First off, this isn't such a hard total to go over in today's NFL passing world with the rules skewed in the offense's favor. 
Still, the handicap to both team's offenses has to work - and it does.
Let's begin with the Seahawks. They are going against an Arizona defense that is down compared to last season. The Seahawks have a history of piling up points in Glendale averaging 35 points during their last three visits. Russell Wilson has been fantastic against Arizona's defense during these three road games completing 57 of 88 passes for 771 yards with an 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Cardinals have problems with mobile quarterbacks and no quarterback is more mobile than Wilson. 
Wilson is back healthy and dangerous as ever. Seattle's offensive line has improved, Jimmy Graham is healthy and contributing and Christine Michael has come through as an effective running back. The Seahawks have a balanced offense and Wilson is an elite quarterback. Seattle is going to get its share of points here. 
Now for the Cardinals. On paper, this looks like a tough matchup for Arizona's offense. Seattle ranks first in fewest yards given up and has held foes to less than 16 points per game. However, the Seahawks have gone against only one good offense. That was at home versus the Falcons. The other teams the Seahawks have played were the Dolphins, Rams, 49ers and Jets. 
So far Carson Palmer isn't having the great year he had last season. But Palmer still is much better than those first four quarterbacks Seattle drew - Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick. You could make the argument that Keenum, Gabbert and Fitzpatrick were the least effective quarterbacks during the first quarter of the season. Gabbert and Fitzpatrick have since lost their starting jobs. 
Palmer has good receivers. The Cardinals also have a stud running back for the first time in Bruce Arians' four years as coach. David Johnson rates with Ezekial Elliott as the best runner in football. Thanks to Johnson, the Cardinals have rushed for 343 yards in their last two games. 
The Seahawks can't just key on Arizona's passing game. Their first responsibility is likely to focus on Johnson. This task is made more difficult for Seattle because star strong safety Kam Chancellor is expected to miss a second straight game due to a groin injury. He didn't practice all week. 

The Falcons are playing well, but face both a physical and mental letdown returning home from back-to-back road games against the bruising Broncos and Seahawks. 
This game figures to be a shootout between Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. The Chargers are 2-4, but could be undefeated with better luck. They have outscored their opponents by 18 points. So their record is highly misleading.
The Chargers' confidence is up, though, after they beat the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. That occurred last Thursday so the Chargers have had ample time to rest and prepare. Rivers can definitely take advantage of a soft Falcons defense that has multiple injuries at linebacker and doesn't rush the passer well.
San Diego has covered 20 of the last 29 times it has been a road 'dog. Mike McCoy has been under fire as Chargers head coach, but his team has covered eight of their past 10 games. 

The Vikings have been the biggest money-makers in the NFL under Mike Zimmer covering an amazing 18 of their last 21 games. 
I like the undefeated Vikings in this spot, too, off a bye and catching the Eagles tumbling back to Earth. The Eagles opened 3-0 beating the Browns opening week and taking advantage of the Bears and Steelers, both of whom were missing key skill position players at the time. 
The Vikings give up just 12.6 points per game, fewest in the NFL, and are No. 2 in total defense. The Eagles surrendered 493 yards to the Redskins last week, including 230 on the ground. Their defense was on the field for more than 34 minutes.The Vikings should get back their best wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, and upgraded their offensive line during the bye signing former Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long. 
Philadelphia couldn't manage a touchdown on offense against the Redskins' vulnerable defense. The Eagles are now without suspended offensive tackle Lane Johnson. The Vikings have a fierce pass rush. Philadelphia has been playing sloppy committing 37 penalties in their last three games. 

Ohio State gives up less than 13 points per game. Penn State has picked up its ground attack. The Nittany Lions will try to stay on the ground to keep the ball away from Ohio State. That will keep the clock running. The Buckeyes have allowed just one touchdown rushing all season. 
The key is Penn State's holding Ohio State somewhat in check. There are factors why this could happen. The Nittany Lions will be rested, focused and well prepared after being idle last week. They also are expected to get a couple of injured linebackers back. 
Ohio State is in a flat spot on the road for a second consecutive week after an emotional overtime victory against Wisconsin. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times Ohio State has met a Big Ten foe. 
There also is a weather factor. There's a chance of rain and gusting winds. Right now the forecast is calling for wind in the 15 mph range. 

Toronto has an improved offense sparked by rookie Auston Matthews. The Maple Leafs have scored four goals in three of their four games. 
The Blackhawks are an offensive power, but their defense has slipped and their goaltending has been disappointing. Chicago has permitted at least three goals in all five of its games. 
The Blackhawks are breaking in several rookie defensive players. Chicago, though, is averaging six goals per game in two home games. 

No team had a better road record in the NHL last season than San Jose. The Sharks will be fired up for this game after losing 3-2 in their Stanley Cup rematch to the Penguins this past Thursday. The Sharks led 2-0 in that game. It was the first they had lost in regulation after leading through the second period under coach Pete DeBoer. 
The Red Wings have won three in a row. They are a bit fat and happy after upsetting the Predators, 5-3, at home last night. Now the Red Wings, though, are playing for the fourth time in six days. They are 1-10 the past 11 times when playing without rest.
Detroit also is 2-9 the last 11 times when going against opponents with a winning record. San Jose has beaten the Red Wings during its last four visits to Detroit. 

The offenses could come out rusty. Cincinnati, which ranks 11th in the American Athletic Conference in scoring at 23 points a game, had a bye last week. East Carolina was supposed to play last Thursday, but that game was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew.
In an effort to jumpstart their offense, the Bearcats are turning to Gunther Kiel to be their new starting quarterback. Kiel has never lived up to his vast potential. He had been Cincinnati's third-string quarterback. It's a big stretch to think the Bearcats' offense will respond better to him.
East Carolina ranks last in the nation in red zone scoring percentage. Cincinnati ranks in the top five in red zone scoring defense.  
The under has cashed in eight of Cincinnati's last nine October games, while the Pirates have gone under in seven of their last eight conference matchups.

The class difference here should result in Missouri winning by double-digits.The Tigers drop down from SEC opponents needing a victory to keep alive their bowl hopes. The Blue Raiders haven't knocked off an SEC foe in 11 years. That's because SEC teams are stronger, quicker and more athletic.
Middle Tennessee State went against Vanderbilt earlier this season and lost 47-24. That's a telling sign because the Commodores are mediocre. 
Missouri's defense should play much better against this foes and its balanced offense will put up points against a Middle Tennessee State defense that has allowed nearly 1,200 yards and six touchdowns through the air during the last three games. The Blue Raiders could have fatigue issues, too, coming off a double-overtime loss to Western Kentucky.  

West Virginia has been a nice surprise, but I like TCU here. I'm not sold on West Virginia's defense, nor the Mountaineers' ability to control the trenches. The Horned Frogs have 21 sacks.  
The line is too high here based somewhat on the Mountaineers' 48-17 road victory against Texas Tech last week. That was West Virginia's best game of the season. The Mountaineers will be hard-pressed to duplicate that effort. They have failed to cover seven of the last eight times they've gone against an above .500 foe. 
TCU averages 40.2 points per game. The Horned Frogs have a balanced offense and a pair of standout defensive players in linebackers Ty Summers and Travin Howard. 
It's significant that the Horned Frogs were idle last week. Not only are they 12-1 following a bye, but they could have key reinforcements playing in this game.
There is optimism at TCU that the Horned Frogs will have star receiver and kick returner KaVontae Turpin back from a knee injury plus center Austin Schlottmann returning from a foot injury. The Horned Frogs could further be bolstered by having cornerback Julius Lewis and offensive lineman Trey Elliott available for the first time this season. Both have missed the season due to injuries.  

I'm not nominating either team for having the defense of the year. Both team's offenses are much better than their respective defenses. But the setting and total make this a worthy under the total investment. 
This total is through the roof in part because Oregon surrendered 70 points to Washington its last game and Cal has an outstanding quarterback. Davis Webb. Some of the Oregon players called out its defense following that brutal 70-21 loss to the Huskies.
But it's important to note the Ducks had a bye last week. They also had a player's only meeting this week. The Ducks have dropped four in a row. They are fresh following their bye, though, and should be extremely motivated after the Washington debacle. Webb hurt his hand during his last start, although he's expected to start. His top receiver, Chad Hansen, is dealing with an ankle injury. 
Everything needs to line up perfect for an over to happen on a total this high. It's a tremendous plus for the under if Webb and Hansen are less than 100 percent. 
The Golden Bears have a decent pass defense, ranking in the top 50. Oregon freshman quarterback Justin Herbert is set to make just his second start. The Ducks figure to do plenty of running, which eats clock. Cal shouldn't be taken by surprise by this also having had an extra week to rest, prepare and get fresh again since it also had a bye last week. 
Oregon kept Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall draft pick, in check during last year's meeting beating the Golden Bears, 44-28. That total was lined at 75 1/2 so the combined 72 points went under marking the seventh time in the last nine meeting these two teams have gone beneath the total. 

The Red Wings have the better record and are at home, but I'm much more impressed with the Predators. 
The Predators are the better team with one of the best power plays in hockey. They also have an elite goalie, Pekka Rinne. 
The Red Wings have gotten away the past two games with not playing well but still winning beating the Senators and Rangers. The Predators were nipped by the Stars, 2-1, three days ago when goalie Kari Lehtonen played out of his mind. 
Nashville had opened its season with a pair of games against Chicago. Now the Predators drop down in class to meet the Red Wings. The Predators are rested and have a strong sense of urgency. 

The Canucks are an early surprise team in the NHL going 3-0. They've surrendered just five goals, getting outstanding net work from backup Jacob Markstrom. He's stopped 42 of 46 shots and will be in goal her against Buffalo. 
Vancouver is playing solid defense in front of Markstrom and their forwards have been committed to playing two-way hockey. I see that pattern continuing against the Sabres, who are down two of their best offensive players with Jake Eichel and Evander Kane out with injuries. 
The Canucks have won their past five home games extending back to last season. They are 8-1-1 the past 10 times hosting the Sabres. The spot is bad, too, for the Sabres playing in their third road game in five days. 

The Blues have won six of their last seven in Edmonton and are 20-8 in their last 28 away matchups. 
St. Louis is the stronger defensive team, has a red hot star in Vladimir Tarasenko and should have Jaden Schwartz back for the first time this season to further bolster its offense. The Blues shouldn't lack incentive after blowing a lead in a loss to Vancouver two days ago especially Nail Yakupov, who the Oilers traded to the Blues before the start of the season. Yakupov could live up to his potential with the Blues. 
Edmonton has given up 15 goals, most in the Western Conference. Oilers goalie CamTalbot has been hot and cold. His concentration may be off after his wife gave birth to twins on Wednesday. 

Not only did the Cubs break out of their slump, but they got their swagger and confidence back in their 10-2 road win against the Dodgers Wednesday.
Now the Cubs have a huge pitching edge in today's Game 5 matchup of lefty Jon Lester against Kenta Maeda. 
Not only did Lester have a Cy Young Award-worthy regular season, but he's a postseason monster giving up just one run in 14 playoff innings. No team had a harder time hitting lefties this season than the Dodgers. LA ranked last in batting average versus southpaws at .213. The Dodgers also were last against lefties in OBP, OPS and slugging percentage. They've been helpless against Lester, who has a 0.86 ERA versus the Dodgers in three starts spanning 21 innings this season, including Game 1 of this series. 
Chicago is 24-7 in Lester's last 31 starts. The Cubs also have rested dominant lefty Aroldis Chapman to close. 
By contrast, Maeda has been terrible. He hasn't reached the fifth inning in any of his last four starts, including his last one against the Cubs in Game 1 of this NLCS yielding three runs in four innings. Before that outing, Maeda had allowed 12 runs in three starts spanning only 9 2/3 innings. 

Maeda has hit the wall giving up 12 runs in his last three starts spanning only 9 2/3 innings, the last coming this past Sunday in a loss to the Giants.

Auston Matthews is the early talk of the NHL season after the No. 1 overall draft pick scored four goals in his debut for Toronto. 
Matthews certainly brings great potential. But let's talk reality. Matthews didn't get a point in the Maple Leafs' last game. Winnipeg has its own star rookie in Patrik Laine, who was the second overall choice in back of Matthews. The Jets have three of the best four players on the ice with Blake Wheeler - who has scored a goal in all three of Winnipeg's games and has scored a point in 14 straight - Mark Scheifele and defenseman Dustin Byfuglien. All three players have strong histories versus the Maple Leafs.
Toronto has the worst power play in the league being 0-for-8 with a man advantage. The Maple Leafs ranked 29th in power play efficiency last season so this is no surprise. 
The Jets have defeated the Maple Leafs four straight at MTS Centre, including winning by a combined 11-2 during Toronto's previous two visits. 
The Maple Leafs did beat Boston at home in their last game. But that was back on Saturday. They've only played two games and figure to be rusty. The Jets should have extra motivation for their home fans as their most famous line in team history - consisting of Anders Hedberg, Bobby Hull and Ulf Nilsson - will be inducted into the team Hall of Fame before the game. 

The 0-3 Flames are in must-win mode here at home. That should occur against the beat-up Sabres. Buffalo has failed to win during its last six trips to Calgary. 
The Sabres are minus two of their best offensive players with Jack Eichel and Evander Kane out. Despite missing those players, the Sabres posted their first win of the season beating the Oilers, 5-2, Sunday. 
Buffalo is 25-54 following a victory. 
The Flames are close to winning. They lost in a shootout at Vancouver in their last game. I give the Flames an edge at goalie with Chad Johnson against Robin Lehner, who has yielded 11 goals in three starts against Calgary. 
Johnson played for the Sabres last season compiling a 2.36 GAA and 92 percent save percentage in 45 appearances. Brian Elliott didn't play well in Calgary's first two games. Johnson played in the shootout loss to the Canucks and stopped 30 of 31 shots.  

The Stars are the best offensive team in hockey. They averaged a league-best 3.2 goals last season and have tallied nine goals in their first two games this season. It's not surprising given their star power on offense. 
Dallas, though, remains weak defensively and in the nets. The Stars are allowing four goals per game. 
Nashville, with the addition of P.K. Subban, is now one of the best offensive teams in hockey, too. The Predators have scored nine goals. Subban has been a key figure on the Predators' deadly power play that has produced at a 50 percent rate. This puts the already weak Stars' defense at a disadvantage - either play timid not taking a chance on drawing penalties, or be aggressive risking Nashville power play opportunities. 
It's worth noting, too, that each team has had two days of rest. The Stars have gone over the total the past seven times they've been in that situation while the over is 8-1-2 the past 11 times the Predators have played on two days rest. 

This is the Blue Jays game to win and not just because they are down 0-2 and coming home to their quirky Astroturf field. They also have a strong starting pitching edge for the first time in the series.
Trevor Bauer has a 6.27 ERA in four career games versus the Blue Jays, including three starts. He has a 7.11 ERA in two career appearances at Rogers Centre. Look for the Blue Jays bats to come alive at home with the roof likely to be closed. 
Bauer made his postseason debut during Game 1 of the AL Division series against Boston. He was smacked for three runs on five hits - including two homers - and couldn't make it out of the fourth inning. 
Marcus Stroman has made four playoff starts. He gave up two runs on four hits in six innings against the Orioles during his postseason start this year. Stroman holds a 1.29 ERA in two starts against Cleveland this season with 15 strikeouts in 14 innings. 
Toronto has won 22 of the last 32 times Stroman has pitched on Astroturf. 

Neither team has a strong goalie and both squads have defensive issues especially defending on power plays. 
Ottawa has surrendered seven goals in its two games, including four to rookie Auston Matthews. The Senators, though, look like an early scoring machine under new coach Guy Bocher, who stresses fast tempo. Ottawa is averaging four goals per game. The Senators feature the best offensive defenseman in the NHL, Eric Karlsson. He's on pace for another big season with a goal and three assists. 
Detroit has yielded 10 goals in two games. But the Red Wings opened against the Lightning and Panthers. Now the Red Wings are home for the first time and desperate for a victory. They should be able to take advantage of Ottawa's lack of defensive depth and poor goalie play from Craig Anderson, who has a 3.34 GAA and less than an 89 percent save percentage. 

This line is off. These teams aren't even, which the oddsmaker is insinuating opening the game Houston minus 3 with home-field usually worth a field goal. 
The Texans have a strong defense. They rank fifth in fewest yards allowed and are No. 1 in pass defense. 
The Colts have a defense for the ages - the dark ages. It's one of their worst ever, which is saying a lot. Indy just allowed the Bears and backup quarterback Brian Hoyer to roll up 522 yards in a six-point home win that was closer than the score may indicate. 
The Texans beat the Bears by nine points opening week and the Bears have regressed since then due to multiple injuries. 
I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler. But the Texans' offensive line should be much improved with the return of left tackle Duane Brown. Osweiler has a top-five wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and a solid running back in Lamar Miller. 
The Colts are giving up 29.6 points a game, fourth-worst in the NFL, and are 30th in yards given up. 
Indy wins games by outscoring opponents in shootouts. The Colts have been fortunate to draw below average defenses in four of their first five games. Their offensive line is inexperienced and can't protect Andrew Luck, who already has been sacked 20 times. The Texans have a strong pass rush even without injured J.J. Watt with emerging stars Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. 
Look for the Texans to dominate both lines of scrimmage - and the game. 

The elements - both matchup-wise and weather-wise - are there for this total to go under.
Seattle's defense is as dominant as ever giving up the fewest yards per game and third-fewest points per game at 13.5. The Seahawks could have allowed even fewer points per game but their defensive numbers are skewed a bit because of giving up a fluke touchdown on an offensive fumble returned for a touchdown and letting up against the 49ers after building a huge lead. 
The Seahawks have had ample time to game plan for Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. having been idle this past week. 
The Falcons are in a flat spot having just upset the Broncos in Denver. Their offense is built for carpet inside a dome. This game is on grass in the loudest outdoor venue in the NFL. 
Atlanta is improved defensively. Falcons coach Dan Quinn knows the Seahawks having been the team's defensive coordinator before being named Falcons head coach. The Falcons do have a cluster injury problem at linebacker, but there's a very good chance star rookie linebacker and the team's second-leading tackler, Deion Jones, plays after missing last week with an ankle injury.
Bad weather is expected for this game with wind and rain.  

I like the Chiefs a lot here for three main reasons: They are the superior team. The situation. And the line value with the Raiders opening the favorite. 
Oakland is much improved. Granted. But the Chiefs have won five of the past six meetings. They have the better defense and superior ground attack. Derek Carr is an emerging star. Alex Smith wins, though. The Chiefs are 13-3 in their last 16 games with Smith behind center. 
The Raiders are facing a triple whammy here. They are fat and happy riding a three-game winning streak, including holding off San Diego this past Sunday for a big AFC West Division victory. 
The Chiefs are off their worst loss since Andy Reid took over - an embarrassing 43-14 nationally televised Sunday night loss to the Steelers. That was two weeks ago. The Chiefs were idle last week. So they will have had two weeks to stew about that defeat. 
No coach is better off a bye than Reid. His Eagles and Chiefs teams are 15-2 after being idle the week before. That's 88 percent for a 17-game sampling. 
Oakland has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home contests. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS the past 30 times laying points, including failing to cover the past five times they've been home chalk. 
The Raiders may not have their best running back, Latavius Murray, again. The Chiefs' star running back, Jamaal Charles, should be ready now for full-time duty. Smith has weapons with Charles, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. The Raiders give up the most total yards and passing yards in the NFL. They also rank 27th in run defense. 

The Steelers are on full throttle since Le'Veon Bell returned from suspension scoring 84 points and piling up 869 yards during their last two games. Ben Roethlisberger is on fire during this span completing 76 percent of his passes with nine touchdown throws and no interceptions.
The Dolphins' porous defense, which is especially weak in the back seven, isn't going to be able to slow down the Steelers. Strong safety Reshad Jones easily is the Dolphins' best player in the secondary. He's dealing with a groin injury, though, and may not play. 
A key is if the Dolphins can hold up their end and produce their share of points. Look for Miami's offense to come around this week. The Steelers' defense isn't that good and the Dolphins - for the first time all season - are healthy in the offensive line. Their two best offensive linemen - center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Branden Albert - are both expected to play. Miami also could get back its best running back, Arian Foster.
Ryan Tannehill will be far more productive with better offensive line support, which I see happening here. 

The Stars have the advantage of already having played a game. Colorado hasn't played in a week when it finished its preseason. The Avalanche are breaking in a lot of new players. It's going to take time for them to get in sync. This is a tough opening game for that to happen.
Dallas opened with a 4-2 victory against Anaheim. The Stars achieved that win despite Tyler Seguin not scoring and Jamie Benn only getting one assist. Those are two of the top 10 scorers in the league. 
A key for the Stars is getting solid goaltending. They received that against the Ducks. 
Colorado concluded last season dropping its last five home contests. 

I don't like to lay nearly 2/1 on a baseball game, but I can't see the Cubs losing this game with southpaw Jon Lester facing a cold Kenta Maeda and the Dodgers not likely to have closer Kenley Jansen - their one consistent reliever - available. 
The Dodgers went all out to eliminate the Nationals this past Thursday using both Jansen and Clayton Kershaw to nail down a 4-3 victory. Jansen threw 51 pitches and was gassed. 
The Cubs are the best team in baseball. They are home, rested and have their best money pitcher going. This is almost a give-up game for the Dodgers. Maeda has hit the wall giving up 12 runs in his last three starts spanning only 9 2/3 innings, the last coming this past Sunday in a loss to the Giants. 
Lester had another brilliant season and will draw Cy Young consideration. The Dodgers do not match up well to him. No team was worse against southpaws than Los Angeles. The Dodgers rank last against lefties in batting average (.213), OBP, OPS and slugging percentage. 
The combination of Lester and lefty closer Aroldis Chapman available if needed should severely limit the Dodgers. Maeda and a spent bullpen certainly can't be counted on to keep the Cubs in check. 

Colorado isn't used to be in this lofty role - and the Buffaloes don't deserve to be nearly two touchdowns favorite here against a Pac-12 foe that isn't any less talented, bigger and faster than they are.  
The Sun Devils have dominated this series winning the past seven times, covering six of the seven. 
Arizona State holds a special teams edge and can stop Colorado's ground attack. The Sun Devils rank fifth nationally in run defense and first in the Pac-12. 
The Sun Devils average 39.7 points and 434.8 yards per game. So they will present a supreme challenge to the Buffaloes especially with starting quarterback Manny Wilkins able to play. 

The Senators were fortunate to beat the Maple Leafs at home in their opener. Ottawa won 5-4 in overtime despite being outshot, 38-30. 
The Canadiens are committed to proving they can win without star goalie Carey Price, sidelined with the flu. Backup goalie Al Montoya looked good in the Canadiens' opening 4-1 win against the Sabres with 30 saves and will get additional help with defenseman Jeff Petry set to make his season debut after recovering from a knee injury. 
I liked the way the Canadiens played as a team versus the Sabres. It bodes well against the Senators, who are in a transition period with a new coaching staff and who gave up the most shots per game last season. Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson doesn't have a good history either against Montreal giving up an average of 3.10 goals in 18 career games. 

Washington nearly - and should have - beaten the Penguins at Pittsburgh in its opening game this past Thursday losing in a shootout. 
Look for the Capitals to take their frustrations out on the Islanders, a team they are 9-1-3 against in their last 13 meetings. 
The Islanders have had real problems reigning in Alex Ovechkin, who has put up 47 points, including 32 goals, in 41 career games versus New York.
The Islanders have some rosters adjustments to be made having played six defensemen against the Rangers in their season debut Thursday. Not that it did any good as the Islanders lost, 5-3. 
This is what Islanders coach Jack Capuano was quoted as saying following that defeat: "... It's impossible to have six defensemen on your roster. We have to give other guys an opportunity here to find out early and see what we want to do on the back end." 

This has been a high scoring series ever since Bob Davie took over at New Mexico in 2012. The combined score of their matchup during the past three years is 82 points in 2013, 66 in 2014 and 82 last season. Look for that trend to continue in Saturday's game, which is on the fast track of the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. 
Early money has been on the under based on the Lobos being without injured starting quarterback Austin Apodaca and their best running back, Teriyon Gibson, who had missed the last two games with a strained hamstring. Apodaca isn't likely to play, but Gibson is expected to play. He ranked No. 1 in  average yard per carry before falling out of the rankings due to missing the last two games. 
New Mexico leads the nation in rushing. So they aren't so quarterback dependent as other teams. However, the Lobos can't stop anyone giving up 36 points per game, which ranks 107th in the nation. The over has cashed in the Lobos' last seven games.
Air Force is used to seeing option teams. But the Falcons haven't faced a tempo this quick, or a team this speedy. This is what Falcons defensive coordinator Steve Russ was quoted as saying about New Mexico: "They will be, position for position for position, the fastest team we play." 
The Lobos put up 47 points and 512 yards against Air Force in last year's game. Only California with Jared Goff then at quarterback has put up more yards on the Falcons during the past 29 games. 
Air Force, which has gone over the total in eight of its last nine Mountain West Conference games, is going to score its share of points, too. The Falcons rank in the upper half of the country averaging 33.2 points per contest and 445.2 yards. 
New Mexico's defense is horrible? How horrible? The Lobos surrendered 32 points to New Mexico State, 37 to Rutgers 41 to San Jose State and gave up 49 to Boise State midway through the third quarter last week with the Broncos contend then to sit on a blowout lead. 

I love Bill Snyder as a big road 'dog. The Wildcats have covered 17 of their last 22 as a road 'dog. 
Kansas State has beaten Oklahoma during its past two trips to Norman as underdogs. The Sooners buried the Wildcats, 55-0, last season. But the Wildcats were decimated with injuries for that matchup. The key here is that the Wildcats are healthy this time around and Jesse Ertz is making a difference at quarterback. The Wildcats will be extra motivated remembering that beat down from last season.
Ertz can put up points against a very vulnerable Sooners defense that gives up more than 36 points per game and ranks 114th in pass defense. 
The Sooners are a top-20 offensive team, but Kansas State has held all six of its foes under their season low in yards, including holding Texas Tech to 17 points below its scoring average and West Virginia to 12 points below its scoring average during the past two weeks.  

I look at this opening game between the Blue Jays and Indians and I want a rested Corey Kluber - backed by Andrew Miller and Cody Allen - going for me. That's a potential 10 innings of stud pitching. 
The Blue Jays can't match that with Marco Estrada starting and less dependable late-inning relievers.
Kluber is coming off another brilliant season, 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA, capped by seven scoreless innings in a 6-0 playoff victory against the Red Sox. 
Cleveland's bullpen tied with Kansas City for having the second-lowest ERA in the league at 3.45. The Indians' bullpen combined to go 1-0 with two saves and a 1.74 ERA in the team's three-game sweep of Boston. Allen has two saves, five strikeouts and no runs allowed in three innings. Miller is the Indians' biggest relief weapon because he can close, or pitch during any inning. Indians manager Terry Francona handled Miller brilliantly this season and during the playoffs. 
The Indians averaged more runs per game than the Blue Jays. Cleveland has a huge base running edge leading the AL in steals and ranking second in MLB in stolen base percentage. Toronto catcher Russell Martin ranked last among MLB qualifiers in throwing out runners at 15.3 percent. 
Cleveland had the most home wins of any American League team going 53-28 at Progressive Field. 

I'm very high on Nashville this season and so are its fans. Look for the Predators to have a strong home ice edge here.
The Blackhawks are going with a lot of youth. Because of that I expect them to struggle early, which was the case in their opening 5-2 home loss to the Blues. 
Chicago is especially inexperienced right now on defense. The Predators have upgraded their defense, which is now one of the best in the league, trading for P.K. Subban. He joins All-Star Roman Josi to give the Predators arguably the best defensive tandem in the NHL. 

San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. 
The Chargers are banged-up in the secondary - missing two of their three best cornerbacks in Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers - and Philip Rivers doesn't have several of his key offensive weapons, including Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The Chargers' offensive line is going to have problems handling Von Miller, who already has 6 1/2 sacks, and the rest of the Denver pass rush. 
The Falcons were able to run on the Chargers. I don't see the Chargers doing that. Melvin Gordon has found the end zone this year, but he's far from an elite running back. 
Denver is fuming from losing at home to Atlanta. The Broncos defense did their job even though it permitted more than 20 points for the first time in 10 games. The Broncos were done in by the inexperience of rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch starting his first NFL game. Denver's blocking was below par, too, minus right tackle Donald Stephenson and tight end Virgil Green.
Word is both Stephenson and Green will be ready for Thursday game. Another key is that regular quarterback Trevor Siemian also will be ready. 
Broncos coach Gary Kubiak is expected to miss the game, hospitalized because of complex migraines. I see this as even more incentive for the Broncos to win one for their coach especially coming off a home loss. 
San Diego may have the worst home field advantage of any team in the league. The Chargers find ways to lose nearly every week having blown leads to the Chiefs, Colts and Saints. Now they draw the defending champs, a team that really knows how to win. 

The line is short because Montreal is on the road and the Canadiens won't have superstar goalie Carey Price, who is ill. 
Buffalo is a bad team, which is reflected in its 20-42 record in its last 62 home games. The Sabres are going to be missing their top offensive players, Jack Eichel and Kyle Okposo. Center Ryan O'Reilly isn't likely to play either. 
The Canadiens are going to have a huge edge down the middle because of these missing Buffalo players. The Sabres may not be mentally ready either after witnessing Eichel go down screaming in pain during Wednesday's practice with a high ankle sprain. 
The Canadiens will be going all out to prove they can win this season in games Price doesn't play. Their offense should be improved with Andrew Shaw joining Max Pacioretty and Alex Galchenyuk. 

The Bruins played well on the road horrible at home last season. But I have to fade them in their opening away contest here. Not only will the Bruins be minus star forward Patrice Bergeron, out with a lower-body injury, but they will be short-handed on defense with several injuries. 
The Bruins will have a lot of youth to go with veteran Zdeno Chara, who at 39 has slowed down. Boston could have a couple of defensemen making their NHL debuts. This puts a lot of pressure on Chara and goalie Tuukka Rask. 
Columbus has enough scoring to take advantage with Brandon Saad, Boone Jenner, Brandon Dubinsky and Scott Hartnell. I'm expecting the Blue Jackets' youthful defense to be improved this season and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky looked outstanding during the World Cup. 

Both teams missed the playoffs last season. The difference is the Senators have a decent chance of making them this season while the Maple Leafs have too much youth, which must be served. 
The Senators have lots of offense with Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Zack Smith and Mark Stone not to mention Erik Karlsson, the top offensive-minded defenseman in the NHL. The Maple Leafs can't match that kind of scoring - at least not yet. 
Toronto has lost during each of its past four visits to Ottawa. The Maple Leafs have been the worst road team in hockey losing 50 of their past 66 away matchups. 
The Senators have been pointing to this rivalry matchup under new coach Guy Boucher, who has conducted a grueling training camp. Look for the Senators to show improvement defensively and on special teams under Boucher to go with a top-10 goal-scoring outfit. 

I'll take a plus price with the resilient Giants at home. 
The Cubs have never faced southpaw Matt Moore, who has allowed just two runs during his last two starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. Moore has been tough at home lately, too, holding opponents to two runs or less in each of his past four starts at AT&T Park. Chicago is 1-4 the last five times it has faced a lefty starter. 
The Giants have plenty of playoff experience, which the Cubs lack. San Francisco has won the past 10 times in playoff elimination games under Bruce Bochy. They are a proven commodity in this type of situation. The Cubs aren't.
Cubs starter John Lackey is past his prime. His road ERA is 4.37 compared to 2.62 at Wrigley Field. Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman looks vulnerable, too, far from the dominant closer he had been. 

The Nationals should be able to hang in with the Dodgers in this spot - if not win outright with lefty Gio Gonzalez facing rookie Kenta Maeda.
No team had a lower batting average versus southpaws than the Dodgers at .213. Gonzalez has taken advantage posting a 3-1 lifetime mark against the Dodgers with a 1.69 ERA in five career starts. LA's batters have a combined .163 average when facing Gonzalez. 
Maeda has been consistent all season. But he's hit the wall giving up eight runs in his last two starts spanning just 6 2/3 innings. Since the All-Star break, Maeda has a 4.25 ERA. He's not the same pitcher he was during the first half of the season when teams had never faced him. 
The Nationals are 12-3 in their last 15 games if plus 1 1/2 runs, while the Dodgers are 1-8 in their past nine games at minus 1 1/2 runs. 

First off, the weather is going to be fine for this day game with temperatures in the 50's with no rain and little wind. 
Calgary is averaging 38.3 points in nine of its last 10 games. Toronto ranks second-to-last in scoring defense allowing 30 points per game. 
Yet the total isn't as high as it should be because the linesmaker doesn't trust the Argonauts' offense with fill-in quarterback Drew Willy throwing to many unknown targets. Toronto released four of its receivers this past Monday. 
The Argonauts had scored a combined 23 points in their last two games. So those receivers weren't doing anything. The CFL is a passing league. Eager rookies now will get the chance. Willie is a five-year veteran. He's been with the team for three weeks and got his first start for the Argonauts last week. He'll be more comfortable in the system. 
I think the downgrade is too strict given the Stampeders' powerful offense and Toronto's weak defense, a defense that has yielded 29 or more points in six of the past eight games. The Argonauts surrendered 38 points to Montreal last week. Montreal ranks second-to-last in scoring at 22.1 points per game. Calgary is the top scoring team in the league averaging 34.1 points. The Stampeders should just about be able to cover this total themselves. 
Calgary's defense isn't as good as its offense. The Stampeders have allowed at least 23 points in five of their last six games. 

Aaron Rodgers is very good at any venue, but he's an absolute monster at Lambeau Field where since 2014 he has thrown 46 touchdown passes and been picked off just four times. The Giants' defense is improved, but not nearly enough to slow down Green Bay's offense, which showed definite improvement in its last game and is coming off a bye. Jordy Nelson is nearing 100 percent, making a big difference for Green Bay. 
The Giants only have four sacks. They are weak defensively inside with below average linebackers and their secondary is beat-up with slot cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and cornerback Eli Apple looking like they're going to miss a second straight game. Free safety Darian Thompson may not play either due to a foot injury. That would mean New York would be missing three of its top five secondary people.
Kirk Cousins had a 106.4 passer rating against the Giants two weeks ago and Sam Bradford turned in a 101.9 quarterback rating this past Monday against New York. This bodes well for a huge game from Rodgers. 
The Giants are due for a breakout game on offense - and I see that coming here against a 29th-ranked Packers secondary giving up a 66 percent completion rate and 307 yards through the air. The Packers won't have Sam Shields, their best cornerback, and may also be missing their next best cornerback, Demarious Randall. The Giants have a strong passing attack they've just been slowed by turnovers. 
Giants coach Ben McAdoo knows the Packers well having been an offensive assistant in Green Bay from 2006-2013. The Packers haven't faced a wide receiver the caliber of Odell Beckham Jr. yet. Stefon Diggs lit up the Packers secondary for 182 yards on nine receptions three weeks ago. Then in their last game, the Packers surrendered 205 receiving yards and two touchdowns to Marvin Jones. Those were easily career-bests for Diggs and Jones. 
Weather won't be a factor with clear skies, no wind and temperatures in the low 50s. 

The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points.
The Chargers have led by double-digits at halftime in three of their games. They have blown three fourth-quarter leads. They are a frustrated bunch who are averaging more than 30 points a game and have a decent secondary.
Philip Rivers has a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is on pace to throw for 4,440 yards. He's having another splendid season. Melvin Gordon has rushed for six touchdowns. The Chargers will get their points against a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom-three in total yards, rush yards and pass yards. 
The Raiders are returning from their third long trip in four weeks. They aren't as desperate as the Chargers, who also have double-revenge motivation. 

The Bengals are at least a whole another tier higher than Dallas. The Cowboys are thrilled when they beat the lowly 49ers. The Bengals - who have made the playoffs five straight years - expect to the beat the 49ers. That's a huge difference between these two. 
The Cowboys lack the experience at the skill position the Bengals have. They also don't have Cincinnati's veteran savvy. 
The Bengals have covered in nine of their last 10 road contests, while Dallas has lost straight-up eight of its last nine home games. 
The Cowboys gave up 300-yard passing games to Brian Hoyer and Kirk Cousins. They allowed Eli Manning to throw for three touchdowns. Dallas doesn't have the pass rush nor the secondary to defend against A.J. Green. The Cowboys aren't going to get passes air-mailed to them like they did this past Sunday with Blaine Gabbert.

This is going to be a defensive, grind-it-out type of game as reflected in the total, which is the second-lowest on the Week 5 menu. So taking a lot of points makes sense especially given the matchup and spot. 
The Texans get a big boost to their offense with left tackle Duane Brown slated to make his season debut. I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler, but steady Lamar Miller and Brown back will take the pressure off the Houston quarterback. Miller is a "B" type running back who forces the Vikings to respect the run.  
Minnesota has an outstanding defense, but so does Houston. The Texans give up the fewest passing yards per game. They've allowed only one touchdown throw all season, none in their past three games. Only four teams yield fewer yards per game than the Texans, who surrender barely 18 points per game.
The Vikings employ backup running backs and aren't likely to have their top wide receiver and spark plug, Stefon Diggs. That leaves Sam Bradford, who is still learning the offense, without a reliable target. 
This spot isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings showcased their new stadium three weeks ago against Green Bay on Sunday night, knocked off defending NFC champion Carolina on the road two weeks ago in a prove-it-to-me matchup and defeated the Giants at home this past Monday night. The Vikings have a bye after this game.This matchup for the Vikings is against a non-marquee, non-division opponent, a letdown for them after their previous three challenges and high profile games. 

Before getting upset by South Alabama, San Diego State had scored 45 points on Cal and 42 on Northern Illinois. The Aztecs have proven they can pile up points against suspect defenses. UNLV ranks 84th in scoring defense allowing 30.4 points a game.
The Aztecs have the nation's leading rusher, Donnel Pumphrey, and are in a foul mood after having their 13-game winning streak ended. San Diego State's offensive coordinator is Jeff Horton, who was once UNLV's head coach. Bobby Hauck is San Diego State's special teams coach. He also is a former head man at UNLV. So expect those coaches to come up with effective offensive designs. 
UNLV has a solid ground attack, too. The Rebels have rushed for 364 yards in each of their last two games and found a quarterback last week in Dalton Sneed. Sneed looked like Doug Flutie in his first start leading the Rebels to a 45-20 victory against Fresno State. 

Life as an independent isn't easy these days. BYU is experiencing that. The Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and now play in the Eastern Time Zone for the second time in two weeks. 
The timing and opponent are especially bad for BYU. Michigan State not only is in circle-the-wagons mode - 0-2 in the Big Ten for the first time since 2007 following consecutive losses to Wisconsin and Indiana - but causes a matchup nightmare problem for the Cougars. 
The Spartans always have a strong run defense under Mark Dantonio. That's the case again this season as the Spartans rank 15th versus the run. BYU just surrendered 53 points at home to Toledo of the Mid-American Conference. The Cougars, inconsistent all season, rank 97th in total defense. They rely on their running spearheaded by Jamaal Williams. The Spartans are going to key on him and quarterback Taysom Hill isn't a strong enough passer to carry the Cougars in this extremely tough road setting. Hill needs to be set up by Williams not the only way around. 
Not only have the Cougars been traveling the country, but they've yet to have a bye. They get the chance to host a rare SEC foe next Friday when Mississippi State visits Provo in a game that will be televised by ESPN. That's the game the Cougars will be pointing to. 
It's Michigan State, the defending Big Ten champion, that has the urgency this week. The Spartans have the talent, desire and right scheduling setup to beat the Cougars by double-digits. 

The oddsmaker isn't given these defenses enough respect making the total this high. 
Texas A&M has a decent offense, but the Aggies have a much stronger defense. The Aggies rank No. 1 in tackles for losses and have a pair of tremendous edge pass rushers in Myles Garrett, who is going to play this week after missing last week, and Daeshon Hall. The Aggies also have one of the top safety trio in the country with Donovan Wilson, Justin Evans and Armani Watts. 
Tennessee is a slow-starting team averaging fewer than 11 points during the first half. The Volunteers aren't going to be able to take it up in the second half - not against this caliber of defense and not at this tough Kyle Field venue. The Vols are going to be without their leading rusher, Jalen Hurd. He's out with a lower body injury. Hurd is a pounder and a good pass blocker. So his presence will be missed for the Vols. 
Defensively, though, the Vols can hang in due to their opportunistic nature. They've forced 10 turnovers. The days of Johnny Manziel are long gone. Trevor Knight isn't a big play quarterback but far more of a game manager-type. The Aggies rank 110th in red zone touchdowns. 

I like the spot, matchup and Wyoming's pedigree against Air Force. The Cowboys have covered the past seven times versus Air Force. 
Third-year Wyoming coach Craig Bohl knows how to defend Air Force's option. The Falcons have averaged 22 points during their past two games against Bohl's Cowboys. 
Wyoming has a lot of senior leadership. The Cowboys have 17 starters back from last season. One of those is Brian Hill, who ranks sixth in the nation in rushing. The Cowboys are a power team so they are familiar with Air Force's grind it out style. This is Bohl's best Wyoming team.  
The Cowboys have won their last four home games and draw Air Force in a flat spot. The Falcons just beat Navy at home in a revenge spot and have another revenge spot next week against New Mexico, who they lost to last year as an 11-point favorite. 

Bowling Green ranks 127th in yards gained. The Falcons are barely averaging 17 points. They aren't going to do much against Ohio, which has one of the better defenses in the MAC. It's been beyond a dismal season for the Falcons, but they should not lack for motivation after falling to Eastern Michigan at home last week. 
The total is high here because Bowling Green not once but TWICE has given up 77 points in a game. That came to Ohio State and Memphis, though, and skewed the Falcons' defensive scoring numbers. Those are a pair of top 15 offenses.
The Falcons have gone under during their last five MAC games. Ohio has gone under in 12 of its last 17 MAC contests. 

Forget the records here that show Ottawa leading the Eastern Division with a 6-6 record and Saskatchewan last in the Western Division at 3-10. 
Saskatchewan plays in the much superior Western Division and is coming off two straight victories. The Roughriders have covered in their last five games. They still are mathematically alive for a playoff spot. 
Ottawa has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games going 3-6 straight-up. The Redblacks have yet to cover in five meetings versus Western Conference foes. They also are 1-5 ATS at home. 
The Roughriders' offense has picked up behind quarterback Darian Durant and their defense has surrendered less than 20 points per game during their last three games. Roughriders coach Chris Jones has a strong defensive mastermind reputation. His team finally is buying into his intricate defensive system. 
Ottawa is giving up 27.3 points per game. The Redblacks win with offense, but are down perhaps their best offensive lineman, left tackle SirVincent Rogers. The Roughriders also have had two weeks to prepare being idle last week. 
Saskatchewan won the first meeting, 30-29, back in Week 5 as a six-point underdog. The timing is ripe for the Roughriders to pull a similar upset. 

Two strong starting pitchers, the wind blowing in and an under home plate umpire combined with a total priced too high make this a solid under play. 
Toronto starter J.A. Happ enjoyed a career season. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last five starts. 
Rangers starter Yu Darvish has gone at least six innings allowing one or no runs with one or fewer walks and at least nine strikeouts in three of his last four starts. Darvish comes into this matchup fresh, too. He pitched just 100 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays haven't seen him this season. 
Darvish has made just one big league postseason start, which came four years ago. However, when he pitched in Japan he went 8-2 with 1.38 ERA during 11 playoff starts. The under has cashed 12 of the last 14 times the Blue Jays have gone against a right-handed starter. The under also has cashed the last five times Darvish has pitched against the Blue Jays. 
The weather forecast is for wind to be blowing in at 10-11 mph. Lance Barksdale is slated to be the home plate ump. The under has cashed 59 percent of the time he's been the home plate umpire during the last two seasons. 

I like the Cardinals to win here, but because Drew Stanton is replacing injured Carson Palmer I'm going to play Arizona on the money line rather than lay more than a field goal. 
The Cardinals have gotten off to a slow start, but remain vastly superior to San Francisco, which is a bottom-three team. Arizona will be extremely focused at 1-3 and off bad losses to the Bills and Rams. 
Stanton is a downgrade from Palmer, but he is more mobile, will be coached up by astute coach Bruce Arians and has an array of weapons, including David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and an emerging John Brown. 
Palmer's concussion is the main topic of this matchup, but the 49ers just lost the heart-and-soul of their defense with Pro Bowl linebacker NaVorro Bowman injured last week and out for the year. The 49ers aren't likely to have injured defensive lineman DeForest Buckner either. Those injuries really weaken the 49ers' run defense.
Johnson could run wild here and the threat of him should open up play-action for Stanton. The short practice week hurts the 49ers even more than the Cardinals because of these key defensive injuries and the 49ers' defense being on the field an average of eight more plays per game above the league average due to Chip Kelly's up-tempo offensive pace. 
The Cardinals also are well-coached on defense. They bring a variety of blitz packages and can take advantage of Blaine Gabbert's jittery pocket presence and lack of downfield receiving weapons. 

This should be an exciting, high-scoring game. But Western Kentucky is the superior team with a stronger defense, better special teams and more weapons offensively than Louisiana Tech. 
The Hilltoppers have proven dominant in Conference USA winning 13 league games in a row. Their average victory margin in conference since the start of last season is by four touchdowns.
Both teams are well coached. Louisiana Tech's Trent Taylor is the best playmaker, but Western Kentucky has more receiving depth. Western Kentucky also has a dangerous returner in Nacarius Fant and a strong-legged kicker in Skyler Simcox.  
Western Kentucky is battled-tested, too, having played Alabama and Vanderbilt during the past four weeks. 

Sure, on paper, it looks like these two teams will have trouble breaking the six-run barrier with a pitching matchup of lefty Madison Bumgarner versus righty Noah Syndergaard. 
But there are a number of factors that point to this low total going over. It's not too much to ask either of these two teams to put up three runs apiece, which would be enough to push this above the total. 
The Giants have scored at least three runs in seven of their last eight games. They've faced some excellent starters, too, during this span, including Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto and Rich Hill. San Francisco has gone over six of the past seven times it has faced a righty starter. The Giants square off against Syndergaard without a weak hitter in the lineup as Bumgarner is one of the best-hitting pitchers in baseball. 
The Mets were able to overcome devastating injuries to three of their key young pitchers by playing long-ball smacking a franchise-record 218 homers. That was the second-most in the National League. Bumgarner wasn't that sharp either down the stretch surrendering four or more runs in four of his last nine starts.The over cashed in seven of his last 10 starts. The Mets also have gone above the total seven of the past eight times they've faced a southpaw starter. The over has cashed five of the last six times Bumgarner has opposed the Mets. 
San Francisco also has a shaky bullpen. It blew five ninth-inning leads in September. 

I'm attracted to the 'dog here. The Orioles led the majors in homers, are playing better than the Blue Jays and hold a bullpen edge. I'd rate the starting pitching matchup of Chris Tillman versus Marcus Stroman nearly even with maybe a slight edge again to the Orioles.
Baltimore is 7-2 in its last nine games. Toronto is 13-16 since the start of September. Since then the Blue Jays have averaged an AL-worst 3.6 runs per game. The Orioles paced the majors with 253 homers. 
Tillman posted a 2.38 ERA in two starts at Rogers Centre. Tillman has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts. He's backed by the best closer in the American League, if not all of baseball, in Zach Britton, who was a perfect 47-for-47 in save chances. Britton made seven appearances against the Blue Jays this season holding them scoreless in eight innings. 
Stroman last won on Aug. 14. The Orioles just beat him this past Thursday getting four runs on nine hits and two walks in seven-plus innings. Toronto's bullpen hasn't looked good. Closer Roberto Osuna threw 46 pitches during the weekend so fatigue is a factor. 

Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better.
So I'm locking into this point spread now as I envision it to go higher during the week when more people start playing attention.
The Vikings are a physical, disciplined team with excellent coaching and a defense that is becoming more dominant week to week, which isn't surprising given the tremendous talent at each position. The Vikings have held the Titans to 16 points, the Packers to 14 points and Panthers to 10 points. 
Since Mike Zimmer came on board - and hiring a top level staff to assist him - the Vikings have covered an amazing 75 percent of their games going 27-9 ATS! 
Minnesota is better off with the more accurate and downfield attacker Sam Bradford at quarterback than it was when Teddy Bridgewater was under center. Adrian Peterson's injury is overrated. He was averaging 1.6 yards per carry. The Vikings are fine with Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata replacing Peterson. They did the job two years ago when Peterson missed the season and are better receiving targets out of the backfield than Peterson. 
The Giants have upgraded their defense, but it doesn't compare to Minnesota's. The Giants remain turnover and penalty-prone. Ben McAdoo can't compare to Zimmer as a head coach. The Giants just lost Shane Vereen for the season further weakening an already well below average ground attack. 

Look for the Steelers offense and Ben Roethlisberger to pick up now that Le'Veon Bell has returned to the lineup. Not only is Bell a top-five running back, but he also could be the team's second-best receiver behind only the incomparable Antonio Brown. 
The Chiefs have gone against weak quarterbacks the past two weeks in Brock Osweiler and erratic Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kansas City only has three sacks on the season, missing its top pass rusher Justin Houston. The Chiefs' lack of cornerback depth should get exposed here as the Steelers plan on sometimes putting Bell in the slot. 
Kansas City has some underrated playmakers and expects to have Jamaal Charles for the first time this season. The Steelers have just one sack and have yielded 384, 412 and 426 yards in each of their three games with the yardage numbers going up in every game. The Eagles lit up Pittsburgh for 34 points, their season-high. The Eagles are coached by Doug Pederson, who for the previous three seasons was Andy Reid's offensive coordinator in Kansas City. The Chiefs run a similar West Coast offense to the Eagles with a lot of misdirection plays and screen passes. 
The Steelers are weak in the secondary with injuries and will be minus key linebacker Ryan Shazier, who is their top coverage linebacker. 

Let's not overthink this game. Tampa Bay is 3-15 SU, 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Buccaneers don't know how to beat a good opponent such as the Broncos and this isn't a good fundamental matchup either for them.
Yet the oddsmaker has made a short line because the Broncos are playing their second consecutive road game and Tampa Bay is off a bad loss.
So what. Not only do the Broncos have a vastly superior defensive edge, but their coaching, experience and savvy are major advantages, too. 
Jameis Winston has great potential being in his second season. But he still forces things versus aggressive defenses. The Buccaneers have a minus 6 turnover ratio and are facing the top defense in the NFL. 
Denver has not allowed more than 20 points during any of its last eight games. The Broncos are giving up an average of 17.2 points per game during this span - and they've played better offenses than the Buccaneers in this time frame: Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Panthers twice, Bengals twice and Colts.
The Broncos' pass defense is first-rate. The Broncos can be attacked on the ground, but the Buccaneers are missing their best running back, Doug Martin. 
Trevor Siemian is coming off his finest game as a pro. That was last week on the road against the Bengals, who have a much better defense than the Buccaneers.  

Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. 
The Panthers actually could be better offensively than a year ago with Kelvin Benjamin in the lineup. Carolina is stepping way down in class defensively taking on the Falcons. The Panthers are at their best when they can bully and dominate the lines of scrimmage. They couldn't do that versus the Broncos and Vikings. They can against the finesse Falcons.
Carolina whipped the Falcons, 38-0, at home last season. But the Panthers won't forget losing 20-13 at Atlanta last season for their lone regular season defeat. This is a revenge spot for the Panthers and they catch the Falcons on a short week.
Even with the Falcons beating the defenseless Saints this past Monday, Atlanta still has covered just four of its last 15 games. Second-year head Falcons coach Dan Quinn hasn't been able to fix a leaky defense, nor upgrade a weak pass rush. 
Matt Ryan is having a big season so far and does play better in a dome setting, which this is. But the Falcons' two top wider receivers are both less than 100 percent. 

This total is lined well shortt of what it should be. Western Michigan edged Central Michigan, 41-39, last season in a game that had a combined 80 points scored. The offenses are just as potent this season. 
Western Michigan is 4-0 for the first time since 1994. The well-balanced Broncos feature an excellent quarterback, Zach Terrell, an outstanding wide receiver in Corey Davis, who is averaging 16.5 yards per catch, and three good running backs. The Broncos had a record-setting offense last season and those key players are all back.
The Broncos already have beaten a pair of Big Ten teams - Illinois and Northwestern - and rank 15th in the country in scoring at 43.8 points per game. They are 39th in yards gained.
Central Michigan is no slouch either at 3-1 and with a Week 2 upset victory against Oklahoma State, 30-27. The Chippewas have a big-time quarterback in Cooper Rush and strong receiving depth. They rate 34th in the nation in scoring at 39.5 points a game and are 35th in yards gained. 
Both team's defenses have improved, but not nearly enough to hold this score down. Central Michigan ranks 69th in pass defense while Western Michigan is 59th in pass defense.

Tommy Armstrong is playing as good, if not better, than any quarterback in the Big Ten. The dual-threat senior has thrown for 931 yards, rushed for four touchdowns and has just one interception. Thanks to Armstrong, the Cornhuskers put up 43 points versus Fresno State, 52 against Wyoming, 35 versus Oregon and 556 yards against Northwestern last week. 
Armstrong has an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Always a feared runner, Armstrong is averaging a career-high 8.78 yards per attempt on the ground. I see the Cornhuskers doing the job against an Illinois defense that hasn't played well in its last two games yielding nearly 500 rushing yards. 
Illinois, however, has a pair of dependable running backs who can open things up for quarterback Wes Lunt. 

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in the nation in pass defense. Boston College coach Steve Addazio already has stated his intentions to have his team run the ball a lot. That's another plus for the under. 
Note, too, that the Eagles have been a big under team when meeting non-league opponents. The under has cashed 27 of the last 36 times the Eagles have played a non-ACC foe. 

Boston College has Clemson on deck so a full, all-out effort can't be a natural given. Chances are the Eagles could let up if building a safe lead.

Buffalo has gotten better since turning to redshirt freshman quarterback Tyree Jackson, who has yet to be sacked. The Bulls rank No. 2 in pass defense. Boston College will attack via the ground, which is a plus for a big underdog.

Now that Notre Dame has hit rock bottom expect a strong performance here against a weak defense. 
Brian Kelly has cleaned house and put everyone on notice. It's one thing to lose to Texas and Michigan State. But a loss to Duke last week as a three-touchdown favorite has caused this stir. 
Notre Dame's problem isn't offense. DeShone Kizer is moving the ball and he's behind a very talented offensive line. Kizer should have a big game operating against Syracuse's vulnerable secondary. The Orangemen have allowed 131 points in their last three games against Louisville, South Florida and Connecticut, a weak offensive team.  
The Irish have too many athletes to stay this down on defense. There's a huge class difference here and the Irish won't lack motivation. Being on the road for the first time in four weeks actually is a good thing for the Irish because it forces them to focus and get away from all the criticism on the home front. 

The Yankees were riding high after sweeping three games from the Red Sox. But that high is now a low after the Yankees were eliminated from playoff contention last night
This is what Yankees manager Joe Girardi was quoted as saying following that loss: "It's not what we wanted. It's pretty quiet in there. Probably the quietest I've ever seen after a win. I think guys realize it came to an end tonight. It's difficult. There were some good things that happened, but again we fell short and we didn't have a successful season."
I don't see the Yankees being up for this game. The Orioles are the better team and in the underdog role. That's enticing. Baltimore is playing hard for its playoff berth and playing well winning five of six. 
The pitching matchup is Yovani Gallardo versus Michael Pineda. Gallardo pitched well in his last outing holding the Diamondbacks to two runs on six hits in six innings. A key for the Yankees has been phenomenal rookie Gary Sanchez. However, he's coming off an 0-for-5 game with four strikeouts and has only one hit in his last 19 at bats. 
The Yankees opened as favorites because they're home and Pineda has been pitching well. He is 6-11 on the season with a 4.68 ERA, though, and has made a career-high 31 starts. I don't think his heart will be in this game. 

There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. 
Miami was life and death with the Browns at home this past Sunday. It took three missed field goals by the Browns, including one at the end of regulation, that allowed the Dolphins to escape with an overtime victory. 
Cincinnati is one of the best all around teams in the NFL. The Bengals protect their home-field well, too, only losing five times during their last 25 games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals are off a disappointing home loss, though, to the Broncos. So there is little chance that they'll take the Dolphins for granted, or look past them. Even with that loss to Denver, Cincinnati still is 13-5-2 ATS in its past 20 games. 
The Bengals' defense has been solid, rather than outstanding. But look for the Bengals' defensive level to be raised a notch with the return from suspension of star linebacker and defensive leader Vontaze Burfict. 
The Dolphins are weak defensively in their back seven and could be without all three of their starting linebackers. Miami is vulnerable to A.J. Green and in big trouble offensively with their top runner, Arian Foster, out again and a cluster injury problem in the offensive line. 
Miami very well could be starting third-string center Kraig Urbik. Starting center Mike Pouncey is out at least another week with a hip injury and backup Anthony Steen suffered a high ankle sprain against the Browns. Also out for the Dolphins is starting tight end Jordan Cameron with a concussion. 
The combination of the Bengals' talent edge, home field advantage that is magnified by a short week and the many Miami injuries make the Bengals a solid play as they should win by double-digits. 

This is short enough price to fade the A's, who are starting Sonny Gray. The A's aren't expecting much from Gray, who has battled assorted arm injuries this season and has a 5.67 ERA. He may only pitch one inning having last pitched seven weeks ago. The A's just want to give him a little work before next season.

The Angels are playing well winning six of their last seven. The A's are merely playing the streak out losing seven of their last eight. The Angels have beaten the A's five of the past six times they've hosted them. 

I give Sonny Gray a lot of credit working his way back to make a start before the end of the season. Gray, though, has been terrible this season and hasn't pitched since Aug. 6. He's going to be rusty and on a strict pitch count, too. Gary has dealt with a straight right forearm and an inflamed elbow. He has a 5.74 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
The purpose of Gary's start is to get some work before next year. The A's aren't expecting much. 
Angels starter Alex Meyer is a rookie who has flashed but remains very inconsistent. He has a 5.02 ERA in his last three starts giving up eight walks in 14 1/3 innings during this span.
These two teams have a strong over bias when playing in Anaheim as the over is 16-4-1 during the past 21 meetings. The A's have gone above the total in seven of their last nine away contests 
The over also has cashed 60 percent of the time during the three years Tom Woodring has been behind the plate. He's slated to be the home plate ump. 

I like the Mariners to beat the Astros here. The pitching matchup is James Paxton versus Doug Fister, who has become the weak part of the Astros rotation.
Paxton has been sharp lately with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 27-to-3 strikeouts-to-walk ratio this month. Seattle is playing well on the road winning nine of its last 11 away contests.
Fister may be at the end of the line. Houston has lost the last six times he's pitched. Fister has compiled a 9.35 ERA during this six-game span. He has a 4.64 lifetime ERA versus Seattle, including a 6.86 ERA in four starts this season. 

Sitting one game behind the Giants for the second wild-card spot in the National League, the Cardinals desperately need to win this home game. The Reds embarrassed the Cardinals, 15-2, on Monday night. 
I see the Cardinals coming back today. So does the oddsmaker because he's opened the Cardinals more than a 2-to-1 favorite to win. So to get around this high juice while keeping the Cardinals in play I'm making this a run line play. The Cardinals have won by more than one run during nine of their last 11 victories. They have the right motivation and pitching matchup to win big here.
Reds starter rookie Robert Stephenson returned to the majors early this month. He's made four starts since then and hasn't won. He's given up four runs in each of his last three starts going less than four innings in two of them. Stephenson has a 5.59 ERA. The Reds' bullpen ranks among the worst in baseball. 
The Cardinals are going with veteran Adam Wainwright, who is pitching on extra rest. St. Louis is 6-0 the past six times Wainwright has pitched on six days rest. 

Given the tragic circumstances of Jose Fernandez passing away on Sunday I don't see how the Marlins can fully concentrate on baseball so fast. The Mets don't have that luxury. They are in a pennant race. They are deeply saddened by Fernandez's untimely death, but he was not their teammate and meant nothing to their organization while he was a key figure in Miam's franchise.
This game is in Miami so it's going to be even more difficult for the Marlins to focus. I like the Mets to win here no matter what the pitching matchup is, but the scheduled pitchers make the odds even greater for a New York victory.
Youngster Adam Conley is slated to go for the Marlins. He has close to a 4.00 ERA and control problems with a 1.41 WHIP. He hasn't started since Aug. 13 due to a finger injury on his pitching hand. He's likely to be on a pitch count bringing the Marlins' vulnerable middle relief in to play. 
The Mets are going with 43-year-old pro Bartolo Colon, who has the experience and savvy to get through what is sure to be a highly emotional evening. Colon has been pitching brilliantly during the last two months with a 2.61 ERA in August and 1.75 ERA so far this month. 

I believe the Bears will respond better with Brian Hoyer under center than Jay Cutler, who isn't a popular teammate. The Bears have more talent than their 0-2 record indicates.
The Bears did suffer multiple injuries on defense in their Monday night upset loss to the Eagles, but Dallas also is thin defensively due to injuries and multiple suspensions. 
The Cowboys' offense is limited by rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, who hasn't proven he can scare defenses when throwing downfield. Dallas is 2-14 the past 16 times Tony Romo hasn't played. 
The Bears should play extremely hard with their season already in deep peril at 0-2 and off an embarrassing Monday night home loss. 
The Cowboys have a terrible track record as a  home favorite failing to cover 12 of the past 14 times in that role going back to the middle of 2013. 

The Eagles have looked surprisingly good so far. But look at whom they have beaten - the winless Browns and winless Bears. 
Now the Eagles are stepping way up facing one of the top seven teams in the NFL. 
Ben Roethlisberger leads the NFL in touchdown passes. He can - and should - easily exploit a short-handed Eagles secondary that is minus cornerback Leodis McKelvin. The Eagles have looked better than they are defensively by facing Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler/Brian Hoyer. Roethlisberger gets back his No. 2 wideout, Markus Wheaton, to go with Antonio Brown. The Steelers have two solid other wide receivers. 
Carson Wentz will be going against the best defense he's seen so far. He won't have tight end Zach Ertz either. The Eagles need to set up Wentz by churning out rushing yards. Wentz has never played from behind before. The chances are strong that happens here. The Eagles don't have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers' high-powered attack. 
The Steelers have been solid as chalk covering 10 the last 13 times when favored. 

The Brewers are playing their final home game of the season so motivation shouldn't be lacking. 
Milwaukee is 13-9 this month and going with Wily Peralta, who has pitched much better after a stint in the minors. He has a 26-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last four starts.
The Reds are going with Brandon Finnegan, who has hit the wall lasting just 2 1/3 innings during his last start. The Reds plan on shutting down Finnegan after this start. Finnegan, who has thrown 167 innings this season, has struggled versus the Brewers with a 4.15 ERA. He had never pitched more than 25 innings in the majors before this season. 

The Dolphins are 0-2 and playing their first home game. They are in a kill spot. Except for a bad first half against New England, the Dolphins' defense has looked solid especially their front. 

The Browns are forced to go with third-string rookie quarterback Cody Kessler because of injuries to Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown. Kessler isn't nearly ready. He looked bad during preseason - overmatched - and he's not helped by the Browns' offensive line being much inferior to the Dolphins' defensive front.

The Browns also may be without their best defensive back, Joe Haden. 

Miami's offense should pick up having gotten more in tune with offensive guru Adam Gase's system. The Dolphins step way down in class having opened on the road against Seattle and New England. Those two teams can make any team look bad. 

The Browns also aren't used to playing in South Florida kind of heat. Look for their depth-shy team to wear down in the second half.

I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins.
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money eight of the last 11 times. 
The Giants are 2-0 having eked out last-minute victories against the Cowboys and Saints by a combined four points. New York's defense is much improved from a year ago courtesy of a $200 million spending spree. But it's far from dominant and the Giants offense has yet to impress averaging 18 points a game. The Giants have a below average ground attack.
Kirk Cousins isn't Pro Bowl caliber. But he's also better than what he has shown so far this season. He has excellent receiving weapons - especially with a matchup of Jordan Reed against the Giants mediocre linebackers - and has received excellent pass protection. The Giants have a below average pass rush.
The Redskins have moved the ball they've just had trouble putting up touchdowns in the red zone. That should change with better play-calling, including not overusing fade routes that don't work. 
Josh Norman shores up the Redskins' secondary and the coaching staff finally has figured out to move Norman around. That means he's likely to be shadowing Odell Beckham Jr. Norman got inside Beckham's head last season. He's probably the cornerback that Beckham least likes to face. 

The Packers' offense will pick up at home where Aaron Rodgers and Co. are more comfortable. Green Bay opened with its first two games on the road. Jordy Nelson should be close to full strength now that we're in Week 3.
The Lions will be missing their two best defensive players, pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah and linebacker DeAndre Levy. 
Detroit can put up points with its no-huddle offense. The Lions also catch a huge break in that the Packers will be without three of their top four defensive players as out are Clay Matthews, Sam Shields and Morgan Burnett. The Packers' defensive front seven could be especially thin, too, as Letroy Guion and Datone Jones are doubtful. 

This is my total of the week. Punting can't be overlooked here. Neither team has a strong punting game. Air Force can especially exploit a short field. The Falcons lead the nation in rush yards per game and are fifth in total offense. They will be well rested, too, following a bye week.

Air Force scored 48 points on Georgia State in its last game two weeks ago. By contrast, Wisconsin managed only 23 points against Georgia State and that was in Madison. 
Utah State has capable skill position players in dual threat quarterback Kent Myers and running backs Devante Mays and Tonny Lindsey.
Both teams have strong kick returners.

Both teams have a strong history of going over the total in Mountain West Conference action. Air Force has gone above the total seven times in a row in conference, while the over has cashed nine of the last 10 times Utah State has played a Mountain West opponent. 

Don't look for a game like last year's 44-41 shootout won by Memphis. Bowling Green won't be able to keep pace this year. The Falcons are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. The Falcons have not received good quarterback play and haven't decided on a full-time starter. 
Memphis should put up its share of points,but the Tigers are far from perfect offensively. They gave up five sacks to Kansas last week and have a much bigger game next week when they play Mississippi on the road. So the Tigers likely will be pulling starters if they build a big lead. 

I haven't been impressed with Baylor, which has played weak competition and didn't cover any of its three games. Facing Northwestern State, SMU and Rice is not a good non-conference buildup to stepping up against Oklahoma State. It's not stepping out to say the Bears played the weakest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team.
Baylor's great defensive stats are skewed by this easy schedule. Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph and and wide receiver James Washington can hurt any defense. An added plus for the Cowboys would be if safety Orion Stewart can't play after injuring his ribs against Rice last week and if cornerback Ryan Reid has to miss a second straight week after sustaining a high ankle sprain versus SMU. 
I believe Baylor quarterback Seth Russell is a real downgrade from recent Baylor quarterbacks. The Bears have had to endure a lot of uncertainty and a coaching change due to recent scandals. It has hurt their recruiting. This is their first big test in the post Art Briles era and I can't see the Bears winning by more than a touchdown against this high quality opponent that has a real chip on its shoulder from getting ripped off against Central Michigan two weeks ago on an extra play that shouldn't have been allowed. 

Take good early value by playing this line now as I see it climbing past three touchdowns. New Mexico State can't keep up with Troy. The Aggies got buried by a score of 52-7 last year by the Trojans - and that was in Las Cruces. 

This is the Aggies' third road game in four weeks and second in two weeks after playing at SEC foe Kentucky this past Saturday. They don't have the defense and depth to hang here. 

Mighty Michigan can nearly cover this total by itself averaging 53 points per game. The Wolverines host Penn State, which is giving up nearly 35 points per game during its past two games and is extremely thin at linebacker. 
Already missing two linebackers, the Nittany Lions lost perhaps their best defensive player, senior linebacker Nyeem Wartman-White, to a season-ending knee injury last week. Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight has established himself with three consecutive strong games. The Wolverines will be looking to go over the total for an eighth straight time at home. 
Penn State should be able to put up its share of points against a Michigan defense that yielded four touchdowns to Colorado at home last week. The Nittany Lions have a pair of potential sophomore stars on offense in quarterback Trace McSorley, who is proving to be an adequate replacement for Christian Hackenberg, and running back Saquon Barkley.

People are focusing on Notre Dame having already lost twice. But Duke is way down this season with a terrible loss to Wake Forest and then Northwestern. The Blue Devils aren't 100 percent healthy on defense and lack the playmakers to keep up with a frustrated Irish squad in need of a wipeout performance. 
Now Duke, which is full of underclassmen, has to try to step up against Notre Dame. It's not going to happen. The Blue Devils haven't seen this kind of offensive talent. Notre Dame, on the other hand, gets to drop way down in class having already gone up against Texas and Michigan State. 
This is a matchup where laying three touchdowns is cheap.

Pittsburgh has triple revenge having lost the past three years to North Carolina, never by more than seven points during this span. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS when playing with triple revenge. 
Another favorable spot for the Panthers is drawing the Tar Heels with a look-ahead road game against Florida State the following week while they finally get a breather hosting down-in-the-dumps Marshall. 
Matchup-wise, the Panthers' outstanding running attack, led by James Conner, can control the ball and gauge a Tar Heels rush defense that ranks 106th giving up more than 226 yards per game on the ground. North Carolina just surrendered 495 yards, 28 first downs and 28 points to James Madison, an FCS team, last week. 
Pittsburgh's defense has been disappointing up to this point. But I trust Pat Narduzzi, one of the most respected defensive minds in the country, to fix things. 

The wheels are coming off USC under Clay Helton. The Trojans are 1-4 since he was named permanent coach during last season. The Trojans have bad chemistry and face a Utah squad big on revenge after losing to the Trojans, 42-24, last year. The Utes were 6-0 entering that game, ranked seventh in the country. 
The Trojans have some talented playmakers, but they're wasted in a dysfunctional program. Playing a day earlier than usual and at always-tough Rice-Eccles Stadium are big disadvantages for the Trojans. 
USC was pounded by Alabama losing by 46 points. The Trojans already have made a quarterback change. I can't see the Trojans having the necessary focus and discipline to win this Pac-12 road game. They are off a bad road loss to Stanford, a very physical opponent, and now will be playing away from home for the third time in four weeks. The Trojans have failed to cover in 15 of their last 21 away matchups. 
Utah ranks No. 2 in the nation in sacks with 15 and is No. 8 nationally in pass-efficiency defense. The Utes are balanced on offense and strong on special teams. They are in much better shape mentally and physically for this game than USC.

Look for a shootout here as Dan LeFevour has done a good job filling in for Ricky Ray for the Argonauts. Toronto is averaging 31 points in LeFevour's two starts during the past two games. 
Ottawa ranks first in total yards and passing yards thanks to quarterback Trevor Harris and four receivers who are all averaging more than 11 yards per reception. Harris can take advantage of Toronto's defense, which has injuries in its back seven. The Redblacks also could get a boost from new starting tailback Mossis Madu Jr.
Toronto is giving up nearly 30 points a game, ranking second-to-last in scoring defense. The over has cashed in five of the Argonauts' last six games. 

Much is made of legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's great record against rookie quarterbacks. Texans coach Bill O'Brien doesn't have a shabby record either in this regard. His Texans are 6-0 when facing a first-year quarterback.
Look for that mark to reach 7-0 after Thursday's Texans-Patriots game. 
As great a coach as Bill Belichick is - and there is none better - he's extremely limited by the timing of this matchup even though the Patriots are home. Jimmy Garoppolo isn't going to be able to go leaving Belichick no choice but to toss rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett into the fire. 
Brissett isn't nearly ready to start an NFL game and Belichick and his brilliant staff don't have enough time to coach him up with this being a Thursday game. The Patriots may again be without Rob Gronkowski, their top playmaker. New England has to heavily rely on power back LeGarrette Blount, who is entering this short week having carried the ball 29 times this past Sunday. So he could get tired early. 
Perhaps Belichick could dodge this bad combination of quarterback injury/Thursday game if his team was playing a lesser foe. They aren't, though. The Texans are a playoff team with an improved offense and the NFL's third-ranked defense. The Texans lead the NFL in sacks and J.J. Watt is just now starting to come around. 
I'm not a big fan of Brock Osweiler, but he's an improvement on what the Texans have had at quarterback. DeAndre Hopkins is an upper tier wide receiver and first-round rookie Will Fuller has looked good. The Texans' offensive line showed signs of coming around in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs last Sunday. Lamar Miller is an above average back and the Patriots give up 4.6 yards per rush attempt. 
New England's pass rush is down with Rob Ninkovich suspended and Dont'a Hightower perhaps missing another game due to a knee injury.
The Texans know the Patriots extremely well despite being a non-division opponent. That's because they have a number of ex-Patriots as coaches and players, including O'Brien, Mike Vrabel and Vince Wilfork. 
The timing is wrong here for the Patriots. This is the Texans' chance to shine. 

Zack Greinke is having a down season especially compared to the monster year he had in 2015. But the prideful Greinke should win here against a foe he has dominated. Greinke pitches better away from Chase Field, too. Arizona is 9-3 in Greinke's 12 road starts. One of those losses was the last time Greinke faced the Padres. That was last month. Greinke left after seven innings leading, 4-2. 
Greinke is 7-1 against San Diego in 15 starts with a 1.96 ERA. The Padres are batting .189 against him. 
Padres starter Luis Perdomo, a Rule 5 pick forced to stay in the majors or the Padres would lose him, has been very consistently lately. He has a high upside, but is inconsistent and has a 5.68 ERA on the season in 18 starts. 
The Diamondbacks are trying to avoid an embarrassing sweep especially since the Padres have now passed them in the standings. San Diego is 7-19 following a victory and three games under .500 at home. 

This isn't exactly a marquee matchup. But the price is right to get involved with the Diamondbacks. There's a reason the oddsmaker opened Arizona a road favorite.
Archie Bradley has a high ceiling and has been pitching better. I much prefer him over Paul Clemens. 
This is what Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale was quoted as saying about Bradley, a right-hander: "Archie has had his best stuff the last couple of times out. Mechanically, he is much better. His fastball velocity has been up, his breaking ball has been good and his changeup has been working for him."
The Padres have lost 13 of the past 19 times they've faced a righty starter.
Clemens is 2-5 with a 4.84 ERA in 13 appearances for the Padres. He's made nine starts, never going more than 5 1/3 innings. He is not a high innings pitcher and the Padres carry a high bullpen fatigue rating.  
San Diego also is minus one of its better players as infielder Yangervis Solarte is away from the team following his wife's death from cancer this past weekend. 

Seattle is in near must-win territory here at home trailing by three games for a wild-card berth. I see value to the Mariners opening as underdogs with Hisahi Iwakuma pitching. 
Iwakuma had a solid first four months before an August slump. He's back on track now allowing three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Seattle is 8-2 in his last 10 starts at Safeco Park and 15-7 in his last 22 overall starts. Iwakuma is 4-1 career-wise versus Toronto with a 2.50 ERA. 
The Mariners have won 13 of 16 times as a home 'dog this season. 
Toronto is favored because J.A. Happ is on the mound. He's having a career-year, but regression is due. He's also 0-2 in his starts at Seattle. Current Mariners are batting .330 against Happ.  

This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans.
Wentz, though, went against maybe the worst defense in the NFL - the Browns. He was home, too. Now he makes his road debut and it's on the Monday night national stage against a much-improved, well-coached Bears defense.
Wentz has an aging offensive line and below average wide receivers. He's not likely to have his security blanket either as tight end Zach Ertz has a serious rib injury and is not likely to play. I see Wentz struggling in this spot.
Jay Cutler has physical tools, but is not an elite quarterback. We know that. But Cutler will do better this year with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. I rate Jeffery as the eighth-best wide receiver in the NFL. His presence is huge for Cutler's confidence and the Bears offense. The Eagles secondary can't cover him. 
Cutler is at his best when he's not facing adversity. He won't have to deal with that in this matchup. 

It's easy to think offense when talking Falcons and Raiders. The Raiders nipped the Saints, 35-34, in Week 1 for a combined 69 points while the Falcons lost 31-24 to the Buccaneers for a combined 55 points.
So it's no surprise the oddsmaker has hung a high total on this matchup. 
But there is more than meets the eye here. Both teams are coached by men with strong defensive backgrounds - Dan Quinn and Jack Del Rio. Each coach is in his second year so their defensive systems should be kicking in soon. I'm not suggesting either team's defense is first-rate - because they certainly aren't - but they will be improved. The Raiders defense is loaded with high draft picks. 
So I see this total being overadjusted based on perception and opening week results. The Raiders put up their points against the worst defense in the NFC and were playing on a fast track. 
Matt Ryan has a history of playing better at home and inside domes on a carpet surface. This is a road game for the Falcons on grass. Ryan has averaged 1.3 touchdown passes in his last 16 away contests compared to 1.7 touchdown passes at home. The Falcons play at a slower pace on the road. It's a factor why the under cashed in seven of their eight road matchups last season, including the last six. 
Ryan's two best receivers, Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, both aren't 100 percent because of ankle injuries. 

The Marlins have motivation not just to stay in the wild-card race, but avoid an embarrassing sweep against the Phillies.

The Marlins also have a pitching matchup here that should be priced higher. Veteran Andrew Casher knows how to pitch against the Phillies going 3-1 with a 2.11 ERA in 11 games versus them during his career. 
The Phillies are pitching a prospect who I don't believe is ready to be in a big league rotation, Alec Asher. His numbers are good in the majors this season - unlike last year -, but his metics say otherwise. He's been extremely lucky so far - and I think that catches up to him here. 
Going back to last season, the Phillies are 2-7 in Asher's last nine starts. 

The Twins are trying to avoid losing 100 games in a season. That hasn't happened to them since 1982. Their starting pitching today, Kyle Gibson, pitches better away from Target Center where he is 5-2 on the season. 
But the major handicap to this play is a fade on the Mets. Jacob deGrom is the latest Mets star pitcher to go down. That puts unheralded Gabriel Ynoa into the starting rotation today. He has a 15.19 ERA in six relief appearances, which got him send down. He last pitched on Aug. 27 for Triple-A Las Vegas going two innings. He isn't going to be around long and the Mets have some bullpen fatigue issues. 
The Mets also have four reserve players in their starting lineup. 

I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher.  
The Panthers hold edges in all areas against the 49ers. Not just minor edges either. The Panthers have all-pros at many positions. The 49ers have below average starters at many positions.  
The 49ers' problems are made more difficult by the scheduling dynamics. The Panthers have had nearly 1 1/2 weeks to sit around stewing about blowing a lead to the Broncos in the opening Thursday night game. Cam Newton is going to have a much easier time against the 49ers defense. 
The 49ers are fat and happy after whipping the Rams at home this past Monday night. Now they have to make a cross-country journey on a short week. Carolina is 19-7-1 in its last 27 home games. 

Tennessee is a much improved team. The oddsmaker is a beat slow in realizing this based on the line. 
The Titans should have beaten the Vikings in Week 1. They led by 10 at halftime, outgained the Vikings and their defense didn't allow a touchdown. 
Unfortunately for the Titans they self-destructed. The Lions are noted chokers themselves. They are likely to be missing their star linebacker, DeAndre Levy, and are very weak defending tight ends having surrendered the most touchdowns last year to tight ends. Detroit yielded three tight end touchdowns to the Colts last week. The Titans have one of the best tight ends in Delaine Walker, who led all tight ends in receptions last year. 
Detroit has a huge lookahead game, too, facing the Packers in Wisconsin next Sunday. The Lions lack the maturity and overall talent to cover a margin in this spread range against an under-the-radar improved foe that has a pair of good runners, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. A strong ground attack is pivotal for an underdog on the road. 

I like Mark Dantonio in this underdog role. The spot is good, too, for the Spartans.
Notre Dame lost a lot of defensive talent either through used-up eligibility or suspensions. Michigan State is the healthier team and has had two weeks to game plan and get senior quarterback Tyler O'Connor ready after being idle last week. 
O'Connor should be ready for his moment having spent the past three years backing up Connor Cook. 
Michigan State is 9-3 the past 12 times it has taken on a ranked opponent. The Spartans are 6-2-1 ATS as a road 'dog winning five of those games straight-up. 

I haven't forgotten about last year's game when Georgia won, 9-6, holding the Tigers to a season-low 164 yards of total offense. 
While I don't expect so few points to be scored in this year's game, I do strongly believe oddsmakers have set too high of a total.
Missouri is better defensively - particularly in the defensive line - than it has showed. Georgia's offensive line has been struggling, too. It was embarrassing for the Bulldogs linemen not to be able to get a push against Nicholls State, an FCS team. The Bulldogs haven't completely settled on their starting quarterback either. 
Missouri's offense is overrated. The Tigers played Eastern Michigan last week racking up 61 points. They had scored only 11 points versus West Virginia opening week. 
These are a couple of under teams, too. The under has cashed in 14 of Georgia's last 17 games while the Tigers have gone under in 12 of their last 15 home contests. 

The value is excellent here for the Brewers. Jake Arrieta hasn't had the season he had last year. He has just two quality starts in his last six outings. Zach Davies has been solid for the Brewers. He's working on a string of four quality starts in a row.

The Cubs are in a major letdown mode. The Brewers have their best lineup going today, while the Cubs are starting five reserve players. 

New Mexico State is a bottom-three Sun Belt team. Kentucky is an SEC school with far better athletes. New Mexico State has never beaten an SEC team in 19 tries. 
Not only is there a huge talent gap - three touchdown's worth - but the spot is right for a Kentucky blowout.
New Mexico State is coming off a huge 32-31 upset win over arch-rival New Mexico last week as 9 1/2-point 'dogs. That win was emotional and physically draining for the Aggies. New Mexico State is 0-4 SU and ATS the past four years the week after playing the Lobos losing to the spread by an average of more than 10 points. That's a direct reflection on the seniors. 
The Aggies also have a far bigger game on deck when they open Sun Belt play against Troy. 
Kentucky is in desperate need of a victory, the more lopsided the better. This is a kill spot for the Wildcats and I expect them to take full advantage. 

Central Michigan is going to gets its points against a UNLV defense that doesn't tackle well and has only two sacks in two games. The Chippewas have an outstanding quarterback, Cooper Rush. He's a four-year starter and the active leader in passing yards with 9,952.
The Rebels couldn't put any pressure on UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen last week in a 42-21 loss and I don't see them doing it here on the road again.
The Rebels can run the ball, though, with Lexington Thomas. The Rebels have become an over team under second-year coach Tony Sanchez going above the number in 16 of their last 21 games.