8* Run Line LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Dodgers +1.5. To me, the Dodgers are pretty close to a 50/50 proposition to win this game. Thus, taking the RL is a pretty attractive option. I've had great success playing the RL thus far in the playoffs, cashing the Indians (won "outright" in Game 1) and the Giants (lost by 1 in Gm 4) of their respective series. In this best of five, we've seen two of the previous four games decided by exactly one run. Both, Games 1 and 4, were Dodger wins. While they've been outscored in the series (21-15), they do hold an 11-5 head to head edge against the Nationals since the start of last season, including 7-3 here in 2016. Both Game 5 starters lost their respective first starts in this series. The stakes couldn't be higher and I'm thinking runs will be at a premium here. I certainly would not be shocked to see LA win and I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss.

The Dodgers will give the baseball to Rich Hill on Thursday. While he hasn't pitched particularly well of late, neither has Washington starter Max Scherzer (more on him in a moment). Hill allowed four runs (in 4 1/3) in the Game 2 loss and has a 4.40 ERA/1.535 WHIP his L3 starts. His TSR (0-3) reflects how he's pitched over that time, but I feel it is important to remember that since coming over to the National League, Hill has allowed 2 ER or less in five of seven starts. He has a 0.905 WHIP in the Senior Circuit and on the road this year his ERA and WHIP are 2.31 and 0.95 respectively, which has translated into an 8-3 TSR. Hill was actually a ML favorite in that Game 2 start, so this is looking like a pretty strong value here. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some of Julio Urias here and though they were shaky in both Games 3 & 4, I have to think the Dodgers' bullpen will be more reliable overall.

Scherzer has a 5.82 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in his L3 starts, similar numbers to Hill. But the difference is that Scherzer has managed a misleading 2-1 TSR. He's allowed a total of 9 runs in his L11 IP w/ both starts coming here at home. I know the Dodgers haven't been hitting particularly well in this series, but they did get to Scherzer for four runs in six innings in Game 1. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the Nats here as they have never won a postseason series. Scherzer hardly has the greatest postseason ERA (3.98) and his lifetime TSR vs. the Dodgers is 2-7 w/ the last win coming back in 2014. One last thing worth mentioning is the so-called "Circadian Advantage" West Coast teams have over their East Coast counterparts in primetime affairs. This game will be the first non-daytime affair of the series. 8* Run Line LA Dodgers (+1.5)

8* New Jersey (7:35 ET): Florida was one of the breakout teams in 2015-16 as they were the surprise winner of the Atlantic Division. But the season did not end well as they were bounced in the Opening Round of the playoffs by the Islanders. I think it's safe to say a little regression may be in the cards on South Beach as you don't often make a jump from three straight non-playoff years to a franchise record 103 points and hold on. It would really surprise me if goaltender Roberto Luongo duplicated the kind of season he had last year (.923 save percentage). Furthermore, at age 44, can Jaromir Jagr (led team w/ 66 pts LY) really continue to carry such a heavy load? I think not. There were some significant changes up and down this roster in the offseason and I see those taking time to gel. I look for the Panthers to be "upset" here on Opening Night.

The Devils are quite the interesting team to evaluate. They only allowed 28.6 shots per game LY and Corey Schneider remains one of the best between the pipes in the entire league. His .933 save percentage on the road is especially impressive. Thus, it's not hard to determine what the problem is here in East Rutherford and that's on the other side of the ledger w/ goal scoring. No team attempted fewer shots per game LY than the Devils (only 24.4!) and that's a problem. But it's a correctable problem. An effort was made to improve the offense  in the form of a trade for Taylor Hall, a former #1 overall pick (2010), who scored 132 goals during his time w/ the Oilers. Though most are projecting another finish towards the bottom of the Metro, I think an improved offense and Schneider keep them in most games this year.

New Jersey ranked eighth in goals allowed last season and ninth in power play efficiency. So, again, there is something to build off here and roster construction has begun to take shape under the still relatively new regime. I'm fairly confident that this will be an improved team in 2016-17. Meanwhile, I'm almost certain that the Panthers regress. It certainly doesn't help Florida's cause that they are already dealing w/ injuries to three significant contributors - forwards Nick Bjugstad, Jonathan Huberdeau and defenseman Aaron Ekblad. 8* New Jersey

10* Montreal (7:05 ET): 2015-16 was something of a "lost" season for the Habs as they went in the tank when goaltender Carey Price got injured and never recovered. Remember, this was a team that opened last season 9-0 w/ Price between the pipes. They stood at 17-4-2 overall when a right knee injury ended his season. From that point on, it was a precipitous fall as the team finished w/ only 82 points (went 21-34-4 the rest of the way) and thus out of the playoffs. But before we go saying "il est une nouvelle année" (it's a new year), note that Price is going to miss tonight's season opener due to the flu. Given all I just said, that seems like a big blow. But Buffalo must deal w/ a key absence of its own. Thus, I'm sticking w/ the Habs here.

The Sabres have been quite terrible for some time now. Their last playoff appearance came back in 2010-11 and there have been some real "lean years" since. They were the worst team in the league in both 2013-14 and 2014-15, but did make the jump to 81 points and out of the Atlantic Division cellar last season. But I'm not ready to go labeling this as a playoff contender by any means. A big blow was struck yday when Jack Eichel suffered a high ankle sprain in practice. He's now out indefinitely. This is a bitter pill to swallow in Buffalo as undoubtedly the fans saw what Auston Matthews did for Toronto last night. Eichel, the #2 pick in last year's Draft, had 24 goals and 36 assists in his rookie season. The loss of him so close to the start of the regular season figures to have an effect on the rest of the team.

Al Montoya will get the starting nod in goal for Montreal here. Last year w/ Florida, he posted respectable numbers in 25 starts (.919 save percentage). It's certainly not a bad matchup for Montoya as Buffalo was one of the lowest scoring teams in the league last season (only five teams scored fewer goals) and now is w/o its best player. The Sabres will turn Robin Lehner in net. Here at home, he posted only a .907 save percentage last season. He started three times against the Canadiens, losing twice, and giving up eight goals on 91 total shot attempts. Even w/o Price, I still rate the Habs as the much better team here. 10* Montreal

10* Under Blues/Blackhawks (8:05 ET): One of the great rivalries in the sport is renewed here on Opening Night. Both St. Louis and Chicago are again picked to finish at the top of the Central Division. While last year's division champ Dallas is being projected to finish w/ more points, I don't necessarily buy that. Of course, revenge will be on the minds of the 'Hawks here as they were ousted by the Blues in the first round of the playoffs, in seven games. Interestingly, all but the first game of that series (a 1-0 OT win for St. Louis) saw at least five total goals scored. That made for three pushes and three Overs when it came to the total. Here, on Opening Night, I don't see that much scoring taking place. I'm on the Under.

St. Louis ended up making it to the Western Conference Finals where they were ousted by San Jose. The expectation for this year isn't as high, but this remains a solid playoff team. This will be Ken Hitchcock's final season behind the bench as Mike Yeo (former HC of the Minnesota Wild), now an assistant, will take over next year. With Brian Elliott off to Calgary, Jake Allen is now the full-fledged #1 between the pipes. While Allen had a bit of a shaky playoff run, he did finish w/ a .926 save percentage in division tilts. Only Anaheim and Los Angeles gave up fewer goals than St. Louis last season, at least among Western Conference teams. On offense, some talent was lost up front, thus a repeat of last year's mediocre finish in goals per game (15th) is probably the best the team can hope for. 

Chicago will of course have Corey Crawford in net here. He was very strong here on home ice last year w/ a .935 save percentage. As a result, the Under went 15-9 in those games. On average, the team allowed on 2.1 goals per game here at the "Madhouse on Madison." Up front, however, some depth was lost and thus Joel Quenneville may need time to tinker w/ his lines (as he is apt to do). Bottom line is I look for a low-scoring opener between two teams that know each other well. 10* Under Blues/Blackhawks

8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): Both teams obviously had last week off. The Ragin Cajuns, save for an opening week loss at home to Boise State (45-10), have been competitive all season. But they are off B2B losses, the last one coming at New Mexico State where they were favored by five. The week previous, it was a two-point loss at Tulane (covered as three-point dogs). That makes it four consecutive games for them decided by eight points or less. So it is curious to see them getting this little respect at home. Yes, they've lost each of the L2 years to Appalachian State, but the Mountaineers are down a bit in 2016. ASU's two losses may have come to Power 5 teams (Tennessee, Miami), but they are overvalued here. Take the points.

App State has gone 13-3 SU in Sun Belt play the L2 seasons, but has not won a conference championship. They did finish with the best YPG differential (+144.4) in conference play last season. But with the more challenging non-conference schedule, it's not much of a surprise that they've already matched the number of losses they had all of last year. Also note that there were three times in 2015 that the Mountaineers won a game by a touchdown or less. They had another such win in their last road game as they had to hold on to beat Akron 45-38. On October 1st, they held Georgia State to only three points. Note, however, that they benefitted from four turnovers in that 17-3 win and it was a scoreless tie at half (7-0 after 3Q). Laying this many points on the road is somewhat unprecedented for the Mountaineers as previously they have not been a road fave of -7.5 to -10 pts since moving up to the FBS level.

As mentioned before, this is a double revenge spot for ULL. They are 0-2 vs. ASU as SBC members including a 28-7 loss in Boone last season. But they did cover there, taking 22.5 pts from the oddsmakers. App State's only visit to Lafayette was in 2014 and while they won outright as nine-point pups, 35-16, it was actually a 21-16 game heading into the 4Q. Including a 28-23 win over South Alabama (who beat Miss State) on 9.17, the Ragin Cajuns are 16-5 SU L21 SBC home games. That makes them look like a tremendous value in this spot. In fact, this will be just the FOURTH time in HC Mark Hudspeth's tenure here (six years) that his team is a home dog. Other than the loss to Boise State in this year's opener, they are 2-0 ATS previously, taking BOTH games outright! 8* UL Lafayette

8* Ottawa (7:05 ET): This is a good spot to take advantage of an early season, "vanilla" line. These teams are actually projected to finish "neck and neck" in the standings, but in both instances, I think the number is off and thus there will be a pretty significant gap between the two by season's end. Ottawa is only two seasons removed from finishing w/ 99 points. They dipped down to 85 last year, but I sense a bounce back here in 2016-17. As for the perennially bad Maple Leafs, I don't see how they get to the linesmakers' projection of 80.5 points. They again finished at the bottom of the Atlantic last year w/ only 69. That made it B2B seasons under 70. Here on Opening Night, I look for the Sens to win the battle of Ontario.

Ottawa enters this season as a team again expected to be on the fringes of playoff contention. Besides the two Florida teams that are expected to finish at the top, the Atlantic is relatively wide open. This probably "should" have been a playoff team last season, but they wound up eight points back despite winning more games than they lost. Erik Karlsson will again anchor an outstanding blue line. In goal, it figures to be Craig Anderson doing most of the "heavy lifting" this year. What I like about Anderson in this matchup is that he posted a .931 save percentage on home ice last year. There's a new coach/GM running this ship, thus I expect a fast start to be priority #1 for the Sens coming into the year.

As for Toronto, well, another last place finish is likely in the cards this season. Last year's -48 goal differential was easily the worst in the Eastern Conference. Only Vancouver out West was outscored more over the course of the season. The team's puck possession did improve some, yet only three teams conceded more goals. At the same time, only one team scored fewer. That's a bad combo! There is much hoopla surrounding #1 overall DC Austin Matthews, but let us not forget that he is 19 years old and thus unlikely to carry a team at this level, at this stage of the game. In goal, the Leafs went out and got Frederik Andersen, but the issue there is he's going to be called into duty far more than he was in Anaheim.  8* Ottawa

8* Run Line San Francisco (8:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. For a 10th consecutive time, the Giants staved off elimination Monday night. The manner in which they did it was quite shocking as Madison Bumgarner, thought to be their "great equalizer" gave up a three-run homer to counterpart Jake Arrieta in the second inning. One would have thought that 3-0 lead would have held up for the Cubs, but it did not as an improbable eighth inning rally took place, keyed by Conor Gillaspie's triple. I was happy as I had the Over, which was a winner before the game was even decided. I'm now a perfect 3-0 in this series (had Cubs in both Games 1 and 2). Thanks to some predictable line movement, we can now grab the home team (Giants) w/ a little insurance (i.e. +1.5) at a relatively inexpensive price.

One issue that the seemingly invincible Cubs have in this series is that Giants hitters don't strike out much, especially here at home. Perhaps AT&T is a "pitcher's park," but its expansive nature somewhat mitigates the Cubs advantage defensively. Whereas Cubs hitters have struck out a total of 28 times in this series, Giants hitters have done so only 19 times. Two of the three games have been decided by one run and San Fran now has more hits in the series. Incredibly, seven of the last eight head to head meetings between these two teams have been decided by one run! The pressure will be immense on the heavily favored Cubs tonight and I think the situation does favor the Giants at home as this organization has consistently proven it can win when facing elimination.

Lefty Matt Moore gets the baseball tonight for the Giants. A mid-season acquisition, he was sharp down the stretch, allowing 2 ER or less in six of his last eight starts. One of the exceptions came at Coors Field, which is basically a "write off." The Cubs have never faced Moore before, which I believe is an edge for the pitcher. In his L2 starts, Moore allowed just two runs in 15 2/3 IP w/ a 17-2 KW rate. Both outings took place here at home. Much will be made of the fact that Cubs' Game 4 starter John Lackey is the last pitcher to beat the Giants in an elimination game, but that took place 14 years ago and has no real bearing to tonight. The Cubs are just 3-7 their L10 games at AT&T Park and w/ Giants pitching having allowed an .177 average the L7 games (2.1 rpg), I see the home team doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5).

8* Over Cubs/Giants (9:35 ET): San Francisco is on the verge of elimination and I don't think the fact that it's an "even year" can help them. Madison Bumgarner might and since he's the Game 3 starter I won't be outright calling for an end to their season tonight. Bumgarner continues to be a postseason giant (pun intended!) as he was masterful in the Wild Card game where he held the Mets to just four hits in a CG shutout. He's also had the Cubs number throughout his career, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 12 starts. But, of course, this is not your typical Cubs team. Even though we have two top-flight pitchers facing off here (Arrieta goes for the Cubs) and the Under is 4-0-1 the last five meetings, I'm going to make a surprising call and go w/ the Over here. The number is just too low.

The key to this play resides on the Arrieta side. Last year's Cy Young winner regressed a bit in 2016, which was expected. There was simply no way he could match LY's numbers (1.92 ERA, 0.865 WHIP). Really, the regression began in LY's playoffs where he allowed four runs in B2B starts. Arrieta's regular season was still great by most pitchers' standards. But dating back to the final start of June, there were five times when he allowed at least 5 ER. His worst outing of the year came his last time out when he gave up seven runs in just 5 IP vs. the Pirates. He's had plenty of time to rest since then (11 days off!), but a 4.33 ERA over his L7 starts should be taken as a warning sign. Also, the Over was 11-1 in Arrieta's 12 road starts during the regular season, and none of the totals for those starts were as low as this one.

Ironically, I did play the Under in the NL Wild Card Game w/ Bumgarner starting. But he was also facing a much weaker offense there (Mets) in a park known for low-scoring games. Giants' home games averaged a solid 8.4 rpg in the regular season. Same w/ Cubs' road games. In fact, the Cubs finished the year tied (w/ St. Louis) for the most runs per game scored on the road at 5.2. Bumgarner and Arrieta did face off in early September and it was the pitcher's duel most expected (3-2 Giants' win). But that was at Wrigley. For the Cubs, the Over is 7-2 this year when playing on the road and the total is 7 or less. 8* Over Cubs/Giants

10* Under Bucs/Panthers (8:30 ET): Carolina led the NFL in points per game last season (31.3), but happened to do so in spite of the fact they actually finished just outside of the top 10 in yards per game. That's sure seems like an "unsustainable business model," no? Ironically, they are fourth in yards per game this year (386.5), but only eighth in points (27.3). Funny how that works! Certainly, there should be an expectation of an offensive decline here w/ Derek Anderson and not Cam Newton as the starting QB. Those making the argument that Anderson is a "capable backup" and that there "won't be any kind of huge dropoff at the QB position" best check that opinion at the door as there isn't a single competent football mind that would consider playing Anderson over Newton in a non-injury situation. 

Tampa Bay has been real "feast or famine" offensively through the first four games. Twice, including last week, they've been held to just seven points. They came into the week w/ the worst point differential in the entire league. QB Jameis Winston continues to turn the ball over too much (Bucs are -9 in TO department thus far) and I don't see him taking advantage of the Panthers' secondary in the same way Falcons QB Matt Ryan did last week. Furthermore, Winston doesn't have a receiver like Julio Jones to throw to. Through four games, the Bucs offense ranks outside the top 20 in both yards and points per game. They average only 82.5 YPG rushing. Missing here will be RB Doug Martin as well as his backup Charles Sims. Also out is WR Cecil Shorts III.

Carolina has beaten Tampa Bay six straight times and the Over cashed both times in LY's sweep. That was largely owed to the fact that the Panthers averaged 37.5 PPG in the two wins. I just don't see that happening here. Both of Anderson's starts w/ Carolina have come against Tampa Bay. Both games took place in the 2014 season. Both stayed Under w/ the Panthers averaging just 19.5 PPG, roughly half what they scored LY w/ Newton behind center. On the defensive side of the ball, I do expect a bounce back from Carolina after being embarrassed last week. Tampa Bay is 10-5 Under as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, including 6-3 on the road when priced at +7.5 or less. 10* Under Bucs/Panthers

10* Boston (6:05 ET): Note: My Game 3 analysis remains unchanged from yday's rainout! Prior to the start of the playoffs I called for a Cubs-Red Sox World Series. Yet, I've been on Cleveland in each of the first two games of this LDS. Game 1, I took the Tribe +1.5 and them winning that game "outright" may prove to be the difference in this series. Game 2, started by Corey Kluber, was always the spot where you'd favor the Indians. With the benefit of hindsight, Boston losing the final two games of the regular season may come back to haunt them. It cost them the homefield edge in this series and possibly beyond as top seed Texas has been eliminated. That all being said, I'm backing the Red Sox here as the series shifts to Fenway Park where the team is far tougher. Boston is 9-2 this season when on a losing streak of 3+ games.

I don't think the Boston offense can be kept in check for long. They paced MLB during the regular season w/ 878 runs scored. The #2 team (Cubs) was at 808. But in the first two games of this series, Red Sox hitters have really struggled at the plate. They were shockingly held to only three hits by Kluber and company in Game 2 Friday. But I fully anticipate them waking up w/ the return to Fenway. Only Colorado, who is always aided by their unusual park, scored more runs per game at home this season. Paced by a .300 team batting average, the Sox averaged 5.9 rpg at home. I realize that Cleveland's starter Josh Tomlin comes in having pitched quite well over his L4 starts. But, for the season he has a 4.42 ERA.

It's a bit of a similar situation w/ Clay Buchholz for Boston. His YTD numbers are not great, but he has pitched well recently. His L3 starts have seen him deliver a 1.42 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. What's the difference between him and Tomlin then? Well, Buchholz will benefit from going against an offense that is very likely set to decline on Monday evening. The first two games of this series have seen Cleveland score 11 runs and hit four home runs. In my analysis, I documented how the Indians are actually the third highest scoring home team in baseball (trailing Colorado and Boston). But, on the road, the drop is severe. The Tribe ranks just 27th in rpg scored on the road while posting the second worst team batting average (.236). They are 28th in OPS (OBP + slugging) at .691. The Red Sox will not be swept. 10* Boston

8* Under Giants/Packers (8:30 ET): Overwhelmingly one-sided public betting on the Over has me now going the other way Sunday night. The Giants have been held to 20 pts or less in three of four games this season (27th in PPG) and have major internal issues right now w/ WR Odell Beckham Jr. Their defense, save for the Redskins loss (which was also their highest scoring game on offense) has been much improved as well. They've held Dallas, New Orleans and Minnesota all to 24 points or less. The G-Men are 29-14 Under L43 road games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 

Don't look for the Giants to have much success running the ball in this game. They are w/o RB Rashad Jennings and will be going against a Packers' defense that has allowed no more than 50 yds rushing in any of its three games! Allowing averages of just 43 YPG rushing on 1.8 YPC are easily both league bests coming into this game. This will put a lot of pressure on Manning, who is already having to endure the Beckham drama.

Even though WR Jordy Nelson is back, the Packers' offense just doesn't seem to be a strong as it once was. The Week 3 win over the Lions saw them gain a season-high in total yards, but even then the number was just 324 total yards. Both Minnesota and Jacksonville were able to hold them under 300 total yds.  As I said earlier, the Giants defense is much improved this year. This will likely close as the highest O/U line for any Green Bay game this season. It will be the second highest for the Giants, falling short of only the Saints game that had a 53-pt total. Of course, the final score there was only 16-13 and the offense failed to score even a single touchdown on what was the league's worst defense in 2015.  8* Under Giants/Packers

6* Toronto (7:30 ET):  Rangers fans will desperately want to cling to the fact that LY' LDS saw Toronto lose the first two games at home, only to take the next three at their team's expense. But I do not see the script being flipped in 2016. There's no skirting around how poor the Rangers' record in home LDS games now is (1-11!) and the fact they are "up against it" having to stay alive in Rogers Centre where the host Jays should enjoy a tremendous advantage. There's also no getting around the fact that Texas is simply a very average baseball team. I've harped on this all year, but their +8 regular season run differential (were 36-11 in one-run games!) was an ominous sign for the playoff. This was a .500 team masked in "95-win clothing."

Toronto's pitching has been underrated all season long. Last season, the offense carried the team. This year, they gave up the fewest number of runs in the entire American League! Aaron Sanchez was a big contributor to that pitching prowess and he gets the starting nod tonight in Game 3. He comes in w/ a 1.42 ERA and 1.000 WHIP his L3 starts and actually led the American League in ERA for the entire regular season! He allowed just 3 ER total in 19 IP those L3 starts, including a critical win over Boston. Over the L7 games, Toronto has given up an average of just 2.7 rpg w/ opponents batting a woeful .207. They've won the last five and given up just four runs total in this series. They're in real good shape here.

Texas will counter w/ Colby Lewis. He has not pitched well of late (6.93 ERA, 1.694 WHIP L3 starts), nor has he pitched well against the Blue Jays in his career. In 12 career starts vs. them, he has a 6.17 ERA and that includes 5.81 in six starts here in Toronto. Furthermore, the Rangers' offense is not very good on the road. They decline to 25th in team batting average and 29th in OBP, looking at only road games. I'll call for this fortunate season of theirs to come to its official end tonight. Factoring in Games 1 and 2, the Rangers have now been outscored over the course of the season! For a frame of reference, Toronto has a YTD run differential of +104.  The Jays are 9-3 L12 head to head vs. the Rangers. 6* Toronto

10* Buffalo (4:25 ET):  The wrong team is favored here in my estimation. Despite a 3-1 record, the Rams still have been outscored this year - by 13 points - as they were shutout in the opener (28-0) by San Francisco of all opponents. Since then, they've somehow managed to beat both the Seahawks and Cardinals despite scoring all of TWO offensive touchdown in those two victories. The 9-3 win, here at home, over Seattle was obviously all field goals and probably would have been a loss if not for a late Seahawks' fumble in LA territory. Last week, a big special teams play (47-yd punt return) was the difference in a 17-13 road win over Arizona. It also helped that Carson Palmer was knocked out of that game w/ a concussion because on the Cardinals' final two drives, backup Drew Stanton threw INTs in Rams territory. It should be noted that LA was actually outgained, 420-288, an Arizona had more than double the number of first downs (26-12).

Buffalo was seemingly left for dead at 0-2, but things have taken a real turn here the L2 weeks. The big focus was on Rex Ryan firing OC Greg Roman after the Jets loss, but it has been Ryan's defense that has keyed the turnaround. I had the Bills when they beat Arizona two weeks ago, 33-18, thanks to creating five turnovers. Last week may have been the "high water" mark of the Ryan era here in upstate NY as the team shut out New England, on the road, 16-0. Granted, they were facing an injured, third-string rookie QB in Jacoby Brissett, but is the Rams' Case Keenum really someone they should be fearing? I think not. The Rams' offense has failed to gain even 300 total yards in three of their games this season and w/ RB Todd Gurley struggling to get going (2.6 YPC), I see another strong effort from Ryan's defense. Los Angeles actually ranks dead last in the league in total offense right now at 269 YPG.

Earlier I mentioned that the Rams actually have a negative point differential (-13) despite their 3-1 SU record. That point differential actually ranks 21st in the league right now. Buffalo is in the top 9 at +19. So again, I believe the wrong team is favored here. Furthermore, it's expected to be a low-scoring affair, so taking the points is always a prudent move in that situation. The Rams are a bad offensive team that's not favored often. Thus, they are excellent fade material. Buffalo is 13-6-1 ATS the L20 times it has been an underdog, winning 12 of those games straight up. 10* Buffalo

10* San Diego (4:25 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, when it comes to season win totals, the Chargers (7.0) were my top Over bet. Needless to say, it has been an infuriating start to the year w/ the team now 1-3 SU and having blown three fourth quarter leads. Last week, though I was not on them, was the most painful of the lot as they went from being ahead 34-21 w/ just under three minutes to go, to a 35-34 loss due to two ill-time fumbles. This against the previously winless Saints, at home. Don't even get me started on the Week 1 disaster at Kansas City that saw San Diego blow a 17-pt 4Q lead and lose in OT (thankfully, they still covered). There was also a four-point loss at Indy (allowed long TD pass late). Though they've now lost FOUR starters to season-ending injuries, I'm calling for an end to this madness. Take the points and the Chargers.

Oakland is 3-1, but overrated. Note they have a point differential of just +2. San Diego, meanwhile, is 1-3 SU but has a +13 point differential. The Raiders have a pair of one-point wins, one over New Orleans and then last week at Baltimore, to their credit. Their other win came by a touchdown over Tennessee. Give this team credit for three road wins (all out East!), but every game could have gone "either way." The one time they were at home, they were favored and lost outright to Atlanta, 35-28. The problem w/ the Silver and Black is a defense giving up an average of 460 YPG. Last week, they were outgained by Baltimore 412-261 and had 12 fewer first downs (25-13!). Talk about a phony win! The Raiders are now being outgained, on average, by 68 yards per game. They allowed 500+ yards to both the Saints & Falcons.

Oakland actually swept the season series from San Diego LY, doing so for the first time since 2010. From 2011 through 2014, the Chargers won seven of eight overall matchups. This is just the third time since '03 that the Raiders have been favored over the Lightning Bolts. All three games were at home and the Silver and Black are 0-3 ATS. That includes last year, when they won 23-20 laying four points. True to form, San Diego led that game going into the 4Q. Regardless of what the records say, the better team is getting points here. 10* San Diego

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns, I assure you, promise to be the least "popular" side among the public here in Week 5. They draw the Patriots, who get Tom Brady back following a four-game suspension and coming off a shutout loss at the hands of the Bills, the expectation will be a New England blowout. But even though Cleveland is 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS), as expected, that doesn't necessarily reflect how competitive they've been. Last week, on the road, they led Washington in the fourth quarter. All of a sudden, they were then unable to hang onto the football w/ THREE fourth quarter turnovers (one ruled fumble was a VERY questionable call by the officials) and also a turnover on downs. They actually outgained the Redskins, 380-301. Two weeks ago, they took Miami into overtime, also the road. They had the edge in total yards there as well in what was an automatic cover for me once the game went into OT. Then, three weeks ago, the Browns were up 20-0 on Baltimore, yet those stuck w/ the closing line of 4.5 did not cover as the Ravens rallied for a 25-20 victory, stopping Cleveland w/ a goal line INT. Again, the Browns had the edge in total yards there.  Take the points. 

New England was shutout last week, at home no less, 16-0 by Buffalo. I realize the Pats were starting an injured, rookie third string QB (Jacoby Brissett). But Cleveland is also down to a rookie third-stringer (Cody Kessler) and he fared much better. The week prior, the Pats offense gained only 282 yds in a shutout that happened to go their way, 27-0 over Houston (Thurs night game). Miami, they had to hold on to beat 31-24. Week 1 was a bit of a stunning upset, as nine-point dogs, but that no longer looks as impressive given the Cardinals' 1-3 start.

It is very rare to find a road team favored by double digits in this league. It happened just four times all of last season and twice was in the meaningless final week. Since 2011, DD road chalk is just 8-13 ATS (w/ four outright losses). Even the Patriots have only been in this role four times throughout Bill Belichick's tenure. In fact, as a road favorite of a TD or more, NE is just 1-7 ATS dating back to Week 16 of the 2012 season! This line, which should be only about a touchdown in my estimation, is all about the expectation of Tom Brady coming in and being in "mid-season" form. There is no guarantee that he will play that well. 8* Cleveland

8* Detroit (1:00 ET): 3-0 and off a bye, Carson Wentz & the Eagles are the "toast of the town" right now in Philly (Phillies & Sixers both stink anyway). Shame on me, I projected this team to win only three games all season! Obviously, that was a bad call, but what I never could have anticipated was the Eagles actually being asked to lay points in a road game this year. Yet, that's the situation this week in Detroit and the public seems willing to throw their support behind the unbeaten team. The Lions were a team that I played AGAINST LW and that proved to be a prudent maneuver as they (as road favorites!) lost outright to the previously winless Bears! I'll call for "the script to be flipped" Sunday afternoon and I would not be at all surprised to see Detroit take this one outright. But take the points.

Wentz has received the "lions-share" of the attention (pun intended!) for his team's 3-0 start, but really it's been more about the defense. Wins over Cleveland and Chicago really aren't that impressive when you think about it (notwithstanding this week's play on the Browns or last week's on the Bears!). Now the shocking Week 3 dismantling of the Steelers obviously was quite impressive, but I'm going to simply write that one off as an outlier. On the road, Philly was actually outgained by Chicago, but aided greatly by Jay Cutler turnovers. Provided Detroit can take care of the football here, things can go their way. The Eagles are +6 in the turnover department so far, but have actually fumbled three times themselves, only to come up w/ the ball every time. Lucky! I was pretty shocked to find that the Eagles are 24-5 SU coming off a bye since 1993. But that's pretty meaningless given it's a whole new reigme here. If anything, that record is due to regress. Then again, might the fact that the team is 1-7 ATS laying a FG or more on the road (since 2012) mean a little bit more?

Detroit opened this season by going to Indianapolis and beating the Colts outright, 39-35, as three-point dogs. I've since bet against them both times that they were favored, at home vs. Tennessee and LW at Chicago, getting a perfect result. In between those two outright losses was a rally that fell short at Green Bay. As bad as things look right now in the Motor City, this team finds itself playing for its season and I expect an inspired effort Sunday. I wouldn't trust the Eagles CB's against these Lions' WR's plus LB Nigel Bradham was arrested last weekend. There is a chance that OL Lane Johnson could be out (suspension) as well for the road team. 8* Detroit

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): I'll complete these trio of what are sure to be "unpopular" sides this week w/ the Jets, who are coming off a 27-17 humbling at the hands of the Seahawks. Going from facing Seattle to Pittsburgh may seem like a brutal spot for this fledgling team, but this is a classic instance of fading a team coming off an impressive win in a nationally televised game. The Steelers looked like "the Steelers" again in a 43-14 beatdown of the Chiefs last Sunday night, so everyone is likely to be back on their bandwagon. Especially since that's the same Chiefs team that beat the Jets 24-3 the week prior, forcing EIGHT turnovers in the process. But just because A > B  and B > C, does not make A > C in this league. I'm going to take the points and rely on the Jets' defense keeping them in this one.

So far, the line for every Jets game has been a field goal or less. Three games were basically pick 'ems. Three more turnovers (forced none) were killers LW vs. Seattle, a game they were in until the fourth quarter. Remember that the team's first loss, at home to Cincinnati, came by one point and was decided on a last second FG. Even the 8 TO disaster at Kansas City was not out of reach when the 4Q began. The key is the defense, which would have a lot better numbers if not for the offense turning the ball over so much. I realize the offense is down a couple of receivers, one of them Eric Decker, but if Ryan Fitzpatrick can just complete the ball to a player wearing green, they'll be okay. Remember that the Steelers are just two weeks removed from a 34-3 blowout at the hands of the Eagles.

The biggest key here will be the Jets' defensive line going against a suspect Steelers' offensive line. Pittsburgh could again be w/o starting LG Ramon Foster this week. On the other side, RT Marcus Gilbert is questionable at best and his backup Ryan Harris also got hurt last week. That means Mike Tomlin may be forced to start a practice squad member along the offensive front. The Jets' defense is allowing just 70 yards rushing per game so far and no opponent has gained more than 86 yards over land against them. That's #3 in the league right now. The pass rush, a bit of a disappointment LW (only 2 sacks) should do a better job at getting home here. 8* NY Jets

8* Houston (1:00 ET): Admittedly, I don't have much of an affinity for the Texans. Their offense is fairly dreadful and they were lucky to escape w/ a win LW at home vs. Tennessee (won 27-20 w/ the difference being a punt return for a TD). But the defense, even sans JJ Watt, must be still be respected. This Week 5 battle w/ Minnesota promises to be low-scoring (one of the lowest totals on the board) and thus taking the points seems like a wise decision here. What's interesting here is that the Vikings are in the unusual spot of actually receiving the public's support in this one. Typically, the public fades them (and I made the mistake of doing so Monday as well), which is why they've been able to amass a remarkable 18-3 ATS record (4-0 ATS in 2016) since the start of last year. But this is a bit of a bad spot considering it's a short week and they have to play a 1 PM ET game. Take the points.

The Vikings actually rank 31st in the league in total offense (290 YPG) coming into this game. In the first three weeks of the season, they scored all of three offensive touchdowns. So let's "pump the brakes" a bit on all this Sam Bradford talk, shall we? Week 1 was a fortunate win over a bad Tennessee team as the defense scored twice in the second half. It was an upset of Green Bay (were +1.5), at home, in Week 2 as they prevailed by just a field goal. Week 3 saw them go to Carolina and win 22-10, but again it was the defense supplying both a touchdown and a safety. That's a somewhat unsustainable way to win games. Monday night against the Giants, two of their scoring drives (resulting in 10 pts, the difference in the game) started in opposing territory. Without Adrian Peterson, the Vikings just can't run the ball as they are averaging only 64 YPG for the year, which is dead last. It looks as if there is a good chance that this will be the first time in the Zimmer era that the Vikes will be asked to lay more than seven points.

Conversely, the Texans rarely find themselves catching this many points. There was only one game all of last season where they got more than a touchdown from the oddsmakers (were +10 at Cincinnati on MNF) and they wound up winning that game outright. Note that the advanced line for this game was only Minnesota -4, so there's now some real solid value on the other side. Remember, the Vikings have not scored more than 25 pts in any game this season and that high-water mark only came as a result of two defensive scores. 8* Houston

8* Oregon State (9:00 ET): Cal has been involved in almost nothing but wild games this year. Perhaps that is apropos for a team that opened its season in Austrailia. That was a 51-31 win over Hawaii, but since then it has been nothing but close games for HC Sonny Dykes. They went to San Diego State and lost 45-40 as 5.5-point dogs. That's a game they never led (despite 600+ total yds on offense) and allowed Aztecs RB Donnel Pumphrey to run wild (281 yds, 3 TDs). Then, back in Berkeley, they stunned Texas 50-43 despite giving up almost 600 yards. A 51-41 loss to Arizona State may have been the wildest of the bunch as they blew a two TD halftime lead and the cover when they allowed an onside kick return for TD. Last week's 28-23 win over Utah required a goal line stand on the final possession.

As you can tell from some of those Cal scores, they do not have a stout defense, last week's goal line stand notwithstanding. They're allowing an average of 38.6 PPG, making them a less than ideal candidate to be laying double digits on the road. Last week, which was at home, was their best defensive performance and even still they allowed 443 total yards. I've admittedly been quite impressed with Dykes' offense, especially considering it lost #1 overall NFL DC Jared Goff. But considering the Bears have yet to post B2B SU victories this year, they are excellent fade material in this spot. Note that from 1999-2013, the Bears were just 3-12 SU vs. Oregon State, but have now posted B2B victories against them. Rarely, if ever, during this time have they been favored in Corvallis. 

Last year was a rebuilding campaign for OSU in their first year under Gary Andersen. The team went 2-10 SU overall and 0-9 SU vs. the Pac 12, getting outgained by over 200 YPG in conference play. They are a far more experienced team this season, though that did them no favors LW in Colorado where they were hammered 47-6. But that result has also created this situation where we can grab a ton points with the home dog. Earlier in the year, the Beavers played both Minnesota and Boise State tough. I'll call for this to be their best offensive game vs. a FBS foe under Andersen. This is the first time that Cal has been favored in a "true" road game since facing Washington State in 2012. Take the points. 8* Oregon State

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Coming into this series, I thought the Giants didn't have much of a chance, save for Game 3 when Madison Bumgarner will get the baseball. Therefore, they probably let one slip away last night as they held the Cubs to three hits, but came up short, 1-0. The San Francisco offense doing little did not surprise me. In my Game 1 analysis, I talked about how they were likely to struggle at the plate in the first two games of this series. Road teams average a MLB low 3.0 rpg here at Wrigley Field. The offense is not likely to pick up tonight facing Kyle Hendricks, who has a 0.857 WHIP here at the Friendly Confines. Go w/ the Cubs again tonight.

Among the regular starters in the Cubs' rotation, Hendricks has both the lowest ERA and WHIP. As was the case w/ Lester yday, he did struggle some in his final regular season start. But we saw how Lester bounced back yday. Sticking with this theme, like Lester, he had allowed 2 ER or less in all previous starts dating back to August 1st. Somewhat incredibly, Hendricks never allowed more than 4 ER in any start this year! Three of the six times he allowed that many, it was a result of unearned runs. The one time he faced the Giants, he allowed one run and three hits in 5 1/3 IP. In addition to the tremendous WHIP here, Hendricks also had the lowest home ERA (1.32) in all of baseball.

Jeff Samardzija allowed three runs in four innings the one time he faced his former team this year. The Giants starter has a 4.03 ERA on the road this year. San Fran is now just 3-9 its L12 games here in Chicago.  The Cubs are 11-4 after winning their previous game in a shutout fashion. As a road underdog of +150 to +175, the Giants are 1-5 this season and 7-17 the L3 seasons. In seven years pitching here, Samardzija posted a 3.97 ERA.  8* Chi Cubs

8* Oregon (7:30 ET): This is a classic letdown spot for Washington, who I had last Friday as the home team in a 44-6 demolition of Stanford. That win announced the Huskies' presence on the national scene as Chris Petersen has his team in position to compete for one of the four spots in the CFP. But, it will be highly difficult (if not match) the emotion from last week's win. If either team should be emotional here, it should be a desperate Oregon side that has shocking lost three in a row. Two of those losses were by just a field goal and then last week brought perhaps the nadir of the Mark Helfrich era as they lost 51-33 at Washington State. I couldn't tell you the last time the Ducks lost two straight, let alone three straight. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs the L3 seasons and 46-6 SU L52 games here at Autzen Stadium. I don't believe they'll win straight up, but this is a remarkable value.

Certainly "times they are a changin'" in the Pac 12, but it's worth pointing out that Oregon has beaten Washington 12 straight times, 11 of those wins coming by 17+ points. So, yes, this has been quite the one-sided rivalry. Washington did just vanquish some recent poor history against Stanford, but again, that was in Seattle. So far, the Huskies have played just one "true" road game. The result of it was an overtime win over a severely depleted Arizona team (missing starting QB and RB). Little can be derived from the Huskies' first three games as they beat Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State at home. It has been uncommon to find this program laying more than a TD on the road the last several seasons.

Washington was actually favored to beat the Ducks last year. But they lost outright, 26-20 as three-point chalk. That would be the lone time in the last dozen years that they haven't lost to them by 17 or more points. Earlier, I mentioned Oregon being perfect ATS as a dog the L3 seasons. They did cover by one-half point at Nebraska earlier this year, a game they finished w/ the edge in total yards (479-430) and led at halftime. They gave up the GW TD in the final 2:30. A non-existent defense has killed them the L2 weeks, but the offense has scored at least 32 pts in every game this year and this will be the first time they are a home dog since 2009, the first year under HC Chip Kelly. 8* Oregon

8* Rutgers (7:00 ET): Laying this many points, on the road, in a conference game is pretty rarefied air. It obviously has a lot to do w/ the Michigan pedigree, but also b/c Rutgers is off a humiliating loss LW at Ohio State, 58-0 where they were outgained 669-116! Just burn the tape of that one, though. It was a terrible situation for the Scarlet Knights, who were on the road and playing a rested foe (OSU was off a bye). Rutgers has also just played Iowa really tough the week prior, losing just 14-7 here at home (easily covered 15-pt spread). Michigan will be their THIRD top six opponent in the first six games, but the Scarlet Knights are getting more points at home this week, then they were at Washington in the season opener. Take the points.

Michigan was part of my successful teaser package last week (also had the Under in their game vs. Wisconsin). It's a good thing I teased them though as they were never covering the full game spread (11.5 points), needing a late TD just to pull out the SU victory. (Note: The Under was never in doubt). The win leaves puts the Wolverines at 5-0 SU and it's almost a given they'll be 7-0 when they head to East Lansing to face Michigan State on October 29th. But last week's victory did not come w/o a cost. Starting LT Grant Newsome is now out for the year w/ a serious knee injury. Another issue for Jim Harbaugh is the kicking game. Part of the reason that LW's game vs. Wisconsin stayed so close (despite a 349-159 edge in total yds) is that Wolverines kickers missed three field goals! 

Obviously, Rutgers won't score much here and has the most miniscule chance of winning. So, I'm counting on a defense that has been mostly solid to keep them in this one. Again, the last home game saw the Scarlet Knight hold Iowa (LY's Big 10 West Champs) to just 14 points. It was a 7-0 game going into the fourth quarter and Rutgers finished w/ the edge in both total yards and first downs for the game. Pre-Harbaugh, Michigan actually lost here in New Brunswick back in 2014. Last year was a 49-16 win in the Big House, but they were only 24-point favorites there. Rutgers is a better team this year and finds itself taking more points at home. 8* Rutgers

10* USC (4:00 ET): A classic set up here. We have the unranked team favored. Colorado, yes Colorado, finds itself in the Top 25 (#21) following a 47-6 dismantling of Oregon State last week in Boulder. That win and cover kept the Buffs perfect ATS (5-0) as their lone SU loss was at the hands of Michigan, 45-28 at the Big House (were getting 18 pts there). They've come back from that to open Pac 12 play at 2-0 SU with wins over both Oregon schools. But it appears as if the linesmakers aren't buying it, nor am I. USC had a rough start to the season, drawing Alabama and Stanford (both away from home) in the first three weeks. A narrow loss at Utah had their stock real low, but then the sharps loved them LW at home vs. Arizona State and they delivered w/ a 41-20 win and cover as eight-point chalk. Lay the points.

In Mike MacIntyre's first three years here, Colorado was just 2-25 SU in Pac 12 play, so this is quite the turnaround he's engineered here in Boulder. But save for Michigan, this will be the toughest test yet. They are 0-10 SU all-time vs. the Trojans w/ the average margin of defeat coming by 23 points per game. They were close last year, losing 26-23 (+18), but that was at Folsom Field. USC has proven to be a much tougher "out" here at the Coliseum where they are 2-0 SU this year w/ the two wins coming by 21 and 38 points. USC also "should have" beaten Utah two weeks ago as they led the majority of the way in Salt Lake City and had a 466-456 edge in total yards.

I don't have the "lookahead line" available for this matchup, but I can't imagine that USC would have been considered this tenuous a favorite over the summer. A key in handicapping this matchup is looking at the QB position. Colorado has a bit of a mini-controversy on its hands as Steven Montez has come in and played well in place of the injured Sefo Liufau. MacIntyre not only must deal with managing that situation, but the expectations that come with being a ranked team. Simply put, if Colorado football was a stock, I'd be looking to "sell high" right now. USC seems to have settled on its QB w/ Sam Darnold, who threw for 352 yds last week. The Trojans are 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS the L3 seasons as a fave of 3.5 to 10 pts and 12-3 SU/10-5 ATS at home. 10* USC

8* Navy (3:00 ET): I don't think I'm alone in saying that 2016 figured to be a 'down year' in Annapolis. The Midshipmen returned just ONE starter on the offensive side of the ball. Four year-starting QB Keenan Reynolds, the program's best player since Roger Staubach, left big shoes to fill and things look very ominous when new starter Tago Smith went down w/ a season-ending injury. But Will Worth has come in and righted the ship, so to speak. Yes, the Middies lost at Air Force LW, 28-14 as seven-point pups. But, historically, they have been a very good play as an underdog. We're talking 89-55 ATS in that role since 1992! This is a big revenge game for the service academy, who lost a de facto AAC West Title Game LY at Houston (as three-point favorites!), 51-32. I'm taking the points.

Houston has no issues at QB as Greg Ward, Jr leads a team w/ legit playoff aspirations. The Cougars announced their presence on the national scene last year w/ a 13-1 SU campaign where the lone loss (at UConn) came w/ Ward out of the starting lineup. They won their bowl game over Florida State and opened this year w/ a win over Oklahoma. Last week, they avenged said loss to UConn w/ a 42-14 win, but got backdoored late. I had the Huskies, thank you very much ;).  It should be pointed out that the Cougars did struggle some in their first "true" road game of 2016, trailing Cincinnati outright going into the fourth quarter. Yes, this team is now 10-1 ATS its L11 road games, including 7-1 when favored. But, with the profile raised, they are starting to carry a much heavier price tag. The only teams they've previously had to lay more than two touchdowns to on the road are Tulane, UCF and Texas State, all of whom would be classified as very bad teams at the time of kickoff.

The biggest shocker from LW's loss to Air Force is that Navy ran for only 57 yards on 38 carries! There were only three games all of last season where they failed to gain at least 270 over land. But, on the flip side, QB Worth did complete 17 of 31 pass attempts for 260 yards. He has five rushing touchdowns thus far and overall the offense does still rank in the top 15 nationally in rush offense. The Middies have also won 12 straight here in Annapolis, so they will be a tough out. 8* Navy

8* Eastern Michigan (3:00 ET): This MAC West "rivalry" has been quite one-sided w/ Toledo winning 15 of 16 all-time matchups including nine straight. Eastern Michigan has not covered since 2012 when they lost by only five (52-47 as 14-pt pups) here in Ypsilanti. Since then, it's been three consecutive losses by an average of 39.3 PPG. The last two have come with Chris Creighton at the helm, but this is w/o question his best team during that time. The Eagles won just seven games - total - over the last four years, but are well on their way to matching that number here in 2016. They enter this game 4-1 SU and ATS and have already pulled off an outright dog win here at Rynearson Stadium, beating Wyoming two week ago. I'm taking the points here.

After their upset of Wyoming, EMU found themselves in the unusual role of road favorite LW vs. Bowling Green. That was a role no Eagles team had found itself in the L10 seasons! They won 28-25, their second straight win by a field goal, taking the lead for good after TD midway through the third quarter. This offense has now rolled up nearly 1,000 total yards in the L2 games (500 vs. Wyoming, 484 vs. Bowling Green). The defense has allowed 25 pts or less in the four wins. Obviously, they and the team were a bit exposed in a 61-21 loss at Missouri. But that was in Columbia and I don't put much stock into that result. Yes, three of the Eagles four wins have come against either FCS competition (Miss Valley St) or the two worst FBS teams (BG, Charlotte). But, trust me when I say this is a much improved team in 2016.

Toledo is 4-0 ATS this year. But the Rockets come off their 1st loss of the campaign and a tough one at that. They fell 55-53 at BYU. After taking the lead w/ a late TD + 2pt conversion (w/ 1:11 to go), the defense allowed BYU to move down the field, setting up a GW 19-yard field goal. That will be a tough one to get over. Next week is the real rivalry game for the Rockets (at home vs. Bowling Green) and their three wins can certainly be called into question as well. Arkansas State was winless before Wednesday. Maine is a FCS squad. Fresno State is not good. I don't think for a second that UT could lose here, but I can't see them covering this massive spread. 8* Eastern Michigan

10* Penn State (12:00 ET): There's been a change in favorite for this Big 10 matchup, I assume due to the fact Maryland is a somewhat surprising 4-0 straight up. But is it really that surprising to see the Terps still unbeaten? They have been a double digit favorite in every game to this point, including last week when they were off a bye and clobbered Purdue 50-7 in College Park. Meanwhile, there's not much "happiness" in the valley at State College w/ bettors and fans alike seemingly selling James Franklin stock. An 0-4-1 ATS record seems to indicate Penn State is falling short of expectations, but both SU losses came as road dogs, one to Michigan. I look for the Nittany Lions to surprise here and end Maryland's unbeaten run. Take the points. 

The one comfortable win that PSU earned this year came in the opener, 33-13 over Kent State. Since then, it's been all close games save for the one at The Big House. It was a back and forth affair against in-state rival Pitt, on the road, in Week 2. Four turnovers were the primary culprit in that loss as the actually had one more first down (20-19) than Pitt in the contest. I actually faded the Nittany Lions the following week when hosting Temple. But that was a fortunate cover on my end. They outgained the Owls 403-324, but got "backdoored" thanks to a pair of late turnovers that led to Temple scoring drives that started inside the PSU 10-yd line. It was a late Temple field goal that resulted in the cash changing hands. Obviously, the Michigan game was a disaster, but they were missing three linebackers there. Last week's game vs. Minnesota went to overtime, this time seeing Penn State perhaps be a little fortunate. But I'll call for a little "carryover" here against an opponent they should be favored against.

Maryland has already exceeded LY's win total. 1st year HC DJ Durkin (former DC at Michigan) has come in and made an impact, but the competition so far has been relatively weak. Howard is a FCS school. Florida International is one of the worst teams in the country. UCF didn't win a single game last year and that was a six-point game (on the road). As mentioned above, the team was coming off a bye LW hosting Purdue. (The Boilermakers were also off a tough win the wk prior vs. Nevada). The Terps have yet to cover B2B conference games since joining the Big 10. They won't pass for much (just 223 yds TOTAL L2 games) and the L2 meetings w/ PSU have each been decided by one point (each team has won once). I look for Franklin to cover for the first time against Maryland in what has turned into a pretty important conference game. 10* Penn State

8* Chi Cubs (9:15 ET): Because of high, game by game prices, I didn't get to play the Cubs as often as I would have liked during the regular season. They are, without question, the best team in baseball. Not only did they blow away the field in terms of run differential (+252), that number suggests that they actually underperformed in terms of wins. That's scary considering that they won 103 games, but the run diff suggest they played at the level of a 109-win team! Were it not for the tired narrative of "it's the Cubs," no one would even be questioning this team's position as the overwhelming favorite coming into the postseason. Unlike the NBA's Golden State Warriors, this team "should" have had an even better regular season record. Thus, I have no problem grabbing them at this price.

San Francisco was your NL Wild Card Winner as they beat the Mets 3-0 on Wednesday. I had the Under, so it was an easy winner for me as well. Because it's an "even year," some will tout the Giants as having a chance here, but I simply cannot back them at Wrigley Field. They won Tuesday not because it was 2016, but because of another phenomenal postseason showing from Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner will not start again until Game 3 of this series and by then, the damage may already have been done. Johnny Cueto is a fine pitcher in his own right, but his last loss came against these Cubs, here at Wrigley Field, back on September 4th. Recent postseason experience has not been good for Cueto. Since his meltdown in the 2013 Wild Card Game at Pittsburgh (was w/ Cincinnati at the time), he's allowed 19 runs and 25 hits in just 28 1/3 IP. That's five starts.

Remember that the Giants' offense failed to score a single run until the top of the ninth on Wednesday. That's not a good sign when getting set to enter Wrigley where opposing teams averaged just 3.0 rpg this year, the lowest average in all of MLB. The Cubs gave up - by far - the fewest number of runs in baseball during the regular season. Starting Game 1 will be Jon Lester, who has a 1.74 ERA and 0.89 WHIP here at the Friendly Confines to go along w/ a 13-2 TSR. While Lester did allow 5 ER (at Cincinnati) in his final reg season start, he had allowed 1 or 0 ER in each of his previous eight turns.  8* Chi Cubs

THIS PLAY IS AN ERROR. INTENDED TO BE THE UNDER!

10* Under Boise State/New Mexico (9:00 ET): The big thing here is the revenge angle as LY saw New Mexico stun Boise 31-24 as 30-point underdogs on the blue turf. That puts Lobos HC Bob Davie at 4-0 ATS all-time against the Broncos, including a pair of close games here in Albuquerque. I don't doubt for a second that BSU will highly motivated to erase the memory of LY's embarrassing setback. But, clearly, I'm not alone in that line of thinking and as a result we probably have an inflated line that I have no interest in playing. Instead, where I feel the true value lies in this game is w/ total. New Mexico is one of only a handful of teams left in the country to have gone Over in every single game so far, but this figures to be their highest total yet. Take the Under. 

Helping to drive this O/U line up is that New Mexico is coming off a wild 48-41 win over San Jose State. That game saw well over 900 total yards and for UNM 90% of theirs (446 of 491) come on the ground (more on this in a bit). It was the second time this season that the Lobos scored 48 pts in a game, but the first carries little weight as it was at the expense of FCS South Dakota. In between, they went on the road and scored 31 and 28 pts in a pair of road games against New Mexico State (won, but did not cover) and Rutgers (lost and failed to cover). So, clearly Davie's defense needs some help. Despite beating Boise LY, the Lobos did surrender 641 total yards and 40 first downs in that game! Note though that coming into this year, UNM was on an 11-6 Under run when in the underdog role. The total for last year's game was nearly a full TD lower. It was just a 14-3 game at the half.

Earlier in the analysis, I mentioned the New Mexico run game. It is the bread and butter of the offense as they don't pass all that often (just eight attempts LW). Well, unfortunately for them, Boise State's defense has proven to be quite stingy against the run so far. Despite losing their entire starting D-line from LY, this group is giving up an average of just 72 YPG rushing (on 2.4 YPC) through four games. In last week's 21-10 win over Utah State, they allowed just 71 on 25 carries. The only offense to really give the Broncos any trouble so far was pass-happy Washington State, who is basically the exact opposite of New Mexico. BSU is 3-1 Under so far and the most combined pts scored in any of their games was 65. They're still unbeaten (4-0) w/ both road wins seeing them hold their opponents under 300 total yards. 10* Under Boise State/New Mexico

8* Boston College (7:30 ET): This is a classic "trap spot" for unbeaten and third-ranked Clemson, who is on the road and just six days removed from a huge win (at home) over Louisville. While 9-1 SU as a road favorite the L3 seasons, the Tigers are just 3-7 against the spread in those same games. This is a much better BC team that they'll be facing here in Chesnut Hill compared to the one they beat 34-17 LY (as 17-pt favorites) in Death Valley. The Eagles have already matched their 2015 win total (3) and the key to this game will be their defense. Save for a one-week disaster at Virginia Tech (lost 49-0), they've allowed 17 pts or less in every other game. Not saying they'll be that stingy here, but that stop unit keeps them in this one until the finish here. Take the points.

Clemson has been very impressive the L3 weeks, so it's easy to forget that they did not look particularly good in either of the first two games. I faded them in the opener, on the road, against Auburn. The home opener against Troy saw them struggle far more than expected as they didn't even score enough points (30) to cover the spread (-34.5) in a narrow six-point victory. Little can be derived from the 59-0 result over South Carolina State other than that's where Dabo Swinney's team seems to have turned the corner. They dominated Georgia Tech on a Thursday night, 26-7 w/ 442-124 edge in total yards. Then last week came the wild win over Louisville. Note though that they needed a stop inside their own 10-yd line to preserve that 42-36 victory and did turn the ball over five times.The defense gave up nearly 600 total yards (568 to be exact). It's absolutely fair to question what they'll have left in the tank here.

Meanwhile, BC had little difficulty beating Buffalo here at home LW. In the last two games, this Eagles defense has allowed 174 yards - TOTAL! They held Buffalo UNDER 100 (67 to be exact) for the game! Had they not given up a late TD vs. Georgia Tech (in Ireland), this team would be 4-1 SU. Buffalo had just 25 first half yards and five first downs for the game! Most encouraging of all though is Eagles QB Patrick Towles had perhaps his best game w/ 234 yards and two touchdowns. Clemson has not been particularly strong in the second half this year, the last two games in particular, so the backdoor could always be open. 8* Boston College

8* Cleveland (4:35 ET): Turns out that I didn't even need the +1.5 last night as the Indians won Game 1, as underdogs, 5-4 over the Red Sox. Manager Terry Francona leaned heavily on two relievers - Andrew Miller and Cody Allen - to get that big win, so one would presume starter Corey Kluber is going to have to carry the load w/ the quick turnaround this afternoon. I feel that the former Cy Young winner will be up to that challenge. As far as the vaunted Boston offense goes, remember what I talked about in yday's analysis. Cleveland ranks third in all of MLB in runs per game scored at home (5.8), which is a big reason that they're now 54-28 here this season. With Kluber on the hill, the Tribe are being drastically undervalued at Progressive Field for Game 2.

This Indians offense was able to get to 20-game winner Rick Porcello last night (hit 3 HR's off him in one inning), so I don't really fear David Price in this spot. Besides, Price has generally been awful in the postseason and that is putting it mildly. In eight career playoff starts, he's 0-7 w/ a 5.27 ERA. Like the team, Price somewhat sputtered at the end of the regular season as well. His last road start saw him give up six runs and 12 hits to a far less potent lineup - the Yankees. He did allow only one run and four hits at home to Toronto on Sunday, but the Red Sox still lost that game, costing them homefield advantage in this series. I realize that Boston is 9-1 this season off three consecutive losses. But this is a very good team that they're facing. Price's ERA was only 3.99 during the regular season. This is one of those rare times when Boston is NOT the better offensive team in the matchup.

Kluber has not pitched since 9.26 due to a groin issue, so he should be fresh. As I've pointed out many times throughout the year, Kluber's WHIP this season (1.060) is actually lower than it was in 2014 when he took home the Cy Young. When he's taken the mound at home this year, the team is 11-5. It's a real "T.G.I.F." situation in Cleveland as the Tribe is 21-5 in Friday games this season! Kluber faced Boston twice in the regular season, winning once and losing once. Remember that he has an outstanding defense to back him up. Catcher Roberto Perez turned in an awesome game behind the plate last night.  8* Cleveland

8* Over Cardinals/49ers (8:25 ET): There's some question as to whom will be quarterbacking for Arizona here, Carson Palmer (concussion) or Drew Stanton. Regardless, I expect them to score points here against a 49ers defense that has given up an average of nearly 36 points per game the L3 weeks and just lost its best player (Navarro Bowman) for the remainder of the season. It has been a shockingly poor start this year for the Cards, who already have as many losses (3) as they did at the end of the regular season last year. They've scored just 31 points the L2 games, B2B losses to the Bills and Rams. But this has the makings of a "get well" situation. It's also a really low total, likely Arizona's lowest of the season. Provided they don't turn the ball over like they have the L2 weeks (10 TO's!), they should score plenty of points. They did roll up 420 yds LW against a much better defense (Rams) than they'll see here.

Last year, the 49ers pulled out a surprise Week 1 win in the late game of the MNF doubleheader (beat Vikings). Things quickly went south though as they finished 5-11 SU (and the record probably should have been worse). This year, they again won the late Monday nighter (28-0 shutout of the Rams), but the pattern has been similar w/ three consecutive losses. They've scored only 35 total points the L2 games, but one of those was against Seattle and it's top flight defense. Obviously, Blaine Gabbert won't scare anybody as the team ranks 32nd (last!) in the league in passing. But RB Carlos Hyde is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns w/ four. I still trust Chip Kelly, in his 1st year here, to get the offense going.

Arizona has a running back, David Johnson, who leads the league in total yards from scrimmage. So, if Stanton does start, expect the offense to go through Johnson. Three of the last four times these teams have played, the Under has cashed w/ the lone exception being LY's home win by the Cardinals where they put up 47 points themselves. But I could see this game ending up like my successful Over play from Sunday night (Chiefs-Steelers) where one team handles the bulk of the scoring. This total is just too low. 8* Over Cardinals/49ers

10* Run Line Cleveland (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a RL play only where I am taking the Indians +1.5. This would seem to be an ideal matchup for Boston. Despite being the lower seed, they are the favorite due to Cleveland's starting rotation being in shambles (no Danny Salazar, no Carlos Carrasco). That leaves Trevor Bauer to be the Game 1 starter for the home side here. But despite the fact that the Tribe seems "up against it" in this series, I think they are a tremendous value here at home, particularly only having to lay a short price to get the additional 1.5 runs. This team was 53-28 here at Progressive Field during the regular season. Seven of those losses (25%) were by one run. Go w/ the run line here.

Boston led the league in offense during the regular season (878 runs), but this is the playoffs when runs tend to be at a premium. They didn't exactly close the regular season strong at the plate w/ just a .204 average the L7 games while scoring 2.9 rpg. That's a good sign for Bauer, who has an 11-5 team start record here at home (solid 1.259 WHIP). Bauer didn't fare that well in his lone start vs. the Red Sox this year (gave up 4 ER in 5 IP), but that was at Fenway Park and all the way back in May. Bauer's last start, in Kansas City on October 1st, went well as he allowed only three runs in six innings of work. He also finished w/ nine strikeouts, his most in a start since 8.19. The Indians did sweep their final series of the regular season, at Kansas City, so they come in w/ "momentum" (hate that word!).

Another key here is that Cleveland's offense is significantly better at home than on the road. Here at Progressive Field, they average a strong 5.6 rpg (.287 team batting average). Only the Red Sox and Rockies (of course) averaged more runs per game at home than did the Indians. So the surprising Rick Porcello, a 22-game winner, best beware. The Indians' lineup is almost all lefties and switch-hitters. Porcello's 2016 renaissance was downright shocking and I'm not sure I buy him here in October, a month where the Red Sox have not won a game in three years. They are also just 2-7 here in Cleveland since the start of the 2014 regular season. Cleveland has the better bullpen and defense, which could prove to be more beneficial than Boston's offense here.  10* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

10* Under Western Kentucky/La Tech (8:00 ET): This total is going up, up and up, thus we've got a situation where there's value in going the other way. Western Kentucky, despite four straight non-covers, comes in as the road favorite. Last week's ATS loss was a little "unfair" though; they were 52-pt favorites against FCS school Houston Baptist in a 50-3 win. The Hilltoppers have also had to play Alabama (lost 38-10 in Tuscaloosa) and speaking of the SEC, they were favored (by 8.5!) to beat Vandy (lost 31-30 despite 496-389 edge in total yards). A Week 3 road win at Miami (OH) saw them laying 18.5 and they prevailed there, but only by a score of 31-24. Really, you'd have to go back to Wk 1 and a 46-14 home triumph over Rice (were -19.5) to find WKU's "best" performance of the year.

Louisiana Tech is off a blowout win themselves, 28-7 over UTEP. They were 22.5-pt favorites in that contest, so they failed to cover. They were also outgained 415-387. It was actually a 14-7 game early in the fourth quarter, at home, and key for the Bulldogs was winning the TO margin by two. Still, it was a refreshing performance from the LA Tech defense after B2B losses (on the road) to Texas Tech and Middle Tennessee where they gave up nearly 100 total points. Like WKU, La Tech's best offensive performance of the year (53 pts) came against a FCS foe (S Carolina St). Also like WKU, they have suffered a one-point loss to an SEC opponent, in their case Arkansas, who got them in the opener, 21-20.

These teams played early last season and it was a 41-38 home win for WKU (as a 1-pt dog) in Bowling Green (I had WKU!). The year prior, La Tech won at home, 59-10 as seven-point chalk. So we're used to seeing a high scoring affair from these two relatively new conference rivals. But a big difference between this year and last is both squads lost quality starting QB's to graduation, Brandon Doughty for WKU (school's all-time passing leader) and Jeff Driskel for La Tech. Thus, I do not believe either to be as explosive as they were in 2015. The Hilltoppers are 4-1 Under this season already and this total is likely to close as their highest of the season to date. With the two teams combining to allow only 10 total points last week, I like the Under. 10* Under Western Kentucky/La Tech

10* Arkansas State (8:00 ET): The Red Wolves come into their conference (Sun Belt) opener as one of only five teams in the entire country that has yet to cover a single pointspread this season. They are also 0-4 SU having opened w/ Toledo (were actually favored in that one) and Auburn. The last 2 weeks have been especially frustrating as they've outgained both opponents only to come up short on the scoreboard. On both occasions, turnovers doomed them. They've given the ball away seven times and taken it away only once. Last time out was the most frustrating result of all as they lost to a FCS school (Central Arkansas) despite 469-382 edge in total yards (were -4 in TO's). But now the market has moved against them, quite severely in fact, and there's a ton of value in grabbing the points here in Jonesboro.

Georgia Southern is also off a loss where it lost the TO battle 4-0. They fell to a very good Western Michigan squad, 49-31, but were outgained 407-370. It was their first SU loss of the season, but they'd opened w/ a much lighter slate than Arkansas State. The Eagles are in the midst of a brutal scheduling stretch as this is the second of what will be four consecutive road games. Next week, they're at Georgia Tech and that's a matchup they might be "peeking ahead" to. This is the team's first year under Tyson Summers as previous HC Willie Fritz departed to Tulane. The triple-option offense remains the same, but it's been a little less effective so far under Summers. They're down about 1.5 YPC from 2015. The ASU defense should benefit from the extra time to prepare. The strength of the Red Wolves is their front seven.

Georgia Southern joined the SBC in 2014. Interestingly, they have yet to play Arkansas State. These are the last two conference champions with each turning in an unbeaten campaign. Last year was ASU's turn, so this fall to 0-4 is pretty stunning. But considering a 20-4 SU mark in SBC home games, this shapes up to be a pretty incredible price. Two of those four home conference losses came to Western Kentucky, who is no longer even in the Sun Belt. ASU has been a home dog just one time in the last two years and that was last season vs. Missouri, a game they covered (lost by a touchdown). I love this value. 10* Arkansas State

10* Under Giants/Mets (8:05 ET): The Over went 6-1 in the seven regular season meetings between these two teams. It was the last one that stayed Under with Noah Syndergaard, the starter here for New York, on the hill. Syndergaard wasn't nearly as effective when faced off w/ Madison Bumgarner back in May, giving up four runs in just 5 2/3 innings. That turned into an eventual 6-1 Mets' loss. But with these two facing off again, I just can't see many runs being scored as the stakes are so high. Something to consider is that Citi Field - on average - was one of only five parks to see less than 8.0 rpg scored during the regular season. That's higher than the total here, but again, you have to factor in the two starters. There were only two parks - Wrigley Field & Dodger Stadium - where visiting teams scored fewer runs per game than here at Citi Field (3.7 rpg). The Mets' offense ranked just 25th in runs scored for the year, the Giants were 19th (25th in slugging). Take the Under.

Seven times in his career, Bumgarner has started a playoff road game. His TSR is 7-0! So, I don't dare fade him in this spot, especially considering the 0.60 ERA is by far and away the best ever in MLB history when starting away from home in the postseason. Some may want to write 2016 off as a bit of a "down year" for Bumgarner considering a 15-9 record in 34 starts (20-14 TSR). But he posted a 2.78 ERA and 1.024 WHIP and finished strong w/ a 0.935 WHIP his L7 starts and a 0.738 WHIP his L3. The news just keeps getting worse for the Mets too. In six career starts, Bumgarner has NEVER lost to them and has a 1.80 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. That not only includes the six scoreless innings he tossed opposite Syndergaard here back in May, but also a CG shutout in 2014. So, the big lefty is working on a 15-inning scoreless streak here at Citi Field.

Syndergaard may not have pitched all that well against Bumgarner back in May, but he came back and threw eight scoreless innings against the Giants in August, allowing only two hits. He posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.121 WHIP here at home during the regular season (16 starts). In his last seven starts overall, he allowed 2 ER or less six times (2.06 ERA, 0.985 WHIP). He closed his regular season by allowing just one run and five hits in six innings against the Marlins. That game only went Over b/c the Mets managed to score 12 runs, something that will not be happening here. The Mets stayed Under in all four games since. The bar is low, but these two starters will be up to the task in what I anticipate will be a tremendous pitcher's duel. 10* Under Giants/Mets

10* Toronto (8:00 ET): Baltimore will go w/ Chris Tillman in tonight's Wild Card matchup and that makes sense. The team went 22-8 in his 30 regular season starts, but just 67-65 in all other games. He finished +14.7 units, which was top five among all starting pitchers. Tillman also posted a 4-0 TSR vs. Toronto this year. But his ERA in those four outings was a pretty pedestrian 3.63. He never lasted more than six innings in any of the four starts. That's pretty indicative of overall results for him as he won far more than he should have given the numbers. While no manager does a better job of juggling the bullpen that Buck Showalter, I think there's some real concern with Tillman's health (shoulder issue) as he was certainly less effective down the stretch (5.03 ERA, 1.529 WHIP L7 starts) due in large part to declined velocity on his fastball. Having a negative KW ratio in three of your last five outings is never a good sign, but it could really cost Tillman here facing a lineup that is excellent at drawing walks. This year aside, his career numbers vs. Toronto aren't good (5-10, 5.44 ERA), including a 2-7 WL record here at Rogers Center w/ an unsightly 7.01 ERA. In four starts LY vs. the Jays, he was 0-4 w/ a 11.72 ERA.

Toronto counters w/ Marcus Stroman, who is a far better ground ball pitcher than Tillman. Assuming Stroman can continue to keep the ball down tonight, that's a much-needed trait to possess when facing the Orioles, who tend to "live off" the home run. Note that Stroman led all of MLB in ground ball percentage during the regular season and was 20 points higher than Tillman in that department. Given the respective lineups here, that's a massive edge for Stroman, whose won-loss record may not match his counterpart but the numbers are essentially the same (WHIPs are basically identical). Yes, Stroman failed to beat the Orioles in three tries during the regular season, but he pitched well enough to get the victory every time. While winless in September, that was owed to the offense getting shut out THREE times when he was on the mound. I don't see that happening here. Over his L13 starts, Stroman's ERA is 3.24 and he's given up only seven home runs in 83 1/3 IP.

Toronto won the regular season series, barely, going 10-9 head to head. That includes a 6-4 mark here at Rogers Centre. While homefield advantage has meant very little in year's past in these Wild Card matchups, I think it will here. Baltimore is the ONLY AL playoff team to have posted a losing road record during the regular season. Something else to consider is that Toronto posted a far better run differential (+93 to +29), so the fact the teams finished the regular season w/ identical records is a bit misleading. The price is absolutely justified on the Jays here and they are 17-9 as a ML home favorite in the -125 to -150 range. 10* Toronto

10* NY Giants (8:30 ET): After Sunday, there are just three undefeated teams left: Denver, Philadelphia ... and Minnesota. Those three teams are also a combined 10-0 ATS. The Vikings are in action Monday, hosting a Giants team that has sought to "reverse the math" from the previous campaign. Whereas last season saw the team go just 3-8 SU in one-score games, they opened 2016 w/ a pair of narrow wins over the Cowboys and Saints. But then last week, the G-Men lost at home, 29-27 to the Redskins. With the NFC East better than advertised so far, they cannot afford to drop another game. Believe it or not, but Minnesota is an insane 17-3 ATS since the start of last season. I have to believe that record will begin to regress. Take the points.

Remember that Minnesota is w/o both QB Teddy Bridgewater and RB Adrian Peterson. Sam Bradford has done noble work as the starter the L2 weeks (helped immensely by emerging WR Stefon Diggs), but I have no reason to believe that will continue. Bradford's entire career has been plagued by inconsistencies. These L2 weeks have seen the Vikings win outright as underdogs. First, it was over Green Bay (+1.5) here at home, 17-14. Then, last week they went to Carolina and prevailed 22-10 despite being outgained 306-211. That's hardly impressive offensive production. In three games, the Vikings offense has scored a grand total of three touchdowns. The defense/special teams has just as many, plus a safety last week for "good measure." This is simply an unsustainable model for success. Through three games, they have the fewest rushing yards (153) EVER for a 3-0 team!

The Giants' offense has started surprisingly slow (21.0 PPG). But I do not anticipate that lasting. QB Eli Manning has a receiving corps as talented as any in the league: Odell Beckham, Jr, Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard. The defense has been a major surprise though, in a positive manner. While not as good as the Vikings, they're still allowing only 20.3 PPG. Note that this is the first time the G-Men are getting more than a point from the oddsmakers this season, so there's value there. I also believe playing indoors won't affect them as much as the road team. Studies have shown that NFL teams typically see a minor loss in homefield advantage the first two years of a new stadium. 10* NY Giants

10* Over Chiefs/Steelers (8:25 ET): Both of these teams failed to impress on offense last week. Pittsburgh was held w/o a touchdown in a shocking blowout loss at Philadelphia. Kansas City's result (24-3 win over Jets) needs to be taken w/ a grain of salt as it was greatly aided by eight forced turnovers! (Keep in mind the Chiefs were #2 in TO margin LY; a market correction is overdue here). Though the last four Chiefs-Steelers matchups (all since 2011) have all stayed Under the total, I see both offenses bouncing back this week, leading to a game that will be higher scoring than expected. Needless to say, I don't think anybody, myself included, expected to see the Steelers averaging only 21.7 points per game through three weeks. Take the Over.

Of course, last week negatively skews all Pittsburgh offensive statistics. The first two games saw them average 31.0 PPG in wins over Washington and Cincinnati, both division winners from a year ago. Now, an offense already loaded with top notch skill position players gets RB LeVeon Bell back. In case you forgot, Bell (suspended first three games) is as good as any running back in this league. Kansas City allows 123 rushing YPG. Of course, Pittsburgh also happens to have the top WR in the league as well, Antonio Brown. They will be facing a very banged up Chiefs' defense that continues to be w/o Justin Houston (PUP list), Tamba Hali and now possibly both starting corners. Neither Marcus Peters nor Phillip Gaines practiced two days ago. Gaines is the one less likely to play. 

Kansas City runs a similar offense to Philadelphia. That's bad news for the (not) Steel Curtain, which has allowed 300+ yds passing in every game so far. This is a young secondary that did not look good LW vs. the Eagles. Even running backs seem to be exploiting the Steelers' suspect pass coverage. They have allowed 100+ yds receiving to Gio Bernard and Darren Sproles the L2 wks. The Kansas City running game, which averages 4.2 yards per carry, should find success here as well. Jamaal Charles may play here. So both offenses should be able to move the ball here. Pittsburgh, usually a strong bet at home and in primetime, has seen the Over cash six of the last seven times they've been a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 pts. 10* Over Chiefs/Steelers

10* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): I look at this line and here's what I think. The books are essentially "inviting" a slew of public money. I will not take the bait. It sure makes sense as to why the Broncos shape up as the most public side of Week 4. The defending Super Bowl Champs come in at 3-0 SU and off an outright win, on the road, over a good Cincinnati team. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is off B2B bad losses, the last one coming here at home, to the LA Rams. But winning B2B road games in this league is hard to do as is failing to cover two straight at home. Tampa Bay was a much better team last year than it's 6-10 SU record. They actually finished third offensively in yards per play (5.9) and eighth defensively (5.2). It's more of the same in 2016 as they're outgaining opponents despite a 1-2 SU record. Home dogs are 7-4-3 ATS so far. Take the points.

Last week saw the Bucs outgain the Rams 472-320 w/ a 30-18 first down edge! Yet, they still lost straight up as 3.5-pt favorites. Needless to say, you won't find a SU loser from the Week 3 slate that had a bigger advantage in total yardage. It was a game the Bucs led 20-10 in the second quarter. There was a long lightning delay that interrupted the game. Week 2, while a blowout loss, did see them lose the turnover battle by five, essentially guaranteeing defeat. They have not been a home dog since Week 9 of last season. Too many times in the last few years this team has lost a close game. Meanwhile, Denver has enjoyed incredible success in such affairs, going 12-3 SU in games decided by seven points or less since the start of last season. It's "high time" that TB won one of these games.

Broncos QB Trevor Siemian had a breakout game LW in Cincinnati, throwing for 300+ yards and four touchdowns. I just can't see him duplicating those numbers here. It should be pointed out that Denver has trailed in the fourth quarter in two of its games. The other, a 34-20 win over Indianapolis, saw them score two defensive touchdowns. So, they're pretty fortunate to be 3-0. A 5-0 ATS win streak that dates back to LY's Super Bowl run is tied for the longest active in NFL. It's due to end. This line reminds me of the Arizona-Buffalo matchup last week where I cashed the home dog. 10* Tampa Bay.

10* Under Padres/D'backs (3:10 ET): Multiple games on Sunday's MLB slate will help define the playoffs. This ain't one of 'em. Instead, we'll play to decide who finishes in last place in the division. NL West also-rans San Diego and Arizona are tied (68-93) and will close out very forgettable seasons here at Chase Field, home of - on average - the second highest scoring games in all of baseball, trailing only perennial leader Coors Field. Sadly for the host D'backs, they give up 6.3 rpg here where they are a lousy 32-48 (-22.0 units). The Over is an incredible 51-27-2 in Arizona home games this season after yday's 9-5 win over the Padres. But I'll call for an uncharacteristic end to this lost campaign and say that game #162 will be lower scoring than expected. Take the Under. 

Like I said, it's not often that Arizona wins here at Chase Field. But six steals and three Padres errors certainly aided their cause Saturday. But offense hasn't really been the issue for the D'backs this season. Rather, they enter the season's final day having given up the most runs in all of baseball. (Depending what happens today, Minnesota could win up w/ that dubious distinction). Remember when Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller were supposed to turn around this pitching staff? Oops! It should be said that starter Archie Bradley pitched very well last night, striking out 11. San Diego scored three of its runs late (8th inning) when the game was basically already decided. Today, it will be Matt Koch toeing the rubber. His one and only start thus far went well as he allowed just two runs (on one hit) in 5 IP. The game, a 4-2 loss to Washington, stayed Under.

Going back to how Arizona was able to generate its runs yday, I don't believe we'll be seeing that again. Not just because San Diego isn't likely to be as sloppy, but also because they'll send Paul Clemens out to the hill. In his L3 starts, Clemens has a phenomenal 0.57 ERA and 0.702 WHIP. When he faced Arizona on 9.20, both runs he allowed were unearned and that game still stayed Under (5-2 SD win). He allowed only three runs when he faced the D'backs back in April. While the Over is 7-1 when San Diego plays at Arizona this year, the Under is 41-28 in all of their other road games. This total is too high. 10* Under Padres/D'backs

10* Chicago (1:00 ET): Following B2B "duds" in primetime (lost to Eagles on MNF & Cowboys on SNF), the Bears have clearly fallen out of favor w/ the public. But I think this is a good opportunity to buy low on a desperate 0-3 SU team. Yes, the Monsters of the Midway have the worst point differential in the league through three weeks. But I don't think they should be a home dog to the division rival Lions. Granted, the team is just 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS at Soldier Field since the start of last season, which is borderline unacceptable. They've also covered only one of their last eight games overall, going back to last season. Detroit is 6-0 SU the L3 years in this NFC North rivalry, but they are also a terrible 5-16 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2000 season. Take the points here.

This is more of a play against the Lions, than a play on the Bears. I had a similar mentality in Week 2 when I took the points w/ Tennessee and they went into the Motor City and took the game outright, 16-15. Last week was a "back door cover" (for some) against Green Bay after trailing 31-3 in the first half. It's looking pretty clear at this point that the team's only win so far, 39-35 at Indianapolis in Wk 1, was a byproduct of facing a bad & banged up defense. Again, I personally just wouldn't want to be laying points w/ this group, especially on the road. We know that their defense is going to be w/o two key contributors, again, here. Those would be DE Ezekial Ansah and LB DeAndre Levy. 

Chicago is w/o QB Jay Cutler and RB Jeremy Langford. But, so what? It's not as if they had proven to be difference makers to this point. Brian Hoyer is far from ideal as a starting QB in this league, but at least he has experience. Don't be surprised if we see a big game here from rookie RB Jordan Howard in this spot. I say that because the L2 weeks have seen the Lions defense surrender 262 yds rushing at a ghastly 5.46 yards per pop. But, let's go back to the home futility the Bears are facing here. Six straight home losses in this league is hard to do. In franchise history, they have never lost seven straight home games. Both games vs. Detroit LY were decided by four points or less. Even if the Bears only win a few games in 2016, this figures to be one of them. 10* Chicago

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): This is another of those division rivalries that has been totally one-sided in recent years. Houston has swept Tennessee each of the L2 years, both straight up and against the spread. All four games were decided by double digits. But, these young Titans are a bit improved so far in 2016 despite being 1-2 SU. On the defensive side of the ball is where the real improvement has come. Through three games, they're allowing an average of just 19 PPG. One of their losses (Minnesota in Wk 1) saw them not allow a single offensive touchdown. Since then, they've allowed just 16 and 17 points. Houston's defense, of course, has been severely weakened by the loss of JJ Watt (on IR) and their offense has simply not been very good so far. Take the points.

Very few defensive players have an effect on the pointspread. Watt is certainly one of them and I don't think there's been a big enough adjustment here. The Texans defense is the reason the team is 2-1 SU, but the loss of Watt looms large. Keep in mind they have NEVER been w/o Watt since he came into the league. Linebacker Brian Cushing hasn't played since the first series of the opener. He could be back here, but won't be 100% if he is. Meanwhile, as alluded to above, this Texans offense stinks. They were shut out LW in New England, gaining less than 300 total yards. Their season high in yardage gained thus far is only 351. Questions remain w/ Brock Osweiler. Averaging only 14 PPG is not something you want to see out of a favorite, particularly when facing a much improved defense.

In games that project to be low-scoring (like this one!), it's often a good idea to take the points. I realize Tennessee has not been one of the league's better bets the L2 years (5-13-1 ATS overall), but I look for that record to improve. The return of wide receiver Kendall Wright should help the offense. Turnovers (-5 margin through three weeks) are what has hurt this team more than anything else. The defense, facing what has been one of the worst offenses in the league, will keep them in the game throughout. For whatever reason, the Titans tend to play better on the road as was evident by when they went to Detroit in Week 2 and won outright (had 'em). 8* Tennessee

10* Under Browns/Redskins (1:00 ET): Cleveland treated me well last week. I didn't even need to watch overtime against Miami as I was getting 10 points, thus it was an automatic winner on my end. Sadly for the Browns, it wound up being another loss as they gave up a touchdown in the extra period to fall 30-24. This offense, quarterbacked by rookie third-stringer Cody Kessler, was actually only responsible for 17 pts last week and that was against a bad defense. The Browns' defense scored a TD on an INT return and that kind of production certainly cannot be counted on a week to week basis. Week 1 was only a 10-pt effort from the Cleveland offense and Week 2 was just two big plays and a drive set up by a turnover. The Browns won't score much here, but neither will the Redskins. Take the Under.

Washington got its first win of the year last week, coming from behind to beat the Giants 29-27. That too was a win for me as I took the points w/ the Skins. I'm not about to back them in this spot, however, as QB Kirk Cousins is 0-6 ATS as a favorite in his career w/ four outright losses. Five of those games have seen the offense score 23 pts or less, four have seen them held below 20. I still have my questions about Cousins despite the fact he ranks near the top of the league in passing yardage. The first two games saw Cousins and the 'Skins offense account for just 39 total points. Yet both games still went Over as did last week's win. Washington's last eight games, dating back to last year, have now all gone Over. That seems like a streak that's due to end, no? 

While in line with most Redskins totals for the year, this number figures to close as the highest for any Browns game to date. Again, Cody Kessler is this team's starting QB. He began the year as third string. This is an offense that had limited options to begin with. Now Josh Gordon, once their most dynamic playmaker, has been released (drugs). Rookie WR Corey Coleman broke his hand and is out several weeks as a result. I really see this team struggling to put points on the board moving forward as a result. Cleveland comes in averaging only 18.0 PPG while Washington is at 22.7. Add those numbers up and it's a TD less than the actual total here. 10* Under Browns/Redskins

8* Wyoming (10:15 ET): The annual "Border War" has not gone very well for the contingent from Laramie of late. The Pokes have lost three straight years to Colorado State, all by double digits. But the 2016 edition of Wyoming football still projects to be the strongest under Craig Bohl (HC since 2014). The team is much more experienced than last year (had just 7 seniors!) as they returned 17 starters. They have failed to cover three in a row, including an outright loss at Eastern Michigan LW (27-24, -6). That game wasn't decided until the final 90 seconds when EMU ran in a touchdown to take the lead. The Cowboys blew a 17-3 first half lead. Colorado State, off a close call LW at Minnesota, is getting a bit too much respect, IMO. Remember they were destroyed by Colorado (a 10* play on the Buffs for me), 44-7. Take the points.

Wyoming's season opened up in impressive fashion as they beat Northern Illinois, 40-34 as seven-point home underdogs. They followed that up w/ a 52-17 loss in Nebraska, but that final score wouldn't have been so bad had it not been for six turnovers. Note that was a 24-17 game heading into the fourth quarter, in Lincoln! While 2-0 SU at home and 0-2 SU on the road, this is a good price range for the Cowboys. Being favored LW was pretty rare, but CSU certainly isn't on the same plane as Nebraska. Again, this is a pretty experienced group Bohl has back. Junior RB Brian Hill is the go to guy on offense w/ 463 yards already on 97 carries, six of those for touchdowns.

CSU has already used three different quarterbacks in four games, which is not a great sign. Freshman Collin Hill has played relatively well the L2 wks, but I'm not sure if he should be trusted moving forward. The Rams have far less experience than the Cowboys (only 10 returning starters back from last year). Hill will face a talented Wyoming secondary, which already has five interceptions. Do not be surprised if the famed "Bronze Boot" goes to the road dog in this one. 8* Wyoming

10* Indiana (8:00 ET): Both teams are off outright losses as favorites last week. Michigan State lost, at home, to Wisconsin 30-6. The game wasn't nearly as lopsided as that score indicates, but it also should be pointed out that Sparty isn't nearly as strong as last year. All signs were pointing down for 2016 as last year's team was quite fortunate to finish 12-2 SU as half of those wins came by a TD or less. This season opened w/ an unimpressive win over Furman (FCS) and then the 36-28 road win over Notre Dame no longer looks as impressive considering the depths that the Fighting Irish have fallen to. Indiana was off a bye and at home in its 33-28 loss to Wake Forest last week, but it should be pointed out that the Hoosiers owned a decided 611-352 edge in total yardage, only to be undone by a -5 turnover margin. Take the points here.

Another reason I like Indiana in this spot is the misleading final scores we've seen in the prior two meetings. To the "untrained eye," those games appear to be "ho-hum" blowouts in favor of Michigan State (56-17 and 52-26). Sparty was a 16-pt favorite both times. But note that two years ago, here in Bloomington, they trailed at the half (17-14) and didn't pull away until a 21-point 4Q. Last year was even more frustrating for Hoosiers backers. It was only a 28-26 game entering the 4Q in East Lansing, but MSU scored three TDs late (final 5:00) to steal the cover. Sparty wasn't the only top team IU played tough in 2015. They also hung tough w/ both Ohio State and Michigan, losing those games by only seven points apiece. HC Kevin Wilson has this program on an upward trajectory and it's only a matter of time that they end a 23-game losing skid to ranked Big 10 opponents.

For the first time since 2010, Michigan State failed to score a touchdown in a conference game last week. They clearly miss 4-year starter Connor Cook as Tyler O'Connor was not effective last week nor was redshirt freshman Brian Lewerke. Now, IU QB Richard Lagow tossed five interceptions last week (only one called his "fault" by HC Wilson), but I like his chances of a bounce back performance this wk considering the offense still gained 600+ yds LW and also MSU could be w/o two starting linebackers here. The Hoosiers' defense is also improved this year. Sparty is just 1-5 ATS the L3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. IU has been close many times the last couple years; here I can see them pulling an outright upset. 10* Indiana

10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): The Bearcats sure aren't getting much respect at home this week, are they? Yes, QB Hayden Moore is listed as questionable. But the team has enough depth at the position to survive if he doesn't play here. Yes, the Bearcats were "blown out" 40-16 by Houston on national television a couple weeks ago. But they actually were ahead in that game early in the fourth quarter and were covering the spread until the final minutes.Yes, it was 65-27 USF last year. But that was in Tampa and saw Cincy turn the ball over six times. It makes this a huge revenge spot for the home team. I feel USF is still reeling after what happened last week, at home, against Florida State. The 55-35 loss where the defense appeared powerless to stop the 'Noles should be an eye-opener and I'm taking the points in a game I expect an outright win by the dog.

I expected Cincinnati to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year. Last year's 7-6 squad was much better than its record. Note that they were +167.4 YPG in conference play, which was better than all other American teams, Houston included. Three of their losses came by eight points or less. This year hasn't gotten off to a great start, but they did win at Purdue and the defense has been better than I expected. Remember that the fourth quarter meltdown against Houston included two interception returns for TDs. Entering the fourth quarter, they'd allowed only 12 points to the high powered Cougars. In every other game, they've allowed 20 pts or less. I wouldn't worry too much about LW's close call vs. Miami (OH), who always plays Cincy tough. The Bearcats still were +148 in total yds and 29-14 in first downs. Redshirt freshman QB Ross Trail completed 25 of 38 passes for 276 yards.

I believe the Bearcats offense will get it going against a USF defense that was absolutely run over last week to the tune of 55 points and 647 yards allowed. OK, Cincy may not be Florida State, but the week prior saw USF give up another 550 yards to Syracuse, a game they managed to win 45-20 thanks to a +3 turnover margin. That was just the fourth game that Willie Taggart has been favored on the road. This will be #5. I just think that this is a terrible line and after covering 13 of their previous 16 games, LW's loss to FSU should be the beginning of some good old regression to the mean for USF.  10* Cincinnati

10* Under Indians/Royals (4:10 ET): Cleveland, still w/ something to play for (home field in the LDS vs. Boston), won here yday 7-2. There is a chance they may have to play a make-up game vs. Detroit on Monday, which could have playoff implications for both teams. But yday aside, make no mistake about it; the Tribe are limping into the playoffs. Right now, they have only TWO healthy veteran starting pitchers! Carrasco is now done for the year while the status of Kluber and Salazar remains up in the air. But the team got a shockingly good start last night from Ryan Merritt, the first lefty to start for the team all year. He retired the first 13 Royals that he saw. Kansas City has not been a strong offensive team this year. Take the Under here.

One of the Tribe's two healthy starting pitchers right now is Trevor Bauer. Unfortunately, he has not been very effective of late. Each of his L5 starts have gone Over the total. But as stated above, this will be a weak offense that he's facing here. The Royals have scored the third fewest number of runs in the American League this year and they certainly have not been able to solve Cleveland's pitching. In the last 6 head to head meetings, all Indians victories, KC has been held to four runs or less (just 15 total). Bauer has actually not yet faced the Royals in 2016, but in six career starts against them, his ERA is 3.41. He allowed 3 ER or less in all three starts vs. them in 2015 including one complete game. Bauer actually pitches better on the road, where the Under is 7-2 in his starts this year.

Cleveland is 11-2 Under this year, on the road, when the total is 9 or 9.5. A big reason for that is an offense that quite frankly isn't very good away from home. They are actually 28th in runs scored on the road (Kansas City is one of the two teams they are ahead of in that department, Atlanta is the other). They are also 28th in team batting average and 29th in OBP (on the road). This all would seem to position Royals starter Edinson Volquez to have a quality outing this afternoon. Volquez did just hold the Indians to one run and four hits (6 2/3 IP) when he faced them earlier this month. That was his third straight time dominating this lineup. In those L3 starts vs. Cleveland, all since June, Volquez has allowed only 3 ER (10 hits) in 20 2/3 IP. This should be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Indians/Royals

8* Kent State (3:30 ET): It didn't matter who Kent State played this week; automatically it would qualify as a drop in class. That's because last week the Golden Flashes had to travel to Tuscaloosa to take on top ranked Alabama. Things went about as well as you'd expect, which is to say "not well at all" as even the oddsmakers' generosity (were +42) was not enough. The 48-0 loss is "what it is," however, just one loss to a team they had no chance of beating. This game, however, is a much different story as they host rival Akron (schools just 12 miles apart) in the "Battle for the Wagon Wheel." It's a big revenge spot too for KSU as LY saw them shutout by Akron for the 1st time since '85 (20-0). The home team is now 9-2 SU the L11 years including four straight wins. I'll take the points!

I will concede that it has not been a great start to the season for Kent State. The road losses to both Penn State and Alabama are certainly understandable. They, in fact, covered against Penn State (were getting 24 in 33-13 loss) and were down by just a field goal at the half. Last week, all they needed was one TD and they could have covered. But Nick Saban was not in a giving mood with his alma mater. The real "black eye" for the Golden Flashes though is a 39-36 home loss to North Carolina A&T in Week 2, which was a 4 OT game. They shouldn't be losing to FCS schools. But, with this being homecoming and a rivalry game, I expect this is the most motivated KSU will be for any game all season. Coinciding w/ the fact the Flashes are getting almost no public support here, I think they're a great value.

Yes, I'm well aware KSU has already lost two QB's this season, but both were only freshman (one a redshirt). I expect sophomore George Bollas to make the most of this opportunity and he'll likely lean on another freshman, RB Justin Rankin, who leads all 1st year players in the MAC in rushing w/ 275 yds so far. The Flashes should be able to take advantage of an Akron defense that has been quite kind to opposing offenses thus far. The Zips have given up over 500 yards in three straight games and were in not for a stunning 65-38 win at Marshall two weeks ago (were 17.5-pt dogs), there's no way Terry Bowden's team would be getting this much respect here. Last week saw Akron lose by 7 at home to Appalachian State, a game they trailed by 17 at the half and gave up nearly 600 total yards. The Zips came into 2016 as one of the least experienced teams in the country (just seven returning starters) and are due for a "down year" following LY's breakthrough 8-5 SU campaign, in my opinion. The team is just 2-5-1 ATS as a road favorite under HC Bowden, losing four of those games outright, including the 2014 season finale here at Dix Stadium. 8* Kent State

8* Georgia Tech (12:00 ET): Typically, I'd be inclined to say that an off-week is a benefit for a team. But for 3-0 Miami this week, I do not think that's the case. The 14th ranked Hurricanes have now had two weeks to hear "how good they are" in year one under HC Mark Richt and have a big date with Florida State looming next Saturday. Thus, there's a decent chance they may be overlooking Georgia Tech here. That would be a mistake considering the Yellow Jackets not only have revenge for a 38-21 loss in Coral Gables LY (were 2-pt favorites there!), but they are also looking to atone for last Thursday's debacle here at Bobby Dodd Stadium against Clemson. This line has been bet up far too much, IMO, and there's significant value now on the dog. Take the points. 

The Georgia Tech faithful had to be pretty demoralized after the poor showing vs. Clemson. As someone who had the Jackets in the first half, I know that I certainly was. They wound up getting outgained 442-124 in the 26-7 loss (were +10.5), which was a national TV game, thus explaining the lack of public support here. But I think that what makes that result all the more disappointing is GT was coming off a sound 38-7 thumping of an SEC school (Vanderbilt) the week prior (outgained Vandy 511-275). Coming off LY's somewhat "worst case scenario" 3-9 finish (five losses by 7 pts or less), this was a team expected to improve in 2016 and improve they have, already matching LY's season win total. They have a nice win over a similarly improved BC squad in the opener. It is last week's poor showing influencing the line, I think. Again, remember GT was favored at Miami late last season!

Though Miami comes off the bye week, GT has had a couple extra days to prepare here as well. The U hasn't really been tested yet as they've played two terrible in-state foes (Florida A&M, FAU) and Appalachian State. That App State game was a real "Pros vs. Joes" type affair w/ the public all over the 'Canes and the sharps all on the dog. The fact that the result was 45-10 actually works to our advantage here, though, as again it's all about the line value. GT has been the favorite against Miami three of the past four times these teams have played. This is Miami's first road game of the season and the visitor has dropped three straight in this ACC Coastal rivalry. Meanwhile, this is GT's fourth straight home game. 8* Georgia Tech

8* Notre Dame (12:00 ET): I will readily concede that sharp money appears to be "lining up against" the Fighting Irish here. By kickoff, I expect them to be laying single digits at the betting window. But that's just fine by me. This happens to be the ONLY matchup on Saturday's NCAAF card pitting a favorite that lost its last game SU as a favorite against an underdog who won its previous game outright as a dog. Notre Dame has actually lost B2B games outright as a favorite. First, it was to Michigan State, 36-28 as 7.5-pt chalk. Then, last week, at home again they lost to Duke 38-35 as 21.5-pt chalk. Syracuse is off a 31-24 win at UConn as 2.5-pt dogs following B2B blowout losses at the Carrier Dome. This is a neutral site affair. I'm going to buy low on the Golden Domers and lay the points.

For all the talk about how "bad" Notre Dame is right now, the team's three losses have come by a total of 14 points. The opener at Texas went to overtime and saw the offense score 47 points. They rebounded with a dominant 39-10 win over Nevada in South Bend. Turnovers have hurt them the L2 weeks as they were -2 against both Michigan State and Duke. There has not been a single game where this offense did not gain at least 400 total yards this year. Last week, they outgained Duke 534-498, but blew an early 14-0 lead starting when they allowed a kickoff return for a TD. I know that HC Brian Kelly got on his "pulpit," claiming all starting spots are up for grabs; look for that to really motivate the team, which is not nearly as bad as its record. 

Syracuse is not stout defensively. They have allowed 400+ yards to every FBS opponent they have faced so far. That includes UConn last week. Louisville gained an incredible 845 total yards on them. (Not a misprint!). The Orange often struggle to bring pressure and that's a big reason why their pass defense stinks. Look for Irish QB DeShone Kizer to take advantage. Kizer has already thrown for 1100 yards and has 16 touchdown. His offensive line does a good job at keeping him clean. Thus, the Irish's only issue here lies on the defensive end, but I expect them to play better here after coordinator Brian VanGorder was let go. Syracuse QB Eric Dungey is also not 100 percent and may not even play here. 8* Notre Dame

6* Seattle (10:10 ET): Time is running out on the Mariners. With three games to play, they trail the two current Wild Card teams - Toronto and Baltimore - by two games. They would also need to leapfrog Detroit, who was rained out yday and thus stays one-half game up on the M's. Seattle did help its own cause Thursday w/ a 3-2 win over the last place Athletics. They probably need a sweep here, however, to have any chance at making the postseason. Fortunately, the A's should comply as they've got just one win in the last 10 games, plus are now -106 for the year in run differential. They've scored the fewest runs in the American League and guaranteed a last place finish (currently 67-92). Seattle absolutely should win again tonight.

It wasn't necessarily easy for the Mariners yday, but they never trailed and broke a 1-1 tie in the seventh, never to look back. Pitching has been strong of late, allowing just 3.4 rpg their last seven. Taijuan Walker seems to be back in top form and he'll go tonight. Walker is 3-1 his L4 starts overall w/ one CG shutout mixed in there. Last time out, he allowed just three runs in 5 1/3 IP against Minnesota. It's a little surprising to see an 0-2 TSR vs. Oakland this year, but he also hasn't faced them since May. That last time came starting opposite Rich Hill, who is no longer here, and Walker got tagged w/ four unearned runs. His only other start vs. the A's this year saw him allow just two runs in 6 IP. Overall, Seattle is 11-5 vs. Oakland this year.

The A's, who are just 2-8 as a ML road underdog of +175 to +200 this year, are going w/ Raul Alcantara. This will be his fifth start since joining the rotation (1-3 TSR so far) and he was on the losing end vs. Seattle earlier the month. This Oakland team is clearly just "playing out the string" as they've lost 9 of 10 while getting held to two runs or fewer seven times. Twice they've been shutout and three other times they were held to just one run. Seattle has all the reason in the world to keep competing while Oakland has none. 6* Seattle

8* Washington (9:00 ET): By now, you almost certainly are aware of last week's all-time "bad beat" involving Stanford. In the interest of full disclosure, I was on UCLA +3 (at home). Nevermind the fact that the Bruins led outright virtually the entire way, only to give up a late TD (to cap a 70-yd drive) to fall behind 16-13 w/ just 24 seconds to go. I could have settled for the push, I suppose. But no man should have to endure what happened next. On the game's final play, UCLA QB Josh Rosen was hit from behind, fumbled, and it was picked up and returned for a TD. Stanford 22, UCLA 13. No cover for me. I put that on the "Mt Rushmore" of bad beats, alongside Duke-Cincinnati (infamous Belk Bowl) and a similar Ohio St-Northwestern finish from 2013.

Perhaps, I could be accused of "vengeful handicapping," but I'll be fading the Cardinal again this week. Here, they are a dog against a Washington team that I feel in the Pac 12's best. The 10th ranked Huskies are 4-0 straight up and prior to last week (at Arizona) had not been tested. Their first three wins came by an average of 39.3 points per game. Arizona, playing w/o its starting QB & RB took them to OT, but it was a game UW finished w/ a 512-475 edge in total yardage. Note that they were stopped on a fourth and 1 inside Arizona territory plus missed two field goals, so it's a game the Huskies probably should have finished off in regulation. Before allowing a pair of late touchdowns in the fourth quarter, I thought the Washington defense really dominated the second half. This unit leads the nation in takeaways, by the way.

Though they're 3-0, I have not been that impressed w/ Stanford thus far. We've already been through LW's fortunate cover. The week prior, off a bye, they only needed to throw for 109 yds in a 27-10 win over USC. The season opener saw them fail to cover at home vs. Kansas State, a game they actually were outgained 335-272. Give Washington a big edge on offense in this matchup. Stanford is averaging just 25 PPG. UW QB Jake Browning, who missed LY's game vs. the Cardinal, is far more advanced at this stage than counterpart Ryan Burns. Look for Browning and a talented set of skill position players to take advantage of the fact that Stanford will be w/o BOTH starting corners Friday night. Washington has played Stanford tough recently w/ a win on a Thursday night here at home in 2012 and then two close losses in '13 and '14. As mentioned above, Browning did not play last year in Palo Alto. This is the Huskies year to emerge as the top team in the Pac 12, in my opinion. Their home field is one of the loudest in the conference, if not the nation. 8* Washington

8* Colorado (8:10 ET): Admittedly, little (if anything) is at stake this weekend at Coors Field as the Brew Crew comes to town. Both teams are already assured of losing seasons (again) and neither is playing particularly good baseball at the moment. Milwaukee, who had Thursday off, has dropped four of five. Colorado returns home following an unsuccessful 1-6 road trip that saw them have to play at both Los Angeles and San Francisco, the two playoff contenders in their own division. But, the Rockies do have revenge here after being swept in Miller Park last month. I think they're the better team anyway (as does run differential), plus at home they at least have a winning record. The Brewers are a lousy 30-48 on the road this season.

To me, the Rockies should be a little bit closer to .500. They've only been outscored by 15 runs over the course of the season (Milwaukee at -62). Colorado's run diff was actually in the black before the last road trip. Note that in their last home game, they drubbed St. Louis 11-1. Offense will of course pick up tonight as the home team averages 6.4 rpg here at Coors, the highest scoring average at home in all of baseball. Here, they'll face little known Brent Suter, whose big league debut did not go all that well last month. He allowed four runs and seven hits in just 4 1/3 IP. Coming out of the bullpen, he's looked better since (in very limited work), but Coors Field is a whole different animal and tonight he'll be facing multiple players going for individual honors. Nolan Arenado is tied for the NL lead in home runs and is also #1 in all of MLB in RBI's. DJ LeMahieu is going for the batting title and has a great chance to win it w/ Washington's Daniel Murphy injured.

Colorado counters w/ Chad Bettis. The numbers may not suggest he is the team's best pitcher, but he has been the most successful w/ a 20-11 TSR returning 11.95 units at the betting window. Somewhat surprisingly, Bettis' numbers are slightly better at home than on the road. That's a good thing here, obviously. Starting opposite Clayton Kershaw his last time out, Bettis needed to be at his best and wasn't. But before that, the team had won his previous four outings. He did throw a CG shutout (two-hitter) here at home vs. San Fran on 9.2.  8* Colorado

10* Over Rockies/Giants (10:15 ET): Playing the Over in this matchup accounted for my lone loss in MLB yday. Thanks to a shockingly great performance from starter Tyler Chatwood, Colorado shut San Francisco out, 2-0. That was a game the Giants really needed to win too; the Cardinals had already lost and a win would have had them two games up with four to play. Discussed in yday's analysis is that while Rockies' road games obviously see significantly less scoring than their home counterparts, they still average 9.0 rpg. Giants home games average 8.4 rpg. Thus, this number still looks way too low to me, especially b/c we won't have to "worry" about Chatwood pitching well again for the road team. Take the Over.

Jon Gray will be the one pitching tonight for Colorado. He has a 4.59 ERA and 1.242 WHIP in his 28 starts this year. While posting incredible strikeout numbers his L2 starts (26 K's in 13 IP!), Gray continues to give up runs. He allowed four his last time out, in just four innings, as the team fell to the Dodgers by a score of 5-2. The start before that was a remarkable 16 K, CG shutout, but that also came that Padres' expense. (See Dodgers-Padres writeup for breakdown of SD offense). Overall, in three of his last four starts, Gray has given up four or more runs. He allowed six (in only four innings) at San Diego on 9.10 and also gave up five in 7 IP vs. Arizona on 9.4. For what it's worth, the Over is 11-3 this year when Colorado plays on a Thursday.

San Francisco did have 19 hits in a 12-3 win Tuesday, so yday's result was definitely unexpected. Johnny Cueto will start tonight and while his season numbers suggest he may not be our friend (in terms of the Over), I look at his last start and say he was "lucky" not to give up any runs. In just 5 1/3 IP, he allowed eight hits to the Dodgers. Yes, the first Cueto-Gray matchup this year did result in a real "pitcher's duel," (2-1 Giants' win), but this time around, I expect a much different result. Colorado has still allowed 10+ runs three times in the L8 games. Tonight's game may mark just the 14th time this season a Rockies game has gone off with a total of seven runs or less. 10* Over Rockies/Giants

8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): The Dodgers are really letting some golden opportunities slip away here in San Diego. If they end up not having homefield advantage in the LDS vs. Washington (that matchup is already 'locked in'), then Dodger Blue will likely rue this series which has already seen them drop two games to the lowly Padres. It should be pointed out that San Diego has absolutely nothing to play for here; they are still 22 games below .500 w/ a -72 run differential. But they seem to love the spoiler role. However, to me, the key to handicapping this matchup is the fact that the Padres come in on a three-game winning streak. Five times previously this has happened for them, all five times they have lost the next game. Go with the Dodgers.

Juilo Urias has been used sparingly in the Dodgers rotation here in the second half. His last start (9.13) saw him toss 3 2/3 scoreless innings at Yankee Stadium (allowed only four hits). Before that (on 9.2), he held this San Diego lineup to just two runs and three hits in 5 1/3 IP. He has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of his six second half starts so far, which is a good sign. He'll be facing a lineup that is not known for scoring a ton of runs. In fact, the Padres should feel fortunate to even rank 21st in runs scored as they are 28th in slugging (.390) and dead last in both team batting average (.234) and OBP (.299). Thus, the 13 runs they've scored so far in this series certainly should be taken with a grain of salt.

San Diego starter Christian Friedrich takes the mound this evening having posted strong numbers of late (2.84 ERA, 0.895 WHIP). But he has not fared well against Los Angeles this year (6.39 ERA in three stars) or in his entire career for that matter (7.32 ERA in 13 appearances). I mentioned earlier that the Padres are 0-5 this year when on a three-game win streak, well, they are just 24-42 off one win. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 40-28 off a loss. Again, they really need to start winning games down the stretch here as they trail Washington (who lost yday) by two games in the chase for homefield advantage in that LDS matchup. I call for the better team to assert itself on Thursday. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Cincinnati (8:25 ET): In handicapping this game, I was shocked to find that it has been Miami that's both won and covered each of the L3 meetings. The last took place Halloween night (a Thursday) in 2013 and had the unusual finish of the Dolphins winning on a "walkoff" safety in overtime, 22-20. Like their previous two victories over Cincy, it was decided by one score. Miami is actually 8-2 SU/ATS the L10 head to head meetings. But many of those took place during a time when the Bengals were not competitive. Now, they are the perennial playoff contender while Miami is one of the worst run franchises in the sport. It's been a bit of a disappointing 1-2 start for Cincinnati so far, but I can't see them losing at home in B2B weeks considering an outstanding 20-5-1 SU mark at Paul Brown Stadium (reg season only) since 2013. Lay the points.

The Bengals were a dominant team against the spread LY, going 12-3-2. But they are 0-3 at the betting window so far in 2016 and off B2B losses for just the third time in the L3 seasons. It should be noted that they are 2-0 SU/ATS in this situation. Last year, they destroyed St. Louis in this spot, 31-7. In 2013, they crushed Cleveland 41-20. Both of those games were at home and saw them laying more than a touchdown. It should also be noted that the two teams they've lost to are Pittsburgh and Denver, two of the AFC's best. Miami will easily be their weakest opponent so far this season. I think that many of the "issues" that have plagued the Bengals to this point can be alleviated by facing the Dolphins.

Miami had a tough start to the season, drawing Seattle and New England right out of the gate. They covered, and probably should have won, against the Seahawks. But they fell behind big at New England and only made a game out of it once Jimmy Garoppolo exited. I faded them LW as they were laying a big number and barely survived in overtime. This defense is bad as is evident by them giving up 430 total yards to a Browns team that was starting a rookie, third-string QB. Bengals QB Andy Dalton comes in leading the league in passing. I expect Cincy's run game to have a big day as well. They gained 143 yds LW against one of the top defenses in the league. Miami has allowed 160+ rush yards in B2B games. As for the Miami offense, they have clear issues running the ball and there are multiple injuries along the offensive line. They could be starting a third string center. I expect QB Tannehill to be under duress throughout this game as the Bengals' D gets Vontaze Burfict back from suspension. The Dolphins' offense is 25th in rushing and 26th on third down. 8* Cincinnati

10* Over Dolphins/Bengals (8:25 ET): The last time these teams met, Over bettors thought they had one "in the bag." It was a 20-20 game entering overtime (total of 43.0), so no worse that a "push" right? Wrong. Miami actually won on a walkoff safety, giving them (and Under bettors) a 22-20 win. But the Dolphins defense is much worse this go around and I expect Cincy to score at will. I look for the Under streak of three in head to head meetings to come to a halt Thursday night as the Bengals have always proven to be more prolific offensively at home. They aren't facing Denver or Pittsburgh this week. Take the Over.

Miami's defense got off to a good start in holding Seattle to just 12 points in Week 1. Since then, however, it's been all downhill. They were torched early by New England, giving up 31 points to Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett. Last week, even in victory, might have been worse. As big home favorites, they allowed 24 pts and 430 total yards to a Cleveland team that was starting Cody Kessler. They made Terrelle Pryor look like one of the most talented offensive players in the league. Bengals QB Andy Dalton comes in leading the league in passing (938 yards). Cincy was able to run the ball last week against Denver's fearsome defense and Miami ranks near the bottom of the league in rush defense after allowing 160+ yards B2B weeks. The Over is 5-1 in the Bengals' last six home games when the total is 42.5 to 45 points. 

Miami has scored 24 pts in regulation B2B weeks. Granted, they struggle running the ball and on third down. The offensive line is really banged up. But the Bengals have allowed at least 22 pts in every game so far. A first year starter (Trevor Siemian) exploded against the last week for 300+ yards and 4 TD passes. This week, their secondary will be w/o CB Dre Kirkpatrick. I do expect the front seven to get the job done now that Vontaze Burfict is back from suspension, but a few big plays stand to be made by Miami in the passing game w/ WR Jarvis Landry, particularly if they fall behind again like they did at New England. Miami did gain 426 total yards on offense last week. This is a low total. 10* Over Dolphins/Bengals

10* UConn (8:00 ET): A number of factors have conspired to get this number so high. The most notable, of course, is that this is a revenge spot for Houston. The Cougars lone loss last season came at the hands of UConn, playing on the road w/o QB Greg Ward, Jr. They were still 10-pt favorites in Storrs, but fell 20-17, which was easily a season low in points scored and their 318 total yds also marked a season low. UH comes into this year's matchup w/ Ward and ranked #6 in the country. It doesn't help UConn's cause that they are 0-4 ATS, having played nothing but close games. Well, except for the fact that's created some value here w/ them now taking more than four touchdowns. I'm taking the points in what, to me, looks like a clear overlay. 

The latest UConn nailbiter saw them lose 31-24 to Syracuse last Saturday, at home. They came in as slight favorites there, but the sharp money was against them. They dominated the TOP (38:29-21:31), # of plays (91-66) and rushing yardage (144-62) battles. Tied 17-17 late in the third quarter, that game swung on a pick-six. Syracuse then put the game away late w/ a 99-yard drive. Of course, considering UConn had just survived a missed 20 yd FG the week prior (vs. Virginia), some may view last Saturday's result as a bit of comeuppance. But the fact remains, every UConn game this season has been decided by one score. Their defense remains strong under HC Bob Diaco. Last year, the Huskies allowed fewer than 20 PPG. This year, thanks to 10 returning starters, the offensive side of the ball has been a bit better as they are up to 354.4 YPG. This team is 7-2 ATS its last nine Thursday games.

Houston obviously is rolling. It started w/ the impressive win over Oklahoma in the opener. Last week saw them absolutely humiliate Texas State, 64-3, finishing w/ a 565-142 edge in total yards (429-82 in 1st half!). This is a legit CFP contender, but they did have a misleading 40-16 final against Cincinnati on a Thurs night two weeks ago as they actually trailed outright heading into the fourth quarter. I get that the knee-jerk reaction is to call for revenge, but this is just far too many points to lay in a conference game. With a total just a shade over 50 pts, little is being expected from UConn. They'll score enough to stay within the number. 10* UConn

8* Kansas City (7:15 ET): The Royals were officially eliminated from playoff contention yday, but as per usual are playing well "this time of year." They've now won four in a row following yday's 5-2 victory. Of course, it helps drawing the horrible Twins as an opponent. Minnesota has been the "gift that keeps on giving" this season as they started in an 0-9 hole, which proved to be insurmountable. There was a brief attempt at a midseason resurgence, but now the team is  56-102 w/ a -173 run differential, which is easily the AL's worst. Somewhat incredibly, they are just 10-36 their last 46 games, including a horrible September that has seen them drop 10 of their last 11. I can't really see any reason NOT to go against them here as I imagine they just want this miserable season to end.

Yes, it has been a very disappointing defense of LY's World Series title. But the Royals remain a pretty safe bet at Kauffman Stadium where they are 47-30 overall this year, including 7-1 in the -150 to -175 range on the money line. Toeing the rubber tonight will be Danny Duffy, who overall has been their most reliable pitcher in 2016. There was a time when the only time they won was w/ him on the mound. Overall, Duffy sports a 17-8 TSR including 11-3 at home. He's yet to drop a decision here (7-0) where his ERA and WHIP are 3.35 and 1.116 respectively. Despite a rough outing in Detroit last week, Duffy remains in the Top 20 in net units earned among all starting pitchers this year. For his career, he has a 2.53 ERA against the Twins (11 starts) and he's allowed just four runs to them in two starts this year (12 2/3 IP) while striking out 14 and walking only two.

The Twins have been predictably terrible on the road this year (26-51), but here in Kansas City, things have been very bad. As in an 0-9 record! They are just 3-15 overall vs. the Royals this year and 10-27 against them since the start of last season. Starting Kyle Gibson is unlikely to turn things around as he comes in with a 5.04 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in 24 starts this year. He somehow managed to come out on the winning end vs. Duffy earlier this month (though neither pitcher factored into the decision). Duffy actually pitched better, but the KC bullpen had a rare meltdown. It also should be pointed out that Minnesota's offense has been held to three runs or fewer in ELEVEN consecutive games (scored just 21 runs total). This has all the makings of a sweep Thursday night. 8* Kansas City

10* Over Rockies/Giants (10:15 ET): Following a 12-3 win yday, San Francisco now trails the Mets by one-half game, but is a full game up on the Cardinals. Two of those three teams will meet in the National League's Wild Card game next week. It has been a bit of a precipitous fall for the Giants, who entered the All-Star Break w/ the best overall record in baseball! They haven't won B2B games since 9.15-9.16 (over the Cardinals), thus I can't endorse them here. But I do like the Over, especially after what we saw from the Giants offense last night, plus the Rockies have now allowed 10 or more runs in three of their past seven games. The Giants had 19 hits yday.

Pitching here for Colorado is Tyler Chatwood. He's done remarkably well on the road this season (1.88 ERA), yet the Under has remained a more profitable bet for him at home due to the high totals. He also has 15 walks in his L5 starts. After struggling at home (vs. San Diego!) on 9.16, Chatwood was a bit sharper his last time out. He allowed just two runs on five hits at Dodger Stadium (pitcher friendly), but the Rockies went on to lose that game anyway, 7-4. It was the fourth time in those last five starts that the Over cashed. Obviously, scoring goes way down in Colorado games once they exit Coors Field, but we're still talking about an average of 9.0 runs in their road games. That makes the O/U line for tonight look awfully small.

Giants home games average a solid 8.4 rpg. They counter w/ Jeff Samardzija, who was lights out the last time we saw him, which was last Thursday. He held San Diego scoreless over seven innings, but I'm betting that we'll see some regression here. The nine strikeouts he had vs. the Padres matched a season-high set back in May. Colorado's offense may not have done much lately, but they do average 5.4 rpg for the season when facing right-handed starters. Of course, with Rockies' pitching having allowed 44 hits the L3 games and 7.6 runs the L7 games, Samardzija won't necessarily have to be at his sharpest here.  10* Over Rockies/Giants

10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): I feel as if it's "been a minute" since we've checked in on the White Sox. That's somewhat for good reason as they are already assured of no better than a .500 finish, their fourth consecutive season doing so. But, they have been playing well of late w/ four straight wins, the last two coming here at home against the current opponent, Tampa Bay. Conversely, the Rays have now lost five in a row after the 7-1 loss Monday and 13-6 loss Tuesday. Those are hardly "close games," thus I think it makes a lot of sense to "ride the hot hand" here and back the home team. Note that it was a 13-3 game last night heading into the ninth inning. Chicago's offense produced eight extra base hits in the victory.

Miguel Gonzalez may have only four wins in 22 starts this season for the Sox, but there have been a ton of times where he has not factored in the decision. He rejoined the starting rotation earlier this month and made three consecutive quality starts. Then, he allowed five runs in Cleveland, Friday. That actually snapped a streak of nine consecutive quality starts dating back before his time spent on the DL and his second half ERA going into that last start was 2.96! He did not face Tampa Bay in the only other series that took place between these teams, back in April. It should be pointed out that Chicago is a much better team at home where they are 43-33.  

The Rays are heading in the wrong direction as their season comes to a close. They've lost five straight and eight of nine. Having Blake Snell pitch tonight probably won't help, even though he is coming off five shutout innings vs. the Yankees last Thursday. That was Tampa's only win in the last nine games, but the fact remains Snell has been pretty inconsistent as is evident by the fact his WHIP is still 2.083 his L3 starts despite the strong effort his last time out. His biggest problem has been walks as there's been only one second half start where he didn't issue multiple free passes. Overall, he has 50 walks in 86 1/3 innings pitched.  The Rays have just been a terrible road team this year (29-47) and have also scored the second fewest number of runs in the American League. This is a great price considering the respective current states of the two clubs. 10* Chi White Sox

10* Seattle (2:10 ET): This all-important rubber match sees the two teams separated by just one-half game in the standings (Seattle up), chasing Baltimore for the final Wild Card. Time is running out as the Mariners are two games back w/ five to play and would also have to jump the Tigers. Houston won here yday, 8-4, but I have not yet given up hope on the Mariners' playoff aspirations. It was looking like a second straight Seattle victory last night; that was until the Astros busted loose for a six run sixth. What hurts about that one is that the M's had Felix Hernandez on the mound. But they appear to have the edge in starting pitching again this afternoon w/ James Paxton and I'll throw my support behind him.

Paxton comes in w/ a 2.50 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he held Minnesota to only one run and five hits in seven innings of work, also finishing w/ 9 K's and zero walks. The start before that saw him face Houston. There, he allowed only two runs and four hits in another seven inning effort. Unfortunately, it was a hard-luck loss w/ Seattle coming out on the wrong end, 2-1. Still, Paxton has picked a great time to have this resurgence and I see him getting his revenge on the Astros today. In the daytime, he has a 3-1 TSR this season. Houston's lineup is hitting only .239 in day games this season. Since July 22nd, Paxton has allowed 2 ER or less in six of 10 starts.

Meanwhile, Houston's Doug Fister has not pitched well of late. He comes in w/ a 7.90 ERA and 1.829 WHIP his L3 starts. That is largely owed to one disastrous showing against these Mariners where he allowed seven runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Needless to say, the Astros lost that game, 7-3.  Overall, the team has lost each of Fister's last six starts. He has faced the M's four times this season and has a 6.86 ERA. Overall, I have Seattle graded as the slightly better team, so w/ the pitching edge they are justified to come in favored on the road for this one. They've gone 15-9 here in September. 10* Seattle

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This is an incredibly cheap price on the Dodgers all things considered. Despite having the NL West locked up, this team still has something to play for and that's homefield advantage in the LDS vs. Washington. Considering Dodger Blue's tremendous home record this season (53-28), homefield advantage is something they should be after. Their first opponent this week is lowly San Diego, a team w/ nothing to play for that's 24 games under .500 w/ a -79 run differential. While more competitive here at home, the Padres are just 8-20 in the +125 to +175 range on the ML at Petco this season and 9-16 here vs. the Dodgers since 2014. I can't see any legit reason to endorse San Diego here.

There has been a pitching change for the Dodgers tonight as Maeda is now starting. I like them even more now! The team comes in having won 8 of 10 and are off a thrilling win Sunday over the Rockies (fifth straight) that gave them a sweep and the NL West title. Over the L7 games, LA is giving up 2.3 rpg w/ opponents batting just .218. San Diego comes in batting just .212 as a team its L7 games. The Dodgers have won five of the last six overall meetings vs. the Padres and are 67% the L3 seasons (36-18) against them.

The Padres counter with Paul Clemens, who has pitched well of late. He's allowed only two unearned runs his L2 starts, but he's allowed five runs in his last two starts against division winners - Boston and the Cubs - and both of those games took place here at home. Another key here is that San Diego is off a win. They are just 22-42 in that situation this year. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Twins/Royals (7:15 ET): Defending World Series Champion Kansas City is technically still alive in the playoff race. But the team is very likely to be eliminated from contention today, win or lose. Thus, outside of the Royals trying to finish w/ a winning record, this series has very little meaning. Minnesota is the opponent and they've been buried in last place all season long. They come in w/ the worst record in baseball (56-100) and have - by far - given up the most runs. Only Cincinnati and Colorado are even within "sniffing distance" of the Twins' 864 runs allowed this season, which works out to an average of 5.5 rpg. The Over cashed in all three games of the previous series between these teams (earlier this month) and I think that bet is the way to go in tonight's opener as well. Take the Over.

Jose Berrios is set to toe the rubber for Minnesota here and that will greatly aid our cause here. The Over is 8-2 in Berrios' 12 starts this year (two pushes). That's largely owed to the fact he has an unsightly 8.88 ERA and 1.972 WHIP. Berrios often does not go deep into games. He lasted only four innings his last time out and gave up two home runs. He was lucky that they were both solo shots and that it ended up being only a 3-0 loss for the team. His L2 starts are the only Unders for Berrios all season, yet he still has a 2.057 WHIP his last three. He's faced KC twice in 2016 and allowed a total of nine runs in nine innings. That last start (which came in a NL park) marked just the fourth time all year that Berrios allowed 3 ER or fewer, but again, he also went only four innings.

Minnesota is by far and away the top Over team in baseball this year w/ a 92-56-8 record. There really isn't a single situation where the Over hasn't been a profitable bet w/ this team in 2016. Well, ironically, except for here in Kansas City where they've gone 0-7 this season and the Under is 5-1-1. But, again, the Over went 3-0 in the last series between the two teams. Starting here for the Royals will be Ian Kennedy, who probably should have given up more runs than just three his last time out, considering he also allowed 10 hits. The Royals' L7 games have seen an average of more than 10.0 rpg scored. Their offense managed 40 hits in the three games vs. Detroit. 10* Over Twins/Royals

10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays (7:05 ET): The stakes are high "North of the Border" in a potential AL Wild Card Game preview. Entering this series, Toronto sits in the pole position (86-70), but Baltimore is just one game back and close behind are both Detroit & Seattle (two games back of Baltimore). The Orioles are coming off a sweep over the weekend, but that was at home and against the D'backs. One key thing to remember when handicapping this series is that the O's have a losing road record. (They finish the reg season in New York). However, it's the total that is more attractive to me in this spot. The Under was a perfect 3-0 in the last series between these two AL East rivals and considering what's on the line this week, I expect "playoff-like intensity" and very few runs to be scored. Take the Under.

Both teams have been trending Under of late. Toronto is 8-2 Under its L10 games and in the last seven, they've allowed an average of just 2.3 rpg and an opponents' batting average of .178. Charged w/ keeping this trend alive tonight is Aaron Sanchez, who is 13-2 in 28 starts (16-12 TSR) and off a hard luck no-decision his last time out. Going up against Seattle w/ Felix Hernandez, Sanchez allowed just one run in 6 IP, but the Blue Jays ultimately came up short, 2-1. The Under is now 19-9 in Sanchez's 28 starts this year. Note that the L3 times Sanchez has faced Baltimore, he's allowed only 4 ER in 19 IP. The last two have both gone Under. While the O's are off a sweep, the offense comes in averaging just 2.7 rpg its last seven contests. I like Sanchez to hold up his end of the bargain here.

Baltimore has gone Under in nine straight. They counter w/ Kevin Gausman. Like Sanchez, the Under has been profitable when he starts this year. That bet is 20-8 overall when he pitches, including 6-0 his L6! Three times in his last five starts, Gausman hasn't given up a single run! He didn't fare so well the last time he saw Toronto, but pitched well here at Rogers Centre back in June. It was five straight quality outings for Gausman before running into Boston his last time out. The Orioles did have off yday, while Toronto lost here at home to the Yankees, which is a slight advantage. But, Under remains the way to go as the L4 meetings have all seen eight or less total runs scored. 10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): For much of this season, these teams have been "neck and neck," trying to fight their way out of last place in the American League West. Currently, the Angels are 1.5 games up, but according to run differential that gap should be even greater. The Halos have only been outscored by 30 runs over the course of this season while the A's are at -95 (second worst). Those respective scoring differentials indicate that the gap between the teams should be closer to eight games! Consider that LA actually owns a slightly better run diff than Kansas City, who is currently two games above .500! Another factor favoring the Angels here is that prior to yday's results, these teams were heading in opposite directions. They had won four straight while Oakland had lost five in a row. I'll back the home team in this one.

The primary reason that the Athletics seem to be getting so much respect from the linesmakers here is that they have Sean Manaea pitching. Over his L3 starts, Manaea has not given up an earned run and has allowed just seven hits in 14 1/3 IP (five walks). But I'm not buying it. Last time he faced the Angels (8.2), he gave up five runs in 5 2/3 IP. That's actually the only time he's faced them and it was a 5-4 loss. Keep in mind that Manaea missed the first two weeks of September w/ a back injury. He should not expect much support from an offense which failed to score a single run both Friday and Saturday at home against the Rangers. Overall, A's hitters are batting a collective .203 the past seven games.

That's got to be "music to the ears" of Angels' starter Jered Weaver, who has been in fine form himself of late. He's also typically a much better pitcher at home than on the road. This will be the 38th time in Weaver's career that he's faced Oakland and he has a 2.91 ERA and 1.099 WHIP. The starts this year haven't necessarily been great, but again, he's been better overall of late w/ a 4-1 record (5-1 TSR) his L6 starts and 31 K's in 34 2/3 IP. The A's easily grade out as the second worst team in the entire American League (ahead of only Minnesota) while the Angels are a middle of the road group, making tonight's money line an excellent value. 10* LA Angels

8* 1st Half New Orleans (8:30 ET): Atlanta was a nice winner for me LW as they went to Oakland and prevailed, outright, 35-28 as a four-point dog. I think that's the reason that some of the sharper money has come in on them for Monday night. But, let us not forget that this is the same team that lost outright, at home, to Tampa Bay in Week 1. For all the valid criticisms that exist regarding the Saints' defense, much of the same applies to Dan Quinn's group, which has surrendered 59 points in two games. Back to back road wins seem unlikely for this team, especially considering they were swept by New Orleans last year. Early on, the Superdome should be rocking as this is the 10-year anniversary of the building reopening after Hurricane Katrina. It will be difficult for the Falcons to match the home team's intensity.

While it may seem a little "unscientific" to cite emotional reasons for taking the Saints in the 1H, note that I made the mistake of fading this team 10 years ago in the famous game vs. Atlanta where the Superdome reopened. Looking at present times, New Orleans certainly needs no extra motivation as they return home at 0-2 SU and know another loss puts them in a severe hole. Last week saw them lose 16-13 to the Giants despite a +3 turnover margin. But we all know this is a much better team at home. Even though they lost here in Week 1, 35-34 to the Raiders, the offense rolled up over 500 yds total offense in that game and only lost when Oakland converted a two-point conversion in the final minute. So, that's two losses by a total of four points thus far. The much maligned defense actually didn't give up a TD last week!

As I already mentioned, the Saints swept the Falcons last year, including a 31-21 win here at home in primetime (Thursday night game). This is a team that's gone 6-2 ATS the previous two seasons off B2B losses. Remember when the Saints never lost a home, primetime game? HC Sean Payton has owned Atlanta during his tenure here, going 15-5 SU against them. Furthermore, that includes an 8-2 mark at home with him covering four of the last five times. A second straight strong performance from Atlanta on the road just seems unlikely, especially in this environment. This is a good value only needing a halftime lead. 8* 1st Half New Orleans

10* Under Brewers/Rangers (8:05 ET): Texas has already clinched the American League West, but there's still work to be done here as they are vying for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They enter the day tied w/ red-hot Boston (won 11 straight) for the top spot in the AL, 1.5 games in front of Cleveland. That's still not enough to get me to endorse them, however, even though this appears to be a favorable draw w/ a lowly National League team coming to town. I have stated my concerns with this Rangers team many times throughout the season as I must continue to point to their +11 run differential, which makes a 92-64 record seem awfully fluky. They lost yday, in Oakland, as well. Instead, I'll go w/ the Under here as I failed w/ the Over in yday's game (push). The Under is now 6-0-1 the Rangers' last seven games w/ an average score of 3.3 runs per game for both sides.

Milwaukee got held to just three runs in a pair of losses at Cincinnati over the weekend. They've averaged just 2.6 rpg their last seven contests w/ a team batting average of .206. In six of those games, they've been held to three runs or less. Theoretically, you'd expect their offense to benefit from the addition of the DH, but theory really doesn't apply to a team that's relegated to "playing out the string" right now. They'll also have to face Martin Perez, who has made four consecutive quality starts and has a 2.79 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in the last three. Perez has allowed just seven hits in his last two starts, both resulting in Unders, and didn't walk anybody his last time out.

This seems to be a really high number considering the recent lack of offensive production on both sides. Brewers' games average only 8.6 rpg this season and when facing a lefty, they dip down to 3.6 rpg. Meanwhile, the Under is 10-4 this year for the Rangers in Interleague play. Here, they face Matt Garza, who had allowed just 1 ER in three consecutive starts before giving up five his last time out. He's also been touched up for a lot of unearned runs his L6 starts (ten!) and it's not as if he's been giving up a ton of hits. Meanwhile, the Under is 2-0 for Perez when pitching at home vs. a NL foe as he's allowed just three runs in 11+ IP. Milwaukee comes in ranked just 25th in runs scored and 28th in team batting average. 10* Under Brewers/Rangers

6* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays have pretty much "put the Yankees to bed" this weekend by taking the first three games of this four game set. At the same time, that's clearly improved their own playoff prospects as they now sit 1.5 games ahead of Baltimore for the top Wild Card spot and are a full three games clear of Detroit, who is the "last team out" entering today. Considering recent form and their history here North of the border, I simply cannot see New York "getting off the mat" in the unusual situation of playing a series finale on a Monday. They've not only dropped 11 of 14 overall, but they are 0-8 their last eight games here at Rogers Centre. The offense has been virtually non-existent for Joe Girardi of late and that's a problem facing JA Happ. Home team should win big tonight.

Going into yday, the Yankees had been shutout in three consecutive games. No AL team had been shutout four straight times since the advent of the designated hitter in 1973! But all they managed Sunday were three runs and now they have to face Happ, who is a 20-game winner (23-7 TSR) that has dominated them throughout the course of 2016. In four starts this year, Happ has a 4-0 team start record against the Yankees w/ a 2.39 ERA. He comes in having gone 3-0 his previous three starts overall w/ a 2.65 ERA and 1.059 WHIP. Going back to the start of July, Happ has not allowed more than 4 ER in any start (3 or less in 12 of 14). He's allowed 1 ER or less seven times. The Yankees and their pathetic lineup seem like the least likely candidates to breakthrough against Happ right now. 

Did I mention that the Yankees are sending Luis Severino out to the mound? While Happ ranks near the top of the pecking order in net units, Severino is at the bottom. In fact, had he started more times, one might surmise he'd be dead last. The Yanks have lost all nine of his 2016 starts, the last one coming back on August 19th where he allowed seven runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Toronto has not yet gotten to face him this year, but I expect their bats to "tee off" here. His ERA and WHIP the L3 starts overall are 16.03 and 2.530. On paper, this shapes up as one of the biggest mismatches of the entire MLB season. 6* Toronto

8* Chicago (8:25 ET): Certainly I can't see the public showing "much love" to an 0-2 Bears team that was just embarrassed LW at home on MNF. Not to mention, they lost starting QB Jay Cutler in that 29-14 loss to the Eagles and thus are forced to turn to Brian Hoyer here. Despite that, I feel the linesmakers have made a classic overadjustment with the spread, which was set to be -4.5 prior to the MNF debacle. Dallas is fortunate not to be 0-2 themselves as they took advantage a Kirk Cousins INT in the end zone LW and went down to score the GW TD in a 27-23 win over the Redskins. Remember they are starting a rookie QB (Dak Prescott) themselves. I anticipate a close game here. Take the points.

The Cowboys were outgained last week, 432-380. Week 1 saw the offense put only 19 points on the board. This is the first time that this team will have been substantially favored (were -1 vs. NYG). We all know how poorly HC Jason Garrett has been in the chalk role throughout his career. They are just 7-11 ATS laying points the L3 seasons, including 1-3 at home if laying more than a field goal, but less than a touchdown.  and let's not forget about a terrible 4-13 ATS home record either that includes an outright loss to the Giants. They are 8-24 ATS as a home favorite under Garrett and have actually now lost EIGHT straight home games dating back to last year and their last home win w/o Tony Romo as the QB was all the way back in 2010! There are injuries along the offensive line, which is the strength of this team. The running game has yet to really get going.

The good news for Chicago is that Alshon Jeffrey will play. That makes life easier on Hoyer. Note that the Bears defense only allowed 280 total yards last week. What killed them was a -3 turnover margin. Clean that up and things can be just fine. Hoyer, while not ideal, has won games in this league before, certainly more than Prescott. I just don't think Dallas should be laying this many points - to any opponent right now.  8* Chicago

10* Under Chargers/Colts (4:25 ET): Both of these teams have gone Over in their two games so far. However, that's a bit misleading. From the Indianapolis perspective, LW's game at Denver only went Over due to a late FG + defensive TD (2nd of the game) from the Broncos. In fact, that late TD also cost Colts backers the cover. As for San Diego, their defense has played much better than anticipated, save for one 4th quarter meltdown against the Chiefs in Week 1. Both TD's given up to Jacksonville last week came in garbage time. However, if there is one worry with the Chargers, it's that skill position players appear to be "dropping like flies." Therefore, they may not be able to take full advantage of a suspect and injured Colts defense. I'm on the Under here.

For San Diego, the offense has already suffered two major season-ending injuries: WR Keenan Allen and RB Danny Woodhead. Those are major losses. TE Antonio Gates is also unlikely to play here. QB Philip Rivers has still managed to deliver a 5-0 TD-INT ratio in spite of this, but how long can he keep it up? Yes, he's going up against a defense that has given up a NFL-high 73 points through two games. But I look for SD to be more of running team this week as Melvin Gordon is starting to emerge in his sophomore season. Note that over the last three seasons, the Over is 9-2 in Chargers games when the closing line is three points or less. That includes a 6-1 mark as a road underdog. The Indianapolis defense only allowed 20 pts last week when factoring out the defensive TDs. 

San Diego defensive coordinator John Pagano is the brother of Indianapolis' HC Chuck. So there's familiarity there. Also, John will be bringing in a rapidly improving defense. In Week 1, the Chargers held the Chiefs to only 10 points through three quarters before melting down late. Last week, the passing yards accumulated by Blake Bortles and Jacksonville all came late. This time, the Lightning Bolts had too big of a lead to blow. Until the 4Q last week, the Jags didn't have a single drive last longer than six plays. That's trouble for Andrew Luck and a Colts offense that is w/o WR Donte Moncrief. Last week, facing an admittedly top defense, Indy gained only 253 total yds. This is actually the third straight year the Colts have opened 0-2. I don't like this team at all right now, especially w/ Luck batting an injured throwing shoulder. Look for a fare lower scoring game than expected here. 10* Under Chargers/Colts

10* Over Rangers/A's (4:05 ET): This series has certainly not gone well for Oakland as they've been shut out in both game so far, losing 3-0 and 5-0. For Texas, those wins have enabled them to stay a game in front of red-hot Boston (won 10 straight) and 1.5 gms ahead of Cleveland as the three AL division winners continue to compete for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The fact that the Rangers have a shaky road record (42-38) and a run differential of just +17 (Boston is +191!) keep me off them in this spot. Instead, I'll call for the A's to actually score a few runs today and for this game to go Over the total. There should be more runs scored today than we've seen in the previous two games combined.

Texas comes into today having seen their L6 games all stay Under the total. None of those games have seen more than nine total runs scored. But they are a starting a pitcher (Colby Lewis), who has a 6.90 ERA and 1.469 WHIP his L3 outings. Lewis has lasted only 5 1/3 IP in B2B starts, the last one coming against these A's. That wound up being a 5-2 loss for the Rangers as Lewis walked five batters. Lewis has certainly faced the A's plenty of times; this will be the 28th. So they should know him well. Keep in mind that last week's series in Arlington saw the A's score a total of 22 runs in the three games.

Two of those three games last week went Over. It was the finale that did not. Here, though I look for the exact reverse to occur. Making his fourth start for the A's will be Jharel Cotton. He's looked pretty good so far, but this will be the top offense that he has faced. Texas averages 4.8 rpg and is 46-38 Over following a win this year. I look for both offenses to have their best game of the series here. 10* Over Rangers/A's

6* NY Mets (1:10 ET):  The Mets suffered a rough loss yday. As a result, they are now tied with the Giants, one-half game ahead of the Cardinals in the Wild Card chase. The team they lost to was the Phillies. Given the stakes involved this final week, that can't happen. At one point, the Mets trailed 10-0 Saturday. They fought back valiently, but ultimately came up short, losing 10-8. Again, given the Phillies current standing, the Mets should not be losing to this team. Philly's YTD run differential of -152 is third worst in all of baseball. I look for the defending NL champs to bounce back Sunday in a game they have to have.

Injuries have taken a Mets rotation that was the envy of all (save for the Cubs) to a real "rogue's gallery."  Here, it will be Robert Gsellman, making his sixth career start. Ironically, the first came against Philadelphia. It didn't go well as he allowed 4 ER in six innings and the Mets lost 5-1. But since then, Gsellman has gotten a lot better. He's allowed just seven runs over his L22 IP, working out to a 2.86 ERA in the last four outings. He faced Atlanta and Washington twice during that time and in both instances he was better the second time around. Thus, I feel the pattern should continue here. Although the Mets' rally ultimately came up short Saturday, I think there will be a carryover effect from the eight straight runs scored.

Sunday will be the Phillies' final road game of 2016. They are just 34-43 away from Citizens Bank Park in 2016, basically getting outscored by a full run per game. This is a terrible offensive ballclub, so yday's 10-run output needs to be taken w/ a grain of salt. They are 30th in runs scored, 29th in batting average, 29th in OBP and 29th in slugging. Pitching for them here will be Jake Thompson, who has a 3-6 TSR, including 0-3 on the road (9.21 ERA, 1.842 WHIP).  Also of note is that this is a day game. The Mets are 28-18 in day games this year. The Phillies are 21-30.  6* NY Mets

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): Things are quickly going from "bad to worse" in Cleveland w/ the Browns turning to their third starting QB in as many games. It will be Cody Kessler (USC) going here in Week 3 and making his job more difficult is the fact fellow rookie Corey Coleman, the receiver out of Baylor, is out w/ a broken hand. Little to nothing was expected from the Browns, but their 0-2 start is making you wonder where & when the wins will come this season. They clearly grade out as the worst team in the league right now. That all being said, I don't believe that their opponents, the Miami Dolphins, deserve to be in this price range against anybody right now. They too are 0-2 and coming off tough road games vs. Seattle and New England, I don't think a simple return home equals a blowout. Take the points here.

Miami was in position to upset Seattle in Week 1, but allowed a late TD to lose that one, 12-10. Things did not get off to a good start LW in New England as they fell behind 31-3 and only rallied to make a game out of it once Pats QB Jimmy Garoppolo left w/ an injury. QB Ryan Tannehill was able to pile up some meaningless passing stats facing a vanilla New England defense that was basically playing a prevent for much of the 2H. Of greater concern w/ the Dolphins offense is that Tannehill leads the team in rushing through two games w/ 52 yards! The team's running backs are averaging just 3.3 YPC and Arian Foster has been ruled out for this week. Up front, center Mike Pouncey seems doubtful as he hasn't practiced all week.

Yes, it's a real "motley crew" for the Browns on offense here. But I think they'll still be able to move the ball here on a Miami defense that is not good. Consider that the Dolphns are allowing 136.5 rush YPG so far and gave up 465 total to a Patriots team that was playing w/ a second and then third string QB. Cleveland did show some life LW at home vs. Baltimore, jumping out to a 20-0 lead before blowing it and losing 25-20. They did outgain the Ravens, 387-382. Again though, this one boils down to a bad team laying a lot of points. Consider that this is the FIRST time since the final week of the 2013 season where they have been asked to lay a TD or more. The last time they closed as a DD favorite was 2009! The oddsmakers have adjusted far too much for a QB change (McCown to Kessler) that is largely irrelevant. Take the points.  8* Cleveland

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Is 0-2 Jacksonville this bad and 2-0 Baltimore this good? I'm banking on the answer to both questions being "no." The winless Jaguars had a relatively strong Week 1 showing as they took favored Green Bay to the limit, losing 27-23. At the time, holding Aaron Rodgers and the Packers under 300 total yds seemed really impressive. But then Gus Bradley's defense was torched by San Diego last week in a 38-14 loss that was never close. I laid the points w/ the Chargers in that game, mind you. Baltimore's 2-0 SU/ATS start has come at the expense of a pair of bad teams - Buffalo and Cleveland - and the games were decided by a total of 11 pts. The Ravens lost their fair share of close games last year, so it's nice to see fortune going their way in 2016. However, I see this being their first loss of 2016.

In Week 1 against Buffalo, the Ravens scored only 13 points. Last week, on the road, they had to squeak by a Cleveland team that happens to be the worst in the league. They trailed early, 20-0 in fact, before rallying to win by five. They were slightly outgained by the Browns. Even after that win, the Ravens are still just 9-16 SU on the road the L4 seasons. Therefore, I don't like the idea of them winning B2B weeks away from home. As a matter of fact, they haven't pulled off B2B road wins since 2012! Were it not for three long Justin Tucker FG's last week and a blocked PAT return for safety, Baltimore would have lost to the Browns. I think it's fair to say Jacksonville is their toughest opponent to date.

The Jags should be motivated here after the dismal showing last week against a good San Diego team. While Jacksonville is the toughest opponent Baltimore will have faced to this point, a case could be made that the Ravens are the Jaguars' weakest opponent so far. I realize that Blake Bortles and the offense have disappointed so far, but w/ RB Chris Ivory set to play for the first time, the run game should be better here. I think that the maligned defense will step up against a Baltimore offense that has scored all of three touchdowns this year. Again, two weeks ago, the Jags held the Packers under 300 total yds here at home. Over the past two years, the Ravens are 1-6 SU off B2B SU wins. 8* Jacksonville

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): This certainly shapes up as a classic "pros vs. joes" spot as on paper, there's no real reason to believe in the 0-2 Bills here against a Cardinals team that just won its last game, 40-7. But it is an early start time for Arizona and the line has done some "curious" things over the course of the week. The Cards opened as roughly 5.5-pt favorites and have received the bulk of the tickets (over 80%) for this Week 3 matchup. Yet, the number has come DOWN. This is a real "must-win" spot for Buffalo HC Rex Ryan, who just fired his OFFENSIVE coordinator after losing a game 37-31 (to the Jets). That loss did occur on a Thursday night, so there's been added time to prepare here. Remember that the Cardinals did lose at home in Week 1 to the Jimmy Garoppolo-led Patriots. To quote Chris Berman (ugh!), I'll call for Buffalo to "circle the wagons." Take the points.

Arizona really benefited from a +5 turnover margin LW against Tampa Bay. Granted, there's no point in picking apart a 40-7 win, but any team will win in this league if they're +5 in TO's. A key thing to watch with this Cardinals defense is that Tyronn Mathieu is still attempting to get over LY's ACL injury and is not ready to assume his normal role. Instead, he's been relegated to the simple role of free safety. Also, there are injuries along the offensive line. LT Jared Veldheer was added to the injury list during the week and RG Evan Mathis had a foot that looked "purple" according to QB Carson Palmer. I'll reiterate that we've seen "West Coast" teams struggle when coming out East for these early start times. Incredibly, this is only the second time Arizona has played at Buffalo since 1990!

Injuries and disarray have led to the Bills falling out of favor with the public. But I find it hard to believe that the defense is as bad as it looked LW vs. the Jets. This is, after all, still a Rex Ryan defense. They held Baltimore to only 13 pts here at home in Week 1. Last week, the offense woke up. Although Sammy Watkins may not play here, they should be used to playing w/o him at this point. Again, Ryan's back is against the wall here. He needs this game badly. I expect an "all-out effort" here from the Bills, who are 5-2 ATS getting a FG or more at home since the start of the 2013 season. Arizona won too many close games LY - they are due to drop one. 8* Buffalo

10* Washington (1:00 ET): The Redskins are off to an 0-2 start, both losses coming at home. In Week 1, on Monday Night Football, they were embarrassed by Pittsburgh (lost 38-16). But they probably should have won LW vs. Dallas. They outgained the Cowboys 432-380, but a terrible Kirk Cousins INT (in the end zone) really swung that game. Now, last year's NFC East leaders are in a desperate spot, facing a division rival that's 2-0. The Giants, who lost a ton of close games LY, have won their two games this year by a total of four points. So that's certainly a reversal of fortune. Last week against the Saints, they won despite not scoring an offensive TD. A decision to kick a FG and not go in the end zone at the end of the game cost bettors a cover. What I see here is a desperate 0-2 underdog in a division tilt. I'm going to take the points as the G-Men are a little lucky to be 2-0.

I'd like to see Washington run the ball a bit more here w/ Matt Jones. Granted, New York is conceding just 3.3 YPC so far, but that's because they just faced a Saints team that ran the ball only 13 times for 41 yards. It was definitely Cousins that blew the game LW as w/ his team up 23-20 he threw a terrible INT in the end zone. Dallas wound up driving for the GW TD on the subsequent drive. There were also two Redskins drives that started inside the Cowboys' 40-yd line, but only resulted in field goals. I have to believe the 'Skins offense is better than its shown so far. I also don't believe the Giants' defense is as good as it's looked. Though New York has allowed only 32 points in two games, they haven't forced any turnovers and have just two sacks.

MetLife Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Redskins the L3 seasons as they've lost by double digits every time. But I can't see that scenario playing out a fourth straight time. The L3 seasons have seen the Giants go just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 ATS following B2B SU wins. Again, I have to see Washington's third down conversion rate and red zone efficiency improving. WR DeSean Jackson is on track to play here. The whole Odell Beckham Jr vs. Josh Norman situation is overhyped and irrelevant to me here. The Giants have a big hole along the offensive line entering this game w/ RT Marshall Newhouse out. I expect the Redskins D-line to take advantage and lead the team to no worse than a cover (possible outright win).  10* Washington

10* Bowling Green (8:00 ET): Dino Babers left for Syracuse and it's been tough sledding for Bowling Green in year one under Mike Jinks. An 0-3 ATS record isn't about to get them any love from the oddsmakers here, especially w/ their only SU win coming by a single point over North Dakota. But I'll call for the best BGSU performance to date here in a revenge spot at Memphis. They're big dogs. Last year, as three-point home dogs, they lost a wild one to the Tigers, 44-41. But Memphis is a team set to decline in 2016 as well as they lost QB Paxton Lynch to the NFL. They haven't even been remotely tested yet as their first two opponents were SE Missouri State (FCS) and maybe the worst Power 5 team, Kansas, off a bye. Take the points in what I anticipate will be a close game.

When Memphis beat BGSU last year, it was the first of three consecutive wins by seven points or less. They were actually outgained in that game 579-541, but won in large part to forcing four turnovers. They trailed by a TD with just over seven minutes to go. Turnovers were also the story LW vs. Kansas as the Tigers forced SIX in the 43-7 triumph. They only outgained the Jayhawks 394-314, so the lopsided final doesn't seem fair. There has also been a big loss on this Tigers defense as senior OLB Jackson Dillon is officially done for the year. After two offseason knee procedures, Dillon tried to give it a go in the opener vs. SE Missouri State, but to no avail (played only eight snaps). Dillon started 31 games the past three seasons, registering 109 tackles including 20.5 for loss. He'll obviously be missed.

Bowling Green took on Ohio State in their season opener and that went as well as you'd expect. Then came the one-point win over North Dakota, which saw them overcome three turnovers. Last week, they turned it over FOUR times against Middle Tennessee, resulting in a 41-21 loss. Total yardage was basically even (436-433) and BG actually had more first downs (24-20). The problem was that they "forgot" to score in the second half. Twice the offense turned the ball over on downs after 50+ yard drives inside the red zone. One of the two second half INT's was thrown in the red zone, so that was three trips inside the MT 20-yd line that resulted in zero points. Another INT took place at midfield. Take away those turnovers and it was a much different game LW. It will be a much different Falcons team this week. 10* Bowling Green

10* UCLA (8:00 ET): The Bruins have lost eight straight times to Stanford, but it all sets up for them to break the losing streak this year. For starters, they're seemingly not drawing much support despite being at home Saturday night. The lookahead line for this game was UCLA -1, but w/ them already having dropped a game (at Texas A&M in overtime) and Stanford off an impressive win over USC last week, the role of favoritism has flipped. I like that as we're now able to grab some value. By the way, that loss to A&M no longer looks bad (Aggies are 3-0 SU), especially because it was in College Station. While 0-3 ATS, the Bruins got backdoored LW at BYU, a game they led 17-0, but gave up a late TD to win only 17-14. Take the points.

UCLA actually outgained A&M in that season opener, 468-442 w/ a 28-23 first down edge. Despite trailing 24-9 late in the third quarter, they had a chance to win the game in regulation. But they didn't and we know how that one turned out. Week 2 was a 42-21 victory over an improved UNLV squad where the Bruins offense racked up nearly 500 total yds (499) and 30 first downs. Then, like I said, last week saw they jump out to a 17-0 advantage on the road vs. BYU. Again, they finished w/ the edge in total yardage, 357-273. This defense, which returned nine starters, has been pretty solid in not allowing a single opponent to top 24 pts in regulation this year. I don't think there can be any dispute as to which side has the edge at QB in this matchup. Josh Rosen, though only a sophomore, certainly is the better option compared to Stanford's first year starter Ryan Burns.

Stanford is probably a program deserving of more respect. They won 12 games LY and destroyed Iowa in the Rose Bowl. But the schedule has been favorable so far as they drew a bye before hosting USC last week. Burns was asked to throw only 15 times in that game. A season opening win over Kansas State wasn't quite as dominant as the 26-13 final (covered as 11.5-pt favorites) suggests as the Cardinal offense failed to gain 300 total yards (only 272!). Kansas State had 335. Turnovers have been a huge story in the L7 Stanford-UCLA matchups w/ a +11 margin in favor of the Cardinal. But Stanford won't have the usual edge over UCLA at QB or in the trenches in this game. I'll call for HC Jim Mora to get his "signature" win in Westwood.  10* UCLA

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): The two also-rans from the NL Central are simply relegated to playing out the string at this point. Earlier this month at Great American Ballpark, the Reds took two of three from the Brewers. But since dropping the finale of that series, they've gone on to lose eight of nine (swept by the Cubs earlier this week). The Brew Crew took last night's opener, 5-4, a game they rallied from a 3-1 deficit and also turned a triple play. But Cincy still holds a 9-8 edge in head to head meetings this season. Their only win in the L9 games happened to come with the pitcher who is going today on the mound. Dan Straily again gives them the edge Saturday and thus this is a rare spot to back the lowly Reds, who had - before this losing streak - been one of the most profitable teams to play in the second half!

Straily isn't just the Reds most profitable pitcher. At +14.8 units for the year, he's currently tied w/ the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka for the MLB lead at the betting window! Consider that the team is 19-10 when he pitches and just 44-80 in all other games! His nine wins since the All-Star Break are tied for most among all NL starters. He has certainly had Milwaukee's number this season, going 2-0 w/ a 1.77 ERA in three starts. When he faced them earlier this month, he went eight innings, allowed only two runs (both on solo HR's) and three hits. Opponents are now batting just .220 off Straily for the year after he held Pittsburgh to three runs and five hits (6 IP) on Sunday. Again, that was the last time the Reds won a game.

Milwaukee counters w/ Taylor Jungmann and he simply is not a good option. He makes the jump from Double-A here, but has pitched plenty of times in the big leagues. Unfortunately, those efforts have not gone well. In his L10 starts here, he is 0-7 w/ a 9.35 ERA. He has been out of the rotation since April. In that first month of the season, the team lost four of his five starts overall. In three of the five starts, he finished w/ more walks than strikeouts, which is never good. Note that he was then demoted to Triple-A and struggled there as well, going 1-3 w/ a 9.87 ERA! That landed him down at Double-A where things did get better for him, but again, it's a big jump going from Double-A to the big leagues, even if the opponent is the last place Reds. WIth Cincy having its best pitcher go up against a shaky spot in the Milwaukee rotation, clearly this is a time to fire on the Reds. 10* Cincinnati

10* Under Penn State/Michigan (3:30 ET): Both of these teams come in at 3-0 Over, a fact that has made this O/U line much higher than it should be. Yes, Penn State comes in averaging 35.3 PPG (scored between 33 and 39 pts in all three games) and Michigan is averaging a whopping 53.0 PPG. But the respective final scores last week were unfair to both defenses. I'll get to that in a moment. Just know that this is the highest O/U line for either team this season, for Penn State, significantly so. Not only that, but this may be the highest O/U line for any PSU/Michigan game - ever! Note that last year's total was just 43 and only snuck Over when a late Wolverines TD made it 28-16. The year prior, it was only an 18-13 final (again in favor of UM). Take the Under. 

Let's get to those misleading finals last week, shall we? For Penn State, they actually held Temple to only 13 first downs, but still allowed 27 points. I was certainly happy to get the cover w/ the Owls, but it was lucky. Two Temple touchdown drives started inside the PSU 10-yard line as a result of turnovers. The Nittany Lions obviously struggled to stop the run against Pitt the week prior (341 yds allowed on 56 carries), but were much improved in that department against Temple, allowing just 38 yds on 28 carries. Michigan, for all their strengths, hasn't been that effective at running the ball the L2 weeks. They averaged just 3.5 YPC against UCF and Colorado.

Michigan's 45-28 win last week featured THREE non-offensive touchdowns. The Wolverines' special teams scored twice, on a blocked punt and a punt return. Colorado's defense also scored early in the game on a strip sack. So take away all those "extra scores" and the final looks a lot different. The Michigan defense had no problems in the first two games, holding Hawaii and UCF to just 17 total points. They've yet to allow more than 325 total yds in a game this year. Incredibly, the Over has now cashed in the L11 Michigan games dating back to last year. That's a streak that is "due" to end, in my opinion. Again, this will be a higher total than any of those previous 11 games. This is by far the toughest opponent - and defense - either team has faced so far this season. 10* Under Penn State/Michigan

10* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Yes, I'm well aware that Tennessee has not looked all that impressive so far. Hence, they've fallen from #9 to #14 in the rankings despite remaining unbeaten. There have been two uninspired wins, over Appalachian State and Ohio, that don't inspire a ton of confidence. In between, there was a 45-24 win over Virginia Tech, but they were actually outgained by the Hokies, 400-330, and probably only won because of forcing five turnovers. But motivation should be no issue here as the Vols look to snap the dreaded 11-game losing streak to Florida. Last year's loss was perhaps the most painful of the bunch as they outrushed the Gators 254-109 and led 27-14 w/ just over 10 minutes to go. But they then gave up two touchdowns, one of them a 63-yarder on a 4th down. As time expired, they missed a 55-yard FG. With this line now inside of a touchdown, I like UT to finally exact revenge.

Florida is w/o its starting QB, Luke Del Rio, here. Reportedly, it's a strained MCL, which means he'll be out 2-4 weeks probably. That's a really crushing blow to the Gators. Del Rio had completed over 61% of his pass attempts for 762 yards and six TD's so far. His replacement will be Purdue graduate transfer Austin Appleby. While Appleby has starting experience (11 games), much of it is not good as his record is just 2-9 SU in those games. He completed only 57.4% of his pass attempts last year and more concerning was the eight interceptions he tossed in 207 total pass attempts. I know Tennessee is down a few players on defense, most notably CB Cameron Sutton, but they are still a top 15 unit nationally. I see Florida really struggling to put points on the board Saturday afternoon in Neyland Stadium.

Much is being made of the Gators' defense here. They've allowed just 14 points in three games, but that's come at the expense of three pretty terrible offenses - UMass, Kentucky and North Texas. All three games also took place in Gainesville. I think UT QB Joshua Dobbs is going to have a good game here. Last week saw the Vols' offense gain a season-high 404 total yards. The last two years have seen Florida win by a combined two points. This is the biggest game of the Butch Jones' era so far. If there is one game that I would bet on Tennessee this year, it would be this one. 10* Tennessee

8* Pittsburgh (3:30 ET): Pitt is coming off its first loss of the season. It was a bit of an odd situation in Stillwater against Oklahoma State as there was a near two-hour weather delay in the fourth quarter w/ the score tied 38-38. OSU would go on to score the lone TD of the quarter, with just 1:28 to take the game. That result should certainly have the Panthers motivated, not that they needed any extra as this is a triple revenge spot vs. UNC. The Tar Heels are also 2-1 SU, but opened their season w/ a loss (33-24 to Georgia) only to come back and score a total of 104 points in wins over Illinois and James Madison. But they too have defensive issues, namely giving up nearly 500 total yds to JMU last week. Take the points here in what profiles as a pretty even matchup where an outright upset is a distinct possibility.

A big key here is the Pitt running game going against a very soft UNC run defense. Going back to the final three games of LY, the Tar Heels are giving up a stunning average of 325 rushing YPG. Obviously, a lot of that has to do w/ the embarrassing bowl performance against Baylor (625), but still they did just give up the fourth most rush yards to a FCS opponent this season (by an FBS foe). Pitt has RB James Conner back on the field this year after he was diagnosed w/ Lymphoma less than a year ago. His return is one of the great stories right now in College Football. Led by Conner (225 YPG), Pitt has run for more than 600 yards its last two games! So, suffice to say, I think we know what they'll try and do offensively here. Given UNC's inability to stop the run, they should have little difficulty. 

I mentioned earlier that this is a triple revenge spot for Pitt. As ACC opponents, they've yet to beat the Tar Heels w/ all three losses coming by seven points or less. Two years ago, here in Chapel Hill, they actually took an early 14-0 and led most of the way. But UNC scored a TD in the final minute to take the game 40-35 as a two-point favorite. Last year, was a 26-19 game on a Thursday night. I never thought Gene Chizik's defense was as "improved" as it was made it out to be LY and we're starting to see that this year. The Panthers are 8-4 SU in ACC road games all-time w/ the average win coming by more than a touchdown. They absolutely can win this game outright. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Purdue (12:00 ET): It goes w/o saying that this is a huge game in the tenure of Darell Hazell at West Lafayette. This is Hazell's fourth year here and so far he has only seven wins to his name. Four of those, including this year's season opener against Eastern Kentucky (45-21), have come against FCS foes. So, at home and coming off a bye here, the Boilermakers absolutely must take advantage of a Nevada team that's flying East for an uncharacteristic early start time. Purdue actually received the bulk of the dollars wagered in their last game, a 38-20 loss to Cincinnati. But that was a bit of a misleading final there as they actually were virtually even w/ the Bearcats in terms of total yardage (512-504), only to be undone by a -5 turnover ratio. The importance of this game will not be lost on Hazell and the staff. All but one of Hazell's wins here at Purdue have been in home games. Lay the points.

Nevada's season got off to a bit of a dicey start as they first allowed 27 pts in a close call against Cal Poly SLO (FCS team) and then 39 in a blowout loss at Notre Dame. That's not surprising considering the Wolfpack lost its entire front seven from a year ago! On the offensive side, they lost coordinator Nick Rolovich, who they'll see again next week as he's the new HC in Hawaii (that's another road game where the Wolfpack will be facing a rested foe). The team did bounce back LW w/ a dominating 38-14 over Buffalo in Reno (were 12-pt favorites). But I still look to the fact the offense ran for only 99 yds against Notre Dame and was actually outgained by Cal Poly SLO 445-363! I mentioned earlier how this is a RARE trip East for the program. It's actually just the fourth in the L6 years, but second in three weeks! Notre Dame didn't go well, nor did a 62-7 loss to Florida State in 2013. They did win at Buffalo, by three, last year.

Five turnovers will almost automatically lead to a loss in College Football. For Purdue two weeks ago, three INT's led to Cincinnati TD's. There was also a missed 28 yd FG. It has to be tough for Boilermaker fans to see two transfers currently starting for SEC teams at QB. But David Blough is someone who threw 5 TD's in an upset of Nebraska last year. This team also played Michigan State tough, on the road, last year. Purdue could be a dog in every Big 10 game this year, so this is a must-win. This team has experience (16 returning starters), rest, the schedule in their favor and should be supremely motivated. Dating back pre-Hazell (2003), Purdue has won 67% of its non-conf home games (26-13). Two defensive starters that missed the first two games - CB Da'Wan Hunte and DE Austin Larkin - are set to make their 2016 debuts here. The Boilermakers should win here - big. 8* Purdue

8* San Francisco (10:40 ET): Like the Mets, the Giants simply must take advantage of a favorable weekend matchup here as the other Wild Card competition (St. Louis) has to spend its weekend playing at Wrigley Field. It has been quite the miserable second half so far for San Francisco (24-39 overall). But they did win last night 2-1 over the Padres. The game was scoreless until the eighth when the Giants busted loose for four of their six hits. San Diego managed to put one on the board in the bottom of the inning, but it was not enough. I can't see any reason why the Padres would "circle the wagons" this weekend, thus even this very late start at Petco can't delay the inevitable, which is a Giants win. Believe it or not, San Fran was swept at home by San Diego earlier this month, so this series is a bit of payback.

Starting tonight for the Giants will be Albert Suarez. Even though he hasn't made it past the five inning mark since rejoining the rotation in late August, you have to feel for him having an 0-5 TSR over that time. That's because Suarez has allowed 3 ER or less in all five starts. In fact, he's yet to allow more than three in any of his 11 starts this season! One of those came against San Diego on 9.13 and he was a hard luck loser there. In five innings, he allowed just one run, but the Giants ended up losing that game, 6-4, in brutal fashion (allowed five runs in top of the ninth). So Suarez certainly did his job there and I think he can do the same again tonight. As a team, the Padres are batting a collective .193 the L7 games and have been held to three runs or less five times during that stretch.

San Diego is definitely "making it easy" on San Francisco this weekend by putting out a lineup that makes them the equivalent of a "Quadruple-A ballclub" in my opinion. There are a ton of recent callups on skipper Andy Green's card. However, on the mound, will be the veteran Edwin Jackson and he got rocked his last time out. Granted, the eight runs allowed came at Coors Field, but we're still looking at a pitcher w/ a 6.02 ERA and 1.582 WHIP for the season. His 11 starts have seen him give up 5+ runs five different times. This series sets up as a potential sweep for the road team. 8* San Francisco

10* USC (9:00 ET): The "bloom is off the rose" at USC and I understand this is NOT a good spot for Clay Helton's Trojans, at least on paper. Remember, this was a team I faded in the opener when they got humiliated 52-6 by Alabama. A 45-7 win at the Coliseum (over Utah State) proved to be nothing more than a "one-week mirage" as last week saw them get whipped again, this time 27-10 by Stanford. But I think it's important to note that USC's two losses have come against top five caliber opponents. From here on out, everything will be a drop in class. Yes, this is a revenge spot for Utah (USC won 42-24 LY as three-point home favorites, ending Utah's perfect season). Yes, this will be the first career start for Trojans QB Sam Darnold, a redshirt freshman, and it's a road game + a short week. But I look for USC to rally behind Darnold and take this game. Take the points.

Utah is 3-0 SU w/ a scare against rival BYU. They won that game 20-19 despite SIX turnovers. Last week, they avoided the dreaded "sandwich spot" by besting San Jose State 34-17 as 13.5-pt chalk. The key there was 10 sacks, a bit of a surprise considering the defense had just lost starting DE Kyle Fitts earlier in the week. Fitts is done for the season and I expect his absence to be felt moving forward. I also don't really trust this Utah offense, which has a first year starter at QB (transfer Troy Williams). Already, the Utes have fumbled the ball nine times (lost five) and Williams has thrown 4 INTs.

If one was to look at USC as a stock, this is clearly a "buy low" scenario. The offense can't be any worse than it was against either 'Bama or Stanford. Darnold is a "dual threat" QB, meaning he can run, and that should add another dimension to the Trojans' attack. The key, as it is in almost any CFB game, will be not turning the ball over. Defensively, I think USC will be all right here as long as they don't give up any big plays. LW, they held Stanford to just 109 passing yards. Because Utah has cracked the top 25, we've seen this line bet up during the week and that's created some value. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring affair, so that's yet another reason to back the underdog. 10* USC

8* TCU (8:00 ET): At 0-3 ATS so far, TCU has clearly failed to impress in the early part of the season. They struggled w/ a FCS opponent (South Dakota) in the opener (won 59-41) and then lost outright at home to Arkansas (41-38, -10) the following week. Last week was probably their "best" effort to date, a 41-20 win over Iowa State, but they still failed to cover the 24.5-pt spot. This week, the Horned Frogs hit the road for the 1st time to play in-state rival SMU. While the spread is again large, I think it offers substantial value considering that the lookahead line for this matchup was nearly four touchdowns and now we can lay less than three. Look for Gary Patterson to get the most complete performance out of his team to date and for TCU to win this one "going away." Lay the points. 

SMU is off a bit of a rocky showing against a FCS foe themselves. Last week, they hosted lightly regarded Liberty and won only 29-14. That game was much closer than the final score indicated as the Mustangs scored 10 points in the final minute. After kicking a FG to go up 22-14 (still one-score game), they returned an INT for a TD w/ 18 seconds left. That play did affect the ATS outcome for some bettors. The fact that Liberty turned the ball over four times in that game and were still "tooth and nail" is not a good sign at all for SMU here. Second year HC Chad Morris figures to have this team improved once the AAC portion of the schedule hits, but this is a big step up in class. Consider that LY saw the Mustangs head into Ft. Worth as 37-point underdogs and lose 56-37. The defense allowed 720 yards(!) and while it actually did get close for awhile, TCU initially led 42-17. Even after factoring in the change in venue, the spread should not have moved this much.

Overall, SMU has lost the L3 meetings w/ TCU by an average of 35.3 points per game. That includes 48-17 in '13 and 56-0 in '14. Despite TCU's defense allowing a ghastly 34 PPG thus far, I see a team that's getting better. Despite trailing much of the way against Arkansas, they actually outgained the Hogs in that game, 572-403. A -2 turnover margin really hurt them there (one INT returned for a TD). Against ISU last week, they led 41-10 early in the 4Q. Clearly, there's nothing wrong with this offense (46 pts & 572 yards per game!) and I think the defense makes enough stops to cover this spread w/ "room to spare." 8* TCU

8* Under Royals/Tigers (7:10 ET): The playoff dreams of Kansas City, the two time reigning AL Champs and LY's World Series winner, are all but dead. Getting swept in Cleveland officially eliminated them from the division race and now they're 5.5 gms back for the Wild Card w/ only nine left to play. That Indians sweep of the Royals also pretty much ended any hope Detroit had of winning the Central as they remain seven back of the Tribe w/ 10 to play. However, they did sweep the Twins in the previous series, including a doubleheader yday, and are now in position to get that second Wild Card as they have a half game lead on Baltimore. There are also two teams (Houston & Seattle) within two games and another (Yankees) within three. Thus, the stakes remain high this weekend in the Motor City and I'm calling for the series opener to stay Under the total.

Tonight's pitching matchup features two of the most profitable hurlers to bet on in all of baseball. Detroit's Michael Fulmer is in the top 10 at +11.2 units for the year. He's off a rough outing in Cleveland (exactly one week ago), but has yet to have B2B poor outings this season. In fact, there has yet to be B2B outings where Fulmer has allowed more than 3 ER. At home, his WHIP is 0.966 and the Under is 5-2. He has faced KC three times this season and has a 2.75 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in those outings w/ the Under cashing in each of the last two. The last one came three weeks ago as he allowed just 3 ER in 6 IP (Tigers lost 5-2). Tigers pitching has allowed two runs or fewer in four of the last five games and opponents are batting just .216 against them the L7. I think Fulmer can keep that trend going against a KC lineup that has been w/o some key contributors for some time now.

Without question, Danny Duffy has been the Royals most reliable starter in 2016. He's 12-2 in 24 starts (17-7 TSR) and there was a time when the team only won when he was pitching. His L3 starts have all gone Over, but that's only because either the bullpen allowed additional runs or the offense uncharacteristically showed up. Last time out, it was the latter in a 10-3 win over the White Sox where Duffy went seven strong innings. But in the Cleveland series, KC's offense managed only six runs total in three games. Overall, Duffy has allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his previous 12 starts. He has 181 strikeouts on the year. This will be his fifth time facing the Tigers and while the previous four have brought mixed results, the last time he pitched here at Comerica Park, he allowed just one run and three hits in 7 2/3 IP! Every game in the series w/ the Indians went Under for the Royals. 8* Under Royals/Tigers

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Lady luck appears to be on the Mets' collective shoulder right now as last night saw them pull out a game in stunning fashion. After blowing a 4-3 lead in the top of the eighth, they managed to tie the game up in the bottom of the ninth w/ a Jose Reyes' home run. Then, after giving up two runs in the top of the 11th, Asdrubal Cabrera came up and won the the game on a three-run walkoff. The Mets had been 0-63 this season when trailing after eight innings prior to last night. They used a franchise record 27 players in the come from behind victory, which marked the first time in HISTORY that a team erased a pair of 2+ run deficits in the 9th inning or later w/ HR's. While there's been a pitching change here to rookie Gabriel Ynoa (Steven Matz scratched), I believe the Metropolitans still have enough left in the tank to beat the Phillies, whose -149 run differential is a NL-worst.

The pitching change should now gives us a more favorable line and that's great b/c we're also going with the better team. Yes, the Mets were just swept here at home by lowly Atlanta in the previous series. But last night's win may mark a turning point in their season. They and the Giants remain tied for the two Wild Card spots in the NL, one-half game ahead of St. Louis. With the Cards having to play at Chicago (Cubs) this weekend, New York must take advantage of a far more favorable opponent. The rookie Ynoa has made just one start and he allowed only one run and four hits (in 4 2/3 innings) against another weak opponent, Minnesota. Keep in mind that the Phillies are the lowest scoring team in baseball by a wide margin. They also rank 29th in OBP, team batting average and slugging. Ynoa also did look very good at Triple-A Las Vegas (12-5 record) and that's in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

The Phils had just swept the White Sox in a quick, two-game IL set earlier this week. But this team should feel very fortunate to have 69 wins this year as their run differential indicates a 59-win pace, which makes them the biggest overachiever besides Texas in all of MLB. Starter Jeremy Hellickson has looked sharp his L2 starts, but both came at home. On the road, he has a 4.08 ERA. Last time out may have been the best Hellickson has ever looked, a three-hit shutout vs. Miami, but considering it was the second straight start he threw 100+ pitches, I expect regression to take place here. His 7.58 career ERA vs. the Mets is his highest against any opponent he's started at least two times against. As a ML road dog in the +150 to +175 range, the Phils are only 3-11 this season. 8* NY Mets

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers are officially rolling. They just took two of three from the Giants in what was a critical series. That gives them a six-game edge in the NL West, which basically means they're winning this division. It's a division that includes a Colorado team that might be better than its overall record (73-79, +17 run diff), but park adjustments must be considered in this matchup. The Rockies, of course, play their home games at Coors Field, which is home to - on average - the highest scoring games in all of baseball. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is among the lowest scoring venues in the game (7.5 rpg). Thus, I give a big edge to the home team in this one as Colorado's offense is likely to take a severe hit.

Now the Rockies do have a pitcher (Tyler Chatwood) going that has a 9-2 TSR w/ a 1.77 ERA in road starts. But Chatwood's WHIP (1.136) isn't that much lower than the ERA in those road starts, so there's been some good fortune in accruing that TSR. I will concede that Chatwood did pitch well here back on June 6th. But he comes into tonight having allowed 6+ runs in three of his last four starts and one of those was at Philadelphia, who has one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. The last three seasons have seen the Rockies go just 85-151 on the road, including 32-42 this year. Chatwood has lost twice to the Dodgers this year, both times at home. 

I'm not going to even bother running through the numbers from Brett Anderson's first two starts for the Dodgers. Needless to say, they are ugly. But I feel that he can rebound against a team whose offensive production drops about two full runs per game on the road compared to at home. The Rockies are also probably a little "full of themselves" after beating St. Louis 11-1 on Wednesday. LA is simply the better team here. Note that Anderson hasn't worked in a month, so this can be fresh start for him. Even with the division essentially "in the bag" at this point, the Dodgers still have something to play for, that being homefield advantage in a potential LDS matchup with Washington. In their last visit to Chavez Ravine (July), Colorado was swept and scored just two runs in three games. 8* LA Dodgers

10* 1st Half Houston (8:25 ET): Please note that this is a 1st half play only where I am taking the Texans. As you know, I "rolled the dice" and went w/ the Patriots as a 1H play in Wk 1. Despite starting Jimmy Garoppolo against the heavily favored Cardinals, the Pats went into the halftime break w/ a 10-7 edge and wound up taking the game outright, 23-21.  In Wk 2, Garoppolo and the team looked even better against the division rival Dolphins. The QB threw three first half TD passes en route to New England entering halftime w/ a massive 24-3 edge at home. But, as you now know, all did not end well. Garoppolo suffered a shoulder injury and while the Pats had a big enough lead to hold on for a (31-24) victory, that means rookie Jacoby Brissett has been thrust into the starter's role for Week 3.

Clearly, the Tom Brady suspension could now catch up with the Patriots. Yes, Garoppolo came in and played remarkably well the last two weeks. But consider that he had a full summer to prepare for Arizona. Miami is a bad team. Now you're asking a rookie to make his first career start, on a short week no less, against a good defense. Through two games, the Texans have allowed just 26 points (3rd best) and have the most sacks (9). They have JJ Watt, in case you forgot. Last week, this defense held Kansas City to just a field goal in the first half. The Chiefs first four drives resulted in eight yards - total.  In other words, don't expect Brissett to have the same kind of initial success that Garoppolo did. While the rookie did complete six of nine pass attempts for 92 yards last week, the offense scored only a single TD under his direction.

Obviously, New England's record under Belichick when priced as an underdog must be respected here. (Note: I'm not convinced they will close as a dog). But I still believe Houston will go into halftime with the lead. The defense has not given up a touchdown in six quarters. The offense, with Brock Osweiler at the helm, should be able to move the ball on a Patriots defense which is w/o the suspended Rob Ninkovich. Note Ryan Tannehill was able to throw for nearly 400 yds last week w/ 3 second half TD's against NE. I don't buy the reports that Garropolo might play here. That's a total decoy. I look for Brissett to struggle and the Texans to lead at the half. 10* 1st Half Houston

10* Over Angels/Astros (8:10 ET): A sweep of the lowly A's has Houston just one game back of Baltimore for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. This is an incredibly tightly packed race w/ six teams separated by 3.5 games. The Angels are absolutely not one of those six teams, so this is certainly a friendly scheduling stretch that the 'Stros need to continue to take advantage of. Not to "pat myself on the back," but I was extremely low on the Angels coming into 2016, thus I'm not the least bit surprised to see them currently sitting 20 games below .500. They did "upset" Texas last night, but prior to that had dropped 11 of 14. Houston is a dominant 11-1 in head to head matchups this year, including a perfect 6-0 at Minute Maid Park. That said, Over is the play here as I don't see either of tonight's starters as being particularly strong.

Michael Fiers is the starter for Houston tonight. While he owns an 11-4 TSR at home this year, his ERA and WHIP are 4.00 and 1.272 respectively. His last time pitching here, he allowed seven runs (in just 2 1/3 IP) in a loss to the Cubs. He bounced back w/ six shutout innings at Seattle Saturday, but I highly doubt we'll see anything close to a duplication of that performance. Fiers was the pitcher of record in the Astros' lone loss to the Angels this year as he allowed seven runs in just 3 2/3 IP back in May. In four career appearances vs. LA, his ERA is 4.92. Note that 18 of Fiers' 28 starts this season have gone Over the total. No matter how bad the Angels might be, facing Mike Trout is always dangerous. 

This series actually features two of the AL's best hitters, Trout and Houston's Jose Altuve. Ricky Nolasco is the one who will have to deal w/ Altuve tonight. Like Fiers, Nolasco is coming off a strong effort as he blanked Toronto for six innings and gave up only five hits. But I also anticipate regression w/ him. That last time out marked just the second time in nine starts that the Angels won w/ Nolasco on the mound (he was traded here from Minnesota in early August, part of the Santana deal). He has a 4.78 ERA this season. In eight career appearances vs. Houston, his ERA is 4.38. 10* Over Angels/Astros

8* 1st Half Georgia Tech (7:30 ET): Please note that this is a 1st Half play only where I'm taking the points w/ Georgia Tech. The story here is that the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this ACC rivalry. That would seem to favor the Yellow Jackets right there, but the oddsmakers certainly don't, installing them as big home underdogs for this Thursday night matchup. Normally, I might be "all over" the home dog in this situation, but I don't think GT is getting enough points - for the game that is. The 1st half line, on the other hand, offers strong value as the number is more than half the full game line. Take the points here as I think the Yellow Jackets certainly keep this one close for a half and may very well go into the break w/ the outright lead! 

Certainly, this first half won't be as easy here as it was last week for #5 Clemson. A 45-0 lead at the break led to overmatched South Carolina State simply yelling "mercy" and the teams elected to play a shortened second half (12 min quarters). It ended up being a 59-0 victory for the Tigers. However, I'm not sure that game does much for a team that largely "sleepwalked" past its first two opponents. It was an ugly opener against Auburn (won 19-13) on the road, followed by a game w/ Troy (won 30-24) that was way too close for comfort. The respective scores at halftime of those games were: and 10-3 and 13-10. Bobby Dodd Stadium has not been kind to Clemson in the past as they haven't won here in Atlanta since '03. It's also the site of their last regular season loss (2014), a game where QB DeShaun Watson (then a freshman) tore his ACL. Then, there's also the matter that this is a giant lookahead spot for the Tigers; they have a top 10 showdown w/ Louisville looming next week.

Georgia Tech turned in a very complete performance last week in dismantling Vanderbilt 38-7 as six-point favorites. They outgained the Commies 511-275 in the process. That brings GT to 3-0, so they've already matched LY's total # of wins. Paul Johnson's team was an obvious candidate to improve this season as LY saw them suffer a mind-blowing five losses by a TD or less. They've already won one close game this year, over an improved BC squad. The big stunner in LY's tussle w/ Clemson was GT's triple option being held to only 77 yds rushing! This year, the offense appears to be a bit more dynamic w/ the passing attack seemingly much improved. Also, the Yellow Jackets defense ranks 7th nationally in scoring (10.3 PPG allowed) and after giving up a TD on the opening drive LW, they held Vandy to just 200 total yds the rest of the way. I see the home dog making a game of this for at least a half - if not longer. 8* 1st Half Georgia Tech

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Over the past week, the Indians have done a great job at seemingly putting the division (AL Central) race "to bed." Dating back to last Friday, they've gone 4-1 against the Tigers and Royals. I had them in Tuesday's series opener vs. KC, a game they ended up winning 2-1. Yesterday, with Corey Kluber on the hill, they won another one-run game, 4-3 (outhit the Royals 13-7). That result not only dropped Cleveland's magic number (to win the Central) to 5, but it officially eliminated KC (now 77-75) from playoff contention. Therefore, there's a real question of motivation for the road underdog in this situation. Last year's World Series champs have been bad on the road much of this year anyway (32-45) and I've made the case many times that they're not as good as their overall record (-29 run diff). Cleveland is 12-3 on the money line this season as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Go with them.

Not all the news has been good over the last week in Cleveland. As I mentioned in Tuesday's analysis, they'll have to go the rest of the way w/o TWO front line starters - Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. That puts more pressure on guys like tonight's starter Mike Clevinger. I realize that he has not gone very deep into games, but in three September starts, Clevinger has allowed just 3 ER in 9 2/3 IP. He's given up just seven hits as well. That works out to a 2.79 ERA and 1.241 WHIP. The lineup he'll be facing tonight is not strong as the Royals have scored just four runs total in this series. Back to the homefield edge, Cleveland is 8-1 at home this year vs. KC.

Jason Vargas is the starter tonight for the Royals. This is just his 2nd time starting since coming back from Tommy John surgery. On Saturday, he made his official return and threw just three innings against the White Sox and gave up one run on two hits. In 12 career starts vs. the Indians, Vargas has a 4.70 ERA. The trouble for him here is that the Tribe are one of them top scoring home teams in all of baseball at 5.7 rpg. They are batting a collective .290 this season at Progressive Field. As a road underdog of +125 to +175 this year, the Royals are a lousy 8-25. 8* Cleveland

8* Over Giants/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The front ends of the respective rotations have kept the first two games of this series very low scoring. It was the much ballyhooed Bumgarner vs. Kershaw matchup in Monday's series opener w/ the Dodgers coming out on top 2-1 thanks to a ninth inning rally. But there was no ninth inning rally last night as they fell 2-0 in a game started by Johnny Cueto and Rich Hill. Tonight, it will be Matt Moore and Kenta Maeda, yet another quality pitching matchup on paper, though not as strong as Bumgarner vs. Kershaw or Cueto vs. Hill. So, I'm going to go ahead and project this one to finish Over the total as I think the two offenses will "wake up" following the last two nights of dormant production.

Moore is 4-1 his L5 starts, but has a 6.13 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in the last three. That's basically owed to one bad showing at Coors Field, but he didn't make it very deep into his last start (just five innings) and gave up seven hits and three walks (two runs allowed).  That game marked the last time the Giants offense did anything as they scored eight runs for Moore. I wouldn't expect that kind of support here, but they can't keep scoring two runs or less like they have each of the L4 games. Moore has dominated the Dodgers the last two times he faced them, including coming one out shy of a CG shutout last month. But earlier in the year, he did allow seven runs to them in just 4 1/3 IP. Maybe it won't be that bad this time around, but it won't be as good as the previous two times either.

Maeda has won both of his starts against the Giants this year, but in doing so, he's put a lot of runners on base (17 in 12 IP). Maeda rarely allows more than 3 ER, but he also tends to not go that deep into games. In fact, he hasn't lasted longer than 6 1/3 innings in any start since the All-Star Break. That leaves things up to the Dodgers bullpen. I look at the fact that the Over is 14-14 in all Maeda starts this year and realize that the 'pen has not been all that kind to him. The Over is 7-4 his L11 starts overall. Dodger Stadium is one of the lowest scoring venues in the sport, but tonight's number is too low. 8* Over Giants/Dodgers

8* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Remember what I said in yday's analysis about these teams basically being even, despite the (now-14 game) gap in the standings. Well, that's certainly not the case when Masahiro Tanaka is on the mound for the Yankees. Tanaka, his team's best starter by far, has turned in six consecutive quality outings where he's allowed 2 ER or fewer. One of the more impressive performances during that stretch came against these Rays on 9.10 as he allowed just one run on five hits in 7 1/3 IP. He also set a season-high w/ 10 strikeouts. Following that up w/ another strong effort against Boston, Tanaka now has a 1.90 ERA and 0.909 WHIP his L7 starts. He has NEVER lost to the Rays in seven tries (7-0 TSR) thanks to a 2.42 ERA and 0.724 WHIP. He is the difference maker in this one.

The Yanks kept their fleeting playoff hopes alive w/ a 5-3 win yday. They were coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of Boston over the weekend. A four-run seventh was all the Pinstripes needed on Tuesday and while that may have contributed to me losing my Under bet (Rays scored one run in bottom of the eighth to put it over), it's actually an encouraging sign for today. Gary Sanchez continues to be the talk of the Bronx w/ 17 HR's in 42 games. Now only 3.5 games back of Baltimore (who has lost each of the L2 days), the Yankees clearly have motivation here. I can't say the same for Tampa Bay, who might be better than their record, but they're also 22 games below .500 and done for the season. TB is 33-52 off a loss this season.  

We figure that the Rays will struggle against Tanaka tonight, but what about the Yankees against Alex Cobb? Well, in the past they have struggled against Cobb (2.13 ERA, 0.895 WHIP in 11 career starts vs. NY). But the Yanks have still won 6 of those 11 games and did get to him on 9.8 for four runs and nine hits in six innings. They won that game, 5-4. Cobb did follow that up w/ a strong effort in Toronto, just his third start since coming back from Tommy John surgery. It will be interesting to see how he holds up in these final two weeks of the season. Something else to consider is that Rays hitters have struck out an alarming 65 times the L6 games. 8* NY Yankees

8* Under Red Sox/Orioles (7:05 ET): Boston has come to Camden Yards and really taken control of the AL East race. With a pair of wins over Baltimore, it's now a five game discrepancy between the two teams in the standings. (Toronto is still four games back). I played the Under in Monday's opener, which like yday was a 5-2 final. In my analysis there, I talked about how run differential clearly says the Red Sox are the best team in the division as they are at +182 while the Blue Jays are +84 and the Orioles are just +21. That's been reinforced by the results of this series so far, but I still believe Under is the way to go here, especially w/ tonight seeing the highest total of the series.

I'm not sure why tonight's total is higher than the previous two games, given the identical 5-2 scores that have come in. Perhaps the oddsmakers are looking at the YTD numbers of both of Wednesday's starters - Clay Buchholz and Ubaldo Jimenez - but both have pitched well recently. Buchholz has allowed 2 ER or less in four of his last five starts. Last time out, he held the Yankees to two runs in six innings. This will be Buchholz's first time facing Baltimore since April and he's catching them at an opportune time. The O's have scored exactly two runs in four consecutive games. Also, the Under is 9-2 this season at Camden Yards when the O/U line is either 9 or 9.5.

As for Jimenez, he comes in w/ a spectacular 0.739 WHIP his past three starts. He did allow 4 ER his last time out, but before that had allowed 3 ER or less five straight times w/ four consecutive quality starts. A complete game effort vs. Tampa Bay on September 5th saw him somehow allow three runs on only two hits (only walked one batter). He's since gone 7 IP in B2B outings and while he did give up four runs last time (2 HR's allowed), he didn't walk anybody. The last four meetings between these two clubs have all stayed Under and 9 of the last 10 have seen 10 or fewer runs scored!  8* Under Red Sox/Orioles

10* Toronto (3:40 ET): Entering this very important series, the Blue Jays held a two-game lead over the Mariners in the Wild Card chase. You can now make it a four game advantage. Toronto has come to Safeco Field and taken the first two games, 3-2 and 10-2. They are now the top Wild Card, one game ahead of Baltimore. Crazy as it may seem, the Jays are favored this afternoon to come in and make it a clean sweep. This despite going up against Felix Hernandez! But King Felix didn't fare so well his last time out. As a matter of fact, two of his previous three starts have not been good. Early money has moved in on Toronto here and they are 32-23 in day games. I'm on them. 

I'm going to go back to a point I've made before. The Blue Jays, who were carried by a league-leading offense last year, are getting great pitching in 2016. Granted, the offense still ranks 7th in all of MLB in runs scored. But they've also allowed the second fewest number of runs among AL teams, trailing only Cleveland. Today's starter Aaron Sanchez simply loves to pitch "South of the border" (i.e. on the road) where he's gone 8-1 in 15 starts w/ a 2.71 ERA and 1.124 WHIP. His last start left a bit to be desired, but that was against Boston, who is this year's top offensive team. Sanchez has not faced Seattle this year, but did hold them to two runs in 6 2/3 IP in his one start against them in 2015. A blister issue that has plagued him in the second half has reportedly been solved. The Seattle offense has scored two runs or less in five of the past six games.

Three times in his last four starts, Felix Hernandez has given up six runs. That's not a good sign.  The one time he didn't was against Oakland, who is one of the bottom two teams in the American League. I look for King Felix's struggles to continue today. He has not faced Toronto this year, but has a 4.39 ERA in 15 career starts against them. I know this price looks very tempting, but if something looks "too good to be true," then you know what that typically means. One more thing to consider is that the Blue Jays have had a ton of fan support here at Safeco this week. 10* Toronto

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): I went w/ the Dodgers last night and while they certainly couldn't seem to solve Madison Bumgarner, they ended up prevailing anyway, 2-1. I'll take it and come right back w/ Dodger Blue yet again tonight. What a crippling loss that was last night for Giants' fans. As stated in yday's analysis, it has simply been a miserable second half for San Fran as they are now 22-38 since the All-Star Break. They had the best record in baseball going into the Break and now are in danger of missing the playoffs altogether! (They enter Tuesday tied w/ St. Louis for the 2nd Wild Card). The Giants' bullpen has obviously been a problem, but so too has an offense that produced only three hits in last night's loss. The Dodgers are simply the better team at this point.

Losing a game where your ace delivers seven shutout innings of one-hit ball is not good. In the final two innings, the Giants bullpen gave up five hits, throwing away what Bumgarner had done, and lost the game in the bottom of the ninth. It was the ninth time this season that the Giants lost a game they led after eight innings. That's a franchise record, by the way. The offense has been scuffling for some time now, particularly when they have RISP. In the second half, they are batting just .225 in that situation and in 47 of 59 games, they have collected three or fewer hits (w/ RISP). Last night's lone run scored came on a wild pitch after an infield single by Nunez, who then advanced two more bases after a steal and errant throw. So, it's been a real struggle to put runs on the board for San Fran, who has scored two runs or fewer in five of its last eight games (just three total in L3). This visit to Chavez Ravine isn't likely to correct these offensive issues; visiting teams are averaging just 3.3 rpg here at Dodger Stadium w/ a .218 batting average this season.

The Giants do have Johnny Cueto going tonight, but the Dodgers have Rich Hill. Since coming over from the A's, Hill has been awesome. His last three starts have seen him deliver a 1.96 ERA and ridiculous 0.436 WHIP! He did give up four runs in his last start, but that was in Arizona, a real hitter's park. His three starts before that, he didn't even allow a single run and that includes six shutout innings of five hit ball opposite Cueto and the Giants back on 8.24. Remember that on 9.10, he was pulled after seven innings despite having a no-hitter going in Miami. These are two teams trending in opposite directions right now as the Dodgers have won 18 of 28 while the Giants have lost 16 of 27.  8* LA Dodgers