10* Over Newcastle United/Arsenal (3:00 ET): After winning four in a row across all competitions, Arsenal had to settle for a scoreless draw with Crystal Palace on Thursday, leaving the Gunners 11th in the Premier League table. On the bright side, it was a fourth consecutive clean sheet, a pretty remarkable run for a side that was struggling in the early part of the campaign. While it’s still going to take a lot to catch those at the top of the table, a full three points should be expected here as they face a Newcastle United club they recently down in FA Cup action. 

Newcastle suffered a humiliating defeat its last time out, 1-0 against previously winless Sheffield United. That loss came on the back of the 2-0 loss to Arsenal in the FA Cup. Not only are they winless in their last six across all competitions, Newcastle has been kept clean in four of their last five matches. This has prompted manager Steve Bruce to consider a change in strategy and you may now see only four back on defense, rather than five.

While still seven points clear of the relegation zone, Newcastle sits 15th in the table. I expect them to be a lot more aggressive here. The aggressive nature is still unlikely to translate into victory, but I expect the Magpies to at least get on the scoresheet. The flip side of the aggressive approach is that they may open themselves up for more Arsenal scoring. The Gunners have won five straight over the Magpies, keeping them clean in the last four. That’s a streak I can’t see continuing. A 2-1 Arsenal win is the most likely outcome here and I’ll take the Over. 10* Over Newcastle United/Arsenal

8* AC Milan (2:45 ET): This ML somewhat reminds me of yday’s play on Tottenham. It’s just too low for the Serie A table leaders AC Milan, who I can’t see losing or even settling for a draw against a Cagliari side that is in terrible form right now. The Rossoneri currently have 40 points, which has them level with rival Internazionale atop the standings for the time being. They’ve been beaten just one time this season and that was by 9-time defending champ Juventus two weeks ago. Getting the full three points here will be a priority.

Cagliari can only think about avoiding relegation at this point. They are on a 10-match winless streak across all competitions and have lost four straight here in Serie A, the side’s longest losing streak since 2013. This precipitous slide has them down in 17th, only one point clear of the relegation zone. Midweek saw them get eliminated from the Coppa Italia as they were soundly beaten by Atalanta 3-1. This particular fixture has been quite unkind to Cagliari as they’ve won only one of their past 16 home matches against AC Milan, losing nine.

Meanwhile, Milan is through to the quarterfinals of the Coppa Italia by virtue of a win over Torino (on penalty kicks) last Tuesday. That took place two days before Cagliari’s exit from the tournament, so the favorite has the additional bonus of two extra days off between matches. Plus Zlatan Ibrahimovic is back in the starting lineup. He’s scored in each of his last six league matches vs. Cagliari, so look for a little added “offensive punch” from the visitors, who happen to have also kept a clean sheet against three of their previous four opponents across all competitions. 8* AC Milan

10* St. John’s (2:30 ET): It just feels right to be able to once again call these teams conference rivals. UConn has rejoined the Big East this season and this will be the first meeting w/ St, John’s since 2013. The Huskies not only comes in ranked (#25), but they’ve covered six in a row. The Huskies’ only loss came by two points against Creighton (a top 10 team). They’ve won four straight (SU) since including a 3-0 January record with all those games coming on the road. UConn hasn’t taken the court in a week due to a game with #3 Villanova being postponed. This game will be on FOX Monday afternoon.

St. John’s hasn’t had nearly the amount of problems with COVID cancellations than UConn has. The Red Storm have played nearly twice the number of games the Huskies have and come into today sporting a 7-7 SU record. It’s been a bit of a struggle recently as the team started 5-1, but has now dropped six of its last eight including a 2-point home loss to Marquette on Saturday. As an underdog, the Johnnies have struggled and they are also winless on the road (0-4 SU). They are in both roles Monday, but I’m expecting this to be a strong effort off the narrow loss 48 hours ago. 

This boils down to the fact that I feel UConn is due for a bad game. Coming off a week layoff and playing a rare weekday afternoon game, it just “feels” like this might be it. St. John’s has had several narrow losses, just not Saturday, while UConn’s won a couple close ones. The Huskies are without leading scorer James Bouknight and quite frankly were lucky to beat Depaul last week as they were outrebounded and shot the ball poorly. Depaul was careless with the basketball and that’s why UConn won the game. St. John’s averages almost 80 PPG and will be a lot tougher to beat. Take the points. 10* St. Johns

10* Under Pelicans/Kings (9:05 ET): Sacramento’s defense has been so bad that it almost has “no choice” but to improve. The Kings are dead last in the league in a variety of defensive categories and as a result are just 5-8 SU on the year. They have allowed 122 or more points in seven straight games and the last two they gave up 132 and 138. That makes tonight’s play on the Under quite the “contrarian” call, but I’ve got reason to believe the new defensive system that HC Luke Walton is implementing will start to take hold.

New Orleans is not a great offensive team. They are averaging just 105.9 PPG for the season, which is 28th (third worst) in the league. On Friday, they were held under 100 points for the fourth time this season despite shooting better than 60% in the 1st half. Now they were facing the Lakers, who are at the opposite end of the spectrum from the Kings in terms of defense. But still, scoring 37 points in a half is really bad (which is what the Pelicans did in the 2H vs. LA). They are 5-1 Under on the road so far this season. 

That game vs. the Lakers stayed Under the total as did the Pelicans’ first five games of the season. In between that, they went Over in five straight. But tonight will mark the highest O/U line for them since the third game of the season. Sacramento has been facing some very good offensive teams of late, which is why the Over is 6-1 their L7 games. But they’re not facing a good offensive team here. Also, the Kings have scored 100 or less in two of their last four games. New Orleans can hold them to a low number too as they rank in the upper half of the league in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Pelicans/Kings

8* Under Bucs/Saints (6:40 ET): The two regular season meetings between these teams produced 57 and 41 points. New Orleans won both handily, 34-23 and 38-3. The amount of scoring that took place in the first meeting (which was all the way back in Week 1) was a bit misleading when you consider the Saints got a defensive TD (pick-six) and two other scoring drives began inside the 35-yard line following TB turnovers.That’s why I took the Under in the rematch on November 8th, which cashed easily. The O/U line isn’t much different here and while the final score may not end up as lopsided, the number of total points will be similar. 

Going into that second meeting, New Orleans had a 7-0 Over record on the season. Since then, they’ve gone Under in 7 of 10 games including last week’s 21-9 Wild Card win against Chicago. The only TD the Saints allowed came on the final play of the game, a “garbage time” score if there ever was one. They held the Bears to just 239 total yards. While the Bucs’ offense is clearly superior to that of the Bears, note that two of the Bucs’ three lowest yardage games this season came against the Saints. They averaged just 252 YPG in the two losses. As I mentioned in last week’s analysis, New Orleans is top five in total and scoring defense this year. 

But Tampa Bay has a good defense too. In fact, they are #1 in the league at stopping the run, which comes in handy when facing Alvin Kamara. While they won easily, it’s not like the Saints’ offense was moving up and down the field last week. They’ve been held below 300 total yards four different times this season and three of those were with Drew Brees starting under center. One of them was in Week 1. The Saints’ last four playoff games have all gone Under.  These teams are obviously familiar with one another and I expect a relatively low-scoring third meeting. 8* Under Bucs/Saints

8* Bradley (4:00 ET): These teams just played Saturday and while Bradley “only” won 69-60, they are still being undervalued for this rematch. The respective shooting percentages from yesterday’s game are very interesting to look at. Bradley shot an incredible 61.4% from the floor while Evansville finished at just 37.7%. You may see those numbers and think there’s no way that kind of difference will repeat itself. But consider Bradley was only 3 of 11 from three-point range (27.3%) while Evansville was 14 of 34 (41.2%).

Making 11 more threes than your opponent and still losing by nine is a pretty bad deal if you’re Evansville (or any other team for that matter). I just don’t see there being any way that discrepancy repeats itself again Sunday. So that’s bad news for the Purple Aces, who made only SIX two-point field goals in yday’s game. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a low number! Meanwhile, Bradley shot 24 of 33 from inside the arc, so they’ve got a clear edge down low in this particular matchup. 

Evansville is now just 1-4 SU on the road this season. They are 6-7 SU overall and did cover six straight games at one point, but consider them overachievers as they’ve been favored just twice in their last eight games. They’ve now lost two straight as they fell at home, 73-68, to Illinois State last Sunday. Bradley has won two straight as they beat Northern Iowa by two on Monday. The Braves have won four in a row at home and have beaten Evansville six straight times by an average of 11 PPG. They have huge edges down low and defensively. 8* Bradley

10* Under Browns/Chiefs (3:05 ET): The expectation here is for this to be a very high-scoring game. Just look at the total. It’s not only the highest of the weekend, but has a good shot to close as the highest total for ANY Divisional Round matchup in history! Even for the Chiefs, the current number would be the highest for any game this season. This is all due to Cleveland’s shocking performance last week where they upset the Steelers 48-37 in Pittsburgh. But as I’ll get into, there were plenty of “extenuating circumstances” that led to that high score. I believe this number is simply too high and I’m going Under. 

Last Sunday was quite a special night in Cleveland. The Browns won their first playoff game in more than a quarter century and did so in improbable fashion. They were up 28-0 at the end of the first quarter! How could that happen? Well, simply put, the Steelers imploded. On the very first play from scrimmage they snapped the ball into the end zone, allowing the Browns to recover and score a TD. After that, Ben Roethlisberger threw two 1Q interceptions, setting the Browns up in “plus-territory.” One drive began on the Steelers’ 15-yard line. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is not going to play as poorly as Big Ben did. Also, the Chiefs’ defense is pretty good! They allow just 22.3 PPG at home. 

While no one expects the Browns’ offense to duplicate LW’s performance, there is (rightly) some concern about the defense’s ability to stop Mahomes. Fortunately, they will be getting back two defensive backs - Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson - from the COVID list. The fact the Browns gave up so many yards passing last week is a bit misleading as Pittsburgh had no choice but to pass on almost every down. The Chiefs have not scored more than 33 points in any of their previous six games and the last time Mahomes was on the field, they scored just 17 against a not good Falcons defense. The Under isn’t just 15-7 the Browns L22 after scoring 30+ their previous game, it’s also 21-10 if they gave up 30+ in their previous game. 10* Under Browns/Chiefs

10* Memphis (3:00 ET): Memphis has failed to cover six in a row and is just 2-8 ATS on the season. But things should change today as they face Tulsa for the second time. This spread is as off as any I’ve seen in awhile. The Tigers were 9.5-point favorites when they hosted Tulsa on December 21st. While they lost that game 56-49, my personal power ratings still have them significantly favored in this revenge spot. Oddsmakers opened them as underdogs, which appears to be a mistake as they were quickly bet to the role of favorite. I’ll follow the money on this one. In that first meeting, there wasn’t much offense to speak of. I do find it incredible that Memphis found a way to lose, at home, despite holding Tulsa to just 19 points in the first half! Things took a dramatic turn after the break with the Golden Hurricane outscoring the Tigers 37-22. Neither team shot well with Tulsa making only 34.7% of their FG attempts and Memphis making only 32.1%. The teams combined to go a horrendous 10 of 41 from three-point range. The difference came at the FT line where Tulsa made 17 of 28 compared to just 10 of 21 for Memphis. Anfernee Hardaway’s team has had their last three scheduled games all postponed due to COVID, so they should be “itching” to take the court Sunday. They haven’t played since December 29th! So they’ll be fresh. Meanwhile, Tulsa just lost by 19 at Wichita State on Wednesday, snapping a six-game win streak. As well as they’d been playing, the Golden Hurricane come in averaging just 61.7 PPG and Memphis is a stout defensive team. I believe in my power ratings and the fact Memphis is better than its record (they’ve been favored in every game) while Tulsa is not as good as theirs. 10* Memphis

8* Massachusetts (2:30 ET): UMass is 4-3 SU, which has to be considered disappointing as all three SU losses came when they were favored. But those three losses - to Northeastern, Bryant and George Mason - were all by five points or less. So the Minutemen could easily be coming into Sunday with a better won-loss record. They’ve definitely turned things around over the last week or so, beating LaSalle and Rhode Island, the latter being a close game that went their way (80-78) and it was an upset as the Minutemen were three-point home underdogs.

Now they are road favorites and should have little difficulty beating a Fordham team that has yet to break 55 points in any game this season. If you recall, I just played against Fordham Wednesday afternoon when they faced St. Bonaventure. That ended up being a somewhat close call with the Bonnies prevailing 68-54 as 11-point road favorites. The Rams scored only 17 points in the second half as their offensive woes continued. Not only have they yet to score more than 55 in any of their five games, but they are shooting a dreadful 34% from the field, including 23% from three-point range.

As I mentioned in Wednesday’s writeup, Fordham was picked to finish last in the Atlantic 10 this year. You’re starting to see why. Three of their four losses have been by double digits and two of those were by 24 and 37 points. They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country. So this should be easy pickings for a UMass team that is averaging 85.3 PPG. The Minutemen have scored at least 75 in every game and beat La Salle twice, by 19 and 16, which is noteworthy as Fordham lost to the Explorers by 37. 8* Massachusetts. 

10* Tottenham Hotspur (9:00 AM ET): Despite a six-match unbeaten streak (across all competitions) and the second best goal differential (+14) in the Premier League, the Spurs still sit in sixth place, six points adrift from table leaders Manchester United. But they will enter Sunday just two points back of fourth, meaning a win here would place them in Champions League qualifying position. With four of the top seven teams in the EPL facing off elsewhere this week, Tottenham MUST grab the full three points here. 

Sheffield United is simply trying to avoid relegation. Even after last week’s surprise win over Newcastle United, their first of the entire campaign, they face a tall order. Still sitting at the bottom of the table with only five points, Sheffield is six points back of the second to last place team (West Brom) and a whopping 11 points back of 17th place Burnley, whom they’d need to pass to avoid relegation. Beating Newcastle 1-0 was actually Sheffield’s second consecutive win as they were victorious in the FA Cup over Bristol Rovers last Saturday. 

But before these B2B victories, Sheffield had been winless over an incredible 22 consecutive matches, a streak which went all the way back to July! Their 17-match winless streak to open the Premier League season was the longest in history. I know that Tottenham has had a nasty habit of “turning victories into draws” (see Wolverhampton and Fulham), but Sheffield is just a dreadful side and there’s no excuse not to pick up the full three here. Sheffield has lost 15 of 18 domestically and tied for last with just nine goals scored all season. Tottenham has conceded the second fewest number of times (16). I foresee a motivated effort from the favorite, who has not beaten Sheffield in any of the L3 fixtures (1 L, 2D). 10* Tottenham Hotspur

10* Atlanta (10:05 ET): I guess it’s time to “pump the brakes” on that Hawks’ bandwagon as the team has now dropped five of six following what was an impressive 4-1 SU start to the season. They just lost last night in Utah, 116-92, a result I did not care for as an Over bettor. That was the Hawks’ seventh straight game to go Under, yet oddsmakers are still expecting a high-scoring game here as they face Portland. I’ll stick with taking the points here as the underdog should be pretty desperate for a win. 

The Blazers were also blown out in their last game, losing 111-87 here at home to Indiana. While they had won four in a row before that, two of the wins were against Sacramento and another was vs. Minnesota. The other was a 1-pt win over Toronto, who is struggling. Portland is now just 1-5 ATS this season at home where it has been outscored. They are a bottom five team in the league in defensive efficiency, which is not a good sign. Neither is the fact Jusuf Nurkic broke his wrist Thursday and will be out indefinitely. 

Atlanta could not buy a bucket last night as they went 5 of 28 from three-point range and watched Utah go on a 21-0 run to open a 29-point lead. As horrible a performance as that was, the Hawks are obviously going to shoot the ball better tonight being that they are facing a poor defensive team. Trae Young in particular is due for a big game. The Hawks had been 3-0 ATS in the underdog role prior to last night’s loss, which was their largest of the season. Teams are often undervalued in the second night of a back to back, especially if they’re off a loss, and that’s the case here. Take the points. 10* Atlanta

10* Baltimore (8:05 ET): Two of the league’s hottest teams square off Saturday night in the Divisional Round. I’m betting big on the Ravens. While Buffalo is on a seven-game win streak, Baltimore has won six in a row and covered seven straight. The Bills just had their own eight-game ATS win snapped last week. Though their fans could hardly care as the franchise FINALLY got the proverbial “monkey off its back” by winning in the postseason for the first time in a quarter century. But they were a bit lucky to win considering the Colts outgained them 472-397. In fact, all nine Indianapolis drives ended in Bills’ territory! The Bills’ defense forced only two punts the entire game and both were in the 1Q! 

Baltimore had to overcome an early 1Q deficit to win its Wild Card Game, which was sweet revenge after what happened against Tennessee in LY’s playoffs. But I thought the Ravens were pretty clearly the better team last week. They outgained the Titans nearly 2:1 (401-209). With the Bills’ defense struggling for much of last week, I expect the Ravens offense to put up a big number here. Their strength is running the ball and that happens to the weakness of the Bills’ defense which has allowed 150+ rush yards five times this season. Lamar Jackson and company have had no issues scoring down the stretch, averaging 34.3 PPG during the six-game win streak. The Ravens ended up leading the league in scoring differential in the regular season. 

So this will likely come down to Baltimore’s defense being able to stop Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense. I think they’re up for the challenge. Allen’s two top receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are still battling injuries and RB Moss is out, leaving Devin Singletary as the primary ball carrier. With the weather forecast calling for snow, that’s a benefit to the team that likes to run more (which is Baltimore). I do NOT think the Ravens should be underdogs here, but I’ll gladly take the points as they are 9-2 ATS their L11 as dogs, including seven outright wins. Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS on the road. 10* Baltimore

8* LA Rams (4:35 ET): A majority of the headlines referred to the Rams’ Wild Card victory over the Seahawks as “shocking.” But it was no shock to me. I backed them. While it was a little surprising to see them score 30 points with Jared Goff being called into emergency duty, I specifically cited the Rams’ defense as a reason they might pull the upset. I don’t think people realize how good this team, specifically its defense, really is. The Rams had the best yards per play differential in the league during the regular season and their defense was #1 in scoring, total yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Going into the Divisional Round, we know Goff will be starting and I’ll take the Rams plus the points again. 

Green Bay defied regression to go 13-3 SU for the second straight regular season. Aaron Rodgers is the likely MVP this year. To be clear, when I talk about “defying regression,” I’m speaking of the fact the Pack went an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU in one-score games a year ago. That usually guarantees a fewer # of total wins the following season, but it didn’t here and that’s largely because of the play of Rodgers. Green Bay had a much better YTD point differential in 2020 (+140) than they did in ‘19 (+63). They come into the playoffs on a real roll, winners of six straight games, all by seven points or more. But only one of those victories came against a team that finished with a winning record. 

I’m not going to put much stock in Goff’s 0-2 record when gametime temperature is 32 degrees or lower as that is a very small sample-size. Like they have much of the season, it’ll be the defense carrying the Rams anyway. Aaron Donald is going to play, which is key. So is the fact Jalen Ramsey will be charged with covering Rodgers’ favorite target Davante Adams. The Rams’ defense has allowed more than 24 points in just three games this season. This team is 5-2 ATS and STRAIGHT UP as an underdog and is a perfect 6-0 ATS/SU coming off a division game. Even with the bye, I don’t think this spread should be higher than five points. Take the points. 8* LA Rams

6* Over 1.5 Ponzinibbio/Li (4:00 ET): This is a fight at 170lbs (welterweight), scheduled for three rounds and it will take place on the main card on ABC. I see it making it well into the second round, if not to the scorecards. All we need is to hit the halfway mark of Round 2 to cash this bet. I think we get there. 

Santiago Ponzinibbio is coming off a long layoff, for a litany of reasons. Injuries, a life-threatening staph infection and COVID-19 make this the first time he’ll be stepping back in the cage since November 2018. That’s over two years ago. My guess is we’re going to see a bit of an apprehensive start from him. Ponzinibbio is a veteran with a 27-3 career record and he’s won his last seven fights. So I don’t see him making many mistakes either. Three of his last five fights have gone to decision and one of the two that didn’t was a five-round fight that ended in fourth.

Jingliang Li comes in at 17-6 and could be a sneaky underdog here. But he too is known for slow starts to his fights. The first Chinese UFC fighter, Li has been a little inconsistent through his time with the promotion. He’s coming off a decision loss to Neil Magny (who Ponzinibbio beat his last time out) in March. So he too has not fought since the pandemic. Not to beat a dead horse, but I just get a feeling this fight is gonna get off to a slow start. Three of Li’s last five fights have gone to decision as well. 6* Over 1.5 Ponzinibbio/Li

10* Florida (4:00 ET): The Gators went almost three weeks without playing a game in December. Since returning to the court “full-time,” they’ve gone 3-2 SU including a key win over Ole Miss, 72-63, in Gainesville earlier in the week. Now they head to Starkville where they’ll take on a Miss State team that lost its “shooting touch” in a 56-55 loss to Texas A&M on Wednesday. That was the fewest points scored in a game by the Bulldogs since the season opener. They had topped 80 in six of their previous eight contests. While the tendency is to back the home team in a bounce back spot, that’s not the case here as Florida is just plain better. 

Of course, the big story this season with Florida was the on-court collapse of Keyontae Johnson, back on 12/12 vs. Florida State. It was after that the team went nearly three weeks without playing. The Gators have also had to endure players missing games due to COVID, such as Scottie Lewis, who did not play in the last game. Things were not looking great following losses to Alabama and Kentucky, but then came the win Tuesday over Ole Miss where the Gators really turned up the defense. Remember that this team beat LSU a couple weeks ago. They are also playing with double revenge here (0-2 vs. Miss St L2 seasons). 

MSU has lost four games this year in which it held a halftime lead. Wednesday vs. Texas A&M was the latest. They led the Aggies by 10 at the break in that one, only to score just 22 points in the 2H. A&M closed the game with a 12-5 run to win by a single point. Don’t be surprised if that has a carryover effect. Florida has had an extra day off (compared to MSU) to prepare here. Miss State struggles to defend the three-point line and you should look out for Florida’s Colin Castleton, who had 21 pts, 10 rebounds and EIGHT blocks in the last game. 10* Florida

8* Dusko Todorovic (3:10 ET): This is a battle of unbeaten fighters. Todorovic is 10-0 while Soriano is 7-0 and this is scheduled to be the opener of the main card on ABC. It’s a fight at 185 lbs (middleweight), scheduled for three rounds. Only one can stay unbeaten and I’m backing Todorovic. 

Todorovic has finished all but one opponent, that being Teddy Ash, whom he defeated on Dana White’s Contenders Series back in 2019. It was a pretty ugly decision victory, but that was followed up by an impressive second round knockout TKO of Dequan Townsend. All nine victories by stoppage have come within two rounds, six of them coming in round one. But don’t be surprised if it's Todorovic’s patience that gets his hand raised here. His opponent can be tired out and frustrated when he doesn’t score the early knockout.

Punahele Soriano is 7-0 with six first round finishes, but this may be too big of a step up at this point in his career. In his decision win over Jaime Pickett on DWCS, the only time he’s ever gone past the first round, he was clearly gassed by Round 2, but was able to hold on. But here it’s Todorovic who I expect to take the late rounds and thus remain undefeated. 8* Dusko Todorovic.

10* Over Hawks/Jazz (9:05 ET): After having their previous game postponed, Atlanta finally takes the court again Friday night as they’ll travel to face Utah. Last we saw the Hawks was Monday when they snapped a four-game losing streak by defeating the Sixers 112-94. Early on, the Hawks were REALLY flying high as they got off to a 4-1 SU/ATS start to the season. But then they crashed back down with the aforementioned four-game slide - two of the losses vs. Charlotte - and all as favorites. They should be more comfortable in the underdog role tonight as they are 3-0 ATS this season when getting points.

Utah dominated Cleveland its last time out, winning by 30 (117-87) on the road. It was the second straight game where the Jazz held their opponent under 90 points and won. They beat Detroit 96-86 on Sunday. Such defensive efforts shouldn’t have been that surprising as the Pistons and Cavs are two of the worst offensive teams this league has to offer. Before the season, the Pistons were thought to be the worst offensive team in the league. It turns out that’s Cleveland, who is currently last in offensive efficiency by a mile.

So it should be a much tougher chore at the defensive end tonight for Utah. The Hawks have averaged 121.2 points in five road games so far. While that number is skewed by a 141-point game vs. Brooklyn, look for the Hawks to hang a pretty big number here. They’ve gone Under in six straight, but many of those O/U lines were much larger than this one. They are 15-3 Over vs. Northwest Division teams. Utah also had its last game cancelled, so both teams come in fresh and ready to run. This should turn into a bit of a shootout w/ the Over being 35-17 the L52 times Atlanta has been an underdog. 10* Over Hawks/Jazz

8* Under Mavs/Bucks (7:35 ET): These teams have “taken turns” leading the league in offensive efficiency the past two seasons (Bucks in 2018-19, Mavs in 2019-20) with the Bucks back on top so far this season. But I’m anticipating this Friday night ESPN matchup to be a bit more low-scoring than you might think. I just won with the Under on Milwaukee’s last game, a 110-101 win over the Pistons. They’ve now gone Under in three straight, allowing an average of just 96.7 PPG during that time. Dallas is tied with the Lakers for #1 in defensive efficiency while the Bucks aren’t far behind at #4 in that department.

The Mavs come into tonight on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, which has seen them defeat Houston, Denver, Orlando and Charlotte. In each of the last two games, they’ve held the opposition below 100 points and both those games stayed Under. The Under is 7-3 in all Mavs’ games this season, which have averaged “only” 213.8 PPG or well below the O/U for tonight’s matchup. On Wednesday, they held Charlotte to only 93 points on 38% shooting, including 10 of 38 from three-point range.

Milwaukee once again looks like the best team in the league as they have the best point differential and net efficiency rating. Winners of six of their last seven, the Bucks are right near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, a place we all thought they’d be. They get a break here in that Dallas is a bit short-handed right now. Having held their previous five opponents to 42.8% shooting, it’s not as if the Bucks really need much of a break. Dallas is 5-2 Under its last seven tries as an underdog and I happen to think this O/U has been set too high. 8* Under Mavs/Bucks

6* Toronto (7:05 ET): Toronto and Ottawa have been division rivals ever since the NHL’s previous realignment, which placed both in the Atlantic. For this atypical 2020-21 season, they are now part of the new “North Division,” which is comprised of all the league’s Canadian franchises. It’s a necessity because of COVID-19 restricting travel. The Leafs should be quite happy about this development as they’ll get to face the Senators NINE times this season. (All regular season games are vs. division foes this year). 

For the first meeting, I like the Leafs to roll. They’ve already got a game under their belt, which they won 5-4 against Montreal on Wednesday. The win did require OT as the Leafs battled back from a two-goal deficit. They never led in regulation, but did end up outshooting the Habs 34-32. I’ve seen plenty of Stanley Cup buzz surrounding this team and rightly so as they are an elite offensive club, led by Hart Trophy candidate Auston Matthews. The new division alignment really favors the Leafs, who no longer have to contend with Tampa Bay and Boston. (A side note: this is as good a year as any for the 28-year drought of no Stanley Cup in Canada to end. One of them is guaranteed to be in the final four).

Ottawa comes into the year on the opposite end of the spectrum as they finished with the second fewest points in the league last season. They have yet to play a game. Opening with two against Toronto is not ideal. The Senators are being pegged for last in the North this season (Toronto is the consensus #1) and initially it looked like we were getting a real bargain with this line. It’s since been steamed up quite a bit, but that won’t change the fact this should be an easy two points for the Leafs. 6* Toronto

10* UAB (5:00 ET): UAB looks to be severely underpriced here. The Blazers have lost only one time (9-1 SU) and that was to Chattanooga (who’s now 11-3 SU) by three points. They were 10.5-point favorites in that lone defeat, which they’ve subsequently bounced back from by beating Southern Miss twice last weekend. But, as double digit favorites, the Blazers did not cover either game vs. Southern Miss. While this is only the second “true” road game of the season, they beat a decent E Tenn State team in the first and that was on the only game (besides today) this season that they DIDN’T go off as a DD favorite. We look to be getting a real discount here. 

Charlotte is 5-5 SU and coming off a terrible loss to a non-DI opponent, Belmont Abbey. That’s the only game the 49ers have played in the L2 weeks. The team had previously won four of five and covered two straight at home vs. Western Kentucky. They did have a couple impressive early season wins, beating South Carolina State by 38 and upsetting Davidson on the road as a 10.5-point dog. But their other three wins have all been by four points or less and they’re a bit lucky to even be .500 at this point. 

Defensively, UAB has been excellent, giving up just 57.0 PPG. That ranks 3rd in the country among teams that have played at least 10 games with the only two allowing fewer being Houston and Tennessee, a pair of Top 10 teams in the country. Charlotte has been through a lot recently with their last two games both going into OT and a COVID 19 cancellation vs. Marshall. Not only did they just shoot only 36.8% against a non-DI team, but they’ve allowed three of the last five opponents to shoot 50% or better. UAB has double revenge and is 5-1 ATS playing with 5 or 6 days rest. 10* UAB

8* Golden State (10:05 ET): Denver has struggled out of the gate and I can’t say I’m all that surprised. Coming off B2B seasons where they seemingly “overachieved,” regression was eventually going to take hold. In 2018-19, the Nuggets really benefited from a 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. In 2019-20, they weren’t as fortunate in close games, but did manage to still finish 3rd in the West despite having the 6th best point differential in the Conference. They have begun the current season 5-6 SU (3-8 ATS) and are coming off a six-point loss in Brooklyn the other night. 

Conversely, everyone expected Golden State to improve this year after shockingly falling to the depths of the league in 2019-20. Injuries were the main culprit for LY’s decline. I don’t think we’ll ever get to the point where it’s the “Warriors of old,” but there’s no reason why the Dubs can’t nap a top eight spot in the West this season. It’s a little surprising that they’ve only been favored three times so far, the most recent being Tuesday’s 104-95 LOSS to Indiana. But despite that, they still come into tonight sporting a 6-5 SU overall record.

The Nuggets are probably due for a lower-scoring game tonight after shooting better than 50% from the field in three consecutive contests. Plus, they just allowed the Nets to shoot over 60% on Tuesday. But Golden State should see its own scoring increase here following B2B subpar shooting efforts against Toronto & Indiana. Rather quietly, the Dubs are playing great defense of late as they’ve held their L5 opponents to 105.6 PPG on 42.9% shooting. I like them as underdogs tonight as they’ve won outright four of their last five times in that role. Take the points. 8* Golden State

10* Indiana (7:00 ET): The Hoosiers have lost seven straight times to Purdue, a streak that goes back to the 2016-17 season. But this year, IU is clearly the better team and I think they’ll show that Thursday night at Assembly Hall. I was on the Hoosiers Sunday evening when they went to Nebraska and won 84-76 as a six-point favorite. While that ended up being a close game for much of the second half, be aware that IU led by double digits at halftime and was in control most of the way. They’ve now won three of four, the lone loss coming in double overtime at Wisconsin last week. I’m laying the points here.

Purdue is off an upset as they went to East Lansing last Friday and beat Michigan State 55-54 as a six-point dog. We know Sparty is overrated this year, but don’t tell that to the contingent in West Lafayette as they were just happy to win a game after dropping three of their previous four. The Boilermakers have also really been struggling at the betting window where they are just 2-7-1 L10 games. I should mention tonight will be their FOURTH consecutive road game, a tall order no matter the opponent, but when faced with a team that has an argument to be in the Top 25 the task is obviously even more difficult. 

Purdue has played a total of five “true” road games before this. They have been held under 60 points in four of them. That seems troubling when facing a team that is averaging 78.6 PPG at home, not to mention just dropped 84 on the road. The Hoosiers are also 14th in the country in defensive efficiency. They are obviously well aware of the losing streak to Purdue and thus should come in supremely motivated here. Tip your cap to Purdue for the win at East Lansing, but they trailed by 15 at halftime and won on a last second shot. 10* Indiana

8* Under California/Colorado (2:00 ET): Cal has gone Over in seven straight games, but this afternoon they are running into an opponent that I feel is among the most underrated teams in the country, that being Colorado. The Buffs scored for us on Monday, beating Utah 65-58 as a 2.5-pt favorite, though they did have to rally back from a 10-point halftime deficit to do so. This is a team that plays excellent defense, especially at home where they are allowing just 55.3 points per game thus far. You’ll want to be on the Under here. 

California won its first Pac 12 game of the season Saturday by defeating struggling Washington 84-78. That was the Bears’ highest scoring effort since an 87-56 blowout of CS Northridge back on 12/19. Between those two 80+ point games, Cal was held to 70 or less four straight times. I should also bring up the fact that playing on the road should lead to an obvious decrease in offensive production. The Bears have played five “true” road games thus far and the most they’ve scored in any of them was 69. Four times they were held to 64 or less. 

Colorado is 18th in the country in defensive efficiency, so they’ve certainly “got the goods” to slow down Cal today. I really can’t believe this team isn’t ranked as my power ratings comfortably have them in the Top 20. It appears as if they are getting Cal at the perfect time as two of the Bears’ key players - Matt Bradley and Kuany Kuany - have been battling injuries and both missed the last game. Bradley is the team’s leading scorer, so if he misses a third straight game, it would be a huge loss. This game was supposed to be played last night, but got bumped back due to COVID protocols. The early afternoon start time may lead to a “sleepy start” for both teams. 8* Under California/Colorado

10* New Orleans (10:05 ET): The Pelicans haven’t played since Friday and will be eager to end a three-game slide here. They were favored in all three losses - to Indiana, OKC and Charlotte - all of which were at home. Then came a COVID-19 postponement as they were supposed to face Dallas Monday, but the Mavs didn’t have enough available players. With extended rest, I like the Pelicans getting points tonight as they are back on ESPN to face the inconsistent Clippers. Take the points.

The Clips let me down Sunday as they were not able to defeat the Bulls by the margin the oddsmakers were calling for. They won 130-127 as double digit favorites, a result they’ll take considering it came on the heels of a meltdown against the Warriors two days prior. But letting the Bulls shoot over 60% for the game was a major “red flag” to me. They trailed by seven at halftime, but were rather fortunate to go 20 of 38 from three-point range and thus rallied to win. I don’t think they can count on that kind of shooting again here as the Pelicans are holding teams to an average of just 100.2 PPG on the road thus far. 

I just think this is too many points for the Clippers to be laying to a desperate team. While they are 1-4 ATS as favorites this year, the Pelicans have not gotten this many points in any game so far. I’ve got this spread at 4.5 as New Orleans has outscored its opponents this season. They should be fresh and with this being the start of a six-game road trip, highly motivated. 10* New Orleans

10* Over Texas A&M/Mississippi State (9:00 ET): Texas A&M really struggles offensively and as a result their last seven games have ALL stayed Under the total. To end a streak such as that, sometimes all it takes is the “right opponent.” In this instance, that’s what we’ve got with Mississippi State, a team that has put up 80+ points in six of its last eight games. The Bulldogs have scored no less than 73 in any of those eight games, so I see them “helping” A&M to its first Over in more than a month. 

As you might have guessed, Over has been the way to go with Miss State as that’s how six of their last nine games have ended up and for some it might be seven of nine. (The 78-63 win over Missouri last week fell very close to the number). On Saturday, the Bulldogs were involved in quite the high-scoring affair as they beat Vanderbilt 84-81. They shot over 60% (31 of 51) in that win and completely overwhelmed the Commodores in the paint, outscoring them there 42-18. What’s truly remarkable about the Bulldogs putting up 84 points in that game is the fact they made only four three-pointers. They attempted only seven! 

But the negative is that they did allow Vandy to make 15 shots from behind the arc. As good as they’ve been offensively, MSU has allowed 73+ points in three of its last four contests. Saturday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 80! So A&M has a shot to get its offense going here. Their three point shooting, below 30% for the season, is certainly due to get better. Of course that won’t matter if the Aggies play defense like they did vs. Tennessee, who they allowed to shoot 58.7% from the floor. This number is way too low for a game involving a team like Miss St. 10* Over Texas A&M/Miss State

8* Under Bucks/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just met twice last week (both games in Milwaukee) and as you might have guessed, the Bucks won both times. The scores were remarkably similar, 125-115 and 130-115, and that had the Over also going 2 for 2. Now they face off in the Motor City where the Pistons will hope for a better result. It’s highly unlikely that the underdog can prevail here, but their best chance is to keep things a lot more low-scoring. I do think that’s going to happen, for a variety of reasons.

Since sweeping the Pistons last week, the Bucks have gone on to win two of their last three games. After losing to Utah (gave up 131 points!), they’ve bounced back to defeat both Cleveland (allowed just 90 points) and Orlando (allowed just 99 points). The Under hit in both wins and again, that’s what I see happening in this one as they are taking on another opponent that is apt to struggle at the offensive end. The Pistons are 26th in the league in offensive efficiency and prior to the season were projected to be LAST in that department.

Now keeping the Bucks’ offense (#1 in efficiency) is going to be the key to this play. The Bucks are averaging 121.9 PPG so far, but that’s going to be difficult to maintain. Tonight marks the first time they’ve had to play consecutive road games since the start of the New Year. Hopefully, that can have a small (negative) impact on their production. But the bottom line here is that in it’s last two games, Detroit has scored just 86 and 93 points in regulation. With injuries at the PG position, they shot just 33% vs. Utah on Sunday. The Under is 4-1 in the Pistons’ last five home games. 8* Under Bucks/Pistons

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): I like the Mavericks quite a bit and fully anticipate they’ll finish in the top four of the Western Conference by season’s end. But Charlotte has very much been an above-average team so far (surprising!) and because of that I’m taking the points Wednesday night. While the Mavs come in as winners of three in a row - SU and ATS - the Hornets have won and covered four straight, three of those coming in the underdog role. I had them last Friday in an upset of New Orleans on ESPN. Following that, they blew out the Knicks 109-88 as five-point home favorites. 

This is already the second (and final) meeting of the season between these teams. Back on December 30th, the Hornets went into Dallas and pulled out a stunning 118-99 upset as eight-point underdogs. That was a cold-shooting night for the Mavs as they made only 39.1% of their FG attempts and were 12 of 42 from three-point range. If you’re looking for a reason why the Hornets have gotten hot, then look no further than the defensive end. Since a season opening loss in Cleveland, only Philadelphia has topped 110 points against them. 

Dallas had a game postponed due to COVID on Monday, so that very well might “throw them off.” The last time they played was Saturday (a 112-98 win over Orlando), so don’t be surprised if they come out rusty. A slow start could very well cost them and this looks like a real bargain on the Hornets considering they were +8 when they visited Dallas. Now they are they home team and the Mavs are 0-5 ATS L5 as road favorites. 8* Charlotte

8* St. Bonaventure (2:00 ET): We have what appears to be a massive mismatch from the A-10 this afternoon with the Bonnies playing at the long-time dreg of this league, Fordham. The road team comes in at 4-1 SU with the lone loss coming by six at Rhode Island. Since then, they’ve managed to beat a good (but somewhat overrated) Richmond team and then blew out St. Joe’s 83-57 last week. I don’t see any reason why the Bonnies shouldn’t win in blowout fashion again today as they face an opponent that has yet to score more than 55 points in a game this season. 

Fordham last’s game was played on Saturday and they did hang in there against Duquesne, “only” losing by three points (48-45!) as 13.5-point road underdogs. That came on the heels of the Rams’ only win of the season, a shocking 55-54 upset of Dayton here at home where they were 12-point underdogs. Prior to that, they lost by 24 and 37 to George Washington and LaSalle. Because of COVID-19, the Rams’ season didn’t even get underway until December 30th. It’s not like there was much to look forward to as they were predicted to finish LAST in the conference in the preseason poll. 

With Fordham’s offensive numbers being so dreadful, I just don’t see how they keep pace in this one. Yes, they’ve been able to rely on their defense to cover the L2 games and pull the one outright upset. But St. Bonaventure comes in averaging a solid 73.4 PPG. Furthermore, they defend the three-point line quite well as is evident by the fact their opponents are shooting just 25.7% from there for the season. Fordham is 341st in offensive efficiency this season (out of 357 teams). The Bonnies have covered six straight times against them and today should make it seven. 8* St. Bonaventure

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): Indiana is off a tough loss last night in Sacramento (127-122 as 3.5-pt favorites), which I feel makes them particularly vulnerable in the second night of B2B road games. Golden State, who is building “momentum” in the wake of victories against the Clippers and Raptors, should take full advantage of the situation. Since opening 0-2, the Warriors have won six of eight and what’s particularly jarring is the fact they’ve gone off as the favorite in just two of the victories. But this seems like an obvious time to lay a short number.

Golden State’s surge has actually come on the strength of their work on the defensive end as they’ve held four straight opponents to 108 points or less. During their incredible run of five straight Finals appearances, the Dubs routinely ranked among the league leaders in defensive efficiency. That’s something I think has been forgotten. Steph Curry actually had one of the worst shooting nights of his career vs. Toronto (2 of 16!), so it was a real “feather in the cap” that the team still won that game. Curry should obviously be expected to shoot the ball much better tonight. 

Indiana had been playing solid defense as well, but has now given up 125+ points in B2B games, both of which they lost as favorites. Making matters worse for tonight is the fact the team is already playing short-handed (no Warren, Lamb or McConnell) and the top three scorers (Sabonis, Brogdon, Oladipo) all played 37+ minutes last night. This simply looks to be a terrible spot for the Pacers. Depth is already a huge edge for Golden State as their reserves average 41.8 PPG (4th most in the league) while Indiana’s average only 30.3 (27th). That edge should be further exacerbated tonight. 10* Golden State

10* Marquette (9:00 ET): This Tuesday night Big East battle is critical for both teams, but especially Marquette, who has failed to cover in five straight games. The lone SU win during that stretch was by four against Georgetown (on Jan 2), but that was quickly followed with an 11-point home loss to UConn. Friday’s game at Villanova had to be postponed and there’s a good chance (given ‘Nova is the #3 ranked team in the country) that would have been yet another defeat. I view the postponement as a huge break for the Golden Eagles as they come into tonight well rested (full week off) while the opponent (Providence) is playing its second road game in three days. 

Let’s also not forget that Marquette holds victories over both Wisconsin and Creighton. Those are both top 10 teams! So the fact they’ve been struggling so much in conference play confounds me a bit. Against UConn, they were up 18 (in the second half!) but were on the wrong end of a 42-13 run down the stretch (what?!) and scored just two points over the final 4:44. Still, I don’t think there’s any reason to panic. At home this year, the Golden Eagles are allowing a FG% of 37.9! Their own shooting, which has been poor the L2 games, should improve here against a team that’s not very good defensively. 

Providence is coming off B2B losses by a combined three points. They lost by two at home to Creighton on Jan 2, then by one at Xavier on Sunday. The loss to Xavier was particularly brutal as the Friars shot better than 51% for the game and led by seven with just over a minute to go. They allowed the game’s final eight points and the winning basket, a three-pointer, came with just 0.1 seconds left on the clock. I find it hard to believe Providence is going to be able to recover from a defeat such as that with such a short turnaround between games. They are 1-6 ATS playing with one or less days rest the L3 seasons, including 0-2 this season. Not only does the schedule work in Marquette’s favor here, they’ve got the added motivation of double revenge for a pair of losses to the Friars last season. 10* Marquette

8* Over Manchester United/Burnley (3:15 ET): Amidst much hype, Manchester United has surged to the top of the Premier League table. They are currently level at 33 points with Liverpool and enter Tuesday knowing that all it will take is a point (draw) to pull ahead of the reigning EPL champs (at least temporarily) before next week’s huge showdown in Anfield. Of course, Man U will want the full three (points) here at Burnley as they look to continue their spectacular form that has seen them win 8 of their last 10 Premier League matches. One would have to go all the way back to December of 2012 to find the last time Man U has been atop the table past matchweek 17. 

Burnley will be trying to play spoiler here. They too are in decent form, having won three of four in Premier League play. But those three wins have come against the Wolves, Crystal Palace and Sheffield United, all bottom of the table teams. The big issue this season for Burnley - and why they are still in 16th position - is that they have tallied only nine goals in 15 matches. That’s the second fewest in the EPL, only one ahead of relegation-bound Sheffield United. 

Though they were on the pitch Saturday in FA Cup action, Burnley is relatively fresh here as their last scheduled EPL encounter (Jan 3 vs. Fulham) was postponed (COVID). I do think we’re going to see them get on the scoresheet Tuesday. It’s almost been comical how low-scoring their matches have been thus far with just 29 total goals scored. The next fewest is Fulham with 36. Yes, some of it is due to Burnley having only played 15 matches, but they are long overdue for a “high-scoring affair''. United has scored 2+ goals in six of their last eight EPL matches, so they are the perfect “dance partner.” This one goes Over. 8* Over Manchester United/Burnley

8* Akron (3:00 ET): You may not know this, but Northern Illinois is atrocious. At 1-9 SU, the Huskies can be found among the bottom 25 teams in the country in my personal power ratings. They are the lowest rated MAC team. The one win came against a Chicago State team that could be the worst in the entire country and actually just suspended its season. But coming off a surprise loss at Eastern Michigan on Saturday, don’t look for favored Akron to take the Huskies lightly. Rather, they can sense the “blood in the water” and should win here in blowout fashion. 

The Zips were hoping for a convincing win Saturday in Ypsilanti, but were instead upset by Eastern Michigan as 5.5-point chalk. They scored a season-low 59 points as they shot just 25% from 3-point range. Turning it over 17 times didn’t help matters either. I think they re-discover the shooting touch Tuesday as NIU just allowed its previous opponent (Miami OH) to shoot 53.2%. It was almost exactly one year ago that Akron came here to DeKalb and won 72-49 as 2.5-pt favorites. 

Northern Illinois has been dreadful at the offensive end, averaging only 58.8 PPG. They’ve topped 64 only twice, against Ball State on 12/8 and Ohio on 1/5 . That Ohio game is the only one the Huskies have covered as it was a 3-point loss. Saturday’s 70-58 loss to Miami was already the sixth double digit loss (in 10 games) for the Huskies. They are now 5-14 ATS the L3 seasons coming off a game where they scored 60 points or less.The favorite won’t mess around in this afternoon game. 8* Akron

10* Under Pacers/Kings (10:05 ET): Indiana is off a home loss to Phoenix, 125-117, on Saturday night. It was just the third loss this season for the Pacers, who are in their usual position of “second tier” in the Eastern Conference. They do have one of the better point differentials in the East and also sport a better net efficiency rating than 7-1 Philadelphia. Coming off a loss, the Pacers have to be “licking their chops” as they start a five-game West Coast swing in Sacramento against a Kings team that’s lost five of six.

Sacramento’s most recent loss was an ugly one as they fell 125-99 at home to Portland. That makes it five ATS losses in a row and B2B 20+ point defeats at home. They also lost here to Toronto on Friday, giving up 144 points in the process. This is a very bad defensive team as it has allowed 124+ points in four straight games while dropping to dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. 

Despite that, I expect tonight’s game to stay Under the total. The Kings’ defensive numbers almost HAVE to improve and the Pacers will also be looking to improve on that end after giving up 125 to Phoenix. This will be the highest O/U to date for any Indiana game. They are 2-0 Under this season after allowing 115+ points last game. Meanwhile, the Under is 13-6 for the Kings following a double digit defeat at home. That trend held in the Portland game. This number simply opened way too high. 10* Under Pacers/Kings

10* Under Ohio State/Alabama (8:00 ET): Both Ohio State and Alabama won their semifinal games in impressive fashion. Of course that was expected from the #1 ranked Crimson Tide, who were 19.5-point favorites, a historic spread for a game of that magnitude. That they “only” won 31-14 obviously did not appease all, thanks to a backdoor Notre Dame touchdown. Conversely, Ohio State’s 49-28 schellacking of Clemson came as a surprise, even to someone like me who played the Buckeyes as a 7.5-point underdog. That this spread - vs. a team superior to Clemson - is now pretty similar isn’t that surprising as obviously an adjustment had to be made based on OSU’s incredible semi final effort. 

By now, you certainly have heard that this is the highest O/U line for any National Championship Game in the BCS or College Football Playoff era. Again, that had to be expected given what we saw in the semis, particularly the Ohio State game. I, for one, was quite happy to hear the news as “Under” was my immediate reaction when seeing this number. You have to remember that the Clemson defense Ohio State torched on New Year’s Night was missing its top DB for the 1st half and its best player for the majority of the game, both due to targeting. 

Ohio State games, for the most part, have been really high scoring this year. Only the Big 10 Championship (vs. Northwestern) saw fewer than 63 total points scored. But none have seen more than 77 scored. I would be quite surprised if the Buckeyes hit their season average of 43.4 PPG here vs. Alabama. In the same vein, I don’t think the Crimson Tide will hit their season average of 48.2 PPG either. Only two Bama games all season - Ole Miss and the SEC Championship vs. Florida - would have gone Over this total. Those two opponents were two of the most “all offense, no defense” teams in the Power 5 this season, certainly from the SEC. This should close as the highest O/U line for either team all season. 10* Under Ohio State/Alabama

8* Colorado (6:00 ET): Colorado may or may not enter the rankings when the new Top 25 poll is released later today. Regardless they SHOULD be included as my power rankings like this team quite a bit, calling them the Pac 12’s best. They just beat Oregon 79-72 on Thursday and that’s significant because the opponent they face tonight (Utah) just lost to the Ducks on Saturday (here in Salt Lake City) by a score of 79-73. Colorado also holds a recent victory over USC, who destroyed the Utes 64-46 three days later. Oddsmakers opened this line way too low and I’m jumping on it. 

Troubling for Utah is the fact they shot 55.8% against Oregon and still lost. It’s a virtual certainty that the Utes will not shoot that well again tonight. Against USC, they made only 27.9% of their field goal attempts. While it may not get that dire again this evening, Colorado is top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency and allows only 62.6 PPG. The fact Utah blew a 10-point halftime lead against Oregon may carry over here. 

While Utah has the home court edge tonight, that obviously doesn’t mean a ton in 2021. Colorado has the edge in rest as they haven’t played since Thursday while Utah’s game with Oregon was on Saturday. This game was originally going to be played on March 6th, but got bumped up because Colorado’s game with Oregon State (scheduled for Saturday) was postponed. Utah HC Larry Krystowiak seems to be tinkering with his lineup while Colorado will have the best player on the floor in McKinley Wright IV. Lay the short number. 8* Colorado

10* Indiana (6:00 ET): Similar to yesterday’s GOW winner on Texas Tech, I’ve got this line a lot higher than it actually is. With a 7-5 SU record, Indiana obviously isn’t going to merit much conversation for the Top 25. But my power ratings DO consider them a Top 25 team. Consider that four of their five losses this year have been to Top 25 teams with the most recent (Thursday) coming in double overtime at #8 Wisconsin. That was the third loss to a team rated in my own Top 10, two of them in OT. The Big 10 gauntlet is tough for everybody, but Nebraska is probably the worst team in the conference. So look for the Hoosiers to win big Sunday. 

Nebraska has lost four in a row coming into this game and they haven’t been all that competitive. While they covered their last game, as a nine-point underdog here at home vs. Michigan State, that was actually the Cornhuskers’ first ATS victory since November 28th (and just the second of the season). They lost by seven to Sparty, but before that their previous five losses had all been by double digits. They lost here in Lincoln as a five-point favorite to Nevada. Their only three wins this year have been vs. McNeese State, North Dakota State and Doane College.

IU won all three meetings w/ Nebraska last season, all of the wins coming by six or more points. Right before the season shut down, they ended the Cornhuskers’ season with a 25-point beatdown in the Big 10 Tournament. Nebraska is being outscored by 17 PPG so far in Big 10 play and isn’t likely to match the kind of shooting we saw from them vs. Michigan State. Defensively, Indiana is allowing just 40.7% shooting for the year. I think this is where they break out offensively, even without Armaan Franklin. 10* Indiana

10* Under Bears/Saints (4:40 ET): For four consecutive weeks, Chicago put up 30+ points (something no Bears team had done since the 1960’s) with Mitch Trubisky at the helm. But then came last week’s disappointing effort vs. the Packers where they were held to just 16. Thanks to Arizona also losing, the Bears were able to “back in” to the playoffs as the 7-seed in the NFC, but I don’t think I’m exaggerating here when I call this the weakest team in the field (yes, even weaker than Washington). They face a VERY tall order in the Wild Card Round, having to travel to the Mercedes Benz Superdome to face the Saints. 

When looking at that run of 30+ point games, it’s very important to consider just WHO the Bears faced: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville. None of those are playoff teams and the defenses were among the worst in the league. Facing a good defense for the 1st time in a month, the Bears got held to not just 16 points, but only 4.8 yards per play. The Saints defense that Trubisky and company will face this week is one of the league’s best as it ranks top five in both scoring and yards allowed. Chicago is 1-6 SU vs. winning teams this season, averaging just 16 PPG. So last week, sadly, was nothing new.

The Saints offense is expected to get both RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas back, which sounds exciting. But the Bears’ run defense is tops in the league in terms of success rate and Kamara may not be operating at full strength after missing a week due to quarantine. While New Orleans is still thought of as this “offensive machine,” they operate at a very slow pace (29th in time between plays) and I think they know it’s not going to take many points to win here. Their L3 playoff games have all stayed Under. 10* Under Bears/Saints

10* LA Clippers (4:05 ET): I expect a VERY strong effort from the Clippers on Sunday afternoon. This is a team that just blew a 21-point second half lead Friday and lost to the rival Warriors. Following that defeat, Kawhi Leonard quipped “things have to change.” He was probably referring to the fact that since the start of last season, the Clippers have lost an NBA-high eight times when leading by 15+ points. This team should definitely be better than 6-4 coming into Sunday. It’s “wrong place, wrong time” for the Bulls here. 

Now we’ve got to be wary of the fact Chicago has covered seven of its last eight games including the last four. All of those covers came as underdogs and they’ve won four of the games outright. But Sunday afternoon in LA will mark the Bulls’ fourth road game in six days and you have to wonder how much they’ll have left in the tank. Honestly, I think the fact they have been covering so much sets us up with some nice value. Yes, the spread is double digits. But it’s not like the Clips aren’t capable of winning by that kind of margin.

They’ve won twice by at least 13 this season and there have been multiple other games where they built DD leads. The fact that they are routinely up so big should tell you something - this is still one of the better teams in the NBA. Again, they should be very motivated coming off the Golden State loss.The Bulls just lost by two and four points the last two games, making this an even harder than normal fourth road game in six days. The Bulls are 27th in defensive efficiency and I believe could get torched by a motivated favorite. 10* LA Clippers

10* Stuttgart (9:30 ET): These are two middle of the table teams. Whomever gets the three points will ensure they keep pace with the top half in the Bundesliga. I think that will be Stuttgart, who has the better YTD goal differential and a solid away form. They’ve won four of seven matches on the road this season, which is actually a better record than they sport at home. It feels like a solid buy low situation as Stuttgart has been higher in the table for much of this campaign in their first season back in the German top flight.

Augsburg has won two of three in the Bundesliga to climb to 10th place and safely away from relegation. They won 1-0 last Saturday against FC Koln, but it wasn’t a very impressive performance and hardly inspires confidence moving forward. Looking back through recent results, Augsburg has done quite well against bottom of the table teams and not so hot against everyone else. Since the start of October, they’ve won only three times and those were all against sides currently in the bottom four.

Stuttgart should feel no shame in losing 1-0 to RB Leipzig last week, but it was their second straight defeat by that score following a three-match unbeaten run at the start of December. During that three-match unbeaten run, they’d found the back of the net nine times including a very impressive 5-1 victory over Dortmund. As alluded to briefly at the outset, they have a +5 goal differential on the year (Augsburg is -3). They have scored 10 more goals than Augsburg this season, so I see an offensive breakout on Sunday. 10* Stuttgart

8* Lazio (9:00 ET): Parma is struggling as much as any side in Europe right now and that poor form makes them a very logical fade in this price range. Currently in the relegation zone, the Emilians have dropped four straight and are winless over their last seven fixtures. They’ve scored the fewest number of goals (13) in all of Serie A and with just four total SHOTS on goal in their L2 matches, they are straight up inept on the offensive side of things. The poor form led to a managerial change, but for all the reasons listed above, Roberto D’Aversa faces a real tall order in his second go-around with the club.

After qualifying for the knockout stage of the Champions League (1st time in two decades), Lazio had reason to celebrate. But they’ve been the definition of mediocre on the domestic front, both scoring and conceding 25 goals this Serie A campaign. I’m not totally shocked as regression was expected after the top four finish last season. Currently 8th, they cannot afford to lose any more ground to the top teams in the table. A midweek win over Fiorentina (2-1) was much needed and this certainly looks like another easy three points.

Lazio has had some issues beating bottom of the table teams before. Settling for draws against the likes of Genoa and Benevento cost them much needed points, so you can bet they can smell “blood in the water” here. They have owned Parma in the past, losing only once in their last 11 visits to Tardini and the last five fixtures have brought five wins, four via clean sheet. I see no reason to expect Parma to get on the scoresheet here as they’ve failed to notch a goal in five of their last seven. They are off B2B 3-0 losses and further complicating matters is the number of key absences their new manager has to deal with. Basically, all we need is Lazio to score. 8* Lazio

8* Washington (8:15 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Tampa Bay is a big road favorite here, which is actually NOT a great spot historically as the only three previous road teams to be favored by six or more all lost outright, including the now infamous 2010 Saints, who were facing a 7-9 division winner (Seattle) that no one thought “deserved” to make the playoffs. 

Washington is only 7-9 and we all (rightfully) mocked how bad the NFC East was this year. But the truth of the matter is that the Football Team is better than its record. They had a +6 point differential in the regular season, which is better than two other playoff teams - Chicago & Cleveland. Also, they were 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in starts made by Alex Smith, who hasn’t been an underdog of more than seven points since guiding the Chiefs to an upset win in New England back in Week 1 of the 2017 season. The last two 7-9 (SU) teams to make the playoffs both won in the Wild Card Round.

This is the Saturday night game and let’s not forget Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in primetime this season. They lost (outright) to the Bears, Saints (badly) and the Rams. The only primetime win was by two points against the Giants, Washington’s division rival. I believe the Football Team has the kind of defense (tremendous front four) that can give Tom Brady trouble. Plus, Brady’s best receiver (Mike Evans) may not even play (‘gametime call’). This Washington defense is #2 in the league in yards allowed and #3 in scoring. The Football Team’s last five losses have all been by seven points or less. 8* Washington

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): I’m “turning on” the Hornets here after they delivered me a 118-110 outright win last night in New Orleans. The change of course makes sense. Not only is this the second night of a back to back for Charlotte, but they are also facing a revenge-minded Atlanta team they just defeated Wednesday night. I’d say it seems pretty easy to envision the Hornets having a “letdown” game Saturday night, coming off B2B upsets. We’ve got to pay a premium here (Hawks were only -5.5 at home Weds night), but it’s well worth the investment, in my opinion. 

Following a strong 4-1 start to the year, the Hawks were looking like one of the most improved teams in the league. But three straight losses - all as favorites - have really quelled that discussion. It’s not just that the Hawks have lost three in a row, it’s who they’ve lost to: Cleveland, New York and Charlotte. If they envision themselves as one of the league’s most improved teams, then those are games they have to win. It is worth noting that they held DD leads in the second half against both the Knicks and Cavs. Those are games that Atlanta SHOULD have won. 

Against Charlotte on Wednesday, the Hawks took a lot of ill-advised shots early and found themselves in a 16-point hold at the end of the 1Q. They trailed by as many as 24 as Gordon Hayward scored a career-high 44 points. But they did battle back to make a game of it and took the lead in the 4Q before fading late. Charlotte was actually down by 18 last night before coming back to win. The fact they had to play a game in between the two vs. Atlanta, last night no less, is an obvious disadvantage. I’m expecting the Hawks to roll here and improve to 5-0 ATS on the road this season. 10* Atlanta

8* LA Rams (4:40 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. While the QB situation is in flux, I don’t think most are aware of just how good this Rams defense is or the fact the team’s YPP (yards per play) differential is among the very best in the league this season. I’m taking the points here. 

This Rams’ defense led the league in both scoring (18.5 PPG) and yards allowed (282.1 per game) this season. They were also #1 against the pass. Opposing offenses scored a TD on only 16% of their possessions during the regular season. While you may think Seattle QB Russell Wilson is set “to cook” here, you better think again as he went just 2 of 16 on passes of 30+ yards the final eight reg season games, including 1 of 6 vs. the Rams, who are the best in the league at limiting such completions (just 14.8%). Wilson has NOT thrown for more than 200 yards in any of the L3 games, a stretch which has seen the Seahawks get outgained, something that was the case over the course of the season as well! 

The more interesting battle here seems to be whomever the Rams QB is vs. the improved Seattle defense. Rams HC Sean McVay won’t announce whether its going to be Jared Goff or John Wolford until right before kickoff, but obviously he and the team knows. Seattle doesn’t, which is an obvious disadvantage. The Seahawks’ defense went from being the worst in the league over the first eight games to the best over the final eight games, which is quite the transformation. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle. Most Seahawks’ games end up being close, so I like the points with a Rams team that has covered four of its last five as a road dog of three points or less. 8* LA Rams

10* Texas Tech (4:00 ET): Texas Tech remains one of the more talented teams in the country, but they really need to start covering some games. A failure to cover the 16.5-point spot vs. Kansas State earlier this week made it seven consecutive ATS losses for the Red Raiders, who come in at #19 in the country for Saturday’s tilt with Iowa State. This is certainly a game that the contingent from Lubbock should win as ISU is just 2-6 SU and coming off games vs. Baylor and Texas. So I’ll lay the points in this Big 12 matchup. 

Not sure what Iowa State did to the schedule markers, but this has been an absolutely brutal stretch of games for the Cyclones. As I just mentioned, in the past week they’ve had to take on both Baylor and Texas, a pair of Top 4 teams. They lost by 11 to Baylor and by 6 to Texas, so the ‘Clones were competitive and in fact covered the spread in both games. But what will they have left as they prepare for a third straight game against a top five defense in the country? Texas Tech makes you work at the offensive end and I’m just not sure ISU is gonna have much left in the tank here. 

Last season, Texas Tech swept the season series from Iowa State, winning by 20 and 30 points. So this is an opponent they’ve dominated in the past. I think it’s critical to note that while Texas Tech “only” won by 11 its last time out and Iowa State “only” lost by six its last time out, the margins were bigger for a substantial portion of those games. Iowa State has beaten only two teams this year: Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Jackson State. Some of that is due to the brutal schedule, but they did lose here in Ames to South Dakota State and were blown out (by 28) at Iowa. Texas Tech slams the door here. 10* Texas Tech

10* Indianapolis (1:05 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Did you know the Colts were an underdog just ONE time during the regular season? That was when they were +1 in Cleveland of all places. They are the ONLY team in the league that wasn’t +3 or higher in any game in 2020. 

Buffalo comes into the playoffs red-hot, having won six straight (all by 10 pts or greater) and 9 of their last 10. Their only loss in those L10 games came on the now-famous “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. The Bills have covered the spread in each of their L8 games, which is the longest ATS win streak entering the postseason since the 2011 Saints. Only three teams in history have carried a longer ATS win streak into the postseason and all of them came prior to 1995, which is the last time the Bills franchise won a playoff game. While the Bills are deservedly big favorites to win here, there’s a lot of pressure on them in what is their first home playoff game since ‘96. 

I don’t think most people fully appreciate how good this Colts team is. They played just one bad game all season (vs. Tennessee) and that was when they had a number of key defensive players out. This defense is top 10 in the league in both scoring and yards, having spent a majority of the year at/near the top. QB Rivers is 6-2 ATS in his career as a playoff underdog, including 4-0 when getting seven or more points. I think this spread should be several points lower and the Colts are absolutely capable of winning outright. They’ve won six of eight and in one of those losses (Pittsburgh) they blew a DD lead. Buffalo’s top two receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are both dealing w/ injuries. 10* Indianapolis

6* Atalanta (9:00 AM ET): The Atalanta we got on Sunday is the Atalanta I hope we get here. La Dea ROLLED to a dominating 5-1 win over Sassuolo when we last took them and now - following another convincing win (3-0 over Parma) mid-week - they have moved up to a tie for 6th place, just two points back of where they need to be for Champions League qualifying. It’s getting crowded at the top of the Serie A table with seven sides seemingly poised to make a run for the top four. So as I said in the analysis last week, Atalanta needs to focus on consistency, something we’re seeing more and more of lately from one of Europe’s most exciting sides.

Benevento, like Sassuolo, is an overachieving opponent for La Dea. With three wins in the last four matches and just one defeat (to AC Milan) in the last five, Benevento is now in 10th place, safely free from the relegation zone where most expected this recently promoted side to end up. Last year’s Serie B champs are fresh off a 2-1 win against Cagliari mid-week. But something that becomes apparent when looking at recent results is Benevento has really been beating up on the lesser sides in the table. Cagliari, Udinese and Genoa are the three clubs they’ve beaten recently, all of which are no higher than 13th in the table.

Even before winning their previous two fixtures by a combined score of 8-1, there were signs of the Atalanta “of old.” They’d raced out to a 2-0 first half lead against Bologna three weeks ago. While they blew that lead and had to settle for a draw, the fact remains La Dea is unbeaten (5 wins, 3 draws) in its last eight matches (across all competitions) and seems refreshed since Champions League play paused. Benevento still has a -7 YTD goal differential and I’d be shocked if they manage to keep up with their high-scoring opponents, who are #2 in goals scored in all of Serie A. Benevento is only 15th having scored roughly half as many times this campaign. 6* Atalanta

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The Hornets have been dreadful when favored thus far (0-3 STRAIGHT UP!), but they’ve been somewhat reliable when getting points, going 3-2 ATS and producing all of their SU wins in that role. The most recent win came Wednesday night when they went to Atlanta and beat a much improved Hawks team 102-94. They led by double digits almost the entire way (save for a big 4Q run by the Hawks) and were led by Gordon Hayward’s career-high 44 points. 

Meanwhile, New Orleans has also struggled in the role of favorite. They’ve lost two straight as chalk, falling here at home to Indiana and Oklahoma City. The latter saw them laying eight points to a Thunder team that simply is not very good. The Pelicans gave up 27 fast break points in the game, allowed OKC to make 19 three-pointers and trailed by as many as 14 (10 entering the 4Q). Because of Zion Williamson, there’s a lot of “hype” surrounding this team, but I don’t really think they’re “their yet.” 

It’s the Pelicans that find themselves favored (again) tonight, so I’m going to fade as I expect Charlotte to “stick around.” Something that surprises me is that the Pelicans are just 25th in offensive efficiency. This very well could turn out to be a low-scoring game, so that’s another reason to want to take the points. Then again, the Pelicans have allowed 111+ points in five of their previous seven contests. Charlotte has allowed that many just twice since the season opener. Going back to before the shutdown, the Hornets are 10-2-1 their L13 games as an underdog. 10* Charlotte

10* Northern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Seeing Cleveland State atop the Horizon League with a 6-0 record is not something I expected to see, especially after the Vikings were throttled 101-46 by Ohio U one month ago. In that game, CSU found itself on the wrong end of a record-setting 40-0 run (spanning both halves). That’s right; they gave up 40 consecutive points to the opponent without scoring one themselves! Since that time, the Vikings are 7-0 ATS and have won six in a row in league play, sweeping IPFW, Youngstown State and IUPUI. It’s a run that’s bound to come to an end and in the words of Neil Young, “tonight’s the night!” 

Northern Kentucky is off its own sweep of IPFW last week, winning those two home games by seven and two points. The Norse were expected to be one of the Horizon’s top teams this season (#3 in preseason poll) and have started conference play 3-1 SU. While they’ve yet to win a “true” road game in 2020-21, they’ve had great success here at CSU in the past, going 4-1 SU/ATS L5 visits. I was impressed that they were able to win their last game despite only SEVEN free throw attempts (made them all). One area where I expect NKU to improve tonight is their 3-point shooting as they are hitting just 28.4% from behind the arc thus far. 

Pegged for seventh in the preseason Horizon League poll, it is definitely a surprise to see Cleveland State in 1st place sporting a 6-0 SU/ATS record. The Vikings started the season outside the top 300 in my power ratings. Give them some credit, but two of the three teams they’ve swept are expected to be the bottom two in the league. Also, only one of the six victories has been by more than 10 points. The Vikings have been terrible for years, averaging just 11 wins per season since 2017-18! Trust me when I say that the better team is getting points here. 10* Northern Kentucky

8* Bayern Munich (2:30 ET): Getting the consensus best team in Europe at this price isn’t a luxury afforded very often. So I’ll gladly grab Bayern Munich here as they look to remain atop the Bundesliga table with a visit to Borussia Park. That the visitors are in their current position is no shock at all. They have the best goal differential in the league (+23) and have been beaten only one time. That they have done so despite being down in eight consecutive matches is pretty remarkable. A shocking 0-2 halftime deficit against Mainz last week quickly turning into a 5-2 win was basically “business usual.’” 

Last month, Borussia Monchengladbach advanced to the knockout stage of the Champions League for the first time in their history. They may want to relish it, because it’s looking like they may not have a chance to get back there next season. Currently sitting 7th in the Bundesliga table, M’gladbach trails 4th place Dortmund by four points, so not even a shocking win here would propel them into the top four. A less than stellar 1-0 victory over bottom feeder Arminia Bielefeld last week tells me they simply don’t have the firepower necessary to compete here. 

Bayern Munich, as you’d expect, has way more goals scored than any other Bundesliga side. They’ve found the back of the net 44 times, which is 15 more than anybody else. That gap is the same as the gap between the 2nd highest scoring team (Leverkusen) and the 4th LOWEST scoring side. Robert Lewandowski’s 19 goals (in just 13 matches!) are more than six clubs have all year! Gladbach has more draws (6) than wins (5) thus far. Unlike last week, we are going to get a fully focused Bayern Munich and that spells D-O-O-M for the opposition. 8* Bayern Munich

10* Dallas (10:05 ET): These two teams finished 7th (Dallas) and 3rd (Denver) respectively in the Western Conference standings a season ago. But that’s quite misleading. It was the Mavericks who had a far better YTD point differential (+4.9 per game vs. +2.1 for Denver) and I was REALLY hoping that they’d be matched up in the 1st round of the playoffs, so I could fire away on Dallas. That didn’t happen though. What did happen is that Denver overcame TWO 3-1 series deficits to get to the Western Conference Finals while the Mavs went home after the 1st round.

For Denver to finish above Dallas last year, there had to be some “luck” involved and sure enough they had nine wins by three points or less and a Western Conference-high five wins in OT. That’s BEFORE the playoffs, mind you. Dallas was a league-worst 2-11 SU in games decided by three points or less, undercutting the fact they had the third most double digit wins in the conference. I’m not sugarcoating it one bit when I say the Mavs were a better team than the Nuggets last season. I believe they are going to be better this season. Now is their time to prove it. 

The Mavs are off a 113-100 win in Houston, which was much needed as they were off a loss in Chicago (no Doncic). Doncic returned with a triple double vs. the Rockets. Though just 3-4 SU right now, the Mavs have destroyed the Clippers (51-point win) and also beat Miami by 10. Denver was 1-4 before a home and home sweep against lowly Minnesota. They’ve already lost a couple of close games, so the expected regression in that area has taken hold. These teams met three times last season with Dallas winning twice and the loss was by one point. The underdog is the better team here. 10* Dallas

8* BYU (8:30 ET): So far, only one team (West Virginia) has been able to stay within single digits of #1 Gonzaga. It’s tough to find many flaws with the top-ranked team in the country as they’ve shot the ball at 50% or better in every game but WVU (were 49.3%) and the last six wins have all come by 23+ points. They even defeated Kansas and Iowa, two teams I consider to be Top 10 in the country, by double digits. But eventually the Zags are due for an “off-night.” All we need here is BYU to stay within 17 points, which I believe is very plausible. 

BYU beat Gonzaga last February by 13 points. They did it by holding the Zags to 5 of 25 shooting from 3-point range. Now that game was played in Provo, but note the Cougars have won both of their road games this season and those were not “easy” games at Utah State and San Diego State. The Cougars have played just one bad game all year and that was against USC on December 1st. Other than that, their only loss was by just four points to Boise State. They are more than capable of “hanging” with Gonzaga tonight. 

The win over San Diego State marked the only other time previous to this that BYU was an underdog this season. They were even favored in the USC game, which should tell you that this is a pretty talented team. Tonight is the start of a brutal stretch of three road games (at St Mary’s and San Francisco next week), so BYU does not want to start their 2021 with a blowout loss. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, so you have to expect that they’re ready for the challenge. I don’t expect them to win, but they will keep it close. Take the points. 8* BYU

10* Over Montana State/Northern Colorado (8:30 ET): Here’s an “off the radar” game that quickly caught my attention. Even though Northern Colorado has gone Under in each of its last five games, I think the total is too low here. This will be the first of two meetings with Montana State over the next three days and tonight is also Montana State’s Big Sky opener. Take the Over. 

So far, Montana State has been real “feast or famine” on the offensive end of the floor. They have three games with more than 90 points scored and two with under 60 points scored. While two of the three strong efforts came at home against non-DI teams, the Bobcats did manage to score 91 in a season-opening win at UNLV. One area I definitely see improving is the Bobcats’ 43.2% shooting from INSIDE the 3-point line. That number is just awful and HAS to improve. They do shoot pretty well from three-point range (37.5%) so I see no reason why they can’t improve the shooting when closer to the basket. 

Northern Colorado has failed to reach 70 points in any of its last five games, a stretch which has seen them shoot very poorly as well. Again, you’ve got to expect improvement in that department. The Over is a perfect 4-0 the L4 times Montana State has been an underdog and a perfect 6-0 the L6 times they’ve been off a SU win. They scored 96 points in their previous game, a win over Montana Western on New Year’s Day. 10* Over Montana State/Northern Colorado

8* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): The Bearcats have lost five in a row, the last four all coming as favorites. They are 1-7 ATS on the season (2-6 SU). So clearly they are underperforming. But all of their losses have come vs. teams in the top 100 of my power rankings. Three of the last four have been by five points or less. So I relish the opportunity to take this team as an underdog, something that they’ve been only one other team this season (vs. Tennessee). The Bearcats have played a much more difficult schedule than SMU to this point, so I view the respective won-loss records to be very misleading (which is reflected in the spread). 

SMU just suffered its first loss of the year and it came here at home, 74-60 to Houston. Now Houston is obviously a very good team. But the Cougars also happened to be the first “good” team SMU had faced all season. The only other game they’ve played that was expected to be competitive was at Dayton, which they won by just two points. 

Two things that HAVE to improve for Cincinnati here are their 3-point shooting (just 26% on the year) and the amount of times they turn the ball over (21.1% of all possessions). One would think that those numbers can ONLY get better. The Bearcats have beaten SMU seven straight times by an average of 13 PPG, so this is a matchup they’ve definitely done well with in the past. I see no reason why Cincy should be struggling as much as they are. They were competitive against everyone except Georgia (lost by 15 on the road) and SMU’s 6-1 SU record just seems phony. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Under Pistons/Bucks (8:05 ET): These teams just played on Monday. The Bucks won that game 125-115, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 43 points. The team shot a somewhat ridiculous 57% for the game as well. Though Milwaukee still boasts the most efficient offense in the league, it has not been the same dominant start we’ve seen the previous two seasons. They come in at just 4-3, though all three losses were on the road. It should be another win tonight, but it won’t be as high-scoring.

Not only did Milwaukee shoot 57% from the floor on Monday, but the teams combined to go 31 of 74 from 3-point range. That almost certainly will NOT be happening again. Detroit is a team I project to finish near the bottom of the league offensively. So far they’ve been a bit better than expected, though they are shooting just 43.4% overall. It’s the defensive issues that must be fixed if they are to remain competitive. Already the Pistons have allowed 120+ points four times, though one of the games went to double overtime. 

The O/U line for tonight did open a few points higher than the closing number from Monday, so right away there’s a bit of value to be had. The Pistons are 20-8 Under the L3 seasons, on the road, when the total is 220 or higher. Meanwhile, the Under is 11-5 for the Bucks when they are off a SU win. The Bucks have defended quite well at home so far, allowing an overall shooting percentage of 40.5% and a 3-pt % of 29.7. Some familiarity and obvious decreases in shooting percentage should lead to an easy Under here. 10* Under Pistons/Bucks

8* Boston (7:35 ET): It’s a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals tonight on ESPN with the Heat hosting the Celtics. Coming up short in that series should still be fresh in the minds of the Celtics being that it was less than three months ago. The unprecedented short turnaround between seasons is something to keep in mind when looking at the Heat as their season didn’t end until mid-October. They’ve gotten off to a bit of a “slow” start, alternating losses and wins through the first six games.

If that pattern holds for Miami, then tonight will be a loss. They are coming off a 118-90 win over a bad Oklahoma City team (as 9-pt chalk) Monday night. But they are 0-2 SU/ATS when coming off a win this season, those losses coming by 47 (to Milwaukee) and by 10 (at Dallas). Incredibly, the Heat have had a different starting lineup in every game so far, so things are far from “settled” with this group right now. While all three wins have come here at home, it’s pretty difficult to look past the inconsistency we’ve seen from the Heat thus far. 

Boston turned in its own impressive win Monday, beating the Raptors 126-114 as a six-point dog. They were led by Jayson Tatum’s 40 points. This will be the Celtics’ fourth straight road game and third in four nights. But obviously, the revenge factor should counteract any “disadvantage” that situation presents. I expect them to be the far more motivated team Wednesday night and it would be even better if Marcus Smart returns from a thumb injury. The Celtics were favored in every game in the ECF, remember. They are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this season and 29-18 ATS the L3 seasons. 8* Boston

10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): I think it’s fair to say that most expect Furman to be the pace setter in the underrated SoCon this season. This was a strong conference last year and the teams we’ll be focusing in on today are likely competing for “who’s #2” (behind Furman). We’ve got UNC Greensboro, who is off an upset loss to East Tenn State (who was another good team from this conference LY) visiting Wofford. This is a very significant game for the visitors, not just because of the upset loss Saturday, but also because they have had problems beating Wofford in the past. I think they do so here. Take the points.

The previous two seasons have seen Wofford go 5-0 ATS, 4-1 SU against UNCG, which includes a win in the 2019 SoCon Tournament They are 7-1 ATS the L8 meetings as well. However, the majority of those games were close. Four were decided by four points or less and both games last year went into OT. UNCG ended its four-game losing streak to Wofford with an 83-79 win in the most recent meeting, but obviously did not cover as 9-point chalk. 

I think that a key to handicapping this matchup is the expectation that we will see a reversal of “shooting fortunes” from each team’s last game. UNC Greensboro shot a dreadful 32.8% from the floor in the loss to ETSU, a game they were favored to win by 7.5 points (lost 71-61). Led by Isaiah Miller, arguably the best player in the SoCon, I expect a much better effort on the offensive end tonight from the Spartans. Meanwhile, I don’t think there’s any chance Wofford matches the 63.3% shooting we saw against Samford on Sunday. UNCG is simply better at the defensive end. 10* UNC Greensboro

9* Barcelona (3:00 ET): Despite all the drama, Barcelona has a chance to move into third place in the La Liga table with a win on Wednesday. I’ll grab them at what appears to be an extraordinarily cheap price vs Athletic Bilbao, who is tied for the second most losses of any side in the league. While the narrative is that Barca is “underperforming,” that’s not really the case when you consider they have the second best goal differential in the Spanish top flight, despite playing fewer matches than three of the four sides currently above them. 

It’s a six-match unbeaten run for Barcelona in La Liga as they’ve won four and drawn two during that time. They are coming off a 1-0 win over bottom-feeder Huesca last week. Considering where Huesca currently sits in the table (last), no one is going to call that an “impressive” win, but the Catalans will gladly take it. There was a lot of hand-wringing by the media over the failure to increase the early 1-0 lead, but whatever. Lionel Messi is still here (for now) and this is a match the favorites should easily win. 

Barca has scored 30 goals this campaign, tied for the most in La Liga despite that most other sides have played at least one more match. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Athletic Bilbao has scored only 19 goals. They too were 1-0 winners their last time out (over Elche) to maintain their middle of the table status. Again, that status is quite striking considering they’ve lost eight times already. This will be the first match since a managerial change as Marcelino tries to right the ship, but it’s a tall order trying to come in and beat the titans of this league your first time out. 9* Barcelona

8* Minnesota (9:00 ET): Things couldn’t be going much worse for the T’wolves right now as they’ve lost four straight - by a combined 95 points! Karl-Anthony Towns is injured and won’t play again tonight as the team finishes off a home and home with Denver. The Nuggets won 124-109 in Minnesota Sunday night, getting key contributions from Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and most surprisingly, Facundo Campazzo. But I don’t believe the team can count on shooting 42% from three-point range again, like they did the other night.

Before the win in Minnesota, the Nuggets had gotten off to a very disappointing 1-4 SU start to their season. This is a team that has defied the odds a bit the L2 seasons, winning a lot of close games, not to mention rallying from a PAIR of 3-1 series deficits in last year’s playoff run. I do NOT see them finishing as high in the Western Conference standings this year. Considering they’ve lost three of four home games, the Nuggets are far from a safe bet in this price range. Defensively, they are dead last in efficiency in the entire NBA. 

Minnesota really needs an inspired effort tonight. Not just because of the four-game losing streak. They’ve also lost nine in a row to Denver going back to 2018. They actually shot the ball well Sunday, making more than 51% of their field goal attempts, but it was from behind the arc where they struggled. They made only 10 of 31 3PA and with Denver making nine more 3PA, that was the difference in the ball game. Look for that discrepancy to be a lot tighter tonight and the T’wolves to stay within the double digit spread. 8* Minnesota

10* Michigan State (9:00 ET): Michigan State became drastically overrated because of a win over Duke (another overrated team) on December 1st. That was the last time they’ve covered a spread! It’s seven straight ATS losses for the Spartans heading into tonight’s home game vs. Rutgers. While I do think Sparty remains overrated at #23 in the country, the same can be said for Rutgers at #15 and I think this is where Tom Izzo’s team “gets back on track” ATS. They did just win at Nebraska Saturday, 84-77, as 9.5-pt favorites. 

I had MSU when they beat Duke back on 12/1. It was the start of this incredible 87-55-2 run I’m on entering Tuesday. You wouldn’t have known the Spartans were overrated by that performance, which saw them up double digits most of the 2H en route to a 75-69 “upset” in Durham. They did have three more “comfortable” wins after beating Duke, but were favored by 23 or more in all three. That partly explains the ATS skid. But opening Big 10 play at 0-3 was a “head-turner,” even though two of the losses were on the road and the other game was played on Christmas. I just can’t see them losing tonight at the Breslin Center though. 

Rutgers is off a 2-point home loss to Iowa, which no doubt took something out of them. While the Scarlet Knights did beat Illinois earlier in the year, that was at home. Their last road game resulted in a 12-point loss to Ohio State. That’s the only loss besides Iowa, but I can’t look past what a challenging spot this is as they are back on the road facing a second straight Top 25 team. Michigan State was up 17 on Saturday, so don’t let the single digit MOV fool you and they are 9-0 against Rutgers since becoming conference rivals. 10* Michigan State

8* Texas (8:00 ET): I suppose you could say this is a “letdown spot” for Texas coming off their incredibly impressive dismantling of #6 Kansas over the weekend. The Longhorns won in Lawrence, 84-59 as a 4.5-point dog, which has to be placed among the very best single-game performances by any team so far in this College Basketball season. It was the second largest road win over an AP Top 5 team in HISTORY and vaulted the 8-1 Longhorns into the top five themselves. The good news for tonight is that they don’t have to be nearly as good against an Iowa State team that’s in a trick spot itself. 

Iowa State just played Baylor over the weekend, so the schedule makers are doing them no favors by sending them to Austin right after that matchup. I was a little surprised the Cyclones were able to stay within the number against #2 Baylor, losing only 76-55 as a 15.5-point dog. But the game was in Ames. ISU is the only winless team in conference play in the Big 12. They are 0-3 and let’s not forget how they were obliterated by Iowa on the road, losing by 28. Their only win in the L6 games came against Jackson State. 

Considering Baylor didn’t even play its best game and still beat ISU by 11 on the road, I see no reason why Texas doesn’t prevail by double digits here in Austin. My own power ratings have this spread much higher, at about 17 points. The Longhorns probably are thinking “payback” here after they were blown out in Ames (lost by 29) last season. Texas showed that it is one of the best defensive teams in the country (#4 in efficiency) on Saturday and Iowa State has been held to 65 points or less by each of its previous four opponents. This one could get ugly in a hurry. 8* Texas

9* Over Kings/Warriors (10:05 ET): Steph Curry went off for a career-high 62 points last night in a 137-122 win against Portland. As a team, the Warriors shot 55% from the floor. Neither Curry nor the team will likely be able to match that kind of offensive production here tonight, but they shouldn’t have to for this matchup with the Kings to still go Over the total. Neither of these teams are very good defensively and with Sacramento likely to bounce back from a poor shooting effort in its last game, look for more points than expected in this one. 

Curry’s performance was much needed for a Warriors team that has not been all that impressive in the early going. Lost in the virtuoso shooting effort though was the fact last night marked the fifth time in six games that the Dubs allowed at least 122 points. The only opponent they’ve been able to hold under that number was Detroit, who projects to be the worst offensive team in the league this season. The Dubs are currently 26th in defensive efficiency and they are NOT going to fix this issue when playing for a third time in four nights. 

Sacramento is off its worst shooting game of the season so far as they made only 38.9% in a 102-94 loss to the Rockets on Saturday (just 9 of 28 from three-point range). That was their second straight loss in Houston following an impressive 3-1 start. They’ve gotten to 119 points in half their games. Look for the Kings to regain their shooting touch tonight against the defensively inept Warriors, but also be on the lookout for Curry, who has averaged a stellar 30.3 PPG in his career when coming off a 50+ point effort. 9* Over Kings/Warriors

8* Under Wyoming/Fresno State (9:00 ET): Honestly, I sort of think the wrong team may be favored here. Wyoming just won here, 78-74, on Saturday and is now 7-1 on the season. Their only loss came by two points to Texas Southern in the second game of the season. But beating the same opponent on the road twice in three days is a pretty tall order and the Cowboys were pretty lucky to win here the other night. So I’m looking at the Under, something that hasn’t cashed a lot in Wyoming games this season, but will tonight. 

That lone Wyoming loss saw them blow a 19-point halftime lead in Laramie, so this is a team that probably “should” still be undefeated. The Over is 6-1 their last seven games, but they have not shot the ball all that well nor have they defended that poorly. Their tempo isn’t that fast. They have shot 44% from three-point range in three “true” road games though and that’s a number that’s due to come down. They were 12 of 30 from behind the arc Saturday and also 22 of 26 from the free throw line. Don’t look for them to match those kinds of numbers tonight though. 

It was just a 33-31 game at halftime when these teams played Saturday before the scoring really picked up in the second half. Fresno State actually shot much better overall than Wyoming, but was undone by a lack of three-point shooting (just 5 of 16) and by going just 15 of 22 from the FT line. There were a LOT of free throws made in the final six minutes Saturday, taking a game which looked like a sure Under (game was 58-57 with 6:43 left) to an Over. FSU is 7-3 Under when playing with revenge for a home loss. 8* Under Wyoming/Fresno State

10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): I have a TON of respect for the 5-1 Suns, but this feels like an opportunity to “sell high” on them. Right now, I’ve got Phoenix rated third among all Western Conference teams, but tonight sees them facing one of the two teams above them, that being the Clippers, who are off a loss and thus in no mood to “fool around.” Prior to losing at Utah on New Year’s Day, the Clips only other previous defeat was that head-scratching effort against Dallas. They bounced back from that with a 23-point win in Minnesota. 

Going back to the bubble, Phoenix has now gone a simply amazing 13-1 SU/ATS their L14 games. The only loss & non-cover came in the second game of this season when they fell 106-103 in Sacramento. Since then, it’s been four more victories with the most recent being at Denver (106-103). This will be the third consecutive game they come in as the underdog, pretty remarkable when you consider what they’re doing, but I just can’t see another “upset” here against the best team they will have faced to date.

It was a bad shooting night for the Clippers in Utah (just 38.8%) despite the return of Kawhi Leonard to the lineup after he’d missed the two previous games. It wasn’t “all bad” for Leonard however as he matched a career-high with 16 rebounds against the Jazz, despite wearing a face mask. Look for LA to work the ball inside here against the Suns. The Clippers aren’t just 1-0 SU/ATS off a loss this season, they are 21-8 SU their L29 off an outright loss as a favorite. The Suns can’t keep winning/covering forever, right? 10* LA Clippers

10* So Illinois (6:00 ET): Drake looks to continue its improbable start to the season here as it hosts Southern Illinois Sunday night in a battle of Missouri Valley heavyweights. The Bulldogs are not only 11-0 SU, but also 9-0 against the spread! They opened conference play by sweeping a pair of road games at Larry Bird’s alma mater (Indiana State), winning by 18 and 7. This will be the first of two games in two days vs. SIU and you can bet Drake will be motivated since they lost both games to the Salukis last season. 

Southern Illinois is no slouch in its own right. They too were unbeaten heading into their last game, which turned out to be a shocking 84-72 loss to Evansville in Carbondale. The Salukis were eight-point favorites in that one having just defeated the Purple Aces the day before. This team covered the spread each of its first five tries this season and that includes outright wins over Murray State and Butler, the only other two times they’ve been an underdog in 2020-21. They won here as a 6-point dog, 79-72, a year ago. 

There is no doubt that Drake is going to be fired up for this double revenge spot, however, eventually the Bulldogs’ improbable ATS run has to come to a halt. Not only are they 9-0 ATS this season, they are 47-26 ATS the L3 seasons! Talk about making the oddsmakers look bad! You just don’t see an ATS record like that very often and the Bulldogs are even 30-12 ATS L42 as a favorite. But Southern Illinois is as tough an opponent as they will have faced so far this season and I’m taking the points with an angry dog off a loss. The Salukis led that last game at the half before Evansville caught fire from three-point range. Meanwhile, in their last game, Drake actually went into the break trailing Indiana State. 10* So Illinois

10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): Realistically, Seattle (11-4) doesn’t have much to play for here, so I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points on the road in Week 17. Yes, they still do have an outside shot at earning homefield advantage and the NFC’s #1 seed, but that would require not only a win, but losses by BOTH Green Bay & New Orleans. The latter part of that equation is rather unlikely. Some “scoreboard watching” could lead to the Seahawks potentially “shutting it down” in the second half, making the points look even more attractive in this NFC West matchup.

San Francisco proved last week that they are not going down without a fight in 2020. I took them as a dog against the Cardinals and they delivered an outright win over a team fighting for its playoff life. Since the start of last season, the 49ers are now 9-3 ATS as underdogs with eight outright victories. Three of their six SU wins this season have come against the division (2 vs. LA, 1 vs. ARI) and there is nothing more that they’d like to do here than beat a team they have struggled mightily against ever since Jim Harbaugh left. Since 2012, the Niners are just 4-14 ATS vs. the Seahawks.

This seems like a really nice value on SF considering they were just a 1-point underdog up in Seattle back in Week 8. They lost that game 37-27, but still I can’t see justifying the spread getting this much bigger on the road. Seattle has failed to cover five straight away from home and seven of their wins this season have come in one possession games. I know that it’s a “raw deal” for the Niners having to play their “home games” in Arizona and they’ve yet to win as the “home team” here. But they did just win on this field last Saturday. This will be their 4th time playing here in the last 5 weeks. As I said last week, the Niners are better than their record as they’ve outgained opponents on the season. CJ Beathard is a better QB than Nick Mullens, especially with TE George Kittle back on the field. 10* San Francisco

9* Houston (4:25 ET): The 4-11 Texans have been relegated to spoilers here, but don’t expect them to “tank it” against a hated division rival that they could potentially knock out of the playoffs. Also, Houston does not have any Draft incentive being that they’ve already traded away next year’s 1st round pick (big mistake!). DeShaun Watson and JJ Watt are still both on this team and seven of the Texans’ losses this season have come in one-score games. I expect them to remain competitive at home on Sunday and this is an inflated line due to the Titans needing to win the game (my power ratings say the line should be +3.5).

We know about Tennessee's success since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (20-4-1 ATS!), but they got drilled last Sunday night up in Green Bay. That 40-14 defeat sets up a scenario where the Titans basically must win to get in the playoffs/win the AFC South. A loss would be devastating as the Colts (also 10-5 SU) are hosting Jacksonville and will almost certainly win that game. Oddsmakers are well aware of the situation and have inflated this number knowing the public will want to bet the team in the “must-win” spot.

Something to remember is that these teams went to overtime in Tennessee back in Week 6. The Titans were very lucky to cover the spread in that game as they scored a TD (rather than kick a FG) to win 42-36 as a 3.5-point favorite. Now they are an even larger favorite on the road, so there’s obvious value to be had here with a Houston team that is 14-7 ATS vs. Tennessee since 2010. Something else worth noting is that Houston has outgained its opponents this season while Tennessee has not. The Titans are rarely road favorites of this size, which helps explain the ridiculous ATS record. Take the points. 9* Houston

8* Chicago (4:25 ET): Green Bay has seemingly defied regression this season and is now in position to earn home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. They looked incredibly impressive last week on SNF, destroying a good Tennessee team 40-14 at Lambeau Field. Last year’s Packers went 13-3, but had a point differential of only +63. They benefited from an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU record in one-score games. I thought that record in close games virtually guaranteed fewer wins this season (it usually does), but here we are with the Pack at 12-3 heading into the final game of the season, which finds them favored in Chicago. 

The Bears are just looking to make the playoffs, something that admittedly seemed very far-fetched a month ago. But a 3-game win streak that has seen them average 36.7 PPG has them in control of their own destiny. A win here would clinch a playoff berth. Now beating the Packers has been a problem for Matt Nagy’s team, who lost 41-25 in Lambeau the Sunday after Thanksgiving. But since then, with Mitch Trubisky back in at QB, this has been a different offense/team. The Bears’ offense has put up 30+ points in four consecutive games, something they hadn’t done going back to the 1960’s! 

My prediction of WL regression for the Packers can still hold true with a loss here. That piqued my interest a bit. So did the way the line has moved this week. There can be no denying that the Bears are a much different team than they were the first go-around with Green Bay. While the Packers will be motivated to earn the 1st round bye, the Bears won’t be lacking for motivation either. Trubisky is trying to earn a new contract, Nagy is trying to save his job and the team is trying to get into the playoffs by beating a rival they are 3-18 SU against in the L21 meetings. Take the points with the home dog here. Green Bay just lost its starting LT to a season-ending injury on Thursday, which is certainly significant. 8* Chicago

10* Over Granada/Eibar (12:30 ET): Eibar’s 16 matches have been almost comically low-scoring with just 28 combined goals scored. The 12 they’ve scored on their own is tied for the fewest in all of La Liga while the 16 conceded ranks sixth, behind only the top clubs. But here comes Granada to “fix” things. Despite sitting a somewhat surprising 7th in the table, Granada has conceded 23 times, among the very most in the Spanish top flight. Only four sides - including the bottom three - have conceded more goals this season. 

Yet Granada comes in flashing strong form of late. They’ve won four of their last five across all competitions and have lost just once in the last seven, a 2-0 reverse fixture vs. Real Madrid. Outside of La Liga, they’ve progressed to the knockout stage of the Europa League where they’ll next be taking on Napoli. Here on the domestic front, they are coming off a 2-1 win over Valencia last week. A good number of players will be absent for this clash, a tough break considering Granada is a win away from pulling level with 4th place Sevilla. 

This is a very low total, one that caught my eye. I know what we’ve seen from Eibar thus far, but getting three combined goals doesn’t seem like it’s asking for much here. Eibar drew Barcelona 1-1 its last time out, a result they’ll gladly take considering they have just three wins this campaign. They are currently just one point clear of the relegation zone entering Sunday. Expect an inspired effort at home where they notch at least a goal. Incredibly, Eibar has scored more than 1 goal only once in their L11 La Liga matches, but it’s also tough to ignore the fact they’d conceded five times in two matches before drawing Barca. Each of the last five head to head matches between these two sides have produced at least three total goals. 10* Over Granada/Eibar

7* Atalanta (9:00 ET): All across Europe, we’re starting to see some separation in the various tables and Serie A is no different. I think it’s fair to say we’ve got a solid seven sides that should compete for the four Champions League spots, two of them playing right here. Sassuolo has definitely been an overachiever thus far as they sit 4th, right ahead of both Napoli and Juventus, their best ever standing through match week 14. Coming into the season, Atalanta was one of two clubs I thought could unseat Juventus (9-time Serie A champs), but they are 7th and desperate for three points here after letting one slip away before the Holiday break. 

Atalanta wasted no time in taking a 2-0 lead over Bologna their last time on the pitch, but then turned into a disappointing 2-2 draw. That leaves them four points behind this week’s opponent for the 4th position. Generally known as one of the more exciting sides in Serie A, La Dea needs to be more consistent and that starts with taking all three points at home this week. They were unbeaten across all six fixtures in December, but three of those were draws. They have not won B2B matches on the domestic front since a three-match run in late September/early October.

However, after letting one slip away their last time out, expect a very focused effort from Atalanta here. Sassuolo is a side I expect to see start tumbling down the table. Prior to defeating Sampdoria last time out, there had been some signs of slippage with just one win in the previous five matches and they’d failed to score more than one goal in any of the five outings. The lack of scoring will be a problem against Atalanta, one of the highest scoring sides in the league. Also, the last five fixtures between these two have seen Atalanta go 5-0 with an incredible 20 goals scored and only five conceded. 7* Atalanta

10* Under Cavaliers/Hawks (7:35 ET): This will be the second time (this season) that I’m playing the Cavs Under the total. The first was Tuesday’s game against the Knicks. Believe it or not, Cleveland actually came into that game at 3-0. But I warned you about buying into them and sure enough they dropped that game 95-86 (as a 3.5-pt favorite), making for an easy Under (total closed at 216). The Cavs’ predictable downfall then continued on New Year’s Eve with a 119-99 loss at Indiana, their third game in a row to go Under.

Many believed that this young Hawks team could surprise in the Eastern Conference this season and so far they’ve proven to be worthy of the “hype.” Last night saw them prevail in Brooklyn, holding the Nets to just 96 points on 40.7% shooting, including 7 of 37 from three-point range. Atlanta is now 4-1 SU with the only loss coming in the first of the two games at Brooklyn and they actually blew a 4Q in that one. Making the record look even more impressive is the fact the Hawks have played only one home game thus far.

Hawks’ games have generally been high-scoring thus far, but defensively they have held three of the first five opponents below 41.5% shooting. Offensively, I don’t think they are going to be able to match last night’s blistering 16 of 39 three-point shooting. Cleveland has actually played surprisingly decent defense in the early going (well, not vs. Indiana), posting a top five efficiency rating on that end of the floor. However, in three of their last four games the Cavs have been held to 101 pts or less in regulation. Both of these teams are dealing with multiple injuries in the early part of the season. 10* Under Cavaliers/Hawks

10* UT Arlington (5:00 ET): This is an immediate rematch from yesterday, a situation we’re going to be seeing plenty of this College Hoops season. Little Rock prevailed on Friday, winning 102-93 as four-point chalk. In what was one of the most insane things I have ever witnessed, the Trojans shot 70% from the floor including 9 of 14 from three-point range. Three months from now, my guess is that we’ll still be able to call that game Little Rock’s best offensive effort of the season. I’m taking the points with the revenge-minded underdog here. 

Now UT Arlington obviously needs to shore things up defensively today. The good news is that Little Rock hardly attempted a high volume of threes yesterday. The Trojans went into Friday averaging just six makes per game from behind the arc, so don’t expect them to go wild from deep again here. Nor can they possibly match yesterday’s overall shooting effort. The key is to try and hold Little Rock under 72 points, which - despite what happened yday - is doable. UT Arlington is 4-0 SU this season when holding the opposition under 72 points. 

The Mavericks are a good three-point shooting team as they are making about 10 per game, which places them second best among Sun Belt teams. In particular, keep an eye out for both Wells and Griffin, the team’s most lethal marksmen from behind the arc. This is a really big game for UT Arlington, not just because they are seeking to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play, but also they are 0-5 SU their L5 visits to Little Rock. I thought they might be the right side going into yday and will back them here today. 10* UT Arlington

10* Iowa State (4:00 ET): Oregon is a team that should feel pretty fortunate to even be in the Fiesta Bowl as they only got to play for the Pac 12 Championship because Washington had to back out due to COVID-19 concerns. Making the most of their opportunity, the Ducks upset unbeaten USC in that penultimate game, 31-24 as a three-point underdog. However, don’t let that one win fool you. Oregon was very much a shaky team in the regular season and I successfully faded them twice - their two SU losses (to Oregon State and Cal). They were not all that impressive in their first three wins either.

A win here for Iowa State would not only be an “exclamation point” on the job Matt Campbell has done in Ames, but also perhaps the program’s most notable bowl win EVER. So I don’t think motivation is going to be a problem for the Cyclones, who are coming off a tight 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship where they were -3 in turnover margin, but outgained the favored Sooners. Iowa State is simply much better than any team Oregon has faced this year as the Pac 12 is not as strong as the Big 12, at least at the top. I’ve got four Big 12 teams, ISU being one, rated above every Pac 12 team in my personal power ratings. 

Oregon has had success as an underdog in the bowls previous to this, but Iowa State is 12-5 ATS against ranked opponents since 2017 and 4-1 ATS its last five games as a favorite. Plus, I think the Cyclones are going to be the hungrier side come Saturday and I’m not talking Tostitos (old sponsor of the Fiesta Bowl). Major edge at QB for ISU with Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall should gash an Oregon defense that allowed a ton of rush yards when it faced Oregon State RB Jefferson. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks may be without their top RB (Vardell), which would not be good facing the #10 ranked run defense in the country. 10* Iowa State

8* Ole Miss (12:30 ET): Some of the same trends I discussed for Auburn-Northwestern apply here. Whether or not Auburn covers (this is being written on New Year’s Day), I will follow the trends here for Ole Miss-Indiana in the Outback Bowl. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. So I’m taking the points with the Rebels. 

Indiana went 7-0 ATS in the regular season, the best such mark in the entire country. But they haven’t played a game since December 5th and will be without QB Michael Penix Jr. In two games without Penix, the IU offense has managed just 115 and 130 yards passing. I can’t say that Ole Miss has a stout defense, but not facing Penix is a break. There’s a lot of talk about the Hoosiers having a “chip on their shoulder” here as they felt they should have been selected for the Fiesta Bowl. But they’ve also lost their last five bowl games, not having won one since 1991.

Ole Miss has its starting QB Matt Corral, who threw for nearly 3000 yards and 27 touchdowns in the regular season. Corral won’t have his two top WRs here, but he didn’t have them in the regular season finale vs. LSU either and the Rebels still scored 48 points. This was the SEC’s third best scoring offense (40.7 PPG) and they led the conference in rushing (217.7 YPG). Indiana saw only one good offense this year, Ohio State, and gave up 42 points in that game. The Rebels faced a much harder schedule and will be motivated here for their first bowl since 2016 and first under Lane Kiffin. 8* Ole Miss

8* Arkansas (12:00 ET): So this is a battle of my most overrated (Missouri) and underrated (Arkansas) teams in the country. The road team comes in ranked #12 while the home team is unranked. My own personal power ratings say it should be just the opposite. That’s something that does not happen very often. Sure enough, I just cashed Arkansas in their first road game of the season (at Auburn) Wednesday. That same night I faded Mizzou as they got blown out (at home) by Tennessee for their first loss of the season. Now I can take advantage of the power rating discrepancies on both teams in the same game! 

It speaks volumes that an unranked team would be favored over #12, even at home. Of course, I’m not surprised as I heavily touted Arkansas earlier in the week. The Razorbacks are 9-0 SU with an average margin of victory approaching 27 PPG. Every win this season has been by double digits. My power ratings call them a Top 15 team in the country. They are a senior-laden team that continues to get the job done defensively, allowing an opposing field goal percentage of just 37.7. Of course, the Hogs are pretty good at the offensive end as well with four straight games of 85 or more points. 

Meanwhile, Missouri has had trouble scoring in B2B games. Even before getting held to just 53 by Tennessee, the Tigers could only muster 54 in a nail-biter over Bradley (won that game by 1 point). Both those games were in Columbia. This will be just the 2nd “true” road game for the Tigers and easily the toughest yet. When these teams met here in Fayetteville last season, the Razorbacks held Mizzou to just 4 of 21 shooting from three-point range. The Tigers’ 3-pt shooting has gotten no better this year (only 27.3%!) and Arkansas just allowed Auburn to shoot better than 50% from behind the arc and still won by 12. Mizzou is getting too much credit for its upset of Illinois. They were picked to finish 10th in the SEC in the preseason poll. 8* Arkansas

10* Sevilla (10:15 ET): Looking at the current state of the La Liga table, it would appear as if there are only six sides with a realistic shot at finishing in the top four. Reigning Europa League Champions Sevilla are one of them and you can bet Los Nervionenses would much prefer to be back in the Champions League next season (where they are currently in the Rd of 16 TY). Having moved up to 4th on the back of a four-match unbeaten run in the Spanish top flight, they are in position to do so and a win Saturday against rival Real Betis would have them level with surprising Real Sociedad when the day is done. 

How Real Betis has managed to remain a respectable 10th in the La Liga table is one of the great mysteries of European soccer this campaign. Los Verdiblancos have the most losses in the league (9) and a goal differential (-11) that’s right on par with those sides currently in the relegation zone. Based on those numbers alone, I expect Betis to take a tumble down the table here in 2021. Right now, they are one of the worst-hit teams with injuries in all of La Liga. Last time out, they fell 4-3 to Levante, a match in which they fell behind 4-1 before making things somewhat interesting over the last 12 minutes.

No La Liga side has conceded more goals this campaign than Betis’ 30. That’s a problem in this fixture as Sevilla has conceded only 10 times, which is the second lowest number in the league, behind only the amazing table leaders Atletico Madrid. Since losing three in a row at the end of October, Sevilla has gone 10-1-2 across all competitions with the only loss on the domestic front coming by a 1-0 score against Real Madrid. This is a truly incredible value on the side that’s in much better form of late. 10* Sevilla

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have that very embarrassing loss to Dallas on their resume, but are 4-0 otherwise. They’ve looked very good in those four wins, the last two both coming by 23 point margins. They’ve also won on the road against the Lakers and Nuggets. Utah is a curious 0-2 SU at home thus far as they just lost here to Phoenix last night, 106-95. The Jazz are very lucky that they’re not coming into this game on a three-game losing streak as they managed to beat OKC 110-109 three days before losing to the Suns.

If you recall, I faded Utah when it hosted Minnesota the day after Christmas. That ended up being a 116-111 loss (for the Jazz) as 9.5-point favorites with them trailing most of the way. Then came the 1-point win at OKC, another game they trailed for a good portion of the game (GW shot came w/ 7 secs remaining). Last night vs. Phoenix, the Jazz just “didn’t have it” as they trailed the entirety of the final three quarters. Playing without rest against an opponent the caliber of the Clippers is a really tough spot for New Year’s Day. 

The Clips have lost five in a row here in Salt Lake City, a streak that dates back to 2017. So they should come in properly motivated. Remember that Kawhi Leonard missed the 51-point loss to Dallas, but is now back. He had 28 points in a 128-105 win over Portland on Wednesday night. Leonard is one of five double digit scorers right now for LA, another being Paul George, who went for 23-10-7 against Portland. George has led the team in scoring in three of the five games thus far. This line is a steal. 10* LA Clippers

8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Coming into this College Football season, it seemed as if three teams stood above the rest: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. Those names shouldn’t be too surprising seeing as those three schools have combined to win five of the six College Football Playoffs (LSU last year was the only exception). Sure enough all three schools are back in the CFP this year and #3 Ohio State will play #2 Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, a rematch of last year’s semi final, which took place in the Orange Bowl.

You’re likely to hear a LOT about LY’s Orange Bowl in the build to this game. I know I remember it as the Buckeyes were my 10* Bowl Game of the Year and raced out to a 16-0 lead in less than 25 minutes. But they ended up losing 29-23 and not covering as 2.5-point underdogs, thus dropping to 0-4 SU all-time vs. Clemson, two of those losses coming in CFP semis. For this year’s rematch, it seems as if Ohio State is really being “written off.” I don’t understand that as this remains a supremely talented team and revenge is obviously a major factor. 

The Buckeyes didn’t exactly face a tough regular schedule this year, but they still won all six games by an average of more than three touchdowns per game. They were dealing with massive attrition from COVID-19 (22 players out) in the Big 10 Championship Game when they “only” beat Northwestern 22-10. HC Ryan Day has said he expects “a good number” of those players who sat out the Big 10 Champ Game to play here. Meanwhile, Clemson just announced it will be without OC Tony Elliott (COVID) for this game. Elliott is the play-caller. Look, I’m not going to say that the Tigers shouldn’t be favored here. But the line should not be more than a field goal. Take the points. 8* Ohio State

10* Wright State (7:00 ET): What a wild season Oakland (MI) has had. The Golden Grizzlies opened by losing their first nine games. But then they were fortunate enough to run into in-state rival Detroit Mercy right before the New Year. They won both games there, 77-75 as a 4-point underdog and 83-80 as a three-point underdog. Only one Oakland game this season has stayed Under (1st one vs. Detroit) and I had the Under in that one, which cashed despite the game going into overtime. Quietly, Oakland has covered seven of its last nine, though you should be aware that this very much remains a bad team. 

Wright State is one of the perennial favorites in the Horizon League and they come into the New Year riding a six-game win streak. They too swept Detroit Mercy on the road, winning those games by 23 and 13 points. Back home, the Raiders then swept Green Bay, winning both of those games by double digits as well. In fact, all six WSU wins this season have been of the double digit variety. Tonight certainly seems like quite the favorable matchup as they’ve won and covered seven straight against Oakland, six of those wins coming by 12 points or greater. 

Not sure if it’s the fact Oakland is off B2B wins or that they’ve been covering more often than not lately, but this line seems awfully low. My own power ratings project this to be yet another “safe” double digit victory for the Raiders. This is a team that’s been able to score at least 85 points in four of its last five contests. They are tops in the Horizon League in scoring. Oakland has not shot the ball well all year long and they don’t exactly play quality defense either. Prior to facing Detroit, the Grizzlies had not topped 73 (points) in any game. They are allowing an average of 85.5 PPG. 10* Wright State

10* Auburn (1:00 ET): I believe the wrong team is favored in this year’s Citrus Bowl. Yes, I’m aware that Northwestern made it to the Big 10 Championship Game (where they led Ohio St at the half) while Auburn had a 4-loss regular season. But both were 6-win teams and you simply can’t discount the Big 10 vs. SEC factor here. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. The SEC is 7-1 SU L8 Citrus Bowls. I’m taking the points on New Year’s Day.

N’western is 7-1 ATS this season, which is the 2nd best cover percentage in the nation (trailing only Indiana & San Jose St, both of whom didn’t have a single ATS loss). But this will mark just the third time in 15 bowl games that the Wildcats will be favored (they are 4-10 SU all-time in bowls). That one ATS loss this season came in an outright loss to Michigan State, who was not a good team. The majority of wins were both close and fortunate. The Wildcats were outgained on a per play in the regular season, so they were extremely fortunate to go 6-2 SU. They won three games in which they were outgained. In two of those three wins, they were outgained by 100+ yards!

Auburn should be thrilled to get away from the SEC gauntlet as they are 6-1 ATS their L7 non-conference games. Of course, the biggest news here is that Gus Mahlzan was shockingly fired after the regular season and replaced with former Boise St HC Bryan Harsin. DC Kevin Steele will be the interim coach for the bowl game. Steele’s defense should have a strong game here against an anemic N’western offense that averages less than 300 YPG away from home. Three of Auburn’s four losses this year were to Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia, all top 10 teams. I still consider the Tigers a top 25 team. They don’t turn the ball over (only 8 all season!) and that’s key vs. a N’western D that forced almost 2.0 TOs per game. 10* Auburn

8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia (12:00 ET): So five teams finished the NCAAF regular season unbeaten. Two - Alabama and Ohio State - are in the CFP. The other three all hail from the so-called “Group of Five.” Of course, only one of those teams is allowed in the New Year’s Six every year and this time it’s 9-0 Cincinnati. The Bearcats will try and accomplish what Coastal Carolina couldn’t (and maybe San Jose State won’t) and that’s finish the year undefeated, It won’t be easy though as they’re matched up with #9 Georgia, who has looked very good ever since its embarrassing loss to Florida, in the Peach Bowl. 

Georgia is ranked one spot lower than Cincinnati, but is a TD favorite as of press time. UGA is 3-0 SU since JT Daniels took over as the starting QB and produced its two highest scoring games of the year (49 and 45 pts) during that time. But keep in mind that Daniels and the Dawgs did this against the bottom of the SEC barrel, namely South Carolina, Miss State and Missouri. Cincy brings a formidable defense to Atlanta, one that gives up an average of only 16 PPG. Granted, that was against a weaker schedule than UGA faced, but remember there are lots of offenses from the American that can score in bunches. UCF is the only team that scored more than 24 on the Bearcats’ defense during the regular season. 

Georgia is no defensive slouch either, giving up just 19.9 PPG. I can say with full confidence that Cincy did not face a SEC-caliber defense this year. The closest was probably Tulsa in the AAC Champ Game and there the Bearcats were held to just 27 points, their lowest in any game besides the one vs. Army. The last time Cincy took on a team this talented, they were shut out 42-0 by Ohio State (last year). The Bearcats are probably hoping that UGA “forgets to bring their motivation” on New Year’s Day. Both teams saw plenty of totals lower than this one during the regular season. The AAC Champ Game total was just 45.0. 8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia

10* Boise State (8:30 ET): Those who have followed my picks through the years know it’s quite “unlike me” to play a road favorite of this size (in any sport). But there are always exceptions to be made and in this particular instance we will be going against one of the worst teams in all of College Basketball, San Jose State. Factoring out some of the smaller conferences you may not follow, it could be argued that SJSU is the worst team in a “major” conference. In terms of teams whose games are always lined, I’d say they ARE the worst. They are 0-4 SU/ATS so far vs. D-I teams with three of those losses coming by 33+ points. 

Boise State opened Mountain West play by sweeping a couple games from New Mexico. Neither game was close as the Broncos won by a combined 61 points! Overall, BSU has won six straight since suffering a 10-point loss in the opener to a very good Houston team. That includes an upset, on the road, of BYU where the Broncos were getting 3.5 from the oddsmakers. I expect tonight’s game to go very much along the lines of the pair vs UNM last week where Boise St shot almost 60% from the field! 

This really is a total mismatch. Boise State has won the previous seven meetings by an average of 22 PPG. The last five have all been decided by at least 18 points with four of them coming by 23 or more. The Broncos are #14 in the country in terms of points allowed per game, giving up only 58.0. San Jose State is allowing a frightening 88.4 PPG so far while averaging only 66.6 itself. Led by Derrick Alston Jr, the visitors can name the score tonight and they’ll head into 2021 off a very comfortable win (by the way, they get to play SJSU again on Saturday). 10* Boise State

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Oklahoma City somewhat defied expectations last year, making the playoffs (as a 5-seed) and going a league-best 47-31-1 ATS. But I don’t see them doing that in 2020-21 as they project to be the worst team in the entire Western Conference. They opened with two close games, beating Charlotte (who is bad) by two and losing to Utah by one. Then came an 11-point home loss to Orlando two nights ago. Tonight marks the 2nd time in the last 3 games that the Thunder will host a team they swept last season. While they were fortunate enough to cover against Utah, I don’t see that happening here.

New Orleans arrives in OKC on a 3-game ATS losing skid. They did defeat San Antonio by three during that time, but also suffered road losses to Miami and Phoenix and neither of those games were particularly close. But remember the Pelicans did open the season with a win “at Toronto” (game actually played in Tampa). I think the Pelicans, led by Zion Williamson, are going to be a top 7-8 team in the West this season and this is a game they really should win. 

When you consider that New Orleans has been favored only one time this year, their 2-2 start isn’t all that bad. Something I’m looking for tonight is the Pelicans to show improvement from behind the arc. They’ve made only 21 percent of their 3-point attempts in the L3 games, a big reason why they’ve failed to break 100 points every time. But thankfully OKC’s defensive numbers have worsened with each game and they let Utah and Orlando combine to shoot better than 50% from the floor. 10* New Orleans

10* Ball State (2:00 ET): So my biggest selection of the entire bowl season will be on Ball State. While their opponents (San Jose State) are undefeated (7-0 SU), the Cardinals happen to bring a 6-game win streak of their own into the Arizona Bowl. The last of those six wins was a big one as BSU upset Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, as a two-touchdown underdog, 38-28. That they held Buffalo’s explosive offense to just 7 points in the 2H was every bit as impressive as scoring 35 pts of their own in the 1H. I had the Cardinals in that MAC Championship Game, so I know what they’re all about. You’ll want to be on them plus the points here.

San Jose State also pulled an upset in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, beating Boise State 34-20 as a 6.5-point dog. The Spartans are no worse than 6-0-1 ATS this season (7-0 for some) so they have clearly defied expectations in running the table thus far. You’ve got to give them credit, although the MWC was not particularly strong this season. Something else that jumps out is SJSU having been favored only three times previous to this. Those games were against New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii, none of whom are in Ball State’s class. This is a lot of points to lay against a good team when you’re not accustomed to the favorite role.

Ball State’s only loss came against Miami OH (season opener), a game which they led by DD in the 2H. While four of their six wins have been by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog as the Cardinals are here. I said the same thing going into the MAC Championship. The upset of Buffalo marked the 7th consecutive time Ball State has covered as an underdog. The program has NEVER won a bowl game (0-7 SU all-time) so they will be very hungry on New Year’s Eve. They beat Buffalo w/o RB Huntley, so they can certainly do it again here. San Jose State had just one offensive TD in the first three quarters vs. Boise after trailing at the half vs. Nevada. We saw what Ball State did in the 1H of the MAC Champ Game. My power ratings say this should only be a 2-point spread. 10* Ball State

8* Tennessee (9:00 ET): I talk about my own personal power ratings a lot. Here they are quite instructive as they very much agree with the fact that Tennessee deserves to be ranked among the top seven teams in the country. However, they vehemently disagree with the pollsters assessment of Missouri (who is ranked #12) as I’ve got them comfortably OUTSIDE the top 25. Thus, it makes perfect sense to lay the short number with the Volunteers in this battle of unbeaten SEC teams Wednesday night.

With conference play set to commence tonight, we’re going to learn a lot about the SEC in the coming weeks. Everyone knows about Kentucky’s struggles. But you’ve got three unbeaten teams (Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri) that are viewed as question marks. Personally, I think Arkansas is the 2nd best team in the conference, not Missouri. But there’s no disputing the fact that Tennessee looks every bit the part of the favorite to win the league in 2020-21. The Vols have smashed their first six opponents, winning by an average of 28.1 PPG. 

Tennessee has covered five of its six games, the lone exception being the last game when they were -33.5 vs. USC Upstate and won by 20. The competition has not exactly been “fierce” and critics will point to the fact Missouri has already beaten Illinois here in Columbia as a “sign” they can get it done tonight. But the Tigers’ wins have been a lot closer (than Tennessee’s) this season and they almost lost to Bradley (won 54-53) last week. A big key here is that UT doesn’t turn the ball over much while Mizzou forces very few turnovers. The Vols are also #2 in the country right now in scoring defense. 8* Tennessee

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Both the Lakers and Spurs are off losses here. In each instance, the loss came at home and was on the second night of a back to back. But because the Lakers have already successfully bounced back from one defeat this year, they are being priced as a comfortable favorite Weds night. (They’re also “the Lakers.”) But San Antonio has had one extra day off compared to the Lakers and I think they come out “ready to play” on their home floor. Take the points. 

The Lakers’ loss was to Portland Monday night, 115-107 as a six-point favorite. They led going into the 4Q but pretty much fell apart down the stretch. LeBron scored a team-high 29 points, but didn’t get much help outside of Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder. Bench players tend to struggle more so on the road, so I’m not looking for a heavy increase in production there. I think it’s also imperative to note LA just won the NBA Finals two months ago and they are the team most affected by the unprecedented short turnaround between seasons. 

Even though they are off a 98-95 loss to New Orleans, the Spurs are 3-0 ATS so far. They covered as 4.5-point underdogs down in the Big Easy and had a chance to tie on the final shot of regulation. Previously they defeated Toronto and Memphis. I don’t think I can ever remember a San Antonio team with lower expectations than this one, at least during the Gregg Popovich era. That means we’re probably going to get some good value, at least early on in the season. They are 44-34 ATS as underdogs in the L3 seasons. 8* San Antonio

10* Under Florida/Oklahoma (8:00 ET): I think most people consider this year’s Cotton Bowl - between #6 Oklahoma and #7 Florida - to be the “best” matchup outside of the CFP. There’s a lot going on from a betting perspective. Florida, who is coming off B2B losses, got the bulk of the early money. But the line has since “jumped the fence” and as of press time, OU is now the slight favorite (which my own power ratings agree with). Betting on the total has been lopsided towards the Over, but you’d expect that based on the SEC Championship Game. This is currently the highest O/U line for any remaining bowl game. 

I personally think the O/U line is too high here. I’m aware that both offenses are averaging 41 PPG and that Florida’s defense was torched for 89 points in the L2 games (52 by Bama). But I don’t see that happening again here. Oklahoma has been held to “just” 27 points in its last two games, the Big 12 Championship vs. Iowa State and by Baylor. The Sooners have gone Under in three straight and it has been their defense taking away some of the spotlight from the offense down the stretch. Five of the last six Oklahoma opponents have been held to 21 points or less and the season-long numbers would look even better had it not been for a 4OT thriller against Texas. 

Florida has scored more than 30 points in every game this year, but I don’t see them hitting 40 and that’s key here with the number being so high. TE Kyle Pitts and the two top WRs are all sitting this game out, which will greatly affect the passing game. Yet, save for the SEC Championship Game, this is the highest O/U line for any Gators’ game this season. I’m not sure what happened in those L2 games as the defense really seemed to be turning a corner down the stretch (three straight games holding opponents below 20 points). It is worth noting Oklahoma’s offensive numbers are DOWN from LY. 10* Under Florida/Oklahoma

10* Arkansas (7:00 ET): An unbeaten team playing its first “true” road game is normally something I would tend to fade, but not here as I feel 8-0 Arkansas is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Razorbacks are not ranked, but my own personal power ratings say they are among the 20 best teams in the country right now. They’ve got double revenge on the mind tonight as they visit 6-2 Auburn, who won last season’s only meeting 79-76 in overtime (in Fayetteville). The Hogs aren’t ready to lose yet! 

Auburn has played well at home so far (4-0, +19.0 PPG) but they’ve hardly faced a “murderer’s row.” South Alabama, Texas Southern, Troy and Appalachian State were the victims and the Tigers came in as DD favorites for all four games. It’s quite the opposite here as they get ready for their toughest game since a blowout loss to Gonzaga last month. Auburn is a young team with three freshmen accounting for roughly half the team’s scoring this year. Turning the ball over has been an issue, though so far it’s been alleviated by an ability to clean up on the offensive glass.

Arkansas is a much more veteran team than Auburn with four seniors doing the majority of their scoring. This is a better defensive team than Auburn as the Razorbacks are #32 in the country in defensive efficiency. Opponents have shot just 41.2% from INSIDE the arc and 27.5% from three-point range. Auburn shoots a high volume of threes, but does not make many (29.2%). Arkansas is also even better on the offensive glass than Auburn and doesn’t turn the ball over nearly as much (only 15.6% of total possessions). They are simply better and should be a bigger favorite here. 10* Arkansas

10* Texas (9:00 ET): Unless for some reason they are mentally checked out, I fully anticipate the Longhorns rolling in this year’s Alamo Bowl. UT has certainly gone through some “trials and tribulations” in 2020 (haven’t we all?!) with three losses and HC Tom Herman’s job security even being called into question. But the ‘Horns closed strong by winning four of five and ended up landing in the top 15 of my personal power ratings (higher than their #20 finish in CFP rankings). That this number came down a bit is great as Texas won all six of its games this year in which it was a 3.5 to 9.5-point favorite. 

Texas’ losses this year came either by three points or less (TCU, Iowa St) or after FOUR overtimes (Oklahoma). So they were really close to being undefeated despite three losses. The TCU loss was ridiculous as the offense was stopped on a goal line stand in the final minute after the defense gave up the go-ahead score in the final four minutes. The Iowa State game was another blown lead and they missed the potential tying FG as time expired. No one has really stayed close with Oklahoma since the Longhorns did. While there have been a few opt-outs for the bowl game, QB Ehlinger is still here and he had a 25-5 TD-INT ratio in the regular season. 

Colorado just doesn’t measure up here, in my opinion. The Buffaloes were a surprising 4-1 with that lone loss coming 17 days ago to Utah (38-31). They played no one the caliber of Texas. While CU can run the ball effectively w/ RB Broussard, the Longhorns’ defense ranks 30th in the country in stopping the run. The Buffs are also going to be w/o LB Nate Landman, who was the star of the defense. Of all the remaining bowl games, this is the one my power rating project to be the most lopsided (save for Notre Dame-Alabama, which has a MUCH higher spread). Lay the points. 10* Texas

10* Over Ole Miss/Alabama (9:00 ET): All six Ole Miss games have stayed Under this year, which is quite the streak to start a season. The Rebels are holding the opposition to just 52.3 PPG, but look at who they’ve played: Jackson State, UNC Wilmington, Central Arkansas, Middle Tenn, Tenn-Martin to name a few. Tonight they head to Tuscaloosa to face an Alabama team that’s averaging almost 80 PPG. Look for this to be the first time Ole Miss goes Over the total this season. 

The Crimson Tide’s scoring average would be even better if not for a “clunker” against Clemson on December 12th where they finished with just 56 points. They’ve gone over 80 in all five wins and they are slight favorites here. They haven’t played since last Tuesday, which was an 85-69 win over East Tenn State. While that was a game they were expected to win by DD, they’ve also put up 80+ against the likes of Furman (who is very good), UNLV and Providence. On the flip side, the Tide have given up 71+ points five times already.

Ole Miss scored a season-high 90 points in their most recent game, which was last Tuesday vs. Tenn Martin. Still the game didn’t go Over as they allowed just 43 points against a very bad team. Something that sticks out to me is that neither of these SEC teams have shot the ball very well from three-point range thus far. Ole Miss is down at 28.8% while Bama is at 30.2%. Look for that to change tonight. In terms of adjusted tempo, Alabama is in the top 30 nationally. They are 23-13 Over in all home games the L3 seasons. 10* Over Ole Miss/Alabama

10* Under Knicks/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): The Cavs are a shocking 3-0 with all three victories coming as underdogs. But when you consider they were dogs to the likes of Charlotte (at home!) and Detroit, that record isn’t as impressive as it looks. I will give them credit for the win Sunday as they buried Philadelphia 118-94. That was by far their best defensive effort of the season, at least in terms of points allowed, though they did hold the Pistons to an even lower shooting percentage (40.8) the night prior. The only reason that game ended up being so high scoring (128-119) is because it went to double overtime.

The relatively easy early-season schedule for the Cavs will continue Tuesday as they host the Knicks. Cleveland is favored, so there’s a real legit shot they start the season 4-0! But New York is coming off a shocking 20-point win over Milwaukee where it scored 130 points! The odds of NY scoring that many again here range from slim to none. They are 12-4 Under coming off a game where they scored 130+ points and 18-6 Under coming off a SU win as a dog. While they shot 54.1% against the Bucks, they were at just 38.6% the game before (vs. Philadelphia) and finished with only 89 points. They scored only 107 points in the opener, a loss to Indiana.

Both these teams may be coming off impressive victories, but I still anticipate they’ll each finish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings this year. As for who wins tonight, that’s anyone’s guess, but I like the game to finish Under the total. We’ve got the Knicks’ trends listed above, plus it’s a virtual lock that the Cavs’ offensive production from the first three games (122.3 PPG!) takes a downturn. The Under is 17-5 in the Cavs’ last 22 games following a double digit win. 10* Under Knicks/Cavaliers

8* Manchester United (3:00 ET): Manchester United has charged up the Premier League table and while they were unable to extend a 10-game win streak on the road Saturday, a 2-2 draw with Leicester City was enough to keep the Red Devils in the coveted 4th position for the time being. It's a match that Man U probably should have won considering it was an “own goal” that tied things up in the 85th minute. Nevertheless, it's still eight straight EPL matches without a defeat for Man U heading into Tuesday’s clash with Wolverhampton.

The Wolves also walked away with a draw from their last encounter, 1-1 against Tottenham. They’ll gladly take the point as they were expected to lose to the Hotspurs, but they are still sitting in 11th place in the table, six points behind Man U. I feel there is a stark divide developing between the top and bottom halves of the EPL table and right now the Wolves are on the wrong side of that ledger. They’ve won just two of six and have a negative goal differential (-5) on the year. (Man U is +7).

The Red Devils also have the third fewest number of defeats in the English top flight so far (3), trailing only first place Liverpool as well as Man City. They are #2 in goals scored with 30, again trailing only Liverpool. That’s a problem for the Wolves, who have scored only half that number (15) in their 15 matches. Only the four sides battling relegation - Burnley, West Brom, Fulham and Sheffield United - have scored less. Throw in that Manchester United got to enjoy one extra day off between matches (Wolves just played Sunday!) and it should be three points for the home side at Old Trafford on Tuesday. 8* Manchester United

10* Colorado (9:30 ET): We’ve got two 6-1 teams from the Pac 12 here, although recent form has been quite different for Colorado and Arizona. The Buffaloes, whose only loss came to Tennessee (a top 10 team), have won four in a row and all four wins have been by double digits. Arizona’s only loss came in the Pac 12 opener (78-75 at Stanford) and they’ve now failed to cover three straight following a closer than expected call last week vs. Montana (won by only 6 as 15-point chalk).

This game was originally going to be played on December 2nd, but got postponed due to COVID. While neither of these teams come in ranked, my own personal power ratings say Colorado should be and that they are a top 15 team in the country! Even in Tucson, I feel the Buffaloes should be favored. Holding Tennessee (who averages over 80 PPG) to just 57 is a pretty significant achievement as far as I’m concerned. They are top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency and are pretty good at forcing their opponents to turn the ball over. 

Arizona actually trailed Montana by seven at halftime last Tuesday. That’s not a good sign. While the Wildcats have always been a strong home team, they don’t have anything resembling a quality win this year and I barely consider them to be a top 50 team. They have lived at the FT line this season (9th most attempts in D-I), but Colorado doesn’t foul all that much and ranks 30th in keeping opponents OFF the FT line. Arizona has gotten 43% of its scoring this season from two freshmen and that seems unsustainable. Keep an eye on Colorado’s senior guard McKinley Wright IV. The home team has won 10 in a row in this Pac 12 rivalry (oddity!) but this is the Buffs’ chance to make a statement on the road. 10* Colorado

10* New England (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. I’ll be fading the former here as I just think that this is far too many points for the Bills to be laying. My own personal power ratings have this number much shorter. In fact, those ratings say this line should be under a field goal. So I’ll gladly take the points in this matchup as the Patriots are back in Foxboro for the 1st time in a month (they are 4-2 SU in home games this season). 

Assuming this line doesn’t close lower than -6.5, it will be the most points the Bills have laid to the Patriots since the glory days of Jim Kelly (1993). Quite frankly, being favored against New England is a position Buffalo is completely unaccustomed to being in. They were favored in the first meeting this season, but were just -4 at home. They won that game 24-21 when Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone on the potential game tying/winning drive. That’s the last game the Bills failed to cover btw! It was the 1st time the Bills had been favored against the Pats since Week 1 of 2003! 

New England has not gotten at least seven points in an AFC East game since 2001 at Miami. It’s the first time they’ve been a home dog of 7 pts since that same 2001 season (vs. Peyton Manning and Indianapolis). That was Tom Brady’s rookie season. Getting a FG or more, New England is 22-11 ATS under Belichick and 10-3 ATS when getting at least seven. They are 14-3 ATS (12-5 SU) as a home dog under Belichick including 2-0 ATS this year. So it’s not all “ancient history.” Buffalo has been rolling, but a 7th straight cover when laying this many points on the division road seems unlikely. 10* New England

8* Over Bills/Patriots (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. Here I am targeting the latter streak as the Patriots should be better offensively now that they’ve returned home (where they haven’t played in a month). The last two games saw them run into two of the better defenses in the league (Rams, Dolphins), both on the road, and they had little to no success. Buffalo is giving up 25.4 PPG on the road this season.

You’ll have to check out my 10* Game of the Week (play on the side) for a bunch of historical info on this spread. Bottom line: it’s not often that Buffalo is favored against New England, though this is the 2nd time this year it has happened. It’s even more rare to find them favored in Foxboro as they go for the 1st season sweep of the Patriots this century. New England hasn’t been a home dog of this magnitude since Tom Brady was a rookie. They haven’t been a division dog of 7 or more since that same 2001 season. They haven’t gotten this many points from any Buffalo team since Jim Kelly was playing QB in 1993.

I that first meeting this season, Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone as the Patriots were looking to tie/go ahead. They lost 24-21 as a 4-point dog. The total for that game was only 41, so it did go Over. You may find it curious that the total is higher for the rematch as NE has gone Under in six straight. But this time around the Patriots defense won’t have former Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who is out for the year with a knee injury. The Buffalo offense also seems to be better now than it was back on Nov 1, the date of the first meeting. They’ve scored at least 26 points in every game since. 8* Over Bills/Patriots

10* Utah (8:05 ET): The Jazz were embarrassed Saturday night on their home floor, losing outright (as 9.5-point chalk) to Minnesota. I remember the game well as I had the T’wolves plus the points. The Jazz trailed by as many as 17 before making a game of it late. Their inability to defend the three-point line in the 1st half is what did them in as they allowed Minnesota to shoot 55% from deep and make 11 3PA before halftime. It was a far cry from the Jazz’s first game when they went to Portland and won by 20. 

Now it’s back to divisional play as Utah heads to Oklahoma City. The Thunder have played only one game thus far and it was a 109-107 win at Charlotte as three-point underdogs. Their first game (vs. Houston) was called off due to COVID-19. As a reminder, the Hornets aren’t going to be very good this season. Nor will the Thunder, who have fully entered the rebuilding stage. In fact, I project them to finish with the worst record in the Western Conference this season. It’s a far cry from the Durant-Westbrook-Harden days. 

Now Utah has struggled w/ OKC the last couple years, going only 1-6 SU and ATS against them. But this is a much different Thunder team they’ll be facing, even compared to the one that beat them in the bubble (110-94) last August. The Thunder bring back just five players from last season and guard Ty Jerome is injured (day to day). Again, even though I faded them on Saturday, writing off Utah after one bad game would be a mistake. Winning by 20 in Portland was no small feat and I like how they are shooting more threes this season. They held Damian Lillard scoreless in the first half in the opener! 10* Utah

8* Indiana State (5:00 ET): The fact these teams are playing for the second time in as many days is something you’re going to see a lot more of this College Hoops season. Yesterday, Drake turned in a huge second half performance to win here in Terre Haute, 81-63 as a three-point favorite. The Bulldogs are now not only 10-0 SU, but a remarkable 8-0 ATS. Full disclosure - I had Indiana State yday, a rare misfire, but it’s certainly worth noting that it was a one-point game at halftime. In a unique “do-over” opportunity, I see Larry Bird’s alma mater ending Drake’s unbeaten run on Monday. 

Every one of Drake’s 10 victories this year has been by double digits. So give them credit. However, as I said in yday’s analysis, the schedule has been weak thus far with two non-DI opponents and just three “true” road games (yday being the 3rd). It was a tie game early in the 2H Sunday when the Bulldogs went on a 9-0 run to seize control. They scored 50 pts after halftime, which is somewhat ridiculous, and shot 54.1% for the game (including 9 of 18 from 3-pt range). Duplicating a performance like that, in the same place with no rest, seems unlikely. 

ISU was 3-0 SU at home this year before losing yday and 24-6 L30 home games overall. Their only two losses previous to Sunday came against Purdue and St. Louis, both of whom are very good. Not only are the Sycamores looking to exact some revenge for yesterday, but they are also 0-7 ATS L7 games vs. Drake. So some serious payback is in order tonight. ISU didn’t shoot well yday (38.8%) and truthfully has been pretty cold from the floor in the L4 games. But they are due to “heat up” at the same time Drake is due to cool off. Take the points. 8* Indiana State

8* Under Titans/Packers (8:20 ET): Two of the NFL’s more prolific offensive teams meet Sunday night at Lambeau Field where snow and wind are expected to be factors. Thus, I’m leaning towards this being a lower scoring game than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Yes, we all know what an “Over machine” Tennessee has been since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (19-4-1 O/U record!). But Green Bay has gone Under each of the last three weeks and this is a big number for such a high profile game. 

Given the weather conditions, expect to see a lot of Derrick Henry when the Titans have the ball. Of course, that figured to be the case anyway. But with the weather potentially being such a factor, the Titans prolific passing attack may be kept in check. The Packers’ defense ability to stop the run has been an issue for a while now, but they’ve gotten better as the season has worn on. I’m sure that slowing down Henry has been the main focus of practice all week long. The L3 games have seen GB allow an average of just 18.7 points and 311.7 yards. Over the L7 games, only one opponent (Colts) has scored more than 25 vs. the Pack. 

Tennessee has scored 30+ points in five straight games as they look to go to the playoffs for a second straight season. However, the L2 weeks have seen them benefit from facing weak opponents (Detroit, Jacksonville). Expect more resistance from a Packers team that can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win tonight. The Titans’ Over percentage is second highest in the league (behind only Las Vegas - ugh), but I’m willing to buck that trend here given the gravity of the game and likely weather conditions. 8* Under Titans/Packers

10* Washington (7:05 ET): These teams just played last night (here in D.C.) and there was no shortage of points with the Magic prevailing by a score of 130-120. That makes it five straight wins for the Magic against the Wizards and they’ve covered the spread in each of the last four. Furthermore, Orlando has now opened its season with B2B “upsets” as they beat Miami 113-107 on Opening Night (that was at home). I can’t see these runs continuing though in what will eventually become a common spot this season (that being facing the same team B2B nights), but is still unusual as of right now. 

Washington is now 0-2, but they did cash for me - as 7.5 point underdogs - in the first game (against Philadelphia). That game saw them lead much of the way before fading late. They were actually up 10 - on the road - going into the 4Q. Last night saw another poor finish as they were outscored 39-28 over the final 12 minutes. The team is certainly getting “what it wanted” from Russell Westbrook as he’s now turned in a pair of triple doubles. Bradley Beal also scored a game-high 39 points last night. 

Bench scoring was huge for the Magic last night as they outscored the Wizards’ reserves 53-32. You don’t often see that kind of an advantage for the road team in a NBA game. Don’t count on it happening again.  All that’s missing for the Wizards is that elusive win. They need to work on their defense (easier said than done), but given they had the lead going into the 4Q in both games so far, learning to finish is the most important thing. I think they do that Sunday night. 10* Washington

10* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:25 ET): These teams met back in Week 10 with the Rams emerging victorious by a score of 23-16. They were 3.5-point favorites at home. The stakes are much higher for this rematch as Seattle, not the Rams, can wrap up the NFC West with a win. LA is off a very embarrassing loss last week as they became the first team to fall to the Jets in 2020, doing so 23-20 as a 17-point home favorite. Obviously, they should come eager to atone for such an unthinkable result. But beating Russell Wilson in Seattle isn’t easy as they scored 40 points the last time they played here - against the Jets! 

That this game takes place up in the Pacific Northwest should have a profound effect on your analysis of the total. The Rams are 7-0 Under at home this season and they are the only team in the league yet to have a single home game go Over.  But they are 4-3 Over on the road as the offense averages 28.1 PPG, up a full TD from what they average at home. Similarly, the defensive numbers go up on the road. The Rams allow just 14.4 PPG at home, but 24.0 on the road, a big-time increase. So while Rams’ home games average just 35.5 PPG, their road games are at 52.1. Again that’s a severe difference.

Seattle has had two of its three lowest-scoring games in the past three weeks. Ironically, both games were against NFC East teams. But in between they did have the 40-point game vs. the Jets here at home. They are averaging 31.0 PPG at home for the year. Going into the 1st meeting with the Rams, the Seahawks had gone Over in six of their first eight games. Now they’ve gone Under in six straight. I say it's time for that streak to end. The O/U line for the first meeting closed at 53.5, a full TD higher than what it is here! Over the L3 weeks, the Seahawks defense has gotten to face three bottom five offenses. Not here. 10* Over Rams/Seahawks

UPDATE: Liking this play even more now with the announcement BOTH Colts' starting tackles are out. 

8* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Things have really “gone South” in a hurry for the Steelers, who were once 11-0 SU. They’ve now suffered three consecutive SU losses and have failed to cover all four games in December. Their only win this month came against a Ravens team that was severely depleted because of COVID (game was played on a Wednesday night). Starting with that less than stellar effort, the Black & Gold have averaged just 17 PPG the L4 weeks. A new nadir came Monday night when they lost outright - as a two touchdown underdog - to 2-win Cincinnati. Apologies (from players and coaches) have been issued ever since. 

I know Indianapolis commands a lot of respect in the marketplace. Did you know that the Colts have been underdogs in only one game all season? That was when they closed +1 at Cleveland in Week 5! But this sure feels like a “buy low” spot on the Steelers. The lookahead line for this game was Pittsburgh -3, but after the loss on MNF, it almost instantly “jumped the fence” to where now the Steelers are underdogs for the 1st time all season at home. This line move reminds me a little bit of when the Colts ended up favored against Baltimore and lost 24-10. But that game was played in Indianapolis. 

The Steelers’ offense has been held under 20 points in four straight games, something that hasn’t happened since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season. With fingers being pointed, I expect Big Ben and the offense to “get it going” here against a Colts’ pass defense that has given up three straight 300+ yard passing days. Indy was outgained at home by Houston last week, 425-350. Pittsburgh allowed just 230 total yards vs. Cincinnati, but was an unlucky -3 in turnover differential. Getting points, at home, with a team that started the year 11-0 is a value I simply cannot pass up. 8* Pittsburgh