8* Orlando (8:05 ET):  There was a time this season when the Magic were leading the league in the ATS standings, but a disastrous start to 2016 has changed things dramatically. They have still shown a profit at the betting window for the season, mind you, but are just 2-9 ATS in the New Year (1-8 SU w/ the one win coming over Brooklyn). They've lost six in a row straight up, the last two both painfully coming in overtime.  Friday saw them blow a 15-point fourth quarter lead, at home, against Charlotte. Then last night saw them get held to only 35 points in the second half and overtime at Memphis (scored 65 pts before halftime!). Despite the fact they had to play overtime and lost, I still don't see why they should be getting this many points tonight in Milwaukee.  This is yet another classic case of an unrested visiting team being undervalued.

Jason Kidd returns to the Bucks bench tonight, but considering the way the team performed in his absence, I'm not sure this is all too positive of a development. In 18 games w/o their head coach, Milwaukee went a respectable 8-10 straight up. Prior to his hip replacement surgery, the team stood at just 11-17 SU overall. They have lost two straight, the last one coming in the final stop of a four-game road trip, 116-99 at New Orleans. Playing in the second of a back to back, things really fell apart in the second half as the Bucks went from ahead to down 17 in just over 14 minutes of gametime. Defense was again a concern as they allowed the Pelicans to score 30+ points in each of the final three quarters. This team ranks 26th in the league in terms of defensive efficiency.

Orlando crushed Milwaukee in the only prior matchup this year, winning 114-90 as 3.5-point home favorites back in November.  Clearly, it's been a dramatic shift in the market since then, but should there have been?  The Bucks are still a bad team and I don't know that the home court edge they have for this one is going to be enough to offset the discrepancy in defensive numbers.  The Magic hold foes to just 99.4 points per game and my guess is this line would look a lot different had they held on to beat either Charlotte or Memphis.  Take the points.  8* Orlando

8* Chicago (7:35 ET):  Despite having only 52 points, Carolina is a team that deserves your respect (2nd in Corsi, 4th in Fenwick). I shouldn't have to tell Chicago that as they lost to the Hurricanes, 2-1 back on December 27th.  But, coming off a 5-2 win over Calgary Sunday, I fear the Canes are in "far over their head" as the defending Stanley Cup Champions pay a return visit here. The Blackhawks, who have a Western Conference-leading 70 points, got back on track w/ a 2-0 shutout of St. Louis on Sunday. They'd previously dropped B2B games after winning 12 straight, 10 of those in regulation. In 2016, there have been just two games where they allowed more than two regulation goals. They get their revenge here.

The 'Hawks outshot the 'Canes 36-27 last month, but ran into a hot goaltender. That would be Eddie Lack, who stepped up w/ 35 saves. Lack has been Carolina's primary goaltender ever since Cam Ward went down w/ a concussion. But with this being his fifth consecutive start, you have to wonder if fatigue will start to become a factor. A .916 save percentage his L4 has come in the face of a lot of shots (131).  The offense matched a season-high w/ five goals the last time out and it's worth noting the team is only 4-7 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals. They'd totaled just two goals in their previous three games, mind you. Even though they won earlier in the year, the Hurricanes have consistently struggled to solve Corey Crawford and the Blackhawks, scoring just five goals total the L3 meetings.

While I have my concerns w/ Lack's potential performance tonight, no such concerns exist w/ Crawford for Chicago. He is tied for the league lead in starts (41) and has delivered a 1.40 goals against average and .960 save percentage during a personal 9-1 stretch. He's off a 25-save shutout of St. Louis Sunday and was not the one between the pipes for his team's lone bad performance (4-0 loss at Florida on Friday) since the New Year. A big difference between now and the first time these teams played in the change in the Blackhawks' top line, which has resulted in an immediate scoring surge. Seeking revenge for a home loss, Chicago is a perfect 3-0 this season and they're also 20-5 taking on a team w/ a losing record. 8* Chicago

8* Wisconsin (7:00 ET): Looking at the results from this year, this past weekend in particular, unranked home dogs hosting a ranked opponent have done unbelievably well. I had a couple on Saturday, Tennessee and California, both of whom pulled outright upsets at the expense of South Carolina and Arizona respectively. Then on Sunday, I had Temple over SMU. The Owls weren't alone that day as we also saw Oregon State down USC and Virginia Tech cover against North Carolina. Tonight sees this opportunity present itself again for us as Wisconsin hosts #19 Indiana. With the Hoosiers riding a 12-game win streak, but having lost 13 straight times in Madison, something will have to give here. I think I've made it clear which way I'm going. Take the points.

Indiana has done a fine job of avoiding the Big 10 heavyweights so far as they have not played a single game against Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland or Purdue.  They do own a win over tonight's opponent, but that was by just a single point in Bloomington. Given the final score there (Hoosiers were favored by 7.5), I'm surprised that no real adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers here. Granted, IU has produced some really impressive margins of victory lately w/ three of their last four wins coming by at least 25 points. But those wins all came at home and against the bottom of the league. This is a team that has shot the ball remarkably well this season (52.3 FG%!), the last two games in particular.  It will be difficult to maintain that. 

Wisconsin is off a good week themselves, one that saw them upset Michigan State, then go to Penn State and win 66-60 as 2.5-pt chalk. Something to keep in mind is that the Badgers did hold Indiana to just 59 points, on the road, earlier this season. A similar effort tonight should lead to the same result at the betting window. This was a team due for a turnaround post Bo Ryan (legendary coach retired mid-season) as they have suffered seven losses by six points or fewer, five of them by a combined nine points. Eight of their 13 straight home wins over Indiana have come by double digits. It used to be unheard of to find the Badgers catching points at the Kohl Center, but shockingly this will be the fourth time it's happened so far in conference play this year! The previous three saw one outright upset (Michigan St), one push (Maryland) and an ATS loss by a single point (Purdue).  8* Wisconsin

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET):  Visiting Ball State comes in off one of the more controversial victories of the season, an 88-87 double overtime decision at Eastern Michigan where MAC officials essentially "gifted" them the game thanks to not one, but two no-calls that were pretty flagrant (note: two of the officials from that game have been suspended). Not only was BSU not whistled for a foul (when it appeared that they were intentionally trying to commit one), but after a steal, a player clearly traveled before dishing the ball for the GW 3-pointer. Comeuppance for the Cardinals will come tonight, however, in the form of a trip to Buffalo, who is looking to bounce back from an ugly result its last time out. Lay the short number.

Buffalo is back home here after being taken to the woodshed Saturday in Kalamazoo by Western Michigan. The final score there was 91-71 in what was Buffalo's fourth time playing on the road in the last five games. That game was essentially "over before it started" w/ WMU racing out to a 17-2 lead and they would go on to shoot 51 percent from the field, including 13 of 21 from three-point range.  You won't find too many teams that have played only eight of 19 games at home this season, but Buffalo is in that boat. They're back on the road for two more, starting Saturday with a visit to Toledo. So the Bulls need to regroup tonight and thankfully the numbers back them up as they are averaging 83.6 points per game here for the season. They've also won all five games that they've been favored in this year, going 3-1 ATS. 

Ball State is 4-2 straight up to start conference play. That's pretty shocking considering the previous two seasons saw them go just 4-34 SU vs. the rest of the MAC. Also, during that same time, they were 0-31 SU on the road, regardless if it was a conference game or not! This year has brought improvement in Muncie, but the Cardinals are still only 9-48 SU their L57 tries as an underdog and the likelihood of them pulling off B2B road wins is quite small from where I sit. This is a team that has five wins by three points or less this year, one of them against Alabama A&M and another over Miami (OH). Their last two wins have been by a combined three points. They have not played a single team from a "Power Conference" all year.  Meanwhile, Buffalo had won two straight by double digits before taking that bad loss at Western Michigan. They've also beaten Ball State five of the last six times they've played. 10* Buffalo

8* Kansas (9:00 ET):  All of a sudden, everyone seems back on the Iowa State bandwagon again. The Cyclones have won three straight, one of them against then #1 Oklahoma exactly one week ago here in Ames.  They followed that up by going to TCU and picking up a tough road win as nine-point favorites, 73-60.  But despite an amazing 25-4 ATS record when laying three or less at home, I do not see ISU beating its second top three opponent in less than a week's time. Kansas responded from a bad loss to Oklahoma State on Tuesday by rallying back to beat Texas in Lawrence on Saturday. Bill Self's team has dropped B2B road games, but I think they're a steal here as the underdog.  Take the points.

Kansas has failed to cover four in a row. But this will be the first time all season that they have been an underdog. Even after factoring in the home court advantage for ISU, I do not believe they deserve to be favored here.  It was just two weeks ago that everyone was jumping off the Cyclones' bandwagon as they'd lost three of four (admittedly all by five points or less). They've yet to be beaten badly in a game this year, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and call for their biggest margin of defeat all season.  Defensively, they have their issues, like when they gave up 94 points in B2B losses to Baylor and Texas earlier this year.

When down 35-30 at the half to Texas on Saturday, one could have made the case than Kansas really hadn't played all that well going on 3.5 games at that point. But things sure changed in the second half vs. the Longhorns, whom they outscored 46-32 and I expect there to be a bit of a carryover effect here. KU really hasn't shot the ball well over its last six games, but I expect that to change here.  Meanwhile, I don't see Iowa State duplicating its 54% percent shooting from the last game.  It's not often that I'll go with the road team in College Hoops, but when a better team is getting points, I'll make an exception.  8* Kansas

10* Under Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET):  Memphis comes into this one riding quite the Over streak, seven straight games in fact, but I look for that to come to an end here. Orlando pays a visit and while they're off a 120-116 loss to Charlotte, that's a misleading final as the game went into overtime after the Magic allowed 30 points in the fourth quarter. The Grizzlies have topped 100 pts in five consecutive games, always in the 101 to 103 point range, but consider that this is a team that averages only 96.5 points per game for the year. Their defensive numbers are also slightly up over the same time as well. So too are Orlando's, almost due entirely to the overtime loss their last time out. This should be a low-scoring game. Take the Under.

The Magic had actually scored fewer than 90 points five times in seven games prior to falling in OT vs. Charlotte. This is a team that averages only 96.1 PPG at home. In terms of offensive efficiency, we're talking two of the bottom six teams in the league here (Memphis 25th, Orlando 26th).  They also each rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pace of play (Memphis 27th), so the total number of possessions in this game should be somewhat limited. Assuming the Grizzlies are unable to maintain their recent hot shooting (47.9% last 5 games), their scoring would naturally drop. They are also likely to improve defensively from the last game when they allowed Minnesota to shoot 50% from the floor in an outright loss as 3.5-pt favorites.

The Under is 64-37 in all Magic road games the L3 seasons. Also, it is 8-2 after they allow 105+ points their previous game and 7-1 after scoring 105+. Again, keep in mind that the last game went into overtime.  As for Memphis' loss to Minnesota, they really hurt themselves by fouling so much as they sent the T'wolves to the free throw line 36 times where they coverted 33 of those opportunities. I would not expect Orlando to benefit from something like that here as they average only 18 attempts from the charity stripe per game. The Grizzlies' Over streak comes to an end tonight.  10* Under Magic/Grizzlies

8* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): The Islanders should be plenty fresh for this one seeing as Saturday's game vs. Philadelphia, which was set to take place here on home ice, was postponed due to weather. Tonight, they are set to host Detroit in a battle of third place teams. While both they and the Red Wings may be identical in their standing in the standings, deeper study reveals that one is clearly better than the other. New York has outscored its opponents by 14 goals this year while Detrot, an overachiever in my opinion, has actually been outscored this season and is just a .500 team when factoring in overtime losses. Averaging 33.4 shots per game their L5, the Isles are in fine form. Look for them to earn the two points here.

A win here would move the Isles into second place in the Metro. This was obviously a team w/ high aspirations coming into the year but given the Rangers fast start and the fact that the Capitals are the best team in the league right now, there should be no shame in where they're at. Only six teams in the league have better goal differentials and four of them are the first place teams. Overall, NY is 3-0-1 its last four games, including a 5-2 win at Ottawa Friday night. They've had 33 or more shots on goals each of the last four games and come in averaging 33.2 per game at home this season. Goaltending has been strong, whether it's Thomas Greiss or Jarslav Halak. The Isles have beaten Detroit 8 of the last 10 times they've played.

As for the Red Wings, they lost their last time out, 4-3 at home to Anaheim.They've surprisingly fared quite well out on the road of late (won six of seven), but keep in mind that prior to the last two games they'd been averaging only 1.8 goals their previoius 11. They are relying a lot on goaltender Petr Mrazek. While the Isles are top 10 in both goals scored/allowed, Detroit is only 21st in goals scored/11th allowed. Also, when it comes to special teams, give a big nod to the Isles second ranked penalty kill.  8* NY Islanders

9* San Jose (10:05 ET):  Though both teams here played last night, I think the set up is really in favor of the Sharks, now winners of seven of their last eight after beating the Wild 4-3 on Saturday. The Kings lost yday, 3-2 in Arizona, making it two straight losses for them. This will be their sixth game in the last nine days, one more than San Jose has played, plus they are the disadvantage of having played a late game last night while the Sharks were done in the daytime. Having closed the gap in the Pacific to eight points, this is a critical game for the home team, who would love nothing more than solidify their status as the second best team in the division. Having already taken two of three this season in Los Angeles, the Sharks have to feel as if they might just be the best the division has to offer.

San Jose has a curiously subpar home record. They are 9-12-1 at The Tank. But recently they've turned things around w/ wins in four of their last five here.  The turnaround started w/ a dominant 7-0 win over Toronto on January 9th.  Since that time, they've scored four or more goals in four of the last seven contests. Last night saw them score the game-winner late, but they had a 33-25 edge in shots, so they certainly deserved to win. It was the fourth time in the last five games the Sharks finished w/ 30 or more shots, which is a positive sign. Part of the reason I called the team's home record "curious" is that they allow just 26.1 shots/game here. Goaltending was failing them early on, but lately both Martin Jones and Alex Stalock have played much better.

Considering that the Sharks rank 4th in the league in goals per game and 3rd on the power play, the Kings figure to be under siege here. That would be fine if Jonathan Quick was between the pipes, but w/ this being the second night of a back to back, it figures to be Jhonas Enroth instead. Enroth has not won since November 12th. He has an .895 save percentage his L4 outings (not good) and figures to get little help from an offense averaging just 2.2 goals its last five games.  The expectation that Los Angeles "can't lose again" only serves to give us tremendous value on a team that's red hot right now. 9* San Jose

10* Brooklyn (3:30 ET):  Certainly, the Nets are not an "attractive" buy right now, but getting this many points, at home, they are a good value. Any time you have a team that's dropped 10 of 11 games - straight up and against the spread, mind you - like they have, it's a tough sell. But the good news is that the last time we saw them on a five-game losing streak, they won outright, here at home, against the Knicks. Usually, when a team makes a mid-season coaching change, you see SOME sort of improvement over the short-term. That clearly hasn't happened with this group and because of that we are now able to grab what is a TON of points here at home. Oklahoma City is just 5-13 ATS on the road this year. Take the points.

Six days ago, the Nets were in Toronto and played the red-hot Raptors rather tough - for three quarters. Up by three, things then fell apart over the final 12 minutes (outscored 31-16) and for many that final score was no better than a push. Returning home, things have only continued to get worse for Brooklyn. They were the wrong team at the wrong time Wednesday vs. Cleveland (who was coming off a humiliating loss to Golden State) and then Friday's game vs. Utah saw a crowd far below capacity due to the weather (only about 5,000 in attendance). The Nets played like they wanted to go home after halftime, getting outscored 37-17 in the third quarter.  As bad as things have been here, I just have to imagine that the team is due to play well, at least once.

Oklahoma City ended up having to hold on after blowing a 17-point lead Friday night in Dallas. It was their seventh straight win. Yet, outside of Durant and Westbrook, this isn't a great team and they remain one of the worst bets in the league at 18-26-1 ATS overall. Steven Adams (sprained right elbow) won't play here.  Consider that back in November, the Thunder failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites against the Nets.  Now, here in Brooklyn, they're being asked to lay more points. Hopefully, the weather cooperates and we get this game in because I think the home side is a great value plus the points.  10* Brooklyn

10* Under Celtics/76ers (7:05 ET): Philadelphia, believe it or not, has covered five straight games. Two of those they actually won straight up, including their first victory over an Eastern Conference opponent this season, 96-87 against Orlando back on Wednesday. The key to this stretch has been a somewhat dramatic uptick in offense. Keep in mind that this Sixers team is last in the league in scoring at 94.3 points per game. During this five-game ATS win streak of theirs, they have averaged 103.8 points per game.  I would anticipate regression to the mean taking place sooner rather than later and with Boston's recent games all being higher scoring than usual (5 straight Overs), this seems like a natural spot.  Take the Under.

Scoring in Celtics games has really been exceeding expectations of late. They have both scored and allowed 100+ points in five straight games. Those five games have averaged a whopping 224.4 points per game.  One of those did go to overtime, but still we're talking about an overall increase of 9.8 points per game during that time on offense and eight more points per game allowed than per usual. I can't see these kind of increases continuing. Note that the O/U line here is much higher than it was for either of previous two matchups this year (198, 201.5). The last matchup resulted in an 84-80 final, so I'm really quite surprised at how high the number is here.

This game was supposed to be played yesterday, but got postponed due to weather.  I anticipate the delay having an adverse affect on both times and thus the result will be a somewhat sluggish affair.  The Sixers win on Wednesday actually snapped a streak of them going over 100 points at three games, but consider that prior to that they'd topped 100 in only 11 games all year. Again, I feel it's almost a lock that we'll see them regress from recent offensive performances here.  The same applies to Boston, who has scored 100+ points in seven straight games. That's their longest such stretch of this season. Similarly, they've allowed 100+ in eight of nine games.  There's been no other such stretch for them this season. A clear case of regression to the mean here. 10* Under Celtics/76ers

10* Over Cardinals/Panthers (6:40 ET):  I'm not at all surprised where the pointspread is at for this matchup as we have the top two teams in the league in scoring differential (Carolina #1, Arizona #2) and the respective points scored vs. points allowed are nearly identical. Both offenses come in averaging slightly more than 30 points per game w/ Carolina at 31.2 and Arizona at 30.3.  There wasn't another team in the league above the 30 PPG threshold. On defense, Carolina allows 19.5 PPG and Arizona 19.6, both good enough to be in the top 10. But because of notable injuries in both secondaries, I feel that it will be more likely to see the respective offenses in top form as opposed to the defenses.  Take the Over. 

For Carolina, they have a big time issue at cornerback, opposite Josh Norman. Last week, Seattle fell into such an early hole that you may not have noticed that they began to exploit that very issue in the second half.  Whether it was Robert McClain or Cortland Finnegan, Russell Wilson had a field day picking apart the Panthers' second corner. Keep in mind that neither of those players were with the team prior to December 15th. If there is one team uniquely qualified to best take advantage of such subpar secondary depth, it would be Arizona, who has an excellent receiving group. Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown all had strong years and Norman will only be able to cover one at a time. Cardinals QB Carson Palmer struggled big-time last week, but I anticipate he'll take advantage of Panthers' depleted secondary (which really struggled LW when bliztes didn't get home and there's no Jared Allen this week) and have a big bounce back game.

Carolina's offense didn't average as many yards per game as Arizona's did, but they will have the best offensive player on the field Sunday night in the form of probable league MVP, Cam Newton. When Newton looks downfield in this game, he won't see Tyrann Mathieu and that should bring a big smile to his face. The Panthers may not have the same quality receiving corps that Arizona does, but considering what Aaron Rodgers was able to engineer last week with a real "skeleton crew," that's not necessarily important.  Newton has been able to make "chicken salad" out of you know what all season, throwing for over 4,000 yards at 7.7 yards per attempt. He faced plenty of blitzing this year, which the Cardinals will undoubtedly do a lot of here, and typically performed well in those situations. The Panthers have scored 31 or more points in seven of their last eight games and I'd pay no mind to the scoreless second half last week as they clearly took their "foot off the gas pedal." 10* Over Cardinals/Panthers

10* New England (3:00 ET):  I'm a contrarian by nature, so it's rare that you'll find me on a side that is receiving such an overwhelming amount of support (from both the public and the "sharps") as the Patriots are here.  But I have such little regard for Denver as a top seed (only +59 in point differential during the regular season. New England was +150.) that I have no qualms about laying the short number on the road. Besides, road favorites are a strong 6-1 straight up and against the spread since the NFL Playoffs expanded to the current format of 12 teams in 1990. The one loss, ironically, came when a #4 seed (Arizona in '09) got to host. So, history certainly favors the Pats here as does recent form when you compare how they looked last week vs. Kansas City to how the Broncos looked against the injury-riddled Steelers. Furthermore, this is a revenge spot, a situation that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have excelled in the last three seasons (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS). Lay the points.

Though both of these teams won by identical seven-point margins in the Divisional Round, the scripts were hardly similar. New England led the entire way and was only outgained due to a late Chiefs drive that took far too much time. Given they were up two scores, the Patriots defense was more than willing to concede those yards at a snail's pace. On offense, with a full compliment of receivers back, the Patriots went almost exclusively to the pass and it paid off w/ the Chiefs' very good defense never being able to get into any kind of rhythm or bring pressure.  If you're concerned at all about the Pats being outgained last week, don't be, as Brady averaged 7.2 yards per pass (compared to 4.9 for Alex Smith) and Denver was outgained far more significantly in its 23-16 win over Pittsburgh (396-324). There, the Steelers proved that you can move the ball on this Denver defense with a pass-heavy approach and it's notable the Black and Gold led going into the fourth quarter. 

Revenge is often overrated in handicapping, but in this instance it carries significant meaning. New England was a three-point favorite for a Sunday nighter when it suffered its first loss of the season on this field back in Week 12.  I had Denver in that game. But it was a lucky win. The Patriots led 21-7 early in the fourth quarter when a muffed punt by return man Chris Harper dramatically changed the game. Denver would go on to score a touchdown thanks to a short field and from there never looked back. While the Patriots were able to force overtime on a 47-yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal, it was for naught as the Broncos won the game on a CJ Anderson 48-yard TD run on their next possession. That loss dropped Tom Brady to 106-3 SU all-time when leading by at least 14 points in the fourth quarter, but fortunately for him a lot has changed since November 29th. Most importantly, receivers Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman are both back in the lineup. Edelman is a vastly underrated piece of the New England offense as the team has won 22 of the last 23 times he's played including a perfect 10-0 this season. In addition to the muffed punt, another key swing in the regular season meeting was TE Rob Gronkowski leaving w/ an injury.  He's back too. Another difference from the first meeting is that the Patriots have had an extra day to prepare (played last Saturday) as opposed to the short week they were coming off the first time around (had beaten Buffalo on MNF). I would of course be remiss if I didn't mention that Brock Osweiler was the Denver QB the first go-around, now it's Peyton Manning, who had the worst season of his career. While it's going to be cold Sunday, it's not expected to snow (which it did in the regular season). Brady has typically thrived in colder conditions (59-38 ATS) throughout his career while Manning (19-20 ATS) has not.  All signs point to the Patriots getting revenge and moving on to their seventh Super Bowl since 2001.  10* New England

8* Under Patriots/Broncos (3:00 ET):  When these teams met on this same field back in Week 12, I took both Denver and the Over. Both plays won, yet so much was misleading about the 30-24 score in favor of the Broncos. For starters, the game went to overtime, which only serves to inflate the final tally. Interestingly, only because of overtime did Denver get to 30 points, something we have not seen the offense do in any other game this season! Then there was the fact it was just a 14-7 game entering the fourth quarter.  Down 21-7, Denver took advantage of a short field (off a muffed punt) to score its second touchdown of the game and things took a dramatic turn from there. Interestingly, five of the game's scoring drives were 60 yards or shorter, including the game winner, which was capped by a 47-yard CJ Anderson touchdown. The total is a little higher here than it was for the regular season matchup, but I expect the rematch to be lower scoring than the original, significantly lower scoring in fact. Take the Under.

Clearly, a big difference between this and the Week 12 matchup is the presence of Peyton Manning. But as I discussed in last week's analysis (going against the Broncos), I'm not sure if Manning is a significant upgrade from Brock Osweiler, or even an upgrade at all. Last week, the Broncos offense scored one touchdown and it came directly after a Steelers fumble set them up on a relatively short field. Looking at the five drives that ended up w/ a field goal, four of them went for 30 yards or less, three starting on the Pittsburgh side of the field.  Manning has had a terrible year in Gary Kubiak's offense, even after transitioning back into his preferred shotgun formation. Some of that was due to injury, but the fact remains that this offense has been held under 25 points in regulation in eight of Manning's 10 starts. One of the two exceptions was the wild Week 2 win at Kansas City, won on a defensive score, the other was a unique thrashing of Green Bay.

Lest we forget that we'll have two of the best defenses in the game on the field in Sunday's AFC Championship Game.  Denver has allowed the fewest yards in the league and only Pittsburgh was able to score more than 30 points against the league's #4 scoring defense. The Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger is the only QB to throw for 300+ yards against them (did it twice). It will be interesting to see if the Patriots employ the same pass-heavy approach we saw last week vs. Kansas City as Denver's defense was the best against the pass in the regular season. Meanwhile, don't sleep on the New England defense either, which ranked 9th overall and 10th in scoring (19.7 PPG). They held the conservative Alex Smith to less than five yards per pass last week and I can't see Manning doing a whole lot better. Yes, Denver's offense was plagued by drops last week, but whatever nominal gains they have in that department here will be offset by a Patriots defense that's playing well.  8* Under Patriots/Broncos

8* Temple (12:00 ET):  This game was supposed to be played yesterday, but because of the terrible weather on the East Coast, got pushed back a day. Sounds to me like the perfect time to play against still-unbeaten SMU, who is on the road and due to drop a game. The fact that the Mustangs are the nation's lone remaining unbeaten is somewhat ironic considering they are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to academic sanctions. It's also somewhat miraculous due to the fact the team is down to seven scholarship players after Keith Frazier, Jr (who was at the heart of the academic scandal) opted to transfer. The Ponies were very lucky to escape with their unblemished record intact Tuesday vs. Houston after trailing much of the way (did not cover).  Take the points here.

Temple has been quite formidable as an underdog all season, going 6-2 ATS in that role with three outright upsets. Though as a favorite of 10 pts, they had little issue w/ cross-town rival LaSalle on Wednesday, winning 62-49. That marked the Owls' fifth consecutive cover. Three of the previous four had come as underdogs, including outright wins over UConn and Cincinnati. They've actually beaten the Bearcats outright twice. The team's only bad game in conference play came against Houston, ironically enough, but other than that they are 5-0 ATS vs. the rest of the American.  This will be their third straight game in Philly, so they clearly should be less affected by the postponement than their visitors from Texas.

SMU trailed Houston for nearly the entirety of the first half on Tuesday and led for only eight minutes of game time.  Keep in mind that was a home game. This will be the Mustangs third time on the road in the last four games and that can really catch up w/ a team, especially one like this that's so short-handed. This will be a triple revenge spot for Temple, who lost all three meetings with SMU last year due in large part to woeful three-point shooting. They finished the three games just 18 of 71 from behind the arc. They haven't been much better from distance this year, but when they hosted SMU last year, it still was only a five-point loss.  SMU clearly should be on upset alert here.  8* Temple

10* Chicago (8:35 ET):  There's going to be a lot of pressure on Cleveland here after the decision to fire David Blatt and I just think double digits is too much to lay, even if I do think Chicago is a tad bit overrated. The Bulls lost last night, 110-101 in Boston, but I say no shame there as the Celtics are a pretty good team.  Obviously, the Cavs are the class of the Eastern Conference, but still they're outscoring teams by less than six points per game this season and this looks like a clear overlay. LeBron and company are just 15-20 ATS when favored and lost to the Bulls (as four-point underdogs) on Opening Night. Having dropped six of eight overall (1-7 ATS), Chicago will be just as desperate tonight.  Take the points.

The humiliating 34-point home loss to Golden State earlier this year (I took the Warriors!) likely "sealed" Blatt's fate to the point that not even B2B double digit wins over Brooklyn and the Clippers could save him. New HC Tyronn Lue has never served in this capacity before and I'm interested to see how he performs. This is a high-pressure situation as no team in league history has ever made a coaching change with a record this good. Consider that going back to LY's Eastern Conference Semifinal, four of the last five meetings between Cleveland and Chicago have been decided by five points or less. 

Chicago was also recently crushed by Golden State at home (again, I was on the Warriors), losing by 31. They couldn't "hit water from a boat" in that one, going a horrific 1 for 20 from three-point range. They followed that up by going 3 for 13 from behind the arc against Boston last night and turning the ball over 20 times.  The good news here is that I just don't think they are capable of playing any worse. Also, there's been a "Derrick Rose sighting" as the former league MVP has averaged 25.3 points the L3 games.  Defense has been an issue of late, but I expect the Bulls to keep this one closer than expected as the Cavs likely come out tight.  10* Chicago

10* California (8:30 ET):  Though they just snapped a three-game losing streak w/ a 75-70 win over Arizona State Thursday, this remains a critical game for Cal, who is widely considered to be a bubble team at this point of the season.  Something to consider though is that all three losses they suffered came on the road. They're 12-0 SU here in Berkeley, so despite not having senior guard Tyrone Wallace, I like the Bears chances here against #12 Arizona, who finds itself playing on the road for the second time in three days. That's the dreaded situation in this conference and note that all three of 'Zona's losses this year have come away from Tucson. Yes, the Wildcats have won the L4 meetings by double digits, but tonight will be Cal's night. Take the points.

Remember that Arizona is also w/o one of its top scorers, Allonzo Trier, a freshman that had been averaging 19.3 PPG in Pac 12 play before breaking his hand in the loss to USC.  That didn't deter me from backing this team against what I felt was an overrated Washington squad and they rewarded me by winning by 32. They've followed that up w/ two more double digit wins, but you have to imagine they'll start to feel the loss of Trier.  This spot is almost indentical to the USC game as it's a second of two road games in three nights and they're a short road favorite. It is highly unlikely that they will again benefit from an opponent shooting as woefully as Stanford did Thursday (30.6 percent). 

Cal has been an underdog only two times this season. They covered both games, losing by a combined four points to Oregon and Virginia on the road. Again, they haven't lost at home. This is a team that has two phenomenal freshman, Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown, who combined for 37 points in the win over Arizona State Thursday.  The Bears' average margin of victory here at home is 17 PPG, so the fact they are an underdog here seems like a steal to me.  Especially since this has been the best team in the Pac 12 on the defensive end of the floor, allowing just 66.2 points per game on 37.8 percent shooting. This one "smells" like an upset.  10* California

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET):  The Bucks lost last night in Houston, 102-98 as two-point dogs, but come in undervalued for the second game of a back to back tonight here in the Big Easy. The only reason that I can think of as to why they are taking more points against the Pelicans than they were vs. the Rockets is that it's the second game of a back to back. But betting against this Bucks team when unrested would be a mistake as is evident by their 9-2 ATS record in that role (6-5 straight up).  New Orleans, despite four wins in its last five games, remains one of the league's biggest disappointments and is a money-burning 5-8 ATS this year when laying points. The Bucks had covered five straight before yday's loss.  Take the points.

The Bucks have now been w/o HC Jason Kidd for the last 16 games, but just to show how little that means, they've gone 8-8 SU in his absence as opposed to 11-18 with him on the bench. They'd won a season-best three in a row heading into last night and a late rally that came up just shy should carry over into tonight.  The team should also be highly motivated to end a 13-game losing streak here in New Orleans. They lost by just a single point in last year's visit (as seven-point dogs) though.  Over its last six games, the Bucks have not been beaten by more than five points. After scoring 100+ in four straight, they've been held under that threshold the last two. But they should have little difficulty scoring here against a porous New Orleans defense that is allowing 105.1 PPG this year.

The Pelicans shot 53.5% Thursday vs. Detroit, their second highest percentage in a game all season. Scoring has been way up for this team the L5 games and defensively they've been better as well. But still ranking 28th in defensive efficiency tells the story.  This is not a good price range for the Pelicans to be in as they are just 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They've also struggled against the Eastern Conference this year, going 4-10 SU/ATS. They did handle Detroit, who was in the second game of a back to back Thursday, but the difference there was that the Pistons were off a win at Houston the night prior, thus making it more likely to be prone to a letdown. 10* Milwaukee

10* Michigan State (6:30 ET):  A Tom Izzo coached team had not lost three in a row since 2006-07. That changed Wednesday night when they lost here at home to Nebraska, 72-71, their second straight one-point defeat and third straight loss overall. It's getting to be desperation time in East Lansing and now #7 Maryland comes calling.  But I happen to think the Terps are one of the more overrated teams in the country and Sparty is now a tremendous value laying a short number. MSU still allows only 55.5 PPG here at home and if there was a silver lining in Wednesday's loss, it was a return to form for Denzel Valentine, who contributed 24 pts, 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Lay the points.

Remember, Michigan State was once ranked #1 in the country. They are actually just 1-3 SU since Valentine returned, which is pretty shocking. Having come 50 points short of the linesmakers expectations during the losing skid is even more shocking.  It's difficult to pinpoint what exactly has been the cause of this subpar play, but one could certainly point a finger at Bryn Forbes, who has scored just five points on 1 of 13 shooting in the two home losses. I would expect him to play much better this evening.  Wisconsin got to the free throw line 36 times last weekend and Nebraska shot 56.8 percent from two-point range Wednesday. I wouldn't expect to see a repeat of those numbers here either.

It's not like Maryland has set the world on fire recently. They happened to be on the right side of a close decision vs. Wisconsin, thanks to a last second shot, then lost at Michigan as three-point chalk.  They trailed the Wolverines by double digits, so don't be fooled by the final score (70-67) there.  Then, earlier in the week, the offense fell apart in the second half (just 17 points!) and they needed overtime to defeat Northwestern (whom they had beaten by 13 on the road earlier in the year).  Turnovers have been a major problem for the Terrapins, who are giving the ball away on 19.6% of all possessions (250th in the country). They are quite lucky to be the fourth best shooting team in the country, but Sparty's defense will rise up here in a "must-win" spot. 10* Michigan State

8* Duke (2:00 ET):  Somebody sound the alarm in Cameron as Duke has lost three consecutive games as a favorite. I made the mistake of taking them Monday as they dropped a second straight game at home, this one by two to Syracuse (were -11.5). All three losses have come by five points or less. While the loss of Amile Jefferson has definitely left Coach K a little shorthanded, I expect him to turn things around sooner rather than later. It starts Saturday afternoon in Raleigh where they'll face a NC State team in prime letdown mode following a big upset of Pitt (as nine-point dogs) earlier in the week. Previous to that, the Wolfpack were 0-5 SU in ACC play. Duke has owned this rivalry (30-6 SU) and I see that continuing here.

Prior to this losing streak, offense had not been an issue for the Blue Devils.  They still rank 4th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and average 85.6 points per game. But against the Syracuse zone, they scored only 62 pts (season-low) on 37.1 percent shooting.  What's most unfortunate about that is that they wasted their own strong defensive effort as they held Syracuse to just 35.2 percent for the game. They are only 123rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and if you're a team w/ size, you can give the Blue Devils some trouble. But I just can't see them dropping a fourth straight ACC game. Not against a NC State squad that is allowing opponents to shoot 41.7% from three-point range here at home.

The truth is that NC State is probably better than its conference record shows as the first four games, all losses, were decided by seven points or less. Then came a double digit loss at North Carolina. But everything broke right Tuesday at Pitt as they raced out to an unthinkable 44-19 edge at halftime and cruised to a 17-point win as nine-point underdogs. But I find it hard to believe that they can even come close to duplicating such a performance here.  Consider that the Wolfpack still turned it over 19 times in the victory, which is a little bit concerning. With the weather not good in Raleigh this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if the crowd support isn't what it normally would be for a matchup of this magnitude. 8* Duke

8* Oklahoma (12:00 ET):  For Oklahoma, it's first time atop the polls since 1989-90 is likely to be a short one as they were "upset" Monday by Iowa State, losing 82-77. I used the term upset in quotation marks, because despite the #1 ranking, it was hardly an upset as the linesmakers had Iowa State favored in Ames. OU is favored here, Saturday afternoon in Waco, against a Baylor team coming off a double overtime win against Kansas State on Wednesday. All that extra time does the Bears no favors here as the situation already favored the Sooners (two extra days to prepare), who are 13-4 ATS L17 trips to Waco. Lay the points.

At least from a pointspread perspective, Oklahoma has struggled in Big 12 play. They are 1-5 ATS w/ all but one game decided by six points or less. So, perhaps we should have seen Monday's result coming, especially on the heels of B2B two-point victories over Oklahoma State and West Virginia. But make no mistake about it; this is one of the best teams in the country w/ one of the best players (Buddy Hield). Plus, they are the best 3-point shooting team in the country, hitting a remarkable 45.7% for the season and that percentage actually goes UP on the road. Interestingly, the team actually made a season-best 17 three-pointers Monday vs. ISU, yet lost. The problem was outside of the starting backcourt of Hield and Isaiah Cousins, everyone else was a woeful 2 of 15 from two-point range. That's highly unlikely to be repeated.

Baylor was destroyed in the Big 12 opener, 102-74 in Kansas, but since then has won five straight and is actually the only team in the league w/ just one conference loss. But the team has been a little fortunate in its last two wins, first needing a buzzer beater to get by Texas Tech (63-60) last Saturday in Lubbock and then as I mentioned earlier, they needed two overtimes to get by Kansas State on Wednesday (trailed by as many as 10 in the first half). So the Bears have been living dangerously and history does not shine on them in this spot as they have NEVER beaten a #1 ranked team (0-6) in program history. Keep in mind that they have been blown out twice (Kansas, Texas A&M). 8* Oklahoma

8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): South Carolina still only has the one loss, 73-50 at Alabama, but I'm not sure there's a single person outside of Columbia that feels Frank Martin's team is one of the nation's elite. In fact, many rating systems don't even have them in the Top 25 and I'm inclined to agree. Wins over Missouri and Ole Miss over the last week again have the Gamecocks somewhat overvalued for this trip to Knoxville where waiting for them will be an angry Tennessee team that just got whipped here at Thompson-Boling Arena by Vandy. Perhaps you recall that I went AGAINST UT there as Vandy is the opposite of South Carolina, a team that is far better than its record shows. I don't see the Vols dropping B2B home games, so look for them to hand USC its second loss of the season.

The final score from Wednesday somewhat undersells how easily Tennessee was handled by the Commodores. Normally, losing by 14 at home would be bad enough on its own, but consider that the Vols trailed by as many as 28 in the game. But going back to my analysis, I was sure to point out what a bad matchup that was for UT as the smallest team in the SEC going against the biggest. It sure didn't help that they were outscored 39-12 from behind the three-point arc either. Now having dropped three of its last four, including B2B homes games, it's desperation time for Rick Barnes' team. Barnes called his team's performance "awful," rightly so, but it should be pointed out that they didn't have the usual amount of crowd support due to inclement weather keeping many fans away.

The fact that South Carolina even pulled out a victory in its last game is a minor miracle. They actually trailed Ole Miss by 11 w/ just under four minutes to go in regulation, but were able to force OT and win the game by three as 1.5-point favorites. It's been that kind of a season for them as they're now 11-3 ATS, but make no mistake about it, I anticipate this strictly being a "play against" team down the stretch.  This will be the first time this season that they are playing B2B "true" road games inside of a week. Tennessee is 6-3 ATS as a dog this year & 18-6 ATS L24 as a home dog of 3 pts or less. 8* Tennessee

8* San Antonio (10:35 ET):  Obviously, this spread is rather high. But, in my opinion, the linesmakers can't make it high enough. Consider that my own personal power ratings would have this line above -20! Also, consider that the Spurs are off a 28-point win (I was on the Over) last night in Phoenix where they cashed as 16.5-point road favorites. Phoenix has been very bad of late, but I'm not sure they are worse than the Lakers, who come into Friday riding a four-game losing streak and every defeat has come by at least 17 points. This is a matchup of my #1 and #29 rated teams.  I would have expected a higher spread for this one.

I'm not sure there are any superlatives left to describe San Antonio's season. Really, the only debate is whether its them or the Warriors that are the league's best. I side with the Spurs, who have a ridiculous +14.6 per game point differential and are on a historic pace at the defensive end of the floor. In terms of efficiency, they allow five fewer points per 100 possessions than the second best team. Since losing as an underdog (to Oklahoma City) in the season opener, Greg Popovich's team has been favored in every game and gone a ridiculous 30-12 ATS. They are 18-4 ATS when facing a team w/ a losing record and a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing in the second game of a back to back.  Ridiculous! 

What's also ridiculous is how bad the Lakers are.They lost by 22 to the Spurs last month, in San Antonio, but a change in venue is likely to bring little in the way of change in terms of result. LA is 30th in terms of defensive efficiency in the league, allowing a stunning 14.5 more points per 100 possessions compared to the Spurs. The organization's mentality of allowing Kobe Bryant to "do his thing" might help sell tickets, but it is stunting the team's growth as they should be focusing on playing the youngsters more.  There's no other way to put it - Byron Scott has done a hideous job this season.  8* San Antonio

10* Indiana (10:35 ET): This is a lot of points for the Pacers to be taking. In fact, it's the most they've gotten in any game this season. History shines brightly on them in this role as they've gone 13-4 ATS when getting 12.5 or more from the oddsmakers, including a perfect 2-0 ATS the L2 seasons. They don't exactly come into this nationally televised matchup with the Warriors in "prime form," but did at least snap a three-game losing skid Tuesday night w/ a 97-94 win at Phoenix.  Backers, myself included, really got "backdoored" in that one as at one point Indiana led by as many as 20 in the second half. There are some ugly trends that Frank Vogel's team must combat here, namely an 0-8 ATS record when seeking revenge for a home loss & a 5-13 ATS mark vs. the West. But they are 14-4 ATS when facing a team w/ a winning record and 8-1 ATS when taking the court w/ exactly two days rest. Take the points.

Meanwhile, I also happened to back the Warriors Wednesday night and watched them roll at Chicago, winning 125-94 and covering as only seven-point favorites (I also had them Monday at Cleveland). This is their first game back at home following a three-game East Coast swing, so might there be a little bit of a letdown, particularly w/ the showdown vs. the Spurs looming Monday?   Note that Golden State is just 7-9 ATS vs. the East this year. Draymond Green is listed as probable here, but is dealing w/ a head injury. 

As alluded to above, the Warriors beat the Pacers in Indiana earlier this year, 131-123 as 5.5-point chalk. Golden State shot a ridiculous 54% from the floor in that game and made 14 three-pointers.  My feeling is that the Warriors are starting to be a little bit overrated as prior to the B2B blowout wins over Cleveland and Chicago, they had gone 0-3-1 ATS the previous four games. Yes, they haven't lost at home all season, but I think Indiana will give them a tough game here. Note that the Pacers rank third in the league in terms of defensive efficiency.  10* Indiana

8* Iona (7:00 ET): The Gaels are off an outright loss their last time out, on the road, as they fell to Rider 79-75 as four-point chalk. That actually made it B2B outright losses as Friday saw them drop a wild game to Monmouth, 110-102, and no there was not overtime there! What that loss did was snap Iona's 26-game home win streak and things got real ugly as Iona HC Tim Cluess and several of his players didn't take too kindly to the Monmouth bench's continuing in-game antics. So, Sunday's loss at Rider was at least somewhat predictable. Jordan Washington (leading scorer) was suspended for that game, and this one too, but note Iona did quickly take a 16-point first half lead against Rider. They'll persevere here against a St. Peter's team that's playing its third game in six days (second straight on the road). Lay the points.

St. Peter's arrives here on a three-game win streak after upsetting Fairfield on Tuesday, 77-71 as three-point pups. The Peacocks shot an insanely good 56 percent from the field in the upset, but what's really keyed each of the last three wins is all three opponents shooting 35.5% or worse.  I think it would amount to "wishful thinking" that Iona would shoot that poorly tonight as they come in averaging 84.6 points per game at home. St. Peter's has excelled as an underdog this season, going 7-1 against the spread w/ five outright wins, but maintaining that kind of success is going to be difficult. This is the program's best ever start in MAAC play. Eventually, Cinderella is going to turn into a pumpkin. 8* Iona

10* Gonzaga (11:00 ET): This is annually St. Mary's biggest game of the year and one that typically ends in heartbreak.  Not only is Gonzaga 40-8 straight up the last 48 meetings between these WCC rivals (30-18 ATS), but they have won and covered five straight at the expense of the Gaels, including the 2014 Conference Tournament Final. Even on the road, it's been all Zags as they have won 13 of their last 18 visits to McKeon Pavillion. Though many will point to the fact that SMU has had a full week to prepare here and that Gonzaga is having a down year, I still feel the script will remain the same tonight as the better team is getting points.

St. Mary's record looks nice, but they clearly have been one of the nation's biggest overachievers. Their only two losses both came on the road and were by a combined seven points to Cal and Pepperdine.  The latest loss came as an eight-point favorite and actually marked the first game all season where the Gaels failed to cover (opened 12-0 ATS). They did bounce back against Pacific, at home, two days later. But, again, they failed to cover, this time as big 19.5-point chalk. You had to figure that sooner or later the oddsmakers would begin to catch up and we're starting to see that.  The trend continues here as I don't think they should be favored, even though they're the home team. Some teams just have their rival's number and that's certainly been the case w/ Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's.

  Gonzaga destroyed San Diego last Saturday, winning 88-52, for their largest margin of victory since the second game of the season. But that hasn't made them overvalued in this spot at all.  Rather, this will be the first time all season that the 'Zags will come in as an underdog and just the seventh time in the last three seasons.  Interestingly, they have won all three "true" road games so far, but failed to cover the spread each time. That's because they were asked to lay double digits in all three. Despite the "down year" in Spokane, Mark Few's team is still averaging over 80 points per game and that makes them quite the live dog. 10* Gonzaga

8* Over Spurs/Suns (10:35 ET):  This one looks like a clear mismatch on paper with the well-rested (three days off) Spurs and their league leading point differential (+14.3 PPG) facing off with a Suns team that has statistically speaking been the worst in the league over its last 10 games. This is also a matchup of the league's best vs. worst defensive team (I'm sure you know "who is who"), so when it comes to the total, something is going to have to give. Both teams have gone Under in B2B games and against one another, the Under has cashed in six straight meetings. I feel that's due to turn here. Take the Over.

In its last game, Phoenix actually held an opponent under 100 points.  They still lost mind you, 97-94 to Indiana, but what really sucked there for me was having the Pacers and watching them nearly blow a 20-point lead. So the Suns got in "through the backdoor" thanks to a 33-point fourth quarter (scored only 35 pts in the entire 1st half).  The Suns' offense has largely been "hit or miss" of late, but at home at least they are averaging 104.4 PPG.  The problem, which for us here is actually more a solution, has been their woeful defense. As alluded to above, they are yielding a league-high 106.7 PPG this year with the nadir performance coming on January 2nd when they allowed Sacramento to score 142 in regulation. Since then, the Suns have allowed over 100 pts in five of seven games, including three straight of 116, 117 and 117 prior to the loss to Indiana.  San Antonio, with an efficient offense, will certainly score plenty here.

In fact, the Spurs have scored at least 100 in every game since their X-Mas night loss to Houston, save for once, a win over Cleveland where they scored "only" 99 pts. That was last Thursday and I had the Under, but this game clearly will not have the same feel.  The key here, I feel, is Phoenix scoring at least 95 points. That would be above what San Antonio gives up for the year, but also below what the Suns average themselves. This is a high total for the Spurs, but a low one for the Suns, which shouldn't come as any shock. I find it interesting that this total is higher than either of the two previous meetings this season despite those games staying Under. 8* Over Spurs/Suns

8* LA Monroe (8:00 ET):  Yet another team off an outright loss here and it's LA Monroe, who has actually suffered the ignominy of four straight losses, all on the road. The last one saw them favored by 2.5 at GA Southern, yet the final result was 66-51, not in their favor. The score was almost identical when they lost at Georgia State two days prior. The first two games of the trip, ironically against stiffer competition, were both close games as the Warhawks fell to Arkansas State and Arkansas Little Rock by a combined four points. Needless to say, they should be thrilled to be back in Monroe for the next four games and I believe they'll start to turn things around tonight at the expense of a poor Troy team. Lay the points.

Again, I'll point to the home court edge as a likely deciding factor in this one. Troy is just 2-6 SU on the road and lost by nine in last year's visit here.  Despite their own 6-11 SU record (same as LA Monroe), the Trojans' overall numbers reflect a fairly mediocre club, one that is being outscored by only two points per game for the year. But the key is Monroe's impressive home numbers.  Not only are the Warhawks a perfect 5-0 SU this year in their own gym, but they're winning by an average margin of 21.4 PPG.  You won't find many teams that have played only five of 17 games at home to this point, so I wouldn't be surprised if the next two weeks help to turn around Monroe's season. They are 25-10 SU at home the L3 seasons.

Troy had actually dropped six in a row before Saturday's 66-57 home win over Texas State. They'd given up 80+ points in four of those losses, two times 90 or more.  Meanwhile, I look at LA Monroe's defensive numbers and wonder how this team could have a losing record. Sure, the numbers at home reflect a small sample size, but consider that they're allowing opponents to shoot just 40.2% for the year.  That number decreases at home to 37.4% w/ three point defense (28.3%) being particularly exemplary. They themselves are shooting 52.8% from the field at home, including above 42% from behind the arc. This should be a blowout for the Warhawks. 8* LA Monroe

10* New Jersey (7:05 ET):  Ottawa arrives here off B2B wins, both somewhat fortunate. There was a stunning third period rally to beat the Kings on Saturday, then Monday brought an even more crazy finish as they tied San Jose late (on a penalty shot!) when shorthanded and went on to win in overtime. This is the fifth and final game of a long road trip for the Sens, one that did not start out well at all as they were beaten by Washington and Anaheim by a combined score of 11-2. As per usual, they're still giving up goals in bunches (three in both wins) as they continue to rank near the bottom of the league in goals allowed (28th). While offense is not New Jersey's strong suit, I expect them to win this favorable matchup.

Already this season the Devils have taken two games from the Senators, both in Ottawa. The more recent meeting, which took place right before the New Year, was a 3-0 shutout despite a 36-21 disadvantage in shots. Normally when the final score and shot total are in such stark contrast, it might signal a different result is on its way the next time. But not here. While New Jersey is last in the league in # of shots per game, Ottawa actually gives up the most (33.5 per game). These teams want to play very different styles so considering the Devils were able to win despite allowing that many shots, it tells me if they dictate the pace here, it should be another easy two points. In the first meeting, New Jersey actually finished w/ 32 shots.

The Devils come in off B2B wins themselves, first a shutout of Arizona (2-0 on the road), followed by a 4-2 win over Calgary here on home ice Tuesday. We know where the strength of this team lies and it's between the pipes w/ Corey Schneider, who is having yet another excellent season (.954 save percentage L4 starts!) including the shutout of Ottawa last month. That 36-save performance improved his career marks vs. the Senators to 5-1-1 w/ a 1.39 goals against average. Schneider is clearly far superior to whomever Ottawa decides to go w/ in this spot. Also, the Devils have Mike Cammalleri back and he's their top offensive threat. In the two wins over the Senators this year, Cammalleri has five points (two goals, three assists). 10* New Jersey

10* Under Flames/Blue Jackets (7:05 ET):  Needless to say, this is not a marquee matchup on the Thursday night slate. Columbus has been resigned to last place ever since that dreadful 0-8 start and while things have improved a little w/ John Tortorella behind the bench, the team still has the fewest points in the league (38). Calgary isn't much better w/ only 43 points and has just one win to speak of over its L5 games, that being an unthinkable 6-0 decision over Florida. They've started out this road trip w/ B2B losses, first to Edmonton and then to New Jersey, totaling just three goals in the process. We know this team has awful special teams (30th on power play and in penalty killing) and they are 29th in goals allowed. Columbus is actually the only team worse when it comes to giving up goals, but I believe we'll be seeing an Under here in a matchup of two bad teams.

Regular readers/clients will recall that I played the Flames Under the total on the first game of the current road trip. That was an easy winner as they and rival Edmonton combined for just two goals (one each) in regulation.  It ended up being a loss for Calgary, but note that in the two games prior, they had allowed just 33 shots total. Because of that, it's a little odd to see that they've allowed 2.6 goals per game their last five as they're allowing just 25.8 shots/game over that same span. While more of their games this season have gone Over than Under, the Under is 11-5 in road games where the total is 5.5. Offensively, they have scored two goals or less in five of the past nine games.

One might look at the Blue Jackets' defensive numbers and figure this is an opportunity for Calgary to "get right," but not so fast. There's a big  X-factor here and that's Sergei Bobrovsky being back between the pipes. Granted, the former Vezina winner didn't look very good in his return (missed 17 games) Tuesday vs. Washington (allowed 5 goals), but he's still capable of being one of the top netminders in the league. Meanwhile, the Flames also get a lift in goal here with the probable return of Kari Ramo, who has a .924 save percentage his L4 starts. He's missed the team's last three games due to illness. With each team having its top goalie back, this one will be lower scoring than expected. 10* Under Flames/Blue Jackets

8* Old Dominion (7:00 ET): If you're a regular reader/client, then you know I've been targeting teams off an outright loss in their previous game as potential 'play on' opportunities. Such an opportunity will be presenting itself three times in this report, starting w/ Old Dominion. The Monarchs have actually lost three consecutive times as favorites, so the fact that they remain chalk here shows what kind of faith the market still has in them. Note that those three losses have all been by the slimmest of margins, six points total in fact, so I feel a bounce back is imminent. It's telling that despite the 3-11 ATS record, the Monarchs (9-9 straight up) are still favored here over a 10-8 Western Kentucky team. Lay the points here. 

Defense and home court advantage are two big edges to Old Dominion here. As far as the former is concerned, the Monarchs are allowing just 56.4 points per game here at home this season. Skeptics will point to them allowing only 38 to a non-board team (Delaware State), but the fact is ODU has allowed fewer than 75 points in all but two games this season and actually ranks 8th nationally in points allowed. Given that they only allow 56.4 PPG here at home, it should come as no surprise to find that they are 8-2 straight up here with a scoring differential of +16.3 per game. They had actually won 32 straight home games before losing here to UAB and Middle Tennessee by a total of four points last week (started 8-0 this year).

WKU, meanwhile, was only 1-7 SU on the road this season before a win over a terrible North Texas team this past weekend. The fact that the Hilltoppers were even favored in that game should tell you about the sorry state of UNT right there. Also consider that the 76 points allowed in that win was one of WKU's BETTER performances of late. They allow 77.4 PPG for the year (82.0 PPG on the road) and had given up 94, 82 and 83 in three of their previous four contests.  They were destroyed in last year's visit to Norfolk, losing 75-52 as nine-point dogs. The home court edge really is a big deal here as is ODU's defensive prowess.  8* Old Dominion

8* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): If you recall from the early part of the season, Memphis was a team that I said I was going to target as a 'play against.' So the fact that Cincinnati is in a "buy low" spot here (off two-point loss at Temple Saturday) makes the situation even sweeter. Clearly, Memphis is a program in steep decline under the watch of HC Josh Pastner following the "golden era" of John Calipari. Seven players had transferred out of the program even before this year even got underway and Pastner is nowhere near the recruiter Coach Cal was/is. The Tigers come in having won five of seven, but all the wins were against lesser competition than what awaits them here. Despite only a 13-6 SU record, Cincinnati is a dangerous team that I feel is poised to go on a nice run and land in the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points.

Yes, Memphis may have beaten the same Temple team that has now beaten Cincinnati twice, but let's look at those results. Memphis won by two at home over the Owls, while the Bearcats just lost by two to them. That was actually Cincy's fourth two point loss of the season, the others coming to Butler, Iowa State and SMU, all of whom are ranked. Had all three of those results gone "the other way," we'd probably see Mick Cronin's team ranked in the top 15 nationally.  Poor shooting has cost them recently (38.7% last 5 games) but I wouldn't worry too much about that as at home, they are at 47.1 percent for the year. Also, they have held their L2 opponents both under 40 percent, a threshold Memphis has been below in four of its last five games.

While looking over both teams' defensive numbers, you might figure that points will be at a premium and thus backing the dog is the way to go here.  But, again, not so fast. Memphis has played only two "true" road games so far and given up an average of 81 points per game in them. I'm far more confident in Cincinnati's ability to score tonight as they average 81.7 PPG here at home where they are outscoring foes by 18.8 points per game. The price range also shouldn't scare you as the Bearcats are a perfect 5-0 ATS the L3 seasons as home chalk of 6.5 to 9 points.  8* Cincinnati

8* Vanderbilt (9:00 ET):  Vandy, like Texas, is better than its record. I say that even though the Commodores let me down on Saturday by failing to cover an 11-point spot at home against an Alabama team that had just handed South Carolina its first loss of the year. Maybe, with the benefit of hindsight, that spread was too high. But tonight's line certainly isn't as it's a short number the Commies are laying in a visit to in-state rival Tennessee. Once again, it's another opponent fresh off an upset as the Vols beat Mississippi State 80-75 on Saturday as three-point road underdogs. As strong as they've looked in Knoxville this season (8-1 SU), they did lose their last game here, 92-88 to Texas A&M, and as is the case here they came into that game off fresh off an upset win. Lay the points.

This will actually be the fifth consecutive game where UT is an underdog, so right there you can get a feel about how the "market" judges them. Four of the team's last six games have been decided by six points or less. Predictably, the three times they've given up more than 80 points during that stretch, they have lost. Fortunately, they do average 79.6 points per game themselves, but what about a Vandy team that comes in averaging 78.4? Unlike the Vols, the Commodores are capable of playing a little defense as they are giving up just 65.4 PPG and allowing teams to shoot just 37.7% (27.5% from three-point range). That will be a big difference in this game.

It's hard to believe that Vanderbilt is just 10-7 SU this season given that they have a per game point differential of +13.0! For the sake of comparison, Tennessee is 9-8 SU, but only outscoring its opponents by 3.2 points per game! So the road favorite status is definitely justified for the Commodores here and in fact they came to Knoxville and won last year, 73-65 as one-point dogs. That's their only win in the last four meetings, however, so they won't be lacking for motivation. Throw in the fact that Tennessee will again likely be w/o forward Armani Moore (12.4 PPG), leaving them with a big size disadvantage for this matchup. Vandy has three players at 7 feet or taller on its roster, most notably Luke Kornet, and this is actually a matchup of the SEC's tallest vs. shortest team, which is great for the underrated Commies. 8* Vanderbilt

10* Minnesota (8:35 ET):  The T'wolves started the season surprisingly strong with an 8-8 SU record through 16 games. Since then, they have won just five times in their last 27 tries and lately it's been a real ugly 1-10 stretch with the only win coming at home against a similarly downtrodden Phoenix team. The misery continued last night in New Orleans where they were beaten 114-99 as 5.5-point dogs and obviously few will give them a chance here in the second game of a back to back. But, I'll continue to make the case that teams playing w/o rest are typically undervalued (particularly when on the road) and that is the case here in a visit to Dallas where the Mavs are off a SU dog win over Boston their last time out. Take the points.

Last night is an exception, but for whatever reason Minnesota has simply played better on the road this season.  They are just 7-13 straight up, but 12-8 ATS, which is a reflection of the high spreads they face on a game by game basis. Last night, the linesmakers were of little help as the team allowed the Pelicans to shoot better than 50% from the floor, but overall the T'wolves are being outscored by just 2.5 points per game away from home.  It was a six-point game when they hosted Dallas ten days ago, even though it was a poor shooting night (4 of 16 from 3-pt range).  While still winless this season in the second game of a back to back (0-7 SU), the T'wolves are 5-2 ATS as road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points, so this is a good range for them to be in.

Dallas is 5th in the West, but realistically nowhere close to the top four in terms of talent or results. They were blown out by both Oklahoma City and San Antonio on the road last week before returning home to surprise Boston Monday night.  In retrospect, it was pretty curious that they were getting two points at home in that spot. They did lead by as many as 17 in the fourth quarter before a dramatic swing had the Celtics up six and it looked as if the linesmakers might be 'spot on."  But the Mavs were able to force OT and win 118-113. That being the third time they had to go into overtime in the last nine games, you have to wonder if it will be the home team showing signs of fatigue in this one. Dallas has actually been outscored this season (-0.2 PPG) & is just 2-6 ATS coming off a SU win as a dog. 10* Minnesota

8* Golden State (8:05 ET): There probably won't be a better value all season than the one we got on the Warriors Monday night as they were actually a 3.5 point underdog when they went into Cleveland and destroyed the Cavaliers 132-98.  Naturally, expecting that kind of performance two games in a row would be somewhat foolish, but that doesn't mean there isn't value in taking the NBA Champs yet again.  Here, they visit a Chicago team off its own outright win as a dog (111-101 at Detroit, +3), but previously the Bulls had failed to cover five in a row. I am still not sold on this team under Fred Hoiberg and remember they are now w/o Joakim Noah for the foreseeable future. Golden State is still 60 percent ATS for the year (24-16-2) and just in a different class than Chicago. Lay the points.

It was downright ridiculous what the Warriors pulled off Monday night in Cleveland and even I (who took them) could not have anticipated such a one-sided affair. They scored 132 points on 54.1% shooting including 19 made three-pointers. They outscored the Cavs 31-2 in transition and the game was never close after Golden State went up 34-21 after one quarter w/ Steph Curry leading the way w/ 16 points. At one point, they led by as many as 43! Though all four of their losses this season have come on the road, the Warriors are still 15-7 ATS in those games w/ an average margin of victory of +8.7 per game. I don't anticipate any kind of a letdown here.

Chicago may be 9-2 SU w/o Noah this season, but his 8.8 rebounds per game were a big part of the team leading the league in that category. Also, the fact that the Bulls have allowed an average of 105.8 points its last six games is somewhat of an ominous sign here going up against the most efficient offense in basketball.  I think Chicago is somewhat lucky to be where it's at in the standings (third in the East) as they are outscoring opponents by only 1.4 points per game. They are 14-8 SU in games decided by six points or less, including needing a huge comeback to beat Philadelphia last week. Derrick Rose is nowhere close to the player he once was and for whatever reason this team simply does not shoot the ball well at home (42.8%).  Look for another Warriors blowout here. 8* Golden State

10* Detroit (8:05 ET): Despite a negative goal differential for the season (-5), the Red Wings have stayed competitive and are currently second in the Atlantic with 54 points. They are off a loss, three nights ago, here at home to Philadelphia. But that came in a shootout, so that means the club has still only taken one regulation loss in its last seven games overall. Meanwhile, St. Louis comes in having won four of five (despite low shot totals) following a five-game losing streak. Only one of those wins has come on the road however, and for the season the Blues are just a .500 team away from home while being outscored. They are certainly no strangers to the Motor City having previously been division rivals w/ Detroit for so long, but Joe Louis Arena has never been kind to them as they've lost 38 of their L60 visits. I'm on the home team here.

St. Louis has 61 points and is third in the Central, but they too have a weak goal differential (just +3). That's a far cry from the two teams they are chasing, Chicago & Dallas, so you can really make a case that both of these teams have overachieved. Certainly, the Blues have been a little fortunate of late, including a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh where they were outshot 38-25.  That came on the heels of an overtime win over Montreal where they were also outshot, this time by an even larger margin (49-22).  Whether it's Corsi or Fenwick, this team is just middle of the road (15th and 13th respectively) and I simply don't see the recent offensive surge continuing given the low number of shot attempts we've been seeing from them. This figures to be Brian Elliott's seventh consecutive start between the pipes due to Jake Allen still being injured. That's a lot to ask of a goaltender that isn't among the league's elite.

As for Detroit, they come into tonight having dropped four in a row at home. That's due to turn around though and lucky for them is the fact St. Louis not only has struggled here historically, but also is without a regulation win its last five road games overall.  Give the edge to the Red Wings in goal here as Petr Mrazek has a 1.31 goals against average and .957 save percentage in the New Year and has really had the Blues' number in his career. He's 3-0 all-time against them w/ a 0.97 GAA and .961 save percentage. Even without him, the Wings managed to win in St. Louis back in November, 4-3.  The Blues are just 3-7 SU this year when seeking revenge for a home loss.  10* Detroit

8* Texas (7:00 ET):  Texas is one of those teams that's better than its record, which is now 11-6 (straight up) following B2B wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State last week in Austin. Remember, this is just year one under HC Shaka Smart, who is w/o his best player (Cameron Ridley). Clearly, tonight's visit to Morgantown will be a challenge, but I think Smart will have his team up for it. WVU is coming off just its second loss of the season (by two at Oklahoma) and because of the nature of that loss, I wonder how they'll respond. This is also somewhat of a "flat spot" for the Mountaineers after playing the two top teams in the nation last week (Kansas, OU). I've said it before, but it bears repeating. WVU is unlikely to continue holding its opponents to such poor shooting numbers, while their own shooting is due to decline as well.  Take the points.

A case can be made that Iowa State is overrated, but beating them was a nice win for Texas last week. They followed it up by holding off Oklahoma State on Saturday in a game that really wasn't as close as the 74-69 final score indicates. At one point, the Longhorns led by as many as 23 points in the second half and were really rolling. But they missed 14 of their final 16 three-point attempts and that combined w/ poor free throw shooting let the Pokes in through the "back door." But, as an underdog, there's a lot to like about this team. They have yet to be blown out w/ their largest loss coming by 11 points against Texas A&M, which was the third game of the season and in the Bahamas. Four of the other five defeats have come by six points or less. Stylistically, they match up well against WVU as Smart is known to employ a similar kind of defensive pressure as his counterpart Bob Huggins.

The last time WVU played here in Morgantown, they "upset" then #1 Kansas, 74-63 (were only 1 pt dogs). In what was a very tough spot, they then had to go to Norman to face #2 Oklahoma and ended up losing 70-68 on a last second tip in. After two games like that, you have to wonder what the Mounties may have left in the tank here. Are opponents really going to continue shooting only 27.4% from three-point range against them? Probably not. Interestingly, Oklahoma was held to just 33.3% shooting and still won the game. WVU turned the ball over 16 times against the Sooners, which is cause for concern here. Consider that in their last three games, Texas has turned it over just 19 times - total. Those numbers are a big deal in a game that is bound to feature a lot of pressing. This spread just seems way too high.  8* Texas

10* Michigan State (6:30 ET):  Tom Izzo's team has now dropped B2B games outright, first to Iowa in what was a big revenge spot (were -9) and then Sunday at Wisconsin (were -6). But if Nebraska thinks they are going to be able to come into East Lansing and surprise the Spartans, they better think again. Each of the last two seasons, the Cornhuskers have upset Sparty, including 60-51 (as 14-pt dogs) here at the Breslin Center back in 2014. Last year's only meeting took place in Lincoln and it was another upset, this time by two as two-point dogs. Don't think for a second that Izzo won't be constantly reminding his players of that and as a result I expect an angry favorite to take care of business in this spot. Lay the points.

Revenge can often be an overrated factor in handicapping and we saw that play out the last time the Spartans were in East Lansing when Iowa came in and beat them for a second time this year, this time 76-59 and that was with Denzel Valentine back in the lineup for MSU. But remember that Iowa is a really good team (I had them in the first meeting), much better than tonight's opponent. Sparty's loss to Wisconsin over the weekend can be more easily "explained away." It was fouling, which they did too much of, leading to the Badgers owning a 36-16 edge in FT attempts. That clearly made a huge difference in a game that was decided by just a single point. Remember though; MSU had been in the top 10 defensively prior to the B2B losses. Though just 1-2 since his return, Valentine being back clearly makes this a better team.

Nebraska seems to be trending in the right direction as they have won three straight (4-0 ATS L4). Thus, they are likely to be feeling pretty good about themselves coming into tonight. But I question them being able to maintain their recent hot shooting (54.2% overall L3 games) against a team known for playing stingy defense. They are also not likely to dominate the boards here in the manner they did against their previous three opponents as MSU ranks 11th nationally in rebounding. With the Cornhuskers off a SU dog win at Illinois their last time out & MSU off B2B SU losses as a favorite, it's a clear sell high/buy low situation here. Remember that Nebraska had opened Big 10 play w/ three straight losses.  10* Michigan State

8* Los Angeles (10:35 ET):  As I wrote about in yday's Ottawa-San Jose analysis, the Kings took an awful loss on Saturday, allowing four third period goals to fall 5-3 to the Senators. They bounced back the following night however, beating Anaheim 3-2. I like them to earn another two points here in what was shaping up as a battle of division leaders in the Western Conference, but Dallas is on a major slide right now and has been passed by Chicago in the Central. Many wondered if the Stars would be able to maintain their fantastic start to the season and lately the answer seems to be "no" as they have dropped six of the last seven games overall and given up a lot of goals in the process. It's a big edge for LA getting this game at home and Dallas is showing clear signs of regression.

Dallas remains the highest scoring team in the league (3.3 goals per game), but offense has never been the issue for the team. Rather, problems at the other end of the ice have been what's held them back is previous seasons. We're starting to see some of those same issues rear their ugly head again lately as they've given up 26 goals the L7 games. Their only win during that time came by a score of 2-1 over Winnipeg at home. Now they are w/o a top defensemen (Jordie Benn) and goalie Antti Niemi has really struggled of late w/ a 3.75 goals against average and .882 save percentage his L4 starts. The team has lost all four of those games and they are just 4-9 SU on the road this season w/ him between the pipes.

Despite the uncharacteristic implosion late against Ottawa, Kings goalie Jonathan Quick has been his usual solid self. He has a 1.69 GAA and .938 save percentage his L10 starts.  The team always seems to rate well in both Corsi and Fenwick and this season has been no different as they are 1st and 2nd respectively in those two categories. That's a reflection on their emphasis on puck possession and they do a great job at limiting the number of shots from their opponents. They've done a really good job in that department of late (just 24.8 per game allowed L5) while Dallas is allowing 32.2 per game over the same time. These are two teams trending in opposite directions right now. 8* Los Angeles

10* Indiana (9:05 ET):  Just last week, the Pacers beat the Suns 116-97 (were -12) in Indiana. Believe it or not, Phoenix had actually taken seven of the nine previous meetings before that while also going a perfect 9-0 against the spread. Certainly, you'd imagine that trend has to start "going the other way" and given the current sorry state of the Suns, I'll call for Indiana to come in here and record another blowout. Now the Pacers have dropped three in a row, including a three-point loss in Denver two nights ago where the defense, uncharacteristically, let them down. But tonight they face an opponent in far worse shape as Phoenix is just 1-13 SU its last 14 games overall. Only three times during that stretch have they covered the spread.  Lay the points here.

Defensively, Indiana rates as the fourth most efficient team in the league as they allow just 99.1 points per 100 possessions. They were second before giving up 129 in Denver as the Nuggets scored 45 in the fourth quarter alone and 75 in the second half.  Needless to say, that was very "un-Pacers" like and the defensive lapse wasted their own 66 point first half (season-high!) on 66 percent shooting. Note, however, that Frank Vogel had only 10 players suit up in the loss and it appeared as if the team ran out of gas. They should have little trouble stopping Phoenix here though as the Suns shot just 40.4% in last week's matchup and have averaged only 96.8 PPG over the last month. That includes only 87 points in Sunday's loss to Minnesota.

Scoring should not be an issue for Indiana here either. Yes, they might still be down a few players, but they are facing a Phoenix team that is allowing the highest field goal percentage of any team in the league right now (47.6%), not to mention 113.4 PPG their last seven contests. If you're looking for a trend with the Pacers, note they have not lost four in a row all season long. Three times they've dropped three in a row and they've won and covered the next time out, every time. Unlike past seasons, the Eastern Conference has made a solid account for itself against the West this year, even being responsible for half of the Warriors/Spurs total losses, not to mention eight of the Thunder's 12. Somewhat surprisingly, Indiana has not played a role in that success, but I certainly expect them to take advantage of a lesser non-conference opponent, even if it's on the road. 10* Indiana

8* Loyola (IL) (9:00 ET):  Normally, I might take a look at a team like Loyola, who is off an impressive 51-41 upset of Northern Iowa on Saturday, and call for a letdown spot the following game. But the Ramblers have had quite the unique season so far. Prior to pulling off that upset, they'd lost five in a row, but this is by no means a bad team. Three straight losses came by a combined FIVE points and there is no doubt in my mind that this team is far better than its 8-10 straight up (5-12 ATS) record shows. Tonight, motivation should not be a question as they travel to Evansville to face one of the top teams in the Missouri Valley. There will be no letdown here as Loyola is due to start covering some more games. Take the points.

Admittedly, Evansville is a hot team right now. The Purple Aces are 16-3 SU for the season and have won nine of 10, including five straight covers. The one SU loss came by three at MVC leader Wichita State and since then they've posted three consecutive double digit victories, the most recent coming at Illinois State on Friday, 66-55 as 5.5-point chalk. But, perhaps, has this team reached its "tipping point?"  They've shot a ridiculous 52.2% from the floor this season and been above 50% in four of the last five games. That's in sharp contrast to Loyola, who is shooting a wretched 40.4% in conference play so far. Eventually though, these shooting percentages will start to even out. Loyola is one of the few teams in the MVC whose scoring average is actually DOWN compared to last year (remember rule changes). Despite being off an SU dog win, it's still a "buy low" situation with the road dog here.

As they showed against Northern Iowa, Loyola can certainly play some defense and that will come in handy here. Allowing just 62.2 PPG for the year, the Ramblers held UNI to 41 points on 27.1% shooting Saturday! Evansville is similarly stingy (just 65.5 PPG allowed) and two of its last three opponents have shot worse than 31% from the field.  But those defensive numbers certainly seem to indicate that points will be at a premium all around in this one, so naturally backing the underdog seems like the way to go.  Ramblers HC Porter Moser made some changes to his starting lineup for the last game and they certainly seemed to pay off. While Evansville has taken three of the last four meetings between the two schools, Loyola won here last season as six-point dogs. 8* Loyola (IL)

10* Over Maple Leafs/Flyers (7:05 ET): Though not quite as bad as they were a season ago, Toronto's 39 points are the second fewest in the league right now and have them in the basement of the Atlantic Division. Lately, things have not gone well at all. They've dropped five straight while getting outscored 19-5 in the process. That includes a horrendous 7-0 loss at San Jose ten days ago and they've since followed that up w/ three losses in four nights. With two days between road games here (lost 3-2 at Boston on Saturday), one would hope that they'd be ready to break out, but Philadelphia is going to provide ample resistance.  The Flyers have won five of their last six, three times scoring four goals. Over is the play here.

Both of these teams give up a lot of shots per game. Toronto allows the fourth most (31.2) while Philadelphia allows the second most (32.0). So, the numbers suggest that there will be plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. Over its L5 games, Philly has been better defensively as they've given up an average of just 1.8 goals per game. Three of those have gone into extra time. But I'm not sure how much longer goalie Steve Mason (.940 save percentage L4 starts) can stay this hot.  Offense has been a bit of a concern all year as the team ranks 28th in goals per game and 29th on the power play. But they've averaged 3.0 gpg their last six and facing Toronto (3.8 gpg allowed L5) should allow them to keep it going on that end of the ice. The Over is 6-1 this season in Flyers' home games when the total is 5.0.

While defensively the Leafs have been a disaster of late, so too has the offense. The team's power play is an unspeakably bad 2 for its last 37, but w/ the Flyers ranking just 24th in penalty killing, maybe this is the time to turn things around. During this losing streak, opposing goaltenders have a .968 save percentage against Toronto. That's obviously really high and sooner rather than later the shots have to start finding their way into the back of the net.  Defensively though, I continue to have my doubts. Saturday saw them match a season-high by giving up 45 shots to the Bruins, the third time already in 2016 that they've allowed 40 or more shots in a game. Look for a high-scoring game here. 10* Over Maple Leafs/Flyers

10* Ohio (7:00 ET):  Ohio is off a pretty bad week as they were beaten outright here in Athens, 91-75 by Bowling Green (as 10.5 pt favorites), then fell at Kent State by a score of 89-82 (were 4.5 pt dogs). That makes it three losses in the last four games for the Bobcats (0-4 ATS), who now find themselves in a bit of a hole at the outset of MAC play. But it's not like overcoming a 1-3 SU conference record is insurmountable. Tonight they host a Western Michigan team that treated me quite well on Saturday as they rolled to an 83-69 win over Northern Illinois, but that was their 1st conference win of this campaign. OU takes the court here w/ a little bit of quadruple revenge (0-4 SU/1-3 ATS) on its mind after being swept each of the last two seasons by the Broncos. Lay the points.

Though they lost by double digits the last time they played at home, Ohio actually led the game (against Bowling Green) by five at the break. BG caught fire in the second half, scoring 58 points and the Bobcats couldn't stop fouling as they finished w/ the unusual distinction of attempting fewer free throws (21) than their visiting opponent made (22). That was bad news for the Bobcats, who are fourth in the COUNTRY in FT shooting (77.4%), yet uncharacteristically went 12 of 21 against the Falcons. Saturday at Kent State saw them go an outstanding 20 of 22 from the charity stripe, but again the opponent got more opportunities (36) and that ended up being the difference in the ball game. Simply put, it is very important that the Bobcats get to the FT line with greater regularity than Western Michigan here.

WMU was at home Saturday and pretty much rolled from the start against Northern Illinois as I'd anticipated. But outside of Kalamazoo, things have tended to not go the Broncos' way. They are just 1-7 SU in road/neutral site games this year while averaging only 64.2 points per game (40.4 FG%). That's a far cry from the offensive output we got on Saturday when the team connected on 12 of 26 three-point attempts.  OU, averaging 79.2 points per game this season, is 8-1 SU at home. The home court edge is a big deal in this one and I expect WMU's turnover issues (14.5 per game in MAC play) to haunt them here. 10* Ohio

10* Under Senators/Sharks (10:35 ET):  San Jose is hot right now as the club has won five in a row, four times scoring four or more goals. It all started w/ a dominant 7-0 shutout of Toronto nine days ago, but perhaps the most impressive victory of all came last time out as they downed West-leading Dallas 4-3 here at home. This has been an Over team much of the season (25-15-3 Over in all games), but as I've said before I expect them to start allowing fewer goals on home ice as a collective .894 save percentage here is due to improve. They allow just 26.5 shots per game here at The Tank, but 2.8 goals. Goaltending has improved, however, and a matchup with Ottawa seems likely to be low-scoring. Take the Under.

Ottawa is off an impressive win in their own right, 5-3 over the Kings in the middle game of this five-game trip. This will be their third straight in Southern California and I wouldn't read too much into that win over the team San Jose is looking up at in the Pacific. Prior to beating Los Angeles on Saturday, the Senators had tallied only nine goals total the previous seven games. After scoring four or more goals in their previous game, they are 8-4 Under the next time out.  They were a little lucky to score five times on just 23 shots against LA and actually trailed 3-1 heading into the third period before exploding for four goals in the final 12 minutes. At one point, they scored twice in a 26 second span and then scored the go-ahead goal (on a power play) just five minutes later. The final goal was an empty-netter, so the five goals scored really is somewhat misleading. 

The key to this play will be Ottawa keeping San Jose from finding the back of the net, at least w/ any regularity.  Defensively, the Sens are not good as they rank 27th in the league in goals allowed, 29th on the penalty kill and 30th (last) in shots allowed. The Sharks average 33.0 shots per game here on home ice. It will be most likely Craig Anderson between the pipes for Ottawa tonight and while his goals against average the L3 weeks is higher than you'd like to see, he did stop 31 of 33 San Jose shots in the season's first meeting. Sharks goaltender Martin Jones has a 1.95 GAA during a personal four-game win streak. 10* Under Senators/Sharks

10* Golden State (8:05 ET):  When last year's two NBA finalists rematched on X-Mas Day, I took Cleveland (as a 7-pt underdog) and the end result worked out in my favor as the final score was "only" 89-83 in favor of the Warriors. Now the Cavs get to play host, but the line has shifted too much in my opinion. I would still make the NBA Champs a favorite here, even though they are off a loss (second in three games!) and Cleveland has lost only one time at home all season. The Cavs just completed a long road trip w/ three games in four nights in Texas and having to return home to face the Warriors in the first game back is a "tough ask."  I don't see them holding Golden State to just 89 points again like they did the first time. Take the points.

After winning 36 of their first 38 games, the Warriors have now fallen behind the pace set by Jordan's Bulls exactly 20 years ago. All four losses this season have come on the road. But this will be just the second time all year that they've been an underdog. The only other time was when they were w/o Steph Curry and playing the second game of a back to back (also off a loss) at Houston. They would go on to win that game outright. Despite losing to Denver and Detroit this week, let us not forget what this team has accomplished so far this season. They've still outscored opponents by 11.1 points per game and are +7.4 on the road. I seriously doubt we'll see them shoot as poorly again as they did Saturday in Detroit (36.2 percent) and off their three previous losses the team is 3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS.

Cleveland did just play San Antonio on the road (lost by only four) and then concluded its road trip by holding Houston to just 77 points.  Overall, the Cavs have won nine of 10, but I still see them as a "notch below" both the Spurs and Warriors at this time.  That can certainly change as Kyrie Irving is still working his way back into shape after missing the first two months of the season. It promises to be a spirited crowd Monday night at the Quicken Loans Arena, but LeBron and company are just 13-19 ATS as a favorite this year and I simply do not believe laying points to a fully healthy Warriors squad is wise at this point. 10* Golden State

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET):  Since firing HC Lionel Hollins and GM Billy King, the results have largely remained the same for the Nets, who are by most measures the third worst team in the league (only ahead of the Lakers and Sixers). They did beat the Knicks last Wednesday and I was on them there, but they've since dropped B2B games (both by double digits) to fall to 1-7 SU/ATS their last eight games and 11-30 SU overall for the season. However, tonight I see a little value in them taking double digits against a Toronto team that will be returning home following an extended road trip that saw them play a game in London last Thursday. The Raptors have had the last three days off, but the linesmakers have made them quite unappealing in this spot and I'll take the points.

Brooklyn last played on Saturday and things certainly did not go well in a 114-86 loss in Atlanta. Fortunately for our purposes, it's hard to see them playing any worse here. They have really struggled to defend lately and the Hawks shot better than 55 percent from the field.  But the Nets were better on that end of the floor against Toronto, at home on January 6th, even though they still lost 91-74. Usually you'll see a bit of an uptick, albeit only a temporary one, when a team makes a coaching change.  Save for that win over the Knicks, we've really yet to see that with the Nets.  Getting blown out again here, needless to say, would be a really bad "look." Surprisingly, they are 5-2 ATS (3-4 straight up!) as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points this season.

The Raptors last played at home on January 3rd when they lost outright to the Bulls.  Somewhat surprisingly, they are just 11-6 SU at home this year (8-9 against the spread). Many times, in a team's first game back home following a long trip, they struggle. Toronto has won four straight in spite of their own poor shooting, instead relying on defense and an ability to get to the free throw line. While there's no denying who the better team is here, Toronto is only 9-10 ATS when taking on a team w/ a losing record and this price range is pretty rarefied air for them. This is actually the most points they've been asked to lay in any game this season, even more than when they hosted Philadelphia. 10* Brooklyn

10* Duke (7:00 ET):  The Blue Devils are off B2B outright losses here, first to Clemson and then to Notre Dame.  Clemson has caught the ACC by surprise and the game was on the road, so Coach K and company at least have a little bit of an excuse for going down there. But I was shocked to then see them fall again, here in Durham, to Notre Dame over the weekend. Then again, maybe I shouldn't have been as the Fighting Irish have now beaten Duke four of the last five times they have played due to matching up relatively well as both teams are typically among the nation's best in terms of offensive efficiency. Tonight's opponent, Syracuse, should be far more to the Cameron Crazies' liking. The Orange, though off a shockingly dominant 83-55 win at Wake Forest over the weekend, still average only 71.1 PPG for the season.  Lay the points.

The narrative surrounding Syracuse and its back to back wins will be "Boeheim is back."  The legendary head coach (longest tenured in the country) missed nine games due to suspension and the team really did struggle w/o him, losing five times, three of those coming by double digits. What we saw offensively from the Orange on Saturday though I feel had more to do with how awful Wake Forest has been defensively, not Boeheim or something the 'Cuse is capable of on a regular basis. The Orange made 10 three-pointers plus had 32 points in the paint. But, honestly, it was a better than usual performance on the defensive end that keyed the victory and Wake really helped out by shooting a woeful 32.6 percent for the game, including 2 for 20 on three-pointers.

Duke is far more likely to find success against Syracuse's trademark zone than Wake Forest did.  The Blue Devils come in averaging 86.9 points per game (93.3 at home!) and prior to Notre Dame had not dropped a game here in Cameron Indoor all season. Their average margin of victory here at home is +24.2 PPG thanks to 50.1% overall shooting including 40.9% from three-point range.  Syracuse, which received a season-best 27 points from Trevor Cooney against Wake Forest, simply won't be able to keep pace. They are 2-8 ATS the L3 seasons after topping 80 pts in their previous game. Duke was victimized by a career-best game from an opposing player their last time out, but is 9-2 ATS after allowing 80+ points. They beat the Orange by 19 here at home last year. 10* Duke

8* Portland (2:05 ET):  The Blazers are coming off the most embarrassing loss possible, that being to Philadelphia. Playing in the second game of a back to back, they actually fell behind the Sixers (in Philly) by as many as 31 points in the fourth quarter (were 6 pt favorites!) Saturday night. Though the Sixers had just blown a big lead against Chicago their previous game, few could have predicted that result as Portland actually came in riding a three-game win streak (beat Brooklyn 116-104 the previous night) and does boast the league's highest scoring backcourt tandem in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum (45.1 points per game). That duo combined to shoot just 10 of 36 from the floor Saturday (2 of 12 from 3-pt range) and as a team, the Blazers were just 5 of 29 from behind the arc. I expect a bounce back here. Take the points.

Washington has been quite the disappointment so far this season. With them, I keep coming back to the pledge to play at a faster tempo, a change that has not really worked for the better.  While playing at the league's fifth fastest pace, they are tied for only 14th in offensive efficiency and defensively they have been downright awful, giving up an average of 104.1 PPG for the season. Saturday saw the Wizards drop a home game to Boston, 119-117, as Bradley Beal sat out after making his return from a 16-game absence the previous night in Indiana. Beal is expected to play here, but there are other injuries the team is dealing with right now.  I also don't know how long HC Randy Wittman is for this job.

Portland goes as Lillard goes with the point guard averaging 27.9 PPG in their wins. When he shoots below 38 percent from the field, the team is winless (0-12) w/ him averaging just 18.3 PPG. Coming off the subpar effort in Philadelphia, I expect a return to form here against a poor defensive club. I really don't think that the Wizards deserve to be in this price range against most teams as they actually have a losing SU record (9-12) at home this year. Opponents are shooting nearly 40 percent from three-point range against the Wizards here at home this season. 8* Portland

6* Over 4.5 Rounds Dillashaw vs. Cruz (11:30 ET):  This fight is for the Bantamweight Title (135 lbs) and is a matchup of current vs. former champion. Cruz has fought just one time in four-plus years since being stripped of the title.  His return to the Octagon took place in October and only a minute was required for him to dispatch of Takeya Mizugaki via KO. Meanwhile, Dillashaw defended his title in spectacular fashion the last time we saw him, in July, with a four round domination of challenger Renan Barao that ended in TKO fashion. Despite those previous results, I expect a rather cautious (I hesitate to say "boring") fight here. Styles make fights and these two have very different styles. It will be slow at the outset and end up going to the cards.

Dillashaw, the current champion, has stopped his last three opponents. But Barao accounted for two of those fights and he was an ideal matchup for the champ. Also note that all three of those fights went to the so-called "Championship Rounds" (4th or later). Dillashaw obviously will want to keep this fight standing so that he can utilize his advantage in striking. He has NEVER been taken down in his UFC career. But he could have an issue landing many significant strikes here as Cruz is excellent defensively and rarely gets hit. Dillashaw will have to be wary of being taken down in this fight and thus could have to be a little more defensive than per usual himself.

Cruz's goal conversely will be to take Dillashaw down. When/if he does, however, I seriously doubt he'd be able to finish. Rather, shades of the Demetrious Johnson fight, I expect he'd be content to simply keep the champ grounded and try to win with the judges.  I anticipate Cruz's strategy to lean heavily on the clinch in this fight. The challenger will be looking to extend the fight, no doubt.  Clinching and keeping his opponent grounded is how he won the Johnson fight and looking back 12 of Cruz's 21 career fights have gone to the cards.  That includes four straight before his return in October, all going a full five rounds.  6* Over 4.5 Rounds Dillashaw vs. Cruz

8* Over Mavericks/Spurs (7:05 ET): Something is going to have to give here with San Antonio having gone Over the total in five of their last seven games, but Dallas is 9-2 Under its last 11. Considering the Spurs' historic efficiency rating on defense (allow only 93.6 points per 100 possessions, five points fewer than the #2 team), one might be inclined to expect the Mavs' trend to be the one that continues here, but even though last five matchups between them and the Spurs having stayed Under, I look for this one to sneak past the total. Dallas is coming off B2B very low scoring games where they averaged just 86 points per game. One of those saw them rest starters though. They shot 39% from the field in both games. Even against the top defensive team in the league, I see them improving here. Take the Over.

San Antonio's streak of scoring 100 or more points was halted at nine Thursday as they scored "only" 99 in a come from behind victory over Cleveland. I was on the Under in that one, which ended up being a two-point winner. However, the fact remains the Spurs had scored 100 or more points in 16 of their previous 17 games. They average 105.1 PPG here at home and have not stayed Under 100 in consecutive contests since December 2nd. So like Dallas, they too are due for a scoring increase. They got off to cold start shooting the ball against Cleveland, but remain above 50 percent overall their last five games and above 49 percent for the season. The Mavs allow 101.3 PPG on the road this season, so it has been quite uncharacteristic to see them allow just 95.6 PPG their last five overall on 42.2% shooting. Certainly look for the Spurs to "get theirs" here.

Clearly, the key here will be Dallas scoring enough to help send this one Over the total. The only previous meeting this season was an 88-83 win for the Spurs, not good news, but at least we've seen the O/U line decrease a few points, not to mention significantly from where it was for last season's four meetings. Back in November, these teams both shot right around 41 percent overall and combined to go a woeful 14 of 50 from three-point range. Those numbers certainly can be improved upon. In terms of true shooting, only Golden State has been better this year than San Antonio and both of these teams rank in the top 10 in free throw shooting. 8* Over Mavericks/Spurs

9* Tampa Bay (5:05 ET):  Well, things have quickly "headed South" for previously red-hot Florida, who after a remarkable 12-game run (NHL's longest win streak this season) have predictably regressed. I say "predictably" because the manner in which they were winning was largely unsustainable. Forget about the fact (actually don't!) that their 21 in wins in regulation are on par w/ the rest of the Eastern Conference save for Washington. The Panthers were outshot seven times, often significantly so, during their 12-game win streak. Four of those times saw them finish w/ 18 shots or less for the game and in Wednesday's ugly 6-0 loss at Calgary, they finished with only 15! Don't look now, but here comes the Lightning (winners of four straight), who I believe will get the two points here.

Advanced stats really don't like the Panthers, who despite their first place standing are just 24th in Corsi and 25th in Fenwick.  This is a reflection of their lack of shots, obviously, and over the last five games they are averaging just 20.0 while allowing 31.0! Getting shut out 6-0 while registering only 15 shots is clearly awful regardless of the opponent, but when it's the Flames, you should be downright ashamed! The schedule makers certainly did Florida no favors here as coming off a three-game trek through Western Canada, they are back in the Sunshine State for one more road game. Prior to sweeping a home and home from the Lightning back in November, the Panthers had dropped seven of eight to their division rival, including all four here in Tampa Bay.

After suffering their own loss in Calgary, 3-1 on January 5th, the Lightning have turned things around in somewhat dramatic fashion. They've since won four in a row, three of those coming on the road, while scoring 15 goals in the process. Their dormant offense has been a concern for much of the year (just 15th in goals per game!), but it was only a matter of time before they picked things up.  I point to goalie Ben Bishop, who is 6-1-1 w/ a 2.17 goals against average his L8 starts vs. Florida. Tampa Bay's two losses to the Panthers earlier this year certainly could have gone either way as the first was decided in a shootout after Florida tied the game w/ a power play goal in the final minute of regulation. Then in the rematch, the Lightning held a 39-20 edge in shots That's par for the course with Florida, who has been outshot by double digits five times here in January. 9* Tampa Bay

8* Pittsburgh (4:40 ET): Minus their leading receiver, leading rusher (not to mention Le'Veon Bell) and with what appears to be a limited Ben Roethlisberger, it sure seems as if the Steelers don't even have a "fighting chance" Sunday afternoon in Denver. But to simply write them off would be foolish. There is of course a 34-27 (as seven-point home favorites) regular season win over the Broncos to lean on here. Though there's the change of venue and the fact the Steelers won't be anywhere near full strength, the public's tendency to overreact to injuries makes the pointspread a major factor here as the value is on the visitors. As you might have guessed, this is a large number for the Steelers to be taking. Since taking over in 2007, this is just the third time the Mike Tomlin coached team is getting 7.5 or more points. The last two, both against the Ravens, saw them cover with one outright win. The last instance was 2012. Take the points.

Denver is a historically weak #1 seed. Their point differential of +59 ranked only fifth in the AFC and they were quite fortunate to go 10-3 SU in one-score games during the regular season. For the sake of comparison, Pittsburgh finished w/ a +104 point differential, roughly double that of the Broncos, and they were 4th in the AFC in point differential (Patriots, Bengals, Chiefs all better).  Since 2002, there has been only one other #1 seed to have a point differential below +100 and that was the '03 Eagles, who did not make the Super Bowl.  Peyton Manning's return is being hailed as some sort of "saving grace" in some circles, but I have my doubts as he had - by far - the worst season of his career before getting hurt. There is no guarantee that Manning will be any kind of significant upgrade over Brock Osweiler, if he is even an upgrade at all. Since winning his only Super Bowl in 2007, Manning is just 4-7 SU in the playoffs including a pair of "one and done's" w/ the Broncos.

Roethlisberger is the ONLY QB this year to throw for 300+ yards against this Broncos defense. Far from 100% and w/o Antonio Brown, it is unlikely that we will see a repeat performance. But I do believe he'll be able to do enough to at least keep his team within the number.  Manning is operating behind a very suspect offensive line, so let us not discount the impact the Steelers' defense can have in this game. Playing their last three games all on the road, this unit has given up an average of just 16 points per game and forced eight turnovers the L2 weeks. While the narrative and circumstances surrounding last week's Wild Card win in Cincinnati deem Pittsburgh to be somewhat "lucky," they led that game 15-0 in the fourth quarter and allowed only 279 yds for the game. I look for a relatively low-scoring affair here and because of that, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Drake (4:00 ET):  This line looks a little bit curious, no? Southern Illinois comes in at 15-3 SU (7-1 on the road!), but are laying just a short number to a Drake team that has lost five in a row (just 5-12 SU for the season), four of those coming by double digits. For a lot of people, I think the natural inclination would be to back the short road favorite, but as regular readers/clients will tell you, I'm not "most people."  I see some value with Drake here as SIU has been favored in only four of its last nine games and three of those times they did not cover. That includes an ugly outright loss to SIU-Edwardsville plus a non-cover last time out vs. Illinois State. Drake has not shot the ball well of late, but remains at 51.2 percent from the field at home for the year. Take the points.

Drake played its last two games on the road and was blown out both times, first by Northern Iowa and then by Evansville. They are now the only team in the Missouri Valley w/o a league win after both Bradley and Loyola pulled upsets in their last games. Despite the 0-5 start in MVC play, the Bulldogs are still only being outscored by 2.5 points per game on the season. Their scoring average has dipped to an awful 57.4 PPG in conference play, but that number is only going to go up as they had to face both Wichita State and Northern Iowa on the road and were held to only 91 points total. This is a team that stayed w/ Iowa (lost by only six) on a neutral floor last month. 

Two of Southern Illinois' losses this season were close - by five (UTEP) and two (SIU-Edwardsville). But overall, the Salukis have excelled in close games this season w/ six wins by five points or less, including five of them by three points or less. Their "luck" is eventually bound to run out and there is the fact they were blown out on their own floor, 83-58, by Wichita State just two games ago. Tuesday vs. Illinois State, they trailed by as many as 12 in the second half before rallying back and winning the game on a three-pointer w/ just 24 seconds left.  The home team won both meetings between these two last season and I see Drake possessing what is the great equalizer if you're an underdog and that's three-point shooting. The Bulldogs are 43.4 percent for the year from behind the arc at home. Look them to regain their "lost" shooting touch in this upset bid. 8* Drake

10* Seattle (1:05 ET):  To me, this is the most anticipated NFL game of the season. In "one corner," you have the 15-1 Panthers, who already own a victory over the Seahawks in the regular season (in Seattle). In the other, you have the two-time defending NFC Champs, who are clearly playing much better right now than they were back in Week 6 when they hosted Carolina (were just 2-4 SU following the 27-23 loss).  It should be pointed out that in the regular season meeting Seattle led 23-14 in the fourth quarter before wilting late. It also should be pointed out that #1 seeds laying three points or less in the Divisional Round are 0-5 ATS since 1990 w/ four outright losses!  The Seahawks will remember this situation quite well as they covered in Atlanta (as 2.5-pt dogs) three years ago in a game they should have won. This time they close the deal and likely win outright. But take the points.

Regular readers/clients will recall that I actually went AGAINST Seattle last week in Minnesota. That had a lot to do w/ the unfavorable conditions (weather), plus laying that many points on the road in the playoffs isn't necessarily the best idea.  Some will be willing to tab the Seahawks' 10-9 victory over the Vikings as "lucky" seeing as kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip shot. But "luck" has rarely gone Seattle's way this year as they entered the postseason w/ a 2-5 SU record in games decided by one score. That was easily the worst mark among the 12 playoff teams. Carolina, for the sake of comparison, is 7-1 SU in one-score games. So, I'd make the argument that "luck" was bound to start going the Seahawks way. At the same time, it's also bound to start going AGAINST Carolina, who is also a league-best +20 in turnover margin. Seattle has given the ball away the third fewest number of times in the league and quite frankly I'm glad last week's game went the way it did as the result ensured there would still be some value on them this week. 

While the Panthers have the flashy record, three of their last five games were decided by seven points or less, including their lone loss (at Atlanta) and two wins by a field goal. On defense, there is a concern at cornerback across from Josh Norman as two injuries have them relying on the combination of Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan. Expect the Seattle offense to exploit this. The Seahawks are third in the league in rushing yards and it looks like they'll be getting a fresh Marshawn Lynch back. That's a very big deal. So too is the fact they lead the league in scoring defense (17.3 PPG allowed) for the year and in the last six road games they've given up just ONE touchdown and an average of just over 200 yards per game. Pete Carroll is 4-1 ATS as an underdog the L3 seasons and 6-1 SU when seeking revenge for a loss.  10* Seattle

10* Under Flames/Oilers (10:05 ET):  The Battle of Alberta is renewed for a fourth time this season and each of the previous three matchups have gone Over the total. The winning side has scored exactly five goals in every game, but that amount of scoring is somewhat uncharacteristic for both teams as neither is really known for its scoring prowess.  That being said, Calgary is off a real stunner - 6-0 over Florida - but needless to say I don't see them duplicating that amount of offense here as they average just 2.3 goals per game on the road. Edmonton, who ranks 25th in the league in goals per game, has averaged just 1.6 their last five games and has topped three only one time in a miserable 2-5-3 stretch. Take the Under.

The number of goals Calgary has allowed this season remains a concern as they rank dead last on a per game basis and are 30th as well on the penalty kill. But none of that was an issue Wednesday vs. Florida as they shut the Panthers out while allowing only 15 shots. In fact, the Flames have allowed just 33 shots - total - the last two games. The performance in goal that they received from Jonas Hiller Wednesday was a far cry from what we saw Monday from Kari Ramo, who allowed five goals on just 18 shots against San Jose. It looks like Hiller may be called back into duty tonight, but even if it's Ramo, I'm not concerned as he'd actually turned in a 1.01 goals against average his previous three starts. The Under is 11-5 this season in Calgary road games if the total is 5.5.

Edmonton, meanwhile, is still searching for ways to score. They managed just one goal against San Jose and have only 24 their last 14 games. These teams have met eight times over the course of the last two seasons and the winning side has scored at least four goals every time. Calgary is a perfect 6-0 its last six visits here. But I don't see tonight's game being nearly as high scoring as previous meetings. The Flames have scored 10 goals over their last two games, but a third consecutive strong offensive showing is quite unlikely. If there's one thing that the Oilers can lean on here, it's the strong play of Cam Talbot (1.90 GAA L10) between the pipes. 10* Under Flames/Oilers

8* Green Bay (8:15 ET): I have to say that it was certainly nice to see the "old" Aaron Rodgers back as the Packers rolled to a 35-18 win and cover over Washington in the Wild Card round. I was on the Pack and after they fell behind early (11-0), the math doesn't lie as they really did dominate the game. While some of that is attributable to the woeful Washington defense, it did seem as if Rodgers was as comfortable as he's been in weeks.  The running game also picked up w/ 123 yards in the second half alone. Arizona's defense, we know will certainly present a greater challenge, but I feel as if the absence of Tyrann Mathieu (aka "the Honey Badger") isn't being discussed enough. I'll call for a little bit of a "carryover" from last week for Rodgers and company and take the points.

Now you probably recall how the Cardinals absolutely decimated the Packers on this very field just three weeks ago. The final score was 38-8 and even that somewhat undersells just what a beatdown that game was. Arizona finished w/ a 381-178 edge in total yards and it was Rodgers' worst day as a pro - both statistically and in terms of margin of defeat. It should be noted that two Cardinals touchdowns did come on fumble returns, however. If Green Bay is looking for a source to draw inspiration from, they need to look no further than last week's Seattle-Minnesota Wild Card Game, which was a rematch of a one-sided regular season game that ended up much closer than expected. Green Bay is at the disadvantage of being the road team for a second time, but is 8-1-1 ATS as a January underdog.  Teams seeking revenge for a regular season loss of 30+ pt loss in the playoffs are a surprising 7-11 straight up and even better against the spread.

This is also just the second time since 2011 that Rodgers and the Packers have been an underdog of at least seven points. The only other time was last year's NFC Championship, a game they easily covered (I took them!) and should have won straight up. I'm not a fan of the term "momentum" by any means, but while there's no denying that Green Bay's confidence is "up" following last week's performance, Arizona's may be a little shaken after getting punched in the mouth by Seattle in the regular season finale (lost 36-6). Finally, don't forget about the underrated Green Bay defense I talked about last week. This unit allows only 20.1 points per game. They've allowed more than that just three times in the last 14 games!  8* Green Bay

10* Under Packers/Cardinals (8:15 ET):  While Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense seemed to receive the majority of the accolades in last week's 35-18 Wild Card win over Washington, I'd like to reiterate what I said about the team's defense in my analysis for that matchup. This is a group that is allowing only 20.1 points per game for the year and really coming into its own. Only three times in the last 14 games have they allowed more than that season-long average! This is a pretty high total for a playoff game and Green Bay is 2-0 Under this season when the O/U is 50 pts or higher, including their regular season meeting with the Cardinals where Rodgers played the worst game of his entire career.  Take the Under.

Now, I obviously anticipate Saturday night's game being a lot closer than the regular season matchup, which was won by Arizona 38-8.  But it needs to be discussed just how much the Arizona defense dominated that game. They held Rodgers to his second lowest QBR (ESPN stat) of his career and the Packers offense to just 178 yards total. Rodgers was sacked nine times (!) and the Cardinals forced five fumbles (recovered three), returning two of them for touchdowns. Prior to scoring their lone touchdown of the game (in the third quarter), Green Bay's first seven drives (excluding kneel down at the end of the first half) all ended w/ a punt or a turnover and none of them went for more than 27 yards. Four went for six yards or less.

Arizona scored two defensive touchdowns in that 38-8 win, so take those away and there's really little reason to like the Over here, particularly w/ such a high O/U line. Green Bay was held to 17 points or less in six of its final 13 regular season contests. Rodgers won't have to deal with Tyrann Mathieu here, but I wouldn't look for a repeat of last week's 35-point performance either.  Washington's porous defense was an ideal matchup for them as the Redskins ranked 25th against the pass and 26th against the run.  It's unlikely that we will see the Packers run for 141 yds again like they did last week. Arizona's defense ranks 8th against the pass and 6th against the run. However, Green Bay's defense will be able to keep them in this one.  Interesting is the fact that the public has been pounding the Over here, but the number has remained relatively unchanged. I think that 24 points is a realistic expectation for the winning side. 10* Under Packers/Cardinals

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET):  Despite an outright win here at home over Atlanta (as a 3-pt dog) earlier in the week, the Hornets remain a solid value tonight, even as a favorite. Milwaukee played last night and while they ended up with a nice win themselves over the Hawks, the game did go into overtime. The Bucks actually trailed by as many as 11, at home, so it wasn't nearly as impressive as what Charlotte did to Atlanta, which was win by 23. Now the Hornets also played last night and lost - by two - at New Orleans as Anthony Davis won the game on a dunk w/ just two seconds left. Despite it being their eighth loss in the last nine games, my personal power rankings suggest that this line should be closer to double digits. Lay the points.

The Bucks are not a good road team. They've gone 5-18 SU away from home while being outscored by 9.6 points per game. While the team has covered four of its last five overall, they dropped both road games during that span, straight up. Defense is an issue here as Milwaukee gives up 105.6 PPG on the road. However, it was a lack of offense that burned them in their previous visit to Charlotte this season. They were held to just 82 points - their second lowest total in any game this season. While the Bucks still covered (were +6.5), it was the eighth time in the last nine matchups with the Hornets that they came out on the short end of the stick. Defense is typically not a concern for Charlotte as they are allowing just 97.9 PPG here at home.

Though both teams played last night, I believe that fatigue will be more of a factor of Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo may have grabbed a career-high 16 rebounds last night, but he played a career-high 50 minutes as well. For the third straight game, Khris Middleton played more than 40 minutes. Being the road team puts the Bucks at an even greater disadvantage. Charlotte is a strong 14-7 SU at home this season and a perfect 3-0 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. With Nic Batum back in the lineup, their rotation isn't quite as strained as the Bucks is right now. The Hornets actually outscored the Pelicans in three of the four quarters last night. Only two of their players logged more than 30 minutes.  The situation definitely favors them here. 10* Charlotte

10* Western Michigan (7:00 ET):  This is yet another classic situation where we "buy low" on a team coming off an outright loss as a favorite while at the same time "sell high" on the opponent which is coming off a SU win as a dog.  Western Michigan, as a three-point home favorite, lost to Ball State on Tuesday. It was their third consecutive loss and the second in a row where they shot quite poorly. In addition to finishing the game at only 36.5% from the field, they allowed Ball State to connect on a 51.9% clip.  Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is off a somewhat notable upset of Toledo as 6.5-point dogs. They are the only team in the MAC w/o a conference loss (14-2 SU overall), but the Huskies are due to fall. Lay a very short number.

Historically speaking, this game being in Kalamazoo is a huge edge for WMU. Northern Illinois has won just ONE time here since 1997 (in 17 tries). While only 5-3 SU at home this year, WMU is averaging 82.1 points per game here. That's a little skewed due to a blowout of a non-board team (Marygrove), but note this team has suffered a number of close losses w/ most of them coming here at University Arena. The Broncos are 2-6 SU this season in games decided by six points or less w/ a trio of three-point home losses to Kent State (in overtime), IUPUI-Ft Wayne (also in OT) and Mercer.  Simply put, they are long overdue to have one "go their way." Considering they've won 10 of 11 overall against NIU, now seems like that time.

This will be NIU's second road game of the week, always a tough spot, and made tougher by the fact that WMU is playing its second straight home game. I think the line speaks volumes here considering the respective records.  Northern Illinois has benefited greatly from poor shooting by their opponents this season (just 37.6% overall) but they themselves haven't shot well outside of DeKalb (36.5% overall). They were better than that against Toledo on Tuesday, but Western Michigan is connecting at a 46.6% clip here at home this season. Again, this is a classic case of perception not being reality and I have the Broncos rolling to a much deserved win and cover. 10* Western Michigan

10* Vanderbilt (6:00 ET):  I think it's safe to say that Vandy is a team that has not performed up to expectations thus far. The Commies are just 9-7 SU with six of those losses coming in the last nine games. Yet, somewhat surprisingly, they still own a 7-3 ATS record as a favorite after a 75-57 beatdown of Auburn earlier this week. This team is absolutely better than its record shows as they have a +20.6 PPG scoring margin here at home. Having big man Luke Kornet back in the fold now makes them all the more dangerous. He delivered a triple double Tuesday (w/ 10 blocks!). I think its important to remember that this Vandy team was picked to finish second in the SEC this year. Despite what looks like a big number to lay, this is actually a "buy low" spot on the Commodores.

Alabama comes in fresh off an upset of previously undefeated South Carolina.  That of course only serves to inflate their own value. The Crimson Tide is having quite the week, but a 23-point win as four-point home underdogs usually is a clear signal that a letdown spot is on the horizon. The fact that South Carolina was one of just two unbeatens left in the country was a surprise, but the fact is that the Gamecocks came out somewhat flat on Wednesday and shot only 35.8% for the game including an awful 3 of 18 from three-point range. At the same time, the Tide opened the game by making their first seven attempts from behind the arc and finished 13 of 28. Bama has been fortunate so far this season in the sense that all five games they've played against ranked teams have come in Tuscaloosa. Note that early in the season, they were destroyed (by 32!) at Dayton. They are averaging just 59.2 PPG away from home.

Vandy had lost three in a row prior to blowing out Auburn. However, all three losses and for that matter all but one of the team's losses this year have been close. The one exception came at Purdue. Alabama is a team they beat twice last year. Again, looking at the numbers, it's hard to see how this team is only 9-7 straight up. They are shooting 47.1% from the field this season (40.2% from three-point range) and both of those numbers go up here at Memorial Gyn. At the same time, they are holding opponents to just 37% overall shooting including 27% from three-point range.  10* Vanderbilt

10* New England (4:30 ET):  Kansas City thoroughly dominated last week in a 30-0 win over Houston. But despite that lopsided final score, I really wasn't that impressed with the Chiefs performance. I say that objectively speaking, not as a bitter Texans backer. Total yardage was "only" 314-226 in favor of KC and first downs were only 18-14. The game was largely decided on five turnovers by Houston QB Brian Hoyer, who turned in one of the absolute worst playoff performances in the history of his position.  Watching the game live, you couldn't help but think Hoyer's continued presence on the field all but guaranteed his team losing. In my analysis for the game, I wrote how instrumental turnovers had been during this 11-game run by the Chiefs and sure enough they are now +18 in that department for the year.Tom Brady is obviously a huge step up from Hoyer and interestingly enough, the Patriots have given the ball away fewer times (14) than any other team in the league! I see KC's 30th ranked pass offense having trouble keeping up in this one and it's notable this will be just the second time they have been an underdog in these last 11 games. Lay the points.

The challenge of facing Brady is exacerbated by the fact this is a home game for New England. Over the last three seasons, the Pats are 25-2 straight up in Foxboro and 17-7-1 against the spread. Getting them in this price range is pretty rare and a great value. Since 2010, the team is 24-3 SU and 19-7-1 ATS laying seven or less at home (Note: I had originally published a SU/ATS record of NE laying seven or less in ALL games, not just at home). The last three seasons, they are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 pts.

The Patriots did end the regular season w/ B2B losses. But both were on the road and against division opponents.  Throw in that they were dominated LY in Arrowhead (41-14 loss - "We're on to Cincinnati.") and New England should be supremely motivated here.  Bill Belichick is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when off B2B SU losses as a favorite. Brady will have his favorite weapon - Julian Edelman - back for this game. Meanwhile, the Kansas City offense's top receiving threat, Jeremy Maclin, has a high ankle sprain. Don't discount this Patriots defense, which ranks in the top 10 in scoring and yards allowed. Kansas City has not been an underdog since Week 10 when Peyton Manning imploded and turned the ball over multiple times. I'll say it again: the Chiefs struggle when they aren't forcing turnovers. 10* New England

9* Arizona (2:05 ET):  It's an early start time for the 'Yotes due to the Cardinals game taking place Saturday night. While I won't be "giving away" who I like in the football game here, I can tell you that I think Arizona sports fans will be happy prior to kickoff as the hockey club should come away with an easy two points this afternoon. They'll be hosting New Jersey, a team that regular readers/clients will remember that I just played against Thursday night when they were shut out in Colorado (3-0). That was the Devils' fifth loss in their last six games and they have scored two goals or less in all six. Offense is always the issue for New Jersey, so w/ Arizona's own offensive numbers being quite respectable here at home, I'm on them.

Now the Coyotes too are off a loss, theirs coming to Detroit by a score of 3-2 Thurs night. But prior to that, they'd posted B2B victories here at home, scoring exactly four goals in both victories. In fact, the loss to the Red Wings snapped a four-game winning streak. That loss came in overtime, so it continued a streak that has seen the 'Yotes pick up at least a point in 13 of their last 15 games, including seven straight. They are 9-2-4 during that stretch and as I alluded to above, their offensive numbers have noticeably picked up as they've scored a total of 47 goals. For the season, Arizona ranks seventh in the league in goals per game w/ 2.8 and here at home they are averaging 3.2.  This is a revenge spot w/ the 'Yotes having lost in New Jersey (3-2) very early in the season.

The Coyotes' biggest issue when looking at YTD numbers is that they rank 28th in goals against. But the emergence of Louis Domingue between the pipes has ailed them in that department as the netminder has turned in 1.76 goals against average his last five starts while going 4-0-1. This matchup here is an ideal one for Arizona as New Jersey is second to last in the league in scoring (2.16 goals per game) and last in shots (24.6 per game).  Thursday's shutout loss in Colorado actually saw the Devils produce their second highest shot total of 2016 (still only 27), but leaves them w/ just six goals total in the last six games and they're 0 for 15 on the power play. The team leader in points (Michael Cammalleri) remains out and is one of seven players that have missed time on this road trip. After squandering a two-goal lead against Detroit, I see the Coyotes bouncing back here. 9* Arizona

8* Marquette (2:00 ET):  Xavier still only has one loss, though it was an ugly one New Year's Eve when I decided to go against them and lay the points with Villanova (lost by 31!). Since the New Year, the 7th ranked Musketeers have gone 3-0 straight up, twice delivering a double digit victory at home. But the one road game was a little closer than expected and that was against lowly St. John's. In fact, one could argue that none of Xavier's performances in "true" road games since destroying Michigan early in the year have been impressive. Not only did they beat a bad St. John's team by just six points (laying 15), as mentioned earlier they were crushed by Villanova and they were also lucky to get by Wake Forest (trailed by as many as 18). I see this game at Marquette being a bigger challenge than expected. Take the points.

Now a case could be made that Marquette should feel pretty fortunate to be 12-5 SU right now. They are a perfect 6-0 straight up in games decided by six points or less since losing the season opener to Belmont, 85-83, and that includes their own narrow win over St. John's here at home. By not covering the spread in that game, the Golden Eagles are now a lousy 12-28 ATS their L40 home games, including 2-8 this season. They are off a 15-point loss at Villanova, but let us not forget this is a team that owns outright upsets on the road over Providence, LSU and Wisconsin. This will be the first time all season that they have taken points at home and I'm sure the players remember last year's ugly 64-44 home loss to Xavier as they were held to 34.6% shooting including 3 of 15 from three-point range. I'm calling for a bounce back in this spot. 

Against Villanova, Marquette actually led at the half despite trailing by as many as 16 early on in the game. They did manage to cover as big 18-point underdogs. Offensively, they should be able to hang w/ Xavier here as they average 81.3 points per game here at home.  Much will be made of the fact that the Musketeers are getting back starting PG Edmond Sumner.  But news like that often serves to inflate the number and that's what we have here.  Xavier has most likely reached its apex and I really don't see them climbing any higher than they already are. Marquette, despite what happened against 'Nova earlier in the week, seems to be getting a little better. They are 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year, taking four of those games outright. They have the kind of size up front that can give Xavier all sorts of trouble. 8* Marquette

10* Under Stars/Ducks (10:05 ET): Betting Dallas (the league's top scoring team) Under the total probably should be done at one's own peril, but the fact is that they're matched up with the 30th ranked (i.e. last!) scoring team in the league here, that being Anaheim, so something has to give.  The Ducks treated me well the last time they hit the ice as they rolled to a 4-1 victory over Ottawa w/ a 38-25 edge in shots. Considering Anaheim gives up the 6th fewest number of goals per game in the league and is #1 on the penalty kill, don't be surprised if they hold the high-powered Stars in check. Of course, their only issue is the fact they have been held to three regulation goals or less in six of their last eight games. Take the Under.

Save for a wild game vs. Toronto (where ironically they were shut out), Anaheim has done a great job at limiting the number of shot attempts by their opponents recently. Wednesday's win marked the sixth time in the last eight games that they allowed 25 or fewer and of course it helps when you have strong goaltending as well.  Lately, it's been mostly AHL callup John Gibson between the pipes, but Wednesday saw Frederik Andersen make his first start since New Year's Day and he was just as solid. Andersen has a 1.76 goals against average his L4 starts and a .925 save percentage here at home for the season. Dallas comes in having scored just five goals its last three games and is 2 for its last 34 on the power play. Considering Anaheim's penalty kill, which is 89.8 percent for the year and hasn't allowed a PP goal since December 27th, plus the fact they've allowed just 14 non-shootout goals the L9 games, I do not expect the Stars to turn things around here.

We all know that the big question mark w/ Dallas is their defense/goaltending, but fortunately for them this is somewhat of an ideal matchup. I already mentioned that Anaheim is last in the league in goals per game.  They are also 5-2 Under after scoring four goals or more their previous game. For the season, the Under is 21-12-9 in all Anaheim games and this is a rare (sixth) time where the O/U line is 5.5 for one of their home games. 10* Under Stars/Ducks

10* Miami (9:05 ET):  A trip out West has been unkind to the Heat as they've dropped three of four, the only win coming at the expense of an awful Phoenix team. Before this trip got underway, no team had played fewer road games this season than had Miami (only 12!). But, at least as far as the last two games are concerned, it's been a high quality of opponent that they've faced (Warriors, Clippers). That will not be the case here as they continue the trek in Denver, facing a Nuggets team that will be in a clear letdown spot coming off its shocking win over Golden State the other night. Despite that win, Denver remains one of the worst teams in the league and they are 3-7 ATS coming off a SU win as an underdog. Lay the short number.

Defensively, this game shapes up as a mismatch. Prior to the start of this road trip, only San Antonio, who is on a historic pace (see yday's analysis for Cavs-Spurs - I had the Under), had been more efficient than Miami at that end of the court.  The Heat allow just 95.5 points per game, so the last two games have seen them give up far more than they typically allow, but that's predictable considering the opponents they faced.  Denver shocked everyone w/ the 112-110 win over the Warriors on Wednesday. But consider that in their three games previous, they had been averaging just 85.7 points per game! Getting back to defense, the Nuggets are bottom six in terms of efficiency and allow 104.3 PPG here at home.

Denver has won three of its last four, but every win has been by four points or fewer.  Remember when this team had one of the strongest home court edges in the league? That's not the case anymore as they are just 7-11 straight up in the Pepsi Center and 6-11 against the spread. Somehow they beat the Warriors despite shooting only 42.5 percent from the field (were 5 for 22 from three-point range!). Lately, their shooting has been poor (39.5% L4 games), so it's very surprising that they've been able to win multiple games. They have benefited from their opponents not shooting well either (39.9% L4 games) and by dominating the glass. But Miami shoots the ball pretty well (46.1% overall) and is just as strong on the glass as the Nuggets are (teams are roughly equal in rebound rate). I look for them (the Heat) to bounce back. 10* Miami

10* Minnesota (7:05 ET):  The T'wolves are in a really bad way right now as they've lost eight in a row (and 12 of their last 13!), but because this is a rare national TV appearance for them, I don't think that motivation will be any kind of issue. There are also signs of them slowly but surely turning things around. This is actually the second game of a home and home between them and the Thunder and while OKC won the first meeting (in Minnesota), it was the T'wolves leaving "with the cash" as 10.5-pt underdogs (only lost by five). Both teams then had to play the following night.  Minnesota covered again, this time as 7.5-pt dog in Houston (lost by only three) while OKC absolutely crushed Dallas, 108-89, taking advantage of the fact that the Mavs were resting starters (had lost in OT the previous night). I say take the points yet again w/ a desperate Minnesota team that has been much better on the road than at home this year.

While a disastrous 4-17-1 ATS at home, on the road the T'wolves are a very respectable 12-6 ATS, not to mention 7-11 straight up. It's a matter of taking more points obviously, something that is of great benefit to a team that's been averaging only 92.0 PPG its last five. But they did score 104 the other night in Houston and average 101.7 PPG for the year away from home. Oklahoma City isn't great defensively (allowing 100.8 PPG at home) and this is a big number they're being asked to lay here. I was on Minnesota in that first matchup three days ago and remember in the analysis I talked about how poor the Thunder have been against the spread when favored. They're now 14-21 vs. the number in that role and have the worst overall ATS record in the league. That includes 4-14 when facing a team w/ a losing record.

Minnesota did fall behind by as many as 18 on Tuesday, but a strong finish had them easily inside the number by game's end. What they need to do here is take more three-pointers. They are last in the league in attempts from behind the arc.  Oklahoma City has really benefited from some poor shooting by their opponents (41.6 percent overall) their last seven games, but the T'wolves were above that on Tuesday and then even a little sharper in Houston. The Thunder, just 4-10 ATS this year when off a double digit win, are overvalued in this spot. 10* Minnesota

8* Fairfield (7:00 ET):  I'm not sure what happened to the Stags in the second half in Monday's 86-74 home loss to Monmouth. They led going into the half - by seven - but then the Hawks couldn't miss, outscoring them 46-27 the rest of the way. It was the three point shot in particular that doomed Fairfield as Monmouth was 12 of 24 for the game from behind the arc. The Stags actually made 12 three-pointers themselves (on 29 attempts) and shot 50% overall. But curiously, they got to the FT line one LESS time than their opponent, which is odd when you're at home. Despite some recent defensive issues, I look for the Stags to bounce back tonight as they're at home again. They haven't dropped B2B games since opening the season 0-3, a stretch that included a game at North Carolina. Lay the points.

Niagara, on the other hand, is off a very different kind of result than Fairfield. They upset Manhattan on Saturday, 55-53 as 2.5-pt dogs, on a last second tip-in. Even more fortunate for the Purple Eagles there is the fact that Manhattan's final attempt - a three-pointer which went in - came after the final buzzer had sounded. That upset came on the heels of another two point win where Niagara was again the dog as they beat St. Peter's 63-61, a game in which they led almost the whole way, save for 30 seconds late in the second half. But both of those wins came at home for the Purple Eagles. On the road, they are a pretty woeful 1-9 straight up and as you can tell they don't score much, averaging just 62.8 PPG for the year.

This is a double revenge spot for Fairfield, who lost both meetings LY vs. Niagara, which were decided by a total of three points. There is no doubt that the Stags come in as the better team this year, particularly offensively as they are averaging 81.1 PPG here at home where they are 5-2 SU for the season. Prior to pulling those B2B upsets, Niagara was just 3-12 (SU) overall. While they've done well as an underdog (9-2 ATS) this year, the fact is this line is too short as Fairfield should bounce back from a tough defeat and gain a measure of revenge for last season. 8* Fairfield

10* Under Oilers/Sharks (10:35 ET): Much to my chagrin, the Oilers last game went Over the total (I had the Under) as they lost 4-3 in overtime to Arizona. For the Coyotes, that was a receipt for an Edmonton victory by the same score just ten days earlier. It was also the Oilers seventh loss in the last nine games overall. In eight of those games, they have scored three goals or less. Now they have to hit the road to play a San Jose team that has scored 16 goals in its last three games alone. While this obviously doesn't sound like a very ideal matchup for the road team, I look for a low-scoring affair as the Sharks recent form on the offensive end of the ice can't possibly hold. For whatever reason, they have a very low shooting percentage at home. Take the Under.

Having Cam Talbot, and not Anders Nilsson, in net tonight should give Edmonton a fighting chance. Nilsson has been terrible of late and was the one between the pipes in the loss to Arizona the other night. He has a save percentage of .862 his L4 starts. Meanwhile, Talbot is at a far better .922 w/ a 1.78 goals against average.  He faced only 14 shots in his last start (against Florida) and also recently turned in a 29-save shutout of Carolina. Naturally, the Under has been a better bet w/ him in goal as compared to Nilsson. Nilsson was the one in goal the last time these teams met and allowed three goals on 30 shots. I expect Talbot to do better.

The Oilers actually won that last meeting, 4-3, at home.  But I wouldn't be expecting them to score four times on only 23 shots again here. On the road this season, the team is averaging only 2.0 goals per game. San Jose has gotten much better goaltending of late as Alex Stalock stopped 21 of 22 shots Tuesday in Winnipeg. Martin Jones (tonight's likely starter) has a .917 save percentage his L4 starts as well. It's been surprising to see the Sharks allow so many goals at home this year as they are allowing just 26.1 shots per game.  This should be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Oilers/Sharks

9* Colorado (9:05 ET):  The Avalanche were shut out in their last game, 4-0 by suddenly surging Tampa Bay. That followed another ugly loss (6-3), again to a red-hot team (Chicago). Those results were a drastic departure from what the Avs had done the three game previous, which is win every time out while scoring four or more goals. Tonight, they welcome in a New Jersey team whose issue all year has been getting shots on net (league-low average of 24.5 per game), so provided the Avs can regain their lost offensive touch, they should be in good shape here. The Devils have lost four of their last five, including 5-2 at St. Louis Tuesday night, and that stretch has seen their offense possibly hit its nadir w/ just 1.2 goals scored per game on an average of 20.6 shots. I shouldn't need to tell you that's just awful.

Colorado ranks 8th in the league in goal per game (2.8), so if they hit their average the Devils are unlikely to keep up. Against the Lightning, it was just "one of those nights" as they were held to just 21 shots and shut out. But even after that performance, the Avs are still averaging over 30 shots per game their last five and that's a good number to have when facing New Jersey. They already beat the Devils last month, 2-1, despite a 28-25 disadvantage in shots. That improved their record to 8-0-1 the past nine meetings. The fact that the Avs are somewhat poor defensively shouldn't be that big of an issue here. New Jersey actually went 17 minutes of game time w/o a shot Tuesday night in St. Louis!

The Devils just lean far too hard on Corey Schneider, which has been the case now for several seasons. This is a team that has gone seven consecutive games w/o scoring a power play goal & is just 29th in goals per game. It's pretty shocking that they have been able to post a winning record on the road (12-8-2). Just as surprising is that Colorado is only 9-10-3 on home ice.  Those 13 home losses are second most in the league (Buffalo has the most), tied w/ Columbus, Boston .... and New Jersey! That's not to make a case for New Jersey here, but rather I'm pointing out that the Avs are likely due to start playing better here at the Pepsi Center. 9* Colorado

8* Arizona (9:00 ET): Arizona drew somewhat of a "short straw" as they opened Pac 12 play w/ three consecutive road games, the last two of which resulted in narrow losses. Last Thursday saw them rally back from a 14-point second half deficit at UCLA, only to lose on a Bryce Alford three-pointer w/ 1.8 seconds remaining. Two days later, the dreaded second road game in three nights became even more of a challenge as the Wildcats game at USC went to four overtimes and ended up 103-101 not in their favor. Still ranked 18th in the country, I expect Sean Miller's team to bounce back tonight in their long-awaited return to Tucson. They are an incredible 44-0 straight up here at the McKale Center the L3 seasons (nation's longest home win streak), winning by an impressive average of 22.2 points per game. Lay the number.

Now you might be concerned about laying double digits to a Washington team that's 3-0 SU in Pac 12 play, especially considering Arizona is now w/o its star freshman Allonzo Trier. But, make no mistake about it, this is a case of "buying low" on Arizona and "selling high" on Washington. The latter may be unbeaten in conference play so far, but all three wins have been by four points or less and two went to overtime. The other saw them rally back from a 22-point deficit, at home, against USC.  So the Huskies could just as easily be 0-3 SU in three games where they were a slight dog each time.  Despite all the OT periods, defense still has to be a concern for this team. They have allowed at least 83 pts in five of their last six games, one of those being an outright loss to Oakland as 11-pt home favorites. 

Arizona had been allowing just 61.3 PPG prior to conference play getting underway and I expect them to "tighten the screws" now that they're back at home. Washington has been able to get away w/ some pretty lousy shooting this year (just 38.5% from the field in conference play), particularly from three-point range when they're away from home (29.4%). But that won't be the case here.  'Zona destroyed them last year, up in Seattle, winning by 24 points as 11-pt chalk. Due to recent form, the favorite comes in greatly undervalued for this one. 8* Arizona

8* Louisville (9:00 ET):  After rolling through non-conference play w/ the best scoring differential in the country, Rick Pitino's Louisville team has struggled a bit of late. It started the day after X-Mas, in the final non-conference game of the year, a two-point loss to Kentucky. The final score there somewhat undersells how poorly the Cardinals played as they trailed by double digits in the second half and it bears mentioning that UK is clearly "down" this year. L'ville rebounded w/ B2B close victories to open ACC play, but then lost again Sunday, this time at Clemson, 66-62 as seven-point favorites. But that loss no longer looks as bad after the Tigers beat Duke yday. Welcoming in a Pitt team that's off a SU win as an underdog (over Notre Dame), I feel all the value is on the Cardinals tonight. Lay the points.

In 11 home games, L'ville has outscored its opponents by a whopping 32.2 points per game. Granted, there's some pretty weak competition mixed in there. But that's still really impressive scoring differential to own and following five consecutive ATS defeats, I look for the Cards to get back to business here in a battle of ranked teams.  The team had an "off-shooting" day against Clemson on Sunday as they were just 35.3 percent from the field (3 for 23 from 3pt range!), which nullified another strong effort on the defensive end where they allowed the Tigers to shoot only 32.6% for the game. They also dominated on the glass w/ a 53-31 rebounding edge. But what ended up being the difference was a massive 44-16 edge in free throw attempts for Clemson. Talk about some "home cooking!"

Now Louisville is the home team and here they are allowing just 54.5 PPG. So, this will definitely be the stiffest test yet for a Pitt team that is averaging 85.3 PPG.  As far as "true" road games go, this will only be the Panthers' second. The first came Saturday in South Bend when they upset Notre Dame thanks to a season-high 10 three-pointers made. This is also the best free throw shooting team in the country right now. Yet, it is Louisville that owns the distinction of being the ONLY team in the country to rate in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Despite recent results, they are going to be just fine moving forward. 8* Louisville

10* Under Cavs/Spurs (8:05 ET):  San Antonio has been downright ridiculous this year. While the focus has been on Golden State, all the Spurs have done is turn in the best point differential we've ever seen through 40 games (+14.1 PPG!). They are also a perfect 22-0 SU at home, holding teams to a league low 89.3 PPG. If that's not enough, they own the league's best pointspread record (28-12 ATS) as well. But, in all due respect, Greg Popovich's team has faced a relatively "light" schedule to this point; in fact in terms of opponents' win percentage, it has been the easiest in the league. With equally red hot Cleveland (8-game win streak) coming to town, I'm laying off the side and instead playing the total. Take the Under.

I already mentioned that the Spurs are the top defensive team in the league. Per 100 possessions, they allow 4.6 PPG fewer than the #2 team and are on pace to be the most efficient defensive team in 11 seasons. Since losing on Opening Night at OKC (only time they've been a dog all season), they have allowed 100+ pts in a game only six times, never consecutively. Going back to December 7th, they've allowed fewer than 100 in 17 of their last 19 games. But they aren't the only top tier defensive team in this matchup. Cleveland also ranks in the top five in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and held Dallas to just 107 pts even w/ overtime Tues night. This season, the Cavs are a perfect 10-0 Under when coming off a non-conference game. Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in the league in terms of pace of play, so there shouldn't be an abundance of possessions.

Of late, Cleveland has been far exceeding their YTD scoring average on offense. They topped 120 pts in three consecutive games last week, but the opponents were Washington, Minnesota & Philadelphia. Needless to say, this is a step up in class. Again, remember their last game went to overtime, so the final number of total points there is a bit misleading. San Antonio has also been rather prolific offensively of late, averaging 112.2 PPG their last five, a number which is due to come down as it will be difficult to continue shooting over 50% on a nightly basis (something they've done in six of their last eight games!). With both teams exceeding offensive/defensive averages their L5 games, I'd say we are due for a "correction." Cleveland has stayed Under in all four games this year in which it has been an underdog. 10* Under Cavs/Spurs

8* Anaheim (10:05 ET): The Ducks really let me down the other night, losing 2-1 here at home to Detroit. That was despite a 31-24 edge in shots and it's been a somewhat predictable pattern this season that whenever you expect this team to really turn things around, they fail.  That being said, there are signs that upward mobility is imminent as their record over the last eight games is 5-2-1 and they have outshot every opponent during that stretch. Tonight, in comes an Ottawa team that was just blasted 7-1 in its last game (at Washington). As I've written about previously, the Senators give up way too many shots, in fact no team allows more per game (33.4). This is a good matchup for Anaheim and a relatively cheap price as well.

Advanced stats indicate that this could be a lopsided matchup. Despite their current standing, the Ducks rank high (as in fifth) in both Corsi and Fenwick.  That has a lot to do w/ the fact they are allowing the third fewest number of shots per game in the league (27.4). That's a far cry from Ottawa, who ranks near the bottom in the league in both Corsi (25th) and Fenwick (29th).  The Ducks issue all season long has obviously been goal scoring (last in the league), but considering they average over 30 shots/game, I expect that to change. No team has a lower shooting percentage this season (just 6.3%) and opposing goaltenders have actually been even stingier over their last five games. Ottawa ranks 26th in the league in goals allowed, so again, this is a good matchup for the home team.

One area where the Ducks are great is penalty killing.  They're actually the top team in the league in that department at 89.7 percent while Ottawa is 28th at 76.2 percent. So we know which team is more likely to benefit tonight from having the man advantage.  Again, the Senators were absolutely crushed their last time out and have just three wins over their last ten games, two of them coming in overtime. During that time, they've been outscored 34-17, a 2:1 margin. When it comes to goaltending, I give a big edge to the Ducks w/ John Gibson, who has yet to surrender more than three goals in any start since being called up from the AHL. Ottawa's likely starter, Craig Anderson, has struggled of late w/ a 3.58 goals against average his L5 road starts (all losses). 8* Anaheim

10* Notre Dame (9:00 ET):  Remember when the Fighting Irish used to be unbeatable here in South Bend under HC Mike Brey?  Here, they are coming off an 86-82 home loss to Pittsburgh over the weekend and while it was their first loss of the season at Purcell Pavillion, Notre Dame is now just 10-23 ATS its L33 home games. I look for them to get back on track tonight though against a Georgia Tech team that's probably feeling a little too good about itself following a 68-64 upset of Virginia (were 6-pt dogs) on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets are 3-0 ATS in ACC play, but lost at both North Carolina and Pittsburgh. In fact, the final score vs. Pittsburgh was nearly identical to Notre Dame's result against the Panthers. Lay the points.

Overall, the Fighting Irish are just 3-3 straight up and 1-5 against the spread their last six games. In addition to losing to Pitt, they've also fallen to Indiana (neutral court) and at Virginia. But there's really no shame in any of the three SU losses and the team is still averaging 83.1 PPG at home this season. They shot the ball well against Pitt (54.2 FG%) and in fact are one of the better shooting teams in the entire country at 50.6 percent (5th). They shot 62.3 percent in a road win over Boston College last week and I think that the Fighting Irish will find much success offensively against a Yellow Jackets team that's permitting an average of 76.7 points in six games outside of Atlanta this year.

Defensively then, Notre Dame obviously has issues. The primary one is that visiting teams have been able to come in and connect on 41.3 percent of their three-point attempts.  That can't continue. The offensive vs. defensive dichotomy under Brey has always been quite striking, but I'm not sure it's ever been as pronounced this year as KenPom has the Irish rate 3rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, but 214th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  That's pretty insane. Nevertheless, Georgia Tech is off perhaps its biggest ACC win in five seasons under HC Brian Gregory and will be in full letdown mode here. This is a much cheaper price than what ND was asked to lay last year when the Yellow Jackets visited.  10* Notre Dame

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET):  Despite losing Carmelo Anthony to a sprained ankle early in the second half, the Knicks somehow pulled out a fifth victory in six games (6-0 ATS) last night, beating Boston 120-114. I'm not ashamed to admit that I was on the Celtics there and making things all the more head-scratching is that rookie Kristaps Porzingis battled foul trouble for much of the game. Though I was on New York earlier in the year when they blew out Brooklyn, I'm going "the other way" here as the Knicks are now being asked to lay more points on the road than they were at home in that 108-91 victory last month. Plus, the potential loss of Anthony will be difficult to overcome. Take the points.

While the Knicks have been trending in a positive direction, it's a much different feel a borough away as Brooklyn has hit rock bottom. With their future looking rather bleak, the Nets decided to fire HC Lionel Hollins and GM Billy King earlier this week. Who can blame them? The team has lost five straight - both SU and ATS - and were double digit dogs in the last two. They were unfortunate to draw San Antonio in the first game after the changes were made as typically you'll see a temporary spike in play when a team makes a coaching change. The Nets certainly weren't going to beat the Spurs, but I feel they can beat the Knicks as they are catching them at an opportune time. There may be no Anthony and it's the second game of a back to back. Thus, I don't think anyone would fault New York if they didn't have their 'A game.'  Brooklyn, on the other hand, needs to show a little fire in the wake of the organizational changes.

The Knicks haven't been particularly good when playing w/o rest, going 3-5 straight up in that situation this year and the one time they went from home to away, they lost by 15 points. If Anthony can't go here (and I suspect he will not), that's 21.6 points per game (highest average on team) gone from the lineup. This will only be the third time all season that the Knicks will be a road favorite. The Nets have somehow managed to lose 10 in a row at home, so again, they should be motivated in this spot.  10* Brooklyn

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Early in the season, the Hornets had been one of the real surprises in the league. As recently as three weeks ago, only four teams in the league were outscoring their opponents by larger margin per 100 possessions. However, 2016 has been somewhat of a disaster. They've lost every game in the new year while at the same time going 1-5 against the spread. Overall, they are just 2-10 SU/ATS their L12 games. The biggest issue during the slide has been defense, or rather a lack of it, as five straight teams topped 100 points against them before losses to the Clippers and Nuggets at the end of a four-game West Coast swing. But, with them having two days off and back at home, I'm going to call for a bounce back here as Nic Batum (second leading scorer) has returned. Charlotte's home record is still 13-7 straight up. Take the points.

Atlanta has beaten Charlotte twice this year, but both games were decided by three points or less. The Hornets did not shoot the ball well either time. It was a home & home very early in the season and in Atlanta, they were at 40.9 percent from the field. Two days later, here at home, they were at 37.2 percent. Interestingly, they shot well from three-point range (26 of 67) so that means they were a somewhat unfathomable 42 of 107 on two-point attempts. Now with Batum back in the fold, I'd expect a much higher percentage tonight. For the season, the team averages 103.1 PPG here at home. They've had an adequate time to recover from the West Coast trip as well and are 4-2 ATS this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest.

The Hawks were lights out from the field in recent victories over the Sixers and Bulls.  Both games were decided by double digits and saw the Hawks shoot better than 52 percent while averaging 123 PPG.  It's only natural for them to come back down to Earth. At the same time, Charlotte has been below 37 percent shooting its last two games, so that's another case that they're due to turn it around offensively. But defense may be the deciding factor here. The Hornets are still only allowing 98.6 PPG at home. Over the L5 games, the Hawks are giving up 107.2! 8* Charlotte

8* UNLV (10:00 ET):  So, UNLV has fired Dave Rice. I suppose given how much the Rebels are underachieving this year, the news shouldn't be too big of a shock. Taking over a team that has lost three in a row, interim HC Todd Simon has a tall - and perhaps unenviable - task ahead of him, but I feel that tonight is an excellent "buy low" opportunity on the team at home. Consider that all three recent Rebels' losses were by three points or less, the last two coming on the road. They are seven points away from being 3-0 instead of 0-3 SU in Mountain West play and obviously we'd be having a much different conversation as Rice would still be employed. Look for the Rebels to come out and play inspired ball tonight in Vegas. Lay the points.

The home court edge has not meant much in recent UNLV-New Mexico matchups w/ the road team winning outright all four times the past two seasons. But to me, that's all the more reason to believe that the home team will turn it around here. New Mexico is just 2-1 on the road and while they won their last away game, 77-62 as five-point dogs at Fresno State, they did lose at both Purdue and USC while surrendering an average of 80 PPG. The Lobos are likely feeling pretty good about themselves right about now as they rolled to a 77-59 win over Utah State in Albuquerque Saturday. But not only did they shoot the ball well in that game, their opponents were a pretty woeful 34.3% from the field including 6 for 29 from three-point range.  That was a 43-18 game at halftime as USU went 10 minutes w/o a field goal in the first half. Impressive as it sounds, I just don't believe that performance is indicative of what you should be expecting from this Lobos team.

UNLV has talent; there's no denying that. Rice brought in B2B strong recruiting classes, including NBA prospect Stephen Zimmerman. But the freshman has struggled a bit and for some reason is only sixth on the team in FG attempts. One issue Rice had was managing his rotation. Look for that to be a point of emphasis for Simon and I expect Zimmerman to shoot more moving forward. Though they've already lost outright four times as a favorite, UNLV can absolutely salvage this season and it starts tonight. 8* UNLV

10* Under Oilers/Coyotes (9:05 ET): These teams just met (on Jan 2) and it was Edmonton prevailing 4-3 at home. They followed that up w/ a 1-0 win over Carolina (I had the Under in that game, which went to overtime!), but have since dropped B2B games to conclude a six-game home stand. Now they hit the road where they are a league-worst 5-14-2 this year and averaging less than two goals per game. Seeing as how the Oilers have been held to 1 or 0 goals in three of their past five games, it's certainly difficult to like their chances here in the rematch w/ Arizona, even though they may have won last time. At the same time, the 'Yotes aren't a team that I trust either, so we turn to the total and I like the Under in this matchup.

With a three-game win streak, Arizona finds itself in second place in the very weak Pacific Division w/ 46 points. For a frame of reference, that point total wouldn't even have them in the top four in the much tougher Central, nor would they be in the top four in either of the Eastern Conference's two divisions. They are coming off a shutout win, 4-0 over Nashville, which is promising as is the fact they are giving up an average of just 1.8 goals per game their last five. They allowed the four at Edmonton, but have won the other four games, allowing two or fewer every time. While still ranking 28th in the league in goals allowed, the Yotes should be fine here considering the Oilers' offensive woes. Arizona's last three games have all stayed Under.

Louis Domingue has been the key for Arizona's resurgence as the goaltender has a 6-0-2 record w/ a 1.73 goals against average and .947 save percentage. Over the team's last five games, he's been even better w/ a 1.58 GAA and .953 save percentage. So, again, it's difficult to like Edmonton's chances in this one as they've scored only 19 goals total their last 12 games. Thus, the Under here is likely contingent on the Oilers keeping the 'Yotes from finding the back of the net too many times and I'll definitely take my chances as Cam Talbot has been pretty sharp of late w/ a 1.78 GAA his last five starts. 10* Under Oilers/Coyotes

8* Chicago (8:35 ET): Don't look now, but the Blackhawks are playing really well as the defending Stanley Cup Champs have won seven in a row while outscoring opponents by a 29-15 margin. That includes a 6-3 win over Colorado on Sunday where they were actually outshot (37-35), but consider that in the previous two games they outshot their opponents (Pittsburgh & Buffalo) 82-47. Tonight is a revenge spot as division foe Nashville comes to town and considering how much the home ice advantage has meant in this rivalry in recent years, I think the 'Hawks are a tremendous value at this ML price, especially given how much they've been winning lately. The Predators, meanwhile, have lost three in a row and five of six.

Including LY's playoff series, these two have faced off against one another 12 times over the last two seasons. The home team has won 10 of those games and both road wins came from Chicago. Nashville has not won at the "Madhouse on Madison" since March 14th, 2014. Taking into account recent form, I don't see that losing streak ending here. The Blackhawks are 18-5-1 this season at home where they are giving up just 1.6 goals per game. Corey Crawford was NOT between the pipes the last time these teams met (in Nashville), but did turn in a 36-save performance here against the Preds two days prior. Overall, Crawford has posted a .953 save percentage and 1.48 goals against average his last four starts.

Given that Nashville has dropped two-thirds of their road games so far (14 of 21), including a 1-5-1 mark their last seven, I find it difficult to believe that they'll be turning things around tonight. Saturday saw them get shutout for a fifth time this year, 4-0 at Arizona, as they are now averaging just 1.4 goals per game since December 31st.  Chicago is averaging more than four goals per game during that same time frame, so taking all factors into account (particularly home ice advantage), I think that it's safe to say a blowout could be in the cards this evening. When taking on a team w/ a losing record, the Blackhawks are 17-5 this year. They also have a +22 YTD goal differential while Nashville is -8.  8* Chicago

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  What's that Albert Einstein quote regarding insanity? I feel I'm approaching that point here w/ the T'wolves, who are an unfathomable 3-17-1 ATS at home this year. I've been on the wrong end of a number of those losses of late, though they were close on Sunday as they lost here to Dallas by only six points, getting four. Still though, I'm not sure if I've ever seen any NBA team perform so poorly against the pointspread on its home floor. As I've written about previously, the "worm is likely to turn" as the oddsmakers become more generous, like they are here w/ Oklahoma City coming to town. The Thunder have their own pointspread woes to be concerned over as like Minnesota they're only 14-23-1 ATS for the year (tied for league worst) and that includes a 13-20 mark when favored. Take the points here as Minnesota is well overdue to cover.

The Thunder are off a bad 115-100 loss in Portland their last time out as they blew an eight-point lead w/ just over three minutes remaining. Part of that was the Blazers connecting on 19 three-pointers, which wouldn't seem to be a concern here as Minnesota is attempting the fewest number of 3PA in the league. But the fact remains that since X-Mas, OKC has covered just two of nine games. This is their third road game in five night and they have a home game vs. Dallas tomorrow. Defensively, they have issues as they are allowing 103.1 PPG on the road, including 114 PPG on the current trip. Those games, against the Lakers & Blazers, are ones where you'd think the Thunder would win convincingly, but alas they did not. OKC is 1-7 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this year + 4-13 ATS when facing a team w/ a losing record.

Minnesota clearly needs to start taking more threes as overall they are averaging a pretty woeful 88.8 PPG their last five. They've gone 0-6 straight up and against the spread their last six and dropped 10 of 11 overall SU (2-9 ATS).  As bad as things have been, two of their last three losses did come by six points or less and they did cover a game at San Antonio late last month. You have to imagine that they'll start to play better at home (can't be any worse) and I say it starts tonight where they'll stay inside the number.  8* Minnesota

10* Boston (7:35 ET):  I won't hesitate to say that the Celtics are better than their record. Despite currently being in ninth place in the East, they have the Conference's fourth best point differential. What has hurt them is a league-worst 0-5 SU mark in games decided by three points or less, the latest loss coming Sunday in Memphis where they blew a 21-point third quarter lead in Brad Stevens' return to the bench. The final score was 101-98 and it was Boston's fifth loss in the last six games overall. Perception has started to swing against them, but I feel that makes this is an excellent "buy low" spot as they are an underdog at the Knicks, a distinction that my own power rankings would disagree with. Take the points.

New York has covered five in a row (4-1 SU) and their only SU loss during that time came by a single point at San Antonio. They are much improved this year, but keep in mind they'd lost five of six themselves before this current streak got underway. Boston took three of the four meetings last season as well as the first this season, 100-91 as 8.5-point favorites. That number right there, as well as the result, indicate that there is indeed a value we're getting w/ the Celtics on the road here.  The Knicks did win three in a row as underdogs here in 2016 and then bounced back from the loss to San Antonio by downing Milwaukee, 100-88.  They've averaged 103.0 PPG on 48 percent shooting these last five games, which is noticeably above their season averages, so I'd expect them to start coming back down to Earth.

Defensively, the Knicks have allowed just 95.2 PPG over their last five, which is also significantly better than their season average. But Boston is due for a turnaround offensively as this marks the first time all season that they have failed to score 100+ points in three consecutive games. It's also the third time the C's have been on a three-game losing streak. They are 2-0 SU/ATS in this spot previously, having beaten Washington and Minnesota by an average of 17 PPG. Again, they led the Grizzlies by 21, in Memphis, on Sunday. Avery Bradley is back in the lineup and this is a team likely to turn things around. 10* Boston

10* Virginia (7:00 ET):  The 13th ranked Cavaliers have dropped two in a row, both as favorites, on the road. First it was at Virginia Tech, 70-68, as 12.5-pt chalk. Then, 68-64 at Georgia Tech as a six-point choice. This is the first time since 2013-14 that Tony Bennett's team has lost consecutive games. Between then and now, they had been a perfect 8-0 straight up coming off a loss w/ every victory coming by a double digit margin. I was surprised to find that it was UVA's defense that really let them down against Va and Ga Tech. They allowed 66 points per game, which doesn't sound like much, but that's six PPG more than their season average. Tonight, the Hoos return home (where they are 7-0 SU) to host Miami in a crucial ACC battle and I think they'll be up for the challenge. Lay the points.

Miami hasn't lost since the end of November when they shockingly fell at the buzzer to Northeastern as 16-pt home faves. That's their only loss. They've won eight in a row including B2B 13-point victories (at home) over Syracuse and Florida State to open ACC play. They've averaged a whopping 90 PPG on the road, which is unsustainable, particularly considering tonight marks just their second "true" road game of the season (that scoring average includes four neutral site games as well). The Canes did not fare well in their last visit to Charlottesville (lost by 25) and then last year fell to the Hoos by nine at home. Over the L3 seasons, the U is actually just 8-12 SU/8-11-1 ATS off an ACC win.

This Virginia team has many impressive wins on its resume. Remember that they beat both Villanova and West Virginia by double digits. They haven't rebounded well in the B2B losses and I feel will be a desperate team coming into tonight's game. They remain in the top 10 in the country in scoring defense (60.9 PPG) and assist to turnover ratio. Offensively, the team also shoots the ball quite well; 49% overall including 39% from three-point range. It was a combination of an off-shooting night and Georgia Tech going 8 for 15 from 3-pt range themselves Saturday. Facing what would be their first three-game losing streak in five years, Virginia will come out strong here. 10* Virginia

8* Miami (10:35 ET): I do not anticipate the Heat getting "blown out" here. By the rankings, they will be one of the toughest opponents that Golden State will have faced all season. I currently have Miami rated sixth in my own personal power rankings and aside from a visit to San Antonio, they won't be getting even close to this many points in a game all season. While that's obviously true for any team visiting the Warriors, the difference here is the Heat can actually do something about it. They are top six in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and give up just 93.4 points per game on the road. While 9-0 straight up, Golden State is only 5-4 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points and this is the best opponent they have faced when laying that many all season. Take the points.

Coming off an ugly 98-83 loss at Utah (no rest) Saturday night, I anticipate Miami being highly motivated. While it's true that they've played the fewest number of road games in the league thus far - just 14 - it's also true that they've been an underdog just seven times previously and are a respectable 3-4 straight up in those games. They are also 7-7 SU on the road and basically dead even in pts scored vs. allowed. They'll clearly have to be better offensively than they were at Utah, which is likely as Dwyane Wade was just 3 for 17 from the field in that game. As a team, they have alternated good and bad offensive showings over the L7 games and haven't gone B2B games w/o scoring 100+ points since before Christmas. The Heat have fared well vs. the West this year (11-3 SU/8-5-1 ATS) and are 7-3 straight up following a SU loss as a favorite (6-4 ATS).

Golden State is rolling again as they've won six in a row; the last three coming on the road by a combined 53 points. But the competition there was weak as the Lakers, Portland and Sacramento are all below .500. In fact, this will be the Warriors first game against a team currently sporting a better than .500 record since the loss to Dallas on December 30th. They haven't lost at home this year and have an impressive scoring margin here, but are only 5-7 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference. This will be a tough game for the defending champs. 8* Miami

10* Under Sharks/Flames (9:05 ET): After scoring just one goal in B2B home losses, San Jose exploded for seven in a shutout victory over Toronto Saturday that was as dominant as any hockey game you'll see all season. It was their fifth straight game outshooting an opponent and If there is a team that can rise up and challenge the first place Kings in the Pacific, I'd say it's most likely this one (though still a long shot). While I've previously written about the Sharks' low shooting percentage this season, that issue has mainly reared its ugly head on home ice, not on the road. With Calgary ranking 29th in goals allowed, you might want to say that it should be another big night offensively here for the Sharks. But I'm not convinced. Take the Under.

These teams have played twice already this year and both games saw at least six total goals scored. The home team won both times, scoring four (Calgary) and five (San Jose) goals respectively. Yet, overall, five of the past six matchups between the two here in Calgary have stayed Under the number. The Flames come into tonight's game riding a streak of five consecutive Unders as none of those games saw more than five total goals scored. They have one shutout victory and one shutout loss to their credit during that time and are averaging just 24.4 shots on goal.  Three times they have scored one goal or less, three times they have allowed one goal or less. They have scored a total of just five goals their last four home games, including a 2-1 loss here to Arizona on Thursday. 

Replicating a performance like Saturday's will be near impossibility for San Jose. That being said, they are 3-0 this season following a shutout victory and the Under is 2-0-1 in those games. But a decrease in goal scoring is basically a "lock" here.  Especially considering Flames goalie Kari Ramo has a 1.39 GAA his L5 starts against them. Ramo also has posted a 1.01 goals against average in his first three starts here in 2016.  The Under is a perfect 4-0 his last four starts. I look for a low-scoring game here. 10* Under Sharks/Flames

10* Clemson (8:30 ET):  I'm in a bit of a "unique" (i.e. embarrassing) situation here as I actually lost BOTH CFP semifinal games. However, on the bright side, that precludes me from any potential bias towards either of the two teams - Alabama & Clemson. Both were quite impressive the last time we saw them; Clemson shutting out high-powered Oklahoma in the second half & 'Bama shutting out Michigan State for the entire game. All but one of the Crimson Tide's wins this season (exception is Tennessee) have come by double-digits, so that would seem to give them a bit of an edge, laying only a touchdown, but of course Clemson comes in unbeaten at 14-0 SU. I do think the underdog Tigers have the potential to give the Tide some issues that Michigan State simply was not capable of (mobile quarterback) and that this game will be closer "than the experts think." Take the points.

There are six active FBS coaches that have won a National Championship. Clemson HC Dabo Swinney has beaten five of them. The sixth would be Nick Saban and he gets a chance to check the final name off the list here.  Now, fittingly, Saban & Alabama will be the toughest test Swinney has faced in his now eight-year tenure here in Death Valley. Fortunately for him, however, he has his best team ever. Led by sensational QB DeShaun Watson, the offense averaged 38.4 points and 512 yards per game. Only three times this season were they held under 30 pts and one of those was not against Oklahoma, whom they moved the ball at will against (312 rush yds). Excluding a kneeldown at the end of the game, there was just one Clemson drive that didn't go at least six plays, a relatively meaningless three-and-out when the game was clearly decided. Unlike Michigan State, this is an offense that can give Bama's defense problems and will not cater to the Tide's strengths. Remember that Saban defenses have often struggled against mobile QB's such as Watson (who has accounted for 53 touchdowns this season!).

I was stunned at how the Clemson defense was able to shut down the Oklahoma running game New Year's Eve (allowed only 67 yds) and that will give them confidence for this matchup where they figure to face a steady dose of Heisman winner Derek Henry. Henry actually only went for 75 yds in the semifinal game and that was after a lot of time off. Granted, he had only 20 carries, but I still have concerns over his usage rate of the course of the season. Remember that it was "only" a 17-0 game relatively late in the third quarter vs. Michigan State and that QB Jake Coker played arguably the "game of his life" w/ 286 yards passing on 25 of 30 passing. I do NOT anticipate a repeat performance here as Clemson has a much better secondary than Michigan State. The key here will be putting the 'Bama offense in "third and long" (at least five yards to go). For the season, the Tide have converted at less than 25 percent rate in those situations.  While I don't think Clemson will win this game, I do have them staying within the number in back and forth type affair. 10* Clemson

8* Over Alabama/Clemson (8:30 ET):  These two teams combined for 75 points in their respective semifinal victories, yet both games stayed Under the total due to holding the respective opponents in check. Clemson shut Oklahoma out in the second half while Alabama shut Michigan State out for the game. Here, I anticipate each defense encountering a little "more resistance." Yes, these teams are 1-2 in terms of defensive efficiency. But, the offenses have hit their stride and in the case of Clemson, never really lost it. The Tigers come in averaging 38.4 points and 512 yards per game this season and those yards actually go UP outside of Death Valley. As for Alabama, they have averaged 36.6 PPG their last five. Take the Over.

Only three times this season was Clemson's offense held below 30 points. They moved the ball at will against Oklahoma, rolling up 530 total yards, 312 of them coming on the ground. Consider that was a good Sooners defense, one that came in allowing just 20.7 PPG. That's been pretty "par for the course" as the unbeaten Tigers now gain 156 YPG more than their opponents typically allow. In DeShaun Watson, they have the kind of quarterback that has, historically speaking, given Nick Saban defenses trouble. Watson, a dual threat, has accounted for a ridiculous 53 touchdowns this year. He is far more mobile than Chad Kelly of Ole Miss, who handed 'Bama their only loss this season and put up 433 yards of offense.

Alabama was held under 29 points just once all season (Tennessee) and QB Jake Coker is coming off the best game of his career. Duplicating his performance against Michigan State here is unlikely due to the Clemson defense not being nearly the ideal matchup, but the Tigers defense has been a little "bend, but don't break" this season. They are giving up 5.5 yards per point the L3 games and Oklahoma actually rang up almost 400 total yards. The Tigers did a remarkable job at stopping Oklahoma's run game in the semifinal, but now must respect both the Alabama passing and running game due to what Coker did on New Year's Eve. The Over had cashed five straight times for Clemson away from home prior to their NYE win. 8* Over Alabama/Clemson

10* Chattanooga (6:00 ET): This shapes up as a big game in the Southern Conference as the preseason favorite (Chattanooga) is off a loss and in danger of falling two games back in the standings of tonight's opponent, Wofford. The Mocs are still favored though, and for good reason, as before being upset at Furman Saturday, they'd won eight in a row and were 13-2 SU overall for the season. They hold wins over Illinois, Georgia and Dayton. As fired up as Wofford might be for this game, they come in off a very fortunate win and simply aren't getting enough "help" from the linesmakers to entice me here as their 5-20 straight up record as an underdog (0-7 SU/1-6 ATS this season) speaks volumes. Lay the points.

Chattanooga is 11-0 SU this season when scoring 70+ points. They were held to only 55 in Saturday's loss to Furman as they shot just 42.6 percent from the field and were outrebounded. They also turned the ball over 20 times and were just 9 for 19 from the free throw line (71% FT shooting team). Something to keep in mind here is that the Mocs are 6-2 straight up the previous two seasons coming off a conference loss. The road team has actually won three straight in this SoCon rivalry w/ UTC winning each of the last two years here in Spartanburg. In fact, UTC has led Wofford for a total of 127:11 (out of a possible 160 minutes) of game time the four meetings overall, so they've had their number.

Wofford was lucky to win its last time out. They trailed Samford by nine w/ just over two minutes remaining, but closed the game on a stunning 14-0 run to not only win the game, but leave w/ the cash (as 4.5-pt favorites) as well.  The Terriers still have a losing record (6-9 SU), however, and had lost four in a row prior to the start of conference play. That's in stark contrast to the way UTC largely dominated it's non-conference slate of games.  One might point to the continued absence of reigning SoCon Player of the Year Casey Jones as the reason the Mocs lost to Furman, but they were w/o him when they went into Dayton and won outright as 12.5-pt pups. Simply put, this is the best team in their league and they should bounce back from a rare defeat.  10* Chattanooga

10* Over Panthers/Oilers (9:35 ET):  Florida is - by far - the hottest team in the league right now as they've surged to the top of the Atlantic w/ 11 straight wins (franchise record). They give up the fewest number of goals per game in the league (2.1), so one probably couldn't blame them if they came into tonight feeling pretty good about facing an opponent that has been held to two goals or fewer in four of its last five games.  But I anticipate this one being more high scoring than expected. The Panthers have been giving up a pretty frightening number of shots per game for a team that's been winning so much lately. In fact, they've been outshot on average by over 10 per game the L5 victories. Edmonton also is giving up a high number of shots per game, so this should turn into a pretty wide open game.

Call me "shocked" that Florida has been able to keep winning despite averaging only 24.4 shots (very low number) their last five games while at the same time giving up 34.8 (very high). That is not a winning recipe, so I'd expect regression to hit pretty soon. It might not be starting tonight, but I do like for them to start giving up more goals based on the number of shots they are allowing. Earlier this month, they gave up 40 each in B2B wins over the Rangers and Wild. Thursday saw them get outshot 32-16 by Ottawa, yet they still prevailed 3-2. Goaltender Roberto Luongo has a ridiculous .970 save percentage over his L4 starts and that can only start to come down. The Panthers have allowed two goals or less ten times during this 11-game run, which is probably unsustainable. 

Edmonton, meanwhile, is likely to start rectifying a discrepancy that has them scoring at a rate of just 1.8 goals on 31.8 shots their last five games. I haven't been afraid to play this team Under the total recently, having done so successfully each of their last two games, one of those a 1-0 overtime win over Carolina. It probably should have been even lower scoring that it was in Friday's 3-2 loss to the Lightning as all three TB goals deflected off a skate, but the bottom line is Edmonton is still giving up 31.3 shots per game (4th most in the league), so that's what happens sometimes. The Oilers are 6-1 Over at home this season when the total is 5.0.  10* Over Panthers/Oilers

8* Anaheim (8:05 ET): Are the Ducks finally turning things around? It looks like it as they've won five of their last seven games to vault into fourth place in the weak Pacific Division. That's in spite of a poor -20 goal differential for the season, but remember that this team couldn't score to save it's life for the first month or so. Now, they've scored four times in two of the last three games, including a 4-3 win over St. Louis Friday. They remain at home here to play a Detroit team that has won three straight, but could be a little "road-weary" as tonight marks their fourth away game in a row. The Red Wings have been a little lucky to win three straight one-goal games and as I've written before, I'm a little concerned over this team's inability to consistently create scoring opportunities. I like the home team in this one.

Detroit is second in the Atlantic w/ 49 points, but has a negative scoring margin for the year, so it's definitely fair to say that they've overachieved thus far.  Sure enough, they've been outshot in each of the last three games, including 36-25 in Thursday's 2-1 win at San Jose. For the season, the Wings are averaging only 28.5 shots per game, 23rd in the league and only one-half shot ahead of 28th.  They are 0-3 this season following a three-game unbeaten streak, so history is somewhat against them here. This road trip started out East, so fatigue could start to become a factor as they play three games in five nights in Southern California. Because they play tomorrow night as well, red-hot Petr Mrazek could be given the night off here, which would be a big boost as Jimmy Howard hasn't been nearly as effective in goal.

Anaheim has its own hot goaltender they've been riding of late. John Gibson has posted a 1.56 goals against average his L6 starts and has a .926 save percentage overall since being called up from the AHL.  The Ducks also have the league's best penalty kill (89.4 percent), one that went 4 for 4 in the win over St. Louis last time out. Unlike Detroit, Anaheim has had little difficulty getting the puck on net lately as they've had at least 35 shots on goal three straight games, including B2B games w/ 39.  8* Anaheim

10* Minnesota (5:05 ET): Here we go again. "Chasing" is never good, but the bottom line is that the T'wolves HAVE to begin to improve upon this woeful 3-16-1 ATS home record of theirs and this is yet another instance where my own personal power rankings indicate they are a strong value. The team has lost 9 of 10 overall (2-8 ATS) as they ran into a buzzsaw known as Cleveland Friday night and the Cavs couldn't miss, hitting 53.1 percent of their shots in a 125-99 romp. The game prior, it was Minnesota's offense that let them down as they held Denver to 35.8% percent shooting, yet lost 78-74 due to a nine-point fourth quarter. This evening, I'll call for them to "put it all together," finally.  Take the points.

Dallas also comes in off a loss, one that came in rather heartbreaking fashion, as they lost at the buzzer in Milwaukee Friday night. After a strong finish to December, that marked the fourth time in the last five games where the Mavs failed to cover as they barely led after an 18-point first quarter.  They certainly weren't afraid to hoist three-point shots (NBA season-high 44 attempts!) in their last game, so it's pretty disappointing that they still only scored 95 points.  At just 10-10 straight up, this team is pretty mediocre on the road, and overall they are outscoring foes by less than one point per game this season. Defensively, the Mavs are allowing 102.9 points per game on the road.

As they figure to face a three-point barrage, Minnesota must tighten up defensively in this one. Opponents are making 37.3 percent of their three-point attempts the L10 games against this team w/ Cleveland going 13 of 27 Friday. But a lot of those were well defended shots made by good shooters (JR Smith made seven). As rough as things have been of late, the T'wolves are still only being outscored by less than four points per 100 possessions and you have to think that they're at least due to start covering some of these home games. No other team in the league is even close to as bad at the betting window at home as the T'wolves are.  But they'd actually been favored in a surprising number of games recently and I believe getting points, they are a solid value. 10* Minnesota

10* Green Bay (4:45 ET): Recent form has the Packers in the unusual role of NOT being heavily endorsed by the public and the result of that was a real shocker - Washington actually being favored at the open for this Wild Card matchup! Make no mistake about it, Green Bay has struggled mightily down the stretch, particularly on offense where they have not topped 30 points even once since opening the season 6-0. But Kirk Cousins and the Redskins don't impress me at all. Their appearance here is largely owed to the other three teams in their division (NFC East) all imploding at various points of the season.  This line has bounced around since the open, but regardless of where it ends up, I'm on the Pack as I expect them to win this game straight up.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Kirk Cousins remains a mismatch in favor of the former. Yes, it's been Cousins "playing better" of late, but let's keep in mind that prior to the L4 games he nor his team could string together consecutive quality performances. This four game win streak of theirs came at the expense of Chicago, Buffalo, Philadelphia and Dallas, all teams that were out of contention. Because of the last place schedule they faced, the 'Skins ended up playing only TWO teams that made the playoffs, New England and Carolina, and those two ended up outscoring them by a whopping 71-26 margin. Their defense can be had, especially against the pass. They still gave up 765 yards through the air the L2 games, including 412 (69% completions) in a somewhat misleading 34-23 final over Dallas in the season finale (were +4 in turnovers). So, Rodgers is certainly capable of having a good game Sunday. Prior to this win streak, Washington was only 7-28 SU in the underdog role the previous three seasons (Note: this trend may not end up applying).

With Rodgers and the Packers' offense struggling to get back on track, do not be surprised if it is the team's defense that leads them to victory in this one. That unit allowed 20.2 points per game this season. They were torched by Arizona two weeks ago, but other than that, allowed more than 20 points just three other times in the past 13 games. Against Minnesota last week, they allowed only 242 yards total, including just 91 through the air. The Packers have the advantage here of having been in the playoffs before while Washington has not. They also played a much tougher regular season schedule.  10* Green Bay

10* Under Packers/Redskins (4:45 ET): Green Bay did not look good down the stretch, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. With Aaron Rodgers, that's surprising (even w/ a depleted WR corps), but the bottom line is that this team hasn't topped 30 points one time since starting the season a perfect 6-0. They really struggled in the L2 games, totaling just 21 points in losses to Arizona and Minnesota. Shockingly, there were four other games this season where the Pack were held to 17 pts or fewer, making it six total or nearly half their games. At the same time, Kirk Cousins and Washington doesn't scare me despite their recent strong offensive form. I like this one to finish Under the total.

With Rodgers and the Packers' offense struggling to get back on track, do not be surprised if it is the team's defense that carries them in this one. That unit allowed just 20.2 points per game this season. They were torched by Arizona two weeks ago, but other than that, allowed more than 20 points just three other times in the past 13 games. Against Minnesota last week, they allowed only 242 yards total, including just 91 through the air. In their only two games against playoff teams (New England & Carolina), the Washington offense was held to an average of only 16 points per game and gained just 250 and 196 total yards. Cousins, while improved, remains a question mark on this stage. He struggles against the blitz and the Packers defense blitzes a lot. Opposing QB's completed only 58.6% of their pass attempts against GB (4th lowest in the league) and Washington averages less than 100 YPG rushing. Green Bay went Under in 11 of their 16 regular season games.

The Redskins' own defense is pretty strong as well, at least in the first halves of games and of late. Here at home, they are allowing just 18.6 PPG including only 6.0 in the first half. They were often susceptible through the air, but the bottom line is that six of eight visiting teams this year were held to 20 points or fewer. Over the L3 games, the 'Skins have allowed an average of just 8.0 PPG in the 1st half while during that same time frame, Green Bay has averaged only 5.6!  Look for a low-scoring start to the game to hold up and this game to stay Under the total. 10* Under Packers/Redskins

8* Minnesota (1:05 ET):  This is a bit of a tough one for me. I don't really believe the Vikings have a shot of winning this game outright. Seattle comes into the playoffs as perhaps the top team in the league (at least in Vegas' eyes) and forget about just winning this game, many feel that they can get back to the Super Bowl. But they are the third largest favorite we've seen in the Wild Card Round (since '03) and the only other two higher - New Orleans in 2011 and Pittsburgh in 2012 - both actually lost their games outright! In what figures to be a low-scoring affair (total is down to 39.5), points could be at a premium. Also, Minnesota was the best team in the league at covering the spread as they went 13-3 ATS during the regular season (including 5-1 ATS as a 'dog). Take the points.

Now there is the fact that one of the Vikings' three ATS losses was hung on them by the Seahawks, who came here to the Twin Cities last month and rolled to a dominant 38-7 win and cover. Minnesota's only touchdown came on a late kickoff return and they were outgained for the game 433-125 (25-9 first downs!). Because of this, the natural reaction is to back Seattle again, even though the spread here is several points higher than it was for the regular season meeting. However, I don't think the NFL schedule-makers did the Seahawks any favors by making them play at 1:00 ET (10 AM ET West Coast) again. Remember that two weeks ago, this team did lose at home to St. Louis as well. So it's not as if Seattle is infallible.

Something the Vikings must do here, that they failed to do in the initial meeting, is establish Adrian Peterson and the ground game. Teddy Bridgewater is not going to beat the Seahawks throwing the ball, especially if Peterson ends up w/ only 18 yards on eight carries as he did the first go around. I would say a repeat of that performance though is highly unlikely. Note that Minnesota has covered all four games since even though Peterson's rushing numbers haven't been all that great. It's supposed to be very cold on Sunday and I think that home field advantage the Vikings have here isn't being taken into account enough. They went 6-2 SU/ATS at home this year, bringing them to 15-8 SU/ATS the L3 seasons here. Furthermore, they are 32-16 ATS in all games the L3 seasons including 21-10 ATS as a dog. Seattle is only 3-5 ATS (three outright losses) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the L3 seasons. This spread is just too high. 8* Minnesota

8* Louisville (12:00 ET):  Clemson has opened ACC play in a quite profitable way. The Tigers have covered all three league games so far, including B2B outright upsets of Florida State and Syracuse (were also 15.5 pt dogs against UNC). It'll be a big day on campus tomorrow night as the school's football team plays for the National Title, so as a result, I wouldn't be too shocked if the student body wasn't all that fired up for this one.  But Louisville should be as they're coming off a couple of close calls against Wake Forest and North Carolina State over the past week. Save for the game against Kentucky (day after X-Mas), Rick Pitino's Cardinals hardly played a daunting non-conf slate, but tip your cap to a +24.9 per game scoring margin for the season (best in the country!). I'll lay the points here.

Against NC State on Thursday, L'ville shot the ball very well and actually led by as many as 16 pts in the second half. But the final margin ended up being much closer (five points) as they let the Wolfpack in through "the back door."  The fact that it ended up being a non-cover (were seven-point favorites), I think helped create a little value tonight. The Cards have actually now failed to cover four straight, so I feel this is a good opportunity to "buy low" on a team that hasn't played up to par defensively the last few games. They still are #1 among ACC schools defensively, allowing just 58.3 PPG, while offensively they have shot the ball well all season (50.8 FG%). Thursday was the 10th time in 13 games that they shot better than 50 percent this season.

Clemson is also relatively strong defensively, but the concern tonight in Death Valley has to be an offense which ranks 14th (out of 15) in the ACC w/ just 69.8 PPG on 43.8 percent. The Tigers exceeded that average against both Florida State and Syracuse, but this is a step up in class and my guess is they'll struggle with the same L'ville defense that at one point caused NC State to miss 14 of 15 shots at one point in the first half. Clemson's win over Syracuse came in overtime Tuesday, so that result certainly could have gone either way. This team had lost three in a row to end December and isn't likely to replicate Tuesday's 53.8% percent shooting here. 8* Louisville

10* Texas Tech (9:00 ET):  Even though they've had four days to recoup, this is obviously still a tough spot for #1 Kansas, who outlasted #2 Oklahoma in triple overtime thriller Monday night.  The Jayhawks, who had better depth than the Sooners, seemed to simply outlast them at Allen Fieldhouse after trailing by as many as 10 in the second half. But four players still ended up logging 43 or more minutes and both Perry Ellis and Frank Mason III played 53. Even coming close to duplicating the kind of emotion they had Monday is a near impossibility, which could mean big trouble against an 11-2 Texas Tech team that allows just 63.3 PPG at home (where they are unbeaten) for HC Tubby Smith.  Take the points.

Though they had an impressive 10-game win streak snapped their last time out (at Iowa State), the Red Raiders still managed to cover (were 11-pt dogs) in the 76-69 loss Wednesday night.  They've now covered the spread in each of their last eight lined games.  As mentioned before, Smith has this team playing tremendous defense as they allow just 38.9 percent shooting for the year and Iowa State was one of the top shooting teams in the entire country and made only 39.7 percent (a season low for them) against TT.  Kansas will obviously be the toughest test to date, but this is a team whose only losses came against Utah and Iowa State and were by a combined 17 points.  It was actually just a three-point game w/ just over three minutes to go at ISU.

Though they've typically been near the bottom of the conference the last couple of seasons, Texas Tech has always been a "tough out" here in Lubbock. Not only are they 9-0 SU here this season (6-0 ATS), but also 33-12 SU the L3 seasons and 23-11 ATS. They've prevailed by an average margin of 15 points per game so far in 2015-16.  Kansas has played only two "true" road games so far, one of them against Chaminade, a D-II school that hosts the Maui Invitational. Look for the Red Raiders' defense to keep them in this one until the end. 10* Texas Tech

8* Cincinnati (8:15 ET):  You have to feel somewhat for the Bengals. Likely without starting QB Andy Dalton (this play is valid if he does somehow play), they draw the division rival Steelers for a third time this year. Pittsburgh comes in as hot as any team in the entire, wide-open AFC, though it was just two weeks ago that they suffered what seemed to be an unfathomable (and at the time, killer) loss to Baltimore. As you undoubtedly know, Cincinnati is 0-6 SU/ATS in the playoffs under HC Marvin Lewis and that, along with having to start AJ McCarrron at QB, is why this team finds itself as a home dog for this AFC North rubber match. However, I believe the linesmakers have errored. Despite Pittsburgh's strong finish, I still would have Cincy favored on a neutral field, making them an incredible value Saturday night. They were 12-3-1 ATS in the regular season. Take the points.

Divisional rubber matches are fairly common.  This will be the 17th since 2003, but what makes this one somewhat unique is that the road team won both matchups in the regular season.  It was Ben Roethlisberger's first game back from an early season injury (missed 4 games) when Cincy went into Pittsburgh and won 16-10 (as a Pick 'em!). Ironically, it would be the last time Andy Dalton played that the Steelers then returned the favor in Cincinnati, 33-20 (as 1-pt dogs). That game swung dramatically on a McCarron "pick-six" thrown shortly after his entry into the game. With more experience now under his belt, I would not anticipate a similar mistake being made here. This is also not a great spot for Pittsburgh as it will be their third consecutive game on the division road. They haven't played particularly well the L2 weeks, especially in the loss to the Ravens. But even in LW's 28-12 win at Cleveland, you had the feeling they would have lost to a better opponent. The Browns were starting third string QB Austin Davis, remember, and it was still only a one-score game heading into the fourth quarter. The Steelers may be w/o RB DeAngelo Williams here, leaving them in a situation similar to last year's Wild Card Game when they lacked a feature back and got beat (at home by Baltimore). I believe that the McCarron and the Bengals offense will be able to move the ball on a Pittsburgh defense that is suspect and reliant on forcing turnovers. 

Going back to the concept of the divisional rubber match, this is the seventh time since '03 that we have had two division opponents meeting in the playoffs and the road team won both regular season meetings. Fortunately for the Bengals, four of the last five hosts have won the playoff game. But what they won't want to here is that the other time this situation occurred was back in '06 when the Steelers came to town and beat them (as a road favorite). That was the infamous Kimo von Oelhoffen game. However, those were different teams. Pittsburgh had a much better scoring differential that year than did Cincinnati (+131 to +71), which is NOT the case this year (+140 to +104 in favor of the Bengals). I looked it up and there have been only two previous instances since '03 where the road team was favored in the playoffs and had the inferior YTD point differential. Both times that road favorite failed to cover! Cincinnati absolutely has the better defense in this matchup as they are second in the league in scoring (17.4 PPG allowed) and that will help them do no worse than a cover here. 8* Cincinnati

8* Under Raptors/Sixers (7:35 ET):  Toronto just held Washington, a team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the entire league, to only 88 points last night, so it stands to reason that they should have little difficulty keeping Philadelphia, the least efficient offensive team in the league, in check tonight. In fact, despite not having DeMarre Carroll, the Raptors have turned in B2B dominant defensive performances as they held Brooklyn to just 74 points Wednesday. They'll look to continue the surge here against an opponent that averages just 93.0 points per game. Curiously, the total for this game is significantly higher than it was for the first meeting when they final score was 96-76.  Take the Under.

The only concern that I have here is the fact that Philadelphia is allowing 107.1 points per game at home and just got torched here by Atlanta, giving up 126. They also allowed 130 last Saturday against the Clippers (on the road).  That explains the total being so much higher than it was for the first meeting w/ Toronto (last month), but w/ this being the second game of a back to back, I don't see the Raptors' offense being on full display tonight. They've failed to top 100 pts in B2B games anyway and haven't shot 50% in seven straight games now. The Under is 13-5 when they take on a team w/ a losing record and 5-1 on the road when the number falls into the 200 to 204.5 point range.

Meanwhile, the Sixers offensive numbers are downright pathetic as they average just 93 points per 100 possessions, which is 4.5 points less than the next worst team.  Now the defense has arguably been even worse - at least lately - as their last three opponents have all shot better than 53% from the floor. But that's due to regress.  Again, the total for the first meeting this season was 191.5, which is way down from what it is here and the teams stayed way Under that number (just 172 total points).  I see a ton of value on the Under here as the Raptors are 13-8 Under on the road due to their offensive numbers going down and their defensive numbers actually going up. There's an average of only 194.8 PPG scored in their away games this season. 8* Under Raptors/Sixers

10* Orlando (7:05 ET):  Both of these teams played last night. Orlando won, Washington lost. I expect the results to be similar here again tonight. This is a big one for the Magic, who have lost an unfathomable 11 straight times to the division rival Wizards.  Already this season, they are 0-3 SU against them, including a one-point loss here at home back in October. The most recent meeting took place on New Year's Day, in the Nation's Capital, and there it was the Wiz prevailing 103-91 as two-point chalk.  But, I think there's significant value on Scott Skiles' team as a short home favorite here as they are 67 percent ATS in all other games this year not against Washington. The Wizards have lost their last three games, all at home, and continue to be a major disappointment w/ a negative scoring margin due to their awful defense. Lay the points.

Last night, however, it was the offense that failed Washington as they scored only 88 points in a loss to the Raptors.  Making the final result even more depressing is the fact Toronto turned the ball over a season-high 23 times. They (Washington) shot just 39.3% for the game, the second time in the last three that they were below 40 percent. If this team is not scoring, then they have little chance given that they also allow 104.1 points per game. Consider that earlier this week against Cleveland they shot better than 55 percent from the field and STILL lost. As a road underdog of three points or less, they are 0-3 against the spread this season. Remember that they still don't have Bradley Beal (leg).

In the three previous meetings w/ Orlando, Washington has been fortunate in that the Magic have been just awful from three-point range.  I mean, really awful. We're talking 13 of 64, which is just over 20 percent. Considering Orlando is at 35 percent for the year from behind the arc, I think it's accurate to deem the Wizards "lucky," especially given how poor they typically are defensively.  The Magic, meanwhile, held Brooklyn to 77 points in an easy road win Friday that snapped a four-game losing streak. They are now a somewhat surprising 12-2 SU when favored this year, 9-5 ATS.  10* Orlando

9* Columbus (7:05 ET): These are the bottom two teams in the Metro and while I've previously stated a case that Carolina should be far better than its record (good advanced stats!), Columbus is a team that dug itself a huge early hole this season (started 0-8) but has been far more respectable ever since.  Now, the Hurricanes did take the front end of this home and home last night by a score of 4-1, but I'll call for the Blue Jackets to get revenge here as it's their turn to host and a 36-29 edge in shots Friday is certainly something I feel that is significant. Despite being nearly a .500 team (in regulation), the Hurricanes have posted B2B wins only three times since the start of November.

The 'Canes have simply not gotten the kind of performances between the pipes like the one Cam Ward delivered last night. Ward stopped 35 shots in his second straight strong performance. The only regulation goal he's given up the last two games came last night when Columbus had a two-man advantage on the power play. But w/ this being the second game of a back to back, it's quite likely that it will be Eddie Lack in goal tonight and he's failed to deliver all year. Lack has an .890 save percentage for the season and the team has lost both of his starts in the New Year, including 3-2 to Vancouver on Wednesday. Also not in Carolina's favor here is the fact they are just 2-6 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals the previous game.

If revenge for simply losing last night wasn't enough, the Blue Jackets will also have injured captain Nick Foligno on their minds after he took a nasty, blindside hit from Carolina's Brad Malone. Columbus' HC John Tortorella has come out and said their won't be any retaliation, but I'm not sure I buy that. Of course, the best way to retaliate would be to simply win and pick up the two points.  Goalie Anton Forsberg (.923 save percentage) has been sharp in relatively limited action so far and I expect him to answer the call here tonight.  The Blue Jackets have actually dropped three straight home games to the Hurricanes, but I'll call for that streak to come to an end here. 9* Columbus

10* Houston (4:35 ET):  This one may come as a surprise to you. Obviously, when looking at this year's Wild Card matchups, the first thing that should jump out at you is we have three road favorites (could end up being FOUR). This isn't unprecedented (happened in '09), but it is unusual. Of the three home dogs, the one the public will like the least is almost certainly going to be the Texans, who at 9-7 SU won a weak AFC South to get here. But don't make the mistake of being fooled by records. Houston, led by its tremendous defense, was a much better team during the second half of the season (beat the Bengals in Cincinnati). They finished the regular season by winning seven of their last nine games and in five different wins allowed just six points! Yes, Kansas City enters the playoffs on a 10-game win streak, but they faced a pretty weak schedule and struggled late in the year when failing to produce turnovers. They also have their own awful playoff history (1-10 ATS L11!) to contend with. (last win = '93). Take the points.

"Styles make fights" and this particular matchup isn't a great one for the Chiefs.  Sure, they are getting back pass-rushing specialist Justin Houston and Texans' QB Brian Hoyer (1st career playoff start) shouldn't scare anyone. But it's the Chiefs' offense that has me concerned here. As noted earlier, they'll be facing a tremendous defense, one that does an excellent job defending the pass (particularly shorter routes, which are KC's bread and butter) and the run. We know Alex Smith struggles to push the ball downfield and relying on the run game may not work here either. Over its L3 games, the Texans have allowed just 112 rushing yards - total. For the season, they allow just 77 rush YPG here at home.  Usually, when I choose to play against the Chiefs it is because they're favored and their offense isn't likely to create a lot of separation. Andy Reid's team is just 1-3 SU/ATS its last four games, failing to top 23 points three times. Houston allows just 15.6 points per game here at home.

So much of Kansas City's success this year was predicated on forcing turnovers. They were #2 in the league in TO margin at +14 (only Carolina at +20 was better). During this 10-game win streak of theirs, there hasn't been a single game where they didn't take the ball away at least once. But again, I'll reference those late season wins against San Diego, Cleveland and Oakland. Those were the only three of the 10 that they didn't force multiple turnovers and every time they failed to cover. Houston has turned the ball over multiple times just once in its last nine games and that game came w/ TJ Yates starting. Provided Hoyer doesn't turn the ball over here (which was the issue in the Week 1 loss), the Texans have a great chance at taking this game outright. Though I would highly recommend "shopping around" for a line of +3.5 (play stands regardless) as "the hook" can sometimes make all the difference in the world. 10* Houston

10* Florida (1:30 ET):  Had you "bought low" on LSU over the last seven days, the reward would have been a pair of outright victories to open SEC play as the Tigers first went to Vanderbilt (as 10-pt dogs) and won 90-82 and then followed it up w/ an even more impressive "bell to bell" beatdown of Kentucky (85-67) at home. I was on Ben Simmons and company last Saturday at Vandy, but after watching them cover the spread by almost 40 points in the last two games, I'd say it's probably time to "sell high" on this team. This afternoon, they visit Florida, who is off a loss (at Tennessee) and thus won't be lacking motivation. The Tigers still have defensive issues, particularly on the road, and the Gators are a much different animal here in Gainesville.  Lay the points.

It probably goes w/o saying that Tuesday's win over Kentucky stands out as LSU's "best" performance of the season. It's also clear that John Calipari probably has his worst team in awhile in Lexington. Nevertheless, we won't take anything away from the Tigers for what they did, but it was at home and Tim Quarterman's 21 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists were certainly all unexpected. It also helped that the Wildcats shot only 32.1 percent in the first half, turned it over 14 times in the game (led to 22 LSU points) and missed 11 of 23 free throws. Those elements certainly won't be present every game for the Tigers and I submit to you the fact that they are still just 1-4 SU away from Baton Rouge, allowing 84.2 points per game.

Defensively, it is obvious who the better team is going to be Saturday. Florida allows just 63.5 points per game on 38.2 percent shooting and considering LSU shoots only 40.5% on the road (including neutral site games), expect Simmons and the rest of his teammates to struggle here. Also, when Florida gets its own three-point shooting going, look out. So far, they are at a very low 28.9 percent from behind the arc, but w/ LSU allowing its opposition to make 38.2 percent on the road, today could be the day for the turnaround. What happened Wednesday in Knoxville (Tennessee scoring 53 pts in the 1st half!) was an outlier and I'll call for the Gators to bounce back here. 10* Florida