dominated its three opponents from Western Canada on that trip. 

There's a little bit of revenge in play here as the Islanders beat the Wild 5-3 in Brooklyn right after the All-Star Break.  That game saw a ton of shots on both sides with Minnesota holding a 43-38 edge.  Though New York has also been playing well of late (5-1-1 L7), it should be stated that they have yet to win a single time this season when coming off a shutout victory in their previous game. They are 0-3 in that situation and remember they beat the Devils 1-0 last Friday. They've also been outshot in three of the last four games (just 46 shots L2 games).  10* Minnesota

9* Dallas (8:05 ET):  The Stars have lost three straight and find themselves one point back of Chicago in the very tough Central Division. The Blackhawks don't play tonight, so when we glance at the standings tomorrow morning, there's a good chance that Dallas will be back on top. All they have to do is beat last place Winnipeg.  The Jets have also lost three straight (as well as four of their last five), all on the road. They'll need more than just a return home, however, as they've been a losing proposition this season in Manitoba including a 5-3 loss to Dallas just three weeks ago. The Stars are a perfect 3-0 this season vs. the Jets, outscoring them 13-7.  Goalie Kari Lehtonen has really had Winnipeg's number throughout out his career.

Things aren't going well for Winnipeg right now at either end of the ice.  They've been held to two goals or less five times in the last six games. Saturday's 3-1 loss at Florida (I had the Panthers!) did see a recent trend of lots of shots on goal continue, but they simply can't seem to solve opposing goaltenders. In their last 10 home games, eight have been losses and the Jets have scored just 14 times. Of course, goaltending has been a concern as well. Four times since the All-Star Break they've given up at least five goals and three of those have come here at home. It looks like Ondrej Pavalec will be the one starting in goal tonight and over his L4 starts he has a save percentage of just .899. He's been even worse in division contests (.857).

Meanwhile, it would be difficult to imagine things getting any worse for Dallas between the pipes as they've given up a total of 13 goals their last two games. That can't happen, especially since one of those games was versus lowly Arizona and the other a home game (vs. Boston).  As mentioned previously, Kari Lehtonen has owned the Jets through the years, going 7-1-1 w/ a 1.95 goals against average, his lowest vs. any team in his career. If for some reason Lehtonen doesn't go here, then it will be Antti Niemi, who has a winning record this year as well. Niemi started three weeks ago in Winnipeg and stopped 24 shots. Whomever is in goal likely won't face the Jets top goal scorer, Bryan Little, who is day to day w/ an upper body injury. 9* Dallas

8* Under Predators/Maple Leafs (7:35 ET):  I made the wrong call w/ the total on the Predators last night as the bottom line is that this team is simply struggling to score right now. Granted, they did prevail in Montreal Monday night, but by only a 2-1 margin (in a shootout) and that was the fourth consecutive game (all Unders) where they were held to two goals or fewer. Three of those games have gone past regulation and the Preds have scored only seven times total, six if factoring out last night's shootout. It is impressive that they've been able to earn five points during this time and that's all thanks to the goaltending of Pekka Rinne plus the team's excellent puck possession numbers. Only Carolina is allowing fewer shots per game. Take the Under here.

With Toronto, things have been trending in the opposite direction. We know to typically expect a lot of shots in Leafs games (though those numbers are actually down from previous season), but lately the amount of scoring we've seen overall is pretty crazy. Each of their last seven games have seen at least six goals scored with six of them seeing at least seven goals and two seeing nine.  They've won just once during that time as atrocious goaltending has been the culprit w/ a collective save percentage of just .828 the L5 games, which is as bad a number as I can recall in some time. Leafs netminders, whether its James Reimer or Jonathan Bernier, have allowed an average of 4.6 goals those last five games despite facing an average of just 26.8 shots! But while this sounds really bad, the save percentage has to start going up and given Nashville's current offensive woes, tonight is the perfect time to start seeing that.

In fact, the number of shots Toronto is allowing per game of late is right in line w/ Nashville's YTD numbers, which I remind you are among the league's best.  Four times in the last seven games, the Leafs have allowed 25 shots or fewer.  Offensively, this team has its own issues as they rank just 28th in the league in goals per game. They also have the worst overall power play at 14.3 percent.  Given the current state of the Nashville offense, what we've seen from Toronto offensively all year, plus projected regression to the mean in goal for the Leafs, I'm calling for a low-scoring game here. 8* Under Predators/Maple Leafs

10* Under Magic/Sixers (7:05 ET): Part of me thinks that Philadelphia actually has a chance in this one. Since opening the year 21-9 ATS, Orlando is just 9-14 vs. then number and that's after actually covering seven of the last nine. But the Magic did lose their last time out, 105-102 at home to Indiana. But it's difficult to pull the trigger on Philadelphia, who has lost eight of nine w/ the one win coming at home against Brooklyn.  What I can pull the trigger on here is the Under as Sixers games have been higher scoring than usual of late. When these teams met just last month (a Philly win!), the total closed at 195.5, significantly lower than what we have here and that last meeting stayed Under the total. Take the Under here.

For the first time all season, we've seen the Sixers both score and allow 100+ points. There's been only one other time all season where they have scored 100 or more in three consecutive games. The next game, ironically, came against Orlando. While they did beat the Magic that next game, as stated before, it stayed Under - by double digits in fact. They held Orlando to 87 points on 39.3% shooting. While getting that kind of defensive effort again isn't likely, what I believe to be the real key is that over the L5 games, Philly is scoring 8.8 PPG above its overall season average while allowing 5.9 PPG more at the same time. They're due for a market correction on the lower-scoring side.

The same holds true for Orlando, who comes in averaging 104.2 PPG their L5 games. This is a team that averages only 99.7 PPG for the season and even fewer than that on the road.  Looking over the full season, this ranks as one of the highest O/U lines we've seen in any Magic game. There's been only two higher - one against Oklahoma City and one against Sacramento, the two teams that along w/ Golden State consistently see the highest totals in the entire league.  Philadelphia has averaged an incredible 43.3 percent from three-point range these last three games, a number that will almost certainly begin to dropoff and the Under is 5-2 for them this season when the O/U line is 205 to 209.5. The Under is 12-7 for Orlando if they allowed 105+ points the previous game. 10* Under Magic/Sixers

8* Under Rhode Island/Davidson (6:00 ET):  Davidson is off a very impressive performance over the weekend. They beat St. Joe's 99-93 (St. Joe's 1st road loss all season!) & no, there was no overtime. Both teams shot better than 56% from the field, which is highly irregular, and thus in my opinion we have some good value on the Under here as the likelihood of that kind of shooting from either side here is rather small. Throw in the fact that the opponent, Rhode Island, just shot 54.5% in its last game and has allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better.  The Rams have now gone Over in each of their last five games, but the oddsmakers have definitely taken notice & hung the highest total for them here in any A-10 game this season.  Take the Under.

Just to show you how shooting/scoring levels can fluctuate wildly in College Hoops on a game by game basis, take note that it was only three games ago that Davidson played to a 60-59 final (lost) at George Mason.  In the two games since, both they and the opponents have been above 50% shooting.  Looking back, that hadn't previously happened at any other point in this season.  In fact, this is the first time all year they've shot better than 50% from the field in B2B games.  The scoring average here at home (83.6 PPG) is quite impressive while overall, the defensive numbers are troubling. But the Wildcats are allowing roughly seven points per game fewer at home than on the road this season.

With Rhode Island, as I'd previously mentioned, this is a high total. The Under is 13-3 the L16 times the OU line has been between 140 and 149.5 and the last game was the first and only to go Over in that situation all season. In that last game (which was at home), the result was a 77-74 win over Duquesne w/ the Rams shooting 54.5% from the floor. But their numbers taper off considerably on the road where they average just 68.8 PPG. Consider that there have been three games in the last month where the Rams failed to even reach 60 points.  With the exception of a game against bottom-feeder George Mason, URI has typically followed a good shooting effort w/ a bad one in conference play. Only twice this season have they shot better than 50% in B2B games. 8* Under Rhode Island/Davidson

10* Atlanta (8:05 ET): Bucking conventional wisdom a bit, I feel that's it time to start going against Golden State. I did so on Saturday night and while it admittedly took a miracle (13-0 late Clippers run), the result was a winning ticket nonetheless. The Warriors are just now under 60 percent ATS for the season (30-22-2) and that's after cashing at a 57.2% ATS clip in their Championship season last year. Clearly, "the cat is out the bag," with this team as they are striving to break the 95-96 Bulls single season WL record of 72-10. So there should be a ton of value in going against them moving forward, especially when laying this many points on the road (where all five of their SU losses have occurred). Take the points here. 

Atlanta is a desperate team right now, so we're going to get a home dog giving maximum effort. Following the All-Star Break, the Hawks have dropped B2B games here at home and given up a ton of points in the process.  Granted, Saturday's loss to Milwaukee came via double overtime, but neither the Bucks nor the Heat (who beat the Hawks the night prior) are considered offensive juggernauts. It took a 26-19 fourth quarter to even force extra time against Milwaukee, not a good sign, but one positive takeaway is that the Hawks missed a shocking 32 of 41 three-point attempts in that game, something that is not likely to be repeated any time soon. In my analysis Saturday, I talked about the problems that the Warriors have had defensively of late as their last five opponents are averaging 114.2 points per game.

Though Golden State is battling San Antonio for the top spot in the West (currently three games up) as well as chasing history, the sense of urgency for Atlanta here will certainly be greater.  The Hawks have fallen into sixth in a crowded Eastern Conference playoff picture. Obviously, we all knew that the team wouldn't come close to matching LY's surprising 60-win total, but the recent decline is a bit concerning.  Still, this is an unprecedented price range for them at home (this season) and it should be pointed out that they did beat the Warriors last season here.  Golden State is thin in the middle right now (why they signed the recently released Anderson Varejao) and has a losing ATS record vs. the Eastern Conference. Their average scoring differential on the road is in single digits.  10* Atlanta

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Last Thursday, the Blues cashed for me as my Game of the Week (over the Kings) and I'll come back with them again here after they won again (6-4 over Arizona) on Saturday. On a five-game win streak, this club has clearly hit its stride as they currently occupy the all-time important third place position in the Central and are well clear of the fourth place team.  In fact, they're now only two points back of first place Chicago and second place Dallas happens to be in a mini-slump.  With more points (79) than all but three teams in the league, St. Louis is a "third place team" in name only.  Their opponents here also happen to be a third place team, but San Jose has just 67 points and will be playing its fourth consecutive road game.

Seeing the Sharks lose on Friday, 5-2 to Carolina, was not really a surprise to me. I say that not just because it was the team's second road game in two nights (and third in four nights), but also I see this impressive road record of theirs due to regress.  Only Washington has more road wins this year than does San Jose (20). In the case of the Capitals, they happen to also be the best team in the league right now.  The Sharks are nowhere near that distinction. It's been an odd season for them as they've struggled at home, but excelled on the road. I wouldn't be surprised to see that dichotomy start to "level out" moving forward.  Interestingly, they have been outshot in each of the last two games. They got lucky w/ an OT win at Florida on Friday as they finished that game w/ only 18 shots. Carolina outshot them 37-24 on Saturday. 

Now, if you're a Blues fan, you're likely very concerned with the loss of forward Alexander Steen for the next four weeks. The team's #2 scorer, Steen will clearly be missed.  But, this is a team game and considering the offense still scored six times its last time on the ice, I think they'll be just fine.  Just as they lose Steen, St. Louis is getting a key return back between the pipes as Jake Allen was activated on Sunday. Yes, Brian Elliott has been incredible during Allen's absence, but his number of consecutive starts had begun to be a concern and he did allow four goals to Arizona last time out.  Allen has a .924 save percentage this year & the Blues are 9-3 this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. 10* St. Louis

8* New York (7:35 ET):  The Knicks snapped an ugly seven-game SU/ATS slide w/ a 103-95 win at Minnesota on Saturday (were +2.5 at the betting window).  Now they return home to take on Toronto, who finds themselves in a pretty tricky spot, laying points no less.  The Raptors made a brief stop back home on Sunday, beating Memphis 98-85 as 7.5-point chalk. That was predated by six-game road trek that took them all over the U.S. and now it's back "South of the Border" for yet another away game. Toronto is 0-4 ATS this season as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and is 0-2 ATS against the Knicks, having lost outright to them earlier in the year and then winning by "just" 10 (were -12) last month. Both of those games were in Toronto. Take the points here.

The Knicks falling out of contention can be traced to Carmelo Anthony being absent from the lineup. When Anthony hasn't played, the team is 0-7 straight up. When he's on the floor, they're a respectable 24-26 SU. Anthony led the way w/ 30 points & 11 rebounds in Minnesota Saturday and the Knicks wound up building a lead as large as 24 points in the second half. Him being back also helps rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who struggled when having to shoulder the offensive burden. I think that New York will be just fine offensively in this contest as remember Toronto is still without one of its better defenders, DeMarre Carroll.  Keeping opponents off the glass is something the Knicks have done well recently as opponents are averaging only 44.8 rebounds the L5 games.

Many times, I will make the case that a team playing w/o rest is undervalued, especially when on the road. But being asked to lay points, that is not the case here with Toronto.  The Raptors last two road games have seen them give up a ton of points (233 to be exact).  The defense was obviously much better last night, but that was against an opponent (Grizzlies) that was w/o perhaps its best player (Marc Gasol) and not particularly strong offensively to begin with.  The Raptors' own scoring has been up the L5 games (105.8 PPG) and should start to decrease moving forward (did last night). Look for the home dog to keep this one close throughout and possibly pull the outright upset for interim HC Kurt Rambis. 8* New York

9* Over Predators/Canadiens (7:35 ET):  Nashville was a tough loss for me on Saturday as they fell in overtime, 2-1 to the Kings at home.  Over the last three games, the Preds have scored just five goals, but consider that they matched that total in their last road game (5-0 win at Florida) and scored 17 over a four-game stretch before the current drought.  They scored five times in this season's first meeting w/ Montreal (who was already w/o Carey Price at the time) and we know the goaltending issues that persist for the Habs.  Nashville might do a superb job at controlling the puck (5th in Corsi/2nd in Fenwick), but the Over is 8-1-1 in Montreal's last 10 games and they've averaged 33.2 shots per game at home. Take the Over here.

There's been only one game since the All-Star Break where the Canadiens and their opponent failed to total at least five goals. That was February 7th vs. Carolina.  Though they beat Philadelphia, 3-2, on Friday, we all know what the issue is here. That would be the goaltending, which has declined massively since Price was lost to injury.  When we last checked in with Montreal (played against them and won on Feb 17), they were a league-worst 8-23-1 their L32 games.  Mike Condon, despite getting the win (in a shootout) Friday, still has a save percentage of .880 his last four starts.  The Over is 2-0-2 in those games with him allowing a total of 13 goals.  It's not a good sign that the Habs allowed 37 shots in their last game, the third time in the last six where they allowed 35+.  After all, Nashville scored its five goals on just 19 shots in the season's first meeting!

The Preds have been slumping offensively of late, but as I talked out above, I look for that turn around here.  If I was a Nashville fan, I'd be more concerned with a bad game from goalie Pekka Rinne tonight.  Yes, he's been good in his last two starts, but before that turned in a 4.00 goals against average over four starts. He's had Montreal's number the last few years, but those numbers are due to regress as well.  The Preds have been an unlucky team this year (1-10 SU in overtime!), but a power play that's just 4 for its last 33 is likely to improve. They are 4-1 Over this season following three consecutive Unders. 9* Over Predators/Canadiens

8* Miami FL (7:00 ET):  The 'Canes are off a blowout loss on Saturday (96-71 at North Carolina), but thankfully are back in Coral Gables as they get set for yet another ACC matchup w/ a Top 10 opponent. This time, it's Virginia, who has covered four straight and won eight of its last nine straight up (only loss by 1 at Duke).  Miami has lost three straight in this conference rivalry, including 66-58 in Charlottesville last month, but due to both that result and Saturday's game we're able to get a ton of value here. The "U" was a 4.5 pt dog when they visited UVA on January 12th and given the close nature of that contest, should be favored by more here. Lay the small number.

What a difference a month or so makes. When these teams last played, Miami was the higher ranked team and Virginia was off B2B losses. Playing w/ a sense of desperation there, UVA shot 51.1 percent in the contest and held the Hurricanes to just 6 of 22 shooting from three-point range after HC Tony Bennett made some changes to his starting lineup. Since then, Bennett's Cavaliers have lost only two times, the next game (at Florida State) and the aforementioned defeat at Duke. As that illustrates, on the road, the Cavs simply aren't as strong.  They're just 4-5 SU in "true" road games, including four losses in ACC play, and are 3-6 against the spread. The team did get the weekend off after destroying NC State seven days ago, but that result and the time off have caused a needless reduction in the line, in my opinion.

In that first meeting, Virginia went 16 of 21 from the free throw line while Miami was just 10 of 17. That kind of performance is highly irregular for the 'Canes as they come into tonight ranked 12th nationally in FT percentage (75.1%) and average 10.3 more points per game at the charity stripe than their opponents this season.  So look for that discrepancy to be rectified here.  It was also Miami's lowest point total of the season to date against Virginia the first time.  Saturday happened to be their worst defensive effort of the season (trailed by as many as 38!). The bottom line here is I look for the Canes, one of the top teams in the country, to revert back to their 'usual selves,' particularly leading scorer Sheldon McClellan.  8* Miami FL

10* Over Avalanche/Canucks (10:05 ET):  It has been four consecutive defeats - by identical 5-2 margins - for Vancouver and whether or not they are able to come out on the winning end here, I see another high scoring game on the horizon. Colorado has seen five or more total goals scored in each of its last four games. However, the Under has cashed in three straight due to the line closing at 5.5. Here, we are getting some solid value at 5.0, especially in lieu of the Canucks' recent showings.  Both sides, again Vancouver in particular, have been giving up a lot of shots on goal lately. The number of 5.0 is pretty significant as the Over is 7-3 in Canucks' home games this season when that's the total.  Take the Over here.

Even if the total does get bet up to 5.5, we are in good shape here. That's because the Canucks have not only given up 20 goals in the last four games, but also 33 or more shots in five straight.  Goaltending has become a major concern here. Jacob Markstrom was the culprit in Friday's loss to Calgary and has an .898 save percentage his L4 starts overall. Ryan Miller isn't that much better of an option either as he's also started twice during the last four games.  Now the Vancouver offense must start to pick things up after not scoring even three goals one time during a current six-game skid here at home. They rank 29th in the league in goals per game, but this is somewhat of a favorable draw w/ the Avs likely starting Semyon Varlamov, who has a 3.49 goals against average his L3 starts vs. Vancouver.

Only one of Colorado's last 11 games haven't seen either them or the opponent tally at least three goals. Only two of those games haven't seen at least five total goals scored.  Now, one of those came against the Canucks, a 3-1 loss back on February 9th.  But the Avs did have the edge in shots in that game, yet unfortunately came up empty (0 for 4) on the power play.  Save for going 3 for 4 w/ the man advantage against Ottawa, the Colorado PP has been just dreadful over the last month (1 for 15 L4 games), but I have a feeling that's about to improve.  The Avs also allow nearly 32 shots per game, one of the highest marks in the entire league.  10* Over Avalanche/Canucks

8* Over 2.5 Rounds Kawajiri vs. Bermudez (10:00 ET):  This is a play for the Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Dennis Bermudez fight to go Over 2.5 rounds. They say "styles make fights," but so do situations and in this case, we have a fighter (Bermudez) off B2B losses in the Octagon, so I expect a rather cautious approach here. In the other "corner," it just so happens we have a fighter (Kawajiri) who has seen his last three fights go to the scorecards.  This one will too.  Take the Over 2.5 rounds.

After a seven-fight win streak, Bermudez has lost two in a row, getting stopped both times. He's fought only one time since the start of 2015, that being a TKO loss to Jeremy Stephens that took place in the third round.  Generally speaking, if Bermudez's fights don't end early, they make it to the third round. Against Stephens, he was doing quite well, and clearly took the first round. But this wil be a tough matchup for him. Kawajiri is a more veteran fighter and I believe will be able to keep him at bay.  The one real positive for Bermudez is his ability to defend takedowns and Kawajiiri's ability to get his opponent on the ground isn't what it once was.   I see a large portion of this fight being in the clinch. 

Bermudez takes a lot of risks offensively, but will Kawajiiri be able to take advantage? Again, I'm not sure he (Kawajiri) has the kind of finishing capability we saw from Bermudez's last two opponents.  Again, Kawajiri's last three fights have all gone to the cards.  It was unanimous 30-27 scores in his last fight as he got up early and seemed to content to have the judges grant him victory.  Only one of his last five fights haven't gone to the cards.  Quite frankly, I don't see this being the most exciting fight and the judges again will be left to decide the winner.  8* Over 2.5 Rounds Kawajiri vs. Bermudez

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): Something that has really caught me off-guard is the Lakers' recent improved play.  I still have them rated as the worst team in the league, mind you, but their current six-game ATS win streak is worth mentioning.  But, it's not something I see continuing after tonight.  I think it bears repeating that despite the 6-0 ATS run, I still have LA rated #30 and that's mainly because what a disaster they've been on the defensive end of the floor where they allow a ghastly 108.5 points per 100 possessions. I was shocked that they were able to stay competitive with San Antonio Friday night (scored 113 points), but I see those offensive numbers regressing and as I'm about to go through, this line is a tremendous value. Lay the points.

It wasn't all that long ago that these two teams first met.  The end result was a 114-91 Bulls victory, but what's really noteworthy there is that Chicago closed at -8.5, meaning we are now able to lay FEWER points with them at home than we would have had to on the road less than a month ago! The oddsmakers decision is especially curious when you consider the blowout nature of that first meeting (23-point margin).  Yes, I'm well aware of the fact that Chicago is currently w/o the services of Jimmy Butler, who scored 26 points and had 10 assists on January 28th.  But, just two nights ago, we saw other players step up in an impressive 116-106 win over the Raptors. Most notable was the 30 points from Doug McDermott, which likely won't be duplicated here, but still there's ample room for the rest of the team to improve. Everyone not named "McDermott" or "Rose" combined to go just 23 of 56 from the floor Friday night.  So, I look for someone else (former Laker Pau Gasol?) to step up here.

Again, the Lakers are just heinous defensively. They've somehow gotten away with allowing a total of 239 points the L2 games and still covered both times. That was due to some atypical strong offensive showings, but that won't last as we know Kobe Bryant is the worst jump shooter in the league and Chicago is holding teams to just 42.4% shooting here at the United Center. Again, the key here is the number, which is somehow less than what the Bulls were asked to lay in Los Angeles less than a month ago.  10* Chicago

10* Indiana State (4:00 ET): As I had previously projected, Wichita State's dominance over the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference has tapered off a bit w/ two outright losses in the last five games. However, they stepped out of conference on Monday and regained lost form by destroying New Mexico State, 71-41.  Then came another blowout at home, this time 99-68 over Missouri State, which was the Shockers' highest scoring game to date. So, it's no surprise that the oddsmakers are back on their bandwagon here for a visit to Terre Haute. But despite the fact they beat Indiana State by 20 earlier in the year, I'd be leery of laying this many points against what will be a desperate Sycamores team in front of a red hot crowd. Especially considering this is Wichita State's third game in seven days. Take the points.

Indiana State, meanwhile, is a team that oddsmakers have likely cooled off on. That's because of a six-game ATS losing streak that's seen them lose outright four times and then get blown out (by 28) at Illinois State earlier this week.  Still though, when you're able to get a team in almost an identical price range at home as you were on the road (ISU was +14.5 at Wichita in 1st meeting), I think you have to take advantage.  The Sycamores are a lot better here in Terre Haute where they are holding opponents under 40% shooting (39.%) and to only 63.7 points per game. We clearly have yet to see them in this kind of price range at home, in fact, just one time all season have they taken more than five points at home all season. They covered (vs. a good Valparaiso team) and are now a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home dog after outright upsets of both Northern Iowa and Evansville, games the Sycamores won by double digits.

Neither team shot well in the first meeting, but a big difference was Wichita State finishing w/ a +10 edge in free throws made as they had more makes from the charity stripe than Indiana State had attempts. That kind of edge is often prevalent when you're the home team, but the Shockers can't count on it this time around.  While Wichita State has obviously been favored in every conference game this season, Indiana State has also been favored in a majority of theirs and again, suffered five straight (ATS) losses as chalk (not normal) prior to Wednesday night's debacle in Normal. They shot a season-low 25.4 percent from the floor at Illinois State, a percentage that I guarantee will increase dramatically here while WSU will not come close to duplicating its near 60% shooting effort from its last game.  10* Indiana State

8* Under Cavs/Thunder (3:30 ET): While it's pretty obvious to anyone that's been paying even a minimal amount of attention to NBA this year that San Antonio and Golden State are the top two teams, here is a matchup of the teams that are clearly #3 and #4.  Now, Cleveland did beat OKC (by four) at home earlier this year, but I actually have the Thunder rated as the better team overall. But playing the side here doesn't interest me as it's the total that's instead "caught my eye." When these teams took the floor against one another back in December, the O/U line closed at 203 and just managed to get Over thanks to some late free throws. It's substantially higher this go around and to me that means the value resides w/ the Under.

Kevin Durant reportedly re-aggravated a foot injury in the last game, a 101-98 loss to Indiana (where the Thunder were eight-point favorites). He did finish the game and is probable to play here. However, you have to wonder if he'll be a bit limited. One area I expect OKC to improve upon is on the defensive end as they allowed the Pacers to come from behind and "steal one" w/ a 34-point fourth quarter. Overall, the Thunder are giving up 106.4 PPG their last five contests. Expect that number to start to come down here as for the season they allow just 98.8 PPG at home.  The Under is 20-11 in all Thunder home games this season & I find it highly unlikely that Cleveland will be as efficient as they were in the first meeting from three-point range (12 of 29!), even with Kyrie Irving now in the lineup.

The Cavs will likely be short-handed here as the recently acquired Channing Frye still is not ready to suit up and Iman Shumpert (top perimeter defender) is doubtful to play. However, Shumpert's absence won't be felt that much as he was unlikely to guard either Durant or Russell Westbrook, who account for the vast majority of the OKC offense.  The last five games have seen Cleveland average 109.6 PPG, which is well above their YTD average of 99.6 PPG on the road. So, they're likely due for a drop in scoring here. Underrated is the fact the Cavs are top five in points allowed league-wide & both of these teams are in the top 10 in terms of defensive efficiency. Save for a game vs. Sacramento last week, this looks like the highest total for any Cleveland game all season. In a marquee matchup, I just can't see that much scoring. 8* Under Cavs/Thunder

8* LA Clippers (8:35 ET):  I think that most will see Golden State coming off that ugly loss last night in Portland and want to automatically back them here as they're laying just a small number on the road. But that would be a mistake in my estimation. This is a rare time when my power ratings feel that the Warriors aren't undervalued as the Clippers have been a hot team (winning 20 of 25) and they just crushed the Spurs here, 105-86 on Thursday night. Given that result, plus the fact the Clips rarely are afforded the opportunity to take this many points at home, I have no choice but to back them here as they are rested and the Warriors are not, which I do think makes a big difference in such a marquee matchup. Take the points.

Golden State has now failed to cover the spread in three straight games and particularly concerning is the fact they are giving up a lot of points recently. Their last five opponents have averaged 116 points per game and while they've been fortunate enough to score 118, that's still a pretty razor thin margin. I admittedly made a mistake backing San Antonio in a similar spot last night (laying points w/o rest). It is going to be difficult moving forward for both the Warriors and Spurs to maintain the blistering pace set in the first half of the season where they outscored foes by more than 12 points per game and covered more than 60 percent of their games.  I'm well aware of the fact that Golden State hasn't dropped B2B games all season, but it's troubling that they allow more than 107 PPG on the road. Also troubling were the 13 turnovers in the third quarter last night.

  The Warriors are always going to get a team's best shot, but in particular tonight has to be a game the Clippers have had circled for some time. LA has lost five straight to their division rivals, including by seven here at home earlier this season and by four in Oakland just days before.  Both games were played all the way back in November, so a lot has changed since then, particularly with the Clippers, who have caught fire despite not having Blake Griffin.  That home loss to the Warriors earlier in the year was particularly painful because the Clips led by as many as 23 in the second half! But they know they can beat this team, whose five losses this year have all come on the road. 8* LA Clippers

10* Nashville (8:05 ET):  The last two times that the Predators have won, it has been in shutout fashion. That includes Thursday's 2-0 win over Boston where I played (and won with) the Under. Therefore, with the scuffling Kings coming to town tonight, this looks like a tailor-made matchup for the home team.  Los Angeles has lost three straight and in the process scored only two goals. Also on Thursday, I cashed my Game of the Week on St. Louis at their expense. The Kings have actually outshot each of their last three opponents, but their usual excellence at controlling the puck will be put to the test here by a Preds club that similarly ranks quite high in both Corsi and Fenwick. The possibility of not having leading scorer Anze Kopitar does the road team no favors in this one either.

As I talked about in my writeup for the Under in Thursday's game, Nashville does a tremendous job at limiting the number of shots by its opponent. They allow the fewest number of shots per game in the league in fact, at 26.5. That's the last thing that the Kings want to hear right now given the current scoring woes. Not only might Kopitar miss this game, but they are of course still without Marian Gaborik as well. The Kings had lost five in a row to the Predators, three of those here in Nashville, before a win all the way back on Halloween Night (at home). They are just 4-7 SU this season after scoring 1 or 0 goals the previous game.  Also concerning is that Jonathan Quick has had some bad performances recently. Fatigue could be setting in with this being the team's seventh consecutive game on the road.

  Maybe the Kings are due to breakthrough offensively sometime soon, but it will be challenging here facing either Carter Hutton (.964 save percentage L4 starts) or Pekka Rinne (29 save shutout Thursday).  For many years, Nashville had been great at Bridgestone Arena, but somewhat surprisingly Thursday marked just their second win here in the last seven tries.  I think that the turnaround they started against Boston is likely to continue tonight.  10* Nashville

10* Pepperdine (8:00 ET):  This is one matchup where I feel that the revenge angle is worth endorsing. Pepperdine, as a three-point road favorite, got beat by Santa Clara earlier this season 62-60. That game was decided on a last-second three-pointer by the Broncos' Jared Brownridge. It was not a particularly good spot for the Waves either as the game previous saw them pull a big upset of St. Mary's, as eight-point dogs.  Perhaps you recall it was just last Saturday when I went against the Waves in a similar spot (off an upset of St. Mary's) and they failed to cover laying points at Pacific. But here it's a different story as they followed that up by losing to San Francisco (outright) as 8.5-point home favorites Thursday. I'll call for a bounce back here.

I've had a good read on when to play against Pepperdine thus far. Not only did I cash a winning ticket against them last Saturday, but nine days earlier I also went against them and won, that time cashing Portland outright as a 10-point dog.  It should be noted, however, that before that loss the team had covered five in a row including a four-game SU win streak.  Things then went downhill a bit, but then they upset St. Mary's again. This team's chances of finishing in the top four in the WCC took a bit of hit with Thursday's loss to San Francisco, who pulled away late. But, of the Waves last five conference losses, three were by three points or less. So that record could conceivably be a lot better. They haven't been great at the betting window when favored so far, but this line is a bit of a bargain.

Tonight marks the dreaded second road game in three nights for Santa Clara. Somewhat surprisingly, they've fared pretty well in this situation previously. But coming off an upset of Loyola Marymount (who was missing its leading scorer/rebounder), it's difficult to imagine a second straight quality showing.  The Broncos have allowed their last two opponents to shoot over 50% for the game. Somehow, LMU only got to the free throw line a total of SIX times on Thursday! A real key here is that Pepperdine is holding visitors to just 30.2% shooting here at home for the season, including 25.8% from three-point range.  10* Pepperdine

8* Arkansas (7:30 ET):  When the Hogs pulled off a 74-71 upset of then #5 Texas A&M (I was on it!) back on January 27th, things appeared to be trending in a very positive direction in Fayetteville. In fact, the Razorbacks would go on to cover their next three games as well, including a blowout of Tennessee.  But, all of a sudden, the team has now dropped three in a row, the latest coming as big 16.5-point favorites at home vs. Auburn on Wednesday night. This, in my opinion, has led to a massive swoon in value that we can now take advantage of tonight. Consider that they last time the Hogs faced Missouri, they won 94-61 and that was in Columbia. So, I wouldn't be the least bit concerned about having to lay double digits here.

That first meeting was an absolute bloodbath with Arkansas shooting 62.7% (school record for an SEC game) overall, handing Missouri its worst ever home loss. The Tigers failed to even make a single basket over the first 6:32 of the game. Obviously, replicating such a one-sided performance will be somewhat difficult, but those banking on the revenge angle need to be aware that Mizzou has not won a single game on the road all season! You read that correctly.  They are 0-11 SU outside of Columbia, 0-8 SU in "true" road games, while getting outscored by 16.3 points per game. After opening SEC play 1-10 straight up, they've bounced back with consecutive outright victories. But just like Arkansas' recent from, that has given us some better value for this rematch.

This is the first time in two seasons under HC Kim Anderson that Missouri has won B2B SEC games.  They shot lights out (54.5%) in the win over Tennessee last Saturday and both the Vols and South Carolina (who Mizzou beat Tuesday) shot well below 40 percent from the field.  With the Arkansas offense averaging a strong 85.9 PPG here in Fayetteville on 47.7% shooting, I look for the tables to turn. Note that the Razorbacks let Auburn shoot better than 60% from the floor Wednesday and the two games prior saw them unable to make anything, especially in a dismal effort at Mississippi State where they finished 16 of 72 from the field. I'm talking simple regression to the mean here and we can lean on the fact the Razorbacks are a strong 5-1 ATS in this price range (-9.5 to -12) at home the L3 seasons. 8* Arkansas

8* Florida (7:05 ET): Despite not being in the best form right now (2-3-2 L7), the Panthers continue to comfortably lead the Atlantic with 73 points. This will be their fifth consecutive home game and surprisingly they've dropped three of the previous four. I use the term "surprisingly" because prior to that they stood at 18-7-3 SU for the season here in Miami.  Tonight, I have them bouncing back against a Winnipeg club that is mired in last place and giving up far too many goals of late. The Jets have dropped five of their eight games since the All-Star Break and in four of the losses, they allowed five goals or more. After rallying back (from a three-goal disadvantage) in the third period Thursday at Tampa Bay, only to lose in a shootout, it will be difficult for them to rebound here.

Rebound is what Florida's offense needs to do as they've scored only 14 non-shootout goals in that 2-3-2 stretch and half of those came in a blowout win over the Sabres.  They have averaged just 23.3 shots over the last three games while the power play is 0 for its last 17. Injuries have been a concern, but recall just how many goals the Jets have been giving up late. This has all the makings of a "get well" spot to me for the Panthers.  Roberto Luongo has struggled a bit of late, so him likely getting the nod between the pipes (rather than Al Montoya) isn't the best news, but consider Luongo still has a .924 save percentage and has played a big part in the team ranking 4th in goals allowed this season. Another positive is they just held to San Jose to only 18 shots (including OT!) Thursday.

Goaltending has not been a strong suit for Winnipeg.  They are 25th in the league in goals allowed and tonight's likely starter Ondrej Pavalec has a .899 save percentage his L4 starts after stopping only 21 of 26 shots vs. the Lightning Thursday.  While the 41 shots in Tampa Bay were nice, note two of Winnipeg's goals came via the power play, which is highly irregular for them. They rank just 27th in the league (16.5 percent) with the man advantage, not to mention the team's penalty killing unit also ranks 27th. Facing a team with a winning record, the Jets are just 9-15 SU this year. The Panthers are 15-9 SU against losing teams. 8* Florida

10* Appalachian State (3:30 ET):  Anytime, I type the name of "App State," the first thing that comes to mind will always be the football team upsetting Michigan back in '07.  But here, as a favorite, the basketball team seems like a pretty good value too.  The Mountaineers, just 6-20 SU on the year, are certainly reeling w/ the last six games all ending up as losses. But not only did they lose as a six-point choice here at home to South Alabama on Thursday; two of their three games previous to that saw them lose by exactly one point. Contrast that with the fortune of today's opponent, Troy, who has two one-point VICTORIES over its last four games, plus another close decision that went their way earlier in the week, a 61-54 upset of aforementioned South Alabama, as a 2.5-point dog on the road. I think it's time for the tables to turn in this Sun Belt matchup.  Lay the short number.

Appalachian State's last win actually came at the expense of Troy.  It was back on January 28th when they pulled a 75-71 upset as 3.5 point road underdogs, 75-71.  Overall, they shot the ball much better than the Trojans in that game. Curiously, the Mountaineers are just 3-7 SU at home despite averaging 76.8 points per game, which is well above their overall season average.  They are basically dead even in points scored vs. allowed here, so there's been some close defeats, including a one-point loss to LA Monroe their last time here. There was another one-point loss back on January 25th (101-100) vs. Georgia Southern (no overtime!) that saw them blow a five-point lead w/ just under one minute remaining. So while the record looks bad, there have been a number of games that could have easily gone the Mounties' way. They are 1-7 SU in games decided by six points or less, the only win coming against today's opponent, Troy.

As for Troy, they have pulled off a total of three upsets in the last four games alone w/ those victories coming by a total of six points.  So, you can see the thin line that exists between the two teams' recent form.  Prior to taking three of the last four games, the Trojans had dropped nine of ten, so they were due for a little "market correction" themselves and responded accordingly. Now, it App State's turn. Troy is only 8 for its last 30 ATS against teams with a losing record (1-8 ATS this season) and they have benefited greatly from terrible shooting from their opponents the L2 games. Appalachian State is due to improve from B2B games where they shot only 30 percent from the field.  10* Appalachian State

8* Georgetown (12:00 ET):  We know the struggles that highly ranked teams have had not only covering, but even winning outright, against unranked foes this season. One of those situations presents itself early Saturday w/ Xavier paying a visit to D.C. to face Georgetown. Now, the Hoyas have already upset the current 8th ranked team in the country, in Cincinnati, 81-72 (+9.5). So, by comparison, this line looks like a real bargain. Granted, G'town has had its fair share of struggles of late. They just lost here at home earlier in the week, as a 2.5 point favorite, to  Seton Hall and that makes it five losses in the last six games overall for them.  But with the exception of an 87-76 defeat at the hands of Butler, they've been close virtually every time. Take the points here.

Xavier is a team currently getting plenty of "run" for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and that's probably based on their record (now 23-3 SU). But I'm not so sure they are deserving of that distinction. The Musketeers have survived their fair share of close calls this season, although I concede that they did look impressive earlier this week in dispatching of Providence. But the 52 pts scored in the first half there were their second most all season before halftime. There were also a number of individual performances unlikely to be duplicated here. One came from Myles Davis, who delivered a triple double. Another was from Trevon Bluiett, who scored 17 points alone in the first half (finished w/ 23). That's more than he'd registered in six of the last seven games. Those banking on the revenge angle here best think again as the Musketeers are 0-4 ATS the L3 seasons seeking revenge for a home loss. This is also a massive lookahead as they have another revenge game, this one vs. #1 Villanova, looming on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Georgetown couldn't seem to buy a shot on Wednesday in their second poor shooting effort of the season against Seton Hall.  Their top two scorers were a combined 10 of 31 from the field, including 2 of 13 from three-point range. This is a team that averages 8.2 made three-pointers per game, most in the Big East.  They shot 51% from the field against Xavier last month, including 10 of 25 from three-point range. A 2-6 SU record in games decided by five points or less indicates this team is more "unlucky" than bad and they're certainly more than capable of upsetting a slightly overrated Xavier team for a second time this season. 8* Georgetown

10* Utah (10:35 ET): Well, look at this. I went AGAINST the Jazz last night as they played a "make up game" in Washington and wound up losing, 103-89, a game the oddsmakers had as a virtual Pick 'em.  The same holds true tonight, but the (big) difference is that Utah is back at home where they are a strong 17-10 straight up (just 9-17 SU on the road) including five straight wins here. Defense is another key here. I wrote in yday's analysis how the Jazz's defensive numbers slip considerably when out on the road. But here at home, they're allowing just 93.4 points per game, a major reason why they are #3 in the league in PPG allowed. That comes in handy here against a Boston team that's due to decline offensively after averaging a stunning 116.8 PPG its last five games.  Look for Utah to bounce back tonight.

Now the Celtics offensive numbers are clearly a bit skewed based on their final game before the All-Star Break where they had to go to overtime to beat the Clippers, 139-134.  Overall, it was their ninth win in the last 11 games.  What's odd, however, is how much better Brad Stevens' team seems to perform when playing w/o rest. They are 9-4 ATS in those games, but only 22-19-1 ATS in all others. The three-year trend, which encompasses Stevens' entire tenure, is something similar. I like this team and have them rated as the third best in the East. But defensively, the number of points allowed recently has not been good and I cannot see them continuing to maintain that blistering pace we've seen on offense. 

Utah is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite (were bet to that role late vs. Washington last night).  Going back to the final game before the Break, they've now dropped B2B games, but before that had won seven in a row and that streak coincided with the return of a healthy Rudy Gobert. Now they've brought Shelvin Mack into the fold to address the lack of depth at point guard. This is a team whose underachieved as the Jazz have the point differential of a 29-win team, which would be fifth best in the West. They are undervalued overall, but especially tonight, which is something we often see when a team is playing in the second night of back to backs. 10* Utah

8* San Antonio (10:35 ET):  The Spurs are off a loss here (and a bad one at that), so you know what that means. Take them! This season, when off a loss, Greg Popovich's crew is a ridiculous 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread with an average point differential of +20.6 points per game. When playing w/o rest, they are 10-0 SU and outscoring their opponents by 12.9 PPG. So history is certainly on San Antonio's side here and it's a very favorable draw in terms of opponent as well with this matchup against the Lakers. Remember, no travel is involved here for the Spurs as they played at Staples Center last night. The Lakers, who covered their last five games before the All-Star Break, are clearly due for a downturn. Lay the points here.

With the decision to rest Kawhi Leonard last night, it almost seemed as if Popovich was "conceding" one to the Clippers.  The 86 points the team scored were their second fewest in a game all season, only ahead of a X-Mas night loss at Houston.  The 34 first half points did mark a season-low and note that it was just the fourth time all year that they did not lead in the 1H.  Leonard (calf) is listed as questionable for tonight, but with or without him, look for a defensive improvement here from the Spurs. They have given up an average of 98.8 points per game the L5 contests, yet remain - by far and away - #1 in the league in terms of defensive efficiency as their 95.4 points allowed per 100 possessions is nearly four points better than the #2 team.  That's the same gap that exists between the #2 and #16 ranked teams. The Lakers are last in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, allowing 108.2 points per 100 possessions.

Despite the five-game ATS win streak, I still have the Lakers rated last in my own personal power ratings.  They are being outscored by 10.7 points per 100 possessions (league worst) while San Antonio is +13.4 in that department, second best in the league (trailing only Golden State).  I still feel that this spread should be closer to -20!   Taking bigger numbers, the Lakers have covered the last two times they've played the Spurs. But San Antonio still remains the league's best ATS team (34-20) and is still slightly ahead of the Warriors in YTD point differential.  8* San Antonio

8* Phoenix (9:35 ET):  Over the last two months, there hasn't been a team any worse than the Suns, who are a ghastly 2-24 straight up over their last 26 games including nine straight losses coming into tonight. As expected, the team finally rid itself of Markief Morris, trading him to the Wizards. A fresh start is probably best for both parties. Before you go writing off Phoenix here, be aware that I did take them when they last hosted Houston, which was earlier this month. Taking a smaller number, they did cover and actually led outright in the fourth quarter. Though they've lost five in a row at home, the Suns remain far more respectable here compared to on the road. As I've said many times throughout the year, Houston simply isn't very good and is undeserving of this price range, particularly on the road. Take the points.

Although it appears that they did not want to, Houston will be keeping Dwight Howard for the rest of the year. Personally, I was not surprised to see the market so cold for him.  But the bottom line here is that with or without Howard, the returns here have been incredibly disappointing. The Rockets have the point differential of only a 24-win team. They're quite lucky that the Western Conference is much weaker this year.  Laying points, the record is just 14-21 against the spread and that includes 0-2 on the road when laying somewhere between -6.5 and -9.  Defensively, this team is a disaster as it gives up 108.6 points per game on the road.  Only Sacramento is worse overall on that end of the floor.  The win earlier in February over Phoenix represents one of just two victories the Rockets have over their last eight games.

Over its last six games, believe it or not, the Suns have been rather competitive.  A 91-78 loss to Dallas on January 31st was totally misleading as they actually led outright in the fourth quarter, similar to when they hosted Houston. They've also covered at Toronto.  Their last two games were against Oklahoma City and Golden State, two of the top three teams in the league, and it was actually a four-point game entering the fourth quarter against the former while they covered vs. the latter. What I'm saying is that the Suns are getting closer under interim HC Earl Watson and here is where they may very well break through w/ their first SU win for him.  8* Phoenix

10* Under Canucks/Flames (9:05 ET):  There's a good chance that none of the NHL's Canadian franchises will be making the playoffs this year. That's rather sad.  Vancouver, who is tied for the fewest number of regulation wins (18) in the Western Conference, also has the most "loser points" (12). They've lost three in a row (all by identical 5-2 scores) as has Calgary and the issue for both clubs has been the same - they're giving up far too many goals. The Flames have actually allowed a total of 20 goals over their last four games and now word comes down that top goaltender Karri Ramo is out for the year. That's not a good sign for a team that's already dead last in the league in terms of goals allowed, but nevertheless I look for an Under here as Vancouver is next to last in the league in goals scored.

The Canucks are playing for a second time in as many night as yday saw them fell 5-2 at home to Anaheim.  Yet again, they struggled to get shots on goal (only 19 vs. the Ducks) and over the L5 games they're averaging just 24.8 per game in that department.  Three of the team's four goals the last two games have come via the power play. That's highly irregular as Vancouver ranks just 26th the league-wide when having the man advantage (17.1 percent).  As I already said, they rank 29th overall in goals scored. In division games, scoring has been particularly low (1.9 goals per game). As for the goaltending, whether it's Ryan Miller or Jacob Markstrom, I expect to start seeing improvement as each netminder has a respectable save percentage, Miller vs. division opponents (.931) and Markstrom on the road (.940).

Calgary's goaltending situation is certainly a lot more tenuous right now. But if there was ever an opponent to "get right" against, it would be this one.  The Over is 17-10-2 in Flames' home games this season and scoring has been on the rise their last five games overall. But that's due for a "market correction" as not only is the team averaged nearly a full goal more than the season-long average during those L5 games, they've also given up 1.5 more per game than per usual.  The last two times these teams have met, both Calgary wins, there were a total of five goals scored. Vancouver is 10-3 Under vs. division foes and 16-6 Under vs. teams w/ a losing record. 10* Under Canucks/Flames

8* Miami (8:05 ET):  The line here is high due to the fact the Heat will be w/o Chris Bosh and probably Hassan Whiteside as well.  But, as I often say, it's wise to "buy low" on bad news and that's what we have here, so let's take advantage accordingly.  Both the Heat and Hawks had somewhat disappointing first halves to the season and I simply do not believe  Atlanta deserves to be in this price range against any decent foe. The line is clearly affected here by Bosh's absence as my own personal power ratings say this number should be closer to -5.5 if both teams were at full strength. I'm not sure Bosh is worth a full four points.  Note that the underdog has won straight up each of the previous three matchups between these two this season, Miami taking the last two.  Take the points.

Miami drew a couple of tough opponents at home right before the All-Star Break, the Clippers and San Antonio, and lost to both.  Those results also serve to drive up the number here.  I'd like to see the Heat get back to playing better defense as over the L5 games, they're allowing an average of 103.8 points per game. That's way above their season average of 96.3 PPG allowed, which is the lowest in the entire Eastern Conference (#2 overall in the league).  Note that at no point this season have the Heat allowed 100+ points in three straight games. They've allowed 100 and 119 the L2 games, so the improvement I'm looking for should be coming. The Hawks have yet to crack the 100-point barrier against the Heat this season, scoring 98, 88 and 87 points.

Atlanta got swept in a home and home by Orlando, but then closed its first half by blowing out the Bulls (in Chicago), 113-90.  There was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this team at the trade deadline as rumors were abound that the core would be broken up. No such thing happened, but still I wonder if the mentality of the front office starts to "trickle down" to the court.  Working on three or more days rest, the Hawks are 1-3 SU/ATS while getting outscored by 11.5 points per game.  They've also struggled in division games, getting outscored despite a winning record. Offensive numbers are set to decrease here as well after averaging 108.6 PPG their last five. 8* Miami

8* Cornell (7:00 ET):  To many, this is nothing more than a matchup of Ivy League bottom feeders, but I see a ton of value on the Big Red here. They beat Dartmouth earlier in the year, 77-73 as 3.5-pt road underdogs. Therefore, it's difficult to understand why they're not getting more credit for being the home team in this rematch. I suppose part of the reason has to be a four-game losing streak, including an outright loss here to Penn last Saturday. But again, a team coming off an outright loss at home should be expected to bounce back their next time out, especially if at home yet again. Dartmouth, though off a double-digit win over Brown (again affecting line here), is nothing special and is a terrible 1-9 SU on the road this season. Lay the short number.

Dartmouth had lost five in a row before winning Saturday.  That victory over Brown was just their second in Ivy League play as they became the last team in the league to reach that benchmark.  It was easily their most impressive performance against a conference opponent as well as they shot 50% overall and dominated Brown on the boards. But these Friday games that the Ivy League always plays haven't treated the Big Green well recently as they're 4-14 L18 ATS including 0-4 ATS this season. Overall, this team is just 18-34 ATS its last 52 games. As I mentioned earlier, they have been dreadful on the road, going 1-9 SU, a mark which includes an 0-7 mark vs. lined opponents. That one road win came at the expense of Maine back in December.

The final score from Cornell's last game was a tad bit misleading in the sense that it was the largest deficit (eight points) the Big Red faced against Penn.  The 56 points allowed after halftime was troubling, but note that Penn had a player go for a career-high.  This will be just the third time that Cornell has been favored this season, but again, taking into account the result of that first meeting vs. Dartmouth, they should be favored by more. Their defense is generally much better here at home and I see their own shooting improving as well (just 40.8% in conference play). On the road, Dartmouth allows its opponents to make 49.9% from the field, including 38.6% from three-point range.  8* Cornell

8* Cal Poly SLO (10:00 ET): At first glance, Cal Poly doesn't seem like a team you'd want to lay this many points with, home or not, especially following a high-scoring effort like the one they just turned in on Saturday (beat UC Riverside 86-78). The Mustangs are only 9-15 SU for the year, below .500 here at home and 0 for their last 6 against the spread following an 80+ point performance. But if you look a little more closely, there's something rather interesting going on with the line here. Despite receiving very little support from bettors, the number has moved up. That's a clear indication to me that the so-called "smart money" is on the home favorite here. Lay the points.

The Big West is not a strong league this year. Only three teams are above .500 in conference play. Cal Davis is not one of them as they just lost 57-48 at home to Long Beach State over the weekend. While it might seem reasonable to call for a bounce-back type performance from the Aggies after shooting a woeful 34.7% from the field Saturday, poor offensive showings have been all too common for this team. Saturday was the third time in the last four games they were held under 60 points and 35% shooting. That's not a good sign considering a 1-5 ATS record this season after scoring 60 pts or less.  For the year, the Aggies are only 2-9 SU away from home while averaging just 62.3 points per game. 

This will be a revenge spot for Cal Poly, who lost 66-52 in Davis last month.  They were four-point favorites there and it ended up being their lowest scoring game in Big  West play to date.  Because of that result, the market has shifted too much against them for the rematch.  Yes, they'd dropped five in a row before Saturday's win, but three of those losses were by six points or less.  What's more telling though is that they've lost five in a row to UC Davis (also 0-5 ATS) and in four of those games they were the favorite.  That won't happen again here.  8* Cal Poly SLO

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): There is no denying that the Central is the toughest division in the sport. The Blues may be in third place, but their 75 points are the fourth most in the entire league right now w/ league-leading Washington (86) the only non-division team w/ more.  Since the All-Star Break, the Blues have won five of seven, including three straight.  The last was a key win over division rival Dallas and marked the fourth time since the Break that they allowed 1 goal or fewer in a victory. All the credit has to go to goaltender Brian Elliott, who has now had to make 15 consecutive starts in the wake of an injury to fellow netminder Jake Allen. This is no temporary trend, however. Elliott has a .932 save percentage this season & the Blues are third in goals allowed (also #1 on the penalty kill). I have them winning again here.

The Kings, meanwhile, come in trending in a different direction. The Pacific Division leaders (w/ just 69 points) have dropped consecutive games for just the second time since mid-December and in the process have scored only one goal.  Going against the red-hot Elliott, it's difficult to see them breaking through here. The team came out the Break strong, most notably w/ a 9-goal effort in Boston on Feb 9th. But perhaps they used up all their goal scoring there (just seven goals in last four games).  Concerning is the recent play of Jonathan Quick between the pipes and that's something you almost never hear. He's allowed multiple goals in regulation his L11 starts and that includes giving up three or more six different times! 

The Blues' stinginess on their own end of the ice was on full display against the top scoring team in the league (Dallas) on Tuesday where they permitted only 18 shots on goal. Elliott stopped all but one and now has a 1.67 goals against average during his stretch of 15 consecutive starts. No team in the West is giving up fewer goals per game and again that's due in large part to a penalty kill which is 31 for its last 32.  I'd like to see more shots from the Blues moving forward, but they were able to win in LA last month despite putting the puck on the net only 16 times. The home team has dropped both meetings this year between these two, something I expect to change here. 10* St. Louis

9* Under Bruins/Predators (8:05 ET): Boston is likely still trying to wipe away the stench off that horrifying 9-2 loss to the Kings nine days ago. Since then, they have won three of four (all on the road) with their own offense picking up the slack. They've scored a total of 17 times, but in the one loss did give up six to Detroit. But in the three wins, they have allowed just five. As I've written about before, goaltender Tuukka Rask has curiously been much better on the road this season (.935 save percentage) and he figures to again be between the pipes here after giving up just one goal in a 2-1 overtime win at Columbus two nights ago. Note Rask was not on the ice in the 6-5 loss to Detroit on Sunday. Even though it looks like Nashville will turn to the struggling Pekka Rinne, Under is the play here.

The Preds are averaging an impressive 3.8 goals per game their last five, but that's come on an average of just 28 shots per game.  That shooting percentage of 13.8% certainly is due to come down, no?  It's not like this team is some kind of offensive juggernaut; they rank just 16th for the year in goals per game.  Something to keep in mind is that two of their last three games have gone into overtime.  Their streak of five straight games scoring 3+ goals in regulation was snapped w/ an OT loss to Dallas Monday here at home, where the club has admittedly struggled of late.  Note though that Boston is a perfect 4-0 Under this season following three consecutive road games and 15-9 Under when taking on a foe w/ a losing record. 

One thing that Nashville does quite well is limit the number of shots on goal from its opponents. They allow 26.5 per game, fewest in the league, and that plays a large role in the fact this team is 5th in Corsi and 2nd in Fenwick for the year. So Rinne really has little excuse for his poor play of late. But he is 3-0-1 w/ a 2.32 GAA lifetime vs. Boston.  He was not between the pipes for the first meeting this season, but the Preds kept the Bruins at bay by limiting them to just 17 shots.  Rask also didn't play there (Bruins lost 3-2) and he has a 2.66 career GAA vs. Nashville.  I look for a low-scoring affair here.  9* Under Bruins/Predators

8* Georgia State (7:30 ET):  GSU backers are not doing very well right now as their team has dropped NINE in a row at the betting window and all but two of those games have also resulted in straight up defeats. A visit from Sun Belt leader Arkansas Little-Rock may not sound especially promising, but I think that the points are in this Thursday night matchup. Note that Georgia State's last two games were both one-point losses where they were favored on the road.  In fact, they've been favored in all but one of the nine games during this monumental ATS slide, that being when they played at...Arkansas Little Rock. The spread for that game was +7.5, so by comparison this number looks like a bargain even though GSU lost that first matchup by 10. Take the points here.

Arkansas Little Rock has just two league losses all season and its 22-3 SU record has them behind only Villanova and Xavier for the best current win percentage in the entire country.  This Trojans team is excellent defensively (just 58.6 PPG allowed), but as you might have guessed, their overall scoring margin isn't nearly as impressive on the road.  They are off a 68-64 upset at UL-Lafayette (were 3.5-pt dogs). But what's interesting is that they have failed to cover each of the last four times they have had to lay points on the SBC road, including two outright losses. One of those came last Saturday at LA Monroe, 86-82. That makes this the Trojans' third straight road game, a tough spot for any team, and they'll also be at Georgia Southern on Saturday. Another "slip up" is quite likely in my estimation for a team that played a sub-250th ranked non-conference schedule.

It was a bad shooting night for Georgia State (34.5%) Saturday at Troy. Their 53 points scored matched their low for the season in conference play, tying what they had vs. Arkansas Little Rock in the first meeting. Offense has admittedly been an issue for the Panthers recently, but defensively they can hang. They allow just 64.6 PPG for the year. Saturday's loss was just brutal as they held Troy to only two made field goals over the final 8:50 of the game. Unfortunately, they came on the final two possessions. One was a three-pointer that made it a one-point game (still in GSU's favor) and the next a layup that won the game w/ just 10 seconds remaining. Again, the previous game was also a one-point loss (at South Alabama) and that went to overtime. This team is due for a break.  8* Georgia State

10* Washington (7:05 ET):  The Wizards have had major problems winning at home this season as their 11-16 SU mark here at the Verizon Center is the third worst home record in the East and sixth worst overall in the league, trailing only Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Phoenix and the Lakers. Not coincidentally, those are the teams that comprise the five worst overall records in the sport. The Wiz, while disappointing, aren't in that category so I would not be surprised to see them improve their play here at home in the second half. It starts by hosting Utah in a game that supposed to be played last month, but had to be postponed due to a winter storm.  With the Jazz having played its last three games before the All-Star Break on the road and a date w/ Boston looming tomorrow night, this is not a good spot for them at all.

Due to the rescheduling, Washington will actually be playing three games in three nights, something no team has had to do since Indiana three years ago. Maybe that catches up with them by the weekend, but honestly there's probably no better time to have this scheduling quirk that right after a long layoff.  Consider that the Wizards are 4-1 SU this season when working on three days rest. The Jazz, meanwhile, are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by an average of 10.5 points per game.  This matchup will be an interesting clash of styles as the Wiz play at the league's fourth fastest pace while Utah plays at the slowest. If Washington can successfully push the tempo, they should be able to simply outscore the Jazz, who average only 97.8 PPG.

Utah is reliant on its defense, which gives up the third fewest number of points per game in the league, trailing only San Antonio and Miami.  But, on the road, the number of points allowed balloons to 99.7 PPG and that's a major reason why this team is a lousy 9-16 straight up in such games. Even worse is that they are 4-14 SU as road underdog and not getting much help, if any, from the oddsmakers here dooms them. This team had been hot before the Break, but that was mainly due to a stretch of home games against inferior opponents. The last time we saw the Jazz, they lost outright in New Orleans, ending a seven-game win streak. The Wizards win here. 10* Washington

8* William & Mary (7:00 ET): W&M is one of just a handful of "original" Division I schools never to make a single NCAA Tournament. The Tribe are desperately trying to change that this year. They come into tonight's game tied for third in the Colonial after dropping B2B games (as favorites), placing them three games back of conference leader UNC Wilmington, who comes calling here. So this is a massive opportunity for W&M to cut into that lead, not to mention that it's a revenge spot to boot as UNCW was able to pull out a 97-94 win over the Tribe last month. That game went into overtime and saw UNCW's Denzel Ingram, who is their second leading scorer, go for a career-best 30 points. As a team, the Seahawks also made 13 of 27 three-point attempts. I do not see history repeating itself, however.  Lay the short number.

You may be totally unaware of this, but UNC Wilmington has won 11 in a row, the third longest active streak in the country and a school record. The Seahawks last loss occurred all the way back on January 7th, at Towson by a score of 76-60.  They are +7.2 points per game in conference play, but just 7-6 ATS as more often than not they are favored.  Over the L6 games though, they've gone 5-1 ATS only failing to cover when asked to lay double digits against Elon.  Saturday saw them down James Madison, 78-68 (as 9.5-pt favorites), due to going 10 of 28 from three-point range and converting 18 Dukes' turnovers into 19 points. With William & Mary holding visitors to just 39.3% shooting overall and 28.6% from three-point range here at Kaplan Arena, I don't see UNCW benefiting from such luxuries again. They did shoot only 39.3% overall vs. JMU.

The 99 points allowed by William & Mary on Saturday (at Towson) were the most they'd given up in a game since 1996.  They were actually two-point favorites in that contest, but like Hofstra two games ago, the Tigers couldn't miss. Again though, W&M has been a stout team defensively over the course of the season, so I view these last two performances as a blip on the radar.  The Tribe certainly has no issues scoring as they average 79.8 PPG on 48.5% shooting for the year here at home. With a double digit scoring differential here, I think home court makes all the difference in the world tonight as the Tribe get their revenge and move up in the CAA standings. 8* William & Mary

10* Over Nevada/San Jose State (10:00 ET): Some of the recent shooting percentages in games involving either Nevada or San Jose State, whether it be themselves or their opponents, have been downright putrid.  Case in point, Nevada's last three opponents have all shot below 35% from the field w/ Fresno State being at a downright awful 29.9% Saturday (yet that game still finished up 77-72 in the Wolfpack's favor due to overtime). With San Jose State, they had held three straight opponents below 35% shooting (two under 30%) prior to a 74-58 loss at New Mexico on Saturday where they shot just a hair over 30 percent themselves. Speaking of bad shooting, that is what we have seen from these two sides the last two times they've met, especially from Nevada behind the arc where they were 0 for 17!  This total is quite low and I figure the shooting will improve.  Take the Over.

It's six straight Unders for San Jose State, but before that they had gone 10-5 Over to start the season.  Over the last five, the Spartans are giving up an average of just 63.8 PPG.  This has been a pretty good defensive team for much of the season, but that five-game average is about 10 points below the overall season average. Offensively, they average 76.4 PPG at home this year, but are at only 65.0 PPG their L5 games overall. So, you can see how a return to season-long averages would lead one to believe that an Over is forthcoming. Also, this Nevada team averages 76.2 PPG and on the road gives up 75.4. Only four totals have been lower for the Wolfpack in MWC play and for SJSU that number is three.  So you can see that there's some value here.

The last four meetings between these two have all stayed Under lower totals. But with the rules changes in college basketball this season, it is not a surprise to me to see tonight's O/U line much higher. As mentioned earlier, Nevada can't be any worse from three-point range than they were the L2 games vs SJSU. Similarly, the Spartans are just 14 of their last 56 from behind the arc vs. the Wolfpac. Don't those shooting percentages almost HAVE to go up here?  The Over is 8-3 in Nevada road games this season.  10* Over Nevada/San Jose State

10* Colorado (8:05 ET): It's getting to be a little bit of desperation time for the teams that once called and still call the province of Quebec home. The Avalanche (former Nordiques) currently occupy the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They are fifth in the Central, a division that likely sends both Wild Cards. Right now, it's a four point lead for the Avs over the Wild for that last spot. Meanwhile, Montreal's status is far more precarious as the Canadiens are six points off the playoff pace in the Eastern Conference, a stunning development for a team that started the season in such grand fashion (9-0). Things just haven't been the same since goaltender Carey Price was lost to injury and with his return date seemingly nowhere in sight, I say it's still time to fade the Habs, at least here.

The Avs didn't have to face Price in the first meeting w/ the Habs this season and the result ended up being 6-1 in their favor, despite a 40-24 shot deficit.  So you can see the kind of dropoff that is typical between the pipes for Montreal when Price is not in there. Lately, things have grown even more dire. They are allowing a ghastly 4.5 goals per game during a 1-6-1 road stretch and the last two results have been downright embarrassing as they were outscored 12-6 in losses to bottom feeders Buffalo & Arizona.  That puts the Canadiens' record at 8-22-1 since December 3rd, worst in the league during that time. They'll likely turn back to Mike Condon tonight despite his poor .868 save percentage his L4 outings. That's just the current state of things in Montreal. The team is 5-10 SU after allowing 4+ goals in its previous game.

Meanwhile, Colorado happens to be off an embarrassing loss to Buffalo themselves (4-1) on Sunday.  It was their fifth loss in the last seven games. But they are 9-4 SU this season after scoring 1 or 0 goals their previous game and I think the goaltending situation here is more secure despite Semon Varlamov getting pulled against the Sabres. Varlamov still has a respectable .916 save percentage his L4 starts and had stopped 69 of 74 shots the two previous games. I also expect the Avs' power play (1 for its last 23 at home) to break out of its slump here facing a Montreal PK unit which gave up a pair of goals Monday vs. the 'Yotes.  10* Colorado

8* Indiana State (8:00 ET):  Despite only beating Bradley 75-60 (were -17.5) their last time out, Illinois State has still covered the spread by a cumulative 46 points its last four games due to pulling off three consecutive upsets prior to Sunday's win. Meanwhile, things have gone the opposite way at the betting window for Indiana State of late. Larry Bird's alma mater is 0-5 ATS its last five games and has lost outright four times despite being favored in every one of those games. Buying low and selling high is something I constantly preach and here we can do both. These teams have performed quite differently in games decided by six points or less this season w/ Illinois State going 6-2 straight up and Indiana State going 1-5 SU.  Take the points here.

It wound up not being that close at all the first time these two squads met w/ Indiana State prevailing 77-65 in Terre Haute despite facing a 34-28 halftime deficit. The key there was the Syacamores going 9 of 21 from three-point range while the Redbirds were only 5 of 24. Neither team shot particularly well overall and we should probably expect more of the same tonight as both squads are below 42% from the field for the season. But in a low-scoring game, points are obviously at a premium and that always makes the underdog look more attractive. Especially when the dog happened to win the previous meeting by double digits and doesn't really seem to be getting credit for that victory. The revenge angle can often be overrated by the linesmakers/public and such is the case here w/ a line swing that's far too severe from the first meeting.

Two of Indiana State's last four losses have come in overtime, one of them in double overtime.  Saturday was a tough one in Missouri State as they actually led the Bears by four early in the extra period. Again, this is a team that has actually been favored in each of its last six games. But as an underdog, the Sycamores are 7-4 ATS w/ four outright upsets.  As for Illinois State, they treated me quite well two Saturdays ago w/ an upset of Wichita State as 13-point home underdogs and that carried over to another upset in the next game, as 10-pt pups over Evansville. But those results along w/ a double digit victory (shot nearly 55%) over a bad Bradley team have the Redbirds clearly overvalued for this one.   8* Indiana State

8* Baylor (9:00 ET): The Bears are off a very bad loss on Saturday, one that saw them fall short of the oddsmakers projection by a whopping 29 points. They were favored to beat Texas Tech by 10.5 here in Waco, yet ended up losing 84-66 due to the Red Raiders exploding for 51 points in the second half and finishing with an amazing stat line of 57.8 FG%/56.3 3-pt%/83.1 FT%. Needless to say, I expect Baylor to be much better defensively in this one as they seek to avoid a fourth loss in the last five games. Despite recent form, the Bears still remain in the Top 25 and this is the first time they've dropped B2B home games all season. They've already beaten Iowa State on the road and now get a chance to do the same in the Ferrell Center where they are 43-9 SU the L3 seasons. Lay the short number.

Iowa State comes in having just beaten Texas over the weekend. But they themselves had previously dropped three of four. In fact, the Cyclones haven't won B2B games since January.  I had the Over in Saturday's win (cashed rather easily), but outside of Ames this team's scoring average predictably dips and that's why they are only 4-4 SU in "true" road games. 89 points weren't enough at home on January 6th against the Bears, so it's difficult to imagine them winning here. I also find it difficult to imagine that we'll be seeing anything close to the second half vs. Texas where the Cyclones shot 67 percent from the field and held the Longhorns to just one point in the final 2:30 of the game. Making more free throws than Texas even attempted helped as well. Now on the road, they likely won't get to enjoy such an advantage.

Meanwhile, Baylor is an impressive 6-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points its last game, including a perfect 4-0 this season. We just saw them in this spot when they downed Kansas State (on the road), 82-72, the game after losing at West Virginia by a score of 80-69.  The Bears have beaten the Cyclone three straight times and four of the last five. Here at home, they are still outscoring opponents by 14.2 points per game for the season.  Having covered just one of their last eight games overall, this is a good opportunity to "buy low" on Scott Drew's team. ISU is 0 for 2 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a home loss. 8* Baylor

10* Texas A&M (9:00 ET): What is going on down in College Station? A&M had worked its way up as high as #5 in the rankings, but has since dropped five of six, including four in a row! All five losses came to conference foes and that leaves them behind Kentucky, LSU and South Carolina in the SEC standings. Consider though that it's often a thin line between the "jaws of victory" and the "agony of defeat" and that four of A&M's last five losses have been by five points or less. Four of them also occurred out on the road.  After going 0 for 2 on the road last week, the Aggies are back at home tonight and hosting an Ole Miss team primed for a letdown after beating Arkansas by 16 in Oxford over the weekend. Lay the number.

Texas A&M is 13-1 SU this year in College Station, winning by an average margin of 18.1 points per game.  Needless to say, that's quite impressive. The one loss came their last time here, 81-78 to South Carolina, a game where they were favored to win by double digits. The Gamecocks shot much better than the average visitor to College Station in that game, including 57.1 percent from three-point range.  Consider that for the season, A&M opponents are barely above 39% overall here. The Aggies certainly shot well themselves in Saturday's loss at LSU (55.8%), but could not overcome a -10 turnover differential and -17 point differential at the free throw line. That is how a seven point second-half lead quickly evaporates.  As I often state, "buying low" on a team is the way to go and right now A&M's stock is probably at its 2016 nadir.  So jumping on board now is the way to go.

Ole Miss has covered six of its last seven, including three straight, so they are at the opposite end of the recent spectrum compared to A&M.  The Rebels benefited from Arkansas shooting only 31.6% from the field Saturday, the lowest percentage by an opponent in SEC play.  In four games as a road underdog in conference play, the Rebels have lost every time, including by 22 at Kentucky.  A&M has probably one of the stronger home court edges in the entire league. Senior point guard Anthony Collins and fellow backcourt mate Jalen Jones were both limited due to sickness/injury in the LSU game, so a return to health should bring about a drastically different result. 10* Texas A&M

10* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): It was a tough 2-1 loss for the Lightning right here at home on Saturday as they fell to the Blues 2-1 despite a rather significant 38-21 edge in shots.  The loss leaves them in fourth in the Atlantic, tied w/ Pittsburgh for the final Wild Card in the Eastern Conference at 64 points.  The team has been playing much better of late (12-5 L17), but cannot afford another slip up due to the depth in the conference this year. Meanwhile, San Jose makes the long trip fresh off a 4-1 win over bottom-feeder Arizona on Saturday. However, the thirdplace team in the Pacific has alternated losses and wins over its last eight games, so you know what that means for tonight. I think the pattern holds true.

The usually reliable Ben Bishop has certainly been a "little off" for the Lightning of late w/ an .889 save percentage his L4 starts. He stopped only 19 of 21 shots on Saturday and Lightning opponents now have an usually high 12.4 shooting percentage the L5 games. It's not like TB is giving up a ton of shots either; they're actually outshooting foes by nearly six shots per game over that timeframe. I expect Bishop to start to regain past form, sooner rather than later.  He has a .925 save percentage at home this season and .932 save percentage against non-conference competition.  Consider that it took a controversial decision after a video review for the Lightning to go down in their last game. They remain 18-9-2 on home ice for the year.

The Sharks have actually been playing well of late, yet they dropped a spot in the standings due to division rival Anaheim being even hotter. What's interesting about this team is that they are below .500 at home, yet a league-best 18-8-2 on the road.  I see that unusual discrepancy starting to rectify itself moving forward.  The Sharks are actually being outshot on the road this season, so there's been some good fortune here.  Martin Jones has been the better of their two goaltenders recently, but did allow five goals at Nashville back on February 6th. He figures to be under siege a little more here after San Jose allowed just 45 shots total the last two games against bottom feeders Calgary and Arizona. The Sharks are just 7-11 after scoring 4+ goals in their last game. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Over Jets/Hurricanes (7:05 ET): Carolina continues its recent "feast or famine" approach to scoring Saturday w/ a much-needed 6-3 win over the Islanders. In the team's last four wins, they have scored five or more goals every time. But, they have also lost four times over their last eight games and in those four losses, they have managed just one goal every time. I would imagine that we'll get something "in between" tonight and that's just fine considering Winnipeg has scored multiple goals in every game since their last before the All-Star Break. These two also played to a 5-3 final, in the Hurricanes' favor, last month. That game saw a combined 65 shots on goal. I'm not impressed with the goaltending on either side here. Take the Over.

The 'Canes last game does represent their highest scoring effort of the season to date. Note, however, that they were missing leading scorer Justin Faulk and he should be back out on the ice this evening.  My main concern is in goal as the team likely will turn to Eddie Lack, who did not fare well the last time he faced the Jets (with Vancouver), allowing five goals. Lack has a .901 save percentage for the year, which isn't very good. Note that it was Cam Ward in goal the last time these teams hooked up and he made 33 saves in the win. Note helping matters either is the fact the 'Canes will be down a key defensemen (Mark Stuart) for this matchup.

Winnipeg has been averaging 35.4 shots per game over its last five contest and had 36 the first matchup w/ Carolina. So, I expect them to create plenty of scoring opportunities for themselves in this one. However, coming off a rather strong effort in goal his last time out, I'm not so sure I trust Ondrej Pavalec in this spot as he too has a save percentage barely above .900 for the season.  The Jets' last two victories were both low scoring (2-1 finals), but note that the other five games in their last seven all went Over the total w/ the winning side scoring at least five times in all but one of them. After going just 1 for their last 16 on the power play, might the Jets be poised to finally break through here?  The Over is 8-5 this season in Carolina home games if the total is 5.0.  8* Over Jets/Hurricanes

10* Butler (7:00 ET):  This is an excellent spot to once again 'buy low' on a team, in this case Butler, who is off a loss here at home (Xavier) and has legit revenge for an eight-point loss suffered at the hands of Creighton last month.  Yes, the revenge angle can be overrated. But, in this case, I don't see the Bulldogs getting beat twice by an inferior opponent nor do I see them dropping B2B home games. Butler has been a bit of a disappointment in Big East play, going just 6-7 SU after an 11-1 start to the season.  Their NCAA Tournament hopes are in dire need of a big win and considering how good they've been at home so far, here is where they'll get one. Creighton is at a disadvantage of playing its second road game in four days. Lay the points.

At home, Butler is 10-3 SU w/ an average margin of victory of 17.5 points per game. Remember that includes losing to Xavier on Saturday.  In that game, the Bulldogs shot just 33.3 percent from the field compared to 56.9 percent for their opponents.  That's highly irregular as we've been used to seeing Butler shoot the ball quite well here at Hinkle Fieldhouse (49.9%) while holding the opposition to 40.3%. They ended up being held 25 points below their overall scoring average for the season. It was their second lowest scoring game of the season w/ only a 60-55 loss to Villanova surpassing it. But if you don't think a team can bounce back, look no further than Xavier, who came in and shot so well after being held to 30 percent (including 1 of 21 from 3-pt range!) its previous game. Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones were held to a combined 14 points vs. Xavier, just the 11th time in 95 career games played together that they were both held to single digits. 

That awful shooting display by Xavier came against Creighton, who then followed that up w/ a road win over Marquette on Saturday.  The Blue Jays have won and covered three straight heading into tonight, something they had previously not accomplished all season. The key to the win streak has been on defense as Creighton has held all three opponents below their YTD average. But, as detailed above, Butler is poised to "break out" offensively in this one. Just six days ago, the Bulldogs won on the road against a good Seton Hall team.  They led Creighton on the road (by five) at the half in the first matchup, but made only one three-pointer in the second half while the Blue Jays wound up going to the FT line 29 times.  Look for those discrepancies to rectified this time around. 10* Butler

10* Over Penguins/Panthers (7:35 ET):  Considering each team's respective place in the standings and nearly identical records over the L10 games, it's not readily apparent that these are two teams trending in different directions.  Florida, the surprise leader in the Atlantic, has dropped four of its last five though after coming out of the All-Star Break strong. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has won seven of its last nine overall.  However, I wouldn't be too comfortable backing the Pens on the road in this spot, so instead we turn to the total.  It's been back to back low scoring games for Pittsburgh while Florida has been shut out twice in its last four. That being said, I expect both sides to break out offensively here. Take the Over.

The Penguins' offense has been surprisingly dormant for much of the year as they rank only 17th in the league in goals per game. After being shut out at home by the Rangers last Wednesday, they needed a shootout just to pull out a 2-1 win over Carolina (I had 'em!) two nights later. One could point to the continued absence of Evgeni Malkin for the recent slide on offense, but they've still managed to average 32.0 shots per game in the five w/o him, so they're definitely still finding plenty of chances to score.  On the flip side, they're also giving up plenty of shots. Remember that this is a team that allowed 11 goals in its first two games after the Break. The Over is 6-3 this season when the Pens are playing w/ exactly two days rest.

Florida has allowed a total of 14 goals in its last three games, including five each in the back to back losses.  I flat out question this team's ability to stay atop the division, let alone advance far into the playoffs. Goaltender Roberto Luongo has a pretty terrible .864 save percentage his L4 games & not a single Under has cashed during that time.  The Over is 4-1 in the Panthers' last five games overall.  I would not be surprised to see a power play goal (or two) scored tonight as both of the teams have struggled w/ the man advantage recently, going a combined 1 for the last 25.  It's the old "just due" factor there.  The first two meetings of the season both resulted in 3-2 Pittsburgh victories. It's time to get Over that 5 goal hump, so to speak.  10* Over Penguins/Panthers

10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET):  This is a situation where we simply must take advantage of a team shooting the ball so well its last three games, that regression is almost inevitable. Wofford has connected on 61.5%, 55.8% and 58.2% of its field goals the L3 games, respectively.  Not surprisingly, all were wins and overall the Terriers have taken six of their last seven games. But the road has been a challenge for this team, particularly on the defensive end, as they are just 4-11 SU away from home this season. Situationally, this spot is tough as this will be their third games in five nights. Meanwhile, UNC Greensboro got the weekend off & that's a significant edge heading into this Southern Conference rematch.

UNC Greensboro has had a tough season and their struggles have continued recently w/ three consecutive losses, the most recent coming at last place VMI as 5.5-point favorites. Earlier in the year, they also lost at Wofford, 87-76 as seven-point dogs. Both teams shot the ball (over 50%) well overall in that matchup, but the difference was where Wofford did most of its damage. The Terrier were 11 of 23 from three-point range (UNC Greensboro was 5 of 17), not to mention 24 of 26 from the free throw line (UNCG was only 7 of 16!). I highly doubt those marks will be repeated again here. As you might have guessed, UNCG is a more impressive team at home (only 1 road win) as they shoot 38% from behind the arc.  The Spartans fell into a big early hole Thursday at VMI (trailed 44-27 at the half) as hot shooting by the opponent burned them. That should not happen again here at home.

Not only does Wofford have the added burden of playing for a third time in five days, but they also have a big showdown (at home) vs. second place Furman looming this weekend.  Having already beaten the Spartans this year, this shapes up as somewhat of lookahead spot for them. There is just no way they are going to be able to continue their recent ridiculously hot shooting and defensively there are issues here. On the road, opponents are shooting 50% against them this season, including 37.9% from three-point range. I look for UNCG to have a big breakthrough performance here. 10* UNC Greensboro

9* Anaheim (4:05 ET): Maybe an early start time doesn't help the Ducks here, but the opponent sure will. The opponent in question here would be Calgary, who just got beat by Arizona Friday night and probably has the worst overall special teams in the league (29th on power play, 29th in penalty killing). Over the last three seasons, Anaheim is a perfect 8-0 SU at home vs. the Flames, but just 4-4 on the road. That being said, they did shut them out here (1-0) right before the New Year and are 2 for 2 against them this season. After a terrible start to the season, the Ducks seem to have gotten back on track as they now have somewhat of a firm hold on third place in the Pacific due to going 8-1-1 their L10 games. I'm on them here.

Calgary's chances of scoring on the power play this afternoon seem rather remote considering that Anaheim is tops in the league in penalty killing this year at 88.3 percent. Now, as we all know, scoring (or rather lack of it) had been the reason for the Ducks getting off to such a slow start this year. But over the L5 games they've scored 3.4 goals per game on an average of 35.2 shots. Overall, the team is 15-4-2 its last 21 games. There is a bit of a concern in goal here as John Gibson is dealing w/ an upper body injury and may have to sit out tonight.  But then again, Frederik Andersen is 7-0-1 his L8 starts (1.83 GAA), so I'd say there's really nothing to worry about. Going back to December 27th, the Ducks have outshot their opponents in 10 straight contests.

Calgary, meanwhile, has been outshot in each of its last four games, often by a wide margin. Their aforementioned penalty kill has just been terrible the L2 games, going 10 for 16 (that's a lot of penalties to be taking). The fact they've been able to average 3.2 goals per game their last five is a bit fluky considering the average number of shot attempts for them over that same time is only 26.2. Like the Ducks, they too have an issue in goal, that being an injury to Kari Ramo, which leaves Jonas Hiller and he has a pretty woeful .889 save percentage here at home this season. Hiller was the one between the pipes in Friday's 4-1 loss at Arizona.  Considering the Ducks just won in Chicago, this would appear to be a rather cheap price. 9* Anaheim