8* Boston (4:05 ET): The Red Sox survived what will likely be their biggest challenge of this series, that being yday's Sean O'Sullivan vs. Chris Archer pitching matchup, coming away with a 6-5 victory. Having now won four of five, the pitching matchup is far more in Boston's favor today. Not that they need many more added advantages against a Rays team that has now dropped 20 of 23 games. Just 11-30 vs. teams w/ a winning record, Tampa Bay is simply just looking to get to the All-Star Break at this point.

Saturday starter Rick Porcello loves pitching at Fenway Park. He's 7-0 in eight starts here (8-0 TSR) w/ a 3.60 ERA and 1.180 WHIP. His last start came here at home on July 4th and while he allowed 12 hits in six innings, he still came away with a relatively easy 12-5 victory against the Rangers. Things were actually a lot easier for Porcello in his last road start, which came against Tampa Bay, as he allowed just one run and five hits in six innings. That was the second time he beat the Rays this season (2.77 ERA). Overall, the Rays are a pretty weak hitting team (2.9 rpg L7 games), so there's no reason to expect anything different this go around. The third time will not be the charm for Tampa Bay.

While "there's no place like home" for Porcello, the road has been unkind to Tampa Bay's Matt Moore. He's 0-3 away from home in six starts (0-6 TSR) w/ a 6.43 ERA and 1.657 WHIP. Now he did pitch very well against the Red Sox his last time out as he delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. But that was at Tropicana Field. In fact, four of Moore's last five starts have been at home and all four were quality. But the one road start saw him give up five runs. He allowed the same number at Arizona back on June 7th. Something to keep in mind here is that the Red Sox are the highest scoring team in the American League.  It's pretty surprising that the Rays are 4-3 head to head w/ Boston this year. But, again, they are 0-2 vs. Porcello. 8* Boston

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Arizona has played San Fran pretty tough in 2016 as the latter is only 6-5 head to head in the season series. Most interesting is that the D'backs pulled off the rare four-game sweep - as the road team - back in April. I talked about how tough that achievement is to pull off in yday's analysis on Pirates-Cardinals, where I backed the home team off three consecutive losses and sure enough, they came through. Alas, the Giants did not do the same when I played them on April 21st (w/ Johnny Cueto pitching!), but they've since taken five of six from their NL West rival and I have them winning again here in Friday's opener. These are two teams that I expect to grow further and further apart in the standings moving forward.

Arizona's unusual home-road dichotomy extends far beyond just playing San Francisco. The team is coming off a pretty terrible 2-7 homestand and is now a horrendous 15-32 for the year at Chase Field. One of their two wins on the recently completed homestand came w/ tonight's starter Pat Corbin on the hill, against the Giants no less, but that turns this into an immediate revenge spot for Jeff Samardzija, who took the loss opposite Corbin on 7.2. Note Samardzija actually allowed fewer runs (4) than Corbin did (5) in last week's matchup, but the Giants bullpen blew the game in the bottom of the eighth. "That is one we let get away," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. Agreed.

Rather quietly, San Francisco has more wins than any other team in baseball right now. Texas could match them Thursday, but there's a lot more to like about a Giants club that ranks sixth in baseball in run differential. I can't say the same about Arizona, who is -44 in run differential and been one of the bigger disappointments in the entire National League this season (somewhat predictable, a lot of people saw that coming). With only four wins in 17 starts, Corbin gives you little to "hang your hat on" here and I expect Samardzija to get his revenge. SF has won 21 of 33 games this year when facing a LH starter and Arizona is giving up a ghastly 7.3 runs per game its previous seven contests. 8* San Francisco

10* Saskatchewan (10:00 ET): These are the two teams that have already had bye weeks. Both are also 0-1. Edmonton, the defending Grey Cup champion, has had two weeks to prepare here after suffering an opening week loss to Ottawa at home. That was a Grey Cup rematch and saw the Eskimos lose 45-37 (as 6-pt favorites) in overtime while getting outgained 569-433. Had it not been for a +3 turnover margin, Edmonton likely doesn't even get into OT. Meanwhile, Saskatchewan was the last team to start its season and also fell at home, 30-17 to Toronto, a game where I won w/ the Under. Despite losing outright, the Rough Riders actually outgained the Argos, 385-245. I'm taking the points here.

If you've followed the CFL at all, then you know the first two weeks have seen underdogs "clean up." All four won outright in Week 1. A favorite finally covered in the final game of Week 2 (Calgary over Winnipeg), which as you know was my 10* Game of the Year. This line opened as the biggest line of the young CFL season to date. It's a clear reaction to Edmonton losing their first game at home and that Saskatchewan finished 2015 w/ the worst record in the league (3-15). But I expect the Rough Riders to keep this one close throughout. Note that they have lost seven of the past nine meetings with the Eskimos dating back to '13. But six of those games have been decided by eight points or less.

Playing in a new offense and coming off an ACL injury which robbed him of his 2015 season, Saskatchewan pivot (QB) Darian Durant really impressed me last week. He completed 31 of 48 pass attempts for 308 yards. He was not the reason the Riders lost the game; it was pretty much the two non-offensive TD's Toronto scored. Remember that Edmonton's defense just gave up nearly 600 yards of offense in its first game on a frightening 9.2 yards per play. So, I expect Saskatchewan to score more this week than they did last. Once again, taking the points is the way to go "North of the Border." 10* Saskatchewan

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET):  The Mercury's disappointing season continued w/ another loss earlier in the week (Tuesday), by three at Dallas. That came on the heels of a 95-87 road win at Atlanta two days earlier where Brittney Griner posted a triple double (10 blocks). What's really upsetting regarding Tuesday's loss, if you're a Mercury fan, is that the team wasted one of its better defensive efforts in recent memory as they held the Wings to "just" 77 points on 36.5% shooting. It was their own offense that failed them, scoring only 74, their second fewest in any game all season. I expect them to bounce back Friday. Lay the points.

Indiana is off B2B losses to start the month, first at home to San Antonio (were nine-point favorites) and then as 11.5-pt dogs at Los Angeles two days ago (did cover). Overall, the Fever have dropped 7 of 10 to fall to fifth in the East at only 7-11 SU overall. They are just 11th (out of 12 teams) in scoring at 79.8 PPG. But it was their defense that was torched Wednesday night by the Sparks, who scored 94 points on better than 55% shooting. In some ways, that game was just the opposite from Phoenix's last game as Indiana wasted a rare strong offensive effort where the shot 53.1% and scored 88 points.

Phoenix is #1 in the league in scoring (but last defensively) and this is a revenge game for them. All the way back on May 18th, in the second game of the season (for both teams), the Fever came out on top at home by a score of 97-93 after outscoring the Mercury 31-22 in the fourth quarter. Seven players scored in double figures for Indiana there, something I don't anticipate seeing again here. Something to keep in mind is that the Fever actually trailed LA by 18 entering the fourth quarter on Wednesday. It was a 20-pt game w/ 6:22 remaining. So we shouldn't let "garbage time" fool us.  This is actually a triple revenge spot for the Mercury, who were swept in the season series last year by the Fever.  Revenge will be sweet Friday night. 10* Phoenix

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Note that this is being written prior to the completion of Thursday night's game, but regardless of the outcome there, I'll be backing the Blue Jays on Friday. Once again, what had been a red hot Tigers team (had won 6 straight!) was quickly extinguished by Cleveland earlier this week. Sure, Detroit did win 12-2 Wednesday afternoon, but that was only after dropping the first two games of the three-game set. Now they have to hit the road to take on another top American League contender, that being Toronto, who comes into this series riding its own five-game win streak. You'll recall that it was around this team last year that the Jays really "took flight" and I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened here in 2016. Their +64 run differential (entering Thurs) is second best in the entire A.L., behind only Cleveland.

Detroit did take two of three from Toronto in early June, but that series took place in the Motor City. On the road this year, the Tigers have been a losing proposition while the Blue Jays are 24-19, averaging 5.1 rpg, here at home. Toronto is one of only three A.L. clubs to be at least four games above .500 both at home and on the road (Cleveland, Texas). Remember that they were able to split w/ the Indians, here at home, snapping the Tribe's 14-game win streak last weekend. They followed that up by sweeping Kansas City right out of town in a rematch of LY's ALCS.

The first time JA Happ started against Detroit this year, things did not go well. He came out on the wrong end of an 11-0 decision, but results such as that have been few and far between for the veteran southpaw this year. He's gone 11-3 in 17 starts (12-5 TSR) and here at Rogers Centre is where he's been most successful (7-1 TSR). Admittedly, his ERA/WHIP aren't that great, but those numbers are even worse for Tigers' starter Mike Pelfrey, who is winless in eight road starts w/ a 1.756 WHIP. Over his L3 starts, Pelfrey has a 5.94 ERA and 2.101 WHIP, yet somehow the team has won all three games! His fortunes turn here in Toronto, however, as the Blue Jays should take care of business. 8* Toronto

   

9* Under Dos Anjos/Alvarez (11:25 ET): This is the main event of UFC Fight Night 90 and a play Under 3.5 rounds. It's for the UFC Lightweight Title (155 lbs) w/ Dos Anjos, the well-decorated champion, defending. This will be Dos Anjos' first fight of 2016; remember he was slated to face Connor McGregor in a champion vs. champion bout, but had to pull out due to a broken foot (which then opened the door for Nate Diaz to shock the world). Let us then not forget how great Dos Anjos is inside the Octagon; he has suffered just one defeat in his previous 11 fights and is coming off a very impressive title defense back in December against Donald Cerrone, whom he stopped in 66 seconds via TKO.

The challenge here should be greater even though Eddie Alvarez actually suffered a recent loss to Cerrone. But that's his only loss in his last six fights and he's bounced back w/ a pair of split decision victories over Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis to earn this opportunity. Things have definitely been a lot tougher though for the fighter who dominated the Bellator promotion at the same weight class. It should be stated that his last four fights, including all three in UFC, have gone the distance. One would have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the last time Alvarez actually stopped somebody, let alone won in convincing fashion.

The "championship rounds" provide an interesting dynamic in handicapping this fight. Yes, seven of the last Dos Anjos' fights have gone to the cards, but only one (where he won the title from Pettis) went five. The fact we are getting an extra half round here above three could be huge. Note he dominated Pettis in winning the title and I believe had he not suffered a torn MCL during training that he would have finished the former champion. I believe the most likely outcome here is an early finish of Alvarez. Meanwhile, the only chance I see Alvarez having is some sort of miraculous early stoppage of his own. Dos Anjos is typically aggressive w/ his striking and lands w/ a high volume. Three and a half rounds is a long time to go and I don't believe we'll see this fight get there.  9* Under Dos Anjos/Alvarez

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET):  This is a cheap price on the Dodgers. OK, recent form shows that the Padres have won four of six while Dodger Blue is off B2B losses. But, let's put things in their proper perspective, shall we? The Dodgers are 10 games up on the Padres in the standings and have a scoring differential that's nearly 100 runs better (+52 vs. -47). Yes, I have touted San Diego starter Drew Pomeranz in the past, including his last start where he held the Yankees to just one run and five hits over 7 IP. Pomeranz still probably deserves better than an 8-8 team start record given his numbers (2.65 ERA, 1.105 WHIP), but that's what happens sometimes when you're on a bad team. The Padres are 0-7 this season in road games where the total is 7.0 or less.

Prior to dropping the B2B games to Baltimore, LA had won 13 of 17 and seemed to be rolling. They held Colorado to just two runs total in a three-game sweep in the previous series. They will start this series by sending Hyun-Jin Ryu to the bump for the first time in 2016. Ryu's return couldn't happen at a better time as the team is still dealing with the loss of Clayton Kershaw. He actually hasn't pitched since the 2014 NLCS as Tommy John surgery cost him all of last season. But in two previous seasons w/ the Dodgers, he is 28-15 w/ a 3.17 ERA. Los Angeles is 27-17 at home this year, by the way, allowing just 3-0 rpg and visitors are batting .219. The L7 games, those averages have dipped down to 2.6 and .190. They are also 19-9 their L28 head to head vs. San Diego, who is giving up 6.0 rpg their last seven contests and a .271 batting average. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET):  The Indians suffered a rare setback yday afternoon, losing 12-2 to the Tigers. While that was their second loss by 10+ runs since Sunday (lost 17-1 in Toronto), it should be noted that they've lost only one other time (Saturday, and I was on the right side there) in their last 19 games overall. They get to stay at home for the final series before the All-Star Break, against the Yankees, who were shut out last night in Chicago. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Outside of the back end of their bullpen, there's just no reason to fear the team wearing pinstripes any longer as they've been outscored by 32 runs this season and really should not be considered a playoff contender. I'd rank them as a bottom five team in the American League. Cleveland is the best that the AL has to offer.

Based on recent efforts, it would appear as if we have a sizable pitching mismatch on our hands tonight at Progressive Field. The Indians' Trevor Bauer has a 1.64 ERA and 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all wins for the team, while the Yankees' Ivan Nova has a 6.28 ERA and 1.675 WHIP his L3 starts, all team losses. Nova was better his last time out, but that was against light-hitting San Diego. Cleveland is averaging a healthy 5.6 rpg at home this year w/ a team batting average of .292. Nova really hasn't looked very good all season (5.04 ERA, 1.418 WHIP) and opponents are hitting .333 against him since his last win, which came all the way back on June 9th.

Meanwhile, facing a team that was just shutout has to sound nice to Bauer, who actually hasn't started a game since June 27th. That's because he was called into duty in last Friday's marathon (19-inning) win over Toronto and held the Jays to only two hits over five scoreless innings. Like most of Cleveland's starting rotation, Bauer is having an excellent year overall as he's made seven consecutive quality starts. There's been only one time all season where he's given up more than 3 ER. At home, his WHIP is a very good 0.992 and his last time starting here saw him go the distance, holding Tampa Bay to one run on three hits while posting a season-high 10 K's. The Indians are 2-0 this season after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. 8* Cleveland

5* France +0.5 (3:00 ET): The tournament hosts only needing to be even after 90 minutes is a nice luxury to have here, even though the price to pay is somewhat steep. Ever since falling behind Ireland 1-0 early (3' penalty kick), France has looked really impressive. They poured it on in the second half vs. Ireland, scoring twice in a short time frame, and then absolutely blitzed and admittedly overmatched Icelandic side, 5-2, a match where I had the 1st Half Over and cashed in the 19th minute (four total goals scored in first 45 mins). Clearly, it won't be that easy here against Germany in the semis, but I feel that Les Bleus certainly won't be losing within 90 minutes. 

Playing in front of a partisan crowd, France doesn't need any extra advantages, but they'll have a big one here and that's being at full strength. Germany, meanwhile, could have as many as four key contributors missing here. Mats Hummels has been booked, so we know he's out and both midfielder Sami Khedira and striker Mario Gomez are injured. Making matters worse is tat Khedira's likely replacement Bastian Schweinsteiger is also probably out. While they didn't concede any goals during the group stage, it's not as if Germany was overly dominant against Ukraine, Poland and Northern Ireland. They saved their best for Slovakia in the Round of 16 (won 3-0), but then narrowly escaped Italy (penalty kicks) in the quarterfinals. Don't discount the impact that match with the Azzurri has on this team here.

France has been the top-scoring side in this tournament w/ 11 goals. Obviously, that's heavily influenced by what they did to Iceland Sunday. Yet, the bottom line is that Les Bleus is unbeaten in their last nine matches overall, including four wins and a draw here at Euro 2016. Yes, Germany is unbeaten in its last six fixtures and has conceded just the lone goal at this tournament. But, short-handed, the Mannschaft are up against it here.  5* France +0.5

8* St. Louis (1:45 ET): Last week, I rode the Cardinals in every game en route to a three-game sweep of the Brewers. This series has proven to be far more difficult as they've dropped the first three games to the Pirates, who are now winners of seven in a row, all on the road. But pulling off a four-game sweep on the road is hard to do and I think the Bucs come up short this afternoon.  Pittsburgh has been very impressive over the course of its win streak (outscored opp by 3.3 rpg), but they have a losing record in day games and will turn to an unknown commodity on the mound in the form of Tyler Glasnow. The line moving makes this a great value play on the home team today.

We'll need Adam Wainwright to step up here, much in the same way he did for us against Milwaukee last weekend. Pitching here at Busch Stadium, the Cards' right-hander delivered seven shutout innings of seven-hit ball. If you had a chance to read my analysis for that particular matchup, you'll recall that I called for Wainwright to bounce back from a rather shaky outing against Kansas City on 6.27. Also, it should be pointed out that save for that one start against the Royals, Wainwright has been pretty good of late. He's allowed 3 ER or less in five of six starts since the start of June. Overall, the team is 10-3 his L13 outings. That includes a 6-4 win against Pittsburgh back on May 7th. Wainwright allowed only three runs in 6 1/3 IP there.

I'm still somewhat stunned that St. Louis is just 18-26 at home this year. This is a club that went 55-26 in its home park last season. They're actually basically even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed at home this season (4.4 vs. 4.4 per game). They led yday, 5-1, and did outhit the Pirates, 12-9. When on a three-game losing streak, the Cards are 16-6 the L3 seasons. Today, they'll face Glasnow, who is making his big league debut. The 6'6" prospect impressed in Triple-A, but control has been an issue for him as three times he led his league in walks and at one point he had a 1.50 WHIP! Look for the Cardinals to avoid the four-game sweep at home this afternoon. 8* St. Louis

8* Toronto (7:07 ET):  I was on the Blue Jays Monday night as they took the series opener from the Royals, 6-2. I should have followed up w/ them last night (laid off the game) as they won again, this time 8-3. They've now scored 40 runs over the course of a four-game win streak, including Sunday's 17-1 demolition of what has been a very hot Cleveland team. Remember last year, this team did not peak until right after the All-Star Break. Could it be a little deja vu "North of the Border?" Perhaps. But I know it won't be deja vu from LY's ALCS (won in six games by KC) as Toronto is poised to sweep the Royals right out of the Rogers Centre.

After winning the World Series last Fall, many (myself included) figured the Royals would regress a bit in 2016. They have, although not to the degree some had anticipated. They are actually still three games above .500, but have a run differential of -23, making them them arguably the biggest "overachiever" in the entire American League during the first half. Based on that run differential, their "expected" win total is just 39. The only teams with larger negative gaps in terms of actual vs. expected wins this year are: Texas (-6) and Philadelphia (-7). As I've stated many times before, the Royals biggest problem this year has been awful play on the road. They're just 16-29 outside of Kauffman Stadium and getting outscored by 1.2 rpg.

Marcus Stroman has been a pretty big disappointment for Toronto thus far, but his last time out was the definition of "hard-luck." He faced a Cleveland team that at the time was on a 13-gm win streak and held them to only one run and five hits in 6 2/3 IP. That was the marathon game that ended up going 19 innings w/ the Indians winning 2-1. This is a better matchup for Stroman, however, as KC comes in averaging only 3.3 rpg its last seven contests (.225 BA). It also appears as if some mechanical issues have been worked out for Stroman. His sinker mostly stayed down vs. Cleveland and not only did he have six strikeouts, he induced 10 groundball outs (only two via flyball). I definitely like Stroman more than Royals starter Ian Kennedy here as the latter has allowed 20 home runs this season and has a 5.37 ERA in 10 road starts after taking a loss to the lowly Phillies his last time out. 8* Toronto

10* Over Orioles/Dodgers (3:05 ET): Baltimore fared a lot better on Tuesday than they did Monday here at Dodger Stadium, winning 4-1 after dropping the series opener by a score of 7-5. But w/ Kevin Gausman pitching this afternoon, you have to figure it will be difficult for Buck Showalter's team to take the rubber match. Gausman has yet to win on the road in eight tries this season and has a 5.02 ERA and 1.488 WHIP to show for it. He was better his last time out w/ a quality start in Seattle, but the O's still lost 5-2. Interestingly enough, eight of Gausman's last nine starts (including that last one) have stayed Under the total. But today's O/U line is lower than all nine previous outings.  Take the Over.

Bud Norris has been quite the revelation for the Dodgers, but this team still figures to be in trouble w/o the services of Clayton Kershaw. Consider that they are 14-2 when their ace is on the hill, but only 34-36 in all other games. Even though Norris enters today w/ a 13-inning scoreless streak in tow (including time w/ the Braves) and has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts (0.98 ERA, 0.873 WHIP), I question just how effective he and the rest of the back end of LA's rotation can be over the long-term. Baltimore's lineup is w/o the DH spot here, but they still should be feared. This team basically averages 5.0 rpg and is tied for fifth overall in runs scored (all of MLB). Norris is "due" for a bad start, in my opinion. This is his 1st time starting in Dodger Stadium since coming over from Atlanta. Though noted as "pitcher friendly," there could be a learning curve at his new home park.

The Orioles know Norris well as he pitched for them from 2013-15. I realize that Dodger Stadium has seen - on average - the lowest scoring games of any venue in all of MLB this season, but the O/U line set here is just too low. There have been only four times this year where the total was 7.5 runs or lower in a Norris start and the Over went 3-1 in those games. As for Gausman, he hasn't seen a total this low for one of his starts since early May. Prior to yday, Baltimore pitching had allowed over 7.0 rpg itself over a seven-game stretch. The Over is 16-5-2 in day games for them this season. 10* Over Orioles/Dodgers

    

10* Over Portugal/Wales (3:00 ET): No one expected Wales to make it here to the semifinals, even though this most certainly is the weaker of the two halves of the draw. Their latest victim was Belgium, who they saw off in very impressive fashion via a 3-1 win last Friday in the quarterfinals. Many bettors are currently "frothing at the mouth" at the chance to bet Wales at the current price seeing as they've flat out looked better than Portugal has to this point. Whereas Wales picked up six points in the group stage, Portugal had to settle for three (drew all three opponents) and has yet to win a single fixture inside of 90 minutes in the entire tournament. However, I'm all over the total, which is where I think the real value is.

Thus far in the knockout stage, there have been only two times where a bet of Over 2 goals would not have at least gotten your stakes back. Six times it would have cashed and there have been four pushes. With four of five matches thus far seeing at least three goals scored (a 1-0 win over Northern Ireland being the lone exception), Wales seems like an excellent candidate to go Over the total. They are the only side besides the recently departed Iceland to have scored in every match thus far. Before France dismantled Iceland in the final quarterfinal Sunday, Wales was the highest scoring side in the tournament.

Much of the focus here will be on the individual battle between Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale. But A Selecao is the deeper team overall and don't be surprised if that plays a role in the outcome. The two sides actually haven't met since a friendly before Euro 2000 and the majority of the talent lies on the attack rather than on the back end. Only Ronaldo (36) has more shots during this tournament than does Bale (21).  Two key players have been booked for Wales, Aaron Ramsey and Ben Davies. However, a key defender - Pepe - may be out here for Portugal w/ a thigh injury. Remember that Portugal was involved in one of the highest scoring fixtures in the entire tournament - a 3-3 draw vs. Hungary.  10* Over Portugal/Wales

5* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets came into this series riding high as they swept a four-game series from the Cubs (repeat of LY's NLCS) here at Citi Field last weekend. But in both games here vs. Miami, they've fallen into deep holes. On Monday, they were fortunate enough to climb out as they erased a 6-0 deficit and stormed back to take the game by a score of 8-6. But they weren't so lucky last night, even though they scored first, as they ended up falling 5-2. The difference there was two swings of the bat by Miami's Giancarlo Stanton, who supplied all five runs batted in for his team. But make no mistake about it, today the Mets are heavily favored for a reason. They have Jacob deGrom on the bump and that alone should be enough to carry them to victory here. 

The Marlins counter deGrom w/ Juan Nicasio, who hasn't had a particularly great first half of the season. That's actually putting things mildly as Nicasio comes in sporting a 5.34 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in his 11 starts. The team has been able to scratch its way to a mediocre 5-6 mark in those games, though Nicasio certainly has made it hard on them. Over his L3 starts, all of which have come on the road, the southpaw has an 8.21 ERA and 2.021 WHIP as he's allowed 14 runs and 29 hits in just 15 1/3 innings of work. Somehow, Miami has still managed to win two of those games. That should be considered "fortunate," as should the fact the team is currently four games above .500. They've been outscored over the course of the season. This three-start stretch for Nicasio doesn't even include a 10-0 loss he took against Pittsburgh. 

Nicasio has also lost both times he's faced the Mets in his career. As for deGrom, he's 3-1 w/ a 2.80 ERA in seven starts against this division rival. He was due for some run support his last time out and got it in a 10-2 win over the Cubs where he did his job as well, allowing just one run and three hits in 5 IP. That was on the heels of five consecutive quality starts where deGrom's offense scored a grand total of THREE times! Overall, he's allowed 3 ER or less in seven straight starts. Thanks to rain in that start vs. the Cubs, he threw only 85 pitches (52 for strikes), so he should be ready to roll here. 5* NY Mets

10* Phoenix (8:35 ET): The Mercury actually had the worst point differential in the entire league prior to an eight-point road win over Atlanta on Sunday. They'll go for a second straight road win tonight in Dallas. The Wings are off a rather embarrassing result their last time out, as nine-point home favorites they lost outright to Connecticut, 86-83. These are the two worst defensive teams in the league so far and they have matching 8-10 SU records to show for it. But it's a double revenge spot for Phoenix and I think that motivation has them prevail tonight.

Dallas is a big reason why the Mercury are at the bottom of the league in terms of points allowed. In a home and home played last month, the Wings scored 100+ pts in a pair of victories. The one in Phoenix went to triple overtime w/ Dallas prevailing 117-111. Two nights later in Dallas, the Wings won 100-90. The Mercury were favored in both games, by eight and three points respectively, so there does look to be some value present here.

Phoenix can definitely score as they are #1 in the league in that department, averaging 88.2 PPG.  Brittney Griner posted a triple double in Sunday's win over Atlanta, including 10 blocked shots (also 27 pts, 10 rebounds). I'm not sure Dallas will have an answer for her this time. Conference games have gone very differently for the two teams w/ Phoenix just 1-8 and Dallas 6-3. The Mercury have been one of the bigger disappointments thus far in the WNBA, but I see them getting back on track w/ another win tonight. 10* Phoenix

10* NY Yankees (8:10 ET): The Yankees took it "on the chin" last night, losing 8-2 on the Southside of Chicago, but I feel the team in pinstripes is poised to bounce back tonight w/ their ace Masahiro Tanaka on the bump. Tanaka has an 11-5 team start record so far in 2016 and a 1.060 WHIP. He's generally saved his best work for the road this season (1.32 ERA/0.902 WHIP in seven starts) and should bounce back from a rough outing against Texas last Wednesday (that the Yanks still won). The money line is telling here as the White Sox are just 2-6 this year as a home dog of +125 or less. While they've won five of six, Chicago's last four-game win streak came all the way back in early May. Road team gets revenge here.

New York definitely had its fair share of chances at the plate last night, but wound up going 0 for 13 w/ RISP. Three errors from shortstop Didi Gregorious didn't help matters either. But the good news is that those issues can be remedied rather quickly. Tonight, they'll face Carlos Rodon, who has a 5-10 TSR and 1.460 WHIP. I can't see him outdueling Tanaka. He has not won since May 22nd, a span of seven starts. He's made only two career starts vs. the Yankees, one decent and one very bad, with the result being a 10.00 ERA. I don't anticipate the fielding issues arising again as this team is pretty average in terms of fielding percentage and Gregorious in particular tends to be sure-handed.

Tanaka is working on an extra day's rest here, which is typically quite beneficial for him. When working on five days' rest, Tanaka is 16-7 w/ a 2.84 ERA in his career. Even though he was touched up a bit his last time out (vs. the Rangers), he still made it through six innings, which was the eighth consecutive start he's done that. He'd allowed 3 ER or less in six of his previous seven outings. We also know how good the back end of the Yankees' bullpen is. So, if Tanaka gets the team to the seventh w/ a lead, then it should be lights out here. Interestingly, the Yankees are 6-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 on the money line this season, so being overpriced is really not an issue. 10* NY Yankees

    

10* Under Mariners/Astros (8:10 ET):  Both of these teams are looking up at the Rangers in the AL West, but still have more than reasonable chances of at least making it into the playoffs as a Wild Card. Houston moved ahead of Seattle in the standings after a 2-1 win last night and I think we'll see another low-scoring game tonight. These division rivals are both in the top four in terms of runs allowed in the American League and have combined for six runs or less each of the last three times that they've played. While Astros starter Dallas Keuchel has suffered through some uncharacteristic struggles this season at Minute Maid Park, he did pitch well in his last start here at home. Seattle starter Taijuan Walker also pitched very well the last time we saw him. Take the Under.

Houston started the season in somewhat of a hole. On May 22nd, they were 11 games below .500. But since that time, they've gone 27-11 and are legit playoff contenders. Much is owed to the fact that 15 times in those previous 38 games, they've held their opponent to two runs or fewer. Seattle could muster very little at the plate last night as they finished the game w/ only five hits while striking out 12 times. Lance McCullers turned in his best effort of the season for the home side and I think Keuchel is in line for a similar type of effort tonight. Keep in mind Keuchel was 17-2 at home in 2015 w/ a 1.45 ERA and 0.902 WHIP. His last start here saw him hold an admittedly weak Cincinnati club to just two runs and five hits in seven innings. He's since gone 2-0 w/ a 3.65 ERA, while getting a ton of run support, something that I do not anticipate being the case here. Keuchel has a 3.09 ERA in 11 career appearances vs. the Mariners. He held them to only two runs in seven innings back on May 7th, in what ended up being a 3-2 loss (would gladly take that same result here). By virtue of being a lefty, Keuchel should do well here against a lefty-heavy lineup. Behind Keuchel is a bullpen which has been the AL's best (2.54 ERA) since May 1.

For Seattle, Walker has been battling tendinitis, but was able to still deliver a quality outing against the fearsome Baltimore lineup on Thursday, holding them to one run on four hits. That came after he held Boston (#1 in MLB in runs scored) scoreless for five frames 11 days prior. Houston has been his most common opponent in his career and in 52 IP, he has 58 strikeouts. I look for another-low scoring affair Tuesday night in Houston. 10* Under Mariners/Astros

9* Under Tigers/Indians (7:10 ET):  Cleveland won again yday, 5-3, improving to an amazing 10-0 vs. the Tigers this season. For Detroit, the loss snapped a six-game win streak and was an all-too familiar result here at Progressive Field. Note that their was a rather lengthy rain delay, so it's a shorter than expected turnaround between games tonight. Once again, the Indians will be sending out one of their best arms, Carlos Carrasco, who like teammate Danny Salazar has been making a case that his name belongs in the discussion for AL Cy Young honors. Carrasco has a 1.14 ERA and 0.803 WHIP his L3 starts after completely dominating Toronto his last time out. But while the pitching matchup seems solidly in their favor, don't be surprised if the Indians struggle to score runs tonight themselves. Take the Under.

Cleveland has now won 15 of its last 17 games overall. They have - by far - the best run differential in the American League at +78. Being #1 in the runs allowed side of the ledger has a lot to do w/ that as the Tribe have given up 28 less runs than the #2 team in the AL (Houston). They were rocked for 17 in an embarrassing loss Sunday, but showed a "return to form" last night by holding the Tigers to just three. Carrasco allowed just one (on a solo HR) in his last start, finishing w/ a season-high 14 K's as he gave up just three hits in 7+ innings of work. That was after he went the distance in a CG shutout of this Tigers team (in Detroit) on 6.25 (allowed only four hits). Earlier this year, he held them scoreless and to just one hit in an abbreviated start (2 2/3 IP) where he left due to injury.

In their 10 losses to Cleveland this year, the Tigers have scored a grand total of 23 runs (that's 2.3 rpg). That's not an encouraging sign whatsoever as the most runs they've scored in any one game is four. I must admit that it's not great that manager Brad Ausmus has decided to go w/ Anibal Sanchez rather than Jordan Zimmerman here, but the Tribe is batting only .239 its last seven games and remember they scored only two runs in that 19-inning marathon on Friday. The Over has been a big moneymaker here at Progressive Field this season and the Tigers have been one of the top Over teams as well. But, for today, I think we'll see a little good ol' fashioned regression to the mean. 9* Under Tigers/Indians

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays certainly ought to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now after snapping the Indians' 14-game win streak (best in MLB this season) Saturday and then drubbing them on Sunday by a score of 17-1. Yesterday's result actually gives the Jays not only the best run differential in their division, but also the third best in the entire American League (+53). Up next is a series with the team that eliminated them from LY's ALCS, the Royals. While these teams may have comparable won-loss records, the respective run differentials are anything but, as KC has been outscored by 14 runs over the course of this season after taking a 7-2 loss to the Phillies yday. This is the first meeting since LY's ALCS and I think - at home - Toronto is going to be very fired up.

Losing to the Phillies 7-2, even on the road, is pretty bad. The Royals actually dropped two of three in Philly over the weekend as they lost the series opener as well. "Pretty bad" is also an apropos way to describe KC's YTD record away from home as it's 16-27, which is worse than every other American League team's w/ the exception of Minnesota. It's by no means a misleading record either; the Royals have been outscored by over a full run per game on the road this season as they are averaging only 3.2 rpg themselves. Toronto, on the the other hand, is one of just six AL teams to have a winning record both at home and on the road. They average 5.0 rpg at Rogers Centre and have totaled 41 hits here the last three games!

Edinson Volquez certainly doesn't give the Royals much of a prayer here. Over his L3 starts, he has a 10.29 ERA and 1.857 WHIP. Yes, he did just toss six shutout innings his last time out. But, the start before that was a complete disaster as he allowed 12 runs in ONE inning! He also was fortunate to get a win on 6.18 vs. Detroit despite giving up five runs. On the road, Volquez has a 5.90 ERA and 1.664 WHIP. He also has a 6.46 ERA in six career starts vs. the Blue Jays (no wins). I definitely like Toronto's starting option (Aaron Sanchez) a whole lot more as he comes in w/ an 8-1 record (10-6 TSR seems misleading) as he comes in off three consecutive quality starts, the last one seeing him allow just one run and six hits in eight innings of work - at Coors Field.  8* Toronto

7* St. Louis (2:15 ET): I rode the Cardinals in every game this past weekend and that move paid off as they wound up sweeping the lowly Brewers at home. Each day, I went through the reasons why I thought it was a good time to "buy low" on the Redbirds. It started with their surprisingly poor home record (still only 18-23), which doesn't seem fair because they've actually outscored opponents at Busch Stadium over the course of the year. They also went 55-26 at home last season, so these "home struggles" are certainly uncharacteristic. Overall, the team now has a +82 overall run differential for the year, which is third best in all of baseball! Thankfully, they've also seemed to "clean things up" in the field as well (they lead MLB in errors). Therefore, I'll continue to ride them Monday as they welcome in the Pirates.

The last time that these NL Central rivals met (last month), it was a St. Louis sweep in Pittsburgh. The Cards won all three games at PNC Park by at least four runs. The Bucs continued to struggle following that series as they would go on to lose eight of their next nine to fall a season-worst five games below .500. But they're now back at the Mendoza Line after a sweep of Oakland over the weekend. That was a series the oddsmakers badly mispriced as the Pirates were actually ML dogs in every game. But while the Bucs have now won seven of nine, six of those wins coming in the underdog role, I still don't like them today.

I certainly think that Monday's pitching matchup favors the home team.  The Pirates turn to Jon Niese, who may have started the year w/ a 5-0 TSR in April, but I was never a believer. His ERA/WHIP have always been a bit high for my liking and lately those numbers have gotten a bit "out of control" (7.31/1.875 L3 starts). That doesn't even include him allowing all eight runs in an 8-3 loss to the Cardinals on June 12th. St. Louis tagged him for 11 hits in 5 1/3 IP there, including two home runs. Niese will be opposed here by Carlos Martinez, who has turned in a 1.06 ERA his L6 starts. He's allowed just 1 ER in his last 20 IP, yet the team has actually lost all three of those games by one run! So, Martinez is definitely "due" here and he did very nearly go the distance against Pittsburgh (lasted 8 1/3 innings) on June 11th, giving up only one run on six hits. With both teams facing a relatively quick turnaround from yday, it's advantage home team. 7* St. Louis

   

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): Save for a stunning 21-2 demolition of the Red Sox on Saturday, the Angels have not been playing well of late. They've lost 11 of 13 games and are in last place in the AL West at 16 games below .500 for the season. They lost 10-5 Sunday, so there goes any "momentum" stemming from the one win. The thing about a game like Saturday is that it's just one game. It skews all the recent numbers. I truly believe that was just an anomaly and not any kind of predictor of future success for the Angels. Coming into the year, this is a team that I wasn't particularly high on anyway. The starting rotation offers little hope on a game by game basis and that's certainly the case Monday in an early start time for the team.

In retrospect, I think that it's safe to say that the oddsmakers had the Rays series with the Tigers mispriced. Tampa Bay, a favorite in all but one game, wound up getting swept. Like the Angels, the Rays have hardly been playing well themselves. They too are a last place team and have just two wins in their last 18 games. But if there's one thing we can look to here its the fact the Rays swept the Halos, in LA, back in May. Also, I need to point out that Tampa was hardly dominated by Detroit. Three of the four games certainly qualified as "winnable." The opener saw them blow a 7-2 ninth inning lead. After being beaten 10-2 Friday, they then dropped a one-run game Saturday and then wasted a perfectly quality start from Chris Archer on Sunday as a 1-0 lead quickly turned into a 5-1 loss thanks to the bullpen.

Hopefully, Monday's starter for the Rays, Matt Moore, can deliver something similar to what Archer did yday. His last time out, he certainly demonstrated that he is capable of doing so. He held Boston, the highest scoring team in all of baseball, scoreless over seven innings and to only three hits. Two of Moore's last three starts here at Tropicana Field have seen him not give up a run. Meanwhile, the Halos turn to Nick Tropeano, who is making his return from Triple-A.  He did finish w/ a season-best 10 K's in an outing vs. the Rays earlier this year, but still lost the game due to giving up seven hits, two of them home runs. Tropeano wasn't deemed effective enough to remain in the team's rotation once before; there's no reason to believe he will be this time around. 8* Tampa Bay

    

8* Miami (8:05 ET): The Marlins suffered a shocking result Saturday afternoon as they had Jose Fernandez on the bump and lost to Atlanta by a score of 9-2. Yes, Fernandez has certainly proven himself to be more fallible on the road over the course of his career, but no one should be losing to the Braves by that kind of margin. Especially considering Atlanta's woeful 13-33 record at Turner Field (worst home record in baseball) this season. Note tonight's game is actually being played at a neutral site - Fort Bragg, NC - as ESPN Sunday Night Baseball has chosen to play the first ever MLB game at a military base in honor of the 4th of July holiday. I'm going with Miami to bounce back as their lack of success against their NL East rival this year makes no sense.

Atlanta is now 8-3 vs. the Marlins in 2016, but just 19-50 in all other games. That doesn't speak well to Miami's future projections, but they have at least been able to split the L6 head to head meetings. For whatever reason, Fernandez has seemed to struggle against only bad opponents and the Braves definitely got to him early yday, not just in the game, but in the count as well. Tonight though, I really like Adam Conley's chances. He's a lefty and Atlanta is only 9-21 in games this season vs. southpaw starters. Conley is known for working fast in between pitches and his walk rate is somewhat misleading due to issuing five intentional passes. He dominated this Braves lineup back on June 22nd, holding them scoreless on four hits over 8 IP. Conley has never lost to Atlanta in four career starts and has a 1.46 ERA in two starts against them in 2016.

Almost every Braves starter has a losing team start record this year and Matt Wisler is certainly a name on that list. The team is only 4-11 when he pitches and a 4.18 ERA certainly hasn't helped his cause. Nor has a 1.499 WHIP his L3 starts. Interestingly, despite all the times these teams have played this season, this will be the first time the Wisler has started against the Marlins. He did give up five runs in 5 1/3 innings to them last August. The Braves are an atrocious 18-38 in night games this season. 8* Miami

8* Seattle (4:05 ET): Here's another team going for the sweep on Sunday. In this instance, I "only" backed the Mariners yday (won 12-6), but the results of this particular series have not surprised me in the least. I say that because I'll continue to question Baltimore until they can demonstrate they are capable of playing better on the road. I've said this many times before, but it bears repeating - the O's schedule so far has been very "home-heavy" (44 of 80 games played at Camden Yards) and their now 16-20 road record should be cause for concern as too should be sending Ubaldo Jimenez to the bump this afternoon. Seattle, who is now only 5.5 games worse than Baltimore in the standings, actually has a better YTD run differential.

In yday's analysis, I talked about how the Orioles starting rotation isn't going to scare anyone. That's certainly the case w/ Jimenez. "Ubaldo's had two good outings in a row," said manager Buck Showalter, "so we hope that continues." The problem there, skip, is that Jiminez still has a 6.23 ERA and 1.887 WHIP for the season. On the road, those marks jump to 8.37 and 2.155 respectively. Another issue Showalter is facing is that these starters simply aren't going deep into games. Usually, he's very good at managing the bullpen, but due to the T.J. McFarland injury he simply does not have a lot of left-handed options to turn to before closer Zach Britton. Baltimore is 1-6 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +150 on the money line.

The long-ball has largely carried this Orioles offense this season, but you'll note that Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma didn't give up any in his last outing, a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh. There, Iwakuma allowed just two runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. His numbers aren't what you necessarily like to see, but I'll project him to get ample support here as in five of the last seven games, the Mariners have finished with 10 or more hits. Meanwhile, there have already been four starts this season by Jimenez where the opponent ended up scoring at least 10 runs. Seattle hit five home runs yday, is seventh in total runs scored in all of MLB, seventh in slugging and 10th in OBP. Iwakuma threw a no-hitter against Baltimore last season. 8* Seattle

6* St. Louis (2:15 ET):  As I had projected, the Cardinals have begun to turn things around here at Busch Stadium. I've been on them in each of the first two games of this series w/ Milwaukee and they've won both, 7-1 on Friday and 3-0 yday afternoon. I think that over the course of the last two days my analysis has made a pretty clear cut case that the Redbirds should have a better record at this point in the season, particularly here at home. They went 55-26 at home last season, but are still just 17-23 here in 2016 despite having actually outscored opponents. Their YTD run differential of +81 is fourth best in all of baseball, so clearly better things SHOULD be on the horizon. I'll call for them to finish off the sweep here.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, is not a very good team. They have a YTD run differential of -66 (5th worst in baseball), scored all of two runs total the L3 games and will be sending out a pitcher who has a 12.71 ERA and 2.295 WHIP his L3 starts. They're also 15-31 vs. St. Louis since the start of the 2014 season. They have yet to win a game this season when they are a road underdog of +175 or higher on the money line. Overall, their road record is just 13-25. The pitcher in question here is Chase Anderson, who has allowed 17 runs in 11 1/3 innings. He's given up 19 hits and issued seven walks during that time as well. In eight games this season against the Cardinals, the Brew Crew have been outscored 48-14 while getting shutout three times.

Another issue for St. Louis this season has been poor defense (lead MLB w/ 64 errors), but they were errorless yday and even turned four double plays. That's certainly a positive sign and I'm sure today's starter Michael Wacha would love to get similar help. Wacha hasn't needed much help in his career against Milwaukee as he's never lost to them. That includes tossing six shutout innings of four-hit ball back in April w/ seven strikeouts. As stated earlier, Milwaukee has done very little scoring of late and all season vs. St. Louis for that matter, so this should be an easy one for Wacha. His offense, factoring in the pitcher they are facing, should definitely provide ample support given that they are 4th in all of MLB in runs scored. 6* St. Louis

10* Under Angels/Red Sox (1:35 ET): When I saw the score of last night's game, I had to hit refresh just to ensure I wasn't hallucinating. In case you missed it, the Angels won 21-2. Yes, you read that correctly. History was made w/ a pair of teammates - CJ Cron and Carlos Perez - combining for 11 hits and 11 RBI's, which is something that had never happened before in game in MLB history. Needless to say, no one saw last night coming as the Angels had lost their previous four games and averaged just 3.6 rpg their last seven. While already a 10-2 game, an 11-run seventh inning was pretty preposterous. The expectation clearly is going to be for another high-scoring game here, but I'll take advantage of that & go Under.

Looking at the final score from yday and the two starting pitchers here, again, it's somewhat difficult to state the case for the Under. But clearly we don't have to worry too much about the Red Sox based on yday, even though it's true that they are the highest scoring team in all of baseball. But after being shutout Thursday, they've been held to just seven runs total the L2 games. Angels' starter Matt Shoemaker has looked better of late, a lot better in fact. He's allowed 3 ER or less in four consecutive starts and not only have all four games stayed Under, so too have each of his L6 trips to the mound where his ERA is 2.14. Incredibly, he's winless during that time (team has scored 4 runs or less in every game) despite a 45-5 KW ratio, but I still anticipate Shoemaker doing his job here as the Red Sox projected lineup for Sunday is a combined 1 for 24 lifetime against him. In two career starts vs. Boston, Shoemaker has not given up a single earned run.

As for Boston's Sean O'Sullivan, I suppose there are some legit question marks. He has a 7.84 ERA/1.839 WHIP in two starts and will be facing a lineup that just scored 21 runs. But, as I already went through, what the Angels did at the plate yday came out of absolutely nowhere. Also, Sullivan's last big league start came almost two months ago. Since that time, he's looked a lot better, albeit in Triple A Pawtucket where he was 4-0 w/ a 2.61 ERA in six starts. I think he will surprise here. 10* Under Angels/Red Sox

9* Seattle (10:10 ET): Personally, I have not been surprised at the results of this series so far. Though Baltimore came in as the hot team (7-game win streak), I've been pointing out basically all season that their schedule has been quite friendly to this point ("home heavy") and that their below .500 road record most certainly "matters." Their offense has cooled considerably in the two games here in Seattle, producing only five runs and 13 hits (2 HR's). The Mariners, meanwhile, came into the series in a pretty good "buy low" situation as they were only .500 (had lost 21 of 32) despite still owning a +39 run differential. In fact, their run differential is pretty similar to that of the 47-32 Orioles (+50). I'll look for those respective differentials to grow even closer after tonight as Seattle makes it three straight over their visitors.

Another reason I have doubts about Baltimore is the dearth of starting pitching. They simply do not have a lot of depth in the rotation or even one strong arm they can consistently rely on. Chris Tillman has the great team start record (14-3), but his ERA/WHIP aren't indicative of a pitcher that should have that kind of record. Tonight, it will be Tyler Wilson on the bump and he has a 4.89 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 12 starts. He's one of two Orioles' starters to be "in the red" when it comes to net units (-0.55) this season, even though no starter has an ERA below 3.71 or a WHIP below 1.25. Wilson allowed five runs and 10 hits his last time out and that was at home against a Rays team that has been struggling badly. I always "tip my cap" to the job skipper Buck Showalter does w/ this bullpen, but right now he's running out of arms, at least lefties, and that cost him last night.

Of course, the Mariners don't care to hear about any other team's injury woes as their own starting rotation is somewhat in shambles. Felix Hernandez is obviously the biggest name missing. But we've seen guys step up, including Wade LeBlanc last night. I'd like to see the same here from James Paxton, whose last three starts have admittedly not gone all that well. But I think a real key is that he hasn't allowed a single home run in any of his last four starts. The O's are too dependent on the long ball, in my opinion. 9* Seattle

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): There aren't a ton of great opportunities to fire on the Padres over the course of a given season, but I feel this is one such time. They beat the Yankees yday, 7-6, and the game wasn't really as close as the final score indicated as the road team scored four runs in the ninth. The Yanks did come to the West Coast off a pair of nice victories over the Rangers, but those took place at home, not the road where they are 16-22 for the year including a lousy 5-11 as a dog in the +100 to +125 price range. There's certainly not much to like about starter Ivan Nova, who checks in w/ a 9.00 ERA and 2.214 WHIP his L3 starts. I'd say to expect the home team to win by a more comfortable margin Saturday night.

Every year, it seems as if there's a select number of "hard-luck" pitchers, guys whose individual numbers indicate their team start records should be a lot better. Here in 2016, you can put San Diego's Drew Pomeranz on that list. A 7-8 TSR is grossly unfair considering a 2.76 ERA and 1.136 WHIP. Pomeranz wasn't leaving anything up to chance his last time out, however, as he delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball against the hapless Reds. The Yankees are certainly not the most formidable offensive club Pomeranz will have faced this year; before scoring those four runs in the ninth yday, they were on pace to score two runs or less for the fifth time in seven games. Remember that they also lose the DH spot from the order in this series because it's a NL park and traditionally one of the most "pitcher-friendly" at that.

Since May 1st, there have only been two times (in 11 starts) where Pomeranz has given up more than 3 ER. Five times he hasn't given up ANY runs and that's while going at least five innings every time and also not allowing more than three hits! The opposition is batting just .190 against him for the year (3rd best average in the N.L.) and his 10.4 K's per nine innings rank sixth. With Pomeranz on the hill, I feel more than comfortable playing the Padres in this price range as they are 4-1 this season when priced at -125 to -150 on the ML at home. Led by Wil Myers, the offense has done its job of late too, averaging 6.1 rpg the last seven contests. 8* San Diego

8* Oakland (10:05 ET): Yes, I may have lost with the A's last night, but that doesn't mean I think that they are mispriced in this series. Remember, I'd had my "finger on the pulse" of this team the L2 days w/ a win ON them (Wednesday, 7-1 over Giants) and then AGAINST them (12-6, again vs. the Giants) Thursday. I don't think that Pittsburgh having an off-day really factored into Friday's result as the A's jumped out to an early 3-0 lead after two innings that unfortunately starter Sonny Gray could not hold. Offensively, the Athletics did little after those first two innings as well. But tonight I have the home team bouncing back as the Bucs have been a shaky road team in this price range (0-3 at +150 to +175) and they have a weak starting pitcher going as well.

Oakland's offense going silent came as a surprise to me as they were facing a pitcher (Jeff Locke) that had really struggled on the road this year and they came in having scored at least six runs in seven consecutive contests (team batting average of .300). Tonight, we'll see how they fare against Chad Kuhl, who picked up a shocking win in his big league debut Sunday night as a +220 money line underdog against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. While that's an impressive note to attach to his resume, Kuhl really didn't pitch all that well as he gave up three runs in just 5 IP and also issued four walks.

The A's will be turning to Rich Hill, who missed all of June due to being on the disabled list. That's too bad because he enjoyed an outstanding May. He's on a five-game win streak, turning in a 1.33 ERA and 0.984 WHIP his last three outings. He's got a 1.76 ERA his L8 starts overall and if you think that this is just a temporary blip; think again as Hill closed 2015 on a pretty impressive roll for the Red Sox, going 2-1 w/ a 1.55 ERA in September. He relies on a curveball which to quote the pitcher himself has been "working well" this season. I don't anticipate the long layoff between starts being a factor here for the A's even though Hill figures to be on a pitch count. He did make on rehab start - in Class A Stockton - and looked good in a 66-pitch effort. Pittsburgh has been one of the bigger money-losers in all of baseball this season, on the road. 8* Oakland

10* Dallas (8:05 ET): Connecticut has been fortunate enough to stay within a couple of generous numbers the L2 games, but I don't think they'll be as lucky here. I took them +16.5 last Sunday in Los Angeles (lost 80-73) and then I was on the Under in their game Wednesday in Phoenix (also a double-digit winner) as they lost 86-75 taking 12 pts from the oddsmakers. That's not all too competitive and with the number slightly lower here, I feel the result will be different this time. Lay the points. 

I have to admit that Dallas impressed me Thursday when they went to Seattle and came away w/ an 83-78 win. That result came on the heels of their own loss in Los Angeles, one where they blew a double-digit halftime lead and lost 89-84 (Note: I did cash them plus the points though, as 10.5-pt pups). They shot only 40.3% against the Storm Thursday, so that's something the Wings can improve upon tonight now that they're back home. The team is finally back at full strength w/ Skylar Diggins and Glory Johnson back in the lineup. Odyssey Sims has been leading the way w/ 15.2 PPG. 

The Sun are not a good team. They are last in the Eastern Conference at 3-13 straight up and those three SU victories have come by a total of eight points. Two of the wins came against San Antonio, who is the last place team in the Western Conference (4-12 SU). They are 10th in the 12 team league in both points scored and allowed. That leaves them w/ a -7.4 per game point differential, which is 2nd worst in the league (Phoenix actually worst). Dallas is second in the league in scoring at 86.4 PPG and has topped 80 pts in eight consecutive games. 10* Dallas

5* Under Italy/Germany (3:00 ET): The reigning World Cup champions have looked every bit the part of favorite here in France as Joachim Low's side has yet to taste defeat here in France with three victories and one meaningless draw to its credit. The latest win came via 3-0 fashion and Germany still has yet to concede a single goal in this entire tournament, the only team remaining in the field that can still make such a claim. However, many are still quick to tout Italy's defense as the best in the draw. They come off a "clean sheet" themselves, perhaps the most impressive result of the entire tournament, that being a 2-0 domination of defending Euro Cup champ Spain. The lone goal that the Azzurri has conceded thus far came in their own relatively meaningless third game. Take the Under here as this could very well be a scoreless draw at the end of 90 minutes.

There have not been more than two goals scored in any Italy match so far in the tournament. The same held true, at least in the group stage, for Germany. They then blitzed Slovakia, but as alluded to earlier, penetrating Italy will prove to be far more difficult. The key here for the Azzurri would be to get the lead. That is something that Germany certainly doesn't want. Few, if any, are more adept at protecting a lead than the Italians, who simply didn't give Spain many chances in the Round of 16. By the way, Italy has dominated this head to head rivalry w/ a 4-0-4 record in the last eight competitive matches. They've kept a clean sheet in half of those fixtures and held Germany to just six goals total.

But what about Italy scoring? We already know that midfielder Daniele De Rossi is out for this game w/ a high thigh bruise.  Also, they'll need the ball to score. So far, Germany has controlled possession 69% of the time in its games, the highest rate of any side in the tournament. Then there's this little tidbit as Low's team hasn't conceded a goal in the last 480 minutes of major tournament play going back to the 2014 World Cup semifinal. If there's no scoring at all here, that would not surprise me. 5* Under Italy/Germany

8* St. Louis (2:15 ET): This will be the second straight day St. Louis gets my endorsement. They beat Milwaukee 7-1 in yday's series opener. In my analysis for that game, I went through some of the reasons why the Cardinals were only 40-38 despite having a +72 run differential that ranked 4th best in all of baseball. Obviously, that scoring margin now looks even better. To rehash from yday, the Cards have not fared well in one-run games this year, going 6-14, which is the worst win percentage (.300) in such contests in all of MLB. They also have routinely hurt themselves in the field. For example, Thursday's game vs. the Royals saw them commit three errors, increasing their MLB-leading total to 62, which in turn has led to 28 unearned runs being scored against them. Friday saw them commit two more, but thankfully it did not hurt them as Milwaukee is simply a team they should dominate, especially at home. Let's go with the home team again this afternoon.

Last year saw St. Louis pitching dominate as they led the league by wide margin in terms of runs allowed (525 in 162 games). This year has seen them allow 335 runs in just 79 games, counteracting the fact that the offense has improved to 5.2 rpg, which is 4th best in all of baseball. But, lately, we have seen the pitching improve. Yesterday, it was Jaime Garcia going eight strong innings (allowed only 4 hits). Today, we get Adam Wainwright, who up until his last start had begun to show signs of turning things around himself. Kansas City, a good home team, got to him Monday, but thankfully Milwaukee is a bad road team and Wainwright has a 2.32 career ERA against them. Four of his last nine starts vs. the Brew Crew have resulted in complete game victories.

Something I also said in yday's analysis was that it's only a matter of time before St. Louis starts to turn things around here at home. They went 55-26 at Busch Stadium last year, but are now just 16-23 here in 2016. But, again, help arrives in the form of a Milwaukee team that is just 13-24 away from home, the NL's second worst road record (Cincinnati). This season has seen the Cards outscore the Brew Crew 45-14 in seven matchups. Starter Jimmy Nelson may lead the Brewers in quality starts (8), but he is 0-5 w/ a terrible 9.51 ERA all-time vs. the Cards. 8* St. Louis

10* Toronto (1:05 ET): Yes, I'm calling for Cleveland's franchise-record 14-game win streak to come to a halt here. Really, it's the ideal situation. Yesterday's game went 19 innings and saw Trevor Bauer, originally today's scheduled started, get called into duty. Bauer wound up going five innings for the win, but obviously will no longer be available here. As of press time, we do not know who will be starting for the Indians today. Note that whomever it ends up being is irrelevant to this play. Either it will be a minor league call-up or manager Terry Francona will have to piece something together out of the bullpen. I realize that Toronto was involved in the same 19-inning game yday, but they have Marco Estrada to lean on here.

I watched the marathon game Friday afternoon and it seemed to me as if the Blue Jays almost conceded in the 19th inning. They sent Darwin Barney, that's their second baseman, to the hill and the result was what you'd expect as he gave up the GW home run to the first batter he saw (Carlos Santana). Having Estrada in their "back pocket" gives the Blue Jays a significant edge on Saturday afternoon though. While his team start record may only be 8-7 this year, Estrada has both a 2.81 ERA and 0.987 WHIP, outstanding numbers. There have been only two starts all season where he has allowed more than 3 ER. Remember that Cleveland could only manage two runs in 19 innings yday. Estrada should dominate whatever "skeleton crew" he faces today.

Meanwhile, I expect Toronto's offense to bounce back here after a disappointing start to the series. They've been held to two runs in the two games so far; the 1st time they've been held under five runs in B2B games in almost a month. After facing the likes of Carlos Carrasco and Josh Tomlin the L2 days, it's going to be a reprieve here. I realize there's an inherent danger in going against a team that's riding a 14-game win streak, but if there was a scenario that you could draw up for it to end, it would probably look something like this. Today marks just the fourth time Cleveland has been a ML underdog during the streak. 10* Toronto

8* Oakland (10:05 ET): Third day in a row I'm making a play on/against the Athletics. Wednesday, I took them as they beat San Francisco 7-1. Yesterday, I went against them and they lost 12-6, missing out on a chance to sweep their Bay Area rival. The key difference in handicapping those two games was clearly the presence of Madison Bumgarner on the mound for the Giants last night as he held the Oakland bats in relative check for 6+ innings. Obviously, Bumgarner isn't going to be pitching tonight for the Pirates, so I'm back on the A's tonight in yet another Interleague series. Interesting is the line move here (similar to Wednesday) where it appears as if it's sharp money responsbile for the home team being bet up on the money line. I'll concur w/ the move.

Pittsburgh has been one the real disappointments in the National League so far. They currently sit three games below .500 even after winning four of their last six. They had an off-day after winning in Seattle, 8-1, Wednesday. But the rest is not nearly enough to garner my endorsement for tonight. Starter Jeff Locke might be off B2B impressive outings against the Dodgers and Giants (beat Bumgarner 1-0), but he's mostly been a disaster on the road w/ a 7.36 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in eight starts. The team's record in those eight starts is a predictable 2-6.  Those two impressive starts against the Dodgers & Giants (1 ER allowed in 13 2/3 IP) both came at home. His last two road starts (at New York & Colorado) saw him allow 18 runs in just 8 2/3 IP.

I'm not entirely sure what the deal has been with Sonny Gray this year, but the Oakland ace has looked better of late. He allowed only 2 ER to both the Brewers and Angels in his last two starts and had a 10-2 KW ratio. He has a 3.23 ERA his L5 starts, but sadly has nothing to show for it. In fact, he's winless going all the way back to April 22nd. So he's due. What would help Gray's cause is some good old fashioned run support. Quietly, the A's offense has scored six or more runs in seven straight games, averaging 7.7 per game during that stretch w/ a team batting average of .300! So the support should be there. 8* Oakland

10* Calgary (10:00 ET): In case you didn't know, all four favorites lost outright in CFL Week 1. I went against three of them and two will play here. Winnipeg lost first as the Bombers went down courtesy of Montreal, 22-14 as 2.5-pt home chalk. We knew the Als defense might be very good, but that was a downright pitiful showing from the Blue Bombers. As for Calgary, they played the final game of the weekend and suffered what was likely the most crushing loss, 20-18 at B.C. They should be quite irritated as a a result and I anticipate them dominating a division foe that they have owned for some time now. Going back to the final meeting of the 2011 season, the Stamps have taken 9 of the previous 10 meetings, six of them by double digits. Lay the points here w/ what will be an angry favorite out for retribution.

Calgary's offense was not getting the job done last week, but certainly had chances with THREE blocked punts in the first half. But it was another key special teams play, a fourth quarter punt return for touchdown by B.C. that swung the game. I think that it's critical to remember the Stampeders were one of the two best teams in the league a year ago w/ a 14-4 SU regular season. At home, they were a dominant 9-1 straight up with an average margin of victory of 12.1 points per game. Winnipeg was the lowest scoring team in the league on the road at just 21.1 PPG. It's important to note that Calgary led last week for the entirety of the first three quarters and did not relinquish the lead until allowing the punt return. It's a game they feel they "should have had" and now it's time to take things out on a lesser opponent.

Meanwhile things go from "bad to worse" for the Bombers here as they'll be w/o WR Weston Dressler. While Dressler was lost early in Week 1, he had already made three pretty big catches by that point and the offense clearly suffered without his services. Considering the kind of offensive line issues that are present here and what Montreal was able to do last week, I expect the Stamps' defensive line to have a field day. Their offense - led by QB Bo Levi Mitchell and RB Jerome Messam - should put up big numbers here as well. 10* Calgary

    

8* Under Liberty/Mercury (10:05 ET): I waited quite awhile to make my first WNBA O/U bet of the season. That's because scoring has absolutely been on the rise in this league in 2016. So I waited patiently for a "tipping point," when I thought the oddsmakers' numbers had gotten too high. Sure enough, my first two O/U plays this season won (both released over the last week) and have both been Unders. The last, which came in game w/ the highest O/U line for any WNBA game this season featured one of the teams in action here (Phoenix) and stayed Under by double digits. The oddsmakers aren't being quite as generous when the Mercury host the Liberty tonight, but the number is definitely too high. Take the Under.

These teams just met Saturday in New York. The final score there was Phoenix 104 New York 97, which has clearly influenced the O/U line tonight. But note that game went to overtime where an additional 23 pts were scored. As I outlined in my analysis for the Mercury's last game, they lead the league in scoring and are now back into 12th (last) in points allowed (after Dallas held Seattle to "only" 78 pts last night). Obviously, that's not the dichotomy you're looking for when betting an Under. But after shooting 50% from the floor in B2B games, I expect the Mercury's offense to regress tonight. First off, they previously hadn't shot better than 50% in a game since late May. Secondly, the Liberty are a respectable 4th in the league in points allowed (80.7 per game) and that's even factoring in they've played a lot of overtime games.

New York comes in off a very impressive win, as they were 13-pt underdogs in Minnesota where they won outright, 95-92. Again, that's another high scoring game contributing to the total here. Keep in mind though that FOUR of the Liberty's last five games have gone to overtime, one to two OT's. So those final scores are a bit misleading in terms of total pts scored.  Interestingly, the Liberty haven't shot better than 50% in a game since June 3rd. This figures to be the highest total for one of their games to date. Sugar Rodgers scored a career-best 30 points in the win over Minnesota, so that's one player you should count on regressing here. The team is also w/o its best player, Tina Charles, who leads the league in scoring AND rebounds. 8* Under Liberty/Mercury

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals let me down last night (my lone loss in MLB) by dropping a third game to the Royals, this time by a score of 4-2. It is absolutely stunning to see this club have a 15-23 record at home (lost seven straight!) as they went 55-26 here in '15. Run differential (+72) still says this is a very good team; in fact that run differential ranks as the 4th best in all of baseball! Fortunately, they'll be welcoming in a much lesser opponent to Busch Stadium this weekend and that's Milwaukee, who is 13-23 on the road and off an 8-1 loss (at home) to the Dodgers yday. This is a series that the Cards HAVE to take advantage of. Remember, they just swept the Cubs (at Wrigley), so I don't think there's any reason to panic.

The Brew Crew did put up a pretty good fight in B2B series w/ the Nationals and Dodgers as they split the six home games. But, as noted above, they have struggled outside of Miller Park. They're being outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road this year and went 2-7 out on the West Coast in June (only road trip).  I don't think this line will get as high as +200, but if it does, then you can book a St. Louis win as Milwaukee as 0-6 this year as a ML dog of +200 or higher. They are also just 15-29 head to head w/ the Cardinals since the start of the 2014 season. They've lost both series to them this year, both times dropping two of three. The Cardinals four victories have come by a combined 33-4 margin! In only one of the six games has Milwaukee scored more than three runs.

Starting tonight for the Redbirds will be Jaime Garcia. He's faced the Brewers twice in 2016 and has allowed just two runs in 14 innings of work. The start that came here at home saw him go the distance w/ a one-hit shutout where he finished w/ a season-high 13 strikeouts. His 10 career wins against Milwaukee are his most versus any opponent. The Brewers counter w/ Matt Garza, who has a 4.07 ERA in 12 career starts vs. St. Louis. Johnny Peralta is 17 for 37 lifetime against him. Really, the Cards have been beating themselves this year as three errors last night ran their YTD total to a major league leading 62 (which have led to 28 unearned runs). Clean up the fielding issues and they should have no problem putting an end to this curious home losing streak of theirs. 8* St. Louis

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets badly needed a win last night and they got it w/ a surprising, come-from-behind 4-3 victory over the Cubs. The spark seemed to be a titanic home run for Yoenis Cespedes in the sixth, though the home team didn't actually take the lead until the following frame. New York came into this series having just been swept by the Nats and finished only 12-15 in the month of June. But, despite those disappointing results, the good news is they always won at least two in a row last month (meaning they never just won once and then lost again). They've also now beaten the Cubs five straight times dating back to LY's NLCS after losing nine straight regular season games to them. I like the Mets tonight.

The key for the Cubs yday was that they failed to score four runs. They are an insane 46-4 this year when reaching that plateau, but that obviously means they are also 5-23 otherwise. That's not a great sign, actually. Despite setting a historic pace in run differential (+169 through 78 games), Joe Maddon's team has definitely seemed to slow down over the last week or so, going just 4-7 its last 11 games. Three of those wins, remember, came against the hideous Reds. The club has lost each of the last four starts made by Jason Hammel, scoring only nine runs total in those games. Tonight's starter for the Cubs has never beaten the Mets and his ERA is currently at a season-high.

The Cubs will face all quality arms in this series and tonight it's Jacob DeGrom on the hill for the home team. Though deGrom is winless since April, a stretch of 10 starts, his ERA is actually a very respectable 3.13 during that time. So, he's definitely due. Last Saturday, he tossed eight scoreless innings (against Atlanta), but unfortunately did not factor into the decision as the Mets won 1-0 in 11 innings. DeGrom has made six consecutive quality starts and has allowed more than 3 ER in only one of his 13 starts overall this season. If his offense can give him the requisite amount of support here, then I see no reason why deGrom can't break his own personal streak and lead the team to its second straight victory. 10* NY Mets

    

8* Under Belgium/Wales (3:00 ET): The winner here moves on to face Portugal in the semifinals. After losing its opener of the tournament (2-0 to Italy), a defeat which now doesn't look as bad in retrospect, Belgium has won three straight - all in pretty dominant fashion - keeping a "clean sheet" all three times. I had them Sunday as they ended up annihilating Hungary, 4-0. The four goals scored tied the for the most in any game in this Euro Cup. But note that the Belgians actually controlled the ball less than 50% of the time and three of the goals came after the 78th minute. I expect this quarterfinal battle vs. Wales to be a lot lower-scoring.  Take the Under.

Wales still being alive in the tournament is a stunner. I suspect that this magical run of theirs will come to an end here today. That being said, they also come off B2B clean sheets, having beaten Russia 3-0 and then Northern Ireland 1-0. However, let's note a couple of things when it comes to goals scored in Wales' fixtures. The lone goal scored vs. Northern Ireland was an "own goal," so the reality is Wales didn't score in the Round of 16. There's no denying how impressive they were vs. Russia. In their lone loss of the tournament, to England, the deciding goal was scored in stoppage time. That was the only the second time in seven matches that Wales has conceded more than once.

The big blow for Belgium here is that Thomas Vermaelen was sent off against Hungary and thus is suspended here. HC Marc Wilmots has openly been griping about that. Also, Jan Vertonghen has been ruled out w/ an ankle injury. While much is being made of this match taking place at Lille, which is right across the France-Belgium border, note UEFA actually ordered the playing surface to be re-laid due to being affected by weather conditions and that could be more significant. While Gareth Bale has been a beast for Wales, scoring 82% of his team's goals in qualifying and three more here at the Championship, that's leaning far too heavily on one player for my liking. Note these teams played to a scoreless draw in qualifying in Brussels and Bale provided the lone goal in a 1-0 Wales win back in June. 8* Under Belgium/Wales

10* Over Indians/Blue Jays (1:05 ET): It goes w/o saying that Cleveland is red hot right now. In fact, no team has been hotter at any point during this season that the Tribe are at this moment as they've matched a franchise-record w/ 13 straight victories. Last night saw one of their excellent starters, Danny Salazar strike out 14 Blue Jays while Jason Kipnis and Rajai Davis provided all the offense that was necessary w/ solo home runs. Toronto finished the game w/ only three hits. But while last night marked a low-scoring affair, we certainly know what both of these offenses are capable of doing. Toronto has scored 10 or more runs in seven games since June 11th. Cleveland has scored 80 runs during their win streak (6.2 rpg). Both clubs are averaging more than six runs per game over the last week. I like the Over this afternoon.

It's not been a good season for Jays starter Marcus Stroman. He's allowed 4+ ER in five of his last six starts and now has an ERA/WHIP of 5.33/1.421 for the season. Those numbers are among the worst of all qualified starters. After being rocked in Baltimore on 6.18, giving up seven runs and 10 hits in just 3 2/3 IP, he allowed four runs in 5 IP in Chicago Sunday and didn't help himself by walking four batters. Overall, the right-hander has now given up 38 earned runs in his last eight starts. He has an 8.44 ERA his last six. Prior to that last outing in Chicago, the Over had cashed in five consecutive Stroman starts. All five of those games saw at least 10 total runs scored. An Indians lineup that has scored six or more runs eight times during the 13-game win streak should get to him.

Now Cleveland pitching has been lights out, today's starter Josh Tomlin certainly included. But Tomlin has given up seven runs in his last two starts and struggled in his career vs. the Blue Jays. Twice he's toed the rubber here at Rogers Centre and his ERA is 5.56. Toronto does average 5.3 rpg when facing a right-handed starter.  Day games have seen them average 5.2 rpg. One would have to go all the way back to June 6-7 to find the last time the Blue Jays were held under five runs in B2B games. 10* Over Indians/Blue Jays

8* San Francisco (10:05 ET): The sign of a good handicapper is a willingness not to fall into the trap of being intractable. What works one day, week, month or season may not work the next. Playing off that thought, after winning w/ the A's (7-1!) last night, I'm on the Giants Thursday. Sweeping a four-game series is hard to do, so the notion that a bottom-rung team like Oakland could pull off the feat against one of the top teams in all of baseball seems a little far-fetched. Of course, a big reason I like San Francisco in this spot is that they have Madison Bumgarner on the hill. Note that despite this game being contested in an AL park (Oakland), Giants skipper Bruce Bochy is forsaking the DH and will allow Bumgarner (9 HR's in 183 AB's L3 seasons) to bat!

Over the course of a given season, most pitchers will have at least a two-start stretch where they go winless. But Bumgarner is not "most" pitchers. It's been a couple of "hard luck" losses for the big ol' lefty, first a 1-0 decision at Pittsburgh, then a 3-2 decision vs. Philadelphia. Prior to those results, the Giants had won 10 straight times when Bumgarner toed the rubber. His numbers remain excellent. Over his L7 starts, he has a 1.45 ERA and 0.825 WHIP. There have been only two starts all season where he's allowed more than 3 ER, the last one coming all the way back on May 6th. Obviously, hitting won't bother him as he's used to having to come up to the plate. In his career, Bumgarner has pretty much dominated the A's, going 8-4 w/ a 1.99 ERA. Last year, he held them to just one run and five hits over 7 IP.

The idea that Oakland could actually sweep this series is pretty shocking. They have been one of the AL's worst teams, basically all season and still have a -46 run differential even after the three consecutive victories. The Giants, who came into this series w/ more wins than the Cubs, really helped their Bay Area rival out last night by committing three errors. Still, a 25-15 road record from SF should be respected. Unlike last night, the pitching advantage is quite large here for the G-Men as the A's go w/ Dillon Overton, who in his first career start gave up three home runs. The Giants are 7-1 this year as ML road favorites in the -150 to -175 range. 8* San Francisco

10* Under Argos/Riders (10:00 ET):  Host Saskatchewan was the one team that had Week 1 off. One thing is for certain and that's it didn't pay to be a favorite last week in the CFL - literally - as all four chalk teams lost their respective games outright! Toronto was one of them, in their first ever game in their brand new home stadium. Now they travel across the country to face a rested foe that's likely been "chomping at the bit." That foe is also eager to erase the memory of a disastrous 2015 campaign where it went only 3-15 straight up and surrendered a league-high 31.3 points per game. Defensively, the Rough Riders should be better in 2016 and I think that'll show in their season opener as I'm on the Under here.

Toronto didn't just lose, they lost badly last week. The final score read: Hamilton 42, Toronto 20. Something to keep in mind is that the Ti-Cats were w/o one of their stars on defense, Ted Laurent. The fact the Argos could then muster only 261 total yards is not a good sign, especially now that they take their act out on the road for the first time. Aside from a 14-point third quarter, the Argos really couldn't do much against Hamilton. Note that one of their 3Q TD's was set up by a fumble return that gave them a very short field to work with. They also allowed a defensive touchdown, so really if you take those two plays away the game is a lot lower scoring.

For Saskatchewan, this will be the first game in over a year for pivot (QB) Darian Durant. I'd expect him to be a bit rusty and when you throw in the fact that this is the Rough Riders' first game, a slow start should take place offensively.  This is also a completely remade roster under 1st year HC Chris Jones and that too can contribute to some early season "growing pains."  I mentioned earlier that this was the worst defensive team in the league last year. Well, that's one area where I certainly project improvement. The Over was 12-6 in Riders' games a season ago including 2-0 in games vs. Toronto. Both had lower totals than this game however, and the one played here in Mosaic Stadium went to double OT where an extra 26 points were scored after regulation. We're due for an Under here. 10* Under Argos/Riders

    

10* Seattle (10:05 ET): Dallas arrives in the Pacific Northwest off a crushing loss just two nights ago, 89-84 at Los Angeles, where they blew a 19-point halftime lead. The fact that they still covered for me (as 10.5-pt underdogs) is likely little consolation for the Wings, who have now lost eight of 12 overall. It's very unlikely that we'll see this team produce an offensive output like the one we saw Tuesday night in the first half (53 points) and worrisome is the team's defense, which now is giving up the most points per game in the entire league (88.3). I'm siding with the home team (Seattle) in this one as I think Tuesday's loss will be quite difficult for Dallas to overcome.

Seattle has now won B2B games. They cashed for me last Friday, right here at home, with a convincing 98-81 win over Connecticut. They followed that up by defeating Atlanta 84-81, also here at home (didn't cover the 5.5-point spread). But in that win over the Dream, we saw rookie Breanna Stewart (who has been as good as advertised) drop 38 points, the third most ever by a rookie in a game in league history. After scoring 20+ in four straight games, Stewart is now fifth in the league in scoring, not to mention she also ranks second in assists. She's the main reason things are starting to looking up for the Storm this season.

This is a revenge spot for Seattle as well. They lost down in Dallas, 88-79 back on June 16th, as the Wings shot 52.4% from the floor, one of their best percentages of this entire season.  But on the road, the Wings have struggled. Their last road win in regulation came all the way back on May 18th! The 55 pts they allowed in the second half vs. Los Angeles is very concerning to me and I do expect there will be a "carryover" type effect into tonight's game. The Wings franchise is just 4-9 ATS its L13 visits to Seattle. 10* Seattle

8* St. Louis (7:15 ET): The Cardinals have dropped two of the three games so far in this series, including a 3-2 extra inning loss last night here at home. Sadly, the one game they did win was Tuesday (8-4) in Kansas City when I elected to go against them. But I think they'll be "paying me back" tonight in the series finale w/ a win. Note that while the Royals have the better WL record (41-36 vs. 40-37), the Cards have the vastly superior run differential (+74 vs. -14), which I firmly believe is a better predictor of future success. Therefore, I look for the Redbirds to exact revenge for last night and earn themselves a split of this four-game set.

Last night's game was decided on a tough play for the home team. Alcides Escobar's blooper bounced just inside the right-field line, allowing the GW run to score. Cardinals RF Stephen Piscotty (who had just tied the game in the bottom of the 10th w/ a HR), thinking the ball would land in foul territory, didn't want to catch it as there was a runner on third who could have still tagged up and scored. Just a bad break for St. Louis, who is now a stunning 15-22 at Busch Stadium after going 55-26 here in 2015. Most frustrating of all about this year's home record is that they are actually averaging 4.4 rpg, same as their opponents. Given the YTD run differential and the record, one could make the case that the Cards have been the unluckiest team in baseball so far. But I believe we're going to start to see that home record inch closer to .500.  Don't forget; the Royals are still only 14-25 on the road this season, which is one of the worst marks in either league.

Offensively, St. Louis is third in the league in runs scored, trailing only the Red Sox and Cubs. I'm going to go ahead and project a big night at the plate against embattled Royals starter Chris Young, who comes in w/ a 7.07 ERA and 1.611 WHIP. On the road, things have gone very poorly for Young. He's winless (five starts) w/ a 9.70 ERA and 1.828 WHIP. His last time out (at home) saw Young give up seven runs in just 2 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, KC averages only 3.2 rpg away from home, which means Mike Leake should be in line for a strong night on the bump for St. Louis. 8* St. Louis

    

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET):  Through 79 games, the White Sox are a "dead even" 39-39. Needless to say, the first 39 games went a lot better than the last 39. This team once stood at 24-12 overall and was in first place in the American League Central, looking poised to be a playoff contender.  But around the middle of May, the bottom dropped out and they've since lost 27 of 42 games. Now that being said, they are starting to show signs of turning things around. Not only did they beat Minnesota yday, but they've won six of nine overall dating back to a strong showing at Fenway Park vs. the Red Sox. With the offense starting to pick up, look for Carlos Rodon to lead the Sox to another victory Thursday afternoon.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is having a terrible season. They have the worst record in all of baseball (25-52) and have been outscored by an AL-worst 111 runs over the course of the season.  That's more than double the second worst run differential (Angles' -49) in the Junior Circuit.  Really, their 2016 fate was sealed after an early season sweep courtesy of Chicago, which at the time left the Twins at 0-9. They've yet to really recover. Now 1-7 head to head vs. the White Sox this year, there's little reason to like them in this spot given a horrific 12-39 record off a loss. They are also 10-27 on the road. They actually trailed 9-1 at one point Wednesday. Winning a series on the road is something this club rarely does. In fact, it's happened just twice all year. Keep in mind the White Sox have outscored the Twins 39-19 in the eight games played this year.

Though winless over his last five starts overall, Rodon has still pitched well. He's allowed 2 ER or less in four of those starts and the team did win his last time out, beating Toronto 3-2. There, Rodon allowed just two runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings. Here, he'll be facing a lineup which ranks near the bottom of baseball in most key categories (27th in runs scored). Back in April, Rodon tossed six scoreless innings in Minnesota. He will be opposed tonight by Tommy Milone, who is winless on the road (three starts). Milone's WHIP has gone up over his L3 starts (1.845) after he allowed eight baserunners in just 3 2/3 IP his last time out.  8* Chi White Sox

10* Oakland (10:05 ET):  After 24 runs and 30 hits (between the two teams), the A's emerged as pretty shocking victors last night in San Francisco (closed +130 on the ML). It was a 13-11 final w/ Jake Smolinski's three-run, pinch-hit HR winding up being the difference. (Giants did score two runs of their own in the bottom of the ninth). Oakland scored 12 of its runs in the final four innings, eight of those coming in the eighth and ninth. Twice they overcame a three-run deficit because they actually allowed four runs in the bottom of the sixth after scoring four of their own in top half of that frame. I imagine that "the world" will be on the Giants to bounce back here, but w/ the scene shifting across the bay, I'm on the A's!

Oakland didn't just win last night, they won Monday (8-3) as well. Taking both games in San Francisco is a pretty impressive feat considering the Giants came into this series owning a 24-14 home record and were tied for the most wins in all of baseball. But in terms of run differential, this team is actually only fourth in the National League and way behind the Cubs (also trail Washington and St. Louis). They've certainly benefited from a 19-9 record in one-run games (that's the most one-run victories in all of baseball. I have real concerns about the rotation depth here and that includes tonight's starter Jake Peavy, who comes in sporting a 6.25 ERA and 1.333 WHIP on the road. Peavy has been better of late, but I wouldn't necessarily trust him moving forward.

I fully understand that Oakland's Sean Manaea isn't exactly in the middle of the Cy Young discussion, but his L3 home starts have all been pretty good. Back on June 13th, he lasted only 4 1/3 innings, but allowed only two runs and four hits and most importantly the team got a big 14-5 win over a Texas team that's been just as hot as this San Francisco one is now. The reason for the short stint is that Manaea strained his forearm and ended up going to the DL. This will be his first start since. A big key here is that "sharp money" has shown up on the home team here, leading to a big line move despite the majority of actual bets being on the road team. 10* Oakland

10* Under Sun/Mercury (10:05 ET): In yesterday's analysis (for a winning Under pick), I mentioned that scoring has really been on the rise this season in the WNBA. As a result, we're starting to see (justifiably) higher O/U lines for games. But as was the case yday, the one tonight for Connecticut at Phoenix is too high and in fact I'm not sure the last time I saw a WNBA total this high. Now Phoenix has gone Over in four straight, not to mention they played to a 99-90 final with Connecticut earlier this year. But I envision a lower scoring game taking place this go around. Take the Under.

Phoenix does come in leading the league with an 88.3 PPG scoring average. At the same time, they're dead last in points allowed at 88.9 per game.  But... let's not that their last game (a 104-97 win over NY) went to overtime and another recent game (a 117-111 loss to Dallas on June 18th) went to triple overtime. So those results still greatly influence their overall numbers with the season still being only a month old. Sunday's win in New York also marked the first time this month that the Mercury shot 50% (or better) in a game. 

Connecticut covered for me in their last game, as big 16.5 point underdogs at Los Angeles. The final score there was "only" 80-73.  Obviously, this will be the highest total for any Sun game so far this season. It's also the highest total for any Mercury game this season. In fact, it's currently set to be the highest WNBA total for any game this season!  10* Under Sun/Mercury

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): These two teams certainly appear to be trending in opposite directions as the Rangers have come to Yankee Stadium and taken the first two games by scores of 9-6 and 7-1. But the home team still has a chance to earn a split here and is a big favorite tonight even though Texas has won 20 of its last 25 games and has the best record in the American League. This is because Masahiro Tananka will be on the bump for the team wearing pinstripes and he's been quite good of late w/ six of his last seven starts being of the quality variety. Note that last night was only a 2-0 game heading into the eighth inning and Monday saw the Rangers rally late after a lengthy rain delay. After letting one get away and then ending up losing in such lopsided fashion, I anticipate the home team will be quite motivated here tonight.

The Yanks had been playing well prior to this series, winning five of seven and 10 of 16 overall. Granted, they'd taken advantage of some weak competition (Minnesota and Colorado), but they were at the .500 mark for the season. They drastically outhit the Rangers in the series opener (16 to 9!). It's odd to see that 10 of the 16 runs the Rangers have scored in this series have come in the eighth and ninth innings. Those are usually the frames where New York dominates with its awesome bullpen trio of Betances-Miller-Chapman. But because of the delay, it was a different reliever (Kirby Yates) that blew the game Monday. None of the three got in the game Tuesday.

After leaning on Cole Hamels yday, the Rangers are forced to go w/ Nick Martinez here. Martinez has made only two starts in 2016 and they really haven't gone well as he's given up seven runs in 10 1/3 IP (on 12 hits) and he has more walks than strikeouts. He also has never fared too well on the road. Going back to last season, his L7 road starts have resulted in an 0-5 record w/ a 7.82 ERA. As for Tanaka, the team is 6-2 this year when he toes the rubber at Yankee Stadium. Tip your cap to the Rangers for a tremendous month, but they are only third in the American League in run differential (+58) YTD and have clearly been a bit "lucky" (17-5 in one-run games!). This is one the home team "has to have." 8* NY Yankees

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  Both of these NL East powerhouses (no pun intended) came into this series somewhat reeling. The Nats won Sunday (I had 'em!), but had lost seven in a row prior to that and are currently w/o the services of one Stephen Strasburg (back). The Mets, meanwhile, simply can't score. They are one of only three teams yet to score 300 runs this season and the other two are the bottom-feeders in their own division, Philadelphia and Atlanta. An abundance of quality arms in the starting rotation has kept this team afloat, but tonight sees them most certainly not having the starting pitching edge. I look for Washington to make it three in a row over their main rival tonight.

The Mets' offensive woes continued last night as they were shutout by Nats' prospect Lucas Giolito. But it wasn't all Giolito as an 85-minute rain delay cut his outing short. Still, the Mets finished the game w/ only five hits. It was the ninth time they've been shutout this year and the 10th time in the last 11 games they've finished with four runs or fewer. Assuming this lack of offensive production continues (and I believe it will here), that obviously makes life quite difficult for starter Logan Verrett, who has enough problems of his own right now. Verrett is only back in the rotation due to an injury to Steven Matz. In a spot start earlier this month, he gave up three home runs and issued four walks in just four innings of work. That was after allowing seven runs in just 2 2/3 IP last month in Colorado.

Max Scherzer is looking to bounce back after allowing five runs in Milwaukee last Friday. But, make no mistake about it, he's a big reason why I love this play. A 0.997 WHIP for the year indicates that he is deserving of far better than just a 9-7 team start record and his strikeout numbers remain pretty ridiculous as he's sat down 92 batters in his L9 starts (64 1/3 IP). Earlier this year, Scherzer suffered a hard luck 2-0 loss to the Mets as both runs allowed were solo home runs. He struck out 10 only to be outdueled by Noah Syndergaard. Something tells me he'll have little difficulty outdueling Verrett here as the Nats complete the sweep. 8* Washington

8* Toronto (8:40 ET):  The Blue Jays let me down yday (blew 4-0 lead) but alas I think they'll "get it back" today as I don't see Colorado being capable of producing another six-run inning like the one we saw last night, even here at the hitter-friendly confines of their home park. Though Colorado is now "in the black" when it comes to YTD run differential (+3), which has to be considered a bit of a surprise, Toronto is clearly the better team here (+31 run differential) and I expect them to show that tonight.  The Jays have a winning road record and are 10-5 this year when JA Happ is on the mound.

Meanwhile, Rockies fans have every right to be concerned with Eddie Butler being on the mound. First off, the team has lost each of the last five times he's taken the baseball. Secondly, he's been a disaster here at Coors Field w/ a 10.42 ERA and 2.105 WHIP.  He lasted only five innings in the thin Denver air last Thursday when he gave up six runs and 11 hits. Things went even worse for him two home starts ago when he lasted all of four innings and gave up eight runs on 11 hits and that was against lowly Cincinnati. Toronto's offense may not be performing at the near-historic levels we saw last year, but they still average 5.1 rpg vs. right-handed starters and are 9th overall in runs scored. Butler has yet to last longer than five innings in any home start and has allowed six or more runs three times.

Happ only lasted five innings himself his last time out, but he allowed only two runs and that was good enough for a 5-2 win over Arizona. Prior to that, he'd allowed only one run (unearned) in a 13-2 win over Philadelphia where he allowed just three hits over seven innings of work. In all but three starts this season, Happ has given up 3 ER or less. That's pretty impressive in my book. Into the sixth inning yday, the Rockies had only three hits for the game. While they've won three straight (and scored 29 runs in the process), I look for them to be cooled off tonight.  8* Toronto

8* Dallas (10:05 ET):  While in past seasons, we've often seen the oddsmakers struggle to account for just how wide the gap is between the best and worst teams in this league, I believe this year we're starting to see an overadjustment. This is due to the terrific starts from both Minnesota and Los Angeles, who are a combined 24-1 straight up against the rest of the league.  But as we saw Sunday w/ the former, these two aren't immune from defeat (Lynx lost 87-63 at Washington as 8.5-pt chalk). The latter is in action tonight, laying a big number against a game Dallas squad, and considering I won the last time I took a double digit dog (Conn +15.5) against the Sparks, I'll grab the points again here.

Dallas had a four-game win streak snapped its last time out, losing at home to Indiana by a score of 92-87. That came on the heels of an overtime win where they failed to cover a big number against lowly San Antonio. So the Wings should be more than motivated here to take on a Los Angeles squad that they needed no extra motivation to face. I say that not just because the Sparks sit atop the league standings w/ a 13-1 SU record, but also because they destroyed the Wings in their new home of Dallas, 97-73 as nine-point chalk back on June 11th.  Note, however, that game came at a bad time for the Wings as they were getting both Skylar Diggins and Glory Johnson integrated back into the lineup.

After being blown out by LA in the first meeting, Dallas would lose its next game as well, 91-88 at New York. But what followed was the aforementioned four-game win streak. The key is that the team is now at full strength with their star Diggins seemingly recovered from LY's ACL injury and Johnson now back in the starting lineup. Joining Diggins in the backcourt is Odyssey Sims, who is averaging a team high 16.4 PPG. Going back to their final game of May, the Sparks are just 1-4 ATS laying double digits including only a seven-point win over Connecticut on Sunday (were laying 16). Take the points here. 8* Dallas

10* Under Dream/Storm (10:05 ET): Host Seattle is off its highest scoring game of the season, a 98-81 win over Connecticut where I laid the points and won. While it wasn't the first time that the Storm topped 90 pts this season, it did mark their best shooting night of the season to date (61.4%), so I think it would to safe to assume there will be some sort of dropoff here. Scoring is definitely on the rise this season in WNBA, but this number simply seems "too high." Take the Under.

Atlanta has played FOUR overtime games this season, including one that went to double OT that they lost (won the other three). So some of their final scores this year have been inflated by extra time. That certainly includes the 2OT loss vs. New York last week, a game that saw them finish w/ only 79 points anyway! They followed that up w/ another lackluster effort, this time scoring only 69 pts in a regulation loss at San Antonio (I got burned there as I had the Dream). Note that there has been only one time in the L9 games where Atlanta has shot better than 46% from the floor. They're at 41.4% for the season, a percentage that isn't conducive to producing Overs on a regular basis.

I mentioned that scoring has been up this year in the WNBA. That's apparent when you consider the total for both games these teams played in 2015 was only 147.5.  Here, we're dealing with a number that's almost 20 pts higher! That says "VALUE" to me.  Helping to drive up said value is the fact Seattle has gone Over in each of its last three games. Remember that Atlanta has been the worst three-point shooting team in the league this season, hitting at only a pitiful 25.3% clip! That combined w/ Seattle's likely regression from the last game have me calling for a lower scoring game than expected. 10* Under Dream/Storm

5* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Diamonbacks were completely embarrassed last night as they lost 8-0 to the Phillies. However, I happen to be of the belief that when a home team suffers a loss like that, they typically are a great "buy low" candidate the following day. If you've been following along this season, then you already know that I have very little regard for the Phillies, who have the fourth worst run differential in all of baseball even after Monday's eight-run victory. They're lucky to even be 33-45 as nearly half (16) of those wins have come by exactly one run. Take one-run games out of the equation and the Phillies drop to 17-36.

Oh by the way, Zack Greinke is pitching tonight for the D'backs. While he struggled initially to adjust to Chase Field, those struggles now seem to be a thing of the past. The team has won eight straight times when he's on the mound and he was one out shy of making it five consecutive quality starts the last time we saw him as he allowed only 3 ER in 5 2/3 IP as Arizona beat Colorado 7-6 on June 23rd. In the midst of producing the 8-0 team start record, Grienke has posted a 2.18 ERA while holding opponents to a .191 batting average and .224 on base percentage. He dominated Philadelphia back on June 18th, giving up only one run on three hits over eight innings. I envision we'll be seeing a similar performance tonight.

Though I didn't have a play on last night's game, the result certainly caught me by surprise. Note Arizona had swept Philly (in a 4-game set) on the road last week, outscoring them 22-5. They were also coming off a series in Colorado where they produced a franchise-record for hits in a four-game set (56). So, it wasn't just the fact they lost, but that they were shut out as well.  But the real surprise has been the D'backs' somewhat pathetic 13-26 home record this season. That has to start changing soon, right? Fortunately, the Phillies are 9-19 the L3 seasons when off a shutout win. While they finished w/ a season-high in hits last night (16), all but three of those came in the final four innings. Needless to say, with all the money invested in this roster, the D'backs did not expect to be staring up at the Rockies in the NL West standings at this point in the season. 5* Arizona

9* Kansas City (8:15 ET): I still can't believe that I was able to pull out a winner w/ last night's Under play. Certainly, I felt confident going in, but after the game was 6-2 after just two innings (O/U line was 8.5), things weren't looking very good. But from that point forward, the scoring was done and I was left w/ a somewhat improbable winning ticket. As for the respective sides, KC has to be feeling pretty good about itself after taking the opener of the I-70 series, but then again they've been "feeling good" all season long at Kauffman Stadium where they're now an impressive 27-10 (best home win percentage in all of baseball). As for the Cardinals, well, this has the look of "one of those seasons" as despite ranking 4th in MLB in run differential (+71), they're only three games above .500. I'm on the home team tonight.

The Royals are five games over .500, but have actually been outscored by 11 runs over the course of this season. That's not very impressive, but again, winning at home has not been an issue for this team. They're outscoring opponents by nearly a full run per game here in front of the waterfall and that's even after taking two terrible losses over the weekend against a hot Houston team. After giving up two runs early yday, on a two-run 1st inning HR by Matt Holliday, the Royals would not allow another Cardinals runner to score. In fact, St. Louis had just four hits over the final eight innings. Interleague play simply has not been very kind to St. Louis thus far as they're just 4-8 against the Junior Circuit.

After Danny Duffy was able to shut the Redbirds down on Monday, tonight it's Yordano Ventura's turn. Ventura, like his team, shares an affinity for taking the field at home. His team start record is a perfect 6-0 here in 2016 and his last time out (6.17) we saw him toss six-plus scoreless innings where he allowed only six hits and didn't walk a single batter. That followed an outstanding outing in Chicago (vs. the White Sox) where he posted a season-high 10 K's en route to a 3-1 victory. The reason it's been so long since Ventura last pitched is that he's coming off a suspension. That's all "water under the bridge" now though as he should be fresh. For the Cardinals, Michael Wacha has been better of late, but he still has shaky numbers (4.41 ERA, 1.357 WHIP) for the year. Their lineup is likely to be missing SS Aledmys Diaz (eye), which would be a big loss.  9* Kansas City

    

10* Under Indians/Braves (7:10 ET): Cleveland is on fire right now. There's simply no other way to put it. The Tribe have won 10 in a row, which is not only the longest active win streak in MLB, it's the longest win streak we've seen from ANY team all season. They're not just winning either; they're dominating as following an 8-3 win Monday here in Atlanta, the Indians have cumulatively outscored their opponents 68-21 over the course of the 10 games. Tonight sees them sending Corey Kluber to the bump and considering what he did his last time out, I anticipate him holding in check a Braves offense which ranks dead last in runs scored. Obviously, the Indians are heavy favorites for a reason here, but I like the Under as well.

Believe it or not, Atlanta recently went on a six-game win streak of their own. However, they've since cooled off (lost four of six) and that probably can be attributed somewhat to the fact they're back at Turner Field where things have not gone well all season long (11-30 home record). They'd also recently gone on another six-game streak, that being one of all Unders. That was snapped in the series w/ the Mets and then yday's game went Over as well, but the bottom line is this team is still 8-2 Under its L10 games overall. Facing Kluber certainly doesn't seem likely to turn their offensive fortunes around. Cleveland simply isn't giving up many runs period as of late with opponents batting just .171 against them the L7 games (2.1 rpg allowed).

Kluber went the distance his last time out, tossing a three-hit shutout against the Rays. He has a 0.932 WHIP on the road this season and a 0.826 WHIP his L3 starts overall. We can certainly count on Kluber holding up his "end of the bargain" here especially considering he'll be getting the baseball on a full seven days' rest. But what about keeping the Indians offense in check? They have homered 10 times in the last three games and have scored at least six runs in seven straight. But while Braves' starter Matt Wisler has had a bad June, he's still tied for the team lead w/ 10 quality starts (that's actually one more than Kluber!). Cleveland likely will have to settle for a low-scoring victory tonight. 10* Under Indians/Braves

8* Toronto (8:40 ET):  The Blue Jays invade Coors Field for a three-game set starting Monday and given what we've seen from the offense for much of June, this should be a big series at the plate for them. Saturday marked the sixth time since June 11th that they scored 10 or more runs in a game. Yes, I know that they were held to just two runs in the other two games (both losses) against the White Sox this past weekend, but yday they had to face Chris Sale. The Rockies don't have a starting pitcher even close to that same caliber in their rotation; in fact opposing teams have averaged a whopping 6.8 rpg here at Coors Field this season while batting .312! I look for a big offensive night from Toronto here en route to an easy victory.

The Jays also have a clear edge in starting pitching here as Marco Estrada will take the mound for them.  He has a 2.75 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in his 14 starts, so you can largely disregard the 8-6 team start record, which is somewhat misleading. His last time out, Estrada gave up only two hits (in 6 IP), but three runs as the team ended up falling 4-2 to Arizona. But that was the team's first time losing w/ Estrada pitching since May 14th. It's been seven consecutive quality starts for him. Toronto has a winning record on the road this season, including 9-3 as a ML favorite of -125 to -150 (25-14 in that range the L3 seasons). The team still has a +35 run differential as well and I feel is poised for a big second half provided the offense continues to move closer to 2015-levels.

Colorado has had no issues scoring of late as they're averaging 8.5 runs their last six games, scoring at least six times in every contest. But they've only managed a 3-3 split due to their terrible pitching, which just gave up 30 runs in four games to Arizona.  Starting tonight will be Jon Gray, who has a 5.34 ERA here in Coors Field. Gray lasted only four innings his last time out, the result of which was a 9-8 loss to the Yankees, and managed to walk five batters.  If Gray is expecting any help from his bullpen on Monday, then he better think again as this group has a woeful 6.19 ERA at home this season. 8* Toronto

10* Under Royals/Cardinals (8:15 ET):  The I-70 series has taken on a whole new meaning in recent seasons due to the Royals' resurgence, but this year has seen both Show Me State clubs take a bit of a step back. Both KC and St. Louis avoided what would have been sweeps by winning Sunday. KC beat Houston 6-1, at home, while St. Louis was able to win 11-6 in Seattle after dropping B2B games by one-run. While the teams come into Monday w/ identical records (39-35), note that the Cardinals' run differential is significantly better (+75 to -15), which tells me right away that they should be the favorite to win the series. But the first two games take place in Kauffman Stadium where the Royals are a strong 26-10. So, I'll refrain from a play on the side here and instead turn to the total. You can expect a low-scoring affair. Take the Under.

Now St. Louis has not been shy about scoring runs away from home this season. They are averaging 6.1 per game following yday's 11-run outburst, which has made the Over a strong bet when they take their act on the road.  But, it's not like this lineup had been doing a whole lot of scoring in recent days as they had scored four runs or less in eight of nine games prior to yday where the long ball provided the bulk of the production (6 HR's!). I do not expect them to have that same kind of success tonight facing Danny Duffy. While Duffy may not always go deep into games, he's allowed more than 3 ER only once in eight starts and three times has kept the opponent from scoring altogether. Behind him is of course an outstanding bullpen, one which sports a 2.81 ERA and 1.180 WHIP.

Adam Wainwright gets the baseball for the Redbirds, making his team-high 16th start of the season. After a bit of a rocky start to 2016, Wainwright has gotten back on track w/ seven consecutive quality starts and a 2.36 ERA here in June. His WHIP in his last three starts is sub-1.00 and the last time we saw him, he was a winner at Wrigley Field, which is no small feat. It should be noted that these teams played six times last year and the Under went 4-0-2. Only once in the past 10 meetings has their been more than seven total runs scored. 10* Under Royals/Cardinals

10* Iceland +1 (3:00 ET): Note I am taking Iceland +1 here. This has been the Cinderella story of the tournament thus far as the Euro Cup neophyte has made the Round of 16. Iceland shockingly has yet to lose here in France, pulling off one win and two draws in group play. In each fixture, they conceded only one goal. The opposition will be stiff Monday as they take on heavily favored England, who made its way through the group stage w/ one win and two draws, same as Iceland. While those results were cause for celebration in Reykjavic and beyond, in London, they were considered quite disappointing. I'd be leery of trusting The Three Lions at this stage of the game. This one will at least be tied at the end of 90 minutes.

Iceland is most likely to employ a defensive strategy here, one that can frustrate the English much the same way that Hungary and Portugal were left frustrated as well. There has been consistency with the Iceland Starting XI whereas I expect changes from Roy Hodgson. Yes, England has done well in terms of possession, but they are not converting at the rate you'd like to see. Even if The Three Lions were to win this in extra time, I imagine it's going to be another frustrating result for them. They have not won in the knockout round of a European Championship since 1996! Iceland is actually unbeaten in its last nine competitive fixtures.

I really think that Hodgson blew it by making all those changes to his Starting XI prior to the Slovakia match. The result was a goalless draw w/ Slovakia that cost them the group. I look for there to be a sort-of "carry over" effect to this match, at least early on.  Remember that this side also trailed Wales early and had it not been for a stoppage time score, they wouldn't have won at all in the group stage. All of their goals thus far have come from the 56' minute on. Again, Iceland is playing well right now and I expect them to do no worse than to get this thing into extra time. 10* Iceland (+1)

9* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): It had been a positively miserable June for the Pirates coming into this series (5-17 overall!), but all of a sudden they find themselves in a position to sweep a Dodgers club that came into PNC Park riding a six-game win streak. Most surprising of all is that the Bucs beat Clayton Kershaw Sunday night as massive +230 underdogs on the money line. It's a very quick turnaround to the finale of this four-game set, a wrap-around that concludes Monday. I'm backing the Bucs here as they seem to not only have the "momentum" (I hate that word!), but the confidence after slaying Kershaw. 

It's been a bad month for Pittsburgh to be sure, but I think that it should be pointed out how the team still ranks third in on base percentage (.338). They've drawn eight walks in the three games so far in the series plus they have 26 hits. That's four more baserunners than the Dodgers have had in the three games. Given the OBP, it's a little strange to see the Pirates rank only 15th in MLB in runs scored. Something tells me the offense is coming. After leadoff man Jordy Mercer had to exit early Sunday night (took knee to the side of the head), it sure was nice to see Adam Frazier come in and give the team a lift w/ two hits in three chances. It should be noted that LA starter Scott Kazmir has a 5.18 ERA on the road this season and a 1.60 WHIP his L3 starts overall. If the Bucs can get to Kershaw, they can also get to Kazmir. 

Francisco Liriano is in the midst of a 'down year,' but the Pirates' starter does have good career numbers vs. the Dodgers w/ a 2.73 ERA in five starts. He's unbeaten (4-0) as well. It's really surprising to see how the team has lost five straight times when he's taken the mound, but note the offense scored two runs or less in four of those games. Outside of a pair of 12-run outbursts vs. Arizona, Liriano simply hasn't gotten much run support this year. But I expect him to today and it should be pointed out that the Pirates still sport a winning record at home while the Dodgers are a losing proposition on the road. The Pittsburgh lineup is batting .281 this year in day games. The Dodgers average only 3.1 rpg vs. LH starters w/ a .218 BA. 9* Pittsburgh

8* Under Italy/Spain (12:00 ET): Make no mistake about it, when it comes to the Round of 16, this is the marquee matchup. It's a rematch of the 2012 Final, won easily by Spain, 4-0. The defending champs ripped through their first two opponents during the group stage, beating Czech Republic and Turkey w/o conceding a goal, but then got surprised their last time out in a 2-1 loss to Croatia. Because they failed to win Group D, La Roja now draws Italy, who is also off a loss themselves. But in the case of the Azzurri, a 1-0 loss to Ireland didn't cost them Group E. Considering each side here didn't concede until their third game, I do not anticipate much scoring here. Take the Under.

While some might be concerned over Spain's 2-1 loss to Croatia, I think that it's very important to recall just how well this side has played in past Euro Cup matches. They were unbeaten in their previous 14 w/ 11 wins and three draws. Before conceding twice against Croatia, La Roja had conceded only one time in its previous 11 fixtures and was actually working on a remarkable stretch of 690 minutes w/o conceding at all. Offensively, while they did bury Turkey, they had scored no more than one goal in any of their other last four matches.

It's a similar story for Italy, who hadn't conceded in four competitive matches before losing 1-0 to Ireland. They haven't scored more than once in five of the past seven matches. Tactically, this is a sound side that can frustrate Spain. I expect this to be an incredibly defensive-minded battle where at most one goal will be scored. Quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if a scoreless draw resulted in penalty kicks here. I certainly do not anticipate a repeat of the 2012 Final. The Azzurri was one of only five sides during group play to concede 1 or 0 goals.  8* Under Italy/Spain

8* Connecticut (5:00 ET): While a matchup of one of the league's worst against one of its best, this is an excellent opportunity to take the points. That's because Los Angeles will be in total letdown mode after playing its last two games against Minnesota. The Sparks and Lynx both came into that home and home w/ unbeaten records and managed to split the pair of games, each winning on the other's home floor. It was LA winning Friday, 94-76 as 5.5-pt pups, a performance that will be awfully difficult to repeat as I simply can't see the team "getting up for this one."  Take the points. 

Though only 3-11 SU on the season, Connecticut has lost only twice all season by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here and one of those was the season opener. The other was their last time out, a game where I actually went against them, as they fell 98-81 at Seattle. It was an absolutely awful defensive effort there as they allowed the Storm to shoot 61% from the floor. But you'll also recall that one of my main reasons for going against the Sun in that spot was that they were coming off a rare win (two days prior, against San Antonio). Defensively, they won't be as bad here (even against a superior foe) and the oddsmakers sure are giving them a lot of help.

Twice Connecticut has gotten double digits from the oddsmakers this year and both times they've covered. One of those was against Los Angeles as they fell by only a five point margin while getting 11. They also covered as 12-point dogs at Phoenix. Two of the teams losses this year have been in overtime, including a 3 OT loss to Washington two weeks ago.  LA is just 1-3 ATS when laying double digits thus far, including a win by only seven over San Antonio when they were -17. They're just 3-3 ATS as home favorites overall this season.  8* Connecticut.

10* Oakland (3:35 ET):  Compared to the National League, a far more wide open race was expected in the AL this season and as we've almost reached July, very few teams are "out of it" in the Junior Circuit. One could make the arguement that these two are among the small "out of it group" as they are both among the four AL teams currently 10 games below .500 or worse. Right now though, the Angels (who I personally was very low on prior to the start of the season) seem to be in far worse shape as they've now lost six in a row after falling again to the A's yday, 7-3. Today sees Oakland going for the rare, four-game sweep on the road and I think they'll pull it off.

Sonny Gray has typically been the anchor in the Athletics' rotation for the last several seasons, but 2016 has been a bit of a different story as he has a 5.20 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in 13 starts. He's personally on a career-worst five game losing streak which dates back to the end of April. But the team did win the last time Gray pitched, 5-3 over Milwaukee on Tuesday, with the right-hander delivering six strong innings. He allowed only two runs, one of which was unearned, and matched a season-high w/ seven strikeouts. Angel Stadium has been a place where he's loved to pitch in the past (1.52 ERA L4 starts here), so I can see him finally earning that elusive 'W' today. It's not like the Halos have much of a homefield advantage this season; they're only 15-23 in their own park.

Speaking of struggling at home, Angels' starter Hector Santiago has a 6.55 ERA in seven starts here this season. He's looked better in his L2 starts, but a 4-0 TSR to start the season now seems like "forever ago." Since then, the team is just 5-6 w/ him on the bump. Santiago allowed four runs in 7+ innings when he faced Oakland earlier in the year. 10* Oakland

8* Belgium (3:00 ET): With the way the bracket is set up, I think you have to like Belgium's chances of possibly reaching the Final. After dropping their Euro Cup opener (to Italy), they've responded with B2B clean sheets against Sweden and Ireland, allowing them to finish tied with the Azzurri atop Group E. Their round of 16 opponent is Hungary, the surprise Group F winner (just five points) that finished with just one win and two draws. Suffice to say, Hungary has exceeded expectations thus far, but conceding the three goals vs. Portugal has to be at least a little bit concerning. I'm on Belgium here.

Remember that Kevin De Bruyne did not play vs. Italy. That wasn't the sole reason Belgium lost that game, but it was certainly a contributing factor. But since his return, the team hasn't even conceded a goal. This is a club that came into Euro 2016 ranked second in the world. Hungary is ranked only 20th.  The only time in the last 20 years where these two sides faced off came back in 2009 w/ Belgium winning easily, 3-0. Passing accuracy has actually been key so far for the Red Devils (80%) as only Spain and Germany have been better in that department so far. 

To put things in their proper perspective, it had been 50 years since Hungary had made it out of the group stage at a major tournament such as this one. Though they tied Wales (who awaits the winner of this one in the quarterfinals) for top scoring team in group play (six goals), three of Hungary's six goals came outside the box. I think that the "moment" might prove to be a little too big for Hungary here and having conceded the three goals their last time out (more than Belgium has conceded the entire tournament) is a little concerning given Belgian form and all the scoring options they possess. 8* Belgium

8* Washington (2:10 ET): I've been positively stunned over the results that have taken place this weekend at Miller Park where the lowly Brewers have been able to post B2B victories at the Nationals' expense. That leaves the Nats on a seven-game losing skid, but in terms of run differential (+69) they remain one of the elite teams in the game by ranking 5th in that department, ahead of both the Rangers and Giants, who are each playing above .630 ball for the year. I fully anticipate Washington avoiding the sweep on Sunday even though Stephen Strasburg again had to be scratched. Milwaukee's current win streak (four games) matches a season best and the previous 4-game win streak had come at the expense of Atlanta & Cincinnati.

The Nats are in danger of being swept in a second straight series. The week got off to an ominous start w/ Strasburg being scratched Monday in what was supposed to be a showdown vs. Clayton Kershaw. But the bigger problem for the team right now has been a lack of runs scored as they're averaging just 3.1 per game during the seven-game slide. Interestingly, even w/ Bryce Harper mired in a terrible slump, they have managed to outhit their opponents over the course of those L7 games. In their lineup is the top hitter in the game this year, Daniel Murphy, who collected three more yday. As far as Roark replacing Strasburg goes, note that before Tuesday, the former hadn't lost a decision in almost a month.

Roark still turned in a quality outing this past Tuesday at Dodger Stadium, allowing only three runs in 7 1/3 IP.  He'd 4-1 w/ a 3.19 ERA over his six starts previous to that one and in 8 of 15 starts overall he's allowed 2 ER or fewer. Five times he hasn't even allowed a single run!  I like Roark a lot better than the Brew Crew's Jimmy Nelson, who still has a 2.00 WHIP his L3 starts even after allowing just one run and six hits at Oakland on Tuesday. Milwaukee still lost that game mind you, 5-3, dropping Nelson's team start record to 0-4 in June. He'd allowed a total of 14 runs in the first three while lasting only 13 innings. The Brewers haven't swept the Nats since 2011 and I keep coming back to the rather sizable chasm that exists in the National League this year between contenders and non-contenders. When the two groups are matched up, I'm almost always going to side with the former. 8* Washington

5* France (9:00 AM ET): Much has been made over the "lopsided" bracket in the Euro Cup. Clearly, the half of the draw that contains Germany, Spain, Italy, France and England is going to be tough. But the host nation (France) should have little difficulty in reaching the quarterfinals as they draw Ireland early Sunday. Les Bleus finished group play w/ two wins and a draw and took Group A w/ seven points. Ireland, meanwhile, was a third place finisher in Group E as they had one draw, one win and one loss. 

Being the host certainly gives France some advantages and sure enough they are unbeaten in their last seven fixtures at Stade de Gerland. They are also unbeaten in their last five vs. Ireland (W3 D2) going back to 1981!  Ireland has never played here in Lyon nor have they ever previously progressed to the knockout stage here in the European Championships. So the fact that France has lost three straight times themselves in the knockout stage seems fairly irrelevant. Ireland has scored just one goal against France in the last 35 years!

Prior to the draw vs. Switzerland, France had won eight of nine fixtures. Their +3 goal differential during group play was tied for tops among all teams. Meanwhile, Ireland's goal differential was -2.  They would not have gotten through if not for Robbie Brady's late goal vs. Italy. France has conceded just one time in the tournament and didn't allow a goal in either of the last two matches. Remember they had little to nothing to play for against Switzerland when it was a 0-0 draw. Meanwhile, Ireland's opponent (Italy) had little to play for in the previous fixture. Poor showings vs. Sweden and Belgium were more telling. Another key edge here has been the time to prepare for the hosts. They've been off for a full week while Ireland's had just three days between matches. 5* France

10* British Columbia (10:00 ET): So far, home teams are 0-2 SU/ATS this CFL season, but here we have our lone home dog of the week, British Columbia, who is catching points against Calgary in a renewal of a long-standing Western Division rivalry. It's a rivalry that the Stampeders have really owned going back to the end of 2014 w/ five consecutive wins and covers. But I feel tonight's season opener marks a breakthrough for the Leos, who will be welcoming back Wally Buono to the sidelines after a four-year sabbatical. Take the points.

Three of Calgary's four regular season losses last year came on the road. Them being favored here in B.C. is somewhat foreign territory. In recent years, there have been a couple times where the line closed as a pick 'em, but one would have to go back a very long time to find the last time the Stamps were actually favored to win a game here at B.C. Place.  It's a bit of a new era in Calgary with RB Jon Cornish retiring and John Hufnagel turning over the headset to Dave Dickenson, who makes his head coaching debut. The Stamps also lost long-time DC Rich Stubler. Do not be surprised if this perennial power stumbles a bit in 2016, at least early on in the season.

The return of Buono, one of four head coaching changes in the West Division alone, should bring back fond memories for Lions fans as the last year he coached (2011), the team ended up winning the Grey Cup. Of course, it's not as if Buono lost familiarity with the organization as he'd been serving as GM for the last four seasons. I feel not enough people are talking about the Leos right now as they are coming off a 7-11 SU season, but they're certainly undervalued in this revenge spot as they will take the field w/ a 35-9 playoff loss and 31-21 preseason loss fresh in their minds.  10* British Columbia

10* Atlanta (8:05 ET): The underdog Stars burned me a bit their last time out, covering a 10.5-pt spread on the road against Dallas as they lost by only a seven-point margin (97-90 in overtime). It was their second straight game covering as a DD road underdog as they'd previously lost "only" 81-75 at Chicago when taking 13.5. While a return home might offer some promise for this hapless team, it also means a much smaller number and I think there's a ton of value here in going against what has been the league's worst team to this point (2-11 straight up). Atlanta, off B2B losses, should be ready to rebound here and I'm laying the points.

After a 6-1 start to the season, the Dream have now lost four of six. They were humbled in a 30-point setback last Saturday in Washington, but that result came after they had to play an overtime game the night prior vs. Chicago (at home).  The team was 3-0 in OT games this year, including a 73-63 win over San Antonio in the season opener, before they went to double OT three nights ago against New York in what ended up being a somewhat misleading 90-79 final. Note that the Dream shot only 33.3% from the floor in that one, the second time this season they've had trouble shooting the ball against the Liberty. But they should have little difficulty scoring here against a San Antonio team which has allowed all of its opponents to score at least 80 pts in regulation during the course of its four-game losing streak. The Stars have allowed 80 or more pts in regulation in each of their last six losses.

At the same time, San Antonio is also the league's lowest scoring team at 74.3 PPG and they are 11th (out of 12) in FG%. Both wins this year came against teams w/ losing records. If Atlanta can start shooting better from three-point range, then they should have no problem pulling away in this one. The fact that the Dream have now failed to cover three straight games has also contributed to the value we're able to get here. Note San Antonio is just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. 10* Atlanta

10* Over Portugal/Croatia (3:00 ET): Despite a very disappointing performance in the Group stage (three draws against inferior competition), Portugal is through to the knockout stage where they'll face a Croatia side that generally made news for "all the wrong reasons" thanks to unruly fan behavior which very well could have resulted in them being left out of the final 16. But a somewhat shocking 2-1 win over Spain gave them Group D and here they are. Considering Croatia scored twice in all three matches during group play and what we saw in Portugal's last fixture (3-3 final vs. Hungary), I like the Over here. Note that the winner moves on to take on the winner of Poland-Switzerland in the quarterfinals.

It cannot be understated how much Croatia's win over Spain surprised me. La Roja had looked as good as any side in this entire tournament through its first two fixtures and Croatia was coming off the debacle against Czech Republic where a 2-0 lead quickly turned into a 2-2 draw as unhappy fans began hurling flares onto the field, which clearly had an impact on the team. But give Croatia the nod for bouncing back and speaking of "back," they'll now have both Luka Modric and Mario Mandzukic "on the pitch" after they were forced to sit out the match w/ Spain. Meanwhile, Ivan Perisic has looked as good as any player in the entire tournament (scored or assisted on seven goals).

Cristiano Ronaldo somewhat carried his side to the 3-3 draw vs. Hungary by finding the back of the net twice. It's difficult to lean on one player so heavily, but that's been the case with Portugal and Ronaldo for years now.  Portugal has never conceded in three all-time matches w/ Croatia, but I certainly don't expect another "clean sheet" here. Note all three goals allowed to Hungary came outside of the penalty area, the first time that had happened at the European Championships since 1980! At the same time, Portugal has scored six goals themselves in the three matches and I would not be the least bit surprised to see them maintain that average here. Ronaldo should continue to shine as having 40 direct free-kicks so far should eventually result in another goal. 10* Over Portugal/Croatia

    

8* Chi Cubs (4:10 ET): Well, the Cubs' longest losing streak of the season (four games) is now over and one could argue that they essentially had last night's game "in hand" after the top of the first as they scored four runs off starter Tom Koehler. The reason that one could make such an argument is that the Cubs are now an astonishing 44-3 this season when scoring four runs or more. Miami actually did score four runs of its own in the bottom of the first (more on that in a moment), but was really able to generate very little at the plate throughout the game. I feel that the Cubs should easily be able to get to their "magic number" of four runs scored here against the lightly regarded Paul Clemens, who will be making just his second start since 2013.

Yesterday's game was the first this entire MLB season where both teams scored at least four runs in the first inning. But, as alluded to above, the Marlins generally did very little at the plate Friday night. They managed only two hits for the entire game, one of which accounted for all their scoring - a 1st inning grand slam by Justin Bour. That only came about due to an error from SS Addison Russell and two walks, meaning all four runs were unearned for starter Kyle Hendricks. From that point on, Hendricks and the Cubs' bullpen dominated a Miami lineup which is tied for only 20th in runs scored. It should be a similar story today w/ John Lackey starting for the Cubs as he carries a 2.78 ERA, 0.979 WHIP and 9-5 TSR into this one. Lackey is working on a streak of 10 consecutive quality starts.

You probably don't need me to tell you just how dominant the Cubs have been this year. Their +163 run differential is more than double that of the second best team (Boston at +79) and they are a ridiculously impressive 29-5 in games decided by four or more runs. Injuries have become a bit of a concern here, but there's so much talent on hand that one could simply call this an "embarrassment of riches." Witness Wilson Contreras, who is now batting .412 since being called up. This is a real "tall order" here for Clemens, a spot starter for Miami, who gave up three home runs in his first start (vs. Colorado) and that was NOT at Coors Field. He has NEVER won as a starter in six big-league tries. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Baltimore, Game 1 (7:05 ET): I have to say that with an early 3-0 lead and getting +1.5 runs, I was feeling pretty confident Friday night w/ the Rays. They carried that lead into the bottom of the fifth, which is when the Orioles finally put one on the board (didn't put a runner on base until that frame). The sixth inning is when things came apart though. There, Baltimore scored four times to take the lead for good. The final result obviously keeps the O's in first place in the American League East (42-30) and leaves the Rays 10.5 games back and a season-worst nine games below the proverbial Mendoza line. The teams will play a doubleheader Saturday and w/ TB now having lost eight straight, I've learned my lesson. The quick turnaround does the road team no favors here.

Manny Machado returned to the Baltimore lineup on Friday (had to serve four-game suspension for charging the mound) and paid immediate dividends w/ a home run in the eighth inning that put the game out of reach. You'll recall that Machado is batting .317 for the year and now has 18 home runs and 43 RBI's. The Orioles had already homered a total of 42 times in their last 20 games before last night, so w/ the two more longballs, Rays pitching definitely looks to be in trouble moving forward. Up in Game 1 will be Matt Andriese, who has been putting a fair share of runners on base his last three starts. That's why his WHIP is 1.558 as last time out he walked four batters.

The Orioles counter w/ Kevin Gausman, whose 2016 returns admittedly haven't been too encouraging. He's personally winless in 12 starts (4-8 TSR) w/ a 4.37 ERA and 1.353 WHIP. He's struggled in B2B starts, but this is an opponent he should handle. Aside from the first inning, the Rays didn't score last night and they came into the game averaging just 2.1 rpg while batting a collective .183 the L7 days.  Baltimore has really cleaned up at Camden Yards this season w/ a 28-13 home record. Their own offense is batting above .325 the last week. 8* Baltimore, Game 1

8* NY Yankees (1:10 ET): The team in pinstripes has generally been taking care of business during what you certainly could call a favorable stretch of games. It started last weekend in Minnesota when they took three of four from the Twins. They managed only a split w/ Colorado at home mid-week, but then were able to beat Minny yet again yday, 5-3, in the series opener here at Yankee Stadium. This is shaping up to be another good weekend for the Yanks, who are now back at .500 for the season. The Twins are a dreadful 23-50 this season. Not only is that the worst record in baseball, they have the worst run differential (-117) as well. They are only 8-25 on the road and just 2-9 vs. NY since the start of last season. I'd say it's fairly easy decision as to who to go with here.

Minnesota arguably "beat itself" yday, committing three errors in the loss. That's something that a team this bad simply cannot afford to do.  More bad news is that the Twins are just 4-17 vs. the AL East this season as well as 10-20 in day games. There are hardly any positives to report w/ Paul Molitor's club right now and that includes today's starter Ervin Santana, who carries a 2-11 team start record into today's ballgame. The only pitcher in baseball that has more "L's" in the column when it comes to TSR is James Shields at 3-12. Santana has a 1.602 WHIP on the road this year and had allowed 5 ER in three consecutive outings before actually beating the Yankees his last time out. I highly doubt the Yankees will lose to him twice in a row.

There were two really positive takeaways for the Yankes coming out of Friday night's game. One was the return of Mark Teixeira to the lineup. First base has been somewhat of a "black hole" for the club and Teixeira should somewhat solidify the position, but in the field and at the plate. Two was the performance of Aroldis Chapman, who hit 100 mph on the radar gun ELEVEN straight times yday! The Yanks' shiny bullpen trio of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Chapman is really coming together as the team is now 11-0 this season when they all appear in the same game. They've combined to retire 18 straight batters the L2 games, including a perfect 9 for 9 last night. Starting in front of them today will be Michael Pineda, who has a 1.091 WHIP his L3 starts. His job is simple - get this one to the bullpen. The Yankees are 14-3 the L3 seasons as a ML home favorite of -175 to -200, including a perfect 3-0 in 2016.  8* NY Yankees

10* St. Louis (10:10 ET): Suffice to say, one could make the argument that these have been the  "unluckiest" teams in their respective leagues so far this season. Both sport run differentials that are among the top eight in the sport. St. Louis has outscored its opponents by 72 runs over the course of the year (tied for 3rd best), yet is only five games over .500 and that's after sweeping the Cubs in Wrigley earlier this week. Meanwhile, Seattle is actually now a game below .500, despite a +46 run differential. They've dropped six in a row, half of those by a one-run margin. In this series opener, I'm siding with the Redbirds as they had they day off yday and the Mariners are being forced to turn to Wade LeBlanc on the mound.

The M's lost in excruciating fashion on Thursday as Detroit scored the GW run on a wild pitch in the bottom of the 10th inning. That was only after Seattle had the potential go-ahead run on third with nobody out in the top half of the frame (he ended up being thrown out at the plate). Something to keep in mind here is that the Mariners have actually been WORSE at home this season (15-18), continuing a three-year trend where they are just 92-103 at Safeco Field. Things may have reached a nadir yday as scheduled starter Adrian Sampson injured himself warming up. If you're wondering why guys like Sampson and LeBlanc are getting turns in the rotation, it all goes back to the crippling injury to ace Felix Hernandez. His ongoing absence from the starting rotation clearly coincides w/ the team's 8-19 slide the past 27 games.

So, it was supposed to be Taijuan Walker going in this spot for Seattle, but he had to be scratched due to a foot injury. So in steps LeBlanc, who will be making his first start of 2016. LeBlanc was just acquired Wednesday (from Toronto) and will be the seventh different starter for Seattle in the L7 games. Obviously, none of the previous six have won.  The Cards counter w/ Carlos Martinez, who is probably deserving of better than a 7-6 team start record given his ERA is 3.17 and his WHIP is 1.093. He threw seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball vs. Texas his last time out, improving his ERA/WHIP to 1.69/0.938 his L3 turns. St. Louis is an impressive 23-12 on the road thus far and outscoring teams by 2.0 runs per game! 10* St. Louis

8* Seattle (10:05 ET): Needless to say, these aren't two of the league's better teams. Seattle comes in at 4-9 straight up and has dropped three in a row, most recently failing as 11-pt home dogs to Minnesota, losing that game 96-84. Connecticut, 3-10 SU and in last place in the Eastern Division, is actually off a rare win here as they beat San Antonio on Sunday (same day Seattle lost to Minnesota), 93-90, but they failed to cover as five-point chalk. As difficult as it may seem to lay points in a battle of bad teams, that's what I'm doing here.

Connecticut's three wins this year have all been by four points or less (by a combined eight points). One of those wins came against Seattle, by a single point, at home. Off their previous two wins, the Sun have lost by six (in overtime) and eight points. Over the L4 games, they've allowed 93, 109, 80 and 90 pts. The 109 came in a triple overtime loss to Washington at home, but still defense is an issue as the team is giving up 89.0 PPG on the road. What's most disappointing about this start for the Sun is that they've played eight of their 13 games at home.

Seattle did beat Connecticut here at home earlier in the year, by 12 points, as they shot a blistering 56.1% from the floor (season-high). The Storm actually wound up as three-point favorites on the road for the rematch. Even though they lost outright, they still seem like a value back on their home floor where they are averaging 83.8 PPG.  Connecticut has played six of its last seven games at home, yet won only one time, while this is Seattle's second game back after a four-game road trip. The situation favors them.  8* Seattle

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): I've had a pretty good pulse on this Arizona team the L2 days, first going against them on Wednesday (they lost 4-2 to Toronto) and then backing them yday here in Denver (they won 7-6). So, I feel pretty comfortable in the decision to fade them again here as they were a) a little lucky to hold on last night and b) no longer have Zack Greinke to turn to in the series. After falling behind 3-0 yday, the D'backs came back to take a 6-3 lead, only to allow the Rockies to tie the game back up in the bottom of the eighth. The road team won on a Nick Ahmed RBI single in the top of the ninth, but I don't see them being in a similar position tonight. Back the home team.

As I said in yday's analysis, Arizona has been shockingly good on the road thus far. They're now 22-15 away from Chase Field, but just because I took them last night doesn't mean I believe they'll be able to continue the pace. Greinke was a big reason for the 'play on' yday, but tonight sees them having to start Archie Bradley, who had given up four or more runs in 8 of 10 starts prior to his last time out where he was fortunate enough to face the lowest-scoring team in all of MLB (Philadelphia). Bradley has a 6.14 ERA in two career starts vs. Colorado. He allowed four runs in 6 IP earlier this year here at Coors Field, but got bailed out by his offense in what ended up being a 10-5 D'backs win.

This will be the third start of 2016 for Colorado's Tyler Anderson and he looked good in the first two. In 12 IP, he's allowed only three runs and 10 hits while his KW ratio is 10-1. He has yet to allow a home run. He's gotten next to no run support so far, which is why he's still winless, but considering the Rockies have scored a total of 22 runs the L3 games, that should change here.  Even after yday's result, the Rocks still have a better YTD run differential than the D'backs, so this price range is totally justifiable. 8* Colorado

    

10* Montreal (7:35 ET): The Alouettes will try and join Hamilton at 1-0 atop the Eastern Division as they open the season in Winnipeg. Though off a disappointing 6-12 (SU) campaign last year, the Als are better than most people think. Last year's team was not as bad as that record as they suffered six losses by six points or less. Five of those defeats were by four points or fewer and came during a crippling 2-5 start to the season. They were actually outscored by only 14 pts over the course of the entire season! Compare that to Winnipeg, who was just one game worse in the standing (5-13 SU), yet posted a league-worst -149 point differential. The road team getting points here is an exception value. Take the points.

The biggest offseason acquisition in Manitoba was that of RB Andrew Harris, who hopes to jump start an anemic Blue Bombers' rushing attack that was fourth worst in the CFL last year. Be Harris alone can likely not resuscitate a franchise that has stood dormant for many seasons. Winnipeg has lost 11 or more games each of the past four seasons and despite bringing in Harris, there's little signs of upward mobility in the tough Western Division this year. Yes, the injury to pivot (QB) Drew Willy was a killer last year, but this simply was not a good team. It's going to take awhile for all the new pieces to gel. Oddsmakers have pegged the Bombers to win the fewest games in the CFL this season and I'm inclined to agree. Their offensive line gave up 59 sacks last year.

Montreal will be turning to 37-year old Kevin Glenn as their starter to open the season. This offense struggled in 2015, but the defense was actually one of the best in the league and should be again in 2016. With a full offseason to learn the offense, many are predicting that Glenn will be a lot better this year. Remember that last year was the first time since returning to the league (in 1996!) that the Als failed to make the playoffs. After actually losing to the Bombers five straight times, Montreal finally beat them in the final meeting of last year's reg season - by 21 - and I see them coming through again tonight. 10* Montreal

8* NY Mets (7:35 ET): All of a sudden, the Mets can't seen to beat the Braves. This is the fourth series of the season between these two National League East rivals. The first two saw New York take five of the six games, which shouldn't be too surprising. But they've since lost four straight times to Atlanta, including 4-3 yday. How embarrassing. Given what we know about both clubs, this shouldn't be happening.  While 5-5 against the Mets this year, the Braves are 20-42 against everybody else. That includes a 10-27 home record. In a top-heavy National League, the Mets cannot afford to be losing games to such a sorry opponent. They were swept last weekend (at home!), but that will not be the case here at Turner Field. I'm calling for the Mets to get back on track tonight.

It's pretty obvious that the problem with the Mets right now is that they simply don't score enough runs. They scored 17 times in a pair of victories over Pittsburgh last week, but other than that they haven't topped four runs in any of their last 12 games played. Last night was a particularly brutal loss as they led 3-2 going into the bottom of the eighth, but then gave up a game-winning two-run home run. Fortunately, tonight they'll be going up against Aaron Blair. Opponents are batting .298 against this Braves' rookie and he has a 2-8 TSR in his 10 starts w/ a 7.19 ERA and 1.705. Blair has yet to go longer than six innings in any start and has yet to record a victory. If the Mets can't beat him, then they're in real trouble.

Right now, New York is dealing w/ a lot of injuries, which is a big part of the problem. The starting rotation has certainly not been immune, but tonight skipper Terry Collins has the luxury of sending Steven Matz to the bump.  Matz is actually off a hard luck result (where he opposed Blair) his last time out as he gave up only two runs and four hits in 6 IP, yet the Mets still came out on the losing end, 4-3. I expect Matz to step up in this "immediate revenge" spot though as he has a 1.80 ERA in four career starts vs. the Braves. As for Blair, his ERA after facing the Mets twice is 4.76. By the way, Atlanta has not won a game all season in which it has been a ML home dog of +150 to +175 (0-4). 8* NY Mets

8* Tampa Bay Run Line (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. Though they've been able to maintain first place in the American League East for some time now, I'm not sure I'm sold on Baltimore. Sure, they won again Wednesday, but that was at the expense of lowly San Diego, who actually beat them the previous day. It's been a home-heavy schedule to this point for the Orioles, who have played 40 of their 71 games at Camden Yards. Their YTD run differential of +28 actually ranks only third in their own division and sixth overall in the A.L. I realize that this is another home game for the O's and that the Rays have had a miserable L7 days, but the road team won't do any worse than a one-run loss here.

Tampa Bay had been playing well at the start of June, but then ran into a pair of hot teams - San Francisco & Cleveland - both of whom swept them. That makes it seven straight losses for this club, who is clearly reeling. They also didn't fare well in their first visit to Baltimore this season, dropping both games in a rain-shortened series. But they then managed to take two of three when the O's paid a visit to Tropicana Field later in April.  The fact that starter Matt Moore has a 0.950 WHIP his L3 starts is certainly encouraging as he's been especially good in the last two, first giving up only two hits in seven scoreless innings vs. Houston (10 K's). Then he allowed just two runs and six hits in 6 IP vs. San Francisco.

Though both teams had Thursday off, I give a minor edge to Tampa Bay from a scheduling perspective as Baltimore had to play a make up game in Texas on Monday and has played 29 games in 30 days and that's before factoring in tomorrow's doubleheader. There's no guarantee that the return of 3B Manny Machado to the lineup (suspended L4 games) will result in any kind of boost tonight. O's starter Yovani Gallardo has yet to really look good this season, posting a 6.26 ERA and 1.696 WHIP and his last time out (1st start in almost two months), he walked four batters. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

1* Oakland Run Line (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm recommending grabbing the "+1.5" w/ the A's. Is everyone REALLY willing to trust Tim Lincecum after he made just one good start for the Angels? I'm not. The Angels also just got swept in Houston to start the week. Take the run line.

These teams just met last weekend, in Oakland, and the Angels took two of three. But the one Athletics win came w/ Kendall Graveman on the bump. He starts the series opener here for the A's, now the road team. Graveman allowed just one run on three hits and lasted seven innings against the Angels last Friday in what probably qualifies as his best start of 2016. That said, he has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his past six starts.

The day after Graveman led his team to victory, Lincecum did the same for the Halos, allowing only one run and four hits in 6 IP. I expect the Oakland hitters to fare better this time around now that they've all faced Lincecum once. Though the Angels have taken five of six from the A's so far in 2016, two of the wins were by one run and in only one of the games have they topped five runs. Road team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 1* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Arizona (8:40 ET): So, I went against the D'backs yday, but will back them here today. Why the change? Well, first off, it's a big-time drop in class of opponent (Toronto to Colorado). Secondly, and obviously this was the major one, Zack Greinke will be toeing the rubber for them today. While Greinke initially had troubles adjusting to his new home park (Chase Field), there have been no such issues on the road this year as he is 5-0 in six starts away from home (6-0 TSR) w/ a 1.47 ERA and 0.837 WHIP. Yes, this is hitter-friendly Coors Field he'll be pitching in tonight, but any damage he might suffer should be mitigated by the fact that counterpart Eddie Butler has a 10.29 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three starts here himself.

In yday's analysis, I brought up Arizona's unusual home vs. road dichotomy this season. The team is 13-25 at Chase Field, but 21-15 everywhere else. Their entire five-game win streak, which was snapped yday, came on the road. Even after the loss Wednesday, they've managed to hold opponents to 2.1 rpg and a .184 batting average over the last week. Greinke should keep the string of strong pitching efforts going. He's on a seven-start win streak and is 8-1 w/ a 2.39 ERA his L9 starts.  In his four June starts, Greinke has a 0.85 ERA and has allowed all of three runs in 31 IP. 

The Rockies return home having dropped five of six (all on the road). They've also lost the last three starts made by Butler, who has not helped himself by posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.733 WHIP during that time. His last start here at Coors Field saw him allow eight runs in just four innings and that was against the lowly Reds. Don't let this price range scare you either; Arizona is a perfect 5-0 this year as a ML road favorite of -125 to -150. 8* Arizona

8* Dallas (8:35 ET):  This is a Western Conference battling featuring two teams trending in very different directions. In their first year in Dallas, the newly rechristened Wings (formerly Tulsa Shock) have made a pretty good accounting for themselves, save for a six-game losing skid. Otherwise, they've gone 6-1 SU and here they are off three straight wins, including B2B upsets of Phoenix. One of those came in triple overtime, but they followed that up by hitting the century mark (100 pts) in regulation here at home two nights ago (shot 52.8% from the floor). On the other hand, San Antonio is struggling big time; they've lost three in a row and are only 2-10 straight up for the season (league's worst record). Lay the points.

The same night that Dallas was shooting the lights against Phoenix, San Antonio was busy losing at Chicago by a score of 81-75.  This is now the Stars' third consecutive road game, the first being a close (as in three-point) loss at Connecticut. Both of the teams' wins this year have come at home and one of them was by only a single point. On the road, they've been outscored by an average of 7.2 points per game.  Only two of their games thus far have been against the league heavyweights, Minnesota and Los Angeles (both against LA).

Dallas is the top team in the West that isn't Minnesota or LA right now and is third in the league in scoring at 86.0 PPG. San Antonio is - easily - the league's lowest scoring team at 73.0 PPG.  When examining the Wings' season to date, note that Skylar Diggins missed the first eight games and upon her return has led the team in scoring B2B games while averaging 14.0 PPG.  She leads her team to a double digit win here. 8* Dallas

10* Hamilton (7:30 ET): Provincial rivals open this CFL campaign w/ the Argos hosting the Ti-Cats. Both teams went 10-8 last year and thus met in the first round of the playoffs w/ Hamilton coming out on top (at home) 25-22. Toronto supporters will want to focus on the pivot (QB) situation here as well as the revenge angle, but I don't think we should be selling Ti-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli short just yet. All things considered, the value is on the dog in this one.

Masoli looked great in the 2H vs. Ottawa in LY's Eastern Final and I'm confident he will step in and play well for Hamilton under starter Zach Collaros returns. He looked good in both preseason games, completing 15 of 24 passes for 179 yards.  CJ Gable is probably the league's best dual-threat running back. Defensively, this team gave up the fewest points in the East Division last season and was #3 overall in the league. Perhaps most important of all though is that they took all four matchups w/ Toronto last season. The three regular season wins all came by eight points or greater.

With a new outdoor stadium and a healthy Ricky Ray, there is plenty of optimism surrounding the Toronto team right now. But there are still big-time question marks defensively and I feel the Ti-Cats will be able to score enough points here to keep it interesting, if not pull off an outright victory. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the Boatmen here. Not only did Hamilton sweep last year's season series, but they have covered 9 of the previous 10 meetings.  10* Hamilton

8* Chi Cubs (7:10 ET): For the first time all season, the Cubs were on the wrong end of a sweep. They came out on the losing end of all three home games vs. St. Louis, matching their longest losing skid of the entire season. Note that when they lost three in a row the first time this season, it was two losses to the Giants and one to the Cards. The Cubs followed that up by winning their next six games. I believe it's once again an opportune time to back the best team in baseball as they visit an overachieving Miami club that hasn't exactly been doing a ton of scoring lately. The Cubs have a big-time edge in starting pitching here as well.

With numerous players on the disabled list currently, this is the first time all year that Chicago is facing some real adversity. But let's put things in their proper perspective, shall we? The Cubs' YTD run differential of +164 is more than DOUBLE that of the second best team (Red Sox at +77). They're outscoring opponents by 2.4 rpg and have actually been BETTER than that average on the road (2.9 rpg). This season has seen them go 7-2 w/ as a ML road favorite in the -150 to -175 price range.  As for Miami, well, the Fish have improved their own YTD run differential recently (now dead even in runs scored/allowed), but the fact they are four games above .500 tells me that they've slightly overachieved.

I like that Jon Lester is getting the baseball for the Cubbies. He has a 1.69 ERA on the road this year and over his L3 starts overall, his ERA is 1.29 and his WHIP is 0.905.  The Cubs have won all three games and are 11-3 overall w/ Lester on the bump this season. In fact, the team has won each of the last five times he's started. All five starts were quality ones and Lester allowed all of seven runs (five earned) during that time, while going 36+ innings. Lester is a much better option here than Wei-Yin Chen is for Miami as the latter has a 9.88 ERA and 1.903 WHIP in his L3 outings. That's obviously pretty terrible. Somehow the team has still managed to win two of those games, including the last one where Chen allowed six runs in just 2 1/3 innings. That won't fly here, however, as the Cubs are 43-3 this year when they score 4+ runs. Miami is actually being outscored by 0.6 rpg here at home. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Under White Sox/Red Sox (1:35 ET): The White Sox are going for a rare four-game sweep on the road here, a scenario that I think few could have imagined. Coming into this series, the club had dropped 26 of its last 36 games and seemed to be in dire straits. But after pulling out B2B 3-1 victories in the first two games at Fenway Park, it was yet another two-run victory yesterday, albeit this time in more high-scoring fashion. I had a pretty logical Under play that won on Tuesday and will go back to that approach again here and that's even with one of this afternoon's starting pitchers struggling mightily - and that's putting things mildly.

James Shields has been an unmitigated disaster since coming over to the White Sox in a trade w/ San Diego. There's really no other way to put it.  In his three starts w/ his new team, he has a 21.80 ERA and 3.806 WHIP! Obviously, because of him and him only, all three of those starts have finished Over the total. Going back to his final start w/ the Padres, Shields is the first pitcher since 2012 to allow 6+ runs in four consecutive starts. But, as I often stress, it's a good idea to "buy low, sell high" in the world of sports betting. Simply put, Shields cannot continue being this bad (he'll be out of a job!). Note that prior to the L4 starts, he had not allowed more than 4 ER in ANY start this season! The Red Sox lineup that he faces here had scored all of four runs in three games previous to yday.

Meanwhile, the pitcher opposing Shields is one that we can count on, especially given his previous performances here at home. Rick Porcello has yet to lose in six starts here in Fenway, going a perfect 6 for 6 w/ a 0.983 WHIP.  His last time out, which was here vs. Seattle, saw him give up only two runs in 6 IP and finish w/ a 6-0 KW ratio. Before yday, Chicago had scored all of 12 runs its previous five games and had been held to three or less in 7 of its last 10.  They had only four runs on the board through seven innings last night before rallying to take the game in the final two innings. Day games have seen the White Sox average only 3.3 rpg this season (.230 batting average). Hopefully, we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth here, always a nice break when you're playing an Under. 10* Under White Sox/Red Sox

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): It's pretty rare to see the Twins favored on the money line. Last year, it happened only 35 times (in 162 games!). Because the club overachieved so much, they were able to turn a +20.2 unit profit at the betting window. This year has been a very different story. They are dead last in the league - by a pretty substantial margin - at the pay window (-22.8 units), not to mention have the worst record (22-48) and run differential (-112) in all of baseball as well. But as Tuesday showed, this matchup w/ the similarly bad Phillies is pretty ideal for them and I see Minnesota coming through again here for what would be their third consecutive victory.

At one point, you could have made the arguement that the Phillies were the biggest surprise in all of MLB. On May 19th, they stood at 24-17. But their poor run differential was a clear warning sign that a long losing streak was forthcoming and that's precisely what we've seen unfold. Since May 19th, the team has lost 25 of its last 31 games. That includes eight straight losses, which leaves them w/ a -107 run differential, worst in the National League. They are the lowest scoring team in all of baseball (231 runs), so Tuesday had to be particularly deflating as they scored 10 runs (matched a season-high), yet still lost. In fact, they 14 runs they allowed were also a season-high and the fourth time in the last eight game they allowed at least 10.

It's an admittedly ugly pitching matchup here on Wednesday. The Phillies' Adam Morgan has a 2-8 team start record w/ a 6.49 ERA.  Last time out, he allowed seven runs and didn't even make it out of the fifth inning. He gave up three home runs as well as the team lost 10-2 to Arizona. Overall, it marked the seventh consecutive time that the Phils lost w/ Morgan on the mound. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson hardly inspires much confidence w/ his winless record (1-5 TSR) and 9.00 ERA his L3 starts. But at least he allowed only 3 ER his last time out in what I think qualifies as his second best start of the year. He's been a lot better at Target Field where he's allowed 3 ER or less in three of four starts. 8* Minnesota

8* Under Colombia/Chile (8:00 ET):  Though their odds of winning are slightly higher, Chile isn't the kind of prohibitive favorite that you might expect coming off their absolutely dominant 7-0 win over Mexico. That's because Colombia is a worth adversary. Save for a 3-2 loss to Costa Rica, Colombia has conceded just one goal in their other three matches. They come off a far less convincing result, however, as they had to go to penalty kicks against Peru. We know that Chile will regress offensively in this one, so I'm on the Under. 

Chile must deal with a major personnel loss here as key midfielder Arturo Vidal will be out due to a yellow card. That's going to be big as almost all the pre-match talk will be cetered around his absence. La Roja simply isn't going to have the same ease scoring goals than they enjoyed vs. Mexico.  Again, Colombia has conceded only one goal in its three Copa America wins. Their HC - Jose Pekerman - has never lost to a Chilean side in 16 years. He could be going from a 4-2-3-1 to a 4-3-3 here to counteract the Chilean attack.

Of course, Colombia could not score until penalty time either in the quarterfinal. Lost in the seven-goal explosion from La Roja against Mexico is the fact they kept their first clean sheet of the tournament. Chile will - easily - be the toughest side that Colombia has faced so far.  Both goaltenders have played relatively well throughout the Copa America.  I know that in the past these teams have played to some high-scoring results, but that will not be the case here. 8* Under Colombia/Chile

8* Toronto (4:05 ET): I was really surprised to see the Blue Jays fall, at home, to the D'backs on Tuesday. Not only does the American League traditionally dominate Interleague Play, but Toronto had a bit of a "built-in" advantage in that Arizona had to play the previous day in Philadelphia. However, I should point to the fact that the D'backs scored four runs on just three hits while Toronto wasted a perfectly good start from Marco Estrada, who is now the ONLY pitcher since 1900 to allow five or fewer hits in 11 consecutive starts while going at least six innings every time out. I fully anticipate the home team rebounding tonight, as they should again have the edge in starting pitching and hopefully won't leave seven runners on base like they did yday.

This afternoon, it will be J.A. Happ toeing the rubber for the home team. Estrada held this D'backs lineup in check last night and so too can Happ here. Don't be fooled by Happ's somewhat pedestrian ERA; his WHIP (1.149) is pretty good and has actually improved over the course of his L3 starts. His last time out, Happ allowed only one run (and it was unearned) on three hits over the course of seven innings. The team has won four of his last five starts overall and five of six this year here at home. There have been seven different times this season, exactly half of Happ's starts, where he's allowed 1 ER or less.  As far as being this large a favorite on the ML, that should be just fine considering the team is 16-4 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -175 to -200. As a -190 ML favorite earlier this year, Happ led the team to a 12-2 win over the Rangers.

Arizona has now won five straight, all on the road. It's been such an odd season for them as they're 21-14 on the road and just 13-25 at home. But four of these wins during the current streak came at lowly Philadelphia. That series is a big reason why they've allowed just seven runs these L5 games. But Toronto came into Tuesday averaging 7.4 rpg over the last week. The D'backs' starter Wednesday, Robbie Ray, has a WHIP of 1.573 for the year. YTD run differential confirms that the Blue Jays are clearly the superior team here and remember they did out hit the D'backs 8-3 yday.  Wednesday has simply not been Arizona's day this season as they are just 1-10, plus they are 50-71 in day games the L3 seasons. 8* Toronto

6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): Quite frankly, I was tempted to give out the Mets yday (as a premium release) w/ Noah Syndergaard on the hill (they were a free play). But he ended up being scratched. Fortunately for the Mets, they still won (2-1) and now they have the luxury of being able to send Syndergaard to the bump w/ an extra days rest. I'm not going to pass on this opportunity a second time. The Mets still have some work to do after an embarrassing weekend (were swept here at home by Atlanta!) and I think they sweep this brief two-game set.

The Royals came into this series having won eight of nine, all against division rivals. But in five of those last eight victories, they got away w/ scoring four runs or less. They weren't so lucky Tuesday, obviously. Let us remember that this is a National League park they're playing in here, which means the pitcher has to come up to bat. Something else to consider is Kansas City's somewhat frightening home vs. road dichotomy. While they've cleaned up at Kauffman Stadium so far this year (25-8), they're now just 13-24 away from home, getting outscored by over 1.0 rpg. Simply put, I'm not ready to buy into the World Series champs just yet. Despite being six games over .500, they have been outscored over the course of this season. Thus, I label them as a clear overachiever. 

Syndergaard has been the Mets' best pitcher this season. whether you're talking wins & losses (9-4 TSR), ERA (1.93), WHIP (0.98) or K's per nine innings (11.14). The team has won six of his last seven starts, including the last three. The performance he delivered his last time out was nothing short of masterful as he struck out 11 Pirates en route to a 11-2 victory. He lasted 8 1/3 innings and gave up only one earned run and five hits. He also didn't walk anybody. Note that his replacement for Tuesday, Bartolo Colon, wound up being lost after the first batter due to injury.  That speaks to the Royals' current offensive struggles.  Syndergaard leads his team to victory this afternoon.  6* NY Mets

5* Portugal (12:00 ET): When ranking the biggest disappointments so far at this year's Euro Cup, Portugal has to be pretty high, if not at the top. Through two matches, they have just two points, obviously having played to a draw both times. Considering who the competition was, that's pretty unacceptable for a team that was expected to win its group. The opening match draw w/ tourney neophyte Iceland was particularly embarrassing for Fernando Santos' team. Then it was a scoreless draw w/ Austria. But they still have Cristiano Ronaldo in the starting XI and as the odds suggests, I see Portugal coming through here.

A loss on Wednesday would eliminate Ronaldo and company from the tournament. A draw likely gets them through to the knockout stage, but I don't know why they'd want to leave that to chance. A win here definitely gets them through and a two-goal win could have them still finish a top the group. Fortunately for Portugal, surprising Hungary should likely already be satisfied w/ the fact they are through to the knockout stage. Who would have ever predicted they'd be in such a position through two matches? They arrived in France having won just two of their past eight matches. They have lost all five competitive matches vs. the Portugese by the way.

In the last three meetings, Portugal holds a 10-0 advantage in goals scored! Portugal has not lost in its last nine fixtures overall (W7 D2) and really deserves a better fate than the two draws they have so far. This will be the first time Hungary has ever progressed to the Round of 16 in a Euro Cup and coming into the tournament they were predicted for last in the Group.  Portugal has NEVER failed to make it out of the Group stage at a Euro Cup. 5* Portugal

    

5* Argentina (9:00 ET): Putting patriotism aside, heavily favored Argentina is clearly the right side in this Copa America semifinal. This is probably the biggest soccer match on American soil (involving the home side) since the 1994 World Cup when the US played heavily favored Brazil in the Round of 16. Because of all the attention this match is likely to draw, I feel Argentina is actually being undervalued. They are the tournament favorite, have the best player in the world and have rolled to four Copa America victories by a cumulative score of 14-2.  They will progress to the Final as expected.

Even at full strength, the US would be "up against it" here, but they will not be operating at full strength as they are w/o Bobby Wood and Jermaine Jones, both of whom lost appeals on suspensions. They have outscored the opposition by only a 7-3 margin in this tournament and that includes a 2-0 loss to Colombia, a team that will be playing in the other Copa America semifinal. Keep in mind that Argentina holds a 1-0 victory over Chile (the 4th semifinalist here).  Of the four teams remaining, the US is clearly the biggest dog. I don't see how they control Messi, who matched his country's scoring record w/ his 54th career goal vs. Venezuela, and attack at the same time.

Consider this; the US has won three straight Copa America matches. That's one more victory than they had in their previous 13 tries in this competition. Even against a "normal opponent," I'd be calling for a letdown off the surprising 2-1 win over Ecuador.  Argentina though, is no "normal" side. Their 14 goals scored in four matches is the highest tally we've seen in any Copa America since 1959. This team is hungry to win the tournament after losing the final to Chile, 1-0 on penalty kicks, the last time. Having endured a 23-year drought w/o a major tournament trophy, Argentina is not going to be prone to any kind of upset here.  5* Argentina

6* Texas (8:10 ET): Perhaps, situationally, this is not a great spot for the first place Rangers as they had to play a make-up game yday. But they did win that game, 4-3 over Baltimore, and now get to stay at home to face the lowly Reds. Given the quality of opponent here, I have no problem backing the AL West leaders. Cincinnati has the worst run differential in the entire National League currently (-107) and is coming off a 6-0 loss on Sunday at Houston. Not only did that defeat drop them to 3-10 in Interleague Play this season, but it puts them in a spot they've yet to win in during 2016. That would be off a shutout loss, a situation that has seen them go 0-4 this season. Texas is really hot right now (and I'm not talking about the weather!), having won seven in a row. They are an easy call on Tuesday.

Rangers starter Colby Lewis has been on fire lately. The right-hander has led the team to victory in each of his last seven outings and in the last three he's posted fantastic numbers (1.96 ERA, 0.696 WHIP). He went the distance his last time out, allowing just one run and two hits against Oakland. He didn't allow any hits until the final inning. Before that, he went eight innings and again allowed only one run, this time giving up just three hits. So that's all of two runs and five hits he's allowed in his L17 innings of work. Cincinnati comes in batting just .219 over its last seven games and is just 28th in MLB (for the year) in OBP at .296. Lewis, by the way, is still unbeaten at 6-0 in 14 starts (10-4 TSR). 

Texas has won 10 consecutive series. If they win the next two games and sweep Cincy, that would make it 11, something no American League team has done since the '02 A's team that was chronicled in Moneyball. This Reds team is just 10-24 on the road this year, including 1-9 as an underdog of +175 to +200. They're just 5-18 in that same price range the L3 seasons. On the runs allowed side of the ledger, no team in all of baseball has given up more this season than the Reds (408). Consider that the Cubs have allowed only 196! On the road, they allow 6.4 rpg and Tuesday starter Anthony Desclafani has allowed 14 hits in 8 2/3 IP so far this season. The Reds' bullpen is a complete disaster w/ a 6.04 ERA and 1.660 WHIP. One could "poke holes" in the Rangers' resume, noting the number of one-run wins they've enjoyed, but the opponent here is one they should dominate. 6* Texas

10* Under White Sox/Red Sox (7:10 ET): After that fast start to the season, it's been mostly "all downhill" for the team from the Southside of Chicago as they've lost 26 of their last 37 games overall. But they did win yday here at Fenway Park, beating the Red Sox 3-1 as big underdogs on the money line (+190!) and now have the luxury of following that up by sending ace Chris Sale to the bump Tuesday. Considering there was an extra inning played last night and the teams still combined for only four total runs, it's reasonable to assume another low-scoring affair might be in the cards tonight, especially w/ Sale involved. Therefore, I'm on the Under in this one.

Now Sale has regressed some recently, posting a 5.59 ERA and 1.552 WHIP over his L3 starts.  But for the year, his numbers are pretty much what you'd expect. It's a 2.94 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 14 total starts and actually his numbers on the road (2.09 ERA, 0.987 WHIP) are better than his numbers at U.S. Cellular Field. Facing the top offense in the game here might seem like a bit of a challenge, but note that the Red Sox are averaging just 3.1 rpg over their last seven contests. Sale has allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his 14 starts. In 32 2/3 career IP vs. Boston, he has 36 strikeouts. His last time out saw him give up three runs in one inning, but that was all he allowed to the Tigers, who were held to just six hits in seven innings. Sale now has a 15-2 KW ratio his last two starts.

On the surface, it might appear as if we have some worrying to do w/ Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz given the way I'm playing this game. Buchholz has not started since May 26th and that's because he'd been ineffective. But so too has everyone manager John Farrell has tried in the #4 and #5 spots in the starting rotation, so Buchholz is back. Outside of one bad appearance vs. Baltimore, Buchholz had been looking good in a relief role, not giving up any runs at all in four of five appearances. He's fared well in the past vs. the White Sox as well w/ four quality starts in five tries. Four Chicago hitters - Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Brett Lawrie and Melky Cabrera - are a combined 11 for 81 lifetime at the plate vs. Buchholz. The White Sox have been held to only nine runs - total - their last four games. 10* Under White Sox/Red Sox

9* Spain (3:00 ET): This is a shockingly great price on the Group D favorites as Spain looks to clinch the top spot and stay perfect before moving onto the knockout stage here in France. Yes, a draw would serve La Roja just fine here. But they are also catching Croatia in a mentally fragile state after the debacle vs. Czech Republic. What appeared to be shaping up as an easy victory for the Croatians quickly turned ugly due to fan behavior and the match ended up in a shocking 2-2 draw. It's going to be very difficult for them to get over that result and the result they need here to "steal" first place in Group D (a win) simply isn't going to happen.

Spain is unbeaten in its last 14 Euro Cup matches w/ 11 wins and three draws. They of course won the whole thing back in 2012. So far, they have rolled to victories over Turkey and Czech Republic by a combined 4-0 margin. Again, a draw here would mean nothing here in the grand scheme of things, but it could lead to a matchup w/ Italy in the Round of 16 and I think that's something Vicente del Bosque's club would like to avoid. Thus, I do not anticipate them "playing for the draw" here at all. The defending Euro Cup champs are out to make a statement. I really like what I've seen thus far from Alvaro Morata, who found the back of the net twice against Turkey on Friday.

Croatia, meanwhile, comes into this third match w/ some personnel issues. Midfielder Luka Modric is out w/ a groin injury and Centre-back Vedran Corluka is listed as doubtful w/ a head wound. Yes, this team can lean on the fact that they have scored at least one goal in 10 of their last 11 Euro Cup matches. But the one they didn't was against Spain (1-0 loss in 2012) and La Roja is currently working on a remarkable stretch of 690 minutes w/o conceding a single goal at the European Championships. They've allowed just ONE in their last 11 matches (a 1-1 draw vs. Italy in '12, so again they want to avoid the Azzuri in the Round of 16!). But the big story here is obviously the way Croatia finished against the Czech Republic. A 2-0 lead quickly became a 2-2 draw. After conceding for the first time at the 76 minute mark, then after their fans threw multiple flares onto the pitch, they gave up the equalizer at 89' on a penalty. No way they get over that result. 9* Spain

7* Under Czech Republic/Turkey (3:00 ET):  As I touched on a bit in the Spain-Croatia analysis, one of the most shocking results of this entire Euro Cup tournament so far has to be the Czech Republic pulling out a draw from the jaws of defeat against Croatia. Down 2-0 until finally getting on the board at the 76 minute mark,  a loss still seemed likely at that juncture. Then, all hell broke loose w/ some unruly Croatian fan behavior (flares thrown onto the pitch) and that clearly had an adverse effect on the team and resulted in the Czechs getting the equalizer in the 89th minute via penalty. Quite frankly, the Czechs should feel very fortunate that they even got on the board in the match, let alone pulled out a draw.

The two goals that the Czechs scored in a 13 minute span is a sharp contrast to what we'd seen from this side in its first 165 minutes of play here in the 2016 Euro Cup as that timespan did not see them score a single goal. They wrap up group play here today against a Turkey side that has not found the back of the net in either of its first two matches, a 1-0 loss to Croatia and 3-0 loss to Spain. Needless to say, I don't think the Czechs are capable of the same kind of scoring prowess we saw from La Roja, so I'm on the Under in this one.

Turkey absolutely must win here while the Czechs probably want to do the same to avoid tempting fate. Another draw could leave them on the outside looking in when it comes to the knockout stage. Turkey, as bad it has looked through two matches, will not suffer the same kind of breakdown Croatia did late.  Lineup changes will be made for the Nerazzuri and I simply do not see them conceding three goals again. The Czechs will be w/o captain Tomas Rosicky here due to a thigh injury (he's done for the tournament).  Obviously, a loss here sends either side home. I know many, especially Turkish fans will want to point to the final Group game these two played back in '08 (3-2 Turkey win that got them through to the knockout stage), but this will be a lower-scoring affair. In my opinion, this should be a matchup of two goal-less teams. 7* Under Czech Republic/Turkey

8* Under Angels/Astros (8:10 ET):  I'm on the Under in this divisional matchup. Both teams won via a shutout Sunday. The Angels won 2-0 over the A's and allowed just four runs in the series (just six runs in L4 games). Every game of the A's series stayed Under the total for them. Opponents are batting just .225 against them over the last week. With Houston, they've been just as stingy on the runs allowed ledger, if not more. Opponents are hitting just .222 them against the last week, averaging only 2.7 runs per game. The Under is now 10-1 their last 11 games overall after a 6-0 win over the lowly Reds yday. Just one time in those L11 games has an Astros game seen more than eight total runs scored. Again, go w/ the Under here.

Houston will have its best pitcher (this season) going today. Doug Fister has a 10-3 team start record, earning backers a solid +8.7 units. He is easily the best in the starting rotation in terms of ERA (3.26) and WHIP (1.23). His last three starts have all been fantastic w/ him turning in a 1.40 ERA and 1.035 WHIP. He's allowed just three runs in 19 1/3 innings. The only one of those that went Over was a game where his offense scored 12 runs. That's unlikely to be repeated here as this is a team that's scoring just 3.7 rpg its last seven w/ a team batting average of .237. The Under is 7-3 in all Fister starts this season.

Angels starter Jhoulys Chacin does not bring in as decorated a resume.  His numbers in his last three starts have been particularly bad.  But, as alluded to earlier, this is not a good offense that he'll be facing tonight. Houston is batting only .238 for the year. In three career starts vs. the Astros, Chacin has posted a 3.15 ERA.  In seven of the last 11 games, Houston has been held to three runs or less. They scored 11 runs the L2 games, but that was against lowly Cincinnati.  Meanwhile, the Halos have scored two runs or less in two of the last three games. 10* Under Angels/Astros

6* San Francisco (7:05 ET): We have two teams trending in very opposite directions here. Pittsburgh is in a really bad way right now as they've dropped 10 of their last 11 overall, who have been "doubled up" in the last seven (outscored by 3.4 rpg). This is a bad spot to boot, as they come off a Sunday night game, on the road, where they lost to the Cubs 10-5.  That was the sixth times during this dreadful 1-10 stretch that they lost a game by 5+ runs. They might get to return home Monday, but only to receive a visit from red-hot San Francisco, winners of eight straight and fresh off a sweep of Tampa Bay. Oh by the way, the Giants will be starting ace Madison Bumgarner. They've won his last 10 starts. There's only one choice here.

If all of the above wasn't bad enough for the Bucs, they'll have to settle for sending the struggling Jeff Locke to the bump. Over his L3 starts, Locke's ERA and WHIP are both atrocious; they're 12.06 and 1.978 respectively. Last time out, he was shelled for seven runs in just four innings against the light-hitting Mets. That was after giving up 11 runs in 4 2/3 innings at Colorado.  Locke has faced off w/ Bumgarner once before and needless to say it didn't go very well. Last August, Locke allowed six runs and 11 hits in just five innings and his team ultimately lost 6-4. While Locke has typically pitched much better at home this year; I'm not sure PNC Park will be enough for the he and the Pirates, who have a 4-14 record in the month of June.  The Giants are also 15-9 vs. LH starters this year.

The Giants love being big ML favorites on the road. This season alone, they are 3-0 this season as a road favorite of -175 or higher. They're 8-0 in that price range the L3 seasons. Obviously, most of those games have come w/ Bumgarner on the hill. As stated above, the southpaw ace hasn't done much losing at all lately w/ a 10-0 TSR his L10 starts, turning in a 1.27 ERA. He has a 0.738 WHIP his last three outings as he's allowed a total of just 12 hits in 20+ innings of work.  Going back to May 11th, the team has won 27 of 35 games and they have been positively dominant in the last seven, outscoring opponents by nearly four runs per game with a batting average that's basically .100 points higher. 6* San Francisco

8* England (3:00 ET): The Three Lions have definitly been living a dangerous life in this Euro Cup, first suffering an unfortuante draw in the opener against Russia (allowed game-tying goal in injury time), then not scoring the game winner until very late against underdog Wales Thursday, thereby overcoming an early one-goal hole. While this final match in Group Play may not be as important to them as it is to Slovakia (England a virtual lock for the knockout stage w/ 4 pts), I feel Roy Hodgson's team is being drastically undervalued in this spot.

After being upset by Wales in their first match, Slovakia appeared to be in trouble. But then they beat Russia, 2-1, and are more than alive for the knockout stage. This is a side that has suffered just one defeat in its last 10 matches. But an aggressive strategy Monday could cause problems as there are six players currently a single yellow card away from a suspension. Also, this side has never kept a clean sheet in six major tournament matches. While the win over Russia was nice, the loss to Wales definitely happened and cannot be forgotten.

Though both results have been close, England has dominated its opponents more than you might think. They have outshot opponents by 21 despite having only one more goal. The last time these sides faced off, it was 4-0 England. Do not be surprised if the Lions score late in this one as past history has shown that is what they do vs. Slovakia. They are 3-0 all-time head-to-head.  I do not think the English will be in "we'll settle for a draw" mode here and are the deeper team.  8* England

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The best team in baseball, without a doubt, finds itself going for a sweep tonight at Pittsburgh's expense. While the Cubs and their amazing +166 run differential (double that of the 2nd best team) remain the story in MLB this season, the decline of the Pirates is something that simply must be touched on here. A team that has made the playoffs each of the L3 years (as a Wild Card) now finds itself below .500 w/ a negative run differential after dropping 9 of its last 10. They've been outscored by more than three full runs per game the last seven and Wrigley Field simply seems like the last place they'd turn things around. They are just 1-7 head to head w/ the Cubs in 2016.

Incredibly, all five Cubs' starters have WHIPs of 1.07 or lower and none have an ERA higher than 3.00. The one who has - clearly - been the unluckiest though is tonight's starter Kyle Hendricks. Seven of the team's 20 losses this year have come w/ Hendricks on the bump. Simply put, he is deserving of a far better record. Here at home, his ERA and WHIP are 1.77 and 0.738 respectively and the TSR is 4-2. So that's good. He's off what I'd call his weakest outing in two months, starting opposite Max Scherzer in Washington, but even then Hendricks allowed only four runs (three earned) and six hits in 5 1/3 IP. Four walks (season-high) burned him.  But I see him bouncing back and earning a much deserved win tonight.

James Tallion's stock is sky-high right now after he held the Mets scoreless and to two hits over eight innings his last time out. But keep in mind that the Mets are the only opponent he's seen so far this season (started against them twice). The Cubs are a far different animal as they are third in all of baseball in runs scored and an amazing 30-4 if they score the game's first run. Even more impressive is their 42-3 record this year when they score at least four runs. The Cubs have scored at least four times in all seven victories this year against the Pirates, six times scoring at least six runs.  8* Chi Cubs

10* Over Cubs/Pirates (8:05 ET): The best team in baseball, without a doubt, finds itself going for a sweep tonight at Pittsburgh's expense. While the Cubs and their amazing +166 run differential (double that of the 2nd best team) remain the story in MLB this season, the decline of the Pirates is something that simply must be touched on here. A team that has made the playoffs each of the L3 years (as a Wild Card) now finds itself below .500 w/ a negative run differential after dropping 9 of its last 10. They've been outscored by more than three full runs per game the last seven and Wrigley Field simply seems like the last place they'd turn things around. The Cubs are averaging an impressive 5.4 rpg here this season. Take the Over.

The stock of Pirates' starter James Tallion is sky-high right now after he held the Mets scoreless and to two hits over eight innings his last time out. But keep in mind that the Mets are the only opponent he's seen so far this season (started against them twice). The Cubs are a far different animal as they are third in all of baseball in runs scored and an amazing 30-4 if they score the game's first run. Even more impressive is their 42-3 record this year when they score at least four runs. The Cubs have scored at least four times in all seven victories this year against the Pirates, six times scoring at least six runs. 

The Pirates offensive numbers have slipped during this slide, but they do remain sixth in team batting average and third in on-base percentage. Thus, it stands to reason that they should be better than 12th in runs scored.  Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has been rather unlucky this season, but did give up four runs his last time out. With the Cubs figuring to score a bunch tonight, I think the Pirates will still be able to cross the plate a few times as well. Thus, we get our Over. 10* Over Cubs/Pirates

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): A SU win by Cleveland in Game 7 would re-write a lot of history. First of all, no team has ever won a NBA Finals after falling behind in the series, 3-1. Secondly, the last time Golden State has lost three consecutive games was November of 2013. Then there is the matter that no Cleveland sports team has won major professional championship since 1964. But of course, the beauty of this play is that we do not necessarily need a SU victory. The Cavs are getting points here and considering that not only are these teams dead even in points scored during the Finals (610-610), but that the underdog has actually been the more efficient side throughout the playoffs (+9.4 vs +6.5 pts per 100 possessions), I'm on the dog.

Going back to Game 3, Cleveland has really dominated the vast majority of the last four games of this series. They've obviously won in blowout fashion three times. Those three SU wins have all come by at least 14 points and by a combined 59. But in the one loss, which took place at home in Game 4, they led at halftime and were up by eight in the third quarter. Clearly, LeBron James has emerged as the best individual player in the series. Not only does he lead his own team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, he leads BOTH teams! In the last two games alone, James has gone for 82 points, 24 rebounds and 18 assists. That's preposterously good. In Game 6, it became clear that James has a point to prove here and that point is that he, not Steph Curry, is the best player in the league. By the way, Cleveland is 8-4 ATS taking points this season.

Home teams have of course traditionally enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage in Game 7's. But the Warriors are reeling right now. If Steph Curry and Klay Thompson aren't making threes, they're in real trouble. Injuries have also begun to hit them at the worst possible time. Andrew Bogut is out and Andre Iguodala isn't 100 percent, which is a killer defensively. The team's lone remaining interior presence is Festus Ezeli is a non-factor. Harrison Barnes is a horrific 2 for his last 22 from the field. Remember that James has averaged 34.4 PPG in Game 7's in his career. 10* Cleveland

10* Seattle (7:05 ET): Many times, the linesmakers simply fail to account for the discrepancy that exists between the top and bottom of this league. This season has seen two teams - the Lynx and Sparks - both start 11-0 straight up. LA has been slightly more impressive at the betting window, going 8-3 ATS as opposed to "just 7-4" for Minnesota. They also have a slightly better point differential. This all being said, I do not believe Minnesota should be laying double digits on the road at this point of the season. Seattle, while just 4-8 SU overall, is being outscored by only 3.6 points per game for the year.  Take the points. 

The host Storm are off a disappointing four-game road trip where they lost three of the games, including the last, 88-79 at Dallas as 5.5-pt dogs. However, since dropping the season opener by 30 at Los Angeles, this team hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. That includes covering a slightly smaller spread in a 78-71 home loss to the Lynx back on May 22nd.  It should be noted that Seattle has been a competitive 2-3 SU at home this year w/ no loss coming by more than eight points. They should be pretty fired up to host one of the league's top two teams and I like what I'm seeing in terms of line movement here.

For Minnesota, this is a giant look ahead situation as they travel to face fellow unbeaten Los Angeles in two days. They've been off for the last four days since a dominating 24-pt home win over Indiana, so I can see the team being less than interested in winning tonight's game by any large margin.  Believe it or not, the Storm have actually covered the last three meetings between these two side. 10* Seattle

6* Under Romania/Albania (3:00 ET): Even with just one point between them through four matches, qualification for the knockout stage is still in play for both sides here. In the case of Romania, who earned a draw w/ Switzerland its last time out, they could even finish second in Group A w/ a win here and Swiss loss to France. That scenario is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Especially considering Albania has yet to find the back of the net in this Euro Cup.  However, Romania's rather conservative approach that led to the draw w/ Switzerland has me a little concerned over their prospects. I think the most likely result here is an Under. 

Remember that Romania did come into the Euro Cup having been the best defensive team in the field during qualification. They had conceded only two goals in 10 matches. Thanks to allowing a late stunner against France in the opener here, they equaled that number after just one match. They then gave up a goal they probably shouldn't have against Switzerland. But, remember, Albania hasn't scored yet in this tournament.  Romania's lone goal vs. the Swiss was a rather fortuitous one as it came on a penalty. Again, with the 1-0 lead they somewhat failed to be aggressive, which I think cost them. The problem though is that both goals scored so far have come off penalties. If Albania can play clean here, then Romania will have trouble scoring as well.

Only 12 teams currently have three or more points in this tournament. 16 teams advance to the knockout stage, so that means Albania is still alive here despite having yet to win. Like Romania, this is a strong defensive club. They have conceded more than two goals just once in the last six matches. While a clean sheet from Romania here would not surprise me in the least, the fact is they have just one win all-time here at the European Championships. So the best bet here remains the Under. 6* Under Romania/Albania