9* Cincinnati (12:35 ET): The Reds find themselves in an unenviable spot Thursday afternoon, that being in a position to get swept at home in a four-game series. It’s a good Giants team they are facing, but I like to take home teams in this spot. A sense of pride typically kicks in for the home team when they are facing the prospect of being swept. Not that Cincy wasn’t motivated to win any of the L3 days, but I just can’t see them losing four in a row, especially after being shut out last night. The Reds are not a bad team. 

Cincinnati has actually lost five in a row to the Giants dating back to a previous series in SF. The Giants have been incredibly impressive to this point as they are ahead of the far more heavily hyped Dodgers and Padres in the NL West and have the best win percentage in all of MLB. It’s all about run prevention for them as they are allowing the second fewest runs per game. Cincinnati is the highest scoring team in the National League though and I don’t think they can be “kept down” for four consecutive games.

This is only the second time all season that the Reds have lost three in a row. The only longer losing skid was a real ugly one back in April when they dropped seven in a row. Tyler Mahle looks to play “stopper” on the mound today. Mahle has been the team’s most reliable starter this year, with a 6-2 TSR and he’s allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of those eight starts. For the third straight game, the Giants are starting a former Cincinnati pitcher, in this case Johnny Cueto. After spending time on the DL, Cueto has not been all that effective in his L2 starts, giving up seven runs and 16 hits in 7 ⅔ IP. Reds avoid the sweep here. 9* Cincinnati

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners aren’t a team that gets my endorsement very often, but at home off B2B losses to the Tigers is probably a good time to “jump on.” Getting swept at home by a team with the worst run differential in the sport would be quite embarrassing and it’s a fate that I believe the M’s will be determined to avoid Weds night. The Tigers, who have won seven of nine since a brutal 2-13 stretch, got a no-hitter (already the 5th of this MLB season) last night from Spencer Turnbull. But one game shouldn’t alter the perception of a team that’s been outscored by 61 runs so far this season. 

So Seattle was no-hit last night and has put only one run on the board in this series. But they get a break tonight in that they will be facing Tarik Skubal. The Tigers have lost all six Skubal starts so far with the southpaw posting a 6.26 ERA and 1.537 WHIP. He’s 0-3 on the road with a 9.00 ERA and 1.909 WHIP. While Detroit has been getting good pitching recently, that streak figures to end tonight and this is still the lowest scoring team in the American League. 

Now Seattle starter Logan Gilbert didn’t exactly have an outstanding 2021 debut when he made his 1st start last week against Cleveland. He allowed two homers and four runs in four innings. The good news for Gilbert, who is widely considered the best pitching prospect in the organization, is he had five strikeouts and zero walks. I think he’ll be a lot better here against a weaker opponent. The Mariners’ offense figures to wake up as well. 10* Seattle

8* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): Given that the Lakers are still listed as the odds on favorite to win the Western Conference, it seems highly unlikely that they would fail to make it out of the NBA’s first ever “play-in tournament.” Then again, it’s pretty remarkable that the defending NBA Champs are even involved in this. But injuries to both LeBron James and Anthony Davis really derailed this team’s regular season and they fell all the way to 7th in the Western Conference. All things considered, it’s really an incredible matchup we have here with the reigning champs taking on the former three-time champion Warriors. 

Golden State, as was expected, improved dramatically from LY’s disastrous 15-win campaign. Steph Curry (injured most of last season) being back was responsible for most of that improvement as the former MVP led the league in scoring at 32 points per game. But let’s be clear that this is not the “same old Warriors team” of a few seasons ago. Believe it or not, they were only favored in 31 of their 72 regular season games. So they actually “overachieved” in getting to 39-33 SU. They were pretty good at home (25-11 SU, 23-13 ATS), but the road was a different story as their record was 14-22 SU and ATS. 

Bettors seemed to think that this spread opened too high, but I now see a pretty substantial discount on the Lakers here. If anything, Golden State figures to be a pretty public dog Wednesday night. It’s rare that the public isn’t siding with LeBron, but it’s the case here. Not only are James and Davis back, but so too is Dennis Schroeder. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and I view this as the ultimate “buy low” spot. Kelly Oubre Jr is out for Golden State. The Lakers won the season series 2-1 with the wins coming by 31 and 26 points. The one loss saw them ahead by 14 going into the 4Q. 8* LA Lakers

8* Washington (7:40 ET): Had this particular starting pitching matchup taken place in 2015 (the year that Jake Arrieta won the Cy Young), then perhaps I’d be looking at betting the Under. But in 2021, Max Scherzer vs. Arrieta is a lopsided mismatch, clearly in the former’s favor. Scherzer comes into Wednesday’s start sporting a 2.10 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He’s 2-0 this month with a no decision. Those three starts have seen Scherzer go 21 ⅔ innings and give up only two runs (both solo HRs) on nine hits. He’s fanned 30 opposing hitters while walking just two. 

Arrieta also won his last time out, though he gave up two home runs. He was fortunate that no one was on base either time. It was also fortunate that he was facing the lowly Detroit Tigers. Despite that win, Arrieta hasn’t been all that great lately with a 5.87 ERA his L3 starts. He was coming off a two-week stint on the injured list before facing the Tigers. Against the Nationals, he’s just 2-3 with a 4.45 ERA in 17 career starts. Now compare that to Scherzer, who is 4-2 with a 2.75 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Cubs. 

Scherzer will have to be at his best here as the Cubs have taken the first two games of this series. I had them on Monday, but the pitching matchup was much more favorable to them that day. Thanks to some reshuffling in the lineup, the Cubs’ offense has woken up a bit in a 4-1 stretch. But they figure to be quieted back down tonight. They are still hitting only .212 in games vs. RH starters and Scherzer is a righty. 8* Washington

10* Memphis (7:35 ET): San Antonio is NOT a team I see winning in this play-in tournament. There was a five-game gap between them and 9th place Grizzlies, which is larger than the gap between 7th and 10th in the Eastern Conference. I thought the Spurs were a weaker team than New Orleans, who didn’t even make the play-in tourney. Greg Popovich’s team did not have a good close to the regular season, losing the last four games as well as 10 of the last 12. Five of those were double digit defeats, three of them by 22+ points. 

Memphis lost the regular season finale, 113-101 at Golden State, denying them an opportunity to take on the Lakers for the right to be the 7-seed. Though beating the Lakers was probably unlikely, it still would have been an easier path to the playoffs for the Grizzlies as they’d have two chances. Now they must win here just to earn the right to face the Lakers/Warriors loser for the 8-seed.

While the road team took all three regular season matchups between San Antonio & Memphis, the Grizzlies will be glad to get this one at home where they’ve won four in a row. They’d won five straight overall before the loss to Golden State. They are simply better at both ends of the floor than the Spurs, who have posted B2B losing season for the first time since the mid-1980s. Following a DD loss, the Grizzlies have gone 15-5 ATS this season (it was 113-101 at Golden State). The Spurs have lost 14 of 17 to teams with a better than .500 record and have let four of their last five opponents shoot 50% or better from the field. Memphis has let only four of its last 19 shoot that well. 10* Memphis

8* West Ham (3:15 ET): An ill-timed slump for West Ham has all but ruined their chances of Champions League qualification (which admittedly would have been a stunner) and now qualifying for the Europa League is even in danger. The Hammers have won just one of their last five (with three losses) and are level with Tottenham at 59 points. But an inferior goal differential has them in seventh and in desperate need of three points this week. Thankfully for the cause, West Brom should be totally demoralized after suffering a heartbreaking 3-2 defeat last week against Liverpool. I look for West Ham to take this one. 

In the Tottenham writeup, I mentioned there’s a quintet of clubs behind Man City that should be viewed as being “pretty equal.” Based on their goal differential, I do not consider West Ham to be among that quintet. However, there’s no denying their superiority over West Brom, who is headed back to the Championship next season as their relegation has been confirmed. Last week was a new level of heartbreak for the Baggies as Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson Becker scored on a header in the 95th minute to break a 2-2 tie. That ensured West Brom would stay even with Fulham for the fewest number of EPL wins this season (5). Also no other side has conceded more goals than West Brom’s 70.

West Ham’s 28 away points this season match a club record set in 1985-86 when they finished third in the table. So even a draw here and it’s a new record, but that isn’t what the Hammers want as they try to cement their place among the top seven. Given my affinity for Tottenham and Arsenal this week plus Everton having a chance to pick up points at the expense of the Wolves, anything but the full three here for West Ham would be unsatisfactory. They won the reverse fixture 2-1 in January and should complete the first league double over West Brom since 2005-06. 8* West Ham

7* Arsenal (2:00 ET): Unbeaten in the last four competitions (3 W 1 D), ninth place Arsenal has been able to stay alive in their pursuit of European football next season. They are four points adrift of 7th place, which is where they would need to finish to get into qualifying for next season’s Europa League. Given the recent struggles of both West Ham and Everton - the two sides directly ahead of them in the EPL table - the Gunners chances of moving up seem more likely than not, especially with favorable upcoming matchups against Crystal Palace (here) and Brighton Hove & Albion these final two weeks.

What I like about this matchup for Arsenal is they’ve had more time off to prepare. A full week has passed since their impressive 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge over top four Chelsea. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace was in action Sunday when they came from behind to defeat Aston Villa 3-2. Arsenal has won three straight and prevailing at Stamford Bridge is obviously not easy, but then again the Gunners have done quite well on their travels this season, going six in a row w/o a defeat. 

While Arsenal’s away record is strong, Crystal Palace has not exactly been stout on home soil this season. Only West Brom and Newcastle have conceded more home goals than CP’s 29 and they’ve given up eight in the last three home matches. While the Eagles have won two of three to move up to 13th place, they can finish no higher than 11th and chances of moving up are slim with Arsenal and Liverpool as the final two fixtures. Remember that Arsenal has a 25-year streak of playing European football on the line here. You’ve got to figure they’ll continue to finish strong and having failed to beat CP five straight times adds to the motivation. 7* Arsenal

7* Tottenham (1:00 ET): This was most definitely Man City’s “year” in the Premier League. They’ve already been rewarded for being the dominant team, but behind them are five sides I view as being pretty equal. Tottenham is among that quintet. While it’s looking less and less likely the Spurs will be able to qualify for the Champions League (must finish in the top four), European football (Europa League) is still a lock for next season if they are able to finish in the top six. They are currently level with West Ham in sixth place following last week’s dominant 2-0 win over Wolverhampton. I see another dominant win here.

Aston Villa is a middle of the table side, but unfortunately for them it’s not looking like they will finish in the top half. Their poor run of form continued last week with a 3-2 loss to Crystal Palace as they blew a 2-1 halftime lead. Villa has now won only two of their last 12, a run which goes back to the beginning of March. Truthfully, this side was never really able to get back on track following a COVID-19 outbreak at the start of 2021 and the absence of Jack Grealish (returned vs. CP) didn’t help matters either. They’ve also conceded multiple times in five of the last seven matches.

Tottenham has not been a friendly opponent for Villa in recent seasons. The Spurs have won 12 of the previous 13 fixtures (only loss in 2015) including 2-0 back in March. With Harry Kane’s impending departure looming, it’s critical that the Spurs finish in the top six. It has been said that Kane is fully “committed” for the final two matches of the season and he should be as he’s currently level with Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah for the “Golden Boot” (most individual goals scored) and he’s struck each of the previous four matches vs. Villa. This one means so much to the Spurs and I expect them to get the full three points. 7* Tottenham

10* Over Wizards/Celtics (9:05 ET): The winner of this play-in game automatically becomes the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. Certainly, recent form has been quite different for the Wizards and Celtics. Washington stormed its way into the playoffs by winning 15 of its last 20 games and the five losses were all by four points or less, three of them by exactly one point. Meanwhile, Boston lost Jaylen Brown for the season and limped to the finish with losses in five of their last six games. On the whole, the Celtics definitely had a better regular season. But there’s no denying the Wiz are the “hotter” team entering this game.

What I anticipate Tuesday night is a high-scoring game. Washington plays at the fastest tempo in the entire league and despite the late season surge, they still allow the most points per game (118.5) in the league. You’d have to go back to April 10th to find the last time they didn’t score at least 115 themselves in a game. They’ve also allowed 120+ in seven of their last nine games. Before going Under in the final three regular season games, the Wizards had gone Over six straight times. Boston is also on a three-game Under streak, but was 8-1 Over the previous nine games. 

 All three regular season meetings between these teams did stay Under, which is surprising to me. Looking back, the Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings, even more surprising. But tonight should snap that streak as I anticipate both teams to shoot better than they did in any of those aforementioned matchups. Neither team has shot 50% or better in any of those L5 meetings with the three-point shooting generally being not good. That’s uncharacteristic for both sides. The Over is 6-0 in the L6 Boston home games. 10* Over Wizards/Celtics

8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:45 ET): Again, it’s a real “rogue’s gallery” that I’m going with today, but the Pirates - like the Twins - have revenge for a prior sweep and they have gone a respectable 4-4 their L8 games. They just split four games with a very good Giants team that’s in first place in the NL West. The Cardinals are in first place in the Central, but were just swept out in San Diego over the weekend. That series saw them score all of 10 runs and they’ve put only 13 on the board the last five games. Take the Bucs +1.5 in this one.

The previous series between these teams was in Pittsburgh, so the Pirates being the road team doesn’t really concern me. I also want to say that I was not surprised to see the Cardinals get swept out in San Diego. The run prevention we’ve seen from them thus far seems unsustainable. Fielding has been elite and the pitching staff does a great job in not giving up many home runs. But the KW rate of the starting staff has been far from impressive to this point. To illustrate my point about how the Cards have been a bit lucky when it comes to run prevention, just look at tonight’s starter John Gant. While he has a 1.84 ERA in seven starts, his WHIP is 1.631. He’s getting away with putting a lot of runners of base. 

JT Brubaker starts the series opener for Pittsburgh. I like the way he’s pitched thus far with a 2.58 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in seven starts. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and just threw six solid innings in a 7-2 win over Cincinnati his last time out. Pirate hitters must be patient tonight because Gant is not shy about issuing walks. He has 27 of them in seven starts. (Brubaker has only nine and four of those came in his first start). The Cards are hitting just .210 the L7 games. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

8* Run Line Minnesota (7:40 ET): Well, the Twins got embarrassed here at home last night, losing to the White Sox 16-4. I was also embarrassed for taking the home team (did win my other two plays yesterday though). It was definitely the ugliest of the Twins’ four losses to the White Sox in 2021. But having yet to beat their AL Central rivals this season and coming off such an embarrassing loss, a sense of pride has to kick in. Just to be safe, I’ll grab the +1.5 and take Minnesota on the run line here.

As I’ve stated previously, I don’t think the Twins are as bad as their record, which right now is the worst in all of MLB. They’ve had terrible luck in extra innings (0-7!) and not much in the way of clutch hitting. They should have scored more last night given they had 11 hits, but they went just 2 for 9 with RISP (White Sox were 7 for 13). I like that Tuesday’s starter Michael Pineda has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts this season and he has a 0.918 WHIP at home. Giving up two home runs doomed him in last week’s start vs. the White Sox, but he only gave up four hits total. Pineda has a 3.38 ERA in 10 career games vs. Chicago. 

For the second straight time, Pineda will be opposed by Lance Lynn, who allowed just an unearned run and two hits (5 IP) in last week’s start. Admittedly, Lynn has been pretty good thus far, not giving up even one earned run in four of his six outings. But he’s only gone past the fifth inning twice. The White Sox won’t have reigning MVP Jose Abreu in the lineup for the remainder of this series. While his absence certainly didn’t affect last night’s game, eventually it will catch up. 8* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that I’m playing the run line in all three games in this report. The Orioles may seem like a strange candidate to back in this situation, given their problems winning at home and the fact TB is coming off a three-game sweep of the Mets. But the O’s did win themselves Sunday, beating the Yankees 10-6 thanks to a much needed offensive display. There’s a lot more volatility in these division matchups and I don’t see the home team doing any worse than a one run loss tonight. 

I will hand it to the Rays. Over their L10 games, they’ve allowed more than three runs just two times. But I don’t see them maintaining some of the recent offensive numbers, such as the 31 runs scored in the past four games. The team is still only batting .226 for the year and isn’t much higher than that in the L7 games. It doesn’t seem sustainable to continue averaging 5.3 rpg on the road while batting only .231. So Matt Harvey, tonight’s starter for Baltimore, should bounce back from a disastrous outing against the Mets last week. Before that disastrous start, Harvey had allowed 3 ER or less in five straight outings. 

The Rays have not offered up much offense in either of the two previous games started by Luis Patino. In fact, they’ve scored just one total run for him. Patino has pitched relatively well, though he’s more of an “opener” and thus has only gone 6 ⅔ innings combined in the two starts.The Tampa bullpen numbers go up on the road, which is another thing to consider here as is the fact the Rays have dropped five of the last seven series openers. They are 1-3 this season following an off-day. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

10* Chelsea (3:15 ET): After losing 1-0 to Leicester City in the FA Cup Final Saturday, Chelsea can get a measure of revenge here at Stamford Bridge AND increase its chances of finishing in the top four of the Premier League table. Just two points separate these sides currently with Leicester in third (66 points) and Chelsea (64) in fourth. So as it stands now, both would be headed for the Champions League next season. But with fifth place Liverpool (63 points) lurking not far behind, the three points on the line Wednesday will go a long way in cementing one of these clubs’ place in the top four. I like Chelsea. 

As I’ve previously discussed, Chelsea’s campaign took a dramatic turn (for the better) when Thomas Tuchel took over the reins in January. The Blues have won 17 of their last 27 across all competitions all while conceding only 13 goals in the process. Ironically, Tuchel took over not long after Chelsea lost the reverse fixture with Leicester City, 2-0. Since he took over, they have conceded more than one goal only one time in 28 matches! Tuchel has the Blues in this year’s Champions League Final, against fellow EPL side Manchester City. While that affords them a second opportunity at Champions League qualification (if they were to fail to make the EPL top four), I think the revenge factor is big here for Chelsea. 

That the Blues have dropped two straight - both by 1-0 scores - doesn’t concern me too much. In fact, they dominated the shot and possession count in both losses. Expected goals had them on top of Arsenal last Wednesday when they were in a clear look ahead to the FA Cup Final. One bad pass is what cost them. Chelsea has the 2nd most “expected” points in the league this year (only behind Man City) and 13 more than Leicester. It was the Foxes’ first ever FA Cup win Saturday at Wembley and I think there’s going to be a bit of a “letdown” factor for them here, despite what’s at stake. Chelsea moves into third place. 10* Chelsea

8* LA Angels (9:40 ET): In spite of Mike Trout’s best efforts, the Angels are off to a bad start this season and really their 17-22 record could probably be a lot worse when you consider they’ve been outscored by 47 runs. In all of baseball, only the Tigers have a worse run differential. So it may seem curious that I’m putting my dollars behind them on Monday. But I think this is a good spot to take the Halos as they open a three-game set with light-hitting Cleveland. They just snapped a four-game losing streak Sunday (beat Boston 6-5) while the Indians just dropped three in a row out in Seattle.

Over its last six games, Cleveland has not scored more than four runs. They’ve managed just 17 runs total in those six games and going back a bit further, they’ve been held to four or less in eight of the last nine games. So this sounds like a great spot for Patrick Sandoval to make his 2021 starting debut for the Angels. Sandoval has made three appearances out of the bullpen and has held opponents to a .214 average. Cleveland is 29th in MLB with a .209 team batting average. 

The Angels have much better hitting than the Indians as they are 5th in MLB with a .250 average. Shohei Ohtani hit the GW HR (in the top of the ninth) yesterday after Trout snapped a rare 0 for 18 slump at the plate (w/ a single). You have to figure Trout is going to start turning things around after being held hitless for five games. While Sam Hentges didn’t allow any runs his lone start thus far (last Weds vs. Cubs), he did put eight runners on base in 4 ⅔ IP. The Angels are a sharp play Monday. 8* LA Angels

10* Minnesota (7:40 ET): For the second straight series, revenge is on the mind of the Twins. Hopefully, this one goes better than the last where they dropped two of three here at home to Oakland. Previously, they’d been swept by the A’s. The same holds true here with the White Sox, who took all three games at Guaranteed Rate Field last week. While it has been a truly miserable start for Minnesota thus far and they have the worst record in all of baseball (13-25), I’m not ready to “punt” on them just yet as they’ve been more “unlucky” than “bad” in my estimation. Yesterday was their AL-leading 8th one-run loss. 

Chicago, on the other hand, is having a great start to 2021. I’ve got them #1 in the power rankings as they are 24-15 with a +61 run differential, both of which are MLB bests. But it was a tougher series than anticipated with KC over the weekend as the White Sox could only manage a split of the four games. They needed a two-run rally in the ninth to avoid a loss Sunday and over the L5 games, they’ve managed a grand total of just 14 runs. I just think that the revenge angle outweighs the respective starts to the season here. As you know, I’m a big believer in taking teams that have revenge for a prior sweep. 

Two lefties will toe the rubber in tonight’s series opener. Dallas Keuchel goes for the White Sox. He was VERY lucky to get the win when he faced Minnesota last week as he gave up six runs in what turned into a wild 13-8 final. J.A. Happ will again oppose Keuchel today. Happ was even worse than Keuchel last Wednesday as he allowed nine runs in 3 ⅓ IP. However, prior to that, he hadn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any start this year and his ERA/WHIP at home are 1.56/0.75. It’s all about revenge in this one and Happ has been the more consistent starter compared to Keuchel in 2021. 10* Minnesota

8* Chi Cubs (7:40 ET): The Cubs starter for Monday, Adbert Alzolay, is due a much better fate than his current 2-4 team start record. I say that based on his 0.875 WHIP in the six starts this season. Not only has he allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of those six starts, but Alzolay has also struck out six or more batters each of his last five times out. He’s been opposed by some good teams/pitchers so far and hasn’t always gotten the best run support. I feel that will change tonight against last place Washington. 

The Nationals did take two of three in Arizona over the weekend, but are still only 16-20 on the year. After they and the D’backs exchanged blowouts on Friday & Saturday, it was a 3-0 shutout Sunday. That was the Nats’ 4th shutout win of 2021, but now they face an opponent that is averaging 5.1 runs per game at home. The Cubs are a much better team at the Friendly Confines of Wrigley than they are on the road. They too are off a win Sunday as they took two of three from Detroit over the weekend. 

Opposing Alzolay in this series opener will be the Cubs’ old friend Jon Lester, who was part of the 2016 team that won the World Series. Lester’s season started late due to COVID-19 and while he hasn’t looked bad, he’s facing a team here that is 9-3 vs. left-handed starters. Washington hasn’t done much scoring when Lester is on the mound (just two runs in each start), which is why his TSR is 1-2. Alzolay has a 29.3% strikeout rate, which is very good and I view him as the superior starter in this matchup. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Charlotte (1:05 ET): Both of these teams will be in the Play-In Tournament, which begins Tuesday. It’s just a matter of which seed they end up with and who they’ll face. It could end up with them facing one another again. This game will go a long way in determining the East’s 8-10 seeds. Both Charlotte and Washington are 33-38 SU entering the final day of the regular season. So is Indiana, who plays Toronto Sunday. The winner of this game is guaranteed the 8-seed, which is huge as it means that the team would only need to beat Boston (easier said than done) to get into “the normal playoffs.” 

The loser of this game finishes either 9th or 10th in the East, depending on what happens in that Pacers-Raptors games. That means whoever loses here would not only have to beat the Pacers (possibly on the road), but then also the loser of the Celtics vs. #8 seed game, just to get into the playoffs. Got all that? The bottom line is that this is one of the more important games on Sunday’s slate. Charlotte is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Washington this season (both wins by double digits), but has been fading badly down the stretch. Yesterday’s overtime loss to the Knicks was the Hornets’ fourth straight. 

Meanwhile, the Wizards have been surging with a 14-5 SU record the L19 games including a 15-point victory over Cleveland on Friday. All five losses since April 12th have been by four points or less. But I think this team has been playing “over its head” and it’s difficult to look past the fact they allow the most PPG in the league. They may also not have leading scorer Bradley Beal today. Charlotte got back Miles Bridges yesterday and he scored 30 in his return from quarantine. I think this is too many points. 10* Charlotte

8* Toronto (1:07 ET): This rematch of the 1993 World Series has seen each team win a game. The Phillies struck first with a 5-1 triumph on Friday, but then the Blue Jays returned the favor with yesterday’s 4-0 shutout. While the teams both enter Sunday with 21 wins on the season (Toronto has two fewer losses), the respective run differentials would certainly seem to indicate the home team is a lot better here. The Jays are +34 in run differential this season while the Phils are actually -2. With a surge in price, I know who I’ll be taking in today’s rubber match. 

Today’s starting pitching matchup tells a similar story to what I was describing above. Both Chase Anderson (Philadelphia) and Robbie Ray (Toronto) have 3-0 team start records in their last three starts. However, Ray has simply been better. He has posted four consecutive quality starts (33-1 KW ratio!) with a 0.911 WHIP in the last three. Ray has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Home runs have been his lone issue so far, but the Phillies lineup he’ll be facing Sunday may be without Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto and Didi Gregorious. That’s a huge break for Ray and the Jays. 

Anderson, who posted a 7.22 ERA last season pitching for Toronto, has a 5.23 ERA for Philadelphia this season. That 2021 ERA is two full points higher than Ray’s. His WHIP is much higher the L3 starts compared to Ray and on the road Anderson has struggled with a 7.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He’s yet to go more than five innings in any start. The Phillies are 12-27 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 the L3 seasons and Toronto is 8-2 vs. the NL this season. 8* Toronto

7* Real Madrid (12:30 ET): I’ve “carried the flag” for Athletic Bilbao before, but the reality is that they’ve got nothing left to play for this season. Finishing in the top half of the table is a nice achievement as is being one of only eight La Liga sides with a positive YTD goal differential this campaign. They are likely to better LY’s 11th place finish, but aren’t likely to finish higher than their current spot of 9th. Having lost TWO Copa del Rey Finals in the last month (2020’s was rearranged), you’ve got to question their level of motivation heading into these final two fixtures. 

Meanwhile, Real Madrid has a TON left to play for. Entering Sunday, they are just two points back of table leaders Atletico Madrid. A win here and they keep their La Liga title hopes alive. There’s a chance, if Atletico loses or draws with Osasuna, that Real could go into the final week of the season on top by itself or tied for first. They are coming off a pretty dominant 4-1 win over Granada midweek, which extended their unbeaten run in the Spanish top flight to an unbelievable 16 straight. Los Blancos have been very strong on their travels this season. 

They also defeated Bilbao 3-1 in the reverse fixture back in December. They are unbeaten against them in La Liga action going all the way back to March 2015. While Bilbao had its own nine-match unbeaten run heading into Wednesday, a 1-0 loss to Huesca should certainly raise concerns over the aforementioned motivation level. Barcelona is way out ahead of the field on the score sheet this La Liga campaign, but Real Madrid is second with 64 goals scored and they’ve also conceded the second fewest at 27. 7* Real Madrid

8* Real Sociedad (12:30 ET): After being beaten 2-1 by table leaders Atletico Madrid midweek, Real Sociedad looks to preserve its top five status in La Liga with what looks like a very winnable match against bottom of the table Real Valladolid, who is looking to fight off relegation. These teams met in the very first fixture of the season and played to a 1-1 draw. But now we’re now looking at a sizable 25 point gap between the two with very different respective fates potentially awaiting them. Go with the favorite Sunday. 

It’s a steep drop in class for Sociedad compared to Wednesday’s opponent. You may recall that I faded Sociedad against Atletico, noting the latter’s sense of urgency to remain at the top of the table. While Valladolid desperately needs some sort of positive result here to increase their chances of safety, the fact is they are simply not a very good side. They were just beaten 2-0 on Thursday by a Villarreal side that’s quite comparable to Sociedad. In fact, both those clubs are currently battling it out for Europa League slots. 

All Sociedad has to do is finish in the top six and they automatically qualify for European football next season. They enter Sunday in fifth, but only one point ahead of both Real Betis and Villarreal. A win here is critical as it would keep them in control of their own destiny. Valladolid has the fewest number of wins (5) in all of La Liga this season, so them getting relegated would not be a surprise. Look for La Real to get all three points. 8* Real Sociedad

7* Sassuolo (12:00 ET): Already assured of a top half finish in the Serie A table, Sassuolo still has an outside chance of Europa League qualifying for next season. They have to finish in the top seven though and yesterday’s result between Lazio and Roma, a 2-0 win by the latter, did the Neroverdi no favors. They are now five point back of Roma for 7th, but shortening that gap should not be a problem on Sunday when they face last place Parma, a side that has only three wins all season and has lost seven in a row. 

It sure looked as if Parma was going to end its losing streak on Wednesday as they were locked into a goalless game with Lazio entering stoppage time. But five minutes into stoppage time, they conceded the game-winner. That crushing defeat, coupled with Crotone’s surprise 2-1 over Hellas Verona on Thursday, has landed Parma in last place for the first time since X-Mas. Their relegation fate has already been sealed as they know they’ll be playing down in Serie B next season.

Having come so close to a positive result, only to lose again, will be crushing for the spirit of Parma and I think they’re primed to be run off the pitch Sunday. During the seven-match losing streak, they’ve conceded three or more goals five different times. They are also tied with Benevento for the fewest number of goals scored (38) in all of Serie A. Sassuolo, who I felt outplayed Juventus in a 3-1 loss Wednesday, will be eager to bounce back from that defeat. Before that, they’d been unbeaten in six straight. Should be an easy three points here after only taking one from the reverse fixture back in January. 7* Sassuolo

6* Benevento (9:00 AM ET): We’ve got two, bottom of the table Serie A sides here, but only one (Benevento) has a shot of escaping relegation. Crotone has been at or near the bottom all campaign and their 27 losses are easily a league-high. But what I like about this one is not only that Benevento is basically in a “must-win” situation, but also that Crotone is off a VERY rare win. At no point this season have they produced B2B wins. In fact, there’s been only one time (back in December) that they’ve gone two straight w/o suffering a loss! 

Crotone’s surprise 2-1 win over Hellas Verona came Thursday, meaning they’ve had a shorter turnaround time compared to their opponents for Sunday. Getting two goals against Verona seemed fortunate and the one they conceded tied a rather dubious mark as they’ve now given up 91 goals this season. One more and that’s a new Serie A record. I think they’ll likely concede multiple times here. The win on Thursday allowed Crotone to escape the league basement for the first time since X-Mas, but be aware they have picked up just five points (just one win) away from home all season. 

Benevento, like Crotone, was a newly promoted side for 2020/21. Unlike this week’s opponent, they have a chance to remain in the Italian top flight next season. Admittedly, their recent form has been poor with only one victory in the last 20 matches. Them dropping from 10th to 18th in the table is not all that surprising when you looked at their goal differential, however they haven’t had this golden an opportunity for a win in a LONG time. A win here would pull Benevento within one point of Torino and within two of Cagliari heading into the final week of the campaign. They obviously need this one badly. 6* Benevento

10* Napoli (6:30 AM ET): Napoli has seen a huge surge in price for this fixture and for good reason. A win here would not only move them into Champions League qualification, but back into second place in the Serie A table. We know that Inter has already bagged the Scudetto and will finish first. After that, it’s a four team fight for the three remaining UCL spots between Napoli, Atalanta, Juventus and AC Milan. Based on both goal differential and expected points, Napoli is a top four side in the Italian top flight. I expect them to get the full three points early Sunday against a side that has little to play for at this juncture. 

A dominant 5-1 win midweek over Udinese temporarily moved Napoli into second in Serie A, but the Partenopei are now back in fifth following the results of Wednesday and Saturday. But considering this side is unbeaten in its last seven, I have every reason to believe they should continue to roll Sunday. They’ve outscored their last two opponents 9-2 and are averaging the second most goals per match in the league this season. Only Inter and Atalanta have outscored their opponents by a wider margin.

Fiorentina, like Napoli, has been on a bit of a roll of late. They come in unbeaten in their last five fixtures. But they haven’t been nearly as dominant with only two of those being wins. It was a goalless draw with lowly Cagliari on Wednesday, which leaves Fiorentina 13th in the table heading into the final two matches. The reverse fixture did not go well - at all - as Napoli drubbed them 6-0 at Stadio Maradona back in January. This one won’t be THAT lopsided, but Napoli is clearly better and has much more at stake. 10* Napoli

8* Under Chander/Oliveira (11:59 ET): This is the main event of UFC 262 and it is for the vacant Lightweight Title (155lbs). The fight is scheduled for five rounds between Michael Chandler, who is 22-5 overall and 1-0 in the UFC, and Charles Oliveira, who is 30-8 overall and 18-8 in the UFC. It’s a fight that I don’t expect to go relatively long as I’m taking the Under 2.5 rounds. Chandler and Oliveira have a combined 52 wins in their respective careers. Only eight of those have been by decision. These are two finishers and I don’t expect this one to make it past the halfway point of round three. 

Oliveira actually owns the UFC record for most wins via submission. He comes into Saturday’s title fight having won his last eight bouts, seven of those being finishes. The exception was his last time out, a unanimous decision victory over Tony Ferguson in December where he completely dominated from start to finish. That was the first Oliveira fight to go three full rounds since 2014. There were 14 fights in between that didn’t go a full three and the vast majority of them (11) ended within the first two rounds, usually by submission. 

Chandler, the long-time Bellator Lightweight Champion, made a successful UFC debut in January when he TKO’d Dan Hooker in the first round. That was the fourth consecutive Chandler fight to end in Round 1. Six of his last eight and 7 of 10 have ended in the first five minutes. Only seven of his 27 career fights have gone to the scorecards and only one of those seven have come since 2016. The ratio for Oliviera is even more extreme with only four of 38 fights going to the cards. 8* Under Chandler/Oliviera

10* Beneil Dariush (11:25 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s lightweight division (155lbs). It pits Beneil Dariush (20-4-1 overall, 14-4-1 in UFC) against Tony Ferguson (25-5, 15-3). While these are two of the higher ranked LW’s in the UFC, and Ferguson is actually the higher ranked of the two, I believe that it will be Dariush continuing his winning ways with a convincing victory Saturday night. Dariush is someone I’ve won previously with (Fight Night 174) and I consider him to be a future title challenger.

Going back to the end of 2018, Dariush finds himself on a six-fight win streak. Along the way, he seems to have developed into a bit of a “knockout artist,” stopping both Drakkar Klose and Scott Holtzman in short order last year. The Holtzman fight, which was back in August, is when I took him. It took less than a round for Dariush to finish things via spinning backfist. Things were much closer his last time out as it was a split decision victory over Diego Ferreira in February. But the good news is he seemed willing to combine his new hard-hitting ability with some wrestling, which has long been his hallmark. 

Ferguson seems to be trending in a much different direction than Dariush as he comes in off B2B losses to Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje. Prior to that it was a 12-fight win streak, but Ferguson’s UFC run will always be remembered for never getting matched up with Khabib Nurmagomedov. There were five different attempts to make that fight and none ever actually ended up happening. Ferguson is now 37 and looked a step slow in the B2B losses. 10* Beneil Dariush

10* Under Heat/Bucks (8:05 ET): When Miami beat Philadelphia 104-96 Thursday night, it snapped a 10-game Over streak. Considering that the Heat are only 25th in the league in scoring, it sure was strange to see them go on such a run of Overs. But of course the totals for the vast majority of those games were fairly low. Facing Milwaukee Saturday night, the Heat will see their highest O/U line in well over three months. With the exception of two games vs. Brooklyn in January, this will likely close as the highest O/U for any Miami game all season. 

Now a high total here shouldn’t be that surprising as Milwaukee is the league’s highest scoring team. But even for them, the amount of scoring in recent games has gotten a bit “out of hand.” The Bucks’ last five contests have averaged more than 260 PPG! There’s a bit of a “course correction” that’s due to take place here and with Giannis Antetokounmpo likely to see reduced minutes Saturday (he played only 35 minutes Thursday), this seems like the “right time” for it. The Bucks shot 57.4% against the defensively challenged Pacers in the last game. That won’t be repeated tonight against a Heat team that just held the #1 team in the East below triple digits. 

Even with the game vs. the Sixers on Thursday staying well Under the total, Miami’s last five contests have averaged WAY more points than is per usual for them. They’ve shot nearly 53% from the floor the L5 games, so they are also bound to “cool off” at the offensive end. These are two of the top 10 teams in the league in defensive efficiency and the Heat play at a bottom five tempo. 10* Under Heat/Bucks

10* Minnesota (4:05 ET): Well, it was a “swing and a miss” on the Twins yesterday as they fell to 0-4 this season against the A’s. The series opener wasn’t close as Oakland homered four times en route to an easy 6-1 win. But that result and the entire season series aside, I still feel both of these teams’ records are misleading. I’ll be rehashing much of yday’s analysis here and Friday’s game actually only strengthens my belief that Minnesota is going to (finally) get its revenge today. Having a better starter on the mound today (compared to yday) is definitely a bonus. 

The Twins went just 1 for 6 with RISP yesterday and left seven men on base. Lack of clutch hitting has really hurt them this season and so has an extremely unfortunate 0-7 record in extra inning games. The result is MLB’s worst record at 12-24. But, as I said in yday’s analysis, I don’t think for a second that this club is as bad as its record. Coming into this series, their YTD run differential wasn’t that far off from the A’s, who continue to lead the AL West thanks to a 13-game win streak last month (that included a sweep of the Twins). 

But two of the three wins in that previous series with Minnesota were by just one run. Jose Berrios started one of those one-run losses for the Twins and he held the A’s to one run in five innings. He’s now coming off B2B 6-inning outings. Berrios has never allowed more than 4 ER this season and five of his seven starts have seen him give up 2 ER or less. Cole Irvin starts today for the A’s and while he’s been better over his L5 starts, he did allow a pair of home runs his last time out. It speaks volumes that the oddsmakers have a last place team favored on the money line against a first place team. 10* Minnesota

10* Borussia Monchengladbach (9:30 AM ET): With a win here, Gladbach can clinch a top seven finish in the Bundesliga and thus have an opportunity to qualify for next season’s Europa League. After taking it on the chin last week (lost 6-0 to Bayern Munich), you’ve got to think we’re getting an inspired effort from the hosts on Saturday, given what’s at stake. Losing to the Bundesliga champs is no big deal, even if it was by a sizable margin. Recently Die Fohlen had dished out a couple of its own blowout victories - 5-0 over Arminia Bielefeld and 4-0 over Eintracht Frankfurt. So I look for the bounce back to take place. 

Stuttgart is probably looking at a top 10 finish, which is impressive when you consider they were a newly promoted side for this season. But before downing Augsburg 2-1 last week, Stuttgart had suffered four straight losses where they conceded multiple goals every occasion. Snapping the long losing streak was a little fortunate when you consider Stuttgart had fewer shots on goal and actually lost the expected goal battle, 2-1. Winning with a stand-in goaltender is also a bit fortunate and the backup is expected to be called into duty again Saturday. Midfielder Naouirou Ahamada is out w/ a red card and two other attackers are injured for Stuttgart. It’s going to be a patchwork starting XI this week.

Meanwhile, for Gladbach, things weren’t really as bad as the final score made it out to be last week. They just got caught in the wrong place at the wrong time against the wrong opponent. I again point to the fact that it wasn’t that long ago Gladbach smashed top five Eintracht Frankfurt by a four goal margin. With 8th place Union Berlin level on points with them, but facing Leverkusen this week and Leipzig next, this is a golden opportunity for Gladbach to secure its place in European football next season. 10* Borussia Monchengladbach

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Cardinals are coming off a very hard-fought series with the Brewers where they were able to take two of three, despite not scoring many runs. They won 2-0 Thursday and that was after just nine hits in the first two games, one of which was a highly misleading 6-1 final (they scored five runs in the top of the 11th in that one). While currently tied for the most wins in MLB (23), I don’t think they can continue to succeed this way and it's a tough matchup on Friday in San Diego as they must deal with Joe Musgrove in the series opener. 

Back on April 9th in Texas, Musgrove tossed the first no-hitter in Padres’ history. At the time, it was a 28-inning scoreless streak for him dating back to the end of last season. Things have seemingly “leveled off” considerably for Musgrove since the no-no, but he definitely deserves better than a 3-4 team start record on the year when you consider his ERA (3.23) and WHIP (0.846). All of Musgrove’s last three starts have come against either the Giants or the Dodgers, perhaps the two best teams in the National League. Tonight, at home, should be a more favorable matchup. 

San Diego came into the 2021 season with very lofty expectations. Their 21-17 record could be better, but they have outscored opponents by 27 runs. Thursday being an off-day gives them an edge here and I see the lineup “getting to” Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo, who has allowed three homers in his two previous outings. No team is giving up fewer runs per game than the Padres (just 3.3) and their record at home (shockingly sub-.500) is due to improve. 8* San Diego

9* Run Line Minnesota (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I’m backing the Twins +1.5. If the line were to shift and the +1.5 is no longer an option, still take the Twins on the money line here. This is a big-time revenge spot for them, having been swept by the A’s last month in Oakland. Two of the three losses were by one run (1-0 and 13-12) and in the one, they had the A’s “on the ropes” before making two costly errors in the 10th inning. At the time, the A’s were in the midst of their 13-game win streak. But that’s over now and the team is just 10-16 this season outside of that win streak.

There’s a lot of head-scratching right now as to why Minnesota has the worst win percentage in all of MLB (.343). Basically, it boils down lack of clutch hitting, poor bullpen performance and a very unlucky 0-7 record in extra inning games. They were just swept by the first place White Sox (maybe the best team in MLB?) and have dropped seven of eight overall. I do not think for a second the Twins are as bad as their record and certainly they’ll be moving past both the Tigers & Royals in the AL Central sometime soon. The Twins’ YTD run differential (-15) isn’t all that different from the A’s (-13), who actually LEAD the AL West. 

Therefore, Oakland’s record is just as misleading as Minnesota’s is and this is a great time to call for “course correction” in both instances. I went against the A’s Thursday as they were soundly beaten (8-1) in the series finale at Fenway Park. Key to Oakland’s success thus far has been an extremely fortunate nine one-run victories (most in MLB). Frankie Montas, who starts for them today, has a 5-2 TSR even though his ERA is 5.50. The A’s offense has produced four runs or fewer in eight of the last nine games. So look for Twins’ starter Matt Shoemaker to build off the five shutout innings he threw last Friday. The Twins are hitting much better than the A’s over the L7 days despite the inferior record. 9* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

10* Under Magic/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta is now guaranteed a top six finish in the East after outlasting Washington in each of the last two games. A top six finish is nice as it allows the Hawks to avoid the play-in tournament. But they want to be 4th and have home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. While this has been an interesting season (to say the least), Atlanta is 23-11 SU on its home floor where it’s won nine in a row. So getting the home court advantage would be a big deal to them. The final two games (both at home) vs. Orlando and then Houston look to be pretty easy. 

Orlando is absolutely NOT going to the playoffs as they’ve been near the bottom of the Eastern Conference most of the season. They actually own the worst point differential in the East as they are getting outscored by 8.8 points per game this year. Coming into tonight, they’ve lost four in a row - all by double digits - and are now 21-48 SU this season. The Magic’s big problem is they just can’t score. They average only 104.1 PPG, second fewest in the league, and in those four straight DD losses they’ve never shot better than 41.8% from the field. Three of the four games have seen them score 102 pts or less. 

After coming back from a 13-point 4Q deficit last night, Atlanta may be a bit drained on the offensive end. The L5 games have seen them average 125.8 PPG, which is well above their season average. Keep in mind they just got done facing the league’s worst scoring defense (Wizards) B2B times. The Under is 8-3 in division games for Atlanta as they give up only 105.1 PPG and score only 109.4. It was 112-96 the last time these teams played and the total was much lower. 10* Under Magic/Hawks

8* San Antonio (7:35 ET): Last night, the Spurs failed to clinch the final spot in the Western Conference’s “play-in tournament” as they lost 128-116 at Brooklyn. It was a game they never led and trailed by double digits most of the way. With their two final regular season games both coming against high-flying Phoenix, San Antonio could badly use a win here so that they don’t have to worry about beating the Suns. I know that it’s the second game of a back to back, but their opponents are returning home after a long West Coast swing, so there’s no situational advantage in terms of scheduling. Take the points. 

The Knicks are the league’s biggest surprise this season as they have clinched a top six spot in the East and could finish as high as fourth. To the point they’ve been surprising, no team in the league has a better ATS record than New York’s 44-23-2. They are covering games at a near historic pace, but I think the oddsmakers are eventually going to “catch up with them.” This is a team that has been an underdog in two-thirds of its games including each of the last five. After a series of high-profile non-conference clashes vs. the likes of the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets and Suns, this could be letdown territory for the favorite. 

The Knicks-Lakers game on Monday saw 22 lead changes and went to OT. The Knicks lost 101-99 as they shot below 40% overall. Over the L4 games, the Knicks have not broken 106 points. San Antonio is just two games removed from a shocking 146-125 win over Milwaukee and while they lost at Brooklyn last night, the Spurs are a better team on the road with a 19-16 SU record. The Knicks could be playing short-handed tonight as four players are listed as questionable on the injury report. 8* San Antonio

10* Boston (7:10 ET): Two first place teams wrap up a three-game series at Fenway on Thursday. While Oakland has taken the first two games, it is them that I’m more skeptical of at this point of the season. Nobody saw Boston leading the AL East, but the A’s have a -6 run differential this season and somehow lead the West. Compare that to second place Houston (+44) or even the Red Sox (+29). Thus, I see the A’s “falling off” a bit in the coming weeks. The reason they have the most wins in all of MLB (23) right now is because they won 13 in a row last month. Outside that win streak, their record is 10-15. 

This is just the second three-game losing streak for Boston in 2021. The first is when they began 0-3. They proceeded to win 22 of their next 35 games after that. Puzzling is that the Red Sox are just 10-11 at home. They average 5.2 rpg here and have outscored the opposition. Last night was a frustrating one at the plate as they were 1 for 11 w/ RISP and the top two hitters (Xavier Bogaerts and Rafael Devers) each left five men on base. After scoring only three runs in the first two games of this series, I look for MLB’s highest scoring offense to “break out” Thursday night and end Sean Manaea’s six start unbeaten streak.

Manaea almost threw a no-hitter his last time out as the A’s righty gave up only one run on two hits in 7 ⅔ IP. He finished with 11 strikeouts and it was the sixth straight time the team won with him on the mound. But Manaea has a 6.84 ERA in five previous starts vs. Boston. The Red Sox counter with Garrett Richards, who has looked A LOT sharper his L3 outings after a rough start to the year. In those L3 starts, Richards is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA. 10* Boston

8* Atlanta (12:20 ET): The Braves can’t seem to solve the Blue Jays as they are now 0-5 head to head this season after a 4-1 loss on Wednesday. I had the Braves last night and for the second time in a row, they jumped out to an early lead. But once again the late innings proved problematic as Teoscar Hernandez homered twice for Toronto. At least I still cashed the Under in the game. Today, I believe the Braves do get their revenge as they face the Jays for the final time in 2021.

Atlanta has struggled in day games this season (5-8), but they are 45-29 in them the L3 seasons. This early start time sees Charlie Morton getting the nod as he looks to bounce back from an awful outing that was rather atypical. A passed ball (not Morton’s fault, obviously) opened the door for him to six unearned runs in the first innings vs. Philadelphia last Friday. The start before that saw Morton receive a no-decision in Toronto after allowing four runs in 5 ⅓. Remember this time, it’s played under NL rules, so he’ll be facing a weaker Blue Jays lineup, one that is only 4-13 when scoring four runs or less. 

Also off a poor start is Toronto’s Ross Stripling. He is winless in four starts this year with a 6.61 ERA and 1.898 WHIP. Stripling has yet to go longer than five innings. His last time out saw him charged with three runs in 3 ⅔ IP and take a 10-2 loss against Houston. The team (obviously) won when Stripling started against the Braves on 5/2, but that was at home. It’s revenge time for the Braves on Thursday. 8* Atlanta

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Yesterday, I went 3 for 3 with MLB sides - all of the teams I took had revenge (for a previous series sweep) against their respective opponents. That is still the case here for Atlanta. The Braves got swept in Toronto two weeks ago, then also lost to them yesterday by a score of 5-3. While the revenge angle did not play out Tuesday night, it probably should have as the Braves led 3-2 going into the eighth inning. But a costly mistake in the field opened the door for the Blue Jays to score three times in the eighth. I don’t see the home team losing again though, and will back them in this spot. 

Atlanta leads all of MLB with 32 runs scored in the first inning this season. So they are getting out to good starts. Today they face Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has given up four runs in two of his last three starts. None of the last three starts have gone longer than five innings either. This will be a battle of southpaws as the Braves send out their own lefty, Max Fried, to the bump Wednesday. After spending some time on the DL, Fried looked a lot better his last time out, giving up only one run in five innings as the Braves beat the Nationals 5-3.

It really doesn’t make much sense to see Atlanta struggling so much against Toronto. It’s not as if the Blue Jays are a significantly better ballclub. Typically, the Braves are pretty strong at home (81-53 since 2019). This will be Toronto’s ninth straight road game. The key here is holding the Blue Jays under five runs as they are only 3-13 when scoring four or less. I think Fried will do that and additionally the Braves are 62-29 their L91 as a home favorite. 10* Atlanta

8* Under Blue Jays/Braves (7:20 ET): Toronto has not been a fun opponent for Atlanta as the Jays are now 4-0 in the season series. Yesterday saw them come from behind to win 5-3. That’s a game the Braves probably feel they “should have” won considering they held a 3-2 lead going into the eighth, but a miscue in the field opened the door for the Toronto rally. Look for tonight’s game to feature fewer runs scored than last night as we’ve got a battle of southpaws on the mound: Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Max Fried. 

Atlanta does not hit left-handed pitching particularly well. In games where they face a LH starter, they are hitting just .219 with 4.1 runs per game scored. Ryu is considered to be Toronto’s ace, though he hasn’t been all that great of late. He got plenty of run support his last time out in a 10-4 win over Baltimore. But in four of Ryu’s first five starts this season, the Blue Jays scored three or fewer runs. This is a NL park, so that means the pitcher has to come up to bat. Thus, it’s an easier lineup that Ryu will be facing than when he faces a typical American League lineup with the DH. 

Though they did win Tuesday, playing without the DH ended a 5-0 Over run for Toronto. They did all of their scoring in two innings, getting two in the sixth, then three in the eighth. Max Fried gets the start today for Atlanta. Like Ryu, Fried had a successful return from the DL his last time out as he allowed just one run in five innings. As I said when I (successfully) played the Under in Atlanta’s game Sunday, the amount of overall scoring at Truist Park is due to go down. 8* Under Blue Jays/Braves

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): Here’s a stat for you: five of Washington’s last six games have been decided by two points or less! Four of them have been decided by one point! They are 2-2 SU in the four one-point games, including a 125-124 loss here in Atlanta on Monday. I thought the Wizards were a bit lucky to make a game of it, though I may be biased considering I laid the points with the Hawks, who had a 17-point lead going into the fourth quarter. The Wiz didn’t have Bradley Beal in the lineup Monday and he’s out again tonight. Missing the NBA’s second leading scorer is significant and I don’t see the road team being so “lucky” this time. 

By going 15-5 SU in its last 20 games, Washington is likely going to make the playoffs. But only three teams in the entire Eastern Conference have a worse YTD point differential and those are Detroit, Cleveland and Orlando. Defensively, the Wizards are very bad as they are giving up an average of 132.4 points the last five games. Granted, two of the games went to OT, but there’s been just one time in the L6 games that they did NOT give up at least 124 in regulation. They are dead last in the entire NBA in points allowed per game. 

I can’t see Washington shooting better than 50% overall - and from three-point range - again like they did Monday. Not with Beal out of the lineup. This opens the door for the Hawks to win their ninth in a row at home. Before beating Washington Monday, the previous six home wins had all been by at least seven points. The Hawks fell victim to a 45-point 4Q on Monday, something I certainly don’t see repeating itself here. Look for the home team to win big. 10* Atlanta 

9* Atletico Madrid (4:00 ET): By the time this fixture takes place, Atletico Madrid could find itself out of first place in the La Liga table. That’s dependent on Barcelona’s result Tuesday vs. Levante. Given that Barca is such an overwhelming favorite (almost 5/1!), you’d expect them to gain the full three points. If so, they’d move one ahead of Atletico, who still has three left to play. Having been at the top of the table most of this season, anything short of finishing first will be viewed as a massive disappointment for Atletico. That makes Wednesday’s clash with top five hopeful Real Sociedad that much more important.

It was a 0-0 draw Saturday between Atletico and Barca, thus preserving the former’s two point edge in the standings. Note Real Madrid is also just two points back entering the week. It has been some shaky play down the stretch from Atletico as they’ve picked up just 15 points from the L9 league fixtures. But they’ve still got the most wins in all of La Liga (23) while conceding - by far - the fewest number of goals (22). Saturday’s was the club’s 18th clean sheet as they go for their 1st La Liga trophy since 2014.

The top four is out of reach for Real Sociedad, but as I mentioned Friday, they can still gain a spot in next year’s Europa League by finishing in the top six. Fifth is where they are currently at following an easy 2-0 win over Elche, a spot where I backed them. But there’s a big difference in facing the side I consider to be the worst in all of La Liga (Elche) and the one that’s led most of the season. Sociedad was actually tied 0-0 (despite Elche playing with only 10 men) until breaking through in the 72nd minute and then added another in stoppage time. Atletico won the reverse fixture (2-0) back in December and I see them making it a league double on Wednesday. 9* Atletico Madrid

10* Under Mariners/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Though Seattle saw every game in its previous series (at Texas) go Over the total and the Dodgers are 7-1 Over their last eight, look for this Interleague matchup to be low-scoring and stay Under the total. I say that based on the logistics of the matchup. Seattle, an American League team, is only hitting .205 its L7 games and now they lose the DH because the game is at Dodgers Stadium (NL rules here). The Dodgers’ previous two series were at Wrigley and Angels Stadium (where they got the benefit of the DH). 

Walker Buehler had an 11-2 team start record for the Dodgers last season. This year, his TSR is only 3-3 but he’s still pitched quite well. In fact, he’s got a lower WHIP (0.938) compared to 2020 and his ERA (3.13) isn’t all that bad either. Only one time in his six starts this season has Buehler allowed more than two runs. That was against the Reds, who are among the highest scoring teams in baseball. Seattle was no-hit recently and has been held to three runs or less in half of the L10 games. 

Yusei Kikuchi goes for the Mariners on Tuesday. Facing the Dodgers isn’t easy, but LA did score just one run on Sunday, a game they finished with just four hits. The Dodgers have scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games. Kikuchi has gone seven innings each of his last two starts and allowed just three runs (all in the last one) on six hits. While I am expecting a third straight quality start here from Kikuchi, the likelihood of the Dodgers winning this game is very strong (look at the money line) and that means we probably avoid playing the bottom of the ninth, a bonus when you’ve got the Under. 10* Under Mariners/Dodgers

10* Over Nets/Bulls (8:05 ET): Last time out, the Nets snapped a season-worst four game losing streak with a come from behind effort in Denver. They won 125-119 as 3.5-point chalk and were my 10* Game of the Week. In the analysis for that pick, I talked about how strange it was to see Brooklyn not only on a four-game SU losing streak, but also a 4-game Under run. Well, both of those streaks are over now as they look to solidify their status as a top two team in the East and possibly catch Philadelphia for home court advantage. 

Chicago’s last seven games have been a bit strange in that the losing team has been held below 100 points in every game. The Bulls were the losers in the first four of those seven games, but have since turned it around with a three-game win streak as they hope to keep their fleeting playoff hopes alive. They trail 10th place Washington by 2.5 games for the last spot in the “play-in” tournament with four games to go. The problem is the Bulls have yet to win more than three in a row this season. They are 0-3 SU/ATS when off three consecutive wins in 2020-21. 

I like this to turn into a really high-scoring game. Even without James Harden, we know what the Nets can do offensively. They are second in the league at 118.6 PPG. They shot a blistering 62.1% against Denver Saturday night. Chicago now has both leading scorer Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup and as a result the team scored 120+ in recent wins over Charlotte and Boston. They also shot 51.2% against Detroit Sunday. The Bulls are 7-0 Under the L7 games, but the opponent they are facing tonight is likely to end that streak. 10* Over Nets/Bulls

8* Under Heat/Celtics (7:35 ET): These teams just met Sunday here in Boston with the Heat emerging victorious in a wild 130-124 game. Miami jumped out to a huge 79-53 lead as they were shooting better than 65% from the field at that point. However, with a 40-point fourth quarter, the Celtics almost pulled off what would have been a second improbable comeback in the L10 days. (Remember they came back from 32 down to beat the Spurs 143-140 on April 30th. I don’t think this immediate rematch will turn out nearly as high scoring and thus Under is the call Tuesday night on TNT. 

The game Sunday saw great shooting from both sides. Miami finished the game at 57.3% overall, including 16 of 35 from behind the three-point line. Boston was at 54.2%. The teams also combined to go 40 of 47 from the FT line as the game went Over by more than 30 points. The Heat are now 9-0 Over their L9 games while the Celtics are 7-1 Over their last eight. But can this continue? The last five games have seen Miami score 121.8 PPG, which is well above their season average of 107.6. Same thing for Boston, who is averaging 123.4 PPG their last five contests as opposed to 112.9 for the year.

These teams faced off in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals and almost every game went Over. So I am definitely bucking not only recent history, but head to head history as well. However, this is likely to close as the highest O/U line for any Miami game in the last two months. It’s also much higher than any of the O/U lines from LY’s ECF. Boston doesn’t have Jaylen Brown anymore and Evan Fournier isn’t likely to continue his recent hot shooting. Sunday was the Heat’s second highest scoring game of the season. 8* Under Heat/Celtics

8* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Tigers +1.5. Detroit is obviously not a good team, but they are off a win (7-3 over Minnesota on Saturday) and facing a Royals team that’s lost eight in a row in spectacularly bad fashion (-37 run differential). The Tigers have revenge here for a four-game sweep at the hands of the Royals that took place here at Comerica Park a couple weeks ago. Kansas City has won just two games since that sweep and won’t prevail here by more than a run. 

The revenge angle is just one reason I’m taking the Tigers tonight. Another is they are starting Matthew Boyd, arguably their best pitcher. As you’d expect, Boyd hasn’t had much good luck this season as his team start record is 2-4 despite a 2.27 ERA and 0.925 WHIP. Each of his first five starts saw him go at least 5 ⅔ innings while giving up 3 ER or less. He hasn’t started a game since 4/29 when he left due to left knee tendinitis after facing just seven batters. His last turn in the rotation was skipped. I expect Boyd to come out and pitch well here.

The last time Boyd faced the Royals was 4/24 and he allowed just two runs (one unearned) and three hits in 8 IP. The Tigers lost that game 2-1, so you can see the benefit of playing the RL right there. Once again starting opposite Boyd will be Brady Singer. He went seven innings and allowed just the one run in that 4/24 matchup. His YTD numbers are close to Boyd’s, but slightly worse. There’s also no sugarcoating how bad KC has been lately with just four total runs scored in their L4 games. Two of the four wins in the previous series were by one run. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

9* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Another revenge play here to complete the trifecta as the Yankees were swept at home by the Rays last month. But things have turned around since then for the team wearing pinstripes. They’ve gone 13-6 their L19 games including a pair of dramatic wins over the Nationals this past weekend. Personally, I never believed there was any reason to “panic” in the Bronx as the preseason favorites to win the AL East are among the league leaders in the fewest number of runs per game allowed. 

As was the case for the Yankees, Monday was an off-day for Tampa Bay. They needed it considering they’d just played 17 consecutive days (went 9-8). Though they really seem to have the Yankees number (18-5 L23 meetings), I still have the Rays ranked fourth in the division. They haven’t been hitting much recently with three of the last five games seeing them record four or fewer hits. At home, they are averaging just 3.1 runs per game with a team batting average of only .210. That won’t cut it.

Jordan Montgomery goes here for the Yanks, hoping for better results than the last time he faced TB. He gave up four runs in a 6-3 loss in that previous series. But, the only time the Yankees beat the Rays this season, Montgomery was the starter (back on 4/11). He’s allowed just eight runs in his L3 starts. Luis Patino will start this game for the Rays, likely serving as more of a “opener” as he went just 2 ⅔ in his only previous “official” start. I look for the Yankees to start turning the tide in this AL East rivalry. 9* NY Yankees

9* Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): The Pirates are 0-4 against the Reds so far this season and were dealt a humiliating 14-1 defeat in yesterday’s series opener. The Bucs have actually been outscored 44-9 in the four losses to the Reds and have lost eight straight times to them going back to 2020. But you’ll notice they are favored tonight, something that hasn’t been the case in any of the previous matchups. They seem to have a decided edge in the starting pitching matchup and I’ll call for them to gain some revenge. 

JT Brubaker gets the baseball for Pittsburgh in hopes of snapping this miserable run against the Reds. Though his team start record is 1-3, Brubaker has a 27-3 KW ratio his L4 starts. All three walks came his last time out when he and the Pirates were big underdogs against San Diego. All six starts this season have seen Brubaker allowed 3 ER or less and he’s got a 1.93 ERA in two previous starts vs. Cincy. The last one was on April 5th and he allowed just one run on three hits. I expect Brubaker to pitch well in this spot. 

Cincinnati’s Jeff Hoffman does NOT have particularly inspiring numbers coming into tonight’s start, especially on the road. Last time out he was charged with four runs in 2 ⅓ IP as the Reds lost 9-0 at home to the White Sox. Only one time has he lasted longer than five innings. Hoffman has started against the Pirates two times previous to this, both when he was with the Rockies, and his ERA is 10.13. He has a 1.801 WHIP in his two road starts this year and the Reds are hitting only .216 away from home. 9* Pittsburgh

8* Portland (10:10 ET): It’s a lot of points to lay with Portland tonight, but they are taking on a very bad team that will be playing its third difficult road game in four nights. Houston is last in the NBA with a 16-52 SU record and has lost five in a row, Their last two losses came Friday in Milwaukee and Saturday in Utah. They actually covered both spreads, but with nothing left to play for - and the season winding down - you’ve got to wonder what (if anything) they’ve got left in the tank. Plus, Portland has played REALLY well of late, winning seven of eight. Six of those seven wins have been by double digits. 

These teams have met twice before this season and both games were close, decided by three points or less. Houston won one of them, but that was at home. It’s also important to note that both prior meetings occurred before “the bottom dropped out” in Houston after the James Harden trade. They were 8-9 after beating Portland on January 28th. They’ve only won eight of 51 games since. Bottom line though, the Blazers are going to take this one seriously. Especially since they are trying to clinch a top six spot in the Western Conference to avoid the “play-in” tournament. 

The Blazers are currently one game ahead of the Lakers for sixth. They have the tiebreaker over LA by virtue of winning the season series. Their last game was a 22-point win over San Antonio and they are now 8-2 ATS L10 games vs. losing teams. The Rockets have had only eight players available each of their L2 games, so it’s a minor miracle they were even able to cover. They could have 10 players available tonight, but the returnees would be Christian Wood and Kelly Olynyk, neither of whom are exactly “All-Stars.” Lay the points here. 8* Portland

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Washington seems to have played itself into the Eastern Conference’s play-in tournament, which will determine the final two seeds in the playoffs proper. Since April 7th, the Wizards are 15-4 with three of those losses coming by a total of five points. Two were by one point and the three-point loss came in OT. But it’s just as important to note the Wiz are still four games under .500, have been outscored on the season and on a per possession basis. Perhaps most important of all is that they won’t have the NBA’s 2nd leading scorer, Bradley Beal, in the lineup tonight vs. Atlanta. 

The Hawks are trying to chase down the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference, which would mean home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Right now, they trail the Knicks by one game in the race for that spot. Losing at Indiana on Thursday did not help, but the Hawks have had three days to recover from a game where they allowed the opponent to shoot 62.1 percent from the floor and score 133 points. The positive from that is Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season following a game where they surrendered 130+ points. The rest is also huge, especially facing a team that’s playing it’s fourth road game in six nights. 

While the Wizards’ last three losses have all been very close, what I failed to mention is that they are coming off B2B OT wins as well. Beal scored 50 in a 133-132 win against Indiana on Saturday. He will be sorely missed tonight. For Atlanta, De’Andre Hunter could return to the lineup tonight (gametime decision) as he practiced in full on Sunday. They did just lose at Indiana, but the Hawks have won seven straight at home and their last time here saw them destroy Phoenix by 32. Coming off extended rest, I believe they are well positioned to blow out their division rival tonight. 10* Atlanta

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): This worked yesterday, so I’m going with it again. As I said in the analysis for Sunday, an odd trend has developed when the Red Sox face the Orioles this season. The road team is now 9-0! Boston won yesterday, 4-3, to improve its record to 6-0 at Camden Yards. But by taking the run line (+1.5), I was a winner with Baltimore. I’ll do the same again today as the O’s look to avoid a four-game sweep at home. Their bizarre home vs. road dichotomy extends beyond facing Boston. They are 11-6 on the road, but only 4-13 at home. Eventually, that’s going to “even out” (a bit).

Only one time this season has Baltimore dropped four in a row. In the hopes of avoiding matching that streak, they will hand the baseball to Jorge Lopez on Monday. Though he hasn’t gone more than five innings, Lopez has allowed three runs or less in four consecutive starts. Baltimore is 2-2 in those games. That his worst start of the year came against the Red Sox is a little worrisome, but this time around, look for Lopez to pitch better.

Starting for Boston will be Martin Perez. He’s winless in six starts with a 3-3 TSR. Two of the three times the Red Sox have won with him on the mound, the margin of victory ended up being just one run. Again, by taking the run line, such a result would be sufficient here. The last time Perez started happened to be the last time Boston lost and that was to the woeful Tigers. Look for the home team to do no worse than a one-run loss tonight and possibly even avoid the sweep. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

10* Detroit (8:05 ET): Chicago is off B2B blowout victories, but it’s probably a case of “too little, too late” as they still trail by three games in the race for the final play-in spot. You’ve got to wonder where the team would be had leading scorer Zach LaVine not missed so much time. LaVine is now back and so is Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls have to be happy that they just beat Charlotte and Boston (two teams ahead of them) by nearly identical scores. But laying this many points with them on the road would be a bad idea. 

In last place in the Eastern Conference, Detroit is in the second game of a back to back here. They lost at Philadelphia, 118-104, and a relatively high-scoring second half cost me my Under. Not happy about that, especially after the Pistons scored just 17 points in the first quarter. I do expect them to shoot the ball better tonight and remember what I talked about in yesterday’s analysis. Though they’re giving their young players most of the minutes right now, the Pistons are probably better than their record. They are definitely better than the two teams directly ahead of them in the standings, Cleveland and Orlando. 

Chicago is just 3-5 SU its last eight games and has been favored only once during that span. The number of times this season they’ve been favored by more than five points is THREE and they lost two of those games outright. All three games were at home. There is a chance this could be the most points the Bulls have had to lay in any game all season. So there’s some real value in fading them off rare B2B blowout victories. The Pistons are 17-9 ATS off a double digit loss. 10* Detroit

10* Under Phillies/Braves (7:05 ET): These teams have gone Over five straight times when playing each other, however yesterday’s 8-7 final was a highly misleading score as baseball’s “new” extra inning rules provided for a lot of fireworks in the added frames. Atlanta rallied for the win, but it took two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie it at 3-3. After no scoring in the 10th, each team put a run on the board in the 11th. Then came the 12th where the Phillies scored three times only for the Braves to score four and win the game in dramatic fashion. 

With two strong starting pitchers on the mound, I look for tonight’s game to see a lot less runs scored. For Philadelphia, it’s Aaron Nola, who has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts. The Phillies are 5-2 in Nola starts and he matched a season-high with 10 strikeouts his last time out. The Over is 3-0 his L3 starts, but not because of him as his WHIP is 1.00 during that time. For the year, you’re looking at a 2.89 ERA and 0.985 WHIP.

Atlanta turns to Huascar Ynoa, who happens to have the lowest ERA (2.43) in the rotation. This despite him only having a spot due to an injury to Mike Soroka. The only run allowed by Ynoa in his last two starts was unearned and he’s allowed only eight in 12 ⅓ IP. He’s allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts this season and has a 0.90 WHIP. Braves’ home games have been pretty high-scoring so far, averaging 11.1 runs per game (!), but that number will assuredly start to drop and I’m on the Under here. 10* Under Phillies/Braves

10* Juventus (2:45 ET): The Scudetto has already been decided (congrats to Inter Milan), but the three remaining Champions League spots in Serie A are still to be determined. Here, we’ve got a battle of top five teams in the table on Sunday as Juventus hosts AC Milan. While Juve’s nine-year run as Serie A champs has officially come to end, they are actually #1 in expected points this campaign, slightly ahead of Inter. The importance of this match really can’t be understated as one point currently separates second from fifth in the Serie A table. I like Juve to get the full three today. 

While both of these sides come in with the same number of actual points (69), expected points tell a different story. I already mentioned that Juve is #1 in all of Serie A in expected points (w/ 72) and there’s a decided gap between them and Milan (59). I’d say Inter, Juve and Atalanta are clearly the three best teams in the league and likely to finish 1-2-3. The race for the fourth spot should come down to Milan and Napoli, who won for me yesterday (4-1) over Spezia. 

The reverse fixture back in January was won by Juve, 3-1, in San Siro. The former nine-time champs have been pretty dominant on home soil this season, taking the maximum points on 13 of 17 occasions. Only Inter has been more successful at home. AC Milan has lost nine straight times here and overall they’ve been fading in 2021, getting ousted in the Europa League by Manchester United and most of their wins in the Italian top flight coming against bottom of the table sides. They’d dropped B2B games before a 2-0 win over Benevento last week. Thanks to Cristiano Ronaldo scoring twice, Juve was able to come back against underrated Udinese last week. Ronaldo has now scored multiple goals in nine different matches this season. 10* Juventus

8* Run Line Baltimore (1:05 ET): An odd trend has developed when the Red Sox play the Orioles. The road team has won all eight of this season’s meetings! Boston now holds the 5-3 overall head to head edge after winning 11-6 here at Camden Yards on Saturday. Perhaps we should not be all that shocked by the aforementioned trend considering it’s right in line with Baltimore’s overall play this season. The O’s are tied for the most road wins (11) in all of baseball, but are just 4-12 at home. From the “just due” department, I give you a play on Baltimore today. Please note that I’m taking them on the run line (+1.5). 

I certainly did not expect to see Boston leading the AL East this season. But they are out in front with a 21-13 record. They are 11-4 on the road, including 6-1 as a -125 to -175 favorite. But can they keep this up? Over the L7 games, the Red Sox have allowed an average of 6.1 runs per game. Their offense continues to “bail them out,” but it just doesn’t seem like a sustainable blueprint for success. They are actually just 2-6 their L8 games if the opponent surrendered five or more runs the previous game. That is the case here. 

None of the previous eight head to head matchups between these teams were decided by one run. So I think we’re due for one of those today. Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the bump. He’s still in search of his 1st win, but is coming off his best start yet where he held Seattle to one run on two hits (6 IP). Boston’s Nick Pivetta had his worst start of 2021 come against the Orioles when he allowed four runs on April 11th. That was another game where the offense bailed the Red Sox out (won 14-9), but that can only happen so many times. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

10* Brooklyn (10:05 ET): The Nets’ current four-game losing streak is a season-worst. Previous to this, they’d only lost three in a row one other time and that was back in early February. After that three-game losing streak, the team proceeded to win (and cover) its next eight games. But a 113-109 loss at Dallas Thursday night ensured there would be no repeat of that. The Nets have also now failed to cover four in a row. There’s only been one longer ATS losing skid this season and that occurred in the first seven games of the season. But I do see Brooklyn bouncing back tonight in Denver as the Nuggets find themselves in the second half of a challenging back to back. 

Last night, the Nuggets were in Utah and lost to the Jazz 127-120. Now in fourth place in the Western Conference, they have a very comfortable lead (five games) over fifth place Dallas, but last night’s loss leaves them one game back of the Clippers. I don’t see Denver catching the Clips. Not without PG Jamal Murray, whose season is done due to an ACL tear. While the Nuggets have actually fared quite well (so far) w/o Murray (10-3 SU), they’ve dropped two of three and the injuries have really started to pile up with Morris, Barton and Dozier all out. 

Brooklyn is missing James Harden and is just 10-9 SU without him. But they still have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the latter of whom scored 45 against the Mavs Thursday. There’s a greater sense of urgency for the Nets right now (compared to Denver) as they are now three games back of first place Philadelphia in the East and tied with Milwaukee for second. The Nets haven’t shot the ball all that well the L4 games, odd for a team that averages 118.5 PPG, while I don’t see Denver matching last night’s 51.8% shooting. The Nets won by six when these teams met in January to improve to 5-1 ATS L6 meetings. 10* Brooklyn

10* Under Greene/Rogerio de Lima (8:50 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division. Maurice Greene is 9-5 overall in his career, including 4-3 in the UFC. His opponent, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, is 17-7-1 overall and 6-5 in the UFC. Based on Rogeria de Lima’s track record, I do not expect this fight to go very long. I’ve got the Under 1.5 rounds. 

The vast majority of Rogerio de Lima’s 25 professional bouts have ended in the first round. The exact number is 16 and that includes the last two, a win over Ben Sosoli in February of last year and a loss to Alexander Romanov in November. Then you can throw in the fact that only one of Rogerio de Lima’s fights since 2014 has made it to the third round. The Under 1.5 rounds would have cashed in 14 of his last 16 fights. Rogerio de Lima is always going to come out looking to swing. Either he gets the early knockout, or gasses and gets knocked out himself. 

Greene has lost three of four with the most recent defeat coming at the hands former NFL player Greg Hardy back on Halloween night. That was an early second round stoppage (TKO), the fifth straight fight for Green that ended in a stoppage. He’s had just four decisions in his career and two of them came in his very first two professional fights. He has a submission game, so if this fight does get down on the mat, look out for that. But the bottom line here is that, no matter how this fight ends, it won’t take long. 10* Under Greene/Rogerio de Lima

8* Under Pistons/76ers (7:05 ET): With five games left in their regular season, Philadelphia holds a three-game lead over both Milwaukee and Brooklyn in the chase for the Eastern Conference’s #1 seed. So it certainly looks like the road to the NBA Finals will go through the City of Brotherly Love. The team held on for a 109-107 win over short-handed New Orleans (no Zion) last night, thanks to Joel Embiid’s 37 points and 13 rebounds. While they did not cover the spread, it was the eighth straight win for Philly. 

Detroit is last in the Eastern Conference, some 26 games behind Philadelphia. I actually believe the Pistons are slightly better than their 20-47 SU record, or at least better than the two teams directly ahead of them: Cleveland and Orlando. However, down the stretch, it’s been pretty clear that the team is more interested in evaluating its young players as opposed to “winning now.” However they did shock Memphis on Thursday, 111-97 as nine-point underdogs, ending a four-game losing streak. 

Philadelphia is #2 in the league in defensive efficiency whereas Detroit is 26th in offensive efficiency, so you have to figure the Pistons won’t be scoring too many points this evening. All five of their starters were in double figures Thursday and they shot 53% overall as a team. A repeat of that is highly unlikely as two of the previous three games saw them fail to break 100 points. The Pistons are 19-8 Under coming off a non-conference game. The 76ers are on a 7-2 Under run vs. losing teams and have held five of their last seven opponents to 107 points or less. 8* Under Pistons/76ers

10* Over Rays/Athletics (4:07 ET): These teams have met five times this season and none of the five games have seen more than seven total runs scored. Thus, the Under has gone 5-0. Four of the five games have seen five or fewer runs scored with three seeing three or less. Yesterday was a 2-1 Oakland victory as they are now ahead 3-2 in the season series with Tampa Bay. Despite so much evidence to the contrary, I’m going with the Over here as the two teams are due to put some runs on the board. 

It’s not just this season. The Under is 11-2 in the L13 games between the Rays and A’s. But Oakland had gone Over in five of six games before yesterday’s series opener. A big reason for that is they allowed eight or more runs in three of the games. Frankie Montas, who gets the starting nod Saturday, saw his last start go Over. Though that was a 5-4 A’s victory. There have been two times this year that Montas has allowed 6+ runs while lasting four innings or less. Here he’ll be facing a TB lineup that - despite only three hits yday - is averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road. 

The Rays’ week began with a four-game sweep of the Angels out in Los Angeles. They scored at least seven runs in three of those wins. So I think they’ll do better at the plate today. As for Oakland’s hitters, they’ll face Tyler Glasnow, who has allowed multiple home runs in two of his past three starts. There’s no denying that it’s been a strong start to 2021 for Glasnow, but there was a start vs. Toronto where he allowed five runs. The Over is 4-1 in the Rays’ last five as a road favorite. 10* Over Rays/Athletics

8* Run Line San Francisco (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Giants at +1.5. Despite leading the NL West with a 19-13 record, the Giants don’t seem to be getting the requisite amount of respect they deserve. This division was supposed to be a “two-horse” race between the Dodgers and Padres, but thanks to excellent pitching, the Giants are up on both of those teams. They beat the Padres 5-4 yesterday and are now 4-3 against them this season. Four of the seven games have been decided by one run and in a game that isn’t likely to have many runs, I’ll take the +1.5 Saturday. 

While they had only four hits last night, the Giants jumped out to a 4-0 lead and all of the Padres' scoring was confined to one inning. San Francisco is now 11-3 at home and that’s easily the best such mark in baseball right now. It’s a dominant 11-3 too; the Giants are outscoring the opposition by nearly two full runs per game here and allowing an opposing batting average of .177! Kevin Gausman will get the starting nod today and he’s unbeaten in six starts with a 2.04 ERA and 0.882 WHIP. He’s allowed 1 ER or less in five of those six starts. 

Joe Musgrove, who will go for the Padres Saturday, did throw a no-hitter on April 9th vs. Texas. But he’s seen his ERA rise each of the four starts since, three of which saw him last five innings or less. The last one was against Gausman and the Giants. The Padres lost that game 7-1 with Musgrove giving up six of the runs last Sunday. Meanwhile, the only run allowed in six innings by Gausman was on a solo HR. The Giants are 9-2 in day games as well. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

10* Bayer Leverkusen (9:30 AM ET): Two sides with very different goals  meet Saturday on the pitch as slumping Werder Bremen hosts top six Bayer Leverkusen. I’m quite shocked at the cheap price on the visitors here. Werder Bremen has lost seven straight in the Bundesliga and is now in grave danger of falling into the relegation playoff for a second straight year, or even worse. They are just one point clear of safety after Hertha Berlin won on Thursday. As badly as Bremen needs points right now, I don’t see them getting any Saturday as Leverkusen looks to cement their spot in the top six of the table. 

By finishing in the top six, Leverkusen would earn a chance to play European football next season in Europa League qualification. Under new manager Hannes Wolf, they have earned 10 points out of possible 15. The only loss in those five fixtures was to Bayern Munich and there’s no shame there. Prior to last week’s break, Leverkusen bounced back from that loss with a very solid 3-1 win over top four Eintracht Frankfurt. They’ve played two other bottom of the table sides under Wolf (Koln and Schalke) and won both with a 5-1 goal advantage. 

Even stepping outside Bundesliga action could not right the ship for Werder Bremen last week. While Leverkusen was on break, Bremen lost 2-1 in the DFB-Pokal semi final to RB Leipzig in extra time. They’ve now lost eight of nine across all competitions, including the aforementioned 0-7 run in the Bundesliga. The last time Bremen beat a team in the German top flight was 3/10, a 2-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld, another side in danger of being relegated. That was also the last time they scored more than one goal in any fixture. Having played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture (back in January), Leverkusen will not be taking this one lightly. 10* Bayer Leverkusen

6* Napoli (9:00 AM ET): After failing to take all three points from Cagliari, Napoli looks to bounce back and continue their pursuit of a top four finish in Serie A. Giving up a (very) late equalizer last week proved very costly as two points is now the difference between Napoli and the three sides they are chasing for Champions League qualification. But having scored at least one goal in 22 consecutive matches and unbeaten in their last five, there’s no reason for the Partenopei to panic. This week they’ll be facing Spezia, another bottom of the table side, and I don’t see the full three points slipping through their fingers again. 

A newly promoted side for 2020/21, Spezia looked as if it would easily remain in the Italian top flight with a decent start to the campaign. But recently they’ve fallen on hard times. Winless in their last four, they’ve earned just five points since the start of April and that’s left them dangerously close to the relegation zone entering the stretch run. Currently, they are only three points clear. But the final four fixtures of the season won’t be easy, meaning it will be a tough battle with Benevento and Cagliari to see who is the third relegated Serie A side (alongside Parma and Crotone). 

Spezia is unbeaten in its last six home matches, but I don’t see that streak lasting any longer. Yes, the Bianconeri did win the reverse fixture 2-1 back in January, but it was a much different story in the Coppa Italia (4-2) only a few weeks later. Spezia pulling off a “Serie A double” seems highly improbable given Napoli’s scoring punch. Napoli has also won six of the last seven head to head battles with Spezia. Over their last 11 fixtures, Napoli has been beaten only once and that was by nine-time champion Juventus. They’ve won eight. Only Atalanta has scored more goals this season. Should be an easy one for the visitors. 6* Napoli

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians impressed me yesterday when they finished off a four-game sweep at Kansas City. They now lead the AL Central with a 17-13 record and have won five straight overall. As per usual, pitching is carrying this team as they’ve posted two shutouts during the five-game win streak, including yday’s 4-0 win. A Cincinnati team that has scored only one run in its last two games (and it came in extra innings) isn’t likely to turn things around at the plate and for the second time today I’ll look to fade the visiting National League team in an Interleague matchup. 

The Reds got off to a fast start, but now sit a game below .500 (14-15) on the season. They have not been particularly good on the road where they are 4-8 with just 2.9 runs per game scored. Troubling is the fact they are giving up 5.2 runs per game overall as the bullpen isn’t very good. While they did beat the White Sox Wednesday in extra innings, 1-0, the Reds gave up a total of 21 runs the previous two games and have been shut out three times in the L10 games. Two of those shutout losses were by eight runs or more. 

Zach Plesac doesn’t have the greatest ERA (4.78) for Cleveland, but his WHIP (1.187) tells a bit of a different story. He’s faced the White Sox three times already and the third time was the charm as he shut them out for 5 ⅔ innings Sunday in a 5-0 win. Plesac won’t have to face Joey Votto, who is injured. Wade Miley goes for the Reds and his worst start of 2021 came against Cleveland when he allowed two home runs in a 6-3 loss. Now he’s got to pitch in an American League park. The Reds have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six games and six of the last ten. 8* Cleveland

9* Orlando (8:05 ET): This is definitely more of a fade on Charlotte than any kind of endorsement of Orlando. The Hornets got blown out last night, here at home by Chicago, 120-99. A team I have been skeptical of for most of this season probably shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody, let alone on the second night of a back to back. I suppose that theory will be put to the test tonight as the Magic are off a 36-point home loss to Boston the other night. Look for them to play a lot better here and take the points. 

Prior to getting blown out by Boston, the Magic had won two in a row. One of those was in Detroit and the other at home against Memphis. It’s been a long season for the Magic, who have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. But a division game where they are getting a lot of points, and off a blowout loss, is a good “buy low” spot. They’ve already split two games with Charlotte this season with the loss coming by only three points on the road. 

The Hornets continue to deal with injuries, even though LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk are back. Devonte Graham is questionable for tonight after also sitting last night and forward Miles Bridges is also out. Ball shot 1 for 10 against the Bulls, but the team was actually 16 of 35 from three and still lost by 21 at home (and scored less than 100 points). Charlotte is a below average team by the numbers. Reports out of Orlando is that the team had a good practice following the humiliating loss on Wednesday. I don’t see them getting blown out again. 9* Orlando

7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Both the Braves and Phillies are off to great starts this week. Each swept its previous opponent and now are set to renew pleasantries. This is already the third series between the NL East rivals this season. The Phillies swept the first (in Philly) before the Braves nearly returned the favor, taking two of three here at home (lost the last game). It will be full capacity at Truist Park this weekend as Atlanta is off a six-game road trip where they were swept by Toronto and then swept the Nationals. The Phillies are coming off a seven-game home stand, which ended with four straight wins over the Brewers. 

I like the Braves here as Philly has not been good on the road. The Phils are just 4-9 away from the City of Brotherly Love and getting outscored by two full runs per game! They turn to Zach Eflin for Friday’s opener and he has a 6.39 ERA on the road so far. Alarming is the number of hits Eflin has allowed as he’s given up 19 in just the last two starts alone. He’s allowed at least seven hits in five consecutive starts. This will be the third time Eflin has faced Atlanta this season and true to his team’s form, the home game was a win while the road game was a loss. Though the Phils are 17-15, they have a -12 run differential. 

The Braves gave up just six runs against the Nationals and hope Charlie Morton can continue the string of strong efforts on the mound. Morton, like Eflin, has struggled a bit of late. This will be his third time starting against the Phillies and of course, the home game resulted in a win while the road game was a loss. At home, Morton held them to one run in six innings. Atlanta is the stronger offensive team and that should propel them to victory tonight. 7* Atlanta

7* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees failed to sweep the Astros yesterday, instead losing 7-4, but I don’t think there’s any denying the fact that the team wearing pinstripes has turned things around of late. The Bronx Bombers are 10-4 their L14 games and were in position to sweep the last series as they led the Astros 3-2 before uncharacteristically giving up five runs across the final two innings. No team in the American League is giving up fewer runs per game than are the Yanks (3.5) and I like them to bounce back with a win today in the opener of a three-game set with Washington. 

This being an interleague series, the Nationals get to use the DH. But they might need more than that after going 1 for 21 with runners in scoring position in the last series, which saw them get swept at home by the Braves. They were 1 for 12 w/ RISP yday alone. It’s not been a great start to the season for the Nats, who are 12-15 and in last place in the NL East. They have the 4th worst run differential (-22) in all of baseball and second worst in the National League. It certainly doesn’t help that Friday starter Patrick Corbin has an 8.10 ERA and 1.757 WHIP in five starts this year. He’s been particularly bad on the road.

For the Yankees, Friday starter Jameson Taillon has been solid at home where he’s got a 2.54 ERA and 0.954 WHIP. Visiting teams are scoring just 3.2 runs per game here at Yankee Stadium while batting .193. So, again, the addition of a DH to their lineup is not necessarily a “panacea” for Washington here. Corbin has been better after getting rocked each of his first two starts, but he still has just as many walks as strikeouts in his L2 outings and he’s allowed seven home runs already. The Yankees are 90-43 at home the L3 seasons. 7* NY Yankees

8* Real Sociedad (3:00 ET): So we’ve got a side trying to finish in the top five taking on a side trying to escape relegation here. The former is Real Sociedad, who suffered a bit of a head-scratching 1-0 defeat to Huesca last week on an own-goal. They are still fifth in the table, with no chance to finish fourth (17 point difference), but both Villarreal and Real Betis are hot on the 2020 Copa Del Rey Champions’ heels (just one and two points back, respectively). Sociedad doesn’t dare blow a second opportunity to pick up three points at the expense of a bottom of the table side and I’ll go with them here at home. 

The drama over who finishes fifth (and qualifies for the Europa League) in La Liga actually pales in comparison to what’s going on at the bottom of the table. The fight to avoid relegation sees just five points separating the bottom five sides. In the mix is Elche, in 19th place, but only a win away from safety. While Elche has played decent football the last two weeks, beating Levante 1-0 and losing by the same score to 1st place Atletico Madrid, Understat still has them with the fewest number of “expected points” in all of La Liga. Their -21 goal differential is second worst in the league. I can see them getting relegated. 

A big reason for this play is that no other La Liga side has been worse on their travels than Elche, who has picked up only 10 points from 17 away matches this season. In terms of expected goals scored and allowed, they are the worst in the league in both categories. Real Sociedad has been a solid home team for most of the campaign and this is among the easiest fixtures. They won the reverse 3-0 back in September. Like I said at the outset, Sociedad can’t have a second straight miss on the full three (points). 8* Real Sociedad

8* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): I have the Clippers rated #2 in my own power rankings (Utah is #1). But right now they are tied for third in the conference and could be looking at a first round playoff matchup with the Lakers. They probably want to avoid that, even though they are already 2-0 vs. the Lakers this season. Ironically, if they were to beat their rival again here it would increase the probability of that first round playoff matchup happening. But I don’t think the Clippers care about that right now. They’ve lost three of five and see a Lakers team that won’t have LeBron James tonight. I think the Clips win big. 

The Lakers won’t have James (rest) or Dennis Schroeder (quarantine), so that’s their two primary ball-handlers out. They did just win in Denver, but the Lakers have been struggling of late with only two wins in the last eight games. The win in Denver snapped a seven-game ATS losing skid. I just don’t like the way the Lakers are trending and it seems unlikely they will turn things around with James out of the lineup, although they did win Monday without him. But the Lakers have been bad as underdogs, going 4-15 straight up and 6-13 against the spread. 

The Clippers now have Kawhi Leonard back and while they are 0-2 ATS since his return, the lineup they’ll have on the court tonight is going to be much stronger than what the Lakers trot out. Patrick Beverley returned from injury on Tuesday. The last five games have seen the Clippers go 0-5 ATS and average only 104.4 PPG. I see them “breaking out” at the offensive end in this game. They beat the Lakers by 18 last month. Anthony Davis is back for the Purple & Gold, but James isn’t and Schroeder’s absence will be felt as well. 8* LA Clippers

8* Over Grizzlies/Pistons (8:05 ET): Another game I expect to go Over Thursday night features two teams facing very different realities at the present time. Memphis, who won a wild 139-135 game last night in Minnesota, is trying to lock down a spot in the play-in round. Currently 8th in the West, things seem secure, though the lead over 11th place New Orleans is still only 3.5 games. Detroit is dead last in the Eastern Conference and has lost four in a row. They’ve got nothing to play for the rest of the way, although escaping the basement would be nice. Recent starting lineups show that the focus seems to be the future, and not the present, though. 

Memphis shot 53.6 percent against the Timberwolves last night and made 14 threes. At the same time, their defense was not very good as they allowed Minnesota to make 19 threes and shoot 52.1% overall. It was the third straight Grizzlies’ game to go Over the total and only five of their games in the L30 days have stayed Under. Last night was the eighth time this season they scored 130 or more and also the eighth time they allowed 130+. They gave up a 40-point quarter last night, but also had one of their own. Ja Morant had 37 points and 10 assists. 

Detroit seems to be tanking, although they did stay within the number vs. Charlotte on Tuesday. That was a low-scoring game (103-99 final) where they and the Hornets combined to make 17 of 63 three-point attempts. The Pistons have been holding out some of their regular starters in order to give some “youngsters” a try and the results aren’t always pretty. The three rookies combined to shoot 4 of 23 from the field on Tuesday. We should see improvement tonight. 8* Over Grizzlies/Pistons

8* Over Nets/Mavericks (7:35 ET): Brooklyn has lost three in a row for only the second time all year. The other three-game slide occurred back in early February and the team would go on to win (and cover) each of its next eight games. HC Steve Nash has to be hoping for something similar now that it’s crunch time in the regular season and the Nets no longer hold the tiebreaker against the Bucks after two close losses in Milwaukee this week. James Harden has missed 17 of the last 18 games and the team is just 10-8 SU in that stretch. But the Nets still have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They are only two games back of first place Philadelphia. Honestly, no one should be panicking in Brooklyn right now.

With wins in seven of their last nine games, the Mavs aren’t panicking either. But they still find themselves locked in their own tight three-way battle. It’s not for the top spot in the conference like Brooklyn’s is, but rather to avoid the play-in round. Right now, Dallas is tied for fifth with the Lakers, but they are only one-half game up on Portland. One of those three teams is going to be relegated to a play-in situation. The Mavs have been openly hostile to the notion of the play-in round and I do expect them to avoid it. What’s interesting about their 7-2 SU run is that both losses came to Sacramento. 

It’s not quite as rare as losing three in a row, but Brooklyn is also 3-0 Under its last three games. It’s only the third time this year they’ve gone Under in three or more consecutive games. Tuesday’s 124-118 loss to the Bucks BARELY stayed Under (total was 242.5). The number here is lower and they are facing a team that’s scored 125 or more in three of its last five games. The Mavs may not match the near 53% shooting from their last game, a 127-113 win over Miami, but they won’t have to as I expect the Nets to be pretty prolific tonight. 8* Over Nets/Mavericks

10* Kansas City (2:10 ET): Yesterday marked a season-first for Cleveland as they finally won a one-run game. They’d previously been 0-4 in such affairs and were the only team in MLB yet to win one. The 5-4 win yday enabled the Tribe to pull into a three-way tie (w/ the Royals and White Sox) atop the AL Central (all teams 16-13). A discrepancy in performance in one-run games was a big reason the Royals (6-2 in one-run games) came into this series with a three-game lead over the Indians, but that’s now gone. However, I do see KC avoiding the dreaded four-game sweep at home due to who they’ll have on the mound Thursday afternoon. 

In his 11th year with the club, left-hander Danny Duffy is having perhaps his best season for the Royals. He’s 4-1 w/ a microscopic 0.60 ERA and 0.967 WHIP. Some have credited an increased velocity on his fastball as the reason we’re seeing these results. Whatever the reason, Duffy has allowed just five total runs so far in 30 IP. He’s allowed four or fewer hits in four of the five starts. His very first start of 2021 was against Cleveland and he allowed only two hits in six shutout innings. 

Even though they were facing Indians’ ace Shane Bieber, the Royals did jump out to a 4-0 lead in yesterday’s game. A three-run sixth then closed the gap for Cleveland, who then got homers from Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor (in the 8th and 9th respectively) to “steal” the game. Kansas City actually outhit the Tribe 9-6. After giving up a grand slam in his last outing, Thursday’s starter for Cleveland (Triston McKenzie) is still winless (in four starts) and has a 7.20 ERA/1.733 WHIP this season. He walked the bases loaded before giving up that GS to the White Sox. McKenzie has yet to make it past the fifth inning. I like the pitching matchup from KC’s perspective and home teams don’t get swept in four game series very often. 10* Kansas City

10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): The Kings won their third straight game last night, squeaking by the Thunder (in OKC) 103-99. I had the Under there, which was an easy win (cashed by 27 points!), as I loved the fact that both teams were playing without their respective leading scorers. The loss of De’Aaron Fox hasn’t seemed to bother Sacramento all that much however, as the team has not only won (and covered) three straight, but also five of its last seven. I’ll take the points Wednesday as Indiana is even more banged up than the Kings.

The Pacers have scored an incredible 293 points their last two games. That’s the good news. While they turned in the biggest road win in NBA history (at OKC) on Saturday (152-95), they turned around and gave up 154 (no OT!) to the Wizards on Monday. They allowed the Wizards to shoot 61.2% from the field, an alarming number which included only nine made three-pointers for the Wiz. Indiana has not been good ATS at home all year, owning an 8-22 record. There are rumors that HC Nate Bjorkgren’s future here may be in some trouble as he’s had trouble “gelling” with players & staff. 

Sacramento isn’t likely to make the playoffs, but this three-game win streak shows they aren’t going down without a fight. Beating the Thunder isn’t anything special, but the two previous wins were against the Lakers (w/ LeBron) and Dallas. Indiana will likely be in the “play-in” tournament in the Eastern Conference, but is also four games below .500 and the record-setting thrashing of the Thunder is their only win in the L4 games. With seven players listed as questionable or out, the Pacers shouldn’t be laying this many points. 10* Sacramento

8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): My condolences to anyone who may have bet the Cavs last night. A double digit home dog, they took Phoenix into overtime but did NOT get the cover as they were outscored 20-4 in the extra five minute period. That’s tough. But I’ll use that result to my advantage tonight as the Cavs are again catching double digits at home, but facing a weaker opponent. Having failed to cover any of their last seven games, Cleveland is “due” to get the cash sooner rather than later. So take the points here. 

Portland comes into C-town off a 123-114 loss at Atlanta. This is the final game of a six-game trip out East for the Blazers and while they won the first four, the schedule is bound to catch up with them. This is their third road game in four nights, always a tough situation. While the Blazers do have a 20-13 SU road record this season, they are outscoring teams by just 1.2 points per game. So they should feel fortunate to have that record. Quite frankly, I’ve been skeptical of this team finishing in the top six in the West for some time now. 

The Blazers are just one game back of Dallas and the Lakers for sixth. They could end up finishing as high as fifth, but I don’t see that happening. This team is very bad defensively as they give up the second highest number of points per possession in the league (only Sacramento is worse). Though Portland wasn’t nearly as healthy the first time these teams met, it’s notable they were only -3.5 at home. This is the most points they’ve been asked to lay on the road all season and it’s only the third time they’re set to go off as a DD favorite, period. 8* Cleveland

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): The Brewers have lost three straight, including the first two games of this series (both by one run). But despite the losing streak, this remains a quality ballclub and my favorite to win the NL Central this year. While it’s true they have a negative YTD run differential, that’s largely a byproduct of one bad game (Sunday’s 16-4 loss to the Dodgers). The Brew Crew have been getting outstanding starting pitching thus far and I expect that to be the case tonight when they send Freddy Peralta to the mound.

Peralta is unbeaten in five starts (3-0) with a 4-1 TSR. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and is coming off an incredibly impressive outing where he held the Dodgers to just one hit (a solo HR) in six innings last Friday. Peralta has allowed just 12 hits so far (in 26 IP) and has 39 strikeouts. Despite losing each of the L2 days, the Brewers are still 9-5 on the road where they are outscoring the opposition by a full run per game. They were also 8-2 off a loss coming into this series. 

The Phillies lead the NL East right now, but that’s not saying much as their WL record is 15-15 and they have a -15 run differential. They come into today batting just .216 the L7 games. I don’t expect much out of starter Chase Anderson, who has a 6.39 ERA and 1.657 WHIP in his L3 starts. The Phils are just 1-4 with Anderson on the mound this season and have yet to score more than four runs in any of those five starts. Anderson did pick up a win his last time out, but that was against the light-hitting Mets. 10* Milwaukee

8* Seattle (3:40 ET): Because Baltimore is 10-6 in road games this season and has its best starter (John Means) going this afternoon, we’re able to grab a fairly cheap price on the opposition. I say “go for it” as the Mariners won 5-2 yesterday and I am unconvinced Means alone can carry the Orioles to victory here. Despite the surprisingly good record in road games so far, the O’s project to be a pretty lousy team in 2021 and should lose 90+ games. I think now is a good time to fade, before the bottom drops out. 

Seattle hasn’t exactly been a great offensive team thus far. So opposite Means, they’ll need a good start today from Yusei Kikuchi. Fortunately, Kikuchi looked great his last time out as he allowed just one hit over seven scoreless innings. He’d struggled some in the two starts before that, but has gone 6+ innings while allowing 3 ER or less three times this season. Baltimore has faced Kikuchi only one time previous to this. It was 2019 and Kikuchi pitched well (3 ER allowed in 6 IP) in what turned out to be a 13-3 win. 

The Mariners have now won four of six following yesterday’s 5-2 victory. One situation they have particularly excelled in this season is day games where their record is 10-3. Key here is that I don’t believe Baltimore is going to score many runs. They are hitting .218 in games vs. LH starters. While it’s unlikely Seattle scores a ton of runs today, they have already won a game against Means this season when they beat the Orioles 4-3 at Camden Yards on 4/13. The three runs allowed by Means in that start are a season-high. 8* Seattle

8* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): Toronto will look to make it an “LA double” tonight as they face the Clippers on TNT. Sunday saw the Raptors pull off an upset of the Lakers (as 10.5-point dogs). The 121-114 win was much needed as not only did it snap a three-game losing streak, but it also kept the team’s fleeting playoff hopes alive. While I do think the Raptors are better than their overall record shows, it’s hard to look past an 11-22 SU record on the road this season. Kawhi Leonard is back for the Clippers and now it’s their turn to snap a three-game losing streak. Lay the points. 

Leonard made his official return on Saturday, playing 30 minutes in the Clips’ 110-104 loss to Denver. That loss dropped the team into fourth place in the Western Conference, even though they own the league’s second best net efficiency rating (trailing only Utah). I expect a big finish to the regular season from them, starting here, as the current three-game slide matches their longest of the season. The only previous time they were on a three-game losing streak, they responded by destroying Golden State 130-104. 

The Clippers have not shot the ball recently and have failed to score 110 points in any of the last four games. Look for that to change here as this is the #2 team in the league in offensive efficiency and they still are averaging 116.7 PPG at home. Toronto is playing its fourth road game in six days, not to mention third in the last four, and the previous opponents were Denver, Utah and the Lakers. So this is the end of a treacherous gauntlet and I can see them being out of gas. 8* LA Clippers

10* Under Kings/Thunder (8:05 ET): Two of the league’s bottom five teams meet tonight in OKC with nothing on the line other than pride. Sacramento is going to miss the playoffs for a 15th consecutive season (longest active streak in the NBA), although they do come into Tuesday having won four of six including the first two games of this four-game road trip. Oklahoma City has fallen into the abyss with just one win since the start of April and recently suffered the worst home defeat in NBA history. They are at the bottom of my power ratings. 

These teams have not met at all this season, but will play three times in the next eight days. If only the Kings were closer to playoff contention, this would be a great opportunity for them to end that long playoff drought. Give them credit for upsetting both the Lakers (w/ LeBron) and Mavericks though. Surprisingly, it was defense that was largely responsible for those upsets as they held those teams to 106 and 99 points respectively. I cashed the Under when they beat the Lakers.

A big reason why I’m taking the Under here is both teams are without their leading scorers. De’Aaron Fox continues to be in quarantine for Sacramento and making matters worse is that PG Tyrese Haliburton is now out as well after suffering a leg injury in the Dallas game. So don’t look for the Kings to match their 55% shooting from the last game. OKC losing 20 of its last 22 games coincides with the loss of their leading scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they were already last in the league in offensive efficiency. The Thunder have failed to reach 100 points in three of the last six games. 10* Under Kings/Thunder

8* San Antonio (10:05 ET): Admittedly, this looks like a challenging spot for the Spurs. They lost for the third straight time yesterday and it was the second straight loss in overtime. They’ve played three OT games in the last seven days. Now they must turn around and head to Salt Lake City where the league-leading Jazz await. But Utah has been much shakier of late, at least at the betting window where they’re 1-4 ATS L5 and 3-8 ATS L11. I’ll take the points as this is a critical game for San Antonio. 

Friday saw the Spurs blow all of a 32-point lead and lose to Boston 143-140 in overtime. Jayson Tatum scored 60 for the Celtics in that one. Yesterday, San Antonio actually rallied from a 10-point 4Q deficit to force OT. But it was still the same painful end result as they went down 113-111. On the bright side, the team is now 5-1 ATS in its L6 games. But they’ve lost three in a row SU (all by 5 points or less) and their lead over New Orleans for the final playoff spot is down to 2.5 games. It’s imperative that they turn things around.

The fact they took the Sixers to OT yesterday was actually impressive when you consider the Spurs were down four starters. Two of them - DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl - rested and should be back tonight. This will be the first of two straight games in Salt Lake City (next one is Wednesday). Over the last five games, Utah has just one win by more than four points. They’ve actually lost three of the five outright, including two to Minnesota. So the Jazz aren’t immune to being upset. The Spurs are 21-9 ATS on the road this year. 8* San Antonio

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): You may remember the last time I went with the Pistons. It was April 19th and they actually closed as a dog, here at home, vs. Cleveland. They would go on to win that game 109-105 after jumping out to an early 32-9 lead. Despite the fact the Pistons were the last place team in the East and starting several young players, I was adamant that they were a better team than Cleveland. Three weeks later, they’re still in last and still going with a youth movement. But I feel even stronger about the Pistons being a better team than Orlando, who they’ll host Monday. You’ll want to lay the short number in this one. 

By most objective measures, it’s pretty obvious that the Pistons are better than the Magic. They’ve got a better per game point differential (-4.0) compared to Orlando (-8.3). Not only are the Magic last in the East in PD, they are also last in net efficiency rating. I’ve got them from second from the bottom overall in my own personal power ratings, ahead of only Oklahoma City. Detroit, despite having the worst record in the Eastern Conference, is actually ahead of six teams in the power ratings. Orlando does have the better won-loss record, but only by a game and that discrepancy can be rectified tonight. 

You may also recall that I just faded the Pistons on Friday when they lost to Charlotte 107-94. But that was a road game. At home, Detroit isn’t bad defensively as they allow just 107.7 PPG, which is much less than they give up on the road. Orlando is off a win here, just their third since April 1st, so now it’s an appropriate time to fade them. They scored just 75 points in their last road game and have lost 13 of 16 overall. The Pistons are 17-8 ATS off a double digit loss this season. 10* Detroit

8* Torino (2:45 ET): Still fighting off the prospect of relegation, Torino is a club due a better fate. They’ve got a better YTD goal differential than the four sides directly ahead of them in the table. Understat has their expected point total at 39, which would have them 13th. But the reality of the matter is they’ve had poor luck throughout the Serie A campaign, are tied for 17th and only technically safe (from relegation) based on GD. Cagliari’s late goal against Napoli on Sunday did them no favors, but a win today could go a long way to bring Il Toro to safety as it would bring them three points clear and ahead of Cagliari. 

Parma’s fate is basically sealed at this point. They are 11 points adrift of safety and following a 4-3 loss to bottom of the table Crotone last week, Parma will almost certainly be heading back to Serie B next season. Four straight losses have all but guaranteed their relegation after three straight years in the Italian top flight. They were a middle of the table side in 2019/20, but this season has seen them score a league-low 36 goals while conceding the second most times (70). Only Crotone, who beat them last week, has a worse YTD goal differential. Parma has the fewest number of wins in Serie A (3) this season.

Incredibly, Parma has earned just 11 points against sides currently in the bottom half of the table this season. That’s easily the fewest - by six - in the entire league. Torino beat them 3-0 in the reverse fixture and has been playing better at home recently. Though it was a 2-0 loss to Napoli last week, prior to that Torino had an unbeaten run of three matches, which included wins over Roma and Udinese. Parma will deal with multiple absences Monday and this is honestly as winnable a match as Torino has had all season long. They are underpriced. 8* Torino

8* Under Raptors/Lakers (10:05 ET): LeBron James returned Friday, but that was not enough to turn the tide for the slumping Lakers as they lost to the Kings 110-106. That was LA’s fifth loss in six games and they are 0-6 ATS in that stretch. Remember that Anthony Davis is now back as well. The team has fallen into sixth place in the Western Conference standings and is only one game ahead of Portland. Wouldn’t it be something if the defending NBA Champions were relegated to the “play-in” round? 

The Raptors, who were NBA Champions two years ago, are simply just trying to get into the play-in round. Suffering their third straight defeat last night (106-102 at Utah) certainly didn’t help the cause as Toronto is now three games back of where they need to be to get into the postseason. This has been a very trying season for the league’s only Canadian franchise as they are 10-22 SU on the road and have played no “true” home games. Injuries have played a big part in the decline as well. That said, I actually think they’ve been better than their record as they have a positive scoring differential/net efficiency rating. 

LeBron is questionable for tonight, so that’s something to keep an eye on. The last time the last two NBA Champions met was about a month ago and James didn’t play in that game either. A horrendous shooting night (39.6% overall, 5 of 33 from 3pt range) cost the Raptors in a 110-101 loss. That game actually went Over (a really low total), but you’ll notice the number is a lot higher for the rematch. I think there’s value going Under here, which I did when the Lakers lost to the Kings on Friday. As mentioned in that writeup, the one good thing for LA is that they are still #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Under Raptors/Lakers

10* New York (8:05 ET): Houston actually had a 55-49 halftime advantage last night against Golden State. But things then turned - rather dramatically - in the third quarter as the Steph Curry Warriors went on a 24-0 run and outscored the Rockets 39-12 over the 12 minute period. It ended up being a 113-87 final and now Houston must play the second half of a back to back against the surprising Knicks, who lead the NBA in points per game allowed and are an incredible 13-1 ATS their last 14 games. It’s a big number to lay on the road, but I think the Knicks are going to cover it. 

I don’t think anybody - myself included - envisioned the Knicks finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference this season. But that’s where they are and most of the metrics say this team is a legit #4 in the conference right now. As I already mentioned, they are giving up the fewest number of points in the entire NBA. Last time they took the floor, they held Chicago to just 94 points as it was commanding fourth quarter performance, leading to the Knicks’ 10th SU win in their L11 games. That win over the Bulls took place on Wednesday, meaning the Knicks have had three days off. That’s a tremendous edge to have against an opponent playing in the second night of a back to back. 

ICYMI, the Rockets scored only 87 points on 36.0% shooting last night. So they figure to struggle against Tom Thibodeau’s stingy defense. Houston is a team that has won just five games since Feb 5! They are a miserable 8-24 ATS this season coming off a double digit loss, not to mention 8-26 ATS in all home games. The Knicks have been outstanding when favored this year, going 17-5 SU/16-6 ATS. Yeah, this is a big number, especially for them. But the situation very much calls for it. The Knicks won the first meeting by 22 and the Rockets are a skeleton crew, playing out the string. 10* New York

6* Oakland (4:10 ET): Throw away that 13-game win streak and the A’s are only 3-12 in the rest of their games this season. They’ve been outscored and are on the verge of being swept here (at home) by lowly Baltimore. I made the mistake of backing them yesterday when some dreadful play in the field led to the Orioles scoring six times in the top of the third. Down 8-0 going into the bottom half of the sixth, the A’s were able to cut the lead in half, but it still ended up being an 8-4 loss on Saturday. While yesterday’s performance wasn’t exactly “inspiring,” I do think the home team bounces back today. 

We’re not likely to see a repeat of yesterday’s Oakland fielding miscues as it was two errors and two wild pitches (all in the third) that opened the door for Baltimore to jump out to that 6-0 lead. Another boon is that the A’s look to have a significant edge in today’s starting pitching matchup. Sean Manaea has been on a real roll of late, winning each of his L3 starts while posting a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The team has won the last four times he’s taken the mound with Manaea allowing just four runs in 24 innings. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in all four starts. 

Baltimore starter Bruce Zimmerman is trending in the opposite direction. He’s 0-3 his L3 starts with a 6.07 ERA and 2.024 WHIP. The team has lost each of the last four times he’s taken the mound. Zimmerman has already allowed 6 HR this season and doesn’t have many strikeouts either (just 18 in 25 ⅓ IP). He allowed four runs on nine hits his last time out, lasting only 3 ⅓ in a 5-1 loss to the Yankees. I just can’t see the A’s being swept this weekend nor can I see Baltimore’s success on the road continuing. 6* Oakland

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Cubs at +1.5. The Cubs didn’t need many runs to defeat the Reds yesterday. After giving up two in the bottom of the first, they didn’t allow any more the rest of the game and ended up winning 3-2 thanks to Nick Hoerner’s game-winning single in the sixth. The Cubs’ bullpen certainly did its job on Saturday. While this hasn’t been a good road team in 2021, I don’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss today. 

Throw away a bad start at Pittsburgh on 4/11 and the Cubs’ Trevor Williams has done a pretty good job this season. In his other four outings, Sunday’s starter has gone at least five innings while allowing no more than two runs. I know the Reds scored a lot of runs at home in the early going (of the season), but they’ve (predictably) slowed down considerably. Over the L10 games, the Reds are batting a collective .226 and they had only four hits after the first inning yesterday. Williams, who is 6-3 in his career vs. Cincinnati, can get the job done today. 

The Reds will give the baseball to Tyler Mahle for this series finale. Mahle is off to a good start, but let’s not discount how poor the team’s bullpen has been in ‘21. Going into yday’s game, Reds’ relievers had combined for a 6.49 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home. That group is a big reason why the team has been outscored by 16 runs over its L10 games. Similar to the predictable Reds’ offensive decline, the Cubs’ bats are due to improve. They’ve scored 6+ runs six times in the L14 games. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs

7* Over Jotko/Strickland (11:00 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). Krzysztof Jotko is 22-4 overall, including 9-4 in the UFC. Strickland has a very similar record at 22-3 overall, including 9-3 in UFC. Strickland will prefer this fight to be standing where he will have the edge striking. But Jotko is going to want to look for takedowns and get things on the mat as he is the superior wrestler. I envision this one likely going to the scorecards. I’ll take the Over 2.5 rounds. 

Strickland comes in as the decided favorite in this one and for good reason. After recovering from a motorcycle accident that cost him two years of his career, he came back and delivered two of the best performances of his career: a decision victory over Jack Marshman back on Halloween night, followed by a second round TKO of Branden Allen three weeks later. It should be noted that Strickland has only been stopped once in his career. That was back in 2018. Since coming to the UFC, the majority of his fights have gone to decision.

Jotko may discover it difficult to take down Strickland, who has 82% takedown defense. On a three fight wins streak, all by decision, Jotko will definitely still try to get this fight down on the mat. His best path to victory is to turn this into a bit of a slog and - while standing - keep Strickland in a clinch. I don’t know how effective he’ll be in doing that, but expect Jotko to survive nonetheless. Seven of Jotko’s last 10 fights have gone to the scorecards. This one makes it at least halfway through Round 3. 7* Over Jotko/Strickland

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Though I don’t think the Hornets are as good as their record indicates and the Pistons are probably better than theirs, the former is involved in a playoff race and the latter is last in the Eastern Conference. So when it comes down to motivation Saturday night in the Queen City, there should be no question which team is more motivated. Charlotte has also had Detroit’s number the L3 seasons, winning all nine matchups straight up (7-2 ATS) including 105-102 here back on March 11th. 

You may recall that I faded the Hornets their last time out, which was at Boston. That turned out to be the correct call as they lost 120-111 as 6.5-point dogs and are now 3-7 SU L10 games. Injuries (Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk, LaMelo Ball) have played a major role in the downturn, but they are still 8th in the East at 30-32 overall. Despite falling behind by 20 at the end of the first quarter and shooting just 42.5% for the game, the Hornets were still able to make it a competitive game in Boston. 

They should find things a lot easier tonight at home against Detroit, who is playing a lot of rookies right now. The Pistons are 3-8 SU their L11 games and lost 115-105 to Dallas Thursday despite shooting 50.7%. Virtually all of the Pistons’ wins in April came against teams that are out of playoff contention. They are a putrid 7-27 SU on the road this season and averaging only 104.4 points the L5 games overall. This is a critical stretch for Charlotte and I think they’ll start May with a big win. 10* Charlotte

7* Oakland (4:07 ET): The A’s had that 13-game win streak, but other than that are just 3-11 this season. They started 0-6 and have now lost four of six following last night’s 3-2 defeat at the hands of Baltimore, which was the 1st time the A’s dropped a home game to the O’s since 2017! Baltimore, who is not expected to be good this season, makes for prime fade material here in my opinion. Since starting 3-0, they’ve yet to win three in a row again. It won’t happen here. 

While only 4-10 at home, the Orioles are a surprising 8-4 on the road. They’re still in last place in the AL East mind you. Each of the L2 days have seen them prevail by one run, including an extra inning win over the Yankees on Thursday. They are 2-2 vs. Oakland in 2021, however both wins were with John Means as the starter. Matt Harvey will get the baseball on Saturday and he did not pitch in last weekend’s series with the A’s. He is off a shocking quality start against the Yankees on Monday, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of that here. 

Jesus Luzardo did make a start in last weekend’s series at Camden Yards and despite it being a quality one, he came out on the wrong end against Means. Two home runs are what cost Luzardo in that outing. But he’s still allowed just three runs in his last two starts (12 IP) and should get more run support this time around. Oakland had a chance to tie - or even win - the game last night as they had two runners on in the bottom of the ninth with nobody out. Look for them to improve to 9-3 in day games. 7* Oakland

7* Chi White Sox (4:05 ET): When taking the White Sox +1.5 last night, I did caution they were at a bit of a disadvantage. Not just facing Indians’ ace Shane Bieber, but also due to the fact they played a doubleheader Thursday (swept the Tigers) while the Indians had an off day. Turns out that I should have heeded my own advice. The Sox lost 5-3 Friday, although it should be pointed out that they did outhit Cleveland (8-5) in the game. Look for them to turn the tables this afternoon as Saturday’s pitching matchup is slanted much more in their favor. 

Even with yesterday’s loss, the White Sox still have one of the best run differentials (+29) in baseball. Only the Dodgers (+34) and Astros (+31) have outscored their opponents by a wider margin this season. Whereas Cleveland came into this series off a 10-2 loss (to Minnesota) on Wednesday, Chicago had won six of seven including the impressive sweep of a doubleheader on Thursday where they allowed just one total run. Speaking of strong pitching, we’ve got Lance Lynn starting today for the home team. He has a 0.92 ERA and 0.915 WHIP through three starts. 

Surprisingly, the White Sox have gone just 1-2 in those three Lynn starts. He obviously deserves better. After tossing a complete game shutout on 4/18 vs. Kansas City (with 11 strikeouts), Lynn was a hard-luck loser to this Cleveland team a week later. He allowed just two runs and five hits (went six innings) and had 10 more strikeouts. Lynn has been out the L2 weeks (strained trapezius), but should be fine here as he has a 1.41 ERA in five career starts vs. Cleveland. The White Sox are 5-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and the Indians are not a particularly strong offensive team. Triston McKenzie has a 1.615 WHIP and no wins after three starts. 7* Chi White Sox

8* Under Kings/Lakers (10:35 ET): So playing the Kings Under the total in their last game turned out to be a horrendous mistake. They allowed the Jazz to shoot 64 percent from the floor and score 154 points, the franchise’s worst loss since 1991. Obviously, there’s going to be defensive improvement from them tonight against the Lakers. But will it be enough to allow this game to go Under the total? I think so as LA continues to struggle offensively without LeBron James. They are averaging just 104.2 points in the L5 games and Anthony Davis has been back for the last four. He’s averaged only 16.3 PPG on 39.1% shooting. 

Sacramento still doesn’t have its leading scorer, De’Aaron Fox, who is out due to COVID-19 protocol. The Kings have been held to 113 points or less in three straight games without Fox in the lineup. While the defense was being shredded Wednesday night, at the offensive end they were held to their fewest number of points in a game in almost three weeks. The Under is 10-4 in the Kings’ last 14 road games and 11-4 when they are off a SU loss. 

The Under is also 8-2 the last 10 times the Lakers have hosted the Kings. I know Sacramento is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but I just don’t see the Lakers taking advantage tonight as they have shot below 44% from the field in three of the last five games. The one positive with James out is that the Lakers remain #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Under Kings/Lakers

10* Under Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): We’ve got a battle of two excellent starting pitchers in Friday’s series opener between the Angels and Mariners. Andrew Heaney goes for the Angels and he has a 0.92 WHIP in four starts. Over his L3 starts, Heaney has been particularly dominant. He’s gone a total of 17 ⅔ innings and allowed just three runs on seven hits. He also has 25 strikeouts during that time. Here, Heaney faces a Seattle lineup that managed just one run yesterday (and won!) and has been held to three runs or fewer in four of its last five ballgames. 

Chris Flexen will start for Seattle and he too has been sharp of late. He’s allowed one or zero runs in three of his four starts this season, including just two total runs in the last two starts. Last time out, he went a season-high seven innings and allowed one run on four hits vs. the Red Sox. Combined, these two starters have allowed only two home runs all season. 

The Mariners ended a four-game losing streak yesterday and avoided a sweep at Houston with a 1-0 victory. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they’ve had fewer than 10 hits in 9 of their last 10 games and five of them they’ve finished with four or less hits. They just .191 at home. The Angels, who have topped four runs only twice in their L10 games, aren’t exactly hitting the cover off the ball either. 10* Under Angels/Mariners

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a play on the run line where I am backing the White Sox +1.5. I admit the home team is at a bit of a disadvantage here as they played a doubleheader on Thursday while Cleveland had the day off. Chicago will also have to contend with Indians’ ace Shane Bieber in this series opener. However, it’s not like the White Sox were really tested yesterday. They swept the two games with the Tigers, winning 3-1 and 11-0. To counteract Bieber, Chicago has Dallas Keuchel starting today and they are 4-1 in his five previous five starts. 

While 14-10 and in second place in the AL Central, I’d say the White Sox are off to a pretty good start. They have the best run differential in the American League now (+31) and have won six of the last seven games. That run began with an 8-5 win over Cleveland on 4/20. Four times in the last 10 days, Chicago has scored eight or more runs in a game. They didn’t need many runs yesterday after allowing just one total in the two games. Keuchel should do his job today as in addition to a 2.81 ERA & 1.125 WHIP his L3 starts, he’s 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. the Indians. 

Cleveland is bottom four in baseball in batting average, OPS and runs scored. Keuchel, who threw six shutout innings (vs. Texas) his last time out, also helped beat this Indians team back on 4/12. The Tribe will heavily lean on Bieber tonight, but he must deal with a White Sox lineup that is #1 in all of baseball in batting average and on base percentage. Even in the Indians are victorious here, it won’t be by more than one run. I love the idea of the better team getting +1.5 at home. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

8* Run Line Kansas City (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a play on the run line where I am backing the Royals +1.5. Similar to the play on the White Sox, I love the idea of getting the better team +1.5 in this matchup. The Royals aren’t at home, but they’ve been “road warriors” thus far (7-3 record away from home) and lead the AL Central with a 15-8 overall record. Minnesota, despite being off an easy 10-2 win in Cleveland on Wednesday, is off to one of its worst starts in years at 8-15. 

The Twins are just 3-7 in home games so far and being outscored by nearly a full run per game at Target Field. So the idea of them winning by multiple runs tonight seems highly unlikely. While Wednesday was actually the fourth time this season the Twins scored 10 or more runs in a game, they’ve also been held to three runs or fewer a total of 14 times. Here they face Brady Singer, who has looked sharp in his three starts so far. Singer has 2.95 ERA and 1.078 WHIP. In the last two outings, both of which were KC wins, he’s allowed just one run and five hits in 13 innings. The Royals won those games despite scoring only four total runs. 

Michael Pineda goes for the Twins and he’s off his worst outing of 2021 where he allowed five runs in a loss to Pittsburgh. The Royals just beat the Pirates 9-6 on Wednesday. Pineda is 5-6 with a 4.21 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Kansas City. The Royals are giving up only 2.6 runs per game on the road this year with their pitching holding opposing hitters to a .201 average. The bullpen ERA over the last six games is 0.48. KC has benefited from going 6-1 in one-run games so far, but a one-run loss here would be fine. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

10* Over Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): It was a rude welcome home for Memphis on Wednesday. The Grizzlies fell 130-109 to Portland in their first game back at the FedEx Forum following a 4-3 road trip. Shooting just 42% for the second consecutive game was NOT what the doctor ordered, especially on the heels of the prior six games, five of which saw the Grizz score 120 or more points. They are now 3.5 games back of Dallas for sixth place in the West and tied with the Spurs for eighth. A win here is desperately needed. 

When in need of a win, playing Orlando always seems to be a favorable matchup. The Magic have run out tricks this season as they are second from the bottom in the Eastern Conference and have the second worst point differential in all of the league. They did win, 109-104 at Cleveland on Wednesday. But the Cavs are not a good team and it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect the Magic to hold another opponent to 40.2% shooting like they did to Cleveland. The previous three games saw Orlando allow each of its opponents to shoot 54% or better and six of the last nine opponents have been above 50%. 

So I think we can definitely count on Memphis scoring a lot of points tonight. The question then is can Orlando do the same? Seeing as how the Grizzlies have allowed 120 points in B2B games as well as four of their last six, I’ll answer that question in the affirmative. The Magic are 8-1 Over their last nine games, including 4-0 the last four. Since March 22nd, only seven Grizzlies’ games have stayed Under and only one of them had a total lower than 225. 10* Over Magic/Grizzlies

10* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): The Thunder snapped a 14-game losing streak by beating Boston 119-115 on Tuesday. They were 11-point road underdogs for that contest, which they led most of the way and put to bed with a 41-point fourth quarter. Now the team can pick up its first win at home this month as they host the Pelicans tonight. They’re obviously not favored to do so, but at least the Thunder now have some confidence, which is more than I can say for New Orleans, whose playoff chances seem to be fading rapidly. 

The Pelicans have now lost six of eight after falling in Denver last night, 114-112. They did cover the spread, but that’s merely a pyrrhic victory for a team that finds itself four games off the playoff pace in the Western Conference. Really, New Orleans should not have covered last night, let alone been in position to tie the game. They were down nine points with 52.8 seconds remaining when Denver (who is without starting PG Jamal Murray) started turning the ball over. 

New Orleans has only one win by more than seven points this month and that was at home. The team’s last road win by more than seven points came all the way back on February 16th! This is somewhat unprecedented territory for them to be laying so many points away from home and the Pelicans’ ATS record as a favorite this season is only 11-21. The only other time in 2020-21 they’ve been in the second of B2B road games, they lost by 28 points. Not saying OKC wins here, but they’ll keep it close. 10* Oklahoma City

7* Manchester United (3:00 ET): This may finally be the year that a trophy is lifted by Manchester United. No, they aren’t going to win the Premier League (10 points back of Man City), but they are the favorites to win the Europa League, a competition where they’ve done quite well in the past. This year’s run, in particular, has been quite impressive. They’ve eliminated La Liga’s Real Sociedad and Granada both 4-0 on aggregate and in between got rid of Serie A side AC Milan. For this Europa League semi final matchup, it’s another Italian side, AS Roma, whose recent form couldn’t be worse coming into this one. 

Roma is winless in its last four across all competitions, including perhaps its most embarrassing loss of the Serie A season on Sunday as they fell 3-2 to a Cagliari side that may end up being relegated. The recent downturn has Roma off the pace to play European football next season. Not only have they lost two of three to bottom of the table Serie A sides, but it was a 1-1 draw against Ajax Amsterdam the last time we saw them here in the Europa League. While that was still good enough to allow Roma to progress 3-2 on aggregate, the semis will be a giant step up in class. 

Manchester United, who is looking to finish off an unbeaten April across all competitions, is working on a six-match unbeaten streak coming into this one. They are also unbeaten in their last 17 home matches in the Europa League, winning 13. While United has infamously flamed out in multiple past semifinals since the start of last year, Roma has not been to a final in European football in 30 years. Roma has just one win in England in their last 17 tries, including 10 losses. They’ve won just one of their last eight Serie A matches on the road and I don’t see them being successful today at Old Trafford. 7* Manchester United

7* NY Yankees (1:10 ET): Reports of the Yankees’ demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated as the club has now won five of seven, including each of the last two days here in Baltimore. Yesterday’s 7-0 shutout was powered by not only seven innings of three-hit ball by Domingo German, but also three home runs. The Yankees have belted six homers in the last two days on their way to outscoring the O’s 12-1. It should also be mentioned that only once in the L10 games has NY pitching given up more than four runs. 

The Yanks have won 40 of 52 from Baltimore, including 21 of the last 26 here at Camden Yards. That’s not really a surprise given where the two teams have been in the standings the last few seasons. But it is pretty one-sided nonetheless and it doesn’t figure to change here, or in the rest of 2021 for that matter. Jordan Montgomery will start this afternoon for the visitors as he goes for a second sharp outing at the O’s expense this season. Back on April 5th, he tossed six shutout innings against them (in the Bronx) and allowed just four hits. Baltimore has scored two runs or fewer in six of its last nine games.

Starting opposite Montgomery for a second time in 2021 will be Jorge Lopez. Back in that April 5th matchup, Lopez was tagged for four runs in 4 ⅔ innings. He’s allowed at least one HR in all four starts (six total) and has yet to pitch more than five innings. The Orioles are just 3-10 at home this season, including 0-2 when Lopez starts. Lopez has a 6.62 ERA in four career starts vs. the Yankees. 7* NY Yankees

8* Under Jazz/Kings (10:05 ET): These teams played earlier this month and didn’t have much trouble going Over the total in what ended up being a 128-112 Utah win. You’ll notice the total is several points LOWER for this rematch and that’s because the Jazz simply aren’t the same team right now as they were in that first meeting. PG Donovan Mitchell is out and the team is coming off B2B losses to lowly Minnesota, one at home and one on the road. The last four Jazz games have all stayed Under the total. 

Sacramento’s April began with a long losing streak as they basically played their way out of playoff contention. Things have stabilized a bit over the past six games as they’ve gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS. Still, it feels like “too little, too late” for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in over a decade and is 5.5 games out currently. The Kings are off a 113-106 win over Dallas on Tuesday, one of the better defensive efforts in some time. It was actually their fewest points allowed in a game since March 27 vs. Cleveland. 

I don’t think the Kings will match Monday’s 51.9% shooting. Not with De’Aaron Fox still sidelined. Fox is the team’s leading scorer at 25.2 points per game. Now, will Utah shoot better than it did against Minnesota on Monday? Probably. They did miss 41 three-point attempts in that game! But they will also still miss Mitchell, who led the way with 42 points in the first meeting with the Kings. The Jazz were also 30 of 35 from the FT line in that game, something that isn’t likely to happen again tonight. 8* Under Jazz/Kings

10* Boston (7:35 ET): The Celtics are not only looking to avenge Sunday’s loss in Charlotte here, but also bounce back from a very embarrassing defeat last night where they fell, at home, to Oklahoma City. The Thunder came into Tuesday on a 14-game losing streak, so the Celtics ought to be pretty perturbed over that result. I know that both Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker were out, but that’s a game Boston HAS to win in the midst of a playoff race. HC Brad Stevens is hopeful that Tatum and Robert Williams III will be back in the lineup tonight as the team seeks to end a three-game losing streak. Regardless if either returns, I look for the Celtics to snap that losing streak and exact some revenge in the process. 

Charlotte, who beat Boston 125-104 on Sunday, also played last night and lost. They went down at home to Milwaukee 114-104 as 9-point underdogs. It was a 17-point deficit at halftime. While things got closer in the 4Q, the Hornets simply didn’t have enough firepower to get over the hump. Remember that they are playing without Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball. I have been shocked that this “skeleton crew” has remained in playoff contention, although they are now a game below .500 and only one game ahead of ninth place Indiana in the East. 

I know things went poorly on Sunday, but given that the Celtics were 8-point favorites in Charlotte, it looks like we’re getting a major “discount” with the line here. The Hornets are 0-4 SU and ATS their last four visits to Boston. The Celtics have been struggling offensively the last several games, including shooting 11 of 49 from three-point range last night. You’ve got to think that percentage is set to improve here. At the same time, the Hornets aren’t going to shoot as well here compared to what we saw Sunday when they hit 50% overall, including 21 of 43 from 3-pt range. Charlotte has massively overachieved this year and I’m not a believer. 10* Boston

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Yesterday was just the second loss for Oakland in their last 16 games. But considering this team still has a negative run differential on the season, I think they’re due to start “giving some back” over the coming days/weeks. The A’s haven’t lost B2B games since an 0-6 start, but I’ll call for them to do so today as they are up against Tyler Glasnow, who has a 2.05 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Rays pitching has allowed no more than three runs in any of the last four games. 

Going into the seventh inning of yesterday’s game, Tampa Bay was 0 for its last 26 with runners in scoring position. That seems rather unfathomable. But Joey Wendle snapped that streak with a two-out single and that insurance run proved to be the difference in a 4-3 victory. I think the Rays hitters are going to turn things around today against Cole Irvin, whose two wins this year were against Baltimore and Detroit (two of the AL’s worst teams). Irvin was shaky in his first two starts of 2021, which were against Houston, as he allowed four runs both times. 

The A’s have been pretty fortunate in going 5-1 in one-run games thus far. That’s the second best record in one-run games in all of baseball (KC is 6-1). They won the opener here in Tampa 2-1 on Monday despite only three hits in the game. So the offense has produced just five runs and 11 hits in two games. That sounds ideal for Glasnow, who did allow five runs his last time out, but that was despite giving up only five hits and having 10 strikeouts. In his first four starts, Glasnow allowed just two runs in 24 ⅔ IP. He has 46 K’s in 30 ⅔ IP this season. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Athletic Bilbao (1:00 ET): Two La Liga sides desperate for a win - albeit for different reasons - clash midweek as Athletic Bilbao hosts Real Valladolid. Bilbao is fresh off a surprise 2-1 victory over table leaders Atletico Madrid. While Atletico has been in a recent slump, Bilbao gladly took the three points as it ended an ugly winless run that spanned eight straight across all competitions. Still though, Bilbao sits in 10th in the table, with a +7 YTD goal differential, and can surpass two teams with another win on Wednesday. I feel this is a fairly underrated La Liga side, one that deserves to finish higher in the table.

Meanwhile, Real Valladolid continues to feel the heat of relegation as they could only manage a 1-1 draw with Cadiz over the weekend. Their winless run has now hit six and they now sit in 18th place, which would mean they are out of the Spanish top flight for next season. However, only one point separates them from safety, so you have to figure they’ll come into today properly motivated. Problem is there’s nothing in Valladolid’s recent form to suggest they are in line to pick up a win here. They have just two road wins the entire season and only one win of any kind in their previous 15 fixtures.

Furthermore, Bilbao have been tough on their home turf this season. They are unbeaten in their last seven here and have failed to score only once. The last time Valladolid picked up an away victory over Bilbao was the 2003-04 season! While Bilbao had been winless in eight straight fixtures prior to the last time out, it is also true that they are unbeaten in the last six here in La Liga as they played to five consecutive draws before beating Atletico 2-1. They are “due” for another win as they try and get back in striking distance of Europa League qualification. They’ve also got revenge for a 2-1 loss in the reverse fixture back in November. 10* Athletic Bilbao

10* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): I was stunned with what happened to the Brewers Monday (as I’m sure they were!) as they lost 8-0 in the series opener with Miami. On the mound, the Brew Crew had Corbin Burnes, who had allowed all of one run (total!) in his first four starts. Burnes allowed just one through five innings last night, but then things fell apart in the sixth when he gave up four. His teammates look to bounce back tonight with Adrian Houser getting the start. Since starting the season 1-3, Milwaukee has not dropped B2B games and I don’t think they will here. 

Interestingly, the Brewers have yet to face a left-handed starter here in 2021. That’ll change tonight when Miami sends southpaw Daniel Castano to the bump. The last time Castano pitched, I faded him and the Marlins and that turned out to be a successful bet. Castano lost to the Giants, 3-0, as he gave up all three runs in the first inning and lasted only five. In two starts this year, both against SF, Castano has only two strikeouts and four walks. That’s not impressive at all. The Brewers’ lineup had its chances last night, but left five runners stranded and each of the first three innings ended with a double play. 

Miami hitters struck out 15 times last night, so I like Houser’s chances here. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in all four of his starts thus far, though it should be pointed out he’s yet to last more than a full five innings. The Brewers have been getting excellent starting pitching to this point, which made last night’s result all the more shocking. The Marlins were batting a collective .192 their L7 games before last night’s win. Brewers’ opponents have scored three runs or less in 14 of 22 games this season. It’s been 10 days since Miami won B2B games. 10* Milwaukee

10* Portland (7:05 ET): Portland has lost five in a row, three of them as favorites, while Indiana is on a three-game win streak. Yet it’s the Blazers who are favored here, on the road. How can that be? Well, Indiana is without multiple starters and the fact their three wins came against Oklahoma City, Detroit and Orlando (maybe the three worst teams in the league?) has to be accounted for. Portland’s last four losses have been to the Clippers, Denver and Memphis twice with three of them coming by a total of four points. I look for the Blazers to get back on track tonight with a big-time win. 

Full disclosure, I’ve openly predicted that Portland would fall out of the top six in the Western Conference and that is precisely what has happened. I can’t say I’m a big fan of a team that is 29th in defensive efficiency, but remember the Blazers were 29-18 at the start of this month. You’ve got to think Damian Lillard is going to turn things around after shooting just 34.7% his L3 games. Again, most of the Blazers’ recent losses have come in close games. Four times this month they’ve been beaten by 1 or 2 points. 

While Portland’s best player (Lillard) is set to improve, I can’t possibly see Indiana matching its 54.9% shooting from the Orlando game on Sunday. Nor are they going to hold the Blazers to 39.6% like they did to the Magic. The three-game win streak for the Pacers has come against teams that are a combined 57-127 SU this season and two of the teams they beat are currently on losing streaks of 6+ games. Indiana won’t have Domantas Sabonis for this game and we know Myles Turner is out as well. The Pacers are just 11-17 SU at home this season and 8-20 ATS. They are 0-2 SU/ATS off three straight wins. 10* Portland

10* Under Chelsea/Real Madrid (3:00 ET): It was back on January 26th that Chelsea hired Thomas Tuchel to be its new coach, replacing Frank Lampard, and save its floundering 2020-21 campaign. The Blues spent a lot of money in the offseason and floundering in the middle of the Premier League table is not where they felt they belonged. Sure enough, Tuchel has turned things around by guiding Chelsea up to 4th place in the EPL standings. A top four finish and Champions League qualification is very much in play for them at this point. Of course, there is also the matter of winning THIS year’s Champions League. 

Since Tuchel took over, Chelsea matches have become incredibly low-scoring. Of the 21 total, both domestic and European, 18 have seen two or fewer total goals scored. They have allowed multiple goals just once under Tuchel with an average of 0.7 expected goals per match. 1-0 wins have become rather commonplace and that was the final score when they beat West Ham over the weekend. That was the club’s third consecutive clean sheet (shutout) as well. Here in the Champions League, there were just three combined goals scored in the two legs of the quarter final with FC Porto. 

Semifinal opponent Real Madrid, like Chelsea, is still wiping the egg off its face over the Super League implosion. Then there was a disappointing 0-0 draw with Real Betis in La Liga play over the weekend. Embarrassment and disappointment aside, Los Blancos have now turned in four consecutive clean sheets and have never allowed more than one goal in a current 17-match unbeaten run! The thing is, three of their last four fixtures (including the second leg of the CL quarters vs. Liverpool) have been goalless draws. Goals should be especially hard to come by in this first leg of the semis and I’ll take the Under. 10* Under Chelsea/Real Madrid

8* Run Line Colorado (9:45 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rockies +1.5. The road team, off a 12-2 win over Philadelphia Sunday, won’t be lacking in motivation coming into this series at San Francisco. Not only did the Giants sweep them earlier this month, but Colorado is still looking for its first road win of the season (0-6 so far). That prior sweep did occur here in San Francisco and I even took the Giants twice. But I’ll back the Rockies in this revenge spot with the caveat that I get an additional 1.5 runs “in my back pocket.” 

Not only does Colorado have some confidence off the 12-2 win yesterday, but they’ve won four of five overall. Austin Gomber will be the starter that looks to earn the team its first road win of 2021. Gomber is off three straight quality outings, two of which were on the road. One was against the Dodgers and the other came in the prior series vs. San Francisco. Gomber actually allowed only 1 hit in 6 ⅓ innings vs. the Giants, but did walk four and ended up losing a 3-1 game. He’s had better control since and finally earned himself a win his last time out by holding Houston to just two runs on two hits in another six inning effort.

The Giants have been getting tremendous pitching this year, which is a big reason why they’ve started 14-8 and have won six of eight. Three of those six wins were shutouts. Anthony DeSclafani shut the Rockies out for six innings earlier this month and will start against them for a second time today. But he hasn’t won a decision since beating the Rockies and lasted only four innings his last time out. I realize that all the games were at Coors Field, but Colorado has scored 5+ runs in five straight games. That, along with the run line, should be enough to cash a winning ticket in this series opener. 8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5)