R.A. Dickey isn't having a good season. But Jered Weaver is having a worst year. So are the Angels. 
The Angels are 1-7 in their last eight games, losers of four in a row. They have fallen into last place in the AL West, a team likely headed for an embarrassing 90 losses. Weaver would be better off pitching on extra rest. The Angels are 3-9 during his past 12 starts when he's gone on four day's rest. 
But the Angels don't have that luxury. They've lost all their quality starting pitchers to injuries. It's amazing that Weaver is last man standing. 

Weaver has surrendered a career-worst 35 homers on the season, including 12 during his last seven starts. Toronto ranks No. 3 in the majors in homers. 
Dickey is a knuckleballer. He's at his best in night games and when the weather is good. That's the case here. The 41-year-old also should be feeling fit since he last pitched 11 days ago. 
The Blue Jays are trying to chase down a wild-card berth. They can't afford to lose to the lowly Angels especially with a road series against the Mariners following this series. 

These two teams met two months ago and Hamilton buried Montreal, 31-7, despite not playing an "A" game, or having quarterback Zach Collaros.
Now the timing is even worse for Montreal. 
The Tiger-Cats scored 11 points versus the Blue Bombers in their last game before Collaros was named the starter. In five games since then, Hamilton is averaging 37 points during its past five games. Collaros has a 112.7 quarterback rating with a 15-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
Hamilton is off a flat spot having just lost to Toronto, 33-21, after beating the Argonauts, 49-36, at home two weeks ago. The Tiger-Cats are 11-5 ATS the past 16 times following a non-cover. They've won by double-digits the past two times at home following a road defeat. 
But not only is this a play-on spot for Hamilton, but it's a heavy fade, too, against Montreal. The Alouettes are in turmoil. They are 3-8 on the season (2-8 ATS in their last 10 games) and have a lot of dissension. Montreal coach and general manager Jim Popp traded quarterback Kevin Glenn before his team's last game. Second-year man Rakeem Cato is now the Alouettes' quarterback and he's clashed with his receivers. This past Tuesday Cato had to be removed from the practice field after shouting and pushing the team's leading receiver, Duron Carter. The two had gotten into a spat the previous week, too.
This is what Carter was quoted as saying this past Wednesday, "We lost a quarterback (Glenn). It's not helping our team. ... There's no way we can say we're better without Kevin." 
This isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for Cato. Carter had been suspended earlier this season. The players aren't happy with Popp. The locker room, according to sources, is a train wreck. 
Montreal scored one touchdown on offense last week. During the previous five games, the Alouettes have scored fewer than 19 points four times. If you can't score in the CFL you can't cover. 

Biased by the Bills playing at home on a short week, oddsmakers opened Buffalo a favorite against the Jets.
Wrong. By Wednesday afternoon, the marketplace already was in full correction mode. Yes, it's difficult being the road team for a Thursday matchup. But this is just a short trip for the Jets and these division rivals know each other extremely well. So normal negatives for a Thursday road team aren't really a factor for this game. 
Rex Ryan, of course, used to coach the Jets failing to make the playoffs during his last four years from 2011-2014. The Jets won four games in Ryan's last season two years ago. New York won 10 games under Todd Bowles, Ryan's replacement, last season. 
No defense suffered more regression than the Bills last season when Ryan came on board. The Jets hold a huge head coaching edge. They also have a sharper offensive coordinator. Chan Gailey helped the Jets set team records in total yards, passing yards and completed passes last season accomplishing that with former Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. 
Greg Roman is the Bills' offensive coordinator. He's one of the least innovative and most ineffective coordinators in the NFL. A work-in-progress Ravens defense held the Bills offense to 160 yards of offense and 11 first downs in a 13-7 opening week victory. Roman's ultra conservative game plan didn't help. Neither did the play of Tyrod Taylor, whose feel good story of a year ago could take some serious regression now that opposing defensive gurus - such as Bowles - have had a year of film to study him. Taylor has never played worse. 
The Bills are going to be missing key players on both sides of the ball. Fitzpatrick is at his worst when he's forcing things. That shouldn't happen here, though, with the Bills minus projected rookie starting linebackers Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland - both injured - and suspended Pro Bowl nose tackle Marcell Dareus.  
The Jets, meanwhile, welcome back Sheldon Richardson, who was suspended for just the first game. There may not be a better defensive line trio than the Jets' Muhammad Wilkerson, Leonard Williams and Richardson. Wilkerson already is a star and this looks like Williams' breakout season. 
Buffalo is going to have to deal with the Jets' dominant defensive line minus offensive left tackle Cordy Glenn, out with an ankle injury. His replacement, Cyrus Kouandjio, struggled against the Ravens. 
LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are the Bills' playmakers. McCoy has been disappointing the past couple of seasons and could be on the downside of his career while Watkins is enduring pain from his surgically repaired left foot. There's even the possibility he may not play. 
Prideful Darrelle Revis was torched by A.J. Green last week. Revis isn't in the discussion anymore for best cornerback. But he's still Darrelle Revis and he'll be going all out to redeem himself probably locked on Watkins. 

Junior Guerra is Milwaukee's best starter. Tim Adleman may be Cincinnati's worst starter. The two meet today and the price is right to back the Brewers. 
The Brewers are 8-2 the past 10 times Guerra has pitched on the road. Opponents are batting .216 against Guerra. The Reds are likely to be without two starters - outfielder Billy Hamilton and shortstop Zack Cosart. Hamilton leads the majors in steals. 
Adleman is lucky to be in a big league rotation. The Reds have endured lots of injuries to their starting pitchers so Adleman has had an opportunity. The Reds are 2-5 in his last seven starts. Adleman has been plagued by giving up home runs - 10 in 46 1/3 innings - and he's pitching in one of the best homer parks in baseball, Great American Ball Park. 
The Brewers lead the majors in steals and have power with Chris Carter, who ranks third in the National League in homers, Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana. 

The Royals desperately need this game. Look for Yordano Ventura to help the Royals get it done against an A's squad that has dropped 14 of their past 20 away contests.
The Royals are 15 games above .500 at home on the season while the A's are 11 game below .500 on the road. 
Oakland has been using a lot of young pitchers as it plays out the string. Sean Manaea is one of these youngsters. He's been out since Aug. 29 with back trouble and his pitch count will be limited. Manaea came up in the the Kansas City organization so the Royals should have a good scouting report. 
Oakland is 1-7 in Manae's road starts. In those eight road outings, Manaea is 0-6 with a 6.44 ERA. Batters are hitting .302 off him. 
Ventura is at his best when pitching at Kauffman Stadium. He's 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA there since the All-Star break. The Royals are 26-10 in Ventura's last 36 home starts. 

The Phillies are in a full blown youth movement during these final weeks of the regular season while the Pirates are in must-win mode chasing what has now become a long shot playoff berth. They certainly can not take a loss here.
That shouldn't happen with a pitching matchup of Ivan Nova versus Alec Asher. 
Nova has been the Pirates most consistent pitcher since coming from the Yankees. He's 5-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in seven starts with Pittsburgh. 
Asher went 0-6 with a 9.31 ERA in seven starts for the Phillies last season. Then he served an 80-game suspension for the use of performance-enhancing drugs. Now he's resurfaced in the midst of the Phillies' rebuilding efforts to make his second start of the season.
Asher made his 2016 major league debut against the Nationals on the road this past Thursday. He went six innings and didn't allow a run giving up just two hits and one walk. Because of that performance this line is relatively cheap. But a look inside Asher's performance against the Nationals shows just how lucky and out of whack it was.
Asher allowed 80 percent more fly-ball outs than ground-ball outs and didn't strike out a batter. This was the most misleading pitching line perhaps of the season and the fade is on against Asher in this game especially against a hot Nova and desperate Pirates team. 

Given the low quality of these two offenses, the oddsmaker opened this total way too high. Unfortunately the marketplace realizes this and the total has been bet down since I released the play. I still like the play but at less than 43 the unit rating goes down.
San Francisco finished last in points in 2015 averaging fewer than 15 points per game. The Rams were 29th in points putting up less than 18 per game.
The Rams are a conservative, ground emphasis team that has a bottom-five passing attack. 
The total opened higher than it should have been because Chip Kelly now coaches the 49ers. But he has perhaps the worst skill position talent in the NFC. The Rams' strength is their defense, particularly their pass rush. It should have no problem keeping check-down quarterback Blaine Gabbert from making big plays.The 49ers are a work-in-progress. This is their first game under Kelly. 
Kelly may even alter his ultra up-tempo style to protect his defense knowing this is one of the few games the 49ers have a legitimate chance of winning.  

Martin Perez can't pitch on the road, and 32-year-old Doug Fister is out of gas. So I'm expecting double-digit runs to be scored at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park tonight.
These are two solid offenses, too. The Rangers rank seventh in runs scored while the Astros are 12th. 
Perez is 2-8 with a 6.00 ERA in 14 road starts this season. He has a 4.85 ERA in two starts versus the Astros this season. 
Fister has a 10.95 ERA in his last three starts giving up 26 hits and five walks in just 12 1/3 innings during this span with only three strikeouts. The right-hander has a 5.18 ERA in 14 career outings against the Rangers, including posting a 4.57 ERA in four starts versus Texas this season. 
The over has cashed in eight of the Rangers' last nine games versus a righty starter.  

I'm not sure if the Colts would win this game if they were healthy - which they are not. Indy, in fact, is heavily banged-up. Out are the Colts' best defensive back, Vontae Davis, best defensive lineman, Henry Anderson, and one of their few decent offensive linemen left guard Jake Mewhort. 
The oddsmaker has devalued Detroit too much because of the retirement of Calvin Johnson.
Matthew Stafford was one of the hottest quarterbacks during the second half of the season last year with the second-highest passer rating during the last eight games and a 19-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that span. If not for an Aaron Rodgers' Hail Mary touchdown pass the Lions would have gone 7-1 in their last eight games. 
Johnson, of course, will be missed but the Lions still have three excellent wide receivers in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and a still effective Anquan Boldin. The Colts have two new cornerbacks, over-the-hill veteran Antonio Cromartie and rookie T.J. Green. The Colts aren't going to be able to stop the Lions' passing game while the Colts may not be able to keep up with their beat up offensive line. 

Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. 
After losing to a bad 49ers team last year on the road in their opener, the Vikings should be fully prepared this time around. They know they can't take a loss with the Packers and Panthers up next in Weeks 2 and 3. The Vikings rebounded from that defeat to the 49ers to cover their last seven road games. Peterson and an emerging defense are an excellent road formula. 
The Titans have lost 14 of their 16 home games during the last two seasons. Marcus Mariota is a promising second-year quarterback, but the Titans are in a huge rebuilding stage. They have a lot of youth, new starters and lack receiving weapons for Mariota. Their talent level can't compare to the Vikings. 

I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. 
Both teams are slow-motion, grind-out types where points mean something. So taking more than a field goal is big. Last year, all but five of the Bears' games were decided by five points or less. 
The Bears are well coached and fundamentally sound. John Fox is 30-12 ATS on the road in his NFL coaching career and knows the Texans and Osweiler from when he coached the Broncos. The Bears covered six of their last seven away games last season. 
I'm expecting a strong defensive game plan from Fox and his ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with so much time to prepare. I'll take their experience, savvy and tricks against Osweiler and a vanilla Houston offense that had to deal with multiple offensive line injuries during preseason and isn't likely to be in sync here.
The Bears offense is ready to take off and become a lot more vertical with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Jay Cutler is far more effective with a healthy Jeffery. 

The Chargers will be seeing blood here in a double revenge spot. This year the Chargers are healthy in the offensive line, improved defensively and have Ken Whisenhunt back as their offensive coordinator, a huge plus for Philip Rivers. 
Keenan Allen is back, too, for the Chargers. Expect much better from Melvin Gordon. The Chiefs aren't going to be able to control Rivers especially with their top front seven defender, Justin Houston, out. The Chiefs lose a huge portion of their pass rush with Houston out. 
Kansas City also is likely to be without its best running back, Jamaal Charles. His replacements are nothing special. 
Bottom line is this is too many points for the Chiefs to be laying in a division matchup. 

Washington State under Mike Leach has been at its best versus strong competition and as a road 'dog, both of which are in play here. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus above .500 opponents and have covered 12 of the last 15 times as an away underdog. 
The Cougars have proven their road strength by winning at Oregon, UCLA, USC, Arizona and California during the past three years under Leach. 
Certainly the Cougars have the offense to hang with Boise State sparked by quarterback Luke Falk and wide receiver Gabe Marks. They can hurt a Boise State defense that does not have a stellar pass rush nor secondary. 
It's on defense where the oddsmaker doubts Washington State with this line after the Cougars lost, 45-42, to Eastern Washington as heavy favorites during opening week. 
But Eastern Washington has an underrated offense and the Cougars were without their best defensive player, suspended safety Shalom Luani. He's back from suspension now and will play here, which should greatly shore up the Cougars' secondary. 

Saskatchewan isn't going anywhere at 1-9. The Roughriders' season is essentially finished - except for this game. This is going to be their Super Bowl. 
These two teams just met this past Sunday in their annual Labour Day Classic. The Roughriders lost in controversial fashion. They outgained the Blue Bombers, but fell 28-25 on a field goal during the final play of the game. 
Winnipeg probably should not have been in position to win the game because the referees disallowed an interception by Justin Cox with 28 seconds left instead penalizing him for pass interference even though it was reported that Cox had provided textbook coverage on the play.
The Blue Bombers should be feeling fat and happy having won five in a row and returning home for the first time since Aug. 12. They are in a prime ambush spot with the Roughriders in short revenge. 
Winnipeg has played worse at home than on the road. The Blue Bombers are 1-3 SU and ATS at home this season and have failed to cover eight of the past 11 times they've met a foe with a losing record.  

The spread doesn't reflect the vast difference between these two teams. Not to mention that Duke's David Cutcliffe is one of my favorite coaches as the Blue Devils are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games. 
Duke might appear down this season, although quarterback Daniel Jones' play against NC Central last week was a cause for optimism, but the Blue Devils are still a touchdown better than lowly Wake Forest. 
The Demon Deacons gained only 175 yards against Tulane last week in a 7-3 victory. The Demon Deacons can't match Duke's passing game. The Blue Devils should have their confidence up scoring on seven of their first 10 possessions last week. 
Duke has won and covered each of the past four seasons versus Wake Forest with each victory coming by six or more points. 

Wisconsin is one of the great party schools and I can see the Badgers still celebrating their opening week upset victory against LSU, the Badgers' biggest win over a higher-ranked opponent since 2010 when they knocked off top-ranked Ohio State.

Akron became decent last year finishing 8-5, including posting a 23-21 victory against Utah State in a bowl game. 
The Zips are a dangerous foe for the Badgers and not just because of the timing. Akron spreads the field and has a good quarterback, Thomas Woodson. He was the MAC Player of the Week this past week after throwing a school-record six touchdown passes in a 47-24 win against Virginia Military.
Now I fully get that there's a jump as wide as the Grand Canyon going from Virginia Military to playing Wisconsin especially in Madison. But the Badgers are at their best defensively going against power run teams such as LSU where their strength of playing good assignment football shows through. They are more vulnerable if forced to cover the field defending against a spread offense. 
Wisconsin also has offensive line issues due to injuries and a surprise retirement and its quarterback situation appears weak as usual. 

On paper a pitching matchup of Clayton Kershaw versus Jose Fernandez justifies this low total.
But the reality of these two meeting here is much different.
Kershaw hasn't pitched since June 26 due to a back injury. He's sure to be on a pitch count. He also could be very rusty and pitching tentatively given his back woes. 
"We're still working the kinks out," Kershaw was quoted as saying about this start.
Kershaw gave up a season-high five runs when he faced the Marlins back in April. The Marlins have their power back with Marcell Ozuna and Justin Bour returning to the lineup and Giancarlo Stanton able to pinch-hit and possibly play in the field. 
Fernandez is approaching his career-high in innings pitched possibly exceeding it in his next start. The work load is getting to Fernandez, who is 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA during his last seven starts. During this span he's surrendered 48 hits in 39 2/3 innings.
The Dodgers have been swinging hot bats averaging six runs per game during their last seven games.

I see the Panthers getting their revenge on the Broncos after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. Carolina didn't lose the Super Bowl based on talent. The Panthers out-gained the Broncos by 121 yards and had 10 more first downs than Denver.
Certainly the Broncos are worthy of respect despite their less-than-inspiring quarterback situation. But Carolina is the more complete team extremely strong on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton just had his worst game of the season in the Super Bowl.
Newton, of course, is the real deal and gives the Panthers a monster quarterback edge. He has his top receiver weapon, Kelvin Benjamin, back now which wasn't the case in the Super Bowl. 
Denver's defense still is top-notch, but several important players did leave. Carolina lost its great cornerback, Josh Norman. But the Panthers rate far better than the Broncos with a top-three quarterback compared to a bottom-three quarterback. 
The right team is favored here. 

The Diamondbacks are better on the road than at home. They have a very potent lineup with A.J. Pollock back joining Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Jean Segura and Yasmany Tomas. 
I expect this lineup to tee off on rookie Brock Stewart, making just his fourth big-league start. Stewart is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA. 
So I'll take what I consider to be a generous 'dog price backed by the superior starting pitcher, Robbie Ray. Only four pitchers have more strikeouts in the National League than Ray this season. Ray also has a 1.95 lifetime ERA versus the Dodgers in six starts. 

The price is right to back the home favorite White Sox in a lopsided pitching matchup of Anibal Sanchez versus Jose Quintana. 
Sanchez isn't long to stay in Detroit's starting rotation as Jordan Zimmerman has returned from the DL. Sanchez is 7-13 with a 5.70 ERA. He's done his worst on the road, away from pitcher-friendly Comerica Park with a 3-7 mark and 7.11 ERA. Detroit is 2-9 in Sanchez's road starts.
Sanchez isn't in good form - 17 earned runs in his last six starts spanning 36 2/3 innings - and has a 4.96 lifetime ERA in 12 games against the White Sox. 
Quintana has the second-lowest ERA in the American League. Quintana is coming off a rare bad start. I want him here on the rebound. The Tigers aren't likely to have Ian Kinsler, who has an injured ring finger and isn't expected back into the lineup until Friday. 

This is an important start for Clay Bucholz making his return to Boston's starting rotation. He's in a great pitcher's park and has shown he's past his early-season problems. Buchholz has a 2.35 ERA during his past 15 1/3 innings. He's allowed just two runs during his last two starts. 
Another key here is that Buchholz is fresh, which is rare and important for a starting pitcher this late into the season. He has thrown just one inning since last Tuesday and three innings since Aug. 24. 
The Padres are 10 games under .500 since the All-Star break and in full rebuild mode. One of their major weaknesses is the bottom of the rotation where Paul Clemens is going to make his eighth start for them. Clemens is 1-4 with a 4.79 ERA. He is averaging 4 1/3 innings per start. Clemens is bad and so is the Padres' bullpen. The Red Sox are No. 1 in the league in runs and batting average. They also have won 15 of their last 21 interleague games. 

The Nationals return home where they have beaten the Braves 21 of the past 26 times.
This game certainly doesn't figure to be close with unheralded converted reliever Ryan Weber making his first start of the season due to Matt Wisler being out. 
Half of the handicap is fading second-year man Weber, who was 0-3 in five starts last season and has a 5.24 ERA this year. The longest he's pitched this season is 3 2/3 innings. That was back in April. 
The other half of the handicap is playing on Nationals ace Max Scherzer, who is having another superb season and is in excellent form allowing a combined two runs on five hits in his last two starts spanning 16 innings with a 21-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Scherzer has given up fewer than three earned runs during each of his last seven home starts. 
The Nationals have dominated the Braves this year winning 11 of 13 times. 

If it weren't for Minnesota, Oakland would have the worst record in the American League.
Here's the thing, though, about this game: 
Kendall Graveman is going for the A's against Eduardo Rodriguez. Graveman is Oakland's best pitcher and is throwing extremely well with a 2-1 record and 1.59 ERA in his last three games. He's been consistent in his last 17 starts with a 3.36 ERA. Graveman is going to keep the A's in this game. 
Eduardo Rodriguez is the weak link in Boston's starting rotation. The second-year player has a 5.14 ERA in seven road starts this season. He hasn't won in his last seven starts.
Rodriguez also hasn't pitched since Aug. 28 when he surrendered five runs in 5 1/3 innings against Kansas City. 
The A's have been embarrassed during the first two games of this series being outscored 27-4. The A's should be motivated to avoid the sweep behind their best pitcher. Their best relief pitchers are rested. 

Winnipeg is hot with four straight victories that have coincided since Matt Nichols was installed as its starting quarterback. Saskatchewan is 1-8, 3-6 ATS. 
But those records can be thrown out in this annual Labour Day Classic. The game is a sell-out in Saskatchewan. It's also the Roughriders' season. If they can't get a win here - in a home game they are going all out to win - then there really is no pulse on the team. 
I'm expecting the Roughriders to play their best game of the year fortified with returning injured offensive linemen and wide receiver Rob Bagg back. 
Saskatchewan has won four of the past five times hosting Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers haven't been favored since opening week. Now they're laying more than a field goal in an annual rivalry Labour Day matchup. I'm not buying it. This marks Winnipeg's third consecutive road game, too. 

First it's important to note this game isn't in Madison. It's in Green Bay at Lambeau Field and LSU expects to have 30,000 fans. The seating capacity is 80,735. So almost half the crowd will be for the Tigers. 
As far as the matchup, it couldn't come at a worst time for Wisconsin. The Badgers need to shore up their offensive line because of injuries. Their best offensive lineman recently retired due to repeated injuries. They also are unsettled at quarterback. It would have been best for Wisconsin to ease into their schedule. That's certainly not the case here.
LSU is an absolute powerhouse with tremendous skill position talent. Leonard Fournette rivals Deshaun Watson as the best player in college football. 
Highly respected Tigers defensive coordinator Dave Aranda knows the Badgers inside-and-out having been their defensive coordinator the previous three seasons before coming to LSU this season. The Badgers hated to see him go. 
Wisconsin is going to lose anywhere from three to six games this season. The Badgers aren't in LSU's class and that point is made worse for Wisconsin by this being the opening game. 

South Alabama is well-coached and came close to qualifying for a bowl for a second consecutive season. One of their victories last season came on the road as 17 1/2-point 'dogs to San Diego State. Meeting an SEC foe is huge for South Alabama. The Jaguars are going to be far more motivated for this matchup than Mississippi State, which has a home game against South Carolina next week and then plays at LSU the following week. 
Those, of course, are both SEC contests. Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen isn't interested in running up a big score against South Alabama, or tipping his hand to South Carolina and LSU by pulling off any trickery or twists in this matchup.. 
Mullen is more interested in replacing Dak Prescott. The Bulldogs have a huge question at quarterback. They also have problems in the secondary losing both projected starting cornerbacks. 
Note, too, that Jaguars defensive coordinator, Kane Wommack, is the son of Mississippi's defensive coordinator. So you know he picked the brain of his father to help defend against Mississippi State. 

Louisiana Lafayette is in bounce back mode. Prior to last season, the Ragin Cajuns had won nine games four consecutive seasons. 
The Ragin Cajuns have LSU transfer Anthony Jennings at quarterback now and a star running back, Elijah McGuire. He's rushed for 3,185 yards with 35 touchdowns during his Lafayette career averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He also is the school's first running back to have 100 receptions. Boise State's defensive line has zero combined starts. 
But it's not just offense that should keep Lafayette in the ball game, but the situation, too. This is an 11 a.m. Central time start. The Broncos are traveling cross-country and not used to this early start. They haven't played at this early time in four years. There's another situational problem for Boise State. The Broncos aren't used to Louisiana's heat and humidity this time of year. The temperature is expected to reach 90 for this game. 

Colorado has its best team since 2007 with 18 returning starters. Colorado State could have its worst team in five years. Yet because some look upon this matchup as some sort of in-state rivalry, the spread is less than double-digits. 
Wrong number. The Buffaloes should roll past the Rams with huge edges in the trenches and in the passing game. 
Colorado is deep at running back and has a top wide receiver in Shay Fields. Colorado State has to replace it's entire defensive front and is thin and inexperienced in the secondary. Senior Buffaloes quarterback Sefo Liufau and Fields should put up big numbers.
The Buffaloes showed defensive improvement last year and that should continue this season. They return nine defensive starters plus get back suspended senior nose tackle Josh Tupou. Colorado State lost its best receiver from last season.  
The Buffaloes have won and covered five of the last six in this series and are in great position to extend that run given the timing of this matchup. 

The Tracy Claeys era kicks off in Minnesota with this matchup. Look for the Gophers to be more spread out offensively - and be more daring - with the coaching change from Jerry Kill to Claeys.

This is good news for Gophers quarterback Mitch Leidner. The Gophers certainly are going to run the ball, too, with Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith. They combined for nearly 1,400 yards rushing last season. 
Claeys probably wouldn't be opposed to piling up points for the home crowd in his head coaching debut. The Gophers can do that against a Beavers defense that was one of the worst in the country last season finishing 113th in scoring and 115th in total defense. Oregon State remains young on defense, very much a continued work-in-progress. 
However, Oregon State has the offense to hang with Minnesota. Second-year Oregon State head coach Gary Andersen is a sharp offensive coach. It looks like the Beavers have found themselves a good quarterback, too, in Darrell Garretson. He was a recruit of Andersen back from when he was coaching Utah State. Garretson has played in 14 games throwing for 2,576 yards with a 63 percent completion rate and 137.9 passer rating. He looked sharp in the spring. 
The Gophers probably are going to slip defensively having lost three of their five leading tacklers. 
Factor it all out and the two teams should combine to easily break the 50-point barrier. 

The last week of preseason is a crapshoot. I usually don't get involved. But I can't see the Vikings being prepared at all to play after seeing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffer serious injuries at practice on Tuesday. That had to be devastating for the team. 

The Vikings are shell shocked right now. Playing a game - even a meaningless one like this - has to be the last thing on their mind. Their thoughts are about Bridgewater right now. Not the Rams. 

Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has to be careful how much he plays veteran Shaun Hill in this game now because Hill is the new Vikings starting quarterback. This means most of the quarterback playing time in this game going to undrafted free agent  Joel Stave and Brad Sorensen, who was just cut by the team before Bridgewater went down. 

Rams coach Jeff Fisher has been treating the preseason more serious than other coaches trying to build up momentum and optimism for the Rams in their first year since returning to Los Angeles. The Rams hold a quarterback edge with Case Keenum, Jared Goff and Sean Mannion. All three of those are much better than Stave. 

Quietly, below the radar, Ian Kennedy has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball with a 1.14 ERA in his last six starts. Not once during this span has Kennedy given up more than two runs. 
The Royals have won 80 percent of the time when favored at home going 24-6. No team can match that. 
Kansas City also has had the best bullpen during the last two weeks with a 0.90 ERA. The Yankees, by contrast, have had the worst bullpen during this time frame with a 5.93 ERA. This isn't shocking since the Yankees dealt away Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller.  
The proud defending world champion Royals are digging hard for a playoff spot. The Yankees have signaled their intentions to rebuild. They are playing lots of youngsters and one of them, Luis Cessa, makes his third big league start here. Cessa has a 4.11 ERA. He's surrendered seven homers in less than 31 innings. 
Kansas City is 7-0 the past seven times when playing in the third game of a series. 
The price is right to back the Royals in big fashion. 

Anytime I can get the superior starting pitcher at a hefty 'dog price, I'm interested. That's the case in this matchup where a hot Kendall Graveman takes on Collin McHugh.
Graveman is Oakland's Sonny Gray this year. The A's are 11-3 in Graveman's last 14 starts. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA in his last four starts. Houston has lost the past six times it has faced a right-handed starter. The Astros lost twice to Graveman last month. Graveman held Houston to four earned runs in 15 innings during those two outings. 
Oakland has been playing well winning four of its last six while the Astros have dropped eight of their last 11 home games. 
McHugh isn't pitching well either with an 8.10 ERA in his last three starts. He's failed to last more than 5 1/3 innings in any of his past three starts. 

There are a lot of key factors that pass inspection here setting up a strong under play on this large total.
Let's start with Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda, who is one of the more consistent pitchers and is in good form with a 5-0 record in his last six starts holding foes to a .226 average during this span with a 30-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. 
Maeda has a strong history versus Colorado, too, with a 1.45 ERA in 18 2/3 innings and 22 strikeouts and two walks. Maeda is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts at Colorado. His strikeout-to-walk ratio at Coors is 13-to-1. 

Good control and getting strikeouts are especially magnified when pitching at Coors. Maeda has excellent control and Colorado starter Jon Gray is a big strikeout pitcher. He has the highest ceiling of any Colorado starter. Gray has battled inconsistency - common for a young strikeout pitcher - but is coming off a well-pitched game. He allowed two runs on four hits with 10 strikeouts against the Brewers during his last start this past Tuesday. 
These two teams have a history of going under the total, too, with eight of the last nine meetings falling below the total. Weather shouldn't factor with the forecast calling for a slight wind blowing in. 

It's a rough to fade Calgary, but the Stampeders have a bit of a cushion in the West Division and could be in letdown mode.
Even if they aren't, though, Hamilton always plays the Stampeders tough. In all but two of the last eight meetings, the games have been decided by less than a touchdown. Calgary is 3-0 the past three times meeting the Tiger-Cats. However, the combined margin of victory in those three games is by a total of eight points. Hamilton has covered the past five times when playing in Calgary. 
The Tiger-Cats have picked up their game with the return of QB Zach Collaros. Hamilton has scored 31 or more points in four of its last five games. The Tiger-Cats are proven road warriors, too, covering 70 percent of their last 20 away contests.

The short road price on the Indians fails to recognize what a lopsided pitching matchup this is.

Carlos Carrasco is back in top form. He's 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA in his last three starts with a 28-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Carrasco has been tough on the road, too, with a 6-3 record and 1.74 ERA. 
Cleveland has won during 19 of Carrasco's past 26 road starts.
The flip side is how poorly Texas starter A.J. Griffin is pitching with a 6.69 ERA during his past eight starts. Griffin rarely goes deep into games and Texas is very vulnerable in middle relief. Their bullpen also is missing suspended setup-man Jeremy Jeffress. 

Both Pittsburgh and New Orleans are 0-2 in preseason. 
Sean Payton wants to change that. Saints starters on both offense and defense are expected to see extended action. The Saints want this game. 
The same can't be said for Mike Tomlin, who isn't crazy enough to risk Ben Roethlisberger to injury especially since Roethlisberger has become more injury prone the last couple of seasons. 
Pittsburgh's 1-9 SU and ATS mark the past three years in preseason isn't a fluke. Tomlin is one of those coaches who does not care about winning these meaningless games.
While Drew Brees should see most of the quarterback action, the Saints also have capable backups in Luke McCown and Garrett Grayson. 
The Steelers lost their veteran backup quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, to a hamstring injury. That means extended playing time for Landry Jones and Bryn Renner, who has been cut by four teams during the past two seasons and likely is going to be out of the NFL when preseason finishes. 

Montreal has the second-worst record in the Canadian Football League. The Alouettes were 1-5 in their last six games - with all the losses occurring by double-digits - until they upset Ottawa last Friday as nine-point road 'dogs. 
The Alouettes are 0-5 ATS following a win and have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. I don't think they are very good and a fluke victory doesn't change that opinion. It just sets up a letdown scenario for Montreal against the rested and hot Blue Bombers. 
Sparked by quarterback Matt Nichols, Winnipeg has won three in a row. The Blue Bombers beat Edmonton on the road, Hamilton at home and Toronto on the road by a combined 50 points. All three of those opponents are .500 teams. The Blue Bombers were underdogs in each game. 
The Blue Bombers were idle last week and are expected to get several key injured starters back, including their top receivers. In the meantime, Nichols has found good chemistry with Clarence Denmark, Kris Adams, Jace Davis and Thomas Mayo. 
Winnipeg leads the CFL in takeaways and its secondary can get an added boost with the return of Chris Randle and Macho Harris. 
The Blue Bombers should have plenty of depth now that they are healthier. The timing is right, too, off a bye and catching Montreal in a letdown spot. 
The Alouettes have been favored only once - and that was against the worst team in the league, Saskatchewan - and they shouldn't be favored here. 

Jered Weaver and J.A. Happ are both 33. But that's where the similarity ends.No pitcher has more wins than Happ, who is 17-3 with a 3.05 ERA. Happ has turned his career around to where he's a serious Cy Young candidate. Weaver, on the other hand, has lost his fastball and is on a continuing decline.
Weaver has a 5.47 ERA. The Angels are 6-14 in his last 20 road starts. The Angels have lost 14 times when Weaver has started - all by more than one run. 
The Angels did win on Wednesday. But they are playing the string out losers of 15 of their last 19. The Blue Jays are in a pennant race and draw the Angels here in a get away game where the Angels have to cross the border following the game. 
Toronto is 21-5 in Happ's last 26 starts, including winning the past seven times he's faced a sub .500 opponent. 

Granted, Jake Odorizzi has been brilliant since the All-Star break going 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA. But the Red Sox-Rays still can't have a total this low. Drew Pomeranz has found it much tougher in the American League with a 4.23 ERA in seven starts since coming from the Padres and Odorizzi can't keep up this pace. 
Both teams have been swinging well and both teams have bullpen fatigue issues following yesterday's 11-inning game.
Boston has the No. 1 offense in baseball. The Red Sox are averaging more than six runs during their past 13 games. The Rays are averaging 6.2 runs during their past 10 games. 
The over has cashed in nine of the Rays' last 11 home games. 

The Beltway Series resume today in Washington after the Nationals lost to the Orioles the past two days in Baltimore. 
The combination of returning home and the pitching matchup - a mismatch that should be reflected with a higher lay price - should ensure a Nationals victory.
Washington is 36-23 at home. The Nationals will be fired-up returning to Nationals Park especially after playing so sloppy last night. The Orioles are an under .500 team when Chris Tillman isn't pitching. 
And the injured Tillman won't be pitching here. It's going to be southpaw Wade Miley, which is very bad news for Baltimore.
Miley is a journeyman. Baltimore is his latest stop - and it hasn't been pretty. Miley has made four starts for the Orioles and is 0-2 with a 9.94 ERA. He couldn't hold a 5-1 first inning lead in his last start this past Friday against the Astros allowing six runs on six hits in 1 2/3 innings. 
The Nationals are 16-11 versus lefties. They caught Miley last season when he was pitching for Boston. The Nationals got to Miley for seven runs in 2 1/3 innings. 
Washington starter Tanner Roark could be a No. 1 pitcher for a bunch of teams. He's highly underrated pitching for the Nationals. Roark has a 2.87 ERA and hasn't lost in more than a month. 

Not only are the Red Sox superior to the Rays, but the pitching matchup is right here, too. 
The buy sign is back on for southpaw David Price, who has allowed four earned runs in his last two starts spanning 14 innings. Price has a 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in these last two outings. The Rays have a losing record against lefties, losing eight of their last 11 to southpaws. 
Rays rookie southpaw Blake Snell has a 1.54 WHIP. His 3.06 ERA is bound to go up because he's been lucky to leave a lot of baserunners. The Red Sox are No. 1 in many of the key offensive categories, including runs and batting average. Boston also has a winning record against southpaws. 
The Red Sox faced Snell on June 27 getting four runs on eight hits and four walks against him in 5 1/3 innings. 

These two teams have combined to go over the total 13 straight times. Look for that trend to continue here as both teams are swinging hot bats and the situation sets up well for at least eight runs to be scored. The Mets have scored five or more runs in six of their last seven games, while the Giants are averaging more than six runs per game during their last eight contests. 
The Mets' offense is far more dangerous now that Yoenis Cespedes is in the lineup. New York has smacked 29 homers in its last 20 games and draw flyball pitcher Jeff Samardzija, who isn't going to be helped by 14-to-17 mph winds blowing out. 
Samardzjia has a bad history, too, versus the Mets with an 0-3 lifetime record and 8.72 ERA. 
Mets starter Noah Syndergaard doesn't have a good history either against the Giants with a lifetime 6.17 ERA in 11 2/3 innings. The Giants can attack Syndergaard with power and on the bases with their renewed emphasis on speed. No pitcher has allowed more stolen bases this season than Syndergaard. The over has cashed 10 of the past 14 times Syndergaard has taken the mound.
Slated home plate umpire Clint Fagan has been a plus to over bettors. The Over has cashed 56 percent of the time he's been behind the plate during the past two seasons.

I don't see the Pirates getting swept at home by the Marlins. Despite losing the first two games of this series, Pittsburgh still has defeated Miami 11 of the last 14 meetings at home. The last time the Marlins pulled a road sweep was way back in April. 
The pitching matchup sets up well for the Pirates. They draw Jose Urena. The Marlins are 1-8 in his last nine starts. Urena is another pitcher who only is in a big league rotation because of injuries. He has a hideous 6.80 ERA. Urena has seen Pittsburgh twice. He's pitching 5 2/3 innings against the Pirates in his brief career giving up nine runs and 13 hits.
Pittsburgh starter Ryan Vogelsong has a 2.55 ERA in three starts since coming off the DL following facial injuries sustained from being hit by a pitch. Teama often rest starters on Sunday and the Pirates have better depth than the Marlins, who are minus top slugger Giancarlo Stanton. 

Drew Smyly has turned his season around with five consecutive quality starts. Smyly has a 3.16 ERA since the All-Star break. Smyly has a 3.25 career ERA in 10 starts versus the Rangers holding them to a .205 average. 
Adrian Beltre is one of the few Rangers who has given Smyly trouble. However, Beltre may not play as he could take bereavement leave after finding out his grandfather passed away before last night's game. 
The second part of this handicap is a fade on Texas starter Martin Perez, who has a huge road/home bias. He's 1-7 with a 6.00 ERA in 12 road starts this season. Perez is a groundball pitcher. So he doesn't figure to be helped playing on Astroturf here. 
Another plus for Tampa Bay is the Rays are expected to have back underrated Logan Forsythe. He's been out with back spasms, but is expected to play. 

The price is low enough to back Aaron Sanchez, a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate, against slumping Josh Tomlin.
Sanchez is 11-1 with a 2.74 ERA in his last 19 starts. Only once in his past 10 starts has Sanchez given up more than two earned runs. Sanchez has been strong on the road going 7-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. 
Tomlin started the season in high style going 11-3. But his ERA then was 3.43 and his metrics painted a different story. Now it's caught up to him. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 9.37 ERA in his last three starts. Going back to his last seven starts, Tomlin is 2-5 with a 6.26 ERA. Toronto is 21-10 the past 31 times facing a righty. 
Tomlin also has given up 29 homers, tied for most in the majors with James Shields. Toronto has hit the second-most homers in the majors and is sixth in runs. The Blue Jays expect to have the left side of their infield - Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki - back in the starting lineup today. They both missed last night's game. 

I love the Diamondbacks here because the price doesn't reflect what a huge starting pitching edge Arizona has with Zack Greinke facing Jarred Cosart. 
Perhaps the oddsmaker is influenced by Greinke's last start, which could have been the worst of his career. He surrendered nine earned runs on 10 hits in less than two innings this past Sunday. That was against the Red Sox, the best offensive team in baseball. Greinke had won nine consecutive decisions until that game. 
I see the prideful Greinke coming back strong here against a much weaker opponent. The numbers certainly favor Greinke in a big way. His teams are 30-7 during the past two years for a winning percentage of 81 percent. Discount that Red Sox debacle and Greinke's road ERA is 2.14 this season and Arizona is 8-0 in his last eight road outings. 
Greinke has a strong history, too, against San Diego with a 7-1 career mark and 1.91 ERA in 14 starts. 
Cosart probably shouldn't even be in a big league rotation. He has a 5.03 ERA and has more walks than strikeouts. Cosart began the season with the Marlins, who demoted him after he posted a 5.95 ERA in four starts. Cosart didn't fare that much better in the minors with a 4.09 ERA and a losing record. 
The desperate Padres picked him up. Cosart actually pitched well in his last start. So that may be a reason why this line is much lower than I anticipated. I can't see Cosart putting together back-to-back strong performances. The Diamondbacks are swinging hot bats scoring 36 runs in their last four games.
The Diamondbacks have won five of the past eight times at Petco Park and are two games under .500 on the road while the Padres are two games below .500 at home. 

Jose Fernandez takes the mound today for the Marlins. We need to establish two things about Fernandez that seem to be escaping the oddsmaker's attention. Fernandez has been far from dominant since the All-Star break - 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA - and he's not good on the road where he's 3-4 with a 3.93 ERA this season. 
The Marlins haven't been that good either dropping 10 of their last 15 games. 
Yet Fernandez's reputation registers so strong with the marketplace that the Marlins are priced way too high today facing Cincinnati's most consistent pitcher. 
Dan Straily has outpitched Fernandez the past month posting a 2.13 ERA in his last six starts. Hitters are batting .215 against him on the season. The Reds have won each of his past six starts. 
The Reds' bullpen can be brutal. But the Marlins are down their best reliever with closer A.J. Ramos on the DL. 
I understand you can't make the Reds a favorite against Fernandez. But this price is heavily, heavily inflated. 

Both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were held to 17 points during its opening preseason games last week. Don't expect either team to improve their scoring in this Week 2 preseason matchup. 
The Eagles could manage just 17 points despite their opponent, Tampa Bay, turning the ball over five times. Not once did the Eagles launch a scoring drive that wasn't set up by a Buccaneers turnover. 
Philadelphia netted just 187 yards and 12 first downs. The Eagles' offensive line and wide receivers all looked terrible. The longest reception by an Eagles wideout was 10 yards. 
The Steelers' high-powered offense is likely to be kept under wraps until the regular season. There's no reason for Mike Tomlin to risk playing Ben Roethlisberger this early in the preseason and backup quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is dealing with a hamstring injury so he's not likely to see action either. This should mean a lot of Landry Jones - and we know how ineffective he is. 
The Steelers couldn't pick up a single first down until their fourth drive against the Lions last week. 
It's worth noting, too, that the two teams meet in Week 3 of the regular season. So don't expect either coach to reveal any tricky stuff on offense. 

Mike Folytnewicz has flashed star potential. This is a high ceiling pitcher who should pitch well in this spot. Folytnewicz defeated Stephen Strasburg and  Adam Wainwright in his last two starts. He's certainly capable of defeating Kyle Gibson, a lower-tier pitcher.

The Twins are likely still to be missing their second-best power hitter, Miguel Sano. He's sidelined with a sore elbow that prevents him from throwing. The Braves are home so the Twins can't DH Sano. 
Gibson is having a terrible August with a 7.98 ERA in three starts this month. He is 2-7 lifetime in interleague play with a 6.10 ERA. 
There will be a rare buzz for this Braves home game because shortstop Dansby Swanson, Atlanta's crown rookie jewel, is scheduled to make his big league debut after the Braves traded worthless Erick Aybar. 

If given 1 1/2 runs, the Phillies would be 13-3 in their last 16 games. They still hold playoff hopes and have won their past four games. 
The Phillies just faced Dodgers starter Kenta Madeda eight days ago and got to him for three runs in five innings. This is another quick turnaround look at him. 
Phillies starter Vince Velasquez has been much better when pitching at Citizens Bank Park going 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his nine home starts this season. Velasquez is from Southern California and has a strong revenge motivate after the Dodgers roughed him up eight days ago in a 9-3 loss at Dodger Stadium. 
The Phillies' bullpen has been overworked, but got a much needed day off yesterday with the Phillies being idle. 

Seattle is playing well wining 10 of its last 12. The Angels are a train wreck right now losing 10 in a row with all but one of those defeats coming by multiple runs. 
The Angels' confidence is down and their concentration could be off, too, returning home after being gone for 11 days. 
Seattle has hit 51 more homers than the Angels and owns a starting pitching and bullpen edge. 
The buy sign is back on with Felix Hernandez after he permitted only one run on three hits in seven innings against the Tigers five days ago. Hernandez is back in shape after missing seven weeks due to a strained right calf. He has 22 strikeouts in his last 20 innings. 
Ricky Nolasco will be making his second start for the Angels. He has a 7.00 lifetime ERA at Angel Stadium in three starts. Nolasco is 4-9 with a 5.14 ERA. He had a 5.38 ERA last year. At 33, Nolasco is who he is - a journeyman innings-eater. 
The Angels don't have the bullpen arms to back Nolasco. Joe Smith is traded. Closer Huston Street is on the DL. So is Cam Bedrosian, who had taken over the closer role when Street went on the DL. 
The Mariners, meanwhile, have solved their closer issues with Edwin Diaz stepping up to fill the role with flair and effectiveness. He's given up one run in his last 15 appearances. 

Monday Bonus Play

Rangers minus $1.55 hosting A's

There are pitchers with strong home/road tendencies. Texas' Martin Perez is one of those. The lefty is 1-7 with a 6.00 in 12 road starts this season, but 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA at home. 
Perez is at his finest pitching at home versus sub .500 opponents. That's the spot here. The Rangers are 12-2 the past 14 times Perez has pitched in Arlington against a foe with a losing record. The Rangers have one of the more underrated bullpens after trading for Jeremy Jeffress to go with Matt Bush and closer Sam Dyson. 
The A's are 5-11 in their last 16 games and have dropped 13 of their last 17 when facing a southpaw starter. 
Trades and injuries have left the A's thin in the starting rotation. So journeyman Ross Detwiler gets another start. Detwiler came up from the minors to post his first victory as a starter since 2013 this past Wednesday in his Oakland debut after the Indians traded him. 
The Rangers are well acquainted with Detwiler. They released him last season after he went 0-5 with a 7.12 ERA in 17 appearances, including five starts. 

There are pitchers with strong home/road tendencies. Texas' Martin Perez is one of those. The lefty is 1-7 with a 6.00 in 12 road starts this season, but 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA at home. 
Perez is at his finest pitching at home versus sub .500 opponents. That's the spot here. The Rangers are 12-2 the past 14 times Perez has pitched in Arlington against a foe with a losing record. The Rangers have one of the more underrated bullpens after trading for Jeremy Jeffress to go with Matt Bush and closer Sam Dyson. 
The A's are 5-11 in their last 16 games and have dropped 13 of their last 17 when facing a southpaw starter. 
Trades and injuries have left the A's thin in the starting rotation. So journeyman Ross Detwiler gets another start. Detwiler came up from the minors to post his first victory as a starter since 2013 this past Wednesday in his Oakland debut after the Indians traded him. 
The Rangers are well acquainted with Detwiler. They released him last season after he went 0-5 with a 7.12 ERA in 17 appearances, including five starts. 

These two teams just had a joint practice on Friday and the Texans looked good during it reinvigorated from a day off on Wednesday and by the less humid weather than they are used to. 
The Texans are the superior team and I see their energy and focus carrying over into this game. 
Houston holds a strong skill position edge, particularly with its wide receiver depth. That should prove crucial here. I would take Brock Osweiler over Blaine Gabbert. The 49ers could be missing Colin Kaepernick, too, He's missed the last two days of practice with a sore shoulder.
Chip Kelly's top priority is to get his system in place. That's going to take time. 
Taking points is a nice bonus. 

The rebuilding Brewers are 8-12 this month going nowhere this season. The Reds aren't going anywhere either. But they have shown some life, sparked by Joey Votto's bat coming alive, winning 15 of their last 24 games. 
The pitching matchup is Cody Reed versus Wily Peralta. Don't be fooled by Reed's 6.36 ERA. The rookie has much better metrics. He's been dogged by bad luck. That luck is due to change. He pitched six scoreless innings in his last start this past Monday against the Cardinals. 
Peralta has been the Brewers' most disappointing pitcher. He was so horrible that the Brewers sent him to the minors where he continued to struggle. Now, like a bad penny, he's back. Until Peralta shows something, though, he remains fade material especially as chalk. 

Enough is enough. I don't see San Francisco losing for a sixth straight time with Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner hasn't slipped. He has a 2.20 ERA in his last seven starts. The Orioles have never faced him. 
The Orioles aren't so strong offensively in spacious West Coast parks. They have scored two runs or less in four of their last seven games. 
Baltimore has lost 19 of the past 26 times Kevin Gausman has pitched on the road. They also are 5-14 the past 19 times Gausman has been on the mound versus an above .500 opponent.
The Giants, on the other hand, are 10-2 when Bumgarner has pitched at home against a foe with a winning record.
Look for the Giants to start playing better now that Joe Panik, Hunter Pence, Denard Span and Angel Pagan are all back healthy.  

I understand Jacob deGrom is the nuts at Citi Field. But you simply can't have a total this low when the other starting pitcher is Jarred Cosart, who I regard as maybe the worst starting pitcher in the National League.
Cosart was terrible for the Marlins in April. Cosart was terrible in the minors when he was shipped down. Cosart has been terrible in his brief stay with the Padres. The guy hasn't won in nearly a year. 
Both bullpens have fatigue issues, too. 
The Padres are a much stronger hitting team on the road. The Mets' lineup isn't so weak anymore with Yoenis Cespedes on the DL since adding Jay Bruce. The over has cashed in seven of the Mets' last eight home games. 
The weather forecast is favorable for offense with the wind blowing out to left at 10-15 mph. 

Don't expect many points from Green Bay. The Packers will be going with a pair of undrafted rookie quarterbacks and are holding out their best offensive linemen. Green Bay does not have good offensive line depth.
The Packers do have excellent depth in their defensive backfield, though, and the Browns have a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Their top three wide receivers are all out. 

The Packers have lost and failed to cover in five of their last six preseason openers. Mike McCarthy doesn't care about these preseason openers. Hue Jackson does in his Browns coaching debut. 
That's why Jackson is going to play starting quarterback Robert Griffin III a lot. That gives Cleveland a monster quarterback edge since neither Aaron Rodgers nor backup Brett Hundley are expected to play. Hundley remains sidelined with a an ankle injury. 
This leaves the Packers' quarterback rotation left to a pair of undrafted rookies. On top of that, the Packers have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line. So they'll be playing backups in the offensive line. Green Bay lacks depth in its offensive line. 
The Browns are the team with far more motivation with a number of starting spots up for grabs. 

Writeup to come shortly. 

They are in different conferences, but the Saints will have great familiarity with the Patriots since the teams have been jointly practicing. That's a big plus when taking points in a preseason game. The two teams met last preseason and New Orleans jumped out to a 15-0 lead before losing by two points. 
I like the Saints' quarterback situation better than New England's for this preseason matchup. Consider Drew Brees and Tom Brady a wash. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't looked sharp for New England. The Saints' backups are veteran Luke McCown and second-year man Garrett Grayson, who completed 8 of 12 passes against Baltimore in the Saints' preseason opener last year. Rookie QB Jacoby Brissett figures to play a lot in this game for New England. 
The Saints are working hard at establishing a tough defensive mind set under new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. The Saints have more to prove during the preseason. This is what Bill Belichick said this week, "We still have things we need to install." The Patriots have lost and failed to cover in their last two preseason openers losing by 11 points to the Packers last year and by 17 points to the Redskins in 2014. 
New Orleans has covered seven of the past nine times when getting points in preseason and is 4-1 ATS in its last five preseason openers. 

The Giants are a sound investment as underdogs here. The Marlins are weakening themselves in the bullpen by starting David Phelps, who has been a key setup reliever for them. 
Phelps' ERA went up for the fourth straight month in July. He doesn't figure to go deep into the game. The Marlins are without injured A.J. Ramos. Their bullpen is further thinned with Phelps part of the starting rotation now. Fernando Rodney is the team's new closer with Ramos on the DL. He's not likely to be available, however, having worked an inning during each of the past three days. 
Giants starter Jeff Samardzija was an All-Star just two seasons ago. He's struggled in his last three starts, but as a flyball pitcher he's aided whenever throwing in a pitcher's park, which Marlins Park is. Samardzija is 4-1 with a 3.81 ERA in 16 career appearances against the Marlins. This is a good time to get on him when his stock his low. Samardzija catches a break, too, in that Giancarlo Stanton isn't expected to play due to a sore leg. Miami has lost five of the past six times when facing a right-handed starter.

Wily Peralta is a horrible pitcher. The Brewers demoted him after he posted a 6.68 ERA in his first 13 starts this season. Peralta wasn't doing any better in the minors where he had a 6.31 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 10 starts. 
But with Junior Guerra on the DL, the Brewers elected to bite the bullet rather than rush any of their youngsters up to the majors. So they promoted Peralta. It's not a coincidence the over is 19-7-2 (73%) the past 28 times Peralta has pitched for the Brewers. 
Braves starter Tyrell Jenkins has a 4.33 ERA and is plagued by wildness. He's permitted at least four walks in each of his last four starts.
Jenkins has yet to go more than six innings in a game. Peralta certainly doesn't figure to be around long either. Both bullpens, though, carry a high fatigue rating after last night's 12 inning game. 
If you discount a 1-0 loss to the Cardinals, the Braves are averaging more than seven runs per game during their last five games. The Brewers are averaging seven runs per game during their last three games. 

I understand going under the total is a dangerous thing to do at Coors Field. But keep in mind not only who the pitchers are for this matchup - Cole Hamels and underrated Tyler Anderson - but that there is no DH, no Trevor Story, probably no Carlos Beltran and a slight wind that will be blowing in. 
Hamels could be the top road pitcher in baseball with an 8-2 away mark and 1.90 ERA. He's experienced against the Rockies and Coors Field from when he pitched with the Phillies holding a 3.21 career ERA versus Colorado and having made five starts in Colorado. Hamels won't have to deal with Story either. The Rockies go from "A" offensive production at shortstop to "F" because of Story's poor-hitting replacement infielders. 
Anderson will be making his 11th career start. His ERA is 3.25. That's the lowest ERA for a Colorado starter through 10 starts in team history. Anderson has been fine pitching at Coors going 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in seven home starts. He's been touched for just three homers in those seven starts at Coors. 

This isn't the mismatch it looks like on paper. 
Kyle Hendricks has been great when pitching at Wrigley Field. Not so, though, when pitching on the road where he's 2-6 with a 3.75 ERA. 
Rookie Sean Manaea has been pitching better for Oakland. He has a 2.51 ERA in his last five starts. Oakland is 4-0 in his last four home starts.

The Astros are 2-7 in their last nine games and pitching rookie Joe Musgrove, who has been used in the bullpen. I don't see Musgrove pitching long in this game and the Astros have a vulnerable bullpen.
Yu Darvish hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in four starts since coming off the DL. Darvish is getting stronger and stronger. He's recorded 35 strikeouts in his last 22 2/3 innings. 

The price is low enough to get into play with a pitching mismatch of Jacob deGrom versus Anibal Sanchez. 
The Tigers have never faced deGrom, who has a 1.69 ERA since the All-Star break and has been the Mets' best pitcher. The key arms in the Mets' bullpen are rested. In nine career interleague starts, deGrom has a 2.25 ERA. 
Sanchez hasn't been good the last four years since losing speed off his fastball. He's 6-11 with a 6.26 ERA this season, only in the rotation because of multiple injuries to Detroit's pitchers. This will be Sanchez's 12th lifetime start versus the Mets. He has a 4.45 ERA against them. 

Look for the Rockies to bounce back after losing on Friday when they blew a ninth-inning lead. 
Colorado is tough at Coors Field where it has a winning home record. The Rockies also are 8-2 following a defeat.
Padres starter Andrew Cashner is one of many pitchers who has trouble pitching at Coors Field where he has a 6.94 lifetime ERA in 23 1/3 innings.
The Marlins have yet to face Colorado starter Chad Bettis, who is pitching better. He's 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA in his last five starts. The Rockies have won the past five times Bettis has pitched at Coors.
The Marlins have lost nine of the last 11 times when on the road against an opponent with a winning home mark. 

On paper this total looks right. Aaron Sanchez and Danny Duffy are having career seasons. But there are red flags for them. Sanchez already has pitched a career-high 139 1/3 innings this season. 
Duffy is coming off a near no-hitter and 16 strikeouts during his last start this past Monday against the Rays. Rarely do non-elite pitchers throw back-to-back dominant games. Duffy also has a bad track record versus Toronto with a 6.97 ERA in five lifetime appearances, including four starts. 
Duffy's lowest ERA has been on the road and in day games. He has a 3.79 home ERA and 3.46 ERA in night games compared to 2.17 ERA on the road and and 1.42 during sunlight. 
Note, too, that Brian Gorman is slated to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed in nine of 11 games he has been behind the plate this season. 

The defending Grey Cup champion Eskimos are finding out that repeating isn't going to be easy. They have lost their last two games - both as solid home favorites. It's the first time Edmonton has lost two in a row since 2014. 
Now the Eskimos go on the road to play Ottawa where they are underdogs for the first this season. Look for the Eskimos to bounce back. They won their lone away game this season and are 8-2 ATS following a straight-up loss. 
Edmonton opened its season with a 45-37 overtime loss to the Redblacks so there also is a strong revenge factor. 
There is nothing wrong with Edmonton's offense. Quarterback Mike Reilly leads the CFL in passing yards and touchdown passes per game. Reilly is attacking a banged-up Redblacks secondary down several veteran starters. 
The Eskimos certainly should put up their share of points and they're due to play much better because the talent is there. 

I'll lay this price with the superior team that has a major edge, too, in starting pitching.
Corey Kluber has resembled his Cy Young Award self of 2014 lately giving up one run or fewer in three of his last four starts. He's allowed just four runs during this span in 29 innings. 
Yankees starter CC Sabathia has run out of gas failing to turn in a quality start during seven of his last eight starts. His ERA during his last eight games is 6.85. Sabathia can no longer be bailed out by the Yankees' backend of their bullpen with Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller gone. 

Not only does Boston have the better offense, but the Red Sox also have the superior starting pitcher going here. Yet they opened underdogs. 
The Red Sox have scored the most runs in baseball while also leading in batting average, RBI, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. They are 11-3 in their last 14 interleague games. 
Boston starter Steven Wright has a 2.37 ERA. He's a knuckleballer, who should be fine pitching at night in Dodger Stadium. He's vulnerable when pitching in rainy conditions, which won't be the case here. Wright should be pumped being a Southern California native making his first start at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers rarely see a knuckleball pitcher being in the National League. 
The Red Sox have seen plenty of Dodgers lefty Scott Kazmir, who has a 3.99 ERA in 29 career starts versus Boston. Kazmir has a 4.41 ERA on the season. Boston is 7-2 the past nine times facing a southpaw. 

This is a 4:05 p.m. West Coast starting time, which is extremely rare for an Angels home game. There is a history of these Angels home games going under at that starting time because hitters have trouble picking up the ball due to the glare of the sun setting above the third base side. People who have attended these starting time games know what I'm talking about. 
This isn't a problem during the Angels' usual 7 p.m. starting times games, but for these rare home games that start three hours earlier the sun plays havoc with hitters. Albert Pujols has been quoted as saying after one of these 4 p.m. games than he never could see the ball when batting. 
A's starter Jesse Hahn last pitched on July 24 and pitched extremely well holding the Rays to one run on five hits with a five-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio in 7 2/3 innings. Hahn certainly won't lack for motivation pitching for a rotation spot with Rich Hill dealt to the Dodgers. 
Ricky Nolasco makes his first start for the Angels. He won't have to worry about Josh Reddick, who was one of the A's best hitters but was traded to the Dodgers. Nolasco is well traveled, but has given up only one earned run during two of his past three starts. Nolasco hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during four of his last five starts going at least six innings in all but one of those starts. 
Eric Cooper is slated to be the home plate umpire. The under has cashed 75 percent the past 16 times Cooper has been behind the plate. 

If you think wide receivers are valuable in the NFL, watch a CFL game. That's really all about passing and it's a key factor why host Winnipeg is in major trouble this week with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver.

The Blue Bombers are down Darvin Adams, Weston Dressler and Ryan Smith. That's their No. 1, No. 2 and No. 5 leading receivers. They also are down several defensive backs. 
Road teams have covered an astonishing 19 of 24 games this season. The Tiger-Cats are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 away contests. Winnipeg is 0-3 SU and ATS at home. The Blue Bombers have failed to cover the past four times they've hosted the Tiger-Cats.  
This also is a big revenge game for Hamilton. The Blue Bombers stunned the Tiger-Cats on the road winning, 28-24, as 9-point 'dogs. Hamilton outgained Winnipeg in that game but was done in by five turnovers. The Tiger-Cats have been pointing to this matchup having been idle since July 23. 
Hamilton has been a far better road team going 3-0 SU and ATS beating Montreal, Toronto and Edmonton by a combined 52 points.
The Tiger-Cats rank No. 1 in total defense while the Blue Bombers are last giving up nearly 100 more yards per game than Hamilton. The Blue Bombers have covered just 28 percent the past 24 times they've met an above .500 opponent.

Gerrit Cole has been an elite pitcher and he's rounding back into that form since missing a month because of a strained right triceps. He's been getting better and better since returning from the DL culminating in his last start when he held the Mariners to one run on three hits and no walks with six strikeouts in a complete game performance. Now he draws the Braves, who are last in runs and homers. 

Cole is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three lifetime starts versus Atlanta. 
Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz also is displaying his vast potential after being sidelined. He's been at his best at Turner Field posting a 2.83 ERA there. Jim Johnson has solidified the Braves' closer role winning NL Player of the Week honors this past week saving four games. 

The Orioles have gone under the total an amazing 17 times in their last 19 games, including 14-1-1 under in their past 16 home games. Look for that trend to continue in this matchup. 
Rangers starter Yu Darvish is rounding into his stud form. This is his fourth start since coming off the DL. He has a 3.31 ERA in his first three starts and is getting stronger with each outing. The Rangers upgraded their bullpen picking up Brewers closer Jeremy Jeffress at the trade deadline. Jeffress provides the Rangers a quality set-up man in front of closer Sam Dyson. 
The Orioles have scored more than three runs just twice in their last seven games. 
Both bullpens are rested as the teams were idle on Monday.
Dylan Bundy makes his fourth start for Baltimore. He, too, has been getting better since coming off the DL. He no-hit the Rockies for five innings during his previous start finishing with eight strikeouts and one walk in 5 2/3 innings. Bundy has a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last two starts. The Orioles' bullpen owns a 2.70 ERA at home. 

This game opened priced much lower than it should be because CC Sabathia is a big-name starter while Logan Verrett is not. 

Sabathia, though, is 35 and has logged more than 3,000 innings. The southpaw is at the end of his career and is dragging as the season hits August. Sabathia has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts. The Mets have a winning record versus lefties. 
The Yankees are a demoralized bunch after management essentially pulled the plug on their season dealing their two best relief pitchers, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller, for prospects considerably weakening what used to be a strong bullpen. 
Verrett has a respectable 3.29 home ERA and 3.44 ERA in his last three starts. He held the Cardinals to three runs on five hits in seven innings during his last start this past Wednesday. The Yankees have never faced Verrett. 

Just because the Cubs struck gold with another failed Oriole, Jake Arrieta, doesn't mean they can do it with Brian Matusz. As good as the Cubs are, and playing at home, I disagree that they should be favored in a matchup of Matusz against Felix Hernandez.
The Orioles gave up on Matusz after he went 27-41 with a 4.85 ERA in 279 career games for them. The Braves traded for him this season and then released him. 
Hernandez hasn't been his usual dominant self this season, but he's still an elite pitcher at 30.This will be his third start since coming off the DL after being sidelined with a strained right calf that obviously affected his pitching. None of the current Cubs have faced Hernandez since the last time Hernandez pitched against Chicago was 2010.
The Mariners are in the top 10 in scoring. Only two teams have hit more homers than Seattle. 

The number is inflated because Ottawa starting quarterback Henry Burris is back after missing five games with a finger injury, while Logan Kilgore makes his first start replacing injured No. 1 quarterback Ricky Ray for Toronto.
These teams just played each other on July 13. The score was tied 20-20 with 2:49 left when the Redblacks returned a punt 75 yards for a touchdown in a 30-20 final.
Burris could be rusty. That's a possibility. But I also believe Kilgore will be ready having had all week to practice with the first unit. Kilgore looked good in preseason and will be coached up by Scott Milanovich, who has a strong reputation for developing quarterbacks.
Also in Kilgore's favor is the Argonauts have improved their ground attack ranking in the middle after finishing last in 2015. Toronto's offensive line is coming around, too, allowing only one sack in its last game, a victory against Montreal, which has a top-four defense. The Argonauts should be primed for a big effort not only because it's short revenge, but also rallying around their replacement quarterback. 

Stud versus underachiever. That's what we have in this matchup. Carlos Martinez doesn't get a lot of publicity, but he's a star and he's at his best on the road.
Andrew Cashner has been a dud the past couple of years after showing early promise. Going from the Padres to the Marlins isn't going to change that. 
Let's begin with Martinez, who is having another superb season at 10-6 with a 2.87 ERA. He's 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA in eight road outings this season. St. Louis has won 77 percent of his past 22 away starts. 
Now let's examine Cashner. His ERA was 4.34 last year. This season he's 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA. Cashner is 15-30 during the last three years. He hasn't reached the seventh inning in any of his last seven starts. The Marlins have bullpen fatigue issues after starter Colin Rea only went 3 1/3 innings on Saturday.
The Cardinals own the best road mark in the majors at 31-18. This is a bounce back game for them after an embarrassing 11-0 loss yesterday.  

Question: Which team has the worst road record in the majors? Step to the front if you said the defending world champion Royals. They have dropped 34 of their 51 away games and have just about faded from playoff contention trailing the Indians by 10 games in the AL Central. 
This is another bad road matchup for Kansas City with Ian Kennedy going against Martin Perez.
Kennedy has been a major disappointment. He is 0-3 with a 6.90 ERA this month. Kansas City is 2-8 with Kennedy on the mound since June. Kennedy, a flyball pitcher, is especially vulnerable at this ballpark on a hot, muggy night where the ball can really carry. Heavy trade rumors haven't helped Kennedy's mental state. He is 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA lifetime against the Rangers in three starts.  
Perez has been going through a tough stretch, too, but he pitches much better in Arlington where he is 6-1 with a 2.69 ERA. Only one of Perez's last five starts have been at home. The Rangers have won the last six times the lefty has pitched at home and are 21-8 in Perez's last 29 starts versus opponents with a losing record. The Royals have lost the last five times they've faced a lefty starter.  

The buy sign is on here for southpaw Drew Smyly, a big strikeout pitcher who had an encouraging outing in his last start. 
The Yankees are in rebuilt mode after dealing closer Aroldis Chapman. They are 14-17 on the season versus southpaw starters and have had trouble with Smyly in the past. Smyly is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA career-wise versus the Yankees.
Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi actually leads the Yankees in wins, but is their most inconsistent starter. The Yankees are 0-4 in his last four road starts. 

I understand it's tough to get behind the Giants right now. They are 2-10 since the All-Star break. 
But the Giants have a strong history against Max Scherzer and the Nationals have trouble closing out games with Jonathan Papelbon's recent problems. 
San Francisco has won 19 of its last 28 home games. The Giants infield has been fortified with Joe Panik coming off the DL and the team trading for All-Star Eduardo Nunez. 
Scherzer is 1-4 with a 6.85 career ERA in five career starts against the Giants. The Nationals have won just once in their last six visits to AT&T Park. 
Giants starter Jeff Samardzija has become more of an innings-eater type starter than an effective one. He's hurt by giving up too many homers.
Samardzija, however, is must effective when pitching at spacious AT&T Park. His home ERA is 3.83 this season compared to 4.43 on the road. He also has a 3.73 night ERA compared to a 5.56 ERA when pitching during the day. The Giants have won five of the last seven times Samardzija has pitched at home.

Road teams have been gold this CFL season. B.C. has contributed to that going 2-0 SU and ATS in its two away matchups. The Lions aren't strong at quarterback, but they compensate for that with a league-leading running attack and outstanding defense that ranks No. 1 in fewest yards allowed per game. The Lions' ground attack can take advantage of Calgary's defensive line injuries making it easier for quarterback Jonathon Jennings to pick his spots. 
The Lions upset Calgary, 20-18, opening week as 2 1/2-point 'dogs. Now they are off a bye and the pointspread is doubled. It wasn't a fluke the Lions won the first meeting as they outgained the Stampeders while running off 17 more plays. 
Calgary's only two wins have been against Winnipeg, which has the worst record in the league at 1-4. 
The Lions have outgained each of their first four opponents. The line is inflated because of Calgary's revenge angle and perhaps the oddsmaker not fully buying into the much improved Lions.

The White Sox are in must-win mode against this bottom-feeder. Twins players have to be distracted by the upcoming trade deadline especially after infielder Eduardo Nunez, their lone All-Star, was dealt to San Francisco following Thursday's win against Baltimore. 
Chicago has dominated Minnesota winning eight of nine games this season. The White Sox have Jose Quintana going. He's having his finest season with a 2.97 ERA. 
Twins starter Ricky Nolasco is having another Ricky Nolasco type season with a 4-8 record and 5.40 ERA. He couldn't get to the third inning against Boston in his last start. The Twins are 0-7 the last seven times they've played an AL Central Division foe. 

The Orioles have scored only 10 runs in their last six road games. This was supposed to be their first off day since All-Star break. Instead, though, they have to play in this postponed game before heading off to Toronto for a first-place AL East Division showdown series against the Blue Jays. So it wouldn't be surprising if some of the key Baltimore hitters are rested in this matchup.
Twins starter Kyle Gibson is off the best pitched game of his career. He held the Red Sox, the No. 1 scoring team in baseball, to one run on two hits in eight innings this past Friday. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his past five starts. 
The under has cashed in Baltimore's last seven road games and 13 of the last 16 times the Orioles have faced a righty starter. 
The Twins have a below average offense. They've been held to two runs or fewer in half of their last 12 games.
Look for Ubaldo Jimenez to come through for Baltimore. He's been terrible up to this point - 5-9 record with a 7.38 ERA - but he will be well rested both physically and mentally. Jimenez last pitched 20 days ago. He got off the paternity list after the recent birth of his first daughter. He also made a mechanical adjustment during his time off that should prove helpful. This is an extremely important start for his career. 
Jimenez pitches with a lot of confidence against Minnesota. He has been especially strong at Target Field with a 4-1 lifetime mark and 1.82 ERA. 
Both pitcher's should be helped a 10 mph wind that will be blowing in.  

Baltimore is 58-42. Minnesota is 37-63, the worst record in the American League. That's a sampling of 100 games. The verdict is in and the Orioles are much superior to the Twins.
So why did the Twins open a favorite here? Home field isn't that strong of a factor. 
The big reason is Baltimore is throwing Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 5-9 with a 7.38 ERA. Jimenez, though, loves to pitch at Target Field where he's 4-1 lifetime with a 1.82 ERA.
Jimenez's wife just gave birth to his first daughter. He's relaxed now and should be strong having not pitched in nearly three weeks. I'm expecting a big game from Jimenez and the Orioles, who have a vastly superior offense to the Twins. 
Twins starter Kyle Gibson is coming off his best game, but has always lacked consistency. 

Boston has the best offense in baseball. The Tigers carry a high bullpen fatigue rating. The two teams just played a 9-8 game last night. So naturally the oddsmaker is going to assign a high total to today's matchup.
But given the starting pitching matchup and circumstances, I don't see the final score adding up to double-digits. 
Detroit starter Michael Fulmer had a hiccup in his last start allowing four runs in five innings against the White Sox. That's the highest number of runs Fulmer has given up in a game all season. Fulmer has been brilliant. That brilliance has shown on the road where he's 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA. Until his last outing, Fulmer hadn't surrendered more than two runs in 10 consecutive starts. The Red Sox have yet to face him giving Fulmer the advantage of surprise.
The Red Sox have a young pitcher going, too, Eduardo Rodriguez. He showed a lot of promise last season, but was hurt this season and needed to work out mechanical issues in the minors. This will be his third start since getting called up earlier this month. Rodriguez has yielded three runs in 12 1/3 innings during his last two starts. He struck out eight in 5 1/3 innings against the Twins during his last start. 
Rodriguez beat the Tigers in his lone start against them. That was a year ago when he held them to one run. Veteran Brad Ziegler has shored up the Red Sox bullpen. 
The weather forecast is for a slight wind, which will be blowing in. CB Bucknor is slated to be the home plate umpire. Bucknor has had more unders than overs in four of the last five seasons, including this year. 

After making a key mechanical adjustment, the buy sign is on for Chris Archer. He pitched at Coors Field this past Wednesday and held the Rockies to two runs on four hits in six innings. Up to that point, Archer had been very disappointing. Yet he still leads the American League in strikeouts with 147 in 123 1/3 innings. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Archer a first-look edge. 
Tampa Bay is 6-1 in Archer's last seven interleague starts. 
The Dodgers are going with Bud Norris, who is 5-9 with a 4.56 ERA. He's been a high strikeout guy, too, like Archer, but doesn't come close to matching Archer's previous All-Star form. Norris has always lacked consistency becoming a journeyman. His schedule has been altered, too, since he last pitched in relief last Friday giving up a game-winning home run in a 16-inning loss to the Cardinals. 
Norris has pitched against the Rays seven times, including six starts, and is 1-2 with a 4.62 ERA. I prefer a back-in-form Archer to Norris and a Dodger bullpen that ranks among the top five in most innings pitched. 
Trade rumors and a rare chance to play in Dodger Stadium should ensure a full effort from the Rays. 

The Yankees not only lose their closer Aroldis Chapman, but also are mentally distracted following that trade today in which the star reliever was dealt to the Cubs.

The Yankees have to deal with Dallas Keuchel on top of this. He's made four starts against the Yankees the past two years and giving up two runs in 29 innings. Current Yankees are batting less than .190 against him. 

The Astros have won four in a row averaging 10 runs during their last two games. Current Astros are hitting .303 against Yankees starter Michael Pineda, who has a 5.70 road ERA this season. 

Road teams have been gold this CFL season going 13-3-1 and 15-2 against the spread through Thursday. Toronto has been part of this home field problem going 0-2 at their new BMO Field, losing by an average of 16 points to Hamilton and Ottawa. A crowd of less than 10,000 is expected so the Argonauts don't have a strong home field despite their new digs. 
This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor winning nine of the last 10 times. 
Montreal has a strong defense, but the CFL's weakest offense. A large part of the Alouettes' problems on offense have been because of injuries, including an eye injury to quarterback Kevin Glenn. But Glenn has been taking first-team reps this week after missing last week's game and is expected to start. That should give the Alouettes a needed boost.
The Alouettes do have a strong defense. Toronto averages fewer than 24 points a game and ranks last in yards gained. So this is a lot of points for the Argos to lay. 

Take away Jose Fernandez and the Marlins' pitching staff is very vulnerable. That's especially so when an injury hits like it has to Wei-Yin Chen. He's out with an elbow injury. The reason the Marlins' back-end of their rotation is so bad is because they have no adequate replacements.
So who gets the call to pitch today? Jarred Cosart. He was brutal with a 7.98 ERA in three April starts spanning less than 15 innings. The Marlins sent him down to the minors in April. Now he's resurfaced not because he's pitching well, but because Miami is desperate. Cosart was 3-4 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for Triple-A New Orleans. 
The Phillies have going their most consistent pitcher this season, Jeremy Hellickson. The Phillies are 4-1 in Hellickson's last five starts. Hellickson is 2-0 in three starts versus the Marlins this season giving up just six runs in those three outings. Hellickson has pitched so well in Philadelphia that his name is being linked to a number of trade rumors. So he should have extra motivation for this start with the chance to possibility be traded to a contending team. 
Philadelphia plays Miami tough having split the 10 head-to-head games this season. The Phillies also have back their best power hitter, third baseman Maikel Franco. 

This is a key matchup for the defending world champions. The Royals have been dominant at home going 31-15. They have only lost four times in 22 games when favored at Kauffman Stadium. 
The Rangers are a .500 road club. This marks their ninth straight away game and end of their current road trip. So focus could be a problem.  
The starting pitching matchup of A.J. Griffin versus Edinson Volquez favors the Royals. Kansas City also has much the superior bullpen. 
Griffin has yet to prove he has fully recovered from shoulder stiffness that sidelined him for 43 games earlier this season. He has made five starts since coming off the DL and is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA. He hasn't reached the sixth inning in any of those outings putting the Rangers' vulnerable middle relief into action. Griffin also has yielded at least one home run in each of his past five starts. 
Volquez is in solid form allowing nine runs during his last four starts spanning 25 2/3 innings. He has pitched much better at home with a 6-3 record and 4.09 ERA compared to 2-5 with a 5.72 ERA on the road. Volquez's home ERA would be a full run lower, but is skewed by one horrible performance in which he allowed 11 earned runs in one inning against the Astros last month. 

The Yankees aren't likely to have overworked star relievers Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances for this game. That puts a lot of pressure on Nathan Eovaldi, who hasn't been up to the task. Eovaldi pitched well in his last start, but prior to that he had a 9.20 ERA in his previous six starts. He carries a 13.30 lifetime ERA in five careers starts versus the Giants. 

The Giants also have bullpen fatigue issues and their starter, Jeff Samardzija, is a bad fit for Yankee Stadium. He's given up 12 homers in his last eight starts and has a 6.02 ERA in his last eight starts. He has a 5.28 ERA in 21 interleague appearances. 

This is way too big of a price for the Rockies to lay pitching lefty Tyler Anderson and having a shaky and fatigued bullpen. The Rockies believe Anderson has promise. The Braves believe the same thing about Matt Wisler, who gets the start here. Wisler more than held his own when he pitched at Coors Field last year giving up two runs in six innings.
It really comes down to value. The Rockies just aren't a strong enough team to lay this price considering the pitching matchup. Colorado has lost 13 of the past 19 times when playing an opponent with a below .400 winning percentage. 

I want to fade Edwin Jackson in the worst way while getting behind Max Scherzer. Of course the whole world wants to do this, too. So this is a way to get the matchup - laying 1 1/2 runs - without having to risk 3/1 odds. 
The Nationals have lost back-to-back home games with Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark. I don't see them dropping a third consecutive game with their third of three aces. 
Jackson is in my top five National League worst starter list even though he nearly threw a no-hitter during his last start. The Marlins cut Jackson this season after he had nearly a 6.00 ERA in eight games with them. The Padres are his 11th team. He has a 4.58 lifetime ERA and 1.45 WHIP. 
Scherzer is one of the five best starters in the National League and he's in typical great form with a 5-2 mark and 1.61 ERA in his last nine starts. He's struck out 81 during this time frame spanning 61 1/3 innings. 
The Nationals have won by more than one run in 11 of their last 13 victories. 

The price is right to back the underdog Mariners. So is the pitching matchup. 
Veteran Hisashi Iwakuma has made some necessary adjustments to turn his season around. He's 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA during his last four starts. He holds a 2.40 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays in five appearances. 
R.A. Dickey pitches worse in day games. This isn't a fluke since he's a knuckleballer. He also pitches worse at home where he's 2-6 with a 4.43 ERA. Dickey's daytime ERA is 4.479. He has a 4.22 career ERA versus the Mariners in 13 appearances, including five starts.
Despite playing at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, the Mariners have hit the second-most homers in the majors. Dickey has surrendered the third-most homers in the majors with 23. 
Seattle has been dominant against AL East teams going 14-6 with five straight victories versus them. The Mariners catch the Blue Jays short-handed, too.  
Star slugger Jose Bautista is on the DL and catcher Russell Martin is dealing with a knee injury and isn't expected to be available today. Backup catcher Josh Thole usually catches Dickey anyways, but Martin being out limits the Blue Jays' options. 

Detroit is 11-1 the past 12 times Michael Fulmer has taken the mound. This record isn't built on luck. Fulmer has been brilliant going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA on the season, including posting a 7-1 mark in his last 10 outings with a 0.83 ERA. 

Fulmer is strong on the road, too, where he's 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA. He has the element of surprise on his side as the White Sox have never faced him. The White Sox have trouble with power pitchers, which Fulmer is. 
Chicago is 1-7 in its last eight games, scoring one run or fewer in five of those losses. The White Sox haven't been playing well during the last six weeks going 23-39 during their past 62 games. 
Not only do the White Sox have to deal with Fulmer, but they are forced to give Jacob Turner another start with Carlos Rondon on the DL. Turner has become a hopeless cause. He's been pitching in the minors where he was 4-7 with a 4.71 ERA in 18 Triple A starts. He got called up to pitch against the Angels last Sunday and was hammered giving up eight runs on seven hits in four innings. 

The Marlins have been a nice success story so far this season. But their biggest weakness - the backend of their rotation - is likely to get exposed in this matchup. 
Tom Koehler is slated to take the mound for Miami. He entered this season having compiled a 4.58 road ERA from 2013-2015 compared to 3.51 at Marlins Park. This home/road split hasn't changed this season. Koehler is 2-3 with a 4.22 ERA when pitching at home this season and 4-5 with a 5.02 ERA on the road. So it's safe to deduct that Koehler - a No. 5 type starter to begin with - is much worse when pitching on the road. 
The Marlins were riding a four-game winning streak when Koehler last pitched, which was this past Saturday at St. Louis. He couldn't reach the fifth inning surrendering four runs on seven hits and three walks in a 5-0 loss. Only once during his past five starts has Koehler gone as much as five innings. During this four-game stretch, Koehler has giving up 29 hits in 16 hits carrying a fat 7.88 ERA. 
Miami isn't nearly a strong enough team to overcome such a bad road starter. The Marlins have been outscored by 14 runs in losing Koehler's past three away outings. 
Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff is in much better form than Koehler. If you discount a bad performance at Coors Field, Eickhoff's ERA would be 2.34 in his last nine starts. Eickhoff also carries a big home/road contrast with a 2.45 ERA at Citizens Band Park compared to 5.51 on the road this year. 

Promising Julio Urias can only hope to be as dominant as Stephen Strasburg is right now. Strasburg is more than living up to his huge ceiling as he tries to become the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to open a season 14-0. 
Strasburg has held his past four opponents to fewer than two earned runs compiling a 0.94 ERA. Strasburg has a 1.71 career ERA versus the Dodgers in four starts.   
The 19-year-old Urias has great potential, but he's going through growing pains and he doesn't have the element of surprise on his side nor pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium in this road matchup. The Nationals saw Urias less than a month ago in LA. They'll be ready for him.  

Chris Archer is on his way to a 20-lose season and has shown no signs of reverting back to last season's All-Star form. His ERA hasn't been under 4.00 since his second start and he's given up 20 homers after surrendering 19 last year. Archer is 0-6 in his last seven starts.
Archer has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts. His biggest trouble has come on the road where he's 3-6 with a 6.75 ERA. Now he's pitching in the best hitter's park in the majors against a foe that ranks third in runs and batting average. The Rays are a bad grass team losing 22 of the past 30 times they've played on a natural surface.
Tampa Bay ranks 26th in runs and 27th in batting average. The Rays have scored less than five runs in 11 of their last 15 games. They have a losing record versus lefties and are going against southpaw Jorge De La Rosa. 
De La Rosa has turned his season around so his season ERA should be discounted. De La Rosa has turned in six straight quality starts. He has a history of pitching well at Coors Field, where he's allowed just one run in his last 15 innings there. He is 3-0 this season with 1.93 ERA in day games.