10* Portland (7:05 ET): Playing in the Western Conference (as opposed to the East) can certainly have its disadvantages. Just look at Portland, who is nine games under .500 (admittedly not good!), yet buried in 12th place. Orlando, who is six games below .500, would be a playoff team in the East as they are currently in 7th place. These teams were even more closely aligned record-wise, before recent form kicked in. The Blazers are just 1-6 SU and ATS their L7 games while Orlando has won 5 of 7 and covered 4 straight. 

Of course, Damian Lillard being out indefinitely has literally and figuratively hurt the Blazers. You can tie his groin injury to when the team began to falter. Yet, it’s not a lack of offense that’s killing the Blazers right now. They are giving up an average of 121.7 PPG in their last six losses. They gave up 129 to a lousy Atlanta team Saturday night, which may have been rock bottom for the season.

Fortunately for the Blazers, Orlando comes in averaging just 105.3 PPG, which has them near the bottom of the league in that regard. The Magic’s 43.8 FG% is also at the bottom of the league. In Lillard’s absence, Hassan Whiteside has picked up the slack. Not only is Whiteside averaging 14.2 rebounds per game this year, he leads the league w/ 172 blocked shots. I look for this to be a close game. Orlando doesn’t blow many teams out. They are just 11-17-2 ATS at home and 8-16 SU vs. the Western Conference. 10* Portland

8* Anaheim (8:05 ET): This is not a good time to be backing New Jersey as the last place team from the Metro will be playing its third road game in four nights as well as the second game of a back to back. Tonight marks the end of the dreaded “Southern California swing” as the Devils have previously lost in San Jose and Los Angeles and now head to Anaheim. The Ducks await where they’ll be fresh off two consecutive wins, the last one coming against Pittsburgh. I haven’t backed Anaheim much this season, but this is a great spot to do so. 

The Ducks, like the Devils, won’t be making the playoffs this season. They are tied with the Sharks for 6th in the Pacific at 60 points. But it’s important to note that the team we’re getting on the ice tonight doesn’t necessarily resemble the one we’ve seen for the balance of the season. This was an active team at the trade deadline with seven trades made in total, six of them on Monday. The newcomers are paying dividends so far as they led the way in Friday’s upset of Pittsburgh. 

Making the situation even worse for New Jersey is the fact last night’s game went into overtime. It was their second straight OT loss, so you have to wonder how much they have left in the tank for this one. Despite beating Anaheim (at home) back in December, the Devils have lost 9 of the last 12 head to head meetings. The new-look Ducks get their revenge here as they take care of a NJ club that is just 1-5 SU if they went to OT the previous day. 8* Anaheim

10* Washington (8:05 ET): The Capitals have gotten a huge break w/ their chief rival (Pittsburgh) losing six in a row. Their next closest competition is now actually the Flyers, who are three points behind. That’s obviously still a really tight margin and Thursday’s 3-0 loss in Winnipeg did the Caps no favors. But in the previous two games, they scored a total of nine goals. While those were both at home, there’s actually zero dropoff in terms of goals scored at home vs. on the road for this club.

Minnesota is also off a shutout in its last game, though theirs was a dominant 5-0 win over Columbus. It was the Wild’s third straight victory as they are trying just to get into the playoffs over in the Western Conference. The way things stand now, they are one point back of a three-way tie for the final Wild Card. The current stretch is among the very best we’ve seen all season from them, but I’m not convinced it can be sustained. They’ve recently beaten a Columbus team that is really struggling - twice - and Detroit who is the worst team in the league. 10* Washington

10* Louisville (6:00 ET): #11 Louisville has a chance to be in first place all by itself w/ a win tonight. That’s thanks to Florida State getting upset Saturday. But with the Cardinals having been swept by FSU this season, that means they’ll need to finish at least a game ahead. I look for them to take no prisoners Sunday in this matchup w/ Va Tech. L’ville is off its second straight loss to FSU, which occurred Monday in Tallahassee. They’ve had plenty of time to “stew” over that 82-67 defeat. 

Virginia Tech has had little to no success throughout this ACC campaign. The Hokies have dropped eight of their last nine games, the only win coming at home vs. Pitt (were three-point favorites). They just lost Wednesday in Blacksburg, to Virginia, 56-53 as a three-point favorite. They’ve now failed to cover 10 of their last 11 games. 

Louisville has won and covered three straight in this ACC rivalry including 72-64 in Blacksburg in their only meeting last season. With almost a week to prepare and coming off a loss, I expect a really strong effort here. They’ve had two extra days to prepare compared to Va Tech. It’s also “Senior Day” (final home game). Yes, they must overcome the injury to Malik Williams, but the Cardinals are 16-1 SU at home this season, winning by almost 17 PPG. 10* Louisville

10* Minnesota (3:30 ET): I’ve got a ton of respect for Dallas and actually think they’re much better than their current WL record, which has them 7th in the Western Conference. In terms of both point differential and net efficiency rating, they are 5th in the entire league! However, with a questionable Luka Doncic, I am not about to lay points on the road w/ this team. It’s not just Doncic’s questionable status either. The Mavs can be wildly inconsistent (as they showed in a recent loss at Atlanta).

Dallas also lost in Miami Friday, which isn’t that big of a deal considering how good the Heat are at home. But the Mavs did give up 126 points as lack of defense continues to be an issue for them. Tonight certainly has the potential to be another game where they give up plenty of points. Minnesota has scored at least 123 in each of its last three games. If they can get there again, you have to like them at home in this price range.

Of course, the T’wolves are giving up plenty of points themselves. But they did just win at Miami, something Dallas failed to do. Now the T’wolves also just lost in Dallas and gave up 139 pts in doing so. I just think at home we’re going to get a better effort from them. As we saw last night w/ our winning call on Golden State, any team can win on a given night in this league. 10* Minnesota

10* Over Creighton/St. John’s (12:00 ET): Very quietly, Creighton is a team peaking at the right time. While the Bluejays may not be garnering much national attention, they have made a pretty clear case to be considered one of the top 15 teams in America and perhaps the best in the Big East. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games including a current five-game win streak where they’ve covered the spread in every game. The primary reason for their success is an offense which ranks 5th nationally in efficiency. 

St. John’s isn’t having as much success as Creighton this season, but they can still score. Especially when they play at home. The Johnnies are averaging 77.2 PPG here, but that hasn’t done them much good lately as they are coming off losses at both Seton Hall and Villanova. Over the L5 games, the Red Storm have permitted their opponents to shoot 48.4% from the field. Creighton is obviously going to present a very tough challenge considering they come in averaging 78.2 PPG for the season.

I’ve established that both teams are capable of scoring plenty of points on any given night. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the last time they met, which was back on Feb 8th in Omaha. Creighton won that game 94-82 as an 8.5-pt favorite and it obviously sailed well past the total. I know it’s been “tough sledding” of late for the Johnnie’s w/o leading scorer Heron, but they’ll do enough offensively here for another Over. 10* Over Creighton/St. John’s

10* New Mexico (10:00 ET): Utah State is trying to make sure that TWO Mountain West teams get in the NCAA Tournament (San Diego State the other) as they have won six in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. But while the last 10 days have seen the Aggies prevail by scores of 78-58 (over Wyoming) and 94-56 (San Jose State), both of those games were at home. They also were against the two weakest teams in the conference. Tonight they visit Albuquerque where the home team has lost only three times. 

When it hosted San Diego State back on January 29th, New Mexico was undefeated at home (13-0). They were blown out in that game, 85-57, and have subsequently nosedived with six more losses in the last seven games. They are now 14-3 SU at home and the reason for the downturn has to do with injuries and players leaving the program altogether. Still, you should expect the remaining Lobos to “show up” for this final game of the regular season. 

The Lobos still average 83.2 PPG at home. The game vs. San Diego State marked the only time they were getting more than a single point here in “The Pit.” I think Utah State is due for an “off-night” here as they get ready for the Mt West Tournament, an event where they must at least make the final. They’re just 3-6 ATS on the road. 10* New Mexico

10* Golden State (9:05 ET): The nightmare season for Golden State will finally get some positive news tomorrow when former MVP Steph Curry makes his return to the lineup. But first is a game tonight at Phoenix, who just lost as a nine-point favorite last night. Curry’s return couldn’t come at a more needed time for the Warriors, who have lost eight in a row and routinely been blown out in doing so. But one of their two ATS wins in those L8 games came on this floor 17 days ago. Tonight’s spread is strangely larger. 

I realize the Warriors have been very bad since picking up the ATS win at Phoenix with the last four losses all coming by 14 points or more. But the Suns are not very familiar with this kind of price range and last night showed that as they lost outright (here at home) to a struggling Pistons squad. The Suns are now just 3-10 ATS their L13 games overall and they’ve dropped B2B games SU here at home. Going back to MLK Day, Phoenix has been a favorite just five times and lost four of those games outright! 

The Suns haven’t been good on the second night of a back to back either, going just 4-6 SU/ATS in that situation this season. Furthermore, they are just 11-20 SU and 11-19-1 ATS in home games. In addition to covering at Phoenix earlier this month, the Warriors also beat the Suns right after X-Mas. 10* Golden State

10* Florida (6:05 ET): This is an incredibly important game for the Panthers. They just lost to Toronto on Thursday (5-3 here at home), leaving them four points back of third place in the Atlantic. Of course, the other way the Panthers can make the playoffs is the Wild Card. But in that race, they are competing with a litany of teams from the Metro. While also four points back of the WC, Florida would need to jump THREE teams to get that final spot. Needless to say, getting the two points tonight is a virtual “must.”

Florida’s opponent Saturday is in last place in its division. That would be Chicago, over in the Central. The Blackhawks did pull off a “real stunner” the other night when they went to Tampa Bay and prevailed 5-2 as a +195 ML underdog. But don’t let that one win confuse you. The Blackhawks have still won just 3 of their previous 12 games and it’s been over a month since they last posted B2B victories.

In that loss to Toronto on Thursday, the Panthers blew a 2-goal lead. Given the stakes that were involved, that has to be terribly disappointing. While there’s been little in the way of home ice advantage here in Sunrise, the Panthers do average a healthy 3.6 goals per game here. The fact Florida has lost all five home games since the All-Star Break will have them supremely motivated here. 10* Florida

10* Jordan Griffin (5:55 ET): This is a three-round fight in the featherweight division (145 lbs). It takes place on the preliminary portion of the card and can be viewed if you have ESPN+.

Griffin has fought twice under the UFC banner and yet to emerge victorious. However, both fights were exciting and could have gone either way. Without question, Griffin is an aggressive fighter that looks to “push the action.” He’s 17-7 overall in his MMA career and a more proven commodity than his opponent Saturday. The fact he’s yet to have his hand raised in UFC competition will certainly have him motivated here. The “Native Psycho” had won 9 of his 10 fights prior to becoming an official member of the UFC roster and has not been stopped since 2014. 

Brown, like Griffin, got his spot via Dana White’s “Contender Series.” He too is an aggressive fighter. There is a good chance this fight does not go the distance, but regardless if it does, you can look for Griffin to have his hand raised. Unlike Griffin, Brown has not fought on a UFC card proper. He’s been stopped in each of his last two losses. Despite the relatively close odds for this fight, I see a significant edge for Griffin. 10* Jordan Griffin

10* Over West Ham/Southampton (10:00 AM ET): West Ham United is where you don’t want to be and that’s among the bottom three in the table, meaning they are in danger of relegation right now. Monday’s 3-2 loss to Liverpool marked the eighth consecutive match where the Hammers failed to emerge victorious. Four of those matches (0W 6L 2D) have seen them fail to score a goal while in two others they managed only one. But the multi-score effort from Monday provides some hope for more goal scoring Saturday.

Southampton put an end to its own four-match run without a win last Saturday with a 2-0 decision over Aston Villa. Keeping a clean sheet is not something you expect from the Saints. After all, they’ve conceded 48 times this season, matching West Ham for the third most goals allowed in the entire EPL. So by that standard, there’s every reason to expect at least one of these teams will score twice on Saturday. 

In fact, West Ham can claim four consecutive Premier League victories over Southampton and they have scored nine times in the process. West Ham is a desperate side and playing at home. A breakout seems logical given the daunting schedule they just faced, which included matches w/ Liverpool, Man City & Leicester City. At the same time, the Saints have only drawn a blank once in 13 games in all competitions and that was away to Liverpool. 10* Over West Ham/Southampton

10* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:35 ET): Charlotte picked up a rare win Wednesday by beating the Knicks 107-101. Despite that, and the fact they pulled off three additional upsets surrounding the All-Star Break, things remain rather dire for the Hornets as they own the 4th worst point differential in the league and have dropped 21 of their last 28 games overall. This is a bad basketball team, a point we made abundantly clear last Saturday when we faded them at home vs. Kyrie Irving-less Brooklyn. The Hornets lost 115-86. 

Toronto, on the other hand, is playing great. The reigning NBA Champs did just get humbled here at home by Milwaukee (Eastern Conf Finals preview?), but before that they had won 17 of 18 games. Interestingly enough, the Raptors were held under 100 points in the only two games they have lost since mid-January. Clearly, we don’t see that happening here as Charlotte gives up 110 PPG and are a poor 25th in defensive efficiency. It’s a virtual lock that the Raptors will improve upon the 35.2% shooting we saw vs. the Bucks. 

The champs are averaging 116.5 PPG at home this season, so what happened Tuesday vs. Milwaukee should be considered a total anomaly. It was a game between the two top teams in defensive efficiency as well. This one should be a lot different. Charlotte may rank near the bottom of the league in PPG, but I see them scoring enough to help send this game Over the total. Seven of the last eight times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. It was a 112-110 Toronto win in Charlotte last month. 10* Over Hornets/Raptors

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): If you presume that both Washington and Pittsburgh are “locks” to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs (probably true), then that means only one other team from the Metro is guaranteed a postseason spot. Now at least two more are likely to make it, but this is a crowded field with five teams currently separated by five points. Philadelphia currently sits in the coveted third place position in the division (behind Wash & Pit) and is actually just one point out of second place. They host the 7th place Rangers in an all-important matchup Friday.

The Flyers have won four straight to vault into third. But they are actually NOT the hottest team in the division right now, the Rangers are. NY has won five straight (and 9 of 10), but as you can see it hasn’t done them much good as they haven’t moved up in the standings at all. That tells you that they really hadn’t been a great team prior. The Flyers have definitely been more consistent this year. 

Several key advantages exist for Philly tonight. One is that the Rangers played in Montreal last night. This will be NY’s third road game in four nights. The Flyers have been one of the league’s best home teams this year, going 22-5-4. That’s the fewest number of home losses in the league. They are also 7-2 SU the L9 head to head meetings w/ the Rangers including 5-1 win in the only previous meeting this season. 10* Philadelphia

10* Davidson (7:00 ET): Dayton has emerged as a national force this season by winning 26 of its 28 games. The Flyers currently rank #4 in the country and unlike a San Diego State team that just lost its first game this season, I’ve got this team more in line with the pollsters. Right now, the only other team in the country w/o a conference loss is New Mexico State and they play in the rather hideous Big West. 

I’m not sure what it says about the rest of the A-10 that no one has been able to beat the Flyers yet. What’s interesting here is that Dayton was NOT even the preseason pick to win the conference. They were pegged for third behind VCU and Davidson. The latter is who comes calling Friday and lately the Wildcats have FINALLY begun to flash the form that made them a choice to finish ahead of Dayton this year. They have won 8 of 11 including a very impressive 74-49 beatdown of LaSalle earlier this week.

Looking at the only three games Davidson has lost over the last month or so, one was a 4OT game and another was decided by a single point. You’d have to go all the way back to early December to find a game that the Wildcats lost by more points than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. While it’s been a disappointing season for them, this will be treated as the “Game of the Year.” Dayton’s last four wins have all been by single digits. 10* Davidson

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors get a break here as LeBron James is sitting this one out for the Lakers due to a sore groin. Certainly, the Dubs will take any break they can get at this point as they enter Thursday w/ the worst record in the league at 12-46 SU. It has been a precipitous fall for the team that has represented the Western Conference in each of the L5 NBA Finals. That’s thanks to injuries, but hopefully now they can take advantage of an opponent missing its best player.

We shouldn’t need to go through what James means to the Lakers. With the decline of Golden State, the Lakers have taken their spot atop the Western Conference w/ James playing in 54 out of a possible 56 games. LeBron matched a season-high w/ 40 points in Tuesday’s win over New Orleans. Anthony Davis is still bothered by a sore left elbow. The bottom line here is that I’m banking on the Lakers not taking this game very seriously.

Despite what I think the mindset will be for LA tonight, we’re still able to grab a boatload of points. The Warriors are at home where they only lost by five to the Lakers earlier this month and that was with LeBron on the court. Home or away, Golden State has not done well recently (losing seven straight), but this is still a prideful bunch that knows its playing on national TV and has a chance to “steal one” against a team taking the floor without arguably the best player in the league. The Warriors have covered both times this year when they’ve gotten double digits at home. 10* Golden State

10* Over Stars/Bruins (7:35 ET): I’ve been having a lot of success betting NHL totals recently as Tuesday’s Over pick (CHI-STL) saw a combined 11 goals scored while last night’s 10* Total of the Week (and Under) ended up as a 3-0 shutout (Vegas over Edmonton). Of course, there was also last Friday’s 10* Total of the Month on Under Nashville-Chicago, which saw the teams enter overtime tied at 1-1. Tonight there looks to be a high-scoring game on the horizon between Dallas and Boston. Take the Over in this one. 

Boston has led the Atlantic Division basically the entire season. But with Tampa Bay catching fire over the last month or so, the race for 1st place (and probably the President’s Trophy as well) has gotten a lot tighter. The Bruins’ lead is down to five points and was even tighter recently. They’ve lost B2B games, but have been fortunate that the Lightning have lost three straight. The Bruins are very impressive at home w/ just three regulation losses here all season. They average 3.4 goals per game on home ice. 

Note how low the total is here. That’s because these are the two top teams in terms of fewest goals allowed in the league. Still, that doesn’t mean the # should be this low. For instance, Boston has given up 14 goals in just the last two games including a stunning NINE in a loss to Vancouver last Saturday. Dallas just scored four goals by itself in its last game (at Carolina) but also gave up five in a recent loss to St. Louis. Both sides are capable of “going off” offensively and it’s not often you get an O/U line of 5.0 anymore. 10* Over Stars/Bruins

10* Purdue (7:00 ET): Despite an overall record of .500 (14-14 SU), Purdue’s NCAA Tournament hopes aren’t done yet. But it’s getting to be “do or die” time for the Boilermakers, who not only need a strong finish to the regular season, but a strong showing in the Big 10 Tournament as well. They’ve lost four in a row, two of those coming as home favorites. But they’ll have many more chances to show that they’re better than several of the Big 10’s presumed NCAA Tourney teams, including here as they face the last time they beat.

It was back on Feb 8th that Purdue went to Indiana and won 74-62 as a three-point dog. That was the night Bobby Knight made his long-awaited return to Bloomington. At the time, it seemed like the Boilermakers were finally ready to “turn the corner” for good. They were coming off an impressive shellacking of Iowa (104-68!) here in West Lafayette just three days prior. But things haven’t gone their way since, including an ugly 71-63 home loss to Michigan on Sunday where they shot just 28% in the 1H.

IU has won three of its last four since Purdue handed them what was (at the time) a 4th straight loss. But I still consider Purdue the better team here, especially at home. This is the first time the Boilermakers have lost B2B home games in six years. Despite the .500 SU record, I still consider them to be just on the outskirts of the top 25 teams in the country. It’s been a massively disappointing season so far for Matt Painter’s team, but they’ve got a chance to rewrite the script against an Indiana team that is just 8-23 SU its L31 road games including 2-6 (SU and ATS) this season. 10* Purdue

10* Under Oilers/Golden Knights (10:38 ET): It's a really tight race at the top of the Pacific Division right now. Vegas, who has won six in a row, currently leads with 76 points. But both Vancouver and Edmonton are only two points behind. Tonight, the Golden Knights host one of those teams (Edmonton) in a very important matchup. But who wins here is of little importance to me as I see a total that’s been set too high for such a high-stakes battle. 

The offense has come alive for Vegas during this six-game win streak as they’ve scored at least 5 times in four of the six games. That includes each of the last three with a 6-5 win over Anaheim on Sunday (in OT) being the most recent decision. Tonight is the start of what looks to be a very favorable homestand for the Golden Knights. But we don’t see the recent level of goal scoring continuing. Also, the team is 5-1 Under the previous six times they’ve been off a game where they allowed 5+ goals. 

Edmonton lost 4-3 last night in Anaheim, also an overtime game, which would seemingly put them at a disadvantage tonight. But note the Oilers are a perfect 6-0 this season playing in the second night of a back to back. However, over a longer term, they are just 4-10 SU after going to OT the previous day. Last night’s game was 3-2 late in the 3rd period (Edmonton trailed) so it easily could have stayed Under. This one will as that’s how four of the five all-time meetings in Vegas have gone. 10* Under Oilers/Golden Knights

10* Missouri (9:00 ET): I happen to think the SEC isn’t very good this year. Other than Kentucky, there’s no team I feel is a strong bet to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament (and the Wildcats are far from a lock to do so themselves). Neither of the two teams in question here are going to even make the NCAA Tournament, but it’s a matchup where there’s definitely value as the last place team in the conference is getting far too much respect here.

Vanderbilt is last in the SEC with a 1-13 SU conference record. That one win was a real shocker as they upset LSU (who was unbeaten in conference play at the time), here in Nashville. However, other than that, this season has been a disaster for the Commodores. They are being outscored by 11.4 PPG in SEC play and have lost their last five games by a pretty similar margin. I see no reason to expect them to win tonight. 

Missouri isn’t exactly a world-beater but this spread basically dictates that all we need from them tonight is a SU win. The Tigers had covered four in a row before losing to Arkansas last Saturday. Mizzou has had a lot more success in the SEC this year than has Vandy, beating the likes of Arkansas (first time around), Auburn and Florida, all of whom could be NCAA Tournament teams. They also nearly upset LSU on the road. Lay the points here. 10* Missouri

10* Washington (7:05 ET): Over the previous few days, I’ve experienced success by both taking and fading Brooklyn. Of course they just lost Kyrie Irving for the year, so fading the Nets seems logical right now. But not last Saturday when I said they were the right side in Charlotte and sure enough came away with a 29-point victory. But facing a much better Orlando team Monday, they lost 115-113 as a 3.5-point favorite. So what’s a bettor to do Wednesday when the Nets host Washington? 

The Wizards fall somewhere in between the Magic and Hornets in my power rankings, so that makes the decision on how to answer the question above a little murkier. Three straight losses since the All-Star Break have done the Wiz no favors. But Bradley Beal has gone for 50+ (points) in B2B games. That the Wizards have lost both is somewhat incredible as Beal is the first player in league history to go for 50+ in B2B games since Kobe Bryant did it four straight times back in ‘07. 

Brooklyn blew a 19-pt lead Monday, the second time in less than a week they blew a lead of that size and lost. It’s been a profitable February for them (6-2-1 ATS) but they have just two road wins and one was by a single point. They lost here in D.C. back on Feb 1, 113-107, and are now just 10-17 SU on the road for the season. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS this season when off 3+ SU losses. They have a red hot Beal while the Nets just lost Irving. Washington is 14-2 SU its L16 games vs. Brooklyn. 10* Washington

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): It’s been hard times for the Warriors this season as injuries to Steph Curry and Klay Thompson had them derailed from the very start. They have gone from being the best team in the league over the last five seasons to having the worst record in 2019-20, which is as precipitous a fall as I’ve seen in this league in a long time. But I’m still unsure that they should be getting this many points at home against the Kings, a team that just isn’t favored on the road very often.

The Kings didn’t need any points to defeat the Clippers on Saturday. The 112-103 outright upset (were +9) was the Kings’ second win in a row and fifth in the last seven games. That said, they are still 10 games below .500 and unlikely to make the playoffs. They are just 3-3 STRAIGHT UP in the road favorite role and my guess is this could end up being the most points they have to lay in any road game all season. 

The Warriors have lost six in a row coming into tonight’s game, so they should be hungry for a win. No Marvin Bagley III means it will be tough for Sacramento to keep winning and I think they are prone for a letdown here after upsetting the Clippers. I just don’t think the spread should be this high. 10* Golden State

10* Over Blackhawks/Blues (8:05 ET): The last place and first place teams in the Central meet in an old Norris Division rivalry matchup. St. Louis, after losing five in a row, has circled the wagons to win its last four games while conceding just two goals! Chicago, as you’d expect from a last place club, has dropped three of four and scored just eight goals in the process. But I believe this game will be higher scoring than expected.

10* Baylor (8:00 ET): Pretty simple here as Baylor is looking to bounce back from its loss Saturday to Kansas. That loss snapped the Bears’ 23-game win streak and dropped them from #1 in the polls. Still though, there’s plenty to celebrate here in Waco. This remains a very likely #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and they could end up as the #1 overall seed in the field of 68. 

Kansas State is the team that finds itself in the unenviable position of facing Baylor tonight. This is a case of “wrong place, wrong time” for the Wildcats and to make matters worse they come in on a seven-game losing streak. The most points they’ve scored in any of those games is 67, ironically against Baylor, but the issues scoring are likely to really bite this team tonight w/ Baylor allowing just 56.8 PPG at home.

Provided there’s no letdown amongst the players, Baylor should easily roll in this one. Kansas State has major issues scoring (60.5 PPG away from Manhattan) and has just one win away from home all season. The Wildcats’ current form doesn’t inspire any confidence that they can get the job done here and this one has the potential to get “ugly” in a hurry. Baylor is #2 in the country in defensive efficiency and has proven it can win games by large margins even w/o large production from its leading scorers. 10* Baylor

7* Washington (7:05 ET): After briefly falling out of first place in the Metro, the Capitals have climbed their way back to the top, thanks to a three-game losing streak by Pittsburgh. But it’s still only a two-point edge over the Pens, meaning tonight’s home game vs. Winnipeg is quite critical. Maybe not as critical as Sunday’s 5-3 win here over Pittsburgh, but the Caps do need this one. Fortunately for them, this will be the Jets’ third road game in four nights. 

Winnipeg is just trying to get into the postseason field. Right now they find themselves one point behind the two Wild Card teams, Calgary and Arizona, who are in the other division. The Jets’ chances of finishing third in their own division are rather small at this point. So it’s going to have to be the Wild Card, if they are to make it into the playoffs. But losses at Philadelphia and Buffalo over the weekend certainly didn’t help. The Jets managed only three goals in the two losses, a far cry from the number they scored (11) in the previous two contests. 

While Washington did lose four in a row before beating Pittsburgh Sunday, I’m quite confident they get the job done here. They remain one of the elite teams in the league and this just isn’t a great spot for Winnipeg to pull an upset. Not only are the Jets just 1-10 SU in the third game of a “3 (games) in 4 nights situation,” but they are also 2-9 SU their L11 times as a ML dog. 7* Washington

10* Over Hornets/Pacers (7:05 ET): Charlotte is a team that I have very little regard for right now. I’ve been pretty steadfast in this mindset, which is why I went “all in” against them Saturday with a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER release on Brooklyn. The final score of that game was 115-86 (in the Nets’ favor) as Charlotte’s per game point differential for the season dropped to -7.4. That’s 4th worst in the league. 

There seems to be a very good chance Indiana will finish 6th in the Eastern Conference as they simply lack the kind of home court dominance we see from the the two teams (Miami, Philadelphia) that are ahead of them in the standings. But it was the road that was unkind to the Pacers Sunday as they were severely routed 127-81 by Toronto. That putrid effort saw them held to 32.6% shooting for the game. It was easily their worst margin of defeat this season.

Indiana hasn’t shot well in either of its games since the Break. Despite sustaining some injuries, you have to figure they’ll see their shooting improve upon returning home tonight. This is a team that normally shoots the ball pretty well (47.4%) and they average almost 110 PPG. As for Charlotte, they too shot poorly in their last game and I expect improvement there. This is a really low total by 2020 NBA standards. 10* Over Hornets/Pacers

10* Under LaSalle/Davidson (7:00 ET): Davidson had certainly hoped to be a bigger factor in the A-10 this year, but like everyone else in the conference, the Wildcats are looking up at Dayton. Still though, that hasn’t stopped them from playing better of late. Davidson has won 7 of its last 10 games with one of the losses coming in 4OT’s and another coming by a single point. Of particular interest to this selection is the fact the L4 games have all gone Over the number. 

LaSalle went 2-0 last week including an upset win at GW on Sunday. The Explorers entered their last game as three-point pups and came away w/ a 72-62 win in what was (sadly) maybe their most impressive showing in conference play so far. Prior to last week, LaSalle was just 2-10 SU in A-10 games. Their three conference wins besides the one at GW have come at the expense of Fordham & St. Joe’s, who are a combined 2-26 SU in conference play and tied for last. 

I mentioned earlier that Davidson’s L4 games have all gone Over. Well, the last one would NOT have done so had it not been for OT. There was also another game in the streak that saw them sink a season-high 18 three-pointers (against Fordham), which won’t happen again anytime soon. Davidson is actually a good defensive team (allowing just 61.1 PPG at home) and w/ LaSalle shooting only 40% in conference play, this looks like a pretty clear Under to me. 10* Under LaSalle/Davidson

8* New York (8:00 ET): It normally would take a lot for me to consider the Knicks as a viable play, but in this case we are getting “a lot” … a lot of points that is! There haven’t been too many games this season where NY has gotten more points than they are here. On the flip side of that, this could end up being the most points Houston has had to lay in any game this season. The Rockets do come in on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, but two of the victories were by less of a margin than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight.

The Knicks have played just one game since the All-Star Break and it was a 106-98 home loss to Indiana. They actually finished with a higher overall FG% than the Pacers (43.2 to 40.6), but were ultimately undone by the fact Indiana made more free throws than NY even attempted! I should point out that prior to the Break, the Knicks started February on a 4-0 SU/ATS run with three of those wins coming on the road. One (at Indiana) even came as a DD dog. 

The Rockets are just 7-5 STRAIGHT UP when coming into a game on a win streak of at least three games. While there’s no debate as to who the better team is in this matchup, laying this many points is not something I’d really advise doing in any NBA matchup. Let’s not forget that Houston does not defend particularly well. 8* New York

8* Orlando (7:35 ET): One of these teams is very likely to end up as the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Brooklyn currently occupies the spot and I backed them in a major way Saturday when they went to Charlotte as a three-point road favorite. They won 115-86, which was quite the statement considering Kyrie Irving is now done for the year. But remember who they were playing. Much of the basis for my play on the Nets was the Hornets are one of the worst teams in the entire league. 

Orlando is 24-32 SU, which puts them 2.5 games back of Brooklyn. But they are a fairly safe 3.5 games up on the 9th place team in the East. This Magic team does not seem to be as strong as last season and their first game after the All-Star Break was a major disappointment as they lost 122-106 at home to Dallas. But the Mavs are a really good team. The last time the Magic faced the Nets, which was in Orlando, they won 101-89. As will be the case the rest of the way, Brooklyn did not have Kyrie Irving suit up in that game. 

The Nets have enjoyed a profitable February, going 6-0-1 ATS the last seven games. But they’ve been underdogs for more than half of those contests and lost two straight up. While I did play them as a favorite Saturday, again, that was all about fading a very bad Charlotte team. Orlando is going to make the playoffs and actually leads the league in PPG allowed (105.7)! I think they’ll defend well enough to at least get the cover tonight and most likely the outright win! 8* Orlando

8* Cleveland (7:00 ET): For my first NBA selection after the All-Star Break, I chose to fade the Heat as a road favorite. The move worked beautifully as the Heat lost outright in Atlanta. Now there were clear signs that might happen. Miami has one of the strongest home vs. road splits in the league right now as they are 23-3 SU at home and just 13-17 SU on the road. Tonight they are again laying points against one of the league’s weakest teams and I’ll be fading here too. 

Cleveland has a rather eventful All-Star Break as HC John Beilein, who was never a good fit, was let go. The team responded by winning its first game under interim J.B. Bickerstaff, 113-108, in a come from behind effort at Washington. Then came a loss to the Heat. But that 124-105 setback was in Miami. I can’t say the Cavs are a great home team, but they’ve obviously got a much better shot at beating the Heat at home than on the road. This is also Bickerstaff’s 1st game at home, so expect an inspired effort.

Miami has dominated Cleveland through the years, winning the last eight matchups. All three wins this year have been by double digits. But the Cavs players obviously wanted the coaching change and should play better as a result. The difference in the Heat’s play at home (+10.9 PPG) vs. the road (-2.9 PPG) cannot possibly be overstated. While it was against Atlanta, the Cavs did win the last time they played here at home. Look for this to be tighter than expected. 8* Cleveland

10* Texas (7:00 ET): West Virginia has a problem winning on the road. An overtime loss at TCU Saturday dropped them to just 3-7 SU and ATS in “true” road games. It was their 5th consecutive loss away from Morgantown and three of those have come as favorites. As good as the Mountaineers are at home, I just can’t trust them laying points on the road right now and will play accordingly tonight as they visit Austin. 

Texas is coming off a 2-0 week, including a win over TCU. While the Longhorns got the Horned Frogs here at home, they did have to travel to Kansas State for Saturday’s win and Manhattan is not an easy place to win. Even more impressive is that the 70-59 upset (UT was +5) was a lot more lopsided than the final score showed. The Longhorns led 42-23 at the half and were never really threatened. 

To say Texas is “thinking revenge” here would be putting it mildly. They lost by 38 up in Morgantown last month, a result I’m sure HC Shaka Smart and his players have not forgotten. As noted above, WVU is obviously a much different team on the road. They are just 1-4 SU/ATS their L5 games overall. The Longhorns allow just 60.8 PPG in Austin and have allowed less than that in three of their last four games overall. Believe it or not, WVU is just one game up on Texas in the Big 12 standings. The Longhorns are getting career-best production out of Courtney Ramey right now. 10* Texas

10* Portland (9:05 ET): The Blazers have lost Damian Lillard (groin) for an indefinite period of time and he’s not the only one currently sitting on the bench due to injury. But I believe this team still has enough to defeat the sorry Pistons, who have lost five in a row as well as 10 of their last 12 games. Portland is still very much in play for that 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and isn’t about to let a chance like this slip by. 

Detroit, meanwhile, is rapidly seeing its already slim playoff hopes get even slimmer. Even with only six teams in the East over .500, the Pistons are six games back of the final playoff spot. They’ve averaged only 97 PPG during the five-game losing streak and remember they don’t have Blake Griffin. A 20-point home loss to Milwaukee on Thursday was the latest setback as the team fell to 9-26 SU in games where it is an underdog. 

Portland is a disappointing 15-12 SU at home this year, but finds itself laying a short number here. After losing three straight games to teams they are battling for that 8-seed (including two to New Orleans), look for the Blazers to blow through the Pistons tonight as they’ve had enough of the losing. Even without Lillard, they still scored 115 points in their last game. 10* Portland

10* Under Celtics/Lakers (3:30 ET): This long-standing rivalry is certainly relevant again with the Celtics in third place in the East and the Lakers leading the West. Boston lost just once in its L10 games and that was at Houston before the Break. Since the 2nd half of the season began, they’ve beaten the Clippers 141-133 and T’wolves 127-117. As you might guess from those two scores, both games easily went Over. 

The Lakers have won four in a row overall to solidify their lead atop the Western Conference standings. They’ve played only one game since the Break and it was a 117-105 win over Memphis (who was in the second night of a back to back) Friday night. During the win streak, LA has scored a minimum of 117 pts every time. They’ve also covered the spread in the last three games. 

While both sides have scored plenty recently, don’t go discounting their ability to play defense. The Lakers are giving up only 104.8 PPG at home, which is a really impressive number for 2020. Opponents shoot just 43.6% when they visit LA. Believe it or not, the Celtics allow a slightly lower FG% on the road. These are two of the top five teams in the league in defensive efficiency. A meeting last month in Beantown saw the Celtics score 139 points. That won’t be happening again here. 10* Under Celtics/Lakers

10* Over Blackhawks/Stars (3:00 ET): On Friday, I won by *10* Total of the Month as the Blackhawks’ game vs. the Predators easily stayed Under the number. It was a 1-1 game entering OT (total was 6.5), which Chicago would go onto win. I followed that up by cashing the Preds (in another OT game) last night. Now we go back to the Blackhawks, who are in Dallas Sunday afternoon. Look for this to be a higher scoring game than their last one.

Yes, I say that knowing full well that the Stars are among the stingiest teams in the league, particularly on home ice. But they just got tagged for five goals by St. Louis in a loss Friday. The Over is 3-0-1 in Dallas’ previous four games w/ them also allowing 4 goals in a loss at Ottawa during that stretch. 

For Chicago, the Over is 13-3 the L16 times they’ve been off a game where they scored two goals or less. While they haven’t done a ton of scoring recently, the Blackhawks did have a game at Calgary on 2.15 where they found the back of the net EIGHT times. They also gave up six goals in a loss to the Rangers earlier this week. 10* Over Blackhawks/Stars

10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): At last glance, Cincinnati is considered to be one of the last teams in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) that wouldn’t be in a “play-in game.” That makes today’s game vs. Wichita State critically important for the Bearcats as a loss here would place them squarely on the Tourney bubble. A win further solidifies their status as one of three teams from the American Conference likely to get in. 

Wichita State is one of the two (Houston being the other) that is considered “safe” as far as making the Tourney goes. After a three-game losing streak to start the month, the Shockers have now won three straight - all by double digit margins. But those three wins have all come against bottom teams in the American. Interestingly enough, two of those three losses they took earlier this month came against Houston and Cincinnati. They lost 80-79 at home to Cincy as five-point chalk. 

Cincinnati has only been beaten twice in its last nine games. Once was by a single point at UConn. The other was Wednesday vs. UCF, a game which went to double overtime. So, again, you can see how important this game is for them. While they’ve failed to cover four straight (overall), this is a team that’s 11-2 SU at home and covered both times they’ve been in the -3.5 to -6 range here. 10* Cincinnati

10* Over UC Irvine/CS Northridge (10:00 ET): UC Irvine has been the dominant team out in the Big West the last two seasons. Last year, the Anteaters went 15-1 SU in conference play and 31-6 SU overall. They’re not nearly that dominant this season, but still have only lost two conference games and come into Saturday having won three straight. Thursday saw them avenge one of those two Big West defeats as they easily handled Long Beach State, winning that game 70-55 as 15-point favorites (so it was a push). 

CS Northridge was a team seemingly “left for dead” at one point as the Matadors started their season with seven consecutive losses. They are 11-9 SU since, but just got blitzed by UC Davis on Thursday, losing 110-98! No there wasn’t any overtime involved to get to that final score. Both teams shot almost 60% from the game and were a combined 25 of 44 on three-point attempts. While we shouldn’t expect that level of shooting again, it would require a pretty substantial dropoff for this one to go Under. 

UC Irvine’s last four games have all gone Under as they’ve held the opposition to just over 60 PPG. But that’s going to be hard to do here as CS Northridge averages more than 80 PPG at home. Of course, you should also expect UC Irvine to score it’s “fair share” as Northridge is giving up almost 80 PPG for the season. This is the first meeting of the year and what’s interesting for UC Irvine is that the majority of their first meetings w/ conference opponents this year have gone Over. 10* Over UC Irvine/CS Northridge

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): Columbus might still technically have a hold on the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, but it’s a tenuous one at best and they are sinking fast with a seven-game losing streak. Now four of those Blue Jackets’ losses have taken place after regulation has ended, the most recent being Thursday’s OT loss at home vs. Philly, which was really crucial as it allowed the Flyers to move two points up on them in the standings. My view is that you simply can’t back this club right now. 

Nashville is also fighting for its playoff life. They are two points back of the Wild Card over in the Western Conference, but competing against quite a number of teams (same as C-bus in the East). The Predators, like the Blue Jackets, aren’t exactly in top form coming into Saturday. They’ve lost two straight, scoring just one goal against both Carolina and Chicago. Last night’s 2-1 loss in the Windy City was my 10* Total of the Month (Under). That had more to do w/ the Blackhawks’ recent scoring slump though. It did surprise me that the Preds were able to score only one goal in an OT loss. 

At home, the Preds’ gpg average actually declines greatly. But there are three things working in their favor for this game. One is that they also allow a far fewer number of goals per game at home. Two is that the Bridgestone Arena has been Columbus’ least favorite place to visit through the years as their all-time record here is a pathetic 9-35 SU! Lastly, over the L5 games, the Blue Jackets have allowed a total of 20 goals. 8* Nashville

10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets’ future prospects for the remainder of this season were dealt a severe blow earlier this week when it was announced Kyrie Irving won’t be returning from shoulder surgery. The Nets are currently in 7th place in the Eastern Conference and should still make the playoffs despite the fact their two big free agent acquisitions (Irving and Kevin Durant) played a total of 20 games this year (0 for Durant). The fortunate thing for Brooklyn is that there’s a pretty large gap between them and 9th place (currently 5 games). 

Charlotte is one of the teams hoping to benefit from the Nets now being short-handed. Thursday saw the Hornets win for a third straight time (all as road underdogs) as they beat Chicago 103-93. But they are still 6.5 games back of the Nets and 4.5 games back of 8th place Orlando. While it was impressive that the Hornets won in Chicago, even with leading scorer Devonte Graham being held scoreless, make no mistake about it -- this is one of the worst teams in the entire league according to point differential. The Hornets -7.0 PPG differential is currently tied for 4th worst.

The Nets did lose Thursday in Philadelphia, but that’s a tough place to play. The Sixers have the league’s best home record. They pushed as eight-point dogs, but are still 7-1-1 ATS their L9 games. Remember that w/o Irving they snapped Toronto’s 15-game win streak right before the All-Star Break. The remaining cast for the Nets is better than you think and the Hornets are only 8-16 SU at home. 10* Brooklyn

10* Purdue (2:00 ET): Purdue has been one of the most confounding teams in the entire country this season. Thought by many (including me!) to be among the top 25 teams in the entire country, the Boilermakers have suffered 13 defeats and are now in serious danger of failing to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. At 14-13 SU overall, winning out between now and the Big 10 Tournament may be a necessity, especially in light of three straight losses. It’s obviously a “must win” today vs. Michigan. 

The Wolverines went from unranked at the start of the season to as high as #4 in the polls. Clearly, they were underestimated with an unproven HC (Juwan Howard), but it was laughable to me that they were ever considered the 4th best team in the country. They got that high on the strength of an impressive early season showing in the Bahamas. While beating Gonzaga still looks impressive, the win over UNC (who was #6 at the time - HA!) definitely isn’t. 

The Wolverines just handed Rutgers its first home loss of the season, 60-52 on Wednesday. They were 3.5-pt dogs in that game and it was their fourth consecutive win - SU and ATS. Two of those four wins have been as underdogs, but I don’t see them pulling the trick in B2B games as Purdue is about as desperate as it gets here. The Boilermakers are still 10-3 SU when playing at home and 12-4 SU as a favorite. We’re getting a great discounted price on them today. Trust me. 10* Purdue

8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET): I’ve been through before how this simply isn’t the same caliber Virginia team compared to the one that cut the nets down last April. This Cavaliers team, while still playing the same caliber defense we’re used to seeing from a Tony Bennett outfit, is just horrendous offensively. Consider that this year’s team actually ranks spot HIGHER in defensive efficiency compared to last season. But offensively, they’ve fallen from 2nd to 212th. They are averaging only 56.2 PPG on the road. 

Then again, Pitt is not exactly tearing it up in the ACC this year either. The Panthers come into Saturday on a three-game losing streak. The most recent setback came Tuesday when they lost by 15 at Florida State. Most of their ACC wins have come against teams located at the bottom of the conference standings. Those three straight losses have all come by double digits. As a result, I expect a desperate team to bring its ‘A’ game here. 

Despite only losing once (to Louisville) in its last eight games, Virginia still fails to crack my top 40 nationally and right now is still considered a “bubble team” for the NCAA Tournament. This is the first meeting of the year with Pitt. They’ve mostly handled Pitt through the years, but I continue to worry about this group’s ability to score. Averaging so few points makes it increasingly difficult to cover as a favorite and sure enough the Hoos are 4-13 ATS this year vs. winning teams. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Memphis (10:35 ET): The Grizzlies had a game last night in Sacramento and lost it by four points. That result seemingly does not bode well for tonight’s contest out in LA against the Lakers. But it’s a lot of points the Grizzlies are getting here and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if LeBron & company come out rusty in their first game post-All Star Break. I won’t go so far as to call this number “way off,” but Memphis has suffered only three SU defeats in its last 11 games. They are 5-2 SU/ATS in the second game of a back to back this season. 

The Lakers went into the Break in first place in the Western Conference. They won their last three games, but two of those were close (5 pt wins). Seven of the Lakers’ 12 SU losses this year have been at home. They only beat Memphis by a single point the last time they faced them and that was back in November. The Grizzlies have gotten much better since that time, going 23-17 SU overall. 

Incredibly, there have been three different times this season that Memphis has been a double digit dog and won the game outright. The last such time was right here in this building against the Clippers when they won 140-114, setting off what would be a 7-game win streak. It’s just too many points for the Lakers to lay in their first game back after the All-Star Break and remember that their two stars (LeBron & Anthony Davis) figured heavily into Sunday’s All-Star Game. 10* Memphis

10* Under Predators/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): Chicago has just one win in its last eight games and it saw them score 8 times (at Calgary). Other than that though, they haven’t topped 3 goals in any game since before the All-Star Break. As a result of their recent losing ways, the Blackhawks currently reside in the basement of the Central Division w/ just 60 points. While that’s actually just nine points back of the Wild Card, it would likely take something miraculous for the ‘Hawks to make the playoffs given the number of teams they’d need to jump. 

Nashville is in a slightly better position right now w/ 65 points. They’d won three in a row, including a home & home sweep of St. Louis, before dropping a 4-1 decision to Carolina on Tuesday. That was at home. For the most part, Predators’ road games have been pretty high scoring with the Over going 20-10 and them averaging 3.5 gpg while conceding 3.4. But because of those numbers, we’re getting a high total to work with here. 

Seven of the Preds’ last nine games have stayed Under including three of five on the road. The key is that both games that had totals of 6.5 stayed Under. Chicago probably isn’t going to score many goals tonight given its recent form. It then becomes a question of holding Nashville’s offense in check. The Rangers scored six times on the Blackhawks Wednesday night. It was the 4th time this season Chicago allowed 6+ goals in a game. After the previous three, they’ve responded by allowing just eight total. Nashville also gets key defenseman Ryan Ellis back for this game. 10* Under Predators/Blackhawks

10* Under Suns/Raptors (7:35 ET): I happen to think Phoenix is a lot better than its record (22-33 SU) shows as they’ve only been outscored by 1.2 PPG and actually have a positive net efficiency rating. By those metrics the Suns are actually the 8th best team in the Western Conference, but they still face a healthy six game deficit to make the playoffs, which is something the franchise has not done since 2010 (2nd longest drought in league). Unfortunately for the Suns, having to head for Toronto is not exactly the most ideal way to start the 2nd half. 

The defending NBA Champion Raptors have really hit their stride over the last month or so, winning a franchise record 15 in a row from 1/15-2/10. That win streak was halted in the final game before the All-Star Break as they fell 101-91 in Brooklyn. The last time the Raptors lost a game “North of the Border” was January 12th - by a single point - to San Antonio. Look for the Raptors to finish either 2nd or 3rd in the East as they fight w/ Boston over who’s the best team besides Milwaukee. 

The “secret” to the Raptors’ success is the fact they rank #2 in the league in defensive efficiency, trailing only Milwaukee. They’ve been able to consistently win despite a myriad of injuries and right now three players, including starter Marc Gasol, are likely to miss tonight’s game. Phoenix is also dealing with several players on the injury front, though their respective statuses appear more promising. Yet this is just the third time all year the Suns have taken the court w/ at least three days rest. Both previous times, the game went Under. 10* Under Suns/Raptors

10* Harvard (7:00 ET): Despite the fact that leading scorer Bryce Aiken has played in just seven games all season, Harvard has persevered to go 16-7 SU and they are just one game back of both Yale & Princeton in the Ivy League standings. Tonight, they get to host Princeton and it’s a revenge game for a 70-69 loss that occurred back on Feb 1st. Harvard was favored in that game, despite it being on the road, which is telling. I think laying the points is the right move in this rematch as the Crimson look to have a sizable edge at home.

That first meeting w/ Princeton was part of a five-game road trip for Harvard in which they finished up 2-3 SU. All five games were decided by four points or less (by 10 pts total!) including a pair of one-point losses. It was another close call for the Crimson in their last game as they needed double overtime to get by Columbia on Saturday. But that made it a 2-0 sweep for the week at home where they are now 8-1 SU on the year and holding opponents to a scant 59.4 PPG. The only loss at home was to Maryland, who is a top 10 team nationally.

Princeton is coming off an easy 73-54 win over Brown. That was a nice bounce back for them after being blown out by Yale, 88-64, in their own gym the night prior. While they did manage to slip by Harvard the first time, note it took a 56.5% shooting night from three-point range to do so. This line is rather telling given the Tigers are tied for 1st place in the conference. They give up 77.6 PPG on the road and w/ Harvard’s three league losses coming by a total of five points, it’s safe to say they are better than their record. 10* Harvard

10* Over Loyola Marymount/St. Mary’s (11:00 ET): St. Mary’s goes for the season sweep of Loyola Marymount tonight and really the task shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Gaels won by 11 last month and LMU has won just two times away from home all season. One was a neutral site game as the Lions’ record in “true” road games is 1-8 SU. St. Mary’s is 4-0 SU/ATS the L4 head to head meetings. Still laying this many points is not something I have much interest in. Instead, let’s look at the total.

It’s a pretty low number here and I’m not exactly sure why. The Over is 5-1 for St. Mary’s this season when the total is 120 to 129.5 and this team is 13th in the country in offensive efficiency. Five of the last six St. Mary’s games have gone Over, most of them with higher O/U lines than this one. Their home games average 137.5 PPG, which is well above tonight’s total. The first meeting vs. LMU was a 73-62 final where the Gaels shot 56% from the field.

Now Loyola Marymount doesn’t exactly score a ton of points. But even if they can get to their season average of 60.3 per game away from home, we should be in good shape here. The Lions did just pull an upset over the weekend, holding Santa Clara to 59 pts in what was their first “true” road win of the season. But you shouldn’t look for that kind of defensive effort here against St. Mary’s. The good news is St. Mary’s ranks outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. From LMU’s perspective, the number is low as the Over is 36-17 the L53 times the total has fallen into the 120 to 129.5 range. 10* Over Loyola Marymount/St. Mary’s

10* Under Rockets/Warriors (10:35 ET): What was a Western Conference Finals matchup last season will not be repeated in 2020 as Golden State has been decimated by injuries from the very start of this campaign, resulting in them having the worst record in the league going into the All-Star Break (12-43 SU). That would have been considered unthinkable back in October. Meanwhile, the Rockets are underperforming in their own right as they went into the Break 5th in the West.

Houston has the clear advantage tonight, but what I’m focusing on is the high total for this game. With their reputation for high-scoring games, the Rockets have seen exactly two-thirds of their games this season have an O/U line of 230 points or higher. The Under is 25-11 in those games, including 15-5 on the road. That’s the situation tonight and they’re up against a team that is averaging only 106.3 PPG.

Golden State has just three wins since 12.27. During that time, they’ve been held below 100 pts six different times. Now I’m not guaranteeing that will happen again tonight. But this is one of the highest O/U lines for any Warriors game this season. The Under is 2-0 for them w/ a total of 230 or higher. They are 17-7 Under when on a losing streak of three or more games. Meanwhile, Houston went into the Break on a four-game Under streak. Some recently added pieces may lead to further inefficiency with the offense. 10* Under Rockets/Warriors

10* Texas State (8:00 ET): Off to the Sun Belt we go for this one as Texas State hosts Ga Southern in what amounts to a very important game. This conference race remains wide open with the four teams at the top separated by just two games. These two teams are both two games back of leader Little Rock, who Texas State just beat exactly one week ago here in San Marcos. The Bobcats followed that up w/ another home victory, 69-64 over Arkansas State, and they enter tonight on a 9-2 hot streak w/ the two losses coming by a total of five points.

Georgia Southern, on the other hand, is off a loss and a bad one at that. They fell 62-57 at home to Appalachian State as a six-point home favorite. That result snapped a three-game win streak. What really hurt the Eagles in that loss Saturday was them missing 16 of 18 three-point attempts. Tonight they’re up against a team that allows just 63.6 PPG on the year and even fewer (60.6) at home. Again, Ga Southern scored just 57 points in its last game. 

This is also a revenge spot for Texas State as they lost by three at Ga Southern back in December. Since then, things have obviously “picked up” (see above). Over the L11 games, no opponent has scored more than 66 pts on the Bobcats. Ga Southern has actually not been an underdog since Jan 18th when they lost at South Alabama. It’s a role that has not treated them well at all as they’ve failed to cover five of the seven times and lost six of those games outright. This is Texas State’s night. 10* Texas State

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): It feels good to have the NBA back Thursday. For those unaware, Miami has the sharpest home vs. road split in the league outside of Philadelphia. While the Heat have gone an impressive 22-3 SU at home this year, they are still only in fourth place in the Eastern Conference due to a 13-16 road record. The proof is “in the numbers” as they go from a +10.6 PPG scoring differential at home to -2.9 on the road. With them laying so many points on the road tonight, I’ve got no choice but to fade. 

While Atlanta’s home record (9-15 SU) is even worse than Miami’s road mark, the Hawks are generally a lot more competitive here in their own building. They’re only -3.4 PPG, which is a massive improvement from them being outscored by an average 13.3 PPG on the road. While I cannot run from the fact the Hawks are at the bottom of the league record-wise and have some serious defensive issues, this is precisely the kind of situation (off a long break) where they should be capable of pulling an upset, or at the very least keep the game close. 

Now the Hawks are 0-3 vs. the Heat (SU and ATS) this season with all those games taking place before X-Mas. But two were in Miami. Tonight is also the end of a six-game road trip for the Heat that goes back to Feb 5. Their only SU win on the trip so far came at Golden State. Another thing to consider is that Miami was a very lucky team in the first half. They went 8-0 in overtime games, which is almost unheard of as an achievement. One of those was against the Hawks and somehow they ended up prevailing by 14 (misleading final!). Take the points here. 10* Atlanta

8* Puck Line Montreal (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am backing the Canadiens +1.5. The Habs are off a bone-crushing 4-3 loss (to the Red Wings) where they blew a 3-1 lead. That result gives them the ignominy of losing to the worst team in the league four times this season. It was also their fifth loss in a row overall. The bottom line is getting swept in the season series with the Red Wings likely has huge repercussions, specifically when it comes to making the playoffs. 

But it’s not as if the Habs aren’t competitive. As mentioned above, they did lead their last game 3-1 going into the third period. Of the five straight losses, three have come by one-goal margins. So that’s where the puck line comes in handy. In fact, seven of Montreal’s last nine games have been decided by one goal. I don’t believe the Canadiens are going to do any worse than a one goal loss tonight.

The task is tall tonight facing Washington, but the Capitals have had their own struggles of late, namely dropping four of their last five games. They’ve scored only 11 goals and none of them have come from Alex Ovechkin. The lone win in that stretch came by a single goal. After spending the last week out West, the Caps return home NOT in 1st place in the Metro for the 1st time in a long time (Pittsburgh has surpassed them). Montreal already won here in D.C. (back in November), so we know they have “what it takes.” 8* Puck Line Montreal (+1.5)

10* Colorado (10:05 ET): The Avalanche have by far and away the best goal differential in the Western Conference at +42. The next closest team is St. Louis (+18) and only two teams in the East (Boston, TB) can claim better YTD goal differentials. Scoring differential is a metric I value across all sports as it tends to be a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team’s actual won-loss record. So keep an eye on the Avs’ goal differential when you handicap the Western Conference playoff picture moving forward.

That the Avs are so far in front of the field in goal differential, yet only in third place in their own division is perplexing to say the least. Note it’s a very tight race in the Central right now w/ St. Louis, Dallas & Colorado all separated by just three points. But make no mistake about it, after losing three in a row - all at home - the Avalanche desperately need to win tonight’s game.

The Islanders have not had a successful road trip. They’ve scored a grand total of one goal so far, losing all three games. I successfully faded them Monday afternoon in Arizona. While there’s been no losing streak of longer than three games this year for the Isles, facing a team that averages 3.7 gpg at home hardly seems like an ideal matchup for them. NY’s scoring average on the road is now down to 2.4 gpg. Colorado is 11-5 SU this year after allowing 4+ goals in its previous game (lost 4-3 to Tampa Bay Monday). 10* Colorado

10* Under South Dakota St/North Dakota (8:00 ET): If you recall, we went Under on South Dakota State’s last game and came away with a winning ticket. That game was played Sunday against IPFW and the Jackrabbits held their opponents to just 64 points on 37.5% shooting. The current Summit League leaders are now on a six-game win streak and have held their L5 opponents to an average of 65.6 PPG on 37.5% shooting. During that time, only one team (Denver) has scored more than 64 pts or shot better than 37.5% against them.

SDSU hits the road Wednesday to face North Dakota, who like IPFW is a middle of the pack team in this conference. The Fighting Hawks did just record an 86-83 victory at Western Illinois, who is one of the worst teams in the Summit League. Before that win & cover (were -2), ND had covered only one of its previous nine games. The first meeting with South Dakota State did not go well as the Jackrabbits rolled to an 87-66 win thanks to shooting 50% from the field. Fortunately, SDSU does not score nearly as much on the road as they do at home.

While North Dakota may have some issues defending, the Under remains 7-1 this year for South Dakota State when the O/U line is 150 to 159.5. Also note that North Dakota’s last game went into overtime. It was 73-73 at the end of regulation, so the final score is a little misleading. The Fighting Hawks shot just 41.3% overall and were a dreadful 5 of 23 from three-point range. What “propped” their point total up was them going 29 of 33 from the FT line. They also shot poorly from 3-pt range in that 1st meeting w/ SDSU, which should repeat itself here as the Jackrabbits are holding opponents to 30% from behind the arc this year. 10* Under South Dakota St/North Dakota

8* Butler (6:30 ET): I’ve got much respect for Seton Hall, who leads the Big East right now w/ a 10-3 SU record in conference play. But the Pirates have dropped two in a row, including one at home to Creighton, and this is a tough spot laying points to a fellow ranked team. Butler certainly won’t be lacking for motivation as it has revenge for a 78-70 home loss to “The Hall” last month and things have gone a little “sideways” recently for the Bulldogs as they are just 4-6 SU their L10 games. 

Butler is coming off a bad loss to Georgetown where they were 12.5-point home favorites. They lost 73-66. While HC LaVall Jordan has been quick to point to defensive issues, it’s the offense that’s hurt the Bulldogs more of late. They’ve failed to hit 70 pts in three straight games as well as five of the last six. This is a team that still ranks 26th in the country in offensive efficiency and makes 53.3% of its two-point attempts. The good news is that it was only two games ago that the Bulldogs held a lead as large as 17 points against a good Xavier team. 

Seton Hall HC Kevin Willard admitted after Saturday’s loss at Providence that he’s dealing with “some guys with bad attitudes right now.” That’s never a good sign, especially this late in the season. Curiously, the Pirates are shooting below 30% from three-point range at home. That’s a big break for a Butler team that admittedly struggles to defend beyond the arc. But they are holding opponents to 43.3% from two-point range. Virtually all of the recent head to head meetings have been close (three decided by 2 pts or less!) and w/ Butler 5-1 ATS L6 visits here, I’m taking the points. 8* Butler

8* Under Colorado St/UNLV (10:30 ET): From Jan 8 through Feb 1, UNLV went Over in seven straight games. Since then, the Under is 3-1 in their games w/ the lone Over coming in a game that went to overtime (82-79 loss to Nevada). The Rebels aren’t exactly a great shooting team (I watched them in person vs. Nevada) and are making just 30.5% of their 3PA here at the Thomas & Mack Center. Tuesday sees them hosting a Colorado State team that has gone Over in five straight.

These teams met not long ago in Fort Collins and CSU hung 95 points on the Runnin’ Rebels in a blowout victory. That was the final game of the 7-game Over streak for UNLV. It was also the 2nd straight game Colorado State scored 90+. They haven’t been able to reach that number since, but their games continue to go Over. These L5 games have seen the Rams average 83.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting. Both numbers are well above their season averages. 

Playing on the road, I don’t expect Colorado State to have a big offensive night here. They only shot 40.7% in Saturday’s 77-70 win at Wyoming. Similarly, UNLV should not be expected to match the 50% shooting we saw against short-handed New Mexico Saturday. Their previous three games saw them finish below 40% from the field. Colorado State shot 61.5% overall in the first meeting and was 11 of 17 from three-point approach. It’s all but impossible for them to match those numbers here. 8* Under Colorado State/UNLV

6* Montreal (7:35 ET): Both of these teams come into Tuesday on four-game losing streaks. So recent form offers little in the way of advantages either way. But looking at the totality of the season, it’s clear who you want to fade here and that’s Detroit, the consensus worst team in the league. The Red Wings have just 32 points and a -106 goal differential, both easily league’s worsts. To put those numbers in perspective, the next lowest point total in the league is 47 (Kings) while the 2nd worst goal differential is -44 (Ottawa). 

However, there is at least one curious element to this terrible season from the Red Wings. They are 3-0 against Montreal! The Habs might be a slightly below average team, but no one should be losing three times to Detroit. Consider that the Red Wings’ record vs. everyone else is 11-43-4 SU.

Looking at the respective four-game losing streaks, Montreal was able to pick up a point its last time out as it fell in overtime vs. Dallas. They blew a three-goal lead in that game. It’s been a long time since Detroit has been in that kind of position as they have scored only three times total the L3 games and been outscored by 10 goals. They lost 5-1 at Pittsburgh Sunday, troubling because they are a horrifying 4-31 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. I just can’t see the Canadiens losing to the Wings again. They’ve actually performed better on the road this season. 6* Montreal

10* Over Ball State/Buffalo (7:00 ET): Buffalo is a high-scoring team. Their 78.2 PPG average ranks among the top 25 in the country overall and they are averaging more than 80 PPG here at home. However, each of the Bulls’ previous six games have gone Under the total, three of those being among their lowest scoring efforts of the year. But after failing to top 65 pts in B2B games for the 1st time all season, there was an offensive breakthrough last Friday at Toledo. The Bulls won that game 83-65 (as a 2.5-pt dog).

Similarly, Ball State had gone Under in eight straight contests heading into this past weekend. But their streak has been snapped. Differing from Buffalo, it was a defensive breakdown that cost the Cardinals their last game as they gave up 77 points in a six-point loss at home to surprising Bowling Green. While that was the most points BSU has allowed in any MAC game this season, it was far from their worst defensive effort. The last time they played on the road, the Cardinals let Western Michigan shoot 61% from the field! 

So Buffalo should definitely score plenty of points tonight. While the number may be on the rise, this is still one of the lower O/U lines in recent memory for the Bulls. Defensively, they have held three straight opponents below 70 pts and the last two both below 40% shooting. But they’re still giving up 74.6 PPG on the year with opponents shooting 45% in home games. So there’s an opening for Ball St offensively in this one and I look for them to take advantage of it. 10* Over Ball State/Buffalo

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): After back to back “clunkers” against Ball State and Northern Illinois (scored 54 pts both games), Kent State played one of its best games of the year Saturday, riding a career-high 27 points from Troy Simons and a season-high 17 made three-pointers as a team en route to an 87-72 victory over Ohio. They look to continue better position themselves for the MAC Tournament Tuesday when they hit the road to face a rising Eastern Michigan team. 

Eastern Michigan has covered five straight games and won them all but one, a 59-58 loss at Akron. The Eagles play pretty outstanding defense, especially at home where they are giving up only 59.5 PPG. Factoring that in along with the recent form makes it seem they’ll be a pretty “tough out” for the Golden Flashes tonight. But something that is very interesting here is the oddsmakers’ perception of EMU. Their last game (a 69-51 over Western Michigan) marked the 1st time ALL YEAR that they were favored in MAC play!

So I think it speaks volumes that the road team comes in favored here. Yes, Eastern Michigan has been winning, but three of their last four wins have been by four points or less. Before this 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS streak began, the Eagles had actually lost seven in a row. Incredibly, this is a team that has been favored only six times all year (6-0 in those games). They are still just 4-10 SU in the underdog role. Off the strong showing Saturday, look for Kent State to come in and take care of business. 10* Kent State

10* Iowa State (9:00 ET): Kansas figures to still be at #3 in the polls when it tips off against Iowa State Monday in Lawrence. The Jayhawks, now 22-3 SU on the year, notched impressive wins over West Virginia (58-49) and Oklahoma (87-70) over the past week. They’ve now won 10 in a row and truth be told there is an argument to be made that this is the best team in the entire country. KU has covered the spread in three straight games.

Iowa State had a far more tumultuous week as they learned star Tyrese Haliburton, projected to be a 1st round NBA pick, will miss the rest of the season with a wrist injury. In their first game w/o Haliburton, the Cyclones were crushed 90-61 at Oklahoma. But they then circled the wagons Saturday for arguably their most impressive performance to date, an 81-52 thrashing of Texas in Ames. 

Kansas has #1 Baylor on deck, a showdown in Waco that takes place Saturday. They already faced Iowa State right before Baylor earlier this season and this time KU is hopeful things turn out better. That’s because last time they ended up losing to Baylor 67-55. They did defeat ISU 79-53 in Ames, but I look for this rematch to be a lot closer than that. It’s the most points the Cyclones will get in any game all season and they’re 22-10 ATS as a road dog of at least 12.5 points going back more than a decade. The “lookahead” factor is real here. 10* Iowa State

9* Arizona (4:05 ET): Needless to say, the Islanders have not had a strong start to this road trip. They’ve yet to even score a single goal! Shutout losses to Nashville and Vegas leave the Isles in a third place tie in the Metro and a tenuous two points ahead of sixth place Carolina. It’s a very thin line between “in” and “out” of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.

The same could be said out West where Arizona is trying to make the playoffs. The Coyotes would currently be a Wild Card, but are tied w/ Calgary and depending what Winnipeg does Sunday night at home vs. Chicago, one of the two Pacific Division teams would be on the outside looking in. Unlike the Islanders, the ‘Yotes do bring a bit of positive momentum in this one as they defeated Washington 3-1 on Saturday. Now they try to win B2B games for the 1st time in over a month. 

While goal scoring has been a problem for NY recently, they are still #6 in the league in goals allowed. But Arizona isn’t too far behind, ranking #9. So the edge the Isles have over most opponents won’t be present here. Plus the Coyotes have the goal scoring advantage here at home, averaging 3.1 gpg here compared to 2.4 for NY on the road. The Islanders are just 1-6 SU their L7 games as a ML dog, all but one of those games taking place on the road. 9* Arizona 

10* Winnipeg (8:35 ET): Chicago is coming off an 8-goal effort last night in Calgary. That sounds all “fine and dandy,” but let’s consider for a moment that the Blackhawks had lost five in a row going into last night and had scored a grand total of eight goals in those five losses. They remain buried in last place of the Central Division with 60 points and while they are still viable for a Wild Card spot, I wouldn’t expect to see this club still playing hockey when the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin in April. 

Winnipeg also needs to make up some ground in order to make the playoffs. They are only three points ahead of Chicago in the standings, but are in fourth place in the division and only three points back of the Wild Card. The top three teams in the Central (St. Louis, Dallas, Colorado) have really solidified themselves, so the only way another Central team is getting into the postseason is through the Wild Card. This game is quite important for both sides.

The Jets recently defeated the Blackhawks, 5-2 here in Winnipeg, which at the time gave them their fourth three-game win streak of the season. Unfortunately, they haven’t won since, dropping two straight at home. Look for this to be the proverbial bounce back spot though. Losing three in a row, all at home, is something that hasn’t happened since October. 10* Winnipeg

8* California (6:00 ET): It would appear as if these two teams are trending in pretty different directions coming into Sunday, but the reality of the matter is that neither is really heading anywhere of note. Arizona State has won four in a row, including an upset at Stanford on Thursday, but the Sun Devils are still aren’t considered a NCAA Tourney team (nor should they be). Cal, who no one expected to do much this year, has lost three in a row. But save for Thursday’s loss to a very good Arizona team, the Bears have proven to be a pretty tough “out” here in Berkeley. 

I consider Arizona to be the Pac 12’s best team, so I won’t put much stock in the fact California lost to them by a score of 68-52. That non-cover (were +10.5) snapped a 5-0 ATS run in Pac 12 home games for Cal, which included three outright upsets. The only two conference opponents to come in here and win are Arizona and Oregon, the two best teams. This is simply a much better team when at home and it’s a benefit that ASU is playing its second straight road game. 

While in the midst of (arguably) their most successful stretch of the season, Arizona State is mostly winning close. The last two games have seen them prevail by a total of seven points and four of their last five wins have been by five points or fewer. That leaves them on “shaky ground” as a road favorite as far as I’m concerned. This will be just the third time the Sun Devils have been a road favorite this season and they are 0-2 ATS the previous two occasions with a two-point win over Princeton (2nd game of the season) and an outright loss at Washington State last month. 8* California

8* Boston (3:35 ET): For the balance of the season, Boston has been out in front in the Atlantic Division. They still lead the league with 84 points but Tampa Bay (83 pts) is now hot on the Bruins’ heels, making them probably rue the fact they are a league-worst 0-7 in shootouts. Still the Bruins keep on winning as yday’s 4-1 triumph over league worst Detroit was their eighth win in the last nine contests and avenged the only loss during that time (last Sunday in Detroit). Today they head to MSG where they’ve won three straight times.. 

New York is having an okay season as they are over .500 and have a positive goal differential. They’ve won four straight coming into Sunday. However, they remain in a tough spot as they’re still only in seventh place in the Metro and would need to jump at least three teams in order to get into playoff position. The gap between them and the second Wild Card is currently seven points. The Rangers did not play yesterday.

This is NY’s longest win streak of the season. While they did just beat Columbus (despite facing 37 shots), most of the wins have come against the inferior Western Conference. The Bruins simply have too much offense here as they’ve scored 4+ goals nine times in a 12-3-1 stretch that goes back to early January. I already mentioned the success they’ve had playing in this venue (3-0 L3) and they are 17-8 L25 times taking the ice as a road favorite. The Rangers are 7-18 SU vs. opponents with a .600 or better win percentage. 8* Boston

8* Connecticut (3:00 ET): As it stands now, the American Conference may be sending as few as 2-3 teams to the NCAA Tournament and Memphis won’t be one of them. Anfernee Hardaway’s Tigers came into the 2019-20 season with plenty of promise, but things have been marred with controversy from the start as top recruit James Wiseman was quickly ruled ineligible. The team has still managed to go 17-7 SU, but comes into Sunday off B2B losses (to South Florida and Cincinnati), the latter of which coming in a game that went to OT.

UConn’s glory days seem like a long time ago, but the Huskies have proven to be a tough out lately by going 3-0 ATS their L3 games. Two of those were also SU wins, one of them against the AAC leader (at the time) Tulsa. That was followed by a minor upset of Cincinnati here at home (also an overtime game)) and then on Wednesday the Huskies gave SMU all they could handle in an eventual 79-75 loss. The Huskies still covered the spread (+5) even though they allowed SMU to shoot 55% from the field. 

This is a revenge game for UConn as they lost 70-63 down in Memphis on Feb 1. That was a tie game w/ under three minutes to go, but Memphis uncharacteristically hit most of its free throws down the stretch (9 of 10) to get the win and cash as five-point chalk. While UConn is 0-5 ATS its L5 times hosting the Tigers, I see them getting revenge this afternoon as they are simply a much better team at home where they are 10-3 SU/9-4 ATS. They shot poorly in the game at Memphis, something I don’t see happening today. Memphis makes less than 41% of its FG attempts on the road. 8* Connecticut

10* Under IPFW-South Dakota St (3:00 ET): Out in the Summit League, South Dakota State is tied with North Dakota State for first place (both teams sporting 10-2 SU records in conf play). The Jackrabbits have won five straight and 10 of their last 11 as they remain perfect on the year at home (14-0 SU). They’ve enjoyed a strong season at the betting window as well, going 17-8 ATS overall including 12-4 when favored. They tend to put a lot of points on the board, especially at home where they average 82.4 PPG.

IPFW is facing a pretty tough “ask” from the schedule makers here as they just played at North Dakota State Thursday. They lost, 80-70, but at least got the cash as 12.5-poingt dogs. The loss snapped a two game win streak for the Mastadons, who now have to travel to face the other co-leader in the Summit. The first meeting this season with SD State yielded a 70-61 loss, at home obviously, as IPFW had a dreadful shooting night (32.4% overall) which included them missing 22 of 26 three-point attempts. 

As you may have guessed, South Dakota State shoots the ball well here at home. They shot the ball well vs. IPFW in that first meeting, making over 52% of their FG attempts. They figure to shoot it pretty well again this afternoon, but let’s not discount the defense the Jackrabbits are playing either. Before the 90-78 win over Denver on Friday, they’d held three straight opponents to under 37% shooting. IPFW generally does NOT shoot the ball well. Neither team ranks in the top 200 in adjusted tempo. 10* Under IPFW/South Dakota St

8* UC Irvine (11:59 ET): UC Irvine continues to lead the Big West (8-2 SU in conf play) and should be considered - by far - the best team this league has to offer. The Anteaters’ overall record may be just 16-10. But they took on a tough non-conference schedule. It was last Saturday when they suffered their second loss in Big West play, 64-61 at UCSB. But they wasted little time in rebounding as they went to rival UC Riverside and won 63-59. The next goal is ending a 3-game ATS losing streak. 

Hawaii host UC Irvine tonight. The Warriors have not covered the spread in any of their last seven lined contests. They’ve also lost the last three on the court. The most recent was by a single point, 50-49, to Long Beach State right here at home. While that was only their third home loss of the season, the Warriors definitely still deserve to be underdogs tonight. They lost at UC Irvine by 14 last month and were never really in the game. 

It’s pretty crazy that three of the last six meetings between these teams have been decided by exactly one point. But the other three have all been comfortable victories for UC Irvine. Hawaii is one of only three teams besides UC Irvine in the Big West to have a winning overall record. But that should also say something about the Warriors inability to get the cash. Wednesday’s 4-point  win by UC Irvine was their first all year in the Big West by less than seven points. They cover the spread here. 8* UC Irvine

]10* Montana De La Rosa (9:35 ET): This is a women’s flyweight bout, scheduled for three rounds. De La Rosa comes in at 10-5 while Mara Romero Borella is 12-6. 

De La Rosa is off a loss to unanimous decision loss to Andrea Lee back in June. But before that, she was on a three-fight win streak. All three wins saw her stop her opponent. I expect her to be the far more aggressive fighter in tonight’s bout and score with the judges often. 

 From her opponents’ perspective, Borella has a rather frustrating approach that often keeps them at bay. She too is off a loss, her’s back in August against Lauren Murphy by third round TKO. She’s lost two of her past three fights and has only one win since 2017. I just don’t think she’s the same caliber of fighter as De La Rosa. 10* Montana De La Rosa

10* Over Virginia/North Carolina (8:00 ET): Even though the conference currently has three top eight teams (Louisville, Duke, Florida State), on the whole it’s been a very disappointing season for the ACC. Nowhere is that more evident than here as Virginia faces North Carolina Saturday night. Virginia, who won last year’s NCAA Tournament, is fighting just to get in the Big Dance this year. North Carolina has no shot to make it into March Madness unless it wins the ACC Tournament, which seems unlikely at this point.

Virginia is still playing its usual trademark defense as they rank third nationally in efficiency. But the offensive end has been ugly with them ranking 250th in efficiency. Compare that to last year’s title team which ranked 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency (5th in defensive efficiency). Overall, UVA games are only averaging a paltry 108.1 PPG this season, easily the fewest in the entire country. So it should be no shock that the total is really low here. But with UNC as the opponent, it’s too low.

The Tar Heels have dropped four in a row including that heartbreaker to Duke last Saturday night. That was followed by a dismal effort at Wake Forest where they lost 74-57 as a 1.5-point favorite. But here in Chapel Hill, they are still averaging 74.6 PPG. Will they reach that average tonight against Virginia? Probably not. But UNC should score enough to get this one Over. My view is that both teams are capable of scoring 60 here. The Over is 5-1 this year in Virginia road games with a total of 119.5 or less. 10* Over Virginia/North Carolina

7* Minnesota (5:05 ET): With San Jose on the second night of a back to back (won 3-2 last night), this seems like an opportune time to fade them. The fact that they won last night in Winnipeg makes the decision to fade somewhat easier. Overall, the Sharks are not having a good season as they’ve been outscored by 39 goals and remain near the bottom of the Western Conference. They’ve somehow managed to win three straight, but that’s a streak I don’t see continuing. 

Over in Minnesota, the Wild are dealing with some unexpected turmoil right now due to the shocking firing of HC Bruce Boudreau. The move came on the heels of the team blowing a 3-1 lead to the Rangers and losing 4-3 in a shootout. But despite shaky goaltending, the Wild are still 7-3-1 their L11 games and very much viable in the playoff race as they are only three points back of the Wild Card. That’s a lot better than San Jose.

Taking Boudreau’s spot behind the bench is interim Dean Evason. He inherits a club that’s 17-8-5 SU at home. Teams typically respond well to a coaching change and that’s what I expect from the Wild tonight. Another motivating factor is that they have lost four in a row to the Sharks. It helps San Jose is being outscored by more than a full goal per game on the road this season. The Sharks’ 2.4 gpg average away from home ranks 26th. They are 2-6 SU playing on back to back days. 7* Minnesota

10* South Florida (12:00 ET): Tulsa was badly exposed last week when they lost by 16 to UConn as a three-point home favorite. Believe it or not, the Golden Hurricane actually came into that game leading the American Conference. They were further exposed in their next game, an 83-75 loss at UCF. But they did bounce back earlier this week w/ a convincing 70-56 win over East Carolina, a team near the bottom of the AAC. Still in third place, the Golden Hurricane now make the long trip to USF for an early Saturday start. 

South Florida has covered four straight, the lone SU loss in that stretch coming last time out when they faced first place (and the only ranked AAC team) Houston. But the Bulls lost by only four. This team may have its issues scoring, but they play excellent defense as is evident by the fact they are allowing only 57.8 PPG at home. The game before they lost to Houston, USF went to Memphis and won outright. The two previous games saw them allow just 100 points total. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS on Saturdays this season. 

Other than vs. East Carolina, the only other time Tulsa has been a favorite in conference play was the game against UConn. We saw what happened there. Once again, oddsmakers are speaking volumes by installing them as an underdog here. The kind of defense USF can play here at home is the difference. They lead the conference in scoring defense. We saw Tulsa allow 83 pts in their last road game to a UCF team that USF held to 48 pts. Both times this year that the Bulls have been favored at home by three points or less, they have gotten the cash. 10* South Florida

10* Over Sharks/Jets (7:05 ET): It’s been four days since the Sharks last took the ice and suffered a disastrous 6-2 loss to Calgary, a team they’d recently beaten on the road. That was only one of two home games they’ll play in the first 25 days of the month.  Prior to that loss, they’d scored six goals of their own in a win at Edmonton as they made it an “Alberta sweep” over the Flames and Oilers. Tonight it’s back to Canada with a visit to Winnipeg, who just had a three game win streak snapped here at home Tuesday as the Rangers came in and beat them 4-1.

In that three-game win streak, the Jets piled up 14 goals and appeared to be ascendant in the Central Division standings. But with an eight-point gap now existing between the top three and the rest of the field in the Central, it would appear as if the Wild Card is the only point of entry for the Jets when it comes to the playoffs. Even though they were held to just one goal by the Rangers, Winnipeg did get 44 shots on goal. So don’t be surprised if the kind of goal scoring we saw in the prior three games resumes here. 

San Jose is a terrible defensive team as they are giving up 3.5 goals per game on the road. Poor play at the defensive end is what caused them to fall into an early 3-0 hole. Tonight marks the 5th time this year that the Sharks have played with at least three days rest. The Over is 3-1 the previous four times. Winnipeg took both head to head meetings in November and those were in San Jose. The Sharks were playing much better at that time. The Jets scored eight goals in those games. I see this being a high-scoring contest. 10* Over Sharks/Jets

10* Over Manhattan/Iona (7:00 ET): These MAAC schools just met 12 days ago with Manhattan dealing Iona a humiliating 72-49 blow as 4-point favorites. Since then, Iona has bounced back with two convincing wins on the road: 73-52 over Quinnipiac and 78-54 over Fairfield. Both came as underdogs. The Gaels are certainly better than their 7-12 SU record, but have also proven to be wildly inconsistent. Not sure if they can be trusted as favorites tonight, even though they are back home in a huge revenge spot.

Manhattan is also unbeaten since the Iona game having beaten Niagara 77-59 (-6.5) and Quinnipiac (65-63). The latter was on the road while the former was at home. Over the course of what is now a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, the Jaspers have allowed an average of only 57 PPG on 36.6% shooting. But I cannot see them continuing that level of defensive play for much longer, especially on the road. On the flip side, the Jaspers may not be a deadly offensive team, but look for them to take advantage of the fact Iona is allowing opponents to shoot better than 45% from behind the 3-point arc this season.

Iona likely won’t shoot as well here as they did in their last game (57.4%!) but they’ll definitely be more proficient than they were in the first meeting with Manhattan when they made only 32.6% of their shots. Iona home games are averaging 147.1 PPG, which is well up from 136.9 PPG on the road. Because of that, I’m throwing down on the Over here as both sides are capable of scoring far more than you think. 10* Over Manhattan/Iona

8* Over Buffalo/Toledo (6:30 ET): Buffalo enjoyed a really nice run of success under Nate Oats. During his tenure, the Bulls made it to the NCAA Tournament three times and advanced to the Round of 32 twice. But Oats bolted for “greener pastures” (i.e. Alabama), leaving his former program as basically “just another MAC team.” While still one of the better teams in the conference, UB can no longer count on dominating night after night. They come into tonight’s game having lost 3 of 5, leaving them at 15-9 SU on the year. 

I would rate Toledo fairly comparably to Buffalo so the line tonight doesn’t surprise me. Toledo has a losing record (12-13 SU) and has not done well against the spread this season as they are just 2-10-1 ATS the L13 games. But earlier this week, the Rockets were able to put an end to five-game SU losing streak by beating Miami (OH) 65-57. They held the RedHawks to 36.2% shooting, which is abnormally good defensive performance for them. The same statement could be made for Buffalo in their last game (which was last Friday) as they held Central Michigan to 35.7% shooting in a 65-60 win. 

Buffalo’s last five games have all stayed Under, the last two by huge margins. But by playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the entire country, this team is due for an offensive resurgence. They still average 78.0 PPG on the year. Toledo is not a good defensive team as they rank a woeful 258th nationally in defensive efficiency. Expect this to be a high-scoring game. 8* Over Buffalo/Toledo

10* Oklahoma City (8:00 ET): Back on Tuesday, I noted how the Pelicans have been doing with Zion Williamson. Since he debuted, the team’s record is 6-4 SU w/ him missing one of the losses. I had New Orleans Tuesday, in a home game vs. Portland, but if you read that analysis then you know it was more of a fade on a Blazers team that more often than not struggles on the road. Sure enough, they prevailed by 21 points. They’re at home again Thursday, but playing against what I consider a more formidable team. 

Oklahoma City has been one of the big surprises of the first half of the season. Having already gone over their season win total (31.5), they lead the league with a 34-19-1 ATS record. That said, they did just drop a home game to San Antonio Tuesday night 114-106 as an eight-point favorite. Count on them bouncing back here though. Incredibly, they have gone 20-5 ATS on the road, so they are a much bigger threat than the Blazers were. While tonight’s number is short, it’s worth noting OKC is 21-8 ATS getting points.

The Thunder are also 3-0 vs. the Pelicans this season. The three wins were all relatively close and when New Orleans didn’t have Williamson in the lineup. Nevertheless, my view is that OKC is the better team here. The Pelicans still have massive defensive issues in that they give up 117.2 points per game. That’s the most in the Western Conference and things really haven’t been much better since Williamson arrived. In each of the L5 games, NO has allowed at least 117 pts. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Calgary (10:05 ET): The Flames obviously aren’t as good as they were a season ago, but this looks to be a game where they pick up an easy two points. You may recall Calgary finished first in the entire Western Conference last year. Regression was all but inevitable and right now they are third in the division (Pacific), tied w/ two other teams (Vegas, Arizona). But they are only three points out of first and that’s a lot better than where tonight’s opponent is, that being dead last in both the division and conference! 

The Kings have just 43 points, which is 21 fewer than the Flames. The only team in the league with fewer points in the whole league is Detroit. Los Angeles also has a -47 goal differential, again 2nd worst in the entire league w/ only Detroit worse. It’s one thing to be bad and another to also be in bad form and the Kings happen to be both. They’ve lost five in a row, getting outscored 19-7 in the process. 

Meanwhile, Calgary is coming off B2B 6-2 wins out on the road. They won at Vancouver (1st place team in the Pacific) as well as San Jose. Avenging two early season losses (both in October), the Flames beat the Kings back on 12.7 by a score of 4-3. To me, this line should be north of -200. The Kings are just that bad and I won’t hesitate to fade them at the current price. Overall, LA has lost 13 of 15. They just got back from a winless East Coast trip, so fatigue could be a factor. 10* Calgary

10* Under Nevada/UNLV (10:00 ET): I’ll be taking in this game in person! That’s right, I plan on being at the Thomas & Mack Center this evening as UNLV hosts in-state rival Nevada. Like everyone else in the Mountain West, these teams find themselves staring up at undefeated San Diego State. Both have five losses in conference play, which ties them for second. Nevada won the first meeting 86-72 in Reno as they were four-point favorites. But you should look for the Wolf Pack’s scoring to drop off tonight. 

UNLV has not shot well recently, making less than 40% of its FG attempts over the L5 games. That’s helped put an end to what was a seven-game Over streak for the Runnin’ Rebels. The last two games have both gone Under as they’ve scored just 54 and 68 points. The 68 was enough to get by Fresno State at home over the weekend and the Rebels have been pretty good at the defensive end here, giving up just 65.9 PPG. So, again, Nevada isn’t going to be scoring anywhere close to the 86 pts they had in the 1st meeting.

I know the Wolf Pack are coming off a couple of high-scoring wins. They put 88 on the board against Air Force and 95 against San Jose State. But again, those were home games, not to mention against two of the worst teams in the league. Nevada averages 81.8 PPG in Reno but just 70.1 on the road. Not to beat a dead horse, but that’s the key here. If the Wolf Pack are to sweep the season series, it will be because they are holding conference opponents to 40.7% shooting this year. 10* Under Nevada/UNLV

10* Miami (9:05 ET): Oddsmakers would appear to be “begging” you to take Utah here as the line has been set low. The Jazz have won three straight, one of them a “controversial” win over Miami and the other two being upsets of Houston and Dallas on the road. So they are hot. And we know Miami struggles on the road. But the Heat finally did win a game on this “West Coast” swing by beating Golden State 113-101 (-7) on Monday. Jimmy Butler is now back in the lineup after missing two games, which obviously makes the Heat a more formidable team.

Personally, I don’t see any issue with the line here as these teams come into Wednesday with the exact same records and are both in fourth place in their respective conferences. I won’t run from the fact the Heat are just 13-15 SU on the road, but note they are only being outscored on average by 2.4 points in those games. Utah’s three game win streak has seen them prevail by three, one and four points. They haven’t won a game by more than five points since 1.22 against Golden State!

So I think there’s a pretty viable scenario that the Heat could lose this game and still cover. After all, the reverse of that happened when the Jazz visited Miami back on 12.27. The Heat won 107-104, but Utah got the cash as 4.5 point dogs. Of course, I very much give the Heat a chance to win this game as they are a much better team with Butler back in the lineup. The Jazz have not been playing great defense recently and aren’t about to approach the 59.0 FG% they had Monday vs. Dallas. Take the points. 10* Miami

10* Over Utah St/Colorado St (9:30 ET): Utah State is 19-7 SU but it’s been a disappointing season. They’ve had to sit back and watch Mt West rival San Diego State explode on the national scene as the only unbeaten team left in College Basketball. They’ve already lost twice to the Aztecs, so USU’s path to the Big Dance probably goes through the conference tourney. The Aggies have won two straight, but both wins were at home. It remains to be seen if they can do it on the road where they are 1-4 SU in conference play. 

Colorado State is on a three-game win streak and they have scored 80 or more in every victory. All three games went Over, obviously something that caught our eye. The Rams are a team that can definitely score and it’s not just a recent trend. They average 76.5 PPG for the year and that number jumps to almost 80 PPG here in Fort Collins. They did not have a good night at the offensive end when they visited Utah State last month, scoring only 61 points on 37.3% shooting. It goes without saying they should be better tonight. 

Utah State shot the lights out in that game, making 59% of their FG attempts. Clearly, it’s going to be very difficult to replicate that kind of proficiency here. But the big key is at the other end. The number of points the Aggies are allowing on the road vs. at home is quite the split, especially when factoring in only conference games. Take away the Wyoming game and the Aggies have allowed at least 70 in every MWC road game and 79 or more in three of the four. 10* Over Utah St/Colorado St

10* Under Spurs/Thunder (8:05 ET): The “Rodeo Road Trip” is something the Spurs have been dealing with for decades. But this year’s is going as poorly as any in history. They’ve lost the first five games and in doing so they have allowed an average of 122.2 PPG. Last night was a 127-120 loss in Denver, which was actually the closest the Spurs have been in any game on this trip since the first one against the Clippers. Tonight they are in OKC to face the surprising Thunder, who have already gone over their projected season win total of 31.5. 

The Thunder have won 9 of their last 11 games. But one of those two losses came Sunday, here at home vs. Boston. They lost 112-111 but did cover the 1.5-point spread. That’s a very good (and hot!) Celtics team, so there’s no reason for OKC to hang its collective head in shame. What’s interesting is that the 112 pts allowed were the most in any game since a win over Orlando on 1.22. They’ve been doing a lot better than the Spurs recently, giving up just 104.6 PPG in their L5 contests. 

Despite the Spurs’ defensive deficiencies, I like this one to go Under. The teams met last month in San Antonio and the Thunder prevailed 109-103. That game had a total of 217.0. The Spurs shot 41.9% from three-point range in that game, something they almost certainly won’t repeat tonight. With the Thunder, it’s the number that’s key. In games with a total of 220 or higher, the Under is 16-3 for them this season. That includes 9-2 at home. 10* Under Spurs/Thunder

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Since Zion Williamson debuted, the Pelicans have gone 5-4 SU. They’ve won B2B games, putting up 124 and 125 pts in road wins over Indiana and Chicago. Ironically, Williamson did not play in Saturday’s win over the Pacers, nor did All-Star Brandon Ingram. At least Williamson will return tonight for a key home game against a Portland team that has won six of eight and is 2.5 games ahead of New Orleans in the standings. The Pelicans are 2-0 SU/ATS vs. the Blazers this year, both wins coming before X-Mas and thus w/o Williamson. 

As stated above, New Orleans isn’t the only team surging here. Portland has won six of eight. But those two losses have something in common in that they were both on the road. Exactly one week ago, we faded them at Denver and they lost by 28 points. Then came a controversial loss in Utah where Damian Lillard was robbed of a potential GW basket when an obvious goaltending was not called. It must be mentioned that the Blazers are still only 10-18 SU on the road this season. 

New Orleans is 7-1 ATS this season when playing with two days rest. That win in Indiana took place Saturday. Again, this is a really key game as the Pelicans need to jump three teams, Portland among them, to get the #8 seed in the Western Conference. Despite the slow start to the season, NO very much has a similar statistical profile to the teams they are competing with. That loss in Denver last week showed how much the Blazers’ scoring drops off on the road. 10* New Orleans

10* Over Red Wings/Sabres (7:05 ET): These teams just met five days ago and the Red Wings skated away w/ 4-3 victory as +190 ML dogs. They are off an even more impressive win, as a +290 ML dog, at home vs. Boston. But those are the only two wins for the Wings going back to Jan 10. This is a team that has had MANY long losing skids this season (FOUR of six or more). As a result, they are clearly the worst team in the league (32 points, -95 goal differential) and not worth backing on any kind of semi-regular basis. 

Buffalo isn’t exactly having a great year either. It started well, just as last year did, but the Sabres are just 15-22-7 SU their L44 games. I already mentioned the loss to Detroit five weeks ago. Well, they took another loss at home on Sunday, this one coming by a 3-2 score against Anaheim. They’ve lost six of eight overall with the only win in regulation coming at MSG vs. the Rangers. As a result, the club is barely visible in the playoff chase. They’re currently 13 points back of the Wild Card. 

A big reason why Detroit has such an atrocious YTD goal differential is that they have given up the most goals in the league (213). That works out to an average of 3.7 allowed per game. As you might imagine, it only gets worse on the road where the average jumps to 4.1 gpg allowed. That game five days ago went Over and so should this one. Buffalo hung five goals on Detroit when they met in January. They are 6-1 Over on Tuesday nights. 10* Over Red Wings/Sabres

8* Purdue (6:30 ET): I cannot stress enough just how loaded the Big 10 is this year. The conference has 12 of its members ranked among my top 40 teams in the country! Perhaps the most interesting of those 12 is Purdue, a 14-10 SU team that I call one of my top 15 in the country! Go ahead and disregard that record as I’ve long believed the Boilermakers are set to go on a big run. We’re already starting to see signs of a surge w/ them winning their last three games, two of which were on the road.

Penn State is ranked (#13) coming into this game and that seems about right to me. The Nittany Lions are having a breakthrough season and lately they’ve been getting the job done for bettors, not only winning six in a row straight up, but covering the spread in all six games as well. That includes wins at Michigan and Michigan State. Because of that they figure to be a popular dog tonight, but I’m going in the opposite direction.

Penn State is just 2-17 SU its last 19 visits to West Lafayette. Purdue is 10-2 SU at home this season and winning by an average of more than 20 PPG. Their last time here saw them absolutely crush a very good Iowa team, 104-68. They followed that up w/ their largest win at Assembly Hall in Indiana in more than 40 years (74-62). Those two games have seen the Boilermakers shoot a jaw-dropping 54% from three-point range. They’ve covered 8 of the 12 home games and are 41-3 SU their L44 here overall. 8* Purdue

10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): Milwaukee is obviously an elite team with few holes as we approach the All-Star Break. In fact, I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say the Bucks are - rather easily - the top team in the league right now. Since X-Mas, they’ve gone 18-2 SU including perfect 4-0 start to February. This stretch includes an easy 21-point win at Sacramento on January 10th, but for a variety of reasons I’m expecting things to be closer here. This will end up being the most points Sacramento gets in any game all season. 

Despite what the final score ended up being, the Kings actually fought valiantly against the Bucks last month, rallying to take the lead in the 3Q after trailing by as many as 18 early. But a -20 discrepancy in attempts at the FT line was too much to overcome as were 16 turnovers and poor 3-point shooting. That loss ended up being the start of a five-game SU/ATS slide for the Kings, but they’ll arrive in Milwaukee in much better form. They’ve won and covered three straight including 122-102 over San Antonio Saturday night. 

Now skeptics will point to the fact that all three wins came in Sacramento. But I’m not expecting a win here. However, the number is such that a play on the Kings plus the points is warranted. They are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they’ve gotten at least 12.5 points from the oddsmakers. Also, there’s a chance Giannis Antetokounmpo may not play tonight for the Bucks (“personal reasons”). So I’d bet this one quickly as the line should come down by several points if Antetokounmpo is out. Regardless, I see the Kings covering. 10* Sacramento

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): For a Monday in February, this shapes up to be a pretty critical game. Both Florida and Philadelphia currently find themselves on the “outside looking in” when it comes to the playoffs. The Flyers are technically tied (w/ Carolina) for the second Wild Card at 67 points. The Panthers are three points back, not to mention two points back of Toronto, who is third in their own division. The problem for Florida here is their recent form. They come in as losers of three in a row and have been outscored 11-4. 

Meanwhile, the Flyers are feeling pretty good about themselves following an impressive 7-2 win at Washington on Saturday. It was their fifth win in the past seven games, all five coming by 3+ goals. One of the two losses was in OT, but it’s the other that should have them quite motivated tonight. Last time playing at home, the Flyers turned in a horrendous effort in getting shutout 5-0 by last place New Jersey. That seems like an anomaly, however, as for the season they’ve gone 18-5-4 SU on home ice. I expect a much better showing tonight obviously.

Florida has been shutout in two of its last three road games plus they were outscored 10-4 in the last two games at home. This downturn follows what had been the hottest stretch of the season for the Panthers as they’d won six in a row. Perhaps the All-Star Break came at the wrong time for them, but whatever the reason for the downturn, I expect it to continue tonight as there’s a big difference in the # of shots these teams have allowed recently (which works in Philly’s favor). 10* Philadelphia

10* Under FSU/Duke (7:00 ET): Duke survived a huge scare Saturday as they rallied to defeat rival North Carolina in overtime, 98-96. Down 13 with just 4 ½ minutes to go in regulation and five with 20 seconds left, the Blue Devils somehow forced overtime and then won at the buzzer. Thus, they’ve five in a row overall, the last three of which all came on the road. It’s the first time Duke swept a three-game road trip in over 40 years! This is a rare situation where a showdown w/ a fellow Top 10 opponent might actually be a letdown spot. 

For the second straight week, Florida State plays on Big Monday. Last week, they faced North Carolina and won a low-scoring affair 65-59 (were 8 pt chalk). The Seminoles followed that up by crushing Miami 99-81, making it three straight wins as well as 13 wins in the last 14 games. Both teams come into tonight at 20-3 SU overall and 10-2 SU in ACC play. It’s obviously a big edge for Duke getting the game in Durham, although FSU did win at L’ville earlier in the year. Both sides have been going Over a lot recently, but given the respective situations, I look for a different kind of game tonight. 

Duke is 7-1 Over its last eight games while Florida State is 7-2 Over its last nine. While tonight’s O/U line is right in line with what we’re accustomed to seeing for both teams, take note that FSU is off its best shooting night in over a month and it came against the last place team in the conference. Duke’s previous scoring effort was obviously aided by OT. We’re looking at two Top 20 teams in terms of defensive efficiency here. FSU has held ACC opponents below 40% shooting so far while Duke isn’t far behind that number here at home. 10* Under FSU/Duke

10* Utah (7:05 ET): From now until the end of the regular season, there figures to be a LOT of movement among the six teams behind the Lakers in the Western Conference. The teams currently seeded #2 through #7 are separated by just five games and most of them have taken a turn at the #2 spot. Utah was once the hottest team in the NBA as from 12/11 through 1/25 they won 19 of 21 games. But prior to scoring a controversial win over Portland on Friday night, they’d lost five in a row. They are 0-6 ATS the L6 games. 

Because of the controversial nature of the victory Friday night (goaltending was not called on what would have been the GW basket for Portland), my guess is there won’t be many people looking to step out and take the Jazz here. But I’m not afraid as they’ve got revenge on the mind here from an embarrassing loss on 1/27 where the Rockets played without both James Harden and Russell Westbrook. That’s what began the Jazz’s current slide. Let’s not forget, they also have revenge for last year’s playoff exit.

Speaking of bad losses, Houston just took one on the chin Friday, losing at Phoenix 127-91. That snapped a four-game win streak. The Rockets have gone 10 games w/o losing two straight, but I’m still liking the points here as Utah has not been a dog since 12.28 when they went to LA and upset the Clippers. They have won (outright) the last three times they’ve been in the underdog role. I’ve got the Jazz rated slightly higher than the Rockets in my own power ratings. 10* Utah

7* NY Rangers (6:05 ET): The Rangers took a tough loss Friday, losing here at home to Buffalo by a score of 3-2. While 11 pts off the playoff pace in the Eastern Conference, it’s not like NY is a bad team. They’re in the black when it comes to goal differential. This will be their 4th straight game where I’m playing on or against. Sadly, I’ve been on the wrong end of the last two. I took them against Buffalo and faded when they beat Toronto. Ironically, the one time I was right, they lost here at MSG to Dallas.

However, I was “spot on” playing against the Kings last night as they were blanked 3-0 in New Jersey. That shutout loss kept LA firmly in the basement of the Pacific Division as their 43 points are second fewest in the sport. They also have a -43 goal differential, which is second worst in the sport. This is clearly a very bad team and it only makes sense to fade them in this second night of a back to back. They are 7-15 SU off a loss by 2+ goals. 

As mentioned in yday’s analysis, the Kings have been a dreadful road team this season. They’ve lost 24 of their 32 road games and been outscored by 1.2 goals per game. The Rangers can put goals on the board as they average 3.5 here at home. The Kings simply won’t be able to “keep up” considering they haven’t scored more than three times in any of their last 10 games (1-8-1 SU) and will be facing rookie sensation Igor Shesterkin in goal. He has a .922 save percentage in five starts w/ the team going 4-1. I see this as a total mismatch. 7* NY Rangers

10* Clemson (6:00 ET): The largest gap in the ACC standings exists between the top three and the rest of the field (three games). After L’ville, Duke & Florida State, the next nine teams are separated by only 2.5 games. These two schools are among that group of nine, but seem to be trending in opposite directions as Notre Dame has won and covered three straight while Clemson is coming off two straight losses. Sometimes though, handicapping a game can be as simple as who has the home court edge. That’s the case here. 

Both Clemson losses in the last week have been on the road. They scored only 44 points against both Wake Forest and Virginia, not something the Tigers should be proud of in the least. But there’s been a bit of a predictable pattern to their games this year, at least in ACC play. The last four road games - all losses with them scoring no more than 62 points. The last four home games - all wins with them scoring at least 71 points. That includes an upset of Duke (79-72, +10.5) back on January 14th, which came on the heels of the program’s 1st ever win at North Carolina. 

Similarly, ND has looked good at home recently with the entirety of the 3-game win streak coming in South Bend. Those three wins also all came against teams in the bottom half of the ACC. We’re about to find out what the Fighting Irish are made of as their next three games are on the road. The Irish are just 2-5 SU outside of South Bend this year. Clemson has proven it can beat the “big boys” (UNC and Duke in a 4-day span) and holds teams to 62.2 PPG at home. This has “bounce back” written all over it. 10* Clemson

10* Over Oregon/Oregon State (10:30 ET): The “Civil War” may not mean as much on the basketball court (compared to the football field), but spirits should be high tonight in Corvallis as Oregon State is having one of its better seasons in a long time. Of course, Oregon has developed into a mainstay atop the Pac 12 and the Ducks come into Saturday as the highest ranked team in the conference and tied for first place with Colorado. These teams are a combined 30-15 Over this season and I look for a high-scoring game.

Oregon is off a loss, but that was to a Stanford team that is quietly one of the best in the country at the defensive end. The Cardinal rank 5th nationally in defensive efficiency (look out for them in the Tournament?) and held the Ducks well below their scoring average on Thursday night. The 70-60 final was emblematic of a Stanford-type game, not an Oregon one, as the Ducks are 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, but 94th in defensive efficiency. It’s a good thing then that they aren’t facing Stanford tonight.

Oregon State plays similar to Oregon. The Beavers are 26th in offensive efficiency, but a horrendous 199th in defensive efficiency. This all but guarantees a bounce back game at the offensive end for the Ducks, who come in averaging 76.8 points per game. Oregon State has won just one of its last six games, leaving them at 13-9 SU, but as I said earlier this is one of the better teams coming out of Corvallis in many years. They shoot 48.2% at home. The Over is 5-0 when the Beavers are the underdog. 10* Over Oregon/Oregon State

10* St. Mary’s (10:00 ET): We all know Gonzaga is “head and shoulders” above the rest of the West Coast Conference, but if there’s one rival known to give them fits it would be St. Mary’s. The Gaels have won two of the last five head to head meetings outright including LY’s WCC Tourney Final. Gonzaga may come into this game at 24-1 SU overall and 10-0 in conference play with those 10 victories coming by an average of 23.0 PPG. But they’ve failed to cover the L3 games and if they were to lose a WCC game outright, it would be this one. Take the points. 

In the last 10 days, I’ve actually faded both of these teams. St. Mary’s, I faded exactly one week ago at BYU. As a dog, they led most of the way and ended up covering the spread in an 81-79 loss. So I was wrong there. The Gaels have since bounced back with a 66-60 win at San Diego, though they did not cover the 11-point spread. Looking at their three WCC losses this year, two have been by two points or less while the other was a quadruple overtime game. Gonzaga may be the most efficient offense in the country but SMU also happens to be in the top 10. 

Gonzaga has gone 751 days w/o losing a regular season conference game. The last loss came January 18th, 2018 -- to St. Mary’s. Despite the perceived invincibility, oddsmakers seem to have caught up to the Zags, who have failed to cover three in a row including our Game of the Week on Santa Clara last Thursday. So let’s make it two straight weeks going against Gonzaga with a GOW play as this is the only time SMU will be a home dog this season. They are allowing only 62.5 PPG at home. 10* St. Mary’s

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The number 13 proved NOT to be unlucky for the Raptors last night as they won their 13th straight game (a franchise record), 115-106 at Indiana. Two nights prior, they beat the Pacers here at home on a buzzer-beater, which was the closest call during the win streak. Now 38-14 SU and in second place in the Eastern Conference, Toronto does find itself in a bit of a tough spot Saturday laying this many points to Brooklyn. This will be only the third time during the win streak that the Raptors have had to play a back to back.

Of course, the Nets won’t have Kyrie Irving in the lineup tonight. But they should be used to that by now as Irving has played in only 20 of the team’s 50 games this season. The Nets are off a couple of impressive home victories, both of which saw them cover the spread. It was double digit victories over the Suns and Warriors, the latter coming by 41 points, the largest MOV the Nets have had in a game all season. That game was played Wednesday, so Brooklyn clearly is the more rested team here.

Health issues aren’t exclusive to the Brooklyn side here. Toronto has been as banged up as almost any team in the league this year, making their WL record all the more impressive. But last night saw Kyle Lowry go down with an injury and he’s not expected to play tonight. That makes three starters absent for the Raptors as both Marc Gasol and Norman Powell are both out indefinitely as well. Brooklyn will be highly motivated here as they’ve lost five straight to the Raptors and nine in a row in Toronto. This is their chance to put an end to a lot of streaks. Take the points. 10* Brooklyn

10* New Jersey (7:05 ET): Two struggling teams facing off in East Rutherford, so why the strong opinion? Well, for starters, the Kings are just in a terrible way right now as they’ve dropped 11 of 13 w/ all but one of those losses coming in regulation. Here they find themselves in the midst of a four-game road trip out East and the first two games (against Washington and the Islanders) did not go well. New Jersey hasn’t been much better since the All-Star Break, but is coming off a shutout win at Philadelphia (5-0!) on Thursday. 

Poor play in the third period has plagued both clubs. The Kings were bit by that more recently, blowing leads of 2-0 and 3-1 to the Islanders Thursday. They gave up three goals in the third to fall to 8-19-4 SU on the road this season. There are only two teams in the league (Ottawa and Detroit) who have fewer road wins this season. Los Angeles really struggles at both ends of the ice (-1.1 gpg on the road), but giving up 4+ goals EIGHT times in the 2-10-1 stretch has really hurt. There’s nothing here to indicate a turnaround. The Kings are even 7-13 SU when facing fellow teams w/ losing records. 

The Devils were outshot severely in that 5-0 win at Philadelphia two nights ago. But they’ll take the two points after losing three straight here at home - all by one goal. The last time New Jersey won a home game was January 12th against a Tampa Bay team that came in red hot. If they can beat the Lightning, they can certainly beat the Kings. Furthermore, the length of time that has elapsed between home victories should have them highly motivated tonight. 10* New Jersey

10* Under Predators/Oilers (7:05 ET): The St. Louis Blues lead the Western Conference with 72 points. Behind the Stanley Cup Champs, 11 teams (7 of whom will make the playoffs) are separated by just eight points. These are two of them. Nashville has been pretty good on the road this year (15-9-3) and that has them fourth in the Central Division and one point back of the last Wild Card spot. Edmonton is safer (for now) as they are 3rd in the Pacific, but a 6-3 loss here at home to San Jose Thursday was not a “good look.”

Most Edmonton games of late have been pretty high-scoring. The exception would be a shutout loss to Arizona (3-0) that took place earlier in the week. Other than that, every game the team has been involved in since Jan 6th has seen at least six total goals scored. Oddsmakers have taken notice by posting a high total for tonight’s game. When the Oilers hosted Nashville last month, it was a 4-2 final in their favor. That was an Under (O/U line was 6.5), the 5th time in the last 6 meetings these two have gone Under. 

The Predators have gone Under in three straight, none of those games seeing more than five total goals scored. So something will have to give Saturday. Over its L10 games, Nashville has scored three or fewer goals seven times. So that, combined with the history vs. Edmonton, leads me to the Under. The last three visits to Edmonton have all gone Under. The Oilers are 16-10 Under this year vs. teams that have losing records. 10* Under Predators/Oilers

8* Temple (12:00 ET): We revisit the American Conference early Saturday afternoon as SMU visits Philly to face Temple. For the past several years, SMU has been a really good home team. But outside of Moody Coliseum, they are just 9-19 straight up the last three seasons. That includes just 1-3 SU on the conference road this season with the most recent defeat coming at Cincinnati, a little over a week ago. Since suffering that 22-point defeat, the Mustangs have played only one time. It was a 15-point home win over last place Tulane. 

Temple hasn’t been as good as usual this year (just 9-13 SU) and since we turned the calendar to 2020 things have really taken a downturn. The Owls are only 2-8 SU their L10 games after a 79-65 loss at Memphis earlier in the week. But they did beat arguably the top team in the American, Wichita State, here at home. They also won their last home game, 76-64 over East Carolina, covering a 10.5-pt spread. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, Temple has gone 6-1 ATS the L3 seasons.

Three of SMU’s four road wins this year have been by four points or less, so the overall record could be a lot worse. Temple might only be 6-4 SU at home this year, but they are 27-11 SU here the L3 seasons. SMU is -1.8 points per game on the road while Temple is +7.4. I don’t think the Owls should be the dog here. I know SMU won by 16 in Dallas, but that was a terrible shooting night for Temple as they made only 32.7% of their shots, including a stunning 12 of 37 on 2-pt attempts. While SMU may lead the conference in scoring, Temple held them below their average last month and has allowed 68 pts or less in 14 of 22 games. 8* Temple

10* Over Blazers/Jazz (10:35 ET): For more than a month, Utah was the hottest team in basketball. From 12/11 through 1/25, they won 19 of 21 games to get as high as second place in the Western Conference. But all of a sudden, things have taken a sharp turn with them losing five straight while also going 0-5 ATS. Tonight they host a team that has ironically swung in the other direction. Portland is 5-1 SU/ATS its last six games to get within four games of .500 and 2.5 games of the 8th and final playoff spot.

The Blazers played last night and won 125-117 at home vs. San Antonio. A 40-point 4Q is what propelled them to victory as Damian Lillard had another great individual performance and the team shot 53.3% overall including 18 of 37 from three-point range. They got to 125 pts despite taking only 12 free throw attempts. It was the 4th straight Blazers that went Over the total and I should also point out that it was the eighth time in their L10 games surrendering at least 117 points. Last time on the road, they gave up 127 at Denver. 

These teams just met Saturday in Portland w/ the Blazers coming out on top by a score of 124-107. Four days later the Jazz played in Denver (one day after Portland did) and they lost 98-95. After some poor shooting efforts, I look for the Jazz to pick it up offensively tonight at home where they average 111 PPG on 48% shooting. Wednesday was the first time they were held below 100 points since December 9th. Whether they win or lose, a bounce back offensively is all but inevitable here. 10* Over Blazers/Jazz

10* Illinois (8:00 ET): We all know just how loaded the Big 10 is. So these two teams should be commended for entering Friday night’s showdown on FS-1 in a first place tie with one another. Maryland being tied for first is not that big of a surprise as the Terps were expected to be near the top of the league standings (most had them finishing 2nd behind Michigan State). Illinois is a surprise as they were pegged for a “middle of the pack” finish. While their seven-game win streak was snapped Sunday in Iowa, the Illini are my pick to get the cash Friday as they are back in Champaign-Urbana where they’ve gone 12-1 SU this season. 

Maryland comes into this game on a five-game win streak and has held its last two opponents to less than 37% shooting. They are coming off a hard-fought 54-51 win over Rutgers Tuesday night as they held the Scarlet Knights to 33.8%. But that was in College Park. The Terrapins are just 2-4 SU in “true” road games this season and despite winning the last two, their defense wasn’t nearly as tight as both opponents (Northwestern, Indiana) shot north of 50% from the field. 

Illinois should be the more motivated team tonight as not only are they coming off a loss, but they’ve also got revenge on the mind from a 59-58 loss at Maryland back in December. That game saw the Illini blow a 14-pt halftime lead. They are the more rested team coming into this rematch with two extra days of prep time. They have covered all times this year as a home favorite of three points or less. 10* Illinois

7* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): After playing against the Rangers in their last two games (won one, lost one), I’ll back them here against a team that is really struggling and playing on no rest. Buffalo just lost for the fifth time in the last six games last night. It was against Detroit, the worst team in the league. While the Sabres did pick up a point by forcing overtime, they initially trailed 3-0 at home. That’s not good. The Rangers may be second to last in a tough Metropolitan Division, but they have a positive goal differential on the year. 

The Rangers are averaging a healthy 3.5 goals per game here at MSG and shouldn’t have much difficulty scoring tonight against a Sabres team that has given up 10 goals in the last two games. The Blueshirts just hung five goals on a good Toronto team Wednesday night. They’ve won three straight against sub.-500 foes and have really had Buffalo’s number the last few years, going 6-1 SU in seven head to head matchups. That includes 4-0 here at MSG including a 6-2 win back in October. 

The Sabres have a .333 win percentage over the last 28 games, so their struggles aren’t confined to just recent times. They have gone just 8-14-4 SU on the road this season. Only two teams (Ottawa, Detroit) have fewer road victories (ironically both division rivals!). Even worse is the fact Buffalo is 0-4 SU this season after playing three straight game at home. This being the second game of a back to back obviously doesn’t help matters. 7* NY Rangers

8* Harvard (5:00 ET): One of college sports’ most prominent rivalries is renewed on the basketball court Friday night with Harvard taking on Yale. Yale is the consensus top team in the Ivy League this year and they should be considering they not only boast a perfect conference record (4-0 SU) but are also 16-5 SU overall and 13-4 ATS. Those four conference wins have all been by double digits and by an average of 17.8 points per game. They are definitely a team to be reckoned with.

However, Yale is not only facing a chief rival here but also a team that is an amazing 20-4 ATS the L24 times it has been an underdog. While Harvard is 0-4 ATS in Ivy League play and 0-5 ATS its L5 overall, they were actually favored in all of those games. After opening the conference slate by sweeping a home and home from Dartmouth, last week was not a good one for the Crimson as they lost by three at Penn and by one at Princeton. Incredibly, seven of Harvard’s last eight games have been decided by five points or less. But because they were favored in all but one, they haven’t been doing well ATS.

But the one time in that stretch that Harvard was catching points, they won outright at UC Irvine (top team in Big West). As mentioned above, the Crimson have been nothing short of extraordinary as underdogs, not only covering 20 of the last 24 opportunities but also winning 11 of those outright! They may only be 1-4 SU/ATS vs. Yale the L2 seasons, but the one win came here in New Haven last season - as six-point pups. While there’s no Bryce Aiken (injured since December), Harvard can absolutely still win this game. Yale has yet to beat or even face a top four Ivy League team. 8* Harvard

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET): The Oilers have only managed to split a quartet of games since the All-Star Break, but remain in second place in the Pacific with 62 points. They are only three points back of first place Vancouver, but only two ahead of fifth place Calgary, who they recently defeated 8-3 on the road. The last game didn’t go nearly as well though as the Oilers were blanked 3-0 at Arizona. They’ll look to rebound tonight vs. a San Jose team that has the worst overall goal differential (-39) in the Western Conference. 

Like the Oilers, the Sharks have managed to split four games since the All-Star Break. They too just won at Calgary, 3-1 on Tuesday, but an Alberta sweep seems unlikely based on the fact this club hasn’t won B2B road games since Jan 2-4. Since a decent 15-12-1 start to the season, the Sharks are just 8-15-3 SU. There have been only two occasions total where they’ve won B2B games during that time.

Early in the season, these division rivals split a pair of games in San Jose. The road has generally been unkind to San Jose where they are 9-14-3. It’s not just a bad record either. They’re getting outscored by 1.2 goals per game on the road. That’s the fourth worst differential in the league right now, ahead of only Ottawa, New Jersey and Detroit. Edmonton is 8-2-2 its last 12 games and has gone 11-4 this year when off a loss by 2+ goals. 8* Edmonton

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Wild are in last place in the Central Division with only 54 points. But keep the following in mind. That’s easily the most points any of the four last place teams in the league have. The Wild are also just six points back of the Wild Card in the Western Conference. If they are to make a move, it has to be now when they are in the midst of a long stretch of games at home. The last six games have all been played here in the Twin Cities and after tomorrow’s game at Dallas, the next four will be as well. 

Tonight is a game vs. Vancouver. What should immediately jump out to you here is the last place team in the Central is a slight favorite over the first place team in the Pacific. Obviously, home ice advantage needs to be factored in, but who’s favored here should be a real “eye-opener.” Of course, the Wild are a much better team at home than they are on the road. They have a 15-7-4 record here at the XCel Center as opposed to 9-15-2 SU on the road. In addition to beating Chicago Tuesday night, Minnesota owns victories over Tampa Bay and Dallas (7-0!) on this current homestand.

Now the Canucks did come here on January 12th and pick up a 4-1 victory. But I don’t like their chances of winning twice here in Minnesota. This is the end of a five-game road trip for the Canucks and the last two haven’t gone well as they’ve lost to Carolina and Boston, the latter coming in shutout fashion Tuesday (4-0). The situation here totally favors a Wild team that had to play short-handed EIGHT different times in the last meeting w/ Vancouver. 10* Minnesota

10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): Anyone that’s been following the Sixers this year knows that their home vs road splits are as dramatic as any team in the league. While 22-2 SU at home (+10.4 PPG), Philadelphia is 9-18 on the road and being outscored by 4.7 PPG. The L3 games have really driven the point at home as they’ve lost by double digits at Atlanta (10), Boston (21) and Miami (31). Tonight they’re in Milwaukee to face the best team in basketball. While history certainly suggests the 76ers will lose this game, it won’t be by as much as you might think.

Note that even with the horrible start to the current road trip, the Sixers are only getting outscored on average of 4.7 points per game on the road. Obviously, that number has gone up over the L3 games. The Sixers are just 9-17-1 ATS on the road, but what this is a reflection of is they rarely - if ever - are a dog of this size. Previous to this, the most points the 76ers have ever gotten in a game this year was 6.5. Also remember that they beat the Bucks 121-109 on X-Mas Day (at home) and led that game by 27 going into the 4Q.

Now there’s no denying that the Bucks are an awesome team that’s out for revenge. But an interesting thing I’m seeing is that they are “only” 9-6 SU vs. .500 or better opponents this season and 6-9 ATS. So they’ve really been feasting on non-winning teams. Philadelphia may not be a good road team, but they are still a good team overall and come in with a 31-20 overall SU record. Expect a tight game that might even be a little lower-scoring than anticipated. 10* Philadelphia

10* Tulsa (7:00 ET): You may be surprised to learn that it is Tulsa - not Wichita State, Memphis or even Houston - leading the American Conference right now with a 7-1 SU record. The Golden Hurricane picked up a huge 54-51 win over Wichita State this past weekend, a game in which they were at home but also getting points. Incredibly, Tulsa’s last four SU wins have all come as underdogs. They’ve now won and covered each of their last six games, five of them coming as underdogs. Thus, it’s interesting that tonight they are favored. 

While favored, it still seems as if the market isn’t respecting the leaders in the American. It’s only a small number that they are laying to a UConn team that is subpar at best. The Huskies come in at 11-10 SU overall, but are 0-5 in “true” road games and just 2-6 SU in conference games. This once proud program has taken a severe nosedive in recent years. It’s only win over the L6 games came as a 4.5-pt home favorite vs. Temple. They were beaten 70-63 at Memphis on Saturday, failing to cover as 5-pt dogs.

This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. Tulsa, not surprisingly, won the first. It was a 79-75 final where the Golden Hurricane came in 5.5 point underdogs. UConn shot poorly in that game (below 40%) and that should be expected again here w/ Tulsa only allowing 60.4 PPG at home. On the flip side, Tulsa made just three 3-pointers in the first meeting and that number should at least double here. In a battle between the first place and second to last place team in a conference, the former should be laying more than this at home. It’s that simple. Tulsa is an underrated team right now. 10* Tulsa

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): I was surprised to see the Maple Leafs lose their last game, Monday to Florida (5-3), as they were at home and by all reports the recipient of the “sharper” wagering. The Leafs came into that game on a three-game win streak, but now sit one point back of the Panthers, who lost an overtime game in Columbus last night. It’s not like the Leafs weren’t in position to win Monday’s game. They led 2-1 going into the third period. It also didn’t help that goalie Frederik Andersen had to exit the game with a concussion.

Meanwhile, I was certainly NOT surprised to see the Rangers lose 5-3 on Monday. After all, I played their opponent. That was the Dallas Stars, a team that has given up the fewest goals in the league this season. Toronto isn’t exactly as sharp in that department, but maybe they don’t have to be considering the Rangers have averaged just 2.2 goals over their L5 games. The only two wins NY has during that time have come at the expense of the league’s worst team, Detroit. 

Both teams come into this game w/ issues between the pipes. Andersen’s status remains uncertain after leaving the game vs. Florida. For the Rangers, it’s a murkier situation as they are juggling netminders even though it’s pretty clear Henrik Lundqvist is an inferior option when compared to Alexandar Georgiev. Andersen’s backup, Michael Hutchinson, has won his L4 starts. Georgiev, while better than Lundqvist, still only has an .890 save percentage at home. So Toronto, who averages a league-best 3.8 gpg on the road, should “steal” one here. 10* Toronto