10* Under Orioles/Mets (7:05 ET): Based on the starting pitching matchup, things don’t exactly seem “ripe” for an Under today between the Orioles & Mets. However, we’ve already begun to see this high number trickle down a bit and with it still being above the key number of 9.0, Under is the correct call. Baltimore has won three straight and just held the Yankees to one run in each of the last two victories. The Mets have had a couple big offensive games recently, but that’s not really indicative of “where they’re at.” 

Baltimore sends John Means to the hill Tuesday. Means is having a rough season with an 0-6 team start record and 8.10 ERA. The Over is 4-1-1 in those six starts, but this will be Means second straight time facing the Mets. Last week, he allowed four runs in 5 ⅓. The Orioles would go on to lose 9-4 as Mets starter Michael Wacha allowed two runs in three innings. Wacha will again oppose Means tonight and both starters are hoping for better results. I think we’ll see that as Wacha has only pitched once at home while Means has only pitched once on the road. Different environments should lead to better results for both starters. 

Both games last week in Baltimore went Over. The teams split the pair with the Mets winning 9-4 with this same pitching matchup and the Orioles winning 9-5. Look for Citi Field to keep things lower scoring tonight as the Mets may not have much left in the tank following last night’s rally from a six-run deficit, which still saw them lose in 10 innings. The 14 runs they put on the board Saturday was a total anomaly and it should be noted the Under is 18-8-5 the Mets’ L31 home games w/ a total of 9.0 to 10.5. 10* Under Orioles/Mets

10* Oakland (9:10 ET): These teams last met on 8/29 when the Astros swept a doubleheader. Since that twinbill was played, not much has gone right - for either AL West club. Houston has lost five of seven and just got swept over the weekend in Anaheim. Oakland has played one series (due to COVID-19 concerns) and dropped two of three here at home to San Diego. Somebody has to get back on track Monday and I believe that will be the A’s. 

Before that aforementioned doubleheader on 8/29, Oakland swept Houston in a three-game series played at this ballpark. (The doubleheader was played in Houston). The Astros scored just five runs in those three losses here in Oakland, but right now it’s pitching that’s the greater concern as they just surrendered 6+ runs in all four losses to the Angels over the weekend. All four games saw the staff fail to hold leads. 

After endorsing Houston on Sunday (unsuccessful obviously), it may seem odd that I’m now fading them, but it is really “all about the opponent.” Oakland is superior in the pitching department, having surrendered 52 fewer runs this season. Now Monday starter Frankie Montas has struggled of late, but he also previously held Houston scoreless for seven innings of two-hit ball back on 8.8. The only time Cristian Javier (Monday’s starter for the Astros) faced Oakland was 8.9 and he allowed 3 HR’s and lasted only 3 IP. There are injury concerns on both sides, but more for the Astros. 10* Oakland

8* Under Clippers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): My view is that after all those Overs we saw in Denver games here in the bubble, it was only a matter of time before the Under made its comeback. The Over hit in 13 of the Nuggets’ first 14 games post-restart, but since then it’s been three straight Unders, including both games of this series. The Clippers are a stout defensive team and coming off an embarrassing defeat in Game 2, they should be ready to “tighten the screws” again here for Game 3. Take the Under. 

Denver has not scored more than 110 points in any of its last three games. They were held below 100 twice. Game 7 against Utah (80-78 win) was a dramatic departure from the scoring we’d seen in most Nuggets games this postseason. Then they were held to just 97 points in Game 1 by the Clippers. While the Nuggets rose back up to 100 in the Gm 2 upset, that’s a little misleading considering they scored 44 in the 1Q and shot 15 of 40 from three-point range. Clearly, a similar fast start is probably NOT going to happen tonight.

The Clippers should bounce back a bit offensively from the poor Game 2 effort, but certainly aren’t going to get back to the heights of Game 1 where they made 57.1% of all FG attempts and were 10 of 24 from behind the three-point arc. Kawhi Leonard really struggled with the Denver defense in Game 2, scoring just 13 points on 4 of 17 shooting. It was just the third time in his L32 playoff games that Leonard was held under 20 points. The Under is 39-18 the L57 meetings between these teams. 8* Under Clippers/Nuggets

10* Navy (8:00 ET): 2019 saw Navy make the jump from 3-10 to 11-2 straight up. Not only that, but the Midshipmen were also one of the best bets in the country at 10-3 ATS. Last season’s bounce back in Annapolis was largely inevitable as the 3-10 SU record in 2018 was the worst in any season under HC Ken Niaumatalolo. Regression this year is every bit as inevitable, but look for the Middies to still win a bunch of games. This game w/ BYU is a lot better matchup than the originally scheduled opener, which was Notre Dame in Ireland. 

BYU was supposed to open its season against “Holy War” rival Utah. But with the Pac 12 cancelling its season (for now), the Cougars head across the country instead. BYU had its own “down” year in 2018, winning just 4 games. But they’ve since gone 7-6 SU two straight seasons. Three of the wins last year were by a field goal. A major issue that they are dealing with right now is the injury to TE Matt Bushman. His season ending Achilles injury means BYU will be without last year’s four top receivers. 

Another issue I see for BYU in this game is that their defense was very susceptible to the run a year ago. They gave up 168 YPG over land, the most ever under HC Sitake. As we all know, few teams in the country are as adept as the Naval Academy is when it comes to running the football. They put up 361 YPG rushing LY at 6.1 YPC. This line has “jumped the fence” (meaning BYU now favored), but wherever it ends up, the fact BYU is 1-4 SU/ATS its L5 games where the line is a FG or less and Navy is 4-1 SU/ATS will apply. Navy won all six home games last season, doing so by an average of more than 20 PPG. My own power ratings suggest they should be about a 7-pt favorite here and that’s w/o factoring in much of a home field advantage. 10* Navy

10* Over Celtics/Raptors (6:35 ET): While Toronto has fought back to even this series up at two games apiece, we’ve yet to see an Over (Under is 4-0). But that’s caused a somewhat significant drop in the oddsmakers’ O/U line for Game 5 Monday. While Game 4 may have been the lowest scoring game of the series to date (just 193 total pts), there were some real bad shooting numbers that we should see improve tonight. Look for the Celtics & Raptors to “finally” go Over here in Game 5. 

When it comes to winning and losing in this series, the key for Boston has been three-point shooting. In Games 1 & 2 (both of which they won), they shot 43.6% and 39.5% from behind the arc. In Games 3 & 4 (both of which they lost), they were 31.0% and 20.0%. While we may not see them again rise to the “highs” of the first two games, the Celtics’ long-range shooting should improve tonight compared to the last two games. The Under is 9-1 their L10 games, but for the season Celtics games are averaging 119.1 PPG. 

Toronto did not shoot well from three-point range in any of the first three games of the series. But they were up at 38.6% (a little above their season average) in the Game 4 victory. So far, the Raptors have had only one game where they shot above 40% overall and you have to figure that’s going to change soon. Even with the Under being 12-4 in all of their games inside the bubble, this is the lowest O/U for any Raptors’ game yet. Same for the Celtics, who are 12-4 Over following a SU loss. 10* Over Celtics/Raptors

10* Over Rockets/Lakers (8:35 ET): I had the Under in both Games 2 and 7 of the Rockets-Thunder series, winning both times, and the Under is now 5-2 in Houston’s L7 games including 4-0 the L4. Despite that success taking Unders, I believe that tonight’s Game 2 with the Lakers is the time to go with the Over. No way the Lakers shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 1. In fact, in two games vs. Houston inside the bubble, LA has made only 13 of its 57 three-point attempts. That number HAS to improve. 

It was a 63-55 game at the half Friday night. The halftime score was pretty similar (65-56 Houston) when the teams met back on August 6th. Yet, despite the relatively high-scoring 1st halves, neither game went Over the number. The Lakers were held to just 42 second-half points in Game 1 and really seemed to “throw the towel in” late as it was an 18-point fourth quarter. Note the O/U line for Game 2 is several points lower than it was for Game 1, creating some real value in going the other direction (i.e. Over). 

The Lakers also lost Game 1 in Round 1 vs. Portland. They would go on to win the next four games including two 130+ point efforts. Houston has been better defensively of late, but I’m still a bit skeptical of them on that end of the floor. But something else I’ve noticed is the Rockets haven’t scored more than 114 points in any of the last seven games. That seems likely to change as they are averaging 117.1 PPG for the season. 10* Over Rockets/Lakers

10* Under Stars/Golden Knights (8:05 ET): There are still only 29 teams in NHL history to rally back and win a best of 7 series in which it trailed 3-1. This despite THREE teams forcing Game 7’s in the last round after falling behind 3-1. Two of the teams that were able to stave off infamy meet here in the Western Conference Finals. There was a big difference though in the last round as Vegas was a big favorite in every game whereas Dallas was an underdog in all 7 games. That would certainly seem to indicate the Golden Knights have the advantage in this series, but I am more interested in the total here in Game 1. 

Coming off a wild series with Colorado where six of the seven games went Over, Dallas could very well see its scoring start to subside here against the top seed in the Western Conference. The Stars were the lowest scoring team in the regular season among the eight conference semifinalists, but have shockingly scored 42 goals in the L10 games. But now they are facing a team that posted THREE shutouts in its last series and is obviously MUCH better between the pipes thanks to the combo of Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury. 

While posting three shutouts of their own against Vancouver, the Golden Knights got blanked themselves in Game 6 of that series and have scored a total of only four goals in their last three games. They’ll be missing Ryan Reaves (suspension) for his hit in Game 7 Friday. Vegas actually went 98 straight shots w/o a goal against Vancouver in Games 6 & 7. They trailed Dallas 3-1 in the third period when they met in the round robin earlier in the bubble. Game 1 will be low-scoring. 10* Under Stars/Golden Knights

10* Houston (4:10 ET): The Astros were swept in a doubleheader Saturday, losing both games by a single run (10-9 and 7-6). They also lost 6-5 to the Angels on Friday. The Angels have now won four in a row overall. Despite that and the “perception” the Astros are having a “disappointing” season, I find it quite logical to come back with the favorite here on Sunday. Three consecutive one-run victories over the Halos seems a bit fortunate for a team that’s given up the third most runs in all of MLB. 

Houston had won five of six coming into this series. They now have the most one-run losses of any team (10) and their last four losses have all been by one run. Friday’s opener went extra innings while you should remember that both games yday went only seven. In Friday’s game, they went 3 for 24 w/ RISP and left 12 men on base. Yesterday, they had a 9-7 lead going into the final half-inning in Game 1. They blew three two-run leads in that one. The nightcap saw them again give up three runs in the final frame. They easily could have won all three of these games against the Angels, who remain MLB’s biggest money-burners at -13.7 units for the season.

Framber Valdez makes his seventh start of the year here for the Astros. Thus far, he’s 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.128 WHIP. The numbers are even better when he pitches on the road. Valdez faced the Angels on August 24th and finished w/ 11 Ks in 7 IP. Houston won 11-4. He followed that performance up with a quality outing Tuesday vs. Texas. Valdez has allowed 3 ER or less in 5 of 6 starts. Perhaps most importantly, Mike Trout is 0 for 7 lifetime against him w/ three strikeouts. Jaime Barria will be making just his 2nd start of 2020 for the Angels today and only lasted 4 ⅓ his first time out. Even w/o Altuve, Houston gets its revenge. 10* Houston

6* Over Sakai/Overeem (11:55 ET): Last week, I took the Over in a heavyweight main event and it’s the same call here at UFC Fight Night 176. While scheduled for five rounds, Alistair Overeem (46-18) and Augusto Sakai (15-1-1) only needs to make it deep into the second for this bet to hit. I think it will. 

Overeem has certainly “been around the block” once or twice, as you can tell from 64 career fights. A former champion other promotions, Overeem is currently ranked #5 in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division as he’s won three of his previous four fights, including a TKO of Walt Harris back in May. That TKO happened at the 3:00 mark of Round 2, which is where we need to get to in this fight. While he does have a couple of fairly recent first round finishes on his resume, before the Harris win we saw Overeem go all the way to the fifth round in an unsuccessful bout with Jairzinho Rozenstruik. 

Sakai is a lot more disciplined than Harris (Overeem’s last opponent), which is one of the reasons I’m thinking Over. Unlike many other heavyweights, Sakai is not a fighter that looks to end things with “one punch,” although 11 of his 15 wins have come via stoppage. But two of his last three wins have been by decision and what’s relevant about that is he’s only fought five times for the UFC. Overeem will be one of Sakai’s biggest challenges to date and thus I’m expecting a cautious approach to this fight, at least early. 6* Over Sakai/Overeem

10* Denver (9:05 ET): Classic “zig zag theory” in this one as the Nuggets are coming off a blowout loss in Game 1, but should certainly play a lot better here in Game 2. Basically one big quarter (the 2nd) was the difference Thursday night as the Clippers outscored Denver 38-20 in that 12 minute stretch. The other three quarters, LA had only a five-point edge, but it still ended up being 120-97 in the end. I don’t see the Clips shooting 57.1% from the field again nor do I see Denver only making 25% of their threes. Take the points.

The fact the Nuggets were coming off a seven-game series w/ Utah didn’t really help their cause heading into Game 1. They had just one day off in between series. The Clippers had three. Jamal Murray, who had that memorable 142 point three-game stretch against Utah (Gms 4-6), was held to 12 points in Game 1 on just 5 of 15 shooting. Perhaps that was fatigue. Whatever the reason, the good news for Game 2 is that Denver is a perfect 6-0 ATS the L2 years when trailing in a playoff series.

My own personal power rating said that the Nuggets were a bit overvalued in the series with the Jazz. It’s somewhat ironic then that those same numbers say they are being undervalued in this series. I’ve got the line at around -4/-4.5. That’s a pretty big difference. I abstained from taking the points in Game 1 due to the difference in rest (cashed the Under instead), but will “swoop in” here and do so. 10* Denver

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Yesterday’s 5-3 loss dropped the Mets to 0-4 vs. the Phillies this season. They were previously swept in a three-game series down in Philly, three weeks ago. That 0-4 head to head record is essentially the sole reason for the gap that currently exists (4.5 games) between the teams in the NL East standing. Philadelphia is 19-15 and in second place while the Mets are 17-22 and in fourth. I think the Mets will get their revenge Saturday and finally beat the Phillies. 

Philadelphia is playing its best baseball of the season right now. They’ve won 5 straight and 9 of 10, greatly improving their postseason odds along the way. It’s now almost a 94% chance that they finish among the top eight in the National League. Still, it’s hard for me to believe in a team that’s been nothing more than average on the road. Heading into yday, the Phillies were allowing 5.7 runs per game away from home and the bullpen remains a big question mark with its 6.54 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. I don’t “love” this team by any means. 

The Mets’ current situation is a bit more precarious, but they very much are alive when it comes to finishing in the top eight. They’d won two straight prior to yday’s loss, scoring nine runs in both victories. They need a good start here from Seth Lugo, who has 12 strikeouts and allowed just 1 run in 6+ IP so far as a starter. The Phillies’ Spencer Howard is the lone member of the rotation NOT to have a 6+ inning outing thus far and he’s got a really high WHIP (1.86) while also allowing 5 HRs.  10* NY Mets

10* Over Raptors/Celtics (6:30 ET): Toronto was less than a second away from being down 0-3 in this best of seven series, but OG Anunoby’s GW three changed all that as the Raptors took Game 3 by a score of 104-103. Still, it’s hard to shake the fact that the defending NBA Champs have had their share of trouble beating the Celtics this season. All three losses in the bubble have been at the hands of Boston and for the year, the head to head record is 2-5 SU, 1-5-1 ATS. So while we had the Raptors in Game 3 (pushed), you can understand why I’d be a bit “gun-shy” about coming back with them again here. 

Boston’s head to head success w/ Toronto isn’t the only notable trend when examining the season series. The last five meetings between the two teams have all stayed Under the total. None of the three games in this series have really been close with just 206, 201 and 207 total pts scored. But for Game 4, the O/U is the lowest it’s been all series and a far cry from the 222.5 pt number we saw when the teams met on August 7th.

Eight of the Celtics’ last nine games overall have gone Under the total. But I smell a change being in store for Saturday. Boston has shot 47.0% in two of the three games so far and was up above 40% from three-point range in the first two games. The Raptors finally had a decent shooting night in Game 3 (46.6%), but their ability to score was somewhat undone by taking only 16 free throws making just NINE. Toronto scored 150 in its close out game vs. Brooklyn last round, so they are more than capable of big offensive explosions. The Over is 12-3 the L15 times Boston has been off a SU loss. 10* Over Raptors/Celtics

*10* Under SMU/Texas State (4:30 ET): When these teams met last year in Dallas, the game just snuck Over the 63-point total as SMU won 47-17 and easily covered the 17-point spread. That was the third game of the season and SMU had a HUGE edge in total yards (639-242), so it was total domination. The second half of this “home and home” series takes place in San Marcos and is SMU’s first ever visit here. While it’s likely to result in another lopsided win for the Mustangs, I feel this game could be a lot lower-scoring.

The 47-17 win by SMU last year was really emblematic of how the two teams’ respective seasons went. SMU would go on to win 10 games and make the Boca Raton Bowl (where they were thrashed 52-28 by Florida Atlantic in a de facto road game). Texas State was just 3-9 SU in 2019, their fifth consecutive season with three or fewer wins. There are some key metrics that indicate the Bobcats will be improved this year, but they’re still not a great team by any means. They averaged only 18.4 PPG last season, the fourth straight year below 20 PPG.

SMU’s points per game average jumped all the way to 41.8 in 2019. I expect that number will come down even with QB Shane Buechele returning. The top two running backs from LY both graduated. I do not see the same regression taking hold on the defensive side of the ball, however. Quietly, the Mustangs led the entire country in sacks in 2019! Obviously Texas State isn’t going to score many points here and I think SMU won’t match LY’s number (47) against the Bobcats. Take the Under. 10* Under SMU/Texas State

10* Oakland (9:40 ET): San Diego had been one of the hotter teams in all of MLB recently (still 12-4 L16). But they did get blanked last night in Los Angeles (2-0 by the Angels) and tonight they’re in for another rude awakening at the hands of the rested A’s. Oakland has played just one of the last eight days due to a positive COVID-19 test within their own clubhouse (pitcher Daniel Mengden). Not that the first place A’s even really need this situational advantage. They’re 22-12 and have outscored opponents by 36 runs. 

The last time the A’s took the field was 8/29 when they were swept in a doubleheader by the Astros. That, along with all the time off, should have them really motivated when they take the field for tonight’s series opener. They are 13-4 at home thus far with tonight’s starter Jesus Luzardo being on the mound for three of those wins. In addition to the 3-0 TSR, Luzardo has a 1.06 ERA as well as a 1.00 WHIP in his three home starts. This season has seen the A’s allow just 3.0 rpg at home, which is third best in all of baseball.

San Diego has managed to go 9-3 vs. the American League so far, but one of those losses was last night and it came at the hands of the LAST place team in the AL West. While sweeping the Astros was impressive, a 6-3 record against the bottom three of the AL West (Rangers, M’s, Angels) doesn’t impress much. Now the Padres face the best the division has to offer and in the past they’ve really struggled against Oakland, going 10-23 the L33 meetings. Friday starter Zach Davies cannot possibly continue to get the kind of run support he’s seen his last three starts (37 runs!). 10* Oakland

10* Under Brewers/Indians (7:10 ET): The Indians have been an Under machine this season with 67% of their games (24-12-1) landing that way. Division rival Minnesota has actually “surpassed” them for the MLB lead in Unders, but you can’t discount the fact the Tribe are allowing a MLB-low 2.8 runs per game as they allowed just three runs TOTAL in their last series. Of course, the team’s record would be even better were it not for an offense that’s really struggled at times. They’ve scored three runs or less in 18 of 37 games.

Milwaukee has gone Over in three straight as well as six of its last seven. But those games were against very different opposition, Pittsburgh and Detroit, neither of whom has a good pitching staff. Cleveland has allowed three runs or less 27 times so far, which is just phenomenal, and tonight they send Carlos Carrasco to the mound. While four of the five Overs Cleveland has had at home have come with Carrasco pitching, he just threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball at St. Louis last weekend. He’ll pitch fine tonight.

Both teams had Thursday off, so there’s no advantage there. If the Brew Crew are to have a “fighting chance” tonight, it will likely be because of starter Corbin Burnes, who has a 2.29 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in four starts. Burnes threw six shutout innings himself last time out, albeit vs. the Pirates, and had 10 strikeouts. But I still see Milwaukee struggling at the plate here as they are 0-2 all-time vs. Carrasco and are hitting just .214 as a team this season. 10* Under Brewers/Indians

10* Milwaukee (6:35 ET): In both Eastern Conference semifinal series, the top seed fell into an 0-2 hole. Yesterday we saw the Raptors pick up a much needed win over the Celtics, nailing a three at the buzzer to substantially aid their chances of survival. The top seeded Bucks hope for less “nail-biting” on Friday when they face a “must win” against Miami, who is undefeated (6-0 SU/ATS) since the playoffs began. I have to admit that I am stunned how these first two games have unfolded. Milwaukee has to win tonight. Lay the points. 

It certainly seemed as if we were headed for overtime in Game 2 Weds nights. But the Bucks foolishly “returned the favor” in fouling a jump-shooter in the closing seconds. In their instance, they fouled with no time left on the clock, allowing Jimmy Butler to sink the GW free throws. Though Milwaukee has been able to score 60+ pts in the 1H of both games, they have struggled in crunch time and only shot 43.5% overall in Game 2 (7 of 25 from 3-pt range). Another issue has been the defense allowing Miami to hit 29 of 76 three-point attempts. The Bucks were #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. 

None of the Bucks’ gaudy regular season statistics will mean much if they don’t win tonight. They are now basically hoping for a reverse of what happened to them in LY’s Eastern Conference Final against Toronto when a 2-0 lead turned into a series loss. The Bucks have lost three in a row only one time all season and that was in a four-day stretch out on the West Coast. Here in the bubble, they are 3 for 3 - SU and ATS - when off B2B losses. Those wins have all come by double digits (avg of 14 PPG). 10* Milwaukee

10* Colorado (Time TBD): The start time of this game is dependent on whether or not Vancouver can also force a Game 7. If the Canucks win Thursday, then they and Vegas will also play a Game 7 Friday. Colorado has forced this Game 7 situation in dramatic fashion, coming back from a 3-1 series deficit. Of course, the Avalanche have also been favored in every game in this series. That they were down 3-1 in the first place seemed a bit head-scratching. I’ve taken them before in this series, feel strongly that they are the better team here and will thus play Game 7 accordingly.

I had the Under in Game 6, which the Avs won 4-1. It was Dallas’ lowest-scoring game of the series. Meanwhile, the Avs have now scored 4+ goals in four straight games as well as in six of the last eight. They’ve outshot the Stars for the series. Dallas’ scoring was always due to come down. Consider they have more 5+ goal games here in the bubble than they did the entire regular season prior to the shutdown! Going into Game 6, the Stars’ shooting percentage for this series was nearly double their regular season average. 

Colorado has a slew of injuries, the latest coming last game to Gabe Landeskog. They’re also down to their third goaltender, Michael Hutchinson. But Hutchinson seems to be the solution rather than the problem. He is only the 7th goaltender in playoff history to win his first two starts when facing elimination. Meanwhile, Dallas has nothing but uncertainty between the pipes. Ben Bishop was infamously chased in Game 5 and Anton Khudobin has an .876 save percentage his L4 starts. Their top line has just 1 pt the L2 games. 10* Colorado

10* Under Nuggets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Nuggets have gone Over in 13 of 15 games here in the bubble while the Clippers are 9-3 Over their last 12, including a 150+ pt effort against Dallas in their first round series. Those who made the mistake of continuously thinking Denver was “due” for an Under (I’ve been guilty!) got a “mea culpa” of sorts in Game 7 of the Utah series Tuesday. That series deciding game was an 80-78 final and obviously stayed WAY Under. It may not be that easy tonight, but I look for Game 1 of this series to stay Under as well.

Jamal Murray’s history-making scoring stretch (142 pts in three games) came to a bit of a screeching halt in that Game 7 Tuesday. Murray scored just 17 points in that game, shot 33% overall from the floor and missed five of six 3-pt attempts. Concerning is the fact he took a knee to the thigh and appeared to be hampered afterwards. Another issue facing Murray is that Patrick Beverley seems likely to return for the Clippers tonight. Beverley, who is one of the best individual defenders in the league, missed the entirety of the Dallas series. HC Doc Rivers has all but guaranteed he will play tonight. 

Denver is a good offensive team as they rank 8th in efficiency. However, the Clippers just got done facing the #1 team in offensive efficiency and largely kept them in check. When these teams met last month, it was 124-111 Clippers. But they shot 54% from the floor, something that I don’t see happening here. This was among the highest opening O/U lines for any Denver game in the bubble. Remember they were held under 90 pts twice by Utah. At the same time, they’ve given up no more than 107 any of the L3 games. 10* Under Nuggets/Clippers

10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss (9:00 ET): Perhaps the strangest College Football season EVER (at least in my lifetime) officially gets underway Thursday with the first matchup of FBS teams. Though the schools are separated by just 100 miles, this will actually be the first ever meeting between South Alabama and Southern Miss. The former wasn’t very good last year (finished 2-10 SU) nor were they very good the year before (3-9 SU) for HC Steve Campbell, who enters his third season at the helm. Southern Miss is coming off a 7-win season, which ended with a 30-13 loss to Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl.

South Alabama’s offense was pretty pitiful for most of last season. At one point, there was a six-game stretch (all losses) where they failed to score more than 17 points. All six of those games also happened to stay Under the total. But over the final four games, something flipped as Desmond Trotter took over their starting reigns at QB. With Trotter under center, the Over was 3-1 and the Jaguars scored 27+ pts three different times. Their season even ended with a huge outright win over Arkansas State, 34-30, as 10.5-point underdogs. I expect the USA offense to “take a leap” in 2020 and it helps that Trotter will have his top two WR back. 

Southern Miss averaged 26.6 points per game a year ago, which doesn’t sound all that bad, but consider that the Golden Eagles also averaged a very healthy 6.1 yards per play. Turnovers at inopportune times as well as red zone inefficiencies definitely hurt them. Those things tend to “even out” from year to year, so I’m expecting USM’s PPG average to also go up in 2020. QB Jack Abraham led all of Conference USA w/ 15 completions of 40+ yards on his way to a near 3500 yard season last year. He’s also completed 70% of his passes in the L2 seasons. South Alabama has given up 30+ PPG both seasons under Campbell and has to replace virtually all of LY’s defensive front. 10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss

10* Toronto (6:35 ET): The Eastern Conference side of the bracket has been turned “upside down” with the top two seeds (Milwaukee, Toronto) both down 0-2 in their respective series. In the case of the Raptors, they have yet to solve the “Boston mystery” in that they are 0-3 vs. the Celtics in the bubble and 11-0 SU against everyone else. Game 2 saw the defending NBA Champs blow a double-digit lead in the 2H and lose 102-99. But I’m not prepared to “count them out” yet and will take them here in this “must-win” situation. 

Boston has won 10 of its last 11 including all six playoff games where they have held the opposition to just 99.2 PPG. They swept the Sixers in Round 1 (three of four games decided by single digits) and have subsequently held the Raptors under 100 pts in both games of this series. Throw in a 122-100 win back on August 7th and it really seems as if the Celtics have Toronto’s number. But let’s not forget how the Raptors were down 0-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals against Milwaukee last year. They would of course go on to win the NBA Finals. Such a run may not happen again in 2020, but I just can’t see them losing three straight. 

The Raptors have lost three in a row only two times this season. It makes little sense that they could look so good against “everyone else” while struggling against one particular opponent. So far, they’re shooting below 40% for the series and are 21 of 80 from three-point range. Look for improved shooting tonight in Game 3. Boston was just 42.1% from the floor in Game 2, but made 15 of its 36 three-point attempts (39.5%) with Marcus Smart in particular going “off.” Three-point shooting has been the key for the Celtics in both games, but they can’t live off that every night. 10* Toronto

8* San Diego (9:40 ET): This is a matchup between pitting one of the league’s more pleasant surprises (Padres) against perhaps its biggest disappointment. San Diego is doing quite well for itself. They are 22-15 with 97.5% playoff odds. They’ve won 11 of the last 14 and just reaffirmed their contending status by being “buyers” at the trade deadline. As for the Angels, they are down more net units (-17.5) than any other team in baseball and in last place in the AL West (12-24). 

So much focus here will be on Fernando Tatis vs. Mike Trout, but the fact of the matter is the Padres are better everywhere else. Especially when it comes down to starting pitching. Dinelson Lamet gets the baseball on Wednesday for the Padres and he has a 2.35 ERA and 0.939 WHIP through seven starts. His TSR is 5-2 and he got plenty of help from the offense in a 10-3 win over Seattle his last time out. Lamet has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. 

The Angels have two “blowout” wins - 12-5 over Houston and 16-3 over Seattle - over the L7 days. But other than that, they are just 3-13 over the previous 18 games. It would seem difficult to trust Julio Teheran in this spot. While he’s yet to factor into a single decision this year, his ERA (9.94) and WHIP (1.736) speak for themselves. San Diego is the league’s highest scoring team in 2020 as they and the Dodgers are way out in front of the rest in runs scored. They are 8-2 vs. the American League so far, averaging 7.2 runs in those games. 8* San Diego

10* Under Thunder/Rockets (9:05 ET): When the Rockets were up 2-0 in this series, a possible Game 7 was probably the LAST thing on their minds. The return of a healthy Russell Westbrook seemed to put the nail even further in the Thunder’s coffin, but here we are Wednesday with a Game 7. I took OKC plus the points in Game 6 and they delivered the outright win, 104-100, a tremendous bounce back from what happened in Game 5 (when I was on the Rockets).

Houston probably has a legit claim to being the better team here. All three of their wins in the series have been by double digits (combined 62 points). Oklahoma City’s three wins have been by a total of 19 points with two coming by 4 or less and the other in overtime. But, even off a loss, I’m pivoting to the total for this Game 7 matchup. We know that Game 7’s tend to be low-scoring. Well, the last two games of this series have both gone Under. This one should as well. 

The most points scored by the Thunder in regulation in any game this series was 117 in Game 4. Other than that, they have not topped 108 in regulation. Four of the six games have seen them held to 104 pts or less in regulation. I had the Under in Game 2, which was a win. The L2 games have seen OKC shoot 31.5% and 42.7% from the field. Neither team has shot better than 48.8% in any game this series. Houston has gone Under six straight times when tied in a playoff series. 10* Under Thunder/Rockets

10* Under Avalanche/Stars (8:05 ET): So the Avs aren’t dead yet as a historic scoring stretch in Game 5 kept them alive to fight another day. It was 5-0 by the end of the 1st period Monday with four of those goals scored on Ben Bishop, who got the surprise start for the Stars. Five different players scored and four of the goals came within 2:36 of each other. That was the second fastest four-goal flurry by one team in NHL Playoff history. The final score ended up being 6-3. 

Both teams made surprise changes in goal for Game 5. Colorado started Michael Hutchinson in place of Pavel Francouz, who had struggled in the series. Hutchinson made 31 saves and almost certainly will be starting Game 6. Remember what I’ve been saying about Dallas all along. Their stunning scoring surge will almost certainly subside. They have as many 5+ goal games here in the bubble as they did the entire regular season. They’re shooting 14.0% in the series, nearly double the season average (8.8%) when they were the lowest scoring of the eight conference semifinalists.

Whether Dallas goes with Bishop or Anton Khudobin, they won’t be hit like they were in Game 5.The Stars are 14-8 Under this season after giving up 4+ goals the previous game and 12-6 Under following a loss by two or more goals. While every game in this series has gone Over, the stakes are now higher and I expect a “tighter” game. We’re due for an Under. 10* Under Avalanche/Stars

10* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): It has been an incredibly frustrating (and disappointing) season thus far in Cincinnati where the Reds are just 15-21 and one of the bigger money burners in either league (tied for 28th in net units). Last night may have (hopefully?) been the nadir as they lost 16-2 at home to St. Louis. But coming off that embarrassing loss, I suspect they’ll be motivated Wednesday. I’ve actually had some good early season luck taking the Reds and they’ll get my endorsement here. 

That yday’s rout came with Sonny Gray on the mound had to be terribly disheartening for Cincinnati. St. Louis scored in seven of the first eight innings, including a six-run first, on their way to a season-high in both runs and hits (23). But by no means was yday indicative of the true measure of these two NL Central clubs. Working against the Cardinals here is that this will be their 23rd game in the last 20 days, a stretch which has seen them have zero days off. Meanwhile, the Reds are 5-1 the L6 times they dropped the first two games of a series.

I like the pitching matchup for Cincy tonight. The Cards likely “used up all their hitting” last night and Tyler Mahle certainly has the capability to do what Gray couldn’t, that being shut St. Louis down. Mahle has a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 in three home starts this year. He also posted a season-high 11 K’s his last time out. St. Louis counters with Johan Oviedo, who has gotten very little run support in his two outings. The Redbirds have scored just two runs total for him and as a result his TSR is 0-2. 10* Cincinnati

10* Milwaukee (6:35 ET): I’ve apparently misread the Heat as they are very much for real this postseason. A first round sweep of the Pacers and a Game 1 upset of top seed Milwaukee has them a perfect 5-0 ATS. I did not think Miami was anything special as a 5-seed in this tournament. They did have a better YTD point differential than the Pacers, but not by much. The team also was a lot better at home than on the road prior to lockdown, so their success in the bubble (neutral site) is a bit surprising. The Heat’s overall won-loss record is also propped up by an extremely fortunate 8-1 mark in OT games this year. No other team had more than five overtime wins and it was easily the league’s best win % in OT. 

The Bucks were the overwhelming best team in the league prior to the shutdown. They had the best record, point differential and net efficiency by a pretty wide margin. That they lost Game 1 shouldn’t set off too many alarm bells. The same thing happened last round vs. Orlando and they stormed back to take the next four games, all by double digits. Another thing Milwaukee has going for it is a 36-15 ATS mark the L3 seasons when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Meanwhile, Miami is just 1-7 ATS this season off a SU win as an underdog. 

Game 1 saw the Bucks shoot better than the Heat and make four more three-pointers. But a big difference was foul shooting as Miami made 25 of its 27 attempts while Milwaukee made only 14 of its 26 (Giannis Antetokounmpo was the biggest offender, going 4 of 12). The Heat also made more 2-pt FG’s due to second chance opportunities. Antetokounmpo should have a bounce back game here, like he did in Game 2 vs. Orlando when he went 28-20. His teammates should help deliver a big bounce back win. 10* Milwaukee

8* Utah (8:00 ET): I came into this series believing Utah to be the better team and see no reason why I should come off that point for this deciding Game 7. Normally, handicapping a Game 7 in the NBA Playoff simply comes down to the question of “who’s at home?” But the 2020 season is anything but normal. Also not normal would be the Jazz blowing a 3-1 series lead. They have never lost a series that they led 3-1. Conversely, Denver has never won a series in which it trailed 3-1. History will NOT be made Tuesday night. 

Game 6 marked the first time in the series that the Jazz did NOT have the lead entering the 4Q. They have outscored Denver in the series by an average of 4.3 PPG. They were up 15 in the third quarter of Game 5, meaning the Nuggets were perilously close to having their season end. Something else that’s interesting is how the individual games have been priced as the series has progressed. Denver was favored in Games 1 & 2 while Utah was favored in the last four. Now the market has moved back to the Nuggets favor.

While the Jazz have been held to a series low 107 points in B2B games, Donovan Mitchell continues to do his part and will almost certainly break LeBron James’ record for most points in a playoff series. Denver’s Jamal Murray could do the same, but it’s the Nuggets’ defense that I trust less in this situation. They were just 17th in defensive efficiency coming into the series (Utah was 12th) and only 7th in the Western Conference in net efficiency rating. I thought they were the “phoniest” of the higher seeds and must play accordingly. 8* Utah

8* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): Truthfully, I am not a big fan of either of these teams. But Detroit is clearly playing “over its head” right now as a 5-game win streak has them at a surprising .500 for the year. Over the weekend, they swept the Twins. The entirety of the 5-game win streak has been at home, which is key, because on the road the Tigers are still giving up an average of 6.0 runs per game. Milwaukee is 3-0 this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175, which includes yday’s 6-5 win over the Pirates. 

The Brew Crew went into the weekend thinking revenge as they’d been recently swept by the lowly Pirates. Facing them again, this time at home, they took two of three including the aforementioned win yday. There’s been an overnight pitching change as they’ll go with Josh Lindblom rather than Adrian Houser. This will be Lindblom’s seventh start and while he’s yet to record a quality outing, the pitching change has little bearing on this play. This is very much a fade on the Tigers. 

With top hitter Christian Yelich hitting a very disappointing .197, Milwaukee is last in MLB in team batting average. But tonight looks like a matchup where they might break out at the plate as they face Michael Fulmer, who has an 8.79 ERA and 1.953 WHIP in five starts. While Fulmer has not factored into a decision yet in 2020, somehow the Tigers have gone 3-2 in those games. Fulmer has yet to go more than three innings in any start. It’s time to “sell high” on the team that had baseball’s worst record a year ago. 8* Milwaukee

9* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Things have taken a drastic turn here for the top-seeded Flyers who are down 3-1 in the series and now underdogs in Game 5. Another loss would obviously mean they’re done and what a shock that would be considering how hot they were prior to facing the Islanders. After sweeping the round robin games (to earn the #1 seed in the East), they’d won 12 of 13 going back to February and had the league’s best overall record since mid-January. They eliminated Montreal in six games in Round 1.

But the Islanders are now the East’s “new” hot team. They are 10-3 here in the bubble as they needed just four games to oust Florida in the qualification series, five to get rid of Washington in the last round and now stand one win away from the franchise’s 1st Conference Finals since 1993. What’s amazing is that the Isles had lost their last seven games when the season was halted back in March. They had a -1 goal differential for the season.

This will be the first time in the bubble that the Flyers are coming off B2B losses and the first time it’s happened since a four-game losing streak in early January. Note the consecutive losses came on B2B days following some time off for the protests. Now they are rested and fighting for their playoff lives. They are 40-18 L58 times playing on 1 days rest. Don’t be surprised if the Islanders tighten up a bit. 9* Philadelphia

10* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees came up short against the Rays yet again last night (lost 5-3). They are now 1-7 head to head with Tampa Bay this season. That’s why they are 4.5 games back. But Tuesday should see the Yanks reverse this disturbing trend. Even with the lineup currently depleted, this time is simply too talented to keep losing to the same side, over and over. In particular, timely hitting HAS to improve. They are just 5 for 51 w/ RISP vs. TB this season, including 1 for 25 at home! 

Masahiro Tanaka is 10-5 lifetime vs. Tampa Bay with a 3.33 ERA (20 starts). While he’s yet to go longer than 5 innings in any start this year, Tanaka should come up big in this spot. He threw five shutout innings against the Rays back on 8.7, allowing just one hit. New York lost that game 1-0, but it certainly wasn’t Tanaka’s fault. Tanaka again threw five scoreless innings in his last start, which was at Atlanta. 

There’s no denying that the Rays are red hot right now. They’re on a six-game win streak. But opener Trevor Richards has a poor WHIP and is probably what the doctor ordered for this struggling Yankees’ lineup. This is all about revenge and the fact we’re due to see a course correction in the head to head record between the teams. 10* NY Yankees

analysis soon

10* Toronto (5:35 ET): The Raptors have only lost twice in the bubble, but both times were to the Celtics and each has come in rather convincing fashion. Back in the seeding games, they were beaten 122-100. Game 1 on Sunday was every bit as bad (lost 112-94) as the defending NBA Champs have not led at any point in the two games vs. Boston and trailed by double digits at the half both times. I’m counting on a big bounce back in Game 2 though. Toronto is 13-5 SU off a loss this year, winning by nearly 7.0 PPG. 

In Game 1, the Raptors shot only 36.9% from the field and were 10 of 40 from three-point range. That’s not going to get it done. It was their worst offensive showing in the bubble, at least in terms of points scored, with the first game against Boston marking the previous low. I’m not concerned though as this is a resilient bunch that has done its own damage defensively since the restart. There have been only four games where they’ve allowed more than 110 points. Again, two were vs. Boston, but another was a game where they scored 150 points. 

There is no reason to believe the Celtics have some sort of “mastery” over the Raptors. Six players were in double figures in the Game 1 victory, but that’s as likely to be repeated as the unusually poor shooting we saw from Toronto. Remember that Gordon Hayward is still out. Earlier, I mentioned how good the Raptors have been off a SU loss this year. Well, if that loss was by double digits, they have gone 5-1 ATS the next game. I can’t see them losing two straight. 10* Toronto

10* Under Stars/Avalanche (9:45 ET): Needless to say, the way this series is going has left me perplexed. I viewed Colorado as the vastly superior side coming in. Not even injuries to goalie Philipp Grubauer and Erik Johnson changed my view. Especially since it was backup Pavel Francouz that led the way in a 4-0 shutout of Dallas back in the round robin. But that result and performance by Francouz appear to have been an anomaly. The Avs are down 3-1 to the Stars in this series (facing elimination tonight) and just 2-7 against them this season. 

Every game in this series has gone Over with the fewest number of total goals scored in any game being 7. Last night saw the Stars jump out to an early 3-0 lead before the Avalanche even got a single shot on goal (despite two power play opportunities). From there things tightened up as the Avs were able to get within one goal two different times, though the last was with just four seconds remaining and it ended up being a 5-4 loss.

At this point, it’s obvious that Francouz is a problem for the Avalanche. But there is no other solution other than to stick with him. Tonight marks the first back to back of the series and I wonder if that will have a more negative effect on the skaters as opposed to the two goaltenders. Dallas can’t keep scoring at the rate they have been (they had the fewest number of regular season goals among the eight conference semifinalists) and we’re long overdue for an Under. This is the 1st time in the bubble either team has seen a total of 6.0. 10* Under Stars/Avalanche

8* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): The Thunder took a major “L” on Saturday, losing Game 5 by 34 points (114-80), which has them on the verge of elimination. The big story heading into the last game was the return of Russell Westbrook for Houston. Westbrook played 23 minutes and had a 7-6-7 statline, which really isn’t that impressive, but keep in mind it was his 1st game since the restart. The other story was what a HORRIBLE shooting night it turned into for Oklahoma City. They missed 39 of 46 three-pointers and finished w/ a 31.5 FG% for the game. Those numbers obviously WILL improve here in Game 6. 

Helping OKC improve offensively will be a full game of Dennis Schroeder. Schroeder was leading the team with 19 points, 18 of those coming in the second quarter, when he got ejected for a skirmish with Houston’s P.J. Tucker. While the Thunder have now suffered three double-digit losses in the series, a number of key trends indicate they’ll bounce back Monday. Chief among them is a 10-2 SU/8-3-1 ATS record when coming off a double digit loss.

The Thunder were the best ATS team in the league when the season was stopped in March. They are 27-14 ATS as underdogs this season as well as a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS when coming off a game in which they were held to 85 points or less. On the other hand, the 80 points allowed by Houston in Game 5 established a new-season low. When you think back to the fact OKC was FAVORED to win Game 1 of this series, this number looks like a great value. Classic zig-zag theory. Take the points. 8* Oklahoma City

10* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): In the AL East, the Yankees are 3.5 games out of first place, due in no small part to a 1-6 head to head record with the first place Rays. A recent seven-game losing streak did them no favors. But it was a successful weekend for the team wearing pinstripes as they won Saturday, then swept a doubleheader on Sunday. After being swept here at Yankee Stadium two weeks ago, tonight begins their chance at revenge with Tampa Bay and I like the Yanks to get the cash in this series opener.

The Rays have started 23-11, which includes a perfect 6-0 record when they had the previous day off. That situation does not exist here as they were in Miami Sunday, where they won 12-7. That gave them a series sweep and was their fifth straight win overall. They are 19-4 L23 games. Hot as they are, the sweep that occurred here at Yankee Stadium two weeks ago was the Rays’ first since 2014. While they held NY to just 10 runs in the three games, the Yankees are averaging 5.9 rpg at home this season, tied for 2nd most in MLB. 

Tampa Bay’s offense has been getting it done on the road all season, including 4 HR’s yday. But tonight they face Gerritt Cole, who is 20-1 his L21 decisions. Cole has not factored into the decision any of the six times he’s faced TB in his career, two of those starts coming this year, but has a 3.61 ERA against them. Overall, Cole has a 5-2 TSR this year with a 0.95 WHIP. He’ll be opposed by Tyler Glasnow, who has a 4-2 TSR, but a 5.14 ERA and 1.357 WHIP. Those numbers get higher on the road. This’ll be one of the best spots to take the Yankees all season. 10* NY Yankees

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies lost Sunday night, 12-10 to the Braves, but I was rather impressed with the way they fought back from an early 10-0 hole. The Braves scored all 10 of those runs in the 2nd inning, effectively ending the game. But Philadelphia got back within one run heading into the 9th. While ultimately unsuccessful, that’s a rally the likes of which you’re not going to see very often. Going into Sunday, Philly had won five in a row. Three of those wins were against the first place Braves. The other two were at the expense of the team they’ll face Monday, that being Washington. 

The defending World Series Champs are not having a good start to 2020 as they are 12-19 and in last place in the NL East. Over the weekend, they dropped two games to the lowly Red Sox, a team with the second worst run differential in all of MLB. It was the Red Sox first series win in three weeks. The Nationals’ scoring average on the road this season remains very high (6.4 per game going into yday), but we should start to see that number come down. With Sunday’s loss, the Nats are a shocking 4-17 this season in game vs. RH starters. 

A righty will start tonight for the Phillies. It’ll be Spencer Howard, who is off his best outing to date, 11 days ago in Toronto. Howard will face Erick Fedde, who will be making his 2nd straight start against the Phillies. The last one didn’t go too well as Fedde allowed four runs in five innings and the Nats lost 8-3. Fedde has allowed a HR in all three of his 2020 starts. While so much of the country saw Philly fall into a 10-0 hole last night (game was on ESPN) and thus won’t want to take them here, I know they are a perfect 7-0 this season when priced as a home favorite of -125 to -175. 8* Philadelphia

10* Utah (8:35 ET): The Jazz missed out on their first opportunity to eliminate the Nuggets, but don’t look for them to miss a second time. They were up by as many as 15 points in the third quarter of Game 5 and it very much looked like they’d squash Denver for good. Something of real note from this series is that Utah has led going into the fourth quarter in all five games! The Nuggets have been extremely fortunate in head to head play w/ the Jazz so far this season. All four wins have been by six points or less, two of them in overtime. That good fortune (and their season) ends tonight. Lay the points.

Meanwhile, two of Utah’s wins in the series have been by 19 and 37 points. Though they started the series as a slight underdog (were getting points in Games 1 & 2), I had them ranked as the better team. They’ve been favored in each of the last three games now and while they’re just 1-2 ATS, I feel they have very much looked like the better team. Remember that the Nuggets posted only the 7th best net efficiency rating in the West during the regular season. A first round elimination is something that would not shock me in the least. 

Jamal Murray has carried Denver in this series with 154 points in five games. But what’s crazy is that Utah’s Donovan Mitchell has been even better with 188 points, just 53 shy of the NBA’s all-time record for most points scored by an individual player (LeBron James) in an entire series. The teams are a combined 0-5 ATS this season when playing on three or more days rest, so no edge there. The edge is that Utah has simply been the better team over the course of the season and has scored 38 more points than Denver in this series. 10* Utah

10* Colorado (6:05 ET): I was absolutely floored that the Avalanche were down 0-2 in this series. Not only did I consider them overwhelming favorites to advance past the Stars, I also had them on my short list to win the Stanley Cup! Thankfully, they bounced back with a commanding 6-4 win in Game 3. They're now one win away from evening this series back up at 2-2 and I believe that's what's going to happen Sunday evening. 

Also shocking was HOW Dallas has won the first two games. They scored five goals in both. Over the L6 games, they have have scored 5+ goals FOUR times. For a frame of reference, this team scored 5+ goals only three times in its 69 regular season games! Of the eight conference semifinalists, no team had scored fewer goals this year. This six-game run (28 goals scored) has come on the heels of them being 12 seconds away from being down 3-1 in the series with a bad Calgary team. 

I think the Stars run of scoring more than expected is due to come to an end tonight. In just the last five games, they have scored on 15.3% of all shot attempts, which is beyond unsustainable. The Avs are without Philipp Grubauer, but I continue to point to the fact that backup Pavel Francouz shut the Stars out when these teams met in the round robin. This is the cheapest that the Avs have been on the money line for any game in this series. I'll grab them. 10* Colorado

8* Dallas (3:35 ET): The Mavericks are facing elimination this afternoon, yet are the biggest underdogs they’ve been for any game in the series. That’s due in no small part to two things. One is they were absolutely hammered in Game 5, 154-111. The other is injuries. They are without Kristaps Porzingis while Luka Doncic is dealing with an ankle injury. Still, I disagree with the oddsmakers inflating this number so much. In many ways, this is similar to yday’s game between the Lakers and Blazers (who were w/o Damian Lillard) where the underdog ended up covering. Take the points. 

As for what happened in the last game, do not expect a repeat of that to take place today. The Clippers shot a ridiculous 63.1% for the game and were an even more ridiculous 22 of 35 from three-point range. After shooting just 29 percent in the first four games, Paul George stepped up with 35 points. There’s some obvious regression set to take place here for LA and I’m not sure the extra days off help them. They are only 1-3 ATS playing w/ 3+ days rest this season. 

The Mavs didn’t have Porzingis either of the last two games. While Game 5 was a disaster, they won Game 4. In fact, no team has been able to win B2B games in this series as the famed zig zag theory is a perfect 4-0 ATS. Doncic didn’t shoot well in the last game, but still had 22 points. Dallas has the most efficient offense in the league and will not go quietly. They are so much better than what they showed in the last game. 8* Dallas

10* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): The Cubs and Reds split a doubleheader on Saturday. The Cubs won Game 1 3-0 while the Reds took Game 2 6-5. Cincy very nearly blew that second game as they led 4-1 before giving away the lead. Thankfully, they were able to win with a pair of runs in the final at-bat. Now they go for their first series win at home all season, if you can believe that. This is a team that entered the 2020 season with high hopes (certainly were expected to make playoffs in an 8-team format). Take them Sunday. 

Chicago leads the NL Central with a 19-14 record, but they’re a little “fraudulent” when you consider their run differential is only +4. That’s still the division’s best (every other team has been outscored), but consider every other first place team in the league has a run differential of at least +21. So this division is very much still up for grabs with less than half the regular season to go. That’s good news for the Reds, who clearly have yet to hit their stride. A plus for the home team is that Joey Votto, who had been mired in an 0 for 18 slump, went 3 for 6 in yesterday’s doubleheader. He’s 6 for 15 lifetime against Tyler Chatwood, who starts for the Cubs on Sunday. 

Chatwood has lasted less than four innings combined his last two starts, both of which came on the road. He gave up eight runs and 11 hits to Kansas City (lasted only 2 ⅓) and then walked more batters (5) than he retired (4) his last time out, which was against Detroit. Those are two bad teams to struggle against. The Reds go with Luis Castillo, who somehow has a 1-5 TSR despite only one bad start. He’s yet to factor into a single decision, but has a 1.50 ERA at home. Time for a win! 10* Cincinnati

8* Over Rakic/Smith (11:15 ET): This is the main event for UFC Fight Night 175. It’s a light heavyweight bout. Despite being the main event, it’s only scheduled for three rounds as it got top billing on short notice and thus it wasn’t fair to ask the fighters to go five when they’d only been training for three. With this Over bet, we don’t need them to go the distance though, only to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2. I think that’s going to happen. 

Rakic is the lower ranked fighter (8th) within the LHW Division, but is a prohibitive favorite to defeat Smith (5th). Oddsmakers see his youth as an advantage and he should have the striking advantage. Really, he’s better in every aspect than Smith, so throw those rankings out the window. However, it should be noted Rakic hasn’t faced the same level of competition as has Smith. The crafty veteran should not be overlooked here and he can make a fight of this, or at least extend the bout.

Both fighters are off losses. Smith fell to Glover Teixeira via 5th round TKO back in May. It was his fourth consecutive fight that made it to at least the third round. He doesn’t have many decisions on his career resume, but we don’t need to get that far here to cash. Rakic was on a 12-fight win streak when he lost to Volkan Oezdemir back in December in a split decision. It was the third time in his last five fights it was left up to the judge’s. Despite both fighters having reputations as finishers, recent history suggests this one is going longer than expected. 8* Over Rakic/Smith

8* Vegas (9:45 ET): I’m 2 for 2 in this series. I had the Under in Game 1 (5-0 Vegas win) and then took Vancouver +1.5 in Game 2 (they won “outright” 5-2).  That Vegas was able to blank the Canucks in Game 1 didn’t surprise me. I wrote the following in my analysis before the series opener … “One thing about Vancouver that sticks out to me is the fact they have scored on 12.1% of their shot attempts so far. That seems unsustainable.” Sure enough, I was correct (at least for Game 1)..

Though I took Vancouver on the puck line for Game 2 and gave them a very good shot at winning, you can imagine my surprise when they blitzed the Golden Knights for five goals of their own. It was 2-0 just 11 minutes in and from there the Canucks never let up, particularly dominating face-offs (which they are known to do). They also blocked 40 shots, just one shy of the NHL playoff record for a game ending in regulation.

Vegas had a 40-27 edge in shots on goal in Game 2, so they shouldn’t hang their heads too much. Getting back to all the blocked shots, the Golden Knights had an incredible 50-11 edge in shot attempts in the second period alone! It was the first time in 12 meetings they lost to the Canucks in regulation (9-1-2 all-time head to head record). The Knights have also yet to drop B2B games this postseason and have scored 4+ goals in 7 of their 10 games. They are a big favorite here for a reason and won’t drop two in a row. 8* Vegas

10* Over Dodgers/Rangers (7:05 ET): One of the more surprising results of this MLB season took place last night as lowly Texas beat the Dodgers 6-2. This weekend series is a matchup of the teams with the best (+82) and second worst (-50) run differentials in the sport. (You should know who is who!). Making last night’s result all the more shocking is that LA came into Friday having won 13 of its last 15 games. They swept a doubleheader Thursday, winning both of those games in shutout fashion. 

But the Rangers were able to score six runs against the Dodgers last night, winning as +200 underdogs on the money line. Shockingly, I project them to do well at the plate again tonight. That’s because they are facing the struggling Ross Stripling, who has a 7.71 ERA and 2.057 WHIP his L3 starts. In those three starts, Stripling has given up seven home runs and allowed 6 or more runs twice. Overall, he’s allowed 15 runs in just 11 ⅔ IP. The Over has hit the L2 times he’s pitched, also thanks in large part to the Dodgers scoring 11 runs of their own in both games.

The Dodgers lead all of baseball in runs scored. The only team within 20 runs of them is the division rival Padres. Their games average 8.8 runs while Texas is at 9.0. So I love the O/U line being under the key number of 9.0 here. Lance Lynn is starting for the Rangers and while he’s been “lights out” in 2020 (2 ER or less in all 7 starts), he has yet to face a lineup like the Dodgers have. Lynn also has given up three home runs in his past two starts. All we need is a 5-4 game to hit the Over tonight and a result such as that seems quite likely. The Over is 6-2 for Texas after they allow 2 runs or less the previous game. 10* Over Dodgers/Rangers

10* Emily Whitmire (7:40 ET): This is a three-round fight in the women’s strawweight division (115 lbs). It was originally scheduled to take place at UFC 248, but Whitmire missed weight (by 1.5 lbs) then had to be hospitalized for a bad weight cut. I think she’s got a lot to prove Saturday night as it will be her first fight in over a year, plus she’s coming off a loss. Her opponent has not tasted much success of late and I believe will be “slim pickings” in this one. 

Polyana Viana is 10-4 in her career with all 10 victories coming via stoppage. But she enters this fight having lost three in a row, leaving her UFC status very much in jeopardy. Viana was 9-1 when she came to the UFC, but has just won once fighting for the promotion and that was back in February of 2018. She’s since lost twice by decision and then her last time out (also just over a year ago) saw her submitted for the first time ever - in just over a minute. I don’t think there’s much reason to believe in her in this spot. Her record was built up against inferior competition. 

As I mentioned earlier, Whitmire is also off a loss and it too was via submission (at the hands of Amanda Ribas). While just 4-3 in her pro career, “Spitfire” has never dropped B2B fights, which differentiates here from Viana. She’s also 2-2 in UFC. Fighting at strawweight is much better suited to Whitmire than it is to Viana (both have also fought at flyweight). Look for Whitmire to get her hand raised in this one. 10* Emily Whitmire

10* Houston (6:35 ET): After largely dominating the first two games of this series, the Rockets now find themselves tied 2-2 with Thunder as this is now a best of three. But let’s look at the series. Houston’s two wins were by 15 and 13, games in which they largely led from start to finish. Oklahoma City has won in overtime (Game 3) and then a three-point game (Game 4) where they rallied back from a 15-point deficit. Now Russell Westbrook is set to return for Game 5 and in my mind that clearly makes the Rockets the better side. Lay the points.

This series has been kind to us as I had the Under in Game 2 (cashed by double digits) and then OKC in Game 3 (outright winner). With the Thunder off an upset win in overtime, I thought it best to “lay off” Game 4 as I wasn’t all that confident the Rockets would bounce back. For a while I was kicking myself, especially when they led 93-80 in the third quarter. But the Thunder then stormed back, securing their 17th win of the season when trailing entering the 4th quarter (league best).

Oklahoma City has largely overachieved this season. Just consider the comeback stat I just mentioned and also the fact they had the best ATS record in the league when the season was shut down. But I don’t see them shooting 61% again in the 1st quarter nor do I see a +30 edge in bench points, both of which we saw in Game 4. A third straight upset seems unlikely tonight as the Rockets own a pretty considerable +25 scoring differential in regulation for the series. All reports are saying that Westbrook has looked great ("explosive" is the exact word I heard). Obviously, his return has factored into this line. But if I was willing to take Houston at the previous price w/o Westbrook, I'm certainly willing to back them w/ him, only laying a few more points. The couple day break has benefited the Rockets.  10* Houston

6* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): The Brewers got swept last weekend at PNC Park. That should never happen. The Pirates have the fewest number of wins in all of baseball (9) and that number goes down to 6 if you take away what happened last weekend against the Brew Crew. Only two teams - the Red Sox and Rangers - have worse run differentials than the Pirates. Milwaukee (-34) isn’t that great in that department either. However, their playoff odds remain above 60% while Pittsburgh’s are basically nil (0.5%). That should tell you something right there. The Brewers are better and should exact some revenge Friday night. 

Both teams played doubleheaders on Thursday. But that’s where the similarities end. Pittsburgh swept their doubleheader in St. Louis, winning 4-3 and 2-0, while Milwaukee got swept by Cincinnati (lost 6-1 and 6-0). It was Pittsburgh’s first shutout of the season while just the second time Milwaukee had been shut out. Note off their previous shutout loss (Opening Day), they bounced back the next game to win 8-3. They are 13-8 after being shutout the L3 years. Pittsburgh is just 5-19 this season when you take away yday’s results and last weekend’s series. 

The Pirates are also 8-26 the L34 times as a road underdog of +125 to +175 on the money line. That includes an 0 for 6 this season. Derek Holland got his first win of 2020 at the Brewers’ expense last weekend, but the Pirates starter for tonight had been awful before that, most notably in a start vs. Detroit where he allowed FIVE home runs. Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes had seven strikeouts when he faced the Pirates last weekend, but those were not enough in a game the Brewers lost 5-4. Burnes has yet to record a decision despite a 3.29 ERA. That changes w/ a win tonight. 6* Milwaukee

8* Run Line Kansas City (8:10 ET): Please note that this is run line play only where I’m taking the Royals +1.5. Kansas City has some revenge here as early in the season they were swept by the White Sox. They also have what looks to be a decided edge on the mound with Danny Duffy going against Reynaldo Lopez. Since the White Sox have been surging of late (won 9 of last 10 games), I’m a little “gun-shy” when it comes to picking the Royals to win “outright” today. But they won’t do any worse than a one-run loss. 

Duffy now has a 3-3 TSR in 2020 with all of those wins coming in the L3 starts. Incredibly, all three wins came against division-leading Minnesota where Duffy was a ML dog of +135, +175 and +135! In those L3 starts, Duffy has a 3.86 ERA and 1.071 WHIP, but his numbers weren’t much different in his first three starts, all of which the Royals lost. Interesting to note the Royals failed to score in two of those three losses while the other was by one run. The Royals’ last game was also a one-run loss (6-5 to St. Louis) as the bullpen blew a 9th inning lead for the first time in 10 opportunities. 

Lopez has only started two games for the White Sox and he hasn’t lasted long in either. The first one saw him get only two outs as he allowed four runs. The second was a little better as he only allowed two runs on one hit (not a typo!), but he only lasted 3 ⅓. I think this is a really cheap price to get the additional +1.5 with the underdog in a revenge spot. 8* Kansas City +1.5

10* Colorado (10:35 ET): I am absolutely floored that the Avalanche are down 0-2 in this series. Not only did I consider them overwhelming favorites to advance past the Stars, I also had them on my short list to win the Stanley Cup.  Hoisting the Cup is now the furthest thing from the players’ minds as all they are looking for is one win right now. I believe they’ll get that win tonight. I realize I said the same thing prior to both Games 1 & 2, but the “third time will be the charm.” 

Also shocking is HOW Dallas has won the first two games. They’ve scored five goals in both. The Stars have won five in a row, including FOUR 5+ goal games. For a frame of reference, this team scored 5+ goals only three times in its 69 regular season games. Of the eight conference semifinalists, no team had scored fewer goals this year. This five-game run (24 goals scored) has been on the heels of them being 12 seconds away from being down 3-1 in the series with a bad Calgary team. Like I said earlier, I am absolutely floored here. 

Colorado continues to play without Philipp Grubauer and Erik Johnson. I don’t think it’s fair to pin the flood of Dallas goals on Grubauer’s absence. Backup Pavel Francouz is capable of beating the Stars as he shut them out, 4-0, in the round robin game. The Avs were up 2-0 in Game 2 when all of sudden things started to go very wrong with the Stars getting TWO goals 43 seconds apart (on a 5 on 3) and then there was a controversial goal allowed near the end of the period. The Avs outshot the Stars 40-27 in Game 2 and I still think they are the better team here. 10* Colorado

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D’backs were set to be a play for us on Monday, but starter Merrill Kelly was a late scratch, rendering it “no action.” In hindsight, that may have been a lucky break as they lost 3-2. Last night was another one-run loss (5-4) as Arizona has now dropped seven in a row to fall into last place in the NL West. But with playoff odds still hovering above 50% percent, you have to think a turnaround is imminent. I think that turnaround occurs tonight.

It’s a pretty ugly starting pitching matchup with the Rockies going with Jon Gray and the D’backs going with Robbie Ray. Gray has a 9.64 ERA and 1.786 WHIP his L3 starts while Ray has a 7.24 ERA and 2.048 WHIP his L3. There is definitely potential for tonight to turn into a “slugfest,” but note Colorado is only averaging 3.6 rpg outside of Coors Field. They’ve scored a total of 15 runs in the L5 games. They’d lost seven in a row coming into this series. 

Arizona has scored just 12 runs during the entirety of their seven-game losing streak. They desperately need to get something going at the plate. Last night, they hit two home runs and left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. Gray’s two road starts have gone poorly as he has more walks than strikeouts in just 8 ⅓ IP. He also allowed eight runs when he faced Arizona at home on 8.10. Ray allowed six runs in that same game, but Arizona still won 12-8. Look for Ray to get the better of Gray yet again as Colorado has lost five straight times after scoring 5+ runs their previous game. 10* Arizona

8* PUCK LINE Vancouver (9:45 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am backing the Canucks +1.5. Vancouver lost Game 1, 5-0, so everyone is discounting them heading into Game 2. As much as Vegas has “looked the part” of a top seed so far this postseason, they have had their fair share of close calls with half their wins coming by one goal. They also had to come back from multi-goal deficits to defeat both St. Louis and Dallas in the round robin format. Chicago was clearly overmatched in the last round.

I had the Under in Game 1 as I (correctly) predicted that the Canucks would soon see a downturn in scoring. Sure enough, they were shut out. They came into this series having scored on 12.1% of their shot attempts so far, which is unsustainable. Still I expect them to play a lot better in Game 2. If you recall, the Canucks were blanked in Game 1 of the qualification series against Minnesota. They bounced back with a 4-3 win in Game 2 and went on to win seven of their next nine games with one of the two losses coming by one goal. 

As noted in the Game 1 analysis, Vancouver can be stingy too. I can’t see Vegas continuing to average almost 4.0 goals per game here in the bubble as they’re facing Jacob Markstrom, who held St. Louis scoreless for 80+ minutes across the final two games of that series. Not since the first two games (both of which they trailed in) has Vegas won B2B games by more than one goal. 8* Vancouver +1.5

10* Under Orioles/Rays (6:40 ET): Tampa Bay is out for revenge in this series as they were shockingly swept up in Baltimore earlier this month. The Orioles are a lot more competitive this year as they are 14-14 and a MLB-best +8.9 units. Still, TB is likely to gain some measure of revenge this week considering they are 19-8 excluding that first series with Baltimore and in first place in the AL East. This series is also at Tropicana Field. But the odds are too rich for my blood here as thus I’ll be playing the Under instead. 

None of the three games in Baltimore had more than nine total runs scored. Both teams come in averaging 5.0 rpg but I don’t think that’s sustainable for either club. While Rays’ road games are averaging 11.0 total runs, home games are averaging just 8.2. The thought is that with them so heavily favored tonight, they’ll likely enter the ninth with the lead and hopefully we can avoid playing the bottom half altogether. Sometimes avoiding those final three outs can be the difference between a game going Over or Under.

Tyler Glasnow starts here for the Rays. He has not been great thus far, but he is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in four career starts vs. Baltimore. The O’s go with Tommy Milone, who is off a quality start against Toronto. When Milone faced the Rays earlier this season, he held them to one run in five innings. He’s also thrown six scoreless innings against Washington. 10* Under Orioles/Rays

10* Under Jazz/Nuggets (6:35 ET): By now, everyone is well aware that the Nuggets have been an Over machine here in the bubble. All but one of their games in Orlando (that being Game 3 of this series) have gone Over and many of them have gone way Over. Take Sunday for example, when they lost Game 4 by a score of 129-127. That put them down 3-1 in this series and now they are facing elimination Tuesday. With the season hanging in the balance, I do expect this to be a much better defensive effort than usual. Take the Under in what is the highest O/U line of the series to date. 

Denver has not only lost three straight to Utah, but also six of its last seven. This decline doesn’t shock me as I thought the Nuggets were overrated as a 3-seed being that they had only the 7th best net efficiency rating in the regular season among Western Conference teams. They actually started out as a favorite in this series, but things changed dramatically when they lost Game 2 by a score of 124-105, an “upset” I called (for the Jazz). The Nuggets’ only win of this series was a come from behind effort in Game 1 that went to overtime. 

Each team had a 50+ point scorer in Game 4, Jamal Murray (50) for Denver and Donovan Mitchell (51) for Utah. That’s pretty remarkable. Even more remarkable is that it was Mitchell’s second 50+ point game of the series (had 57 in Game 1)! While all signs point to the Jazz advancing tonight, there’s no way they are going to shoot as well as they did Sunday night when they sank 14 of 29 three-pointers and 57.5% of their shots overall. The Nuggets scored only 87 points in Game 3. 10* Under Jazz/Nuggets

10* Colorado (9:45 ET): I was absolutely shocked at the result in Game 1 of this series. Not only because the heavily favored Avalanche lost, but also due to the fact they gave up five goals. Dallas is not known as any kind of offensive juggernaut. In fact, of the eight remaining teams, they scored the fewest number of regular season goals. However, all of a sudden, they have scored 5+ goals in four of their last six games. I don’t see that continuing though and the Avs (the much better team here) will come through with a big ‘W’ in Game 2.

Coming into the playoffs, Colorado was a team I’d earmarked for success due to the fact they led all Western Conference teams with a +46 goal differential when the season was paused back in March. They’d lost just one time in regulation (Game 3 to Arizona) here in the bubble before losing Saturday. They bounced back from that previous regulation defeat with back to back 7-1 wins. You may recall that in the round robin format, I took the Avs when they played Dallas and that was a 4-0 win.

It’s very surprising to me that 4-0 win in the round robin is Colorado’s only win in five tries vs. Dallas this season. The Avs - by the numbers - are the much better side in this series. Coming into the series, their 3.88 goals per game average and their 1.63 gpg allowed average were both league bests since the restart. Goalie Philipp Grubauer was sporting a .953 save percentage. That he’s injured doesn’t matter as it was Pavel Francouz that shut the Stars out in the round robin. The Stars got to play a weak Calgary team in the last round and I remain unsold. This is a big play for me. 10* Colorado

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): Colorado got off to a surprising start, but that’s gone sideways in a hurry thanks to back to back series against Houston and the Dodgers. They’ve lost seven in a row, not to mention 10 of their last 11, after taking an 11-3 “L” in LA on Sunday. But the Rockies should expect no sympathy here from the D’backs, who were on the receiving end of a surprising sweep by the Giants over the weekend. These teams met at Coors Field earlier in the year and Arizona won 2 of 3. I like them here.

Arizona will enter this series on a 5-game losing streak, so something is going to have to give. What’s weird about the D’backs recent slide is that it was immediately preceded by a 6-game win streak that included multiple wins over the A’s. Hoping to lead a turnaround tonight is starter Merrill Kelly, who has pitched well this season. Kelly has a 2.58 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in five starts. The last one was definitely the worst, but before that it had been four quality outings.

Kelly will also need the Arizona offense to pick up the pace as it has scored just six runs total during the five-game losing streak. Here they’ll be facing a starter in Ryan Castellani who just gave up five runs his last time out. Colorado came into yesterday’s game averaging just 3.6 runs per game while batting under .200 on the road. Those numbers both went down. This is the D’backs chance to breakthrough. 10* Arizona

10* Indiana (6:35 ET): I’m going to the well one more (final?) time with the Pacers, who are down 0-3 in this series, which is a hole no team in NBA history has ever come back from. Furthermore, they are 0-3 ATS against the Heat with losses coming by 12, 9 and 9 points. I’m a little perplexed here as my numbers clearly state these teams are about even, but Miami has obviously looked better through the first three games. Still this is the biggest number Indiana has gotten all series and I’m taking it.

Boston and Toronto have already swept their respective first round series and with Milwaukee advancing at the expense of Orlando considered a formality, the entire Eastern Conference side of the bracket is looking like a bit of a “wash.” But note I did take Philadelphia (facing elimination) plus the points on Sunday and they covered the spread, despite their season still ending. I expect the same level of desperation here from the Pacers, who obviously don’t want their season to end like this.

Miami enjoyed a massive advantage at the free throw line in Game 3, attempting 52 tries (made 43) while Indiana only took 28 (and made 21). That’s more than the difference in the game right there and I expect the discrepancy to be rectified here in Game 4 after Nate McMillan’s postgame comments. T.J. Warren, who was one of the top players in the seeding games (averaged more than 30 PPG) has been held to only 19 PPG in this series and I expect more from him Monday night as well. Prior to Game 2, Indiana had been 6-0 ATS off its L6 SU losses. Miami is still only 8-20 ATS off an ATS win. 10* Indiana

8* Orlando (1:35 ET): Since upsetting the Bucks in Game 1, the Magic have lost by 15 and 14 pts respectively the last two games. Both times they were blitzed early only to “rally” late to make things interesting from a pointspread perspective. I think we all expect Milwaukee to move on when this series is said and done, but in Game 4 look for Orlando to keep things a bit more interesting. Take the points. 

Orlando entered this series undermanned with no Aaron Gordon or Michael Carter-Williams. Still that didn’t prevent them from pulling the outright upset in Game 1. Since then, it’s been a combination of bad offense and bad defense. Game 2 saw the Magic make just 34.8% of their FG attempts including only 7 of 33 from three-point range. Game 3, they shot much better from behind the arc (19 of 40), but that hardly mattered as they watched the Bucks make 56.5% of their FG attempts on their way to building a 30+ lead in the 2H.

Despite being overmatched these last two games, the Magic still have yet to lose by more than 15 pts in the series. I expect them to be a lot better defensively in this game as this was one of the top five scoring defenses during the regular season. The Bucks will probably enter overconfident. Before Game 3, they had been 0-6 ATS their L6 times off a SU win. That includes 0-3 here in the bubble. 8* Orlando

10* Under Canucks/Golden Knights (10:35 ET): Game 1 of this best of seven goes down Sunday with the top seeded Golden Knights taking on the fourth seeded Canucks. Vancouver started out as a 10-seed in this bubble, but has worked its way up by upsetting Minnesota and St. Louis. Even though they just eliminated last year’s Stanley Cup Champions, this series will be a far taller climb for the Canucks as Vegas is rolling right now with seven wins in their eight games since the restart.

One thing about Vancouver that sticks out to me is the fact they have scored on 12.1% of their shot attempts so far. That seems unsustainable. Vegas is doing a tremendous job at limiting the number of shots their opponents get, allowing only 25.2 per game here in the bubble. I don’t think Vancouver can expect to score as many goals in this series compared to the previous two.

The Canucks can play some defense though. For more than 80 minutes across Games 5 & 6, they held the Blues w/o a goal as goalie Jacob Markstrom made 45 saves. The Golden Knights have scored 4+ goals in all but two of their games, a pace they simply cannot continue. 10* Under Canucks/Golden Knights

10* Under Phillies/Braves (7:08 ET): Both games in this series have gone Over and Atlanta has gone Over in four straight heading into Sunday night. After crushing the Phillies 11-2 in the series opener, it was a 6-5 win for the Braves last night as they rallied late against what could be generously called an “ineffective” Phillies bullpen. All six runs were scored in the last three innings with the final one coming in walk-off fashion. I look for a slightly lower-scoring game tonight as you should play the Under. 

Two of Atlanta’s runs last night were scored off an error and that’s what began their rally. The Phillies' bullpen has been truly awful in 2020 but those two runs weren’t their fault. I look for Zach Eflin to put them in a good position tonight despite his less than stellar numbers on the year. One positive is Eflin has a 23-5 KW ratio. Again, Atlanta was held w/o a run for the first six innings last night.

Josh Tomlin will start tonight for the Braves. He allowed just two runs in four innings in his 2020 starting debut Tuesday (against Washington). Tomlin has also worked out of the bullpen this year where he gave up just two runs in 11+ IP. This will be his first career start vs. the Phillies. The Under is 12-5 in the Braves’ last 17  game 3 of a series. I like the number here as they are also 19-7 Under the L26 home games w/ a total set at 9.0 to 10.5. 10* Under Phillies/Braves

8* Dallas (3:35 ET): While Luka Doncic remains a game-time decision for the Mavericks, I’m going to go ahead and take the points regardless. Were Doncic (sprained ankle) to play here in Game 3, then we’re obviously getting tremendous value. Even if he doesn’t, I still feel this is an overreaction by the oddsmakers for a matchup where my power rankings indicate there’s only a 1.5-point difference between the two teams. Doncic, as good as he is, wouldn’t be worth 7+ points in my estimation. 

All year, I’ve said the Mavs were better than their record and this is their chance to show I wasn’t lying. From a pure numbers perspective, Dallas was the third best team in the West during the regular season (behind only both LA teams) as they had the third best net efficiency rating and point differential. A league-worst 2-11 SU record in games decided by three points or less is what doomed them to the 7-seed and this matchup with the Clippers but all hope is not lost, at least not yet anyway. 

Both Dallas losses in this series have been by eight points while they won Game 2 by 13. Game 1 saw them “in the money” most of the way before fading in the final moments. In Game 3, they had to overcome the loss of Doncic, something they’ll potentially be better prepared for here. The league’s most efficient offense, with or without Doncic, should still be able to cover here. Take the points. 8* Dallas

10* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): It’s “win or go home” for the Sixers this afternoon and despite the obvious disadvantage they are at, I expect them to at the very least “compete” here, if not pull the outright upset. Two of the three losses to Boston have been by eight points and in Game 3, they actually led 94-92 with just under two minutes remaining, only to be outscored 10-0 the rest of the way. They were that close despite shooting a hideous 29.5% for the game, a percentage which should obviously rise dramatically today. Take the points. 

The loss of Ben Simmons may have “cooked” the Sixers season, but let’s not forget that Boston is now without Gordon Hayward for the foreseeable future. The Sixers have defended well in two of the three games here, holding Boston to 42.2% shooting in Game 1 and then 41.4% in Game 3. The Celtics were also 18 of 62 from three-point range in those two games. So it’s not like they’ve been shooting the lights out either. Assuming they don’t go “off” like they did in Game 2, this figures to be another low-scoring game.

The difference now is that Philly is getting more points than they have in any previous game in the series. There is a value on the team down 0-3 in the series as most are willing to write them off while already advancing Boston to the next round. The Sixers are 5-2 SU this season when faced with a three-game losing streak. They will not go quietly on Sunday. 10* Philadelphia

10* Seattle (9:10 ET): You’re unlikely get many recommendations on Seattle from me this season, especially at the 10* level. But they are in a good position tonight, off a win and facing the slumping Rangers. Texas has now dropped six in a row after the 7-4 loss on Friday and it’s tough to find much to like about them tonight with the struggling Jordan Lyles on the bump. Seattle goes with Justus Sheffield, who has been one of their more effective starters of late as it’s been back to back quality outings from him. 

During the six-game losing streak, the Rangers have been outscored 51-28 and allowed at least six runs in every game. The bullpen is bad and with Lyles starting, the trend figures to continue. Lyles has an 8.35 ERA and 1.855 WHIP in his four starts. The last one saw him get rocked for seven runs in four innings by the Padres. While Seattle isn’t San Diego, they have scored six or more runs in three of their last five games. So they’re capable of another big night at the plate. 

It’s pretty telling that the Mariners are favored on the money line here. That’s only happened two times previously this season, both against Colorado here at home. While the M’s lost both of those games, the Rockies are a better team than the Rangers. Sheffield has allowed just 1 ER his L2 starts, which have spanned 12 innings. He’s also not allowed a single HR this season. In the two series before this, Seattle had to face the Astros and Dodgers, so it’s no surprise they’d lost six of seven going into yday. Much better matchup here. 10* Seattle

10* Under Agapova/Dobson (7:00 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division (125 lbs). Agapova is a massive favorite here (-1250 on the ML) so you should expect this one to be over in relatively quick fashion. I’m willing to bet it doesn’t even make it past the halfway mark of Round 2. That’s the bet here.

Agapova brings a 9-1 career record into this fight. Her UFC debut came two months ago and it took only 2:42 for her to submit Hannah Cifers. It was Agapova’s third straight 1st round finish overall. Her last four wins have all taken less than a round as have six of the nine career victories. If she does have a weakness in her game, it’s on the defensive end as she’s prone to take a shot or two. Dobson’s only real shot here would be to land one big punch and that would be fine by me, provided it comes no later than early in the second round.

Dobson is just 3-4 and it’s fairly shocking to see her even fighting for the UFC at this point. She’s lost her last three fights. Two were by decision, but then in February she was KO’d in just 40 seconds by Priscila Cachoeira. Agapova called Dobson out by name after her win in June, so there must be some personal point to prove here. It likely won’t take long to prove. 10* Under Agapova/Dobson

10* Colorado (8:05 ET): So the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs gets underway on Saturday. Colorado was already a team I’d earmarked for success this postseason due to the fact they led all Western Conference teams with a +46 goal differential when the season was paused back in March. They’ve lost just one time (Game 3 to Arizona) in regulation here in the bubble and since then they’ve won two straight in 7-1 fashion. You may recall that in the round robin format, I took the Avs when they played Dallas and that was a 4-0 win. 

I see no reason to expect the Avalanche to slow down anytime soon. Their 3.88 goals per game average as well as their 1.63 gpg allowed average are both league bests since the restart. Goalie Philipp Grubauer is sporting a .953 save percentage and he wasn’t even the one that shut the Stars out back on August 5th (that was Pavel Francouz). I think that right now you have to consider the Avs as the Stanley Cup favorites. 

Dallas did win all four regular season matchups with Colorado, but that meant nothing in the game 17 days ago and means even less now. The Stars had lost eight straight games (going back to March) when they beat St. Louis 2-1 on August 9th (on three days rest). Then they got to face a weak Calgary team in the first round. The quicker turnaround between series (just 1 day as opposed to 2 for Colorado) does them no favors. The Stars simply lack the firepower necessary to keep up with the high-flying Avs, who have four wins by three goals or more in the bubble. Dallas’ seven-goal outburst in the close out game vs. Calgary, where they had to rally from a three-goal deficit, was a total anomaly. 10* Colorado

8* Oklahoma City (6:05 ET): Like the Pacers, the Thunder also have their proverbial “backs against the wall” on Saturday. They are down 0-2 in this series and responsible for the other loss (besides Indiana) for “zig-zag” bettors. Perhaps it's difficult to fathom now, but OKC was actually favored to win Game 1. That was a case of bad pricing, but with the public firmly OFF their bandwagon now, I’m grabbing the points with the Thunder for Game 3. Important to note that OKC has not lost more than three in a row all season. (They lost their final seeding game, FYI). 

Houston hasn’t had Russell Westbrook’s services in this series nor have they needed them. Six Rockets are averaging double figures in this series, led by James Harden’s (somewhat modest) 28.7 PPG. This is somewhat of a “best case scenario” for the Rockets being up 2-0 despite Westbrook not playing. But they did trail at halftime and after three quarters in Game 2. 

Oklahoma City had the league’s best ATS record in the regular season. They also have a history of coming up big in this spot, going 5-0 SU the last five Game 3’s where they dropped the first two games of the series. While it’s a little scary that Houston is up 2-0 despite not playing its best, the Thunder got 21 fewer points in Game 2 from Gallinari & Adams than in Game 1. They should both bounce back. 8* Oklahoma City

8* Indiana (3:35 ET): Admittedly, I’ve been on the wrong side (Indiana) in both games of this series. But I’m not ready to come off the point that I have these teams essentially evenly rated. Excluding the Boston-Philadelphia series, “zig-zag” players (taking ATS losers from the previous game) are 8-2 ATS in the NBA Playoffs. One of those two losses was obviously the Pacers in Game 2. But with their backs against the wall today (season pretty much on the line) and getting points, I’m coming back with them again.

Indiana had the same net efficiency rating as Miami coming into this series and actually rated higher on the defensive end, which is something I put a lot of stock into this time of year. The respective YTD point differentials of these two teams was pretty similar as well. It’s not as if Indiana has been blown out in either game. They’ve lost by 12 and 9 points. Game 1 saw them lose Victor Oladipo to an eye injury in the 1st quarter and still it was a one-possession game heading into the 4th. 

Not since the first game of the bubble has Indiana allowed more than 114 points. Theoretically, that should make them a live dog. Miami shot 51.4% from three-point range in Game 2, which won’t happen again today. T.J. Warren, who averaged 31.0 PPG in the seeding games on 57.4% shooting, has been held to 18.0 PPG in the first two games of this series. His numbers should improve. The Pacers aren’t dead yet. 8* Indiana

8* Orlando (1:05 ET): After “shocking the world” in Game 1 (won 122-110), the Magic predictably dropped Game 2 to the Bucks by a score of 111-96. After shooting so well in the first game, there was a dramatic dropoff in Game 2 with the Magic making only 34.8% of their total shot attempts including just 7 of 33 from three-point range. Now that Milwaukee has proven the “zig zag” theory (take ATS loser of previous game to cover) correct, this time it’s Orlando’s turn. Take the points. 

The offensive effort turned in by the Magic in Game 1 is something we are unlikely to see again. But certainly they should shoot better than they did on Thursday when they missed 25 of their first 28 FG attempts. Evan Fournier, the team’s second leading scorer, is making only 33% of his FG attempts in this series. He should improve today. There have been no issues for leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, who has averaged 33.5 points and 12.0 rebounds. 

Though not quite as efficient as the Bucks are defensively, Orlando isn’t bad at that end of the floor. In fact, they were top five in scoring defense during the regular season, holding opponents to just 108.3 PPG. MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo is shooting just 45.8% in the series and has 12 turnovers. Two days ago, we saw a Brooklyn team catching double digits and coming off a DD loss, cover wire-to-wire. Favorites have gone 8-0 ATS the L2 days in the NBA Playoffs. It’s time for the dogs to “get some back.” 8* Orlando

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Flyers get a second chance to put away the Canadiens on Friday. They failed to do so in Game 5 where they lost 5-3. For the most part, they’ve kept the Habs in check offensively in this series. In the three wins, they’ve posted two shutouts and allowed just one goal overall. But in both losses, they’ve been scored on five times. Seems to me that Montreal would be better served “saving” some of these goals for other games. As good as Carey Price has been in goal for them, the Habs are a 12-seed and they go home after tonight.

Going back to mid-January, Philadelphia has been the hottest team in the league. Wednesday marked just the second loss in the bubble for the Flyers, who earned the top seed in the Eastern Conference by sweeping their round robin games. In the six wins, they’ve allowed a total of just four goals. In the two losses to Montreal, that number jumps to 10. Interestingly enough, the Flyers also had their highest scoring game of the series in Game 5 with all three goals coming from the power play. They’ve only scored eight times in this series, but remember they had 10 goals in the three round-robin games. 

Price is obviously the main reason Montreal has made it thus far. He has a .943 save percentage in the bubble with a pair of shutouts. However, Carter Hart of Philadelphia has an ever so slightly better save percentage (.944) and his two shutouts have both been in this series. The Habs won’t have Brandon Gallagher anymore as he suffered a broken jaw in Game 5. Meanwhile, the Flyers have won the L6 times they have been off a game in which they allowed 5+ goals. 10* Philadelphia

10* Over Tigers/Indians (7:10 ET): Cleveland posted its MLB-leading 5th shutout yday in a 2-0 win over Pittsburgh. That was the Tribe’s second straight sweep as they’ve won six in a row to surge near the top of the American League standings. Before sweeping the Pirates, they swept the Tigers and that’s who they’ll face again this weekend. While Cleveland has baseball’s best Under mark (18-7) due to them allowing just a MLB-low 2.64 rpg, their offense came alive in last week’s series at Detroit, scoring 21 runs in three games. I like this game to go Over the total. 

Cleveland’s offense had been showing signs of life before yesterday. They’d scored six or more runs in four of their previous five ballgames. Two of their best offensive efforts came last weekend against the Tigers when they scored 10 and 8 runs respectively. I have no doubt they’ll put plenty of runs on the board tonight as they face Michael Fulmer again. Fulmer has a 7.55 ERA and 2.038 WHIP in his three starts. He lasted just 2 ⅔ last weekend vs. the Indians and allowed a pair of home runs. He’s yet to go more than three innings this year and, needless to say, the Tigers’ bullpen has not been good either. 

Detroit has allowed 7 or more runs in seven of its last nine games. If Cleveland is unable to send this one Over on its own, then we’ll obviously need at least a few runs from the Tigers. They’re in luck in that they’re facing Adam Plutko tonight, perhaps the weakest member of the Indians’ rotation. When he faced off with Fulmer last weekend, Plutko also lasted just 2 ⅔ innings.  He allowed three runs. Cleveland should continue its mastery of Detroit (20 straight wins!) here, albeit in higher-scoring fashion than usual. 10* Over Tigers/Indians

8* Philadelphia (6:35 ET): The Sixers are down 0-2 in the series, so that all but makes this a “must-win.” Of course, as I’ve said many times previously, “must win” doesn’t necessarily mean “will win.” But I like Philly to at least cover the spread in Game 3, something they’ve yet to do in the series. They were a lot closer in Game 1 (lost 109-101) than they were in Game 2 (lost 128-101) but I expect improved numbers across the board tonight. 

There’s been much conversation about Philly’s limited offensive abilities, especially now that they are without Ben Simmons. The team shot just 41.2% in Game 2 including 5 of 21 on three-point attempts. They obviously need to be better in Game 3 and I believe they will be. The three-point line has been huge for Boston so far in the series as they are out-scoring the Sixers 87-42 from distance. But they didn’t make a very high percentage in Game 1 and I don’t see them shooting 25 of 43 2-pt attempts again like they did in Game 2. 

The Sixers are just 3-7 ATS in the bubble with one of those covers coming in the meaningless seeding game finale. As overmatched as they’ve looked against Boston, I expect the Sixers best effort of the series to come tonight. The Celtics don’t have Gordon Hayward any longer, remember that. Philadelphia has covered five straight times when coming off a loss by 10 or more points. 8* Philadelphia

10* Cincinnati (8:15 ET): It has been a tumultuous last week or so for the Reds. Their season was briefly paused due to COVID-19 concerns and then yesterday, long-time play by play announcer Thom Brennaman said something he shouldn’t have. Wednesday marked the team’s return to the field after a four-day break and they split a doubleheader with the Royals with each team winning in shutout fashion. I’ve been pretty disappointed with the Reds so far (touted as a playoff contender) as they are just 10-12. But Sonny Gray is starting Thursday’s opener in St. Louis and like Cincy to come through here. 

Gray is 4-1 in his five starts with a 2.05 ERA and 0.913 WHIP. He’s allowed 1 ER in four of the five starts, the only “bad” one coming in Milwaukee. His KW ratio is 45-9. While the Reds haven’t been able to string together many victories so far in 2020, they are 7-3 their L10 games as a favorite including 4-1 when on the road. I think it “speaks volumes” that they are favored to win here in St. Louis and that’s largely owed to Gray. 

St. Louis has a much more serious COVID-19 outbreak in its clubhouse and thus has played only 13 games to this point. They’re just 6-7 as they too split a doubleheader yday. It was against the Cubs, who had previously beaten them each of the last two days. Adam Wainwright will start opposite Gray and while he’s got similar numbers, it’s been only two starts and one of them was against Pittsburgh. It’s time for the Reds to “turn it on” and start playing up to their potential. 10* Cincinnati

10* Under Thunder/Rockets (3:35 ET): Despite not having Russell Westrbook, Houston had no problems shutting down OKC in Game 1 of this series. It was a 123-108 win Tuesday, led by James Harden’s 37 points. The team shot 48% overall from the floor and made 20 three-pointers. They led by 21 going into the fourth quarter. It probably won’t be that easy in Game 2 as I see this being a lower-scoring affair. 

Oklahoma City was actually favored in Game 1, but that’s not the case here as they look to bounce back and even the series up. The Thunder have been one of the lower scoring teams in the bubble thus far as they’ve topped 110 points in only three games. The only time they scored more than 116 was against Washington, the worst defensive team in the bubble. The Rockets are not noted as a defensive stalwart, but they clearly did a good job in Game 1. Danilo Gallinari probably won’t be matching his career-high 29 pt effort from Game 1 either.

Betting the Under has been profitable this season when the Rockets are playing away from home. Obviously, that’ll be the case the rest of the way. The Under is 6-2 their last eight games overall and a perfect 7-0 the L7 times they’ve taken the court on exactly one day’s rest. With no Westrbook, there’s a heavy offensive burden on Harden. The Thunder are 45-19-1 Under their L65 games as an underdog. Game 1 may have just snuck Over, but Game 2 won’t. 10* Under Thunder/Rockets

9* Colorado (3:10 ET): This is a radical departure from the last two days where I backed Houston both times. The win on Tuesday was low-scoring in nature (2-1) and required extra innings. As I predicted it would, the Astros offense picked up yesterday (as the series moved to Coors Field) in a 13-6 rout (led 13-3 heading into the ninth).Houston has now won seven straight as they’ve clearly moved past that slow start to the season. 

Colorado is looking to avoid a sweep today (first two games in Houston, yday’s game here at Coors). The big reason I am switching courses here as that Rockies starter German Marquez knows how to pitch here at Coors Field, which is something that few can say. Quite frankly, Marquez is capable of pitching well ANYWHERE as evident by his 2.25 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in five starts this season. But it’s his ability to overcome the thin air of his home park that sets him apart. The Rockies have won 10 of Marquez’s last 15 Coors starts. 

In four of the Astros’ seven straight wins, they have scored three runs or fewer. It was predictable that they’d pick up their production with the series moving here, but at the same time the pitching will suffer. Rookie Cristian Javier has a 0.822 WHIP on the year, but something to note is that he allowed 3 HRs and 5 runs total his last time starting on the road. Houston’s offense will suffer now that Yordan Alvarez is done (for the year!) and Alex Bregman left yday’s game. 9* Colorado

10* Indiana (1:05 ET): Despite the Game 1 loss, I believe Indiana is still being undervalued in this series. My own personal power ratings indicate this matchup should be a near pick ‘em. The Pacers and Heat have similar YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings, the latter metric being dead even. Therefore, I’m not sure why the Heat are laying this many points. Also key is the Pacers’ 5th place ranking in defensive efficiency, something I highly value this time of year. Let’s try taking the points again for Game 2.

Game 1 was a back & forth affair and a one-point game heading into the 4Q. This despite Indiana losing Victor Oladipo to an eye injury early in the 1Q. That was ill-timed as Oladipo just had his minutes restriction lifted and was expected to be a big part of the Pacers’ offense in this series (along with TJ Warren). Despite losing Oladipo, the Pacers kept with Miami most of the game. That’s a good sign then if Oladipo can’t go Thursday. He’s currently listed as day to day despite the team saying there were no initial concerns.

Indiana went 6-2 SU/ATS in its seeding games while Miami was just 3-5 SU/ATS. Since the opening win over Philadelphia (127-121), the Pacers haven’t given up more than 114 points in any game. They are also 10-2 ATS this season when coming off a DD loss. Miami is just 8-15 ATS off a DD win and is 17-36 ATS in that situation the L3 seasons. We saw the “zig zag” theory come through in a pair of afternoon games yesterday. I’ll go w/ it again. 10* Indiana

8* Dallas (9:05 ET): By some metrics, the Mavericks were the third best team in the West this year. They posted the third best net efficiency rating (+4.2) and the third best point differential (+4.9 per game). Unfortunately, what determines a team’s seeding is its won-loss record. In that regard, Dallas finished 7th, earning them a tough 1st round matchup with the Clippers. The Mavs are better than their record. If it feels like I said this all before, that’s because this is all from my Game 1 analysis!

Now Game 1 didn’t work out for the Mavs. They lost 118-110 despite 42 points from Luka Doncic, the most ever by a player making his playoff debut. Clearly they were hurt by the ejection of Kristaps Porzingis early in the second half. Yet they remained within striking distance until the final minute. A 110-point effort is below the standard set by the team that had the #1 offensive efficiency during the regular season.

While Dallas is just 2-7 ATS in the bubble and the Clippers 7-2 ATS, my own personal power rankings continue to have this number closer to +2, so there’s value on the dog. Half of the Mavs’ bubble losses have been by four points or less. Another zig-zag opportunity. 8* Dallas

10* Houston (8:40 ET): It was close (2-1 in 11 innings), but the Astros came through for me yesterday. As was gone over in the analysis, there was no need to worry about the team’s pitching as it has now allowed two runs or less in six straight games, all of those wins. The offense has been a bit “spotty” but it’s a confidence builder that the last four wins have seen the Astros score three runs or less. My guess is that the offense gets it going tonight as the series with the Rockies now shifts to the thin air of Denver. 

At the same time, the strong pitching we’ve seen from Houston should continue tonight. Framber Valdez was an easy winner when I took him in his last start. He pitched six innings and allowed just one run on four hits as the Astros crushed the Mariners 11-1. That was the team’s one big offensive game during the win streak. Given that the Rockies are allowing their “usual” average of 6.0 runs per game here at Coors this season, Valdez is likely to get plenty of run support once again. He’s allowed only six runs in 17 ⅓ thus far, just four of those runs being earned. 

Colorado counters with Ryan Castellani as they look to snap a seven-game losing streak to the Astros. Castellani has faced two weaker AL West teams so far, those being Texas and Seattle, and he did pretty well. Though he didn’t go more than 4 ⅔ in either outing. That’s a problem here considering how poor the Rockies’ bullpen has been in home games. It’s ERA is 7.23 in 13 games as they are giving up 3.1 runs in an average of about 3 ⅓ innings. Big mismatch here as indicated by the oddsmakers. 10* Houston

8* Utah (4:05 ET): I’m standing pat with my read on this series. I took the Jazz in Game 1 and that should have been an outright win. Up four, they had the ball with 1:54 remaining. That’s when Donovan Mitchell (who scored 57 points!) was called for an 8-second violation. Denver answered with a three, which followed a backcourt violation that wasn’t called. From there, the game went to overtime where the Nuggets won and covered 135-125. It was the second time in the bubble that the Nuggets beat the Jazz in overtime.

Winning close is something we’ve seen far too often from Denver. It’s how they ended up with the 3-seed in the West despite having the Conference’s 7th best net efficiency rating. Utah knows this all too well. They are now 0-4 SU vs. the Nuggets this season with Monday’s OT loss following three that came by a total of 11 points. As I said in my Game 1 analysis, “all things equal, I have Utah rated as the better team here.” 

Now the Jazz are without Mike Conley for at least one more game and Bojan Bogdanovic. But Mitchell’s 57 points in Game 1 show me he can certainly carry the scoring load. Will he match that in Game 2? Probably not. But Denver won’t shoot as well as it did from 3-point range (53.7%!) again either. The Nuggets have defensive issues as they’ve allowed 125+ points in all but two games since the restart. Furthermore, they are dealing with the absences of Will Barton and Gary Harris. Take the points. 8* Utah

8* Brooklyn (1:35 ET): We all know the Nets entered the bubble short-handed. But that didn’t stop them from going 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in the seeding games (despite being an underdog in all eight games). With so many scoring options on the sideline, Caris LeVert picked up the slack. The team scored 115+ points in every seeding game but one. For the first time in team history, the Nets scored 115 or more in six consecutive games. They beat Milwaukee and the Clippers outright while nearly keeping Portland out of the postseason mix (lost by 1 in a game where they had nothing to play for while the Blazers had to win). 

Now Game 1 against the Raptors obviously didn’t go well. The Nets fell into an early 33-point hole while holding LeVert to just 15 points. On the bright side, they didn’t roll over. At one point, Brooklyn got the margin back down to eight points. LeVert had a career-high 15 assists, continuing a positive trend that saw him average 6.7 of those per game in the seeding games. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot had a career-high 26 points. Things got out of hand again late, but that’ll happen when you fall into such an early hole. 

Playoff underdogs off a double digit loss and getting double digits from the oddsmakers in the next game are prime underdogs for the famed “zig zag” theory. Clearly, not many are giving the Nets much of a chance in this series. After all, Toronto is the defending NBA Champion and won Game 1 by 24 points. But Brooklyn is 11-8 ATS this season off a DD loss. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 9-14 ATS off a DD win this year. The big key from Game 1 was Toronto shot 50.0% from 3-pt range while Brooklyn was at just 31%. The discrepancy won’t be as severe this time around. Take the point. 8* Brooklyn

6* Vegas (10:35 ET): After failing in their first try to do so, look for Vegas to finish off Chicago Tuesday night. Game 4 was the Golden Knights first loss since the restart. Granted they’d been “living dangerously” in a few of the wins, but they are clearly the more talented side here compared to the 12th seeded Blackhawks, a team that was in last place of the Central Division when the season was paused back in March. The fact Vegas outshot Chicago 49-25 in Game 4 should not be overlooked. 

"When they've been better than us, they've been way better than us," said Chicago coach Jeremy Colliton in reference to the Golden Knights. That about sums up the series to me. As good as Blackhawks’ goalie Corey Crawford (48 saves) was Sunday night, he’s not going to be able to bail his team out of this series hole. Vegas hasn’t even scored a power play goal in the series yet, going 0 for 9 when on the man advantage. They’ve outshot their opponents in five of seven games so far, often holding large advantages. 

Since coming into existence three years ago, Vegas has had Chicago’s number. They’ve won 11 of the 13 all-time head to head matchups. Again, this was a real fortunate draw for the Golden Knights. By sweeping their round robin games, they earned the #1 seed and drew the #12 seed. Vegas is 7-1 SU when coming off a game where they scored two or fewer goals. 6* Vegas

6* Cleveland (7:05 ET): This series is tailor-made for the Indians to continue their fine stretch of pitching as they face the last place Pirates. While Cleveland is “only” 13-9 on the year, they have given up the fewest number of runs in all of baseball (62) or an average of just 2.8 per game. They are fresh (had Monday off) after a weekend sweep of another last place team, the Tigers, whom they are now 21-1 against since the start of last year. Despite playing four fewer games than Cleveland so far, Pittsburgh has allowed 46 more runs. 

It has not been a good start to the season for the Pirates as they are 4-14, which is the worst record in all of MLB right now. They are allowing 6.0 rpg, more than double what Cleveland allows. The bullpen has been horrendous with a 7.13 ERA and 1.73 WHIP here at PNC Park and tonight’s starter (JT Brubaker) allowed three runs in three innings in his only start. We know Cleveland’s pitching is good, but this could also be the series where their offense gets going. They did score 21 runs in three games vs. the Tigers. 

Carlos Carrasco starts for the Tribe tonight. After going 6 innings in each of his first three starts, he had his worst outing so far against the Cubs last Wednesday. But he should bounce back here facing a lineup that has produced only one run in two of its last three games. Note that Cleveland is a perfect 10-0 this year when scoring 3+ runs. Pittsburgh hasn’t played since Friday due to the COVID-19 concerns with Cincinnati. Their hitters could be rusty and that’s not good when facing this opponent. 6* Cleveland

10* Indiana (4:05 ET): This is yet another Game 1 where my own personal power ratings differ greatly from the actual line. To me, this series is a pick ‘em. The Pacers and Heat have similar YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings, the latter metric being dead even. Therefore, I’m not sure why the Heat are laying this many points. Also key is the Pacers’ 5th place ranking in defensive efficiency, something I highly value this time of year. I’m definitely taking the points here in Game 1 and obviously would not be surprised at an outright upset. 

The Pacers have performed better than expected here in the bubble. They’ve gone 6-2 SU/ATS and played as well defensively as any team has. Victor Oladipo reversing his decision to ‘opt out’ probably has a lot to do with the team exceeding expectations. But make no mistake about it, TJ Warren has been the breakout star here as he had 53 pts in the opener vs. Philadelphia and shot an astounding 65.3% from the field in the first three games. Over the L7 contests, Indiana has not allowed more than 114 pts to any opponent, which includes Miami twice.

Warren vs. Miami’s Jimmy Butler seems to be the headline story for this series. Neither player suited up when these teams just played Friday. The Pacers won that game anyway 109-92. They did lose the first matchup by a similar margin (114-92), but that was one of only three victories in the bubble so far for the Heat and it was a terrible shooting night for the Pacers. Miami simply hasn’t been great away from home this year and doesn’t have a “go-to” second option for scoring behind Butler. Something else I like is the Pacers’ 10-3 ATS record playing on three days rest the L3 seasons. 10* Indiana

6* Houston (3:10 ET): These seem to be two teams trending in very different directions right now. Houston has won five straight while giving up just six runs! Meanwhile, Colorado has lost four of its last five. Yesterday’s series opener saw the Astros prevail 2-1 behind rookie Brandon Bielak, who allowed just one run on one hit through six innings. That the ‘Stros have been able to win three in a row while scoring three runs or fewer in four of the games is an obvious testament to their pitching. Tonight Zack Greinke is on the hill. 

Greinke got his 1st win of the season his last time out with 6 ⅓ solid innings against the Giants where he allowed just one run. That started the team’s (now) five-game run. Greinke had pitched well before that as well. In fact, he threw six shutout innings against Oakland on 8/7 and has a 1.50 ERA/0.944 WHIP his L3 starts overall. I give Greinke the clear edge over Antonio Senzatela in tonight’s pitching matchup as the latter just allowed 5 ER in his last start. That’s more than Greinke has allowed his L3 starts combined. 

Houston has really dominated Colorado the last few years, going 7-2 head to head and 5-0 since the start of last season. I think the way these teams started their respective seasons was a “mirage” as you had to figure it was only a matter of time before the Astros turned things around while the Rockies certainly aren’t going to be able to keep pace with the Dodgers. As you can tell, oddsmakers aren’t fooled here and neither am I. 6* Houston

10* Dallas (9:00 ET): By some metrics, the Mavericks were the third best team in the West this year. They posted the third best net efficiency rating (+4.2) and the third best point differential (+4.9 per game). Unfortunately, what determines a team’s seeding is its won-loss record. In that regard, Dallas finished 7th, earning them a tough 1st round matchup with the Clippers. I’ve been through this before, but the Mavs are better than their WL record. I think they are a great value here in Game 1.

Dallas hasn’t been all that great in the bubble as they went just 3-5 SU and saw the aforementioned net efficiency/point differential go down. Interesting to note, they were favored in only two of eight games. So it’s not like oddsmakers were expecting a better showing. There were several games with blown leads though and three of the five losses were by three points or less. That’s been a problem for the Mavs all season as they are a league-worst 2-11 SU in games decided by three points or less. Fortunately, we’ve got a workable pointspread here that would negate that issue.

The Mavs have posted the league’s best offensive efficiency this year. They are one of just two teams better than the Clippers in that department. The Clips have only lost three times in the bubble, but twice they were a favorite of 9 or more. So there’s a precedent for them getting upset. I am not ready to give up on this Mavs team as my own personal power rankings indicate this number should be closer to 2 points! 10* Dallas

10* Boston (8:05 ET): The “demise” of the Bruins has clearly been exaggerated. While they did lose all three round robin games, it can’t be forgotten that no team had more points when the season was paused back in March. They made the Stanley Cup Finals last year AND had the 2020 season’s best goal differential. Judging them based on a three-game sample size would be a mistake. Boston now leads this best of seven series with Carolina 2 games to 1 after taking Game 3 by a score of 3-1.

While Carolina came into this series on a real “high” (swept the Rangers in the qualification round), the Bruins have definitely had their number the last few seasons. The Hurricanes have only been able to win two of the previous 14 head to head meetings and that includes the victory in Game 2 of this series. Boston has outshot the Canes’ substantially in this series (+30), holding an edge of at least +9 in every game. 

Obviously, the big story moving forward for Boston is how do they handle the loss of goalie Tuukka Rask, who decided to opt out of the rest of the season. Rask is a big loss, but backup Jaroslav Halak came in and played very well in Game 3. As big of a deal as Rask opting out is, Carolina potentially losing Andrei Svechnikov for the rest of the series may very well be bigger given the Hurricanes have less depth compared to the Bruins. 10* Boston

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): The Braves are three games over .500 and tied with Miami (!) for 1st place in the National League East. Keep in mind they have played eight more games than the Marlins. Perhaps an even bigger surprise within the division is Washington being three games below .500 at this point as the reigning World Series champs are struggling. Given the pitching matchup on tap for today, this hardly looks like the time that the team near the bottom of the standings (Nationals) will topple the one near the top (Braves). 

Atlanta just took two of three from Miami over the weekend, so they have to be feeling pretty good about themselves entering this series. That they were able to take two of three down in Miami while scoring only eight runs the entire series speaks to the pitching. Speaking of which, Touki Toussant gets the starting nod Monday. He’s got a solid WHIP (1.022) so far and has won both starts at home where the Braves are 7-2 overall this year. While he didn’t pitch well his last time out, that was in Yankee Stadium. 

Meanwhile, it’s been tough times so far for Washington’s Anibal Sanchez, who has lost all three starts and has a 9.69 ERA & 2.154 WHIP. He’s given up 14 ER in only 13 IP and allowed 5 HR’s. He’s allowed at least 4 ER in every start. Injuries are definitely a concern for both clubs right now with Acuna among those out for the Braves while Castro is out for the Nationals. Look for Braves’ pitching to be the difference in this one as they’ve also got the superior bullpen numbers right now. 10* Atlanta

8* Utah (1:35 ET): The Jazz will enter this series against the Nuggets short-handed as PG Mike Conley has left the bubble for the birth of his son. Ed Davis is out too. They were already without second-leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20 PPG. But this is all about fading a Nuggets team I believe to be highly overrated. I was hoping that somehow we’d get a Nuggets-Mavericks 1st round series as that would have been Dallas’ for the taking. But Utah plus the points will have to do here.

All things equal, I’ve got the Jazz rated as the better team here. Now the loss of Conley and Bogdanovic obviously has to be accounted for. But let’s not forget that Denver has been without multiple starters the entire time in the bubble. Neither Will Barton nor Gary Harris has played a single game and their statuses are listed as questionable for Game 1. Just last week, Utah was FAVORED to beat Denver. This line seems like an overreaction to the Conley news, plain and simple.

Maybe the line also has to do with the fact Denver is 3-0 SU vs. Utah this season. But those three wins have been by a total of 11 points. The most recent, last week, saw the Nuggets win by two (134-132) in double overtime. The Jazz have a higher defensive efficiency rating than the Nuggets, which is something I really value this time of year. Denver not only gave up 125+ pts in all but two games in the bubble, they have also lost the last three games. Utah still has Donovan Mitchell to carry the load. In the meeting last week, Utah led 63-49 at halftime and somehow lost despite going 22 of 55 from three-point range while Denver was just 9 of 37. 8* Utah

8* St. Louis (10:35 ET): Forget about repeating, the Blues’ season is on the brink right now as they find themselves in an 0-2 series hole to Vancouver. The Blues are the ONLY team in the league not to have won a game since the restart and another loss tonight would all but end their hopes of B2B Stanley Cups. I’m going to keep the faith one last time with this club as Vancouver has been scoring at an unsustainable rate thus far in the bubble. I’m banking that can’t continue. 

The Canucks were shutout in their first game by Minnesota, losing 3-0. Since then, they have averaged 4.2 goals and won all five games. But what’s crazy about their scoring average is that they are getting off only 27.0 shots per game, which is among the lowest numbers in the entire bubble! The shooting percentage in those L5 games is a ridiculous 15.6%. They just can’t keep doing that. 

The Blues’ Game 2 loss was the second time in five games they lost in overtime. Another loss came at the buzzer (literally) of regulation while another saw them lose a two-goal lead. That they were able to fight back in the third period and force OT Friday should be taken as a positive sign. I just feel that they are due to breakthrough for a win here. 8* St. Louis

10* Under Red Sox/Yankees (7:10 ET): The Red Sox have given up a total of 38 runs the last three games, including 21 in the two versus the Yankees. This is a very bad baseball team right now as the Sox have lost six straight to fall to 6-15 on the year, which has them in last place in the AL East. Their run differential is -40. That’s second worst in all of baseball (Seattle). Meanwhile, things are going quite well for the Yankees so far as they are 14-6 and lead the division. Their run differential (+33) is tied for 2nd best in all of MLB. 

With the last two days being so high scoring, it’s not a surprise that we’ve got a high total to work with on Sunday Night Baseball. Also, the Over is 5-0-1 during Boston’s losing streak as they’ve allowed eight or more runs in all of those games. The good news for this game (if you’re Boston) is that the Yankees are going to be without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and D.J. LeMahieu. While they’ve been sans the first two all series, LeMahieu is the one leading all AL hitters with a .411 average. He sprained his thumb last night. 

Chris Mazza will be the 11th different starter used by the Red Sox already this season, which should tell you all you need to know about the state of this rotation. Back on August 1st, Mazza did throw a couple scoreless innings of relief against the Yankees. So there’s that. Yankees’ starter J.A. Happ is 11-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 24 career starts vs. Boston, so he should pitch well against the worst Red Sox team in many years. Look for this game to defy recent trends. 10* Under Red Sox/Yankees

8* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): The Dodgers, who I currently have rated as the top team in MLB, go for the sweep Sunday against the cross-town rival Angels. They’ve won the first two games 7-4 and 6-5, the latter being last night’s extra inning affair. While it’s now a season-high four straight wins for Dodger Blue, this team has really been dominating opponents all season long. They have a +55 run differential, which is by far and away better than any other team. 

Meanwhile, the Angels are now 7-14 and have dropped three in a row. That has to be really frustrating for a team whose week began with a couple of wins over the previously red-hot A’s. But those are their only two wins in the L8 games. Having Julio Teheran on the bump vs. a team like the Dodgers puts the Halos at a massive disadvantage. Teheran has yet to go three innings in a start this year. He’s lasted a total of just 4 ⅔ in his two outings while giving up seven runs. 

The Dodgers turn to Dustin May, who is coming off B2B quality starts, both vs. the Padres. May has a 2.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in four starts and has allowed 2 ER or less in all of them. The Angels have never faced him, which is another disadvantage. Teheran has faced the Dodgers eight times previous to this and he’s 0-6 with a 5.35 ERA. Teheran’s awful start can probably be traced to the fact he reported to summer camp late due to testing positive for COVID-19. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): St. Louis has played only seven games due to a COVID outbreak. Yesterday was their return to the diamond and they made it count, sweeping a doubleheader by scores of 6-3 and 5-1 (both games only seven innings). Look for Chicago to be motivated for revenge today. While home field advantage obviously is a lot different this season, the fact that the White Sox are just 2-8 at Guaranteed Rate Field is perplexing. This was supposed to be a “breakout” team in 2020. 

Yesterday’s sweep dropped the White Sox to 10-11 on the season. They had just won two straight in Detroit. Having Dallas Keuchel on the mound for this afternoon’s game would seem to put them at an advantage. Keuchel has a 3.04 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in four starts. Though the White Sox have lost the last two, those were by scores of 1-0 and 5-1 with Keuchel only allowing 4 runs in 13 total innings. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start. Count on a quality outing here.

Even though doubleheader games are just seven innings apiece, don’t think for a second that this isn’t a tough return for the Cardinals, who were off for 17 days. They’ll now have to play eight games in five days. That’s after having 10 players on the infected list. Dakota Hudson goes Sunday and his only prior start of 2020 saw him allow four runs and seven hits in just 4 ⅓ IP with 2 HR allowed.  10* Chi White Sox

10* Over Pichel/Miller (9:35 ET): This is a lightweight fight (155 lbs) scheduled for three rounds between Jim Miller (32-14) and Vinc Pichel (12-2). Both fighters will be north of 36 when they hit the cage Saturday night and both are coming off victories over the same fighter (Roosevelt Roberts) in their respective last fights. But that is where the similarities largely end between the two. I see this as a fight likely to go to the judges and will take the Over.

This will be Miller’s 47th pro fight and his second in the last three months. He submitted Roberts back in June at UFC on ESPN 11, needing only 2:25 to do so. Three of his last four fights have gotten “Fight of the Night” honors. Surprisingly, only one of the last seven (a loss to Scott Holzman back in February), have made it to the cards. The other six, win or lose, have all ended in the first round! But that recent rash of quick fights plays a large hand in dictating this play. Before these L7 fights, Miller went to five straight decisions.

Pichel is actually older than Miller but has just 14 career fights to Miller’s 47. Pichel last fought in June of ‘19 when he beat Roberts by decision. Because of injuries, this will be just the third fight for Pichel in the last two years. So he’s been far less active compared to Miller. Four of his last six fights have gone to decision. Though he’s won five of his six UFC fights, Pichel doesn’t have much punching power, so Miller is safe in that regard. Look for this fight to go to the ground and stay there for much of the time. 10* Over Pichel/Miller

10* Over Lightning/Blue Jackets (7:35 ET): Tampa Bay got off 37 shots in Game 2, but could only score one goal. They also outhit the Blue Jackets, but still lost 3-1. This series is now tied at one game apiece. It was a five overtime marathon in Game 1 (I backed the Lightning there). Game 2, I had the Over, which was looking good after the first period three goals were scored. Unfortunately, we know how things ended up. Time to double down on the Over here even though no TB game has gone that way so far. 

The Lightning were one of the highest scoring teams in the league this year at 3.4 goals per game. They’ve scored three goals in all three wins since the restart, but been held to only one in both losses. I think they are due to bounce back offensively in Game 3. At the same time, they have allowed multiple goals in every game since returning. 

With the exception of being shutout by Toronto in Game 2 of that series, Columbus has scored multiple goals in every game since the restart. I’m counting on both sides scoring multiple goals here and if that happens we can obviously do no worse than a push. I do not think Joonas Korpisalo can possibly maintain his .962 save percentage in the bubble. 10* Over Lightning/Blue Jackets

7* Washington (7:35 ET): Yesterday was a day of highs and lows for the Nationals. Lows in the sense that they lost a game that had been suspended on Sunday. Then, once the second game began, they quickly lost Stephen Strasburg and Starlin Castro to injuries. But the “high” came in the form of a 15-3 win over the Orioles, snapping their six-game win streak. Even with the injuries and inferior record, the Nats are still the better team here as you can tell by how the oddmakers are pricing them. 

Baltimore lost 108 and 115 games each of the last two seasons and was again expected to be one of the weaker American League clubs heading into 2020. They’ve surprised with an 11-8 start, but do not expect this to last as they have only been priced as a favorite in two games and lost them both. Asher Wojciechowski doesn’t inspire much confidence on the mound. Saturday’s starter did throw 3 ⅔ scoreless innings against Washington on Sunday (game that was finished yday), but the O’s lost his first two starts, one of which saw him give up 3 HRs.

The Nats go with Pat Corbin, who has averaged 6 IP per outing while never allowing more than 3 ER. He did not pitch in the previous series vs. Baltimore. Last time Corbin did pitch, the Nationals won 16-4. Washington is scoring a ton on the road thus far and is 15-8 when priced at -175 or higher away from home the L3 seasons. 7* Washington

10* Memphis (2:35 ET): My numbers say the Suns were better than both of these teams. However, a superior net efficiency rating (for the whole season), or even an 8-0 SU/ATS run in the bubble was good enough to get them in. So we’ve got Portland & Memphis duking it out for the right to face LeBron & the Lakers in Round 1 of the playoffs proper. Memphis needs to defeat Portland both today AND tomorrow to qualify while Portland only needs to win one of the two games. If the Blazers win Saturday, then they move on and the Grizzlies go home. 

Despite a remarkable showing from Damian Lillard the L3 games (154 points by himself!), the Blazers were still only able to defeat Philadelphia, Dallas & Brooklyn by a combined SEVEN points. Philadelphia played short-handed (no Simmons or Embiid) while the other two opponents had nothing to play for and sat starters. Still, the Blazers got a run for their money every time. Scoring is not an issue for Portland, but defense is. They’ve allowed 121 or more points in four straight games and six of eight here in the bubble. They have the 4th worst defensive efficiency in the LEAGUE this season. 

Not much has gone right for the Grizzlies in the bubble. They came in holding the 8th seed, but went just 2-6 SU and now have to win two straight days to make the playoffs. But that’s all water under the bridge now. The Grizzlies took the Blazers to overtime in the first game here in Orlando, losing 140-135 after blowing a double digit lead. They were only a three-point underdog for that game. Granted, they still had Jaren Jackson at that point, but my numbers still say this matchup is close to a ‘pick ‘em.’ Portland is overvalued in this spot. 10* Memphis

7* Oakland (9:40 ET):  The A’s have been as good as anybody this year as there’s nothing phony about a 13-6 start that has them first in the AL West. They won their first nine games in August and while they then dropped the first two games to the Angels (our Game of the Week was on the Angels’ 6-0 victory Tuesday!), it was a bounce back effort on Wednesday with Oakland prevailing 8-4. I don’t see them having much trouble at all tonight with the Bay Area rival Giants. 

Over in the National League, the Giants have been one of the weaker teams as their -29 run differential is dead last. They’re coming off a 5-1 loss at Houston Wednesday as they’ve topped five runs just once in the last nine games. While they haven’t had much problem scoring at home thus far (6.3 runs per game!), they also are giving up 6.2 rpg here! That figures to start catching up with them. 

Both starters tonight are set for their fifth outing of 2020. Frankie Montas has a 3-1 TSR for Oakland with a 1.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in all four starts and just tossed seven scoreless innings against Oakland last Saturday. SF’s Johnny Cueto took a no-hit bid into the sixth Saturday against the Dodgers, but still ended up being charged with four runs for the second time in three starts. He has a 6.28 ERA during that time. Cueto hasn’t gone a full six innings yet either. 7* Oakland

7* Houston (9:10 ET): The Astros are another team that needs to pick it up as they’re currently third in the AL West with an 8-10 record. They did win Wednesday, 5-1 against San Francisco, to take two of three in that series after previously dropping five straight games - all on the road. Despite the losing record, Houston still can claim a positive run differential, which tells me things are not nearly as bad as they may appear. A weekend series against bottom-feeder Seattle should be just what the doctor ordered.

The Mariners are last in the division with a 7-13 record and have baseball’s worst run differential at -35. They’ve lost two straight (both to Texas) and like Houston had Thursday off. It was their first off day of the season. Still, that’s not enough to cure what ails them. Starter Yusei Kikuchi has poor numbers in his three starts this season (5.28 ERA, 1.304 WHIP) and against Houston (6.46 ERA in five career starts). Seattle’s bullpen (6.78 ERA) is also very bad and a contributing factor to why the team is allowing 5.8 rpg this season. 

We saw the bullpen woes come to the forefront yet again on Wednesday when the M’s blew a three-run lead in a 7-4 loss to Texas. The Astros’ lineup could very well see Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez in it for the first time of the season. We know that Framber Valdez will be starting and he’s off a strong outing against Oakland where he allowed just two runs (only one earned) in seven innings. 7* Houston

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians absolutely smoked the Tigers in 2019, going 18-1 against their AL Central rival. They hope for similar results in this series as they look to break out of the pack in the American League. Despite just losing a pair of games to the Cubs (where they scored only three runs total), the Tribe have a +11 run differential indicating that they are on track to be one of the eight playoff teams. 

The Tigers are actually ahead of the Indians in the standings right now with a 9-7 record, although they’ve given up more runs than they’ve allowed so far. A three-game sweep of lowly Pittsburgh has greatly inflated some of their offensive numbers. They scored 30 runs in that series while they’ve scored just 52 in the other 13 games. 1B CJ Cron is currently out of the lineup, leaving a massive hole at the cleanup spot. Without him, the Tigers just dropped two in a row to the White Sox. 

Cleveland needs to get its own offense going as they’ve been held to two runs or fewer in 12 of their 19 games. But they have also allowed a MLB-low 2.7 runs per game. (Only the Dodgers are also below 3.4). In many ways, the numbers from tonight’s starter Aaron Civale reflect the kind of season the Tribe is having. Civale has a 1-2 TSR despite a 2.84 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That’s better than his counterpart from Detroit this evening, Ivan Nova, who has a 2-1 TSR despite a 5.74 ERA and 1.532 WHIP. Nova allowed 5 ER his last start. 8* Cleveland

10* St. Louis (6:35 ET): The Blues are in desperate need of a win Friday, something they have not done going all the way back to March 11th. They dropped all three games in the round-robin format, causing them to drop from the 1-seed to the 4-seed. Then they lost Game 1 to the Canucks by a score of 5-2. They are the only team still playing yet to win a game in the bubble. With their backs against the wall, I like their chances of “circling the wagons” for Game 2 and picking up the victory. 

The disturbing trend for the Blues here in Edmonton has been their play in the third period. They have been outscored 9-0 in the 3P of the four games including 3-0 by the Canucks on Wednesday. Prior to that, they’d lost a game to Colorado at the buzzer, blew a multi-goal lead to Vegas and lost in a shootout to Dallas. So they’ve been in every game. It should be noted that the Blues have never lost more than four in a row all season. The last losing streak to go longer than that was in February of 2018. 

Goalie Jordan Binnington had an 8-2 record w/ a 1.78 goals against average and .937 save percentage off a loss in LY’s playoff run (which of course resulted in the Blues winning the Stanley Cup). Vancouver’s shooting percentage so far is 12.3%, which is really high and isn’t likely to continue. Knowing that teams who take the first two games go on to win the series over 86% of the time, the Blues basically have to win today. They will. 10* St. Louis

10* Over Canadiens/Flyers (3:05 ET): Top-seeded Philadelphia is not only 4-0 since play resumed, they’ve also gone Under in all four games. They’ve allowed a total of just four goals, exactly one in every game. Game 1 of this best of seven series saw them prevail 2-1 after answering a Montreal goal w/ one of their own just 16 seconds later. As hot as the respective goaltenders have been this postseason, expect regression from one or both here in Game 2, which I’ve got going Over the total. 

Philadelphia’s Carter Hart has been lights out in his three starts here in the bubble. He’s saved 84 of 87 shots, good for a .966 save percentage. That’s even better than Montreal’s Carey Price, who has started every game for Montreal (no surprise there) and has a .945 save percentage after stopping 155 of 164 shots. As impressive as those numbers are from the two goaltenders, I just don’t see them being maintained over the long playoff haul. 

The Flyers average 3.4 goals per game this season, but worrisome is that they allowed 3.3 outside of Philly. The Habs have allowed an average of 33.0 shots per game since the restart. I just feel that we’re due for an Over this afternoon. Each team’s power play is due to pick it up after notching a goal in Game 1. They’d previously been a combined 0 for 23 with the man advantage coming into this series. You know that won’t last. 10* Over Canadiens/Flyers

10* LA Dodgers (9:40 ET): The Dodgers, who I believe are the best team in baseball, will try and earn a split of this four-game series with San Diego. They won yesterday, 6-0, which obviously means they dropped the first two games. But sporting the league’s best run differential (+42) by a comfortable margin tells me that this team’s best days are ahead. Julio Urias, originally supposed to start Wednesday’s game, will now get the nod tonight. 

The Dodgers are allowing the fewest number of runs per game in the National League right now (just 2.8), but the biggest question seems to be their lack of offense. A four-run eighth made last night’s game seem like a bigger blowout than it actually was. However, I’m not concerned with the fact the Dodgers have managed only nine runs in the series. They are still among the league leaders with 96 runs scored in 19 games. 

What is surprising is that San Diego is neck and neck with the Dodgers in terms of number of runs scored this season. It’ll be up to Urias, who has a 1.76 ERA vs. the Padres, to slow them down. I think he will. Obviously, SD failed to score a single run last night. Chris Paddack is the Padres starter tonight. He has a 5.31 ERA in four career starts vs. LA. He’s also allowed a HR in three consecutive starts. If it gets down to the respective bullpens, then that’s a huge edge for the home team. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Milwaukee (4:05 ET): It’s all come down to this for the Grizzlies, who need a win to clinch a spot in Saturday’s play-in series. They still have a shot to move back up into 8th (meaning they’d need to win just once in the play-in series instead of twice), the spot they’d occupied going all the way back to January - that is until they lost Sunday to Boston. The Grizz are a poor 1-6 SU since the restart, have lost Jaren Jackson to injury and generally played very poorly in Orlando. Unfortunately (for them), I do not expect a win in this “must-win” game Friday. 

Now the Grizzlies have been given a bit of a “gift” in that Giannis Antetokounmpo has been suspended for head-butting Washington’s Mo Wagner. The Bucks still won that game, mind you, 126-113 as nine-point chalk. Giannis was likely to sit this game out anyway (rest) but note that if he did play, I’d have the Bucks as 12-point favorites! He’s an MVP candidate, but I’m not sure any one player is worth more than 12 pts to the spread. 

Of course, the Bucks could rest other players. But even so they scored 126 pts vs. Washington on Tuesday despite several absences. We really should not be that surprised about Memphis struggling here in the bubble. They’ve only been favored by one time. Full disclosure - we’re rooting for Phoenix to make the playoffs as our numbers say they are pretty clearly the 8th best team in the West. The Grizzlies simply have no momentum or confidence right now and probably deserve to lose this game. 8* Milwaukee 

10* Over Blue Jackets/Lightning (3:05 ET): The Lightning have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league over the last three years, but they’ve yet to see a single Over since the start, going 4-0 Under. Still I’m not sure that’s even on their minds right now after a 5OT win over Columbus in Game 1 Tuesday. That win was huge for TB as they were shockingly swept by the Blue Jackets in the 1st Rd of LY’s playoffs. Losing a game of that length would have been extremely confidence-crushing for the higher seed. 

Every Lightning game thus far has seen a total of five goals scored. They have three victories by a count of 3-2 and their lone defeat (to Philadelphia) was by a score of 4-1. But oddsmakers have dipped the O/U line down to 5.0 for Game 2 and that’s a real key for me. Despite not having either Steven Stamkos or Victor Hedman in the lineup, TB got off a playoff-record 88 shots in Game 1. As good as Joonas Korpisalo has been since the restart, being under that kind of fire will take it out of a goalie. 

Columbus, who has gone Under in four of six games so far, has basically played six games in the last four days. That’s brutal and you have to wonder if fatigue could start to become a factor at some point. Still, you shouldn’t discount a Blue Jackets side that’s scored 12 times in its last four games and has yet to lose B2B times. They had 60+ shots on goal in Game 1. The Over is 7-2-1 the L10 times the Blue Jackets have played on one day’s rest. 10* Over Blue Jackets/Lightning

10* Under Clippers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): I’ll try this again, despite the fact that Nuggets’ red-hot shooting didn’t subside in the last game, it actually got even hotter. They shot 58.4% from the field Monday against the Lakers, including a somewhat insane 13 of 23 on three-point attempts, yet still lost the game 124-121! There is simply no way Denver will shoot that well again here, a game which figures to have a little more “playoff-like intensity.” 

It is very likely that the Clippers will end up as the 2-seed and the Nuggets the 3-seed in the Western Conference. However, if Denver wins here, things would get interesting as it would come down to the final game. (They need to win out and have the Clippers lose out to take the 2-seed). The Clippers, who have gone Over in four straight themselves, lost 129-120 to Brooklyn on Sunday despite 39 points from Kawhi Leonard, who sat out the team’s surprising win against Portland the day prior. Sunday was Paul George’s turn to sit out. Both are expected back here. Patrick Beverley’s status is unknown, but I’m expecting better defense from the Clips tonight. 

Denver is the only team in the bubble to have gone Over in every game. I look for the streak to end tonight as they should start to see a sharp decline in shooting. I’m not as high on the Nuggets as they only have the West’s 7th best efficiency rating. It was a similar story last year when they somehow finished second in the standings. This year’s team is weaker based on efficiency and scoring differential.  10* Under Clippers/Nuggets