8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): The Red Sox just aren’t very good in 2020 and their fortune doesn’t figure to change much Wednesday in this matchup with Blake Snell and the Rays. Tampa came into Fenway Park and won 8-2 on Tuesday, their 4th win in a row and 5th in the last 6 games. One big six-run inning was all that they needed. They’ve now scored 8 runs in B2B games to open the series and had a season-high 16 hits in Monday’s opener. These two AL East rivals are heading in opposite directions right now.

Boston has lost 7 of its last 10 games, landing them in last place in the division. They are 1-3 vs. Tampa Bay this year having allowed 5+ runs in every game. Since the start of last season, they are just 8-15 vs. the Rays. Zach Godley will get the starting nod Wednesday for the Red Sox and he has a 6.14 ERA and 1.774 WHIP after two starts. The team has lost them both. Going back to last season, Godley has an 0-6 TSR L6 starts and hasn’t gone longer than four innings in any of them. Boston’s bullpen isn’t very good either.

Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young Winner for the Rays, has yet to record a decision in any of his three 2020 outings. None of them have seen him pitch more than three innings. Two of the three, he didn’t allow any runs. He has said he’d like to work as many as five innings tonight. He should pitch well, no matter how deep into the game he goes. Boston is hitting just .202 in games vs. southpaw starters. The Red Sox have only been a ML home dog of +125 to +175 twice in the last three seasons. They lost both times. 8* Tampa Bay

7* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Morale may be pretty low right now in the City of Brotherly Love (at least there’s the Flyers!) after another head-scratching loss last night. But I just can’t see the Phillies losing two in a row to the Orioles at home. The Phils had a three-run lead Tuesday and were still ahead going into the ninth. It ended up being a 10-9 defeat in extra innings as the team fell to 5-7 despite playing every game but two at home. But they’ve only been outscored by 4 runs all year and today should be a positive result. 

Baltimore won only 54 games last year and 47 the year before that. Those win totals would be incredible for 2020, but remember those were 162-game seasons. They were outscored by 522 runs the previous two seasons and were widely expected to be bad again this year. But the O’s are surprising 8-7 following three straight wins, two of which have seen them score 10+ runs. But asking them to win more than three in a row is a tall order. They are just 2-8 the L3 seasons when on a win streak of three or more games. This includes a 4-0 loss to Miami last week. 

Tonight’s starting pitching matchup seems to be heavily titled in the favor of the Phillies. Zach Eflin allowed just two unearned runs in his first start, which was a 5-4 win over the Yankees as a +125 ML dog. Wade LeBlanc started for Baltimore three times so far and has a 6.91 ERA. He was shelled both times on the road, giving up a total of 10 runs in 9 IP. Remember I had the Phils two days ago and they jumped out to a 13-1 lead vs. Atlanta, holding on for the victory. 7* Philadelphia

10* Colorado (5:30 ET): I just don’t see Arizona as being capable of making this into a competitive series. Thus, I’ll be backing the Avalanche here in Game 1. I’ve previously espoused the virtues of the Avs many times. While they failed to come through for me Saturday against Vegas, a loss which cost them the #1 seed in the Western Conference, they did get the job done against Dallas in 4-0 fashion. They went 2-0-1 in the round robin format, outshooting and out-possessing each opponent. They are, at least on paper, the West’s best team. 

The Coyotes entered the playoffs as an 11-seed. I did think they got a favorable draw in the qualification series with Nashville, whom they ousted in just four games. It was the franchise’s first series win since 2012. That it came right after their GM abandoned them had to feel good. But the ‘Yotes are in over their head now in the Round of 16. Of all 12 playoff teams in the Western side of the draw, they scored the second fewest goals (ahead of only Dallas). 

The key to the series for Arizona is going to be goalie Darcy Keumper, who was lights out against the Predators. He had a .933 save percentage in the four games, pretty remarkable considering he faced 163 shots. That was the most shots faced by any goalie in the previous round. Unfortunately for Keumper, Colorado averaged 37.7 shots/game in the round-robin and they led the Western Conf in goals during the regular season. Arizona allowed 11 goals in four games last round while the Avs allowed just five in three games. 10* Colorado

6* Vegas (10:35 ET): Chicago has taken full advantage of the NHL’s 24-team bubble. Making the playoffs is something that would NOT have happened under ordinary circumstances. After all, the Blackhawks were in last place in the Central at the time of the stoppage. But by taking three of four from Edmonton in the qualification series, here they are in the Round of 16. But all that earned them was a date with now top-seeded Vegas and unlike Edmonton, the Golden Knights are hitting their stride at the right time. 

One could also say the Knights have taken advantage of this unique format. While they were leading the Pacific Division at the time of the stoppage, they would not have been the West’s #1 overall seed. They are now though, thanks to going 3-0 in round robin play. They averaged 5.0 goals in the three wins. Another thing worth noting is how the Golden Knights have terrorized the Blackhawks throughout their existence. They’ve won 9 of 10 all-time meetings. 

The Blackhawks are a 12-seed that probably shouldn’t be here. They had just 72 points. That’s the fewest of any team left with the exception of Montreal, the original 12-seed from the East that can at least claim a top tier goaltender. Here in the playoffs, they’ve been outshot. Not the case with Vegas, who is only allowing 26.3 shots per game since the restart. Keep in mind that the Knights swept their round robin games despite not having the services of Max Pacioretty, who led the team in goals/points in the reg season. He’s now expected back for Game 1.  6* Vegas

10* LA Angels (9:40 ET): Now that the A’s nine-game win streak is over (lost 10-9 to the Angels last night), it’s probably an opportune time to fade them. It was a pretty amazing comeback for the Angels yesterday, led by two Mike Trout home runs, as they were able to rally from an early five-run deficit. While the Halos are only 6-11 on the year, what’s interesting about them is they’ve been ML favorites in 10 of their games so far. They were underdogs yday, but are 45-25 as home favorites of -125 to -175 L3 seasons.

Last Thursday in Seattle, Dylan Bundy threw the first complete game for the Angels’ rotation going all the way back to 2018. I took him in that spot and it ended up being a 6-1 win behind Bundy’s 10 strikeouts. He allowed only one run on four hits. Bundy, who came over from Baltimore in the offseason, is off to a great start with his new club as he has a 2.08 ERA and 0.60 WHIP through three starts. 

I think it speaks volumes that the Angels are favored in this game. Oddsmakers pretty clearly have a high opinion of them and think they’re better than their record. Oakland is probably going to be without Ramon Laureano for this one as he’s bound to be suspended for his role in the brawl with Houston over the weekend. A’s starter Michael Fiers does have a 3-0 TSR, but his ERA is 5.63 and his WHIP is 1.312. Those numbers pale in comparison to Bundy’s. Fiers also has a 5.15 ERA in 15 career appearances vs. LA. I’ve had success taking the Angels this year and will definitely do so tonight. 10* LA Angels

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians were forced to make a pitching change for Tuesday’s contest with the Cubs as Adam Plutko will replace Mike Clevinger. Reason being Clevinger violated protocol by going out with reliever Zach Plesac for a “night on the town” in Chicago. The thing is, this isn’t much of a big deal - at least in the interim. Pitching has been fantastic for Cleveland thus far and while he’s made only one start compared to Clevinger’s three, Plutko actually has the superior numbers this season. 

Plutko’s only prior start vs. 7/28 vs. the White Sox, whom he held to two runs on just five hits. Both runs allowed were solo homers. As mentioned above, Indians’ pitching has been ridiculous so far with a MLB-leading 2.04 ERA and opponents batting just .188. The Tribe haven’t allowed more than five runs in any game this year. To put things in some perspective, Cleveland has played four MORE games than the Cubs yet has allowed 21 FEWER runs! 

The Indians and Cubs have the same number of wins (10) but the latter has only three losses due to their weekend series against St. Louis being called off due to COVID-19 concerns (with the Cardinals). So now there’s an issue of rust after the Cubs had to sit around all weekend. Jon Lester starts and while he’s been lights out his first two starts, the margin for error is slim when facing anyone on this Cleveland staff. If it comes down the bullpens, that’s a huge edge for the Indians. Don’t discount the “revenge factor” from the 2016 World Series either. The Indians are 6-2 at home thus far and have won five of their last six games overall. The Cubs last game (Thursday) saw them get beat 13-2 .. by the Royals. 8* Cleveland

8* Memphis (5:05 ET): After picking up a “statement” win over Toronto (122-100!) on Friday, the Celtics were able to avoid any kind of letdown in their next game. Granted, they needed OT to defeat Orlando on Sunday 122-119 and they failed to cover as 8.5-point chalk. Still, locked in as the the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics will take that result. However, I do see motivation being an issue the rest of the way, certainly relative to their opponents for today’s game. 

While Boston’s playoff position is set, Memphis’ fate continues to hang in the balance. A 1-5 start here in Orlando has the Grizzlies hanging on by a thread to the 8-seed in the Western Conference. Three teams (Portland, Phoenix, San Antonio) are within one game of them and they still need a win just to clinch a place in Saturday’s “play-in game” (which has the potential to be a 2-game series) for the final playoff spot. A win here would take all the pressure off for the regular season finale (Thursday vs. Milwaukee). I’m taking the points. 

Save for a 121-92 win against Oklahoma City last Friday, where I had them, the Grizzlies have been struggling to find their shot here in the bubble. They lost Jaren Jackson Jr for the rest of the season and the starters had a bad collective game vs. Toronto Sunday (lost 108-99). But I can see them breaking out in this game, which Boston figures to take pretty lightly. For the Grizzlies, finishing 8th means everything as they would only need to win one play-in game (as opposed to two). Boston is 7-12 ATS off 3+ SU wins this season. 8* Memphis

7* Tampa Bay (3:05 ET): Some will consider this a “nightmare” matchup for the Lightning as they face the team that shockingly swept them in the 1st round of LY’s playoffs. That would be Columbus, who outlasted Toronto in a wild five-game qualification series to get here. Tampa Bay had the chance to be the East’s top seed for a third year in a row, but lost 4-1 to Philadelphia on Saturday, setting up the matchup here.

The Lightning should be highly motivated coming into this series. When they faced Columbus in last year’s playoffs, they were coming off a historically great regular season, which made the four-game sweep all the more head-scratching. This has obviously been a much different season. Still, TB had the 2nd most points and was in position to earn the top seed. They won their first two round-robin games by 3-2 scores over Washington and Boston and did so w/o Steven Stamkos.

When Stamkos will return to the ice remains a question mark and now defenseman Victor Hedman is out as well after sustaining a lower-body injury during the loss to Philly. This is hardly ideal when going into a pressure-filled matchup, but I think the Lightning take care of business in Game 1. Columbus had to play five games against Toronto. They got great goaltending in that series, but TB led the league in goals during the regular season. The Blue Jackets actually had a negative goal differential (-7) this year. 7* Tampa Bay

10* Under Nuggets/Lakers (9:05 ET): The Lakers have first place all sewn up in the Western Conference. You can tell as they’ve lost three in row, the latest coming to Indiana (116-111) as they could not overcome T.J. Warren’s 39 points. LeBron James missed the game before that, a 113-97 loss to the Rockets. I’m not sure what to expect from LA these next two games now that they have nothing to play for.

Denver, meanwhile, is fighting for seeding. They are still 3rd after beating Utah 134-132 in double overtime Saturday. It is unlikely that they will move from that position, which is where they were entering the restart. All five Nuggets games thus far have gone Over the total, though I’ve got a bone to pick with that last one. As mentioned previously, the game went to DOUBLE overtime. But it should have been done in regulation. The Nuggets had some sloppy execution in the final 10 seconds, allowing Utah to tie it up. That cost me an Under.

Denver got Jamal Murray back for Saturday’s game, but Will Barton and Gary Harris remain out. After the bad beat w/ the Under vs. Utah, I’m doubling down here as the Lakers have shot poorly here in the bubble with four games at 42% or less from the field. At the same time, the Lakers just allowed their highest FG% so far in the bubble and should be better defensively tonight. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are just plain due for an Under. 10* Under Nuggets/Lakers

10* Texas (9:05 ET): We’re back to fading Seattle, something that I’ve done regularly and with plenty of success so far this season. The Mariners picked up a rare win on Sunday, defeating the Colorado Rockies 5-3. That snapped a three-game losing streak, though the M’s are still just 6-11 on the year and their -38 run run differential is the worst in baseball. Having to travel to face a surging Texas team, I see the M’s resuming their losing ways on Monday. 

The Rangers are off a sweep of the Angels over the weekend. They held the Halos to just six runs in the three games as it certainly seems the new ballpark here in Arlington is a lot more pitcher-friendly. Thus far, the Rangers are allowing fewer than 3.0 rpg at home. Kyle Gibson, who has a 3.64 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Seattle (all w/ Minnesota), starts today’s game. Though winless in two 2020 starts, Gibson has a 2.75 ERA and has given up just 3 ER in 11 IP. 

Seattle’s pitching staff has been far less stingy as they came into yday’s game having given up an average of 6.3 rpg. That number jumps to 7.3 on the road, which is problematic to say the least. Starting tonight will be Justin Dunn, who is one of several young (and unproven) arms in the starting rotation. So far, Dunn has a 6.43 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in two starts. The Mariners bullpen has been equally terrible. All signs point to a romp for the home team here. 10* Texas

8* Philadelphia (6:05 ET): This is the finale of a four-game series which has seen Atlanta take two of the first three. The Braves swept a doubleheader on Sunday (both games only 7 innings per 2020 rules), winning 8-0 and 5-2. So this is a big revenge spot for the Phillies. At 11-6, the Braves are off to a great start (+27 run differential) but before yday they were only 2-4 on the road. They are 0-3 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175 and it’s worth noting the favorite has won all three games in this series. 

Desperate to earn a series split, the Phillies will hand the baseball to Aaron Nola. Nola had some hard-luck his last start, receiving a no-decision despite holding the Yankees to just one run (a solo HR) and three hits in 6 IP. He also had 12 strikeouts. But the Phillies still lost 3-1. Nola is an impressive 10-5 w/ a 2.94 ERA in 18 career starts vs. Atlanta, so I expect him to pitch well again here. 

 Sean Newcomb starts tonight for Atlanta. The southpaw failed to go a full five innings in either of his first two starts. Both of those were at home. He allowed six runs in the first one, only to get bailed out by the offense in an 11-10 Braves win over the Mets. He wasn’t as fortunate in his last start with the team losing 2-1 to Toronto. The Braves had one other shutout prior to yday and wound up losing their next game. History repeats itself here. 8* Philadelphia

10* Over Indians/White Sox (7:08 ET): Admittedly, betting a Shane Bieber start to go Over the total sounds risky. The Indians starter for Sunday has been lights out through three starts with a 0.83 ERA and 0.692 WHIP. All three starts have gone Under and the Indians are 3-0 as well. Bieber has a ridiculous 35 strikeouts in 20 ⅔ IP, which is the third most for any pitcher in MLB history through his first three starts. Furthermore, Cleveland is now 14-2 Under in all games this season!

However, as the Tribe showed yday, they are capable of putting some runs on the board. They scored seven times in the win, evening this series up at one game each. Now they’d previously been shut out Friday. But it was just two games ago that they hung 13 runs on the Reds. I do believe this lineup will start to “get going” and it’s worth noting the only other time White Sox starter Lucas Giolito started here at home, he gave up seven runs in 3 ⅔ IP. 

Now I’m well aware that Giolito has since bounced back w/ a pair of quality starts, one of them being six shutout innings vs. these Indians. But that was on the road. The White Sox are allowing more than 6.0 rpg at home thus far and the bullpen ERA here at Guaranteed Rate Field was a woeful 5.36 entering yesterday’s game. It’s a low total Sunday night and I see this game sneaking Over. 10* Over Indians/White Sox

10* Philadelphia (6:35 ET): This line seems to be a complete overreaction to the Sixers losing Ben Simmons for the rest of the season. Simmons, who dislocated his kneecap in Wednesday’s win over the Wizards, is a very good player. But I never saw much chemistry between him and the Sixers’ other star, Joe Embiid. Sure enough, Philly won its first game w/o Simmons, defeating Orlando 108-101 Friday and covering the spread as 4.5-point chalk.

Portland suffered a BRUTAL loss yesterday, falling to the Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers 122-117, a game where the Blazers were bet heavily and ended up closing as favorites. Even as a 3.5-pt dog, I felt the Blazers were being a bit overvalued. Closing as a favorite, they were definitely overvalued. The same scenario exists here as my numbers would have Philadelphia favored by 3.5 points if Simmons were playing. This looks like another overreaction towards Portland. 

The Blazers are one of the teams fighting to get that last playoff spot in the Western Conference. That’s what made yesterday’s result all the more tough to swallow. Remember that this is a team that’s been outscored per 100 possessions and is playing the second game of a B2B (likely without Hassan Whiteside). The Blazers are seven games below .500 for the year and are every bit as bad on the road as the Sixers. In Philly’s win over Orlando on Friday, Al Horford stepped up big with 21 pts and 9 rebounds. Don’t be surprised if that happens again. Portland is just 3-8 SU in the 2nd game of a B2B this year. 10* Philadelphia

8* San Diego (4:10 ET): The Padres were unable to rally Saturday, falling just short against the D’backs by a score of 3-2. They’d previously won the series opener, 3-0, in a game where we backed them. I’ll back ‘em again here Sunday for many of the same reasons I did Friday. Arizona is not a good team; in fact they have the 2nd worst run differential in the entire National League right now at -25. Outside of one big explosion vs. Houston earlier in the week, the D’backs haven’t scored more than five runs in a game this year. 

Madison Bumgarner looks to be toast, compounding problems for the visitors. He’s got an 0-3 TSR and 7.05 ERA through three starts, one of those being a loss to San Diego. Going back to late last year, Bumgarner has an 0-7 TSR his L7 starts. Adding to the concern here is that Bumgarner’s velocity is down (on his fastball) as is his KW ratio (only 1.83).

San Diego, who is 5-0 in series openers thus far and just 3-7 in all other games, will turn to Dinelson Lamet on Sunday. Lament has already faced the D’backs once and he held them to one run in five innings, a game the Padres ended up winning 12-7. Lamet has a 1.72 ERA across three starts and we should see him pitch well again Sunday. Lamet has allowed just four runs total so far, one of them unearned. 8* San Diego

8* St. Louis (3:05 ET): Saturday determined the 1-seeds in the respective conferences, but Sunday is all about who gets seeded 3rd and 4th. In the West, St. Louis and Dallas have each opened 0-2. With all the upsets that transpired over in the qualification series, even the loser here is going to get a weaker than expected Round of 16 playoff opponent. It comes down to the simple fact that I think the Blues are the better team.

St. Louis came into the bubble having finished first in the regular season with 94 points, two more than Colorado and eight more than Vegas, the two teams that will play Saturday to determine the #1 seed. Losses to the Avs (2-1) and Golden Knights (6-4) mean the Blues can finish no higher than 3rd when the playoffs get going proper. Worth noting that the loss to the Avs came at the buzzer and then the Blues led the Golden Knights 2-0 early in the 2nd period. So being 0-2 is a tough pill to swallow.

As for Dallas, they too blew a multi-goal lead to Vegas (ended up losing 5-3) and then were shutout by the Avalanche 4-0. This was one of the coldest teams in the league at the time of the shutdown. They’re actually now on an 8-game losing streak going back to March. The Stars’ goal differential for the season is now negative while the Blues can still claim to be +29. I concede that St. Louis hasn’t looked great in either game and Vladimir Tarasenko’s injury is a concern. But they’ve taken six of the last seven meetings w/ Dallas, who isn’t in the same league as either Colorado or Vegas. 8* St. Louis

10* Under Wizards/Thunder (12:35 ET): The Wizards probably didn’t even need to bother showing up in the bubble here in Orlando. They faced an uphill climb to even force a play-in game and a depleted roster made those chances even slimmer. Sure enough, the remote hope of making the playoffs has already been dashed as the Wiz are 0-5 SU and eliminated from contention. They have nothing left to play for except pride at this point and I don’t expect pride to have much of an effect these next three games. 

Oklahoma City is battling for seeding in the Western Conference. They are currently tied with Utah for 5th. Obviously, with home court advantage no longer a factor, it doesn’t matter as much where the Thunder finish. But they’d still like the best possible matchup. They’re also looking to bounce back from a humiliating defeat on Friday where they lost 121-92 to Memphis. Proud to say I was on the Grizzlies in that one, which marked the second time in three games where OKC lost outright as a favorite.

These teams have combined to go 6-3 Under since the restart with the Wizards having gone Under in three straight. Of who’s left on the roster, Rui Hachimura is Washington’s leading scorer at just 13.4 PPG. The team is averaging just 105.4 PPG on 44% shooting here in Orlando. Oklahoma City is missing Dennis Schroeder right now and that has left an undue burden on Shai Gilegous-Alexander, whose shooting has suffered with more playing time (32.4% L3 games). Like Washington, the Thunder have yet to score more than 113 pts here in the bubble. They are actually shooting WORSE than the Wizards here. Under is 19-5 this season in OKC games w/ a total of 220+ pts. 10* Under Wizards/Thunder

10* Chris Weidman (10:45 ET): I feel that Weidman, the former Middleweight Champ, is set for a dominant performance when he sets foot inside the Octagon Saturday night against Omari Akhmedov.  He needs it. Things have not gone well for the “All American” since unseating Anderson Silva back in 2013. Weidman has lost five of his last six fights including a failed try to move up to LHW. He’e back down to 185 lbs for this fight and calling it a “must win” would be putting it mildly.

Akhmedov is a 7-year vet of the UFC and has a 20-4-1 record. Akhmedov is 5-0-1 in his L6 fights, so the respective fighters definitely come in sporting much different form. But remember that he has not faced the caliber of competition that Weidman has. It would have been unthinkable even a year ago to be able to get Weidman as these kind of odds against a fighter like Akhmedov. I’ll jump at the opportunity.

Important to factor in that Akhmedov used to fight at Welterweight, so he’s going to be at a size disadvantage inside the cage. In what promises to be a bit of a grappling contest, the size edge should come into play for Weidman. I’m not ready to give up on this former champ yet, despite recent form. 10* Chris Weidman

8* Baniel Darisuh (9:15 ET): Dariush is certainly a fighter worth keeping your eyes on Saturday as he comes off three consecutive “Fight of the Night” victories, all finishes. He’s on a four-fight win streak overall, which has him at 18-4 in his career. I like Dariush to continue rolling Saturday in a fight scheduled for three-rounds at lightweight (155 lbs). This will be the opener of the main card. 

Because of how deep the LW division is, Dariush is still relatively going unnoticed with the exception of some die-hard fans and bettors. That’s fine by me as it means we’re able to grab him at a pretty good value for this fight. The key against Scott Holtzman will be Darisuh’s superior striking ability. Although don’t discount his takedowns either. Each of Dariush’s last four fights (all wins) have seen him land at least one takedown. 

Holtzman has never been finished in his pro MMA career, however only three of his past nine wins have been by way other than decision. I see him being at a disadvantage either standing or on the ground, so it’s a clear fade here. Holtzman just isn’t that great of a defensive fighter and that spells doom against an opponent such as this. 8* Baneil Dariush

9* Oakland (4:10 ET): The A’s stunned the Astros last night to win their 7th in a row. They now lead the AL West by 3.5 games. Last night’s game went 13 innings and after Houston scored in the top half of the frame, Oakland answered back with two runs of its own. The Astros have now lost three in a row dating back to its series with Arizona. Last night’s result will almost certainly have a “carryover” effect given how it went down. I’ll back the A’s in what it is a “statement series” for them. 

All seven of Oakland’s wins during this current streak have come against division rivals. But the previous six came at the expense of Texas and Seattle, neither of whom is very good. Beating the Astros, who are the standard-bearers of the division is a big deal. With all the controversy surrounding the ‘Stros this year (cheating scandal) and the shortened 60-game schedule, this would seem to be an ideal season for the A’s to make their move to the top of the AL West. So far, so good. 

Houston is giving up far too many runs this year due to a combo of no depth in the starting rotation and a bad bullpen. Pitching was not the problem yesterday, but they also had Zack Greinke starting yday. We’ll see how Framber Valdez does here. The last time he faced the A’s, it was part of a 21-7 loss last September. The Astros’ bullpen was good yday, but entered the game with a 1.70 WHIP. Frankie Montas starts for Oakland and he’s allowed just 4 ER in 16 IP so far. Houston is likely without George Springer (leads team in HRs and RBIs) for the remainder of the series. 9* Oakland

10* Colorado (3:05 ET): It’s important to note that the official start time of this game is still being worked out. It’s contingent on the results of Friday and how many (if any) qualification series are still ongoing. Regardless of WHEN the puck drops, I like the Avalanche in this battle for the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Both they and the Golden Knights are 2-0. But Vegas has had to come back from multi-goal deficits in both games. Colorado had the “buzzer-beater” against St. Louis, but then turned in a dominant 4-0 win over Dallas on Wednesday, which was another game where we backed the Avs. 

In position to grab the top seed in the West, one could argue the Avs are deserving of being in this spot. They owned the best goal differential among Western Conference teams before the lockdown (+46). League-wide, only the Bruins and Lightning outscored their opponents by a wider margin. The Avs have also been an exceptional road team all year long with a league-best 26-11-2 SU record (including the bubble). They've had an extra day to prepare for this all-important showdown as well. 

The underdog is 4-0 SU the past four head-to-head meetings between these two clubs. Unfortunately for Vegas, they were the favorite in all four games! Earlier this year, the Avs dealt them two blowout losses with a 13-4 goal advantage. Now Colorado lines up as the favorite. That the Golden Knights have given up seven goals in two games is a bit concerning. The Avs have allowed just one and bring a five-period shutout streak into Saturday’s showdown. I look for Colorado to earn the #1 seed. 10* Colorado

8* San Diego (9:10 ET): The Padres were one of the nice early season surprises, but have hit the skids in recent days, dropping two in a row. Still, they are among the highest scoring teams in all of baseball, scoring two more runs than the Dodgers in the same number of games (13). They had yday off to recoup from a tough 7-6 loss to the Dodgers where the game ended with a runner thrown out at the plate. Now they face an Arizona team they’ve already taken three of four from earlier in the year and I believe a turnaround is imminent. 

Arizona, though off B2B wins, has struggled in the early going. They are 5-8 and their -23 run differential is the National League’s worst. It’s tough to like them here with Luke Weaver starting as Weaver has a 14.73 ERA and 2.592 WHIP after two outings. He allowed six runs in both, one of which was against the Padres. So San Diego’s early season offensive prowess should definitely continue tonight. 

The D’backs are averaging just 2.8 rpg on the road so far plus they played yesterday. Not having the off-day like San Diego is a definite disadvantage coming into this series. Zach Davies will start here for the Padres in what was originally going to be Joey Lucchesi’s spot. But Lucchesi had struggled this year and Davies looks to be an upgrade. Davies has allowed just nine hits in 10 IP so far with one walk. 8* San Diego

10* Cincinnati (8:10 ET): Yesterday, I joked that maybe the Angels are in need of OUR blessing as they’d won when we took them Tuesday and then lost Wednesday when we laid off. Well a play on the Halos yday resulted in another win for both them and us. The same joke could be made regarding the Reds, who are 2-0 this season when we back them and a terribly disappointing 3-8 otherwise. Well, good news Reds fans. I’m taking your team as my Game of the Week for Friday!

Cincy was humiliated last night, losing 13-0 at Cleveland. That was an Indians team which had been at the bottom of the league in scoring until yesterday. Luckily, Trevor Bauer will start tonight’s game for the Reds. Bauer has a 0.68 ERA and 0.525 WHIP in two starts thus far, both of which were against Detroit. The Brewers have never faced Bauer before, so they’re at a disadvantage. 

Of course, it won’t matter how well Bauer pitches if the Reds can’t score. They’ve been shutout in back to back games and haven’t scored a run in 23 innings. But that was facing the Indians tremendous pitching staff. Milwaukee’s pitching hasn’t been nearly as sharp, though they did allow only three runs (all yday) in a two-game sweep of the White Sox. But I don’t have a ton of faith in Eric Lauer, who starts today for the first time after starting the year on the COVID-19 list (came into contact with someone who had the virus). Lauer went just 14-17 in two seasons with San Diego. His ERA was 4.43 in 52 starts. 10* Cincinnati

10* Edmonton (6:35 ET): The Oilers are on the brink here, facing elimination, which wasn’t supposed to be the case as they entered the series as the #5 seed while Chicago was #12. The Blackhawks were last in the Central when the season shutdown but haven’t looked like a place team in a wild, high-scoring series that has seen 13 goals scored per side. Five of Edmonton’s goals have come from Connor McDavid, so he certainly hasn’t been the problem. Goaltending clearly has for the Oilers as Mike Smith was horrendous in Game 1 and Mikko Koskinen has been no better in the last two. Still, I look for McDavid and the Oilers to force a deciding Game 5.

Goaltending has been no “walk in the park” for Chicago either. Corey Crawford has a 4.33 GAA and .859 save percentage thus far in the series. Those numbers are worse than Koskinen’s. Though they need to be given credit for winning twice so far, I’m just not a believer in this Blackhawks club that is just 10-25 SU their L35 games playing on a single day’s rest. 

Edmonton led Game 3 with just under six minutes remaining. So they let one slip away. Let’s also not forget that they are playing on their home rink here. While home ice advantage obviously doesn’t mean what it normally would in this scenario, the Oilers still should have the edge as the host team for the Western Conference hub. I just can’t see them losing for a third time in four tries as a favorite. 10* Edmonton

8* Memphis (4:05 ET): To say the Grizzlies hold on the 8th place position in the Western Conference is “loosening” would be an understatement. The team is 0-4 SU since the restart (also 0-4 ATS) and probably won’t be favored in any games the rest of the way (unless opponents start resting starters). The poor record here in Orlando has resulted in the Grizzlies’ lead being whittled down to one-half game over Portland. Four other teams are within three games. Remember - all that is needed to force a play-in game is for the 9th place team to finish within four games of 8th. At this rate, the Grizzlies might not even be involved in such a play-in scenario. 

With Toronto, Boston and Milwaukee all looming on the schedule (three top teams in the East!), tonight’s game is basically a must-win for Memphis. They face an Oklahoma City team that just whipped the Lakers 105-86 as a five-point dog. The Thunder have definitely overachieved this season as is evident by the fact they have the league’s best ATS record. They held the Lakers to a dreadful shooting night on Wednesday, but let’s not forget that after a similar impressive showing vs. Utah in the first game, OKC lost their next time out (to Denver) as a favorite.

Memphis was on the wrong end of a 22-1 run against Utah Weds afternoon and that was the difference in a 124-115 final. The Grizzlies actually had a higher field goal percentage than the Jazz. Also remember that the Grizzlies first two losses in the bubble came in overtime and by two points. While 0-4 is bad, they definitely have played better than the record. They are due for a win here. Take the points. 8* Memphis

10* Dallas (6:35 ET): Tuesday marked the 1st time since the restart that Dallas won a game. They beat Sacramento 114-110 in overtime, however they also dropped to 0-3 ATS as they were 5-point favorites at the betting window. I’ve been terribly disappointed with how the Mavs have started as this was a team I earmarked to make some noise in Orlando. For what it’s worth, both of their losses were by just two points and each time they blew a double-digit lead in the game. That’s a troubling carryover from before lockdown when they had the worst record in the league in games decided by three points or fewer. 

The Clippers also have a pair of 2-pt losses on their resume. The most recent, 117-115 against Phoenix, was one that we were on Tuesday. The Clips were 9.5-pt favorites in the contest, but I said there was no way they were going to match the ridiculously hot shooting from the last game (126-103 win over New Orleans) when they set a franchise-record for three-pointers made. The loss to the Suns was also costly in the sense that PG Patrick Beverley suffered a calf injury. He’s already been ruled out for this contest. 

This could very well end up being a 1st round playoff matchup. The Clippers are seeded 2nd right now while the Mavs are 7th. Even though it's the Clippers that are off a loss, the sense of urgency is likely to be greater on the Dallas side here. Again, the Mavs easily could be 3-0 SU since the restart and probably should be. Luka Doncic was ridiculous on Tuesday with 32 pts, 20 rebounds and 12 assists. His teammates didn’t help much though as they went a combined 21 of 66 from the field, including 7 of 35 from 3-pt range. Those numbers will improve here as will the Mavs’ record in close games. They still boast the league’s top offensive efficiency rating. 10* Dallas

10* LA Angels (4:10 ET): Maybe it’s the Angels that need OUR blessing? I took them Tuesday in what seemed to be a favorable spot and they delivered a 5-3 win. But now it’s back to the drawing board following Wednesday’s 7-6 loss. I had no play last night as the Halos have certainly had some trouble beating the M’s so far this year. It’s just a 2-3 head to head record, which is surprising as I don’t expect much from Seattle this season. The Angels got Mike Trout back in the lineup Tuesday and he’s performed well thus far. Shohei Ohtani, who hasn’t worked out as a starter, will return to being a DH for this afternoon’s rubber match. I just can’t see the Angels losing to the Mariners again and will offer up another “coveted” blessing! 

Dylan Bundy starts for LA here. He’s opened 2020 with a pair of quality starts, allowing just four runs and seven hits in 12 ⅔ IP. He also has a 15-2 KW ratio. Free from the confines of pitching for Baltimore, Bundy should start to see more success with his new club. Bundy has a 3.12 ERA in five career appearances against Seattle, three of those being starts. The Mariners came into yesterday hitting a collective .178 in five home games. 

Taijuan Walker will oppose Bundy here and while he also pitched well his last time out, he was shaky in his first when he allowed five runs in 3 ⅓ IP. Walker has a 5.23 ERA in six career starts vs. the Angels. Walker was a big ML dog when he won his last start. I can’t see that happening two times in a row nor can I see the team winning as a big ML dog two days in a row. 10* LA Angels

8* Under Penguins/Canadiens (8:05 ET): We had Pittsburgh in Game 2, which was a must win for the Penguins, and sure enough they came through in 3-1 fashion to even up the series at a game apiece. Now comes the all-important Game 3. Both games so far have gone Under with Montreal winning Game 1 by a score of 3-2. That’s the way we see this one going as well as the respective goaltenders should continue to rule the series. 

Pittsburgh stuck with Matt Murray in Game 2 and he rewarded them by carrying a shutout into the third period. He made 26 saves in all. One could argue that Montreal’s Carey Price was even more impressive though. He stopped 35 shots in Game 2 (last Penguins goal was an empty netter) and that was after making 39 saves in Game 1. The thought was that if Montreal was going to “steal” this series, it would be on the back of Price. I’m not surprised how well he’s playing. 

The Under is now 5-0 the last five Penguins’ playoff games where they were a favorite. Obviously, that’s the case again here. The Under is also now 6 for 6 the last six head to head matchups with Montreal. The Canadiens are 12-2-3 their L17 games as a playoff underdog. 8* Under Penguins/Canadiens

10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): The Pirates are pretty clearly outclassed in this series, which now shifts to Pittsburgh for the next two games. The Bucs had no luck in Minnesota, losing 5-4 and 7-3 the last two days, and playing in an empty PNC Park isn’t about to change things. The Twins have won five straight games while the Pirates have lost six in a row. The underdogs had their chance Monday, but blew a 4-0 lead. Look for the Twins to continue to make them pay. 

At 9-2, Minnesota has equaled the franchise’s best ever start through 11 games. They have a +27 run differential, which is the best in the American League and second best in all of baseball (Dodgers). Randy Dobnak gets the start tonight, looking to continue his own personal strong start to 2020. In two starts, Dobnak has gone nine innings and allowed just one run on six hits. Last time out, he pitched five scoreless frames in a 4-1 win over Cleveland. 

Trevor Williams has the unenviable task of facing a red hot Twins lineup, which is led by Nelson Cruz, who already has 15 RBI’s. Williams has an 0-2 TSR so far with the Pirates losing 9-1 (St. Louis) and 6-3 (Cubs). The Bucs have baseball’s worst record right now (2-9) and I’m not surprised as they were projected to be among the worst teams this season. The Twins have allowed no more than four runs in any of the L9 games while the Pirates have managed only 14 runs total during their six-game slide. 10* Minnesota

10* Colorado (6:35 ET): The Avs pulled the proverbial “rabbit out of their hat” Sunday, beating the Blues at the buzzer. The 2-1 win was a nice start to round robin play for a team that I felt was the best in the West pre-lockdown. No other team in the conference could match the Avalanche’s +46 goal differential. Having already dispatched the reigning Stanley Cup Champs (and the team with the most points in the West this year), it shouldn’t prove difficult to defeat the weakest team in the West’s round robin format, that being Dallas. 

The Stars have now technically lost seven straight games after Monday’s 5-3 setback at the hands of Vegas. That was a brutal loss in the sense that Dallas blew a 3-1 lead, giving up four goals in the third period. That will be tough to overcome. Colorado will NOT be lacking for motivation here as they were 0-2-2 vs. the Stars in the regular season. 

Despite the head to head results, I would deem it “laughable” to consider the Stars as the better side here. They had a goal differential of only +3 before the season got shut down. That was only eighth best among Western Conference teams. I am anticipating the Avalanche winning the round robin format while the Stars were my pick to finish last. Thus, the play here is automatic. 10* Colorado

10* Memphis (2:30 ET): Underdogs had a strong effort yesterday, especially in the daytime where there were two huge upsets - Nets over Bucks and Suns over Clippers. The former was the largest upset the NBA has seen (in terms of pointspread) since 1993. I was on the latter. Were Memphis to defeat Utah Weds afternoon, it would obviously not be in the same realm of those aforementioned upsets. But still give us the Grizz plus the points in this one. 

Both of these teams are 0-3 ATS since the restart. The only difference is Utah did win a game straight up, their opener, 106-104 over New Orleans. But the Jazz trailed by double digits in that one. Memphis just played New Orleans, and lost, a result I was happy about since I laid points with the Pelicans. Having lost three in a row, the Grizzlies hold on 8th place in the Western Conference has gotten a lot more tenuous. They entered Tuesday just two games up on both the Spurs and Blazers. A play-in scenario is all but assured with whomever finishes ninth, but right now Memphis simply needs to worry about winning a game. 

After suffering a third straight loss, news got even worse for Memphis when it was announced yday that forward Jaren Jackson Jr is out for the season due to a knee injury. Jackson had averaged 25.3 points in the three games so far. However, let’s not forget Utah is playing without its second leading scorer - Bojan Bogdanovic - as well. Also concerning for the Jazz is that their last two opponents have shot better than 50% from the field. Memphis is more desperate here. 10* Memphis

10* Under Wild/Canucks (10:45 ET): This qualification series saw Minnesota open with a 3-0 win on Sunday. The Wild scored a goal in all three periods while outshooting the Canucks 31-28. Two of the three goals came on the power play. I was impressed with the Wild’s defensive efforts as Vancouver got very few scoring chances in the third period. However, it’s not like the Wild can count on a similar PP effort every game. I see this being another low-scoring affair. Take the Under. 

Vancouver’s last playoff appearance was in 2015 and there’s only three players from that team still left on the roster. They are going to be leaning heavily on goalie Jacob Markstom in this series and he should be better in Game 2 than he was in Game 1. Markstrom had a .918 save percentage and 2.75 GAA in the regular season. The problem is going to be, like we saw in Game 1, will the offense give Markstrom any relief? The top six skates produced only five shots in Game 1. 

So far in the postseason, 12 of the 16 games played have stayed Under. If you remove the round robin matchups, the Under is 9-3. Minnesota is 39-29 Under the L3 seasons when coming off a win by 2+goals. All of the Wild’s goals in Game 1 came from defensemen. The fact not a single forward scored in Game 1 is maybe the biggest reason of all to look Under for Game 2. 10* Under Wild/Canucks

10* LA Angels (10:10 ET): Seattle was routed yet again last night, this time losing 11-1 here at home to Oakland. It was the M’s third loss in a row and this figures to be a season of losing streaks in the Pacific Northwest as the club doesn’t project to be much of a factor in the AL West. However, they were able to take two of three from the Angels earlier this year. Both wins came as big ML underdogs. But that should have the Halos motivated coming into this series opener and I expect them to win big. 

In addition to being motivated, the Angels come in rested as they had Monday off. It’s been a rough start so far for this team as they are 3-7 and in last place in the West, one-half game behind the Mariners. But things are looking up as Mike Trout is expected to return from the paternity list tonight. Obviously, missing the former MVP’s bat was a big deal in the weekend series with Houston. Yet they still scored a respectable 16 runs in that three-game series and almost took two of three (lost in extra innings Sunday). 

Andrew Heaney (0-2 TSR) has yet to record a decision for the Angels, but has pitched well in his two starts with a 2.79 ERA and 0.827 WHIP. He went five innings vs. Seattle last time out and allowed just two runs. Again, he’ll be opposed by Justin Dunn, who was less effective than Heaney in the previous matchup, yet somehow Seattle came away with the 10-7 win. Dunn lasted only three innings, gave up three runs, and had more walks than strikeouts. This is a GREAT spot for LA to get back on the track. 10* LA Angels

8* Phoenix (4:05 ET): The Suns entered the restart with the worst record among remaining Western Conference teams, but have managed to go 2-0 including a come from behind win over Dallas on Sunday. Before that, they had no trouble dispatching Washington 125-112. I like them plus the points here as this line is greatly inflated due to the Clippers’ performance in their last game. Were it not for the Nets-Bucks game earlier today, this would be the highest line for any NBA game since the restart. In this case, it is unwarranted.

The Clippers set a new franchise record with 26 made threes in a 126-103 blowout of New Orleans Sunday. That broke the old mark of 24, set against Miami earlier this season. They were 16 of 24 from behind the arc in the 1st half Sunday, taking a 77-45 lead into the break. Needless to say, the Clips aren’t going to be shooting that well anytime soon. They’re actually shooting less than 43% overall in the two games so far.

Let’s also not forget the Clippers lost their first game. Yes, by only two points, and it was to the Lakers. But it was a loss nevertheless. Even with six more games to play, it’s extremely likely that the Clips are going to finish 2nd in the West. There’s a far greater sense of urgency for the Suns, who not only need to finish within 4th games of 8th place, but also need to leapfrog several teams. The Suns actually sport a better net efficiency rating than several of the teams they are competing against. Take the points. 8* Phoenix

10* Over Lakers/Jazz (9:05 ET): We’ve seen some high-scoring games so far in Orlando, but both the Lakers and Jazz are 2-0 to the Under. After squeaking out a 103-101 win over the Clippers, the Lakers were held to just 92 points in a 15-point loss to the Raptors. Utah’s first two games followed a similar script. First they came from behind to defeat New Orleans 106-104 (a game we had the Under), then they were held to 94 pts in a DD loss to OKC on Saturday. I expect both teams to bounce back offensively tonight. 

The Lakers haven’t shot well as they’ve been held below 40% from the field in both games. They were at 48.1% in the regular season, so it’s quite realistic to expect an improvement in this area moving forward. Toronto, who is excellent defensively, held the Lakers to just 35.4% and 10 of 40 from 3-pt range. LeBron James & Anthony Davis combined for only 34 pts. Obviously all of these numbers should go up tonight. 

Utah was almost as miserable vs. OKC, getting held below 40% shooting for the game. A 15-point 1Q really did them in and they never really recovered. It was the second straight game that the Jazz fell behind by double digits in the first half. They clearly miss second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20.2 PPG, but leading scorer Donovan Mitchell had just 13 pts vs. the Thunder and that number will improve tonight. This is a low total that I expect to go Over. 10* Over Lakers/Jazz

7* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): One would surmise that the Penguins are likely to even this series back up after a surprising overtime loss in Game 1. It was a tough loss to take as the Pens outshot the Canadiens 41-35 and were just 1 for 7 on the power play including coming up empty on THREE different 5 on 3 chances. That’s a game they should have won and obviously falling into an 0-2 hole in a best of five series is something that must be avoided at all costs. 

Montreal is lucky to even be in the postseason as they are seeded 12th and had seven fewer points than every other Eastern Conference club in the field. As we saw in Game 1, Carey Price gives them a shot, but I just don’t think he can carry them to victory over a superior side like the Penguins. The Habs were outscored over the course of this season and were basically a .500 team in regulation. 

It remains to be seen who Pittsburgh goes with in goal here, but it’s worth mentioning that Tristan Jarry had a better save percentage than Price this year. Assuming they get a similar number of opportunities, I don’t think we’re going to see the Penguins whiff like they did Saturday. They’ve still won 7 of their last 10 vs. Montreal. 7* Pittsburgh

10* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): The Reds played a doubleheader on Sunday, but with such games now limited to just seven innings, that’s not the kind of disadvantage it would normally be. Plus, they swept the twinbill, beating the Tigers 4-3 and 4-0. It was the best day of the season so far for the Reds, who are now 4-5 after coming into 2020 with much hype, tabbed by many (including me) as a potential dark horse in the National League. They’ll return home Monday to host an Indians team that is really struggling at the plate. 

Cleveland lost 3-1 Sunday, the fifth consecutive game they were held to two runs or fewer. They’ve been shutout twice (including Saturday) and scored a grand total of four runs during the five games. Obviously, that’s never good, but today the Tribe will run into a red hot starter in Sonny Gray, who is 2-0 for Cincinnati w/ a 0.72 ERA and 0.552 WHIP. Gray had 11 K’s in his last start and allowed just one hit in 6 ⅔ IP. He’s now allowed six or less hits in 35 consecutive starts.

Not all the news has been good for the Reds over the L24 hours. Joey Votto is likely to sit this out after self-reporting COVID-19 symptoms. But considering Votto was 0 for 9 at the plate the L3 games, maybe that’s not too big of a loss. The Reds came into yday averaging 5.6 rpg, which is near the top of the league. Cleveland starter Zach Plesac is off his own impressive outing w/ 11 K’s, but the Indians still lost the game due to not scoring. I just don’t think the Indians will have enough offense to compete tonight. 10* Cincinnati

8* New Orleans (6:30 ET): The Grizzlies meet the Pelicans Monday in a KEY matchup. Both teams are 0-2 since the restart and fighting for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Memphis played yesterday, losing by two to the Spurs, which puts them at a distinct disadvantage for tonight’s matchup. They will be the first team since the restart to play on B2B days (Spurs also play later tonight). 

The Pelicans have been one of the bigger disappointments thus far. They were flat out embarrassed Saturday night by the Clippers in a 126-103 loss. They trailed at one point by as many as 42 points. Zion Williamson’s playing time been restricted, which could be the case again tonight, as the #1 overall DC has played a total of just 29 minutes. Trailing the Grizzlies by 3.5 games in the standings and needing to jump two teams (Spurs, Blazers), the importance of tonight’s game seems not lost on the Pelicans players. "This is basically a must-win game for us," said Lonzo Ball. 

It’s worth mentioning that in their first game, NO led Utah by as many as 16 pts before falling apart down the stretch. Memphis only lost by 2 pts yday, but was down by 11 in the second half. Not only is this a 2nd night of a B2B for the Grizzlies, they also played an OT game on Friday. New Orleans was 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Memphis in the regular season, averaging 132.5 PPG. Memphis has the 3rd lowest offensive efficiency rating of the 22 teams invited to Orlando. 8* New Orleans

10* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): The Lightning were just starting to hit their stride when the coronavirus hit. They were inching closer to Boston for the top spot in the Atlantic and had the 2nd most points in the entire Eastern Conference. They also had the best goal differential in the league (+50) besides the Bruins. Washington, who had 90 points, outscored its opponents by basically only half that margin and wasn’t looking nearly as dominant. I’m looking for a statement win by TB here today. 

Now the Lightning did lose all three times they faced the Capitals this year. But all three games were played before X-Mas, prior to when TB really started to get its act together. Washington has goaltending concerns heading into the tournament as Braden Holtby has no backup. That would be fine if Holtby was having a good season, but his save percentage this year was down under .900. As a reminder, the Lightning led the league in goals scored.

Tampa looked dominant in a tuneup vs. Florida last week, winning 5-0. Their top line looked sharp and that has to be scary for the rest of the league. Andrei Vasilevskiy had another strong campaign between the pipes, so the Lightning are fine there. This is a really good value on the superior side. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Vancouver (10:35 ET): Yes, Minnesota is a veteran club with more playoff experience than Vancouver. But I felt the Canucks were the better team this year and they’re poised to potentially pull an “upset” in this qualification series, which counts as their first postseason experience since 2015. Vancouver had a +11 goal differential in 69 games whereas the Wild allowed the same exact number they scored. This is a solid value on the team with better goaltending.

Jacob Markstrom is going to be the key for the Canucks to win this series. The netminder was a borderline Vezina finalist this year with a .918 save percentage and 2.75 GAA. Again, I give him the edge over counterpart Alex Stalock, who is the only reliable option left for the Wild after Devan Dubnyk fell apart this year. 

The Wild would not have even made the postseason were it not for the expanded format. Meanwhile, Vancouver sat 4th in the Pacific and was just above the cutline. The Canucks also boast the better top line. 10* Vancouver

10* Sacramento (6:05 ET): Orlando has to like its chances of finishing 7th in the East now. After a convincing 128-118 win on Friday, the Magic leapfrogged a severely depleted Nets squad in the standings and now hold a commanding 6.5 game lead over ninth place Washington. The big story for the Magic in their 1st game of the restart was the offense as they scored 111 pts through three quarters, which is more than the team averaged per game prior to lockdown. The Magic led the game by as many as 29 points.

Out West, Sacramento is in a much more precarious position when it comes to making the playoffs. They started as one of four teams within 3.5 games of 8th place Memphis. But they lost to one of the four, San Antonio, 129-120 on Friday. Even though they scored 120 points, the Kings did not shoot well from three-point range, making only 12 of 38 attempts. The Kings can ill-afford another loss Sunday or they’ll risk losing even more ground to the Memphis-San Antonio winner. At least New Orleans lost again yday.

My guess is that Orlando might be feeling a little too good about itself coming into this one. They won’t have the same sense of urgency that Sacramento will. I can’t see the Magic shooting as well as they did vs. Brooklyn, who - again - is playing with a real “skeleton” crew right now. The Kings outscored the Spurs over the final three quarters Friday and unlike Orlando should shoot better here. Take the points. 10* Sacramento

10* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): The Dodgers looked as strong as ever yday, beating the D’backs 11-2. They’re now 6-3, which doesn’t seem all that dominant, but their +27 YTD run differential is easily a league best and 11 runs better than the next best team. MVP Corey Bellinger didn’t even play Saturday as he was given the day off. Mookie Betts and Corey Seager were also both pulled once LA had built its big lead. As if the Dodgers weren’t already strong enough, today they’ll be sending Clayton Kershaw to the bump for the very first time. 

Kershaw was supposed to start Opening Day, but was scratched due to a back issue.  That was over a week ago, so everything should be fine. Kershaw has a 2.84 ERA in 33 career starts vs. Arizona, so history says he’ll pitch well in this spot. The D’backs had only five hits yesterday, all singles. They have scored only 27 runs total in 9 games so far, never topping five in any one contest.  Dodgers’ opponents have scored more than three runs in a game only twice so far this season. 

Merrill Kelly will pitch for the D’backs. It’s a challenging spot going against Kershaw and presumably Bellinger will be in the lineup today, making it an even more formidable Dodgers lineup that he’s got to face. Now Kelly did have a no-hitter going for 6+ innings in his first start, which ended up being a 4-1 win at Texas. But the Dodgers had three innings of 3+ runs last night and also homered four times. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Under Spurs/Grizzlies (4:05 ET): This is a pretty important game in the race for the 8th spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Memphis currently holds it, but that lead is now down to 2.5 games after they lost (in overtime) to Portland on Monday. San Antonio won their first game of the restart, 129-120 against Sacramento. That leaves them three back of the Grizzlies. A win here would obviously be huge for the Spurs, but I’m not really confident they can match their shooting from Friday. 

The Spurs shot 53.3% from the field vs. Sacramento in a game they were outscored over the final three quarters.They also assisted on 32 of their 48 made baskets. The keys were DeMar DeRozan scoring 17 of his 27 in the 4Q as well as Derrick White matching a career-high w/ 26 points. The team also shot 44% from 3pt range and 22 of 27 from the FT line, Again, I don’t see those kinds of numbers being duplicated here. 

Memphis may have scored 135 pts in a losing effort Friday, but they didn’t shoot all that well. They shot 45.2% overall and missed 28 of 41 three-point attempts. But they were able to get to the FT line FIFTY times, which certainly will not repeat itself anytime soon. Among teams still playing, the Grizzlies own the third worst offensive efficiency. They are 4-0 Under the L4 times they allowed 125+ pts the previous game. 10* Under Spurs/Grizzlies

10* Over Padres/Rockies (8:10 ET): San Diego is living up to hype having started 6-2. They came from behind to take last night’s opener in Colorado, 8-7, thanks to a pair of home runs in the top of the ninth. The Padres lead the league in runs scored (52) and while they’re tied for most games played (8), their runs per game average (6.5) also is a MLB-best. Playing in Coors Field doesn’t figure to slow them down any and so Saturday’s matchup is one which I feel is likely to go Over the total.

The Rockies came into this series on a four-game win streak. They’d allowed just nine runs total in the first five games, but all of those were played on the road. The total number of runs allowed this season nearly doubled with the first game at Coors and that really should not come as a shock seeing as they allow the most runs per game at home almost every season (6.7 in ‘19). Of course, they also averaged more than 6.0 rpg at home LY as well and offense wasn’t the problem last night as they had 14 hits, two of which were HR’s. 

Joey Luccheshi didn’t pitch all that great for the Padres in his first outing. He lasted just 3 ⅔ innings and gave up two runs on five hits. The Padres still won 6-2 as they’ve scored five runs in every game but one so far. Having struggled the third time through the order last week, I don’t expect Lucchesi to last long tonight. For Colorado, Kyle Freeland went 3-11 with a 6.42 ERA in 2019. His first start this year was a win, but that was on the road. 10* Over Padres/Rockies

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Sixers seem to be getting a lot of love from bettors prior to the restart, but have people forgotten just how subpar this team was away from home? Their 10-24 SU road record was easily the worst among the 22 teams invited to Orlando. Therefore, I expect them to struggle more than expected. When the NBA hit the pause button on the season, the Sixers and Pacers were tied with identical 39-26 SU records. The reason that the Sixers are favored by several points is due to the uncertain status of Victor Oladipo. Even if he chooses to not play, I expect Indiana to compete on Saturday. Take the points. 

Originally, Oladipo had said he was NOT going to play in Orlando. But there was a change of heart and he suited up from the team’s scrimmages. My guess is that if he was willing to scrimmage, he’s likely to play. With Oladipo in the lineup, there’s no reason to believe the Pacers can’t beat the Sixers straight up and thus taking points is a “no brainer.” But even if he doesn’t play, Philly has proven itself untrustworthy on the road.

As an away favorite, the Sixers are just 4-10-1 ATS this season. Their .641 difference between home and road percentages was set to be the largest of any team since the league went to an 82-game schedule. I view this as an excellent shot at fading the public, who is too high on a Philadelphia team that is - at best - 4th in the Eastern Conference pecking order. If Oladipo plays, it’s a bonus. 8* Indiana

10* Edmonton (3:05 ET): While no fans will be in attendance and travel is not an issue, the Oilers still have an edge with the Western Conference “bubble” being in Edmonton. The players know the rink well (Rogers Place). While the Oilers are in the qualification round, their first round opponent is the Chicago Blackhawks, who are - objectively speaking - the weakest team remaining in the 24-team field. At least in the West, they are. At the time of the stoppage, the Blackhawks were last in the Central Division with only 72 points. 

Now the Oilers play in the Pacific, which was the weaker of the West’s two divisions. The only three teams not invited to Edmonton all hailed from the Pacific. The Oilers were in 2nd place at the stoppage, with 83 points, and curiously had a losing record in regulation here at home. However, while they were 1-2 vs. Chicago in the regular season, both losses were on the road. They won the only home game. Edmonton clearly will have the two best players on the ice in this series - Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

The Blackhawks should feel fortunate to even be in a playoff scenario. Clearly they were not preparing for a postseason run when they were sellers back at the league’s trade deadline. Furthermore, this is a team that was 26th in expected goal differential. Quite frankly, the ‘Hawks just aren’t very good. 10* Edmonton

10* Under Heat/Nuggets (1:05 ET): Back in March, the Heat’s goal was very simple - secure home court advantage for a first round playoff series. Miami was 27-5 SU at American Airlines Arena while just 14-19 SU on the road. So whomever the first round opponent ended up being - likely Philadelphia or Indiana - it would have been a big edge for the Heat to have the homecourt edge. Same for Denver out West as they were 25-8 SU at home compared to just 18-14 SU on the road. Now that we’re in a “bubble” and home court advantage no longer applies, where these two teams finish in their respective conference means less. 

Still - both want the best possible first round matchups. Denver is currently 3rd in the West, but could still finish as low as 7th if things broke poorly. This is a deep team with six players averaging double figures. Leading scorer Nikola Jokic was diagnosed with COVID-19 while at home in Serbia, but is expected to be fine for the start of the season. Depth will be bolstered by the fact 7’2” Bol Bol seems ready to go. Something that may surprise you about these Nuggets is they were tied for 5th in points allowed. 

I don’t really trust either side, especially Miami, to consistently shoot the ball well away from home. When the Heat traveled to Denver back in November, they shot 36.9% and lost by 20 points (109-89). It’ll be closer here as you shouldn’t underestimate the Heat’s defense either. They own an identical defensive efficiency rating to Denver. Both teams were in a slump, shooting-wise, before things got shut down. Like I said in the analysis of the Utah-NO game, I expect scoring to go down league-wide in Orlando. 10* Under Heat/Nuggets 

10* Dallas (9:05 ET): The Mavs were better than their record prior to the season being put on pause. They were 7th in conference, with a 40-27 record, but also had the West’s 3rd best per game point differential (+6.1) by a wide margin. Something else to like about them is the fact they boasted a 21-12 SU road record. That was better than all but three teams. Bottom line: if you’re looking for a so-called “dark horse” team to make a deep run into the playoffs this summer, Dallas may be your team. 

Houston was 6th in the Conference at the time of the shutdown, just three games up on the Mavs in the loss column. As alluded to above, the Rockets +3.7 per game point differential can’t match that of the Mavs. They also weren’t as accomplished on the road, which is a big deal now that every game is being played in Orlando. The Rockets will also be closely monitoring the health of Russell Westbrook, who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier in the summer. (Westbrook is currently listed as probable as of Monday night). 

I love the Mavs’ offensive efficiency numbers. Who wouldn’t? They were tops in the league in that department and moving forward it will be interesting to see if they can maintain said efficiency. I like the Mavs and expect them to come out and make a statement in their first game. 10* Dallas

10* Chi White Sox (8:05 ET): The White Sox have a nice little edge for Friday’s series opener in that they were off Thursday. Meanwhile, Kansas City was in Detroit. The White Sox came into 2020 with a lot of hype, but are just 2-4 even after they blanked the Indians 4-0 Wednesday. Still, the market has their respect as they opened as a fairly decided road favorite for tonight’s game. The White Sox were road favorites of -125 to -175 just SIX times all of the L2 seasons. They went 5-1 in those games. 

It also helps Chicago that they have Dallas Keuchel on the bump here. Keuchel did not go long (5 ⅔ IP) nor did he have many K’s (only 1!). However, the White Sox did win his first start 10-3 (against Minnesota) as Keuchel allowed only two runs on three hits. Keuchel has good career numbers vs. the Royals and he’s got a streak of six consecutive quality starts against them. In the only meeting last season, he struck out 12 in 6 IP while giving up just two runs on three hits. 

KC has played all seven of its games on the road and is 3-4. Tonight’s starter Kris Bubic will be making his big league debut. It’s a tough spot starting opposite someone like Keuchel and facing a lineup that had yesterday off. I just don’t think the Royals are very good and the road team should roll here. 10* Chi White Sox

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): Last night saw the Braves finally break through against the Rays with a convincing 7-4 victory here at home. They’d lost each of the previous two days, both in Tampa, 14-5 and 5-2. Now they can earn a series split with another victory here at Truist Park. I like their chances of doing so and the (early) sharp money seems to agree with me! 

Max Fried is the starter Thursday for Atlanta. His first start of the year saw him allow just two runs and two hits in five innings. The Braves won that game, 5-3 over the Mets. Though he’s never faced the Rays, Fried is 3-0 in three previous IL starts with a 2.55 ERA. I like that. It should also be mentioned that yesterday was the Rays’ first road game of the season and it was the most runs they allowed in any game to date. 

The Rays’ have their own promising southpaw on the mound here in Ryan Yarbrough. Like Fried, he looked good his first time out. But Yarbrough failed to pick up the victory, keeping him winless since August of last season. That’s a stretch of nine starts. His Interleague resume is not as good with a 5.74 ERA in eight appearances. Go with the Braves in this one. 10* Atlanta

10* Over Red Sox/Mets (7:07 ET): This has been a somewhat unique series in the sense that the road team has won every game. Also, all three games have seen exactly 11 total runs scored. The Mets won the two games at Fenway 8-3 and 7-4 while last night the Red Sox struck back with a 6-5 win here at Citi Field. The two games in Boston did NOT go Over the total as the O/U line was 11.5. Last night’s did as the number was much shorter due to deGrom starting for the Mets. The number isn’t quite as low tonight, but I’m still going Over. 

Boston had actually dropped four in a row before rallying to win last night’s game. They’ve got Martin Perez set to start tonight and he did not look good the first time around, giving up five runs in five innings and that was against lowly Baltimore. Red Sox opponents have scored an average of 6.0 rpg this season. This game is a National League park, but remember that teams no longer send their pitcher up to bat thanks to the universal DH rule.

On the bright side for the Red Sox, the six runs they scored last night were the most in any game since a 13-2 win over Baltimore to start the season. Mets’ starter Steven Matz did look good in his first outing of 2020, but the team’s bullpen is in shambles right now (6.39 ERA) and has already blown two games. They’ve also allowed at least one run in every game so far. Offensively, I have less concern about the Mets, who have scored 20 runs in this series and had 15 hits yesterday.  This one should find a way to get Over. 10* Over Red Sox/Mets

10* Under Jazz/Pelicans (6:35 ET): Utah was 4th (41-23 SU) in the Western Conference at the time of the stoppage. They’d won five of six games. Of course, it was one of their own (Rudy Gobert) largely responsible for the stoppage in the 1st place, not that things wouldn’t have been shut down anyway. Over the next eight games, the Jazz will simply be playing for seeding as they could finish as high as 2nd or as low as 7th, with somewhere “in between” the more likely result.

New Orleans is a team that has far more at stake over the next eight games as they’re simply trying to get into the playoffs. As long as they finish 9th and within 4 games of 8th, they’ve got a shot at a “play-in” scenario. Of course, all eyes are on Zion Williamson, who was away from the team for 12 days due to a family emergency and four-day quarantine. Williamson returned to the bubble and practiced both Tuesday & Wednesday, however, he’s currently listed as a “game-time decision” for the opener. 

Obviously, if Williamson were to miss this game it will have a substantial impact on the line. But even if he does play, don’t expect him to be up to his usual standard. For Utah, they’ll be without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovich and his 20.2 PPG. All three previous regular season matchups between the Jazz & Pelicans went Over, but that doesn’t matter much now due to the unusual circumstances. Whether or not Williamson plays, Under is the call as I expect both sides to be rusty. 10* Under Jazz/Pelicans

6* LA Angels (10:10 ET): As I predicted, the Angels had little difficulty with the Mariners last night. They never trailed and really broke the game open in the bottom of the fourth. The Angels scored in six of the final seven innings and ended up winning 10-2. A key ended up being Anthony Rendon, who reached base safely three times while homering. In yday’s analysis, I cited Rendon making his 2020 debut as being huge for the Angels’ lineup. Rendon, who was signed away from Washington in the offseason, led MLB in RBI’s last season. 

Both of these teams started their seasons 1-3. But clearly they’re not even as the Mariners are likely set to have a bad 2020 while the Angels are hoping to find themselves in the playoff mix. Seattle’s pitching staff has allowed 6+ runs in every game so far (31 total in 4 games). They go with the unproven Justin Dunn on the mound tonight. No Mariners’ starter has lasted longer than 4 ⅔ IP so far and only one (Gonzales) has an ERA below 10.00. 

Angels starter Andrew Heaney has just one win in nine tries vs. Seattle, but did pitch well in the season opener. He went 4 ⅔ IP and allowed just 1 run and 2 hits. He had 6 strikeouts and no walks. While the Angels lost 7-3 (MLB’s 1st extra inning game under the new rules), it was certainly not the fault of Heaney. LA is 14-8 the L2 seasons as a home favorite of -175 to -250 and I expect them to continue to roll in this series. 6* LA Angels

9* Oakland (3:05 ET): Colorado is now 3-1 and that’s largely owed to the fact they’ve given up just eight runs total on the season. Of course, no discussion about the Rockies can omit the wild home vs. road splits the team often goes through. Coors Field all but ensures the Rockies’ pitching staff will never be among the league’s elite. However, this group has held its own on the road in 2020. At least so far. 

German Marquez is starting today for Colorado. He pitched well in the season opener, giving up just one run on two hits in 5 ⅔ IP. However, that was the one game the Rockies lost (1-0 to Texas). Marquez has a solid history when pitching on the road, especially in Interleague Play. But I’m not not buying him nor the Rockies today. This is a team that went just 28-53 on the road last year. 

Typically, Colorado’s offense dies down when they leave the thin air of Denver. They did manage to score eight runs last night, but that was as many as they scored the previous three days combined. Last year’s .230 team BA on the road was MLB’s worst. Here the Rockies will face Frankie Montas, who pitched the A’s to an Opening Day victory last Friday. He allowed just one run in four innings. The A’s are still 45-26 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 even after yday’s loss and they are 73-47 in day games the L3 seasons. They came into 2020 with much higher expectations than Colorado and should get revenge for last night’s defeat. 9* Oakland

7* LA Angels (9:40 ET): Both teams wrapped up their first series yesterday and neither got the result they’d hoped for. Los Angeles was shutout 3-0 in Oakland while Seattle lost 8-5 at Houston. In the case of each team, they lost three of four in their first series. But coming home, look for the Angels to have the decided edge on Tuesday as there was at least some optimism for them coming into the 2020 season. Even with the expanded playoff field this year, there’s little hope for a poor Mariners team.

Despite getting shutout, LA did actually outhit Oakland yday. The offense only scored 11 runs total in the four games at Oakland, but should be getting a boost tonight as Anthony Rendon appears ready to make his season debut. Rendon, who led MLB in RBI’s LY playing for the Washington Nationals, was the Angels’ key FA signing in the offseason. The Angels should also do better offensively thanks to a suspect Seattle pitching staff which has given up 6+ runs in every game so far. Starting tonight’s game for them is Justus Sheffield, who was winless w/ a 5.53 ERA in eight tries last season. 

The Angels will counter with Patrick Sandoval, who had a winless 2019 himself. But he was a rookie. I look for some improvement from him, at least for tonight, as the Mariners don’t have a very strong lineup. Seattle has lost 36 of its last 51 games vs. a LH starter. Meanwhile, the Angels are 5-0 their L5 vs. LH starters. 7* LA Angels

10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): Each team has started its season 2-1. The Twins, I was on Sunday, and they delivered a 14-2 victory. St. Louis lost Sunday, 5-1, in a failed attempt to sweep Pittsburgh. A second straight series on the road does them no favors here while the Twins will certainly be happy to play their home opener as they begin a stretch of eight straight games at Target Field. Veteran Homer Bailey makes his debut for the club and he should quickly fall in love with a Twins offense that will support him.

The Twins set a MLB record for home runs a season ago and have had no problem hitting the longball so far in 2020. The team has 7 HRs so far, 4 of them coming in the last game. In both wins, they went for 10+ runs Monday they face Carlos Martinez, yet another pitcher coming in off a near two-year absence (seems like there’s been a lot of those this year). Martinez is a two-time All-Star, but it’s a big test facing this Twins lineup on the road.

The Cardinals have lost four straight interleague games when priced as the underdog as they are also just 1-6 the L7 times they’ve been off a game where they were held to two runs or fewer. The Twins are 7-0 the past 7 Tuesday games and have a better record than the Cardinals the L2 seasons when coming off an off-day. 10* Minnesota

8* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): So the Pirates were able to give 1st year skipper Derek Shelton his first career win on Sunday as they avoided a sweep in St. Louis. In that game, Shelton actually got into the season’s first argument w/ an umpire (at a social distance!) and that seemed to inspire the Bucs a bit. However, this isn’t a team I’m very high on for the 2020 season and you should expect them to lose the home opener on Monday to a team they struggled mightily against last year. 

Like Pittsburgh, Milwaukee dropped two of three in its first series. In the Brewers’ case, it was to the Chicago Cubs. The offense was held in check most of the weekend, especially Sunday when they had only three hits. Two of the Brew Crew’s best hitters - Yelich and Hiura - went a combined 2 for 25 in the three games. But this is a spot where the offense - and team - should bounce back. The Brewers were 15-4 vs. the Pirates LY and have beaten them six straight times.

Milwaukee also seems to have the starting pitching edge for tonight’s opener. Adrian Houser was pretty serviceable LY for the Brew Crew and is a better option than what the Bucs have at their disposal right now. With Archer and Taillon both out for the season, Pittsburgh’s starting rotation has the least depth this side of Baltimore. Brault gets the call Monday and he was winless in five tries vs. Milwaukee last season. 8* Milwaukee

10* Over Braves/Mets (7:05 ET): The first two games of the series have gone Under with the Mets winning the opener 1-0 followed by the Braves bouncing back yesterday with a 5-3 victory that went to 10 innings. But Jacob deGrom isn’t pitching tonight (he started for the Mets Friday) nor do I think we’ll see the likes of the pitching performances we got from Steven Matz and Max Fried yesterday. Remember that the DH is in play for the National League this season. That should theoretically lead to an increase in scoring. I like tonight’s ESPN matchup to go Over the total. 

Starting for the Mets tonight will be Rick Porcello. This will be his first ever start as a NL pitcher after spending 11 years with the Tigers and Red Sox. While Porcello did win 14 games in ‘19, he also posted a 5.52 ERA. Opponents hit .291 against him in the final 22 starts. Another still ongoing issue for the Mets remains the backend of the bullpen. Closer Diaz blew yet another save opportunity on Saturday, which was an ongoing theme last season. The Braves offense, which didn’t manage much in the first 18 innings of the season, should finally get going tonight.

Sean Newcomb gets the baseball here for Atlanta. His numbers were “so-so” last year and he’s 3-3 in seven career starts vs. NY. He worked mainly as a reliever last season, but did have a high WHIP (1.867) when he started. After two low-scoring games, I see this as an opportunity for both offenses to really get going. The Mets were 44-26-6 Over in division games LY. 10* Over Braves/Mets

8* Minnesota (2:10 ET): This rubber match of the first series sees the Twins and White Sox both looking to establish early season supremacy in the American League Central. Minnesota took the first game by a score of 10-5. But it was Chicago’s turn to put up double digit runs yesterday in a 10-3 triumph. While the White Sox are the trendy dark horse pick in the division, let’s not forget who won it last year. That would be the Twins, who set a MLB record for home runs along the way.

Quality pitching has obviously been scarce in the first two games, but Kenta Maeda will look to change that as he makes his Twins’ debut on Sunday. Maeda went 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA for the Dodgers in 2019. Those aren’t impressive numbers, but a 1.07 WHIP was and tells me he was deserving of a better fate in terms of wins and losses. Something to keep in mind about the Twins is that going into yday they’d beaten Chicago 37 of 52 times including five straight here on the South Side.

Chicago goes with Reynaldo Lopez in the rubber match. He did not have a good 2019, finishing with a 5.38 ERA and 1.457 WHIP. His numbers were a bit better at home, but the team still won just 14 of his 33 games overall and Lopez made just 15 quality starts. In three starts vs. the Twins, he was knocked around badly, giving up 20 runs in just 15 IP. 8* Minnesota

10* Under Bologna/Lecce (11:15 AM ET): There’s not much at stake here on the Bologna side of things. They’ve been in poor form recently, resulting in them being 12th in the Serie A table. Meanwhile, it’s a far more dire state of affairs for 18th points Lecce, who did win Wednesday but still need a couple more victories to avoid relegation. I’m calling for Sunday’s match to be a bit lower scoring than what the oddsmakers think.

It should be pointed out that Lecce’s recent win came at the expense of Brescia, a side already doomed to relegation. The three goals scored by Lecce were their most in any contest since a win over Napoli back on February 7th. Since play resumed, they’ve been held to 1 or 0 goals six times. On the bright side of things, they’ve held the opposition to one goal or less in four of the past five matches. Note that in one of those they fell victim to an “own goal,” which was the decider in a 2-1 loss to Genoa.

Bologna’s recent efforts resemble that of a team with little to play for. They’ve gone five games without a win, though they certainly played well in a 1-0 defeat to Atalanta, who has set the Serie A record with 95 goals this season. Toss aside last week’s miserable 5-1 loss to AC Milan and Bologna hasn’t conceded more than two goals since the restart. But they’ve also now been held to 1 or 0 goals in 9 of the previous 12 matches including each of the last three. 10* Under Bologna/Lecce

10* Francisco Trinaldo (9:05 ET): This is a lightweight fight (155 lbs) scheduled for three rounds. Trinaldo comes in with a 25-7 record while Herbert is 10-1. The key to this fight, at least in my opinion, boils down to Trinaldo’s experience at the UFC level. 

Trinaldo has been fighting for the promotion since 2012. He’s won B2B fights, including one back in March, a unanimous decision over John Makdessi. Herbert is making his UFC debut here and that’s obviously a big jump from previous competition. He in fact just quit his day job so that he could become a UFC fighter full-time. HIs last fight was back in October 2019.

Though he was actually outstruck in his previous fight, Trinaldo has excellent striking numbers throughout his career. He dishes out far more than he absorbs. While Herbert’s last several victories have all come by knockout, that was against lesser competition. Trinaldo will obviously need to guard against the knockout here, but I just don’t believe Herbert has what it takes to grind out a three round victory at this level. 10* Francisco Trinaldo

10* Texas (4:05 ET): The Rangers prevailed in the season opener last night and as you can probably tell by the 1-0 score, it was a game with little offense. Both they and the Rockies managed only three hits in the contest, which was the first in the Rangers’ new retractable roof stadium. The “old” park in Arlington was known as one of the more “hitter friendly” venues in MLB. It remains to be seen if this new one will be a different story or if last night was simply an aberration.

Texas didn’t even get a hit until the sixth inning last night, but that can be attributed to them facing German Marquez, a pitcher that was sensational on the road last season. This afternoon they’ll face Jon Gray, whose numbers away from home aren’t nearly as good as Marquez’s. Expect the Rangers to score lots more in this game compared to yesterday.

The Rockies’ .230 team batting average on the road last season was MLB’s worst, so last night’s poor performance at the plate shouldn’t come as too big of a surprise. This team was also a horrendous 28-53 on the road in 2019. They’ll face Mike Minor today. Minor was the Rangers’ best pitcher in 2019 as he set a career-high with 14 wins and made the All-Star team. The Rockies have lost 23 of their last 28 road games with a total of 9 or 9.5.  10* Texas

8* Oakland (10:10 ET): Not enough people appreciate what the A’s have accomplished the last two seasons. They won 97 games a year ago as well as 97 the year before that. Both seasons saw them lose the AL Wild Card Game. Over the course of a traditional 162-game season, I do not believe Oakland is capable of staying with hated Houston. But in this truncated 60-game campaign that we’re about to embark on, I do believe that they have a shot at winning the AL West. At the very least, it should be a third straight playoff appearance.

The Angels are hoping for better luck in 2020 after they lost 90 games last season. For the last few years, this franchise has been “Mike Trout and little else.” The shortened season plus some offseason acquisitions have Halos’ fans thinking their team might be ready to contend for the postseason this year, but I’m not convinced (even with Joe Maddon as the new manager). As has been the case these last several seasons, pitching remains suspect in the City of Angels.

LA will start Andrew Heaney in Friday’s opening game. His WHIP was much better on the road than at home for the 2019 season. But he failed to win either start vs. Oakland, both of which were at home. The top three hitters in the A’s lineup all produced 30+ HRs and 90+ RBIs last year while cleanup man Khris Davis led the AL w/ 48 HRs in 2018. Look for starter Frankie Montas to get the job done here as he was a dynamite 12-4 last year (2.63 ERA, 1.115 WHIP) including 4-0 at home (6-1 TSR) and he beat Heaney & the Angels (priced -215!) in his final start. Oakland closed last season on a 37-15 run. 8* Oakland

10* Cincinnati (6:10 ET): Playing in a wide-open National League Central, the Reds are a team many seem to be high on this year. Count me in among the believers. While it remains to be seen whether or not the 60-game season is a help or hindrance to their cause, Cincy was a team due to improve anyway after finishing with only 75 wins in 2019. They were 12 games under .500 despite only being outscored by 10 runs over the full season - a differential that would be indicative of an 80-win club. I think they can win the division this year.

I believe that the Reds will have the best starting pitching of any NL Central team. Getting the baseball here on Opening Day will be Sonny Gray. Gray was 7th in NL Cy Young voting for 2019 as he finished with a 2.82 ERA and 1.084 WHIP. The Reds won 12 of his 16 home starts and in the L10 starts overall, Gray never allowed more than 3 ER. The Reds lineup is improved for this season with the additions of Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos upping the power quotient. 

Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers are NOT a good baseball team. They were outscored by 333 runs last season and won only 47 games. I’d forgotten how bad that run differential was and had to go to multiple sources to confirm it! Matthew Boyd gets the start Friday. While the southpaw did start in 11 of the team’s 47 wins, he seemed to falter a bit down the stretch. This line has been bet down and honestly I don’t understand why. The Tigers were outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road last year. 10* Cincinnati

10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas (9:25 ET): Both teams have been going Over a lot recently (three straight for Vandy and five straight for Arkansas). But when facing each other, Under has been the way to go in the past. The last four head to head meetings have all stayed Under including a 75-55 Hogs’ win in Fayatteville two months ago. Look for this 1st round SEC Tournament matchup to do the same. 

Arkansas has basically been going Over in almost every game this year. Not only do they come into the SEC Tourney on five-game Over streak, the Razorbacks are 15-2 Over in conference play this season! The Vandy game was one of the two that stayed Under obviously, a 73-59 loss at Florida on 2/18 was the other. Of course, this is a team that played FOUR overtime games in the regular season (helps w/ Overs) as well. The L5 games have been far higher scoring than normal for the Hogs, averaging 164.8 PPG, which is way up from where they are at for the season (145 PPG). The recent numbers aren’t likely to hold. 

While not on campus, the SEC Tournament does take place in Nashville, giving Vanderbilt a slight boost. The Commodores finished last in the regular season though w/ only three conference wins. Two of those three came in the last eight days in upsets over Alabama and South Carolina. The Commies averaged 85 PPG in that pair of victories, which is highly unlike them as they average only 71.7 PPG for the season. They too are “due” for a downturn in scoring. They’ve shot less than 40% in conference play this season! 10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas

8* Nebraska (8:30 ET): Look, there’s no sugarcoating how badly Nebraska has been beaten up by the rest of the Big 10 this year. The Cornhuskers not only enter the Tournament as the lowest seed, but also short-handed due to the suspensions of Burke and Mack. With their last win coming all the way back on January 7th, they clearly are not long for this event. It’s a 16-game losing streak they're on right now.

But Indiana happens to be the classic “overvalued” bubble team tonight. If you believe in Joe Lunardi, the Hoosiers are currently one of the “last four in” the field of 68. They would be the 10th team representing the Big 10 in the NCAA Tournament. Because of the “must-win” nature that they face right now, bettors have jumped on IU here and driven the line up to a far higher place than it should be. I don’t see the line getting any bigger, so jump in and play now. 

Indiana has beaten Nebraska twice this year, but both wins were by single digits. The Hoosiers have a problem outside of Bloomington in that they only average 60.8 PPG. Incredibly, they did not win a single “true” road game during the regular season (0-12). Ask yourself - do you really want to lay double digits with a team like that? The Hoosiers have dropped three of their last four games and were held under 60 pts in two of the losses. 8* Nebraska

10* Arizona (5:30 ET): Is it really true that Washington was once ranked in the Top 25 this season? I swear that it is! The Huskies even opened their season by beating Baylor. They got as high as #21 in the polls before the “bottom dropped out” and that “bottom” just so happened to be “conference play.” Going into last week, UW was just 3-13 SU vs. the rest of the Pac 12 and two of those victories came back in January. Two wins last week are not enough to convince me that this team is ready to make a move in the conference tournament. 

Arizona can be prone to some truly awful shooting nights. But I believe this team is MUCH better than its 5th place regular season finish in the Pac 12 would seem to indicate. There’s a case to be made that on any given night the Wildcats are as good as any team in the league. Even though they underachieved and (like Washington) are no longer ranked, I still consider Arizona as a Top 20 team and a real “darkhorse” in the NCAA Tournament. 

This is a revenge spot for the Wildcats, who dropped the regular season finale (at home) to Washington by a score of 68-62. They went into that game as 10-pt chalk. It was one of their “bad shooting nights” as they finished just 35.1% from the field despite shooting a reasonable percentage from 3-point range. Still a top 15 team in defensive efficiency, I’ll call for the Wildcats to shoot the ball MUCH better from inside the arc here. I can’t see Washington pulling a third straight upset after going 1-10 SU its previous 11 games. 10* Arizona

10* Under Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): As far as the O/U goes in this matchup, something is going to have to give. Orlando has gone Over in an incredible 11 straight games, a sharp departure from the way most of their season has gone. The Magic have spent the balance of the year near the bottom of the league in points per game scored while simultaneously ranking near the top in PPG allowed. Conversely, you have Memphis having gone Under in their L6 games after spending so much of their season putting up big point totals. 

Consider for a moment that Orlando still ranks 28th in the league in scoring (106.2 PPG), despite the 11 straight Overs, and they are also #4 in points allowed (107.2). They had been 30-22-1 Under this season before the current run of Overs began. It’s been dramatic increases on BOTH sides of the floor recently w/ them averaging 118.2 PPG and allowing 116.8 PPG. How can this be explained? Honestly, I’m not sure! But after averaging 120.8 PPG these L11 contests, they’re bound for a “cooling off” period. It’s not as if there’s been some radical transformation in personnel. 

Memphis has been playing great defense of late, giving up an average of just 95.4 points the L5 games. Only one time during that stretch have they allowed more than 101 pts and that was to Dallas, who boasts the most efficient offensive attack in the league this season. The Grizzlies have been massive overachievers this season, winning 34 times despite being favored in only 18 games. When favored (as they are tonight), the Under has gone 12-6. 10* Under Magic/Grizzlies

10* Iona (7:00 ET): I thought Iona underachieved this season, but now they have a chance to atone for that in what looks to be a wide-open MAAC Tournament in Atlantic City. The Gaels’ regular season ended with three consecutive losses, but all were either by three points or less or in overtime. That’s almost par for the course for a team that was favored in the majority of its games this season only to end up with a losing SU record (11-16). But the irony of the three-game losing streak is it placed them in the bottom half of the tourney bracket (seeded 7th) and away from top seed Siena. In the first round, they face a Canisius team they swept in the regular season!

Canisius finished second to last in the MAAC with a 7-13 SU conference record. They are just 12-19 SU overall. While the Golden Griffins were generally pretty good as underdogs (14-5 ATS), they failed to cover at Iona (+2.5) and were then blown out in the rematch 86-65 as a 1.5-pt home favorite. They are 0-4 SU/ATS vs. Iona the L2 seasons. So while Iona obviously would have loved to avoid playing in the first round of this tournament, Canisius is definitely not a bad matchup.

Canisius did end the regular season w/ B2B wins, but they came against arguably the two weakest teams in the MAAC (Niagara, Marist) and one of those wins was by a single point. The Golden Griffins hadn’t won B2B games since mid-January prior to the current streak. They came into March having lost 11 of 13 games and BOTH wins were by 1 point! I have no unearthly idea how they were able to beat Niagara in the regular season finale as they shot below 40% overall (including 5 of 21 on 3-pt attempts) and made only 8 FT’s. Iona’s luck changes here!  10* Iona

7* Pittsburgh (7:08 ET): Thanks to the Capitals losing last night, the Penguins stayed within six points of the division lead. But the news isn’t all good in the Steel City. Passed by the in-state rival Flyers, the Pens are now in third in the Metro and have dropped B2B games. Both losses came at home over the weekend, 5-2 to the Caps and 6-2 to the Hurricanes. While they have to hit the road tonight, at least they’ll be facing the last place Devils, who don’t present the same kind of challenges compared to the L2 opponents. 

The Penguins’ only two wins in their last 10 games came against Ottawa and Buffalo, two teams that are out of contention just like New Jersey is. While Devils do come into Tuesday having scored a total of 10 goals in B2B wins, they still have their fair share of issues. They are just 5-9 SU this season following a win by 2+ goals. They beat the Rangers Saturday by a score of 6-4. They are 12-19 SU after giving up 4+ goals in their previous game.

Despite being division rivals, these teams haven’t met since November. The Penguins took the last meeting by a score of 4-1. Despite the money line being somewhat inflated here, I still think it’s a good price on the favorite, given the situation. New Jersey has simply not demonstrated an ability to play consistently well over any sustained period of time. 7* Pittsburgh

8* Northern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Northern Kentucky came into yesterday knowing that whomever the opponent was, the Horizon League Championship Game would be an opportunity for revenge. The Norse have lost only two games since the start of February. One was a two-point loss to regular season champ Wright State. The other was a shocking 30-point loss to UIC. Surprisingly, they find themselves with the opportunity to avenge the more shocking defeat as UIC upset top seed Wright State in yesterday’s semifinal round. 

Of course, NKU also had to handle its own business in the semifinals yesterday. They did just that, beating Green Bay 80-69 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Norse weren’t necessarily dominant, but they got the job done. They went ahead for good with 9:52 left in the game and now look to make the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the last four years. They’d been regular season champs each of the past two seasons, so make no mistake about it - this has been the dominant program in the Horizon League.

When the Norse lost 73-43 (at home!) to UIC back on Feb 16th, they had to endure one of the most wretched shooting nights of the entire College Basketball season. They connected on only 22% of their total field goal attempts and were 4 of 32 from three-point range. Meanwhile, UIC shot 50% overall and was 11 of 20 from behind the arc. Needless to say, that kind of shooting discrepancy isn’t happening again here. Northern Kentucky beat UIC by 16 in the season’s first meeting and should roll in similar fashion tonight. 8* Northern Kentucky

8* Colorado (10:35 ET): Going by goal differential, which I believe is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team’s actual won-loss record, the Avalanche are “head and shoulders” the best team in the Western Conference this season. They’ve outscored their opposition by 47 goals this season. The only other team in the conference with a differential higher than +15 is the one the Avs are chasing in the Central Division (St. Louis), who is at +31. Keep this in mind when it comes time to handicap the playoffs. 

Los Angeles has picked a curious time to play its best hockey of the season. They’ve won a season-high five straight including a shocking 7-3 win over Minnesota on Saturday. But the Kings are still a last place club and shouldn’t be taken all that seriously. They are certainly not in Colorado’s class and I’m expecting the home team to get a serious “reality check” tonight.

The Avs just won here in LA a few weeks ago (2-1), avenging a 3-1 loss they suffered in Denver the week prior. Will it really be a season sweep by the road team? Yes. The Avalanche have dominated sub-.500 foes, going 11-2 SU in such games in the second half of the season. They just won in San Jose last night and have 30 more points than the Kings on the year. 8* Colorado

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): It’s been a topsy-turvy race all season in the NHL’s Pacific Division, which Vegas now leads on the strength of a 10-2 run in their L12 games. But the lead is still only two points over Edmonton, which is where the Golden Knights will be tonight. They won in Calgary last night, 5-3, a nice rebound from their 4-0 loss in Winnipeg two days prior. But pulling off an “Alberta sweep” should prove to be too difficult as the Knights have won here only one time in franchise history. This is their first visit of the season. 

The Oilers come into tonight’s showdown having won four of five. They easily defeated Columbus here at home Friday by a score of 4-1. This is a team that’s had to play six of its last eight games on the road. Tonight is the first time they’ve gotten to play two in a row at home since 2/19-2/21. It’s also a revenge spot as they lost 3-0 out in Vegas on 2/26. Early in the season, Edmonton did go out to Sin City and record a 4-2 victory. 

 While you’ve got to tip your cap to the way Vegas has played lately, the Oilers have been every bit as hot recently. Connor McDavid has 15 points in the eight games since he returned from injury. Goaltender Mikko Koskinen made 45 saves in the win over Columbus. If there was a time where the Golden Knights were likely to “slip up,” it would be here as they’re in the second night of a back to back and facing a revenge-minded team. It’s been over a month since Vegas last won B2B road games. 10* Edmonton

8* Northeastern (8:30 ET): The second of the two Colonial semifinals is NOT the matchup anyone expected as the 6-seed Northeastern faces the 7-seed Elon. Elon ensured that William & Mary would not make their first ever NCAA Tourney, beating the 2-seed 68-63 as a 7-pt dog yday. In the nightcap, Northeastern upended 3-seed Towson, but what was most interesting about that quarter final battle is that the lower seeded team (N’eastern) was the betting favorite (-3.5). They won 72-62. 

Elon is actually playing its third game in as many days here, which puts them at a pretty distinct disadvantage. Before last night’s upset over William & Mary, the Phoenix had to come from behind to defeat James Madison 63-61 in the 1st round of the tourney on Saturday. JMU finished in last place in the CAA this year, so that less than impressive win made Elon’s upset yday all the more surprising. Prior to Sunday, no team seeded 5th or lower had pulled an upset in the CAA Tournament since 2011. The fact we had two teams do it is noteworthy!

Again though, Northeastern’s win on Sunday should NOT be considered an upset as they went off as the betting favorite. Now it was an upset when Elon beat N’eastern on Feb 1st 74-69. They were 7-point dogs, but playing at home and they shot a ridiculous 61.4% from the floor. This is a neutral setting (Washington D.C.) and before yday, Elon had failed to cash in seven straight neutral court games. Northeastern did win the season’s first meeting 77-68 and should win by a larger margin tonight. 8* Northeastern

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The premise of this play is pretty simple. Atlanta shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anyone. Sure, Charlotte has actually played WORSE than its 22-41 SU record when measured by point differential. But they still are better than the Hawks and have covered six straight games coming into tonight. Their last game was an outright win over Houston, 108-99 as eight-point home dogs. Four of the six games in the ATS win streak have been against teams with a .614 or better win percentage. 

Atlanta (19-46 SU) has the worst record in the Eastern Conference, so for Charlotte this is a drop in class compared to previous opponents. The Hawks have been as bad as ever recently, going 0-3 SU/ATS their L3 games including a 17-point loss at Memphis Saturday night where they shot just 33.7% from the floor. Leading scorer Trae Young has been battling the flu. 

Defensively, the Hawks are as bad as it gets. They’ve allowed 117 or more points in seven straight games and 11 of the last 12. For the season, they are 28th in defensive efficiency and dead last in points allowed. Charlotte can exploit this with Terry Rozier, who is having a career year. Atlanta’s health issues extend beyond Young battling the flu and the bottom line is this team should never be expected to win by any kind of margin. 10* Charlotte

10* Ga Southern (7:00 ET): The Sun Belt Tournament gives a tremendous amount of preferential treatment to the teams that finished at the top of the regular season standings (as more “mid-major” tourneys should). The top two teams get triple byes into the semifinals, which take place in New Orleans, and prior to that all games are at campus sites and hosted by the higher seed. Here we’ve got the #5 seed Georgia Southern hosting the #8 seed Louisiana (who had to beat Arkansas State Saturday just to get here).

Louisiana benefited from the home court advantage rule against ASU on Saturday, winning 73-66 as a 3.5-pt favorite. While five Ragin Cajuns finished in double figures, they only led by one in the final minute. Neither team shot well, though Louisiana did a much better job at converting its free throw opportunities. Important to keep in mind that the Cajuns are a below .500 team (14-18 SU) that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are only 3-11 SU on the road while being outscored by 11.7 PPG. Take away the games where they were a home favorite and Louisiana’s record falls to 8-18 SU and 9-14-1 ATS. 

Ga Southern comes into the Sun Belt Tourney off a 1-pt loss, which should have them plenty motivated here. The loss was at home last Tuesday, to Arkansas State, and saw them blow a 10-point lead in the final minutes. The good news is that the Eagles are 9-3 off a loss this year and 9-5-1 ATS when playing on 3+ days rest. They were 12-pt favorites when they hosted Louisiana earlier this year (won by 20), so this is a great value we’re getting. They also beat the Ragin Cajuns by 7 in Lafayette. 10* Ga Southern

10* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons lost again on Saturday, but after falling behind by as many as 22 points, they made it close and covered for me as 8.5 point underdogs against Utah. The final score was 111-105. One important thing to point out is that while it was the 10th loss in 11 games for the Pistons, seven of those have been by double digits and they’re 4-0 ATS the L4 games. Tonight finds them getting points against one of the worst teams in the league and it’s a revenge game as well. 

The Knicks have had a wild week, one that saw major changes in the front office and massive revolt by its core fanbase. After Leon Rose officially became team president, the Knicks won two straight games, one of them coming against Houston as a 10-point dog. But they’ve subsequently lost B2B games (both here at home) and are now just 2-8 SU the L10 games (not much different than the Pistons). Other than the fact Detroit is playing in the second game of a back to back and on the road, I don’t really understand why NY is the favorite here. 

Even after factoring in the home court advantage, my numbers say the Knicks should NOT be favored in this matchup. They have a -7.5 net efficiency rating while the Pistons are -3.8. Even if you want to give the Knicks a little “extra boost” for being rested, I still don’t see how you get to this number. The Knicks aren’t favored all that often and the last seven times it’s happened, the number has always been three points or less. 10* Detroit

10* Over Iowa/Illinois (7:00 ET): While these two teams are both considered safe for making the NCAA Tournament, they’re each off a loss. Obviously, you don’t want to head into your conference tournament on a losing streak. But that will be the reality for either the Hawkeyes (who lost 77-68 at home to Purdue on Tuesday) or the Fighting Illini (who lost 71-63 at Ohio State on Thursday). What I see taking place tonight in Champaign-Urbana is a high-scoring game. Take the Over. 

I have to admit that I do have some reservations about Iowa entering the NCAA Tournament. While one of the premier teams in the country at the offensive end of the floor (7th in efficiency), they are just 88th in defensive efficiency and that’s traditionally not a good sign this time of year. Of course, those kinds of numbers also seem conducive to producing lots of Overs. Despite poor shooting from both sides (around 37%), the game vs. Illinois still went Over. I look for the Hawkeyes to shoot a lot better in this game.

The winner of this game will finish 4th in the Big 10 standings and thus get the final double-bye for the tournament. So plenty is at stake in this one. Illinois held Ohio State to 37.5% shooting on Thursday but still couldn’t get the job done in Columbus. Iowa is a tougher team to defend as they shot 50% in the first meeting and made 10 three-pointers en route to a 72-65 victory. The Over is 5-2 for Illinois following an ATS loss. 10* Over Iowa/Illinois

10* Under Lightning/Red Wings (5:05 ET): A franchise-record 11-game win streak took the Lightning nearly to the top of the Atlantic Division. But they quickly regressed after that, losing five of their next seven games. Even a 5-3 win over the first place Bruins yesterday leaves TB seven points back of the division lead. But they have a golden opportunity to further trim that deficit as they face the worst team in the league today. They have beaten the Red Wings 16 straight times in the regular season. 

I can’t think of a single metric that doesn’t consider Detroit the worst team in the league. They have the fewest points (37), worst goal differential (-120), scored the fewest goals (138) and given up the most (258). In most cases, they aren’t even close to the second worst team. While they did beat Chicago 2-1 on Friday, the Wings had lost six in a row prior to that as well as 10 of their previous 11 games. Obviously, oddsmakers are keenly aware of the mismatch that exists here and the money line is basically “unplayable.”

But I think the total offers tremendous value this afternoon. I already mentioned that Detroit is by far the league’s lowest scoring team. In 9 of their last 11 games, they’ve been held to two goals or less. The Lightning see their goals per game average drop on the road, so I wouldn’t look for a repeat of yesterday when they put five on the board. Note that one of those came on an empty net. The Under is also 7-1 the L8 times the Lightning have played in the second game of a back to back. 10* Under Lightning/Red Wings

10* Over Lakers/Clippers (3:35 ET): The Lakers are going for their second marquee win in the last three days. Friday saw them defeat Milwaukee 113-103 (potential NBA Finals preview?) right here at the Staples Center. LeBron and company have been in “full control” of the Western Conference much of the season and have opened up a 5.5 game lead over their closest competition. That “closest competition” is who they’ll be facing Sunday, the Clippers, who are on an impressive six-game win streak right now. 

The average margin of victory during the Clippers’ six game win streak is 17.0 PPG. Only one of those six wins has been by single digits. The team is 10-0 SU this season when its full roster is intact and right now is as healthy as its been all year. They just beat Houston 120-105 on Thursday, making it look easy against the Rockets’ “small ball” lineup. The Clips are 2-0 against the Lakers this season including a win on X-Mas. 

So this is a game the Lakers must take seriously. Being that it’s on National TV, you know they will. The Clippers are averaging 118.1 PPG at Staples Center this season and have scored 120 or more four times during the current win streak. They are prone to defensive lapses however as last Sunday they gave up 130 points to Philadelphia. The Lakers can score too as they are averaging over 114 PPG. While the two previous meetings this year have stayed Under, this one is going Over. 10* Over Lakers/Clippers

10* Chelsea (10:00 AM ET): What a difference a single fixture can have! Chelsea had been “feeling the Blues” (pun intended!) until ousting Liverpool from FA Cup competition. Sure, it’s pretty clear that some malaise has set in w/ the Liverpool club, but they are still on track to set a Premier League record for points. By defeating them 2-0 Tuesday, Chelsea received a much needed “shot in the arm” as they try and remain in the EPL’s top four. Look for that huge win to have a carryover-type effect when they return to Premier League action on Sunday. 

Everton is currently 11th in the table. It’s a tricky spot as they are well clear of relegation status, but also not really a threat to catch Chelsea for the top four (top four teams qualify for Champions League). Their YTD goal differential of -5 speaks to substandard play. Really it’s been the definition of mediocre though as they are 3-3-3 the past nine matches. But that includes an 0-2 record against the top two teams, Liverpool and Man City. The Toffees were able to play to a 1-1 draw last week vs. Man City. 

Coming off the clean sheet win over Liverpool, I just don’t see how Chelsea loses here in Stamford Bridge. While it’s true that their prior form (1-2-2 in Feb) hadn’t been that good, they just beat the best that the EPL has to offer. Plus this is a revenge situation for a 3-1 loss back in December. They also want to hold onto their tenuous 4th place lead. There are injury issues for both lineups, but moreso for Everton. 10* Chelsea

10* UC Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): The second place team in the Big West concludes its regular season Saturday night and couldn’t have asked for a better opponent as it’s the last place team in the conference Cal Poly. When these teams met earlier in the year, UCSB won by 18 on the road as they held the Mustangs to 28.3% shooting. Compounding problems for the underdog tonight is they’ve lost six in a row and given up at least 77 points in five of those games. This should be a very easy win for UCSB. 

This game has some major seeding implications for UCSB. The Gauchos could clinch the #2 seed in the Big West Tournament with a win, but could fall precipitously down the standings with a loss. The team they are tied for second with is Cal Northridge and they swept the regular season series from the Gauchos. But again, UCSB couldn’t have asked for a better opponent in this spot. 

It’s tough to ignore the kind of defense UCSB is playing right now. They just held Cal State Fullerton to 53 points Thursday as they held on for a two-point win. The Gauchos are allowing just 64.1 PPG this year at home where they’ve gone 12-3 SU. Incredibly, Cal Poly is 0-16 SU away from home this year and lost those games by an average of 13.2 PPG. They lost Thursday 80-73 at Long Beach State and are just 5-22 ATS the L3 seasons following a game in which they allowed 80+ points. 10* UC Santa Barbara

8* Puck Line Buffalo (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line play where I am backing the Sabres at +1.5. There is obviously an inherent danger in playing against the hottest team in the league. The Flyers have won eight in a row to tie the Capitals at the top of the Metro. You have to hand it to them. All but one of those eight victories have come in regulation and by multiple goals. Losers of five straight, Buffalo hardly seems like the team that would end Philly’s win streak. But I see them doing no worse than a one-goal loss tonight. 

While the Flyers are at the apex of their season, the Sabres are at their nadir. This is the longest stretch they’ve gone w/o gathering at least one point in four years. Star Jack Eichel has zero points in his last six games, the longest stretch of his five-year career w/o a point. While things appear to be one-sided here, I like the insurance of the added 1.5 goals. 8* Puck Line Buffalo (+1.5)

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons have not played well over the last month or so. They’ve lost 9 of 10 w/ the lone victory coming by two points (at Phoenix) eight days ago. But they have covered three in a row and tonight are catching the Jazz in the second night of a back to back. This being a home game is another obvious edge for the Pistons, who (predictably) are far more competitive here in the Motor City. 

Detroit has basically been in this same price range for each of those last three games. They last played on Wednesday when they lost to the Thunder 114-107 as a nine-point home dog. They dug themselves a sizable hole in the first half but were able to erase it, which impressed me. What wasn’t impressive was the Pistons defense as they allowed OKC to shoot better than 60% from the field. That won’t happen again here. March has been a good month for the Pistons as they are 25-8 ATS the L3 seasons.

Utah won in Boston last night 99-94. That’s a really impressive win and was the fourth in a row against an Eastern Conference team. But before that, they’d lost four in a row (all at home). This is their third road game in four nights and fourth in the last six nights. The situation is not on their side here. The Jazz are just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games as favorites. 10* Detroit

10* Dallas (2:05 ET): The Stars appeared poised to make it a three-horse race (w/ St. Louis & Colorado) in the Central Division, but a four-game losing streak has not only knocked them off the pace but also slimmed their lead for third place. This afternoon sees them welcoming in Nashville for a critical game as the Predators are just trying to break into the playoff field as they are currently two points back of the Wild Card. These teams just met in Music City Thursday with the Preds turning in a 2-0 shutout. 

One thing the Stars do very well is not give up many goals. In fact, only one other team (Boston) has given up fewer on the season. The problem has been scoring goals as the Stars actually rank very close to the bottom of the league (26th) in that regard. That issue certainly reared its ugly head Thursday in Nashville where they were blanked for the fifth time this season. But three of the previous four games saw them score at least three times. 

Both goals allowed on Thursday came via the power play. Penalty killing has been an issue of late for the Stars as they’ve allowed NINE PP goals in their L9 games. However, they’re still doing an excellent job 5 on 5 and should be particularly stingy here as they give up just 2.2 goals per game on home ice. Nashville had dropped three in a row itself before the win Thursday and it’s been almost a month since they won on the road. I think this is where the Stars circle the proverbial wagon. 10* Dallas

8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): Throughout this season, I have NOT been as high on Auburn as the pollsters. The Tigers clearly benefited from being one of the last unbeatens in the country, just like the Duquesne team I successfully faded last night, but in similar fashion (to Duquesne) there has been “sputtering” down the stretch as four of the Tigers’ six losses this season have come over the L6 games. They just got beat at home Wednesday 78-75 (as a 12-pt favorite) by Texas A&M. 

Tennessee will be honoring its senior class today, fresh off an upset at Kentucky earlier in the week. The Volunteers won 81-73 in Lexington as an 8.5-point dog, which followed a big win last weekend (here in Knoxville) against Florida. Speaking of seniors, UT’s John Fulkerson has led the way the L2 games w/ 49 points. Some other good news for the Vols is that they are 2-0 ATS this season after scoring 80+ pts the previous game. 

I think it “speaks volumes” that Tennessee is favored here, even at home. The KenPom ratings list Auburn as the 39th best team in the country and my own personal power ratings are pretty much in line with that (#33). Tennessee is holding visitors to just 58.1 PPG here in Knoxville and in addition to having a chance to defeat their former HC (Bruce Pearl), the Volunteers have a shot at avenging a 73-66 loss from earlier in the year where they blew a 17-point lead. 8* Tennessee

6* Puck Line Vancouver (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am backing Vancouver +1.5 goals. The Canucks are desperate right now, having lost four straight. Despite this, the playoffs very much remain in reach as they are still tied for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. They’ve generally been pretty consistent at home (where they’re 20-8-4 SU) and I don’t see them doing any worse than a one-goal loss tonight. 

Colorado is a team I’ll likely be high on come playoff time. They have the best goal differential in the Western Conference (+49) and recently put together a seven-game win streak. But they’re off a loss here and a rather stunning one at that as they fell as -410 home favorites to Anaheim on Wednesday. That was an overtime game, so the Avs still got a point, extending their point spread to nine games.

While the Canucks have been strong at home, the Avs have admittedly been just as strong on the road (23-9-2). Colorado brings a franchise record 9-game road win streak to Vancouver tonight, so something will have to give. Interesting is that six of the Avs’ last seven wins have been by one goal. They are dealing with many injuries right now and eventually that will catch up with them. I give the Canucks a great shot at taking this game. 6* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5)

10* Under Magic/T’Wolves (8:05 ET): Just six days ago these teams met in Orlando and the Magic won 136-125. They haven’t won since. It’s a three-game losing streak heading into this rematch in the Twin Cities. I played against the Magic on Monday when they lost outright at home to Portland 130-107 as a seven-point favorite. That was my 10* Game of the Week. Now the Magic will be involved in this week’s top total. I can’t imagine this game will be anywhere close to as high scoring as that first meeting. 

The Over is 9-0 in Orlando’s previous nine games. That’s quite the streak for a team that has spent the balance of the season near the bottom of the league in scoring while also ranking at the top in points allowed. They still are only averaging 105.4 PPG while giving up only 107.1. They are way over those averages during this 9-game Over streak and oddsmakers have been slow to keep up. But tonight’s game figures to be the highest O/U line for any Magic game this season. 

Minnesota comes into tonight off B2B wins including a huge upset of New Orleans on Tuesday that I was on. The T’wolves shot 55.7% from the floor in that game and then 50% in Wednesday’s win here at home vs. Chicago. I don’t see them matching those numbers tonight nor do I see Orlando shooting as well as they did last Saturday against the T’wolves (54%). 10* Under Magic/T’wolves

10* New York (7:35 ET): Depending on what closing line you got, the Knicks may or may not have covered the spread in their last game. They lost 112-104 to Utah Wednesday night. The spread opened +7.5 but closed +9. Regardless of your outcome there, there’s no denying NY played well in its previous two games, clear wins over Chicago and Houston, the latter coming as a 10-point underdog. They get to stay at MSG tonight where they’ll host an OKC team that’s on a 5-game ATS losing streak.

After suffering a humiliating 47-point loss at Milwaukee on Saturday night, the Thunder lost again by double digits (109-94) to the Clippers on Tuesday. They finally got back into the win column Wednesday in Detroit where they won 114-107. But they did not cover the nine-point spread. OKC’s 5-game ATS losing streak has taken them down to 37-24-1 on the year, still a league-best, but it’s clear there’s a “market correction” taking place w/ this team right now. 

Case in point, this is just too high. While the Thunder are 21-8 ATS on the road this season, but the average spread for them in those games has been +2.5. There just haven’t been many games, save for the last one (where they failed to cover!), that they’ve been asked to lay this many points. Oddsmakers have taken notice of this team that has overperformed expectations in 2019-20. Despite being 18-11 SU on the road this year, the Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 0.2 PPG. Take the points. 10* New York

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): Other than #3 Dayton (who has completely dominated this conference), no other team from the Atlantic 10 is considered a safe bet to make the NCAA Tournament. Two teams vying for second best in the conference meet Friday and the winner could have a case for the Big Dance. Richmond is the hotter of the two, having won 8 of its last 9 games. The lone loss during that stretch was by 4 pts at St. Bonaventure. Tonight the Spiders travel to face a Duquesne team whose number they’ve really had through the years. 

Duquesne was actually one of the last remaining unbeaten teams in the country. They started out 10-0 SU but are just 11-8 since. I personally never took them very seriously, although they have played Dayton tough on two different occasions. The Dukes also just beat VCU three days ago, 80-77, but needed OT to do so in what was their third straight win by 4 points or less. Two of those have been overtime games. The Dukes have been among the most fortunate teams in the entire country this season w/ NINE wins coming by six points or less.

As alluded to above, Richmond has owned this particular A-10 rivalry. They are 22-2 SU the L24 times facing Duquesne while also going 18-6 ATS. The teams have not previously met this season. But Richmond has clearly been the more impressive team in conf play, going 13-4 SU w/ a +9.3 PPG scoring differential while Duquesne is 11-6 and only +1.5 PPG. The Spiders beat Davidson 80-63 earlier in the week and are 7-1 ATS this season after a game where they scored 80+ pts.  10* Richmond

8* Oregon (11:00 ET): Since picking up a huge overtime win at Arizona two Saturdays ago, the Ducks have played a “light schedule.” They’ve played only one time and it was a 69-54 win at Oregon State last Thursday. They’ll conclude the regular season w/ a pair of home games they definitely “should” win - this one and vs. Stanford on Saturday. Plenty is still on the line, not just for seeding purposes in the NCAA Tournament, but the Ducks are also competing for a Pac 12 regular season championship. They currently trail UCLA by one game in the win column. 

California has little to play for this week, though they’ve shown some grit recently by pulling three outright upsets in their last four games. Two were last week as they beat Colorado 76-62 (as an 8.5-pt dog) and Utah 86-79 (as a 1.5-pt dog). But both wins came in Berkeley. While they did win at Washington State the previous week, that’s the Bears’ ONLY “true” road win of the entire season (1-8 SU) and Wazzu is hardly on par with Oregon.

Two days after they went to Wazzu and won, Cal lost by 35 at Washington. Lack of offense has been a real issue for the Bears when they leave campus as they are averaging a paltry 54.8 PPG away from home. That’s a real problem for tonight as not only has Oregon won 20 straight games in Eugene, but they are averaging more than 80 PPG here this season. This one turns into a rout in a hurry. 8* Oregon

10* Houston (8:05 ET): The Rockets certainly weren’t expecting their 6-game win streak to end Monday when they visited New York. But it did as they fell 125-123 as a 10-point favorite. That’s a game they should have won. But now they turn their attention to the Clippers and ending what is the league’s current longest win streak at 5 games. I like their chances of doing so. 

Houston has beaten LA two of the three head to head meetings this year and led by five in the final minute of the one loss, which came at Staples Center on 11.22. Because they are at home, Houston should be the favorite here in our eyes. Yes, they did lose to the Knicks, but the Rockets are every bit as hot right now as the Clippers. During its six-game win streak, Houston beat Boston twice. They are not only 16-9 SU vs. .500+ teams this season, they are also 16-9 ATS in those games. 

I like what the Rockets are doing with their “small-ball lineup” right now and while they are often (rightfully) maligned for their defensive play, the Clippers have shown they can have bad defensive games as well. They just gave up 130 pts to the 76ers Sunday, the third time in less than a month they’ve allowed that many in a game. Houston is #2 in the league in both scoring (118.9 PPG) and offensive efficiency. They can certainly make the Clippers pay for a bad defensive night. 10* Houston

9* Washington (7:05 ET): The division leading Capitals figured they’d be getting a tough challenge from the Penguins at this point of the season. Sure enough, the Pens are only four points back of them in the Metro standings. But Philadelphia is even closer, now just one point back after winning seven in a row. So for Washington, tonight’s game is hugely important as they look to maintain first place. They face a Rangers team that has cooled off all of a sudden w/ three straight losses, the last two coming at home. 

New York is still stuck in 7th place in the Metro, which is where they’ve been most of the season. They are three points out of the Wild Card, but would also need to jump Carolina. They’d won 9 of 10, but then ran into the aforementioned Flyers, who swept them in a home and home. Then came a 3-1 loss to St. Louis on Tuesday. Making matters worse is the fact the Rangers lost Chris Krieder for 4-6 weeks over the weekend. 

Despite being division rivals, these teams haven’t played since November. That’s good for the Rangers because they’ve lost 8 of the last 10 head to head meetings. They did win the last one, but Washington figures to be a lot more desperate here after they too fell victim to the Flyers last night. Luckily, the Caps are 6-3 SU in the second night of a back to back and 16-5 SU after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game (it was a 5-2 loss last night). 9* Washington

7* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): For much of the 1st half of the season, I told you Tampa Bay was a “sleeping giant.” Their YTD goal differential has always been one of the league’s best this year, plus let us not forget this team had the best regular season in the history of the league a year ago. Sure enough, right after the All-Star Break, the Lightning ripped off a franchise-best 11-game win streak that propelled them near the top of the league standings. Unfortunately though, they’ve since dropped five of six and have fallen nine points back of the first place Bruins, who beat them 2-1 on Tuesday.

Tonight seems like a safe bet for the Lightning to bounce back though as they host Montreal. While the Canadiens are flirting with playoff contention, they remain seven points back of where they need to be. Back to back wins over teams that they are chasing (Carolina, Islanders) have definitely helped the Habs’ cause, but they look to be overmatched here against a team that has beaten them 9 of the last 11 meetings.

The Lightning are 3 for 3 in head to head meetings w/ the Habs this season and two of those wins came in Montreal. The Habs have lost five straight times here in TB where the Lightning are 21-10-2 SU and averaging nearly 4.0 goals per game. It’s not just Montreal, but the entire Atlantic Division that the Lightning have dominated this year. They are 16-4 SU in division games, winning by a solid 1.3 gpg average. They are also 5-1 SU this season following a game in which they scored 1 goal or less. 7* Tampa Bay

8* Under Boise St/UNLV (5:00 ET): This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Mountain West Tournament. Neither team had to win to get here and the winner will (likely) face top seed San Diego State in the semifinal tournament tomorrow. UNLV is the host team of this event (as per usual) and comes in hot. The Rebels have won and covered five straight games, including handing San Diego State its only loss of the regular season. But that’s not the only streak on the line today. Boise State has gone Under in eight consecutive contests.

These teams split the two regular season matchups, each winning at home. UNLV obviously has the edge here by being tournament hosts, but this is hardly a good shooting team. During their 5-0 SU/ATS run, they have made nearly 50% of their FG attempts. But that number figures to come down here. The Rebels are not a good outside shooting team (just 30.9% at home) and the two regular season games vs. Boise State saw them make only 12 of 49 attempts from behind the arc.

Boise State averages 81.1 PPG at home, but only 71.8 on the road. Good for them then that they do a great job defensively at guarding the three-point line, holding opponents below 30% there for the season. Another thing to consider here is that UNLV plays at a very slow pace. They are just 249th (per KenPom) in adjusted tempo this season. Prior to scoring 92 pts against a terrible San Jose State team in the final regular season game, the Rebels had gone Under four straight times themselves. 8* Under Boise St/UNLV

10* New York (7:35 ET): After a four-game SU/ATS losing streak, the Jazz have rebounded to win two straight, beating both Washington and Cleveland by double digits. Those are the two worst defensive teams in the league and sure enough Utah was able to score 129 and 126 pts against them. Another weak opponent is up next on the docket and that’s the “Spike Lee-less” Knicks (ha!). But the Knicks have surprisingly performed well of late, also scoring 125 pts in B2B wins, the latest coming as a 10-point dog here at home vs. Houston. 

New York had lost six straight before its two wins in a row, so their recent form isn’t all that different from the Jazz. Now, over the course of the season, the Knicks have obviously performed a whole lot worse. But a change up in the front office (new team president) certainly seemed to invigorate NY as they led by as many as 21 against the Rockets. It was a similar deal after the coaching change that took place earlier in the season. For the record, the Knicks have covered six of their last eight games against teams that have winning records.

Utah is 5th in the West w/ a 38-22 SU record. But they certainly have issues defensively as they’ve given up 113+ pts in six straight games. That obviously makes it pretty difficult to cover consistently, which is why they are just 2-5 ATS the L7 games vs. sub-.500 teams. This spread is simply too high for a Jazz team that has only been able to cover once in its last six tries as a favorite (four outright losses). 10* New York

10* Providence (6:30 ET): Providence has made an impressive run the last two weeks by going 4-0 SU and ATS. Three of those victories have been upsets as they’ve beaten Seton Hall, Georgetown (on the road) and Villanova (also on the road). This run has the Friars somewhat “solidly” in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) later this month as the current projections have them around a 9-seed. But they can’t afford any kind of letdown here in the final week of the regular season. A strong finish would cement their status. 

As a whole, the Big East is projected to do well on Selection Sunday. There could be as many as seven teams from the conference making the Big Dance. Besides Providence, Xavier is another team fighting to make the cut line. The Musketeers only played once last week and they earned a 3-pt win @ Georgetown. While they failed to cover (were -3.5!), they are still 6-2 SU and ATS the L8 games. Note, however, they needed a 3-pointer w/ 4.5 seconds remaining to beat G’town. Xavier easily could have lost that game. 

This is a rematch from a game played almost a month ago where Xavier won 64-58 as a 4-point choice. In that game, neither side shot well from 3-pt range. Providence had the lead at halftime, but could not hold. At home, the Friars seem to have the advantage though as they outscore opponents by 13.6 PPG here as opposed to a -3.0 PPG differential on the road. That’s a pretty dramatic swing there. The Friars area also 4-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss this season. 10* Providence

8* Puck Line Anaheim (8:38 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the +1.5. The Ducks failed to show up Sunday in a 3-0 loss to New Jersey. That was their second time being shutout at home in the L5 games. What made Sunday’s loss all the more disconcerting is that the Devils had just played the night before and lost in overtime. Also, NJ isn’t very good. The Ducks didn’t bounce back from their last shutout loss to win. But they did only lose by one goal. I’m willing to say they can at least do that again this time and I’ll be taking the puck line (+1.5).

Chicago has won two straight. But the last win (in Florida) did require a shootout. I’ll give them credit for upsetting Tampa Bay as a +195 ML dog the game prior. But before that, they’d lost 8 of 10 w/ one of the wins coming by a single goal. So that means in 10 of the last 12 games they have not won by more than one goal. Hardly inspiring. Keep in mind that this is a last place team as well. Furthermore, the Blackhawks have posted just one win streak of three games or longer in the new year. They are just 1-5 SU after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. (They won 3-2 at Florida). 8* Puck Line Anaheim

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): An absolutely miserable stretch for the T’wolves continued Sunday w/ a 20-pt home loss to Dallas. But remember that the Mavericks are a really good team, one that is much better than its won-loss record and is a top five team in the league by at least two key metrics (point differential, net efficiency rating). Tonight, Minnesota is on the road, but facing a team I feel is overvalued. It’s three straight ATS losses for New Orleans coming into tonight as the marketplace continues to struggle to put an accurate price on them with Zion Williamson in the lineup. 

While two of those Pelicans’ ATS losses came against the Lakers, including Sunday, the other was them failing to cover a double digit spread against Cleveland. That’s arguably the worst team in the league. While Minnesota has had a rough go and is w/o Karl Anthony-Towns, they are better than Cleveland. They’ve covered two of the last three times they’ve been a DD dog, even winning one of those outright (at Miami). Winning at Miami isn’t easy. That was the just the 4th time the Heat lost at home all season.

Minnesota missed 11 of its first 12 shots against Dallas and never recovered. They ended up shooting just 36.4% for the game. They should certainly shoot better here against a Pelicans team that gives up 116.9 PPG. New Orleans has also struggled to make outside shots recently as their best three-point shooter (J.J. Redick) is out for at least another seven games. The Pelicans still have a negative point differential on the year. Laying double digits is not a role well suited for them. 10* Minnesota

10* Baylor (9:00 ET): The last time #2 Baylor was off a SU loss, we grabbed them and cashed a winning ticket. It was last Tuesday when they crushed Kansas State 85-66 as a DD home favorite. The Bears will almost certainly have dropped in the rankings by the time tonight’s game tips off as they fell Saturday in Ft. Worth, 75-72 to TCU (were -9.5) in what was certainly their “worst” loss of the season to date. But just like last Tuesday, I expect them to bounce back in a major way here.

Baylor’s only two other losses this year were to Kansas (current #1 team in the country) and out in Washington in the second game of the season. All of a sudden, after a record 23-game win streak, the Bears have now dropped 2 of 3. But as they showed against Kansas State, this team certainly remains formidable at home. They are 13-1 SU in Waco, winning by an average margin of 14.3 PPG. Getting them as a single digit favorite is a real bargain tonight.

Now Texas Tech presents a far greater challenge than Kansas State did, but the Red Raiders also aren’t Kansas (the only visitor to win in Waco this season). The Red Raiders are off a bad week where they lost to both Texas and Oklahoma (favored in both games) and that will certainly drop them out of the Top 25 when the new rankings are released later today. Back in January, Baylor went to Lubbock and won 57-52 as a 3.5-pt underdog. Following two more sub-60 pt efforts LW, I can’t see TT scoring many points tonight and that’s obviously problematic. 10* Baylor

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): From here on out, almost every game pitting Western Conference teams against one another will have some sort of bearing on the playoff picture. Take this one, for example. Edmonton is in second place in the Pacific Division, but only four points ahead of the ninth place team in the Conference. Nashville is one of three teams tied for the final Wild Card spot. I think the sense of desperation is going to be greater here for the Predators, who are at home. 

The Preds did just drop a game on home ice Saturday, but that was to a very good Colorado club that I consider to be the best team in all of the Western Conference. Before losing that game, Nashville had won three straight here at Bridgestone Arena. Their overall home record this season is a little disappointing, but they’ve played some of their best hockey all season recently in a 10-5-1 SU stretch. Also, take this for what it’s worth - the Preds are 40-12 SU their L52 Monday games. They seem to know how to start the week off right! 

Edmonton comes in off a 3-2 win over Winnipeg Sat night, but that was at home and prior to it, they’d dropped 4 of 5 including road losses to Anaheim and Vegas. This team is just 7-15 SU off its L22 wins. Prior to losing a couple head to head matchups earlier this season, Nashville definitely had the Oilers number, winning 14 of the previous 15 meetings. 10* Nashville