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All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-31-17	Hornets v. Clippers -2.5		98-106	Win	100	7 h 56 m	Show
The Clippers are the superior team with Blake Griffin back and are home. LA is on a 9-1-1 against the spread run. The Hornets are coming off a shocking upset of the Warriors at Golden State just two days ago. Even with that victory, the Hornets are just 5-13 in their past 18 games. Dwight Howard has played well for Charlotte, but he won't do much against defensive whiz DeAndre Jordan.
12-31-17	Utah v. Oregon State +1		66-64	Loss	-102	10 h 16 m	Show
Oregon State is extremely tough at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have covered in their last four meetings against Utah. They are 11-2 against the Utes in their last 13 home games versus them. The Utes are 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. I don't see Utah pulling off back-to-back road wins in Oregon after it snapped Oregon's 25-game home win streak with a 66-56 win against the Ducks two days ago. Oregon State is 8-1 at home this season. The Beavers have won their last six at Gill Coliseum with the average victory margin being 11.8 points.
12-31-17	Cardinals v. Seahawks -7	Top	26-24	Loss	-122	133 h 30 m	Show
Seattle is one of those teams in must-win mode Sunday. If the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and Carolina defeats or ties Atlanta then Seattle makes the playoffs. The Panthers-Falcons game has been moved back to start at the same time as the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup. The Panthers are in the postseason but have motivation to beat the Falcons as they have a chance to gain a No. 2 seeding and a first-round bye with a victory. I don't see the Seahawks losing to the Cardinals, who are extremely banged-up, have performed poorly on the road and have a stiff at quarterback in Drew Stanton. Russell Wilson is in the MVP discussion having his finest season. The Cardinals have a strong run defense, but are mediocre versus the pass. Wilson has the receiving depth and mobility to be highly effective against the Cardinals defense. Arizona has has lost five of its seven road contests while going 1-6 ATS. The Cardinals' two away victories were against the 3-12 Colts in overtime and the 49ers, who were winless at the time. In their last three games, the Cardinals have managed just two touchdowns. Their offensive line is decimated with D.J. Humphries, Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati and Earl Watford all out. Seattle's defensive front seven should easily win the battle of the trenches. Arizona is down to third-stringer Kerwynn Williams as its main runner with David Johnson and Adrian Peterson out. Seattle has maybe the toughest outdoor venue for opponents in the NFL. The Seahawks have revenge for the Cardinals beating them on Christmas Eve last year that knocked them out of the No. 2 seed. The Seahawks have a special dislike for Stanton still recalling his sideline celebration from four years ago when the Cardinals defeated them at Century Link Field. The 33-year-old Stanton wasn't good then and he's not good now. He's completed only 51.2 percent of his throws, which is right in line with his career percent. He is an inaccurate, career journeyman who lacks pass protection and a ground game. The Cardinals are tied for fifth in the NFL in giveaways with 24, including turning the ball over twice during each of their last five games. The hard-hitting Seahawks defense, headed by Bobby Wagner and Earl Thomas, can take advantage. The Legion of Boom is wounded, but far from dead holding the Cowboys to no touchdowns this past Sunday despite the game being played in Dallas and Ezekiel Elliott's return from suspension.Now the Seahawks are home against a much weaker offense. The line has climbed since I released this play, but I see this as a total kill spot for the Seahawks.
12-31-17	Saints -6.5 v. Bucs		24-31	Loss	-110	33 h 23 m	Show
I don't see the Buccaneers being able to stop the Saints' balanced attack. The Bucs' defense is battered and worn down. The Saints have arguably the top running back tandem with Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. Drew Brees remains as sharp as ever on pace to set the NFL record for highest completion rate in a season at 71.9. Tampa Bay has lost five in a row. The Buccaneers have managed to hang in during this losing streak but they've been terrible through the years as a home 'dog and I just don't see a strong effort from them. Jameis Winston has had a poor year and is down several key receiver targets. Winston still isn't 100 percent due to a shoulder injury. I'm not impressed with any of Tampa Bay's running backs. The Saints' defense is much improved. New Orleans has covered 13 of its last 17 road contests. The spread is fair considering the Saints are not only the superior team, but the more motivated looking to win a division title.
12-31-17	Raiders +7.5 v. Chargers		10-30	Loss	-115	30 h 5 m	Show
The Raiders have a strong recent history of playing the Chargers tough. Oakland has won four of the past five meetings between the two teams. The Chargers' lone victory during this span came this season, 17-16, on Oct. 15. The line is inflated due to the Chargers needing to win to keep alive their playoff hopes. LA, though, really has no home field advantage. There could be as many Raiders fans in attendance. The Raiders aren't going to lie down here against this division foe. Jack Del Rio's coaching future could be on the line and the Raiders have several below-the-radar factors going their way here. One of these factors is an edge in special teams for Oakland. The Raiders have a dangerous returner in Cordarrelle Patterson and a good punter in Marquette King, who has the Raiders ranked third in net punting yards. The Chargers are below average on special teams with their inconsistent kicking game and they won't have perhaps their best special teams player in Adrian Phillips. He's out with an ankle injury. The Raiders' defense has improved since John Pagano replaced Ken North Jr. as the defensive coordinator. The Chargers have key skill position players banged-up. Tight end Hunter Henry is out with a kidney injury and Melvin Gordon may not play because of an ankle injury, which would leave third-stringer Braden Oliver as the main ball-carrier. Even if Gordon plays he'll be limited in his cutting. Gordon had 150 yards from scrimmage in the Chargers' one-point victory against the Raiders. The Chargers have a strong secondary and good pass rush. Their weakness is run defense, where they rank last in the NFL. Bilal Powell rushed for 145 yards on 19 carries against LA last Sunday and Kareem Hunt ran for 155 yards on 24 carries two weeks ago against the Chargers in helping Kansas City win, 30-13. The Raiders are going to pound away at the Chargers with Marshawn Lynch. This will make things easier for Derek Carr , who had just returned from a back injury when the team's met the first time. Mobile quarterbacks such as Carr have given the Chargers problems.
12-31-17	Jaguars v. Titans -123		10-15	Win	100	5 h 51 m	Show
The money line is low enough for me to get involved here. The Titans beat the Jaguars early in the season on the road. Tennessee is in must-win mode. I findi it hard to believe that the Jaguars will play their starters, and go all out, the entire game with nothing to play for. That would just expose them to injury. The Titans play much better at home having won nine of their last 11 home contests.
12-31-17	Texas State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 136.5		53-48	Win	100	8 h 51 m	Show
Texas State has gone Under in eight of its last 11 games. It's not a fluke. Only nine teams take more time per possession to shoot than Texas State. The Bobcats rank 27th defensively holding foes to 63.5 points. So that's a powerful Under combination. Coastal Carolina plays at a deliberate pace, too. The teams met twice last season and the total went Under both times by a combined 50 points.
12-30-17	Wisconsin v. Miami-FL UNDER 45	Top	34-24	Loss	-110	26 h 32 m	Show
I like both of these defenses very much. But it goes farther than that. The Badgers are a running team that plays at a very slow tempo. The Badgers aren't going to get caught up in any type of track meet or passing game. Not with Alex Hornibrook at quarterback. Wisconsin learned its lesson in the Big Ten title game loss to Ohio State when its offensive line got whipped at the line of scrimmage. Miami has an excellent defensive line and is highly opportunistic. The Hurricanes have forced 22 turnovers during their last seven games. Hornibrook has been picked off 15 times this season. The Badgers will stay on the ground even if they fall behind. How good is Wisconsin's defense? It ranked No. 1 in fewest yards per game and in run defense. The Badgers also surrendered the third-fewest points per game in the nation just 13.2. Miami is going to struggle to move the ball. Hurricanes quarterback Malik Rosier isn't a high percentage passer completing less than 55 percent of his throws. The Hurricanes averaged just 8.5 points in their last two games against Pittsburgh and Clemson.
12-30-17	Cavs -3.5 v. Jazz		101-104	Loss	-112	10 h 24 m	Show
The Cavaliers are in stop-the-pain mode off consecutive road losses to the Warriors and then Kings. Cleveland last played on Wednesday and won't play again until Tuesday so this spots sets up well for the Cavaliers. The Jazz have no defensive stoppers to face LeBron James. Utah remains without Rudy Gobbert, their top inside scoring threat and one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. Utah has lost three in a row, losing by an average of 21 points a game during this span. The Jazz aren't close to being in the Cavaliers' class without Gobert.
12-30-17	Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 146.5	Top	74-81	Loss	-115	12 h 58 m	Show
Maybe because Vanderbilt went into Christmas break hot averaging 86.5 points in its last two games. But this total is too high given the quality of Florida's defense and recent history between these two teams. The average combined total during the past three meetings in regulation is 131.3 points.The Gators should be extremely motivated to stop the Commodores, too, in a triple revenge spot. Despite their recent hot shooting, Vanderbilt ranks 312th in shooting percentage at 41.1. The Under has cashed in 15 of Vanderbilt's last 18 road games. Florida has gone Under in its last five games. Neither team has played in more than a week so their shooting figures to be rusty, also.
12-29-17	Hornets v. Warriors -11		111-100	Loss	-106	15 h 32 m	Show
The Warriors can name their score here. The question is can they name it by a wide enough margin to cover this double-digit spread? I believe they can. They certainly did when the two teams met on Dec. 6 in Charlotte. The Warriors rolled past the Hornets, 101-87. Golden State achieved that win minus Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Curry won't be back for this game. But Green is healthy and Golden State is home this time. The Warriors are 9-1 in the 10 games Curry has missed. They've held six of their last 10 foes to fewer than 100 points. The Hornets are a below average defensive club that may not even be good enough to sneak into the Eastern Conference playoffs. They have lost 13 of their last 17 games. Golden State leads the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. Since losing to the Warriors, the Hornets have faced three other strong teams - Boston, Toronto and Houston. Charlotte dropped all three of those games by double-digits with the average loss being 13.6 points. Charlotte has been terrible on the road going 2-12 SU, 3-8-3 ATS. The Warriors host Memphis on Saturday, but after that game won't play again until Wednesday. So they should be playing hard.
12-29-17	Flames v. Ducks UNDER 5.5		1-2	Win	100	6 h 10 m	Show
The Flames have won once in their last 26 games at Anaheim. Calgary has yet to get its 23rd-ranked offense going. The Flames have scored two or fewer goals in six of their last seven games. So I certainly don't see an offensive explosion coming from them. Anaheim ranks 27th in scoring. The Ducks could manage just 13 shots during the last two periods in their 4-1 home loss to Las Vegas this past Wednesday. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Ducks' last seven home games. Overall, Anaheim has gone Under in eight of its last 10 games.
12-29-17	Utah v. Oregon -10		66-56	Loss	-115	10 h 35 m	Show
Utah isn't ready for Oregon. The 10-3 Ducks are holding foes to less than 39 percent shooting from the field while averaging 85.3 points per game. Utah can't match that. Utah has failed to step up against elite type foes losing to UNLV by 27 points, to Butler by 12 and to BYU by 12. The Ducks have defeated the Utes during the past nine meetings, including sweeping them last season.
12-29-17	Rockets v. Wizards UNDER 220.5		103-121	Loss	-105	8 h 41 m	Show
I'm not anticipating Chris Paul to play, but if he does I still like this game to go Under. Paul would be rusty having missed the last three games. He likely wouldn't play big minutes either. The spot sets up for a hard-nose, defensive battle with both teams coming off losses. The Rockets blew a huge lead in losing 99-98 at Boston last night. Houston's four best players all logged more than 38 minutes in that game. The Under has cashed six of the last seven times the Rockets have played without rest. No Paul obviously would be good for the Under, too. Houston has another key injury. Center Clint Capela is out. He leads the NBA in field goal percentage. The Rockets lack an inside game minus Capela. I see reduced minutes for James Harden, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza tonight with newly-signed veteran swingman Gerald Green picking up more minutes. Green made his Rockets debut last night going scoreless in 11 minutes. He's a big offensive downgrade from any of those four players. The Wizards still are mad from an embarrassing 113-99 road loss to the Hawks two nights ago. The Wizards weren't happy with their defense nor their lack of ball movement. I see the Wizards tightening their defense while also taking their time on offense to get the best shot rather than play up-tempo. The Under has cashed 13 of the last 17 times the Wizards have played on one day's rest. Washington is an underrated defensive club at home. The Wizards have yielded just 97.3 points per game during their last six games at Verizon Center.
12-29-17	NC State -6.5 v. Arizona State	Top	52-31	Win	100	93 h 28 m	Show
North Carolina State is a superior team to Arizona State. Now throw in the Sun Devils coaching upheaval and I see North Carolina State winning this game by more than a touchdown. The Wolfpack were in national playoff contention, but couldn't beat Notre Dame and Clemson. No shame in that. The Wolfpack aren't in that elite class. But they are a level higher than Arizona State. North Carolina State has bowl experience winning bowl games in two of the past three seasons. The Wolfpack field one of the most experienced teams in the country with 22 seniors. These seniors have accomplished going to a bowl three straight seasons so they want to end their college careers on a high note. Ryan Finley threw for more than 3,000 yards for North Carolina State this season while completing nearly 64 percent of his passes. He has a deep group of receivers, who can take advantage of Arizona State's 118th pass defense. The Sun Devils ranked 88th in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game. North Carolina State's defense is much stronger giving up fewer than 25 points per game and ranking 28th in run defense. The Wolfpack have a stout defensive line and ASU allowed the 10th-most sacks in the country. The kicker here is Arizona State's coaching situation. The Sun Devils fired Todd Graham and hired Herm Edwards, which was a bizarre hire in my opinion. The Sun Devils' offensive coordinator, Billy Napier, and defensive coordinator, Phil Bennett, then left the program. Napier departed to accept the head coaching job at Louisiana-Lafayette and Bennett left for personal reasons. So newcomer Edwards doesn't have either of his coordinators.
12-28-17	Blackhawks v. Canucks OVER 5.5		2-5	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
The Blackhawks gave up four goals each to the Stars and Devils - both on the road - during their last two games before the Christmas break. Now, coming out of break, the Blackhawks should be refreshed and full of energy. They can take advantage of Vancouver, which ranks 26th defensively and has yielded nine power-play goals in its last seven games. The problem for Chicago, though, is it won't have star goalie Corey Crawford. He's out for at least the next three games. It's a huge step down from Crawford to backup Anton Forsberg, who is 1-4-3 with a 3.13 GAA. The Canucks' offense is respectable thanks to rookie Brock Boseser, who has 20 goals including seven in his last nine games.
12-28-17	San Francisco v. San Diego UNDER 131	Top	63-73	Loss	-110	16 h 14 m	Show
I always think defense when San Diego is involved. The Toreros are No. 1 in 3-point defense, rank 12th in fewest points allowed per game and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. San Francisco is improved defensively allowing 66.3 points a game and rank in the top 65 in defensive efficiency. Neither offense is very good. The intensity should be up as this is a West Coast Conference matchup. The Under has won in 12 of San Francisco's last 16 WCC games. The Under has cashed in 11 of San Diego's past 13 conference games. So I see this total as opening too high. The Under should be good all the way to 125.
12-28-17	Stanford +3 v. TCU	Top	37-39	Win	100	14 h 47 m	Show
These are two strong defensive teams. Stanford is holding foes to 21.5 point a game, 25th-best in the country. The oddsmaker, of course, knows this. That's why we have a relatively low total here. So points matter. And I'll gladly accept them with Stanford, who I rate as better than TCU. Stanford has gone to a bowl game nine straight seasons. The Cardinal has won their last three bowl games. I really like them as underdogs in the David Shaw era as they've covered 80 percent of the time in 15 games in that role under Shaw. Stanford beat Washington by eight points and Notre Dame by 18 as an underdog this season while also covering as a 'dog against USC in the Pac-12 championship game. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill has failed to step up in big games. His worst games came away from home, too. I prefer Stanford's power ground attack headed by speedster Bryce Love. The Horned Frogs are not used to facing this type of offense. They play an unorthodox 3-3-5 defense. This defense is geared to stop the numerous spread offenses in the Big 12 not the type of offense Stanford employs.
12-28-17	Wolves v. Bucks OVER 212.5		96-102	Loss	-105	12 h 36 m	Show
I'm going to roll with the tide and play this matchup to go Over. The Bucks have been a monster Over team going 14-2-1 above the number in their last 17 games. Milwaukee has reached triple digits in each of its last 16 games and is averaging 110.4 points during its last nine games. That shouldn't change here as the Bucks are off an embarrassing 115-106 home loss to the Bulls two nights ago and catch the Timberwolves in action for the third time in four days and second in two nights having nipped the Nuggets, 128-125 in overtime, last night. The Timberwolves rank last in the league in defensive field goal percentage. The Bucks have the perimeter shooters to take full advantage. Minnesota is averaging 113.5 points in its last seven games. The Timberwolves have gone Over in seven of their past eight games, including the last five. Jimmy Butler has been on fire and Karl-Anthony Towns could dominate against a weak rebounding Bucks front line. The Timberwolves may not have starting point guard Jeff Teague. But Tyus Jones is one of the more underrated backup point guards in the league. He's better than an 83 percent foul shooter and is second on the Timberwolves in 3-point shooting percentage.
12-28-17	Louisiana Tech +9 v. Western Kentucky		68-69	Win	100	2 h 26 m	Show
This is the Conference USA opener for both teams - and it's too many points for Western Kentucky to be laying. Conference USA is wide open this season with no clear-cut favorite. Louisiana Tech has the better record and also averages four more points per game than Western Kentucky. The Bulldogs defeated Western Kentucky by nine points last season as a 12-point home favorite. Now look at the line. Good value here to Louisiana Tech.
12-27-17	Missouri v. Texas +3	Top	16-33	Win	100	30 h 36 m	Show
Missouri is overrated and Texas' Tom Herman is one of the great underdog coaches. The Tigers haven't beaten a good team all season. All of their SEC victories were against sub .500 teams. Texas has a much better defense than Missouri and I like Herman far more than Tigers coach Barry Odom. If you go back to when he was Ohio State's offensive coordinator and go through when he was the head man at Houston and now at Texas, Herman is an astounding 15-1 ATS (94%) as an underdog. The Longhorns rank sixth in the nation in run defense. They held five opponents to 14 points or less. Texas' defense will be able to handle Missouri's spread attack having faced multiple spread offenses this season along with great quarterbacks Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. Texas went 3-0 ATS against those quarterbacks holding USC to 24 points in regulation, Oklahoma to under 30 points and Oklahoma State to 10 points in regulation, which was 36 points under the Cowboys' season average. The Longhorns have their quarterbacks healthy and are facing an inferior defensive team.
12-27-17	Knicks +1.5 v. Bulls		87-92	Loss	-110	15 h 43 m	Show
I understand the Bulls are far removed from the 3-20 team that opened the season. I also understand the Knicks are not a good road team, just 2-10. Still, I'm not buying the Bulls opening a favorite in this matchup. The Bulls carry a high fatigue rating. This marks their fifth game in eight days and second in two nights following a highly satisfying road victory against the Bucks last night. Chicago has lost five of six times this season when playing without rest, losing by an average of nearly 13 points per game. The Knicks play five of their next six games on the road, including facing the Spurs in San Antonio on Thursday. New York is coming off a Christmas Day home loss to the 76ers and will be placing a lot of emphasis on winning this game, while Chicago is fat and happy. This also is a big revenge spot for the Knicks. They lost 104-102 to the Bulls at United Center on Dec. 9. The Bulls were blistering hot in that game making 51.2 percent of their shots from the floor. Chicago also went to the free throw line 23 times to just nine times for the Knicks.
12-27-17	Oilers v. Jets OVER 5.5		3-4	Win	100	4 h 45 m	Show
The Oilers entered break on a hot streak winning four in a row while averaging 3.7 goals per game during this span. Connor McDavid is expected to play. The Jets are the fifth-highest scoring team in the league. They've scored 30 goals during their last six home games. The Under has cashed just four times during the Jets' past 14 home contests. Look for a lot of high energy and plenty of offense from these two teams coming off break.
12-27-17	Celtics -115 v. Hornets	Top	102-91	Win	100	14 h 44 m	Show
The Celtics are the much better team and have a huge coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Hornets interim coach Stephen Silas. Charlotte is 4-8 in its last 12 games. The Hornets really miss big man Cody Zeller, who is out following knee surgery. Charlotte is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight home contests. The Celtics are coming off a home loss to the Wizards on Christmas Day and host the Rockets Thursday. So they are in real danger of being saddled with a three-game losing streak if they lose this matchup. Boston has dominated this series under Stevens winning nine of the past 10 times, including the last five.
12-26-17	Bulls v. Bucks OVER 212		115-106	Win	100	6 h 44 m	Show
The Bulls are playing far better on offense with the emergence of Kris Dunn at point guard. They have scored at least 103 points in eight of their last nine games. If you discount their last game, a 92-point road performance against the No. 2 defensive ranked Celtics, the Bulls have averaged 114 points in their last four games. The Bucks have reached triple digits in their last 15 games. They are averaging 111 points per game in their last eight games. The Over is 13-2-1 in Milwaukee's last 16 games. The teams just met 11 days ago at Bradley Center and there were 224 points scored in Chicago's 115-109 upset win.
12-26-17	Pacers v. Pistons -120	Top	83-107	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
The Pistons have defeated the Pacers two of three times this season with the latest coming 11 days ago at Indiana, 104-98. A key to the Pistons beating the Pacers is they can control blossoming star Victor Oladipo, who is shooting just 35.5 percent from the field versus Detroit this season. Even though Avery Bradley remains out, the Pistons have other defensive-minded players such as Reggie Bullock and Anthony Tolliver. Both teams have been playing well, but Indiana has met inferior competition in three of its last four games drawing the Hawks and Nets twice. The Pistons enjoy playing in their new home, Little Caesars Arena. It's not too much to ask of them to beat the Pacers at home.
12-25-17	Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 206.5		111-103	Loss	-103	9 h 2 m	Show
Peace on earth, goodwill to men. Those sentiments don't hold when the Wizards and Celtics get together. This is their first matchup since their contentious Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series that went seven games. There's going to be a lot of intensity in this game. It's a day game, too. These are helpful factors to the Under. It's also a huge Under factor, too, that both teams are strong defensively. Boston ranks second in the NBA in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. Part of this is the Celtics' ranking in the bottom-five in tempo. The Celtics aren't going to get in a track meet against John Wall. Washington has scored fewer than 101 points in five of its last seven games. It's easy to think of Wall and his excellent backcourt mate, Bradley Beal, when talking about the Wizards. But Washington is better defensively than perceived. The Wizards rank No. 1 in 3-point defensive percentage and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. During their last seven games, the Wizards have ranked in the top-five in defensvie efficiency. The Under has been a sneaky good play in Wizards games covering 73 percent of the time during their past 26 games.
12-24-17	Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 46.5	Top	21-12	Loss	-110	85 h 8 m	Show
The Legion of Boom is dead. It doesn't exist without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. Injuries, attribution and low morale have turned Seattle's dominant defense into a mediocre unit vulnerable to a great running back. During its last two games, Seattle has given up a combined 72 points to the Jaguars and Rams. Leonard Fournette rushed for 101 yards against Seattle and Todd Gurley ran for 152 yards and three touchdowns this past Sunday versus the Seahawks. Now Seattle draws maybe the best running back in football, Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is going to be fresh returning from a six-game suspension. Elliott's presence transforms Dallas' entire offense especially Dak Presoctt, making him far more dangerous with play-action and targeting downfield receivers. The Cowboys averaged 31.6 points a game during Elliott's past six games never once falling below 28 points in this span. The desperate Seahawks are going to put up their share of points, too. Russell Wilson is having his finest season one worthy of league MVP status. The Cowboys have defensive injuries, too, particularly in the secondary and at linebacker. The Cowboys have recorded only five sacks in their last six games, lowest in the league during this time frame. So Seattle's below average offensive line isn't going to be as exposed as normal.
12-24-17	Rams v. Titans +7		27-23	Win	100	30 h 32 m	Show
There's line inflation here because of the Rams trampling the Seahawks, 42-7, and the Titans losing to the 49ers after also falling to the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Rams are in a tough situational spot now and the Titans finally are back home where they play much better. Tennessee has won nine of its last 10 home games. Marcus Mariota has had four of his five highest rated passing games at home this season with the other one coming against San Francisco this past Sunday. The Rams have a banged-up secondary. Just two weeks ago, they surrendered four touchdown passes to the Eagles. The lookahead line for this game last week before Sunday's action was Rams minus three. So the line has more than doubled. The Rams were impressive against the Seahawks. But Seattle also played terrible, by far its worst game of the season. Still, that was the Rams' biggest victory in more than a decade and all but clinched the NFC West Division title for them. The Rams have a lot of youth, including their head coach. They have to travel cross-country in an obvious letdown spot right before Christmas. They're going to encounter a desperate and physical Titans team. Tennessee has the ability to control clock, taking advantage of LA's 24th-ranked run defense with one of the better running back tandems in the league with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. A hidden key to the Rams' success is their special teams. Now those special teams took a monster hit with Greg Zuerlein out for the season with a herniated disc in his back. He was having one of the best kicking seasons in NFL history leading the league in scoring while making 38 of 40 field goals. So the Rams go from having the best kicker in football to going with unknown Sam Ficken.
12-24-17	Broncos +3.5 v. Redskins		11-27	Loss	-110	30 h 31 m	Show
The bar is not set very high here for Denver to cover, plus I have to believe the veteran Broncos show up knowing Vance Joseph isn't likely to be fired and the roster will be retooled during the off-season. This is an important showcase game for the Broncos especially quarterbacks Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Both could see action. I don't like either player, although Osweiler is coming off a rare splendid performance. Keep in mind, though, Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense and will be without Zach Brown, the top tackler in the league. The Redskins defense had to defend 80 plays last week, a monster number made worse by this being so late in the season. So they could easily wilt. The Broncos will be the much fresher team since they played last Thursday. I do like the Broncos' defense very much. This is a defense that carried them to a Super Bowl victory just two seasons ago and still retains dominant pass rushers and lock down defensive backs. Denver has been playing its best defense during the past two weeks holding the Jets and Colts to a combined 13 points and less than 350 yards. The Broncos defense can dominate weak offenses and Washington's offense is sputtering done in by a cluster injury problem in the offensive line and its top weapons out. The Redskins permitted 23 sacks last season. They've allowed 38 already this season and will be minus their best offensive lineman with left tackle Trent Williams out with a knee injury. The Redskins could have another new offensive line combination this week depending on injuries. Kirk Cousins can't generate much offense anymore because of his makeshift offensive line and down his top receiver, Jordan Reed, and best running back, Chris Thompson. Washington has weak special teams, too, so its offense doesn't often get good starting field position. I'm expecting the crowd count to be way down with this game rendered meaningless so the Redskins' home field advantage is reduced.
12-23-17	Mavs -125 v. Hawks	Top	107-112	Loss	-125	7 h 13 m	Show
The Hawks have been playing terrible defense yielding triple-digits in 14 of their last 15 games. Atlanta also isn't a good home team going 4-11 this season at Philips Arena and holding a losing ATS home mark. Dallas has picked up its game going 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games. The Hawks are one of the three worst teams in the NBA. Their lack of talent is even more exposed when playing Western Conference foes where they are 2-7 ATS. This is a tough spot, too, for Atlanta following a tough 120-117 road loss to Oklahoma City Friday night. The Hawks gave a great effort in that game. It's an added plus for the Mavericks if the Hawks are going to missing point guard Dennis Schroder for a second straight game. Dallas is in revenge mode, too, for a 117-111 home loss suffered to the Hawks back on Oct. 18 when it wasn't playing as well.
12-23-17	Ducks v. Penguins OVER 5.5		4-0	Loss	-115	3 h 43 m	Show
Sparked by the return of Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim is more respectable offensively now. The Ducks have tallied three or more goals in six of their last nine games. The Penguins are ranked No. 1 in shots taken and also have the league's third-most potent power play advantage. So the Penguins should get their share of goals here. Pittsburgh usually plays better at home where the Over is 6-2-1 in its last nine home contests. There only has been one Under during the past six meetings, too, between the two teams.
12-23-17	Texas Tech v. South Florida -3		34-38	Win	100	26 h 56 m	Show
I like South Florida's defense and its quarterback, senior Quinton Flowers. These strengths provide South Florida a strong enough edge to cover this short number. Flowers is a dangerous dual threat with his passing and running ability. The Red Raiders faced three elite quarterbacks this season - Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Will Grier - and lost to all three of them. Texas Tech doesn't have the offense to trade points with South Florida especially going against a rugged Bulls defense that ranked 37th in scoring defense, 28th in total defense and 22nd in run defense. Texas Tech Nic Shimonek was ineffective enough to get pulled late in the season. The Red Raiders earned their bowl berth by getting to six wins with a 27-23 victory against Texas to finish the regular season. That victory likely saved Kliff Kingsbury's job. I doubt the Red Raiders can reach the same level of intensity now that Kingsbury is safe and the team achieved their goal of making a bowl game.
12-22-17	Texas State -2.5 v. Rice		74-66	Win	100	12 h 34 m	Show
I conceed Rice has played the more difficult schedule of the two teams. But power rating-wise, Texas State is the better team. Statistics bear this out. The Bobcats give up 12 fewer points per game than Rice and score four more points per contest. Rice is looking forward to Christmas break. The Owls are 1-5 in their last six games. Rice has a losing record at home, too. The Owls' lone home victories were against non-board teams St. Edward's and St. Thomas. Texas State and Rice have one common opponent - Texas Rio Grande Valley. Texas State rolled past the Vaqueros, 75-58, while Rice lost to them, 69-67.
12-22-17	Knicks v. Pistons -6		101-104	Loss	-105	8 h 13 m	Show
The Knicks are in a major letdown spot after upsetting the Celtics, 102-93, at home last night. Now the Knicks hit the road where they have been terrible. New York is 2-9 this season away from Madison Square Garden, 3-8 ATS. Kristaps Porzingis is far and away New York's best player. But he hasn't been 100 percent due to a knee injury. The Pistons are in bounce-back mode after a bad 110-93 road loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Detroit had won three in a row prior to that. The Pistons are tough in their new Little Caesar Arena going 9-5 there with a winning point spread mark.
12-22-17	Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming	Top	14-37	Loss	-115	11 h 3 m	Show
Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen gets the publicity. That's partly why the Cowboys are favored here. But Allen is a better pro prospect than college player. I find him to be overhyped due in part from a drop in statistics from his junior season plus having a mediocre offensive line and lack of playmakers surrounding him. He's also not 100 percent bothered by a sore shoulder. The Cowboys' leading rusher produced just 474 yards and they had only one receiver with more than 27 receptions. By contrast, Central Michigan quarterback Shane Morris is surrounded by skill position weapons. The Chippewas improved as the season went on. They enter this bowl game playing their best ball winning and covering their past five games. Central Michigan averaged 41.2 points in its past five games. The Chippewas beat good MAC teams, too, during this stretch defeating Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan by a combined 26 points. The spot isn't bad either for the Chippewas. They are more excited and motivated to be traveling to a bowl game while this venue is a letdown for Wyoming, which played in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego last season. I consider Central Michigan to be the superior team. So getting points is a nice bonus.
12-21-17	Cal-Irvine v. Idaho UNDER 136.5		67-59	Win	100	15 h 23 m	Show
Cal Irvine is coming off a bad loss to Montana. But the game before that the Anteaters held St. Mary's to seven points under its scoring average and 41.1 percent shooting from the floor. The Gaels have the 16th-highest field goal percentage in the nation at 50.9. Point being Irvine can play defense. So can Idaho, which ranks 28th in scoring defense and 27th in defensive field goal percentage. Both team's defenses far outshine their offenses. The Under is 18-7-1 in Idaho's last 26 non-league games. Yes, the total is low. But it's not low enough.
12-21-17	Temple v. Florida International OVER 57		28-3	Loss	-115	28 h 2 m	Show
You can toss the season statistics out when handicapping this matchup. Both offenses for Temple and Florida International are better than their season numbers. Both offenses have gotten hot down the stretch and I see that continuing in this Gasparilla Bowl to be played in sunny, 75-degree weather in St. Petersburg, Fla. Temple is coming off a 43-point performance against Tulsa. The Owls' offense picked up after a quarterback switch to Frank Nutile. If you discount their game against Central Florida, the Owls averaged 34.8 points in their last five games once Nutile became the established quarterback. Florida International closed out its season averaging 52 points during its final two regular season games in victories against Western Kentucky and Massachusetts. The Panthers scored 30 or more points in four of their last six games. They also led the nation in scoring percentage inside the red zone going 39 for 40. Temple has one of the worst red-zone defenses in the country.
12-21-17	Bulls +11 v. Cavs		112-115	Win	100	12 h 36 m	Show
Maybe the Cavaliers cover a rare home game and beat the spread when laying double-digits for the first time this season. But I have to take the Bulls believing this isn't going to happen. Sparked by the return of Nikola Mirotic and the emergence of Kris Dunn as a legitmate NBA point guard, the Bulls have put their rebuild plans on hold winning and covering seven in a row. Chicago should be motivated to test itself going against LeBron James and Cleveland in a double-revenge spot. The Bulls were playing much worse when they lost to the Cavaliers, 119-112, in the third game of the season during their last visit to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 13-4 at home, but a mind-boggling 2-15 ATS. They are 0-11 ATS when laying double-digits. Only four times in their 32 games this season have the Cavaliers won by 12 or more points. Cleveland has a monster look-ahead game, too, as following this matchup the Cavaliers take off for the West Coast. The marquee matchup of the season goes Sunday with the Cavaliers meeting the Warriors. The Bulls did play last night. But no Chicago starter even reached the 29-minute mark in the Bulls' 112-94 home win against Orlando.
12-20-17	Blues +104 v. Flames		1-2	Loss	-100	7 h 10 m	Show
The Blues are the superior team so I like them at this price. Calgary struggles to stop the magnificent Vladimir Tarasenko and is under .500 at home this season. The Blues are in bounce back mode after a bad 4-0 loss on the road to Winnipeg in their last game. St. Louis has won five of the last six times following a road defeat. Calgary is 1-3 in its last four games and 3-6 in its last nine. I don't see the Flames winning if the Blues bring at least their "B" game.
12-20-17	Magic +5 v. Bulls		94-112	Loss	-110	9 h 35 m	Show
It's easy to do a double-take when looking at this spread. But it's legitimate. Chicago has won six in a row. The Bulls actually are in position to overlook the Magic with upcoming marquee road matchups against the Cavaliers, Celtics and Bucks. Orlando looks at Chicago and sees how its season can turn around, too. The Magic have lost five in a row, but are getting healthier. They have forward Jonathan Isaac, one of their best defensive players, back and could get back leading scorer Evan Fournier. He's questionable along with Arron Affalo. Mario Hezonija stepped up in their absence erupting for 28 points in a 114-110 road loss to the Pistons - a team better than the Bulls - this past Sunday. The Magic have been idle since losing to the Pistons. Orlando has revenge motivation for 105-83 home loss suffered to the Bulls last month when down its two top point guards. Both are back for Orlando. Orlando has covered in seven of its last 10 visits to Chicago.
12-20-17	Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU		51-10	Win	100	55 h 46 m	Show
I like both team's offenses. But Louisiana Tech has the better defense and has far more bowl experience. SMU also is going through a coaching change making this an awkward spot. Chad Morris led the Mustangs to their first bowl game since 2012. But Morris resigned after three season at SMU to become coach at Arkansas. This was less than two weeks ago. Morris took most of his offensive staff with him leaving new head coach Sonny Dykes to go over bowl preparations. I'm not a fan of Dykes. I prefer Louisiana Tech coach Skip Holtz much more than Dykes. Louisiana Tech has been to a bowl game each of the last three seasons - winning each time. This is the inaugural Frisco Bowl, which is being played in Frisco, Texas. It's less than 30 miles from Frisco to Dallas. So SMU could have bigger crowd support. On the other hand, it has to be boring for the Mustangs not getting to go anywnhere for their first bowl appearance in five years. Louisiana Tech has experience in this region, too. The Bulldogs won the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth last year and also was victorious in the Heat of Dallas Bowl in 2014. SMU allowed 35.5 points a game. The Mustangs ranked 122nd in total defense and 113th in scoring defense. SMU enters this matchup going 1-3 in its last four games with the lone winning during this span coming at home, 41-38, against Tulane in a game it failed to cover. The Mustangs have covered only one of their last seven games. Louisiana Tech ranked 66th in total defense and scoring defense giving up 26.7 points. The Bulldogs are good at forcing turnovers, too, tying for 11th in interceptions with 16.
12-20-17	Kings v. Nets -5		104-99	Loss	-110	12 h 59 m	Show
When is it ever good to lay a mid-size number with the Nets? Now. The spot, situation and history set up a Brooklyn play. The Kings stunned the 76ers last night rallying from 16 points down to win, 101-95, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs. Now the Kings have to turn around to play the win-starved Nets at the conclusion of their four-game, seven day road trip. Bad timing for them. Sacramento could be short-handed, too, in the backcourt. George Hill missed last night's game due to illness and good-looking rookie De'Aaron Fox reinjured his thigh against the 76ers. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode with a three-game losing streak. Before then, they had won five of eight. Brooklyn has a winning spread mark when favored. The Nets also are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Western Conference foes. Sacramento happens to be 4-10-2 ATS versus Eastern Conference opponents even with that victory against the 76ers, who were minus Joel Embiid. The Kings are 5-13 on the road this season and had lost seven straight road games to the Nets before winning last season. Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against Sacramento.
12-20-17	North Texas v. Georgetown -9.5		63-75	Win	100	17 h 31 m	Show
I see this as a bounce back spot for Georgetown and a letdown spot for North Texas. The Hoyas suffered their first loss in nine games when they lost to Syracuse in overtime this past Saturday. There's no shame in losing to the Orangemen. But there would be shame in losing at home to North Texas. Patrick Ewing should have Georgetown on alert for this foe. North Texas is off an 86-83 victory against San Diego this past Saturday winning as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs. The Mean Green had lost seven straight true road games in a row, including going 0-4 this season, before springing the upset. Among the Mean Green's road defeats this season is a 14-point loss to Nebraska.
12-19-17	Lightning -125 v. Golden Knights		3-4	Loss	-125	8 h 38 m	Show
Las Vegas has been great at home. Kudos to the Golden Knights. But I don't believe the expansion Golden Knight can beat the best team in the NHL. Tampa Bay is sizzling winning seven in a row. The Lightning are rested, too, having last played on Saturday. Tampa Bay trumps Las Vegas in all areas leading the NHL in scoring and having the top goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning won't be taking the Golden Knights lightly either knowing what they've accomplished.
12-19-17	Dayton v. St. Mary's -10.5		54-69	Win	100	19 h 49 m	Show
St. Mary's ranks third in the NCAA in adjusted offensive efficiency, has the second lowest turnover rate in the country and ranks 16th in the nation in shooting percentage. The Gaels also are ranked 12th in free throw percentage and 34th in 3-point percentage. Jock Landale is one of the best players in the country averaging 21.6 points a game and 9.5 rebounds. So the Gaels definitely have the offense to cover this spread. This matchup sets up well for the Gaels to do just that. Dayton is playing just its second true road game. The Flyers last were on the road 16 days ago. The Flyers have a lot of inexperience. They are struggling to find their identity under first-year coach Anthony Grant. The Flyers don't have much height either. They are going to have problems dealing with the 6-foot-10 Landale. The Flyers managed to hold off Georgia State, 88-83, in overtime during their last game as a six-point home favorite on Saturday. But they have not won back-to-back games all season.
12-19-17	Cavs v. Bucks OVER 215		116-119	Win	100	3 h 41 m	Show
LeBron James is having an MVP-type season and Cleveland has reached triple digits in 24 straight games. The Bucks are an average defensive team and rank last in 3-point defense. Milwaukee has reached triple-digits in its last 12 games. The Bucks have scored 108 or more points during each of their last five games. The Over is 10-1-1 in the Bucks' last 12 games. The teams have met twice this season. Both games went Over the total. That's in keeping with the trend in this series, which has seen the Over cover 22 of the last 29 times. Note the short spread, too, in this game. So there's an increased chance of overtime potentially occurring.
12-18-17	Penguins v. Avalanche OVER 6		2-4	Push	0	4 h 27 m	Show
Pittsburgh ranks 23rd defensively. Colorado is 27th defensively. The Penguins have scored three or more goals in nine of their last 11 games. They lead the NHL in shots and catch Colorado short-handed on the blue line with defenseman Erik Johnson out. The Avalanche are averaging 3.6 goals in their last five games. Matt Murray has been confirmed as Pittsburgh's goalie. Murray isn't nearly as good on the road where he's a mediocre 6-6 with a 3.25 GAA and has an .885 save percentage.
12-18-17	Jazz v. Rockets OVER 216	Top	99-120	Win	100	4 h 60 m	Show
The Rockets have the top offense in the NBA right now. Chris Paul has made James Harden even more dangerous if that's possible. Harden is leading the NBA in scoring at 31.5 points a game. The Rockets have scored at least 115 points in nine of their last 11 games. The Jazz are far more vulnerable on defense without Rudy Gobert, their star center and rim protector. The Jazz have become more up-tempo and offensive-minded minus Gobert. They have scored triple digits in each of their last five games and 11 of their last 12 games. Derrick Favors, the Jazz's second-best big man, is out, too. So there should be a lot of small ball in this matchup.
12-18-17	Charlotte +3 v. East Carolina		69-50	Win	100	8 h 17 m	Show
Charlotte is in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. The 49ers will be well rested having been idle a week. The team should play hard here for interim coach Houston Fancher following Mark Price getting fired. That was a shock. But it should shake Charlotte up. Charlotte holds a backcourt edge. East Carolina is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country. Charlotte has underachieved. The 49ers are better than they showed. So the 49ers needed to be shook up.
12-17-17	San Francisco +7.5 v. Stanford		59-71	Loss	-110	6 h 10 m	Show
Stanford hasn't been very good this season. The Cardinal are a below .500 team and own few quality victories. San Francisco won't lack motivation against their nearby Pac-12 rival. This is just a short 35-mile road trip for the Dons. San Francisco is on a 3-game win streak, including beating UC Davis by 13 points in their last game. The Dons won 20 games last season. They are more worthy of than this big line shows.
12-17-17	Titans +2 v. 49ers		23-25	Push	0	58 h 36 m	Show
The 49ers are rejuvenated thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo. But let's not go overboard here. San Francisco is 2-0 since Garoppolo became the starter beating the Bears and Texans. The Titans are a clear level higher than those teams if not two levels better. The Titans are off a bad 12-7 road loss to Arizona this past Sunday. Before that, though, the Titans had won six of seven. Tennessee's offense is capable of much better than it has shown lately. Marcus Mariotta has had some bad luck with interceptions. He remains an emerging franchise quarterback with two solid running backs. The Titans' defense is somewhat underrated having allowed 20 or fewer points in all but one of their last seven games. The Titans are very much in the playoff picture holding down the No. 1 spot right now for an AFC wild-card berth. However, their last two regular season games are against the Rams and Jaguars. So they can't afford to lose this game. The Titans are putting tremendous effort and concentration into securing a win here. That's why the team has spent this week in California practicing on grass in warm weather after playing in Arizona this past Sunday. The 49ers are improved due to Garoppolo. They still aren't a good team, though. Far from it. San Francisco doesn't usually play well either versus good teams going 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against above .500 opponents. The 49ers have failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 home games, too.
12-17-17	Rams v. Seahawks OVER 47		42-7	Win	100	58 h 31 m	Show
Seattle's once dominant defense isn't so fierce when five of its top six defenders are likely to be out. The Seahawks definitely won't have their best cornerback, Richard Sherman, nor their best pass rusher, Cliff Avril. Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor also is sidelined. I'd be surprised if Pro Bowl linebackers Bobby Wagner (hamstring) and K.J. Wright (concussion) can play, too, after both were injured last Sunday. The Seahawks gave up 30 points to Blake Bortles and the Jaguars this past Sunday because of their depleted defense. Now they face the No. 2 scoring offense in the league. The Rams average 30.5 points. Their offense has been very consistent putting up 32 or more points in five of the last seven games. The Rams have a top-five runner in Todd Gurley and the top kicker in football, Greg Zuerlein. He's made 36 of 38 field goals this season. Given Gurley, decent receivers and much better coaching, Jared Goff has emerged as a solid quarterback in his second season. The Rams get back Robert Woods, who has been their most consistent receiver. Offensive left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who is having another strong season, is on track to play, too, after nursing a knee injury. So the Rams offense should be at full strength. Russell Wilson makes Seattle's offense dangerous. Wilson has accounted for 32 touchdowns, including running or passing in each of the Seahawks' last 25 offensive touchdowns. He's a strong MVP candidate. The Seahawks are averaging 25.7 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 24 points in each of their past four games, including getting 24 points on the road against Jacksonville, the top defensive team in the NFL. The Rams defense, like the Seahawks defense, is banged-up. LA's secondary is weakened by cornerback Kayvon Webster being out with a torn Achilles tendon suffered last week. The Rams have other injuries in their defensive backfield and middle linebacker Alec Ogletree is dealing with a hyberextended elbow. Weather-wise, light rain is expected but temperatures will be in the 50s with little wind.
12-17-17	Packers v. Panthers -137	Top	24-31	Win	100	54 h 19 m	Show
Everything is being made of Aaron Rodgers returning for this game. There are four factors to consider, though, that should temper the high enthusiasm of Rodgers' return. No. 4: Rodgers has missed the past seven games. So he could be rusty. Very rusty. His teammates have made the adjustment to Brett Hundley. Now they must revert back to Rodgers against a defense that gives up the fifth-fewest yards in the NFL. No. 3: Rodgers was out with a broken right collarbone. He's going to have to be careful and the Packers know this. That should limit his running, which is one of the things that make him great. Rodgers can't afford to take any shots. Green Bay has surrendered 43 sacks. That's third-highest in the league. Rodgers must curb is recklessness. He will be under orders to be careful. That could reduce his effectiveness. No. 2: Carolina is home and tied for first in the NFC South Division. The Panthers need to win, too. No. 1: Carolina is the better team. The Panthers are 9-4 and playing well with five wins in their last six games. The Panthers have a far better defense than the Packers, who rank 26th in total yards, don't rush the passer well and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Carolina just put up 31 points on the Vikings, who have a top-three defense. Cam Newton can go hot and cold. This should be one of his hot games against a defense that especially struggles versus mobile quarterbacks. The Packers have beaten one winning team since Week 2 and that was 7-6 Dallas. Rodgers coming back is a nice story. But the deck is stacked against him and Green Bay in this matchup.
12-16-17	North Texas v. San Diego UNDER 135.5		86-83	Loss	-110	16 h 48 m	Show
It's rarely wrong to look Under with San Diego. The Toreros have gone Under in 17 of their last 21 games. San Diego has this below the total mark because of its outstanding defense. It's a primary reason why the Toreros are off to their best start since joining Division I 38 years ago. San Diego is holding foes to 59.6 points a game. Only six teams in the country allow fewer points per game. The Toreros also rank third in the nation in 3-point defense and seventh in defensive field goal percentage. The oddsmaker knows all of this of course. So the key to making this Under work is pace. Neither team plays up-tempo. North Texas averages 77.7 points, but the Mean Green are double-digit 'dogs. I see the Toreros controlling pace while playing with a lead.
12-16-17	UNLV -7 v. Pacific		81-76	Loss	-108	14 h 47 m	Show
Pacific is improved, but the Tigers are far from being in UNLV's class. The Rebels are too athletic and have too much scoring for Pacific to handle. UNLV is averaging 91.5 points a game, fifth-best in the country, and rank No. 3 in rebounding. Pacific is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games.
12-16-17	UNLV v. Pacific OVER 157		81-76	Push	0	14 h 32 m	Show
UNLV averages 91.5 points per game. Only four teams average more per game. The Rebels have gone Over the total in all but one of their 10 lined games this season. So I'm going to ride with that. Pacific is playing fast under Damon Stoudamire. The Tigers have gone Over in seven of their 10 lined contests. I see both teams running and pushing tempo.
12-16-17	Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State OVER 61.5	Top	35-30	Win	100	279 h 7 m	Show
The oddsmaker thought he set a high enough total on this game. He didn't. Middle Tennessee State's overall offensive statistics are skewed because its star quarterback, Brent Stockstill, missed around half the season. Stockstill returned four games ago and Middle Tennessee State averaged 36 points in those games. Arkansas State has one of the most potent offenses in the country ranking 11th in total yards at nearly 500 a game, sixth in passing yards and 15th in points averaging 38.5 per game. Neither team is strong defensively against the pass. So it's easy to forsee a shootout between Stockstill and Justice Hansen. The Red Wolves rank 91st in pass defense. Another plus for the Over is that each team plays at a fast tempo.
12-16-17	CS-Fullerton +7.5 v. California		89-95	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
California is 4-6 under first-year coach Wyking Jones, but off an improbable 63-62 win against San Diego State. The Golden Bears were 16-point road 'dogs in that game. Cal still could be celebrating that win. If that's the case, the Bears will be in serious trouble because Fullerton is an underrated foe. The Titans have won five in a row. They've defeated Harvard and Portland and have been at their point spread best versus sub .500 foes covering eight of the last nine times against them. Upsetting San Diego State aside, the Golden Bears just aren't that good. Among their losses are games to Chaminade and Central Arkansas.
12-15-17	Nets +11 v. Raptors	Top	87-120	Loss	-105	9 h 43 m	Show
The Nets are a scrappy bunch and very underrated by the oddsmaker. Brooklyn has greatly improved its defense to the point where until last night, the Nets ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency during their past seven games. Brooklyn couldn't hit its 3-pointers and lost, 111-104, at home to the Knicks Thursday night. The Nets were short favorites in that game. They are much better in an underdog role where they have covered nine of the last 10 times. Despite that defeat, the Nets still have a winning record in their last nine games. The Nets found, if not a star, a very reliable player in that loss to the Knicks. Point guard Spencer Dinwiddie put up a career-best 26 points to go with seven rebounds and seven assists. He is averaging 15.4 points per game since replacing injured D'Angelo Russell. This isn't a good spot for Toronto. The Raptors just concluded a four-game, six-day road trip on Wednesday night beating the Suns, 115-109. The Raptors are 2-4 ATS in their last six games and are in a flat spot playing in their first home game in 10 days.
12-15-17	Maple Leafs v. Red Wings OVER 5.5		1-3	Loss	-100	3 h 6 m	Show
This is only the sixth time all season the Maple Leafs have a total of less than 6 on their matchup. Toronto has been in a scoring slump. I don't see it continuing against the Red Wings and cold goalie Jimmy Howard. The Red Wings have allowed an average of 4.5 goals per game during their last eight games. Detroit can take advantage offensively of the Maple Leafs' mediocre defense. Only one team gives up more shots on goal than Toronto.
12-15-17	Blazers v. Magic UNDER 210		95-88	Win	100	3 h 7 m	Show
Portland is a top-six defensive team while the Magic's scoring is greatly reduced with their two leading scorers still out of action as both Evan Fouriner and Aaron Gordon are sidelined by injuries. The Magic haven't broken 95 points in three of their last five games. Portland is a huge Under team. The under is 14-4-1 in its last 19 games.
12-14-17	Broncos -140 v. Colts	Top	25-13	Win	100	19 h 9 m	Show
This truly has been a lost season for Denver. But the Broncos can handle weak teams and have enough veteran pride to show up for this nationally televised game. If the Broncos play to their talent level on defense and Trevor Siemian plays under control - like he did last week - Denver should have no problem against a very bad Colts team. The Broncos give up the fewest yards per game and second-fewest yards through the air. Von Miller can terrorize Jacoby Brissett, who has been sacked more than any other quarterback this season. The Colts' porous offensive line is made even worse by center Ryan Kelly being out with a concussion. The Colts are the third-lowest scoring team in the league at 16.3 points per game. They rely on 34-year-old Frank Gore to help move the chains. Gore carried the ball 34 times, a career-hign during the Colts' overtime loss in the snow last Sunday against the Bills. He's not going to have anything left in the tank for this short turnaround game. Denver should be able to move the ball against the Cotls, who rank 31st in points allowed at 26.4 per game. Indy also allows the the fourth-most yards per game. They have three rookies in their defensive backfield. Their top cornerback, Rashaan Melvin, is out with a hand injury. The Broncos had their flagging confidence restored last Sunday ending an eight-game losing streak by shutting out the Jets, 23-0. They are capable of shutting out the Colts, too.
12-14-17	Knicks v. Nets -120		111-104	Loss	-120	11 h 18 m	Show
The Nets don't get the media attention the Knicks do. They don't have any stars either. But Brooklyn has been playing good ball winning five of its eight games. The Nets have improved their defense by 10 points per game during this span holding opponents to 100.9 points in their last eight games. Brooklyn is a respectable 5-6 at home, covering seven of its last 11 games at Barclays Center. The Nets have defeated the Thunder and Wizards during two of their past three home contests. The Knicks have an NBA-low one road victory in nine away matchups. They are 2-7 ATS away from Madison Square Garden. The Nets take this rivalry more serious than the Knicks and also have revenge motivation for a 107-86 road loss on Oct. 27. There should be a buzz to this game, too, for the Nets as Jahlil Okafor should be making his Brooklyn debut.
12-14-17	Pistons -4 v. Hawks		105-91	Win	100	7 h 2 m	Show
The Pistons are in circle-the-wagons mode and can take their frustrations out of the hapless Hawks. Atlanta is one of the four-worst teams in the NBA at 6-21, including 3-9 at home. Detroit should exploit the Hawks' weak defense that ranks 26th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage. Opponents have hit 50 percent of their field goals during the past five games against the Hawks. Atlanta is giving up an average of 113 points per game during this span.
12-14-17	Sabres +160 v. Flyers		1-2	Loss	-100	6 h 57 m	Show
I'm taking the value and going with the Sabres, who I see as a very live 'dog. The Flyers are 1-6 in their last seven home games. It's a flat spot, too, for Philadelphia. The Flyers have won four in a row with the last coming at home two nights ago against the Maple Leafs. The Flyers host the hot Stars on Saturday in a bigger game than this. Buffalo has been more competitive than its record may indicate. The Sabres are 2-2 in their last four games. Their two losses during this time frame both came in overtime on the road to the Blackhawks and Blues. The Sabres are healthy and have Robin Lehner in net. He has been playing well stopping 149 of 159 shots in his last four games for a .937 save percentage.
12-13-17	Raptors v. Suns UNDER 220.5		115-109	Loss	-107	9 h 23 m	Show
The Suns aren't the same high-scoring team without their leading scorer and best player, Devin Booker. He's been out the last three games and the Suns have averaged 97.3 points in those contests, going Under all three times. Phoenix just lost 99-92 on the road to the Kings last night. Toronto is playing its fourth road game in six days. So there is a fatigue element on both teams, which should mean a slower pace.
12-13-17	Arkansas-Little Rock v. Bradley UNDER 130.5	Top	46-86	Loss	-110	16 h 28 m	Show
My first look is Under when I study teams from the Missouri Valley Conference. With Bradley hosting this opponent, Little Rock, Under strongly jumps out. Bradley is strong defensively and neither team has much of a scoring attack. Both are half-court oriented, too, so the tempo should be slow. All four of Bradley's lined home games this season have gone Under, while LIttle Rock has gone Under in eight of its last nine road games.
12-13-17	Nuggets v. Celtics -6.5		118-124	Loss	-103	8 h 51 m	Show
I want the Celtics going for me here after they suffered their worst and most embarrassing loss of the season in their last game. That was a 100-85 road defeat to the Bulls two nights ago. The Celtics didn't have Kyrie Irving in that game. Irving is expected to play here. Boston won't have Al Horford, but Denver is missing its two best players, big men Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are a bit fat and happy after upsetting the Pistons, 103-84, last night. Even with that victory, the Nuggets are just 5-10 SU, 4-11 ATS on the road this season. Denver carries a high fatigue rating, too, as this concludes their six-game, 10-day road swing.
12-12-17	Wizards -145 v. Nets		98-103	Loss	-145	13 h 2 m	Show
The Wizards aren't going to have John Wall back yet, but they still are good enough to beat the Nets. Washington will have the three best players on the court in Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat. Not only is this Brooklyn's first game back after playing a pair of games in Mexico City, but its underrated chemistry has changed. The Nets will be breaking in newcomers Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas and are without Sean Kilpatrick and Trevor Booker. Kilpatrick and Booker aren't great players, but they fit in well with the Nets and were popular teammates. There's going to be an adjustment period as the Nets learn how to best utlize Okafor, a talented big man who failed to mesh with the 76ers. Beal has stepped up well in Wall's eight-game absence averaging 23.3 points. The Wizards should be in angry mood after getting nipped, 113-112, by the Clippers on the road Saturday when Beal's game-winning basket was disallowed. Despite that non-cover, the Wizards still are 9-4 ATS during their past 13 away matchups. They have owned the Nets winning 12 of the past 14 meetings, including the last seven.
12-12-17	Kings -115 v. Devils		1-5	Loss	-115	7 h 54 m	Show
The Kings have won a league-best eight straight games. At this low price, I'll ride with them. The Devils are 1-3 in their last four games giving up an average of four goals per game during this span. LA has proven tough on the road going 10-3-1. The Devils have only been mediocre at home going 6-5-2. The Kings also have won 14 of 17 games versus Eastern Conference opponents and are 5-0 against teams from the Metropolitan Division. The Devils' offense has cooled off. New Jersey is averaging 2.2 goals during its last four games. The Kings yield the fewest goals per game in the league at 2.1.
12-12-17	Avalanche v. Capitals OVER 5.5		2-5	Win	100	2 h 45 m	Show
Colorado ranks 24th defensively and the Capitals have scored 18 goals during their last four games. The Avalanche, though, are a top 10 scoring team and they draw the Capitals going with backup goalie, Philippe Grubauer. The over has cashed in four of the past five meetings between the two teams.
12-12-17	Columbia +11.5 v. Boston College	Top	66-81	Loss	-110	17 h 48 m	Show
Boston College is in a huge letdown spot and Columbia is far more competitve than its 1-9 record might indicate. The Eagles took down then No. 1 ranked Duke, 89-84, this past Saturday as 15-point home 'dogs behind a rare sellout crowd. The Eagles had a week to prepare for that game. They've had two days to get down from the skies to play this game. I see Boston College being very flat here and taking Columbia lightly. That would be a mistake. Boston College isn't that good. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games even with that victory against Duke. BC has lost to Texas Tech, Nebraska and Providence by a combined 40 points. This also will be the second game the Eagles won't have Deontae Hawkins, their top rebounder and third-leading scorer. He's out with a knee injury. Columbia has had seven of its nine losses come by 10 points or fewer, including a four-point overtime loss to Connecticut. Another defeat was by 15 points to top-ranked Villanova. The Lions are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games when taking on a home team with a winning percentage better than .600.
12-11-17	Raptors v. Clippers OVER 214.5	Top	91-96	Loss	-107	15 h 47 m	Show
The Raptors are comfortable in their new offense. Their recent scoring results prove this. Toronto is averaging 117 points in its last six games - all victories. Toronto has reached triple-digits in 12 straight games while scoring 112 or more in five of its past six games. DeMar DeRozan is the Raptors' main threat and he's hot averaging 25.4 points on 50 percent shooting from the floor in his last five games. DeRozan also is averaging 6.8 assists per game during this span. He'll be highly motivated to perform well being from Southeren California. The Clippers should contribute their share of points. Danilo Gallinari looked sharp in his second game back from injury scoring 25 points in a 113-112 home win against the Wizards this past Saturday. Austin Rivers has been playing well, too, averaging 23 points in his last three games. Lou Williams is a dangerous scorer when he has rest and the Clippers were idle yesterday. There's a chance the Clippers get back guard Milos Teodosic for this game. The Clippers have struggled defensively minus injured Blake Griffin and Patrick Beverley, allowing an average of 114.3 points per game during their last six games.
12-11-17	Panthers v. Red Wings OVER 5.5		2-1	Loss	-120	6 h 27 m	Show
Florida has scored 13 goals in its last three games, but given up 16 goals during this span. Part of the Panthers' defensive woes are they are forced to go with James Reimer, one of the lesser backup goalies in the league. The Red Wings also are having problems on defense yielding 17 goals in their last three games. Jimmy Howard played well last season for Detroit. But Howard is on a cold spell giving up four or more goals in his last five games.
12-11-17	Avalanche v. Penguins OVER 6		2-1	Loss	-100	6 h 60 m	Show
Pittsburgh has scored three or more goals in each of its last eight games. Both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are hot for Pittsburgh. Colorado ranks 26th defensively and is going with backup goalie Jonathan Bernier. The Over is 6-0-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven home games. Colorado ranks eighth in scoring. The Avalanche just scored seven goals in their last game. They also draw a backup goalie in Tristan Jarry, who is filling in for injured Matt Murray. Jarry looked good in two games against offensively-challenged Buffalo, but has found things tougher against better offenses.
12-11-17	Capitals v. Islanders OVER 6		1-3	Loss	-105	6 h 58 m	Show
The Islanders are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL and an Over machine going 10-2-1 above the total during their last 13 games. The Islanders have gone Over in 82 percent of their home games this season. The Capitals have been a big Over team on the road with the Over cashing in 77 percent of their away contests this season. Washington has scored 18 goals during its last four games and catch the Islanders down injured defenseman Thomas Hickey.
12-10-17	Ravens v. Steelers -4		38-39	Loss	-108	30 h 22 m	Show
It's easy to point out how the Steelers have won seven in a row and are 9-0 during their last nine regular-season primetime regualr season games. This handicap for me, though, comes down to trusting the Steelers offense at home to easily outscore Baltimore's pop-gun attack. Ben Roethlisberger is a beast at home. I regard Joe Flacco as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Baltimore's run defense has gotten much better, but its secondary is very much weakened without its top cornerback, Jimmy Smith. The Ravens are vulnerable to Antonio Brown and if their safeties help out with pass coverage - as they need to do - then running lanes open up more for Le'Veon Bell, the leading rusher in the NFL. Pittsburgh is down linebacker Ryan Shazier, their best all-around defensive player. But the Steelers have a very strong pass rush ranking No. 2 with 40 sacks. Shazier does not have a sack on the season. I don't see the Ravens keeping up with Roethilisberger and Co.
12-10-17	Jets v. Broncos +1.5		0-23	Win	100	28 h 39 m	Show
Yes, the Jets have overachieved and Denver has been the most disappointing team in the AFC. But making the Jets a road favorite in this matchup is going too far overboard. The Jets have done their damage at home. They are 1-4 on the road with their lone away victory coming against the winless Browns in a game they were outplayed and outyarded in. Denver's defense has top 10 talent. Many of the same defenders were on the Broncos' Super Bowl team of just two years ago. The Broncos can handle journeyman Josh McCown at home. McCown could be without his top receiver as Robby Anderson sustained a hamstring injury during practice Thursday. The Broncos have been done in by atrocious quarterback play. Trevor Siemian, though, is an upgrade on Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Siemian is better than he was last week and is operating against a bottom-10 Jets defense.
12-10-17	Missouri State v. Oral Roberts UNDER 143		66-73	Win	100	8 h 10 m	Show
Missouri State ranks 33rd in defensive scoring giving up 63.2 points a game. The Bears should have no trouble handling Oral Roberts, which just was held to 60 points by Southern Nazarene, a subdivision team, in its last game. Like most Missouri Valley Conference schools, the Bears favor a methodical pace rather than go up-tempo. Oral Roberts is among the bottom 50 schools in pace. So I don't see many points being put up here.
12-10-17	Raptors -8 v. Kings		102-87	Win	100	7 h 12 m	Show
The Raptors average 15 points more per game than the Kings. I consider the Raptors a "B" level team, while the Kings are in my "F" level with the Bulls, Suns and Hawks. The questions here are the Raptors' motivaiton level and how much of a home-court edge do the Kings have? Toronto should have strong incentive since Sacramento swept them last season. The Raptors are playing their best ball averaging 115 points during their past 11 games while going 5-0 during their past five games. DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka easily give Toronto the three best players on the court. Sacramento ranks last in scoring at 96.4 points a game. The Kings are returning home after a 116-109 upset road win against the Pelicans on Friday. This is the Kings' first home game following four consecutive road games. That trip began 10 days ago. So this isn't a good situational spot for the Kings, who actually could be in letdown mode, too, after surprising the Pelicans. It's another added plus for the Raptors if Kings center Willie Cauley-Stein has to miss a third consecutive game due to a bad back.
12-10-17	Packers v. Browns +3.5		27-21	Loss	-105	70 h 25 m	Show
Points are going to be at a premium in this cold-weather matchup with winds in the 15 mph range. The Packers aren't good enough minus Aaron Rodgers to lay points on the road. The Browns are winless. Yes, that is a fact. It's a mistake, though, to underrate them in this home matchup when they are starved for a victory and catch the Packers perhaps looking ahead to next week when Aaron Rodgers is eligible to return. Cleveland can play effective defense. The Browns have better defensive statistics than the Packers giving up the 10th-fewest yards in the league. The Packers, by contrast, rank 25th in defensive yardage. The Browns held the Chargers to 19 points in Los Angeles last week, while the Packers gave up nearly 400 yards to the Buccaneers at home this past Sunday despite Tampa Bay missing its best running back, Doug Martin, and two of its better starting offensive linemen. The Packers have injuries in their secondary. Cleveland has receiving weapons now to take advantage with Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman healthy to join athletic tight end David Njoku and running back Duke Johnson out of the backfield. Quarterback has been the Browns' downfall. But if there's a quarterback who has been as bad, if not even worse than DeShone Kizer, it is Brett Hundley, who has a 70.8 passer rating and a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hundley passed for just 84 yards last week against the Buccaneers, who rank second-to-last in pass defense and were missing starting cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and safety T.J. Ward. Hundley offers no downfield passing threat. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have done nothing with Hundley at quarterback. The Packers are going to take a conservative approach here running Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones knowing aggressive Browns defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is going to be putting in exotic blitz packages to take advantage of Hundley's lack of pocket presence. The strength of the Browns is their sixth-ranked run defense. So don't look for the Packers to put up many points. I find Mike McCarthy to be an extremely overrated coach fortunate to be propped up by Rodgers. The Packers are 4-15-1 under McCarthy when Rodgers hasn't played.
12-10-17	Cowboys v. Giants +4		30-10	Loss	-110	25 h 12 m	Show
It's been an emotional week for the Giants with Ben McAdoo getting fired and Eli Manning restored as the starting quarterback. Usually controversial weeks are not good for the concentration of a team. But in the Giants' case this is good because it should wake them up. The Giants have underachieved all season. Part of this has been because of a toxic atmosphere. Now, at least for this game against a hated division rival, the Giants should play with passion and intensity. Their defense still has good players and Manning is a big upgrade on Geno Smith. New York has held Dallas to an average of 15 points during the past three meetings. The Cowboys aren't that good without suspended Ezekiel Elliott. Not having him has trickled down to everyone including Dak Prescott, who has a 64.3 passer rating minus Elliott compared to 97.9 with him. Both teams are 1-3 in their last four games. The Cowboys' win during this span came against the Redskins last week at home, 38-14. Dallas was not as special as that score might indicate, though, as the Redskins allowed a punt return for a touchdown and were minus four in turnovers. The Cowboys averaged just 4.2 yards per play. Dallas also has a long injury list. I expect cornerback Orlando Scandrick and David Irving, their second-best pass rusher, to be out for sure.
12-10-17	Bears +6.5 v. Bengals		33-7	Win	100	22 h 15 m	Show
The Bears aren't good. But neither are the 5-7 Bengals. Cincinnati has just two victories by more than four points. The Bengals are in no position to lay this many points following their brutal Monday night loss to the Steelers, which realistically eliminated them from playoff contention. Marvin Lewis is coaching his final season. He's not going to be able to get his team up for the lowly Bears after they blew a 17-point lead to the Steelers. The Bengals would be hard-pressed to cover a touchdown even if they were healthy - which they are not. The battered Bengals may be minus seven starters if star defensive tackle Geno Atkins can't go because of a toe injury. The Bengals already are down their best running back, Joe MIxon, and top tackler, Vontaze Burfict. They also aren't likely to have linebacker Nick Virgil and three/fourths of their starting secondary with Adam Jones, Dre Kilpatrick and Shawn Williams all injured. I'm not a fan of John Fox. But I can at least trust the Bears to put forth a strong effort against Cincinnati. Fox is coaching for his future. HIs team won't quit. The Bengals offense isn't strong enough to product many points, which the oddsmaker acknowledges with this low total, and their defense is extremely beat-up. The Bears will hang in and are live 'dogs to win straight-up.
12-09-17	Senators +148 v. Sharks		0-5	Loss	-100	15 h 0 m	Show
San Jose is a declining team that is in a letdown position after rallying from a 3-0 deficit to pull off a dramatic 5-4 home victory against Carolina on Thursday. The Sharks can't be faulted for taking the Senators lightly. Ottawa has lost 10 of its last 11. However, the Senators have shown signs of breaking out of their slump. They nearly ended the Kings' win streak in their last game losing 4-3 on Thursday. Ottawa overachieved last season reaching the Eastern Conference finals. But the Senators are better than they have shown during their current skid. The Senators have disappointed offensively, but the Sharks are scoring even less goals. San Jose ranks 29th in scoring at 2.6 goals per game. The Senators have won five of the past six in this series. They are 4-1 in their last five games at San Jose.
12-09-17	Rockets v. Blazers OVER 215.5		124-117	Win	100	5 h 48 m	Show
The Rockets are averaging 116.1 points in their last six games. That would rank No. 2 in the NBA if computed for the entire season. It's not a fluke. The Rockets' offense has picked up with Chris Paul back from injury. He's made James Harden even more dangerous. The Trail Blazers have a strong scoring backcourt themselves and will have lots of energy having been idle since Tuesday.
12-09-17	Golden Knights v. Stars OVER 6		5-3	Win	100	3 h 29 m	Show
These two teams have met twice and both times the game went Under. I don't see that occurring a third straight time. The Golden Knights are a huge Over team. Las Vegas is 18-8-2 to the Over this season, including a 10-4-1 Over record on the road. The Golden Knights are the third-highest scoring team in the league, but rank in the bottom 10 in the major defensive categories. Dallas is back to its poor defensive ways giving up an average of four goals in its past two games. The Stars will have Ben Bishop back in net today. Still, I like the Over as the Stars have scored a minimum of three goals in seven of their last 10 games.
12-09-17	Magic v. Hawks -2		110-117	Win	100	10 h 59 m	Show
Atlanta is in short revenge after losing 110-106 to Orlando on the road this past Wednesday. The Hawks blew a nine-point fourth quarter lead and had several controversial calls go against them. Orlando forced overtime by scoring with three seconds left in regulation. The Hawks have been idle since while the Magic were beaten at home by the Nuggets, 103-89, last night. The Magic's offense looked terrible in that game minus injured Evan Fournier, their second-leading scorer and top 3-point marksman. Making it worse for the Magic are they lost leading scorer Aaron Gordon in that loss. He suffered a concussion. Neither he nor Fournier will play against the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA. But Orlando is in free-fall losing 12 of its last 15 games. The Magic are short-handed with swingman Terrence Ross and Jonathan Isaac also out. Orlando is playing for the third time in four days and without rest. So the spot and situation set up well for the Hawks, who have covered four of their last six and are 11-3 in their last 14 home games versus Orlando.
12-09-17	Magic v. Hawks UNDER 210		110-117	Loss	-110	10 h 58 m	Show
Orlando is now down its top two scorers with Aaron Gordon suffering a concussion in the Magic's 103-89 loss to the Nuggets last night, a game which went Under the total by 26 points. The Magic already are without Evan Fournier, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. Fournier is the Magic's top perimeter shooter. His absence was felt very much last night on the offensive end. The Magic have a thin bench, too, with swingman Terrence Ross and Jonathan Isaac out. This marks the Magic's third game in four days and second in two nights. Considering the fatigue factor and multiple injuries, I expect the Magic to play at a slow pace. The Hawks have held their last two opponents to an average of 93 points during regulation. The Magic haven't been playing bad defense either holding foes to an average of 100.7 points per game in regulation during their last four games. Orlando hosted Atlanta this past Wednesday and the teams combined for just 192 points in regulation before Orlando won, 110-106 in overtime. Fournier and Gordon combined for 51 points in that game.
12-09-17	Jets v. Lightning OVER 6		3-4	Win	100	3 h 48 m	Show
These are two high-powered offenses going here. Winnipeg ranks fifth in scoring. The Jets are averaging five goals per game in their last five games if you discount a flat 5-1 loss to the Red Wings. The Lightning are the highest scoring team in the NHL. They have tallied 16 goals in their last three games. Tampa Bay also has scored at least one power play goal in eight consecutive games and 13 of its last 14. So until proven otherwise, I have to go Over this total.
12-09-17	Islanders v. Bruins OVER 6		1-3	Loss	-100	2 h 28 m	Show
The Islanders are almost an automatic Over team. Only one of their last 12 games has gone Under. They are the No. 2 scoring team in the league. They have scored at least five goals in seven of their past 12 games. The Bruins have gotten healthy and picked up their scoring. Boston has taillied four or more goals in six of their last eight games. The Bruins can take advantage of the Islanders' last ranked penalty killing unit.
12-09-17	Valparaiso +2.5 v. Ball State		70-71	Win	100	3 h 47 m	Show
I see Ball State in a letdown spot after upsetting Notre Dame as an 18-point road underdog in its last game. The Crusaders, on the other hand, are in bounce back mode. They were 8-0 until their last game when they were buried by Purdue. The Crusaders have covered 11 of the past 16 times following a loss.
12-08-17	Celtics v. Spurs UNDER 197.5	Top	102-105	Loss	-106	12 h 4 m	Show
Not only are the Cetics and Spurs the top two defenses in the NBA, but they also play at a slow pace. Boston gives up the fewest points per game and ranks second in defensive field goal percentage. San Antonio yields the second-fewest points per game and ranks fourth in defensive rebounding. So I see this total as being too high. My opinion also is formed by the high caliber of coaches and the possible injury factor. I rate Gregg Popovich and Brad Stevens as the two best coaches in the NBA. They are going to treat this matchup like a chess game. Boston's rotation could get really stretched if Jaylen Brown and Marcus Morris both have to miss the game due to injuries. That would mean increased minutes for Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis, none of whom are noted for their offensive prowess. There is a chance the Spurs get back Kawhi Leonard, the best defensive player in the league, for this game.
12-08-17	Cavs -3 v. Pacers		102-106	Loss	-115	10 h 32 m	Show
The Cavaliers are gunning for a franchise-best 14th consecutive victory. I see them getting it here in a revenge spot. Indiana upset the Cavaliers, 124-107, as a 10-point road 'dog at the start of November. The Cavaliers were really struggling on defense back then ranking last. Now, during their 13-game game win streak, the Cavaliers have had the sixth-best defense. Cleveland has been strong on the road going 16-6-1 ATS in its past 23 away contests, including 8-4 this season. The Cavaliers also are going for a club-record eighth road win in a row. LeBron James is in the MVP discussion. He's the only player in the NBA to average 25 points, eight rebounds and eight assists per game. The Pacers are 14-11. All but four of their victories, though, have come against below .500 opponents. Cleveland has covered the past five times it has played against a winning foe. It's a plus for the Cavaliers if Tristan Thompson can return for this game after being out with a calf strain.
12-07-17	Rockets v. Jazz OVER 208		112-101	Win	100	21 h 14 m	Show
The Rockets always were offensive-inclined, but now with Chris Paul back full throttle they could be the highest scoring team in the NBA. Houston has scored 117 points or more in each of its last five games. What makes this Over work, though, is Utah also has been high scoring. The Jazz were averaging 115.5 points in their last six games - all victories - until running out of gas in their last game two nights ago against Oklahoma City. The Thunder is a very good defensive team. Still, the Jazz were leading 80-68 after three quarters before falling down due to fatigue. This will be Rudy Gobert's third game back since returning from injury. His presence as perhaps the best rim protector in the Western Conference do affect the dynamics of Utah. However, the Jazz transformed themselves into more of an up-tempo, offensive-minded team when Gobert was out. They had success at it, too. So they are not going to completely revert back to their half-court ways. Plus Gobert still is working his way back into playing shape. Donovan Mitchell is becoming a below-the-radar star averaging 29.3 points in his last four games. No team fires up more 3-pointers than the Rockets. They are a long-range perimeter team no matter who the opponent is so Gobert has less effect on them. Gobert played in the team's first meeting. It was no contest. The Rockets buried the Jazz, 137-110, at home on Nov. 5. James Harden had a career-high 56 points. The Rockets didn't have Paul for that game either. Harden and the Rockets are even more potent with Paul.
12-07-17	Saints v. Falcons +1.5	Top	17-20	Win	100	27 h 4 m	Show
It's always rough being the visitor for the Thursday night NFL game. The Saints' journey is made even more difficult by how late it is in the season when the wear-and-tear really takes a toll. The Saints had a very early bye, too, being idle in Week 5. This marks their third straight marquee matchup having traveled to LA to face the Rams two weeks ago and hosting the Panthers this past Sunday, which was a late day start. These two teams are very even with balanced, potent offenses and improved defenses. But getting the Falcons at home on a short week is worth more than a normal home field advantage especially with the Saints being the more banged-up team. Atlanta has been home for the past three weeks so it has a nice situational edge. Both teams are going to play hard. The Falcons have more at stake, though, besides protecting their home field. They need to win to keep the Saints from taking a major step in clinching the NFC South Division. A loss also would drop the Falcons to 7-6 and put them in the thick of trying to qualify for a highly-competitive wild-card spot. Drew Brees is a future Hall of Famer. Matt Ryan is the reigning MVP. Brees historically has been less effective on the road. Julio Jones is the best wideout on the field. He'll be especially dangerous if Marshon Lattimore, the Saints prize rookie cornerback, can't play, or is hobbled, by an ankle injury that has caused him to miss the past two games. If you can't contain Jones, you can't beat the Falcons. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are one of the best running back tandems in the league. They are trumped, however, by Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. They've scored 16 of the Saints' NFL-leading 19 rushing touchdowns. There is a catch here, though: The Saints have key injuries besides Lattimore. Ingram has a toe injury. He didn't practice Wednesday and is questionable. Karma is a sprinter not a workhorse. His effectiveness could be compromised without Ingram to do the heavy lifting. There is more. The Saints also could be minus two starting offensive linemen. Left guard Andrus Peat already has been declared out with a groin injury. He had played in every one of New Orleans' snaps on offense. Left tackle Terron Armstread is questionalbe. He missed last Sunday's game with a groin injury, too. So the short week really hits the Saints hard. The injury news is much brigther for the Falcons. Their star cornerback, Desmond Trufant, has been cleared from his concussion symptoms that caused him to miss last Sunday's 14-9 loss to the Vikings. Nickel back Brian Poole also missed that game due to a back injury. He's expected to play, too. Pick'em type games often are the hardest to get involved in. So while this is far from a max unit recommendation, the Falcons have enough going for them with situation, home field on a short week and favorable injury status to get the nod.
12-07-17	Jets -104 v. Panthers		4-6	Loss	-104	7 h 9 m	Show
I like the Jets this season and I like them especially off a loss where they have won the past six times following a defeat. Winnipeg ranks fifth in scoring while Florida is 27th defensively. The Jets have plenty of firepower with Blake Wheeler, who leads the NHL in assists, Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers. The Jets get to face Panthers second-string goalie James Reimer, who is one of the lesser backups in the league with an .892 save percentage and 3.67 GAA. Regular Florida goalie Roberto Luongo is injured again. The Jets should be highly motivated after losing 5-1 to the Red Wings on Tuesday. Winnipeg is likely to go with Eric Comrie in net. He's a top prospect, who is 8-4-1 with a .927 save percentage in 13 starts for Manitoba in the AHL. Comrie faces a Panthers squad that has scored two or fewr goals in seven of their last 10 games.
12-06-17	Flyers v. Oilers OVER 5.5		4-2	Win	100	9 h 47 m	Show
The Flyers showed offensive life in their last game beating the Flames on the road two nights ago, 5-2. Now the Flyers draw Edmonton, which ranks 27th defensively and is last in killing penalties. The Oilers have given up nine power play goals in their last nine games. The Oilers have shown steady offensive improvement scoring three or more goals in seven of their last eight games. Consequently, the Flyers have permitted three or more goals in nine of their last 10 games. I'm expecting Connor McDavid to play. He has been sick but practiced on Tuesday. Another plus for the Over is the goaltending. I'm not impressed with Philadelphia's goalies and Edmonton's Laurent Brossoit is one of the worst backups in the league. Brossoit is filling in for injured Cam Talbot. He's 1-4-1 with a 3.81 GAA and .872 save percentage.
12-06-17	Warriors -5 v. Hornets	Top	101-87	Win	100	15 h 59 m	Show
The Warriors are still an outstanding team without Stephen Curry. They want to prove that on national TV against the Hornets here. Golden State has been playing well and when that happens no team can come close to the Warriors. The Warriors have won four in a row averaging 127 points during this span. All of these victories have come on the road where the Warriors have covered 19 of their last 27 away contests. Golden State has won its last three games by a combined 39 points against the Magic, Heat and Pelicans. The Hornets aren't any better than the Heat and Pelicans. Charlotte is 1-4 in its last five games with its lone win occurring this past Monday at home against the Magic, 104-94. The Hornets didn't play well, though. They were bailed out by a huge free throw advantage. They made 33 of 40 free throws while the Magic were able to get to the line only 14 times. The Hornets rank 26th in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. The Warriors are first in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. Golden State has beaten Charlotte six straight times, including the last three in Charlotte. The Warriors have a lot of fans in the area because of Curry.
12-06-17	Pistons +4 v. Bucks		100-104	Push	0	6 h 51 m	Show
Detroit is better than Milwaukee and in stop-the-pain mode trying to salvage one game out of its four-game road trip. Detroit didn't play well against the Wizards to begin their trip, but then suffered tough close losses against the 76ers and Spurs. The Pistons have covered nine of their 13 road contests this season. They are 8-1 ATS when getting three or more points, which is the case here. On deck for the Pistons are the Warriors and Celtics, the two-best teams in basketball. So they really need to win this game. The Bucks have proven untrustworthy going 3-6-1 ATS at home this season and 2-5 ATS when laying five points or fewer. Milwaukee has some outstanding talent. But the Bucks are not well coached, rank last in 3-point defense and don't rebound well making them vulnerable to rebounding leader Andre Drummond.