Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow.
The Beavers are last in the Pac-12 in scoring at 54.6 points per game and last in offensive efficiency. Their point total goes down to 45.6 a game if you factor just Pac-12 matchups.
They have just a seven man rotation, which is starting to wear thin. None of their top seven players are shooting 50 percent.
Washington State is playing better defense, does a good job of getting to the free throw line, has two excellent key players and is off a confidence-building 89-88 win against Stanford this past Saturday that halted a four-game losing streak.
The Cougars' 6-foot-10 forward Josh Hawkinson is one of only two players in the conference to average a double-double scoring 15.1 points per game and a Pac-12-best 10.8 rebounds. Senior guard Davonte Lacy averages 17.7 points per game and has scored 49 points in his last two games.
 

Look for both offenses to be rusty as the Bulls last played on Friday while the Rockets have been idle since Saturday. That's too long of a layoff for this time of the season when teams are in the rhythm of playing at least every other day. These non-conference opponents are familiar with each other, too, having met last month.
Joakim Noah is in the argument for best defensive player in the league and he's back for Chicago. The Rockets will be missing Dwight Howard, which hurts defensively but also offensively.
The Rockets have gone under in 17 of their last 24 home contests while the under has cashed in 11 of Chicago's last 13 road games versus winning teams.

Fortunate to be in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers remain in the playoff hunt. They have double revenge motivation and catch the Pistons without rest off a big home win against Miami last night.

The Pacers have had a ton of injuries, but point guard George Hill is back and his minutes are increasing. That's a key.

I don't like the Pistons' situation at point guard with Brandon Jennings out for the season. Journeyman D.J. Augustine isn't going to be that effective in a back-to-back situation and he has nothing proven behind him.

Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game. 

Georgia Tech's record is misleading. The Yellow Jackets have lost seven ACC games by seven points or less, including falling to North Carolina State by one point in overtime on a 3-pointer at the buzzer in their last game. In their previous game, they upset Miami on the road winning by 20 points.

Georgia Tech is a proven road commodity covering 12 of its last 16 away matchups. Duke is just 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 ACC games. 

The Trail Blazers are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games and have lost three in a row. This skid is not deceiving. The Trail Blazers are not playing well.
It's too big a leap of faith to believe the Trail Blazers can just turn it on here and bury the Jazz.
Utah is 6-6 in its last 12 road games. The Jazz have covered 10 of their last 14 road contests. They are loose, feel no pressure and are off a confidence-building 110-100 home victory over powerful Golden State. That game was back on Friday so the Jazz have had plenty of time to come down from that high while preparing for this matchup. The Jazz have had good point spread success in Portland covering seven of the past 10 times there.
Portland is down two big men with Robin Lopez and to a much lesser extent Joel Freeland both being out. The Jazz have a physical, tall front line that's helped them post nearly a plus nine rebounding margin per game during the last five games.
LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are Portland's two best players. The team has a weak bench. Aldridge is holding up so far, but the heavy minutes he's been playing have caught up to Lillard as we near All-Star break. The point guard is shooting just 33 percent from the floor during the last 10 games.
This is Portland's first home game since Jan. 24. The Trail Blazers have a bigger game on deck hosting Phoenix Thursday. Utah has been idle since Friday so it's a good spot, too, for the Jazz.  

 

Virginia Tech has gone under in 20 of its last 28 ACC games. Look for that trend to continue here. 

Syracuse is really going to be stressing defense after giving up 93 points to North Carolina in its last game. The Orangemen give up just 56.4 points per game at home. They have always had a top zone defense under Jim Boeheim and outside shooting is not a strength of Virginia Tech. The Hokies averaged 61.4 points on the road and have averaged under 60 points in regulation during their last six overall games. 

The Heat are much better on the road where they have a winning straight-up record and 14-9-1 ATS mark.
Detroit isn't the same without point guard and catalyst Brandon Jennings. The Pistons are 1-4 in their last five games.
The Heat are much improved inside thanks to Hassan Whiteside. Dwayne Wade remains out, but Chris Bosh is playing and Luol Deng could return.
Miami has won nine of the past 10 times when visiting Detroit.

The guard-oriented, finesse Suns are not a good matchup against the physical, rugged Grizzlies, who are playing their finest defense of the season.
Phoenix has lost six in a row to Memphis, including twice this season by an average of 11.5 points although one game did go into overtime.
The Grizzlies have won 10 of their last 11, including six straight. They are giving up only 82.6 points per game during their last six games. In their last two games, the Grizzlies held Oklahoma City to 74 points and Denver to 69.
Phoenix only managed 87 points against Golden State in its last game this past Saturday at home during a 19-point loss. The Warriors rank No. 1 defensively. Memphis is No. 2 defensively.
The Grizzlies are a solid 14-7 on the road with a winning away spread mark. The Suns are just a .500 team versus the spread at home.

Green Bay is coming off just its fifth loss of the season falling at Cleveland State this past Saturday. The Phoenix have won and covered in the game following their previous four defeats. They have a strong historical trend in this direction covering 68 percent of the time during the past 59 instances.
The Phoenix are the superior team and much healthier. They rolled past Wright State, 79-55, in their first meeting on Jan. 5.
The Raiders are a .500 team with injuries. Among the players they will be missing are forward JT Yoho, their leading scorer and rebounder. Also out is senior guard Kendall Griffin, who suffered a concussion in the Raiders' last game, an overtime loss at Oakland this past Wednesday.
Wright State is 1-4 in its last five games, including losses to Cleveland State and Valparaiso in its last two home contests.  

New England has a strong offense and a decent-to-good defense. Seattle has the best defense I've seen since the 1985-86 Bears and a mediocre offense with the exception of a top-four running back, Marshawn Lynch, and a big-play quarterback, Russell Wilson, who rates with Aaron Rodgers (when healthy) and Andrew Luck as the only quarterbacks who can beat you three ways - with their arm, brain and feet.
Defense trumps offense even in today's watered-down, skewed-to-the-offense NFL. Seattle held Peyton Manning's record-shattering Broncos offense to eight points in last year's Super Bowl. New England's offense isn't as potent.
Tom Brady is 37 and still good. But he's not in his prime. He hasn't faced a defense this strong all season. Brady, Bill Belichick and the rest of the Patriots also have to deal with the underinflated football issue, which is a huge distraction. Don't expect the Patriots to be the beneficiary of many lucky referee calls.
The betting line is too high on New England right now based on how well the Patriots looked in the AFC title game against the Colts and how bad the Seahawks played against the Packers. No doubt the Seahawks stunk in that game and were lucky to survive.
That was Seattle's bad, turnover-filled game. I don't see it happening twice in a row. Prior to the matchup against the Packers, the Seahawks had given up an average of eight points during their last SEVEN games - all victories by double-digits.
Brady gets all the recognition, but previous to the Packers game it was Wilson who held the highest all-time quarterback rating in the playoffs. Wilson's record versus playoff teams this year is 7-1. The Seahawks are 20-7-1 (74 percent) ATS during their last 28 games versus opponents with a winning record.
Here are my prop recommendations:
Rob Gronkowski UNDER on receiving yards
Props are tilted to the over because the house knows the public wants to root for scoring and big plays. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. He's going to have a high yardage total attached to him and probably still draw over money so I wouldn't be in a hurry to bet this as it may still go up. The Seahawks, though, are great at stopping tight ends. They have held the opposition's top tight end to an average of 28.1 yards during the last 15 games. The best tight ends they faced during this span were Greg Olsen twice, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten and Julius Thomas. Olsen averaged 37 yards a game. Ertz had 39 yards. Kelce was held to 37 yards. Witten managed just 24 yards and Thomas only 17 yards. Thomas was held to just 27 yards in last year's Super Bowl. The Seahawks are so tough against tight ends for several reasons. K.J. Wright probably is the best coverage linebacker in the NFL. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are the best safety tandem in the NFL if not of all-time. The Seahawks know Gronkowski is the one stud the Patriots have. They are not going to let him beat them.
Shortest Successful Field Goal OVER 24 1/2 yards
Pete Carroll saw first-hand how Mike McCarthy cost Green Bay a victory by taking short field goals and not going for it on fourth down and short. Carroll is a gambler anyways. Bill Belichick also is a gambler. He's also astute enough to not deflate his offense's confidence by settling for a short field goal if a fourth down play deep in Seattle territory is manageable. Belichick knows, too, the Seahawks just couldn't play for a short Brady pass because of power back LeGarrette Blount.
Russell Wilson UNDER rushing yards
Wilson is the best running quarterback in football, a fact not lost on the Patriots. They will have a full-time spy on Wilson in case he breaks containment. Because they have excellent cornerbacks, including shutdown corner Darrelle Revis, the Patriots will be able to play their safeties in the box looking to stop the run first. The Patriots are very familiar, too, with read-option quarterbacks as their AFC East Division was loaded with them - Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill and E.J. Manuel.
Seattle to record the most quarterback sacks
The Patriots figure to throw more and Brady is far less mobile than Wilson. The Seahawks are not a big blitzing team, but after failing to apply pressure on Aaron Rodgers in their last game they could have some surprise new wrinkles to generate heat.

While the Celtics are in rebuild mode again this season having dealt Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, the Heat are fighting for a playoff spot and consider this a crucial game as they begin a four-game road trip.
Miami is a miserable 8-15 at home, but 12-11 on the road. The Heat have covered 59 percent of their away matchups. Boston is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when hosting an opponent with a winning road mark.
The Celtics are five games under .500 at home. Their home attendance may be down for this matchup with the Patriots playing in the Super Bowl later in the day. Miami has covered nine of the last 10 times versus foes with a losing home mark. Boston has lost five of its past six home games, including the last three.
The Heat buried the Celtics, 100-84, at home when they last met on Dec. 21. What's significant about that is the Heat won by 16 despite not having Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside.
Whiteside has emerged has an inside force ranking in the top 10 in rebounding and leading the league in blocked shots since Jan. 11. He's averaging 17.7 rebounds and 15.3 points during his last three games. Boston is a below average rebounding team without a starter taller than 6-foot-9.
Wade is out again, but Bosh and Whiteside will play. So could Luol Deng, who has missed the last two games with a calf injury.

It's easy to see a lot of points being scored by these two teams. But the oddsmaker opened this game much too high considering the circumstances.
Golden State ranks No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 3 in defensive 3-point percentage. The Suns are a guard-oriented perimeter team. This is their first road game since Jan. 13.
The Warriors are trying to keep from losing three in a row for the first time this season. They gave up 110 points to Utah last night in an embarrassing performance. Their intensity level should be sky-high for this home matchup. The Warriors had to play up-tempo in an effort to rally against the Jazz. So their game pace is likely to be slower here especially knowing the Suns like to run.
Phoenix is off a physical 99-93 home win against the Bulls last night so its running capability may be down a notch, too.  
 

No team is giving up fewer points per game this month than Charlotte at 89.8. The Nuggets have been in a scoring slump averaging 93.1 points during their past seven games. Brian Shaw still can't seem to figure out the right rotation. Denver has lost eight of its past nine. 

Al Jefferson is getting better each game since his return from injury. This will be his sixth game back since being out with a groin injury. Jefferson had 22 points when the Hornets beat the Nuggets, 110-82, at home last month. 

The Pistons have yet to win in three games since losing point guard Brandon Jennings for the season. Detroit just has journeyman D.J. Augustin and rookie Spencer Dinwiddie as their only point guards now. 

The Pistons only scored 69 points against the 76ers this past Wednesday in their last game. The Rockets have won four in a row. They beat Boston on the road last night by six points despite James Harden missing 17 of 21 shots from the floor. 

The Rockets have won the last seven in this series. The return of Terrence Jones reduces the loss of Dwight Howard. 

Dwight Howard isn't going to play, but the Celtics have a weak front line and the spread isn't as high as it would be if Howard were playing. 

The Celtics have dropped 10 of their last 15. They just aren't a very good team as they keep getting rid of their best players in an effort to rebuild. They also are banged up in the backcourt as neither Avery Bradley nor Evan Turner is 100 percent. 

This is a difficult schedule spot for Boston. The Celtics just got through playing six consecutive road games that took them to the Pacific Time Zone then Mountain Time Zone and then back to West Coast time. Now they're playing on Eastern time. 

Houston has recovered from its recent losses to Golden State to post three straight victories and covers beating the Suns, Lakers and Mavericks. Getting underrated Terrence Jones back helps reduce the loss of Howard. 

The Rockets have covered 11 of the past 12 times when playing a below .500 opponent and have covered 10 of the last 13 times in Boston.

Since they met in the playoffs last season, the Raptors have remained good while the Nets have sunk to the point where they would miss the postseason if the playoffs began now.
But this might work to Brooklyn's advantage in this matchup because now Toronto has a much bigger game on Saturday when it takes on the Wizards.
This is a circle-the-wagons game for Brooklyn, losers of 11 of its last 13 and six straight at home. The Nets should be highly motivated and rested as this marks just their second game in a week due to Monday's home game postponement against Portland.
The extra rest has given the Nets some extra pep in their step and helped reduce some of the tendinitis in Joe Johnson's knee, which has slowed him down. Deron Williams won't be ready to return to the court yet, but Jarrett Jack has been playing well in his absence.
The Nets do play respectable defense ranking 13th. They've held 28 opponents under 100 points. Brooklyn also has won four of its five home contests versus the Raptors.
The Raptors are playing for the third time in four nights - all in different cities. They need to cut back the minutes of some of their key players here with Washington on deck tomorrow night.  
 

Utah has too much talent, height, balance and depth for UCLA. The Utes clobbered the Bruins by 32 points earlier this month and I can't see the banged-up Bruins regrouping enough, even at home, to keep from losing by less than double-digits.
UCLA is 3-7 in its last 10 games and coming back from an 0-2 trip to Oregon where it lost by a combined 29 points to the Beavers and Ducks.
Ill health is hurting the Bruins. Senior guard Norman Powell has been playing with various aliments and missed practice on Tuesday. Junior center Tony Parker has missed the last two games due to back spasms and may not play. The Bruins have one of the thinnest benches in the Pac-12.
Utah has a physical, intimidating front line aided by 7-footer Jakob Poeltl, who ranks eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding. The Utes have lost only three times with two of those defeats occurring to top-10 teams.
Utah doesn't beat itself and has impressive trends to back it up such as being 39-16-1 ATS in its last 56 Pac-12 games and 45-19-3 ATS in its last 67 games versus an opponent with a winning record.

Colorado is a bad road team, has injuries and USC is playing better than it record shows.
The Buffaloes have yet to win on the road this season in six games. Colorado is without leading rebounder Josh Scott, who did not make the trip to Los Angeles because of back spasms, and third-leading scorer Xavier Johnson is dealing with an ankle injury. Those are two of Colorado's three best players. Johnson has missed the last three games and missed practice on Tuesday.
The Trojans have dropped four in a row, but have only played one bad half during their last five games. Three of their defeats were by a total of 14 points. The Trojans lost to Stanford by two. They were tied with Oregon with under six minutes left and lost by four to Oregon State this past Saturday. Those three teams are a combined 42-16, including 14-7 in the Pac-12.  
So I see a lot of growth and improvement from USC that hasn't shown up yet on the won-lost record. Sources tell me the Trojans have had great practices this week. This is the game where the Trojans get over the hump being home against a crippled Colorado team that has dropped four of its last five.

Both of these teams are in rebuilding mode. The Bucks have made bigger strides this season under Jason Kidd and own the stronger bench, but Orlando has the better talent with Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and an improving rookie point guard in Elfrid Payton.
Even though Miami and Orlando are way down this season, it's still not that easy to do the Florida two-step and beat the Heat and Magic in consecutive road games, which is what the Bucks are trying to do.
The Magic have absolutely owned Milwaukee in Orlando winning the past 17 times! The last time the Bucks won in Orlando was 2004. That sustained kind of history can't be discounted. The Magic usually give the Bucks problems covering in nine of the last 12 meetings.  
Orlando has dropped 12 of its last 14. The Magic players and coach Jacque Vaughn believe their team is very close to turning things around. Orlando has been idle since Monday. Milwaukee is playing its third consecutive road game and is minus Jabari Parker and Larry Sanders in the middle.
The Magic's next three games are against Western Conference foes the Mavericks, Spurs and Thunder. That's likely three more losses. This is the matchup they want. So they should be well prepared and motivated.

Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachievers and surprise teams of the season.
But the Beavers are in a tough spot here - and the oddsmaker knows it with this spread. I want Arizona State going for me here, though, so I will lay this many points.
Oregon State is 12-0 at home, but has a losing straight-up and spread record on the road.
Arizona State is just 10-10, but 9-2 at home. The Sun Devils have played five of their first seven Pac-12 games on the road. Going back to last season, the Sun Devils have won 17 of their past 19 home contests.
This is a key matchup for the Sun Devils and I expect them to be going all out. They were out-hustled by the Beavers when they played in Corvallis 20 days ago losing 55-47. Arizona State played with great defensive intensity in a 79-44 road victory against California two games ago, However, that intensity deserted the Sun Devils in their last game, an embarrassing 89-70 road defeat to Stanford this past Saturday.
Now the Sun Devils are home for three consecutive games. Arizona State's offense has gotten better since meeting Oregon State. The Sun Devils are averaging 75.6 points in their last three games. Arizona State has reduced its turnovers during this span, a key against Oregon State's tenacious defensive backcourt headed by Gary Payton II. The Sun Devils lost Kodi Justice for the season in their loss to Stanford, but have backcourt depth and Oregon State's pressure is lessened when on the road.
Arizona State ranks 52nd in the country in 3-point shooting. The Sun Devils don't figure to miss 17 of 21 shots from 3-point range like they did in the first meeting against Oregon State.  

The Heat have been playing tremendous defense, are home and have double-revenge motivation going here.
Miami has held nine of its last 10 foes under 100 points, including the past five. The Heat are off an impressive and confidence-boosting 96-84 road win against the Bulls two days ago.
While Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games, Milwaukee has dropped three of its last four and is playing for the third time in four days. The Bucks have won both meetings against Miami this season.
The Heat, though, have found a center now - Hassan Whiteside. He scored 14 points, pulled down 13 rebounds and blocked a franchise-record 12 shots against the Bulls. The Heat are healthy with Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng all in the lineup, now fortified with the emerging Whiteside, who has averaged 12.3 points, 8.6 rebounds and four blocks in his last nine games. Sparked by Whiteside, the Hat have held 10 of their last 12 foes below their season scoring average.
The Bucks can't counter this star power and are without their best shot-blocker, suspended Larry Sanders.  

The Clippers have the superstars, but that doesn't mean they are better than the Suns when playing in Phoenix.
Los Angeles has won three in a row. Those victories those were against below .500 teams the Nets, Celtics and Kings.
Phoenix has gone 14-5 since switching its lineup. The Suns were in a position to win the other five games during this span during the final minute. Their last non-competitive loss was back on Dec. 14. Since Dec. 17, the Suns have the third-best record in the NBA behind only the Warriors and Hawks.
The Suns' trio of outstanding guards - Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas - can cause a lot of problems for the depth-shy Clippers. Phoenix has broken the 100-point barrier in all but one of its last 17 games.
The Suns nearly upset the Clippers in LA during their previous meeting blowing a four-point lead with 34 seconds left in a 121-120 overtime loss while missing Thomas.

The Pacers rank No. 3 in scoring defense, are highly motivated to end their seven-game losing streak and have back starting point guard George Hill. 

Orlando is playing more up-tempo. This has resulted in better offensive production but it has been at the cost of defense. The Magic are surrendering an average of 118.5 points during their last four games, all losses. Orlando has yielded triple digits in each of its last eight games. The Knicks, who rank second-to-last in scoring, just put up 113 points on Orlando.  

Orlando has been better on the road. The Magic are 5-14 SU at home, 7-12 ATS.  

Nikola Vucevic is playing well for Orlando, but the Pacers rank 22 spots higher than the Magic in rebounding. I also like Indiana's coaching edge with Frank Vogel. Orlando coach Jacque Vaughn still hasn't solved his team's defensive woes, lack of toughness, nor has he found the right rotation. 

Kansas has a matchup problem against Texas and it's made worse when the Jayhawks play the Longhorns on the road. Kansas has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away matchups and lost 81-69 at Texas last season.
Only Kentucky has a higher shot blocking percentage than Texas. Kansas lost 72-40 to the Wildcats earlier this season. The Longhorns also rank No. 2 in the country in rebounding margin and are third in field-goal percentage defense.
The Longhorns start 6-foot-8 Jonathan Holmes, 6-9 Connor Lammert and 6-9 Cameron Ridley. They also have 6-11 freshman Myles Turner playing more than half the team’s minutes off the bench. He could be the most talented player on Texas' roster.
All of this creates a huge problem for the smaller Jayhawks. Only 12 teams out of 351 have had more shots blocked than Kansas, according to research compiled by KenPom.com. The Jayhawks also rank 263rd in two-pointers, the lowest figure during Bill Self's 12 years at Kansas.
So getting shots rejected and scoring easy buckets is a huge problem for Kansas and it's made far worse in this matchup. Kansas doesn't figure to get easy looks at the basket as the Longhorns rank 28th in percentage of close shots allowed. The Jayhawks aren't going to get many calls either being on the road so they don't figure to be helped at the free throw line.

Denver had started to show signs of life earlier this month, but have lost four in a row. Three of those defeats came to the Mavericks, Warriors and Spurs, though.
Now the Nuggets step way down in class in a circle-the-wagons game for them. Denver has been idle the past two days and gets back sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari. He had missed the last 15 games with a knee injury. Gallinari can take some of the perimeter pressure off Arron Afflalo.
The Nuggets are making just 40.8 percent of their shots from the field during their losing streak and 33 percent from the 3-point line. They also are hitting just 66.3 percent from the free-throw line. Gallinari should help turn around those low marks.
The Celtics just ended a 24-game road losing streak to Western Conference foes by nipping injury-plagued Portland, 90-89, last night on a 3-pointer by Evan Turner with one second left. This puts the Celtics, who dealt away point guard Rajon Rondo and leading scorer Jeff Green, in a letdown spot lacking the offense to stay with Denver.
Not only are the Celtics playing without rest, but they are entering a new time zone and playing in high altitude. They have a bad track record in Denver having lost the past five times there while failing to cover eight of the last 10 times, including losing by 31 points last season at Pepsi Center.
I like the Nuggets even if Kenneth Faried can't play. He missed Thursday's practice with flulike symptoms.

The Rockets lost a lot of their swagger and confidence after suffering recent blowout losses to Golden State. Now they face the hot Suns on the road, a team they do not match up against well at all.

The Suns are going for their seventh consecutive home win. They have not played a bad game in nearly a month going 14-4 during their last 18 games with two of those defeats coming on the road in overtime to Oklahoma City and Memphis. 

Houston is 3-5 in its last eight road contests. The Rockets catch a rested and relaxed Suns squad that has been home for 10 days. Phoenix is averaging 112.5 points in its last four home contests. The Suns rank No. 3 in steals and turnovers forced led by their star guard trio of Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas. 

Houston's defense has slipped and the Rockets have trouble handling the ball ranking second to last in turnovers and number of steals allowed. 

The Nets don't have the offense to hang with the Clippers and are fat and happy after holding off Sacramento last night to open their West Coast trip with a victory. They have a far more winnable road game against the Jazz on Saturday.
The Clippers, unlike the Nets who are without Deron Williams, are healthy and their stars are in their prime. The Clippers rank in the top four in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
Brooklyn is averaging just 92 points during its last 10 games going 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS. The Nets are averaging 11 points fewer per game than the Clippers. The Clippers are giving up less than 99 points per game at home. They have defeated the Nets nine of the last 10 times at Staples Center, including the past three. LA also is 6-3 ATS hosting below .500 Eastern Conference opponents.
The Nets beat the Kings in large part because of a strong performance from center Brook Lopez, who scored 22 points and had six blocks. Lopez figures to struggle, though, matched against DeAndre Jordan, who is having a monster season leading the NBA in rebounding and field goal percentage while ranking second in blocks.   
Another key for the Clippers is focus. They should have it since they last played on Monday and won't play again until Sunday.  

Oregon State is a perfect 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home this season. I see that streak continuing against a young, depth-shy UCLA team that has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups.
UCLA gets much of its scoring from its guards. However, Oregon State has a pair of tremendous defensive guards in Gary Payton II, who ranks second in the nation in steals, and Malcolm Duvivier. The Beavers rank first in the Pac-12 in 3-point defense. Only Arizona has a better defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 than Oregon State, which upset the Wildcats at home on Jan. 11.
The Bruins have just an eight-man rotation and that may be reduced as center Tony Parker is a game-time decision because of back spasms.
UCLA figures to be rusty having been idle since Jan. 14. The Bruins have failed to cover 10 of the last 13 times when facing an opponent with a winning record. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS the last seven times they've hosted a foe with a losing road mark.

Lot of superstars here with James Harden, Dwight Howard and Stephen Curry. So offense is the first thing to come to mind.
However, these two teams rank first and second, respectively, in defensive efficiency. Golden State also is No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage while the Rockets rank second in defensive 3-point percentage.
Yet we have a very high total here. Why? Besides the star power there is the Warriors' 131-106 road win against the Rockets this past Saturday. That's a combined 237 points.
But in the two previous games this season the Rockets and Warriors combined for 185 points and 198 points.
The Rockets are going to play defense with a great deal of intensity after giving up their highest point total in 120 games following that humiliating 25-point home loss to the Warriors. This is what Rockets coach Kevin McHale was quoted as saying after the loss to the Warriors, "We have to be a lot better. We didn't put up any kind of fight. We didn't have the effort against them."
So I'm expecting a big defensive effort from the Rockets, while the Warriors have surrendered an average of only 91 points per game during their last five home games with three of those matchups coming against respectable offenses Denver, Cleveland and Oklahoma City.  

Northern Iowa is giving up too many points here. Indiana State has won and covered in five of its last six games. The Sycamores also lead the Missouri Valley Conference in field goal percentage.

The pace is going to be slow here with points a struggle to come by. That also is a plus for an underdog of this many points. 

This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering 22 of the past 29 times. The Sycamores also have covered in five of their last seven visits to Northern Iowa. 

San Antonio is starting to make its move with Kawhi Leonard back healthy. The Spurs have won five of their last six, including three in a row. Leonard helped the Spurs win their last two games - 110-96 over Portland and 89-69 over Utah. San Antonio has tightened its defense allowing just 91.1 points per game during its last six matchups.
There is some urgency with the Spurs as they are in seventh place in the Western Conference. No coach is better with time to prepare than Gregg Popovich. The Spurs were one of the few teams that did not play on Monday.
Denver is playing for the fourth time in the last five days. The Nuggets played yesterday and were blown out on the road at Golden State, 122-79. They probably will play hard following that humiliation, but they are not playing well with three straight losses and have yet to settle on a rotation. Brian Shaw, in my view, is in way over his head as a head coach giving San Antonio a coaching edge of massive proportions.

Taking to the road after six straight home games might be the best thing for the Raptors especially since they are taking on the Bucks.
Toronto may have been playing over its head during the early stages of the season, but the Raptors aren't as bad as they've been lately losing seven of their last nine. This is a circle-the-wagons type of matchup for the Raptors after losing 95-93 at home on Sunday to New Orleans, who were missing Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday.
The Raptors have owned the Bucks winning the past five in the series. This includes a 124-82 home win against Milwaukee on Nov. 21. That was the Bucks' worst loss of the season.  
The Bucks weren't suffering from jet lag either during that defeat like they could be here having played their last game in London this past Thursday against the hopeless Knicks. Toronto played early on Sunday and is 6-1 ATS the last seven times when playing without rest.
This will be DeMar DeRozan's fourth game back from a torn abductor. So the adjustment period should be over. DeRozan and Kyle Lowery give Toronto the two best players on the court.
Milwaukee's one-time deep bench has been weakened by injuries to Jabari Parker and Kendall Marshall, both out for the season, and by the suspension to center Larry Sanders, its best shot-blocker.  

Detroit and Atlanta have been two play-on teams. But the spot and line value clearly favor the Pistons in this matchup.
The Pistons catch the Hawks in action for the fifth time in seven days and returning home for this holiday matchup after a hugely successful four-game road trip where they defeated the 76ers, Celtics, Raptors and Bulls.
The Hawks are playing outstanding, but so is Detroit. The Pistons have won 11 of their last 13 games going 10-3 ATS. One of those defeats came at home, 106-103, to the Hawks 10 days ago. That was the first time the Pistons lost since getting rid of Josh Smith.
The Pistons have won and covered their last seven road games, posting victories against the Spurs, Mavericks and Raptors during this span.
Detroit can hang tight with Atlanta on the road especially given the Hawks' fatigue and situational disadvantages.    

Andrew Luck doesn't have enough of a supporting cast to pull off a second major road upset. The Patriots are 49-7 (87%) in their last 56 home games. New England also is 17-4 ATS the past 21 times when laying single-digits at Gillette Stadium.
The Ravens were a tough matchup against the Patriots because their strengths matched up against New England's weaknesses. That's not the case here.
The Patriots can be run on and they aren't a great pass blocking team. But the Colts lack talent at running back and don't have any outstanding pass rushers. Indy also doesn't have the Ravens' past success and confidence in facing New England.
The Patriots have played and hosted the Colts three times during the last three years, which has been during the Chuck Pagano/Luck era. New England has won these games by 25, 21 and 22 points this season in a 42-20 victory on Nov. 16. Luck has been picked off eight times in these games.  
Tom Brady is far more accurate than Peyton Manning and Andy Dalton. The Patriots are averaging 40.8 points in their last five meaningful games. They should be good for at least 30 in this one.
New England's defense should be able to find its form against a Colts offense that lacks a ground attack and is fielding a makeshift offensive line that has been through 11 difference combinations with only one lineman starting every game.  

Seattle has the NFL's best defense in nearly 30 years. There is no way the Packers can dent it with Aaron Rodgers on one leg and playing at CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks are 25-2 SU, 19-7-1 ATS the past three years.
The Seahawks are the hottest team in football playing their best ball with seven consecutive victories and covers. Each win has been by 10 or more points.
The Packers' defense is average at best versus the run and doesn't generate much of a pass rush. The Seahawks can beat Green Bay with Marshawn Lynch on the ground and with Russell Wilson's mobility and decision-making. Green Bay has problems with option-type quarterbacks and hasn't been good on the road. They lost 36-16 to the Seahawks, 19-7 to the Lions and 21-13 to the Bills when they played the three toughest defenses on the road. They also scored only 20 points on the road against two-win Tampa Bay, fell by 21 to the Saints in New Orleans and needed a touchdown with three seconds left to win in Miami.
Green Bay has a losing ATS road mark and averages 21 points away from home compared to averaging 39.7 points during the regulation season at Lambeau Field.

Revenge can be overrated in the NBA. Not here. The Wizards were embarrassed 102-80 at home last night by Eastern Conference rival Brooklyn.
Now Washington can do something right away about it as this is a back-to-back home-road series.
The Wizards were ripe for a letdown last night having posted impressive victories this week against the Spurs and Bulls. The Nets entered last night's matchup on a seven-game losing streak with trade rumors swirling around several of their players.
But the Nets played well, particularly Brook Lopez, and the Wizards had their poorest game of the season. Sensing his team lacked the necessary energy - which happens during the course of the long NBA season - Wizards coach Randy Wittman pulled his starters early. Only John Wall logged more than 26 minutes. He played 31 minutes.
I'm expecting a monster effort from the Wizards, who are the more rested team with the superior talent and stronger bench especially with Deron Williams out for the Nets. Washington's key players are in their prime. Brooklyn's top players are past their prime.
Normally the Nets wouldn't be able to match the Wizards' physical play and up-tempo pace. I don't see them doing it twice in a row especially off such a satisfying victory and considering how bad they've been playing with a 2-7 ATS mark in their last nine games. Marcin Gortat is much better than he looked Friday. He should be able to clamp down on the slow-footed Lopez.

There are better defensive players than offensive players in this matchup. This is a down year for senior quarterbacks and it's reflected on each team's roster. There are no big stars and none of the quarterbacks have any former teammates to throw to. This makes their adjustment even more difficult in this type of setting.
The quarterbacks have marginal weapons to work with and are on a short week learning a foreign playbook. The game has averaged less than 35 points during the past five contests, which coincides with the move to Florida.

Maryland has been an overachiever this season. That could catch up to the Terrapins here. Michigan State starts to kick things up as the Big Ten season gets going and the Spartans have gotten healthier.
The Spartans also have revenge from a 68-66 home overtime loss to the Terrapins on Dec. 30 when they shot only 32.3 percent from the field. I'd take Tom Izzo over any coach when it comes to same-season conference revenge. Izzo's record stands 30-11 SU and 28-12-1 ATS the past 41 times in these instances. The Spartans have beaten the spread by an average of more than four points per game during this span.
The Spartans were out-rebounded in the first meeting, which negated them committing eight fewer turnovers than Maryland. The Spartans are the superior rebounding team so that shouldn't happen again.
Michigan State also has proven itself on the road against top competition covering 13 of the past 19 times when taking on a foe with a winning home record. Maryland is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home contests.

A revenge spot for Dallas has the oddsmaker opening this game way too high. The Mavericks sat out Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Rajon Rondo when they met the Nuggets at Pepsi Center two nights ago. The Nuggets won, 114-107.
Those three stars are all slated to be in Dallas' lineup tonight. But it's not a given the Mavericks are going to easily defeat the Nuggets, who are playing their finest ball of the season with five straight victories. The Nuggets are averaging 109.8 points per game on 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during their winning streak.
 Denver has defeated Dallas in six of the last eight meetings. The Nuggets outrebounded the Mavericks by 12 this past Wednesday. Chandler being back makes a difference. He's the third-leading rebounder in the league. But the Nuggets still will be active on the boards thanks to Kenneth Faried, who had 22 points and 14 rebounds versus Dallas two nights ago. Only 11 players average more rebounds per game than Faried.
The Nuggets were short-handed at point guard when they beat Dallas. That won't be the case tonight as they have former Maverick Jameer Nelson to back up Ty Lawson, who played huge on Wednesday with 29 points and 12 assists. Nelson knows the Mavericks well having started the first 23 games for them this season. His knowledge should come in handy.
Dallas has covered just one of its last 12 games versus Western Conference opponents. The Mavericks also have a much better spread record on the road than at home where they have failed to cover nine of the past 12 times.

Enough is enough. Now that LeBron James is back in the lineup and taking on the league's second-worst defense expect the Cavaliers to end their six-game losing streak with a resounding victory over the Lakers.
The Lakers are surrendering 106.8 points per game and have matchup problems all over the court starting with James, who hit 11 of 18 shots from the field while scoring 33 points against the Suns two nights ago. James didn't look rusty at all after missing the previous eight games with a sore knee.
Los Angeles' point guards Ronnie Price and Jeremy Lin are going to have problems handling Kyrie Irving and Cleveland newcomer Timofey Mozgov has hurt the Lakers' in the past with his inside presence.
It's going to be difficult for the Lakers to keep pace with Cleveland's scoring as their two main scorers, Kobe Bryant and Nick Young, are in shooting slumps. Bryant is at the end of a Hall of Fame career. The Lakers play better without him and his atrocious less than 37 percent shooting percentage, ball-hog ways.
The Cavaliers are going to treat this game with a great deal of urgency being under .500 now and having dropped nine of their last 10.

This is a real circle-the-wagons game for Washington, which has dropped four consecutive games after opening 11-0. The Huskies are better than they have shown while Oregon State is not nearly as good as the way it looked this past Sunday in a 58-56 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona.
That was Oregon State's biggest win in 15 years and puts the Beavers in a huge letdown spot. The Beavers' talent level still is way down. Washington, though, certainly won't be looking down at the Beavers desperately needing a victory and knowing Oregon State is capable of knocking off a top Pac-12 team.  
Oregon State has lost to the Huskies during each of its last 11 visits to Seattle. That string should definitely continue here. Washington holds a strong backcourt edge with point guard Nigel Williams. The Huskies have three guards who average in double figures and also hold a strong frontcourt edge behind center Robert Upshaw.
The Beavers lack a true point guard and haven't really faced an opponent with as much depth in the frontcourt as Washington has with its strong shot-blocking and rebounding abilities.

The spot couldn't be better for Denver. The Nuggets have been idle for four days and catch the aging Mavericks off an overtime road victory against Sacramento last night. All of Dallas' starters logged at least 36 minutes against the Kings with four of them seeing at least 38 minutes of action. Big man Tyson Chandler played nearly 44 minutes.  
Now the Mavs have to go into Denver's high altitude from the West Coast where they lose an hour because of the time change and face the Nuggets, who are playing their finest ball with a four-game winning streak. Arron Afflalo has been especially hot for the Nuggets averaging 23 points in his last five games.
These same two teams meet again Friday in Dallas. That's the better spot for the Mavericks. Not here.  

Illinois State wasn't fully focused on New Year's Eve when it hosted Indiana State. The result was a two-point loss as an 11-point favorite.
I see Illinois State highly motivated now two weeks later in a revenge spot and shooting much better than 35.8 percent, which it shot in the first meeting from the floor.
The Redbirds have covered five of their last six road games while the Sycamores are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home contests.

Dallas hasn't lost three games in a row all season and I don't see the Mavericks losing here. The Mavericks are 19-2 in their last 21 regular-season games versus Sacramento.
The Mavericks were rolling along riding a six-game winning streak where they were outscoring their opponents by 13.5 points per game until losing to the hot Pistons last Wednesday and then getting blown out, 120-100, by the Clippers on the road this past Saturday.
Dallas is much superior to Sacramento and won't lack for motivation. The Kings possess talent with DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. But they are immature, which could factor in this matchup as the Kings blew out the Cavaliers at home this past Saturday.  
Sacramento is just 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 home games even with that victory. The Mavericks are 48-20 ATS under Rick Carlisle following a loss and have covered 69 percent of their previous 89 road matchups.
Dallas came from 24 points down to beat Sacramento in the first meeting of the season, 106-98. The Kings were playing better back then. They have yet to reach their early-season promise since naming recycled Tyrone Corbin as their interim coach 13 games ago going 5-8.

This is a bad matchup for the Nets, who are short in the backcourt without injured Deron Williams and don't have the inside talent to contain Dwight Howard.
The Rockets are playing well while Brooklyn is not. Houston has won three in a row - all by 12 points or more. The Rockets rank third in the NBA in defense and are averaging 108.4 points in their last five games. James Harden is leading the league in scoring. The Rockets have improved their rotation since bringing Josh Smith off the bench.
The Nets have dropped five in a row, averaging less than 87 points per game during this span. Brooklyn traditionally struggles versus athletic teams. There is a fatigue issue, too, for the Nets playing for the sixth time in nine days. Houston has won 14 of the last 15 in the series going 11-4 ATS.
The Rockets have covered the past seven times when facing a below .500 team. The Nets are 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 times when meeting a foe with a road winning percentage above .600.

The Broncos rate a level higher than the Colts. Throw in a rested, home-field advantage and I see Denver winning this game by double-digits.
The Colts just have too many weaknesses that the magnificent Andrew Luck can't cover up.
Denver ranks No. 3 in total defense. The Colts are 19th in total defense, giving up 37 more yards per game than Denver despite playing an easier schedule. The Colts won 11 games during the regular season with eight of those victories coming against the Texans, Titans, Jaguars, Redskins and Giants. The combined winning percentage of those teams was 30 percent.
The Colts are not a strong road team just 14-12 SU and ATS during the three-year era of Chuck Pagano and Luck. They are 0-2 in the playoffs and lost on the road this season to the Broncos, Steelers and Cowboys by an average of 15.3 points.
Peyton Manning couldn't match his record 55 touchdowns and 5,477 yards thrown last season. But his 39 touchdown throws this season was one fewer than Luck's league-leading total and he had only 34 fewer passing yards than Luck.
Manning should be much sharper than he has been, too, with an extra week of rest and preparation. Unlike last season, the Broncos have a power ground game to take some of the load off Manning. C.J. Anderson emerged to score eight touchdowns and average 108 yards rushing per game during the last six games.
Denver also has a stronger defense than last season when it reached the Super Bowl. The Colts have gone as far as they can go with a makeshift offensive line, no ground attack and sloppy ball-handling, which has resulted in 17 turnovers during the past seven games.
The Colts aren't playing Andy Dalton here, or any of their AFC South Division patsies. This is a real step-up situation and aside from Luck the Colts don't have the necessary ground game and defense to pass the test.

The weather is going to be cold, but of far more importance to this total going under is the health of each team's quarterback, method of attack and underrated defenses.
Aaron Rodgers' calf is getting all the attention. We know he won't be 100 percent. But Tony Romo also is playing hurt bothered by a bad back and rib injury. Neither quarterback will have any mobility.
Both teams are going to be run-heavy pounding away with DeMarco Murray and Eddie Lacy. Murray is wearing down having had the second-most touches in a season since 2006. He's lost his second gear. Murray is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry during his last 76 carries.
Both offensive lines are very good. But they are not that strong in pass blocking when their quarterbacks can't escape any type of pressure. The coaches know that so expect a lot of conservative play-calling.
The Packers have greatly improved their run defense. They can afford to play their safeties up in the box because of the coverage skills of their cornerbacks.
Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has done a masterful job of coaching up his defense. Dallas doesn't have much talent defensively. But its defensive unit has played with heart and cohesion. The Cowboys defense also isn't worn down because their offense has been able to control time of possession.

Dayton is red-hot winning five in a row. The Flyers are averaging 78 points during this span. Fordham doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are averaging 64.5 points and are ranked 11th in the Atlantic 10 in scoring and also next-to-last in field goal percentage.
The Flyers have covered 11 of the past 15 times when playing a below .500 opponent. Dayton has beaten Fordham the past three times winning by an average of 23 points a game. Dayton is strong again this season while Fordham is down. The Rams are inexperienced, have a weak backcourt and are in a rebuilding situation.  

The Timberwolves have to win sometime don't they? They are mired in a 13-game losing streak minus key players Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin. In addition, veteran point guard Mo Williams turned an ankle in the Wolves' narrow loss to the Suns two nights and may not play.
But unlike the 76ers and Knicks - the other two worst teams in the NBA - the Timberwolves have some exciting young talent and usually can be counted on for a good effort. More than half of their defeats during their losing streak have been by single-digits.
The Bucks may be the most improved team in the Eastern Conference, but they have lost and failed to cover in their last four home games. Milwaukee is down key players, too, especially in the frontcourt where Ersan Ilyasova, Jabari Parker and Larry Sanders are all out.
Minnesota has won four of the last five in the series. Andrew Wiggins is making a strong bid to win Rookie of the Year honors averaging 22.6 points and shooting 51.3 percent from the floor during the last eight games. Anthony Bennett has put together two straight double-double performances and Shabazz Muhammad has scored 18 or more points in eight of his last 13 games.

I'm going to take this many points with Utah after word that Trey Burks is healthy enough to play after missing the last game due to illness. Utah has covered seven of its last eight road games and catch Chicago in a flat spot.
The Bulls are off an impressive home win against the Rockets this past Monday and are at Washington on Friday in a much bigger game.
Chicago is 6-11 ATS at United Center this season and have failed to cover seven of the past nine times when playing foes that have a winning percentage under .400.
The Bulls have won 10 of their past 11 games, but only one of those victories was by more than nine points.
The Jazz nearly beat the Bulls when they met back in late November losing by two points. Only of the last five games between the two teams have been decided by more than four points.

I'll take the points with a good Western Conference team versus a good Eastern Conference team. Memphis ranks sixth defensively and is shooting 46.6 percent from the floor. Atlanta ranks fifth defensively and shoots 46.7 percent from the floor. The Grizzlies are 19-1 the past 20 times when outshooting their opponent.
The spot is good for the Grizzlies catching the Hawks in their first home game back from three straight wins on the West Coast, a journey that didn't finish until this past Monday.

These have been two play-on teams, but I believe the Suns get it done here in a revenge spot and off one of their most impressive victories of the season.
Phoenix has covered nine of its last 10. The Suns rolled past Toronto, 125-109, this past Sunday for their eighth win in their last 10 games. Phoenix is 7-1 on the road versus Eastern Conference foes, winning the last five times.
The Bucks stepped way down in competition beating the Knicks on the road this past Sunday, 95-82. If they didn't win that game they would have losing record since Jabari Parker went down 10 games ago.
The Suns have won during their past three visits to Milwaukee. They lost at home, though, in mid-December to the Bucks on a crazy 3-point shot at the buzzer, 96-94. The Suns didn't have Goran Dragic for that game. Dragic is their best player. He's averaging 19.4 points during the last seven games.  
The Bucks can't match the Suns in the backcourt and aren't a superior rebounding team to take advantage of Phoenix's smallish frontcourt especially with perennial distraction Larry Sanders missing in action.

I give Dallas plenty of credit. But I'm not sold on them. They lack talent on defense and are in a position they haven't been in during their present regime - being asked to cover a touchdown in the playoffs with all the pressure and Super Bowl hype surrounding them.

It's rare to get this many points with a defense as good as Detroit and with as many good skill position players it has.

The key for Dallas is DeMarco Murray. His running sets up Tony Romo and keeps the Cowboys' vulnerable defense off the field. Murray led the NFL in rushing, but he is playing with a surgically repaired hand and had a full workload during the regular season. The Cowboys are playing on short rest this week.

The Lions have the No. 1 run defense giving up less than 70 yards on the ground. Detroit also ranks No. 2 in total defense. Only two teams gave up fewer than the 17.6 points the Lions give up per game. The Lions' secondary is vastly improved.

Matthew Stafford didn't have an outstanding season, but he's a far above average quarterback and has one of the best wide receiving tandems in the NFL with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Johnson is healthy again making him arguably the best wide receiver in the league. When the teams met last year, Johnson burned the Cowboys for 14 catches for 329 yards operating against the same cornerbacks Dallas has now. Detroit won that game.

Reggie Bush gives Stafford an edge runner and dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield.

OK, factor in three points for home field advantage for Pittsburgh. Le'Veon Bell isn't going to play. Now does that make these teams even?

I say no. The points are worth laying because the Steelers are in much better current form and have the superior quarterback. Baltimore's offense is in a slump, its offensive line is banged-up and its defensive backfield highly vulnerable due to injuries that have wiped out five cornerbacks.

Since beating Pittsburgh at home in Week 2, the Ravens have yet to defeat a foe with a winning record going 0-5.

Ben Roethlisberger is having his finest season. The Steelers average 27.2 points, 411.1 yards and 301.6 yards passing per game. The Ravens can't match that especially on the road where they have a history of playing much worse. Roethlisberger lit them up six touchdown passes in a 43-23 win in early November at Heinz Field.

Even without Bell, Roethlisberger has enough weapons to take advantage of the Ravens' battered, vulnerable secondary. Note, too, that  Bell was averaging just 2.7 yards per rush in his last three games worn down by 373 touches. The Steelers have three running backs with fresh legs who will be made to look good by the Ravens' safeties committing to helping out in the passing game rather than moving up in the box.

Joe Flacco has had one good quarter in his last three games. He needs a good ground attack to be effective. That's not likely to happen. The Steelers have gotten healthier on defense while the Ravens will be without left tackle Eugene Monroe.

Baltimore's only decent running back, Justin Forsett, is worn down after a career-high 235 carries. He had a combined 115 rushing attempts the past three seasons. Forsett hasn't broken the 72-yard rushing mark in three of the past four weeks. Pittsburgh has held nine of its last 10 foes to fewer than 100 yards on the ground. 

Much is made of Minnesota's many injuries. But Utah is down to its fourth-string shooting guard with Alec Burks, Rodney Hood and Patrick Christopher all out. The Jazz also lost center Enes Kanter last night in their 98-92 home loss to the Hawks. Kanter suffered an ankle injury leaving Utah thin up front, too, along with the backcourt.
Due to their guard injuries, Trey Burke had to log 39 minutes against the Hawks and his arms obviously were weary because he missed a mind-boggling 19 of 21 shots from the field, including all 11 of his 3-point attempts. The Jazz didn't mail in this game either. They had a strong fourth quarter comeback that fell short.
Now the Jazz have to make the trek to wintery Minnesota less than 24 hours after falling to the Hawks. Utah has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has played on zero rest. The Timberwolves, losers of 10 in a row, may seem like the perfect patsy but they are not. They have covered four in a row, have some young talent and rank seventh in fast break points. They will run on the tired Jazz, who are down a key rebounder with Kanter sidelined.
Minnesota also has covered in four of its last five versus Utah and have revenge for a 100-94 loss to the Jazz in Salt Lake City this past Tuesday.

The Grizzlies are back on track following their 95-87 home win against the Spurs this past Tuesday. Memphis doesn't want to give that great win right back with a loss against the lowly Lakers.

Memphis ranks fifth defensively giving up 12 points fewer per game than the Lakers, who rank last defensively. The Grizzlies remain without Zach Randolph, but still dominate inside against the Lakers with Marc Gasol and at point guard with Mike Conley, who quietly is having an outstanding season. Conley has taken advantage of the Lakers' weakness at point guard to average 22 points and shoot 56.4 percent from the field in the last three games versus LA.

The Grizzlies have defeated the Lakers in eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past four. They beat the Lakers on Nov. 26 by six points when the Lakers played pretty well. I don't think the Lakers will be that sharp here coming off a 111-103 road win at Denver. Kobe Bryant may have had his best game of the season in that victory. Bryant, though, is shooting 37.5 percent from the floor.

The line is cheap here. Oklahoma State freshman quarterback Mason Rudolph is making just his third start. He'll be facing a defense that has three All-Americans and creates tremendous pressure recording 49 sacks, 27 forced turnovers and nine defensive/return touchdowns.

The Huskies should easily control the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma State's offensive line isn't very good surrendering a Big-12 high 37 sacks. The Cowboys also will be without Tyreek Hill, who averaged 159 all-purpose yards per game and had the huge 92-yard punt return for a touchdown that set up the overtime victory against Oklahoma on Dec. 6. That victory allowed the Cowboys to reach this bowl game. Hill was kicked off the team because of being arrested and charged with punching and choking his pregnant girlfriend.

Prior to the win against Oklahoma, their regular-season finale, the Cowboys had lost five in a row all by 21 or more points. The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. I want no part of them especially with Hill's violent action against his girlfriend tarnishing the Oklahoma victory taking away much of that good feeling.

Without Hill, Rudolph's main ground threat is pedestrian Desmond Roland, who averages just 3.8 yards per carry and didn't rush for 100 yards in a game all season.

Washington enters the matchup in good form having defeated Oregon State, 37-13, and Washington State, 31-13. Huskies quarterback Cyler Miles has a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has passed for four touchdowns during the last two games. 

Junior Shaq Thompson is the best two-way football player in the country, starring at both running back and linebacker. He's a potential first-round pick if he declares for the draft. He's a huge player for Huskies. He averages 7.5 yards rushing and led the nation with four defensive touchdowns and four fumble recoveries.

Ohio State has a super offensive line and a very balanced attack - an excellent running back in Ezekiel Elliott and very good receivers. Ohio State rushed for 34 touchdowns and threw for 39 other touchdowns. The Buckeyes put up 49 points at Michigan State and 59 against Wisconsin at a neutral site. That's strong stuff.

Yet some doubt the Buckeyes' offense because they are using third-string quarterback Cardale Jones. I'm not one of those. Jones was a top high school recruit, who could have been an immediate starter for a lot of schools not as strong as Ohio State. He did very well against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game in his debut going 12-for-17 for 273 yards with three touchdown passes. Jones is 6-foot-5, 250 pounds and is a load. The Alabama coaching staff just has film on Jones from the Wisconsin game. Jones will be helped, too, by having had 15 extra practice sessions leading up to the game.

Nick Saban doesn't have his usual dominant defense having lost five studs to the NFL after last season. Auburn scored 44 points and gained 630 yards on the Crimson Tide at Alabama. Five other teams threw well against the Crimson Tide, which ranked 59th in pass defense.

I do like Alabama's offense, though, which has become more wide open under aggressive offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. The Crimson Tide averaged more than 37 points a game and had 32 touchdowns rushing and 30 through the air. Senior quarterback Blake Sims is mobile and passed for a school-record 3,250 yards accounting for 32 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. He was sacked only 13 times.

Sims has outstanding weapons to work with including one of the best running back tandems in the country in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is expected to be a high NFL draft choice.

So offense - not defense - is the way to go in this matchup especially with a fast track inside a dome.

I want the SEC team going for me against the ACC team. I don't trust Louisville's quarterback situation and I like Georgia on both sides of the ball.

The Bulldogs averaged 41.7 points, best in the SEC. Nick Chubb is an elite runner rushing for 1,281 yards and scoring 14 touchdowns, 12 of which came on the ground. He ran for at least 100 yards and a touchdown during each of his last seven starts. Todd Gurley would have been hard-pressed to do better.

Georgia has a reliable quarterback in Hutson Mason, who has a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Louisville could be down to third-string quarterback Kyle Bolin, who stepped in when second-string quarterback Reggie Bonnafon suffered a knee injury in the regular-season finale versus Kentucky. Bolin played well, but there is quite a difference from Kentucky to Georgia. The Bulldogs have the No. 2 pass defense in the country. They shut out Missouri and Troy while holding Auburn to seven points. Auburn averaged 35.8 points even being held to a touchdown by Georgia.

West Virginia has an underrated defense. Texas A&M simply has a terrible defense. The Mountaineers held Baylor to a season-low 318 yards. The Aggies have given up an average of 553 yards in their last three games and been outrushed by 531 yards during their past two games. No SEC team surrendered more yards than the Aggies.

Texas A&M has only beaten one opponent with a winning record and is in bad form losing five of its last seven. The Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and already have made a change at defensive coordinator.

Yet the line has come down because West Virginia is going with a backup quarterback, Skyler Howard. The Mountaineers have a balanced attack with a good running back and several outstanding receivers. Howard is much improved and received some needed experience completing 57.1 percent for 483 yards and five touchdowns.

Howard threw three touchdowns in his first start in the Mountaineers' last game, a 37-24 road win against Iowa State. Howard also gives the Mountaineers a running threat at quarterback something they didn't have before with Clint Trickett. West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen is a top offensive mind.

The Aggies are an SEC team, which must be respected, but they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at neutral sites and West Virginia played an extremely difficult schedule so the Mountaineers are battled tested.

This is my NFC Game of the Year and here is why:

The Panthers are playing their best ball down the stretch inspired by Cam Newton, who is back running and not just sitting in the pocket, and getting much improved play from both their offensive and defensive lines. Their secondary also has gotten faster with a switch to younger defensive backs.

Carolina is giving up an average of 13.3 points during its last three games in beating the Saints, Buccaneers and Browns.

Carolina also has a strong history under Ron Rivera in December going 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS. New England is the only team with more December victories during this span.

The Falcons aren't nearly good enough to lay this many points in a winner-take-all division setting. They can't rush the passer and their secondary took a hit last week with the loss of safety William Moore. The Panthers can key on Matt Ryan, who is playing behind a makeshift offensive line and lacking a ground attack made worse with Steven Jackson not likely to play.

The Jets played their Super Bowl for Rex Ryan last Sunday and nearly upset the Patriots. I don't see New York having the motivation in this meaningless matchup to put forth a second consecutive strong effort especially visiting sunny South Florida. Without a strong game, the Jets can't stay close on the scoreboard.

Geno Smith is just a killer for the Jets with his many mistakes and turnovers. Smith isn't going to have Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold and probably is going to be missing Percy Harvin, too.

The Dolphins have a strong defense. They came very close to making the playoffs. Miami is 8-7. If not for late blown leads against three playoff teams - Packers, Lions and Broncos - Miami would be sitting at 11-4 and this line would be much higher.

Ryan Tannehill is having his strongest season. The Jets give up more than 25 points a game with a battered, overmatched secondary. There's a class difference here. The Dolphins are unified with Joe Philbin returning as head coach, being at home and catching the Jets at an opportune time.

(Editor's note: Long-time pro Stephen Nover is heating up as he goes for his 19th winning NFL season in the last 21 years. Stephen is 7-1 the past two weeks on his NFL premium and free plays and has his NFC Game of the Year going Sunday.)

The Eagles are flawed, but they still are the better team here. The key is will they play hard? Knowing Chip Kelly the Eagles will. Kelly is taking this game serious. He could have given Matt Barkley a chance, but he won't. 

The Eagles have the stronger offensive and defensive lines and a far better running attack than the Giants. The Giants have trouble protecting Eli Manning and the Eagles rank second in sacks with 49, one behind Buffalo. The Eagles also hold a special teams edge. 

The Eagles blanked the Giants, 27-0, in the team's first meeting. They have won and covered in six of their last seven visits against the Giants. 

Dallas doesn't need this game and figures to be resting banged-up Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray for much of the game. Without those two Dallas can't play ball control and protect their vulnerable defense, which has a talent deficiency.

The Redskins have the skill position talent at receiver and running back to take advantage. Robert Griffin III and the rest of the Redskins received a huge jolt of confidence with last week's upset win against the Eagles.

The Redskins will be motivated for this long-standing division rivalry matchup. They have covered the past four years hosting Dallas. Jobs are at stake for many of the Redskins. They should be hard here while the Cowboys are in a letdown spot having ended their four-year playoff drought by burying the Colts last week.

Houston isn't strong enough to lay double-digits with fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum, who is 1-8 as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

The Jaguars have shown a respectable defense and a no-quit attitude under defensive-minded Gus Bradley. Only four teams have more sacks than Jacksonville.

Sure Houston is still alive for a playoff spot - albeit a long shot - but Jacksonville also has motivation. This is a division rivalry made more intense by many of the Jacksonville players close ties to Texas. The Jaguars have revenge and extra preparation and rest time having played last Thursday. They have covered in three of the last four meetings with the Texans.

The Jaguars are extremely young on offense starting six rookies, including quarterback Blake Bortles. But these young players have some experience now and fresher legs. Bortles has cut back on his dreadful number of turnovers getting picked off just twice in the last four games on 140 attempts with one coming on a desperate fourth down pass against Baltimore.

Huge letdown spot for UNLV after it scored probably its biggest win in 10 years upsetting third-ranked Arizona, 71-67, this past Tuesday. The Rebels aren't that good and neither is their Mountain West Conference. Throw in the holiday season, which could reduce attendance and the level of intensity, and you have a very live 'dog here.

Southern Utah has all of its starters back, has played some decent competition to become battled-tested and will be treating this game much more serious and with far more motivation than the Rebels. The Thunderbirds have covered in nine of their last 13 road games.

UNLV is not well-coached and you have to question its maturity level with five freshmen drawing consistent minutes. The Rebels have a far bigger game on deck when it opens Mountain West Conference play on Wednesday against Wyoming on the road. I don't see a focused effort from the Rebels to cover this big of a number. 

I like these two offenses much more than the defenses. Nebraska is used to playing run-oriented Big Ten teams. USC is a different animal. The Trojans put up 49 points on Notre Dame in their last game.

Cody Kessler is a standout quarterback for USC, who has thrived under Steve Sarkisian. He completed 71 percent for 3,505 yards with a 36-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Javorius Allen has rushed for 100 yards eight times and the Trojans have five good wide receivers led by the splendid Nelson Agholor, who caught 97 passes for 1,223 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Nebraska is going to get its share of points. The Cornhuskers average 37.4 points per game and 446.3 yards. They have Ameer Abdullah, one of the best running backs in the country, and quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., who has put up excellent running and passing numbers. 

Flat out wrong favorite here. South Carolina has the stronger pedigree, is the better team and plays in the toughest conference in the country.

The Gamecocks have won their bowl games during each of the past three seasons, including defeating Wisconsin by 10 points last year.

Miami has been to just one bowl game during Al Golden's three previous seasons - and that was a 25-point loss to Louisville last season. The Hurricanes have lost during their past four bowl appearances.

The Hurricanes are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. They have lost nine of their last 17 lined games by double-digits and finished the regular season on a three-game losing streak averaging less than 21 points a game during this span.

South Carolina certainly has had a disappointing year. No getting around that, but the Gamecocks are more dangerous than their record indicates having lost four games by seven points or fewer while playing in the toughest conference in the land. South Carolina has the better coach with Steve Spurrier and its offense has more pop with dangerous wideout Pharoh Cooper.

The Hurricanes' offense has gone downhill and they continue to commit too many penalties.

No team has been hotter than Atlanta, which has won 14 of 15. The Hawks have proven they can beat elite competition, too, reeling off five straight victories with those wins coming against the Bulls, Cavaliers, Rockets, Mavericks and Clippers. The first four of those victories were achieved on the road.

Atlanta rallied from a 13-point deficit to knock off the Clippers on Tuesday in its last game. I see a letdown for the Hawks as they finally step down in class. The two teams meet again tomorrow night in Milwaukee so it's not a kill spot either for the Hawks.

The Bucks should be fired-up after holding a 50-minute players-only meeting following their last game, a 108-101 home loss to the Hornets. Atlanta has been playing outstanding defense, but the Bucks have reached triple digits in 12 of their past 14 games. They are shooting 49.9 percent from the field this month, best in the NBA.

The Bucks have covered 12 of 17 road games this season and have the highest scoring bench in the league. That puts them in line for at least a back-door cover if the Hawks play better than expected.

Golden State is the better team and the set up is right for the Warriors.

The Warriors led by 29 points when they rolled past the Clippers, 121-104, in their first meeting in early November. They are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 Western Conference matchups.

Golden State is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and also has a top-five offense. No other NBA team is in the top-five offensively and defensively.

The Warriors have David Lee back and will be highly motivated following a shocking loss in its last game this past Tuesday against the Lakers. Note that game was played at Staples Center where this matchup is. So the Warriors are rested. The Clippers aren't, though. This is their third game in four days. They've been at San Antonio and had to fly in from Atlanta where they played two nights ago. This makes their third time zone in four nights.

Golden State has won and covered 75 percent of the time this season in the 12 games it has played against teams with a winning record. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS the last six times when they faced an opponent with an above .600 winning percentage.

Contrast this with the Clippers who are 4-7 SU, 2-9 ATS when facing foes above .500 and are 1-6 ATS when taking on foes with an above .600 winning percentage. The Clippers also have failed to cover 13 of their last 18 home games. 

This is gut check time for both of these teams as they battle in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Neither team is shooting well. Defense figures to be at a premium so taking the points is the way to go.

Wichita State is lucky to have survived after nipping Hawaii, 80-79, in overtime two days ago. The Shockers have had three of their seven games this month decided by one point. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

The Shockers are playing many freshmen. They will be without backup guard Evan Wessel, who was part of the rotation averaging more than 19 minutes per game. He has an ankle injury. Ron Baker, Wichita State's top scorer, has been cold in the tournament missing 20 of 29 shots from the floor.

George Washington also is having problems making shots. But the Colonials are very strong defensively ranking 26th in scoring defense. They are holding foes to 39.4 shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range. I see them giving Wichita State problems with their physical defense having the ability to effectively constantly change up from man-to-man to zone.

Rice is in bad form getting blown out by Marshall 41-14 and by Louisiana Tech 76-31 in two of its last three games. The Owls gave up the last 41 points in their loss to Louisiana Tech, which was their last game. That's not a good way to enter a bowl game.

Rice also was blown out by Mississippi State, 44-7, in its bowl game last season.

Fresno State has played well for the most part since an 0-3 start. The Bulldogs have much to prove with a poor bowl history and being the only under .500 team playing in a bowl game. The Bulldogs played the stronger schedule, have a talent edge and I see them motivated and getting the job done.

It's a plus for the Bulldogs to have played at Aloha Stadium - with the many distractions of being in the islands - during the last two seasons.

I see both teams scoring well over 30 points in this matchup.

Rice gives up more than 30 points and ranks 92nd in pass defense. Who can forget the Owls surrendering a staggering 76 points to Louisiana Tech in their last game. That has to totally destroy any confidence.

Fresno State always is strong at the skill spots and that holds true again this season with running back Marteze Waller and wide receiver Josh Harper. The Bulldogs, however, give up more than 36 points a game rank 111th in total defense. They have been at their worst outside of the Mountain West Conference giving up 52, 59 and 55 points when they played USC, Utah and Nebraska.

Rice has put up 31 or more points in five of its last seven games.

Look for defense to rule here. Memphis gives up just 17.1 points per game, which is fifth-best in the nation. The Tigers have a strong defensive front seven and are opportunistic with 27 takeaways. 
The Tigers' defense really came on holding their six opponents to an average of 13.3 points per game. The under has cashed 19 of the past 27 times Memphis has played an opponent with a winning record.  
BYU lost its star quarterback, Taysom Hill and best running back Jamaal Williams to injuries. Hill's replacement, Christian Stewart, is a pocket passer. Stewart picked up his play late in the season, but note that the Cougars finished the regular season taking on three weak defensive teams - UNLV, Savannah State and Cal. They are stepping way up in class defensively here.
Under Bronco Mendenhall, the Cougars also are worthy of respect defensively. Mendenhall is particularly dangerous with ample time to prepare. The under has cashed in six of BYU's last eight bowl games under Mendenhall. 
The Cougars have picked things up defensively, too, holding their last four opponents to an average of less than 17 points per game.  

Bruce Arians has done a masterful job coaching the Cardinals up this season, but he's drawing dead here because of his quarterback situation.

Seattle has gotten healthy on defense. The result is the Seahawks' dominant defense of last season is back as good as ever. The Cardinals can't compete against it down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, who doesn't have the ability.

Since Carson Palmer went down, the Cardinals have only managed four touchdowns in five games. They lack a ground game to take the pressure off Lindley and Larry Fitzgerald hasn't been 100 percent.

Arizona would be hard-pressed to put up points against a mediocre defense let alone the top one in the league right now. Seattle has allowed just 27 points during the last four weeks.

Seattle is peaking, playing its best ball winning and covering its last four games, including defeating these same Cardinals, 19-3, when Arizona had Drew Stanton at quarterback. Stanton is bad. But Lindley is even worse.

Seattle is 18-6-1 ATS versus foes with a winning record.

Russell Wilson has the mobility to escape Arizona's pass rush and make big plays with his feet and arm. He's also very good at not turning the ball over. He's accounted for six touchdowns in the last four games with no interceptions. The Seahawks can wear Arizona's defense down running Marshawn Lynch while effectively burning the Cardinals' secondary with play-action passes.

Oakland has won its last two home games in convincing style against the Chiefs and 49ers. Those teams are at least as good if not better than Buffalo. So the Raiders are capable - when home like they are here.

The Bills are a feisty group that must produce an "A" effort such as they did last week in upsetting Green Bay to do well. But this is a brutal spot for Buffalo. The Bills are not a good road team and are traveling cross-country after one of their most satisfying victories of the season. It's the first time this season the Bills are road chalk and they are laying a touchdown with a bad quarterback.

Kyle Orton is an over-the-hill game manager who does have the savvy to rely on his defense rather than take chances and attack defenses. He's not the type of quarterback who can cover margins like this, though, especially on the road.

The Raiders can keep Buffalo's fierce pass rushers off Derek Carr because they have a talented running back they have underutilized up to this point - Latavius Murray. He's fresh and ready.

The Rams defense has come on in the second half to become arguably the most dominant defense in the NFL. In their last 5 games, the Rams have allowed just 46 points on two touchdown throws with eight interceptions and four forced fumbles. They have recorded 14 sacks in their last three games.

The Giants can't run the ball with Rashad Jennings hurting and their makeshift offensive line can't pass block well enough to make Eli Manning effective.

The Rams are very limited on offense with journeyman backup Shaun Hill at quarterback and a below average crop of wide receivers.

The Ravens and Joe Flacco aren't strong enough to lay this many points on the road against this quality of an opponent.

The Texans can rush the passer with J.J. Watt and run the ball with Arian Foster. Flacco is at his worst on the road and when being pressured. The Ravens are minus suspended run-stuff nose guard Haloti Ngata. They can't commit to stopping the run because their secondary is decimated with injuries and is a major vulnerable area.

The line is this high because the Texans are down to fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum. The Texans have weapons, though, with Andre Johnson back from a concussion. It would just be an added plus if DeAndre Hopkins can play. Keenum has experience with the Texans. He also has the multi-talented Foster to rely on.

Jimmy Clausen doesn't come close to matching Jay Cutler's talent level, but the Bears are going to play very hard in this division matchup because of the quarterback change. Clausen does have weapons - Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett - and will be coached up by Marc Trestman, whose strength is coaching quarterbacks. Clausen isn't a scared rookie, but a veteran. He had an excellent preseason completing 64.9 percent for 7.6 YPA and two touchdowns. I believe he'll do fine for this particular game at home and with a rare motivated effort from the  Bears.

The Lions may let down having clinched a playoff berth yesterday following the Eagles' loss to the Redskins and knowing how dysfunctional the Bears have been, a team they destroyed on Thanksgiving by 17 points.

Detroit is just 4-16 ATS as road chalk and has covered only five of 16 times on grass. The Lions also have a horrible track record in December covering just three of their past 15 games in that month.

Don't be fooled by the Hawks' 18-7 record. Atlanta has played the weakest schedule of any team. The Hawks have some talented players, but they aren't that good and point guard Jeff Teague may be out. Atlanta is 2-18 in its last 20 road games versus Western Conference opponents.

Houston is holding foes to 93 points a game at home. The Rockets have the No. 2 defense in the league and have won 19 straight games at home versus Eastern Conference foes.

The Rockets' eight-game winning streak was snapped in a 99-90 home loss to New Orleans. The Rockets had no legs in that game after winning in high altitude the night before in overtime against Denver. It has been more than a year since the Rockets have lost back-to-back home games.   

I don't see any way the Jazz can win three straight road games. This is Utah's fifth game in seven days - all road contests and their second matchup with in 48 hours.

The Hornets have a poor record, but that's in part because they've played a very difficult schedule. They should start to get better as they are healthier and some of their players such as Gerald Henderson are playing better.

The Hornets hold a strong inside-outside edge on Utah with Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker.

First off, the weather should cooperate in Boise with this being an afternoon game rather than a night matchup. The afternoon forecast is for temperatures in the 40's with a slight wind and small chance of rain increasing in the night.

Look for plenty of offense here. Western Michigan has an excellent quarterback, Zach Terrell, and running back, Jarvion Franklin. He was one of the top freshmen runners in the country rushing 1,525 yards and 24 touchdowns. Terrell threw for 3,146 yards and 23 touchdowns and had the third-best yards per pass mark at 9.53 in the country. 

Terrell should be able to take advantage of the Falcons secondary, which gave up the second-most passing yards per game in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force has to not only deal with Franklin on the ground, but Western Michigan has two outstanding wide receivers, Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman. Only three receivers in the country had more touchdowns than Davis, who scored at least one touchdown in all but one of his team's 12 games.

Air Force is not without majors weapons, including four good running backs and option quarterback Kale Pearson, who went he did throw was effective with a 14-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 162.5 Western Michigan allows 229.3 passing yards per game.

The Falcons also have one of the top kickers in the country, Will Conant. He was perfect on extra points and made 18 of 20 field goals.  

Orlando is a much improved team. The Magic went 23-59 last season. Orlando is 10-18 this season and has played the most road games in the league at 19.

Now the Magic are in a stop-the-pain game after consecutive road losses to Toronto and Boston. Sometimes returning home after a road swing can be tricky, especially coming home to sunny central Florida. But this was just a short tip that ended two nights ago so I'm expecting a focused Orlando effort.

Utah is in a rare letdown spot after winning for just the second times in its last 14 games defeating Miami on the road, 105-87, this past Wednesday. The Jazz sank an insane 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range in the victory.

This marks the Jazz's fourth road game in a row. It's their third road game in four days and fourth matchup in six days. Utah is 3-10 away from Salt Lake City. The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home contests versus opponents with a losing road record.

Orlando defeated the Jazz in Salt Lake City, 98-93, two weeks ago despite missing their best inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Orlando is a much better team with Vucevic back in the lineup. The 7-footer is shooting 51 percent from the floor. Utah ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage.  

Golden State has won 16 of its last 17 and are eager to start a new winning streak after losing on Tuesday at Memphis. The Warriors are 8-1 at home, winning their last six there.

The Warriors have no flaws. They rank No. 1 defensively and are sixth offensively.

Oklahoma City is not all the way back despite going 7-1 since Kevin Durant returned. The Thunder have played an extremely easy schedule since Durant has been back facing opponents who were a combined 50 games under .too. They also caught the Cavaliers without LeBron James, Kings without DeMarcus Cousins and Suns without Goran Dragic.

In a few weeks, the Thunder may very well be as good as Golden State, but right now the Warriors are better even without Andrew Bogut especially when factoring in home-court.

The Bucks have the best point spread mark in the NBA at 17-8. That includes a 9-5 ATS road record. They have a strong ATS mark versus Western Conference foes covering 11 of the past 15 times and have gotten the money in five of their last six meetings against Portland.

Milwaukee has won in two of its last three visits to Portland, losing last season in overtime.

The Bucks did lose their prize rookie, Jabari Parker, for the season in their road win against the Suns two nights ago. That put a damper on that victory, but I feel the Bucks will come out fired up in their first game without Parker. 

This is a sandwich spot for Portland, which knocked off San Antonio at home two nights ago and plays at San Antonio on Friday. The Spurs are a far more important opponent to Portland than non-conference foe Milwaukee.

The Trail Blazers are scoring 4.4 points less per game than last season. However, their defense has improved. Yet the Trail Blazers also suffered a key injury in their last game when center Robin Lopez broke his hand. Lopez had spearheaded Portland's defense. He was averaging 9.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots.

Now the Trail Blazers have to use over-the-hill, Chris Kaman at center, weakening their interior defense. The Bucks have scored 50 or more points in the paint during three of their last four games.

These are two of the stingiest defenses in the country, but San Diego State is the better team.

Cincinnati has yet to play a ranked opponent. The Bearcats are inexperienced and struggling to find their offense. San Diego State ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense. 

The Aztecs are tournament tested having reached the Sweet 16 last season. They have had a week to prepare for this matchup and their offense is better versus man-to-man defenses, which Cincinnati plays.

Cincinnati is a tough venue, but San Diego State is 42-18-2 ATS in its last 62 road contests.

Arizona State beat Marquette last season and Marquette is way down this season. The Golden Eagles are weak defensively, have been outrebounded by nearly nine boards a game and are down to just eight scholarship players after the departure of two bench players.

Marquette also is going to be rusty having last played 10 days ago.

Arizona State averages five more points per game than Marquette. The Sun Devils also have been strengthened with the addition of UNLV transfer Savon Goodman, who is  now eligible.

The Sun Devils have outrebounded eight of their nine opponents and made 29 more 3-pointes than their foes. Catching points with them is just a bonus. 

Orlando is much improved this season with some underrated young players. They also have Nikola Vucevic back and are in a good situational spot.

The Raptors had to rally from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to beat New York on Sunday in overtime on the road. The Raptors are just 5-4 in their last nine games after a fast start. They lack a consistent go-to guy with DeMar DeRozan out.

Orlando is at its best on the road. The Magic have covered 12 of their last 16 away matchups. This is a revenge spot for them after the Raptors came from 11 down to nip them on the road, 104-100, last month. 

The Raptors host the Nets in their next game in two nights. The Nets eliminated them in a bitter seven-game playoff series last season.

Elon is guard-oriented and plays good perimeter defense. The Phoenix are feisty and can hang inside this number against Duke. This is their last opportunity to probably face a Top 25 team during the regular season.

Duke is rusty and has a huge look-ahead game on deck. The Blue Devils last played on Dec. 3 when they knocked off then second-ranked Wisconsin. Duke plays defending national champion Connecticut on Thursday.

Elon is No. 1 in the underrated Colonial Athletic in 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Phoenix nearly beat Missouri on the road and lost in overtime at Northwestern. So they have experience against major college programs.

Elon rallied from 19 down at Missouri this past Thursday to pull within one point with less than 30 seconds to play before falling 78-73. The Phoenix outscored the Tigers, 46-32, in the second half proving they won't quit. I like to have a big 'dog like that going for me. 

The Spurs have had one full day to stew after losing at home to the Lakers this past Friday. The words "pitiful" should be seared on the Spurs' minds. That's what Gregg Popovich called their performance versus the Lakers.

I'm expecting the Spurs to play at a high intensity level against the 10-13, inconsistent Nuggets.

San Antonio is 16-6 ATS when playing on one day's rest. That mark isn't a fluke since Popovich is the best coach in the business and the most dangerous with time to prepare.

The Spurs can't afford not to be sharp with upcoming games against Portland twice, Memphis, Dallas, Clippers and Thunder.

Denver isn't playing well losing five of its last six. This includes a 108-96 road loss to Houston last night.

The Spurs match up well to the Nuggets particularly inside with Tim Duncan. The Spurs swept the Nuggets last season winning by an average of nearly 20 points a game. They have defeated Denver in 12 of the past 16 meetings. Duncan has dominated Denver averaging 22.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.2 blocks during the past six meetings.

Brian Hoyer has not been playing well, but I can't envision a battle-tested veteran Bengals secondary that has permitted just 14 touchdown passes all year getting beat by untested rookie Johnny Manziel making his first start. It's going to be difficult for the Browns to retain their full concentration this week because of all the publicity Manziel's first start brings.

The Browns play hard and their defense is better than their statistics, but they are not in the Bengals' class. Only once all season has Cleveland outgained a foe at home.

There is zero chance of defensive-minded Marvin Lewis taking the Browns lightly after Cleveland embarrassed Cincinnati, 24-3, during the Thursday night Week 10 matchup. The Bengals haven't seen Manziel, but they have seen the Browns' offense now. 

Andy Dalton has been sacked just 16 times. Only Peyton Manning has been sacked fewer times among starting quarterback. Dalton has his full complement of weapons back, including a now healthy A.J. Green, who has 33 receptions and three 100-yard games during his past four games with three touchdowns.  

Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season and Green Bay's offense looked great again on Monday against Atlanta. But that was at home against an extremely weak defense.

Now the Packers are traveling on a short week to take on Buffalo, which has one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Packers are not familiar with the Bills' defense having last faced them in 2010. They will have one less practice and preparation day, too.

The Bills lead the league in sacks with 48. They rank in the top five defensively in total yards, scoring points and passing yards. As good as the Packers are, they are not going to have their way against this strong of a defense on the road.

If you discount the Packers' road game against the Bears, Green Bay is averaging 19.4 points in five away matchups.

The Packers' defense isn't as bad as they looked on Monday night. Their run defense is much improved, the linebacker play is better with A.J. Hawk playing less and the secondary remains the deepest in football.

The Bills are a ball-control, grind-it-out type of team due to the lack of playmaking skills of Kyle Orton. Going by percentage of time on the field, Orton has been sacked more than any other quarterback.

Cold weather, snow and wind also could become part of the equation any time you play a game in Buffalo this late in the year.

The 76ers should come in to this home matchup motivated after an embarrassing 88-70 road loss to the Nets last night. The 76ers have better talent than their record shows.

This is a tricky spot for Memphis. It's the Grizzlies' lone road game during a six-game span and they just outlasted Charlotte, 113-107, in double overtime last night. All but one of Memphis' starters played big minutes. The Grizzlies do not have a strong bench. 

The Grizzlies have far more important games on deck - hosting Golden State on Tuesday and playing at San Antonio on Wednesday. So for this game they just want to come away with a victory with no need to go all out to cover any double-digit type margin.

The 76ers have covered five of their last seven and are 7-4 ATS at home this season.

Golden State has won 14 in a row. The perception is the Warriors have achieved this by offense. But it has been their outstanding defense. Golden State leads the NBA in defense holding foes to 94.5 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors also rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 40.9 percent. No team has shot better than 44 percent against the Warriors from the field during Golden State's winning streak.

This is an early start - which should help the under. The Mavericks are about offense, but they don't have the young legs to engage in an up-tempo battle with Stephen Curry. Dallas won't have point guard Jameer Nelson either. That's a plus for the under, too, as Nelson is too old to keep pace with Curry.

The under has cashed five of the last six times these teams have met.

The Trail Blazers have been playing above their heads and it caught up to them in their last game, a shocking 90-82 road loss to Minnesota two nights ago. The Trail Blazers scored a season-low and had their worst shooting game of the season.

I'm expecting better from Portland today, but not enough for them to beat the Bulls.

The Bulls are getting healthier, Derrick Rose is looking better and Tom Thibodeau has dialed up the intensity level. That came together in a 105-80 rout of Brooklyn this past Wednesday. I'm expecting the Bulls to have a carryover performance and remain sharp, especially with a strong revenge motive.

The Trail Blazers dealt Chicago its worst defeat of the season when they hosted them on Nov. 21, winning 105-87. The Bulls didn't have Rose, Pau Gasol and Kirk Hinrich in that game. Joakim Noah may not play today, but other than that the Bulls are healthy.

Portland hasn't played a winning team during its last eight road games. The only good team the Trail Blazers have played on the road was the Clippers early in the season when the Clippers were struggling. Portland doesn't have a strong bench and is playing on the road for the third time in four days and fourth in six days.

The Trail Blazers are 3-10 ATS the past 13 times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

The line is lower than it should because San Diego State is coming off one of the worst shooting games of all-time in a 49-36 loss to Washington this past Sunday. The Aztecs shot 20 percent from the floor, scoring the fewest points of a major college program since 1969.

But the Aztecs win by defense and rebounding, which they displayed against Washington. They outrebounded the Huskies by seven and held them under 38 percent from the floor. They just couldn't buy a basket. 

Remember, too, Long Beach State also lost to Washington falling, 80-70.

The Aztecs have defeated the 49ers in 12 of the past 13 meetings. The 49ers have allowed an average of 85.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting from the field during their four true road games. They have yet to display the discipline and toughness required to win at this tough of a road venue especially drawing San Diego State off such a dreadful loss.

The Magic are much improved this season and may get back leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, who has missed the past four games with a back injury. Orlando has been idle since Saturday giving it enough time to recover and get its focus back after six consecutive road games. The Magic nearly won four of those last five. They defeated the Suns, Jazz and Kings and fell to Golden State by only one point. 

The Wizards are playing for the third time in four days. Their last game was a double overtime win against Boston, 133-132, two nights ago.

Washington is a .500 team on the road averaging eight points less than at home. The Wizards may be without Nene, who has a sore knee.

The Hornets have been idle since Friday and could start to finally make a move after getting past the Knicks in their last game. The Hornets have been a huge disappointment, but this matchup sets up well for them.

Not only have the Hornets been idle for the last four days being home the whole time, but Boston is coming off back-to-back games against the Wizards this past Sunday and Monday, the latter being a double-overtime game.

Lance Stephenson has started to play better for Charlotte. Al Jefferson should have another big scoring game in the paint against Boston's weak post players and defensive whiz Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is expected to play for the first time in 13 games after being out with a foot injury.