10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): The 49ers have certainly looked vulnerable the L3 weeks, but here they are standing at 9-1 SU coming into SNF on NBC. Those L3 games were all against division rivals that traditionally give them trouble (Arizona & Seattle). Here they'll be hosting a Green Bay team that certainly appears stronger on paper (at least compared to the Cardinals), however, when you dig a little deeper, you discover the Packers aren't nearly as dominant as their 8-2 record would seem to indicate. They've been outgained on the year and most of their wins have been nailbiters. That the Pack are coming off a bye is irrelevant to me in this situation. Lay the short number. 

The 49ers were lucky to cover, let alone win last week against Arizona. They scored the game-winning TD w/ just 31 seconds left on the clock, then picked up a Cardinals fumble on the final play and ran that in for a TD to make it a 36-26 final. For some that fumble return changed the ATS result (my apologies if you were caught on the wrong end of that one). However, let's not totally writeoff what the Niners did, okay? They outgained the Cards 442-266 for the game and had a huge edge in yards per play (6.7 vs. 4.3). Though the defense has suddenly allowed an average of 26 PPG the L3 wks, it still ranks second in both yards and points allowed for the year.

Green Bay's defense turned in one of its better efforts two weeks ago when I cashed the Under in their game vs. Carolina as my 10* Total of the Month. But they had to hold off the Panthers on the final play (inside the 10-yd line) to preserve the 24-16 victory. Something to keep an eye on here is the trenches as Green Bay can't run the ball at all on the road (82 YPG) while the Niners are averaging 159 YPG rushing at home. At home, the 49ers are +15.4 points and 152.6 yards per game. The Packers, despite being 3-1 on the road, are -123.5 YPG! This line indicates these teams are even on a neutral field, but that's simply not the case.  10* San Francisco

10* Carolina (7:05 ET): Two teams moving in vastly different directions meet tonight in the Motor City. Carolina, who won last night, has gone 5-1 in its last six games. Meanwhile, Detroit has lost five in a row, including last night’s 5-1 setback in New Jersey. The Hurricanes have already blown out the Red Wings once this year (7-3) and I see no reason why it won’t happen again on Sunday. 

The Canes have scored at least four goals in each of their last five wins. It was a 4-2 win over Florida last night. Considering they scored seven the last time they played the Red Wings, it should be another big night offensively here. This is one of the top scoring teams in the league for the season (3.5 goals per game) and they also get off plenty of shots on a per game basis. Detroit is giving up 3.8 goals per game as well, which is the worst average in the league. 

As if this matchup wasn’t already unfavorable enough for the Red Wings, they’ll also be playing without their leading scorer tonight. Anthony Mantha, who has 12 goals and 23 points, left the game in the first period last night. While the injury remains undisclosed at press time, it is known that Mantha is going to miss “at least a week.” Detroit gave up four goals in the third period of last night’s 5-1 loss, so their collective spirit probably couldn’t be any lower coming into this second game of a back to back. They already have the fewest points (17) and worst goal differential (-37) in the entire league. 10* Carolina

10* Over Nets/Knicks (6:05 ET): Brooklyn isn’t exactly the safest bet in the NBA right now, but they have to be excited about the prospect of catching the Knicks in the second night of a back to back on Sunday. Here at MSG, the Knicks lost last night to the Spurs, 111-104 as 2.5-pt underdogs. That final score also just barely stayed Under the total. Speaking of going Under, that’s what the last five matchups between these teams have done. Not this one though. Take the Over.

It was a much higher O/U line when these area rivals met on 10.25, the second game of the year for both teams. The Nets won that game 113-109, a final score that would mean an Over tonight. But the number was 229 last month. When looking at tonight’s O/U line, that’s quite a change. Kyrie Irving being out is probably the reason for the big decrease. But Brooklyn isn’t good defensively, especially on the road where they give up 118.7 PPG. The Knicks have an even lower defensive efficiency rating. 

The Nets have gone Under in each of their last three games. But even without Irving, they still managed to score 116 points two nights ago against the Kings. The Nets last two games were both at home and they turned in much better defensive efforts than we’re accustomed to seeing from them. My sense is they’ll regress defensively out on the road. The Nets are still playing at one of the five fastest tempos in the league. The Knicks let San Antonio shoot 53.3% overall last night and 52.2% from three-point range. 10* Over Nets/Knicks

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): Those in Carolina that were looking to make the case that Kyle Allen was a better option at QB than Cam Newton now have a little "egg on their face" after watching Allen regress mightily the last few weeks. I was always willing to concede that Allen is better than a banged up Newton. But the notion he was better than a healthy former league MVP was somewhat laughable. The Panthers now sit at 5-5 and are big dogs this week at New Orleans. This will easily be the most points they've been catching for any game this season. Despite what I just wrote about Allen, I'm willing to take the points here as I'm not nearly as high on New Orleans as the market is.

The Saints crushed me last week by beating Tampa Bay 34-17. The Bucs were my Game of the the Year and I thought an outstanding play as a home dog. Unfortunately, they committed four turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable. Total yardage in the game was basically even and the Bucs averaged more yards per play. Even w/ Drew Brees back, I still have some suspicions about a New Orleans team that has been fortunate to go 5-0 SU this season in one-score games. Four of those five wins were with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. But Brees was back when the Saints lost outright to the Falcons here at home two weeks ago, 26-9 as 14-pt chalk. 

Carolina found itself on the WRONG end of a +4 turnover margin last week against Atlanta. That and allowing a special teams TD spelled disaster for the Panthers in their own horrible home loss to the Falcons (29-3 as 4-pt chalk). But prior to last week, Carolina had suffered only one loss all year by more than eight points. New Orleans has failed to cover five of the last six times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. An Atlanta pass rush that had previously been lackluster gave Brees and the Saints fits two weeks ago. The Panthers lead the league in sacks. As far as the Carolina offense, don't forget about Christian McCaffery, who leads the league in yards from scrimmage. 8* Carolina

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): I'm not ready to give up on the Buccaneers just yet, even though SIX STRAIGHT ATS losses might seem to indicate that it's time to rethink things. I haven't been on all those losses, or even most of them for that matter. But I did have the Bucs last week as my Game of the Year and that was about as frustrating a watch as I can remember. This hard-luck team just can't seem to get out of its own way. Despite losing to the Saints 34-17 last week, TB actually finished with slightly more yards for the game and outgained New Orleans on a per play basis. But FOUR turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable - proved to be their undoing. 

Now it's onto Atlanta where all of a sudden the Falcons seem to be pointed in the right direction. You may recall it was two weeks ago that I took the Dirty Birds plus the points in the Big Easy and the pulled off the shocker of the year, beating the Saints 26-9 as a 14-point dog. They then made it B2B division road wins as they slammed Carolina last week 29-3 (were +4.5). After producing all of seven in the first eight games (went 1-7), the Falcons' pass rush has exploded for 11 sacks these L2 games. But it's important to check the box score a little bit more. Atlanta was just the opposite of Tampa Bay last week in that they benefited from a +4 TO margin.

The Falcons beating the Saints two weeks ago is was proof again that "anything can happen" in the NFL. So there's no reason to give up on the Bucs. They have a positive yardage differential for the season. On the injury front, the news is good w/ LB Carl Nassib set to return. Tampa Bay's defense is bad against the pass, but is #2 against the run w/ Nassib being their best stopper. Atlanta is going to be w/o RB Devonta Freeman and TE Austin Hooper this week. WR Julio Jones has also missed practice time. The L2 games aside, the Falcons have been far from a pointspread juggernaut themselves. They are 0-2 ATS as favorites this season, losing both games outright. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): This was originally going to the Sunday Night Game, but was flexed out in favor of Packers-49ers (which I am also playing). This Seahawks-Eagles matchup happens to be the rare instance of the public loading up on the underdog. I suppose it's fairly easy to understand why. Seattle has covered seven straight times in the road underdog role and is a perfect 3-0 outright as a road dog this season. They are also 8-2 (Philly just 5-5) and coming off a bye. Before that bye week, they handed the 49ers their first loss of the season in an upset on MNF. 

But I still see some flaws w/ Russell Wilson and company. This team is extremely fortunate to have gone 7-1 SU this year in one score games. Their only win of 2019 that was by more than a touchdown came back in Week 4 at Arizona. Five of their wins have been by 4 pts or less. Their last two wins were both overtime games. On the year, they have a point differential of only +21. The Seahawks simply do not have the statistical profile of a team you'd expect to be 8-2. Down the stretch, I'm going to act accordingly and look to fade when appropriate. This is one of those times. 

Though Lane Johnson remains in the concussion protocol, the Eagles still should be getting more respect coming into this game. They hung tough w/ New England last week here at home, even jumping out to an early 10-0 lead. Really, it's a game they could have won. Though battling some injuries, I don't believe anything is truly "wrong" w/ the Eagles offense. The defense is allowing just 18.2 PPG at home. The last three games, the Eagles have allowed just 44 points total. 8* Philadelphia 

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams going in more opposite directions than these two Pac 12 South rivals. Utah saw it's impressive run continue last week w/ a 49-3 beatdown of UCLA. The Utes have now won and covered six straight since suffering their only loss of the year - on a Friday night at USC. Those six wins have come by an average of 34.1 PPG!  Clearly, this is a team worthy of its Top 10 ranking in the CFP (currently #7) and they appear to be on a collision course w/ fellow 1-loss team Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game. 

Speaking of Oregon, Arizona lost to them last week by score of 34-6. That leaves the Wildcats on the cusp of missing out on a bowl for a second straight season, hardly the way Kevin Sumlin envisioned his Tucson tenure starting. They are currently 4-6 SU and would need to win the next two games (at Arizona St next week) just to be bowl eligible. Given the pointspread in this game, the likelihood of an outright win is rather minute. But the pointspread is called "the great equalizer" for a reason. I see a desperate home team getting a lot of points and like the situation. 

I realize Arizona has failed to cover five in a row. But coupled w/ Utah's six-game ATS run, this game just feels like it's going to be tighter than expected. Getting blown out again this week would be a severe blow to the Sumlin regime, which has already seen midseason turnover on the staff. It's worth noting the Utes do give up 19.2 PPG on the road (about 8.0 more than season average) and while they only allowed 3 pts last week, UCLA certainly moved the ball on them. Not that they would have won, but five Bruins turnovers were huge in that game, especially since one was returned for a TD and another occurred at the Utah goal line. UCLA also threw an INT in Utah territory and missed a FG. When it came to covering the spread, those plays were the difference. Hopefully, Arizona plays a clean game. If they do, look for them to cover. 8* Arizona

10* Under Portland St/San Jose St (10:00 ET): San Jose State's athletic department is one of the more beleaguered in the country right now, at least among schools that have D-I football and basketball programs. There's no scandal here; the teams are simply bad. Last year's hoops team finished 4-27 SU! The good news is this year's squad is already one win away from matching that win total! Tonight, the 3-2 Spartans host a Portland State team still smarting off a loss to an area rival. Take the Under. 

Portland State hails from the Big Sky. But the non-conference game they lost on Wednesday to Portland will sting as much any loss the Vikings suffer the rest of this season. Not only did they struggle to make shots (40.9 FG%), especially from three-point range (4 of 22), but they let the opponent shoot 52.8% overall. All three PSU games where you could have bet the total have now gone Over. But it's important to note the Vikings' shooting struggles are not necessarily confined to just that last game. 

So far this year, Portland State is shooting just 28.8% from three-point range. San Jose State is actually worse at 27.0%. Remember that the three-point line was moved back in College Basketball this year and I expect teams across the country to now struggle in that area. Speaking of struggling to shoot, Portland State made only 40% of its shots in two previous road games (Indiana, Hawaii). SJSU has had two games this year where they scored only 57 (against Portland) and 39 points. 10* Under Portland State/San Jose State

10* Arizona State (7:30 ET): Oregon is #6 in the latest CFP ranking and may actually have a path to the playoff were there to be some late-season chaos in the SEC. But of course, the Ducks must handle their own business between now and Selection Sunday. They've already clinched the Pac 12 North and a likely showdown w/ fellow 1-loss team Utah looms in the Conference Championship Game. It's ironic that the SEC holds Oregon's fate because the Ducks' lone loss came in the season opener vs. Auburn, a game which they led for all but nine seconds. 

Arizona State is just trying to get bowl eligible. This will be the fifth try for Herm Edwards team, which enters in on a four-game losing streak. Were they to lose again this week, then the Sun Devils would need to win next week's Territorial Cup against Arizona for that elusive sixth victory. They'd obviously like to avoid that as there's an ever-so-slight chance the Wildcats could also enter that game needed a win for bowl eligibility. I like this spot for Coach Herm as he is 8-5 ATS as a dog since returning to the College game w/ six outright wins. The three times he's been a DD dog (2-1 ATS, one SU win), his defense has allowed just 55 total pts. Going back to before Edwards got here, ASU is 9-2 ATS the L11 times it has been a DD dog, including SIX outright wins. 

Furthermore, Oregon has not had the most pleasant experiences when visiting The Grand Canyon State. They've lost three of the past four times playing either Arizona or Arizona State and were favored in all three losses. That includes their previous visit to Tempe (2017) where they were -15 and lost 37-35. Not saying the Ducks lose this one, but it's a lot of weight to lay. They were pretty fortunate to beat Washington and Washington State (both wins by 4 pts or less). Three of ASU's five losses have been by five points or less and only one (Utah) by more than 10. Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels has still looked good during the losing skid, save for that Utah game, completing 69% of his passes w/ a 9-0 TD-INT ratio in those other three games. ASU should score enough to at least cover here. 10* Arizona State

10* Missouri (7:30 ET): Well, Mizzou has definitely done a good job of letting us down the last two weeks. One of the two losses was somewhat understandable as they were stuck w/ a backup QB against Georgia. But after teasing his return for that game and not delivering, Kelly Bryant did return last week vs. Florida and it shockingly meant little as the Tigers were held to only six points in a 4th straight loss. The first three losses were all on the road. Now the Tigers are in the position of still needing a win just to become bowl eligible. I think they'll get it on Senior Night. Lay the short number here. 

Like Missouri, Tennessee comes into this game needing one more win for bowl eligibility. Same as the Tigers, the Vols are going to be favored next week against a last place conference foe. So, as far as the postseason goes, both teams remain in fine shape. But the difference is right now UT seems to have the "momentum" (hate that word!) after three straight wins. The Volunteers are 5-0 ATS the L5 games and 4-1 SU w/ the only loss coming against Alabama. Still, I think it's important to look at the whole picture and not just a small sample size. Missouri was once ranked and has been favored in all but two games. Tennessee hasn't sniffed the Top 25 and has been a dog in every SEC game this season! Things are due to turn for both teams. 

After scoring 31+ in each of the first six games, Missouri has scored only 27 pts total its last four games. Not to keep using that same word, but I cannot stress just how "shocking" this freefall truly is. Good for them then that Tennessee has averaged just 11.0 points and 255.3 yards per game on the road this season. The Tigers' defense is allowing just 13.5 PPG here in Columbia. So the Volunteers aren't going to score much. Not to make excuses, but LW's game vs. Florida swung on a couple bad calls that went against Mizzou. It was just a 6-3 game at halftime. They won't be falling for Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt being so "coy" with his QB situation (Jarrett Guarantano is getting the bulk of the snaps). 10* Missouri 

10* Over Bulls/Hornets (7:05 ET): Both teams played last night and lost. Chicago fell to Miami, 116-108 at home, while Charlotte dropped a 125-118 decision in Washington. Seven of the last eight times these teams have played, the game has gone Over. That includes three straight. They opened the season against one another here in the Queen City and the Hornets won a wild 126-125 game. Despite that score, we're basically getting the same O/U line. Go Over. 

The Hornets are not a good defensive team. They are bottom six in efficiency. They just allowed the Wizards, who aren't a good team, to shoot 52%. Speaking of efficiency, Charlotte was a lot more efficient offensively than Chicago in that first meeting. They won despite taking 17 less shots. The key was going 23 of 44 from three-point range. Not sure that's a sustainable blueprint, but the Hornets should score a decent number tonight. They average 110 PPG at home.

Chicago has not shot the ball well so far this season, but this is a matchup where they can change that. The Bulls fell behind Miami big last night, but made a game of it late w/ a 41-point 4th quarter. They're playing at a pretty fast tempo this year, which helps because they haven't been all that efficient on the offensive end. They've scored at least 108 in five of their last six games. This just seems like a low total for two teams that both went Over last night. 10* Over Bulls/Hornets

8* Under Memphis/South Florida (4:00 ET): #18 Memphis has certainly been unkind to Under bettors this year, delivering seven consecutive Overs. But it should be pointed out that last week's needed a blocked punt return for a TD (by Houston) in the final minutes. The blocked punt came in the least urgent of situations too; with Memphis leading 45-20. The Tigers' defense actually turned in a solid effort, allowing just 256 total yards. When Houston got the ball on the Memphis' side of the field following a turnover, they were held to just a field goal after a 6-play, 8-yard drive. 

South Florida "should have" beaten Cincinnati last week. It was a game they outgained the opponent 438-278, had a 10-0 lead at halftime and never trailed until the final play. That final play was 37-yard FG w/ no time remaining. The Bulls' defense should at least hold its head high though. Cincinnati had scored 46 and 48 points the previous two weeks. USF has been pretty good at stopping the opponent all season, really. They've held five of the last six opponents to 23 points or less. While only one team (Temple) has been able to hold Memphis below 35 pts since the season opener, the Bulls just might be capable of doing so here at home. 

The problem for USF though is going to be an offense that really isn't capable of scoring a ton. Three of the last four games, the Bulls have been held to 17 points or fewer. The one exception was the hideous East Carolina defense. Against top 50 teams, the Bulls' offense is averaging less than 10 points per game this year! That is very bad! Though Memphis must win here to keep it's New Year's Six Bowl Game hopes alive, it's really all about next week's showdown vs. Cincinnati and then a potential rematch in the AAC Title Game. The defense will do its job, but so will USF's, which has allowed just three touchdowns in the past two games. 8* Under Memphis/South Florida

8* Over Texas A&M/Georgia (3:30 ET): This is an awfully low total for a game where both offenses are averaging more than 32.0 PPG. Of course, you have to factor in the great Georgia defense (10.5 PPG allowed) which has led to five straight Unders for them. But A&M will bring arguably the best offense they've seen in Athens all season, or at least since the Notre Dame game. The Aggies have won four straight and averaged 37.0 PPG while doing so. They just gained 540 total yards on a South Carolina defense that had held UGA to only 17 points. Take the Over in this one.

Texas A&M has three losses, but they were to Alabama (47-28), Clemson (24-10) and Auburn (28-20). That has them, arguably, as the best 3-loss team in the country. QB Mond is completing 64% of his pass attempts this season for nearly 2,500 yards. Said Georgia HC Kirby Smart, "Their receiving corps will be one of the best we've played against." This is a low total for an A&M game. This season has seen their games average 54.3 PPG. This'll be the lowest number for any game to date and they've gone Over 2 of the 3 that were below 55 points, which makes sense.

Believe it or not, but this will be the first time these schools have met as SEC rivals. While Georgia does average 32.4 PPG, they've been below that number in five straight games. In fact, they've failed to top 27 during that time. But this could be a breakout day as they honor the seniors in the final home game at Samford Stadium. A&M has allowed only 20 points the L2 weeks, but has also given up some high point totals this year, not just to the big boys either. They allowed 27 against Arkansas and 30 to Mississippi State. The Over is 6-1 the Aggies' L7 games vs. teams that have winning records. 8* Over Texas A&M/Georgia 

8* Under Boston College/Notre Dame (2:30 ET): This seems like an exceptionally high total for a game involving these two teams. Part of that is the fact B.C. has gone Over in five straight games. But still, seven of the last eight times these "Holy War" rivals have met, the game has gone Under. The exception was the last one, played two years ago, when Notre Dame won 49-20 in Chesnut Hill. Recent BC games have seen some outrageous scoring and the Fighting Irish did just hang 52 on Navy last week. But BC only managed 7 pts in its only game vs. a ranked foe this season (Clemson) and Notre Dame's defense has been pretty good, save for the Michigan disaster. Take the Under. 

Ever since QB Anthony Brown went down with an injury, Boston College's offense has become totally one-dimensional. Lucky for them, that one-dimension involves running the ball w/ A.J. Dillon. Two weeks ago against Syracuse, the Eagles gained a school-record 691 yds of total offense. But almost 500 of those came on the ground! Maybe they feel good about themselves going into this game as ND just allowed 281 yds rushing against Navy. But Navy's triple option is a "special animal" and the Irish actually allowed only 4.4 yards per carry. Facing such a run-heavy offense the week prior to B.C. should actually be to the defense's benefit. 

Coming off a bye week, Boston College's defense should be well prepared for QB Ian Book and the rest of the Notre Dame offense. That's going to be key for them because the Eagles don't figure to do much scoring in this game. The Fighting Irish have allowed more than 23 points in only one game this season and it was the disaster in Ann Arbor. They are 6-0 SU in South Bend, allowing an average of just 16.8 PPG. Given that B.C. is likely to be down big in this game, they'll have to abandon the run early (like they did vs. Clemson when the ran for just 97 yds) and passing just isn't their strong suit. 8* Under Boston College/Notre Dame

8* Memphis (1:00 ET): The Tigers were a team I expected to have on my "overrated" list this year, but the James Wiseman suspension has actually created a situation where they're now underrated. Penny Hardaway's team may have only managed to beat Arkansas Little-Rock by 10 points, but my suspicion is we will be getting an 'A effort' here. Saturday afternoon finds them hosting an unbeaten Ole Miss team that has yet to play a road game. Lay the (very) short number.

Ole Miss' four victories this season have all come by double digits. While that may sound impressive, it's less so when you consider the Rebels were favorites of at least 18.5 points in every game. They've looked good defensively, but have yet to face a team as talented as Memphis. The last two seasons have seen the Rebels go just 7-15 in "true" road games. They've also lost 23 of 29 as underdogs. I don't expect Blake Hinson to be that much of a factor today in his season debut.

Memphis is a talented team even w/o Wiseman and I expect them to show that here. They did not shoot particularly well against Little Rock, making only 38.7% of their field goal attempts, including 23.8% from three-point range. Yet they still won by 10. I think that bodes well moving forward as you can expect the Tigers to have better shooting nights. This is a chance for them to show that they remain a force, even when Wiseman is sidelined. The team has covered five straight times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 8* Memphis 

10* Under Rockets/Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers finally got Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the court at the same time Wednesday. The result was exactly what they'd hoped for, a 107-104 triumph over a good Boston team. But it wasn't all "wine and roses" as they turned it over 23 times, 10 of those coming from their aforementioned All-Star duo. Also of note is that the game stayed Under despite going into overtime. The Clippers have been going Under a lot lately (9-3 L12 games) as have the Rockets (9-2 L11), who are the opposition tonight. Look for another Under. 

I had the Under in Houston's last game, which ended up being a 105-95 loss to Denver. That was pretty easily the Rockets' lowest scoring game all year (1st time being held below 100 pts) and James Harden (the NBA's leading scorer at 38.4 PPG) saw his streak of eight straight games w/ 30+ pts come to an end as he "only" scored 27. As a team, the Rockets shot just 12 of 38 from three-point range. It would be easy to say Harden and the rest of the team will have a bounce back game here, but the Clippers are a strong defensive team, made even stronger now that both Leonard and George are playing.

We saw what the Clips are capable of defensively on Wednesday when they held Boston to just 39.4% shooting. A major reason for the excitement over the Leonard-George pairing is what the duo brings on the defensive end. But truthfully, LA was already a strong defensive team as they've now held six of their last seven opponent under 40% shooting including the last three. They are allowing 100.0 PPG on the nose here at home. But they've also failed to top 100 in regulation in B2B games. Something else that's under the radar is the fact Houston has held its last five opponents to an average of just 102.6 PPG. 10* Under Rockets/Clippers 

10* Cleveland (8:35 ET): After a surprisingly decent start to the season (4-5 SU first 10 games), the Cavs have lost five in a row while failing to cover the spread in the last four. There's really nothing "out of the ordinary" to help explain the skid, although they have faced both Philadelphia and Miami twice. Those are two of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Tonight, the Cavs face one of the more improved teams out West, Dallas. While it may seem like the underdog is "up against it" here, it's a lot of points they're getting and we've already seen the Mavs lose outright once (to the Knicks) as a favorite of this size. In fact, the Mavs lost twice to the Knicks this year! Take the points. 

Dallas certainly was NOT upset in its last game as they crushed Golden State by 48. That was easily their biggest MOV of the season and their third straight win/cover to boot. Of course, beating the Warriors doesn't mean what it used to as they've been decimated by injuries It's hard to type this, but the Dubs are the worst team in the league right now! The Mavs led 44-16 by the end of the 1st quarter, Luka Doncic had 33 pts by halftime and the team ended up shooting 57.9% from three-point range. Needless to say, it's highly unlikely that they'll play that well again the rest of the season.

A win like that is going to catch the eye of the oddsmakers, however. Thus, Dallas is a DD favorite for just the third time all year. The first was an outright loss to the Knicks. The other was the Golden State game. Those are obviously very different results. Dallas is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite and 0-2 ATS when coming off a DD win though. The Cavs get Tristan Thompson back tonight (sat out last game) and I expect this to go much differently than when the teams met in Cleveland earlier this month. This is all about fading a team that's off a performance it cannot possibly match. 10* Cleveland

10* Utah State (7:00 ET): This will be my second time taking Utah State this week, although this time the competition is a whole lot stiffer and they're down in Jamaica. On Monday, the Aggies (ranked #14 in the country) blew out an overmatched UTSA team 82-50 to move to 5-0 on the year. Now they face LSU, who will be the most challenging opponent to date. But USU should be up for said challenge. Like I said Monday, this team is absolutely worthy of its ranking. They deserve to be favored by more than this as it's the names of the front of the jerseys giving us value here. 

LSU drubbed MD-Baltimore County in its last game, 77-50 as a 17.5-pt favorite. But that was a game where the Tigers benefited from some atrocious shooting by the opposition as the Retrievers made only 5 of 33 three-point attempts. They can't rely on that happening again tonight as Utah State is shooting very well (48.7%) on its way to averaging 86 PPG. Now the competition hasn't been that tough for the Aggies so far. But this is still the 1st time since the 1986-87 season that they have scored 80+ points in their first five games. They are 21-10 SU the L3 seasons after scoring 80+ in their previous game.

LSU actually trailed UMBC early due to the fact they didn't make a single basket in the first 7:10 of the game! They would eventually overwhelm the Retrievers with their size, but that won't happen here. The Tigers don't shoot well from 3-pt range (28.6%) and turnovers have been an issue so far as well (especially in the loss to VCU). Utah State has had four different players lead the team in scoring these first five games while holding the last four opponents all below 40% shooting. They are the superior side in this one and that's not fully reflected in this line. 10* Utah State

8* UMBC (2:00 ET): UMBC is basically the "Appalachian State of College Hoops" in the sense that the program will always be associated w/ one famous upset. It was 20 months ago that the Retrievers did the unthinkable as they became the first 16-seed to ever beat a 1-seed, doing so at Virginia's expense. That upset is all the more remarkable considering Virginia bounced back and won the National Championship last season. In case you're wondering how UMBC did last season, they went 21-13 overall (11-5 in the America East), but did not qualify for the NCAA Tourney. 

This year, the Retrievers have started 4-1. The one loss came Tuesday at LSU, in emphatic fashion as the final score was 77-50. UMBC shot just 31.1% in the contest, basically giving them no chance against a team with superior athletes and size. Though it should be mentioned the Retrievers actually did enjoy an early 16-10 advantage. They held LSU w/o a field goal for the first 7:10 of the game! That they still lost by 27 shows how quickly things fell apart. Now it's on to Jamaica for a tournament and the 1st round opponent is undefeated Eastern Michigan (4-0). 

Like UMBC, Eastern Michigan started its season by playing several non-DI schools. All were double digit wins (by 13 or more), but nothing can really be ascertained from those. Then the Eagles did pull an upset last Saturday in Denton, beating North Texas 56-51 as a nine-point underdog. But don't let that fool you, UMBC is still the better team here. The Retrievers were 5 of 33 from three-point range against LSU, which won't be happening again, and they do a good job at forcing turnovers. EMU does not have the length of an LSU, which bothered the UMBC shooters so much in the last game. 8* UMBC

8* NC State (8:00 ET): When Georgia Tech was initially bet up for this Thursday night matchup, I didn't understand the line move at all. NC State, for all their issues right now, still has a chance at becoming bowl eligible (if they were to win out). As injury-laden as the Wolfpack might be right now, their issues don't run as deep as those for Ga Tech, who is experiencing the expected growing pains in moving from the triple option to a more "pro-style" offense. Last week's 45-0 loss to Virginia Tech shows the Yellow Jackets still have a ways to go. Take the underdog here. 

Now NC State has lost four in row themselves - both SU and ATS. But a win here would potentially set up a game w/ North Carolina next week where the winner becomes bowl eligible and the loser stays home for the postseason. The game will take place in Raleigh. While November has been ugly so far, let's note that the Wolfpack did outgain Louisville last week in a 34-20 loss, 377-326. They led at halftime. But their undoing was a -3 turnover margin. Incredibly, NC State's defense has not forced a turnover since a win over Ball State on Sept 22nd! That can't continue. Georgia Tech has been pretty generous in giving the ball away this season (1.7 turnovers per game), so look for the Wolfpack's turnover-less streak to end here. That'll be key to victory. 

Georgia Tech is just 2-8 and has nothing left to play for this season. Their offense is averaging just 16.5 PPG and they got steamrolled last week here at home, 45-0. Virginia Tech outgained them 451-132 in what was a major step back for HC Geoff Collins' first year in Atlanta. While the Yellow Jackets have typically owned this ACC rivalry (12-3 SU L15), those were better teams they were putting on the field. This team is last in the country in red zone efficiency. NC State has won five straight non-division ACC contests and the motivation of becoming bowl eligible is the difference in this one. Georgia Tech has been favored only one time this year vs. a FBS opponent. 8* NC State

8* Appalachian State (7:00 ET): An outright win here by Charlotte would make it three straight upsets for them and I don't see that happening. The last two games have seen the 49ers beat Davidson 71-58 (+10) and Wake Forest 67-65 (+2), but both of those upsets took place at home. The team's only prior road trip resulted in a five-point loss to James Madison (the season opener). App State has played twice the number of games (6) as had Charlotte and after an ugly performance Monday at UNC-Greensboro, they'll be eager to bounce back. Lay the short number.

These two Tar Heel State schools are separated by less than 120 miles and they've met rather regularly through the years. This will be the 1st matchup since 2016, but also the 10th since 2001. Charlotte has taken the previous four, but none of the players from that last meeting are still around and the coaching staffs are different as well. Sunday's win over Wake Forest, which required overtime, makes the 49ers prone to a letdown here. The win snapped a 13-game losing streak to ACC opponents. The team has still lost 22 of its last 27 road games. 

Appalachian State is battle-tested in its own right as they just played a mini-Tournament in Greensboro. Things didn't end well w/ a dreadful shooting night (29.1 FG%) against the hosts, but the Mountaineers did hold UNC Greensboro to 32.1% shooting as well. Since losing the season opener to Michigan (a game where we cashed plus the points), ASU has not allowed more than 62 pts in any game. Having also dropped their most recent home game (last Friday), there will be no shortage of motivation for the home team tonight. 8* Appalachian State

8* Washington State (7:00 ET): Omaha is not only playing its third straight road game, but also its second in three days and it's a long trip from Dayton, OH (where they were Tuesday) to Pullman, WA. Seeing as the Mavericks have dropped all three road games this year - by an average of 18 PPG - it's pretty difficult to like their chances here tonight. Washington State has shown signs of improvement following the dreadful 11-21 campaign last season. This is one of those games the Cougars will need to take advantage of, as they figure to be an underdog most nights this season. 

Wazzu's season started w/ a 31-point win over Seattle here in Pullman. Then, it was an ugly shooting night at Santa Clara, a game they lost 70-62. It was a six-minute stretch in the second half - where they were 0 of 8 from the field - that killed their chances there. While the Cougars did not cover against Idaho State in their return home Sunday, they did at least turn in another solid defensive effort, holding the Bengals to 61 points. An injury to PG Jaylen Shead isn't great, but this is arguably the weakest opponent that WSU will face all season. 

 Omaha did not defend well against Dayton, allowing the Flyers to shoot almost 58% for the entire game. It was their second straight game allowing 80 or more points. In addition, the Mavericks have not shot the ball well on the road this year, averaging just 40% from the field. 1st year HC Kyle Smith has a deep team here in Pullman as eight players are averaging double digit minutes. So the Shead injury may not be that big of a deal. CJ Elleby is still the team leader in points at 20.0 per game. The home team certainly has enough to win this game by a comfortable margin. 8* Washington State

8* Towson (7:00 ET): This is a live dog we've got on our hands Thursday and not just because Xavier comes in at 0-4 ATS. Towson just played Florida really tough (lost by only 6 in Gainesvile) and despite what the pollsters have to say about it, we believe the Gators are a better team than the Musketeers. Xavier might be #18 in the AP Top 25 right now, but they don't even make the Top 45 in our own power rankings. Among the teams currently in the Top 25, the Musketeers appear to be the most overrated. Definitely take the points in this 1st Rd matchup of the Charleston Classic. 

While Xavier is 0-4 ATS, they are also 4-0 straight up and that's the record the coaching staff cares about. Still, the last two games have been very tight as they beat Missouri by five in overtime and then Missouri State by only three. Though Missouri State is the preseason favorite to win the MVC, it was a game the Musketeers were expected to win by 13.5 points. The Bears' 1-3-1 zone defense gave Xavier all sorts of fits as they could only make 5 of 22 three-point attempts. But three-point woes were not new for this team. They were 3 of 21 from behind the arc against Missouri and are shooting just 20.6% there for the year. Remember the line was moved back this year. Xavier is clearly struggling to adjust. 

Towson has permitted its first four opponents to shoot just 27.3% from behind the 3-pt arc, so expect those Xavier struggles to continue. Towson led Florida with just 5:46 remaining before going cold from the field. I know the tendency is to view the Gators as a disappointing team right now, but they came into the year ranked #6 in the country! Towson may only be 2-2 SU, but those two losses were by a total of 10 points. They've had a different leading scorer in each game. 8* Towson

10* Under Rockets/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Two of the best teams from the West square off in the thin air of Denver on Wednesday night. The Rockets' resurgence is one of the big stories in the league right now as they have won and covered eight straight games. That after starting the year 0-6 ATS. Denver has won six of seven, their only loss coming in a game where they were 10-point home favorites over Atlanta. While both teams scored a ton in their last games, it won't be that easy this time around. Take the Under. 

Houston scored 132 pts in a win over Portland Monday. While they didn't shoot the lights out, James Harden finished w/ 36 points and Russell Westbrook had 28 plus a triple double. It was the Rockets' second straight game scoring at least 125. But prior to Monday, they'd gone Under in five straight games. The Under is 6-1 in all of their road games. Harden is the NBA's leading scorer at 39.2 PPG and has gone over 30 in eight straight. But he's probably due for an "off night" at some point. Denver is allowing opponents to shoot just 42.9% at home and Houston is 25-11 Under as an underdog the L3 seasons. 

The Nuggets are 9-3 Under in all of their games so far. Not only are they limiting the opposition's field goal percentage, they aren't shooting so well themselves. For the season, Denver is at 44.0%. They average 106.9 PPG. Don't look for them to come close to the 55% shooting we saw vs. Memphis or the 131 points scored in that game. What's impressive is the Nuggets holding half their opponents below 100 points. They are 3rd in the West in points allowed and 7th overall in defensive efficiency. Look for this game to be bit lower scoring than what's expected. 10* Under Rockets/Nuggets

10* Over Capitals/Rangers (8:05 ET): I think it's safe to call Washington the best team in the league right now. They have 36 points, which is five more than anybody else. They've also scored a league-high 89 goals, contributing to a +20 goal differential (2nd best behind Boston). They just beat the Bruins on Saturday, 3-2, and then followed that up w/ a 5-2 win over Anaheim on Monday. Hitting the road does not bother this team as they are 10-1-1 away from the Nation's Capital. The Over is 14-2-1 their L17 games. 

The Rangers enter tonight at 8-8-2 overall. There is a distinct pattern to their results as they are 1-7-1 this year when allowing 4+ goals but 7-1-1 when allowing three or less. Unfortunately for them tonight, they are facing a team that leads the league at 3.74 gpg. The likelihood of the Caps scoring 4+ goals here would seem to be strong as it's something they have done in over half their games this season. One such time was against these Rangers, a 5-2 win back on October 18th (in D.C.). 

Fortunately for the Rangers, they can score too. They've tallied at least three goals in six consecutive games. I had the Over when they met Florida on Saturday and that was a 4-3 game before the end of the second period. (Rangers lost w/ 4-3 being the final score). Unfortunately, the Blueshirts have given up 4+ goals in three of their last four contests and 6+ four times in the L10 games. They allowed NINE in a loss to Tampa Bay last week. This has all the makings of another high-scoring shootout. 10* Over Capitals/Rangers

10* Memphis (8:00 ET): I have to say, coming into the year, Memphis figured to be more of a fade for me than a take. But with a loss (to Oregon) already on their resume and this whole James Wiseman debacle playing out, might the Tigers actually now be (gasp) underrated? Penny Hardaway's team rebounded nicely from that loss to Oregon by blowing out SWAC member Alcorn State, 102-56. That was their first game w/o Wiseman, who has been ruled ineligible by the NCAA. As we saw against Alcorn State, this can be a good team even w/ Wiseman sidelined. Lay the points here. 

Now Arkansas Little-Rock is no Alcorn State. The Trojans can be a competitive team as they've shown Memphis in the past. Over the last six meetings, ALR is 5-1 ATS even though they've lost every game straight up. The last two years have seen them fall by 8 and 10 points. Both times they were getting 14 from the oddsmakers. Already this year, the Trojans have pulled one upset, winning 67-66 at Missouri State as a 12.5-point dog. They also covered at Illinois State, their only SU loss. But this game is obviously a big step up in class from previous opponents. 

It should be pointed out that Memphis' loss to Oregon was a de facto road game (played in Portland). So there was no shame in losing there. This is clearly a talented team w/o Wiseman and I expect that to show Wednesday night. Something that Little Rock does NOT do well is shoot the three. They are hitting just 26.9% from behind the arc, which simply won't cut it in a game like this. The only concern w/ Memphis is FT shooting, but they should have a big enough edge here that won't matter. 10* Memphis

10* Orlando (7:35 ET): Well, I tried fading Toronto on Monday and that went about as poorly as possible. What was a close game at halftime quickly turned into a 132-96 blowout of Charlotte. For Orlando, this will be their second try "North of the Border" this year as they lost here 104-95 as a 4.5-pt dog back on October 28th. I'll also go w/ a second try fading the Raptors as their two key injuries (Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka) are bound to catch up w/ them. Take the points. 

 After a slow start, the Magic have played much better of late. They come into this game on a three-game winning streak. All three victories have seen the team score at least 111 points as they've now hit triple digits in six straight. That's significant because they failed to score 100 in any of their first seven games this year (2-5 SU). Since then, they're 4-2 SU. Defense has not been an issue for Orlando as they lead the Eastern Conference in points allowed at 101.5 per game. 

The last time these teams met, the Magic's leading scorer Nikola Vucevic was held to just five points on 1 of 13 shooting. Vucevic has since been named Eastern Conference Player of the Week. He's delivered seven straight double doubles and posted season-highs in both points (30) and rebounds (17) on Sunday vs. Washington. Much will be made of the fact Orlando is 0-4 on the road while Toronto is 5-0 at home. But those injuries to Lowry and Ibaka will take their toll on the Raptors. Against Charlotte, they got career best point totals from two players, OG Anunoby and Terence Davis II. That isn't likely to repeat itself. The Magic have lost five straight to the Raptors going back to LY's 1st round playoff exit. They want revenge. 10* Orlando

analysis soon

10* Under Toledo/Buffalo (7:30 ET): This is a pretty fair O/U line, in my opinion. Both teams have each gone Over in three straight (Toledo four straight). A year ago at this time, Buffalo was prepping to play in the MAC Title Game and was on its way to the first 10-win season in program history. Regression was all but assured this year, but tip your cap to the job done by Lance Leipold as the Bulls should be back in a bowl (need to win just 1 of their final 2 games). Last week's 30-27 OT loss at Kent State was a step in the wrong direction, however. UB (-6.5) blew a 27-6 lead, giving up 24 pts in the final eight minutes. I'm proud to state we had the underdog in that one. But we were a little lucky. 

Toledo has been a disappointment this year. The preseason to win the MAC West, the Rockets are just 3-3 in conference play and have been outscored by 42 pts. They are already bowl eligible, however, that probably doesn't erase the sting of LW's 31-28 home loss to Northern Illinois. That game, which was the Rockets' home finale, saw them come back from a 21-point deficit in the 4Q to tie things up at 28-28. But it was not to be as they lost on a last second FG. Despite snow, the game featured over 900 yards of total offense. Don't think we'll be seeing that again here. 

Buffalo's loss LW dropped them to 7-4 SU in weekday games under Leipold. Technically, Toledo is still alive to win the MAC West while Buffalo can't win the East (Miami has clinched). A case can be made that both teams' games last week could easily have stayed Under. The Buffalo defense played very well through three quarters against Kent State and it wasn't really their fault they lost the game. Two of Buffalo's 4Q TD's came after an onside kick and a blocked punt. The Bulls defense allowed less than 300 total yds in the game, which is par for the course as they are allowing just 273.5 YPG in conference play. Toledo's offense had only 7 points entering the 4Q last week and they've scored just 21 pts total their L2 road games. 10* Under Toledo/Buffalo

10* Under Suns/Kings (10:05 ET): The Suns and Kings have been two of the best bets in the NBA this season. Given the respective struggles of the two franchises over the last decade, that's not something I anticipated writing. Phoenix enters at 9-3 vs. the number (best ATS record in the league) while Sacramento has covered every game in November (7-0 ATS) following an 0-5 ATS October. Something will have to give here. But it's the total I'm more interested in tonight. 

The fact that both teams have been playing short-handed makes their respective ATS success all the more surprising. The Suns are w/o last year's #1 overall DC DeAndre Ayton, who got hit w/ a 25-game suspension for failing a drug test. That suspension occurred pretty early in the season (Ayton played just ONE game), yet initially Phoenix showed no ill-effects. After seven games, the team was 5-2 SU and a perfect 7-0 ATS. They are now 7-5 SU/9-3 ATS. The one game Ayton played in was against these Kings and he scored 18 pts on 9 of 14 shooting. The team scored 124 points in a rout, but I don't suspect that will be happening again tonight. 

Also hurting the Suns here is the fact they played last night. They lost 99-85 at home to Boston in what was pretty easily their lowest scoring game of the year. That result snapped a 5-game Over streak as well. Now the Celtics are one of the league's top defensive teams. But surprisingly, Sacramento has kept its last three opponents all below 100 pts. All three games stayed Under. It must be mentioned that the Kings are playing w/o De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III, so it's going to be a struggle for them to score moving forward. Buddy Hield had a season-best 35 points w/ seven three-pointers made vs. Boston on Sunday, something I do not see him doing again here. 10* Under Suns/Kings

10* New Mexico (9:00 ET): This battle of unbeatens finds New Mexico departing campus for the first time, but it won't be a long trip for the Lobos as they head to El Paso to face annual rival UTEP. This will be the fourth season in a row these schools are playing and while the home team is 3-0 SU, it has been the Miners leaving w/ the cash on every occasion. But compared to last year, this number has changed dramatically as UTEP was a 16-pt dog when it covered LY in Albuquerque (lost 84-78). They are 8-1-1 ATS the L10 meetings w/ UNM, but this could be the first time since '99 that they go off as the favorite. 

New Mexico's four wins have not only all come at home, but they've all been by double digits. The most recent was a 90-80 triumph against McNeese State on Sunday in spite of allowing 50.9% shooting. In the first three games, the Lobos never allowed higher than 44.4% shooting. At the same time, they've scored at least 90 in every contest. In three of the four games, they've had five players finish in double figures. This is a good team. 

UTEP has held its first three overmatched opponents to an average of 59.0 PPG. They did defeat a New Mexico State team who is awaiting on deck for New Mexico. The Miners were 2.5-pt home underdogs in that game, which they won 65-50. Their other two wins came against non-DI opponents.  There has been one common opponent for these two teams, that being Eastern New Mexico, whom New Mexico defeated by 21 and UTEP beat by 14. I simply feel that the better team here is the one that opened as an underdog. Don't be surprised if this number "jumps the fence" prior to tipoff. 10* New Mexico

7* Nashville (8:05 ET): You can bet the Predators will be eager to take the ice Tuesday after they were embarrassed here at home their last time out. Friday's 7-2 loss to the Blackhawks was the Preds' fourth straight setback and sixth in the last seven games. Goaltending, once considered a major strength, has been real shaky of late w/ 22 goals allowed in the four games. Uncharacteristically, Pekka Rinne has been pulled in two different times in the past week. I expect a big bounce back from the Preds in this spot as the team has an 8-1 record the last nine times it has been off a home loss by 3+ goals. 

Winnipeg comes in off B2B road wins. They defeated Florida & Tampa Bay by identical 4-3 scores to start what will be a four-game trip (ends in Dallas Thursday). The Jets have won six of eight overall, but interestingly enough have lost both times they've been off B2B wins. They've won three in a row just one time all season. A four-game road winning streak has seen them prevail by a one-goal margin every time. In fact, the Jets are a very fortunate 9-1-1 SU in all one-goal games this season, a win percentage that cannot be maintained in that situation. 

On the year, the Jets are still giving up 3.5 goals per game away from home. Despite the recent results, Winnipeg has still been outscored on the season while Nashville has a positive goal differential. Should he be back in goal tonight, Rinne is too good to have these struggles continue. The most shocking thing of all about that 7-2 loss to Chicago is that Nashville finished w/ a substantial edge in shots on goal (41-24). The Jets tend to give up a far higher volume of shot attempts compared to the Predators. Nashville certainly remembers losing three of four to Winnipeg last season, which adds to their motivation here. 7* Nashville

10* Under Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois (7:30 ET): You know how this goes. Northern Illinois has gone Over in each of its last five games, so we're going to go the other way. After seeing totals mostly in the 40's, last Wednesday the Huskies did go Over 55.5 in a 31-28 win over Toledo. But, of note, is the fact they held the Rockets to just 7 points in the first three quarters. By winning that game, NIU kept alive its chances of becoming bowl eligible (currently 4-6 SU) and now they must win their final two games, both of which are at home where they are allowing just 12.3 PPG on the year.

This is the second straight Tuesday game for Eastern Michigan. One week ago, the Eagles scored a season-high 42 points in a victory, but that came at the expense of winless Akron. It'll be a much tougher defense that EMU is facing this week. The Eagles are on a 3-game Over streak of their own heading into this contest, but like Northern Illinois, the O/U lines have generally been lower. Tonight's visitors are 3-1-1 to the Under this season with a total of 54.5 pts or higher. Last week was just the third time all season that NIU has scored more than 24 points.

A lot has been written this year about this not being the same caliber of Northern Illinois football that we are used to seeing. That's true, but it's also fair to point out that Huskies have gotten to play only three games in DeKalb! Getting these last two at home is huge for their bowl prospects. I mentioned earlier that the Huskies are allowing only 12.3 PPG here and while a lot of that has to do w/ the fact two of the games were against Akron (shutout) and a FCS school (Illinois State), they did hold Ball State to just 269 total yards in a 27-20 loss back on Oct 5. Eastern Michigan also needs a win to become bowl eligible, so they won't be run over here. Incredibly, the last three head to head meetings have all gone to OT. Yet none of the three games have seen more than 57 total pts scored and last year's 26-23 NIU win went to THREE overtimes! 10* Under Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois

8* Utah State (9:00 ET): Utah State deserves to be ranked #17 in the country as they have dominated all four of their games so far. This was an NCAA Tournament team last year as they won 28 games and the Mountain West. Four of the five starters from that team are back for 2019-20. Keep in mind that sophomore center Neemias Queta has yet to suit up this season due to a knee injury. The Aggies have had a different leading scorer in every game thus far. 

UTSA's start to the year couldn't be more opposite of what we've seen from Utah State. The Roadrunners are 0-4 and have failed to cover every game. Every loss has been by double digits and what's really shocking is that they were favored to win three of the four games. They haven't played since last Sunday when they lost at home to Delaware, 91-79. So you know UTSA is going to be ready coming into this one. The problem is they simply aren't on Utah State's level. 

There is a chance Quete could play here (listed as questionable), but even if he doesn't, the Aggies have shown they can do just fine w/o him. They've scored at least 81 pts in every game, all of them having taken place here in Logan. Since only beating Montana State by eight in the season opener, they've won by 55, 41 and 27 points. Still I'm not sure if the oddsmakers have properly accounted for how good this team is just yet. UTSA's shooting has been exceptionally poor thus far and USU is allowing an overall FG% of just 35.0. On the flip side, UTSA has also really struggled to defend and USU has shot 55% of better twice in the L3 games. 8* Utah State

10* Over Chiefs/Chargers (8:15 ET): The Chiefs have owned the Chargers in recent seasons, winning 9 of the previous 10 head to head meetings. The one loss occurred the last time they met, Week 15 of last year when Los Angeles prevailed 29-28. But the Bolts were also a much better team last year. They wound up winning 12 games, the same number as KC. Like LA, the Chiefs come into this game somewhat desperate for a win as they have lost four of six, including Patrick Mahomes return from injury a week ago at Tennessee. The call is Over here as this should be a high-scoring game. 

While they aren't scoring as many points as last year (not surprising), there's nothing wrong w/ the Chiefs' offense. They've averaged 29.2 points in the games Mahomes has started. In his return last week, Mahomes threw for 433 yards in a losing effort. But the reason the team lost that game to the Titans is a defense that remains pretty awful. Last week marked the third time in five games that the Chiefs allowed 30+ points. They are also 31st in the league against the run, giving up 149 YPG. There's a reason the L3 Kansas City games have all gone Over.

With QB Philip Rivers leading the NFL in passing yardage (2,816) and RB Melvin Gordon off his 1st 100+ yard rushing game of the season, the Chargers have the horses necessary to take advantage of the Chiefs' poor defense. The two meetings LY saw 57 and 66 total pts scored. This game will be played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico. A questionable playing surface will make life hell for defenders in coverage. In addition to winning by fading KC last week, I also had the Over in the Chargers' 26-24 loss to the Raiders. 10* Over Chiefs/Chargers

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Generous number here for Hornets team that has won two in a row. Sure, both wins were razor-thin as they beat the Pistons by three and the Knicks by one. But that doesn't mean they can't stick w/ the defending NBA Champs, who are severely hampered by injuries right now, the most notable being the one to Kyle Lowry's thumb that has him out indefinitely. Serge Ibaka is also out w/ an ankle injury. Without those two key players, the Raptors should not be favored by this many points.

Not much was expected from Charlotte this season due to Kemba Walker leaving for Boston. So them being 6-7 SU is somewhat of a surprise. All six wins have come by 7 pts or less, four of those by 3 pts or less. So eventually they will regress. But with the exception of a few games, they've been competitive with everybody. The L3 games have all been decided in the closing seconds. They're a solid 7-4 ATS as underdogs and 5-1 ATS on the road. 

This play is probably more of a fade on Toronto than anything else. The Raptors, specifically Pascal Siakam, showed signs of wearing down in Saturday's 110-102 loss to the Mavericks. Siakam, who has had to carry the scoring burden w/ Lowry out, scored just 15 pts on 6 of 24 shooting in that last game. On average, Raptors' home games have been pretty high scoring so far. But they probably won't maintain the offensive efficiency due to the injuries. At the defensive end, giving up 112.5 PPG at home is concerning. 8* Charlotte

10* Atlanta (9:35 ET): This West Coast swing is not going well for the Hawks as they've lost three of the first four games. Things went from bad to worse last night as they gave up 150 points to the Clippers. The road trip ends tonight, but at least the Hawks don't have to go anywhere as they're back at Staples Center, this time to face the Lakers. Given how LeBron James and company have looked so far, this isn't exactly what I'd call a "great spot" for the visitors. But they are getting a lot of points against a team that doesn't have that many double digit wins this year. Take the points. 

For what it's worth, sharp money seemed like it was on the Hawks last night. The number was bet down considerably as they closed as nine-point dogs after opening +13. Obviously, that was a bad read (we didn't take them), but it does show that savvy bettors do seem to have more faith in this team than the oddsmakers. Chalk last night up to "one of those games" as the Hawks shot horrifically (37.8%) while allowing the Clippers to shoot 53.8% overall and 51.5% from three-point range. They probably won't have a worse loss all season. 

The Lakers come in red hot as they've gone 10-1 their L11 games. But they could only beat Sacramento by two on Friday, a game they were favored to win by 10.5 points. LA trailed by 10 after the first quarter and from there it was a scramble just to earn a SU win. The Kings went undermanned into that game, so there is hope for the Hawks here. Their stock could not possibly be lower coming off a loss like the one they suffered last night, so we will "buy low" and take the points. 10* Atlanta 

9* Chicago (7:05 ET): After a fast start to the season, Buffalo has cooled off considerably. If this narrative sounds familiar, well, they did the exact same thing last season. The Sabres came into Saturday as losers of six in a row, all but one of the losses coming in regulation. But they were fortunate to draw a terrible Ottawa team last night. The Sabres beat the Senators 4-2, snapping that ugly losing skid. But now they've got to hit the road and play a suddenly hot Chicago team.

The Blackhawks have won 5 of 7 and just scored 7 times in an impressive win at Nashville last night. The game before that, they went to Vegas and won as +220 ML underdogs! This is the first time all season that Chicago has been above .500 and they've tallied 5+ goals in 4 of their last 5 games. While they still have many of the core players that led them to three Stanley Cups, Chicago has "gone young" w/ the call-ups of 18-year old Kirby Dach and 19-year old Adam Boqvist. It has paid off so far. 

Both teams are playing the second night of a back to back, but that's about all they have in common coming into this one. Chicago is clearly the hotter team and playing at home. They just beat two of the West's best teams on the road and did so in impressive fashion. Buffalo's only win in its last seven games came against a team that is tied for the 2nd fewest points in the league. All four of the Sabres goals last night came from Jack Eichel (new career-high). He can't carry the team like that every night. 9* Chicago

8* Cincinnati (4:25 ET): Yes, I'm backing Cincinnati this week, the same team that just got beat 49-13 last week and is now 0-9 SU on the season. Going back to the end of last season, the Bengals have lost their last 11 regular season games. There is some merit in taking this team in this spot, but make no mistake about it - this play is more about fading the Raiders, who are laying double digits. Yes, the Raiders are laying double digits to an actual NFL team. That's happened just one time since Week 2 of the 2003 season! Obviously, you should take the points here. 

Things escalated quickly for the Bengals last week against Baltimore as they basically let Lamar Jackson run wild. However, there were some fluke things that happened along the way that contributed to the game getting so out of hand. QB Ryan Finley, making his first career NFL start, had two turnovers returned for touchdowns. Turnovers aside, I actually thought Finley didn't play all that poorly. The Bengals weren't outgained that severely and actually ended up w/ one more first down than the Ravens. All the big plays went Baltimore's way, but that's not who Cincy is facing this week. Instead, they are facing a team that has yet to win a game by more than eight points in 2019. 

Somehow, someway, Jon Gruden has constructed a playoff contender out in Oakland. What a way to go out as the franchise is set to move to Las Vegas next season. But even though they are playoff contenders, the Raiders have still been outscored by 32 points, a worse margin than the 3-6 Broncos. They've not only been outscored, but also outgained this year. Last Thursday vs. the Chargers, they won largely because of a +3 turnover margin, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD. They finished w/ eight fewer first downs than the Chargers. Over the L3 seasons, the Raiders are not only 0-3 ATS when coming off B2B SU wins, they are 0-3 SU as well. Add it up and this is one of the weakest DD favorites in recent memory. 8* Cincinnati

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): When I chose Atlanta as our top NFL side for last week, admittedly there wasn't much belief that the Falcons could win straight up. After all, they were two touchdown underdogs to a Saints team that hadn't lost since Week 2. But win straight up is precisely what the Dirty Birds did. The most shocking thing of all is just how dominant a SU victory it ended up being. A previously non-existent pass rush showed up in a major way for Atlanta w/ 6 sacks and 11 QB hits and they led pretty much from start to finish in what ended up being a 26-9 final. After taking a loss like that, the Saints will be expected to bounce back this week. I'm here to tell you "not so fast." In fact, you should once again take the points against them. 

There are some real issues w/ this Saints' offense right now. In nine games this season, they have scored a grand total of 25 first quarter points. Sunday marked the 4th game this season the offense failed to score a TD in the first three quarters. That's some pretty shocking stuff. Furthermore, despite having a 7-2 SU record, this has been far from a dominant team. Five of the Saints' seven victories this year have been by 7 pts or less. They only have a +22 YTD point differential and are only outscoring opponent by 2.5 PPG. This week will actually mark the 1st time all season that New Orleans has been a road favorite!

Conversely, Tampa Bay is a team that's played much better than its 3-6 SU record would seem to suggest. They have actually outgained their opponents over the course of the year. Looking at their six losses, four have been by 7 pts or less. One was in New Orleans, 31-24, back in Week 5. That was the second of B2B road games for the Bucs, who were coming off a shocking 55-40 drubbing of the Rams in LA. We know this team can score as LW's 30-27 win over Arizona marked the 5th time this season TB has scored 30+ pts. That's the same number as the Saints. The Bucs are only being outscored by 2.1 PPG this season. Being able to finally win a close game last week I think will give the Bucs some much needed confidence going into this game. Keep in mind that this game is outdoors where the Saints traditionally don't fare as well. After six straight ATS losses, it's time for the Bucs to finish "in the money" and I give them a great shot at the outright upset here. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Over Jets/Redskins (1:00 ET): The Jets finally woke up last week and scored a season-high 34 points in a rare win (just 2nd of the year), beating the Giants. Speaking of rare, the Redskins didn't lose last week. But that's only because they were on a bye. This is probably the league's ugliest game on paper since each team played Miami. Interestingly, Washington won their game in Miami (17-16) while the Jets lost theirs (26-18). But that doesn't mean as much when you consider the Skins suffered a 24-3 loss to the same Giants team that the Jets just beat. Bottom line is I'm expecting a higher scoring game than usual for these two teams. Take the Over.

Were the Jets to match last week's point total, then they'd be on the cusp of sending this one Over by themselves. Now expecting the Jets to score 34 points again seems a bit foolish. After all, last week was easily a season-high and just the second time they've topped 20 pts in a game all year! But this porous Redskins' defense may allow for something close to what we saw last week. While Washington's defensive numbers have gotten better as the season has worn on, they still allow a 72.5% completion percentage and 5.7 yards per play. They've gone against some weaker offenses recently and also played in a heavy downpour vs. San Francisco. I believe this will be one of the Jets' better offensive games of the year. They've scored 91 pts in the five games since Sam Darnold has been back, which may not sound like much, but it also includes getting shutout by New England.

The big news coming out of D.C. this week is that rookie QB Dwayne Haskins will be starting the rest of the way. Might as well as Washington's offense hasn't done much all year. The last six games have seen them score a total of 45 points, a stretch where the Under is 6-0. And remember they scored 17 of those 45 points in the win over Miami. But coming off a bye, Haskins should be the most prepared he's been all year. Similar to the Jets, I'm calling for one of the Redskins' better offensive efforts this week. It's not like the Jets' defense is all that great. They allow 29.0 PPG on the road and have given up at least 26 pts in six of their last seven games. 10* Over Jets/Redskins

10* UCLA (8:00 ET): Since suffering a Friday night loss at USC back in September, Utah has looked like one of the best teams in the entire country. They've gone 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 25.6 points per game. But I'll call for that streak to end this week (at least the ATS one) as they play host to a UCLA team that has clearly improved in Chip Kelly's second year at Westwood. If you remember, I was on the USC upset of Utah. While the Utes arguably outplayed the Trojans that night, it was still a loss. Here, it's a lot of points to lay in what could be a flat spot.

UCLA has won three straight, all by double digits, and could actually move into a 1st place tie w/ the Utes were they to pull the outright upset Saturday night. Like Utah, they are coming off a bye. I actually think that favors the dog in this situation. While an outright upset is admittedly unlikely here, the Bruins are definitely much better equipped to face the Utes than they've been in recent years. Their offense has run for 200+ yards in five straight games, so it will be interesting to see if Utah's top ranked run defense can slow that attack down. As dominant as Utah's winning streak looks, they actually trailed Washington by double digits two weeks ago and were still losing entering the 4th quarter.

UCLA has lost three in a row to Utah, the last two each coming by 31 points. I'm sure that will be on the minds of the coaching staff and players as they take the field at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Bowl eligibility is also hanging in the balance for the Bruins. To get there, they've still got to win two more games. They'll be favored to beat Cal in the regular season finale at home. But they'll still need to win either here or next week against rival USC. Bottom line is I expect a strong effort from the Bruins here. They have covered four of six games as an underdog this year, winning three of them outright. Three of the past five games, the Bruins' defense has allowed 20 points or less and the last game saw them hold Colorado to a season-low 14. Take the points. 10* UCLA

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): It appears as if the oddsmakers won't be letting off the Bucks "quite as easy" this year. Last season, the Bucks made the "quantum leap" into the NBA's elite by winning 60 regular season games and posting the best ATS record in the league. By any account, this season is off to a successful start as the team is 8-3 SU and won six of its last seven games while leading the league in scoring (120.3 PPG). But they're 0-4 ATS the L4 games. Look for that streak to end tonight as the Bucks catch Indiana playing in the second night of a back to back. Lay the points. 

Indiana lost to Houston last night, 111-102, despite limiting the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting, including 14 of 46 from three-point range. The Pacers' own shooting was their undoing as they made just 24.2% from behind the three-point line. It was only the second loss in nine games for Indiana, the other coming by two points (in OT) at Charlotte. But my guess is they won't do as good a job at defending the three-point line tonight as they did against the Rockets. That means trouble when facing a team as prolific as Milwaukee. 

The Bucks are 4th in the league in three-point makes (13.9 per game) and 2nd in attempts (41.2 per game). Overall, they are shooting 47.3% from the floor and rank 2nd in offensive efficiency. They're also a very respectable 7th in defensive efficiency after leading the league in that department last season. The Bucks are rested and seven of their eight wins have been by at least five points. 10* Milwaukee

10* Over Capitals/Bruins (7:05 ET): Boston snapped a four-game losing skid last night by beating Toronto 4-2. But they're not "out of the woods" yet as tonight they've got to host Washington, who has again been the best team in the league this season. Not only do the Capitals lead the NHL in points w/ 32, but they are the highest-scoring team as well with 81 goals (3.9 per game). This matchup should produce plenty of scoring as the Bruins happen to average 4.0 gpg themselves at home. Take the Over. 

The Caps actually lost last night, 5-2 at home to Montreal. It was their second loss in three games, but before that they'd won six in a row. Pretty shocking is that the Caps have been held to just two goals in B2B games. They'd previously scored at least three goals in 16 consecutive games. It was the defense that failed them last night, giving up five goals to the Habs, four of them coming in the second period. They also allowed 40 shots. Goalie Braden Holtby will be back between the pipes tonight, but keep in mind the Over is still 11-3 in his 14 starts this season. His goals against average is a subpar 3.06. 

Last February, Boston snapped a 14-game losing streak against Washington w/ a 1-0 win in D.C. Don't expect this game to be anything like that one. The Bruins are going w/ a backup netminder, Jaroslav Halak, who has surrendered 4+ goals in three of his last four starts. The Capitals have scored 10 more goals than every other team in the league and already have eight games w/ 5+ goals. But as last night proved, they'll give up their fair share as well. Boston is #4 in the league in goals per game, so expect this to be a wild one Saturday night in Beantown. 10* Over Capitals/Bruins 

10* Over Rangers/Panthers (7:05 ET): These teams have gone Over the L7 times they've met, including a 6-5 Panthers victory at MSG this past Sunday. That game was a wild one w/ both teams getting 34+ shots on net and there were a total of seven power play goals scored. Scoring hasn't really subsided for either team since that game as Florida has now gone Over in three straight following a 5-4 win at Boston and a 4-3 loss (here at home) to Winnipeg. The Rangers just gave up a frightening NINE goals to Tampa Bay in their last game. Definitely take the Over here. 

Despite losing here to Winnipeg on Thursday night, the Panthers have to like their chances coming into tonight. They have the league's 5th best power play (at 25%) and over the L8 games they are hitting at a league-best 33% w/ the man advantage. Going against a team that just allowed nine goals, including five on the power play, has to have Florida licking its proverbial chops here. Thursday's embarrassing loss to the Lightning may have been a "new low" for the Rangers, but it was also the 4th time in the L9 games they've allowed 6+ goals. 

Even at 5 vs 5, you should expect Florida to score plenty tonight. This team is averaging 3.53 goals per game (tied for 6th overall) while getting off the 2nd most shots (34.8) per game. Here on home ice, both of those numbers go up. The Rangers allow the 2nd most shots per game. But there's hope for the Rangers here as well w/ the Panthers giving up 3.58 goals per game, 4th most in the league. The Blueshirts have scored at least three times in each of the last five games, scoring a total of 20 goals. 10* Over Rangers/Panthers

10* Air Force (7:00 ET): Air Force got an unexpected bye last week due to the tragic death of a New Mexico player. Originally, this week was set to conclude a brutal stretch of 10 games in 10 weeks for the Flyboys and be their sixth road trip during that time. So the bye, while coming under the worst of circumstances, probably couldn't have come at a better time. Colorado State is also off a bye, their second in four weeks. The surprising Rams have won three in a row and covered five of their last six, but they are not a team I happen to believe in. I'm going to lay the points.

After four straight 7-6 seasons under Mike Bobo, Colorado State fell to 3-9 SU last year. They expected improvement in Fort Collins this year, but things did not look good early w/ a 1-5 SU start that included a 21-point loss to a Colorado team that Air Force beat on the road. Despite winning their last three games, let's not lose sight of the fact CSU has won only one game all year in which it was an underdog. That was an upset of Fresno State three weeks ago. The Rams have still been outscored on the year and a defense which has not been able to stop the AFA triple option in the past still remains a liability. 

After going 5-7 SU each of the last two years, Air Force has also improved in 2019. Only they've looked a lot more impressive in doing so. They've won four straight to get to 7-2 and have outscored opponents by 77 points during the win streak. I've had my finger on the pulse, taking them as a short favorite against Utah State (won 31-7) and then fading them as 16-pt chalk against Army (only won 17-13). Colorado State is clearly a much more favorable matchup than Army as the Falcons have beaten the Rams 12 of the last 15 tries, including each of the last three years where they've averaged 430.3 yards rushing per game! As alluded to above, CSU's run defense still isn't any good as they've still allowed 183.7 YPG over land during their 3-game win streak. On the other side of the ledger, the AFA defense ranks 9th nationally at stopping the run (97 YPG allowed) and Colorado State lost its leading rusher to a suspension. 10* Air Force

10* La Tech (6:00 ET): Off to a 2-0 start, Louisiana Tech is about to be tested for the 1st time as they pay a visit to Creighton. The Bulldogs have won both games by 33+ points and are averaging 90.0 PPG on better than 50% shooting. They held Texas A&M-CC and Wiley College to just 31% from the floor. While such wins really don't tell you a lot about a team, I feel that the contingent from Ruston makes for a LIVE underdog tonight. They are catching Creighton in a bad spot. Take the points. 

Creighton just lost to Michigan on Tuesday, 79-69 as 5.5-point dogs. They did lead at halftime, but couldn't slow down the Wolverines in the 2nd half. The Bluejays ended up allowing a 56.6 FG% for the game and that simply isn't going to cut it against a La Tech that's shot the lights out so far. Guarding the three-point line wasn't as easy against Michigan as it was vs. Kennesaw State (who went 3 for 20) and that could be a sign of things to come here. 

It's not easy winning here in Omaha where Creighton has gone 30-8 SU its L38 games. But the Bluejays are also 0-3 ATS the L3 times they've been asked to lay between 9.5 and 12 points on their own floor. Incredibly, they are also just 3 for 10 from FT line in two games! They don't have a single starter taller than 6'7". Despite grabbing 18 offensive rebounds against Michigan, they got only 13 pts off them, a shocking lack of efficiency. La Tech is an explosive offensive team that is great at forcing turnovers and this game will be a nice way to make it up to the fine folks in Ruston still angry about last night's loss on the football field. 10* La Tech

8* Under Memphis/Houston (3:30 ET): If Memphis wins out, then they are going to be the Group of Five team that goes to the Cotton Bowl. I talked about that possibility when I took them all the way back in Week 1 vs. Ole Miss. The Tigers won that game against Rebels 15-10. But since then, they've scored 35 or more in every win (held to 28 in loss to Temple) w/ the last six games all going Over. We havent seen the Tigers since that epic 54-48 win over SMU two weeks ago. Off a bye, I'm looking for a little less scoring. Take the Under.

Houston's last two games have both gone Under by the tightest of margins. It was a 34-31 loss to SMU w/ a total of 66. Then it was a 44-29 loss at UCF where the total was 73.5. Still that proves they can go Under a high total when matched up against one of these elite AAC offenses. Remember that it's been a tumultuous 1st year for HC Dana Holgorsen. His star QB and WR both decided to redshirt midseason. It's a testament to his system that the offense has been able to score as much as they have. But, for the record, the Cougars have averaged just under 27 PPG the L4 weeks. 

Both teams are off a bye, so the offenses could come out a little rusty. Memphis will obviously find a way to score its fair share of points, but I'm also looking for them to play better defensively than they have in the last two games. In five of their first seven games, the Tigers allowed 24 points or less. My sense is they'll get back closer to that number here. Under Mike Norvell, the Memphis' offense has had its way with the Houston defense. But in their last home game, the Cougars did slow down an SMU offense that was averaging over 45 PPG. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times these teams have played in Houston. 8* Under Memphis/Houston

8* Over Kentucky/Vanderbilt (3:30 ET): While - on paper - this looks like a REAL ugly matchup out of the SEC, remember games are not played on paper. I anticipate it being a higher scoring game than anticipated. Last week, I took the Over w/ Vanderbilt. Even though they didn't score a single point, I still cashed a winning ticket! They gave up 56 points to Florida in a loss that guaranteed the Commodores won't be going bowling in Derrick Mason's 6th year here in Nashville. I have to wonder about the psyche of a defense following a loss like that. Take the Over again. 

Kentucky's offense has hardly been pretty this year. The Wildcats managed just 13 points last week as they lost outright as 3-pt home favorites to Tennessee (17-13). It was the sixth straight UK game to go Under the total. When they're on the road, the offensive numbers get quite dreadful as the Wildcats have put up 0, 13 and 7 points in their three games outside of Lexington this year. Ouch! But before losing to Tennessee, the Wildcats had put up 29 points (in an upset of Missouri) and I believe this offense is capable of much more w/ Lynn Bowden at the helm. They've run for 600 yards the L2 games despite a non-existent passing attack. UK will move the ball effectively this week. 

This game reminds me a lot of the Over play I had on South Alabama-Texas State last week. That too was a matchup of two putrid offensive teams (even worse than these two) that had nothing to play for. The game ended up being a 30-28 final and went Over midway in the third quarter. Kentucky did score 13 points in the 1st quarter last week before being shutout the rest of the way. But despite getting shutout in those final three quarters, the Wildcats had FIVE drives of at least 35 yds. Zero points on drives totaling 175+ yards is almost unheard-of inefficiency This Vandy offense did score 38 earlier this season on LSU, so there's hope for them too. We don't need many points here in what will be the lowest O/U line for either team this season . 8* Over Kentucky/Vanderbilt

8* Under Central Michigan/Ball State (3:30 ET): Central Michigan is not only coming off a bye week, but also five straight Overs. Key to that run though is that three of the five games took place in Mt. Pleasant where they average an impressive 43.0 PPG. In those three recent home games, the Chippewas scored 42 or more points. But this week will be a road game (in Muncie, IN) and on the road the Chips are averaging just 17.0 PPG, a massive decline. I like this game to go Under. 

Ball State was looking like it was having a breakthough season. Going into the final weekend of October, they were the only team MAC team w/o a conference loss. But now they've lost two in a row, 34-21 at home to Ohio and 35-31 at Western Michigan. That last game was played on a Tuesday and I cashed the Over. Interesting that they were facing a team that had gone Under in five straight. Now it's a team that's gone Over in five straight games. The Cardinals do average plenty of points here in Muncie, but I'm looking for some defensive improvement from them this week as well. 

This is the highest O/U line for any Central Michigan game since the last one that went Under (9.28 vs. Western Michigan). Something I'd like to point out w/ the Chippewas is that their defense has actually performed better than you think the L3 weeks. They've allowed just 323.7 YPG. These teams play every year and Ball State hasn't scored more than 24 points in any of the L4 meetings. The score was only 21-17 going into the 4Q last Tuesday vs. Western Michigan and only 28-24 w/ just over five minutes remaining. With the massive offensive decline CMU experiences on the road, Under is the right call here. 8* Under Central Michigan/Ball State

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): QB Kelly Bryant is set to return this week and that changes the whole dynamic for a Tigers team that has lost three in a row. All three of those losses, including 27-0 to Georgia last week, have been on the road. Clearly, without Bryant last week, they could get nothing going against one of the nation's top defenses. But now they are back in Columbia where they are a perfect 5-0 SU this season and have won every game by double digits! I'm not ready to give up on this team as last week was actually the 1st time all year that they were getting points! 

Florida has admittedly looked impressive this year as they are 8-2 SU (only losses are to LSU & Georgia). Coming off their own loss to Georgia (24-17), the Gators bounced back in a major way last week by shutting out Vandy 56-0. That was a game where I had the Over and the Gators did all the work themselves in punching me a winning ticket. But they were only up 14-0 at halftime before exploding for 28-point 3Q that included a defensive TD. Coming into the year, I did NOT expect this Gators team to match LY's 10-win total. I think the final two regular season games are going to be tricky. Unless UGA loses its next two (unlikely), then the Gators have nothing to play for (can't win division). That makes them prime fade material in my opinion.

Bryant and the home field edge are both huge factors in handicapping this game, but there is even more evidence to support a play on the underdog this week. Missouri has beaten Florida the L2 years by a combined 50 points and has won four of the six games as SEC rivals. Also, the Tigers have the SEC's #1 pass defense (147.7 YPG allowed) and that's key going against one-dimensional Florida offense that can't really run the ball. With Bryant in at QB, this team was once 5-1 and ranked in the Top 25. Really, every Tigers loss this year (besides last week) is pretty head-scratching. Take the points. 8* Missouri

10* Under Fresno State/San Diego State (9:30 ET): This would certainly seem to be an exceedingly low total for a Fresno State team that has gone Over in five straight. Enter San Diego State, a team who is not only 8-1 Under on the year, but also allows just 14.4 PPG. At the same time, a Fresno State defense that has struggled mightily of late looks to be getting a respite by facing an opponent that doesn't score much either. My recent success betting CFB totals has a lot to do w/ bucking these streaks like the one FSU is currently on. So I say Under Friday night!

This year's Fresno State team simply isn't as good as the past two editions. Of course, in 2017, HC Jeff Tedford engineered the greatest single-season turnaround in CFB history. The Bulldogs went from 1-11 SU to 10-4. Shockingly, there was no regression in 2018 as they jumped to 12-2. But this year, the Bulldogs may not even make a bowl game. They are 4-5 after losing outright last week to Utah State, 37-35 as five-point home favorites. Some of that regression can be tied to a struggling defense. But SDSU is 11th in Mt West in scoring as well as last in YPG (326.6). This will be the weakest offense FSU has seen maybe all season. 

San Diego State also happens to be off an outright loss last Saturday, theirs an even larger embarrassment as they were 17-point favorites against Nevada, yet fell 17-13. The loss dropped them out of the Top 25, a place they didn't belong anyways. Defense was not an issue vs. Nevada as the Aztecs allowed just 226 total yards.  While the number of yards allowed ranked among the season's best performances, it was also pretty par for the course as the Aztecs are allowing just 277.1 YPG, which is top eight in the entire country! Six straight meetings between these teams have stayed Under, the last five all seeing no more than 37 total pts scored.  10* Under Fresno State/San Diego State

10* Under T'Woves/Wizards (8:05 ET): This is one of the highest totals we've seen so far this NBA season and it's not without merit. Washington is coming off a game in which it lost 140-133 (but still covered - I had them). Minnesota, who has gone Over in six of its last seven games, just hung 129 points on San Antonio in a win Wednesday night. This is definitely the highest O/U line either team has seen so far and it could end up challenging for the highest O/U line for any NBA game this season. Take the Under. 

This is already the second meeting of the year between these teams. Back on November 2nd, the T'wolves went to the Nation's capital and prevailed 131-109. That score is yet another reason this total is so high. Minnesota had 70 points at halftime and coasted to their largest margin of victory and highest scoring game all season. Washington didn't even shoot that well as they finished the game at 38.9% from the field. But my guess is the T'wolves are not going to be as deadly on the offensive end here compared to that first meeting. 

Note Washington had actually gone Under in three straight before the wild game in Boston Wednesday night. Coming in off four days rest, they shot 52.6% against the Celtics, which is pretty remarkable given the kind of defense Boston has played this year. The Wiz don't have the luxury of having that much rest coming into tonight. They've shot better than 50% in only two games all season. The remarkable thing about Minnesota's stretch of scoring is they aren't shooting the ball well at all this year! Especially at home where they are at 41.1% including an unsightly 25.6% from three-point range. 10* Under T'wolves/Wizards

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): These teams seem to be going in different directions of late. The Spurs actually opened 3-0, but failed to cover the spread in all three games. That was a pretty clear signal that they might be overrated and sure enough, they have since lost six of eight. Three straight losses where they failed to cover the spread every time now have them at 2-9 ATS on the year, which is the league's worst record at the betting window. Unlike previous editions under HC Greg Popovich, this Spurs team is terrible defensively as it ranks 24th in efficiency. Lay the points w/ Orlando here. 

The Magic's season started out poorly as they lost six of their first eight games and failed to break 100 points in any of the first seven. But they've since collected a couple wins, including an impressive 112-97 victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday. That was their second highest scoring game of the year as seven players finished in double figures. Meanwhile, defense has not been an issue. They are 1st in the NBA in points allowed, giving up just 99.1 PPG. They are even stingier here at home where the average drops to 96.3 PPG allowed. 

I look for Orlando to take advantage of San Antonio's recent defensive decline tonight. The Spurs' most recent loss, which was at Minnesota Wednesday night, marked the third time this season they've allowed 120+ points. It was also the second time they've allowed that many in the last three games. The last five San Antonio opponents have combined to shoot 50.2% from the field. So, if the Magic can take advantage of that and play their trademark defense, this should be a pretty easy victory. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS against the Eastern Conference. 10* Orlando 

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Penguins aren't just off a loss here, they're also w/o superstar Sidney Crosby for the next six weeks. This is a banged up team right now w/ not only Crosby out, but some other key players as well. But through it all, they've managed to outscore opponents by 13 goals this season. That's a top four margin in the Eastern Conference. It's not like playing w/o Crosby is anything new. He's missed substantial time before and yet the Pens have always seemed to be successful. Perception of this team will now change, but I think they're a great value tonight in New Jersey.  

The Devils have the fewest points in the league (14) as well as the worst goal differential (-21). So objectively speaking, it is fair to call them the worst team in the league. I know that this club has generally been competitive despite losing most of its games. But they've still lost six of nine. They just lost to lowly Ottawa (here at home) on Wednesday after allowing three goals in a 6 1/2 minute span in the third period. The Devils are 2nd to last in the league in goals scored and have found the back of the net only eight times in the last five games. 

The Penguins were able to battle back from a 2-0 deficit to earn a point against the Rangers on Tuesday. That was their first game w/o Crosby. Though Crosby is the team leader in points, Pittsburgh can still lean on its goaltending as they are 5th in the league in goals allowed per game. That's significantly better than New Jersey, who is 30th in that department. It's pretty shocking to see NJ is 6-1-1 the past eight head to head meetings w/ the Pens. With people doubting them, I look for Pittsburgh to go out and pick up two points tonight. 10* Pittsburgh 

8* Denver (10:35 ET): With Kyrie Irving's status in limbo (questionable w/ shoulder injury), this is a good time to play against the already struggling Nets. They'll definitely be w/o Caris LeVert, who has a right thumb sprain. Tonight's game in Denver comes on the heels of Brooklyn blowing a double digit lead in Utah two nights ago, a game they ended up losing 119-114. This has simply not been a good team thus far and they're playing their 4th consecutive game out West in a seven-day span. Lay the points. 

Denver is also in off a loss, although theirs was less concerning to me. Now the numbers do indicate a poor defensive effort took place against Atlanta on Tuesday. The Hawks scored 125 points w/ 42 of them coming from Trae Young (his season-high) and shot 53% overall, including 15 of 34 (44.1%) from 3-pt range. It was the most points allowed by the Nuggets this season and it came in a game they initially led 12-0. With one of the stronger home court advantages in the league, I expect nothing short of a full bounce back effort by Michael Malone's club. 

Brooklyn has just one road win all year and it came at the start of this trip, in Portland. Since then, they've been blitzed by Phoenix (allowed 138 pts) and blew the DD lead in Utah. The Nets have been just terrible defensively as they allow 121.4 PPG, second most in the league. This does not seem like the spot where they will fix that issue. Then to make matters worse, the offense is set to suffer w/o LeVert and possibly Irving. Prior to the Atlanta game, the Nuggets had held four straight opponents under 100 points. They are 6th in the league in defensive efficiency while Brooklyn is 26th. 8* Denver 

8* Vancouver (10:05 ET): Dallas comes in on an 8-1-1 hot streak, but is also playing the second night of a back to back. They won 3-1 last night in Calgary, a game in which they never trailed and only allowed 25 shots on goal. But the task is tougher tonight in British Columbia and not just because of the schedule. The Canucks are off to a solid start this year and despite losing four of their last five games, they still own the West's 2nd best goal differential. I'm backing the home team in this one. 

After scoring just five goals total in four straight defeats, Vancouver busted loose for five goals in a win over Nashville Tuesday. That was a nice rebound following a loss to the lowly Devils on Sunday. The Canucks have played quite well at home this year, losing just one time in regulation and outscoring their visitors by an impressive 1.9 goals per game. No team in the league can match the Canucks' scoring average here at home, which is 4.25 goals per game. 

Before this 8-1-1 hot streak, Dallas had started the year 1-7-1. So it's been a total reversal of fortune for them. A true representation of where the team is at probably is somewhere "in the middle" of those two disparate streaks. They've got a goal differential of 0 on the year. This is already the 4th B2B for the Stars this year and it's also the third road game in five nights. The schedule should finally start catching up w/ them tonight as Vancouver looks to flash the form that had them off to a 9-3-2 start to the season. 8* Vancouver

10* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): The Browns' 19-16 win over the Bills last week, ugly as it was, has some convinced that this team has a viable path to the playoffs. Such a line of thinking goes back to just how overrated this team was at the start of the season. Take it from someone who cashed a winning ticket on the Browns (-2.5) last week. This team is NOT going to the playoffs. Not unless something serious changes as this team makes far too many mistakes, bogs down in the red zone at an incredible rate and is just plain poorly coached. I'm taking the points in the Thursday night AFC North matchup.

Now Pittsburgh is a team that I believe has a viable track to getting a Wild Card in the depth-shy AFC. Left for dead because of the Ben Roethlisberger injury, the Steelers have all of a sudden won four straight. Before the season, this was my pick to win the division. That's likely out the window now, but at 5-4, making the playoffs is not. Other than New England, no team has been able to beat the Steelers by more than four points this year. Their four losses are to the Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers and Ravens. Those teams are a combined 31-6 SU right now! With Big Ben out, the "Steel Curtain" is back as the defense has given up just 67 pts during the 4-game win streak. 

The Browns have topped 23 points in just two games all year. Baker Mayfield has regressed badly and actually sports a negative TD-INT ratio. Let's not forget how Pittsburgh has dominated this AFC North rivalry like maybe no other division rivalry in the sport. Since Cleveland returned to the league in 1999, they have gone just 6-34-1 SU against the Black & Gold. During that time, the Browns have been favored only THREE times and lost two of them outright. I'm not going to say Steelers QB Mason Rudolph has been great, but the defense certainly has been. Last week against the Rams, they didn't allow an offensive TD. The better team is getting points here and has a sizable coaching edge here to boot. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have excelled as underdogs, including a 9-2 ATS record the L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh

9* Under Coyotes/Wild (8:05 ET): Arizona will look to make it a clean sweep on this three-game road trip w/ the final stop taking place tonight in Minnesota. Considering they've already won in Washington (league's best team?) and St. Louis (defending Stanley Cup Champs), beating a Wild club that is dead last in the Central seems like an easy task for the Coyotes. But I expect the 'Yotes to struggle to score a little bit this evening. That doesn't mean they won't win, but it does mean you should look for this game to stay Under. 

Minnesota is not having a good year as their 13 points are tied with Los Angeles for fewest in the Western Conference. They just lost to the Kings Tuesday night, 3-1, making it five losses in the past seven games. Perhaps the Wild can blame a lack of home games on this slow start to the season. Of their 18 games played so far, only five have been here at the XCel Center. That's a little odd. This 2-4-1 slide that they're currently on saw them play just once here on home ice. They lost 4-3 in overtime to the Blues. While you may notice the Wild are averaging 3.8 gpg here at home, keep in mind that's a small sample size. 

These teams just met on Saturday and it was a 4-3 win for Minnesota out in the desert. The game went to OT after the Wild battled back from an early 3-1 deficit. Shocking is that they were the team to snap Coyotes' goalie Darcy Kuemper's streak of 23 straight games w/o allowing more than three goals and they did so w/ only 24 shots. The last time Kuemper allowed 4 goals in a game was March 11th. Kuemper has since bounced back w/ a 33-save effort against the Blues Tuesday night, which gave the Coyotes the first ever B2B road sweep of the previous year's Stanley Cup Finalists in league history. Keumper has a .931 save percentage and the Under is 9-3 in his 12 starts. He'll be much better tonight than he was on Saturday. 9* Under Coyotes/Wild

9* Carolina (7:05 ET): Buffalo started the season like a house of fire, but has cooled off considerably, which was to be expected. After all, this is a franchise that hasn't finished a season w/ more than 89 points since 2010-11, which (not coincidentally) was also the last time they made the playoffs. They've lost five in a row entering tonight's home date w/ Carolina, a team that the Sabres are 0-6 against the previous two seasons. The losing streak continues in upstate NY. 

Carolina was dealing w/ its own four-game slide entering play on Monday. But they got to face a sorry Ottawa team for a second straight time and won 8-2, thereby avenging a loss to the Senators that took place just two days prior. Now it's back on the road. As they usually do, the Hurricanes are getting the puck on net. They average 34.1 shots per game, which is top five in the league. For awhile, they couldn't find the back of the net, but that all changed on Monday w/ their highest scoring game of the season. There was also a game earlier in the year where they finished w/ 7 goals. So this team definitely can score. 

Buffalo has not been able to score much recently. They've been outscored 18-8 during the five-game losing streak and the last four losses have all come in regulation. The last two took place over in Stockholm, Sweden against Tampa Bay. We've seen teams struggle after returning from Europe this year, even though they get ample time off. The Sabres last played Saturday when they lost a wild 5-3 game that saw 83 total shots on goal. So far this year, the team is 0-2 when taking the ice w/ three or more days rest. 9* Carolina 

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): Kent State has only been bowling twice in program history w/ the last time being 2012 (other was 1972!). In order to snap that drought, this year's Golden Flashes (3-6 SU) are going to need to win out. That may seem like a tall mountain to climb, but looking at the schedule, it's actually doable. Up first is this Thursday night home game w/ Buffalo. At 5-4, the Bulls need just one more win to gain bowl eligibility and they've got the home finale vs. lowly Bowling Green in their back pocket. I'm not entirely sure why the line has shot up so much for this matchup and will take the points! 

You'll probably hear that Buffalo has "momentum" coming into this game, but regular readers know my feeling that "momentum" is a dirty word. The Bulls have won three straight and are off B2B 43-point efforts, but they benefited from five Central Michigan turnovers in one of them and had a gigantic quarter against Eastern Michigan in their last game. The other win came again 0-10 Akron. This will somewhat shockingly be the 4th time in MAC play that the Bulls are road favorites. But the Akron game was the only time laying more than 1.5. While they were able to get the job vs. Eastern Michigan 12 days ago, Buffalo lost outright at Miami. 

Kent State has only played three of its nine games here at home. They are averaging 34.7 PPG at Dix Stadium, which is well above their season average on the road (just 20.0 PPG!) The offense is led by dual threat QB Dustin Crum. Not only does Crum's 67.9 completion percentage rank among the top 15 in the country, he also leads the team in rushing. Leading receiver Isaiah McKoy missed the Toledo game, but is expected back here. While the Golden Flashes have lost three in a row, every loss was by 7 pts or less and those were to three of the top teams in the conference. With their bowl eligibility hanging in the balance, the Flashes won't go down quietly. 10* Kent State

6* Vegas (10:05 ET): Even though it's the Golden Knights that are having the better start to the season, they are the ones off a loss here while the Blackhawks are off a rare win. I think this situation creates an excellent 'play-on' opportunity, even at this high price. By this point, everybody knows what a strong home-ice advantage Vegas has here at the T-Mobile Arena. They have gone 57-25-9 SU all-time in regular season home games (this is their third year of existence). It's something not to be underestimated. Nor is the Golden Knights 7-0 all-time record vs. Chicago. 

While history is on the side of the Golden Knights coming into tonight, I have to admit that their recent play leaves a lot to be desired. They didn't just lose their last game. They've dropped three in a row and five of six. Three of those losses were in OT however and the last three were all on the road. Two of the three road losses came against Toronto and Washington, which is excusable. But losing to Detroit is not. Though that loss on Sunday to the Red Wings did come at the end of the trip and it was the second night of a back to back. Some positive news is that the Golden Knights are 9-4 SU all-time when on a 3-game losing skid.

Chicago has won just once on the road this year, so they seem like an unlikely team to crack the code that is the "Vegas flu." The Blackhawks have alternated wins and losses over their last five games and have won B2B games only one time this season. That one time saw them cash in on a pair of home games that were played four days apart. They are averaging just 1.9 goals per game on the road so far, which is second fewest in the league. Also, they are off a 5-4 win (against Toronto). This season Chicago is 0-3 SU after scoring 4+ goals in its last game. All signs point to the home team bouncing back here. 6* Vegas

10* BYU (9:00 ET): BYU lost as a four-point favorite in its last game, falling to San Diego State 76-71 on Saturday. That same day, Southern Utah pulled off what will likely end up being the highlight of their season, a 79-78 upset of Nebraska where they rallied back from a double digit deficit in the second half. Those results set us up very nicely for a play on BYU here. Yes, the Cougars are a little short-handed right now (Yoeli Childs suspended). But they still led SDSU for much of the second half. It was a game they still should have won. Look for them to take out their frustrations tonight. Lay the points. 

Southern Utah trailed Nebraska by 11 at halftime and was down by as many as 14 early in the second half. The Thunderbirds made their shocking comeback thanks to some terrible Nebraska shooting down the stretch. The Cornhuskers finished the game at 37.0% overall and 19.2% from three-point range. Surprisingly, SUU was even worse from behind the arc. But they still earned their 1st win over a power conference program since 2003. They needed double overtime to do so as Cameron Oluyitan sank a 10-ft jumper w/ just two seconds left to give his team the upset win (were 7-pt underdogs). 

Though the schools have not met since 2007, BYU has dominated this in-state rivalry, winning 9 straight times from 99-07. Eight of the nine wins have been by double digits. As mentioned above, while Southern Utah had to come from behind to earn its latest victory, BYU "came from ahead" in its latest loss. Despite trailing at halftime, the Cougars were up eight w/ just under 13 minutes remaining. They were up seven w/ just over six minutes left. Playing at home, it's a game they should have won. Though part of the Maui Invitational, this game is being played in Provo and I don't see BYU suffering B2B home defeats. 10* BYU

8* Washington (7:35 ET): Despite being 8-1 SU and 1st in the Eastern Conference, Boston appears quite vulnerable going into tonight's home game vs. Washington. Winners of eight in a row, the Celtics have been "bit" by the injury bug. Gordon Hayward is out indefinitely after breaking his hand against the Spurs over the weekend. Big man Daniel Theis will join him on the bench w/ a sprained finger. Kemba Walker, who is the team's leading scorer, had to leave the last game w/ a case of whiplash. While Walker has been cleared to play tonight, I'm still taking the points in this matchup. 

If Washington can't compete here, then it's going to be a very LONG season. Honestly, it'll probably be a long season in the Nation's capital regardless, but this is a spot where the team should be ready to go. Coming off B2B losses, the Wizards have had the last four days off. That's a lot of time in between games, even with the "new" NBA schedule. The only other time this season that the Wiz took the floor w/ three or more days was the insane game vs. Houston (159-158 loss) where they did cover. They are 7-4 SU/ATS the L3 season w/ 3+ days rest. 

Though Walker seems like he's going to play, the Celtics are still short-handed and eventually that's going to catch up to them. The team shot 42.9% from three-point range against Dallas Monday, a percentage I don't believe is sustainable for them. Then again, Jayson Tatum shot 1 for 18 from the field in that game! But it was Walker bailing them out by scoring 24 of his team-high 29 pts in the 2nd half. They can't succeed like that every game though. Washington's leading scorer Bradley Beal had an off-night vs. Cleveland on Friday, missing 13 of 21 shots. He'll shoot better here. Despite being 2-6 SU, the Wizards are only being outscored by 4.1 PPG. 8* Washington

8* New Mexico State (8:00 ET): This "border war" rounds out today's deep dive. Las Cruces and El Paso aren't too far away on the map, but I feel the schools hailing from those corresponding cities are a lot further apart than what the oddsmakers seem to think. New Mexico State has beaten UTEP nine straight times, including a four-point win here in El Paso last season. The number is lower for this year's visit and I'm not sure why as the teams are about the same. Lay the points. 

New Mexico State could not have had an easier opening game. Faced w/ an opponent that had zero chance, they quickly put Western New Mexico out of its misery. Now I realize that is a "nothing team" the Aggies beat, but the numbers were pretty staggering. The game started w/ 16-0 run. NMSU led 52-16 at the half and was up by as many as 52 in an eventual 92-46 victory. All 10 players that took the court scored. They allowed 28.6% shooting. 

Let's not forget that this New Mexico State team won 30 games last season and took Auburn to the wire (lost by 1) in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Five of its five losses were by six points or less! They have four starters back and figure to run through the WAC yet again. As for UTEP, it's 93-70 win over NM Highlands was not nearly as impressive as what NMSU did in its opener. The Miners actually turned the ball over 20 times and led by only nine w/ just over eight minutes remaining in the 2H. I think it's shocking this number is so low as the favorite is a really good team. 8* New Mexico State

8* Chicago State (8:00 ET): I'm digging deep on the board tonight. Chicago State is a team that has averaged 94 points in its first two games, albeit not against the stiffest of competition. The Cougars opened with a 103-60 rout of Judson College, a NAIA school, a game in which they shot the lights out (56.3%!) and led by 20 at halftime. They then lost to Loyola (MD), 98-85 in the home opener. This time, it was the Cougars on the wrong end of some sharpshooting as Loyola made 60% of its field goal attempts in the 1st half. Expect better defense from them tonight as I'll take the points.

This is obviously a big number for Eastern Illinois to lay in the wake of an 0-2 start. Now it was expected the Panthers would start 0-2 as they opened w/ road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin. They did not do well at Texas Tech, losing 85-60, but were surprisingly competitive in Madison, losing by only 13 as 19-point underdogs. EIU was actually within three w/ just nine minutes to play and what makes that even more impressive is they were -17 in points at the free throw line for the game. That discrepancy basically determined the outcome of the game. 

While Eastern Illinois won't be facing that kind of free throw discrepancy tonight at home, I don't see a clear path to winning by what the oddsmakers are calling for here. I know they faced two tough defensive teams, but a 56.0 PPG scoring average isn't exactly what you want to see from this large of a favorite. Especially when matched up w/ an underdog that you know can put the ball in the basket. Something to keep in mind is that Chicago State beat Eastern Illinois last year for their ONLY win over a D-I opponent the entire year (team finished 3-29). They are MUCH better this year. 8* Chicago State

8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): Let's continue the "deep dive" into tonight's College Hoops card w/ a play on UL Lafayette. The Ragin Cajuns are hoping for the same kind of success that the school's football team is having at the betting window this year (football team is 8-1 ATS, tied for best ATS record in the country w/ Ohio St). So far the basketball team is 2-0 SU, but neither game was lined. They defeated Loyola (NO) and McNeese State at home, by 28 and 5 points respectively. Take the points here as this number is way too high. 

TCU has played just one game and it was against Southwestern (TX), also a non-board opponent. The Horned Frogs won by 21 (83-62), but don't expect many more wins like that this season out of Ft. Worth. This team was picked to finish last in the Big 12. While leading scorer Desmond Bane is back, the next top four scorers from LY's team all departed. Bane did go for 26 against Southwestern, a D-III opponent, but it was shockingly just a three-point game shortly after halftime. So the final score there was a little misleading. Again, I won't be betting on TCU to win many games by large margins this year. 

UL Lafayette is picked to finish 5th in the Sun Belt. They too lost a lot of talent from LY's squad, but did bring in a key transfer (Jalen Johnson) from St. Louis. Also, the team's leading returning scorer, Cedric Russell, went for 22 pts against McNeese State. Giving the Ragin Cajuns hope here is the fact TCU was actually outrebounded in the opening game and allowed nearly 40% three-point shooting.  8* UL Lafayette 

7* Montreal (7:05 ET): The Canadiens are playing well right now. They've gone 5-1-1 their last seven games. The lone regulation loss came in Dallas at the end of a three-game trip out West. Saturday saw the club pick up two points here at home as they held on for a 3-2 win over the Kings (led 3-0 in the 1st period). Tonight is another home game against a bad team, that being Columbus, who has lost six of their last seven games. Look for the Habs to win again. 

The Blue Jackets have been outscored 26-14 in a 1-5-1 slide that has them near the bottom of the Metropolitan Division. This slide has resulted in C-bus having one of the YTD goal differentials in the league. Only three teams - the Red Wings, Devils and Kings - have been outscored more this season. Making matters worse, the team is going to be w/o forward Nick Foligno tonight as he has been suspended for three games due to elbowing Colorado's Pierre-Edouard Bellemare.

Columbus is also turning to a backup goalie in this spot, Elvis Merzlikins, who was just recalled from the AHL affiliate in Cleveland. Merzlikins has started three games so far this season and has a poor .882 save percentage. It just so happens the Blue Jackets have lost all three of those games as well. The backup goalie situation, the fact this is the finale of a three-game road trip for C-bus and the respective play of the two teams recently have me "all in" on the Canadiens here. Montreal is capable of scoring plenty and often does here on home ice. 7* Montreal 

10* Over Thunder/Pacers (7:05 ET): Personally, I feel that Oklahoma City has performed quite admirably in their first 10 games of the season. With both Russell Westbrook and Paul George departing via free agency, the Thunder were expected to take a massive hit in the standings this year. But so far they've gone 4-6 straight up, showing that they're going to be competitive. They only lost by two to Milwaukee on Sunday in a high-scoring game (121-119 final).

As per usual, Indiana was pegged to finish in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff mix. The season did not start well as they opened w/ three consecutive losses. But since that time, the Pacers are 6-1 with the only loss coming by just two points. Similar to Oklahoma City, there have been plenty of high-scoring games involving Indiana recently. Their last game was a 109-102 win at Orlando, which isn't all that high-scoring, but it was a second straight Over and third in four games.

Oklahoma City has gone Over in three straight as their games are now averaging 212.8 PPG. Against Milwaukee, they had seven players in double figures. Indiana is getting similar balance as they had six players score 10 or more points at Orlando. That kind of balance is huge with Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner still out with injuries. Pacers' games are averaging 215.2 PPG this year. I think it's pretty clear that this number opened too low. A key to this one going Over is that OKC is giving up 112.3 PPG on the road, well up from what they allow at home. 10* Over Thunder/Pacers

10* Under Seahawks/49ers (8:15 ET): I'm pretty shocked to see how little recent success the 49ers have had recently NFC West rivalry. Then again, I said the same thing going into last week's game vs. Arizona, whom they hadn't beaten since 2014. Now it's time to turn to Seattle. Going back to the infamous 2013 NFC Championship Game loss (where Richard Sherman sounded off on Michael Crabtree), the Niners had lost 10 in a row to the Seahawks. That losing streak ended w/ a 26-23 victory in Week 15 last year, right here at home as 3.5-point underdogs. Now the Niners look to make it two in a row as they put their perfect 8-0 SU record on the line Monday night. 

Last Thursday in Arizona was one of the rare times this SF defense looked mortal this season. They allowed the Cardinals to gain 7.1 yards per play in a game that got shockingly close at the end. The Niners still won though, 28-25. Going from playing on a Thursday night to MNF should allow for this defense to "get right" again. The 49ers are #1 in the league in yards allowed per game (241.0) and #2 in points (12.8). Only one QB (Andy Dalton!) has thrown for more than 240 yds against them as they've allowed the fewest number of completions and yards through the air. Bottom line is I expect a big bounce back effort from this excellent defense Monday night. 

The Niners' offense will be getting some key pieces back. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is set to return as are the two starting tackles, Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. But at the same time, TE George Kittle (who is Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite target) is doubtful and so is kicker Robbie Gould. So that's a break for the Seattle defense. The Under has gone 13-4 in Sunday/Monday night games this season (last night's MIN-DAL result pending) and w/ this being a divisional battle, I expect the same to happen here. 10* Under Seahawks/49ers

**As a BONUS, do a 7-pt teaser on side & total. SF +1 and Under 55

10* Under Mavericks/Celtics (7:35 ET): Both teams scored 135+ points in their last game, so the expectation here will be for another high-scoring affair. However, I think it's important to note neither team is likely to shoot the ball as well as they did against Memphis and San Antonio, respectively. The other big story here is that the Celtics are w/o Gordon Hayward (probably for awhile) after he fractured his left hand Saturday night. While the team still did go on to score 135 pts vs. the Spurs, Hayward's absence will undoubtedly be felt on the offensive end as he was having a really good start to the campaign. Take the Under here.

Dallas blitzed Memphis Saturday night, winning 138-122 as 5.5-pt road favorites. It's important to note the Grizzlies are a terrible team and not close to what they once were defensively. For the Mavs, that win was a welcome effort after they'd dropped their previous game to New York, a contest where they were 10.5-point home favorites. They scored just 102 points there. While 4-0 SU on the road so far, I do not anticipate the Mavs continuing to shoot 51% from the floor away from home. Their two best shooting nights of the season so far came against Cleveland and Memphis, two bad teams, both on the road. Boston has held three of its last four opponents under 40% shooting. They are #6 in the league in defensive efficiency.

The Mavs have just as many games where they shot below 40% (2) as they do over 50% so far. Facing Boston on the road should certainly lead to their impressive offensive numbers taking a hit. Opponents are barely shooting 41% against the Celtics for the year. As for the Celtics, the Hayward injury obviously hurts big-time and I do not anticipate the same collective level of scoring we saw from Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart that we saw Saturday vs. San Antonio (trio combined for 65 pts). Saturday was just the 2nd time Boston shot better than 50% this year and you should expect Dallas to play better defense here than they did in Memphis (allowed 52% shooting). Boston is 3-0 Under this year after scoring 115+ pts in the last game. 10* Under Mavericks/Celtics

10* Towson (7:00 ET): Towson has played two games thus far, the last one being a glorified scrimmage, which they won 100-31 against D-III Bryn Athyn. As you can imagine, the numbers from that game were fairly outrageous for the Tigers as they took a 59-15 lead into halftime and held the opposition to 24% shooting for the game, including 0 for 12 on three-point attempts! While little can be derived from that kind of victory, there's no denying that Towson's first win (over George Washington) had some merit. The Tigers won that one 72-58, easily covering the 5.5-pt spread. I'll lay the points here in the first ever meeting w/ Kent State. 

Kent State has played just once so far and it was a non-lined affair vs. a D-III school. While they did go on to beat Hiram College 97-58, note that it was only a nine-point game at halftime, which is a little troubling. In the second half, the Golden Flashes did catch fire from three-point range. They ended up making 13 three-pointers in the game and it also helped that Hiram turned the ball over 21 times. Towson certainly isn't going to be as generous this evening though and this being a road game, I think it's smart to be a little leery of what Kent State can really do in this spot. 

Towson has been able to show off its depth in the first two games. The bench accounted for 65 of the 100 points last game as starters basically sat the entire 2H. Also, the defense has been outstanding so far w/ the two opponents shooting just 31% overall and 20% from 3-pt range. Kent State relied heavily on the 3-pt shot against Hiram, but was only 43% overall from the field, which isn't a good sign here. While Towson was NOT one of the five teams in the CAA that earned a first place vote in the preseason poll, they are nevertheless dangerous, especially w/ this infusion of young talent. Kent State is more experienced, but still is a middle of the road MAC team. The home court edge matters big time here as the Golden Flashes are 0-7 ATS the L2 seasons as a road dog of 3 pts or less. 10* Towson

10* Arizona (9:00 ET): Any concern #21 Arizona may have over impending NCAA sanctions weren't apparent Wednesday night when they completely wiped the floor w/ Northern Arizona. Obviously, it figured to be a lopsided affair going in. But the Wildcats easily covered the 23.5-point spread, winning 91-52 for HC Sean Miller. Freshman Zeke Nnaji led the way w/ 20 points as Arizona dominated down low. Nnaji is one of seven newcomers to the Arizona program this year, so it's no wonder the issues surrounding the program aren't affecting the current roster. Lay the points.

This will be the third game for Illinois. But unlike what Arizona did in its first game, the Fighting Illini have failed to overwhelm two lesser opponents. A pair of eight point wins over Nicholls State and Grand Canyon really aren't all that impressive when you think about it and then needed OT to beat Nicholls State at home. The +56 rebounding margin the Illini has enjoyed so far won't be present here. Also, playing a third game in less than a week really isn't the best setup for the first true test of the season is it? Especially when its a second road game in three nights and out on the West Coast.

Arizona is simply deeper and better than Illinois. They are also better rested. Not only did Illinois need OT to beat Nicholls State in the opener, they only led Grand Canyon by four at halftime on Friday. Asking them to "keep up" in Tucson seems like a tall order considering the Illini have won just 3 of their previous 23 road games (includes the win at Grand Canyon)!  10* Arizona

10* Under Panthers/Packers (4:25 ET): Going back to 2005, the Over is 7-0 when these teams meet. But as we saw last week, the Packers offense is far from perfect. In a game where we faded them, they were held to 13 first downs, 184 yards total and 3.8 yards per play. They lost 26-11 out in LA, ending what had been a 4-game win streak. At 7-2, GB is still in good shape as they'll likely be favored in all but two games the rest of the way. But last week's offensive effort is tough to shake for us. This is a team "due" for some Unders after 5 of 6 games prior to last week's loss had gone Over. We're on the Under here. 

Carolina has gone Over in four straight games scoring 30+ in three of them (all wins) while conceding 51 (to San Francisco) in the lone loss. We were on that Over in the loss to San Francisco. The Panthers are now officially Kyle Allen's team after Cam Newton was placed on IR this week. If Newton wasn't 100 percent, then that's the right decision. But I have a hard time believing this team is better, long-term, w/ Allen at the helm. They were held under 300 yds by a poor Tampa Bay defense three weeks ago in London. Last week was just the second time in the L5 games they gained more than 300 total yards. 

On paper, this Packers defense facing Carolina RB Christian McCaffery doesn't seem like a good matchup. It seems as if any "improvement" by this Packers defense may have been overstated early in the year when they were facing some weak defenses. Since Wk 4, they've given up at least 22 pts every game. But I'm calling for their best defensive effort since Week 3 in this one. In terms of YPG, both of these offenses rank in the bottom half of the league. The Over streaks, both head to head and for Carolina, are "due" to end here. 10* Under Panthers/Packers

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The 2019 season couldn't be going more differently for these two NFC South rivals. The Saints, despite Drew Brees missing five games, are on pace for a franchise record 14 wins. They also have the league's longest active ATS win streak at 6 games. Atlanta seems to be inching towards the end of the Dan Quinn era, that is unless things change drastically in the second half of the season. They're 1-7 SU overall and 0-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS the L6 games. But while recent history may not be on their side, the Falcons are a desperate, double-digit division dog this week. That's a spot we like, especially with Matt Ryan coming back. 

While Atlanta has been the worst bet in the NFL over the L2 seasons (7-17 ATS) w/ a ton of outright losses, they are not a DD dog often. In fact, it's happened only five times in the Matt Ryan era and just once under Quinn. While the Falcons are 0-5 straight up in those games, they've gone 4-1 ATS. The spread for each of Atlanta's first seven games was always four points or less. Were the Falcons to get blown out here, off their bye, things would be REAL ugly for Quinn. Can't see that happening. Ryan being back is huge. Against Seattle two weeks ago, even w/o Ryan, the Falcons outgained the Seahawks 510-322, but lost due to being -3 in turnovers. This team is better than its won-loss record. They're outgaining opponents on both a per play and per game basis! 

New Orleans is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS. They won every start w/ Teddy Bridgewater starting in place of Brees, but were clearly undervalued in those games. Despite their dominant record, the Saints have five wins by a TD or less. In Brees' return, they did beat the Cardinals 31-9, but that was also a one possession game going into the 4th quarter. They call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for a reason and eventually luck and those ATS results are going to even out. Love the points here. 10* Atlanta

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): There may be some head-scratching over the fact a 2-6 team (Cleveland) is favored over a 6-2 team (Buffalo), but if history is any indication, then the Browns are in good shape here. It's not unprecedented to see a line like this, but it is rare. This is only the 7th time in the L25 seasons that this situation presents itself, that being a team w/ a .250 win percentage or lower being favored over a team w/ a .750 win percentage in Week 6 or later. But when it happens, the favorite is a perfect 6-0 ATS! It's only the third time it's happened in Week 10 or later in the Super Bowl era and the favorite is 2-0 ATS previously. Lay the points. 

Buffalo is 6-2 SU and in good position to make the playoffs. But they've certainly taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule. Not only are the Bills the only team besides the Patriots to get to face the Jets & Dolphins twice (2-0 SU so far), they've also gotten to play the Giants, Redskins and Bengals, who are a collective 3-23 SU. Their six wins this year have come against teams that are a combined 9-42 straight up. 

Cleveland was the "trendy" team coming into the 2019 season, but we see how that's gone. In retrospect, Freddie Kitchens was probably the wrong hire as HC and Baker Mayfield is regressing. But things may not be as bad for the Browns as you think. RB Kareem Hunt is finally able to return from an 8-game suspension. It's not like the offense lacks talent. Just last week, they ran 30 more plays than Denver and possessed the ball for 11 more minutes. But six trips in the red zone resulted in only 19 pts and they lost by five. They are now 0-3 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. They are also 0-3 SU/ATS at home. That has to change. The schedule so far has been tough. While the Bills have gotten to play all those weak teams, the Browns have had to face the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, among others. This is just the 2nd home game in six weeks. Home teams in games where the total is 41 pts or less have gone 14-6 ATS this season and 107-85-6 ATS the L5 seasons. It's now or never for the Browns. 8* Cleveland

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): With Patrick Mahomes set to return, this number has skyrocketed in the Chiefs' direction. The thing is, I thought the original number would have been appropriate even w/ Mahomes factored into the equation. HC Andy Reid has struggled in his career vs. the Titans, going 1-7 SU against them, including 0-3 SU/ATS w/ the Chiefs and all of those losses came as a favorite. There was a playoff loss two years ago that really stung. But right now Tennessee isn't even thinking playoffs. They are a desperate home dog off a tough loss LW at Carolina. Typically, this is a stronger team at home and under Mike Vrabel, they are 5-1 ATS/4-2 as dogs of 4+ pts. Take the points. 

There are two "old school" characteristics Tennessee should lean on here in order to pull the upset. One is their defense. They only give up 18.3 PPG, which is 7th best in the league. The other is run the ball effectively, which they should be able to do. I didn't think RB Derrick Henry got the ball enough, especially in the 1H, LW vs. Carolina. Henry averages 18.2 touches per game, which is important to note because RB's who get at least 14 carries against this Chiefs' defense average 109.4 YPG. The Chiefs' defense has allowed 180+ yards rushing in four different games this year. Also, the Titans offense is averaging about a full yard per play more w/ Ryan Tannehill at QB than they were w/ Marcus Mariota. 

One has to wonder how Mahomes will play in his first game back from a knee injury. Prior to the injury, the Chiefs' offense had actually been regressing. They'd been held under 26 pts in B2B games, both losses, something that had previous never happened w/ Mahomes as the starter. All but one of KC's last seven games has been decided by one score. They just seem like a real "public side" here caught laying too many points on the road. 8* Tennessee

10* Nashville (10:35 ET): You can bet the Predators will be eager to take the ice here after being embarrassed in Colorado Thursday night. They lost 9-4 to the Avs, a shocking result for a team that had outscored its first 15 opponents by 17 goals. It was also their third loss in the last four games. But they get a reprieve tonight w/ this matchup against the Sharks. Despite posting B2B wins, San Jose has not been good this season as they've been outscored by 17 goals so far. Earlier in the week, I took Nashville on the road against a lesser opponent (Detroit). They won 6-1 and that's what I'm expecting here.

This will be the 5th game on a 6-game homestand for San Jose. They lost the first two. But now they're back to 2-2 through four games. However, the two wins were against Chicago and Minnesota, the two weakest teams out of the Central. Plus, both situations were favorable. The Sharks got to play the Blackhawks at the end of a long road trip while the Wild were also in the 2nd of B2B road games. They still are allowing the 4th most goals per game in the league entering tonight.

Everyone is talking about Washington's offense right now, but Nashville actually averages the same number of goals per game (4.00). But it obviously wasn't offense that was the problem Thursday at Colorado. The nine goals allowed were a franchise record. Most shocking of all is how it happened. They actually led the Avalanche 3-2 in the second period before giving up SIX goals in an eight-minute span. Needless to say, such a thing won't be happening for the rest of the year. The Preds are simply the much better team here and already beat San Jose once, 5-2 back on October 8th (despite being outshot 35-25). 10* Nashville

8* Boise State (10:15 ET): Boise State is no stranger to occupying this space. The Broncos were last involved in a LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection when I faded them three weeks ago at BYU. They lost that game outright, as 7-point favorites, 28-25. It's their only SU loss this season. This week, I'll be taking the Broncos and it has a lot to do with whom they are facing. Wyoming has been a previous target due to the fact they've been winning games while consistently being outplayed. The last time I got involved in a Wyoming game was four weeks ago w/ a LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection on San Diego State. That's one of two games the Cowboys have lost this year.

The big story here is Wyoming lost its starting QB last week. Sean Chambers made his 1st start midway through last season and really turned the team around. Chambers went 10-2 SU as the starter, but is now done for the season after injuring his knee LW vs. Nevada. Backup Tyler Vander Waal was hardly effective in completing only 3 of 10 pass attempts. The Cowboys were lucky they didn't need Vander Waal to do much as they were already up 24-3 when he came into the game. Boise State knows all too well the importance of having your starting QB on the field. Hank Bachmeier missed that BYU game, but returned last week and led the Broncos' offense to a 52-point effort against San Jose State.

The Broncos' defense did give up 42 points and almost 500 total yards last week, but that was on the road. Wyoming, with a backup QB making his first career start, is not a threat. That this game is on the "Blue Turf" is very significant. Wyoming has been outgained by nearly 100 YPG on the road this year (outgained in all three games) and averages only 22.0 PPG. That was w/ Chambers at QB. Boise State is 12-1 all-time vs. Wyoming (lone loss was in Laramie) w/ the avg MOV being 24.4 PPG. The Broncos are 17-1 SU the L18 MWC home games. My numbers say this number would be too low even if Chambers was the starter for Wyoming! 8* Boise State

10* Missouri (7:00 ET): While Tigers QB Kelly Bryant remains a "game-time decision" here, this is a play regardless. Admittedly, Mizzou has been a very inconsistent team this year. They've suffered some real head-scratching losses this year, including the last 2 weeks at Vanderbilt and Kentucky. They also lost the season opener at Wyoming. But it is certainly worth mentioning that there was a time when this was considered a Top 20 team in the country. B2B losses have sent them tumbling and while they now have to face to #6 Georgia, this will actually be the 1st time all season that the Tigers have been underdogs! Take the points w/ a dangerous team. 

We certainly know that Georgia isn't immune to a shocking home loss. It was four weeks ago we faded them vs. South Carolina and they got beat 20-17 as 20.5-pt underdogs (in overtime). Since that time, they've bounced back to shutout Kentucky 21-0 and then last week win the big rivalry game over Florida (24-17). As mentioned earlier, that has the Dawgs ranked #6 in the initial CFP poll and pundits are back to talking about a path to the top four. Sounds like it could be an ideal time for another letdown. Not only is UGA coming off a win over Florida, but they have Auburn (a much bigger game) and Texas A&M on deck. This looks like the proverbial "sandwich spot" for the favorite.

I go back to something I talked about in the analysis for South Carolina-Georgia. UGA is a somewhat offensively challenged team. They've scored 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games. So it's problematic for them covering a spread this large. Not only has Missouri not been a dog previous to this, they'd actually been favored to win every game by least 9.5 points! The Tigers have the top pass defense in the entire SEC. It does sound like Bryant will play. While Missouri has only beaten Georgia once since becoming SEC rivals, they've covered five of the seven meetings, including the last four. So they have a history of playing the Dawgs tough. That continues Saturday. 10* Missouri

8* Over Iowa/Wisconsin (4:00 ET): Another game w/ a really low total. Iowa has not fared well as an underdog, going just 4-11 ATS the L15 times. As a ROAD underdog, things get even more bleak as they are 0-7 SU/ATS the L7 times in that role. The Hawkeyes have not beaten a ranked opponent all season and have lost six of seven to Wisconsin, including 28-17 LY in Iowa City. Giving the Hawkeyes some hope here is the fact the Badgers have lost two straight games, one of them to Illinois. But both losses were on the road. I know both defenses are outstanding, but this Wisconsin offense is much better in Madison. Look for this one to sneak Over the total. 

Both teams are off byes. Last we saw Wisconsin, they were getting blown out by Ohio State (lost 38-7). The Badgers entered that game absolutely shell-shocked after losing at Illinois the week prior, as a 29-point favorite. They'd been humming right along prior to that, scoring 35 or more points five times in a 6-0 start. I know the defense has pitched four shutouts this year, but those came against some pretty overmatched offenses. Five consecutive Unders have this O/U line as the lowest all season for the Badgers. Every Wisconsin game this season has seen at least 38 total pts scored. They average 41.2 PPG themselves at Camp Randall. 

While Wisconsin's defense is #1 in the country in yards allowed, Iowa's is even stingier in the points allowed department. The Hawkeyes have allowed just 10.1 PPG, the lowest average in Kirk Ferentz's 21 years in Iowa City. They've allowed just 9 TDs all year, which is tied for 2nd fewest. But the oddsmakers were well aware of all this when they set this total. Iowa has gone Under four straight times, but only the last game (20-0 shutout of a terrible Northwestern team) had a lower O/U line. If both teams can score at least 17 points here, which really isn't asking much, then we're virtually assured of an Over. Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor has 19 TD's himself this season while Iowa QB Nate Stanley has the most passing yards in the Big 10. 8* Over Iowa/Wisconsin

8* Under North Texas/La Tech (4:00 ET): With two explosive offenses, this number has been bet way up during the week. But I like the Under, in large part due to the recent results both teams have had. There's been a lot of feasting on bad teams from both North Texas and Louisiana Tech this season, so don't look for either offense to put up the kind of numbers you're used to seeing here. North Texas has gone Over in five straight while La Tech has gone Over in three straight. The results of those streaks is the highest O/U line either has seen all year. Take the Under. 

North Texas scored 52 pts last week as QB Mason Fine threw for a career-high 7 TD passes. But that was against UTEP. The Mean Green offense has largely been disappointing in 2019. Some of that is due to injuries. But they are averaging just 27.2 PPG on the road as well. Take away UTEP, UTSA and Abilene Christian (FCS) and UNT has scored more than 33 in only one game. While I won't go so far as to say the Louisiana Tech defense is "good," they are allowing just 24.0 PPG this year. This will be just the second time all season that a total for a North Texas game is above 60 points. 

Louisiana Tech is off a bye. The Bulldogs are the only team w/o loss in Conference USA play as they are 4-0 and lead the West Division. Similar to North Texas, there's been only one La Tech game w/ an O/U line higher than 60 pts. The offensive numbers out of Ruston are impressive, but the Bulldogs have played an incredibly weak schedule so far. The road team is 2-0 the L2 years in this C-USA rivalry w/ the games decided by a total of three points. Neither game saw more 56 total points scored. I expect another competitive game here w/ some surprising defense being played. 8* Under North Texas/La Tech

8* Western Kentucky (4:00 ET): Both teams won their opening game. Western Kentucky prevailed 76-64 over Tennessee Tech here in Bowling Green, but failed to cover as 19-point favorites. Austin Peay was a 110-67 winner over Oakland City, but do not make the mistake of reading too much into that result. Oakland City is a Division II school that had no chance of winning. 

Austin Peay did win 22 games last season, but did not make the postseason. They bring back just one starter from that team, Terry Taylor, who scored 21 points in the opener. That's right about where his output was a season ago (20.5 PPG). But the rest of the team being as prolific as it was vs. Oakland City is not something that should be counted upon regularly. The Governors were an insane 41 of 59 on 2-pt attempts Tuesday. That probably won't happen again this season. The size advantage they enjoyed in that first game simply won't be present here. 

Western Kentucky could be considered the favorite in C-USA this season. They bring back a majority of the team that won 20 games last season. Though they did not cover the large spread in the opening game, they did lead by double digits for the entirety of the second half. They didn't even shoot that well from three-point range, so that's something to look for here. The Hilltoppers were a strong 21-13 overall at the betting window last season. This number ought to be higher, so we'll lay it. 8* Western Kentucky

8* Over South Alabama/Texas State (3:00 ET): It's been awhile since a game involving South Alabama went Over the total. In fact, it's happened just once all year and that was on September 7th vs. a FCS opponent (Jackson State). The Jaguars scored 37 points that day in an easy win. They have not won since and have scored just 59 points in six games! But those of you who follow my O/U plays know that this is the time where I love to "go contrarian." That's going to be a theme for this 3-pack of totals, by the way. In a game w/ a very low number, take the Over.

Speaking of things that haven't happened in a while, how about Texas State covering a game? The Bobcats are 0-5-2 ATS in lined games this year. They are 2-6 SU overall and have been held to 17 pts or less in all six losses. One of their wins was against a FCS school, Nicholls State (won 24-3). The only other win was a high-scoring affair vs. Georgia State, which ended up as a 37-34 final thanks to triple overtime. Considering the dearth of scoring from both sides, I can't say I'm surprised that the number is so low. But this will be the lowest O/U line for any game this season for either team and by a pretty wide margin. 

The previous low total for Texas St is 48 points. All other games had a total of 55 pts or higher. For South Alabama, most of their totals have been 50 pts or higher as well. It's telling that Texas State's two highest scoring efforts of the year came when they were favored. They are about a TD favorite this week and the home team has captured all four meetings between these schools. All four of those games saw at least 44 total pts scored. Last year was a 41-31 USA win in Mobile. I know Texas State has injuries at QB/RB, but the backup QB (Tyler Vitt) at least now has a start under his belt. With this being a matchup of two of the worst teams in the country, there is the potential for a shootout. Neither defense can stop the run as they give up 222 and 226 yards per game respectively. 8* Over South Alabama/Texas State

10* Nebraska (2:00 ET): I have to admit that when I first glanced at this line, I thought someone from Nebraska had to be injured. I know Southern Utah is a "program on the rise," but this number is way too short. The game is in Lincoln after all! The reason for the short line is that the Cornhuskers are in off an embarrassing loss in their opener where they fell 66-47 to UC Riverside as 15.5-pt favorites. It was an ice cold shooting night in HC Fred Hoiberg's debut. That's not going to happen again and you should look to take advantage of this line, which is way too low. 

Nebraska shot just 29.1% from the floor Tuesday vs. UC Riverside, a shocking performance indeed. They were 6 of 26 from three-point range w/ three of their top shooters going a collective 1 for 11. Incredibly, as a team, they missed 35 of their final 44 shots overall. That is unconscionable! Even the free throw line was unkind as Nebraska went 9 for 19 there. As embarrassing a setback as that may have been, you have to chalk it up to "one of those nights." I don't think it's indicative of what we'll see out of Lincoln under Hoiberg.

Southern Utah smoked Bethesda in its first game, winning 110-66. But that's a non-board team and this is a big step up travelling to face an opponent out of the Big 10. Last year was Southern Utah's best finish in ages as they went 17-17 and won a game in the CIT. But there's still a big gap between them and Nebraska. Key here is that SUU likes to run, just like Nebraska does, so it's a better matchup for the favorite than UC Riverside was. Also, the Thunderbirds lack the size UC Riverside had. Nebraska allowed just 61.2 PPG in non-conference play a season ago. Defense wasn't the issue on Tuesday though. It'll be the obvious offensive improvement that carries them to a cover here. 10* Nebraska

10* Over Vanderbilt/Florida (12:00 ET): This SEC East rivalry is about as one-sided as it gets. Vandy thought they had the Gators "dead to rights" last year, up 21-3 in the 2nd quarter. But UF would go onto score the next 24 pts en route to a 37-27 win, their 27th in the last 28 meetings. Last year, the Gators were off a big win over LSU. This year, they come in off a loss to Georgia. Despite having two losses already (other to LSU), the Gators were still ranked #10 in the first CFP rankings. They clearly have a decided edge this week over the struggling Commodores. But I'm not about to lay this big number. I will however take the Over. 

Things have not been pretty w/ this Vanderbilt offense, nor have the results at the betting window. The Commodores are 1-6 ATS, the lone cover coming in an upset of Missouri a few weeks back. Last week saw them get beat 24-7 by South Carolina, the fifth straight game for the Commies to stay Under. But there's a big change this week and it's at QB. Riley Neal was knocked out of last week's game w/ a concussion. So Deuce Wallace, who has appeared in six games in a relief role, will make his first career start this week. While it seems like a tough spot, the Florida defense has held only FBS opponent below 20 points. 

Wallace's ability as a runner will add a different dimension to the Vandy offense by HC Mason's own admission. He also gets senior WR Kalija Lipscomb (missed LW vs. South Carolina) back from injury. The Florida defense is w/o two starting linebackers. On the other side, Florida could not run the ball at all against Georgia last week. The result was their lowest scoring effort of the year. But the Gators shouldn't have too much trouble moving the ball on a Vandy defense that is giving up almost 500 YPG on the road, not to mention also 32.4 PPG. Florida averages over 35 PPG here in "The Swamp." With the 5-game Under streak, this is the lowest O/U line for any Vandy game this year. Time for an Over. 10* Over Vanderbilt/Florida

analysis soon

8* Over Raptors/Pelicans (8:05 ET): New Orleans is no stranger to high totals. When they faced the Rockets a few weeks ago, we took the Over at 238.5 and cashed by double digits. Their last game had a total of 239.5 and it too went Over (lost 135-125 to Brooklyn). All but one Pelicans' game this season has gone Over as oddsmakers struggle to make these numbers high enough. This one still isn't high enough. Take the Over.

While the Pelicans find themselves at 1-6 SU, Toronto has played pretty well in a 5-2 start. Remember Kawhi Leonard took off for LA, so it's supposed to be a big step back for the reigning NBA Champs. But I still see them finishing top five in the East pretty easily. The Raptors' only two losses so far were at Boston and Milwaukee. They had three days rest after losing to the Bucks and scored 124 pts in a win over Sacramento Wednesday. That game saw them shoot 55% from the field.

New Orleans is averaging 119.3 PPG, yet is still 1-6 SU. That should tell you all you need to know about the kind of defense they play, which is to say it's non-existent. Last year, they were tied for worst in points per game allowed (116.8) in the Western Conference, so they've actually regressed. Right now they are dead last, giving up 124.3 PPG. This is the rematch of the season opener in Toronto, won by the Raptors 130-122. While that game did go to OT, the Pelicans have twice allowed more points in regulation this season. Toronto just allowed Sacramento to make a franchise-record 20 three-pointers in its last game. 8* Over Raptors/Pelicans

8* Over Cavs/Wizards (7:05 ET): Continuing a theme we saw throughout last year, Cleveland has played terrible defense its last two games, both of which resulted in losses at home. They allowed Dallas to shoot 53.2% from the field while Boston was at 56.5%. They allowed a combined 250 points in those two losses. But like their opponents tonight, the Cavs are in store for some better shooting of their own. They've shot below 42% each of the L3 games and that's unlikely to continue. Take the Over here. 

Washington just shot 38.9% from the floor in its 121-106 loss at Indiana Wednesday night. It was the Wizards' second time finishing w/ that exact percentage in their L3 games. Here at home, you'd expect improved shooting. Remember - there was a home game earlier this year where the Wizards scored 158 points in regulation and shot 63.2%! But what you shouldn't ever expect from this team is good defense. They've lost four of five and given up at least 121 pts in all four losses. That game where they scored 158 in regulation was actually a LOSS as they gave up 159! Right now, only four teams are allowing a higher PPG average than the Wiz.

When the dust of this season starts to settle, you'll find these teams likely located at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. The Cavs are in the second year of a massive rebuild after LeBron James left them a second time. The Wizards will likely be w/o John Wall the entire season due to an ACL tear. On the bright side, the Cavs did have six players in double figures against Boston. Bradley Beal has picked up the scoring slack for Washington w/ three 30+ pt games so far. But the teams currently sit at 24th and 27th in defensive efficiency and this figures to turn into a track meet. 8* Over Cavs/Wizards

10* Miami FL (7:00 ET): Coming off a 13-point home loss to Louisville, you've got to figure "The U" will be pretty fired up here. FAU seems like an ideal matchup as the 'Canes are 23-1 SU against them all-time, including a 20-point win as 14-pt favorites LY. The Owls are definitely a step down in class from L'ville, the #5 ranked team in the country. Though Miami initially led 16-9 Tuesday night, little else went right after that. They closed the game on a 16-2 run to make the final score at least respectable. But they did trail by as many as 32. Still, they are the play here. Lay the number. 

Miami is much deeper and more experienced team than they were a season ago when they finished just 14-18, ending a three-year NCAA Tournament run. Defensively, I expect a much better effort here than what we saw Tuesday. HC Jim Larranaga preached defense all off-season, yet his team allowed L'ville to shoot 55% from the field, which is terribly disappointing. But again, that's a much better team that what they'll be facing here. Last year, the Hurricanes held FAU to 33% shooting and were up 23 by halftime. 

 FAU played a Division II team (Flagler) in its opening game, so little can be drawn from that. The Owls scored 92 points with some red hot shooting, but also gave up 81 points and had 20 turnovers, which are not good signs. In last year's game, Miami had its way on the interior, making 20 of 29 two-point shots! The Canes did shoot well in the 2H vs. L'ville, including 50% from three-point range. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS following a SU loss while FAU is 8-20 ATS off its L28 SU wins. 10* Miami FL

10* Oklahoma City (8:35 ET): San Antonio is just 1-6 against the spread, which is the worst mark in the league. What makes that ATS record so interesting is that the team is also 4-3 SU. The Spurs were exactly expected to be world-beaters this season, yet have been favored in almost every game. They've lost the last two, however, including 108-100 at Atlanta Tuesday where they were a six-point road favorite. The only game the Spurs covered so far was against Golden State, who is a mess right now. Even coming off an upset loss, I just don't want any part of this Spurs team right now, especially laying points. Take the dog in this Western Conference matchup. 

The Thunder are only 3-4 SU, but have a better scoring differential than the Spurs. They are coming off consecutive victories at home, over New Orleans and Orlando, where they did a solid job defensively. They currently rank third in the league in defensive efficiency, trailing only Utah and the Lakers. Long-time followers know how much I value the defensive efficiency metric. So even though little is expected from OKC this year, my view is they are an undervalued team right now. Three of their four losses have been by five points or less. They've allowed only one opponent to score more than 104 pts so far and that was Houston, who leads the Western Conference in PPG. 

The Thunder have lost the last four times they've ventured into San Antonio, also going 0-4 ATS. That seems a little strange as the teams have generally been pretty competitive the last couple years. Obviously, there's been a mass exodus of talent in OKC, but the same can be said for San Antonio. The Spurs have shot poorly the L2 games (not surprising since they lost both) and don't look for them to turn it around here as the Thunder lead the league in opposing FG% (40.3) and 3-point % (27.3). San Antonio's defense has slipped this year as they've yet to hold an opponent below 100 points. 10* Oklahoma City. 

9* Vancouver (8:35 ET): Our last NHL play (Tuesday) was on the Canucks and unfortunately they lost, 2-1 in overtime to the St. Louis Blues. But remember some of what I wrote in that analysis. The Canucks came into that game sporting the best goal differential in the entire Western Conference. This is a team that's still gone almost two weeks w/o losing in regulation. In fact, a 1-0 loss in New Jersey on 10.19 is the ONLY Vancouver loss in regulation since the 2nd game of the season! Let's come back w/ the Canucks here as they play a pretty weak Chicago side.

The Blackhawks have won just four games this season, tied for the fewest in the league. This club just isn't what it used to be. It's 33 goals scored actually ranks LAST in the league coming into Thursday, which is a bigger problem than usual as only one team in the Western Conference (Nashville) has scored more goals this season than Vancouver. Even when the Canucks weren't winning much the last couple seasons, they generally handled their business against the Blackhawks. They've taken five of the previous six head to head matchups. 

There's another issue for Chicago heading into this game and that's the number of shots they've been allowing recently. The previous five Blackhawks' opponents have averaged 41.3 shots per game, a very high number indeed. Vancouver did outshoot St. Louis in its last game, 34-27, and hasn't dropped B2B games since starting 0-2. The Canucks are a perfect 3-0 this season following a game in which they scored 1 goal or less. Chicago has lost 7 of 9 and this is the first game back after a long-road trip. They're set to hit the road again Saturday (playing in Pittsburgh), so there may not be a lot left in the tank late in this game. 9* Vancouver

10* Over Chargers/Raiders (8:25 ET): How about them Chargers? We had them Sunday as they delivered an outright win over the Packers, 26-11 as 3.5-point dogs. Few, if any, gave the Lightning Bolts a real chance heading into that one. But I saw a slightly overrated Green Bay team ripe to be upset. Los Angeles played arguably its best game of the season, outgaining the Packers 442-184 for the game and 6.5 to 3.8 on a per play basis. While it might seem strange to read, look for the Chargers' defense to be tested more this week by the Raiders than it was by the Packers. LA is 7-1 Under its last 8 games, but take the Over on this one. 

Oakland also got its 4th win of the season on Sunday. The Silver and Black beat the Lions 31-24 as a three-point favorite, the first time all year that the Raiders were chalk. They've now gone Over in 5 of the last 6 games. The past five weeks have seen the Raiders score 24 pts or more in every game. That's a number the Chargers haven't allowed more than except one time all year (allowed 27 to the Texans). So something will clearly have to give in this AFC West tilt. Recent history may not be on our side here as the L5 meetings have all gone Under. But w/ the Chargers offense looking improved last week and the Raiders also matching their season high in pts scored in a game, this one should break the trend.

The Chargers' defense was one of the primary reasons I called for the upset LW vs. GB. They are allowing just 18.7 PPG for the year, including 15.5 on the road. But they've also not exactly faced a tremendous slate of opposing QB's and offenses. Derek Carr has averaged nearly 300 yards passing the past three games. The Raiders also ran for 171 yards against the Lions, the 4th time in the last 5 wks they went for 150+ on the ground. But a problem the team still has is a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most significant statistical categories. Last week, the Lions gained an amazing 7.5 yards per play! 10* Over Chargers/Raiders 

10* Under Celtics/Hornets (8:05 ET): Boston has won five straight and has the best win percentage in the Eastern Conference. I don't think they've been nearly as impressive as Milwaukee has, but they did beat the Bucks once (coming back from 19 down). Of course, it also helps to have faced the Knicks twice. The Celtics' last two victories haven't been all that impressive as they were by a combined eight points over New York & Cleveland. We faded the C's in Cleveland Tuesday and came away w/ a push. Here it's a play on the Under. They won't be matching the hot shooting from that Cleveland game. 

While Boston was shooting 56.5% from the field in Cleveland, Charlotte got to go to the free throw line 42 times in what ended up being a 122-120 OT win over Indiana. Neither team is going to come close to matching those numbers from the respective last games. The Celtics are still only shooting 44% overall even after the win in Cleveland. Gordon Hayward scored 39 points vs. the Cavs, going a ridiculous 16 of 16 on 2-pt attempts. Again, that's not going to happen here. The Hornets average 23 FT attempts per game, so getting to the charity stripe 42 times like they did vs. Indiana also seems unlikely to repeat itself.

The huge number of free throw attempts was almost solely responsible for the Hornets beating the Pacers Tuesday. Indiana got only SEVEN FT attempts the entire game! Despite the massive edge at FT line, Charlotte still almost lost as it allowed the Pacers to shoot 54.3%. I'd look for better defense here. Note the game prior, which the Hornets also won, was a 93-87 final against Golden State. Winners of three in a row, the Hornets have alternated going Over and then Under all season. All four games w/ Boston went Over LY, but it's a new season and this should be a low-scoring game. The Celtics hold teams to 104.7 PPG, which is 2nd fewest in the Eastern Conference. 10* Under Celtics/Hornets

10* South Florida (8:00 ET): The home team has won all five meetings between these schools and there has been a history of upsets. The first three meetings saw an outright win by the home dog every time. The last two years, the home team entered favored. Last year it was USF going to Philly on a season-worst three-game losing streak and losing 27-17. But they covered as a 13-point dog thanks to taking a 17-0 lead going into halftime. The last time Temple came to Tampa is the ONLY time in the history of the series where the favorite covered. USF won 43-7 w/ a 408-85 edge in total yards. I bring all this up because Temple remains a shaky road team in 2019. While it probably won't get as ugly as it did two years ago here (also a Thurs night game!), take the Bulls.

Temple has pulled a few notable upsets this season. The Owls (+5.5) beating Maryland 20-17 back in Week 3 seemed impressive at the time, but the Terrapins have gone from chic to lousy. The Owls did beat Memphis 30-28 as 4-pt home dogs, but that was thanks to four Tigers' turnovers more than anything else. Temple was outgained in that game. Since then, they've been exposed w/ ugly losses to SMU (45-21) and UCF (63-21) w/ the defense giving up 600+ yards in both games. Temple's lone road win of the season came against East Carolina, by a score of 27-17, but they did not cover as 12-pt chalk. They are now 0-3 ATS in all road games.

USF has taken some lumps this year, but has battled back to win four of its last six overall. They had won five straight coming off a regular season bye before running into SMU earlier in this season. The Bulls will get a chance to play spoiler down the stretch w/ remaining games against Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF. Including this one, they'll have to win twice to become bowl eligible. USF has actually performed slightly better than Temple has on a per play basis this season and the Owls' shaky play on the road is cause for concern. The Owls have just ONE win this season by more than 3 pts against a FBS opponent. USF's defense is #1 in the AAC against the pass and they have forced the 2nd most turnovers in the COUNTRY. Temple has the 2nd most TO's in the conference this year. 10* South Florida

8* UCLA (11:00 ET): The Mick Cronin era is set to begin at UCLA. This once proud program has descended into almost being irrelevant, but Cronin should get them back to the top of the Pac 12. Cronin did an excellent job the L13 seasons in Cincinnati, who was perenially one of the top defensive teams in the country. He inherits 13 returning players from the previous regime. The first game is against Long Beach State, a team the Bruins have pretty much dominated over the years. They are 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) the L7 meetings including a 91-80 win to open last season. Lay the points here in Cronin's debut. 

LBSU is known for taking on a challenging non-conference schedule under HC Dan Monson. But last year saw them drop 10 of 14 non-conf games while giving up nearly 80 PPG. This year could be a lot uglier and not because of the defense. The top five scorers from LY's team are all gone. No returning player averaged more than 7.2 PPG last season. No one else on this current roster averaged more than 4.0 PPG. The 49ers have finished under .500 five of the last six seasons and have won just 15 games each of the L3 seasons. It could be a long season. 

UCLA was terrible defensively last season, but I project them to be one of the most improved teams in the country in that department under Cronin's guidance. This was a very good hire. Last year's team had all sorts of distractions and Steve Alford got fired 13 games into the season. Don't forget the program had to deal w/ the Ball family two years ago. It's a more focused group coming into 2019 and Cronin brought in three four-star recruits. Even if Prince Ali's ankle doesn't allow him to play here, the Bruins have enough talent on hand to win big. Cronin is looking to make a statement here. 8* UCLA 

10* Under Bucks/Clippers (10:05 ET): Two hot teams meet Wednesday night on ESPN in what could very well be a Finals preview. The Bucks have won three straight and are coming off their highest scoring effort of the year, a 134-106 win in Minnesota Monday night. The Clippers have won two straight, the most recent being a 105-94 victory over Utah. Unfortunately, a bit of the luster of this matchup has been lost w/ LA deciding to sit Kawhi Leonard (front end of a B2B). That's obviously going to impact their ability to score. Take the Under.

The Bucks have scored 115 or more points in every game but one, so they've picked up right where they left off offensively last season. They were #3 in offensive efficiency a year ago, the first season under Mike Budenholzer, and have jumped to #1 so far this season. But, let us not forget that this team was also #1 in defensive efficiency last year. They've slipped some (down to #8) this year, but have also been a lot better recently, giving up an average of just over 100 PPG the L3 contests. Teams are shooting just over 40% for the year against the Bucks. They held Minnesota to 35.9% from the field.

Obviously, defending the Clippers w/o Kawhi will be a lot easier. The Clippers' last four games have all gone Under anyway and they didn't shoot particularly well w/ Leonard in the lineup against either the Spurs or Jazz. Note the only other time Leonard rested this season, the Clips could manage only 96 points in a loss to the Jazz. That was easily a season-low in points scored. Leonard leads the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals, so it goes w/o saying that he'll be missed. 10* Under Bucks/Clippers 

10* Ohio (8:00 ET): This Wednesday night matchup will go a long way in determining who wins the MAC East this year. It's a division Ohio won as recently as 2016, but they've haven't won a Conference Championship since 1968! Miami shares the same 3-1 SU record in MAC games this year and is now 19-7 SU their L26 conference games overall. This is a rivalry game ("Battle for the Bricks"), one that I personally am quite familiar with as Ohio U is my alma mater. But just to show how unbiased I am, last year I had Miami in their 30-28 upset (as 4-pt dogs) in Oxford (also a Wednesday game). But it's back to the alma mater in 2019 as I'll lay the points. 

Last year's upset snapped a string of five straight wins by OU in the "Battle for the Bricks." I thought it was a terrible spot for them as they were coming off a 59-14 win the week prior and totally overvalued. Miami also needed the game to remain bowl eligible. Jumping out to a 28-7 halftime lead proved to be the difference for the RedHawks as they could only manage a safety in the 2H. Note that Ohio HC Frank Solich (15th year here) is still 11-3 SU all-time vs. Miami and that includes six straight wins here in Athens. There will be no motivational issues this time for the Bobcats w/ the East Division hanging in the balance. They were the favorite to win the Division coming into the year. 

Ohio started slow this year, including a couple of close losses. But they've seemed to finally hit their stride and played their "best" game of the year two Saturdays ago when they went to Ball State and "upset" the favored Cardinals 34-21. They ran for 300+ yards in the outright win. While 0-4 ATS at Peden Stadium this season, the Bobcats have won 13 of 16 here straight up. Miami is off B2B upsets beating Northern Illinois at home and Kent State on the road. I had 'em in the former. But I can't see three upsets in a row. The win over Kent State was the Redhawks' first on the road. There is a huge edge for Ohio at the QB position w/ senior Nathan Rourke over Miami freshman Brett Gabbert. That alone could be the difference as the home team should win comfortably. 10* Ohio

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Minnesota was able to split the two games Karl-Anthony Towns missed due to suspension (got into a fight w/ Joel Embiid). They won in Washington, 131-109, but then faltered at home against Milwaukee, losing 134-106. Towns is back in the lineup Wednesday night as the T'wolves make the trip to Memphis. While the Grizzlies' season is not exactly off to a "rousing start" (their record is 1-5), they've generally been competitive. This is their third straight home game while Minnesota has had to bounce back & forth between home and the road. Take the points as the T'wolves are overvalued in Towns' return.

The Grizzlies' last two home games were against Phoenix and Houston. They lost by nine to the Suns, a game which they led early. Playing against a desperate Rockets team (that had been humiliated the night prior), they lost by only seven. The only times this team has been blown out this year have been on the road. They're 1-3 at home w/ all three losses coming by single digits. One bright spot has been the play of rookie Ja Morant, who leads the team in points and assists. He had 23 and 6 against Houston Monday. We should see Morant and the rest of the Grizzlies shoot better tonight against a T'wolves team that just gave up 134 points and is not noted for its defense.

It'll be interesting to see how Towns return affects Andrew Wiggins, who was the primary scorer for Minnesota the L2 games. While the T'wolves have opened 3-1 SU on the road, two of the wins were against Washington and Charlotte (both bad) and the other by a single point over Brooklyn. Their only other win was a very favorable spot against Miami, who was playing the second game of a back to back. I thought the T'wolves were somewhat exposed in losses to the Sixers and Bucks, which came by 22 and 28 points respectively. This isn't a team I'd want to LAY points with on the road. 10* Memphis 

analysis soon

8* Over Ball State/Western Michigan (8:00 ET): This is probably a good time to reiterate something I've written previously. The MAC is having a down year. Being that it's November, we're about to get a ton of "weekday MACtion," so for those of you reading me for the first time, it helps to understand my current view of the Conference. Two teams looking to stake their claim as the best in the Western Division meet Tuesday night in Kalamazoo as Western Michigan hosts Ball State. Both teams have been going Under a lot recently (WMU 5 straight times), but they are each capable of putting plenty of points on the board too. Using a strategy that's worked well the last couple weeks, I'm going Over on this particular College Football matchup. 

The strategy I've been using w/ CFB totals is fairly straightforward. If a team has gone Over or Under a number of times in a row, go the other way. I realize there's a certain "fallacy" in that mentality, but I like to stick w/ what works. In this case, Western Michigan has gone Under five straight times. To say the Broncos play much better defense here at home would be a mild understatement. They go from giving up 42.0 PPG on the road to just 12.8 at home! But for our purposes, that's "offset" by the fact their scoring rises at home to 44.6 PPG from 25.3 on the road. WMU is simply a much better football team at home. They are 5-0 SU (4-0-1 ATS) at Waldo Stadium and 0-4 SU/ATS on the road! 

So the Over is really on Ball State to score more than previous visitors to Kalamazoo. I think they are capable. After all, the Cardinals are averaging 33.0 PPG. Unfortunately, the defense could be in trouble. BSU was gashed for over 300 yds rushing two weeks ago by Ohio. Western Michigan ran for almost 400 yards in a 49-10 win over Bowling Green that same day. A big key for the Western Michigan offense in this stretch run is that John Wassink is healthy. The senior QB has missed all of November the L2 years due to injuries. Something to keep in mind w/ the WMU defensive numbers at home is that they haven't exactly faced a strong slate of opponents. Ball State is as good as any team that's visited here in 2019 and should be able to hang. 8* Over Ball State/Western Michigan