7* Arsenal (9:00 AM ET): The Gunners’ path into the top four of the Premier League seems quite clear. West Ham lost Saturday (1-0 to Liverpool) and Manchester United (currently fourth) is a big underdog to Manchester City later in the day. Therefore, a win here could have Arsenal top four by the end of Sunday. Sure, they have three matches in hand compared to West Ham and Man U, but why wait? The Gunners are facing a weak Watford side and should have little difficulty taking all three points in this one. 

Now, given the favor Watford did for Arsenal last week, the Gunners won’t be taking this fixture lightly. The Hornets managed to hold Man U to a 0-0 draw, which kept Arsenal just two points back of the Red Devils. On the Watford side, they remain entrenched in the relegation zone, four points clear of safety. Defensively, Watford has been a bit feisty under Roy Hodgson, but they lack scoring punch, having scored just two goals in the six matches since the managerial change. They have also been inept here on home soil, picking up only seven points (out of a possible 39!), worst in the entire Premier League. 

Arsenal won for us last week, getting two goals in the last 14 minutes to stun the Wolves. The difference was an “own goal” in stoppage time. That was Arsenal’s third straight win and seventh in the last nine league fixtures. They’ve conceded just five times in those nine matches and kept five clean sheets. The visitors are clearly the superior side in this one. Time to move into the top four. 7* Arsenal

8* Portland (8:10 ET): The Blazers are in a terrible way right now, but this is a good spot for them to ambush the T’wolves, who are playing the second night of a back to back. Minnesota obviously looked quite impressive last night, easily dispatching OKC, 138-101 as a 9.5-point road favorite. But there, it was the T’wolves in the advantageous situation as the Thunder were coming off a shock 119-107 win as double digit underdogs. Minnesota is rarely a favorite of this size, so I will play accordingly. 

Portland certainly cannot play any worse than it has each of the L3 games where they’ve lost by 30+ points each time out! That is insane. I know that they are short-handed and the roster was reshuffled at the trade deadline, but the team should not be THIS bad. Note those three losses came to Phoenix, Golden State and Denver, all of whom are firmly established in the top six in the West and the Suns and Warriors are the top two teams in the NBA. Minnesota is NOT at that level. Before the All-Star Break, the Blazers were on a four-game win streak (season best) which included wins over Milwaukee and Memphis. 

There is simply no way Minnesota can match what they did last night when they made 22 of 47 three-pointers and had their highest-scoring half of the season. Six players scored at least 15 points. Can you say “letdown spot?” These teams have faced off twice previous to this and while Portland lost both, the games were decided by a total of seven points. This is a great sell-high (Minnesota)/buy low (Portland) spot. 8* Portland

8* Under North Carolina/Duke (6:00 ET): It’s Coach K’s swan song at Cameron Indoor Stadium as this is set to be his final home game on the Duke bench. It’s obviously going to be an emotional setting, facing rival North Carolina in the last game of the regular season. Duke is clearly the class of the ACC this season and beat UNC handily, 87-67, in Chapel Hill earlier this year. Not surprisingly, the Blue Devils are big favorites for the rematch. But I think the better play is on the total. 

In that first meeting, Duke shot a blistering 57.6% from the field. Can’t see that happening again. The teams also combined to shoot 18 of 40 from three-point range, a very high percentage. Again, don’t look for that to be repeated. With all the pregame festivities planned for this game, I can see the shooters affected and this game to get off to a slow start offensively. The last five UNC-Duke games have all gone Over the total, but none will have the emotion of this one. It will not be the kind of “up and down” game we saw last month. 

Duke is also due to cool off here after shooting a blistering 59% against Pittsburgh earlier in the week. In that game, they made 50% of their 3PA. Again, these kinds of numbers simply can’t be produced every game. Note, after the hot shooting in the first UNC matchup, the Blue Devils came back down to Earth 48 hours later and shot just 42.3% in a loss to Virginia. The final score of North Carolina’s last game, 88-79 over Syracuse, is misleading when you consider that it went to overtime. It was 72-72 at the end of regulation. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke

9* Iowa State (6:00 ET): Coming full circle on Iowa State, who was 12-0 SU and ranked as high as #8 (in the country!) at that time. I was adamant the Cyclones, who finished 0-18 SU in Big 12 play last season, were not as good as their record/ranking. Sure enough, they’ve slipped considerably and come into their regular season finale vs. Baylor at 20-10 SU overall. At least they’ve been much more competitive in conference play this season, going 7-10 SU. That said, it was a horrible showing earlier this week at OK State (lost 53-36) and the Cyclones BADLY need an inspired showing here in Waco to seize some momentum for the Big XII Tournament. 

Baylor has no issues right now. They are ranked #3 in the country and coming off huge wins over Kansas and Texas. They need a win here and Kansas to lose to Texas to win the Big 12 regular season championship outright. Regardless, a likely #1 seed awaits in the NCAA Tournament. But coming off such high profile wins, and laying a big number here, it’s a good spot to fade the Bears as Iowa State is the team in more desperate need of a good showing. 

The Cyclones are off their lowest scoring game since 1948 as they shot a season-worst 28.3% from the field. They were just 2 of 17 from three-point range and scored only 16 points in the 2H. Tonight is a revenge game as Baylor handed the ‘Clones their first SU loss of the season, back on New Year’s Day, by a single point. ISU has covered 16 of the last 19 times it has been a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. They can’t shoot any worse than they did Wednesday and have already shown they can compete with Baylor. Take the points. 9* Iowa State

10* Under Pittsburgh/Notre Dame (2:30 ET): The Fighting Irish have an excellent chance of finishing second in the ACC. All they need to do is win here and have North Carolina lose to Duke. The odds of that happening are certainly good. Now, do I think for a second that ND is actually the second best team in the ACC? No. But we can tackle that at a later date. Here, I’m focused on the total, which I believe is too high against a Pitt team that is inept offensively and won’t score very many points Saturday. Take the Under.

Pitt is near the bottom of the ACC with a 6-13 SU record in conference play. Only NC State and Georgia Tech will finish below the Panthers and it’s likely to be a quick exit in next week’s ACC Tournament. Pitt comes into the regular season finale on a three-game losing streak, every one of the losses coming at home, and the last two were blowouts. I mentioned earlier that the Panthers are not a strong offensive team; they average just 60.5 points per game away from home this season.

Notre Dame is allowing just 63.8 PPG in South Bend, so expect Pitt to score fewer here than the 67 they finished with in the first meeting, back in December. The Panthers haven’t scored more than 64 in any of their last three games. Notre Dame, who has seen the Over hit in each of its last six games, is due to have a low-scoring game. Pitt has been victimized by hot shooting each of its last two games, but don’t be surprised if ND shoots worse than usual here as they are off a loss (74-70 to Florida State) and 4-1-1 Under off their L6 SU losses. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Notre Dame

10* Brentford (10:00 AM ET) - Playing this one a little “safe” in that I’m taking Brentford as a “Draw No Bet” wager, which means a draw is a push instead of a loss in this scenario (different from playing the 3-way line). Make no mistake about it though, I expect Brentford to win here and get the full three points. The Bees are arguably the most underperforming side in the Premier League as they are actually 9th in xPts and have a xGD of just -3.69. The fact this newly promoted side is actually 15th in the table with a -17 GD is terribly unfortunate. I think, at this price, we are getting them in the ultimate “buy low” spot. 

Norwich City, who was also promoted to the top flight before the start of this campaign, is easily the worst team in the Premier League. They have a -40 GD and are at the foot of the table (i.e. in last place), looking like a lock to be relegated down to the Championship for next season. The misery continued midweek as the Canaries fell 2-1 to Liverpool in the fifth round of the FA Cup, thus eliminating them from that particular competition. It’s now four straight losses across all competitions for Norwich, who we just successfully faded last Friday against Southampton. They’ve been outscored 11-2 during the skid. 

Brentford is actually on an even worse run right now, having come up winless nine straight times. They’ve shipped multiple goals eight times during that stretch, but shouldn’t be overly concerned about conceding here as Norwich has scored only nine goals on home soil all season (fewest in EPL). This is a revenge spot for the Bees as they lost the reverse fixture 2-1 back in November. Brentford won both the xG and possession battle in that first meeting; I simply cannot see them being swept by the basement side. Unlike the other two promoted sides (Watford, Norwich), I can’t see Brentford falling into the relegation zone, so this is a critical three points they need to pick up. I believe they will. 10* Brentford (Draw = No Bet)

10* Villarreal (8:00 AM ET): I have to say that I am somewhat shocked to see red hot Villarreal at ‘plus money’ against Osasuna this week. The Yellow Submarine are unbeaten in their last five La Liga matches, winning four times and keeping three clean sheets. Still, they are only seventh in the table (after Real Sociedad won midweek), which seems undeserved given they have the second best goal differential in the league. I feel that Villarreal is very much a top four side in La Liga and with the second leg of the Champions League (vs. Juventus) still two weeks away, they should handle their business on Saturday.

Osasuna currently sits 11th in La Liga, just four places below Villarreal, but that’s highly misleading as they have a -6 YTD GD and are 10 points back. Really, having more than cleared themselves from the relegation zone, Osasuna can be nothing more than a mid-table side at this point. Two teams below them actually have better YTD goal differentials. Having failed to score in three of its last four fixtures, this is a bad matchup for Osasuna against a side with the three recent clean sheets of its own. Osasuna’s 25 goals scored this season are fourth fewest in all of La Liga.

It’s quite shocking that in each of Osasuna’s last eight fixtures, there has never been a time where both sides have scored. Clearly, if one side is to get on the scoresheet here, it is Villarreal, who have outscored the opposition 29-8 over the L10 La Liga matches. The only teams to hold them scoreless in that run are table leaders Real Madrid and (surprisingly) Elche. Adding “fuel to the fire” here is the fact Villarreal has revenge from a 2-1 loss in the reverse fixture back in October. The better side won’t lose twice. Be on the lookout for 19-year old Yeremi Pino, who had four goals LW against Espanyol, including a first half hat trick. 10* Villarreal 

8* Under Knicks/Suns (10:10 ET): Two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum are meeting Friday night on ESPN. The Suns have firmly established themselves as the best team in the NBA right now. They are 50-12 on the season and have won 20 of their last 23 games. Following a RARE two-game losing skid (lost to New Orleans and Utah), the Suns bounced back in a major way on Wednesday with a 30-point beatdown of Portland. They are surprisingly short favorites tonight against the moribund Knicks, but there’s a reason for that (more on it in a moment).

The Knicks have lost six in a row and 10 of their last 11. They are 0-6 ATS L6 and 1-10 ATS L11 as well. Even making the play-in round now seems like a bit of a stretch as the Knicks trail the 10th place Hawks by five games. Playing better defense would help. Over its last five games, NY has given up an average of 120.2 PPG. All five games have gone Over the total. This is a team that normally allows “just” 107.3 PPG. But, as alluded to earlier, they are catching a major break tonight. 

That major break is that the Suns won’t have Chris Paul or Devin Booker aka “their starting backcourt.” I know that they just dropped 120 on Portland without the pair, but it seems unlikely that they could repeat that performance here. Note that tonight’s total is about 10 points higher compared to the season’s first Knicks-Suns matchup, which had both Paul and Booker in the lineup! I’m less concerned about how the absences will affect Phoenix’s defense, which is #3 in the NBA in efficiency. Also, the Knicks are 27th in pace. 8* Under Knicks/Suns

10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Am I falling prey to “recency bias” here? I don’t think so. The 76ers have won four in a row, while averaging 126 PPG, the last three coming with new arrival James Harden in the lineup and those wins have all been by 15 points or greater. Harden has been great so far with 82 points, 27 rebounds and 37 assists. Now the Sixers have faced the Knicks twice and Minnesota. But the Cleveland team they host tonight seems to be heading in reverse and a surprising first half of the season. I’ll lay the points in this one. 

Not only are the oddsmakers seemingly catching up the Cavaliers, apparently so is the rest of the NBA. Over the L6 games, the Cavs are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 straight up. The streak began with a loss to Philly, pre-Harden. Now it may seem as if I’m being unfair to Cleveland as injuries have taken their toll. But with Caris Levert and Rajon Rondo again expected to be out for tonight’s game, this team is at a disadvantage. They were blown out at home by Charlotte, 119-98, on Wednesday.

With Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are now a legit threat to take over the East. It’s odd to see the Sixers have a better record on the road, considering last year they were MUCH stronger here in the City of Brotherly Love. Defensively, they are allowing just 105.5 PPG at home this season and Cleveland has failed to even score 100 in three of its last six games. Look for the Sixers to continue rolling with Harden and move closer to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. 10* Philadelphia

8* Under Illinois State/Northern Iowa (1:00 ET): This is the first of four MVC quarterfinals on Friday. The top seed is Northern Iowa, who had a bit of a shocking late season run to earn its position, beating conference favorite Loyola Chicago (in overtime) in the final game of the regular season. The Panthers have won 9 of 10 (lone loss was a blowout to Loyola) and have shot the lights out in each of their last three games. But in this early start, I’m looking for scoring to be a lot lower than expected. 

Illinois State had to win a game to get here. The Redbirds downed Indiana State yesterday, in an ugly 58-53 game where they covered the spread as 1.5-point chalk. ISU has been one of the more unlucky teams in the country this season, but now finds itself playing with “house money.” It can’t be ignored that before defeating Indiana State twice (also faced them in the reg season finale), the Redbirds had lost 10 of 11. Really, their only chance here is to slow the game down. They can’t outscore Northern Iowa. 

Let me point out that both regular season meetings between these teams stayed Under. There were 142 and 143 total pts scored in those games. Looking through the season results, this is a high O/U line for both teams. Both have had only two games where the O/U line was higher than 149. Northern Iowa has shot better than 55% over its L3 games, a number they cannot possibly maintain at a neutral setting. The Panthers have gone 21-8 Under in their L29 MVC Tourney games. 8* Under Illinois St/Northern Iowa

10* Under Northern Colorado/Montana (9:00 ET): The Big Sky regular season is wrapping up this week. This is an important game with Northern Colorado and Montana battling for seeding. Both are locks to finish in the top five, which means a bye in the first round. But both also have a chance to finish as high as second depending on how things go. Montana is coming off a big upset win over Montana State, who has already clinched the regular season title. Northern Colorado just won a wild game over Idaho. 

Since I am playing the total here, I should probably mention that EVERY Montana game in the month of February went Over. That’s eight straight Overs. They’ve allowed three straight opponents to shoot 51% or better from the floor. But the key here is how the Golden Grizzlies’ defense improves - remarkably - at home where they are giving up an average of only 58.2 PPG this season. That’s top 16 in the country! Against Montana State on Sunday, they allowed just ONE three-pointer to be made! 

Northern Colorado has gone Over in four straight and beat Idaho 98-94 on Sunday (no overtime!). Both teams shot 55% in that game, which I can’t see being replicated here. Because of all the Overs, this number opened 17.5 points higher than the closing O/U line for the first meeting. So I’m seeing lots of value here. This is a very high total by Montana standards. In fact, it’s the highest O/U line for any of their games this season. 10* Under Northern Colorado/Montana

8* Boston (7:40 ET): Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off tonight in Beantown. Memphis is third in the West with a 43-20 record and has won 24 of its last 30 games. Not to be outdone, Boston has won 12 of 14. Though they are currently just sixth in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics actually have the best YTD point differential in the East and I think they are a lock to move up the standings. Even with Jaylen Brown ruled out tonight, I believe the home team should be favored in this one. 

Now stopping the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant is a challenge for any team. Morant has scored 98 points in the last two games, setting a new franchise record twice. He scored 46 vs. Chicago, then 52 vs. San Antonio (on 22 of 30 shooting!). But I believe Boston, one of the top defensive teams in the league, is uniquely suited to slow down Morant. This is the #2 team in defensive efficiency for the season and they are #1 over the last month or so. Their only two losses over the last month both came in the second night of a back to back. 

The Celtics probably needed yesterday off after rallying back from 17 down to defeat Atlanta. I can’t see them falling into that kind of hole again here. I have a ton of respect for Memphis, but think they will fall to the 4-seed by season’s end (Utah is better). Morant is probably due for an “off game” as well. As a team, the Grizzlies shot the lights out vs. San Antonio on Monday and also held the Spurs to 28% from three-point range. They can’t count on that kind of disparity here against a better team. 8* Boston

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): These teams met right after the All-Star Break with Chicago winning 112-108. Fortunately, I bet Atlanta early enough in the day that I still cashed plus the points. Since that win, the Bulls have lost two in a row, falling to Memphis (116-110) and Miami (112-99). I’m on the record as saying I think the Bulls are likely to slip a bit in the Eastern Conference standings, where they are currently second despite having the sixth best point differential. Once again, I’ll be taking the points with Atlanta. 

The Hawks rebounded from that last loss to the Bulls by beating the Raptors 127-120. Unfortunately, then they blew a 17-point lead against the Celtics and ended up losing 107-98. Now getting up 17 on a team that’s been as hot as Boston is an achievement. But the Hawks really shot themselves in the foot with poor shot selection down the stretch. Expect better shot selection here tonight and it should be mentioned how the Hawks are much better at home (where they are 18-13 SU on the season). 

This is a big revenge game for Atlanta. Not only did they lose last week in Chicago, but they are 0-3 SU against the Bulls in 2021-22. The Hawks are not only revenge-minded, but more desperate than the Bulls because they are only 10th in the Eastern Conference and just one game away from not making the playoffs at all. I do think they will move up, but with Kevin Durant set to return for Brooklyn, it’s going to be tough to move up very far. The Bulls have struggled defensively ever since losing Ball and Caruso. Trae Young had only 14 points in the last meeting. He’s scored 72 in the two games since. 10* Atlanta

8* Kennesaw State (7:00 ET): Kennesaw State has been incredibly unlucky this season, finishing fourth in the A-Sun East Division despite being tied for the fifth highest rating (in the conference) over at KenPom. I think the Owls can give Western Division Champ Jacksonville State a real scare here in the quarterfinals, even though they are at the disadvantage of having had to play a game to get here. On Monday, the Owls defeated Eastern Kentucky 82-73 and covered the 3.5-point spread. 

This game is at Jacksonville State as the higher seed gets to host all games in the A-Sun Tourney. Jacksonville State certainly ended the regular season well, posting four straight wins and covers. All four wins were by double digits. But now could be a good chance to “sell high” on the Gamecocks, who are just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season. It was only a six-point game when they won at Kennesaw State back in January. Kennesaw is 5-1 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 

Also, while Kennesaw is just 2-4 SU over its last six games, they have been remarkably competitive. The four losses have either been by less than six points or in overtime. The Owls really should have a better record and this is a game with some serious upset potential. The underdog has outscored its opponents over the course of this season, which further illustrates how unlucky they have been. Eventually, a team’s luck WILL turn and I give the dog an excellent shot at pulling off the outright win here. 8* Kennesaw State

8* Oakland (7:00 ET): I’ve got the Golden Grizzlies rated as the better team here, so I’m surprised the line has moved this way. Oakland did need a win to make the quarterfinals while Wright State had a bye. But that disadvantage is mitigated by yesterday being an off-day. And it’s not like Oakland was really tested on Tuesday. They won rather easily, 69-58 over a terrible IUPUI team, and while they did not cover, take note that the spread was pretty massive (-23.5). I’m taking the better team and the points here. 

The reason Oakland failed to cover Tuesday was that they were just 8 of 27 from three-point range while IUPUI was 9 of 15. Still being able to win by double digits, while being on the wrong end of that kind of three-point percentage disparity, is pretty impressive. Now, as was already stated, IUPUI is a terrible team (maybe the worst in the country). But I’ve got Oakland rated as the top team in the Horizon, even though they finished fifth! Yes, you’ve got to factor the home court edge for Wright State into this line. But I don’t think that’s enough for Wright State to be favored by this many. 

Oakland has double revenge from the regular season, losing the two meetings by 4 and 11. Both were one-point games at half. I think it speaks volumes that in the regular season finale, Oakland was a favorite over regular season champ Cleveland State and won rather easily. They’ve struggled at the betting window much of the season, but this is a rare time they are underdogs. Wright State does not defend the three-point line well and I don’t think they’ll outrebound Oakland the same way they did in the two regular season matchups. Trust me on this one. Oakland is the better team! 8* Oakland

10* Oklahoma City (9:10 ET): The Thunder have obviously struggled to win games this season, but only Memphis has a better ATS record, OKC has covered at a 64.4% rate this season. That said, they did lose by 21 at home to Sacramento on Monday night. You’ve got to think we’re getting a bounce back effort from the Thunder tonight and I will take the big number. 

The Thunder have played Denver tough in the two previous meetings, both of which were played in OKC. They won outright (by 14!) in the first one, then only lost the rematch by four points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back in the lineup now and he has scored 30 or more in all three games since returning. 

I just think this is a good time to “sell high” on Denver, who is a season-best 11 games over .500 and coming off a 32-point win over Portland. The Nuggets are still without some key players. Looking at the Nuggets’ current six-game win streak, only twice have they prevailed by more than 10 and twice they won by only a single point. 10* Oklahoma City

10* LSU (9:00 ET): This is a big one for LSU, who I consider a Top 20 team in America, but they are just 8th in the SEC with an 8-8 SU record. To me, the Tigers should be up there competing with the top four for a conference championship. Tonight they face an Arkansas team that is up in that top four and whose only loss in the last two months was by a single point at Alabama. The Razorbacks are 9-0-1 ATS their L10 games as they pushed as two-point favorites over Kentucky this past weekend. 

I have the underdog rated as the better team here, so this is too many points and I’ll gladly take them. LSU has won four of six, but both losses were by a total of seven points and one was at Kentucky. The Tigers certainly remember losing as 6.5-point favorites to Arkansas back in Baton Rouge last month. Now it's payback time. 

This is a tough spot for the Hogs, coming off the win over UK. They also have Tennessee on deck. Tonight marks just the sixth time that LSU is an underdog this season. They are #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* LSU

8* New York (7:40 ET): The Knicks are going for immediate revenge here as they lost to the Sixers, at home, 125-109 on Sunday. The team, which made the playoffs last year, has now failed to cover the spread in 9 of its last 10 games and finds itself on the outside of the playoffs, four games back of the Hawks. It’s now or never for NY if they are to make a playoff push. Though tonight’s rematch is on the road, I don’t see the Knicks getting blown out. I’m taking the points. 

The Sixers have won three in a row, all on the road. But they are also 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. This will be the Sixers’ first home game since 2/15 when they were absolutely humiliated (losing by 48) to Boston. Here, all we are needing is the underdog to stay within single digits.

The Sixers are winning by an average of just two points per game at home this season. They are third in the Eastern Conference coming into tonight, but my power ratings consider them the fifth best team. Note that on Sunday, it was only a two-point game entering the 4Q. 8* New York

8* UNC Asheville (2:00 ET): UNC Asheville will look to make it a season sweep over Charleston Southern this afternoon. The two regular season meetings weren’t even close with the Bulldogs winning by 23 at home and 19 on the road. Going back, they’ve beaten Charleston Southern all six times over the L3 seasons. This will be the first time, during that stretch, that the teams are meeting in the Big South Tournament. I expect the favorite to roll here. 

Charleston Southern, who is seeded last in this Tourney, has just one win in its last 12 games and it came over a non-DI foe (Toccoa Falls). Since then, it’s been six straight losses, most of them by double digits. The Buccaneers’ one and only Big South victory this season took place at home, against High Point, and it was by just four points. This is a bad basketball team, folks. 

UNC Asheville was taken to triple overtime in its regular season finale, but did end up beating Presbyterian 98-96. That was a well-earned victory after dropping the previous two games by a total of six points. Now note the number of points that Charleston Southern allowed in its regular season finale (92) and that was just in regulation. UNC Asheville is 10-3 ATS L13 after allowing 80+ points while Charleston Southern is 2-9 ATS its L11 in that same situation. Lay the points. 8* UNC Asheville

8* LA Lakers (10:00 ET): It’s getting to be desperate times for these Lakers, who are six games below .500 and just got their doors blown off, 123-95, at home by New Orleans on Sunday. Certainly, the best Laker fans can hope for is making the play-in round for a second straight year, which does not match the preseason expectations for this club. LeBron James has not endeared himself to management with recent comments about a possible second return to Cleveland. The team was soundly booed off the court after getting blown out by the Pelicans. 

But I think this is a solid “buy low” spot on the Lakers. It’s a national TV game, at home, and they aren’t going to want to be blown out yet again. They’re facing a Dallas team that I took on Sunday and it ended up being a very fortunate outright winner as the Mavs came back from 21 down to stun the Warriors 107-101 as a 3.5-point underdog. I’ll take the win, but it’s almost as if Golden State “fell asleep at the wheel,” scoring just 13 points in the 4Q and shooting 28.2% from three-point range for the game.

As I said in my analysis, the Warriors were short-handed for that game (no Thompson or Green). The Lakers won’t have Anthony Davis, but they do have LeBron James and are getting points at home. The Mavericks are wrapping up a five-game road trip here and have a rematch with the Warriors (in Dallas) on deck. I feel that this game is way more important to the home team and thus taking the points is the best option here. The Lakers are 9-2 ATS this season after scoring 100 pts or less the previous game. 8* LA Lakers

10* Over Clippers/Rockets (8:10 ET): Second time in a row these teams are facing off, which is probably just fine as far as the Clippers are concerned, considering that the Rockets have now lost nine in a row and 13 of their last 14. It was a low-scoring game when they met on Sunday, 99-98, with the Clippers rallying to win in the 4Q. The Under was an easy winner there (by more than 30 points!), but you should expect a lot more points from tonight’s rematch and I’m calling for an Over. 

Houston games average the most possessions in the league as they play at the fastest tempo. More possessions (theoretically) should lead to more points. The thing is neither team shot all that well on Sunday as the Clippers made only 44.2% of their attempts while the Rockets were down at 38.0%. The teams did combine for 76 three-point attempts and there’s no reason to believe we won’t see a similar number tonight. For the year, the Clippers and Rockets combine to average 73 3PA per game. 

The Rockets also have the league’s worst defensive efficiency rating, not a surprise seeing as how they are allowing 117.8 PPG, easily the most in the NBA. Sunday marked the first time since November 6th that they held an opponent below 100 points. Even so, Houston has still allowed 123.8 PPG over its last five contests. Los Angeles is a lock to score a lot more here and Houston should be more effective inside the arc than they were on Sunday (just 18 of 50 on 2PA). It’s a big increase in points that the oddsmakers are asking for, but then again the Over is 18-9 in Rockets’ home games. 10* Over Clippers/Rockets

8* Holy Cross (7:00 ET): Though they dropped BOTH regular season meetings to American U, I absolutely LOVE the situation here for Holy Cross, who is getting this 1st round Patriot League tournament matchup at home due to still finishing with a better conference record. American U has just five conference wins this year and finished in the basement of the Patriot League. In addition to two of the wins coming at HC’s expense, the Eagles won their final regular season game, 65-55 over Loyola MD. 

The fact that American won their last game only enhances my desire to fade them here. The Eagles have not won two straight conference games all season. They also have just three road wins. One of those obviously came here, but that was a game where Holy Cross turned in a putrid offensive effort in the 1H, scoring just 14 points. I think it’s fair to say that won’t be repeated tonight. The idea that American U would sweep three games against the same opponent just seems unlikely to me. 

Holy Cross actually has more than just double revenge coming into this one, they’ve actually lost the L6 head to head meetings. While you might then argue that history is NOT on the side of the home favorite here, I would beg to differ as American U has not won B2B games at any point since Dec 8-11. I find it quite hard to believe the Eagles could beat the same team on the road twice in the same season. After an ATS win this season, American has gone 2-11 SU and been outscored by 10.9 PPG. 8* Holy Cross

10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): I like the value we’re getting here. Eastern Michigan was a 2.5-point favorite when it won at Kalamazoo back on January 4th. The final score of that game was 85-79 and the Eagles never trailed and led by 17 at the half. Now not a ton has gone right for EMU since winning that conference opener. They come into their final regular season home game having dropped 12 of 15 and have failed to cover each of the last four games. But this is a VERY winnable contest where they are laying a short number to the worst team in the MAC. I’m laying the points. 

Western Michigan had zero conference wins entering Feb 12, but have shockingly won three of their last five, including a 78-67 upset at Bowling Green (were 8.5 point underdogs) on Saturday. That win snapped a 13-game road losing streak for the Broncos, so the idea of them winning AGAIN on the road seems far-fetched. Here’s the other thing; only the top eight teams in the MAC qualify for the conference tournament and WMU has already been eliminated from contention. So they’ve got NOTHING to play for these L2 games. 

Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan can still find its way into the Conference Tourney by winning its last two games. So their motivation is high here. I know the Eagles have struggled to cover the spread recently (1-7 ATS L8), but again, this seems like a REALLY solid value at home against the worst team in the MAC. EMU should have no problem scoring on a team that gives up nearly 80 PPG on the road. 10* Eastern Michigan

10* Fresno State (10:00 ET): The upcoming Mountain West Tournament figures to be a real “dogfight” with the likes of Boise State, Wyoming, San Diego State and Colorado State considered the favorites. But don’t discount this Fresno State team as a possible darkhorse. I realize that the Bulldogs are just 7-7 SU in conference play, but this is a team that ranks #3 in the COUNTRY in scoring defense, giving up just 57.4 PPG. Here at home, that number drops to a paltry 55.7 PPG! 

New Mexico is a team we last checked on last weekend. They traveled to face last place San Jose State, who was still winless in conference play, and promptly lost 71-55 as 5.5-point chalk. I was obviously very glad to have faded the Lobos in that spot. Two days later, they lost again, badly, this time as 12-point underdogs (81-56 to Utah State). Saturday saw them snap their losing streak with a four-point win over Air Force, but they did not cover the eight-point spread. Note that New Mexico has just one SU win this year in conference play against someone other than Air Force and San Jose State, who are the bottom two teams. 

Back on Jan 25, FSU won the first meeting of these teams, 65-60 in Albuquerque. New Mexico is much weaker away from home where it is 2-10 SU and giving up 81.5 PPG. Given Fresno State’s defensive numbers (see above), this has the potential to turn into a real blowout. The Bulldogs have covered six of their last seven games against teams with losing records and with their regular season ending with games at San Diego State and Wyoming, a win here is a must. They won by 25 at Air Force last Tuesday and haven’t played since. So the schedule sets up quite nicely for them to dominate on Monday. 10* Fresno State

8* Texas Southern (8:30 ET): Given the fact Texas Southern was a 2.5-point favorite for the first meeting with Alcorn State (and that was on the road), it would seem as if we’re getting a bit of a “discount” on the Tigers here at home Monday night. Now, the fact TX Southern lost that first meeting, 73-72, obviously had to be accounted for by the oddsmakers. But my power ratings say that they should be double digit favorites in this one. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games overall! 

This game will go a long way in determining the winner of the SWAC’s West Division. Currently, despite losing the first head to head meeting, TX Southern has a half-game edge on Alcorn State. But Alcorn State’s final two games are against the two last place teams in the conference and at home. Figuring they’ll win those, the Braves are in control of their own destiny as far as the division race is concerned. But if TX Southern were to win here and then Saturday vs. Prairie View A&M, they’d win the division based on a better overall WL record.

This is Alcorn State’s second road game in three days. They upset PV A&M on Saturday, winning 72-69 as a 2.5-point dog. It was the Braves’ fourth consecutive road win and they really benefited from the opponent going 4 of 17 from three-point range. Alcorn’s last two victories have been by a total of four points. As for TX Southern, I’ve got them as the favorites to win the SWAC Tournament. They shot an impressive 55% against Jackson State on Saturday (third straight game over 50%) and are winning by an average of almost 15 PPG at home this season. Alcorn State shoot just 40.3% on the road, averaging 63.9 PPG. 8* Texas Southern

10* Chicago (7:40 ET): This is a huge game for the Bulls. Not just because they are a game back of the Eastern Conference lead, but they are also 0-2 vs. the Heat in the 2021-22 season. Those losses were by three in Chicago and 26 here in Miami and both came before Christmas. The Bulls had won six in a row going into Saturday’s game with Memphis, where they ended up losing by six. As the underdog, I like them plus the points here on Monday. 

Miami is coming off its highest scoring game since Opening Night. They defeated San Antonio 133-129 on Saturday to improve to 2-0 since the All-Star Break. I find it very difficult to believe that the Heat can match its shooting from the other night as they made 56.6% from the field against the Spurs. It should be noted that the team is 1-6 straight up the last three seasons when coming off a game where they scored 130 or more points. The Heat may be 8-1 SU over their L9 games, but they have also failed to cover the number in four of the last five.

Chicago, who has yet to have a losing month all season, is desperate for a “marquee” win this season. Including the 0-2 record vs. Miami, the Bulls are just 1-10 SU against teams with a win percentage of .600 or better. Despite injuries, they continue to lean on DeMar DeRozan, who has 10 straight games with 30+ points. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact DeRozan has shot 50% or better from the field in 8 of those 10 games. He and his teammates will shoot better tonight than they did vs. Memphis. The Bulls are 19-4 ATS this season off a non-conference game. 10* Chicago

8* Dallas (7:40 ET): The Mavs let one slip away Friday against the Jazz. They were up seven at halftime after shooting 56% from the field and making 10 three-pointers. But the offense went cold in the 2H (just 48 points) and they went down 114-109 as 6.5-point underdogs. That result leaves them now tied with Denver for fifth place in the Western Conference. Things get no easier on Sunday night as the Mavs stay on the road to face Golden State. But the Warriors are not at full strength right now and this is a game the road team can steal. Take the points. 

The Warriors are second in the West, six games back of the Suns. I do expect that gap to shrink over the course of the next couple months, but for right now the Dubs are still without Draymond Green and Klay Thompson is questionable for tonight. They were dominant on Thursday, winning by 37 in Portland, but the Mavs are a far better team than the Blazers. Golden State actually went into the All-Star Break on an 0-7 ATS slide at the betting window while Dallas is 7-1 ATS its last eight games. 

The irony of Dallas’ defensive breakdown Friday night is that they are one of the league’s top defensive teams. They allow just 103.5 PPG (tied for 2nd in the league) and play at the slowest pace in the league. Controlling the tempo will go a long way here in limiting the Warriors offensively. In two previous meetings, Dallas has held Steph Curry to 3 of 19 shooting from three-point range. I expect this to be a close game where having points in our “back pocket” will be huge. 8* Dallas

10* Utah (3:40 ET): With Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell both back in the fold, the Jazz are beginning to resemble the team that was quite dominant in the early part of the season (began 26-9 SU). They’ve slipped to fourth in the West, but I think Utah is a lot closer to the top two (Phoenix, Golden State) than most realize and they are better than third place Memphis. Coming from behind to defeat Dallas on Friday was a solid start to the second half of the season and I think the Jazz are prepared to make a definitive “statement” this afternoon on national TV against Phoenix. 

There’s been some substantial line movement for this game as the Suns are going to be without Chris Paul and Cameron Payne. This puts the home team at a significant disadvantage for a matchup that would have been pretty even, if they were at full strength. I faded the Suns on Friday when they lost outright at home to New Orleans, 117-102, as a 6.5-point favorite. You could see the effect of not having Paul on the floor as the offense grew stagnant. Also, historically, the Suns’ turnover rate goes way up when not having Paul in the lineup. 

This is a double revenge game for Utah, who lost twice to Phoenix last month, by six and eight points. The games were played in a three-day span and the Jazz were without Mitchell and Gobert for both games. Mike Conley also missed the second meeting. Yet Utah was actually ahead in the 4Q of that game, despite being without three All Stars. Now it’s Phoenix playing with a depleted roster. While the Suns must still be respected, I’m expecting a bit of a second-half decline from them while the Jazz should surge into the top three in the Western Conference. Love this spot for the Jazz. 10* Utah

10* Monmouth (2:00 ET): These MAAC rivals are playing for the second time in three games with Monmouth going for the season sweep. Unfortunately for the Hawks, in between these two meetings with Siena, they lost outright (as a four-point favorite) to St. Peter’s, 70-65. Meanwhile, Siena bounced back with a 78-71 win at Quinnipiac where they were 2.5-point dogs. The Saints have been among the luckiest teams in the country this season and are not even in the top 250 of my power ratings! It is rather shocking to see them tied for second in the conference coming into the final week of the regular season. 

Monmouth could overtake Siena for second with a win here. It would give them the season-sweep and thus the tiebreak. St. Peter’s is also a game ahead of Monmouth and the Hawks were swept by them. But it’s a very favorable last few games here for Monmouth as they should be favored to win out. The Hawks have been absolute beasts on the road this year, going 13-2 ATS, including 4-0 when laying three points or fewer. When they beat Siena last month, they held them to just 19 points in the first half! As I mentioned the last time I faded them, first half scoring has been an issue for Siena all season. They average 30.1 PPG in the 1H! 

Since that last time I faded Siena (a winner as they lost outright here at home to Marist), they’ve won two of three. But this is still a team that I feel is very lucky to even have a winning record this season. They rank 272nd in the country in offensive efficiency and 201st defensively. It is very telling that the oddsmakers have them as underdogs at home for today’s game. Iona is clearly the best MAAC team this season, but I have Monmouth #2 and Siena down at #7 in my own power ratings. Lay the short number here. 10* Monmouth

10* RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): The pressure is now REALLY on Leipzig to get the full three points Sunday after both Hoffenheim and Freiburg won Saturday. Those two sides being victorious kept them level, but also moved them both past Leipzig in the table. Third place Leverkusen also won yesterday and is now seven points clear of Leipzig. But Leipzig has a better goal differential than Hoffenheim and Freiburg and I fully expect them to win here and eventually move up into the Champions League place.

I had Leipzig last week when they ran past Hertha Berlin 6-1 for their most convincing win of this Bundesliga season. Tied 1-1, that match took a dramatic turn when Hertha went down to 10 men because of a red card in the 62nd minute. From there, Leipzig exploded, scoring five times in the next 25 minutes with the man advantage. Since the start of the New Year, Leipzig has scored 26 goals in just nine matches. They were also victorious in Europa League action, 3-1 over Real Sociedad, on Thursday. The road woes seem to be a thing of the past as Leipzig has been beaten just one time (by Bayern Munich) in 2022. 

As for VfL Bochum, who was promoted before the start of this season, they have to simply be pleased by the fact they are currently 10 points clear of the automatic drop zone. Surprisingly, they are unbeaten over the L5 competitions, including a shock win over Bayern two weeks ago. Three of their last five results have been draws though, including LW against relegation-threatened Stuttgart. I just can’t see Bochum escaping the bottom half of the table and they are drastically outclassed in this fixture. It was 3-0 when these sides met in the reverse fixture back in October with Leipzig dominating. 10* RB Leipzig

10* Villarreal (8:00 AM ET); I think Villarreal has a legit claim to being a top four side in La Liga. Unfortunately for the Yellow Submarine, a slow start to the campaign still has them lagging behind in sixth with 39 points. But they have a better YTD goal differential (+18) than all but the top two in the table (Real Madrid, Sevilla) and are just one win away from potentially going level for fourth place (Barca, Atletico results pending). Either Sevilla or Betis (2nd and 3rd) will pick up points this week when they meet in Sunday’s derby. So Villarreal getting the full three Sunday is imperative.

They are set to face Espanyol, who is stuck in the middle of the table. Newly promoted to the Primera Division before this season, Espanyol is eight points clear of the drop zone, which honestly is admirable at this point. They played to draws with Sevilla and Barcelona the last two weeks, but are also winless since December. For a variety of reasons, it’s tough for me to see the White & Blues picking up any points in this fixture.

Villarreal had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Juve in the Champions League midweek, but here on the domestic front they’ve been dominant, losing only once since Dec 12th with seven wins and five clean sheets. The Yellow Submarine were runaway 4-1 winners last week over Granada and are now second in xG in all of La Liga.. Also, only three sides have conceded fewer goals this season. Getting this one on home soil should result in another easy victory and a move up the table. 10* Villarreal 

10* Oregon (10:00 ET): #16 USC has been living dangerously of late, winning its last two games by a total of five points. I played against the Trojans in both games, neither of which they covered. In fact, this team is now 2-6-1 ATS its last nine games. They won in the final second over Washington State last Sunday, 62-60 (as seven-point chalk) after trailing most of the way. Thursday’s win at Oregon State required double overtime. That was against the last place team in the Pac 12. Now, for the first time since their last loss, USC finds itself playing a second straight road game.

Oregon picked up a huge win on Thursday, beating #12 UCLA 68-63 here in Eugene. Can the Ducks now make it a “SoCal double” against two of the league’s three ranked teams? I think so! Oregon has now swept UCLA and can do the same here to USC after besting the Trojans 79-69 as six-point underdogs in LA last month. Firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, a win tonight would do wonders for the Ducks’ resume.

And they are favored! Last month, they were up 16 on USC at the half. This is a team that began the year ranked in the Top 15. USC has two key players - Boogie Ellis and Isaiah White - listed as questionable for tonight. So their depth will be tested on the road. I simply do not think the Trojans are as good as their ranking. They’ve been very lucky this season to go 8-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. The line for this game “tells the story.” 10* Oregon

10* Sacramento (9:10 ET): These teams are meeting for the second time in three days. While Denver ended up “running away” with a 128-110 victory on Thursday, its second double digit win over Sacramento this season, the game was actually much closer most of the way. The Kings’ deficit was only five points entering the 4Q and that’s despite poor shooting from three-point range (ended up 9 of 29). I anticipate the Kings will shoot better tonight and thus taking the points is the move here. 

Now is also probably a great time to fade the Nuggets as they are a season-best nine games above .500. The goal for them is obviously to finish in the top six of the Western Conference, which they probably will, but this is a lot of points to lay for a team that has twice won by a single point during its current four-game win streak. The Nuggets also shot 55.8% from the floor on Thursday, which I cannot seem them duplicating tonight. They are just 15-20 ATS as a favorite in 2021-22. 

The Kings radically changed their roster at the trade deadline as they are desperate to end the league’s longest playoff drought (2006). Entering Saturday, they are 3.5 games out of the final play-in spot as they’ve dropped three in a row going back to before the All-Star Break. It feels like this five-game road trip is going to be a “tipping point” either way for their season. I just don’t seem them losing big again, and honestly an outright win seems more likely in this situation. They are 5-1 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. 10* Sacramento

8* Creighton (8:30 ET): You know the drill with this Providence team. The Friars’ incredible run of luck is bordering on being downright preposterous at this point. After coming back from a 19-point deficit (in the second half!) to beat Butler last Sunday, Providence won in triple overtime against Xavier on Wednesday. Three of their last four wins have required OT and they are also 10-1 SU this season in games decided by five points or less. KenPom, appropriately, has the Friars rated as the “luckiest” team in America and my own power rankings have them as just the SIXTH best team in the Big East. I will continue fading! 

Providence obviously deserves to be ranked (they are 23-3 SU), but if you think this is one of the Top 11 teams in America, then I’ve got a “bridge in Topeka” you might be interested in buying! They are not even in the Top 40 of my power rankings. Five of their last seven wins have been by four points or less and that DOESN’T even include the 3OT game! I simply refuse to believe this run of good fortune can continue. 

Creighton comes in looking to play “spoiler” here. The Bluejays have won six in a row, three of them by three points or less, so they know “a thing or two” about close wins as well. Somewhat appropriately, the two Creighton-Providence meetings last year were decided by a total of six points (road team went 2-0). I am aware that PG Nembhard fractured his wrist against St. John’s and his season is done. But another freshman has returned (Kaluma). Creighton is a hot team and, again, this is all about fading Providence. Take the points. 8* Creighton

8* Atlanta (7:40 ET): This is a TERRIBLE spot for Toronto, who just got wiped out last night in Charlotte. It was a 32-point loss at Charlotte in the Raptors’ first game after the All-Star Break. While they were a hot team prior to the Break, winning 9 of 11, we saw none of that last night as the Raptors trailed by as many as 41 points in the 3Q! Pascal Siakam played, despite flu-like symptoms, and shot just 3 of 13 from the field. The Raptors were outrebounded badly and let the Hornets shoot 55% overall. 

Atlanta lost a close on Thursday, 112-108 in Chicago. They fell victim to DeMar DeRozan as a lot of teams have this month. The Bulls scored the game’s final seven points. The Hawks ended up being a bit short-handed as De’Andre Hunter missed the 2H because of illness, Lou Williams played just 12 minutes and John Collins and Gorgui Deng were both out. Yet the Hawks were right there at the end and that’s despite shooting just 8 of 28 from three-point range and 18 of 27 at the free throw line. 

Both of these teams obviously feel they will play better on Saturday. But the Hawks are better rested and at home. Trae Young is certainly going to have a bounce back effort here after going just 3 of 17 and scoring 14 points on Thursday. Atlanta also needs the win more as they are 10th in the East, only one game ahead of Washington. This is a double revenge spot for the Hawks, who have twice lost to the Raptors over the last month. I like them to get the job done. 8* Atlanta

8* Rutgers (6:00 ET): This is the second time in less than two weeks that Wisconsin, who is ranked #14, is a short underdog to an unranked conference foe. They eked out a 74-69 win at Indiana back on 2/15, but I don’t think the Badgers pull the same trick again here. This is an overrated team, according to my power rankings. I faded them earlier in the week when they escaped Minnesota with a one-point win (Minnesota covered as five-point dogs). The Badgers’ record in close games has been insanely good. I think they’re due to drop one. Oh by the way, Saturday’s opponent (Rutgers) won in Madison earlier this month!

After Wednesday, Wisconsin is now 13-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. They have clearly been one of the luckiest teams in the entire country this season. Clearly, unless you are from Madison, you can’t possibly believe that the Badgers are the 14th best team in the country. I think that they are only the SEVENTH best team in the Big 10! My power ratings have them at #30.

Rutgers has played an insanely hard schedule of late, but they’ve (mostly) been up to the challenge. They had four straight wins over Top 25 teams (including Wisconsin) before losing at Purdue and Michigan. This is a different team at the RAC as the Scarlet Knights are 13-2 SU at home and holding teams to just 59.7 PPG. Look for them to sweep the season series and cover the spread here. 8* Rutgers

10* Juventus (12:00 ET): Neither of these Serie A sides have won in any of their last three respective competitions. But the similarities between fourth place Juventus and 13th place Empoli. Juventus has not lost in their last 12 league matches and also is unbeaten inside of 90 minutes going all the way back to November (last loss was to Inter in the Supercoppa). As for Empoli, they have really hit the skids, last winning a match all the way back in December. Look for current form to hold here and Juve to pick up all three points.

This is also a revenge situation for Juve, who was stunned 1-0 by Empoli in Turin earlier this season. That was also back when “The Old Lady” was struggling. Yet they looked like the better side that day in August, generating more scoring chances and winning the possession battle. They figure to score here in the reverse - probably - multiple times - as Empoli has now conceded 50 goals this season, second most in all of Serie A. They’ve conceded at a rate of 2.3 goals per match during their winless run and 34 of the 50 goals conceded this season have come here at home.

I’ve been forecasting an Empoli downfall for some time now as they are 16th in the league in xPts and have an inferior GD compared to the two sides (Sampdoria, Udinese) directly below them in the table. As for Juve, they are trying to hold on to that last Champions League spot, only three points ahead of fifth place Atalanta. The 1-1 draw against Villarreal in the Champions League was more impressive than it reads and they will not want to let these three precious points slip away. 10* Juventus

10* Under Mavs/Jazz (9:10 ET): Dallas was the top Under team in the league over the first half (of the season) with a 36-21-2 mark. Now, the Under has been hitting a lot more regularly in their HOME games (22-8-1), but what is interesting about that is the average total number of points per game scored in Dallas home games (207.8) is not all that different from what we see on the road (212.3). Facing a Utah team that has gone Under in six of seven games in February, I expect a low-scoring first game post-All Star Break Friday night. 

The way things stand right now in the Western Conference, this would be a first round playoff matchup. Utah is 4th, though I believe there’s a good chance they will catch and pass Memphis for 3rd by the end of the regular season. The Jazz are one of the NBA’s highest scoring teams (113.7 PPG), however their defense has been outstanding this month with 106 being the most points allowed in any game. Dallas is a solid 5th in the West, also having won six of its last seven games. 

These teams have met just one time so far this season and it was on X-Mas with Utah winning a high-scoring game, 120-116 here in Salt Lake City. The Mavs played that game short-handed. Tonight, look for them to control the tempo (they place at the slowest pace in the league) in order to limit the damage Utah can do offensively. Again, this is the first game back after a long All-Star Break and shooters could be rusty on both sides. 10* Under Mavs/Jazz

8* New Orleans (9:10 ET): The Suns played last night and won 124-104 in OKC. Thus they picked up right where they left off before the All-Star Break and have now won eight in a row (and 19 of 20!) and continue to pace the Western Conference with a remarkable 49-10 overall record. This is the best team in the NBA right now, there’s no denying that. But laying this many points, in the second night of a back to back, immediately following a long break seems like as good a time as any to fade them. 

New Orleans is looking to get that last play-in spot. They are 12th in the West, but only 1.5 games back of Portland. Before the Break, they dropped four of five (all at home). But, unlike the Suns, the Pelicans are rested coming into Friday’s tilt. Also, while the overall record may not sound all that impressive, consider the fact the Pelicans started the year 3-16. Since that time, they’ve played .500 ball and been competitive. They now have CJ McCollum, who they acquired from Portland in a trade at the deadline. 

Lost in the Suns’ margin of victory last night is the fact they don’t have Chris Paul (injured) right now. They didn’t need their floor leader against a hapless side like the Thunder, but here it should matter more. I know the Suns have beaten the Pelicans twice so far this season, both times by double digits. But the situation really favors the underdog tonight and they didn’t shoot well in either of those first two head to head matchups. They’re a better team now than they were in January (when they last faced PHX). Take the points. 8* New Orleans

8* Richmond (7:00 ET): Two teams in the upper tier of the Atlantic 10 meet in this Friday night battle on ESPN2. I had Richmond on Tuesday, laying the points with them at GW and they came through with a 84-71 win and cover. Looking back, the Spiders have really only had one bad game (more like one bad half) since losing the first meeting with St. Louis, 76-69 back on Jan 2. Since that time, three of their four losses have been by three points or less. The exception was last Friday at VCU (lost by 20), but that was a tie game at halftime. 

Saint Louis, who is a game up on Richmond for fifth place in the A-10, hasn’t really beaten anyone in the A-10’s upper tier with the exception of a 72-61 win over Dayton three weeks ago. The Billikens dropped two games to St. Bonaventure and were also recently blown out at Davidson. They did rebound from that 21-point loss by defeating St. Joe’s on Tuesday, but that was at home. The Billikens are just 3-4 SU on the conference road this season compared to 7-1 SU at home. 

Saint Louis is the highest scoring team in the A-10, but they struggle defensively out on the road, giving up 76.1 PPG. Look for Richmond to take advantage. I also find it hard to believe that teams will continue hitting 38% of their 3PA against the Spiders here in Richmond. In the first meeting, Richmond held St. Louis to 5 of 19 from three-point range. This is a major revenge spot for the home team as they’ve lost three in a row to SLU, who is just 1-10 ATS its L11 road games vs. teams that have winning home records. 8* Richmond

7* Southampton (3:00 ET): While I don’t see Southampton as anything more than a mid-table side in the Premier League, they’ve been in good form of late and are matched up with the bottom side, Norwich City, on Friday. This should lead to an easy three points for the home side. The Saints have lost just once in their last 11 competitions overall and only one time at home all season. Seven draws here at home have hurt them a bit, but look for them to get the full three here in a favorable Friday fixture. 

Norwich City had moved out of the Premier League basement by picking up seven points from three matches, including wins over Everton and Watford. But after back to back losses where they conceded seven goals (to Manchester City and Liverpool), the Canaries are back at the foot of the table with just 17 points on the season. Not to sound overly harsh, but that is where they belong given their extremely poor -36 GD, easily the worst in the EPL this season. They are also dead last in the league in xPts. 

Not since 2012-14 has Norwich been able to remain in the English top flight back to back years. So history is not on their side when it comes to relegation. Right now, I’d say the Canaries are the most likely EPL team to be relegated back to the Championship for next season. It’s been pretty ugly on their travels as they’ve been outscored by 21 goals in 12 matches and have the lowest xPts on the road in the league. Southampton can move past Brighton into ninth place with a win here and I think they’ll do just that. 7* Southampton

8* Oregon State (11:00 ET): USC was very lucky to escape with a 62-60 win Sunday night against Washington State. Thankfully, I had Wazzu plus the points, so it was a winning bet for me. USC won the game on a last second shot after trailing most of the way. They were down six with just over five minutes to go and scored the game’s final five points. Curiously, Washington State was 5 of 32 from TWO-point range in the game and could not take full advantage of 16 offensive rebounds. It was a very odd box score and again, USC was lucky to walk away the victor. 

At 23-4, this is USC’s best start to a season since 1974. I maintain that the Trojans are slightly overrated and just barely a Top 25 team. They have been rather fortunate to go 7-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. Laying double digits here, on the road, seems like a good time to fade. The Trojans have covered just two of their last eight games. One was as a 10.5 point dog at Arizona (they lost the game straight up) while the other was as a two-point dog (beat UCLA by three). The last time this team covered as a favorite was January 24th. 

Meanwhile, it has been an incredible free fall for Oregon State, who was in the Elite Eight last year and now is 3-22 straight up. I recall playing against them (successfully) in the very first game of the season. The Beavers have not won since 12/31 and have one of the worst ATS records in the country at 6-18-1. However, I think this is a good value on them in Corvallis. Every SU win this year has come at home and earlier in the year, they stayed within 10 of USC on the road (despite being -12 in FT attempts). Hold your nose and take the points here. USC is overrated. 8* Oregon State

10* Belmont (9:00 ET): Well, here we go. It’s second-place Belmont (14-2 in OVC, 24-5 overall) taking on first place Murray State (16-0, 26-2) in perhaps the marquee “mid-major” game of this College Basketball season. As you can see from the spread, oddsmakers believe these teams are pretty evenly ranked, much more so than the pollsters, who have Murray State as the #19 team in America and Belmont barely drawing any votes. My view is that Murray State has been a great story this year, but they are NOT one of the Top 20 teams in America. In fact, my own power ratings don’t even have them in the top 50! 

So it’s probably time for the Racers to be knocked down a peg. They’ve had two “close calls” recently, needing to come from behind in the second half against both Morehead State and UT Martin. Now both those games were on the road. At home, just like in conference play, Murray State is undefeated this season. But it’s probably worth mentioning that they were six-point underdogs in the first meeting with Belmont. The fact they won 82-60 and have gone on such a tear has obviously caused a dramatic shift in the market for this rematch. But, now being ranked, it feels that the Racers are overvalued. 

Belmont shot horribly in that first meeting, particularly from behind the arc where they finished 5 of 23. They had beaten Murray State four straight times before that loss, however. The Bruins enter tonight’s rematch on a 10-game win streak and four of those wins have been by 20 or more. Tonight is just the fourth time all season that Belmont has been an underdog. They very much have been overshadowed by Murray State’s success this year, but really they are pretty even with the Racers and a legit threat not just to win tonight, but to also “steal” the OVC’s automatic bid in the conference tournament. Take the points. 10* Belmont

10* Atlanta (8:10 ET): Chicago entered the All-Star Break tied with Miami for the best record in the Eastern Conference. However, there are certain metrics (point differential, net efficiency) that suggest the Bulls are a little lucky to be in the position they currently find themselves in. I’ve got them rated fifth among the Eastern Conference contenders, which obviously suggests a drop here in the second half of the season. Thus, I’ll be fading them coming out the break tonight as they are laying points. 

Atlanta got off to a VERY slow start this season, but has clawed its way into 10th place in the East and that would give them a shot in the play-in round. I don’t think the Hawks can necessarily finish any better than 8th, but they should have a better second half to the season than they did the first half. The team averaged 127 points in a pair of wins before the break and I think they should put up some points here as Chicago has not been the same defensively since losing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso to injury. 

The Bulls are on a five-game win streak coming out of the break, but the Hawks have won 11 of their last 16. All eyes are on DeMar DeRozan, who is the first Chicago player to score 30+ points in eight straight games since Michael Jordan. But Atlanta’s Trae Young is averaging 29.2 PPG his last nine games as well. Remember that the Hawks were in the Eastern Conference finals last season. They remember losing a pair of games to Chicago right after X-Mas and I think will be out for revenge. Take the points. 10* Atlanta

9* St. Thomas MN (8:00 ET): This would be my first ever play on St. Thomas, a D-I newbie for the 2021-22 season that is competing in the Summit League. The Tommies are simply looking to avoid the basement of the conference standings and with two games to go, I like their chances. They have two favorable matchups, both at home, and are now up a game on last place North Dakota, whom they just defeated 84-74 (as a 1-point road dog) 48 hours ago. Now the Tommies look to avenge a one-point loss they suffered back in December. 

They are facing Denver, who historically struggles on the road and this season has been no different in that regard. The Pioneers are 2-12 SU in “true” road games, last winning one against aforementioned North Dakota back on ⅔. That’s Denver’s only win over its L7 games as they’ve dropped four in a row, most recently a three-point decision at Omaha seven days ago. That game saw them blow an eight-point lead in the final two minutes and lose at the buzzer. 

The first meeting between these teams saw Denver shoot the ball ridiculously well at 58.7% overall. But of course that was at home where they play much better. St. Thomas had a 15-point halftime advantage in that first meeting, something that I’m sure the players remember and they’ll be looking to avenge that memory. Also, the Tommies haven’t won at home since New Year’s Day, something they’ll be looking to change. After failing to cover 11 in a row, they’ve covered back to back games. Lay the short number. 9* St. Thomas MN

8* Western Illinois (7:00 ET): It may seem a bit strange to see a team like Western Illinois laying double digits, but you have to consider just how BAD Omaha has been all season long. The fact that the visitors come into this Thursday night Summit League clash off a rare win makes them an even stronger fade, at least in my estimation. Then there’s the matter of this being a revenge game for Western Illinois, who dropped the first meeting (as 13-point road favorites) back in December. You’re going to want to lay the points here. 

Omaha is 5-22 SU this season, but like I said, they did win their last game. It was a 72-69 win - as 2-point home underdogs - over Denver exactly one week ago. Incredibly, the Mavericks were able to come back from an eight-point deficit in the final two minutes with Frankie Fidler scoring all 11 points, including the game-winning three at the buzzer. Do not expect that kind of magic to repeat itself on the road where Omaha has yet to win this season (0-13) and is being outscored by 24.2 PPG. 

Western Illinois is on a five-game ATS losing streak, so we’re getting a great value on them here. The Leathernecks were actually 13-point favorites ON THE ROAD in the first meeting with Omaha, a game where they shot horribly (32.4%), especially from three-point range (7 of 37). I really love the revenge angle here, plus the fact we’re getting to play against Omaha off a win. Western Illinois is a high-scoring team (78.8 PPG) and plays much better defense at home. They’ll shoot a lot better tonight than they did in that first matchup with the Mavericks. 8* Western Illinois

10* Arsenal (2:45 ET): This is a crucial top seven clash in the Premier League with both sides fancying themselves as having a shot to finish fourth. Right now, I give Arsenal the better shot as the Gunners have THREE matches in hand compared to Manchester United, who is currently fourth and just four points ahead. If Arsenal can simply pick up points in these matches they have left to make up, then I’d say they have an excellent shot at being back in the Champions League for the first time in six years. 

Wolverhampton is two points back of Arsenal and six adrift of Man U. The Wolves are coming off B2B wins, 2-0 over Tottenham and 2-1 over Leicester, but lost to Arsenal at Molineux earlier in the month. What was interesting about that clash is that Arsenal was down to 10 men for the final 20+ minutes and still held on for a 1-0 victory. Also, I thought the Wolves were a bit fortunate to defeat Leicester on Sunday as they lost both the possession and xG (expected goal) battle. 

Arsenal has also now won two straight after defeating Brentford 2-1 on Saturday. They were definitely the better side there, only conceding in stoppage time after dominating in shots 24-6. In terms of xPts (expected points) this season, there is a larger gap between these two sides than the current table seems to suggest. The bottom line is I simply think Arsenal is significantly better. The Wolves have been a little fortunate to concede only 18 goals this season as their xGA is 30.62. The gap between actual and expected goals allowed is the largest in the Premier League. 10* Arsenal

8* LSU (9:00 ET): The Tigers have fallen out of both polls, but are still considered top 18 by both KenPom and my ratings. There are six SEC teams that I feel belong amongst the Top 20 in the country (it’s a very strong league this year) and this is definitely one of them. LSU is #3 in the country in defensive efficiency, which will serve them well come March and in this critical matchup Wednesday night at Kentucky. Already this season, the Tigers have beaten the Wildcats, 65-60 as a two-point FAVORITE down in Baton Rouge. 

Because of the revenge angle, this number is inflated. It should be pointed out that Kentucky has struggled in B2B games, first losing by 13 at Tennessee and then falling behind by that same margin against Alabama, before rallying for a win on Saturday. There is no denying the fact that John Calipari has himself a team that can cut down the nets this year. But given the recent form, I can’t see the Wildcats covering this spread tonight. LSU, who is off a loss, is going to be the more motivated side even though they won the first head to head matchup. 

It was a 77-75 loss at South Carolina on Saturday for LSU. That dropped them to 7-7 SU in SEC play, very much in the middle of the pack, which is not at all indicative of how they stack up against the rest of the league. The Tigers led South Carolina by as many as 11 in the second half before wilting late. This will be just the fifth time getting points all season. Kentucky is short-handed right now and all five starters played 35+ minutes on Saturday. Grab the points. 8* LSU

10* Minnesota (9:00 ET): #13 Wisconsin has been extremely lucky in close games this season as they are 12-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. They have the #7 luck rating at KenPom, who has them at #25 overall. My own power ratings have them a bit lower (#31). Clearly, unless you’re from Madison, you can’t possibly think that the Badgers are the 13th best team in the country. I think that they are only the SEVENTH best team in the Big 10 and consider they were recently a short dog at Indiana, who is NOT one of the six Big 10 teams I have ahead of Wisconsin in my power ratings.

Nor is Minnesota one of the top six. But the Golden Gophers are coming off a win, 77-60 over Northwestern as 4.5-point home dogs. It speaks volumes that Wisconsin is basically getting the same amount of respect here than N’western did. Minnesota has won its last two home games, also defeating Penn State 76-70 (as a one-point favorite) back on 2/12. Earlier in the season, the Gophers covered the number at Madison, losing only 66-60 as an 11.5-point dog. The game was tied with 2:23 remaining 

Remember that this is Wisconsin’s first game after the fracas against Michigan on Sunday. HC Greg Gard was not suspended, but fined and the aftermath could very well be a distraction for the Badgers heading into this one. The Badgers only shoot 31% from behind the three-point line, which is second to last in the Big 10. They instead live at the free throw line and rely on not turning the ball over. Given how their season has played out, I don’t think it’s a sustainable blueprint. Take the points here as I believe an outright upset is likely. 10* Minnesota

8* Loyola Chicago (8:00 ET): I “smell” blowout in this one as the best and worst teams in the Missouri Valley match up on Wednesday. Loyola Chicago has stumbled a bit recently, going just 5-3 SU in its last eight games, but that may be a byproduct of having gotten off to such a strong start in conference play. Now the Ramblers find themselves in a first place tie with Northern Iowa, who they’ll face in the regular season finale on Saturday. I don’t see any “fooling around” tonight as Loyola can clinch at least a share of the MVC regular season crown with a win here. 

Evansville is at the opposite end of the spectrum, in last place in the conference. The Purple Aces are just 6-21 SU overall and 2-14 in conference play. It is a virtual guarantee at this point that they will be seeded last in the conference tourney. Five straight losses, including 74-69 at Valpo on Monday, have really dampened spirits and I just can’t see how the Evansville players come into this one with any sense of motivation, knowing that a blowout loss is quite likely. 

Meanwhile, it’s the final home game for the Loyola seniors, so they’ll be even more fired up. This is a team that shoots 37.8% from three-point range with Williamson and Norris both over 41%. When they faced Evansville last month, it turned into a bloodbath with the Ramblers making 62.8% of their FG attempts and going 10 of 17 from behind the arc. The final score was 77-48. Following an atypical poor shooting effort Monday at Illinois State (still won 59-50), I expect Loyola to get hot here and never let up. 8* Loyola Chicago

8* Xavier (7:00 ET): Providence’s incredible run of luck is bordering on being downright preposterous at this point. They just came back from 19 down (in the second half!) to stun Butler in overtime this past weekend. That was the Friars’ second OT win in the last three games (sandwiched around a loss to Villanova) and five of their last six wins have been by four points or less. For the season, they are 10-1 SU in games decided by five or less. At 22-3 SU and leading the Big East Conference, Providence obviously deserves to be ranked. But to think that they are a Top 10 team is insanity. My own power ratings have them at #45 in the country and say they are just the sixth best team in the Big East! That’s right in line with what KenPom says. 

Xavier will try and knock off the Friars here. This is a revenge game for the Musketeers as they lost the season’s first meeting 65-62 on a last second three-pointer. Xavier was ranked, but has dropped four of its last five coming into tonight. Two of those losses were by four points or less. Saturday saw them lose at UConn, who is the second best team in the Big East.

Xavier did not shoot the ball well at UConn, making only 38.3% overall and 29.4% from three-point range. Yet HC Travis Steele seemed to think it was a case of his team simply missing open looks. I look for the shots to fall tonight for the Musketeers. Providence has failed to cover three in a row and due to drop a game before the end of the regular season. No team in America has been luckier this year than the Friars. Xavier actually has the better YTD point differential! Take the points. 8* Xavier

8* North Alabama (7:00 ET): Here’s a matchup most normally wouldn’t think of playing, but my power rankings say there’s tremendous value on the home side, who “should” be laying double digits! North Alabama’s ATS record of 8-14-1 obviously leaves a lot to be desired, but Central Arkansas is not a good team at all and has just two road wins all season. It would seem as if we’re getting a really solid value here as North Alabama was a 3.5-point road favorite the first time these teams played. 

Now the Lions lost that first meeting 89-88 after blowing a 10-point halftime lead. They led by seven with under a minute to go in regulation! But somehow they let Central Arkansas make four baskets in the final 50 seconds to force overtime. It’s been “that kind of year” for North Alabama, who now finds itself in last place in the ASun West Division with a 2-12 SU record in conference play. They’ve lost six in a row, however four of those losses were by six points or less and the last two were by a total of seven points. 

It still may feel “risky” to lay points with a team like that, but I assure you that Central Arkansas is very bad. They are my lowest rated team in the entire Atlantic Sun, so it’s a bit shocking to see them with a 6-8 SU conference record. The oddsmakers have not had them favored in a single game this season! It was a 19-point loss that the Bears suffered on Monday (to Liberty). Meanwhile, North Alabama hasn’t played since Saturday, so the schedule sets up nicely for the home team in this one. 8* North Alabama

10* Ajax Amsterdam (3:00 ET): One of three sides not to drop a single point in the Group stage (Liverpool and Bayern Munich were the others), Ajax Amsterdam comes into the knockout round with the best odds of anyone not hailing from one of Europe’s “Big 5” leagues. They went a perfect 6-0 in Group C, sweeping Sporting CP, Borussia Dortmund and Besiktas by an aggregate score of 20-5. That was the best GD of anyone in the draw, save for Bayern. On the domestic front, Ajax has continued to dominate the Eredivisie with a league-best 57 points and easily the best GD (+65).

Benfica was not expected to make it out of Group E, but the Portugese side were the ones to take advantage of Barcelona underperforming and they nabbed second place. This despite a -2 goal differential in the six matches. It was head to head that allowed them to progress to the knockout stage where they are underdogs in this first leg, despite having home field advantage. 

Ajax are worthy favorites in this tie and quite frankly I am surprised they are not a larger favorite. This is a side that scored more goals in the Group stage than everyone with the exception of Bayern. Before this weekend’s 1-0 win over Willem II, Ajax had scored multiple goals in seven straight league games. That’s going to be a problem for a Benfica side who generated only seven goals in the group stage and was dominated twice by Bayern, getting outscored 9-2. Ajax plays a similar style to Bayern and has also won 10 straight, conceding just one goal in the process. Benfica is only third in their own league and greatly overmatched here. 10* Ajax Amsterdam

9* Crystal Palace (2:30 ET): I believe this is an excellent opportunity to fire on Crystal Palace, despite their recent form. The Eagles have not won in the Premier League since a 3-0 victory over Norwich City back on December 28th. The six-match winless run has them down in 13th in the table, however they still remain an impressive 7th in xPts among all EPL sides, which is well ahead of Wednesday’s opponent, relegation threatened Watford. Having underachieved so drastically, expect CP to pick up the full three points in this one as they are long overdue for the elusive victory.

On Saturday, it appeared as if the Eagles were headed for a third consecutive draw as they and Chelsea were both scoreless with only stoppage time on the horizon. But a goal in the 89th minute sent CP to a crushing defeat against one of the top three Premier League sides. Here, it’s an obvious drop in class as Watford is still 18th in the table (in the relegation zone) even after a 1-0 win over Aston Villa on Saturday. That was the Hornets’ first EPL win since November and they remain in a lot of trouble considering 19th place Burnley is just one point behind with two matches in hand. As of right now, I do project that Watford will be heading back to the second tier of English football next season.

As for Crystal Palace, I feel that a top 10 finish is still a possibility. They’ve got a pair of bottom three sides on the horizon this week and taking max points would move them to the middle of the table. This is a revenge spot as earlier in the season, the Eagles fell 1-0 here at Vicarage Round in the EFL Cup. But consider Watford has the worst home record in the Premier League with just seven points from 12 matches and they’ve lost six straight times here, failing to score in each of the last three. I love the value we’re getting here, going against Watford off a rare win. 9* Crystal Palace

10* Alabama (9:00 ET): I’m not ready to “give up” on the Crimson Tide just yet, who definitely deserved to stay ranked following Saturday’s tough 90-81 loss at Kentucky. The Tide led that game by 13 in the 1st half, so they were incredibly unfortunate to leave Lexington without at least an ATS win. The loss dropped them into a four-way tie for fifth in the SEC and three full games back of the top four. I believe Bama is a lot closer to those top four teams than they are the rest of the conference pack. Laying just a short number at Vandy on Tuesday, this is a spot where you’ll want to be on Nate Oats’ team. 

Like I mentioned earlier, Bama is still ranked, albeit barely at #25. Both my own personal power ratings and the KenPom ratings have them at #20. I will readily admit that the Crimson Tide have NOT been a good bet in conference play as they are just 2-11 ATS vs. the rest of the SEC this season. But this is an opportunity for them to go on the road and make a statement against a Vandy team that just isn’t anywhere near the same class as Bama, despite being only a game behind in the standings. Among SEC teams, I have the Commodores rated 10th and outside the top 80 in the country. 

The Commies did pick up a win on Saturday, beating Texas A&M 72-67. That was a game where both teams shot very poorly from three-point range, but where Vandy got really lucky was that A&M starters combined for just EIGHT total points in the 1H. I’ve mentioned this with Bama before, but despite very poor three-point shooting this season, they are still averaging more than 80 PPG. Defensively, the game vs. Kentucky exposed some of the issues, but Vanderbilt is not Kentucky. I look for Oats’ team to make a statement tonight that they belong in the Top 25. 10* Alabama

8* Richmond (7:00 ET): Richmond flat out got embarrassed on Friday, losing by 20 at VCU. That was a damaging loss for the Spiders, who are now sixth in the Atlantic 10 standings and four games off the pace of first place Davidson. Coming off a result like that, many are likely to be a bit “gun-shy” about laying the points on the road here, but I’ll note that Richmond was actually even at the half with VCU and this number really speaks volumes about the gap between the top six in the A-10 and everyone else. 

George Washington is actually the seventh place team in the A-10 right now with a 7-6 SU conference record. The Colonials have had themselves a profitable last month or so, going 8-1 ATS their last nine games. But they’ve mainly been beating up on the bottom of the conference, defeating teams such as Fordham, LaSalle, Duquesne and Rhode Island (twice). It’s interesting that all three SU losses in those L9 games came against teams in the top six of the A-10, two of them by double digits (13 at St. Louis and 26 at Dayton).

Prior to things going awry in the 2H at VCU, Richmond had finally been feeling pretty good about itself. They went into Friday having won seven of nine, the two losses coming by a total of five points. I think the Spiders are better than their record and should hit “paydirt” here. The goal down the stretch is getting a top four seed (double bye) for the conference tournament and that is still very attainable. GW was picked to finish 13th this year in the A-10, so they’ve overachieved as of late. Lay the points. 8* Richmond

10* Seattle U (10:00 ET): With the benefit of hindsight, I’m going to look back and realize I faded New Mexico State “a game too soon.” Saturday did not go well for me when I took Grand Canyon as my *10* WAC Game of the Month as they were beaten soundly at home by NMSU, 82-66 (line was GCU -2.5). I thought my reasoning was sound (obviously) as Grand Canyon came into that game at 12-1 SU at home. But it was “not to be” as NMSU came in and outclassed them from the jump, 

But the beauty of this is being able to learn from your mistakes and taking advantage of another opportunity. Such is the case here as I just don’t think NMSU is going to be able to win a second straight difficult road game. This time the opponent is Seattle, whom the Aggies are tied with for first place in the conference (both 12-2 SU). Seattle comes in riding a four-game win streak and is looking to avenge one of its two conference losses as they fell 79-64 as eight-point pups in Las Cruces back on February 5th. That was the last time that the Redhawks lost a game. 

It was a rough shooting night for Seattle back on the 5th as they connected on only 31.9% of their total FG attempts and were 6 of 32 from three-point range. Saturday saw more poor shooting as Seattle sunk just 31.4% of its FG attempts, but this time they were able to still win, 67-64 over Cal Baptist here at home. Fortunately, they were able to dominate in second chance points and took 23 more FG attempts. Should be noted the game before saw Seattle score 102. They average 78.1 PPG for the season at home, where they are 12-1 SU. 10* Seattle U

8* The Citadel (8:00 ET): Samford has been one of the luckiest teams in the country this season, posting the #4 luck rating over at KenPom and posting nine wins by six points or less. Much of that good fortune has come recently as the last four wins have all been by six or less and the Bulldogs have won seven of eight overall. It should also be noted that two of their last four wins have required overtime. The one loss in the last eight games came against the team that they face on Monday and I believe the line for the rematch is inflated. Take the points here. 

It was on February 5th that The Citadel defeated Samford 107-93 as 1-point home underdogs. No, there was no overtime in that game, a battle of “Bulldogs” if you will. Samford scored a season high 53 points in the first half, but that wasn’t enough as The Citadel scored 100+ points in a game for the fourth time this season and got season-highs in points from both Hayden Brown (35) and Jason Roche (29). 

Samford played much better defense on Saturday, holding UNC Greensboro to 49 points on 28.3% shooting. The expectation here will be for revenge, but like I said earlier, the line looks inflated. Plus, you have to factor in just how fortunate Samford has been all season, especially as of late. The Citadel have been held well below their season average of 78.0 points in B2B games and you have to figure another offensive explosion is forthcoming. Prior to winning seven of their last eight, Samford had lost six of seven, so they are inconsistent. It’s not often they are asked to lay this many points, so take advantage. 8* The Citadel

8* Celta Vigo (3:00 ET): Facing serious threat of relegation, Levante is probably the more “desperate” side in Monday’s La Liga fixture. But I simply cannot trust the side at the foot of the table to earn points back to back times. This is a rough spot for the Frogs, who have finished 15th, 15th, 12th and 14th in their four years back in the Spanish top flight. They are off a shocking 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid on Wednesday and are now traveling on short rest, with another fixture (Elche) looming on Friday. 

The best Celta Vigo can probably hope for at this point is a second straight top half finish. But the Sky Blues are definitely in excellent form right now, bringing a four match unbeaten run into Monday. They have not conceded a single goal in three of those four fixtures. Now a missed late penalty cost them last week in what ended up being a goalless draw with Cadiz. But I just can’t see Celta allowing a second straight opportunity to grab max points pass them by. In the reverse back in September, they beat Levante 2-0. 

While Levante certainly has been a bit unfortunate in conceding a La Liga worst 50 goals this campaign, Celta has only conceded half that number and ranks top five in the league in GA. So they have a massive edge in that department. The Sky Blues have actually picked up more points on the road this season than here at home, but this is the last place team they are welcoming in on Monday. Celta has a substantial rest edge having not been on the pitch since 2/12. 8* Celta Vigo

10* Bologna (3:00 ET): Recent form certainly does not favor Bologna, who have won just one of their last nine Serie A fixtures. Since December, no team in the league has lost more times. And Bologna has failed to score in B2B matches, losing 3-0 to Lazio and playing to a goalless draw with Empoli. Going back further, they have found the back of the net just twice in the last five matches. But never before in club history have Monday’s hosts gone three straight league fixtures without a goal. I’ll call for them to end their scoreless streak on Monday and pick up the full three points. 

Only two points currently separate Bologna and Monday’s opponent, Spezia. But the former has the better YTD goal differential (-11 vs. -19) and the latter, in my opinion, belongs closer to the bottom of the table. Spezia is coming off a very tough 2-1 loss to Fiorentina last month, a result that I was very happy to see (I had Fiorentina). But for Spezia, giving up a late go-ahead goal (89th minute) had to be a killer after Kevin Agudelo’s equalizer in the 74th minute.

That was actually Spezia’s first loss since December, but the unbeaten run up until last week has only gotten them to 14th in the table and like I said earlier, their resume is one that deserves to be closer to the drop zone (they are third lowest in the league in xPts). Spezia has scored in eight straight matches, a first, so don’t be surprised if that ends at the same time Bologna’s scoreless run ends. They’ve also got some injuries and suspension to deal with in the Starting XI. 10* Bologna

10* Washington State (7:30 ET): Back on Thursday, I faded USC. It was a little bit of a lucky cover by Washington, who trailed by 17 at halftime and was down by as many as 23 in the second half. But I’ll take it. The reason I faded the Trojans in that spot was two-fold. One, they were coming off an upset win over rival UCLA. Two, I happen to think they’re overrated. While no longer off a big win, Southern Cal being overrated (at #17 in the country) still rings true, so I’m gonna grab the points for the second straight time and go against them. 

With apologies to Bill Walton, the Pac 12 is not a particularly deep league this season. Right now, I don’t see more than three teams making the Big Dance. USC is on the right side of the bubble. But the fourth best team in the league, according to my power ratings, is Washington State and the gap between them and the Trojans is not that large. The Cougars have been one of the unluckier teams in the country this season, at least per KenPom, and that’s backed up by their 1-8 SU record in games decided by five points or less. 

I think it’s time for Wazzu to show that it’s better than its record (14-11 SU). Yes, they’ve dropped four in a row. But two of those losses were by a total of six points and the other two were against Arizona and UCLA, who are the class of the conference. The Cougs shot a season-low 28.3% against UCLA on Thursday and will be a lot better offensively tonight. It was a two-point loss when they faced USC back in December. I believe there’s a very good chance of an outright upset here. 10* Washington State

8* San Jose State (4:00 ET): San Jose State has not won a game since January 8th and that was against Bethesda (CA), a non-DI team. So why would I be taking them? Well, I believe they are catching New Mexico in a flat spot. Over the last six days, the Lobos have faced Wyoming and Colorado State, two of the top teams in the Mountain West. Both games were at home. They pulled the upset over Wyoming, but were not nearly as fortunate against Colorado State. The Lobos’ road resume leaves a lot to be desired as they are just 2-8 SU this season outside of Albuquerque and giving up 82.6 PPG. 

Furthermore, New Mexico has not played a road game since Feb 5 when it downed Air Force 91-77.  That is their only win outside the state of New Mexico all season. The other road win came on 11/30, against New Mexico State, 101-94. The Lobos are just 1-5  ATS their last six trips here to San Jose. This will be just the second time all year they’ve been a road favorite and first time laying more than one point. 

In the season’s first meeting, New Mexico won 86-70, but it’s difficult for me to see them holding the Spartans to 22.2% shooting from three-point range again. Defense has been a major issue for the Lobos. They just gave up 40+ points in both halves vs. Colorado State. Them laying this many points away from home just seems like a bad idea. San Jose State is not going to want to go winless in conference play for an entire regular season. This is their best shot at a win the rest of the way. Take the points. 8* San Jose State

7* RB Leipzig (1:30 ET): There is now a tremendous amount of pressure on Leipzig to stay hot and pick up the full three points here, following Saturday’s results in the Bundesliga. Hoffenheim, Freiburg and Cologne all won yesterday, moving themselves ahead of Leipzig in the race for the top four here in the German top flight. Mainz won on Friday, so they are level as well. But Leipzig is ahead of all of these sides in GD and xPts, in theory establishing them as the choice to get into the top four by season’s end. I expect them to handle one of the worst teams in the league on Sunday. 

Aside from an expected 3-2 loss to Bayern Munich two weeks ago, Leipzig has looked very good in 2022 on the domestic front. They’ve taken max points from the four fixtures besides Bayern, outscoring their opponents 11-2. I know that it’s been a struggle winning matches on the road this season for Leipzig, whose lone win on their travels was the 2-0 win over Stuttgart last month. But they are clearly the stronger side today. 

Hertha Berlin had 26 shots last week against Greuther Furth, but only seven were on target and they lost 2-1 to the last place side in the table. Looking at the bottom of the table and the race to stay above the relegation zone, I think Hertha could be in major trouble as they have the second worst GD in the Bundesliga (-21) and are currently just one point above the relegation playoff. They’ve conceded the second most goals this season and are winless across their last six competitions. 7* RB Leipzig

8* Michigan (1:00 ET): I’ve been “suspicious” about Wisconsin for some time now, not believing they are one of the top 25 teams in America. Give the Badgers credit though for going into Indiana earlier this week and picking up a 74-69 win. They were actually underdogs in that game, despite being the #14 team in the country facing a ranked opponent. Here, they are only a short home favorite and that’s for good reason as Michigan (who is also off a five-point road win) is rated higher in my power ratings. Take the points. 

The Wolverines are looking to make it back to back road wins here as they won at Iowa on Thursday, 84-79 as a five-point dog. That’s an impressive win as Iowa is a top 20 team in my power ratings and better than Wisconsin. But Juwan Howard’s team still enters Sunday firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble as they are among the “last four in.” At just 14-10 SU on the year, the Maize and Blue can’t afford too many more losses. They have matched up well with Wisconsin in the past, taking six of the previous eight meetings and sweeping the season series last year. 

The Badgers are among the luckiest teams in the country this season as they are now 12-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. The other key to their success has been committing the fewest number of turnovers per game in the entire country. But they are still just the EIGHTH highest rated Big 10 team in my power ratings, which speaks volumes. Michigan, who I believe is a fringe Top 25 team despite its record, has played a top four schedule and is top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency. 8* Michigan

8* Butler (1:00 ET): I just played against Butler, on Friday, and that went very well as the Bulldogs lost 91-57 at St. John’s. They shot only 34.5% from the field while letting the Red Storm hit a blistering 61.4%. But that was a road game and an atypical final margin when looking through recent Butler results. Prior to that ugly loss, six straight Butler games had been decided by six points or less with five decided by three or less. Last time they were at home, the Bulldogs upset Marquette. I believe they can do the same to what I believe is the most overrated team in America, Providence. 

The Friars got a “taste of their own medicine” back on Tuesday, losing a close one at home to Villanova 89-84. I say “taste of their own medicine” because this team had gone a ridiculous 9-0 SU in games decided by five points or less. Just to give you an idea on my outlook on the Friars, they are not even in the top 40 of my power rankings, despite a 21-3 overall SU record and leading the Big East. I think that after suffering a high-profile loss, they are ripe to be upset here. 

Things fell apart for Butler late in the first half against St. John’s. I expect the team to play much better here after being embarrassed. Bryce Nze did  return to the lineup Friday and played 25 minutes. So that’s a positive. The lingering question now is if Bo Hodges can return here. He’s listed as questionable. With or without him, I expect the upset to be pulled as the Bulldogs were able to stay within seven of Providence (on the road) back on 1/22 despite going 5 of 20 from three-point range and 1 of 4 at the FT line. Take the points. 8* Butler

10* Barcelona (10:15 AM ET): So the race for the top four in La Liga was definitely heated up by the results on Saturday. Both Villarreal and Atletico Madrid won, so there are now five sides separated by just five points in the race for the Champions/Europa League spots. Barcelona was jumped by both Villarreal and Atletico, but has a chance here to reclaim a top four spot, if it can defeat Valencia. Given that Valencia has not won a La Liga match since 12/20 and picked up just two points from its last six matches, I like Barca’s chances of getting the full three on Sunday.

Now it did take a last gasp equalizer (in the 96th minute) for Barca to share the points with Espanyol last time out. They also played to a 1-1 draw with Napoli in the first leg of Europa League action midweek. But I’m a believer that this team is heading for a top four finish. They are 4th in the league in xPts and unbeaten in their last eight matches (across all competitions), a run that goes all the way back to 12/12. During that time, Barca has won the xG battle in all but two fixtures.

Meanwhile, Valencia has a -6.2 xG difference during its winless run. Last week saw them lose 2-1 to Alaves, who is second from the bottom in the table. Right now, the Bats’ main focus is likely on the Copa del Rey, where they are in the semifinals. Meanwhile, yesterday’s results definitely put added pressure on Barcelona to win here. I think they get the job done, just as they did in the reverse fixture, which they won 3-1 at Camp Nou. 10* Barcelona

10* UCSB (10:00 ET): This line should tell you “all you need to know.” Long Beach State, who is in first place in the Big West and on an 11-0 SU/ATS run, is an underdog to UCSB, who is buried in the middle of the conference pack. What gives? Long Beach State has been among the luckiest teams in the country this season while UCSB has been THE unluckiest. This per the KenPom ratings. The Gauchos are my second highest rated team in the Big West (behind UC Irvine, NOT LBSU) and deserved favorites here. 

Long Beach State will be playing its third straight road game and second in three nights here. So they are ripe to be blown out. It’s an incredible run that the Beach has been on when you consider they’ve been the underdog in six of the 11 straight games that they have won, including five of the last eight. They were 4.5-point underdogs when they hosted UCSB earlier in the season. That wound up being a 65-58 final as UCSB played a terrible second half, scoring only 24 points. They finished that game 3 of 15 from three-point range. Expect better tonight. 

UCSB actually led that first meeting by eight at halftime. Another difference was while LBSU was 17 of 17 from the FT line, UCSB was only 9 of 15. These teams have pretty similar FT shooting numbers for the season, so that disparity won’t repeat itself. The Gauchos are holding visiting teams to just 38.1% shooting when here at home (allow only 59.6 PPG). This team is simply much better than its record and tonight is the time they’ll prove that. 10* UCSB

10* Over Walker/Hill (8:50 ET): For those less familiar with UFC betting, this is a wager on the # of rounds the fight will go and I’m taking the Over 1.5. That means the fight must make it past the halfway mark of the second round. This is the main event of the evening, pitting two Light Heavyweights, Johnny Walker (18-6 overall, 4-3 in the UFC) against Jamahal Hill (9-1, 3-1). 

I realize that Walker has a number of first round finishes in his career, but two of his last three fights have gone all the way to the scorecards. That includes his last one, a unanimous decision loss to Thiago Santos. That was a five-round fight, just like this one is. Walker was also beaten by unanimous decision back in March of 2020 by Nikita Krylov. He has a bit of a wild fighting style, but after sustaining two injuries over the last couple of years, you’ve got to wonder how much of the explosiveness is left.

Hill did not spend much time in the cage during 2021 as both fights were over before the end of the first round. He suffered his only career loss in June of last year when he was TKO’d by Paul Craig. But then Hill came back and KO’d Jimmy Crute just 48 seconds into their fight in December. Those results are probably why this O/U is set so low, however something to note is that Hill had only two of his first eight fights end in the first round. With this being the main event, look for a bit of a “feeling out process” and this one to go longer than the oddsmakers are expecting. 10* Over Walker/Hill

9* Grand Canyon (8:00 ET): It’s a pretty tight race atop the WAC, which is a better league than you may think. I’ve got New Mexico State and Grand Canyon rated as the top two teams, but for the latter, this game is far more important as they are actually tied for fourth in the standings with a 9-4 SU conference record. Tonight is a revenge spot as the Antelopes lost to NMSU 71-61 late last month. But laying just a small number at home, where GCU is 12-1 SU and 7-4 ATS this season, is a great value. 

For starters, Grand Canyon shot very poorly in that first meeting with New Mexico State. Not only did they finish at just 29.5% overall for the game, but they were a horrendous 5 of 32 from three-point range. Expect an obvious improvement in shooting here at home where their three-point percentage for the season is hovering near 40%. It’s actually a pretty raucous crowd that GCU plays in front of at home and they’ve rewarded fans by outscoring opponents by 19.3 PPG here this season. Also, don’t discount the defense, which limits teams to 38.4% shooting (that’s all games). 

New Mexico State is typically the standard-bearer in this conference and sure enough they are currently in first with an 11-2 record. But I think the Aggies have been a bit lucky this season as they are 5-1 SU in games decided by six or less. I’ll definitely be looking to fade them down the stretch. Their last time on the road resulted in a loss to Utah Valley State as a three-point favorite. This game is absolutely crucial to Grand Canyon’s chances of getting a top two seed in the WAC Tournament (and a double bye). I love this spot for them. 9* Grand Canyon

8* Florida State (6:00 ET): Duke, who is the only ranked team in the ACC right now (#9), probably feels pretty good about its chances of being alone in first place by the end of Saturday. Notre Dame, who they are tied with, is a six-point underdog at Wake Forest earlier in the day. Here, the Blue Devils are big double digit favorites, at home. But I think it’s a good time to step in and fade as Florida State is certainly about due to cover the spread. The Seminoles are a shocking 0-7 ATS their L7 games entering tonight. 

At least FSU was able to get back into the win column earlier this week, albeit by the slimmest of possible margins. They beat Clemson 81-80, which snapped a six-game SU skid. Unfortunately for ‘Noles backers, they were laying 1.5. The big issue for this team right now is injuries as three starters have gone down since FSU upset Duke 79-78 as five-point underdogs in Tallahassee back on January 18th. But the Noles are still competing. Only the loss to North Carolina last Saturday exceeds tonight’s spread. 

Duke is also off a last second win, 76-74 over Wake Forest, where they played without Coach K on the bench for the second half. The Hall of Famer had to leave due to illness and his status (for coaching today’s game) remains up in the air. That makes it difficult to prepare and with a three-game road trip upcoming (starting with another revenge spot, against Virginia), I’m not sure “all eyes” are on this game from the Duke perspective. FSU won the first meeting despite shooting only 35.6% overall and 7 of 25 from 3-point range. They won’t be blown out here. 8* Florida State

10* Everton +0.5 (10:00 AM ET): I’m taking Everton to get at least a point on Saturday. To be clear, with this bet, a draw is a win and so too (obviously) is an outright win. This is a huge fixture for the Toffees, who can move further away from the relegation zone in the Premier League. Currently, they are in 16th place with 22 points, which is only five clear for safety. They picked up a much needed 3-0 win over Leeds last week, their second victory in the last three fixtures. I see them building off that here. 

Southampton is certainly in the midst of a surge. The Saints have picked up points in three consecutive matches, despite facing the likes of Manchester City, Tottenham and Manchester United. They drew with the two teams from Manchester and won away 3-2 at Tottenham. But I feel now is as good a time as any to sell high on the team from St. Mary’s. I just don’t see them being able to crack into the top half of the table and their -7 YTD goal differential isn’t all that much better than Everton’s -10. 

Moreover, Southampton may have seven more points than Everton, but that’s partly due to having played two more times. In the reverse, way back in August, the Toffees prevailed 3-1. They very much dominated that day and were deserved winners. Following the January transfer window, this side has some needed reinforcements and is finally healthy again. Southampton, who has drawn seven times in 11 home matches (most in EPL), isn’t 100 percent healthy coming into Saturday. The Saints were lucky to share the points last week with Man U. The three sides below them in the table all have better GD. 10* Everton +0.5

10* Wolfsburg (9:30 AM ET): I’m taking Wolfsburg on the goal line, which means a draw is a no bet. Die Wolf has seemingly turned things around the L2 weeks, following a dreadful run of form that saw them go winless for 11 consecutive matches, including nine defeats. That had them dangerously close to the relegation zone, but now they’re back up to a more respectable 12th position in the table and only seven points off the top four (which is where they finished last season). A third straight win here would be gigantic. 

Now Hoffenheim is currently one of the four sides tied for fourth place in the Bundesliga with 34 points. I greatly prefer Leipzig in the race for the final Champions League spot, so don’t expect Die Kraichgauer to move past them. Like Wolfsburg, it had been a poor run of form recently with three consecutive losses for Hoffenheim before last week’s 2-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld. I find it very difficult to believe they can do any better than sharing the points here, given the poor defense that preceded last week’s victory. 

Last week was the first “clean sheet” for Hoffenheim since 11/20 vs. Leipzig. After opening 2022 with a 3-1 win over Augsburg (a bottom of the table side), Hoffenheim conceded at least two goals in four straight fixtures, all against teams in the top half of the table. So I expect Wolfsburg to get a goal or two here, continuing the offensive resurgence that has seen them find the back of the next six times over the L2 matches. Also, Die Wolf has revenge for a 3-1 loss in the reverse back in September. Again, no worse than a draw here for the home team. I like those odds. 10* Wolfsburg

8* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Earlier in the week, I faded Miss State. That proved to be a mistake as the Bulldogs just barely stayed within the number at Alabama, losing by only five. But they probably don’t care too much about that down in Starkville as the team is still on a four-game SU losing streak. All four of those losses came to teams that are currently ranked in the top 25 of my power ratings (Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU & Bama). The SEC is tough! But tonight’s opponent, Missouri, is anything but. This is a “get well” game for the home team.

Mizzou just got thrashed by Arkansas on Tuesday, losing by 19 points.That was the deficit at halftime, so the game was never really close. The big problem for the Tigers is that they lack a true point guard and opponents are taking advantage by forcing a lot of turnovers. They are 239th in the country in assist to turnover ratio and that’s played a big role in them sitting near the bottom of the SEC standings. Only Ole Miss and Georgia currently sit below. Two of the Tigers’ SEC wins have come against Ole Miss.

This will be the first of two meetings in three days between these teams. As hosts for the first one, I expect Miss State to come out “smelling blood in the water.” They led Alabama in the second half on Wednesday. That was after a second half rally fell short at LSU. The Bulldogs played Arkansas and Tennessee tough as well. Like I said earlier, this is a “get well” game and it’s against a Missouri team they’ve beaten four straight. 8* Mississippi State

10* Marist (7:00 ET): Marist is the better team here. Siena has been incredibly lucky this season with the second highest “luck rating” over at KenPom (trailing only Providence). The Saints’ good fortune has continued recently with three consecutive upset victories - over Fairfield, Iona (MAAC leader) and Rider. This run has them squarely in second in the conference (with a 9-4 SU record), but my own power ratings indicate this is anything but the second best team in the MAAC. It’s time for them to suffer a loss. 

Marist is also coming into Friday riding a three-game win streak. The Red Foxes have beaten Monmouth (83-58 on the road!), Canisius (71-70) and Niagara (77-70). The last two wins were at home, but Marist has more than held its own on the road this season. That includes a 5-0 ATS record when the total is 130 to 134.5. Tonight is also a revenge game for the Red Foxes, who lost at home to Siena, 67-60 as four-point favorites back on January 14th. They will be highly motivated for this one. 

Siena needed OT to get by Rider on Sunday in what was a revenge spot for them. The Saints scored 40 first-half points in that one, a season-high. I would not expect a repeat of that; after all this is a team that is averaging less than THIRTY points in the first half over the course of the season. They rank outside the top 300 in the country in offensive efficiency! Meanwhile, Marist has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country per KenPom (343rd in luck rating) and has gone 3-7 SU in games decided by six pts or less. It’s time for the luck to turn for these two teams! 10* Marist

8* St. John’s (5:00 ET): Butler has played nothing but close games recently with each of their six contests decided by six points or less. Five of them were decided by three points or less! The Bulldogs ended up going 3-3 SU in those six games as they are off B2B upset wins over Marquette and DePaul. But it’s tough for me to forecast a third consecutive upset win here as you’ve got to question what the team has “left in the tank” after such a rash of close contests. Also, Butler may still be without starters Hodges and Nze. 

St. John’s is off one of its most impressive wins of the season, beating Xavier 86-73 on the road as a 7.5-point dog. The Red Storm seem to have turned it around a bit after a rocky first half of the season. They’ve won three of five, the only losses coming to Villanova and UConn, who I have rated as the two best teams in the Big East. Leading scorer Julian Champagnie had 27 points in the win over Marquette on Wednesday and the team shot better than 50% for the seventh time this season. 

This is the second time Butler and St. John’s are meeting this month. The Johnnies won the first meeting, on the road, 75-72 despite shooting just 2 of 16 from three-point range. You’ve got to imagine they’ll shoot better than that here. Meanwhile, I don’t see Butler matching its 51.8% shooting from that game as they are averaging only 60.1 PPG on the road while shooting 40.1% overall and 29% from three-point range. This should be a double digit win for the home team. 8* St. John’s

8* Under Torino/Juventus (2:45 ET): Juve got a last-gasp equalizer on Sunday against Atalanta, thus keeping alive their unbeaten streak, which has now reached 11 across all competitions. Last week’s 1-1 draw also kept “The Old Lady” fourth in the Serie A table with a seven-point gap between them and the top three. Holding on to the last Champions League spot is going to be tough as you’ve got a number of other sides within striking distance. Friday’s fixture with 10th place Torino will not be easy. 

While Juve is in excellent form right now, Torino is coming off a series of unfortunate results as they’ve managed only one point from their last three fixtures. That was from a 1-1 draw with mid-table Sassuolo and since then there have been B2B defeats, 2-0 to Udinese and 2-1 to Venezia, the latter being quite disappointing. The Turin Derby has not been a favorable fixture for Torino in recent years as they last beat Juventus in April of ‘15. Away form hasn’t been good for Torino this year either; they’ve picked up just nine points (third fewest in Serie A) plus their last win here at Allianz Stadium was in the 1994-95 season. 

History is not on the side of the underdog, but I don’t like the spot for the favorite either as Juve may be looking ahead to next week’s Champions League tie with Villarreal. So the play here is going to be on the Under. Juve has conceded below 1.0 xGA in 11 of its last 12 Serie A matches and has conceded the third fewest number of goals in the league this season. Torino is no defensive slouch either as it has conceded the fourth fewest goals. When these sides met earlier in the season, it was a 1-0 match (won by Juve). 8* Under Torino/Juventus

8* Washington (11:30 ET): This is a good spot to fade USC, who I don’t think is the 17th best team in the country anyway. The Trojans are coming off a huge win last week, 67-64 over rival USC, and even with a few days off won’t be able to match the intensity from that game. As I already mentioned, the Trojans are a bit overrated as they aren’t in the top 25 of my own power ratings or at KenPom. 

The fact USC was able to beat UCLA, despite not having leading scorer (and rebounder) Isaiah Mobley was a minor miracle. Also, their second leading scorer Boogie Ellis did not have a single point! Mobley is expected back for this game, but may struggle in recovering from a concussion. I certainly can’t see Drew Peterson matching his career day that happened against the Bruins. It should be noted that USC has failed to cover each of the last four times its has been favored.

The final score (92-68) says Washington got rocked in its last game (by Arizona), but they actually led by 14 early in the game and that was without starting guard Daejon Davis. Davis, like Mobley for USC, is expected back tonight. Arizona is one of the best teams in the country, so there’s no shame in losing to them. Believe it or not, the Huskies are just a game behind UCLA in the conference standings entering tonight. Take the points. 8* Washington

8* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The 76ers were absolutely housed Tuesday night in Boston, losing 135-87 as a two-point underdog. You can bet they will be eager to wash away that embarrassment as they play their final game before the All-Star Break. Now it’s a tough one, in Milwaukee, on TNT. But the Bucks have failed to cover three in a row, losing two of the games straight up. They were blown out in Phoenix, then lost as 12-point favorites here at home to Portland, a real shocker. 

 The Bucks needed 50 from Giannis Antetokounmpo to down Indiana on Tuesday 128-119. While Giannis has seven 40+ point games already this season (already a career-high), the team cannot count on such a performance every night. The Bucks are just 7-15 ATS this season when facing a team that has a winning record. They are also 0-5 ATS when off three consecutive Overs. Both situations apply here.

As you’d expect, that loss to the Celtics saw Philly’s Joel Embiid turn in his lowest point total in quite some time. Embiid has been a beast this season and I expect a big game from him tonight. Yes, the Sixers are still without James Harden, but it’s still the same team that’s been in the top five of the East for most of the season. I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Sixers as Tuesday was the sixth worst loss in franchise history. They are not that bad and will show up here to compete. 8* Philadelphia

10* Charlotte (7:10 ET): The Hornets could really use a win going into the All-Star Break. They’ve lost eight of their last nine games overall including six straight at home. Few setbacks were more painful than what happened Tuesday night in Minnesota. Charlotte led that game the majority of the way, but allowed the T’wolves to tie it and force overtime. It ended up being a 126-120 loss for the Hornets. I don’t even want to get into what that did for my Under play (on 244). Anyway, I do expect the Hornets to come out pretty fired up tonight and cover the spread. Take the points. 

Charlotte is the highest scoring team in the NBA currently, averaging 113.8 points per game. So they’ve got that going for them. The problem is that they haven’t been scoring a ton recently. Only twice in the last six home games have they topped 101. But they did have 108 in regulation vs. Minnesota and before that scored 118 vs. Memphis and 141 vs, Detroit. Having just blown a 13-point 4Q lead in their last game, the Hornets should come out motivated tonight and I’m expecting them to hit their season average. 

Miami is off a 107-99 loss to Dallas on Tuesday, at home. Jimmy Butler, who led the team with 29 points in that game, may not be suiting up this evening. He’s questionable with a shoulder injury. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out again (knee). So this is a great opportunity for Charlotte and adding “fuel to the fire” is that they have double revenge for a pair of losses to the Heat earlier this season. 10* Charlotte

8* Austin Peay (7:00 ET): Murray State has worked its way into the rankings (#21) with a 21-2 SU overall record and 14-game win streak. The Racers are one of three teams in the country (South Dakota State and Gonzaga are the others) with zero conference losses. They are the top ranked mid-major obviously. Do I think Murray State is the 21st best team in the country? In a word, no. My own power ratings have them just outside the top 50. So now is probably as good a time as any to fade them, especially since we are getting such a big number here. 

Austin Peay is the opponent Thursday night. The Governors are not having the best season (10-14 SU overall) but do come into this game on a three-game win streak. They are 6-8 in conference play, but five of those losses have been to the top three teams (Murray St, Belmont, Morehead State) and two of the other three were by four points or less. The first game vs. Murray State, which was exactly two weeks ago, ended up as a 12-point loss at home but Austin Peay only trailed by four at the half. 

What I like about the situation here for AP is that Murray State is coming off a close call, a 57-53 win at Morehead State last Saturday, which saw them trail most of the way and shoot very poorly. The Racers didn’t take the lead until the final two minutes of that game. Again, with the number (ranking) attached to their name, they become overvalued by the public/oddsmakers alike. Austin Peay can play good defense and keep this one close. 8* Austin Peay

10* Towson (6:00 ET): OK, so this is probably the biggest game in the CAA so far this season. UNC Wilmington, who no one pegged to win this thing, has been in first place almost the entire way. I’ve gone through the Seahawks’ remarkable overachievement previously and will double back to it in a moment. Towson, who lost at home to UNCW earlier in the season, is just one back in the loss column (two in the win) entering tonight’s contest. The result is huge for the Tigers and I believe they are deserved favorites in this one. 

Incredibly, UNCW has won seven games this year in which they faced a double digit deficit. Not only that, four of those DD deficits were overcome in the second half! On Monday, when I successfully faded them (as DD favorites), the Seahawks needed overtime to outlast William & Mary, who is probably the worst team in the conference. UNCW has ZERO double digit wins in conference play. Not only are they 3-0 in overtime games this season, they are 9-2 SU when the final margin is six points or less. This has been one of the “luckiest” teams in the country thus far. 

Towson is one of FIVE teams in the CAA that are rated ahead of UNCW in my own power ratings. In fact, Towson is the top CAA team in those same ratings. They’ve won 10 of 12 (both losses by 5 pts or less) and are coming off a 36-point smashing of Elon last Saturday. While UNCW was in action Monday, Towson has been off for four days. The spot favors them, they are the better team and have revenge. What’s not to like? The Tigers are also 21-8 ATS L29 road games (10-2 this year). 10* Towson

10* Portland (8:10 ET): While I don’t think that the Blazers are going to be able to match their most recent performance, which was an excellent 122-107 win (as 12-point underdogs!) at Milwaukee, the chances of them being blown out here in Memphis tonight also seem remote. This is the second game of a back to back from the Grizzlies, who were 121-109 winners last night in New Orleans thanks to holding the Pelicans to a paltry 15.4% shooting from three-point range. You’ve got to think Portland shoots better than that. Right? 

The Blazers have won three in a row, not only upsetting Milwaukee, but the Lakers and Knicks as well. HC Chauncey Billups called the win over Milwaukee “probably our best game.” Portland outrebounded Milwaukee 58-43 and got the lead up to 21 in the third quarter. That was a really impressive win for the Blazers, who reshaped the roster at the trade deadline as they look to hold on to the last play-in spot, which they currently occupy (holding a one-game lead over New Orleans). 

Memphis has an incredible first half to the season as they are 41-18 SU, the third best record in the league. I actually have them rated as the fourth best team in the conference (behind Utah), although still better than everyone from the East. I just think that this spot is not ideal, laying double digits without rest and returning home after a three-game road trip. Ja Morant is on the injury report (questionable) with an ankle. The Grizzlies have actually lost twice to the Blazers this season, once by five here at home. Take the points. 10* Portland

8* Gardner Webb (7:00 ET): I’ve got Gardner Webb rated as the best team in the Big South this year, better than either of the two division leaders: Longwood and Winthrop. Tonight’s game presents an opportunity for the “Runnin’ Bulldogs” to even up the score with Winthrop, for a two-point loss they suffered last month (they led that game by seven at halftime). A win here would also pull Gardner-Webb into a first place tie in the Big South’s South Division. So it’s a really important game and I expect the home team to deliver. 

Winthrop has a poor ATS record this season (6-15 overall), but has also managed to be one of the luckier teams in the country. The Eagles are 15-8 straight up, but have only outscored opponents by 1.5 points per game. Including the aforementioned win over Gardner-Webb, Winthrop is an extremely 8-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. They are 9-0 SU at home, but only 6-8 SU (3-10 ATS) when on the road or at a neutral site. 

Given all the luck in close games and the poor ATS record, you would be correct in guessing Winthrop has a pretty terrible ATS record when favored. You would be correct as the Eagles are 3-12-1 ATS in the chalk role. They are NOT favored tonight, nor should they be, as Gardner-Webb comes in hot with six consecutive victories - all by six points or greater - and they ran away with an 82-65 win over Charleston Southern on Saturday. Meanwhile, Winthrop is off another close win (65-61 over Presbyterian) and ripe to be “shown the door.” 8* Gardner Webb

8* Alabama (7:00 ET): Alabama blew the cover for me on Saturday, but at least the fans in Tuscaloosa left happy as the Crimson Tide hung on for a key 68-67 win over Arkansas. That win got the Tide back in the Top 25. For a while now, I’ve been pretty adamant that this team is better than its record and absolutely deserves not just to be ranked, but ranked higher. They have beaten three of last year’s Final Four teams (Houston, Gonzaga, Baylor) and faced the #1 strength of schedule in the entire country! 

Tonight, on ESPN2, the Tide hosts Mississippi State. This is a big revenge game as Bama lost 78-76 in Starkville last month. Alabama led that game by four at the break, held Miss St to 2 of 16 shooting from three-point range and yet still somehow lost. One thing seems to be certain though; Alabama definitely knows how to defend the three-point line when facing the Bulldogs. In the previous three head to head matchups, they’ve held them to 4 of 47 (8.5%!) from behind the arc! That’s insane. 

At the same time, as I’ve said before, Alabama’s own three-point shooting should start to improve. Somehow they are hitting just 27.1% from three at home this season. They were right around that number at Starkville last month. I just feel that Nate Oats’ team is set to go on a major run here at the end of the regular season and with Kentucky (on the road) looming, the Tide can’t afford a letdown here. They led Arkansas by as many as 13 in the second half Saturday. Look for the win and cover this time. 8* Alabama

8* UMass (7:00 ET): I think that this is a great spot to fade St. Bonaventure, who is coming off B2B big wins over St. Louis. I had the Bonnies on Friday when they went to St. Louis and recorded a 68-61 win as an underdog. Then they beat the Billikens 83-79 at home on Monday (as two-point favorites). A third game in six days, laying double digits, seems like a pretty rough spot for the Bonnies, so I’ll play accordingly and take the points. 

UMass was able to pull out a two-point victory over St. Joe’s on Saturday. Unfortunately, they just missed out on the covering as they were three-point favorites. Two late free throws sealed the game. Honestly, the Minutemen should just be thrilled that they won considering second leading scorer Rich Kelly was held to only three points. It was also a nice bounce back after losing outright, as eight-point chalk, to GW the previous game. 

There’s a gap between the top six and everyone else in the A-10 and these teams are on opposite sides. But UMass has the scheduling edge coming into this game having not played since Saturday. The Minutemen have actually won their last two road games, beating LaSalle and Rhode Island.I can’t see the Bonnies matching their shooting from the last two games vs. St. Louis (they were close to 52% overall) and it’s worrisome they just allowed the Billikens to make 56.8% from the field on Monday. 8* UMass

10* Over Bayern Munich/RB Salzburg (3:00 ET): I expect plenty of goals to be scored in this first leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 matchup. These two sides met twice in last year’s Champions League, albeit in the Group Stage, with Bayern winning 6-2 and 3-1. Both matches featured over 30 shots and 4.6 expected goals. I’m not saying to expect another eight goals like when they last faced off here in Austria, but expect at least half that number on Wednesday. 

Bayern Munich’s offensive prowess needs little introduction at this point. The 2019 UCL winners currently lead the Bundesliga (as per usual) and have scored a whopping 70 goals in their 22 matches on the domestic front. In this year’s Group Stage of the UCL, Bayern scored 22 goals in sweeping all six matches. Seven of their last eight matches across all competitions have seen at least four total goals scored. You should obviously expect the favorites to find the scoresheet multiple times here. 

But also expect Bayern to concede AT LEAST a goal in this first leg. I’ve already mentioned that they conceded three times to Salzburg in the two matches last year. Well, they’ve also conceded in four of their last five matches coming into Wednesday and most of those fixtures were against teams in the bottom half of the Bundesliga. Bayern just conceded FOUR times in a shock loss to Bochum last weekend. This version of Salzburg is much improved from the one that faced Bayern last season and will definitely find the scoresheet. 10* Over Bayern Munich/RB Salzburg

8* Over Clippers/Suns (10:00 ET): So the Clippers sure proved me wrong last night, defeating the Warriors as six-point underdogs (at home), 119-104. They shot an incredible 56.5% from the floor against the league’s most efficient defense. While they probably aren’t reaching those heights tonight, in a tough spot vs. Phoenix, any offensive regression should be “canceled out” by some defensive regression, this being the second night of a back to back. Stopping the Suns, who have topped 130 points in each of the last two games, will be tough. 

Steph Curry had his way with this Clippers defense in the first half last night, scoring 26 points. Curry and his teammates then cooled off considerably in the second half. The rest of the team shot just 41.2%. I don’t think the Clippers will be able to do that to the Suns. While their defense has improved somewhat, LA still allowed both Milwaukee and Memphis to score more than 130 recently. Phoenix has the second most efficient offense in all of basketball.

In each of these teams’ last seven games, the Over is 6-1. Again, with tired legs, defending the Suns is likely going to be a problem tonight for the Clippers. Keep in mind that right before beating the Warriors, they allowed Luka Doncic to score nearly 100 points by himself in two games against them. On the flip side, with the All-Star Break approaching, we may not see the same defensive intensity here from the Suns. The Clippers have scored at least 109 points in 10 of their last 11 games. That would be more than enough for another Over here. 8* Over Clippers/Suns

10* Indiana (9:00 ET): I successfully faded Wisconsin over the weekend and will look to do the same again tonight. As I said before Saturday’s game vs. Rutgers, I don’t think the Badgers are quite Top 25 worthy, let alone Top 15. Despite being off to their best start in five years (19-5 SU overall) and just one game off the lead in the Big 10 title race, my power ratings have them as the EIGHTH best team in the conference. One of the seven above them is tonight’s opponent and - given the line - it looks like the oddsmakers agree. 

Indiana is three games back of Wisconsin, both in terms of overall and conference record. But, even at home, it speaks volumes that they are favorites over the #15 ranked team in the country. That’s even on a three-game losing streak. Saturday saw the Hoosiers lose up at Michigan State, 76-61 as four-point dogs. They did not shoot the basketball well (33.9% overall from the field). But this is a much different team at home where they are 13-2 SU and shooting 47.1% 

Also key here is that IU is holding the opposition to a 36.3 FG% when playing here in Bloomington. Honestly, that’s not far off from their overall season average as this is a top 20 team in adjusted defensive efficiency. Wisconsin is a top 10 team in the “luck” rating over at KenPom as they are an incredibly fortunate 11-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. I believe the Badgers’ luck will “run out” down the stretch. At home and on a three-game losing streak, you KNOW that Indiana is going to be highly motivated tonight. 10* Indiana

10* Under Hornets/T’wolves (8:10 ET): I realize that “all signs” point to the Over in this matchup, but it’s the highest O/U line of the season in the NBA and I’m going Under. Minnesota has been on a simply incredible run of Overs lately with that particular bet hitting in 16 of their last 19 contests. Eventually though, that run must subside. Why not at home where their games “only” average 214.4 PPG, which is well down from their overall season average of 225.0 PPG? 

While Minnesota has been surging as of late, Charlotte is heading in the opposite direction. They have dropped seven of eight and in the last game trailed 74-43 at the half. That was at home. The Hornets did defeat the T’wolves back in November, 133-115, but they shot a blistering 55.7% from the floor in that game, including 23 of 40 from three-point range. Those numbers will not be repeated tonight. Before their last two games both went Over, Charlotte was on a run of six straight Unders. The Under is also 6-0 this year when they are on exactly two days’ rest (as they are here). 

As I mentioned, Charlotte has lost seven of eight. In the one win, which was against the moribund Pistons, they scored 141 and shot 55.7%. But in the seven losses, they have shot no better than 42.6% from the floor. I get why this total is so high, but again, it’s the highest O/U line for any NBA game this season and very reactionary towards recent results. Even giving up the most PPG in the Eastern Conference, Hornets’ games “only” average 228.4 PPG. There’s value here on the Under. 10* Under Hornets/T’wolves

10* Golden State (10:40 ET): The Warriors appeared to be headed for a third straight defeat on Saturday. They trailed the Lakers by six with 3:47 to play, but then Klay Thompson took over and ended up with a season-high 33 points. It was a 117-115 win for the Dubs, but they have still failed to cover five in a row, a streak that includes outright losses to the Jazz and Knicks. I expect a strong effort tonight against a Clippers team that just isn’t very good. Lay the points. 

The Clippers also won by two points on Saturday, outlasting Dallas 99-97, despite 45 points from Luka Doncic. Doncic had 51 when the teams played on Thursday. That game was won by the Mavericks 112-105. The two games prior saw the Clips surrender 135+ points. They currently sit eighth in the West and I don’t see any upward mobility for them. Not as long as Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both remain out. 

These teams have not met since November. Golden State has won both meetings this year, by two at home and by 15 on the road. I’m not all concerned about the five-game ATS losing streak as the Warriors had won nine in a row before that. They are #2 overall in my power rankings (only trailing Phoenix) and continue to play great defense (#1 in efficiency). The Clippers just don’t have enough answers offensively to keep pace. 10* Golden State

8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Kansas figures to move up a spot or two in the polls when they are released later today. Currently ranked #8 in the country, that sounds about right for Bill Self’s team. It was a narrow escape vs. Oklahoma on Saturday, a two point win as 10.5-point favorites. The Jayhawks trailed for much of the game before a 15-2 second half run gave them the lead for good. Still, this team is only 2-6 ATS its last eight games and was a SU loser last Monday (at Texas). I’m taking the points here. 

Oklahoma State rolled to an impressive win on Saturday by blowing out West Virginia 81-58. While that was just the second win over the last seven games for the Cowboys, four of the five losses were by five points or less. It’s been a tough season in Stillwater, with a self-imposed NCAA Tournament ban. But playing on national television tonight should lead to an inspired effort, especially off the big win. 

The last time these teams played (Jan 4) Kansas won 74-63 despite missing 19 consecutive shots at one point. It was a tie game going into halftime. With OSU holding teams to just 40% shooting for the year, I think they still in this one from start to finish. Kansas is 0-4 ATS this season when playing with just one day of rest in between games. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Alabama State (9:00 ET): I’ve won by going against Mississippi Valley State before and now seems like a good time to do it again. The Delta Devils, just 1-21 SU on the season, have surprisingly covered three in a row. That’s their longest ATS win streak of the season. They didn’t win any of the games, mind you, but lost to Jackson State by four, Alcorn State by eight and Alabama A&M by two. Their chances of staying close for a fourth straight game seem remote, given how the season has gone for them. 

Alabama State is coming off back to back losses and will be looking to rebound from getting upset 75-70 (as eight-point favorites) Saturday by Arkansas Pine-Bluff. The big difference in that game was Alabama State’s inability to take advantage of the fact they had eight more free throw attempts. Despite the B2B losses, the Hornets remain tied for second place in the SWAC’s Eastern Division. A strong close to the regular season means improved seeding for the conference tournament and this is a must win.

Alabama State won the first meeting, 84-75, thanks to shooting 53.7% from the floor. MVSU is just a disaster defensively as they give up almost 90 PPG on the road while averaging just 63.4 themselves. I have them rated as the worst team in the country. Their last game went to FOUR overtimes and that was on Saturday, so there has to be a sense of fatigue here. Lay the points. 10* Alabama State

8* Fiorentina (2:45 ET): This seems like a logical time to fade Spezia. The hosts are on their longest run without a defeat - EVER - in Serie A. They’ve won three and drawn once over the last four fixtures, but it hasn’t meant much as they still sit 15th in the table. Their -18 YTD GD is still fifth worst in the league. Three of the last four results have come against bottom five sides and last week’s 2-2 draw against last place Salernitana had to be considered a disappointment. The club’s most impressive win during the unbeaten stretch, 2-1 over AC Milan, came via a shocking stoppage time goal. 

Fiorentina sits eighth in the table with 36 points, well ahead of Spezia. Now 10 points back of the top four, it’s unlikely that the Viola will make a run at the top four, but the two Europa League spots are still a possibility. Losing top goal scorer Dusan Vlahvoic via transfer to Juventus was a blow, but look for Krzysztof Piatek to pick up the slack. In the midweek win over Atalanta in the Coppa Italia Quarterfinals, the Polish striker connected twice. 

Looking at the two sides’ season-long results, I just think we’re getting some good value on the visitors. Something that’s rather interesting here is that Fiorentina has conceded the fewest number of shots this season in Serie A while Spezia has conceded the most. Fiorentina has never lost to Spezia, who was promoted before the start of last season, and won the reverse 3-0 back in October. It may not be that easy here, but look for a win and the full three points. 8* Fiorentina

8* William & Mary (2:00 ET): Save for Providence, I’m not sure there’s been a “luckier” team in College Basketball this season than UNC Wilmington. The current CAA leaders have been an underdog more times than they have been favored and are 9-2-1 ATS when getting points with eight outright upsets. It’s been the Seahawks’ record in close games that has really been the key, however. When the final margin is six points or less, UNCW is 9-2. That includes Saturday’s 85-79 win over Charleston. 

So the Seahawks aren’t blowing many teams out. That’s fine when you’re the underdog 50% of the time, but here they are double digit favorites for the first time in conference play. William & Mary is second to last in the Colonial, so perhaps this makes sense, but consider that it was just a few weeks ago that UNCW was actually an underdog (on the road) to the last place team (Northeastern). Things may not have gone well for W&M the first time they faced UNCW (lost by 22), but in this early start time I think they can stay within the generous number rather easily. 

Other than the win over William & Mary, UNCW has ZERO double digit wins in conference play. As I’ve stated before, there are FIVE teams in the CAA rated ahead of the Seahawks in my power ratings. Obviously, they’ve cleaned up at the betting window to this point, but this is a team to fade down the stretch. UNCW has won seven games this year where they trailed by double digits. Four of those DD deficits were overcome in the second half. I’m just not a believer. Take the points. 8* William & Mary

10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): Cincinnati has been a wonderful story this season, making it to just their third Super Bowl in history. This is a franchise that had not won a playoff game going all the way back to 1990. But let’s be frank here; the Bengals have been outgained on a per play basis in each of the last three games. In their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1988, they found themselves down 21-3 to the Chiefs, yet somehow pulled out a miraculous 27-24 overtime win. The Bengals feel like they will be a very “public dog” come Super Sunday, thus I’m going to fade them. 

I think people are forgetting that this is the second time in four years that the Rams are appearing in the Super Bowl. The last time didn’t go well as they lost 13-3 to the Patriots in the lowest scoring SB ever. But this Rams team is better AND playing on its home field. Now, SoFi Stadium isn’t exactly the strongest homefield advantage in the league. But the Rams are 7-3 SU here this season and know the place well. Let’s not forget what happened in LY’s SB when Tampa Bay, playing on its homefield, destroyed Kansas City. It’s pretty interesting that no team played in its home stadium for the first 49 Super Bowls and now it’s happened two years in a row. 

The Rams have pretty clearly been the better team in all three of their playoff games. They boat raced Arizona (in this stadium), then went on the road and took a 27-3 lead over Tampa Bay. That game should have never ended up being so close at the end. In the NFC Championship, the Rams did trail most of the way, but also outgained the 49ers 396-282. The big key in this matchup is the Rams’ defense, which is easily the best Cincinnati will have faced this season. Incredibly, the Bengals have faced just ONE top 10 defense in 2021-22! Again, it’s been a nice story out of Cincy, but look for it to end poorly and this team to regress next year. The Rams are simply better. 10* LA Rams

8* Iowa (2:00 ET): I think Iowa is better than its overall record (16-7) and certainly what they’ve done so far in the Big 10 (6-6). In fact, along with the KenPom ratings, I consider the Hawkeyes a top 20 team in the country. Out of the Big 10, only Purdue and Illinois rate higher in my own personal power ratings. This afternoon, before the Super Bowl, they’ve got a chance to shine in a spot they typically perform well in (16-4 ATS as home favorites of -12.5 or higher) and it comes against the conference’s worst team. 

Nebraska is the opponent in question here. As I just said, the Cornhuskers are off a win, their first this year in Big 10 play. The win came Wednesday, in Lincoln, 78-65 over Minnesota. That ended a 14-game regular season losing streak in conference play. But the ‘Huskers have still lost 11 in a row on the road. Yes, they have been covering spreads more often than not this year. But Iowa has just two home losses all season (Purdue, Illinois) and is outscoring visitors by 19.4 points per game. 

It was on the road that the Hawkeyes turned in their highest scoring game in Big 10 play since 1995. The game took place on Thursday when they went to Maryland and waxed the Terrapins 110-87. Iowa is a top five team in the country in offensive efficiency and averages 83.4 PPG for the year. I really sense that this game will quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Iowa

10* Tulsa (8:00 ET): It has been about as unfortunate a season as it can be for Tulsa, who carries the unfortunate distinction of having a bottom five luck rating over at KenPom. They’ve been much more competitive than their 7-15 SU record would suggest. In games decided by five points or less, they are somehow 1-9. This after losing, as seven-point favorites, to East Carolina here at home earlier in the week. The final score there was 73-71, really unfortunate as the Golden Hurricane had the halftime lead. 

But I think today is the day for Tulsa to break through. They are hosting a Cincinnati team that just isn’t as good as its been in recent years. That was evident when the Bearcats went down 80-58 at the hands of Houston last Sunday and that was at home. They did bounce back against South Florida, winning 70-59 on the road Wednesday. But Tulsa actually beat that same USF team by an even larger margin, 76-45, albeit it was at home. The Bearcats really benefited from some lousy USF three-point shooting (1 for 9) while sinking 10 of their own 21 attempts. 

This is also a revenge spot for Tulsa, who was blown out at Cincy, 90-69 back on Jan 20th. That was the Bearcats’ highest scoring game all season as they sank 55% of their 3PA. That won’t be repeated on the road where they are just 4-3 SU this season and shooting a paltry 38% overall. Meanwhile, Tulsa has covered seven consecutive times as a home dog of three points or less. Take the points here. 10* Tulsa

8* Cleveland (7:40 ET): Two teams that won last night are back in action on Saturday with Cleveland traveling to Philadelphia. The Cavs continue to be one of the most pleasant surprises in the league as they are second in the East (!) with a 35-21 record after coming back to defeat Indiana 120-113 last night. They actually trailed by 21 points early on (in the first quarter) but outscored the Pacers 32-17 in the fourth. It was the second time in three games that the Cavs erased a 20+ point deficit to beat the Pacers. 

The Sixers are 1.5 games back of the Cavs, in fifth place in the East. They beat Oklahoma City 100-87 on Friday as Joel Embiid had his 22nd consecutive game with 25+ points. A dominant third quarter was the difference against the Thunder, whom Philly held to 38.9% from the field, including 6 of 35 from three-point range. That was a much needed defensive effort as the Sixers only shot 38.7% overall themselves and were 7 of 26 from beyond the arc.

The key here is that Philly continues to be short-handed as James Harden and Paul Milsap, both acquired at the trade deadline, have not yet been cleared to play. Cleveland could be without Darius Garland (questionable), but remember they just went out and got Caris LeVert from Indiana. It had to be painful for Pacers’ fans seeing LeVert go for 22 last night. This Cavs team is pretty deep as seven players were in double figures last night. They are also #1 in the league in scoring defense. Take the points. 8* Cleveland

9* Eastern Kentucky (5:00 ET): Eastern Kentucky has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country so far this season, mainly due to a 1-6 SU record in games decided by five points or less. The one win in that scenario took triple overtime and that was a little over a week ago against Kennesaw State. Since that 3OT victory, the Colonels have lost to Liberty and Jacksonville, leaving them fourth in the Atlantic Sun’s West Division. But today they’ve got a wonderful opportunity to get on track against a team they are tied with in the standings. 

Lipscomb has lost three in a row and 8 of its last 10. Earlier in the week, they fell at Liberty 78-69, but did cover as 14-point underdogs. The Bisons really never had a shot at winning outright though. They were down 15 at the half and never seriously threatened, even though Liberty’s second leading scorer was just 2 of 11 from the field. Something else to consider with Lipscomb is that they only have seven wins over D-I teams and four of them have been by five points or less. 

So, in what’s projected to be yet another close game, I’m calling for a reversal of fortune for the road team. Both these teams do struggle to defend, but Lipscomb is worse when it comes to three-point percentage, allowing its opponents to hit 37.6%. The Bisons are just 2-8 ATS this season vs. teams that have losing records. While EKY is just 11-14 SU overall, they are the better team here and already beat Lipscomb by 14 points (86-72) last month. Look for them to make it a season sweep here. 9* Eastern Kentucky

8* Rutgers (2:00 ET): Rutgers will be looking to pull its third consecutive upset here, having previously beaten Ohio State and Michigan State. They face a Wisconsin team that I believe is overrated at #14 in the country and the Badgers are coming off a big revenge game (that they won) over Michigan State. While this game does not take place at the RAC, the Scarlet Knights should be more than “up” for a trip to Madison, a place where they’ve never won since joining the Big 10. Take the points.

Against Ohio State on Wednesday, Rutgers scored the game’s final 10 points to pull off a seemingly improbable 66-64 win. But they were dominant against Michigan State, winning that one 84-63 as a 2.5-point dog. Six of the Scarlet Knights’ last seven games have been decided by eight points or fewer, the exception being that win over Michigan State. So they don’t get blown out very often. In fact, five of Rutgers’ nine losses this season have come by three points or fewer. 

My own personal power ratings have been much lower on Wisconsin this season than the pollsters are. At 19-4, it’s the best start for the program in five years. But my power rankings still say they are a fringe Top 25 team at best. They have a very high “luck rating” (3rd in the country) over at KenPom. Though tied for the Big 10 lead, the Badgers are only the SEVENTH best team in the conference according to my power rankings! They have gone an incredibly fortunate 11-1 SU this season in games decided by six points or less. This is a potential outright upset. 8* Rutgers